text:
Attached Files
(72.81 KB, 81 views)
Effect of metabolic and respiratory acidosis on intracellular calcium in osteoblasts
Kevin K. Frick and David A. Bushinsky
Department of Medicine, Division of Nephrology, University of Rochester School of Medicine and Dentistry, Rochester, New York
Corresponding author.
Address for reprint requests and other correspondence: K. K. Frick, Div. of Nephrology, Dept. of Medicine, Univ. of Rochester School of Medicine and Dentistry, 601 Elmwood Ave., Box 675, Rochester, NY 14642 (e-mail: ude.retsehcoR.CMRU@kcirF_niveK).
Author information â–º Article notes â–º Copyright and License information â–º
Received 2010 Mar 5; Accepted 2010 May 21.
Copyright© 2010 the American Physiological Society
This article has been cited by other articles in PMC.
Go to:
In vivo, metabolic acidosis {decreased pH from decreased bicarbonate concentration ([HCO3−])} increases urine calcium (Ca) without increased intestinal Ca absorption, resulting in a loss of bone Ca. Conversely, respiratory acidosis [decreased pH from increased partial pressure of carbon dioxide (Pco2)] does not appreciably alter Ca homeostasis. In cultured bone, chronic metabolic acidosis (Met) significantly increases cell-mediated net Ca efflux while isohydric respiratory acidosis (Resp) does not. The proton receptor, OGR1, appears critical for cell-mediated, metabolic acid-induced bone resorption. Perfusion of primary bone cells or OGR1-transfected Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) cells with Met induces transient peaks of intracellular Ca (Cai). To determine whether Resp increases Cai, as does Met, we imaged Cai in primary cultures of bone cells. pH for Met = 7.07 ([HCO3−] = 11.8 mM) and for Resp = 7.13 (Pco2 = 88.4 mmHg) were similar and lower than neutral (7.41). Both Met and Resp induced a marked, transient increase in Cai in individual bone cells; however, Met stimulated Cai to a greater extent than Resp. We used OGR1-transfected CHO cells to determine whether OGR1 was responsible for the greater increase in Cai in Met than Resp. Both Met and Resp induced a marked, transient increase in Cai in OGR1-transfected CHO cells; however, in these cells Met was not different than Resp. Thus, the greater induction of Cai by Met in primary bone cells is not a function of OGR1 alone, but must involve H+ receptors other than OGR1, or pathways sensitive to Pco2, HCO3−, or total CO2 that modify the effect of H+ in primary bone cells. And here the cardiac connection a small piece out of a huge discussion . "If you could develop a drug that would bind to the C-terminus and prevent the interaction with calcium or calmodulin, that might keep the sodium channels working normally in spite of the raised intracellular calcium," XY said. "Perhaps you could prevent arrhythmias in the cases where the cell is calcium overloaded – and we suspect ischemic cells are overloaded." So hard workouts with tHb drops or occlusions would have something to do with this. ??? Ca++ changes can create besides biomechanical problems as well some problem in the delivery system ( Cardiac reactions ) The key of intervall workouts is to start to undersatnd that intervall workouts based on subjective timing idea like 30 seconds all out or 60 seconds all out as well as recovery based on the same outside non physiological informations can have great but as well very negative results. As usual , as long results show performance improvement we believe in this type of Zoning or training loads. Once something is going wrong we are lost .
Image URL
Supported videos include:
Easily create a Forum Website with Website Toolbox.


text:
Minneapolis DUI lawyer David Valentini explains that a person can be cited for a DUI if they are intoxicated and sleeping in the backseat of their car.
More In This Category
View Transcript
The person could certainly be arrested for a DUI. People always think you're doing the right thing by parking the car and falling asleep in the vehicle, but you can certainly be arrested for a DUI under those circumstances.
The question in a physical control case is can an individual take control of that vehicle and go on with their inebriated journey? So the further you get yourself away from the controls of the car, the better. There are a number of different scenarios that go with that. For example, there's a case that deals with a person leaving their home and going into the driveway and going to sleep, trying to avoid a domestic assault. The court of appeals determined that in that specific fact scenario that that was not actual physical control of a motor vehicle.
The further you get yourself away from the controls of the car, the better. You have the keys and you're at or near the controls of the vehicle, that can put you in physical control, and that can get you convicted of a DWI.
Contact David Valentini
Email This Lawyer
See All This Lawyer's Videos
Visit Lawyer's Website

subset: commoncrawl


text:
I missed out on last month's Here and Now and I'm only just making this month's! But better late than never Loving // Spring! Blue skies and sunshine are making my days and there's so much new growth in the garden – very exciting and it's making me very happy
Eating // Very healthily at the moment as I'm on a Detox to try and help strengthen my immune system
Drinking // 3 litres of water a day, well, most days as part of the Detox
Feeling // Delighted that our Claret Ash appears to be sprouting new growth half way down one of its limbs. I've despaired of it the last couple of years hoping that we don't have to take it down. This could be its saving.
Making // Two quilts showing off two new template sets and hoping they'll be ready for the wholesale Market in November; one is at the quilters and one has half the blocks made.
Thinking // Socks. What???? I hear you exclaim. I know, after last year's 16 pairs. But I have this hankering to make another pair of "Muscadine" socks. I've enjoyed wearing my green ones peeking above my short boots and thought a blue pair (and obviously a red pair judging by Friday's shopping) would be good to have for next Winter. Besides I need to practice toe-up socks (that's my story, and I'm sticking to it!)
Dreaming // Of Christian Dior couture clothes after a trip to the NGV to view the Dior Exhibiton there on Friday…..and the hour glass figure to go with them!
Linking up with Sarah at Say, Little Hen of Here and Now.
Meredithe x


text:
WILMINGTON — Sugartree Street residents are seeking answers after several vehicles and homes were vandalized with spray paint.
Wilmington police officers responded to the 200 and 300 blocks of West Sugartree Street Thursday morning where they observed multiple houses and vehicles had been hit by red spray paint.
"There was a vast amount of damage from siding and pillars on homes to entire sides of vehicles with cursing and hate comments," according to the police report.
"Many of the messages were focused at the individuals that live there."
Those messages included profanity and vulgarity, derogatory messages about some residents' religion, and comments directed against police.
Victims listed in the report include a 38-year-old female, a 76-year-old male and a 29-year-old female — all residents of West Sugartree Street. A 47-year-old male who resides on South Nelson Street is also listed as a victim.
"Incident remains under investigation as additional victims are added and investigation continues," the report states.
There was another report of property damage at the 100 block of West Sugartree Street called in by a 36-year-old male, though the report does not list further details.
If anyone has information in regards to this, contact the Wilmington Police Department at 937-382-3833.


text:
EVO microSD Card (USB Reader)MB-MP64DC/EU
The item is in the cart.
Family Line
Speed Class
MicroSD Memory Card
Capture all of life's precious moments securely with high-performing and stylish memory cards.
Capture faster
Save your precious memories—fast. This UHS-I Speed Class 1 (U1) and Class 10 compatibility memory card is perfect for capturing photos and for video recording & playback in Full HD. And with up to 48 MB/s transfer speed, apps and videos load quicker and files transfer faster.
Transfer faster
Transfer 360 photos per minute. With a transfer speed of up to 48 MB per second, you can spend less time transferring memories, and more time making them.
A perfect partner
Get the most out of your mobile phones and tablets. This memory card works perfectly with advanced devices to protect your memories for life.
Amazing capacity
Save over 5470 photos¹, 8 hours and 10 minutes of Full HD video², or 15330 songs³.* Download more media files and apps to your smartphone or tablet. And always know you've got plenty of space.**
* Test Device: Samsung NX1. The above results are from internal tests using a Samsung SD adapter with the average-actual data store capacity (91.5% of the labeled capacity). The results may vary based on testing conditions and host devices. 1) 28 MP (6480 x 4320) Super Fine, average file size: 11.5 MB. 2) 1920 x 1080 / 60P, HQ, average file size: 127.7 MB. 3) Average file size 4.1 MB. ** The storage capacity stated in the product specifications may be lower than the capacity reported by your computer's operating system due to difference in measurement standards.
Full HD video
Capture the moments that matter as vividly as you remember them. Shoot beautiful, Full HD videos that keep each memory safe and sound — and fresh as the day it happened.
Samsung Memory Cards can survive up to 72 hours in seawater.
These memory cards can endure temperatures from -25° to 85° Celsius.
The cards protect your precious data from damage caused by airport X-ray machines.
Samsung Memory Cards can even resist magnetic fields of up to 15000 gauss—the equivalent of a high-field MRI scanner.
* Samsung is not liable for any damages and / or loss of data and expenses incurred from memory card data recovery.
- EVO Family Line
- Up to 48 MB/s transfer speed with UHS-I interface* Actual speed may vary depending on use host device conditions and environment.* Write speed is slower than transfer speed Speed
- Grade 1, Class 10 Speed Class
- UHS-I, compatible to HS interface Interface


text:
This is the "start" of my blog page – again. I'm restarting it to share with you our adventures in New Zealand during 2012/2013, and whatever else comes my way
The reason I had to stop blogging a while ago was because my mom got a major surgery and ended with her in a lot of pain. The doctors gave her all sorts of painkillers that didn't help. Then, a nurse came and told us about oxycodone. I went online and learn that you can buy oxycodone without prescription because they have their own certified doctors. So, if you are on pain, anything from a minor headache up to nerve pain, just click on the link for more information.


text:
Commenting ahead of the release of A-level exam results tomorrow (Thursday), Dr Adam Marshall, Director of Policy at the British Chambers of Commerce (BCC), said:
"Too much attention is focused on the annual ritual of exam results, and too little on whether our young people are getting the skills they need to succeed. In a tough economic climate and with the number of 'Neets' heading towards the one million mark, it's more important than ever that Britain's education and training systems work for learners and for businesses alike."Companies up and down the country tell us that too many young people are still leaving school, college or university without the tools needed to get into work. So rather than focus on A-level pass rates, councils, colleges and local businesses need to form a closer partnership – ensuring that employers can recruit locally, and that young people get the training they need to get ahead."


