Article:


  
 Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate Michelle Nunn, right, participates in a rally before casting her own ballot in early voting at the Adamsville Recreation Center in Fulton County on Oct. 15 in Atlanta. Nunn is running against Republican David Perdue. (David Tulis/AP) 
  
 The Senate race in Louisiana is headed for a runoff, and the race in Georgia is likely to join it. That means we could have two Senate races stretching into December and one of them into January — with control of the U.S. Senate very possibly in the balance. 
  
 And accordingly, we're starting to focus a little more on runoff polling. 
  
 These surveys suggest that Democrat Michelle Nunn has the runoff edge in Georgia (she led 51-47 in a CNN/ORC poll last week) and Republican Rep. Bill Cassidy has the edge in Louisiana (he's up 48-41 in a just-released USA Today/Suffolk poll). 
  
 But when it comes to these pre-Election Day polls of hypothetical runoffs, caution is the watchword. 
  
 The runoff polls, for instance, apply the same electorate from Election Day to the runoff. And especially in Georgia, where the runoff is still more than two months away and turnout will be lower, it's not a great measure. (Turnout in Georgia's last two Senate runoffs — in 1992 and 2008 — has been between 81 and 84 percent as high as turnout in the following midterm elections.) 
  
 In addition, that drop in turnout almost always comes at the expense of the Democrats. The last five statewide runoffs have seen Democrats lose an average of nine points from their Election Day margins. In other words, if Nunn's campaign were offered the same electorate Jan. 6 as Nov. 4, it would take it in a heartbeat. But that's probably not feasible — especially given that this will be the state's first post-New Year's Day runoff. 
  
 Turnout in Louisiana runoffs, by contrast, can be pretty similar to a midterm election. That's because the runoff is basically the general election in Louisiana, following the nonpartisan jungle primary on Election Day. In 2002, for instance, Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.) faced a runoff in which turnout was basically just as high (99 percent) as it was on Election Day. 
  
 But runoff turnout also varies significantly based on what kind of races are being held. In congressional runoffs, for instance, turnout can drop by as much as one-third if there isn't a big-ticket runoff at the top of the ballot getting voters back to the polls. 
  
 And while Landrieu has survived two runoffs, the odds in this one are stacked against her. The Suffolk poll shows Landrieu at 36 percent, Cassidy at 35 percent, tea party favorite Rob Maness (R) at 11 percent and 18 percent undecided. 
  
 Here, it's actually more instructive to look at the the Maness voters and the undecideds than the runoff poll. As Suffolk pollster David Paleologos notes, 89 percent of Maness supporters and 60 percent of undecided voters have an unfavorable opinion of Landrieu. These are the people Landrieu would need to win over in order to get to 50 percent plus one Dec. 6. 
  
 But while all of those voters appear likely to vote on Election Day, the question is who among them will turn out for the runoff. If Maness voters are disenchanted enough with Cassidy, do they stay home? And who among the undecideds comes to the polls? Landrieu is at 75 percent among the black vote, for instance, and if she can drive that number up, it would certainly help. 
  
 In both of these cases, though, the most important thing to remember is that there are still several weeks of the campaign to go, and especially in a state like Louisiana, both sides have effectively been biding their time for the runoff for a while now. The last few weeks is when stuff starts happening. 
  
 And lastly, consider the very real possibility that these races could be pivotal for control of the Senate. If that's the case, these two states will be inundated with money from all over the country, and nobody will be able to escape the importance of their state's runoff. And conversely, if the Senate majority isn't at stake, these could turn into pretty sleepy contests. 
  
 If could be a fun few weeks. ||||| WASHINGTON The fight for control of the U.S. Senate could last far past the Nov. 4 election, with possible run-offs in Louisiana and Georgia and surprising surges by independent candidates in Kansas and South Dakota creating new uncertainty for both parties. 
  
 All four states are critical to Republican efforts to pick up the six Senate seats they need to hold a majority of the 100-member chamber, and the added unpredictability could extend the battle for Senate control into December or even early January. 
  
 In Louisiana and Georgia, no Senate candidates are polling above the 50 percent level needed to avoid a run-off between the top two finishers. The Louisiana run-off would be on Dec. 6, and the Georgia run-off would be on Jan. 6, the day the new Congress is scheduled to convene. 
  
