text:
Running Scared (CD)
A low-ranking thug is entrusted by his crime boss to dispose of a gun that killed corrupt cops, but things get out of control when the gun ends up in wrong hands.
Adding to all the drama and suspense is composer Mark Isham who delivers one of his most thrilling scores to date.
1. Main Title (1:33)
2. Love On A Washing Machine (1:56)
3. The Duke (1:37)
4. True Grit / "Get Down" (5:14)
5. Chasing The Bullet (2:23)
6. Crack House Cacophony (3:07)
7. Sitdown (1:57)
8. The Boys Hide The Gun / Nicky Comes Clean (2:57)
9. I Belong To Him (1:37)
10. Equal Measures (1:13)
11. Dez & Edele's (5:45)
12. Fire Fight (1:18)
13. A Mother's Instinct (7:49)
14. You're An American (1:15)
15. I Knew This Kid… / The Killing Ground (3:40)
16. Nobody Knows Nobody / Priceless / Drive To Brighton Beach (3:57)
17. Iced! (11:28)
18. Aftermath / Across The Pulaski Skyway (2:10)
19. Mac Daddy / T, I'm Coming Home (4:21)
20. I Was Always The Real Joey (2:43)
21. A Family United (:53)
22. End Credits (2:17)
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Please send returns to:
Second City Prints // Varese Sarabande
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We will notify you via e-mail of your refund once we have received and processed the returned item. Refunds will be credited to your account within approximately 10 business days from the date the return is received. The credit may be reflected in your account on your next statement depending on the issuing bank and/or billing cycle. Please note that we can only process returns and refunds for items purchased from VareseSarabande.com.
Every record is inspected before it is packed and shipped using the highest quality materials. We stand behind every record that leaves our warehouse. We are not responsible for damages that occur while your package is in transit. Depending on the severity of the damage, we will try to accommodate replacement requests provided with photos of the damages. Please note that some of our limited edition products may no longer be in stock to be replaced. In cases where a replacement is warranted but not available, store credit will be issued in the amount of the product. Please email us at firstname.lastname@example.com
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Chance News 25: Difference between revisions
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* Links to [http://www.eco.utexas.edu/faculty/Hamermesh/Beautystuff.html six studies,] many involving American economist Daniel Hamermesh, which assert that 'ugly' people earn less. The beauty premium seems to apply even in professions where there is no reason to expect that beauty counts.
* Links to [http://www.eco.utexas.edu/faculty/Hamermesh/Beautystuff.html six studies,] many involving American economist Daniel Hamermesh, which assert that 'ugly' people earn less. The beauty premium seems to apply even in professions where there is no reason to expect that beauty counts.
* [http://www.economics.utoronto.ca/oreo/teaching/labour_undergrad/lecture16/mobius%20rosenblat%20mimeo%2003.pdf Why Beauty Matters,] Markus M. Mobius, Harvard University and Tanya S. Rosenblaty, Wesleyan University, 14 Sep 2003.
* [http://www.economics.utoronto.ca/oreo/teaching/labour_undergrad/lecture16/mobius%20rosenblat%20mimeo%2003.pdf Why Beauty Matters,] Markus M. Mobius, Harvard University and Tanya S. Rosenblaty, Wesleyan University, 14 Sep 2003.
==The importance of statistics==
==The importance of statistics==
Revision as of 16:50, 2 May 2007
Do not put faith in what statistics say until you have carefully considered what they do not say. William W. Watt
These Forsooth's are from the March 2007 RSS News.
Hundreds of jobs to go at factory.
Almost 200 workers are to lose their jobs at Lincolnshire factory after rescue attempts to keep it open failed, the trade union Amicus has confirmed.BBC news website
12 December 2006
Despite the ceaseless terrorist attacks on the country's infrastructure and particularly the oil industry, the value of the Iraqi dinar has continued to rise-in November, from D1,410 to the doller to D1,480. That is obviously good for the vast majority of people whose pay comes in dinars.The Spectator
30 December 2006
Paul Campbell provided the following Forsooth:
The population of the USA has topped 300 million for the first time.
It reached the figure sometime in October. It passed the 200 million mark in 1967. The U.S. census bureau, which reports the figure, calculates that, if current trends continue, it is expected to reach 400 billion by 2043. This makes it an acceleration of growth...Significance 2 (4) (Dec. 2006) 146
Jeremy Miles provided the following Forsooth:
Most modern turbines installed onshore are rated to produce between 1.5 and 1.8 MW of electricity each, which is enough to power 1000 homes for an entire year.Significance 4 (1) (Mar. 2007) 11
Statistics in the Doctors Office
This is an unscientific look at a number of medical statistics I have run into, so far. It is inspired by the great title of the article in Chance News 24 that included the words "medical research", and "rot" in the same breath.
When I was born, quite premature, the doctors said I had a 50 50 chance of staying alive. My father told my mother that this meant they did not know what the probability was.
I met my husband at 39, got married over the age of 40, and gave birth with my own eggs to a healthy child at the age of 43. Statistically speaking, chance was on my side.
In January 2006, I had a large node on my thyroid, and was told by my doctor to have it removed in 2 months. I then went to a specialist, who said there was a 30 percent chance it was Cancer, although if it wasn't yet cancer, it would most likely develop into cancer because of its size. He said there was no chance it would shrink. I went to another specialist, who said surgery should be done by Labor Day. I went back to the first specialist, who agreed with this timetable. These days I tend to ask, not "what is my chance" but, "how long do I have before I have to make a permanent decision?"
To pass the time before this surgery, that was beginning to seem inevitable, I went to a Tibetan medicine doctor, researched yoga poses to help the thyroid, and altered my diet. I also got more childcare help for my child. Come Labor Day, I did my pre-op, and then insisted on having a final meeting and sonogram with the endocrinologist. I figured if they did a sonogram right before my going into surgery, it would be statistically highly unlikely for them to cancel surgery once everyone had been called into the room, and the surgeon had taken that hour or two just for me.
