Although nearly all bankers are in favor of pro-
tection, yet most economists, on whose advice
the bankers depend regarding all other matters,



POLITICAli FACTORS 29$

are almost without exception against protection ;
but whether high tariflp for protection or low
tariff for revenue only, is best for the country,
the fact remains that whenever the subject is
discussed and whenever there is to be a change
in classifications or duties, this discussion and
legislation has always affected business con-
ditions. Moreover, although the adoption of
certain tariff legislation has given a great
impetus to prosperity, yet the previous dis-
cussion of the subject has always tended to
disturb confidence, promote a feeling of un-
certainty and seriously check business. 7

This is very well described by Henry Hall
as follows: —

''In the United States the business world has
become accustomed to the protective principle;
and even the prospect of reduced duties has
always chilled the spirit of enterprise, while the
reality has always given a set back to business,
sooner or later. On the other hand, enactment
of protective tariff, in lieu of one for revenue
only, has always proved exciting and has quick-
ened into intense activity the looms, forges
and machinery of the entire country.
The backward state of American industry
prior to the Civil War is held to have been due
in large measure to the relaxation of protection



POIiinCAlj FACTORS 297

Therefore successful bankers, merchants and
investors always carefully watch political con-
ditions and if possible reduce them to a decimal
or barometer index number.
The following conclusions are suggested rel-
ative to " Political Uncertainties."

(This assumes all political factors to be un-
favorable and the best conditions to be when
only routine business is being considered.
