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Chance News 9: Difference between revisions
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 Mathematics is not an opinion.
Anonymous.

 Mathematics is not an opinion.
Anonymous.

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Here is
Here is 's description of study.

 Airbags are known to save lives. Airbags are also known to kill people. It is widely believed that the balance is in favor of airbags. Government and private studies have shown a statistically significant beneficial effect of presence of airbags on the probability of surviving an accident. However, our study suggests the opposite: that airbags have been killing more people than they have been saving.

 Airbags are known to save lives. Airbags are also known to kill people. It is widely believed that the balance is in favor of airbags. Government and private studies have shown a statistically significant beneficial effect of presence of airbags on the probability of surviving an accident. However, our study suggests the opposite: that airbags have been killing more people than they have been saving.

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Our analysis shows that previous estimates of airbag effectiveness are flawed, because a limited database was used. We have demonstrated this by reproducing their results, using a subsample of the CDS data. The new estimates of effectiveness suggest that airbags are not the lifesaving devices we have believed them to be.

Our analysis shows that previous estimates of airbag effectiveness are flawed, because a limited database was used. We have demonstrated this by reproducing their results, using a subsample of the CDS data. The new estimates of effectiveness suggest that airbags are not the lifesaving devices we have believed them to be.

Latest revision as of 16:02, 7 May 2008
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Mathematics is not an opinion.
Here are some Forsooth items from the October issue of RSS News.
But a good degree can make all the difference..to the prospect of actually being able to pay off that massive student debt-- the majority of students now graduate owing a crushing 13,501 pounds.
23 April 2005
The RRS Forsooth also included picture of a Peperami sausage label that started their ingredients with Pork (108%).
The Blogs had great fun with this forsooth. Benbryves a member of Game Dev.net gave the following picture from the back of the Peperamii sausage that he bought a Sainsbury's supermarket
Droid Young on the Team Phoenix Rising Forums website said that he wrote to the company and got the following answer:
Dear Mr Young
Thank you for your enquiry.
Peperami is a salted and cured spicy meat snack.
The weight of the raw meat going into Peperami exceeds the weight of the end product because the recipe loses moisture, and therefore loses weight, during the fermentation, drying and smoking process.
Please contact us again if we can be of any further assistance.
Kind regards
Does the company answer seem reasonable to you?
Supreme Court Nominee Alito: Statistics Misleading?
An article in Salon.com for October 31 discusses the case Riley v. Taylor. The plaintiff Riley, convicted at trial of first-degree murder, was African-American; at the trial, the prosecution used its peremptory challenges to eliminate all three of the African-Americans on the jury panel. In the same county that year, there were three other first-degree murder trials, and in every one of those cases all of the African-American jurors were struck.
Riley appealed his conviction. A majority of the judges on the appeals court thought that there was evidence that jurors were struck for racial reasons. According to them, a simple calculation indicates that there should have been five African-American jurors amongst the forty-eight that were empanelled in the four cases. However, there were none. To these judges, this was clear evidence of racial motivation in the striking of such jurors.
Judge Alito dissented. He called the majority's analysis simplistic, and stated that although only 10% of the U.S. population is left-handed, five of the last six people elected president of the United States were left-handed. He asked rhetorically whether this indicated bias against right-handers amongst the U.S. electorate.
The majority responded that there is no provision in the Constitution that protects persons from discrimination based on whether they are right-handed or left-handed, and that to compare these cases with the handedness of presidents ignores the history of racial discrimination in the United States.
1) Assuming that Judge Alito is correct about the proportion of left-handers in the U.S. population, what is the probability that five of the last six presidents elected would be left-handed?
2) Is Judge Alito's comparison biased by the fact that he chose just the last six presidents? Presumably he believed that the president just before this group was right-handed, otherwise he would have included him in the sample and said "six of the last seven presidents." What is the relevant statistic?
3) When the decision came down in 2001, the last six people elected president were George W. Bush, Clinton, George H. W. Bush, Reagan, Carter and Nixon. Of these, Clinton and George H. W. Bush were left-handed. Ford, who was left-handed, was not elected president (or even vice-president); he became president upon the resignation of Richard Nixon. Reagan may have been left-handed as a child, but he wrote right-handed so his case isn't clear; the Reagan Presidential Library says that he was "generally right-handed." Judge Alito may have been confused, including on his list Ford (who was not elected) and George W. Bush (who is not left-handed, although his father is), as well as Reagan. The other left-handed presidents were Truman and Garfield. Hoover is found on some lists of left-handed presidents, but according to the Hoover Institution, he was not left-handed. How does this information affect Alito's argument?
4) Suppose that 5/48 of the jury pool were African-American. What is the probability that no juror amongst the 48 selected would have been African-American? How does this compare with the actual statistics of left-handed presidents? Does the same objection apply to this case as might apply to Alito's example?
5) What is your opinion? Is there clear statistical evidence of racial bias in the use of peremptory challenges in this county?
6) What does it say about our judiciary that Judge Alito could get his facts as wrong as he did, and that none of the judges in the majority caught the errors?
Contributed by Bill Jefferys
Who wants Airbags
Who wants Airbags?
Chance Magazine, Spring 2005
Mary C. Meyer and Tremik Finney
This article is available from the Chance Magazine web site under "Feature Articles". The data for this study is available http://www.stat.uga.edu/~mmeyer/airbags.htm here.
Here is the author's description of their study.
Airbags are known to save lives. Airbags are also known to kill people. It is widely believed that the balance is in favor of airbags. Government and private studies have shown a statistically significant beneficial effect of presence of airbags on the probability of surviving an accident. However, our study suggests the opposite: that airbags have been killing more people than they have been saving.
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) keeps track of deaths due to airbags; you can find a list of deaths on the NHTSA web site, along with conditions under which these deaths occurred. Each death occurred in a low speed collision, and for each, there is no other possible cause of death. Is it reasonable to assume that airbags can kill people only at low speeds? Isn't it more likely that airbags also kill people at higher speeds, but the death may be attributed to the crash? In this study we compare fatality rates for occupants with airbags available to fatality rates for occupants without airbags, controlling for possible confounding factors such as seatbelt use, impact speed, and direction of impact. What effect does the presence of an airbag have on the probability of death in a crash, under various conditions?
The main difference between our study and the previous studies is the choice of the dataset. We use the NASS CDS database, which is a stratified random sample of crashes nationwide. Previous studies showing beneficial effects of airbags have all used the FARS database, which contains data for all crashes in which a fatality occurred. We can limit our analyses to a subset of the NASS CDS database, choosing only crashes where there was at least one fatality; this should be a random sample of the FARS database. When we perform the analyses on this subsample, we can reproduce the results of previous studies: in accidents in which a fatality occurs, airbags are beneficial. However, for the entire random sample of crashes, they increase rather than decrease the probability of death.
Here is an analogy to help understand this: If you look at people who have cancer, radiation treatment will improve their probability of survival. However, radiation treatment is dangerous and can actually cause cancer. Making everyone in the country have airbags and measuring effectiveness only in the fatality group, is like making everyone have radiation treatment and looking only at the cancer group to check efficacy. Within the cancer group, radiation will be found to be effective, but there will be more deaths on the whole.
This is what seems to be happening with airbags. In a severe accident, airbags can save lives. However, they are inherently dangerous and pose a risk to the occupant. Our analyses show that in lower-speed crashes, the occupant is significantly more likely to die with an airbag than without. This effect is not seen in the analysis using FARS, because this database does not contain information about low-speed crashes without deaths.
Our analysis shows that previous estimates of airbag effectiveness are flawed, because a limited database was used. We have demonstrated this by reproducing their results, using a subsample of the CDS data. The new estimates of effectiveness suggest that airbags are not the lifesaving devices we have believed them to be.
Of course one should ask what the National Traffic Administration thinks of this. The Journal asked them to respond and they did so. Their response by Charles Kahane was that the FARS data should be used since the CDC data that the authors used was too small to obtain significant results.
The authors of the Chance Magazine article replied that they were able to get significant results using the CDC data and the usiing the FARS data would be answering the wrong question. They write:
If a front-seat occupant wishes to ask the question, "If I get in an accident, am I less likely or mare likely to die, if I have an airbag?" The proper way to answer this question is with the CDS dataset. Withe the FARS dataset, the question one can answer is. "If I get in a highway accident in which there is at least one fatality, am I less likely or more likely to die, if I have an airbag?
The article itself does not include this exchange but you can read it here.
This would be a great article to discuss in a statistics class. The authors clearly explain the methods they used and why they used them. Since they have provided the data for their students students could use this for their own analysis.
Submitted by Laurie Snell
Pick a number, any number
Problems with measures of government performance and productivity, The Economist, Nov 3rd 2005.
PSA targets: the devil in the detail, (UK) Statistics Commission, October 2005 - you can comment of the report up to the end of this month (Nov 2005).
A recent report from the Statistics Commission, an independent body that monitors UK official statistics, claims that many Government performance targets are seriously flawed. These Public Service Agreement (PSA) targets by, and for, government departments are intended to measure the desired outcomes from Government policies, in particular spending policies. There are a total of 102 separate PSA targets that were set in the 2004 Spending Review.
Some were critisised for being incomprehensibly complex, such as the 23 separate indicators for British research innovation performance, each with its own target and four milestones. The report says some targets would be missed if a single case falls below a given threshold. For example, if even one school out of 3,400 fails to bring half its pupils up to scratch in each of English, maths and science, then that target would be missed. In other cases, the necessary data doesn't exist.
A frequently-voiced criticism of the targets associated with previous spending reviews was that many had been defined without sufficient consideration of the Government's ability to measure performance against them. That is, attempts to quantify some aspirational targets lead to the creation of targets that seems artifical or forced.
