a hard look at over the next few months. Eight years ago, Obama was making noise about targeting Arizona but ultimately took a pass due to McCain's home state edge. Four years later, the state was largely off limits to Democrats as Gov. Jan Brewer's 2010 decision to sign into law a very controversial immigration bill polarized the electorate along racial lines -- with whites almost exclusively voting Republican. The state's Hispanic population continues to grow, however, and Trump's candidacy would seem to be a major motivator to turn out Latinos.

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* Georgia (16): This is another state in which demographic shifts are moving things in Democrats' favor. In 2012, Georgia was the 12th closest state by percentage as Romney won it by eight points. It was the 8thclosest state in 2008. And, polling in a Trump-Clinton matchup suggests it might be truly competitive in 2016; Trump has a narrow single digit edge in two recent independent surveys. One caveat: There was much excitement among Democrats in 2014 about Michelle Nunn's Senate candidacy in the Peach State. She wound up losing by eight points to a wealthy businessman making his first run for elected office. Sound familiar?