I scheduled the final sonogram one week before the surgery, with an endocrinologist who works closely with the surgeon. They are on the same team. She was one of the coldest doctors I have ever met, and she had no regard for alternative medicine, so I figured she was the one to go to. Without any emotion or hint in her face, the endocrinologist scanned my throat over and over again, and then suddenly said, "Cancel the surgery. Nothing is over 1 cm. There are no nodes large enough to even have another biopsy on. (My node had been 2.6 cm, and had previously flunked a biopsy)
I have no data to support any alternative medicine I went through. I go to this same endocrinologist every six months for check ups. I continue to be a non-advocate for both western and eastern medicine, but have recently become a certified yoga teacher just in case someone else wants to, if nothing else, distract themselves while they are procrastinating.
Submitted by Mary Snell
Are beautiful politicians more likely to be elected?
Pretty vacancies, Tim Harford, Undercover Economist, FT magazine, 23 Feb 2007.
Beauty and the Geek - Maybe good looks do make you smarter, Tim Harford, Slate, 3 Mar 2007.
This article considers correlations between subjective beauty and electoral success. It cites a paper by Amy King and Andrew Leigh who, when studying Australian elections, wondered whether the results were driven by ageism or racism. They conclude that a candidate's beauty is the best explanation.
Beautiful candidates are indeed more likely to be elected, with a one standard deviation increase in beauty associated with a 1.5-2 percentage point increase in voteshare.
King and Leigh highlight that their results are adjusted for potential biases, such as:
- adding party fixed effects,
- dropping well-known politicians,
- using a non-Australian beauty rater,
- omitting candidates of non-Anglo Saxon appearance,
- controlling for age,
- analyzing the 'beauty gap' between candidates running in the same electorate.
They also conclude that, consistent with the theory that returns to beauty reflect discrimination, there is 'suggestive evidence that beauty matters more in electorates with a higher share of apathetic voters'.
Hartford is persuaded that beautiful people are better at their jobs.
There is no mystery as to why we want decorative Hollywood stars, but the same logic might apply to sales staff. Even a bureaucrat might be more persuasive if he or she is good-looking, and who wouldn't want persuasive employees instead of charmless ones?
Hartfold also speculates that, as beautiful people have probably been treated well all their lives, this might affect abilities that have nothing to do with appearance. For example, if handsome kids get all the attention from teacher, why would they not do better at school?
Another study (Mobius and Rosenblat) found that attractive people were more self-confident about how they might perform in a maths test but they did not actually do any better. Hartford also speculates that perhaps the self-confidence of the beautiful helps them fool employers into paying more.
Beautiful people could well be genuinely more productive but American economist Daniel Hamermesh devised a clever way to demonstrate that whatever lies behind our preference, our choices are based on skin-deep evidence. He showed that when candidates stood for election on more than one occasion, their chances of success rose simply when they used a more flattering photograph.
- In Australia, voting is compulsory and voters are given How to Vote cards depicting photos of the major party candidates as they arrive to vote. Do you think these features might affect the outcome of the test?
- A priori, would you expect the marginal effect of beauty to be larger for male candidates than for female candidates?
- Can you think of any other background factors that might ideally be controlled for in a beauty test? Might the outcome depend the underlying profession in question or on how beauty is defined and who defines it?
- How might it be possible to test for explanations such as employers like to be surrounded by pretty staff, or voters like to see pretty politicians on TV or that we irrationally conflate beauty with useful qualities such as honesty or intelligence?
Further reading
- Beautiful Politicians, Amy King, University of South Australia and Andrew Leigh, Australian National University. (One conclusion is that the marginal effect of beauty is larger for male candidates than for female candidates.)
- Links to six studies, many involving American economist Daniel Hamermesh, which assert that 'ugly' people earn less. The beauty premium seems to apply even in professions where there is no reason to expect that beauty counts.
- Why Beauty Matters, Markus M. Mobius, Harvard University and Tanya S. Rosenblaty, Wesleyan University, 14 Sep 2003.
- Andrew Gelman blogs about another related paper.
The importance of statistics
Ministering to the truth, The Economist, 1 Mar 2007.
The importance of statistics, Leader section, The Economist, 1 Mar 2007.
The UN requires every country to have a national statistics office, governed by a statistics law, to guarantee quality and independence. The OECD compares national statistics on health, education and economic activity to encourage laggards. Despite this, an editorial in The Economist claims that a chance to make UK government numbers more trustworthy is being missed. It also claims that three things are needed to make any nation's national statistics trustworthy:
- Pay statisticians well, to attract good candidates away from other fields. Good statistics are not cheap: Britain's next decennial census will cost £500m ($1bn), America's $12bn.
- Statistics should be free from political interference. For example, the article quotes an extreme example where the director of Argentina's statistics agency resigned following government interference in the calculation of inflation rates.
- Figures and their accompanying explanatory text should be published on an independent timetable, free from any political spin. For example, in Norway, ministers do not see statistics in advance of their publication, as happens in the UK.
The Economist says that this issue matters more in the UK than in other countries because the UK is fondest of setting targets, such as hospital waiting times or the number of new schools built, and it is the country where statistics are most obviously spun by politicians, such as crime figures coming from the government's crime fighting department, with the best gloss on hard-to-interpret figures. For these reasons, fewer than 20% of the UK population believes official statistics. The Economist claims:
If governments tweak some of the numbers that they are judged by, they deprive themselves of their best guide to future policymaking and create distrust of all national statistics.
This topic was covered previously in Chance News: Pick a number, any number (Chance News 9) and Independence for national statistics (Chance News 22).
