period that allows one extra year to achieve a milestone For example, in determining whether a player started for five seasons or more, he was allowed six years to achieve those five years as a starter. This meant cutting off the five-year starter analysis with the 2008 draft year so as to allow draftees from 2008 six seasons to achieve both five years in the league and five years as a starter.

I acknowledge that a full analysis cannot be done until after a player’s career is over. The methodology employed in this article, for instance, does not count the player who takes longer than the one-year grace period to achieve a milestone. Take Jordy Nelson of the Packers as an example. He was drafted in 2008 but didnot achieve starter status until the 2011 season, his fourth year. While he has only three years as a starter right now, it is highly likely that Nelson will ultimately achieve five-year starter status but he is not counted as a five-year starter yet.

The following table shows the probability of achieving each of the milestones for each of the draft choice ranges. For example, 91.3% of the players selected in the 1-13 draft positions have historically played five years or more and 71.3% of them were starters for at least five years.

This table also demonstrates that the biggest change in going from one draft choice range to another is in drafting players who subsequently earn post-season honors. For example, the probability of drafting a five-year starter declines modestly