<story><title>Uber is doomed</title><url>http://jalopnik.com/uber-is-doomed-1792634203</url></story><parent_chain><item><author>1_2__3</author><text>Could we maybe have a sober conversation about Uber that doesn&amp;#x27;t involve self driving cars? Because I hate to tell you, but whatever reckoning is coming for Uber will come long before self driving cars are viable. I do not understand why so many HN commenters ignore the reality of self driving car tech and regulation and think it&amp;#x27;s right around the corner. It&amp;#x27;s so far away that the only relevance it has to this conversation is already in the article (and completely disagrees with your claim): if Uber is planing to rely on self driving cars they&amp;#x27;re already dead. The tech will not be ready in time for them.</text></item><item><author>salimmadjd</author><text>1 - Uber has a weak network effect (drivers drive Lyft and Uber) same for consumers.&lt;p&gt;2 - Uber is not very scalable (this is why they have to burn so much money to grow)&lt;p&gt;3 - Self-driving cars will actually destroy Uber&amp;#x27;s business.&lt;p&gt;Uber = Driver -&amp;gt; Uber -&amp;gt; Passenger. Self-driving cars will remove the Driver from the equation. Uber becomes a consumer facing app. Very vulnerable to Apple and Google should they ever want to get into that business. I think Google maps and Siri will become the interface to care sharing eventually as Apple&amp;#x2F;Google will have far more access to mobile experience that Uber will ever get.&lt;p&gt;I had made the above points before and predicted Uber will probably go the ways of AOL. It seems like more and more people are beginning see that too.</text></item></parent_chain><comment><author>dnautics</author><text>I think self-driving cars are going to be viable, very very fast - but uber will implode much faster.  When it implodes, it will happen much faster than anyone expects.  There will be lots of collateral damage, as the rest of the current incarnation of the SV insanity will be exposed to the deflation of the unicorn narrative.&lt;p&gt;I think a huge part of it will be when it becomes really really obvious that Uber will never be able to IPO, the employees there will have to leave.  The gravitational pull of the sunk cost fallacy (with respect to any exercised options the employees have) will be overwhelmed by the need to &amp;#x27;find other options&amp;#x27; faster than their colleagues and it becomes a race to not be the last one off the sinking ship.&lt;p&gt;1_2__3 - while I agree with your overall thesis, I think it&amp;#x27;s reasonable to bring up self driving cars since they are in the original article, after all.</text></comment>
<story><title>Uber is doomed</title><url>http://jalopnik.com/uber-is-doomed-1792634203</url></story><parent_chain><item><author>1_2__3</author><text>Could we maybe have a sober conversation about Uber that doesn&amp;#x27;t involve self driving cars? Because I hate to tell you, but whatever reckoning is coming for Uber will come long before self driving cars are viable. I do not understand why so many HN commenters ignore the reality of self driving car tech and regulation and think it&amp;#x27;s right around the corner. It&amp;#x27;s so far away that the only relevance it has to this conversation is already in the article (and completely disagrees with your claim): if Uber is planing to rely on self driving cars they&amp;#x27;re already dead. The tech will not be ready in time for them.</text></item><item><author>salimmadjd</author><text>1 - Uber has a weak network effect (drivers drive Lyft and Uber) same for consumers.&lt;p&gt;2 - Uber is not very scalable (this is why they have to burn so much money to grow)&lt;p&gt;3 - Self-driving cars will actually destroy Uber&amp;#x27;s business.&lt;p&gt;Uber = Driver -&amp;gt; Uber -&amp;gt; Passenger. Self-driving cars will remove the Driver from the equation. Uber becomes a consumer facing app. Very vulnerable to Apple and Google should they ever want to get into that business. I think Google maps and Siri will become the interface to care sharing eventually as Apple&amp;#x2F;Google will have far more access to mobile experience that Uber will ever get.&lt;p&gt;I had made the above points before and predicted Uber will probably go the ways of AOL. It seems like more and more people are beginning see that too.</text></item></parent_chain><comment><author>ckastner</author><text>I agree that this focus on self-driving cars is very premature, but then you are left with its current business, which so far seems to be hemorrhaging money and with no change of that in sight.</text></comment>