It is however obvious that the availability, credibility and validity of data indicating progress against these targets is fundamental to trust in the integrity of the target-setting process. The Commission is therefore concerned to assess whether the statistical evidence to support PSAs is adequate. The question of whether the statistical underpinnings are adequate can only be answered 'bottom up' by reviewing each and every target.
In view of the importance of PSA targets, the Commission recommends that more consideration should be given to the adequacy of the statistical infrastructure to support their future evolution.
What is needed is a robust cross-government planning system for official statistics that can pick up the future data requirements (to support the setting of targets) at the earliest possible stage and feed those effectively into the allocation of departmental resources.
The Commission recommends that government departments should pay more attention to data quality issues. It quotes The National Audit Office which says
the allocation of clear responsibility for data quality and active management oversight of data systems would reinforce the importance of data quality.
The Royal Statistical Society has produced a report which comments on aspects of the PSA targets.
Further reading
Performance Indicators: Good, Bad and Ugly, Royal Statistical Society - Working Party on Performance Monitoring in the Public Services, which stresses that performance monitoring when done badly can be very costly, not merely ineffective but harmful and indeed destructive.
Submitted by John Gavin.
A roulette winner
Judge rules for Madrid gambler
The Guardian, June 24, 2004
Ben Sills in Granada
Court backs gambler
The Age Madrid, June 24,2004
Since 1990 Gonzalo Garcia-Pelayo with the help of friends and relatives made a statistical study of the numbers winning numbers in roulette in the Casino Gran Madrid. He found that some numbers were winning numbers as often as once in every 28 throws apparently due to imperfections in the wheel, floors not being level, irregularly sized ball slots etc.
The article reports that Gonzalo used his analysis to win more than a million euros during a two year run. From another article we learn that Gonzalo was denied entry to the casino in 1992 but the government in 1994 overruled the casino. The casino they tried to get the courts to uphold their right to not let Gonzalo enter the casino. For ten years the case went through the courts and in 2004 Spain's Supreme Court ruled against the casino.
According to the The Age article:
The Supreme Court ruling said Garcia-Pelayo and company used "ingenuity and computer techniques. ˇThat's all."
The Guardian reports:
But despite this week's ruling he has no plans to return to Madrid's roulette tables. "I'm too well known," he said. Instead he plans to sue the casino for 1.2 million euros in lost earnings.
Gonzalo's story was the subject of a History Channel program and is available from their website as a DVD.
This was a part of the History Channel's "Breaking Vegas" series of 13 programs, which tell the stories of Ed Thorp, the MIT GROUP, and others who have tried to beat the casinos. You can read a review of this series here.
Battle of the sexes
Who has the bigger brain?, The Observer, Sunday November 6, 2005.
'Men cleverer than women' claim , BBC News on-line
The great intellectual divide, by Fiona McCray, Daily Mail, 25th August 2005.
Men 'grasping at straws' over intelligence claims , Donald MacLeod, The Guardian, August 25, 2005.
IQ claim will fuel gender row, Phil Baty, The Times Higher Educational Supplement, 26 August 2005.
In August, Dr Paul Irwing and Professor Richard Lynn announced that men are significantly cleverer than women and that male university students outstrip females by almost five IQ points. Their research was based on IQ tests given to 80,000 people and a further study of 20,000 students.
The academics used a test which is said to measure "general cognitive ability" - spatial and verbal ability. As intelligence scores among the study group rose, they claim they found a widening gap between the sexes. For example, there were twice as many men with IQ scores of 125, a level said to correspond with people getting first-class degrees. At scores of 155, associated with genius, there were 5.5 men for every woman.
Their work is based on a technique known as meta-analysis. They examined dozens of previous studies of men's and women's IQs, research that had been carried out in different countries between 1964 and 2004 and published in a variety of different journals. Then they subjected these studies to an intense statistical analysis.
Dr Irwing told The Times
The differences may go some way to explaining the greater numbers of men achieving distinctions of various kinds, such as chess grandmasters, Fields medallists for mathematics, Nobel prize-winners and the like.
But just recently, the work of the two academics was attacked in unusually strong terms in the journal Nature, just as a paper officially outlining their work was published in the British Journal of Psychology. Tim Lincoln from Nature justified the attack by saying
We were made aware that Irwing and Lynn's results were based on a seriously flawed methodology, and had the opportunity to provide timely expert opinion when their paper became publicly available.
The author of the Nature paper, Dr Steve Blinkhorn, went futher
Their study - which claims to show major sex differences in IQ - is simple, utter hogwash.
Blinkhorn said the pair were ignoring a vast body of work that had found no differences. In particular, Blinkhorn said
they chose to ignore a massive study, carried out in Mexico, which showed there was very little difference in the IQs of men and women. They say it is "an outlier" in data terms --in other words, it was a statistical freak,'. It was nothing of the kind. It was just plain inconvenient. Had it been included, as it should have been, it would have removed a huge chunk of the differences they claim to have observed.
He goes on to say
Psychologists often carry out studies that find no differences between men's and women's IQs but don't publish them for the simple reason that finding nothing seems uninteresting. But you have to take these studies into account as well as those studies that do find differences. But Lynn and Irwing did not. That also skewed their results.
Blinkhorn also accuses the pair of adopting a variety of statistical manoeuvres that he describes, in his paper, as being 'flawed and suspect'. Last week Irwing defended the study saying
The study they had done also has to be seen in context of our other work which has shown significant sex differences in IQ. Nor is it true that we played about with our data.
Blinkhorn is unrepentant and states in Nature.
Sex differences in average IQ, if they exist at all, are too small to be interesting.
The Guardian article finishes by highlighting other recent rows that have erupted over papers in leading journals.
- In 1998, Andrew Wakefield caused a furore when he wrote an article in the Lancet claiming a link between autism and the MMR vaccine. The paper led to a boycott of the vaccine by many parents in the UK, although scientists have been unable to establish any of his claims. Critics attacked the Lancet for publishing the paper.
- The Lancet journal was also criticised by Nobel laureate Aaron Klug for printing a paper claiming the immune systems of rats were damaged after they were fed genetically modified potatoes. The claims have never been substantiated.
- In contrast, last year's Nature paper, in which scientists revealed they had found remains of a race of tiny apemen, Homo floresiensis, has survived scrutiny despite claims that the fossils really belonged to deformed Homo sapiens. Research has since confirmed the original paper's results.
Perhaps not too surprisingly, the more female orientated Daily Mail highlights a competing survey. This time 1,500 women were surveyed by Perfectil, which makes health supplements. Highlighted results include:
- Women are taking the upper hand in relationships and growing in confidence about their looks.
- Almost two-thirds say they would ask a man to marry them rather than wait for him to pop the question, and one in three say they are comfortable chatting men up.
- As for sexual attraction, women are quick to know what they want. Twelve per cent say they know within ten seconds of starting a conversation with a man whether or not they fancy him. The majority make up their minds within five minutes.
- It found that women are becoming less and less bothered by wrinkles. Two in five want to age gracefully.
- Asked why they thought men were becoming obsessed with their looks, 88 per cent of the women said it was because men know they cannot be complacent as their wives or girlfriends may lose interest in them.
- Does the fact that Perfectil make health supplements influence your opinion of their survey's results? What additional information might you ask for to be sure their results are not biased?
Submitted by John Gavin.
Statistical Prediction Rules
In "Epistemology and the Psychology of Human Judgement" (2005) Oxford University Press, Michael Bishop and J.D Trout argue that we need a new tent for various mathematical, computational, philosophical and psychological results called "Ameliorative Psychology" whose task would be to help people in their everyday reasoning by teaching them some simple-to-use statistical prediction rules (SPRs) that are demonstrably better than relying upon non-statistical rules (e.g., personal and clinical intuition).
It is argued that the identification and justification of statistical prediction rules is the proper task of epistimology and would make the discipline practically relevant to the overall goals of "Amelioriative Psychology". Bishop and Trout see SPR's as a strategic route by which the discipline of (applied) epistemology might become more practically relevant to improving the success of everyday reasoning.
Marital Happiness SPR
The Marital Happiness SPR is "a low-cost reasoning strategy for predicting marital happiness. Take the couple's rate of love making and subtract from it their rate of fighting. If the couple makes love more than they fight, then they will probably report being happy; if they fight more often then they make love, then they will probably report being unhappy." (p. 30)
The procedural version of this SPR might look like this:
if ((#L - #F) >= 0) report Happy else report UnHappy
There is apparently good empirical evidence for this rule and one might therefore argue that teaching this rule to the general public might be a worthy goal of "Ameloriative Psychology" - it would offer reliable and simple-to-use quantitaive guidance when reasoning about the causes and correlates of marital happiness.
SPRs are successful in the long run
Statistical prediction rules are useful for the other girl/guy. We often feel that 1) our clinical judgement in a particular situation is very good or 2) the present case is different in some important respect that obviates the need for a statistical prediction rule to reason about this particular instance. Bishop and Trout caution about overconfidence bias in our abilities to predict the future better than an SPR. Also, the occasional and convenient use of an SPR renders the assumptions of its use invalid.
What Paul Meehl hath wrought upon us
The authors frequently cite the work of Paul Meehl. Paul Meehl, who died in 2003, was a clinical psychology methodologist who long advocated the use of statistical prediction rules in clinical reasoning instead of relying on "clinical intuition". His ground breaking research in the 50's showed that SPR's generally out-performed clinicical psychologists in diagnostic decision making.
Meelh, P. 1954. Clinical versus Statististical Prediction: A Theoretical Analysis and a Review of the Evidence. Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press.
Bishop and Trout's work can be viewed as generalizing Meehl's epistemic/methodological conclusions and recommendations beyond the domain of clinical psychology to the task of using SPRs to improve everyday reasoning more generally.
Further properties of SPRs
Applied epistemologists should not be concerned with helping to formulate and teach SPRs for solving trivial problems. Users should be able to readily use SPRs for solving significant everyday problems. Recommended SPRs should be fairly robust in the face of small differences in the nature of the problem. An SPR should be more reliable than other methods of prediction for that domain; if not, it should be more feasible to use than a potentially superior method of prediction. This cost/benefit approach to indentifying, teaching, and using SPRs is called "Strategic Reliabilism" and is the foundational epistemological theory Bishop and Trout use to justify their recommendations.


