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Written by:
Diana West
Friday, October 11, 2013 4:36 AM
This week's syndicated column
Thirty-two years ago, Ronald Reagan gave his first Inaugural Address. His words still illuminate.
"We are a nation that has a government – not the other way around," he said. "And this makes us special among the nations of the Earth."
For the past nearly two weeks, some of the temporary custodians of our government – President Barack Obama and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, to name two – have impressed upon the nation their scorn for this same founding principle. That, of course, means their scorn for Us, the People. Above all, in trying to force House Republicans to fund Obamacare against the wishes of the voters who elected them, they want us to understand that we don't "have" a government, the government has us.
And not only us, but everything else. That's why, for the first time, I feel like a tenant in my own country as President Obama has assumed the role of landlord.
Meanwhile, House Republicans passed at least 10 "mini" bills to fund services from the National Institutes of Health, including cancer trials for children ("Listen, why would we want to do that?" as Senate Leader Reid notoriously asked), to Veterans Affairs, to national parks, to the District of Columbia. The Democrat majority in the Senate, however, refused to approve them. In alliance with the White House, theirs is the strategy of the monolith: all or nothing.
Why? If Congress funds the more popular or relied-upon parts of the federal government, the American people won't mind a bit not funding or even defunding the unpopular or unnecessary parts, and that includes Obamacare. Conversely, Democrats really seem to believe that only in a total shutdown will Americans feel "maximum pain." According to such thinking, in our pain lies Democratic gain.
It makes a great party motto: "In pain they trust." Engender enough of it and the Democrats think they'll drive right over the Republicans to a virtual one-party state.
But maybe the grand strategy backfired. Something's wrong when Landlord Obama, his administration busy ordering up "barrycades" and roadblocks for everything from the Grand Tetons to the Smoky Mountains, ekes out just a 37 percent approval rating this week.
It rankles. I don't think Americans will ever forget this president for using the 2013 budget battle shutdown – the 18th in three decades – to lower booms and erect "keep out" signs all over the country just as though he owns it. It started at the World War II Memorial, where our veterans have been barricaded out of the open-air plaza they fought for and even built, since much of the private funds that constructed it came from veterans groups. From that symbolic spot on the Washington Mall – where, also symbolically, illegal aliens have received special privileges as when an "amnesty" rally was permitted to proceed despite the shutdown – a New Obama Order has taken shape. Unexpectedly, this federal flexing has been most visibly enforced by a thuggish National Park Service (NPS).
Incredibly, we have now seen NPS, in the name of the shutdown, block access to everything from 1,100 square miles of prime fishing in Florida Bay to scenic overlooks along the Potomac River. We've seen kids prevented from practicing soccer on a field deemed "the government's," and the privately run, privately staffed Claude Moore Colonial Farm shuttered (though it finally reopened just this morning), both in McLain, Va. We've seen the NPS drop orange road cones to prevent drivers from pulling over to catch a glimpse of Mount Rushmore; tourists hustled out of Yellowstone by NPS and ordered not to snap pictures of bison on their way out (no "recreating" allowed in a shutdown). We've seen "barrycades" go up around the famed geyser Old Faithful to obstruct the view from a nearby lodge. Walking through Rock Creek Park, the national parkland in Washington, D.C., I've seen a massive concrete barrier, courtesy of the NPS, blocking access to a tiny parking lot (four slots) adjacent to a foot trail through the woods.
Since when is the manpower required to block four parking spaces by the woods considered an "essential" government service? Since rubbing the nation's face in the shutdown became the president's policy. It's little wonder, then, that Twitter has taken to calling the White House the "Spite House." From such petty tyrannies – look out.
Fortunately, the answer lies in the very next lines in Reagan's 1981 Inaugural Address: "Our government has no power except that granted it by the people. It is time to check and reverse the growth of government, which shows signs of having grown beyond the consent of the governed."


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Local Boston Marathon runners, volunteers exhilarated
FALL RIVER — Maybe John Riley of Somerset said it best.
"It was about the now," he said, speaking Monday afternoon, after the conclusion of the Boston Marathon, a race marked, but not forever changed, by last year's bombing.
Riley was a volunteer worker at the finish line of last year's race. This year found him volunteering at the starting line.
"The mood was totally upbeat and positive," he said of this year's race.
"I'm walking across Boston Common right now," Riley said via cell phone. "It's a beautiful day."
University of Massachusetts Amherst student and 2010 Bishop Stang High School graduate Corinne Ainsworth ran the marathon Monday to help raise money for a scholarship fund in memory of Krystle Campbell, one of three people killed during last year's bombing.
"It was my first marathon ever," Ainsworth said Monday. "I ran it for Krystle Campbell."
Ainsworth said she finished the race and she'd done well.
"I'm happy with my time," she said.
As for the mood, Ainsworth was at a loss for words.
"Unexplainable," she said. "I heard 'Boston Strong' every minute of the race. "Everyone was screaming it.
"It linked us all together," she said.
Last year, Westport resident Susan Darmody was a half-mile from the finish line when the race was stopped. This year she ran to the end.
"I absolutely finished this year," she said, adding that she felt "hungry and tired but good."
"This was the first marathon I finished," Darmody said.
Like Ainsworth, Darmody said the crowd was definitely behind the runners.
"It felt the same as last year during the first half," Darmody said. "People were screaming.
"The second half of the race, security kicked in a lot more," she said. "That really took a little away from it.
"I know they had to do that," Darmody said.
Like others in the race, Darmody said the crowd and the athletes know it's important for the race to continues it always has.
"It was back to the runners," she said. "Back to now."

subset: commoncrawl


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A single challenge registration confirmation email was CCed to everyone who entered, handing over a complete email list in the process. The BCC failure gaffe was brought to our attention by a Reg reader who questioned the mistake, a violation of the challenge's privacy policy. He received a reply blaming "human and administrative error" for the cock-up, so we can rule out the possibility that the CC to BCC error was somehow part of the forensic challenge itself.
Of course, this was a trivial mistake and no real harm was done, but people are entitled to hold the Cyber Security Challenge team to a higher standard of security aware behaviour than would otherwise be the case.
In a statement, the organisers of the challenge apologised for the minor snafu and promised to review their procedures to prevent a repetition of the incident.
An administrative error this week resulted in some competitors email addresses being copied rather than blind copied in an email. We apologise to anyone who was affected by this mistake.
We immediately set in motion a review of our processes and are actively seeking to minimise the risk of any further errors.
The email, which was sent on Monday, contained 370 unique email addresses. ®


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Every week, The GLAAD Wrap brings you LGBT-related entertainment news highlights, fresh stuff to watch out for, and fun diversions to help you kick off the weekend.
1) In Angels Crest, opening this Friday, a small Rocky Mountains community is devastated as a young father faces tragedy and loses his son following a moment of thoughtlessness. As the prosecution starts to cast blame, the tight-knit community begins to come apart. Two of Angel Crest's residents are a "gruff, no nonsense" lesbian played by Kate Walsh and her partner portrayed by Elizabeth McGovern. Watch the trailer below.
2) This year's GLAAD Media Awards Outstanding Music Artist, the Scissor Sisters, will be kicking off the new year with a preview of their new album set to be released later in 2012. Fans will be able to listen to 'Shady Love' on BBC Radio One's website (http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio1/) between 5 a.m.-8 a.m. EST.
3) Filmmakers Moby Longinotto and Aviva Wishnow have taken their short documentary The Joneses to Kickstarter in hopes of turning it into a full-length feature. Trevor is a 34-year-old virgin, and Brad was born with brain damage. Both live in a trailer park in a small town in Mississippi with their transgender parent, Jheri Rae Jones. Brad is now 40 and never had a serious girlfriend, while Jheri at 70 still has an active dating life but is ready to find true love which can be difficult as a transgender woman in the South. In the full-length documentary, filmmakers want to continue to tell the story of this loving family as each of them looks for romance in their own way. To find out more, watch the video below and head to the documentary's Kickstarter page.


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Even the U.S. Postal Service thinks Floridians are bonkers. This year alone, there have been eight completely unrelated incidents where someone crashed a car into a post office. But that statistic only covers Central Florida. The rest of the state is another story.
In response, the Postal Service recently released a public service announcement with handy tips on how not to crash into a post office.
Insert Bugs Bunny gif... now.
WWSB7 reported that the tip sheet includes friendly reminders to "Avoid distracted driving; Proceed slowly and carefully when pulling in, and backing out, of parking spaces; Visibly check to see whether your foot is on the gas pedal or the brake pedal," as well as "Visibly check to see if the vehicle is in Park, Reverse or Drive."
Of course, it doesn't help that 4 million of the Sunshine State's 15 million drivers are over the age of 60 (and one might argue based upon the regularity of wacky news headlines emanating from down that way that a solid third of the rest exhibit signs of genetic dysfunction and/or methamphetamine fanaticism). Elderly drivers, while they tend to be more careful behind the wheel than most of the rest of us, often have a tough time turning in their keys when it's time to stop driving.
Most of the accidents in Central Florida happened because drivers stepped on their cars' accelerator pedals instead of hitting the brakes. But there was one who said she saw something falling out of the sky and drove into a post office lobby to get out of the way. It's good to know that there are people who answer to a higher power. (Hat tip to Grant!)
Photo credit: Lawrence Gray/Orlando Sentinel via corvetteblogger.com


