<story><title>How the weak can win – A primer on protracted war</title><url>https://acoup.blog/2022/03/03/collections-how-the-weak-can-win-a-primer-on-protracted-war/</url></story><parent_chain><item><author>thematrixturtle</author><text>Chechnya is the counterpoint here: Russia crushed the local populace completely mercilessly and &lt;i&gt;successfully&lt;/i&gt; installed a puppet in the form of the equally merciless Ramzan Kadyrov.&lt;p&gt;This would be likely the worst possible outcome for Ukraine, but it&amp;#x27;s sadly feasible.  The main difference is that world didn&amp;#x27;t really care about a bunch of Muslims in an unpronounceable city (Grozny) in what was legally Russian territory, while for Ukraine they do seem willing to stand up a bit more.</text></item><item><author>bduerst</author><text>I&amp;#x27;d wished they would have gone into some of the differences between a protracted was with the U.S. and Russia looks like.&lt;p&gt;It&amp;#x27;s seems like it is easier to point out how Afghanistan and Vietnam were able to draw out a long-term protracted war and out-will a democracy that (to a degree) follows the changing will of the people.  It&amp;#x27;s especially easier given the lack of threat to the mainland that can be manufactured.&lt;p&gt;But what about against a neighboring oligarchy like Russia?  How do you out-will the singular authoritarian leader and&amp;#x2F;or his small group of oligarchs?</text></item></parent_chain><comment><author>int_19h</author><text>The why it was possible in Chechnya is that the rebels have started fighting between themselves; specifically, the (older) Chechen traditionalist &amp;#x2F; nationalist faction was unhappy with the growing power of the (newer) Salafi fundamentalist faction.&lt;p&gt;Thus, Kadyrov - except back then it was Ahmad Kadyrov; Ramzan is his son and successor. As the Chief Mufti of Chechnya, he was one of the most powerful figures in the traditionalist camp, and one with the most to lose from Salafism gaining ground (traditional Chechen Islam is Sufi).&lt;p&gt;Ahmad Kadyrov was all in with the rebels during the first Chechen war, officially declaring it a jihad in his capacity as a mufti. Ramzan boasted of &amp;quot;killing his first Russian at 16&amp;quot; at the time. But by 1999, the Kadyrov clan decided that Salafis are more dangerous than Russians, and switched allegiance.&lt;p&gt;That is why Russia could install that puppet government relatively easily - because they had considerable local support: not just the Kadyrov clan, but numerous others aligned with it. Ukraine also has many potential collaborators, but mostly in the East, and they are already mostly in the separatist militias. I expect that Russia will recruit from those for its occupation administration.</text></comment>
<story><title>How the weak can win – A primer on protracted war</title><url>https://acoup.blog/2022/03/03/collections-how-the-weak-can-win-a-primer-on-protracted-war/</url></story><parent_chain><item><author>thematrixturtle</author><text>Chechnya is the counterpoint here: Russia crushed the local populace completely mercilessly and &lt;i&gt;successfully&lt;/i&gt; installed a puppet in the form of the equally merciless Ramzan Kadyrov.&lt;p&gt;This would be likely the worst possible outcome for Ukraine, but it&amp;#x27;s sadly feasible.  The main difference is that world didn&amp;#x27;t really care about a bunch of Muslims in an unpronounceable city (Grozny) in what was legally Russian territory, while for Ukraine they do seem willing to stand up a bit more.</text></item><item><author>bduerst</author><text>I&amp;#x27;d wished they would have gone into some of the differences between a protracted was with the U.S. and Russia looks like.&lt;p&gt;It&amp;#x27;s seems like it is easier to point out how Afghanistan and Vietnam were able to draw out a long-term protracted war and out-will a democracy that (to a degree) follows the changing will of the people.  It&amp;#x27;s especially easier given the lack of threat to the mainland that can be manufactured.&lt;p&gt;But what about against a neighboring oligarchy like Russia?  How do you out-will the singular authoritarian leader and&amp;#x2F;or his small group of oligarchs?</text></item></parent_chain><comment><author>AtlasBarfed</author><text>I doubt Chechnya has the opportunity to be outfitted with a drone air force and TOW&amp;#x2F;MANPADS for any Ukrainian that wants them. Chechnya involved muslims. Ukrainians are far more European, yes that makes a difference.&lt;p&gt;Chechnya didn&amp;#x27;t have direct NATO border nations and supply lines.&lt;p&gt;I don&amp;#x27;t believe this to be the normal massive asymmetric difference in firepower if NATO arms the Ukrainians enough. IF they are given sufficient drones, I believe Ukraine could actually have a firepower and battlefield advantage.&lt;p&gt;Now, I don&amp;#x27;t know for sure NATO is going to commit to such supply. I think they&amp;#x27;ll be a bit more reserved, but the more weaponry Russia use, the more NATO will supply Ukraine. NATO may decided to supply just enough to bog down Russia but not hand Ukraine a rapid victory.&lt;p&gt;I 100% believe NATO could equip Ukraine with enough weapons for certain victory. It now comes down to whether NATO does that.&lt;p&gt;Missiles: &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.forbes.com&amp;#x2F;sites&amp;#x2F;davidhambling&amp;#x2F;2022&amp;#x2F;03&amp;#x2F;03&amp;#x2F;ukraine-receives-fresh-supplies-of-bayraktar-drones-and-anti-tank-weapons&amp;#x2F;?sh=5b5807a2359a&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.forbes.com&amp;#x2F;sites&amp;#x2F;davidhambling&amp;#x2F;2022&amp;#x2F;03&amp;#x2F;03&amp;#x2F;ukrain...&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;Turkey is supplying new drones. I bet there are more on the way. Stingers and Polish MANPADS are being supplied.&lt;p&gt;These are the publicly announced numbers. Those numbers tell me NATO will supply ample weaponry.&lt;p&gt;Ukraine is a nation of 40,000,000 people. And they appear spoiling for a fight. How many of those would train to fight? 2 million? 5 million? 10 million? If Ukraine gets 1 million volunteers and full arms support from the West, Russia is doomed.&lt;p&gt;I&amp;#x27;ll be interested to see if female fighting units start getting news like in Kurdistan. If that happens, Russia is in deep trouble.</text></comment>