Konstantin Batygin: Planet 9 and the Edge of Our Solar System | Lex Fridman Podcast #201
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Konstantin Batygin is a planetary astrophysicist at Caltech. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors:
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EPISODE LINKS:
Konstantin's Twitter https://twitter.com/kbatygin
Konstantin's Website https://www.konstantinbatygin.com/

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OUTLINE:
0:00 - Introduction
1:18 - Overview of our Solar System
16:16 - What is the Oort Cloud?
21:11 - Life in the interstellar medium
22:44 - Are there aliens out there?
25:23 - How unique is Earth?
28:04 - Did Jupiter destroy early planets?
34:18 - How hard is it to simulate the Universe?
38:50 - Quantum mechanics in evolution of objects in the Solar system
43:17 - Simulating the first formations around the Sun
49:04 - Will it be possible to simulate the full history of the Solar System?
51:24 - How far should we go with the simulation?
53:45 - Increasing immersion in video games
1:00:10 - What is Planet Nine?
1:06:39 - The origin of life
1:09:03 - Evidence of Planet Nine
1:11:33 - Discovery of Neptune
1:12:43 - When will we find Planet Nine?
1:15:22 - Planet Nine throws rocks into the Kuiper Belt
1:19:17 - Could Planet Nine be a primordial black hole?
1:29:21 - Commercial space revolution boosts science and the human condition
1:36:48 - Solving sex in space
1:37:26 - Would humans evolve if we couldn't see the stars?
1:43:09 - Military funding and science
1:47:13 - Is Oumuamua space junk from a distant alien civilization?
2:00:35 - Wild ideas create the future
2:08:24 - The perfect place to die
2:10:05 - Greatest song of all time
2:16:35 - Music enables science for Konstantin
2:18:53 - Music practice tips for busy people
2:22:43 - Memories of 1990s Russia
2:29:15 - Advice for young people
2:35:11 - Meaning of life

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 The following is a conversation with Kostantin Batygin, planetary astrophysicist at Caltech, interested in, among other things, the search for the distant, the mysterious Planet Nine, in the outer regions of our solar system. Quick mention of our sponsors, Squarespace, Litterati, Onnit, and NI. Check them out in the description to support this podcast. As a side note, let me say that our little sun is orbited by not just a few planets in the planetary region, but trillions of objects in the Kuiper Belt and the Oort Cloud that extends over three light years out. This to me is amazing, since Proxima Centauri, the closest star to our sun, is only 4.2 light years away. And all of it is mostly covered in darkness. When I get a chance to go out swimming in the ocean far from the shore, I'm sometimes overcome by the terrifying and the exciting feeling of not knowing what's there in the deep darkness. That's how I feel about the edge of our solar system. One day, I hope humans will travel there. Or at the very least, AI systems that carry the flame of human consciousness. This is the Lux Freebin Podcast, and here's my conversation with Kostantin Batygin. What is Planet Nine? Planet Nine is an object that we believe lives in the solar system beyond the orbit of Neptune. It orbits the sun with a period of about 10,000 years and is about five Earth masses. So that's a hypothesized object. There's some evidence for this kind of object. There's a bunch of different explanations. Can you give like an overview of the planets and how they the planets in our solar system, how many are there? What do we know and not know about them at a high level? All right. That sounds like a good plan. So look, the solar system basically is comprised of two parts, the inner and the outer solar system. The inner solar system has the planets Mercury, Venus, Earth, and Mars. Now Mercury is about 40% of the orbital separation of where the Earth is. It's closer to the sun. Venus is about 70%. Then Mars is about 160% further away from the sun than is the Earth. These planets that we, one of them we occupy, right, are pretty small. They're two leading order sort of heavily overgrown asteroids, if you will. Okay. This becomes evident when you move out further in the solar system and encounter Jupiter, which is 316 Earth masses, right, 10 times the size. Saturn is another huge one. 90 Earth masses at about 10 times the separation from the sun as is the Earth. Then you have Uranus and Neptune at 20 and 30 respectively. For a long time, that is where the kind of massive part of the solar system ended. But what we've learned in the last 30 years is that beyond Neptune, there's this expansive field of icy debris, a second icy asteroid belt in the solar system. A lot of people have heard of the asteroid belt, which lives between Mars and Jupiter, right? That's a pretty common thing that people like to imagine and draw on lunch boxes and stuff. But beyond Neptune, there's a much more massive and much more radially expansive field of debris. Pluto, by the way, it belongs to that second icy asteroid belt, which we call the Kuiper belt. It's just a big object within that population of bodies. Pluto, the planet. Pluto, the dwarf planet, the former planet. Why is Pluto not a planet anymore? I mean, it's tiny. We used to- The size matters when it comes to planets. Oh, 100%. It's actually a fascinating story. When Pluto was discovered in 1930, the reason it was discovered in the first place is because astronomers at the time were looking for a seven Earth mass planet somewhere beyond Neptune. It was hypothesized that such an object exists. When they found something, they interpreted that as a seven Earth mass planet and immediately revised its mass downward because they couldn't resolve the object with the telescope. So it looked like just a point mass star rather than a physical disk. They said, well, maybe it's not seven, maybe it's one. Then over the next, I guess, 40 years, Pluto's mass kept getting revised downwards, downwards, downwards until it was realized that it's like 500 times less massive than the Earth. I mean, Pluto's surface area is almost perfectly equal to the surface area of Russia, actually. Russia is big, but it's not a planet. Well, I mean, actually we can touch more on that. That's another discussion. So in some sense, earlier in the century, Pluto represented our ignorance about the edges of the solar system. And perhaps Planet Nine is the thing that represents our ignorance about now the modern set of ignorances about the edges of our solar system. That's a good way to put it. By the way, just imagining this belt of astro of debris at the edge of our solar system is incredible. Can you talk about it a little bit? What is the Kuiper belt and what is the Oort cloud? Yeah. Okay. So look, the simple way to think about it is that if you imagine, you know, Neptune's orbit like a circle, right? Kind of maybe a factor of one and a half, 1.3 times bigger on a radius of 1.3 times bigger, you've got a whole collection of icy objects. Most of these objects are sort of the size of Austin, you know, maybe a little bit smaller. If you then zoom out, right, and explore the orbits of the most long period Kuiper belt object, these are the things that have the biggest orbits and take the longest time to go around the sun. Then what you find is that beyond a critical orbit size, beyond a critical orbit period, which is about 4,000 years, you start to see weird structure, like all the orbits sort of point into one direction. And all the orbits are kind of tilted in the same way by about 20 degrees with respect to sun. This is particularly pronounced in orbits that are not heavily affected by Neptune. So there you start to see this weird dichotomy where there are objects which are stable, which Neptune does not mess with, gravitationally, and unstable objects. The unstable objects are basically all over the place because they're being kicked around by Neptune. The stable orbits show this remarkable pattern of clustering. We, back I guess five years ago, interpreted this pattern of clustering as a gravitational one-way sign, the existence of a planet in a distant planet, right, something that is shepherding and confining these orbits together. Of course, right, you have to have some skepticism when you're talking about these things. You have to ask the question of, okay, how statistically significant is this clustering? And there are many authors that have indeed called that into question. We have done our own analyses. And basically, just like with all statistics where there's kind of multiple ways to do the exercise, you can either ask the question of, if I have a telescope that has surveyed this part of the sky, what are the chances that I would discover this clustering? That basically tells you that you have zero confidence, right? That does not give you a confident answer one way or another. Another way to do the statistics, which is what we prefer to do, is to say, we have a whole night sky of discoveries in the Kuiper belt, right? And if we have some object over there, which has right ascension and declination, which is a way to say it's there on the sky, and it has some brightness, that means somebody looked over there and discovered an object of, was able to discover an object of that brightness or brighter. Through that analysis, you can construct a whole map on the sky of kind of where all of the surveys that have ever been done have collectively looked. So if you do the exercise this way, the false alarm probability of the clustering on which the Planet Nine hypothesis is built is about 0.4%. Wow. Okay. So there's a million questions here. One, when you say bright objects, why are they bright? Are we talking about actual objects within the Kuiper belt or the stuff we see through the Kuiper belt? This is the actual stuff we see in the Kuiper belt. The way you go about discovering Kuiper belt objects, pretty easy. I mean, it's easy in theory, right? Hard in practice. All you do is you take snapshots of the sky, right? Choose that object, and you can do that. Snapshots of the sky, right? Choose that direction and take the high exposure snapshot. Then you wait a night and you do it again, and then you wait another night and you do it again. Objects that are just random stars in the galaxy don't move on the sky, whereas objects in the solar system will slowly move. This is no different than if you're driving down the freeway, it looks like trees are going by you faster than the clouds, right? This is parallax. That's it. It's just they're reflecting light off of the sun, and it's going back and hitting this. There's a little bit of a glimmer from the different objects that you can see based on the reflection from the sun. So there's actual light, it's not darkness. That's right. These are just big icicles basically that are just reflecting sunlight back at you. It's then easy to understand why it's so hard to discover them because light has to travel to something like 40 times the distance between the earth and the sun and then get reflected back. Was that like an hour travel? Yeah, that's right. That's something like that because the earth to the sun is eight minutes, I believe. And so something, you know, hours. Yeah, in that order of magnitude. So that's interesting. So you have to account for all of that. And then there's a huge amount of data, pixels that are coming from the pictures. And you have to integrate all of that together to paint a sort of like a high estimate of the different objects. Can you track them? Can you be like, that's Bob? Like, can you like? Yes, exactly. In fact, one of them is named Joe Biden. I mean, I'm not like this is not even a joke. Is there a Trump one or no? No, no. I don't know. I haven't seen that one. I haven't checked for that. But like, the way it works is if you discover one, you right away get a license plate for it. OK, so like the first four numbers is the first year that this object has appeared on, you know, in the data set, if you will. And then there's like this code that follows it, which basically tells you where in the sky it is. Right. So one of the really interesting Kuiper Belt objects, which is very much part of the Planet Nine stories called VP 113, because Joe Biden was vice president at the time, you know, got nicknamed Biden. VP 113, you said? Yeah. He got nicknamed Biden. Beautiful. What's the fingerprint for any particular object? Like, how do you know it's the same one? Or you just kind of like, yeah, from night to night, you take a picture. How do you know it's the same object? Yeah. So the way you know is it appears in almost exactly the same part of the sky except for moves. But this is why actually you need at least three nights, because oftentimes asteroids, which are much closer to the Earth, like will appear to move only slightly, but then on the third night will move away. So that third night is really there to detect acceleration. Now, the thing that I didn't really realize until, you know, I started observing together with my partner in crime in all this, Mike Brown, is just the fact that for the first year when you make these detections, the only thing you really know with confidence is where it is on the night sky and how far away it is. Okay? That's it. You don't know anything about the orbit because over three days, the object just moves so little, right? That whole motion on the sky is entirely coming from motion of the Earth, right? So the Earth is kind of the car, the object is the tree and you see it move. So then to get some confident information about what its orbit looks like, you have to come back a year later and then measure it again. Oh, interesting. So do three nights, then come back a year later and do another three nights. So you get the velocity, the acceleration from the three nights and then you have the, maybe the additional formation. Because an orbit is basically described by six parameters. So you at least need six independent points, but in reality, you need many more observations to really pin down the orbit well. And from that, you're able to construct for that one particular object and orbit. And then there's of course, like how many objects are there? There's like four-ish thousand now. But like the, in the future, that could be like millions. Oh, sure. Oh, sure. So in fact, these things are hard to predict, but there's a new observatory called the Vera Rubin Observatory, which is coming online, maybe next year. I mean, with COVID, these things are a little bit more uncertain, but they've actually been making great progress with construction. And so that telescope is just going to sort of scan the night sky every day automatically. And it's such an efficient survey that it might increase the census of the distant Kuiper belt, the things that I'm interested in, by a factor of a hundred. I mean, that would be really cool. And yeah, that's an incredible- I mean, they might just find planet nine. Like almost like literally pictures, like visually. I mean, sure. Yeah. Like the first detection you make, all you know is where it is in the sky and how far away it is. If something is 500 times away from the sun, as far away from the sun as the earth, you know that's planet nine. That's when the story concludes. Then you can study it. Now you can study it. Yeah. By the way, I'm going to use that as like, I don't know, a pickup line or a dating strategy, like see the person for three days and then don't see them at all. And then see them again in a year to determine the orbit. And over time you figure out if sort of from a cosmic perspective, this whole thing, Yeah. I have no dating advice to give. I was going to use this as a metaphor to somehow map it onto the human condition. Okay. You mentioned the Kuiper belt. What's the Oort cloud? If you look at the Neptune orbit as one, then the Kuiper belt is like 1.3 out there. And then we get farther and farther into the darkness. What's the Oort cloud? So, okay. You've got the main Kuiper belt, which is about say 1.3. 1.5. Then you have something called the scattered disc, which is kind of an extension of the Kuiper belt. It's a bunch of these long, very elliptical orbits that hug the orbit of Neptune, but come out very far. So that, the scattered disc with the current senses, like some of the longest orbits we know of have a semi-major axis. So half the orbit length, roughly speaking, of about a thousand, thousand times the distance between the earth and the sun. Wow. Now, if you keep moving out, okay, eventually once you're at sort of, you know, 10,000 to 100,000 roughly, that's where the Oort cloud is. Now, the Oort cloud is a distinct population of icy bodies and it's distinct from the Kuiper belt. In fact, it's so expansive that it ends roughly halfway between us and the next star. Its edge is just dictated by to what extent does the solar gravity reach? Solar gravity reaches that far? Yeah. So it has to, wow. Yeah. In fact, imagining this is a little bit overwhelming. So there's like a giant, like vast icy rock thingy. It's like a sphere. It's like, you know, it's like it's almost spherical structure that engulfs, that encircles the sun and all the long pieces of the sun and all the long period comets come from the Oort cloud. They come the way that they appear. I mean, for already, I don't know, hundreds of years, we've been detecting occasionally like a comet will come in and it seemingly comes out of nowhere. The reason these long period comets appear that on very, very long time scales, right? These Oort cloud objects that are sitting, you know, 30,000 times as far away from the sun as is the earth actually interact with the gravity of the galaxy, the tide, effectively the tide that the galaxy exerts upon them and their orbits slowly change and they elongate to the point where once they, their closest approach to the sun starts to reach a critical distance where ice starts to sublimate, then we discover them as comets, because then the ice comes off of them. They look beautiful on the night sky, et cetera, but they're all coming from, you know, really, really far away. So is there, are any of them coming our way from collisions? Like how many collisions are there? Or is there a bunch of space for them to move around? Yeah, there's zero. It's completely collisionless. Out there, the physical radii of objects are so small compared to the distance between them, right? It's just, it is truly a collisionless environment. I don't know. I think that probably in the age of the solar system, there have literally been zero collisions in the Oort cloud. Wow. When you like draw a picture of the solar system, everything's really close together. So everything, I guess, here's spaced far apart. Do rogue planets like flying every once in a while and join? Not rogue planets, but rogue objects from out there. Oh, sure. Oh, sure. Yeah. Join the party? Yeah, absolutely. We've seen a couple of them in the last three or so years, maybe four years now. The first one was the one called O'omu'omua. It's been all over the news. The second one was comet Borisov discovered by a guy named Borisov. Yeah, so the way you know they're coming from elsewhere is unlike solar system objects, which travel on elliptical paths around the sun, these guys travel on hyperbolic paths. So they come in, say hello, and then they're gone. And the fact that they exist is totally not surprising. Neptune is constantly ejecting Kuiper belt objects into interstellar space. Our solar system itself is sort of leaking icy debris and ejecting it. So presumably planetary systems around other stars do exactly the same thing. Let me ask you about the millions of objects that are part of the Kuiper belt and part of the Oro cloud. Do you think some of them have primitive life? It kind of makes you sad if there's like primitive life there and they're just kind of like lonely out there in space. Like how many of them do you think have life, like bacterial life? Probably a negligible amount. Zero, you know, like zero with like a plus on top. Zero plus plus. Yeah. So, you know, if you and I took a little trip to the interstellar medium, I think we would develop cancer and die real fast, right? That's rough. Yeah. It's a pretty hostile radiation environment. You don't actually have to go to the interstellar medium. You just have to leave the earth's magnetic field too. And then you're not doing so well suddenly. So, you know, this idea of, you know, life kind of traveling between places, it's not entirely implausible, but you really have to twist, I think, a lot of parameters. One of the problems we have is we don't actually know how life originates, right? So it's kind of a second order question of survival in the interstellar medium and how resilient it is, because we think you require water, and that's certainly the case for the earth, but, you know, we really don't know for sure. That said, I will argue that the question of like, are there aliens out there is a very boring question, because the answer is of course there are. Right. I mean, like, we know that there are planets around almost every star. Of course there are other life forms. Life is not some specific thing that happened on the earth, and that's it, right? That's a statistical impossibility. Yeah, but the difficult question is, before even the fact that we don't know how life originates, I don't think we even know what life is, like, definitionally. Yeah. Like, formalizing a kind of picture of, in terms of the mechanism we would use to search for life out there, or even when we're on a planet, to say, is this life? Is this rock that just moved from where it was yesterday life? Or maybe not even a rock, something else. I got to tell you, I want to know what life is. Okay. And I want you to show me. I think there's a song to basically accompany every single thing we talk about today, and probably half of them are love songs. And somehow we'll integrate George Michael into the whole thing. Okay. So your intuition is there's life everywhere in our universe. Do you think there's intelligent life out there? I think it's entirely plausible. I mean, it's entirely plausible. I think there's intelligent life on earth. So yeah, taking that, like say, whatever this thing we've got on earth, whether it's dolphins or humans, say that's intelligent. Definitely dolphins. I mean, have you seen the dolphins? Well, they do some cruel stuff to each other. So if cruelty is a definition of intelligence, they're pretty good. And then humans are pretty good in that regard. And then there's like, pigs are very intelligent. I got actually a chance to hang out with pigs recently. And they're, aside from the fact they were trying to eat me, they're very, they love food. They love food, but there's an intelligence to their eyes that was kind of like haunts me because I also love to eat meat. And then to meet the thing I later ate, and that was very intelligent and almost charismatic with the way it was expressing himself, herself itself, was quite incredible. So all that to say is if we have intelligent life here on earth, if we take dolphins, pigs, humans, from the perspective of like planetary science, how unique is earth? Okay. So earth is not a common outcome of the planet formation process. It's probably something on the order of maybe a 1% effect. And by earth, I mean, it's not just an earth mass planet. Okay. I mean, the architecture of the solar system that allows the earth to exist in its kind of very temperate way. One thing to understand, and this is pretty crucial, right? Is that the earth itself formed well after the gas disk that formed the giant planets had already dissipated. You see, stars start out with the star and then a disk of gas and dust that encircles it. Okay. From this disk of gas and dust, big planets can emerge. And we have over the last two, three decades discovered thousands of extra solar planets as an orbit of other stars. What we see is that many of them are, have these expansive hydrogen helium atmospheres. The fact that the earth doesn't is deeply connected to the fact that earth took about a hundred million years to form. So we missed that train, so to speak, to get that hydrogen helium atmosphere. That's why actually we can see the sky, right? That's why the sky is, well, at least in most places, that's why the atmosphere is not completely opaque. With that kind of thinking in mind, I would argue that we're getting the kind of emergent pictures of the earth is not everywhere, right? There's sort of the sci-fi view of things where we go to some other star and we just land on random planets and they're all earth-like. That's totally not true. But even a low probability event, even if you imagine that earth is a one in a million or one in a, you know, one in 10 million occurrence, there are 10 to the 12 stars in the galaxy, right? So you just, you always win by, by- Large numbers. That's right, by supply. They save you. Well, you've hypothesized that our solar system once possessed a population of short period planets that were destroyed by the evil Jupiter, migrating through the solar nebula. Can you explain? If I was to say, what was the kind of the key outcome of searches for extra solar planets? It is that most stars are encircled by short period planets that are, you know, a few earth masses, right? So a few times bigger than the earth and have orbital periods that kind of range from days to, to weeks. Now, if you go and ask the solar system, what's in our region, right? In that region, it's completely empty, right? It's just, it's astonishingly hollow. And I think, you know, from the sun is not some, you know, special star that decided that it was going to form the solar system. So I think, you know, the natural thing to assume is, is that the same processes of planet formation that occurred everywhere else also occurred in the solar system. Following this logic, it's not implausible to imagine that the solar system once possessed a system of intra-Mercurian, like, you know, compact system of, of planets. So then we asked ourselves, would such a system survive to this day? And the answer is no, at least our calculations suggest it's highly unlikely because of the formation of Jupiter. And Jupiter's primordial kind of wandering through the solar system would have sent this collisional field of debris that would have pushed that system of planets onto the sun. So was Jupiter, this primordial wandering, what did, what did Jupiter look like? Like, why was it wandering? It didn't have the orbit it has today? We're pretty certain that giant planets like Jupiter, when they form, they migrate. The reason they migrate is, you know, on a detailed level, perhaps difficult to explain, but just in a qualitative sense, they form in this fluid disk of gas and dust. So it's kind of like, if I plop down a raft somewhere in the ocean, will it stay where you plop it down, or will it kind of get carried around? It's not really a good analogy because it's not like Jupiter is being advected by the currents of, you know, gas and dust, but the way it migrates is it carves out a hole in the disk and then through, by interacting with the disk gravitationally, right, it can change its orbit. The fact that the solar system has both Jupiter and Saturn here complicates things a lot, right, because it's, you have to solve the problem of the evolution of the gas disk, the evolution of Jupiter's orbit in the gas disk, plus the evolution of Saturn's and their mutual interaction. The common outcome of solving that problem, though, is pretty easy to explain. Jupiter forms, its orbit shrinks, and then once Saturn forms, its orbit catches up, basically, to the orbit of Jupiter and then both come out. So there's this inward-outward pattern of Jupiter's early motion that happens sort of within the firm, within the last million years of the lifetime of the solar system's primordial disk. So while this is happening, if our calculations are correct, which I think they are, you can destroy this inner system of, you know, few Earth-mass planets. And then in the aftermath of all this violence, you form the terrestrial planets. Where would they come from in that case? So Jupiter clears out the space, and then there's a few terrestrial planets that come in, and those come in from the disk somewhere, like one of the larger objects. Yeah, what actually happens in these calculations is you leave behind a rather mass-depleted, like, remnant disk, only a couple Earth masses. So then from that remnant disk, you leave behind a remnant population, an annulus of material over 100 million years by just collisions. You grow the Earth and the Moon and everything else. You said annulus? Annulus. Annulus. Annulus, yeah. That's a beautiful word. What does that mean? Well, it's like a disk that's kind of thin. It's like a, yeah, it's something that is, you know, a disk that's so thin, it's almost like, I was going to say this reminds me of Lord of the Rings. So like, the word just feels like it belongs in a token. Okay, so that's incredible. And so that, in your senses, you said like 1%, that's a rare, the way Jupiter and Saturn danced and cleared out, you know, cleared out the short period of debris and then changed the gravitational landscape, that's a pretty rare thing too. It's rare and moreover, like, you don't even have to go to our calculations, you can just ask the night sky how many stars have Jupiter and Saturn analogues? And the answer is Jupiter and Saturn analogues are found around only 10% of Sun-like stars. So they themselves, like you kind of have to score an A minus or better on the test to, you know, on the planet formation test to become a solar system analog, even in that basic sense. And moreover, you know, lower mass stars, which are very numerous in the galaxy, so-called M dwarfs, think like 0% of them, well, maybe like a negligible fraction of them have giant planets. Giant planets are a rare, you know, outcome of planet formation. One of the really big problems that remain unanswered is why? We don't actually understand why they're so rare. How hard is it to simulate all of the things that we've been talking about, each of the things we've been talking about, and maybe one day all of the things we've been talking about and beyond, meaning like from the initial primordial solar system, you know, a bunch of disks with, I don't know, billions, trillions of objects in them, like simulate that such that you eventually get a Jupiter and a Saturn, and then eventually you get the Jupiter and the Saturn that clear out a disk, change the gravitational landscape, then Earth pops up, like that whole thing, and then be able to do that for every other system in the, every other star in the galaxy, and then be able to do that for other galaxies as well. Yeah, so maybe start from the smallest simulation, like what is actually being done today? I mean, even the smallest simulation is probably super, super difficult. Even just like one object in the Kuiper Belt is probably super difficult to simulate. I mean, I think it's super easy. I mean, like, it's just not that hard. But, you know, let's ask the most kind of basic problem. Okay, so the problem of having a star and something in orbit of it, that you don't need a simulation for, like you can just write that down on a piece of paper. Does gravity, what, like, yeah, I guess, I guess it's important to try to, you know, one way to simulate objects in our solar system is to build the universe from scratch. Okay, we'll get to building the universe from scratch in a sec, but let me just kind of go through the hierarchy of what, you know, what we do. Two objects, analytically solvable, like, we can figure it out very easily if you just, you know, I don't think you, yeah, you don't need to know calculus. It helps to know calculus, but you don't necessarily need to know calculus. Three objects that are gravitationally interacting, the solution is chaotic. Doesn't matter how many simulations you do, you, the answer loses meaning after some time. I feel like that is a metaphor for dating as well, but go on. Yeah, so the fact that you go from analytically solvable to unpredictable, you know, when you're, when your simulation goes from two bodies to three bodies should immediately tell you that the exercise of trying to engineer a calculation where you form the entire solar system from scratch and hope to have some predictive answer is a futile one, right? We will never succeed at such a simulation. So like, just to clarify, you mean like explicitly having a clear equation that generalizes the whole process enough to be able to make a prediction, or do you mean actually like literally simulating the objects is a hopeless pursuit once it increases beyond three? The simulating them is not a hopeless pursuit, but the outcome becomes a statistical one. What's actually quite interesting is I think we have all the equations figured out, right? Like, you know, in order to really understand this, the formation of the solar system suffices to know gravity and magneto hydrodynamics. I mean, like the combination of Maxwell's equations and, you know, Navier-Stokes equations for the fluids. You need to know quantum mechanics to understand the opacities and so on. But we have those equations in hand. It's not that we don't have that understanding. It's that putting it all together is A, very, very difficult, and B, if you were to run the same evolution twice, changing, you know, the initial conditions by some infinitesimal amount, some, you know, minor change in your calculation to start with, you would get a different answer. This is one, this is part of the reason why planetary systems are so diverse. You don't have like a, you know, very predictive path for you start with a disc of this mass and it's around this star. Therefore, you're going to form the