Michael Littman: Reinforcement Learning and the Future of AI | Lex Fridman Podcast #144
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Michael Littman is a computer scientist at Brown University. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors:
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OUTLINE:
0:00 - Introduction
2:30 - Robot and Frank
4:50 - Music
8:01 - Starring in a TurboTax commercial
18:14 - Existential risks of AI
36:36 - Reinforcement learning
1:02:24 - AlphaGo and David Silver
1:12:03 - Will neural networks achieve AGI?
1:24:30 - Bitter Lesson
1:37:20 - Does driving require a theory of mind?
1:46:46 - Book Recommendations
1:52:08 - Meaning of life

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 The following is a conversation with Michael Litman, a computer science professor at Brown University doing research on and teaching machine learning, reinforcement learning, and artificial intelligence. He enjoys being silly and lighthearted in conversation, so this was definitely a fun one. Quick mention of each sponsor, followed by some thoughts related to the episode. Thank you to SimpliSafe, a home security company I use to monitor and protect my apartment, ExpressVPN, the VPN I've used for many years to protect my privacy and the internet, Masterclass, online courses that I enjoy from some of the most amazing humans in history, and BetterHelp, online therapy with a licensed professional. Please check out these sponsors in the description to get a discount and to support this podcast. As a side note, let me say that I may experiment with doing some solo episodes in the coming month or two. The three ideas I have floating in my head currently is to use one, a particular moment in history, two, a particular movie, or three, a book to drive a conversation about a set of related concepts. For example, I could use 2001, a space Odyssey or Ex Machina to talk about AGI for one, two, three hours, or I could do an episode on the, yes, rise and fall of Hitler and Stalin, each in a separate episode, using relevant books and historical moments for reference. I find the format of a solo episode very uncomfortable and challenging, but that just tells me that it's something I definitely need to do and learn from the experience. Of course, I hope you come along for the ride. Also, since we have all this momentum built up on announcements, I'm giving a few lectures on machine learning at MIT this January. In general, if you have ideas for the episodes, for the lectures, or for just short videos on YouTube, let me know in the comments that I still definitely read despite my better judgment and the wise sage device of the great Joe Rogan. If you enjoy this thing, subscribe on YouTube, review it with Five Stars on Apple Podcast, follow on Spotify, support on Patreon, or connect with me on Twitter at Lex Friedman. And now here's my conversation with Michael Lidman. I saw a video of you talking to Charles Isbell about Westworld, the TV series. You guys were doing a kind of thing where you're watching new things together, but let's rewind back. Is there a sci-fi movie or book or shows that was profound, that had an impact on you philosophically, or just specifically something you enjoyed nerding out about? Yeah, interesting. I think a lot of us have been inspired by robots in movies. One that I really like is there's a movie called Robot and Frank, which I think is really interesting because it's very near-term future where robots are being deployed as helpers in people's homes. And we don't know how to make robots like that at this point, but it seemed very plausible. It seemed very realistic or imaginable. I thought that was really cool because they're awkward, they do funny things, that raise some interesting issues, but it seemed like something that would ultimately be helpful and good if we could do it right. Yeah, he was an older cranky gentleman. He was an older cranky jewel thief. Yeah. It's kind of funny little thing, which is, he's a jewel thief and so he pulls the robot into his life, which is something you could imagine taking a home robotics thing and pulling into whatever quirky thing that's involved in your existence. It's meaningful to you. Exactly so. Yeah. And I think from that perspective, not all of us are jewel thieves and so when we bring our robots into our lives- Speak for yourself. Yeah. It explains a lot about this apartment, actually. But no, the idea that people should have the ability to make this technology their own, that it becomes part of their lives. And I think it's hard for us as technologists to make that kind of technology. It's easier to mold people into what we need them to be. And just that opposite vision, I think, is really inspiring. And then there's anthropomorphization where we project certain things on them because I think the robot was kind of dumb, but I have a bunch of Roombas that play with and you immediately project stuff onto them, but much greater level of intelligence. We'll probably do that with each other too. Much greater degree of compassion. That's right. One of the things we're learning from AI is where we are smart and where we are not smart. Yeah. You also enjoy, as people can see, and I enjoyed myself watching you sing and even dance a little bit, a little bit of dancing. A little bit of dancing. That's not quite my thing. As a method of education or just in life, in general. So easy question. What's the definitive, objectively speaking, top three songs of all time? Maybe something that, to walk that back a little bit, maybe something that others might be surprised by, the three songs that you kind of enjoy. That is a great question that I cannot answer, but instead let me tell you a story. Pick a question you do want to answer. That's right. I've been watching the presidential debates and vice presidential debates and it turns out, yeah, you can just answer any question you want. So, let's just say, let me interrupt you. It's a related question. Yeah, well said. I really like pop music. I've enjoyed pop music ever since I was very young. So, 60s music, 70s music, 80s music, this is all awesome. And then I had kids and I think I stopped listening to music and I was starting to realize that my musical taste had sort of frozen out. And so I decided in 2011, I think, to start listening to the top 10 Billboard songs each week. So I'd be on the treadmill and I would listen to that week's top 10 songs so I could find out what was popular now. And what I discovered is that I have no musical taste whatsoever. I like what I'm familiar with. And so the first time I'd hear a song is the first week that was on the charts. I'd be like, and then the second week I was into it a little bit and the third week I was loving it. And by the fourth week is like just part of me. And so I'm afraid that I can't tell you my favorite song of all time because it's whatever I heard most recently. Yeah, that's interesting. People have told me that there's an art to listening to music as well. And you can start to, if you listen to a song, just carefully, explicitly just force yourself to really listen. You start to, I did this when I was part of jazz band and fusion band in college. You start to hear the layers of the instruments. You start to hear the individual instruments. You can listen to classical music or to orchestra this way. You can listen to jazz this way. I mean, it's funny to imagine you now to walk in that forward to listening to pop hits now as like a scholar listening to like Cardi B or something like that or Justin Timberlake. Is he, no, not Timberlake, Bieber. They've both been in the top 10 since I've been listening. They're still up there. Oh my God, I'm so cool. If you haven't heard Justin Timberlake's top 10 in the last few years, there was one song that he did where the music video was set at essentially NURIPS. Oh, wow. Oh, the one with the robotics. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It's like at an academic conference and he's doing a demo. It was sort of a cross between the Apple, like Steve Jobs kind of talk and NURIPS. So I, you know, it's always fun when AI shows up in pop culture. I wonder if he consulted somebody for that. That's very, that's really interesting. So maybe on that topic, I've seen your, um, your, your celebrity multiple dimensions, but one of them is you've done cameos in different places. I've seen you in a TurboTax commercial as like, I guess, the, the brilliant Einstein character. And the point is that TurboTax doesn't need somebody like you. It doesn't need a brilliant person. Very few things need someone like me, but yes, they were specifically emphasizing the idea that you don't need to be a, like a computer expert to be able to use their software. How'd you end up in that world? I think it's an interesting story. So I was teaching my class. It was an intro computer science class for non-concentrators, non-majors. And, uh, sometimes when people would visit campus, they would check in to say, hey, we want to see what a class is like. Can we sit on your class? So, uh, a person came to my class who was the daughter of the brother of the husband of the best friend of my wife. Anyway, basically a family friend came to campus to, to check out Brown and asked to come to my class and came with her dad. Her dad is, uh, who I've known from various kinds of family events and so forth, but he also does advertising. And he said that he was recruiting scientists for this, this, this ad, this, this TurboTax set of ads. And he said, we wrote the ad with the idea that we get like the most brilliant researchers. Um, but they all said no. So can you help us find the B level scientists? I'm like, sure. That's, that's who I hang out with. So that should be fine. So I put together a list and I did what some people call the dictainee. So I included myself on the list of possible candidates, uh, you know, with a little blurb about each one and why I thought that would make sense for them to do it. And they reached out to a handful of them, but then they ultimately, they YouTube stalked me a little bit and they thought, oh, I think he could do this. And, um, they said, okay, we're, we're going to offer you the commercial. I'm like, what? So, um, it was, it was such an interesting experience because it's, it's, they have another world. The people who do like nationwide kind of ad campaigns and, and television shows and movies and so forth. It's quite a, a remarkable system that they have going because they have a set. Yeah. So I went to, uh, it was just somebody's house that they rented in New Jersey. Um, but in the, in the commercial, it's just me and this other woman. In reality, there were 50 people in that room and another, I don't know, half a dozen kind of spread out around the house in various ways. There were people whose job it was to control the sun. They were in the backyard on ladders, putting, uh, filters up to try to make sure that the sun didn't glare off the window in a way that would wreck the shot. So there was like six people out there doing that. There was three people out there giving snacks, the craft table. There was another three people giving healthy snacks because that was a separate craft table. There was one person whose job it was to keep me from getting lost. And the, I think the reason for all this is because so many people are in one place at one time. They have to be time efficient. They have to get it done. The morning they were going to do my commercial in the afternoon, they were going to do a commercial of a mathematics professor from Princeton. They had to get it done. No, you know, no wasted time or energy. And so there's just a fleet of people all working as an organism. And it was fascinating. I was just the whole time, just looking around like, this is so neat. Like one person whose job it was to take the camera off of the cameraman so that someone else whose job it was to remove the film canister. Cause every couple's takes, they had to replace the film because you know, film gets used up. It was just, it was just, I don't know. I was geeking out the whole time. It was so fun. How many takes did it take? It looked the opposite. Like there was more than two people there. It was very relaxed. Right. Yeah. I mean, the person who I was in the scene with is a professional. She's a, you know, improv comedian from New York city. And then when I got there, they had given me a script as such as it was. And then I got there and they said, we're going to do this as improv. I'm like, I don't know how to improv. Like this is not, I don't know what this, I don't know what you're telling me to do here. Don't worry. She knows. Okay. We'll see how this goes. I guess I got pulled into the story because like, where the heck did you come from? I guess in the scene, like how did you show up in this random person's house? I don't know. Yeah. Well, I mean, the reality of it is I stood outside in the blazing sun. There was someone whose job it was to keep an umbrella over me because I started to sweat. I started to sweat. And so I would wreck the shot because my face was all shiny with sweat. So there was one person who would dab me off at an umbrella. But yeah, like the reality of it, like, why is this strange stalkery person hanging around outside somebody's house? We're not sure when you have to look in what the ways for the book, but are you, uh, so you make, you make, like you said, YouTube, you make videos yourself, you make awesome parody sort of, uh, parody songs that kind of focus in a particular aspect of computer science. How much those seem really natural. Uh, how much production value goes into that? Do you also have a team of 50 people? The videos, almost all the videos, except for the ones that people would have actually seen were, are just me. I write the lyrics, I sing the song. I generally find a, um, like a backing track online because I'm, I'm like, you can't really play an instrument. And then I do, in some cases I'll do visuals using just like PowerPoint, PowerPoint, lots and lots of PowerPoint to make it sort of like an animation. The, the most produced one is the one that people might've seen, which is the overfitting video that I did with Charles Isbell. Um, and that was produced by the Georgia tech and Udacity people because we were doing a class together. It was kind of, I usually do parody songs kind of to cap off a class at the end of a class. So that one you're wearing, so it was just a thriller. Yeah. You're wearing the Michael Jackson, the red leather jacket. The interesting thing with, with podcasting that you're also into is, uh, that I really enjoy is that there's not a team of people. It's kind of more, cause you know, the, the, the, there's something that happens when there's more people involved in just one person that just the way you start acting, I don't know, there's a censorship you're not given, especially for like slow thinkers like me, you're not. And I think most of us are, if we're trying to actually think we're a little bit slow and, and careful, it kind of large teams get in the way of that. And I don't know what to do with it. Like that's the, to me, like if, you know, there's, it's very popular to criticize, quote unquote, mainstream media. I, but there is legitimacy to criticizing them the same, I love listening to NPR, for example, but every it's clear that there's a team behind it. There's a commerce, there's constant commercial breaks. There's this kind of like rush of like, uh, okay, I have to interrupt you now because we have to go to commercial, just this whole, it creates, it destroys the possibility of nuanced conversation. Yeah, exactly. Evian, uh, which Charles, uh, is both what I talked to you yesterday, told me that Evian is naive backwards, which the fact that his mind thinks this way is just, uh, it's quite brilliant. Anyway, there's a freedom to this podcast. He's Dr. Awkward, which by the way, is a palindrome. That's a palindrome that I happen to know for, from other parts of my life. And I just, well, you know, use it against Charles. Dr. Awkward. So what, uh, what was the most challenging parody song to make? Was it the thriller one? No, that was really fun. I wrote the lyrics really quickly. Um, and then I gave it over to the production team. They recruited a a cappella group to sing that one. It went really smoothly. It's great having a team because then you can just focus on the part that you really love, which in my case is writing the lyrics. Uh, for me, the most challenging one, not challenging in a bad way, but challenging in a really fun way was, uh, I did one of the, one of the parody songs I did is, is about the halting problem in computer science. The, the, the fact that you can't create a program that can tell for any other arbitrary program, whether it actually going to get stuck in an infinite loop or whether it's going to eventually stop. And so I, I did it to an 80s song because that's, I hadn't started my, my new thing of learning current songs and it was Billy Joel's the piano man, which is a great song. Yeah. Yeah. And sing me a song. You're the piano man. Yeah. So the lyrics are great because first of all, it rhymes, uh, not all songs rhyme. I did, I've done Rolling Stone songs, which turn out to have no rhyme scheme whatsoever. They're just sort of yelling and having a good time, which it makes it not fun from a parody perspective. Cause like, you can say anything, but the, you know, the lines rhymed and there was a lot of internal rhymes as well. And so figuring out how to sing with internal rhymes, a proof of the halting problem was really challenging. And, uh, it was, I really enjoyed that process. What about, uh, last question this topic, what about the dancing in the thriller video? How many takes that take? So I wasn't planning to dance. They, they, they had to do the dance. They had to do the dance. They, they had me in the studio and they gave me the jacket and it's like, well, you can't, if you have the jacket and the glove, like there's not much you can do. So I, um, I think I just danced around and then they said, why don't you dance a little bit? We, we, there was a scene with me and Charles dancing together. They did not use it in the video, but we recorded it. Um, yeah, yeah, no, it was, it was pretty funny. And Charles who has this beautiful, wonderful voice doesn't really sing. He's not really a singer. And so that was why I designed the song with him doing a spoken section and me doing the same. It's very like Barry White. Yeah. It was smooth baritone. Yeah. Yeah. It's great. That was awesome. So one of the other things Charles said is that, you know, everyone knows you as like a super nice guy, super passionate about teaching and so on. Um, what he said, don't know if it's true that despite the fact that you're, you are super cold blood, like, okay, I will admit this finally for the first time that was, that was me. It's the Johnny Cash song. It was a man in Reno just to watch him die. Uh, that you actually do have some strong opinions and some topics. So if this in fact is true, what, uh, strong opinions would you say you have? Is there ideas you think maybe in artificial intelligence and machine learning, maybe in life that you believe is true that others might, you know, some number of people might disagree with you on? So I try very hard to see things from multiple perspectives. There's, there's this great Calvin and Hobbes, Calvin and Hobbes cartoon where do you know? Okay. So Calvin's dad is always kind of a bit of a foil and he, he was, he talked Calvin into, Calvin had done something wrong. The dad talks him into like seeing it from another perspective and Calvin, like this breaks Calvin because he's like, Oh my gosh, now I can see the opposite sides of things. And so the, it's, it becomes like a Cubist cartoon where there is no front and back, everything's just exposed and it really freaks him out. And finally he settles back down. It's like, Oh good. No, I can make that go away. But like, I'm that, I'm that I live in that world where I've tried, I'm trying to see everything from every perspective all the time. So there are some things that I've formed opinions about that I would be harder, I think to disavow me of. One is the super intelligence argument and the existential threat of AI is one where I feel pretty confident in my feeling about that one. Like I'm willing to hear other arguments, but like I am not particularly moved by the idea that if we're not careful, we will accidentally create a super intelligence that will destroy human life. Let's talk about that. Let's get you in trouble and record your video. It's like Bill Gates, I think he said like some quote about the internet that that's just going to be a small thing. It's not going to really go anywhere. And then I think Steve Ballmer said, I don't know why I'm sticking on Microsoft. That's something that like smartphones are useless. There's no reason why Microsoft should get into smartphones that kind of. So let's get, let's talk about AGI as AGI is destroying the world. We'll look back at this video and see no, I think it's really interesting to actually talk about because nobody really knows the future. So you have to use your best intuition. It's very difficult to predict it, but you have spoken about AGI and the existential risks around it and sort of based on your intuition that we're quite far away from that being a serious concern relative to the other concerns we have. Can you maybe unpack that a little bit? Yeah, sure, sure, sure. So as I understand it, for example, I read Bostrom's book and a bunch of other reading material about this sort of general way of thinking about the world. And I think the story goes something like this, that we will at some point create computers that are smart enough that they can help design the next version of themselves, which itself will be smarter than the previous version of themselves and eventually bootstrapped up to being smarter than us. At which point we are essentially at the mercy of this sort of more powerful intellect, which in principle, we don't have any control over what its goals are. And so if its goals are at all out of sync with our goals, like the, for example, the continued existence of humanity, we won't be able to stop it. It'll be way more powerful than us and we will be toast. So there's some, I don't know, very smart people who have signed on to that story. And it's a compelling story. I once, now I can really get myself in trouble. I once wrote an op-ed about this, specifically responding to some quotes from Elon Musk, who has been on this very podcast more than once. And- AI summoning the demon. I forget there's a- That's a thing he said, but then he came to Providence, Rhode Island, which is where I live, and said to the governors of all the states, you're worried about entirely the wrong thing. You need to be worried about AI. You need to be very, very worried about AI. So, and journalists kind of reacted to that and they wanted to get people's take. And I was like, okay, my belief is that one of the things that makes Elon Musk so successful and so remarkable as an individual is that he believes in the power of ideas. He believes that you can have, you can, if you have a really good idea for getting into space, you can get into space. If you have a really good idea for a company or for how to change the way that people drive, you just have to do it and it can happen. It's really natural to apply that same idea to AI. You see these systems that are doing some pretty remarkable computational tricks, demonstrations, and then to take that idea and just push it all the way to the limit and think, okay, where does this go? Where is this going to take us next? And if you're a deep believer in the power of ideas, then it's really natural to believe that those ideas could be taken to the extreme and kill us. So I think, you know, his strength is also his undoing because that doesn't mean it's true. Like it doesn't mean that that has to happen, but it's natural for him to think that. So another way to phrase the way he thinks, and I find it very difficult to argue with that line of thinking. So Sam Harris is another person from your science perspective that thinks like that is saying, well, is there something fundamental in the physics of the universe that prevents this from eventually happening? And Nick Bostrom thinks in the same way that kind of zooming out, yeah, okay, we humans now are existing in this like time scale of minutes and days. And so our intuition is in this time scale of minutes, hours, and days. But if you look at the span of human history, is there any reason we don't have to do that? Is there any reason we can't see this in a hundred years? And like, is there something fundamental about the laws of physics that prevent this? And if it doesn't, then it eventually will happen, or we will destroy ourselves in some other way. And it's very difficult, I find, to actually argue against that. And not sound like you're just rolling your ass. It's science fiction, we don't have to think about it. But even worse than that, which is like, I don't know if kids, but like I got to pick up my kids now. I see, there's more pressing short term. Yeah, there's more pressing short term things that stop it with this existential crisis. We have much shorter things like now, especially this year, there's COVID. So like any kind of discussion like that is like there's, you know, there's pressing things today. And then so the Sam Harris argument, well, like any day, the exponential singularity can occur, is very difficult to argue against. I mean, I don't know. But part of his story is also, he's not going to put a date on it. It could be in a thousand years, it could be in a hundred years, it could be in two years. It's just that as long as we keep making this kind of progress, it's ultimately has to become a concern. I kind of I'm on board with that. But the thing that the piece that I feel like is missing from that, that way of extrapolating from the moment that we're in, is that I believe that in the process of actually developing technology that can really get around in the world and really process and do things in the world in a sophisticated way, we're going to learn a lot about what that means, which that we don't know now, because we don't know how to do this right now. If you believe that you can just turn on a deep learning network and eventually give it enough compute and it'll eventually get there. Well, sure, that seems really scary, because we won't we won't be in the loop at all. We won't we won't be helping to design or target these kinds of systems. But I don't I don't see that. That feels like it is against the laws of physics, because these systems need help, right? They need they need to surpass the the the difficulty, the wall of complexity that happens in arranging something in the form that that will happen. And yeah, like I believe in evolution, like I believe that the that that there's an argument, right? So there's another argument, just to look at it from a different perspective, that people say, well, I don't believe in evolution, how could evolution, it's it's sort of like a random set of parts, assemble themselves into a 747. And that could just never happen. So it's like, okay, that's maybe hard to argue against. But clearly, 747s do get assembled, they get assembled by us. Basically, the idea being that there's a process by which we will get to the point of making technology that has that kind of awareness. And in that process, we're going to learn a lot about that process. And we'll have more ability to control it or to shape it or to build it in our own image. It's not something that is going to spring into existence like that 747. And we're just gonna have to contend with it, completely unprepared. That's very possible that in the context of the long arc of human history, it will in fact spring into existence. But that's that's bringing might take like if you look at nuclear weapons, like even 20 years is a springing in the context of human history. And it's very possible just like with nuclear weapons that we could have, I don't know what percentage you want to put at it. But the possibility of could have knocked ourselves out. Yeah, the possibility of human beings destroying themselves in the 20th century. With nuclear weapons, I don't know, you can if you really think through it, you could really put it close to like, I don't know, 30 40%, given like the certain moments of crisis that happened. So like, I think one, like fear in the shadows that's not being acknowledged, is it's not so much the AI will run away, is that as it's running away, we won't have enough time to think through how to stop it. Right, fast takeoff or foom. Yeah, I mean, my much bigger concern, I wonder what you think about it, which is we won't know it's happening. So I kind of think