poten & partners forecasts fyi marg .
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - forwarded by margaret carson / corp / enron on 01 / 21 / 2000
07 : 31 am - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
doug leach @ ect
01 / 21 / 2000 07 : 00 am
to : guy dayvault / corp / enron @ enron
cc : margaret carson / corp / enron @ enron , rob bradley / corp / enron @ enron , jim
goughary / hou / ect @ ect , ted robinson / hou / ect @ ect , wade doshier / hou / ect @ ect ,
david j botchlett / hou / ect @ ect , john l nowlan / hou / ect @ ect
subject : poten & partners
fyi
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - forwarded by doug leach / hou / ect on 01 / 21 / 2000 06 : 58 am
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
doug leach
01 / 20 / 2000 03 : 47 pm
to : michael l brown / enron _ development @ enron _ development
cc : david a terlip / enron _ development @ enron _ development , kevin
beasley / lon / ect @ ect , john chismar / sin / ect @ ect , michel decnop / sin / ect @ ect ,
maurizio la noce / enron _ development @ enron _ development , marc de la
roche / hou / ect @ ect
subject : poten & partners
just some of george gail ' s observations :
he expects wti crude prices to return to a range of $ 19 - $ 22 / barrel by 2 q 2000
( brent $ 18 - $ 20 ) although emotions rather than fundamentals will continue to
drive the market .
saudi ' s sold cal 00 naphtha at $ 8 m / t over the platt ' s ag mean and the
kuwaiti ' s are offer their naphtha at $ 11 m / t over the mean .
enoc offered 700 , 000 tons of term naphtha and only sold 200 , 000 tons .
adnoc ' s splitters should add even more naphtha supplies to the market .
koch has closed their rotterdam splitter due to poor economics . not
necessarily a permanent shutdown .
he expects the brent / dubai spread to return to more normal $ 1 - $ 1 . 25 / barrel .
regarding condensate he predicts that actual demand will drive the market and
there will be less bottomfeeding by the japanese and other refiners . he does
feel the new splitters will reduce the worldwide volumes available ,
but that there will still be adequate supplies .
he thinks crack spreads for refiners will still be weak during cal 00 .
although some resid demand will be displaced by natural gas or lng , he
expects fairly stable differentials to crude .
he expects strong us gasoline demand , but limits his demand growth projection
to 1 % for the year .
poten & partners forecasts
fyi marg .
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - forwarded by margaret carson / corp / enron on 01 / 21 / 2000
07 : 31 am - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
doug leach @ ect
01 / 21 / 2000 07 : 00 am
to : guy dayvault / corp / enron @ enron
cc : margaret carson / corp / enron @ enron , rob bradley / corp / enron @ enron , jim
goughary / hou / ect @ ect , ted robinson / hou / ect @ ect , wade doshier / hou / ect @ ect ,
david j botchlett / hou / ect @ ect , john l nowlan / hou / ect @ ect
subject : poten & partners
fyi
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - forwarded by doug leach / hou / ect on 01 / 21 / 2000 06 : 58 am
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
doug leach
01 / 20 / 2000 03 : 47 pm
to : michael l brown / enron _ development @ enron _ development
cc : david a terlip / enron _ development @ enron _ development , kevin
beasley / lon / ect @ ect , john chismar / sin / ect @ ect , michel decnop / sin / ect @ ect ,
maurizio la noce / enron _ development @ enron _ development , marc de la
roche / hou / ect @ ect
subject : poten & partners
just some of george gail ' s observations :
he expects wti crude prices to return to a range of $ 19 - $ 22 / barrel by 2 q 2000
( brent $ 18 - $ 20 ) although emotions rather than fundamentals will continue to
drive the market .
saudi ' s sold cal 00 naphtha at $ 8 m / t over the platt ' s ag mean and the
kuwaiti ' s are offer their naphtha at $ 11 m / t over the mean .
enoc offered 700 , 000 tons of term naphtha and only sold 200 , 000 tons .
adnoc ' s splitters should add even more naphtha supplies to the market .
koch has closed their rotterdam splitter due to poor economics . not
necessarily a permanent shutdown .
he expects the brent / dubai spread to return to more normal $ 1 - $ 1 . 25 / barrel .
regarding condensate he predicts that actual demand will drive the market and
there will be less bottomfeeding by the japanese and other refiners . he does
feel the new splitters will reduce the worldwide volumes available ,
but that there will still be adequate supplies .
he thinks crack spreads for refiners will still be weak during cal 00 .
although some resid demand will be displaced by natural gas or lng , he
expects fairly stable differentials to crude .
he expects strong us gasoline demand , but limits his demand growth projection
to 1 % for the year .