<story><title>Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”</title><url>https://techcrunch.com/2017/01/04/toyotas-research-institute-head-says-full-autonomous-driving-is-not-even-close/</url></story><parent_chain><item><author>Eridrus</author><text>If we had autonomous planes it wouldn&amp;#x27;t significantly reduce cost or increase usage. But there is a lot of investment in autonomous drones.&lt;p&gt;Planes also have a very high safety bar to begin with, which cars do not.&lt;p&gt;Same thing about trains, there&amp;#x27;s very little value in doing so, and resistance in the form of unions in some locations. Some trains are fully automated though, here&amp;#x27;s an article with some more info: &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;motherboard.vice.com&amp;#x2F;en_us&amp;#x2F;article&amp;#x2F;wnj75z&amp;#x2F;why-dont-we-have-driverless-trains-yet&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;motherboard.vice.com&amp;#x2F;en_us&amp;#x2F;article&amp;#x2F;wnj75z&amp;#x2F;why-dont-w...&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;Frankly having some dude from Toyota, who don&amp;#x27;t seem to be very invested in this space, tell me he doesn&amp;#x27;t think it&amp;#x27;s going to work isn&amp;#x27;t very convincing. Chris Urmson saying it might take up to 30 years is far more convincing: &lt;a href=&quot;http:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;spectrum.ieee.org&amp;#x2F;cars-that-think&amp;#x2F;transportation&amp;#x2F;self-driving&amp;#x2F;google-selfdriving-car-will-be-ready-soon-for-some-in-decades-for-others&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;http:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;spectrum.ieee.org&amp;#x2F;cars-that-think&amp;#x2F;transportation&amp;#x2F;self...&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;But that&amp;#x27;s 30 years for the entire planet, not until it works at all.  WayMo is already letting people ride their cars in Phoenix - presumably one of the places with good weather and easy roads, so I think metro-level deployment in the next 4 years seems about right.&lt;p&gt;[EDIT]: And on the topic of trains. The MTA in NYC can&amp;#x27;t even seem to handle basic technical projects, like upgrading signaling infrastructure, or just extending a rail line a few miles without spending billions of dollars, so there&amp;#x27;s probably a decent chance that some of these are not automated due to sheer incompetence.</text></item><item><author>limeblack</author><text>One thing I would love someone to explain is how can people assume cars are going to be automated soon when both planes and trains haven&amp;#x27;t been automated for various reasons.  They are different issues I have gathered but essentially shouldn&amp;#x27;t trains be dead simple but to this day at least the trains(not metras though) often have someone to stop the train in case of emergencies.  Planes are more complex but have lower crash ratings and less obstacles but can&amp;#x27;t stop and still have 2 plus pilots.</text></item></parent_chain><comment><author>ScottBurson</author><text>Gill Pratt is not &amp;quot;some dude&amp;quot; -- he&amp;#x27;s a robotics researcher with a PhD from MIT, and was a DARPA program manager [0].&lt;p&gt;[0] &lt;a href=&quot;http:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;corporatenews.pressroom.toyota.com&amp;#x2F;article_display.cfm?article_id=5423&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;http:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;corporatenews.pressroom.toyota.com&amp;#x2F;article_display.cf...&lt;/a&gt;</text></comment>
<story><title>Toyota Research Institute head says full autonomous driving is “not even close”</title><url>https://techcrunch.com/2017/01/04/toyotas-research-institute-head-says-full-autonomous-driving-is-not-even-close/</url></story><parent_chain><item><author>Eridrus</author><text>If we had autonomous planes it wouldn&amp;#x27;t significantly reduce cost or increase usage. But there is a lot of investment in autonomous drones.&lt;p&gt;Planes also have a very high safety bar to begin with, which cars do not.&lt;p&gt;Same thing about trains, there&amp;#x27;s very little value in doing so, and resistance in the form of unions in some locations. Some trains are fully automated though, here&amp;#x27;s an article with some more info: &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;motherboard.vice.com&amp;#x2F;en_us&amp;#x2F;article&amp;#x2F;wnj75z&amp;#x2F;why-dont-we-have-driverless-trains-yet&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;motherboard.vice.com&amp;#x2F;en_us&amp;#x2F;article&amp;#x2F;wnj75z&amp;#x2F;why-dont-w...&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;Frankly having some dude from Toyota, who don&amp;#x27;t seem to be very invested in this space, tell me he doesn&amp;#x27;t think it&amp;#x27;s going to work isn&amp;#x27;t very convincing. Chris Urmson saying it might take up to 30 years is far more convincing: &lt;a href=&quot;http:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;spectrum.ieee.org&amp;#x2F;cars-that-think&amp;#x2F;transportation&amp;#x2F;self-driving&amp;#x2F;google-selfdriving-car-will-be-ready-soon-for-some-in-decades-for-others&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;http:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;spectrum.ieee.org&amp;#x2F;cars-that-think&amp;#x2F;transportation&amp;#x2F;self...&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;But that&amp;#x27;s 30 years for the entire planet, not until it works at all.  WayMo is already letting people ride their cars in Phoenix - presumably one of the places with good weather and easy roads, so I think metro-level deployment in the next 4 years seems about right.&lt;p&gt;[EDIT]: And on the topic of trains. The MTA in NYC can&amp;#x27;t even seem to handle basic technical projects, like upgrading signaling infrastructure, or just extending a rail line a few miles without spending billions of dollars, so there&amp;#x27;s probably a decent chance that some of these are not automated due to sheer incompetence.</text></item><item><author>limeblack</author><text>One thing I would love someone to explain is how can people assume cars are going to be automated soon when both planes and trains haven&amp;#x27;t been automated for various reasons.  They are different issues I have gathered but essentially shouldn&amp;#x27;t trains be dead simple but to this day at least the trains(not metras though) often have someone to stop the train in case of emergencies.  Planes are more complex but have lower crash ratings and less obstacles but can&amp;#x27;t stop and still have 2 plus pilots.</text></item></parent_chain><comment><author>skywhopper</author><text>It&amp;#x27;s important to point out that the WayMo project in Phoenix is only barely getting started, only serves limited areas, at limited times, and presumably in limited weather conditions; and most importantly that there&amp;#x27;s still a human driver in the vehicle at all times. A full-scale metro-wide service would need to operate at all hours, in most any weather, and without a human driver. That&amp;#x27;s not happening within four years.</text></comment>