that there's an AGI situation already happening with social media, that our minds, our collective intelligence of human civilization is already being controlled by an algorithm. And like, we're already super like, the level of collective intelligence, thanks to Wikipedia, people should donate to Wikipedia, and we should donate to Wikipedia to feed the AGI. Man, if we had a super intelligence that was in line with Wikipedia's values, that it's a lot better than a lot of other things I could imagine. I trust Wikipedia more than I trust Facebook or YouTube, as far as trying to do the right thing from a rational perspective. Now, that's not where you were going. I understand that. But it does strike me that there's sort of smarter and less smart ways of exposing ourselves to each other on the internet. Yeah, the interesting thing is that Wikipedia and social media have very different forces. You're right. I mean, Wikipedia, if AGI was Wikipedia, it'd be just like this cranky, overly competent editor of articles. You know, there's something to that. But the social media aspect is not... So the vision of AGI is as a separate system that's super intelligent. That's super intelligent. That's one key little thing. I mean, there's the paperclip argument that's super dumb, but super powerful systems. But with social media, you have a relatively like algorithms we may talk about today, very simple algorithms that when something Charles talks a lot about, which is interactive AI, when they start like having at scale, like tiny little interactions with human beings, they can start controlling these human beings. So a single algorithm can control the minds of human beings slowly to what we might not realize. It could start wars. It could start, it could change the way we think about things. It feels like in the long arc of history, if I were to sort of zoom out from all the outrage and all the tension on social media, that it's progressing us towards better and better things. It feels like chaos and toxic and all that kind of stuff. But it's chaos and toxic. Yeah. But it feels like actually the chaos and toxic is similar to the kind of debates we had from the founding of this country. There's a civil war that happened over that period. And ultimately it was all about this tension of like, something doesn't feel right about our implementation of the core values we hold as human beings. And they're constantly struggling with this. And that results in people calling each other, just being shady to each other on Twitter. But ultimately the algorithm is managing all that. And it feels like there's a possible future in which that algorithm controls us into the direction of self-destruction and whatever that looks like. Yeah. So, all right. I do believe in the power of social media to screw us up royally. I do believe in the power of social media to benefit us too. I do think that we're in a, yeah, it sort of almost got dropped on top of us. And now we're trying to, as a culture, figure out how to cope with it. There's a sense in which, I don't know, there's some arguments that say that, for example, I guess college-age students now, late college-age students now, people who were in middle school when social media started to really take off, maybe really damaged. This may have really hurt their development in a way. In a way that we don't have all the implications of quite yet. That's the generation who, and I hate to make it somebody else's responsibility, but they're the ones who can fix it. They're the ones who can figure out how do we keep the good of this kind of technology without letting it eat us alive? And if they're successful, we move on to the next phase, the next level of the game. If they're not successful, then yeah, then we're going to wreck each other. We're going to destroy society. So you're going to, in your old age, sit on a porch and watch the world burn because of the TikTok generation that- I believe, well, so this is my kid's age, right? And certainly my daughter's age, and she's very tapped in to social stuff, but she's also, she's trying to find that balance, right? Of participating in it and in getting the positives of it, but without letting it eat her alive. And I think sometimes she ventures, I hope she doesn't watch this. Sometimes I think she ventures a little too far and is consumed by it, and other times she gets a little distance. And if there's enough people like her out there, they're going to navigate this choppy waters. That's an interesting skill actually to develop. I talked to my dad about it. I've now, somehow this podcast in particular, but other reasons has received a little bit of attention. And with that, apparently in this world, even though I don't shut up about love and I'm just all about kindness, I have now a little mini army of trolls. It's kind of hilarious actually, but it also doesn't feel good. But it's a skill to learn to not look at that, like to moderate actually how much you look at that. The discussion I have with my dad, it's similar to, it doesn't have to be about trolls. It could be about checking email, which is like if you're anticipating, you know, there's, my dad runs a large Institute at Drexel University and there could be stressful emails you're waiting. There's drama of some kinds. And so there's a temptation to check the email. If you send an email and you kind of, and that pulls you in into, it doesn't feel good. And it's a skill that he actually complains that he hasn't learned. I mean, he grew up without it. So he hasn't learned the skill of how to shut off the internet and walk away. And I think young people, while they're also being quote unquote damaged by like being bullied online, all of those stories, which are very like horrific. You basically can't escape your bullies these days when you're growing up. But at the same time, they're also learning that skill of how to be able to shut off the, like disconnect with it, be able to laugh at it, not take it too seriously. It's a fascinating, like we're all trying to figure this out. Just like you said, it's been dropped on us and we're trying to figure it out. Yeah, I think that's really interesting. And I guess I've become a believer in the human design, which I feel like I don't completely understand. Like how do you make something as robust as us? Like we're so flawed in so many ways and yet, and yet, you know, we dominate the planet and we do seem to manage to get ourselves out of scrapes eventually, not necessarily the most elegant possible way, but somehow we get, we get to the next step. And I don't know how I'd make a machine do that. I, I, I generally speaking, like if I train one of my reinforcement learning agents to play a video game and it works really hard on that first stage over and over and over again, and it makes it through it, it succeeds on that first level. And then the new level comes and it's just like, okay, I'm back to the drawing board. And somehow humanity, we keep leveling up and then somehow managing to put together the skills necessary to achieve success, some semblance of success in that next level too. And, you know, I hope we can keep doing that. You mentioned reinforcement learning. So you've have a couple of years in the field. No, you know, quite a few, quite a long career in artificial intelligence broadly, but reinforcement learning specifically. Can you maybe give a hint about your sense of the history of the field and in some ways it's changed with the advent of deep learning, but as a long roots, like how is it weaved in and out of your own life? How have you seen the community change or maybe the ideas that it's playing with change? I've had the privilege, the pleasure of being, of having almost a front row seat to a lot of this stuff. And it's been really, really fun and interesting. So when I was in college in the eighties, early eighties, I was in the eighties, early eighties, the neural net thing was starting to happen. And I was taking a lot of psychology classes and a lot of computer science classes as a college student. And I thought, you know, something that can play tic-tac-toe and just like learn to get better at it, that ought to be a really easy thing. So I spent almost all of my, what would have been vacations during college, like hacking on my home computer, trying to teach it how to play tic-tac-toe and- Programming language. Basic. Oh yeah. That's my first language. That's my native language. Is that when you first fell in love with computer science? Just like programming basic on that? What was the computer? Do you remember? I had a TRS-80 Model 1 before they were called Model 1s, because there was nothing else. I got my computer in 1979. So I would have been bar mitzvahed, but instead of having a big party that my parents threw on my behalf, they just got me a computer. Cause that's what I really, really, really wanted. I saw them in the mall in Rearshack and I thought, what, how are they doing that? I would try to stump them. I would give them math problems, like one plus and then in parentheses, two plus one. And it would always get it right. I'm like, how do you know so much? That's a message. I've had to go to algebra class for the last few years to learn this stuff and you just seem to know. So I was smitten and got a computer. And I think ages 13 to 15, I have no memory of those years. I think I just was in my room with the computer. Listening to Billy Joel. Communing, possibly listening to the radio, listening to Billy Joel. That was the one album I had on vinyl at that time. And then I got it on cassette tape and that was really helpful. Cause then I could play it. I didn't have to go down to my parents' wifi or hi-fi, sorry. And at age 15, I remember kind of walking out and like, okay, I'm ready to talk to people again. Like I've learned what I need to learn here. And so, yeah, so that was, that was my home computer. And so I went to college and I was like, oh, I'm totally going to study computer science. And I opted the college I chose specifically had a computer science major. The one that I really wanted, the college I really wanted to go to didn't. So bye-bye to them. Which college did you go to? So I went to Yale. Princeton would have been way more convenient and it was just beautiful campus and it was close enough to home. And I was really excited about Princeton. And I visited, I said, so computer science major is like, well, we have computer engineering. I'm like, oh, I don't like that word engineering. I like computer science. I really, I want to do like, you're saying hardware and software. They're like, yeah. I'm like, I just want to do software. I couldn't care less about hardware. And you grew up in Philadelphia? I grew up outside Philly. Yeah. Yeah. So the local schools were like Penn and Drexel and Temple. Like every one of my family went to Temple at least at one point in their lives, except for me. So yeah, Philly, Philly family. Yale had a computer science department and that's when you, it's kind of interesting. You said eighties in your own networks. That's when you know, that was a hot new thing or a hot thing period. So what is that in college when you first learned about your own networks? Yeah. Yeah. When she learned like how did you- And it was in a psychology class, not in a CS class. Oh wow. Yeah. Was it psychology or cognitive science or like, do you remember like what context? It was, yeah, yeah, yeah. So, so I was a, I've always been a bit of a cognitive psychology groupie. So like I, I studied computer science, but I like, I like to hang around where the cognitive scientists are. Cause I don't know, brains, man, they're like, they're wacky. Cool. And they have a bigger picture view of things. They're a little less engineering. I would say they're more, they're more interested in the nature of cognition and intelligence and perception and how like the vision system works. They're asking always bigger questions. Now with the deep learning community, they're, I think more, there's a lot of intersections, but I do find that the, the neuroscience folks actually, and a cognitive psychology, cognitive science folks are starting to learn how to program, how to use neural artificial neural networks. And they are actually approaching problems in like totally new, interesting ways. It's fun to watch that grad students from those departments, like approach a problem of machine learning. Right. They come in with a different perspective. Yeah. They don't care about like your image net data set or whatever. They, they want like to understand the, the, the, like the basic mechanisms at the, at the neuronal level, at the functional level of intelligence. It's kind of, it's kind of cool to see them work, but yeah. Okay. So you always love, you're always a groupie of cognitive psychology. Yeah. Yeah. And so, so it was in a class by Richard Garrick. He was kind of my, my favorite psych professor in college. And I took like three different classes with him. And yeah, so they were talking specifically the class, I think was kind of a, there was a big paper that was written by Steven Pinker and Prince. I don't, I'm blanking on Prince's first name, but Prince and Pinker and Prince, they wrote kind of a, they were at that time kind of like, I'm blanking on the names of the current people. The cognitive scientists who are complaining a lot about deep networks. Oh, Gary, Gary Marcus, sorry, Marcus. Yeah. And who else? I mean, there's a few, but Gary, Gary's the most feisty. Sure. Gary's very feisty. And with this, with his co-author, they, they, you know, they're kind of doing these kinds of take-downs where they say, okay, well, yeah, it does all these amazing things, but here's a shortcoming, here's a shortcoming, here's a shortcoming. And so the Pinker Prince paper is kind of like the, that generation's version of Marcus and Davis, right? Where they're, they're trained as cognitive scientists, but they're looking skeptically at the results in the, in the artificial intelligence neural net kind of world and saying, yeah, it can do this and this and this, but like, it can't do that and it can't do that and it can't do that. Maybe in principle or maybe just in practice at this point. But, but the fact of the matter is you're, you've narrowed your focus too far to be impressed. You know, you're impressed with the things within that circle, but you need to broaden that circle a little bit. You need to look at a wider set of problems. And so, so we had, so I was in this seminar in college that was basically a close reading of the Pinker Prince paper, which was like really thick. There was a lot going on in there. And, and it, and it talked about the reinforcement learning idea a little bit. I'm like, oh, that sounds really cool because behavior is what is really interesting to me about psychology anyway. So making programs that, I mean, programs are things that behave, people are things that behave. Like I want to make learning that learns to behave. In which way was reinforcement learning presented? Is this talking about human and animal behavior or are we talking about actual mathematical constructs? Ah, that's a great, so that's a good question. Right. So this is, I think it wasn't actually talked about as behavior in the paper that I was reading. I think that it just talked about learning. And to me, learning is about learning to behave, but really neural nets at that point were about learning, like supervised learning. So learning to produce outputs from inputs. So I kind of tried to invent reinforcement learning. I, when I graduated, I joined a research group at Bellcore, which had spun out of Bell Labs recently at that time, because of the divestiture of the, of long distance and local phone service in the 1980s, 1984. And I was in a group with Dave Ackley, who was the first author of the Boltzmann machine paper. So the very first neural net paper that could handle XOR, right? So XOR sort of killed neural nets. The very first, the zero width order. The first winter. Yeah. The perceptron's paper and Hinton, along with his student, Dave Ackley, and I think there was other authors as well, showed that, no, no, no, with Boltzmann machines, we can actually learn nonlinear concepts. And so everything's back on the table again. And that kind of started that second wave of neural networks. So Dave Ackley was, he became my mentor at, at Bellcore. And we talked a lot about learning and life and computation and how all these things fit together. Now Dave and I have a podcast together. So, so I get to kind of enjoy that sort of his, his perspective once again, even, even all these years later. And so I said, so I said, I was really interested in learning, but in the concept of behavior. And he's like, oh, well, that's reinforcement learning here. And he gave me a Rich Sutton's 1984 TD paper. So I read that paper. I honestly didn't get all of it, but I got the idea. I got that they were using that he was using ideas that I was familiar with in the context of neural nets and, and like sort of back prop. But with this idea of making predictions over time, I'm like, this is so interesting, but I don't really get all the details. I said to Dave and Dave said, oh, well, why don't we have him come and give a talk? And I was like, wait, what, you can do that? Like, these are real people. I thought they were just words. I thought it was just like ideas that somehow magically seeped into paper. He's like, no, I, I, I know rich, like, we'll just have him come down and he'll give a talk. And so I was, you know, my mind was blown. And so Rich came and he gave a talk at bell core. And he talked about what he was super excited, which was they had just figured out at the time, Q learning. So Watkins had visited the rich Sutton's lab at UMass or Andy Bartow's lab that Rich was a part of. And, um, he was really excited about this because it resolved a whole bunch of problems that he didn't know how to resolve in the, in the earlier paper. And so, uh, for people who don't know TD temporal difference, it's, these are all just algorithms for reinforcement learning. Right. And TD, the temporal difference in particular is about making predictions over time. And you can try to use it for making decisions, right? Cause if you can predict how good a future action or an action outcomes will be in the future, you can choose one that has better and, or, but the theory didn't really support changing your behavior. Like the predictions had to be of a consistent process if you really wanted it to work. And one of the things that was really cool about Q learning, another algorithm for reinforcement learning is it was off policy, which meant that you could actually be learning about the environment and what the value of different actions would be while actually figuring out how to behave optimally. So that was a revelation. Yeah. And the proof of that is kind of interesting. I mean, that's really surprising to me when I first read that and then enrich it, rich Sutton's book on the matter. It's, it's kind of a beautiful that a single equation can capture all equation, one line of code and like, you can learn anything. Yeah. Like equation and code. You're right. Like you can, the code that you can arguably, at least if you like squint your eyes can say, this is all of intelligence is that you can implement that in a single, well, I think I started with Lisp, which is shout out to Lisp, uh, like a single line of code, key piece of code, maybe a couple that you could do that as kind of magical. It's, uh, feels too good to be true. Well, and it sort of is. Yeah. It seems to require an awful lot of extra stuff supporting it, but, but nonetheless, the ideas, the idea is really good. And as far as we know, it is, it is a very reasonable way of trying to create adaptive behavior, behavior that gets better at something over time. Did you find the idea of optimal, uh, at all compelling that you can prove that it's optimal? So like one part of computer science that it makes people feel warm and fuzzy inside is when you can prove something like that assorting algorithm worst case runs and, and log in and it makes everybody feel so good. Even though in reality it doesn't really matter what the worst case is, what matters is like, does this thing actually work in practice on this particular actual set of data that I, that I enjoy? Did you, so here's that, here's a place where I have maybe a strong opinion, which is like, you're right. Of course, but no, no. Like, so, so the, what makes worst case so great, right? If you have a worst case analysis, so great is that you get modularity. You can take that thing and plug it into another thing and still have some understanding of what's going to happen when you click them together, right? If it just works well in practice, in other words, with respect to some distribution that you care about, when you go plug it into another thing, that distribution can shift and can change and your thing may not work well anymore. And you want it to, and you wish it does, and you hope that it will, but it might not. And then, ah. So you're, so you're saying you don't like machine learning. Yeah, but we have some positive theoretical results for these things. You know, you can come back at me with, yeah, but they're really weak and yeah, they're really weak. And, and you can even say that, you know, sorting algorithms, like if you do the optimal sorting algorithm, it's not really the one that you want. And that might be true as well, but. But it is, the modularity is a really powerful statement. I really like that. As an engineer, you can then assemble different things. You can count on them to be, I mean, it's interesting. It's, it's a balance like with everything else in life. You don't want to get too obsessed. I mean, this is what computer scientists do, which they tend to like get obsessed. They over optimize things that where they start by optimizing them, they over optimize. So it's, it's easy to like get really granular about this thing, but like the step from an N squared to an N log N sorting algorithm is a big leap for most real world systems. No matter what the actual behavior of the system is, that's a big leap. And the same can probably be said for other kinds of first leaps that you would take on a particular problem. Like it's the picking the low hanging fruit or whatever the equivalent of doing the, not the dumbest thing, but the next to the dumbest thing is picking the most delicious reachable fruit. Yeah. Most delicious reachable fruit. I don't know why that's not a saying. And yeah. Okay. So, so you, then this is the eighties and this kind of idea starts to percolate of, yeah. When I got to meet, I got to meet Rich Sutton. So everything was sort of downhill from there. And that was, that was really the pinnacle of everything. But then I, you know, then I felt like I was kind of on the inside. So then as interesting results were happening, I could like check in with, with rich or with Jerry Tesaro, who had a huge impact on kind of early thinking in, in temporal difference learning and reinforcement learning and showed that you could do, you could solve problems that we didn't know how to solve any other way. And so that was really cool. So it was good things were happening. I would hear about it from either the people who were doing it or the people who were talking to the people who were doing it. And so I was able to track things pretty well through, through the nineties. So what, wasn't most of the excitement on reinforcement learning in the nineties era with, with what is it? TD gamma, like what's the role of these kind of little like fun game playing things and breakthroughs about, you know, exciting the community was that like, what were your, cause you've also built a cross or part of building a crossword puzzle, a solver program, a solving program called prover. So, so you were interested in this as a problem, like informing, using games to understand how to build intelligent systems. So like, what did you think about TD gamma? Like, what did you think about that whole thing in the nineties? Yeah. I mean, I found the TD gammon result really just remarkable. So I had known about some of Jerry's stuff before he did TD gammon. He did a system, just more vanilla, well, not entirely vanilla, but a more classical back-proppy kind of network for playing backgammon where he was training it on expert moves. So it was kind of supervised, but the way that it worked was not to mimic the actions, but to learn internally and evaluation function. So to learn, well, if the expert chose this over this, that must mean that the expert values this more than this. And so let me adjust my weights to make it so that the network evaluates this as being better than this. So it could learn from human preferences, it could learn its own preferences. And then when he took the step from that to actually doing it as a full-on reinforcement learning problem, where you didn't need a trainer, you could just let it play, that was remarkable. And so I think as humans often do, as we've done in the recent past as well, people extrapolate. It's like, oh, well, if you can do that, which is obviously very hard, then obviously you could do all these other problems that we want to solve that we know are also really hard. And it turned out very few of them ended up being practical, partly because I think neural nets, certainly at the time, were struggling to be consistent and reliable. And so training them in a reinforcement learning setting was a bit of a mess. I had, I don't know, generation after generation of master students who wanted to do value function approximation, basically reinforcement learning with neural nets. And over and over and over again, we were failing. We couldn't get the good results that Jerry Tosaro got. I now believe that Jerry is a neural net whisperer. He has a particular ability to get neural networks to do things that other people would find impossible. And it's not the technology, it's the technology and Jerry together. Yeah. Which I think speaks to the role of the human expert in the process of machine learning. Right. It's so easy. We're so drawn to the idea that it's the technology that is where the power is coming from, that I think we lose sight of the fact that sometimes you need a really good... And just like, I mean, no one would think, hey, here's this great piece of software. Here's like, I don't know, GNU Emacs or whatever. And doesn't that prove that computers are super powerful and basically going to take over the world? It's like, no, Stahman is a hell of a hacker. Right? So he was able to make the code, do these amazing things. He couldn't have done it without the computer, but the computer couldn't have done it without him. And so I think people discount the role of people like Jerry who have just a particular set of skills. On that topic, by the way, as a small side note, I tweeted Emacs is greater than Vim yesterday and deleted the tweet 10 minutes later when I realized you were on fire. It started a war. Yeah. I was like, oh, I was just kidding. I was just being provocative. And I'm going to walk back and forth. So people still feel passionately about that particular piece of... Yeah, I don't get that because Emacs is clearly so much better. I don't understand. But why do I say that? Because I spent a block of time in the 80s making my fingers know the Emacs keys. And now that's part of the thought process for me. I need to express... And if you take my Emacs key bindings away, I become... I can't express myself. I'm the same way with... I don't know if you know what it is, but a Kinesis keyboard, which is this butt-shaped keyboard. Yes, I've seen them. They're very, I don't know, sexy, elegant. They're just beautiful. Yeah, they're gorgeous, way too expensive. But the problem with them, similar with Emacs, is once you learn to use it... It's harder to use other things. It's hard to use other things. There's this absurd thing where I have small, elegant, lightweight, beautiful little laptops, and I'm sitting there in a coffee shop with a giant Kinesis keyboard and a sexy little laptop. It's absurd. But I used to feel bad about it, but at the same time, you just kind of have to... Sometimes it's back to the Billy Joel thing. You just have to throw that Billy Joel record and throw it back to the Kinesis keyboard. You just have to throw that Billy Joel record and throw Taylor Swift and Justin Bieber to the wind. See, but I like them now because again, I have no musical taste. Now that I've heard Justin Bieber enough, I'm like, I really like his songs. And Taylor Swift, not only do I like her songs, but my daughter's convinced that she's a genius. And so now I basically am signed onto that. That's true. So yeah, that speaks to the back to the robustness of the human brain. That speaks to the power of plasticity. You can just like a mouse teach yourself