Throw in a couple of coups, religious fanaticism, more terrorism and few wars and other negative uncertainties and anything can/will happen. Point I was simply trying to make was the price of $73 that the state doesn't expect to see for 10 years is with 50% certainty, wildly optimistic or pessimistic, depending on what side of the trade equation one has a position. Probably see that price in 2 to 3 years, not 10.

http://www.theweek.co.uk/oil-price/60838/oil-price-rises-again-as-investor-confidence-grows