in his favor, the numbers project Wilson only at #17 based on mediocre results in 2013 and 2014, with room to improve.

The other prediction that's highly subject to variance is for James Stewart. He's going to be a hot topic to start the 2016 Supercross season, and while I would love for him to make things exciting by challenging for the #1 spot again, the numbers don't like two things: 1) his 2013 and 2014 were good but not great, and 2) his age puts him on the down side of the aging curve (see graph below, where the best-fit trendline is not encouraging).



The typical Supercross rider peaks at age 25, and Stewart just turned 30. Granted, this is no "typical" rider we're talking about, but I wouldhome Grand Prix of the season free from pressure in front of his Spanish fans. The race will be especially enjoyable for Lorenzo as he was forced to miss the 2011 Valencia round as he recovered from injuries sustained in a warm up crash at Phillip Island.

Katsuyuki Nakasuga will make his second appearance at Valencia in the premier class this weekend, this time as a replacement for Lorenzo's team mate Ben Spies who continues to recover from injuries sustained in Malaysia last month. Nakasuga has already proved a worthy substitute rider on the M1, taking sixth at Valencia last year and ninth at this year's Motegi race as a wildcard rider. The Japanese rider also arrives in Valencia as a champion having recently secured the All Japan Superbike