Project offers detailed analysis of early and absentee voting patterns.

Trump has little chance of capturing the 270 electoral votes necessary to win the Electoral College without winning North Carolina and Florida. Both states were decided by less than 100,000 votes in 2012.

The early vote has emerged as a fiercely fought test of the presidential campaigns’ energy and organization — roughly a third of the vote was cast before Election Day in 2012.

This year, the Clinton campaign expects as many as 40 percent of battleground state votes to be cast before Nov. 8. The campaign’s allies point to optimistic scenarios in which they build insurmountable leads well before Election Day in a handful of swing states — in places as varied as Nevada, Colorado and Virginia.

But McDonald said thereanemic,” he said.

The early-voting performance in Iowa and Ohio tracks with polls showing Trump better positioned in those two states than in North Carolina and Florida. Likewise, in the two Southern states, where Clinton is ahead, according to POLITICO Battleground States polling averages , Democrats report sharp increases in absentee ballot requests from Hispanic, African-American and female voters.

The problem for Trump is that Ohio (18) and Iowa (6) have just 24 electoral votes between them, while North Carolina (15) and Florida (29) together offer 44.

So far, women are requesting ballots at a far faster rate than men in both North Carolina and Florida. That works to Clinton’s advantage — according to the most recent Fox News poll , Clinton had a 19-point advantage over Trump with female voters.

And