George W. Bush's elections). What puts New Hampshire into the toss-up category in 2016 is its large proportion of independents. In 2012, that group made up more than 4-in-10 general election voters, and went narrowly for Obama. Recent polls suggest that Trump has a big lead with independents, which could flip the state.

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* North Carolina (15): After a narrow Obama win in 2008, Romney took the Tar Heel State back -- again, narrowly -- in 2012. The fact that nearly 30 percent of the state's population is either black or Hispanic makes it an immediate Clinton target given how dismal Trump's numbers are among both groups. Add that to the fact that the Research Triangle (Raleigh, Chapel Hill and Durham) is populated by lots and lots of affluent,out in droves. Unlike Michigan and Pennsylvania, a Republican has won Ohio at the presidential level this century.

* Virginia (13): When Obama won here in 2008, he became the first Democrat to do so since Lyndon Johnson in 1968. Given the history, 2008 might have been written off as a fluke. But, when Obama carried Virginia again in 2012 -- by a convincing four points -- he drove home the new reality of the Commonwealth as a swing state. Trump's very narrow primary win over Marco Rubio likely presages his problem in a general election against Clinton here. Trump got killed in northern Virginia, the vote-rich area populated, generally speaking, by lots and lots of establishment Republicans. Clinton will target northern Virginia relentlessly from now until election day