<story><title>TSMC is making the best of a bad geopolitical situation</title><url>https://www.economist.com/business/2023/01/19/tsmc-is-making-the-best-of-a-bad-geopolitical-situation</url></story><parent_chain><item><author>komali2</author><text>I suspect the PRC won&amp;#x27;t outright bomb much of Taiwan but instead go straight for the presidential palace in Taipei and try to force an ROC capitulation early.&lt;p&gt;I think they&amp;#x27;re counting on the ruling class &amp;#x2F; landowners &amp;#x2F; capitalists to pressure the government to capitulate at fear of property destruction, which I also expect to be in line with reality. Doing capitalism in a country like taiwan is better than in the PRC, but doing it in the PRC is better than not being able to do it at all because all your assets were obliterated.&lt;p&gt;What I think none of these people are counting on is that there are rabidly anti CPC people here in Taiwan, leftist or otherwise, and some of these people engage in post-military service training and drilling. I suspect that if the above comes to pass and the CPC is successful in forcing an ROC surrender, the factories are burning one way or the other, due to &amp;quot;self-sabotage&amp;quot; by workers or guerillas.&lt;p&gt;Then the PLA gets to have fun for a decade chasing guerillas around the choking thick jungle and mountains that make up the majority of the landmass in Taiwan. Many of these will be indigenous who have lived in the mountains for generations and per capita by demographic make up more of the (non conscripted) military than any other demographic.&lt;p&gt;I don&amp;#x27;t think any of this will come to pass though because I, like most people in Taiwan (including the usa consulate staff), believe the possibility of invasion is slim.</text></item><item><author>ksec</author><text>&amp;gt;&lt;i&gt;“Complete nonsense,” retorts Pierre Ferragu of New Street Research, a financial firm. tsmc has almost simultaneously launched a new fab in Taiwan, with four times the wafer capacity—and more advanced technology—than the two proposed Arizona foundries. Its bet on America is more of a long-term insurance policy than an immediate game-changer. It enables tsmc to start the tough job of recruiting a workforce and amassing suppliers in America, providing a baseline for expansion “if the Chinese are crazy enough to bomb Taiwan”. For the foreseeable future, though, most r&amp;amp;d is likely to remain in Taiwan. So will at least four-fifths of tmsc’s capacity.&lt;/i&gt;&lt;p&gt;It is unfortunate the truth and decent analysts dont get enough press coverage because they dont fit the narrative of current trend.&lt;p&gt;-  The only way to understand the Press is to remember that they pander to their readers&amp;#x27; prejudices.</text></item></parent_chain><comment><author>simonh</author><text>The old ‘capture the leadership and the country will surrender in a few days’ strategy. Works every time. The thing is I’m sure the PRC Intelligence service have done analyses of what would happen if Russia invaded Ukraine, and what would happen if China invaded Taiwan. I wonder what the first one said? If the credibility of the Taiwan scenario is tied in Xi’s mind to the credibility of the first, that would give us a rough idea of the likelihood he might go for it.&lt;p&gt;The other problem is that China is way more dependent on outside trade than Russia. They rely on food and energy imports too much, while Russia is self sufficient in both. The same sanctions as on Russia would bring China to its knees in months. In case anyone say “but everyone was saying the sanctions on Russia would cripple them too”, no, not everyone was saying that. The same magazine, The Economist, was explaining why that wasn’t going to happen right from the start.</text></comment>
<story><title>TSMC is making the best of a bad geopolitical situation</title><url>https://www.economist.com/business/2023/01/19/tsmc-is-making-the-best-of-a-bad-geopolitical-situation</url></story><parent_chain><item><author>komali2</author><text>I suspect the PRC won&amp;#x27;t outright bomb much of Taiwan but instead go straight for the presidential palace in Taipei and try to force an ROC capitulation early.&lt;p&gt;I think they&amp;#x27;re counting on the ruling class &amp;#x2F; landowners &amp;#x2F; capitalists to pressure the government to capitulate at fear of property destruction, which I also expect to be in line with reality. Doing capitalism in a country like taiwan is better than in the PRC, but doing it in the PRC is better than not being able to do it at all because all your assets were obliterated.&lt;p&gt;What I think none of these people are counting on is that there are rabidly anti CPC people here in Taiwan, leftist or otherwise, and some of these people engage in post-military service training and drilling. I suspect that if the above comes to pass and the CPC is successful in forcing an ROC surrender, the factories are burning one way or the other, due to &amp;quot;self-sabotage&amp;quot; by workers or guerillas.&lt;p&gt;Then the PLA gets to have fun for a decade chasing guerillas around the choking thick jungle and mountains that make up the majority of the landmass in Taiwan. Many of these will be indigenous who have lived in the mountains for generations and per capita by demographic make up more of the (non conscripted) military than any other demographic.&lt;p&gt;I don&amp;#x27;t think any of this will come to pass though because I, like most people in Taiwan (including the usa consulate staff), believe the possibility of invasion is slim.</text></item><item><author>ksec</author><text>&amp;gt;&lt;i&gt;“Complete nonsense,” retorts Pierre Ferragu of New Street Research, a financial firm. tsmc has almost simultaneously launched a new fab in Taiwan, with four times the wafer capacity—and more advanced technology—than the two proposed Arizona foundries. Its bet on America is more of a long-term insurance policy than an immediate game-changer. It enables tsmc to start the tough job of recruiting a workforce and amassing suppliers in America, providing a baseline for expansion “if the Chinese are crazy enough to bomb Taiwan”. For the foreseeable future, though, most r&amp;amp;d is likely to remain in Taiwan. So will at least four-fifths of tmsc’s capacity.&lt;/i&gt;&lt;p&gt;It is unfortunate the truth and decent analysts dont get enough press coverage because they dont fit the narrative of current trend.&lt;p&gt;-  The only way to understand the Press is to remember that they pander to their readers&amp;#x27; prejudices.</text></item></parent_chain><comment><author>mrtksn</author><text>&amp;gt; instead go straight for the presidential palace in Taipei&lt;p&gt;Will that work if the politicians work from home?&lt;p&gt;On the recent Brazilian uprising, when the election losers stormed the capital they found out that it is a holiday and there’s no some special object in the government buildings which makes you the new leader once you physically obtain it.&lt;p&gt;All they ended up doing was vandalism.</text></comment>