 The picture is further muddied by the rise of strong independent candidates in Kansas and South Dakota who could join the Senate without clear allegiance to Democrats or Republicans. If Senate control hinges on one or two seats, they would face immense pressure from both parties to join their ranks. 
  
 "The fact of the matter is we may not know who is going to control the Senate on November 4," said Jim Manley, a former longtime aide to Democratic Majority Leader Harry Reid. "It may take at least a month for it to all play out." 
  
 The stakes will be high for both parties. With a dozen or so tight races being waged across the country, any state could wind up producing the kingmaker who decides whether Republicans or Democrats control the Senate. 
  
 Republicans are expected to maintain their majority in the House of Representatives, so winning the Senate would give them further power to block President Barack Obama's agenda in the last two years of his term. 
  
 In the case of a 50-50 split in the Senate, Vice President Joe Biden, a Democrat, would represent the deciding vote. 
  
 Both parties are preparing for overtime battles. A run-off is expected in Louisiana, where two Republicans are trying to unseat Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu. In Georgia, a Libertarian candidate could siphon away enough votes to keep the Republican and Democratic contenders just below 50 percent. 
  
 In Kansas, Republican Senator Pat Roberts faces a tough challenge from independent Greg Orman, whose candidacy was bolstered last month when the Democrat dropped off the ballot. Recent polls in South Dakota show a tight three-way race between Republican governor Mike Rounds, Democrat Rick Weiland, and independent Larry Pressler, a former Republican senator. 
  
 If either independent wins he will face heavy pressure from both parties to side with them in the new Congress, especially if the Senate balance of power hinges on his decision. Maine independent Angus King could also come under the spotlight. He currently caucuses with Democrats but has said he will consider switching parties after the election if he thinks it is best for Maine. 
  
 The prospect of a split Senate also raises the possibility of party-switching from lawmakers who do not always align with their own parties. This would not be unprecedented: in 2001, for example, Vermont Republican Jim Jeffords became an independent, joining Democrats in votes to give them a majority. 
  
