The price to produce the stuff is just below 50 bucks. Anything outside this range is speculation. OPEC can cut, but the moment WTI goes above 50 bucks, the drilling rigs roll out in the States making up for it. 

Gas prices are doing the same thing. 12 cent surge, followed by 2 weeks of decline back down to low-90s, then surge 12 cents. Lather, rinse, repeat. Been doing that every three weeks for two years now.