<story><title>Asteroid ZTm0038 with a &gt;3% impact probability</title><url>https://newton.spacedys.com/neodys2/NEOScan/risk_page/ZTm0038/index_summary_ZTm0038.html</url></story><parent_chain><item><author>Leary</author><text>Found this tweet with an impact probability map that is around northern US&amp;#x2F;Asia&amp;#x2F;Europe :
&lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;twitter.com&amp;#x2F;JoelSercel&amp;#x2F;status&amp;#x2F;1691549821629526219&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow noreferrer&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;twitter.com&amp;#x2F;JoelSercel&amp;#x2F;status&amp;#x2F;1691549821629526219&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;&amp;quot;If it is real this IS the worst asteroid threat ever discovered and the impact location and times are ugly (will post pics shortly).  Note that the impact is in the next couple days!  
However, an Italian colleague of one of our astronomers suspects there is an error in the reported observations and there has been no chatter about this object and no followup.  This probably means that it is not real.
&amp;quot; - Joel C. Sercel, PhD&lt;p&gt;I&amp;#x27;m guessing the impact death area will be around 3600 km2 (I have no idea, please correct), so ultimately the chance of it falling on me is 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 100,000 provided the asteroid hits. Which means 1 in 1,000,000 to 1 in 10,000,000 in total? (assuming 1% hit probability)</text></item><item><author>killthebuddha</author><text>I&amp;#x27;m having a weirdly difficult time finding some basic ELI5 answers.&lt;p&gt;&lt;pre&gt;&lt;code&gt;  - What is the probability that this asteroid will hit us?
  - What is the time interval where that probability applies?
  - Do we have a probability distribution for where it might hit? I don&amp;#x27;t know anything about anything, but I assume we know what *general direction* it&amp;#x27;s coming from?
  - Do we have a probability distribution for the potential blast radius?
&lt;/code&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;
In general, I am very confused by this news because &amp;quot;400m diameter asteroid 3%  chance of impact&amp;quot; is something I would expect &lt;i&gt;literally everybody&lt;/i&gt; to be talking about all the time. It&amp;#x27;s also something where if I learned that everything north of Kansas has a 5% chance of getting hit but everything south of Houston has a 1% chance, I&amp;#x27;d seriously consider taking an impromptu vacation.</text></item></parent_chain><comment><author>pdabbadabba</author><text>What should we make of the fact that this tweet has since been deleted?</text></comment>
<story><title>Asteroid ZTm0038 with a &gt;3% impact probability</title><url>https://newton.spacedys.com/neodys2/NEOScan/risk_page/ZTm0038/index_summary_ZTm0038.html</url></story><parent_chain><item><author>Leary</author><text>Found this tweet with an impact probability map that is around northern US&amp;#x2F;Asia&amp;#x2F;Europe :
&lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;twitter.com&amp;#x2F;JoelSercel&amp;#x2F;status&amp;#x2F;1691549821629526219&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow noreferrer&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;twitter.com&amp;#x2F;JoelSercel&amp;#x2F;status&amp;#x2F;1691549821629526219&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;&amp;quot;If it is real this IS the worst asteroid threat ever discovered and the impact location and times are ugly (will post pics shortly).  Note that the impact is in the next couple days!  
However, an Italian colleague of one of our astronomers suspects there is an error in the reported observations and there has been no chatter about this object and no followup.  This probably means that it is not real.
&amp;quot; - Joel C. Sercel, PhD&lt;p&gt;I&amp;#x27;m guessing the impact death area will be around 3600 km2 (I have no idea, please correct), so ultimately the chance of it falling on me is 1 in 10,000 to 1 in 100,000 provided the asteroid hits. Which means 1 in 1,000,000 to 1 in 10,000,000 in total? (assuming 1% hit probability)</text></item><item><author>killthebuddha</author><text>I&amp;#x27;m having a weirdly difficult time finding some basic ELI5 answers.&lt;p&gt;&lt;pre&gt;&lt;code&gt;  - What is the probability that this asteroid will hit us?
  - What is the time interval where that probability applies?
  - Do we have a probability distribution for where it might hit? I don&amp;#x27;t know anything about anything, but I assume we know what *general direction* it&amp;#x27;s coming from?
  - Do we have a probability distribution for the potential blast radius?
&lt;/code&gt;&lt;/pre&gt;
In general, I am very confused by this news because &amp;quot;400m diameter asteroid 3%  chance of impact&amp;quot; is something I would expect &lt;i&gt;literally everybody&lt;/i&gt; to be talking about all the time. It&amp;#x27;s also something where if I learned that everything north of Kansas has a 5% chance of getting hit but everything south of Houston has a 1% chance, I&amp;#x27;d seriously consider taking an impromptu vacation.</text></item></parent_chain><comment><author>noduerme</author><text>If I&amp;#x27;m looking at the time chart correctly, that basically corresponds to &amp;quot;daylight hours&amp;quot;, when you&amp;#x27;re facing the sun, tomorrow within the northern hemisphere...</text></comment>