In December the PBO estimated that there would be a $3.0B deficit for 2016-17 based on the Conservative spending plans; just three months later in April, before the Fort McMurray wild fires, the PBO forecast a $20.5B deficit taking account of the 2016 Liberal budget. So it seems that about $17.5B of the deficit now forecast is explained by Liberal stimulus and only about $5.5B by a deteriorating economy. Since Trudeau had pledged a deficit of less than $9.9B, even if one adjusts for the deterioration in the economy, he likely ran up a deficit that was 75% higher than he promised.