| 1 | |
| 00:00:21,090 --> 00:00:25,350 | |
| بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم ال .. في ال previous | |
| 2 | |
| 00:00:25,350 --> 00:00:30,310 | |
| meeting .. في ال previous meeting في اللقاءات | |
| 3 | |
| 00:00:30,310 --> 00:00:36,330 | |
| الماضية كنا نحكي عن ال interest rates و ال | |
| 4 | |
| 00:00:36,330 --> 00:00:41,910 | |
| effective rate of return و حكينا على الموضوع إن | |
| 5 | |
| 00:00:41,910 --> 00:00:44,770 | |
| إذا كنا احنا بنحكي .. نحسب ال effective annual | |
| 6 | |
| 00:00:44,770 --> 00:00:49,430 | |
| returnif it is less than one year اذا أقل من سنة | |
| 7 | |
| 00:00:49,430 --> 00:00:52,390 | |
| we can use this calculation or this equation and | |
| 8 | |
| 00:00:52,390 --> 00:00:55,130 | |
| if it is greater than one year so we can use this | |
| 9 | |
| 00:00:55,130 --> 00:01:00,230 | |
| onethis is the idea of the interest rate of return | |
| 10 | |
| 00:01:00,230 --> 00:01:04,650 | |
| so the most important thing is coming in the | |
| 11 | |
| 00:01:04,650 --> 00:01:08,330 | |
| further stages الشغلات الأهم من هي هي جاية في | |
| 12 | |
| 00:01:08,330 --> 00:01:12,050 | |
| الصفحات الجاية اللي هنعمل عليها تطبيق يعني هذا مش | |
| 13 | |
| 00:01:12,050 --> 00:01:15,470 | |
| كتير انه احنا بس introduction لكم هنطبق في | |
| 14 | |
| 00:01:15,470 --> 00:01:20,070 | |
| اللقاءات الجاية how we can use the interest rate | |
| 15 | |
| 00:01:20,070 --> 00:01:22,190 | |
| of return كيف ممكن نستخدم ال interest rate of | |
| 16 | |
| 00:01:22,190 --> 00:01:28,510 | |
| return if you look carefully at this tableنتطلع ال | |
| 17 | |
| 00:01:28,510 --> 00:01:30,650 | |
| relationship between treasury bills and the | |
| 18 | |
| 00:01:30,650 --> 00:01:33,630 | |
| inflation العلاقة بين ال treasury bills و بين ال | |
| 19 | |
| 00:01:33,630 --> 00:01:39,530 | |
| inflation and this is a very important | |
| 20 | |
| 00:01:39,530 --> 00:01:41,990 | |
| relationship between inflation and the treasury | |
| 21 | |
| 00:01:41,990 --> 00:01:45,650 | |
| bills rate of return يعني كتير مهم أنحن نعرف | |
| 22 | |
| 00:01:45,650 --> 00:01:52,120 | |
| العلاقة بين التدخمو بين العقد التدخم وبين العقد | |
| 23 | |
| 00:01:52,120 --> 00:02:00,360 | |
| اللي هو ال interest rate و ال inflation طيب لو | |
| 24 | |
| 00:02:00,360 --> 00:02:06,120 | |
| احنا طلعنا على ال treasury bills in 1926 it is 3 | |
| 25 | |
| 00:02:06,120 --> 00:02:13,260 | |
| .71 okay the real treasury bills is 0.70 the | |
| 26 | |
| 00:02:13,260 --> 00:02:20,000 | |
| inflation is 3.10 just focus onعن هذا، لذلك، | |
| 27 | |
| 00:02:20,000 --> 00:02:25,200 | |
| عمليات التحذير الواحدة من 10 هي 3.70 والتحذير 3 | |
| 28 | |
| 00:02:25,200 --> 00:02:37,020 | |
| .10، فماذا تفهمين من هذا؟ هذا يعني أنه عندما | |
| 29 | |
| 00:02:37,020 --> 00:02:41,360 | |
| تزداد التحذير، انظر إلى التحذير عندما تزداد | |
| 30 | |
| 00:02:41,360 --> 00:02:48,500 | |
| التحذير، تتقل عمليات التحذير الحقيقةand this is | |
| 31 | |
| 00:02:48,500 --> 00:02:54,420 | |
| what we yes this is what we said in before three | |
| 32 | |
| 00:02:54,420 --> 00:03:00,700 | |
| meetings حكينا ان ال R small r is equal R minus I | |
| 33 | |
| 00:03:00,700 --> 00:03:09,800 | |
| ال I when I increase R decrease كل ما ال I بتزيد | |
| 34 | |
| 00:03:09,800 --> 00:03:14,280 | |
| ال inflation بتزيد كل ما ال R small r decrease طيب | |
| 35 | |
| 00:03:15,630 --> 00:03:20,110 | |
| look at treasury bills and inflation if you look | |
| 36 | |
| 00:03:20,110 --> 00:03:26,190 | |
| at the chart اذا احنا طلعنا عن ال chart if you | |
| 37 | |
| 00:03:26,190 --> 00:03:30,690 | |
| look at this chart this | |
| 38 | |
| 00:03:30,690 --> 00:03:34,910 | |
| is .. هي is the treasury bills هذا هو ال treasury | |
| 39 | |
| 00:03:34,910 --> 00:03:44,340 | |
| bills and this is R of treasury billsإذا قررنا أن | |
| 40 | |
| 00:03:44,340 --> 00:03:52,440 | |
| هذا 3.7 في جميعهم، فهذا 3.71 في جميعهم، فهذا 3.71 | |
| 41 | |
| 00:03:52,440 --> 00:03:53,100 | |
| في جميعهم، فهذا 3.71 في جميعهم، فهذا 3.71 في | |
| 42 | |
| 00:03:53,100 --> 00:03:53,320 | |
| جميعهم، فهذا 3.71 في جميعهم، فهذا 3.71 في جميعهم، | |
| 43 | |
| 00:03:53,320 --> 00:03:53,320 | |
| فهذا 3.71 في جميعهم، فهذا 3.71 في جميعهم، فهذا 3 | |
| 44 | |
| 00:03:53,320 --> 00:03:53,320 | |
| .71 في جميعهم، فهذا 3.71 في جميعهم، فهذا 3.71 في | |
| 45 | |
| 00:03:53,320 --> 00:03:55,680 | |
| جميعهم، فهذا 3.71 في جميعهم، فهذا 3.10 في جميعهم، | |
| 46 | |
| 00:03:55,680 --> 00:04:00,480 | |
| فهذا 3.10 في جميعهم، فهذا 3.10 في جميعهم، فهذا 3 | |
| 47 | |
| 00:04:00,480 --> 00:04:06,780 | |
| .10 في جميعهم، فهذا 3.10 في جميعهم، | |
| 48 | |
| 00:04:06,780 --> 00:04:06,820 | |
| فهذا | |
| 49 | |
| 00:04:15,150 --> 00:04:23,350 | |
| .70 sorry okay approximately look | |
| 50 | |
| 00:04:23,350 --> 00:04:28,510 | |
| at here if we look carefully at this خليني بس | |
| 51 | |
| 00:04:28,510 --> 00:04:31,490 | |
| أعالكم zooming out أكبر الصورة عشان ت understand | |
| 52 | |
| 00:04:31,490 --> 00:04:31,890 | |
| this | |
| 53 | |
| 00:04:38,520 --> 00:04:41,180 | |
| this is a very very important if you don't | |
| 54 | |
| 00:04:41,180 --> 00:04:44,300 | |
| understand this it means you will challenge | |
| 55 | |
| 00:04:44,300 --> 00:04:49,500 | |
