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Words from the (investment) wise for the week that was (November 10 – 16, 2008)
The Oxford Dictionary defines "volatility" as "liable to change rapidly and unpredictably, especially for the worse". It's not as if investors do not know this by now, as global stock markets were again subjected to extreme fluctuations during the past week.
The red line in the chart below shows the daily percentage change in the S&P 500 Index, illustrating the severe movements stock markets have seen in recent times.
Turbulence was rife as more data pointed to the world economy facing a longer and more intense downturn than feared. Battle-weary investors were also spooked by continued financial trauma and a bleak corporate earnings outlook for at least the next few quarters, and found little comfort in hints of additional interest rate cuts.
Global stock markets were beset by angst and plunged by more than 6% over the week in the case of the MSCI Word and Emerging Markets indices, with the only safe havens for risk-averse investors being the US dollar, developed-market government bonds and gold bullion. Unsurprisingly, the US one- and three-month Treasury Bills declined to minuscule yields of 0.066% and 0.117% respectively.
Financial markets reacted badly to US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's decision to shelve plans to buy troubled mortgage assets, shifting the focus of the government's TARP bailout plan to non-bank financial institutions and consumer credit. Priorities going forward are: 1) to strengthen the capital base of the financial system; 2) to provide support for securitization of credit-card receivables, auto loans and student loans; and 3) to explore ways of reducing the risk of foreclosure.
Further dealings in Washington were concerned with the debate over whether to provide government aid to the US auto industry in what looks to be a showdown among the lame-duck US Congress, President Bush and the incoming Obama administration.
According to MarketWatch, Deutsche Bank analyst Rod Lache slashed his price target for General Motors (GM) from $4 to $0. Meanwhile, Richard Russell (Dow Theory Letters) pointed out: "Mattel (MAT) makes toy cars. Mattel is now worth more as a company than General Motors." It gives one pause for thought.
An end to the credit turmoil does not seem to be in sight as AIG (AIG) and Fannie Mae (FNM) reported huge losses, and renewed strains surfaced in the money markets after the US Treasury's decision not to buy toxic assets. The three-month dollar Libor rate ended a 23-day run of consecutive falls and edged up from 2.13% to 2.24% on Thursday and Friday.
In the spirit of the tumultuous times, a microbrewery in British Columbia is toasting the economic downturn by launching a special brand of recession-style beer, naming its brew "Bailout Bitter" in honor of the government bailouts, reported CBC News. Truly a "bitter ale for bitter times"!
Next, a tag cloud of the text of the dozens of articles I have devoured during the past week. This is a way of visualizing word frequencies at a glance. As expected, keywords such as "market", "economy" and "bank" feature prominently. "Gold" has also been receiving a fair bit of publicity as the yellow metal improved in price during the past week.
Back to Richard Russell for more wisdom from the venerable analyst: "This bear market is a bloody brute. I'm not trying to frighten my subscribers. What I am trying to do is to caution subscribers, and notify them that the lows for this bear market may still be far away. We simply do not know, nor do we have evidence to indicate that the bottom is in or near. I continue to believe that the 2002 Dow low will be closely tested, and that the test will fail in that the Dow will break through the 2002 low of 7,286."
Regarding the shorter-term outlook, Michael Panzer (Financial Armageddon) commented: "It's been said that markets do whatever is necessary to hurt the most people. That is why prices sometimes shoot higher when news flow, investor sentiment and speculative positions are skewed to the negative, and why rampant euphoria is occasionally the set-up for a violent correction. With that in mind, I still believe the path of least resistance for the equity market over the next month or two is up, in large part because bad news and increasing volatility have so many people worrying and thinking – and betting – otherwise."
A further positive for the bulls is that, according to Jeffrey Hirsch (Stock Trader's Almanac), the Dow has been up 12 out of the last 14 years during the week before Thanksgiving.
I summarized my current views in a post ("Is Stock Market Rally 'Real'?") on Friday: "Stock markets are caught between the actions of central banks, governments and the IMF frantically fending off a total economic meltdown on the one hand, and a worsening economic and corporate picture on the other. This situation has a 'no-man's-land' feel to it. By all means try to play a possible nascent rally, but be cognizant that, failing further technical and fundamental evidence, you are trading against the primary trend. Caution is still warranted!" (Also, read my post of Wednesday: "Stock Markets: Which Way José".)
I will be donning my winter woollies and visiting New York City from December 3 to 7, 2008. There are still a few gaps on my itinerary for those wishing to meet me to discuss global financial markets, financial blogging or, for that matter, any money-making ideas. If you happen to be in the Big Apple at the same time, let's get together and share a cup of coffee (or glass of wine).
Before highlighting some thought-provoking news items and quotes from market commentators, let's briefly review the financial markets' movements on the basis of economic statistics and a performance round-up.
Economic reports
Economic reports released in the US during the past week confirmed the severity of the economic recession and included the following:
• Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased by 32,000 to 516,000 for the week ended November 8. This was well above expectations and could be an early indication that labor market slack is beginning to grow more quickly.
• Falling for a fourth consecutive month, total retail sales plunged by 2.8% in October, somewhat more than expected due to tumbling gas station sales and widespread weakness elsewhere. The October drop is the largest since record keeping for the current series began in 1992.
Weak retail sales set a poor foundation for the PCE component of the fourth quarter GDP report. Asha Bangalore (Northern Trust) commented as follows: "It is important to note that the boom in consumer spending has come to a screeching halt after an extended period of spending that began in the fourth quarter of 1991 and ended with the 3.1% annualized decline in real consumer spending in the third quarter (see chart below).
"The drop in net worth of households resulting from declines in prices of homes and equity, the historically high debt levels of households and the debt service burden associated with the debt, the rising trend of the jobless rate, additional likely layoffs, and a serious lack of savings are factors that will hold back consumer spending."
Elsewhere in the world, economic reports showed an acceleration in the weakening of activity.
Notably, the 15-nation Eurozone entered its first recession since the launch of the single currency in 1999. The region's third-quarter GDP shrank by 0.2% compared to the previous quarter, following a second quarter that also saw a 0.2% decline.
Europe's largest economy, Germany, fell into a recession after government data showed that the economy contracted by 0.5% in the third quarter. This is the second consecutive quarter that the economy has shrunk after a 0.4% contraction in the second quarter.
GDP growth in the UK declined by 0.5% during the third quarter – the first official evidence that the economy is heading for recession and the first decline since 1992. The Bank of England's GDP projection for 2009 was slashed, showing a low point of close to -2.0% year on year from the previous forecast of +0.5%.
Further afield, Hong Kong became the second Asian economy, after Singapore, to officially tip into recession. Economic figures also showed worse-than-expected declines in output growth in China and Japan.
Week's economic reports
Source: Yahoo Finance, November 14, 2008.
In addition to the release of the minutes of the FOMC's October meeting on Wednesday, November 19, next week's US economic highlights, courtesy of Northern Trust, include the following:
Other reports include the NAHB Survey (November 18) and the Philadelphia Fed Survey (November 20).
Click here for a summary of Wachovia's weekly economic and financial commentary.
Source: Wall Street Journal Online, November 14, 2008.
Among developed markets, the Nikkei 225 Average (-1.4%) fared the best, whereas some of the US markets such as the Russell 2000 Index (-9.7%) and the Nasdaq Composite Index (-7.9%), Australia (-7.0%) and Canada (-5.6%) were at the bottom end of the performance rankings.
As far as emerging markets are concerned, Russia bore the full brunt of the selling pressure with a decline of 15.3%, taking its losses since the peak of about six months ago to a massive 74.1%. On the other hand, the Philippines (+3.0%) and China (+13.7%) were two of the few markets to register gains.
The Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index has bounced by 16.4% off its low of November 4 on the back of the Chinese government announcing a $586 billion economic stimulus package. This makes for an interesting-looking chart with the Index challenging its 50-day moving average and roundophobia 2,000 level. Also, the Chinese trailing price-earnings multiple has fallen from 45.9 to 14.3 – cheap for a country still seen as a top growth situation over the medium term.
The US stock markets all declined over the week as shown by the major index movements: Dow Jones Industrial Index -5.0 (YTD -35.9%) and S&P 500 Index -6.2% (YTD -40.5%). The Dow closed 321 basis points (3.9%) above its October 27 low of 8,176 and the S&P 500 24 basis points (2.8%) above its low of 849.
Click here or on the thumbnail below for a (predominantly red) market map, obtained from Finviz.com, providing a quick overview of the performance of the various segments of the S&P 500 Index over the week.
The bar chart below, also from Finviz, shows the US sector performance for the past week, and specifically how defensive sectors such as utilities and healthcare outperformed on a relative basis.
A reason for Wall Street's extreme volatility is the great uncertainty regarding the outlook for US companies' earnings. During the past week, Best Buy (BBY), the leading consumer electronics retailer, and Intel (INTC), the world's largest semiconductor company, were key contributors to analysts' concerns as both companies reduced their forecasts sharply.
Putting the stock market outlook in perspective, Jim Rogers was quoted by Bloomberg as saying: "Stocks in the West are still expensive on any historical valuation method, while bonds are going to be a terrible place to be for the next 10, 20 years". Equities in the West will be "in a trading range for years to come", he said.
Fixed-interest instruments
The two-year US Treasury Note yield declined by 10 basis points to 1.24%, the UK two-year Gilt yield dropped by 39 basis points to 1.86% and the German two-year Schatz yield fell by 18 basis points to 2.23%. However, emerging-market bonds, in general, lost ground as further deleveraging took its toll on risky assets.
But not everybody was enamored with investing in bonds. Bill King (The King Report) posed the question: "Who will buy all the bonds that will be issued throughout the known universe in coming days?"
