You give the debates way more weight than they deserve.

Obama led Mittens and McCain consistently in fivethirtyeight's polling analysis in 2008 and 2012--just like Clinton is doing in this election cycle. That's a better predictor, than cherry picking a random poll result.

You are getting tripped up in your own spin. You say in one post, "at this point, no single poll counts a great deal," in one post, then you ballyhoo one outlier poll as "significant," in another.