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Sunday December 1st, 2013, Saw two special premieres take place in Second Life and in the same time-frame. The first was for the opening season two of The Blackened Mirror. The second was a very special presentation of A Christmas Carol, forming the return of The Dickens Project to Second Life – and its first presentation in real life.
The presentation took place at the Greek Archon Theatre in Cookie, where Caledonia Skytower, Shandon Loring and Kayden Oconnell took to the stage before an audience of invited guests to present Dickens' most popular Christmas tale. At the same time, Caledonia's real-life persona, Judith Cullen, was seated in the Pythian Lodge in Tacoma, Washington, before an audience who had also gathered to hear the story, and who could watch in-world activities via a large screen. As is the magic of Second Life, Kayden joined her via voice from Minnesota and Shandon from Nebraska.
As with the original run of The Dickens Project, performed over Christmas 2012, the reading took place in a specially created set representing a scene from Dickens' time and which, when the project re-opens its doors to the public later in the month, will provide a special walk-through of Charles Dickens' life, works and the times in which he lived. The outdoor stage, sans props, provided a simple and effective focal-point for the reading, with Caledonia and Kayden sharing the role of the story's narrator and taking on the various supporting roles, while Shandon once again reprised the role of Ebenezer Scrooge.
Prior to the reading commencing, the audiences in both worlds were told something of the history of the Knights of Pythia and the lodge in which the real world audience were seated. To help them understand Second Life better, Judith / Caledonia gave a very short overview of the platform, and members of the digital audience were encouraged to interact – if only one-way – with the real-life audience through greetings, etc. Nor was the performance entirely static for the audience in Tacoma; to give them a greater feeling of involvement, the in-world feed was monitored by another SL user, who used the viewer's camera to show actors, audience and setting.
The performance, using a text adapted and annotated by Dickens himself when he presented the story in person, together with some additional text from the full novella, was presented with aplomb and style by the three artists. From my own perspective, I found it to be as much an engaging and virtuoso performance as the time I saw Sir Patrick Stewart perform A Christmas Carol as a one-man show; so much so that, other than the need to flick away for some 20 minutes to take care of other commitments, the time simply flew by for me.
For Judith / Caledonia, who conceived, directed and produced The Dickens Project, I know that this is very much a personal triumph; she has been working towards The Dickens Project being both a real life and virtual experience for the better part of a year. If the audio feedback was anything to go by for those of us in the virtual world, the performance was very well received in Tacoma and generated a number of questions about the story, the idea and Second Life from the audience there.
While the presentation was, in terms of a combined SL / RL event, a one-off (at least for now!), The Dickens Project will be returning to Second Life for a seasonal run commencing on Friday December 13th. I've no details on the schedule at the moment, but will publish them here once confirmed.
If you've not seen a performance of The Dickens Project, I urge you to take the time to do so once the new season opens. Anyone with a love for literature and especially for Dickens' famous tale of a miserly old man, ghosts, and ethical and emotional transformations, will love this performance. Kudos to Caledonia, Shandon and Kayden and to all those who helped make The Dickens Project a reality once more – and in both the real and digital realms!
Related Links
Both the real world and SL presentations of A Christmas Carol were free admission. However, audiences at both were offered the opportunity to donate to one of two charities: War Child North America in the case of the SL audience and My Sister's Pantry for those in the real world audience.


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No, it's not a Swedish truck company, or a bar code printer.
It's the way words read or sing back when you have them in a song or poem.
And, scansion is the big bugbear of my life at the moment.
I freely admit (again) that I'm not the world's authority on worship music or what's appropriate for a song, but please can we have something that uses the same rhythm in the lyrics for verse one as it does for verse two?
Keith Getty, you are my hero. You write hymns that scan and have meaning. GK, you similarly are wise and well versified, even in the more recent stuff.
The one who gets my hackles raised in anguish (as opposed to my hands in worship) will go for now unidentified. He is responsible for appalling changes of emphasis, and the one that set me off this Sunday involved a ten syllable line delivered quickly over three beats. Not a sin, but when it follows a three syllable line that lasts a couple of bars, you need a bit of warning to change gear!
I'm not going to rant forever, but leave you with this poem which I wrote.
music is great
but how I hate
lyrics that grate
and kill the music by forcing a compromise to deal with poor scansion.
'Nuff said?


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Forbes reports …
Ambassador Vladmir Zaemskiy told a news conference that Russian engineers and Venezuelan construction firms were building the rifle and cartridge plants which, when operational, would employ more than 1,500 workers.
He gave no completion date for the plants under construction in the central state of Aragua.
Details about Moscow's military shipments and projects have been scarce since socialist President Hugo Chavez's government began signing military agreements with Russia back in 2001.
I do wonder why the construction of a massive industrial complex, employing 1,500 people, can be justified to supply a country with a population just 25% greater than that of the NYC metro area. So the question on my mind is who do they plan on exporting to? … and how long before these rifles turn up on the Mexican/US border?
Many thanks to Todd for sending me the link.


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Learn how to manage Shaw WiFi Pods on your home network. Pods can be renamed or removed at any time using BlueCurve Home. This can be helpful if you're troubleshooting or relocating a pod to a different spot in your home.
Repeat the steps above to remove additional pods. Or, follow Setting up and activating Shaw WiFi Pods to add Pods to your home.
Not what you're looking for? Try these related articles and discussions.


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Free, public WiFi points are a dying breed. Most WiFi points these days are locked down tight with passwords and encryption. And if they're not locked down, they want to charge you exorbitant rates for a few measly hours of WiFi access.
— Coding Horror (linked to the article earlier, but forgot to quote this)


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As I sit in front of the keyboard, it's just after half-past eight and this is the first chance I've had since this morning to write. What's been occurring? Well, stuff. That's it, really. But today just got completely away from me, and as a result I'm entirely at a loss as to what's happened today in the various parties' election campaigns. Now, while I've never claimed to be an expert on the policy proposals, I don't really want to write something which, in hindsight, and with half an hour of the right research would be accurate, but that if I write it now, ignorant of the day's events, would do nothing so much as prove to everyone I'm an idiot. I don't mind my friends knowing I'm an idiot, but I'd rather not prove it to too many others tonight.
So, with your forebearance, I'll provide you with a modium of entertainment, another fast fiction I wrote that has, at least tangentially, to do with legislative activites…
Title: Everyone You Don't Know
Length: 200 words exactly
"And this…" the microphone holding man continued, "is Mrs Petula Johnson. Because your government held the Budget on a Friday, her company – which supplies cleaning services – was no longer able to employ her."
The government minister forced a look of sincere caring to his features and shook the woman's hand. She shot him a look that could have curdled milk, and moved off the stage rapidly.
"Next we have Peter Beaumont; he was adopted as a baby, became a Christian missionary, and solely because the department of transport increased the width of platforms at train stations, found himself standing next to his natural father."
Beaumont strode towards the minister with a broad grin on his face, and shook the minister's hand enthusiastically. Then he too vacated the stage.
A small chime sounded and there was an instant feeling of relaxation as the red light on the television camera went out. "Right, thank you everyone," came a voice over the loudspeaker. "We've gone to the scheduled news. Back in fifteen minutes."
The minister looked to his left, at the long queue of people waiting to scold him, or thank him.