to, or probably a dog teach yourself to enjoy Taylor Swift. I'll try it out. I don't know. I tried. You know what? It has to do with just acclimation, right? Just like you said, a couple of weeks. That's an interesting experiment. I'll actually try that. I'll listen to- If that wasn't the intent of the experiment, just like social media, it wasn't intended as an experiment to see what we can take as a society, but it turned out that way. I don't think I'll be the same person on the other side of the week listening to Taylor Swift, but let's try. You know, it's more compartmentalized. Don't be so worried. Like I get that you can be worried, but don't be so worried because we compartmentalize really well. And so it won't bleed into other parts of your life. You won't start, I don't know, wearing red lipstick or whatever. It's fine. It's fine. Change fashion and everything. It's fine. But you know what? The thing you have to watch out for is you'll walk into a coffee shop once we can do that again. And recognize the song? And you'll be, no, you won't know that you're singing along until everybody in the coffee shop is looking at you. And then you're like, that wasn't me. Yeah. That's the, you know, people are afraid of AGI. I'm afraid of the Taylor Swift takeover. Yeah. And I mean, people should know that TD Gammon was, I get, would you call it, do you like the terminology of self-play by any chance? So like systems that learn by playing themselves, just, I don't know if it's the best word, but- So what's the problem with that term? I don't know. Silly, it's like the big bang. Like it's like talking to serious physicists. Do you like the term big bang? When it was early, I feel like it's the early days of self-play. I don't know maybe it was used previously, but I think it's been used by only a small group of people. And so like, I think we're still deciding is this ridiculously silly name a good name for the cons, potentially one of the most important concepts in artificial intelligence. Okay. It depends how broadly you apply the term. So I used the term in my 1996 PhD dissertation. Wow. The actual terms of- Yeah. Because, because Tassaro's paper was something like training up an expert backgammon player through self-play. So I think it was in the title of his paper. If not in the title, it was definitely a term that he used. There's another term that we got from that work is roll out. So I don't know if you, do you ever hear the term roll out? That's a backgammon term that has now applied generally in computers. Well, at least in AI because of TD gammon. Yeah. That's fascinating. So how is self-play being used now? And like, why is it, does it, does it feel like a more general powerful content? It's sort of the idea of, well, the machine just going to teach itself to be smart. Yeah. So that's, that's where maybe you can correct me, but that's where, you know, the continuation of the spirit and actually like literally the exact algorithms of TD gammon are applied by DeepMind and OpenAI to learn games that are a little bit more complex. That when I was learning artificial intelligence, Go was presented to me with artificial intelligence, the modern approach. I don't know if they explicitly pointed to go in those books as like unsolvable kind of thing, like implying that these approaches hit their limit in this, with these particular kind of games. So something, I don't remember if the book said it or not, but something in my head, or if it was the professors instilled in me the idea, like this is the limits of artificial intelligence of the field. Like it instilled in me the idea that if we can create a system that can solve the game of Go, we've achieved AGI. That was kind of, I didn't explicitly like say this, but that was the feeling. And so from, I was one of the people that it seemed magical when a learning system was able to beat a human world champion at the game of Go. And even more so, from that, that was AlphaGo, even more so with AlphaGo Zero than kind of renamed and advanced into AlphaZero, beating a world champion or world-class player without any supervised learning on expert games, doing only through by playing itself. So that is, I don't know what to make of it. I think it would be interesting to hear what your opinions are on just how exciting, surprising, profound, interesting, or boring the breakthrough performance of AlphaZero was. Okay. So AlphaGo knocked my socks off. That was so remarkable. Which aspect of it? That they got it to work, that they actually were able to leverage a whole bunch of different ideas, integrate them into one giant system. Just the software engineering aspect of it is mind-blowing. I've never been a part of a program as complicated as the program that they built for that. And just like Jerry Tesaro is a neural net whisperer, David Silver is a kind of neural net whisperer too. He was able to coax these networks and these new way out there architectures to solve these problems that, as you said, when we were learning from AI, no one had an idea how to make it work. It was remarkable that these techniques that were so good at playing chess, and that could beat the world champion in chess, couldn't beat your typical Go playing teenager in Go. So the fact that in a very short number of years, we kind of ramped up to trouncing people in Go just blew me away. So you're kind of focusing on the engineering aspect, which is also very surprising. I mean, there's something different about large, well-funded companies. I mean, there's a compute aspect to it too. Of course, that's similar to Deep Blue with IBM. There's something important to be learned and remembered about a large company taking the ideas that are already out there and investing a few million dollars into it or more. And so you're kind of saying the engineering is kind of fascinating both on the, without for Go, is probably just gathering all the data, right, of the expert games, like organizing everything, actually doing distributed supervised learning. And to me, see, the engineering I kind of took for granted, to me, philosophically being able to persist in the same way that I was being able to persist in the face of long odds. Because it feels like, for me, I would be one of the skeptical people in the room thinking that you can learn your way to beat Go. It sounded like, especially with David Silver, it sounded like David was not confident at all. It's funny how confidence works. It's like, you're not cocky about it, but- Right. Because if you're cocky about it, you kind of stop and stall and don't get anywhere. Yeah. But there's a hope that's unbreakable. Maybe that's better than confidence. It's a kind of wishful hope and a little dream, and you almost don't want to do anything else. You kind of keep doing it. That seems to be the story. And- But with enough skepticism that you're looking for where the problems are and fighting through them. Because you know there's got to be a way out of this thing. Yeah. And for him, it was probably, there's a bunch of little factors that come into play. It's funny how these stories just all come together. Everything he did in his life came into play, which is a love for video games and also a connection to... So the 90s had to happen with TD Gammon and so on. Yeah. And in some ways it's surprising, maybe you can provide some intuition to it, that not much more than TD Gammon was done for quite a long time on the reinforcement learning front. Yeah. Is that weird to you? I mean, like I said, the students who I worked with, we tried to get, basically apply that architecture to other problems. And we consistently failed. There were a couple of really nice demonstrations that ended up being in the literature. There was a paper about controlling elevators, right? Where it's like, okay, can we modify the heuristic that elevators use for deciding, like a bank of elevators for deciding which floors we should be stopping on to maximize throughput essentially? And you can set that up as a reinforcement learning problem. And you can have a neural net represent the value function so that it's taking where are all the elevators, where are the button pushes, this high dimensional, well, at the time, high dimensional input, a couple dozen dimensions, and turn that into a prediction as to, oh, is it going to be better if I stop at this floor or not? And ultimately it appeared as though for the standard simulation distribution for people trying to leave the building at the end of the day, that the neural net learned a better strategy than the standard one that's implemented in elevator controllers. So that was nice. There was some work that Satindra Singh et al. did on handoffs with cell phones, deciding when should you hand off from this cell tower to this cell tower. Oh, okay. Communication networks, yeah. Yeah. And so a couple things seemed like they were really promising. None of them made it into production that I'm aware of. And neural nets as a whole started to kind of implode around then. And so there just wasn't a lot of air in the room for people to try to figure out, okay, how do we get this to work in the RL setting? And then they found their way back in 10 plus years. So you said AlphaGo was impressive, like it's a big spectacle. Is there- Right, so then AlphaZero. So I think I may have a slightly different opinion on this than some people. So I talked to Satindra Singh in particular about this. So Satindra was a like Rich Sutton, a student of Antibarto. So they came out of the same lab, very influential machine learning, reinforcement learning researcher, now at DeepMind as is Rich, though different sites, the two of them. He's in Alberta. Rich is in Alberta and Satindra would be in England, but I think he's in England from Michigan at the moment. But he was, yes, he was much more impressed with AlphaGo Zero, which is, didn't get a kind of a bootstrap in the beginning with human-trained games. It just was purely self-play. Though the first one, AlphaGo, was also a tremendous amount of self-play. They started off, they kick-started the action network that was making decisions, but then they trained it for a really long time using more traditional temporal difference methods. So as a result, it didn't seem that different to me. It seems like, yeah, why wouldn't that work? Once it works, it works. But he found that removal of that extra information to be breathtaking. That's a game changer. To me, the first thing was more of a game changer. But the open question, I guess that's the assumption, is the expert games might contain within them a humongous amount of information. But we know that it went beyond that. We know that it somehow got away from the game, that it somehow got away from that information because it was learning strategies. I don't think AlphaGo is just better at implementing human strategies. I think it actually developed its own strategies that were more effective. And so from that perspective, okay, well, so it made at least one quantum leap in terms of strategic knowledge. Okay, so now maybe it makes three. Okay, but that first one is the doozy, right? Getting it to work reliably and for the networks to hold onto the value well enough. That was a big step. Well, maybe you could speak to this on the reinforcement learning front. So starting from scratch and learning to do something, like the first random behavior to crappy behavior to somewhat okay behavior. It's not obvious to me that that's not impossible to take those steps. If you just think about the intuition, how the heck does random behavior become somewhat basic, intelligent behavior? Not human level, not superhuman level, but just basic. But you're saying to you, the intuition is like, if you can go from human to superhuman level intelligence on this particular task of game playing, then you're good at taking leaps. So you can take many of them. That the system, I believe that the system can take that kind of leap. Yeah, and also I think that beginner knowledge in go, you can start to get a feel really quickly for the idea that being in certain parts of the board seems to be more associated with winning. Right? Because it's not stumbling upon the concept of winning. It's told that it wins or that it loses. Well, it's self play. So it both wins and loses. It's told which side won. And the information is kind of there to start percolating around to make a difference as to, well, these things have a better chance of helping you win and these things have a worse chance of helping you win. And so it can get to basic play, I think pretty quickly. Then once it has basic play, well, now it's kind of forced to do some search to actually experiment with, okay, well, what gets me that next increment of improvement? How far do you think, okay, this is where you kind of bring up the Elon Musk and the Sam Harris is right. How far is your intuition about these kinds of self-playing mechanisms being able to take us? Because it feels one of the ominous, but stated calmly things that when I talked to David Silver, he said, is that they have not yet discovered a ceiling for AlphaZero, for example, on the game of Go or chess. Like it keeps, no matter how much they compute, they throw at it, it keeps improving. So it's possible, it's very possible that if you throw some like 10X compute that it will improve by 5X or something like that. And when stated calmly, it's so like, oh yeah, I guess so. But like, and then you think like, well, can we potentially have like continuations of Moore's law in totally different ways, like broadly defined Moore's law, not the continental improvement, exponential improvement, like, are we going to have an AlphaZero that swallows the world? But notice it's not getting better at other things. It's getting better at the but notice it's not getting better at other things. It's getting better at Go. And I think it's a, that's a big leap to say, okay, well, therefore it's better at other things. Well, I mean, the question is how much of the game of life can be turned into. Right. So that's, that I think is a really good question. And I think that we don't, I don't think we as a, I don't know, community really know that the answer to this, but so, okay. So, so I went, I went to a talk by some experts on computer chess. So in particular, computer chess is really interesting because, you know, for, of course, for a thousand years, humans were the best chess playing things on the planet. And then computers like edged ahead of the best person and they've been ahead ever since. It's not like people have, have overtaken computers, but, but computers and people together have overtaken computers. Right. So at least last time I checked, I don't know what the very latest is, but last time I checked that there were teams of people who could work with computer programs to defeat the best computer programs. In the game of Go? In the game of chess. In the game of chess. Right. And so using the information about how these things called ELO scores, this sort of notion of how strong a player are you, there's a, there's kind of a range of possible scores and the, you increment in score. Basically, if you can beat another player of that lower score, 62% of the time or something like that, like there's some threshold of, if you can somewhat consistently beat someone, then you are of a higher score than that person. And there's a question as to how many times can you do that in chess? Right. And so we know that there's a range of human ability levels that cap out with the best playing humans. And the computers went a step beyond that and computers and people together have not gone, I think a full step beyond that. It feels the estimates that they have is that it's starting to asymptote that we've reached kind of the maximum, the best possible chess playing. And so that means that there's kind of a finite strategic depth, right? At some point, you just can't get any better at this game. Yeah. I mean, I don't, so I like to check that. I think it's interesting because if you have somebody like Magnus Carlsen, who's using these chess programs to train his mind, like to learn about chess, to become a better chess player. Yeah. And so like, that's a very interesting thing because we're not static creatures. We're learning together. I mean, just like we're talking about social networks, those algorithms are teaching us just like we're teaching those algorithms. So that's a fascinating thing. But I think the best chess playing programs are now better than the pairs. Like they have competition between pairs, but it's still, even if they weren't, it's an interesting question. Where's the ceiling? So the David, the ominous David Silver kind of statement is like, we have not found the ceiling. Right. But so the question is, okay, so I don't know his analysis on that. My, from talking to go experts, the depth, the strategic depth of go seems to be substantially greater than that of chess, that there's more kind of steps of improvement that you can make getting better and better and better and better. But there's no reason to think that it's infinite. And so it could be that it's, that what David is seeing is a kind of asymptoting that you can keep getting better, but with diminishing returns. And at some point you hit optimal play. Like in theory, all these finite games, they're finite. They have an optimal strategy. There's a strategy that is the mini max optimal strategy. And so at that point, you can't get any better. You can't beat that, that strategy. Now that strategy may be from an information processing perspective, intractable, right? You need, all the situations are sufficiently different that you can't compress it at all. It's this giant mess of hard coded rules and we can never achieve that. But, but that still puts a cap on how many levels of improvement that we can actually make. But the, the, the thing about self play is if you, if you put it, although I don't like doing that in the broader category of self supervised learning is that it doesn't require too much or any human human labeling. Yeah. Human label or just human effort, the human involvement past a certain point. And the same thing you could argue is true for the recent breakthroughs in natural English processing with language models. Oh, this is how you get to GPT three. Yeah. See how that did the, uh, that was a good, good transition. Yeah. Yeah. I practiced that for days leading up to this, you know, uh, but like that's one of the questions is can we find ways to formulate problems in this world that are important to us humans, like more important than the game of chess that, uh, to which self supervised kinds of approaches could be applied, whether it's self play, for example, for like, maybe you could think of like autonomous vehicles in, in simulation, that kind of stuff, or just robotics applications and simulation or, uh, in the self supervised learning where on, uh, unannotated data or data that's generated by humans naturally without extra costs, like the Wikipedia or like all of the internet can be used to, to learn something about, to create intelligence systems that do something, uh, really powerful that pass the touring test or that do some kind of superhuman level performance. So what's your intuition? They trying to stitch all of it together about our discussion of AGI, the limits of self play and your thoughts about maybe the limits of neural networks in the context of language models. Is there some intuition in there that might be useful to think about? Yeah, yeah. Yeah. So, so first of all, the, the whole transformer network family of things, um, is really cool. It's really, really cool. I mean, for, you know, if you've ever, back in the day you played with, I don't know, Markov models for generating texts and you've seen the kind of texts that they spit out and you compare it to what's happening now. It's, it's amazing. It's so amazing. Now it doesn't take very long interacting with one of these systems before you find the holes, right? It's so, so, so amazing. It's, it's not smart in any kind of general way. It's really good at a bunch of things. And it does seem to understand a lot of the statistics of language extremely well. And that turns out to be very powerful. You can answer many questions with that, but it doesn't make it a good conversationalist, right? And it doesn't make it a good storyteller. It just makes it good at imitating of things that is seen in the past. The exact same thing could be said by people who are voting for Donald Trump about Joe Biden supporters and people voting for Joe Biden about Donald Trump supporters is, you know, that they're not intelligent. They're just following the, yeah, they're following things they've seen in the past. And so it's very, it doesn't take long to find the flaws in their, in their like natural language generation abilities. Yes. So we're being very, that's interesting. Critical of AI systems. Right. So, so I've had a similar thought, which was that the stories that GPT-3 spits out are amazing and very human-like. And it doesn't mean that computers are smarter than we realize necessarily. It partly means that people are dumber than we realize, or that much of what we do day to day is not that deep. Like we're just, we're just kind of going with the flow. We're saying whatever feels like the natural thing to say next. Not a lot of it is, is, is creative or meaningful or intentional, but enough is that we actually get, we get by, right? We do come up with new ideas sometimes and we do manage to talk each other into things sometimes. And we do sometimes vote for reasonable people sometimes, but, but it's really hard to see in the statistics because so much of what we're saying is kind of rote. And so our metrics that we use to measure how these systems are doing don't reveal that because it's, it's, it's in the interstices that, that is very hard to detect. But is your, do you have any intuition that with these language models, if they grow in size, it's already surprising that when you go from GPT-2 to GPT-3, that there is a noticeable improvement. So the question now goes back to the ominous David Silver and the ceiling. Right. So maybe there's just no ceiling. We just need more compute now. I mean, okay. So now I'm speculating yes, as opposed to before when I was completely on firm ground. All right. I don't believe that you can get something that really can do language and use language as a thing that doesn't interact with people. Like, I think that it's not enough to just take everything that we've said written down and just say, that's enough. You can just learn from that and you can be intelligent. I think you really need to be pushed back at, I think that conversations, even people who are pretty smart, maybe the smartest thing that we know, not maybe not the smartest thing we can imagine, but we get so much benefit out of talking to each other and interacting. That's presumably why you have conversations live with guests is that, that there's something in that interaction that would not be exposed by, oh, I'll just write you a story and then you can read it later. And I think, I think because these systems are just learning from our stories, they're not learning from being pushed back at by us, that they're fundamentally limited into what they could actually become on this route. They have to, they have to get shut down. Like we have to have an argument that they have to have an argument with us and lose a couple of times before they start to realize, oh, okay, wait, there's some nuance here that actually matters. Yeah. That's actually subtle sounding, but quite profound that the interaction with humans is essential. And the limitation within that is profound as well, because the time scale, like the bandwidth at which you can really interact with humans is very low. So it's costly. So you can't, one of the underlying things about self plays, it has to do, you know, a very large number of interactions. And so you can't really deploy reinforcement learning systems into the real world to interact. Like you couldn't deploy a language model into the real world to interact with humans, because it was just not getting enough data relative to the cost it takes to interact. Like the time of humans is, is, is expensive, which is really interesting. That's the good, that takes us back to reinforcement learning and trying to figure out if there's ways to make algorithms that are more efficient at learning, keep the spirit and reinforcement learning and become more efficient. In some sense, that seems to be the goal. I'd love to hear what your thoughts are. I don't know if you got the chance to see a blog post called Bitter Lesson. Oh yes. By Rich Sutton that makes an argument. Hopefully I can summarize it. Perhaps, perhaps you can. Yeah. Okay. So I mean, I could try and you can correct me, which is, he makes an argument that it seems if we look at the long arc of the history of the artificial intelligence field, it calls, you know, 70 years that the algorithms from which we've seen the biggest improvements in practice are the very simple, like dumb algorithms that are able to leverage computation. And you just wait for the computation to improve. Like all of the academics and so on have fun by finding little tricks and, and congratulate themselves on those tricks. And sometimes those tricks can be like big, they feel in the moment, like big spikes and breakthroughs, but in reality over the decades, it's still the same dumb algorithm that just waits for the compute to get faster and faster. Mm. Do you find that to be an interesting argument against the entirety of the field of machine learning as an academic discipline? That we're really just a subfield of computer architecture. Yeah. We're just kind of waiting around for them to do their next thing. Who really don't want to do hardware work. So like- That's right. I really don't want to think about that. We're procrastinating. Yes. That's right. Just waiting for them to do their job so that we can pretend to have done ours. So yeah, I mean, the argument reminds me a lot of, I think it was a Fred Jelinek quote, early computational linguist who said, you know, we're building these computational linguistic systems and every time we fire a linguist, performance goes up by 10%, something like that. And so the idea of us building the knowledge in, in that, in that case was much less, he was finding it to be much less successful than get rid of the people who know about language as a, you know, from a kind of scholastic academic kind of perspective and replace them with more compute. And so I think this is kind of a modern version of that story, which is, okay, we want to do better on machine vision. You could build in all these, you know, motivated part-based models that, you know, that just feel like obviously the right thing that you have to have, or we can throw a lot of data at it and guess what we're doing better with it with a lot of data. So I hadn't thought about it until this moment in this way, but what I believe, well, I've thought about what I believe, what I believe is that, you know, compositionality and what's the right way to say it, the complexity grows rapidly as you consider more and more possibilities, like explosively. And so far Moore's law has also been growing explosively, exponentially. And so, so it really does seem like, well, we don't have to think really hard about the algorithm design or the way that we build the systems, because the best benefit we could get is exponential and the best benefit that we can get from waiting is exponential. So we can just wait. It's got, that's got to end, right? And there's hints now that Moore's law is starting to feel some friction, starting to, the world is pushing back a little bit. One thing I, I don't know, do lots of people know this? I didn't know this. I was, I was trying to write an essay and yeah, Moore's law has been amazing and it's been, it's enabled all sorts of things, but there's a, there's also a kind of counter Moore's law, which is that the development cost for each successive generation of chips also is doubling. So it's costing twice as much money. So the amount of development money per cycle or whatever is actually sort of constant. And at some point we run out of money. So, or we have to come up with an entirely different way of, of doing the development process. So like, I guess I always, always a bit skeptical of the look, it's an exponential curve, therefore it has no end. Soon the number of people going to NeurIPS will be greater than the population of the earth. That means we're going to discover life on other planets. No, it doesn't. It means that we're in a, in a sigmoid curve on the front half, which looks a lot like an exponential. The second half is going to look a lot like diminishing returns. Yeah. The, I mean, but the interesting thing about Moore's law, if you actually