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+{"segments": [{"id": 1, "seek": 4394, "start": 21.64, "end": 43.94, "text": "بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم اللقاءات الفاتت بال chapter 3 كنا نحكي عن ال trading in the stock markets و خاصام ال trading في ال primary market و ال secondary markets today we will talk about the bond trading الاتجار بالسندات and the cost of the trading و تكلفة الاتجار", "tokens": [3555, 38251, 21984, 34892, 5016, 27842, 34892, 5016, 32640, 13672, 4587, 16606, 9307, 27188, 9307, 2655, 20666, 7187, 805, 9122, 8315, 8717, 5016, 4117, 1829, 18871, 2423, 9529, 294, 264, 4127, 8383, 4032, 16490, 33546, 10943, 2423, 9529, 8978, 2423, 6194, 2142, 4032, 2423, 11396, 8383, 965, 321, 486, 751, 466, 264, 6086, 9529, 2423, 9307, 7435, 9640, 20666, 3794, 41260, 9307, 293, 264, 2063, 295, 264, 9529, 4032, 6055, 28820, 5172, 3660, 2423, 9307, 7435, 9640], "avg_logprob": -0.2035256402614789, "compression_ratio": 1.6525821596244132, "no_speech_prob": 1.7881393432617188e-07, "words": [{"start": 21.64, "end": 22.24, "word": "بسم", 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"text": "Okay؟ إذا السوق العادي أو النظامي مثل New York Stock Exchange هو سوق نظامي، كل العمليات فيه standard، نظامية حسب القوانين والأنظمة", "tokens": [8297, 22807, 11933, 15730, 21136, 30543, 18863, 995, 16254, 34051, 28239, 19913, 10943, 1829, 50113, 1211, 1873, 3609, 17857, 31169, 31439, 8608, 30543, 8717, 19913, 10943, 1829, 12399, 28242, 18863, 2304, 20292, 9307, 8978, 3224, 3832, 12399, 8717, 19913, 10943, 10632, 11331, 35457, 25062, 2407, 7649, 9957, 16070, 33456, 19913, 46007], "avg_logprob": -0.16286057634995535, "compression_ratio": 1.3184713375796178, "no_speech_prob": 4.76837158203125e-07, "words": [{"start": 119.27, "end": 120.19, "word": "Okay؟", "probability": 0.568359375}, {"start": 120.19, "end": 120.41, "word": " إذا", "probability": 0.670166015625}, {"start": 120.41, "end": 122.41, "word": " السوق", "probability": 0.7724609375}, {"start": 122.41, "end": 122.93, "word": " العادي", "probability": 0.8466796875}, {"start": 122.93, "end": 123.61, "word": " أو", 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So the over the counter markets هو زي ما حكينا هو سوق غير نظامي okay السوق الغير نظامي", "tokens": [3555, 29399, 38637, 7649, 1829, 3714, 25720, 36632, 36764, 24401, 3660, 39894, 5172, 2655, 5016, 2423, 6013, 8717, 3224, 16373, 1829, 19446, 4724, 16254, 8592, 5551, 8592, 38688, 11296, 9154, 4386, 407, 264, 670, 264, 5682, 8383, 31439, 30767, 1829, 19446, 11331, 4117, 1829, 8315, 31439, 8608, 30543, 32771, 13546, 8717, 19913, 10943, 1829, 1392, 21136, 30543, 6024, 118, 13546, 8717, 19913, 10943, 1829], "avg_logprob": -0.22367788461538463, "compression_ratio": 1.3869047619047619, "no_speech_prob": 1.0728836059570312e-06, "words": [{"start": 164.29, "end": 164.69, "word": "بنت", "probability": 0.88134765625}, {"start": 164.69, "end": 165.03, "word": " ثاني", "probability": 0.640380859375}, {"start": 165.03, "end": 165.37, "word": " مرة", "probability": 0.8525390625}, {"start": 165.37, "end": 165.79, "word": " أي", "probability": 0.55517578125}, {"start": 165.79, "end": 166.05, "word": " 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ال Nasdaq is dominated this market", "tokens": [11622, 1829, 19446, 11331, 4117, 1829, 8315, 5551, 7435, 3215, 25708, 2423, 1873, 3609, 17857, 31169, 23032, 3555, 3615, 995, 31439, 31439, 307, 11396, 2142, 307, 14702, 1080, 6086, 9529, 1185, 13672, 1829, 20328, 9640, 14407, 7251, 2655, 41779, 3615, 14407, 8978, 6225, 42213, 10632, 4724, 40228, 4032, 13412, 2288, 16606, 21136, 41260, 9307, 44381, 20666, 10721, 3794, 32277, 25961, 31439, 2423, 16151, 2675, 80, 307, 23755, 341, 2142], "avg_logprob": -0.1640625012772424, "compression_ratio": 1.3456221198156681, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 301.03, "end": 301.37, "word": "زي", "probability": 0.91650390625}, {"start": 301.37, "end": 301.43, "word": " ما", "probability": 0.9775390625}, {"start": 301.43, "end": 301.83, "word": " حكينا", "probability": 0.94384765625}, {"start": 301.83, "end": 302.35, "word": " أجديد", "probability": 0.62713623046875}, {"start": 302.35, "end": 302.43, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.471923828125}, 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1.0}, {"id": 50, "seek": 119543, "start": 1173.81, "end": 1195.43, "text": "Okay هذا ال commission من قيمة الصفقة زي ما عندنا في سوق فلسطين أوراق المالية في سوق فلسطين أوراق المالية بياخدوا commission هذا ال commission مش بس لل .. لل .. لل broker كمان بتروح جزء منها للسوق المالي okay بالإضافة لل spread اللي حكينا فيه اللي هو الفرق بين ال bid و ال ask", "tokens": [8297, 23758, 2423, 9221, 9154, 12174, 32640, 3660, 31767, 5172, 28671, 30767, 1829, 19446, 43242, 8315, 8978, 8608, 30543, 6156, 1211, 3794, 9566, 9957, 5551, 13063, 995, 4587, 9673, 6027, 10632, 8978, 8608, 30543, 6156, 1211, 3794, 9566, 9957, 5551, 13063, 995, 4587, 9673, 6027, 10632, 4724, 1829, 47283, 3215, 14407, 9221, 23758, 2423, 9221, 37893, 4724, 3794, 24976, 4386, 24976, 4386, 24976, 26502, 9122, 2304, 7649, 39894, 32887, 5016, 10874, 11622, 38207, 9154, 11296, 24976, 3794, 30543, 9673, 6027, 1829, 1392, 20666, 28814, 11242, 31845, 3660, 24976, 3974, 13672, 1829, 11331, 4117, 1829, 8315, 8978, 3224, 13672, 1829, 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" commission", "probability": 0.833984375}, {"start": 1182.95, "end": 1183.75, "word": " هذا", "probability": 0.47314453125}, {"start": 1183.75, "end": 1183.87, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.974609375}, {"start": 1183.87, "end": 1184.11, "word": " commission", "probability": 0.7431640625}, {"start": 1184.11, "end": 1184.33, "word": " مش", "probability": 0.9716796875}, {"start": 1184.33, "end": 1184.55, "word": " بس", "probability": 0.957763671875}, {"start": 1184.55, "end": 1184.75, "word": " لل", "probability": 0.748046875}, {"start": 1184.75, "end": 1185.11, "word": " ..", "probability": 0.60888671875}, {"start": 1185.11, "end": 1185.47, "word": " لل", "probability": 0.8876953125}, {"start": 1185.47, "end": 1185.75, "word": " ..", "probability": 0.56201171875}, {"start": 1185.75, "end": 1186.21, "word": " لل", "probability": 0.78173828125}, {"start": 1186.21, "end": 1186.61, "word": " broker", "probability": 0.939453125}, {"start": 1186.61, "end": 1186.93, "word": " كمان", 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فيه", "probability": 0.9912109375}, {"start": 1193.19, "end": 1193.77, "word": " اللي", "probability": 0.9677734375}, {"start": 1193.77, "end": 1193.87, "word": " هو", "probability": 0.99560546875}, {"start": 1193.87, "end": 1194.21, "word": " الفرق", "probability": 0.9830729166666666}, {"start": 1194.21, "end": 1194.41, "word": " بين", "probability": 0.69091796875}, {"start": 1194.41, "end": 1194.55, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.91943359375}, {"start": 1194.55, "end": 1194.79, "word": " bid", "probability": 0.96826171875}, {"start": 1194.79, "end": 1195.07, "word": " و", "probability": 0.80810546875}, {"start": 1195.07, "end": 1195.13, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.96240234375}, {"start": 1195.13, "end": 1195.43, "word": " ask", "probability": 0.951171875}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 51, "seek": 122505, "start": 1196.93, "end": 1225.05, "text": "و هنشوف كمان شوية أنواع أخرى من ال cost ممكن يتحملها ل trader طبعا it is implicit cost of trading هى بتكون غير ظاهرة لما أنا بستخدم ال spreads بتكون implicit أيش معناه implicit بتكون هي خفية مابنشوفهاش يعني هلأ مثلا هنشوف لو احنا بنشتري نشتري مثلا سهم", "tokens": [2407, 8032, 1863, 8592, 38688, 9122, 2304, 7649, 13412, 2407, 10632, 14739, 14407, 3615, 5551, 34740, 7578, 9154, 2423, 2063, 3714, 43020, 7251, 2655, 35571, 1211, 11296, 5296, 31961, 23032, 3555, 3615, 995, 309, 307, 26947, 2063, 295, 9529, 8032, 7578, 39894, 30544, 32771, 13546, 1357, 116, 40294, 25720, 5296, 15042, 41850, 4724, 14851, 9778, 40448, 2423, 25728, 39894, 30544, 26947, 36632, 8592, 20449, 8315, 3224, 26947, 39894, 30544, 39896, 16490, 5172, 10632, 3714, 16758, 1863, 8592, 38688, 11296, 8592, 37495, 22653, 8032, 1211, 10721, 50113, 15040, 8032, 1863, 8592, 38688, 45164, 1975, 5016, 8315, 44945, 8592, 2655, 16572, 8717, 8592, 2655, 16572, 50113, 15040, 8608, 16095], "avg_logprob": -0.1714409691868005, "compression_ratio": 1.7112068965517242, "no_speech_prob": 5.960464477539063e-08, "words": [{"start": 1196.93, "end": 1197.09, "word": "و", 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"word": " margin", "probability": 0.94873046875}, {"start": 1328.7, "end": 1329.16, "word": " cost", "probability": 0.919921875}, {"start": 1329.16, "end": 1330.88, "word": " اللى", "probability": 0.903076171875}, {"start": 1330.88, "end": 1330.96, "word": " هو", "probability": 0.75244140625}, {"start": 1330.96, "end": 1331.22, "word": " buying", "probability": 0.76171875}, {"start": 1331.22, "end": 1331.42, "word": " by", "probability": 0.951171875}, {"start": 1331.42, "end": 1331.88, "word": " margin", "probability": 0.9814453125}, {"start": 1331.88, "end": 1335.02, "word": " اه", "probability": 0.41192626953125}, {"start": 1335.02, "end": 1337.14, "word": " ده", "probability": 0.6995849609375}, {"start": 1337.14, "end": 1337.4, "word": " اهم", "probability": 0.80224609375}, {"start": 1337.4, "end": 1338.0, "word": " اشي", "probability": 0.8175455729166666}, {"start": 1338.0, "end": 1347.74, "word": " فلو", "probability": 0.6127115885416666}, {"start": 1347.74, "end": 1347.98, "word": " احنا", "probability": 0.9733072916666666}, {"start": 1347.98, "end": 1348.36, "word": " رجعنا", "probability": 0.989990234375}, {"start": 1348.36, "end": 1348.64, "word": " هدول", "probability": 0.9749348958333334}, {"start": 1348.64, "end": 1348.78, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.98095703125}, {"start": 1348.78, "end": 1349.16, "word": " cost", "probability": 0.921875}, {"start": 1349.16, "end": 1351.04, "word": " هدول", "probability": 0.9378255208333334}, {"start": 1351.04, "end": 1351.22, "word": " اذا", "probability": 0.867919921875}, {"start": 1351.22, "end": 1351.48, "word": " احنا", "probability": 0.984375}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 57, "seek": 137921, "start": 1352.75, "end": 1379.21, "text": "ال .. ال training costs هدول الكل لازم يتحملهم كل ال .. ال investors بس في حالة ال margin سواء هاي ال brokerage commission يعني عمولة ال .. الوساطة هي نوع و اللي هو ال spread الفرق بين البيع والشرم في شي؟ اه فال brokerage commission", "tokens": [6027, 4386, 2423, 3097, 5497, 8032, 3215, 12610, 2423, 28820, 5296, 31377, 2304, 7251, 2655, 35571, 1211, 16095, 28242, 2423, 4386, 2423, 11519, 4724, 3794, 8978, 11331, 6027, 3660, 2423, 10270, 8608, 2407, 16606, 8032, 47302, 2423, 26502, 609, 9221, 37495, 22653, 6225, 2304, 12610, 3660, 2423, 4386, 2423, 41779, 41193, 3660, 39896, 8717, 45367, 4032, 13672, 1829, 31439, 2423, 3974, 27188, 2288, 4587, 49374, 2423, 21292, 3615, 16070, 46309, 2304, 8978, 44049, 22807, 1975, 3224, 6156, 6027, 26502, 609, 9221], "avg_logprob": -0.23837652766123052, "compression_ratio": 1.6473429951690821, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 1352.75, "end": 1353.05, "word": "ال", "probability": 0.92724609375}, {"start": 1353.05, "end": 1353.17, "word": " ..", "probability": 0.24755859375}, {"start": 1353.17, "end": 1353.35, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.88330078125}, {"start": 1353.35, "end": 1353.63, "word": " training", "probability": 0.626953125}, {"start": 1353.63, "end": 1354.11, "word": " costs", "probability": 0.5634765625}, {"start": 1354.11, "end": 1354.97, "word": " هدول", "probability": 0.9612630208333334}, {"start": 1354.97, "end": 1356.39, "word": " الكل", "probability": 0.766845703125}, {"start": 1356.39, "end": 1356.61, "word": " لازم", "probability": 0.98974609375}, {"start": 1356.61, "end": 1357.19, "word": " يتحملهم", "probability": 0.9873046875}, {"start": 1357.19, "end": 1358.27, "word": " كل", "probability": 0.66357421875}, {"start": 1358.27, "end": 1358.43, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.97705078125}, {"start": 1358.43, "end": 1358.51, "word": " ..", "probability": 0.26611328125}, {"start": 1358.51, "end": 1358.69, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.9501953125}, {"start": 1358.69, "end": 1359.03, "word": " investors", "probability": 0.9873046875}, {"start": 1359.03, "end": 1360.03, "word": " بس", "probability": 0.9697265625}, {"start": 1360.03, "end": 1360.17, "word": " في", "probability": 0.81689453125}, {"start": 1360.17, "end": 1360.45, "word": " حالة", "probability": 0.9609375}, {"start": 1360.45, "end": 1360.57, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.9521484375}, {"start": 1360.57, "end": 1361.07, "word": " margin", "probability": 0.966796875}, {"start": 1361.07, "end": 1363.13, "word": " سواء", "probability": 0.6922607421875}, {"start": 1363.13, "end": 1363.41, "word": " هاي", "probability": 0.522705078125}, {"start": 1363.41, "end": 1363.81, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.9853515625}, {"start": 1363.81, "end": 1364.25, "word": " brokerage", "probability": 0.7666015625}, {"start": 1364.25, "end": 1364.67, "word": " commission", "probability": 0.95068359375}, {"start": 1364.67, "end": 1366.93, "word": " يعني", "probability": 0.929931640625}, {"start": 1366.93, "end": 1367.45, "word": " عمولة", "probability": 0.935791015625}, {"start": 1367.45, "end": 1367.71, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.99609375}, {"start": 1367.71, "end": 1368.05, "word": " ..", "probability": 0.96728515625}, {"start": 1368.05, "end": 1369.53, "word": " الوساطة", "probability": 0.8582763671875}, {"start": 1369.53, "end": 1369.75, "word": " هي", "probability": 0.452880859375}, {"start": 1369.75, "end": 1370.03, "word": " نوع", "probability": 0.60015869140625}, {"start": 1370.03, "end": 1370.61, "word": " و", "probability": 0.74072265625}, {"start": 1370.61, "end": 1370.75, "word": " اللي", "probability": 0.884765625}, {"start": 1370.75, "end": 1370.99, "word": " هو", "probability": 0.99267578125}, {"start": 1370.99, "end": 1371.45, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.982421875}, {"start": 1371.45, "end": 1371.91, "word": " spread", "probability": 0.9111328125}, {"start": 1371.91, "end": 1372.59, "word": " الفرق", "probability": 0.9454752604166666}, {"start": 1372.59, "end": 1372.79, "word": " بين", "probability": 0.994140625}, {"start": 1372.79, "end": 1373.15, "word": " البيع", "probability": 0.9109700520833334}, {"start": 1373.15, "end": 1373.85, "word": " والشرم", "probability": 0.5741373697916666}, {"start": 1373.85, "end": 1375.47, "word": " في", "probability": 0.51171875}, {"start": 1375.47, "end": 1376.69, "word": " شي؟", "probability": 0.4923095703125}, {"start": 1376.69, "end": 1377.07, "word": " اه", "probability": 0.855224609375}, {"start": 1377.07, "end": 1377.89, "word": " فال", "probability": 0.82080078125}, {"start": 1377.89, "end": 1378.59, "word": " brokerage", "probability": 0.960693359375}, {"start": 1378.59, "end": 1379.21, "word": " commission", "probability": 0.9697265625}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 58, "seek": 138935, "start": 1380.75, "end": 1389.35, "text": "أولت الوساطة لازم احنا لازم ال ال brokerage services حسب نوع الوساطة فيه بياخد commission و ال spread اللي هو طبعا حاكينا فيه ال implicit", "tokens": [10721, 12610, 2655, 2423, 41779, 41193, 3660, 5296, 31377, 2304, 1975, 5016, 8315, 5296, 31377, 2304, 2423, 2423, 26502, 609, 3328, 11331, 35457, 8717, 45367, 2423, 41779, 41193, 3660, 8978, 3224, 4724, 1829, 47283, 3215, 9221, 4032, 2423, 3974, 13672, 1829, 31439, 23032, 3555, 3615, 995, 11331, 995, 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\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/03vYssE7X1c_raw.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/03vYssE7X1c_raw.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..4b377b42173f34bb348b8fb77c037d1f29a87fb1
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/03vYssE7X1c_raw.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1252 @@
+1
+00:00:21,640 --> 00:00:26,160
+بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم اللقاءات الفاتت بال chapter
+
+2
+00:00:26,160 --> 00:00:31,300
+3 كنا نحكي عن ال trading in the stock markets و
+
+3
+00:00:31,300 --> 00:00:33,120
+خاصام ال trading في ال primary market و ال
+
+4
+00:00:33,120 --> 00:00:37,100
+secondary markets today we will talk about the
+
+5
+00:00:37,100 --> 00:00:41,400
+bond trading الاتجار بالسندات and the cost of the
+
+6
+00:00:41,400 --> 00:00:46,600
+trading و تكلفة الاتجارطبعا نحكي في البداية عن ال
+
+7
+00:00:46,600 --> 00:00:50,500
+bond trading ال
+
+8
+00:00:50,500 --> 00:00:54,380
+bond اللي هو السندات most of the bond are trading
+
+9
+00:00:54,380 --> 00:01:01,600
+in the in the OTC markets OTC market OTC it's
+
+10
+00:01:01,600 --> 00:01:08,840
+stand for over the counter market over the counter
+
+11
+00:01:11,430 --> 00:01:14,570
+markets over-the-counter markets over-the-counter
+
+12
+00:01:14,570 --> 00:01:18,030
+markets يعني أسواق غير نظامية نعطي مثال على سوق
+
+13
+00:01:18,030 --> 00:01:23,590
+نظامي اللي هو بال bond trading New York Stock
+
+14
+00:01:23,590 --> 00:01:27,410
+Exchange هو نوع من الألوان النظامية يعني البورصة
+
+15
+00:01:27,410 --> 00:01:29,710
+العادية تشوفها أو السوق المالي العادي هذا بيسموه
+
+16
+00:01:29,710 --> 00:01:34,690
+سوق نظامي في بعض العمليات بتتم خارج السوق المالي
+
+17
+00:01:34,690 --> 00:01:39,880
+هذا بيسميها over-the-counter يعني مثلالو كانت
+
+18
+00:01:39,880 --> 00:01:45,700
+التعليمات بتحكي أنه الصفقات في السوق المالي العادي
+
+19
+00:01:45,700 --> 00:01:50,920
+مثلا نشتري مضاعفات لعشر تلاف سهم، the rounding of
+
+20
+00:01:50,920 --> 00:01:54,500
+ten thousand stocks طب لو كان احنا بدنا تسعمية و
+
+21
+00:01:54,500 --> 00:01:57,420
+خمسين سهم، من وين نجيبهم؟ منروح على ال over the
+
+22
+00:01:57,420 --> 00:02:04,030
+counter marketsOkay؟ إذا السوق العادي أو النظامي
+
+23
+00:02:04,030 --> 00:02:07,690
+مثل New York Stock Exchange هو سوق نظامي، كل
+
+24
+00:02:07,690 --> 00:02:11,990
+العمليات فيه standard، نظامية حسب القوانين
+
+25
+00:02:11,990 --> 00:02:16,610
+والأنظمةover the counter market انعمل عشان في
+
+26
+00:02:16,610 --> 00:02:20,930
+small dealers or small investors they want to
+
+27
+00:02:20,930 --> 00:02:26,130
+trade in the financial markets so to make the life
+
+28
+00:02:26,130 --> 00:02:30,010
+easy for them عشان يسهلوا حياتهم so they issue the
+
+29
+00:02:30,010 --> 00:02:34,430
+O to C markets over the counter markets لأنه لازم
+
+30
+00:02:34,430 --> 00:02:38,270
+يشتري الواحد مثلا عشر تلاف سهم فاللي معاه بس قيمة
+
+31
+00:02:38,270 --> 00:02:41,170
+ال mobile اللي بيحكي ي rate it okay
+
+32
+00:02:44,290 --> 00:02:47,970
+بنت ثاني مرة أي واحدة بتفتح ال mobile نهائي ما
+
+33
+00:02:47,970 --> 00:02:52,230
+بديش أشوفها من .. So the over the counter markets
+
+34
+00:02:52,230 --> 00:02:57,170
+هو زي ما حكينا هو سوق غير نظامي okay السوق الغير
+
+35
+00:02:57,170 --> 00:03:01,990
+نظاميالعمليات اللي لا تنطبق على السوق النظامي
+
+36
+00:03:01,990 --> 00:03:05,290
+بيروحوا ينافسوها بالسوق الغير نظامي اعطينا بفعل
+
+37
+00:03:05,290 --> 00:03:09,810
+بسيط على how we trade this ال bond market سوق
+
+38
+00:03:09,810 --> 00:03:14,050
+السندات سوق السندات هذا السوق السودا؟ لأ مش السوق
+
+39
+00:03:14,050 --> 00:03:19,850
+السودا هي it is organized هذه بتكون مرظمة لكن بعض
+
+40
+00:03:19,850 --> 00:03:22,190
+التعليمات اللي ما بتنطبق على السوق العادى بتروح
+
+41
+00:03:22,190 --> 00:03:26,330
+على ال OTC market و هذه one of the largest markets
+
+42
+00:03:26,330 --> 00:03:30,750
+بفعلها ال nasdaqال OTC أكبر مثال إلها ال إيش؟ ال
+
+43
+00:03:30,750 --> 00:03:35,530
+Nasdaq، معرفين ال Nasdaq one of the largest market
+
+44
+00:03:35,530 --> 00:03:42,010
+in .. in .. in the world، أكبر سوق في العالم، أظن
+
+45
+00:03:42,010 --> 00:03:44,730
+بيجي بعد New York Stock Exchange، بعد سوق New York
+
+46
+00:03:46,610 --> 00:03:51,830
+فعشان هيك ال bond market يتم الاتجار فيها في ال
+
+47
+00:03:51,830 --> 00:03:56,130
+OTC markets حديثا او جديد السنوات الأخيرة صار ال
+
+48
+00:03:56,130 --> 00:03:59,090
+bond market صار ال bond market is traded through
+
+49
+00:03:59,090 --> 00:04:02,230
+the New York Stock Exchange طبعا احنا في الأسواق
+
+50
+00:04:02,230 --> 00:04:04,970
+السوق الفلسطيني مافيش عنده bond market مافيش عنده
