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Morning Minutes: Oct. 22
Staff Writer
Journal Star
Word of the Day
trepan trih-PAN (noun) a person who ensnares or entraps others; a stratagem; a trap. (verb) to ensnare or entrap; to entice; to cheat or swindle. — www.dictionary.com
Website of the Day
Software geek? Get help building it with Assembla.
Number to Know
3,200: On this date in 1797, André-Jacques Garnerin made the first recorded parachute jump 1,000 meters (3,200 feet) above Paris.
This Day in History
Oct. 22, 1964: Jean-Paul Sartre is awarded the Nobel Prize for Literature, but turns down the honor.
Today's Featured Birthday
Drummer Zac Hanson (28)
Daily Quote
"Happiness is like a kiss. You must share it to enjoy it." — Bernard Meltzer


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Scratching An Ankle Is Hard To Beat
There are few more sybaritic pleasures than scratching an itch.
But according to a study just out in the British Journal of Dermatology, the intensity of the scratching delight varies with the location of the itch.
The research team was lead by Gil Yosipovitch, a man described as the "Godfather of itch." He and his colleagues at Wake Forest School of Medicine recruited 18 brave souls to take part in their study.
To induce itch, the researchers rubbed their subjects' skin with approximately 40 cowhage spicules. Just in case you're not familiar with cowhage spicules, they are tiny threads taken from a tropical legume.
OK, that's not really very helpful. Just take it on faith that when applied to a human's skin, cowhage spicules reliably induce intense itching.
Subjects didn't get to scratch their own itch. That would induce too much variability into the experimental design. Instead, the researchers rubbed their subjects' spicule-induced itches with a Medi-Pak 7-inch cytology brush (item #24–2199, General Medical Corp., Elkridge, Md.).
Probably not as satisfying as scratching with a nice sharp fingernail, but more reproducible.
The researchers tested the itch-scratch response at three sites: back, forearm and ankle. Turns out scratching the ankle produced a more pleasurable itch relief than the other two locations.
Now before you shake your head in wonderment that the researchers chose the back, ankle and forearm to make their measurements, be reassured that this is just the start. "Future studies," they write, "could also examine the scratching pleasurability associated with other itchy areas such as the scalp or the anogenital region." OK.
Whatever else they learn, the Wake Forest researchers have proven one thing: every itch has its niche.
Copyright 2021 NPR. To see more, visit https://www.npr.org.

subset: commoncrawl


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There's a sound that swells to the listening sky, and breaks, and swells again
A sound to the April breezes blown of a host of marching men;
And the people's hearts lift up to hear, and the city's gates swing wide
To the tramp of twenty thousand strong, the beat of a tawny tide.
They come, they come with the throbbing drum! Let the glad word be known.
Fling the flags to the four free winds, and greet New England's Own!
These were the eager-hearted ones when first the bugles blew;
The clean north winds had swept their souls before the war-flags flew.
They set their faces like the flint of the old north country hills;
They pledged their manhood without stint, and their young, intrepid wills.
They did not stay for the perilous way. Forward! their cry was thrown;
Stout hearts might well have faltered then — but not New England's Own!
They caught the spurt of the first red stars that flamed the battle sign;
They gave their bodies as iron bars to weld the battle line;
Aisne-Marne, Chavignon, St. Mihiel, Meuse-Argonne east and west
The old strange names, familiar now as heart-beats in each breast,
And keen with memories of those they left to sleep alone,
Dust to dust in an alien land, yet still New England's Own.
They dreamed the dreams of peace and youth, but when the storm was rife
They counted comfort less than truth and honor more than life.
Each with his starry flag above, his weapon in his hand,
Fought for earth's liberty, and love, and his own dear native land;
Walked blindly in the smoking ways, that the light his eyes had known
Might never perish from the shore that sent New England's Own.
There's a sound that swells in the April air till it shakes the market-place
The tread of a host of marching men who have looked death in the face;
Who have staggered back from the brink of hell to find the world still sweet
And the dust of God's own country gray once more upon their feet.
They come, they come with the throbbing drum! Let the high flag be flown
The flag they shed their blood to keep, and kept — New England's Own!
by Nancy Byrd Turner, 1919


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text:
Front Runners List: Click to see list completion progress by climbers that log their climbs using Peakbagger.com.
Multiple Ascents Grid: Click for a grid showing all of Oleta Piecuch's ascents of peaks on this list (including up to 10 rounds of repeats).
Compare Climbers: Click to compare ascents of up to 5 climbers working on this list.
There are a number of lists that show the highest peaks in Australia, often with a cutoff after the ten highest. This list, however, was modeled after the many worldwide threshold lists that use a round-number elevation cutoff. Here, 2000 meters is a very nice round number that provides a list of 15 summits that crown the Australian continent.
A prominence cutoff of 60 meters was chosen because a) it seemed about right for this list, and b) the 1:50,000 contour maps of the area have 20 meter contours, so it made sense to use a multiple of 20. Sixty meters is about 200 feet, which is similar to prominence cutoffs used for lists covering similar terrain in the eastern USA.
The peaks on this list are all relatively easy hikes or scrambles, and it is entirely possible to do several of these peaks in a single day. They are all clustered closely together in or near the Snowy Mountains.
Thanks to Scott Cockrell for suggesting this list and providing the links to the "Austrailia 10" sites.
= Peaks climbed by Oleta Piecuch = Unclimbed peaks
This page has been served 1523897 times since 2004-11-01.


text:
Girl Sh-t Is The Best Sh-t.
It's the running theme of this blog. It's the founding principle of Gossip. Girl Sh-t Is The Best Sh-t, in all its various permutations. And we have several of them happening concurrently here:
- Mega Ego Attention Whore vs Mega Ego Attention Whore
- Veteran vs New Jack
- (Fake) High Class vs Hustler
If you haven't already, please enjoy this beautiful thing -- Nicki Minaj losing it on Mimi yesterday during Idol auditions:
How many times have you watched this? If it's only once it's not enough. Go back and click play all over again and this time, just focus on Keith Urban hating his life. Then watch it a third time and let your ears find Mimi's voice. Because it's there. And at one point, my favourite, favourite, favourite point, she starts moaning...
Like Nancy Kerrigan!
This is going to make me happy for weeks.
As for whether or not it's legit -- I hear you, because so much is so fake in Hollywood, it's almost the default assumption these days that any given situation must be staged. Three things though:
- Idol producers had to call off yesterday's auditions which means MONEY. Set-ups only work if they happen for free. Production delays are never, ever free.
- In Mimi's mind, how does this help her? I know how it helps her in MY mind, because Mimi throwing down is the only television I want to see, but in HER mind, you think she wants to come out like a hair pulling cunt who gets screeched at by a cartoon-dressing interloper disrespecting her legend? I can't see it.
And finally, most importantly...
If you know your girl sh-t, if you've seen some girl sh-t go down in your time, does this smell like fake girl sh-t to you? I was raised on girl sh-t. Like pure Hong Kong styles girl sh-t around a mah-jong table. And if this is a fraud, it's some real high end counterfeit, like better than any imitation LV bag you can find in Shenzhen.


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This week's post has absolutely nothing to do with writing. But, over at the Scribes, the fabulous Lisa Kessler is my guest. She's talking about prequels.
As long as I can remember, I've had a soft spot for squirrels. Since my dog died last year they've gone virtually unopposed in the backyard. This summer I got the idea to start feeding them separately so maybe they'd leave the bird feeders alone. And I think they are really cute.
My plan sort of worked. Every day, they visit my back door looking for peanuts. I know there are people out there who can't stand the furry little guys, but I'm not in that camp.
Younger son immediately got on board. He loves all the creatures great and small, including this cute chipmunk (we have three regular visitors).
Older son scoffed until the first squirrel came up to him looking for peanuts. He too became smitten by their cuteness. I think the cats are secretly hoping that one of them will come a little bit closer.
Now I have a few who like to hang around on my screen door. For those wondering, none of us try to hand feed the little beasts. We all understand that, while squirrels are cute, they are still wild animals and should be treated as such.
Yep. Just call me the crazy squirrel lady!


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Do blondes really have more
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Brunettes are the most preferred job candidates! Often they are seen as good, smart and reliable.