solar system, right? You start with this and therefore you will form this huge outcome, huge set of outcomes and some percentage of it will resemble the solar system. You mentioned quantum mechanics and we're talking about cosmic scale objects. You've talked about that the evolution of astrophysical disks can be modeled with Schrodinger's equation. I sure did. Why? Like how does quantum mechanics become relevant at when you consider the evolution of objects in the solar system? Yeah, well, let me take a step back and just say it like, I remember being, you know, utterly confused by quantum mechanics when I first learned it. And the Schrodinger equation, which is kind of the parent equation of that whole field, you know, seems to come out of nowhere, right? The way that I was sort of explaining it, I remember asking, you know, my professor is like, but where does it come from? Is it like, well, just like, don't worry about it and just like calculate the hydrogen, you know, energy levels, right? So it's like, I could do all the problems. I just did not have any intuition for where this parent, you know, super important equation came from. Now down the line, I was, remember, I was preparing for my own lecture and I was trying to understand how waves travel in self-gravitating disks. So, you know, again, there's a very broad theory that's already developed, but I was looking for some simpler way to explain it really for the purposes of teaching class. And so I thought, okay, what if I just imagine a disk as an infinite number of concentric circles, right? That interact with each other gravitationally. That's a problem in some sense that I can solve using methods from like the late 1700s. I can write down Hamiltonian, well, I can write down the energy function, basically, of their interactions. And what I found is that when you take the continuum limit, when you go from discrete circles that are talking to each other gravitationally to a continuum disk, suddenly this gravitational interaction among them, right, the governing equation becomes the Schrödinger equation. I had to think about that for a little bit. Did you just unify quantum mechanics and gravity? No, this is not the same thing as like, you know, fusing relativity and quantum mechanics. But it did get me thinking a little bit. So the fact that waves in astrophysical disks behave just like wave functions of particles is kind of like an interesting analogy because for me it's easier to imagine waves traveling through, you know, astrophysical disks or really just sheets of paper. And the reason this is, that analogy exists is because there's actually nothing quantum about the Schrödinger equation. The Schrödinger equation is just a wave equation and all of the interpretation that comes from it is quantum, but the equation itself is not a quantum being. So you can use it to model waves. It's not turtles, it's waves all the way down. You can pick which level you pick the wave at. And so it could be at the solar system level that you can use. Right. And also it actually provides a pretty neat calculational tool because it's difficult, so we just talked about simulations, but it's difficult to simulate the behavior of astrophysical disks on time scales that are in between a few orbits and their entire evolution. So it's over a time scale of a few orbits, you do a hydrodynamic simulation, right? Basically that's something that you can do on a modern computer on a time scale of say a week. When it comes to their evolution over their entire lifetime, you don't hope to resolve the orbits, you just kind of hope to understand how the system behaves in between, right? To get access to that, as it turns out, it's pretty cute. You can use the Schrodinger equation to get the answer rapidly, so it's a calculational tool. That's fascinating. By the way, astrophysical disks, how broad is this definition? Okay, so astrophysical disks span a huge amount of ranges. They start maybe at the smallest scale, they start with actually Kuiper Belt objects. Some Kuiper Belt objects have rings, okay? So that's maybe the smallest example of an astrophysical disk. We've got this little potato-shaped asteroid, which is sort of the size of LA or something, and around it are some rings of icy matter. That object is a small astrophysical disk. Then you have Saturn, the rings of Saturn. You have the next set of scale, you have the solar system itself when it was forming, you have a disk. Then you have black hole disks, you have galaxies. Disks are super common in the universe. The reason is that stuff rotates. Gravity works. Those rings could be the material that composes those rings, it could be gas, it could be solid, it could be anything. That's right. The disk that made from which the planets emerged was predominantly hydrogen and helium gas. On the other hand, the rings of Saturn are made up of little ice cubes this big, about a centimeter across. That sounds refreshing. That's incredible, hydrogen and helium gas. In the beginning, it was just hydrogen and helium around the sun. How does that lead to the first formations of solid objects in terms of simulation? Okay, here's the story. Have you ever been to the desert? Yes, I've been to the Death Valley. Actually, it was terrifying, just total tangent, I'm distracting you. I was driving through it and I was really surprised because it was, at first, hot. Then, as it was getting into the evening, there's this huge thunderstorm. It was raining and it got freezing cold. I was like, what the hell? It was the apocalypse. I still just sit there, listening to Bruce Springsteen, I remember, and just thinking, I'm probably going to die. I was okay with it because Bruce Springsteen was on the radio. Look, when you've got the boss, you're ready to meet the boss. That's a good line. Anyway, sorry, the death is yes. It's true. Yeah, by the way, to continue on this tangent, I absolutely love the Southwest for this reason. During the pandemic, I drove from LA to New Mexico a bunch of times. The madness of weather? Yeah, the chaos of weather, the fact that it will be blazing hot one minute and then it's just like, we'll decide to have a little thunderstorm. Maybe we'll decide to go back momentarily to like a thousand degrees and then go back to the thunderstorm. It's amazing. That, by the way, is chaos theory in action. But let's get back to talking about the desert. In the desert, tumbleweeds have a tendency to roll because the wind rolls them. If you're careful, you occasionally see this family of tumbleweeds where there's a big one and then a bunch of little ones that hide in its wake and are all rolling together and almost looks like a family of ducks crossing a street or something. Or for example, if you watch Tour de France, you've got a whole bunch of cyclists and they're cycling within 10 centimeters of each other. They're not BFFs, right? They're not trying to ride together. They are riding together to minimize the collective air resistance, if you will, that they experience. Turns out solids in the protoplanetary disk do just this. There's an instability wherein solid particles, things that are a centimeter across, will start to hide behind one another and form these clouds. Why? Because cumulatively, that minimizes the solid component of this aerodynamic interaction with the gas. Now, these clouds, because they're a favorable energetic condition for the dust to live in, they grow, grow, grow, grow, grow until they become so massive that they collapse under their own weight. That's how the first building blocks of planets form. That's how the big asteroids got there. That's incredible. Is that simulatable or is it not useful to simulate? No, no, that's simulatable. People do these types of calculations. It's really cool. That's actually one of the many fields of planet formation theory that is really, really active. Right now, people are trying to understand all kinds of aspects of that process because, of course, I've explained it as if there's one thing that happens. Turns out, it's a beautifully rich dynamic, but qualitatively, formation of the first building blocks actually follows the same sequence as formation of stars. Stars are just clouds of gas, hydrogen-helium gas that sit in space and slowly cool. At some point, they contract to a point where their gravity overtakes the thermal pressure support, if you will, and they collapse under their own weight and you get a little baby solar system. That's amazing. Do you think one day it will be possible to simulate the full history that took our solar system to what it is today? Yes, and it will be useless. Okay. You don't think your story, many of the ideas that you have about Jupiter clearing the space, like retelling that story in high resolution is not that important? I actually think it's important, but at every stage, you have to design your experiments, your numerical computer experiments so that they test some specific aspect of that evolution. I am not a proponent of doing huge simulations because even if we forget the information theory aspect of not being able to simulate in full detail the universe, because if you do, then you have made an actual universe. It's not the simulation. Simulation is in some sense a compression of information, so therefore you must lose detail. But that point aside, if we are able to simulate the entire history of the solar system in excruciating detail, it'll be cool, but it's not going to be any different from observing it. Because theoretical understanding, which is what ultimately I'm interested in, comes from taking complex things and reducing them down to some mechanism that you can actually quantify. That's the fun part of astrophysics. Just kind of simulating things in extreme detail will make cool visualizations, but that doesn't get you to any better understanding than you had before you did the simulation. If you ask very specific questions, then you'll be able to create very highly compressed, nice, beautiful theories about how things evolved, and then you can use those to then generalize to other solar systems, to other stars and other galaxies, and then say something generalizable about the entire universe. How difficult would it be to simulate our solar system such that we would not know the difference? Meaning, if we are living in a simulation, is there a nice, think of it as a video game, is there a nice compressible way of doing that? Or just kind of like you intuited with a three-body situation is just a giant mess that you cannot create a video game that will seem realistic without actually building your own scratch? Well, I'm speculating, but one of the... Yeah, I know you have a deep understanding of this, but for me, I'm just going to speculate that for at least in the types of simulations that we can do today, inevitably, you run into the problem of resolution. It doesn't matter what you're doing, it is discrete. Now, the way you would go about asking what we're observing, is that a simulation or is that some real continuous thing, is you zoom in, right? You zoom in and try and find the grid scale, if you will. Yeah, I mean, it's a really interesting question. And because the solar system itself and really the double pendulum is chaotic, sitting on another pendulum, it moves unpredictably once you let them go. You really don't need to inject any randomness into a simulation for it to give you stochastic and unpredictable answers. Weather is a great example of this. Weather has a lapen of time of... Typical weather systems have a lapen of time of a few days. And there's a fundamental reason why the forecast always sucks, two weeks in a day, you know, two weeks in advance. It's not that we don't know the equations that govern the atmosphere, we know them well. Their solutions are meaningless though, after a few days. The zooming in thing is very interesting. I think about this a lot, whether there'll be a time soon where we would want to stay in video game worlds, whether it's virtual reality or just playing video games. I mean, I think that time came in the 90s and it's been that time. Well, it's not just games. I mean, it's accelerated. I just recently saw that WoW and Fortnite were played 140 billion hours. And those are just video games. And that's increasing very, very quickly, especially with the people coming up now, being born now and becoming teenagers and so on. Let's have a thought experiment where it's just you and a video game character inside a room. Where you remove the simulation, they need to simulate sort of a lot of objects. If it's just you and that character, how far do you need to simulate in terms of zooming in for it to be very real to you? As real as reality. So like, first of all, you kind of mentioned zooming in, which is fascinating because we have these tools of science that allow us to zoom in, quote unquote, in all kinds of ways in the world around us. But our cognitive abilities, like our perception system as humans is very limited in terms of zooming in. So we might be very easily fooled. Some of the video games like on the PS4 look pretty real to me. I think you would really have to interrogate. I mean, I think even with what we have today, like, I don't know, Ace Combat 7 is a great example. I mean, the way that the clouds are rendered, it's, I mean, it looks just like when you're flying on a real airplane, the kind of transparency. I think that our perception is limited enough already to not be able to tell some of the differences. There's a game called Skyrim. It's an Elder Scrolls role playing game. And I played it for quite a bit. And I think I played it very different than others. Like there'll be long stretches of time where I would just walk around and look at nature in the game. It's incredible. Oh, sure. It's just like the graphics is like, wow, I want to stay there. It was better. I went hiking recently. It was like as good as hiking. So look, I know what you mean, not to go on a huge video game, you know, tangent, but like the third like Witcher game was astonishingly beautiful, right? Especially like playing on on a good hardware machine. It's like, this is pretty legit. That said, I don't resonate with the, I want to stay here. One of the things that I love to do is to go to my boxing gym and box with a guy. There's nothing quite like that physical experience. That's fascinating. That might be simply an artifact of the year you were born. Maybe. Because if you're born today, it almost seems like stupid to go to a gym. Yeah. Like you go to a gym to box with a guy. Why not box with Mike Tyson when you yourself is like in his prime when you yourself are also an incredible boxer in the video game world. For me there's a multitude of reasons why I don't want to box with Mike Tyson. Right? No, no, no, no. I enjoy teeth, you know, and I want to have an ear. No, but your skills in this meat space, in this physical realm is very limited and takes a lot of work and you're a musician, you're an incredible scientist, you only have so much time in the day, but in the video game world you can expand your capabilities in all kinds of dimensions that you can never have possibly have time in the physical world. And so that it doesn't make sense like to be existing, to be working your ass off in the physical world when you can just be super successful in the video game world. But I still. You enjoy sucking at stuff? Yeah, I really do. And struggling to get better? I sure do. I mean, I think like these days with music, music is a great example, right? We just started, you know, practicing live with my band again, you know, after not playing for a year. And, you know, it was just terrible, right? It was just kind of a lot of the nuance, you know, a lot of the detail is just that detail that takes, you know, years of collective practice to develop. It's just lost. But it was just an incredible amount of fun, way more fun than all the like studios and all the way more fun than all the like studio, you know, sitting around and playing that I did, you know, throughout the entire year. So I think there's something, there's something intangible, or maybe maybe tangible about being being in person. I, I sure hope you're wrong. And that, you know, we that's not something that will get lost, because I think there's like such a large part of the human condition is to hang out. If we were doing this interview on zoom, right? I mean, I'd already be, I'd already be bored out of my mind. Exactly. I mean, there's something to that. I mean, I'm almost playing devil's advocate, but at the same time, you know, I'm sure people talk about the same way at the beginning of the 20th century about horses, where they're, they are much more efficient. They're much easier to maintain than cars. It doesn't make sense to have, you know, all the ways that cars break down and there's not enough infrastructure in terms of roads for cars. It doesn't make any sense. Like horses and like nature, you could do the nature, like where, you know, you should be living more natural life. Those are real. You don't want machines in your life to go into pollute your mind and the minds of young people, but then eventually just cars took over. So in that same way, it just seems, uh, going back to horses. I'm just, you know, well, you can be, you can play, uh, uh, uh, what is it? Red dead, red dead redemption, redemption. And you can ride horses in the video game. So let me return us back to planet nine. Uh-huh. Always a good place to come back to. So now that we did a big historical overview of our solar system, what is planet nine? Okay. Planet nine is a hypothetical object that orbits the solar system, right? Uh, an orbital period of about 10,000 years and, um, an orbit, which is slightly tilted with respect to the plane of the solar system, slightly eccentric and the object itself we think is five times more massive than the earth. We have never seen planet nine in a telescope, but we have gravitational evidence for it. And so this is where all this stuff we've been talking about this clustering ideas. Maybe you can speak to the approximate location that we suspect. And also the question I wanted to ask is, uh, what are we supposed to be imagining here? Cause you said there's certain objects in the Kuiper belt that are kind of have a direction to them that they're all like, like flocking in some kind of way. So that's a sense that there's some kind of gravitational object, not changing their orbit, but kind of confining them, like finding that you're like grouping their orbits together. See what would happen if planet nine were not there is these orbits that roughly share a common orientation. They would just disperse, right? They would just become as a mutually symmetric point everywhere. Planet nine's gravity makes it such that these objects stay in a state that's, that's basically anti-aligned with respect to the orbit of planet nine. Um, and, and sort of hang out there and kind of oscillate on timescale of about a billion years. That's one of the lines of evidence for the existence of planet nine. There are others. That's the one that's easiest to maybe visualize just because it's fun to think about orbits that all point into the same direction. But I should, um, you know, emphasize that, for example, the existence of objects, again, Kuiper belt objects that are heavily out of the plane of the solar system, things that are tilted by say 90 degrees, that's not, uh, we don't expect that as an outcome of planet formation. Indeed, planet formation simulations have never produced such objects without some extrinsic gravitational force. Planet nine, on the other hand, generates them very readily. So that, uh, provides kind of an alternative, you know, population of small bodies in the solar system that also get produced by planet nine through an independent kind of gravitational effect. So they're kind of, there's basically five different things that the, uh, that planet nine does individually that are like kind of maybe a one sigma effect where you'd say, yeah, okay, if that's all it was, maybe it's not no reason to jump up and down, but because it's, it's, it's a multitude of these puzzles that all are explained by one hypothesis. That's, that's really the, the magnetism, the attraction of the planet nine model. So can you just clarify? So most orbit, most planets in the solar system orbit at an approximately the same sort of it's flat. Yeah, it's like one degree. They, the difference between them is about one degree. So, but nevertheless, if we looked at our solar system, it would look and like could see every single object, it would look like a sphere. The inner part where the planets are would look like, you know, flat, right? The, the Kuiper belt and the asteroid belt have a larger, um, it gets fatter and fatter and fatter. That's right. And if you look at the very outside, it's polluted by this, you know, quasi-sphoroidal thing. Nobody's of course ever seen the Oort cloud, right? We've only seen comments that come from the Oort cloud. So the Oort cloud, which is this, right, population of distant debris, its existence is also inferred. You could say alternatively, there is, you know, there's a big cosmic creature that occasionally, you know, sitting at 20,000 AU and occasionally throws an icy rock towards the sun like that. Spaghetti monster, I think it's called. Okay. I mean, so it's a mystery in many ways, but you can kind of infer a bunch of things about it. It's, by the way, both terrifying and exciting that there's this vast darkness all around us that's full of objects that they're just throwing. Just there, yeah. It's actually kind of astonishing, right? That we have only explored a small fraction of the solar system, right? That, that really kind of baffles me because I remember as a student, you know, studying physics, you know, you do the problem where you put the earth around the sun, you solve that and like, it's one line of math and you say, okay, well, that surely was figured out by Newton. So like all the interesting stuff is not in the solar system, but that it's just plainly not true. There are, there are mysteries in the solar system that are remarkable that we are only now starting to just kind of scratch the surface of. And some of those objects probably have some information about the history of our solar system. Absolutely. Absolutely. Like a great example is, you know, small meteorites, right? Small meteorites are melted, right? They have, they're differentiated, meaning some of the iron sinks to the core. You say, well, how can that be? Because they're so small that they wouldn't have melted just from the heat of their accretion. Turns out the fact that the solar nebula, the disc that made the planets was polluted by aluminum-26 is in itself a remarkable thing. It means the solar system did not form in isolation. It formed in a giant cloud of thousands of other stars that were also forming, some of which were undergoing, you know, going through supernova explosions, some of, and releasing these unstable isotopes that, which we now see kind of the traces of. It's so cool. Do you think it's possible that life from other solar systems was injected and that that was, what was the origin of life on earth? Yeah, the panspermia idea. Yeah, the panspermia idea. That's seen as a low probability event by people who studied the origin of life, but that's because then they would be out of a job. Well, I don't think they'd be out of the job because you just then say, you have to figure out how life started there. But then you have to go there. We can study life on earth much easier. We could study it in the lab much easier because we can replicate conditions that are from an early earth much easier from a chemistry perspective, from a biology perspective. You can intuit a bunch of stuff. You can look at different parts of earth. To an extent, I mean, the early earth was completely unlike the current earth, right? There was no oxygen. So one of my colleagues at Caltech, Joe Kirchnick, is certain, right? Something like 100% certainty that life started on Mars and came to earth on Martian media rights. This is not a problem that I like to kind of think about too much. Like the origin of life, it's a fascinating problem, but it's not physics. And I just don't love it. It's the same reason you don't love, I thought you're a musician. So music is not physics either. So why are you so into it? 100% physics. Okay. No, no, look, in all seriousness though, there are a few things that I really, really enjoy. I genuinely enjoy physics. I genuinely enjoy music. I genuinely enjoy martial arts and I genuinely enjoy my family. I should have said that all in a reverse order or something, but I like to focus on these things and not worry too much about everything else. You know what I mean? Yes. Just because there is a, like you said earlier, there's a time constraint. You can't do it all. There's many mysteries all around us. And they're all beautiful in different ways. To me, that thing I love is artificial intelligence. Perhaps I love it because eventually I'm trying to suck up to our future overlords. The question of, you said there's a lot of kind of little pieces of evidence for this thing that's Planet Nine. If we were to try to collect more evidence or be certain, like a paper that says, like you drop it, clear, we're done. What does that require? Does that require us sending probes out or do you think we can do it from telescopes here on earth? What are the different ideas for conclusive evidence for Planet Nine? The moment Planet Nine gets imaged from a telescope on earth, it's done. I mean, it's just there. Can you clarify it? Because you mentioned that before. From an image, would you be able to tell? Yes. So from an image, the moment you see something, something that is reflecting sunlight back at you and you know that it's hundreds of times as far away from the sun as is the earth, you're done. So you're thinking, so basically if you have a really far away thing that's big, five times the size of earth, that means that is Planet Nine. That is Planet Nine. Could there be multiple objects like that, I guess? In principle, yeah. I mean, there's no law of physics that doesn't allow you to have multiple objects. There's also no evidence at present for there being multiple objects. I wonder if it's possible, just like we're finding exoplanets, whether given the size of the Oro Cloud, there's basically, it's rare and rare, but there's sprinkled Planet Nine, 10, 11, 12, like these some... Got 13. Yeah, it goes after that. I can just keep counting. So just something about the dynamical system like it becomes lower and lower probability event, but they gather up, like they become, would they become larger and larger maybe, something like that. I wonder if like discovering Planet Nine will just like be almost like a springboard, it's like, well, what's beyond that? It's entirely plausible. The Oro Cloud itself probably holds about five earth masses or seven earth masses of material, right? So it's not nothing. And it all ultimately comes down to at what point will the observational surveys sample enough of the solar system to kind of reveal interesting things. There's a great analogy here with Neptune and the story of how Neptune was discovered. Neptune was not discovered by looking at the sky, right? It was discovered by, it was discovered mathematically, right? So yeah, the orbit of Uranus, when Uranus was found, this was 1781, it's the kind of tracking of both the tracking of the orbit of Uranus as well as the reconstruction of the orbit of Uranus immediately revealed that it was not following the orbit that it was supposed to, right? The predicted orbit deviated away from where it actually was. So in the mid 1800s, right, a French mathematician by the name of Orban Le Verrier did a beautifully sophisticated calculation which said, if this is due to gravity of a more distant planet, then that planet is there, okay? And then they found it. But the point is the understanding of where to look for Neptune came entirely out of celestial mechanics. The case with planet nine is a little bit different because what we can do, I think, relatively well is predict the orbit of mass of planet nine. We cannot tell you where it is on its orbit. The reason is we haven't seen the Kuiper belt objects complete an orbit, their own orbit, even once because it takes 4,000 years. But I plan to live on as an AI being, and I'll be tracking those orbits as- So it takes 4,000 or 5,000 years. I mean, it doesn't have to be AI, it could be longevity, there's a lot of really exciting genetic engineering research. So you'll just be a brain waiting for your brain waiting for the orbit to complete for the basic Kuiper belt objects. That's right. That's like kind of the worst reason to want to live a long time, right? Can the brain smoke a cigarette? Can you just light one up while you're waiting? I know, right? It's just like- But you're making me actually realize that the one way to explore the galaxy is by just sitting here on earth and waiting. So if we can just get really good at waiting, it's like a Muamua or these interstellar objects that fly in, you can just wait for them to come to you. Same with the aliens, you can wait for them to come to you. If you get really good at waiting, then that's one way to do the exploration because eventually the thing will come to you. Maybe the intelligent alien civilizations get much better at waiting and so they all decide, so game theoretically, to start waiting. And it's just a bunch of ancient intelligent civilizations of aliens all throughout the universe. They're just sitting there waiting for each other. Look, you can't just be good at waiting. You got to know how to chill. You can't just sit around and do nothing. You got to know how to chill. I honestly think that as we progress, if the aliens are anything like us, we enjoy loving things we do. And it's very possible that we just figure out mechanisms here on earth to enjoy our life and we just stay here on earth forever, that exploration becomes less and less of an interesting thing to do. So you basically, yes, wait and chill. You get really optimally good at chilling and thereby exploring is not that interesting. So in terms of 4,000 years would be nothing for scientists. We'll be chilling and just all kinds of scientific explorations will become possible because we'll just be here on earth. So chill. So chill. You have a paper out recently because you already mentioned some of these ideas, but I'd love it if you could dig into it a little bit. Yeah, of course. The injection of inner Oort cloud objects into the distant Kuiper belt by Planet Nine. What is this idea of Planet Nine injecting objects into the Kuiper belt? Okay. Let me take a brief step back and when we do calculations of Planet Nine, when we do the simulations, as far as our simulations are concerned, the Trans-Neptunian solar system is entirely sourced from the inside. Namely, the Kuiper belt gets scattered by Neptune and then Planet Nine does things to it and aligns the orbits and so on. Then we calculate what happens on the lifetime of the solar system, yada, yada, yada. During the pandemic, one of the kind of questions we asked ourselves, and this is indeed something Mike Brown, who's a partner in crime on this, and I do regularly, is we say, how can we A, disprove ourselves and B, how can we improve our simulations? Like, what's missing? One idea that maybe should have been obvious in retrospect is that all of our simulations treated the solar system as some isolated creature, right? But the solar system did not form in isolation, right? It formed in this cluster of stars and during that phase of forming together with thousands of other stars, we believe the solar system formed this almost spherical population of icy debris that sits maybe at a few thousand times the separation between the earth and the sun, maybe even a little bit closer. If Planet Nine's not there, that population is completely dormant and these objects just slowly orbit the sun. Nothing interesting happens to them ever. But what we realized is that if Planet Nine is there, Planet Nine can actually grab some of those objects and gravitationally re-inject them into the distant solar system. So we thought, okay, let's look into this with numerical experiments. Do our simulations, does this process work? And if it works, what are its consequences? So it turns out, indeed, not only does Planet Nine inject these distant inner Oort cloud objects into the Kuiper belt, they follow roughly the same pathway as the objects that are being scattered out. So there's this kind of two-way river of material. Some of it is coming out by Neptune scattering, some of it is moving in. And if you work through the numbers, you kind of, at the end of the day, that it has an effect on the best fit orbit for Planet Nine itself. So if you realize that the data set that we're observing is not entirely composed of things that came out of the solar system, but also things that got re-injected back in, then turns out the best fit Planet Nine slightly more eccentric. That's kind of getting into the weeds. The point here is that the existence of Planet Nine itself provides this natural bridge that connects an otherwise dormant population of icy debris of the solar system with things that we're starting to directly observe. So it can flow back, so it's not just the river flowing one way, it's maybe a smaller stream go back and... Backwash. You want to backwash. You want to incorporate that into the simulations, into your understanding of those distant objects when you're trying to make sense of the various observations and so on. Exactly. That's fascinating. I gotta ask you, some people think that many of the observations that you're describing could