TECHNICAL FIELD

The present invention relates to an information processing device, an information processing method, and a program.

The application is based on Japanese Patent Application No. 2017-065993 filed on Mar. 29, 2017, the content of which is incorporated herein by reference.

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION

In a plant such as a power generation plant, it is conceivable that a monitoring device collect state quantities of a target device constituting the plant such as a temperature and a pressure at the time of the operation of the target device, and the collected state quantities be used to execute maintenance, monitoring, and the like of the device.

It has been proposed that the monitoring device process the collected operation data such that an operator of the device can easily use them and execute the maintenance, monitoring, and the like of the device. For example, in Patent Document 1, it is proposed that, when a computer detects omission portions of collected operation data of an industrial plant, the computer execute a complementary process and calculate values of omission state quantities.

In addition, it is known that models such as a physical model and a statistical model are used when values of omission state quantities are set through a complementary process.

DOCUMENTS OF RELATED ART

Patent Documents

Patent Document 1: United States Patent Application, Publication No. 2016/0004794

SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION

Problems to be Solved by the Invention

Patent Document 1 discloses that an information processing device executes a complementary process to complement a value of an omission state quantity, but does not disclose a specific method of setting a value of an omission state quantity.

Each of models used in a complementary process has adaptation conditions that are set based on an operation state of a target device, and the like, and a value of estimation data having higher accuracy is calculated as the degree of conformity with the adaptation conditions increases. However, a computer does not process an estimation value of a state quantity in consideration of adaptation conditions of each of the models and does not set the processed value as a value of the state quantity.

The present invention is contrived in view of the above-described problems, and an object thereof is to appropriately specify state quantity values used to manage a target device based on an estimation value of a state quantity calculated using a plurality of models.

Means to Solve the Problems

According to a first aspect of the present invention, an information processing device includes a statistics estimation unit configured to estimate a value of a state quantity by using a statistical model constructed based on values of past state quantities of a target device, a physical estimation unit configured to estimate a value of a state quantity by using a physical model constructed based on design data of the target device, and a specification unit configured to specify a value to be used to manage the target device from the value estimated by the statistics estimation unit and the value estimated by the physical estimation unit based on deterioration of the target device with time.

According to a second aspect of the present invention, in the information processing device according to the first aspect, the specification unit may be configured to specify a value to be used to manage the target device based on the amount of values of the past state quantities used to construct the statistical model.

According to a third aspect of the present invention, in the information processing device according to the first aspect, the specification unit may be configured to specify a value to be used to manage the target device based on predetermined application conditions of the physical model.

According to a fourth aspect of the present invention, in the information processing device according to any one of the first to third aspects, the specification unit may be configured to specify a value to be used to manage the target device based on an operation time of the target device.

According to a fifth aspect of the present invention, the information processing device according to any one of the first to fourth aspects may further include a notification unit configured to issue a notification in a case where a difference between the value estimated by the statistics estimation unit and the value estimated by the physical estimation unit is equal to or greater than a predetermined value.

According to a sixth aspect of the present invention, the information processing device according to any one of the first to fifth aspects may further include a model updating unit configured to update a statistical model based on the values of the past state quantities used to construct the statistical model, in which the specification unit may be configured to specify a value to be used to manage the target device by using the updated statistical model.

According to a seventh aspect of the present invention, in the information processing device according to any one of the first to sixth aspects, the specification unit may be configured to specify a weighted average value of the value estimated by the statistics estimation unit and the value estimated by the physical estimation unit using weights according to deterioration of the target device with time as a value to be used to manage the target device.

According to an eighth aspect of the present invention, an information processing method includes estimating a value of a state quantity by using a statistical model constructed based on values of past state quantities of a target device, estimating a value of a state quantity by using a physical model constructed based on design data of the target device, and specifying a value to be used to manage the target device from the value estimated using the statistical model and the value estimated using the physical model based on deterioration of the target device with time.

According to a ninth aspect of the present invention, a program causes a computer to estimate a value of a state quantity by using a statistical model constructed based on values of past state quantities of a target device, estimate a value of a state quantity by using a physical model constructed based on design data of the target device, and specify a value to be used to manage the target device from the value estimated using the statistical model and the value estimated using the physical model based on deterioration of the target device with time.

Effects of the Invention

According to at least one aspect of the above-described aspects, the information processing device specifies values to be used to manage a target device from an estimation value of a statistical model and an estimation value of a physical model based on deterioration of a target device with time. Thereby, it is possible to appropriately specify a value of a state quantity to be used to manage the target device.

