war in eastern Ukraine, is keen to explore ways to balance his alliances. He also wants to boost his economy, which is exposed to the recession in Russia and shrank by 4 percent in the January-July period.

The European Union is also eager to improve relations, but officials want to stress that sanctions relief will not take Belarus out of Russia's orbit or bring democracy.

EU efforts launched in Prague in 2009 failed to engage Belarus and achieve press freedoms, electoral reform and the abolition of the death penalty. Lukashenko has joined Russian President Vladimir Putin's Eurasian Union rather than taking up the European Union's offer of a free-trade deal.

"Europe needs to be realistic about Lukashenko. He has released political prisoners, but he might find a few new ones," saidAndrew Wilson of the European Council on Foreign Relations, a think-tank that frequently informs EU policy.

Technical issues still need to be worked out, including whether an easing of sanctions would be coordinated with the United States, which has similar measures in place.

Some EU governments want a "snapback" mechanism, as in the West's nuclear deal with Iran, whereby any further rights abuses would trigger an immediate re-imposition of sanctions.

"We've been here before," said one senior EU diplomat. "We need to keep pushing Lukashenko to improve human rights, but we shouldn't expect too much. I'm not sure he's the last dictator in Europe – he's certainly not the biggest," the diplomat said in a veiled reference to Russia's president.

(Additional reporting by Alastair Macdonald; Editing by Mark Trevelyan)