Fair enough, but also realize that your underlying assumption is also rapidly changing.  The cost differential of the oilsands vs conventional sources is (and has been) disappearing quickly.\

One, the easy, "gusher" wells are becoming less productive, hence why we are looking to more non-conventional sources.  Two, new technologies in extraction are making it more efficient every year.  Last, along with materials and energy, labour is the other major cost in oilsands extraction.  Part of the reason it was so expensive were the absurd wages paid in Alberta during the boom - $100/hr for a truck driver, etc.

There are still people on this very board saying oilsands aren't profitable at $50, and they obviously know nothing.  Costs can be controlled, reduced, made more efficient.  With its head start, it may be one of the cheaper extraction options within the timeframes you're talking.