<story><title>Facebook Prediction Market Launches in US and Canada</title><url>https://npe.fb.com/2020/10/01/forecast-update-making-forecast-available-to-everyone/</url></story><parent_chain><item><author>tantalor</author><text>This doesn&amp;#x27;t use real money? Just worthless &amp;quot;points&amp;quot;?&lt;p&gt;If it doesn&amp;#x27;t use real money the predictions will be garbage.&lt;p&gt;&amp;quot;Why do you have to use real money?&amp;quot;&lt;p&gt;&lt;i&gt;Prediction markets work best when players have some stake, however small, in the outcome. With play money, many players take risks they wouldn’t otherwise take or don’t attend to their holdings as carefully. Such markets may therefore have less research value than real money ones. Besides, we think real money is fun too.&lt;/i&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.predictit.org&amp;#x2F;support&amp;#x2F;faq&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.predictit.org&amp;#x2F;support&amp;#x2F;faq&lt;/a&gt;</text></item></parent_chain><comment><author>darawk</author><text>Points will work fine. The reason money works is partly the SKITG effect, but not entirely. In an iterated prediction market game, eventually reputation will accrue to those that make accurate forecasts. Much in the same way that money accrues to those skilled in business, or at forecasting in traditional financial markets. This iterated equilibrium should result in high quality predictions after a relatively short period of calibration.</text></comment>
<story><title>Facebook Prediction Market Launches in US and Canada</title><url>https://npe.fb.com/2020/10/01/forecast-update-making-forecast-available-to-everyone/</url></story><parent_chain><item><author>tantalor</author><text>This doesn&amp;#x27;t use real money? Just worthless &amp;quot;points&amp;quot;?&lt;p&gt;If it doesn&amp;#x27;t use real money the predictions will be garbage.&lt;p&gt;&amp;quot;Why do you have to use real money?&amp;quot;&lt;p&gt;&lt;i&gt;Prediction markets work best when players have some stake, however small, in the outcome. With play money, many players take risks they wouldn’t otherwise take or don’t attend to their holdings as carefully. Such markets may therefore have less research value than real money ones. Besides, we think real money is fun too.&lt;/i&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.predictit.org&amp;#x2F;support&amp;#x2F;faq&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.predictit.org&amp;#x2F;support&amp;#x2F;faq&lt;/a&gt;</text></item></parent_chain><comment><author>chillacy</author><text>It seems to use reputation instead, which might do decently with those who take it seriously. For example, the Good Judgement Project forecasting competition uses points and scores to incentivize: &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.gjopen.com&amp;#x2F;faq&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.gjopen.com&amp;#x2F;faq&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&amp;#x2F;wiki&amp;#x2F;The_Good_Judgment_Project&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&amp;#x2F;wiki&amp;#x2F;The_Good_Judgment_Project&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;&amp;gt; Predictions are scored using Brier scores.[6] The top forecasters in GJP are &amp;quot;reportedly 30% better than intelligence officers with access to actual classified information</text></comment>