+
+51
+00:04:04,970 --> 00:04:12,050
+أسواق سندات لكن في في مصر مثلا في دبي في هذه الدول
+
+52
+00:04:12,050 --> 00:04:14,730
+في عندهم أسواق سندات okay
+
+53
+00:04:17,710 --> 00:04:20,830
+comparing with the stock market, the bond market
+
+54
+00:04:20,830 --> 00:04:26,510
+is very thin، thin يعني محدود، يعني ال stock
+
+55
+00:04:26,510 --> 00:04:30,750
+market is heavily traded, however the bond market
+
+56
+00:04:30,750 --> 00:04:36,600
+is a thin traded، يعني الاتجار فيه ضعيفليش ال bond
+
+57
+00:04:36,600 --> 00:04:40,640
+market السندات؟ ليش تصبح ضعيف؟ because the trading
+
+58
+00:04:40,640 --> 00:04:43,760
+on the bond market is limited to the corporations
+
+59
+00:04:43,760 --> 00:04:47,840
+and governments لأنه الاتجار في سوق السندات فقط
+
+60
+00:04:47,840 --> 00:04:52,780
+محدود للشركات وللحكومة فمعناه كلام ال individuals
+
+61
+00:04:52,780 --> 00:04:57,200
+they cannot access this market مقدروش انه يعملوا
+
+62
+00:04:57,200 --> 00:04:58,440
+trade في هذا السوق
+
+63
+00:05:01,030 --> 00:05:04,370
+زي ما حكينا أجديد ال New York Stock Exchange طبعا
+
+64
+00:05:04,370 --> 00:05:12,590
+هو هو is secondary market is expanding its bond
+
+65
+00:05:12,590 --> 00:05:18,210
+trading system اللي صاروا يتوسعوا في عملية بيع و
+
+66
+00:05:18,210 --> 00:05:21,890
+شراء السندات لكن بالأساس كان هو ال Nasdaq is
+
+67
+00:05:21,890 --> 00:05:25,140
+dominated this marketبعد New York Stock Exchange
+
+68
+00:05:25,140 --> 00:05:30,640
+صار برضه سوق شيكاجو الأسواق الأخرى ال euro market
+
+69
+00:05:30,640 --> 00:05:33,200
+euro next كلهم صاروا يشتغلوا في ال bond markets
+
+70
+00:05:33,200 --> 00:05:38,460
+New York Stock Exchange now after the expansion
+
+71
+00:05:39,490 --> 00:05:43,010
+after the expansion, New York Stock Exchange bonds
+
+72
+00:05:43,010 --> 00:05:46,830
+is the largest centralized bond market of any US
+
+73
+00:05:46,830 --> 00:05:51,750
+exchange بعد التوسع اللي عملوها في التسويق للسندات
+
+74
+00:05:51,750 --> 00:05:55,290
+أصبح New York Stock Exchange هو أكبر سوق سندات في
+
+75
+00:05:55,290 --> 00:06:01,870
+الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية هذا
+
+76
+00:06:01,870 --> 00:06:06,570
+التطور في ال bond trading market
+
+77
+00:06:10,760 --> 00:06:14,000
+نرجع لبعض الأسواق العالمية و بس يعني تاخدوا نظرة
+
+78
+00:06:14,000 --> 00:06:18,540
+عنها في عندنا London Stock Exchange and London
+
+79
+00:06:18,540 --> 00:06:21,620
+Stock Exchange is electronic markets سوق إلكتروني
+
+80
+00:06:21,620 --> 00:06:29,120
+كله بال .. بال stocks و بال bonds السوق سندات و
+
+81
+00:06:29,120 --> 00:06:34,160
+حكينا عن ال Euronext ال Euronext markets هذا ال
+
+82
+00:06:34,160 --> 00:06:40,050
+Euronext بدوم مجموعة أسواق مع بعضيعني هو سوق من
+
+83
+00:06:40,050 --> 00:06:44,330
+مجموعة أسواق إيش الأسواق اللي بضمها باريس و
+
+84
+00:06:44,330 --> 00:06:48,030
+Amsterdam and Brussels exchange كلهم يعني لو إحنا
+
+85
+00:06:48,030 --> 00:06:52,610
+بنعمل اتجار في أي سوق من هدول أسواق okay ال euro
+
+86
+00:06:52,610 --> 00:06:56,530
+next هو اللي بنفذ العمليات اللي بتتم في باريس في
+
+87
+00:06:56,530 --> 00:07:01,530
+Amsterdam and Brussels و بعدين اللي صار اليوم كمان
+
+88
+00:07:01,530 --> 00:07:04,910
+و المرة الأخيرة سألنا سؤال why the prices moving
+
+89
+00:07:04,910 --> 00:07:11,130
+together لأنه صار في mergingbetween the some euros
+
+90
+00:07:11,130 --> 00:07:14,990
+markets and united states markets يعني صار اندماج
+
+91
+00:07:14,990 --> 00:07:18,970
+أو دمج في بعض الأسواق الأوروبية و بعض الأسواق
+
+92
+00:07:18,970 --> 00:07:23,330
+الأمريكية يعني زي ما صار في دمج بين euronext و بين
+
+93
+00:07:23,330 --> 00:07:27,620
+ال New York Stock Exchangeفهذا ال damage صار إنه
+
+94
+00:07:27,620 --> 00:07:32,680
+إحنا لو بناريش أي سهم أو أي سند من .. من أوروبا
+
+95
+00:07:32,680 --> 00:07:36,280
+ممكن نشتريه من البلاد المتحدة الأمريكية okay صار
+
+96
+00:07:36,280 --> 00:07:39,540
+ال .. ال companies listed in the United States the
+
+97
+00:07:39,540 --> 00:07:41,640
+same companies listed in the .. in European
+
+98
+00:07:41,640 --> 00:07:46,740
+countries markets فهذا صار في تداخل في الأسواق
+
+99
+00:07:46,740 --> 00:07:51,940
+الناجين فينا كمان من الأسواق القوية Tokyo Stock
+
+100
+00:07:51,940 --> 00:07:54,960
+Exchange Tokyo Stock Exchange من أقوى الأسواق في
+
+101
+00:07:54,960 --> 00:08:00,300
+منطقة أسياتوكيو بتلاحظوا ان الأسواق المالية هذه
+
+102
+00:08:00,300 --> 00:08:05,540
+ايش السبب انه بيعملوا merging و .. و .. و .. و
+
+103
+00:08:05,540 --> 00:08:09,140
+بيكون في 24 hours trading لو احنا مشينا مع عقار
+
+104
+00:08:09,140 --> 00:08:13,210
+بالساعةلو مشينا مع أقارب الساعة نشوف هالأسواق
+
+105
+00:08:13,210 --> 00:08:17,970
+المالية هي كده تمشي مع أقارب الساعة اليوم الساعة
+
+106
+00:08:17,970 --> 00:08:20,570
+الصباح الساعة تمانية الصبح بتشرق الشمس على آسيا
+
+107
+00:08:20,570 --> 00:08:24,990
+صح؟ أول ما بتبدأ الشمس تشرق من منطقة آسيا الصين
+
+108
+00:08:24,990 --> 00:08:29,450
+واليابان فبتكون تونتو يفاتح يعني من الساعة اتناشر
+
+109
+00:08:29,450 --> 00:08:36,210
+في الليل احنا بتوقيت فلسطين لتمانية صباح توقيتنا
+
+110
+00:08:36,210 --> 00:08:40,300
+بتكون منطقة آسيا بتفتح سوق بسوقOkay واحدة واحدة
+
+111
+00:08:40,300 --> 00:08:44,480
+يعني كل ساعة تفتحنا سوق تبدأ الدنيا ماشية من .. من
+
+112
+00:08:44,480 --> 00:08:48,380
+قاسي يعني لو احنا بنمشي هذا الشمس و بتمشي الشمس
+
+113
+00:08:48,380 --> 00:08:53,780
+بهذه الطريقة هاي okay فبتقابلنا ال Japan okay
+
+114
+00:08:53,780 --> 00:08:57,660
+بعدين بتمشي بتفتح China and and so on بعدين تدخل
+
+115
+00:08:57,660 --> 00:09:01,380
+على ال middle eastفي ال middle east تبدأ الساعة
+
+116
+00:09:01,380 --> 00:09:06,040
+تمانية تفتح الدنيا صح اللي هو eight طبعا هاي ال
+
+117
+00:09:06,040 --> 00:09:08,900
+middle east فأهم سوق في ال middle east هو سوق دبي
+
+118
+00:09:08,900 --> 00:09:13,860
+او سوق .. سوق دبي، سوق قطر، البحرين، الأكسندريا و
+
+119
+00:09:13,860 --> 00:09:20,060
+كايرو وعمان، هدول أسواق بتفتح يعني ورا بعضو اذا
+
+120
+00:09:20,060 --> 00:09:24,500
+احنا we moving و تبضلنا ماشيين الساعة عشرة صباح
+
+121
+00:09:24,500 --> 00:09:28,140
+طلقيتنا برضه بتفتح تبقى زي فتح أوروبا تمشي الشمس
+
+122
+00:09:28,140 --> 00:09:33,140
+عشان تشرق على أوروبا بتبقى بلندن فرانكفورت باريس
+
+123
+00:09:33,140 --> 00:09:38,380
+كله بيمشي معاهم بعدين again الساعة طبعا لو حكينا
+
+124
+00:09:38,380 --> 00:09:42,140
+احنا من الساعة اتناش تمانية من الساعة تمانية لساعة
+
+125
+00:09:42,140 --> 00:09:49,330
+اربعة بيبدو ال middle east plus Europe و أوروباشرق
+
+126
+00:09:49,330 --> 00:09:53,730
+الأوسط وأوروبا ماشيين على خطوط متساوي بعدين من
+
+127
+00:09:53,730 --> 00:09:59,950
+السقع 4 مين بده مفتاح؟iso united states من الساعة
+
+128
+00:09:59,950 --> 00:10:02,990
+أربعة بيبدو لعند الساعة اتناش أسواق الولايات
+
+129
+00:10:02,990 --> 00:10:06,490
+المتاحة الأمريكية كندا و المكسيك و الدول أمريكا
+
+130
+00:10:06,490 --> 00:10:10,730
+الشمالية و أمريكا الجنوبية okay فبصير .. بصير هيك
+
+131
+00:10:10,730 --> 00:10:14,530
+الأسواق المالية كلها بتكون كل فاتحة twenty four
+
+132
+00:10:14,530 --> 00:10:18,050
+hours فعشان هيك بحتاجوا يعملوا merging بين الأسواق
+
+133
+00:10:18,050 --> 00:10:20,870
+المالية عشان مايصيرش في fluctuation بالاسعار يعني
+
+134
+00:10:20,870 --> 00:10:27,520
+هلأ مثلا ب .. بستطيع أشري مثلا ال IBM من دبيحتى
+
+135
+00:10:27,520 --> 00:10:29,660
+even the stock market .. the New York stock
+
+136
+00:10:29,660 --> 00:10:33,600
+exchange is closed then if the New York stock
+
+137
+00:10:33,600 --> 00:10:38,740
+exchange is closed I can buy and trade in Japan so
+
+138
+00:10:38,740 --> 00:10:42,120
+because most of companies listed in different
+
+139
+00:10:42,120 --> 00:10:47,020
+markets يعني مثلًا إن كان شركة بالتل الشركة
+
+140
+00:10:47,020 --> 00:10:49,580
+الإتصالات الفلسطينية كانت في عامة dual listing مع
+
+141
+00:10:49,580 --> 00:10:54,680
+دبي فكان ممكن يعمل trade في فلسطين و trade في دبي
+
+142
+00:10:55,510 --> 00:10:58,490
+فزي ما تشايفين كيف ال financial market is moving
+
+143
+00:10:58,490 --> 00:11:04,070
+according to the sunrise يعني بتمشي حسب شروق الشمس
+
+144
+00:11:04,070 --> 00:11:07,490
+عشان هيك هدول ال dealers بيقولوا ال financial
+
+145
+00:11:07,490 --> 00:11:11,570
+market is open 24 hours شغالة 24 ساعة
+
+146
+00:11:14,380 --> 00:11:17,440
+Okay فعشان هيك احنا بنحكي عن الأسواق المالية دول
+
+147
+00:11:17,440 --> 00:11:20,000
+ضروري تعرفوا حتى للناس اللي بيشتغلوا بال .. بال
+
+148
+00:11:20,000 --> 00:11:22,900
+investments they have to know what is going in
+
+149
+00:11:22,900 --> 00:11:25,380
+London Stock Exchange, what is going in Euronext,
+
+150
+00:11:25,540 --> 00:11:29,180
+in Tokyo, in .. in Nasdaq, in .. in Dubai, in
+
+151
+00:11:29,180 --> 00:11:34,400
+Cairo, in all of these countries, even Nigeria you
+
+152
+00:11:34,400 --> 00:11:38,900
+have to know حتى في نيجيرا في عندهم سوقخوّي في
+
+153
+00:11:38,900 --> 00:11:42,120
+نيجيريا و نيجيريا تنسوش انه اللي صار في
+
+154
+00:11:42,120 --> 00:11:46,380
+developments كبير صاروا ي .. اللي هو ينتجوا ثالث
+
+155
+00:11:46,380 --> 00:11:51,440
+أكبر سينما في العالم اليوم أول واحدة هوليود و
+
+156
+00:11:51,440 --> 00:11:56,760
+تانية اللي هي اللي بتاعة إنديا هوليود و بعدين
+
+157
+00:11:56,760 --> 00:12:01,900
+نيليود، نيليود فصاروا في attract for big
+
+158
+00:12:01,900 --> 00:12:05,080
+investments in نيجيريايعني صارت نيجيريا تعمل
+
+159
+00:12:05,080 --> 00:12:07,900
+attracting لل big investments و عندهم أسواق مالية
+
+160
+00:12:07,900 --> 00:12:11,160
+برضه بتطورها في South Africa، في جنوب أفريقيا و في
+
+161
+00:12:11,160 --> 00:12:16,240
+نيجيريا فعشان هيك كويس ان ال .. to take your eye
+
+162
+00:12:16,240 --> 00:12:21,260
+in all of these markets
+
+163
+00:12:21,260 --> 00:12:25,460
+ال New York .. New York Stock Exchange measures
+
+164
+00:12:25,460 --> 00:12:30,670
+and acquisitionsسوق New York صار يعمل كتير
+
+165
+00:12:30,670 --> 00:12:35,150
+managing، سيطرة لبعض الأسواق المالية و
+
+166
+00:12:35,150 --> 00:12:39,370
+acquisitions و كمان يمتلك هذه الأسواق، يعني مش بس
+
+167
+00:12:39,370 --> 00:12:44,790
+damage، كمان امتلاك لبعض الأسواقطبعا عملية ال
+
+168
+00:12:44,790 --> 00:12:48,130
+damage بتتم من خلال ال ACN أنا موضحتش معناه ال ACN
+
+169
+00:12:48,130 --> 00:12:51,450
+اللي هو Electronic Communication Networks يعني
+
+170
+00:12:51,450 --> 00:12:54,550
+عملية .. عملية الرابط الإلكتروني you don't need to
+
+171
+00:12:54,550 --> 00:12:57,010
+move the market from place to another you just
+
+172
+00:12:57,010 --> 00:13:00,850
+connect the market in a particular computer
+
+173
+00:13:00,850 --> 00:13:05,660
+networkفصاروا يستخدموا ال ECM، كمان استخدموا اللي
+
+174
+00:13:05,660 --> 00:13:08,060
+.. اللي عملوا damage مع ال American Stock
+
+175
+00:13:08,060 --> 00:13:11,080
+Exchange، most of the American Stock Exchange is
+
+176
+00:13:11,080 --> 00:13:12,960
+merging with the .. with the New York Stock
+
+177
+00:13:12,960 --> 00:13:16,200
+Exchange، كمان عملوا damage مع ال Euronext،
+
+178
+00:13:16,200 --> 00:13:18,940
+Euronext اللي حكينا فيها اللي هو أسواق أوروبا،
+
+179
+00:13:18,940 --> 00:13:20,240
+اللي بتاخدون باريس و أمستردام
+
+180
+00:13:23,830 --> 00:13:26,890
+Okay أستاذ، عملية الدمج هنا نفسها ليست ضابط
+
+181
+00:13:26,890 --> 00:13:32,050
+إلكتروني؟ لأ، الضابط الإلكتروني هي نوع أو خلّيني
+
+182
+00:13:32,050 --> 00:13:36,950
+أحكي أنه وسيلة وسالة أه okay وحتى في سوق ال ACN
+
+183
+00:13:36,950 --> 00:13:40,530
+كمان هو مدمج في داخل ال New York Stock Exchange
+
+184
+00:13:40,530 --> 00:13:44,010
+إيش يعني ال ACN؟ ال ACN هي Electronic
+
+185
+00:13:44,010 --> 00:13:48,690
+Communication Networks among the dealers بين ال
+
+186
+00:13:48,690 --> 00:13:52,290
+dealers نفسهمف New York Stock Exchange عشان انتوا
+
+187
+00:13:52,290 --> 00:13:55,110
+بعرفش I don't know you read when you go home or
+
+188
+00:13:55,110 --> 00:13:59,450
+not the New York Stock Exchange is specialist
+
+189
+00:13:59,450 --> 00:14:06,710
+markets however the the ACM is dealer markets so
+
+190
+00:14:06,710 --> 00:14:08,990
+the New York New York Stock Exchange is merging
+
+191
+00:14:08,990 --> 00:14:12,460
+with two different types of marketsthe dealer
+
+192
+00:14:12,460 --> 00:14:15,000
+market and the specialist market يعني صار في عملية
+
+193
+00:14:15,000 --> 00:14:17,840
+دمج بين نوعين مختلفين ال New York Stock Exchange
+
+194
+00:14:17,840 --> 00:14:21,400
+هو سوق .. سوق specialist و رسمنالكوا الرسمة كيف ال
+
+195
+00:14:21,400 --> 00:14:26,820
+.. إذا فاكرين لما رسمنا الرسمة هذه okay و حكينا
+
+196
+00:14:26,820 --> 00:14:30,440
+إنه في seats هنا و في dealers dealers okay و
+
+197
+00:14:30,440 --> 00:14:33,140
+بيتعاملوا مع الناس ال specialists اللي هون فصار
+
+198
+00:14:33,140 --> 00:14:37,340
+عملية دمج هذه بيسموهم ECMs لأن البربط بيناتهم هي
+
+199
+00:14:37,340 --> 00:14:39,680
+نظام ال ECMs ال ECMs اللي هو Electronic
+
+200
+00:14:39,680 --> 00:14:43,600
+Communication Networksشبكات إلكترونية و بتربط ال
+
+201
+00:14:43,600 --> 00:14:46,600
+dealers نفسهم فهذا بيسموه dealer markets و حكينا
+
+202
+00:14:46,600 --> 00:14:48,840
+هذا New York Stock Exchange specialist markets
+
+203
+00:14:48,840 --> 00:14:55,220
+فصار عليه الدمج بين السوقين صار فيه تكامل بين دور
+
+204
+00:14:55,220 --> 00:14:58,340
+ال dealers markets و بين دور ال specialist markets
+
+205
+00:14:59,650 --> 00:15:03,270
+كمان صار كمان مع ال euro next markets ال euro next
+
+206
+00:15:03,270 --> 00:15:08,210
+هو أسواق أوروبا و بالتالي صار أنه ممكن احنا يعني
+
+207
+00:15:08,210 --> 00:15:11,070
+مثلا شركة بدأ تعمل underwriting شركة بدأ تعمل
+
+208
+00:15:11,070 --> 00:15:14,710
+expansion فممكن تعمل من خلال ال euro next market و
+
+209
+00:15:14,710 --> 00:15:20,910
+من خلال ال New York Stock Exchangeفاشوفوا كام قوة
+
+210
+00:15:20,910 --> 00:15:24,710
+هذه الأسواق بتصير قبل الاندماج كام هي قوية و بعد
+
+211
+00:15:24,710 --> 00:15:31,170
+الاندماج كام هي هتكون قوية فأسواق مليارات دولارات
+
+212
+00:15:31,170 --> 00:15:36,870
+مليارات transactions تم الشغل فيهم ال nasdaq زي ما
+
+213
+00:15:36,870 --> 00:15:39,750
+حكينا ال nasdaq برضه صار في mergers and
+
+214
+00:15:39,750 --> 00:15:44,510
+acquisitionطبعا الناس ده اكتسوش هو سوق Dealers
+
+215
+00:15:44,510 --> 00:15:49,370
+برضه هو بيشبه ال ACN's لكن هو OTC over the counter
+
+216
+00:15:49,370 --> 00:15:54,770
+يعني هو OTC كمان سوق غير نظام صحيح في عملية damage
+
+217
+00:15:54,770 --> 00:15:59,430
+بين ال Instant Inet ACN في نوع من أنواع الأسواق
+
+218
+00:15:59,430 --> 00:16:04,370
+المالية اسمها Instant Instant Net و Boston Stock
+
+219
+00:16:04,370 --> 00:16:09,580
+Exchange Boston برضه من الأسواق المالية القويةكان
+
+220
+00:16:09,580 --> 00:16:13,400
+أصحى فيه دمج في Chicago، Chicago هي من أكبر
+
+221
+00:16:13,400 --> 00:16:17,240
+الأسواق في ال .. ال futures، كانت .. ألا أظن يمكن
+
+222
+00:16:17,240 --> 00:16:19,460
+ال site بتاعة ال New York Stock Exchange، Chicago
+
+223
+00:16:19,460 --> 00:16:22,640
+كانت من أولى الأسواق المالية اللي هي كانت تتعامل
+
+224
+00:16:22,640 --> 00:16:25,140
+مع ال futures و ال options و ال .. و ال forwards
+
+225
+00:16:25,140 --> 00:16:30,060
+اللي هو ال derivatives اللي هي بورصة Chicagoبرضه
+
+226
+00:16:30,060 --> 00:16:33,580
+صار في .. برضه صار في اندماج في Chicago Board of
+
+227
+00:16:33,580 --> 00:16:36,580
+Trade و New York Stock Exchange شوفوا كيف ال .. ال
+
+228
+00:16:36,580 --> 00:16:39,180
+.. ال .. احنا يعني ممكن انا I'm stressed point هنا
+
+229
+00:16:39,180 --> 00:16:43,200
+شوفوا أوروبا كان بعيدة عن United States يعني ممكن
+
+230
+00:16:43,200 --> 00:16:46,660
+نحتاج احنا eighteen hours flight تمنتاشر ساعة
+
+231
+00:16:46,660 --> 00:16:50,260
+نسافر عشان to go from the European countries to
+
+232
+00:16:50,260 --> 00:16:53,900
+the United States however we don't need to flight
+
+233
+00:16:53,900 --> 00:16:57,430
+in some places between the Arab countriesSo why
+
+234
+00:16:57,430 --> 00:17:00,530
+there is no merging and acquisitions between the
+
+235
+00:17:00,530 --> 00:17:04,330
+Arab markets or Arab stock markets؟ يعني خلاني أنا
+
+236
+00:17:04,330 --> 00:17:07,430
+برضه نطرح هذا السؤال ليش ما بيصيرش دمج رغم أنه في
+
+237
+00:17:07,430 --> 00:17:13,590
+دول بعيدة عن بعض، دول بشكل كبير ولكن بيصير فيه
+
+238
+00:17:13,590 --> 00:17:17,390
+اندماج بينهم ودول متجاورة وما بيصيرش فيه damage
+
+239
+00:17:17,390 --> 00:17:26,040
+بينهمالـ trading cost ال trading cost كيف نحسب لما
+
+240
+00:17:26,040 --> 00:17:31,300
+احنا بدنا نتاجر في السوق المالي عادة المرة الأولى
+
+241
+00:17:31,300 --> 00:17:33,360
+اللي حكيت when you are trading in the financial
+
+242
+00:17:33,360 --> 00:17:36,480
+market you have to bear the cost لازم تتحمل ال
+
+243
+00:17:36,480 --> 00:17:40,540
+cost one of these cost is the cost of trading or
+
+244
+00:17:40,540 --> 00:17:44,400
+the explicit cost of trading for instance
+
+245
+00:17:52,030 --> 00:17:55,590
+لما بيجي نحكي سعر ال bid and ask شرحنا لكوا يعنى
+
+246
+00:17:55,590 --> 00:18:00,070
+المرة التالت okay and we talk if this price 17 and
+
+247
+00:18:00,070 --> 00:18:05,230
+this price is 17.40 وحكينا from the from the
+
+248
+00:18:05,230 --> 00:18:09,170
+dealer perspective the spread is profit but from
+
+249
+00:18:09,170 --> 00:18:12,030
+the investor perspective the spread is the cost
+
+250
+00:18:12,940 --> 00:18:16,240
+يعني حكينا احنا مرة سابقة انه هاي أسعار البيع و
+
+251
+00:18:16,240 --> 00:18:19,960
+الشراء كل ما ال dealer بوسع سعر البيع و الشراء
+
+252
+00:18:19,960 --> 00:18:23,700
+الفرق بينهم بيزيد الربح تبعه لكن في ال .. في نفس
+
+253
+00:18:23,700 --> 00:18:26,980
+ال .. ال .. ال .. كل ما بيزيد ال spread كل ما ال
+
+254
+00:18:26,980 --> 00:18:32,200
+cost يعني التكاليف على ال investor بتزيد فها ال
+
+255
+00:18:32,200 --> 00:18:37,730
+cost بتحمل ال investors بتحمل نوعين من ال costاللي
+
+256
+00:18:37,730 --> 00:18:40,250
+هي ال cost of trading كاليف الإتجار نفسها ال
+
+257
+00:18:40,250 --> 00:18:44,230
+commission plus اللي هو transaction cost كلفة
+
+258
+00:18:44,230 --> 00:18:47,530
+العملية يعني الفرق بين ال bid و ال ask split يعني
+
+259
+00:18:47,530 --> 00:18:54,250
+في عنوان من ال .. من ال cost النوع
+
+260
+00:18:54,250 --> 00:18:59,030
+الأول خليناها explicit cost of trading okay اللي
+
+261
+00:18:59,030 --> 00:19:02,390
+هو cost of trading explicit بتكون واضحة و يكون
+
+262
+00:19:02,390 --> 00:19:05,890
+معروفة و ال full services versus discount
+
+263
+00:19:05,890 --> 00:19:10,130
+brokeragesاللي هو الخدمات اللي بيقدمها ال .. ال ..
+
+264
+00:19:10,130 --> 00:19:13,530
+الوسطاء الخدمات اللي بيقدمها الوسطاء بيحتاجوا
+
+265
+00:19:13,530 --> 00:19:17,950
+عمولات او اول اشياء كوميرشية تانية كل تلك العمليات
+
+266
+00:19:17,950 --> 00:19:21,790
+اللي بيجيب عليها اه هلأ explicit cost of trading
+
+267
+00:19:21,790 --> 00:19:26,310
+يعني هاي كل هذه بتكون تكاليف مثلا نحكي لما انت بدي
+
+268
+00:19:26,310 --> 00:19:30,750
+تدخل السوق ال buy و ال sell الوسيط بياخد عليها
+
+269
+00:19:30,750 --> 00:19:37,070
+commission معينOkay هذا ال commission من قيمة
+
+270
+00:19:37,070 --> 00:19:40,090
+الصفقة زي ما عندنا في سوق فلسطين أوراق المالية في
+
+271
+00:19:40,090 --> 00:19:43,870
+سوق فلسطين أوراق المالية بياخدوا commission هذا ال
+
+272
+00:19:43,870 --> 00:19:47,230
+commission مش بس لل .. لل .. لل broker كمان بتروح
+
+273
+00:19:47,230 --> 00:19:52,190
+جزء منها للسوق المالي okay بالإضافة لل spread اللي
+
+274
+00:19:52,190 --> 00:19:57,390
+حكينا فيه اللي هو الفرق بين ال bid و ال askو هنشوف
+
+275
+00:19:57,390 --> 00:20:01,510
+كمان شوية أنواع أخرى من ال cost ممكن يتحملها ل
+
+276
+00:20:01,510 --> 00:20:06,050
+trader طبعا it is implicit cost of trading هى
+
+277
+00:20:06,050 --> 00:20:10,290
+بتكون غير ظاهرة لما أنا بستخدم ال spreads بتكون
+
+278
+00:20:10,290 --> 00:20:12,570
+implicit أيش معناه implicit بتكون هي خفية
+
+279
+00:20:12,570 --> 00:20:18,450
+مابنشوفهاش يعني هلأ مثلا هنشوف لو احنا بنشتري
+
+280
+00:20:18,450 --> 00:20:23,330
+نشتري
+
+281
+00:20:23,330 --> 00:20:25,050
+مثلا سهم
+
+282
+00:20:27,200 --> 00:20:37,920
+بعدكم نفترض نفترض كان 2.5 2.55 ان ال spread كام ال
+
+283
+00:20:37,920 --> 00:20:42,620
+spread هو 0.05 مظبوط ال spread في الحالة هذه cost
+
+284
+00:20:42,620 --> 00:20:47,960
+بالنسبة لل investors ليش cost؟ لو هو اشترى اشترى
+
+285
+00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:52,720
+السهم عشتيه على 2.55 صح؟ لما بديوا يبيعوا بيبيعوا
+
+286
+00:20:52,720 --> 00:21:00,330
+على 2.5 فبيخسروا 0.5الان ال traders او ال dealers
+
+287
+00:21:00,330 --> 00:21:03,570
+ممكن يروح يوسع ال ..
