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PALISSADE BAR STOOL / Story
Designed by French brothers Ronan and Erwan Bouroullec, Palissade is a collection of outdoor furniture for HAY in powder coated or hot galvanised steel. United by a common principle of symmetrical geometry, the Palissade collection is engineered to reproduce the same visual simplicity and core strength throughout. Designed in colour and form to integrate effortlessly into a natural landscape or urban setting, Palissade is intended to be used over a longer period of time and become more beautiful over the years. The collection is suited to a wide variety of environments, from cafés and restaurants to gardens, terraces and balconies.
Ronan & Erwan Bouroullec the Paris-based design brothers from Brittany have been working together since 1998. Ronan is a graduate of the École Supérieure des Arts Décoratifs in Paris and Erwan attended the École Nationale Supérieure des Arts in Cergy before starting their own studio.They have transformed the design industry and offered new perspectives of materiality and purpose. For HAY, they have designed the Palissade Collection, Copenhague Collection, Can Sofa, Élémentaire Chair, Passerelle Table and Pier System.


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This Award Winning Gourmet Coffee and Smoothie franchise is ranked as a top franchise in their category and one of America's Top Global Franchises by Entrepreneur Magazine. They are also ranked as one of the fastest growing private companies by INC Magazine's INC 500. They have also been featured on CNN, Bloomberg TV, the Wall Street Journal, USA Today and Nations Restaurant News. This franchise is the largest Coffee/Smoothie Franchise in the US. They offer a simple, profitable and flexible business model with low investment where you can start with one location and scale up to multiple locations. You build the business that fits your lifestyle. This is the perfect low-investment, low-risk business to build wealth while spending time with your family, traveling or pursuing your dreams.
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Today in the News: Supreme Court to toss affirmative action?
News to know
In hearing a case today that touches on affirmative action, the Supreme Court justices seemed to lean against the policy. Conservative justices and Anthony Kennedy, who generally is considered the swing vote on the court, appeared to agree that states can ban affirmative action.
Quote of note
"We still have a lot to cover." - Statement from Apple on invitations to an Oct. 22 event. Apple is expected to announce a new iPad and an upgraded iPad mini at the event.
Hot video: Raw: Ex-San Diego mayor pleads guilty
Former San Diego Mayor Bob Filner pleaded guilty to felony false imprisonment and two misdemeanor counts of battery. The plea came Tuesday, weeks after Filner was forced to resign over claims of sexual harassment by numerous women.
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For a champion cheese board
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105g Sweet Apple Chutney
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Cottage Delight The Deli Cheese Platter
We offer a 30 day FREE Return/Exchange policy. You can return most new, unopened items (Food and Drink items are not returnable) within 30 days of delivery for a full refund. We will also pay the return shipping costs if the return is a result of our error (You received an incorrect or defective item, etc.)
You should expect to receive your refund within 5-7 working days once we have received your item back.
If you need to return an item, please Contact us at firstname.lastname@example.com with your order number and details about the product you would like to return. We will respond quickly with instructions on how to return items from your order.
Our Standard delivery Service is 1 to 2 Working days and is priced at £5.95. So no matter how much you order it will be this price (except for Seeds and Large Bulky items).
All Seed only orders will be shipped 1st class Royal Mail and is priced at £1.99.
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Any items ordered along side Seeds will increase the cost to our standard shipping charge of £5.95.
Alternatively, if you live local, why not 'Click and Collect' or 'Local Delivery' (Local Delivery Fee is £5) from our store. Just select the option upon checking out.


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Get the Assorted Fruits Wallpaper in high quality design for your inspiration. You can download Assorted Fruits Wallpaper for free to your background desktop, PC, table, smartphone and other device. Maybe the Assorted Fruits Wallpaper can make inspiration for your project, please feel free to contact me. We give other resolution for this Assorted Fruits Wallpaper. You can find the best resolution for you want and look the related wallpaper for this Assorted Fruits Wallpaper. You can visit the source of Assorted Fruits Wallpaper in the Image Source below.
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VCA TLC Pasadena Veterinary Specialty and Emergency
What can we dig up for you?
VCA TLC Pasadena Veterinary Specialty and Emergency
VCA TLC Pasadena Veterinary Specialty and Emergency
VCA CareClub is an affordable, long-term wellness plan to protect your pet's health and help prevent illness and disease, no matter their age.
By offering you greater peace of mind, VCA CareClub allows you to focus on what really matters in your pet's life: their happiness.
Annual and semi-annual wellness exams track your pet's health over their lifetime. Unlimited anytime exams† are provided to give you peace of mind, so you can visit us if any health concerns arise.
Routine dental care and cleanings can prevent gum and dental issues that can lead to heart, liver and kidney disease.1
Included doctor-recommended vaccines help keep your pet protected from the health risks they encounter every day.
Routine lab work helps us identify and treat potential health concerns like diabetes, liver and kidney disease, parasites and infections before they become big worries.
Getting your pet spayed or neutered will help them avoid health risks later in life and prevent overpopulation.
VCA CareClub's convenient monthly payments are an affordable way to protect your pet's health year-round.
Insurance covers your dog for the unexpected. Our wellness plans cover routine treatments and check-ups that help keep your pet happy and healthy, no matter what their age.
Receive valuable rewards on select products and food your pet loves, 24/7 live chat with a veterinarian with the myVCA app, plus an annual HomeAgain® subscription to help find your pet if they get lost and more!


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Ask Marilyn: Can You Solve This Classic Hotel Room Riddle?
Mike Kosko in Bethlehem, Pennsylvania, writes:
Marilyn: Can you please provide the math equation that will solve this riddle? Three businessmen go to a hotel. The desk clerk tells them they can have a special rate: $30 for sharing a room for one night. They each take out $10, hand it to the clerk, and go to the room. The clerk then realizes he made a mistake. The special rate was $25 for the room. So he gives the bellman $5 in singles and tells him to take it up to the guests. The bellman needs money, so he keeps $2 for himself and gives each man $1, instead. In effect, each guest has paid $9 (his original $10 minus the $1 he got back). So they each paid $9, a total of $27 for the three, plus $2 the bellman put in his pocket. That equals $29. What happened to the other dollar?
Marilyn responds:
No math equation applies because the logic is incorrect. No dollar is missing. You added the amount the three men no longer have ($27) to the amount the bellman does have ($2), which doesn't make sense. That total ($29) happens to be close to the original price of the room ($30), which may mislead a reader into thinking the two numbers are related. But they are not.
You can easily account for the $30 by adding where the money is, not where it is not! The desk clerk has $25, the three men have $3 ($1 each), and the bellman has $2. 25 + $3 + $2 = $30.


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Season Stepp: Use baking soda, scrub brush to clean fruit, veggies
A few months ago, I received a letter from a reader in Hendersonville.
Ms. Pat asked me to address how to clean fruits and vegetables properly. She is concerned by the number of "poisons," including pesticides and herbicides, used on today's produce.
She should be concerned not only with the chemicals but also with other contaminants such as human and animal waste, dirty water and pollutants caused by improper hygiene.
When it comes to sterilizing produce, cleaning methods vary. I have read that some suggest actually using an unscented soap to wash fruits and vegetables.