text:
From start-ups to global players, there's a long list of reasons to locate your business in East Cambridgeshire.
Business booms in Cambridgeshire.
East Cambridgeshire's progressive vision.
A talented work force for all sectors. Cambridge residents are a world leading workforce.
A true gem in the heart of the Cambridgeshire countryside.
Reaching new heights to provide connectivity to the area.
It's an information jungle out there, so have a look at our clear and handy guide to practical help for businesses large and small.
Here to facilitate economic growth by working with the business community.
Working with people to help them access funding and grants.
Coming soon
Skills to future-proof your business.
Facilitating and expediting the planning process.
Check out the diverse range of sectors that have successful businesses operating in our region.
The East of England is home to a high concentration of the Agri-Tech industry.
30 x higher than national average.
Home to the UK's most successful logistics and distribution firms.
East Cambridgeshire is in the mix of talent and resources - the place to be.
An industry at the heart of East Cambs.
Good for business and a great way to gain hands-on experience while studying towards an industry-recognised qualification.
Everything you need to know about apprenticeships to get started.
Earn while you learn.
Apprenticeships - Good for Business.
Search for apprenticeships vacancies in the East Cambridgeshire region.
Get advice and tips about jobs, careers and training.
Find out which businesses are open in our towns following Covid-19.
Who are we? We are pro-business, pro-growth, and proactive. Find out more.
Promoting economic growth across the district.
For advice or information our supportive friendly team will be delighted to help.
Now in its third year, the highly popular East Cambs Business Boost 2019 event will bring together companies within Ely and the surrounding areas.
Find our more about this years experienced event speakers.
Find our how your business can exhibit at Business Boost.
A wide range of sponsorship opportunities are available.
Full details about how to book at this years event.
Keep up-to-date with the latest news and events from Enterprise East Cambs.
Keep up-to-date with the latest news from Enterprise East Cambs.
Key event dates for your diary.
Cambridge residents are a world leading workforce. With 65% educated to a degree level that's over 185,000 residents offering degree level skills or above.
Within the sub-region, East Cambridgeshire is highly adept with a large proportion of those in employment (50%+) occupying managerial, professional and technical positions. 21% of the resident workforce is employed in administrative, secretarial and skilled trades. The remainder of the resident workforce (30%) are employed in care, leisure and service occupations including process plant and machine operatives.
With over 35% of the workforce qualified to NVQ level four or above the region has an exceptionally strong pool of well qualified and highly sought after people that matches the wider Cambridgeshire area as a great location to recruit.
Businesses based in the area have access to a labour market boosted by the drive and talent from the regions universities providing over 30,000 graduates each year stimulating research, innovation and skills.
The region is also part of the UK's number one area for commercial Research and Development spend, accounting for 25% of the national total.
With close proximity to the world famous University of Cambridge and regionally important Anglia Ruskin Campus employers and students have access to the best higher educational facilities in the world.
Anglia Ruskin University is one of the largest universities in the East of England and home to over 35,000 students across three campuses in Cambridge, Peterborough and Chelmsford. It was recently named UK Entrepreneurial University of the Year at the Times Higher Education Awards.
Thu 25 Jun 2020
Fri 12 Jun 2020
Mon 08 Jun 2020
Thu 04 Jun 2020
Tue 02 Jun 2020


text:
This could be dangerous so get someone who knows what they are doing to do it. This will halt vertical growth and after a few weeks the plants will start to show either male or female characteristics. A good book on how to grow cannabis with pictures and good detail is essential for serious growing.
Use an appropriate fuse or better still, buy a circuit breaker. A standard and widely available 24hr timer will be fine. Growth space must be high enough to allow growth to about 60cm (2-3ft). Twice this height should be converted into a two level growing space by inserting a shelf.
How to grow cannabis indoors or how to grow cannabis outdoors you must have good seeds, some seedling soil, some small and large pots and depending on whether you're growing indoor or outdoor some lamps and all the toys around them.
The inside of this closet should be painted with flat white paint or coated with aluminum foil (or Mylar is you have it). It will probably be hotter than this so cut a small ventilation hole (10cm*10cm) in the top of the cabinet. Water the plants once a day and feed the plants twice a week with a standard miracle grow product in the water.
This will increase reflectivity and will make your lights more effective. Mount the lights vertically with one in each corner, as close to the top of the cabinet as possible. Try to use a high nitrogen plant food during vegetative growth (at the start) and a low nitrogen plant food during flowering.
Now anchored by the roots, and receiving water and nutrients, the embryonic leaves (cotyledons) unfold.
They are a pair of small, somewhat oval, simple leaves, now green with chlorophyll to absorb the life-giving light. The embryo has been reborn and is now a seedling living on the food it produces through photosynthesis.
This size can be varied depending on the number of plants but this is good for 25.
Remember to make sure that your lights will fit inside the closet.
First you may want to have some good fertilized soil, preferably peat moss, and you may want to use a little bit of miracle grow, which can be purchased at a low price at any plant shop, pretty muc Quik grow tips.
You must have either a 400 watt or 600 watt grow lamp. RATIO: 1 400 watt lamp = 1 squire meter of plants( /- 25 plants). A wooden closet of approximately 100*100*200cm would be good.
You should get the longest light that will fit into your space and the highest wattage you can find.Tags: Adult Dating, affair dating, sex dating


text:
Olivia is an eight-year-old Roman girl. This morning, like every other Sunday, she accompanies her grandfather to mass. On the way there, she admires the most beautiful sites in Rome, the Vatican, St-Peters and the Parliament building. Then, on a stopover at the pastry shop, Olivia learns to pay in euros and get the correct change. Back home, she impatiently waits for lunch. Her mother is cooking a typical Northern Italian dish, risotto. The rest of the day is for homework! Luckily, grandpa is there to help. The nest day, after school, Olivia is very excited. She is going to the airport to pick up her cousin Isa who lives in Milan. It's impossible not to stop at the beach and run in the sand! Soon, it's time to find he mother and go on an expedition to the city center. First stop, the Pantheon, the heart of ancient Rome, and then the Trevi fountain. There is nothing as good as a plate of Italian pasta to finish off a perfect day!
Check out our advanced search for all our videos


text:
Status Report
From: American Institute of Physics
Posted: Tuesday, January 7, 2003
Before turning our attention to 2003, a final look at 2002 with quotations from last year's FYIs:
"International tests place our students in the bottom third of industrialized nations in their performance in science, and dead last among those nations in high school physics." - Rep. Vernon Ehlers (R-MI)
"I want to state clearly at this point that, despite its apparent impracticality, the administration values discovery-oriented science, and aims to continue to support the grand quest for knowledge about the universe at the largest and smallest scales." - OSTP Director John Marburger at a meeting of the American Astronomical Society
"In absolute terms the science and technology [budget request] numbers have grown as well. Would we have liked to have gone faster? Of course." - DOD Comptroller Dov Zakheim on the Administration's FY 2003 Defense Department request.
"The Congress, led by this Committee, will have to show its mettle and provide an infusion of cash for the rest of the research budget, even in these strained times." - House Science Committee Chairman Sherwood Boehlert (R-NY)
"The priorities of the nation drastically changed in a matter of a few hours." - OSTP Director Marburger
"It's a big deal." - Commerce Secretary Don Evans on global climate change
"While these projects don't sound very relevant to the daily existence of most Americans, the downstream impact of projects like these is pretty significant." - DOE Undersecretary Robert Card on nuclear and high energy physics research
"What I've come to understand is that in science and technology, few things could actually be bigger than nanotechnology." - Rep. Boehlert
"It has become very tough." - DOE Office of Science Director Ray Orbach discussing the budget for his office
". . . pretty meager." - Rep. James Walsh (R-NY) on the FY 2003 NSF request
"I think you need to raise your visibility . . . [the] public perception is not as great as it should be." - Rep. Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-NJ) to NSF officials
"Some believe NASA has lost its focus and that the pioneering spirit, the excitement of NASA's mission is gone. But believe me, that spirit is alive and well. We intend to nourish it." - NASA Administrator Sean O'Keefe
"The Department's scientific inquiries and modeling clearly demonstrate that a repository at Yucca Mountain can meet the EPA's standards for protecting the health and safety of our citizens." - Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham
"Nevada considers the Yucca Mountain project to be the product of extremely bad science, extremely bad law, and extremely bad public policy." - Nevada Governor Kenny Guinn
". . . the physical sciences need more attention." - Rep. Nick Smith (R-MI) at hearing on the NSF "doubling" bill.
"If we can afford to double NIH, we can afford to double NSF." - Rep. Ehlers
"Get the accounting done, and think big. I think you're up to it." - Senator Ron Wyden (D-OR) to NASA Administrator O'Keefe on the space station
"I find this really disturbing." - Senator Barbara Mikulski (D-MD) on the FY 2003 NSF request
"I'm disappointed that the Administration has not demonstrated the same level of support for NSF as we have." - Senator Christopher Bond (R-MO)
"Understanding the actual return on our federal investment dollar is all the more essential in the current environment, when we need to ensure that national security needs are fully met. We cannot afford to increase funding for all programs." - OMB Comptroller Mark Everson at a hearing on the evaluation of R&D programs.
"Without adequate research into the underlying fields of physics and chemistry, advances in biology and medicine will stall." - Rep. Connie Morella (R-MD)
"We get a huge return on the money that we invest in research, and we will determine today what kind of a world our children will live in." - Rep. Gill Gutknecht (R-MN) during House consideration of NSF "doubling" bill
"No one lab will have supremacy." - Senator Pete Domenici (R-NM) on the role of national labs in the new Department of Homeland Security
"I just don't want to be second in the world." - Office of Science Director Orbach to high energy physics advisory panel.
"America's technological prowess is unequaled in the world today - which is why, despite our economic slowdown and the financial burdens of prosecuting the war against terrorism and ensuring our collective defense, we still have the strongest, most vibrant economy on the planet." - Senator Joseph Lieberman (D-CT)
"It always pays to be mindful of the fact - especially in the wake of the September 11 events - that there is a strong and tight linkage between our national security and the level of science and technology proficiency in America."- Rep. John Larson (D-CT)
"Where the rubber meets the road, we have to stop talking and invest, with real money, in the science and engineering enterprise that will guaranty the health, economic viability, and security of our future." - Senator Ernest Hollings (D-SC)
Richard M. Jones
Media and Government Relations Division
The American Institute of Physics
(301) 209-3094
// end //
More status reports and news releases or top stories.
Please follow SpaceRef on Twitter and Like us on Facebook.
Recent Articles


