Outside of the "fluke" period of the middle/late 90's, when were returns on stocks consistently in the teens? We're talking almost two decades and a pair of crashes ago. Sure, stocks have recovered but "expected returns" are low now. Only now are they realizing the old paradigm is busted? Also, investment returns are estimated in nominal dollars, but benefits are paid out in real(inflation adjusted) a big disconnect IMO. Oregon isnt' alone, the problem is nationwide.

The PERs portfolio is another issue. Invested primarily in stocks(70%+), it's a big crapshoot. Sure, things are rosy when the markets on a tear, but hit an extended period of muted returns or crashes and your in trouble. 

If PERs were a healthy system, we wouldn't be having this discussion. As for Sickinger having a giant axe to grind, it isn't just his axe(see article in link). You want to keep your head in the sand, that's your choice.


https://www.oregonoutpost.com/pers-rates-increase-cost/