like look at the technologies involved, it's hundreds, if not thousands of S curves stacked on top of each other. It's not actually an exponential curve. It's constant breakthroughs. And then what becomes useful to think about, which is exactly what you're saying, the cost of development, like the size of teams, the amount of resources that are invested in continuing to find new S curves, new breakthroughs. And yeah, it's a, it's an interesting idea. You know, if we live in the moment, if we sit here today, it seems to be the reasonable thing to say that exponentials end. And yet in the software realm, they just keep appearing to be happening. And it's so, I mean, it's so hard to disagree with Elon Musk on this because it, like I've, you know, I used to be one of those folks. I'm still one of those folks. I studied autonomous vehicles. This is what I worked on. And, and it's, it's like, you look at what Elon Musk is saying about autonomous vehicles. Well, obviously in a couple of years or in a year or, or next month we'll have fully autonomous vehicles. Like there's no reason why we can't. Driving is pretty simple. Like it's just a learning problem and you just need to convert all the driving that we're doing into data and just having, you know, with the trains and that data and like we use only our eyes. So you can use cameras and you can train on it. And it's like, yeah, that's that what that should work. And then you put that hat on, like the philosophical hat. And, but then you put the pragmatic hat and it's like, this is what the flaws of computer vision are. Like this is what it means to trans scale. And then you, you put the human factors, the psychology hat on, which is like, it's actually driving us a lot. The cognitive science or cognitive, whatever the heck you call it is, it's really hard. It's much harder to drive than, than we realize there's much larger number of edge cases. So building up an intuition around this is, is around exponential is really difficult. And on top of that, the pandemic is making us think about exponentials, making us realize that like, we don't understand anything about it. We're not able to intuit exponentials. We're either ultra terrified some part of the population and some part is like, uh, the opposite of whatever the different carefree and we're not managing it. Blase. Wow. That's that French. Uh, it's got an accent. So it's, uh, it's fascinating to think what, what the limits of this exponential growth of technology, not just Moore's law, it's technology, how that rubs up against the bitter lesson and GPT three and self play mechanisms. Like, it's not obvious. I used to be much more skeptical about neural networks. Now I at least give a slither of possibility that will be all, that will be very much surprised and also, you know, uh, caught in a way that like, we, uh, are not prepared for like in applications of, um, social networks, for example, because it feels like really good transformer models that are able to do some kind of like very good, uh, natural language generation of the same kind of models that could be used to learn human behavior and then manipulate that human behavior to gain advertisers dollars and all those kinds of things. Uh, if he, the capitalist system and, and they arguably already are manipulating human behavior. Yeah. Yeah. So, but not for self preservation, which I think is a big, that would be a big step. Like if they were trying to manipulate us to convince us not to shut them off, I would be very freaked out, but I don't see a path to that from where we are now. They, they, they don't have any of those abilities. That's not what they're trying to do. They're trying to keep people on, on the site. But see, the thing is this, this is the thing about life on earth is they might be borrowing our consciousness and sentience. Like, so like in a sense they do because the creators of the algorithms have like, they're not, you know, if you look at our body, we're not a single organism. We're a huge number of organism with like tiny little motivations. We're built on top of each other in the same sense, the AI algorithms that are, they're not like system that includes companies and corporations, right? Cause corporations are funny organisms in and of themselves that really do seem to have self preservation built in. And I think that's at the, at the design level. I think the design to have self preservation be a focus. So you're right in that, in that broader system that we're also a part of and can have some influence on, it's, it's, it is much more complicated, much more powerful. Yeah, I agree with that. So people really love it when I ask what three books, technical, philosophical fiction had a big impact in your life. Maybe you can recommend, we went with movies. We went with Billy Joel and I forgot what you, what music you recommended, but I didn't. I just said, I have no taste in music. I just like pop music. That was actually really skillful the way you have. Thank you. Thanks. I was, I'm going to try to do the same with the books. So do you have a skillful way to avoid answering the question about three books you would recommend? I'd like to tell you a story. So my first job out of college was at Bellcore. I mentioned that before where I worked with Dave Ackley. The head of the group was a guy named Tom Landauer. And I don't know how well known he's known now, but arguably he's the, he's the inventor and the first proselytizer of word embeddings. So they, they developed a system shortly before I got to the group. Yeah. That, that called latent semantic analysis that would take words of English and embed them in a multi hundred dimensional space and then use that as a way of, you know, assessing similarity and basically doing reinforcement learning and not sorry, not reinforcement, information retrieval, you know, sort of pre-Google information retrieval. And he was trained as an anthropologist, but then would became a cognitive scientist. So I was in the cognitive science research group. It's, you know, like I said, I'm a cognitive science groupie. At the time, I thought I'd become a cognitive scientist, but then I realized in that group, no, I'm a computer scientist, but I'm a computer scientist who really loves to hang out with cognitive scientists. And he said, he studied language acquisition in particular. He said, you know, humans have about this number of words of vocabulary and most of that is learned from reading. And I said, that can't be true because I have a really big vocabulary and I don't read. He's like, you must. I'm like, I don't think I do. I mean, like stop signs. I definitely read stop signs, but like reading books is not, it's not a thing that I do. Really though. It might be just visual, maybe the red color. Do I read stop signs? Yeah. No, it's just pattern recognition at this point. I don't sound it out. Yeah. So now I do. I wonder what that, oh yeah, stop the guns. So that's fascinating. So you don't, so I don't read very, I mean, obviously I read and I've read, I've read plenty of books, but like some people like Charles, my friend Charles and others, like a lot of people in my field, a lot of academics, like reading was really a central topic to them in development. And I'm not that guy. In fact, I used to joke that when I got into college, that it was on kind of a, help out the illiterate kind of program because I got to college, like in my house, I wasn't a particularly bad or good reader, but when I got to college, I was surrounded by these people that were just voracious in their reading appetite. And they would like, have you read this? Have you read this? Have you read this? And I'd be like, no, I'm clearly not qualified to be at this school. Like there's no way I should be here. Now I've discovered books on tape, like audio books. And so I'm much better. I'm more caught up. I read a lot of books. There's a small tangent on that. It is a fascinating open question to me on the topic of driving, whether, you know, supervised learning people, machine learning people think you have to like drive to learn how to drive. To me, it's very possible that just by us humans, by first of all, walking, but also by watching other people drive, not even being inside cars as a passenger, but let's say being inside the car as a passenger, but even just like being a pedestrian and crossing the road, you learn so much about driving from that. It's very possible that you can, without ever being inside of a car, be okay at driving once you get in it or like watching a movie, for example. I don't know something like that. Have you taught anyone to drive? No. So except myself, I have two children and I learned a lot about car driving because my wife doesn't want to be the one in the car while they're learning. So that's my job. So I sit in the passenger seat and it's really scary. I have wishes to live and they're figuring things out. Now they start off very much better than I imagine like a neural network would. They get that they're seeing the world. They get that there's a road that they're trying to be on. They get that there's a relationship between the angle of the steering, but it takes a while to not be very jerky. And so that happens pretty quickly. Like the ability to stay in lane at speed, that happens relatively fast. It's not zero-shot learning, but it's pretty fast. The thing that's remarkably hard, and this is, I think, partly why self-driving cars are really hard, is the degree to which driving is a social interaction activity. And that blew me away. I was completely unaware of it until I watched my son learning to drive. And I was realizing that he was sending signals to all the cars around him. And those, in his case, he's always had social communication challenges. He was sending very mixed, confusing signals to the other cars, and that was causing the other cars to drive weirdly and erratically. And there was no question in my mind that he would have an accident because they didn't know how to read him. There's things you do with the speed that you drive, the positioning of your car, that you're constantly like in the head of the other driver, in the head of the other drivers. And seeing him not knowing how to do that and having to be taught explicitly, okay, you have to be thinking about what the other driver is thinking, was a revelation to me. I was stunned. Yeah, it's quite brilliant. So creating theories of mind of the other- Theories of mind of the other cars. Yeah. Yeah. Which I just hadn't heard discussed in the self-driving car talks that I've been to. Since then, there's some people who do consider those kinds of issues, but it's way more subtle than I think- There's a little bit of work involved with that when you realize, when you especially focus not on other cars, but on pedestrians, for example, it's literally staring you in the face. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So then when you're just like, how do I interact with pedestrians? Pedestrians, you're practically talking to an octopus at that point. They've got all these weird degrees of freedom. You don't know what they're going to do. They can turn around any second. But the point is we humans know what they're going to do. We have a good theory of mind. We have a good mental model of what they're doing. And we have a good model of the model that have a view and the model of the model of the model. We're able to reason about this kind of the social game of it. The hope is that it's quite simple actually, that it could be learned. That's what I just talked to the Waymo. I don't know if you know that company. It's Google South Africa. I talked to their CTO about this podcast. I rode in their car and it's quite aggressive and it's quite fast and it's good and it feels great. It also, just like Tesla, Waymo made me change my mind about maybe driving is easier than I thought. Maybe I'm just being speciesist, human centered. Maybe... It's a speciesist argument. Yes. I don't know. But it's fascinating to think about the same as with reading, which I think you just said. You avoided the question, though I still hope you answered it somewhat. You avoided it brilliantly. There's blind spots that artificial intelligence researchers have about what it actually takes to learn to solve a problem. That's fascinating. Have you had Anka Dragan on? Yeah. She's one of my favorites. So much energy. She's amazing. Fantastic. In particular, she thinks a lot about this kind of, I know that you know that I know kind of planning. The last time I spoke with her, she was very articulate about the ways in which self-driving cars are not solved. What's still really, really hard. Even her intuition is limited. We're all new to this. In some sense, the Elon Musk approach of being ultra confident and just like plowing... Put it out there. Putting it out there. Some people say it's reckless and dangerous and so on. But partly it seems to be one of the only ways to make progress in artificial intelligence. These are difficult things. Democracy is messy. Implementation of artificial intelligence systems in the real world is messy. So many years ago, before self-driving cars were an actual thing you could have a discussion about, somebody asked me, what if we could use that robotic technology and use it to drive cars around? Aren't people going to be killed and then it's now, blah, blah, blah. I'm like, that's not what's going to happen. I said with confidence, incorrectly, obviously. What I think is going to happen is we're going to have a lot more, a very gradual kind of rollout where people have these cars in closed communities, right? Where it's somewhat realistic, but it's still in a box, right? So that we can really get a sense of what are the weird things that can happen? How do we have to change the way we behave around these vehicles? It obviously requires a kind of coevolution that you can't just plop them in and see what happens. But of course, we're basically popping them in and see what happens. So I was wrong, but I do think that would have been a better plan. Yeah. But your intuition is funny, just zooming out and looking at the forces of capitalism. And it seems that capitalism rewards risk takers and rewards and punishes risk takers. Try it out. The academic approach to let's try a small thing and try to understand slowly the fundamentals of the problem. And let's start with one, then do two, and then see that, and then do the three. The capitalist startup entrepreneurial dream is let's build a thousand. Right. And 500 of them fail, but whatever, the other 500 we learned from them. But if you're good enough, one thing is your intuition would say that's going to be hugely destructive to everything. But actually, the forces of capitalism, it's easy to be critical, but if you actually look at the data, at the way our world has progressed in terms of the quality of life, it seems that the competent, good people rise to the top. This is coming from me from the Soviet Union and so on. It's interesting that somebody like Elon Musk is the way you push progress and artificial intelligence. It's forcing Waymo to step their stuff up and Waymo is forcing Elon Musk to step up. It's fascinating because I have this tension in my heart and just being upset by the lack of progress in autonomous vehicles within academia. So there's a huge progress in the early days of the DARPA challenges. And then it just kind of stopped like at MIT, but it's true everywhere else with an exception of a few sponsors here and there is like, it's not seen as a sexy problem. Like the moment artificial intelligence starts approaching the problems of the real world, like academics kind of like, all right. They get really hard in a different way. In a different way. That's right. I think, yeah, right. Some of us are not excited about that other way. But I still think there's fundamentals problems to be solved in those difficult things. It's not, it's still publishable, I think. We just need to, it's the same criticism you could have of all these conferences in Europe, CVPR, where application papers are often as powerful and as important as like a theory paper, even like theory just seems much more respectable and so on. I mean, in machine learning communities changing that a little bit, I mean, at least in statements, but it's still not seen as the sexiest of pursuits, which is like, how do I actually make this thing work in practice as opposed to on this toy data set? All that to say, are you still avoiding the three books question? Is there something on audiobook that you can recommend? Oh, yeah. I mean, yeah, I've read a lot of really fun stuff. In terms of books that I find myself thinking back on that I read a while ago, like the test of time to some degree, I find myself thinking of program or be programmed a lot by Douglas Roshkop, which was, it basically put out the premise that we all need to become programmers in one form or another. And it was an analogy to once upon a time we all had to become readers, we had to become literate. And there was a time before that when not everybody was literate, but once literacy was possible, the people who were literate had more of a say in society than the people who weren't. And so we made a big effort to get everybody up to speed. And now it's not 100% universal, but it's quite widespread. The assumption is generally that people can read. The analogy that he makes is that programming is a similar kind of thing, that we need to have a say in, right? So being a reader, being literate, being a reader means you can receive all this information, but you don't get to put it out there. And programming is the way that we get to put it out there. And that was the argument they made. I think he specifically has now backed away from this idea. He doesn't think it's happening quite this way. And that might be true that it didn't, society didn't sort of play forward quite that way. I still believe in the premise. I still believe that at some point we have the relationship that we have to these machines and these networks has to be one of each individual has the wherewithal to make the machines help them do the things that that person wants done. And as software people, we know how to do that. And when we have a problem, we're like, okay, I'll just, I'll hack up a Pearlscript or something and make it so. If we lived in a world where everybody could do that, that would be a better world. And computers would be have, I think less sway over us and other people's software would have less sway over us as a group. Yeah. In some sense, software engineering programming is power. It's programming is power, right? It's yeah, it's like magic. It's like magic spells and, and it's not out of reach of everyone, but at the moment it's just a sliver of the population who can, who can commune with machines in this way. So I don't know. So that book had a big, big impact on me. Currently I'm reading the alignment problem actually by Brian Christian. So I don't know if you've seen this out there yet. Is this similar to just your Russell's work with the control problem? It's in that same general neighborhood. I mean, they, they take, they have different emphases that they're, they're concentrating on. I think, I think Stuart's book did a remarkably good job. Like a, like just a celebratory good job at describing AI technology and sort of how it works. I thought that was great. It was really cool to see that in a book. Yeah. I think he has some experience writing some books. You know, that's probably a possible thing. He's maybe thought a thing or two about how to explain AI to people. Yeah. Yeah. That's a really good point. This book so far has been remarkably good at telling the story of the sort of the history, the recent history of some of the things that have happened. This I'm in the first third. He said there's book is in three thirds. The first third is essentially AI fairness and implications of AI on society that we're seeing right now. And that's been great. I mean, he's telling the stories really well. He's, he, he went out and talked to the frontline people who, whose names are associated with some of these ideas and it's been terrific. He says the second half of the book is on reinforcement learning. So maybe that'll be fun. And then the third half, third third is on the super intelligence alignment problem. And I, I suspect that that part will be less fun for me to read. Yeah. Yeah, it's, it's an interesting problem to talk about. I find it to be the most interesting, just like thinking about whether we live in a simulation or not as a, as a thought experiment to think about our own existence. So in the same way, talking about alignment problem with AGI is a good way to think similar to like the trolley problem with autonomous vehicles. It's a useless thing for engineering, but it's a, it's a nice little thought experiment for actually thinking about what are like our own human ethical systems, our moral systems to, to, to, by thinking how we engineered these things, you start to understand yourself. So sci-fi can be good at that too. So one sci-fi book to recommend is Exhalations by Ted Chiang, a bunch of short stories. This Ted Chiang is the guy who wrote the short story that became the movie Arrival. And all of his stories just from a, he was a computer scientist, actually he studied at Brown. They all have this sort of really insightful bit of science or computer science that drives them. And so it's just a romp, right? To just like, he creates these artificial worlds with these, by extrapolating on these ideas that, that we know about, but hadn't really thought through to this kind of conclusion. And so his stuff is, it's really fun to read. It's mind-warping. So I'm not sure if you're familiar. I seem to mention this every other word, is I'm from the Soviet Union and I'm Russian. I read way too much Dostoyevsky. My roots are Russian too, but a couple of generations back. Well, it's probably in there somewhere. So maybe we can, we can pull at that thread a little bit of the existential dread that we all feel. You mentioned that you, I think somewhere in the conversation, you mentioned that you don't really pretty much like dying. I forget in which context it might've been a reinforcement learning perspective. I don't know. I know, you know what it was? It was in teaching my kids to drive. That's how you face your mortality. Yes. From a human being's perspective or from a reinforcement learning researcher's perspective, let me ask you the most absurd question. What's, what do you think is the meaning of this whole thing? What's the meaning of life on this spinning rock? I mean, I think reinforcement learning researchers maybe think about this from a science perspective more often than a lot of other people, right? As a supervised learning person, you're probably not thinking about the sweep of a lifetime, but reinforcement learning agents are having little lifetimes, little weird little lifetimes. And it's, it's hard not to project yourself into their world sometimes. But you know, as far as the meaning of life, so I, when I turned 42, you may know from, that's a, that is a book I read, the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, that that is the meaning of life. So when I turned 42, I had a meaning of life party where I invited people over and everyone shared their meaning of life. We, they, we, they, we had slides made up. And so we had, we all sat down and did a slide presentation to each other about the meaning of life. And mine, mine was balance. I think that life is balance. And so the activity at the party for 42 year old, maybe this is a little bit non-standard, but I, I found all the little toys and devices that I had that where you had to balance on them. You had to like stand on it and balance or a pogo stick I brought, a rip stick, which is like a weird two-wheeled skateboard. I got a unicycle, but I didn't know how to do it. I now can do it. I love watching you try. Yeah, I'll send you a video. I'm not great, but I, but, but, but I managed. And so, so balanced. Yeah. So, so my, my wife has a really good one that she sticks to and is probably pretty accurate. And it has to do with healthy relationships with people that you love and working hard for good causes. But to me, yeah, balance balance in a word. That's that, that works for me, not too much of anything. Cause too much of anything is iffy. That feels like a Rolling Stones song. I feel like they must be. You can't always get what you want, but if you try sometimes you can strike a balance. Yeah, I think that's how it goes. Michael, I'll write your parody. It's a huge honor to talk to you. This is really a big fan of yours. So, can't, can't wait to see what you do next in the world of education, the world of parody and the world of reinforcement learning. Thanks for talking to me. My pleasure. Thank you for listening to this conversation with Michael Littman and thank you to our sponsors, Simply Safe, a home security company I use to monitor and protect my apartment, ExpressVPN, the VPN I've used for many years to protect my privacy on the internet, masterclass, online courses that I enjoy from some of the most amazing humans in history, and BetterHelp, online therapy with a licensed professional. Please check out these sponsors in the description to get a discount and to support this podcast. If you enjoy this thing, subscribe on YouTube, review it with Fast Stars on Apple Podcasts, follow on Spotify, support it on Patreon, or connect with me on Twitter at Lex Friedman. And now let me leave you some words from Groucho Marx. If you're not having fun, you're doing something wrong. Thank you for listening and hope to see you next time.
 The following is a conversation with Michael Litman, a computer science professor at Brown
 University doing research on and teaching machine learning, reinforcement learning,
 and artificial intelligence. He enjoys being silly and lighthearted in conversation,
 so this was definitely a fun one. Quick mention of each sponsor,
 followed by some thoughts related to the episode. Thank you to SimpliSafe, a home security company
 I use to monitor and protect my apartment, ExpressVPN, the VPN I've used for many years
 to protect my privacy and the internet, Masterclass, online courses that I enjoy
 from some of the most amazing humans in history, and BetterHelp, online therapy with a licensed
 professional. Please check out these sponsors in the description to get a discount and to support
 this podcast. As a side note, let me say that I may experiment with doing some solo episodes
 in the coming month or two. The three ideas I have floating in my head currently is to use one,
 a particular moment in history, two, a particular movie, or three, a book to drive a conversation
 about a set of related concepts. For example, I could use 2001, a space Odyssey or Ex Machina
 to talk about AGI for one, two, three hours, or I could do an episode on the, yes, rise and fall of
 Hitler and Stalin, each in a separate episode, using relevant books and historical moments
 for reference. I find the format of a solo episode very uncomfortable and challenging,
 but that just tells me that it's something I definitely need to do and learn from the experience.
 Of course, I hope you come along for the ride. Also, since we have all this momentum built up
 on announcements, I'm giving a few lectures on machine learning at MIT this January. In general,
 if you have ideas for the episodes, for the lectures, or for just short videos on YouTube,
 let me know in the comments that I still definitely read despite my better judgment
 and the wise sage device of the great Joe Rogan. If you enjoy this thing, subscribe on YouTube,
 review it with Five Stars on Apple Podcast, follow on Spotify, support on Patreon,
 or connect with me on Twitter at Lex Friedman. And now here's my conversation with Michael Lidman.
 I saw a video of you talking to Charles Isbell about Westworld, the TV series. You guys were
 doing a kind of thing where you're watching new things together, but let's rewind back. Is there
 a sci-fi movie or book or shows that was profound, that had an impact on you philosophically,
 or just specifically something you enjoyed nerding out about?
 Yeah, interesting. I think a lot of us have been inspired by robots in movies. One that I really
 like is there's a movie called Robot and Frank, which I think is really interesting because it's
 very near-term future where robots are being deployed as helpers in people's homes. And we
 don't know how to make robots like that at this point, but it seemed very plausible. It seemed very
 realistic or imaginable. I thought that was really cool because they're awkward, they do funny things,
 that raise some interesting issues, but it seemed like something that would ultimately be helpful
 and good if we could do it right. Yeah, he was an older cranky gentleman.