 (Reporting by Gabriel Debenedetti; Editing by John Whitesides, Frances Kerry and Andrew Hay) |||||
What is a summary?
– Think the Nov. 4 election will determine which party controls the US Senate? Not necessarily: Louisiana and Georgia are facing possible run-offs, while Kansas and South Dakota have strong independent candidates who could become king-makers if either party needs one more to control the 100-member legislative body, Reuters reports. No candidates are polling high enough in Louisiana and Georgia to avoid a run-off, which could extend the battle for Senate control to Dec. 6 in Louisiana and Jan. 6 in Georgia. If independents win in Kansas or South Dakota, they may eventually turn Democrat or Republican. "The fact of the matter is we may not know who is going to control the Senate on November 4," says a former aide to Harry Reid. "It may take at least a month for it to all play out." Democrat Michelle Nunn would apparently win a Georgia runoff (by 51% to 47%, per a CNN/ORC poll) while Republican Rep. Bill Cassidy might win in Louisiana (by 48% to 41%, per a USA Today/Suffolk poll), reports the Washington Post. Other runoff data abounds: In Georgia, for example, turnout usually drops from Election Day to runoff, especially for Democrats, while Election Day numbers tend to hold steady in Louisiana. In a Louisiana runoff, Sen. Mary Landrieu would need to sway independents and supporters of tea party candidate Rob Maness, who view her unfavorably by sizable majorities. What's more, a sudden influx of cash could influence either runoff if Senate control hangs in the balance. "It could be a fun few weeks," quips the Post.
Artikel: Demokratiska kandidat för USA: s senat Michelle Nunn, höger, deltar i ett rally innan hon kastar sin egen valsedel i tidig röstning på Adamsville Recreation Center i Fulton County den 15 oktober i Atlanta. Nunn ställer upp mot republikanen David Perdue. Senatsloppet i Louisiana är på väg mot en avrinning, och loppet i Georgia är sannolikt att ansluta sig till det. Det innebär att vi kan ha två senatslopp som sträcker sig in i december och en av dem in i januari — med kontroll över USA:s senat mycket möjligt i balans. Och därför börjar vi fokusera lite mer på avrinningsval. Dessa undersökningar tyder på att demokraten Michelle Nunn har avrinningskanten i Georgia (hon ledde 51-47 i en CNN/ORC-undersökning förra veckan) och republikanen Rep. Bill Cassidy har kanten i Louisiana (han är uppe 48-41 i en nyss släppt USA Today/Suffolk-undersökning). Men när det gäller dessa opinionsundersökningar före valdagen om hypotetiska avrunkningar, är försiktighet ett motto. Avrinningsundersökningarna tillämpar till exempel samma väljare från valdagen på avrinningen. Och särskilt i Georgien, där avrinningen fortfarande är mer än två månader bort och valdeltagandet kommer att vara lägre, är det ingen stor åtgärd. (Turnout i Georgiens två senaste senatsavgångar – 1992 och 2008 – har varit mellan 81 och 84 procent så högt som valdeltagandet i följande mellanval.) Dessutom kommer denna nedgång i valdeltagandet nästan alltid på demokraternas bekostnad. De senaste fem delstatsomfattande avrunningarna har sett demokraterna förlora i genomsnitt nio poäng från sina valdagsmarginaler. Med andra ord, om Nunns kampanj erbjöds samma väljare 6 jan som 4 nov, skulle det ta det på ett ögonblick. Men det är förmodligen inte möjligt — särskilt med tanke på att detta kommer att bli statens första avrinning efter nyårsdagen. Turnén i Louisiana kan däremot vara ganska lik ett mellanval. Det beror på att avrinningen i grund och botten är det allmänna valet i Louisiana, efter den icke-partiella djungelns primärval på valdagen. År 2002 till exempel Sen Mary Landrieu (D-La.) När valdeltagandet var lika högt (99 procent) som på valdagen stod inför en avrinning. Men avrinningsdeltagandet varierar också betydligt beroende på vilken typ av lopp som hålls. I kongressens avrinningar, till exempel, kan valdeltagandet sjunka med så mycket som en tredjedel om det inte finns en stor biljett avrinning i toppen av valomgången få väljarna tillbaka till valurnorna. Och medan Landrieu har överlevt två avstickare, är oddsen i den här en staplade mot henne. Suffolkundersökningen visar Landrieu på 36 procent, Cassidy på 35 procent, tebjudningsfavoriten Rob Maness (R) på 11 procent och 18 procent obeslutsamma. Här är det mer lärorikt att titta på Maness-väljarna och de obeslutsamma än på avrinningsundersökningen. Som Suffolk-undersökningsmannen David Paleologos konstaterar har 89 procent av maness-anhängarna och 60 procent av de obeslutsamma väljarna en ogynnsam uppfattning om Landrieu. Dessa är de människor Landrieu skulle behöva vinna över för att få till 50 procent plus en Dec. 6. Men även om alla dessa väljare verkar rösta på valdagen, är frågan vem av dem som kommer att visa sig för avrinningen. Om Maness väljare är missnöjda nog med Cassidy, stannar de då hemma? Och vem bland de obeslutsamma kommer till