be described by a primordial black hole. First, what is a primordial black hole and what do you think about this idea? Yeah. So primordial black hole is a black hole which is made not through the usual pathway of making a black hole, which is that you have a star, which is more massive than 1.4 or so solar masses. And basically when it runs out of fuel, runs out of its nuclear fusion fuel, it can't hold itself up anymore and just the whole thing collapses on itself. Right? And you create a... I mean, one, I guess, simple way to think about it is you create an object with zero radius that has mass but zero radius, I guess, singularity. Now, such black holes exist all over the place. In the galaxy, there's in fact a really big one at the center of the galaxy. That one's always looking at you when you're not looking. Okay? And it's always talking about you. And when you turn off the lights, it wakes up. That's right. So such black holes are all over the place. When they merge, we get to see incredible gravitational waves that they emit, et cetera, et cetera. One kind of plausible scenario, however, is that when the universe was forming, basically during the Big Bang, you created a whole spectrum of black holes, some with masses of five Earth masses, some with masses of 10 Earth masses, like the entire mass spectrum size, some mass of asteroids. Now, on the smaller end, over the lifetime of the universe, the small ones kind of evaporate and are not there anymore. At least, this is what the calculations tell us. But five Earth masses is big enough to not have evaporated. So one idea is that Planet Nine is not a planet, and instead it is a five Earth mass black hole. And that's why it's hard to find. Now, can we right away from our calculations say, that's definitely true or that's not true? Absolutely not. In fact, our calculations tell you nothing other than the orbit and the mass. And that means the black hole, I mean, it could be a five Earth mass cup. It could be a five Earth mass hedgehog or a black hole, or really anything that's five Earth masses will do, because the gravity of a black hole is no different than the gravity of a planet. If the sun became a black hole tomorrow, it would be dark, but the Earth would keep orbiting it. This notion that black holes suck everything in, that's like a sci-fi notion. It's just math. What would be the difference between a black hole and a planet in terms of observationally? Observationally, the difference would be that you will never find the black hole. The truth is, I never looked into this very carefully, but there are some constraints that you can get just statistically. Say, okay, if the sun has a binary companion, which is a five Earth mass black hole, then that means such black holes would be extremely common. And you can look for lensing events and then you say, okay, maybe that's not so likely. But that said, I want to emphasize that there's a limit to what our calculations can tell you. That's the orbit and the mass. So I think there's a bunch, like Ed Witten, I think wishes it's a black hole, because I think one exciting thing about black holes in our solar system is that we can go there and we can maybe study the singularity somehow, because that allows us to understand some fundamental things about physics. If it's a planet, so planet nine, we may not, and we go there, we may not discover anything profoundly new. The interesting thing, perhaps you can correct me about planet nine, is like the big picture of it. The whole big story of the Kuiper belt and all those kinds of things. It's not that planet nine would be somehow fundamentally different from, I don't know, Neptune, in terms of the kind of things we can learn from it. So I think that there's kind of a hope that it's a black hole because it's an entirely new kind of object. Maybe you can correct me. Yeah, I mean, of course, here my own biases creep in because I'm interested in planets around other stars. And I would say, I would disagree that we wouldn't find things that would be truly fundamentally new because as it turns out, the galaxy is really good at making five or three Earth mass objects. The most common type of planet that we see, that we discover orbiting around other stars is a few Earth masses. In the solar system, there's no analog for that. We go from one Earth mass object, which is this one, to a few Earth masses. And so we go from one Earth mass object, which is this one, to skipping to Neptune and Uranus, which themselves are actually relatively poorly understood, especially Uranus from the interior structure point of view. If planet nine is a planet, going there will give us the closest window into understanding what other planets look like. And I'll say this, that planets, with their complexity on some logarithmic scale, fall somewhere between a star and an insect. An insect is way more complicated than a star. Just all kinds of physical processes and really biochemical processes that occur inside of an insect that just make a star look like somebody is playing with a spring or something. I think it would be arguably more interesting to go to planet nine if it's a planet, because black holes are simple. They're basically macroscopic particles. Just like the star that you mentioned in terms of complexity. So it's possible that planet nine is supposed to be homogeneous, is super heterogeneous, has a bunch of cool stuff going on that could give us intuition. I never thought about that, that it's basically Earth number two in terms of size and starts giving us intuition that could be generalizable to Earth-like planets elsewhere in the galaxy. Yeah, Pluto is also in the sense, Pluto is a tiny, tiny thing, just like you would have imagined as just a tiny ball of ice, who cares? But the New Horizons images of Pluto reveal so much remarkable structure. They reveal glaciers flowing, and these are glaciers not made out of water ice, but CO ice. It turns out at those temperatures of 40 or so Kelvin, water ice looks like metal. It just doesn't flow at all, but then ice made up of carbon monoxide starts to flow. There's just all kinds of really cool phenomena that you otherwise just wouldn't really even imagine that occur. So yeah, there's a reason why I like planets. Well, let me ask you, I find as I read the idea that Ed Witten was thinking about this kind of stuff fascinating. So he's a mathematical physicist who's very interested in string theory, won the Fields Medal for his work in mathematics. So I read that he proposed a fleet of probes accelerated by radiation pressure that could discover a planet nine primordial black holes location. What do you think about this idea of sending a bunch of probes out there? Yeah, look, the idea is a cool one. You go and you say, launch them basically isotropically, you track where they go. And if I understand the idea correctly, you basically measure the deflection and you say, okay, that must be something there since the probe trajectories are being altered. Oh, so the basic sensory mechanism is the, it's not like you have senses on the probes, it's more like you're, because you're very precisely able to capture, to measure the trajectory of the probes, you can then infer the gravitational fields. Yeah, I think that's the basic idea. Back a few years ago, we had conversations like these with engineers from JPL. They more or less convinced me that this is much more difficult than it seems, because you don't, at that level of precision, things like solar flares matter. Solar flares are completely chaotic. You can't predict which, where a solar flare will happen. That will drive radiation pressure gradients. You don't know where every single asteroid will hit. So like actually doing that problem, I think it's possible, but it's not a trivial matter. Right. Well, I wonder not just about Planet Nine. I wonder if that's kind of the future of doing science in our solar system is to just launch a huge number of probes. So like a whole order of magnitude, many orders of magnitude, larger numbers of probes, but it's not like you're just launching a bunch of probes and then starting for a bunch of different stuff, not just gravity, but everything else. So in this regard, I actually think there is a huge revolution that's to some extent already started. The standard kind of like time scale for a NASA mission is that you propose it and it launches, I don't know, like 150 years after you propose it. I'm over exaggerating, but it's just a development cycle and it gets delayed 55 times. That is not going away. The really cutting edge things, you have to do it this way because you don't know what you're building, so to speak. But the CubeSat kind of world is starting to provide an avenue for launching something that costs a few million dollars and has a turnaround time scale of like a couple of years. You can imagine doing PhD theses where you design the mission, the mission goes to where you're going and you do the science all within a time span of five, six years. That has not been fully executed on yet, but I absolutely think that's on the horizon and we're not talking a decade. I think we're talking like this decade. Yeah, and the companies are accelerating all this with Blue Origin and SpaceX. There's a bunch of more CubeSat oriented companies that are pushing this forward. Let me ask you on that topic, what do you think about either one? Elon Musk with SpaceX going to Mars, I think he wants SpaceX to be the first to put a first human on Mars. And then Jeff Bezos, got to give him props, wants to be the first to fly his own rocket out into space. You know, wasn't there a guy who like built his rocket out of garbage? This was like a couple years ago and somewhere in the desert he launched himself. I'm not tracking this closely, but I think I am familiar with folks who built their own rocket to try to prove the earth is flat. Yes, that's the guy I'm talking about. He also jumped some limousine. Truly revolutionary mind. You have the greater men than either you or I. So look, it's been astonishing to watch how really over the last decade, the commercial sector took over this industry that traditionally has really been like a government thing to do. Motivated primarily by the competition between nations, like the Cold War. And now it's motivated more and more by the natural forces of capitalism. Yes, that's right. So, okay, here I have many ideas about it. I think on the one hand, right, like what SpaceX has been able to do, for example, phenomenal. If that brings down the price of space exploration, that turnaround time scale for space exploration, which I think it inevitably will, that's a huge boost to the human condition. The same time, right, if we're talking astronomy, right, there also it comes at a huge cost, right? And the Starlink satellites is a great example of that cost, right? At one point, in fact, I was just camping in the Mojave with a friend of mine and they saw this string of satellites just kind of like appear and then disappear into nowhere. So that is beginning to interfere with Earth-based observations. So I think there's tremendous potential there. It's also important to be responsible about how it's executed. Now with Mars and the whole idea of exploring Mars, right, I don't have like strong opinions on whether a manned mission is required or not required. But I do think, you know, we need to focus... The thing to keep in mind is that I generally kind of... I'm not signed on, if you will, to the idea that Mars is some kind of a safe haven that we can, you know, escape to, right? Mars sucks, right? Like living on Mars, if you want to live on Mars, like you can have that experience by going to the Mojave Desert and camping and it's just like... It's just not a great experience. Well, it's interesting, but there's something captivating about that kind of mission of us striving out into space and by making Mars in some ways habitable for at least like months at a time, I think would lead to engineering breakthroughs that would make life like in many ways much better on Earth. Like it will come up with ideas we totally don't expect yet, both on the robotics side, on the food engineering side, on the, you know, maybe like we'll switch from... Like there'll be huge breakthroughs in insect farming, as exciting as I find that idea to be. That in the ways we consume protein, maybe it'll revolutionize. We do factory farming, which is full of cruelty and, you know, and torture of animals will revolutionize that completely because of our... Like we don't... We shouldn't need to go to Mars to revolutionize life here on Earth, but at the same time, I shouldn't need a deadline to get shit done, but I do need it. And then the same way, I think we need Mars. There's something about the human spirit that loves that longing for exploration. I agree with that thesis. The going to the moon, right? And that whole endeavor has, you know, has captivated the imagination of so many and it has led to incredible kind of incredible ideas, really, and probably in nonlinear ways, right? Not like, okay, we went to the moon, therefore some person here has thought of this. In that similar sense, I think, you know, space exploration is... There's something, there's some real magnetism about it and it's on a genetic level, right? Like we have this need to keep exploring, right? When we're done with a certain frontier, we move on to the next frontier. All that I'm saying is that I'm not moving to Mars to live there permanently ever, you know? And I think that, you know, I'm glad you noted the kind of degradation of the Earth, right? I think that is a true kind of the leading order challenge of our time. Yeah, it's a great engineering... That's a bunch of engineering problems. I'm most interested in space because as I've read extensively, it's apparently very difficult to have sex in space. And so I just want that problem to be solved because I think once we solve the sex in space problem, we'll revolutionize sex here on Earth, thereby increasing the fun on Earth and the consequences of that can only be good. I mean, you can, you've got a clear plan, right? And it sounds like... I'm submitting proposals to NASA as we speak. That's right. I keep getting rejected. I don't know why. Okay. You need better diagrams. Better pictures. I should have thought of that. You a while ago mentioned that, you know, there's certain aspects in the history of the solar system and Earth that resulted, that it could have resulted in an opaque atmosphere, but it didn't. We can see the stars. And somebody mentioned to me a little bit ago, it's almost like a philosophical question for you. Do you think humans, like human society would develop as it did or at all, if we couldn't see the stars? It would be drastically different, but just dry, if it ever did develop. So I think some of the early developments, right, of like... Fire. You know, fire, you know, first of all, that atmosphere would be so hot because, you know, if you have an opaque atmosphere, the temperature at the bottom is huge. So we would be very different beings to start with. We'd have very different... But it could be cloudy in certain kinds of ways that you could still get... Okay. Think about like a greenhouse, right? A greenhouse is cloudy, effectively, but it's super hot. Yeah, it's hard to avoid having an atmosphere. If you have an opaque atmosphere, it's hard to... Right. Venus is a great example, right? Venus is, I don't remember exactly how many degrees, but it's hundreds in Celsius, right? It's not a hundred, it's hundreds. Even though it's only a little bit closer to the sun, that temperature is entirely coming from the fact that the atmosphere is thick. So it's a sauna of sorts. Yeah, yeah. You go there, you know, you feel refreshed after you come back, you know. But if you stay there... I mean, so, okay, take that as an assumption. This is a philosophical question, not a biological one. So you have a life that develops under these extremely hot conditions. Yeah. So let's see, so much of the early evolution of mankind was driven by exploration, right? And the interest in stars originated in part as a tool to guide that exploration, right? I mean, that in itself, I think would be a huge differential in the way that our evolution on this planet. Yeah, I mean, stars, that's brilliant. So even in that aspect, but even in further aspects, astronomy just shows up in basically every single development in the history of science up until the 20th century, it shows up. So I wonder without that, if we would have, if we would even get like calculus. Yeah, look, that's a great, I mean, that's a great point. Newton in part developed calculus because he was interested in understanding, explaining Kepler's laws, right? In general, that whole mechanistic understanding of the night sky, right? Replacing a religious understanding where you interpret, you know, this is, you know, this whatever fire god writing his, you know, a little chariot across the sky as opposed to, you know, this is some mechanistic set of laws. That transformed humanity and arguably put us on the course that we're on today, right? The entirety of the last 400 years and the development of kind of our technological world that we live in today was sparked by that, right? Abandoning an effectively, you know, a non-secular view of the natural world and kind of thing, okay, this can be understood and if it can be understood, it can be utilized. We can create our own variance of this. Absolutely, we would be a very, very different species without astronomy. This I think extends beyond just astronomy, right? There are questions like, why do we need to spend money on X, right? Where X can be anything like paleontology, right? The mating patterns of penguins. Yeah, that's like- Essential. That's right. I think, you know, there's a tremendous underappreciation for the usefulness of useless knowledge, right? I mean- That's brilliant. I didn't come up with this. This is a little book by the guy who started the Institute for Advanced Studies, but, you know, it's so true. So much of the electronics that are on this table, right, work on Maxwell's equations. Maxwell wasn't sitting around in the 1800s saying, you know, I hope one day, you know, we'll make a couple of mics so a couple guys can have this conversation, right? That wasn't at no point was that the motivation and yet, you know, it gave us the world that we have today. And the answer is, if you are a purely pragmatic person, if you don't care at all about kind of the human condition, none of this, the answer is, you can tax it, right? Like, useless things have created way more capital than useful things. And the sad thing, I mean, first of all, it's really important to think about and it's brilliant in the following context. Like, Neil deGrasse Tyson has this book about the role of military based funding in the development of science. And then so much of technological breakthroughs in the 20th century had to do with humans working on different military things. And then the outcome of that had nothing to do with military. It had some military application, but their impact was much, much bigger than military. The splitting of the atom is a kind of a canonical example of this. We all know the tragedy that arises from splitting of the atom and yet, you know, so much, I mean, the atom itself does not care for what purpose it is being split. So- So I wonder if we took the same amount of funding as we used for war and poured it into like totally seemingly useless things, like the mating patterns of penguins, we would get the internet anyway. I think so. I think so. And, you know, perhaps more of the internet would have penguins, you know? So we're both joking, but in some sense, like, I wonder, it's not the penguins, because penguins is more about sort of biology, but all useless kind of tinkering and all kinds of, in all kinds of avenues. And also because military applications are often burdened by the secrecy required. So it's often like so much, the openness is lacking. And if we learned anything for the last few decades is that when there's openness in science, that accelerates the development of science. That's right. That's true. The openness of science truly, you know, it benefits everybody. The notion that if, you know, I share my science with you, then you're going to catch up and like know the same thing. That is a short-sighted viewpoint, because if you catch up and you open, you know, you discover something that puts me in a position to do the next step. Right. So I absolutely agree with all of this. I mean, the kind of question of like military funding versus non-military funding is obviously a complicated one. But at the end of the day, I think we have to get over the notion as a society that we are going to, you know, pay for this, and then we will get that. Right. That's true if you're buying like, I don't know, toilet paper or something, right. It's just not true in the intellectual pursuit. That's not how it works. And sometimes it'll fail, right. Like sometimes like a huge fraction of what I do, right. I come up with an idea. I think, oh, it's great. And then I work it out. It's totally not great, right. It fails immediately. Failure is not a sign that the initial pursuit was worthless. Right. Failure is just part of this kind of this whole exploration thing. And we should fund more and more of this exploration, the variety of the exploration. I think it was Linus Pauling or somebody from, you know, that generation of scientists. And, you know, a good way to have good ideas is to have a lot of ideas. So I think that's true. If you are conservative in your thinking, if you worry about proposing something that's going to fail and oh, what if, you know, like, there's no science police that's going to come and arrest you for proposing the wrong thing. And, you know, it's also just like, why would you, why would you do science if you're afraid of, you know, taking that step? It would be so much better to propose things that are plausible, that are interesting, and then for a fraction of them to be wrong than to just kind of, you know, make incremental progress all your life, right. Speaking of wild ideas, let me ask you about the thing we mentioned previously, which is this interstellar object, a mua mua. Could it be space junk from a distant alien civilization? You can't immediately discount that by saying absolutely it cannot. Anything can be space junk. I mean, from that point of view, can any of the Kuiper Belt objects we see be space junk? Anything on the night sky can in principle be space junk. And Kuiper Belt would catch interstellar objects potentially and like force them into an orbit if they're like small enough? Not the Kuiper Belt itself, but you can imagine like Jupiter family comets being captured, you know, so you can actually capture things. It's even easier to do this very early in the solar system, like early in the solar system's life, while it's still in a cluster of stars. It's unavoidable that you capture debris, whether it be natural debris or unnatural debris or just debris of some kind from other stars. It's like a daycare center, right? Like everybody passes their infections on to other kids. You know, one more, there's been a lot of discussion about it. There's been a lot of interest in this over, like, is it aliens or is it not? But let's like, if you just kind of look at the facts, like what we know about it is it's kind of like a weird shape and it also accelerated. Right? Like that's the two, those are the two interesting things about it. There are puzzles about it and perhaps the most daring resolution to this puzzle is that it's not, you know, aliens or it's not like a rock. It's actually a piece of hydrogen ice. So this is a friend of mine, you know, Darrell Seligman and Greg Loughlin came up with this idea that in giant molecular clouds that are just clouds of hydrogen, helium, gas that live in, live throughout the galaxy at their cores, you can condense ice to become these hydrogen hydrogen, you know, icebergs, if you will. And then that explains many of the aspects of, in fact, I think that explains all of the one more mystery, how it becomes elongated, because basically the hydrogen ice sublimates and kind of like a bar of soap that, you know, slowly kind of elongates as you strip away the surface layers, how it was able to accelerate because of a jet that is produced from, you know, the hydrogen coming off of it, but you can't see it because it's hydrogen gas. Like all of this stuff kind of falls together nicely. I'm intrigued by that idea, truly, because it's like, if that's true, that's a new type of astrophysical object. And it would be produced by, what's the monster that produced it initially, that kind of object? So this is giant molecular clouds. They are everywhere. I mean, they are, the fact that they exist is not... Are they rogue clouds or are they part of like an oar cloud? No, no, they're rogue clouds. They're just floating about. Yeah. So if you go, like a lot of people imagine the galaxy as being a, you know, a bunch of stars, right? And they're just orbiting, right? But the truth is if you fly between stars, you run into clouds. They don't have any large object that creates orbits. They're just floating about. Just floating. But why are they floating together? Or they just float together for time and not... Well, so these are the, these eventually become the nurseries of stars. So as they cool, they contract and then collapse into stars or into groups of stars. But some of them, the starless molecular clouds, according to the calculations that Daryl and Greg did, can create these icicles of hydrogen ice. I wonder why they would be flying so fast. Because they seem to be moving pretty fast at a quick pace. You mean Oumuamua? Oumuamua, yeah. That's just because of their acceleration due to the sun. If you stop, I mean, it's like take something really far away, let it go and the sun is here. By the time it comes close to the sun, right? It's moving pretty fast. So that's an attractive explanation, I think. Not so much because it's cool, but it makes a clear prediction, right? Of when the Verurubin Observatory comes online next year or so, we will discover many, many more of these objects, right? And they have... So I like theories that are falsifiable, right? Not just testable, but falsifiable. It's good to have a falsifiable theory where you can say that's not true. Aliens is one that's fundamentally difficult to say, no, that's not alien. Well, the interesting thing to me, if we look at one alien civilization and then we look at the things it produces, in terms of before to try to detect the alien civilization, there's like, say there's 10 billion aliens, there would probably be trillions of dumb drone type things produced by the aliens and then be many, many, many more orders of magnitude of junk. So like if you were to look for an alien civilization, in my mind, you would be looking for the junk. That's the more efficient thing to look for. I'm not saying Amoamua has any characteristics of space junk, but it kind of opened my eyes to the idea that we shouldn't necessarily be looking to the queen of the ant colony. We should be looking at, I don't know, I don't know, like traces of alien life that doesn't look intelligent in any way, may not even look like life. It could be just garbage. We should be looking for garbage. Just generically. Garbage that's producible by unnatural forces. For me, at least, that was kind of interesting because if you have a successful alien civilization, that we will be producing many more orders of magnitude of junk and that would be easier potentially to detect. Well, so you have to produce the junk, but you have to also launch it. So this is where, let's imagine. Garbage disposal. Yeah. But let's imagine we are a successful civilization that has made it to space. We clearly have. And yes, we're in the infancy of that pursuit, but we've launched, I don't know how many satellites, probably if you count GPS satellites, it must be at least thousands. It's certainly thousands. I don't know if it's over 10,000, but it's on that order. But it's on that large order of magnitude. How many of the things that we've launched will ever leave the solar system? I think two. Well, maybe the Voyager, the Voyager 1, Voyager 2. I don't know if the Pioneer. So maybe three. There's also a Tesla Roadster out there. That one, it will never leave the solar system. I think that one will eventually collide with Mars. That can be SpaceX's first Mars destination. But look, so there's an energetic cost to interstellar travel, which is really hard to overcome. And when we think about generically, what do we look for in an alien civilization, oftentimes we tend to imagine that the thing you look for is the thing that we're doing right now. So I think that if I look at the future, and for a while, like, we would say, OK, if aliens are out there, they must be broadcasting in radio. The amount that we broadcast in radio has diminished tremendously in the last 50 years. But we're doing a lot more computation. What are the signs of computation? That's an interesting question to ask. We're, I don't know, I think something on the order of a few percent of the entire electrical grid last year went to mining Bitcoin, right? There could be a lot of, in the future, different consequences of the computation, which I'm biased, but it could be robotics, it could be artificial intelligence. So we may be looking for intelligent looking objects. That's what I meant by probes, like things that move in kind of artificial ways. But the emergence of AI is not an if, right? It's happening right in front of our eyes. And the energetic costs associated with that are becoming a tangible problem. So I think if you imagine kind of extrapolating that into the future, right, what becomes the bottleneck, right? The bottleneck might be powering the AI, broadly speaking, not one AI, but powering that entire AI ecosystem, right? So I don't know. I think space junk is kind of, it's an interesting idea, but it's heavily influenced by like sci-fi of 1950s, where by 2020, we're all like flying to the moon. And so we produce a lot of space junk. I'm not sure if that's the pathway that alien civilizations take. I've also never seen an alien civilization. I don't know. That's true. But if your theory of chill turns out to be true, and then we don't necessarily explore, we seize the exploration phase of, like alien civilizations quickly seize the exploration phase of their efforts, then perhaps they'll just be chilling in a particular space, expanding slowly, but then using up a lot of resources and then have to have a lot of garbage disposal that sends stuff out. And the other idea was that it could be a relay that you'll almost have like these GPS-like markers that you send throughout, which I think is kind of interesting. It's similar to this probe idea of sending a large number of probes out to measure gravitational, to measure basically, yeah, the gravitational field, essentially. I mean, a lot of people at Caltech or in MIT are trying to measure gravitational fields, and there's a lot of ideas of sending stuff out there that accurately measures those gravitational fields to have a greater understanding of the early universe. But then you might realize that communication through gravity is actually much more effective than radio waves, for example, something like that. And then you send out, I mean, okay, if you're an alien civilization that's able to have gigantic masses, like basically... We're getting there as a civilization. No, we're not even close. Well, I mean... Okay, you're okay. I mean, like be able to sort of play with black holes, that kind of thing. So we're talking about a whole other order of magnitude of masses, then it may be very effective to send signals via gravitational waves. Actually, my sense is that all of these things are genuinely difficult to predict. And I don't mean to kind of shy away. I really mean if you think, if you take imagination of what the future will look like from 500 years ago, right? It's just, it is so hard to conceive of the impossible, right? So it's almost limiting to try and imagine things that are an order of magnitude, or two orders of magnitude ahead in terms of progress, just because you mentioned cars before. If you were to ask people what they wanted in 1870, it's faster buggies, right? So I think the whole like kind of alien conversation inevitably gets limited by our entire kind of collective astrophysical lack of imagination. So to push back a little bit, I find that it's really interesting to talk about these wild ideas about the future, whether it's aliens, whether it's AI, with brilliant people like yourself, who are focused on very particular tools of science we have today, to solve very particular rigorous scientific questions. And it's almost like putting on this wild dreamy hat some percent of the time and say, what would alien civilizations look like? What would alien trash look like? What would our own civilization that sends out trillions of AI systems out there, like Hal 9000 or 10,000 out there, what would that look like? And you're right, any one prediction is probably going to be horrendously wrong. But there's something about creating these kind of wild predictions that kind of opens up. There's a huge magnetism to it, right? And some of it, you know, I mean, some of the Jules Verne novels did a phenomenal job predicting the future, right? That actually was a great example of what you're talking about, like allowing your imagination to run free. I mean, I just hope there's dragons. I love dragons. Yeah, dragons are the best. But see, the cool thing about science fiction and these kinds of conversations, it