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BRUINS NOTEBOOK: Bruins defenseman Andrej Meszaros glad for an opportunity to play
BOSTON – A good postseason experience got a lot better for Andrei Meszaros on Saturday afternoon.
Out of the lineup for the previous four games, Meszaros returned to the rotation on Saturday for Game 2 against the Canadiens when Bruins coach Claude Julien decided to pull Matt Bartkowski. Meszaros quickly made an impact, picking up an assist on Daniel Paille's first period goal and he turned in a generally solid performance overall (1 shot, even plus-minus in 16 minutes, 35 seconds).
His only real misgiving: A roughing penalty at 16:23 of the second period, which the Canadiens used to take a 2-1 lead.
"I wish I could take it back because they scored on (the power play)," said Meszaros, who was caught retaliating after his helmet had been knocked off by Montreal's Tomas Plekanec. "I thought we could have both been called, but we didn't, so next game I've just got to take the punch or whatever, and just walk away, I guess."
Saturday's was the 49th career postseason appearance of Meszaros' nine-year NHL career and third this year. (He also played Games 1 and 2 against Detroit when Bartkowski was stricken by flu.) The former Flyer, obtained at the March 4 trade deadline, had been all but absent from the playoffs since 2011 – injuries limited him to one game in 2012, and Philadelphia failed to qualify last year.
"It's nice to be back in the playoffs, obviously, competing for the Cup," said Meszaros, who played 34 games over three postseasons in Ottawa – 20 during the Senators' 2007 run to the final. "It's always fun being in the playoffs."
Julien, who also took rookie Justin Florek out of the Game 2 lineup in favor of Jordan Caron, didn't elaborate much when asked Sunday about the lineup changes. Bartkowski struggled in Game 1 against the Habs, taking two penalties that led to Montreal power-play goals – including P.K. Subban's winner in the second overtime.
"It's what we decided to do," Julien said. "It's as simple as that. I think we felt we needed a change and we made that."
Meszaros didn't go into much analysis, either. He was just glad to get a chance to play again and hopes he did enough to stay in the lineup when the series resumes Tuesday night in Montreal.
"I had to prepare myself because you never know what's going to happen – if there's going to be injuries or whatever," he said. "Obviously, being out of the lineup is tough for anybody, not just for me.
"I'm glad I got the opportunity to go out there and play (on Saturday). It was a fun game."
SURGERY FOR McQUAID
Defenseman Adam McQuaid's season is over, but not because of the quad injury that has sidelined him since Jan. 19. Bruins general manager Peter Chiarelli announced on Sunday that McQuaid had undergone arthroscopic surgery on his right ankle on Thursday and that the expected recovery period is eight weeks.
It's not known how or when McQuaid, who first hurt his left quad muscle on Nov. 9, sustained the ankle injury. He came back twice from the leg injury during the regular season and was continuing to work toward a comeback as recently as the Bruins' first-round series against Detroit, when he was skating with other injured players.
Meanwhile, injured winger Chris Kelly remains sidelined by a back injury sustained on April 8 at Minnesota. Asked about Kelly on Sunday, coach Claude Julien said "every day is a better day for him, so that's basically all I can tell you."
Kelly hasn't been seen skating since he got hurt.


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There are many different sources of information on the Monterey Institute campus today, and it can be challenging to find the information you are looking for in a timely manner. In response to this problem, we recently implemented a new solution that uses RSS feeds to channel information into a single central campus information resource.
This new resource is a campus information portal located on our Moodle site at elearning.miis.edu<http://www.elearning.miis.edu/>. The revamped Moodle site now incorporates the master events calendar and a list of the most recent articles published on our new campus-wide blog aggregator, the Monterey Institute Focus. The Focus, located at www.miisfocus.com<http://www.miisfocus.com/>, collects posts from a wide range of campus-based blogs into a single, comprehensive information resource that also feeds directly onto the Moodle home page.
In the near future, Ashley Arrocha will be providing instructions to student clubs on how to set up blogs and/or submit stories directly to the Monterey Institute Focus.
The portal accomplishes many of our key goals regarding funneling campus information into a single point of contact for campus community members that will continue to be enhanced and improved.


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What better way to see out the year than with another sneak peek from the Hey, Valentine set in the upcoming Occasions catalgoue, which will be released January 6th, 2015!
Am I convincing you to add this set to your wish list yet?? If not, I still have another card to show you, lol!
If you would like to order one or more of the items I used to create today's project, simply click on the items above to be taken to my Online Store. If you live anywhere in New Zealand, I would love to be your Demonstrator. Please allow "Demonstrator contact" so I can thank you properly when you place your order!


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A couple months ago, Hollie called me again, and showed me this photo on Pinterest that she wanted to use as inspiration for the next session:
Source: pinksugarphotography.typepad.com via Meredith on Pinterest
{PS- If you aren't familiar with Pink Sugar Photography, be sure to click on the source link--AMAZING}
I don't mind at all when people show me inspiration photos that they love prior to a photo shoot, but there's always that balance as a photographer from trying to take that inspiration without copying the other photographer too closely--'cause let's face it, even if imitation is the highest form of flattery, no one likes to be copied exactly. But on the other hand, we all draw inspiration from each others' work...nearly every photographer has a "Photos I Love" board on Pinterest, right?
So, when someone brings me an inspiration photo, what I usually try to do is talk with the person to narrow down what the person loves--is it the lighting, the poses, the type of location, the outfits, etc in order to be able to capture the feel without being too literal. For Hollie, I think it was mostly the field and the warm lighting that she loved, so I decided to use my brother and sister-in-law's back property that I used for the self-portraits for Lee Jeans and go with a sunset shoot. And then, Oregon weather didn't cooperate at all, and gave us cloudy and overcast for the next two weeks. Once we had a day of sun, we jumped on it, and this is what I came up with...I think (hope--you tell me!) that it does a good job capturing the "feel" of Hollie's inspiration photo without being too literal:


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Brandon Meriweather returned to the field for the first time since November and was up to his old ways on his first tackle of the season.
The Washington Redskins safety, who has been fined multiple times by the NFL for helmet-to-helmet hits, launched himself at Green Bay Packers rookie running back Eddie Lacy early in Sunday's game. Lacy suffered a concussion on the hit and wouldn't return to the game, according to Fox's Pam Oliver.
Lacy was falling to the ground and had lowered his head to brace for impact when Meriweather launched into him. Meriweather's helmet hit Lacy near the jaw and violently snapped his head backward.
It wasn't a cheap shot, but given the helmet-to-helmet hit, Lacy's injury and Meriweather's past, the league office is likely to review the play. Mike Pereira said it's not clear what the end result will be.
After watching the replay of the Lacy play, the question is did the defender line him up w/ and hit him w/ the crown? The league will review
— Mike Pereira (@MikePereira) September 15, 2013
In 2010, Meriweather was fined $40,000 for two helmet-to-helmet hits while playing with the New England Patriots. One year later, as a member of the Chicago Bears, the safety was fined $20,000 for another hit.
Later in the game, Meriweather was knocked out while trying to tackle James Starks. He left the game with a concussion, according to Fox, and will not return.
Click "Next" to check out photos from Week Two


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The UIRC posted a great interview this week. Kent Seki was the Visualization and HUD Supervisor for Iron Man. I loved the futuristic interfaces for Iron Man I put them right up there with the UIs from
Minority Report:
and The Island:
For Ironman , Kent really needed to make UIs that were credible, realistic and modern in order to establish the main character's identity. The Article really does a great job of giving us some insight to the challenges that were presented to him, and Kent's creative process that addressed those challenges…
Catch the article here:
Another noteworthy article released this week was with Kim Lennox from Adaptive Path. She discusses designing for exceptional mobile UIs:


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What Was America's First Black Town?
As the nation turns its attention to the 150th anniversary of the Emancipation Proclamation, it's worth noting that decades before the United States was even formed, African Americans lived free in a town of their own — at least for a while.
Sometime between March and November of 1738, Spanish settlers in Florida formed a town named Gracia Real de Santa Teresa de Mose, two miles to the north of St. Augustine. Initially, it consisted of 38 men, all fugitive slaves, "most of them married," who had fled to Florida for sanctuary and freedom from enslavement in the Carolinas and Georgia. It came to be known as Fort Mose.
The enclave was the first line of defense between the Spanish settlers in Florida and their enemies, the English colonists to the north in Carolina (which did not officially split into North and South Carolina until 1729, and then the Southern part of South Carolina split in 1732 to form Georgia). Fort Mose was manned entirely by armed black men, under the leadership of Francisco Menendez, who became the leader of the black militia there in 1726. It deserves to be remembered as the site of the first all-black town in what is now the United States, and as the headquarters of the first black armed soldiers commanded by a black officer, who actively engaged in military combat with English colonists from the Carolinas and Georgia.
Menendez, the first African-American military commander, was a colorful character. Historian Jane Landers is at work on a full-length biography of him, which I hope will be the basis of a documentary or a feature film.
Menendez was born a Mandinga in West Africa at the end of the 17th century. He was captured and served as a slave in South Carolina until the Yamasee Native Americans fought the British settlers in 1715, during which Menendez managed to escape to St. Augustine, Fla. In 1738, he became the leader of the free black town, and was formally commissioned as captain of the free black militia of St. Augustine.
As you might imagine, Spanish Florida exercised a powerful draw on the Carolina slaves' collective imagination, starting in the late 1600s. It was the African-American slaves' first Promised Land. At least since 1687, if slaves made it down to Florida, and professed belief in "the True Faith" — Roman Catholicism — they were declared to be free. News of this haven from enslavement spread through the slave grapevine. And the concentration of these fugitive slaves in St. Augustine led to the creation of the first black town and fort in the U.S.
Landers observes that "As news of the foundation of Mose spread through the South Carolina plantations, groups of slaves broke loose and tried to make for Florida." And, indeed, in November 1738, 23 men, women and children escaped from Port Royal, S.C., to St. Augustine. Gov. Montiano refused to return them to their supposed "owners," just as his predecessors had done since 1687. In March 1739, four more slaves and an Irish servant also made their escape to St. Augustine using stolen horses.
Spanish Florida was the African-American slaves' first Promised Land. All of this was prelude to the famous Stono Rebellion in September 1739. Stono was the most violent and the bloodiest uprising of African-American slaves in the 18th century. And it was inspired, in part, by the promise of freedom that awaited escaping slaves south of the South Carolina and Georgia borders, in the Spanish haven of Florida. Stono is dramatic evidence that the "grapevine telegraph," as Booker T. Washington would dub the uncanny manner in which slaves communicated with each other plantation to plantation and state to state, was fully functional as early as the first half of the 18th century. (Even John Adams commented on this curious mechanism of communication among slaves, in a letter he wrote in 1775.)
On Sunday, Sept. 9, 1739, about 20 slaves, hailing (historians think) from Angola, killed two store attendants and stole arms and ammunition at Stono Bridge, south of Charleston. As they marched south heading toward Florida, their ranks swelled to about 100, and they continued to burn plantations and kill white settlers. A ferocious battle with the colonial militia left a field of death, including 20 of the colonists and 40 of the slaves. Slaves who fled were later captured and beheaded. But not even this unfortunate outcome deterred other slaves in the region from seeking their freedom: In June 1740, about 150 slaves rebelled near the Ashley River, just outside of Charleston. Fifty were captured and hanged.
Outraged by actions of the slaves at Stono, and fearful of more rebellions from slaves seeking to escape to Florida, the English countered with a siege of Florida between 1739 and 1740. They captured Fort Mose in 1740. As Landers reports, Captain Menendez and the Fort Mose militia allied with Native Americans to fight the invaders, culminating in a bloody battle in June 1740, in which Menendez and his forces attacked the British and killed 75 of their men. In the process, Fort Mose was destroyed.
Menendez would be captured and sold as a slave, but by 1759, he was free and once again in command at Mose, which had been reconstructed by the Spanish in 1752. By 1759, Mose consisted of 37 men, 15 women, seven boys and eight girls. In 1763, under the terms of the Treaty of Paris, the Spanish were forced to abandon Florida but gained Cuba in return. In August, Menendez led 48 men, women and children on the schooner Nuestra Senora de los Dolores (Our Lady of Sorrows) and sailed to Cuba, where they settled in Regla, a town near the city of Havana. Fort Mose is now memorialized as a national historic landmark.
Fifty of the 100 Amazing Facts will be published on The African Americans: Many Rivers to Cross website. Read all 100 Facts on The Root.
Find educational resources related to this program - and access to thousands of curriculum-targeted digital resources for the classroom at PBS LearningMedia.Visit PBS Learning Media