Personally, I disagree with the concept of adding more man-made chemicals to remove other man-made chemicals. Instead, I prefer a good, old-fashioned home remedy used for many types of cleaning: baking soda and vinegar. Baking soda is a natural element, bicarbonate of soda, and is sometimes found in mineral form dissolved in mineral springs. It is inexpensive and can be found in most pantries. Baking soda is a biopesticide, which inhibits the growth of certain bacteria, fungi and viruses.
Baking soda is a very mild abrasive. When baking soda is applied to a damp apple, your fingers can then do the work to remove waxy buildup, germs and other not-so-tasty substances. Baking soda also works for most other fruits and vegetables that do not require peeling such as zucchini and tomatoes.
A good scrub brush can also be a cook's best friend. When it comes to carrots, potatoes and sweet potatoes, I rarely pull out the vegetable peeler. Instead, I scrub them well under cold water. The peelings of many fruits and veggies contain fiber and other nutrients, as well as flavor, so I choose not to discard the peels.
Over the past few years, "prewashed" leafy greens have been one of the leading causes of food-borne illnesses in the United States. When I teach classes at Charleston Cooks in Greenville, I often teach participants to wash all produce, including those that claim to have been washed already or even triple washed.
When it comes to salad greens, cooking greens and even large amounts of herbs, I use a handy device called a salad spinner. The device consists of a bowl with a basket insert and a top that spins the basket. Usually people just rinse the greens and spin them dry. I prefer to fill the whole bowl and basket full of produce with water, give it a few shakes, then remove the basket from the water. Drain the bowl, replace the basket and spin away.
By submerging your greens in water, any dirt, sand, etc. will settle to the bottom, and the basket can be lifted away, leaving the icky stuff to be discarded. As an extra precaution, a few tablespoons of vinegar can be added to the rinsing water to further inhibit bacterial growth.
An even better option than any I have explained so far is to grow your own produce. When I pick tomatoes, carrots, eggplant, etc., from my garden, I know that no pesticides, herbicides or contaminated water has been used on my goodies.
Once picked, I usually just give them a quick rinse to remove any tiny bugs or clinging dirt, but I have been known to simply brush off a freshly-picked carrot and eat it right in the garden (a little grit hasn't hurt me yet). I encourage you to grow your grub, use organic material for fertilizer and let nature do the rest.
Thanks again to Ms. Pat for her great question.
For any other cooking or vegetable gardening-related questions, please email me at email@example.com. I would love to hear from all of you.


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Dr. Jeff Hersh: Child born without an ear canal
Q: My sister told me my nephew was born without an ear canal. Please tell me about this condition.
A: The outer part of the ear helps channel sound waves into the ear canal. Sound waves then hit the eardrum (part of the inner ear) causing it to move. All this is considered the "conductive" part of hearing.
This eardrum motion is subsequently sensed by cells in the inner ear, stimulating electric signals. These signals are then transferred to an area of the brain where they are processed and interpreted. All this is considered the "sensory" aspect of hearing.
The ear canal begins in the outer part of the ear, where it is surrounded by cartilage, and continues deeper to the inner ear where it is surrounded by bone. The development of the ear canal occurs during the fifth and six months of gestation.
Aural atresia (also called external auditory canal atresia) is a rare congenital disorder (1 in 10,000 children are born with it) where the ear canal does not develop normally. Three-quarters of the time this is only on one side; the remaining 25 percent of cases have bilateral aural atresia. For some patients, the ear canal is simply abnormally narrow; others have a complete lack of canalization. A CT scan can help characterize the extent the canal is compromised.
Fetal exposure to toxins, infections and/or trauma as well as low birth weight are known risk factors for aural atresia. There may also be a hereditary component, and some cases are associated with other congenital conditions. However, in most cases the cause of aural atresia is not known.
Aural atresia is typically identified during the newborn physical exam. Since other organs, such as the heart, kidneys and eyes, develop at about the same time as the ears, a detailed evaluation of children with aural atresia is indicated. Occasionally, more subtle cases of aural atresia are not identified until later in childhood.
As would be expected, the lack of an ear canal will compromise conductive hearing. The amount of the hearing compromise depends on how severely the ear canal is affected, as well as if the atresia is in one or both ears. Since hearing is necessary for normal language development, early identification of any hearing defect is vital.
Some patients with aural atresia also have parts of their inner ear affected. In these patients the sensory aspect of hearing will be affected in addition to the conductive aspects.
Most patients with aural atresia have abnormal development of their external ear. This may cause cosmetic concerns and possibly social issues for the child. The extent of the abnormal external abnormalities is very variable from patient to patient.
Since language development is so important early in life, hearing testing for children with aural atresia is extremely important; auditory brainstem response audiometry is used to test hearing in infants. If hearing is significantly compromised, a hearing aid, such as a bone-anchored hearing device, is indicated. The child's speech development will need to be closely followed.
Otitis media (colloquially called an ear infection) is common in children, and kids with aural atresia can develop these infections as well. Otitis media is usually diagnosed by identifying a fluid buildup behind the eardrum; this cannot be done in children with aural atresia since the ear canal compromise prevents direct visualization of the eardrum. Therefore, pediatricians caring for patients with aural atresia should maintain a high index of suspicion of an ear infection, and they should treat these kids with antibiotics if one is suspected.
Children with aural atresia should be cared for by a cross functional team including a pediatrician, a hearing specialist, a speech pathologist, a social worker, a psychological counselor and an ENT surgeon who specializes in ear surgeries; if cosmetic surgery is needed (this depends on the extent of the abnormality of the patient's external ear), a plastic surgeon should also be included on this team. The goals of therapy include ensuring adequate language development and maximizing hearing. Surgery is usually required for kids with bilateral aural atresia, and is also beneficial in certain kids with unilateral disease; surgery is usually done after age six.
Jeff Hersh, Ph.D., M.D., can be reached at email@example.com.


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Valrico, FL
Michael C Dickerson DMD Holdings PLLC
1814 E. State Rd 60
Valrico, FL 33594
Valrico, FL
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Tap on each step below to learn more.
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We do anything to make it easy for you to pay, including providing quick, easy and honest financing options. 4 out of 5 applicants get approved from our third-party lenders. Talk to our office manager to learn more.
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Below are many of the insurance plans that our practices accept. Aspen Dental practices do not accept Medicaid. If you do not see your insurance plan listed, there may be alternate solutions available including special offers and financing to get the care you need. Learn more here.
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Carmelo Anthony, 3 others ejected as Bulls beat Knicks
- Chicago Bulls beat New York Knicks 110-106 Friday night
- Knicks stars Carmelo Anthony, Tyson Chandler, coach Mike Woodson, Bulls star Joakim Noah ejected
- Luol Deng had season highs of 29 points, 13 rebounds for Bulls despite injuring shoulder
NEW YORK (AP) — Bottled up by the Bulls and baffled by the officials, Carmelo Anthony expected to spend the final minutes of the Knicks' loss alone in the locker room.
Turns out the early exodus of Knicks was just beginning.
Coach Mike Woodson and center Tyson Chandler were also ejected from the foul-filled game, and Chicago beat New York for the second time this season, 110-106 Friday night.