US mortgage rates edged higher, with the 30-year fixed rate rising by 4 basis points to 6.18% and the 5-year ARM by 6 basis points to 5.98%.
The cost of buying credit insurance for US and European companies increased as shown by the wider spreads for both the CDX (North American, investment grade) Index (up from 188 to 203) and the Markit iTraxx Europe Crossover Index (up from 762 to 813).
The three-month dollar Libor rate edged up on Thursday and Friday, limiting the week's decline to 5 basis points from 2.29% to 2.24% – 124 basis points (compared to 43 basis points at the start of 2008) above the Fed's target rate of 1.0%. The TED spread (i.e. three-month dollar Libor less three-month Treasury Bills) also perked up, indicating that credit strains are not quite back to normal yet.
Over the week the US dollar gained against the euro (+0.9%), the British pound (+5.8%), the Swiss franc (+1.4%), the Canadian dollar (+3.9%), the Australian dollar (+3.7%) and the New Zealand dollar (+3.9%). However, the greenback lost ground against the Japanese yen (-1.2%) as investors liquidated assets previously funded with low-yielding currencies such as the yen.
Emerging-market currencies had a torrid time as investors shunted risky assets. Examples of losses against the US dollar include: the Brazilian real ( 6.2%), the Turkish lira (-4.8%), the South Korean won (-5.3%), the South African rand (-3.2%) and the Russian ruble (-1.2%). The ruble lost 15.4% against the US dollar over the past four months as the downturn in commodity prices negatively impacted the Russian economy.
Gold (+1.1%) bucked the trend and edged higher as some commentators punted the yellow metal as being poised for a rally.
On the other hand, West Texas Intermediate crude declined by a further 5.6% to levels last seen in the first quarter of last year. This has prompted OPEC to call an emergency "consultation" meeting on November 29 to consider a further production cut.
The graph below shows the movements for various commodities since the peak of July 2. Interestingly, the Baltic Dry Index, which is closely correlated with economic growth and demand for commodities, declined by 91.0% over the same period.
Now for a few news items and some words and charts from the investment wise that will hopefully assist in optimally managing our wealth in these troubled times. Also remember what John Kenneth Galbraith said: "The conventional view serves to protect us from the painful job of thinking."
That's the way it looks from Cape Town.
Source: McClatchy
Financial Times: Obama set to push "big bang" reform package
"Mr Emanuel brushed aside concerns that an Obama administration would risk taking on too much when it takes office in January. He said Mr Obama saw the financial meltdown as an historic opportunity to deliver the large-scale investments that Democrats had promised for years.
"Tackling the meltdown would not entail delays in plans for far-reaching energy, healthcare and education reforms when all three were also in crisis, he said. 'These are crises you can no longer afford to postpone.'
"Mr Emanuel, Mr Obama's first appointment after his emphatic victory over John McCain last week, added that Mr Obama would push hard during the 11-week transition before he is inaugurated for early assistance to the collapsing US car industry, which he described as 'an essential part of our economy'.
"His comments increased pressure on George W. Bush to approve a widely-touted $25 billion emergency package for Detroit – possibly as part of a second emergency stimulus package to stave off further decline in the rapidly deteriorating US economy.
"Sunday's comments also reinforce the impression that Mr Obama's transition economic advisory board – which includes leading lights of the Clinton era, such as Lawrence Summers and Robert Rubin – is tilting heavily towards a 'big bang' approach that would combine a short-term stimulus with large public investments to raise the longer-term US growth rate."
Source: Edward Luce, Financial Times, November 9, 2008.
Bloomberg: Paulson shifts focus of rescue to consumer lending
Click here for the full article.
Source: Simon Kennedy, Bloomberg, November 12, 2008.
BCA Research: Paulson changes focus
"Treasury Secretary Paulson has decided that purchasing troubled mortgages from banks is not the most effecitive use of the TARP funds. Instead, Paulson will shift focus to areas where problems are growing even faster. First, he will broaden the availability of TARP funds (i.e. capital injections) to non-bank financial institutions. Second, he will try to resuscitate the flow of credit to consumers by creating a liquidity facility for AAA-rated asset-backed securities (ABS), including credit card receivables, auto loans and student loans. Finally, the Treasury is also considering strategies to mitigate foreclosures that would 'require substantial government subsidies'.
"This suggests that a meaningful taxpayer-backed housing bailout package could be on the way. Bottom line: It is too early to tell whether the change in focus is positive or negative for financial markets at the margin, but government support for the economy and financial system continues to change and broaden. More taxpayer funds will likely be required before the crisis is over. Stay tuned."
Source: BCA Research – Daily Insights, November 14, 2008.
Bill King (The King Report): TARP was fatally flawed
"Hank even gave our reason for injecting capital instead of buying crappy paper – with increased capital you get more leverage to create credit, the multiplier effect.
"All those media types and Street shills should now apologize for pimping for Hank and scaring the heck out of the US public. All that they accomplished was to frighten consumers to a degree that made the US economy collapse in October.
"What disturbed the market on Wednesday is the realization that Hank's epiphany about the TARP indicates that there is much more crappy paper than initially suspected. And as we warned, $700 billion is not nearly enough taxpayer funds to bailout the crappy paper in the system.
"So estimates of the ever-increasing bailout are soaring … CNBC commentators facetiously talked about 'a rescue plan for the rescue plan'."
Source: Bill King, The King Report, November 13, 2008.
The Wall Street Journal: Fed delays its big plan to shore up money funds
"The delay, announced Monday, presents a challenge for the $3.6 trillion money-market industry, which is struggling to sell short-term debt into tight credit markets. The Fed plans to finance purchases for as much as $540 billion of the money funds' short-term debt.
"Many had expected the buying program to be up and running last week, but now the Fed says it will start on or about November 24. The funds need the money to meet investor redemptions.
"The reason for the delay appears to be the Fed's preoccupation with other bailouts and wrangling over how the money-fund program will be set up.
"Money funds have been under pressure since September, when a popular offering called the Reserve Primary Fund suffered losses tied to commercial paper from Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and 'broke the buck' with its per-share net asset value dropping below $1.
"The losses prompted massive investor redemptions across the money-fund spectrum, especially for 'prime' money funds that invest in commercial paper. A lot of commercial paper is issued by financial institutions, and buyers are worried about further bank collapses."
Source: Diya Gullapalli, The Wall Street Journal, November 11, 2008.
CNBC: Calls for bailouts
Source: CNBC, November 12, 2008.
Barry Ritholtz (The Big Picture): Why bailouts attract handout seekers
"Next pig at the trough is the heinous derivatives hedge fund, formerly-known-as-AIG. They were taken over so quickly, with so little oversight and essentially no due diligence, that the price tag on this has already doubled. What no one at the NY Fed is likely to tell you anytime soon is that this price tag is very likely to double yet again.
"Here's a forecast: After the eventual investigation and audit at Maiden Lane, someone will go to jail. (You read it here first) …
"Last month, I suggested the bailout plan might cost as much as 3 trillion dollars. At the present rate, this will scale up to 8-10 trillion dollars before long. We could even end up spending a full year's GDP before its all said and done."
Source: Barry Ritholtz, The Big Picture, November 11, 2008.
Breitbart: Fed's bailout for AIG swells to more than $150 billion
Source: Jeannine Aversa, Breitbart, November 10, 2008.
Asian Times: Who will finance America's deficit?
"Foreign net purchases of US Treasury securities peaked at a $400 billion annual rate, and will fall sharply from this level. Domestic resources to purchase Treasury securities, moreover, are thin. When Ronald Reagan took office, America's personal savings rate was 10%; today it is around 0%, although it has spiked up in recent months. Disposable income in the US now stands at slightly under $11 trillion. If the US returned to the personal saving rate of 1981, individuals would save $1 trillion a year, enough to fund the Treasury deficit, assuming that all net new portfolio investment flowed into Treasury securities. Nothing, though, would be left over for investment in anything else."
Source: Asian Times, November 12, 2008.
Forbes: Washington's $5 trillion tab
"According to CreditSights, a research firm in New York and London, the US government has put itself on the hook for some $5 trillion, so far, in an attempt to arrest a collapse of the financial system.
"The estimate includes many of the various solutions cooked up by Paulson and his counterparts Ben Bernanke at the Federal Reserve and Sheila Bair at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., as the credit crisis continues to plague banks and the broader markets.
"The Fed has taken on much of that total, including lending a cumulative $1 trillion in overnight or short-term loans since March to primary dealers through its emergency discount window and making a cumulative $1.8 trillion available through its term auction facility, a series of short-term transactions it began making available twice a month in January. It should be noted that a portion of the funds lent in these programs has been repaid and that the totals represent what has been made available.
"The Fed also took on tens of billions in debt, including $29 billion in debt of Bear Stearns, and made $60 billion of credit available to AIG. It is committing $22.5 billion to set up a special purpose vehicle to manage some of AIG's residential mortgage-backed securities, and it is financing $30 billion of a second fund to hold $70 billion of multi-sector collaterized debt obligations on which AIG wrote credit default swaps.
"The Treasury, in addition to the $700 billion raised in the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act, agreed to guarantee money market funds against losses up to $50 billion, will inject $40 billion of capital into AIG and is backing the conservatorship of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, to the tune of $200 billion.
"The FDIC, meanwhile, is guaranteeing $1.5 trillion of senior unsecured bank debt.
"Not included in the total are the Fed's long-existing discount window lending to commercial banks, the mortgage modification plan announced by regulators on Tuesday, support for the Federal Home Loan Banks and a myriad of other programs."
Source: Elizabeth Moyer, Forbes, November 12, 2008.
Financial Times: G20 leaders unite to restore global growth
"They set out an ambitious agenda for reform of the financial regulatory system and institutions such as the World Bank and International Monetary Fund and agreed to meet again in April to consider more concrete steps.