Coincidently, there is a three-part BBC documentary, called The Trap, which argues (2nd programme aired on BBC2, 18 March 2007) that the UK government's obsession with setting performance targets turns people into the calculating machines, with disastrous consequences. Bizarrely, the programme argues that this all started with game theory, the Nash equilibrium and the cold-war arms-race.
- Are you aware of the UN-mandated 'statistics law', to guarantee the quality and independence of your country's national statistics office? Do you know where to go to find out more about it? Assuming you are familiar with it, how well do you think it has been implemented in your country's case? Is such a law really necessary, or can you trust your politicians and government officials?
- Are the three conditions listed by The Economist sufficient to make every nation's national statistics trustworthy? What others would you like to impose, ideally?
Further reading
- The Trap: This series consists of three one-hour programmes which explore the concept and definition of freedom, specifically: "how a simplistic model of human beings as self-seeking, almost robotic, creatures led to today's idea of freedom." It relies heavily on game theory, including the Nash equilibrium. (See Solution to the Car Talk problem (Chance News 24) for another example of Nash equlibrium.)
- What Happened To Our Dream Of Freedom? BBC press office.
- Cry freedom, The Guardian, 3 March 2007.
Submitted by John Gavin.
Paul Cambell suggested the next article.
Mixing a night out with probability & making a fortune
Math Horizons
February 2007
Kari Lock, Williams College
Oh, New York bring back those big dippers. August 1, 1999
Donald Catlin
Both of these articles tell us how two lottery players took advantage of their knowledge of probability theory to win a lot of money.
As part of the lottery program the New York State Lottery allows you to play Quick Draw (Keno) in bars, restaurants, bowling alleys and other places. To play their version of Quick Draw you buy a ticket for $1 which has the numbers from 1 through 80 on it. Then you pick a number r between 1 and 10 numbers. The lottery then randomly chooses 20 of the 80 numbers. The object, for the player, is to match as many of the 20 'house' numbers with the player's r numbers as possible. A new game is played every 4 or 5 minutes so a lot of plays can be made while drinking a few beers.
Catlin states that in the month of November in 1997, the New York Lottery had a promotion using the Quick Draw game. He writes, "The following is a direct quote taken from a table card advertising the special promotion"
Win a double dip on Big Dipper Wednesdays. During our 'Big Dipper Wednesday Special' promotion November 5, 12, 19, and 26, prizes for all winning Quick Draw 4-spot tickets will be doubled!
A 4-spot ticket means that the player chooses r = 4. The two players realized that if you bought a Quick Draw 4-spot ticket you would be playing a favorable game. In his book "Lottery Book: The truth behind the numbers" Catlin says that the players were graduate students in mathematics. Kari Lock refers to them as former students.
Let's see why this would be a favorable game.
When you play Quick Draw on an ordinary day the payoffs are:
4 Spot Game
Numbers Matched Prize per $1 played 4 $55 3 $5 2 $1
The probability p(x) of x matches is given by the hypergeometric distribution:
<math> p(x) = {{{20 \choose x} {{60} \choose {4-x}}}\over {80 \choose 4}}</math>
From this we find the expect payoff per dollar for the 4-spot game is
p(4}*55 p(3)*5 + p(2)*1 =$.597361.
So on ordinary days if you choose the 4-spot game you can expect to win about 60 percent of the amount you spent. When the payoffs are doubled your expected payoff becomes twice as much which is $1.19472 so you can expect to make about 19.45 percent of the amount that you bet making this a favorable bet
Kari Lock writes:
When the bar opened at 10 am the first Wednesday in November, they were there and ready to go. From opening until the deal expired at midnight, for all four Wednesdays in November, these two guys feverishly played 4 Spot Quick Draw. Purchasing around 1500 tickets a day, they played the maximum amount of 20 games with each ticket, betting $5 a game. As they played more and more games, they started making a profit as predicted, and were able to use their winnings to keep purchasing more tickets. The only factors limiting the number of tickets they played were the printer--it took a certain amount of time for the matching to process and print out a ticket--and the actual process of cashing in the tickets.
After purchasing a new house and a new car, one of the guys was asked to comment on the experience. His words of wisdom after the whole event:" It shows that paying attention in math class can, in fact, be useful."
Neither author told us who the students were nor any evidence that the story was not an urban legend. We wrote to the New York Lottery and they said that their records did not go back to 1997 but they did remember the promotion. However further research resulted convinced us that this is a true story and at the same time to find our "source" Kari Lock.
We found an interview by Joan Garfield, of "chance enhanced course" fame, of statistician Robin Lock in the "Newsletter for the Section on Statistical Education, Volume 7, Number 1, (Winter 2001)". Joan's interview started with:
How many statistics instructors learn that their former students have applied their statistical skills to earn over $100,000 playing a lottery game? This happened to Robin Lock, Professor of Mathematics at St. Lawrence University in New York. Lock's former student and a friend applied their knowledge of probability in figuring out that the expected value of a Quick Draw lottery game at a local restaurant was greater than $0 during a special promotion.
According to Lock, these students "first raised enough cash to start play with little chance of going bust before the law of large numbers took effect to assure their expected winnings." They computed the probabilities and expectations by hand, then simulated the game many times on a computer to confirm the long run behavior. Putting the theory into practice for the remaining three days of the promotion netted the pair a profit of more than $100,000, matching almost exactly what the theory had predicted. Lock noted "Not only did they understand the application of mathematical expectation to this problem, but they had confidence in what they learned and the free time to sit all day in the restaurant playing the game." After hearing about these students' success, Lock invited them to visit his class and share the information about how they worked out the expected value, simulated the game, and decided how much to gamble.
Anyone who knows Robin Lock
will not be surprised to learn that his daughter Kari Lock has a gold medal in ice dancing from the US Figure Skating Association. And Kari is in her first year of the stat PhD program at Harvard.
