fw : power generation : a regional analysis of supply and demandin the us power market
- - - - - original message - - - - -
from : stein , neil [ mailto : neil . stein @ csfb . com ]
sent : wednesday , september 05 , 2001 6 : 49 pm
to : undisclosed - recipients
subject : fw : power generation : a regional analysis of supply and
demandin the us power market
> >
>
good evening ,
> attached , please find an abridged version of our 76 - page report in which
> we provide our supply and demand outlook for 12 regions across the us .
>
> summary :
> 1 . the power markets are regional in nature the fragmented us
> transmission system results in significant regional power pricing and
> economic disparities . in order to fully understand this industry , macro
> analyses of the us market must be supplemented with an in - depth assessment
> of its individual regions .
> 2 . announced projects cannot be taken at face value out of the 285 , 487
> mw of project announcements we have identified , only 26 % are actually
> under construction . our base case analysis suggests that only 53 %
> ( 149 , 944 mw ) of the announced projects will be completed .
> 3 . shortages will persist in several key markets owing to a combination
> of current supply shortages , capacity retirements and demand growth , we
> estimate that the entire us will need 207 , 689 new mws by 2006 in order to
> achieve an equilibrium 18 % capacity margin . this requirement is 39 % above
> our base case buildout forecast . consequently , we project a 2006 capacity
> shortfall of 57 , 745 mw . our analysis indicates that supply shortages will
> be most pronounced in the mid - atlantic , new york , parts of the midwest ,
> and the southeast .
> 4 . positive implications for generators our findings have positive
> implications for selected generators . we believe that calpine ( cpn ,
> strong buy ) , entergy ( etr , buy ) , mirant ( mir , buy ) , nrg energy ( nrg , buy ) ,
> ppl corp . ( ppl , buy ) , and reliant resources ( rri , buy ) are best positioned
> within this market .
>
> regards ,
>
> neil stein 212 / 325 - 4217
this message is for the named person ' s use only . it may contain
confidential , proprietary or legally privileged information . no
confidentiality or privilege is waived or lost by any mistransmission .
if you receive this message in error , please immediately delete it and all
copies of it from your system , destroy any hard copies of it and notify the
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the right to monitor all e - mail communications through its networks . any
views expressed in this message are those of the individual sender , except
where the message states otherwise and the sender is authorised to state
them to be the views of any such entity .
unless otherwise stated , any pricing information given in this message is
indicative only , is subject to change and does not constitute an offer to
deal at any price quoted .
any reference to the terms of executed transactions should be treated as
preliminary only and subject to our formal written confirmation .
fw : power generation : a regional analysis of supply and demandin
the us power market
- - - - - original message - - - - -
from : stein , neil [ mailto : neil . stein @ csfb . com ]
sent : wednesday , september 05 , 2001 6 : 49 pm
to : undisclosed - recipients
subject : fw : power generation : a regional analysis of supply and
demandin the us power market
> >
>
good evening ,
> attached , please find an abridged version of our 76 - page report in which
> we provide our supply and demand outlook for 12 regions across the us .
>
> summary :
> 1 . the power markets are regional in nature the fragmented us
> transmission system results in significant regional power pricing and
> economic disparities . in order to fully understand this industry , macro
> analyses of the us market must be supplemented with an in - depth assessment
> of its individual regions .
> 2 . announced projects cannot be taken at face value out of the 285 , 487
> mw of project announcements we have identified , only 26 % are actually
> under construction . our base case analysis suggests that only 53 %
> ( 149 , 944 mw ) of the announced projects will be completed .
> 3 . shortages will persist in several key markets owing to a combination
> of current supply shortages , capacity retirements and demand growth , we
> estimate that the entire us will need 207 , 689 new mws by 2006 in order to
> achieve an equilibrium 18 % capacity margin . this requirement is 39 % above
> our base case buildout forecast . consequently , we project a 2006 capacity
> shortfall of 57 , 745 mw . our analysis indicates that supply shortages will
> be most pronounced in the mid - atlantic , new york , parts of the midwest ,
> and the southeast .
> 4 . positive implications for generators our findings have positive
> implications for selected generators . we believe that calpine ( cpn ,
> strong buy ) , entergy ( etr , buy ) , mirant ( mir , buy ) , nrg energy ( nrg , buy ) ,
> ppl corp . ( ppl , buy ) , and reliant resources ( rri , buy ) are best positioned
> within this market .
>
> regards ,
>
> neil stein 212 / 325 - 4217
this message is for the named person ' s use only . it may contain
confidential , proprietary or legally privileged information . no
confidentiality or privilege is waived or lost by any mistransmission .
if you receive this message in error , please immediately delete it and all
copies of it from your system , destroy any hard copies of it and notify the
sender . you must not , directly or indirectly , use , disclose , distribute ,
print , or copy any part of this message if you are not the intended
recipient . credit suisse group and each of its subsidiaries each reserve
the right to monitor all e - mail communications through its networks . any
views expressed in this message are those of the individual sender , except
where the message states otherwise and the sender is authorised to state
them to be the views of any such entity .
unless otherwise stated , any pricing information given in this message is
indicative only , is subject to change and does not constitute an offer to
deal at any price quoted .
any reference to the terms of executed transactions should be treated as
preliminary only and subject to our formal written confirmation .