"The 20 leaders, whose countries represent more than 85% of the world's gross domestic product, also vowed to use 'fiscal measures' and monetary policy to shore up the world economy but stopped short of announcing a coordinated stimulus program.
"George W. Bush, the outgoing US president, declared the summit a 'very successful' first step but acknowledged it would fall to his successor, Barack Obama, to take the process forward.
"In a five-page communiqué setting out broad principles for reform and a detailed action plan, the G20 agreed to increase supervision of banks and credit rating agencies, tighten regulation of high-risk financial products such as credit default swaps, and 'review' executive compensation practices.
"In a blunt assessment, the communiqué blamed the crisis on, 'weak underwriting standards, unsound risk management practices, increasingly complex and opaque financial products and consequent excessive leverage'.
"Without naming the US, the leaders concluded that 'policymakers, regulators and supervisors, in some advanced countries, did not adequately appreciate and address the risks building up in the financial markets'."
Source: Financial Times, November 16, 2008.
Financial Times: World Bank in $100 billion aid push
"Ahead of an international summit on the crisis this weekend, Robert Zoellick, World Bank president, said it would be an 'error of historic proportions' to ignore the interests of developing states whose projected growth rates have been slashed in the wake of the crisis.
"As requests for aid continued to come in from around the world, he forecast the Bank would provide up to $100 billion in loans over the next three years through its International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) arm. He said the IBRD would increase loans available for developing countries to more than $35 billion this year, up from about $16 billion planned a few months ago. Last year, such aid totalled $13.5 billion.
"'You are seeing countries that had very good, sound macroeconomic programmes – Mexico, Indonesia – that are in a position where they are not at financial risk but they are worried about getting financing,' Mr Zoellick said. 'These are the types of countries – Colombia, others – that we are offering as much support as we can.'
"Underlying his concern, Mr Zoellick said global trade was projected to contract next year for the first time since 1982, while developing countries' growth, which had been expected to reach 6.4% in 2009, was now projected to be 4.5%. On Tuesday the MSCI emerging markets index fell 5.2%.
"The World Bank estimates that each percentage point decline in developing country growth rates pushes an additional 20 million people into poverty."
Source: Daniel Dombey and Michael MacKenzie, Financial Times, November 11, 2008.
Financial Times: China authorises "massive" stimulus package
"The State Council, China's cabinet, authorised $586 billion of investment on infrastructure and social welfare over the next two years, although it did not say how much of the spending would be on new projects not already in the budget.
"The government said the spending plan reflected a decision to adopt an 'active' fiscal policy to deal with the global financial crisis, while monetary policy would be 'moderately active'.
"The announcement reflects mounting anxiety in Beijing that China's economy is cooling much more quickly than was initially expected in the face of weaker international demand and a slowdown in the local property market.
"Beijing has also been under growing international pressure to take fiscal measures to boost its economy in the hope that continued strong growth can provide some counter-balance to recession in the developed world.
"The government has already cut interest rates three times, scrapped quotas for bank lending and unveiled measures to help house buyers and some exporters. However, economists said those measures had not been enough to overcome growing gloominess among companies and consumers."
Source: Geoff Dyer, Financial Times, November 9, 2008.
Forbes: Roubini – the worst is not behind us
Click here for the full article.
Source: Nouriel Roubini, Forbes, November 11, 2008.
BCA Research: Measures of reflation
"Additional monetary and fiscal support will be needed before the easing cycle ultimately comes to an end. Still, global policymakers are aggressively pulling out all the stops to shore up both investor and banking sector confidence and limit downside in their various economies (China's announcement of a massive $US586 billion fiscal package was the latest example).
"Correspondingly, we continue to watch various bond spreads closely for evidence that the credit logjam is starting to unfreeze. So far, there are encouraging signs that US Libor/OIS spreads have adjusted lower (even at longer maturities), although this measure of banking sector risk has not yet narrowed much throughout Europe and both corporate bond yields and mortgage rates are still near their peaks across the globe.
"Aside from these conventional measures, we are also watching gold prices and currency volatilities. In our opinion, gold is a great barometer of excess liquidity and a sustained rise across a broad range of currencies would suggest that reflation measures are starting to work. Similarly, a dramatic reduction in currency volatility may indicate that we are returning to a world of competitive currency devaluation as policymakers seek external support for weakness in their domestic economies. In this environment, no currency adjusts lower but significant monetary stimulus is provided.
"Bottom line: Further evidence in the weeks ahead that policymakers are finally getting ahead of the curve would prove supportive of risky assets."
Source: BCA Research, November 11, 2008.
Bloomberg: Morgan Stanley's Roach says Fed following BOJ "script"
Source: Bloomberg, November 13, 2008.
Yahoo News: Soros says deep recession inevitable, depression possible
"Highlights are:
* Said 'a deep recession is now inevitable and the possibility of a depression cannot be ruled out'.
* Said hedge funds were an integral part of the financial market bubble which now has burst.
* Said hedge funds will be 'decimated' by the current financial crisis and forced to shrink their portfolios by 50% to 75%.
* Said Fed, Treasury Department and the SEC must accept responsibility to prevent market bubbles from growing too big in future.
* Said impossible to prevent market bubbles from forming, but they can be kept within 'tolerable bounds'.
* Said financial engineering should be regulated and new products approved by regulators, and that such regulation should be a high priority of the new Obama administration.
* Said a recent IMF credit facility not large enough to stabilize markets."
Source: Yahoo News, November 13, 2008.
CEP News: RealtyTrac says US foreclosures rose 5% in October
"'We've seen sharp declines in new foreclosure filings after legislation mandating delays to the foreclosure process was signed into law in several states – most notably in California, where overall foreclosure activity was down by double-digit percentage points for the second straight month in October, and where default filings were 44% below October 2007 levels,' said James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac.
"'Despite this, October marks the 34th consecutive month where US foreclosure activity has increased compared to the prior year.'"
Source: Erik Kevin Franco, CEP News, November 13, 2008.
The New York Times: F.D.I.C. offers plan to stem foreclosures
"The source of the money, though, is in dispute. Agency officials want to use part of the $700 billion bailout of the financial industry to pay for it. But the Treasury Department is opposed to that idea.
"Testifying on Capitol Hill Friday, Neel Kashkari, the Treasury Department's assistant secretary for financial stability, said the intent of the $700 billion plan was to make investments with the hope of getting the money back. That, he said, was 'fundamentally different from just having a government spending program' that would disburse money with no chance of ever seeing any returns.
"Congressional Democrats could take up the plan when they return for a lame-duck session next week. Or the plan could set the stage for a new foreclosure prevention initiative once President-elect Barack Obama takes office in January.
"The agency's plan, posted on its Web site Friday, would guarantee 2.2 million modified loans – mainly risky loans made to borrowers with weak credit or small down payments – through the end of next year. Borrowers would get reduced interest rates or longer loan terms to make their payments more affordable.
"The F.D.I.C. said the government's backing will make the lending industry more willing to modify loans because taxpayers will absorb half of the losses if the borrower defaults again. Also, loan servicing companies, which collect and distribute mortgage payments, would be paid $1,000 for each loan they modify."
Source: Associated Press (via The New York Times), November 15, 2008.
Business Wire: Nielsen – US consumers negative on economy
"Nielsen's survey shows that when it came to predicting the end of the recession, most consumers are pessimistic. Only 18% said they believe the recession will be over within a year. The least amount of confidence was expressed by 25- to 29-year olds, with just 6% saying the recession would be over within 12 months. 52% of consumers in this age range say they do not feel the recession's end would come that soon. Similarly, only 7% of consumers age 65 and over believe the recession will be over within the year, with 63% of consumers in this age range saying they don't believe the recession will be over within 12 months.
"'Younger consumers grew up in an era of prosperity and have never really known economic challenges to this extent,' said James Russo, vice president, Marketing, The Nielsen Company. 'To them perhaps, the current economic downturn is uncharted territory. There is a pervasive feeling of uncertainty, and concern which is clearly affecting spending levels. Older consumers are understandably concerned because of the potential impact of the economic downturn on their near-term financial needs,' said Russo."
Source: Business Wire, November 10, 2008.
Asha Bangalore (Northern Trust): Retail sales – significant slump in consumer spending
Source: Asha Bangalore, Northern Trust – Daily Global Commentary, November, 14, 2008.
Bloomberg: Ross says GM bankruptcy filing would be a "total mess"
Source: Bloomberg, November 14, 2008.
Paul Kedrosky (Infectious Greed): The world in four presidents and five economic factoids
Source: Paul Kedrosky, Infectious Greed, November 12, 2008.
Financial Times: Hedge fund chiefs blame the system for financial crisis
"The statements by George Soros and others suggested that hedge fund executives and lawmakers were reaching a consensus in the wake of the credit crisis that the status quo, in which the funds largely escape scrutiny, was no longer tenable.
"'We have moved out of the mode of 'to be or not to be',' said Democrat Eleanor Holmes Norton on the inevitability of new regulations.
"The hedge fund managers received a mostly warm reception at the hearing of the House Committee on Oversight and Government reform – in stark contrast to the tough questioning that greeted Dick Fuld, the Lehman Brothers chief executive.
"But the hedge fund managers nevertheless emphasised that they were not culpable in the financial meltdown. Mr Soros pinned blame on the 'financial system itself', while James Simons, president of Renaissance Technologies, criticised credit ratings agencies, which he said had facilitated the sale of 'sows ears … as silk purses' through 'fanciful' ratings of mortgage-backed securities.
"Kenneth Griffin of Citadel went further, saying he did not believe greater regulation of hedge funds was required and that the major failures had occurred in regulated institutions. 'We have not seen hedge funds as a focal point of carnage.'