He was sorry they'd ever passed that Law of Unintended Consequences…
© Lee Barnett, 2010
Back with something more substantial tomorrow…


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Supplier News
Wine harvests and pricing trends for the Southern Hemisphere
The weather has once again taken its toll on a number of the major wine producing countries in the Southern Hemisphere.
The weather has once again taken its toll on a number of the major wine-producing countries in the Southern Hemisphere. But with increased demand for its wines in growing markets such as the US and Asia then prices have largely been maintained or risen to offset squeezed supplies.
CHILE Chile is having to cope with another small harvest, down 6.4% on what was already a short crop in 2016. But it is doing its best to absorb the pressure from North American, European, Chinese and some Argentinean demand. That said some Chilean wineries were said to have sold out of their 2017 wines by May.
An ongoing weakening of the Peso against the US dollar since mid-2013 has boosted the competitiveness of Chilean wines in major export markets. In addition, the high prices of Argentinean Malbec have switched many buyers over to Chile, putting pressure on supplies.
Production in the largest producing region, Maule, was down 7.7% on 2016, from 467 million litres to 431.2 m/l; production in the second-largest, the O'Higgins Region, fell 2.1%, from 322.4 m/l to 315.5 m/l. The biggest drop came in the Bío Bío region, which saw its production plummet from 40 m/l to 19.23 m/l between 2016 and 2017 (Rabobank).
Between January and April this year Chile exported more than 304 m/l of wine around the world of which just under half, 145 m/l was in bulk wine. This represents a 6% increase on the same period last year. In value terms, more than $115m was exported, a drop from last year's $137m.
Despite the smaller harvest, Chilean bulk wine exports grew by 17% last year, outstripping those of bottled wine which only increased by 6% according to Rabobank's latest quarterly wine report.
In terms of value, bulk wine exports proved a drag, recording a 1% decline, despite the volume growth. China and Japan were the two markets which experienced the biggest increase in Chilean exports, up by 55% and 21% respectively in volume terms, demonstrating the value of Chile's free trade agreements with these countries, which progressively reduce wine import tariffs.
China imports of Chilean bulk wine have doubled since 2014, and the country has surpassed the UK and the US to become Chile's largest importer of fine wine. And in 2015, for the first time, Japan imported more wine from Chile than any other country.
ARGENTINA Argentina has experienced its worst vintage in 10 years, with heavy rain, high temperatures and humidity resulting in delayed maturation of grapes across all regions. Mendoza's crop is predicted to be down by nearly a quarter (24%), to between 128m/l and 134 m/l.
As a result, Argentina's wine exports have declined by 18 m/l to 240 m/l, though that is largely a reflection of the two shorter consecutive vintages – in 2015, the country produced 1,340 m/l of wine, but this slumped to 880 m/l in 2016. Estimates for 2017 are for a slight improvement on last year, but still well down on previous years. In terms of the total production, Argentina's exports actually increased from 19% of the total in 2016 to 27% this year.
Imports, meanwhile, have soared from virtually zero to 60 m/l in the past year, and now account for 6% of the total Argentine wine market, partly to compensate for the shortfall in the domestic harvest and partly because while the average price of imported wine is $0.75 per litre, Argentine exports average $3.32 per litre.
Following a short 2017 crop, Argentina's Malbec price is up from $1.40 – $1.50 last year to $1.90 to $2.10. The country's ongoing peso devaluation against the dollar could, however, make Malbec more attractive for buyers if this continues.
With mid-term elections looming in October, the subsequent political and economic uncertainty left the Argentine peso trading at a record low of 16.825 versus the dollar and has devalued further since. The country's rising inflation has increased average harvesting costs by more than 35%, and these factors are expected to push up export prices which are likely to cause supply substitution.
SOUTH AFRICA Chile and Argentina's smaller than average crops this year puts South Africa centre stage.
Many Russian, Chinese and North American buyers have concluded that South Africa is the most attractive alternative to Spain and Chile, and according to data from Ciatti in the year to May 2017, South Africa's bulk wine exports to Eastern Europe, (predominantly Russia), were up by 46% in the same period last year to 32 million litres.
Bulk wine exports to China were also up by some 201% to 13.3m litres, while sales to Canada were up by 44% to 19.8m litres and up by 840% to the US from 1.6 m litres to 15.1m litres.
Increased bulk shipments to Germany (4%) and France (1%), also went some way to offset a 7% decline in shipments to the UK. As a result, availability on South Africa's varietal bulk Sauvignon Blanc, Chardonnay, Cabernet and Merlot is "very tight" according to Ciatti.
Although South Africa's bulk shipments to the UK, its leading export market, dropped by 7% in the year to May 2017, from 71.3m litres to 66.4m litres, bottled shipments actually jumped by 13%, or 4 m/l to reach 35.6 litres.
Given the increased demand for South African wine, it is just as well that the 2017 wine crop was larger than anticipated, at 1,425,283 tones, according to the South African Wine Industry Information and Systems (SAWIS) at the end of April 2017, a 1.4% increase on 2016. This compares to 1,154m litres in 2015 and 1,089 litres in 2016.
Bulk wine exports to Sweden were also down by 19% to 5.7m litres, although they were slightly up to Denmark, by 7% to 13.7m litres.
South Africa has enjoyed a very dry growing season this year, which has kept rot and fungus at bay, though of course, the very same dry conditions can become a curse the longer they prevail. Only an exceptionally wet winter will ensure water supply shortages are not a significant problem in the next growing season.
AUSTRALIA Australia saw its wine exports drop by 1.6% in volume in the first three months of this year, with value rising by over 13%. The volume decline was driven by a dropping off in bulk wine shipments, though these were largely compensated for by improving trends in bottled shipments, which helped drive value growth. Exports to the UK proved the biggest drag on overall volumes, but these were compensated for by improving trends in bottled shipments to China and bulk exports to the US.
France was the destination which saw the biggest increase in imports of Australian wine, with a 14.7% upturn in sales, followed by Spain, where imports from Australia increased by 8.9% in value. The destination which saw the biggest increase in imports was France, which saw a 14.7% upturn in the value of shipments from Down Under, followed by Spain, where imports of Australian wine increased by 8.9% in value
Since the 1990s the Australian wine industry has hugely increased the use of bulk shipping to transport wine from its shores to one of its key export markets, the UK.
Less than a third (29%) of wine by volume was exported in bulk in 2008 from Australia, but this proportion had increased to 80% by 2012.
Australia exported 66% of last year's total production – 1,100 m/l – and 65% of this year's 1,200 m/l. Imports were slightly down on last year from 88 m/l to 83 m/l.
NEW ZEALAND 2017 produced a smaller than expected crop in New Zealand, weighing in at around 396,000 tonnes, a 9% drop on 2016 due to challenging weather conditions.
In terms of vintage quality, Philip Gregan, CEO of New Zealand Winegrowers said: "Given strong demand in overseas markets, wineries had been looking forward to a larger harvest this year. With the smaller vintage, however, export volume growth is likely to be more muted in the year ahead"
New Zealand wine, the country's fifth-largest export good, is currently exported to more than 90 countries and exports are valued at $1.65 billion a year.
The smaller vintage was attributable to the challenging weather conditions, but in terms of vintage quality, Gregan said wineries were confident it would deliver the fruit flavours that New Zealand wine is known for.
"Reports from across the wine regions indicate that generally, wineries are positive about the vintage quality. However, as always, the ultimate test will be how the market reacts to the wines when they are released. At this stage we are confident that the 2017 vintage will add to New Zealand's reputation as a premium producer of cool climate wines," he said.
