Why would a reasonable person anchor the market in the debacle of 2009? It was the worst of the worst. Why not anchor it in late 2010 which was post toxic mortgages etc. From that perspective yes the market (US in particular) has run up some but not 3-5x. It is a long positive run however there is no real reason to expect a 40% drop tomorrow. More likely a 10-15% drop that wakes people up. Kinda what we need as the underpinnings of the present market are somewhat shaky.