 He was an older cranky jewel thief. Yeah. It's kind of funny little thing, which is,
 he's a jewel thief and so he pulls the robot into his life, which is something you could imagine
 taking a home robotics thing and pulling into whatever quirky thing that's involved in your
 existence. It's meaningful to you. Exactly so. Yeah. And I think from that perspective,
 not all of us are jewel thieves and so when we bring our robots into our lives-
 Speak for yourself. Yeah.
 It explains a lot about this apartment, actually. But no, the idea that people should have the
 ability to make this technology their own, that it becomes part of their lives. And I think
 it's hard for us as technologists to make that kind of technology. It's easier to mold people
 into what we need them to be. And just that opposite vision, I think, is really inspiring.
 And then there's anthropomorphization where we project certain things on them because I think
 the robot was kind of dumb, but I have a bunch of Roombas that play with and you immediately project
 stuff onto them, but much greater level of intelligence. We'll probably do that with each
 other too. Much greater degree of compassion. That's right. One of the things we're learning
 from AI is where we are smart and where we are not smart. Yeah. You also enjoy, as people can see,
 and I enjoyed myself watching you sing and even dance a little bit, a little bit of dancing.
 A little bit of dancing. That's not quite my thing.
 As a method of education or just in life, in general. So easy question. What's the
 definitive, objectively speaking, top three songs of all time? Maybe something that,
 to walk that back a little bit, maybe something that others might be surprised by,
 the three songs that you kind of enjoy. That is a great question that I cannot answer,
 but instead let me tell you a story. Pick a question you do want to answer.
 That's right. I've been watching the presidential debates and vice presidential debates and it turns
 out, yeah, you can just answer any question you want. So, let's just say,
 let me interrupt you. It's a related question. Yeah, well said. I really like pop music. I've
 enjoyed pop music ever since I was very young. So, 60s music, 70s music, 80s music, this is all
 awesome. And then I had kids and I think I stopped listening to music and I was starting to realize
 that my musical taste had sort of frozen out. And so I decided in 2011, I think, to start
 listening to the top 10 Billboard songs each week. So I'd be on the treadmill and I would listen to
 that week's top 10 songs so I could find out what was popular now. And what I discovered is that I
 have no musical taste whatsoever. I like what I'm familiar with. And so the first time I'd hear a
 song is the first week that was on the charts. I'd be like, and then the second week I was into it
 a little bit and the third week I was loving it. And by the fourth week is like just part of me.
 And so I'm afraid that I can't tell you my favorite song of all time because it's whatever I heard
 most recently. Yeah, that's interesting. People have told me that there's an art to listening to
 music as well. And you can start to, if you listen to a song, just carefully, explicitly just
 force yourself to really listen. You start to, I did this when I was part of jazz band and fusion
 band in college. You start to hear the layers of the instruments. You start to hear the individual
 instruments. You can listen to classical music or to orchestra this way. You can listen to jazz
 this way. I mean, it's funny to imagine you now to walk in that forward to listening to pop hits
 now as like a scholar listening to like Cardi B or something like that or Justin Timberlake.
 Is he, no, not Timberlake, Bieber. They've both been in the top 10 since I've been listening.
 They're still up there. Oh my God, I'm so cool. If you haven't heard Justin Timberlake's top
 10 in the last few years, there was one song that he did where the music video was set at essentially
 NURIPS. Oh, wow. Oh, the one with the robotics. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It's like at
 an academic conference and he's doing a demo. It was sort of a cross between the Apple, like Steve
 Jobs kind of talk and NURIPS. So I, you know, it's always fun when AI shows up in pop culture.
 I wonder if he consulted somebody for that. That's very, that's really interesting. So maybe on that topic,
 I've seen your, um, your, your celebrity multiple dimensions, but one of them is you've done
 cameos in different places. I've seen you in a TurboTax commercial as like, I guess, the,
 the brilliant Einstein character. And the point is that TurboTax doesn't need somebody like you.
 It doesn't need a brilliant person. Very few things need someone like me, but yes,
 they were specifically emphasizing the idea that you don't need to be a, like a computer expert to
 be able to use their software. How'd you end up in that world? I think it's an interesting story. So I
 was teaching my class. It was an intro computer science class for non-concentrators, non-majors.
 And, uh, sometimes when people would visit campus, they would check in to say, hey, we want to see
 what a class is like. Can we sit on your class? So, uh, a person came to my class who was the
 daughter of the brother of the husband of the best friend of my wife.
 Anyway, basically a family friend came to campus to, to check out Brown and asked to come to my
 class and came with her dad. Her dad is, uh, who I've known from various kinds of family events and
 so forth, but he also does advertising. And he said that he was recruiting scientists for this,
 this, this ad, this, this TurboTax set of ads. And he said, we wrote the ad with the idea that we get
 like the most brilliant researchers. Um, but they all said no. So can you help us find the B level
 scientists? I'm like, sure. That's, that's who I hang out with. So that should be fine. So I put
 together a list and I did what some people call the dictainee. So I included myself on the list of
 possible candidates, uh, you know, with a little blurb about each one and why I thought that would
 make sense for them to do it. And they reached out to a handful of them, but then they ultimately,
 they YouTube stalked me a little bit and they thought, oh, I think he could do this. And, um,
 they said, okay, we're, we're going to offer you the commercial. I'm like, what? So, um, it was,
 it was such an interesting experience because it's, it's, they have another world. The people who do
 like nationwide kind of ad campaigns and, and television shows and movies and so forth.
 It's quite a, a remarkable system that they have going because they have a set. Yeah. So I went to,
 uh, it was just somebody's house that they rented in New Jersey. Um, but in the, in the commercial,
 it's just me and this other woman. In reality, there were 50 people in that room and another,
 I don't know, half a dozen kind of spread out around the house in various ways. There were
 people whose job it was to control the sun. They were in the backyard on ladders, putting, uh,
 filters up to try to make sure that the sun didn't glare off the window in a way that would wreck the
 shot. So there was like six people out there doing that. There was three people out there giving
 snacks, the craft table. There was another three people giving healthy snacks because that was a
 separate craft table. There was one person whose job it was to keep me from getting lost. And the,
 I think the reason for all this is because so many people are in one place at one time. They have to
 be time efficient. They have to get it done. The morning they were going to do my commercial in
 the afternoon, they were going to do a commercial of a mathematics professor from Princeton.
 They had to get it done. No, you know, no wasted time or energy. And so there's just a fleet of
 people all working as an organism. And it was fascinating. I was just the whole time, just
 looking around like, this is so neat. Like one person whose job it was to take the camera off
 of the cameraman so that someone else whose job it was to remove the film canister. Cause every
 couple's takes, they had to replace the film because you know, film gets used up. It was just,
 it was just, I don't know. I was geeking out the whole time. It was so fun. How many takes did it
 take? It looked the opposite. Like there was more than two people there. It was very relaxed.
 Right. Yeah. I mean, the person who I was in the scene with is a professional. She's a, you know,
 improv comedian from New York city. And then when I got there, they had given me a script
 as such as it was. And then I got there and they said, we're going to do this as improv. I'm like,
 I don't know how to improv. Like this is not, I don't know what this, I don't know what you're
 telling me to do here. Don't worry. She knows. Okay. We'll see how this goes. I guess I got pulled
 into the story because like, where the heck did you come from? I guess in the scene, like how did
 you show up in this random person's house? I don't know. Yeah. Well, I mean, the reality of it is I
 stood outside in the blazing sun. There was someone whose job it was to keep an umbrella over me
 because I started to sweat. I started to sweat. And so I would wreck the shot because my face was all
 shiny with sweat. So there was one person who would dab me off at an umbrella. But yeah, like the
 reality of it, like, why is this strange stalkery person hanging around outside somebody's house?
 We're not sure when you have to look in what the ways for the book, but are you, uh, so you make,
 you make, like you said, YouTube, you make videos yourself, you make awesome parody sort of, uh,
 parody songs that kind of focus in a particular aspect of computer science.
 How much those seem really natural. Uh, how much production value goes into that? Do you also have
 a team of 50 people? The videos, almost all the videos, except for the ones that people would have
 actually seen were, are just me. I write the lyrics, I sing the song. I generally find a, um,
 like a backing track online because I'm, I'm like, you can't really play an instrument.
 And then I do, in some cases I'll do visuals using just like PowerPoint,
 PowerPoint, lots and lots of PowerPoint to make it sort of like an animation.
 The, the most produced one is the one that people might've seen, which is the overfitting video that
 I did with Charles Isbell. Um, and that was produced by the Georgia tech and Udacity people
 because we were doing a class together. It was kind of, I usually do parody songs kind of to cap
 off a class at the end of a class. So that one you're wearing, so it was just a thriller.
 Yeah. You're wearing the Michael Jackson, the red leather jacket. The interesting thing with,
 with podcasting that you're also into is, uh, that I really enjoy is that there's not a team of people.
 It's kind of more, cause you know, the, the, the, there's something that happens when there's more
 people involved in just one person that just the way you start acting, I don't know, there's
 a censorship you're not given, especially for like slow thinkers like me, you're not. And I think most
 of us are, if we're trying to actually think we're a little bit slow and, and careful, it kind of
 large teams get in the way of that. And I don't know what to do with it. Like that's the, to me,
 like if, you know, there's, it's very popular to criticize, quote unquote, mainstream media.
 I, but there is legitimacy to criticizing them the same, I love listening to NPR, for example,
 but every it's clear that there's a team behind it. There's a commerce, there's constant commercial
 breaks. There's this kind of like rush of like, uh, okay, I have to interrupt you now because we
 have to go to commercial, just this whole, it creates, it destroys the possibility of nuanced
 conversation. Yeah, exactly. Evian, uh, which Charles, uh, is both what I talked to you yesterday,
 told me that Evian is naive backwards, which the fact that his mind thinks this way is just, uh,
 it's quite brilliant. Anyway, there's a freedom to this podcast. He's Dr. Awkward, which by the way,
 is a palindrome. That's a palindrome that I happen to know for, from other parts of my life. And I
 just, well, you know, use it against Charles. Dr. Awkward. So what, uh, what was the most
 challenging parody song to make? Was it the thriller one? No, that was really fun. I wrote
 the lyrics really quickly. Um, and then I gave it over to the production team. They recruited a
 a cappella group to sing that one. It went really smoothly. It's great having a team because then
 you can just focus on the part that you really love, which in my case is writing the lyrics.
 Uh, for me, the most challenging one, not challenging in a bad way, but challenging in a
 really fun way was, uh, I did one of the, one of the parody songs I did is, is about the halting
 problem in computer science. The, the, the fact that you can't create a program that can tell
 for any other arbitrary program, whether it actually going to get stuck in an infinite loop
 or whether it's going to eventually stop. And so I, I did it to an 80s song because that's,
 I hadn't started my, my new thing of learning current songs and it was Billy Joel's the piano
 man, which is a great song. Yeah. Yeah. And sing me a song. You're the piano man. Yeah.
 So the lyrics are great because first of all, it rhymes, uh, not all songs rhyme. I did, I've done
 Rolling Stone songs, which turn out to have no rhyme scheme whatsoever. They're just sort of
 yelling and having a good time, which it makes it not fun from a parody perspective. Cause like,
 you can say anything, but the, you know, the lines rhymed and there was a lot of internal rhymes as
 well. And so figuring out how to sing with internal rhymes, a proof of the halting problem
 was really challenging. And, uh, it was, I really enjoyed that process. What about, uh, last question
 this topic, what about the dancing in the thriller video? How many takes that take?
 So I wasn't planning to dance. They, they, they had to do the dance. They had to do the
 dance. They, they had me in the studio and they gave me the jacket and it's like, well, you can't,
 if you have the jacket and the glove, like there's not much you can do. So I, um, I think I just danced
 around and then they said, why don't you dance a little bit? We, we, there was a scene with me and
 Charles dancing together. They did not use it in the video, but we recorded it. Um, yeah, yeah,
 no, it was, it was pretty funny. And Charles who has this beautiful, wonderful voice doesn't really
 sing. He's not really a singer. And so that was why I designed the song with him doing a spoken
 section and me doing the same. It's very like Barry White. Yeah. It was smooth baritone. Yeah.
 Yeah. It's great. That was awesome. So one of the other things Charles said is that, you know,
 everyone knows you as like a super nice guy, super passionate about teaching and so on. Um,
 what he said, don't know if it's true that despite the fact that you're, you are super
 cold blood, like, okay, I will admit this finally for the first time that was, that was me.
 It's the Johnny Cash song. It was a man in Reno just to watch him die. Uh,
 that you actually do have some strong opinions and some topics. So if this in fact is true, what,
 uh, strong opinions would you say you have? Is there ideas you think maybe in artificial
 intelligence and machine learning, maybe in life that you believe is true that others might,
 you know, some number of people might disagree with you on?
 So I try very hard to see things from multiple perspectives.
 There's, there's this great Calvin and Hobbes, Calvin and Hobbes cartoon where
 do you know? Okay. So Calvin's dad is always kind of a bit of a foil and he, he was, he talked
 Calvin into, Calvin had done something wrong. The dad talks him into like seeing it from another
 perspective and Calvin, like this breaks Calvin because he's like, Oh my gosh, now I can see the
 opposite sides of things. And so the, it's, it becomes like a Cubist cartoon where there is no
 front and back, everything's just exposed and it really freaks him out. And finally he settles back
 down. It's like, Oh good. No, I can make that go away. But like, I'm that, I'm that I live in that
 world where I've tried, I'm trying to see everything from every perspective all the time. So there are
 some things that I've formed opinions about that I would be harder, I think to disavow me of.
 One is the super intelligence argument and the existential threat of AI is one where I feel pretty
 confident in my feeling about that one. Like I'm willing to hear other arguments, but like I am not
 particularly moved by the idea that if we're not careful, we will accidentally create a super
 intelligence that will destroy human life. Let's talk about that. Let's get you in trouble and
 record your video. It's like Bill Gates, I think he said like some quote about the internet that
 that's just going to be a small thing. It's not going to really go anywhere. And then I think
 Steve Ballmer said, I don't know why I'm sticking on Microsoft. That's something that like smartphones
 are useless. There's no reason why Microsoft should get into smartphones that kind of. So let's get,
 let's talk about AGI as AGI is destroying the world. We'll look back at this video and see
 no, I think it's really interesting to actually talk about because nobody really knows the future.
 So you have to use your best intuition. It's very difficult to predict it, but you have spoken about
 AGI and the existential risks around it and sort of based on your intuition that we're quite far
 away from that being a serious concern relative to the other concerns we have. Can you maybe unpack
 that a little bit? Yeah, sure, sure, sure. So as I understand it, for example, I read Bostrom's book
 and a bunch of other reading material about this sort of general way of thinking about the world.
 And I think the story goes something like this, that we will at some point create computers that
 are smart enough that they can help design the next version of themselves, which itself will be
 smarter than the previous version of themselves and eventually bootstrapped up to being smarter
 than us. At which point we are essentially at the mercy of this sort of more powerful intellect,
 which in principle, we don't have any control over what its goals are. And so if its goals
 are at all out of sync with our goals, like the, for example, the continued existence of humanity,
 we won't be able to stop it. It'll be way more powerful than us and we will be toast. So there's
 some, I don't know, very smart people who have signed on to that story. And it's a compelling
 story. I once, now I can really get myself in trouble. I once wrote an op-ed about this,
 specifically responding to some quotes from Elon Musk, who has been on this very podcast
 more than once. And- AI summoning the demon. I forget there's a-
 That's a thing he said, but then he came to Providence, Rhode Island, which is where I live,
 and said to the governors of all the states, you're worried about entirely the wrong thing.
 You need to be worried about AI. You need to be very, very worried about AI. So, and
 journalists kind of reacted to that and they wanted to get people's take. And I was like,
 okay, my belief is that one of the things that makes Elon Musk so successful and so remarkable
 as an individual is that he believes in the power of ideas. He believes that you can have,
 you can, if you have a really good idea for getting into space, you can get into space.
 If you have a really good idea for a company or for how to change the way that people drive,
 you just have to do it and it can happen. It's really natural to apply that same idea to
 AI. You see these systems that are doing some pretty remarkable computational
 tricks, demonstrations, and then to take that idea and just push it all the way to the limit and
 think, okay, where does this go? Where is this going to take us next? And if you're a deep
 believer in the power of ideas, then it's really natural to believe that those ideas could
 be taken to the extreme and kill us. So I think, you know, his strength is also his
 undoing because that doesn't mean it's true. Like it doesn't mean that that has to happen,
 but it's natural for him to think that. So another way to phrase the way he thinks,
 and I find it very difficult to argue with that line of thinking. So Sam Harris is another person
 from your science perspective that thinks like that is saying, well, is there something fundamental
 in the physics of the universe that prevents this from eventually happening? And Nick Bostrom thinks
 in the same way that kind of zooming out, yeah, okay, we humans now are existing in this like
 time scale of minutes and days. And so our intuition is in this time scale of minutes, hours, and days.
 But if you look at the span of human history, is there any reason we don't have to do that?
 Is there any reason we can't see this in a hundred years? And like, is there something fundamental
 about the laws of physics that prevent this? And if it doesn't, then it eventually will happen,
 or we will destroy ourselves in some other way. And it's very difficult, I find, to actually argue
 against that. And not sound like you're just rolling your ass. It's science fiction,
 we don't have to think about it. But even worse than that, which is like, I don't know if kids,
 but like I got to pick up my kids now. I see, there's more pressing short term.
 Yeah, there's more pressing short term things that stop it with this existential crisis. We have
 much shorter things like now, especially this year, there's COVID. So like any kind of discussion
 like that is like there's, you know, there's pressing things today. And then so the Sam Harris
 argument, well, like any day, the exponential singularity can occur, is very difficult to
 argue against. I mean, I don't know. But part of his story is also, he's not going to put a date
 on it. It could be in a thousand years, it could be in a hundred years, it could be in two years.
 It's just that as long as we keep making this kind of progress, it's ultimately has to become a
 concern. I kind of I'm on board with that. But the thing that the piece that I feel like is missing
 from that, that way of extrapolating from the moment that we're in, is that I believe that in
 the process of actually developing technology that can really get around in the world and really
 process and do things in the world in a sophisticated way, we're going to learn a lot about what that
 means, which that we don't know now, because we don't know how to do this right now. If you believe
 that you can just turn on a deep learning network and eventually give it enough compute and it'll
 eventually get there. Well, sure, that seems really scary, because we won't we won't be in the loop at
 all. We won't we won't be helping to design or target these kinds of systems. But I don't I don't
 see that. That feels like it is against the laws of physics, because these systems need help, right?
 They need they need to surpass the the the difficulty, the wall of complexity that happens
 in arranging something in the form that that will happen. And yeah, like I believe in evolution,
 like I believe that the that that there's an argument, right? So there's another argument,
 just to look at it from a different perspective, that people say, well, I don't believe in
 evolution, how could evolution, it's it's sort of like a random set of parts, assemble themselves
 into a 747. And that could just never happen. So it's like, okay, that's maybe hard to argue against.
 But clearly, 747s do get assembled, they get assembled by us. Basically, the idea being that
 there's a process by which we will get to the point of making technology that has that kind
 of awareness. And in that process, we're going to learn a lot about that process. And we'll have more
 ability to control it or to shape it or to build it in our own image. It's not something that is
 going to spring into existence like that 747. And we're just gonna have to contend with it,
 completely unprepared. That's very possible that in the context of the long arc of human history,
 it will in fact spring into existence. But that's that's bringing might take like if you look at
 nuclear weapons, like even 20 years is a springing in the context of human history. And it's very
 possible just like with nuclear weapons that we could have, I don't know what percentage you want
 to put at it. But the possibility of could have knocked ourselves out. Yeah, the possibility of
 human beings destroying themselves in the 20th century. With nuclear weapons, I don't know,
 you can if you really think through it, you could really put it close to like, I don't know, 30 40%,
 given like the certain moments of crisis that happened. So like, I think one,
 like fear in the shadows that's not being acknowledged, is it's not so much the AI will
 run away, is that as it's running away, we won't have enough time to think through how to stop it.
 Right, fast takeoff or foom. Yeah, I mean, my much bigger concern, I wonder what you think about it,
 which is we won't know it's happening. So I kind of think that there's an AGI situation already
 happening with social media, that our minds, our collective intelligence of human civilization is
 already being controlled by an algorithm. And like, we're already super like, the level of
 collective intelligence, thanks to Wikipedia, people should donate to Wikipedia, and we should
 donate to Wikipedia to feed the AGI. Man, if we had a super intelligence that was in line with
 Wikipedia's values, that it's a lot better than a lot of other things I could imagine. I trust
 Wikipedia more than I trust Facebook or YouTube, as far as trying to do the right thing from a
 rational perspective. Now, that's not where you were going. I understand that. But it does strike
 me that there's sort of smarter and less smart ways of exposing ourselves to each other on the
 internet. Yeah, the interesting thing is that Wikipedia and social media have very different
 forces. You're right. I mean, Wikipedia, if AGI was Wikipedia, it'd be just like this cranky,
 overly competent editor of articles. You know, there's something to that. But the social
 media aspect is not... So the vision of AGI is as a separate system that's super intelligent.