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Today take a moment or two and self evaluate to what you really want and love in your life as will what do you want to attract seeing if you your self are inline with what you are seeking. Ask your self do you love your self and your world are you happy with how you are in your life, not what you wish for but how your life is going in the here and now. Start with loving your self and how your life is now to attract more of the goodness that is in our abundant world and alway giving Thanks living with an Attitude of Gratitude.
Visionary Bryan Smith


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« El¾z¾TovÃbb »
Ripe years and laboring oar, A KINDLY host is Winter hoar,
Toil in the darkening deep;
And o'er my heart and soul there sweep With icy fingers, warm of heari!
The breakers of the sea.
Strength sailing -- autuman time,
Its sigh and silent tear;
The sobbing of the sea.
Old age and winter time, Where snow upon the meadow lics,
The fight and sorrow cease;
And in the heart and soul is peaceAnd leasiess branches shiver bare,
"There shall be no more sea. And stars oft blink their aching eyes, That look so long through frozen air!
Sunday Magazine, STAINLEY WEST.
From The Contemporary Review. his fellow-men. This embodiment of a
clear, cold, passionless intelligence was "Il été assez heureux ou assez sage, dead to every æsthetic sense, and had no pour que l'on ne sache presqu'autre chose element of anything that was enthusiastic de lui, et qu'il n'y ait dans son histoire or chivalrous in its composition. To Cavd'autres incidens que des decouvertes." endish science was, in truth, measureThese words were spoken by Cuvier, the ment. " His theory of the universe," says perpetual secretary of the French Acad. Wilson, " to have been that it emy, on the occasion of his éloge on Cav- consisted solely of a multitude of objects endish, the discoverer of the compound which could be weighed, numbered, and nature of water, who, in his old age had measured; and the vocation to which he been elected a member of the Institute. considered himself called was to weigh, At first sight they may seem a mere para. number, and measure as many of these phrase of a saying which has become objects as his allotted three score years almost trite, but to those who heard them and ten would permit. He weighed the for the first time they had a significance earth; he analyzed the air; he discovered which must have been realized with some the compound nature of water; he noted thing like a pang. For at such a time, with numerical precision the obscure acnot one of Cuvier's hearers could have tions of the ancient element, fire." But been unmindful of 1794, or have been all this work was done primarily for him. unmoved by the recollection of a tragedy self, and to satisfy the questionings of his in which the most illustrious of Caven- own intelligence. To give the results of dish's contemporaries, a man whose life it to the world was hardly a part of his bad been dedicated to the cause of hu- plan, for he cared nothing for the world, manity, and whose services to science and was absolutely indifferent to the inbave reflected an imperishable lustre upon terests or judgment of his fellows. And France, was sacrificed to the blind fury of yet Cavendish was revered, even if he was bis countrymen. Indeed, to the lively not loved, during his long and uneventful and sympathetic intelligence of such an life, and at his death was laid to rest with auditory, quickened as it must have been every mark of honor and respect in the by the singular charm of the speaker's splendid tomb which his ancestress, Elizstyle, his profound sensibility, and rhetor- abeth Hardwicke, had built for herself and ical skill, the strong dramatic element in her descendants. the situation could hardly have remained On the other hand, Lavoisier was a man doperceived. Lavoisier and Cavendish in whom the elements were kindly mixed. were, in a sepse, national types; they were, No one could more truly say of himself, too, when at the summit of their intellec- " Homo sum: humani nihil a me alienum tual power, the acknowledged representa- puto.". He was ardent, enthusiastic, fond tives of two opposing schools of thought of the society of his fellows, a man of Both were aristocrats, and both, from generous impulses, of Catholic tastes, and being poor, became very rich ; Cavendish, of lofty aims. As a philosopher his influindeed, was, as M. Biot has said, "le ence throughout Europe was supreme, plus riche de tous les savans et probable- and the manner in which his renown was ment aussi le plus savant de tous les won was of a kind to strike the national riches." But here the resemblance ends; imagination and to minister to the national in character, temperament, and genius, in pride. At the zenith of his fame he was everything that constitutes individuality, as much a dictator in the world of science the men were as wide asunder as the as Napoleon became in the world of polipoles. Cavendish has been described by tics. But in the very plenitude of this his biographer Wilson as the most pas- power he was struck at by Fouquier-Tinsively selfish of mortals — a sort of scien-ville, and he who had labored unceasingly tific anchorite, who maintained during the for the glory and well-being of his country four score years of his existence a rigid, was declared guilty of complicity in a undeviating indifference to the affairs of conspiracy "against the French people
of a
tending to favor by all possible means the work, and especialiy in the circumstances success of the enemies of France." La- which led to his untimely death, on which voisier's crime was that he had been a we would-gladly have more information. fermier-général. He was accused, in the Amongst the crop of literature which the words of the indictment, "of adding to centenary of the Revolution has brought tobacco, water and other ingredients detri. forth in France, the historian of science mental to the health of the citizens." It has welcomed, therefore, with special in
a feeble enough weapon to throw terest, the admirable monograph on Lavoieven at a fermier-général, but it was sier which we owe to the patient industry thrown with terrible effect. Even to be and patriotic zeal of Professor Grimaux.* suspected of tampering with the tobacco It must have struck many people, as M.