opinionsundersökningarna? Landrieu är 75 procent bland de svarta, till exempel, och om hon kan driva upp det antalet, skulle det verkligen hjälpa. Men i båda dessa fall är det viktigaste att komma ihåg att det fortfarande finns flera veckor kvar av kampanjen, och särskilt i en stat som Louisiana har båda sidor i praktiken bidat sin tid för avrinningen ett tag nu. De senaste veckorna är när saker börjar hända. Och slutligen, tänk på den verkliga möjligheten att dessa raser kan vara avgörande för kontrollen över senaten. Om så är fallet kommer dessa två stater att översvämmas av pengar från hela landet, och ingen kommer att kunna undkomma vikten av deras stats avrinning. Och om inte senatens majoritet står på spel kan de här bli ganska sömniga tävlingar. Om det kunde vara några roliga veckor. Kampen för kontroll av USA: s senat kunde pågå långt förbi valet den 4 november, med möjliga avrinningar i Louisiana och Georgia och överraskande våg av oberoende kandidater i Kansas och South Dakota skapa ny osäkerhet för båda partierna. Alla fyra delstater är kritiska till republikanska ansträngningar för att hämta de sex senatssäten de behöver för att hålla en majoritet av 100-ledamotskammaren, och den tillkomna oförutsägbarheten skulle kunna förlänga striden om senatens kontroll till december eller till och med början av januari. I Louisiana och Georgia röstar inga senatskandidater över den 50-procentiga nivå som behövs för att undvika en avrinning mellan de två bästa slutspelarna. Louisianas avrinning skulle ske den 6 december, och Georgiens avrinning skulle ske den 6 januari, dagen då den nya kongressen är planerad att sammankallas. Bilden grumlas ytterligare av uppkomsten av starka oberoende kandidater i Kansas och South Dakota som kunde ansluta sig till senaten utan tydlig trohet till demokrater eller republikaner. Om senatens kontroll är beroende av ett eller två mandat, skulle de möta enorma påtryckningar från båda partierna att ansluta sig till sina led. "Faktum är att vi kanske inte vet vem som kommer att kontrollera senaten den 4 november", sade Jim Manley, en tidigare långvarig medhjälpare till Democratic Majority Leader Harry Reid. "Det kan ta minst en månad för det att allt utspelar sig." Insatserna kommer att vara höga för båda parter. Med ett dussin eller så snäva raser som förs över hela landet, kan vilken delstat som helst sluta med att producera kungamakaren som bestämmer om republikaner eller demokrater kontrollerar senaten. Republikaner förväntas behålla sin majoritet i representanthuset, så att vinna senaten skulle ge dem ytterligare makt att blockera president Barack Obamas agenda under de två sista åren av hans mandatperiod. Vid en 50-50 splittring i senaten skulle vicepresident Joe Biden, en demokrat, representera den avgörande omröstningen. Båda parter förbereder sig för övertidslagsmål. En avstickare förväntas i Louisiana, där två republikaner försöker avsätta demokraternas senator Mary Landrieu. I Georgien kunde en libertariansk kandidat ta bort tillräckligt med röster för att hålla republikanerna och demokraterna strax under 50 procent. I Kansas står den republikanske senatorn Pat Roberts inför en tuff utmaning från oberoende Greg Orman, vars kandidatur stärktes förra månaden när demokraten lade av valsedeln. De senaste opinionsundersökningarna i South Dakota visar att det finns ett trekantigt lopp mellan den republikanske guvernören Mike Rounds, demokraten Rick Weiland, och den oberoende Larry Pressler, en före detta republikansk senator. Om någondera oberoende vinner kommer han att utsättas för kraftiga påtryckningar från båda partierna att ställa sig på deras sida i den nya kongressen, särskilt om senatens maktbalans hänger på hans beslut. Maine oberoende Angus King kunde också komma i rampljuset. Han caucuserar för närvarande med demokrater men har sagt att han kommer att överväga att byta parti efter valet om han tycker att det är bäst för Maine. Utsikten till en delad senat väcker också möjligheten till partiswitching från lagstiftare som inte alltid anpassar sig till sina egna partier. Detta skulle inte vara utan motstycke: 2001 blev till exempel Vermont-republikanen Jim Jeffords självständig och anslöt sig till demokraterna i omröstningar för att ge dem majoritet. (Reportage av Gabriel Debenedetti; Redigering av John Whitesides, Frances Kerry och Andrew Hay) Vad är en sammanfattning?
