Fred and George are playing a game. Here are the rules:  1. There are $15$ oranges placed on the table.  2. They each take turns removing oranges. In each turn, the player must remove $1$, $2$, or $3$ oranges.  3. The player who removes the last orange wins the game.  If Fred goes first, how many oranges should he take in the first turn so that he can make sure he will win the game? 
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