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The Situation of Eating
Posted by The Situationist Staff on January 26, 2008
On many occasions, we have discussed how one's situation can play a major role in his or her eating patterns, often in ways that go undetected. Along those lines, though obesity is often attributed to a lack of will, laziness, or poor eating habits, it likely better reflects one's situation and the constraints placed on it.
Shari Roan of the Los Angeles Times offers a great summary of situational influences on eating, and we excerpt her list below.
* * *
People can be influenced to eat unhealthful food, or more food than they should, without even realizing it.
One study, published last year in the Journal of Consumer Research, found that people think they are eating healthfully if it's advertised that way. Researchers had people eat Subway meals that contained the same amount of calories as a McDonald's meal, but the people estimated that the Subway meal contained 35% fewer calories.
A 2004 study in the journal Appetite showed that people who are served bigger portions will eat more. Men given large bags of potato chips ate triple the number of chips — an extra 311 calories — compared with men given a small bag of chips.
A 2004 study in the Annual Review of Nutrition found that people ate 69% more jelly beans when they were offered in a mixed assortment than a group offered jelly beans sorted by color.
A 2005 study in the journal Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin found that the more pleasant the environment, the more people will eat. People shown a picture of a smiling person poured more of a drink, drank more and rated the drink more favorably than people shown pictures of a frowning person.
A 2003 study in the American Journal of Clinical Nutrition found that doubling the size of an entree increased overall food intake 25%. The consumers did not compensate for the bigger entree by decreasing the intake of other food on their plates.
A 1992 study in Physiology & Behavior found that food consumption increased 28% when one other person was present and 71% when six or more companions were present.
A study published last year in the New England Journal of Medicine showed that obesity can spread through social networks. A person's chances of becoming obese increased 57% if he or she had a friend who became obese in the same time period. If one sibling became obese, the chance that the other would become obese increased 40%.
Several studies published in the 1970s and 1980s show that doubling the shelf space of an item in a grocery store increases sales of the item as much as 40%.
* * *
For more on the situation of eating, see Situationist contributors Adam Benforado, Jon Hanson, and David Yosfion's law review article Broken Scales: Obesity and Justice in America. For a listing of numerous Situaitonist posts on the situational sources of obesity, click here.