Discussion questions
(1) Does winning $100,000 seem plausible?
(2) Kari Lock writes:
Their final profit after the four days of playing ended up within $100 of what they had originally computed to be their expected payoff.
How would you decide if this is about what you would expect?
Written by Laurie Snell
Extraordinary Knowing
Extraordinary Knowing: Science Skepticism, and the Inexplicable Powers of the Human Mind
Elizabeth Lloyd Mayer,
Random House 2007
"In nonstatistical language, the odds that pure chance was responsible for 50 percent of women getting pregnant in the prayed-for group but only 26 percent in the non-prayed-for group were less than 13 out of ten thousand. The odds that pure chance explained why 16.3 percent of the embryos successfully implanted in the prayed-for group versus only 8 percent in the non-prayed-for group were less than five out of ten thousand." --page 155 in Extraordinary Knowing: Science Skepticism, and the Inexplicable Powers of the Human Mind by Elizabeth Lloyd Mayer. The above quotation gives the reader barely an indication of the credulity of Mayer. In statistical terms, she is confusing p-value with the probability that prayer had no effect. Further, the study to which she is referring has been thoroughly debunked; one of the authors,Daniel Worth, was convicted for unrelated bank and mail fraud and another author, Rogerio Lobo, arrived on the scene after the study was done and now has withdrawn from the study. A better indication of the strange collection of events depicted in this book comes from how Mayer first became interested in her quest for evidence for the occult, ESP, telekinesis. When her daughter's hand-carved harp was stolen in Oakland she eventually turned to a dowser (whom she had not met) some 2000 miles away in Arkansas who told her where the harp would be found. From then on, her gullibility knew no bound. About the only element missing in the book is astrology.
Discussion 1. What evidence would make you believe in dowsing, astrology, or telekinesis?
2. What evidence would make you disbelieve in dowsing, astrology, or telekinesis?
3. On the back cover of the book may be found the following quotation from Judith Orloff, M.D.: "A fascinating look at the power of non-local awareness to transcend the limits of the linear mind." Translate that into English focusing on the words "non-local" and "linear."
4. In an experiment in which all possible outcomes are due to pure chance, what is the probability that the results are due to pure chance?
Submitted by Paul Alper
Further reading and listening
Unlocking the minds
Jerry Adler
Author: Elizabeth Lloyd Mayer Talk
Submitted by Laurie Snell
Lung cancer screening may increase your risk of dying
Seeing is not always relieving, The Economist, 8 Mar 2007.
The aim of screening healthy people for cancer is to discover tumours when they are small and still treatable but sometimes this leads to unnecessary treatment because our bodies have a battery of mechanisms for stopping small tumours from becoming large. So treating those that would have been suppressed anyway does no good and can often be harmful according to Peter Bach of the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Centre in New York and his colleagues, who studied the use of computed tomography (CT) to detect tumours in the lungs.
Earlier studies, by Claudia Henschke of Cornell University and her colleagues along with another paper from Dr. Back, reported that patients whose lung cancer had been diagnosed early by CT screening had excellent long-term survival prospects. But Dr. Bach latest paper warns that survival data alone fail to answer a basic question: compared with what?. People are bound to live longer after their diagnosis if that diagnosis is made earlier and early diagnosis is of little value unless it results in a better prognosis.
To answer this comparative question, Dr Bach interrogated his data more thoroughly. He used statistical models based on results from studies of lung cancer that did not involve CT screening, to try to predict what would have happened to the individuals in his own study if they had not been part of that study. The results were not encouraging.
Screening did, indeed, detect more tumours. Over the course of five years, 144 cases of lung cancer were picked up in a population of 3,200, compared with a predicted number of 44. Despite these early diagnoses, though, there was no reduction in the number of people who went on to develop advanced cancer, nor a significant drop in the number who died of the disease (38, compared with a prediction of 39). Considering that early diagnosis prompted a tenfold increase in surgery aimed at removing the cancer (the predicted number of surgical interventions was 11; the actual number was 109), and that such surgery is unsafe—5% of patients die and another 20-40% suffer serious complications—the whole process seems to make things worse.
Dr Bach concluded that many extra cancers picked up by CT screening would never have caused clinical disease, while the most aggressive tumours — those that cause most of the 160,000 lung-cancer deaths in America each year — grow too quickly to be found early, even with annual CT screening.
In an another earlier attempt to deal with lung cancer, researchers uncovered 20% more tumours in groups that underwent screening using chest X-rays than in those who did not but the frequency of death from the disease did not differ between the two groups. This situation resembles prostate-cancer screening where a lot of disease is identified but there is doubt over the number of lives that screening actually saves.
Randomized controlled trials to accurately assess the benefits of CT screening are under way, over the next two years. But The Economist is pessimistic:
The omens, however, are bad. What you do know can hurt you.
Further reading
Computed Tomography Screening and Lung Cancer Outcomes, Bach et al, JAMA, Vol. 297 No. 9, March 7, 2007.
Continuing Uncertainty About CT Screening for Lung Cancer, Thomas L. Schwenk, Journal Watch - General Medicine, 6 Mar 2007.
Submitted by John Gavin.
Napping is good for your heart
It pays to sleep on the job, Stephen Pincock, Science matters, FT magazine, 24-25 Feb 2007.
Midday napping (siesta) in apparently healthy individuals is inversely associated with coronary mortality and the association was particularly evident among working men, after controlling for potential confounders.
Siesta is common in populations with low coronary mortality but epidemiological studies to confirm the relationship have generated conflicting results. So Androniki Naska and his colleagues studied a cohort of 23,681 people for an average of 6.32 years, individuals who at enrollment had no history of coronary heart disease, stroke or cancer and had complete information on frequency and duration of midday napping, as well as on potentially confounding variables. They modeled their data using a Cox regression, with time to coronary death and treating deaths from other causes as censoring events as outcomes.
