projected fund giving george -
here is one statistical method ( linear regression ) , applied to hosanna ' s fund
giving . the method is deterministic , where contributions each sunday are
attempted to be explained by significant events on the church ' s and members '
calendars , and the method shoudl be considered in contrast to an anecdotal
one , where each sunday ' s giving might be estimated to be the average giving
of the same sunday ( e . g . , each 2 nd sunday in january ) in the past .
the following effects are estimated independently by the computer ( they add
and subtract with each other accordingly ; some sundays can have more than one
effect " in play " ) :
1 ) most positive for giving : an additional + $ 8 , 802 for special pastoral
appeals ( 3 of them in the past 3 years )
2 ) positive for giving : an additional + $ 2 , 551 easter and nearest - christmas
" sunday , " an additional + $ 59 thanksgiving sunday , and a tiny additional + $ 1
each week pure time trend .
3 ) negative for giving : - $ 304 for sundays of monday federal holiday weekends ,
and - $ 9 during the summer ( june 1 - aug 31 )
4 ) " wave " : there is an $ 80 per week " wave " - giving $ 80 higher one week , $ 80
lower the next , etc . . .
the computer can explain roughly 60 % of the absolute variation in giving the
past 3 years using this approach . keep in mind , much of the information ,
statistically , is captured in the pastoral appeals , easter and christmas
sundays , and holiday weekends . the rest of the variation cannot be explained
by this simple model ( i . e . , it looks like " noise " ) .
here are the predictions for fund giving for the upcoming year . you can
cut - and - paste these numbers to any file or spreadsheet you like . they may
seem " boring " to you ; please remember they are the deterministic components
of a process that involves a lot of volatility , and your church ' s actual
experience will predictably be volatile . these numbers are as - if the " means "
of experiences dependent on the " standard deviations . "
01 / 02 / 00 4611
01 / 09 / 00 4699
01 / 16 / 00 4394
01 / 23 / 00 4705
01 / 30 / 00 4701
02 / 06 / 00 4702
02 / 13 / 00 4703
02 / 20 / 00 4400
02 / 27 / 00 4710
03 / 05 / 00 4706
03 / 12 / 00 4708
03 / 19 / 00 4709
03 / 26 / 00 4710
04 / 02 / 00 4711
04 / 09 / 00 4712
04 / 16 / 00 4713
04 / 23 / 00 7265
04 / 30 / 00 4672
05 / 07 / 00 4717
05 / 14 / 00 4718
05 / 21 / 00 4719
05 / 28 / 00 4416
06 / 04 / 00 4717
06 / 11 / 00 4713
06 / 18 / 00 4714
06 / 25 / 00 4715
07 / 02 / 00 4716
07 / 09 / 00 4718
07 / 16 / 00 4719
07 / 23 / 00 4720
07 / 30 / 00 4721
08 / 06 / 00 4722
08 / 13 / 00 4723
08 / 20 / 00 4724
08 / 27 / 00 4725
09 / 03 / 00 4432
09 / 10 / 00 4742
09 / 17 / 00 4738
09 / 24 / 00 4739
10 / 01 / 00 4740
10 / 08 / 00 4742
10 / 15 / 00 4743
10 / 22 / 00 4744
10 / 29 / 00 4745
11 / 05 / 00 4746
11 / 12 / 00 4747
11 / 19 / 00 4748
11 / 26 / 00 4808
12 / 03 / 00 4750
12 / 10 / 00 4752
12 / 17 / 00 4753
12 / 24 / 00 7305
12 / 31 / 00 4711
best wishes ,
clayton vernon
manager , research
projected fund giving
george -
here is one statistical method ( linear regression ) , applied to hosanna ' s fund
giving . the method is deterministic , where contributions each sunday are
attempted to be explained by significant events on the church ' s and members '
calendars , and the method shoudl be considered in contrast to an anecdotal
one , where each sunday ' s giving might be estimated to be the average giving
of the same sunday ( e . g . , each 2 nd sunday in january ) in the past .
the following effects are estimated independently by the computer ( they add
and subtract with each other accordingly ; some sundays can have more than one
effect " in play " ) :
1 ) most positive for giving : an additional + $ 8 , 802 for special pastoral
appeals ( 3 of them in the past 3 years )
2 ) positive for giving : an additional + $ 2 , 551 easter and nearest - christmas
" sunday , " an additional + $ 59 thanksgiving sunday , and a tiny additional + $ 1
each week pure time trend .
3 ) negative for giving : - $ 304 for sundays of monday federal holiday weekends ,
and - $ 9 during the summer ( june 1 - aug 31 )
4 ) " wave " : there is an $ 80 per week " wave " - giving $ 80 higher one week , $ 80
lower the next , etc . . .
the computer can explain roughly 60 % of the absolute variation in giving the
past 3 years using this approach . keep in mind , much of the information ,
statistically , is captured in the pastoral appeals , easter and christmas
sundays , and holiday weekends . the rest of the variation cannot be explained
by this simple model ( i . e . , it looks like " noise " ) .
here are the predictions for fund giving for the upcoming year . you can
cut - and - paste these numbers to any file or spreadsheet you like . they may
seem " boring " to you ; please remember they are the deterministic components
of a process that involves a lot of volatility , and your church ' s actual
experience will predictably be volatile . these numbers are as - if the " means "
of experiences dependent on the " standard deviations . "
01 / 02 / 00 4611
01 / 09 / 00 4699
01 / 16 / 00 4394
01 / 23 / 00 4705
01 / 30 / 00 4701
02 / 06 / 00 4702
02 / 13 / 00 4703
02 / 20 / 00 4400
02 / 27 / 00 4710
03 / 05 / 00 4706
03 / 12 / 00 4708
03 / 19 / 00 4709
03 / 26 / 00 4710
04 / 02 / 00 4711
04 / 09 / 00 4712
04 / 16 / 00 4713
04 / 23 / 00 7265
04 / 30 / 00 4672
05 / 07 / 00 4717
05 / 14 / 00 4718
05 / 21 / 00 4719
05 / 28 / 00 4416
06 / 04 / 00 4717
06 / 11 / 00 4713
06 / 18 / 00 4714
06 / 25 / 00 4715
07 / 02 / 00 4716
07 / 09 / 00 4718
07 / 16 / 00 4719
07 / 23 / 00 4720
07 / 30 / 00 4721
08 / 06 / 00 4722
08 / 13 / 00 4723
08 / 20 / 00 4724
08 / 27 / 00 4725
09 / 03 / 00 4432
09 / 10 / 00 4742
09 / 17 / 00 4738
09 / 24 / 00 4739
10 / 01 / 00 4740
10 / 08 / 00 4742
10 / 15 / 00 4743
10 / 22 / 00 4744
10 / 29 / 00 4745
11 / 05 / 00 4746
11 / 12 / 00 4747
11 / 19 / 00 4748
11 / 26 / 00 4808
12 / 03 / 00 4750
12 / 10 / 00 4752
12 / 17 / 00 4753
12 / 24 / 00 7305
12 / 31 / 00 4711
best wishes ,
clayton vernon
manager , research