Article: Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate Michelle Nunn, right, participates in a rally before throwing her own ballot in early voting at the Adamsville Recreation Center in Fulton County on October 15 in Atlanta. Nunn is running against Republican David Perdue. The Louisiana Senate race is heading for a runoff, and the race in Georgia is likely to join it. This means that we may have two Senate races extending into December and one of them into January — with control over the United States Senate very possibly in balance. And that's why we're starting to focus a little more on runoff choices. These surveys indicate that Democrat Michelle Nunn has the runoff edge in Georgia (she led 51-47 in a CNN/ORC poll last week) and Republican Rep. Bill Cassidy has the edge in Louisiana (he is up 48-41 in a recently released USA Today/Suffolk poll). However, in the case of these pre-election polls on hypothetical handjobs, caution is a motto. For example, the runoff surveys apply the same voters from election day to the runoff. And especially in Georgia, where the runoff is still more than two months away and the turnout will be lower, it is not a major measure. (Turnout in Georgia's last two Senate departures – 1992 and 2008 – has been between 81 and 84% as high as turnout in the following mid-term elections.) In addition, this decline in turnout almost always comes at the Democratic expense. The last five statewide runs have seen Democrats lose an average of nine points from their election day margins. In other words, if Nunn's campaign were offered the same voters Jan 6 as Nov 4, it would take it in an instant. But that is probably not possible — especially since this will be the first runoff of the state after New Year’s Day. On the other hand, the tour of Louisiana may be quite similar to a middle election. This is because the runoff is basically the general election in Louisiana, following the non-partisan jungle primary on election day. 2002 for example, Sen Mary Landrieu (D-La.) When the turnout was as high (99 per cent) as on election day, a runoff was faced. However, runoff participation also varies significantly depending on the type of race held. In the runoff of Congress, for example, turnout may drop by as much as a third if there is not a large ticket runoff at the top of the ballot bring voters back to the ballot boxes. And while Landrieu has survived two detours, the odds in this one are stacked against her. The Suffolk survey shows Landrieu at 36%, Cassidy at 35%, tea party favourite Rob Maness (R) at 11% and 18% indecisive. Here it is more instructive to look at the Maness voters and the indecisive than at the runoff survey. As Suffolk surveyor David Paleologos notes, 89 percent of the meness supporters and 60 percent of the indecisive voters have an unfavorable view of Landrieu. These are the people Landrieu would have to win over to get 50 percent plus a Dec. 6. But even if all these voters seem to vote on election day, the question is which one of them will show up for the runoff. If Maness voters are dissatisfied enough with Cassidy, will they stay home? And who among the indecisive comes to the polls? Landrieu is 75 percent among the blacks, for example, and if she can push that number up, it would really help. However, in both cases, the most important thing to remember is that there are still several weeks left of the campaign, and especially in a state such as Louisiana, both sides have been effectively biding their time for runoff for a while now. The last few weeks are when things start to happen. And finally, think of the real possibility that these races may be crucial to control of the Senate. If so, these two states will be flooded with money from across the country, and no one will be able to escape the importance of their state's runoff. And unless the Senate majority is at stake, these could be pretty sleepy contests. If it could be a couple of fun weeks. The struggle for control of the U.S. Senate could last far past the November 4 election, with possible runoff in Louisiana and Georgia and surprising wave of independent candidates in Kansas and South Dakota creating new uncertainty for both parties. All four states are critical of Republican efforts to retrieve the six Senate seats they need to hold a majority of the 100-member chamber, and the added unpredictability could prolong the battle for Senate control until December or even early January. In Louisiana and Georgia, no Senate candidates vote above the 50% level needed to avoid a runoff between the top two playoffs. Louisiana's runoff would take place on December 6, and Georgia's runoff would take place on January 6, the day the new Congress is scheduled to be convened. The image is further clouded by the emergence of strong independent candidates in Kansas and South Dakota who could join the Senate without clear allegiance to Democrats or Republicans. If Senate control depends on one or two seats, they would face enormous pressure from both parties to join their ranks. "The fact is that we may not know who will be controlling the Senate on November 4," said Jim Manley, a former long-time aide to Democratic Majority Leader Harry Reid. "It could take at least a month for everything to take place." The efforts will be high for both parties. With a dozen or so narrow races being carried across the country, any state can end up producing the kingmaker who decides whether Republicans or Democrats control the Senate. Republicans are expected to retain their majority in the