What is ignored in these discussions is the fact that most voters are wedded to a party, and never seriously consider switching. They only pay superficial attention to politics, and root for the "tribe" they were born into through their family and environment. "I'm a Liberal, always have been, always will be."

Elections are decided by a small number of wing voters. Some  actually do pay attention to issues, and are open-minded enough to actually consider voting for a different party each election. Others don't pay much attention to issues except the few particular ones that affect them directly. And some just "go with the flow" of whatever seems to be the way they perceive the wind to be blowing at voting time.

Last election was very close until the last minute, as the undecideds waited to see which way the wind was blowing this time, saw it was against Harper, then waited until Quebec made it clear the NDP orange wave was toast, to go Liberal.