I don't see it myself.

Washington have a well established track record as, mmmm, choke artists.  The Leafs seem to be playing about as unperturbed a game as can be played, with the exception of a bit of immaturity when it comes to retaliating against cheap shots (thinking about NK).  They're getting production from the third and fourth line guys, and even those hot rookies.  The Oilers fell apart; the Leafs haven't done anything of the kind to date.  And they've finally got a top flight goalie like they had the last time they did anything meaningful in the playoffs.  And if that weren't enough, the Capitals are really old and really slow and really under the gun to get something done right effin now.  I like the Leafs' chances to win it all or make it a good series if they don't.

Fermenting might be more like it.