"Using a less aggressive tone than in previous hearings, Henry Waxman, the Democratic chairman of the committee, suggested hedge funds' rapid growth and high leverage posed potential risks to the broader economy, but he stopped short of blaming the funds, or their trading practices, for the current crisis.
"The congressman did, however, question 'special tax breaks' that allow managers to treat the majority of their earnings as capital gains, which are taxed at a rate as low as 15%.
"Almost all of the hedge fund managers generally agreed that they should be subject to higher taxes, except for Mr Griffin who defended the current model …
"John Paulson, of Paulson & Co, whose bearish views on the mortgage bubble made him the most highly paid fund manager last year, according to some calculations, said his pay reflected returns to investors."
Source: Stephanie Kirchgaessner and Henny Sender, Financial Times, November 13, 2008.
Bloomberg: Bloomberg sues Fed to force disclosure of collateral
"The lawsuit is based on the US Freedom of Information Act, which requires federal agencies to make government documents available to the press and the public, according to the complaint. The suit, filed in New York, doesn't seek money damages.
"'The American taxpayer is entitled to know the risks, costs and methodology associated with the unprecedented government bailout of the US financial industry,' said Matthew Winkler, the editor-in-chief of Bloomberg News, a unit of New York-based Bloomberg LP.
"The Fed has lent $1.5 trillion to banks, including Citigroup and Goldman Sachs Group, through programs such as its discount window, the Primary Dealer Credit Facility and the Term Securities Lending Facility. Collateral is an asset pledged to a lender in the event that a loan payment isn't made.
"The Fed made the loans under 11 programs in response to the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression. The total doesn't include an additional $700 billion approved by Congress in a bailout package."
Source: Mark Pittman, Bloomberg, November 7, 2008.
Markit: CDS update: gross inaccuracies
"Figures published by the DTCC, only made available in the last two weeks, give a truer picture. The table below, for the week ending November 7, shows that the total net notional outstanding – which offsets long and short positions within the same institution, thus giving a more accurate figure of risk – is only a small fraction of the total gross notional. This is because the ISDA survey counts the same position several times and doesn't take into account aggregate risk. Gross notional in the CDS market has itself decreased significantly in recent months. This is due to compression exercises conducted by Markit and others, which allow offsetting trades to be torn up.
"The latest figures show that total net notional outstanding fell by $229 billion from the previous week. Most of this was due to a $200 billion reduction in single name CDS exposure. The fact that gross single name exposure rose by $30 billion highlights the inadequacy of this metric as a risk indicator. Clearly, investors have been entering into offsetting trades to reduce their risk exposure, a fact not captured by the gross measure, which overstates exposure.
"Drilling down into the single names, the DTCC data shows that the Republic of Ireland is the subject of the biggest increase in net risk exposure this week. The sovereign was the first in the eurozone to go into recession, though it has since been followed by Germany and the region as a whole. Its credit profile worsened significantly after it guaranteed its banking sector and the dire economic news has continued to flow. It looks set for a deep and prolonged period of contraction and the domestic banks will be reliant on the government guarantee for funding."
Source: Gavan Nolan, Markit (via FT Alphaville), November 14, 2008.
Bloomberg: Faber says corporate bonds "more attractive" than stocks
Source: Bloomberg, November 10, 2008.
Bespoke: Bypass the depression and head straight for 1907
"Sound familiar? The above passage is from an article on the NPRs website titled 'Lesson's From Wall Street's Panic of 1907'. 101 years later, the US economy finds itself in an eerily similar situation, and following today's [Thursday] lunchtime plunge in the Dow, the index is now closing in on 1907 to be on pace for the index's worst year ever."
Source: Bespoke, November 13, 2008.
Financial Times: Opaque earnings
"'How can investors value a stock if they don't have the foggiest what the 'e' in p/e will be?' is a common refrain.
"Data from Thomson Reuters supports this 'confusion hypothesis'. Now that most companies have reported their third-quarter results we can see how analysts' expectations for earnings compared with the actual outcome.
"While results for all sectors were worse than forecast in January, some industries have been easier to gauge.
"The expected third-quarter earnings growth for healthcare of 11% was, under the circumstances, not much different to the 7.3% outcome.
"Financials, on the other hand, moved over the same period from expected growth of 46% to minus 106.5%. Strikingly, a decline of 'only' 61% for financials was expected as recently as the beginning of October, suggesting analysts have been scrambling to keep up with the fast-deteriorating prospects.
"The finger-in-the-air nature of the forecasting is further illustrated by the eerily palindromic nature of the number of financial companies that beat, missed, or matched expectations: 45%, 10% and 45%, respectively.
"So, an important question for investors is: are we close to a point when even perceptions of earnings clarity may improve?
"Sadly not, because so many statements with the third-quarter reports have been laden with bosses bemoaning the murky economic outlook.
"Bulls, however, may point to a possible benefit of such gloom-mongering. The longer the uncertainty goes on, the more one would expect shell-shocked analysts to overdo the pessimism.
"That could pave the way for some pleasant surprises."
Source: Jamie Chisolm, Financial Times, November 12, 2008.
Blogging Stocks: Are market extremes calling a bottom?
"'As a bear market unfolds, investor emotions travel down a slippery slope of anxiety, fear and panic. And it is just this kind of emotional upheaval that creates some of the extremes that we are seeing now.
"'Media headlines containing the word 'depression' and images like this are appearing more this year than in any year since the 1930s.
"'Stock market volatility, as measured by the number of 1% daily closing moves in the S&P 500 Index, is near a record high. The percentage of stocks on the NYSE hitting new 12-month lows is higher than any previous record level during the past 50 years.
"'Yet, bear markets bottoms occur right in the midst of fear and panic – at the point of maximum gloom. And for consumers, it's hard to get much gloomier: In addition, more bear markets have ended in October than in any other month.
"'On Wall Street, fear and market volatility go hand in hand. However, this is not necessarily bad news. Day to day volatility in the S&P 500 is currently at its second highest level in 70 years – exceeded only by the bear market bottom in 2002.
"'Of particular interest is the fact that all past 'peak' levels have occurred during years in which important market bottoms have appeared.
"'Downside leadership is also hitting new extremes as this bear has tightened its grip. On October 10, a record 88% of stocks on the NYSE hit new 12-month lows – 14 percentage points greater than the previous record set on May 29, 1962. Once again, this is not necessarily bad news!
"'We've identified the days when more than 50% of the NYSE stocks have fallen to new 12-month lows and we've tracked the percentage gain and/or loss in the S&P 500 that followed. Not one instance saw the market lower 3 months and 6 months later.
"'While there isn't much precedent – only 4 periods before this have seen such extremes since 1962 – this still offers hope that there is light at the end of the tunnel.
"'Meanwhile our technical 'pressure factor' indentifies overbought or oversold extremes in the market, which typically occur at points of maximum optimism or pessimism. Historically, oversold levels such as this usually precede some type of market bottom.
"'This indicator has proven to be reliable even for short-term bottoms during prolong bear markets like 2000-02. On October 22, the Pressure Factor hit its fifth most oversold level in the past 40 years.
"'Such prior extremes occurred in October 1987, March 2003, and February 2007. Following each of these oversold readings the market moved upward on average for a 13% gain after 3 months and 17% after 6 months.
"'The odds are high we are either near (or past) a market bottom … but only time will tell how important this bottom will be.'"
Source: Steven Halpern, Blogging Stocks, November 10, 2008.
David Fuller (Fullermoney): Stock markets are cheap, but no base formations yet
"However while deleveraging continues and more of America's best known companies face insolvency, we have reason to think we are living through an epochal event. As Richard Russell points out: 'Mattel makes toy cars. Mattel is now worth more as a company than General Motors.' It gives one pause for thought.
"I often feel confident in my analysis, sometimes justifiably so, and sometimes naïvely or rashly so. Today, I have far more questions than answers. An important reason for this is that too many of the price trends intrigue rather than entice me. I see the climactic action in many charts, but not the base formations to support sustained recoveries. The performance of many financial stocks remains a concern.
"Looking ahead, I suspect we will not be able to fault our politicians for effort. However there is certainly no unanimity regarding the solutions."
Source: David Fuller, Fullermoney, November 11, 2008.
Barry Ritholtz (The Big Picture): Is the US market cheap?
Source: Barry Ritholtz, The Big Picture (via Mike Panzner), November 14, 2008.
Bloomberg: Jim Rogers – global stock market rout may continue
"'Stocks in the West are still expensive on any historic valuation method,' while 'bonds are going to be a terrible place to be for the next 10, 20 years', Rogers, chairman of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings, said at a conference in Seoul today. Equities in the West will be 'in a trading range for years to come,' he said.
"'I have started going back into the markets; that does not means it's the bottom,' Rogers said. His purchases since mid-October include commodities and equities in China and Taiwan, as well as 'a Korea stock', he said, without giving details.
"'We may be hitting 'a' bottom,' Rogers said. 'I don't know if it's 'the' bottom.'
"Rogers continues to favor commodities as an investment as fundamentals are 'unimpaired' amid a global liquidation of assets, he said. 'You will see that stocks have gone down more so far than commodities. That will continue as far as I'm concerned.'"
Source: Kyung Bok Cho, Bloomberg, November 12, 2008.
Richard Russell (Dow Theory Letters): Tread with caution
"First, the Dow is not selling at historic great values since the dividend yield on the Dow is only 3.88% – still far below the classic 6% seen at great bottoms.
"The Lowry's studies have been invaluable in assessing the situation. I have followed the Lowry's studies for half a century, and currently I don't see indications of a major bear market bottom in their statistics. Normally, prior to a major bottom Lowry's Selling Pressure Index embarks on an extended decline – an indication that the inventory of stocks for sale has been exhausted. Once the sellers have completed their selling, a bear market is ready to form a bottom. Unfortunately, Lowry's Selling Pressure Index (supply) is currently still in the vicinity of its recent record high. Therefore, we know that potential selling is far from exhausted, despite the recent series of 90% down-days on the NYSE.
