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Facing the New Russian Challenge

By

Nicholas Wheeler

As the upcoming U.S.-Russia summit draws near, President Bush and other Western leaders face the challenge of creating a different organizing principle for developing and implementing Russian policy. At an 18 March 2002 lecture at the Kennan Institute, Ambassador James Goodby, Senior Research Fellow, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and Nonresident Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution, stated that, "President Vladimir Putin's strategic decision to integrate Russia into the West presents a real challenge to Western leaders." According to Goodby, Putin's discussions with European leaders and organizations illustrate his willingness to shift Russian ideology from the "multi-polar" foreign policies of the Primakov government to a pro-Western orientation. Goodby noted that, following September 11, the Putin government continued to shift its policies towards theThe second model is a stable triad, or a situation in which the relationship between the U.S., EU, and Russia becomes more of a community of equals--not in absolute power terms, but in the weight accorded to the views and interests of the U.S., EU, and Russia. Goodby identified the third model as the Western Commonwealth, or a situation where Russia fitfully continues its democratic reforms, but declines to engage the West in cooperation or constructive dialogue. The fourth model examined the implications of EU dominance. In this condition, Russia declines to engage the West, and the United States turns its focus to Asia, leaving the European Union in charge of European-focused policy and security in the region. In the final model, the U.S. overreaches with its hegemony,