The Risk to Inflation and the Fed is Oil The risk to the inflation outlook is oil (NYSEARCA: USO). Numerous Fed officials commented that the committee could be cautious with rates, hinting that no more hikes were needed or outright saying the peak was in or near. The S&P 500: At Resistance With Catalysts In Sight The S&P 500 (NASDAQ: SPY) rallied strongly all year and has reached unsustainable levels without positive news to drive it.