"I'm not trying to frighten my subscribers. What I am trying to do is to caution subscribers, and notify them that the lows for this bear market may still be far away. We simply do not know, nor to we have evidence to indicate that the bottom is in or near."
Source: Richard Russell, Dow Theory Letters, November 11, 2008.
Bespoke: Breaking the back of Buffett
Source: Bespoke, November 13, 2008.
Bespoke: Biggest increases and decreases in country P/E ratios
"Just five countries of the 84 on our list have seen their P/E ratios actually increase this year. Unfortunately, the US is one of the five. During bear markets, P/Es usually contract because the price (P) of the index falls more than earnings (E). Since P/Es have increased (albeit slightly) in the US in 2008, it means earnings have fallen even more than price."
Source: Bespoke, November 10, 2008.
Bespoke: Comparing valuations in China and the US
"So even though China's equity markets have declined much more than the US on a percentage basis, earnings have held up much better. China is still considered an emerging market and is experiencing growth of 8% or so. Growth stocks generally have much higher valuations than value stocks, and it's surprising to see China's P/E at 14.31, or 6 points lower than the S&P 500's P/E of 20.21."
Source: Bespoke, November 11, 2008.
Bespoke: Dollar bull has more legs
Source: Bespoke, November 10, 2008.
Bloomberg: Ruble devaluation concern triggers stock plunge, rate increase
"'They're going to move the line in the sand back a little bit, where they hope they can defend it,' while resisting a formal devaluation that would erode confidence in ruble deposits, Chris Weafer, chief strategist at UralSib Financial Corp. in Moscow, said in an interview today. 'If people start to lose confidence in the banking system, we could have a massive run on the banks as we saw twice in the nineties, and then the game is up.'
"Russia drained 19% of its currency reserves to stem a 17% slide in the ruble against the dollar since the start of August, prompting warnings of possible downgrades from Fitch Ratings and Standard & Poor's.
"The central bank is raising rates, at a time when the US, Europe, China and India are cutting to help unlock credit markets, after a 1% slide in the ruble against the euro-dollar basket today. Investors sold the Russian currency after central bank Chairman Sergey Ignatiev said the ruble has a 'tendency toward weakening', during a televised press conference yesterday."
Source: Laura Cochrane and Emma O'Brien, Bloomberg, November 11, 2008.
Richard Russell (Dow Theory Letters): Gold is being manipulated
"It's amazing and beyond coincidence the way gold rallies, and then immediately is hammered down below 740. I know that there are huge short positions in gold on the COMEX. I'm no longer a skeptic on the 'gold is being manipulated' claim. Somebody is selling gold every time gold rallies toward a breakout above 870 or more properly gold at 840. I don't think the manipulators (if there are such people) can keep it up."
Source: Richard Russell, Dow Theory Letters, November 13, 2008.
Richard Russell (Dow Theory Letters): Gold in early accumulation period
Source: Richard Russell, Dow Theory Letters, November 10, 2008.
Leon Esterhuizen (RBC Capital Markets) Gold prices poised for gains
"He points out that, historically, banking crises have tended to be hugely deflationary, as interest rates are cut aggressively and for extended periods.
"'We expect the Federal Reserve to ease further in order to turn market sentiment away from pricing in low or no growth, which would be reflected in a low long bond yield.'
"Ultimately, this would be likely to lead to dollar weakness – which is beneficial to US exports but heightens the risk of steep inflation, Mr Esterhuizen says.
"'If economic growth rapidly rebounds, the gamble will have paid off. If not, be prepared for an even bigger collapse in a year or two from now. Given current conditions, the US has little option but to take that bet.'
"He adds that Europe will converge with the US in terms of cutting rates, strengthening the case for an extended period of rock-bottom real rates.
"'Finally, oil could play a key role, as recent efforts by producers to reduce output might leave crude prices higher than many expect.
"'If this is the case, inflation will most certainly be rising in an environment where rates are being cut. This is gold price heaven – declining real rates or even negative real rates will drive the gold price much higher.'"
Source: Leon Esterhuizen, RBC Capital Markets (via Financial Times), November 11, 2008.
Commodity Online: Why gold mines are collapsing in Zimbabwe
"Reports say several gold mines in Zimbabwe have stopped operations as a result of inadequate capital. Metallon Gold, the largest gold producer in Zimbabwe with four mines, has since stopped production.
"The company has also been hit by massive turnover of key staff after it failed to pay salaries for the past two months. Metallon chief executive Collin Gura confirmed that production at his company was at a standstill.
"Gold miners say they cannot continue with operations because the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) has not paid their foreign currency revenue from gold sales. RBZ, through its subsidiary, Fidelity Printers, is the sole marketer of gold in the country.
"Gold mining companies are obliged by law to sell their gold to the central bank, but for the past two years it has been falling behind on payments 'due in terms of official policy to be made four days after delivery'."
Source: Commodity Online, November 7, 2008.
Financial Times: IEA warns of new oil supply crunch
"The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that cuts and delays in investment that were prompted by the fall in oil prices and the credit crunch had put the world 'on a bad path'.
"Fatih Birol, chief economist at the IEA, said: 'We hear almost every day about a project being postponed. This is a major problem.'
"Last year, $390 billion was invested in oil and gas exploration and production, one of the highest amounts in recent years. Yet it still fell short of the $450 billion the IEA said would be needed in both sectors.
"Oil prices have fallen as economies have struggled in the credit crisis and demand has dropped, especially in the developed world."
Source: Carola Hoyos, Ed Crooks and Javier Blas, Financial Times, November 12, 2008.
Financial Times: Brazil oilfield may house 100 billion barrels
"Mr Lima said just the pre-salt oilfields already under concession may contain between 50 billion and 80 billion barrels and that the total area could surpass 100 billion barrels.
"If so, the new fields would propel Brazil up the world league table of oil producing nations. Brazil currently has reserves of about 12.6 billion barrels (or 14.4 billion barrels of oil equivalent if natural gas is included), according to a statistical review produced by BP of the UK, a standard industry reference.
That compares with 79.4 billion barrels of oil in Russia, for example, or 101.5 billion in Kuwait, according to BP.
"'Dimensions are so big that we still don't have a good vision of what this means for Brazil,' Mr Lima told reporters in Rio de Janeiro."
Source: Jonathan Wheatley, Financial Times, November 7, 2008.
Ifo: Economic climate for the euro area
"The economic climate indicator has fallen in the fourth quarter of 2008 in nearly all countries of the euro area and is now clearly below its long-term average. The most unfavourable economic climate prevails in Spain and Ireland. The assessments of the current economic situation have worsened this time especially in Italy, Belgium, France, Austria and Germany. The expectations for the coming six months remain clearly pessimistic in most countries, in Ireland, Portugal and the Netherlands they have further deteriorated.
"In the course of the coming six months a strong decline in the rate of inflation is anticipated. Key interest rates will be lowered further during the coming six months in the opinion of the World Economic Survey (WES) experts; capital market interest rates are also expected to decline.
"In comparison to the euro, the US dollar is assessed as undervalued despite the increase in value that has occurred. In the coming six months a further recovery of the US dollar is expected. After having increased in value the Japanese yen is now seen as only slightly undervalued. The British pound is regarded as properly valued vis-à-vis the euro."
Source: Ifo, November 12, 2008.
BBC News: German economy now in recession
"The fall in economic output, driven by falls in exports, was greater than many analysts had expected.
"'This confirms the German economy is in a marked slump,' said Klaus Schruefer at SEB. 'We will definitely get a further contraction in the fourth quarter, probably of a similar order,' he added."
Source: BBC News, November 13, 2008.
BCA Research: UK Housing bubble – rapid deflation to persist
"Yesterday's release showed that the RICS survey came in at -82% for October (up only modestly from -84%). Although the release shows evidence of flattening off, it is doing so at historically depressed reading, indicating that the vast majority of realtors continue to expect a steady rot in prices in the coming months. Our UK housing model echoes this sentiment, suggesting that house price deflation will level off over the next six months, albeit at a whopping -12% YoY rate.
"In short, the bubble has much further to deflate, given that the rise in the house price-to-income ratio was much larger in the UK earlier this decade than any other economy in the developed world. The once virtuous circle has clearly now turned vicious and will lead to dramatic knock-on effects for the consumer and overall domestic economy in the months ahead. Already, sentiment has been shattered (due to declining housing and financial wealth as well as rising unemployment) and consumers have begun to retrench.
"Bottom line: Last week's aggressive 150 basis point rate cut by the BoE will be followed by significantly more easing in the months ahead. Stay overweight gilts within a global hedged fixed income portfolio."
Source: BCA Research, November 12, 2008.
James Pressler (Northern Trust): Is Beijing's $586 billion "new deal" stimulus plan really "new"?
"The actual economic activities cited by this package center around the further development of infrastructure – rail and highway connections, housing construction and earthquake recovery support – mostly in the western provinces. Considering how underdeveloped that part of the country is relative to wealthier eastern coastal regions, such investment seems a worthy cause and very much in line with the government's long-term plan to spread development to areas that have so far been left out. However, lost within the blurry figures is how much of this 'new spending' is actually a repackaging of programs already queued up for implementation, with their costs now announced as 'stimulus'. Details are sketchy, but there seems to be a suspicious amount of overlap between previously announced projects and new, stimulative projects. In short, not all of this program is 'new'.