text:
Meet the Leaders
We are so thankful for our student leaders who serve the Lord by serving on our leadership team and working alongside the staff to lead the ministry of Towson Cru.
Student Directors
Katie Warner & Matt Cregger
Student President/VP's role is to work with the
staff to love and serve the leadership team by
helping them see the big picture and trust
the Lord while working through any problems
that may arise.
Sage Isaac
The Treasurer's role is to help manage
the Cru finances to meet all SGA requirements.
Freshman Team
Freshman Team's mission is to work to
build community and provide spiritual
mentorship for the freshman class.
Freshman who attend will be encouraged
and challenged to grow in their walk
with Christ. Upperclassmen will take the
role of shepherding through teaching and service.
Worship Team
Worship Team's mission is to create
an environment where all people can
come together to praise God with
gospel-centered worship.
Prayer Team
Josh Cregger
Prayer Team's mission is to oversee,
motivate, model, and lead students
in intimacy and dependency on Christ
through prayer with the view towards
reaching every student with the gospel.
Cru Team
Lauren Proudfoot
Cru Team's mission is to create a
welcoming environment where
students can hear and experience
the gospel in an attractive setting
and effectively communicate information
upfront at Cru.
Evangelism Team
Blake Myers
Evangelism Team's mission is
to encourage, equip, and provide
opportunities for the Cru ministry
to share the life-changing message
of the gospel with the campus
and beyond.
Community Team
Community Team's mission is to create
opportunities that foster fellowship and
community that also are open and
welcoming to new people by organizing
fun and unique events.
Men's/Women's Team
Abigail Thornsberry & Matt Cregger
Men and women team's mission is to
organize events to unite all men/women
in Cru for a time of fun and fellowship
and provide some spiritually applicable
content to the men/women.
Servant Team
Daniel Hatfield
Servant Team's mission is to encourage
and provide opportunities for Cru to
serve the campus and surrounding
Love Week Team
Meg Smith
Love Week Team's mission is to love
and serve the city of Baltimore because
God loves the city. Love Week Team
plans and provides opportunities for
the Towson student body to love and
serve the city of Baltimore.


text:
MakerSquare Career Day - Fall 2013 Cohort
Thursday, November 7, 2013 from 6:30 PM to 9:30 PM (CST)
Event Details
MakerSquare - Career Day Guide
Career Day consists of drinks, appetizers, group presentations, individual science-fair-type presentations, and meeting new people!
The group presentations will be from MakerSquare developers' capstone projects for the course.
The science-fair-type presentations are for you and our graduates to connect and learn more about each other and the projects graduates have been working on. As a developer/recruiter, you may take note of who to bring-in for follow-up interviews.
Then network with our graduates and get to know them a little bit better.
6:30 - 7:00 PM Drinks, Appetizers and Mingle
7:00 - 7:45 PM Welcome, and Project Demos
7:45 - 8:45 PM Science-Fair-Style Student Demos
8:45 PM Closing & Networking
What are my transport/parking options getting to the event?
There are many parking spots available on the street, as well as a parking garage on Brazos street that costs $5 for the evening. Public transport is very convenient to getting to Capital Factory.
When & Where
Capital Factory
701 Brazos Street
Thursday, November 7, 2013 from 6:30 PM to 9:30 PM (CST)
Add to my calendar


text:
Chez Elle, have you been? Pour yourself a cocktail and revel in her eclectic style where unlikely pairings somehow look just right. One design
Returns are accepted for full credit up to 14 days from delivery date. Shipping charges are not refundable. See our Shipping & Returns Page for more details
You might also like...
This product has yet to be reviewed. Be the first.


text:
Relax during your next trip to Syracuse and avoid the hassle of dealing with expensive cab rides and stuffy buses. Instead, book your Hertz car rentals in Syracuse today, right here on Expedia.com and experience the comfort and convenience of traveling with your own set of rental wheels. This way, you can explore all the major sites and attractions of Syracuse at your leisure instead of trying to navigate public transportation routes.
Hertz Rental Syracuse Deals
Find Cheap Hertz Rental Deals in Syracuse
At Expedia, we are proud to work with Hertz due to their history of superior customer service as well their large fleet of premier vehicles. Start browsing through the great selection of rental cars by entering your search preferences into our online booking wizard and sorting through everything from spacious SUVs to compact luxury cars. Meaning, whether you need an economy car for a quick business trip or a roomy vehicle to fit the entire family on a long road trip, we've got you covered. And, what's more, we always offer Hertz Syracuse cars at the lowest possible prices. Backed by our Best Price Guarantee, our prices on Hertz rentals in Syracuse can't be beat. Get started and peruse our myriad of cheap deals and discounts on rental cars for your time in Syracuse today.
Car Pickup Locations from Hertz in Syracuse
- Next
- Page 1 of 2
- Showing Results 1-5 of 10
Hertz: 5174 Commercial Drive, Yorkville, NY 13495, USA
Location: In City
Pickup Method: At Location
Hertz: 5885 East Circle Drive, Driver's Village, Cicero, NY 13039, USA
Location: In City
Pickup Method: At Location
Hertz: 6000 Thompson Road, East Syracuse, New York, USA
Hertz: 300 Erie Blvd., Syracuse, New York, USA
Hertz: 102 Spruce Street, Ilion, New York, USA
- Next
- Page 1 of 2
- Showing Results 1-5 of 10


