One of my top researchers spent a summer analyzing the past data, helping to develop a method for risk control (free paper available on request). Prof. James Hamilton , our go-to expert on energy and the economy, reviews his research and also includes a helpful calculator showing the relationship between oil and gasoline prices. Please note that this was the trap that ensnared leading experts and wise observers like John Hussman and the ECRI - just to mention two of the most prominent examples who have had disastrous results over the last few years.