<story><title>California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]</title><url>https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/California-Roadmap-to-Modify-the-Stay-at-Home-Order.pdf</url></story><parent_chain><item><author>mchusma</author><text>A real plan would look like this &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;imgur.com&amp;#x2F;spemOeG&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;imgur.com&amp;#x2F;spemOeG&lt;/a&gt; specifying the levels of restrictions and the metrics we will use to track the metrics.  This allows people to understand what to expect the best possible. We already have huge uncertainty, we don&amp;#x27;t need to add uncertainty of government response on top of uncertainty of the virus. I think there is huge room to debate the numbers and what goes in what level, but this is what a real roadmap looks like.&lt;p&gt;This &amp;quot;roadmap&amp;quot; is quite scary as this is not a plan that would pass muster in in YC Boardroom.
(1) The one chart with data is horribly innacurate:
(a) It shows interventions causing worse than no interventions in the short term?
(b) Shows hospitalizations increasing despite the fact that they have not for some time.
(c) Shows &amp;quot;Surge Capacity&amp;quot; as a static value, which you would hope they are increasing if they really think this is the issue.&lt;p&gt;(2) It does not specify in any fashion what the different levels of coming back are. 
When can medical procedures resume?
When can non-essential work where social distancing is easy resume (e.g. Los Angeles apparently has banned gardeners, who don&amp;#x27;t need to get near a soul)?&lt;p&gt;(3) If he believes masks work (as I do and as indicated in this presentation), why are masks not required and businesses shut down? Shouldn&amp;#x27;t we do the less painful and restrictive measure first before we shut down businesses?&lt;p&gt;(4) Most importantly there is not an actual goal clearly articulated here. Is he going for suppression?  Is he going for mitigation?&lt;p&gt;I like many others are deeply upset by leadership from both parties, at all levels of government.</text></item></parent_chain><comment><author>charlesju</author><text>The reason why your solution is not good is because it pigeon holes the government into expectations. The government doesn&amp;#x27;t have a crystal ball as to how this all plays out, they need to have the flexibility to change how they want to respond to each situation without having to defend an ultimatum.&lt;p&gt;For example, even in your own example here are several situations you didn&amp;#x27;t account:&lt;p&gt;-- The availability of tests for the public at large&lt;p&gt;-- Whether we&amp;#x27;re doing temperature checks everywhere&lt;p&gt;-- Whether we&amp;#x27;re requiring people to download a contact tracing app&lt;p&gt;-- How much capacity we have in the hospital system even though cases are going down&lt;p&gt;-- If we can find a drug that helps shorten the time people spend in a hospital&lt;p&gt;-- If we find new information like masks don&amp;#x27;t help or they greatly help&lt;p&gt;-- We run out of swabs but cases are low&lt;p&gt;There are a lot of factors that has to go into how the government changes the rules and while it might make it easier for the public to be at ease when the rules are hard, it also makes it a lot harder to adjust the rules.&lt;p&gt;I think being upset at the government is your right, but I also think you should channel your energy into something more productive and thank that at least in California we acted a lot faster than other areas of the country.&lt;p&gt;I think Governor Cuomo said something very interesting the other day, to paraphrase, when he was asked whether he should&amp;#x27;ve started stay at home earlier and if that would&amp;#x27;ve saved lives. Of course it would have, but the interviewer is not taking into account compliance and public sentiment. Likewise, for you, I think you&amp;#x27;re viewing this problem from a very individualistic point of view to get strict rules on what happens when, but you&amp;#x27;re not accounting for the edge cases where the government needs a backdoor to change the rules with new information and to play it close to public sentiment.</text></comment>
<story><title>California’s Roadmap to Modify the Stay-at-Home Order [pdf]</title><url>https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/California-Roadmap-to-Modify-the-Stay-at-Home-Order.pdf</url></story><parent_chain><item><author>mchusma</author><text>A real plan would look like this &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;imgur.com&amp;#x2F;spemOeG&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;imgur.com&amp;#x2F;spemOeG&lt;/a&gt; specifying the levels of restrictions and the metrics we will use to track the metrics.  This allows people to understand what to expect the best possible. We already have huge uncertainty, we don&amp;#x27;t need to add uncertainty of government response on top of uncertainty of the virus. I think there is huge room to debate the numbers and what goes in what level, but this is what a real roadmap looks like.&lt;p&gt;This &amp;quot;roadmap&amp;quot; is quite scary as this is not a plan that would pass muster in in YC Boardroom.
(1) The one chart with data is horribly innacurate:
(a) It shows interventions causing worse than no interventions in the short term?
(b) Shows hospitalizations increasing despite the fact that they have not for some time.
(c) Shows &amp;quot;Surge Capacity&amp;quot; as a static value, which you would hope they are increasing if they really think this is the issue.&lt;p&gt;(2) It does not specify in any fashion what the different levels of coming back are. 
When can medical procedures resume?
When can non-essential work where social distancing is easy resume (e.g. Los Angeles apparently has banned gardeners, who don&amp;#x27;t need to get near a soul)?&lt;p&gt;(3) If he believes masks work (as I do and as indicated in this presentation), why are masks not required and businesses shut down? Shouldn&amp;#x27;t we do the less painful and restrictive measure first before we shut down businesses?&lt;p&gt;(4) Most importantly there is not an actual goal clearly articulated here. Is he going for suppression?  Is he going for mitigation?&lt;p&gt;I like many others are deeply upset by leadership from both parties, at all levels of government.</text></item></parent_chain><comment><author>phkahler</author><text>&amp;gt;&amp;gt; I like many others are deeply upset by leadership from both parties, at all levels of government.&lt;p&gt;I&amp;#x27;m sitting at home in Michigan where the governor has closed almost all businesses. Politicians bicker over weather governors or the president have the authority to reopen things. And yet there is no plan as far as I can see. No goals, no criteria to trigger next steps, nothing. Meanwhile the press just snipes at people.</text></comment>