ca supply realities for those that have not seen this analysis , attached please find a note from mary schoen detailing the serious physical shortage problems that may occur this summer in ca .
jim
- - - - - forwarded by james d steffes / na / enron on 02 / 26 / 2001 08 : 51 am - - - - -
mary schoen 02 / 22 / 2001 02 : 55 pm to : neil bresnan / hou / ees @ ees , alan comnes / pdx / ect @ ect , jubran whalan / hou / ees @ ees , kristin walsh / hou / ect @ ect , clayton seigle / hou / ect @ ect , jeffrey keeler / corp / enron @ enron , james d steffes / na / enron @ enron , harry kingerski / na / enron @ enron , richard shapiro / na / enron @ enron , janel guerrero / corp / enron @ enron , jeff dasovich / na / enron @ enron , sandra mccubbin / na / enron @ enron , susan j mara / na / enron @ enron , paul kaufman / pdx / ect @ ect cc : subject : ca supply realities
attached is a memo comparing the cec ' s forecasted supply and a more realistic look at what additional resources might be available this summer .
the bottom line is that :
1 . the cec significantly underestimates the outages that may occur this summer . they estimate in their 5 , 000 mw supply deficit for the summer that expected outages will be around 3 , 000 mw . however , november and december saw significantly higher outage levels . ( 7 , 265 mws ) the ferc has investigated these outages and found no improprieties - just that the plants are overtaxed from running at higher than normal capacities .
2 . there are a lot of uncertainties surrounding the 1 , 244 mws of projected supply from rerating / restarting existing thermal and renewable projects . it is very unclear how much of this will be able to come on line by this summer , if at all . as evidenced by the e - mail i sent out this morning , local communities may be very opposed to restarting shut down units . in addition , these units are likely to be uneconomical .
3 . in the existing resource pool , there are roughly 1 , 430 mws of peaking or other generation units that are running up against their operating hour limitations from air quality regulations . the governor has ordered the local air quality districts to address these restrictions , we are beginning to seem some movement ; however , the us epa has yet to weigh in on these relaxed standards .
4 . the distributed generation / back - up generation capacity to make up some of the shortfall is still an unknown . while there has been some relaxing of the limitations on run hours for back - up generation at " essential public services " the increase in dg is expected from " clean " sources , not diesel emergency generators .
5 . the cec is doing everything it can to get 50 + mw peaking units on - line by this summer . they are promising a 21 - day permit application approval process and are offering to pay half of the cost of offsets , for " clean " sources of generation in critical areas .
please let me know if you have any questions or need additional information .
cec ' s summer forecasted peak demand - resource balance :
list of peakers running into their operating hour limitations :
also available in hard copy format only :
( please e - mail me your fax number if you ' d like a copy )
table 1 : fully executed ca iso summer reliability agreements ( the iso peaking facilities )
table 2 : summer 2001 supply options - renewables construction status summary
table 3 : summer 2001 supply options - rerate of non - cec projects
table 4 : summer 2001 supply options - cec rerate status summary
table 5 : idle biomass plants potentially capable of restart
mary schoen
environmental strategies
enron corp
713 - 345 - 7422
ca supply realities
for those that have not seen this analysis , attached please find a note from mary schoen detailing the serious physical shortage problems that may occur this summer in ca .
jim
- - - - - forwarded by james d steffes / na / enron on 02 / 26 / 2001 08 : 51 am - - - - -
mary schoen 02 / 22 / 2001 02 : 55 pm to : neil bresnan / hou / ees @ ees , alan comnes / pdx / ect @ ect , jubran whalan / hou / ees @ ees , kristin walsh / hou / ect @ ect , clayton seigle / hou / ect @ ect , jeffrey keeler / corp / enron @ enron , james d steffes / na / enron @ enron , harry kingerski / na / enron @ enron , richard shapiro / na / enron @ enron , janel guerrero / corp / enron @ enron , jeff dasovich / na / enron @ enron , sandra mccubbin / na / enron @ enron , susan j mara / na / enron @ enron , paul kaufman / pdx / ect @ ect cc : subject : ca supply realities
attached is a memo comparing the cec ' s forecasted supply and a more realistic look at what additional resources might be available this summer .
the bottom line is that :
1 . the cec significantly underestimates the outages that may occur this summer . they estimate in their 5 , 000 mw supply deficit for the summer that expected outages will be around 3 , 000 mw . however , november and december saw significantly higher outage levels . ( 7 , 265 mws ) the ferc has investigated these outages and found no improprieties - just that the plants are overtaxed from running at higher than normal capacities .
2 . there are a lot of uncertainties surrounding the 1 , 244 mws of projected supply from rerating / restarting existing thermal and renewable projects . it is very unclear how much of this will be able to come on line by this summer , if at all . as evidenced by the e - mail i sent out this morning , local communities may be very opposed to restarting shut down units . in addition , these units are likely to be uneconomical .
3 . in the existing resource pool , there are roughly 1 , 430 mws of peaking or other generation units that are running up against their operating hour limitations from air quality regulations . the governor has ordered the local air quality districts to address these restrictions , we are beginning to seem some movement ; however , the us epa has yet to weigh in on these relaxed standards .
4 . the distributed generation / back - up generation capacity to make up some of the shortfall is still an unknown . while there has been some relaxing of the limitations on run hours for back - up generation at " essential public services " the increase in dg is expected from " clean " sources , not diesel emergency generators .
5 . the cec is doing everything it can to get 50 + mw peaking units on - line by this summer . they are promising a 21 - day permit application approval process and are offering to pay half of the cost of offsets , for " clean " sources of generation in critical areas .
please let me know if you have any questions or need additional information .
cec ' s summer forecasted peak demand - resource balance :
list of peakers running into their operating hour limitations :
also available in hard copy format only :
( please e - mail me your fax number if you ' d like a copy )
table 1 : fully executed ca iso summer reliability agreements ( the iso peaking facilities )
table 2 : summer 2001 supply options - renewables construction status summary
table 3 : summer 2001 supply options - rerate of non - cec projects
table 4 : summer 2001 supply options - cec rerate status summary
table 5 : idle biomass plants potentially capable of restart
mary schoen
environmental strategies
enron corp
713 - 345 - 7422