citizen" sufficed for the Tribunal Grimaux tells us it has struck him, that, before which he was brought, although it in spite of the glory which surrounds the taxed the ingenuity of Lieodon to show name of Lavoisier, it is remarkable that low this alleged sophistication brought the life of the creator of modern chemistry the accused within the same section of has still to be written. Beyond the short the penal code that swept the Dantonists biographical notices by Lalande, Fourto the scaffold. Coffinhal, the vice-pres. croy, and Cuvier, which deal mainly with ident of the Tribunal, pronounced the Lavoisier as a man of science, we know judgment: "The Republic has no need practically nothing of the story of a life of men of science," and within twenty-four which was wholly devoted to the public hours the tumbril was on its way to the good. Even the world of science knows Place de la Révolution, and, as the procès. scarcely anything of his private life, of his verbal sets forth,"sur un échaffaud dressé virtues, of his intelligent philanthropy, and sur la dite place, le dit Lavoisier, en notre of the services which he rendered to his présence, subi la peine de mort." Well country as an Academician, an economist, might Lagrange say to Delambre: "It re. an agriculturist, and a financier. Luckily quired but a moment to strike off this for his biographer, Lavoisier was a man head and probably a hundred years will of perfect method, and he preserved all not suffice to reproduce such another."* his manuscripts without exception. After
The main events in the scientific career his death these papers were religiously of the great French chemist are tolerably guarded by Madame Lavoisier, from well known, and his position in the history whom they passed to Madame Léon de of the development of chemistry is now Chazelles, her grand-niece. This, together fully assured. The story of his scientific with other material preserved at the Chalife bas recently been told by M. Berthelot teau de la Canière, where also are kept with all the charm and tact which char. Lavoisier's books and instruments, has acterize the éloges which it is the duty of served M. Grimaux as the basis of his the secretaries of the Academy from time book. In addition, he has searched to time to prepare. Although English through the public archives, with the men of science may think that M. Berthe result that we have now presented to us, lot occasionally fails to mete out the strict for the first time, the details of Lavoisier's justice to their countrymen that historical political life and the true story of his trial accuracy demands, there caonot be a and condemnation. doubt, in spite of all legitimate deductions, Antoine-Laurent Lavoisier was born in that Lavoisier remains the dominant figure Paris on August 26, 1743. His father, in the chemical world of the last century. Jean-Antoine, was advocate ; his There is much, however, in his life and mother, née Punctis, died when he was
five years old, and he and a young sister, • The Republic, a few months afterwards, found also who only lived a few years, were taken that it had no need of Coffinhal; he fell with Robespierre, and was guillotined on the 18th Thermidor of the year II. Fouquier-Tinville and some half-dozen • LAVOISIER, 1943-1794. D'après sa correspondance, others who had been concerned in the trial of Lavoisier ses manuscrits, ses papiers de famille, et d'autres docu. were also brought to the scaffold at about the same ments inédits. Par Edouard Grimaux. Paris: Felix
charge of by the grandmother and her suffered frequent internal changes, but in daughter, Mlle. Constance Punctis. The the middle of the eighteenth century it family was rich, and was able to send the was subject to the constitution of 1699, as young Antoine to the Collège Mazarin, modified in 1716. It was composed of where he seems to have acquired that members of very different orders, enjoying passion for natural science which was the very unequal rights. There were twelve motive power of his life. He studied honorary members, chosen from among mathematics with the Abbé La Caille, the great nobles, and from whom were well known for his measurement of an selected the president and vice-presidents, arc of the meridian at the Cape of Good eighteen pensionaries, twelve associates, Hope, and for his determination of the and twelve adjoints distributed among the length of a seconds pendulum; be learnt geometers, astronomers, mechanicians, botany from Bernard de Jussieu, and geol- chemists, and botanists; in addition there ogy and mineralogy from Guettard. But were a number of free associates, superan. it was principally by Rouelle's teaching nuated associates, and pensionaries. The that the particular direction of Lavoisier's honorary members and the pensionaries scientific activity was shaped. Guillaume had alone a deliberative voice in the elecFrançois Rouelle is mainly remembered tions, and in the business of the Academy. by chemists to-day as having just missed The two associates in the class in which the discovery of the law of combination there was a vacancy were, however, called by definite proportions. By his contem- upon, in company with three pensionaries, poraries he was considered to have said to draw up the list of candidates. The more "good things" than any man of bis adjoints had practically no privileges betime. In spite of his oddities he exer- yond that of sitting next to an associate cised an extraordinary influence as a when there was room ; at other times they teacher; bis lecture-room at the Jardin sat upon the benches placed behind the du Roi was crowded by auditors from all armchairs of the associates. parts of Europe, and among his pupils The 18th of May, 1768, when the young were Macquer, Bucquet, D'Arcet, and Lavoisier gained his seat upon the back Lavoisier, the men who were destined to benches, was a red-letter day in the history make the end of the eighteenth century of the house of Punctis. It was no less one of the most stirring epochs in the important in the history of the Academy, history of chemistry.
for the young adjoint was destined to be Lavoisier was originally intended for its champion and do battle for its existence the profession of the law, and actually be during the dark and terrible time of the came a licentiate in 1764, but at the insti- Revolution. Lavoisier's extraordinary gation of Guettard, whom he accompanied power of work, his intellectual keenness, in bis journeys through France, and to and range of knowledge, were quickly recwhom he was of assistance in the prepa- ognized, and in spite of his youth he was ration of his great mineralogical atlas, he charged with the preparation of numerous abandoned that career and gave himself reports. This part of an Academician's up to science. In 1765 he sent his first duty was as difficult and irksome as it was paper to the Academy - a modest enough delicate. During the twenty-five years of communication on gypsum, but note his connection with the Academy he con. worthy as giving for the first time the tributed upwards of two hundred reports true explanation of the setting of plaster on such disconnected matters as the theory of Paris, and of the reason that overburnt of colors, the areometer of Cartier, modes gypsum will not rehydrate.
of determining longitudes, armchairs for In the following year he was awarded a invalids, prison reform, water supply, the medal by the Academy for an essay on cold of the winter in 1776, the pretensions the lighting of large towns, and in the of Mesmer, the aerostatic inventions of same year he was placed upon the list of Montgolfier, the imposture of the divining. candidates for election into that august rod, etc., etc. body. The Académie des Sciences has Almost immediately after Lavoisier had


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Essay: Story of My Name is Khan
Sample Essay
Khan is born in India and it is evident that Khan's level of functioning differs greatly from that of normal children. This result in Khan getting extra attention and affection from his mother that creates significant amount barriers between him and his brother. Soon after his mother's demise, he is sponsored by his brother and he immigrates to America. This is a turning point in Khan's life and one can argue that this point is the most influential and crucial stage in his life. Having lived his entire life under his mother's protection, for the first he has to face the world on his own and he has to come to terms with the fact that he is in fact different from the rest of the people.
Moving to a different place is already tough move, and when Khan does that all by himself he is naturally overwhelmed with scepticism and fear, but lacks the emotional sophistication to show it. Though, his brother is there to provide him with maximum support, but considering the grievances he had nursed against him over the years it is imminent that Khan is on his own. His brother's wife brings to everyone's notice that he suffers from Asperger's syndrome; which explains his behaviour. This aspect of the shows the ignorance and lack of knowledge that exists in the world today concerning major psychological disorders such as these and these people are stigmatized by the society. (Willey. 1999)
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The dollar exchange rate closed on the black market this Thursday evening, between 20900 and 20950 Lebanese pounds per dollar.
This morning it recorded between 20950 and 21050 Lebanese pounds per dollar.
The draft budget set the average exchange rate of the Lebanese pound during the last quarter of 2021 at about 20 thousand pounds and 10,083 during the whole year. The official exchange rate, which is applied in government transactions, including customs tariffs, is still about 1,500 pounds to the dollar.
The Lebanese pound has lost more than 93 percent of its value since summer 2019, when it began breaking away from the exchange rate of 1,500 LBP to the dollar, which has been pegged since 1997.
A month ago, Lebanon's Central Bank had set a new rate of 8,000 Lebanese pounds to the US dollar for withdrawals from bank deposits denominated in dollars but which can now only be accessed in the local currency.
The World Bank described Lebanon's crisis as one of the worst recessions in world history. Most of the depositors' funds in US dollars have been frozen since October 2019, and during this period the national currency lost more than 90% of its value.


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By Jim O'Neill, Visiting Research Fellow at Bruegel, and previously Chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM). Originally published at Breugel.
In late 2001, I first used the phrase BRIC to discuss the likely rise of Brazil, Russia, India and China as growing shares of the world economy and outlined a number of scenarios in which it seemed pretty inevitable that their share would rise sharply by the end of that decade. In 2003, along with some Goldman Sachs colleagues, we first projected what the world might look like by 2050 if the BRIC and other large emerging economies reached their potential, a world that would be dramatically different than the one prevailing at the time.
It was these two papers that led to the beginning of the focus on the phrase BRIC and indeed, my own central role in the story that since unfolded. What is especially noteworthy over the subsequent 13 and ½ years is just how dominant China has become within the BRIC group in terms of economic size, as well of course, it's increasing importance to the world economy. At the end of 2014, China's economy surpassed $10 trillion in current US$ and according to the World Bank, in purchasing power parity terms (PPP), actually was larger than the US. At $10 trillion, China is around one and a half times the size of the other three BRIC countries put together. It is also bigger than the combined size of France, Germany and Italy. It is about twice the size of Japan (in the 2003 Paper, we thought it might take China until 2015 to reach the size of Japan, never mind twice). Its economic size has nearly risen tenfold since I first mentioned the word "BRIC" and since the 2008 global credit crisis, China has doubled its own size.
