There's no way to tell how the conservative vote-splitting will play out in the future until the next election. 

There appear to be discontented conservatives. After all, Kenney only secured the vote of 35% of the supposedly united movement in your leadership election. There's supposed to be +100,000 members but the UCP hasn't confirmed the number. With a turnout of 58,232 votes out of a possible 100,000+, Kenney had 35,623.