Modélisation spatiale des changements dans les milieux humides ouverts par automate cellulaire : étude de cas sur la région administrative de l’Abitibi-Témiscamingue, au Québec, Canada
Wetlands are among the most productive ecosystems that exist throughout the planet. Thirty five per cent of the world’s wetlands can be found in Canada, with an approximately eighty five percent located in the boreal forest However, these ecosystems are among the most threatened ecosystems due human disturbances. Regrettably, once a wetland has been disturbed it is difficult to restore it to its natural state. The study of the complexities around dynamic changes in wetlands can be approached by the use of modeling and spatiotemporal simulations as tools for assisting environmental conservation. Complex systems modeling approaches such as cellular automata coupled with statistical models allow us to simplify these complexities and understanding emerging patterns of complex systems, such as wetlands. This study proposes the simulation of open wetlands based on a hybrid model by logistic regression, Markov chain and cellular automata, in order to project future scenarios of open wetlands distribution in the administrative region of Abitibi-Témiscamingue, Quebec. This thesis consists of two parts: 1) wetland diagnosis and characterization of the study area; and 2) an article on the modeling of spatiotemporal changes in open wetlands using a hybrid model, to simulate spatial distribution of open wetlands for the years 2015, 2025, 2035, 2045 and 2055 in the Abitibi-Témiscamingue administrative region. Model simulation results showed an average increment, by decade, of over five percent between simulations from 2015 to 2055. The results agreed with the observed spatiotemporal patterns from Landsat imagery from 1985, 1995, and 2005. The observed and projected spatial distribution of open wetlands in the study region offer some insight of the dynamics of this fragile ecosystem. With an increase in open wetlands, habitat availability for waterfowl will as well augment, in addition to the services associated with them. The outcomes of this research bring new information and perspectives in terms of future open wetlands conservation policies.
Spatiotemporal Modeling Complex Systems Cellular Automata Logistic Regression Open Wetlands