In terms of size and growth, perhaps it is especially important to point out that not only did China grow at lot more than expected in the last decade, which was also true for the other three BRIC countries, but so far, in this decade, it is the only one that has–so far–surpassed my expectations. The other three, Brazil and Russia in particular, India less so, have disappointed my expectations notably. Back in 2010, I assumed China would grow by 7.5 percent over the decade 2011–2020. After four years, it has averaged 8.0 percent.
All of this means that China is still on track to achieve the 2027 dateline for when it could surpass the US in current US$ terms, and also, due to China's dominance , the BRIC countries collectively could become as large as the G7 countries collectively. Of course, 12 years is a very long time and a lot of things could develop differently, but if China carries on the way it has been developing, it will occur. Importantly in this regard, I would like to emphasise that I assumed China would slow in terms of its real GDP growth rate, so unless it slows dramatically, this slowdown is consistent with China becoming the world's largest economy. I will turn to the critical issues facing China below.
It is of course, exceptionally important to point out that nominal GDP growth in its own right is not necessarily so key for China's inhabitants as it is their individual wealth that matters to all of them (along with probably their health and happiness). Given that China's population is widely regarded to be reasonably stable, or if anything, declining modestly, the country's average GDP per capita–the simplest measure of wealth–should probably still broadly follow the path of its nominal GDP. Importantly again, GDP per capita has jumped sharply to nearly $8 thousand per head, reflective of the large growth rate. While measures of inequality suggest that the gap between the richest and lowest has risen, it is also the case, that hundreds of millions of Chinese have been taken out of poverty in the last 13 and ½ years, a key contributor to the UN achieving its millennium goal of halving poverty by 2015. In fact, this goal occurred by 2010, five years earlier, and has led to UN and World Bank researchers suggesting that the acceptable level to escape poverty might need to be raised. China has been easily the most important country contributing to these remarkable developments.
So what are China's prospects now? What does it need to focus on as policy priorities? And how should it deal with its international importance and role in global governance, including the use of its currency, the RMB?
In recent years, I have participated in many debates with other well–known commentators who are much more sceptical about China's future, and while of course, I may be blind to the validity of their concerns, I find many of the arguments unpersuasive. Much of this is due to one simple fact, and that is the urbanisation of China's citizens. According to official data, just over 50 percent of China's people today live in cities, a vast rise compared to 20 years ago, but still significantly below the 70 percent that is typically found in more advanced and wealthy economies. As I shall explain, if China were already 70 percent urbanised today, then I would share, at least some of, the concerns of others. There is however a significant amount of evidence going through history going as far back as the industrial revolution in the UK, that urbanisation is a huge force that propels economic growth as urban dwellers drive all sorts of positive economic forces, both as consumers and producers. The OECD has recently published a very interesting study, consistent with this, that suggests the largest urban areas are typically associated with the strongest improvements in productivity.
If it were true that China is closer to the 70 percent norm, then some of the powerful forces that are so natural would cease, and I would be less optimistic. Of course, it is possible that the official statistics about the level of urbanisation today in China underestimates the actual true figures, and I know some that believe this, but I don't see the evidence as compelling.
Linked to this simple observation, the most important policy that I believe China needs to pursue is to go ahead with stated plans to give so called migrant workers the same citizen rights as those that originate from urban areas. While I can see the challenges that may be raised by a sudden mass conversion in all cities, if true urban dwellers who have moved from the country can't get the full rights, it follows that the conceptual benefits of urbanisation–starting with the very basic desire to own a property, and then to furniture it with consumer durables–cannot occur. It also follows that these migrant workers will be likely to maintain high levels of personal savings that they may need to help them to achieve some of the available resources that modern policies are making more available to recognised urban dwellers such as healthcare and insurance.
I have met some China sceptics that argue that due to the success of the one child policy, there are not enough male urban migrants to participate in the presumed further urbanisation process assumed above, which if true, would be an issue. In this regard, I also view the decision to formally dismantle the one child policy as very sensible. Economic growth is driven by two factors over the long term, the number of people that work, and their productivity. If China had not relented, then it was highly likely that China would face a serious demographic challenge in the future. I also believe that as individual parents become wealthier, they are likely to derive great comfort from deciding how many children they might want. There is quite a bit of evidence that as people get wealthier (and more informed), they typically choose to have less children anyhow, so any fears that some policymakers may have of a renewed population explosion are probably not valid. So as I say, dismantling the one child policy in a non–disruptive manner is highly welcome.
Against the background of these two critical steps, I admire the government's desire to grow the share of consumption in overall economic affairs. Indeed if the above two key steps are adopted with confidence, awareness and sincerity, they might be the biggest steps necessary to achieve what many often think is an elusive goal for China. From what I can tell, based on the official data, it is probably the case that the share of consumption in overall GDP has risen modestly in recent years, to somewhere between 35 and 40 percent of GDP. It needs to be much higher, not to the unsustainable level of 70 percent that the US reached–and probably contributed greatly to the global credit crisis–but something in the 50 to 55 percent vicinity at least. Indeed, something around 60 percent would be quite normal and sustainable.
In addition to pursuit of full urban rights for migrant workers, steps to ensure a credible social security and healthcare system and the development of a pension scheme of some sort are other necessary ingredients for helping the rise of the consumer, as this would allow for a decline in China's too high personal savings rate. Other normal cyclical factors such as employment and strong real income growth are obviously necessary too but it is these structural forces that need to change more.
It is possibly the case that, already the true level of personal consumption might be actually higher than is generally captured in aggregate economic data , due to the peculiarities about how investment estimates are made. Further improvements to all official economic statistics are an obvious necessity for Chinese policy (as indeed is true virtually everywhere in the world). But even with any revisions, it is important that China does make progress to raise the role of its consumer.
Part of this rationale is simply due to the fact that it is quite hard to believe that the remarkable growth of each of exports and investment spending of the past 20 years or so, can continue. Exports have already slowed significantly since the global credit crisis, which is not surprising given that the main determinant of export growth is usually domestic demand in export markets as well as the relative price of exports, of which a nation's currency is usually critical. With the weakness of demand in many developed countries and the steady appreciation of the RMB, the days of rampant export growth for China are almost certainly over. This doesn't mean China cannot export or cannot compete, but it's seemingly never ending rise as an exporter was not sustainable in a world where many others like to export, and in some cases, have urgent need.
It is important that China does make progress to raise the role of its consumer.
Currently it is the high level of investment spending that is more concerning, both because it is not sustainable but also because if, as the last few years suggests, the same amount of investment is producing less additional GDP than before, then this is something that is not desirable and likely to involve economic losses. Luckily as with a number of other challenges, policymakers recognise this dilemma and seem eager for investment to grow more slowly, and make room for consumption to rise.
Consistent with these themes, I am a big fan of the focus on the "quality" of growth, the desire for a more knowledge based economy and society, and these are mutually consistent as is the necessary desire for a shift to less polluting and more efficient energies so that the quality of the urban and rural environment can be maintained in China.
Which brings me to the last two topics, finance and the role of China in global economic governance.
In this regard, I applaud the recent decision of the UK government to choose to be one of the first countries to sign up to be a member of the newly formed AIIB.
