<story><title>Number of unemployed persons per job opening</title><url>https://www.bls.gov/charts/job-openings-and-labor-turnover/unemp-per-job-opening.htm</url></story><parent_chain><item><author>alexb_</author><text>Posting this as its own top level comment for better visibility:&lt;p&gt;Look at how (relatively) low it was in September 2007. One can assume in February it was even lower - and February is when Greenspan said a recession was obviously coming. The subprime mortgage crisis started in April 2007. But the job market didn&amp;#x27;t really get fucked until 2008. There&amp;#x27;s a delay with these types of things - I personally predict that a year from now, a lot of companies (especially ones in the tech sector fueled by immense amounts of cheap debt and the assumption ad revenue always goes up) will collapse. That&amp;#x27;s when you see the spike in unemployment, not now.</text></item></parent_chain><comment><author>whimsicalism</author><text>Because the ad-fueled tech sector companies are driving employment? And which of these companies are fueled by immense amounts of debt (traditionally a mainstay of capital intensive industries, which tech is not).&lt;p&gt;I don&amp;#x27;t know, your comment makes little sense to me. I encourage others to read what Greenspan actually said if they are under the impression that he predicted the 2008 recession.</text></comment>
<story><title>Number of unemployed persons per job opening</title><url>https://www.bls.gov/charts/job-openings-and-labor-turnover/unemp-per-job-opening.htm</url></story><parent_chain><item><author>alexb_</author><text>Posting this as its own top level comment for better visibility:&lt;p&gt;Look at how (relatively) low it was in September 2007. One can assume in February it was even lower - and February is when Greenspan said a recession was obviously coming. The subprime mortgage crisis started in April 2007. But the job market didn&amp;#x27;t really get fucked until 2008. There&amp;#x27;s a delay with these types of things - I personally predict that a year from now, a lot of companies (especially ones in the tech sector fueled by immense amounts of cheap debt and the assumption ad revenue always goes up) will collapse. That&amp;#x27;s when you see the spike in unemployment, not now.</text></item></parent_chain><comment><author>bryanlarsen</author><text>People may read causality into your comment that you didn&amp;#x27;t imply.   That the number of unemployed persons per job opening is so low is a very strong &amp;quot;boom&amp;quot; signal.   Busts inevitably follow booms, but booms don&amp;#x27;t cause busts.  Something else is the trigger.   Subprime mortgage crisis in 2007, the rate tightening caused by inflation in 2022, etc.&lt;p&gt;I argue that the US fed rate is going to have to get a lot higher than 4% to cause this boom to bust in the US.  That&amp;#x27;s an exercise in fed tea leaf reading.   The last fed guidance was a lot more ambiguous than previous tightenings this year.</text></comment>