text:
Log in
Sign up
Log in
Sign up
Upgrade to remove ads
Only $1/month
Child Intervention Final
Key Concepts:
Terms in this set (52)
Risk factor
believed to predispose children and adults to mental disorder; to qualify as a risk factor, a variable must pre-date the disorder and increase the chances that a person will develop the disorder (biological, psychosocial, individual, family, community, institution level).
Protective factor
believed to "protect" individuals against the association between a risk factor and a negative mental health outcome. In other words, protective factors modify, ameliorate, or otherwise change a person's response to a known risk factor(biological, psychosocial, individual, family, community, institution level).
refers to evidence that a treatment works under tightly controlled, experimental conditions (maximizes internal validity).
refers to evidence that a treatment works in a real-world setting under real-world conditions, such as in clinics or schools (maximizes external validity).
treatment mediator
a factor that explains the relationship between the treatment and an outcome of interest, and therefore can be said to be a mechanism of change in the treatment.
treatment moderator
a factor that changes the nature of the relationship between the treatment and the outcome of interest, thereby demonstrating that the treatment is more effective or less effective for specific groups of participants.
3 types of measurements
Broad-Band Mental Health Measure,
Measure specific to Disorder(s)
Weekly/Bi-weekly monitoring
FEAR Cycle
anticipation of negative consequences, increased physiological arousal, avoidance of feared situation, reduce physiological arousal, reinforcement from reduced arousal and avoidance
2 ways avoidance is reinforced in the FEAR cycle
1. avoidance of event 2. reduced physiological arousal
Types of modeling
Live modeling involves in-person observation of the models' non-fearful behavior.
Symbolic modeling employs video or other representations of models showing non-fearful behavior.
Participant modeling pairs the fearful youngster with a model who encourages shared involvement in the feared activity.
Treatment steps in Modeling Treatment
1. Assess fear levels 2. arrange for child to watch someone engage with fear. 3. have child engage in fear 4. give positive rewards for engaging in fear (optional)
Pitfalls of Modeling treatment
Low credibility of the model
Failure to repeat the model's behavior
Excessive dependence on the model
Treatment Steps for Systematic Desensitization
1. assess level of fear 2. establish fear hierarchy from least to greatest 3. train child to relax 4. expose child to fear from least to greatest 5. if child shows too much anxiety, revert back to previous level 6. when child remains relaxed through fear hierarchy, repeat
Pitfalls of systematic desensitization
Therapist difficulty in conveying a vivid image for imaginal exposure
Youth difficulty in imagining and in mental elaboration
Treatment Steps for Reinforced Exposure
1. identify feared situation and figure out a way for gradual exposure to occur 2. present child with situation and response items, rewarding after increased exposure 3. upon exposure give feedback 4. continue until child reaches success
Pitfalls of Reinforced Exposure
Exposure task too easy or too hard
Rewards not rewarding enough
Treatment Steps for Self-Talk
1. Identify feared situation and assess baseline fear levels 2. identify thoughts child is having 3. teach child alternative thoughts 4. observed and document child's degree of tolerance of feared situation using self-talk 5. give child feedback on progress and reward success 6. continue until child reaches goal
Pitfalls of Self-talk
The "I don't know problem"
Confusing thoughts w. Feelings
Failure of self-talk to generalize
FEAR steps
F "Feeling Frightened?"
E "Expecting bad things to happen?"
A "Attitudes and Actions that will help"
R "Results and Rewards"
Pitfalls of coping cat
In vivos and STIC tasks that are too easy
Children who resist exposures
Anxious cognitions are the only ones the child can think of, or are more believable than the non-anxious ones
Rigid manual adherence that fails to adapt to child characteristics and contexts
Family Anxiety Management program steps
1. remain calm and speak in a calm voice 2. try not to interfere or come to rescue when partner is dealing with child, parent who gives instructions should follow through 3. help partner if needed 4. back each other up 5. do not comment on each others behavior until calm and relaxed, do not criticize each other 6. after problem is over, discuss it together and problem solve
Family Anxiety Management Problem Solving
AGREE on a mutual time and place to talk
IDENTIFY the problem behavior
BRAINSTORM solutions together
DISCUSS solutions and pro and con them
PLAN a strategy for solution
REVIEW how solution is working
Pitfalls of FAM
Parents' wariness about being targeted in treatment
Parental reluctance to grant independence to the child
Interparental conflict that undermines child progress
Parents can't/won't model exposure for the child
Problem-Solving for Depression
1. Define the problem
2. Brainstorm possible solutions
3. focus energy and attention at task
4. imagine outcome of each solution
5. weigh consequences of each
6. evaluate outcome after trying it
7. reward for success or repeat steps 1-6
Sleuthing for Truth
The child identifies a negative thought, then makes a list of supporting and refuting evidence bearing on that thought, and finally make a verdict.
Pitfalls for interventions for depression
Homework not done
Cognitive focus seen as criticism of the child
Mismatch between coping skills and child's developmental level
Child's pessimism and hopelessness may undermine efforts to cope
Treatment Steps for the Quick Benson
1. Check the tension level in the area you are tense
2. Take a deep breath and let it out slowly
3. picture yourself relaxing in your favorite place
two-process model of control and success of understanding it
Primary control involves enhancing reward or reducing punishment by making objective conditions conform to one's wishes
Secondary control involves enhancing reward or reducing punishment by adjusting oneself to objective conditions that are hard to change, so as to control their subjective, personal impact
Successful coping with depression may require: 1) learning to apply primary control to distressing conditions that are modifiable, 2) learning to apply secondary control to distressing conditions that are not modifiable
ACT and THINK
ACT = change the situation (when situations are modifiable = primary control)
THINK = change your response to the situation (situations are distressing but not modifiable = secondary control)
Affect identification is used to assist the teen in linking interpersonal experiences to changes in their mood. By understanding their communication style, the therapist is also able to help them experience more interpersonal interactions that will improve their mood.
Communication analysis is used to assist the teen in understanding: 1) the impact of their words on others, 2) the feelings they convey with verbal and nonverbal communications, 3) the feelings that generated the exchange, 4) their ability to modify such exchanges, and, therefore, the affect associated with the relationship, and consequently, their general mood.
Decision analysis is used when teens are experiencing conflict. They are taught basic problem-solving skills, such as negotiation and compromise.
Role-playing is used to: 1) give adolescents a safe place to practice newly acquired interpersonal skills, 2) to provide an opportunity to receive feedback before testing out a new skill in real life, and 3) to increase the teen's social confidence.
SAFETY program
1. Settings 2. People 3. Activities and Actions 4. Thoughts 5. Stress reactions
What are the average effect sizes for the effects of youth psychotherapy at post-treatment and at follow-up? What does this suggest about the effects of youth psychotherapy?
The average effect size is .46. The probability that youth would fare better than the control group was 63%.
Does therapy impact vary by target problem? Please describe. What implications does this have for intervention development within clinical child psychology?
Yes, psychotherapy was strongest when used for anxiety and weakest when used for depression. The implications are that certain therapies show better outcomes and based on research, a certain treatment should be applied. In some cases with depression, treatment fared worse than the control.
Does therapy impact differ according to the therapy used? Please describe.
There is mixed evidence regarding this. Studies show that treatment may differ in their effects in highly specific ways. Youth focused behavioral therapies have shown robust outcomes while other therapies had differences in significance depending on the informant.
Concerns about cultural adaptations to EBT
Evidence that EBTs are less effective with minorities is limited
May prompt haphazard or inappropriate adaptations that actually compromise the fidelity of the intervention and their effectiveness.
Concerns regarding generalization of EBT
If the clinician is unable to give the appropriate dosage of treatment due to cultural differences
May not take into account the language, values, customs, child-rearing traditions, expectancies for child and parent behavior and distinctive stressors and resources associated with different cultural groups
cultural adaptations are warranted when....
Translational research suggests that a particular problem may emerge within a distinct set of risk and resilience factors in a given community.
*According to the Weisz (2004) text, what type of modeling has been shown to be the most potent?
participant modeling
What are some important moderators of the effectiveness of the Coping Cat program? For whom is Coping Cat most effective?
The two potentially most important moderators are race and ethnicity.
When given the choice, would you choose to administer Coping Cat in an individual or a group format? What research influenced your choice?
Individual format, seeing as research by Flannery et. al that compared Coping Cat showed better outcomes in , individual (73%), than in group (50%) and wait-list outcome (8%).
What are some important moderators of the effectiveness of the family component of Coping Cat/Koala? Who is most likely to benefit from an added family component? For whom does it not make a difference?
Treatment moderators: age, gender.
Family Component seems to fare better for younger children, girls, children whose parents had anxiety.
Kendall (1994) randomly assigned children with anxiety to a Coping Cat group or a wait list control group. This study found that children in the Coping Cat group exhibited improvements in what measure(s) of child anxiety? In what risk and protective factors?
The children exhibited improvements on their RCMAS scores, the child's interview data, parent structured interview data, CDI scores, and TRF internalizing t scores.
Protective factors: parental involvement
Hancock and colleagues (2018) randomly assigned children with anxiety to (a) Acceptance and Commitment Therapy, (b) Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy, or (c) a wait list control group. What did the authors find regarding the efficacy of ACT in reduction of anxiety symptoms and/or anxiety diagnoses? What did the authors find regarding the efficacy of CBT in reduction of anxiety symptoms and/or anxiety diagnoses? Was there evidence to suggest that ACT or CBT was superior to the other in the reduction of anxiety symptoms? Please discuss.
Analyses revealed that both ACT and CBT were efficacious superior to wait list in treating anxiety symptoms and/or anxiety diagnoses, with ACT having greater effect sizes on QoL outcomes but not on avoidance/fusion outcomes. completer analyses showed that both ACT and CBT produced highly significant reductions in CSR in contrast to the WLC group, maintained at 3MFU. Furthermore, approximately one third of participants in both treatment groups no longer met criteria for an anxiety disorder, with further improvement evident at 3MFU. The WLC did not evidence improvement over time. Means were neither statistically or clinically different over time overall when comparing ACT and CBT, with small effect sizes. The average number of anxiety diagnoses was reduced from three to one, a difference of large effect size for ACT and CBT. Recovery rates also indicated superior outcomes for the treatment groups relative to WLC.
Was ACT, CBT (or both) effective at improving psychological quality of life? Physical quality of life?
In terms of QoL outcomes, both treatments, but not the WLC, produced significant improvements in psychosocial measures of QoL, with gains maintained at follow-up, in line with predictions. Effect sizes were similar for all QoL measures, except the CALIS, with larger effect sizes for ACT compared with CBT, providing some support for outcomes reflecting the emphasis of ACT on QoL
Stark and colleagues' second test of an expanded CBT program (Stark, 1990; Stark et al., 1991) compared a CBT intervention that combined elements of self-control and behavioral problem-solving with a traditional counseling condition. What did these studies find?
First test:
Results indicated that this intervention was more effective than the supportive counseling program for the treatment of moderately depressed (based on a semistructured diagnostic interview) boys and girls.
Second test (ACTION program):
Results indicated that the ACTION treatment with and without parent training was more effective than the minimal contact control condition, because girls in both treatment conditions reported significantly lower mean levels of depressive symptoms at posttreatment relative to girls in the minimal contact control condition. The two active treatments were not significantly different from one another. On a clinical level, more than 80% of the girls no longer met criteria for a diagnosis of a depressive disorder (based on child and parent K-SADS-P ratings) after completion of the treatment. In contrast, 47% of the girls in the minimal contact control condition were no longer depressed after treatment. Results of the measure of the cognitive triad indicated that the girls who completed both treatments experienced significantly greater improvement in their sense of self and future on the CTI-C, and that the girls in the CBT-only condition reported significantly more positive sense of self and future relative to girls whose parents also participated in parent training. 84% of the girls in the CBT + PT condition reported maintaining their improvements and 73% of the girls in the CBT-only condition reported maintaining their improvements.
Weisz et al. (1997) examined the effectiveness of PASCET. What did this study find?
Results showed significantly greater reductions in depressive symptoms for the PASCET group than the control group. In addition, relative to the control group, children in the PASCET condition were more likely to transition from above the normal range for depressive symptoms to within the normal range on both measures at post- treatment (50% vs. 16%) and 9-month follow-up (62% vs. 31%). The findings suggested that PASCET had the potential to produce beneficial effects.
Mufson et al. (2004) found that IPT-A was superior to clinical monitoring for clinic-referred adolescents with Major Depressive Disorder. Which outcomes were impacted by treatment with IPT-A?
Depression assessment scores were significantly lower for participants (Hamilton Scale, BDI) than those in control group. Participants also improved on social functioning and positive problem-solving and rational problem-solving.
Reyes-Portillo and colleagues (2017) examined (a) the effectiveness of IPT-A compared to a treatment-as-usual (TAU) condition, and (b) possible mediators of IPT-A on depression and suicidal ideation among Latina/os with depression diagnoses. What did the authors find regarding the effectiveness of IPT-A vs. TAU? What factor(s) mediated treatment-outcome effects and for what outcomes?
IPT-A led to greater improvement in interpersonal functioning with family and peers. Improved family and peer interpersonal functioning emerged as significant partial mediators of the relationship between IPT-A and depression. Only improved family interpersonal functioning emerged as a significant partial mediator of the relationship between IPT-A and suicidal ideation. However, this indirect effect was small, suggesting that most of the benefit of IPT-A for suicidal ideation appears to proceed through a pathway other than family interpersonal functioning.
The impact of IPT-A on depressive symptoms is partially mediated by family and peer interpersonal functioning.
Rosenbaum Asarnow and colleagues (2015) conducted a pilot test of the SAFETY intervention, a brief, pilot suicide prevention intervention for youth who had at least one prior suicide attempt. [Note that this is a pre- to post-intervention study design (only one group of youth, who were all exposed to the intervention) rather than an RCT where there is a control or comparison condition.] Results suggest early support for the efficacy of the SAFETY program on what outcomes?
Reductions in suicidal behavior, youth and parent depression, hopelessness and social adjustment
BLUE thoughts
B- blaming myself L- looking for bad news U- unhappy guessing (fortune telling and mind reading) E- exaggerating
Broadband Measures
Child Behavior Checklist, Youth Self-Report, and Teacher Report Form
Measure Specific
Depression: BDI Youth
Anxiety: BAI youth
Substance: Personal Experience Screening Questionnaire (PES=Q)
ADHD, CD, ODD: Conners 3
Ch. 4 Assessment, Diagnosis, and Treatment
65 terms
Child Psychopathology Ch. 4
109 terms
PSYC330 chapter 4 KEY TERMS
42 terms
Developmental Psychopathology
851 terms
31 terms
Psychopharm Major Depression
94 terms
Adult Intervention
104 terms
32 terms


text:
Make reservations to your favorite marinas trough Harba online booking and payment system. You can find a marina you want to book here: https://harba.co/explore-marinas/
This type of booking does not require to have account in Harba system. If you already have a Harba account you can download HarbaApp and make bookings and payments with it.
Click on the marina you want, and press book and pay. You will be redirected to our online booking page. There you can enter the period of time you're staying there, your boat length, your email or phone number and select the services you want. You will see the services and their codes after payment. If you'll enter your email, services and the codes for them will be sent to your email.
After the payment is done you can also download PDF invoice. If you have included your email address you will also receive an email with attached PDF invoice.


text:
Reconditioning Instructor Preparation Program
You are interested in our Online Reconditioning Instructor Preparation Program? Great!
A few things to know:
- This program is run 2 times per year and start dates are dependant upon registration numbers
- ***Enrolment in this program requires completion of the Reconditioning Level 1 Course.
- Fill out the information below and we'll be back with you shortly with the dates and information on the program and next steps.


