The  reaction  was  not  altogether  unexpected,  but  yet  it' was  sudden  enough  to  catch
not  a  few  of  the  unwary,  who  had  forgotten  or  not  profited  by  the  lessons  of  the  gen-
eral business  collapse  of  l-<73.  Prices  nave  not  dropped  to  ♦ho  low  rates  they  reached
during  the  period  of  depression,  and  among  producers  generally  the  opinion  prevails
that  the  reaction  is  but  temporary  and  is  attributed  to  a  large  degree  to  the  mistakes
of  the  producers  themselves  in  advancing  prices  to  points  which  checked  the  de-
mand-
As  the  improvement  in  business  followed  closely  after  the  changes  in  the  German
tariff  laws,  it  was  frequently  asserted  by  the  advocates  of  the  higher  duties  imposed
by  the  new  tariff  that  the  general  improvement  was  in  part  attributable  to  the  * 'tar-
iff reform."  But  I  do  not  think  this  opinion  was  seriously  entertained  by  many.  It
would  be  a  sufficient  answer  to  this  assertion  to  point  out  the  fact  that  in  other  coun-
tries where  no  changes  in  the  revenue  laws  have  been  made,  and  where  the  same  gen-
eral conditions  exist,  the  improvement  in  business  was  as  great  as  in  Germany.  Now,
however,  that  the  improvement  has  not  kept  up  and  met  tne  very  high  expectations  of
the  beginning  of  the  year,  it  is  generally  asserted  that  it  was  the  result  of  "American
speculation  " ;  but  a  number  of  the  boards  of  trade  reports  admit  that  the  impulse  of  the
business  improvement  came  solely  from  the  United  States,  where,  as  these  reports
say,  the  resumption  of  specie  payments  and  a  sound  financial  condition,  followed  by
abundant  harvests,  inspired  capitalists  and  business  men  with  confidence  in  the
future  and  caused  now  enterprises  to  be  undertaken,  which  created  a  market  for  the
surplus  products  of  Europe.
