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بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم in the last meeting we
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talked about the active or passive managers or
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managements the main difference between active and
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passive **in** regard to what extent the market is
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efficient يعني الفرق بين الـ active و الـ
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passive لأي درجة الـ market is efficient لأي
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درجة السوق المالي كفوء طبعا فالـ active
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managers think that the market is not efficient
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however the passive managers think the market is
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efficient يعني المدراء اللي بيعملوا دائما تغيير في
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الـ portfolios تبعتهم بيعتقدوا الـ market ليس كفوء
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لكن الـ managers المدراء اللي
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هم ما بيغيروا بالـ portfolios تبعتهم و passive
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بيكونوا سلبيين لتغيرات السوق بيعتقدوا أن الـ market
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is efficient and we don't need to rebalance
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our portfolios or to follow up the information
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وما بيزامش كثير أن احنا نـ نتابع
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المعلومات market efficiency and portfolio
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management let's consider the relationship between
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the market efficiency and the portfolio management
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حكينا portfolio management اللي هو إدارة المحفظة
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يمكن مش واضحة عندكم what it means portfolio خلينا
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نفترض فرضية بسيطة لو كان أنا معايا 1000$ ألف دولار
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I have two options to invest all of them in one
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stock or one security إنه أنا أستثمرهم كلهم في one
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security in one single stock يعني أستثمر كل الـ one
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thousand dollar في سهم واحد the problem of this is
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not considering the importance of risk يعني لو
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كانت a ارتفعت is fine but when a is going down this
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investor will lose his or her all money يعني الـ
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investor هيخسر كل فلوسه but if we invest this is if
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we invest in one single security إذا احنا بنستثمر
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في سهم واحد but in the portfolio management لكن
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الإدارة الاستثمارية built on the notion مبنية على
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فكرة that don't put your eggs on one basket يعني
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مانحطش البيض كله تبعنا في سلة واحدة so we can
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invest on a portfolio this portfolio includes C, B,
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A, X, Y for instance if A is going down maybe X is
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going up, C is going up, Y going up and maybe B is
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going down so it means yes so it's like is good for
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managing the risk إذا كويسة بتكون في managing the
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risk so this is the importance of the portfolio
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the portfolio the main importance of the portfolio
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is to increase the interest rate increase the rate of
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return and decrease the risk يعني الهدف في النهاية
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تبع الـ portfolio المحفظة أن احنا نزيد العائد و
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نقلل المخاطر and in the chapter five and six we
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will see how we can manage this في chapter خمسة و
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ستة هنشوف كيف أنه احنا هنعمل managing للـ portfolio
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okay so the thing is the link between the market
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efficiency and portfolio management enable the
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investor to diversify their securities بيقدروا
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ينوعوا فاحنا في الـ portfolios احنا في عندنا C في
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عندنا D في عندنا A في عندنا X و عندنا Y لأنه الـ
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market is efficient and we know the rate of return
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of C, we know the risk, we know the rate of return
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of Y, we know the risk, we know everything so this
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enable us to do diversification diversification it
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means تنويع بنقدر احنا ننوع not only the
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diversification on the securities on the stocks مش
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بس أن احنا بنقدر نعمل تنويع بالـ stocks بالأسهم
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ممكن we can create another portfolio ممكن أن احنا
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نعمل portfolio أخرى includes stocks for instance A
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,B,R stocks we can include the treasury bills we
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can include bonds يعني ممكن احنا كمان ننوع بأنواع
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الـ securities نعمل diversification نعمل تنويع حسب
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نوع الـ securities ممكن احنا نحط أسهم و نحط سندات و
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نحط treasure bins و سندات خزينة we can also build
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another portfolio based on the geographic areas