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Update: Two dead, one injured in Happy Camp rock slide
YREKA – Two men died and one was injured as a result of a rock slide on Highway 96 near Happy Camp on Wednesday, confirmed the Siskiyou County Sheriff's Office.
Rescue personnel were dispatched to the scene on Highway 96 at mile marker 37.5 southwest of Happy Camp at approximately 12:26 p.m.
According to Denise Yergenson, Caltrans (California Department of Transportation) spokesperson, the men were Caltrans employees. They were doing rock scaling work (pulling loose rock of the slope) when the incident occurred.
Joseph "Robert" Jones, 40, of Montague and Shawn Baker, 50, of Weed, lost their lives. Kevin Skillen, 50, of Yreka, was injured and he was transported by helicopter to Rogue Valley Medical Center in Medford. According to Yergenson, he is in stable condition.
At print time, Yergenson said Caltrans had not completed its incident report and she was not able to give further details.
Highway 96 traffic was diverted in the vicinity of the accident until 3 p.m., at which time Caltrans initiated one-way traffic control. It took crews most of the day to clear the scene.
According to a press release issued by Caltrans, all three of the men held the position of Equipment Operator II.
Jones had been employed by Caltrans for seven years. He leaves behind his wife, his 19-year-old stepson, his 15-year-old son and his 13-year-old daughter.
Baker had been a Caltrans employee for 12 years. He leaves behind his wife, two daughters ages 25 and 21 and two sons, ages 19 and 16.
"Our thoughts and prayers go out to the Jones and Baker families. We are doing everything we can to support them and the Skillen family at this very difficult time," said Caltrans District 2 Director John Bullinski in the release. "We are a very close family here at Caltrans and when an incident like this happens, it effects us all."
The release stated that Caltrans is working closely with investigators to determine the exact causes of death.
The Daily News will provide updates on this incident as information becomes available.


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Boston Marathon bombings: Suspect could get death penalty
BOSTON — A seriously wounded Dzhokhar Tsarnaev was charged in his hospital room Monday with bombing the Boston Marathon in a plot with his older brother and could get the death penalty for the attack that killed three people.
Tsarnaev, 19, was charged by federal prosecutors with using and conspiring to use a weapon of mass destruction — a bomb — to kill.
The criminal complaint containing the allegations shed no light on the motive. But it gave a detailed sequence of events and cited surveillance-camera images of Tsarnaev dropping off a knapsack with one of the bombs and using a cellphone, perhaps to coordinate or detonate the blasts.
The two pressure-cooker bombs sprayed shrapnel into the crowd at the finish line last Monday. Moore than 200 people were wounded, and the dead included an 8-year-old boy.
The Massachusetts college student was listed in serious but stable condition at Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center with a gunshot wound to the throat and other injuries. His brother, Tamerlan, 26, died last week in a fierce gunbattle with police.
"Although our investigation is ongoing, today's charges bring a successful end to a tragic week for the city of Boston and for our country," Attorney General Eric Holder said in a statement.
The charges carry the death penalty or a prison sentence of up to life.
More coverage
Governor calls for moment of silence
Foreign nationals arrested in New Bedford
VIDEO: Coverage of the entire manhunt
PHOTOS: Celebration follows capture
In outlining the evidence against him in court papers, the FBI said Tsarnaev was seen on surveillance cameras putting a knapsack down on the ground near the site of the second blast and then manipulating a cellphone and lifting it to his ear.
Seconds later, the first explosion went off about a block down the street and spread fear and confusion through the crowd. But Tsarnaev — unlike nearly everyone around him — looked calm and quickly walked away, the FBI said.
Just 10 seconds or so later, the second blast occurred where he had left the knapsack, the FBI said.
The FBI did not make it clear whether authorities believe he used his cellphone to detonate one or both of the bombs or whether he was talking to someone.
The court papers also said that during the long night of crime Thursday and Friday that led to the older brother's death and the younger one's capture, one of the Tsarnaev brothers told a carjacking victim: "Did you hear about the Boston explosion? I did that."
The brothers are ethnic Chechens from Russia who have lived in the U.S. for about a decade. Investigators are focusing on a trip the older brother made last year to Chechnya and Dagestan, in a region of Russia that has become a hotbed of separatist politics and Islamic extremism.
In addition to the federal charges, the younger Tsarnaev brother is also likely to face state charges in connection with the shooting death of an MIT police officer.
The Obama administration said it had no choice but to prosecute Tsarnaev in the federal court system. Some politicians had suggested he be tried as an enemy combatant in front of a military tribunal, where defendants are denied some of the usual U.S. constitutional protections.
But Tsarnaev is a naturalized U.S. citizen, and under U.S. law, American citizens cannot be tried by military tribunals, White House spokesman Jay Carney said. Carney said that since 9/11, the federal court system has been used to convict and imprison hundreds of terrorists.
In its criminal complaint, the FBI said it searched Tsarnaev's dorm room at the University of Massachusetts-Dartmouth on Sunday and found BBs as well as a white hat and dark jacket that look like those worn by one of one of the suspected bombers in the surveillance photos the FBI released a few days after the attack.
Seven days after the bombings, meanwhile, Boston was bustling Monday, with runners hitting the pavement, children walking to school and enough cars clogging the streets to make the morning commute feel almost back to normal.
Residents paused in the afternoon to observe a moment of silence at 2:50 p.m., the time of the first blast. Church bells tolled across the city and state in tribute to the victims.


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Eclipse IDE
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text:
Miniature Painting
Islamic miniature painting is generally understood to mean small paintings that are or once were part of a manuscript, used as a frontispiece or an illustration for a text. Drawings and individual paintings have, however, also been preserved. They were either sketches or were intended to be placed as independent works of art in an album.
The miniatures usually had a paper base, but cardboard and in rare cases cotton or silk cloth were also used. The brilliant colors are usually opaque.
The oldest preserved miniature paintings were made in around the year 1000, but not until around 1200 were they found in larger numbers. Islamic miniature painting is often categorized rather summarily into four regional schools: the Arab, the Persian, the Indian, and the Ottoman Turkish.


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The Wii U's track record for poorer-than-expected sales grows longer after February, when only 64,000 consoles went off store shelves in the US, according to a report from NPD Group. This is a major shortfall from Nintendo's sales projections at launch—the company thought it would sell nearly two million units per month worldwide from the beginning of January through the end of March.
The Wii U sold to the tune of 3.06 million units from its launch in November through the end of 2012, according to reports, nearly as many as the original Wii sold in the 2006 holiday season. But sales have fallen off a cliff since, with NPD citing US sales as low as 57,000 units during January.
At the end of January, Nintendo lowered its worldwide sales projections for the first quarter from 5.5 million to 4 million. If US sales are any indication, the company may not even come close to that adjusted number. According to Gamasutra, sales may have taken a hit in January when speculators who bought consoles to resell were not able to make a profit off them.
The Wii U enjoyed some time in the spotlight during the holiday season as the only new console, especially positioned next to the 6-year-old PlayStation 3 and 7-year-old Xbox 360. Now that the PlayStation 4 and Microsoft's next-gen console codenamed "Durango" loom large, more consumers may sit back to see what Sony and Microsoft turn out before making a decision.


