<story><title>Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military presence in Ukraine</title><url>https://www.znak.com/2021-12-16/rostovskiy_sud_opublikoval_prigovor_s_podtverzhdeniem_prisutstviya_voennyh_rf_v_donbasse</url></story><parent_chain><item><author>jmacd</author><text>I think we in the west need something like a &amp;#x27;doctrine of the foregone conclusion&amp;#x27;.&lt;p&gt;Often things are very obvious, even notorious, but because we do not want to face the eventuality, we do things like negotiate or perseverate our denials all while the situation escalates.&lt;p&gt;If NATO and the west are ready and willing to defend Ukraine (I suspect we are not), in which case a significant increase in our own presence would have made sense much earlier.&lt;p&gt;If we are not willing, then the Ukrainians really should be told that and given an opportunity to negotiate or find their own way.&lt;p&gt;I&amp;#x27;m not sure that Cold War style standoffs via obscurity work the way they used to, there is just too much information available. The job is not to hide information or turn a blind eye to it, but rather to create as much or more activity and information as the opposing side.</text></item></parent_chain><comment><author>rich_sasha</author><text>I suspect Ukraine was told quite clearly what they can expect, and as you say, it comes short of NATO boots on the ground, or wings in the sky.&lt;p&gt;I&amp;#x27;d say no one ever really &lt;i&gt;wants&lt;/i&gt; to defend an ally, it&amp;#x27;s more of a pros-and-cons balance. For smaller countries, solidarity within NATO is building goodwill capital for when they need help (e.g. with allies following US into Afghanistan). For large countries, this is part of their empire-building: showing allies you support them makes them more favourably disposed to you. All-around, even for the US, it raises the bar for anyone contemplating an attack on a NATO member.&lt;p&gt;Ukraine is a colleague but not an ally, so these don&amp;#x27;t really apply as much.&lt;p&gt;That said, the West wants an independent, pro-western Ukraine (just not enough to fight a direct war with Russia over), and seems unusually resolute, so I wouldn&amp;#x27;t be surprised if some truly punitive actions were to be taken. Exclusion from SWIFT was one proposal, interfering with Russian energy exports would be catastrophic for Russia. The latter is very difficult for Europe in winter, but who knows; the US could open the tap with their gas, also if the whole thing gets delayed by a few months, it could be a very different perspective.</text></comment>
<story><title>Russian court accidentally confirmed Russian military presence in Ukraine</title><url>https://www.znak.com/2021-12-16/rostovskiy_sud_opublikoval_prigovor_s_podtverzhdeniem_prisutstviya_voennyh_rf_v_donbasse</url></story><parent_chain><item><author>jmacd</author><text>I think we in the west need something like a &amp;#x27;doctrine of the foregone conclusion&amp;#x27;.&lt;p&gt;Often things are very obvious, even notorious, but because we do not want to face the eventuality, we do things like negotiate or perseverate our denials all while the situation escalates.&lt;p&gt;If NATO and the west are ready and willing to defend Ukraine (I suspect we are not), in which case a significant increase in our own presence would have made sense much earlier.&lt;p&gt;If we are not willing, then the Ukrainians really should be told that and given an opportunity to negotiate or find their own way.&lt;p&gt;I&amp;#x27;m not sure that Cold War style standoffs via obscurity work the way they used to, there is just too much information available. The job is not to hide information or turn a blind eye to it, but rather to create as much or more activity and information as the opposing side.</text></item></parent_chain><comment><author>3pt14159</author><text>The west will not protect Ukraine for two giant reasons.&lt;p&gt;1. Russia has gas over Germany.&lt;p&gt;2. Amassing troops on Russia&amp;#x27;s boarder without an alliance with Ukraine is politically challenging.&lt;p&gt;3. America is sick of war and doesn&amp;#x27;t have a good looking balance sheet.&lt;p&gt;4. China is the new meta. Taiwan is tough enough.&lt;p&gt;5. Joining Nato is a process starts with have a certain level of democratic freedom and market economy that Ukraine is in the process of attaining. If we defend them right now, then it undermines the reforms we want them to make before joining. Once they&amp;#x27;re in, they&amp;#x27;re our problem.&lt;p&gt;6. Covid and knock-on effects is still the focus.&lt;p&gt;Doesn&amp;#x27;t mean I love it, but it&amp;#x27;s the reality. Personally I&amp;#x27;d do things differently, but I don&amp;#x27;t exactly have presidential intelligence reports now do I?</text></comment>