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حسب التنويع الجغرافي for instance united states
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stocks ممكن نحط أسهم بتاعي على الـ united states UK
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stocks Asian, Asians stock أسهم آسيوية for instance
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نحط مثلا من Tokyo، من Japan، من دبي، من قطر، the
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king سعودي we can include other areas in our
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portfolios ممكن احنا نوّع المحفظة الاستثمارية ممكن
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ناخد أسهم من الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية أسهم من
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الأوروبـا أسهم من الـ UK أسهم من السعودية من دبي من
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قطر من Tokyo من ماليزيا فهي بيسموها تنويع جغرافي
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okay هذه هي الـ hypothesis التسريحية التي تساعدنا في
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تدفع ميزاتنا باستخدام الأمن باستخدام المناطق
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الجغرافية باستخدام رغبات الأمن على سبيل المثال
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نستطيع إنشاء ميزاتنا باستخدام على سبيل المثال
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أصول رخية و أصول خفية يعني ممكن احنا نعمل
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portfolio جزء منها assets فيها مخاطر و assets
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مافيهاش فيها مخاطر okay فزي ما أنتو شايفين الـ
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investors are free to form up their portfolios أن
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المستثمرين هم أحرار في يكونوا الـ portfolios تبعتهم
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ممكن يعملوا جغرافية تنمية جغرافية ممكن they can
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also diversify their portfolios based on the
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industrial level ممكن حسب الـ industrial level ممكن
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هم يستثمروا مثلا في الـ agriculture في الزراعة ممكن
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في الـ tourist السياحة ممكن يستثمروا في الـ industry
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الصناعة ممكن في الـ telecommunication okay so they
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don't need to to channel their funds to a
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particular industry يعني مابيحتاجوش أن فقط يروحوا
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يستثمروا only in the telecommunication because if
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they invest in only the telecommunication it means
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they only taking the risk of the telecommunication
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and if the telecommunication is going down all of
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their portfolios is going down so they need to
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diversify their portfolios based on the industrial
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level فعشان هيك هم محتاجين كمان يعملوا تنويع في
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المحفظة حسب الـ industrial level يعني بيستثمروا في
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العقارات في الـ real estates ممكن يستثمروا في الـ
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currencies، في العملات، ممكن يستثمروا في السياحة،
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يستثمروا في الصناعة، في الـ telecommunication، في
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.. في كل هذه يكونوا محافظ استثمارية، فإذا كانت الـ
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telecommunication is going down ممكن يكون في other
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areas is going up، يعني areas أخرى بتطلع .. تطلع،
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فهذه بدأت أخد بعين الأعتبار، إذا هذه some examples
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on how investors forming up their
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portfolios كيف هم بيكونوا المحفظة الاستثمارية
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بناء على شو هم بدهم Okay ف the efficient markets
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helping them to forming a good diversified
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portfolio لتساعدهم بأنهم يحصلوا على تنويع ممتاز من
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المحفظة الاستثمارية and as I said the main
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objective of doing this is to reduce the risk يعني
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الهدف أن احنا نخفض المخاطر اللي بتتحملها الـ
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investors The second most important thing is
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appropriate risk level if we look at the
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portfolios the investors they try to assign which
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risk they can apply
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يعني بيقدروا من خلال الـ portfolio يقولوا احنا بدنا
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مخاطر X فبيقدروا يعملوا الـ portfolios تبعتهم
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according to the X risk يعني بتوفر لهم ال
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portfolio management إنه بالظبط يقدروا يكونوا
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محافظ استثمارية with unknown risk يعني بيقدروا
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يعملوا محافظ استثمارية معروفة المخاطر Okay فالأسواق
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المالية بتساعدهم على الكلام هذا and they use
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advanced calculations بيستخدموا الـ advanced
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calculations to do this يعني رياضيات متقدمة عشان
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يحصلوا على الـ appropriate risk يعني مثلا خليني
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أعطيكم مثال لو أجاني investors شوفوا كيف مثلا
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خليني .. لو أجاني أنا channel investors from
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different origins يعني مستثمرين من من مختلف الـ
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origins المصادر okay مثلا عندنا I one investor one
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I two investor two I three I four I five till I
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end for instance I one is old old man لو كان الـ I