"There is, perhaps, a 'deal' within this package, regardless of how much spending is actually 'new'. The market rallies throughout Asia were not based solely on hopes that those countries would benefit from China's extra economic activity. There is also a growing feeling that China will be able to avoid an economic hard landing and a prolonged period of weak growth. If this fiscal package shores up the waning confidence of foreign investors, it could keep investment flowing into the country and prevent growth from taking a precipitous dive – a nice way to maintain the virtuous cycle of investment, development and growth.
"There is one lingering concern we have about today's announcement, however, and it is the same concern we have about any country's stimulus package – where is the money to pay for this? If it considers liquidating any of its many US-backed assets or no longer buying as much of our debt, this New Deal would be a bad deal for the US."
Source: James Pressler, Northern Trust – Daily Global Commentary, November 10, 2008.
Times Online: CLSA's Fishwick says that China may be heading for a severe economic slowdown
"The grim assessment from Eric Fishwick, chief economist at CLSA, an Asia specialist brokerage firm, argues that it will be impossible for China to achieve anything like the growth rates it is presently projecting for next year.
"Even with aggressive government measures, growth in 2009 could plunge to 5.5%, he said.
"The super-bearish forecast depends on certain weak signals that may emerge in the fourth quarter of 2008, but comes amid reports from the Chinese electricity sector that suggest the country's mighty manufacturing engine-room is already sputtering badly.
"More than 70% of the electricity generated in China is consumed by industry and according to reports, monthly national power output in October fell for the first time in a decade.
"Traders in Singapore said it could be a slump that would have a huge negative impact on global commodity demand: ferrous and nonferrous metal-processing industries are among the heaviest consumers of electricity in China and it is their slowdown that is reflected in the drop in power usage.
"In the report circulated to investors yesterday, Mr Fishwick dismissed the idea that the authorities in Beijing would be able to manipulate the economy as effectively as other analysts believe.
"Not all analysts share CLSA's bleak assessment. Goldman Sachs issued a report on the Chinese economy yesterday that told investors to expect it to stabilise in the second half of 2009, with a potentially strong positive effect on stocks.
"Deng Tishun, Goldman's China strategist, said that the index of Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong could rise more than 50% next year."
Source: Christine Seib, Times Online, November 8, 2008.
US Global Investors: Sharp decline in Chinese power output
Source: US Global Investors – Weekly Investor Alert, November 14, 2008.
Bryan Crowe (Northern Trust): Hong Kong goes to recessionland
Source: Bryan Crowe, Northern Trust – Daily Global Commentary, November, 14, 2008.
Prison Planet: Gerald Celente predicts revolution, food riots, tax rebellions by 2012
Click here for the full article.
Source: Prison Planet, November 13, 2008.
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3 comments to Words from the (investment) wise for the week that was (November 10 – 16, 2008)
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subset: commoncrawl


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Christina Oninngnak
After school I work at the coop, I am a supervisor. My summer job was also at the coop. My dream is of becoming a police officer. After school I cook. I know how to make cookies, wraps, grilled-cheese, smoothie, and macaroni. My hobbies at home are sewing, and cooking. I made a parka for myself and I didn't like it. I cook everything sometimes. Inuit cultural activities I like are berry picking. I like to go with my family, we make suvallik with our picked berries. Inuit foods I like to eat are frozen caribou, and fried mattak (beluga). I go fishing to Aanniajulik with my families. I wish that I could do train ride in Aupaluk and go to other villages. I live in the village of Aupaluk, which is 59° 18′ N 69° 36′ W. I have lived in Aupaluk all my life. Aupaluk is important because it's my home and all my family lives here in Aupaluk. I would like to get more new friends from going on to this trip this summer!


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Blacksmiths Motor Inn. The Faulty Towers of Masterton
I can't complain about the service. There wasn't any.
I visited the above website and found this palce to look very pleasant- the wife had attended a conference there and agreed that it was very nice, so I booked a night on-line.
We arrived in the snow (yes- actual snow in Masterton) looking forward to a couple of rounds of drinks by the fireside in the bar.
We found a note on the locked door giving a phone number to call- we had committed the sin of not giving an arrival time (nobody asked) The time was 4pm...
After a few minutes a car pulled up and we were admitted. Here we told that the restaurant was closed. The bar never opened despite there being a couple of dozen 'guests' on site and all that was left of the fire was a smell of woodsmoke. The whole 'reception' area was freezing
We were shown to a room (very nice, I must admit) and left to our own devices. In fact, that was the last time we saw a staff member- nobody showed at the front desk come checkout time, so I tossed the keys on the desk and departed never to return. A conversation with another disgruntled customer informed that this shambles had been going on for at least two days.
If you are reading this (of course you are!) I advise you to seek lodging elsewhere.
I have travelled New Zealand extensivly over the years, staying at everything from camping ground cabins to five-star hotels. Never before have I had the misfortune to encounter staff with such a pitiful understanding of the 'hospitality' industry. A quick look at the images in the above link will show you that this is physically an up-market establishmnet- not some seedy backpackers, so the pathetic service is all the more of a puzzle.
Tommorrow I will tell you of the GOOD parts of the holiday had in Napier!
In reply to my email of complaint:
> I'm sorry to hear you were so dissappointed with your stay. I accept
> your points as being valid. Unfortunately the Long weekend did creep up
> on us and when we did our rosters two weeks prior we had failed to build
> in that the weekend was a long one - consequently we were unable to
> "regig" staff at the last minute. The room tariffs also were left at the
> special rate of $99, which would have been set at our standard rate of
> $139 for the Sunday of a long weekend.
> Normally Sunday is the quiestest day of the week for us and bookings for
> both accommodation and restaurant are few if any - that is why we choose
> to close the restaurant and bar on that day. However I appreciate that
> on a long weekend people who are out and about want to beable to dine
> and have a drink. Given this, I accept your complaint, I apologise and
> we will certainly be more vigilant in the future as to determining when
> the long weekends fall so we can make these services available to
> guests. I also agree that the website is not as clear as it should be
> and I am in the process of getting the web designer to change it as a
> result.
> For the dissappointment you have experieced and as a way of an apology I
> would like to offer you a complimentary nights stay with us again, so we
> may have the opportunity to give you a better experience. If you would
> be good enough to email me your postal address I will put a voucher in
> the mail for you (or family or friends) to use at some point in the future.
> My apologies once again.
[Name deleted by myself]
> Owner
My email below:
>> A /very/ disappointing stay at your hotel. This trip was a weekend
>> away for my wife and I- our first weekend away without children in a
>> long time.
>> It wasn't just a night's accomodation whilst travelling- we were
>> only 35 minutes from home.
>> The front door locked at 4pm, the bar and restaurant closed- I would
>> never have booked in knowing these facilities were unavailable.
>> The website has proved totally misleading regarding the facilties (all
>> day, seven days a week dining, to mention one fact) While we were
>> advised that
>> The restaurant was closed- no explaination offered- nothing was
>> mentioned about the bar. We mistakenly assumed that this would open in
>> the evening.
>> The fact that it was a freezing night made the matter worse. The night
>> in question was not on we would have chosen to go out in!
>> Then on the Monday morning the reception was unmanned (not to mention
>> unheated) as myself and others arrived to check out.
>> We booked on the strength of the appealing photographs on your
>> website: http://www.tullochlodge.co.nz/
>> To have well-appointed establishment is is no avail if you cannot
>> offer the minimal standards of customer service of having the
>> reception staffed- much
>> less the kitchen and bar.
>> I believe a refund is in order.
I call that a satisfactory conclusion- actually, it is bloody refreshing to get a full & frank apology for a change!


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KULA VOLCANIC UNESCO GLOBAL GEOPARK (Turkey)
"The region that was 'fire-born'"
Celebrating Earth Heritage
Kula Volcanic UNESCO Global Geopark is situated in the Aegean Region of Turkey, at Western Anatolia within Manisa Province. The area starts from 200 m in Salihli Town and rises up to 600 m mean elevation in Kula Town. Kula has Mesothermal climate with hot dry summer and cold, rainy winters with rare snow.
Kula Volcanic UNESCO Global Geopark has a complex geology due to the active tectonic regime in the Aegean extensional province, which is one of the most seismically active and rapidly deforming regions in the world dominated by converging plates, subduction collision related geodynamic process. Kula Volcanic UNESCO Global Geopark rests on the metamorphic basement of the Menderes massif and the ophiolitic mélange units of the İzmir-Ankara Zone, a remnant of the Tethyan Ocean. It represents 200 million years of Earth history from Palaeozoic metamophics to Holocene volcanism. Kula is the youngest volcanic region in Turkey. The Quaternary volcanism in the area formed in three eruptive phases (1.1 million years to 300.000 and 15.000 years ago). The outstanding volcanic structures of the UNESCO Global Geopark area are well known since antique times where the great ancient Greek Geographer Strabo (63 BC-24 AD) in his majestic book "Geographica" named Kula as "KATAKEKAUMENE" (fire-born) because of the coal-black lava.
Sustaining local Communities
Kula Volcanic UNESCO Global Geopark has established a range of facilities and supply services in terms of geotourism and geo-education infrastructure. "Kula Geopark Visitor Centre KATAKEAUMENE" serves as information centre for tourists and as a Natural History Museum for Geo-education activities. It has a bilingual website and leaflets, and more than 12 km of well-organized geotrails connecting the most outstanding geosites, equipped with information panels. It offers guided tours for tourists, indoor and outdoor geo-education activities for school classes. In order to enhance these services and promote scientific research, "JARUM-Geopark Research Centre" was established in collaboration with the Celal Bayar University and the "JPBB-Geopark Municipal Union" and to finance the UNESCO Global Geopark based sustainable local development activities. The UNESCO Global Geopark founded the "GeoCycle" a bicycle society to combine sportive activity with geotourism.
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Tuesday, December 24, 2013
Cheers to Half-Price Bottles of Wine at G's Midtown Every Monday!