| problems in the in the next three four pages اذا | |
| 56 | |
| 00:04:49,500 --> 00:04:52,260 | |
| مافهمتوش هذه العلاقة هتكون عندكم مشكلة في كمان | |
| 57 | |
| 00:04:52,260 --> 00:04:58,000 | |
| اربع خمس صفحات شوفوا هيك you | |
| 58 | |
| 00:04:58,000 --> 00:05:00,600 | |
| know this this is security market line هذا هو | |
| 59 | |
| 00:05:00,600 --> 00:05:05,580 | |
| security market line and this is treasury bills as | |
| 60 | |
| 00:05:05,580 --> 00:05:17,260 | |
| I said all of thisis R which is equal to 3.71 so | |
| 61 | |
| 00:05:17,260 --> 00:05:21,520 | |
| the nominal R is the nominal the nominal of the | |
| 62 | |
| 00:05:21,520 --> 00:05:26,080 | |
| treasury bills is 3.71 as in the table here 3.71 | |
| 63 | |
| 00:05:26,080 --> 00:05:36,240 | |
| the inflation rate is 3 is this area 3.10 | |
| 64 | |
| 00:05:38,530 --> 00:05:46,870 | |
| this is I so I is three point one so now according | |
| 65 | |
| 00:05:46,870 --> 00:05:52,170 | |
| to this chart حسب ال chart هان this is the real | |
| 66 | |
| 00:05:52,170 --> 00:05:58,270 | |
| rate of return R just apply this equation R small | |
| 67 | |
| 00:05:58,270 --> 00:06:04,990 | |
| R is equal big R minus I so this is big R all of | |
| 68 | |
| 00:06:04,990 --> 00:06:11,470 | |
| thisminus I so we get .. we end up with small r | |
| 69 | |
| 00:06:11,470 --> 00:06:17,190 | |
| okay so if you increase I look at this if you | |
| 70 | |
| 00:06:17,190 --> 00:06:22,830 | |
| increase I, R becomes smaller and smaller يعني كل | |
| 71 | |
| 00:06:22,830 --> 00:06:25,930 | |
| ما احنا بنزود ال I، ال I بتصير smaller and smaller | |
| 72 | |
| 00:06:27,300 --> 00:06:31,680 | |
| بتصير ال small r the real rate of return becomes | |
| 73 | |
| 00:06:31,680 --> 00:06:35,900 | |
| smaller and smaller يعني بتبدأ تنخفض ال real rate | |
| 74 | |
| 00:06:35,900 --> 00:06:39,400 | |
| of return what | |
| 75 | |
| 00:06:39,400 --> 00:06:42,560 | |
| you observe then what we observe we observe many | |
| 76 | |
| 00:06:42,560 --> 00:06:46,420 | |
| things ايش احنا بنلاحظ؟ بنلاحظ كتير أشياء ال first | |
| 77 | |
| 00:06:46,420 --> 00:06:50,180 | |
| one we have a negative relationship between small | |
| 78 | |
| 00:06:50,180 --> 00:06:56,300 | |
| r and Ias I become bigger and bigger, R becomes | |
| 79 | |
| 00:06:56,300 --> 00:07:00,780 | |
| smaller and smaller يعني كل ما ال I بتكبر ال R | |
| 80 | |
| 00:07:00,780 --> 00:07:04,600 | |
| بتبدأ تزال okay just from the chart point of view | |
| 81 | |
| 00:07:04,600 --> 00:07:08,140 | |
| من وجهة نظر ال chart we know this from the | |
| 82 | |
| 00:07:08,140 --> 00:07:12,300 | |
| equation point of view يعني احنا فاهمين الكلام هذا | |
| 83 | |
| 00:07:12,300 --> 00:07:16,740 | |
| من وجهة نظر ال equation as the equation saying and | |
| 84 | |
| 00:07:16,740 --> 00:07:17,260 | |
| this is | |
| 85 | |
| 00:07:21,280 --> 00:07:24,880 | |
| this table is an accurate table and a real table | |
| 86 | |
| 00:07:24,880 --> 00:07:28,820 | |
| from the united states هذا هو table صحيح من ال | |
| 87 | |
| 00:07:28,820 --> 00:07:30,940 | |
| united states from nineteen twenty six to two | |
| 88 | |
| 00:07:30,940 --> 00:07:33,480 | |
| thousand and nine يعني هذا من سنة الف وتسعمائة | |
| 89 | |
| 00:07:33,480 --> 00:07:36,300 | |
| وتسعت وعشرين لسنة الف وتسعمائة لسنة الفين وتسعة | |
| 90 | |
| 00:07:36,300 --> 00:07:42,140 | |
| هذا ال table صحيح okay so the the real treasury | |
| 91 | |
| 00:07:42,140 --> 00:07:46,620 | |
| bills is point seventy so the the one observation | |
| 92 | |
| 00:07:46,620 --> 00:07:52,950 | |
| is as as i explainedthe one observation is when I | |
| 93 | |
| 00:07:52,950 --> 00:07:57,050 | |
| become bigger and bigger R become smaller and | |
| 94 | |
| 00:07:57,050 --> 00:08:03,270 | |
| smaller يعني كل ما بتكبر ال I كل ما ال R real كل | |
| 95 | |
| 00:08:03,270 --> 00:08:09,010 | |
| ما كانت decrease other factors are equal other | |
| 96 | |
| 00:08:09,010 --> 00:08:12,310 | |
| factors and equal معسبات العوامل أخرى other | |
| 97 | |
| 00:08:12,310 --> 00:08:18,720 | |
| factors are equal okay nowif you compare between | |
| 98 | |
| 00:08:18,720 --> 00:08:25,080 | |
| the 1968 with 1968, | |
| 99 | |
| 00:08:25,220 --> 00:08:33,420 | |
| 2009 and 1926, 1967 اتصلح وانشوف احنا بال .. لو | |
| 100 | |
| 00:08:33,420 --> 00:08:39,920 | |
| قررنا ال 1968 ل 2009 مع ال 1926 ل 1967 what you | |
| 101 | |
| 00:08:39,920 --> 00:08:45,560 | |
| observe the treasury billsis greater than .. the | |
| 102 | |
| 00:08:45,560 --> 00:08:50,020 | |
| real .. sorry .. the treasury bills is greater | |
| 103 | |
| 00:08:50,020 --> 00:08:53,700 | |
| than the R nominal of treasury bills in the recent | |
| 104 | |
| 00:08:53,700 --> 00:08:57,720 | |
| years is greater than in the .. in the early .. in | |
| 105 | |
| 00:08:57,720 --> 00:09:06,500 | |
| the .. in the previous years نتطلع في ال .. في | |
| 106 | |
| 00:09:06,500 --> 00:09:10,140 | |
| السابق كان عند ال .. في السابق كان عند ال .. ال | |
| 107 | |
| 00:09:10,140 --> 00:09:13,200 | |
| real .. sorry ال nominal rate of return one point | |
| 108 | |
| 00:09:13,200 --> 00:09:20,040 | |
| sixty sevenيعني من سنة ال 26 لل 67 كان عندى 1.67 | |
| 109 | |
