John...let me say this respectfully, but honestly. You don't understand the technology or science.   There is NO retuning of models every 5-10 days.  The models do not change.  There is a new initialization every 6 hrs for the global model.   To answer your question...the question is not the past but he future.  There is uncertainty in the models (from cloud cover to many other issues), but that uncertainty is overwhelmed as time progresses by the exponentially growing radiative effects of growing greenhouse gases.  That is the key point.