text: Famous Tantrik Baba in Gujarat Ahmedabad Surat Rajkotyou are captured with any type of problem and are not able to come out of that situation easily, then you can take the help of the Black Magic Spells and can get the solution in your life. This magic is in the existence from the centuries and now also it is widely used. It is applied by experienced holders as it is quite dangerous, so it is highly advised that no one should try it at home as it requires too much study and lots of practice. A person who can handle the patience as with it, he can also achieve the target of satisfying its clients. The main aim of the astrologers is to give pleasure to the clients and by using their knowledge and experience they are capable to bring the satisfaction level among its clients in an easy way. Black Magic Spells really works and it shows an accurate result if applied by an experienced person. By using the mantras and their power they solve the problem of its clients and it enables them to establish a trustworthy relationship with them. If your life is made hell by someone and you are unable to take the action against him, then you can always take the help of Black Magic Spells as it is a quick process and it always gives the best solution of your problem. Don't take stress and leave all your tension on us. We will use our experienced services and will solve your problem without wasting your precious time. Black Magic Spells are of various types and it is designed specially to solve the problem of each and every client. You have to explain about your problem to the astrologer and they will give you the solution accordingly. If you are unsuccessful in your life or your lover has left you alone, you want to earn money in your life or you want to establish your name in the society then don't go anywhere else..


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There's the potential for the next generation of touchscreen LCD vending machines to be an all out assault on our senses. So here's hoping more companies
will take this subtly animated approach instead of horrifying advertisements.
This concept machine, created by Sanden, Okaya Electronics, and Intel, uses a monstrous 65 inch transparent HD display that still lets shoppers see the actual products being sold. And instead of just playing full screen commercials with music blaring, a series of simple silhouetted animations and menus are used to entice shoppers to give up their pocket change.
But the futuristic vending machine isn't about improving the human experience, it's still about effectively selling crap. So it's also got a built-in camera that can identify the person using the machine as being male or female, young or old, providing advertisements and other animated content targeted towards their demographic. As long as it ensures there's always Coke in stock so I don't have to settle for a Sprite, they can bombard me with whatever they want. [DigInfo]


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WASHINGTON — Republicans controlling the House are proposing a huge cut to a transportation grant program championed by President Barack Obama. It funds road and bridge projects, light rail networks, port construction and bike paths.
The so-called TIGER grant program dates to Obama's 2009 economic stimulus bill and was funded at $600 million this year. Obama wants to nearly double the program's budget. But the newly released spending bill covering federal transportation and housing programs offers the administration just $100 million, an 83 percent cut from current levels.
The $52 billion measure maintains funding for community development block grants popular with local governments. It also fully funds an upgrade to the Federal Aviation Administration's NextGen air traffic control system.


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WASHINGTON (AP) — The U.S. Justice Department is investigating whether Las Vegas Sands Corp., owned by high-profile Republican donor Sheldon Adelson, broke federal law by failing to report millions of dollars of potentially laundered money transferred to its casinos by two high-rolling Las Vegas gamblers, according to the Wall Street Journal.
The U.S. attorney's office in Los Angeles is probing deposits made in the mid-2000s by a Mexican pharmaceutical businessman, later indicted for drug trafficking in 2007, and a California executive with Fry's Electronics, who later pled guilty to taking illegal kickbacks, the newspaper said, citing lawyers and federal officials working on the case.
The Journal said there are no indications that the investigation includes actions by Adelson, Sands' CEO and a major political donor for the Republican party. Adelson has pledged to spend as much as $100 million to help Republican candidates in this election cycle.
Federal investigators have begun focusing on casinos amid concerns that the industry's lax financial systems could be used for money laundering and other illegal activities, according to Justice Department officials cited by the Journal.
Sands Corp. did not immediately return calls from The Associated Press on Sunday. A company spokesman Ron Reese told the Wall Street Journal the company believes "it has acted properly and has not committed any wrongdoing."
Chinese-born Mexican businessman Zhenil Ye Gon transferred around $85 million to casinos owned by Sands in the middle of the last decade. He lost more than $125 million at Vegas casinos, according to an affidavit cited by the Journal.
Federal prosecutors say Ye Gon's use of Mexican exchange houses should have been a warning sign of suspicious activity to Sands employees. In July 2007, Ye Gon was indicted in the U.S. on charges of trafficking the illegal stimulant methamphetamine. The drug charges were dismissed in 2009, but Ye Gon is scheduled to be extradited to Mexico to face additional trafficking and laundering charges there.
The Justice Department is also investigating more than $100 million in money transfers by another Las Vegas high roller, Ausaf Umar Siddiqui, who was previously a vice president at Fry's Electronics. Siddiqui was arrested in 2009 for accepting illegal kickbacks. He pled guilty to the charges and is serving a six-year prison sentence.
Las Vegas Sands Corp. owns the Venetian and Palazzo resorts in Las Vegas, as well as similar resorts in Singapore and Macau. Macau is a former Portuguese colony near Hong Kong.


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Pinnacle Casino is committed to offering players some of the best Return to Player (RTP) values online and to transparently communicate detailed data to support this.
We contract eCOGRA to provide independent certified Game Payout Data Analysis for Pinnacle Casino.
Please visit the eCOGRA page for historical records on RTP.


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CME Options
Continuing Medical Education Topics
Pediatric Education Services at Primary Children's Medical Center, in partnership with the Medical Home Portal, offers Continuing Medical Education (CME) credits based on your reading the following diagnosis modules.
- Cornelia de Lange Syndrome
- Traumatic Brain Injury
Continuing Medical Education Quizzes
Please review the information page for each 1 hour CME offering and then use our Feedback page to notify us that you'd like to take the CME quiz. Include Subject: Name of Module, Name, Email (these are not optional for CME). You will receive a link to the quiz within 48 hours.


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What young boy would not want this pirate shelf hanging in their bedroom. The shelf is big enough to hold a small Pirates of the Caribbean collectible. It's about 10" long.
Over the last couple weeks I have received a few emails letting me know that some of you are having trouble opening the newsletter. The problem seems to be limited to only a few subscribers. I don't have a handle on exactly what is happening but I'm working to find the problem. It appears that Google is formatting the email incorrectly before the post goes out. A few blogger are reporting the same problem to Google but they have not responded yet. If anyone has any knowledge of what is going on I would appreciate the input.
Make A Donation


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Paul Gerhardt
Born: March 12, 1607, Gräfenhainichen (near Wittenberg), Germany.
Died: May 27, 1676, Lübben an der Spree, Spreewald, Germany.
Buried: In a crypt below the altar at Paul-Gerhardt-Kirche, Lübben an der Spree, Spreewald, Germany.
Gerhardt was the son of Christian Gerhardt, Burgermeister of Grafenhaynichen, near Wittenberg. He enrolled at the University of Wittenberg in 1628. In 1655, he married Anna Maria Berthold. He appears to have frequently preached in Berlin in the 1640's.
In 1651, Gerhardt was appointed, at the recommendation of the Berlin clergy, Lutheran Probst (chief pastor) at Mittenwalde, near Berlin. In 1657, Gerhardt returned to Berlin as third diaconus of St. Nicholas' church. However, Gerhardt became involved in the contest between Elector Friedrich Wilhelm (who was of the Reformed Church) and the Lutheran clergy of Berlin; Gerhard was deposed from his office in February 1666, though he still remained in Berlin. In November 1668, he accepted the post of archidiaconus at Lübben an der Spree, was installed in June, 1669, and remained there till his death. The motto on his portrait at Lübben read Theologus in cribro Satanae versatus (a theologian sifted in a sieve).
Source: The Cyber Hymnal


