MONTREAL — If Jean Chrétien were still prime minister, Canada would likely have gone to the polls as the country was coming together after the Parliament Hill shooting and on the heels of a fiscal update that promised a balanced federal budget and imminent tax cuts for families late last fall.

Never one to dither over election timing, Chrétien chose his campaign windows at the early end of the calendar — when he still had a lot of options and when his rivals tended to be least prepared. The former Liberal prime minister called two elections before his majority governments reached their fourth anniversary in office.

Nor was he one to let waves of national emotion go to partisan waste. The state funeral for Pierre Elliott Trudeau was barely overwhen Chrétien called the 2000 election.

Rookie Canadian Alliance leader Stockwell Day had been leader of the official Opposition for only a few months when the writ was dropped.

The close race that the polls predicted never materialized.

Chrétien, of course, did not have to bother with the niceties of a fixed-date election law. The adoption of that regimen — shortly after Stephen Harper came to power — was meant to prevent future prime ministers from manipulating the calendar to their political advantage.

How is that working out?

Less than 15 days into the year and a short month after the prime minister categorically told the CBC that he was not contemplating a spring election, speculation is once again rampant that Harper could jump the gun and send Canada to the polls before