<story><title>Experts say Tesla has repeated car industry mistakes from the 1980s</title><url>https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/04/experts-say-tesla-has-repeated-car-industry-mistakes-from-the-1980s/</url></story><parent_chain><item><author>wpietri</author><text>It&amp;#x27;s also shocking to anybody who had studied Toyota&amp;#x27;s history. Toyota spent decades honing their processes, but are notoriously automation-averse [1], as automation locks in a (hoped-for) short-term productivity gain but prevents the human-driven continuous improvement that has made them highly productive. [2]&lt;p&gt;In some ways, I think the long software-is-eating-the-world boom has been bad for us as an industry. We have been so successful with &amp;quot;throw tech at it&amp;quot; solutions that we don&amp;#x27;t know when that isn&amp;#x27;t a good idea. E.g., the Silicon-Valley-reinvents-grilled-cheese flop The Melt [3], or the $120m clown show that was Juicero [4].&lt;p&gt;American car companies spent decades trying and failing to learn Toyota&amp;#x27;s approach. They even had enthusiastic help from Toyota, who even went so far as to take GM&amp;#x27;s worst plant and redo it as a joint venture. (Interestingly, it&amp;#x27;s the same plant that Tesla now uses. [5]) For those unfamiliar with the story, I strongly recommend This American Life&amp;#x27;s episode on it. [6] But my takeaway was that executive arrogance kept GM from learning that there was a much better way to make cars. That sounds more and more familiar these days.&lt;p&gt;[1] &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.fastcompany.com&amp;#x2F;40461624&amp;#x2F;how-toyota-is-putting-humans-first-in-an-era-of-increasing-automation&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.fastcompany.com&amp;#x2F;40461624&amp;#x2F;how-toyota-is-putting-h...&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;[2] &lt;a href=&quot;http:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.nbcnews.com&amp;#x2F;id&amp;#x2F;18960044&amp;#x2F;ns&amp;#x2F;business-autos&amp;#x2F;t&amp;#x2F;study-toyota-most-productive-automaker&amp;#x2F;&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;http:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.nbcnews.com&amp;#x2F;id&amp;#x2F;18960044&amp;#x2F;ns&amp;#x2F;business-autos&amp;#x2F;t&amp;#x2F;study...&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;[3] &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.wired.com&amp;#x2F;story&amp;#x2F;how-the-trendiest-grilled-cheese-venture-got-burnt&amp;#x2F;&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.wired.com&amp;#x2F;story&amp;#x2F;how-the-trendiest-grilled-cheese...&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;[4] &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;blog.bolt.io&amp;#x2F;heres-why-juicero-s-press-is-so-expensive-6add74594e50&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;blog.bolt.io&amp;#x2F;heres-why-juicero-s-press-is-so-expensi...&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;[5] &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&amp;#x2F;wiki&amp;#x2F;NUMMI&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&amp;#x2F;wiki&amp;#x2F;NUMMI&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;[6] &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.thisamericanlife.org&amp;#x2F;561&amp;#x2F;nummi-2015&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.thisamericanlife.org&amp;#x2F;561&amp;#x2F;nummi-2015&lt;/a&gt;</text></item><item><author>blattimwind</author><text>Anyone who has had to do with the manufacturing side of car makers (German ones anyway) knows how highly optimized from end-to-end their processes are. It seems doubtful that anyone could leapfrog this amount of accumulated process knowledge and optimization simply by way of being new.&lt;p&gt;Automation is not a black-and-white thing, either, as it is often portrayed. Sure, some things are fully automated (e.g. assembling the car body), but many things are partially automated. For example, there is a tool which is essentially 5&amp;#x2F;6&amp;#x2F;7 torque wrenches coupled to a lifting arm. This tool allows a line worker to mount a tire with little physical exertion in seconds. You see this sort of thing all the time at car assembly lines; offloading mechanical power to the machine, while having a human line up and steer things. (This also avoids a whole bunch of safety concerns you normally have when operating autonomous equipment in the same physical space occupied by humans)&lt;p&gt;Another example: The body of virtually any car is self-supporting (there is no frame), so getting it right is rather critical. To achieve both the high strength and low weight of a modern car body the steel is deformed very closely to the maximum deformation it can withstand. This needs very good matching of the process to the steel. So, the manufacturer of the steel coil tests each coil individually for its exact properties. For mass production lines only coils meeting very tight tolerances are used. For low volume lines the process is adjusted individually for each coil based on the manufacturers testing and some in-house testing.