<story><title>There’s No Fire Alarm for Artificial General Intelligence (2017)</title><url>https://intelligence.org/2017/10/13/fire-alarm/</url></story><parent_chain><item><author>jbay808</author><text>There are a lot of people in this thread who seem to be very confident and skeptical of the author&amp;#x27;s position. Maybe this would be a good opportunity to try the exercise he challenges in the article?&lt;p&gt;Please post your nomination for what’s the least impressive accomplishment that you are very confident cannot be done in the next two years.&lt;p&gt;We can check back in 2022 and see how we did!</text></item></parent_chain><comment><author>mehrdadn</author><text>Okay, sure. :-) Take the set of people [1] who:&lt;p&gt;- Have had an email account for at least 5 years,&lt;p&gt;- Have checked their spam folder at least once every month over the course of the past two years, and&lt;p&gt;- Have marked a set of emails as spam on at least 1 day every three months over the course of the past two years.&lt;p&gt;I&amp;#x27;m very confident that, within the next 2 years, we will not have an accurate enough classifier that would cause &amp;gt; 80% of these people to simultaneously (a) check their spam folders less than one day each year, and (b) mark emails as spam on less than 1 day every year.&lt;p&gt;Oh, and to help prevent cheating:&lt;p&gt;- Let&amp;#x27;s say the classifier must not have been trained with any emails in the world that are sent more recently than 1 month prior to the beginning of its trial.&lt;p&gt;I&amp;#x27;m also &lt;i&gt;very&lt;/i&gt; tempted to say we don&amp;#x27;t need to worry about AGI before we can achieve the above for 30% of these people, but I&amp;#x27;m less confident in this one.&lt;p&gt;[1] I suppose, as a practical matter, even if we had such a classifier, this would be untestable without access to everyones&amp;#x27; email accounts. So, for the sake of argument, let&amp;#x27;s say our population under study itself is a simple random sample of 100M accounts from the set of providers who service &amp;gt; 50M accounts each and who are willing to run such a test at the time of the trial.</text></comment>
<story><title>There’s No Fire Alarm for Artificial General Intelligence (2017)</title><url>https://intelligence.org/2017/10/13/fire-alarm/</url></story><parent_chain><item><author>jbay808</author><text>There are a lot of people in this thread who seem to be very confident and skeptical of the author&amp;#x27;s position. Maybe this would be a good opportunity to try the exercise he challenges in the article?&lt;p&gt;Please post your nomination for what’s the least impressive accomplishment that you are very confident cannot be done in the next two years.&lt;p&gt;We can check back in 2022 and see how we did!</text></item></parent_chain><comment><author>Hnrobert42</author><text>Successfully respond to my basic questions for help at my bank website.</text></comment>