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Trembley, whatcha gonna do when they come for you?
Mr. Dave Trembley may not have a job for long. I am just here to debate over the pros and cons of Dave as a manager. Many fans still do like him, although most are beyond frustrated with some of his coaching decisions that they want him out asap.
There are three main aspects of baseball: hitting, pitching, and defense. I stick baserunning in their with hitting, only because I feel like if you hit you need to be able to make your way around the bases too.
With hitting this season, Dave has been mixing up the lineup. Not just a guy moving one spot up or down, but day to day flipping the lineup upside down. It's debatable whether this is good or not, but I tend to go with skip on this one. Until something consistently works, there's no reason to stick with any formal plan. By working, I don't mean that you have to win every single game or else switch things up, but at least getting some strings of hits together in games and figuring out who works best in front of and behind certain guys. Some think he must just put the names in a hat and pull them out. Soon enough, Atkins will be leading off with Izturis cleaning up.
People say situational hitting isn't there. We have seen many times where the right call for the right type of hitting was made, but guys cannot seem to get balls down at the right time, deep in the air at the right time, or even hits at any time. Crowley may be good, but the players need to be at a certain level already to be on a major league club, or else nobody at this level can help them.
Baserunning. Lots of people complain that we don't steal, and that we
make errors on the base paths. I know he is part of it, but come on,
that's up to Shelby and Samuel to fix. That's all they get paid to do.
Pitching has been a big issue up and down for the O's. For the most part, except for the occasional mishap, our starting rotation has been quite consistent and strong, which is something that O's fans are not used to. The issues come down to our bullpen. There are times, even weeks, where the 'pen is able to close out games and look perfect throughout, then others (like with Gonzo, and this past Saturday night), where it looks like we have nobody to trust there. A lot of it is just the player's performance. Dave has no power over how guys do, he just picks and chooses who goes in out of the set of arms he has provided to him. People blame him for bullpen breakdowns, but I see no reason to. He goes by the book and sometimes takes some risks, just as any coach should, and the guys MacPhail has given him just aren't always working out.
Ignoring the three fundamental categories above, Dave is also a fun guy… sort of. The big pro for Trembley is how he relates to the guys. He has lots of experience coaching down in the minor leagues, so it is actually quite useful that he has the communication skills for a ballclub like this one to be able to communicate well with a core of raw, young talent.
The communication, though, seems to stop there. Last night, his press conference was only 2 mins and 10 secs. That's it. Not sure if the media ran out of questions for him (I hope that's not it, because I have tons) or if they are just frustrated with his generalized answers. Yes, coaches and people in other organizations have been known to be short and broad with their answers at these things, but those guys are usually with winning clubs, so nobody cares. O's fans want answers, and they want them now.
My issue is that we will never know where the problem really is. I have always loved Trembley with this club, because of the communication I spoke about above with the players. MacPhail provides him with a group of guys, and he has to work with what he gets. Where I get confused is to how much MacPhail is allowed to spend on guys, and how much say Trembley has in those decisions to enhance the ballclub. There's no reason Trembley should be blamed for the horrible seasons by Atkins at the plate and Tejada at 3rd so far, since those moves were clearly not his doing. I feel like more is put on the man than he deserves only because so little is really up to him. The pitching is Kranny; the hitting is Crow. Trembley has these guys mindsets in his hands, and I think the team needs to just come together when they have an off day and just gel.
Well, as you read, I am more for Trembley than against. Specifically, people got upset with his decision Saturday night to put Simon in and not leave Uehara in after a great 8th. There is no reason why you don't go with a guy there when he is someone you have been relying on lately to save. He may be risky at times, but no coach would have played that any differently. You will never see Girardi keep Joba in for the 9th and hold out Mariano just because the 8th was solid. Another thing Saturday was people arguing about replacing Wigginton with Lugo. Every coach would have done that also. Yea, in the end, it didn't help in the bottom of the 9th to have Wigginton out. But look at it: You have a two run lead going into the 9th. If you can get 3 outs then you can go home and forget the bottom of the inning completely. To get those outs, you want a good defensive backup. On any day, any coach would want Lugo at the middle infield positions over Wigginton. Wigginton may be a good fill-in guy, but Lugo is the one with the glove.
A few speculations as to his job. Could be fired after the game tonight, win or loss, but because it will lead into a roadtrip to give a new guy a fresh start without dealing with the home crowd. Could be after the roadtrip; where the team is playing in DC on Sunday and it could be done that night or the off day Monday to give the new coach a chance to settle in for a day and meet the guys (unless it is someone like Datz, who knows them by now). Or it could be in June. Or never. Who knows. I hope MacPhail just realizes how a lot of this is not Dave's fault, but more his. The team needs to see that more blame needs to be put on the players, not the coaches.
We will see what the O's decide to do. I think it would be sad if Trembley is dismissed without being given a shot with a true team, but that's how life works I guess. Angelos needs to shell out some cash for some guys, or else we will never be able to compete. No one is playing well in Norfolk, so why is it all Dave's fault that his entire organization is playing poorly? Who knows. Good luck to Dave.


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NHL, NHLPA hit rough patch after an extended run of CBA negotiations
NEW YORK, N.Y. - Any goodwill built during an extended run of collective bargaining talks between the NHL and NHL Players' Association quickly evaporated Friday.
The sides emerged red-faced and frustrated after hitting a road block during their fourth consecutive day together at the bargaining table. The league and union looked to be moving slowly towards a deal after trading proposals earlier in the week, but ended up exchanging some heated words after discovering they were still about US$380 million apart on economics.
"We looked at some of the numbers on the various proposals and we thought we were much closer together on the structure of a deal than the suggestions were," said NHLPA executive director Donald Fehr. "They came back to us and said, 'No, we're very, very far apart on the structure of a deal.'"
There were no further bargaining sessions scheduled, but Fehr remained hopeful they would pick up talks again Saturday.
The fundamental issue they are trying to bridge is agreeing to a system where the players' overall share in revenue can be drastically reduced while ensuring all existing contracts are honoured. The league's most recent offer would see players receive US$211-million guaranteed in deferred "make-whole" payments—not nearly enough to satisfy the union.
"If the notion is that they are honouring all of the contracts and everybody's going to get paid everything they were supposed to be paid according to the letter of the contracts, it's of course not true and never has been," said Fehr. "I don't quite know where that notion came from."
A week that started with the sides agreeing to meet at an undisclosed location and refrain from making public comments didn't end quite as quietly. Sources indicated that the league was also frustrated with the lack of progress, although Bettman remained even-keeled during a short session with reporters.
Now presiding over the third lockout of his tenure, he refused to characterize the status of negotiations.
"I don't want to either raise or lower expectations," said Bettman. "I won't be happy until we get to the end result and that means we're playing again."
Beneath the surface, there is plenty of tension to be found.
Fehr found himself defending his leadership after a memo he sent to players was leaked to reporters and a report later surfaced that the league didn't believe he was doing an adequate job of informing his constituents about exactly what was being proposed.
Flanked by a handful of players who attended Friday's bargaining session, he pointed out that only the four owners on the NHL's bargaining committee have attended meetings.
"Owners can't come to meetings when they want to to hear stuff directly but every single player can at the union's expense," said Fehr. "He can come and hear for himself, make the judgments, and all the rest of it."
It wasn't a good day for those who are hoping to see the NHL begin a shortened season soon.
There had been some hope that talks were progressing, especially with the sides locked in their longest run of negotiations since CBA talks began more than four months ago. Bettman did note that it's always "better to be together and talk" before slipping in a proviso: "When there's something to talk about."
In addition to their disagreement on the "make whole" provision, the sides are still grappling with proposed changes to rules governing contracts. The league hasn't backed off any of the demands made in its Oct. 18 proposal, according to sources, and the union continues to believe it shouldn't have to make concessions in those areas because it has committed to seeing the players' share in revenue decreased.
The NHL and NHLPA are attempting to strike a deal that would end the 55-day lockout, which has already forced the cancellation of 327 regular-season games and delivered considerable damage to the league's business.
There seems to be some commitment to continuing talks. It's possible that the negotiations will run through the weekend and force Bettman and Fehr to miss the Hockey Hall of Fame induction ceremony in Toronto. However, that will only happen if the sides can start playing a little nicer—and making a little progress.
"(We're prepared to do) whatever it takes," said Bettman. "We're available and, as I said, we're waiting to hear back from the players' association in terms of when they'll be ready."
That answer wasn't readily available after a rough day of negotiations.
"I don't know what will happen next," said Fehr.


