competitive analysis update # 18 - us terrorism attacks political / security update :
headlines
? taliban to declare " jihad " against the us if afghanistan targeted ; heightening expectations for retaliatory attacks against us targets .
? bush stokes unease among allies and international press with call for bin ladin to be brought to the u . s . , " dead or alive . "
? taliban offers to deliver bin ladin to a third country , likely a muslim country . offer almost certain to be rejected by bush administration .
? fbi arrests five additional suspected hijackers ; raising expectations for further attacks
? u . s . officials to meet with saudi foreign minister in washington ; questions to be asked about involvement of sons of saudi diplomat in attacks
analysis
? efforts by the bush administration to build a multilateral coalition against terrorism will have to address two key foreign policy issues : iraq and the israel - palestinian peace process . missteps in either area could weaken the emerging multilateral coalition against terrorism and have important implications for the oil market .
? for a multilateral approach to work in the long term , the administration will need to provide countries with incentives to cooperate in the anti - terrorism campaign , especially in places such as the moderate arab states where dismantling the networks suspected of supporting terrorist groups will involve moving against internal targets . moreover , the administration will need to deal with the root causes that provide willing cadres to extremist groups , especially economic problems and political disenfranchisement . dealing with all of these factors will necessitate us financial support as well as greater us imagination in dealing with lingering regional issues .
policy towards iraq .
? washington appears to be resisting attempts to broaden its attacks to include iraq at this point , despite internal and external pressure for such action . this will be a leading indicator , assuming that no firm proof of baghdad ' s involvement in the bombings is uncovered . a more aggressive us approach towards iraq has seemed likely since july when moscow blocked the introduction of " smart sanctions " during the last rollover of the oil - for - food program .
? however , given regional sensitivities in the arab world to washington ' s iraq policy and the interests that states such as russia and to a lesser extent china have in the country , the bush administration cannot have both a genuinely multilateral approach to anti - terrorism and an unilateral hard - line iraqi policy . it will need to chose between one or the other .
israeli - palestinian peace process .
? without an equitable solution to this conflict , most experts believe that the bush team ' s anti - terrorism coalition is doomed to failure .
? initially , at least , the signs are not good : the sharon government in israel has been resistant to us pressure to rein in its aggressive policies towards the palestinians
? washington ' s willingness to confront israel on this issue will give a clue to its willingness to stay the anti - terrorism course and hold its broad coalition together .
market update :
us equities :
? next 48 hours seen as critical after yesterday ' s losses and fed cut . 8750 on dow seen as key resistance point : looking for decisive close below 8750 , not just intra - day test . downside risk seen to 7500 if the 8750 area doesn ' t hold : 7500 key b / c it was the nadir of asian crisis .
? two wildcards : company warnings : will the torrent continue ? ( slight positive coming out of oracle ) ; war : issue remains scope , duration .
asia overnight :
? bank of japan , with little headline opportunities to ease , but after much speculation and criticism did cut its discount rate 15 bps to . 1 % from . 25 % late in tokyo today . the nikkei closed up 175 . 47 .
europe :
? equities : european markets are down ( as of 0630 cdt ) uniformly around 2 % but most of the losses were at the opening with stability since .
? currencies : us $ steady in european trading with marginal gains against most currencies . there may be uncertainty about the $ but conversations over the last two days uniformly confirm that there is no renewed confidence in the euro . the swiss franc continues to be the biggest beneficiary of the crisis .
? central banking : the bank of england mpc decided to cut this afternoon , but only 25 bps : less and later than expected . the monthly inflation numbers complicated the picture with a higher than expected rise , rising + . 4 % in aug and now + 2 . 6 % annual , rising above government target of + 2 . 5 % for the first time in 28 months .
? european airlines : mirroring american counterparts ' woes in today ' s trading : klm issued a profit warning , virgin cut jobs , alitalia appealed for government assistance ; all airlines are off in trading , though not as badly as in us
infrastructure
nuclear power
? delegates from 132 nations opened the annual international atomic energy agency conference monday with calls for tighter security - and admissions that little can be done to shield a nuclear power plant from an airborne assault .
? the architects of the world ' s nuclear plants designed them more with ground vehicle - not airborne - attacks in mind .
? the buildings that house nuclear reactors themselves are far smaller targets than the pentagon posed , and it would be extremely difficult for a terrorist to mount a direct hit at an angle that could unleash a catastrophic chain of events
? u . s . experts are proposing the installation of anti - aircraft weaponry manned by military personnel who would be stationed outside the nation ' s 104 commercial reactors
airlines
attorney general john ashcroft assigns federal agents to domestic commercial flights ; said law enforcement officers believe there is a continuing threat because " associates of the hijackers that have ties to terrorist organizations may be a continuing presence in the united states . "
competitive analysis update # 18 - us terrorism attacks
political / security update :
headlines
? taliban to declare " jihad " against the us if afghanistan targeted ; heightening expectations for retaliatory attacks against us targets .
