behind. By that time, too, people will have traveled to other markets to see the show."

At Pioneer Theatre, Lino challenges the notion that the benefits of a first- or secon-run touring show outweigh UPAC's price tag. It's clear, he says, that demographics and market size, not venue size, drive decisions to stage a show in one city over another.

Lino cites the national tour of Andrew Lloyd Webber's "Phantom of the Opera." It played at San Francisco's Curran Theatre, which holds 1,667 seats, four years before coming to Salt Lake City's Capitol Theatre, with 1,940 seats.

"We've watched the evolution of arguments in favor of this venue change several times over the years," Lino says. "First, they argued that touring productions don't come here because of our small venues. Butthat's clearly not true because 'Wicked' and 'Lion King' have played here. Then they changed their argument to one of first runs being superior to a third, fourth or fifth tour."

In a frank March 22 memo from the county's Center for the Arts to D.J. Baxter, executive director of Salt Lake City's Redevelopment Agency, the county predicted "significant reduction" to the future revenues of Capitol Theatre and Abravanel Hall if UPAC is built. Total revenue losses would run about $1 million the first year, but could be reduced over time to about $600,000 if the Center for the Arts developed "new strategies" to book events at Abravanel and Capitol as certain shows migrated toward the new theater.

Unmentioned is Kingsbury. Owned and operated by the University of Utah, the