Chandler and Bulls counterpart Joakim Noah were tossed after a fourth-quarter altercation, shortly after Woodson had been ejected following his second technical. He drew a loud ovation during his walk to the back from Knicks fans who angrily booed the officiating for much of the second half.
"I was actually in here, and then I just heard the crowd screaming and yelling, and I walked to the hallway, and Woody was walking back. Then I was actually in the shower, came back and Tyson was sitting right next to me," Anthony said. "So once I saw that, that's how the night was going."
Luol Deng had season highs of 29 points and 13 rebounds for the Bulls despite briefly leaving the game with an injured left shoulder. Marco Belinelli added 22 points as Chicago won for the fourth time in five games.
Anthony finished with 29 points on 10-of-25 shooting, ending his streak of four consecutive 30-point games. The Knicks lost for the second time in three home games after winning their first 10.
Noah finished with 15 points, 12 rebounds and six assists in completely outplaying Chandler, who took only one shot and was limited to five points and eight boards.
Chandler insisted he and Noah didn't fight and shouldn't have been ejected from the game that featured nine technicals.
"It was just an ugly game in general and then things contributed from there," Chandler said.
Kirk Hinrich had 16 points, nine rebounds and eight assists for the Bulls, who were totally shutting the Knicks down until allowing 45 mostly meaningless points in the fourth quarter after Chicago had led by 25 in the third.
"You get a 25-point lead on the road against a team like this, you're doing a lot of good things," Chicago coach Tom Thibodeau said. "I'm disappointed with our approach and discipline in the fourth quarter, starting with my fourth-quarter technical. So we gave up 45 points and that's not good. That's not the way we want to close a game."
The Knicks were held to season lows of 85 points and 32.1% shooting in an eight-point loss in Chicago on Dec. 8, when Anthony was sidelined by a cut on his finger that required stitches. Woodson said before the game he thought the Knicks got good shots that night and just missed them, expecting his team would deliver a better performance at home with Anthony in the lineup.
Instead, the Knicks were never really in the game on a rare off night from Anthony, the NBA's second-leading scorer. The score got close in the final minutes, but the outcome had long been decided.
Anthony was called for his second technical, earning an automatic ejection, with 6:45 left after he was whistled for a foul on Noah's offensive rebound and apparently said something to referee Olandis Poole.
Once the game got away from the Knicks, so did their emotions, questioning calls that were made or arguing for ones that weren't. Chandler and Noah were battling for a rebound when they got tangled up and began jawing, and may have even made contact with their heads before they were separated.
"(Things) were definitely escalating, but I don't think they're used to being down that much, too," Noah said. "If they were up 20 points, I don't think they would have been that frustrated."
The fans weren't happy, either. Spike Lee stood a couple of feet behind referee Zach Zarba from his courtside seat in the fourth quarter, staring a hole through Zarba after one call went against the Knicks.
The Knicks had much bigger problems than the officiating.
They missed 10 of their first 11 shots as Chicago raced to a 14-2 lead. The advantage grew to 30-17 when Deng made a three-pointer, and Belinelli followed with a free throw after Anthony was called for a technical foul after arguing a no-call on the other end. New York got it down to 30-23 when J.R. Smith made a three-pointer at the first-quarter buzzer.
"I think from the jump they were the more physical team from the beginning of the game and it carried out throughout the whole game. It kind of got to us a little bit," Anthony said. "We reacted rather than coming out from the jump being the more aggressive team and we found ourselves in a hole, and by the time we tried to be aggressive it was a little bit too late at that point in time."
The Knicks cut it to 42-37 midway through the second quarter before their offense stalled again. Chicago scored 12 consecutive points, taking its biggest lead at 54-37 on a free throw by Carlos Boozer with 10.9 seconds remaining, before Anthony stopped the Knicks' 5-minute scoreless drought with a driving layup with 3.2 seconds to go.
Smith had 26 points and 10 rebounds for the Knicks, who fell to 19-7. Their 19 wins through 25 games was bettered only twice in franchise history, when they were 23-2 in 1969-70 and 20-5 in 1972-73. They won the NBA title both times.
Deng appeared to hurt his left shoulder in the third quarter when Jason Kidd reached in on him, but returned to the game after using a heating pad on the bench.
Notes: With Amare Stoudemire getting close to returning from left knee surgery, Woodson said he will talk to the forward Saturday about how he is feeling. Stoudemire practiced twice this week with the Knicks' NBA Development League team so he could scrimmage, since the Knicks weren't holding full-court practices. Woodson said he wasn't sure if Stoudemire would be able to play Sunday. … The Bulls are 6-1 against the Atlantic Division. … Former Rutgers football player Eric LeGrand was at the game and received a long, loud ovation when a segment about his paralysis was shown on the video board.


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Please cite as: Hughes, Barry B., and José R. Solórzano. 2014. "IFs Governance and Socio-Cultural Model Documentation ." Working paper 2014.03.05.a. Pardee Center for International Futures, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, Denver, CO. Accessed DD Month YYYY <https://pardee.du.edu/wiki/Socio-Political>
A substantial portion of the socio-political model of IFs is scattered throughout the other models. There are "policy handles" or intervention points throughout those models. For instance, in the population model, multipliers on the total fertility rate can reflect policy decisions (although they can also reflect the model user's judgment concerning social changes in the country or region, independent of policy). Patterns of regulation, subsidy, tax incidence, and provision of state services are so diffuse and complicated that we resort to looking at their aggregate consequences through various "policy handles" rather than trying to represent them explicitly.
For more information on this module, please use the links below or read more at Socio-Political Equations Overview.
Structure and Agent System: Socio-Political
Organizing Structure
Social fabric
Levels of human well-being and institutional development (human and social capital)
Cultural structures
Social expenditures
Value change
Key Aggregate Relationships
(illustrative, not comprehensive)
Growth in literacy and human development;
Democratic development, state failure
Key Agent-Class Behavior Relationships
(illustrative, not comprehensive)
Government efforts to develop human capital through spending on health, education, R&D
Unlike the use of cohort-component structures in demographics and of markets and social accounting matrices for economics, there is no standard organizing structure that is widely used for representing socio-political systems. In the context of the TERRA project, IFs developed a multi-component approach to structure that might be called the "social fabric" (a la Robert Pestel).
Although representation of agent-class behavior would be of special interest in a socio-political module, most relationships in IFs remain at the level of aggregate specifications.
Dominant Relations: Socio-political
Domestic Socio-Political Change: Dominant Relations
Social and political change occurs on three dimensions (social characteristics or individual life conditions, values, socio-political institutions and process). Although GDP per capita is strongly correlated with all dimensions of change, it might be more appropriate to conceptualize a syndrome or complex of developmental change than to portray an economically-driven process.[1]
For causal diagram see Socio-Political Flow Charts Overview.
For equations see, for example, Socio-Political Equations Overview.
Key dynamics are directly linked to the dominant relations
- The model computes some key social characteristics/life conditions, including life expectancy and fertility rates in the demographic model, but the user can affect them via multipliers (mortm, tfrm). Literacy rate is an endogenous function of education spending, which the user can influence (via gdsm).
- The model computes value or cultural change on three dimensions: traditional versus secular-rational, survival versus self-expression, and modernism versus postmodernism, which the user can affect via additive factors (tradsrateadd, survseadd, matpostradd).