| 00:09:20,040 --> 00:09:24,500 | |
| اللى هو ال nominal rate of return من سنة ال 68 ل | |
| 110 | |
| 00:09:24,500 --> 00:09:30,660 | |
| 2009 ال nominal rate of return زد you know why؟ في | |
| 111 | |
| 00:09:30,660 --> 00:09:35,340 | |
| حد بعرف ليش؟ from the chart from the table look at | |
| 112 | |
| 00:09:35,340 --> 00:09:40,980 | |
| the table how much the inflation increaseyou are | |
| 113 | |
| 00:09:40,980 --> 00:09:44,700 | |
| right الinflation هو السبب يعني انتوا لاحظوا انه | |
| 114 | |
| 00:09:44,700 --> 00:09:48,220 | |
| طلع انت just compare this with this انه كان five | |
| 115 | |
| 00:09:48,220 --> 00:09:52,320 | |
| point seventy five sorry في السنوات الأخيرة بعد | |
| 116 | |
| 00:09:52,320 --> 00:09:55,780 | |
| سبعة و تمانية و ستين ال nominal rate of return | |
| 117 | |
| 00:09:55,780 --> 00:10:01,060 | |
| five point seventy five في السبتة و عشرين و سبعة و | |
| 118 | |
| 00:10:01,060 --> 00:10:10,010 | |
| ستين قديما1.67 why؟ ليش .. سؤال .. سؤال مختصر ليش | |
| 119 | |
| 00:10:10,010 --> 00:10:12,970 | |
| ال nominal rate of return زاد في الفترات الأخيرة | |
| 120 | |
| 00:10:12,970 --> 00:10:17,410 | |
| فاطمة she said because of inflation look at this | |
| 121 | |
| 00:10:17,410 --> 00:10:21,790 | |
| the inflation because of the .. اه ال inflation | |
| 122 | |
| 00:10:21,790 --> 00:10:30,250 | |
| زاد فطبيعي بالظبط شايفين فعلاقة ترضية اذا هاي this | |
| 123 | |
| 00:10:30,250 --> 00:10:36,650 | |
| is the first the secondthe second relation is as | |
| 124 | |
| 00:10:36,650 --> 00:10:44,330 | |
| long as I increase as long as I increase sorry I | |
| 125 | |
| 00:10:44,330 --> 00:10:45,030 | |
| increase | |
| 126 | |
| 00:10:47,880 --> 00:10:52,200 | |
| when I is become grow .. become bigger and bigger | |
| 127 | |
| 00:10:52,200 --> 00:10:56,400 | |
| the big R become bigger and bigger so this is | |
| 128 | |
| 00:10:56,400 --> 00:10:59,160 | |
| positive relation between between the nominal rate | |
| 129 | |
| 00:10:59,160 --> 00:11:02,600 | |
| of return and I look at here this is the second لو | |
| 130 | |
| 00:11:02,600 --> 00:11:05,020 | |
| احنا طلعنا على الشغل التاني from the table look at | |
| 131 | |
| 00:11:05,020 --> 00:11:09,220 | |
| the table لاحظنا ال inflation صغيرة شايفين شو ال | |
| 132 | |
| 00:11:09,220 --> 00:11:12,420 | |
| nominal rate of return صغير صار لاحظنا ال | |
| 133 | |
| 00:11:12,420 --> 00:11:15,920 | |
| inflation زادت ال nominal rate of return شو صار | |
| 134 | |
| 00:11:15,920 --> 00:11:17,120 | |
| فيه decrease | |
| 135 | |
| 00:11:20,660 --> 00:11:24,800 | |
| Okay يعني هاي .. هاي سبب .. يعني هاي ملاحظة تانية | |
| 136 | |
| 00:11:24,800 --> 00:11:27,460 | |
| .. the second observation هاي observation تانية | |
| 137 | |
| 00:11:27,460 --> 00:11:36,040 | |
| احنا بنلاحظها لو بدنا .. okay ال real لما بيقل شو | |
| 138 | |
| 00:11:36,040 --> 00:11:44,500 | |
| سبب انه بيقل؟ مناشر ال real | |
| 139 | |
| 00:11:44,500 --> 00:11:50,430 | |
| .. ال real بيقل okay هاي ال realبدي أقل متى بيقل | |
| 140 | |
| 00:11:50,430 --> 00:11:56,270 | |
| ال real بيقل عشان ال inflation بتزيد يعني | |
| 141 | |
| 00:11:56,270 --> 00:11:59,550 | |
| ال real هان is a function of خد بالك ال real is | |
| 142 | |
| 00:11:59,550 --> 00:12:05,350 | |
| independent مستقل عفوا عامل تابع لل is dependent | |
| 143 | |
| 00:12:05,350 --> 00:12:08,870 | |
| عامل تابع لل .. إذا ال inflation هو اللي بيعمل كل | |
| 144 | |
| 00:12:08,870 --> 00:12:16,510 | |
| المشكلة ال I هي عاملة كل المشكلة ليش؟ | |
| 145 | |
| 00:12:23,060 --> 00:12:29,720 | |
| المفروض يكون اقل يطلع ايش ال .. ال real هذا اه بس | |
| 146 | |
| 00:12:29,720 --> 00:12:32,780 | |
| خد بالك ان ال treasure bills زادت و ال inflation | |
| 147 | |
| 00:12:32,780 --> 00:12:36,660 | |
| زادت فالفرق بين اتهم خلى ال real يزيد كمان طبعا | |
| 148 | |
| 00:12:36,660 --> 00:12:42,620 | |
| الفرق يعني الفرق هذا نقص هذا بيخلى يزيد طيب هذا | |
| 149 | |
| 00:12:42,620 --> 00:12:47,460 | |
| لأنه التنين نازلين فبيخلى الفرق نازلهذا ال spread | |
| 150 | |
| 00:12:47,460 --> 00:12:51,340 | |
| بيسموه طيب | |
| 151 | |
| 00:12:51,340 --> 00:12:55,600 | |
| فى | |
| 152 | |
| 00:12:55,600 --> 00:13:01,800 | |
| حد عنده ملاحظات تانية طيب نتطلع على ال .. ستة و | |
| 153 | |
| 00:13:01,800 --> 00:13:09,160 | |
| عشرين اربعة و ستة عشر اتطلعوا | |
| 154 | |
| 00:13:09,160 --> 00:13:15,240 | |
| على ال charts اكتر inflation ال risk اتطلعوا نتطلع | |
| 155 | |
| 00:13:15,240 --> 00:13:18,930 | |
| على ال riskهذا هو ال .. until هو average annual | |
| 156 | |
| 00:13:18,930 --> 00:13:22,310 | |
| return هذا الجانب هو return و هذا الجانب اسمه risk | |
| 157 | |
| 00:13:22,310 --> 00:13:24,770 | |
| لان هاي standard deviation of annual return | |
| 158 | |
| 00:13:24,770 --> 00:13:30,610 | |
| standard deviation of annual return نتطلع احنا على | |
| 159 | |
| 00:13:30,610 --> 00:13:37,710 | |
| ال risk بتاع ال inflation تدخم وين | |
| 160 | |
| 00:13:37,710 --> 00:13:44,190 | |
| كان اكتر فيه اكتر تدخم موجود من 26 ل 67 ليش طيب | |
| 161 | |
| 00:13:44,190 --> 00:13:50,940 | |
| تعرفوا حداشر why thisليش كان ال risk من سنة ال 26 | |
| 162 | |
| 00:13:50,940 --> 00:13:55,080 | |
| ل 67 أعلى risk؟ | |
| 163 | |
| 00:13:55,080 --> 00:14:04,760 | |
| في أهم من الحروب كانت في سنة 1929 شو كان لنا؟ big | |