I am not as convinced as many as the need for the RMB to be fully floating currency as that of the Dollar or Euro, at least the urgency of the need, and think it is much more important that China develop its domestic interest rate and other capital markets before it opens up completely the use of its currency.
Next year, 2016 promises to be a hugely historic moment for the world and China when China becomes the chair of the G20 in January. This is a chance for China to show that it is both capable and eager to take more global responsibility, consistent with its economic might. China should seek to lead the G20 by placing policies on the agenda that it would not face opposition from the rest of the world. In this regard, I am pursuing dialogue with friends and acquaintances in policy circles to suggest that China should place the topic of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) front and centre of that agenda. I am currently leading a Review for the UK Prime Minister to find a solution to this massive, global and shared problem and am eager for this challenge to be elevated to becoming a G20 issue. we are all heading to an environment where we are going to be resistant to antibiotics which will endanger the health of society around the world as we know desire including in hospital treatments as well as for common modern procedures.In a paper, my Review team published in December 2015, we showed that if not solved by 2050, there could be at least 10 million people dying a year, more than one million of which would be in China. We simultaneously showed that there could be a loss of an accumulated $100 trillion of global GDP, and that China and other leading emerging powers would be the most negatively affected. I cannot think of a more fitting development than for China to lead the world through its first G20 hosting and help us all avoid this unnecessary outcome.
In late 2001, I first used the phrase BRIC to discuss the likely rise of Brazil, Russia, India and China as growing shares of the world economy
Well, it's only fair to note that the rise of Brazil to become the dominant power of the 21st and 22nd Centuries was predicted in the 1940s by the SF/Fantasy author L. Sprague de Camp in his Viagens Interplanetarias tales.
I have seen the future, and it speaks Portuguese.
Brazil is very rich in resources but the average IQ of the Brazilian population is about 89 so I don't think it will be very competitive with China. The average IQ of the Indian population is about 84.
Going back to the late 19th and early 20th Century it was a widespread assumption that Argentina and Brazil would catch up rapidly with the US, the question was usually 'which one would be first?' The growth rates at the time for those two countries was very strong and it seemed the only difference between them and the US and Canada was that the latter had something of a head start, and an advantage in a shorter voyage to European markets.
In the early part of the twentieth century Argentina was one of the most prosperous countries in the world. Today it performs far under its potential.
The demographics of Brazil make it unlikely to become a First World country.
Brazil and Argentina were wealth extraction economies heavily slanted to the 1%. Even in the early 18th century, there was speculation about how great Brazil and Argentina would be, and European interests bought everything, threw the locals off the land, and expected to be rewarded by past growth rates turning into even greater success. The early 19th century U.S. didn't have dukes of NY and Barons of Boston ( I think I'm stealing from Bernard Cornwell), and the popular economic metrics of both Europe and slave states didn't quite grasp the rapidly growing U.S. When Adams was President, there were more French refugees from Haiti in Philadelphia than there were people in Philadelphia in 1776. The absence of gold crowns and Beamers didn't make the economic news of the day. There were 100,000 minutemen mobilized over Paul Revere's alarm system during the Lexington and Concord trouble. The princelings of South America might have had gold, but they could never have pulled off what a random silversmith did because the economies were so wildly divergent comparison is almost nonsensical.
Remember, we haven't felt inflation unless you spend more than 10% of your income on necessities.
Shane Mage
"Brazil is the country of the future–and it always will be" At least until the Amazon is completely dammed and the rainforest completely destroyed.
O'Neills arguments about urbanization as a driver for permagrowth in China are not rare. The arguments are true in the sense that China has still large growth potential based on urbanization metrics. Nevertheless, potential does't mean achievement. O'Neill avoids to mention that China's growth has lately relied on an unbalanced system that resulted in lots of credit being wasted on unproductive investments. Bad credit will be a drag on economic growth until it is resolved (as usual) and that is the main argument of those saying that economic growth will slow until the adjustments are finished and imbalances corrected.This post just ignores those arguments.
An obvious counter argument is that Latin America has urbanisation rates of 70% or higher (Brazil and Mexico have much higher rates), but it hasn't discernibly increased prosperity or growth. Apart from the obvious cause-effect issue, its not clear whether it is urbanisation per se which creates growth, but a particular qualitative aspect of urbanisation. Some cities are clearly far better at generating high productivity growth than others. In particular, innovate within large, connected cities seems to be a key for growth, but there isn't a lot of evidence that this applies to China.
jim Walton
Having recently returned from a trip to China, and having visited the first time in 1983, my thoughts
– progress has been amazing
– the one child policy was critical to this success
– the current level of mal investment is off the charts
– as long as there is liquidity the players will be able to keep dancing. The CCP has the ability to keep the liquidity flowing for longer than many predict, but not forever.
– the corruption crackdown is needed but is also undermining the way the economy was working.
– demographics are now working against china. Rapidly aging population.
– the only fuel left in the growth push is from debt (property or stock margins). All the other levers have been totally used up.
– by comparison though India and to a lesser extent Brazil are not even in the same ball park. They will always be laggards until a) population growth is curtailed and b) in India's case the caste system is worn away.
I'm not convinced by this argument. How is China going to escape it's property bubble and overcapacity bubble that has maintained it's growth over the last decade? How will China deal with labor and popular unrest? A lot of issues are left unresolved here. The author doesn't address any questions head on, but just says he might be biased against internalizing the arguments that China's economy shows signs of trouble. I do agree that China has a great deal of growth potential if they can manage the further urbanization of their citizenry and drive internal consumption. I have not seen strong evidence that this pivot to internal consumption is occurring successfully.
—How is China going to escape it's property bubble and overcapacity bubble
By increasing its urbanization rate from 50% to 70%. So unless the "property bubble" has created more then 260mn extra houses or over 40% more houses then the current stock China is fine.
—-How will China deal with labor and popular unrest?
Do you mean like the unrest that occurred in 1989 which was "worse" then it currently is?
—- I have not seen strong evidence that this pivot to internal consumption is occurring successfully.
I agree. Though I do not see a successful pivot that hard to accomplish. Policy wise its not hard for a government with has much power and control as China's to divert all its investments into property and infrastructure into consumer credits for consumers.
Fair Economist
Excess housing is a big problem in China. By this estimate they have 50 million empty houses right now. That's not 260, but it's a good chunk of it, and the problem is that now China can build only 200 million more houses in the remainder of its urbanization. That will be considerably slower that their current rate, and that means a substantial economic slowdown. There's an additional problem in that the built housing is substantially more deluxe than even a wealthier Chinese population can afford.
Heavy industry is even worse. China has more steel and concrete capacity than the entire world needs already, but they continue with industrial expansion. In all, their bubble is substantially worse than Japan's was, so the outcome will likely be worse than Japan's lost 25-and-still-counting years. I do expect the result will be like that and not an 1870 or 1930-style depression because governments can prevent crashes if they choose and the Chinese Communists will definitely choose to because they don't want to lose power.
" There's an additional problem in that the built housing is substantially more deluxe than even a wealthier Chinese population can afford."
I recently read they won't lower rents or prices to fill the empty RE – because it would then be obvious all the construction loans are no good and the banking system is obviously insolvent.
Ha. Best laid plans…
Overcapacity is off the scale. For instance, I read years ago that there are 300 ball bearing companies in China. More recently I've been looking at Chinese electric motors – the specs for the higher quality motors all say the motors use Japanese (NMB) ball bearings and Nippon lamination steel. Looks like China built a whole lotta whatever.