+
+288
+00:21:06,820 --> 00:21:10,520
+يوسعوا ال spread فهذا implicit بيسموه يعني مش واضح
+
+289
+00:21:10,520 --> 00:21:15,320
+بيكون لل investors يمكن انتوا اللي عرفته بس ال
+
+290
+00:21:15,320 --> 00:21:17,620
+other investors they don't know about these things
+
+291
+00:21:17,620 --> 00:21:21,840
+ممكن مستخدميه مابيكون خفية و بعدين هاي بيدأس ال
+
+292
+00:21:21,840 --> 00:21:24,760
+spread واضح للكل بس في بعض الشغلات ممكن يستخدمها
+
+293
+00:21:24,760 --> 00:21:28,960
+ال dealer مابيكونش واضحة فديش صار الفرق بين اتهم
+
+294
+00:21:28,960 --> 00:21:32,720
+point 10 بنلاحظ كل ما احنا وسعنا ال spread كل ما
+
+295
+00:21:32,720 --> 00:21:36,560
+كان ال costارتفعت يعني هل ال cost مخفضة هل ال cost
+
+296
+00:21:36,560 --> 00:21:40,920
+مرتفعة فعشان هيك بيسموها implicit cost of trading
+
+297
+00:21:40,920 --> 00:21:44,000
+وزي ما احنا شرحنا المرة الفاترة لما حكينا على ال
+
+298
+00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:50,640
+.. على ال inventory حسب مستوى ال inventory بيروح
+
+299
+00:21:50,640 --> 00:21:54,140
+بي .. بيزود ال spread و بيخفض ال spread okay يعني
+
+300
+00:21:54,140 --> 00:21:58,040
+بيزود التكليف و بيخفض التكليف حتى يحافظ على limit
+
+301
+00:21:58,040 --> 00:22:05,500
+معين من ال .. من ال .. هذا هنيجي له بالتفصيلالنوع
+
+302
+00:22:05,500 --> 00:22:10,880
+اللى هنركز عليه كتير اللى هو ال margin cost اللى
+
+303
+00:22:10,880 --> 00:22:15,020
+هو buying by margin اه
+
+304
+00:22:15,020 --> 00:22:27,740
+ده اهم اشي فلو
+
+305
+00:22:27,740 --> 00:22:33,350
+احنا رجعنا هدول ال cost هدول اذا احناال .. ال
+
+306
+00:22:33,350 --> 00:22:38,690
+training costs هدول الكل لازم يتحملهم كل ال .. ال
+
+307
+00:22:38,690 --> 00:22:43,810
+investors بس في حالة ال margin سواء هاي ال
+
+308
+00:22:43,810 --> 00:22:49,750
+brokerage commission يعني عمولة ال .. الوساطة هي
+
+309
+00:22:49,750 --> 00:22:55,470
+نوع و اللي هو ال spread الفرق بين البيع والشرم في
+
+310
+00:22:55,470 --> 00:23:02,010
+شي؟ اه فال brokerage commissionأولت الوساطة لازم
+
+311
+00:23:02,010 --> 00:23:06,030
+احنا لازم ال ال brokerage services حسب نوع الوساطة
+
+312
+00:23:06,030 --> 00:23:08,490
+فيه بياخد commission و ال spread اللي هو طبعا
+
+313
+00:23:08,490 --> 00:23:09,350
+حاكينا فيه ال implicit
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/0_i7Eeu5nU0.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/0_i7Eeu5nU0.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..0643934be1771008cbbd27083ddb2a24ce9a1d02
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/0_i7Eeu5nU0.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,2251 @@
+1
+00:00:20,720 --> 00:00:23,920
+الـ .. الـ .. هاي المحاضرة الثالثة بال financial
+
+2
+00:00:23,920 --> 00:00:29,040
+environments أو الـ investment environment يعني
+
+3
+00:00:29,040 --> 00:00:33,960
+البيئة المالية فاحنا بنحكي بال separation of
+
+4
+00:00:33,960 --> 00:00:37,120
+ownership separation of ownership بتعني اللي هو
+
+5
+00:00:37,120 --> 00:00:42,640
+الفصل الإداري أو الفصل بين المستويات الإدارية و
+
+6
+00:00:42,640 --> 00:00:46,760
+just to remind you أنذكركم أن المرة الفاتة the
+
+7
+00:00:46,760 --> 00:00:51,400
+previous meeting we talked about the separation of
+
+8
+00:00:51,400 --> 00:00:57,140
+ownership الفصل في المستويات الإدارية for instance
+
+9
+00:00:57,140 --> 00:01:04,040
+عند الـ board of directors الـ board of directors is
+
+10
+00:01:04,040 --> 00:01:09,720
+being elected by the owners okay elected ثم مجلد
+
+11
+00:01:09,720 --> 00:01:15,200
+المديرين اختاروا الاختصارات الاختصارات
+
+12
+00:01:15,200 --> 00:01:25,900
+E1 E2 E3 E4 ثم الموظفين الآن باعتبار القوانين
+
+13
+00:01:25,900 --> 00:01:26,340
+الجديدة 
+
+14
+00:01:29,640 --> 00:01:35,320
+in the separation of ownership the departments or
+
+15
+00:01:35,320 --> 00:01:36,740
+let's say the board of directors should be
+
+16
+00:01:36,740 --> 00:01:39,560
+separated from the executive يعني مجلس الإدارة
+
+17
+00:01:39,560 --> 00:01:44,280
+لازم يكون منفصل عن المدراء الـ managers كمان الـ
+
+18
+00:01:44,280 --> 00:01:48,380
+managers be careful the managers shouldn't have
+
+19
+00:01:48,380 --> 00:01:52,260
+executive functions
+
+20
+00:01:52,940 --> 00:01:55,280
+مش لازم يكون عندهم executive functions هذه صارت
+
+21
+00:01:55,280 --> 00:01:59,000
+آخر شيء يعني بعد 2007 صار ضروري المدراء اللي
+
+22
+00:01:59,000 --> 00:02:02,660
+بيشاركوا في إدارة الشركة في مجلس الإدارة يعني لو
+
+23
+00:02:02,660 --> 00:02:06,600
+كان عندي هنا مدراء managers هدول الـ managers
+
+24
+00:02:06,600 --> 00:02:09,320
+should be separated from the executives مش لازم
+
+25
+00:02:09,320 --> 00:02:13,500
+يدخلوا في إدارة الشركة بيحطوا هم بس الـ strategies
+
+26
+00:02:13,500 --> 00:02:19,040
+بيحطوا الـ strategias okay وما بيدخلوش في المهمة
+
+27
+00:02:19,040 --> 00:02:25,270
+التنفيذية للشركة ليش؟ عشان حتى المدراء نفسهم لما
+
+28
+00:02:25,270 --> 00:02:28,730
+بيحطوا الـ strategies و يطلبوا من الـ executive
+
+29
+00:02:28,730 --> 00:02:33,150
+المدراء التنفيذي ينفذوا هذه يظل المدراء دورهم دور
+
+30
+00:02:33,150 --> 00:02:37,850
+رقابي على الـ executives و إلا لو كانوا تدخلوا فيها
+
+31
+00:02:37,850 --> 00:02:41,550
+فلو كان في خطأ ممكن يخبوه so this is why should be
+
+32
+00:02:41,550 --> 00:02:46,650
+separation between the board of directors and the
+
+33
+00:02:46,650 --> 00:02:50,490
+executives and in the same vein في نفس الطريقة
+
+34
+00:02:50,490 --> 00:02:54,370
+الناس الموجودين في الـ board of directors مش لازم
+
+35
+00:02:54,370 --> 00:03:01,750
+يتدخلوا في أعمال المدراء okay exactly يعني هم they
+
+36
+00:03:01,750 --> 00:03:04,050
+are setting the strategies بيحطوا الـ strategies
+
+37
+00:03:04,050 --> 00:03:07,910
+and they are observing what the executive doing
+
+38
+00:03:07,910 --> 00:03:12,750
+يعني هم بيحطوا بيطلعوا بيشوفوا بيراقبوا إيش الـ
+
+39
+00:03:12,750 --> 00:03:17,150
+executive بيسووا المدراء التنفيذيين and in the same
+
+40
+00:03:17,150 --> 00:03:20,950
+.. in the same way كمان هدول الـ executives هدول
+
+41
+00:03:20,950 --> 00:03:24,490
+الناس الموجودين بالـ .. بالمديريات التنفيذية مهمتهم
+
+42
+00:03:24,490 --> 00:03:29,890
+تنفيذ العمل حسب what is the strategy is saying حسب
+
+43
+00:03:29,890 --> 00:03:33,630
+الاستراتيجية شو بتحكي يعني بدكم هم عملهم مرتبط
+
+44
+00:03:33,630 --> 00:03:36,970
+بالاستراتيجية مابتدخلش الـ board of directors
+
+45
+00:03:36,970 --> 00:03:40,650
+بشغلهم okay كمان هم مابتدخلوا في الـ .. في الـ board
+
+46
+00:03:40,650 --> 00:03:43,270
+of directors الـ board of directors هم أعضاء مجلس
+
+47
+00:03:43,270 --> 00:03:44,470
+الإدارة did you write it
+
+48
+00:03:50,700 --> 00:03:54,840
+الـ board of directors هم أعضاء مجلس إدارة كمان مرة
+
+49
+00:03:54,840 --> 00:03:59,020
+هدول أعضاء مجلس إدارة بس بيحطوا الاستراتيجيات they
+
+50
+00:03:59,020 --> 00:04:02,920
+are setting the headlines  الخطوط العامة للشركة
+
+51
+00:04:02,920 --> 00:04:07,720
+okay و بعدين they send it off to the executives
+
+52
+00:04:07,720 --> 00:04:10,560
+المدراء التنفيذيين المدراء التنفيذيين ما عليهم إلا
+
+53
+00:04:10,560 --> 00:04:12,740
+يقوموا بتنفيذ هذه المهم okay
+
+54
+00:04:15,010 --> 00:04:19,370
+لكن شو اللي صار؟ اللي صار أنه المدراء التنفيذيين الـ
+
+55
+00:04:19,370 --> 00:04:24,030
+executives or the executive managers صاروا they
+
+56
+00:04:24,030 --> 00:04:26,730
+prefer their personal objectives rather than their
+
+57
+00:04:26,730 --> 00:04:31,750
+strategies صاروا يفضلوا مصالحهم الشخصية على مصالح
+
+58
+00:04:31,750 --> 00:04:37,750
+الشركة okay so what is the solution? the corporate
+
+59
+00:04:37,750 --> 00:04:40,920
+governance الـ .. الـ .. الحل هو وجود الـ corporate
+
+60
+00:04:40,920 --> 00:04:44,340
+governance اللي هو الحوكمة اللي احنا بنحكي فيها
+
+61
+00:04:44,340 --> 00:04:49,360
+بالـ corporate governance طيب شو الـ corporate
+
+62
+00:04:49,360 --> 00:04:53,540
+governance؟ what it means الحوكمة؟ اه تفضلوا
+
+63
+00:04:53,540 --> 00:05:00,320
+الحوكمة شو معناها؟ what it means governance؟ يارا
+
+64
+00:05:00,320 --> 00:05:05,480
+نترك الإجابة لكم اه تفضلوا احكي بالعربي
+
+65
+00:05:10,410 --> 00:05:15,210
+صح؟ صح؟ يعني هي عبارة عن الـ rules, regulations
+
+66
+00:05:15,210 --> 00:05:19,490
+that organize the relationship between the .. the
+
+67
+00:05:19,490 --> 00:05:24,010
+owners and the .. the executives or the board of
+
+68
+00:05:24,010 --> 00:05:28,650
+directors مين عنده كمان شغلة؟ okay اتفضلي
+
+69
+00:05:34,440 --> 00:05:36,800
+صحيح؟ و أيضا هي من القوانين اللي تقلد المعايشة
+
+70
+00:05:36,800 --> 00:05:41,220
+العداد البارية لكتير من المستخدمين. Okay صح okay The
+
+71
+00:05:41,220 --> 00:05:45,220
+set of laws and decisions to achieving quality and
+
+72
+00:05:45,220 --> 00:05:47,900
+excellence in performance by selecting the
+
+73
+00:05:47,900 --> 00:05:50,960
+operation method to achieve the plans and
+
+74
+00:05:50,960 --> 00:05:55,400
+objectives Okay so according to your definition it
+
+75
+00:05:55,400 --> 00:05:59,280
+means the executives are free to select the
+
+76
+00:05:59,280 --> 00:06:04,720
+policies or the how to transfer the transactions
+
+77
+00:06:04,720 --> 00:06:09,660
+into strategies يعني خلينا بي .. إيش اللي بيصير؟
+
+78
+00:06:09,660 --> 00:06:14,260
+هدول بيحطوا الـ strategies okay هدول اللي هو الـ
+
+79
+00:06:14,260 --> 00:06:18,220
+executives they translate strategies into actions
+
+80
+00:06:19,180 --> 00:06:22,560
+يعني بيحولوا الـ استراتيجيات إلى أفعال okay into
+
+81
+00:06:22,560 --> 00:06:27,540
+actions these actions should be linked with the
+
+82
+00:06:27,540 --> 00:06:32,080
+strategy لازم يكون مرتبطة بالاستراتيجية Okay for
+
+83
+00:06:32,080 --> 00:06:35,640
+instance على سبيل المثال the main business
+
+84
+00:06:35,640 --> 00:06:40,020
+strategy of the firm is to maximize the
+
+85
+00:06:40,020 --> 00:06:45,020
+shareholder firms or to maximize the firm's value
+
+86
+00:06:45,020 --> 00:06:48,500
+يعني الاستراتيجية الأساسية اللي هو maximize firm
+
+87
+00:06:48,500 --> 00:06:54,790
+value يعني تعظيم قيمة المنشأة تعظيم قيمة المنشأة
+
+88
+00:06:54,790 --> 00:06:58,370
+هذا الاستراتيجية الأساسية now the executive asking
+
+89
+00:06:58,370 --> 00:07:03,030
+themselves what are the actions should be taken to
+
+90
+00:07:03,030 --> 00:07:08,890
+translate the value يعني ما هي الوسائل اللي احنا
+
+91
+00:07:08,890 --> 00:07:12,570
+لازم نستخدمها عشان حتى نقوم بتحقيق الاستراتيجية
+
+92
+00:07:12,570 --> 00:07:18,170
+okay this is a big question okay for instance if
+
+93
+00:07:18,170 --> 00:07:23,440
+we talk about apple and you know apple شركة apple
+
+94
+00:07:23,440 --> 00:07:28,920
+so the apple the strategy of apple is to maximize
+
+95
+00:07:28,920 --> 00:07:35,600
+the fan value now this question is sent off to the
+
+96
+00:07:35,600 --> 00:07:40,260
+executives  نبعت للـ executive and the executives
+
+97
+00:07:40,260 --> 00:07:46,620
+sets the actions هم دورهم يشتغلوا طيب إيش هيسوي الـ
+
+98
+00:07:46,620 --> 00:07:49,840
+executive السؤال الكبير ان هم بدهم يعزموا الـ fan
+
+99
+00:07:49,840 --> 00:07:54,590
+value طيب إيش أبل لازم تسوي؟ الـ managers بتاعون
+
+100
+00:07:54,590 --> 00:07:57,430
+أبل، شو لازم يعملوا؟ المدراء التنفيذيين، عشان
+
+101
+00:07:57,430 --> 00:08:01,970
+يحققوا هذا الهدف؟ حاولوا يعملوا .. okay how؟ خلينا
+
+102
+00:08:01,970 --> 00:08:08,510
+.. okay okay they follow the rules of the board of
+
+103
+00:08:08,510 --> 00:08:11,190
+directors but how they transfer these into
+
+104
+00:08:11,190 --> 00:08:14,910
+actions؟ يعني هل عملوا مثلًا الـ iPhone 4 و الـ
+
+105
+00:08:14,910 --> 00:08:19,010
+iPhone 5؟ شو الجديد اللي صار بالـ .. okay إذا أنت
+
+106
+00:08:19,010 --> 00:08:25,280
+competition competes the word regarding the product
+
+107
+00:08:25,280 --> 00:08:29,180
+of the iPhone يعني مثلًا بدهم يضيفوا يعملوا
+
+108
+00:08:29,180 --> 00:08:32,960
+developments على الـ iPhone هذا الـ developments
+
+109
+00:08:32,960 --> 00:08:35,880
+بيكون هذا الـ developments يعني على مستوى العالم
+
+110
+00:08:35,880 --> 00:08:40,060
+بحيث كل ما زادوا الـ developments تبعت الـ iPhone
+
+111
+00:08:40,060 --> 00:08:44,600
+اللي بيصير الـ customer بيزيد شراءه لهذه الـ iPhones
+
+112
+00:08:44,600 --> 00:08:50,150
+هتزيد الأرباح هتصير زيادة من الـ maximize value Okay
+
+113
+00:08:50,150 --> 00:08:53,870
+فهم بيسيروا المهندسين الموجودين هنا و الـ marketing
+
+114
+00:08:53,870 --> 00:08:56,990
+و كلهم بيشتغلوا مع بعض how to improve the quality
+
+115
+00:08:56,990 --> 00:09:01,630
+and the services of the iphone 5 تمام إيش الـ
+
+116
+00:09:01,630 --> 00:09:04,630
+services إيش الـ facilities كلها فبالتالي الـ board
+
+117
+00:09:04,630 --> 00:09:08,910
+of directors بس حطوا general strategies وضل هدول
+
+118
+00:09:08,910 --> 00:09:13,850
+دورهم how to do this كيف أن هم يشتغلوا و يحققوا
+
+119
+00:09:13,850 --> 00:09:19,790
+النتائج بتاعة الـ strategies هل الـ strategy .. هدول
+
+120
+00:09:19,790 --> 00:09:23,850
+executives بعد ما يحققوا هاي الأهداف الـ objectives
+
+121
+00:09:23,850 --> 00:09:28,830
+بيجي دول الـ board of directors to see .. بيشوفوا
+
+122
+00:09:28,830 --> 00:09:33,350
+هل هدول حققوا what we are saying or not؟ هل حققوا
+
+123
+00:09:33,350 --> 00:09:37,980
+إيش اللي احنا بنحكي فيه ولا ماحققوش؟ فصار دورهم الـ
+
+124
+00:09:37,980 --> 00:09:42,920
+board of directors is like auditing يتأكدوا من أن
+
+125
+00:09:42,920 --> 00:09:49,680
+الـ executives بيشتغلوا حسب ما يحتاج الـ time إيش
+
+126
+00:09:49,680 --> 00:09:53,620
+كمان له علاقة ال corporate governance أنت كنت بدك
+
+127
+00:09:53,620 --> 00:09:58,780
+تحكي okay it is the act of governing is related to
+
+128
+00:09:58,780 --> 00:10:05,630
+decision that define expectations توقعات يعني it
+
+129
+00:10:05,630 --> 00:10:09,090
+consists of either a separate process or part
+
+130
+00:10:09,090 --> 00:10:13,270
+of the decision making or leadership process okay
+
+131
+00:10:13,270 --> 00:10:16,310
+so هي زي ما اتفضلتها أنه اللي بنعمل separation في
+
+132
+00:10:16,310 --> 00:10:19,610
+ال leadership أن يكون هدول ال board of directors
+
+133
+00:10:19,610 --> 00:10:22,790
+هم بيحددوا بيحطوا ال strategies and they are
+
+134
+00:10:22,790 --> 00:10:25,410
+responsible for this وبعدين ال leadership
+
+135
+00:10:25,410 --> 00:10:31,010
+الموجودين في ال executive level just to focus on
+
+136
+00:10:31,010 --> 00:10:35,040
+leading the business Okay how we can do the
+
+137
+00:10:35,040 --> 00:10:39,660
+corporate governance it should be transparency you
+
+138
+00:10:39,660 --> 00:10:42,340
+know what it means transparency transparency it
+
+139
+00:10:42,340 --> 00:10:50,640
+means الوضوح الشفافية الشفافية يعني مثلا ال board
+
+140
+00:10:50,640 --> 00:10:54,040
+of directors يكون واضحين الاستراتيجية تبعتهم واضحة
+
+141
+00:10:54,040 --> 00:10:58,680
+ال actions بتاعة ال executives لازم تكون واضحة
+
+142
+00:10:58,680 --> 00:11:04,250
+فبسموها transparency سمعتوها transparency فمن أحد
+
+143
+00:11:04,250 --> 00:11:08,270
+مبادئ ال corporate governance أنه ال executives هم
+
+144
+00:11:08,270 --> 00:11:14,670
+بنفذوا الاستراتيجيات تكون هذه الاستراتيجيات واضحة
+
+145
+00:11:14,670 --> 00:11:18,730
+and linked with these strategies تكون فيها وضوح مش
+
+146
+00:11:18,730 --> 00:11:24,090
+فيها غموض okay why because sometimes executives
+
+147
+00:11:24,090 --> 00:11:30,010
+they try to achieve their own objectives بدهم
+
+148
+00:11:30,010 --> 00:11:33,550
+يحققوا أهدافهم they should declare that these
+
+149
+00:11:33,550 --> 00:11:37,050
+objectives are linked with the strategies لازم
+
+150
+00:11:37,050 --> 00:11:40,930
+تكونوا واضحين أن هذه الأهداف هي تابعة لستراتيجية
+
+151
+00:11:40,930 --> 00:11:47,470
+المنشأة okay فهذه شغلة اسمها transparency because
+
+152
+00:11:47,470 --> 00:11:51,830
+the failure of applying transparency عارفين شو بقى
+
+153
+00:11:51,830 --> 00:11:53,870
+because of the failure of applying transparency
+
+154
+00:11:53,870 --> 00:11:58,130
+بسبب أنهم ما فيش لها الشركات المتقدمة الشركات
+
+155
+00:11:58,130 --> 00:12:00,590
+الأوروبية والأمريكية ما فيش لتقديم ال transparency
+
+156
+00:12:00,590 --> 00:12:06,590
+تطبيقها صار في إفلاس لكتير شركات okay أهم هذه
+
+157
+00:12:06,590 --> 00:12:10,470
+الشركات كانت WorldCom okay or worldwide company
+
+158
+00:12:10,470 --> 00:12:15,590
+ثاني أهم شركة في العالم أكبر شركة كانت تنتج الطاقة
+
+159
+00:12:15,590 --> 00:12:20,630
+في العالم هي شركة Enron وأنا ب .. يعني I recommend
+
+160
+00:12:20,630 --> 00:12:28,110
+you to read why Enron فشلت؟ ليش Enron خسرت؟ خسرت
+
+161
+00:12:28,110 --> 00:12:30,650
+Enron بسبب they .. they failed to apply the
+
+162
+00:12:30,650 --> 00:12:34,250
+corporate governance خسرت لأنهم ما طبقوش ال
+
+163
+00:12:34,250 --> 00:12:37,930
+corporate governance طبعا أنا طلبت منكم تقرأوا
+
+164
+00:12:37,930 --> 00:12:46,510
+الكلام هذا، في حد عرف ليش Enron خسرت؟ ليش؟ في صفحة
+
+165
+00:12:46,510 --> 00:12:53,060
+ثمانية in page eight أنا حكيت أنهم فشلوا في تطبيق
+
+166
+00:12:53,060 --> 00:12:56,380
+ال corporate governance how they fail to apply
+
+167
+00:12:56,380 --> 00:12:57,260
+corporate governance
+
+168
+00:13:02,260 --> 00:13:06,120
+حكينا من أحد مبادئ ال transparency أحد مبادئ ال ..
+
+169
+00:13:06,120 --> 00:13:09,880
+ال .. ال corporate governance ال transparency وكمان
+
+170
+00:13:09,880 --> 00:13:12,240
+اللي هو separation of the ownership و
+
+171
+00:13:12,240 --> 00:13:15,400
+separation in the .. in the management ليش ال
+
+172
+00:13:15,400 --> 00:13:20,380
+Enron ما طبقوش ال .. ال .. ال governance شريك صحيح
+
+173
+00:13:20,380 --> 00:13:23,480
+وبالتالي they .. they .. they lose a lot of money
+
+174
+00:13:23,480 --> 00:13:27,400
+عارفين كم خسائر ال Enron؟ كم؟ خسائر شركة Enron
+
+175
+00:13:27,400 --> 00:13:30,540
+مجموعة ما تنفقه الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية على
+
+176
+00:13:30,540 --> 00:13:36,570
+عالم الثالث كله شفتوا قداش؟ شركة Enrol لوحدها لما
+
+177
+00:13:36,570 --> 00:13:40,270
+خسرت لما صار عندهم drop خسرت بمجموع ما تنفقه
+
+178
+00:13:40,270 --> 00:13:44,550
+الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية على عالم الثالث كله طيب
+
+179
+00:13:44,550 --> 00:13:50,330
+السبب الرئيسي لخسرتهم أحد أهم مبادئ ال corporate
+
+180
+00:13:50,330 --> 00:13:53,630
+governance لازم يكون في شغلة اسمها auditing عارفين
+
+181
+00:13:53,630 --> 00:14:01,210
+شو معنى auditing؟ رقابة okay الرقابة نوعين yes we
+
+182
+00:14:01,210 --> 00:14:03,510
+have internal auditing and we have external
+
+183
+00:14:03,510 --> 00:14:08,810
+auditing fine so the internal auditors they are
+
+184
+00:14:08,810 --> 00:14:12,910
+manipulating in the financial statements كانوا
+
+185
+00:14:12,910 --> 00:14:17,930
+يتلاعبوا في إيش في ال financial statements and
+
+186
+00:14:17,930 --> 00:14:22,570
+they hire a consultations or a consultants from a
+
+187
+00:14:22,570 --> 00:14:25,550
+particular company let's say Merrill Lynch
+
+188
+00:14:28,340 --> 00:14:31,520
+شركة Merrill Lynch شركة Merrill Lynch هي أكبر من
+
+189
+00:14:31,520 --> 00:14:38,740
+أكبر الشركات المالية في العالم وكانوا عاملين اتفاق
+
+190
+00:14:38,740 --> 00:14:46,420
+مع Anderson شركة Anderson كانت
+
+191
+00:14:46,420 --> 00:14:55,400
+متفقة مع شركة Enron يقدموا شغلتين احفظوهم Anderson
+
+192
+00:14:56,920 --> 00:15:01,360
+Anderson تدقيق .. تدقيق محاسبي okay يخدموا شغلتين
+
+193
+00:15:01,360 --> 00:15:06,100
+consultation and
+
+194
+00:15:06,100 --> 00:15:09,940
+auditing consultation
+
+195
+00:15:09,940 --> 00:15:16,660
+إيش معناها استشارات يخدموهم استشارات okay وفي نفس
+
+196
+00:15:16,660 --> 00:15:21,660
+الوقت إيش يقدمولهم auditing رقابة طب بنفع إيش
+
+197
+00:15:21,660 --> 00:15:25,590
+رأيكم؟ يعني بينفع أنه أنا أعطيك استشارات وفي نفس
+
+198
+00:15:25,590 --> 00:15:30,670
+الوقت أنه أنا أعمل رقابة عليك؟ إذا كان في خطأ
+
+199
+00:15:30,670 --> 00:15:35,110
+بيكون خطأ من وين؟ من ال consultation بالظبط فإذا
+
+200
+00:15:35,110 --> 00:15:37,810
+كان في خطأ فإيش تسوي الشركة Anderson؟ Anderson
+
+201
+00:15:37,810 --> 00:15:43,610
+تروح تغطي على الأخطاء صارت الأخطاء تكبر تكبر لما
+
+202
+00:15:43,610 --> 00:15:46,890
+صار فيه فياليار كبير فلما أذيت ال corporate
+
+203
+00:15:46,890 --> 00:15:55,760
+governance حكيتلهم لازم يكون في separation فصل بين
+
+204
+00:15:55,760 --> 00:16:00,500
+ال auditing services وبين ال consultation services
+
+205
+00:16:00,500 --> 00:16:05,040
+يعني
+
+206
+00:16:05,040 --> 00:16:09,180
+الشركة اللي بتعمل auditing هي شركة غير اللي بتعمل
+
+207
+00:16:09,180 --> 00:16:14,000
+consultation وصنعوا قانون هذا القانون كتير مهم
+
+208
+00:16:14,000 --> 00:16:17,080
+القانون
+
+209
+00:16:17,080 --> 00:16:22,360
+المهم اللي عملوه اللي هو Sarbanes-Oxley Act
+
+210
+00:16:25,430 --> 00:16:29,910
+Sarbanes Oxley Act اللي هي بيحكي أن it should be
+
+211
+00:16:29,910 --> 00:16:36,190
+separated between the consultancy services and the
+
+212
+00:16:36,190 --> 00:16:40,330
+auditing services يعني الخدمات بتاعة التدقيق لازم
+
+213
+00:16:40,330 --> 00:16:43,490
+تنفصل عن خدمات الاستشارات المالية والفنية و
+
+214
+00:16:43,490 --> 00:16:46,950
+الإدارية لأنه ما بنفع أنه أنا في نفس اللحظة أقدم
+
+215
+00:16:46,950 --> 00:16:49,290
+خدمات استشارية وفي نفس اللحظة أعمل رقابة على
+
+216
+00:16:49,290 --> 00:16:55,120
+الشركة بيصير إيش publications بظبطش طبعا هدول كانوا
+
+217
+00:16:55,120 --> 00:16:57,200
+هم ال .. ال Arthur Anderson هم المسؤولين عن
+
+218
+00:16:57,200 --> 00:17:00,540
+المشكلة هذه بتتعاون مع مين؟ بتتعاون مع التدقيق
+
+219
+00:17:00,540 --> 00:17:03,260
+الداخلي في الشركة وصاروا يتلعبوا في الحسابات و
+
+220
+00:17:03,260 --> 00:17:08,320
+يظهروها حسابات جيدة لما بدأت تصير خسائر في هذه
+
+221
+00:17:08,320 --> 00:17:12,720
+الشركة okay؟ الكويس أنه كتير تقرأوا عن هذا ال ..
+
+222
+00:17:12,720 --> 00:17:17,140
+تجربة .. تجربة Enron و .. و .. و السبب أنه صار في
+
+223
+00:17:17,140 --> 00:17:21,680
+stress on the corporate governance طبعا؟ في حد
+
+224
+00:17:21,680 --> 00:17:22,280
+عنده سؤال؟
+
+225
+00:17:25,450 --> 00:17:28,450
+واضح corporate governance معروف إيش معناها
+
+226
+00:17:28,450 --> 00:17:33,190
+corporate ethics corporate ethics اللي هو أخلاقية
+
+227
+00:17:33,190 --> 00:17:42,630
+المهنة اللي هو كيف تطبق أخلاقية المهنة مين
+
+228
+00:17:42,630 --> 00:17:45,350
+يعطيلي أنثى على تطبيق أخلاقية المهنة for instance
+
+229
+00:17:45,350 --> 00:17:46,530
+corporate ethics
+
+230
+00:17:54,990 --> 00:17:59,870
+transparency .. transparency okay ethics يعني مثلا
+
+231
+00:17:59,870 --> 00:18:08,130
+لو شركة من الشركات كان عندي أنا ال .. ال executive
+
+232
+00:18:08,130 --> 00:18:12,510
+.. ال executives هتقبل .. أنا ما بديش واحد منهم ال
+
+233
+00:18:12,510 --> 00:18:19,830
+executive و .. و في executive A is .. is highly
+
+234
+00:18:19,830 --> 00:18:25,270
+activated و executive B ما عنده نشاط فمن ناحية
+
+235
+00:18:25,270 --> 00:18:30,550
+ethics أنه هذا is promoted and this .. the .. the
+
+236
+00:18:30,550 --> 00:18:35,450
+company may asking this to improve his skills يعني
+
+237
+00:18:35,450 --> 00:18:38,150
+من الطبيعي أن أكون في عندي .. لو عندي مديرين في
+
+238
+00:18:38,150 --> 00:18:41,470
+الشركة، مدير بيشتغل منيح ومدير بيشتغلش منيح، فمن
+
+239
+00:18:41,470 --> 00:18:45,850
+الغلط أنه أنا أشجع المدير اللي .. اللي ما بيشتغل،
+
+240
+00:18:45,850 --> 00:18:49,090
+فلازم يكون في عندي وضوح، لازم يكون عندي ethics،
+
+241
+00:18:49,090 --> 00:18:52,790
+علاقات ال ethics في الشركة، أخلاقيات المهنة بتتطلب
+
+242
+00:18:52,790 --> 00:18:58,880
+أن أنا أكون fair مع ال executives كمان من أخلاقية
+
+243
+00:18:58,880 --> 00:19:02,380
+المهنة if they .. the executives doing well إذا
+
+244
+00:19:02,380 --> 00:19:05,620
+كانوا عملوا شغلات للمنشأة منيحة وقد إيه I should
+
+245
+00:19:05,620 --> 00:19:09,260
+compensate them لازم أنا إيش؟ أعملهم compensation
+
+246
+00:19:09,260 --> 00:19:11,980
+كيف ال compensation؟ ال compensation ممكن using
+
+247
+00:19:11,980 --> 00:19:16,400
+the option rights option rights معناها أنه أنا
+
+248
+00:19:16,400 --> 00:19:21,180
+أخليهم يلهم حقوق لشراء السهم في الشركة أكيد
+
+249
+00:19:21,180 --> 00:19:26,520
+قرأتوها بال .. بالكتاب اللي اسمها option rights
+
+250
+00:19:28,120 --> 00:19:33,440
+option rights option rights تعني لو كان سعر مثلا
+
+251
+00:19:33,440 --> 00:19:37,900
+بالتل، عارفين شركة بالتل؟ شركة الاتصالات، لو كان
+
+252
+00:19:37,900 --> 00:19:44,740
+سعرها مثلا Okay ستة و نص دولار وكان عندي مدير حقق
+
+253
+00:19:44,740 --> 00:19:49,700
+نتائج غير طبيعية لأنه ناشط وبيشتغلوا منيح و كذا
+
+254
+00:19:49,700 --> 00:19:52,960
+فكويس من ال ethics انه انا ايش اعمل له compensation
+
+255
+00:19:52,960 --> 00:19:56,980
+يعني اشجعه فبنشجعه عن طريق شغل اسمه option rights
+
+256
+00:19:56,980 --> 00:20:01,550
+ال option rights بعدين بحكي للمدير okay ال price
+
+257
+00:20:01,550 --> 00:20:08,950
+now is 6.5 احنا هنعطيك right is option right to
+
+258
+00:20:08,950 --> 00:20:14,190
+buy this stock at two dollar نعطيك حق تشتري هذا
+
+259
+00:20:14,190 --> 00:20:18,430
+السهم ب two dollar كويس يعني هو اصلا لو بدو يدفع
+
+260
+00:20:18,430 --> 00:20:24,330
+two dollar هيكون ربحان كام four and a half أربعة و
+
+261
+00:20:24,330 --> 00:20:31,610
+نص so he has a right to sell his option عارفين كلام
+
+262
+00:20:31,610 --> 00:20:34,990
+هذا بال finance؟ he has a right to sell his option
+
+263
+00:20:34,990 --> 00:20:38,070
+يعني مثلا لو إجت الجامعة الإسلامية حكتله حكت
+
+264
+00:20:38,070 --> 00:20:43,110
+للمدرسين معكم حق تشتريوا هذا ال laptop حق تشتريوا
+
+265
+00:20:43,110 --> 00:20:49,400
+ال laptop هذا ب 100 دولار كام؟ 100 دولار حقوا 500
+
+266
+00:20:49,400 --> 00:20:53,480
+دولار طيب في ناس انا عندي laptop I don't need this
+
+267
+00:20:53,480 --> 00:21:00,120
+فاش بسوي I use my right to sell the laptop يعني
+
+268
+00:21:00,120 --> 00:21:02,100
+انا بستخدم حقي في بيع ال laptop
+
+269
+00:21:05,180 --> 00:21:08,900
+أحد أي أحد في السوق موجود موجودين option rights
+
+270
+00:21:08,900 --> 00:21:11,940
+موجودة في السوق المالي فببيع ال laptop سعره في ال
+
+271
+00:21:11,940 --> 00:21:15,240
+market خمس مائة دولار أنا معايا option rights بمية
+
+272
+00:21:15,240 --> 00:21:19,680
+دولار أشتريه فأنا باخد الفرق بينهم اللي هو four
+
+273
+00:21:19,680 --> 00:21:23,060
+hundred dollar أو الحل الآخر بدفع المية دولار و
+
+274
+00:21:23,060 --> 00:21:25,540
+باخد السهم أو الخمس مائة دولار أو ال laptop أو
+
+275
+00:21:25,540 --> 00:21:30,330
+الخمس مائة دولار هي بيسموها إيش option rights طبعا
+
+276
+00:21:30,330 --> 00:21:33,890
+عدم تطبيق هذه الأمور وعدم تطبيق ال corporate
+
+277
+00:21:33,890 --> 00:21:38,090
+governance عملت كتير scandals شايفين هذه scandals
+
+278
+00:21:38,090 --> 00:21:41,710
+examples of scandals من ال .. اللي بيسموها الفضائح
+
+279
+00:21:41,710 --> 00:21:47,190
+الإدارية والفضائح المحاسبية يعني مش بس إنا إحنا
+
+280
+00:21:47,190 --> 00:21:49,950
+موجودة كمان في أوروبا وفي أمريكا صار عندهم فضائح
+
+281
+00:21:49,950 --> 00:21:56,770
+كبيرة وكلفت الشركات مبالغ ضخمة حتى ي .. يعالجوا
+
+282
+00:21:56,770 --> 00:22:01,630
+هذه المواضيع وبالأخير أنه صار في tightness in the
+
+283
+00:22:01,630 --> 00:22:06,730
+applying the corporate governance صار في تشدد في
+
+284
+00:22:06,730 --> 00:22:09,130
+تطبيق ال corporate governance وفي تطبيق ال ethics
+
+285
+00:22:09,130 --> 00:22:12,470
+في تطبيق إيش ال ethics سنعطيكم مثال على ال ethics
+
+286
+00:22:13,970 --> 00:22:17,510
+في ال ethics مثلا اللي بتتطبق في الشركات لو احنا
+
+287
+00:22:17,510 --> 00:22:20,650
+عندنا two managers هذه صارت جديدة في أوروبا يعني
+
+288
+00:22:20,650 --> 00:22:24,430
+2011 2012 لو عندنا two managers جايين بدهم يتقدموا
+
+289
+00:22:24,430 --> 00:22:28,030
+للشركة ب .. ب .. بأعمال واحد is from the middle
+
+290
+00:22:28,030 --> 00:22:32,510
+east and one is American واحد من الشرق الأوسط و
+
+291
+00:22:32,510 --> 00:22:35,890
+واحد من أمريكا فهم إيش هيفضله؟ هيفضله من بتاع
+
+292
+00:22:35,890 --> 00:22:39,210
+الولايات .. ال united states ف according to the
+
+293
+00:22:39,210 --> 00:22:43,770
+ethical codes احفظوها ethical codes ethical code
+
+294
+00:22:43,770 --> 00:22:48,090
+ethical
+
+295
+00:22:48,090 --> 00:22:53,070
+code ال ethical code هي ال .. ال .. ال .. المفاهيم
+
+296
+00:22:53,070 --> 00:22:57,110
+الأخلاقية في الشركات it suppose there is no
+
+297
+00:22:57,110 --> 00:23:00,090
+differentiation between people from the united
+
+298
+00:23:00,090 --> 00:23:03,170
+states and people from the middle east مافيش
+
+299
+00:23:03,170 --> 00:23:07,970
+تفارقة okay it depends on their quality or in
+
+300
+00:23:07,970 --> 00:23:10,490
+their qualifications طيب نشوف عندنا مثلا في
+
+301
+00:23:10,490 --> 00:23:16,090
+الشركات لو كان تقدم رجل أو ولاده أو بنته to the
+
+302
+00:23:16,090 --> 00:23:18,830
+same function and both of them both of them have
+
+303
+00:23:18,830 --> 00:23:22,170
+the same qualifications which they prefer ladies
+
+304
+00:23:22,170 --> 00:23:29,100
+or men we don't know so if they prefer men over
+
+305
+00:23:29,100 --> 00:23:33,940
+ladies it means this is unethical behavior هذا إشي
+
+306
+00:23:33,940 --> 00:23:38,080
+غير أخلاقي okay another example if some people
+
+307
+00:23:38,080 --> 00:23:41,480
+living in a particular place and other people they
+
+308
+00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:44,980
+live in another place and the big manager is
+
+309
+00:23:44,980 --> 00:23:50,000
+living nearby one of them so he or she do prefer
+
+310
+00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:54,320
+another one this is against to the ethics So this
+
+311
+00:23:54,320 --> 00:23:57,340
+is ethical codes, this is why in some regulations
+
+312
+00:23:57,340 --> 00:24:00,900
+when you applying your forms they don't need you
+
+313
+00:24:00,900 --> 00:24:04,340
+to write down specific details about your .. your
+
+314
+00:24:04,340 --> 00:24:07,460
+.. your life or about your personal things يعني في
+
+315
+00:24:07,460 --> 00:24:11,640
+بعض الحالات الممكن ما يطلبوش تكتب تب اسمك تكتب اسمك
+
+316
+00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:15,800
+بالطلب لكن لما تروح للجنة اللي بدها تقابلك انه
+
+317
+00:24:15,800 --> 00:24:20,560
+بيعطوا رقم للطلب ال ethnicity عارفين شو معنى ال
+
+318
+00:24:20,560 --> 00:24:24,020
+ethnicity اللي العقيدة تبعتك your language وال
+
+319
+00:24:24,020 --> 00:24:28,100
+religious they disappear this كلها بيخفوها و
+
+320
+00:24:28,100 --> 00:24:33,420
+بيظهروا بس ال qualifications okay بعد ما يعملوا
+
+321
+00:24:33,420 --> 00:24:35,440
+filtering بتروح على ال interview وال interview
+
+322
+00:24:35,440 --> 00:24:38,640
+they just concern of your qualifications if we
+
+323
+00:24:38,640 --> 00:24:42,610
+don't apply qualifications it means we are breaking
+
+324
+00:24:42,610 --> 00:24:50,610
+or invading the ethical codes احنا بنعمل يعني خرق
+
+325
+00:24:50,610 --> 00:24:58,170
+وكسر لأخلاقية المهنة okay ف .. هذا السبب اللي ..