| 164 | |
| 00:14:04,760 --> 00:14:07,400 | |
| recession because of the big recession the big | |
| 165 | |
| 00:14:07,400 --> 00:14:11,260 | |
| recession this is why the inflation rate is | |
| 166 | |
| 00:14:11,260 --> 00:14:14,580 | |
| greater than any other stages | |
| 167 | |
| 00:14:15,630 --> 00:14:20,010 | |
| because of the big recession الكساد الكبير في فترة | |
| 168 | |
| 00:14:20,010 --> 00:14:28,230 | |
| الكساد الكبير ودخلت اوروبا بحرب ضد الحلفة وطلعت | |
| 169 | |
| 00:14:28,230 --> 00:14:31,490 | |
| الحرب العالمية التانية فصار الكل يعمل يعمل سك عملة | |
| 170 | |
| 00:14:31,490 --> 00:14:37,370 | |
| بدون ما يكون مدعوم العملة من ال .. بالدهب وبالتالي | |
| 171 | |
| 00:14:37,370 --> 00:14:41,390 | |
| كان ال .. صار في inflation عالي كتير تضخم عالي | |
| 172 | |
| 00:14:41,390 --> 00:14:45,150 | |
| خلصنا أول ملاحظة تاني ملاحظة | |
| 173 | |
| 00:14:49,600 --> 00:14:55,460 | |
| الملاحظة التالتة اللى هنخرج فيها خلصنا أول ملاحظة | |
| 174 | |
| 00:14:55,460 --> 00:15:01,400 | |
| ناخد الملاحظة التالتة the third one the third one | |
| 175 | |
| 00:15:01,400 --> 00:15:05,120 | |
| if you look at this moderate inflation can offset | |
| 176 | |
| 00:15:05,120 --> 00:15:08,840 | |
| most of the nominal gains on low risk investments | |
| 177 | |
| 00:15:08,840 --> 00:15:16,170 | |
| ملاحظة تالتة انتبهوا للمكتوبها بال slidemoderate | |
| 178 | |
| 00:15:16,170 --> 00:15:19,850 | |
| inflation can offset most of the nominal gains on | |
| 179 | |
| 00:15:19,850 --> 00:15:25,490 | |
| low risk investments المشكلة وين؟ المشكلة أن ال | |
| 180 | |
| 00:15:25,490 --> 00:15:31,550 | |
| lower risk instruments hold the majority of the | |
| 181 | |
| 00:15:31,550 --> 00:15:38,330 | |
| systematic risk in other words بكلمات أخرى the | |
| 182 | |
| 00:15:38,330 --> 00:15:40,590 | |
| lower risk investments | |
| 183 | |
| 00:15:42,110 --> 00:15:49,450 | |
| is subject to the impact of the systematic risk or | |
| 184 | |
| 00:15:49,450 --> 00:15:51,770 | |
| is a subject of the impact of the inflation rate | |
| 185 | |
| 00:15:51,770 --> 00:15:59,390 | |
| than any other securities يعني الأدوات | |
| 186 | |
| 00:15:59,390 --> 00:16:05,170 | |
| المالية قليلة المخاطر بتأثر بأكتر من أي أداء | |
| 187 | |
| 00:16:05,170 --> 00:16:09,700 | |
| استثمارية أخرى بالتدخم خلينا نشوف المثال هذاشوفوا | |
| 188 | |
| 00:16:09,700 --> 00:16:12,560 | |
| ال treasury bills انقرن ال treasury bills مع ال | |
| 189 | |
| 00:16:12,560 --> 00:16:15,840 | |
| commercial paper احنا we sell commercial paper is | |
| 190 | |
| 00:16:15,840 --> 00:16:21,620 | |
| one of the money market securities my question is | |
| 191 | |
| 00:16:21,620 --> 00:16:25,680 | |
| which is hold higher risk او lower risk؟ مين بيحمل | |
| 192 | |
| 00:16:25,680 --> 00:16:28,200 | |
| lower risk? treasury bills or commercial paper؟ | |
| 193 | |
| 00:16:28,200 --> 00:16:32,920 | |
| commercial paperإرادة my question like this yes | |
| 194 | |
| 00:16:32,920 --> 00:16:36,560 | |
| treasury bills who's holding lower risk treasury | |
| 195 | |
| 00:16:36,560 --> 00:16:41,140 | |
| bills okay so treasury bills holding lower risk | |
| 196 | |
| 00:16:41,140 --> 00:16:53,080 | |
| fine yes okay يعني أقل مخاطر أقل مخاطر ال treasury | |
| 197 | |
| 00:16:53,080 --> 00:17:03,520 | |
| bills بتحمل أقل مخاطرطبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا | |
| 198 | |
| 00:17:03,520 --> 00:17:09,360 | |
| طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا | |
| 199 | |
| 00:17:09,360 --> 00:17:13,000 | |
| طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا | |
| 200 | |
| 00:17:13,000 --> 00:17:18,180 | |
| طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا | |
| 201 | |
| 00:17:24,630 --> 00:17:27,670 | |
| the majority of the systematic risk انتبهوا لكلام | |
| 202 | |
| 00:17:27,670 --> 00:17:30,970 | |
| اللي انا بحكي فيه the majority of systematic risk | |
| 203 | |
| 00:17:30,970 --> 00:17:36,770 | |
| is inflation ايش يعني حكيته؟ the majority of | |
| 204 | |
| 00:17:36,770 --> 00:17:44,070 | |
| systematic risk is inflation غالبية risk ايش ال | |
| 205 | |
| 00:17:44,070 --> 00:17:48,690 | |
| systematic risk؟ مخاطر النظام هي تدخم يعني غالبية | |
| 206 | |
| 00:17:48,690 --> 00:17:52,590 | |
| المخاطر النظامية هي تدخم يعني لو احنا لاحظنا هنا | |
| 207 | |
| 00:17:53,380 --> 00:17:57,900 | |
| لأن هذا هو التضخم ال I مظبوط هذا كل هذا ال system | |
| 208 | |
| 00:17:57,900 --> 00:18:01,660 | |
| of interest كله هذا هذا الجزء الكبير منه تقريبا | |
| 209 | |
| 00:18:01,660 --> 00:18:08,340 | |
| جداش يعني ممكن اطلع مثلا ال لو قلنا 3.1 divided by | |
| 210 | |
| 00:18:08,340 --> 00:18:14,420 | |
| 3.70 جداش تطلع معاكم او 71 المخاطر النظامية كلها 3 | |
| 211 | |
| 00:18:14,420 --> 00:18:20,340 | |
| .71 كلها و 3.1 اللي هي ال inflation لوحدهاالغالبية | |
| 212 | |
| 00:18:20,340 --> 00:18:28,220 | |
| المخاطر النظامية هي inflation تقريبا فوق 8% تقريبا | |
| 213 | |
| 00:18:28,220 --> 00:18:36,200 | |
| 38% طيب نطلع على ال commercial paper نطلع على ال | |
| 214 | |
| 00:18:36,200 --> 00:18:41,600 | |
| commercial paper ال commercial paper لنفترض ال | |
| 215 | |
| 00:18:41,600 --> 00:18:44,360 | |
| return hand 5% | |
| 216 | |