text:
Utilizing the technology that couple ducts in a restoration or transitional scenario, the YOURx-Terminal provides up to 16 drops ports along with two feeder ports using the YOURx FlexPort that provides and air/water tight connection, which reduces overall costs by eliminating the need for expensive proprietary connectors. Ducts are simply brought to the YOURx-Terminal, trimmed to length and pushed into the YOURx FlexPort of the YOURx-Terminal completing the protected pathway. Fiber is now pulled or pushed from the customer premise to the "inside" of the YOURx-Terminal, where connector assembly is completed and mated to a removable FieldShield® FlexCartridge® that has been configured to the customer's application.
The FieldShield FlexCartridge provides splicing capabilities for restoration scenarios or for that rare occasion where an unplanned terminal must be placed in lieu of a factory terminated/tested terminal.
YOURx-Terminal Configurations
Patch Only
The YOURx-Terminal can be configured with a factory-terminated FieldShield Optical Cable, from two to sixteen ports, for the feeder configuration that can be pushed or pulled through FieldShield Microduct to a consolidated splice point in the serving area. Distribution ports are sealed with airtight, water tight caps on the inside of the base, until service turn-up is required.
Optical Components
For customers who are experiencing fiber constraints, optical splitters with pre-terminated drop ports can be deployed to split the signal and maximize network performance. The physical architecture and placement of pathways remain largely the same when using the YOURx-Terminal to service active and distributed split business class services. Flexibility in configuration provides maximum scalability across multiple service classes.
MPO Breakout
The YOURx-Terminal MPO Breakout supports configurations deploying up to sixteen SC pre-connectorized distribution ports terminated to an MPO breakout feeder input port. By simplifying the patch and splice configuration to a plug-and-play solution, deployment is built around a single YOURx-Terminal part number and matching MPO feeder cables built to specific application or standardized lengths.
YOURx-Terminal Mounting Options
Below Grade
The YOURx-Terminal can be placed in a flower pot, pull box, small or large vault and is treated the same way you would treat a splice case. Because ducts are terminated directly into the YOURx-Terminal providing a water-tight, gas-tight seal, along with 100 lbs. of pullout force, the terminal, fully or partially loaded, can be placed directly into the housing of your choice providing the number of ducts and associated slack will fit. As all ducts are terminated into the terminal, it is recommended that duct slack that allows for removal of YOURx-Terminal into sufficient access and working position be applied. Whether that be directly over the access point or pulled into a conditioned environment like a splice trailer, the YOURx-Terminal adjusts to the customer's craft practices. If a secured placement into this environment is desired (off the bottom of the closure and off of cables/ducts), the mounting options for the above grade pedestal mounted options can be applied. Access to the terminal is no different than a splice case in that the technician will pull the terminal out of the vault/flower pot and access the terminal per company practices. The cover of the terminal is held on with 8 spring clips that can be disengaged with your fingers but provide the necessary compression force to fully seat the cover against the silicon seal on the base of the terminal when all 8 clips are engaged.
Pedestal Mount / Pole Mount
A simple L-bracket with a locking wheel-nut that attaches to the cover of the YOURx-Terminal provides the flexibility to mount the terminal into any pedestal or pole, while providing quick and easy access to the FlexCartridge for adding/removing/troubleshooting service or adding additional ducts.
Strand Mount
The YOURx-Terminal can be strand mounted for aerial applications for plug-and-play applications utilizing a straight F1/F2 hub and spoke approach or for daisy-chaining applications with the use of splitters and MTP/MPO connectivity.


text:
Photo Galleries
Paul Harris Award 2019
Ian Jenkins and Graham Henderson receives their Paul Harris recognition June 2019details
Pigeon Race 2019
Ticket sales : @Tesco 27 April, @ Sainsburys 4 May, @ Peebles High Street 11 Maydetails
World Polio Day 24 October 2018
The Club with help from Priorsford Primary School, planted crocus corms on Edinburgh Roaddetails
New TV donated to Victoria Park Day Centre
The Rotary Club of Innerleithen, Walkerburn and Traquair and the Rotary Club of Peebles got together and bought a new 55" Flat Screen TV for the Centredetails
Grand Pigeon Race 2018
6 Pigeons fly 140 miles home from Rippon. Win a luxury Spa day for 2 at Stobo Castle Health Spa.details
Cheque to Peebles Christmas Lights Ass
President Gordon Miller hands over cheque during switch on December 2017details
Street Collection September 2017
Collection for Shelterbox ; Hurricanes in the Caribbean - Irma etc.details
Golf at Glenholm 14 August 2017
Glenholm Open. 5.30 for golfers. 6.00 for Dawyck. 7.30 for meal.details
Trekking with Alpacas
At Velvet Hall which is between Peebles and Innerleithen. Two farm roads on the left after Glenormiston gates. Car sharing advised.details
Planting of new Tree outside Post Office
The old tree and bench had to be removed for Health and Safety Reason. New tree was paid for by the Club and planted 26th July 2017details
Chinese Evening
Chinese Banquet at Lychees Ticket : £20 pp Beneficiary : Margaret Kerr Unitdetails
Street Collection November 2016
Raising money for Shelterbox with reference to Haiti hurricane disaster. £520 was raised.details
Coffee Morning 22 Oct 2016
Coffee morning with Proceeds to Bonnie Peebles and Peebles Christmas Lights. £600 was raiseddetails
Promoting Shelterbox
At Peebles Agriculture Show Saturday 13th August, the Innerleithen, Walkerburn and Traquair Club had a stand. Helping out was some of our members.details
Visit to New Lanark
From Peebles, allow 1 hour by car to get there. Footpath from car park to village. Meet in visitor reception Guided tour @ 1300 - cost £9 pp , stout footwear. Annie McLeod Experience @ 1400. Assemble in Cafe @ 1500-1530 for refreshments £7 - £7.50details
Golf at Glenholm 10 August 2015
6:00 Golf 6:30 in Cottage Lounge - Speaker: Ann and Sandy Welsh Subject: Agriculture and Wildlife in Tweeddale 7:30 Dinner VOT: John Burnettdetails
Burns Supper 2015
The annual Burns Supper was held at The Tontine Hotel on the 19th of January. A very good turn out, excellent Haggis and superb speeches an entertainment.details
Visit from Hendaye , November 2014
The Rotary Club of Hendaye paid us a visit on a long weekend 28 November. The Clubs are now twinned as is Peebles and Hendaye towns.details
Ebola Street Collection 2014
High Street collection for Ebola victims in Liberia. Mary's Meals as beneficiary.details
Golf at Glenholm 11 August 2014
Club members gathered at Glenholm for the yearly golf outing and a walk for the non-golfers.details
Young Golfer Competition 2014
The Young Golfer competition was held in July and the two winners were Andrew Clark and David Lindsaydetails
BBQ at Maryfield 21 July 2014
Another successful gathering at Issy's and Alastair's with good summer weatherdetails
Mile of Coins 31 May 2014
Mile of Coins in Peebles High Street 31 May 2014. Assisted by the "cubs" and "brownies", the rotary club collected £728.23.details
Christmas Dinner 2013
Club members and spouses / friends gathered for a festive evening at the Tontine Hotel.details
Philippines Collection 20 November 2013
The Rotary Club was out on Peebles High Street on Saturday 30 November 2013 to collect money for the Philippines Typhoon Appeal. Thanks to the usual generosity of the people of Peebles, £1180 was collected. This enabled the Club to buy 2 Shelter Boxes.details
Snooker Night 2013
The club members gathered at the ex-Servicemen's Club in Peebles for the yearly snooker event. A very good night indeed was had by all. No cues or tables broken and the pre-competition buffet was excellent. Here is the winning pair of Davids.details
End Polio Now Collection 2013
Saturday 12th of October saw members and family of the Club strategically placed along Peebles High Street collecting money for the End Polio Now appeal.details
Community Walk 5 October 2013
Community walk to celebrate opening of new bridge and to raise funds to purchase benches.details
Pigeon Race 2013
The 3rd Great Rotary Pigeon Race was arranged in connection with Peebles Agriculture show. It had its conclusion at the show on 17th of August.A Total of £1368 was raised over the 5 days if ticket sales.details
BBQ at Maryfield 2013
Another Superb gathering at Maryfield in the summer sunshine this year. As we're getting used to, the hosts Issy and Alastair provided an outstanding setting. The pictures will say more than any text can convey......details
2013 Handover of Presidency
On 1st of July President Alan Herd hands over to David McKean for the year 2013/14.details
100 YEARS of ROTARY SERVICE
Peebles Rotarians Douglas Kesting and Jim Forsyth celebrate their 50th anniversary in Rotarydetails
Peebles Young Golfer Competition
David Lindsay's fine round of net 58 wins the Peebles leg of District 1020 Young Golfer competition. Joshua Lamb also qualified for the next leg with second best gross. Both will represent Peebles Rotary at the District Finalsdetails
Peebles gets new President
President Bill hands on the chain of office to new President John Nicedetails
President Bill hosted a Tropical Night at the Tontine Hotel. District Governor Alan McLaughlan was there and most clubs in the Borders were represented. As you can see by the photos the club entered into the spirit of things in a truly tropical way.details
Banner from Rotary Bulgaria
Presentation of a Banner from the Rotary Club of Basko Razlog Bulgaria by Karen Graham.details
CocoaBlack visit
Visit to Cocoa Black for demo and tasting. Peebles Rotary and Partners on the 24th February 2011.details
Bowls night February 7th 2011
Fellowship Bowls night at peebles Exservice Club on Monday 7th February 2011. Event won by Fiona Henshall and John Burnett.details
Mile of Coins 2010
With help from the local Cubs and Beavers, Peebles Rotary Club collected £620 to go towards the new Scout Hall and other local projectsdetails
Rotary Club of Peebles annual barbeque 2009
Organised by Fellowship and held Maryfield courtesy of Alastair and Issy McDougalldetails


text:
His Eminence Archbishop Mor Dionysius John Kawak, accompanied by Very Rev. Fr. Maroutha Hanna, Very Rev. Fr. Andrew Bahhi, and Very Rev. Fr. Augeen Alkhoury Nimat made a pastoral visit to St. Peter's Church in Long Island, New York, on Wednesday March 14, 2018.
His Eminence, Very Rev. Fr. Gabriel Adde, pastor of St. Peter's Church and the clergy, led the Lenten evening prayer. The spiritual message was delivered by His Eminence on the topic "Draw near to God" (James 4:8). Very Rev. Khuroyo Gabriel Adde expressed his gratitude to His Eminence for his visit and invited him and all of the attendees for a Lenten dinner prepared by the church's ladies auxiliary group.
soft Cialis
buy levitra
buy Bactroban cream online
Buy Zocor