? bush stokes unease among allies and international press with call for bin ladin to be brought to the u . s . , " dead or alive . "
? taliban offers to deliver bin ladin to a third country , likely a muslim country . offer almost certain to be rejected by bush administration .
? fbi arrests five additional suspected hijackers ; raising expectations for further attacks
? u . s . officials to meet with saudi foreign minister in washington ; questions to be asked about involvement of sons of saudi diplomat in attacks
analysis
? efforts by the bush administration to build a multilateral coalition against terrorism will have to address two key foreign policy issues : iraq and the israel - palestinian peace process . missteps in either area could weaken the emerging multilateral coalition against terrorism and have important implications for the oil market .
? for a multilateral approach to work in the long term , the administration will need to provide countries with incentives to cooperate in the anti - terrorism campaign , especially in places such as the moderate arab states where dismantling the networks suspected of supporting terrorist groups will involve moving against internal targets . moreover , the administration will need to deal with the root causes that provide willing cadres to extremist groups , especially economic problems and political disenfranchisement . dealing with all of these factors will necessitate us financial support as well as greater us imagination in dealing with lingering regional issues .
policy towards iraq .
? washington appears to be resisting attempts to broaden its attacks to include iraq at this point , despite internal and external pressure for such action . this will be a leading indicator , assuming that no firm proof of baghdad ' s involvement in the bombings is uncovered . a more aggressive us approach towards iraq has seemed likely since july when moscow blocked the introduction of " smart sanctions " during the last rollover of the oil - for - food program .
? however , given regional sensitivities in the arab world to washington ' s iraq policy and the interests that states such as russia and to a lesser extent china have in the country , the bush administration cannot have both a genuinely multilateral approach to anti - terrorism and an unilateral hard - line iraqi policy . it will need to chose between one or the other .
israeli - palestinian peace process .
? without an equitable solution to this conflict , most experts believe that the bush team ' s anti - terrorism coalition is doomed to failure .
? initially , at least , the signs are not good : the sharon government in israel has been resistant to us pressure to rein in its aggressive policies towards the palestinians
? washington ' s willingness to confront israel on this issue will give a clue to its willingness to stay the anti - terrorism course and hold its broad coalition together .
market update :
us equities :
? next 48 hours seen as critical after yesterday ' s losses and fed cut . 8750 on dow seen as key resistance point : looking for decisive close below 8750 , not just intra - day test . downside risk seen to 7500 if the 8750 area doesn ' t hold : 7500 key b / c it was the nadir of asian crisis .
? two wildcards : company warnings : will the torrent continue ? ( slight positive coming out of oracle ) ; war : issue remains scope , duration .
asia overnight :
? bank of japan , with little headline opportunities to ease , but after much speculation and criticism did cut its discount rate 15 bps to . 1 % from . 25 % late in tokyo today . the nikkei closed up 175 . 47 .
europe :
? equities : european markets are down ( as of 0630 cdt ) uniformly around 2 % but most of the losses were at the opening with stability since .
? currencies : us $ steady in european trading with marginal gains against most currencies . there may be uncertainty about the $ but conversations over the last two days uniformly confirm that there is no renewed confidence in the euro . the swiss franc continues to be the biggest beneficiary of the crisis .
? central banking : the bank of england mpc decided to cut this afternoon , but only 25 bps : less and later than expected . the monthly inflation numbers complicated the picture with a higher than expected rise , rising + . 4 % in aug and now + 2 . 6 % annual , rising above government target of + 2 . 5 % for the first time in 28 months .
? european airlines : mirroring american counterparts ' woes in today ' s trading : klm issued a profit warning , virgin cut jobs , alitalia appealed for government assistance ; all airlines are off in trading , though not as badly as in us
infrastructure
nuclear power
? delegates from 132 nations opened the annual international atomic energy agency conference monday with calls for tighter security - and admissions that little can be done to shield a nuclear power plant from an airborne assault .
? the architects of the world ' s nuclear plants designed them more with ground vehicle - not airborne - attacks in mind .
? the buildings that house nuclear reactors themselves are far smaller targets than the pentagon posed , and it would be extremely difficult for a terrorist to mount a direct hit at an angle that could unleash a catastrophic chain of events
? u . s . experts are proposing the installation of anti - aircraft weaponry manned by military personnel who would be stationed outside the nation ' s 104 commercial reactors
airlines
attorney general john ashcroft assigns federal agents to domestic commercial flights ; said law enforcement officers believe there is a continuing threat because " associates of the hijackers that have ties to terrorist organizations may be a continuing presence in the united states . "