fw : meeting follow - up dan sent this information as a follow up to our meeting this week . if there
is any additional information you would like to see , please let me know .
in the absense of any objections , i would like to begin having our analysts
use the financial stress score to underwrite small exposures where financial
statements are not received . in addtion to saving some expense , this will
allow greater consistentency . and moving forward , i believe we can map
expected defaults from fstress score ranges to those implied in credit
spreads , and in doing so map to e - ratings for use in credit reserve
analytics . i ' ve had prelimiary discussions with rabi and amititava regarding
this .
any additional insights would be helpful , and thanks for your help .
- - - - - original message - - - - -
from : " barry , dan " @ enron
on . com ]
sent : thursday , march 15 , 2001 10 : 26 am
to : mark _ wilson @ enron . com
cc : marcom , karen ; johnson , judy
subject : meeting follow - up
mark ,
attached are a presentation on the financial stress score and the countries
that have risk scores available today . please let me know if you have any
questions .
in response vince ' s question regarding false positives from the model , that
is a little difficult to answer . the model is predicting the likelihood of
a company experiencing financial distress . we are not saying that all
companies with a high risk score will experience financial distress . in
other words , it is not really a yes or no proposition . it ' not like a drug
test where the test either comes back positive or negative and ocassionally ,
you get a false positive test result . we are identifying companies that are
at high risk for failure . some of those high risk companies will fail and
some will not fail . how many in each classification that will ultimately
fail is addressed in the performance charts attached below .
please let me know if you have any other questions or need any additional
information .
dan barry
dun & bradstreet
analytical services
barryd @ dnb . com
phone ( 713 ) 953 - 5458
fax ( 713 ) 953 - 5454
> > >
>
- enron fss . ppt
- globalfailure . ppt
- fin stress understanding . doc
- fss performance . doc
fw : meeting follow - up
dan sent this information as a follow up to our meeting this week . if there
is any additional information you would like to see , please let me know .
in the absense of any objections , i would like to begin having our analysts
use the financial stress score to underwrite small exposures where financial
statements are not received . in addtion to saving some expense , this will
allow greater consistentency . and moving forward , i believe we can map
expected defaults from fstress score ranges to those implied in credit
spreads , and in doing so map to e - ratings for use in credit reserve
analytics . i ' ve had prelimiary discussions with rabi and amititava regarding
this .
any additional insights would be helpful , and thanks for your help .
- - - - - original message - - - - -
from : " barry , dan " @ enron
on . com ]
sent : thursday , march 15 , 2001 10 : 26 am
to : mark _ wilson @ enron . com
cc : marcom , karen ; johnson , judy
subject : meeting follow - up
mark ,
attached are a presentation on the financial stress score and the countries
that have risk scores available today . please let me know if you have any
questions .
in response vince ' s question regarding false positives from the model , that
is a little difficult to answer . the model is predicting the likelihood of
a company experiencing financial distress . we are not saying that all
companies with a high risk score will experience financial distress . in
other words , it is not really a yes or no proposition . it ' not like a drug
test where the test either comes back positive or negative and ocassionally ,
you get a false positive test result . we are identifying companies that are
at high risk for failure . some of those high risk companies will fail and
some will not fail . how many in each classification that will ultimately
fail is addressed in the performance charts attached below .
please let me know if you have any other questions or need any additional
information .
dan barry
dun & bradstreet
analytical services
barryd @ dnb . com
phone ( 713 ) 953 - 5458
fax ( 713 ) 953 - 5454
> > >
>
- enron fss . ppt
- globalfailure . ppt
- fin stress understanding . doc
- fss performance . doc