fw : csfb independent power weekly - issue # 35 - - - - - original message - - - - -
from : stein , neil [ mailto : neil . stein @ csfb . com ]
sent : monday , july 16 , 2001 8 : 00 am
to : undisclosed - recipients
subject : csfb independent power weekly - issue # 35
good morning ,
attached , please find the latest issue of our independent power weekly .
> >
summary :
1 . ipps fall 1 . 9 % last week our ipp composite fell 1 . 9 % , underperforming
both the nasdaq ( + 4 . 0 % ) and the s 2 . ) the ferc settlement conference
adjourned on july 9 . on july 12 , the presiding alj issued a recommendation
favorable to generators ; 3 . ) on july 12 , the us bankruptcy court approved
calpine ' s settlement with pg and , 4 . ) on july 10 , nrg energy announced it
would acquire a 2 , 255 mw portfolio from indeck .
3 . latin america pressuring aes earnings the likelihood of downside to our
2001 eps estimate for aes . corp . of $ 1 . 89 has increased materially . we
believe the ongoing currency weakness combined with power rationing have the
potential to negatively impact 2001 eps by $ 0 . 25 - $ 0 . 30 versus prior
expectations - on a stand - alone basis . while management indicated in mid - may
that it could offset weakness in brazil , the currency has materially
depreciated since that time and shows no signs of improvement in the
near - term . aes ' s second quarter earnings conference call will take place on
july 26 . following the call , we will adjust our 2001 estimate accordingly ,
unless management indicates that it remains positioned to offset these items
through upside in other parts of its business .
4 . ferc alj issues report on thursday ( 7 / 12 ) , curtis wagner , the
administrative law judge who presided over the recent settlement conference ,
issued a report presenting his findings and recommendations for next steps .
overall , the report was very much consistent with our expectations . while
wagner notes that some refunds are due from the generators , he argues that
the $ 8 . 9 billion demanded by the state of california " cannot be
substantiated . " we believe calpine and mirant offer the greatest downside
protection from this issue .
5 . csfb power generation supply chain conference on september 10 and 11 ,
csfb will host a power generation supply chain conference at the plaza hotel
in new york city . this event is designed to provide investors with a
wholistic perspective on all aspects of the sector - from coal and natural gas
companies , to equipment and construction service providers , to the power
producers themselves . please contact us if you would like additional
information .
regards ,
neil stein 212 / 325 - 4217
bryan sifert 212 / 325 - 3906
this message is for the named person ' s use only . it may contain
confidential , proprietary or legally privileged information . no
confidentiality or privilege is waived or lost by any mistransmission .
if you receive this message in error , please immediately delete it and all
copies of it from your system , destroy any hard copies of it and notify the
sender . you must not , directly or indirectly , use , disclose , distribute ,
print , or copy any part of this message if you are not the intended
recipient . credit suisse group and each of its subsidiaries each reserve
the right to monitor all e - mail communications through its networks . any
views expressed in this message are those of the individual sender , except
where the message states otherwise and the sender is authorised to state
them to be the views of any such entity .
unless otherwise stated , any pricing information given in this message is
indicative only , is subject to change and does not constitute an offer to
deal at any price quoted .
any reference to the terms of executed transactions should be treated as
preliminary only and subject to our formal written confirmation .
fw : csfb independent power weekly - issue # 35
- - - - - original message - - - - -
from : stein , neil [ mailto : neil . stein @ csfb . com ]
sent : monday , july 16 , 2001 8 : 00 am
to : undisclosed - recipients
subject : csfb independent power weekly - issue # 35
good morning ,
attached , please find the latest issue of our independent power weekly .
> >
summary :
1 . ipps fall 1 . 9 % last week our ipp composite fell 1 . 9 % , underperforming
both the nasdaq ( + 4 . 0 % ) and the s 2 . ) the ferc settlement conference
adjourned on july 9 . on july 12 , the presiding alj issued a recommendation
favorable to generators ; 3 . ) on july 12 , the us bankruptcy court approved
calpine ' s settlement with pg and , 4 . ) on july 10 , nrg energy announced it
would acquire a 2 , 255 mw portfolio from indeck .
3 . latin america pressuring aes earnings the likelihood of downside to our
2001 eps estimate for aes . corp . of $ 1 . 89 has increased materially . we
believe the ongoing currency weakness combined with power rationing have the
potential to negatively impact 2001 eps by $ 0 . 25 - $ 0 . 30 versus prior
expectations - on a stand - alone basis . while management indicated in mid - may
that it could offset weakness in brazil , the currency has materially
depreciated since that time and shows no signs of improvement in the
near - term . aes ' s second quarter earnings conference call will take place on
july 26 . following the call , we will adjust our 2001 estimate accordingly ,
unless management indicates that it remains positioned to offset these items
through upside in other parts of its business .
4 . ferc alj issues report on thursday ( 7 / 12 ) , curtis wagner , the
administrative law judge who presided over the recent settlement conference ,
issued a report presenting his findings and recommendations for next steps .
overall , the report was very much consistent with our expectations . while
wagner notes that some refunds are due from the generators , he argues that
the $ 8 . 9 billion demanded by the state of california " cannot be
substantiated . " we believe calpine and mirant offer the greatest downside
protection from this issue .
5 . csfb power generation supply chain conference on september 10 and 11 ,
csfb will host a power generation supply chain conference at the plaza hotel
in new york city . this event is designed to provide investors with a
wholistic perspective on all aspects of the sector - from coal and natural gas
companies , to equipment and construction service providers , to the power
producers themselves . please contact us if you would like additional
information .
regards ,
neil stein 212 / 325 - 4217
bryan sifert 212 / 325 - 3906
this message is for the named person ' s use only . it may contain
confidential , proprietary or legally privileged information . no
confidentiality or privilege is waived or lost by any mistransmission .
if you receive this message in error , please immediately delete it and all
copies of it from your system , destroy any hard copies of it and notify the
sender . you must not , directly or indirectly , use , disclose , distribute ,
print , or copy any part of this message if you are not the intended
recipient . credit suisse group and each of its subsidiaries each reserve
the right to monitor all e - mail communications through its networks . any
views expressed in this message are those of the individual sender , except
where the message states otherwise and the sender is authorised to state
them to be the views of any such entity .
unless otherwise stated , any pricing information given in this message is
indicative only , is subject to change and does not constitute an offer to
deal at any price quoted .
any reference to the terms of executed transactions should be treated as
preliminary only and subject to our formal written confirmation .