+
+326
+00:24:58,170 --> 00:25:03,010
+حتى آخر .. آخر .. آخر قضية صارت في فرنسا في هذا
+
+327
+00:25:03,010 --> 00:25:09,170
+الموضوع أن في بعض الفتيات تقدمنا ل .. للمحاكمة إن
+
+328
+00:25:09,170 --> 00:25:12,950
+هم أقل حظا من فتيات أخريات بتقدموا لل .. بيسموها
+
+329
+00:25:12,950 --> 00:25:16,570
+دي ال .. ال guesting services on the flights اللي
+
+330
+00:25:16,570 --> 00:25:20,630
+خدمات الضيافة في ال .. فهم بفضلوا فتيات عن أخريات
+
+331
+00:25:20,630 --> 00:25:29,950
+مضيفات فواحدة فرنسية قدمت للمحكمة الفرنسية أنه why
+
+332
+00:25:29,950 --> 00:25:34,110
+you do prefer them إذا أنتم بتطلبوا الطول بدرجة
+
+333
+00:25:34,110 --> 00:25:36,670
+معينة إذا بتطلبوا الوزن بدرجة معينة إذا بتطلبوا
+
+334
+00:25:36,670 --> 00:25:39,430
+كذا كذا كذا and these qualifications and I have
+
+335
+00:25:39,430 --> 00:25:44,920
+these qualifications so why you don't select me حتى
+
+336
+00:25:44,920 --> 00:25:48,640
+even the .. the differentiation between ladies
+
+337
+00:25:48,640 --> 00:25:51,520
+themselves يعني التفريق حتى بين .. بين البنات
+
+338
+00:25:51,520 --> 00:25:55,280
+نفسهم فهذا بيسموه breaking the ethics ممكن كمان في
+
+339
+00:25:55,280 --> 00:25:59,120
+.. في .. بين الرجال نفسهم ممكن يكون أنه اتنين رجال
+
+340
+00:25:59,120 --> 00:26:01,720
+تقدموا لمهنة واحد بيسكن في مكان وآخر بيسكن في
+
+341
+00:26:01,720 --> 00:26:07,070
+مكان آخر and they break the .. the thing is is to
+
+342
+00:26:07,070 --> 00:26:10,970
+applying the .. the ethical behavior or ethical
+
+343
+00:26:10,970 --> 00:26:14,330
+concentration why؟ إذا احنا طبقنا ال ethical
+
+344
+00:26:14,330 --> 00:26:17,650
+concentration على ال executives وعلى ال non
+
+345
+00:26:17,650 --> 00:26:21,370
+-executive حتى ال employees we should .. we .. we
+
+346
+00:26:21,370 --> 00:26:26,090
+keep the highly qualified people إذا .. إذا احنا
+
+347
+00:26:26,090 --> 00:26:28,610
+متطبقين الكلام هذا نحتفظ في ال highly qualified
+
+348
+00:26:28,610 --> 00:26:32,460
+people إذا احنا we don't concern about your color,
+
+349
+00:26:33,580 --> 00:26:37,460
+okay you are male or female, your ethnicity, your
+
+350
+00:26:37,460 --> 00:26:40,040
+religious, other things, we don't care about this
+
+351
+00:26:40,040 --> 00:26:45,320
+and we do focus on your qualifications so we keep
+
+352
+00:26:45,320 --> 00:26:48,620
+the highly qualified people in our company، this
+
+353
+00:26:48,620 --> 00:26:50,800
+is what Americans, this is what the British, what
+
+354
+00:26:50,800 --> 00:26:52,640
+the Europeans argue
+
+355
+00:26:55,980 --> 00:26:58,580
+this is what I'm saying but I don't want to talk
+
+356
+00:26:58,580 --> 00:27:01,620
+about these things because we are online so they
+
+357
+00:27:01,620 --> 00:27:05,560
+think .. yes and they هو أصلا الفرنسية كانت she's
+
+358
+00:27:05,560 --> 00:27:11,820
+.. كانت .. كانت يعني سوداء ولما تخدمت للوظيفة هم
+
+359
+00:27:11,820 --> 00:27:16,900
+they lay down her file lay down يعني راحوا
+
+360
+00:27:16,900 --> 00:27:24,230
+استبعدوا طلبها I'm against this okay فحسب ال
+
+361
+00:27:24,230 --> 00:27:27,650
+ethical code حسب ال ethical code it doesn't matter
+
+362
+00:27:27,650 --> 00:27:29,990
+what is your color the matter things is your
+
+363
+00:27:29,990 --> 00:27:34,010
+qualifications بغض
+
+364
+00:27:34,010 --> 00:27:38,990
+النظر شو لونك شو لغتك شو شكلك الهدف الرئيسي إذا
+
+365
+00:27:38,990 --> 00:27:46,700
+احنا بدنا نعمل نعمل تقدم في الشركات سلام؟ just for
+
+366
+00:27:46,700 --> 00:27:49,840
+qualifications if we fail to locate the qualified
+
+367
+00:27:49,840 --> 00:27:55,840
+people in their places it means it is the good
+
+368
+00:27:55,840 --> 00:27:59,760
+place to grow the corruption يعني هذا المكان
+
+369
+00:27:59,760 --> 00:28:05,220
+المناسب حتى الفساد ينمو okay so this is the things
+
+370
+00:28:05,220 --> 00:28:10,600
+okay هذا صعب كتير ربكم مش بسيط حتى على الأوروبيين
+
+371
+00:28:10,600 --> 00:28:12,780
+وعلى الأمريكان وعلى كل العالم الشيء مش بسيط مش
+
+372
+00:28:12,780 --> 00:28:20,010
+بس انا okay ويعني أبحاث كتير أثبتت أنه في ناس كتير
+
+373
+00:28:20,010 --> 00:28:23,590
+بيعملوا لل qualifications واحد من الأبحاث شاركت
+
+374
+00:28:23,590 --> 00:28:28,930
+أنا و professora في جامعة Manchester هذا البحث كان
+
+375
+00:28:28,930 --> 00:28:33,770
+بيحكي عن ال environment violation مرتبط في ال
+
+376
+00:28:33,770 --> 00:28:38,430
+corporate governance اللي .. اللي هو خرق ال ..
+
+377
+00:28:38,430 --> 00:28:41,050
+اللهم صلِّ الله عليه وسلم يا محمد .. خرق ال .. ال
+
+378
+00:28:41,050 --> 00:28:46,920
+.. الأخلاقيات المهنية واحد مصري مسلم كان يصلي في ال
+
+379
+00:28:46,920 --> 00:28:54,380
+.. أثناء العمل تمام؟ كان يصلي أثناء العمل فصارت
+
+380
+00:28:54,380 --> 00:28:57,200
+معاه مشكلة because أن هو مسلم they kicked him out
+
+381
+00:28:57,200 --> 00:29:02,580
+طردوه من العمل وبالتالي هذا ..نفس ال .. نفس ال ..
+
+382
+00:29:02,580 --> 00:29:06,040
+المشكلة بتصير أنه في smoking area شوفوا ال .. طبعا
+
+383
+00:29:06,040 --> 00:29:09,920
+هو بنى القضية تبعته على ال justification حكالهم أن
+
+384
+00:29:09,920 --> 00:29:13,280
+smoking area people spending most of their time in
+
+385
+00:29:13,280 --> 00:29:16,760
+the smoking place يعني ممنوع التدخين داخل ال ..
+
+386
+00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:22,080
+داخل المكتب فبيروحوا بيدخلوا خارج المكتب and they
+
+387
+00:29:22,080 --> 00:29:25,580
+spend from five to ten minutes I'm spending only
+
+388
+00:29:25,580 --> 00:29:29,440
+five minutes praying إذا كنتم تعقبوا عقبوا الناس
+
+389
+00:29:29,440 --> 00:29:33,640
+اللي بتدخن برا الشركة، بيدخنوا، they smoking، ليش
+
+390
+00:29:33,640 --> 00:29:38,800
+أنتوا تعقبوني؟ فالقاضي حكم .. حكم معه وكانت هذه
+
+391
+00:29:38,800 --> 00:29:42,940
+under the ethical considerations يعني صحيح مش
+
+392
+00:29:42,940 --> 00:29:46,540
+معايير للشركة أنه تحكي أنه ممنوع الصلاة، لأ
+
+393
+00:29:46,540 --> 00:29:49,300
+المعايير كانت تالية أنه طالما أنه في ناس بتدخن and
+
+394
+00:29:49,300 --> 00:29:51,780
+they spending five to ten minutes out of the
+
+395
+00:29:51,780 --> 00:29:57,960
+building, so this guy he is doing his praying his
+
+396
+00:29:57,960 --> 00:30:01,780
+favorite things لأنهم ممكن بيعترفوش مثلا أن هذا
+
+397
+00:30:01,780 --> 00:30:05,680
+دين خلاص his favorite things بيعمل شغلة اللي اللي
+
+398
+00:30:05,680 --> 00:30:09,500
+بيفضلها and they do this وبالتالي خسرت الشركة مبلغ
+
+399
+00:30:09,500 --> 00:30:15,180
+مش قليل حتى أنه يعوضوه
+
+400
+00:30:15,180 --> 00:30:18,700
+يعوضوه لأنه فعلا هي كانت breaking the ethical
+
+401
+00:30:18,700 --> 00:30:21,830
+considerations فلما احنا نطبق ال ethical
+
+402
+00:30:21,830 --> 00:30:24,510
+considerations هيكون فيه تحسين في أداء الشركات،
+
+403
+00:30:24,510 --> 00:30:29,130
+هيكون في عند corporate governance واضحة ال ethics؟
+
+404
+00:30:29,130 --> 00:30:31,510
+في عندكم أمثلة ممكن موجودة عندكم بال ethical
+
+405
+00:30:31,510 --> 00:30:38,390
+considerations؟ أمثلة بحياتكم، بالشركات، ممكن ..
+
+406
+00:30:38,390 --> 00:30:40,370
+طبعا لسه أنتم ما طلعتوش على بيئة العمل، بكرا
+
+407
+00:30:40,370 --> 00:30:43,950
+هتشوفوا بيئة العمل، هتشوفوا تفريق بال ethics،
+
+408
+00:30:43,950 --> 00:30:46,410
+هتشوفوا أن هذا this is ethics and this is non
+
+409
+00:30:46,410 --> 00:30:46,770
+ethics
+
+410
+00:31:01,390 --> 00:31:09,030
+Okay هذا against ethics هذا ضد ال .. ضد الأخلاق أو
+
+411
+00:31:09,030 --> 00:31:13,950
+ممكن مثلا يكون يعني إنسان
+
+412
+00:31:13,950 --> 00:31:20,790
+يكون بيعمل ب .. بجدية للشركة executives بيشتغل ..
+
+413
+00:31:20,790 --> 00:31:24,610
+he's working hard ولما يصير ال compensation يعمل
+
+414
+00:31:24,610 --> 00:31:28,660
+تعويض لشخص آخر مش ..مش sure المفروض أنه احنا بنعمل
+
+415
+00:31:28,660 --> 00:31:30,420
+evaluation لل people according to their
+
+416
+00:31:30,420 --> 00:31:34,080
+performance فنروح ممكن الشخص اللي ما بينتج نروح
+
+417
+00:31:34,080 --> 00:31:41,680
+نعطيه مكافئة والشخص اللي بينتج ما نهمله okay طبعا
+
+418
+00:31:41,680 --> 00:31:48,040
+هذا بيكون breaking the ethical okay سمام
+
+419
+00:31:48,040 --> 00:31:54,280
+investment process إذا خلصنا احنا ال .. ال .. ال
+
+420
+00:31:54,280 --> 00:31:57,500
+relationship between the financial markets and the
+
+421
+00:31:57,500 --> 00:32:01,560
+economics خلصنا العلاقة بين السوق المالي وبين ال
+
+422
+00:32:01,560 --> 00:32:07,900
+economics والاقتصاد خلينا بس نذكركم فيهم هيك ع
+
+423
+00:32:07,900 --> 00:32:15,700
+السريع وزي ما ترجم إشي ترجم دور المعلومات
+
+424
+00:32:15,700 --> 00:32:18,840
+information rule كل ما كانت المعلومات available
+
+425
+00:32:18,840 --> 00:32:21,920
+للناس بيستطيعوا أنهم يعملوا evaluation to the
+
+426
+00:32:21,920 --> 00:32:25,160
+business فال business اللي عنده شركات اللي عندها
+
+427
+00:32:25,160 --> 00:32:28,780
+good future prospects they have .. they have
+
+428
+00:32:28,780 --> 00:32:31,300
+opportunity to .. to compete in the markets يعني
+
+429
+00:32:31,300 --> 00:32:34,640
+اللي عندهم إمكانيات كبيرة ومعلومات واضحة ومستقبل
+
+430
+00:32:34,640 --> 00:32:38,000
+واضح هيكون عندهم إمكانية ينافسوا في السوق الثاني
+
+431
+00:32:38,000 --> 00:32:41,340
+ال consumption timing ال consumption timing الناس
+
+432
+00:32:41,340 --> 00:32:46,120
+بت .. ببداية حياته بيكون ال .. ال earning أعلى من
+
+433
+00:32:46,120 --> 00:32:50,380
+ال consumption بيكون الدخل أعلى من الاستهلاك طيب
+
+434
+00:32:50,380 --> 00:32:54,000
+في المراحل المتأخرة بحياتهم بيصير العكس بيصير ال
+
+435
+00:32:54,000 --> 00:32:58,450
+consumption أعلى وال earning أقل Okay لأن هو in
+
+436
+00:32:58,450 --> 00:33:03,150
+his or her late ages طب شو الحل؟ الحل أن احنا لما
+
+437
+00:33:03,150 --> 00:33:07,750
+نكون عندنا ال .. ال .. ال .. the higher return so
+
+438
+00:33:07,750 --> 00:33:11,190
+we .. we have or we should invest for the lower
+
+439
+00:33:11,190 --> 00:33:14,990
+return يعني احنا بنستثمر ال higher return today
+
+440
+00:33:14,990 --> 00:33:19,810
+because our return in the future will be low هيكون
+
+441
+00:33:19,810 --> 00:33:25,200
+منخفض so the investment is important allocation of
+
+442
+00:33:25,200 --> 00:33:27,820
+risk allocation of risk هو توزيع المخاطر
+
+443
+00:33:27,820 --> 00:33:31,220
+separation
+
+444
+00:33:31,220 --> 00:33:35,220
+of ownership and management هو الفصل بين الملاك
+
+445
+00:33:35,220 --> 00:33:40,920
+وبين الإدارة وكمان مش بس الفصل أن كل واحد يعرف
+
+446
+00:33:40,920 --> 00:33:45,080
+what is the task ال ال ال board of directors
+
+447
+00:33:45,080 --> 00:33:49,880
+setting the strategies okay and the executives
+
+448
+00:33:49,880 --> 00:33:53,400
+executives are translating the strategies into
+
+449
+00:33:53,400 --> 00:34:01,220
+actions Okay بيحولوها ل .. يعني ل .. لأعمال لأفعال
+
+450
+00:34:01,220 --> 00:34:06,320
+okay corporate governance اللي هو الحوكمة and the
+
+451
+00:34:06,320 --> 00:34:09,080
+ethics اللي هو الأخلاقيات and I gave you examples
+
+452
+00:34:09,080 --> 00:34:11,760
+about the corporate governance and about the
+
+453
+00:34:11,760 --> 00:34:12,240
+ethics
+
+454
+00:34:15,150 --> 00:34:19,430
+Okay وهاي أمثلة على شركات صار فيها فضائح why?
+
+455
+00:34:19,810 --> 00:34:23,070
+because they don't apply corporate governance and
+
+456
+00:34:23,070 --> 00:34:26,930
+they don't apply the corporate ethics ما حققوش ال
+
+457
+00:34:26,930 --> 00:34:31,990
+corporate governance وما حققوش ال ethics okay طبعا
+
+458
+00:34:31,990 --> 00:34:38,650
+واضح يا ..ش اسمك؟ ميه .. is it clear؟ انترجم okay
+
+459
+00:34:40,920 --> 00:34:46,480
+the investment process ال investment process it
+
+460
+00:34:46,480 --> 00:34:50,920
+considers the steps of doing investments يعني
+
+461
+00:34:50,920 --> 00:34:54,500
+الخطوات اللي احنا لازم نعملها حتى نعمل استثمار
+
+462
+00:34:54,500 --> 00:35:00,400
+خطوات عملية يعني لما نحكي عن ال asset ال
+
+463
+00:35:00,400 --> 00:35:05,820
+investment process هذه it's asking what are the
+
+464
+00:35:05,820 --> 00:35:10,980
+steps Okay to do the business or to do the
+
+465
+00:35:10,980 --> 00:35:16,360
+investments one of the first step is asset
+
+466
+00:35:16,360 --> 00:35:20,120
+allocation asset allocation what it means asset
+
+467
+00:35:20,120 --> 00:35:26,860
+allocation آه توزيع الأصول أو تخصيص الأصول زي ما
+
+468
+00:35:26,860 --> 00:35:32,460
+أنتم بتحكوا طيب how we can do this في أحد بعرف
+
+469
+00:35:32,460 --> 00:35:36,540
+how we can do this asset allocation أول خطوة احنا
+
+470
+00:35:36,540 --> 00:35:42,950
+بنقررها وين نستثمر asset allocation it means where
+
+471
+00:35:42,950 --> 00:35:47,850
+to invest أين سوف نستثمر okay for instance we have
+
+472
+00:35:47,850 --> 00:35:54,410
+stocks we have bonds we have currencies we have
+
+473
+00:35:54,410 --> 00:35:59,030
+commodities we
+
+474
+00:35:59,030 --> 00:36:02,810
+have real estates etc
+
+475
+00:36:04,940 --> 00:36:08,760
+يعني عندنا أسهم، في عندنا سندات، في عندنا عملات،
+
+476
+00:36:08,760 --> 00:36:12,920
+في عندنا commodities اللي هم .. لأ commodities
+
+477
+00:36:12,920 --> 00:36:17,480
+معناها ال .. ال .. ال .. السلع زي الحديد، النحاس،
+
+478
+00:36:17,480 --> 00:36:23,380
+الذهب، الفضة okay؟ real estate اللي هو العقارات
+
+479
+00:36:23,380 --> 00:36:29,160
+it's a try الأخرى، now the first decision you have
+
+480
+00:36:29,160 --> 00:36:34,590
+to take is where to invest asset allocation to
+
+481
+00:36:34,590 --> 00:36:38,590
+invest in stock in bonds in currencies real estate
+
+482
+00:36:38,590 --> 00:36:44,590
+commodities etc وين احنا بنستثمر فبنحط هدول ال
+
+483
+00:36:44,590 --> 00:36:47,510
+families هدول families of the of the investments
+
+484
+00:36:47,510 --> 00:36:50,510
+بنشوف هدول ال families وبنشوف مقرر احنا بنعمل
+
+485
+00:36:50,510 --> 00:36:53,430
+investment في ال stock ولا نعمل investment في ال
+
+486
+00:36:53,430 --> 00:37:00,240
+bonds ولا وين Okay let's say we .. we agree to do
+
+487
+00:37:00,240 --> 00:37:04,260
+investments in stocks so this is the first action
+
+488
+00:37:04,260 --> 00:37:08,700
+أول شغلة بنسويها أن احنا بنشوف عندنا الله أنا
+
+489
+00:37:08,700 --> 00:37:14,600
+بشوف بفهم بال bonds ممكن بفهم بفهمش بال currencies
+
+490
+00:37:14,600 --> 00:37:16,880
+عندك خبرة بال currencies عندك خبرة بال commodities
+
+491
+00:37:16,880 --> 00:37:20,400
+بال real estate فالناس اللي مثلا عندك خبرة بال
+
+492
+00:37:20,400 --> 00:37:24,970
+stocks بروح على ال stocks هذه أول خطوة عملناها Okay
+
+493
+00:37:24,970 --> 00:37:31,130
+then so choice among broad asset classes هدول
+
+494
+00:37:31,130 --> 00:37:33,810
+بيسموهم asset classes لإنه عندنا bonds,
+
+495
+00:37:34,810 --> 00:37:41,750
+currencies, commodities and etc The second step is
+
+496
+00:37:41,750 --> 00:37:49,200
+security selection in each class there is a broad
+
+497
+00:37:49,200 --> 00:37:52,960
+investment tools يعني خلينا نيجي نحكي احنا حكينا
+
+498
+00:37:52,960 --> 00:37:56,560
+عن ال stocks بدنا نستثمر بال stocks، مظبوط؟ طيب،
+
+499
+00:37:56,560 --> 00:38:03,120
+إذا هدول مابلزمونا صح؟ stocks the second question
+
+500
+00:38:03,120 --> 00:38:11,020
+you ask yourself which stock؟ أي سهم Okay احنا
+
+501
+00:38:11,020 --> 00:38:13,660
+بنستثمر في ال .. في ال stocks بس أي شركة بنشتري
+
+502
+00:38:13,660 --> 00:38:17,520
+يعني if you look at the PSE you know what it means
+
+503
+00:38:17,520 --> 00:38:22,000
+PSE Palestine Stock Exchange if we look at the PSE
+
+504
+00:38:22,000 --> 00:38:26,460
+سوق المال الفلسطيني we have many companies the
+
+505
+00:38:26,460 --> 00:38:30,580
+question is which company you want to invest في
+
+506
+00:38:30,580 --> 00:38:35,100
+شركة أنت بدك تستثمر Paltel, Badeco, AIB,  PALTEL which
+
+507
+00:38:35,100 --> 00:38:40,330
+company and why إذا احنا بدنا نقرر في الخطوة
+
+508
+00:38:40,330 --> 00:38:44,710
+الثانية which is security selection which company
+
+509
+00:38:44,710 --> 00:38:50,230
+you want to invest in the family of stocks or in
+
+510
+00:38:50,230 --> 00:38:54,590
+the class of stocks أي واحدة ممكن تقولوا بالتل you
+
+511
+00:38:54,590 --> 00:39:05,530
+want بالتل you want بوب sorry بوب you want AIB you
+
+512
+00:39:05,530 --> 00:39:10,480
+want باديكو what you want so I recommend you to
+
+513
+00:39:10,480 --> 00:39:16,820
+take a look at the psc.com and see the stocks
+
+514
+00:39:16,820 --> 00:39:27,060
+افتحوا ال website واكتبوا www.p-s-e.ps then see the
+
+515
+00:39:27,060 --> 00:39:29,920
+companies listed in the financial markets or
+
+516
+00:39:29,920 --> 00:39:35,690
+Palestinian financial markets Okay, so we go to
+
+517
+00:39:35,690 --> 00:39:42,170
+بالتل استثمرنا في بالتل why? because maybe the
+
+518
+00:39:42,170 --> 00:39:46,010
+بالتل is one of the company fits with my
+
+519
+00:39:46,010 --> 00:39:49,710
+characteristics لأن الشركة بالتل تناسب ال
+
+520
+00:39:49,710 --> 00:39:52,330
+characteristics تبعتي and we will discuss what it
+
+521
+00:39:52,330 --> 00:39:57,200
+means this إذا خلصنا security selection choice of
+
+522
+00:39:57,200 --> 00:40:00,600
+which securities to hold within asset classes أي
+
+523
+00:40:00,600 --> 00:40:06,980
+واحدة بدها تكون في ال asset classes fine then يعني
+
+524
+00:40:06,980 --> 00:40:10,860
+ال security selection بتشمل عدة خطوات الخطوة
+
+525
+00:40:10,860 --> 00:40:14,400
+الأولى زي ما أنتم شايفين استعرضنا الشركات في
+
+526
+00:40:14,400 --> 00:40:19,560
+السوق المالي شفناهم شفنا بالتل شفنا بديكو شفنا AIB
+
+527
+00:40:19,560 --> 00:40:28,840
+شفنا ال BOB  ل AIB okay وعملنا لهم analysis عملنا
+
+528
+00:40:28,840 --> 00:40:33,740
+لهم ايش تحليل تحليل كثير في financial analysis في
+
+529
+00:40:33,740 --> 00:40:36,740
+economic analysis في managerial analysis في
+
+530
+00:40:36,740 --> 00:40:41,520
+analysis كثير في technical analysis يعني عملنا
+
+531
+00:40:41,520 --> 00:40:46,280
+تحليلات لهذه الشركات هذه التحليلات بتساعدني أعمل
+
+532
+00:40:46,280 --> 00:40:48,540
+okay إذا قلت اللي منيحة
+
+533
+00:40:55,060 --> 00:41:00,280
+بعد ما احنا نعمل التحليلات نعمل risk-return trade
+
+534
+00:41:00,280 --> 00:41:05,400
+-off risk and return trade-off نفهم what it means
+
+535
+00:41:05,400 --> 00:41:13,600
+احنا هنا اخترنا palatal okay how we select palatal
+
+536
+00:41:13,600 --> 00:41:20,820
+شوفوا هنا، هنا عند ال risk وهنا عند ال return هذا
+
+537
+00:41:20,820 --> 00:41:25,840
+ال risk المخاطر وهنا ايش العائد العلاقة بين العائد
+
+538
+00:41:25,840 --> 00:41:29,560
+والمخاطر هي علاقة إيجابية ال risk بيزيد العائد
+
+539
+00:41:29,560 --> 00:41:34,580
+بيزيد okay so when the risk increase the return is
+
+540
+00:41:34,580 --> 00:41:39,480
+increase okay زي ما أنتم شايفين there is a
+
+541
+00:41:39,480 --> 00:41:43,020
+positive relationship between the risk and return
+
+542
+00:41:43,020 --> 00:41:51,120
+طيب هلأ بنيجي كل ما احنا نطلع لفوق ال risk بيزيد و
+
+543
+00:41:51,120 --> 00:41:55,030
+ال return بيزيد مثلا اللي بيستثمروا في palatal هم
+
+544
+00:41:55,030 --> 00:41:59,990
+ناس نحكي neutral ماعندهم كثير risk وما عندهم كثير
+
+545
+00:41:59,990 --> 00:42:08,690
+مخاطر palatal is located in this place so
+
+546
+00:42:08,690 --> 00:42:13,410
+palatal is reflecting a particular risk and a
+
+547
+00:42:13,410 --> 00:42:17,540
+particular return for a conservative people للناس
+
+548
+00:42:17,540 --> 00:42:20,540
+المحافظين الناس اللي ما بدهمش يتحملوا مخاطر كثير و
+
+549
+00:42:20,540 --> 00:42:23,680
+في نفس اللحظة الناس ما بدهمش يكون عندهم عائد مخفض
+
+550
+00:42:23,680 --> 00:42:30,120
+بالتل بتوزع dividends بتوزع أرباح okay مخاطرها
+
+551
+00:42:30,120 --> 00:42:35,900
+مخفضة وعائدها متوسط أو مخفض لو اجينا احنا اخذنا
+
+552
+00:42:35,900 --> 00:42:40,080
+شركة أخرى مثلا لأنه احنا مثلا إذا بدك تحكي عن ال
+
+553
+00:42:40,080 --> 00:42:43,620
+BOB okay Bank of Palestine I don't know ممكن
+
+554
+00:42:43,620 --> 00:42:51,540
+according to you maybe BOB according to you not
+
+555
+00:42:51,540 --> 00:42:55,660
+according to me BOB maybe is higher risk and
+
+556
+00:42:55,660 --> 00:42:59,800
+higher return so people they may think this is
+
+557
+00:42:59,800 --> 00:43:03,980
+holding high risk so they may avoid the BOB ممكن
+
+558
+00:43:03,980 --> 00:43:09,490
+يتجنبوا ال BOB Okay زي ما أنتم عائد عليه بتتحملوا 
+
+559
+00:43:09,490 --> 00:43:14,770
+مخاطر أعلى ال BOP stand for Bank of Palestine يعني
+
+560
+00:43:14,770 --> 00:43:22,530
+Bank فلسطين okay هذا هو trade-off between risk
+
+561
+00:43:22,530 --> 00:43:28,130
+and return نجح
+
+562
+00:43:28,130 --> 00:43:31,650
+عند هذا اللقاء
+
+563
+00:43:31,650 --> 00:43:34,390
+الجاي مطلوب منكم تقرأوا عن efficient markets 
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/0_i7Eeu5nU0_raw.json b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/0_i7Eeu5nU0_raw.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..464dd2372f662b6ed804538d91d34404c999930d
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/0_i7Eeu5nU0_raw.json
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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financial statements كانوا يتلاعبوا في إيش في ال financial statements and they hire a consultations or a consultants from a particular company let's say Merrill Lynch", "tokens": [2346, 321, 362, 6920, 2379, 1748, 293, 321, 362, 8320, 2379, 1748, 2489, 370, 264, 6920, 2379, 9862, 436, 366, 6510, 14231, 294, 264, 4669, 12363, 25961, 14407, 7251, 2655, 15040, 3615, 3555, 14407, 8978, 11933, 1829, 8592, 8978, 2423, 4669, 12363, 293, 436, 11158, 257, 7189, 763, 420, 257, 38935, 490, 257, 1729, 2237, 718, 311, 584, 6124, 37480, 32345], "avg_logprob": -0.22731854862743808, "compression_ratio": 1.59375, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 840.37, "end": 840.77, "word": "yes", "probability": 0.0982666015625}, {"start": 840.77, "end": 841.21, "word": " we", "probability": 0.46337890625}, {"start": 841.21, "end": 841.39, "word": " have", "probability": 0.96875}, {"start": 841.39, "end": 841.81, "word": " internal", "probability": 0.86669921875}, {"start": 841.81, "end": 842.33, "word": " 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consultation and auditing consultation إيش معناها استشارات يخدموهم استشارات okay و في نفس الوقت إيش يقدمولهم auditing رقابة طب بنفع إيش رأيكم؟", "tokens": [5289, 3953, 6055, 3215, 38436, 4587, 4386, 6055, 3215, 38436, 4587, 3714, 5016, 32277, 3555, 1392, 7251, 9778, 40448, 14407, 13412, 17082, 1211, 2655, 9957, 20932, 293, 2379, 1748, 20932, 11933, 1829, 8592, 20449, 8315, 11296, 44713, 8592, 9640, 9307, 7251, 9778, 40448, 2407, 16095, 44713, 8592, 9640, 9307, 1392, 4032, 8978, 8717, 36178, 2423, 30543, 2655, 11933, 1829, 8592, 7251, 28543, 2304, 12610, 16095, 2379, 1748, 12602, 4587, 16758, 3660, 23032, 3555, 44945, 5172, 3615, 11933, 1829, 8592, 12602, 10721, 1829, 24793, 22807], "avg_logprob": -0.15946691456963033, "compression_ratio": 1.553191489361702, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 896.92, "end": 897.48, "word": "Anderson", "probability": 0.682373046875}, {"start": 897.48, "end": 898.06, "word": " تدقيق", "probability": 0.73681640625}, {"start": 898.06, "end": 898.16, 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"temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 47, "seek": 122455, "start": 1201.01, "end": 1224.55, "text": "ال price now is 6.5 احنا هنعطيك right is option right to buy this stock at two dollar نعطيك حق تشتري هذا السهم ب two dollar كويس يعني هو اصلا لو بدوش يدفع two dollar هيكون ربحان كام four and half أربعة و نص", "tokens": [6027, 3218, 586, 307, 1386, 13, 20, 1975, 5016, 8315, 8032, 1863, 3615, 9566, 1829, 4117, 558, 307, 3614, 558, 281, 2256, 341, 4127, 412, 732, 7241, 8717, 3615, 9566, 1829, 4117, 11331, 4587, 6055, 8592, 2655, 16572, 23758, 21136, 16095, 4724, 732, 7241, 9122, 45865, 3794, 37495, 22653, 31439, 1975, 9381, 15040, 45164, 47525, 2407, 8592, 7251, 3215, 5172, 3615, 732, 7241, 39896, 30544, 12602, 49628, 7649, 9122, 10943, 1451, 293, 1922, 5551, 25513, 27884, 4032, 8717, 9381], "avg_logprob": -0.16562500577419997, "compression_ratio": 1.4343434343434343, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 1201.01, "end": 1201.25, "word": "ال", "probability": 0.97900390625}, {"start": 1201.25, 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laptop", "probability": 0.990234375}, {"start": 1243.39, "end": 1243.77, "word": " هذا", "probability": 0.9443359375}, {"start": 1243.77, "end": 1244.29, "word": " ب", "probability": 0.87109375}, {"start": 1244.29, "end": 1244.47, "word": " 100", "probability": 0.2509765625}, {"start": 1244.47, "end": 1244.81, "word": " دولار", "probability": 0.8924153645833334}, {"start": 1244.81, "end": 1245.99, "word": " كام؟", "probability": 0.8089192708333334}, {"start": 1245.99, "end": 1246.77, "word": " 100", "probability": 0.8193359375}, {"start": 1246.77, "end": 1247.07, "word": " دولار", "probability": 0.9900716145833334}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 49, "seek": 126209, "start": 1248.78, "end": 1262.1, "text": "حقوا 500 دولار طيب في ناس انا عندي laptop I don't need this فاش بسوي I use my right to sell the laptop يعني انا بستخدم حقي في بيع ال laptop", "tokens": [5016, 4587, 14407, 5923, 11778, 12610, 9640, 23032, 1829, 3555, 8978, 8717, 32277, 1975, 8315, 18871, 16254, 10732, 286, 500, 380, 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"word": " color", "probability": 0.7529296875}, {"start": 1648.37, "end": 1648.99, "word": " the", "probability": 0.60205078125}, {"start": 1648.99, "end": 1649.21, "word": " matter", "probability": 0.79248046875}, {"start": 1649.21, "end": 1649.57, "word": " things", "probability": 0.48193359375}, {"start": 1649.57, "end": 1649.83, "word": " is", "probability": 0.951171875}, {"start": 1649.83, "end": 1649.99, "word": " your", "probability": 0.9228515625}, {"start": 1649.99, "end": 1650.73, "word": " qualifications", "probability": 0.90185546875}, {"start": 1650.73, "end": 1654.01, "word": " بغض", "probability": 0.9088541666666666}, {"start": 1654.01, "end": 1654.29, "word": " النظر", "probability": 0.8844401041666666}, {"start": 1654.29, "end": 1654.43, "word": " شو", "probability": 0.975830078125}, {"start": 1654.43, "end": 1654.89, "word": " لونك", "probability": 0.9713541666666666}, {"start": 1654.89, "end": 1655.63, "word": " شو", "probability": 0.7255859375}, {"start": 1655.63, 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1689.66, "word": " بسيط", "probability": 0.9967041015625}, {"start": 1689.66, "end": 1689.94, "word": " حتى", "probability": 0.88623046875}, {"start": 1689.94, "end": 1690.06, "word": " على", "probability": 0.80078125}, {"start": 1690.06, "end": 1690.6, "word": " الأوروبيين", "probability": 0.9044921875}, {"start": 1690.6, "end": 1690.68, "word": " و", "probability": 0.9111328125}, {"start": 1690.68, "end": 1690.76, "word": " على", "probability": 0.38232421875}, {"start": 1690.76, "end": 1691.24, "word": " الأمريكان", "probability": 0.9541015625}, {"start": 1691.24, "end": 1691.36, "word": " و", "probability": 0.986328125}, {"start": 1691.36, "end": 1691.4, "word": " على", "probability": 0.8408203125}, {"start": 1691.4, "end": 1691.56, "word": " كل", "probability": 0.98046875}, {"start": 1691.56, "end": 1691.9, "word": " العالم", "probability": 0.9931640625}, {"start": 1691.9, "end": 1692.18, "word": " الاشي", "probability": 0.6192220052083334}, {"start": 1692.18, "end": 1692.32, 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على شركات صار فيها فضائح why? because they don't apply corporate governance and they don't apply the corporate ethics ماحققوش ال corporate governance و ماحققوش ال ethics okay طبعا واضح يا ..