<story><title>US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)</title><url>https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/gross-domestic-product-second-quarter-2022-advance-estimate</url></story><parent_chain><item><author>melling</author><text>Doesn’t a Fed typically lower rates during a recession?&lt;p&gt;At least at some point, in order to bring a country out of the recession.</text></item><item><author>yuan43</author><text>&amp;gt; Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022 (table 1), according to the &amp;quot;advance&amp;quot; estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 1.6 percent.&lt;p&gt;That makes two back-to-back quarters of real GDP contraction. To some, this is a recession, but it&amp;#x27;s the NBER that puts the stamp on it. AFAIK, NBER has never failed to put the recession stamp on back-to-back drops in GDP.&lt;p&gt;It&amp;#x27;s worth noting that yield curve inversion predicted recession four months ago:&lt;p&gt;&amp;gt; The 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields inverted for the first time since 2019 on Thursday, sending a possible warning signal that a recession could be on the horizon.&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.cnbc.com&amp;#x2F;2022&amp;#x2F;03&amp;#x2F;31&amp;#x2F;2-year-treasury-yield-tops-10-year-rate-a-yield-curve-inversion-that-could-signal-a-recession.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.cnbc.com&amp;#x2F;2022&amp;#x2F;03&amp;#x2F;31&amp;#x2F;2-year-treasury-yield-tops-1...&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;It&amp;#x27;s also worth noting that 2y-10y yields have been deeply inverted (~20 basis points) for most of July and are in that state today.&lt;p&gt;Still one more thing to note: the earliest warning signal of them all appears to be an inversion of the eurodollar futures curve:&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.reuters.com&amp;#x2F;business&amp;#x2F;finance&amp;#x2F;eurodollar-futures-market-betting-hawkish-fed-could-ease-rates-slightly-2024-2022-02-18&amp;#x2F;&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.reuters.com&amp;#x2F;business&amp;#x2F;finance&amp;#x2F;eurodollar-futures-...&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;It started inverting last year. The inversion steepened. It is now in a very deep inversion in the long end that is marching steadily to lower maturities.</text></item></parent_chain><comment><author>lumost</author><text>There have been predictions that the Fed would exhaust its capability to regulate the economy through monetary stimulus for years with the end result being inflation and recession.  Anecdotally, over the course of my life the size of fiscal and monetary stimulus has only increased.  During the 90s we would stimulate with a few points of interest reduction, then in the 2000s we had 08 leading into permanent QE through the 10&amp;#x27;s.  The 2020&amp;#x27;s have seen stimulus activities far in excess of &amp;#x27;08.</text></comment>
<story><title>US Gross Domestic Product, Second Quarter 2022 (Advance Estimate)</title><url>https://www.bea.gov/news/2022/gross-domestic-product-second-quarter-2022-advance-estimate</url></story><parent_chain><item><author>melling</author><text>Doesn’t a Fed typically lower rates during a recession?&lt;p&gt;At least at some point, in order to bring a country out of the recession.</text></item><item><author>yuan43</author><text>&amp;gt; Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2022 (table 1), according to the &amp;quot;advance&amp;quot; estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP decreased 1.6 percent.&lt;p&gt;That makes two back-to-back quarters of real GDP contraction. To some, this is a recession, but it&amp;#x27;s the NBER that puts the stamp on it. AFAIK, NBER has never failed to put the recession stamp on back-to-back drops in GDP.&lt;p&gt;It&amp;#x27;s worth noting that yield curve inversion predicted recession four months ago:&lt;p&gt;&amp;gt; The 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields inverted for the first time since 2019 on Thursday, sending a possible warning signal that a recession could be on the horizon.&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.cnbc.com&amp;#x2F;2022&amp;#x2F;03&amp;#x2F;31&amp;#x2F;2-year-treasury-yield-tops-10-year-rate-a-yield-curve-inversion-that-could-signal-a-recession.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.cnbc.com&amp;#x2F;2022&amp;#x2F;03&amp;#x2F;31&amp;#x2F;2-year-treasury-yield-tops-1...&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;It&amp;#x27;s also worth noting that 2y-10y yields have been deeply inverted (~20 basis points) for most of July and are in that state today.&lt;p&gt;Still one more thing to note: the earliest warning signal of them all appears to be an inversion of the eurodollar futures curve:&lt;p&gt;&lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.reuters.com&amp;#x2F;business&amp;#x2F;finance&amp;#x2F;eurodollar-futures-market-betting-hawkish-fed-could-ease-rates-slightly-2024-2022-02-18&amp;#x2F;&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.reuters.com&amp;#x2F;business&amp;#x2F;finance&amp;#x2F;eurodollar-futures-...&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;It started inverting last year. The inversion steepened. It is now in a very deep inversion in the long end that is marching steadily to lower maturities.</text></item></parent_chain><comment><author>tootie</author><text>The Fed lowers rates when lowering rates could plausibly help. The Fed has a dual mandate to control inflation and maximize employment. Employment remains incredibly strong while inflation is obviously too high which is the clearest possible signal to tighten. The Fed won&amp;#x27;t&amp;#x2F;can&amp;#x27;t react to changes in the stock market, supply chain or foreign policy. It&amp;#x27;s not just &amp;quot;loosen during recession, tighten during expansion&amp;quot;.</text></comment>