Overall, 792 participants died in the six years of the study, including 133 who died from heart disease. Among men and women, those taking a siesta of any frequency or duration had a coronary mortality ratio of 0.66 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.45-0.97). The more the subjects slept the lower the ratio. Among men, the inverse association was stronger when the analysis was restricted to those who were currently working at enrollment.
French health minister, Xavier Bertrand, has called for the country's employers to take seriously the idea of letting their workers take siestas.
Sleep must not be trivialised. Why not a siesta at work? It can't be a taboo subject.
Bertrand advocates an experiment in which a limited number of volunteer companies introduce the after-lunch nap and then study the results. If it improves concentration and quality of work it might be adopted more widely.
In 2000, for example, Masaya Takahashi and Heihachiro Arito from Japan's National Institute of Industrial Health studied the effects of a 15-minute nap after lunch on alertness and logical reasoning in 12 students who'd only been allowed four hour's sleep the night before. They found that the students who had a nap did better in a test of cognitive function than their napless counterparts. The benefits were seen particularly in the mid-afternoon, the scientists claimed.
- Can you think of potentially 'confounding variables' that the article is referring to?
- What practical difficulties might have to be addressed to make Betrand's napping at work suggestion a reality?
- Is a sample size of 12 sufficient to draw meaningful conclusions in the second experiment mentioned above?
Further reading
- Siesta in Healthy Adults and Coronary Mortality in the General Population, Androniki Naska, et al, Arch Intern Med. 2007;167:296-301.
Submitted by John Gavin.
Is the problem with the drug or with the data
How safe is Celebrex? By Diedtra Henderson, The Boston Globe, February 25, 2007.
The FDA routinely receives reports of adverse drug reactions, but it is unclear what they should do with this data. The case of Celebrex illustrates this issue all too well.
From August 2004 to July 2005 , as consumers grew increasingly wary about Celebrex, they filed thousands of documents with the FDA. The reports raise heart attack and stroke concerns that are similar to those linked to two other painkillers, Bextra and Vioxx. But unlike those drugs, Celebrex is still sold.
Part of the problem is that drugs are tested for efficacy on hundreds or maybe a few thousand patients. But after the drug is approved, it may be taken by a million people or more. Side effects that could never be detected in a small clinical trial may now appear.
Another problem is that the system of reporting adverse drug reactions to the FDA is voluntary. Doctors and patients can contribute a report when something bad happens, but it is unclear how often they go to the trouble.
According to Dr. Curt Furberg , a drug-safety expert at Wake Forest University School of Medicine , the reports actually underestimate harm attributed to Celebrex, since as few as 10 percent of doctors submit the time-consuming documentation.
The reporting system can also surge with reports in response to media coverage. If the media raises general awareness of a possible link between a popular drug and a particular side effect that occurs fairly commonly, people may draw links between the two that they might otherwise have overlooked.
Pfizer's Dr. Steven J. Romano said sudden jumps in the number of reports could have been driven by media coverage of Celebrex and related painkillers. "It is important to recognize that an increase in reporting rates does not necessarily mean an increase in incidence rates," Romano wrote in response to questions from the Globe.
The FDA has been criticized by some for allowing drugs like Celebrex to stay on the market.
The agency's harshest critics say it has become ineffective and point to a growing list of unsafe drugs and devices that still have the FDA's stamp of approval.
"They're pussycats at FDA," said Wake Forest's Furberg. "They have absolutely no clout."
Submitted by Steve Simon
1. What types of biases is a voluntary system of adverse drug reaction reporting going to be subject to?
2. Are the biases so serious as to make such a system worthless?
3. What alternatives are there for examining the risks of adverse drug reactions?
4. The article seems to offer different opinions about the types of adverse drug reactions that are the most difficult to determine. In one paragraph, they state that slight increases in a common ailment such as heart attacks, strokes, and heart failures can be easily overlooked. Why is this difficult to detect? Would an increase in the risk of a rare side effect be more difficult to detect?


text:
Using Subversion
- 1 What is Subversion?
- 2 Getting and Installing Subversion
- 3 Making A Repository
- 4 Checking out a Working Copy
- 5 Adding a Directory to a Working Copy
- 6 Adding Files and Subdirectories to the Repository
- 7 How to Avoid Typing Your Password All The Time
- 8 Viewing Log History
- 9 Basic Work Cycle
- 10 Best Practices
- 11 Troubleshooting
- 12 Example Repository Set Up
- 13 How to Change or Switch the Location of Your Repository
What is Subversion?
Subversion ("svn") is a version control system; it manages successive revisions of files, keeping track of the latest version of each file, which versions of other files are associated with particular versions of a file, etc. It can be used to:
- Get a copy of the most recent version of a file or directory
- Get a copy of a set of files as of a given date, a given version of one particular file, etc.
- Compare the "working" version of a file to the most recent version
- Allow multiple people to work on files at the same time
- Etc., etc.
Comprehensive svn documentation: http://svnbook.red-bean.com
Subversion website: http://subversion.tigris.org
The main terms you need to understand are "repository," "revision," and "working copy". The repository is a central store of all the versions of all the files that are under Subversion's control. A "revision" of the repository is an integer that uniquely identifies the states of all of the files in the repository. A working copy (aka "sandbox" or "working directory") is a local copy of one particular version of one or more files, which you typically edit, test, debug, etc., and then "commit" to Subversion, thereby creating a new revision. If things get complicated, with people working on two or more versions of the same files, you'll want to think about using branches.
Getting and Installing Subversion
It all starts here: http://subversion.tigris.org/project_packages.html
Linux (Planet CCRMA)
The command-line Subversion program is part of the Planet CCRMA distribution, so you don't have to do anything special to use it.
