Prédiction de la violation d’un seuil de 400 000 cellules/mL au réservoir de lait à l’aide du portrait et de la dynamique de santé du pis des troupeaux laitiers québécois
August 2012 represents an in important step in terms of milk quality for the Canadian bovine dairy producers because the upper tolerance limit for bulk tank somatic cell count (BTSCC) was lowered to 400 000 somatic cells per millilitre (c/mL). The objective of this study was to develop a predictive model of exceeding the BTSCC limit based on monthly individuals somatic cell count (SCC) measures obtained in the previous months. A database including DHI data from the year 2008 of 924 dairy herds in Québec, Canada was used. A logistic regression model for repeated measures was constructed. The final model included 6 variables related to monthly individual cow somatic cell count: mean individual linear score at the previous test, proportion of cows over 500 000 cells/mL at the previous test, mean herd annual daily milk production per cow, average days in milk at the previous test, proportion of healthy cows at previous test, proportion of chronic cows at previous test. The model has excellent discrimination between herd that exceeded and herd that did not exceed 400 000 cells/mL and can be use to advise dairy producers of impending risks of exceeding the BTSCC limit.
dairy cow bulk tank somatic cell count prediction model