text:
Front Page › Forums › Dementia Network test forum › Essay about my experience in work
This topic contains 0 replies, has 1 voice, and was last updated by dokukoda1993 1 year, 5 months ago.
11 February, 2019 at 11:08 am #22210
ORDER NOW! Get a giant discount! CLICK HERE!
Essay about my experience in work
essay about gothic literature
waitress experience resume
esl admission essay ghostwriting for hire au
how to write expository story about geometric figures
homework 11
how to write an essay about a project
essay about education system in saudi arabia
college student resume samples no experience
about newspaper essay
cheap phd essay writer website for masters
value of work essay
sample of resume with work experience
essays on india in 2020
experience warehouse sample resume
an essay about family history
sample cover letter for experienced software test engineer
freedom essay introduction
cheap creative essay writer websites uk
top expository essay ghostwriter site online
how to write a essay about yourself examples
research paper about mahogany
syosset southwoods homework online
essay outline for argumentative papers
procrastination homework
essay topics on the ged test
psychology as level coursework
cpa resume without experience
essay about sport important in my life
student teaching experience essay
resume template professional experience
chair design drafting experience md objective phd resume
sample cover letter no experience job
nokia siemens networks master thesis
descriptive essay about home
user experience director resume
a thesis statement about childhood
closing life experience essay
term papers on experience vs education
investment banking resume no experience
dental essay
science and peace essay
admission essay ghostwriting sites online
sled alaska homework help
marathi essay on any topics
do my theater studies course work
cheap home work ghostwriting websites for phd
resume for 2 years experience in java
gwalior glory high school holiday homework
free research paper about abortion
resume with relevant coursework sample
thesis about soil erosion
essay in english there are more good things rhan bad things about our future
Related Posts:
Download latest resume format for freshers
A rose for emily essay analysis
How to write file to dvd
Art portfolio cover letter sample
You must be logged in to reply to this topic.


text:
An outstanding musical event featuring artists from across the country in a day of music, community and connection, 11.11.12 took place at the Uptown Marble Theater in Marble Falls, TX on Nov 11,2012. The event was sponsored by Outlaw Magazine, Texas Heritage Music Foundation, The Real Deal 93.5 FM Junction TX/Am1230 Kerrville TX, Northland Communications, Dewberry Jam Community Radio AM1670 San Antonio TX, AddictedToRadio.com. It was broadcast on Ustream.tv and featured Billy Don Burns, Jubal Lee Young, Brigitte London, Daryl Wayne Dasher, Mandy Marie Luke, David Patrick Dunn, Brook Faulk and The Luckenbach Poet Walt Perryman. Angela Davis was featured on background vocals and Michael Samuels on dobro, harp and background vocals.
The event was hosted by Texas radio personality Big G (Gordon Ames) of The Real Deal 93.5 FM Junction TX/Am1230 Kerrville TX. All of the performances were acoustic, ringing out strong in the historic Uptown Marble Theater. Songs, stories and love of music filled the air as people tuned in from around the world to watch the show.
JUBAL LEE YOUNG "Why Does It Always Rain":
MANDY MARIE LUKE "It's Just A Phase":
BILLY DON BURNS "Some Were Born To Ride":
DAVID PATRICK DUNN "The Hobo":
BROOK FAULK "Die Crying":
DARYL WAYNE DASHER "Yesterdays":
BRIGITTE LONDON "The Ballad of Martha Jane Canary":
You can view the entire concert HERE. Video courtesy of Texas Heritage Music Foundation and Ann F Klumpyan.
Live photos of 11.11.12 by Ann F Klumpyan, Kay Seliskar and Laurie Harrison can be viewed on our Facebook page's LIVE IN ACTION album.
Outlaw Magazine. Country, Rock and Roll, Blues, Folk, Americana, Punk. As long as it is real, it is OUTLAW. Overproduced mediocrity need not apply.


text:
Taking the Bechdel Test, named after award winning writer, artist, and cartoonist Allison Bechdel, is a good way to make sure that your female characters are real, fully-fleshed out human beings who have lives that extend beyond being a romantic foil for the male protagonist.
In order to pass the Bechdel Test, your fiction must meet three criteria:
Continue reading "Does Your Fiction Pass the Bechdel Test?" »


text:
Lansley vows to scrap imposition of polyclinics
By Gareth Iacobucci
The Conservatives have vowed to scrap the 'top down' enforcement of polyclinics on GPs.
Speaking at the annual Conservative Party Conference, shadow health secretary Andrew Lansley pledged to improve patients' access to their family doctor while putting more power back in the hands of GPs.
He said it was time to strengthen GPs role as commissioners of patient care, and pledged to ditch 'distant, impersonal' polyclinic plans.
Mr Lansley was speaking during a keynote speech at the Party's annual conference in Birmingham, during which he unveiled plans for a large increase in the number of single rooms in NHS hospitals to help tackle infections and improve patient experience.
During the speech, Mr Lansley attacked Labour's handling of GPs, and said the Tories would establish a new independent health service board to: 'give GPs power and budgets to purchase care on behalf of patients'.
He added: 'No longer will top down plans like distant, impersonal polyclinics be forced upon GPs.'
The speech marks the latest opposition attack on centrally-imposed plans to procure at least one polyclinic in each PCT.
Tory leader David Cameron has repeatedly criticised the Government for imposing polyclinics on communities against the wishes of local GPs and patients.
The party recently published a list of more than 600 practices they claimed were at risk from the rollout.Andrew Lansley: no more top down reforms Andrew Lansley: no more top down reforms


text:
Last night saw the launch of a new book by local crime writer Clare Mackintosh at Jaffe & Neale.
Clare, who is the director of the Chipping Norton Literary Festival, and who many in town will know from her days at Thames Valley Police, has been forging a successful career as a writer over the last few years, and now has a two book deal with Sphere.
Her first book, I Let You Go, has now been published in eBook and trade paperback, with the formal paperback launch coming in April 2015.
I Let You Go is a psychological thriller containing a "surprising and brilliantly executed" twist, according to Lucy Malagoni at Sphere. Crime writer Mark Billingham has described it as "a hugely assured and gripping debut", whilst fellow writer Peter James has said it is a "terrific, compelling read".


text: Kaibab Landscaping Telluride is a landscape contractor specializing in custom stonework and landscaping for mountain homes. They take pride in their craft and customer service. Their expertise includes: outdoor kitchens, built-in boulder seating areas, fire pits and fireplaces. They also work with pavers and flagstone for driveways, patios, steps, retaining walls and more.


text:
Homeschooling, Unschooling, & Free / Democratic / Non-traditional Learning
Here you can not only share your favorite TEDTalks, but also inspire others to watch and be inspired! Simply post the URL of the TEDTalk along with a brief description and/or reason why you like it, and watch how inspiration can spread!
***make sure to post the web address so others can watch it too!!
Views: 11


text:
Los Angeles World Airports Los Angeles, California, United States
Jun 02, 2020Full Time
DUTIES ANNUAL SALARY $68,173 to $107,323 Salary range applies to Airport Police Officer I & II. Check www.lawa.org/JoinLAXPD/ for details. NOTE : Annual salary is at the start of the pay range. The current salary range is subject to change. Please confirm the starting salary with the hiring department before accepting a job offer. DUTIES An Airport Police Officer is a sworn peace officer, authorized to carry a firearm who enforces federal and state regulations, City of Los Angeles ordinances, and security, traffic, and safety rules and regulations; engages in law enforcement activities, including uniformed foot, vehicle, motorcycle, bicycle patrol and plainclothes assignments, arrest, and report writing at Los Angeles World Airports; provides information to the public regarding locations and operations of the Department; and does related work. Closing Date/Time: Continuous


text:
3 Night Escape!
Rates from just $85 per night!
*Subject to availability
Subscribe to the Chevron Palms regular newsletter for regular updates and specials!
3 Night Escape!
Rates from just $85 per night!
*Subject to availability
Reward Yourself with a Relaxing Holiday on the Gold Coast. Spend some alone time on the beach. Relax on the sun-kissed golden sands of the Gold Coast. Try the many different restaurants on Broadbeach or go on a shopping spree at the different shopping destinations like Pacific Fair. Everyone deserves a break once in a while. So if you feel like you need one, go ahead and head to the Gold Coast for a fun and relaxing holiday. If it's your first time on the Gold Coast, don't worry. We have a tour desk to help you plan out your holiday itinerary. Just sit back, relax and let us do the planning for you. We'll gladly help you book reservations and make ticket arrangement. We know all the best attractions and top destinations around the Gold Coast. We'll make sure that your holiday is a blast. Tantalise your taste buds and try an array of restaurants that serve Asian cuisine, Aussie favourites, European dishes and more. Our resort is close to some of the most sought after restaurants. After a delicious meal, grab a cup of coffee and some dessert. Choose from the range of cafes. Enjoy a night cap at some of the bars in the area and party the night away. Excitement awaits at Jupiters Casino just minutes away where you can play the tables or take in a dinner and show. All tastes are catered for from the relaxed alfresco style to the more elegant a la carte dining. If you're looking for souvenirs for your loved ones, browse through the most frequented shopping centres on the Gold Coast. Pacific Fair Shopping Centre, The Oasis, Niecon Plaza, Tedder Avenue and Australia Fair are just a few minutes away from our resort.
Book our Surfers Paradise Accommodation Apartments now at http://chevronpalms.etourism.net.au
Image Source : Tedder Ave, Main Beach
All comments will be submitted to the administrator for approval.


text:
For this edition of Like This? Try That!, I want to focus on some dystopian books. I find that this genre as a whole can be polarizing, possibly more than most due to the way it explores and dramatizes social and political structures. But I personally think there is something to be gained from reading these books and examining their commentary. Today I have three recommendations of new(er) dystopian books based on other popular dystopians.
Ready to see my picks?
In both Ready Player One and Warcross, a virtual reality game has been created and has turned into how the world spends the majority of their time. They each take that idea and explore it in their own separate ways but the jumping off concept is quite similar. What they also both have in common is a fun and immersive reading experience!
Both The Handmaid's Tale and Vox suppose a potential future in which women are deemed to be "less than" and oppressed. Although the form of oppression takes place in different ways, there is a clear comparison to be made here. These books feel eerily possible and are quite thought-provoking.
Both The Circle and The Warehouse explore the concept of mega-corporations that our culture comes to rely on. Each book could potentially be direct comparisons to existing companies we all know but the ideas can be extrapolated as they make a commentary about our current society and possible future. They also both tack on a thriller element for readers looking for a little extra action in their reading.
So, there you have three of my dystopian book recommendations based on other popular dystopians! Have you seen or read any of these? What are your thoughts on them?


