So, despite all these prognoses of inevitable failure Shell still want to drill and test to see if there is anything there.  There are two possible explanations for this: 1) they are idiots or 2) they are one of the best oil companies in the world.

In reality until you test something it remains an untested hypothesis.  If Deal and all the others are so sure it will all end in failure then why the opposition to a few test holes?  Could it be they don't really believe all the negative studies?