<story><title>Predictive policing software terrible at predicting crimes</title><url>https://themarkup.org/prediction-bias/2023/10/02/predictive-policing-software-terrible-at-predicting-crimes</url></story><parent_chain><item><author>shadowtree</author><text>This is such an interesting topic, where the conclusions are so politically charged that no ones wants to risk their careers.&lt;p&gt;See this article in the NYT:
&lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.nytimes.com&amp;#x2F;2023&amp;#x2F;04&amp;#x2F;15&amp;#x2F;nyregion&amp;#x2F;shoplifting-arrests-nyc.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow noreferrer&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.nytimes.com&amp;#x2F;2023&amp;#x2F;04&amp;#x2F;15&amp;#x2F;nyregion&amp;#x2F;shoplifting-arre...&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;&amp;quot;Nearly a third of all shoplifting arrests in New York City last year involved just 327 people, the police said. Collectively, they were arrested and rearrested more than 6,000 times, Police Commissioner Keechant Sewell said.&amp;quot;&lt;p&gt;Can you predict crimes? Of course you can, the math is clear. The solution to &lt;i&gt;reduce&lt;/i&gt; crime is also logical and clear, but politically unfeasible: extended incarceration.&lt;p&gt;All the handwringing about various side topics, like race, gender, class are just distractions. See El Salvador&amp;#x27;s murder rate drop this year too. WSJ, with handwringing: &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.wsj.com&amp;#x2F;articles&amp;#x2F;the-country-with-the-highest-murder-rate-now-has-the-highest-incarceration-rate-b5401da7&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow noreferrer&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.wsj.com&amp;#x2F;articles&amp;#x2F;the-country-with-the-highest-mu...&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;Criminals commit crimes, a lot. Once you have identified a criminal, you can safely predict more crimes. No AI needed, a simple spreadsheet will suffice.&lt;p&gt;And here, another article for a balanced world view - Ireland:
&lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.sundayworld.com&amp;#x2F;crime&amp;#x2F;irish-crime&amp;#x2F;decrease-in-leinster-burglaries-attributed-by-gardai-to-deaths-of-three-criminals-in-n7-crash&amp;#x2F;40858796.html#:~:text=A%20significant%20decrease%20in%20burglaries,a%20number%20of%20arrest%20operations&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow noreferrer&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.sundayworld.com&amp;#x2F;crime&amp;#x2F;irish-crime&amp;#x2F;decrease-in-le...&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;p&gt;&amp;quot;A significant decrease in burglaries in most Leinster counties is being attributed by senior gardaí to the deaths of three prolific criminals as well as a number of arrest operations.&amp;quot;</text></item></parent_chain><comment><author>curiousllama</author><text>&amp;gt; The solution to reduce crime is also logical and clear, but politically unfeasible: extended incarceration.&lt;p&gt;The death penalty for misdemeanors would also reduce crime. The externalities make it not worth it.&lt;p&gt;Notably, Chicago tried exactly what you&amp;#x27;re proposing (rank order list of likely criminals with proactive surveillance and intervention). It didn&amp;#x27;t really work. [1]&lt;p&gt;[1] &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.theverge.com&amp;#x2F;2016&amp;#x2F;8&amp;#x2F;19&amp;#x2F;12552384&amp;#x2F;chicago-heat-list-tool-failed-rand-test&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow noreferrer&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.theverge.com&amp;#x2F;2016&amp;#x2F;8&amp;#x2F;19&amp;#x2F;12552384&amp;#x2F;chicago-heat-lis...&lt;/a&gt;</text></comment>
<story><title>Predictive policing software terrible at predicting crimes</title><url>https://themarkup.org/prediction-bias/2023/10/02/predictive-policing-software-terrible-at-predicting-crimes</url></story><parent_chain><item><author>shadowtree</author><text>This is such an interesting topic, where the conclusions are so politically charged that no ones wants to risk their careers.&lt;p&gt;See this article in the NYT:
&lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.nytimes.com&amp;#x2F;2023&amp;#x2F;04&amp;#x2F;15&amp;#x2F;nyregion&amp;#x2F;shoplifting-arrests-nyc.html&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow noreferrer&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.nytimes.com&amp;#x2F;2023&amp;#x2F;04&amp;#x2F;15&amp;#x2F;nyregion&amp;#x2F;shoplifting-arre...&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;&amp;quot;Nearly a third of all shoplifting arrests in New York City last year involved just 327 people, the police said. Collectively, they were arrested and rearrested more than 6,000 times, Police Commissioner Keechant Sewell said.&amp;quot;&lt;p&gt;Can you predict crimes? Of course you can, the math is clear. The solution to &lt;i&gt;reduce&lt;/i&gt; crime is also logical and clear, but politically unfeasible: extended incarceration.&lt;p&gt;All the handwringing about various side topics, like race, gender, class are just distractions. See El Salvador&amp;#x27;s murder rate drop this year too. WSJ, with handwringing: &lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.wsj.com&amp;#x2F;articles&amp;#x2F;the-country-with-the-highest-murder-rate-now-has-the-highest-incarceration-rate-b5401da7&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow noreferrer&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.wsj.com&amp;#x2F;articles&amp;#x2F;the-country-with-the-highest-mu...&lt;/a&gt;&lt;p&gt;Criminals commit crimes, a lot. Once you have identified a criminal, you can safely predict more crimes. No AI needed, a simple spreadsheet will suffice.&lt;p&gt;And here, another article for a balanced world view - Ireland:
&lt;a href=&quot;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.sundayworld.com&amp;#x2F;crime&amp;#x2F;irish-crime&amp;#x2F;decrease-in-leinster-burglaries-attributed-by-gardai-to-deaths-of-three-criminals-in-n7-crash&amp;#x2F;40858796.html#:~:text=A%20significant%20decrease%20in%20burglaries,a%20number%20of%20arrest%20operations&quot; rel=&quot;nofollow noreferrer&quot;&gt;https:&amp;#x2F;&amp;#x2F;www.sundayworld.com&amp;#x2F;crime&amp;#x2F;irish-crime&amp;#x2F;decrease-in-le...&lt;/a&gt;.&lt;p&gt;&amp;quot;A significant decrease in burglaries in most Leinster counties is being attributed by senior gardaí to the deaths of three prolific criminals as well as a number of arrest operations.&amp;quot;</text></item></parent_chain><comment><author>l3mure</author><text>&amp;gt; The solution to reduce crime is also logical and clear, but politically unfeasible: extended incarceration.&lt;p&gt;Some form of 3-strike law is on the books in a majority (28) of US states (including NY), so they clearly are not politically unfeasible, nor are they obviously effective.</text></comment>