OK, that's a clearer question. Here are two recent open-access papers that may be helpful (you may find the pdf versions more readable)

Lin & Huybers (2016), Revisiting Whether Recent Surface Temperature Trends Agree with the CMIP5 Ensemble, Journal of Climate
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0123.1

Hawkins & Sutton (2016) Connecting Climate Model Projections of Global Temperature Change with the Real World, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00154.1