Beat the Monday blues and join
G's Midtown
for half-price bottles of wine. Every Monday, all wines served by the glass are half price when purchased by the bottle from 5-11 p.m. While you are sipping on that perfect pinot, order dinner from their new menu. G's Iron Skillet Mac and Steak is one of my favorites! With top sirloin steak, iron skillet mac & cheese, haricot vert and herb butter, it's no wonder this is a signature item!
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Emily Robinson
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A driver was shocked to find two 5cm-long nails embedded in his car's tyres while parked along Harvey Crescent in Simei on Friday (Sep 20).
Stomper N alerted Stomp to the incident that happened to her father, Mr Leong.
Mr Leong told Stomp in a phone interview that he had parked his car at Harvey Crescent at about 9.30am and went to see his friend.
When he came back to the car at about 10.15pm, he decided to check his tyres before driving off.
He was horrified to find the two nails embedded in his front-left and back-left tyres. He noted that the left side of his car was close to the pavement while the right side was exposed to the road.
"I was not parked on any traffic enforcement line or causing any obstruction," said Mr Leong.
"Any resident could have gone around my car.
"I feel like if any of the residents had a problem with drivers parking there, they could have simply left a not rather than compromising their safety."
He told Stomp he has since made a police report.
He hopes by sharing this, it will warn other drivers to stay alert.


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Child in Mind Ltd
CPD & Workshops
CPD & Workshops
Continuing Professional Development is a requirement of registration for many professions. Through engagement in CPD activities we evidence our ability and commitment to broaden our knowledge base and enhance the skills required to keep our practice current and up to date.
At Child in Mind we regularly evaluate and update our trainings to ensure they remain current, inspiring, and above all meet the needs of participants. The trainings listed below run from our dedicated training venue in Eccles, Manchester and are open for bookings.
If you are interested in running any of our trainings in-house for your organisation, or you would like us to design a bespoke training to meet the specific needs of your staff do get in touch with Jayne to discuss your requirements.
Therapeutic Play Skills for the Helping Professions
Therapeutic Play Skills for the Helping Professions
4th - 5th May 2020
Therapeutic Play Skills are essential if we are to truly understand the emotional world of the children we are working with. This 2-day training will equip professionals with the skills necessary to build positive therapeutic relationships with children. You will learn how to facilitate the child's emotional expression, and perhaps more importantly to communicate your understanding of this expression enabling the process of healing to begin.
£180 per person
Attachment & Developmental Trauma
Attachment & Developmental Trauma
30th - 31st March 2020
Attachment is the deep and enduring emotional connection established between a child and his caregiver during the first few years of life. If all goes well that relationship is positive and sets the template for the development of future healthy relationships. However, sadly more and more children are not experiencing caregiving that is loving and responsive to their needs in those crucial early years. This training will provide professionals with a working knowledge of attachment theory, together with a solid understanding of the impact of developmental trauma on children's social and emotional development.
£180 per person
Understanding Sensory Processing Difficulties
Understanding Sensory Processing Difficulties
6th - 7th April 2020
An understanding of sensory processing difficulties is essential for all professionals working with children and young people. This 2-day training will equip you with the knowledge and skills needed to recognise potential sensory processing difficulties, and to recognise the associated behaviour as an indicator of arousal system dysregulation. More importantly you will learn how to support the children and young people you work with to engage and succeed in life.
£180 per person
Foundations for Attachment - Therapeutic Parenting Course
Foundations for Attachment - Therapeutic Parenting Course
Day 1: 9th January 2020
Day 2: 16th January 2020
Day 3: 23rd January 2020
Day 4: 30th January 2020
Day 5: 6th February 2020
Child in Mind is pleased to be offering this quality therapeutic parenting programme. Foundations for Attachment was written by Dr Kim Golding, and is a DDP informed programme based on the model designed by Dan Hughes. Both have been instrumental in our training to deliver this course.
This programme is free at the point of access to adoptive parents and special guardians. Funding is accessed through the Adoption Support Fund, applied for by your Local Authority.
What our customers are saying
What our customers are saying
The content was fascinating. The trainer was immediately available for us all.
Beautiful room and environment, and a fabulous lunch
Sara - Therapeutic Play Skills
What our customers are saying
What our customers are saying
So much to take in - great delivery style, well paced and fab handouts.
This will certainly help in my work with children and parents.
Cathy - Attachment & Developmental Trauma training
What our customers are saying
What our customers are saying
Open learning, well paced. Very relevant to my practice.
All Social Workers need this training.
Sharon - Understanding Sensory Processing Difficulties
What our customers are saying
What our customers are saying
I'm so glad I attended this training.
Great case examples and lots of hands on learning, which I love.
This training will definitely add to my practice.
Sandra - Therapeutic Play Skills
What our customers are saying
What our customers are saying
I feel more connected to my child, and I am starting to see a reduction in some behaviours already.
I feel less isolated and frustrated
Therapeutic Parenting Group - Parent


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This post is going to be short because I have two of my favorite ladies coming to visit me this weekend and I CANNOT be more excited 🙂 I have a laundry list of things to do, but little time to get it done!
I'm honestly not sure what I've been doing and why I've been so MIA from this blog lately, but I am staying busy and still loving it up here. Woke up this morning to work out and I was actually cold going to the gym!!! It was 65 degrees at 6:15am and the high today is supposed to 80 with no humidity. I don't think this is common for August, but I will certainly take it.
Dating scene isn't going any better, but that's ok, I honestly don't have time for it right now. I think I mentioned before that I got on a new app and honestly I think I did it more for the comic relief.
Few of the more comical conversations:
Dude Man #1: "Let's hang out asap, bring your dog to my place, my little buddy (his shih-tzu) needs a friend while mommy and daddy hang out."
Logical Female (Me): "Call me old fashioned, but I don't think going to a complete strangers house is the smartest idea"
Dude Man #1: "All I can say is I like you, I'm a good man."
Logical Female (Me): "You don't even know me"
…….(thinking to myself let's entertain this conversation a bit more)
"What kind of appraisals do you specialize in?" (this was in his profile, we have had no more conversation other than what's mentioned above)
Dude Man #1: "I bang out the big bucks with quick office and industrial appraisals…I have my ways of getting what I want."
Logical Female (Me): "Nice"
(that's my way of saying end of convo, no further interaction needed)
Dude Man #1: (A couple days later) "Hey Baby, what's up?"
Logical Female (Me): SILENCE (baby, really?!?!)
…….(at this point, I really want to delete him, but I am more interested to see if he continues conversation and arrogance)
Dude Man #2: "Do you sleep with socks on or off?"
Oblivious Female (Me): "I actually do prefer to sleep with socks on, but it's not a necessity. I feel it keeps me warmer and I sleep better."
Dude Man #2: "That's a deal breaker, it means you have scaly feet."
Oblivious Female (Me): No response, just deleted and blocked him immediately – what a FREAK!!!
Now this is how you get me to continue a conversation:
Dude Man #3: "I'm a Jags fan and have been looking for someone to watch games with me!"
Excited Female (Me): "Wow, really, I didn't think any existed in Richmond."
Dude Man #3: "Yeah, I'm originally from Tallahassee"
…….Where this gets really funny: He is 24!!! WHAT THE ?!?!
So on this new dating app, it asks for your age range and if it's a deal breaker – I put age 31-41, but not a deal breaker – didn't think it would go back to ages as young as 21!!! Guys are actually "liking" me that are 21 and one even said "You don't look like you're 36!" Thank you, sir – you just made my year!!!
Anyway, back to prepping for an exciting weekend ahead 🙂 Have a great day everyone!!


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GLASS & ASHES "Glass And Ashes"
No Idea Records
No Idea Release NIR-225
Released: March 1, 2008
• LP comes in a fancy GATEFOLD COVER with a printed inner sleeve... nice!!
Ventura, California's GLASS & ASHES enter the fray with their second album: a storm raging, a force of nature unleashed on barren landscapes, rending vast destruction as compelling art. Pummel and rage, burn and seethe, crossing from one side of melodic hardcore straight into the heaviest rock. The past is burnt and frayed. The future is unwritten. In the four years since "Aesthetic Arrest", G&A have matured, focused, and taken the exploration in unexpected directions, yet there is a common thread within. Their two albums are undeniably distinct. For one, Dave Hall left the band and moved to Gainesville a couple years back (check his vocal cameo on "The Rebuttal"), with long time band touring mate Josh Hayes stepping up in fine form. This change in personnel focused the sound of the band. (Point of interest: Mike Carter now commutes cross-country to double-dip in YOUNG LIVERS, alongside Dave.) Inventive, intricate and propulsive drumming couples with spot- on, melodic guitar leads: weaving tension, anxiety, and release into every song. The artwork by Kim Keever could not more perfectly capture the feel of the songs (www.ktfgallery.com). This union of art and music simply compelled us to go over- the-top and create a Gatefold Jacket for both the LP and CD versions. I have heard these songs hundreds of times and I am still left speechless. I suspect you will be left feeling the same. (Hit repeat.) Thanks for listening! – Var / No Idea.
Josh Hayes - vocals, guitar
Jesse Jenny - guitar
Michael Gleeson - drums
Michael Carter- vocals, bass
Produced by Glass and Ashes and Armand John Anthony Recorded, and Mixed by Armand John Anthony Recorded at Nova Studio Ojai, Ca and Satellite Recording Ventura, Ca.
1. Seconds Before The Floor Drops Out
2. To The Point Of Paralysis
3. We Will Hang For This
4. Bird's Eye View
5. Alpha State
6. North Flight
7. Exit Wound
8. Count Back From 10
9. Dead Bodies Skyscrapers High
10. The Rebuttal


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Estimated Time to Read: 3 minutes
How you feed your baby is your choice. Breastfeeding or bottle-feeding – it is entirely up to you. While breastfeeding has its benefits; not every woman is comfortable with it. Many women are also not able to breastfeed their kids due to health reasons. Enter – feeding bottles for newborns.