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Black-haired women are considered to be experts in
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Will your hair color affect your mood or your personality? Scientists believe it can because it also affects how others perceive you.
Blondes attract more attention than other hair colors because their hari color is more eye-catching. All this extra attention for someone switching to blonde can be a bit addictive, and for shyer people, even a bit overwhelming.
Women who go brunette are often perceived as being more serious or book-smart. If you want to be taen more seriously, go brunette.
If you want to ensure you stand out in a crowd, go to shades of red. Red hair says you want to be seen and noticed. Redheads are seen as bubbly, energetic, sexy, and bold, certainly not wallflowers.
If you want to avoid dramatic changes in how people perceive
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text:
Behind The Song: Jack White "Freedom At 21"
While the mention of Jack White typically elicits visions of blistering guitar lines and dusty blues, the Detroit-native also boasts a far less obvious influence: the band KISS.
Where KISS produced a myriad of products and promotional opportunities ranging from comic books to TV movies, White uses a similar approach to promoting music including his novel and inventive way of his launching solo single "Freedom at 21" -- literally. The song is nominated for Best Rock Song at the 55th GRAMMY Awards. That is just one of three GRAMMY nods White received for 2013. His solo debut full-length, Blunderbuss, up for both Best Rock Album and a coveted Album of the Year nomination.
On April 1, 2012, Jack White and the staff of his independent label, Third Man Records, attached 1000 copies of "Freedom at 21" flexi-disc records to helium balloons and sent them into the sky from the label's Nashville headquarters. They used biodegradable latex balloons and all-natural twine.
Along with the record, the balloons were accompanied with instructive postcards to anyone finding the rock & roll cargo to submit photos, date and discovery location back to the label.
The balloon launch, however, was just the beginning. What really propelled "Freedom at 21" into public consciousness was the turbo-charged music video which was drenched in blue, the official "color palette" of Blunderbuss, and filmed by notorious hip-hop video director Hype Williams.
"Jack's been a fan of Hype's for a long time," said Ben Swank, promotions director for Third Man Records. "I think the vibe and feel of this song felt like the right one to try and work with Hype on and see what he came up with. There's a real percussive quality to Hype's videos that sits well with 'Freedom At 21'."
Featuring White behind the wheel of a 1970 HEMI Barracuda muscle car in a high-speed police chase, the sexy clip was also a star turn for female lead Brittany Columbo. She made headlines playing the comely cop who takes the guitar hero to the slammer. The video also boasts a cameo from Queens of the Stone Age frontman Josh Homme, who plays a cop.
"Josh Homme should be in every video," raved Swank.
With help from adoring program directors, the single, "Freedom at 21" quickly made its way to #21 on the Mediabase Alternative Rock radio chart. "The video was genius," explains Lisa Worden, Music Director at Los Angeles alternative rock behemoth KROQ-FM. "It was the first component, marketing-wise for that song. The label put the video out there and everyone flipped. It was already a good song, and the video just gave it a personality and a face and I just went 'wow,' I get it even more."
Worden continued, "There are some artists that have to work the system. They have to tweet.. Jack White doesn't tweet. They're all over social media and that's fine, God bless 'em, but Jack White doesn't need to do that. His art speaks for itself."
-Scott T. Sterling, CBS Local
for more features.


text:
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
So dizzy - Making sense of a whole new game
(And to the lady standing beside the ride who became the victim of our overexuberance, we want to let you know that all these decades later, we still feel bad.)
Overextended analogies aside: Alex Anthopoulos is playing his game at a higher level than we comprehend at the moment. His modus operandi does not seem to orient around "see player, get player" or "get budget, spend budget" in the same way as his predecessor or his contemporaries. Anthopoulos truly seems to be balancing out undervalued player assets versus contracts, potential arbitration outcomes, and future compensatory picks. It's a longer game with many more moving parts than we're used to, and it makes us a bit uncomfortable to try to assess what he's done.
To wit: We actually would prefer Mike Napoli over Frank Francisco next year. And that's mostly to do with a salary/contract agnostic point of view, where we just think in terms of a playground pick and figure: "We'll take Napoli."
Moreover, given what Napoli could contribute to the team's offense, his contract status over the next couple of years and the abundance of right-handed arms in the Jays pen, it only makes sense to us that you'd rather go into the season with him over Frankie.
But given how astute some of Anthopoulos' deals over the past year have been, and how much foresight seems to have gone into the acquisitions of Alex Gonzalez (and then Yunel Escobar), John Buck (and the pick he'll bring back) and others, we're finding it harder to pass judgment on them. And with this Frankie Francisco deal, we know that there's an aspect that we just haven't thought through yet that makes it make sense.
For someone who is opinionated and more than willing to broadcast his opinion on just about any baseball topic, it's a maddening state of affairs.
27 comments:
- James Fireman said...
Totally agreed. It has come to the point where I trust AA so implicitly that my first reaction is that it must be a good move, and then I work backwards from there. He has earned himself an awful lot of latitude.
- January 26, 2011 at 12:00 PM
I just wonder if Napoli approached AA and asked to not come to Toronto. And AA did his best to get something that he wanted in return. I don`t think anyone has brought that up yet.
- January 26, 2011 at 12:07 PM
- Tao of Stieb said...
Yeah...For me, I wouldn't want to say that I trust him implicitly, but I don't trust myself to be nearly as smart as he is.
I think in his first few months, I had this condescending thing where I took him to be an eager, Reach for the Top contestant keener who was likable and would carry the company line.
He's kinda blowing my mind right now.
- January 26, 2011 at 12:07 PM
- Navin V. said...
The benefit of the doubt is certainly AA's. He's earned it. Is it possible the Jays have acquired a true closer, one who'll be around for a few years? The way Anthopoulos is talking, he'd had his eyes on Francisco for a while. And AA gets what he wants.
- January 26, 2011 at 12:08 PM
- The Ack said...
Boom, you nailed it, that's it exactly.
It's frustrating (and maybe a little bit embarrassing) to almost be forced into just trusting the process and run the risk of being labeled a blind AA fanboy.
But here's the thing - out of his own mouth, he's not just thinking one or two steps ahead, he's thinking five or six. So how do you assess one move on a stand-alone basis given the longview justification presented?
- January 26, 2011 at 12:09 PM
- Tao of Stieb said...
That's exactly it. I know that I don't even know some of the factor that he's weighing into his equation.
I feel like a Jays Talk caller.
- January 26, 2011 at 12:11 PM
- William J. Tasker said...
Part of the dizzyness is not knowing the endgame yet. It's like you are watching two guys play chess in the park. One guy is making a flurry of moves, but until he says, "Checkmate!" you don't know if he is a genius. Only hindsight in about five years is going to tell us that.
- January 26, 2011 at 12:25 PM
- The Ack said...
Read a great analogy on an MLBTR thread (which I'm about to steal) - so if you are reading this, commenter, kudos:
AA is like that dude who started out trading a paperclip on craigslist (or whereverthefuck) and eventually ended up with a house.
At least that's what I want to believe. And will, until proven otherwise.
- January 26, 2011 at 12:39 PM
Milledge, Milledge, Milledge.
AA.....please give Lastings Milledge a shot. What is there to lose???!!!???!!!
- January 26, 2011 at 12:49 PM
- Navin V. said...
I'm officially a blind AA fanboy. And I'm okay with that.
- January 26, 2011 at 1:22 PM
- Tao of Stieb said...
I love that: "Blind Fanboys". Imma steal it from you.
- January 26, 2011 at 2:18 PM
No way AA didn't have that planned before he pulled the trigger on the Wells trade. So forget the Napoli didn't want to come here stuff. And they now have too many of the same righthander in the pen, so there's probably another move coming. I've started to look at what other information you get from him instead of hoping to guess (or hear through MLBTR) his next move. He was on the FAN the day before the Wells trade and said he'd just got off the phone with Aaron Hill. Looking at it in reverse, it's likely he was talking to him about Wells (as Hill is his lockermate and close friend). That tells me the two are fairly tight, and that AA is probably inclined to take all of Hill's options March 31 unless Hill gives him a reason not to. That's a guess, but I bet it happens. After the Napoli trade, he said he expects both Lind and E3 to play "every day, at DH or first." Moving Napoli this quickly also suggests they're less worried about JPA at catcher than most other people. And the fact he hasn't approached J Bau AT ALL about a contract extension (and Anthopolous is a guy who talks in his sleep) also tells you something (he does not see 54 homers and 120 RBIs being the standard for this player, so he has no intention of paying him on that basis until he has to). It's absolutely the right move to take him to arbitration, esp given Bautista seems like he's the type to take it in stride.