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one investor number one is old man رجل كبير and I
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two is old lady I five for instance is young with
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a secure job okay
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and I four is young lady with a secure job as well
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so let's see how we can reflect appropriate level
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of risk according to the characteristics of the
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investors يعني خليني أشوف كيف احنا ممكن نعمل محفظة
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استثمارية حسب المخاطر بتاعة الـ investors okay طيب
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هلأ لو نيجي احنا نيجي handle الـ old men and old
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ladies هدول بتحمل المخاطر؟شو رأيكم؟ زلمة كبيرة و
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ستة كبيرة يعني retired people يعني خلينا نحكي هنا
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number .. I3 retired lady يعني ستة تقاعدت يعني
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كانت تشتغل و صار عندها تقاعد شو رأيكم؟الـ old man و
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الـ old lady و الـ retired lady هدول بتحملوش مخاطر
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فإحنا إيش بنعملهم محفظة ناخدهم هدول مع بعض و
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بنعملهم محفظة with lower risk بنعملهم محفظ
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استثماري with lower risk طب إيش بنستثمرهم؟ إيش الـ
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investment اللي فيه lower risk؟الـ treasury bills،
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مظبوط، فيه lower risk، إيش فيه كمان؟ الـ bonds،
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فيها lower risk، إيش كمان؟ عقد ثابت، إيش رأيكم؟ الـ
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derivatives، نحطولهم في الـ derivatives؟ نستثمرهم
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في الـ derivatives؟ no, لأن الـ derivatives ..high
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risk طيب وش كمان ممكن نعطيهم real estate عقارات
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استثمروا بالعقارات so this is the thing so we
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forming up this portfolio by using for instance
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treasury bills which is risk free maybe treasury
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bonds and real estate this is the example okay
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let's consider the I4 and I5 I5 young man and
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young lady with a secure job صغار و عندهم شغلهم
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okay so they can bear more risk so they can bear
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more risk يعني ممكن يتحملوا or they hold they may
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hold more risk فممكن يتحملوا مخاطر أعلى so وين
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ممكن يستثمروا ممكن في الـ stocks يستثمروا بالـ
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stocks ممكن بالـ currencies ممكن يستثمروا ممكن في
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الـ derivatives okay that's it يعني شفنا احنا how
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we reflect this إذن حسب the characteristics of the
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investors so we can forming up the appropriate
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portfolio with appropriate risk يعني ممكن إحنا
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ننشأ محافظة استثمارية حسب الـ investors اللي سبعونا
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وحسب المخاطر اللي هم ممكن يتحملوها okay so this is
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the appropriate risk level the last one is tax
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considerations tax tax consideration okay let's
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focus on the importance of tax considerations
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خلّيني أركز على الـ tax considerations يعني
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الاعتبارات الضريبية طيب
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خلّيني أخد مثال احنا عندنا stock A stock A بيوزع
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dividends، الـ stock A نفسه ممكن
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ما يدفع dividends، no dividends، نشوف what is the
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difference when the stock A paying dividends and
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when the stock A paying no dividends يعني إيش
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الفرق بإنه الشركة تدفع أرباح .. تدفع توزيعات أرباح
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و ما تدفعش؟the dividends when the investors
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receiving the dividends they have to pay tax لازم
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يدفعوا ضريبة and this tax is maybe 25% هبتصل this
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tax in the united states this the tax income is up
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to 25% and in the UK as well يعني في الولايات
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المتحدة الأمريكية و الـ .. و الـ .. و الـ UK بتصل ل
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25% فاللي مثلا لو احنا we receive 10$ as a
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dividends we have to pay 2.5$ as a tax okay this
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is the .. this is the problem in the opposite if a
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being no dividends it means there is no tax طيب
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what is the alternative of not paying the
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dividends؟ شو البديل أنه احنا ماددفعش نوزعش أرباح؟
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فضل ازاي
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صح كلامك بس ازاي انا احكي لك لما احنا ماددفعش
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الأرباح انا محتجزة بيصير في 110 earnings أرباح
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محتجزة اه بتكون قصود احنا الأصل هو عبارة عن قيمة
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الفرق من القصود او قيمته بصير ايش؟بتزيد المكية
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بتزيد حصته بس هذا from the financial perspective
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this is from the corporate finance perspective هذا