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We have licensed, professional, courteous plumbers that can provide solutions for all of your plumbing needs, including:
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Most of the items you put down the drain will remain unchanged from the time they go down the household drain or toilet. They don't breakdown and tend to clog the wastewater system. The cost of maintaining the system will reflect on your utility bill. Grease is a liquid when it goes down but quickly hardens on the pipes. The oil accumulates on the canals and ultimately makes the pipe so small that even typical wastewater can not make its way through the system. That only leaves one way for it to flow.
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The most common sign that your water heater needs repair is that it doesn't provide sufficient hot water. Low heat can be caused by several things, including a problem with the thermostat on the water heater, thinning of the insulation inside the water heater, or build-up of sediment on the base of the water heater blocking heat transfer. However, no matter what the cause, it will likely cost you money as you run water for longer, trying to get it to become hot.
If you are interested in replacing your current water heater, we recommend you ask one of our plumbing specialists about the benefits of switching to a tankless water heater. Tankless water heaters have a higher initial installation fee but use up to 50% less energy than those with tanks and, in turn, save typical family hundreds of dollars a year on their water bills.
We Specialize at Kitchen Plumbing Repairs and Maintenance If a problem occurs with your kitchen plumbing, call one of our professionals right away. We can remove clogs from kitchen sinks, drains, inspect your fixtures for problems, fix water pressure issues, or replace leaking or burst pipes quickly and efficiently.
To minimize the need for emergency plumbing services, we also offer routine annual maintenance visits for all plumbing systems, including those in your kitchen. During these visits, we will thoroughly inspect your kitchen plumbing pipes, drains, and fixtures for issues and make adjustments to minimize the need for repair calls in the future. We service the greater Batavia Illinois area.
Everything that goes down your sinks and toilets goes into the City's wastewater system. Things that can clog your home drain can clog the City's wastewater system, too. The system is designed to handle human waste and toilet tissue, which are biodegradable (or will break down biologically). Problems may occur when non-biodegradable materials enter the system.
Plumbing Tips and Advice:
Water Pressure
Even your pipes can get stressed. Water should enter the house at about 45 to 60 pounds per square inch (psi). You can check your water pressure with a water pressure gauge. The gauge screws to a hose bib. Water pressure over 60 psi can cause a strain on your plumbing fixtures or pipes and even cause bursts in the waterline.
Possible causes of low or no water pressure:
Faucet aerators often clog after work has been done on supply pipes because repair work often loosens rust inside the pipes. If you suspect a buildup of sediment in a supply pipe, turn off the water supply, remove the angle stop and peer down the supply pipe. If the pipe is clogged, clear it with a snake. Reattach the angle stop. Turn on the water supply and, with a bucket to catch water, flush out the pipes before reattaching the valve to the supply tube.
Frozen Pipes
Blocked or restricted water flow is the first indication of a problem. If you don't act quickly, your pipes will burst as the water expands. At the first sign of a blockage, open the faucet. Finding the blockage is critical. Trace the supply pipe to where it runs through exterior walls or other unheated parts of your house, such as the basement or crawl space. To melt the ice, use hot water, a heat gun, hair dryer or heating pad. It is far better to adopt the slower and more conservative procedure of melting ice by the use of a blow dryer or heat gun. Shield flammable materials from the heat. While applying heat, leave the faucet open so water can drain.
Once the ice melts and the pipes cool, prevent them from refreezing by wrapping them with foam insulation. Wrap all pipes that pass through unheated spaces. Pipes buried outdoors should run about 12 inches. Below the frost line and should be wrapped with foam insulation extending below frost line. If you expect a freeze, leave exposed taps dripping to prevent frozen pipes.
Plumbing Tips:
Making sure you know all of your problems so you can have them fixed by one plumber visit are very beneficial. Having them all fixed in one visit takes a lot of money off of your bill because you don't have to pay for the visit multiple times, so make sure you make a list first.
Plumbing Tips:
Feel the floors around the toilets to see if they are soft; this will help you know if you have any damage. Another great way to check is to sit on the toilet and move in a rocking motion, going back and forth from right to left to see how much give you feel. As with many problems, early detection can save you a lot of money.
Our company, is the leader in Plumbing products and services. As the top industry service provider for plumbing services, rest assured that we will keep your home or businesses plumbing working great all year around. Don't fall victim to smaller startup companies that may go out of business in a few years, put your trust in a company with over 25+ years in the industry. We service the greater Batavia Illinois area.


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Burger King plans apology after Twitter hack
Burger King said Monday that it reached out to Twitter to suspend its account after an apparent hack.
Starting just after noon Eastern time on Monday, the fast-food company's Twitter picture was changed to a McDonald's logo, the background picture changed to McDonald's new Fish McBites product and the account tweeted that it had been sold to rival McDonald's.
Some posts from the account contained racial epithets, references to drug use and obscenities. The account has also tweeted: "if I catch you at a wendys, we're fightin!"
Burger King Worldwide Inc. spokesman Bryson Thornton told The Associated Press that the company reached out to Twitter administrators to suspend the account. The account has not posted since about 1:15 EST.
The Miami company plans to post a statement on Facebook later today to apologize, especially for the offensive posts. It hopes to have the account back up soon.


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The last week of 20 Schools in 20 Days is almost here, so we're taking a look back at where we've visited in the last 20 days. Don't know where we're going next week? check out our itinerary here.
We have been having the best time visiting you all across the UAE, and we still have more schools to go. So far, you've been showing off your talents to us by singing, dancing, playing instruments and even showcasing your gymnastic skills, not to mention loads more.
With only 5 more schools to visit, we wanted to take a look back at where we've been so far - can you spot yourself or any of your friends?!
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The boys tried their 'pick up' lines on Mais Vault and things did not go according to plan...
Gary talks about the latests trends in crypto and why everyone should be getting educated on it!
Professional Boxer, promoter and philanthropist Amir khan joins the Kris Fade Show along with internet sensation and singer Abdu Rozik!


