<story><title>The Next Leap in Self-Driving: Prediction</title><url>https://olivercameron.substack.com/p/the-next-leap-in-self-driving-prediction</url></story><parent_chain><item><author>irjustin</author><text>Predicting is absolutely key. If you&amp;#x27;ve been around the Waymo cars they horribly manage simple situations. They&amp;#x27;re VERY safe because they take no risk, but that won&amp;#x27;t work at scale. &amp;quot;What&amp;#x27;s that? Stop wait..., what&amp;#x27;s that? stop... wait wait wait&amp;quot;&lt;p&gt;They&amp;#x27;re very jerky at intersections where there&amp;#x27;s even a mild amount of uncertainty and really only go when it&amp;#x27;s very clear. It reminds me of lots of first time drivers reacting to new situations where safe is the best way forward. But if we had pure first time drivers, we&amp;#x27;d be a gridlock at even a mild amount of traffic that enters and leaves the roadway.&lt;p&gt;Looking forward to this next set of 5 years. Hopefully us drivers will get replaced in 10? maybe?</text></item></parent_chain><comment><author>jacquesm</author><text>I actually prefer the Waymo approach over the Tesla and Uber approach. When there are lives on the line you simply do not cross certain lines and in the longer term Waymo will be the only player left whose reputation is still in one piece. That more than anything will decide whether self driving vehicles gain long term acceptance. Anything else will lead to a &amp;#x27;self driving winter&amp;#x27;.</text></comment>
<story><title>The Next Leap in Self-Driving: Prediction</title><url>https://olivercameron.substack.com/p/the-next-leap-in-self-driving-prediction</url></story><parent_chain><item><author>irjustin</author><text>Predicting is absolutely key. If you&amp;#x27;ve been around the Waymo cars they horribly manage simple situations. They&amp;#x27;re VERY safe because they take no risk, but that won&amp;#x27;t work at scale. &amp;quot;What&amp;#x27;s that? Stop wait..., what&amp;#x27;s that? stop... wait wait wait&amp;quot;&lt;p&gt;They&amp;#x27;re very jerky at intersections where there&amp;#x27;s even a mild amount of uncertainty and really only go when it&amp;#x27;s very clear. It reminds me of lots of first time drivers reacting to new situations where safe is the best way forward. But if we had pure first time drivers, we&amp;#x27;d be a gridlock at even a mild amount of traffic that enters and leaves the roadway.&lt;p&gt;Looking forward to this next set of 5 years. Hopefully us drivers will get replaced in 10? maybe?</text></item></parent_chain><comment><author>scep12</author><text>It&amp;#x27;s too bad we can&amp;#x27;t rip the band-aid off and just go straight to full autonomy for every car using Waymo (or similar). The problem you identified becomes a non-issue if 1) it&amp;#x27;s the norm and 2) the passengers inside aren&amp;#x27;t paying enough attention to the road to care about the quirks. It&amp;#x27;s probable in my estimation that roads filled with only automated drivers become safer, more efficient, and more predictable, which acts as a flywheel for the prediction in the cars to get better.&lt;p&gt;Would be really interesting if Waymo could prove this out somehow.</text></comment>