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من غير نظر corporate finance but from the
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financial market perspective you are right but
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from the financial market perspective let's see
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what is going خلينا نشوف الـ A بتدفع dividends فهم
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بدفعوا taxation فالـ investors اللي بتثمروا في A و
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اللي بتدفع dividends فهيدفعوا 25% taxation if a
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decided not paying any dividends إذا هم قرروا
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مايدفعوش dividends خلينا نشوف لو أنتوا شفتوا الـ
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assets و الـ liabilities مظبوط؟فلما أنا ب .. بعمل
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no dividends فبعمل احتجاز للأرباح فبتروحها تحت الـ
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capital as she said تحت الـ capital بيصير في return
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earnings طيب let's ask you a question return
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earnings what is the importance of return earnings
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خلينا سؤال finance إيش أهمية الـ return earnings
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ليش .. ليش الشركات بتعمل investment is for
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expansion expansion يعني توسع صح ولا لأ Okay فالان
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لما الشركات بتروح بتعمل keeping the profit it
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means return earnings it means in the future they
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may invest this money في المستقبل هم هيتستثمروا
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الأموال because they keep this the price of the
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stocks is going up لما الشركات تحتجز الأرباح
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فالمستثمرين مقتنعين ان هاي الشركات لما تحتجز
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الأرباح هتعمل expansion ايش يعني expansion يعني
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توسع طب لأنه بده تعمل expansion فبصير الـ investors
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معنيين بالشركة هذه بتعرفوا أن الشركة هذه مثلا نيجي
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بالتل عاملة تحتجز أرباح و بتفكر أنه تروح تعمل مثلا
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a new investment فإيش اللي بيصير على الـ price إيش
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الـ price السعر؟ شو بيصير فيه؟ going up بصير ارتفاع
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طيب خليني عشان انا بتواصلكم فكرة معينة هلأ instead
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of paying dividends بدل ما احنا ندفع dividends we
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are keeping the profits مظبوط keeping the profits
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اللي هو بانجو سان نسميها returned earnings اللي هو
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احتجاز أربعة طيب هلأ حكينا 25% اللي ندفعه على الـ
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dividend tax لما نعمل keeping the profits مع
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الكلام we do expansion نعمل expansion توسع
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لما يعمل توسع الـ investors think that the income
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will increase لما الـ investors بيعرفوا أن الشركة
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هي هتعمل توسع الأربعة هتزيد صح ولا لأ؟because they
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think the income increase the price will going up
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السعر هيرتفع okay what this means from the
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financial market perspective هذا إيش معنى الكلام
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من وجهة نظر الـ financial perspective الـ financial
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perspective saying that it means R the return on a
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particular asset R of A this is from mathematical
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perspective من وجهة نظر المحاسبية financial
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mathematical perspective من وجهة نظر المالية
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المحاسبية RA اللي هو السهم A اللي احنا حكينا فيه
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بساوي D one D plus P one minus P not what it means
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العائد بتاع RA هيساوي ال dividends على زائد price one
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سعر البيع ناقص سعر الشراء معنى الكلام أنه احنا
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العائد تبع السهم بنحصله من مكانين من ال dividends
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و من ال capital gains هذا بيسموها capital gains
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ليش سميناها capital gains لأنه احنا اشترينا السهم
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على سعره لما صار في keeping the profit هنبيعه على
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سعر أعلى okay طب لنفترض احنا هنا حكينا ال tax high
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ال tax في حالة ال dividends is greater than the
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capital gains ال tax في حالة ال dividends is
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greater than the capital gains الحكومة الأمريكية و
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البريطانية و حتى اللي عندنا و ال local governments
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و الحكومات المحلية عندنا بتفرض ضرائب أعلى على ال
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dividends فبصير إنه الاهتمام بال capital gains أكثر
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من اهتمام بال dividends okay so the thing is some
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investors they prefer to take dividends but the
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problem is paying more tax بعض المستثمرين يفضلوا
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ال dividends لكن المشكلة إيش في ال dividends تدفع
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ضريبة عالية they have to do this يعني نرجع لمثالنا
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إذا كانت راجل كبير و ست كبيرة بيفضلوا ال dividends
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ما بيفضلوش إن الشركات تروح تترسم للأربعة واحدة
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بعدها بفضلوا كل شهرين تلاتة يجي لهم dividends لكن
