So- we can tell we are approaching the natural rate of interest according to current economic theory- and it is theory not law- when we have a new recession every 5-6 years? I have read more than a few times that every recession in the last 80-90 years was caused by deliberate interest rate increases. But hey- we know the Natural Rate is what?- 5-10% and we are lucky now because we have actually come a long way from when they were held too high and we had an out and out depression every 10 - 20 years or so.  

Maybe we should also address another part of the problem: usury. eg. credit cards charge rates in excess of 20- 30%. Behavioural economics now resoundingly points out what is going on in that regard, i.e. human nature being what it is, despite the incantations of those much wiser who advocate living below ones means. That is easy when luck is on your side, but not so much for many others who just can't get there. Me right now - I'm lucky, but life is "change" so...