"KSvn is a Konqueror-integrated frontend to the subversion (svn) revision control system for KDE." http://sourceforge.net/projects/ksvn
I use the command-line Subversion tools on OSX, which came as pre-built and easy-to-install binaries: http://metissian.com/projects/macosx/subversion
There seem to be a few OSX graphical clients for Subversion, all in buggy beta stages:
- http://www.nikwest.de/Software/#SvenOverview
- http://scplugin.tigris.org
- http://www.lachoseinteractive.net/en/community/subversion/svnx/features
There are also Subversion plug-ins for BBEdit and other text editors, as well as graphical front-ends.
Some people at CNMAT interact with svn through the text editor called BBEdit:
"Basically it works seamlessly, but you have to install a prefernce panel called sshlogin". You get the preference panel from http://www.bebits.com/app/746 and then you have to check things out using the command-line tools, but then there's a Subversion menu (with an icon that looks like a big stylized letter "S" tilted 45 degrees to the left) in BBEdit that lets you do everything you need to do directly from BBEdit.
It seems to be good for anything involving individual files (even files such as Max patches that BBEdit can't open), and it has a nice graphical way to show you the differences between two text files side by side, but it's terrible at things involving directories. So, for example, BBEdit isn't good at changing the name of something that's already been checked into the repository ("svn rename"), or for adding new directories to the repository ("svn mkdir").
The command-line tools are installed into /usr/local/bin, which isn't in people's path by default when they open an OSX terminal window. After installing Subversion, open a Terminal window and type "svn help". If it prints help, you're fine. Otherwise, type "/usr/local/bin/svn help". If this works, you need to add /usr/local/bin to your path. Otherwise either you didn't really install Subversion or you accidentally installed it somewhere weird.
Information on using subversion with Xcode can be found in the followings:
- Getting Control with Subversion and Xcode
- Using Subversion
I installed Subversion (from http://subversion.tigris.org/project_packages.html), plus the GUI front-end TortiseSVN (http://tortoisesvn.tigris.org).
It didn't work because it couldn't find ssh. Here are my notes on how I fixed this (on CNMAT's Windows machine):
command-line ssh is here:
C:\Program Files\SSH Communications Security\SSH Secure Shell\ssh2.exe
So you must add that directory to your path:
Start Menu right-click "My Computer" Choose "properties" "Advanced" tab "Environment Variables" button In "System variables", scroll down to "Path" Select and press "Edit"
Then you have to tell Subversion that "ssh" is named "ssh2":
cd C:\Documents and Settings\Matt Wright\Application Data\Subversion
Change config so that "[tunnels]" isn't commented out, and then underneath that, so it says
ssh = ssh2
Configuring Subversion
At some point Subversion will automatically open a text editor to let you type in some important information. If you would like to choose which text editor it will use (instead of the default "vi"), put something like this in your .cshrc file or the equivalent:
setenv VISUAL emacs setenv EDITOR emacs
If you use Bash, put something like this in your .bashrc file:
export VISUAL='emacs' export EDITOR='emacs'
There's only one way that I've ever changed subversion's configuration:
Subversion can be set to "ignore" certain files, which basically means not to try to check them into the repository if they appear in a folder. You mainly need this for files that are created by the build process, which don't belong in the repository. By default Subversion comes configured with a pretty conservative list of these files; I've added quite a few. This configuration goes into the file config inside the "hidden" .subversion subdirectory of your home directory (at least on OSX and Linux). Here's what the appropriate line in ~matt/.subversion/config looks like (note that it's a single long line):
global-ignores = *.o *.lo *.la #*# .*.rej *.rej .*~ *~ .#* \ .DS_Store build-mac build-classic *Data *.macyucky version.h \ *.sit svn-commit* *.mode1 *.pbxuser build
Making A Repository
Subversion has a client/server architecture in which the repository (all the versions of all the files checked into svn) lives on a server, and people access the files via clients. I recommend that you use one of the CCRMA Linux machines as your server. ccrma-gate now seems to work as an svn server as well.
You have to use an "FSFS" repository at CCRMA (because your home directory is NFS-mounted). Decide where you want the repository to live. If it's going to be enormous because you want to check in zillions of megabytes of media you'll have to either use a local
cmnXX:/scratch directory (these directories are on each CCRMA host, but are not meant for permanent storage. Begin by making a directory in
/scratch with your username, and put the repo/tree in there), or an external hard drive at a workstation (not generally possible for
svn+ssh). Otherwise, for reasonable file sizes, you should put it in your home directory somewhere. Here's the magic incantation to create an SVN repository in the directory named "svn-repository" underneath your home directory:
svnadmin create --fs-type fsfs ~/svn-repository
This creates an empty repository of the given name. The next steps are to check it out, copy files into it, 'add' those files to the repository, and then 'commit'. These steps are summarized below. If you want to read more, here's the whole story: Creating and Configuring Your Repository.
Checking out a Working Copy
You'll do all your work (i.e., editing, compiling, testing, debugging) in a working copy. First decide where you want your working copy to be, and go there. For example, suppose you want to work in classes/220c:
~> cd ~/classes/220c
You make the working copy with
svn checkout. Obviously, you have to tell the "svn checkout" command where to find the repository from which you're checking out the working copy.
- If you're on a CCRMA machine the "path" to your repository will be something like this:
- If you're on a non-CCRMA machine, the "path" will be something like this:
Note that you have to type in the full path to your Subversion repository, which in this example is the svn-repository directory in Xyz's account:
Your working copy can contain any of the following:
- The entire contents of your repository (good if you only have one project under version control, or if you want to look at everything you've been working on):
svn co path_to_your_repository
- Just a subdirectory (if you want to work on only one project in this particular subdirectory):
svn co path_to_your_repository/name/of/sub/directory
- Just the top-level folder of your repository without any of the subfolders (if you want to add a new top-level directory to the repository without having to check out any of the existing other directories):
svn co -N path_to_your_repository
- The "-N" option is for "non-recursive"; it avoids checking out the subdirectories of a given directory.