Code Name D
And this may also only be the start of the problem. I have read accounts where contractors are fully aware that these buildings would never be occupied when they were built. So they greatly cut back on needed water, power, sewer, and other vital infrastructure that would otherwise be needed to support such a population. Lack building codes may even mean that the buildings may not be able to long endure their environment, let alone full occupancy.
The upshot is that even if there was to be a decree giving these homes to average Chinese, full occupation can still not be supported. They didn't just make empty cities; they made cities that can not be completely occupied.
This must be the ultimate libertarian dream – profits without those pesky useless eaters.
They have worked 'hard, very hard' to prevent another 1989.
"Come and invest in this stable country. We have happy workers and help-hot-lines for unhappy workers."
China's "total wealth" is a mirage, dubious real estate ventures whose value is propped up entire by the rapid creation of new debt. It's a made up number, and simply dividing it across the whole population, per capita, does nothing to explain the country's gross income and wealth inequality, which might explain why domestic consumption has been stagnant there for quite some time. This reads like propaganda. If the PRC is doing so well governing the country and its economy, why are its elites doing everything they can to get money out as quickly as possible? It doesn't bode well when the very people in charge are going out of their way to get out now.
And the US wealth is not a mirage? 16.77 trillion in GDP backed by multiples of that in liabilities and who knows derivative exposure is not exactly a shining example of true wealth either. I think what you've mentioned about the elites fleeing is correct, but that's primarily because "the grass is always greener on the other side". Many people outside have a misunderstanding of what America is. When SHTF later here and everywhere else, such an attitude will change. I personally am more interested in what happens after the next economic collapse and I think China may surprise to the upside and the US to the downside.
Having spent a short time in China, in the late 80s, when there was a lot of building without a economic use is an old argument of some failed policy. I would suggest that China's only real problems seem to be the quality of its exports; which is normal for most new exporting countries. Then we have China making alliances around the world threw diplomacy and trade, and not interfering in other countries internal issues. China's biggest advantage seems to be its capacity to direct the counties development in smart ways.
Then we have China making alliances around the world threw diplomacy and trade, and not interfering in other countries internal issues
It was the same story in 1492.
China sent her Treasure Boats around the world for diplomacy and trade.
The West went around messing with locals' religions and other internal affairs.
But the Chinese Way has its cycles and it is not necessarily better. Just look at her neighbors – Annam, Champa, Ryukyu, Gogureo, Silla, The Land of Wa, Tibet, etc and how they fared in the last two, three thousand years.
The treasure boats of 1492 had more to ending the close society of China, and exploitation by the west.
This period of China was more about opium wars than trade an treaties with other countries.
"Direct maritime trade between Europe and China began in 1557 when the Portuguese leased an outpost at Macau. Other European nations soon followed the Portuguese lead, inserting themselves into the existing Asian maritime trade network to compete with Arab, Chinese, Indian, and Japanese traders in intra-regional trade.[6] Mercantilist governments in Europe objected to the perpetual drain of silver to pay for Asian commodities, and so European traders often sought to generate profits from intra-regional Asian trade to pay for their purchases to be sent back home.[6]"
This article does seem anxious to cherry pick data which suits the thesis. While I would agree that some of the doomsayers about China overstate their case, mostly I think because the CCP have shown exceptional skill at anticipating and avoiding road bumps, it is clear that the current model of growth in China has run out of steam. Given the enormous debt load, a gentle landing is just not possible – high growth is essential to keep the innumerable ponzi schemes within the economy going. The only hope to avoid a very serious crash and possible stagnation is a rapid transition to a consumer based economy – Michael Pettis in his excellent blog sets out the steps required in a well argued manner. Its pretty clear that the CCP understands the challenges. The question is whether the debt load is just too great to be manageable, or put another way, there are just too many investments which will never generate sufficient to pay off the costs. There is also the question about whether China's own oligarchs have become so powerful that they can stop any meaningful radical change.
The current leadership is clearly engaging on a dual strategy of tightening up on dissent internally and externally, while seeking to pacify the population as a whole through populist anti-corruption and anti-pollution measures – they clearly see a bumpy ride ahead. I wouldn't underestimate their capacity to do it. However, it is a gigantic challenge – historically most countries have fallen at the final hurdle of turning rapid industrialisation/development into long term stable sustainable growth. The stakes are so high for China because of the sheer scale of the country.
Nah. China is gonna become the next Japan – 'cept 10 times bigger!!!!!
I did wonder at the optimism of this article. A recent post by Steve Keen shows the private sector debt to GDP ratio for China and it was astonishingly large and has grown very quickly since GFC. Higher than the US's private sector debt to GDP ratio prior to the Credit Crunch. Keen has argued that extremely high levels of private sector debt to GDP precede a financial crisis especially when the change in debt turns negative. http://static1.squarespace.com/static/52c4c212e4b019e1bba20f52/t/54b4ed4ee4b0b491c39819b8/1421143374162/Final+Outlook+0115+x.pdf
People like to compare China and Japan, but the mindset is different I think. The Chinese seems to have an inexhaustible desire to make money so yeah things would collapse, but I think they'll bounce quickly. Whereas the younger Japanese generation seems content to having less than the previous generation. There are pros and cons to both attitudes, but people thinking that China would have a hard landing and then simply slumber again would be wrong.
Jim Haygood
Japan's group mentality is like a human beehive. There, prestige is associated with careers in government and at blue-chip corporate employers. Entrepreneurialism and risk-taking, which inherently involve some questioning of the status quo, are not highly valued.
For better or worse, the Chinese are more individualistic. The family is the basic unit of society. Expatriated Chinese constitute a significant merchant class in countries such as Thailand and Malaysia; Japanese don't.
Japan's island culture produced an insularity different from elsewhere in Asia. It seemed to be invincible from the 1950s through the 1980s. Then it was as if the lights went out. Japan's mismanagement of the Fukushima disaster gives the impression of a culture that doesn't cope effectively with unwelcome surprises.
Beehive? I have been told that one way to understand Japan is to think of a small village in which everyone knows everybody and no one can ever move away.
That doesn't explain how a new frontier town like Edo became populous after the establishment of the Tokugawa shogunate.
Many villagers must have moved there.
I agree.
Already China is bumping into energy, water, food production, and severe pollution limits. There are no even reasonably doable solutions to these problems – and they are foundations of the Chinese low cost "biz model".
Sure China is much more entrepreneurial than the Japan Hive – but the entrepreneurs that win big want to be oligarchs next. We have yet to see if that really fits in with the PRC philosophy.
Then we do seem to have a zero sum world with real constraints, and I have difficulty believing that in the end that the US, Japan and Germany will hand over their share of global GDP to China. The combined population of the US, Japan and Germany is about 600 million. China – 1.1 billion. China may have to hoover up a few more countries as well, if we are going to stick with the "industrial growth is everything" philosophy of the last couple hundred years.
Jim Haygood
As with oligarchy throughout history, their objective is to exercise control behind the scenes, without appearing to have any formal control at all.
Power without accountability: when confronted by a mob, one protests 'Who, ME? I'm a nobody.'