| 00:18:47,640 --> 00:18:51,500 | |
| ال systematic risk او نحكي ال inflation زي ما | |
| 217 | |
| 00:18:51,500 --> 00:18:53,560 | |
| بتكون ال systematic risk و ال inflation واحد ال | |
| 218 | |
| 00:18:53,560 --> 00:18:58,980 | |
| inflation هي 3.1 بدنا نشوف to what extent the | |
| 219 | |
| 00:18:58,980 --> 00:19:01,780 | |
| inflation influence on the commercial paper لأي | |
| 220 | |
| 00:19:01,780 --> 00:19:05,200 | |
| درجة بتأثر ال systematic .. ال inflation بيأثر على | |
| 221 | |
| 00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:12,100 | |
| ال commercial paper بنقول 3.1 divided by 5 اللي هو | |
| 222 | |
| 00:19:12,100 --> 00:19:16,600 | |
| ال 5 5 percent جداش تطلع في النسبة المقوية؟ | |
| 223 | |
| 00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:30,720 | |
| كم؟ 62% خلّينا نقارن بين هذه وبين هذه هذه ال | |
| 224 | |
| 00:19:30,720 --> 00:19:35,500 | |
| treasury bills وهذه ال commercial paper تلاتة و | |
| 225 | |
| 00:19:35,500 --> 00:19:37,960 | |
| تمانية في المية معناه ان ال inflation أثرت على ال | |
| 226 | |
| 00:19:37,960 --> 00:19:40,740 | |
| treasury bills بتلاتة و تمانية في المية which is | |
| 227 | |
| 00:19:40,740 --> 00:19:44,520 | |
| higher أكتر طب نشوف ال commercial paper أداش أثرت | |
| 228 | |
| 00:19:44,520 --> 00:19:48,560 | |
| عليها أقل اذا هاي commercial paper وهذه ال | |
| 229 | |
| 00:19:48,560 --> 00:19:52,940 | |
| treasury bills انجرب ال stocks انجرب ايش ال stocks | |
| 230 | |
| 00:19:53,770 --> 00:19:59,610 | |
| الـ stocks مثلا نفترض أنها 9% عقل 9% نشوف .. نشوف | |
| 231 | |
| 00:19:59,610 --> 00:20:03,810 | |
| ال inflation rate هداش بتأثر بال stocks نفس .. نفس | |
| 232 | |
| 00:20:03,810 --> 00:20:11,770 | |
| الفكرة 3.1 divided by 9% عشان نشوف هداش بتأثر | |
| 233 | |
| 00:20:11,770 --> 00:20:20,990 | |
| عليها 34% 34% نقارن التلات نتائج ببعض look at this | |
| 234 | |
| 00:20:20,990 --> 00:20:34,060 | |
| 83%والذي هو أعلى، الورق التجاربي مصطلح، الأسعار هي | |
| 235 | |
| 00:20:34,060 --> 00:20:40,460 | |
| فرصة الاستثمار أو فرصة استثمار على | |
| 236 | |
| 00:20:42,990 --> 00:20:47,010 | |
| on the rate of return is less than the impact of | |
| 237 | |
| 00:20:47,010 --> 00:20:50,330 | |
| treasury bills of the inflation on the treasury | |
| 238 | |
| 00:20:50,330 --> 00:20:56,490 | |
| bills يعني أثر التضخم على الأسهم أقل من أثر التضخم | |
| 239 | |
| 00:20:56,490 --> 00:20:59,890 | |
| على ال treasury bills هذه الملاحظة التالتة اللي هي | |
| 240 | |
| 00:20:59,890 --> 00:21:08,770 | |
| هان لو كتبناكوا إياها the influence of | |
| 241 | |
| 00:21:08,770 --> 00:21:10,390 | |
| inflation | |
| 242 | |
| 00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:16,180 | |
| أو بنجوسانيه systematic risk because inflation is | |
| 243 | |
| 00:21:16,180 --> 00:21:23,780 | |
| systematic risk on | |
| 244 | |
| 00:21:23,780 --> 00:21:29,460 | |
| the influence of inflation or systematic risk on | |
| 245 | |
| 00:21:29,460 --> 00:21:36,580 | |
| the treasury bills is | |
| 246 | |
| 00:21:36,580 --> 00:21:45,710 | |
| higher than any other securitiesany other | |
| 247 | |
| 00:21:45,710 --> 00:21:50,630 | |
| securities زي ما إنتوا إحنا شايفين يعني أثر ال | |
| 248 | |
| 00:21:50,630 --> 00:21:55,450 | |
| inflation على ال treasury bills أكثر من أثر ال | |
| 249 | |
| 00:21:55,450 --> 00:22:00,310 | |
| inflation على أي security أخرى خليني أجرب ال | |
| 250 | |
| 00:22:00,310 --> 00:22:06,470 | |
| derivatives مشتقات العقل | |
| 251 | |
| 00:22:06,470 --> 00:22:10,910 | |
| بتاع المشتقات نفترض مثلا 70% | |
| 252 | |
| 00:22:14,020 --> 00:22:18,040 | |
| نقسم هان three point one اللي هى ال inflation | |
| 253 | |
| 00:22:18,040 --> 00:22:25,140 | |
| divided by seventy كدهش بتطلع؟ | |
| 254 | |
| 00:22:25,140 --> 00:22:33,080 | |
| three point one divided by seventy three | |
| 255 | |
| 00:22:33,080 --> 00:22:36,060 | |
| point one divided by seventy اربعمية و اربعمية | |
| 256 | |
| 00:22:36,060 --> 00:22:42,380 | |
| ماقول اربعمية يعني اربعمية او اربعميةلأ three | |
| 257 | |
| 00:22:42,380 --> 00:22:45,280 | |
| point one divided بس تلاتة فاصلة سبعة بتطلع zero | |
| 258 | |
| 00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:50,600 | |
| zero something أكام | |
| 259 | |
| 00:22:50,600 --> 00:22:55,180 | |
| zero عد؟ zero واحد أربعة و أربعين يعني بتأثر عليها | |
| 260 | |
| 00:22:55,180 --> 00:22:59,860 | |
| ب أربعة point أربعة percent أربعة فاصلة أربعة في | |
| 261 | |
| 00:22:59,860 --> 00:23:04,200 | |
| المية يعني بتأثر ال inflation على ال derivatives | |
| 262 | |
| 00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:08,140 | |
| بس ب أربعة فاصلة أربعة في المية so we conclude | |
| 263 | |
| 00:23:08,140 --> 00:23:12,330 | |
| thatthe treasury bills is more subject to | |
| 264 | |
| 00:23:12,330 --> 00:23:16,150 | |
| inflation than any other securities يعني أنا بحاول | |
| 265 | |
| 00:23:16,150 --> 00:23:21,130 | |
| بعطيكوا إياها بعدد لهجات و بعدد context بحيث أنه | |
| 266 | |
| 00:23:21,130 --> 00:23:27,690 | |
| you digest this يعني بحاول كذا طريقة أنه تصلكم | |
| 267 | |
| 00:23:27,690 --> 00:23:31,110 | |
| المعلومة okay | |
| 268 | |
| 00:23:35,690 --> 00:23:40,430 | |
| فإذا ال inflation rates بيأثر كتير على .. عنو | |
| 269 | |
| 00:23:40,430 --> 00:23:44,150 | |