text:
- On sale!
- Pack
Set DHC Deep cleansing Oil + Free DHC Lip balm
Instead of 29.20
DHC Deep Cleansing Oil. Removes all makeup in one step, even waterproof! a real time saver! The cleansing Oil comes with the DHC Lip Balm !
Your paiements are secure and performed with BNP Mercanet
Find our delivery policy in the "Delivery" section
For further information please consult our "Terms and conditions" section
An offer not to be missed !! A pack containing the fabulous DHC Make Deep cleansing oil + a DHC Lip balm!
The Cleansing oil is the best seller from DHC it represents an average of 1 bottle sold every 10s Worldwide !
DHC Cleansing Oil will be a revolution in your beauty routine. It allows you to quickly remove makeup and cleans your skin gently. It eliminates even waterproof products without damage to your skin.
No needs for several steps to remove makeup. One is enough!
It is suitable for all skin types.
It is the world's No. 1 product from DHC, it combines the benefits of olive oil with those of vitamin E. Not to mention that it is formulated without fragrance, dye nor paraben.
Active ingredients:
+ Virgin olive oil: moisturizing, protective, antioxidant
+ Rosemary essential oil: toning, refreshing
+ Licorice derivative: soothing
+ Vitamine E: antioxydant
To complete your layering ritual, cleansing oil comes with the DHC Lip Balm. This lip balm is rich in Vitamin E and formulated with virgin olive oil, Aloe Vera and beeswax. It can be used as a base for your lipstick, or simply for hydration and protection of your lips.
DHC Deep Clensing Oil
Nothing simplier!
- Make sure your hands are dry
- Take 2 to 3 doses of purifying cleansing oil DHC
- Delicately massage all your face with the product for 30 to 40 seconds, ending with eyelids *
- Rinse with lukewarm water
* No need to use cotton or any other element
DHC Deep Cleansing Oil: Olea europaea (olive) fruit oil, caprylic/capric triglyceride, sorbeth-30 tetraoleate, pentylene glycol, phenoxyethanol, tocopherol, stearyl glycyrrhetinate, rosmarinus officinalis (rosemary) leaf oil.
DHC Lip Balm: Lanolin Oil, Caprylic/capric Triglyceride, Euphorbia Cerifera (candelilla) Wax/candelilla Cera/cire De Candelilla, Lanolin, Beeswax/cera Alba/cire D'abeille, Stearic Acid, Olea Europaea (olive) Fruit Oil, Squalane, Pentylene Glycol, Panax Ginseng Root Extract, Aloe Barbadensis Leaf Extract, Tocopherol, Phenoxyethanol, Stearyl Glycyrrhetinate.


text:
Placebo Effect on Motor Skill Learning:A Randomized, Double-Blind, and Placebo-Controlled Study
The purpose of this investigation was to determine the effects of placebo treatment on the performance of a motor skill. One-hundred eight college students participated in the study. Four experimental conditions were created: (1) near infrared activating group with placebo instructions , (2) near infrared activating group without placebo instructions , (3) placebo group with placebo instructions, and (4) placebo group without placebo instructions . Participants performed four blocks of 10 trials each for the acquisition phase. ANOVAs with repeated measures on the last factor were performed on the various dependent variables: Absolute error, variable error, directional error, and radial error. The results of this investigation revealed significant main effects for group on the absolute error and variable error. The present study suggests that the placebo effect does not influence motor skill tasks in which perception and cognitive information processing are important.
Full Text:PDF
Abernethy, B., Baker, J., & Cote, J. (2005) Transfer of pattern recall skills may contribute to the development of sport expertise. Applied Cognitive Psychology, 19, 705 - 718.
Abernethy, B., Neal, R. J., & Koning, P. (1994) Visual perceptual and cognitive differences between expert, intermediate, and novice snooker players. Applied Cognitive Psychology, 8, 185 - 211.
Abernethy, B., & Zawi, K. (2007) Pickup of essential kinematics underpins expert perception of movement patterns. Journal of Motor Behavior, 39, 5, 353 - 367.
Beedie, C. J. (2007) Placebo effects in competitive sport: Qualitative data. Journal of Sports Science and Medicine, 6, 21 - 28.
Beedie, C. J., & Foad, A. J., (2009) The placebo effect in sports performance: A brief review. Sports Medicine, 39 (4), 313 - 329.
Beedie, C. J., Foad, A. J., & Coleman, D. A. (2008) Identification of placebo responsive participants in 40km laboratory cycling performance. Journal of Sports Science and Medicine, 7, 166 - 175.
Beedie, C. J., Stuart, E. M., Coleman, D. A., & Foad, A. J. (2006) Placebo effects of caffeine in cycling performance. Medicine and Science in Sport and Exercise, 38, 2159 - 2164.
Benedetti, F., Pollo, A., & Colloca, L. (2007) Opioid-mediated placebo responses boost pain endurance and physical performance: Is it doping in sport competitions? The Journal of Neuroscience, 27, 11934 - 11939.
Clarke, V. R., Hopkins, W. G., Hawley, J. A., & Burke, L. M. (2000) Placebo effect of carbohydrate feeding during a 4-km cycling time trial. Medicine and Science in Sport and Exercise, 32, 1642 - 1647.
Foster, C., Felker, H., Porcari, J. P., Mikat, R. P., & Seebach, E. (2004) The placebo effect on exercise performance. Medicine and Science in Sport and Exercise, 36, Supplement S171.
Iverson, L. (2005). A very short introduction to drugs. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Kim, J., Chung, S. T., Tennant, L. K., Singer, R. N., & Janelle, C. (2000). Minimizing error in measurement of error: A proposed method for calculation of error in a two-dimensional motor skill. Perceptual and Motor Skills, 90, 253-261.
Kim, S. S., Kim, W. J., & Kim, H. E. (2005). The study of thermo-physiological responses with near infrared lighted garments at a hot environment. Journal of the Korea Society of Clothing Industry, 7 (6), 665 - 672.
Maganaris, C. N., Collins, D. & Sharp, M. (2000) Expectancy effects and strength training: do steroids make a difference? The Sport Psychologist, 14, 272 - 278.
Pollo, A., Carlino, E., & Benedetti, F. (2008) The top-down influence of ergogenic placebos on muscle work and fatigue. The European Journal of Neuroscience, 28, 379 - 388.
Shapiro, A. K., & Shapiro, E. (1997) The powerful placebo: From ancient priest to modern physician. Baltimore: John Hopkins University Press.
Shiraishi, M., Suzuki, K., Nakizi, S., Sugawara, K., Sugita, N., & Suzuki, K. J. (1996) Effect of linear polarized near-infrared ray irradiation on the chemiluminescence of human neutrophils and serum opsonic activity. Japanese Journal of Hygiene, 50, 1093 - 1102.
Singer, R. N., Llewellyn, J., & Darden, E. (1973) Placebo and competitive placebo effects on motor skill. Research Quarterly, 44, 51 - 58.
DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18533/journal.v2i9.219
- There are currently no refbacks.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
If you find difficulties in submitting manuscript please forward your doc file to firstname.lastname@example.com. Our support team will assist you in submission process and other technical matters.
In order to get notifications on inbox please add theartsjournal.org in your email safe list.
Journal of Arts and Humanities (Print) ISSN:2167-9045
Journal of Arts and Humanities (Online) ISSN: 2167-9053
[Journal of Arts and Humanities previously published by MIR Center for Socio-Economic Research, MD, USA. From February 2018 this journal is published by the LAR Center Press, OR, USA]


text:
Ian F. Hunt BA Digital Media Production – Graduation 2013 June 28th
I thought it would be time to update this page with the news that after 3 years of hard but enjoyable work studying at the Arts University Bournemouth I have now officially Graduated with a BA (Hon's) 2.1 in Digital Media Production.
This is the last time that I expect to post anything to this Blog and instead I plan to concentrate on the update of my Blog Clickformedia – click on the link to go to Clickformedia.
Over the last 3 years I have found that I have been at my most creative when working with a camera, either taking stills or video as a DSLR Cinematographer. As a DSLR Cinematographer I have also acquired an interest in the narrative/storytelling and producing short films. This then leads on to an interest in making Documentaries and becoming a documentary filmmaker, not in any specific mode, I'm happy to mix the Poetic with the Observational and would not be adverse to attempting the Expository form of documentary. The subject can be as diverse as the form, although my interests are leaning towards exploring the British way of life. The early pioneers of The British Documentary Film Movement between 1926 and 1946 lead the way. The work of John Grierson in the 1930's and his philosophy applied to film making inspires me to adopt this style and re-introduce and update this for the 21st century.
Documentary has become much more popular in recent times. There are many factors involved in this new interest in documentary, for example; they are relatively cheap to produce, they satisfy an audiences demand for voyeurism (fly on the wall), they are generally factual. I say generally factual because it is of course possible to produce a documentary with just one side of a story and of course technology lets us manipulate images in infinite ways. It is therefore important to state at the outset of anything a filmmaker produces whether this is a factual or fictional film, but of course this rule has been broken on may occasions where fiction has been presented as fact.


text:
Dateline: Philadelphia, 1704 to 1705. The description of corruption and vices that these new laws assume is startling. You are there!
Tag Archives: crime and punishment in colonial Philadelphia
The Richardsons: Dysfunctional Quaker Family
Dateline: 1683 to 1700, Pennsylvania and West Jersey. The head of household served in the highest level of government of the Province of Pennsylvania, but his own really bad behavior brought him down.


text:
The BCCI has approved the Indian Cricketers Association (ICA), the body formed as per the board's new constitution to look after the interest of former players.
The ICA is not affiliated to Federation of International Cricketers' Association (FICA) and is only open to former men and women cricketers, unlike the players' associations in most countries.
"The Board of Control for Cricket in India ("BCCI") hereby formally recognises the Indian Cricketers' Association (the "ICA"), a non-profit company limited by guarantee incorporated on 5 July, 2019 under Section 8 of the Companies Act, 2013, as the official association for ex-cricketers in India," read an official BCCI notice.
"It is clarified that, until further notice of the BCCI, no entity other than the ICA will be accorded recognition by the BCCI as an association of ex-cricketers," it added.
The functioning of ICA will be independent of BCCI's functioning and the association will have to generate its own funds even though the board will provide some initial grants.
Former India cricketers Kapil Dev, Ajit Agarkar and Shantha Rangaswamy are the directors at ICA and will hold their positions until elections are held.


