<story><title>Prediction Markets: Tales from the Election</title><url>https://vitalik.ca/general/2021/02/18/election.html</url></story><parent_chain><item><author>ahelwer</author><text>Yep, it clearly leads into assassination markets - for example, opening a large bet that person X will die on a specific date.</text></item><item><author>ErikAugust</author><text>&amp;quot;The best way to predict the future is to create it.&amp;quot;&lt;p&gt;I always thought the the problem with prediction markets is you have the incentive to make the prediction come true. And that gets ugly fast. But hell, I guess that&amp;#x27;s what all this is at the end of the day.</text></item></parent_chain><comment><author>solveit</author><text>Yes, just like you can short Tesla and assassinate Musk.&lt;p&gt;This is ridiculous, regulate prediction markets like any other financial market (in particular, your identity should be traceable) and then all your clever plan does is get your funds frozen pending a very thorough investigation.</text></comment>
<story><title>Prediction Markets: Tales from the Election</title><url>https://vitalik.ca/general/2021/02/18/election.html</url></story><parent_chain><item><author>ahelwer</author><text>Yep, it clearly leads into assassination markets - for example, opening a large bet that person X will die on a specific date.</text></item><item><author>ErikAugust</author><text>&amp;quot;The best way to predict the future is to create it.&amp;quot;&lt;p&gt;I always thought the the problem with prediction markets is you have the incentive to make the prediction come true. And that gets ugly fast. But hell, I guess that&amp;#x27;s what all this is at the end of the day.</text></item></parent_chain><comment><author>btilly</author><text>Opening the bet that they die on a particular date is a problem because they know when to be careful.&lt;p&gt;Opening a market on when they will die that goes to the person who is closest to the right date, now any would-be assassin can place their bet and try to win.  And the target may know that people are hunting for them, but won&amp;#x27;t be forewarned of when.</text></comment>