<story><title>The polls messed up</title><url>https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/11/04/dont-kid-yourself-the-polls-messed-up-and-that-would-be-the-case-even-wed-forecasted-biden-losing-florida-and-only-barely-winning-the-electoral-college/</url></story><parent_chain><item><author>vmception</author><text>I&amp;#x27;ve been standing on a paddleboard in calm waters, surrounded by people to my left and right that are convincing me of a wave coming on their side and don&amp;#x27;t know the people on the other side of me believe the same thing.&lt;p&gt;It&amp;#x27;s not surprising that technologists from the same schools and cities all failed to understand this again.&lt;p&gt;The filter bubble affects us all, including you, including me, including the people you think are completely brainwashed. I just happen to VPN with new browser sessions a lot and get to see it.&lt;p&gt;I also don&amp;#x27;t block people with different ideologies lol so there&amp;#x27;s that.</text></item></parent_chain><comment><author>Crye</author><text>This, I wonder, is the issue. As far as I understand, when polling occurs you subsample a population and then extrapolate it based on the existing demographics of the polling area.&lt;p&gt;Infamously in 2016, the polls did not take into consideration or normalize for education level. This resulted in a oversampling for for Hillary supporters. So as we continue to see polarization due to personalized media, it may turn out that typical demographic markers are no longer as effective in normalizing these sample polls.</text></comment>
<story><title>The polls messed up</title><url>https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/11/04/dont-kid-yourself-the-polls-messed-up-and-that-would-be-the-case-even-wed-forecasted-biden-losing-florida-and-only-barely-winning-the-electoral-college/</url></story><parent_chain><item><author>vmception</author><text>I&amp;#x27;ve been standing on a paddleboard in calm waters, surrounded by people to my left and right that are convincing me of a wave coming on their side and don&amp;#x27;t know the people on the other side of me believe the same thing.&lt;p&gt;It&amp;#x27;s not surprising that technologists from the same schools and cities all failed to understand this again.&lt;p&gt;The filter bubble affects us all, including you, including me, including the people you think are completely brainwashed. I just happen to VPN with new browser sessions a lot and get to see it.&lt;p&gt;I also don&amp;#x27;t block people with different ideologies lol so there&amp;#x27;s that.</text></item></parent_chain><comment><author>ehsankia</author><text>To be fair, a &amp;quot;wave&amp;quot; did come, from both sides, is roughly equal size. It is true that Democrats are much more riled up and likely to vote. It is also true that Republicans are riled up and more likely to vote. Both those things can coexist. The only issue is that it&amp;#x27;s more the sound wave where two inverted waves cancel each other.</text></comment>