So you voting for the anti-vaxx sympathizer or the wannabe world leader from the party of Joe Miller who can't name a world leader he admires? 

And this election, and all elections, are not about what people "think" chances of winning are, it matters what the are, scientifically, based on historic voting data and scientifically sound polling methodology. That's why the night before the election in 2012, Romney thought he would win and Obama knew he would win. 

That's why right now Clinton knows she will win and Trump thinks he will win. One side has "math" and the other side has bluster. 

I would've strongly considered a protest vote if either of the 3rd party options hadn't been such ringing disappointments.