doesn't just predict the future, I think. Some of these things will create the future. Planting the idea, the humans are amazing, like fake it till you make it. Humans are really good at taking an idea that seems impossible at the time. And for any one individual human, that idea is like planting a seed that eventually materializes itself. It's weird. It's weird how science fiction can create science fiction. It drives the science. I agree with you. And I think in this regard, you know, I'm like a sucker for sci-fi. It's all I listen to like now when I run. And some of it is completely implausible, right? And it's just like, I don't care. It's so funny. It's both entertaining and it's just like, it's imagination. You know about the Black Clouds book? I think it was by Fred Hoyle. This has great connections with sort of a lot of the advancements that are happening in NLP right now, right? With transformer models and so on. But you know, it's this Black Cloud shows up in the solar system and then, you know, people try to send radio and then it learns to talk back at you. So anyway, we don't have to talk at all about it, but it's just, it's something worth checking out. With that on the alien front with the Black Cloud, to me, and exactly on the NLP front, and also just explainability of AI, it's fascinating. Just the very question, Stephen Wolfram looked at this with the movie Arrival. It's like, what would be the common language that we would discover? The reason that's really interesting to me is we have aliens here on Earth. Japanese. Japanese is the obvious answer. Japanese, yeah, that would be the common, maybe it would be music actually. That's more likely. It wouldn't be language. It would be art that they would communicate. But you know, I do believe that we have, I'm with Stephen Wolfram on this a little bit, that to me, computation, like programs we write, that, you know, that they're kind of intelligent creatures and I feel like we haven't found the common language to talk with them. Like our little creations that are artificial are not born with whatever that innate thing that produces language without saying, like coming up with mechanisms for communicating with them is an effort that feels like it will produce some incredible discoveries. You can even think of, if you think that math has discovered, mathematics in itself is a kind of... Oh yeah, it's an innate construction of the world we live in. I think we are, you know, a part of the way there because pre-1950, right, computers were human beings that would carry out arithmetic, right? And I think it was Ulam, who worked in Los Alamos at the time, like towards the end of the second world war, wrote something about how, you know, in the future, right, computers will not be just arithmetic tool, but will be truly an interactive, you know, thing with which you could do experiments, right? At the time, the notion of doing an experiment, not like in the lab with some beakers, but an experiment on a computer, designing an experiment, a numerical experiment, was a new one. That's like, you know, 70% of what I do is I design, you know, I write code, terrible code to be clear, like, but, you know, I write code that creates an experiment, which is a simulation. So in that sense, I think we're beginning to interact with the computer in a way that you're saying, not as just a, you know, fancy calculator, not as just a, you know, call and request type of thing, but, you know, something that can generate insights that are otherwise completely unattainable, right? They're unattainable by doing analytical mathematics. Yeah, and there's, with AlphaFold 2, we're now trying, we're now starting to crack open biology, so being able to simulate at first trivial biological systems and hopefully down the line complex biological systems. My hope is to be able to simulate psychological, like sociological systems, like humans. You know, a large part of my work at MIT was on autonomous vehicles, and the fascinating thing to me was about pedestrians, human pedestrians interacting with autonomous vehicles and simulating those systems without murdering humans will be very useful, but nevertheless is exceptionally difficult. I would say so. When is my Mustang going to drive itself? Right. I'm not even joking. It looks like, yeah. It turns out it's much more difficult than we imagined. And I suppose that's the kind of, the progress of science is just like, you know, going to Mars, it's probably going to turn out to be way more difficult than we imagined. Sending out probes to investigate planet nine at the edge of our solar system might turn out to be way more difficult than we imagined, but we do it anyway. We figure it out in the end. It's actually Mars is a great, I mean, going, sending humans to Mars, way more complicated than sending humans to the moon. You'd think just like naively, both are in space, who cares? Like, if you go there, why don't you go there? You know, this life support is an extremely expensive thing. Yeah. There's a bunch of extra challenges, but I disagree with you. I would be one of the early people to go. I used to think not. I used to think I'd be one of the first maybe million to go once you have a little bit of a society. I think I'm upgrading myself to the first like 10,000. That's right. Front of the cabin. Not completely front, but like it would be interesting to die. I'm okay with death sucks, but I kind of like the idea of dying on Mars. Of all the places to die, I got to say in this regard, like I don't want to die on Mars. You don't. No, no, I would much rather die on Earth. I mean, death is fundamentally boring, right? Like death is a very boring experience. I mean, I've never died before, so I don't know from firsthand experience. As far as you know. Yeah. You could be reincarnation, all those kinds of things. So you mean, where would you die if you had to choose? Oh man. Okay. So I would definitely, there's a question of who I'd want to die with. I'd prefer not to die alone, but like surrounded by family would be preferable. Where? I think Northern New Mexico. And I'm not even joking. This is not a random place. It's just like- Would that be your favorite place on Earth? Not necessarily like favorite place on Earth to reside at indefinitely, but it is one of the most beautiful places I've ever been to. So there's something attractive about going- Returning to nature in a beautiful place. Let me ask you about another aspect of your life that is full of beauty, music. Okay. You're a musician. The absurd question I have to ask, what is the greatest song of all time? Objectively speaking. The greatest song of all time. I suppose that could change moment to moment, day to day. But if you were forced to answer for this particular moment in your life, that's something that pops to mind. This could be both philosophically, this could be technically as a musician, like what you enjoy, maybe lyrics. Like for me, lyrics is very important. So I would probably, my choice would be lyrics based. I don't want to answer in terms of just technical prowess. I think technical prowess is impressive, right? It's just like, it's impressive what can be done. I wouldn't place that into the category of the greatest music ever written. Some classical music that's written is undeniably beautiful, but I don't want to consider that category of music either. Just because, so if I have to limit the scope of this philosophical discussion to the kind of music that I listen to, probably What's My Age Again by Blink 182. It's just, it's a solid one. It's got, you know. Said nobody ever. That's a good song. I don't know if you're joking. No, no, I am joking. It's a good one, but it's, yeah. I was thinking back as a close second. What's My Age Again? Oh yeah. No, I mean, it would probably, songwriting wise, I think The Beatles came pretty close to- Were they influential to you? Absolutely. Like The Beatles? Yeah. Love The Beatles. I love The Beatles. Let It Be Yesterday. Yeah. Like Strawberry, I think Strawberry Fields Forever is one of, you know what one of my favorite Beatles songs is? It's, you know, In My Life, right? That song, it's hard to imagine how whatever 24 year old wrote that. It is one of the most introspective pieces of music ever. You know, I'm a huge Pink Floyd fan. And so I think, you know, if you were to, you can sort of look at the entire Dark Side of the Moon album and as, you know, getting pretty close up there to the pinnacle of what, you know, can be created. So, you know, Time's a great song. Yeah. It's a great song. There's just the entirety of just the instruments, the lyrics, the feeling created by a song. Like Pink Floyd can create feelings, the entire experience. I mean, you have that with The Wall of just transporting you into another place. Songs don't, not many songs could do that as well. Not many artists can do that as well as Pink Floyd did. There are a lot of bands that you can kind of say, oh yeah, like if you take Blink-182, right? If you have no idea, like if you are listening to sort of that type of pop punk for the first time, it's difficult to differentiate between Blink-182 and like Sum 41 and the thousand of other like lesser known bands that all sounded, they all had that sparkling production feel. They all kind of sounded the same, right? When with Pink Floyd, it's hard to find another band that you're like, well, is this one Pink Floyd? Like, you know, when you're listening to Pink Floyd, what you're listening to. That's fascinating. The uniqueness, that's fascinating. You know, in the calculation of the greatest song in the greatest band of all time, you could probably, you probably actually quantify this like scientifically is like how unique, if you play different songs, how well are people able to recognize whether it's this band or not? And that, you know, that's probably a huge component to greatness. Like if the world would miss it, if it was gone. Yes. Yes. So, but there's also the human story things like I would say, I'll put Johnny Cash's cover of Hurt as one of the greatest songs of all time. And that has less to do with the song, but your interaction with it, interaction with it, but also the human, the full story of the human. So like, it's not just, if I just heard the song, it'd be like, okay, that, but if it's the full story of it, also the video component for that particular song. So like that, you can't discount the full experience of it. Absolutely. You know, I have no confusion about not, about being, you know, anywhere, you know, in that lean, but I just, like, sometimes think about, you know, music that is being produced today feels, oftentimes feels like, like kind of clothes, like clothes that you buy at like H&M and you wear it three times before they rip and you throw away. So like, so much of it is, it's not bad. It's just kind of forgettable, right? Like the fact that we're talking about Pink Floyd in 2021 is in itself an interesting question. Why are we talking about Pink Floyd? And it's, there's something unforgettable about them and unforgettable about the art that they created. That could be the markets that like, so Spotify's created this kind of market where the incentives for creating music that lasts is much lower because there's so much more music. You just want something that shines bright for a short amount of time, makes a lot of money and moves on. And I mean, the same thing you see with the news and all those kinds of things, we're just living in a world where music is so much more than just living in a shorter and shorter, shorter like a time scale in terms of our attention spans. And that, nevertheless, when we look at the long arc of history of music, perhaps there will be some songs from today that will last as much as Pink Floyd. We're just unable to see it. Yeah, just the collected works of Nickelback. Exactly. You never know. You never know Justin Bieber, it could have, it could be a contender. I've recently started listening to Justin Bieber just to understand what people are talking about. You know, I'll just keep my comments to myself on that one. It's too good to explain in words. The words cannot capture the greatness that is the Biebs. You as a musician, so you write your own music, you play guitar, you sing. Maybe can you give an overview of the role music has played in your life? You're one of the, you're a world-class scientist. And so it's kind of fascinating to see somebody in your position who was also a great musician and still loves playing music. Yeah, well, I wouldn't call myself a great musician. I think, you know. One of the best of all time. That's right. Like we were saying offline, confidence is like the most essential thing about being a rock star. Exactly. It's the confidence and kind of like moodiness, right? Yeah. Yeah, look, I mean, music plays an absolutely essential role in everything I do because I lose, if I stop playing for one reason or another, say I'm traveling, I notably lose creativity in every other aspect of my life, right? I don't view playing music as a separate endeavor from doing science or doing whatever. It's all part of that same creative thing, which is distinct from, I don't know, pressing a button or like, you know. So it's not a break from science. It's a part of your science. It's absolutely, it's a part of, it's, I would say, you know, it's a thing that enables the science, right? The science would, you know, suck even more than it does already without the music. And that means like the creating of the, the writing of the music, or is it just even playing other people's stuff? Is it the whole of it? Yeah, it's definitely both. Yeah, and also just, you know, I love to play guitar, I love to sing, you know, my wife tolerates my, my screeching singing, you know, and even kind of likes it. Yeah, so people should check out your stuff. You have a great voice. So I love, I love your stuff. Is there something you're, you're super busy? Is there something you could say about practicing for musicians, for guitar, for you're also in a band? So like that whole, how you can manage that? Is there some tricks or some hacks to being a lifelong musician while being like super busy? So I would say, you know, the way that I optimize my life is I try to, I try to do, you know, the thing that I'm passionate about in a moment and put that at the top of the priority list. There are moments when, you know, you just, you feel inspired to play music. And if you're in the middle of something, if you can avoid, if that can be put on hold, just do it, right? There are times when you get inspired about something scientific. You know, I do my best to drop everything, go into that, you know, mode of that isolated mode and execute upon that. So it's a chaotic, you know, I think I have a pretty chaotic lifestyle where I'm always doing kind of multiple things and jumping between what I'm doing. But at the end of the day, it's not like, you know, those moments of inspiration are actually kind of rare, right? Like most of the time, all of us are just doing kind of, doing the stuff that needs to get done. If you do the disservice to yourself of saying, oh, I'm inspired to, you know, do this calculation, figure this out, but I've got to answer email or just like do something silly. You know, that is nothing more than disservice. And also like I have some social media presence, but I mostly stay off of, you know, social media to, you know, just frankly, cause like, I don't enjoy the mental cycles that it takes over. Yeah, it robs you of that. Yeah, those precious moments that could be filled with inspiration in your other pursuits. But there's something to maybe you and I are different in this. Like I try to play at least 10 minutes of guitar every day, almost on the technical side. Like keeping that base of basic competence going. And I mean, the same way like writers will get in front of a paper, no matter what that kind of thing. It just feels like that for my life has been essential to the daily ritual of it. Otherwise days turn into weeks, weeks turn into months, and you haven't played guitar for months. No, no, I understand. For me, I think it's been like, if we have a gig coming up, we'll definitely- You mean deadlines. Yeah, that's right. No, like we will sharpen up definitely, you know, especially coming up to a gig. It's like, you know, we're not trying to make money with this. This is like just for that satisfaction of doing something and doing something well, right? But overall, I think overall, I would say most, I play guitar most days, most days. And, you know, when I put kids to sleep, I play guitar, you know, with them and we like just make up random songs about, you know, about our cat or something, you know, like we just do kind of random stuff. But, you know, music is always involved in that process. Yeah, keeping it fun. You have Russian roots? I sure do. Were you born in Russia? I was, yeah. When did you come here? So, I came to the US in the very end of 99, but so I was like almost 14 years old. But along the way, we spent six years in Japan. So like we moved from Russia to Japan in 94 and then to the US in 99. So then like elementary school. Oh, interesting. School in Japan. So elementary school in Japan. Yeah. So that's interesting, do you still speak Russian? Sure. Okay. Do you speak Russian? Yes, of course. Okay, maybe I'll, let me ask you in Russian, what do you remember about Russia? It'd be interesting to hear you speak Russian. Yeah, well, I remember, I mean, I was eight when we left. And of course, how to say, I remember everything in the first year, including the transition, like 91, 92, this turbulent period, and then 93. And I also remember very well how at some point Pepsi Cola appeared first, and then Coca Cola appeared. I remember I was six years old, and I thought, how can it be that Coca Cola stole the product and did the same thing? I never, I thought for a long time that Pepsi and Coca Cola were invented in like 92. So for people who don't speak Russian, Konstantin was talking about basically his first in 1992 interaction with capitalism, which is Pepsi. And at first he discovered Pepsi, and then he discovered Coke, and he was confused how such theft could occur. Yeah, like an intellectual property theft. And remember, Pepsi arrived to the Soviet Union first. And there's some complicated story, which I don't quite understand the details of. For a while, Pepsi commanded submarines or something. Yeah, Pepsi had like a fleet of Soviet submarines. They were sponsoring tanks and this fessing. And I remember there's certain things that trickled in, like McDonald's, I remember that was a big deal. Oh yeah, I remember. Absolutely. So we went to McDonald's, and we stood, I mean, this is absurd, right, from kind of looking at it from today's perspective, but we stood in line for like six hours to get into this McDonald's. And I remember inside, it was just like a billion people, and I'm just taking a bite out of that Big Mac. I'm like, wow. What was it, an incredible experience for you? So like, what does this taste of the West like? Did you enjoy it? I enjoyed the fact that, I mean, this is like, this is getting into the weeds, but I really enjoyed the fact that the top of the bun had those seeds, you know, like, and I remember how on the commercials, like the Big Mac would kind of bounce. I was like, the seeds, how do they inject the seeds into the bread? Like, amazing, right? So I think it was- Artistry. You enjoyed the artistry of the culinary experience. Exactly. It was the, you know, it was the food art that is the Big Mac. Actually, I still don't know the answer to that. How do they get the sesame seeds on the bun? It's better to not know the answer. You just wander the mystery of it all. Yeah, I remember it being exceptionally delicious, but I'm with you. I don't know, you didn't mention how transformative Pepsi was, but to me, basically sugar-based stuff, like Pepsi was, or Coke, I don't remember which one we partook in, but that was an incredible experience. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. No, absolutely. And, you know, I think it was an important and formative period. I sometimes, I guess, rely on that a little bit, you know, in my daily life, because I remember, like, the early 90s were real rough, you know, like, my parents were kind of on the bottom of the spectrum in terms of, you know, in terms of financial wellbeing. So kind of like just when I run into trouble, not like, you know, money trouble, just any kind of trouble these days, it just kind of is not particularly meaningful when you compare it to that turbulent time of the early 90s. And the other thing is, I think there's like an advantage to being, you know, an immigrant, which is that you go through the mental exercise of changing your environment completely early in your life, right? You go, it's by no means, you know, pleasant in the moment, right? But like going into Japanese elementary school, right? Like, I didn't go to some like private, you know, thing. I just went to a regular, like, Japanese public elementary school, and that was the non-Japanese person in my class. So just like the learning Japanese and just kind of... So that's a super humbling experience in many ways, was when you like made fun of all that kind of stuff, being the outsider. Oh, absolutely. But, you know, you kind of do that, and then you kind of then you just kind of are okay with stuff, you know what I mean? And so like doing that again in middle school in the US, it was arguably easy because I was like, yeah, well, I've already done this before. So I think it kind of prepares you mentally a little bit for switching up, for whatever, you know, changes that will come up for the rest of your life. So I wouldn't trade that experience really for anything. It's a huge aspect of who I am, and I'm sure you can relate to a lot of this. Yes. Is there advice from your life that you can give to young people today, high school, college, you know, about their career or maybe about life in general? I'm not like a career coach by... A life coach. Right, like I'm definitely not a life coach. I don't have it all figured out. But I think there's a perpetual cycle of, you know, thinking that there is a... There's kind of like a template for success, right? Maybe there is, but in my experience, I haven't seen it, right? You know, I would say people in high school, right? So much of their focus is on getting straight A's, filling their CV with this and this and this, so that it looks impressive, right? That is not, I think, a good way to optimize your life, right? Do the thing that fills your life with passion. Do the thing that fills your life with interest, and, you know, do that perpetually, right? A straight A student, you know, is really impressive, but also, you know, somewhat boring, right? So I think, you know, injection of more of that kind of interest into the lives of young people would go a long way in just both upping their level of happiness and then just kind of ensuring that, looking forward, they're not suffering from a perpetual condition of, oh, I have to satisfy these, like, you know, check boxes to do well, right? Because you can lose yourself in that whole process for the rest of your life, but it's nice if it's possible, like Max Tegmark was exceptionally good at this at MIT, figure out how you can spend a small part of your time, you know, in the world, your percent of your efforts that such that your CV looks really impressive. Yeah, absolutely. There's no, like, without a doubt, like, that's a baseline that you need to have. And then spend, so like, spend most of your time doing, like, amazing things you're passionate about, but such that it kind of like Planet 9 produces objects that feed your CV, like, slowly over time. So getting good grades in high school, maybe doing extracurricular activities, or or in terms of, like, you know, for programmers that's producing code that you can show up on GitHub, like, leaving traces, like, throughout your efforts such that your CV looks impressive to the rest of the world. In fact, I mean, this is somewhat along the lines of what I'm talking about. We see, like, getting, like, good grades is important, but grades are not a tangible, like, product. Right. Like, you cannot out, you know, show your A and have your A live a separate life from you. Code very much does, right? Music very much takes on, you know, provided somebody else listens to it, right? Provide, like, takes on a life of its own. That's kind of what I mean, right? Doing, doing stuff that can then get separated from you is exceptionally attractive, right? It's like a fun and... And it's also very impressive to others. I think we're moving to a world where grades mean less and less, like, certifications mean less and less. If you look at, especially again, in the computing fields, getting a degree, finishing your, currently just finishing your degree, whether it's bachelor's or master's or PhD, is less important than the things you've actually put out into the world. Right, right. And that's a fascinating kind of... That's great that, in that sense, the meritocracy is in its richest, most beautiful form is starting to win out. Yeah, it's weird, because, like, you know, my understanding, and I'm not, like, I don't know the history of science well enough to speak very confidently about this, but, you know, the advisor of my advisor, of my advisor from undergrad, like, didn't have a PhD. Right, so I think it was a more common thing back in the day, even in the academic sector, to, you know, not have, you know, Faraday, like, Faraday didn't know algebra, right, and drew diagrams about, you know, magnetic fields, and, like, his Faraday's law was derived entirely from intuition. So, it is interesting to how the world of academia has evolved into a, you gotta do this and then get PhD, then you have to postdoc once and twice and maybe thrice, and then, like, you move on. So, you know, it does, I do wonder, you know, if we're, you know, if there's a better, I think we're heading there, but it's a fascinating historical perspective, like, that we might have just tried this whole thing out for a while, where we put a lot more emphasis on grades and certificates and degrees and all those kinds of things. I think the difference historically is, like, we can actually, using the internet, show off the, show off ourselves and our creations better and better and more effectively, whether that's code or producing videos or all those kinds of things. That's right. You can become a certified drone pilot. Of all the things you want to pick, yeah, for sure. Or you could just fly and make YouTube videos against hundreds of thousands of views with your drone and it would never be a problem. And then, you know, you can make videos against hundreds of thousands of views with your drone and never getting a certificate. That's probably illegal. Don't do it. What do you think is the meaning of this whole thing? So, you look at planets. They seem to orbit stuff without asking the why question. And for some reason, life emerged on Earth such that it led to big brains that can ask the big why question. I think there's an answer to it. I'm not sure what the question is. Meaning of life? The meaning of life. It's 42. It's 42. Yeah. But, you know, aside from that, it's, you know, why, I think if the question you're asking is like, why we do all this, right? Why we do all this. It's part of the human condition, right? Human beings are fundamentally, I feel like, sort of stochastic and fundamentally interested in kind of expanding our own understanding of the world around us. And creating stuff to enable that understanding. So we're like stochastic, fundamentally stochastic. So like there's just a bunch of randomness that really doesn't seem like it has a good explanation. And yet there's a kind of direction to our being that we just keep wanting to create and to understand. That's right. I've met people that claim to be anti-science, right? And yet in their anti-science discussion, I'm like, well, like, if you're so, you know, scientific, then why don't you explain to me how, I don't know, this works. And like it always, there's that fundamental seed of curiosity and interest that is common to all of us. That is absolutely what makes us human, right? And I'm in a privileged position of being able to, you know, to have that be my job, right? I think as, you know, as time evolves forward, you know, the kind of economy changes, I mean, we're already starting to see, you know, a shift towards that type of, you know, creative enterprise as being, as emerging, taking over a bigger and bigger chunk of the sector. It's not yet, I think, the dominant portion of the economy by any account, but if we compare this to like, you know, the time when the dominant thing you would do would be to, you know, go to a factory and do the same exact thing, right? I think, you know, there's a tide there and things are sort of headed in that direction. Yeah, life's becoming more and more fun. I can't wait. Honestly, what happens next? You can't wait to just chill. Just chill. The terminal point of this is you just chill and wait for those Kuiper Belt objects to complete one orbit. I'm going to credit you with this idea. I do hope that we definitively discover a proof that there is a Planet Nine out there in the next few years so you can sit back with a cigar or a cigarette or vodka or wine and just say, I told you so. That's already happening. I'm going to do that later today. As I mentioned, confidence is essential to being a rock star. I really appreciate you explaining so many fascinating things to me today. I really appreciate the work that you do out there and I really appreciate you talking with me today. It was a pleasure. Thanks for having me on. Thanks for listening to this conversation with Konstantin Batygin and thank you to Squarespace, Literati, Onnit, and Ni. Check them out in the description to support this podcast. Now, let me leave you with some words from Douglas Adams in The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy. Far out in the uncharted backwaters of the unfashionable end of the western spiral arm of the galaxy lies a small, unregarded yellow sun. Orbiting this at a distance of roughly 92 million miles is an utterly insignificant little blue-green planet whose ape-descendant lifeforms are so amazingly primitive that they still think digital watches are a pretty neat idea. Thank you for listening and hope to see you next time.
 The following is a conversation with Kostantin Batygin, planetary astrophysicist at Caltech,
 interested in, among other things, the search for the distant, the mysterious Planet Nine,
 in the outer regions of our solar system. Quick mention of our sponsors,
 Squarespace, Litterati, Onnit, and NI. Check them out in the description to support this podcast.
 As a side note, let me say that our little sun is orbited by not just a few planets in the planetary
 region, but trillions of objects in the Kuiper Belt and the Oort Cloud that extends over three
 light years out. This to me is amazing, since Proxima Centauri, the closest star to our sun,
 is only 4.2 light years away. And all of it is mostly covered in darkness. When I get a chance
 to go out swimming in the ocean far from the shore, I'm sometimes overcome by the terrifying
 and the exciting feeling of not knowing what's there in the deep darkness. That's how I feel
 about the edge of our solar system. One day, I hope humans will travel there. Or at the very least,
 AI systems that carry the flame of human consciousness. This is the Lux Freebin Podcast,
 and here's my conversation with Kostantin Batygin.
 What is Planet Nine? Planet Nine is an object that we believe lives in the solar system beyond the
 orbit of Neptune. It orbits the sun with a period of about 10,000 years and is about five Earth
 masses. So that's a hypothesized object. There's some evidence for this kind of object. There's a
 bunch of different explanations. Can you give like an overview of the planets and how they
 the planets in our solar system, how many are there? What do we know and not know about them
 at a high level? All right. That sounds like a good plan. So look, the solar system
 basically is comprised of two parts, the inner and the outer solar system. The inner solar system
 has the planets Mercury, Venus, Earth, and Mars. Now Mercury is about 40% of the orbital separation
 of where the Earth is. It's closer to the sun. Venus is about 70%. Then Mars is about 160%
 further away from the sun than is the Earth. These planets that we, one of them we occupy,
 right, are pretty small. They're two leading order sort of heavily overgrown asteroids, if you will.
 Okay. This becomes evident when you move out further in the solar system and encounter Jupiter,
 which is 316 Earth masses, right, 10 times the size. Saturn is another huge one. 90 Earth masses
 at about 10 times the separation from the sun as is the Earth. Then you have Uranus and Neptune
 at 20 and 30 respectively. For a long time, that is where the kind of massive part of the solar
 system ended. But what we've learned in the last 30 years is that beyond Neptune, there's this
 expansive field of icy debris, a second icy asteroid belt in the solar system. A lot of people
 have heard of the asteroid belt, which lives between Mars and Jupiter, right? That's a pretty
 common thing that people like to imagine and draw on lunch boxes and stuff. But beyond Neptune,
 there's a much more massive and much more radially expansive field of debris. Pluto, by the way,
 it belongs to that second icy asteroid belt, which we call the Kuiper belt. It's just a big object
 within that population of bodies. Pluto, the planet. Pluto, the dwarf planet, the former planet.
