region and the
world. It would trigger another Mideast war, and possibly a
confrontation with Russia, with effects that are difficult to predict.
A war with Iran might bring about the collapse of the NPT, lead to a
new arms race, and plunge the world into nuclear chaos. Such a crisis
holds the potential to bring the world to the nuclear brink. This
article will review the background, and provide an analysis. I will
discuss the reactor at Bushehr first, then the other suspect sites.

The Reactor at Bushehr

The Bushehr nuclear plant has a long history. Launched in 1974, the
project was the showcase of the late Shah Muhammad Reza Pahlavi. The
original plan called for the construction of two 1200-1300 megawatt
reactors on the southern Iran coast, side by side. The contractor was
the Siemens company, a well-known Germanfirm. The project was 85%
finished at the time of the 1979 Iranian revolution, when work was
halted. During Iranís subsequent war with Iraq the unfinished
reactors were bombed repeatedly, and severely damaged. After the war
Iran attempted to persuade Siemens to finish the project, without
success, due to increased proliferation concerns and heavy U.S.
pressure on Germany.

U.S. support for the Shahís dictatorial regime undoubtedly set
the stage for the 1979 Islamic revolution, when radical students,
backed by the Ayatollah Khomeini, seized the U.S. embassy and held
American diplomats hostage for 444 days. The resulting break in
U.S.-Iran relations has never healed. During the 1981-1988 Iran-Iraq
war the U.S. supported Saddam Hussein, who was perceived as a bulwark
against revolutionary Shiíism, just as Hitler, many years before,
was mistakenly perceived by some in the West as a bulwark against
Soviet communism. Nevertheless,