L'impact de la volatilité des taux de change sur le commerce international : essai de validation empirique désagrégées des exportations sectorielles canadiennes vers les États-Unis via une approche d'estimation VAR
This study provides an overview on the interactions and linkages between the volatility of exchange rates and international trade. The objective of this work is to present this relationship theoretically and examine, empirically the existence of this causal relationship between international trade and exchange rate variability. The literature on the subject considers himself across as contradictory and supports several controversies that do not allow the clear conclusion about the relationship in question.   We try to push this research a step further by reviewing the evidence for Canada and providing an empirical investigation on the possible existence of a significant impact of volatility on sectoral disaggregated flows of Canadian exports to its trading partner, the United States. We empirically examine the response of five sectors of Canadian exports to changes in real effective exchange rate between Canada and the United States.  However, our results do not allow us to conclude about the significance of an impact on volatility of exchange rates on disaggregated sectoral exports to United States. Overall, even if we admit that the sign of the estimated coefficients of the exchange risk variable in each sector is negative, we reach the conclusion that the volatility does not seem to have a statistically significant impact on the real volume of exports from Canada to the United States.
VAR Exchange-rate variability risk measurement International trade