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I know the road to publication isn't easy. Most writers are so focused on getting published, they rarely think beyond that. What happens when you get an agent? What happens once the book is sold? We think we work hard on our novels prior to publication, but what about after?
Lisa shares a bit of her journey to publication with us. Some of this was previously published on her blog, The Paper Tiger. Lisa also agreed to answer some of my questions which you will find at the end of the article.
Writing a novel is a lot of work. Okay, I've known that for a while. I've written a few. This last one, the one that got me an agent and then a deal, took so much time and effort that I'd joke it was written in dog years. And that it was trying to kill me, I was pretty sure. That last bit might not have been a joke.
The part that I'd only previously known on an intellectual level is that getting published is also a lot of work. I mean, this should be obvious, and I sort of knew it, but until I went through it, I didn't actually know it.
All of the sudden, you're getting paid for your work. And people are depending on you. Your agent. Your editor. Your PR person. An entire infrastructure. You've signed a contract, and you have to deliver, quality work, on time. There are hard deadlines. Publication schedules. Catalogs for the upcoming season. I think that's the first time I really absorbed that the whole thing was real, when I downloaded Soho's catalog, read all of the book descriptions, the author bios. Wow, I thought. I'm going to be in one of these. Me and my book. Shit.
There's the book itself. Editorial revisions. Line edits. A galley proof yet to come. And then there's everything else that comes with being an author in the modern world. A bio. Photos. A new website. Marketing ideas. Where am I known? Who do I know? How can I help my own chances of success?
It's that whole notion of thinking of yourself and your work as a product, as a brand. Most of us writer types are introverts, and we can all fulminate against this cultural trend of marketing uber alles (and I have), but this is the reality. It's a part of our job, as authors. And if there's one thing this whole experience has brought home to me, it's that being a published author is a job.
Well, duh, right? And I've taken that sort of workman's approach to my writing in general for the past few years. A writing book I've often recommended to people suffering from creative blocks is Steven Pressfield's The War of Art. It's a little repetitive and has its metaphysical aspects which may or may not be helpful to a lot of people. But one of the basic messages I appreciated very much is, you have to think of your creative work as a job. Meaning, you can't wait around for the Muses to inspire you. Because what's the first rule of a job? You show up. Whether you're inspired or not. Whether you want to or not. Eventually that kind of discipline rewards you with productive output.
It worked for me, anyway. I'm not one of these writers who has to write, who churns out thousands of words at a sitting. It takes a lot of effort for me, a lot of the time. Ultimately I'm happier when I'm writing than when I'm not writing, so I make myself do it, whether I feel like it or not.You can carry over a lot of other things from thinking of your writing as a job.
You have to work with other people. At times you have to put aside your ego and listen to what others have to say about your work and accept their criticism. You have to distinguish between trivialities and the things that really matter to the integrity of your work.
This experience has given me new sympathy for publishers—and agents—and the reluctance they might have to take on debut authors. Though I think if you write a good book, it's pretty clear that you have some discipline, still, there's always that risk that a new novelist isn't going to be able to work to deadline, or work and play well with others, that she might be a big pain in the ass, and not worth the investment of time and money. Because that's the other thing you need to understand, if you don't know this already: agents and publishers are making a significant investment in you, of their own time and potential income.
Me, I take a lot of pride in my craftsmanship, and as I've gone through this process, I've realized that I also take a lot of pride in doing a good job. In getting the work done right, on time, or even ahead of schedule. This is a job that I really enjoy. One where I show up. One that I might even be good at. I like that.
- How long you've been writing with the view to getting published?
I've always taken my writing really seriously, but it's hard for me to determine when I became serious about being published. Early on I wrote some prose mostly for fun that got me some publishing interest, but I was too embarrassed to follow through with it. For a long time I focused on screenplays and teleplays, but they were pretty idiosyncratic and strange for the most part. Even though I'd tell myself I wanted that career, I wondered about my seeming inability to make the necessary compromises in what I was writing to have it (the one time I did a screenplay project for hire, I really didn't enjoy the process very much).
I then wrote a novel for fun, just as a way to keep my writing chops up, while I focused on that spec screenplay that was going to earn me six figures. I found out that I really liked writing novels way more than spec screenplays, so I kept going with that. I actually had some publishing interest in that book as well, but I always figured it was a serious long-shot (500 pages long! Sort of unclassifiable, semi-steam punk speculative fiction without any elves or dwarves!), and I gave up on subbing that when the editor who had liked it somewhat eventually passed. So ROCK PAPER TIGER was the first novel I wrote where from the beginning I had getting published in mind. And then, of course, the early drafts turned out weird and unclassifiable!
- How long were you shopping for an agent. Did you get many rejections before Nathan Bransford took you on?
It felt like forever, but it really wasn't that long. I think I had five or six passes before I tried Nathan Bransford of Curtis Brown. But I was already pretty discouraged. The responses I'd gotten from agents (when I got personalized responses) were contradictory, and I was convinced that I'd written yet another unclassifiable, unsalable, weird book.
I only tried Nathan because, when I was about to throw the book in a metaphoric drawer, one of the members of my writing group suggested I try him - "He has a blog, and he likes novels set in foreign countries." I did my research on what he was looking for - something which I strongly urge anyone who is querying agents to do rather than just sending out queries en masse - pounded out a new query letter over a rather large glass of wine, and sent it off.
- Once you were accepted by him, what did you have to go through to strike the deal?
Nathan felt that my book had a lot of potential but needed some revisions before it was ready for submission. He had a direction in mind and offered to reconsider the MS if I wanted to rewrite along those lines. I agreed with his critique - he really echoed things that I'd suspected but couldn't see as clearly as I needed to do the work on my own. So I did a series of rewrites with feedback from Nathan, who in addition to his agenting savvy is a great editor. By the time we got to a certain point in the process, when it became clear that I could get the book where it needed to be, he offered me representation.
I know that some writers might be wary of doing so much work with no guarantee of a contract at the end, but I think this was a really great way for both of us to test out the author/agent relationship and see how we worked together. Believe me, you want to have a good working relationship with your agent when you go through revisions and then the submission and publication process! And I'm sure that agents feel the same way about the writers they sign. It's a marathon, not a sprint.
- How did working with an agent change your perspective of publishing?
Working with Nathan and then being signed by him and Curtis Brown was life-changing for me. I do not exaggerate, corny as it sounds. I felt validated for my writing in a way that I hadn't before. Here's someone whose job depends on recognizing talent and whose income depends on making smart choices about who he signs.
For me, long accustomed to writing stuff that was too eccentric to sell, it was a huge confidence booster, and another big step in being able to separate myself from my work, to see it as a product, not some deep reflection of my soul or what have you. That may sound a little crass, but it's absolutely necessary to have that attitude to work as a professional author. You have to learn how to accept criticism without it taking it so personally.
- I know you love things Chinese. You've been learning the language, you've visited China many times. How much influence has your studies of/love of China influence your writing of Rock Paper Tiger?
Well, most of the book is set in contemporary China. That was a sort of commercial calculation on my part - I knew that people are interested in China, and that not that many American fiction writers have used modern China as a setting. I felt that I had the familiarity to write it with some authority.
China is a fascinating place it's a lot of fun to drop in some of the surreal details that are a part of the daily scenery there. (as an aside, I look for those details in any location I set a book - I'm planning a California road trip novel at some point, and believe me, there's plenty of surrealism here to go around!)
- Can you tell me a bit about the story itself?
Iraq war vet Ellie Cooper is down and out in Beijing, trying to lose herself in the alien worlds of performance artists and online gamers. When a chance encounter with a Uighur fugitive drops her down a rabbit hole of conspiracies, Ellie must decide whom to trust among the artists, dealers, collectors and operatives claiming to be on her side – in particular, a mysterious organization operating within a popular online game.
- When will Rock Paper Tiger be released?
June 2010, by Soho Press - who have been an absolute pleasure to work with. My editor, Katie Herman, did an amazing job on my book - and the care they've taken with things like the cover - have I mentioned how much I love the cover? - it's been a great experience. Also one that has really changed my perspective on what being a professional novelist is all about. Which is pretty much the topic of my post!
- Lisa, thank you for taking the time to answer a few of my questions. I loved your article. It makes sense and gives an insider's view of what happens once you've been sold as well as choices you have to make for your career as a novelist.
I wish you the very best with this book and can't wait until I can read it!
Lisa Brackmann has worked as an executive at a major motion picture studio, an issues researcher in a presidential campaign, and as the singer/songwriter/bassist in an LA rock band. She's lived and traveled extensively in China. A southern California native, Brackmann currently splits her time between Venice, California and Beijing, China.