 That's super intelligent. That's one key little thing. I mean, there's the paperclip argument
 that's super dumb, but super powerful systems. But with social media, you have a relatively
 like algorithms we may talk about today, very simple algorithms that when something Charles
 talks a lot about, which is interactive AI, when they start like having at scale, like tiny little
 interactions with human beings, they can start controlling these human beings. So a single
 algorithm can control the minds of human beings slowly to what we might not realize. It could
 start wars. It could start, it could change the way we think about things. It feels like in the
 long arc of history, if I were to sort of zoom out from all the outrage and all the tension on
 social media, that it's progressing us towards better and better things. It feels like chaos and
 toxic and all that kind of stuff. But it's chaos and toxic. Yeah. But it feels like actually the
 chaos and toxic is similar to the kind of debates we had from the founding of this country. There's
 a civil war that happened over that period. And ultimately it was all about this tension of like,
 something doesn't feel right about our implementation of the core values we hold as
 human beings. And they're constantly struggling with this. And that results in people calling
 each other, just being shady to each other on Twitter. But ultimately the algorithm is managing
 all that. And it feels like there's a possible future in which that algorithm controls us into
 the direction of self-destruction and whatever that looks like. Yeah. So, all right. I do believe
 in the power of social media to screw us up royally. I do believe in the power of social media
 to benefit us too. I do think that we're in a, yeah, it sort of almost got dropped on top of us.
 And now we're trying to, as a culture, figure out how to cope with it. There's a sense in which,
 I don't know, there's some arguments that say that, for example, I guess college-age students now,
 late college-age students now, people who were in middle school when social media started to
 really take off, maybe really damaged. This may have really hurt their development in a way.
 In a way that we don't have all the implications of quite yet. That's the generation who,
 and I hate to make it somebody else's responsibility, but they're the ones who
 can fix it. They're the ones who can figure out how do we keep the good of this kind of technology
 without letting it eat us alive? And if they're successful, we move on to the next phase, the next
 level of the game. If they're not successful, then yeah, then we're going to wreck each other. We're
 going to destroy society. So you're going to, in your old age, sit on a porch and watch the world
 burn because of the TikTok generation that- I believe, well, so this is my kid's age,
 right? And certainly my daughter's age, and she's very tapped in to social stuff, but she's also,
 she's trying to find that balance, right? Of participating in it and in getting the positives
 of it, but without letting it eat her alive. And I think sometimes she ventures, I hope she doesn't
 watch this. Sometimes I think she ventures a little too far and is consumed by it, and other times she
 gets a little distance. And if there's enough people like her out there, they're going to
 navigate this choppy waters. That's an interesting skill actually to develop. I talked to my dad
 about it. I've now, somehow this podcast in particular, but other reasons has received a
 little bit of attention. And with that, apparently in this world, even though I don't shut up about
 love and I'm just all about kindness, I have now a little mini army of trolls. It's kind of hilarious
 actually, but it also doesn't feel good. But it's a skill to learn to not look at that, like to
 moderate actually how much you look at that. The discussion I have with my dad, it's similar to,
 it doesn't have to be about trolls. It could be about checking email, which is like if you're
 anticipating, you know, there's, my dad runs a large Institute at Drexel University and there
 could be stressful emails you're waiting. There's drama of some kinds. And so there's a temptation
 to check the email. If you send an email and you kind of, and that pulls you in into, it doesn't
 feel good. And it's a skill that he actually complains that he hasn't learned. I mean, he
 grew up without it. So he hasn't learned the skill of how to shut off the internet and walk away.
 And I think young people, while they're also being quote unquote damaged by like
 being bullied online, all of those stories, which are very like horrific. You basically can't escape
 your bullies these days when you're growing up. But at the same time, they're also learning that
 skill of how to be able to shut off the, like disconnect with it, be able to laugh at it,
 not take it too seriously. It's a fascinating, like we're all trying to figure this out. Just
 like you said, it's been dropped on us and we're trying to figure it out.
 Yeah, I think that's really interesting. And I guess I've become a believer in the
 human design, which I feel like I don't completely understand. Like how do you make something
 as robust as us? Like we're so flawed in so many ways and yet, and yet, you know, we dominate the
 planet and we do seem to manage to get ourselves out of scrapes eventually, not necessarily the
 most elegant possible way, but somehow we get, we get to the next step. And I don't know how I'd make
 a machine do that. I, I, I generally speaking, like if I train one of my reinforcement learning
 agents to play a video game and it works really hard on that first stage over and over and over
 again, and it makes it through it, it succeeds on that first level. And then the new level comes
 and it's just like, okay, I'm back to the drawing board. And somehow humanity, we keep leveling up
 and then somehow managing to put together the skills necessary to achieve success, some
 semblance of success in that next level too. And, you know, I hope we can keep doing that.
 You mentioned reinforcement learning. So you've have a couple of years in the field. No,
 you know, quite a few, quite a long career in artificial intelligence broadly, but
 reinforcement learning specifically. Can you maybe give a hint about your sense of the
 history of the field and in some ways it's changed with the advent of deep learning, but as a long
 roots, like how is it weaved in and out of your own life? How have you seen the community change
 or maybe the ideas that it's playing with change? I've had the privilege, the pleasure of being,
 of having almost a front row seat to a lot of this stuff. And it's been really, really fun and
 interesting. So when I was in college in the eighties, early eighties, I was in the
 eighties, early eighties, the neural net thing was starting to happen. And I was taking a lot
 of psychology classes and a lot of computer science classes as a college student. And I thought,
 you know, something that can play tic-tac-toe and just like learn to get better at it, that ought
 to be a really easy thing. So I spent almost all of my, what would have been vacations during
 college, like hacking on my home computer, trying to teach it how to play tic-tac-toe and-
 Programming language.
 Basic. Oh yeah. That's my first language. That's my native language.
 Is that when you first fell in love with computer science? Just like programming basic on that?
 What was the computer? Do you remember?
 I had a TRS-80 Model 1 before they were called Model 1s, because there was nothing else.
 I got my computer in 1979. So I would have been bar mitzvahed, but instead of having a big party
 that my parents threw on my behalf, they just got me a computer. Cause that's what I really,
 really, really wanted. I saw them in the mall in Rearshack and I thought, what, how are they doing
 that? I would try to stump them. I would give them math problems, like one plus and then in
 parentheses, two plus one. And it would always get it right. I'm like, how do you know so much?
 That's a message.
 I've had to go to algebra class for the last few years to learn this stuff and you just seem to
 know. So I was smitten and got a computer. And I think ages 13 to 15, I have no memory of those
 years. I think I just was in my room with the computer.
 Listening to Billy Joel.
 Communing, possibly listening to the radio, listening to Billy Joel. That was the one album
 I had on vinyl at that time. And then I got it on cassette tape and that was really helpful.
 Cause then I could play it. I didn't have to go down to my parents' wifi or hi-fi, sorry.
 And at age 15, I remember kind of walking out and like, okay, I'm ready to talk to people again.
 Like I've learned what I need to learn here. And so, yeah, so that was, that was my home computer.
 And so I went to college and I was like, oh, I'm totally going to study computer science. And I
 opted the college I chose specifically had a computer science major. The one that I really
 wanted, the college I really wanted to go to didn't. So bye-bye to them.
 Which college did you go to?
 So I went to Yale. Princeton would have been way more convenient and it was just beautiful
 campus and it was close enough to home. And I was really excited about Princeton. And I visited,
 I said, so computer science major is like, well, we have computer engineering. I'm like,
 oh, I don't like that word engineering. I like computer science. I really, I want to do like,
 you're saying hardware and software. They're like, yeah. I'm like, I just want to do software. I
 couldn't care less about hardware. And you grew up in Philadelphia?
 I grew up outside Philly. Yeah. Yeah. So the local schools were like Penn and Drexel and Temple.
 Like every one of my family went to Temple at least at one point in their lives, except for me.
 So yeah, Philly, Philly family.
 Yale had a computer science department and that's when you, it's kind of interesting.
 You said eighties in your own networks. That's when you know, that was a hot new thing or a hot
 thing period. So what is that in college when you first learned about your own networks?
 Yeah. Yeah.
 When she learned like how did you- And it was in a psychology class, not in a CS class.
 Oh wow. Yeah.
 Was it psychology or cognitive science or like, do you remember like what context?
 It was, yeah, yeah, yeah. So, so I was a, I've always been a bit of a cognitive psychology groupie.
 So like I, I studied computer science, but I like, I like to hang around where the cognitive
 scientists are. Cause I don't know, brains, man, they're like, they're wacky. Cool.
 And they have a bigger picture view of things. They're a little less engineering. I would say
 they're more, they're more interested in the nature of cognition and intelligence and perception
 and how like the vision system works. They're asking always bigger questions. Now with the
 deep learning community, they're, I think more, there's a lot of intersections, but I do find
 that the, the neuroscience folks actually, and a cognitive psychology, cognitive science folks
 are starting to learn how to program, how to use neural artificial neural networks.
 And they are actually approaching problems in like totally new, interesting ways. It's fun to watch
 that grad students from those departments, like approach a problem of machine learning.
 Right. They come in with a different perspective.
 Yeah. They don't care about like your image net data set or whatever. They, they want like to
 understand the, the, the, like the basic mechanisms at the, at the neuronal level,
 at the functional level of intelligence. It's kind of, it's kind of cool to see them work,
 but yeah. Okay. So you always love, you're always a groupie of cognitive psychology.
 Yeah. Yeah. And so, so it was in a class by Richard Garrick. He was kind of my, my favorite
 psych professor in college. And I took like three different classes with him.
 And yeah, so they were talking specifically the class, I think was kind of a,
 there was a big paper that was written by Steven Pinker and Prince. I don't, I'm blanking on Prince's
 first name, but Prince and Pinker and Prince, they wrote kind of a, they were at that time kind of
 like, I'm blanking on the names of the current people. The cognitive scientists who are
 complaining a lot about deep networks. Oh, Gary, Gary Marcus, sorry, Marcus. Yeah. And who else?
 I mean, there's a few, but Gary, Gary's the most feisty. Sure. Gary's very feisty. And with this,
 with his co-author, they, they, you know, they're kind of doing these kinds of take-downs where
 they say, okay, well, yeah, it does all these amazing things, but here's a shortcoming,
 here's a shortcoming, here's a shortcoming. And so the Pinker Prince paper is kind of like the,
 that generation's version of Marcus and Davis, right? Where they're, they're trained as cognitive
 scientists, but they're looking skeptically at the results in the, in the artificial intelligence
 neural net kind of world and saying, yeah, it can do this and this and this, but like, it can't do
 that and it can't do that and it can't do that. Maybe in principle or maybe just in practice at
 this point. But, but the fact of the matter is you're, you've narrowed your focus too far
 to be impressed. You know, you're impressed with the things within that circle, but you need to
 broaden that circle a little bit. You need to look at a wider set of problems. And so, so we had,
 so I was in this seminar in college that was basically a close reading of the Pinker Prince
 paper, which was like really thick. There was a lot going on in there. And, and it, and it talked
 about the reinforcement learning idea a little bit. I'm like, oh, that sounds really cool because
 behavior is what is really interesting to me about psychology anyway. So making programs that, I mean,
 programs are things that behave, people are things that behave. Like I want to make learning that
 learns to behave. In which way was reinforcement learning presented? Is this talking about human
 and animal behavior or are we talking about actual mathematical constructs? Ah, that's a great,
 so that's a good question. Right. So this is, I think it wasn't actually talked about as behavior
 in the paper that I was reading. I think that it just talked about learning. And to me, learning
 is about learning to behave, but really neural nets at that point were about learning, like
 supervised learning. So learning to produce outputs from inputs. So I kind of tried to invent
 reinforcement learning. I, when I graduated, I joined a research group at Bellcore, which had
 spun out of Bell Labs recently at that time, because of the divestiture of the, of long distance
 and local phone service in the 1980s, 1984. And I was in a group with Dave Ackley, who
 was the first author of the Boltzmann machine paper. So the very first neural net paper that
 could handle XOR, right? So XOR sort of killed neural nets. The very first, the zero width
 order. The first winter. Yeah. The perceptron's paper and Hinton, along with his student, Dave
 Ackley, and I think there was other authors as well, showed that, no, no, no, with Boltzmann
 machines, we can actually learn nonlinear concepts. And so everything's back on the table again. And
 that kind of started that second wave of neural networks. So Dave Ackley was, he became my mentor
 at, at Bellcore. And we talked a lot about learning and life and computation and how all these
 things fit together. Now Dave and I have a podcast together. So, so I get to kind of
 enjoy that sort of his, his perspective once again, even, even all these years later.
 And so I said, so I said, I was really interested in learning, but in the concept of behavior. And
 he's like, oh, well, that's reinforcement learning here. And he gave me a Rich Sutton's 1984 TD
 paper. So I read that paper. I honestly didn't get all of it, but I got the idea. I got that
 they were using that he was using ideas that I was familiar with in the context of neural nets and,
 and like sort of back prop. But with this idea of making predictions over time, I'm like, this is
 so interesting, but I don't really get all the details. I said to Dave and Dave said, oh, well,
 why don't we have him come and give a talk? And I was like, wait, what, you can do that? Like,
 these are real people. I thought they were just words. I thought it was just like ideas that
 somehow magically seeped into paper. He's like, no, I, I, I know rich, like, we'll just have him
 come down and he'll give a talk. And so I was, you know, my mind was blown. And so Rich came and he
 gave a talk at bell core. And he talked about what he was super excited, which was they had just
 figured out at the time, Q learning. So Watkins had visited the rich Sutton's lab at UMass or
 Andy Bartow's lab that Rich was a part of. And, um, he was really excited about this because it
 resolved a whole bunch of problems that he didn't know how to resolve in the, in the earlier paper.
 And so, uh, for people who don't know TD temporal difference, it's, these are all just algorithms
 for reinforcement learning. Right. And TD, the temporal difference in particular is about making
 predictions over time. And you can try to use it for making decisions, right? Cause if you can
 predict how good a future action or an action outcomes will be in the future, you can choose
 one that has better and, or, but the theory didn't really support changing your behavior.
 Like the predictions had to be of a consistent process if you really wanted it to work.
 And one of the things that was really cool about Q learning, another algorithm for reinforcement
 learning is it was off policy, which meant that you could actually be learning about the environment
 and what the value of different actions would be while actually figuring out how to behave optimally.
 So that was a revelation. Yeah. And the proof of that is kind of interesting. I mean, that's really
 surprising to me when I first read that and then enrich it, rich Sutton's book on the matter.
 It's, it's kind of a beautiful that a single equation can capture all equation, one line of
 code and like, you can learn anything. Yeah. Like equation and code. You're right. Like you can,
 the code that you can arguably, at least if you like squint your eyes can say, this is all of
 intelligence is that you can implement that in a single, well, I think I started with Lisp, which is
 shout out to Lisp, uh, like a single line of code, key piece of code, maybe a couple
 that you could do that as kind of magical. It's, uh, feels too good to be true.
 Well, and it sort of is. Yeah. It seems to require an awful lot of extra stuff supporting it,
 but, but nonetheless, the ideas, the idea is really good. And as far as we know, it is, it is
 a very reasonable way of trying to create adaptive behavior, behavior that gets better at something
 over time. Did you find the idea of optimal, uh, at all compelling that you can prove that it's
 optimal? So like one part of computer science that it makes people feel warm and fuzzy inside is when
 you can prove something like that assorting algorithm worst case runs and, and log in and
 it makes everybody feel so good. Even though in reality it doesn't really matter what the worst
 case is, what matters is like, does this thing actually work in practice on this particular
 actual set of data that I, that I enjoy? Did you, so here's that, here's a place where I have maybe
 a strong opinion, which is like, you're right. Of course, but no, no. Like, so, so the, what makes
 worst case so great, right? If you have a worst case analysis, so great is that you get modularity.
 You can take that thing and plug it into another thing and still have some understanding of what's
 going to happen when you click them together, right? If it just works well in practice, in
 other words, with respect to some distribution that you care about, when you go plug it into
 another thing, that distribution can shift and can change and your thing may not work well anymore.
 And you want it to, and you wish it does, and you hope that it will, but it might not. And then, ah.
 So you're, so you're saying you don't like machine learning.
 Yeah, but we have some positive theoretical results for these things. You know, you can come
 back at me with, yeah, but they're really weak and yeah, they're really weak. And, and you can even
 say that, you know, sorting algorithms, like if you do the optimal sorting algorithm, it's not really
 the one that you want. And that might be true as well, but. But it is, the modularity is a really
 powerful statement. I really like that. As an engineer, you can then assemble different things.
 You can count on them to be, I mean, it's interesting. It's, it's a balance like with
 everything else in life. You don't want to get too obsessed. I mean, this is what computer scientists
 do, which they tend to like get obsessed. They over optimize things that where they start by
 optimizing them, they over optimize. So it's, it's easy to like get really granular about this thing,
 but like the step from an N squared to an N log N sorting algorithm is a big leap
 for most real world systems. No matter what the actual behavior of the system is, that's a big
 leap. And the same can probably be said for other kinds of first leaps that you would take on a
 particular problem. Like it's the picking the low hanging fruit or whatever the equivalent of
 doing the, not the dumbest thing, but the next to the dumbest thing is picking the most delicious
 reachable fruit. Yeah. Most delicious reachable fruit. I don't know why that's not a saying. And
 yeah. Okay. So, so you, then this is the eighties and this kind of idea starts to percolate of,
 yeah. When I got to meet, I got to meet Rich Sutton. So everything was sort of downhill from
 there. And that was, that was really the pinnacle of everything. But then I, you know, then I felt
 like I was kind of on the inside. So then as interesting results were happening, I could like
 check in with, with rich or with Jerry Tesaro, who had a huge impact on kind of early thinking in,
 in temporal difference learning and reinforcement learning and showed that you could do,
 you could solve problems that we didn't know how to solve any other way.
 And so that was really cool. So it was good things were happening. I would hear about it from either
 the people who were doing it or the people who were talking to the people who were doing it.
 And so I was able to track things pretty well through, through the nineties.
 So what, wasn't most of the excitement on reinforcement learning in the nineties era with,
 with what is it? TD gamma, like what's the role of these kind of little like fun
 game playing things and breakthroughs about, you know, exciting the community was that like,
 what were your, cause you've also built a cross or part of building a crossword puzzle,
 a solver program, a solving program called prover. So, so you were interested in this as a problem,
 like informing, using games to understand how to build intelligent systems. So like,
 what did you think about TD gamma? Like, what did you think about that whole thing in the nineties?
 Yeah. I mean, I found the TD gammon result really just remarkable. So I had known about some of
 Jerry's stuff before he did TD gammon. He did a system, just more vanilla, well, not entirely
 vanilla, but a more classical back-proppy kind of network for playing backgammon where he was
 training it on expert moves. So it was kind of supervised, but the way that it worked was not to
 mimic the actions, but to learn internally and evaluation function. So to learn, well, if the
 expert chose this over this, that must mean that the expert values this more than this. And so
 let me adjust my weights to make it so that the network evaluates this as being better than this.
 So it could learn from human preferences, it could learn its own preferences. And then when he took
 the step from that to actually doing it as a full-on reinforcement learning problem,
 where you didn't need a trainer, you could just let it play, that was remarkable. And so I think
 as humans often do, as we've done in the recent past as well, people extrapolate. It's like,
 oh, well, if you can do that, which is obviously very hard, then obviously you could do all these
 other problems that we want to solve that we know are also really hard. And it turned out very few
 of them ended up being practical, partly because I think neural nets, certainly at the time,
 were struggling to be consistent and reliable. And so training them in a reinforcement learning
 setting was a bit of a mess. I had, I don't know, generation after generation of master students who
 wanted to do value function approximation, basically reinforcement learning with neural nets.
 And over and over and over again, we were failing. We couldn't get the good results that Jerry Tosaro
 got. I now believe that Jerry is a neural net whisperer. He has a particular ability to get
 neural networks to do things that other people would find impossible. And it's not the technology,
 it's the technology and Jerry together. Yeah. Which I think speaks to the role of the human
 expert in the process of machine learning. Right. It's so easy. We're so drawn to the idea that
 it's the technology that is where the power is coming from, that I think we lose sight of the
 fact that sometimes you need a really good... And just like, I mean, no one would think,
 hey, here's this great piece of software. Here's like, I don't know, GNU Emacs or whatever.
 And doesn't that prove that computers are super powerful and basically going to take over the
 world? It's like, no, Stahman is a hell of a hacker. Right? So he was able to make the code,
 do these amazing things. He couldn't have done it without the computer, but the computer couldn't
 have done it without him. And so I think people discount the role of people like Jerry who
 have just a particular set of skills. On that topic, by the way, as a small side note,
 I tweeted Emacs is greater than Vim yesterday and deleted the tweet 10 minutes later when I realized
 you were on fire. It started a war. Yeah. I was like, oh, I was just kidding. I was just being
 provocative. And I'm going to walk back and forth. So people still feel passionately about that
 particular piece of... Yeah, I don't get that because Emacs is clearly so much better. I don't
 understand. But why do I say that? Because I spent a block of time in the 80s making my fingers know
 the Emacs keys. And now that's part of the thought process for me. I need to express... And if you
 take my Emacs key bindings away, I become... I can't express myself. I'm the same way with... I don't
 know if you know what it is, but a Kinesis keyboard, which is this butt-shaped keyboard.
 Yes, I've seen them. They're very, I don't know, sexy, elegant. They're just beautiful.
 Yeah, they're gorgeous, way too expensive. But the problem with them, similar with Emacs, is
 once you learn to use it... It's harder to use other things.
 It's hard to use other things. There's this absurd thing where I have small, elegant, lightweight,
 beautiful little laptops, and I'm sitting there in a coffee shop with a giant Kinesis keyboard
 and a sexy little laptop. It's absurd. But I used to feel bad about it, but at the same time,
 you just kind of have to... Sometimes it's back to the Billy Joel thing. You just have to
 throw that Billy Joel record and throw it back to the Kinesis keyboard.