Feeding bottles for newborns can be a boon for mothers (and parents in general) in so many ways.
The Need for Feeding Bottles for Newborns
For women who do not wish to breastfeed their babies, bottles can be a real help. If you still want your child to feed on breast milk, you can express and store the milk; and then feed it to your baby through the bottle.
Bottle feeding your baby can sometimes be a necessity. If a new mother is unable to breastfeed the newborn due to an illness or health issue (infection, radiation therapy, use of certain medications); bottle feeding offers an excellent alternative.
If you use the best baby bottles for newborns; you can feed your child comfortably and without any problems.
The Advantages of Bottle Feeding
Bottle feeding their babies can be very helpful for new mothers. With new advanced baby formulas available in the market; you don't even need to worry about your newborn not getting the right nutrition.
It is convenient.
You, your partner, or any trusted caregiver can feed the baby with a bottle. Such help can give new mothers some quality time to rest and relax. Bottle feeding is a convenient way for parents to share the feeding duties of their newborns.
With bottles, you can feed your baby anytime and anywhere. You don't need to look for a private place to feed your baby if you are out in public.
There are no diet restrictions.
Women who breastfeed their kids need to restrict their diet so as to not affect the quality of the breast milk. Very spicy or acidic foods can make breast milk less palatable for babies and cause indigestion in them when consumed. When women bottle-feed their babies, they can eat as per their preferences.
There is no risk from mother's medication use.
Many women need to forgo taking medicines they need if they are breastfeeding their babies. Many medicines can be harmful to babies. If the mother is on those medications, it can easily seep into breast milk and cause health problems in their newborns.
Bottle feeding, thus, is also helpful for the mothers' health. If a new mother requires medicines for post-partum depression or any other condition; she can take it without worrying about it affecting the quality of her breast milk.
The Right Baby Bottles
To take full advantage of bottle feeding your baby; you need the right bottle. You can't simply use any bottle for newborns. Babies get colic very easily and one of the reasons attributed to it is the air ingested through the food. The air bubbles created when mixing the formula can cause gas or indigestion in babies; causing them to cry incessantly for hours or days on end (colic).
The best baby bottles for newborns are made from safe materials, anti-colic, and easy to use. You can buy anti colic baby bottles that come equipped with a blender and the right nipple shape. The blender inside the bottle offers an easy and effective way to ensure that no air bubbles remain inside the food. Blended food is also easier for babies to consume. Anti-colic bottles also have a vent system to remove air trapped inside the food.
When buying a bottle for your baby, ensure that the silicone nipple is shaped as close to the mother's natural nipple shape as possible. The right shape will help your baby to latch onto the nipple easily. Also ensure that you can buy the nipples separately with different flow options such as slow, medium, and fast. The bottle should be made from materials not containing toxic chemicals such as BPA or phthalates. It should be comfortable to hold and must not be slippery when grasped. Anti-colic bottles with blenders are also perfect to feed stored breast milk as you can easily blend the separated layers of fat and liquid before feeding it to your baby.
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- Feed Type
- Link
- Date
- Company Name
- Mailing Address
8737 Venice Blvd. Los Angeles, CA 90034
- Company Description
EcoMom is committed to making eco-conscious living easy, affordable, and rewarding. By helping women begin to take better care of themselves and their families – with education, support, tools and products – we empower them to take the all important first steps toward a healthier, more balanced, and sustainable lifestyle.
- Website
- Transaction Type
Venture Equity
- Transaction Amount
- Transaction Round
- Proceeds Purposes
The company will use the financing for its growth initiatives.
- M&A Terms
- Venture Investor
Blue Pacific Ventures
- Venture Investor
Daher Capital
- Venture Investor
Crosslink Capital
- Venture Investor
Cue Ball Group
- Venture Investor
Embarcadero Ventures
- Venture Investor
500 Startups
- Venture Investor
Siemer Ventures
- Venture Investor
Rising Tide Fund


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Drakanites came about by an act of kindness shown to Ryujin, by the human being at the time -- Nehir Alakkan. The boy offered the great dragon a piece of meat in harsh times where his kind were hunted, and so they spent many hours talking in good nature. Ryujin, realizing that without a voice, his kind would forever be in conflict with humanity, and so with the co-operation of the boy bestowed his powers upon him with a form of soul transferrence. All of Nehir's descendants from that point on would be blessed with the powers they have to this very day.
The most definitive physical trait of the drakanite line is their higher average height (6'2"); their builds are on average more stocky, along with typically slitted eyes, the most common colour being green. Beneath the surface they have an advanced skeletal structure that has been reinforced with a thin layer of dragon scales, this is not noticeable visually. A drakanite has a higher average body temperature than an average human. This is attributed to their innate fire magic.
In half-shift they close the gap further between humanity and dragon, some may gain some scales along their skin, limbs may turn from the usual human into partial dragon arms, hands, claws. Some may gain tails, but all will usually obtain their signature horns and wings reminiscent of the dragon race. The half-shift changes as standard are proportional to the person that shifts; some are capable of flight. The fabled full-shifter will enable a drakanite to increase in size to become a true dragon, complete with their physiology, and ferocity, as well as the ability to communicate with their kind.
Centuries of breeding outside of their own people have left the majority of the Drakanites genetically unable to achieve a full-shift, which is used to communicate with the dragon kind. The term pureblood can be defined by this ability - one with enough blood purity to potentially undergo a transformation into a dragon is considered a pureblood among the Drakanites. They are highly respected and are essentially akin to nobles within Frostvalian culture. Purebloods are taller than most, with their average height being 6'4" instead of the usual 6'2". They also tend to be more powerful, born with more potential magical power than non-purebloods.
Notable Pureblood Clans and FamiliesEdit
- Thorne - The long and thought-dead former monarchs of Frostvale.
- Tsuchi - One of the oldest clans that still exists today. Existed since the beginning of the Melym Dynasty. Known for their red hair and dark skin. One of the few clans who's height rivals the Scarletts'. Rumors state the the two clans might have been one at some point. One of the few clans whose pure-bloods are not strictly in Frostvale and are much more spread out.
- Scarlett - A family that has existed for some time, but never sat in the limelight until briefly after the plague with the emergence of Helena Scarlett. They are regarded for their honor and strength. They are considered the tallest Pure-blood clan.
- Roland - A family known for its 'bad blood' curse. They suffer from high blood pressure, bouts of rage, and an affinity to darkness. Despite this, they are known for intellect and cunning, as evident by Stena Roland.
- Blackburn- Believed to be one of the only Drakanite clans to be naturally attuned to ice magic instead of fire like other Drakanites.
- Dragontongue- A clan known to have been born, branching off of the Blackburn Clan, and differentiating themselves by returning from the frosted magics to Ryujin's flame as a primary magic.
- Larencia- A clan most prominent in the new millennium, as one of the last pure-blood clans remaining. This clan produces many kin in short amounts of time, and are responsible for the bloom of pure-bloods.
The Drakanites generally worship Ryujin with worship of Kraus actually being secondary to some. For the most part Ryujin is seen as their God, and Nehir Alakkan, as the first Drakanite, is known as "Ryujin's Chosen". Worship tends to be done at the guidance of a Dragon Priest, the term for Priests of Ryujin belonging to the temple dedicated to Him in Frostvale. Jetniss Ravehart, though never directly making contact with Ryujin or being blessed by him, is largely seen as the Second of Ryujin's Chosen due to his uplifting of the Drakanite people and Frostvale, plus his subsequent martyrdom while largely loved by the whole of Frostvale. It isn't unheard of to see a priest outside of Frostvale, normally on an assignment of some kind, or to preach Ryujin's Holy Word to worshippers outside of Frostvale.
The tenents of the faith are simple. Dragons are revered and to be protected as fellow kin, the hunting of dragons is an absolute sin except in the most extreme of cases, as Ryujin also sought peaceful relationships with humans, dragons who go out of the way to attack human settlements and people when not in self defense are seen as heretics. Still, even in this case followers of Ryujin seek to end the conflict peaceably unless forced too. Delivering offerings to dragons is commonplace within the religion, and in the Festival of Ryujin, sheep are sacrificed and offered to dragons in commemoration of the offerings between Nehir Alakkan and Ryujin. It wouldn't be uncommon to see Dragons flying above the skies of Frostvale during the festival to enjoy the celebrations.
In the worship of Ryujin there are those that seek to acrue wisdom through the watching fire, considering it an aspect of Ryujin, or train their bodies to gain the strength of dragons and seek enlightment that way, others, though very few, seek to master the smoke that comes from the flames as an illusion, or the darkness the light of His flames cast. Priests of Ryujin though, mainly stick to consulting fires, watching them for signs of guidance from the Spirit Lord himself.


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Roy Lichtenstein (1923 – 1997)
Posted by M.R.N. on October 23, 2007
One Response to "Roy Lichtenstein (1923 – 1997)"
February 11, 2011 at 11:03 pm
Among the most overrated artist Roy must take a special place.If it happened at some nursing home for Altheimer's sufferers he would be told that cutting up comic books is harmlessly moronic,but the fame-makers in New York decided that they need something to go with Campbell-soup of Warhol and presto-our little Roy became one of the celebrated Great American Artists.Well-except for a handfull of bamboozeled art-collectors on Park Ave. nobody's chest swells with pride to see his achievements to be posted here.Art is never created by a dumb trick.If the art-market was not as corrupt as it is never a retard like that would be represented in museums.I so wish that people who hate our cultural heritage would be shamed. Remember how the same people that hailed this cretin hated Andrew Wyeth.
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