text: sullivanke 0 Report post Posted January 23, 2009 BigRed, Our district just submitted IPSA and Plan Documents to see if they will comply..... I was just wondering, if they DO comply, what funds, out of the 20,000 that they advertise, would be available to our district? My concern is that only funds which are high cost would be available. So, who chooses what funds will be available? Im assuming the School District? If this is the case, Would Vanguard or Fidelity be options, If they werent able (independantly) to sing our documents (thats to say, Fidelity was removed from our vendor list, would 403basp be able offer these?) Thanks for your efforts. Is that link you listed 403basp pending districts? Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites


text:
Economic Insights: Warning, bumps ahead
Stronger than expected economic growth is tempered by a fading fiscal stimulus, inverted yield curves and ever-changing trade policy
The outlook for the global economy does not appear as dire as it did earlier in the year, but a decelerating global environment also creates some minor speed bumps for the U.S. economy.
Economic growth surprised on the upside during the first quarter. Annualized growth of 3.2 percent represented the best start to a calendar year for the U.S. economy since 2015. The year-over-year growth rate in the first quarter, also 3.2 percent, came in just above our expectations. Inventories and net exports drove the upside surprise. And while not directly measured, looser financial conditions during the first quarter undoubtedly helped, with the stock market recovering all the lost ground from the four the quarter. We foresaw the economy growing at a roughly 3 percent pace to start the year, then slowing to roughly 2 percent year-over-year by the end of 2019. With fiscal stimulus fading and the fed funds rate 100 bps higher than a year ago, growth should slow accordingly. Additionally, global economic growth has clearly downshifted. The outlook for the global economy does not appear as dire as it did earlier in the year, but a decelerating global environment also creates some minor speed bumps for the U.S. economy. Yet once again a familiar pattern among developed economies is occurring — the U.S. economy is decoupling from the rest of the developed world. The divergence between a relatively robust U.S. economy and weakening in other major developed economies replaced the concerted acceleration in global growth observed in 2017. With trade tensions returning to the fore, the road to robust economic growth looks more uncertain. Therefore, we anticipate that economic growth in the U.S. for 2019 should register in the mid-2 percent range for 2019, slowing down as the year unfolds.
While we remain cautiously optimistic that tax legislation has slightly boosted investment in the economy, we see other signs the "sugar high" is wearing off.
Fiscal stimulus fading
While growth during the first quarter surprised to the upside, the underlying data shows that the fiscal stimulus implemented last year (primarily via tax cuts and secondarily via government spending increases) is fading. While we remain cautiously optimistic that tax legislation has slightly boosted investment in the economy, we see other signs the "sugar high" is wearing off. First, growth peaked during the second quarter of 2018 when the impact from tax cuts first hit. Since then growth has been pulling back, though inconsistently. Second, income growth continues to lag spending growth. This likely means that once the impact from the tax cuts are part of the economic base (starting with next quarter) the impact from consumption should slow. Additionally, major sentiment indexes, such as the ISM manufacturing and nonmanufacturing indexes, are already pointing to some rocky roads ahead for companies. And productivity growth, currently enjoying a bit of a surge, should fall back along with the economic growth rate.
However, we also do not foresee an abrupt slowdown in the major drivers of the U.S. economy. We still believe that recession fears for 2019 look overblown. The labor market, already the strongest in half a century, should tighten as the year unfolds. The unemployment rate could still fall slightly but should remain below 4 percent while wage growth remains above 3 percent. That should provide consumers with the ability to continue to spend, even if the pace eases. But a lack of qualified labor continues to constrain growth, with 7.5 million positions open but unfilled. Companies seem (and we stress seem) willing to invest a bit more, particularly in intellectual property, given the temporary tax incentives to do so. Government spending does not appear on the verge of a significant pullback with the federal budget balance widening over time. And net exports — a bit of a wildcard given trade policy — could help a bit as well.
Trade policy reemerges as the key wild card in setting monetary policy.
Interest rate guard rails
Over the last few months, the Fed has significantly walked back its stance on future rate hikes. As recently as October, the Fed was planning multiple rate hikes in 2019. Since then it has continued to downshift its own forecast for the fed funds rate. Deteriorating financial markets provided the initial impetus for this stalling, with the stock market undergoing a significant correction in the fourth quarter of last year. Since then, financial conditions have eased. But despite continued economic growth, inflation has not accelerated the way the Fed had anticipated. In recent periods, inflation has cooled slightly due to transitory factors. We expect modest acceleration in inflation in 2019. Yet because we do not anticipate significant weakening in the economy, the Fed finds itself between guard rails on rate policy. Inflation should not warrant additional rate hikes in 2019 yet underlying growth does not warrant any rate cuts. Reasonably, we think the Fed should not change interest rate policy for the balance of the year. It still looks set to end its quantitative tightening program and wind down the paring back of its balance sheet by the fourth quarter. The Fed thus is not out of the monetary policy game completely. But it will sit back and observe the data as it comes in, looking for clearer direction on either inflation or underlying economic momentum. Trade policy reemerges as the key wild card in setting monetary policy. A more benign trade policy allows the Fed to remain patient and data-driven. A more damaging trade policy could force the Fed's hand.
Even with the Fed boxed in by economic reality, interest rates sent important signals in the first quarter. The yield curve inverted (with short-term Treasury rates above long-term Treasury rates) for the first time since before the Great Recession. An inverted yield curve continues to present one of the best, though not infallible, signs that indicate the economy is heading down the road to recession. The inversion in the first quarter did not reach either the magnitude nor duration that we have observed in prior business cycles, but it served as a warning. In recent days the yield curve inverted once again, indicating that the outlook for the economy remains cautious and markets will respond to any factor that they view as negative. We do not expect much movement this year at the short or long end of the curve, but the shape of the curve should prove very instructive.
Trade policy makes a move
After falling back for several months, trade policy made a move toward the front of concerns surrounding the economy. The U.S. administration decided to increase existing tariffs on imports from China to 25 percent from 10 percent, covering roughly $250 billion worth of imports. This increase occurred after the administration felt like China was renegotiating terms after months of progress. China retaliated with tariffs on $60 billion of imports from the U.S. Because China knows that it runs a significant surplus in goods trade with the U.S. — $122 billion of imports from the U.S. in 2018 versus $540 billion of exports to the U.S. — they could take additional measures such as discouraging or restricting the importation of certain goods. That could likely require further measures from the U.S. administration, but those are apparently being mooted. If the U.S. administration adds imports on the additional $300 billion of imports from China, they will almost certainly respond with more tariffs of their own. The precise impact on the U.S. economy seems opaque because too many issues remain unresolved. For now, with the tariffs in place as of the time of publishing this outlook we foresee trade policy mildly restricting economic growth by roughly 10-20 basis points this year and 30-40 basis points next year. Any changes will alter our assessment of impact but are virtually impossible to predict.
Implications for CRE
For commercial real estate (CRE) we hold to our view that we foresee little deterioration in space market fundamentals this year. Net absorption has slowed across some markets, falling behind new completions. That combination produced slightly rising vacancy rates in some property types and markets and flat vacancy rates in others. At this relatively late stage of the CRE cycle we are not surprised to see some upward pressure on vacancies and correspondingly downward pressure on rent growth (though no widespread declines in rent yet). New completions remain a relative non-factor as they have throughout most of the current expansion, save for certain pockets. Our proprietary forecast model continues to show vacancy flat to slightly up across markets in 2019 while rent growth continues to slow slightly. That reflects an environment of continued economic growth and demand for space. As net absorption slows supply could because more of a factor over time, even though we do not foresee a significant surge in construction like the ones that have occurred in previous business cycles. Trade policy clouds the picture here as well, most directly for industrial real estate which could see dampened demand for space if trade skirmishes turn into a full trade war. Markets driven by imports from China, including major hubs on the West Coast, possess the greatest risk of fallout. Retail also sits in the way of oncoming trade problems. Thus far, the tariffs implemented by the U.S. have been on intermediate goods used by companies. Consequently, the impact hits companies most directly. But the increase in the tariff rate on intermediate goods plus the potential for tariffs on consumer goods means a potential increase in prices of consumer goods which could lessen demand. This has already occurred on several goods that fall under tariffs, including washers and dryers, so it is reasonable to expect something similar for other consumer goods.
On the capital markets side, with the Fed on hold for the time being, transaction volume and pricing could get a bit of a boost, though likely not a turbo boost. Transaction volume could be propped up a bit by largely unchanged rates. Investor appetite which remains strong but somewhat wary of pricing, could surge if investors are emboldened by the lack of rate hikes. At a minimum, it gives buyers and sellers time to assess deals without the risk of additional rate hikes this year hanging over their heads and potentially forcing their hands. But the longer the Fed sits on hold with a relatively strong underlying economy, the greater the probability that an asset bubble (including CRE) emerges like in the two previous business cycles. The Fed does not have a good recent track record on extending the business cycle without engendering an asset bubble. Currently, we do not believe that a bubble in CRE exists. But across several markets, particularly the institutional gateway markets, cap rates are hovering at or near historically-low levels. We will closely watch the markets for signs of a bubble forming as the year unfolds.
Risks and closing thoughts
Underlying economic momentum is slowing as fiscal stimulus fades. Higher interest rates after four rate hikes last year should moderate economic activity versus 2018, even as rates sit on hold this year. Scarcity of qualified labor to fill open positions restricts the ability of the economy to grow, particularly with productivity growth set to slow. And the wild card of trade policy, which seemed benign until recently weeks, now presents a serious complication for forecasters because those decisions are often politically expedient but economically counterproductive. We sit less than two months away from the current economic expansion becoming the longest in U.S. history. We expect the economy to break this record. But even in the short term, things look more challenging than they did just a year ago.
In addition to the ongoing U.S.-China situation, other geopolitical risks remain relevant. Populism and key elections dot the landscape in 2019. Brexit, likely delayed until the fall, remains another political wild card. The domestic political situation remains rife with rancor, even in the wake of the Mueller report's release. Policymaking will remain contentious in such an environment, even over issues that should present little debate. For example, raising the federal government's debt ceiling must occur by September or the government will need to implement extraordinary measures to avoid defaulting on any debt. Lastly, oil prices remain so difficult to predict because of their geopolitical nature. Last year they declined significantly after many had forecasted continued increases. Oil prices have quietly creeped back up in recent months. While the U.S. has reemerged as an energy superpower due to the shale revolution, higher oil prices still tend to restrict global economic growth and present another pot hole on an already uneven road.