 Why is Pluto not a planet anymore? I mean, it's tiny. We used to-
 The size matters when it comes to planets. Oh, 100%. It's actually a fascinating story.
 When Pluto was discovered in 1930, the reason it was discovered in the first place is because
 astronomers at the time were looking for a seven Earth mass planet somewhere beyond Neptune. It was
 hypothesized that such an object exists. When they found something, they interpreted that as a seven
 Earth mass planet and immediately revised its mass downward because they couldn't resolve the object
 with the telescope. So it looked like just a point mass star rather than a physical disk.
 They said, well, maybe it's not seven, maybe it's one. Then over the next, I guess, 40 years,
 Pluto's mass kept getting revised downwards, downwards, downwards until it was realized that
 it's like 500 times less massive than the Earth. I mean, Pluto's surface area is almost perfectly
 equal to the surface area of Russia, actually. Russia is big, but it's not a planet.
 Well, I mean, actually we can touch more on that.
 That's another discussion. So in some sense, earlier in the century, Pluto represented
 our ignorance about the edges of the solar system. And perhaps Planet Nine is the thing
 that represents our ignorance about now the modern set of ignorances about the edges of
 our solar system. That's a good way to put it.
 By the way, just imagining this belt of astro of debris at the edge of our solar system is
 incredible. Can you talk about it a little bit? What is the Kuiper belt and what is the Oort cloud?
 Yeah. Okay. So look, the simple way to think about it is that if you imagine,
 you know, Neptune's orbit like a circle, right? Kind of maybe a factor of one and a half, 1.3 times bigger
 on a radius of 1.3 times bigger, you've got a whole collection of icy objects. Most of these objects
 are sort of the size of Austin, you know, maybe a little bit smaller. If you then zoom out,
 right, and explore the orbits of the most long period Kuiper belt object, these are the things
 that have the biggest orbits and take the longest time to go around the sun. Then what you find is
 that beyond a critical orbit size, beyond a critical orbit period, which is about 4,000 years,
 you start to see weird structure, like all the orbits sort of point into one direction. And all
 the orbits are kind of tilted in the same way by about 20 degrees with respect to sun. This is
 particularly pronounced in orbits that are not heavily affected by Neptune. So there you start
 to see this weird dichotomy where there are objects which are stable, which Neptune does not mess with,
 gravitationally, and unstable objects. The unstable objects are basically all over the place
 because they're being kicked around by Neptune. The stable orbits show this remarkable pattern
 of clustering. We, back I guess five years ago, interpreted this pattern of clustering as a
 gravitational one-way sign, the existence of a planet in a distant planet, right, something that
 is shepherding and confining these orbits together. Of course, right, you have to have some skepticism
 when you're talking about these things. You have to ask the question of, okay, how statistically
 significant is this clustering? And there are many authors that have indeed called that into question.
 We have done our own analyses. And basically, just like with all statistics where there's kind of
 multiple ways to do the exercise, you can either ask the question of, if I have a telescope that has
 surveyed this part of the sky, what are the chances that I would discover this clustering?
 That basically tells you that you have zero confidence, right? That does not give you
 a confident answer one way or another. Another way to do the statistics, which is what we prefer
 to do, is to say, we have a whole night sky of discoveries in the Kuiper belt, right? And if we
 have some object over there, which has right ascension and declination, which is a way to say
 it's there on the sky, and it has some brightness, that means somebody looked over there and
 discovered an object of, was able to discover an object of that brightness or brighter. Through
 that analysis, you can construct a whole map on the sky of kind of where all of the surveys that
 have ever been done have collectively looked. So if you do the exercise this way, the false alarm
 probability of the clustering on which the Planet Nine hypothesis is built is about 0.4%.
 Wow. Okay. So there's a million questions here. One, when you say bright objects, why are they
 bright? Are we talking about actual objects within the Kuiper belt or the stuff we see through the
 Kuiper belt? This is the actual stuff we see in the Kuiper belt. The way you go about discovering
 Kuiper belt objects, pretty easy. I mean, it's easy in theory, right? Hard in practice. All you
 do is you take snapshots of the sky, right? Choose that object, and you can do that.
 Snapshots of the sky, right? Choose that direction and take the high exposure snapshot. Then you
 wait a night and you do it again, and then you wait another night and you do it again.
 Objects that are just random stars in the galaxy don't move on the sky, whereas objects in the
 solar system will slowly move. This is no different than if you're driving down the freeway,
 it looks like trees are going by you faster than the clouds, right? This is parallax.
 That's it. It's just they're reflecting light off of the sun, and it's going back and hitting this.
 There's a little bit of a glimmer from the different objects that you can see based on
 the reflection from the sun. So there's actual light, it's not darkness.
 That's right. These are just big icicles basically that are just reflecting sunlight back at you.
 It's then easy to understand why it's so hard to discover them because light has to travel to
 something like 40 times the distance between the earth and the sun and then get reflected back.
 Was that like an hour travel?
 Yeah, that's right. That's something like that because the earth to the sun is eight minutes,
 I believe.
 And so something, you know, hours.
 Yeah, in that order of magnitude. So that's interesting. So you have to account for all of
 that. And then there's a huge amount of data, pixels that are coming from the pictures. And you
 have to integrate all of that together to paint a sort of like a high estimate of the different
 objects. Can you track them? Can you be like, that's Bob? Like, can you like?
 Yes, exactly. In fact, one of them is named Joe Biden. I mean, I'm not like this is not even a joke.
 Is there a Trump one or no?
 No, no. I don't know. I haven't seen that one.
 I haven't checked for that. But like, the way it works is if you discover one, you right away get a
 license plate for it. OK, so like the first four numbers is the first year that this object has
 appeared on, you know, in the data set, if you will. And then there's like this code that follows
 it, which basically tells you where in the sky it is. Right. So one of the really interesting
 Kuiper Belt objects, which is very much part of the Planet Nine stories called VP 113,
 because Joe Biden was vice president at the time, you know, got nicknamed Biden.
 VP 113, you said?
 Yeah.
 He got nicknamed Biden. Beautiful. What's the fingerprint for any particular object? Like, how
 do you know it's the same one? Or you just kind of like, yeah, from night to night, you take a
 picture. How do you know it's the same object? Yeah. So the way you know is it appears in almost
 exactly the same part of the sky except for moves. But this is why actually you need at least three
 nights, because oftentimes asteroids, which are much closer to the Earth, like will appear
 to move only slightly, but then on the third night will move away. So that third night is really
 there to detect acceleration. Now, the thing that I didn't really realize until, you know, I started
 observing together with my partner in crime in all this, Mike Brown, is just the fact that for the
 first year when you make these detections, the only thing you really know with confidence is where it
 is on the night sky and how far away it is. Okay? That's it. You don't know anything about the orbit
 because over three days, the object just moves so little, right? That whole motion on the sky is
 entirely coming from motion of the Earth, right? So the Earth is kind of the car, the object is the
 tree and you see it move. So then to get some confident information about what its orbit looks
 like, you have to come back a year later and then measure it again. Oh, interesting. So do three
 nights, then come back a year later and do another three nights. So you get the velocity, the
 acceleration from the three nights and then you have the, maybe the additional formation. Because
 an orbit is basically described by six parameters. So you at least need six independent points, but
 in reality, you need many more observations to really pin down the orbit well. And from that,
 you're able to construct for that one particular object and orbit. And then there's of course,
 like how many objects are there? There's like four-ish thousand now. But like the, in the future,
 that could be like millions. Oh, sure. Oh, sure. So in fact, these things are hard to predict,
 but there's a new observatory called the Vera Rubin Observatory, which is coming online,
 maybe next year. I mean, with COVID, these things are a little bit more uncertain, but they've
 actually been making great progress with construction. And so that telescope is just
 going to sort of scan the night sky every day automatically. And it's such an efficient survey
 that it might increase the census of the distant Kuiper belt, the things that I'm interested in,
 by a factor of a hundred. I mean, that would be really cool.
 And yeah, that's an incredible-
 I mean, they might just find planet nine.
 Like almost like literally pictures, like visually.
 I mean, sure. Yeah. Like the first detection you make, all you know is where it is in the sky and
 how far away it is. If something is 500 times away from the sun, as far away from the sun as the
 earth, you know that's planet nine. That's when the story concludes. Then you can study it.
 Now you can study it. Yeah. By the way, I'm going to use that as like, I don't know,
 a pickup line or a dating strategy, like see the person for three days and then don't see them at
 all. And then see them again in a year to determine the orbit. And over time you figure out if
 sort of from a cosmic perspective, this whole thing,
 Yeah. I have no dating advice to give.
 I was going to use this as a metaphor to somehow map it onto the human condition. Okay. You mentioned
 the Kuiper belt. What's the Oort cloud? If you look at the Neptune orbit as one, then the Kuiper
 belt is like 1.3 out there. And then we get farther and farther into the darkness. What's the Oort cloud?
 So, okay. You've got the main Kuiper belt, which is about say 1.3.
 1.5. Then you have something called the scattered disc, which is kind of an extension of the Kuiper
 belt. It's a bunch of these long, very elliptical orbits that hug the orbit of Neptune, but come
 out very far. So that, the scattered disc with the current senses, like some of the longest orbits
 we know of have a semi-major axis. So half the orbit length, roughly speaking, of about a thousand,
 thousand times the distance between the earth and the sun. Wow. Now, if you keep moving out,
 okay, eventually once you're at sort of, you know, 10,000 to 100,000 roughly, that's where the Oort
 cloud is. Now, the Oort cloud is a distinct population of icy bodies and it's distinct from
 the Kuiper belt. In fact, it's so expansive that it ends roughly halfway between us and the next
 star. Its edge is just dictated by to what extent does the solar gravity reach? Solar gravity reaches
 that far? Yeah. So it has to, wow. Yeah. In fact, imagining this is a little bit overwhelming. So
 there's like a giant, like vast icy rock thingy. It's like a sphere. It's like, you know, it's like
 it's almost spherical structure that engulfs, that encircles the sun and all the long pieces of
 the sun and all the long period comets come from the Oort cloud. They come the way that they appear.
 I mean, for already, I don't know, hundreds of years, we've been detecting occasionally like
 a comet will come in and it seemingly comes out of nowhere. The reason these long period comets
 appear that on very, very long time scales, right? These Oort cloud objects that are sitting, you
 know, 30,000 times as far away from the sun as is the earth actually interact with the gravity of
 the galaxy, the tide, effectively the tide that the galaxy exerts upon them and their orbits slowly
 change and they elongate to the point where once they, their closest approach to the sun starts to
 reach a critical distance where ice starts to sublimate, then we discover them as comets,
 because then the ice comes off of them. They look beautiful on the night sky, et cetera,
 but they're all coming from, you know, really, really far away.
 So is there, are any of them coming our way from collisions? Like how many collisions are there?
 Or is there a bunch of space for them to move around?
 Yeah, there's zero. It's completely collisionless. Out there, the physical radii of objects are so
 small compared to the distance between them, right? It's just, it is truly a collisionless
 environment. I don't know. I think that probably in the age of the solar system,
 there have literally been zero collisions in the Oort cloud.
 Wow. When you like draw a picture of the solar system, everything's really close together. So
 everything, I guess, here's spaced far apart. Do rogue planets like flying every once in a while
 and join? Not rogue planets, but rogue objects from out there.
 Oh, sure. Oh, sure. Yeah.
 Join the party?
 Yeah, absolutely. We've seen a couple of them in the last three or so years, maybe four years now.
 The first one was the one called O'omu'omua. It's been all over the news. The second one was
 comet Borisov discovered by a guy named Borisov. Yeah, so the way you know they're coming from
 elsewhere is unlike solar system objects, which travel on elliptical paths around the sun, these
 guys travel on hyperbolic paths. So they come in, say hello, and then they're gone. And the fact that
 they exist is totally not surprising. Neptune is constantly ejecting Kuiper belt objects
 into interstellar space. Our solar system itself is sort of leaking icy debris and ejecting it. So
 presumably planetary systems around other stars do exactly the same thing.
 Let me ask you about the millions of objects that are part of the Kuiper belt and part of
 the Oro cloud. Do you think some of them have primitive life? It kind of makes you sad
 if there's like primitive life there and they're just kind of like lonely out there in space.
 Like how many of them do you think have life, like bacterial life?
 Probably a negligible amount. Zero, you know, like zero with like a plus on top.
 Zero plus plus.
 Yeah. So, you know, if you and I took a little trip to the interstellar medium,
 I think we would develop cancer and die real fast, right?
 That's rough.
 Yeah. It's a pretty hostile radiation environment. You don't actually have to go to the interstellar
 medium. You just have to leave the earth's magnetic field too. And then you're not doing
 so well suddenly. So, you know, this idea of, you know, life kind of traveling between places,
 it's not entirely implausible, but you really have to twist, I think, a lot of parameters.
 One of the problems we have is we don't actually know how life originates, right? So it's kind of
 a second order question of survival in the interstellar medium and how resilient it is,
 because we think you require water, and that's certainly the case for the earth, but, you know,
 we really don't know for sure. That said, I will argue that the question of like,
 are there aliens out there is a very boring question, because the answer is of course there are.
 Right. I mean, like, we know that there are planets around almost every star.
 Of course there are other life forms. Life is not some specific thing that happened on the earth,
 and that's it, right? That's a statistical impossibility.
 Yeah, but the difficult question is, before even the fact that we don't know how life originates,
 I don't think we even know what life is, like, definitionally.
 Yeah.
 Like, formalizing a kind of picture of, in terms of the mechanism we would use to search for life
 out there, or even when we're on a planet, to say, is this life? Is this rock that just moved
 from where it was yesterday life? Or maybe not even a rock, something else.
 I got to tell you, I want to know what life is. Okay. And I want you to show me.
 I think there's a song to basically accompany every single thing we talk about today, and probably
 half of them are love songs. And somehow we'll integrate George Michael into the whole thing.
 Okay. So your intuition is there's life everywhere in our universe.
 Do you think there's intelligent life out there?
 I think it's entirely plausible. I mean, it's entirely plausible.
 I think there's intelligent life on earth.
 So yeah, taking that, like say, whatever this thing we've got on earth,
 whether it's dolphins or humans, say that's intelligent.
 Definitely dolphins. I mean, have you seen the dolphins?
 Well, they do some cruel stuff to each other. So if cruelty is a definition of intelligence,
 they're pretty good. And then humans are pretty good in that regard. And then there's like,
 pigs are very intelligent. I got actually a chance to hang out with pigs recently.
 And they're, aside from the fact they were trying to eat me, they're very, they love food.
 They love food, but there's an intelligence to their eyes that was kind of like haunts me
 because I also love to eat meat. And then to meet the thing I later ate, and that was very
 intelligent and almost charismatic with the way it was expressing himself, herself itself,
 was quite incredible. So all that to say is if we have intelligent life here on earth,
 if we take dolphins, pigs, humans, from the perspective of like planetary science,
 how unique is earth? Okay. So earth is not a common outcome of the planet formation process.
 It's probably something on the order of maybe a 1% effect. And by earth, I mean,
 it's not just an earth mass planet. Okay. I mean, the architecture of the solar system
 that allows the earth to exist in its kind of very temperate way. One thing to understand,
 and this is pretty crucial, right? Is that the earth itself formed well after the gas disk
 that formed the giant planets had already dissipated. You see, stars start out with
 the star and then a disk of gas and dust that encircles it. Okay. From this disk of gas and
 dust, big planets can emerge. And we have over the last two, three decades discovered
 thousands of extra solar planets as an orbit of other stars. What we see is that many of them
 are, have these expansive hydrogen helium atmospheres. The fact that the earth doesn't
 is deeply connected to the fact that earth took about a hundred million years to form.
 So we missed that train, so to speak, to get that hydrogen helium atmosphere. That's why actually
 we can see the sky, right? That's why the sky is, well, at least in most places, that's why the
 atmosphere is not completely opaque. With that kind of thinking in mind, I would argue that we're
 getting the kind of emergent pictures of the earth is not everywhere, right? There's sort of the sci-fi
 view of things where we go to some other star and we just land on random planets and they're all
 earth-like. That's totally not true. But even a low probability event, even if you imagine that
 earth is a one in a million or one in a, you know, one in 10 million occurrence, there are 10 to the
 12 stars in the galaxy, right? So you just, you always win by, by-
 Large numbers.
 That's right, by supply. They save you. Well, you've hypothesized that our solar system once
 possessed a population of short period planets that were destroyed by the evil Jupiter, migrating
 through the solar nebula. Can you explain? If I was to say, what was the kind of the key outcome
 of searches for extra solar planets? It is that most stars are encircled by short period planets
 that are, you know, a few earth masses, right? So a few times bigger than the earth and have orbital
 periods that kind of range from days to, to weeks. Now, if you go and ask the solar system, what's
 in our region, right? In that region, it's completely empty, right? It's just, it's astonishingly
 hollow. And I think, you know, from the sun is not some, you know, special star that decided that it
 was going to form the solar system. So I think, you know, the natural thing to assume is, is that
 the same processes of planet formation that occurred everywhere else also occurred in the
 solar system. Following this logic, it's not implausible to imagine that the solar system
 once possessed a system of intra-Mercurian, like, you know, compact system of, of planets. So then
 we asked ourselves, would such a system survive to this day? And the answer is no, at least our
 calculations suggest it's highly unlikely because of the formation of Jupiter. And Jupiter's
 primordial kind of wandering through the solar system would have sent this collisional field
 of debris that would have pushed that system of planets onto the sun. So was Jupiter, this
 primordial wandering, what did, what did Jupiter look like? Like, why was it wandering? It didn't
 have the orbit it has today? We're pretty certain that giant planets like Jupiter, when they form,
 they migrate. The reason they migrate is, you know, on a detailed level, perhaps difficult to
 explain, but just in a qualitative sense, they form in this fluid disk of gas and dust. So it's
 kind of like, if I plop down a raft somewhere in the ocean, will it stay where you plop it down,
 or will it kind of get carried around? It's not really a good analogy because it's not like Jupiter
 is being advected by the currents of, you know, gas and dust, but the way it migrates is it carves
 out a hole in the disk and then through, by interacting with the disk gravitationally,
 right, it can change its orbit. The fact that the solar system has both Jupiter and Saturn here
 complicates things a lot, right, because it's, you have to solve the problem of the evolution
 of the gas disk, the evolution of Jupiter's orbit in the gas disk, plus the evolution of Saturn's
 and their mutual interaction. The common outcome of solving that problem, though, is pretty easy to
 explain. Jupiter forms, its orbit shrinks, and then once Saturn forms, its orbit catches up,
 basically, to the orbit of Jupiter and then both come out. So there's this inward-outward pattern
 of Jupiter's early motion that happens sort of within the firm, within the last million years
 of the lifetime of the solar system's primordial disk. So while this is happening, if our
 calculations are correct, which I think they are, you can destroy this inner system of, you know,
 few Earth-mass planets. And then in the aftermath of all this violence, you form the terrestrial
 planets. Where would they come from in that case? So Jupiter clears out the space, and then there's
 a few terrestrial planets that come in, and those come in from the disk somewhere, like one of the
 larger objects. Yeah, what actually happens in these calculations is you leave behind a rather
 mass-depleted, like, remnant disk, only a couple Earth masses. So then from that remnant disk,
 you leave behind a remnant population, an annulus of material over 100 million years by just
 collisions. You grow the Earth and the Moon and everything else. You said annulus? Annulus.
 Annulus. Annulus, yeah. That's a beautiful word. What does that mean? Well, it's like a disk that's
 kind of thin. It's like a, yeah, it's something that is, you know, a disk that's so thin, it's almost
 like, I was going to say this reminds me of Lord of the Rings. So like, the word just feels like
 it belongs in a token. Okay, so that's incredible. And so that, in your senses, you said like 1%,
 that's a rare, the way Jupiter and Saturn danced and cleared out, you know, cleared out the short
 period of debris and then changed the gravitational landscape, that's a pretty rare thing too.
 It's rare and moreover, like, you don't even have to go to our calculations, you can just ask
 the night sky how many stars have Jupiter and Saturn analogues? And the answer is Jupiter
 and Saturn analogues are found around only 10% of Sun-like stars. So they themselves, like you
 kind of have to score an A minus or better on the test to, you know, on the planet formation test to
 become a solar system analog, even in that basic sense. And moreover, you know, lower mass stars,
 which are very numerous in the galaxy, so-called M dwarfs, think like 0% of them, well, maybe like
 a negligible fraction of them have giant planets. Giant planets are a rare, you know, outcome of
 planet formation. One of the really big problems that remain unanswered is why? We don't actually
 understand why they're so rare. How hard is it to simulate all of the things that we've been talking
 about, each of the things we've been talking about, and maybe one day all of the things we've been
 talking about and beyond, meaning like from the initial primordial solar system, you know, a bunch
 of disks with, I don't know, billions, trillions of objects in them, like simulate that such that you
 eventually get a Jupiter and a Saturn, and then eventually you get the Jupiter and the Saturn that
 clear out a disk, change the gravitational landscape, then Earth pops up, like that whole thing,
 and then be able to do that for every other system in the, every other star in the galaxy, and then
 be able to do that for other galaxies as well. Yeah, so maybe start from the smallest simulation,
 like what is actually being done today? I mean, even the smallest simulation is probably super,
 super difficult. Even just like one object in the Kuiper Belt is probably super difficult to simulate.
 I mean, I think it's super easy. I mean, like, it's just not that hard. But, you know, let's ask the
 most kind of basic problem. Okay, so the problem of having a star and something in orbit of it,
 that you don't need a simulation for, like you can just write that down on a piece of paper.
 Does gravity, what, like, yeah, I guess, I guess it's important to try to,
 you know, one way to simulate objects in our solar system is to build the universe from scratch.
 Okay, we'll get to building the universe from scratch in a sec, but let me just kind of go
 through the hierarchy of what, you know, what we do. Two objects, analytically solvable, like,
 we can figure it out very easily if you just, you know, I don't think you, yeah, you don't need to
 know calculus. It helps to know calculus, but you don't necessarily need to know calculus.
 Three objects that are gravitationally interacting, the solution is chaotic. Doesn't
 matter how many simulations you do, you, the answer loses meaning after some time.
 I feel like that is a metaphor for dating as well, but go on.
 Yeah, so the fact that you go from analytically solvable to unpredictable, you know, when you're,
 when your simulation goes from two bodies to three bodies should immediately tell you that the
 exercise of trying to engineer a calculation where you form the entire solar system from scratch
 and hope to have some predictive answer is a futile one, right? We will never
 succeed at such a simulation. So like, just to clarify, you mean like explicitly having
 a clear equation that generalizes the whole process enough to be able to make a prediction,
 or do you mean actually like literally simulating the objects is a hopeless pursuit once it increases
 beyond three? The simulating them is not a hopeless pursuit, but the outcome becomes
 a statistical one. What's actually quite interesting is I think we have all the equations
 figured out, right? Like, you know, in order to really understand this, the formation of the
 solar system suffices to know gravity and magneto hydrodynamics. I mean, like the combination of
 Maxwell's equations and, you know, Navier-Stokes equations for the fluids. You need to know
 quantum mechanics to understand the opacities and so on. But we have those equations in hand.
 It's not that we don't have that understanding. It's that putting it all together is A, very,
 very difficult, and B, if you were to run the same evolution twice, changing, you know,
 the initial conditions by some infinitesimal amount, some, you know, minor change in your
 calculation to start with, you would get a different answer. This is one, this is part of
 the reason why planetary systems are so diverse. You don't have like a, you know, very predictive
 path for you start with a disc of this mass and it's around this star. Therefore, you're going to
 form the solar system, right? You start with this and therefore you will form this huge outcome,
 huge set of outcomes and some percentage of it will resemble the solar system.
 You mentioned quantum mechanics and we're talking about cosmic scale objects. You've talked about
 that the evolution of astrophysical disks can be modeled with Schrodinger's equation.
 I sure did.
 Why? Like how does quantum mechanics become relevant at when you consider the evolution
 of objects in the solar system? Yeah, well, let me take a step back and just say it like,
 I remember being, you know, utterly confused by quantum mechanics when I first learned it.
 And the Schrodinger equation, which is kind of the parent equation of that whole field,
 you know, seems to come out of nowhere, right? The way that I was sort of explaining it,
 I remember asking, you know, my professor is like, but where does it come from? Is it like,
 well, just like, don't worry about it and just like calculate the hydrogen, you know, energy levels,
 right? So it's like, I could do all the problems. I just did not have any intuition for where this
 parent, you know, super important equation came from. Now down the line, I was, remember,
 I was preparing for my own lecture and I was trying to understand how waves travel in self-gravitating
 disks. So, you know, again, there's a very broad theory that's already developed, but I was looking
 for some simpler way to explain it really for the purposes of teaching class. And so I thought,
 okay, what if I just imagine a disk as an infinite number of concentric circles, right? That interact
 with each other gravitationally. That's a problem in some sense that I can solve using methods from
 like the late 1700s. I can write down Hamiltonian, well, I can write down the energy function,
 basically, of their interactions. And what I found is that when you take the continuum limit,
 when you go from discrete circles that are talking to each other gravitationally to a continuum
 disk, suddenly this gravitational interaction among them, right, the governing equation becomes
 the Schrödinger equation. I had to think about that for a little bit. Did you just unify quantum
 mechanics and gravity? No, this is not the same thing as like, you know, fusing relativity and
 quantum mechanics. But it did get me thinking a little bit. So the fact that waves in astrophysical
 disks behave just like wave functions of particles is kind of like an interesting analogy because for
 me it's easier to imagine waves traveling through, you know, astrophysical disks or really just sheets
 of paper. And the reason this is, that analogy exists is because there's actually nothing quantum
 about the Schrödinger equation. The Schrödinger equation is just a wave equation and all of the
 interpretation that comes from it is quantum, but the equation itself is not a quantum being.
