Campylobactériose humaine et variations climatiques au Québec : a
nalyse de séries temporelles selon les modèles SARIMA et SARIMAX
At the global level, climate indicators are increasingly described as factors related to zoonosis. The main objective of this study was to verify the relationship between changes in monthly maximum ambient temperature and monthly total precipitation level (including snow and rain) and the cumulative monthly incidence of human campylobacteriosis in three health regions of Quebec with different climatic conditions: Montréal, Mauricie-et-Centre-du-Québec and Capitale-Nationale. A double time series analysis, SARIMA (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) and SARIMAX (Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous variables) was carried out over the period 2000-2015. For the three health regions, the campylobacteriosis cumulative monthly incidence followed a seasonal pattern with a peak between July and August. The SARIMAX models were the best models for assessing the association between the cumulative monthly incidence of human campylobacteriosis and the two climatic variables. A positive correlation between monthly maximum temperature and cumulative monthly incidence of human campylobacteriosis was observed for Montréal (p < 0.0001) and Mauricie-et-Centre-du-Québec (p = 0.0079) health regions. On the other hand, for total precipitation, the correlation was negative and significant only for Montréal (p = 0.0004). It remains to explore the link with several other climatic variables, such as rainfall, relative humidity and the length of the plant-growing season, as well as to develop SARIMAX models for campylobacteriosis incidence prediction.
Human campylobacteriosis Climatic factors Time-series analysis