<story><title>Russia’s Possible Invasion of Ukraine</title><url>https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-possible-invasion-ukraine</url></story><parent_chain><item><author>mensetmanusman</author><text>This is surprisingly detailed:&lt;p&gt;“ Weather: An invasion that begins in January or February would have the advantage of frozen ground to support the cross-country movement of a large mechanized force. It would also mean operating in conditions of freezing cold and limited visibility. January is usually the coldest and snowiest month of the year in Ukraine, averaging 8.5 hours of daylight during the month and increasing to 10 hours by February.8 This would put a premium on night fighting capabilities to keep an advance moving forward. Should fighting continue into March, mechanized forces would have to deal with the infamous Rasputitsa, or thaw.”</text></item></parent_chain><comment><author>arbuge</author><text>&amp;gt; Should fighting continue into March, mechanized forces would have to deal with the infamous Rasputitsa, or thaw.”&lt;p&gt;That&amp;#x27;s a key point. It does go to show that the Russians expected this to be a very short affair. I wonder if they have any real contingency plans for when that thaw sets in.</text></comment>
<story><title>Russia’s Possible Invasion of Ukraine</title><url>https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-possible-invasion-ukraine</url></story><parent_chain><item><author>mensetmanusman</author><text>This is surprisingly detailed:&lt;p&gt;“ Weather: An invasion that begins in January or February would have the advantage of frozen ground to support the cross-country movement of a large mechanized force. It would also mean operating in conditions of freezing cold and limited visibility. January is usually the coldest and snowiest month of the year in Ukraine, averaging 8.5 hours of daylight during the month and increasing to 10 hours by February.8 This would put a premium on night fighting capabilities to keep an advance moving forward. Should fighting continue into March, mechanized forces would have to deal with the infamous Rasputitsa, or thaw.”</text></item></parent_chain><comment><author>pjc50</author><text>Meanwhile social media has plenty of images of alleged Russian vehicles that have got stuck.&lt;p&gt;It&amp;#x27;s not just ordinary squishy ground, the area between Belarus and Kyiv is the Pripyat marshes!</text></comment>