Quarterly Commentary: The End is Nigh?

10 April 2017

During the first quarter of the 2017 calendar year the leading global markets continued in much the same vein as the final quarter (and calendar year) when 2016 drew to a close. The UK’s benchmark FTSE 100 Index rose 2.5% to 7,322.92 during the first three months of the year, supported in no small part by the continuing relative weakness of Sterling as well as perennially low base interest rates. Towards the end of the quarter, defensive equities came to the fore once again, with 'heavyweight' stocks such as British American Tobacco, Unilever and Reckitt Benckiser all approaching 3-month (and all time) relative highs. The shares of global consumer companies in general were greatly coveted and supported with significant demand afterperhaps signalling the market’s concern over a number of factors including the ongoing debate around Brexit, the upcoming French Presidential Election, general geopolitical/terrorist issues and also the somewhat turbulent start to Donald Trump’s administration in the US.

Following on from the above and staying across the pond in the US, President Trump failed in his high profile bid to repeal the Affordable Care Act (ACA or 'Obamacare'). Defeat over his flagship manifesto pledge has raised the question of whether many of his other manifesto pledges will suffer a similar fate. Nevertheless, the President appears unperturbed and is expected to re-energise his efforts to push through his corporate tax reform agenda.

Despite the boon of OPEC’s production cut in late 2016, oil suffered a weak start to the year with Brent