ش اسمك؟ ميه .. is it clear؟ انترجم okay", "tokens": [8297, 4032, 8032, 47302, 5551, 2304, 12984, 37977, 15844, 13412, 31747, 9307, 20328, 9640, 8978, 11296, 6156, 11242, 16373, 5016, 983, 30, 570, 436, 500, 380, 3079, 10896, 17449, 293, 436, 500, 380, 3079, 264, 10896, 19769, 19446, 5016, 4587, 4587, 2407, 8592, 2423, 10896, 17449, 4032, 19446, 5016, 4587, 4587, 2407, 8592, 2423, 19769, 1392, 23032, 3555, 3615, 995, 4032, 46958, 5016, 35186, 4386, 8592, 24525, 2304, 4117, 22807, 3714, 1829, 3224, 4386, 307, 309, 1850, 22807, 16472, 2655, 47341, 2304, 1392], "avg_logprob": -0.2085193493181751, "compression_ratio": 1.4814814814814814, "no_speech_prob": 4.76837158203125e-07, "words": [{"start": 2055.15, "end": 2055.55, "word": "Okay", "probability": 0.7314453125}, {"start": 2055.55, "end": 2056.03, 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allocation what it means asset allocation اه توزيع الأصول او تخصيص الأصول زي ما انتوا بتحكوا طيب how we can do this في أحد بعرف how we can do this asset allocation أول خطوة احنا بنقررها", "tokens": [8297, 281, 360, 264, 1606, 420, 281, 360, 264, 13784, 472, 295, 264, 700, 1823, 307, 11999, 27599, 11999, 27599, 437, 309, 1355, 11999, 27599, 1975, 3224, 33427, 11622, 40228, 16247, 9381, 12610, 1975, 2407, 6055, 9778, 9381, 1829, 9381, 16247, 9381, 12610, 30767, 1829, 19446, 16472, 2655, 14407, 39894, 5016, 4117, 14407, 23032, 1829, 3555, 577, 321, 393, 360, 341, 8978, 5551, 24401, 45030, 28480, 577, 321, 393, 360, 341, 11999, 27599, 5551, 12610, 16490, 9566, 2407, 3660, 1975, 5016, 8315, 44945, 4587, 2288, 2288, 11296], "avg_logprob": -0.14408735744655132, "compression_ratio": 1.721951219512195, "no_speech_prob": 5.960464477539063e-08, "words": [{"start": 2107.7199999999993, "end": 2108.4799999999996, "word": "Okay", "probability": 0.56494140625}, {"start": 2108.4799999999996, "end": 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"temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 92, "seek": 234655, "start": 2318.05, "end": 2346.55, "text": "إذا إحنا بدنا نقرر في الخطوة التانية which is security selection which company you want to invest in the family of stocks or in the class of stocks أي واحدة ممكن تقولوا بالتم you want بالتم you want بوب sorry بوب you want aib you want badico", "tokens": [28814, 15730, 11933, 5016, 8315, 47525, 8315, 8717, 4587, 2288, 2288, 8978, 33962, 9566, 2407, 3660, 16712, 7649, 10632, 597, 307, 3825, 9450, 597, 2237, 291, 528, 281, 1963, 294, 264, 1605, 295, 12966, 420, 294, 264, 1508, 295, 12966, 36632, 36764, 24401, 3660, 3714, 43020, 6055, 39648, 14407, 4724, 6027, 39237, 291, 528, 4724, 6027, 39237, 291, 528, 4724, 37746, 2597, 4724, 37746, 291, 528, 257, 897, 291, 528, 1578, 2789], "avg_logprob": -0.23886986301369864, "compression_ratio": 1.5670103092783505, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 2318.05, "end": 2318.35, "word": "إذا", "probability": 0.73486328125}, {"start": 2318.35, "end": 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then see the companies listed in the financial markets or palestinian financial markets", "tokens": [5479, 291, 528, 370, 286, 2748, 291, 281, 747, 257, 574, 412, 264, 280, 5790, 13, 1112, 293, 536, 264, 12966, 1975, 5172, 2655, 5016, 14407, 2423, 3144, 4032, 1975, 4117, 2655, 3555, 12520, 13, 65, 12, 82, 12, 68, 13, 929, 550, 536, 264, 3431, 10052, 294, 264, 4669, 8383, 420, 3984, 377, 259, 952, 4669, 8383], "avg_logprob": -0.2799258525088682, "compression_ratio": 1.4102564102564104, "no_speech_prob": 5.960464477539063e-08, "words": [{"start": 2347.72, "end": 2348.06, "word": "what", "probability": 0.049896240234375}, {"start": 2348.06, "end": 2348.6, "word": " you", "probability": 0.90283203125}, {"start": 2348.6, "end": 2348.92, "word": " want", "probability": 0.86474609375}, {"start": 2348.92, "end": 2349.64, "word": " so", "probability": 0.22021484375}, {"start": 2349.64, "end": 2349.84, "word": " I", "probability": 0.8486328125}, {"start": 2349.84, "end": 2350.16, "word": " 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"end": 2418.6, "word": " شفنا", "probability": 0.9724934895833334}, {"start": 2418.6, "end": 2419.56, "word": " AIB", "probability": 0.595703125}, {"start": 2419.56, "end": 2420.1, "word": " شفنا", "probability": 0.9752604166666666}, {"start": 2420.1, "end": 2420.48, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.87158203125}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 96, "seek": 244854, "start": 2422.4, "end": 2448.54, "text": "BOB ل AIB okay وعملنا لهم analysis عملنا لهم إيش تحليل تحليل كتير في financial analysis في economic analysis في managerial analysis في analysis كتير في technical analysis يعني عملنا تحليلات لهذه الشركات هذه التحليلات بتساعدني أعمل okay إذا بقلت اللي منيحة", "tokens": [15893, 33, 5296, 7318, 33, 1392, 4032, 25957, 1211, 8315, 5296, 16095, 5215, 6225, 42213, 8315, 5296, 16095, 11933, 1829, 8592, 6055, 5016, 20292, 1211, 6055, 5016, 20292, 1211, 9122, 2655, 13546, 8978, 4669, 5215, 8978, 4836, 5215, 8978, 6598, 831, 5215, 8978, 5215, 9122, 2655, 13546, 8978, 6191, 5215, 37495, 22653, 6225, 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"بعد ما احنا نعمل التحليلات نعمل risk-return trade-off risk and return trade-off نفهم what it means احنا هان اخترنا palatal okay how we select palatal شوفوا هان، هان عند ال risk و هان عند ال return هذا ال risk المخاطر وهنا إيش العائد", "tokens": [3555, 22488, 19446, 1975, 5016, 8315, 8717, 25957, 1211, 16712, 5016, 20292, 1211, 9307, 8717, 25957, 1211, 3148, 12, 1505, 925, 4923, 12, 4506, 3148, 293, 2736, 4923, 12, 4506, 8717, 5172, 16095, 437, 309, 1355, 1975, 5016, 8315, 8032, 7649, 1975, 46456, 2288, 8315, 3984, 40478, 1392, 577, 321, 3048, 3984, 40478, 13412, 38688, 14407, 8032, 7649, 12399, 8032, 7649, 43242, 2423, 3148, 4032, 8032, 7649, 43242, 2423, 2736, 23758, 2423, 3148, 9673, 9778, 41193, 2288, 37037, 8315, 11933, 1829, 8592, 18863, 16373, 3215], "avg_logprob": -0.23582848352055216, "compression_ratio": 1.6548223350253808, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 2455.06, "end": 2455.48, "word": "بعد", "probability": 0.962646484375}, {"start": 2455.48, "end": 2455.6, 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we", "probability": 0.939453125}, {"start": 2472.86, "end": 2473.18, "word": " select", "probability": 0.90087890625}, {"start": 2473.18, "end": 2473.6, "word": " palatal", "probability": 0.936767578125}, {"start": 2473.6, "end": 2475.96, "word": " شوفوا", "probability": 0.8307291666666666}, {"start": 2475.96, "end": 2476.42, "word": " هان،", "probability": 0.6895345052083334}, {"start": 2476.42, "end": 2476.64, "word": " هان", "probability": 0.5047607421875}, {"start": 2476.64, "end": 2476.8, "word": " عند", "probability": 0.97802734375}, {"start": 2476.8, "end": 2476.94, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.8876953125}, {"start": 2476.94, "end": 2477.26, "word": " risk", "probability": 0.9208984375}, {"start": 2477.26, "end": 2478.4, "word": " و", "probability": 0.6298828125}, {"start": 2478.4, "end": 2478.54, "word": " هان", "probability": 0.69140625}, {"start": 2478.54, "end": 2478.7, "word": " عند", "probability": 0.9775390625}, {"start": 2478.7, "end": 2478.8, "word": " ال", 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هلأ بنيجي كل ما احنا نطلع لفوق ال risk بيزيد و ال return بيزيد", "tokens": [6027, 3615, 15040, 28671, 49374, 18863, 16373, 3215, 16070, 2304, 9778, 41193, 2288, 39896, 11203, 995, 28671, 11933, 1829, 7435, 16758, 10632, 2423, 3148, 4724, 1829, 11622, 25708, 18863, 16373, 3215, 4724, 1829, 11622, 25708, 1392, 370, 562, 264, 3148, 3488, 264, 2736, 307, 3488, 1392, 30767, 1829, 19446, 14739, 2655, 14407, 13412, 995, 33911, 9957, 456, 307, 257, 3353, 2480, 1296, 264, 3148, 293, 2736, 23032, 1829, 3555, 8032, 1211, 10721, 44945, 1829, 7435, 1829, 28242, 19446, 1975, 5016, 8315, 8717, 9566, 1211, 3615, 5296, 5172, 30543, 2423, 3148, 4724, 1829, 11622, 25708, 4032, 2423, 2736, 4724, 1829, 11622, 25708], "avg_logprob": -0.14246323894636304, "compression_ratio": 1.7410714285714286, "no_speech_prob": 2.384185791015625e-07, "words": [{"start": 2484.64, "end": 2485.14, "word": "العلاقة", "probability": 0.897705078125}, {"start": 2485.14, "end": 2485.4, "word": " بين", "probability": 0.974609375}, 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2505.58, "end": 2506.16, "word": " هلأ", "probability": 0.6507161458333334}, {"start": 2506.16, "end": 2506.64, "word": " بنيجي", "probability": 0.7193603515625}, {"start": 2506.64, "end": 2508.46, "word": " كل", "probability": 0.919921875}, {"start": 2508.46, "end": 2508.56, "word": " ما", "probability": 0.904296875}, {"start": 2508.56, "end": 2508.76, "word": " احنا", "probability": 0.822509765625}, {"start": 2508.76, "end": 2509.06, "word": " نطلع", "probability": 0.976318359375}, {"start": 2509.06, "end": 2509.5, "word": " لفوق", "probability": 0.9274088541666666}, {"start": 2509.5, "end": 2510.46, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.9482421875}, {"start": 2510.46, "end": 2510.64, "word": " risk", "probability": 0.98681640625}, {"start": 2510.64, "end": 2511.0, "word": " بيزيد", "probability": 0.9761962890625}, {"start": 2511.0, "end": 2511.12, "word": " و", "probability": 0.86279296875}, {"start": 2511.12, "end": 2511.14, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.70458984375}, {"start": 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2519.47, "word": " و", "probability": 0.95947265625}, {"start": 2519.47, "end": 2519.75, "word": " ماعندهم", "probability": 0.9346923828125}, {"start": 2519.75, "end": 2519.99, "word": " كتير", "probability": 0.9464518229166666}, {"start": 2519.99, "end": 2520.47, "word": " مخاطر", "probability": 0.9949951171875}, {"start": 2520.47, "end": 2521.57, "word": " palatal", "probability": 0.7607421875}, {"start": 2521.57, "end": 2521.85, "word": " is", "probability": 0.94580078125}, {"start": 2521.85, "end": 2522.23, "word": " located", "probability": 0.95751953125}, {"start": 2522.23, "end": 2522.45, "word": " in", "probability": 0.9638671875}, {"start": 2522.45, "end": 2522.65, "word": " this", "probability": 0.962890625}, {"start": 2522.65, "end": 2522.99, "word": " place", "probability": 0.91845703125}, {"start": 2522.99, "end": 2528.69, "word": " so", "probability": 0.5078125}, {"start": 2528.69, "end": 2529.29, "word": " palatal", "probability": 0.926025390625}, {"start": 2529.29, 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مخاطرها مخفضة و عائدها متوسط أو مخفض لو أجينا احنا أخدنا شركة أخرى مثلا", "tokens": [2994, 257, 13780, 561, 24976, 8315, 3794, 9673, 5016, 31845, 19913, 9957, 2423, 8315, 3794, 13672, 1829, 19446, 44510, 16095, 8592, 7251, 2655, 35571, 1211, 14407, 3714, 9778, 41193, 2288, 9122, 2655, 13546, 4032, 8978, 8717, 36178, 13672, 5016, 19913, 3660, 2423, 8315, 3794, 19446, 44510, 16095, 8592, 7251, 30544, 43242, 16095, 6225, 16373, 3215, 3714, 9778, 5172, 11242, 4724, 4587, 6027, 2655, 39894, 2407, 11622, 3615, 39675, 39894, 2407, 11622, 3615, 5551, 25513, 39319, 1392, 3714, 9778, 41193, 2288, 11296, 3714, 9778, 5172, 11242, 3660, 4032, 6225, 16373, 3215, 11296, 44650, 41779, 9566, 34051, 3714, 9778, 5172, 11242, 45164, 5551, 7435, 1829, 8315, 1975, 5016, 8315, 5551, 9778, 3215, 8315, 13412, 31747, 3660, 5551, 34740, 7578, 50113, 15040], "avg_logprob": -0.1294921811670065, "compression_ratio": 1.75, "no_speech_prob": 2.980232238769531e-07, "words": [{"start": 2535.26, "end": 2535.62, "word": 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{"start": 2554.64, "end": 2554.9, "word": " أجينا", "probability": 0.8612060546875}, {"start": 2554.9, "end": 2555.18, "word": " احنا", "probability": 0.869140625}, {"start": 2555.18, "end": 2555.9, "word": " أخدنا", "probability": 0.9404296875}, {"start": 2555.9, "end": 2556.22, "word": " شركة", "probability": 0.97998046875}, {"start": 2556.22, "end": 2556.52, "word": " أخرى", "probability": 0.9348958333333334}, {"start": 2556.52, "end": 2556.84, "word": " مثلا", "probability": 0.983154296875}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 101, "seek": 258467, "start": 2557.96, "end": 2584.68, "text": "لأنه احنا مثلا إذا بدك تحكي عن ال bob okay bank of Palestine I don't know ممكن according to you maybe bob according to you not according to me bob maybe is higher risk and higher return so people they may think this is holding high risk so they may avoid the bob ممكن يتجنبوا ال bob", "tokens": [1211, 33456, 3224, 1975, 5016, 8315, 50113, 15040, 11933, 15730, 47525, 4117, 6055, 5016, 4117, 1829, 18871, 2423, 27292, 1392, 3765, 295, 33030, 286, 500, 380, 458, 3714, 43020, 4650, 281, 291, 1310, 27292, 4650, 281, 291, 406, 4650, 281, 385, 27292, 1310, 307, 2946, 3148, 293, 2946, 2736, 370, 561, 436, 815, 519, 341, 307, 5061, 1090, 3148, 370, 436, 815, 5042, 264, 27292, 3714, 43020, 7251, 2655, 7435, 1863, 3555, 14407, 2423, 27292], "avg_logprob": -0.18688322191959933, "compression_ratio": 1.5186915887850467, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 2557.96, "end": 2558.46, "word": "لأنه", "probability": 0.7489420572916666}, {"start": 2558.46, "end": 2558.64, "word": " احنا", "probability": 0.9112955729166666}, {"start": 2558.64, "end": 2559.06, "word": " مثلا", "probability": 0.982421875}, {"start": 2559.06, "end": 2559.44, "word": " إذا", "probability": 0.77685546875}, {"start": 2559.44, "end": 2559.64, "word": " بدك", "probability": 0.84912109375}, {"start": 2559.64, "end": 2559.86, "word": " تحكي", "probability": 0.99365234375}, {"start": 2559.86, "end": 2559.98, "word": " عن", 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"probability": 0.8994140625}, {"start": 2574.48, "end": 2574.84, "word": " is", "probability": 0.94482421875}, {"start": 2574.84, "end": 2575.1, "word": " higher", "probability": 0.89697265625}, {"start": 2575.1, "end": 2575.44, "word": " risk", "probability": 0.9765625}, {"start": 2575.44, "end": 2575.66, "word": " and", "probability": 0.96240234375}, {"start": 2575.66, "end": 2575.88, "word": " higher", "probability": 0.86328125}, {"start": 2575.88, "end": 2576.26, "word": " return", "probability": 0.88427734375}, {"start": 2576.26, "end": 2577.5, "word": " so", "probability": 0.6884765625}, {"start": 2577.5, "end": 2578.44, "word": " people", "probability": 0.9580078125}, {"start": 2578.44, "end": 2578.68, "word": " they", "probability": 0.92822265625}, {"start": 2578.68, "end": 2578.88, "word": " may", "probability": 0.9384765625}, {"start": 2578.88, "end": 2579.32, "word": " think", "probability": 0.93798828125}, {"start": 2579.32, "end": 2579.58, "word": " this", "probability": 0.94580078125}, {"start": 2579.58, "end": 2579.8, "word": " is", "probability": 0.95166015625}, {"start": 2579.8, "end": 2580.48, "word": " holding", "probability": 0.876953125}, {"start": 2580.48, "end": 2580.76, "word": " high", "probability": 0.72900390625}, {"start": 2580.76, "end": 2581.0, "word": " risk", "probability": 0.93994140625}, {"start": 2581.0, "end": 2581.4, "word": " so", "probability": 0.91748046875}, {"start": 2581.4, "end": 2581.6, "word": " they", "probability": 0.91259765625}, {"start": 2581.6, "end": 2581.86, "word": " may", "probability": 0.888671875}, {"start": 2581.86, "end": 2582.34, "word": " avoid", "probability": 0.916015625}, {"start": 2582.34, "end": 2582.72, "word": " the", "probability": 0.90966796875}, {"start": 2582.72, "end": 2583.0, "word": " bob", "probability": 0.85400390625}, {"start": 2583.0, "end": 2583.98, "word": " ممكن", "probability": 0.951171875}, {"start": 2583.98, "end": 2584.48, "word": " يتجنبوا", "probability": 0.9767252604166666}, {"start": 2584.48, "end": 2584.56, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.748046875}, {"start": 2584.56, "end": 2584.68, "word": " bob", "probability": 0.8388671875}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 102, "seek": 261439, "start": 2585.81, "end": 2614.39, "text": "Okay زي ما انتوا عائد عليه بتتحملوا مخاطر أعلى ال BOP stand for Bank of Palestine يعني Bank فلسطين okay هذا هو trade-off between risk and return نجح عند هذا اللقاء الجاي مطلوب منكم تقرأوا عن efficient markets", "tokens": [8297, 30767, 1829, 19446, 16472, 2655, 14407, 6225, 16373, 3215, 47356, 39894, 2655, 35571, 1211, 14407, 3714, 9778, 41193, 2288, 5551, 3615, 23942, 2423, 363, 12059, 1463, 337, 8915, 295, 33030, 37495, 22653, 8915, 6156, 1211, 3794, 9566, 9957, 1392, 23758, 31439, 4923, 12, 4506, 1296, 3148, 293, 2736, 8717, 7435, 5016, 43242, 23758, 13672, 4587, 16606, 25724, 47302, 3714, 9566, 1211, 37746, 9154, 24793, 6055, 4587, 2288, 10721, 14407, 18871, 7148, 8383], "avg_logprob": -0.32200169563293457, "compression_ratio": 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\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/2sBv6juKWtc_postprocess.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/2sBv6juKWtc_postprocess.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..4c21969226848cb522adcd340322bad72598961b
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/2sBv6juKWtc_postprocess.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1604 @@
+1
+00:00:20,650 --> 00:00:24,670
+الله الرحمن الرحيم المرة
+
+2
+00:00:24,670 --> 00:00:27,090
+الأولى تكون نحكي عن ال relationship between
+
+3
+00:00:27,090 --> 00:00:31,150
+treasury bills and inflation rates اليوم هنحكي
+
+4
+00:00:31,150 --> 00:00:35,750
+العلاقة بين ال risk and risk premiums علاقة ال
+
+5
+00:00:35,750 --> 00:00:38,490
+risk and risk premiums خليني نعرف أيش ال risk and
+
+6
+00:00:38,490 --> 00:00:41,950
+premiums ال risk عارفين من المخاطر ال risk
+
+7
+00:00:41,950 --> 00:00:48,690
+premiums هي علاوة المخاطر لو احنا ركزنا بال charts
+
+8
+00:00:50,620 --> 00:00:55,040
+بركزنا بال charts و
+
+9
+00:00:55,040 --> 00:01:00,440
+حكينا هن ال commercial paper okay و هن ال sorry هن
+
+10
+00:01:00,440 --> 00:01:06,700
+treasury bills هن commercial paper و هن stocks و
+
+11
+00:01:06,700 --> 00:01:12,160
+هن bonds و هن derivatives okay احنا بنعرف الكلام
+
+12
+00:01:12,160 --> 00:01:17,120
+هذا من الأول خليني أسأل سؤال بسيط which holding
+
+13
+00:01:17,120 --> 00:01:23,100
+more risk stocks or bondsمين بيحمل المخاطر اكتر؟
+
+14
+00:01:23,100 --> 00:01:26,480
+ال stocks ولا ال bonds؟ bonds طبعا هناخد risk هان
+
+15
+00:01:26,480 --> 00:01:30,800
+و هناخد ال expected return يعني هاي ال risk و هاي
+
+16
+00:01:30,800 --> 00:01:35,440
+ال return اذا ال stocks holding more risk than ال
+
+17
+00:01:35,440 --> 00:01:40,100
+bonds ال stocks بتحمل مخاطر اعلى من ال bonds،
+
+18
+00:01:40,100 --> 00:01:47,320
+مظبوط؟ طيب يعني لو احنا أخدمها ال bonds
+
+19
+00:01:56,540 --> 00:02:01,720
+الـ stocks زي
+
+20
+00:02:01,720 --> 00:02:08,200
+ما انتوا شايفين holding higher risk than bonds
+
+21
+00:02:08,200 --> 00:02:13,700
+okay look at this chart اذا هذا ال risk risk is
+
+22
+00:02:13,700 --> 00:02:17,480
+measured by sigma we will explain what it means
+
+23
+00:02:17,480 --> 00:02:23,660
+sigmaال risk مقاس ب sigma فإذا احنا اعتبرنا هذا
+
+24
+00:02:23,660 --> 00:02:26,340
+sigma zero اللي هو treasure built sigma zero يعني
+
+25
+00:02:26,340 --> 00:02:30,100
+ال .. ال .. ال system at risk عن sigma zero هذا
+
+26
+00:02:30,100 --> 00:02:34,640
+sigma one وهنا sigma two اللي هو sigma two اللي هو
+
+27
+00:02:34,640 --> 00:02:37,500
+sigma بتاعة ال stock و sigma one اللي هو sigma
+
+28
+00:02:37,500 --> 00:02:42,820
+بتاعة ال bond sigma bond طيب إيش بتلاحظوا ال sigma
+
+29
+00:02:42,820 --> 00:02:49,400
+of stocksis greater than sigma of bond look at the
+
+30
+00:02:49,400 --> 00:02:53,820
+expected rate of return of bonds expected rate R
+
+31
+00:02:53,820 --> 00:02:59,660
+of bonds and look at the R of stock which is
+
+32
+00:02:59,660 --> 00:03:04,240
+greater the return of stocks or the return of
+
+33
+00:03:04,240 --> 00:03:12,540
+bonds stocks is greater by this يعني هو أكبر ب
+
+34
+00:03:13,400 --> 00:03:21,120
+بهالفترة هذه because look at here because stocks
+
+35
+00:03:21,120 --> 00:03:25,120
+holding more risk they are holding higher return
+
+36
+00:03:25,120 --> 00:03:32,580
+the difference of stocks risk is compensated by
+
+37
+00:03:32,580 --> 00:03:35,920
+risk premium so because the investors holding more
+
+38
+00:03:35,920 --> 00:03:41,360
+risk are compensated byexcess return or risk
+
+39
+00:03:41,360 --> 00:03:45,580
+premium فهذه الفترة تسميها excess premium او risk
+
+40
+00:03:45,580 --> 00:03:50,900
+premium risk premium or
+
+41
+00:03:50,900 --> 00:03:58,020
+return premium يعني سميها return premium وفي بعض
+
+42
+00:03:58,020 --> 00:04:05,260
+الكتب بيسموها excess return excess return يعني زي
+
+43
+00:04:05,260 --> 00:04:09,300
+ما احنا اتحملنا مخاطر اكتر في ال stocksهناخد عائد
+
+44
+00:04:09,300 --> 00:04:12,320
+اكتر، قداش قيمة العائد الزيادة هي هذه الفترة
+
+45
+00:04:12,320 --> 00:04:16,280
+الزمنية، شايفينها؟ just this هذا الفرق من ناتوم
+
+46
+00:04:16,280 --> 00:04:20,280
+because we are holding higher risk we are taking
+
+47
+00:04:20,280 --> 00:04:27,680
+higher return okay طيب so first of all قبل ما احنا
+
+48
+00:04:27,680 --> 00:04:31,680
+to go in details about thisخلّينا ندخل في التفاصيل
+
+49
+00:04:31,680 --> 00:04:35,380
+خلّينا ت estimate the expected rate of return of
+
+50
+00:04:35,380 --> 00:04:39,700
+stocks or of bonds و بعدين بنعمل estimation لل
+
+51
+00:04:39,700 --> 00:04:43,800
+sigma then we calculate the differences in the
+
+52
+00:04:43,800 --> 00:04:47,460
+risk premium لأنه
+
+53
+00:04:47,460 --> 00:04:50,800
+احنا هتحملنا مخاطر أعلى فال return هيكون أعلى
+
+54
+00:04:50,800 --> 00:04:55,210
+فالخريطة تبعتنا من هان لكمان يومانيعني ال meeting
+
+55
+00:04:55,210 --> 00:04:59,530
+هذا مع ال meeting الجاي هنحكي بال how we estimate
+
+56
+00:04:59,530 --> 00:05:04,490
+the return then how we estimate sigma كيف نحسب ال
+
+57
+00:05:04,490 --> 00:05:07,670
+return و كيف نحسب ال sigma ال sigma اللي هو ال ..
