Unless they split again, I doubt they will fall to third place or if the Liberals become a centre-right like the BC Liberals.  As long as they are the only party on the right, there is a good 25-30% who will vote for them no matter what.  But if they don't change they will be stuck around the 30% mark meaning they will follow what the Ontario PCs have seen the last 15 years or the BC NDP saw for 16 years, continuous opposition.