$SPX is high (+7.3%) above its 50dma &amp; below its 200dma

Since '78, there have been 28 days like that: 5 in May '01 &amp; Nov '02. 23 in April-May '09

Fwd 20-day returns in '01 &amp; '02 were all negative

Fwd 20-day returns in '09 were all positive

Will 2020 be like '02 or '09?