- Freedom, democracy (the POLITY measure), autocracy, economic freedom, and the status of women are all computed endogenously but can all be shifted by the user via multipliers (freedomm, democm, autocm, econfreem, gemm)
Domestic Socio-Political Change: Selected Added Value
The larger socio-political model provides representation and control over government spending on education, health, the military, R&D, foreign aid, and a residual category. Military spending is linked to interstate politics, both as a driver of threat and as a result of action-and-reaction based arms spending. The sub-model provides aggregated indicators of the physical quality of life and the human development index.
Socio-political Flow Charts
The social and political module represents a complex of interacting structures and processes. These include:
- The various social characteristics or life conditions of individuals
- Human values, beliefs, and orientations'
- Social and political structures, informal as well as formal
- Social and political processes, both domestic and international
Cultural foundations frame all of these components. And all of the components interact closely with human demographic and economic systems.
The socio-political elements of IFs are among the most dynamically evolving aspects of the overall modeling system. Much, but not everything in the above figure has been fully represented yet within IFs; the figure indicates direction of development and shows implemented elements in italics.
For more, please read the links below.
Social Characteristics: Life Conditions
Individuals are the foundations of society. Many social indicators are actually aggregated indicators of their condition. The Human Development Index (HDI) is a widely-used summary measure of that life condition, based on life expectancy, educational attainment, and GDP per capita.
Physical Quality of Life (PQLI)
The Overseas Development Council (then under the leadership of Jim Grant) developed and publicized a measure of (physical) quality of life (the PQLI) many years ago. It combines literarcy rate, infant mortality rate, and life expectancy, using scales from the lowest to the highest values in the global system. It weights the three scales equally. The literacy rate is, in turn, a function of the per capita spending levels on education, estimated cross-sectionally. In many respects the PQLI was a predecessor of the human development index (HDI).
Based on country/region-specific Physical Quality of Life, it is possible to compute world quality of life (WPQLI) and the North-South gap in quality of life (NSPQLI). Given country-specific literacy rates, it is also possible to compute world literacy (WLIT).
Income Distribution
Income distribution is represented by the share of national income earned by the poorest 20 percent of the population. That share is obtained from data whenever possible, but is estimated from a cross-sectional relationship when necessary and changed over time by that relationship (the values tend, however, to be very stable both in the real world and in the model). Because initial conditions of variables affected by income share, such as fertility and mortality rates, already reflect existing income distributions, it is only the changes in that distribution relative to the expected value that the model uses in such relationships. A parameter (incshrm) is available to change income share and thus affect those variables influenced by it.
Social Characteristics: Networking
Being electronically networked is an increasingly important aspect of human life condition. The number of networked persons (NUMNWP) is a function primarily of the growth rate in that number (NUMNWPGR). It is ultimately constrained, however, by the size of the population and by the number of connections and organizational memberships that people can have (numnwplim). The growth in networked person number slows as it approaches the ultimate limit. The model user can affect the growth pattern via a multiplier on the growth rate (numnwpgrm).
This approach was added to IFs during the TERRA project and draws on the thinking of Tom Tesch and Pol Descamps.
Social Values and Cultural Evolution
IFs computes change in three cultural dimensions identified by the World Values Survey (Inglehart 1997). Those are dimensions of materialism/post-materialism, survival/self-expression, and traditional/secular-rational values.
Inglehart has identified large cultural regions that have substantially different patterns on these value dimensions and IFs represents those regions, using them to compute shifts in value patterns specific to them.
Levels on the three cultural dimensions are predicted not only for the country/regional populations as a whole, but in each of 6 age cohorts. Not shown in the flow chart is the option, controlled by the parameter "wvsagesw," of computing country/region change over time in the three dimensions by functions for each cohort (value of wvsagesw = 1) or by computing change only in the first cohort and then advancting that through time (value of wvsagesw = 2).
The model uses country-specific data from the World Values Survey project to compute a variety of parameters in the first year by cultural region (English-speaking, Orthodox, Islamic, etc.). The key parameters for the model user are the three country/region-specific additive factors on each value/cultural dimension (matpostradd, etc.).
Finally, the model contains data on the size (percentage of population) of the two largest ethnic/cultural groupings. At this point these parameters have no forward linkages to other variables in the model.
Social Organization and Change
The sociopolitical module computes change in freedom (political and economic) and the status of women. For freedom it uses both the measure of the Freedom House and the combined measure for democracy (building on democracy and autocracy) of the POLITY project. It also computes a measure of economic freedom and of gender equality.
Social Organization: Stability/State Failure
The State Failure project has analyzed the propensity for different types of state failures within countries, including those associated with revolution, ethnic conflict, genocide-politicide, and abrupt regime change (using categories and data pioneered by Ted Robert Gurr. Upon the advice of Gurr, IFs groups the first three as internal war and the last as political instability.
IFs uses the same primary variables (infant mortality, democracy, and trade openness) as the State Failure project to drive forecasts of the probability of individual events of state failure, of ongoing episodes of it, and of the magnitude of episodes. In addition, it allows the use in the formulation of GDP per capita and years of education. Many other linkages have been and can be explored, including cultural regions.
Government Spending
The economic submodel provides total government spending. Government spending by category begins as a simple product of total government consumption and fractional shares by spending category.
Spending by type (military, health, education, research and development, other, and foreign aid) is largely specified exogenously, building on the initial conditions for each country/region. In addition, an action-reaction (arms-race) dynamic can be established in military spending if the action-reaction switch is turned on. After adjustments to foreign aid and military spending, spending in all categories is re-normalized to equal total governmental spending.
Educational spending is further broken out of total educational spending. The user can shift the spending across three educational levels (primary, secondary, and tertiary) through the use of an educational multiplier.
See also the specifications of detailed final demand and of international finance.
Drug Demand
The UNODC drug report finds that illicit drug use is concentrated amongst the youth, notably young males living in an urban environment. The UNODC report also finds a pronounced gender gap in relation to illicit drug consumption. Gender equality and empowerment seems to act as a key driver when it comes to determining drug consumption. For example, in the United States, characterized by a small gender gap, female drug use is about two thirds that of males, whereas in some other countries, including India and Indonesia, female drug use is as low as one tenth that of males, though there is a risk that female drug use may be underreported.
In addition, we have also found poverty, inequality and government health expenditure as drivers of specific types of drug prevalence. Policy options with respect to drug prevalence are represented in the model using multipliers which can be used to simulate an increase or decrease in drug prevalence. The table below lists the driving variables for each of the drug types.
|Drug Type
|Driving Variables
|Driving Variables in IFS
|Youth Bulge, Gender Inequalities
|Consumption levels, Gender Empowerment Measure and Income Inequality
|Poverty, Youth Bulge and Urban Population
|Prescription Opiods
|Health Expenditure
The figure below shows a diagrammatic representation of the drug demand model in IFs,
Mortality from conflict is driven using the probability of internal war (SFINTLWARALL). Mortality from homicides and violence against women and children are driven using the youthbulge (YTHBULGE) and the GINI co-efficient (GINIDOM). Police violence deaths are driven by homicides(SVDTHSOTHERINTERPERSON) and the Corruption index in IFs (GOVCORRUPT). Finally, mortality from self-harm is calculated using mental health deaths (which are calculated in the health model) and deaths of women and children (SVDTHSWOMENANDCHILDREN). There are user controllable parameters available in the model to increase the death rates (svmulm) and the total number of deaths (svdthsadd) for each of the categories of violence. Finally, the homicide index(HOMICIDEINDEX) is calculated using each of the death rates mentioned above excluding self-harm. The homicide index itself is used in computing a conflict component of the security index in IFs (GOVINDSECUR).