+
+58
+00:05:07,670 --> 00:05:10,750
+ال sigma استعملها ال deviation و ال .. و ال
+
+59
+00:05:10,750 --> 00:05:14,710
+variance هنحكي فيها okay أخدتوها بال .. بال
+
+60
+00:05:14,710 --> 00:05:19,640
+statistics okay rates of returnاللي هو كيف نحسب ال
+
+61
+00:05:19,640 --> 00:05:23,700
+rate of return ال rate of return زي ما تشوفين بقى
+
+62
+00:05:23,700 --> 00:05:29,280
+b1 minus b0 plus d1 على b0 طبعا هذا ال rate of
+
+63
+00:05:29,280 --> 00:05:33,800
+return for the stockإذا بنحسب لأي stock بنقول اللي
+
+64
+00:05:33,800 --> 00:05:39,160
+هو B1 minus B node divided by B node plus D1 على B
+
+65
+00:05:39,160 --> 00:05:43,920
+node فإذا إحنا بنجمعهم مع بعض بتساوي B1 minus B
+
+66
+00:05:43,920 --> 00:05:51,160
+node على B node plus D1 إيش B1 مش B node أو D1؟ لو
+
+67
+00:05:51,160 --> 00:05:55,180
+إحنا أخدنا for instance stock one particular stock
+
+68
+00:05:55,180 --> 00:05:58,220
+for instance one particular stock
+
+69
+00:06:01,790 --> 00:06:08,130
+is we bought a stock of Baltim or a stock of BIC
+
+70
+00:06:08,130 --> 00:06:12,270
+شركة اسمها BIC موجودة في BIC موجودة في سوق فلسطين
+
+71
+00:06:12,270 --> 00:06:17,070
+الأوراق المالية ونفترض انه ال BIC 2.5 اشتريناها ع
+
+72
+00:06:17,070 --> 00:06:24,430
+2.5 so هذا ال buying price we bought the BIC at 2
+
+73
+00:06:24,430 --> 00:06:37,450
+.5 and we sold itat 4.75 وبيعناه على 4.75 4.75
+
+74
+00:06:37,450 --> 00:06:42,150
+during the holding period يعني خلال الفترة الزمنية
+
+75
+00:06:42,150 --> 00:06:45,730
+و احنا حاملين السهم we receive dividends we
+
+76
+00:06:45,730 --> 00:06:49,330
+receive dividends
+
+77
+00:06:49,330 --> 00:06:52,910
+dividends يعني توزيع الأرباح we receive dividends
+
+78
+00:06:52,910 --> 00:07:03,130
+at point twenty or point ten per shareيعني استلام
+
+79
+00:07:03,130 --> 00:07:09,690
+لأرباح point عشرة cents لكل سنة calculate the
+
+80
+00:07:09,690 --> 00:07:14,750
+holding period return يعني قداش العائد خلال الفترة
+
+81
+00:07:14,750 --> 00:07:17,870
+الزمنية فالعائد خلال ال .. you just apply the
+
+82
+00:07:17,870 --> 00:07:23,910
+equation بس احنا هنطبق المعادلة B1 شوفوا ال B1 you
+
+83
+00:07:23,910 --> 00:07:27,510
+have to know B1, B note and dividends ال B1 هي ال
+
+84
+00:07:27,510 --> 00:07:35,460
+buyingالـ B0 هي ال buying ال B1 ال selling و ال
+
+85
+00:07:35,460 --> 00:07:40,500
+dividends is the dividends اللي هو التوزيعات فبصف
+
+86
+00:07:40,500 --> 00:07:50,740
+الحل طبعا بيعناه على 2.75 2.75 فبصف الحل 2.75
+
+87
+00:07:50,740 --> 00:07:58,260
+minus 2.5 plus 0.10 divided 2.5
+
+88
+00:08:01,370 --> 00:08:09,070
+يعني B1 2.75 اللي احنا بيعناها على 2.75 اشتريناها
+
+89
+00:08:09,070 --> 00:08:16,130
+على 2.5 واخدنا dividends 0.10 و 2.5 اللي هو ال B
+
+90
+00:08:16,130 --> 00:08:23,170
+notes اللي هو ال buying فقدراش بتطلع الجواب عندكم؟
+
+91
+00:08:36,800 --> 00:08:41,060
+أربعة عاشر في الميلاد so the answer is fourteen
+
+92
+00:08:41,060 --> 00:08:46,460
+percent طيب لسه محلل اصنعش the
+
+93
+00:08:46,460 --> 00:08:52,140
+return .. the return is divided or is break down
+
+94
+00:08:52,140 --> 00:08:58,940
+into two types of return أي عائد .. فنات تبهوا عني
+
+95
+00:08:58,940 --> 00:09:01,180
+عائد .. أي عائد
+
+96
+00:09:04,060 --> 00:09:07,620
+أي عائد في الدنيا من أي استثمار بيعطيني two
+
+97
+00:09:07,620 --> 00:09:12,260
+different yields يعني بيعطيني عائدين باختلفة عن
+
+98
+00:09:12,260 --> 00:09:16,460
+بعض العائد الأول بيسموه capital gains بيسميه
+
+99
+00:09:16,460 --> 00:09:21,780
+capital gains عائد رأسمالي والعائد التاني بيسموه
+
+100
+00:09:21,780 --> 00:09:26,700
+dividends yield أو في ناس بيسموه current yield طيب
+
+101
+00:09:26,700 --> 00:09:31,780
+نطلع على المعادلة تبعتناحلتوه الكلام هذا حلتوه اه
+
+102
+00:09:31,780 --> 00:09:42,080
+لحظة حلتوه الكلام هذا okay نرجع
+
+103
+00:09:42,080 --> 00:09:48,200
+للمعادرة is b1 minus b0 نفس المعادرة هذه بس just
+
+104
+00:09:48,200 --> 00:09:54,400
+we break it up into two equations plus d1 divided
+
+105
+00:09:54,400 --> 00:09:59,620
+by b0طبعا هذه ال R هي نفس ال holding period اللي
+
+106
+00:09:59,620 --> 00:10:05,860
+هو ال return okay so it means the return has two
+
+107
+00:10:05,860 --> 00:10:09,960
+components ال return له two components يعني مكوّن
+
+108
+00:10:09,960 --> 00:10:14,400
+من من من شقين or two parts the first part this
+
+109
+00:10:14,400 --> 00:10:20,160
+part هذا ال part is known as capital gains
+
+110
+00:10:24,240 --> 00:10:34,200
+Capital Gain وهذا الجزء يعرف بـ Dividends Yields
+
+111
+00:10:34,200 --> 00:10:38,440
+لدينا اثنين جزءين مختلفة، الـ Capital Gains
+
+112
+00:10:38,440 --> 00:10:46,240
+وDividends Yields الـ Capital Gains تحدث فقط عندما
+
+113
+00:10:46,240 --> 00:10:50,710
+نبيع الأساتيعني ال capital gains بس بتحدث عندما
+
+114
+00:10:50,710 --> 00:10:54,210
+بنبيع ال assets بنعطيكوا مثال من الحياة العملية
+
+115
+00:10:54,210 --> 00:11:01,610
+تبعتنا لو احنا اشترينا مثلا بيت real estate
+
+116
+00:11:01,610 --> 00:11:05,370
+اشترينا البيت هذا ب 100 أرض دولار okay انتبهوا
+
+117
+00:11:05,370 --> 00:11:08,610
+معايا و ركزوا okay اشترينا البيت هذا by one
+
+118
+00:11:08,610 --> 00:11:16,530
+hundred thousand dollar the
+
+119
+00:11:16,530 --> 00:11:21,630
+real .. the houseor the building we bought the
+
+120
+00:11:21,630 --> 00:11:26,010
+building at one hundred thousand dollars هان ال
+
+121
+00:11:26,010 --> 00:11:30,190
+building طب
+
+122
+00:11:30,190 --> 00:11:33,490
+if I ask you calculate the capital gains and the
+
+123
+00:11:33,490 --> 00:11:37,290
+current yield or dividend yield the same current
+
+124
+00:11:37,290 --> 00:11:41,710
+yield يعني current yield it means العائد الجارى لو
+
+125
+00:11:41,710 --> 00:11:47,000
+أنا سألكم حسبولي قداش العائد الجارىthere is no
+
+126
+00:11:47,000 --> 00:11:51,380
+additional information مافيش عندي معلومات ان انا
+
+127
+00:11:51,380 --> 00:11:54,300
+how to calculate this if I add up a new
+
+128
+00:11:54,300 --> 00:11:57,740
+information اذا انا اضفتلكم معلومات جديدة قلتلكم
+
+129
+00:11:57,740 --> 00:12:01,660
+the owner of this building decided to rent or to
+
+130
+00:12:01,660 --> 00:12:07,920
+let كلمة let ايش معناه let let معناها انه يؤجر to
+
+131
+00:12:07,920 --> 00:12:11,690
+let the houselet the house يعني rent to let the
+
+132
+00:12:11,690 --> 00:12:15,210
+house يعني يؤجر ال house to let the house for
+
+133
+00:12:15,210 --> 00:12:22,870
+instance by 6000 a year يعني
+
+134
+00:12:22,870 --> 00:12:27,510
+بده يؤجر البيت ب 6000 دولار بالسنة my question is
+
+135
+00:12:27,510 --> 00:12:30,770
+now there is a capital gain here؟ فيه capital
+
+136
+00:12:30,770 --> 00:12:33,350
+gains؟ إيش الموجود يعني ال capital gains ولا
+
+137
+00:12:33,350 --> 00:12:38,000
+current yield current yieldthere is no capital
+
+138
+00:12:38,000 --> 00:12:41,600
+gains لأن ال capital gains only occurs when we
+
+139
+00:12:41,600 --> 00:12:45,200
+sell the business يعني ال capital gains بحدث لما
+
+140
+00:12:45,200 --> 00:12:50,320
+بس احنا بيها as long as we are holding the
+
+141
+00:12:50,320 --> 00:12:55,780
+business it means we only receive a current yield
+
+142
+00:12:55,780 --> 00:12:58,960
+what is the current yield طب قداش ال current yield
+
+143
+00:12:58,960 --> 00:13:02,440
+خلينا نطبق ال equationاحنا ال equation قلنا P1
+
+144
+00:13:02,440 --> 00:13:06,860
+minus P0 divided by P0 plus اللي هو ال dividends
+
+145
+00:13:06,860 --> 00:13:11,660
+divided by P0 طبعا ال dividends احنا ماعناشه ال
+
+146
+00:13:11,660 --> 00:13:16,760
+dividends فى لنا ال let مظبوط اللي هو احنا الإيجار
+
+147
+00:13:16,760 --> 00:13:22,040
+طبعا هذه مش موجودة عندنا so we have only the
+
+148
+00:13:22,040 --> 00:13:24,780
+current yield يداشة ال current yield؟ six
+
+149
+00:13:24,780 --> 00:13:29,070
+thousands divided by one hundred thousandsso it
+
+150
+00:13:29,070 --> 00:13:35,610
+equals كده ألف على ألف تطلع ستة ألف six percent
+
+151
+00:13:35,610 --> 00:13:40,770
+six percent يعني احنا عندنا ال current yield هو
+
+152
+00:13:40,770 --> 00:13:47,090
+six percent okay just a minute if the owner
+
+153
+00:13:47,090 --> 00:13:50,190
+decided شوفوا كيف انا بدأ اعمل developments لل
+
+154
+00:13:50,190 --> 00:13:58,940
+equation if he or she decided to sell itانه يبيعها
+
+155
+00:13:58,940 --> 00:14:04,380
+and it makes .. okay and then it .. he sold this
+
+156
+00:14:04,380 --> 00:14:10,640
+at one hundred and twenty thousand dollar باقها
+
+157
+00:14:10,640 --> 00:14:13,680
+على مائة و عشرين ألف دولار المبنى بقوا على مائة و
+
+158
+00:14:13,680 --> 00:14:19,080
+عشرين ألف دولار طيب صديق هيكون عندنا ال equation
+
+159
+00:14:19,080 --> 00:14:19,680
+كانت تانية
+
+160
+00:14:22,460 --> 00:14:26,220
+Okay هلا عندك ال .. ال .. ال yields ال R هتساوي
+
+161
+00:14:26,220 --> 00:14:33,780
+again P1 minus P0 divided P0 plus let على P0
+
+162
+00:14:33,780 --> 00:14:37,520
+فتساوي P1 minus P0 one hundred twenty thousand
+
+163
+00:14:37,520 --> 00:14:42,040
+minus one hundred thousand divided by one hundred
+
+164
+00:14:42,040 --> 00:14:47,320
+thousand okay plus six thousand divided by one
+
+165
+00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:54,020
+hundred thousand okay nowjust one hundred twenty
+
+166
+00:14:54,020 --> 00:14:59,280
+thousands ناخدها هنا twenty percent plus six
+
+167
+00:14:59,280 --> 00:15:04,940
+percent so the total is twenty six percent واضحة
+
+168
+00:15:04,940 --> 00:15:07,980
+مية و عشرين ألف نقص مية ألف عشرين ألف على مية ألف
+
+169
+00:15:08,770 --> 00:15:12,050
+twenty percent six thousand على ميت ألف تطلع six
+
+170
+00:15:12,050 --> 00:15:15,830
+percent فال total is twenty six percent ستة و
+
+171
+00:15:15,830 --> 00:15:20,090
+عشرين في الميه of them اذا if we go back اذا
+
+172
+00:15:20,090 --> 00:15:23,490
+نتراجع بنقول انه twenty five percent is capital
+
+173
+00:15:23,490 --> 00:15:31,530
+gains and six percent is current yield okay
+
+174
+00:15:38,100 --> 00:15:45,100
+طيب باضح الأمور طيب إذا هو الرجال is .. هو تاجر
+
+175
+00:15:45,100 --> 00:15:50,760
+عقاراته، بدهوش يروح يأجر، يبيع بس، مش بيصير هيك؟
+
+176
+00:15:50,760 --> 00:15:55,340
+في ناس بيشتريوا العقار و بيأجروا، في ناس بيشتريوا
+
+177
+00:15:55,340 --> 00:15:58,600
+العقار، مابيأجروش يبيعوا على طول، ففي الحالة هذه
+
+178
+00:15:58,600 --> 00:16:02,120
+إيش بيكون فيها؟ بيكون الشقة التانية هذا مايكونش
+
+179
+00:16:02,120 --> 00:16:08,060
+موجود، just depends on this, twenty percent, okay؟
+
+180
+00:16:09,160 --> 00:16:17,500
+So this is the return لكن
+
+181
+00:16:17,500 --> 00:16:20,980
+الدنيا ماتمشيش بها البساطة هذه صح فيها ال
+
+182
+00:16:20,980 --> 00:16:31,180
+calculations لو كان عندي انا لو
+
+183
+00:16:31,180 --> 00:16:34,140
+كان عندي انا I invest in just only one building
+
+184
+00:16:34,140 --> 00:16:36,980
+انا استثمرت في building واحدة if I decided to
+
+185
+00:16:36,980 --> 00:16:43,020
+investin in more than one stock اذا انا عندى اربع
+
+186
+00:16:43,020 --> 00:16:50,580
+five four five stocks فال R ل ال different stocks
+
+187
+00:16:50,580 --> 00:16:57,280
+is equal the summation of R divided by N مظبوط
+
+188
+00:16:57,280 --> 00:17:00,300
+اللي هو ال average لو كان عندى انا number of
+
+189
+00:17:00,300 --> 00:17:07,550
+stocks R of stocks فبجيب ال summation of Rعلى ال
+
+190
+00:17:07,550 --> 00:17:12,290
+numbers تبعتهم طبعا على العدد تبعتهم هذا بيسموه ال
+
+191
+00:17:12,290 --> 00:17:16,630
+arithmetic هذا إيش بيسموه arithmetic ال arithmetic
+
+192
+00:17:16,630 --> 00:17:24,930
+average طيب this is the case if you invest in
+
+193
+00:17:24,930 --> 00:17:29,570
+stock one, stock two, stock three till stock n
+
+194
+00:17:30,620 --> 00:17:35,100
+العدد معاهم الأسهم جداش العائد تبعهم العائد هو
+
+195
+00:17:35,100 --> 00:17:39,800
+مجموع العواقد على عددهم مظبوط ال average تمام ال
+
+196
+00:17:39,800 --> 00:17:43,820
+average تبعهم okay
+
+197
+00:17:43,820 --> 00:17:47,020
+طيب
+
+198
+00:17:47,020 --> 00:17:52,880
+لو كان أنا عندي نرجع
+
+199
+00:17:52,880 --> 00:17:57,500
+لفكرة العقار لو كان أنا عندي هذا العقار 100 ألف
+
+200
+00:17:57,500 --> 00:17:57,820
+دولار
+
+201
+00:18:00,980 --> 00:18:07,700
+اللي هو B note and I'm thinking what is the rate
+
+202
+00:18:07,700 --> 00:18:12,660
+of return of this building for the next year ندى
+
+203
+00:18:12,660 --> 00:18:16,040
+أعرف العائد للسنة الجاية we don't know exactly
+
+204
+00:18:16,040 --> 00:18:18,820
+what is the rate of return for the next year نقدرش
+
+205
+00:18:18,820 --> 00:18:21,200
+نعرف بالظبط قداشة rate of return for the next year
+
+206
+00:18:21,200 --> 00:18:26,240
+so we are uncertain about the rate of return for
+
+207
+00:18:26,240 --> 00:18:31,270
+the next yearuncertain يعني غير متأكدين انه جداش
+
+208
+00:18:31,270 --> 00:18:38,450
+العقد بتاعنا ممكن يكون نبيع البيت ب110 ألف يعني
+
+209
+00:18:38,450 --> 00:18:44,390
+ممكن 120 ممكن نخسر 90 و يضلناه وبالتالي بنعطي
+
+210
+00:18:44,390 --> 00:18:50,350
+احتمالاتالبيعه 110 ممكن احتمالنا يكون 50% نبيعه
+
+211
+00:18:50,350 --> 00:18:56,310
+110 ممكن 120 احتمالنا 25% ممكن 90 ألف نبيعه احتمال
+
+212
+00:18:56,310 --> 00:19:03,790
+25 طب what is the expected price سهل نضرب كل واحدة
+
+213
+00:19:03,790 --> 00:19:10,030
+ال bi نضربها في ال price و بنجمعهم مع بعض طب if we
+
+214
+00:19:10,030 --> 00:19:13,850
+invest in the in the stocks اذا احنا بستهتمر في ال
+
+215
+00:19:13,850 --> 00:19:19,630
+stocksand we don't know the expected return for
+
+216
+00:19:19,630 --> 00:19:23,490
+the future يعني احنا بنستثمر في stock now and we
+
+217
+00:19:23,490 --> 00:19:25,710
+want to estimate the rate of return of a
+
+218
+00:19:25,710 --> 00:19:29,010
+particular stock for the future يعني احنا مستثمرين
+
+219
+00:19:29,010 --> 00:19:31,990
+في سهم الآن بدنا نعرف هذا السهم كده يعطينا عائد
+
+220
+00:19:31,990 --> 00:19:35,350
+السنة الجاية nobody knows exactly ماحدش يعرف
+
+221
+00:19:35,350 --> 00:19:40,640
+بالظبط but we try to predict نحاول نتنبأwe try to
+
+222
+00:19:40,640 --> 00:19:44,260
+forecast by using the probability نستخدم
+
+223
+00:19:44,260 --> 00:19:49,100
+الاحتمالات okay so let's see how it works طبعا هذا
+
+224
+00:19:49,100 --> 00:19:51,500
+كله شرحنا ال beginning price و ال ending price
+
+225
+00:19:51,500 --> 00:19:58,400
+okay and I give you the samples okay طيب هلأ نيجي
+
+226
+00:19:58,400 --> 00:19:59,580
+نحكي على الاحتمال
+
+227
+00:20:02,070 --> 00:20:05,010
+the expectation of r we use the expectation of r
+
+228
+00:20:05,010 --> 00:20:09,610
+the expectation of the of the rates of the return
+
+229
+00:20:09,610 --> 00:20:12,810
+for the future إذا ال expectation نستخدمها لفيوتر
+
+230
+00:20:12,810 --> 00:20:16,830
+the question is what is the expected return for
+
+231
+00:20:16,830 --> 00:20:22,160
+the future اتطلعوا على المثال اللي أعطاكواياانه
+
+232
+00:20:22,160 --> 00:20:26,460
+احنا بنضرب ال return بال probability look at it هي
+
+233
+00:20:26,460 --> 00:20:30,520
+is the summation of the probability of the state
+
+234
+00:20:30,520 --> 00:20:38,520
+احتمال الحدوث times the return of the state أخدته
+
+235
+00:20:38,520 --> 00:20:43,760
+هذا برياضية التجارين انا معتقد اه أخدته او إدارة
+
+236
+00:20:43,760 --> 00:20:49,260
+مالية أخدتهمش مهم كتير انه أخدته و ما أخدهوش احنا
+
+237
+00:20:49,260 --> 00:20:53,860
+بنحاول to bridge it to bridge it off to bridge it
+
+238
+00:20:53,860 --> 00:21:00,020
+off يعني نغطي الفجوة اه so we try to do this
+
+239
+00:21:00,020 --> 00:21:03,700
+ببساطة خليني just to summarize be attention here
+
+240
+00:21:03,700 --> 00:21:07,580
+you don't need to memorize لا تحاولوش انك تحفظوا
+
+241
+00:21:07,580 --> 00:21:13,280
+كتير just consider this case خدوا هال مثال البسيط
+
+242
+00:21:14,890 --> 00:21:17,390
+لو احنا if we think to invest in a particular
+
+243
+00:21:17,390 --> 00:21:22,210
+stock for the next year طبعا لما نحكي next year
+
+244
+00:21:22,210 --> 00:21:26,310
+نحكي for the future and you given this information
+
+245
+00:21:26,310 --> 00:21:34,350
+و أعطيناكوا هالمعلومات هذه the expected R and the
+
+246
+00:21:34,350 --> 00:21:39,670
+probability the probability of R to occur يعني
+
+247
+00:21:39,670 --> 00:21:40,830
+احتمال R انه تحدث
+
+248
+00:21:44,280 --> 00:21:51,840
+Okay بحط P probability YR for instance 40% we have
+
+249
+00:21:51,840 --> 00:21:55,920
+40% and
+
+250
+00:21:55,920 --> 00:21:59,320
+30
+
+251
+00:21:59,320 --> 00:22:09,380
+% 30% او خليني نسهلهم هان اربعين ناخد خمسة و عشرين
+
+252
+00:22:09,380 --> 00:22:15,820
+بيصير عندنا خمسة و ستين و بيبقى خمسة و تلاتينOkay
+
+253
+00:22:15,820 --> 00:22:20,840
+لازم يكون هدول مجموعهم مقداش؟ مية في المية okay
+
+254
+00:22:20,840 --> 00:22:26,520
+one hundred percent او واحد صحيح okay when the
+
+255
+00:22:26,520 --> 00:22:31,060
+probability forty percent the r we expect are ten
+
+256
+00:22:31,060 --> 00:22:35,420
+percent twenty five we expect seven percent and
+
+257
+00:22:35,420 --> 00:22:37,000
+here we expect four percent
+
+258
+00:22:40,440 --> 00:22:45,220
+القروش هو بيحكي expectation of R is equal to
+
+259
+00:22:45,220 --> 00:22:52,900
+summation of VI times RI مش مشكلة لو في كتب تستخدم
+
+260
+00:22:52,900 --> 00:22:57,960
+I في تستخدم S يعني بيه S or بيه I is the same يعني
+
+261
+00:22:57,960 --> 00:23:06,200
+احتمال في ال return طيب بنشوف ال B times ال R
+
+262
+00:23:06,200 --> 00:23:07,600
+احتمال
+
+263
+00:23:09,420 --> 00:23:19,160
+0.10×0.40 0.047×0.25 0.07×0
+
+264
+00:23:19,160 --> 00:23:24,320
+.25 0
+
+265
+00:23:24,320 --> 00:23:31,880
+.0175
+
+266
+00:23:31,880 --> 00:23:35,320
+0.0175
+
+267
+00:23:41,460 --> 00:23:50,220
+.014 طب summation اجمعهم مع بعض 0
+
+268
+00:23:50,220 --> 00:23:53,640
+.0715
+
+269
+00:23:53,640 --> 00:23:59,600
+يعني بتطلع الجوال اللي هو 7.15% إذا ال expected R
+
+270
+00:23:59,600 --> 00:24:07,020
+is equal to 7.15% طبعا البنات اللي معاهم ال
+
+271
+00:24:07,020 --> 00:24:12,540
+calculators يتأكدوا من ال ..من ال results طبعا و
+
+272
+00:24:12,540 --> 00:24:14,520
+البنات اللي معاهم مش calculator لما يرجعوا البيت
+
+273
+00:24:14,520 --> 00:24:17,800
+يتأكدوا من ال results لأنها سؤال جاي في الامتحانة
+
+274
+00:24:17,800 --> 00:24:23,120
+I know this is simple but when you go to exam
+
+275
+00:24:23,120 --> 00:24:29,180
+things بصير أشي صعب so the expected return this is
+
+276
+00:24:29,180 --> 00:24:31,840
+the expected return so far we talk about the
+
+277
+00:24:31,840 --> 00:24:38,580
+expected return and we don't talk about the risk
+
+278
+00:24:41,280 --> 00:24:45,900
+ماحكناش؟ عن المخاطر what is risk؟ مين بيقوللي إيش
+
+279
+00:24:45,900 --> 00:24:51,240
+ال risk؟ حكيناها في chapter one و chapter two what
+
+280
+00:24:51,240 --> 00:24:57,460
+is risk؟ إيش ال risk؟ شو المخاطر؟ what .. what is
+
+281
+00:24:57,460 --> 00:25:04,560
+the risk in investment؟ شو المخاطر؟ what is risk؟
+
+282
+00:25:04,560 --> 00:25:07,720
+و احنا قاعدين نحكي risk و risk و هذا و مخاطر و من
+
+283
+00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:19,900
+السنة الفاتة اهبس انخفاض الاسعار هذه المخاطر ايوة
+
+284
+00:25:19,900 --> 00:25:23,740
+هي اهم اشي is uncertainty ال risk هي is
+
+285
+00:25:23,740 --> 00:25:29,180
+uncertainty to get the expected rate of return لان
+
+286
+00:25:29,180 --> 00:25:37,040
+احنا مش متأكدين انه هيحدث ال return ولا لأ طيبلو
+
+287
+00:25:37,040 --> 00:25:39,840
+جينا احنا from the .. from the charge point of
+
+288
+00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:49,120
+view طلعوا ايش ال risk طلعوا
+
+289
+00:25:49,120 --> 00:25:54,340
+على ال ..