- January 26, 2011 at 2:52 PM
I just had a sudden flashback to Jan Tennant. Nice reference to Reach for the Top.
- January 26, 2011 at 3:53 PM
Did anyone notice that he did not include Frasor in the closer competition when he was on the Fan yesterday after acquiring Francisco. This was most definitely a pre-cursor to a Frasor trade.
- January 26, 2011 at 5:48 PM
- Darren Priest said...
Maybe someday the Jays will win a world series under Alex Ant's leadership and then Michael Lewis will write a book about it. I will buy that book as soon as it hits book stands and fap to it like a Penthouse letter.
- January 26, 2011 at 7:49 PM
- David said...
Alright so let's try to look 5-6 moves ahead.
1. Francisco becomes the "C"loser for this team.
2. Napoli heads to Texas to DH
3. Francisco gets himself a tidy save total somewhere let's say between 38-45 earning Type A status.
4. Napoli has his usual good year at the plate and mashes lefties like a demon. He plays nearly everyday at DH and is no longer viewed as a viable catching option thus reduce=ing his value.
5. Francisco gets offered Arbitration and his options are stay on as a reasonably priced closer or test the FA market and net the team 2 picks.
6. Napoli now has an Arb number of ~6M and plenty of leverage. The Jays however have the flexibility to sign FA bat Y for the going rate of 2-5M instead.
So now were 6 moves ahead and we have 1. a viable closer or 2 high picks. 2. an overpaid DH which side do you want?
I still have no idea how to use 12 arms in the pen but since when is depth a bad thing?
- January 26, 2011 at 8:02 PM
- Gil Fisher said...
Nice work, David.
I think FF is an AA pick-play.
I think Frasor will be released with six weeks severence before the Ides of March and catch on somewhere else for less than $1m.
I think our free agents will be reluctant to accept arb next year.
- January 26, 2011 at 10:50 PM
- Ian Hunter said...
Anon at 3:53pm, I noticed that as well. Frasor wasn't even in the conversation when AA was talking about the closer competition. Does that mean Frasor is on the move or he's just relegated to late-inning relief?
- January 27, 2011 at 10:16 AM
Frasor is too tough on himself to be a closer, and the other three have all saved 25 plus games in the recent past. I wouldn't mention him in the conversation either.
- January 27, 2011 at 11:16 AM
Uhhh...I hope this isn't too off -topic. When the dust clears, is Rajah Davis the Jays only cf option? I'm an A's fan (from the crib- and don't be telling me there's ever been a worse trade in history than Siebern for Maris),I've seen a fair bit of Rajah and he seems a decent likeable fellow,but you can't have him out there everyday, can you?
- January 28, 2011 at 6:46 PM
Here's the thing on Francisco, he's very good against left handers, so he's not just another right hander..2nd, he was an grade A free agent this year-just like Fraser, so he could bring potentially two picks...But I'm with you, AA has certainly earned our trust, he is doing a phenomenal job.......For Bruce..Davis is holding CF warm until Gose is ready
- January 28, 2011 at 8:21 PM
Is Sizemore the kind of high ceiling reclamation project AA might go for?
- January 29, 2011 at 8:35 AM
Thanx gsjays...BTW, I really enjoy the blog and the forum..
- January 30, 2011 at 8:01 AM
Just need to clone AA for the Leafs and Raptors, and we're set...
- January 31, 2011 at 11:45 AM
- Archives, Card. said...
Franky is great against lefties, and more importantly, let this situation play out in your head:
When was the last time a bubble team traded for a catcher/dh at the deadline? Now, when was the last time a bubble team traded for a reliever?
Every year, relief arms command such a high price that it makes sense to stack up on them if you plan on being mediocre. Teams always want relievers and always overpay.
Alex isn't thinking six moves ahead. he's thinking six months ahead.
- January 31, 2011 at 3:07 PM
- Hgh Supplements said...
The head is spinning like it hasn't since that unfortunate incident with the teacups ride back when we were nine. This makes sense of a whole new game with Overextended analogies aside.
- February 1, 2011 at 2:05 AM
Seems the Angels GM is claiming AA sent $5mil per year along with Wells, so they got a $17mil/yr for middle of order CF. Does this make it such a one sided trade?
- February 3, 2011 at 1:40 PM


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While opponents of fracking are pleased at a report that Gov. Andrew Cuomo will wait for a Pennsylvania health study before deciding whether to allow drilling, landowners are preparing to sue New York over lost gas-leasing opportunities and an industry group warned Sunday that a business exodus from the state will worsen.
The Associated Press reported Saturday that Cuomo came close to approving a limited drilling plan for as many as 40 shale gas wells last month before environmentalist and former brother-in-law Robert Kennedy Jr. helped persuade him to await a new study, which could delay a decision for up to a year or longer.
Cuomo is expected to announce a formal decision after the Department of Environmental Conservation completes its 5-year environmental impact study, but that decision has already been delayed twice. DEC Commissioner Joe Martens has said that study will be finished after Health Commissioner Nirav Shah makes recommendations based on his own review, which will include a look at the new $1 million Geisinger Health System study launched recently in Pennsylvania.
Unlike most studies funded by advocates or opponents of hydraulic fracturing, the Geisinger study would be funded by the Sunbury, Pa.-based Degenstein Foundation, which is not seen as having an ideological bent.
"I think it will be pivotal," Kennedy told the AP. Preliminary results are expected within the year, but final conclusions could be years off. The study will look at health histories of hundreds of thousands of patients who live near gas wells and other facilities producing natural gas from the same Marcellus Shale formation that New York would tap.
New York has had a moratorium since 2008 on horizontal drilling and high-volume hydraulic fracturing, which frees natural gas from shale by injecting a well with chemically treated water and sand at enormous pressure. Other states in the gas-rich Marcellus Shale formation have seen local economies boom as drilling rigs have sprouted up.
Jim Smith of the Independent Oil and Gas Association of New York said Sunday that permit applications for conventional vertical gas wells, which are still allowed in the state but are less profitable than the far-larger shale gas wells, have dropped from about 600 in 2008 to below 200 in 2012 as the industry has moved to other states.
"For business owners, the opportunity is not here in New York," Smith said. "We can assume the exodus we're seeing now will continue" if the moratorium remains until results of the Geisinger study are in, he said.
"We're continuing to trust that the decision will be based on science," Smith said. "There's no scientific reason at all to continue these delays."
John Armstrong of New Yorkers Against Fracking, a statewide coalition of health and environmental groups, said "it's a great sign" that Cuomo reportedly is waiting for health study results before making a decision on fracking. But the Geisinger study won't be enough to satisfy the demands of his group, he said.
"Geisinger and other studies have the potential to give us some important data, but we also need to look at concerns specific to New York state," Armstrong said. "We're asking for a comprehensive health impact assessment," which would include participation by the state's medical community as well as the public, he said. "We're also calling for a study of social and economic impacts."
Landowners hoping to lease to gas-drilling companies and earn royalties on gas production are preparing a lawsuit against the state because of the moratorium. The lawsuit will allege that the state has taken property rights in violation of the state and federal constitutions, said Scott Kurkoski, a lawyer representing the Joint Landowners Coalition of New York.
"While our nation's leaders bring us closer than ever to achieving energy independence, cleaner air and economic prosperity, New York threatens to impede our progress and deny the constitutionally guaranteed rights of New York landowners," Kurkoski said in a statement, citing comments from President Barack Obama and New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg in support of natural gas.


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FX Plans 2nd Season Of 'Fargo' TV Show
BEVERLY HILLS, Calif. (AP) — FX is taking another trip to "Fargo," where the cast is changing but some of the characters are not.
The network announced Monday that it has renewed the series for a second season with new actors, time period and crime.