The figure below shows a visual representation of the violence model in IFs.
Socio-political Equations
A substantial portion of the policy model of IFs is scattered throughout the other models. There are "policy handles" or intervention points throughout those models. For instance, in the population model, multipliers on the total fertility rate can reflect policy decisions (although they can also reflect the model user's judgment concerning social changes in the country or region, independent of policy). Similarly, in the energy model, the multiplier on energy demand can represent conservation policy. Similarly, the ultimate energy resource base and the rate of resource discovery remain uncertain in part because they are subject to a wide range of government interventions - multipliers can introduce assumptions about such interventions. In the economic module, the level of trade protection is very clearly a policy parameter as is the multiplier on the tax rate. Patterns of regulation, subsidy, tax incidence, and provision of state services are so diffuse and complicated that we resort to looking at their aggregate consequences through various "policy handles" rather than trying to represent them explicitly.
IFs contains other categories of sociol-political activity, however, that it represents in more integrated fashion in the sociopolitical module as a four-dimensional social fabric: social characteristics/life condition, values, social structures (formal and informal), and social processes.
For help understanding the equations see Notation.
Socio-political Equations: Life Conditions
Literacy changes from the initial level for the region because of a multiplier (LITM).
The function upon which the literacy multiplier is based represents the cross sectional relationship globally between educational expenditures per capita (EDEX) from the government submodel and literacy rate (LIT). Rather than imposing the typical literacy rate on a region (and thereby being inconsistent with initial empirical values), the literacy multiplier is the ratio of typical literacy at current expenditure levels to the normal literacy level at initial expenditure levels. This formulation predates the development of an educational module that calculates the numbers of those with a primary education (one common definition of literacy). As that module is refined, we will likely derive literacy dynamics from it.
Educational expenditures (and thus implicitly literacy and labor efficiency) are tied back to the economic model via the economic production function.
Given life expectancy, literacy, and infant mortality levels from the mortality distribution, it is possible to compute the Physical Quality of Life Index (PQLI) that the Overseas Development Council developed (ODC, 1977: 147#154). This measure averages the three quality of life indicators, first normalizing each indicator so that it ranges from zero to 100. The normaliza"tion is not needed for literacy; for life expectancy it converts the range of approximately 28 (LIFEXPMIN) to 80 (LIFEXPMAX) years into 0 to 100; for infant mortality it converts the range of approximately 229 per thousand (INFMORMAX) to 9 per thousand (INFMORMIN) into 0 to 100.
For most users, the United Nations Development Program's human development index (HDI) has replaced the PQLI as an integrated measure of life condition. It is a simple average of three sub-indices for life expectancy, education, and GDP per capita (using purchasing power parity). The life expectancy sub-index is the same as was used for the PQLI. The literacy sub-index is again the literacy rate. The GDP per capita index is a logged form that runs from a minimum of 100 to a maximum of $40,000 per capita. The measure in IFs differs slightly from the HDI version, because it does not put educational enrollment rates into a broader educational index with literacy; that will be changed as the educational model of IFs is better tested.
Although the HDI is a wonderful measure for looking at past and current life conditions, it has some limitations when looking at the longer-term future. Specifically, the fixed upper limits for life expectancy and GDP per capita are likely to be exceeded by many countries before the end of the 21st century. IFs has therefore introduced a floating version of the HDI, in which the maximums for those two index components are calculated from the maximum performance of any state in the system in each forecast year.
The floating measure, in turn, has some limitations because it introduces relative attainment into the equation rather than absolute attainment. IFs therefore uses still a third version of the HDI, one that allows the users to specify probable upper limits for life expectancy and GDPPC in the twenty-first century. Those enter into a fixed calculation of which the normal HDI could be considered a special case.
It is useful to compute several additional global indicators, a world physical quality of life index (WPQLI), a world life expectancy (WLIFE), a world literacy rate (WLIT), and a North#South gap index or ratio of quality of life in the "developed -D" regions to the "less developed-L" regions (NSPQLI).
Socio-political Equations: Income Distribution
The income share of the poorest 20 percent of the population (INCSHR) depends on the GDP per capita at PPP (GDPPCP) and on an exogenous income share multiplier (incshrm).
The introduction of different household types into the social accounting matrix structure of IFs made possible the computation of a more sophisticated measure of income distribution tied directly to the model's computation of household income (HHINC) and household size (HHPOP) by type. A domestic Gini value (GINIDOM) is calculated from a function that uses the normal Lorenz curve foundation for Gini indices. Because that function can calculate values that are quite different from the empirical initial values, a ratio of the empirical value to the initial computed value (GINIDOMRI) is used for scaling purposes. The model's formulation of the relative household income levels of different household types, and therefore the calculation of a domestic GINI based on those income levels, are in early versions and are still rather crude.
One value of a domestic Gini calculation is that it, in turn, makes possible the calculation of the percentage of population living on less than one dollar per day (INCOMELT1) or two dollars per day (INCOMELT2). Functions were estimated linking GDP per capita at purchasing power (GDPPCP) and the Gini index to those percentages. Again, IFs uses initial conditions for scaling purposes.
IFs also calculates a global Gini index across all countries/regions in the model, again using the standard Lorenz curve approach to areas of inequality and equality. It does not yet take into account intra-regional income differentials, but the foundation is now in place to do so.
The user interface of IFs now uses the same Lorenz-curve approach to allow the user to calculate a specialized-display GINI for any variable that can be represented across all countries/regions of the model.
Social Equations Networking
The focal point of this portion of the model is on the computation of the total number of networked persons (NUMNWP). The rate of growth in that number (NUMNWPGR) is subject to several forces. The initial value of that rate is set in the data preprocessor of the model from empirical data. When no data are available for a country or region, the rate is set at a level determined via a cross-sectional relationship between GDP per capita (PPP) and portion of population networked.
Over time the growth rate of networked persons is subject to a saturating function, as the actual number of networked persons approaches a limit. The limit is set by an exogenous multiplier (numnwplim) on total population; networked persons can exceed total population because of multiple affiliations of individuals (households, NGOs, companies). The user of the model can accelerate or de-accelerate the process of networking via a multiplier on the growth rate (numnwpgrm).
Although of interest in its own right, the number of networked persons is also carried forward in the model to the production function of the economy.
Socio-political Equations: Values
IFs computes change in three cultural dimensions identified by the World Values Survey (Inglehart 1997). Those are dimensions of materialism/post-materialism (MATPOSTR), survival/self-expression (SURVSE), and traditional/secular-rational values (TRADSRAT). On each dimension the process for calculation is somewhat more complicated than for freedom or gender empowerment, however, because the dynamics for change in the cultural dimensions involves the aging of population cohorts. IFs uses the six population cohorts of the World Values Survey (1= 18-24; 2=25-34; 3=35-44; 4=45-54; 5=55-64; 6=65+). It calculates change in the value orientation of the youngest cohort (c=1) from change in GDP per capita at PPP (GDPPCP), but then maintains that value orientation for the cohort and all others as they age. Analysis of different functional forms led to use of an exponential form with GDP per capita for materialism/postmaterialism and to use of logarithmic forms for the two other cultural dimensions (both of which can take on negative values).