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المشكلة هذه they have to pay high tax لكن بواجهوا
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مشكلة إنه بدفعوا ضريبة عالية
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people they prefer the capital gains they don't
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consider the risk ما يهتموش بالضريبة they want to
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avoid the high tax الناس اللي بيفضلوا الأرباح
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المحتجزة طبعا في الحالة هذه هيتجنبوا دفع ضرائب
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عالية فاحنا أمام two synergies the tax on the
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dividends is higher than the capital gains الأرباح
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الرأس مالية so some investors prefer the dividends
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however it pay high tax other investors prefer the
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capital gains and paying no tax طب التنين
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بيه مشكلة على فكرة التنين إيه إيش بيه مشكلة مشكلة
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هذا معروفة أنه بي .. أنه الضرائب طب مشكلة هذا وين؟
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time yes right the time إيش risk لأنه there is no
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guarantee the price will go up فش ضمان الأسعار
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ترتفع لفوق صحيح they are keeping the profits is
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right they are keeping the profits but it is not
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guaranteed the prices will go up يعني زي مثلا مثال
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بنقول الحج والحجة اللي هو old man old man old lady
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they consider one bird in your hand is more
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preferable than ten birds on the tree يعني عصفور
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بيدك أحسن من عشر على الشجرة ده ال thing in this way
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بقى young people الناس الصغار في السن اللي زيكو
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طبعا they have difference بيقولوا لأ why I don't
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need money for instance now so خلي العشر على الشجرة
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أحسن ما يكونوا في one bird in my hand because ten
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birds on the tree .. ten birds on the tree إيش بيصير? ten
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birds on the trees may call other bears to be in
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the tree but if the bird is in your hands, no
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additional birds will be in your hands يعني لما
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تخلوا العشر على الشجرة, they calling more birds
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هيستدعوا طيور أكثر تيجي على الشجرة لكن لما يكون
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الطير بيدك في حد هييجي و that's it يعني
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الفكرة هنا أنه ال capital gains is higher risk
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than the dividends, the dividends is guaranteed,
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there is a dividends, but the problem in the
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dividends, there is high tax okay, so the
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portfolios, the portfolio management is helping us
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to state whether we prefer the tax or we avoid the
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tax, some people or some investors are between the
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two scenarios بعض الناس بال two scenarios ممكن
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بياخدوا ال portfolios تبعتهم stocks بتعمل
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dividends و stocks ما بتعملش dividends يعني بياخدوا أسهم
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بتعمل dividends و أسهم ما بتعملش dividends هدول
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بيكونوا إيش يعني متوسط المخاطر تمام؟ okay يعني لو
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احنا قررنا مثلا ladies بال in her 35 to 40 ست كانت
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من 35 لل40 مع راجل من 35 لل40 طبعا ال ladies عادة
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بيكونوا يتحملوا المخاطر أقل فهم ممكن يختاروا
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dividends مع capital gains ال mens تحملهم للمخاطر
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أعلى شوية فممكن ان هم to go to the capital gains
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إنهم يروحوا لل capital gains more than the
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dividends okay هذا المثال ممكن احنا نعطيه طبعا هذا
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ما يعني ان ال ladies they took whole dress لأ في
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ناس ممكن يتحملوا بس احنا بنحكي in majority in the
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majority اه بال majority يعني ان هم جداش بتحملوا
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المخاطر ممكن رجال كمان conservative كونوا طبعا
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احنا بنحكي بشكل عام إيش بيصير بالأسواق المالية
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okay
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طيب أي سؤال any question about the free
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diversification appropriate risk level, tax
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considerations؟ no questions؟ أه؟ في حد عنده سؤال؟
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okay طيب resource allocations توزيع الموارد أو
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تخصيص الموارد
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طيب ال market .. we still talking about the
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implications of market efficiency احنا مازلنا
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بنحكي عن أثر ال market efficiency on portfolio
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management على إدارة المحفظة الاستثمارية if you
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think the market is inefficient we cannot
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efficiently allocate our resources يعني إذا احنا
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بنعتقد أن السوق غير كفوء بيكون احنا من الصعوبة إن
