also flagged the negative impact on prices of the surprise success of a revamp of Ivory Coast's cocoa marketing regime, which has introduced a single body for the selling the country's supplies - the Coffee and Cocoa Council - paying a fixed price to farmers in return.

Many investors had feared problems with the new system, given concerns over matters such over storage space and an apparent lack of scrutiny ovf bean quality, besides the risk of cocoa futures spiralling beyond the fixed payout price, incentivising farmers to renege on deliveries to the council.

In fact, the regime – aimed at protecting farmers from market volatility, and so encouraging investment – "appears to be working far more successfully than almost all imagined", Marex said.

"The farmers are supportive of the system,cocoa is flowing and quality seems to have improved."

Indeed, the reforms "may lead to both improved quality and increases in quantity in the medium term".

'Very cautious view'

Marex, which while covering many crops is particularly noted for its cocoa research, also urged investors against drawing a bullish view on prices from a forecast of world production falling 107,000 tonnes behind demand in 2012-13.

The forecast is higher than that from some other commentators, including a Barclays Capital estimate of a 98,000-tonne deficit.

However, it included a "very cautious view" of output from West Africa mid-crops "due to the unusual rainfall patterns in recent months".

Marex pegged the Ivory Coast mid-crop at 300,000 tonnes, the lowest for at least five seasons, and down from 361,000 tonnes in 2011-12, noting an extended period of