what are the odds of flipping four heads in a row
Gambler's fallacy
It does appear , however , that an individual 's susceptibility to the gambler 's fallacy decreases with age . Fischbein and Schnarch ( 1997 ) administered a questionnaire to five groups : students in grades 5 , 7 , 9 , 11 , and college students specializing in teaching mathematics . None of the participants had received any prior education regarding probability . The question was , `` Ronni flipped a coin three times and in all cases heads came up . Ronni intends to flip the coin again . What is the chance of getting heads the fourth time ? '' The results indicated that as the older the students got , the less likely they were to answer with `` smaller than the chance of getting tails '' , which would indicate a negative recency effect . 35 % of the 5th graders , 35 % of the 7th graders , and 20 % of the 9th graders exhibited the negative recency effect . Only 10 % of the 11th graders answered this way , however , and none of the college students did . Fischbein and Schnarch therefore theorized that an individual 's tendency to rely on the representativeness heuristic and other cognitive biases can be overcome with age .
It does appear , however , that an individual 's susceptibility to the gambler 's fallacy decreases with age . Fischbein and Schnarch ( 1997 ) administered a questionnaire to five groups : students in grades 5 , 7 , 9 , 11 , and college students specializing in teaching mathematics . None of the participants had received any prior education regarding probability . The question was , `` Ronni flipped a coin three times and in all cases heads came up . Ronni intends to flip the coin again . What is the chance of getting heads the fourth time ? '' The results indicated that as the older the students got , the less likely they were to answer with `` smaller than the chance of getting tails '' , which would indicate a negative recency effect . 35 % of the 5th graders , 35 % of the 7th graders , and 20 % of the 9th graders exhibited the negative recency effect . Only 10 % of the 11th graders answered this way , however , and none of the college students did . Fischbein and Schnarch therefore theorized that an individual 's tendency to rely on the representativeness heuristic and other cognitive biases can be overcome with age .