fw : csfb independent power weekly - issue # 30 - - - - - original message - - - - -
from : " sifert , bryan " @ enron [ mailto : imceanotes - + 22 sifert + 2 c + 20 bryan + 22 + 20 + 3 cbryan + 2 esifert + 40 csfb + 2 ecom + 3 e + 40 enron @ enron . com ] on behalf of " stein , neil "
sent : monday , june 11 , 2001 6 : 26 am
to : undisclosed - recipients : ; @ enron
subject : csfb independent power weekly - issue # 30
good morning ,
attached , please find the latest issue of our independent power weekly .
>
summary :
1 . ipps fall 6 . 9 % last week we saw continued lackluster performance from
the independent power producers . our composite fell 6 . 9 % , underperforming
both the nasdaq ( + 3 . 1 % ) and the s and , 2 .
soft spot power market conditions across much of the us .
3 . power markets recover on friday importantly , on friday ( 6 / 8 ) , most
regions across the us experienced a significant upturn in power pricing with
forecasts calling for hotter weather . trades for monday delivery , which
took place on friday , saw price increases of 10 - 25 % on average in the
eastern and central regions . in the western region , prices spiked up
40 - 50 % . should these price increases prove to be sustainable , we would
expect to see a meaningful improvement in investor sentiment .
4 . eix bankruptcy ? implications for the ipps recently there has been
increasing speculation that a chapter 11 bankruptcy filing by southern
california edison , the utility subsidiary of edison international , could be
imminent . we thought it would be timely to analyze the implications of an
sce bankruptcy for the ipps . our overall conclusion is that an sce
bankruptcy would be neutral for the sector . such an event would have no
impact on the earnings estimates or forecasted growth rates for any of the
companies under our coverage . in addition , none of the companies have any
direct receivables exposure to sce . finally , we believe reserves taken
against accounts receivable balances from the caliso and px across the
sector adequately mitigate exposure to potential bad debt writedowns .
5 . looking ahead : orn analyst meeting on tuesday ( 6 / 12 ) , orion power will
host its first major analyst meeting since its november 2000 ipo . beyond
giving a detailed review of the business , we expect management to discuss
the prospect of future acquisitions . recently , management has indicated
that it is evaluating a number of potential transactions located primarily
in the southeast . we also expect the company to provide a detailed
regulatory update on its key markets - pjm and ny . finally , we expect
management to reaffirm prior guidance for 2001 of $ 1 . 15 per share . while we
believe orn ' s exposure to the new york city market offers meaningful upside
potential , we believe the company will continue with its conservative stance
for the year . our 2001 and 2002 eps estimates for orn remain $ 1 . 20 and
1 . 60 . our target price is $ 38 .
regards ,
neil stein 212 / 325 - 4217
bryan sifert 212 / 325 - 3906
this message is for the named person ' s use only . it may contain
confidential , proprietary or legally privileged information . no
confidentiality or privilege is waived or lost by any mistransmission .
if you receive this message in error , please immediately delete it and all
copies of it from your system , destroy any hard copies of it and notify the
sender . you must not , directly or indirectly , use , disclose , distribute ,
print , or copy any part of this message if you are not the intended
recipient . credit suisse group and each of its subsidiaries each reserve
the right to monitor all e - mail communications through its networks . any
views expressed in this message are those of the individual sender , except
where the message states otherwise and the sender is authorised to state
them to be the views of any such entity .
unless otherwise stated , any pricing information given in this message is
indicative only , is subject to change and does not constitute an offer to
deal at any price quoted .
any reference to the terms of executed transactions should be treated as
preliminary only and subject to our formal written confirmation .
- ipwo 61101 . pdf
fw : csfb independent power weekly - issue # 30
- - - - - original message - - - - -
from : " sifert , bryan " @ enron [ mailto : imceanotes - + 22 sifert + 2 c + 20 bryan + 22 + 20 + 3 cbryan + 2 esifert + 40 csfb + 2 ecom + 3 e + 40 enron @ enron . com ] on behalf of " stein , neil "
sent : monday , june 11 , 2001 6 : 26 am
to : undisclosed - recipients : ; @ enron
subject : csfb independent power weekly - issue # 30
good morning ,
attached , please find the latest issue of our independent power weekly .
>
summary :
1 . ipps fall 6 . 9 % last week we saw continued lackluster performance from
the independent power producers . our composite fell 6 . 9 % , underperforming
both the nasdaq ( + 3 . 1 % ) and the s and , 2 .
soft spot power market conditions across much of the us .
3 . power markets recover on friday importantly , on friday ( 6 / 8 ) , most
regions across the us experienced a significant upturn in power pricing with
forecasts calling for hotter weather . trades for monday delivery , which
took place on friday , saw price increases of 10 - 25 % on average in the
eastern and central regions . in the western region , prices spiked up
40 - 50 % . should these price increases prove to be sustainable , we would
expect to see a meaningful improvement in investor sentiment .
4 . eix bankruptcy ? implications for the ipps recently there has been
increasing speculation that a chapter 11 bankruptcy filing by southern
california edison , the utility subsidiary of edison international , could be
imminent . we thought it would be timely to analyze the implications of an
sce bankruptcy for the ipps . our overall conclusion is that an sce
bankruptcy would be neutral for the sector . such an event would have no
impact on the earnings estimates or forecasted growth rates for any of the
companies under our coverage . in addition , none of the companies have any
direct receivables exposure to sce . finally , we believe reserves taken
against accounts receivable balances from the caliso and px across the
sector adequately mitigate exposure to potential bad debt writedowns .
5 . looking ahead : orn analyst meeting on tuesday ( 6 / 12 ) , orion power will
host its first major analyst meeting since its november 2000 ipo . beyond
giving a detailed review of the business , we expect management to discuss
the prospect of future acquisitions . recently , management has indicated
that it is evaluating a number of potential transactions located primarily
in the southeast . we also expect the company to provide a detailed
regulatory update on its key markets - pjm and ny . finally , we expect
management to reaffirm prior guidance for 2001 of $ 1 . 15 per share . while we
believe orn ' s exposure to the new york city market offers meaningful upside
potential , we believe the company will continue with its conservative stance
for the year . our 2001 and 2002 eps estimates for orn remain $ 1 . 20 and
1 . 60 . our target price is $ 38 .
regards ,
neil stein 212 / 325 - 4217
bryan sifert 212 / 325 - 3906
this message is for the named person ' s use only . it may contain
confidential , proprietary or legally privileged information . no
confidentiality or privilege is waived or lost by any mistransmission .
if you receive this message in error , please immediately delete it and all
copies of it from your system , destroy any hard copies of it and notify the
sender . you must not , directly or indirectly , use , disclose , distribute ,
print , or copy any part of this message if you are not the intended
recipient . credit suisse group and each of its subsidiaries each reserve
the right to monitor all e - mail communications through its networks . any
views expressed in this message are those of the individual sender , except
where the message states otherwise and the sender is authorised to state
them to be the views of any such entity .
unless otherwise stated , any pricing information given in this message is
indicative only , is subject to change and does not constitute an offer to
deal at any price quoted .
any reference to the terms of executed transactions should be treated as
preliminary only and subject to our formal written confirmation .
- ipwo 61101 . pdf