| أكتر؟ ال lower securities ولا ال higher .. ال | |
| 270 | |
| 00:23:44,150 --> 00:23:46,670 | |
| lower risk securities ولا ال higher risk .. lower | |
| 271 | |
| 00:23:46,670 --> 00:23:51,950 | |
| .. lower risk لأن زي ما إحنا شايفين .. طب نشوف | |
| 272 | |
| 00:23:51,950 --> 00:23:56,850 | |
| ليش؟ why؟ إيش السبب؟ إحنا حكينا إن ال fee بيصير | |
| 273 | |
| 00:23:56,850 --> 00:24:01,310 | |
| هيك but why؟ why .. why the .. the lower | |
| 274 | |
| 00:24:01,310 --> 00:24:04,770 | |
| securitieswhile the lower .. the higher securities | |
| 275 | |
| 00:24:04,770 --> 00:24:10,830 | |
| or the higher risk securities fight | |
| 276 | |
| 00:24:10,830 --> 00:24:15,450 | |
| against inflation يعني تواجه الinflation because | |
| 277 | |
| 00:24:15,450 --> 00:24:20,650 | |
| investors .. أساس ال inflation مفرق واعرز okay طيب | |
| 278 | |
| 00:24:20,650 --> 00:24:24,450 | |
| الشغل اللي بتأثر كده هو ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال | |
| 279 | |
| 00:24:24,450 --> 00:24:24,550 | |
| .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. | |
| 280 | |
| 00:24:24,550 --> 00:24:24,930 | |
| ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال | |
| 281 | |
| 00:24:24,930 --> 00:24:27,130 | |
| .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. | |
| 282 | |
| 00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:32,820 | |
| يعني ان الinflation هو أسس المعنى المعدد هو system | |
| 283 | |
| 00:24:32,820 --> 00:24:39,560 | |
| of risk هو مخاطر نظامية عشان | |
| 284 | |
| 00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:44,500 | |
| هيك ال lower risk يتأثر فيها أكتر لسبب واضح ان ال | |
| 285 | |
| 00:24:44,500 --> 00:24:47,680 | |
| securities ال lower risk securities they don't | |
| 286 | |
| 00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:53,120 | |
| have a premium ماعندهم مش علامة عندهم مش ال ال ال | |
| 287 | |
| 00:24:53,120 --> 00:24:59,820 | |
| the R is small اه the real R is smallReal R إيش هي | |
| 288 | |
| 00:24:59,820 --> 00:25:05,980 | |
| ال real R؟ لو إجينا إحنا طلعوها أخدنا ال real R مش | |
| 289 | |
| 00:25:05,980 --> 00:25:13,400 | |
| هادي R ال real R هادي R بس لاحظولي على ال real R | |
| 290 | |
| 00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:19,820 | |
| سابتة لأ كيف يا بابا سابتة عادة ايوة ال real R | |
| 291 | |
| 00:25:19,820 --> 00:25:24,580 | |
| شوفي هذا هذا ال real R بعملك عليه هيك هو real R | |
| 292 | |
| 00:25:27,100 --> 00:25:30,200 | |
| اللي بعمل عليه cross هو real R ايش بتلاحظوا انتوا | |
| 293 | |
| 00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:37,180 | |
| بال real R؟ كل ما بيجيب بتزيد ايوة شوفوا ال real R | |
| 294 | |
| 00:25:37,180 --> 00:25:40,840 | |
| هان، قارنوا ال real R هان small r مش احنا قولنا ال | |
| 295 | |
| 00:25:40,840 --> 00:25:46,300 | |
| real R هي ال R .. هذه ال R كلها nominal minus ال I | |
| 296 | |
| 00:25:46,300 --> 00:25:52,480 | |
| فإيش بتلاحظوا ال R؟ شو بيصير فيها؟ ال increase | |
| 297 | |
| 00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:52,860 | |
| because | |
| 298 | |
| 00:25:56,850 --> 00:26:02,030 | |
| the real R has a positive function with the risk | |
| 299 | |
| 00:26:02,030 --> 00:26:11,270 | |
| هذا حطوها في بالكم R the small R هتطلعوا على ال | |
| 300 | |
| 00:26:11,270 --> 00:26:15,190 | |
| charts look at this chart look at this R شوفوا ال | |
| 301 | |
| 00:26:15,190 --> 00:26:19,070 | |
| R هذه شايفينها which is bigger this one or this | |
| 302 | |
| 00:26:19,070 --> 00:26:27,560 | |
| onethis one اذا حكينا هذه R نود هذي R1 R2 R3 R4 | |
| 303 | |
| 00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:36,120 | |
| طلعوا على R1 ال R1 ايه؟ حكينا فيها ال real of | |
| 304 | |
| 00:26:36,120 --> 00:26:39,940 | |
| commercial paper ال real for the bonds ال real for | |
| 305 | |
| 00:26:39,940 --> 00:26:43,520 | |
| the stocks ال real for the derivatives طلعوا ال | |
| 306 | |
| 00:26:43,520 --> 00:26:46,380 | |
| real بتاعة ال commercial paper is greater than the | |
| 307 | |
| 00:26:46,380 --> 00:26:52,050 | |
| real of the treasury bills why؟because the higher | |
| 308 | |
| 00:26:52,050 --> 00:26:57,610 | |
| the risk the higher are كل ما بتزيد ال risk كل ما | |
| 309 | |
| 00:26:57,610 --> 00:27:02,450 | |
| ال R بتزيد طيب look at here again the higher the | |
| 310 | |
| 00:27:02,450 --> 00:27:06,050 | |
| risk ال risk مشي زاد so the higher the R | |
| 311 | |
| 00:27:09,260 --> 00:27:15,400 | |
| bigger and bigger as the risk become bigger and | |
| 312 | |
| 00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:19,920 | |
| bigger as a result of risk طيب خلينا إذا .. إذا | |
| 313 | |
| 00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:27,100 | |
| تلاتة ناخد أربعة .. أربعة saying as sigma .. sigma | |
| 314 | |
| 00:27:27,100 --> 00:27:33,960 | |
| is a measure of risk as sigma increase as | |
| 315 | |
| 00:27:33,960 --> 00:27:37,140 | |
| sigma increases R increases | |
| 316 | |
| 00:27:40,380 --> 00:27:46,620 | |
| Okay, so this is the relation زي number four | |
| 317 | |
| 00:27:46,620 --> 00:27:51,740 | |
| مراحظة رقم أربعة زي ما sigma بتزيد طبعا ايه sigma؟ | |
| 318 | |
| 00:27:51,740 --> 00:27:57,700 | |
| sigma مخاطر هى هى دى sigma اه بيسموها risk امشوا | |
