AFN is in control of the outcome here.  Whichever candidate they support will bring home the Native vote.  My guess is that Murkowski can't count on their endorsement this time around.   After all, it was Al Kookesh and AFN that threw rural Alaska's greatest benefactor Senator Stevens under the bus in 2008 by supporting Begich.   They could back Stock and it will be AFN- not Joe Miller syphoning off republican votes- that brings Lisa down.