<story><title>The coming long-run slowdown in corporate profit growth and stock returns</title><url>https://www.federalreserve.gov//econres/notes/feds-notes/the-coming-long-run-slowdown-in-corporate-profit-growth-and-stock-returns-20220906.html</url></story><parent_chain><item><author>mmaunder</author><text>Excellent article that paints a grim picture in an understated way. To put it differently:&lt;p&gt;We&amp;#x27;ve seen a huge run-up in the stock market thanks to cheap domestic and cheap foreign labor, globalization, historically low interest rates and historically low corporate taxes.&lt;p&gt;Interest rates are rising massively and globally to combat inflation.&lt;p&gt;Labor prices are increasing, globally.&lt;p&gt;There is a global decoupling thanks to the Russia&amp;#x2F;Ukraine situation and the China&amp;#x2F;Taiwan tension. This is bringing the era of globalization to its end.&lt;p&gt;Corporate US taxes have been as low as they&amp;#x27;ll get for a long time due to the TCJA and will most likely only go up from current rates.&lt;p&gt;Given all these factors combined, it&amp;#x27;s unlikely that price&amp;#x2F;earnings will hold at the current high ratio i.e. stock prices have a long way to fall still. This article was published almost two months ago, but I believe it will be relevant for the next several years. We&amp;#x27;re in for a long slow decline and then a plateau. The era of cheap labor, free money, low taxes and open global markets has come to an end.</text></item></parent_chain><comment><author>lamontcg</author><text>You&amp;#x27;re sort of describing the current conditions without any analysis of how those conditions are likely to change.  For example, the high interest rates right now are due to central banks looking at the rising labor prices and inflation and probably overreacting.  It is very likely that the next step is going to be a massive global slowdown.&lt;p&gt;You&amp;#x27;re also very likely massively overstating the case that Russia and Taiwan mean that &amp;quot;globalization has ended&amp;quot;.&lt;p&gt;I do think there&amp;#x27;s important secular changes happening (the tight labor market and inflation are very obviously something new that hasn&amp;#x27;t happened in 30 years), but I strongly doubt the idea that everything has turned on a dime 180 degrees to the opposite.</text></comment>
<story><title>The coming long-run slowdown in corporate profit growth and stock returns</title><url>https://www.federalreserve.gov//econres/notes/feds-notes/the-coming-long-run-slowdown-in-corporate-profit-growth-and-stock-returns-20220906.html</url></story><parent_chain><item><author>mmaunder</author><text>Excellent article that paints a grim picture in an understated way. To put it differently:&lt;p&gt;We&amp;#x27;ve seen a huge run-up in the stock market thanks to cheap domestic and cheap foreign labor, globalization, historically low interest rates and historically low corporate taxes.&lt;p&gt;Interest rates are rising massively and globally to combat inflation.&lt;p&gt;Labor prices are increasing, globally.&lt;p&gt;There is a global decoupling thanks to the Russia&amp;#x2F;Ukraine situation and the China&amp;#x2F;Taiwan tension. This is bringing the era of globalization to its end.&lt;p&gt;Corporate US taxes have been as low as they&amp;#x27;ll get for a long time due to the TCJA and will most likely only go up from current rates.&lt;p&gt;Given all these factors combined, it&amp;#x27;s unlikely that price&amp;#x2F;earnings will hold at the current high ratio i.e. stock prices have a long way to fall still. This article was published almost two months ago, but I believe it will be relevant for the next several years. We&amp;#x27;re in for a long slow decline and then a plateau. The era of cheap labor, free money, low taxes and open global markets has come to an end.</text></item></parent_chain><comment><author>afpx</author><text>How can this be? The world still seems flooded with cash, huge populations still aren’t industrialized and want development, there’s shortages of products and services in demand by middle classes. Why wouldn&amp;#x27;t this point to more growth?</text></comment>