<story><title>About That OpenAI &quot;Breakthrough&quot;</title><url>https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/about-that-openai-breakthrough</url></story><parent_chain><item><author>throw310822</author><text>I am surprised by how dismissive the whole post sounds. For example:&lt;p&gt;&amp;gt; OpenAI could in fact have a breakthrough that fundamentally changes the world&lt;p&gt;Well, it appears to me that OpenAI &lt;i&gt;already&lt;/i&gt; has such a breakthrough- it had it roughly 4 years ago with GPT2, and it&amp;#x27;s still scaling it.&lt;p&gt;Considering that &lt;i&gt;it&amp;#x27;s not yet a year since the introduction of the first ChatGPT&lt;/i&gt;, and given the pace at which it&amp;#x27;s evolving, I would say that the current product is already showing great promise to fundamentally change the world. I would not be surprised if just incremental changes were enough to fulfill that prediction. The impact at this point seems more limited by the ability of society to absorb and process the technology rather than intrinsic limits of the technology itself.</text></item></parent_chain><comment><author>gexla</author><text>One thing OpenAI has now that it didn&amp;#x27;t have 4 years ago is a lot more compute power at its disposal. Sam Altman has already said &amp;quot;I think we&amp;#x27;re at the end of the era where it&amp;#x27;s going to be these, like, giant, giant models.&amp;quot; If that&amp;#x27;s actually true, then the GPTX tech has largely hit a wall in which throwing more compute at it won&amp;#x27;t get the same increase in capability. Bill Gates predicted that GTP5 won&amp;#x27;t be much better than GPT4. So, any &amp;quot;breakthrough&amp;quot; really could be incremental rather than game changing.</text></comment>
<story><title>About That OpenAI &quot;Breakthrough&quot;</title><url>https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/about-that-openai-breakthrough</url></story><parent_chain><item><author>throw310822</author><text>I am surprised by how dismissive the whole post sounds. For example:&lt;p&gt;&amp;gt; OpenAI could in fact have a breakthrough that fundamentally changes the world&lt;p&gt;Well, it appears to me that OpenAI &lt;i&gt;already&lt;/i&gt; has such a breakthrough- it had it roughly 4 years ago with GPT2, and it&amp;#x27;s still scaling it.&lt;p&gt;Considering that &lt;i&gt;it&amp;#x27;s not yet a year since the introduction of the first ChatGPT&lt;/i&gt;, and given the pace at which it&amp;#x27;s evolving, I would say that the current product is already showing great promise to fundamentally change the world. I would not be surprised if just incremental changes were enough to fulfill that prediction. The impact at this point seems more limited by the ability of society to absorb and process the technology rather than intrinsic limits of the technology itself.</text></item></parent_chain><comment><author>naasking</author><text>The article is from Gary Marcus, a well known AI skeptic. Not surprising if he&amp;#x27;s being dismissive.</text></comment>