<story><title>Mobile is Eating the World</title><url>http://a16z.com/2014/10/28/mobile-is-eating-the-world/</url></story><parent_chain><item><author>marknutter</author><text>&amp;gt; That said, there might be a convergence where mobile devices learn to run desktop software, and can be docked to a mouse&amp;#x2F;keyboard&amp;#x2F;monitor.&lt;p&gt;I never understand this prediction. That&amp;#x27;s a bit like saying I don&amp;#x27;t need a car because I could just dock my bicycle into some sort of enclosure with four wheels. Tablets, smartphones, and laptops&amp;#x2F;desktops were all built for different purposes and cannot be full replacements for each other, just like a bicycle can&amp;#x27;t fully replace a car without some serious sacrifices.</text></item><item><author>pfitzsimmons</author><text>If you look at the biomechanics, it does seem like a keyboard + mouse + &amp;gt;=20&amp;quot; screen is the optimal setup for doing actual work. A keyboard is simply the most efficient way to get information into a computer (the exception is that some graphics editors work might work better with a multitouch screen, it will be interesting to see if someone builds a touch-first photoshop killer). That said, there might be a convergence where mobile devices learn to run desktop software, and can be docked to a mouse&amp;#x2F;keyboard&amp;#x2F;monitor. But we are still a long ways from that point, and there is no great incentive to build office suites for mobile devices that are efficient for power&amp;#x2F;work users.&lt;p&gt;Mobile is great for 1) consuming content 2) interacting with your extended environment when you are not grounded to a computer (summoning an Uber, paying with an app, etc.) The money in content consumption will go to either the content creators or the digital sharecroppers (Facebook).&lt;p&gt;So the question is, are there large untapped areas where a phone could be used to interact with ones environment? What kind of day-to-day things could be enhanced with internet connected software?</text></item><item><author>cageface</author><text>&lt;i&gt;There is no point in drawing a distinction between the future of technology and the future of mobile.&lt;/i&gt;&lt;p&gt;I find Evans&amp;#x27; analysis of mobile a bit hyperbolic. Yes the growth of mobile is explosive and, in some cases, it&amp;#x27;s displacing older technology. But for a lot of use cases small touch screen devices are simply inadequate. It&amp;#x27;s probably true that a lot of people that used to use desktop or laptop computers just to check email and Facebook have shifted that activity to their phones and tablets. But its equally true that these devices are still really only good for quick, informal communication and browsing. Despite the best efforts of Apple and Samsung to persuade us otherwise, tablets are lousy for getting real work done.&lt;p&gt;So we find ourselves in the ironic situation of a domain that is experiencing almost unprecedented growth but in which almost nobody is making money except Facebook and the vendors of what are essentially gimmicky slot machine games. My take on this is that the market for richer desktop&amp;#x2F;laptop software isn&amp;#x27;t going anywhere soon. People that need to edit complex spreadsheets, compose scores for films, analyze genomes, and render 3d effects need real computers. As a developer this kind of customer is in many ways a better customer to serve than a teen snapping selfies on a phone.</text></item></parent_chain><comment><author>skolor</author><text>Even if I had a full scale performance in a cell phone with great docking capabilities, I probably would rather have a separate desktop computer for working. Just being able to compartmentalize &amp;quot;social stuff&amp;quot; on my phone, and &amp;quot;work stuff&amp;quot; on a desktop tends to vastly improve my performance.</text></comment>
<story><title>Mobile is Eating the World</title><url>http://a16z.com/2014/10/28/mobile-is-eating-the-world/</url></story><parent_chain><item><author>marknutter</author><text>&amp;gt; That said, there might be a convergence where mobile devices learn to run desktop software, and can be docked to a mouse&amp;#x2F;keyboard&amp;#x2F;monitor.&lt;p&gt;I never understand this prediction. That&amp;#x27;s a bit like saying I don&amp;#x27;t need a car because I could just dock my bicycle into some sort of enclosure with four wheels. Tablets, smartphones, and laptops&amp;#x2F;desktops were all built for different purposes and cannot be full replacements for each other, just like a bicycle can&amp;#x27;t fully replace a car without some serious sacrifices.</text></item><item><author>pfitzsimmons</author><text>If you look at the biomechanics, it does seem like a keyboard + mouse + &amp;gt;=20&amp;quot; screen is the optimal setup for doing actual work. A keyboard is simply the most efficient way to get information into a computer (the exception is that some graphics editors work might work better with a multitouch screen, it will be interesting to see if someone builds a touch-first photoshop killer). That said, there might be a convergence where mobile devices learn to run desktop software, and can be docked to a mouse&amp;#x2F;keyboard&amp;#x2F;monitor. But we are still a long ways from that point, and there is no great incentive to build office suites for mobile devices that are efficient for power&amp;#x2F;work users.&lt;p&gt;Mobile is great for 1) consuming content 2) interacting with your extended environment when you are not grounded to a computer (summoning an Uber, paying with an app, etc.) The money in content consumption will go to either the content creators or the digital sharecroppers (Facebook).&lt;p&gt;So the question is, are there large untapped areas where a phone could be used to interact with ones environment? What kind of day-to-day things could be enhanced with internet connected software?</text></item><item><author>cageface</author><text>&lt;i&gt;There is no point in drawing a distinction between the future of technology and the future of mobile.&lt;/i&gt;&lt;p&gt;I find Evans&amp;#x27; analysis of mobile a bit hyperbolic. Yes the growth of mobile is explosive and, in some cases, it&amp;#x27;s displacing older technology. But for a lot of use cases small touch screen devices are simply inadequate. It&amp;#x27;s probably true that a lot of people that used to use desktop or laptop computers just to check email and Facebook have shifted that activity to their phones and tablets. But its equally true that these devices are still really only good for quick, informal communication and browsing. Despite the best efforts of Apple and Samsung to persuade us otherwise, tablets are lousy for getting real work done.&lt;p&gt;So we find ourselves in the ironic situation of a domain that is experiencing almost unprecedented growth but in which almost nobody is making money except Facebook and the vendors of what are essentially gimmicky slot machine games. My take on this is that the market for richer desktop&amp;#x2F;laptop software isn&amp;#x27;t going anywhere soon. People that need to edit complex spreadsheets, compose scores for films, analyze genomes, and render 3d effects need real computers. As a developer this kind of customer is in many ways a better customer to serve than a teen snapping selfies on a phone.</text></item></parent_chain><comment><author>InclinedPlane</author><text>Not the same thing.&lt;p&gt;In 5 or 10 years dockable tablets are going to be every-goddamn-where, especially in business. It just makes sense, and is too all around practical. And for most computer uses, even &amp;quot;intensive&amp;quot; ones, it&amp;#x27;s perfect. You get portability plus productivity in the docked configuration plus huge economic benefits. Tablets are mostly just screens, batteries, and a handful of chips, all of which are super amenable to economies of scale in manufacture. Tablets are going to be cheaper than dirt eventually, and because a tablet can be a self-contained computer it&amp;#x27;ll tend to be the default computing choice. The biggest thing missing today is primarily good software.</text></comment>