- Any complicated subset of the files and directories in your repository. (You're on your own for how to ask for this.)
Adding a Directory to a Working Copy
Go to your working copy and use "svn mkdir" to add the new directory:
cd wherever/my/working/copy/is svn mkdir name-of-my-new-directory
The "
svn mkdir" command will make an actual directory in your working copy, but it will also keep track of the fact that you intend for this directory to live in the repository. (Just saying regular Unix "mkdir" would do the former but not the latter.)
Now you must "commit" your new empty directory, so that it will truly go into the repository:
svn commit
It will bring up a text editor so you can type in a "log message", which will probably be something profound like "initial empty directory for such and such a project". If you weren't following instructions above and didn't set the shell variable VISUAL to your favorite text editor, you'll probably be happy to know that you can type "
:q" (followed by the return key) to quit vi.
Adding Files and Subdirectories to the Repository
The basic stratgegy is that you start with a working directory, add the files to it, and then commit.
For example, continuing the examples above, assume you have a working directory in
cd wherever/my/working/copy/is/name-of-my-new-directory touch foo.c svn add foo.c svn commit
In this example I used "touch" to create an empty file; in a real situation you'd actually copy an existing file into the directory or make it in a text editor or some other program.
The "
svn add" lets subversion know that you intend for the new file to live in the repository. It's somewhat misleading that "add" doesn't actually add the files to the repository, it just "schedules" them to be added the next time you "commit".
How to Avoid Typing Your Password All The Time
~> man ssh-keygen
This link has a step by step instructions on how to do this: how-to-setup-ssh-keys-and-why
Viewing Log History
You can view the log history by typing
svn log
Basic Work Cycle
Here's some great documentation on the basic Subversion Work Cycle.
To summarize this summary,
- You must have a working copy. (
svn checkout)
- Your working copy may be out-of-date because somebody else has checked in improvements since you checked yours out. Fix this with: (
svn update)
- Make changes to your files.
- If you need to change file names or directory structure, do it through Subversion:
svn add, svn delete, svn mkdir, svn rename, svn copy, etc.
- If you need to change file names or directory structure, do it through Subversion:
- Examine your changes:
- Which files have I changed (or have changed out from under me)? (
svn status)
- What changes have I made? (
svn diff)
- Which files have I changed (or have changed out from under me)? (
- Commit your changes (
svn commit). Please write a descriptive log message when you commit any file(s) to svn.
You almost never need to refer to the server in a typed svn command, because working copies remember where they came from. So when you say svn update, svn status, svn diff, svn commit, etc., svn automatically interprets these to mean "with respect to the working copy in the current directory and the repository it came from" and so you don't have to mention the server.
The only time you need to refer to the server is when you check out a working copy in the first place (where obviously you need to tell your svn client which server to get the files from):
svn checkout svn+ssh://cmn17.stanford.edu/user/x/xyz/svn-repository
The svn log command gives you the entire history of the given file, including the revision numbers (of the entire repository) for each different version of the file. If you want to compare two versions of a file from (for example) revisions 111 and 234, you can say
svn diff -r111:234 filename
Best Practices
Never store "derived" files in version control. Check in only source files, makefiles, etc.; the results of the build process (.o files, executable files, etc.) should not be under version control.
Check in often. Any time you make any improvement to any code, check it back in ASAP. If it's untested or has any other potential problems, you can just make a note of them in the comment when you check it in.
More advice:
- Strategies for Repository Deployment
- http://www.geocities.com/vivekv/cvs-bestpractices
- http://www.cmcrossroads.com/bradapp/acme/
Last Resort
When things really get confused, like when you don't understand SVN's error messages, this always works for me:
- Manually move any files that you've modified somewhere safe, i.e., outside your working copy
- Delete the troublesome parts of your working copy (files, directories, or the whole thing)
- Do "svn update" to restore your working copy with the current version from the repository
- Look at the result to see what actually was committed
- If necessary, copy your changed files back into you shiny clean new working copy and submit them again.
If things get completely hosed, you can always check out an all new working copy and then copy in any un-checked-in files that you modified.
Example Repository Set Up
Here is the sequence of steps that was taken to set up the source control repository for the REALSIMPLE CCRMA Research Group:
cd /usr/ccrma/group/realsimple svnadmin create --fs-type fsfs svn svn mkdir file:////usr/ccrma/group/realsimple/svn/doc -m 'Create REALSIMPLE doc directory' svn import /usr/ccrma/group/realsimple/doc file:////usr/ccrma/group/realsimple/svn/doc/trunk \ -m 'Initial import of REALSIMPLE doc project' mv doc doc-old-CAN-DELETE svn checkout file:////usr/ccrma/group/realsimple/svn/doc/trunk /usr/ccrma/group/realsimple/doc cd doc svn propset svn:keywords 'URL Author Date Rev' *.tex Make* <etc.> <cd <subdirs> and repeat.> svn commit -m "Enable keywords URL Author Date Rev on all Make and .tex files, etc."
Say 'svn help propset', etc., to learn about the various svn commands.
To "check out" your own copy of the REALSIMPLE source tree at CCRMA, you should be able to say, from anywhere in the world,
svn checkout svn+ssh://firstname.lastname@example.com/usr/ccrma/group/realsimple/svn/doc/trunk ~/realsimple/doc
for example. This checks out a working copy of the doc subdirectory of the REALSIMPLE svn repository, and places it in the realsimple subdirectory of your home directory (which should already exist).
If you make changes to your local copy, you can upload them via
cd ~/realsimple/doc svn commit -m 'My changes had to do with ..."
