<story><title>TSMC is making the best of a bad geopolitical situation</title><url>https://www.economist.com/business/2023/01/19/tsmc-is-making-the-best-of-a-bad-geopolitical-situation</url></story><parent_chain><item><author>ksec</author><text>&amp;gt;&lt;i&gt;“Complete nonsense,” retorts Pierre Ferragu of New Street Research, a financial firm. tsmc has almost simultaneously launched a new fab in Taiwan, with four times the wafer capacity—and more advanced technology—than the two proposed Arizona foundries. Its bet on America is more of a long-term insurance policy than an immediate game-changer. It enables tsmc to start the tough job of recruiting a workforce and amassing suppliers in America, providing a baseline for expansion “if the Chinese are crazy enough to bomb Taiwan”. For the foreseeable future, though, most r&amp;amp;d is likely to remain in Taiwan. So will at least four-fifths of tmsc’s capacity.&lt;/i&gt;&lt;p&gt;It is unfortunate the truth and decent analysts dont get enough press coverage because they dont fit the narrative of current trend.&lt;p&gt;-  The only way to understand the Press is to remember that they pander to their readers&amp;#x27; prejudices.</text></item></parent_chain><comment><author>roenxi</author><text>It is in China&amp;#x27;s interests that Taiwan not be the centre of global chip manufacturing. And the US&amp;#x27;s interest. Europe&amp;#x27;s too. The situation is delicate, but I suspect in time Taiwan will become less strategically important. Too many powerful players would benefit from that industry going somewhere else. An economic competitive advantage  is not enough to make the US take strategic risks, or to hold China off.&lt;p&gt;It makes sense that there would be literal conspiracies a work in this situation. If I were in Taiwan, I would assume that the US plant represents some sort of threat to the geopolitical status quo. Regardless of what some analyst thinks.</text></comment>
<story><title>TSMC is making the best of a bad geopolitical situation</title><url>https://www.economist.com/business/2023/01/19/tsmc-is-making-the-best-of-a-bad-geopolitical-situation</url></story><parent_chain><item><author>ksec</author><text>&amp;gt;&lt;i&gt;“Complete nonsense,” retorts Pierre Ferragu of New Street Research, a financial firm. tsmc has almost simultaneously launched a new fab in Taiwan, with four times the wafer capacity—and more advanced technology—than the two proposed Arizona foundries. Its bet on America is more of a long-term insurance policy than an immediate game-changer. It enables tsmc to start the tough job of recruiting a workforce and amassing suppliers in America, providing a baseline for expansion “if the Chinese are crazy enough to bomb Taiwan”. For the foreseeable future, though, most r&amp;amp;d is likely to remain in Taiwan. So will at least four-fifths of tmsc’s capacity.&lt;/i&gt;&lt;p&gt;It is unfortunate the truth and decent analysts dont get enough press coverage because they dont fit the narrative of current trend.&lt;p&gt;-  The only way to understand the Press is to remember that they pander to their readers&amp;#x27; prejudices.</text></item></parent_chain><comment><author>komali2</author><text>I suspect the PRC won&amp;#x27;t outright bomb much of Taiwan but instead go straight for the presidential palace in Taipei and try to force an ROC capitulation early.&lt;p&gt;I think they&amp;#x27;re counting on the ruling class &amp;#x2F; landowners &amp;#x2F; capitalists to pressure the government to capitulate at fear of property destruction, which I also expect to be in line with reality. Doing capitalism in a country like taiwan is better than in the PRC, but doing it in the PRC is better than not being able to do it at all because all your assets were obliterated.&lt;p&gt;What I think none of these people are counting on is that there are rabidly anti CPC people here in Taiwan, leftist or otherwise, and some of these people engage in post-military service training and drilling. I suspect that if the above comes to pass and the CPC is successful in forcing an ROC surrender, the factories are burning one way or the other, due to &amp;quot;self-sabotage&amp;quot; by workers or guerillas.&lt;p&gt;Then the PLA gets to have fun for a decade chasing guerillas around the choking thick jungle and mountains that make up the majority of the landmass in Taiwan. Many of these will be indigenous who have lived in the mountains for generations and per capita by demographic make up more of the (non conscripted) military than any other demographic.&lt;p&gt;I don&amp;#x27;t think any of this will come to pass though because I, like most people in Taiwan (including the usa consulate staff), believe the possibility of invasion is slim.</text></comment>