Total claims are up 26% YOY, but last year’s figure was an historic low for the period, and the comp versus 2021 and 2020 is -66% and -93%, quite an improvement from the pandemic highs. More importantly, claims are up a mere 17% compared to 2019 and consistent with the recovery period leading up to the pandemic era, as is most other labor market data. The takeaway is that job and wage growth fuel consumer habits and demand-side inflation; a soft landing will allow this situation to persist, giving the FOMC no room to cut rates.