It shows the outperformance since the beginning of November of the Thomson Reuters/Jefferies CRB commodity index over the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index Fund (NYSEArca:EEM), the most liquid emerging markets ETF. Source:U.S. Treasury With the probabilities of the deflation trade seemingly diminishing for the time being, it's still too soon to declare victory, in my view. Specifically, tax cuts that are adding to the federal budget deficit, plus the Fed's "quantitative easing," highlight my concerns that policies designed to stimulate the economy could now be counterproductive.