Am I making this too simple? The most wins that either Milwaukee or St Louis can get is 94. So the Rockies magic number should be twenty. Twenty wins puts them at 95 total, more than either of the other two teams can get. Combine Rockies wins with losses by whichever of those two teams gets ahead of the other and that's the key for the Rockies. We know that the Brewers and Cards play one more series head to head but worse case for the Rockies is for one of those two teams to win out.