re : the consultant ' s model for gary hickerson ' s group the model is supposed to be a real option model to capture the value of
power plants of gencos . it is to give trader a better insight as to whether
the
market is overvaluing / undervaluing certain genco stocks , and trader can
act accordingly . i ' m still trying to find out how trader is supposed to use
it .
modeling details :
the model takes in all gencos ' locational power forward prices and fuel
forward
prices , and uses garch model to simulate one year daily prices , and then
uses a hourly profile to convert them into hourly prices . garch model
parameters
are estimated by the consultant using and separate model and
are updated twice a year , and it does not matter whether the simulation starts
in january or september .
using these prices , it will determine whether a unit at a particular location
will be dispatched
or not depending on a ) spread of power and fuel prices , and b ) whether the
start - up
cost can be recovered during 8 operation hours . the unit can be dispatched at
minimum and peak levels . fixed o & m , sox and nox ( i don ' t know what the last
two stand for )
are taken into consideration .
with the simulated dispatch schedule , the model calculates the value that can
be generated
by this unit , then sums it up across all units .
the final value is the average of 100 simulations . and it takes about 16
hours to run for about
200 units .
after our conversation , the consultant promised to look into a ) how to make
the model more flexible ,
say , to allow a different time horizon , b ) reduce spreadsheet overhead by
doing calculation one
unit a time and not saving all the intermediate information ( as of now it
saves everything
on the spreadsheet ) .
assuming the garch process is modelled correctly , i believe the methodology
is ok , though
it does not capture most of the optionality .
my concerns are :
whether the price processes are modelled correctly . i have to get more
details before making
any conclusion .
100 simulations are way too few . unless we convert the algorithm to c , i
don ' t see how spreadsheet
can handle more simulations . i guess that ' s why they contact us . but again ,
if enron ' s buying the
model from the consulting company , why should enron do their job for them ?
how trader ' s going to use the model output . for this i phoned jeff ( the
associate who initiated all
these ) and am still waiting for his returning call . a related questions why
the model horizon is one year .
we can either
oversee the conversation , but not doing actual coding for them .
or
redo the model for them . ( the problem still remains that how trader ' s going
to use the output ) . but
in view of the great wall of china separating the business units , should we
do it ?
as of now i have a simulation model taking start - up cost , fixed o & m , rump - up
delay into consideration .
it simulates monthly prices ( using gbm ) and takes 2 minutes 40 seconds to run
10 , 000 simulations for
one unit for ten years ( 120 time steps ) . it can use forward - forward vol and
incorporate seasonality into
it ( i understand this is debatable ) . ( one interesting observation is that
when using forward - forward vol
simulation , the standard deviation is about 0 . 5 % , while standard deviation
using forward vol is about
2 % . also , incorporating seasonality increases the value by about 1 . 6 % ) . since
most of the time - cost
occurs in price simulation , and we are to simulate about 20 price processes ,
i hope the full model
( if we build it ) will take a couple of hours to run for 200 units . the main
task will be interfacing , i . e . ,
getting data from data base , and outputting the results . this is where i need
most help if i am to do it .
please advice the course of action . i am supposed to talk to michelle
cisneros today .
p . s . i never promised to oversee a programmer in our group ( see the message
below ) .
best ,
alex
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - forwarded by alex huang / corp / enron on 01 / 05 / 2001 08 : 58
am - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
jeff m gray
01 / 04 / 2001
to : gary . hickerson @ enron . com , michael . w . bradley @ enron . com ,
michelle . d . cisneros @ enron . com , jaime . gualy @ enron . com
cc : alex . huang @ enron . com , kskinner @ ftenergy . com , cseiple @ ftenergy . com
subject : fw : project timeline
ken and i worked up the following timeline and refined the trading
methodology a bit this morning . we also met with alex huang from vince ' s
group , and explained the model and coding tasks . ken and alex have arranged
to speak by phone on monday , and meanwhile alex is coordinating within the
research group . alex will oversee a programmer within his group , while
interfacing regularly with us .
1 / 4 kickoff
1 / 11 complete spreadsheet , table , and database structures ( rdi ) .
1 / 17 complete software coding for the pricemaker component of the model
( rdi and enron research ) , and begin testing ( enron research ) .
1 / 22 complete software coding for the dispatch portion of the model ( rdi
and enron research ) , and begin testing ( enron research ) .
1 / 22 complete financial trader " user " interface , within the access
environment ( rdi ) .
1 / 22 complete collection and delivery of unverified generating - unit data from
rdi databases ( rdi ) . begin verification process ( rdi ) .
1 / 29 complete all charts and reports accessible from the user interface
( rdi ) .
1 / 29 complete compilation of consensus ebitda forecasts for all operations
other than merchant generation ( enron financial trading ) .
2 / 9 complete code testing ( enron research ) .
2 / 9 deliver verified and quality - checked generating - unit data ( rdi ) .
2 / 9 complete the model , begin testing the trading methodology , and train
users .