The user can influence values on each of the cultural dimensions via two parameters. The first is a cultural shift factor (e.g. CultSHMP) that affects all of the IFs countries/regions in a given cultural region as defined by the World Value Survey. Those factors have initial values assigned to them from empirical analysis of how the regions differ on the cultural dimensions (determined by the pre-processor of raw country data in IFs), but the user can change those further, as desired. The second parameter is an additive factor specific to individual IFs countries/regions (e.g. matpostradd). The default values for the additive factors are zero.
Some users of IFs may not wish to assume that aging cohorts carry their value orientations forward in time, but rather want to compute the cultural orientation of cohorts directly from cross-sectional relationships. Those relationships have been calculated for each cohort to make such an approach possible. The parameter (wvsagesw) controls the dynamics associated with the value orientation of cohorts in the model. The standard value for it is 2, which results in the "aging" of value orientations. Any other value for wvsagesw (the WVS aging switch) will result in use of the cohort-specific functions with GDP per capita.
Regardless of which approach to value-change dynamics is used, IFs calculates the value orientation for a total region/country as a population cohort-weighted average.
IFs uses an approach that is similar to the one for literacy in order to estimate the future of another measure created by the United Nations Development Program, one called the Gender Equity Measure (GEM). The closer the values of that measure approach "1", the closer women are to men in political and social power.
Socio-political Equations: Structures or Institutions
IFs endogenizes level of freedom (FREEDOM), based on the Freedom House measures, by linking change from initial conditions to GDP per capita at purchasing power parity in an analytic function. For discussion of the relationship between GDP and democracy, see Londregran and Poole (1996) and Przeworski and Limongi (1997). The latter view it as a probabilistic relationship in which there are a variety of reasons (often external pressure) at all levels of economic development for the conversion of dictatorships to democracies and in which the conversion of democracies to dictatorships occurs commonly at low but not high levels of development. That pattern creates a positive correlation between economic development and democratic government. A multiplier in freedom level (freedomm) increases or decreases the level of freedom.
The Economic Freedom Institute (with leadership from the Fraser Institute; see Gwartney and Lawson with Samida, 2000) have also introduced a measure of economic freedom. IFs represents that in similar fashion.
The POLITY project provides an alternative to the freedom house measure of freedom or democracy level. In fact, it provides multiple variables related to political system. IFs EARLIER included formations of two of those, democracy (DEMOC) and autocracy (AUTOC). They worked in completely analogous fashion.
More recently, IFs has (1) combined the two Polity project measures into a single one as is often done with the Polity measures, setting POLITYDEMOC equal to democracy – autocracy + 10, a measure that runs from 0 to 20; (2) introduced a more complicated, multi-level forecast for the new measure.
Specifically, the project identified three levels of analysis for factors that affect democratic change: domestic, regional, and systemic. At each of the three levels there are multiple factors that can affect democracy within states. At the domestic level we can identify two categories of factors in particular:
- GDP per capita. This variable correlates highly with almost all measures of social condition; GDP provides the resources for democratization and other social change.
- values/culture. Values clearly do differ across countries and regions of the world and almost certainly affect propensity to democratize.
At the regional level (or, more accurately, the "swing-states" level) we can also identify three prospective drivers:
- world average effects. It is possible that the world average exerts a pull-effect on states around the world (for instance, increasingly globalization could lead to homogenization of a wide variety of social structures around the world).
- swing states effects. Some states within regions quite probably affect/lead others (obviously the former Soviet Union was a prime example of such a swing state within its sphere of influence, but there is reason to believe in lesser and less coercive effects elsewhere).
- regional average. States within a region possibly affect each other more generally, such that "swing states" are moved by regional patterns and not simply movers of them.
At the system level we identify three:
- systemic leadership impetus. It is often suggested that the United States and other developed countries can affect democratization in less developed countries, either positively or negatively
- snowballing of democracy (Huntington 1991). The wave character of democratization suggests that there may be an internal dynamic, a self-reinforcing positive feedback loop, of the process globally, partially independent of other forces that act on the process. Such a conclusion is consistent with the fact that idea spread and global regime development influence many types of social change (Hughes 2001)
- miscellaneous other forces. Historic analysis would identify world war, economic depression, and other factors to explain the global pattern of democratization, especially the surge or retreat of waves.
A project document prepared for the CIA's Strategic Assessment Group (SAG) analyzed historic data and, in cooperation with David Epstein and Larry Diamond, fit an approach to it that cut across these three levels (see Hughes 2002: 59-74 for elaboration and documentation of the empirical work). The empirical work is not documented again here. The work did not find significant and consistent regional level effects, however, and the regional variables are therefore normally turned off.
The resulting formulation uses the domestic level as an initial base calculation because it is the empirically strongest piece, and later adds (optionally) the regional level effects and the systemic effects. The base calculation is further tied to the actual empirical levels in the initial year of the run, with the impact of the driving variables being felt only in change of those levels. An 'expected" democracy level (DEMOCEXP) is computed using an analytic function that uses GDP per capita at purchasing power parity (GDPPCP) and the World Value Survey's survival and self-expression dimension (SURVSE). These were found quite powerful in their level of correlation with democracy and the WVS dimension, interestingly, carries a cultural component into the formulation. The user can further modify this basic formulation with an exogenous multiplier (democm).
It is also useful to have a separate calculation of the empirically strongest piece of the formulation, namely the domestic effects, but without any adjustment to the initial empirical values. The expected democracy variable (DEMOCEXP) carries that. It can be compared with the fully computed values to see the degree to which there may be tension in countries between democracy levels that GDP per capita and values would predict, on the one hand, and those that are in the initial data. The greatest tension levels tend to be in the Middle Eastern countries, where decmocracy is considerably below "expected" levels.
The initial conditions of democracy in countries carry a considerable amount of idiosyncratic, country-specific influence, much of which can be expected to erode over time. Therefore a revised base level is computed that converges over time from the base component with the empirical initial condition built in to the value expected purely on the base of the analytic formulation. The user can control the rate of convergence with a parameter that specifies the years over which convergence occurs (polconv) and, in fact, basically shut off convergence by sitting the years very high.
- if
- then
On top of the country-specific calculation sits the (optional) regional or swing state effect calculation (SwingEffects), turned on by setting the swing states parameter (swseffects) to 1. The swing effects term has three components. The first is a world effect, whereby the democracy level in any given state (the "swingee") is affected by the world average level, with a parameter of impact (swingstdem) and a time adjustment (timeadj) . The second is a regionally powerful state factor, the regional "swinger" effect, with similar parameters. The third is a swing effect based on the average level of democracy in the region (RgDemoc).
David Epstein of Columbia University did extensive estimation of the parameters (the adjustment parameter on each term is 0.2). Unfortunately, the levels of significance were inconsistent across swing states and regions. Moreover, the term with the largest impact is the global term, already represented somewhat redundantly in the democracy wave effects. Hence, these swing effects are normally turned off and are available for optional use.