 You just have to throw that Billy Joel record and throw Taylor Swift and Justin Bieber to the wind.
 See, but I like them now because again, I have no musical taste. Now that I've heard Justin Bieber
 enough, I'm like, I really like his songs. And Taylor Swift, not only do I like her songs,
 but my daughter's convinced that she's a genius. And so now I basically am signed onto that.
 That's true. So yeah, that speaks to the back to the robustness of the human brain. That speaks
 to the power of plasticity. You can just like a mouse teach yourself to, or probably a dog
 teach yourself to enjoy Taylor Swift. I'll try it out. I don't know. I tried. You know what? It
 has to do with just acclimation, right? Just like you said, a couple of weeks. That's an
 interesting experiment. I'll actually try that. I'll listen to-
 If that wasn't the intent of the experiment, just like social media, it wasn't intended as
 an experiment to see what we can take as a society, but it turned out that way.
 I don't think I'll be the same person on the other side of the week listening to Taylor Swift, but
 let's try. You know, it's more compartmentalized. Don't be so worried. Like I get that you can be
 worried, but don't be so worried because we compartmentalize really well. And so it won't
 bleed into other parts of your life. You won't start, I don't know, wearing red lipstick or
 whatever. It's fine. It's fine. Change fashion and everything. It's fine. But you know what?
 The thing you have to watch out for is you'll walk into a coffee shop once we can do that again.
 And recognize the song? And you'll be, no, you won't know that you're singing along
 until everybody in the coffee shop is looking at you. And then you're like, that wasn't me.
 Yeah. That's the, you know, people are afraid of AGI. I'm afraid of the Taylor Swift takeover.
 Yeah. And I mean, people should know that TD Gammon was, I get, would you call it,
 do you like the terminology of self-play by any chance? So like systems that learn by playing
 themselves, just, I don't know if it's the best word, but-
 So what's the problem with that term?
 I don't know. Silly, it's like the big bang. Like it's like talking to serious physicists. Do you
 like the term big bang? When it was early, I feel like it's the early days of self-play. I don't know
 maybe it was used previously, but I think it's been used by only a small group of people. And so like,
 I think we're still deciding is this ridiculously silly name a good name for the cons, potentially
 one of the most important concepts in artificial intelligence. Okay. It depends how broadly you
 apply the term. So I used the term in my 1996 PhD dissertation. Wow. The actual terms of-
 Yeah. Because, because Tassaro's paper was something like training up an expert backgammon
 player through self-play. So I think it was in the title of his paper. If not in the title,
 it was definitely a term that he used. There's another term that we got from that work is roll
 out. So I don't know if you, do you ever hear the term roll out? That's a backgammon term that has
 now applied generally in computers. Well, at least in AI because of TD gammon. Yeah. That's fascinating.
 So how is self-play being used now? And like, why is it, does it, does it feel like a more general
 powerful content? It's sort of the idea of, well, the machine just going to teach itself to be smart.
 Yeah. So that's, that's where maybe you can correct me, but that's where, you know,
 the continuation of the spirit and actually like literally the exact algorithms of TD gammon are
 applied by DeepMind and OpenAI to learn games that are a little bit more complex. That when I was
 learning artificial intelligence, Go was presented to me with artificial intelligence, the modern
 approach. I don't know if they explicitly pointed to go in those books as like unsolvable kind of
 thing, like implying that these approaches hit their limit in this, with these particular kind
 of games. So something, I don't remember if the book said it or not, but something in my head,
 or if it was the professors instilled in me the idea, like this is the limits of artificial
 intelligence of the field. Like it instilled in me the idea that if we can create a system
 that can solve the game of Go, we've achieved AGI. That was kind of, I didn't explicitly like say
 this, but that was the feeling. And so from, I was one of the people that it seemed magical when
 a learning system was able to beat a human world champion at the game of Go. And even more so,
 from that, that was AlphaGo, even more so with AlphaGo Zero than kind of renamed and advanced
 into AlphaZero, beating a world champion or world-class player without any supervised
 learning on expert games, doing only through by playing itself. So that is, I don't know what to
 make of it. I think it would be interesting to hear what your opinions are on just how exciting,
 surprising, profound, interesting, or boring the breakthrough performance of AlphaZero was.
 Okay. So AlphaGo knocked my socks off. That was so remarkable.
 Which aspect of it?
 That they got it to work, that they actually were able to leverage a whole bunch of different ideas,
 integrate them into one giant system. Just the software engineering aspect of it is mind-blowing.
 I've never been a part of a program as complicated as the program that they built for that.
 And just like Jerry Tesaro is a neural net whisperer, David Silver is a kind of neural
 net whisperer too. He was able to coax these networks and these new way out there architectures
 to solve these problems that, as you said, when we were learning from AI, no one had an idea how
 to make it work. It was remarkable that these techniques that were so good at playing chess,
 and that could beat the world champion in chess, couldn't beat your typical Go playing teenager in
 Go. So the fact that in a very short number of years, we kind of ramped up to
 trouncing people in Go just blew me away.
 So you're kind of focusing on the engineering aspect, which is also very surprising.
 I mean, there's something different about large, well-funded companies. I mean, there's a compute
 aspect to it too. Of course, that's similar to Deep Blue with IBM. There's something
 important to be learned and remembered about a large company taking the ideas that are
 already out there and investing a few million dollars into it or more. And
 so you're kind of saying the engineering is kind of fascinating both on the, without for Go,
 is probably just gathering all the data, right, of the expert games, like organizing everything,
 actually doing distributed supervised learning. And to me, see, the engineering I kind of took
 for granted, to me, philosophically being able to persist in the same way that I was
 being able to persist in the face of long odds. Because it feels like, for me, I would be one of
 the skeptical people in the room thinking that you can learn your way to beat Go. It sounded like,
 especially with David Silver, it sounded like David was not confident at all. It's funny how
 confidence works. It's like, you're not cocky about it, but-
 Right. Because if you're cocky about it, you kind of stop and stall and don't get anywhere.
 Yeah. But there's a hope that's unbreakable. Maybe that's better than confidence. It's a kind of
 wishful hope and a little dream, and you almost don't want to do anything else. You kind of
 keep doing it. That seems to be the story. And-
 But with enough skepticism that you're looking for where the problems are and fighting through
 them. Because you know there's got to be a way out of this thing. Yeah.
 And for him, it was probably, there's a bunch of little factors that come into play. It's funny how
 these stories just all come together. Everything he did in his life came into play, which is a love
 for video games and also a connection to... So the 90s had to happen with TD Gammon and so on.
 Yeah. And in some ways it's surprising, maybe you can provide some intuition to it, that not much
 more than TD Gammon was done for quite a long time on the reinforcement learning front.
 Yeah. Is that weird to you?
 I mean, like I said, the students who I worked with, we tried to get,
 basically apply that architecture to other problems. And we consistently failed. There were a
 couple of really nice demonstrations that ended up being in the literature. There was a paper about
 controlling elevators, right? Where it's like, okay, can we modify the heuristic that elevators
 use for deciding, like a bank of elevators for deciding which floors we should be stopping on
 to maximize throughput essentially? And you can set that up as a reinforcement learning problem.
 And you can have a neural net represent the value function so that it's taking where are all the
 elevators, where are the button pushes, this high dimensional, well, at the time, high dimensional
 input, a couple dozen dimensions, and turn that into a prediction as to, oh, is it going to be
 better if I stop at this floor or not? And ultimately it appeared as though for the
 standard simulation distribution for people trying to leave the building at the end of the day,
 that the neural net learned a better strategy than the standard one that's implemented in
 elevator controllers. So that was nice. There was some work that Satindra Singh et al. did on
 handoffs with cell phones, deciding when should you hand off from this cell tower to this cell tower.
 Oh, okay. Communication networks, yeah.
 Yeah. And so a couple things seemed like they were really promising. None of them made it into
 production that I'm aware of. And neural nets as a whole started to kind of implode around then.
 And so there just wasn't a lot of air in the room for people to try to figure out, okay,
 how do we get this to work in the RL setting?
 And then they found their way back in 10 plus years. So you said AlphaGo was impressive,
 like it's a big spectacle. Is there-
 Right, so then AlphaZero. So I think I may have a slightly different opinion on this than some
 people. So I talked to Satindra Singh in particular about this. So Satindra was a like Rich Sutton,
 a student of Antibarto. So they came out of the same lab, very influential machine learning,
 reinforcement learning researcher, now at DeepMind as is Rich, though different sites, the two of them.
 He's in Alberta.
 Rich is in Alberta and Satindra would be in England, but I think he's in England from Michigan
 at the moment. But he was, yes, he was much more impressed with AlphaGo Zero, which is, didn't
 get a kind of a bootstrap in the beginning with human-trained games.
 It just was purely self-play. Though the first one, AlphaGo, was also a tremendous amount of
 self-play. They started off, they kick-started the action network that was making decisions,
 but then they trained it for a really long time using more traditional temporal difference
 methods. So as a result, it didn't seem that different to me. It seems like, yeah, why wouldn't
 that work? Once it works, it works. But he found that removal of that extra information to be
 breathtaking. That's a game changer. To me, the first thing was more of a game changer.
 But the open question, I guess that's the assumption, is the expert games might contain within them
 a humongous amount of information.
 But we know that it went beyond that. We know that it somehow got away from the game,
 that it somehow got away from that information because it was learning strategies. I don't think
 AlphaGo is just better at implementing human strategies. I think it actually developed its
 own strategies that were more effective. And so from that perspective, okay, well, so it made
 at least one quantum leap in terms of strategic knowledge. Okay, so now maybe it makes three.
 Okay, but that first one is the doozy, right? Getting it to work reliably and for the networks
 to hold onto the value well enough. That was a big step.
 Well, maybe you could speak to this on the reinforcement learning front. So starting from
 scratch and learning to do something, like the first random behavior to crappy behavior to
 somewhat okay behavior. It's not obvious to me that that's not impossible to take those steps.
 If you just think about the intuition, how the heck does random behavior become somewhat basic,
 intelligent behavior? Not human level, not superhuman level, but just basic. But you're
 saying to you, the intuition is like, if you can go from human to superhuman level intelligence
 on this particular task of game playing, then you're good at taking leaps. So you can take
 many of them. That the system, I believe that the system can take that kind of leap. Yeah,
 and also I think that beginner knowledge in go, you can start to get a feel really quickly
 for the idea that being in certain parts of the board seems to be more associated with winning.
 Right? Because it's not stumbling upon the concept of winning. It's told that it wins
 or that it loses. Well, it's self play. So it both wins and loses. It's told which side won.
 And the information is kind of there to start percolating around to make a difference as to,
 well, these things have a better chance of helping you win and these things have a worse chance of
 helping you win. And so it can get to basic play, I think pretty quickly. Then once it has basic
 play, well, now it's kind of forced to do some search to actually experiment with, okay, well,
 what gets me that next increment of improvement? How far do you think, okay, this is where you
 kind of bring up the Elon Musk and the Sam Harris is right. How far is your intuition about these
 kinds of self-playing mechanisms being able to take us? Because it feels one of the ominous,
 but stated calmly things that when I talked to David Silver, he said, is that they have not yet
 discovered a ceiling for AlphaZero, for example, on the game of Go or chess. Like it keeps, no
 matter how much they compute, they throw at it, it keeps improving. So it's possible, it's very
 possible that if you throw some like 10X compute that it will improve by 5X or something like that.
 And when stated calmly, it's so like, oh yeah, I guess so. But like, and then you think like,
 well, can we potentially have like continuations of Moore's law in totally different ways, like
 broadly defined Moore's law, not the continental improvement, exponential improvement, like,
 are we going to have an AlphaZero that swallows the world?
 But notice it's not getting better at other things. It's getting better at the
 but notice it's not getting better at other things. It's getting better at Go.
 And I think it's a, that's a big leap to say, okay, well, therefore it's better at other things.
 Well, I mean, the question is how much of the game of life can be turned into.
 Right. So that's, that I think is a really good question. And I think that we don't,
 I don't think we as a, I don't know, community really know that the answer to this, but
 so, okay. So, so I went, I went to a talk by some experts on computer chess. So in particular,
 computer chess is really interesting because, you know, for, of course, for a thousand years,
 humans were the best chess playing things on the planet. And then computers like edged ahead of
 the best person and they've been ahead ever since. It's not like people have, have overtaken computers,
 but, but computers and people together have overtaken computers. Right. So at least last time
 I checked, I don't know what the very latest is, but last time I checked that there were teams of
 people who could work with computer programs to defeat the best computer programs. In the game of
 Go? In the game of chess. In the game of chess. Right. And so using the information about how
 these things called ELO scores, this sort of notion of how strong a player are you,
 there's a, there's kind of a range of possible scores and the, you increment in score.
 Basically, if you can beat another player of that lower score, 62% of the time or something like
 that, like there's some threshold of, if you can somewhat consistently beat someone, then you are
 of a higher score than that person. And there's a question as to how many times can you do that in
 chess? Right. And so we know that there's a range of human ability levels that cap out with the best
 playing humans. And the computers went a step beyond that and computers and people together have
 not gone, I think a full step beyond that. It feels the estimates that they have is that it's
 starting to asymptote that we've reached kind of the maximum, the best possible chess playing.
 And so that means that there's kind of a finite strategic depth, right? At some point, you just
 can't get any better at this game. Yeah. I mean, I don't, so I like to check that. I think it's
 interesting because if you have somebody like Magnus Carlsen, who's using these chess programs
 to train his mind, like to learn about chess, to become a better chess player. Yeah. And so like,
 that's a very interesting thing because we're not static creatures. We're learning together. I mean,
 just like we're talking about social networks, those algorithms are teaching us just like we're
 teaching those algorithms. So that's a fascinating thing. But I think the best chess playing programs
 are now better than the pairs. Like they have competition between pairs, but it's still, even
 if they weren't, it's an interesting question. Where's the ceiling? So the David, the ominous
 David Silver kind of statement is like, we have not found the ceiling. Right. But so the question is,
 okay, so I don't know his analysis on that. My, from talking to go experts, the depth,
 the strategic depth of go seems to be substantially greater than that of chess, that there's more kind
 of steps of improvement that you can make getting better and better and better and better. But there's
 no reason to think that it's infinite. And so it could be that it's, that what David is seeing is
 a kind of asymptoting that you can keep getting better, but with diminishing returns. And at some
 point you hit optimal play. Like in theory, all these finite games, they're finite. They have an
 optimal strategy. There's a strategy that is the mini max optimal strategy. And so at that point,
 you can't get any better. You can't beat that, that strategy. Now that strategy may be
 from an information processing perspective, intractable, right? You need,
 all the situations are sufficiently different that you can't compress it at all. It's this
 giant mess of hard coded rules and we can never achieve that. But, but that still puts a cap on
 how many levels of improvement that we can actually make. But the, the, the thing about self play is
 if you, if you put it, although I don't like doing that in the broader category of self supervised
 learning is that it doesn't require too much or any human human labeling. Yeah. Human label or just
 human effort, the human involvement past a certain point. And the same thing you could argue is true
 for the recent breakthroughs in natural English processing with language models. Oh, this is how
 you get to GPT three. Yeah. See how that did the, uh, that was a good, good transition. Yeah.
 Yeah. I practiced that for days leading up to this, you know, uh, but like that's one of the questions
 is can we find ways to formulate problems in this world that are important to us humans,
 like more important than the game of chess that, uh, to which self supervised kinds of approaches
 could be applied, whether it's self play, for example, for like, maybe you could think of like
 autonomous vehicles in, in simulation, that kind of stuff, or just robotics applications and simulation
 or, uh, in the self supervised learning where on, uh, unannotated data or data that's generated by
 humans naturally without extra costs, like the Wikipedia or like all of the internet can be used
 to, to learn something about, to create intelligence systems that do something, uh, really powerful
 that pass the touring test or that do some kind of superhuman level performance. So what's your
 intuition? They trying to stitch all of it together about our discussion of AGI, the limits of self
 play and your thoughts about maybe the limits of neural networks in the context of language models.
 Is there some intuition in there that might be useful to think about? Yeah, yeah. Yeah. So, so
 first of all, the, the whole transformer network family of things, um, is really cool. It's really,
 really cool. I mean, for, you know, if you've ever, back in the day you played with, I don't know,
 Markov models for generating texts and you've seen the kind of texts that they spit out and you
 compare it to what's happening now. It's, it's amazing. It's so amazing. Now it doesn't take very
 long interacting with one of these systems before you find the holes, right? It's so, so, so
 amazing. It's, it's not smart in any kind of general way. It's really good at a bunch of things.
 And it does seem to understand a lot of the statistics of language extremely well. And that
 turns out to be very powerful. You can answer many questions with that, but it doesn't make it a good
 conversationalist, right? And it doesn't make it a good storyteller. It just makes it good at imitating
 of things that is seen in the past. The exact same thing could be said by people who are voting for
 Donald Trump about Joe Biden supporters and people voting for Joe Biden about Donald Trump supporters
 is, you know, that they're not intelligent. They're just following the, yeah, they're following
 things they've seen in the past. And so it's very, it doesn't take long to find the flaws in their,
 in their like natural language generation abilities. Yes. So we're being very, that's
 interesting. Critical of AI systems. Right. So, so I've had a similar thought, which was that the stories that
 GPT-3 spits out are amazing and very human-like. And it doesn't mean that computers are smarter than
 we realize necessarily. It partly means that people are dumber than we realize, or that much of what we
 do day to day is not that deep. Like we're just, we're just kind of going with the flow. We're saying
 whatever feels like the natural thing to say next. Not a lot of it is, is, is creative or meaningful
 or intentional, but enough is that we actually get, we get by, right? We do come up with new ideas
 sometimes and we do manage to talk each other into things sometimes. And we do sometimes vote for
 reasonable people sometimes, but, but it's really hard to see in the statistics because so much of
 what we're saying is kind of rote. And so our metrics that we use to measure how these systems
 are doing don't reveal that because it's, it's, it's in the interstices that, that is very hard
 to detect. But is your, do you have any intuition that with these language models, if they grow in
 size, it's already surprising that when you go from GPT-2 to GPT-3, that there is a noticeable
 improvement. So the question now goes back to the ominous David Silver and the ceiling. Right. So
 maybe there's just no ceiling. We just need more compute now. I mean, okay. So now I'm speculating
 yes, as opposed to before when I was completely on firm ground. All right. I don't believe that you
 can get something that really can do language and use language as a thing that doesn't interact
 with people. Like, I think that it's not enough to just take everything that we've said written
 down and just say, that's enough. You can just learn from that and you can be intelligent.
 I think you really need to be pushed back at, I think that conversations, even people who are
 pretty smart, maybe the smartest thing that we know, not maybe not the smartest thing we can imagine,
 but we get so much benefit out of talking to each other and interacting. That's presumably why you
 have conversations live with guests is that, that there's something in that interaction that would
 not be exposed by, oh, I'll just write you a story and then you can read it later. And I think,
 I think because these systems are just learning from our stories, they're not learning from
 being pushed back at by us, that they're fundamentally limited into what they could
 actually become on this route. They have to, they have to get shut down. Like we have to have an
 argument that they have to have an argument with us and lose a couple of times before they start
 to realize, oh, okay, wait, there's some nuance here that actually matters. Yeah. That's actually
 subtle sounding, but quite profound that the interaction with humans is essential.
 And the limitation within that is profound as well, because the time scale, like the bandwidth at
 which you can really interact with humans is very low. So it's costly. So you can't, one of the
 underlying things about self plays, it has to do, you know, a very large number of interactions.
 And so you can't really deploy reinforcement learning systems into the real world to interact.
 Like you couldn't deploy a language model into the real world to interact with humans,
 because it was just not getting enough data relative to the cost it takes to interact. Like
 the time of humans is, is, is expensive, which is really interesting. That's the good, that takes us
 back to reinforcement learning and trying to figure out if there's ways to make algorithms that are
 more efficient at learning, keep the spirit and reinforcement learning and become more efficient.
 In some sense, that seems to be the goal. I'd love to hear what your thoughts are. I don't know if
 you got the chance to see a blog post called Bitter Lesson. Oh yes. By Rich Sutton that makes
 an argument. Hopefully I can summarize it. Perhaps, perhaps you can. Yeah. Okay. So I mean,
 I could try and you can correct me, which is, he makes an argument that it seems if we look at the
 long arc of the history of the artificial intelligence field, it calls, you know, 70 years
 that the algorithms from which we've seen the biggest improvements in practice are the very
 simple, like dumb algorithms that are able to leverage computation. And you just wait for the
 computation to improve. Like all of the academics and so on have fun by finding little tricks and,
 and congratulate themselves on those tricks. And sometimes those tricks can be like big,
 they feel in the moment, like big spikes and breakthroughs, but in reality over the decades,
 it's still the same dumb algorithm that just waits for the compute to get faster and faster.
 Mm. Do you find that to be an interesting argument against the entirety of the field
 of machine learning as an academic discipline? That we're really just a subfield of computer
 architecture. Yeah. We're just kind of waiting around for them to do their next thing.
 Who really don't want to do hardware work. So like-
 That's right. I really don't want to think about that.
 We're procrastinating.
 Yes. That's right. Just waiting for them to do their job so that we can pretend to have done ours.
 So yeah, I mean, the argument reminds me a lot of, I think it was a Fred Jelinek quote,
 early computational linguist who said, you know, we're building these computational linguistic
 systems and every time we fire a linguist, performance goes up by 10%, something like that.
