Strategically, Chong as leader would be interesting.  There are around 100 ridings from north of GTA to just east of Metro Van that are likely opposed to the carbon tax, on balance.  Would they come around given the corresponding income tax cut Chong is proposing, or would the carbon tax plus the concessions on their social conservatives issues be too much (as Chong is very progressive)?  Would that eventually lead to a split of the right with the creation of Reform Party 2.0?

I think Raitt has been very strong during debates, and could appease both the west (lower taxes and including no carbon tax), and the east (e.g. suburban swing ridings and maybe even the Maritimes where she is from).  She's currently middle of the pack in the leadership race, but if she ever pulled it off in May, then I'd bet on her in 2019.