Economic forecasts were roundly criticised for exaggerating the fallout from the EU referendum last year. As it turned out, the economy did outperform many forecasts in the period that immediately followed the referendum, but that has changed quite markedly this year as household incomes are squeezed by high inflation and economic growth has consequently slowed. Was the criticism fair?

Figure 1 shows the evolution of consensus GDP growth for 2017 from just before the referendum in June last year to the most recent reading in July this year. The figure clearly shows that GDP growth in the Euro Area and the UK have diverged – the outlook for Euro Area growth has been revised higher, whereas the outlook for the UK has turned lower. The same figure also showsdeal.

We had such a good time. The opera was wonderful, with sub titles for non German speakers (all of us!). It was funny and beautifully sung, partly in German, partly in English with a smattering of Spanish. The plot is too complicated to explain.

In the auditorium the acoustics seemed faultless to me although I’m no expert. It was a bit chilly because the structure. although covered, was open to the elements in places. The back of the stage opened onto the outside and on a couple of occasions a car was driven onto it.

The setting was spectacular, set in parkland in the Wormsley estate, a home of the Getty family. Modern sculptures adorned the lawns and the view from the reception deck was idyllic. We took wine and