Sanders has been here before. Four years ago, the senator from Vermont lost South Carolina to Hillary Clinton, lost the majority of states on Super Tuesday and fell behind in the delegate race. But he won in enough places on Super Tuesday to give him the incentive to keep going — and he had a plan for regaining momentum in Michigan that included early television ads and a focus on trade in a state sensitive to the issue.

The pre-primary polls showed Clinton with a substantial lead, but on primary night, Sanders won. The margin was narrow — less than two percentage points — but the value of the upset was enormous. The victory revived his campaign, and he took his fight all the way to the convention inPhiladelphia, to the dismay of Clinton forces.

That history makes Michigan the most crucial of the six states with contests this Tuesday, but Sanders could struggle to repeat his performance of four years ago. He won’t be able to sneak up on Biden as he did with Clinton.

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Biden has done well with some of the kinds of Michigan voters Sanders relied on for success in 2016, whether those in small towns and rural areas or those without college degrees. Sanders still has strength in areas with colleges and universities, but by his own acknowledgment, he is not getting the turnout he needs from young voters. Meanwhile, in Michigan districts with large concentrations of African Americans, Sanders lost big in 2016, and Biden has been winning black voters by huge