Évolution et projection du fardeau de la mortalité au Canada, de 1921 à 2047
The Canadian population is aging since the early twentieth century. The birth of large cohorts of baby-boom initially slowed the phenomenon. But the aging of these generations raises many questions about the ability of the population to support the weight of these individuals in the purview of health and of the sustainability of pension schemes. In addition, Statistics Canada projections show that the dependency ratio of the elderly will increase by 82% between 2015 and 2061. However, this indicator is debatable since it is based solely on age. Many aging measurement indicators have been developed over the years to take into account the evolution of the life cycle, health and quality of life of individuals in order to get closer to the real impact of aging on society. It is in this context that we offer our indicator, called "burden of mortality”. Comparison with the classical dependency ratio will highlight the influence of changing behaviors regarding labor force participation and the capacity of the employed population to support the dependent population. Our indicator, which reports the number of individuals who have less than 15 years of life remaining to the employed population, has seen many changes since 1921. In 1921, 100 workers supported 48 individuals who have less than 15 years to live. The burden of mortality decreased to a minimum in 2008 (22%), then entered a period of growth which corresponds to the aging of the baby-boom generation. However, our projections show that the burden of mortality should reach a ceiling of around 30% in 2047. The evolution of the professional life cycle of individuals, both men and women, but mainly among women, temper the effect of the “burden” of people who will dying.
Canada projections aging mortality burden life cycle projection