Carrick likes to put numbers behind his pronouncements which may or may not help readers understand the implications of things he talks about.  However, it is speculative to think about where rates will be a year from now. There are just too many moving parts. 

If there is anything to draw from Carrick's analysis it is that one should start setting aside money now for the transition. The long term trend seems to be up. Anyone with a mortgage should think not in terms of a half percentage rise in one year but a three or four percent rise over five years.