Évaluation de l’impact de la légalisation du cannabis sur les vendeurs canadiens actifs sur les cryptomarchés dans les trois mois suivant la légalisation
On October 17, 2018, the Liberal government of Canada legalized recreational cannabis with the goal of providing safe and controlled access to a quality product, while preventing criminals from enjoying the benefits associated with the drug trade. Such changes to the legal framework have raised many concerns from the public, including the effect of increased consumption. This master's thesis addresses another concern: proliferation of the black market. To this day, it is not known how cannabis traffickers will react to the legalization of the drugs they supply. The few existing studies based on official and self-reported data do not agree on the effect of legalization on the illicit supply of cannabis. In fact, no study has been carried in the specific context of the legalization of cannabis in Canada, although this is an unprecedented reform in North America. This thesis takes an innovative approach by using “digital traces” collected on the cryptomarket Dream Market, an anonymous virtual marketplace dedicated to the sale of illicit drugs, to describe and understand the impact of legalization on Canadian marijuana sellers active in this market. Regression models allowed us to estimate the effect of legalization on product availability, number of vendors, and revenue generated from the sale of marijuana. These same analyzes were used to detect the presence of tactical, target and substance displacement by vendors. Overall, this study shows that in the short term, legalization has had an effect on Canadian marijuana vendors’ activities, but this effect is not what would be expected in light of the government's public health and safety objectives. During the first trimester of legalization, the Canadian supply of marijuana in the cryptomarket increased significantly. In addition, contrary to what had been anticipated by the legislator, Canadian marijuana sellers’ incomes did not suffer significant declines after legalization. Finally, sellers seem to have anticipated the impacts of legalization on their longer-term revenue and have chosen to position themselves favorably in other types of markets. More specifically, sellers are advertising more in the US market and in other drug submarkets, primarily stimulants, cannabis products, and psychedelics.
Marijuana Adaptation Legalization Cryptomarkets Drug dealers