Executive Producer Noah Hawley told a TV Critics' panel that season two will be set primarily in North Dakota in 1979 with a younger version of the Lou Solverson character (played by Keith Carradine in season one.) His daughter, Molly, who Allison Tolman portrayed, is just 4 years old.
Hawley said he's open to changing the weather and is toying with starting the story in the winter and transitioning to spring and summer. Part of the season will be set in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, and Luverne, Minnesota.
The earliest the series will air is fall 2015.
Hawley said it would be easier to tap the same actors to return, but he's committed to making "Fargo" an anthology.
FX CEO John Landgraf said that while he thinks casting an Oscar-winning actor like Billy Bob Thornton helped attract viewers, he's not sure that it's necessary for season two.
Landgraf noted that Tolman, who began the series as an unknown actress, now has an Emmy nomination.
"We needed Billy Bob Thornton, but now the show, the title, the tone, the writing ... are the star of that show," Landgraf said.
Landgraf compared "Fargo," which also starred Martin Freeman, to HBO's "True Detective," saying the latter "is gonna have to prove that it's more than just a vehicle for movie stars." Hawley has "already proven he can write something really great," Landgraf said.
"Fargo" has earned 18 Emmy nominations. It was based on the 1996 Coen brothers' movie.
(© Copyright 2014 The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.)
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General discussion about BMWs from rants to raves. Looking for repair and body shops.
Separate names with a comma.
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New 2014 ChevroletCruze Sedan
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Search: Origin No place, unknown, or undetermined Remove constraint Origin: No place, unknown, or undetermined Repository Francis A. Countway Library of Medicine Remove constraint Repository: Francis A. Countway Library of Medicine Subjects Accounts Payable and Receivable Remove constraint Subjects: Accounts Payable and Receivable Subjects Medical care--Massachusetts--History Remove constraint Subjects: Medical care--Massachusetts--History Type Invoices. Remove constraint Type: Invoices. Date No date Remove constraint Date: No date
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In recent discussion of the Weblog 2007 Awards, several commenters at other blogs have argued that our criticisms of the Mannian parlor tricks have been "thoroughly refuted and discarded by climatologists, published in a credible journal"; that "other professionals in the field who also have "looked in great detail at the problem at hand" and have come to the conclusion that rather than McIntyre's findings being "valid and relevant", they instead have found them to be "without statistical and climatological merit"; that CA "fluffed on the whole hockey stick thing". See for example here
Omitted in these references are the fact that the people described as "climatologists published in a credible journal" or "professionals in the field" are none other than Wahl and Ammann, serial coauthors with Michael Mann, students of Mann, who are not independent of the controversy. Indeed, they largely use (without citation or attribution or even acknowledgment to Michael Mann) arguments originally published at realclimate (and already responded to in MM 2005b(EE). Aside from their lack of independence, neither Ammann nor Wahl qualify as statistical authorities. Ammann did his undergraduate work in geology; Wahl in divinity. While this does not exclude them from having potential insight in the matter, it is evidence that one should not necessarily expect a sure grasp of mathematical and statistical issues and that their conclusions cannot be relied upon uncritically, even if Stephen Schneider accepted their article.
Readers interested in a third party view of the matter are far better off consulting the North Report, the Wegman report, (particularly) Wegman's Reply to Questions and Richard Smith's account of the 2006 American Statistical Association session. All of these individuals are vastly more eminent than Ammann and Wahl. Wegman, in particular, has been Chair of the National Academy of Sciences Committee on Theoretical and Applied Statistics and is a legitimate statistical expert. His comments on the Wahl and Ammann preprint are very acute and have not received appropriate consideration.
I've collated some of these remarks for the benefit of new readers who haven't been following this particular story. Please read the comments below using the analogy from the previous post: see if any of our criticisms of Mannian parlor tricks have been refuted – as opposed to whether someone arguing that you can re-tool the trick to still saw the woman in half a different way. (And for this latter, pay particular attention to Wegman's comments on Wahl and Ammann later in the post.)
The Wegman Report
The original Wegman Report is online here. Here are some excerpts from this report:
The debate over Dr. Mann's principal components methodology has been going on for nearly three years. When we got involved, there was no evidence that a single issue was resolved or even nearing resolution. Dr. Mann's RealClimate.org website said that all of the Mr. McIntyre and Dr. McKitrick claims had been 'discredited'. UCAR had issued a news release saying that all their claims were 'unfounded'. Mr. McIntyre replied on the ClimateAudit.org website. The climate science community seemed unable to either refute McIntyre's claims or accept them. The situation was ripe for a third-party review of the types that we and Dr. North's NRC panel have done.
While the work of Michael Mann and colleagues presents what appears to be compelling evidence of global temperature change, the criticisms of McIntyre and McKitrick, as well as those of other authors mentioned are indeed valid.
"Where we have commonality, I believe our report and the [NAS] panel essentially agree. We believe that our discussion together with the discussion from the NRC report should take the 'centering' issue off the table. [Mann's] decentred methodology is simply incorrect mathematics …. I am baffled by the claim that the incorrect method doesn't matter because the answer is correct anyway.
Method Wrong + Answer Correct = Bad Science.
The papers of Mann et al. in themselves are written in a confusing manner, making it difficult for the reader to discern the actual methodology and what uncertainty is actually associated with these reconstructions.
It is not clear that Dr. Mann and his associates even realized that their methodology was faulty at the time of writing the [Mann] paper.
We found MBH98 and MBH99 to be somewhat obscure and incomplete and the criticisms of MM03/05a/05b to be valid and compelling.
Overall, our committee believes that Mann's assessments that the decade of the 1990s was the hottest decade of the millennium and that 1998 was the hottest year of the millennium cannot be supported by his analysis.
[The] fact that their paper fit some policy agendas has greatly enhanced their paper's visibility… The 'hockey stick' reconstruction of temperature graphic dramatically illustrated the global warming issue and was adopted by the IPCC and many governments as the poster graphic. The graphics' prominence together with the fact that it is based on incorrect use of [principal components analysis] puts Dr. Mann and his co-authors in a difficult face-saving position.
We have been to Michael Mann's University of Virginia website and downloaded the materials there. Unfortunately, we did not find adequate material to reproduce the MBH98 materials. We have been able to reproduce the results of McIntyre and McKitrick
Generally speaking, the paleoclimatology community has not recognized the validity of the [McIntyre and McKitrick] papers and has tended dismiss their results as being developed by biased amateurs. The paleoclimatology community seems to be tightly coupled as indicated by our social network analysis, has rallied around the [Mann] position, and has issued an extensive series of alternative assessments most of which appear to support the conclusions of MBH98/99… Our findings from this analysis suggest that authors in the area of paleoclimate studies are closely connected and thus 'independent studies' may not be as independent as they might appear on the surface.
It is important to note the isolation of the paleoclimate community; even though they rely heavily on statistical methods they do not seem to be interacting with the statistical community. Additionally, we judge that the sharing of research materials, data and results was haphazardly and grudgingly done. In this case we judge that there was too much reliance on peer review, which was not necessarily independent.
Based on the literature we have reviewed, there is no overarching consensus on [Mann's work]. As analyzed in our social network, there is a tightly knit group of individuals who passionately believe in their thesis. However, our perception is that this group has a self-reinforcing feedback mechanism and, moreover, the work has been sufficiently politicized that they can hardly reassess their public positions without losing credibility.
It is clear that many of the proxies are re-used in most of the papers. It is not surprising that the papers would obtain similar results and so cannot really claim to be independent verifications."
Especially when massive amounts of public monies and human lives are at stake, academic work should have a more intense level of scrutiny and review. It is especially the case that authors of policy-related documents like the IPCC report, Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis, should not be the same people as those that constructed the academic papers."