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India is launching a campaign to repair its reputation as a global supplier of cheap high-quality drugs, responding to bans imposed by US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) on several suppliers.
As part of the charm offensive, New Delhi has invited global regulators, including the FDA, to visit Indian production units to get first-hand evidence of measures taken to ensure the quality of locally manufactured generics.
The move seeks to address US quality concerns that have prompted the FDA to slap a slew of sanctions on Indian generics, choking off growth in drug exports.
"Our quality standards are among the best in the world. If a neutral audit is done, it will find our true capabilities and strengths," Ashutosh Gupta, chairman of the Pharmaceuticals Export Promotion Council (Pharmexcil), which groups more than 3,700 exporters.
"The US is the biggest market for us. We are dealing with a lot of care. We want to fight these issues head on," said Gupta, also executive director at Medicamen, which supplies anti-malarials and other drugs to over 80 countries.
Worries about quality control in India's $15 billion drug industry have come to the fore in the past year as plants run by Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd and rival Wockhardt Ltd have been barred from sending drugs to the United States after falling short of the FDA's "good manufacturing practices".
The FDA has also issued import alerts — allowing the FDA to automatically detain products — to more than 20 Indian facilities since January 2013 on quality concerns, including plants of Ranbaxy, India's top drugmaker, and Sun Pharmaceuticals Industries Ltd.
That has hurt India's reputation as a supplier of safe, affordable drugs. Exports grew by just 2.6 per cent in the 2013-14 fiscal year ending in March to $15.04 billion. Two years ago, the growth rate was 23 per cent.
Gupta said the FDA has issued import alerts over issues of data documentation, testing facilities and procedures at Indian facilities. However, there was no issue with drug quality, he said. New Delhi plans to strengthen oversight following a US threat to launch a special review of India's regulation of drug patents and rule on market access to US companies.
It is also inviting Washington to hold broader trade talks once a new government is formed after a general election. Opinion polls show that opposition nationalist Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is likely to win the vote that ends on May 12. Results are due on May 16.
Brand Pharma
India is second only to Canada as a drug exporter to the United States, where it supplies about 40 percent of generic and over-the-counter drugs. The industry, which supplies drugs to nearly 200 countries, is concerned that curbs by the FDA have encouraged even regulators from Kenya and Ghana to seek plant audits.
"It is a challenge for us," P V Appaji, director-general of Pharmexcil, told reporters. "But in future, it can be a positive for us because it will help us improve the dark areas."
The industry, in collaboration with the Ministry of Commerce, is organising the 'iPHEX' international summit in Mumbai from May 21-23 to address buyer concerns.
Over 500 importers and 25 regulators from US, Europe, Africa and Latin America are likely to attend the meet, some of whom would visit plants and meet Indian regulators. The exporter body has also invited FDA and India regulators to meet suppliers in Hyderabad, Goa, Chandigarh and Ahmedabad to create awareness about required standards.
Operating procedures
"We are upgrading standard operating procedures in plants such as testing, documenting and packaging," Gupta told a news conference. Trade Ministry officials said the government planned to spend up to Rs 3,000 crore ($500 million) over five years to strengthen pharmaceutical education and research and train manpower and state regulators.
"There can be no compromise on the regulatory standards, quality parameters," said Sudhanshu Pandey, joint secretary in the Ministry of Commerce.
Analysts said India would need more time and efforts to address the quality concerns of the US and other regulators.
"It is not a panacea to solve the problems of the pharmaceutical sector," said Utkarsh Palnitkar, head of the life sciences practice at KPMG, who said he works closely with Pharmexcil. "You can't do it only by promotion, but focused promotion clearly will help put out the right message."
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User:Keith H. Turner
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I am a postdoctoral research fellow in the lab of Marvin Whiteley at The University of Texas at Austin. My research interests center mainly around the use of high-throughput sequencing-based techniques to investigate bacterial gene networks in disease. Mainly, this involves the use of Tn-Seq and related techniques to profile the relative fitness of tens of thousands of individual mutants simultaneously to map fitness determinants of pathogens. I am also interested in the growth and lifestyle of the opportunistic pathogen Pseudomonas aeruginosa as it pertains to disease in patients suffering from cystic fibrosis, burns or chronic wounds.
For more info, please check out Turner:Home


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Wolf Blitzer delivers the most important breaking news and political, international, and national security stories of the day. Tune to The Situation Room weekdays 5-7pm ET on CNN.
Men on motorcycles tear through a shopping mall to rob a jewelry store. CNN's Jeanne Moos reports on the daring heist.
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We had just seen the Ice Cream Float Boat on the lake.
Food trucks are hot, hot, hot these days.
Spotted Bruno's Gastro Truck in the parking lot as we were stopping to buy a few rolls of duct tape at Capps Home Building Center . Anna was going to make a duct tape wallet for her Dad's birthday present.
We'd just been boating with the family with a rented pontoon boat on Smith Mountain Lake and we were headed back to Hardy, VA. Next time we'll have to try something to eat from this shiny truck.


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On March 8, Michael Mann's lawyers, Cozen O'Connor, sent a legal letter to Minnesotans for Global Warming (of the famous Hide the Decline video) threatening them, ironically, with misappropriating Mann's likeness and, almost as an afterthought, defaming him "by leaving viewers with the incorrect impression that he falsified data to generate desired results in connection with his research activities":
We are writing to demand that you cease and desist any and all use of Dr Mann's likeness, which you have misappropriated in various videos posted on your webpage http://www.minnesotansforglobalwarming.com, including the video Hide the Decline –Climategate. You are hereby advised that the use of Dr Mann's likeness, which you clearly misappropriated from PSU's webpage, http://www.meteo,psu.edu/~mann/MRG/index.html, is not authorized and infringes on various copyrights. Such use also improperly misappropriates Professor Mann's likeness for commercial exploitation, given that the video clearly supports Minnesotans for Global Warming's efforts to sell various products and merchandize. Finally, the referenced video clearly defames Professor Mann by leaving viewers with the incorrect impression that he falsified data to generate desired results in connection with his research activities. This false impression irreparably harms Dr Mann's personal and professional reputation.
For these reasons, we demand that you immediately cease and desist using Dr Mann's likeness and that you immediately remove the defamatory video from your webpage (including cashed [sic] versions.) If you persist with this defamatory activity, please be advised that we will be compelled to enforce Dr Mann's rights, which may include the recovery of damages from you. Please contact me to confirm your intentions or if you wish to discuss this matter further.
The letter was copied to Mann and to Tom Cogill, Photographer.
The original video has been removed from Youtube.
However, the story doesn't quite end.
Earlier today, the following announcement was made:
the No Cap-and-Trade Coalition, a group that includes M4GW, responded today at an event at the National Press Club, releasing Mann's threatening letter and an updated version of the "Hide the Decline" video.
See a release of Hide the Decline II, available here. The new version carefully avoids any use of the "copyrighted" Mann photographs. It is also more precise in its presentation, evidencing a much clearer understanding of the trick than the wilfully obtuse Oxburgh "Report" or Willis Parliament Committee Report.
A blog report here states:
Minnesotans 4 Global Warming hope Mann will proceed with his lawsuit so that the legal discovery process will force exposure of data and methods Mann has still not released and that the official whitewash inquiries refuse to investigate.
Jeff Davis of the coalition stated:
"I hope Dr. Mann does sue us," Said Davis, "The legal discovery process would give us an opportunity to expose Dr. Mann's research – or lack thereof to public and legal scrutiny."


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Posts From August 2003
Kings of the Road update.Things are going really good. We just might win this thing. We are all in Colorado right now hanging out with Rob Hostetter. How have things been at TY. Busy I know. Everybody is skating really good. This tour is awesome. Really glad we participated. Everyday we have been getting some amazing tricks. Just wanted to say hi and check in. Gareth is getting a Thrasher tattoo right now. This was one of our challenges. We have some crazy challenges like make out with a girl 40 plus. Diego took care of this one. He also wore a speedo in miami. Gareth fs slid a handrail neckade and Adrian grinded it barefooted. All these are our chalenges and we have a ton more. We have to all fs slash a pool soon too. Even me, yikes, Some challenges everybody in the van has to participate.
STOKED: THE RISE AND FALL OF GATOR.PALM PICTURES and BIG BROTHER MAGAZINE invite you and a guest to attend the Los Angeles premiere of Helen Stickler's STOKED: THE RISE AND FALL OF GATOR This Monday, August 25, 2003
Screening at 7pm @ Laemmle's Sunset 5: 8000 Sunset Boulevard, West Hollywood
Party to immediately follow
@ 9000 Lounge: 9000 Sunset Boulevard, West Hollywood
Refreshments by Red Stripe
Please RSVP for the screening and party at firstname.lastname@example.com You must RSVP to attend and there is limited space. Admission to both will be on a first come, first serve basis.
Stoked will open on Friday, August 29th at Laemmle's Sunset 5, Monica, Lido and Pasadena Playhouse.
GET STOKED! www.stokedmovie.com
NEW YORK: 8/22 at the Angelika
LA: 8/29 at various theatres
SAN FRANCISCO: 8/29 at Landmark's Lumiere in SF + Landmark's Shattuck in Berkeley
SEATTLE : 8/29 at Landmark's Varsity
SAN DIEGO: 9/5 at the Landmark's Ken Theater
HOUSTON + DALLAS: 9/5 at the Angelika
CHICAGO: 9/12 at Landmark's Century Centre
.. and more cities to be added!
Kings of the Road.The Thrasher Kings of the Road contest is off and running. The trip is a Cannonball Run-style contest where different teams from across the industry start on the east coast and race each other to a finish at the Bayview Rumble in SF at the end of August. But its not just a race for time, along the way, they have to complete special missions in order to move on to the next destination. Its all hush hush stuff, but I do know that an entire issue of Thrasher is going to be dedicated to this race, so stay tuned to Thrasher!
You can also vote for your favorite team. Whos going to win!? Go to www.thrashermagazine.com and vote!
Foundation update.Leo Romero is broke off! He seriously sprained not one, but both of his ankles within a two week period. Ouch.
Corey Duffel is busy killing shit for the 88 video.