2 / 16 finish training , testing , and final qc .
jeff
re : the consultant ' s model for gary hickerson ' s group
the model is supposed to be a real option model to capture the value of
power plants of gencos . it is to give trader a better insight as to whether
the
market is overvaluing / undervaluing certain genco stocks , and trader can
act accordingly . i ' m still trying to find out how trader is supposed to use
it .
modeling details :
the model takes in all gencos ' locational power forward prices and fuel
forward
prices , and uses garch model to simulate one year daily prices , and then
uses a hourly profile to convert them into hourly prices . garch model
parameters
are estimated by the consultant using and separate model and
are updated twice a year , and it does not matter whether the simulation starts
in january or september .
using these prices , it will determine whether a unit at a particular location
will be dispatched
or not depending on a ) spread of power and fuel prices , and b ) whether the
start - up
cost can be recovered during 8 operation hours . the unit can be dispatched at
minimum and peak levels . fixed o & m , sox and nox ( i don ' t know what the last
two stand for )
are taken into consideration .
with the simulated dispatch schedule , the model calculates the value that can
be generated
by this unit , then sums it up across all units .
the final value is the average of 100 simulations . and it takes about 16
hours to run for about
200 units .
after our conversation , the consultant promised to look into a ) how to make
the model more flexible ,
say , to allow a different time horizon , b ) reduce spreadsheet overhead by
doing calculation one
unit a time and not saving all the intermediate information ( as of now it
saves everything
on the spreadsheet ) .
assuming the garch process is modelled correctly , i believe the methodology
is ok , though
it does not capture most of the optionality .
my concerns are :
whether the price processes are modelled correctly . i have to get more
details before making
any conclusion .
100 simulations are way too few . unless we convert the algorithm to c , i
don ' t see how spreadsheet
can handle more simulations . i guess that ' s why they contact us . but again ,
if enron ' s buying the
model from the consulting company , why should enron do their job for them ?
how trader ' s going to use the model output . for this i phoned jeff ( the
associate who initiated all
these ) and am still waiting for his returning call . a related questions why
the model horizon is one year .
we can either
oversee the conversation , but not doing actual coding for them .
or
redo the model for them . ( the problem still remains that how trader ' s going
to use the output ) . but
in view of the great wall of china separating the business units , should we
do it ?
as of now i have a simulation model taking start - up cost , fixed o & m , rump - up
delay into consideration .
it simulates monthly prices ( using gbm ) and takes 2 minutes 40 seconds to run
10 , 000 simulations for
one unit for ten years ( 120 time steps ) . it can use forward - forward vol and
incorporate seasonality into
it ( i understand this is debatable ) . ( one interesting observation is that
when using forward - forward vol
simulation , the standard deviation is about 0 . 5 % , while standard deviation
using forward vol is about
2 % . also , incorporating seasonality increases the value by about 1 . 6 % ) . since
most of the time - cost
occurs in price simulation , and we are to simulate about 20 price processes ,
i hope the full model
( if we build it ) will take a couple of hours to run for 200 units . the main
task will be interfacing , i . e . ,
getting data from data base , and outputting the results . this is where i need
most help if i am to do it .
please advice the course of action . i am supposed to talk to michelle
cisneros today .
p . s . i never promised to oversee a programmer in our group ( see the message
below ) .
best ,
alex
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - forwarded by alex huang / corp / enron on 01 / 05 / 2001 08 : 58
am - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
jeff m gray
01 / 04 / 2001
to : gary . hickerson @ enron . com , michael . w . bradley @ enron . com ,
michelle . d . cisneros @ enron . com , jaime . gualy @ enron . com
cc : alex . huang @ enron . com , kskinner @ ftenergy . com , cseiple @ ftenergy . com
subject : fw : project timeline
ken and i worked up the following timeline and refined the trading
methodology a bit this morning . we also met with alex huang from vince ' s
group , and explained the model and coding tasks . ken and alex have arranged
to speak by phone on monday , and meanwhile alex is coordinating within the
research group . alex will oversee a programmer within his group , while
interfacing regularly with us .
1 / 4 kickoff
1 / 11 complete spreadsheet , table , and database structures ( rdi ) .
1 / 17 complete software coding for the pricemaker component of the model
( rdi and enron research ) , and begin testing ( enron research ) .
1 / 22 complete software coding for the dispatch portion of the model ( rdi
and enron research ) , and begin testing ( enron research ) .
1 / 22 complete financial trader " user " interface , within the access
environment ( rdi ) .
1 / 22 complete collection and delivery of unverified generating - unit data from
rdi databases ( rdi ) . begin verification process ( rdi ) .
1 / 29 complete all charts and reports accessible from the user interface
( rdi ) .
1 / 29 complete compilation of consensus ebitda forecasts for all operations
other than merchant generation ( enron financial trading ) .
2 / 9 complete code testing ( enron research ) .
2 / 9 deliver verified and quality - checked generating - unit data ( rdi ) .
2 / 9 complete the model , begin testing the trading methodology , and train
users .
2 / 16 finish training , testing , and final qc .
jeff