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Asian-American star James Shigeta dies
LOS ANGELES (AP) — James Shigeta, who played the lead in the 1961 movie musical Flower Drum Song and had a small role in the first Die Hard, has died. He was 85.
His sister-in-law, Ellie Shigeta, tells the Los Angeles Timesthat he died Monday at an assisted-living facility in Beverly Hills.
Born in Hawaii, Shigeta first gained national fame as a singer when he won the grand prize in the early TV talent show, The Original Amateur Hour.
Although he briefly got the spotlight after Flower Drum Song, he never again played the leading man in a major film, although he continued to appear in TV shows and movies.
In 1988's Die Hard, Shigeta played an executive who is shot by terrorists for refusing to divulge the codes to a vault.
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Canucks and Beyond
A Shiny, Clean Blog—Don't Mess It Up!
by Alanah McGinley on 12/18/06 at 07:50 AM ET
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Most Recent Blog Posts
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Alanah McGinley has been blogging hockey since 2003 (with a notable gap in time through 2010, kicking it with new baby Lucy while living knee-deep in chaos while reading "parenting for complete idiots" during every spare minute) sharing opinions, rants and not-so-deep thoughts with anyone who will listen.
In addition to writing Canucks & Beyond and helping manage Kukla's Korner, Alanah was one of the founders and co-hosts of The Crazy Canucks Podcast. She has contributed pieces to FoxSports.com and the New York Times Slapshot blog, as well as other stray destinations in cyberspace.
So that's me. Who the hell are you?
Email: [email protected]
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Rule #1 - Be Patient - Rule #2 - Don't ask when, if you don't contribute - Rule #3 - You have coding skills - LinuxMCE's small brother is available: http://www.agocontrol.com
What were the changes? would they be of use to LMCE?-Thom
Hello Andrew, Is there some new installer deb the .19version of the dianemo installer hangs then it try to start the installation by mythbuntu repos.Thanks Hernan Bugallo
We have released an update that enables you to add a Vera Lite as your Zwave interface. We support the following Vera models;*Vera 2*Vera LiteYou can add a Vera that you may already own, and that has already has been configured, and has Zwave devices included to it and they will automatically be detected and added as Dianemo Zwave devices in the device tree. You can also take a new Vera and configure it from scratch and then add it to your system too. See the Wiki entry below for the steps you need to follow to add a Vera to your system as your Zwave interface;http://wiki.linuxmce.org/index.php/Dianemo_S#Adding_A_Vera_Lite_to_you_SystemAs usual please run the Updater script to download and install this update and any previous Dianemo or Ubuntu updates your system may not have had installed yet.All the bestAndy
Does this mean that LinuxMCE/Dianemo will be able to control Zwave encryption items? Specifically door locks?In this scenario, does the Vera issue the commands to the ZWave devices or does the Dianemo box.


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Since the inception of the Hampstead SRA hoax in early 2015, parents, teachers, and clergy have lived with a terrifying possibility: that all the kidnapping and death threats spouted by promoters and followers of the hoax might take root and result in tragedy. "All it takes is one lunatic", people have said—and with good reason.
Yesterday afternoon local time in Washington, D.C., police were called to Comet Ping Pong, the target of the "pizzagate" phony news story, where a gunman armed with an assault rifle was apprehended.
According to witnesses, the restaurant, popular with families, was full of customers at the time. Fortunately, no one was injured.
D.C. Police responding Sunday to a report of a gunman at a popular pizza restaurant in Northwest Washington detained a man armed with an assault rifle, according to a police spokeswoman.
D.C. police Chief Peter Newsham said a lone suspect in his 20s walked into the front door of Comet Ping Pong with an assault rifle. Newsham said it appeared as if the suspect may have fired one or multiple shots into the ground. The man has not yet been identified and his motives were not clear.
But Comet Ping Pong, a pizza restaurant on Connecticut Avenue with ping-pong tables that is popular with families, has been caught up in a wave of conspiracy theories and fake-news stories that spread during the presidential campaign that have prompted death threats to the restaurant and nearby businesses.
Startled patrons rushed out of the restaurant onto Connecticut Avenue, taking shelter in nearby businesses and remaining locked down for more than an hour.
Newsham said the license plates on the suspect's car were not from D.C., Maryland or Virginia. Police said the man may have had an additional weapon, possibly handgun, in his car
Police received a call about a man with a weapon a just before 3 p.m., said Aquita Brown, a spokeswoman for the department.
She said there were no reports of injuries.
It's not clear what motivated the suspect in Sunday's incident. The restaurant, however, was swept up in the onslaught of fake news that was prevalent during the presidential campaign.The restaurant's owner and employees were threatened on social media in the days before the election, the New York Times reported, after fake news stories circulated claiming that then-Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton and her campaign chief were running a child sex ring from the restaurant's back rooms. None of it was true, but the fake stories and threats persisted, some even aimed at the employees' children. The restaurant's owner was forced to contact the FBI, local police, Facebook and other social media platforms in an effort to remove the articles.
Within an hour of reports beginning to emerge, conspiracy theorists had started screaming "false flag!", claiming that the reports were either untrue, or were part of (yet another) conspiracy to discredit the conspiracy theorists (following all that?).
On Sunday, Washington Post reporters involved in reporting on the story were the target of online threats shortly after it posted.
What does this mean for Hampstead?
We think the relevance to Hoaxtead is pretty self-evident. We've discussed how some of the Hoaxtead mobsters have desperately jumped aboard the "pizzagate" fake news story as they try to breathe new life into the dying Hampstead hoax, and we're all too familiar with what an upsurge in the hoax could mean.
Death threats are just another fact of life for anyone who disagrees that a cult of baby-eating, child-raping Satanists run an industrial-scale baby import business out of a church and school in a busy North London neighbourhood.
Here are just a couple, taken from a video posted by Aaron Dover:
If you have the stomach for it, check out the Trolls page on this blog for a nice cross-section of death threats we've received in the year and a half since we took this blog online.
Now, imagine that someone like the Washington suspect reads one of those threats and decides to make good on it. Not a pretty thought, but it's one the people of Hampstead cope with daily.
Yesterday's gunman only serves to underline a point we've all been screaming from the rooftops since Ella and Sabine published the names and personal information of Hampstead residents online: all it takes is one crazy person with a weapon to tip this thing from madness into tragedy.
Update: Shooter identified
According to The Washington Post, the shooter has now been identified as 28-year-old Edgar Maddison Welch, of Salisbury, N.C. He "walked in the front door of Comet Ping Pong and pointed a firearm in the direction of a restaurant employee. The employee was able to flee and notify police. Police said Welch proceeded to discharge the rifle inside the restaurant".
"The man told police he had come to the restaurant to "self-investigate" an election-related conspiracy theory involving Hillary Clinton that spread online during her presidential campaign".
"Police said in addition to the assault rifle, they also recovered two firearms inside the restaurant; an additional weapon was recovered in Welch's car. Bomb-sniffing dogs and at least one armored vehicle were present at the scene".