 And so the idea of us building the knowledge in, in that, in that case was much less, he was finding
 it to be much less successful than get rid of the people who know about language as a, you know, from
 a kind of scholastic academic kind of perspective and replace them with more compute. And so I think
 this is kind of a modern version of that story, which is, okay, we want to do better on machine
 vision. You could build in all these, you know, motivated part-based models that, you know, that
 just feel like obviously the right thing that you have to have, or we can throw a lot of data at it
 and guess what we're doing better with it with a lot of data. So I hadn't thought about it until
 this moment in this way, but what I believe, well, I've thought about what I believe, what I believe
 is that, you know, compositionality and what's the right way to say it, the complexity grows
 rapidly as you consider more and more possibilities, like explosively. And so far Moore's law has also
 been growing explosively, exponentially. And so, so it really does seem like, well, we don't have to
 think really hard about the algorithm design or the way that we build the systems, because the best
 benefit we could get is exponential and the best benefit that we can get from waiting is exponential.
 So we can just wait. It's got, that's got to end, right? And there's hints now that Moore's law is
 starting to feel some friction, starting to, the world is pushing back a little bit. One thing I,
 I don't know, do lots of people know this? I didn't know this. I was, I was trying to write an essay
 and yeah, Moore's law has been amazing and it's been, it's enabled all sorts of things, but there's
 a, there's also a kind of counter Moore's law, which is that the development cost for each
 successive generation of chips also is doubling. So it's costing twice as much money. So the amount
 of development money per cycle or whatever is actually sort of constant. And at some point we
 run out of money. So, or we have to come up with an entirely different way of, of doing the development
 process. So like, I guess I always, always a bit skeptical of the look, it's an exponential curve,
 therefore it has no end. Soon the number of people going to NeurIPS will be greater than the population
 of the earth. That means we're going to discover life on other planets. No, it doesn't. It means
 that we're in a, in a sigmoid curve on the front half, which looks a lot like an exponential.
 The second half is going to look a lot like diminishing returns. Yeah. The, I mean, but the
 interesting thing about Moore's law, if you actually like look at the technologies involved, it's
 hundreds, if not thousands of S curves stacked on top of each other. It's not actually an exponential
 curve. It's constant breakthroughs. And then what becomes useful to think about, which is exactly
 what you're saying, the cost of development, like the size of teams, the amount of resources that
 are invested in continuing to find new S curves, new breakthroughs. And yeah, it's a, it's an
 interesting idea. You know, if we live in the moment, if we sit here today, it seems to be the
 reasonable thing to say that exponentials end. And yet in the software realm, they just keep
 appearing to be happening. And it's so, I mean, it's so hard to disagree with Elon Musk on this
 because it, like I've, you know, I used to be one of those folks. I'm still one of those folks. I
 studied autonomous vehicles. This is what I worked on. And, and it's, it's like, you look at what Elon
 Musk is saying about autonomous vehicles. Well, obviously in a couple of years or in a year or,
 or next month we'll have fully autonomous vehicles. Like there's no reason why we can't.
 Driving is pretty simple. Like it's just a learning problem and you just need to convert
 all the driving that we're doing into data and just having, you know, with the trains and that
 data and like we use only our eyes. So you can use cameras and you can train on it. And it's like,
 yeah, that's that what that should work. And then you put that hat on, like the philosophical hat.
 And, but then you put the pragmatic hat and it's like, this is what the flaws of computer vision
 are. Like this is what it means to trans scale. And then you, you put the human factors, the
 psychology hat on, which is like, it's actually driving us a lot. The cognitive science or
 cognitive, whatever the heck you call it is, it's really hard. It's much harder to drive than,
 than we realize there's much larger number of edge cases. So building up an intuition around this is,
 is around exponential is really difficult. And on top of that, the pandemic is making us think
 about exponentials, making us realize that like, we don't understand anything about it. We're not
 able to intuit exponentials. We're either ultra terrified some part of the population and some
 part is like, uh, the opposite of whatever the different carefree and we're not managing it.
 Blase. Wow. That's that French. Uh, it's got an accent. So it's, uh, it's fascinating to think
 what, what the limits of this exponential growth of technology, not just Moore's law,
 it's technology, how that rubs up against the bitter lesson and GPT three and self play mechanisms.
 Like, it's not obvious. I used to be much more skeptical about neural networks. Now I at least
 give a slither of possibility that will be all, that will be very much surprised and also, you know,
 uh, caught in a way that like, we, uh, are not prepared for like in applications of, um,
 social networks, for example, because it feels like really good transformer models that are able
 to do some kind of like very good, uh, natural language generation of the same kind of models
 that could be used to learn human behavior and then manipulate that human behavior to
 gain advertisers dollars and all those kinds of things. Uh, if he, the capitalist system and,
 and they arguably already are manipulating human behavior. Yeah. Yeah. So, but not for
 self preservation, which I think is a big, that would be a big step. Like if they were trying to
 manipulate us to convince us not to shut them off, I would be very freaked out, but I don't see a
 path to that from where we are now. They, they, they don't have any of those abilities. That's
 not what they're trying to do. They're trying to keep people on, on the site. But see, the thing is
 this, this is the thing about life on earth is they might be borrowing our consciousness and
 sentience. Like, so like in a sense they do because the creators of the algorithms have like, they're
 not, you know, if you look at our body, we're not a single organism. We're a huge number of organism
 with like tiny little motivations. We're built on top of each other in the same sense, the AI
 algorithms that are, they're not like system that includes companies and corporations, right?
 Cause corporations are funny organisms in and of themselves that really do seem to have self
 preservation built in. And I think that's at the, at the design level. I think the design to have
 self preservation be a focus. So you're right in that, in that broader system that we're also a
 part of and can have some influence on, it's, it's, it is much more complicated, much more powerful.
 Yeah, I agree with that. So people really love it when I ask what three books, technical,
 philosophical fiction had a big impact in your life. Maybe you can recommend, we went with movies.
 We went with Billy Joel and I forgot what you, what music you recommended, but
 I didn't. I just said, I have no taste in music. I just like pop music.
 That was actually really skillful the way you have.
 Thank you. Thanks. I was, I'm going to try to do the same with the books.
 So do you have a skillful way to avoid answering the question about three books you would recommend?
 I'd like to tell you a story. So my first job out of college was at Bellcore. I mentioned that before
 where I worked with Dave Ackley. The head of the group was a guy named Tom Landauer. And I don't
 know how well known he's known now, but arguably he's the, he's the inventor and the first
 proselytizer of word embeddings. So they, they developed a system shortly before I got to the
 group. Yeah. That, that called latent semantic analysis that would take words of English and
 embed them in a multi hundred dimensional space and then use that as a way of, you know, assessing
 similarity and basically doing reinforcement learning and not sorry, not reinforcement,
 information retrieval, you know, sort of pre-Google information retrieval. And he was trained as an
 anthropologist, but then would became a cognitive scientist. So I was in the cognitive science
 research group. It's, you know, like I said, I'm a cognitive science groupie. At the time, I thought
 I'd become a cognitive scientist, but then I realized in that group, no, I'm a computer
 scientist, but I'm a computer scientist who really loves to hang out with cognitive scientists.
 And he said, he studied language acquisition in particular. He said, you know, humans have about
 this number of words of vocabulary and most of that is learned from reading. And I said, that
 can't be true because I have a really big vocabulary and I don't read. He's like, you must. I'm like,
 I don't think I do. I mean, like stop signs. I definitely read stop signs, but like reading
 books is not, it's not a thing that I do. Really though. It might be just visual, maybe the red color.
 Do I read stop signs? Yeah. No, it's just pattern recognition at this point. I don't sound it out.
 Yeah. So now I do. I wonder what that, oh yeah, stop the guns. So that's fascinating. So you don't,
 so I don't read very, I mean, obviously I read and I've read, I've read plenty of books, but like
 some people like Charles, my friend Charles and others, like a lot of people in my field,
 a lot of academics, like reading was really a central topic to them in development. And I'm not
 that guy. In fact, I used to joke that when I got into college, that it was on kind of a,
 help out the illiterate kind of program because I got to college, like in my house,
 I wasn't a particularly bad or good reader, but when I got to college, I was surrounded by these
 people that were just voracious in their reading appetite. And they would like, have you read this?
 Have you read this? Have you read this? And I'd be like, no, I'm clearly not qualified to be at
 this school. Like there's no way I should be here. Now I've discovered books on tape, like audio books.
 And so I'm much better. I'm more caught up. I read a lot of books.
 There's a small tangent on that. It is a fascinating open question to me on the topic of driving,
 whether, you know, supervised learning people, machine learning people think you have to like
 drive to learn how to drive. To me, it's very possible that just by us humans, by first of all,
 walking, but also by watching other people drive, not even being inside cars as a passenger,
 but let's say being inside the car as a passenger, but even just like being a pedestrian and crossing
 the road, you learn so much about driving from that. It's very possible that you can, without
 ever being inside of a car, be okay at driving once you get in it or like watching a movie,
 for example. I don't know something like that. Have you taught anyone to drive? No. So
 except myself, I have two children and I learned a lot about car driving because my wife doesn't
 want to be the one in the car while they're learning. So that's my job. So I sit in the
 passenger seat and it's really scary. I have wishes to live and they're figuring things out.
 Now they start off very much better than I imagine like a neural network would. They get that they're
 seeing the world. They get that there's a road that they're trying to be on. They get that there's a
 relationship between the angle of the steering, but it takes a while to not be very jerky.
 And so that happens pretty quickly. Like the ability to stay in lane at speed, that happens
 relatively fast. It's not zero-shot learning, but it's pretty fast. The thing that's remarkably
 hard, and this is, I think, partly why self-driving cars are really hard, is the degree to which
 driving is a social interaction activity. And that blew me away. I was completely unaware of it until
 I watched my son learning to drive. And I was realizing that he was sending signals to all the
 cars around him. And those, in his case, he's always had social communication challenges.
 He was sending very mixed, confusing signals to the other cars, and that was causing the other
 cars to drive weirdly and erratically. And there was no question in my mind that he would have an
 accident because they didn't know how to read him. There's things you do with the speed that you
 drive, the positioning of your car, that you're constantly like in the head of the other driver,
 in the head of the other drivers. And seeing him not knowing how to do that and having to be taught
 explicitly, okay, you have to be thinking about what the other driver is thinking, was a revelation
 to me. I was stunned. Yeah, it's quite brilliant. So creating theories of mind of the other-
 Theories of mind of the other cars. Yeah. Yeah. Which I just hadn't heard discussed in the self-driving
 car talks that I've been to. Since then, there's some people who do consider those kinds of issues,
 but it's way more subtle than I think- There's a little bit of work involved with that when you
 realize, when you especially focus not on other cars, but on pedestrians, for example, it's literally
 staring you in the face. Yeah, yeah, yeah. So then when you're just like, how do I interact
 with pedestrians? Pedestrians, you're practically talking to an octopus at that point. They've got
 all these weird degrees of freedom. You don't know what they're going to do. They can turn around any
 second. But the point is we humans know what they're going to do. We have a good theory of
 mind. We have a good mental model of what they're doing. And we have a good model of the model that
 have a view and the model of the model of the model. We're able to reason about this kind of
 the social game of it. The hope is that it's quite simple actually, that it could be learned.
 That's what I just talked to the Waymo. I don't know if you know that company. It's Google South
 Africa. I talked to their CTO about this podcast. I rode in their car and it's quite aggressive and
 it's quite fast and it's good and it feels great. It also, just like Tesla, Waymo made me change my
 mind about maybe driving is easier than I thought. Maybe I'm just being speciesist, human centered.
 Maybe... It's a speciesist argument. Yes. I don't know. But it's fascinating to think about the same
 as with reading, which I think you just said. You avoided the question, though I still hope you
 answered it somewhat. You avoided it brilliantly. There's blind spots that artificial intelligence
 researchers have about what it actually takes to learn to solve a problem. That's fascinating.
 Have you had Anka Dragan on? Yeah. She's one of my favorites. So much energy.
 She's amazing. Fantastic. In particular, she thinks a lot about this kind of,
 I know that you know that I know kind of planning. The last time I spoke with her,
 she was very articulate about the ways in which self-driving cars are not solved. What's still
 really, really hard. Even her intuition is limited. We're all new to this. In some sense,
 the Elon Musk approach of being ultra confident and just like plowing...
 Put it out there. Putting it out there. Some people say it's reckless and dangerous and so on.
 But partly it seems to be one of the only ways to make progress in artificial intelligence.
 These are difficult things. Democracy is messy. Implementation of artificial
 intelligence systems in the real world is messy. So many years ago, before self-driving cars were
 an actual thing you could have a discussion about, somebody asked me, what if we could use
 that robotic technology and use it to drive cars around? Aren't people going to be killed and then
 it's now, blah, blah, blah. I'm like, that's not what's going to happen. I said with confidence,
 incorrectly, obviously. What I think is going to happen is we're going to have a lot more,
 a very gradual kind of rollout where people have these cars in closed communities, right?
 Where it's somewhat realistic, but it's still in a box, right? So that we can really get a sense of
 what are the weird things that can happen? How do we have to change the way we behave around these
 vehicles? It obviously requires a kind of coevolution that you can't just plop them in
 and see what happens. But of course, we're basically popping them in and see what happens.
 So I was wrong, but I do think that would have been a better plan.
 Yeah. But your intuition is funny, just zooming out and looking at the forces of capitalism.
 And it seems that capitalism rewards risk takers and rewards and punishes risk takers.
 Try it out. The academic approach to let's try a small thing and try to understand slowly the
 fundamentals of the problem. And let's start with one, then do two, and then see that,
 and then do the three. The capitalist startup entrepreneurial dream is let's build a thousand.
 Right. And 500 of them fail, but whatever, the other 500 we learned from them.
 But if you're good enough, one thing is your intuition would say that's going to be hugely
 destructive to everything. But actually, the forces of capitalism, it's easy to be critical,
 but if you actually look at the data, at the way our world has progressed in terms of the quality
 of life, it seems that the competent, good people rise to the top. This is coming from me from the
 Soviet Union and so on. It's interesting that somebody like Elon Musk is the way you push
 progress and artificial intelligence. It's forcing Waymo to step their stuff up and
 Waymo is forcing Elon Musk to step up. It's fascinating because I have this tension in my
 heart and just being upset by the lack of progress in autonomous vehicles within academia.
 So there's a huge progress in the early days of the DARPA challenges. And then it just kind of
 stopped like at MIT, but it's true everywhere else with an exception of a few sponsors here and there
 is like, it's not seen as a sexy problem. Like the moment artificial intelligence starts
 approaching the problems of the real world, like academics kind of like, all right.
 They get really hard in a different way.
 In a different way. That's right.
 I think, yeah, right. Some of us are not excited about that other way.
 But I still think there's fundamentals problems to be solved in those difficult things. It's not,
 it's still publishable, I think. We just need to, it's the same criticism you could have of all
 these conferences in Europe, CVPR, where application papers are often as powerful and as important as
 like a theory paper, even like theory just seems much more respectable and so on. I mean,
 in machine learning communities changing that a little bit, I mean, at least in statements,
 but it's still not seen as the sexiest of pursuits, which is like, how do I actually
 make this thing work in practice as opposed to on this toy data set? All that to say,
 are you still avoiding the three books question? Is there something on audiobook that you can
 recommend? Oh, yeah. I mean, yeah, I've read a lot of really fun stuff. In terms of books that
 I find myself thinking back on that I read a while ago, like the test of time to some degree,
 I find myself thinking of program or be programmed a lot by Douglas Roshkop, which was, it basically
 put out the premise that we all need to become programmers in one form or another. And it was
 an analogy to once upon a time we all had to become readers, we had to become literate. And
 there was a time before that when not everybody was literate, but once literacy was possible,
 the people who were literate had more of a say in society than the people who weren't.
 And so we made a big effort to get everybody up to speed. And now it's not 100% universal,
 but it's quite widespread. The assumption is generally that people can read.
 The analogy that he makes is that programming is a similar kind of thing, that we need to have a say
 in, right? So being a reader, being literate, being a reader means you can receive all this information,
 but you don't get to put it out there. And programming is the way that we get to put it out
 there. And that was the argument they made. I think he specifically has now backed away from
 this idea. He doesn't think it's happening quite this way. And that might be true that it didn't,
 society didn't sort of play forward quite that way. I still believe in the premise. I still believe
 that at some point we have the relationship that we have to these machines and these networks has
 to be one of each individual has the wherewithal to make the machines help them do the things that
 that person wants done. And as software people, we know how to do that. And when we have a problem,
 we're like, okay, I'll just, I'll hack up a Pearlscript or something and make it so.
 If we lived in a world where everybody could do that, that would be a better world.
 And computers would be have, I think less sway over us and other people's software would have
 less sway over us as a group. Yeah. In some sense, software engineering programming is power.
 It's programming is power, right? It's yeah, it's like magic. It's like magic spells and,
 and it's not out of reach of everyone, but at the moment it's just a sliver of the population who
 can, who can commune with machines in this way. So I don't know. So that book had a big, big impact
 on me. Currently I'm reading the alignment problem actually by Brian Christian. So I don't know if
 you've seen this out there yet. Is this similar to just your Russell's work with the control problem?
 It's in that same general neighborhood. I mean, they, they take, they have different
 emphases that they're, they're concentrating on. I think, I think Stuart's book did a remarkably
 good job. Like a, like just a celebratory good job at describing AI technology and sort of how it
 works. I thought that was great. It was really cool to see that in a book. Yeah. I think he has
 some experience writing some books. You know, that's probably a possible thing. He's maybe
 thought a thing or two about how to explain AI to people. Yeah. Yeah. That's a really good point.
 This book so far has been remarkably good at telling the story of the sort of the history,
 the recent history of some of the things that have happened. This I'm in the first third. He said
 there's book is in three thirds. The first third is essentially AI fairness and implications of AI
 on society that we're seeing right now. And that's been great. I mean, he's telling the stories
 really well. He's, he, he went out and talked to the frontline people who, whose names are associated
 with some of these ideas and it's been terrific. He says the second half of the book is on
 reinforcement learning. So maybe that'll be fun. And then the third half, third third is on the
 super intelligence alignment problem. And I, I suspect that that part will be less fun for me to
 read. Yeah. Yeah, it's, it's an interesting problem to talk about. I find it to be the most
 interesting, just like thinking about whether we live in a simulation or not as a, as a thought
 experiment to think about our own existence. So in the same way, talking about alignment problem
 with AGI is a good way to think similar to like the trolley problem with autonomous vehicles.
 It's a useless thing for engineering, but it's a, it's a nice little thought experiment for
 actually thinking about what are like our own human ethical systems, our moral systems to, to, to,
 by thinking how we engineered these things, you start to understand yourself.
 So sci-fi can be good at that too. So one sci-fi book to recommend is Exhalations by Ted Chiang,
 a bunch of short stories. This Ted Chiang is the guy who wrote the short story that became the
 movie Arrival. And all of his stories just from a, he was a computer scientist, actually he studied
 at Brown. They all have this sort of really insightful bit of science or computer science
 that drives them. And so it's just a romp, right? To just like, he creates these artificial worlds
 with these, by extrapolating on these ideas that, that we know about, but hadn't really thought
 through to this kind of conclusion. And so his stuff is, it's really fun to read. It's mind-warping.
 So I'm not sure if you're familiar. I seem to mention this every other word,
 is I'm from the Soviet Union and I'm Russian. I read way too much Dostoyevsky.
 My roots are Russian too, but a couple of generations back.
 Well, it's probably in there somewhere. So maybe we can, we can pull at that thread a little bit
 of the existential dread that we all feel. You mentioned that you, I think somewhere in the
 conversation, you mentioned that you don't really pretty much like dying. I forget in which context
 it might've been a reinforcement learning perspective. I don't know. I know, you know what
 it was? It was in teaching my kids to drive. That's how you face your mortality. Yes. From
 a human being's perspective or from a reinforcement learning researcher's perspective, let me ask you
 the most absurd question. What's, what do you think is the meaning of this whole thing?
 What's the meaning of life on this spinning rock?
 I mean, I think reinforcement learning researchers maybe think about this from a science
 perspective more often than a lot of other people, right? As a supervised learning person,
 you're probably not thinking about the sweep of a lifetime, but reinforcement learning agents are
 having little lifetimes, little weird little lifetimes. And it's, it's hard not to project
 yourself into their world sometimes. But you know, as far as the meaning of life, so I, when I turned
 42, you may know from, that's a, that is a book I read, the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy,
 that that is the meaning of life. So when I turned 42, I had a meaning of life party
 where I invited people over and everyone shared their meaning of life. We, they, we, they, we had
 slides made up. And so we had, we all sat down and did a slide presentation to each other about the
 meaning of life. And mine, mine was balance. I think that life is balance. And so the activity
 at the party for 42 year old, maybe this is a little bit non-standard, but I, I found all the
 little toys and devices that I had that where you had to balance on them. You had to like stand on
 it and balance or a pogo stick I brought, a rip stick, which is like a weird two-wheeled skateboard.
 I got a unicycle, but I didn't know how to do it. I now can do it.
 I love watching you try.
 Yeah, I'll send you a video. I'm not great, but I, but, but, but I managed. And so, so balanced.
 Yeah. So, so my, my wife has a really good one that she sticks to and is probably pretty accurate.
 And it has to do with healthy relationships with people that you love and working hard for good
 causes. But to me, yeah, balance balance in a word. That's that, that works for me, not too much of
 anything. Cause too much of anything is iffy. That feels like a Rolling Stones song. I feel
 like they must be. You can't always get what you want, but if you try sometimes you can strike a
 balance. Yeah, I think that's how it goes. Michael, I'll write your parody. It's a huge honor to talk
 to you. This is really a big fan of yours. So, can't, can't wait to see what you do next in the
 world of education, the world of parody and the world of reinforcement learning. Thanks for talking
 to me. My pleasure. Thank you for listening to this conversation with Michael Littman and thank you
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 hope to see you next time.