 So you can use it to model waves. It's not turtles, it's waves all the way down. You can pick which
 level you pick the wave at. And so it could be at the solar system level that you can use.
 Right. And also it actually provides a pretty neat calculational tool because it's difficult,
 so we just talked about simulations, but it's difficult to simulate the behavior of astrophysical
 disks on time scales that are in between a few orbits and their entire evolution. So it's over
 a time scale of a few orbits, you do a hydrodynamic simulation, right? Basically that's something that
 you can do on a modern computer on a time scale of say a week. When it comes to their evolution
 over their entire lifetime, you don't hope to resolve the orbits, you just kind of hope to
 understand how the system behaves in between, right? To get access to that, as it turns out,
 it's pretty cute. You can use the Schrodinger equation to get the answer rapidly,
 so it's a calculational tool. That's fascinating. By the way,
 astrophysical disks, how broad is this definition? Okay, so astrophysical disks span a huge amount of
 ranges. They start maybe at the smallest scale, they start with actually Kuiper Belt objects.
 Some Kuiper Belt objects have rings, okay? So that's maybe the smallest example of an
 astrophysical disk. We've got this little potato-shaped asteroid, which is sort of the
 size of LA or something, and around it are some rings of icy matter. That object is a
 small astrophysical disk. Then you have Saturn, the rings of Saturn. You have the next set of
 scale, you have the solar system itself when it was forming, you have a disk. Then you have black
 hole disks, you have galaxies. Disks are super common in the universe. The reason is that stuff
 rotates. Gravity works. Those rings could be the material that composes those rings, it could be
 gas, it could be solid, it could be anything. That's right. The disk that made from which the
 planets emerged was predominantly hydrogen and helium gas. On the other hand, the rings of Saturn
 are made up of little ice cubes this big, about a centimeter across.
 That sounds refreshing. That's incredible, hydrogen and helium gas. In the beginning,
 it was just hydrogen and helium around the sun. How does that lead to the first formations of
 solid objects in terms of simulation? Okay, here's the story. Have you ever been to the desert?
 Yes, I've been to the Death Valley. Actually, it was terrifying, just total tangent, I'm distracting
 you. I was driving through it and I was really surprised because it was, at first, hot. Then,
 as it was getting into the evening, there's this huge thunderstorm. It was raining and it got
 freezing cold. I was like, what the hell? It was the apocalypse. I still just sit there,
 listening to Bruce Springsteen, I remember, and just thinking, I'm probably going to die. I was
 okay with it because Bruce Springsteen was on the radio. Look, when you've got the boss, you're ready
 to meet the boss. That's a good line. Anyway, sorry, the death is yes. It's true. Yeah, by the way,
 to continue on this tangent, I absolutely love the Southwest for this reason. During the pandemic,
 I drove from LA to New Mexico a bunch of times. The madness of weather? Yeah, the chaos of weather,
 the fact that it will be blazing hot one minute and then it's just like, we'll decide to have a
 little thunderstorm. Maybe we'll decide to go back momentarily to like a thousand degrees and then go
 back to the thunderstorm. It's amazing. That, by the way, is chaos theory in action. But let's get
 back to talking about the desert. In the desert, tumbleweeds have a tendency to roll because the
 wind rolls them. If you're careful, you occasionally see this family of tumbleweeds where there's a big
 one and then a bunch of little ones that hide in its wake and are all rolling together and almost
 looks like a family of ducks crossing a street or something. Or for example, if you watch Tour
 de France, you've got a whole bunch of cyclists and they're cycling within 10 centimeters of each
 other. They're not BFFs, right? They're not trying to ride together. They are riding together to
 minimize the collective air resistance, if you will, that they experience. Turns out solids in
 the protoplanetary disk do just this. There's an instability wherein solid particles, things that
 are a centimeter across, will start to hide behind one another and form these clouds. Why? Because
 cumulatively, that minimizes the solid component of this aerodynamic interaction with the gas.
 Now, these clouds, because they're a favorable energetic condition for the dust to live in,
 they grow, grow, grow, grow, grow until they become so massive that they collapse under their own
 weight. That's how the first building blocks of planets form. That's how the big asteroids
 got there. That's incredible. Is that simulatable or is it not useful to simulate? No, no, that's
 simulatable. People do these types of calculations. It's really cool. That's actually one of the many
 fields of planet formation theory that is really, really active. Right now, people are trying to
 understand all kinds of aspects of that process because, of course, I've explained it as if there's
 one thing that happens. Turns out, it's a beautifully rich dynamic, but qualitatively,
 formation of the first building blocks actually follows the same sequence as formation of stars.
 Stars are just clouds of gas, hydrogen-helium gas that sit in space and slowly cool. At some point,
 they contract to a point where their gravity overtakes the thermal pressure support, if you
 will, and they collapse under their own weight and you get a little baby solar system. That's
 amazing. Do you think one day it will be possible to simulate the full history that took our solar
 system to what it is today? Yes, and it will be useless. Okay. You don't think your story,
 many of the ideas that you have about Jupiter clearing the space, like retelling that story in
 high resolution is not that important? I actually think it's important, but at every stage, you have
 to design your experiments, your numerical computer experiments so that they test some specific
 aspect of that evolution. I am not a proponent of doing huge simulations because even if we forget
 the information theory aspect of not being able to simulate in full detail the universe, because
 if you do, then you have made an actual universe. It's not the simulation. Simulation is in some
 sense a compression of information, so therefore you must lose detail. But that point aside,
 if we are able to simulate the entire history of the solar system in excruciating detail,
 it'll be cool, but it's not going to be any different from observing it. Because theoretical
 understanding, which is what ultimately I'm interested in, comes from taking complex things
 and reducing them down to some mechanism that you can actually quantify. That's the fun part
 of astrophysics. Just kind of simulating things in extreme detail will make cool visualizations,
 but that doesn't get you to any better understanding than you had before you did the simulation.
 If you ask very specific questions, then you'll be able to create very highly compressed,
 nice, beautiful theories about how things evolved, and then you can use those to then
 generalize to other solar systems, to other stars and other galaxies, and then say something
 generalizable about the entire universe. How difficult would it be to simulate our solar
 system such that we would not know the difference? Meaning, if we are living in a simulation,
 is there a nice, think of it as a video game, is there a nice compressible way of doing that?
 Or just kind of like you intuited with a three-body situation is just a giant mess that you cannot
 create a video game that will seem realistic without actually building your own scratch?
 Well, I'm speculating, but one of the... Yeah, I know you have a deep understanding of this,
 but for me, I'm just going to speculate that for at least in the types of simulations that we can
 do today, inevitably, you run into the problem of resolution. It doesn't matter what you're doing,
 it is discrete. Now, the way you would go about asking what we're observing, is that a simulation
 or is that some real continuous thing, is you zoom in, right? You zoom in and try and find
 the grid scale, if you will. Yeah, I mean, it's a really interesting question. And because
 the solar system itself and really the double pendulum is chaotic, sitting on another pendulum,
 it moves unpredictably once you let them go. You really don't need to inject any randomness
 into a simulation for it to give you stochastic and unpredictable answers. Weather is a great
 example of this. Weather has a lapen of time of... Typical weather systems have a lapen of time of
 a few days. And there's a fundamental reason why the forecast always sucks, two weeks in a day,
 you know, two weeks in advance. It's not that we don't know the equations that govern
 the atmosphere, we know them well. Their solutions are meaningless though, after a few days.
 The zooming in thing is very interesting. I think about this a lot, whether there'll be a time
 soon where we would want to stay in video game worlds, whether it's virtual reality or just
 playing video games. I mean, I think that time came in the 90s and it's been that time. Well,
 it's not just games. I mean, it's accelerated. I just recently saw that WoW and Fortnite were
 played 140 billion hours. And those are just video games. And that's increasing very, very quickly,
 especially with the people coming up now, being born now and becoming teenagers and so on.
 Let's have a thought experiment where it's just you and a video game character inside a room.
 Where you remove the simulation, they need to simulate sort of a lot of objects. If it's just
 you and that character, how far do you need to simulate in terms of zooming in for it to be
 very real to you? As real as reality. So like, first of all, you kind of mentioned zooming in,
 which is fascinating because we have these tools of science that allow us to zoom in, quote unquote,
 in all kinds of ways in the world around us. But our cognitive abilities, like our perception system
 as humans is very limited in terms of zooming in. So we might be very easily fooled. Some of the
 video games like on the PS4 look pretty real to me. I think you would really have to interrogate.
 I mean, I think even with what we have today, like, I don't know, Ace Combat 7 is a great example.
 I mean, the way that the clouds are rendered, it's, I mean, it looks just like when you're flying
 on a real airplane, the kind of transparency. I think that our perception is limited enough already
 to not be able to tell some of the differences. There's a game called Skyrim. It's an Elder
 Scrolls role playing game. And I played it for quite a bit. And I think I played it very
 different than others. Like there'll be long stretches of time where I would just walk around
 and look at nature in the game. It's incredible. Oh, sure. It's just like the graphics is like,
 wow, I want to stay there. It was better. I went hiking recently. It was like as good as hiking.
 So look, I know what you mean, not to go on a huge video game, you know, tangent, but like the
 third like Witcher game was astonishingly beautiful, right? Especially like playing on
 on a good hardware machine. It's like, this is pretty legit. That said,
 I don't resonate with the, I want to stay here. One of the things that I love to do
 is to go to my boxing gym and box with a guy. There's nothing quite like that physical
 experience. That's fascinating. That might be simply an artifact of the year you were born.
 Maybe. Because if you're born today, it almost seems like stupid to go to a gym. Yeah. Like
 you go to a gym to box with a guy. Why not box with Mike Tyson when you yourself is like in his prime
 when you yourself are also an incredible boxer in the video game world. For me there's a multitude
 of reasons why I don't want to box with Mike Tyson. Right? No, no, no, no. I enjoy teeth,
 you know, and I want to have an ear. No, but your skills in this meat space, in this physical realm
 is very limited and takes a lot of work and you're a musician, you're an incredible scientist,
 you only have so much time in the day, but in the video game world you can expand your capabilities
 in all kinds of dimensions that you can never have possibly have time in the physical world.
 And so that it doesn't make sense like to be existing, to be working your ass off in the
 physical world when you can just be super successful in the video game world. But I still.
 You enjoy sucking at stuff? Yeah, I really do. And struggling to get better? I sure do. I mean,
 I think like these days with music, music is a great example, right? We just started, you know,
 practicing live with my band again, you know, after not playing for a year. And, you know,
 it was just terrible, right? It was just kind of a lot of the nuance, you know, a lot of the detail
 is just that detail that takes, you know, years of collective practice to develop. It's just lost.
 But it was just an incredible amount of fun, way more fun than all the like studios and all the
 way more fun than all the like studio, you know, sitting around and playing that I did, you know,
 throughout the entire year. So I think there's something, there's something intangible,
 or maybe maybe tangible about being being in person. I, I sure hope you're wrong. And that,
 you know, we that's not something that will get lost, because I think there's like such a large
 part of the human condition is to hang out. If we were doing this interview on zoom, right? I mean,
 I'd already be, I'd already be bored out of my mind.
 Exactly. I mean, there's something to that. I mean, I'm almost playing devil's advocate,
 but at the same time, you know, I'm sure people talk about the same way at the beginning of the
 20th century about horses, where they're, they are much more efficient. They're much easier to
 maintain than cars. It doesn't make sense to have, you know, all the ways that cars break down and
 there's not enough infrastructure in terms of roads for cars. It doesn't make any sense. Like
 horses and like nature, you could do the nature, like where, you know, you should be living more
 natural life. Those are real. You don't want machines in your life to go into pollute your mind
 and the minds of young people, but then eventually just cars took over. So in that same way, it just
 seems, uh, going back to horses. I'm just, you know, well, you can be, you can play, uh, uh, uh,
 what is it? Red dead, red dead redemption, redemption. And you can ride horses in the
 video game. So let me return us back to planet nine. Uh-huh. Always a good place to come back to.
 So now that we did a big historical overview of our solar system, what is planet nine?
 Okay. Planet nine is a hypothetical object that orbits the solar system, right? Uh, an orbital
 period of about 10,000 years and, um, an orbit, which is slightly tilted with respect to the
 plane of the solar system, slightly eccentric and the object itself we think is five times more
 massive than the earth. We have never seen planet nine in a telescope, but we have gravitational
 evidence for it. And so this is where all this stuff we've been talking about this clustering
 ideas. Maybe you can speak to the approximate location that we suspect. And also the question
 I wanted to ask is, uh, what are we supposed to be imagining here? Cause you said there's certain
 objects in the Kuiper belt that are kind of have a direction to them that they're all like, like
 flocking in some kind of way. So that's a sense that there's some kind of gravitational object,
 not changing their orbit, but kind of confining them, like finding that you're like grouping
 their orbits together. See what would happen if planet nine were not there is these orbits that
 roughly share a common orientation. They would just disperse, right? They would just become as
 a mutually symmetric point everywhere. Planet nine's gravity makes it such that these objects stay
 in a state that's, that's basically anti-aligned with respect to the orbit of planet nine. Um,
 and, and sort of hang out there and kind of oscillate on timescale of about a billion years.
 That's one of the lines of evidence for the existence of planet nine. There are others.
 That's the one that's easiest to maybe visualize just because it's fun to think about orbits that
 all point into the same direction. But I should, um, you know, emphasize that, for example,
 the existence of objects, again, Kuiper belt objects that are heavily out of the plane of
 the solar system, things that are tilted by say 90 degrees, that's not, uh, we don't expect that
 as an outcome of planet formation. Indeed, planet formation simulations have never produced
 such objects without some extrinsic gravitational force. Planet nine, on the other hand, generates
 them very readily. So that, uh, provides kind of an alternative, you know, population of small bodies
 in the solar system that also get produced by planet nine through an independent kind of
 gravitational effect. So they're kind of, there's basically five different things that the, uh, that
 planet nine does individually that are like kind of maybe a one sigma effect where you'd say, yeah,
 okay, if that's all it was, maybe it's not no reason to jump up and down, but because
 it's, it's, it's a multitude of these puzzles that all are explained by one hypothesis. That's,
 that's really the, the magnetism, the attraction of the planet nine model.
 So can you just clarify? So most orbit, most planets in the solar system orbit
 at an approximately the same sort of it's flat. Yeah, it's like one degree. They, the difference
 between them is about one degree. So, but nevertheless, if we looked at our solar system,
 it would look and like could see every single object, it would look like a sphere.
 The inner part where the planets are would look like, you know, flat, right? The, the Kuiper belt
 and the asteroid belt have a larger, um, it gets fatter and fatter and fatter.
 That's right. And if you look at the very outside, it's polluted by this, you know,
 quasi-sphoroidal thing. Nobody's of course ever seen the Oort cloud, right? We've only seen
 comments that come from the Oort cloud. So the Oort cloud, which is this, right, population of
 distant debris, its existence is also inferred. You could say alternatively, there is, you know,
 there's a big cosmic creature that occasionally, you know, sitting at 20,000 AU and occasionally
 throws an icy rock towards the sun like that. Spaghetti monster, I think it's called. Okay.
 I mean, so it's a mystery in many ways, but you can kind of infer a bunch of things about it.
 It's, by the way, both terrifying and exciting that there's this vast darkness all around us
 that's full of objects that they're just throwing. Just there, yeah. It's actually kind of astonishing,
 right? That we have only explored a small fraction of the solar system, right? That, that really
 kind of baffles me because I remember as a student, you know, studying physics, you know,
 you do the problem where you put the earth around the sun, you solve that and like, it's one line of
 math and you say, okay, well, that surely was figured out by Newton. So like all the interesting
 stuff is not in the solar system, but that it's just plainly not true. There are, there are
 mysteries in the solar system that are remarkable that we are only now starting to just kind of
 scratch the surface of. And some of those objects probably have some information about the history
 of our solar system. Absolutely. Absolutely. Like a great example is, you know, small meteorites,
 right? Small meteorites are melted, right? They have, they're differentiated, meaning some of the
 iron sinks to the core. You say, well, how can that be? Because they're so small that they wouldn't
 have melted just from the heat of their accretion. Turns out the fact that the solar nebula, the disc
 that made the planets was polluted by aluminum-26 is in itself a remarkable thing. It means
 the solar system did not form in isolation. It formed in a giant cloud of thousands of other
 stars that were also forming, some of which were undergoing, you know, going through supernova
 explosions, some of, and releasing these unstable isotopes that, which we now see kind of the traces
 of. It's so cool. Do you think it's possible that life from other solar systems was injected and
 that that was, what was the origin of life on earth? Yeah, the panspermia idea.
 Yeah, the panspermia idea. That's seen as a low probability event by people who studied the origin
 of life, but that's because then they would be out of a job. Well, I don't think they'd be out of the
 job because you just then say, you have to figure out how life started there. But then you have to
 go there. We can study life on earth much easier. We could study it in the lab much easier because
 we can replicate conditions that are from an early earth much easier from a chemistry perspective,
 from a biology perspective. You can intuit a bunch of stuff. You can look at different parts of earth.
 To an extent, I mean, the early earth was completely unlike the current earth, right? There
 was no oxygen. So one of my colleagues at Caltech, Joe Kirchnick, is certain, right? Something like
 100% certainty that life started on Mars and came to earth on Martian media rights. This is not
 a problem that I like to kind of think about too much. Like the origin of life, it's a fascinating
 problem, but it's not physics. And I just don't love it. It's the same reason you don't love,
 I thought you're a musician. So music is not physics either. So why are you so into it?
 100% physics.
 Okay.
 No, no, look, in all seriousness though, there are a few things that I really, really enjoy. I
 genuinely enjoy physics. I genuinely enjoy music. I genuinely enjoy martial arts and I genuinely
 enjoy my family. I should have said that all in a reverse order or something, but I like to focus
 on these things and not worry too much about everything else. You know what I mean?
 Yes.
 Just because there is a, like you said earlier, there's a time constraint. You can't do it all.
 There's many mysteries all around us. And they're all beautiful in different ways. To me, that thing
 I love is artificial intelligence. Perhaps I love it because eventually I'm trying to suck up to
 our future overlords. The question of, you said there's a lot of kind of little pieces of evidence
 for this thing that's Planet Nine. If we were to try to collect more evidence or be certain,
 like a paper that says, like you drop it, clear, we're done. What does that require? Does that
 require us sending probes out or do you think we can do it from telescopes here on earth?
 What are the different ideas for conclusive evidence for Planet Nine?
 The moment Planet Nine gets imaged from a telescope on earth, it's done. I mean, it's just there.
 Can you clarify it? Because you mentioned that before. From an image, would you be able to tell?
 Yes. So from an image, the moment you see something, something that is reflecting
 sunlight back at you and you know that it's hundreds of times as far away from the sun as
 is the earth, you're done. So you're thinking, so basically if you have a really far away thing
 that's big, five times the size of earth, that means that is Planet Nine. That is Planet Nine.
 Could there be multiple objects like that, I guess? In principle, yeah. I mean, there's no
 law of physics that doesn't allow you to have multiple objects. There's also no evidence
 at present for there being multiple objects. I wonder if it's possible, just like we're
 finding exoplanets, whether given the size of the Oro Cloud, there's basically, it's rare and rare,
 but there's sprinkled Planet Nine, 10, 11, 12, like these some...
 Got 13.
 Yeah, it goes after that. I can just keep counting. So just something about the dynamical system
 like it becomes lower and lower probability event, but they gather up, like they become,
 would they become larger and larger maybe, something like that. I wonder if like discovering
 Planet Nine will just like be almost like a springboard, it's like, well, what's beyond that?
 It's entirely plausible. The Oro Cloud itself probably holds about five earth masses or seven
 earth masses of material, right? So it's not nothing. And it all ultimately comes down to
 at what point will the observational surveys sample enough of the solar system to kind of
 reveal interesting things. There's a great analogy here with Neptune and the story of how Neptune was
 discovered. Neptune was not discovered by looking at the sky, right? It was discovered by,
 it was discovered mathematically, right? So yeah, the orbit of Uranus, when Uranus was found,
 this was 1781, it's the kind of tracking of both the tracking of the orbit of Uranus as well as the
 reconstruction of the orbit of Uranus immediately revealed that it was not following the orbit that
 it was supposed to, right? The predicted orbit deviated away from where it actually was. So
 in the mid 1800s, right, a French mathematician by the name of Orban Le Verrier did a
 beautifully sophisticated calculation which said, if this is due to gravity of a more distant planet,
 then that planet is there, okay? And then they found it. But the point is the understanding
 of where to look for Neptune came entirely out of celestial mechanics. The case with planet nine
 is a little bit different because what we can do, I think, relatively well is predict the orbit of
 mass of planet nine. We cannot tell you where it is on its orbit. The reason is we haven't seen
 the Kuiper belt objects complete an orbit, their own orbit, even once because it takes 4,000 years.
 But I plan to live on as an AI being, and I'll be tracking those orbits as-
 So it takes 4,000 or 5,000 years. I mean, it doesn't have to be AI, it could be longevity,
 there's a lot of really exciting genetic engineering research. So you'll just be a brain
 waiting for your brain waiting for the orbit to complete for the basic Kuiper belt objects.
 That's right. That's like kind of the worst reason to want to live a long time, right?
 Can the brain smoke a cigarette? Can you just light one up while you're waiting?
 I know, right? It's just like-
 But you're making me actually realize that the one way to explore
 the galaxy is by just sitting here on earth and waiting. So if we can just get really good at
 waiting, it's like a Muamua or these interstellar objects that fly in, you can just wait for them
 to come to you. Same with the aliens, you can wait for them to come to you. If you get really good
 at waiting, then that's one way to do the exploration because eventually the thing will come to you.
 Maybe the intelligent alien civilizations get much better at waiting and so they all decide,
 so game theoretically, to start waiting. And it's just a bunch of ancient intelligent civilizations
 of aliens all throughout the universe. They're just sitting there waiting for each other.
 Look, you can't just be good at waiting. You got to know how to chill.
 You can't just sit around and do nothing. You got to know how to chill.
 I honestly think that as we progress, if the aliens are anything like us, we enjoy loving
 things we do. And it's very possible that we just figure out mechanisms here on earth to enjoy our
 life and we just stay here on earth forever, that exploration becomes less and less of an interesting
 thing to do. So you basically, yes, wait and chill. You get really optimally good at chilling
 and thereby exploring is not that interesting. So in terms of 4,000 years would be nothing for
 scientists. We'll be chilling and just all kinds of scientific explorations will become possible
 because we'll just be here on earth. So chill. So chill. You have a paper out recently because
 you already mentioned some of these ideas, but I'd love it if you could dig into it a little bit.
 Yeah, of course. The injection of inner
 Oort cloud objects into the distant Kuiper belt by Planet Nine. What is this idea of Planet Nine
 injecting objects into the Kuiper belt? Okay. Let me take a brief step back and
 when we do calculations of Planet Nine, when we do the simulations, as far as our simulations
 are concerned, the Trans-Neptunian solar system is entirely sourced from the inside. Namely,
 the Kuiper belt gets scattered by Neptune and then Planet Nine does things to it and aligns
 the orbits and so on. Then we calculate what happens on the lifetime of the solar system,
 yada, yada, yada. During the pandemic, one of the kind of questions we asked ourselves,
 and this is indeed something Mike Brown, who's a partner in crime on this, and I do regularly,
 is we say, how can we A, disprove ourselves and B, how can we improve our simulations? Like,
 what's missing? One idea that maybe should have been obvious in retrospect is that all of our
 simulations treated the solar system as some isolated creature, right? But the solar system
 did not form in isolation, right? It formed in this cluster of stars and during that phase
 of forming together with thousands of other stars, we believe the solar system formed this
 almost spherical population of icy debris that sits maybe at a few thousand times the separation
 between the earth and the sun, maybe even a little bit closer. If Planet Nine's not there,
 that population is completely dormant and these objects just slowly orbit the sun.
 Nothing interesting happens to them ever. But what we realized is that if Planet Nine is there,
 Planet Nine can actually grab some of those objects and gravitationally re-inject them
 into the distant solar system. So we thought, okay, let's look into this with numerical
 experiments. Do our simulations, does this process work? And if it works, what are its consequences?
 So it turns out, indeed, not only does Planet Nine inject these distant inner Oort cloud objects
 into the Kuiper belt, they follow roughly the same pathway as the objects that are being scattered
 out. So there's this kind of two-way river of material. Some of it is coming out by Neptune
 scattering, some of it is moving in. And if you work through the numbers, you kind of,
 at the end of the day, that it has an effect on the best fit orbit for Planet Nine itself.
 So if you realize that the data set that we're observing is not entirely composed of things
 that came out of the solar system, but also things that got re-injected back in, then turns out the
 best fit Planet Nine slightly more eccentric. That's kind of getting into the weeds. The point
 here is that the existence of Planet Nine itself provides this natural bridge that connects an
 otherwise dormant population of icy debris of the solar system with things that we're starting to
 directly observe. So it can flow back, so it's not just the river flowing one way, it's maybe a smaller
 stream go back and... Backwash. You want to backwash. You want to incorporate that into the simulations,
 into your understanding of those distant objects when you're trying to make sense of the various
 observations and so on. Exactly. That's fascinating. I gotta ask you, some people think that many of
 the observations that you're describing could be described by a primordial black hole. First,
 what is a primordial black hole and what do you think about this idea? Yeah. So primordial black
 hole is a black hole which is made not through the usual pathway of making a black hole,
 which is that you have a star, which is more massive than 1.4 or so solar masses. And basically
 when it runs out of fuel, runs out of its nuclear fusion fuel, it can't hold itself up anymore and
 just the whole thing collapses on itself. Right? And you create a... I mean, one, I guess, simple
 way to think about it is you create an object with zero radius that has mass but zero radius,
 I guess, singularity. Now, such black holes exist all over the place. In the galaxy, there's in fact
 a really big one at the center of the galaxy. That one's always looking at you when you're not
 looking. Okay? And it's always talking about you. And when you turn off the lights, it wakes up.
