Total claims are up 26% YOY, but last year’s figure was an historic low for the period, and the comp versus 2021 and 2020 is -66% and -93%, quite an improvement from the pandemic highs. The takeaway is that job and wage growth fuel consumer habits and demand-side inflation; a soft landing will allow this situation to persist, giving the FOMC no room to cut rates. Together, they have global production lagging demand by roughly 1 million barrels per day, which is expected to remain true through the end of the year.