| 319 | |
| 00:27:57,700 --> 00:28:01,000 | |
| هيك يمين بتلاقيه ال R بتزيد because of systematic | |
| 320 | |
| 00:28:01,000 --> 00:28:05,800 | |
| because of the total risk increase لإن ال total | |
| 321 | |
| 00:28:05,800 --> 00:28:10,600 | |
| risk قاعد بزيدو كل ما زاد ال S كل ما زادت ال R ال | |
| 322 | |
| 00:28:10,600 --> 00:28:16,660 | |
| R صغيرة الملاحظة الرابعة as sigma increases ايش | |
| 323 | |
| 00:28:16,660 --> 00:28:19,840 | |
| sigma عارفين شو sigma ال standard deviation بتاعة | |
| 324 | |
| 00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:24,160 | |
| التو اللي حكينا فيها ليه هذه standard deviation | |
| 325 | |
| 00:28:24,160 --> 00:28:29,340 | |
| اللي هو standard deviation okay as sigma increases | |
| 326 | |
| 00:28:29,340 --> 00:28:36,810 | |
| كل ما sigma زادت كل ما R increasesكل ما R .. ال | |
| 327 | |
| 00:28:36,810 --> 00:28:42,410 | |
| real rate of return كل ما كان زائد زي ما انتوا | |
| 328 | |
| 00:28:42,410 --> 00:28:46,010 | |
| شايفين بال chart هو على حال ال chart يعني لو انا | |
| 329 | |
| 00:28:46,010 --> 00:28:51,010 | |
| هيك طلعت .. طلعت .. اه | |
| 330 | |
| 00:28:51,010 --> 00:28:56,450 | |
| .. كيف؟ ال R ال real دايما بتكون تربيه معاها اللي | |
| 331 | |
| 00:28:56,450 --> 00:29:00,130 | |
| هي .. معاها بال .. معاها بال .. بال total risk | |
| 332 | |
| 00:29:00,130 --> 00:29:04,330 | |
| خدوا بالك بال total risk okay طيب خلصنا الملاحظات | |
| 333 | |
| 00:29:04,330 --> 00:29:04,570 | |
| هذه | |
| 334 | |
| 00:29:15,920 --> 00:29:19,180 | |
| Okay وهي هم a dollar invested in treasury bills | |
| 335 | |
| 00:29:19,180 --> 00:29:21,440 | |
| from nineteen twenty six two thousand grow to | |
| 336 | |
| 00:29:21,440 --> 00:29:26,300 | |
| twenty dollar but with a real value only شوفوا رغم | |
| 337 | |
| 00:29:26,300 --> 00:29:30,160 | |
| انه لو احنا استثمرنا دولار واحد شوفوا لو احنا | |
| 338 | |
| 00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:35,220 | |
| استثمرنا دولار واحد في سنة الستة وعشرين لسنة الفين | |
| 339 | |
| 00:29:35,220 --> 00:29:39,170 | |
| وتسعة هنستفيد عشرين دولارلكن استفادتنا الحقيقية | |
| 340 | |
| 00:29:39,170 --> 00:29:44,890 | |
| كم؟ 1.69$ نرجع ال table لو احنا استثمرنا دولار | |
| 341 | |
| 00:29:44,890 --> 00:29:48,410 | |
| واحد في ال treasury bills بسنة ستة وعشرين الفين | |
| 342 | |
| 00:29:48,410 --> 00:29:53,670 | |
| وتسعة استفادتنا الحقيقية just point seventy طلع | |
| 343 | |
| 00:29:53,670 --> 00:29:58,090 | |
| لأن في عندى inflation عالي كتير لو احنا استثمرنا | |
| 344 | |
| 00:29:58,090 --> 00:30:01,550 | |
| من التمانية وستين للألفين وتسعة دولار واحد تمانية | |
| 345 | |
| 00:30:01,550 --> 00:30:05,090 | |
| وستين استفادتنا بس one point seventeenالحففية ال | |
| 346 | |
| 00:30:05,090 --> 00:30:10,130 | |
| real لو احنا استثمرنا من ال 26 لل 67 يعني استثمرنا | |
| 347 | |
| 00:30:10,130 --> 00:30:15,250 | |
| يعني تلاتين سنة تقريبا لو استثمرنا دول لو احنا لسا | |
| 348 | |
| 00:30:15,250 --> 00:30:17,290 | |
| في just point twenty four percent | |
| 349 | |
| 00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:23,960 | |
| Okay بأكد الكلام لو احنا استثمرنا دولار واحد بال | |
| 350 | |
| 00:30:23,960 --> 00:30:26,160 | |
| treasury bills من ستة و عشرين ل الفين و دسعة | |
| 351 | |
| 00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:29,560 | |
| هنستفيد عشرين دولار بقى ال reality احنا مستفدناش | |
| 352 | |
| 00:30:29,560 --> 00:30:32,780 | |
| لعشرين دولار استفدنا just طب ليش الفرق قد صار | |
| 353 | |
| 00:30:32,780 --> 00:30:37,480 | |
| because of what because of inflation لأنه ال | |
| 354 | |
| 00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:40,560 | |
| inflation هو عمل الكلام هذا طبعا بنات بتعرفوش | |
| 355 | |
| 00:30:40,560 --> 00:30:46,140 | |
| معناه inflation تدخم okay okay طيب | |
| 356 | |
| 00:30:49,580 --> 00:30:59,840 | |
| طب كيف أنا بدي أعرف العلاقة بين الinflation و | |
| 357 | |
| 00:30:59,840 --> 00:31:04,800 | |
| بين ال R بقيس أنا ال correlation سمعتوا في شغل | |
| 358 | |
| 00:31:04,800 --> 00:31:09,320 | |
| اسمها ال correlation الارتباط بقيس الارتباط في | |
| 359 | |
| 00:31:09,320 --> 00:31:11,720 | |
| فترة من الفترات كان الارتباط إيجابي بين | |
| 360 | |
| 00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:14,980 | |
| الinflation و between real rate of return وفترات | |
| 361 | |
| 00:31:14,980 --> 00:31:20,340 | |
| أخرى صار سلبي خلّيني نشوفnegative correlation | |
| 362 | |
| 00:31:20,340 --> 00:31:24,460 | |
| between real rates and inflation rates means that | |
| 363 | |
| 00:31:24,460 --> 00:31:27,940 | |
| nominal rate responds less than 1.1 to changes in | |
| 364 | |
| 00:31:27,940 --> 00:31:31,740 | |
| the expected inflation هذه هنشرحها، طلعواها، | |
| 365 | |
| 00:31:31,740 --> 00:31:34,360 | |
| طلعواها على ال chart، بدنا نحكي عن ال correlation | |
| 366 | |
| 00:31:34,360 --> 00:31:40,580 | |
| ال correlation اللي هو الارتباط الارتباط بين ال | |
| 367 | |
| 00:31:40,580 --> 00:31:45,100 | |
| real rate of return و الinflation و التضخم هو | |
| 368 | |
| 00:31:45,100 --> 00:31:50,310 | |
| ارتباط سلبي، negativeارتباط سلبي negative okay | |
| 369 | |
| 00:31:50,310 --> 00:31:56,490 | |
| لأنهم بيمشوا عكس بعض ننتبه هان نرجع كيف سلبي كل ما | |
| 370 | |
| 00:31:56,490 --> 00:32:02,610 | |
