Is it, though? Even your forecast is only0.5mbpd/yr, vs the 1.2 or 1.5 or so it grew in the 90s and early 00s, or the 1.0mbpd/y in the last ten years (  That indicates a significant flattening out of growth, indicating a plateau is imminent. 

The problem arises when you forecast status quo, which might say 110-115 mpbd by 2025, vs reality (likely the 100mpbd), meaning that about 10mbpd of capacity is put out of business. Unfortunately for Canada, our pricey oil sands are likely in that bracket.