Prédiction du cycle solaire en utilisant un modèle dynamo de type Babcock-Leighton
The first chapter of this work presents the solar cycle in aspects going from the observation of the solar surface activity to the evolution of the magnetic field. The second chapter is a summary of the different classes of methods used to predict the solar cycle with a focus on the methods involving numerical dynamo models and surface flux transport models. The third chapter presents the model used in this work to make a prediction of the maximum amplitude of solar cycle 25. It also presents the dataset used to force the model into the observed magnetic field configuration of the sun and exposes certain aspects of the model that needed recalibration. The fourth chapter presents the recalibration of the model on solar cycle 24 and the results of the prediction of the maximum of the upcoming solar cycle 25. We forecast a peak International Sunspot Number version 2 of 89+29-14 by the year 2025+0.89-1.05. We predict a 6 months delayed northern hemisphere but of amplitude 20\% higher than the south.
Solar cycle prediction Solar cycle 25 Numerical dynamo model Surface flux transport model