Wegman on Wahl and Ammann
Wegman's Reply to Questions is a really excellent consideration of the efforts of Wahl and Ammann to re-tool Mann's parlor trick and prove that the late 20th century was paranormal. I've given the entire question 10 and Wegman response as it is clear and concise. (Again the issue is the narrow one of whether Mann et al proved that the late 20th century was paranormal.) Stupak asked:
10. In the footnote of your report, you reference papers by Wahl and Ammann (2006) and Wahl et al. (2006) and note that they "are not to the point." I understand that Wahl and Ammann actually examined, among other things, the problem of data decentering, the main focus of your report, and corrected the emulation of MBH98 by recentering the data.
a. Did you analyze this work by Wahl and Ammann prior to sending your final report to the Committee on Energy and Commerce? If so, why does your report not alert the reader that these researchers had conducted a reanalysis of the MBH98 that corrected the only statistical methodology error discussed in the "Finding" section of your report and that these researchers found that recentering the data did not significantly affect the results reported in the MBH98 paper?
To which, Wegman answered:
Ans: The Wahl and Ammann paper came to our attention relatively late in our deliberations, but was considered by us. Some immediate thoughts we had on Wahl and Ammann was that Dr. Mann lists himself as a Ph.D. coadvisor to Dr. Ammann on his resume. As I testified in the second hearing, the work of Dr. Ammann can hardly be thought to be an unbiased independent report. It would have been more convincing had this paper been written by a totally independent authority, but alas this is not the case. The Wahl and Ammann paper is largely an attempt to refute the criticisms of McIntyre and McKitrick (MM). The comment we made in our footnote about being "not to the point" refers to the fact that MM03 and MM05 were not attempting to portray themselves as doing a paleoclimate reconstruction, they not being paleoclimatologists themselves, but were merely pointing out the flaws in the MBH98 and MBH99 papers. There are several comments of interest in the Wahl and Ammann paper. They suggest three areas in which the MBH papers have been subject to scrutiny.
First, the MBH reconstruction has been examined in light of its agreement/lack of agreement with other long-term annual and combined high/low frequency reconstructions. Wahl and Ammann (2006, p.3 in the 24 February 2006 draft)
Their conclusion is:
"The comparison of the MBH reconstruction, derived from multi-proxy (particularly tree ring) data sources, with widespread bore-hole-based reconstructions is still at issue in the literature." Wahl and Ammann (2006, p.4 in the 24 February 2006 draft)
In other words, the MBH reconstruction does not agree with other widely accepted methodologies for climate reconstruction. Bore hole methods measure a temperature gradient and calculate the diffusion of heat within the bore hole. This method does not have nearly the confounding variables as do tree ring proxies. The second area of scrutiny involves comparison with results from modeling efforts.
"Second a related area of scrutiny of the MBH reconstruction technique arises from an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) study , which also examines the potential loss of amplitude [in the MWP] in the MBH method (and other proxy/instrumental reconstructions that calibrate by using least squares projections of the proxy vectors onto a single- or multi-dimensional surface determined by either the instrumental data or its [their] eigenvectors." Wahl and Ammann (2006, p.4 in the 24 February 2006 draft)
Again the MBH reconstructions do not correlate well with the model based methods. Wahl and Amman (2006) offer the following explanation.
"However, a number of issues specific to the modeling situation could arise in this context, including: how realistically the AOGCM is able to reproduce the real world patterns of variability and how they respond to various forcings7; the magnitude of forcings and the sensitivity of the model that determine the magnitude of temperature fluctuations ; and the extent to which the model was sampled with the same richness of information that is contained in the proxy records (not only temperature records, but series that correlate well with the primary patterns of variability including, for example, precipitation in particular seasons." Wahl and Ammann, (2006, p.5 in the 24 February 2006 draft)
This quotation has two interesting facets. First, it seems to call into question the very models that are predicting temperature increases based on CO2 forcings. If these models do not coincide with the MBH reconstructions, then which are we to believe? Second, the quotation implicitly admits what we have observed previously, namely that there are other covariates such as precipitation, which are not teased out in the temperature reconstructions. Thus, what are purported to be temperature reconstructions are contaminated with covariates that reflect temperature indirectly at best and not at all at worst. The third area of scrutiny involves the challenges made by MM.
"A third area of scrutiny has focused on the nature of the proxy data set utilized by MBH, along with the pre-processing algorithms used to enhance the climate signal-to-noise characteristics of the proxy data." Wahl and Ammann, (2006, p.5 in the 24 February 2006 draft)
We submit that both the mathematical analysis in Appendix A of our report to Congress together with our simulation demonstrate that the decentering method yields incorrect results. The critical issue then becomes the proxies themselves, which MM have challenged. A telling comment from Wahl and Ammann is the following.
"A further aspect of this critique is that the single-bladed hockey stick shape in proxy PC summaries for North America is carried disproportionately by a relative small subset (15) of proxy records derived from bristlecone/foxtail pines in the western United States, which the authors [MM] mention as being subject to question in the literature as local/regional temperature proxies after approximately 1850 . It is important to note in this context that because they employ an eigenvector-based CFR technique, MBH do not claim that all proxies used in their reconstruction are closely related to local-site variations in surface temperature." Wahl and Ammann, (2006, p.9 in the 24 February 2006 draft).
This together with the AOGCM quotation reinforces the notion that MBH are attempting to reconstruct temperature histories based on proxy data that are extremely problematic in terms of actually capturing temperature information directly. As we testified, it would seem that there is some substantial likelihood that the bristlecone/foxtail pines are CO2 fertilized and hence are reflecting not temperature at all but CO2 concentration. It is a circular argument to say increased CO2 concentrations are causing temperature increases when temperature increases are estimated by using proxies that are directly affected by increased CO2 concentrations.
It is our understanding that when using the same proxies as and the same methodology as MM, Wahl and Ammann essentially reproduce the MM curves. Thus, far from disproving the MM work, they reinforce the MM work. The debate then is over the proxies and the exact algorithms as it always has been.
The fact that Wahl and Ammann (2006) admit that the results of the MBH methodology does not coincide with the results of other methods such as borehole methods and atmospheric-ocean general circulation models and that Wahl and Ammann adjust the MBH methodology to include the PC4 bristlecone/foxtail pine effects are significant reasons we believe that the Wahl and Amman paper does not convincingly demonstrate the validity of the MBH methodology.
The next part of the Stupak question was:
b. Do you agree or disagree with Wahl and Ammann's finding that the time period used to center the data does not significantly affect the results reported in the MBH98 paper? If you disagree, please state the basis for your disagreement.
Ans: We do disagree. The fundamental issue focuses on the North American Tree Ring proxy series, which Wahl and Ammann admit are problematic in carrying temperature data. In the original MBH decentered series, the hockey-stick shape emerged in the PC1 series because of reasons we have articulated in both our report and our testimony. In the original MBH papers, it was argued that this PC1 proxy was sufficient. We note the following from Wahl and Ammann.
"Thus, the number of PCs required to summarize the underlying proxy data changes depending on the approach chosen. Here we verify the impact of the choice of different numbers of PCs that are included in the climate reconstruction procedure. Systematic examination of the Gaspé-restricted reconstructions using 2-5 proxy PCs derived from MM-centered, but unstandardized data demonstrates changes in reconstruction as more PCs are added, indicating a significant change in information provided by the PC series. When two or three PCs are used, the resulting reconstructions (represented by scenario 5d, the pink (1400-1449) and green (1450-1499) curve in Fig. 3) are highly similar (supplemental information). As reported below, these reconstructions are functionally equivalent to reconstructions in which the bristlecone/foxtail pine records are directly excluded [emphasis added] (cf. pink/blue curve for scenarios 6a/b in Fig. 4).
When four or five PCs are used, the resulting reconstructions (represented by scenario 5c, within the thick blue range in Fig. 3) are virtually indistinguishable (supplemental information) and are very similar to scenario 5b." Wahl and Ammann, (2006, p.31, 24 February 2006 draft)
Without attempting to describe the technical detail, the bottom line is that, in the MBH original, the hockey stick emerged in PC1 from the bristlecone/foxtail pines. If one centers the data properly the hockey stick does not emerge until PC4. Thus, a substantial change in strategy is required in the MBH reconstruction in order to achieve the hockey stick, a strategy which was specifically eschewed in MBH. In Wahl and Ammann's own words, the centering does significantly affect the results.