 That's right. So such black holes are all over the place. When they merge, we get to see incredible
 gravitational waves that they emit, et cetera, et cetera. One kind of plausible scenario, however,
 is that when the universe was forming, basically during the Big Bang, you created a whole spectrum
 of black holes, some with masses of five Earth masses, some with masses of 10 Earth masses,
 like the entire mass spectrum size, some mass of asteroids. Now, on the smaller end, over the
 lifetime of the universe, the small ones kind of evaporate and are not there anymore. At least,
 this is what the calculations tell us. But five Earth masses is big enough to not have evaporated.
 So one idea is that Planet Nine is not a planet, and instead it is a five Earth mass black hole.
 And that's why it's hard to find. Now, can we right away from our calculations say,
 that's definitely true or that's not true? Absolutely not. In fact, our calculations
 tell you nothing other than the orbit and the mass. And that means the black hole, I mean,
 it could be a five Earth mass cup. It could be a five Earth mass hedgehog or a black hole,
 or really anything that's five Earth masses will do, because the gravity of a black hole
 is no different than the gravity of a planet. If the sun became a black hole tomorrow,
 it would be dark, but the Earth would keep orbiting it. This notion that black holes
 suck everything in, that's like a sci-fi notion. It's just math. What would be the difference
 between a black hole and a planet in terms of observationally? Observationally, the difference
 would be that you will never find the black hole. The truth is, I never looked into this very carefully,
 but there are some constraints that you can get just statistically. Say, okay, if the sun
 has a binary companion, which is a five Earth mass black hole, then that means such black holes
 would be extremely common. And you can look for lensing events and then you say, okay,
 maybe that's not so likely. But that said, I want to emphasize that there's a limit to what
 our calculations can tell you. That's the orbit and the mass.
 So I think there's a bunch, like Ed Witten, I think wishes it's a black hole, because I think
 one exciting thing about black holes in our solar system is that we can go there and we can maybe
 study the singularity somehow, because that allows us to understand some fundamental things about
 physics. If it's a planet, so planet nine, we may not, and we go there, we may not discover anything
 profoundly new. The interesting thing, perhaps you can correct me about planet nine, is like the big
 picture of it. The whole big story of the Kuiper belt and all those kinds of things. It's not
 that planet nine would be somehow fundamentally different from, I don't know, Neptune,
 in terms of the kind of things we can learn from it. So I think that there's kind of a hope that
 it's a black hole because it's an entirely new kind of object. Maybe you can correct me.
 Yeah, I mean, of course, here my own biases creep in because I'm interested in planets around other
 stars. And I would say, I would disagree that we wouldn't find things that would be truly
 fundamentally new because as it turns out, the galaxy is really good at making five or three
 Earth mass objects. The most common type of planet that we see, that we discover orbiting
 around other stars is a few Earth masses. In the solar system, there's no analog for that.
 We go from one Earth mass object, which is this one, to a few Earth masses. And so we
 go from one Earth mass object, which is this one, to skipping to Neptune and Uranus, which
 themselves are actually relatively poorly understood, especially Uranus from the interior
 structure point of view. If planet nine is a planet, going there will give us the closest
 window into understanding what other planets look like. And I'll say this, that planets,
 with their complexity on some logarithmic scale, fall somewhere between a star and an insect.
 An insect is way more complicated than a star. Just all kinds of physical processes and really
 biochemical processes that occur inside of an insect that just make a star look like
 somebody is playing with a spring or something. I think it would be arguably more interesting
 to go to planet nine if it's a planet, because black holes are simple. They're basically macroscopic
 particles. Just like the star that you mentioned in terms of complexity. So it's possible that
 planet nine is supposed to be homogeneous, is super heterogeneous, has a bunch of cool
 stuff going on that could give us intuition. I never thought about that, that it's basically
 Earth number two in terms of size and starts giving us intuition that could be generalizable
 to Earth-like planets elsewhere in the galaxy.
 Yeah, Pluto is also in the sense, Pluto is a tiny, tiny thing, just like you would have
 imagined as just a tiny ball of ice, who cares? But the New Horizons images of Pluto
 reveal so much remarkable structure. They reveal glaciers flowing, and these are glaciers not made
 out of water ice, but CO ice. It turns out at those temperatures of 40 or so Kelvin,
 water ice looks like metal. It just doesn't flow at all, but then ice made up of carbon monoxide
 starts to flow. There's just all kinds of really cool phenomena that you otherwise just wouldn't
 really even imagine that occur. So yeah, there's a reason why I like planets.
 Well, let me ask you, I find as I read the idea that Ed Witten was thinking about this kind of
 stuff fascinating. So he's a mathematical physicist who's very interested in string theory, won the
 Fields Medal for his work in mathematics. So I read that he proposed a fleet of probes accelerated
 by radiation pressure that could discover a planet nine primordial black holes location.
 What do you think about this idea of sending a bunch of probes out there?
 Yeah, look, the idea is a cool one. You go and you say, launch them basically isotropically,
 you track where they go. And if I understand the idea correctly, you basically measure the
 deflection and you say, okay, that must be something there since the probe trajectories
 are being altered.
 Oh, so the basic sensory mechanism is the, it's not like you have senses on the probes,
 it's more like you're, because you're very precisely able to capture, to measure the
 trajectory of the probes, you can then infer the gravitational fields.
 Yeah, I think that's the basic idea. Back a few years ago, we had conversations like these with
 engineers from JPL. They more or less convinced me that this is much more difficult than it seems,
 because you don't, at that level of precision, things like solar flares matter. Solar flares
 are completely chaotic. You can't predict which, where a solar flare will happen. That will drive
 radiation pressure gradients. You don't know where every single asteroid will hit.
 So like actually doing that problem, I think it's possible, but it's not a trivial matter.
 Right.
 Well, I wonder not just about Planet Nine. I wonder if that's kind of the future of doing
 science in our solar system is to just launch a huge number of probes. So like a whole order of
 magnitude, many orders of magnitude, larger numbers of probes, but it's not like you're
 just launching a bunch of probes and then starting for a bunch of different stuff,
 not just gravity, but everything else.
 So in this regard, I actually think there is a huge revolution that's to some extent already
 started. The standard kind of like time scale for a NASA mission is that you propose it and it
 launches, I don't know, like 150 years after you propose it. I'm over exaggerating, but it's just
 a development cycle and it gets delayed 55 times. That is not going away. The really cutting edge
 things, you have to do it this way because you don't know what you're building, so to speak.
 But the CubeSat kind of world is starting to provide an avenue for launching something that
 costs a few million dollars and has a turnaround time scale of like a couple of years. You can
 imagine doing PhD theses where you design the mission, the mission goes to where you're going
 and you do the science all within a time span of five, six years. That has not been fully executed
 on yet, but I absolutely think that's on the horizon and we're not talking a decade. I think
 we're talking like this decade.
 Yeah, and the companies are accelerating all this with Blue Origin and SpaceX. There's a bunch of
 more CubeSat oriented companies that are pushing this forward. Let me ask you on that topic,
 what do you think about either one? Elon Musk with SpaceX going to Mars, I think he wants SpaceX to
 be the first to put a first human on Mars. And then Jeff Bezos, got to give him props, wants to be the
 first to fly his own rocket out into space.
 You know, wasn't there a guy who like built his rocket out of garbage? This was like a couple
 years ago and somewhere in the desert he launched himself.
 I'm not tracking this closely, but I think I am familiar with folks who built their own rocket
 to try to prove the earth is flat.
 Yes, that's the guy I'm talking about. He also jumped some limousine.
 Truly revolutionary mind. You have the greater men than either you or I.
 So look, it's been astonishing to watch how really over the last decade, the commercial sector took
 over this industry that traditionally has really been like a government thing to do.
 Motivated primarily by the competition between nations, like the Cold War.
 And now it's motivated more and more by the natural forces of capitalism.
 Yes, that's right. So, okay, here I have many ideas about it. I think on the one hand, right,
 like what SpaceX has been able to do, for example, phenomenal.
 If that brings down the price of space exploration, that turnaround time scale for space exploration,
 which I think it inevitably will, that's a huge boost to the human condition.
 The same time, right, if we're talking astronomy, right, there also it comes at a huge cost,
 right? And the Starlink satellites is a great example of that cost, right? At one point,
 in fact, I was just camping in the Mojave with a friend of mine and they saw this
 string of satellites just kind of like appear and then disappear into nowhere. So that is beginning
 to interfere with Earth-based observations. So I think there's tremendous potential there.
 It's also important to be responsible about how it's executed. Now with Mars and the whole idea
 of exploring Mars, right, I don't have like strong opinions on whether a manned mission is
 required or not required. But I do think, you know, we need to focus... The thing to keep in mind is
 that I generally kind of... I'm not signed on, if you will, to the idea that Mars is some kind of a
 safe haven that we can, you know, escape to, right? Mars sucks, right? Like living on Mars, if you want
 to live on Mars, like you can have that experience by going to the Mojave Desert and camping and it's
 just like... It's just not a great experience. Well, it's interesting, but there's something
 captivating about that kind of mission of us striving out into space and by making Mars in
 some ways habitable for at least like months at a time, I think would lead to engineering breakthroughs
 that would make life like in many ways much better on Earth. Like it will come up with ideas we
 totally don't expect yet, both on the robotics side, on the food engineering side, on the,
 you know, maybe like we'll switch from... Like there'll be huge breakthroughs in insect farming,
 as exciting as I find that idea to be. That in the ways we consume protein, maybe
 it'll revolutionize. We do factory farming, which is full of cruelty and, you know,
 and torture of animals will revolutionize that completely because of our... Like we don't...
 We shouldn't need to go to Mars to revolutionize life here on Earth, but at the same time, I
 shouldn't need a deadline to get shit done, but I do need it. And then the same way, I think we
 need Mars. There's something about the human spirit that loves that longing for exploration.
 I agree with that thesis. The going to the moon, right? And that whole endeavor has, you know,
 has captivated the imagination of so many and it has led to incredible kind of incredible ideas,
 really, and probably in nonlinear ways, right? Not like, okay, we went to the moon, therefore
 some person here has thought of this. In that similar sense, I think, you know, space exploration
 is... There's something, there's some real magnetism about it and it's on a genetic level,
 right? Like we have this need to keep exploring, right? When we're done with a certain frontier,
 we move on to the next frontier. All that I'm saying is that I'm not moving to Mars to live there
 permanently ever, you know? And I think that, you know, I'm glad you noted the kind of degradation
 of the Earth, right? I think that is a true kind of the leading order challenge of our time.
 Yeah, it's a great engineering... That's a bunch of engineering problems. I'm most interested in
 space because as I've read extensively, it's apparently very difficult to have sex in space.
 And so I just want that problem to be solved because I think once we solve the sex in space
 problem, we'll revolutionize sex here on Earth, thereby increasing the fun on Earth and the
 consequences of that can only be good. I mean, you can, you've got a clear plan, right? And it
 sounds like... I'm submitting proposals to NASA as we speak. That's right.
 I keep getting rejected. I don't know why. Okay. You need better diagrams. Better pictures. I
 should have thought of that. You a while ago mentioned that, you know, there's certain aspects
 in the history of the solar system and Earth that resulted, that it could have resulted in an opaque
 atmosphere, but it didn't. We can see the stars. And somebody mentioned to me a little bit ago,
 it's almost like a philosophical question for you. Do you think humans, like human society would
 develop as it did or at all, if we couldn't see the stars? It would be drastically different,
 but just dry, if it ever did develop. So I think some of the early developments, right, of like...
 Fire. You know, fire, you know, first of all, that atmosphere would be so hot because, you know,
 if you have an opaque atmosphere, the temperature at the bottom is huge. So we would be very
 different beings to start with. We'd have very different... But it could be cloudy in certain
 kinds of ways that you could still get... Okay. Think about like a greenhouse, right? A greenhouse
 is cloudy, effectively, but it's super hot. Yeah, it's hard to avoid having an atmosphere.
 If you have an opaque atmosphere, it's hard to... Right. Venus is a great example, right? Venus is,
 I don't remember exactly how many degrees, but it's hundreds in Celsius, right? It's not a hundred,
 it's hundreds. Even though it's only a little bit closer to the sun, that temperature is entirely
 coming from the fact that the atmosphere is thick. So it's a sauna of sorts. Yeah, yeah. You go there,
 you know, you feel refreshed after you come back, you know. But if you stay there... I mean, so,
 okay, take that as an assumption. This is a philosophical question, not a biological one. So
 you have a life that develops under these extremely hot conditions. Yeah. So let's see,
 so much of the early evolution of mankind was driven by exploration, right? And the
 interest in stars originated in part as a tool to guide that exploration, right? I mean, that in
 itself, I think would be a huge differential in the way that our evolution on this planet.
 Yeah, I mean, stars, that's brilliant. So even in that aspect, but even in further aspects,
 astronomy just shows up in basically every single development in the history of science up until the
 20th century, it shows up. So I wonder without that, if we would have, if we would even get like
 calculus. Yeah, look, that's a great, I mean, that's a great point. Newton in part developed
 calculus because he was interested in understanding, explaining Kepler's laws, right? In general,
 that whole mechanistic understanding of the night sky, right? Replacing a religious understanding
 where you interpret, you know, this is, you know, this whatever fire god writing his, you know,
 a little chariot across the sky as opposed to, you know, this is some mechanistic set of laws.
 That transformed humanity and arguably put us on the course that we're on today, right? The entirety
 of the last 400 years and the development of kind of our technological world that we live in today
 was sparked by that, right? Abandoning an effectively, you know, a non-secular view
 of the natural world and kind of thing, okay, this can be understood and if it can be understood,
 it can be utilized. We can create our own variance of this. Absolutely, we would be a very,
 very different species without astronomy. This I think extends beyond just astronomy, right?
 There are questions like, why do we need to spend money on X, right? Where X can be anything like
 paleontology, right? The mating patterns of penguins. Yeah, that's like-
 Essential. That's right. I think, you know, there's a tremendous underappreciation for the usefulness
 of useless knowledge, right? I mean- That's brilliant.
 I didn't come up with this. This is a little book by the guy who started the Institute for
 Advanced Studies, but, you know, it's so true. So much of the electronics that are on this table,
 right, work on Maxwell's equations. Maxwell wasn't sitting around in the 1800s saying, you know,
 I hope one day, you know, we'll make a couple of mics so a couple guys can have this conversation,
 right? That wasn't at no point was that the motivation and yet, you know, it gave us
 the world that we have today. And the answer is, if you are a purely pragmatic person,
 if you don't care at all about kind of the human condition, none of this, the answer is,
 you can tax it, right? Like, useless things have created way more capital than useful things.
 And the sad thing, I mean, first of all, it's really important to think about and it's brilliant
 in the following context. Like, Neil deGrasse Tyson has this book about the role of military
 based funding in the development of science. And then so much of technological breakthroughs
 in the 20th century had to do with humans working on different military things. And then the outcome
 of that had nothing to do with military. It had some military application, but their impact was
 much, much bigger than military. The splitting of the atom is a kind of a canonical example of
 this. We all know the tragedy that arises from splitting of the atom and yet, you know,
 so much, I mean, the atom itself does not care for what purpose it is being split. So-
 So I wonder if we took the same amount of funding as we used for war and poured it into
 like totally seemingly useless things, like the mating patterns of penguins,
 we would get the internet anyway. I think so. I think so. And, you know,
 perhaps more of the internet would have penguins, you know?
 So we're both joking, but in some sense, like, I wonder, it's not the penguins, because penguins
 is more about sort of biology, but all useless kind of tinkering and all kinds of, in all kinds
 of avenues. And also because military applications are often burdened by the secrecy required. So
 it's often like so much, the openness is lacking. And if we learned anything for the last few
 decades is that when there's openness in science, that accelerates the development of science.
 That's right. That's true. The openness of science truly, you know, it benefits
 everybody. The notion that if, you know, I share my science with you, then you're going to catch up
 and like know the same thing. That is a short-sighted viewpoint, because if you catch up and you
 open, you know, you discover something that puts me in a position to do the next step.
 Right. So I absolutely agree with all of this. I mean, the kind of question of like military
 funding versus non-military funding is obviously a complicated one. But at the end of the day,
 I think we have to get over the notion as a society that we are going to, you know, pay for this,
 and then we will get that. Right. That's true if you're buying like, I don't know, toilet paper
 or something, right. It's just not true in the intellectual pursuit. That's not how it works.
 And sometimes it'll fail, right. Like sometimes like a huge fraction of what I do, right. I come
 up with an idea. I think, oh, it's great. And then I work it out. It's totally not great, right. It
 fails immediately. Failure is not a sign that the initial pursuit was worthless. Right. Failure is
 just part of this kind of this whole exploration thing. And we should fund more and more of this
 exploration, the variety of the exploration. I think it was Linus Pauling or somebody from,
 you know, that generation of scientists. And, you know, a good way to have good ideas is to have a
 lot of ideas. So I think that's true. If you are conservative in your thinking, if you worry about
 proposing something that's going to fail and oh, what if, you know, like, there's no science police
 that's going to come and arrest you for proposing the wrong thing. And, you know, it's also just
 like, why would you, why would you do science if you're afraid of, you know, taking that step? It
 would be so much better to propose things that are plausible, that are interesting, and then for a
 fraction of them to be wrong than to just kind of, you know, make incremental progress all your
 life, right.
 Speaking of wild ideas, let me ask you about the thing we mentioned previously, which is this
 interstellar object, a mua mua. Could it be space junk from a distant alien civilization?
 You can't immediately discount that by saying absolutely it cannot. Anything can be space junk.
 I mean, from that point of view, can any of the Kuiper Belt objects we see be space junk? Anything
 on the night sky can in principle be space junk.
 And Kuiper Belt would catch interstellar objects potentially and like force them into an orbit if
 they're like small enough?
 Not the Kuiper Belt itself, but you can imagine like Jupiter family comets being captured, you
 know, so you can actually capture things. It's even easier to do this very early in the solar
 system, like early in the solar system's life, while it's still in a cluster of stars. It's
 unavoidable that you capture debris, whether it be natural debris or unnatural debris or just debris
 of some kind from other stars. It's like a daycare center, right? Like everybody passes their
 infections on to other kids. You know, one more, there's been a lot of discussion about it.
 There's been a lot of interest in this over, like, is it aliens or is it not? But let's like,
 if you just kind of look at the facts, like what we know about it is it's kind of like a weird
 shape and it also accelerated. Right? Like that's the two, those are the two interesting things
 about it. There are puzzles about it and perhaps the most daring resolution to this puzzle is that
 it's not, you know, aliens or it's not like a rock. It's actually a piece of hydrogen ice.
 So this is a friend of mine, you know, Darrell Seligman and Greg Loughlin came up with this
 idea that in giant molecular clouds that are just clouds of hydrogen, helium, gas that live in,
 live throughout the galaxy at their cores, you can condense ice to become these hydrogen
 hydrogen, you know, icebergs, if you will. And then that explains many of the aspects of,
 in fact, I think that explains all of the one more mystery, how it becomes elongated,
 because basically the hydrogen ice sublimates and kind of like a bar of soap that, you know,
 slowly kind of elongates as you strip away the surface layers, how it was able to accelerate
 because of a jet that is produced from, you know, the hydrogen coming off of it, but you can't see
 it because it's hydrogen gas. Like all of this stuff kind of falls together nicely.
 I'm intrigued by that idea, truly, because it's like, if that's true, that's a new type of
 astrophysical object. And it would be produced by, what's the monster that produced it initially,
 that kind of object? So this is giant molecular clouds. They are everywhere. I mean, they are,
 the fact that they exist is not... Are they rogue clouds or are they part of like an oar cloud?
 No, no, they're rogue clouds. They're just floating about. Yeah. So if you go, like a lot of people
 imagine the galaxy as being a, you know, a bunch of stars, right? And they're just orbiting, right?
 But the truth is if you fly between stars, you run into clouds. They don't have any large object that
 creates orbits. They're just floating about. Just floating. But why are they floating together?
 Or they just float together for time and not... Well, so these are the, these eventually become
 the nurseries of stars. So as they cool, they contract and then collapse into stars or into
 groups of stars. But some of them, the starless molecular clouds, according to the calculations
 that Daryl and Greg did, can create these icicles of hydrogen ice. I wonder why they would be flying
 so fast. Because they seem to be moving pretty fast at a quick pace. You mean Oumuamua? Oumuamua, yeah.
 That's just because of their acceleration due to the sun. If you stop, I mean, it's like
 take something really far away, let it go and the sun is here. By the time it comes close to the sun,
 right? It's moving pretty fast. So that's an attractive explanation, I think. Not so much
 because it's cool, but it makes a clear prediction, right? Of when the Verurubin Observatory comes
 online next year or so, we will discover many, many more of these objects, right? And they have...
 So I like theories that are falsifiable, right? Not just testable, but falsifiable. It's good
 to have a falsifiable theory where you can say that's not true. Aliens is one that's fundamentally
 difficult to say, no, that's not alien. Well, the interesting thing to me, if we look at one alien
 civilization and then we look at the things it produces, in terms of before to try to detect
 the alien civilization, there's like, say there's 10 billion aliens, there would probably be
 trillions of dumb drone type things produced by the aliens and then be many, many, many
 more orders of magnitude of junk. So like if you were to look for an alien civilization, in my mind,
 you would be looking for the junk. That's the more efficient thing to look for.
 I'm not saying Amoamua has any characteristics of space junk, but it kind of opened my eyes
 to the idea that we shouldn't necessarily be looking to the queen of the ant colony.
 We should be looking at, I don't know, I don't know, like traces of alien life that doesn't
 look intelligent in any way, may not even look like life. It could be just garbage. We should
 be looking for garbage. Just generically. Garbage that's producible by unnatural forces. For me,
 at least, that was kind of interesting because if you have a successful alien civilization,
 that we will be producing many more orders of magnitude of junk and that would be easier
 potentially to detect. Well, so you have to produce the junk, but you have to also launch it.
 So this is where, let's imagine. Garbage disposal. Yeah. But let's imagine we are
 a successful civilization that has made it to space. We clearly have.
 And yes, we're in the infancy of that pursuit, but we've launched, I don't know how many satellites,
 probably if you count GPS satellites, it must be at least thousands. It's certainly thousands.
 I don't know if it's over 10,000, but it's on that order. But it's on that large order of magnitude.
 How many of the things that we've launched will ever leave the solar system? I think two.
 Well, maybe the Voyager, the Voyager 1, Voyager 2. I don't know if the Pioneer.
 So maybe three. There's also a Tesla Roadster out there. That one, it will never leave the
 solar system. I think that one will eventually collide with Mars. That can be SpaceX's first
 Mars destination. But look, so there's an energetic cost to interstellar travel,
 which is really hard to overcome. And when we think about generically, what do we look for in
 an alien civilization, oftentimes we tend to imagine that the thing you look for is the thing
 that we're doing right now. So I think that if I look at the future, and for a while, like,
 we would say, OK, if aliens are out there, they must be broadcasting in radio.
 The amount that we broadcast in radio has diminished tremendously in the last 50 years.
 But we're doing a lot more computation. What are the signs of computation? That's an interesting
 question to ask. We're, I don't know, I think something on the order of a few percent of the
 entire electrical grid last year went to mining Bitcoin, right? There could be a lot of, in the
 future, different consequences of the computation, which I'm biased, but it could be robotics, it
 could be artificial intelligence. So we may be looking for intelligent looking objects. That's
 what I meant by probes, like things that move in kind of artificial ways. But the emergence of
 AI is not an if, right? It's happening right in front of our eyes. And the energetic costs associated
 with that are becoming a tangible problem. So I think if you imagine kind of extrapolating that
 into the future, right, what becomes the bottleneck, right? The bottleneck might be
 powering the AI, broadly speaking, not one AI, but powering that entire AI ecosystem, right?
 So I don't know. I think space junk is kind of, it's an interesting idea, but it's heavily
 influenced by like sci-fi of 1950s, where by 2020, we're all like flying to the moon. And so we
 produce a lot of space junk. I'm not sure if that's the pathway that alien civilizations take.
 I've also never seen an alien civilization. I don't know.
 That's true. But if your theory of chill turns out to be true, and then we don't necessarily
 explore, we seize the exploration phase of, like alien civilizations quickly seize the exploration
 phase of their efforts, then perhaps they'll just be chilling in a particular space, expanding
 slowly, but then using up a lot of resources and then have to have a lot of garbage disposal that
 sends stuff out. And the other idea was that it could be a relay that you'll almost have like
 these GPS-like markers that you send throughout, which I think is kind of interesting. It's
 similar to this probe idea of sending a large number of probes out to measure gravitational,
 to measure basically, yeah, the gravitational field, essentially. I mean, a lot of people
 at Caltech or in MIT are trying to measure gravitational fields, and there's a lot of ideas
 of sending stuff out there that accurately measures those gravitational fields to have
 a greater understanding of the early universe. But then you might realize that communication
 through gravity is actually much more effective than radio waves, for example, something like
 that. And then you send out, I mean, okay, if you're an alien civilization that's able to
 have gigantic masses, like basically... We're getting there as a civilization.
 No, we're not even close. Well, I mean...
 Okay, you're okay. I mean, like be able to sort of play with black holes, that kind of thing. So
 we're talking about a whole other order of magnitude of masses, then it may be very
 effective to send signals via gravitational waves. Actually, my sense is that all of these things are
 genuinely difficult to predict. And I don't mean to kind of shy away. I really mean if you think,
 if you take imagination of what the future will look like from 500 years ago, right? It's just,
 it is so hard to conceive of the impossible, right? So it's almost limiting to try and
 imagine things that are an order of magnitude, or two orders of magnitude ahead in terms of progress,
 just because you mentioned cars before. If you were to ask people what they wanted in
 1870, it's faster buggies, right? So I think the whole like kind of alien conversation
 inevitably gets limited by our entire kind of collective astrophysical lack of imagination.