House of Representatives, so winning the Senate would give them additional power to block President Barack Obama's agenda during the last two years of his term. In the event of a 50-50 split in the Senate, Vice President Joe Biden, a Democrat, would represent the decisive vote. Both parties are preparing for overtime fights. A detour is expected in Louisiana, where two Republicans are attempting to remove Democratic Senator Mary Landrieu. In Georgia, a Libertarian candidate was able to remove enough votes to keep Republicans and Democrats just below 50 percent. In Kansas, Republican Senator Pat Roberts faces a tough challenge from independent Greg Orman, whose candidacy was strengthened last month when the Democrat dropped the ballot. Recent polls in South Dakota show that there is a triangular race between Republican Governor Mike Rounds, Democrat Rick Weiland, and independent Larry Pressler, a former Republican senator. If either independent wins, he will be under heavy pressure from both parties to side with them in the new Congress, especially if the balance of power of the Senate depends on his decision. Maine independent Angus King could also come into the spotlight. He currently caucuses with Democrats but has said he will consider changing parties after the election if he thinks it's best for Maine. The prospect of a split Senate also raises the possibility of party switching from legislators who do not always adapt to their own parties. This would not be unprecedented: in 2001, for example, Vermont Republican Jim Jeffords became independent and joined the Democrats in votes to give them a majority. (Reporting by Gabriel Debenedetti; Editing by John Whitesides, Frances Kerry and Andrew Hay) What is a summary?
– Tror du att valet 4 november avgör vilket parti som kontrollerar USA:s senat? Inte nödvändigtvis: Louisiana och Georgia står inför möjliga avrinningar, medan Kansas och South Dakota har starka oberoende kandidater som skulle kunna bli kungamakare om någotdera partiet behöver en till för att kontrollera den 100-medlems lagstiftande organ, Reuters rapporterar. Inga kandidater röstar tillräckligt högt i Louisiana och Georgia för att undvika en avrinning, vilket skulle kunna förlänga striden om senatens kontroll till 6 december i Louisiana och 6 januari i Georgia. Om oberoende vinner i Kansas eller South Dakota, kan de så småningom bli demokrat eller republikan. "Faktum är att vi kanske inte vet vem som ska kontrollera senaten den 4 november", säger en före detta medhjälpare till Harry Reid. "Det kan ta minst en månad för det att allt utspelar sig." Demokraten Michelle Nunn skulle tydligen vinna en Georgia avrinning (med 51% till 47%, per en CNN / ORC-undersökning) medan republikanen Rep. Bill Cassidy kan vinna i Louisiana (med 48% till 41%, per en USA Today / Suffolk undersökning), rapporterar Washington Post. Andra avrinningsdata finns det gott om: I Georgien brukar till exempel valdeltagandet sjunka från valdagen till avrinning, särskilt för demokrater, medan valdagens siffror tenderar att hålla stadigt i Louisiana. I en Louisiana avrinning, Sen. Mary Landrieu skulle behöva styra oberoende och anhängare av tebjudning kandidat Rob Maness, som betraktar henne ogynnsamt genom betydande majoriteter. Dessutom kan en plötslig tillströmning av kontanter påverka endera avrinningen om senatskontrollen hänger på vågen. "Det kan vara några roliga veckor", quips Post.
Do you think the November 4 election will determine which party controls the U.S. Senate? Not necessarily: Louisiana and Georgia face possible runoff, while Kansas and South Dakota have strong independent candidates who could become king-makers if either party needs one more to control the 100-member legislative body, Reuters reports. No candidates vote high enough in Louisiana and Georgia to avoid a runoff, which could prolong the battle for Senate control to December 6 in Louisiana and January 6 in Georgia. If independence wins in Kansas or South Dakota, they may eventually become a Democrat or a Republican. "The fact is, we may not know who is going to control the Senate on November 4," says a former aide to Harry Reid. "It could take at least a month for everything to take place." Democrat Michelle Nunn would apparently win a Georgia runoff (by 51% to 47%, per a CNN / ORC poll) while Republican Rep. Bill Cassidy can win in Louisiana (by 48% to 41%, per a USA Today / Suffolk poll), reports the Washington Post. Other runoff data are plentiful: In Georgia, for example, turnout tends to drop from election day to runoff, especially for Democrats, while election day figures tend to hold steady in Louisiana. In a Louisiana runoff, Sen. Mary Landrieu would need to govern independent and supporters of tea party candidate Rob Maness, who views her unfavorably through significant majorities. In addition, a sudden influx of cash may affect either runoff if Senate control hangs on the wave. "It could be a few fun weeks," quips Post.