In passing, the results cited here by Wahl and Ammann had already been discussed in MM 2005b (but Wahl and Ammann fail to acknowledge the earlier discussion and imply that their treatment is novel. Actually the approach originated in Mann's 2004 response to our Nature submission.) The third part of the question was:
c. Dr. Gulledge included in his testimony a slide showing the graph of WA emulation of the MBH and MBH-corrected for decentering and the Gaspé tree-ring series. Were you aware of their reanalysis of MBH99 prior to the time you finalized your report? Do you agree or disagree with their reanalysis of MBH99? If you disagree, please state the basis for your disagreement.
To which Wegman answered (and note the bolded portion as well):
Ans: Yes, we were aware of the Wahl and Ammann simulation. We continue to disagree with the reanalysis for several reasons. Even granting the unbiasedness of the Wahl and Ammann study in favor of his advisor's methodology and the fact that it is not a published refereed paper, the reconstructions mentioned by Dr. Gulledge, and illustrated in his testimony, fail to account for the effects of the bristlecone/foxtail pines.
Wahl and Ammann reject this criticism of MM based on the fact that if one adds enough principal components back into the proxy, one obtains the hockey stick shape again. This is precisely the point of contention. It is a point we made in our testimony and that Wahl and Ammann make as well. A cardinal rule of statistical inference is that the method of analysis must be decided before looking at the data. The rules and strategy of analysis cannot be changed in order to obtain the desired result. Such a strategy carries no statistical integrity and cannot be used as a basis for drawing sound inferential conclusions.
The NAS (North) Report
If North et al agreed with the Wegman findings, as they testified to the House Subcommittee under oath, how did this get expressed in the NAS panel report? My view, at the time, and it's unchanged, was that their report was "schizophrenic": they agreed with our specific criticisms of Mannian parlor tricks within the body of the report, while at the same time, reporting that there were other proofs that late 20th century climate was paranormal. Eduardo Zorita at the time characterized the NAS report as being as severe as could be contemplated under the circumstances:
in my opinion the Panel adopted the most critical position to MBH nowadays possible. I agree with you that it is in many parts ambivalent and some parts are inconsistent with others. It would have been unrealistic to expect a report with a summary stating that MBH98 and MBH99 were wrong (and therefore the IPC TAR had serious problems) when the Fourth Report is in the making. I was indeed surprised by the extensive and deep criticism of the MBH methodology in Chapters 9 and 11.
So is there any actual language in the NAS panel report that supports any suggestion that they had repudiated any of our published claims in respect to Mannian statistical methodology? In the quotes below, I've searched every reference in the report to McIntyre (or MM).
First, like Wegman, they specifically and categorically agree that Mann's principal components methodology is biased towards mining for hockey-stick shaped series. This is not the only way of doing this parlor trick – Mannian principal components is a fancy way of performing the parlor trick of selecting HS-series from a universe of noise, but you can do this the old-fashioned way: just pick them ( a methodology adopted in subsequent and previous studies.) The NAS panel (STR Preprint, 86) has an extended discussion of Mann's principal components error as follows:
Spurious Principal Components: McIntyre and McKitrick (2003) [actually McIntyre and McKitrick 2005a] demonstrated that under some conditions, the leading principal component can exhibit a spurious trendlike appearance, which could then lead to a spurious trend in the proxy-based reconstruction. To see how this can happen, suppose that instead of proxy climate data, one simply used a random sample of autocorrelated time series that did not contain a coherent signal. If these simulated proxies are standardized as anomalies with respect to a calibration period and used to form principal components, the first component tends to exhibit a trend, even though the proxies themselves have no common trend. Essentially, the first component tends to capture those proxies that, by chance, show different values between the calibration period and the remainder of the data. If this component is used by itself or in conjunction with a small number of unaffected components to perform reconstruction, the resulting temperature reconstruction may exhibit a trend, even though the individual proxies do not. Figure 9-2 shows the result of a simple simulation along the lines of McIntyre and McKitrick (2003) (the computer code appears in Appendix B)….
Principal components of sample data reflect the shape of the corresponding eigenvectors of the population covariance matrix. The first eigenvector of the covariance matrix for this simulation is the red curve in Figure 9-2, showing the precise form of the spurious trend that the principal component would introduce into the fitted model in this case. This exercise demonstrates that the baseline with respect to which anomalies are calculated can influence principal components in unanticipated ways. (STR Preprint, 86)
They comment approvingly on our criticisms on the inappropriate reliance on the RE statistic (and failed verification r2 statistic) and on non-robustness to bristlecones as follows:
A second area of criticism focuses on statistical validation and robustness. McIntyre and McKitrick (2003, 2005a,b) question the choice and application of statistical methods, notably principal component analysis; the metric used in the validation step of the reconstruction exercise; and the selection of proxies, especially the bristlecone pine data used in some of the original temperature reconstruction studies. These and other criticisms, explored briefly in the remainder of this chapter, raised concerns that led to new research and ongoing efforts to improve how surface temperature reconstructions are performed ….The more important aspect of this criticism is the issue of robustness with respect to the choice of proxies used in the reconstruction. For periods prior to the 16th century, the Mann et al. (1999) reconstruction that uses this particular principal component analysis technique is strongly dependent on data from the Great Basin region in the western United States. Such issues of robustness need to be taken into account in estimates of statistical uncertainties. STR Preprint,106-7)
and again:
Regarding metrics used in the validation step in the reconstruction exercise, two issues have been raised (McIntyre and McKitrick 2003, 2005a,b). One is that the choice of "significance level" for the reduction of error (RE) validation statistic is not appropriate. The other is that different statistics, specifically the coefficient of efficiency (CE) and the squared correlation (r2), should have been used (the various validation statistics are discussed in Chapter 9). Some of these criticisms are more relevant than others, but taken together, they are an important aspect of a more general finding of this committee, which is that uncertainties of the published reconstructions have been underestimated. Methods for evaluation of uncertainties are discussed in Chapter 9 [multiple stats recommended) (STR Preprint, 107)
Obviously none of these direct references to our work amount to anything like a repudiation. Quite the contrary. In every case where we were specifically mentioned, they agreed with our criticisms. In addition, they also made several specific findings on matters associated with our critique which, while not mentioning us (as perhaps they should have), supported the points with which we were associated. For example, they said that strip bark dendro chronologies should be "avoided" in temperature reconstructions:
While "strip-bark" samples should be avoided for temperature reconstructions, attention should also be paid to the confounding effects of anthropogenic nitrogen deposition (Vitousek et al. 1997), since the nutrient conditions of the soil determine wood growth response to increased atmospheric CO2 (Kostiainen et al. 2004). (STR Preprint, 50)
We had obviously criticized the failed verification r2, CE and other statistics in the MBH reconstruction, a result confirmed by Wahl and Ammann, despite their opposite characterization. The NAS panel saw throught this characterization and observed the failed CE statistic in MBH, initially observed in MM2005 (GRL) (although they didn't rub salt in the wound by also observing the failed verification r2 statistic, which had been the more prominent issue.) They said:
Reconstructions that have poor validation statistics (i.e., low CE) will have correspondingly wide uncertainty bounds, and so can be seen to be unreliable in an objective way. Moreover, a CE statistic close to zero or negative suggests that the reconstruction is no better than the mean, and so its skill for time averages shorter than the validation period will be low. Some recent results reported in Table 1S of Wahl and Ammann (in press) indicate that their reconstruction, which uses the same procedure and full set of proxies used by Mann et al. (1999), gives CE values ranging from 0.103 to -0.215, depending on how far back in time the reconstruction is carried. STR Preprint, 91
Large-scale surface temperature reconstructions demonstrate very limited statistical skill (e.g., using the CE statistic) for proxy sets before the 19th century (Rutherford et al. 2005, Wahl and Ammann in press). STR 111
Also without noting that it was us that had made the point, they also observed the non-robustness of these temperature reconstructions to small subsets:
Temperature reconstructions for periods before about A.D. 1600 are based on proxies from a limited number of geographic regions, and some reconstructions are not robust with respect to the removal of proxy records from individual regions (see, e.g., Wahl and Ammann in press). Because the data are so limited, different large-scale reconstructions are sometimes based on the same datasets, and thus cannot be considered as completely independent. …
Published information, although limited, also suggests that these statistics are sensitive to the inclusion of small subsets of the data. Some of the more regionally focused reconstructions (D'Arrigo et al. 2006) have better demonstrated skill back to the 16th century or so, and possibly earlier. To improve the skill of reconstructions, more data need to be collected and possibly new assimilation methods developed. STR 111
So I would submit that there are no comments in the NAS Panel report that, in any way, refute, rebut or repudiate any claims from the McIntyre and McKitrick articles. This is not to say that they do not present their own spaghetti graph as supposed evidence for the paranormal. I've discussed defects with each of these other parlor tricks on various occasions as well and have observed the singular lack of due diligence by the NAS panel in investigating these supposed evidences of the paranormal. But for now, all I'm re-capping here is that the NAS panel did not rebut our claims with respect to the supposed Mannian evidence of the paranormal.