These appraisals of emerging (really exploding) economies is strange. We are still looking at them (and ourselves) through the lens of GDP? Particularly China, an economy that is as fully production side as the mythical free market facade will allow. Technically they should always have positive GDP if they played the game correctly unless/until we go extinct in the process. Theirs is a growth for the sake of growth much as we are. I think we are all mature enough in our understanding of environmental and social problems to know that GDP is a terrible appraisal of economic health. Worse still, along the lines of environmental issues, we are now considering raising GDP by investing in geo-engineering projects to mitigate increased CO2 levels and forestall the oceans encroachment on coastal cities. WRT ecology and our meddling with it shouldn't we be following the less is more strategy by this point? I'm imagining China boosting GDP in 25 years with a massive government directed coastal reclamation project along its major cities to prevent them being inundated. Ultimately my critique is, GDP contains absolutely no context. It can only encapsulate its catastrophes and externalities in future GDP and often, as history shows, destruction provides wonderful room for "growth". Therefore, lessons are never learned. GDP down get it back up, again and again, no matter how. A GDP centered system of thinking is nihilistic with the sole exception of the fetish of numerical surplus. The article was on for one tiny paragraph about the "quality of growth" (really this should be the focus).
I feel the more important questions surrounding China (or any economy) are: Where are they growing or what is growing? What are the ecological consequences? What are the consequences in terms of resource consumption? Does this growth improve the quality of life over the numerical quantity of Capital or the velocity of Capital ? It is long overdue for us to get our heads out of 19th and 20th century economic concepts of space and resources. We don't have another Earth waiting on deck and we aren't playing a board game.
My understanding is that commercial space for all these urbanizing folks has already been built, so there's a load off.
This made me think of a great Stevie Wonder album called Talking Book.
Shane Mage
GDP growth figures always grossly overstate real growth, because they never, ever, correct for the ecologically and environmentally destructive damage inflicted by the process of output-growth itself; while moreover counting as "Product" the activities needed to (very partially) compensate for that devastation. This is overwhelmingly true of Chinese "growth" figures. If the health effects of coal-fueled electricity, the environmental effects of the Four Gorges Dam, and the vast number of smaller-scale ecological atrocities all across China were accounted for the Chinese growth-rate would be revealed to be far less than claimed, perhaps even minuscule or negative!
Jim Haygood
Japan has covered about 60% of its extensive coastline with concrete tetrapods. These produced plenty of revenue for construction companies. But do they have any net value at all? Among other things, tetrapods destroy any aesthetic appeal for tourism. Not that Japan really wants too many gaijin nosing around, anyway.
Here's a photo posted by a true believer in Okinawa, who thinks the tetrapods are 'quite important.'
A case can be made, for the true believers, that is, that ghost cities are built to placate ghosts, so that they don't wander and harm living beings.
It's an extension of the belief to burn paper money for the dearly departed.
Now, they, too, have a place to live and enjoy the prosperity of New China.
China's sheer size, in both population and area, make it inevitable that it will be a very large factor in the world economy.
The question remains, what kind of factor? I've long thought their pre-eminence was shaky, because of fundamental factors that I admit are pretty theoretical: essentially, because their population is so large, they have very little margin over basic necessities. To clarify, contrast with the US: in stealing most of a continent, the US put a relatively sparse population in possession of enormous resources. That ratio is what fed both our prosperity and our international power. That, and lucky timing: the US rose just as the fossil fuel bonanza was playing out. China is not so lucky on the timing, and they don't have the huge ratio of resources to people.
Does that actually matter? I'm not at all sure. However, it's noteworthy that their current prosperity is driven almost entirely by low-cost manufacture for export. They're using their huge labor force in a way that puts the least strain on their own resources. What happens when those resources nonetheless reach their limits – or the population becomes restive?
Of course, that's pretty much the global condition at this point. But I would assume that China's economy is more fragile than it appears.
China's bronze making was world class during the second and first millennia BC, i.e. during the Shang and the Zhou dynasties. Beautiful objects and weapons, like the cross bow, which did not appear in the West a thousand years later, were mass produced. They had bamboo pipes to pump air into deep mines.
They were good, perhaps too, er, efficient.
Then, they ran out of the stuff for making bronze and you don't see many in later dynasties, like the Tang and Song dynasties.
But maybe this time, it's different. This time, they have the world's copper and iron ore supplies to back them up, thanks to international trade.
growing shares of a shrinking economy…
You have to send your kids to school with the ability to read, write and add, because schools teach at the rate of the slowest legacy kids, enforced by best practice, best is the enemy of better, arbitrary equality and affirmative action. And you will see the same thing in any corporation, regardless of the dress mythology, dissonance squared. The Shark Tank is a stupid TV program, reinforcing the idiocracy that labor requires financial capital, money printed by a bank.
You will also see the same distribution among highly paid consultants. Taking the dress off and reorganizing the process to increase productivity, to grow the sandbox, is the relatively easy part. Putting that dress back on and connecting it back to the system so everyone's lives are not disrupted, anxiety increasing economic inertia, is the hard part, given that the empire is a closed system with positive feedback 'control'. If you want order, begin with disorder. If you want to blow something up, begin with order.
It's always a spacetime problem, inside a problemsolution. Speed assumes that distance and time are separate entities, instead of a construct in your mind, just as corporations conveniently assume that revenue and cost, risk and reward, are unrelated. That's money. The critters want Maglev and can't produce it, because they cannot tolerate change. Make commercial loans or don't; they make no difference in the decisions of labor, but they greatly affect capital, make-work finance.
Apple, Qualcomm & Google are shrinking the economy, inflating the G component, with the proliferation of disposable surveillance toys, not that they fully comprehend their actions. If you look at their HR policies, you will see that they are the policies of a herd. Samsung is just more efficient, as is Chinese Communism, as a monetary function.
susan the other
just an observation. The question for me is simple. Should countries like China and India and several other smaller countries who all have maximum populations be allowed to expand their economies to meet the needs of a population that cannot be stabilized? Is this a Nazi thing? Or is this pure reason? And take this to the world level: should all countries adjust their growth to meet a certain level of population, but no higher? And then, what does this steady-state population planet have for a sustainable economy going forward for however long?
Apple, Qualcomm & Google are shrinking the economy, with the proliferation of disposable surveillance toys, not that they fully comprehend their actions. If you look at their HR policies, you will see that they are the policies of a herd. Samsung is just more efficient, as is Chinese Communism, at printing and laundering paper.
Sorry, not buying the China permabull junk. China has built up a corporate and private debt situation that is actually worse than the US. Imagine that for a second. WORSE than the US and it isn't even a fully developed country. Secondly, it faces a far worse demographic situtation than the US. It's actually precisely where Japan was in 1990. If anything, China faces a terrible repeat of what has happened in Japan since 1990 if it doesn't take drastic action right now including the full rescinding of the one-child policy and serious political reform to tackle the power of vested interests.
How shocking that the previous chairman of GSAM would have such opinions. Perhaps we can have an article written by a former DNC/RNC chairman explaining how representative democracy is still alive and well.
Chauncey Gardiner
Appreciated this link from reader "backwards evolution" and his related comments to NC's related post of March 21, 2015. Rather than the view of a former Goldman exec who may not have skin in the game other than through his invention of the BRICS (and "PIGS") acronyms, and pride-of-authorship, I'll go with the in-country contra opinion of Anne Stevenson-Yang of J Capital from the 4:00 minute mark to 28:00 minutes mark of this clip:
Also wonder what these folks might have to say:
Kicking the USG/UK out seems critical to prosperity and growth. Africa and the Middle East is what Latin America and/or East and Southeast Asia would look like if they hadn't evicted them.


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