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BAYAMON, Puerto Rico (CNN) -- Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama took their campaigns to the U.S. territory of Puerto Rico on Saturday in an effort to woo voters before the June 1 primary.
There are 55 Democratic delegates up for grabs, though voters cannot take part in the general election in November.
Obama campaigned early Saturday at the University of Puerto Rico in Bayamon, where he praised the nation's veterans before Memorial Day.
"It's fitting to be here today, not just because Memorial Day is around the corner but because Puerto Ricans are such an important part of the United States military. On this island and in Puerto Rican neighborhoods across America, you can go into almost any home and find a veteran living there or a photograph of a loved one in uniform hanging on the wall," he said.
Obama also took aim at Republican Sen. John McCain over his opposition to an update of the GI Bill. The legislation passed the Senate on Thursday afternoon by a 75-22 vote and passed the House this month by a similar margin. It proposes to essentially provide a full scholarship to in-state public universities for members of the military who have served for at least three years.
"I don't understand why John McCain would side with George Bush and oppose our plan to make college more affordable for our veterans. ... Putting a college degree within reach for our veterans isn't being too generous; it's the least we can do for our heroes," Obama said.
Shortly after Obama's remarks, the McCain campaign hit back.
"Barack Obama talks about helping veterans, but when the choice came between delivering for our military men and women and playing partisan politics, he decided politics was more important," McCain spokesman Brian Rogers said Saturday.
Later Saturday, Obama marched along a street in San Juan, shaking hands with supporters as he walked in front of a banner that said "Puerto Rico Con Obama."
This event was referred to as a "caminata," a traditional parade for a candidate.
Obama remarked to the crowd, "I will never forget the support and the friendship that I've seen here in Puerto Rico. ... I am absolutely confident that if that we keep on working hard, there's no reason why we can't win here in Puerto Rico, and if we win Puerto Rico, we will win the nomination."
Clinton hosted a "Solutions for Puerto Rico's Families" town hall meeting in Aguadilla on Saturday.
The former first lady may not have understood the language during her first campaign stop in Puerto Rico, but she certainly understood the politics.
Before a crowd of a few hundred Puerto Ricans in a muggy high school gym, Clinton pledged to make it a "personal priority" to resolve the statehood issue before the end of her first term.
She also vowed to clean up the former Navy testing ranges on Vieques, fund the famous Arecibo radio telescope, use federal dollars to put more cops on the streets and extend tax breaks to Puerto Rican companies.
Clinton made each of those promises in English, abandoning a translator early on, despite the growing din among distracted audience members who couldn't understand the full content of her stump speech.
Still, enthusiastic supporters hoisted signs like "Puertorriquenos con Hillary" and "Hillary Presidenta" while chants of "Hillary! Hillary!" filled the room.
Despite in the language barrier, Clinton seemed to be on familiar ground.
She recalled a visit she made to the island in 1998 on behalf of her husband to inspect damage from Hurricane Georges.
She also reminded the audience that she represents more than one million Puerto Ricans in New York; this week in Florida, she jokingly referred to herself as "the senator from Puerto Rico."
Clinton has done well among Hispanic voters in this year's primaries, and she is expected to have similar success in Puerto Rico.
On Thursday, Clinton sent daughter Chelsea to campaign in Puerto Rico, a sign that she is refusing to give up the race despite the delegate math in favor of her rival.
According to CNN's latest estimate, Obama leads Clinton in total delegates, 1,969 to 1,779.
However, Obama does not have enough delegates to secure the nomination outright. He has 1,962 delegates, including superdelegates, short of the 2,026 needed to secure the nomination, according to CNN estimates.
Obama was in Florida on Friday courting the Cuban vote, a bloc that has tended to vote Republican in past elections.
With a 70 percent turnout rate, Cuban-Americans have been a powerful force in Florida and thus, because of Florida's role as a swing state, national politics.
He told Florida's Cuban-American community Friday that his Cuba policy would be based on liberty and freedom for the island nation's people. Watch more of Obama's comments »
"My policy toward Cuba will be guided by one word: 'libertad,' " he said, using the Spanish word for liberty at an event celebrating Cuban Independence Day in Miami, Florida.
CNN's Ed Hornick, Chris Welch, Peter Hamby and Suzanne Malveaux contributed to this report.
All About Hillary Clinton • Barack Obama • Puerto Rico


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Abbe dhakkan ke!
Saturdays are meant for relaxation, doing activities you don't get time for, finishing chores you've procrastinated all through the week and observations — random, ordinary observations. Only my life isn't authored by Rowling and there's no out-of-the-blue magic to be … Continue reading
Tagged bathroom, bottles, caps, covers, flaps, lids, photography, plastic, random Leave a comment


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Modern Rugs
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Modern Rugs
Modern rugs are one of the most popular rugs altogether. This is not surprising, considering the great variety of styles and designs they are available in and the unlimited ways they can be used in. A modern rug embellishes any room and adds a personal touch to every interior. Shaggy rugs are its long-piled variants and are particularly suitable for the cosy corners of an apartment. In the bedroom, they keep your feet warm in the morning and the evening and instantly create a homely atmosphere when used as living room rugs. In regard to decorating with textile home furnishing, not only the look, but also the functionality of these plays a decisive role. Hardly any bathroom seems fully furnished without bath mats as these ideally have a great look, are non-slip and washable. At benuta you have a great choice in terms of colours and various designs. Our numerous filtering options, allow you to browse through this large assortment with ease. In addition to modern rugs, we also offer a wealth of models for children: Nice kids rugs create a beautiful playing area and invite kids to play and hang around – depending on age, modern rugs are also suited for children's or teenage bedrooms.
The lines between classic elegant and modern designs are often blurred in regard to colour and pattern. As our category Oriental rugs is also filled with a variety of timeless classic designs, its components can certainly also be considered as modern rugs. Within this varied range we offer the full assortment ranging from reasonable variants to hand-knotted masterpieces.
Designer Rugs in a wide selection
At benuta you will find elegant modern rugs as well as trendy designer rugs in many shapes, colours, materials and from many different brands. When looking at such a great selection, it is quite difficult to decide upon a particular modern rug. In order to make an entirely satisfiable choice, it is not sufficient to only consider recent designs or currently favoured trends. First and foremost, you have to take your home into account or more precisely the space that is to be decorated with a new designer rug. Several factors need to be considered in this regard. On the one hand, the size of the available area is highly relevant: how large is the area that can and should be covered with the modern rug? Then, you should think about how this area is usually used and which specific requirements this imposes for the rug. A rug which is placed in a hallway or entryway needs to be harder-wearing and more resistant to dirt than, for example, lounge rugs or bedroom rugs. In this case, robust sisal rugs made from hard wearing natural fibres can be chosen. Other rooms, on the other hand, have yet other requirements: although modern rugs for kitchens should indeed be robust and variants made from sisal are worthy to be considered for that particular use, people often prefer designer rugs embellished with a themed design and hence complementing the room. In this regard, modern kitchen rugs are quite suitable as they are decorated accordingly and at the same time prove to be very robust and easy-care. A further aspect that needs to be considered when selecting modern rugs is the visual effect they can have on a room. In this respect, far more than the style and the colour of the interior design is decisive. When your room is rather small and dark, it is recommended to select a bright model as bright colours intensify the reflection of light. Darker modern rugs, on the other hand, can add additional warmth and cosiness to spacious rooms. In addition, the shape also plays a decisive role: are you looking for round rugs or for ones with a rectangular, square or longish shape?
Although, all of these aspects are relevant and justified, the most important feature of a perfect rug is that it makes your house feel more like home. This effect can only be brought about with a model that you find personally appealing. Whether you are searching for living room rugs, hallway runners or bathroom mats, our range of products offers a great selection of modern designs in order to deliver this special rug and thereby adding the finishing touches to your home. If you are still unsure about the right size and shape, you can find out about the optimal rug size in our blog post. However, this is not necessarily restricted to the indoor area: for some time, furnishing textiles for outdoor areas have been quite popular. So why should anything speak against decorating your garden or outdoor area with stylish outdoor rugs? These are not only nice to look at, but certainly waterproof, robust and very easy to clean.
Discover modern designer rugs in their whole variety at benuta.