</text></item></parent_chain><comment><author>jernfrost</author><text>Yeah I also read about how American car factories used super sophisticated and expensive computer system back in the 80-90s only to realize that the Japanese accomplished the same with just people and some cleverly placed sticker symbols.&lt;p&gt;I think underlying a lot of this is a disdain in America for blue collar workers. People at the top thing of them as dumb monkeys and that there is nothing to what they do. Hence the falsely assume a computer or robot can do the job just as well.&lt;p&gt;The Japanese showed that by utilizing what humans are actually got at you get better productivity. Using humans the same way as robots is a very bad way of utilizing the flexibility inherent in a human.</text></comment>
<story><title>Experts say Tesla has repeated car industry mistakes from the 1980s</title><url>https://arstechnica.com/cars/2018/04/experts-say-tesla-has-repeated-car-industry-mistakes-from-the-1980s/</url></story><parent_chain><item><author>wpietri</author><text>It&amp;#x27;s also shocking to anybody who had studied Toyota&amp;#x27;s history. Toyota spent decades honing their processes, but are notoriously automation-averse [1], as automation locks in a (hoped-for) short-term productivity gain but prevents the human-driven continuous improvement that has made them highly productive. [2]&lt;p&gt;In some ways, I think the long software-is-eating-the-world boom has been bad for us as an industry. We have been so successful with &amp;quot;throw tech at it&amp;quot; solutions that we don&amp;#x27;t know when that isn&amp;#x27;t a good idea. E.g., the Silicon-Valley-reinvents-grilled-cheese flop The Melt [3], or the $120m clown show that was Juicero [4].&lt;p&gt;American car companies spent decades trying and failing to learn Toyota&amp;#x27;s approach. They even had enthusiastic help from Toyota, who even went so far as to take GM&amp;#x27;s worst plant and redo it as a joint venture. (Interestingly, it&amp;#x27;s the same plant that Tesla now uses. [5]) For those unfamiliar with the story, I strongly recommend This American Life&amp;#x27;s episode on it. [6] But my takeaway was that executive arrogance kept GM from learning that there was a much better way to make cars. That sounds more and more familiar these days.&lt;p&gt;[1] &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.fastcompany.com&amp;#x2F;40461624&amp;#x2F;how-toyota-is-putting-humans-first-in-an-era-of-increasing-automation&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.fastcompany.com&amp;#x2F;40461624&amp;#x2F;how-toyota-is-putting-h...&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;[2] &lt;a href=&quot;http:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.nbcnews.com&amp;#x2F;id&amp;#x2F;18960044&amp;#x2F;ns&amp;#x2F;business-autos&amp;#x2F;t&amp;#x2F;study-toyota-most-productive-automaker&amp;#x2F;&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;http:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.nbcnews.com&amp;#x2F;id&amp;#x2F;18960044&amp;#x2F;ns&amp;#x2F;business-autos&amp;#x2F;t&amp;#x2F;study...&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;[3] &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.wired.com&amp;#x2F;story&amp;#x2F;how-the-trendiest-grilled-cheese-venture-got-burnt&amp;#x2F;&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.wired.com&amp;#x2F;story&amp;#x2F;how-the-trendiest-grilled-cheese...&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;[4] &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;blog.bolt.io&amp;#x2F;heres-why-juicero-s-press-is-so-expensive-6add74594e50&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;blog.bolt.io&amp;#x2F;heres-why-juicero-s-press-is-so-expensi...&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;[5] &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&amp;#x2F;wiki&amp;#x2F;NUMMI&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&amp;#x2F;wiki&amp;#x2F;NUMMI&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;[6] &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.thisamericanlife.org&amp;#x2F;561&amp;#x2F;nummi-2015&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.thisamericanlife.org&amp;#x2F;561&amp;#x2F;nummi-2015&lt;/a&gt;</text></item><item><author>blattimwind</author><text>Anyone who has had to do with the manufacturing side of car makers (German ones anyway) knows how highly optimized from end-to-end their processes are. It seems doubtful that anyone could leapfrog this amount of accumulated process knowledge and optimization simply by way of being new.