the non-college evangelicals. Support for impeaching and removing him from office reaches 43% among the men and 46% among the women. And they closely divide over his job performance: 55% of the men, but only 45% of the women, give him positive grades. On both of those measures, they are far more likely than the blue-collar white evangelicals to express negative views about Trump.

Two other new surveys offer further insights into what these patterns might mean for 2020. One is the new Nationscape project , a weekly survey of 6,000 Americans conducted by the Democracy Fund's Voter Study Group and two political scientists at the University of California at Los Angeles. At my request, the project combined results of its surveys from mid-July to late October to exploreearly preferences among these groups in a potential 2020 race between Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden.

That analysis showed Trump maintaining generally solid support among evangelical Christians. (He did, however, show some signs of potential slippage among evangelical women with college degrees compared with his showing among them in the exit polls for the 2016 election.) At the other end of the white education and religious spectrum, the Nationscape results showed Biden posting an advantage of more than 30 percentage points among college-educated white women who are not evangelicals and a nearly double-digit lead among the equivalent men. Each of those results was roughly the same as Hillary Clinton's performance in 2016, according to exit polls.

Compared with the 2016 exit polls, the Nationscape results showed Biden posting