However, to include newly created files in your working copy, you must first use 'svn add filename' to add them to the project, as mentioned above. As also described above, 'svn mkdir dirname' will make a new directory both in your working copy and in the repository, 'svn delete filename' will delete from both, and so on.
To update your local copy with new changes by others, say
svn update
and so on.
How to Change or Switch the Location of Your Repository
svn switch <NEW_URL>
See this svn document for more.


text:
If on January 24th 1984, the day the Macintosh computer came out, I slipped into a coma or through a time warp so that the next thing I knew it was 30 years later in New York City, how would things seem different?
The most surprising thing is that things are pretty much the same. No shiny science fiction future, no Blade Runner world either. Just the same old stuff with some differences.
Money: The money looks somewhat different. Prices have doubled.
New York: The subway trains are nicer. So is Times Square. The Twin Towers are gone. There is another building in their place. Strange. The city seems to have more wealth and confidence, but poverty is still high.
Race: New York is about as black as it ever was, but it has become more Asian and Hispanic and less white (from a half to a third of the city). On the other hand, Harlem is whiter. Whites seem more racist, especially:
The police stop and search blacks and Latinos more than they used to.
Cars: look more streamlined. Many have no trunk.
Colour screens are everywhere. They no longer require a heavy box that sits on a table.
Telephones no longer ring a loud bell. They are wireless and can fit in your pocket. Most people have one. They look at them even when they are not talking to anyone.
Video games are far more realistic looking and far more common.
Computers have pretty much become what Steve Jobs wanted in 1983:
[W]e want to put an incredibly great computer in a book that you can carry around with you and learn how to use in 20 minutes … and we really want to do it with a radio link in it so you don't have to hook up to anything and you're in communication with all of these larger databases and other computers.
In 2014 the radio link is called Wi-Fi, and the "larger databases and other computers" are called the Internet. Email is common.
How to look stuff up: From library card catalogues to Google on the Internet.
Television: Everyone has cable television. There are tons of channels and they rarely go off the air. Animation and graphics are better.There are more ads, contest shows, partisan news and news comedies. American television seems as white as it ever was.
Music: Rap is much more common. Even white people listen to it.
Top R&B song on January 24th:
- 1984: Patti LaBelle: If Only You Knew
- 2014: Beyoncé featuring Jay Z: Drunk in Love
Cameras do not need film.
The New York Times has colour photos.
Magazines: Layout and graphics are better, writing more bite-sized. The skin of women in pictures sometimes looks strangely smooth.
Unfamiliar words and phrases: texting, cellphone, racial profiling, stop and frisk, al-Qaeda, YouTube, Instagram, Twitter, tweets, twerk, app, "visit time.com" (where is it?), FLOTUS, cultural narrative, social media, empowerment, Islamist, outsourcing, genome, internet, 9/11 hijackers, mwahahaha.
Who is Oprah? Harry Potter? Rihanna? Spike Lee? Who are the Cosby Kids? What is crack? Starbucks?
Less common or gone: watches, boom boxes, Walkmans, record players, VCRs, video arcades, Woolworth's, Jheri curls, Crazy Eddie ads, pay phones, telephone books, writing letters, marriage.
New: Kindles.
See also:
- early 1980s to early 2010s:
- The 2010s in science fiction:
- Patti LaBelle: If Only You Knew
- telephone
- Steve Jobs
- Oprah
- YouTube
- racial profiling
- gentrification
- Living a year without the Internet
- Millennials
- King's Dream at 50: A Report Card – comparing 2013 to 1963


text:
Department of Public Safety spokeswoman Pamela Walker said Tuesday that Sampson Correctional Institution administrator Lafayette Hall has been put on paid leave while the State Bureau of Investigation investigates what happened at the Clinton facility. A second employee also has been reassigned.
Six inmates allege correctional officers forced them to perform numerous humiliating acts, including gulping hot sauce and slathering it on themselves, resulting in painful blisters. The male inmates also reported being forced to simulate sex acts for the entertainment of guards, as well as to capture and kiss wild snakes while working on a road crew.


text:
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text:
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text:
According to biographer Walter Isaacson, former Apple CEO Steve Jobs spent the last several years of his life designing a custom yacht with an ultralight aluminum hull so his family could sail around the world together. Just over a year after Jobs' death, the boat, dubbed "Venus," was christened on Sunday in the Dutch shipyard where it was built.
Jobs' widow, Laurene Powell Jobs, and their three children attended a ceremony yesterday in Aalsmeer, Netherlands, according to Dutch site One More Thing. Venus was built in the Netherlands by Feadship, with design assistance from noted designer Phillipe Starck. Starck revealed in April that the results of his longtime collaboration with Jobs would be revealed in eight months, suggesting the yacht was finished a little earlier than planned.
A tribute to the minimalist design that Jobs championed at Apple (along with SVP of Industrial Design Jony Ive), the all-aluminum hull looks like it could have been carved from a single piece of aluminum, like many of Apple's computers and mobile products. Other notable features of the finished vessel include smooth, all-teak decks, a rear hatch to launch a separate speed boat when a suitable dock isn't available to go ashore, and a wheelhouse powered by seven 27" iMacs.


text:
Hot Online: Kim Kardashian shows off body
Staff Writer
Rockford Register Star
Something to talk about
The Eurythmics are reuniting to pay tribute to the Beatles, according to news reports. Annie Lennox and Dave Stewart will perform for "The Night That Changed America: A Grammy Salute to the Beatles" on Jan. 27.
Trending on Twitter
The NFL playoffs are trending. Who is your favorite team?
Hot video:Kim Kardashian flaunts toned body
Kim Kardashian shows off her post-pregnancy body with two snapshots of herself in workout clothes.
More Content Now


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Official Website of the New York City Department of Parks & Recreation
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