energy : pg & e bankruptcy ( calpine & mirant ) note - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - forwarded by don miller / hou / ect on 04 / 06 / 2001 03 : 24 pm - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
jon cartwright on 04 / 06 / 2001 01 : 23 : 12 pm
to : " ' rjf energy - gram ' "
cc :
subject : energy : pg & e bankruptcy ( calpine & mirant ) note
> recapping my verbal comments from the 1 : 30 pm call :
>
> * pg & e conf call is 2 : 15 est ( 415 ) 228 - 4835 conf # 5056296
> * calpine has $ 305 million ( pre - tax now that i think about it ) in
> accruals with pg & e as of last week . our numbers and the company ' s
> guidance previously has been that all financial forecasts the firm has
> made exclude those numbers , i . e . any recovery would be a benefit to
> guidance .
> * mirant has never broken out its exposure , but most recent guidance
> excluding pg & e ' s numbers as well . we think mir ' s exposure is close to
> $ 0 . 10 per share , which if ever collected would be additive to estimates .
> * what happens in bankruptcy ? well basically a federal judge will
> precede over the filing and immediately determine operating costs for pg & e
> so that it can remain a going concern . as such , as a letter of the law ,
> operating costs ( which in this case would be purchasing power from cpn ,
> mir , dyn , etc ) are to be kept current . bottom line the credit risks of
> not getting paid go away immediately , net - net cpn and mir will start
> getting paid every day as opposed to accruing revenue like they had been
> doing for the past several months .
> * while the filing has surprised investors , the weakness being
> experienced across the board in the electric power space is way overdone
> in our opinion . we would take advantage of the weakness .
> * we will obviously have more later today and monday , but this is
> actually a positive turn of events for merchant power producers . for pg & e
> bond and common stock owners , that ' s a whole different story .
>
> cpn : sbl
> 2001 eps $ 1 . 80
> 2002 eps $ 2 . 50
> mir sbl
> 2001 eps $ 1 . 60
> 2002 eps $ 1 . 95
>
>
>
> fred schultz - houston
>
>
portable document format ( pdf ) , are viewable using adobe acrobat reader ( tm ) ,
available as freeware at
jon kyle cartwright
vp & senior energy analyst
raymond james & associates
taxable fixed income research
raymond james financial center
tower iii , third floor
880 carillon parkway
st . petersburg , fl 33733 - 2749
telephone : 727 - 573 - 8366
facsimile : 815 - 425 - 4161
jcartwright @ fi . rjf . com
raymond james & associates , inc .
member new york stock exchange / sipc
institutional clients may call for additional information : high grade
trading 800 - 248 - 8863 ext . 8336 * high yield trading 800 - 448 - 6623
this communication is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any
securities mentioned herein . high grade and high yield securities mentioned
herein may not be suitable for all investors . raymond james & associates ,
inc . or its affiliates ( rja ) may perform investment banking or other
services for , or solicit investment banking business from , any company
mentioned in this report . rja or its officers , employees , or affiliates may
own shares , options , rights or warrants and / or execute transactions in the
securities mentioned in this report , which may not be consistent with the
report ' s conclusions . additionally , rja may at times elect to make markets
in particular high yield securities , but there can be no guarantee that our
market making activities will be uninterrupted . all expressions of opinion
reflect the judgment of the research department of raymond james &
associates , inc . , at the time of publication and may be subject to change
without notice . information has been obtained from sources considered
reliable , but we do not guarantee that the foregoing report is accurate or
complete . other departments of rja may have information that is not
available to the research department about companies mentioned in this
report . for institutional clients of the european economic area ( eea ) : this
document ( and any attachments or exhibits hereto ) is intended only for eea
institutional clients or others to whom it may lawfully be submitted .
further information on the securities mentioned herein is available upon
request .
? 2001 raymond james & associates , inc .
energy : pg & e bankruptcy ( calpine & mirant ) note
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - forwarded by don miller / hou / ect on 04 / 06 / 2001 03 : 24 pm - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
jon cartwright on 04 / 06 / 2001 01 : 23 : 12 pm
to : " ' rjf energy - gram ' "
cc :
subject : energy : pg & e bankruptcy ( calpine & mirant ) note
> recapping my verbal comments from the 1 : 30 pm call :
>
> * pg & e conf call is 2 : 15 est ( 415 ) 228 - 4835 conf # 5056296
> * calpine has $ 305 million ( pre - tax now that i think about it ) in
> accruals with pg & e as of last week . our numbers and the company ' s
> guidance previously has been that all financial forecasts the firm has
> made exclude those numbers , i . e . any recovery would be a benefit to
> guidance .
> * mirant has never broken out its exposure , but most recent guidance
> excluding pg & e ' s numbers as well . we think mir ' s exposure is close to
> $ 0 . 10 per share , which if ever collected would be additive to estimates .
> * what happens in bankruptcy ? well basically a federal judge will
> precede over the filing and immediately determine operating costs for pg & e
> so that it can remain a going concern . as such , as a letter of the law ,
> operating costs ( which in this case would be purchasing power from cpn ,
> mir , dyn , etc ) are to be kept current . bottom line the credit risks of
> not getting paid go away immediately , net - net cpn and mir will start
> getting paid every day as opposed to accruing revenue like they had been
> doing for the past several months .
> * while the filing has surprised investors , the weakness being
> experienced across the board in the electric power space is way overdone
> in our opinion . we would take advantage of the weakness .
> * we will obviously have more later today and monday , but this is
> actually a positive turn of events for merchant power producers . for pg & e
> bond and common stock owners , that ' s a whole different story .
>
> cpn : sbl
> 2001 eps $ 1 . 80
> 2002 eps $ 2 . 50
> mir sbl
> 2001 eps $ 1 . 60
> 2002 eps $ 1 . 95
>
>
>
> fred schultz - houston
>
>
portable document format ( pdf ) , are viewable using adobe acrobat reader ( tm ) ,
available as freeware at
jon kyle cartwright
vp & senior energy analyst
raymond james & associates
taxable fixed income research
raymond james financial center
tower iii , third floor
880 carillon parkway
st . petersburg , fl 33733 - 2749
telephone : 727 - 573 - 8366
facsimile : 815 - 425 - 4161
jcartwright @ fi . rjf . com
raymond james & associates , inc .
member new york stock exchange / sipc
institutional clients may call for additional information : high grade
trading 800 - 248 - 8863 ext . 8336 * high yield trading 800 - 448 - 6623
this communication is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any
securities mentioned herein . high grade and high yield securities mentioned
herein may not be suitable for all investors . raymond james & associates ,
inc . or its affiliates ( rja ) may perform investment banking or other
services for , or solicit investment banking business from , any company
mentioned in this report . rja or its officers , employees , or affiliates may
own shares , options , rights or warrants and / or execute transactions in the
securities mentioned in this report , which may not be consistent with the
report ' s conclusions . additionally , rja may at times elect to make markets
in particular high yield securities , but there can be no guarantee that our
market making activities will be uninterrupted . all expressions of opinion
reflect the judgment of the research department of raymond james &
associates , inc . , at the time of publication and may be subject to change
without notice . information has been obtained from sources considered
reliable , but we do not guarantee that the foregoing report is accurate or
complete . other departments of rja may have information that is not
available to the research department about companies mentioned in this
report . for institutional clients of the european economic area ( eea ) : this
document ( and any attachments or exhibits hereto ) is intended only for eea
institutional clients or others to whom it may lawfully be submitted .
further information on the securities mentioned herein is available upon
request .
? 2001 raymond james & associates , inc .