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As stories based on Edward Snowden's trove of leaked National Security Agency (NSA) documents continue to trickle out, most reporters have focused on what they can tell us about the spy agency's current or recent surveillance activities. Yet one of the most interesting documents from Snowden's cache, published in full by The Guardian back in June, sheds new light on the granddaddy of them all: President Bush's original warrantless wiretap program.
It was this program, itself one component of a broader initiative known as STELLAR WIND, that kicked off the modern debate over NSA surveillance powers when it was exposed in a bombshell 2005 New York Times story. An unclassified report on the "President's Surveillance Program," jointly authored by the Inspectors General of the major intelligence agencies, was released in 2009. But the newly leaked classified draft report by the NSA's Inspector General (IG) has painted a far more complete picture of STELLAR WIND's genesis and evolution. Here are five of the most interesting details either revealed or confirmed in that classified draft.
The program was broader than originally reported
Both president Bush and members of his administration repeatedly stressed that the warrantless wiretap program was narrowly limited to "persons reasonably believed to be members or agents of al Qaeda or affiliated terrorist organizations." Perhaps that was true by the time the New York Times revealed the program's existence. But the description of the NSA's IG suggests that, at least initially, the president authorized far broader surveillance, encompassing all communications between the United States and Afghanistan. As the draft report explains:
The Authorization specified that NSA could acquire the content and associated metadata of telephony and Internet communications for which there was probable cause to believe that one of the communicants was in Afghanistan or that one communicant was engaged in or preparing for acts of international terrorism. In addition, NSA was authorized to acquire telephony and Internet metadata for communications with at least one communicant outside the United States or for which no communicant was known to be a citizen of the United States.
The surveillance authorization changed over time, as the report notes, and it eventually dropped the specific reference to Afghanistan. Though the report does reference an appendix further detailing the evolution of the president's authorization over time, that document hasn't yet been published. That means it's unclear whether other countries or regions—such as, say, Iraq or Pakistan—were later subject to similar blanket surveillance authorization.
Cheney's office wanted domestic communications
According to the IG report, the first version of the warrantless wiretap authorization was drafted by David Addington—then general counsel to Vice President Dick Cheney, now a vice president at the conservative Heritage Foundation—without any input or advice from either the NSA or Justice Department lawyers. Addington subsequently pointed out to NSA director Michael Hayden that his wording "could have been interpreted to allow domestic content collection where both communicants were in the US or were US persons." That's presumably because, according to the summary quoted above, the legal wording included a mandate to wiretap communications when "one communicant was engaged in or preparing for acts of international terrorism"—without specifying that the "communicant" had to be overseas.
It was apparently Hayden who declined to take that additional step, on the grounds that the NSA was both technically and legally set up for foreign intelligence collection. Of course, since the NSA was intercepting e-mail as well as phone calls, and it's not always easy to tell in advance where the parties to an e-mail exchange are located, it seems inevitable that plenty of totally domestic communications got vacuumed into the NSA's databases anyway.
The phone companies suggested using call records
After the attacks of September 11, 2001—but before President Bush authorized the program that would become STELLAR WIND on October 4—two major telecommunications companies approached the NSA to volunteer their assistance. Though they're identified only as "COMPANY A" and "COMPANY B" in the reports, experts agree that they are almost certainly AT&T and Verizon. One of them, COMPANY B, had even done some of its own freelance intelligence work: it told the NSA that it had "noticed odd patterns in domestic calling records surrounding the events of 11 September and offered call records and analysis."
Then again, perhaps "volunteer" isn't quite the right word. The report tallies the costs of the program, which came to a bit more than $146 million over fiscal years 2002–2006. But only about $44 million of that went to the software and hardware infrastructure needed to sift through all that data. By far the biggest expense category—accounting for the other $102 million in outlays—was the "metadata and content" itself, an apparent reference to payments to the participating telecoms.
It was also the companies that eventually drove the shift to the current version of the call records program, using the Patriot Act's "business records" authority (Section 215). After the publication of the Times exposé, company lawyers appear to have gotten skittish and decided they were no longer comfortable acting on a permission slip from the president; they wanted a court order to keep coughing up the data. (And they eventually got it.)
The scale of the snooping
The original Times story that exposed the wiretap component of STELLAR WIND gave an approximate measure of how many people were under warrantless surveillance at any given time: up to 500 in the US and 5,000-7,000 foreigners. But since names were added and dropped from the target lists over time, it was hard to know the total number of people the NSA had spied on. The Times did quote anonymous officials suggesting that the number of domestic targets "may have reached into the thousands since the program began," however.
The IG report finally gives us some hard numbers—though it only counts the phone lines and e-mail addresses targeted for collection, not individual human targets, which seems likely to be a somewhat smaller figure. The NSA intercepted communications to or from a total of 37,644 e-mail addresses and phone numbers over the life of the program. About eight percent of the total—3,018—were believed to belong to Americans. Of course, an American didn't need to be targeted to get sucked into the NSA's vacuum cleaner; any conversation between someone in the US and one of those 34,646 foreign e-mail accounts or phone lines would have been tapped as well.
For reasons not detailed in the report, spying on e-mail seems to have been far more popular for foreign than domestic targets. Only about 406 domestic e-mail accounts were flagged for interception, compared with 2,612 phone numbers. For foreigners, by contrast, e-mail accounts substantially outnumbered flagged phone numbers, 19,000 to 15,646.
Secrecy impeded effective oversight
Though ultimately more than 3,000 people—mostly within the NSA—were read into the program, the initial secrecy around it was so intense that, notoriously, even the NSA's own lawyers weren't allowed to see the legal reasoning justifying it until 2004—something NSA officials themselves found strange.
That secrecy meant that the NSA's own Inspector General—the agency's primary internal watchdog—wasn't cleared to know about the program until August 2002, nearly a year after it began. Even that appears to have been a reluctant concession; NSA Director Michael Hayden had to "make a case" to the White House for reading the IG in. As a result, it was not until February 2003 that the IG "learned of PSP incidents or violations that had not been reported to overseers as required, because none had the clearance to see the report." The precise nature of those "incidents or violations" remains unknown.


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Catalog No.S8913
Molecular Weight(MW): 541.18
TH5487 is a selective active-site inhibitor of 8-oxoguanine DNA glycosylase 1 (OGG1) with IC50 of 342 nM.
Cited by 1 publication
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Choose Selective OGG1 Inhibitors
Solubility (25°C)
|In vitro
|10 mg/mL (18.47 mM)
* Please note that Selleck tests the solubility of all compounds in-house, and the actual solubility may differ slightly from published values. This is normal and is due to slight batch-to-batch variations.
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|Molecular Weight
|CAS No.
|in solvent
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Calculate the mass, volume or concentration required for a solution. The Selleck molarity calculator is based on the following equation:
Mass (mg) = Concentration (mM) × Volume (mL) × Molecular Weight (g/mol)
*When preparing stock solutions, please always use the batch-specific molecular weight of the product found on the via label and MSDS / COA (available on product pages).
Dilution Calculator
Calculate the dilution required to prepare a stock solution. The Selleck dilution calculator is based on the following equation:
Concentration (start) x Volume (start) = Concentration (final) x Volume (final)
This equation is commonly abbreviated as: C1V1 = C2V2 ( Input Output )
* When preparing stock solutions always use the batch-specific molecular weight of the product found on the vial label and MSDS / COA (available online).
Molecular Weight Calculator
Enter the chemical formula of a compound to calculate its molar mass and elemental composition:
Tip: Chemical formula is case sensitive. C10H16N2O2 c10h16n2o2
Instructions to calculate molar mass (molecular weight) of a chemical compound:
To calculate molar mass of a chemical compound, please enter its chemical formula and click 'Calculate'.
Definitions of molecular mass, molecular weight, molar mass and molar weight:
Molecular mass (molecular weight) is the mass of one molecule of a substance and is expressed in the unified atomic mass units (u). (1 u is equal to 1/12 the mass of one atom of carbon-12)
Molar mass (molar weight) is the mass of one mole of a substance and is expressed in g/mol.
Molarity Calculator
Tech Support
Answers to questions you may have can be found in the inhibitor handling instructions. Topics include how to prepare stock solutions, how to store inhibitors, and issues that need special attention for cell-based assays and animal experiments.
Tel: +1-832-582-8158 Ext:3
If you have any other enquiries, please leave a message.


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With more than 600 courses, 47 majors and 59 minors you will find plenty of opportunities to discover how the arts and sciences, humanities and social sciences compliment each other.
Wheaton faculty are renowned researchers, celebrated scholars, and influential artists, and they are all dedicated to teaching excellence.
Need-based financial aid is awarded to more than 65% of Wheaton students and our generous merit scholarships recognize students for high academic achievement, regardless of financial need.
We understand a Wheaton College education is a substantial investment. But we want you to know the college is equally invested in making a Wheaton education within reach.
At Wheaton College you can find ways to do it all. Take your pick from more than 100 student-run clubs and organizations or start your own.
Most of our students live on campus, creating a lively social scene, and are actively engaged in student clubs and activities.
Wheaton is located in Norton, Massachusetts and enrolls approximately 1650 students representing more than 70 countries and 30 U.S. states.
Wheaton prides itself on a personal and engaged academic and co-curricular learning experience for our students.