I'll say it here first. Doug Ford has zero chance of ever winning a mayoralty race in Toronto. If his brother Rob hadn't been so disastrous as a part time mayor and then all the drama that followed, I'd give Doug a 50% chance. But Doug has a dubious character and is just plain mean. 
It's easy to say he'll save taxes. That's worth a few votes. But Rob's legacy and Doug's mean demeanour don't resonate with most Toronto voters.