&lt;p&gt;Automation is not a black-and-white thing, either, as it is often portrayed. Sure, some things are fully automated (e.g. assembling the car body), but many things are partially automated. For example, there is a tool which is essentially 5&amp;#x2F;6&amp;#x2F;7 torque wrenches coupled to a lifting arm. This tool allows a line worker to mount a tire with little physical exertion in seconds. You see this sort of thing all the time at car assembly lines; offloading mechanical power to the machine, while having a human line up and steer things. (This also avoids a whole bunch of safety concerns you normally have when operating autonomous equipment in the same physical space occupied by humans)&lt;p&gt;Another example: The body of virtually any car is self-supporting (there is no frame), so getting it right is rather critical. To achieve both the high strength and low weight of a modern car body the steel is deformed very closely to the maximum deformation it can withstand. This needs very good matching of the process to the steel. So, the manufacturer of the steel coil tests each coil individually for its exact properties. For mass production lines only coils meeting very tight tolerances are used. For low volume lines the process is adjusted individually for each coil based on the manufacturers testing and some in-house testing.</text></item></parent_chain><comment><author>pfarnsworth</author><text>I have a friend who worked at Juicero, so unlike 99% of the people here on HN, I have a lot of info on it, and didn&amp;#x27;t just read the headlines. In fact, I had more than a few glasses of Juicero drinks whenever I visited her place (generally hated it, but I&amp;#x27;m not their target demo).&lt;p&gt;Overall, I never liked the idea, and I told her that. I said it was way too expensive and they would have to decrease the price by 80% for it to be viable. But for the people who got it, mainly celebrities and millionaires, they loved it. I think I remember that Beyonce or Katy Perry or Britney got it for all of her dancers, etc.&lt;p&gt;The entire &amp;quot;green juice&amp;quot; industry is large, and the founder made his first millions by selling chains of these types of juices. The target was to make a glass of green juice less expensive than what you would find at a high-end gym or juice shop. The plan was to build it out with the people who were willing to pay for them, like celebrities and influencers, and then make them mass-market. The biggest expense was getting the food chain up and running, trying to get enough local farmers, etc, and getting the freshest ingredients possible. The internet connection, while ridiculous on the surface, was necessary to ensure that the ingredients were still fresh, because they literally had no preservatives. They wanted to avoid having people drinking a glass of mold or worse especially if they weren&amp;#x27;t mindful of expiration dates. This could also help if they sold these presses to juice shops (a later business strategy) and the person selling the juice might have old expired stock.&lt;p&gt;But once it was set up, the plan was to scale out and lower prices through higher volume. Unfortunately, the bad press hit just as they were doing a round of funding and went bankrupt soon after because funding dried up.&lt;p&gt;Do I think it would have been a hit? Probably not. But the idea wasn&amp;#x27;t absolutely stupid. It&amp;#x27;s about the same as any other Silicon Valley idea I&amp;#x27;ve heard. Cater to a very select market of influencers first, and then scale out and create a new market based on green juices. The company absolutely believed that green juices would help the world, because it&amp;#x27;s a lot healthier, etc, so if you buy into that mindset that they could create a new industry, then it made sense.&lt;p&gt;Did they make pure business strategy mistake? Yes, just like other companies. Did the founder have too much of a Steve-Jobs-Deity complex by trying to over-design the press? Yes. But it&amp;#x27;s not nearly as bad as people believe from the headlines. The goal was to create a new market, like how Uber created a market by lowering prices for ridesharing. If you could lower the price of green juice to the price of a Starbucks latte from $15, then they really felt like this company would be a tremendous success.</text></comment>