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Story by
Mundo Resink and Stefan Blokker
Inspired by great companies and working to connect people to their dream job, Mundo (co-founder) and Stefan (co-creator) love sharing workpl Inspired by great companies and working to connect people to their dream job, Mundo (co-founder) and Stefan (co-creator) love sharing workplace stories at WOVOX.com.
Also known as the 'town of the hurdled ford' or the 'black pool', Dublin is Ireland's most populous city. It's home to the Guinness Brewery and counts 666 pubs. But we're going to try and stay away from Irish stereotypes because there's so much more to Dublin than beer. For instance, the city proudly owns the only bridge on the European continent that's as wide as it is long (oh yes!) – and it's the hometown of many famous writers and bands: from Bram Stoker and Oscar Wilde to U2 and Thin Lizzy.
But you probably already knew that. Besides, we're here to show you some awesome workplaces. Like we did for Berlin last month and Amsterdam in September. And even though Dublin may not be a startup hub like Tel Aviv or Seattle, there's a healthy entrepreneurial vibe here. And plenty of Irish banter, even inside the bigger names. Be sure to read through to the end: we've got a little exclusive for you. Well, a gigantic exclusive…
In collaboration with WOVOX.com.
1. Gaumina
Technically not a startup, and technically not even from Dublin: Gaumina is a Lithuanian company founded in 1998. This Baltic interactive agency builds websites, mobile sites and apps. A couple of years ago it also opened offices in Ireland and the UK. This Irish team works from The Digital Hub, home to nearly 70 digital content and technology companies.
We promised not to delve into Irish stereotypes, but for this one we just have to: you can smell the roasted hops and barley from the Guinness Brewery that's right around the corner. To counter the temptation and to stay healthy, Gauminians have totally taken to juicing. They turn fruits and vegetables into drinkable lunches twice a week: everything from spinach to pineapple. And they've got life-sized ducks.
2. BragBet
What better way to avoid the betting stereotype than by featuring BragBet? Two years ago, this company created a social betting service. It lets groups of friends rely on each other's sports savvy and knowledge to beat the odds and bet online. Overlooking the Liffey river and Samuel Beckett Bridge, BragBet has gone to Google-lengths to create an awesome workplace. Of course, sports play a big role here. People hold meetings on a table that doubles as a ping pong arena (sounds familiar?), and they've got their very own gym, with climbing frame and punching bag.
3. Microsoft
OK, not a start-up this. But Microsoft's Dublin offices definitely deserve a peek, if only for the ideas behind the looks. Many companies are riding the 'nouvelle vague' of employment, with greater flexibility in working times and places. But many also see their efforts fail beyond cosmetic office improvements.
We personally visited Microsoft's office (pun not intended) in Amsterdam. We talked to people whose working lives were made more fun and valuable because they're being measured by output and achievements instead of hours worked. And they're allowed to decide for themselves when and how they're most productive. And this may sound cheesy, but the sense of freedom we experienced there was pretty impressive.
The story seems no different for Building 3 of Microsoft's four Dublin locations: everything inside is geared towards supporting a culture of responsibility and trust. And a plethora of places to suit your working mood: from secluded private rooms to open collaborative spaces.
4. Lime Canvas
Operating from the Coworkinn on the IMI (Irish Management Institute) Business Campus, Lime Canvas shares their building with about 30 other small and upcoming businesses. But it's not only about sharing space: companies also co-organize events like informal drinks and network meet-ups. The web design company, which specializes in WordPress, and also does e-commerce and inbound marketing, and is a startup in the truest sense of the word: it was founded in September 2012.
The Lime Canvas crew is stoked with their set-up: they've got access to the campus' library and restaurant for example. And golfing fanatics can walk straight into the club, only a short trot from their office. But don't expect an automatic membership. Ireland probably has as many golf courses as pubs. Close by the office is Dundrum Town Centre, a massive, very swanky shopping village with lots of restaurants, clubs, bars, cinema etc.
5. Von Bismark
We're really trying to avoid the stereotypes, but Von Bismark's giving us a hard time. This team works from what used to be the Guinness Storehouse. It's now converted to office space and acts as a digital hub for Dublin startups. Beer no longer flows freely here, but the team loves to spend Friday afternoons at Arthur's, the local pub aptly named after Mister Guinness himself. There they enjoy a few pints of local brew to ease them into the weekend ahead, to relinquish the stress built up during the week and to entertain new ideas about the company's future.
That future's about redefining online shopping. With a tool that allows consumers to physically try on digital clothing, the Von Bismark team takes inspirational cues from films like Minority Report and Lawnmower Man.
6. Scale Front
A startup that creates startups? Yep, Scale Front develops new startup concepts from scratch and brings them to the market. Successful concepts, mainly Web and mobile applications, become companies in their own right.
Scale Front literally lives an attic startup life on the top floor of a large Georgian house on Dawson Street that dates from around 1720. It's in the very centre of the city, just a few doors down from where the Lord Mayor resides. You won't find a fancy company kitchen at Scale Front's office. But with a fantastic Italian restaurant behind the building, what better way to have more space for yet another startup?
7. Simply Zesty
This is not a stately Georgian house just outside of Saint Stephen's Green Park. Well, it is. But it's also home to Simply Zesty, a social media company that specializes in video production.
Social network logos litter the walls here, with the largest vertical space reserved for – of course – the Facebook Wall. When people aren't working, they settle disputes over epic ping pong matches. That is to say, epic in their own minds.
8. Lucidity Digital
Based Dublin's southern suburbs, Lucidity Digital designs for the web, but also works on various animation and digital video projects. With white floors and walls decorated with blue, yellow and pink rectangles, this office almost feels like a 21st Century Mondrian painting. Motivational phrases and inspirational quotes adorn the same walls. Creative teams are encouraged to come up with new and inventive ways of utilising the latest technologies,such as Microsoft's Kinect. This they do in a break-out space, complete with sitting bags, known as 'The Lab'.
To turn the office into something that truly belongs to the whole team, all staff are asked to bring a small personal item for the shelf. This has given rise to quite a collection over the years: from mini fighter-jets and rugby balls to toy cars and – yep, sorry – a hip flask for alcoholic beverages.
9. Realex Payments
A short walk along the river, you'll find Realex Payments. If you're making online payments, you may well be doing it via these guys, one of Europe's leading online payment service providers.
They've decorated the workplace with large prints featuring typical Irish scenes. The 'O'Connors staff area' is a relax corner made to look like the actual O'Connors bar in Doolin on the west coast of Ireland, and there's a pretty unusual meeting room here. Known to friends as the 'Ringfort', this, ehm, ring-shaped wall in the middle of the office allows team members to have standing meetings without being disturbed. To accompany the name, its walls are covered by photos of actual prehistoric ringforts in the Burren.
10. The Now Factory
This company has quickly grown since its inception in 2007 with over 130 employees drawn from 17 different nationalities. It has over 35 customers, providing network operators with real-time insights into how their customers use and interact with mobile devices and applications.
The Now Factory's HQ is made up of a converted warehouse that includes an open plan office with funky furniture and art displays, meeting rooms named after all the worldwide cities where the company has regional offices, and a coffee dock where everyone can mingle with each other to discuss the latest and greatest in mobile technology. Despite the company's rapid growth, the team has managed to retain the feel of its early startup days. Big comfy couches double as relaxation corners and meeting areas, and Fußball proves to be the a great way for team members to unleash their competitive streak.
This converted warehouse and office complex is no finished business: The Now Factory sees it as an ongoing project to make its office as fun and inspiring as possible.
11. Google
Ready for your first look inside Google's latest and greatest? Because, Google being Google, the company didn't settle for any random office. In 2011 it bought the tallest commercial building in Dublin: the Montevetro. After a lot of refurbishing and developing, 'Google Docks' now houses the company's operations headquarters for Europe, the Middle East and Africa.
As you might expect, rooms here have names like 'Funland', 'Bouncing Castle' and 'Clown College'. And fitting to the Google culture, this multi-coloured complex boasts its own gym, pool and the almost usual pool tables, sitting bags and swings. These three photos don't do justice of course, so feel free to click on them for the Full Monty.
Coming soon: New York
Next month brings us to the Big Apple, the city that never sleeps. Which startups would you like to see featured? In New York or somewhere else? Feel free to leave your ideas in the comments!
Sources of photography:
Gaumina by David Clayton; Lucidity Digital by Lucidity Digital; Lime Canvas by Neil Sisson; BragBet by BragBet; Realex Payments by Realex Payments; Microsoft by Microsoft; Simply Zesty by Simply Zesty; Von Bismark by Von Bismark; Scale Front by Sean Blanchfield; Google by Ian Shipley; The Now Factory by The Now Factory.
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Published On: May 19, 2019 05:00 PM NPT By: Associated Press
DALLAS, May 19: A spate of tornadoes raked across the Southern Plains, leaving damage and causing few injuries, and parts of the region were bracing for more severe thunderstorms and possible flooding.
The National Weather Service confirmed an EF2 twister Saturday morning with winds up to 130 mph (209 kph) that destroyed at least two homes and left one person with minor injuries in southwestern Oklahoma.
A suspected tornado caused roof damage to "numerous" homes in northwestern Arkansas, a state official said, and severe winds downed trees and power lines across a highway, blocking all lanes.
Energy companies in Oklahoma and Arkansas reported tens of thousands of customers were without power Saturday afternoon.
Tornadoes touched down Friday in Kansas and rural parts of Nebraska, tearing up trees and powerlines, and damaging some homes and farm buildings, according to the National Weather Service.
In Abilene, Texas, a city 150 miles (240 kilometers) west of Fort Worth, strong winds prompted the evacuation of a nursing home and left numerous homes and businesses damaged, according to the Abilene Reporter-News . A spokeswoman for the city said no deaths or serious injuries were reported.
The National Weather Service issued a tornado watch until 8 p.m. Saturday for the western half of Arkansas. Portions of North Texas also were under a tornado watch and a flash flood warning was issued in the Dallas area Saturday afternoon.
Forecasters warned of heavy rain, lightning, pingpong ball-sized hail and flooding as a line of storms moves west to east through afternoon, covering an area from south of Killeen, Texas, to north of the Oklahoma state line.
In Oklahoma City, thunderstorms prevented workers from securing and removing glass from Devon Tower, which was damaged Wednesday when a scaffolding holding two window washers banged against the building, The Oklahoman reported. Officials said the rain and winds blew broken glass from the tower and compromised the integrity of other panes.