 So to push back a little bit, I find that it's really interesting to talk about these wild ideas
 about the future, whether it's aliens, whether it's AI, with brilliant people like yourself,
 who are focused on very particular tools of science we have today,
 to solve very particular rigorous scientific questions. And it's almost like putting on this
 wild dreamy hat some percent of the time and say, what would alien civilizations look like? What
 would alien trash look like? What would our own civilization that sends out trillions of AI systems
 out there, like Hal 9000 or 10,000 out there, what would that look like? And you're right,
 any one prediction is probably going to be horrendously wrong. But there's something about
 creating these kind of wild predictions that kind of opens up.
 There's a huge magnetism to it, right? And some of it, you know, I mean, some of the
 Jules Verne novels did a phenomenal job predicting the future, right? That actually was a great
 example of what you're talking about, like allowing your imagination to run free. I mean,
 I just hope there's dragons. I love dragons. Yeah, dragons are the best.
 But see, the cool thing about science fiction and these kinds of conversations,
 it doesn't just predict the future, I think. Some of these things will create the future.
 Planting the idea, the humans are amazing, like fake it till you make it. Humans are really good
 at taking an idea that seems impossible at the time. And for any one individual human,
 that idea is like planting a seed that eventually materializes itself. It's weird. It's weird how
 science fiction can create science fiction. It drives the science. I agree with you. And I think
 in this regard, you know, I'm like a sucker for sci-fi. It's all I listen to like now when I run.
 And some of it is completely implausible, right? And it's just like, I don't care. It's so funny.
 It's both entertaining and it's just like, it's imagination. You know about the Black
 Clouds book? I think it was by Fred Hoyle. This has great connections with sort of a lot of the
 advancements that are happening in NLP right now, right? With transformer models and so on. But
 you know, it's this Black Cloud shows up in the solar system and then, you know, people try to
 send radio and then it learns to talk back at you. So anyway, we don't have to talk at all about it,
 but it's just, it's something worth checking out. With that on the alien front with the Black Cloud,
 to me, and exactly on the NLP front, and also just explainability of AI, it's fascinating.
 Just the very question, Stephen Wolfram looked at this with the movie Arrival. It's like, what would
 be the common language that we would discover? The reason that's really interesting to me is we have
 aliens here on Earth. Japanese. Japanese is the obvious answer. Japanese, yeah, that would be the
 common, maybe it would be music actually. That's more likely. It wouldn't be language. It would be
 art that they would communicate. But you know, I do believe that we have, I'm with Stephen Wolfram
 on this a little bit, that to me, computation, like programs we write, that, you know, that they're
 kind of intelligent creatures and I feel like we haven't found the common language to talk with them.
 Like our little creations that are artificial are not born with whatever that innate thing that
 produces language without saying, like coming up with mechanisms for communicating with them is an
 effort that feels like it will produce some incredible discoveries. You can even think of,
 if you think that math has discovered, mathematics in itself is a kind of...
 Oh yeah, it's an innate construction of the world we live in. I think we are, you know,
 a part of the way there because pre-1950, right, computers were human beings that would carry out
 arithmetic, right? And I think it was Ulam, who worked in Los Alamos at the time, like towards the
 end of the second world war, wrote something about how, you know, in the future, right, computers will
 not be just arithmetic tool, but will be truly an interactive, you know, thing with which you could
 do experiments, right? At the time, the notion of doing an experiment, not like in the lab with
 some beakers, but an experiment on a computer, designing an experiment, a numerical experiment,
 was a new one. That's like, you know, 70% of what I do is I design, you know, I write code, terrible
 code to be clear, like, but, you know, I write code that creates an experiment, which is a simulation.
 So in that sense, I think we're beginning to interact with the computer in a way that you're
 saying, not as just a, you know, fancy calculator, not as just a, you know, call and request
 type of thing, but, you know, something that can generate insights that are otherwise completely
 unattainable, right? They're unattainable by doing analytical mathematics.
 Yeah, and there's, with AlphaFold 2, we're now trying, we're now starting to crack open biology,
 so being able to simulate at first trivial biological systems and hopefully down the line
 complex biological systems. My hope is to be able to simulate psychological, like sociological
 systems, like humans. You know, a large part of my work at MIT was on autonomous vehicles,
 and the fascinating thing to me was about pedestrians, human pedestrians interacting with
 autonomous vehicles and simulating those systems without murdering humans will be very useful,
 but nevertheless is exceptionally difficult. I would say so. When is my Mustang going to drive
 itself? Right. I'm not even joking. It looks like, yeah. It turns out it's much more difficult than
 we imagined. And I suppose that's the kind of, the progress of science is just like, you know,
 going to Mars, it's probably going to turn out to be way more difficult than we imagined. Sending
 out probes to investigate planet nine at the edge of our solar system might turn out to be way more
 difficult than we imagined, but we do it anyway. We figure it out in the end. It's actually Mars is
 a great, I mean, going, sending humans to Mars, way more complicated than sending humans to the
 moon. You'd think just like naively, both are in space, who cares? Like, if you go there, why
 don't you go there? You know, this life support is an extremely expensive thing. Yeah. There's a bunch
 of extra challenges, but I disagree with you. I would be one of the early people to go. I used
 to think not. I used to think I'd be one of the first maybe million to go once you have a little
 bit of a society. I think I'm upgrading myself to the first like 10,000. That's right. Front of the
 cabin. Not completely front, but like it would be interesting to die. I'm okay with death sucks, but
 I kind of like the idea of dying on Mars. Of all the places to die, I got to say in this regard,
 like I don't want to die on Mars. You don't. No, no, I would much rather die on Earth. I mean,
 death is fundamentally boring, right? Like death is a very boring experience. I mean,
 I've never died before, so I don't know from firsthand experience. As far as you know. Yeah.
 You could be reincarnation, all those kinds of things. So you mean, where would you die
 if you had to choose? Oh man. Okay. So I would definitely, there's a question of who I'd want
 to die with. I'd prefer not to die alone, but like surrounded by family would be preferable.
 Where? I think Northern New Mexico. And I'm not even joking. This is not a random place. It's just
 like- Would that be your favorite place on Earth? Not necessarily like favorite place on Earth to
 reside at indefinitely, but it is one of the most beautiful places I've ever been to.
 So there's something attractive about going- Returning to nature in a beautiful
 place. Let me ask you about another aspect of your life that is full of beauty, music.
 Okay. You're a musician. The absurd question I have to ask, what is the greatest song of all time?
 Objectively speaking. The greatest song of all time. I suppose that could change moment to moment,
 day to day. But if you were forced to answer for this particular moment in your life,
 that's something that pops to mind. This could be both philosophically, this could be technically
 as a musician, like what you enjoy, maybe lyrics. Like for me, lyrics is very important. So I would
 probably, my choice would be lyrics based. I don't want to answer in terms of just technical
 prowess. I think technical prowess is impressive, right? It's just like, it's impressive what can
 be done. I wouldn't place that into the category of the greatest music ever written. Some classical
 music that's written is undeniably beautiful, but I don't want to consider that category of music
 either. Just because, so if I have to limit the scope of this philosophical discussion
 to the kind of music that I listen to, probably What's My Age Again by Blink 182. It's just,
 it's a solid one. It's got, you know. Said nobody ever. That's a good song.
 I don't know if you're joking. No, no, I am joking. It's a good one, but it's, yeah.
 I was thinking back as a close second. What's My Age Again? Oh yeah.
 No, I mean, it would probably, songwriting wise, I think The Beatles came pretty close to-
 Were they influential to you? Absolutely.
 Like The Beatles? Yeah. Love The Beatles. I love The Beatles.
 Let It Be Yesterday. Yeah. Like Strawberry, I think Strawberry Fields Forever is one of,
 you know what one of my favorite Beatles songs is? It's, you know, In My Life, right? That song,
 it's hard to imagine how whatever 24 year old wrote that. It is one of the most
 introspective pieces of music ever. You know, I'm a huge Pink Floyd fan. And so I think,
 you know, if you were to, you can sort of look at the entire Dark Side of the Moon album
 and as, you know, getting pretty close up there to the pinnacle of what, you know, can be created.
 So, you know, Time's a great song. Yeah. It's a great song.
 There's just the entirety of just the instruments, the lyrics, the feeling created by a song.
 Like Pink Floyd can create feelings, the entire experience. I mean, you have that with The Wall
 of just transporting you into another place. Songs don't, not many songs could do that as well.
 Not many artists can do that as well as Pink Floyd did.
 There are a lot of bands that you can kind of say, oh yeah, like if you take Blink-182,
 right? If you have no idea, like if you are listening to sort of that type of pop punk for
 the first time, it's difficult to differentiate between Blink-182 and like Sum 41 and the
 thousand of other like lesser known bands that all sounded, they all had that sparkling production
 feel. They all kind of sounded the same, right? When with Pink Floyd, it's hard to find another
 band that you're like, well, is this one Pink Floyd? Like, you know, when you're listening to
 Pink Floyd, what you're listening to. That's fascinating. The uniqueness,
 that's fascinating. You know, in the calculation of the greatest song in the greatest band of all time,
 you could probably, you probably actually quantify this like scientifically is like how unique,
 if you play different songs, how well are people able to recognize whether it's this band or not?
 And that, you know, that's probably a huge component to greatness. Like if the world would
 miss it, if it was gone. Yes. Yes. So, but there's also the human story things like I would say,
 I'll put Johnny Cash's cover of Hurt as one of the greatest songs of all time. And that has less to
 do with the song, but your interaction with it, interaction with it, but also the human, the full
 story of the human. So like, it's not just, if I just heard the song, it'd be like, okay, that,
 but if it's the full story of it, also the video component for that particular song.
 So like that, you can't discount the full experience of it. Absolutely. You know, I have
 no confusion about not, about being, you know, anywhere, you know, in that lean, but I just,
 like, sometimes think about, you know, music that is being produced today feels, oftentimes feels
 like, like kind of clothes, like clothes that you buy at like H&M and you wear it three times
 before they rip and you throw away. So like, so much of it is, it's not bad. It's just kind of
 forgettable, right? Like the fact that we're talking about Pink Floyd in 2021 is in itself
 an interesting question. Why are we talking about Pink Floyd? And it's, there's something
 unforgettable about them and unforgettable about the art that they created.
 That could be the markets that like, so Spotify's created this kind of market where
 the incentives for creating music that lasts is much lower because there's so much more music.
 You just want something that shines bright for a short amount of time,
 makes a lot of money and moves on. And I mean, the same thing you see with the news and all
 those kinds of things, we're just living in a world where music is so much more
 than just living in a shorter and shorter, shorter like a time scale in terms of our attention spans.
 And that, nevertheless, when we look at the long arc of history of music, perhaps there will be
 some songs from today that will last as much as Pink Floyd. We're just unable to see it.
 Yeah, just the collected works of Nickelback.
 Exactly. You never know. You never know Justin Bieber, it could have, it could be a contender.
 I've recently started listening to Justin Bieber just to understand what people are talking about.
 You know, I'll just keep my comments to myself on that one.
 It's too good to explain in words.
 The words cannot capture the greatness that is the Biebs. You as a musician,
 so you write your own music, you play guitar, you sing. Maybe can you give an overview of the
 role music has played in your life? You're one of the, you're a world-class scientist.
 And so it's kind of fascinating to see somebody in your position who was also a great musician
 and still loves playing music.
 Yeah, well, I wouldn't call myself a great musician.
 I think, you know.
 One of the best of all time.
 That's right.
 Like we were saying offline, confidence is like the most essential thing about being a rock star.
 Exactly. It's the confidence and kind of like moodiness, right?
 Yeah.
 Yeah, look, I mean, music plays an absolutely essential role in everything I do because
 I lose, if I stop playing for one reason or another, say I'm traveling, I notably lose
 creativity in every other aspect of my life, right? I don't view playing music as a separate
 endeavor from doing science or doing whatever. It's all part of that same creative thing,
 which is distinct from, I don't know, pressing a button or like, you know.
 So it's not a break from science. It's a part of your science.
 It's absolutely, it's a part of, it's, I would say, you know,
 it's a thing that enables the science, right? The science would, you know,
 suck even more than it does already without the music.
 And that means like the creating of the, the writing of the music,
 or is it just even playing other people's stuff? Is it the whole of it?
 Yeah, it's definitely both. Yeah, and also just, you know, I love to play guitar,
 I love to sing, you know, my wife tolerates my, my screeching singing, you know,
 and even kind of likes it. Yeah, so people should check out
 your stuff. You have a great voice. So I love, I love your stuff. Is there something you're,
 you're super busy? Is there something you could say about practicing for musicians, for guitar,
 for you're also in a band? So like that whole, how you can manage that? Is there some tricks
 or some hacks to being a lifelong musician while being like super busy?
 So I would say, you know, the way that I optimize my life is I try to, I try to do,
 you know, the thing that I'm passionate about in a moment and put that at the top of the priority
 list. There are moments when, you know, you just, you feel inspired to play music. And if you're in
 the middle of something, if you can avoid, if that can be put on hold, just do it, right? There are
 times when you get inspired about something scientific. You know, I do my best to drop
 everything, go into that, you know, mode of that isolated mode and execute upon that. So it's a
 chaotic, you know, I think I have a pretty chaotic lifestyle where I'm always doing kind of multiple
 things and jumping between what I'm doing. But at the end of the day, it's not like, you know,
 those moments of inspiration are actually kind of rare, right? Like most of the time, all of us are
 just doing kind of, doing the stuff that needs to get done. If you do the disservice to yourself
 of saying, oh, I'm inspired to, you know, do this calculation, figure this out, but I've got to
 answer email or just like do something silly. You know, that is nothing more than disservice.
 And also like I have some social media presence, but I mostly stay off of, you know, social media
 to, you know, just frankly, cause like, I don't enjoy the mental cycles that it takes over.
 Yeah, it robs you of that. Yeah, those precious moments that could be filled with inspiration
 in your other pursuits. But there's something to maybe you and I are different in this. Like
 I try to play at least 10 minutes of guitar every day, almost on the technical side.
 Like keeping that base of basic competence going. And I mean, the same way like writers will get in
 front of a paper, no matter what that kind of thing. It just feels like that for my life has
 been essential to the daily ritual of it. Otherwise days turn into weeks, weeks turn into months,
 and you haven't played guitar for months. No, no, I understand. For me,
 I think it's been like, if we have a gig coming up, we'll definitely-
 You mean deadlines.
 Yeah, that's right. No, like we will sharpen up definitely, you know, especially coming up to a
 gig. It's like, you know, we're not trying to make money with this. This is like just for that
 satisfaction of doing something and doing something well, right? But overall, I think
 overall, I would say most, I play guitar most days, most days. And, you know, when I put kids
 to sleep, I play guitar, you know, with them and we like just make up random songs about,
 you know, about our cat or something, you know, like we just do kind of random stuff. But,
 you know, music is always involved in that process.
 Yeah, keeping it fun. You have Russian roots?
 I sure do.
 Were you born in Russia?
 I was, yeah.
 When did you come here?
 So, I came to the US in the very end of 99, but so I was like almost 14 years old. But along the way,
 we spent six years in Japan. So like we moved from Russia to Japan in 94 and then to the US in 99.
 So then like elementary school.
 Oh, interesting.
 School in Japan.
 So elementary school in Japan.
 Yeah.
 So that's interesting, do you still speak Russian?
 Sure.
 Okay. Do you speak Russian?
 Yes, of course.
 Okay, maybe I'll, let me ask you in Russian, what do you remember about Russia? It'd be interesting
 to hear you speak Russian.
 Yeah, well, I remember, I mean, I was eight when we left. And of course, how to say, I remember
 everything in the first year, including the transition, like 91, 92, this turbulent period,
 and then 93. And I also remember very well how at some point Pepsi Cola appeared first,
 and then Coca Cola appeared. I remember I was six years old, and I thought, how can it be that Coca Cola
 stole the product and did the same thing? I never, I thought for a long time that Pepsi and Coca Cola
 were invented in like 92.
 So for people who don't speak Russian, Konstantin was talking about basically his first in 1992
 interaction with capitalism, which is Pepsi. And at first he discovered Pepsi, and then he discovered
 Coke, and he was confused how such theft could occur.
 Yeah, like an intellectual property theft. And remember, Pepsi arrived to the Soviet Union
 first. And there's some complicated story, which I don't quite understand the details of. For a while,
 Pepsi commanded submarines or something. Yeah, Pepsi had like a fleet of Soviet submarines.
 They were sponsoring tanks and this fessing. And I remember there's certain things that trickled
 in, like McDonald's, I remember that was a big deal. Oh yeah, I remember.
 Absolutely. So we went to McDonald's, and we stood, I mean, this is absurd, right, from
 kind of looking at it from today's perspective, but we stood in line for like six hours to get
 into this McDonald's. And I remember inside, it was just like a billion people, and I'm just taking
 a bite out of that Big Mac. I'm like, wow. What was it, an incredible experience for you?
 So like, what does this taste of the West like? Did you enjoy it?
 I enjoyed the fact that, I mean, this is like, this is getting into the weeds, but I really enjoyed
 the fact that the top of the bun had those seeds, you know, like, and I remember how on the
 commercials, like the Big Mac would kind of bounce. I was like, the seeds, how do they inject the seeds
 into the bread? Like, amazing, right? So I think it was-
 Artistry. You enjoyed the artistry of the culinary experience.
 Exactly. It was the, you know, it was the food art that is the Big Mac.
 Actually, I still don't know the answer to that. How do they get the sesame seeds on the bun?
 It's better to not know the answer. You just wander the mystery of it all.
 Yeah, I remember it being exceptionally delicious, but I'm with you. I don't know,
 you didn't mention how transformative Pepsi was, but to me, basically sugar-based stuff,
 like Pepsi was, or Coke, I don't remember which one we partook in, but that was an incredible
 experience. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. No, absolutely. And, you know, I think it was an important and
 formative period. I sometimes, I guess, rely on that a little bit, you know, in my daily life,
 because I remember, like, the early 90s were real rough, you know, like, my parents were kind of on
 the bottom of the spectrum in terms of, you know, in terms of financial wellbeing. So
 kind of like just when I run into trouble, not like, you know, money trouble, just any kind of
 trouble these days, it just kind of is not particularly meaningful when you compare it
 to that turbulent time of the early 90s. And the other thing is, I think there's like an
 advantage to being, you know, an immigrant, which is that you go through the mental exercise of
 changing your environment completely early in your life, right? You go, it's by no means, you know,
 pleasant in the moment, right? But like going into Japanese elementary school, right? Like,
 I didn't go to some like private, you know, thing. I just went to a regular, like, Japanese public
 elementary school, and that was the non-Japanese person in my class. So just like the learning
 Japanese and just kind of... So that's a super humbling experience in many ways, was when you
 like made fun of all that kind of stuff, being the outsider. Oh, absolutely. But, you know, you kind
 of do that, and then you kind of then you just kind of are okay with stuff, you know what I mean?
 And so like doing that again in middle school in the US, it was arguably easy because I was like,
 yeah, well, I've already done this before. So I think it kind of prepares you mentally a little
 bit for switching up, for whatever, you know, changes that will come up for the rest of your
 life. So I wouldn't trade that experience really for anything. It's a huge aspect of who I am,
 and I'm sure you can relate to a lot of this. Yes. Is there advice from your life that you can give
 to young people today, high school, college, you know, about their career or maybe about life in
 general? I'm not like a career coach by... A life coach. Right, like I'm definitely not a life coach.
 I don't have it all figured out. But I think there's a perpetual cycle of, you know, thinking that
 there is a... There's kind of like a template for success, right? Maybe there is, but in my
 experience, I haven't seen it, right? You know, I would say people in high school, right?
 So much of their focus is on getting straight A's, filling their CV with this and this and this,
 so that it looks impressive, right? That is not, I think, a good way to optimize your life, right?
 Do the thing that fills your life with passion. Do the thing that fills your life with interest,
 and, you know, do that perpetually, right? A straight A student, you know, is really impressive,
 but also, you know, somewhat boring, right? So I think, you know, injection of more of that
 kind of interest into the lives of young people would go a long way in just both upping their
 level of happiness and then just kind of ensuring that, looking forward, they're not suffering from
 a perpetual condition of, oh, I have to satisfy these, like, you know, check boxes to do well,
 right? Because you can lose yourself in that whole process for the rest of your life,
 but it's nice if it's possible, like Max Tegmark was exceptionally good at this at MIT,
 figure out how you can spend a small part of your time, you know, in the world,
 your percent of your efforts that such that your CV looks really impressive.
 Yeah, absolutely. There's no, like, without a doubt, like, that's a baseline that you need to have.
 And then spend, so like, spend most of your time doing, like, amazing things you're passionate
 about, but such that it kind of like Planet 9 produces objects that feed your CV, like,
 slowly over time. So getting good grades in high school, maybe doing extracurricular activities, or
 or in terms of, like, you know, for programmers that's producing code that you can show up on
 GitHub, like, leaving traces, like, throughout your efforts such that your CV looks impressive
 to the rest of the world. In fact, I mean, this is somewhat along the lines of what I'm talking about.
 We see, like, getting, like, good grades is important, but grades are not a tangible, like, product.
 Right. Like, you cannot out, you know, show your A and have your A live a separate life from you.
 Code very much does, right? Music very much takes on, you know, provided somebody else listens to it,
 right? Provide, like, takes on a life of its own. That's kind of what I mean, right? Doing,
 doing stuff that can then get separated from you is exceptionally attractive, right? It's like a fun
 and... And it's also very impressive to others. I think we're moving to a world where grades mean
 less and less, like, certifications mean less and less. If you look at, especially again,
 in the computing fields, getting a degree, finishing your, currently just finishing your degree,
 whether it's bachelor's or master's or PhD, is less important than the things you've actually put
 out into the world. Right, right. And that's a fascinating kind of... That's great that, in that
 sense, the meritocracy is in its richest, most beautiful form is starting to win out. Yeah,
 it's weird, because, like, you know, my understanding, and I'm not, like, I don't know
 the history of science well enough to speak very confidently about this, but, you know, the
 advisor of my advisor, of my advisor from undergrad, like, didn't have a PhD. Right,
 so I think it was a more common thing back in the day, even in the academic sector, to,
 you know, not have, you know, Faraday, like, Faraday didn't know algebra, right, and drew
 diagrams about, you know, magnetic fields, and, like, his Faraday's law was derived entirely from
 intuition. So, it is interesting to how the world of academia has evolved into a, you gotta do this
 and then get PhD, then you have to postdoc once and twice and maybe thrice, and then, like, you
 move on. So, you know, it does, I do wonder, you know, if we're, you know, if there's a better,
 I think we're heading there, but it's a fascinating historical perspective, like, that we might have
 just tried this whole thing out for a while, where we put a lot more emphasis on grades and
 certificates and degrees and all those kinds of things. I think the difference historically is,
 like, we can actually, using the internet, show off the, show off ourselves and our creations
 better and better and more effectively, whether that's code or producing videos or all those
 kinds of things. That's right. You can become a certified drone pilot. Of all the things you
 want to pick, yeah, for sure. Or you could just fly and make YouTube videos against hundreds of
 thousands of views with your drone and it would never be a problem. And then, you know, you can
 make videos against hundreds of thousands of views with your drone and never getting a certificate.
 That's probably illegal. Don't do it. What do you think is the meaning of this whole thing?
 So, you look at planets. They seem to orbit stuff without asking the why question. And for some
 reason, life emerged on Earth such that it led to big brains that can ask the big why question.
 I think there's an answer to it. I'm not sure what the question is.
 Meaning of life? The meaning of life. It's 42.
 It's 42. Yeah. But, you know, aside from that, it's, you know, why, I think if the question
 you're asking is like, why we do all this, right? Why we do all this.
 It's part of the human condition, right? Human beings are fundamentally,
 I feel like, sort of stochastic and fundamentally interested in kind of expanding our own
 understanding of the world around us. And creating stuff to enable that understanding.
 So we're like stochastic, fundamentally stochastic. So like there's just a bunch of randomness
 that really doesn't seem like it has a good explanation. And yet there's a kind of direction
 to our being that we just keep wanting to create and to understand.
 That's right. I've met people that claim to be anti-science, right? And yet in their anti-science
 discussion, I'm like, well, like, if you're so, you know, scientific, then why don't you explain
 to me how, I don't know, this works. And like it always, there's that fundamental seed of
 curiosity and interest that is common to all of us. That is absolutely what makes us human, right?
 And I'm in a privileged position of being able to, you know, to have that be my job, right? I think
 as, you know, as time evolves forward, you know, the kind of economy changes, I mean, we're already
 starting to see, you know, a shift towards that type of, you know, creative enterprise as being,
 as emerging, taking over a bigger and bigger chunk of the sector. It's not yet, I think, the dominant
 portion of the economy by any account, but if we compare this to like, you know, the time when the
 dominant thing you would do would be to, you know, go to a factory and do the same exact thing,
 right? I think, you know, there's a tide there and things are sort of headed in that direction.
 Yeah, life's becoming more and more fun. I can't wait. Honestly, what happens next?
 You can't wait to just chill.
 Just chill.
 The terminal point of this is you just chill and wait for those Kuiper Belt objects to complete
 one orbit.
 I'm going to credit you with this idea. I do hope that we definitively discover a proof that there
 is a Planet Nine out there in the next few years so you can sit back with a cigar or a cigarette or
 vodka or wine and just say, I told you so.
 That's already happening. I'm going to do that later today.
 As I mentioned, confidence is essential to being a rock star. I really appreciate you explaining so
 many fascinating things to me today. I really appreciate the work that you do out there and
 I really appreciate you talking with me today.
 It was a pleasure. Thanks for having me on.
 Thanks for listening to this conversation with Konstantin Batygin and thank you to
 Squarespace, Literati, Onnit, and Ni. Check them out in the description to support this podcast.
 Now, let me leave you with some words from Douglas Adams in The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy.
 Far out in the uncharted backwaters of the unfashionable end of the western spiral arm
 of the galaxy lies a small, unregarded yellow sun.
 Orbiting this at a distance of roughly 92 million miles is an utterly insignificant little blue-green
 planet whose ape-descendant lifeforms are so amazingly primitive that they still think
 digital watches are a pretty neat idea.
 Thank you for listening and hope to see you next time.