<story><title>Housing can’t both be a good investment and be affordable</title><url>http://cityobservatory.org/housing-cant-be-affordable_and_be-a-good-investment/</url></story><parent_chain><item><author>CompelTechnic</author><text>The article is dead wrong about the economics of whether buying a house is a good investment.  So much so as to be intellectually dishonest.&lt;p&gt;1. The alternative to buying a home is renting.  If the net cost of home ownership is lower than renting, you do not need to make a net profit on the sale of your home for it to be a good decision.  The right way to make this decision is to look at all net cash flows, discounted to their present value, such as is done by the New York times rent vs. buy calculator.&lt;p&gt;2. The article ignores the fact that mortgages, which most people use, amplify the gains of inflation.&lt;p&gt;3.  The inflation hedging properties of a home make for a good way to protect your future self and retired self from cost of living changes in a way that alternative investments cannot.&lt;p&gt;Many people outside of VHCOL San Francisco have found housing that is both affordable and a good investment.</text></item><item><author>jrnvs</author><text>Great, so you made $50k because your $200k house is now worth $250k - a 25% increase. 
You now have a family and bigger income and are looking at a bigger house priced $500k. You are really glad that you “made” $50k on your old house.&lt;p&gt;But wait, if the new house is in the same neighbourhood, it’s price increase was probably &lt;i&gt;also&lt;/i&gt; close to 25%. If prices had stayed the same, it would be worth $400k today.&lt;p&gt;So you just gained $50k on your old house but are paying $100k more on the new one.&lt;p&gt;This is only beneficial if you move from a large house in a popular area to a smaller house in a less popular area.&lt;p&gt;If you have kids, they might inherit the wealth gained from your housing “investment” - after splitting with their siblings and after taxes of course. Sounds good, until you realise that they will have to spend it all - and put in extra -  on housing because of the price increases.&lt;p&gt;In a world where housing prices stay the same, or become slightly cheaper year by year, everyone is better of. The prices of common utilities such as food and clothing have gone down spectacularly in the last decades while quality has gone up. No one would rather live in a world where these had instead become more expensive.
 It’s time we start thinking about housing in the same way.</text></item></parent_chain><comment><author>candu</author><text>Here&amp;#x27;s the core argument of the article, rephrased slightly: housing cannot both outpace inflation and remain affordable indefinitely.&lt;p&gt;This is not incompatible with &lt;i&gt;some&lt;/i&gt; people being able to find affordable housing that is a good investment.  All it means is that in the long term - especially when real wages remain relatively constant [1] - these two policy aims are mathematically at odds.&lt;p&gt;[1] &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&amp;#x2F;wiki&amp;#x2F;Real_wages&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;en.wikipedia.org&amp;#x2F;wiki&amp;#x2F;Real_wages&lt;/a&gt;</text></comment>
<story><title>Housing can’t both be a good investment and be affordable</title><url>http://cityobservatory.org/housing-cant-be-affordable_and_be-a-good-investment/</url></story><parent_chain><item><author>CompelTechnic</author><text>The article is dead wrong about the economics of whether buying a house is a good investment.  So much so as to be intellectually dishonest.&lt;p&gt;1. The alternative to buying a home is renting.  If the net cost of home ownership is lower than renting, you do not need to make a net profit on the sale of your home for it to be a good decision.  The right way to make this decision is to look at all net cash flows, discounted to their present value, such as is done by the New York times rent vs. buy calculator.&lt;p&gt;2. The article ignores the fact that mortgages, which most people use, amplify the gains of inflation.&lt;p&gt;3.  The inflation hedging properties of a home make for a good way to protect your future self and retired self from cost of living changes in a way that alternative investments cannot.&lt;p&gt;Many people outside of VHCOL San Francisco have found housing that is both affordable and a good investment.</text></item><item><author>jrnvs</author><text>Great, so you made $50k because your $200k house is now worth $250k - a 25% increase. 
You now have a family and bigger income and are looking at a bigger house priced $500k. You are really glad that you “made” $50k on your old house.&lt;p&gt;But wait, if the new house is in the same neighbourhood, it’s price increase was probably &lt;i&gt;also&lt;/i&gt; close to 25%. If prices had stayed the same, it would be worth $400k today.&lt;p&gt;So you just gained $50k on your old house but are paying $100k more on the new one.&lt;p&gt;This is only beneficial if you move from a large house in a popular area to a smaller house in a less popular area.&lt;p&gt;If you have kids, they might inherit the wealth gained from your housing “investment” - after splitting with their siblings and after taxes of course. Sounds good, until you realise that they will have to spend it all - and put in extra -  on housing because of the price increases.&lt;p&gt;In a world where housing prices stay the same, or become slightly cheaper year by year, everyone is better of. The prices of common utilities such as food and clothing have gone down spectacularly in the last decades while quality has gone up. No one would rather live in a world where these had instead become more expensive.
 It’s time we start thinking about housing in the same way.</text></item></parent_chain><comment><author>hoaw</author><text>&amp;gt; The article is dead wrong about the economics of whether buying a house is a good investment. So much so as to be intellectually dishonest.&lt;p&gt;What part of the article is that? Because that certainly wasn&amp;#x27;t my take away. The article is about whether housing can be affordable and a good financial investment, giving large returns, at the same time. Housing as an &amp;quot;investment&amp;quot; in your life, family or security isn&amp;#x27;t what is meant.</text></comment>