competitive analysis update # 21 - aftermath of terrorist strikes strategic synopsis
september 21 , 2001
10 : 30 am
? the presidential address last night confirmed that a major military mobilization is under way and that a long campaign is ahead , extending well beyond afghanistan . not surprisingly , the speech did not clarify the timing of the attack .
? the president warned the taliban that unless it handed over osama bin laden and the leaders of his al - qaeda terrorist network , it would face devastating military action . " they will hand over the terrorists , or they will share in their fate , " bush told the us congress . so far , the taliban are refusing to comply .
? as such , u . s . military forces will strike in afghanistan as soon as a target of opportunity presents itself . as the president himself noted in his speech last night , some of the special forces operations will not be visible to the public , while other steps such as airstrikes will be dramatic and unmistakable . trying to figure out the precise timing of specific types of strikes is probably impossible at this point . however , we safely state the following :
o the president set the stage for a long conflict last night , and equity markets are anticipating significant economic pessimism . consumer confidence is likely to worsen if additional terrorist attacks are made against u . s . targets .
o our sources indicate that bush spoke at length with saudi crown prince abdullah this week , and abdullah agreed to lower oil prices . no specifics were discussed . preliminary information suggests that saudi arabia is carrying out extra liftings in the second half of september and moving crude cargoes closer to market .
o when the initial attack comes against afghanistan , oil markets will likely see confirmation that no threat to crude oil supply is taking place . but speculation about further strikes against other terrorist - sponsoring states should maintain a degree of uncertainty in the market .
o the war against terrorism will eventually have to deal with iran and iraq ; both are major opec producers . persuading iran to cooperate is more likely to involve diplomacy than force . some administration officials , led by deputy defense secretary paul wolfowitz , are pushing for a move against baghdad . so far , this group has been overruled by advocates of a more cautious approach , who realize that attacking iraq will seriously undermine arab support for the us .
o washington also has to be concerned with stability in pakistan , where much of the population ( including senior military and intelligence figures ) supports the taliban .
o terrorist retaliation to the u . s . attacks appears to be likely . attempts to strike infrastructure targets , including energy facilities both here and overseas , are expected .
o on the ground today , heavy fighting is raging in northern afghanistan as opposition forces attack taliban troops . the northern alliance forces are taking advantage of us pressure on the taliban to recapture key areas and avenge the recent death of their leader .
competitive analysis update # 21 - aftermath of terrorist strikes
strategic synopsis
september 21 , 2001
10 : 30 am
? the presidential address last night confirmed that a major military mobilization is under way and that a long campaign is ahead , extending well beyond afghanistan . not surprisingly , the speech did not clarify the timing of the attack .
? the president warned the taliban that unless it handed over osama bin laden and the leaders of his al - qaeda terrorist network , it would face devastating military action . " they will hand over the terrorists , or they will share in their fate , " bush told the us congress . so far , the taliban are refusing to comply .
? as such , u . s . military forces will strike in afghanistan as soon as a target of opportunity presents itself . as the president himself noted in his speech last night , some of the special forces operations will not be visible to the public , while other steps such as airstrikes will be dramatic and unmistakable . trying to figure out the precise timing of specific types of strikes is probably impossible at this point . however , we safely state the following :
o the president set the stage for a long conflict last night , and equity markets are anticipating significant economic pessimism . consumer confidence is likely to worsen if additional terrorist attacks are made against u . s . targets .
o our sources indicate that bush spoke at length with saudi crown prince abdullah this week , and abdullah agreed to lower oil prices . no specifics were discussed . preliminary information suggests that saudi arabia is carrying out extra liftings in the second half of september and moving crude cargoes closer to market .
o when the initial attack comes against afghanistan , oil markets will likely see confirmation that no threat to crude oil supply is taking place . but speculation about further strikes against other terrorist - sponsoring states should maintain a degree of uncertainty in the market .
o the war against terrorism will eventually have to deal with iran and iraq ; both are major opec producers . persuading iran to cooperate is more likely to involve diplomacy than force . some administration officials , led by deputy defense secretary paul wolfowitz , are pushing for a move against baghdad . so far , this group has been overruled by advocates of a more cautious approach , who realize that attacking iraq will seriously undermine arab support for the us .
o washington also has to be concerned with stability in pakistan , where much of the population ( including senior military and intelligence figures ) supports the taliban .
o terrorist retaliation to the u . s . attacks appears to be likely . attempts to strike infrastructure targets , including energy facilities both here and overseas , are expected .
o on the ground today , heavy fighting is raging in northern afghanistan as opposition forces attack taliban troops . the northern alliance forces are taking advantage of us pressure on the taliban to recapture key areas and avenge the recent death of their leader .