Also on top of the country-level effects sits the effect of global waves (DemGlobalEffects). Those depend on the amplitude of waves (DEMOCWAVE) relative to their initial condition and on a multiplier (EffectMul) that translates the amplitude into effects on states in the system. Because democracy and democratic wave literature often suggests that the countries in the middle of the democracy range are most susceptible to movements in the level of democracy, the analytic function enhances the affect in the middle range and dampens it at the high and low ends.
The democratic wave amplitude is a level that shifts over time (DemocWaveShift) with a normal maximum amplitude (democwvmax) and wave length (democwvlen), both specified exogenously, with the wave shift controlled by a endogenous parameter of wave direction that shifts with the wave length (DEMOCWVDIR). The normal wave amplitude can be affected also by impetus towards or away from democracy by a systemic leader (DemocImpLead), assumed to be the exogenously specified impetus from the United States (democimpus) compared to the normal impetus level from the U.S. (democimpusn) and the net impetus from other countries/forces (democimpoth).
Given both the global and regional/swing-state effects, it is possible to add these to the basic country calculation for the final computation of the level of democracy using the Polity scale. The size of the swing effects is constrained by an external parameter (swseffmax).
Socio-political Equations: Stability/State Failure
The State Failure project has analyzed the propensity for different types of state failures within countries, including those associated with revolution, ethnic conflict, genocide-politicide, and abrupt regime change (using categories and data pioneered by Ted Robert Gurr. Upon the advice of Gurr, IFs groups the first three as internal war and the last as political instability.
The extensive database of the project includes many measures of failure. IFs has variables representing three measures in each of the two categories, corresponding to the probability of the first year of a failure event (SFINSTABY1 and SFINTLWARY1), the probability of the first year or a continuing year (SFINSTABALL and SFINTLWARALL), and the magnitude of a first year or continuing event (SFINSTABMAG and SFINTLWARMAG).
Using data from the State Failure project, formulations were estimated for each variable using up to five independent variables that exist in the IFs model: democracy as measured on the Polity scale (DEMOCPOLITY), infant mortality (INFMOR) relative to the global average (WINFMOR), trade openness as indicated by exports (X) plus imports (M) as a percentage of GDP, GDP per capita at purchasing power parity (GDPPCP), and the average number of years of education of the population at least 25 years old (EDYRSAG25). The first three of these terms were used because of the state failure project findings of their importance and the last two were introduced because they were found to have very considerable predictive power with historic data.
The IFs project developed an analytic function capability for functions with multiple independent variables that allows the user to change the parameters of the function freely within the modeling system. The default values seldom draw upon more than 2-3 of the independent variables, because of the high correlation among many of them. Those interested in the empirical analysis should look to a project document (Hughes 2002) prepared for the CIA's Strategic Assessment Group (SAG), or to the model for the default values.
One additional formulation issue grows out of the fact that the initial values predicted for countries or regions by the six estimated equations are almost invariably somewhat different, and sometimes quite different than the empirical rate of failure. There may well be additional variables, some perhaps country-specific, that determine the empirical experience, and it is somewhat unfortunate to lose that information. Therefore the model computes three different forecasts of the six variables, depending on the user's specification of a state failure history use parameter (sfusehist). If the value is 0, forecasts are based on predictive equations only. The equation below illustrates the formulation and that for the other five state failure variables varies with estimation. The analytic function obviously handles various formulations including linear and logarithmic.
- if then (no history)
If the value of the sfusehist parameter is 1, the historical values determine the initial level for forecasting, and the predictive functions are used to change that level over time. Again the equation is illustrative.
- if then (use history)
If the value of the sfusehist parameter is 2, the historical values determine the initial level for forecasting, the predictive functions are used to change the level over time, and the forecast values converge over time to the predictive ones, gradually eliminating the influence of the country-specific empirical base. That is, the second formulation above converges linearly towards the first over years specified by a parameter (polconv), using the CONVERGE function of IFs.
- if then (converge)
Probability of state failure from different causes
The variables represent the probability of failure with respect to distinct conceptual groups of drivers.
- SFDEM (demography)
- SFECONDEV (economic/development)
- SFGOV (governance)
- SFIMBAL (structural imbalances)
Input variables needed to compute the probabilities
Other specification
Infant mortality
Deaths/1000 Births
Population growth
Youth bulge (15-29/15+)
Net migration
Thousands (2011 PPP)
GDP/cap (log) growth
Life expectancy
-10 to 10
Structural Imbalances
polity v GDP/cap
[Polity - Expected]
Life Exp. v GDP/cap
[Life Exp. - Expected]
Partial Pool (re)
Youth Bulge v Polity
[Yth Blg % - Expected]
Based on year 2013
Formulation for the probabilities is below, where β0 is the constant, β1…k are the parameters listed above, and X1…k are the driver values
Economic Inequality and Political Conflict
IFs does not yet include this important relationship. See Lichbach (1989) and Moore, Lindstrom, and O'Regan (1996) for analyses of how difficult this relationship is to specify. One critical problem is conceptualization of political conflict, political repression, political instability, political violence, political protest, etc. There are clearly many interacting, but separate dimensions for consideration. As Lichbach (1989: 448) says, "robust EI-PC laws have not been discovered."
Drug Model Equations
We use linear regressions for each of the variables described above. We fit this linear equation to logistic curves to derive the final prevalence rate. The methodology used here is similar to what is used in the water and sanitation model in the International Futures tool to compute access to water and sanitation.[2]
The values are computed using the equations given below,
- C is the amount of household consumption in billion USD
- POP is the population
- YTHBULGE is the youth bulge (Population aged between 15-29 years as a percent of the total population)
- INCOMELT310LN is the number of people living in poverty (earning less than USD 3.10 per day.
- POPURBAN is the number of people living in urban areas.
- HLEXPEND is the amount of health spending (private and public)
- GDP is the gross domestic product
Pre-Processor and first year
The values for drug prevalence are initialized using illicit drug demand data from the UNODC. However, data availability from this source is low. Appendix II shows the data coverage across countries from the UNODC. Therefore, filling holes for the first year where no data is available is crucial. There are three options available to the user when filling holes. They are,
- Using IHME equations to fill holes- The institute for health and metric evaluation also provides data on drug prevalence and this source has much higher coverage (184 countries from 1990 to 2016). However, this data pertains to treatment of drug prevalence. We developed regression equations to estimate levels of illicit drug use from the IHME drug prevalence data set. Appendix III describes these regression equations in detail.
- Using forecast year equations - This method uses the forecast year equations to derive the drug prevalence value for the first year of the model.
- Using regional averages from the UNODC- Alternatively, we can also use regional averages for illicit drug prevalence to fill in holes for individual countries.
The user can choose the initialization method using the parameter druginitsw. By default the model will choose the first option i.e. using IHME equations to fill in holes for the first year of the model.