Did Wegman and North Disagree?
There's obviously been a lot of spinning here, as Wegman's language was much more forthright. The realclimate crowd have tried to marginalize the clear statements in Wegman.
At the July 19, 2006 House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee hearing, Barton asked North very precisely whether he disagreed with any Wegman's findings and North (under oath) said no as follows:
CHAIRMAN BARTON. I understand that. It looks like my time is expired, so I want to ask one more question. Dr. North, do you dispute the conclusions or the methodology of Dr. Wegman's report?
DR. NORTH. No, we don't. We don't disagree with their criticism. In fact, pretty much the same thing is said in our report. But again, just because the claims are made, doesn't mean they are false.
CHAIRMAN BARTON. I understand that you can have the right conclusion and that it not be–
DR. NORTH. It happens all the time in science.
CHAIRMAN BARTON. Yes, and not be substantiated by what you purport to be the facts but have we established–we know that Dr. Wegman has said that Dr. Mann's methodology is incorrect. Do you agree with that? I mean, it doesn't mean Dr. Mann's conclusions are wrong, but we can stipulate now that we have–and if you want to ask your statistician expert from North Carolina that Dr. Mann's methodology cannot be documented and cannot be verified by independent review.
DR. NORTH. Do you mind if he speaks?
CHAIRMAN BARTON. Yes, if he would like to come to the microphone.
MR. BLOOMFIELD. Thank you. Yes, Peter Bloomfield. Our committee reviewed the methodology used by Dr. Mann and his coworkers and we felt that some of the choices they made were inappropriate. We had much the same misgivings about his work that was documented at much greater length by Dr. Wegman.
Given these explicit statements by NAS panel officials, let's take a look at what Wegman said about Mann et al and exactly what North, Bloomfield, Wallace and the others were agreeing with.
At the 2006 ASA meeting NAS Panel member Mike Wallace was reported as saying:
In Mike's view, the two reports were complementary, and to the extent that they overlapped, the conclusions were quite consistent.
American Statistical Association Newletter
Wegman's presentation was also discussed in the American Statistical Association newsletter here. discussing a packed session "What is the Role of Statistics in Public Policy Debates about Climate Change?" at the 2006 ASA meeting discussing statistics and climate change, to which Wegman, Mike Wallace of the NAS panel and Smith himself spoke.
Smith observed:
At the core of the controversy is an incorrect use by Mann et al. of principal components (PCs).
Note that there is no nuance here – Smith agrees with Wegman that the Mann et al method was incorrect. He then considered the argument that the error doesn't not "matter" together with Wegman's rebuttal:
A number of other commentators have acknowledged the flaws in the Mann reconstruction but have argued that this does not matter because the answers have been verified by other analyses. Ed's own response to that was given in the equation:
Method Wrong + Answer Correct = Bad Science.
In other words, the fact that the answer may have been correct does not justify the use of an incorrect method in the first place.
Both Wegman's talk and Smith's account of it correctly noted that the issues with Mann et al were not just principal components, observing almost but not quite accurately:
Ed also touched on some of the other controversies in Mann's work. Some of the proxies had been criticized as inappropriate. For example, bristlecone pines are known to be CO2 fertilized, creating a possible confounding problem if they are used in temperature reconstructionA figure from Mann's own website suggested that the medieval warm period reappeared if bristlecone pines were excluded from the reconstruction. Other studies had shown a "discomforting array of different results" in the reconstructions obtained with minor methodological variations.
As noted above, NAS panelist Wallace agreed that the NAS panel did not disagree with Wegman on common issues:
In Mike's view, the two reports were complementary, and to the extent that they overlapped, the conclusions were quite consistent.
Smith observed:
while there is undoubtedly scope for statisticians to play a larger role in paleoclimate research, the large investment of time needed to become familiar with the scientific background is likely to deter most statisticians from entering this field… In the end, it's important not to lose sight of the forest for the trees, where the "forest" refers to the totality of scientific evidence for global warming.
As to the last sentence, I agree that it's important not to lose sight of the forest for the trees. As a reviewer for AR4, it was my position that, if the paleoclimate issues were not relevant to the policy issues, then the Paleoclimate (and the hockey stick discussion) should be deleted from AR4 so that people could focus on what were the "real" arguments. The IPCC "consensus" was presumably that the paleoclimate arguments remained important and that's why the chapter remained, despite my suggestions that it be deleted.
Wegman Report https://climateaudit.files.wordpress.com/2007/11/07142006_wegman_report.pdf
Wegman Reply to Questions http://www.uoguelph.ca/~rmckitri/research/StupakResponse.pdf
North (NAS Panel) Report http://books.nap.edu/openbook.php?isbn=0309102251
North and Wegman at the House Energy and Commerce Subcommittee hearing
Richard Smith url


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Wow twenty-two weeks at Sharon's Independence Days already. It's been fun and eye opening to track all these little baby steps each week and see how they are adding up.
We had the first frost of the year last week and therefore had a mass exodus of produce from the garden. 5 gallon size bags filled with tomatoes went into the freezer and lots of winter squash went down to the basement for storage. There is a lot of damaged squash that we'll be cooking up this coming week, turning it into puree for soups and bread recipes.
Look at the last of the garden goodies:
That of course doesn't count the spinach, radishes, chard and kale that is still growing despite the weather. I don't think that the beets or lettuces pulled through though. Next year we will have to put in those for winter a bit earlier so they can get better established. Also, the potted herbs I brought home a few weeks ago bit the dust, besides the rosemary, which seems hardier and possibly strong enough to survive my kitchen gardening "techniques."
Also, after the awesome compost class that Rick and I took in September, we've been working on the big compost remodel… first moving the chicken coop, then deciding on a plan for the space then collecting materials. Rick was able to dig up some pallets from his work, so the biggest part of the bins will have cost us nothing. Yay!
So down to the nitty gritty:
Plant Something – none
Harvest Something – all the acorn squash & butternut squash, the pumpkins, all the tomatoes & zucchini. Eggs. Also Rick & H got a dusky (blue) grouse, and Rick brought home a mallard drake as well.
Preserve Something – Potatoes and winter squash to basement, froze tomatoes, froze the duck and a second grouse that Rick's uncle gave us, made a double batch of curried carrot-leek soup for the freezer.
Waste Not – Lots of "new" clothes for me from my sistah. Rick brought home some pallets from work to use to build our new compost bins. Also traded a large propane tank for a smaller one that will fit our gas grill.
Want Not/Prep & Storage – besides items added to freezer, nothing to add to this category.
Build Community Food Systems – posted on craigslist for the Englewood Farmer's Market. Ordered the hog that we're splitting with friends. Checked out another market in Littleton, will be going back to get apples this coming week… refrained from buying honeycrisp apples brought in from Washington at Costco for only $0.50/lb, even though the Colorado ones are $2.20/lb at the farmer's market.
Eat the Food – ate the grouse, used some frozen peaches for a tart (yum!), butternut squash, spaghetti squash, zucchini bread, pickles (they turned out! Yay!), potato soup, potato-leek quiche… lots of yummy things these last two weeks. Here's an old Field & Stream recipe for awesome duck breasts:
Doug's Grilled Duck Breasts
Marinade for 4-6 duck breast halves:
1 T olive oil
2-4 garlic cloves, minced
1 T fresh sage, chopped
2 T fresh parsley, chopped
6 oz teriyaki sauce
1 oz +/- Jack Daniel's
salt & pepper to taste
Place duck and marinade into a ziplock bag in refrigerator and marinade for 2-4 hours. Heat charcoal grill. Place duck breasts on grill when flame has died and coals are hot. Cook for 2-1/2 to 3 minutes on each side until rare or medium rare. Let rest 1 minute. Serve.
