The political class and the " experts" who write about it have no idea what they are talking about. They are constantly wrong. Trump had an approval rating of 35.6% on November 7th, 2016, the day before the election.  That was it. He won 30 states. He was supposed to lose Michigan and Wisconsin by 10 points, Pennsylvania by 3-5, Virgina by 8, win Ohio by 5, Iowa by 5 and narrowly lose Florida. he won Michigan, he won Wisconsin, He won Penn, he only narrowly lost Virginia, he won Ohio and Iowa by 10 and he won Florida narrowly.