<story><title>How Does This End?</title><url>https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/03/03/how-does-this-end-pub-86570</url></story><parent_chain><item><author>redisman</author><text>To me the likeliest scenario is still:&lt;p&gt;- Z and P after further destruction of Ukraine agree to ceding Crimea and some Eastern Ukraine and promise not to host nukes just to stop further carnage. Russia throws in some funds to rebuild</text></item><item><author>paulryanrogers</author><text>I&amp;#x27;m not convinced this appeal to authority proves there are only two ways out. Beyond escalation or occupation plenty of scenarios look just as plausible. And there&amp;#x27;s a risk that fixating on only these two suggested outcomes may reinforce them, like a self fulfilling prophecy.</text></item></parent_chain><comment><author>paulryanrogers</author><text>Didn&amp;#x27;t Ukraine already give up nukes for security assurances in 1994? And here they are being invaded by one of the signatories?!&lt;p&gt;Seems like nukes, NATO, or EU membership are the only way to be sure Russia won&amp;#x27;t invade, if you&amp;#x27;re a neighbor.</text></comment>
<story><title>How Does This End?</title><url>https://carnegieendowment.org/2022/03/03/how-does-this-end-pub-86570</url></story><parent_chain><item><author>redisman</author><text>To me the likeliest scenario is still:&lt;p&gt;- Z and P after further destruction of Ukraine agree to ceding Crimea and some Eastern Ukraine and promise not to host nukes just to stop further carnage. Russia throws in some funds to rebuild</text></item><item><author>paulryanrogers</author><text>I&amp;#x27;m not convinced this appeal to authority proves there are only two ways out. Beyond escalation or occupation plenty of scenarios look just as plausible. And there&amp;#x27;s a risk that fixating on only these two suggested outcomes may reinforce them, like a self fulfilling prophecy.</text></item></parent_chain><comment><author>xdennis</author><text>It would be insane to agree to any Russians promises given that they don&amp;#x27;t respect their current agreements. The only solution is for Russians to retreat from the occupied territories or have endless guerrilla war.</text></comment>