*note that duck is a red meat (not like chicken), and can safely (and deliciously) be eaten rare.


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to all the guy that like the look of are game go test out the beta game
kip|paul games
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*Warning there will be lots of pink and gushing girliness in this post*
Phew it is hot today- I don't know how anyone gets anything done when it's so hot! Resisting the urge to just lounge around all day, I thought I'd follow on from yesterday's post and talk about sisters in books!
I don't think sisterly love gets nearly enough attention in books- so today I want to celebrate some of my favourite books that feature sisters (both real and metaphorical) in a big way! And just a heads up, I won't be including any creepy long lost identical long lost twins or back or backstabbing biatches here- this one's all about the positivity (mostly 😉 ):
- Pride and Prejudice– how could I not include Austen? The queen of the sisterhood?! That would be madness! In fact, I was actually super tempted to put Sense and Sensibility on here as well, but let's face it, nothing beats Lizzy and Jane's relationship!
- I Capture the Castle– so mostly I just want an excuse to mention a childhood favourite. But there is a strong sister relationship in this book- only trouble is, even after all these years I can't quite put my finger on where that relationship ends up at the end of the book. Ah well, it still deserves to be on this list, partly because I have always wanted to be part of this wacky family, but mostly because I secretly want to live in a derelict castle with no heating… (says the girl that couldn't stand the Scottish winters)
- Little Women– apart from this book giving me the warm fuzzies every time I think about it, this book hands down has one of my favourite family dynamics in literature- and guess what? They're all girls! Yay- girl power! The March sisters are adorable, quirky and love fiercely- but my goodness you don't want to get in the middle when that goes awry- there are ups and downs in this book that still make me cry (and not just the obvious *ahem* unmentionable parts- seriously don't mention it, or you will reduce me to a fluffy orange mess again…)
- Sisterhood of the Travelling Pants– you knew it was coming- after my review yesterday it can't come as a surprise. What's especially wonderful about this series is that it has every type of sisterly relationship- it deals with the figurative, the blood relations and the "oh goodness what category are you in" type of sister. And even more importantly, it doesn't shy away from conflict between sisters (really just an occupational hazard)- instead directly addressing the issues they have and letting the characters grow as a result.
- To All the Boys I've Loved Before– I've mentioned it before- but one of the best things about this series is the *lovely* sister relationships in it. Like my previous choice, it doesn't make them buddy-buddy all the time- but that's a-okay with me! Because complex dynamics are so important when portraying any relationship- and especially in something as nuanced and complicated as sisters!
- A Court of Thorns and Roses Trilogy– okay so I wasn't actually sure whether to include this one, because initially *avert your eyes superfans* I wasn't totally sold on the sister relationships. It just seemed to be based on the protagonist's older sisters letting her do all the work for them. But, while I'm still not convinced of this series' perfection- review of ACOWAR to come *very* soon– I did find the sister relationships grew on me.
- Red Sister– okay, so no one in this book was technically a biological sister- BUT they were all Sisters- you know, nuns. Killer nuns in fact. And let's face it, when am I gonna pass up an opportunity to mention killer nuns? (Plus they also had developed really great bonds with each other- but to be honest my brain is still on the *deadly nuns* thing to go into detail 😉 )
- Young Elites– This one is another really unusual one, because this series is so out there. And I can't talk too much about why I love this sister relationship, because of *spoilers*. But what I can say is this relationship ends up being super integral to the plot and the story's conclusion- and how many non-romantic relationships can you say that about really? Let alone sister relationships?
- Hunger Games– and speaking of another sister relationship that is integral to a book's plot, what about Katniss Everdeen and her sister Prim. There would have been no story if Katniss hadn't offered herself as tribute to save her sister. And as for where this relationship ends up going… well let's not go there shall we (seriously, it's like I designed this post to get all teary or something!)
- How I Live Now– okay, so another cheerless book about the end of the world. But there was one thing I always took heart from and that was Daisy holding Piper's hand and leading her through the literal end of the world- they're not technically sisters, yet this image of sisterly devotion is burned into my mind whenever I think of a moment of sisterhood in books. I just want to point to it and say *that right there* (there's also a lot of weird shit in this book, but at least there's family at the centre of it all)
Okay that post ended up going in a darker direction than I intended. Do you agree or disagree with my choices? What book do you think is a great representation of sisterhood? Let me know in the comments below!
And naturally, I dedicate this post to my sister the monkey baby (yes that is her real nickname and no I am not making that up)


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Beautiful Voucher Vector Mockup
Beautiful Voucher Vector Mockup for you to download and use in your next graphic design or web/mobile design project, created by Nonso Okolo.
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text: The Days column shows the number of distinct days the peak has been summited. The Total column shows the total number of ascents, which may include ascents on the same day. The Elapsed column shows how much time has passed between the first and most recent ascent of that peak.


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Curse of the Half-Empty Glass
"What was the primary means of motivation in those days?"
– Carl Reiner and Mel Brooks, The Two Thousand Year Old Man
For the 2000 year old man, fear may have been a very effective motivator: when he saw a lion, he was motivated to run the other way. That, in a nutshell, is the problem with fear. Fear doesn't make someone move toward safety; it makes them move away from danger. Same thing? Not really. In jujitsu, pain can be used to invoke a fear of injury. Someone experiencing that pain, and that fear, will move away from it, even if moving away means running full tilt into the nearest tree.
In business, the same phenomenon occurs. Faced with an unexpected problem or setback, the most common response is to highlight the threat to the organization and all the terrible things that will happen if the threat is not immediately countered. This practice of attempting to motivate people to work harder through fear – fear of competition, loss of market share, job loss, company going out of business, and so forth – may encourage harder work, but not necessarily more effective work. In the business environment, there are a lot of trees.
While fear gets the adrenaline flowing, it also narrows focus, reduces creativity, and makes it harder for people to recognize and change a losing strategy. This would be fine, except that what is actually needed in most situations is a creative solution, the ability to accurately assess whether or not a strategy is working, and the ability to quickly discard failing strategies. Avoiding premature decision making, no easy task at the best of times, only becomes more difficult. As we all learned in grade school, in the event of a fire, don't rush for the door: proceed slowly and avoid panic. The same is true in business: rushing to a decision is almost guaranteed to lead to a bad decision.
So given that the business needs to get employees focused and energized to meet a potential challenge, how should it go about doing that?
The key is to recognize that the glass in not half empty. It's half full. That makes a difference: instead of focusing on what you lack, focus on what you have going for you. Instead of fear, instill an atmosphere of optimism. There are several steps to accomplishing this:
- Start by defining success. What does it look like? What will your business have accomplished in order to have been successful? Communicate that in a few brief, vibrant, sentences. If you don't know where you're going, you can waste a lot of time not getting there.
- Lay out a set of goals that will make the business successful. Include what you'll be doing as well as what you expect others to do.
- Remind employees of previous challenges that they've successfully overcome. Emphasize the positive: how teams pulled together, how individuals stepped up to the plate, and so forth.
- Recognize that roadblocks will appear: don't assume everything will go perfectly. The competition may do something unexpected. A critical employee may get the flu. A storm may disrupt travel or power. Make sure you've allowed time to deal with the unexpected so that it doesn't derail you.
- Present energizing images to use when bad news strikes or setbacks occur: a cyclist passed by an opponent can imagine a rubber band attached to his opponent's back. The rubber band pulls him faster and faster until he passes said opponent. Come up with the equivalent for your business. Repeat it frequently. If you can't keep a straight face, find a different image.
- Take the time to brainstorm different solutions to the problems you are facing. Evaluate what you come up with and make sure it will get you to that success state. Rushing off down the wrong path wastes valuable time and, even more important, drains enthusiasm.
- Periodically review progress and show people how far they've come. Pilots may care more about the runway ahead than the runway behind them, but everyone else is motivated more by how much they've accomplished rather than being constantly reminded of how much more there is to do.
- Celebrate successes. Short-term reminders increase the sense of progress and make people feel appreciated.
Half empty or half full. A fearful team or an enthusiastic, creative team. It's your choice.
Happy New Year!