text:
2051.0 - Australian Census Analytic Program: Forecasting Births, 2006
ARCHIVED ISSUE Released at 11:30 AM (CANBERRA TIME) 21/07/2011 First Issue
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A great deal of private and public expenditure is contingent upon the future number of births. In the short term, there are the costs and labour involved in the provision of pre-natal, maternity and post-natal services. Later, the number of births affects demand for early childhood education and care, then entries to primary school, secondary school and tertiary institutions. After 20 years or so, the number of births affects the number of new entrants to the labour force.
For age-related services at older ages, there is a great deal of time to plan for the future and the future is relatively well defined by the current age distribution of the population. For child-related services, however, there is little time to plan and to adjust to movements in the annual number of births. Most child-related services are also relatively 'lumpy' in that they come in large blocks like schools or universities. It is therefore vital that countries and regions are able to forecast the future number of births with accuracy.
In most advanced countries over the past 50 years, statistical agencies have performed poorly in estimating the future number of births (Wilson et al., 2010). Some national statistical organisations, such as the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), do not even attempt to undertake forecasting and instead produce a series of projections which are illustrations of change if certain assumptions on fertility prevail. These projections are not predictions or forecasts. However, with that being said, there are several options potentially available to national statistical organisations to improve births projections. One possible approach is to undertake stochastic projections that provide estimates of the likely range of error of the projected numbers of births. Where this has been done for Australia (Wilson et al., 2010), the range of possible estimates is so wide that policy makers would still be required to make a stab in the dark in estimating future service needs for children. A second approach, the one suggested in this report, is to develop a more sophisticated approach to the measurement of fertility through an increase in the demographic parameters that are used in the projection of births.
The conventional method used for the projection of births employs just one parameter as a predictor of the likelihood that a woman will give birth, her age. Rates of birth at each age are 'projected' forward into the future and they are applied to the estimated future numbers of women at each age. Generally, the future level of age-specific birth rates is projected from past trends, or the opinions of experts are obtained. Much of this estimation revolves around the future course of a single summary measure, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR), which is the sum of the age-specific fertility rates in a given year.
Total Fertility Rate
The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) can be interpreted as the average number of births that a group of women would have across their life times if they experienced the age-specific fertility rates as measured at each age in one calendar year. This is what demographers call a 'synthetic' measure. It is not the real or actual experience of any group of women; it is a synthetically constructed experience based on the assumption that women have the fertility rates of the current calendar year throughout their life time (or, more precisely, between the ages of 15 and 50).
Figure 1 shows the movements in the Australian TFR from 1921 to 2009. It also shows how the TFR is the sum of the age-specific fertility rates in each year. The figure shows how fertility fell to low levels during the 1930s, but then rose again to reach a peak in 1961. For the years 1946 to 1971, the TFR was above 2.8 births per woman; this was the post-war baby-boom. Fertility rates then fell precipitously in the 1970s, falling to a low point of 1.9 by 1980. In more recent times, the TFR trended downwards at a relatively constant rate between 1992 and 2001 and it remained low until 2003.
Projections of fertility made at this time assumed the TFR would fall even further (ABS, 2003). A program of school closures began in most states and territories, and it was assumed that the then existing maternity services would be adequate. In contrast, a rise in fertility began in 2004 that was sustained through to 2009. By 2008, the TFR was at its highest point in 30 years. In the six years from 2004 to 2009, there have been 152,000 more births than there would have been if the number of births had remained constant at the 2003 level. This is equivalent to over 250 primary schools each with 600 students.
The TFR is a summary measure of the annual incidence of births. As such, it can be affected by numerous factors such as changes in economic conditions (employment, the cost of housing, the business cycle), changes in government support for families with children (taxes and transfers, child care, etc.) and changes in the composition of the population (by relationship status, education, religion, ethnicity, etc.). These factors are usually considered in very broad terms when projections of fertility are undertaken.
However, when fertility rates are low, the main factor that affects the annual incidence of births is changes in the timing of births, especially the ages at which successive cohorts of women have their first births, and this is rarely considered in making projections of fertility. As a simple illustration of this, in Figure 1, the correlation between the TFR in any calendar year and the fertility rate below age 25 years in the same calendar year is 0.92.
Age at first birth
The cumulated first birth rates to given ages for Australian birth cohorts from 1950 to 1984 are shown in Figure 2. The rates are shown relative to those for the 1960 birth cohort. Cohorts born in the 1950s had higher cumulated first birth rates at each age than did the 1960 birth cohort. In other words, they had their first births at earlier ages than those born in 1960. However, cohorts born after 1960 have had their first births at later and later ages. The difference across cohorts is at its maximum at around ages 27 and 28. Across these cohorts, there has been a considerable shift from having the first birth before ages 27—28 to having it from ages 27—28 onwards.
Figure 3 shows this trend in a different way. It shows the distribution of the number of children born to women reaching age 30 in a given year. The proportion having no children rises linearly from 20 per cent for those reaching age 30 in 1981, to 46 per cent for those reaching age 30 in 2001, the year that the TFR hit its lowest point. Implicitly, projections of fertility that were made around 2003 assumed that this upward trend in age at first birth for cohorts would continue. However, as is evident from Figure 3, the trend levelled off from around 2001 onwards. Figure 1 shows that, in the period from 1992 to 2001, the TFR had fallen because the fall in fertility rates for women aged less than 30 (due to later first births) was larger than the rise in fertility rates at ages above 30. From 2001 onwards, Figure 1 also shows that this situation reversed and the TFR rose. To summarise, the TFR has risen in recent years because women at older ages have been having the births that had been delayed in the past while women at younger ages have ceased delaying their births any further than earlier cohorts did.
Finally, Figure 4 shows a summary of how changes in the timing of births have affected the Australian TFR over a long period of time. Three lines are plotted:
2. A measure, Tempo Standardised Period Total Fertility Rate (TSPTFR1), which removes the effects of timing changes from the trend in the TFR; and,
3. Completed Cohort Fertility Rate (CCFR), the actual average completed number of children born to cohorts of Australian women, plotted in the year equivalent to their year of birth plus their mean age at childbearing.
Figure 4: The Total Fertility Rate (PTFR), Tempo Standardised Period Total Fertility Rate (TSPTFR 1), and Completed Cohort Fertility Rate (CCFR)
The trends for the second and third measures are very similar, suggesting that the standardised measure (TSPTFR1) provides a very reliable measure of the 'quantum' of fertility, or the underlying level of fertility. The impact of timing changes on the TFR is indicated by the difference between PTFR and TSPTFR1. Our results show that the post-war history of fertility in Australia can be divided into two periods: 1946—1972 and 1973—2007. In the first period (26 years), changes in the timing of fertility contributed to a higher TFR. Across the whole of this period, 61% of the higher fertility rates (relative to 1946) was due to earlier childbearing, while the remainder (39%), was due to increases in the quantum of childbearing.
In the second period (34 years), changes in the timing of fertility contributed to a lower TFR. In this period, 33% of the lower fertility rates (relative to 1973) was due to later childbearing and 67% to a lower quantum. We also concluded that the second period has now ended as the tempo effect on the 2007 PTFR has fallen to zero.
The above analysis has shown the extent to which the annual incidence of births is affected or distorted by changes in the timing of births. However, it is this annual distorted incidence rate that produces the annual number of births. It is useful to know the trend in the underlying quantum of births (how many births women are having across their lifetimes) but to project annual births we also need to project the timing of these births. Thus, the next step in the analysis is to define a way by which this can be done.
The first point to be made is that changes in the timing of births are driven almost entirely by changes in the timing of the first birth. To a very large extent, as we show below, a woman's later births follow in a fairly regular way given the age at her first birth. This means that, in addition to the women's age, we should project births on the basis of the number of births that a woman has had already (her parity). Furthermore, again as we show below, the time since the last birth has a considerable bearing on whether or not a woman has a birth in a given year. This is because we can normally expect fairly regular patterns for the intervals between successive births.
On these assumptions, we set out to create a database for Australia that provided estimates of both births and the population of women by three characteristics measured simultaneously: age, parity and duration since previous birth. We require these estimates in great detail: by single years of age of the woman, by single parity (0, 1, 2, 3 etc) and single year of time since the previous birth (zero years, one year, two years and so on). Our approach was to use the Australian Censuses to derive these estimates. The methodology is described in Appendix 2 (Using Census data to create a detailed database for fertility analysis). Having obtained these estimates, we were then able to calculate age-parity-duration specific fertility rates. These rates can also be summed to a total fertility rate which is known in the literature as the Parity-Age-Duration TFR (Rallu and Toulemon, 1994).
The comparison of PADTFR and TFR is shown in Figure 5 for the years, 1990 to 2005. It is important to remember that these two measures are two ways of measuring the same thing: the annual incidence of births. The difference is that one takes account only of the ages of women (TFR) while the other, in addition to age, considers both parity and duration since the previous birth. Figure 5 shows that PADTFR was considerably higher than TFR in 1990 but fell faster than TFR during the 1990s so that the two measures were equal by 2002. They have remained essentially equal through to 2005. The two measures will be equal if the addition of parity and duration since the last birth is providing no additional impact beyond the effects of age. On the basis of observations made later in the report, this would occur if the cohort age-specific first birth rates had stabilised, as has already been argued. We argue, therefore, that Australian fertility has entered a new period of relative stability across cohorts. However, there is no guarantee that this situation will continue. New patterns of the timing of the first birth may emerge in the future.
Figure 5: The Age-Based Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and the Parity-Age-Duration TFR (PADTFR), Australia - 1990 to 2005
The most important finding from our research database is that for second and higher order births, the age-parity-duration specific birth rates have remained almost constant for over 20 years. This relative stability is indicated for the years 2001 to 2005 in the 15 figures shown in Appendix 1 (Charts of Age-Parity-Duration specific birth rates, 2001—2005). This is important because it means that, if it is assumed that this level of constancy will continue (a strong assumption), projection of future birth rates becomes only a matter of projecting age-specific first birth rates for cohorts.
The methodology was tested on Census data from the years, 2001 to 2006. Using information contained in the database up to the year 2000, births were projected forward to 2006 and compared with the actual outcomes. In these projections, it was assumed that trends in the probability of first birth would follow the trend in these probabilities in the previous five years (1996—2000). Then, we assume that all other transitions remain constant at their most recent value as indicated in the charts in Appendix 1. Importantly, for the population at risk of these birth rates, we use from our database the population of women classified simultaneously by age, parity and duration since the previous birth. Taking account of this more detailed population structure is an important aspect of the methodology.
Figure 6 shows the actual age-specific fertility rates for the years, 2002 and 2006, compared with their projected values. The actual and the projected results are very close. Figure 7 shows the actual and the projected TFR for the years, 2000—2006 using the McDonald-Kippen method. Again, the two are quite close. Indeed, the projection was able to predict the turning point in the Total Fertility Rate that actually occurred. It should be recalled that official projections made around 2003 projected a continuation of the downward trend in the Total Fertility Rate (Commonwealth of Australia, 2002; ABS, 2003). It is evident, at least in this one test, that the method that we propose performs considerably better than the simpler approaches used by official agencies. The error in the number of births projected for Australia from 2004 onwards would have been substantially avoided.
Given that many of the services and infrastructure used by the community, such as maternity services, early childhood facilities, and schools, are directly affected by the annual number of births, it is important that the number of future births can be more accurately forecast, or more realistically projected. Traditional methods used for the projection of births only take into account a woman's age through the use of the assumed TFR as a predictor of measuring future fertility. This article has shown that the McDonald-Kippen method of forecasting births, which incorporates age, parity and duration since last birth, produced a result that was very close to actual birth rates for 2002 and 2006. It is proposed that the findings from the present study be considered by national statistical organisations to improve the projection of births, which could ultimately lead to improved population projections into the future.
1 - Director, Australian Demographic and Social Research Institute, The Australian National University <back
2 - Future Fellow, Centre for Health and Society, University of Melbourne <back
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