<story><title>Internal Apple document: FY&apos;14 Planning Offsite</title><url>http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/216526160?access_key=key-1uv8ibrvnzr4dnx0fu5c&amp;allow_share=true&amp;escape=false&amp;view_mode=scroll</url></story><parent_chain><item><author>kenjackson</author><text>Apple faces a severe &lt;i&gt;potential&lt;/i&gt; financial crisis in coming years -- one that dwarfs Microsoft&amp;#x27;s.  They rely so heavily on the premium subsidy for their revenue that if the subsidy is merely brought down to normal levels they will see a huge drop in revenue -- and this assumes that they keep selling the same number of phones.&lt;p&gt;Now that there are viable alternatives in Android, and to a lesser extent Windows Phones, with much lower subsidies, I think you&amp;#x27;ll see the carriers push these other devices.&lt;p&gt;And if we move to a model where consumers pay for the full price of the phone (which is what much of the world does today), then you&amp;#x27;ll actually see iPhone sales fall.  Sub $200 low-margin phones are the future.  Apple can still do well with a premium phone -- especially if the camera is really good, but I think it&amp;#x27;s a tougher niche than the high-end PC market.</text></item></parent_chain><comment><author>anon1385</author><text>&amp;gt;Why being insanely profitable is bad for Apple&lt;p&gt;Microsoft fans have been making this argument for 15 years or more.  They said Apple should copy Dell and sell cheap enterprise desktops with low margins because that was where the money was. Then they said Apple should copy Asus and HP and sell cheap netbooks with low margins because that was the future. Then people said Apple should be making a really cheap ebook reader to compete with the Kindle.&lt;p&gt;People are constantly advising Apple that they should get into low margin markets and compete on price with companies that are barely breaking even. This advice seems to mostly be based on what they want the market to look like, more than how it actually is.</text></comment>
<story><title>Internal Apple document: FY&apos;14 Planning Offsite</title><url>http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/216526160?access_key=key-1uv8ibrvnzr4dnx0fu5c&amp;allow_share=true&amp;escape=false&amp;view_mode=scroll</url></story><parent_chain><item><author>kenjackson</author><text>Apple faces a severe &lt;i&gt;potential&lt;/i&gt; financial crisis in coming years -- one that dwarfs Microsoft&amp;#x27;s.  They rely so heavily on the premium subsidy for their revenue that if the subsidy is merely brought down to normal levels they will see a huge drop in revenue -- and this assumes that they keep selling the same number of phones.&lt;p&gt;Now that there are viable alternatives in Android, and to a lesser extent Windows Phones, with much lower subsidies, I think you&amp;#x27;ll see the carriers push these other devices.&lt;p&gt;And if we move to a model where consumers pay for the full price of the phone (which is what much of the world does today), then you&amp;#x27;ll actually see iPhone sales fall.  Sub $200 low-margin phones are the future.  Apple can still do well with a premium phone -- especially if the camera is really good, but I think it&amp;#x27;s a tougher niche than the high-end PC market.</text></item></parent_chain><comment><author>bdcravens</author><text>&lt;i&gt;Sub $200 low-margin phones are the future.&lt;/i&gt;&lt;p&gt;Wouldn&amp;#x27;t this be as problematic for Samsung (or any other vendor with high end offerings, but Samsung is the big dog) as Apple? While Samsung has some sub-$200 phones, doesn&amp;#x27;t the massive profit from the latest and greatest make that possible?</text></comment>