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احنا نعمل تخصيص الموارد تبعتنا because the market
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is inefficient فبصير في miss pricing فبتكون الأسهم
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الغالية هتكون رخيصة و الأسهم الرخيصة هتكون غالية
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that's it يعني if the market is inefficient okay
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فإذا كان السوق المالي كفوء يعني لو أجينا احنا مثلا
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على ال mobile إذا كان السوق المالي كفوء هذا سعره
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مثلا مائة دولار so the price is مائة دولار one
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hundred dollar if the market is inefficient this
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could be overpriced or could be underpriced ممكن
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يكون أقل من سعره ممكن يكون أعلى من سعره يعني if
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this one hundred dollar it could be one hundred
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fifty if the market is inefficient and in this
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case it is overpriced if it is fifty dollar it
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means it is under priced and this is misleading if
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the market is inefficient buying and selling these
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mobile phones is misleading يعني ممكن تعمل
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misleading يعني إيش misleading إنه ما يستطيعوش
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ال investors to take the right decision okay
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ف the implications of .. if markets were
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inefficient إذا كان الأسواق ليست كفؤة resources
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would be systematically misallocated هنروح نعمل
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misallocation لل .. نروح .. نروح نستثمر في أشياء
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غالية هي المفروض تكون رخيصة و أشياء رخيصة المفروض
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تكون غالية so this is the things misallocation or
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misleading as .. as I explained fame with
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overvalued securities can raise capital too
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cheaply يعني الشركات اللي أسعارها مغالا فيها ممكن
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تحصل على تمويل رخيص و العكس شركات undervalued أقل
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من قيمتها الحقيقية may have to pass up profitable
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opportunities because the cost of capital is too high
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ممكن أنه ما تحصلش على تمويل لأنه the cost of capital
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تكلفة رأس المال بتكون عالية جدا okay so this is
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important for resource allocation if the market is
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efficient we can effectively allocate our
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resources but the problem efficient market does
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not mean perfect for sides markets ما بتعنيش كل شيء
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تمام 100% هأعطيكم مثال يعني لا يعني أنه if the
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market is efficient it means we have a proper
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asset allocation ده يعني أنه السوق المالي كافٍ أنه
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في عندنا توزيع صحيح for instance لو أنا جبت لكم car
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2013 and we have two people سيارة 2013 efficient
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خدنا نقول مثلاً لموزعين وجئنا the two people we have
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a good driver and we have a bad driver and we said
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to the bad driver take the keys and try it يعني
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خذها المفاتيح وروح جربها maybe after one minute
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come back with a smashed car ممكن بعد دقيقة يرجع لنا
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والسيارة مكسرة and we may talk to the second
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driver which is an excellent driver with a good
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profile he can use it and get it back with
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excellent condition لذا لدينا اتفاقين اثنين،
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المشكلة في الناس وكيف يستخدموا المصادر، السيارة
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مفيدة، كل شيء بخير، لكن المشكلة في الناس وكيف
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يستخدموا المصادر you have good experience with a
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good knowledge with the .. with the .. with a good
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profile you can efficiently and effectively manage
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the portfolios if you don't have this knowledge it
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means you cannot do this هذه المشكلة efficient
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market does not mean perfect foresight markets
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because it depends on how people foresight how
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they understand the portfolios يعني لو احنا جبنا
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اللاب توب هذا وحكينا للناس خذوا صمموه لشغلات على
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اللاب توب ممكن ناس بيعرفوه وناس ما بيعرفوش so it
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depends يعني ما تفكروا أن والله احنا خدنا
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portfolio management and investments and we can do
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this so you should have skills to do the .. the
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management .. the portfolio management okay نحكي
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عن event studies اللقاء القادم بيكون نقف عند ال
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event studies اللقاء القادم is the last meeting
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talking about the chapter four
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