the model.

In his careful way, he continues on to describe why this probably understates the effect, which, in a two-candidate race, would telescope to a 4.8% margin between the two candidates. And 4.8% is, in elective terms, massive.

Still, one imagines the effect on a race for statewide office--particularly governor--would be quite a bit larger among members of public unions. Because, while Democrats are generally supportive of working people, the connection between a president and a school teacher is quite weak. Not so between a governor and a school teacher. Republicans have done more than target public unions; they've demonized the workers who comprise them. This was precisely Walker's calculation when he triggered the current Wisconsin war.

In November, five states elected Democratic governors by margins smaller than Nate's 4.8%:exactly the alleged accuser, Al Alvarez, was hired after the allegation surfaced during the Murphy transition and why he had an apparent deadline to leave the administration.

Alvarez resigned as chief of staff at the Schools Development Authority on Oct. 2 after the news media contacted him about an allegation that he sexually assaulted Katie Brennan, now a top aide at a state housing agency, while they were involved with the Murphy campaign in 2017. Alvarez has denied the allegation and, according to the testimony of his former boss at the authority, Lizette Delgado-Polanco, he and Brennan had a consensual relationship.

Tuesday's first witness, Deputy Chief Counsel Parimal Garg, described to lawmakers how he learned of the alleged assault. He said he was initially approached by Alvarez's accuser, Katie Brennan,