Forecast Years
Computing Drug Demand Using the Bottom Up Approach
In the forecast years, logistic regressions are used to first estimate the drug prevalence rates. The equations for amphetamines are shown below,
This value is then used to compute the prevalence rate for each of the four drug types as follows,
The above values are then adjusted for the shift factor, multipliers and a cap on the maximum possible value
DrugShift is the shift factor computed in the first year of the model which is used to chain the forecast values to the historical values from the data
2.3 is the cap on drug prevalence for amphetamines. [3]
AMIN is the function used to get the minimum value of drug prevalence and the cap (2.3). Since prevalence of drug usage tends to be slow moving over time, we have also capped the rate of growth of the prevalence rate for all four drug types. The growth rate in the drug prevalence rate is capped at 5 percent for every country for every year. However, this growth rate is not applicable when the parameters on drug prevalence rate are activated by a user.
Finally, total drug use is computed as the average of the four drug types divided by a drugusepolyindex parameter which is set to 1.2. This is done to account for users who use multiple drugs.
Adjusting Drug Use Using the Top Down Approach
The paragraph above described the computation of drug prevalence using the bottom up approach (i.e. drug prevalence is computed for each drug type individually and this is used to compute total drug demand). However, another approach to computing drug demand would be to compute total drug demand first and distribute that across drug types (i.e. a top down approach). The model computes total drug demand using this top down approach and then converges the drug demand computed through the bottom up approach to the same
The top down model uses youth bulge and household consumption as the two main drivers.
Total drug demand is calculated as,
The total drug use from the bottom up approach is converged to the above value over a period of 100 years. Note that there is a restriction on the year growth and decline rate of total drug use of 2%.
Violence Model Equations
Pre-processor and first year
In the pre-processor, each of the violence variables are initialized using death rate data from the Institute for Health and Metric Evaluation (IHME). Please note that we only forecast mortality and the model currently does not have a representation of the prevalence of violence.
For the conflict deaths, instead of using the latest data point for initialization, we use a weighted average of conflict deaths from the previous 10 years which is then divided by two to generate a more realistic number for the initialization.
Where no data is available for any particular type of violence, we use the forecast equations to fill in holes for the first year of the model.
In the first year of the model, we need to make sure that the total deaths from violence matches the total deaths from intentional injuries in the health model. Hence we normalize the total violence deaths to the total intentional injuries deaths. Please note that this normalization is optional (i.e. the user can activate a switch svvionormsw). The normalization will also be activated in the event the user turns on the forward linkage switch from the violence model to the health model svtohlsw.
For the normalization we first calculate the total deaths from intentional injuries in the health model. This term is called the AdjustedViolenceTerm. Now, we calculate the total deaths from the violence model and call this tem SVTerm. The deaths from the violence model are now normalized to the deaths from the health model using the equations below. (The below equation is used for normalizing conflict deaths. Similar equations are used for the other types of violence),
POP is the total population
Shift factors are then calculated in the first year to chain the forecast values to the historical data.
Forecast Years
In the forecast years estimated values are calculated using forecast equations for each type of violence. The forecast equations have been explained in Table 1 below. Each of the types of violence are calculated using this estimated value and the respective shift factor calculated in the first year of the model and the multipliers on the death rates are applied.
The equations used are as follows,
ConflictEst, HomicideEst, WomenandChilEst, PoliceEst and SelfHarmEst are the estimated level of deaths calculated using the forecast equations.
ConflictShift, HomicideShift, WomenandChilShift, PoliceShift and SelfHarmShift are the shift factors calculated in the first year of the model.
Independent variable
Conflict deaths computation
Internal War magnitude
Police violence deaths computation
Log of homicides
Police violence deaths computation
Log of corruption
Interpersonal Violence Deaths computation
Interpersonal Violence Deaths computation
After this, the total number of deaths are calculated for each category. For this purpose, we first calculate the total populations for adult males, women and children from the population model as AdultMaleTerm, WomenTerm and ChildrenTerm respectively. Next, we calculate the total number of deaths for each of the categories and apply the additive parameters on total deaths (svdthsadd) as follows,
After this stage, we calculate the total deaths from societal violence as a simple sum of each of the above categories,
Because we have applied additive parameters above, we perform a recalculation of the total death rates using the total number of deaths from each category of violence.
We now calculate the total death rate from societal violence,
Finally, the homicide index is calculated using each of the above except self-harm. The contribution of each term to the homicide index can be changed using the parameter svindexm. Each term is set to a value of 1 in the Base Case.
Policy Equations: Government Expenditures
The fiscal model of IFs is quite simple and builds on the computation of government consumption (GOVCON) in the economic model.
IFs expenditures fall into six categories: military, health, education, research and development, other, and foreign aid. IFs divides total government consumption (GOVCON) into these five destination sectors (GDS) with a vector of government spending coefficients (GK) based on initial conditions. The user can change that default pattern of government spending over time with a multiplier parameter (gdsm). The model normalizes the allocation to assure that the money spent is no more or less than total government consumption.
The last category of spending complicates the allocation of spending to destination categories. It is traditional not to think of foreign aid in terms of its percentage of the governmental budget (as we often think of defense or educational expenditures), but to think of it in terms of a percentage of the GDP. For instance, the United Nations has called for foreign aid spending equal to 0.7% (earlier 1.0%) of GDP of donor countries. Moreover, for some governments, foreign aid is not an expenditure, but a receipt and an addition to government revenues.
Therefore IFs actually calculates foreign aid expenditures and receipts first and fixes those amounts (see the foreign aid equations). It then allocates the amount of government spending that remains in the coffers of aid donors (or the augmented amount available to aid recipients) among the other categories, normalizing the allocation to the sum of the coefficients in those other categories.
There are several forward linkages of government spending that are important. A mortality multiplier (MORTMG) is computed for the demographic model, using changes in health spending from the initial year and a parameter of the impact of that spending (elashc).
Three of the forward linkages carry information on spending to the calculation of multifactor productivity in the economic production function, for additive rather than multiplicative use. One variable tracks change in education spending (CNGEDUC), modified by an elasticity of education on MFP (elmfped) and carries it forward. Another tracks changes in health spending (CNGHLTH) using a parameter (elmfphl). The third tracks changes in R&D spending with a parameter of impact (elmfprd). In each case there is a lag involved because of computational sequence.
Because essentially of an older variable form for the education term that is still used in the agricultural model's production function, the first of the three terms is transferred to that older variable (LEFMG).
Policy Equations: Foreign Aid
IFs uses a "pool" approach to aid (AID) rather than indicating bilateral flows from particular donors to particular recipients. That is, all aid from all donors flows into the pool and then all recipients draw proportions of the pool.
IFs uses the aid value parameter (AIDDON) to calculate the aid (AID) from donors and AIDREC to calculate the targeted aid to recipients. The pool of aid donations determines the actual total level of interstate aid flows, however, and is allocated among potential recipients according to the proportions targeted for each.
Aid outflows are negative and the total aid pool given (AIDP) is the sum of the negative flows, while the total desired aid of recipients (AIDR) is the sum of positive flows.
- if
- if
A recomputation of aid for recipients distributes the aid pool across their demands.
- if
- ↑ here is the first reference
- ↑ Rothman, D.S. and Irfan M.T, IFs infrastructure model documentation, Working Paper 2013.07.22, Josef Korbel School of International Studies, University of Denver, Denver CO. https://pardee.du.edu/ifs-infrastructure-model-documentation
- ↑ These caps have been chosen on the basis of the highest historical global prevalence rates


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