| زودنا ال inflation ال I كل ما ال R بتنزل فهذا ايش | |
| 371 | |
| 00:32:02,610 --> 00:32:06,590 | |
| يسموه correlation معله negative okay negative كيف | |
| 372 | |
| 00:32:06,590 --> 00:32:09,230 | |
| نقيسه بال Excel طبعا مش مطلوب منكوا تقيسوه بال | |
| 373 | |
| 00:32:09,230 --> 00:32:13,530 | |
| Excel بس كيف نقيسه نجيب ال I و نجيب ال R real rate | |
| 374 | |
| 00:32:13,530 --> 00:32:18,130 | |
| of return و بنعمل يسوي correlationالارتباط بيطلع | |
| 375 | |
| 00:32:18,130 --> 00:32:21,090 | |
| عندنا الارتباط وبعدين بيطلع عندنا الرسمة هذه لو | |
| 376 | |
| 00:32:21,090 --> 00:32:27,750 | |
| حبنا احنا نرسمها اتطلعوا ال correlation spend one | |
| 377 | |
| 00:32:27,750 --> 00:32:32,950 | |
| minute to look at this chart يعني فاكروا ده فيخة | |
| 378 | |
| 00:32:32,950 --> 00:32:37,290 | |
| واحدة عشان تفكروا بهال chart and what you observe | |
| 379 | |
| 00:32:37,290 --> 00:32:46,610 | |
| on this chart okay يالا بدنا نشوف answer منكميلا | |
| 380 | |
| 00:32:46,610 --> 00:32:54,510 | |
| answer me in nineteen twenty six we have .. we | |
| 381 | |
| 00:32:54,510 --> 00:32:57,890 | |
| haven't inflation we .. we haven't inflation؟ yes | |
| 382 | |
| 00:32:57,890 --> 00:33:02,650 | |
| we have inflation or we .. يعني لك ساعات okay من | |
| 383 | |
| 00:33:02,650 --> 00:33:05,670 | |
| ستة و عشرين لستة و تلاتين خلي بالك اول اشي ان ال | |
| 384 | |
| 00:33:05,670 --> 00:33:09,370 | |
| treasury treasury bill rates اللي هو ال black one | |
| 385 | |
| 00:33:09,370 --> 00:33:13,250 | |
| و ال inflation هو ال blue one okay تمام ايش كان .. | |
| 386 | |
| 00:33:13,250 --> 00:33:15,570 | |
| شو بطلع اصلا؟ كانت ستة و عشرين لستة و تلاتين | |
| 387 | |
| 00:33:15,800 --> 00:33:20,260 | |
| inflation okay تضخم اه و بعدين .. فى نفس اللحظة | |
| 388 | |
| 00:33:20,260 --> 00:33:23,240 | |
| إيش كان فى ال treasury bills طبعا كانت معدلاتها | |
| 389 | |
| 00:33:23,240 --> 00:33:26,840 | |
| تنزل شو اللي بنزل ال inflation ال treasury bills | |
| 390 | |
| 00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:30,820 | |
| كانت بالأول عالية و بعدين نزلت سنة مع المعدل سبعت | |
| 391 | |
| 00:33:30,820 --> 00:33:34,500 | |
| طيب و بعدين بدأت تطلع ال treasury bills و ال | |
| 392 | |
| 00:33:34,500 --> 00:33:38,820 | |
| inflation بدأت تطلع okay خليني .. okay كلامك فيه | |
| 393 | |
| 00:33:38,820 --> 00:33:44,240 | |
| منه صح نرادها هو عمال كانت بياكل الشراباتأه في هنا | |
| 394 | |
| 00:33:44,240 --> 00:33:48,940 | |
| negative correlation طلع و هان look at this لو | |
| 395 | |
| 00:33:48,940 --> 00:33:54,620 | |
| احنا كنا في النقطة هذه بس just observe on this لو | |
| 396 | |
| 00:33:54,620 --> 00:33:58,040 | |
| احنا أخدنا النقطة هذه هيك نقطة ملاحظ انه ال | |
| 397 | |
| 00:33:58,040 --> 00:34:02,640 | |
| treasury bills increase لكن الinflation decrease | |
| 398 | |
| 00:34:02,640 --> 00:34:08,720 | |
| فال correlation ايش كان negative through the time | |
| 399 | |
| 00:34:08,720 --> 00:34:12,060 | |
| مع الزمن ال correlation شو بيصير فيه بيصير | |
| 400 | |
| 00:34:12,060 --> 00:34:17,170 | |
| positiveلحظة يعني ال treasury bills ال inflation | |
| 401 | |
| 00:34:17,170 --> 00:34:24,190 | |
| نزل ال treasury bills نزلت معاها okay so دي اذا | |
| 402 | |
| 00:34:24,190 --> 00:34:29,550 | |
| احنا بنحكي باللحظة متى اتغيرت التوجه؟ قبل ال 68 | |
| 403 | |
| 00:34:29,550 --> 00:34:34,130 | |
| شوفوا بال .. قبل ال 68 او قبل ال 66 كان في | |
| 404 | |
| 00:34:34,130 --> 00:34:38,590 | |
| negative correlation و بعدين صار positive يعني | |
| 405 | |
| 00:34:38,590 --> 00:34:42,050 | |
| صارت ال inflation تمشي بالزق .. يعني يبدو كان اول | |
| 406 | |
| 00:34:42,050 --> 00:34:46,030 | |
| زمان انه ال .. ال financial الواقع ال .. مافيش | |
| 407 | |
| 00:34:46,030 --> 00:34:51,270 | |
| نظام مالي يعني ال inflation مش هي ال .. ال .. the | |
| 408 | |
| 00:34:51,270 --> 00:34:57,290 | |
| main .. the main systematic riskبعد هيك صارت ان ال | |
| 409 | |
| 00:34:57,290 --> 00:35:00,550 | |
| treasury bills طلعوا .. طلعوا النقطة هذه في ال 76 | |
| 410 | |
| 00:35:00,550 --> 00:35:08,190 | |
| ال .. ال inflation زادت و ال treasury bills زادت | |
| 411 | |
| 00:35:08,190 --> 00:35:11,730 | |
| ال treasury bills زادت و ال inflation زادت راحوا | |
| 412 | |
| 00:35:11,730 --> 00:35:16,150 | |
| نزلوا مع بعض زي ما انتوا شايفين نزلوا مع بعض طلعوا | |
| 413 | |
| 00:35:16,150 --> 00:35:20,830 | |
| مع بعضنزلوا مع بعض طلعوا مع بعض لكن لو احنا طلعنا | |
| 414 | |
| 00:35:20,830 --> 00:35:26,490 | |
| back to before 1968 لو احنا طلعنا شوفوا ال | |
| 415 | |
| 00:35:26,490 --> 00:35:31,530 | |
| inflation زادت هذه انخفضت او ثابتة هان مثلا شوفوا | |
| 416 | |
| 00:35:31,530 --> 00:35:35,390 | |
| النقطة هذه زادت هذه انخفضت ف this is important | |
| 417 | |
| 00:35:35,390 --> 00:35:39,050 | |
| make | |
| 418 | |
| 00:35:39,050 --> 00:35:42,050 | |
| .. make the correlation positive بيخلي ال .. ال | |
| 419 | |
| 00:35:42,050 --> 00:35:42,970 | |
| correlation positive | |
| 420 | |
| 00:35:45,540 --> 00:35:48,240 | |
| الأدوات المالية بالظبط كانت ال inflation مش هي | |
| 421 | |
| 00:35:48,240 --> 00:35:54,080 | |
| العامل الرئيسي لكن صارت ال .. طيب اذا هذا اللي | |
| 422 | |
| 00:35:54,080 --> 00:35:59,920 | |
| احنا بدي احكي فيه اليوم و في حد عندى سؤال؟ | |