the answer ! ! ! - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - forwarded by mike a roberts / hou / ect on 08 / 09 / 2000
03 : 24 pm - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
nathan mantua on 08 / 09 / 2000 03 : 21 : 37 pm
to : mike a roberts / hou / ect @ ect
cc :
subject : re : pdo
i ' m not sure what to think , other than we really don ' t have a
credible way to determine what will happen with the pdo . one factor
that provides insight into the climate outlook for the next few months
and next few seasons is the expected changes with enso ( for which
there is some demonstrated skill in forecasting ) . the latest
observations show trends to near - normal enso conditions , with
some indication that ocean temperatures will likely be a bit
warmer than normal in the tropics . if this is true , i ' d expect a slight
bias toward el nino - like climate over north america , which would
tend to go against the continuation of cold phase pdo conditions .
best wishes ,
nate mantua
mrobert @ ect . enron . com wrote :
> hi
>
> are you thinking we are moving into a cold phase pdo now ? ?
>
> thanks
>
> mike roberts
- -
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ? nathan mantua email : mantua @ atmos . washington . edu ? ( 206 ) 616 - 5347 fax : ( 206 ) 616 - 5775 ? ? dept of atmospheric sciences , jisao ? university of washington ? box 354235 ? seattle wa 98195 - 4235 ? ? http : / / www . atmos . washington . edu / ~ mantua ? ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
- attl . htm
the answer ! ! !
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - forwarded by mike a roberts / hou / ect on 08 / 09 / 2000
03 : 24 pm - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
nathan mantua on 08 / 09 / 2000 03 : 21 : 37 pm
to : mike a roberts / hou / ect @ ect
cc :
subject : re : pdo
i ' m not sure what to think , other than we really don ' t have a
credible way to determine what will happen with the pdo . one factor
that provides insight into the climate outlook for the next few months
and next few seasons is the expected changes with enso ( for which
there is some demonstrated skill in forecasting ) . the latest
observations show trends to near - normal enso conditions , with
some indication that ocean temperatures will likely be a bit
warmer than normal in the tropics . if this is true , i ' d expect a slight
bias toward el nino - like climate over north america , which would
tend to go against the continuation of cold phase pdo conditions .
best wishes ,
nate mantua
mrobert @ ect . enron . com wrote :
> hi
>
> are you thinking we are moving into a cold phase pdo now ? ?
>
> thanks
>
> mike roberts
- -
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ? nathan mantua email : mantua @ atmos . washington . edu ? ( 206 ) 616 - 5347 fax : ( 206 ) 616 - 5775 ? ? dept of atmospheric sciences , jisao ? university of washington ? box 354235 ? seattle wa 98195 - 4235 ? ? http : / / www . atmos . washington . edu / ~ mantua ? ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
- attl . htm