<story><title>Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K</title><url>https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-14/u-k-yield-curve-inverts-for-first-time-since-financial-crisis</url></story><parent_chain><item><author>throwaway5752</author><text>The Fed does not have the tools at its disposal that it did in 2008, they have been exhausted. The leadership on either side of the 2008 transition was much better at every level. Also, 2008 was a balance sheet depression that was more tractable to fix with monetary approaches.&lt;p&gt;What is happening, right now, is literally what happened in the Great Depression (with the concurrent reemergence of nationalism) and is what led to two back-to-back world wars &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.dartmouth.edu&amp;#x2F;~dirwin&amp;#x2F;Eichengreen-IrwinJEH.pdf&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.dartmouth.edu&amp;#x2F;~dirwin&amp;#x2F;Eichengreen-IrwinJEH.pdf&lt;/a&gt;</text></item><item><author>tlogan</author><text>And things will be worse because China is also heading into recession.&lt;p&gt;You know, you need sell all these products to somebody... And when US consumer stops buying new iPhones (or what ever) combined with recession then situation is going be really really tough.&lt;p&gt;So this will be worse that 2008. Much worse. Back in 2008, China was growing and helping to ease the recession. I do not think China&amp;#x27;s economy will grow during this cycle.</text></item><item><author>throwaway5752</author><text>Everyone serious knew that a trade war would set a recession in motion, and that it would be a trade war the US would lose because of the directionality of the trade. The thought has always been that the president was using a high leverage negotiating strategy (see &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.newyorker.com&amp;#x2F;news&amp;#x2F;news-desk&amp;#x2F;for-trump-diplomacy-is-quite-literally-a-four-letter-word&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.newyorker.com&amp;#x2F;news&amp;#x2F;news-desk&amp;#x2F;for-trump-diplomacy...&lt;/a&gt;, for example) to extract maximal concessions from PRC. But in the end, most of the people involving in mid and long range investment decisions thought that they could model him as a rational actor. What we are seeing is the investment community&amp;#x27;s realization this might not be true. You can look for many recent examples of shifts in investment activity (&lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.autoblog.com&amp;#x2F;2019&amp;#x2F;08&amp;#x2F;13&amp;#x2F;ford-gm-preparing-for-economic-downturn&amp;#x2F;&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.autoblog.com&amp;#x2F;2019&amp;#x2F;08&amp;#x2F;13&amp;#x2F;ford-gm-preparing-for-ec...&lt;/a&gt;).</text></item></parent_chain><comment><author>ianai</author><text>Dates for WW1: 7&amp;#x2F;28&amp;#x2F;1914-11&amp;#x2F;11&amp;#x2F;1918&lt;p&gt;Dates for WW2: 9&amp;#x2F;1&amp;#x2F;1939-9&amp;#x2F;2&amp;#x2F;1945&lt;p&gt;Dates for Great Depression: 10&amp;#x2F;29&amp;#x2F;1929 to 1939</text></comment>
<story><title>Yield Curves Invert in U.S., U.K</title><url>https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-14/u-k-yield-curve-inverts-for-first-time-since-financial-crisis</url></story><parent_chain><item><author>throwaway5752</author><text>The Fed does not have the tools at its disposal that it did in 2008, they have been exhausted. The leadership on either side of the 2008 transition was much better at every level. Also, 2008 was a balance sheet depression that was more tractable to fix with monetary approaches.&lt;p&gt;What is happening, right now, is literally what happened in the Great Depression (with the concurrent reemergence of nationalism) and is what led to two back-to-back world wars &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.dartmouth.edu&amp;#x2F;~dirwin&amp;#x2F;Eichengreen-IrwinJEH.pdf&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.dartmouth.edu&amp;#x2F;~dirwin&amp;#x2F;Eichengreen-IrwinJEH.pdf&lt;/a&gt;</text></item><item><author>tlogan</author><text>And things will be worse because China is also heading into recession.&lt;p&gt;You know, you need sell all these products to somebody... And when US consumer stops buying new iPhones (or what ever) combined with recession then situation is going be really really tough.&lt;p&gt;So this will be worse that 2008. Much worse. Back in 2008, China was growing and helping to ease the recession. I do not think China&amp;#x27;s economy will grow during this cycle.</text></item><item><author>throwaway5752</author><text>Everyone serious knew that a trade war would set a recession in motion, and that it would be a trade war the US would lose because of the directionality of the trade. The thought has always been that the president was using a high leverage negotiating strategy (see &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.newyorker.com&amp;#x2F;news&amp;#x2F;news-desk&amp;#x2F;for-trump-diplomacy-is-quite-literally-a-four-letter-word&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.newyorker.com&amp;#x2F;news&amp;#x2F;news-desk&amp;#x2F;for-trump-diplomacy...&lt;/a&gt;, for example) to extract maximal concessions from PRC. But in the end, most of the people involving in mid and long range investment decisions thought that they could model him as a rational actor. What we are seeing is the investment community&amp;#x27;s realization this might not be true. You can look for many recent examples of shifts in investment activity (&lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.autoblog.com&amp;#x2F;2019&amp;#x2F;08&amp;#x2F;13&amp;#x2F;ford-gm-preparing-for-economic-downturn&amp;#x2F;&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.autoblog.com&amp;#x2F;2019&amp;#x2F;08&amp;#x2F;13&amp;#x2F;ford-gm-preparing-for-ec...&lt;/a&gt;).</text></item></parent_chain><comment><author>quotemstr</author><text>The great depression was after one of those wars. I think you can make a case that the global economic and social excesses of the 1920s led to a hard crash, the rise of aggressive ideological movements, and, eventually, the second world war. The first world war was something else entirely, the last gasp of the old &amp;quot;Concert of Europe&amp;quot; balance of power stuff. After the first world war, the world was a completely different place and different rules applied.</text></comment>