Aren't we overlooking the bigger issue, i.e. the price of oil??  Oil from the Tar Sands is considered the most costly and "dirty" oil on the market.  If oil trades at free market value, based on supply and demand, then  oil from the Tar Sands will not be competitive!   My guess is that OPEC will continue to control supply and price to insure that oil from the Tar Sands does not become competitive!