+
+290
+00:25:54,340 --> 00:26:01,640
+طلعوا هم لو جينا احنا أخدنا الخط هذا و احنا اليوم
+
+291
+00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:07,040
+كام التاريخ اليوم اتنين و عشرينلو قلناكوا بتقدروا
+
+292
+00:26:07,040 --> 00:26:15,460
+تتنبأوا ال 23 ايش هيكون السعر؟ ممكن تتنبأوا ولا مش
+
+293
+00:26:15,460 --> 00:26:20,060
+ممكن؟ طلعوا على الخط المستقيم مين بيقدر يقولي 23
+
+294
+00:26:20,060 --> 00:26:28,840
+وين احتمال يكون السعر؟ فحط خط عليه، شوف الخط يعني،
+
+295
+00:26:28,840 --> 00:26:37,180
+بالظبط، ليش؟ لأن هنا ال uncertaintyit's very low
+
+296
+00:26:37,180 --> 00:26:40,460
+ال uncertainty يعني احتمال عدم التأكد منخفضة يعني
+
+297
+00:26:40,460 --> 00:26:46,000
+خاطر منخفضة طيب احفظتوا هذا الرسمة ناخد رسمة اخرى
+
+298
+00:26:46,000 --> 00:26:52,520
+اذا هنا التأكد منخفض ترجع
+
+299
+00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:56,080
+يا ميا لل videos طيب
+
+300
+00:27:05,470 --> 00:27:12,030
+طيب احنا هلا ب 22 okay 22 مين
+
+301
+00:27:12,030 --> 00:27:18,130
+بيقدر يعمل ليه؟ هي موجودة
+
+302
+00:27:18,130 --> 00:27:23,650
+هيك okay إيش رأيك؟ بتأكد يعني؟ بس لما فات ما طلعت
+
+303
+00:27:23,650 --> 00:27:26,990
+كانت احتمال تأكد عالي صح؟ بس هلجيت إيش رأيك؟ تعالي
+
+304
+00:27:26,990 --> 00:27:31,430
+أعطيني ال possible وارجيني أشوف عشان نعرف what it
+
+305
+00:27:31,430 --> 00:27:32,370
+means uncertainty
+
+306
+00:27:35,590 --> 00:27:40,790
+متأكدة؟ لأ طب اخدت ال option التاني option التاني
+
+307
+00:27:40,790 --> 00:27:46,530
+ايوة يعني فيه انا خليني احتمالاتي اعمل مقاطع مقاطع
+
+308
+00:27:46,530 --> 00:27:52,910
+اعمل مقاطع على دي لأ مقاطع تاني واضح ايوة اذا فيه
+
+309
+00:27:52,910 --> 00:27:56,770
+انا احتمالين شوفوا في احتمالين the return is going
+
+310
+00:27:56,770 --> 00:28:02,060
+up or the return is going downإذا ال uncertainty
+
+311
+00:28:02,060 --> 00:28:07,440
+هان يا بنات ال uncertainty comparing with the
+
+312
+00:28:07,440 --> 00:28:13,140
+previous chart is lower or higher is higher just
+
+313
+00:28:13,140 --> 00:28:16,220
+depict this احفظوا الرسمة هالي خلينا ناخد رسمة
+
+314
+00:28:16,220 --> 00:28:23,440
+أخرى ليه يا شماي رسمتي ايه هى هى هى
+
+315
+00:28:30,130 --> 00:28:36,350
+مش سامع جولة انا يوم اتنين و عشرين اللي هو اليوم
+
+316
+00:28:36,350 --> 00:28:39,470
+لنا نعمل expectations لبكرا ل tomorrow اللي هو
+
+317
+00:28:39,470 --> 00:28:43,530
+تلاتة و عشرين فتلاتة و عشرين مش عارفين يعني هي حسب
+
+318
+00:28:43,530 --> 00:28:50,150
+ما حكت أسماء أسماء حمدية حسب ما حكت كانت احتمال
+
+319
+00:28:50,150 --> 00:28:55,570
+انه to go up or to go down مظبوط فمش متأكد لكن لما
+
+320
+00:28:55,570 --> 00:28:59,190
+طلعت فأنت ما حكت انه with a certainو .. و the
+
+321
+00:28:59,190 --> 00:29:03,010
+certain level احتمالات او احتمالات التأكد كانت
+
+322
+00:29:03,010 --> 00:29:09,830
+اعلى تمام؟ okay ناخد
+
+323
+00:29:09,830 --> 00:29:13,330
+مثال اخر ايش رأيكم؟
+
+324
+00:29:27,410 --> 00:29:34,090
+طيب بدنا نهلة إيه إيش رأيك؟ فوق؟ طيب؟ اعمل .. اعمل
+
+325
+00:29:34,090 --> 00:29:37,530
+.. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل ..
+
+326
+00:29:37,530 --> 00:29:37,550
+اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل ..
+
+327
+00:29:37,550 --> 00:29:38,330
+اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل ..
+
+328
+00:29:38,330 --> 00:29:38,950
+اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل ..
+
+329
+00:29:38,950 --> 00:29:47,630
+اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل .. اعمل ..
+
+330
+00:29:47,630 --> 00:29:56,690
+اعم
+
+331
+00:29:57,540 --> 00:30:02,600
+يعني لو احنا شوفنا التشارت الأول خلينا to .. to
+
+332
+00:30:02,600 --> 00:30:05,360
+get the pictures back .. to get the pictures back
+
+333
+00:30:05,360 --> 00:30:08,600
+ايش يعني to get the pictures back؟ خلينا نراجع
+
+334
+00:30:08,600 --> 00:30:12,140
+الصور التلاتة اللي احنا .. نحطهم هيك قدامها مع بعض
+
+335
+00:30:12,140 --> 00:30:15,260
+and to compare between the .. شوف
+
+336
+00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:30,480
+طبعا الصورة الأولى هي هذه الصورة الأولى احمد
+
+337
+00:30:30,480 --> 00:30:34,980
+التكييف عالي كتير خلاص switch it off اطفيه اطفيه
+
+338
+00:30:34,980 --> 00:30:38,620
+خلاص
+
+339
+00:30:38,620 --> 00:30:48,420
+طبعا
+
+340
+00:30:48,420 --> 00:30:50,840
+خلينا together picture back
+
+341
+00:30:53,920 --> 00:31:00,840
+أخدنا هذه و قولنا الاحتمال تأكد في هنا high
+
+342
+00:31:00,840 --> 00:31:06,100
+certainty تأكد
+
+343
+00:31:06,100 --> 00:31:12,080
+عالي في هنا moderate certainty و هنا high
+
+344
+00:31:12,080 --> 00:31:21,410
+uncertainty او بيسموها low certainty okay طيبhow
+
+345
+00:31:21,410 --> 00:31:24,690
+we measure this طب كيف احنا احنا الرسمة هيك okay
+
+346
+00:31:24,690 --> 00:31:29,910
+بس لكن كيف بدنا نقيسها هذا المعادل نقيس ال
+
+347
+00:31:29,910 --> 00:31:33,570
+expectations return نقيس ال expectations return
+
+348
+00:31:33,570 --> 00:31:39,810
+مابتقسش ال sigma طيب طالع علينا طب احنا لو حسبنا
+
+349
+00:31:39,810 --> 00:31:44,970
+ال average تبع هذا و بدنا نشوفأيش بيصير ال
+
+350
+00:31:44,970 --> 00:31:48,830
+deviation؟ ال deviation يعني النقاط خارج ال
+
+351
+00:31:48,830 --> 00:31:53,310
+average مافيش نقاط zero إذا هل ال uncertainty سو
+
+352
+00:31:53,310 --> 00:31:59,890
+سفر؟ يعني ال certainty سو one hundred percent طيب
+
+353
+00:31:59,890 --> 00:32:03,390
+خلينا ناخد ال average تبع هذا الخط ال average هذا
+
+354
+00:32:03,390 --> 00:32:08,880
+هو ال average تبع الخط الأزرقهذا ال average بنشوف
+
+355
+00:32:08,880 --> 00:32:11,620
+احنا فيه قيم تحت ال average و فيه قيم أعلى من ال
+
+356
+00:32:11,620 --> 00:32:15,820
+average هذا ال average هو ال certainty هو المؤكد و
+
+357
+00:32:15,820 --> 00:32:23,960
+هدوله قيم أعلى و أقل الفرج الفرج بين الفرج hand
+
+358
+00:32:23,960 --> 00:32:32,560
+شوفوا بنحسب الفرق قدر كده؟ كل ما بكون الفرج كبير
+
+359
+00:32:32,560 --> 00:32:38,900
+كل ما كان فيه risk أعلىطبعا فكيف بنقيسه هذا بنقيسه
+
+360
+00:32:38,900 --> 00:32:42,760
+ب sigma standard
+
+361
+00:32:42,760 --> 00:32:45,200
+or standard deviation او بنقيسه ب standard
+
+362
+00:32:45,200 --> 00:32:54,340
+deviation طب خينا ناخد هذا ناخد هذا اخدنا ال
+
+363
+00:32:54,340 --> 00:32:58,840
+average زيهم اخدنا ال average طب ال average زي ما
+
+364
+00:32:58,840 --> 00:33:06,250
+حكينا هو الفرقبين القيم كم تبعد عن ال average يعني
+
+365
+00:33:06,250 --> 00:33:09,870
+القيم كم تبعد عن ال average هذا هو بتلاحظوا
+
+366
+00:33:09,870 --> 00:33:13,890
+المسافة هذه قارنوها مع المسافة هذه أكبر ولا أكبر
+
+367
+00:33:13,890 --> 00:33:20,290
+إذا ال uncertainty أعلى إذا ال sigma هتكون أعلى ال
+
+368
+00:33:20,290 --> 00:33:24,630
+sigma إذا بتقارنه sigma بين هان و sigma هان كل
+
+369
+00:33:24,630 --> 00:33:29,490
+النقاط على الخط هان صفر طب sigma هان نفترض تكون
+
+370
+00:33:29,490 --> 00:33:37,620
+مثلا 6%ال sigma هتكون أعلى من 6% فإذا كل ما احنا
+
+371
+00:33:37,620 --> 00:33:41,480
+ال fluctuation هذا fluctuation ايش اسمه
+
+372
+00:33:41,480 --> 00:33:48,160
+fluctuation okay fluctuation هذا التذبذب كل ما
+
+373
+00:33:48,160 --> 00:33:53,860
+بيزيد شوفته تخطيط القلب كل ما بيصير احنا بنعرف انه
+
+374
+00:33:53,860 --> 00:33:59,100
+ضربات القلب كل ما بتكون غير منتظمةبكون في .. فششي
+
+375
+00:33:59,100 --> 00:34:03,840
+monotic فششي انتظام بدربات القلب فهذا بيكون المريض
+
+376
+00:34:03,840 --> 00:34:08,940
+في خطر okay we don't know فإذا كان الوضع بهذا
+
+377
+00:34:08,940 --> 00:34:15,980
+الشكل هذا بيكون هذا في خطر لكن إذا كان الوضع طبيعي
+
+378
+00:34:15,980 --> 00:34:22,560
+مثلا مثل هك ف okay هذا طبيعي يعني في ..انتظام في
+
+379
+00:34:22,560 --> 00:34:27,320
+ضربات القلب بس ملاحظها ان مافيش انتظام في risk
+
+380
+00:34:27,320 --> 00:34:32,660
+عالي جدا فكل ما بتعدد القيم شوفوا القيم كده بعيدة
+
+381
+00:34:32,660 --> 00:34:36,980
+عن ال average على المتوسط كل ما القيم بعددت على
+
+382
+00:34:36,980 --> 00:34:42,580
+المتوسط كل ما ال sigma كبرت كل ما زادت المخاطر how
+
+383
+00:34:42,580 --> 00:34:45,820
+we calculate sigma كيف احنا ممكن نحسب ال sigma
+
+384
+00:34:45,820 --> 00:34:54,610
+ببساطة ال sigmaسيجما تربيع is اللي هو فاكري ان ال
+
+385
+00:34:54,610 --> 00:35:06,050
+R minus R R minus expectation of R ال B I مجموعة
+
+386
+00:35:06,050 --> 00:35:14,130
+مجموعة ال B I times R minus expectation of R هذا
+
+387
+00:35:14,130 --> 00:35:19,620
+هو السيجما تربيع طبعا سوري هنا power twoهو اتنين
+
+388
+00:35:19,620 --> 00:35:23,300
+أخدتوه هذا بال statistics بالإحصاء .. بإحصاء
+
+389
+00:35:23,300 --> 00:35:27,720
+أخدتوه بالرياضيات التجاريين أخدتوه في financial
+
+390
+00:35:27,720 --> 00:35:31,020
+management okay فإن شاء الله next meeting انا
+
+391
+00:35:31,020 --> 00:35:37,160
+أحاول أعملكم سؤال عليه نحله كله مع بعض okay فهذا
+
+392
+00:35:37,160 --> 00:35:45,240
+.. هاي معطيكوا لي فعل هان طلعوا هان ال probability
+
+393
+00:35:46,880 --> 00:35:51,520
+نفس المعادلة اللي اعطيتك إياها نحسب ال ER حسبتلك
+
+394
+00:35:51,520 --> 00:35:55,380
+إياها بالمثال السابق okay بتطلع هذا الجواب هل لما
+
+395
+00:35:55,380 --> 00:35:58,440
+نحسب ال sigma تربيع نفس المعادلة اللي اعطيتك إياها
+
+396
+00:35:58,440 --> 00:36:03,880
+okay ال standard deviation هو شوفتوا احنا بنستخدم
+
+397
+00:36:03,880 --> 00:36:05,600
+ال sigma or standard deviation
+
+398
+00:36:09,430 --> 00:36:14,650
+نعيد نفس المثال و بنروح ال probability R minus I
+
+399
+00:36:14,650 --> 00:36:18,270
+بترجعوه في البيت و بتشوفوا انتوا كيف الوضع طلع
+
+400
+00:36:18,270 --> 00:36:24,510
+معاكم وصلنا لعند number 22 في حد عندك سؤال يا
+
+401
+00:36:24,510 --> 00:36:24,950
+بنات؟
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/6BuC-Qe9zEA_raw.json b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/6BuC-Qe9zEA_raw.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..2725bd8ae5002964b773043bab9968fbf5dc6fd6
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/6BuC-Qe9zEA_raw.json
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"segments": [{"id": 1, "seek": 5017, "start": 20.67, "end": 50.17, "text": "بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم المرة الأولى اتخذنا كيف نحسب ال variance و ال standard deviation القانون و طلبنا منكم انه في ال .. في البيت تحاولوا تعيدوا للحل فى حد عاد الحل و طلع عنده إجابات غلط يا بات فى حد رجع البيت و عاد الحل و طلع عنده مش نفس الإجابة اللى موجودة هنا لأنه فى الامتحان هجيكم مثال مشابه له", "tokens": [3555, 38251, 21984, 34892, 5016, 27842, 34892, 5016, 32640, 9673, 25720, 16247, 12610, 7578, 1975, 2655, 9778, 8848, 8315, 9122, 33911, 8717, 5016, 35457, 2423, 21977, 4032, 2423, 3832, 25163, 25062, 7649, 11536, 4032, 23032, 46152, 8315, 9154, 24793, 16472, 3224, 8978, 2423, 4386, 8978, 2423, 21292, 2655, 6055, 5016, 995, 12610, 14407, 37279, 25708, 14407, 24976, 5016, 1211, 6156, 7578, 11331, 3215, 6225, 18513, 21542, 1211, 4032, 23032, 1211, 3615, 43242, 3224, 11933, 7435, 16758, 9307, 32771, 1211, 9566, 35186, 4724, 9307, 6156, 7578, 11331, 3215, 12602, 7435, 3615, 2423, 21292, 2655, 4032, 6225, 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{"start": 267.08, "end": 268.8, "word": " المجموعة", "probability": 0.881494140625}, {"start": 268.8, "end": 269.3, "word": " تعرفى", "probability": 0.7364501953125}, {"start": 269.3, "end": 270.32, "word": " محاسبيا", "probability": 0.77236328125}, {"start": 270.32, "end": 270.58, "word": " او", "probability": 0.899169921875}, {"start": 270.58, "end": 271.16, "word": " رياضيا", "probability": 0.9820556640625}, {"start": 271.16, "end": 271.74, "word": " اللى", "probability": 0.941650390625}, {"start": 271.74, "end": 271.86, "word": " هو", "probability": 0.90283203125}, {"start": 271.86, "end": 272.18, "word": " واحد", "probability": 0.918212890625}, {"start": 272.18, "end": 272.32, "word": " على", "probability": 0.708984375}, {"start": 272.32, "end": 272.62, "word": " N", "probability": 0.693359375}, {"start": 272.62, "end": 273.94, "word": " مجموعة", "probability": 0.93798828125}, {"start": 273.94, "end": 274.26, "word": " R", "probability": 0.85986328125}, {"start": 274.26, "end": 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0.7014567057291666}, {"start": 338.13, "end": 338.35, "word": " تبعت", "probability": 0.7223307291666666}, {"start": 338.35, "end": 338.73, "word": " وخمسين", "probability": 0.83251953125}, {"start": 338.73, "end": 339.03, "word": " دولار", "probability": 0.98828125}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 12, "seek": 36615, "start": 340.05, "end": 366.15, "text": "بنهاية السنة التانية صارت الفروة تبعت مية دولار he started by one hundred and then he end by one hundred what is the return؟ كدهش العائد؟ يعني هو بدأ بمية و خلص بمية، كدهش استفاد من هالشغل؟ خمسين خمسين؟ هو بدأ يعني في .. بدأ معاه مية دولار و انتهى بمية دولار، اش ولا اش؟ اش ولا اش يعني what it means ولا اش؟ zero", "tokens": [3555, 1863, 11296, 10632, 21136, 1863, 3660, 16712, 7649, 10632, 20328, 9640, 2655, 27188, 32887, 3660, 6055, 3555, 34268, 3714, 10632, 11778, 12610, 9640, 415, 1409, 538, 472, 3262, 293, 550, 415, 917, 538, 472, 3262, 437, 307, 264, 2736, 22807, 9122, 3215, 3224, 8592, 18863, 16373, 3215, 22807, 37495, 22653, 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0.407470703125}, {"start": 363.37, "end": 363.99, "word": " ولا", "probability": 0.90283203125}, {"start": 363.99, "end": 364.19, "word": " اش؟", "probability": 0.6943359375}, {"start": 364.19, "end": 364.35, "word": " اش", "probability": 0.758056640625}, {"start": 364.35, "end": 364.49, "word": " ولا", "probability": 0.92333984375}, {"start": 364.49, "end": 364.67, "word": " اش", "probability": 0.931640625}, {"start": 364.67, "end": 364.83, "word": " يعني", "probability": 0.8212890625}, {"start": 364.83, "end": 364.97, "word": " what", "probability": 0.5537109375}, {"start": 364.97, "end": 365.09, "word": " it", "probability": 0.91650390625}, {"start": 365.09, "end": 365.27, "word": " means", "probability": 0.94677734375}, {"start": 365.27, "end": 365.41, "word": " ولا", "probability": 0.875}, {"start": 365.41, "end": 365.73, "word": " اش؟", "probability": 0.8336588541666666}, {"start": 365.73, "end": 366.15, "word": " zero", "probability": 0.66259765625}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 13, "seek": 39561, "start": 368.23, "end": 395.61, "text": "so zero because P1 minus P naught على P naught لأن P1 هي ال ending price فمية minus مية على مية so it's equal to zero طيب احنا عاملين ايش سوينا we consider the investment as a one period time يعني اعتبرنا ال investment كل فترة زمنية واحدة okay", "tokens": [539, 4018, 570, 430, 16, 3175, 430, 13138, 15844, 430, 13138, 5296, 33456, 430, 16, 39896, 2423, 8121, 3218, 6156, 2304, 10632, 3175, 3714, 10632, 15844, 3714, 10632, 370, 309, 311, 2681, 281, 4018, 23032, 1829, 3555, 1975, 5016, 8315, 6225, 10943, 1211, 9957, 1975, 1829, 8592, 8608, 45865, 8315, 321, 1949, 264, 6078, 382, 257, 472, 2896, 565, 37495, 22653, 1975, 34268, 26890, 8315, 2423, 6078, 28242, 6156, 2655, 25720, 30767, 27842, 10632, 36764, 24401, 3660, 1392], "avg_logprob": -0.2626582195487204, "compression_ratio": 1.4298642533936652, "no_speech_prob": 5.960464477539063e-08, "words": [{"start": 368.23, "end": 368.49, "word": "so", "probability": 0.10205078125}, 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" ال", "probability": 0.65869140625}, {"start": 375.81, "end": 376.23, "word": " ending", "probability": 0.94677734375}, {"start": 376.23, "end": 376.79, "word": " price", "probability": 0.95458984375}, {"start": 376.79, "end": 378.21, "word": " فمية", "probability": 0.6727701822916666}, {"start": 378.21, "end": 379.11, "word": " minus", "probability": 0.71240234375}, {"start": 379.11, "end": 379.85, "word": " مية", "probability": 0.96533203125}, {"start": 379.85, "end": 380.37, "word": " على", "probability": 0.859375}, {"start": 380.37, "end": 380.77, "word": " مية", "probability": 0.97607421875}, {"start": 380.77, "end": 381.23, "word": " so", "probability": 0.703125}, {"start": 381.23, "end": 381.47, "word": " it's", "probability": 0.72216796875}, {"start": 381.47, "end": 381.73, "word": " equal", "probability": 0.7724609375}, {"start": 381.73, "end": 381.79, "word": " to", "probability": 0.60302734375}, {"start": 381.79, "end": 382.09, "word": " zero", "probability": 0.849609375}, 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390.87, "end": 391.19, "word": " period", "probability": 0.9130859375}, {"start": 391.19, "end": 391.53, "word": " time", "probability": 0.77294921875}, {"start": 391.53, "end": 392.41, "word": " يعني", "probability": 0.97607421875}, {"start": 392.41, "end": 392.87, "word": " اعتبرنا", "probability": 0.971923828125}, {"start": 392.87, "end": 393.05, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.88525390625}, {"start": 393.05, "end": 393.47, "word": " investment", "probability": 0.96826171875}, {"start": 393.47, "end": 393.75, "word": " كل", "probability": 0.98974609375}, {"start": 393.75, "end": 394.05, "word": " فترة", "probability": 0.9873046875}, {"start": 394.05, "end": 394.39, "word": " زمنية", "probability": 0.900390625}, {"start": 394.39, "end": 394.81, "word": " واحدة", "probability": 0.9635416666666666}, {"start": 394.81, "end": 395.61, "word": " okay", "probability": 0.87255859375}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 14, "seek": 42715, "start": 397.85, "end": 427.15, "text": "now there is other options to calculate return ممكن حد يفكر بطريقة تانية كيف ممكن نحسب ال return يعني احنا حكينا zero which is okay نفسني ممكن يعني خسر خمسين مظبوط و بعدين بدأ بخمسين كسب كم؟ خمسين طيب طب خمسين ماخص خمسين صفر صح؟", "tokens": [3785, 456, 307, 661, 3956, 281, 8873, 2736, 3714, 43020, 11331, 3215, 7251, 5172, 37983, 4724, 9566, 16572, 28671, 6055, 7649, 10632, 9122, 33911, 3714, 43020, 8717, 5016, 35457, 2423, 2736, 37495, 22653, 1975, 5016, 8315, 11331, 4117, 1829, 8315, 4018, 597, 307, 1392, 8717, 36178, 22653, 3714, 43020, 37495, 22653, 16490, 3794, 2288, 16490, 2304, 3794, 9957, 3714, 19913, 3555, 2407, 9566, 4032, 39182, 9957, 47525, 10721, 4724, 9778, 2304, 3794, 9957, 9122, 35457, 9122, 2304, 22807, 16490, 2304, 3794, 9957, 23032, 1829, 3555, 23032, 3555, 16490, 2304, 3794, 9957, 3714, 47283, 9381, 16490, 2304, 3794, 9957, 20328, 5172, 2288, 20328, 5016, 22807], "avg_logprob": -0.1750000034059797, "compression_ratio": 1.6525821596244132, "no_speech_prob": 1.7881393432617188e-07, 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okay", "probability": 0.89794921875}, {"start": 409.65, "end": 410.93, "word": " نفسني", "probability": 0.4409993489583333}, {"start": 410.93, "end": 411.35, "word": " ممكن", "probability": 0.98876953125}, {"start": 411.35, "end": 416.87, "word": " يعني", "probability": 0.6915283203125}, {"start": 416.87, "end": 417.37, "word": " خسر", "probability": 0.8649088541666666}, {"start": 417.37, "end": 417.81, "word": " خمسين", "probability": 0.9371337890625}, {"start": 417.81, "end": 419.59, "word": " مظبوط", "probability": 0.8767578125}, {"start": 419.59, "end": 419.81, "word": " و", "probability": 0.36328125}, {"start": 419.81, "end": 420.17, "word": " بعدين", "probability": 0.9521484375}, {"start": 420.17, "end": 420.41, "word": " بدأ", "probability": 0.919677734375}, {"start": 420.41, "end": 420.89, "word": " بخمسين", "probability": 0.94638671875}, {"start": 420.89, "end": 421.67, "word": " كسب", "probability": 0.781005859375}, {"start": 421.67, "end": 423.31, "word": " كم؟", "probability": 0.5674641927083334}, {"start": 423.31, "end": 423.93, "word": " خمسين", "probability": 0.9307861328125}, {"start": 423.93, "end": 424.95, "word": " طيب", "probability": 0.9007161458333334}, {"start": 424.95, "end": 425.35, "word": " طب", "probability": 0.6387939453125}, {"start": 425.35, "end": 425.73, "word": " خمسين", "probability": 0.9853515625}, {"start": 425.73, "end": 426.03, "word": " ماخص", "probability": 0.5404866536458334}, {"start": 426.03, "end": 426.39, "word": " خمسين", "probability": 0.9881591796875}, {"start": 426.39, "end": 426.65, "word": " صفر", "probability": 0.9187825520833334}, {"start": 426.65, "end": 427.15, "word": " صح؟", "probability": 0.8795572916666666}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 15, "seek": 45352, "start": 427.48, "end": 453.52, "text": "طيب خلينا ن .. ن .. ندورلكم بيها شوية هلأ احنا هخسر خمسين صح؟ طيب لو جينا احنا قولنا minus fifty divided by one hundred مظبوط لأن هو خسر خمسين على المية اللي هو البدأ الاستثمار okay في الفترة الأولى كام خسر؟ minus fifty percent", "tokens": [9566, 1829, 3555, 16490, 1211, 9957, 995, 8717, 4386, 8717, 4386, 8717, 3215, 13063, 23275, 2304, 4724, 1829, 11296, 13412, 2407, 10632, 8032, 1211, 10721, 1975, 5016, 8315, 8032, 9778, 3794, 2288, 16490, 2304, 3794, 9957, 20328, 5016, 22807, 23032, 1829, 3555, 45164, 10874, 1829, 8315, 1975, 5016, 8315, 12174, 12610, 8315, 3175, 13442, 6666, 538, 472, 3262, 3714, 19913, 3555, 2407, 9566, 5296, 33456, 31439, 16490, 3794, 2288, 16490, 2304, 3794, 9957, 15844, 9673, 10632, 13672, 1829, 31439, 29739, 3215, 10721, 42963, 14851, 12984, 2304, 9640, 1392, 8978, 27188, 2655, 25720, 16247, 12610, 7578, 9122, 10943, 16490, 3794, 2288, 22807, 3175, 13442, 3043], "avg_logprob": -0.20892857142857144, "compression_ratio": 1.6255707762557077, "no_speech_prob": 5.960464477539063e-08, "words": [{"start": 427.48, "end": 427.8, "word": "طيب", "probability": 0.8409830729166666}, {"start": 427.8, "end": 428.28, "word": " خلينا", "probability": 0.79156494140625}, 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"word": " لأن", "probability": 0.5953369140625}, {"start": 443.84, "end": 444.02, "word": " هو", "probability": 0.89453125}, {"start": 444.02, "end": 444.4, "word": " خسر", "probability": 0.98779296875}, {"start": 444.4, "end": 444.9, "word": " خمسين", "probability": 0.9893798828125}, {"start": 444.9, "end": 445.12, "word": " على", "probability": 0.88916015625}, {"start": 445.12, "end": 445.5, "word": " المية", "probability": 0.912841796875}, {"start": 445.5, "end": 446.12, "word": " اللي", "probability": 0.93701171875}, {"start": 446.12, "end": 446.22, "word": " هو", "probability": 0.96728515625}, {"start": 446.22, "end": 446.5, "word": " البدأ", "probability": 0.6155598958333334}, {"start": 446.5, "end": 447.04, "word": " الاستثمار", "probability": 0.91845703125}, {"start": 447.04, "end": 448.48, "word": " okay", "probability": 0.7490234375}, {"start": 448.48, "end": 449.28, "word": " في", "probability": 0.46435546875}, {"start": 449.28, "end": 449.56, "word": " الفترة", 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geometric فتاخدهم من المكتب هم موجودين okay تركتهم في المكتب صح؟ اه okay اذا the one the geometric the geometric is equal zero and the arithmetic is equal twenty five percent", "tokens": [10721, 8315, 11331, 4117, 36081, 8978, 5551, 25513, 3615, 20328, 5172, 5016, 9307, 16490, 2304, 3794, 20328, 5172, 5016, 9307, 5551, 3615, 9566, 36081, 16095, 24976, 3555, 8315, 2655, 7251, 20498, 6055, 1211, 2655, 9957, 9957, 8032, 3215, 12610, 4724, 1829, 2407, 11242, 5016, 14407, 2423, 42973, 4032, 2423, 33246, 6156, 2655, 47283, 3215, 16095, 9154, 9673, 4117, 2655, 3555, 8032, 2304, 3714, 29245, 23328, 9957, 1392, 6055, 31747, 2655, 16095, 8978, 9673, 4117, 2655, 3555, 20328, 5016, 22807, 1975, 3224, 1392, 1975, 15730, 264, 472, 264, 33246, 264, 33246, 307, 2681, 4018, 293, 264, 42973, 307, 2681, 7699, 1732, 3043], "avg_logprob": -0.21599264355266795, "compression_ratio": 1.6535087719298245, "no_speech_prob": 1.1920928955078125e-07, "words": [{"start": 703.99, "end": 704.27, "word": "أنا", 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generally speaking the result of arithmetic is greater than the result of geometric في كل الحلات يا .. في كل الحلات لما نحسب ال arithmetic، pay attention here in all cases when we calculate the arithmetic and when we calculate the geometric, arithmetic is greater than geometric", "tokens": [7649, 2655, 3555, 3224, 14407, 12399, 5101, 4124, 264, 1874, 295, 42973, 307, 5044, 813, 264, 1874, 295, 33246, 8978, 28242, 21542, 1211, 9307, 35186, 4386, 8978, 28242, 21542, 1211, 9307, 5296, 15042, 8717, 5016, 35457, 2423, 42973, 12399, 1689, 3202, 510, 294, 439, 3331, 562, 321, 8873, 264, 42973, 293, 562, 321, 8873, 264, 33246, 11, 42973, 307, 5044, 813, 33246], "avg_logprob": -0.20014881661960057, "compression_ratio": 1.8066298342541436, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 732.13, "end": 732.93, "word": "انتبهوا،", "probability": 0.8314005533854166}, {"start": 732.93, "end": 733.45, "word": " generally", "probability": 0.356689453125}, {"start": 733.45, "end": 734.15, "word": " 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اتلاتة اربعة خمسة", "tokens": [1863, 8592, 38688, 23032, 3555, 3714, 33599, 1829, 8717, 8592, 38688, 23032, 1211, 3615, 12610, 1829, 10874, 14407, 3555, 35186, 4724, 8315, 2655, 16490, 2304, 3794, 3660, 935, 44650, 10721, 4117, 3215, 22807, 32771, 1211, 9566, 1975, 8315, 44650, 10721, 4117, 3215, 370, 309, 311, 472, 935, 1732, 23032, 1829, 3555, 472, 935, 1732, 1975, 1829, 8592, 25062, 7649, 11536, 4724, 1829, 5016, 4117, 1829, 22807, 472, 935, 1732, 44945, 5016, 9566, 264, 1347, 295, 36764, 24401, 15844, 297, 2423, 297, 12174, 3215, 33599, 36764, 24401, 1975, 2655, 1863, 7578, 1975, 2655, 1211, 9307, 3660, 1975, 25513, 27884, 16490, 2304, 3794, 3660], "avg_logprob": -0.2442354435480914, "compression_ratio": 1.694736842105263, "no_speech_prob": 1.7881393432617188e-07, "words": [{"start": 1040.02, "end": 1040.74, "word": "نشوف", "probability": 0.73876953125}, {"start": 1040.74, "end": 1041.46, "word": " طب", "probability": 0.800537109375}, {"start": 1041.46, "end": 1041.68, "word": " 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ال chapter okay عشان تتابعوا معايا انتوا في صفحه في صفحه 132 التقصير تبعه okay تفضلي يا عمال okay هلا طب اذا the difference between this and this انت تبقى انا", "tokens": [6027, 7187, 6055, 3555, 3615, 24793, 3714, 29245, 23328, 9673, 9381, 13063, 22807, 1975, 3615, 9566, 9957, 1829, 2423, 7187, 2423, 7187, 1392, 6225, 8592, 7649, 6055, 2655, 16758, 3615, 14407, 20449, 995, 25528, 16472, 2655, 14407, 8978, 20328, 5172, 5016, 3224, 8978, 20328, 5172, 5016, 3224, 3705, 17, 16712, 4587, 9381, 13546, 6055, 3555, 3615, 3224, 1392, 6055, 5172, 11242, 20292, 35186, 6225, 2304, 6027, 1392, 8032, 15040, 23032, 3555, 1975, 15730, 264, 2649, 1296, 341, 293, 341, 16472, 2655, 6055, 3555, 4587, 7578, 1975, 8315], "avg_logprob": -0.24236505885015835, "compression_ratio": 1.5846153846153845, "no_speech_prob": 2.384185791015625e-07, "words": [{"start": 1296.27, "end": 1296.55, "word": "ال", "probability": 0.92333984375}, {"start": 1296.55, "end": 1296.91, "word": " chapter", "probability": 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"probability": 0.9680989583333334}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 54, "seek": 154724, "start": 1518.16, "end": 1547.24, "text": "what is the difference between them؟ كده الفرق بينهم؟ اتنين غلط شايفين كيف؟ لينا مش عارفة مش مبسوط الف how you calculate this؟ كيف حسبتيها؟ الفرق بينهم الف طب ليش انتوا لما اجيتوا حكيتوا الفرق بين الخمسة والعشرة قلتوا خمسة؟", "tokens": [5479, 307, 264, 2649, 1296, 552, 22807, 9122, 3215, 3224, 27188, 2288, 4587, 49374, 16095, 22807, 1975, 2655, 1863, 9957, 32771, 1211, 9566, 13412, 995, 33911, 9957, 9122, 33911, 22807, 32239, 8315, 37893, 6225, 9640, 5172, 3660, 37893, 3714, 3555, 3794, 2407, 9566, 27188, 577, 291, 8873, 341, 22807, 9122, 33911, 11331, 35457, 31371, 11296, 22807, 27188, 2288, 4587, 49374, 16095, 27188, 23032, 3555, 32239, 8592, 16472, 2655, 14407, 5296, 15042, 1975, 7435, 36081, 14407, 11331, 4117, 36081, 14407, 27188, 2288, 4587, 49374, 33962, 2304, 3794, 3660, 16070, 3615, 8592, 25720, 12174, 1211, 2655, 14407, 16490, 2304, 3794, 3660, 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is equal to arithmetic minus half of sigma two أو sigma تربيه", "tokens": [1863, 2407, 36150, 4724, 23557, 1829, 3794, 6225, 42213, 14407, 10874, 16373, 11622, 3660, 8717, 2407, 36150, 13672, 1829, 4724, 1829, 8592, 2655, 17082, 1211, 14407, 8978, 9673, 2407, 46958, 40228, 29538, 13672, 1829, 31439, 3714, 9640, 4117, 2407, 36081, 3794, 4032, 4032, 1829, 20292, 10943, 13412, 9640, 3555, 1975, 15730, 27188, 2288, 4587, 49374, 2423, 33246, 33246, 307, 2681, 281, 42973, 3175, 1922, 295, 12771, 732, 34051, 12771, 6055, 2288, 21292, 3224], "avg_logprob": -0.34712837717017614, "compression_ratio": 1.5053763440860215, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 1711.88, "end": 1712.3, "word": "نوبل", "probability": 0.5493876139322916}, {"start": 1712.3, "end": 1712.7, "word": " برايس", "probability": 0.9244384765625}, {"start": 1712.7, "end": 1713.06, "word": " عملوا", "probability": 0.7932942708333334}, {"start": 1713.06, "end": 1713.38, "word": " جائزة", "probability": 0.9111328125}, 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" the", "probability": 0.916015625}, {"start": 1877.14, "end": 1877.42, "word": " risk", "probability": 0.97265625}, {"start": 1877.42, "end": 1879.44, "word": " okay", "probability": 0.9208984375}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 68, "seek": 191114, "start": 1883.82, "end": 1911.14, "text": "هذا حساب العائد طبعا قالوا اذا قلنا اذا قلنا اتنين صح ال arithmetic لكن ال arithmetic is more common than any other than any other calculations يعني أكثر شيء هو ال arithmetic من other calculations okay طيب هاي طبعا أخدتواها المعادلة شرحنا لكواياها why is it geometric", "tokens": [3224, 15730, 11331, 3794, 16758, 18863, 16373, 3215, 23032, 3555, 3615, 995, 50239, 14407, 1975, 15730, 12174, 1211, 8315, 1975, 15730, 12174, 1211, 8315, 1975, 2655, 1863, 9957, 20328, 5016, 2423, 42973, 44381, 2423, 42973, 307, 544, 2689, 813, 604, 661, 813, 604, 661, 20448, 37495, 22653, 5551, 4117, 49115, 44049, 38207, 31439, 2423, 42973, 9154, 661, 20448, 1392, 23032, 1829, 3555, 8032, 47302, 23032, 3555, 3615, 995, 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0.8671875}, {"start": 1893.88, "end": 1894.26, "word": " other", "probability": 0.88525390625}, {"start": 1894.26, "end": 1896.38, "word": " than", "probability": 0.81982421875}, {"start": 1896.38, "end": 1896.66, "word": " any", "probability": 0.8857421875}, {"start": 1896.66, "end": 1896.92, "word": " other", "probability": 0.9033203125}, {"start": 1896.92, "end": 1897.68, "word": " calculations", "probability": 0.74853515625}, {"start": 1897.68, "end": 1898.32, "word": " يعني", "probability": 0.923095703125}, {"start": 1898.32, "end": 1898.64, "word": " أكثر", "probability": 0.7154947916666666}, {"start": 1898.64, "end": 1898.9, "word": " شيء", "probability": 0.55615234375}, {"start": 1898.9, "end": 1899.02, "word": " هو", "probability": 0.6318359375}, {"start": 1899.02, "end": 1899.1, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.98974609375}, {"start": 1899.1, "end": 1899.5, "word": " arithmetic", "probability": 0.982421875}, {"start": 1899.5, "end": 1899.86, "word": " من", "probability": 0.93212890625}, {"start": 1899.86, "end": 1900.1, "word": " other", "probability": 0.52294921875}, {"start": 1900.1, "end": 1900.8, "word": " calculations", "probability": 0.89306640625}, {"start": 1900.8, "end": 1902.28, "word": " okay", "probability": 0.4814453125}, {"start": 1902.28, "end": 1905.54, "word": " طيب", "probability": 0.953125}, {"start": 1905.54, "end": 1907.3, "word": " هاي", "probability": 0.716552734375}, {"start": 1907.3, "end": 1907.54, "word": " طبعا", "probability": 0.9727783203125}, {"start": 1907.54, "end": 1907.9, "word": " أخدتواها", "probability": 0.6649169921875}, {"start": 1907.9, "end": 1908.42, "word": " المعادلة", "probability": 0.9949951171875}, {"start": 1908.42, "end": 1909.62, "word": " شرحنا", "probability": 0.8353271484375}, {"start": 1909.62, "end": 1910.36, "word": " لكواياها", "probability": 0.698681640625}, {"start": 1910.36, "end": 1910.72, "word": " why", "probability": 0.5478515625}, {"start": 1910.72, "end": 1910.8, "word": " is", "probability": 0.430908203125}, {"start": 1910.8, "end": 1910.82, "word": " it", "probability": 0.5830078125}, {"start": 1910.82, "end": 1911.14, "word": " geometric", "probability": 0.78076171875}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 69, "seek": 194209, "start": 1918.21, "end": 1942.09, "text": "بنا نحسب ال sigma تربيع أخدناها أظن ال sigma تربيع كيف نحسبها اللي هو عندنا ال R minus R bar تربيه على 1 divided by N عشان نعمل نشيل ال bias طبعا نجيب الجزر على 1 N minus 1 نجيب عند sharp ratio", "tokens": [3555, 8315, 8717, 5016, 35457, 2423, 12771, 6055, 2288, 21292, 3615, 5551, 9778, 3215, 8315, 11296, 5551, 19913, 1863, 2423, 12771, 6055, 2288, 21292, 3615, 9122, 33911, 8717, 5016, 35457, 11296, 13672, 1829, 31439, 43242, 8315, 2423, 497, 3175, 497, 2159, 6055, 2288, 21292, 3224, 15844, 502, 6666, 538, 426, 6225, 8592, 7649, 8717, 25957, 1211, 8717, 8592, 26895, 2423, 12577, 23032, 3555, 3615, 995, 8717, 7435, 1829, 3555, 25724, 11622, 2288, 15844, 502, 426, 3175, 502, 8717, 7435, 1829, 3555, 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1921.99, "end": 1922.47, "word": " كيف", "probability": 0.797119140625}, {"start": 1922.47, "end": 1923.01, "word": " نحسبها", "probability": 0.99658203125}, {"start": 1923.01, "end": 1923.61, "word": " اللي", "probability": 0.87353515625}, {"start": 1923.61, "end": 1923.75, "word": " هو", "probability": 0.970703125}, {"start": 1923.75, "end": 1924.25, "word": " عندنا", "probability": 0.806396484375}, {"start": 1924.25, "end": 1924.69, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.896484375}, {"start": 1924.69, "end": 1925.21, "word": " R", "probability": 0.626953125}, {"start": 1925.21, "end": 1925.53, "word": " minus", "probability": 0.389892578125}, {"start": 1925.53, "end": 1925.77, "word": " R", "probability": 0.9873046875}, {"start": 1925.77, "end": 1925.95, "word": " bar", "probability": 0.29345703125}, {"start": 1925.95, "end": 1926.51, "word": " تربيه", "probability": 0.8831787109375}, {"start": 1926.51, "end": 1927.43, "word": " على", "probability": 0.4208984375}, {"start": 1927.43, "end": 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\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/6zLnu6MeG7M_postprocess.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/6zLnu6MeG7M_postprocess.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..b460641e7f08708c3debc9c47537497074dc4a6d
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/6zLnu6MeG7M_postprocess.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1952 @@
+1
+00:00:23,070 --> 00:00:27,510
+فبالنسبة للكتاب اللي احنا مقرنوه لهذا الكتاب موجود
+
+2
+00:00:27,510 --> 00:00:32,310
+على نسخة القصدية تبعته كل مرة انا بجيبلكم ال
+
+3
+00:00:32,310 --> 00:00:38,090
+chapter اللي بنحكي فيه طبعا هذا الكتاب لآخر نسخة
+
+4
+00:00:38,090 --> 00:00:43,870
+في ال investments طبعا هذا نسخة التاسعة ninth
+
+5
+00:00:43,870 --> 00:00:49,130
+edition و احنا من اللي هنكون focus ع الكتاب ال
+
+6
+00:00:49,130 --> 00:00:54,550
+slides هي headlinesتركز على headlines أكيد انه مش
+
+7
+00:00:54,550 --> 00:00:58,570
+هي .. الانتحار مش هيكون بال slides هيكون mainly
+
+8
+00:00:58,570 --> 00:01:03,470
+technical ف أثناء الشوارع إذا انتوا حسيتوا مش
+
+9
+00:01:03,470 --> 00:01:07,130
+واضحة الأمور ف raise your hand و you are free to
+
+10
+00:01:07,130 --> 00:01:11,690
+ask any question فإذا ماحدش برفع أيضا على plan you
+
+11
+00:01:11,690 --> 00:01:17,840
+understandOkay فهقلطي بتاع الشغل ماتخجلوه لأنه أنا
+
+12
+00:01:17,840 --> 00:01:19,820
+ما بعرفش شو أنتوا بتفكروا في ال .. في ال
+
+13
+00:01:19,820 --> 00:01:23,920
+investments وبالتالي أي شغلة أي مصطلح مش واضح اي
+
+14
+00:01:23,920 --> 00:01:29,240
+سؤال مش واضح وبالتالي لازم انه انتوا تسألوا ان
+
+15
+00:01:29,240 --> 00:01:33,740
+احنا هان جاي نتعلم مش هين .. بس نهز راسنا ونقول
+
+16
+00:01:33,740 --> 00:01:38,380
+okay كل شي مكتمون واحنا مش فاهمين ف please يعني
+
+17
+00:01:38,380 --> 00:01:43,310
+احنا موجودين هنعلمكم اهو بالتالي مابديش يعني حتى
+
+18
+00:01:43,310 --> 00:01:47,730
+نخرج من الفاعة و مافهماش هذا .. لأنه أنا في عند
+
+19
+00:01:47,730 --> 00:01:51,110
+perception أنه طالما أنه انا انتقلت للنقطة اللي
+
+20
+00:01:51,110 --> 00:01:54,410
+بعديها بكون معناه الكلام أنه the previous one is
+
+21
+00:01:54,410 --> 00:01:59,510
+understandable يعني so مش هيكون الاشي صعب عليكم
+
+22
+00:02:01,590 --> 00:02:05,790
+تمام؟ في آخر كل chapter في أسئلة بتحاولوا تسألوا
+
+23
+00:02:05,790 --> 00:02:09,010
+ال .. ال .. الأسئلة هذه و ان شاء الله يعني يكون ..
+
+24
+00:02:09,010 --> 00:02:13,690
+إذا في مشاكل في الأسئلة ترجعوا إليه و نتناقش فيها
+
+25
+00:02:13,690 --> 00:02:20,370
+أنا كمان طلبت من ال .. من الأستاذ الرئيس القسيم و
+
+26
+00:02:20,370 --> 00:02:23,610
+كان مشكور يعني واثق على أنه احنا نعمل discussion
+
+27
+00:02:23,610 --> 00:02:26,850
+عن مادة هذهفان شاء الله يكون في discussion بالمادة
+
+28
+00:02:26,850 --> 00:02:30,970
+لأنه في جزء كبير عامل منها وبالتالي هذا اشي ايجابي
+
+29
+00:02:30,970 --> 00:02:34,650
+يعني بساعدكم على ان انت تفهم المادة بشكل اكبر
+
+30
+00:02:34,650 --> 00:02:41,170
+تمام؟ ده ايه عن السؤال اللي بنسأله طبعا الأكل
+
+31
+00:02:41,170 --> 00:02:44,550
+ممنوع انتوا عارفين تعليمات الجامعة ال mobile
+
+32
+00:02:44,550 --> 00:02:48,760
+phones switch offيعني حتى أنا مابديشي ال mobile
+
+33
+00:02:48,760 --> 00:02:52,620
+phone تبعتي عندي، ايه؟ هي محطوطة في الشنطة و
+
+34
+00:02:52,620 --> 00:02:58,000
+معمولها silent و مابيبناش حد يتصل فينا أثناء
+
+35
+00:02:58,000 --> 00:03:02,920
+المحاضرة و أنتوا نفس الشغلة، طبعا؟ فأي طالبة أو أي
+
+36
+00:03:02,920 --> 00:03:05,160
+طالب بيكون عنده ال mobile phone محطوط على ال
+
+37
+00:03:05,160 --> 00:03:09,160
+desktop تبعه يعني أنا هيأثر على ال participation
+
+38
+00:03:09,160 --> 00:03:14,060
+تبعتهطبعا ف please يعني احنا جايين هنا ندرس
+
+39
+00:03:14,060 --> 00:03:18,420
+texting messages و الشغلات هذه اذا شغلات emergency
+
+40
+00:03:18,420 --> 00:03:23,140
+ترفع ايديك و تطلع برا و تعمل ايه ال texting من هلأ
+
+41
+00:03:23,140 --> 00:03:30,000
+اكتر okay ف .. هذا في حالة emergency يعني استغنيش
+
+42
+00:03:30,000 --> 00:03:33,520
+الأمر شغلات ان شاء الله يعني ما بنصل لمراحل ال ..
+
+43
+00:03:33,520 --> 00:03:38,920
+ال emergency هذه طبعا زي ما حكيله أنه احنا هدرج
+
+44
+00:03:38,920 --> 00:03:45,000
+على الكتابو ال slides فيه بالنسبة لل student اللي
+
+45
+00:03:45,000 --> 00:03:50,420
+هم بدهم يزيدوا المعرفة تبعتهم طبعا هذا مش هيدخل في
+
+46
+00:03:50,420 --> 00:03:56,020
+ال examهيكون في other references هتساعدهم يعني إذا
+
+47
+00:03:56,020 --> 00:03:59,040
+بدهم .. يعني are seeking more knowledge فإذا هم
+
+48
+00:03:59,040 --> 00:04:03,260
+بدهم أكتر معرفة، بدهم هذا فأنا هتركلهم references
+
+49
+00:04:03,260 --> 00:04:08,440
+و هتركلهم articles يقرؤوها في ال .. في البيت لكن
+
+50
+00:04:08,440 --> 00:04:11,960
+هذه مش داخلة في ال exams يعني احنا ال mainly ال
+
+51
+00:04:11,960 --> 00:04:16,060
+exam تبعتنا من الكتاب و من الشرح اللي احنا مشروحه
+
+52
+00:04:16,060 --> 00:04:21,570
+في اللقاءOkay هذا الاتفاق في حد عنده سؤال في
+
+53
+00:04:21,570 --> 00:04:27,050
+الموضوع قبل ما نحكي في .. هذا الكتاب؟ لأ مش هذا
+
+54
+00:04:27,050 --> 00:04:31,290
+الكتاب هذا ال chapter one فانا صورتلكوا ال chapter
+
+55
+00:04:31,290 --> 00:04:36,530
+one لأ هاي نصه اول اشه نصه ال introduction تبع
+
+56
+00:04:36,530 --> 00:04:40,930
+الكتاب و تعريف الكتاب و المواضيع هذه ممكن انا
+
+57
+00:04:40,930 --> 00:04:46,810
+اواجهيكوا الكتاب بس لأنه ال copyrightاحنا يعني
+
+58
+00:04:46,810 --> 00:04:51,670
+بحوالي عشر شباتر، هناخد حوالي عشر شباتر و انا يعني
+
+59
+00:04:51,670 --> 00:04:54,530
+اللقاء اللي جاي بتجيبلكم still a bus بس حاببت انه
+
+60
+00:04:54,530 --> 00:04:59,330
+العدد يكتمل بحيث انه يكون شرح كامل لل action بعد
+
+61
+00:04:59,330 --> 00:05:05,070
+ده okay فاحنا ماشيين، السبوع هذا هناخد فيه طبيعي
+
+62
+00:05:05,070 --> 00:05:12,090
+فبتحكوا ل .. لزميلاتكم انه يعني احنا يعني بدأنا
+
+63
+00:05:13,310 --> 00:05:19,210
+بحيث انه ي .. نستطيع انه نوصل المعلومة لأكبر عدد
+
+64
+00:05:19,210 --> 00:05:22,730
+ممكن من الطلاب بالنسبة لل .. زي ما حكي عن الكتاب
+
+65
+00:05:22,730 --> 00:05:27,030
+هو هذا investment كتاب أخر نسخة بال .. بال
+
+66
+00:05:27,030 --> 00:05:34,570
+investment كتاب يدرس في أغلب جامعات العالمو ينصح
+
+67
+00:05:34,570 --> 00:05:40,630
+سهل في .. في examples كتير بعدين بربطكم مع الواقع
+
+68
+00:05:40,630 --> 00:05:44,050
+مش هتكونوا يتغلبوا كتير في قراءة الكتاب حتى ال
+
+69
+00:05:44,050 --> 00:05:47,570
+language تبعته يعني language سهلة كتير مش هيكون
+
+70
+00:05:47,570 --> 00:05:51,090
+عندنا الصعوبة في التعامل مع هذا الكتاب ما تخافوش
+
+71
+00:05:51,090 --> 00:05:53,190
+هذا ال chapter أول مش هو هذا ال chapter أول هذا بس
+
+72
+00:05:53,190 --> 00:05:56,510
+ال introduction و أيش الزيادات اللي صارت بال ..
+
+73
+00:05:56,510 --> 00:05:59,950
+بال edition .. أخر edition يعني لو إيجينا احنا
+
+74
+00:05:59,950 --> 00:06:05,380
+نبدأ ال chapter هيبدأ من هذاهذا الجزء بس بعرفنا
+
+75
+00:06:05,380 --> 00:06:11,450
+بالكتاب و إيش .. طبعا أكيد مش حاجة نتحنم فيهبس
+
+76
+00:06:11,450 --> 00:06:13,730
+كويس تعرفوا شو الزيادات اللي صارت على ال edition
+
+77
+00:06:13,730 --> 00:06:16,530
+اللي فاتت هذا للناس اللي بدها تعرف الناس اللي هذا
+
+78
+00:06:16,530 --> 00:06:22,350
+انتوا مطالبين بال .. بالبدأة ال chapter okay فهدهو
+
+79
+00:06:22,350 --> 00:06:27,790
+بالنسبة لتوزيع الدراجات وهدي دايما اللي ممكن يكون
+
+80
+00:06:27,790 --> 00:06:33,290
+فيها شوية discussion فانا يعني حبيت اناقشها معكم
+
+81
+00:06:33,290 --> 00:06:36,790
+بحيث انه يعني يكون عندنا ال ..
+
+82
+00:06:44,820 --> 00:06:50,800
+طبعا زي ما انتوا بتعرفوا لازم يكون عندي اللي هو
+
+83
+00:06:50,800 --> 00:06:57,720
+midterm exam و لازم يكون عندي final exam هدول يعني
+
+84
+00:06:57,720 --> 00:07:04,560
+مابتغيروش ال midterm لو حكينا مثلا thirty و هنا
+
+85
+00:07:04,560 --> 00:07:12,020
+forty فبصير عندي seventy عندنا ال attendanceو ال
+
+86
+00:07:12,020 --> 00:07:19,580
+participation عنا ten و ال reports and assignments
+
+87
+00:07:19,580 --> 00:07:27,800
+اللي هو twenty okay فبصير عندي thirty forty sixty
+
+88
+00:07:27,800 --> 00:07:32,480
+one hundred okay فبصير عندي المجموع one hundred
+
+89
+00:07:32,480 --> 00:07:39,720
+نيجي نحكي واحدة واحدة واحدة واحدة ال midterm exam
+
+90
+00:07:40,910 --> 00:07:45,690
+ال midterm exam طبعا احنا بخلص مثلا four chapters
+
+91
+00:07:45,690 --> 00:07:49,670
+و بكون عندنا ال .. ال .. الامتحان تبع ال midterm
+
+92
+00:07:49,670 --> 00:07:56,810
+exam يعني بتعده بعد مثلا تمان أسابيع من الفصل نروح
+
+93
+00:07:56,810 --> 00:08:02,460
+ندخل في ال midterm examيعني حسب الخطة سبعتنا ان
+
+94
+00:08:02,460 --> 00:08:06,020
+شاء الله المرة الجاية احنا بن .. يعني تقريبا تلاتة
+
+95
+00:08:06,020 --> 00:08:09,140
+لأ four chapters من تلاتة لأربعة chapters حسب احنا
+
+96
+00:08:09,140 --> 00:08:13,780
+جهدنا و حسب التزامكم و ال .. احنا بالاخير مش .. مش
+
+97
+00:08:13,780 --> 00:08:17,000
+معانين كتير ع كام chapter معانين كذا .. كام انتوا
+
+98
+00:08:17,000 --> 00:08:24,080
+تستوقبوا الموضوع؟ شهر تحسبيهم اكمسهم ب zero يعني
+
+99
+00:08:24,080 --> 00:08:26,980
+ستة أسابيع سبعة أسابيع okay يعني نحسب حسابنا بعد
+
+100
+00:08:26,980 --> 00:08:32,920
+سبعة أسابيع يكون عنا عايشالامتحان المسمى طبعا؟ لإن
+
+101
+00:08:32,920 --> 00:08:36,060
+بالنسبة لل attendance و ال participation الحضور و
+
+102
+00:08:36,060 --> 00:08:40,040
+اللي هو الغياب هدول و هدول مجموحهم تلاتين صح؟
+
+103
+00:08:40,040 --> 00:08:45,760
+الأغلب بيفكروا أن هذه محطوطة ب جيبتهم بس بالعكس
+
+104
+00:08:45,760 --> 00:08:49,820
+يعني يمكن المدة والفعل يكون بجيبتكم و هدول طالعين
+
+105
+00:08:49,820 --> 00:08:53,040
+ليش؟
+
+106
+00:08:53,040 --> 00:08:56,420
+ليش؟ لأنه ممكن أن تكون attendance hundred percent
+
+107
+00:08:56,420 --> 00:09:01,260
+attendanceو المشكلة أنه مافيش participation هناخد
+
+108
+00:09:01,260 --> 00:09:06,320
+خمسة من عشرة مثلا حسب كام بيصير participation
+
+109
+00:09:06,320 --> 00:09:08,820
+عندكم ال participation مش خارج أن ترفع إيدك و تحكي
+
+110
+00:09:08,820 --> 00:09:12,940
+يعني مثلا في البيت روحت رجعت الموضوع و في نقطة
+
+111
+00:09:12,940 --> 00:09:16,180
+نشوبها و الله إيجاتي و الله هاد اللي اتفنها هاد
+
+112
+00:09:16,180 --> 00:09:18,640
+الكذا هاد فتعطيني indication أن انت you are
+
+113
+00:09:18,640 --> 00:09:21,440
+involving in the process of education you are not
+
+114
+00:09:21,440 --> 00:09:25,620
+away from the class هذا اسمه participationهذا اسمه
+
+115
+00:09:25,620 --> 00:09:28,480
+.. هذا اسمه participation يعني مش شرط أنه أرفع
+
+116
+00:09:28,480 --> 00:09:33,820
+أيدي و أنا يعني أجاوز و كذا كويس هذا يعني خلاني
+
+117
+00:09:33,820 --> 00:09:38,360
+أحكي positive participation is fine but we have to
+
+118
+00:09:38,360 --> 00:09:42,020
+know the participation is to follow up to track
+
+119
+00:09:42,020 --> 00:09:45,700
+the classes and to ask questions related to the
+
+120
+00:09:45,700 --> 00:09:49,820
+classes okay so the thing is here in the
+
+121
+00:09:49,820 --> 00:09:54,700
+participationis to read what is going on in the
+
+122
+00:09:54,700 --> 00:09:59,620
+class and when you go home just read this text
+
+123
+00:09:59,620 --> 00:10:03,120
+book I don't ask you to read other things just
+
+124
+00:10:03,120 --> 00:10:07,080
+focus on this understand this for the highly
+
+125
+00:10:07,080 --> 00:10:10,680
+qualified students so there are other materials so
+
+126
+00:10:10,680 --> 00:10:15,040
+they can go back to these materials but again you
+
+127
+00:10:15,040 --> 00:10:18,920
+are not asking for
+
+128
+00:10:18,920 --> 00:10:24,950
+other materials what you canit's just committed
+
+129
+00:10:24,950 --> 00:10:29,790
+with this textbook maybe
+
+130
+00:10:29,790 --> 00:10:32,810
+you .. when you are reading you stuck one with a
+
+131
+00:10:32,810 --> 00:10:38,310
+particular abbreviation or some issues in the book
+
+132
+00:10:38,310 --> 00:10:43,730
+you go back and you make them to the office hours
+
+133
+00:10:43,730 --> 00:10:47,610
+and ask them about it this is a practice test so
+
+134
+00:10:47,610 --> 00:10:49,730
+this is very important to show me that you
+
+135
+00:10:49,730 --> 00:10:53,520
+understand anddon't tell me I don't understand
+
+136
+00:10:53,520 --> 00:10:57,360
+tell me that I don't understand this particular
+
+137
+00:10:57,360 --> 00:11:02,540
+problem okay and then the discussion between me
+
+138
+00:11:02,540 --> 00:11:06,140
+and you is growing up and then at the end of the
+
+139
+00:11:06,140 --> 00:11:10,040
+meeting we can summarize whether you understand or
+
+140
+00:11:10,040 --> 00:11:14,180
+not so this is the participation and attendance so
+
+141
+00:11:14,180 --> 00:11:17,140
+be careful for these two things it is not in your
+
+142
+00:11:17,140 --> 00:11:19,140
+pocket okay
+
+143
+00:11:20,480 --> 00:11:24,520
+for reports report and assignments I will ask you
+
+144
+00:11:24,520 --> 00:11:30,660
+to write two reports to
+
+145
+00:11:30,660 --> 00:11:33,760
+be honest with you before writing the assignments
+
+146
+00:11:33,760 --> 00:11:38,860
+I will give you like sample of assignments some
+
+147
+00:11:38,860 --> 00:11:43,980
+students with marks less than 10 and some students
+
+148
+00:11:43,980 --> 00:11:47,640
+with 20 just to compare between the two different
+
+149
+00:11:47,640 --> 00:11:51,670
+studentsto show how you write your assignments and
+
+150
+00:11:51,670 --> 00:11:54,190
+I will show you how you organize your assignments
+
+151
+00:11:54,190 --> 00:12:00,130
+you try to avoid the plagiarism حاولوا تتجنبوا ال
+
+152
+00:12:00,130 --> 00:12:04,670
+plagiarism حاولوا
+
+153
+00:12:04,670 --> 00:12:06,890
+تتجنبوا ال plagiarism ال plagiarism يعني ال fully
+
+154
+00:12:06,890 --> 00:12:13,310
+unpaid يعني ان احنا ناخد من الكتب و نخد بس و we
+
+155
+00:12:13,310 --> 00:12:17,430
+don't understand ممكن ان تقرأوا الموضوعفي ال
+
+156
+00:12:17,430 --> 00:12:22,870
+report تقلق الموضوع و حسب الفهم تبعك تكتب الموضوع
+
+157
+00:12:22,870 --> 00:12:27,310
+I don't mind to do this لكن إذا أحنا بيجي الكوبي و
+
+158
+00:12:27,310 --> 00:12:32,130
+نحط best أنا يعني سهل أعرف الكلام يعني okay في
+
+159
+00:12:32,130 --> 00:12:35,850
+عندنا برنامج اسمه termed in هذا termed in بنحطه في
+
+160
+00:12:35,850 --> 00:12:41,490
+الجهاز بيظهر لكل من وين كل إشي جيبتيه so be
+
+161
+00:12:41,490 --> 00:12:45,750
+careful with thisحلوات أخرى شوفناها في بعض ال
+
+162
+00:12:45,750 --> 00:12:48,110
+assignments أن واحدة تكتب assignment وتلاتة بيعمل
+
+163
+00:12:48,110 --> 00:12:53,070
+copy عنها Consuming that the teachers are not
+
+164
+00:12:53,070 --> 00:12:56,490
+reading the assignments So this is why I'm telling
+
+165
+00:12:56,490 --> 00:13:01,430
+you this is not in your pocket because you assume
+
+166
+00:13:01,430 --> 00:13:04,250
+that your teacher is not reading your assignments
+
+167
+00:13:05,410 --> 00:13:08,530
+So this is very interesting I'm reading every word
+
+168
+00:13:08,530 --> 00:13:11,050
+you are writing because sometimes I get benefit
+
+169
+00:13:11,050 --> 00:13:14,250
+from your writing فهو ممكن تجيب شغلات أنا
+
+170
+00:13:14,250 --> 00:13:21,670
+مابعرفهاش فانا بقرأ بستفيد okay فاتخلوش
+
+171
+00:13:21,670 --> 00:13:26,070
+القصة I made to the last minute to the last minute
+
+172
+00:13:26,070 --> 00:13:30,490
+معناه تلعب أنه مش هتاخدي feedback و عادة إحنا هيك
+
+173
+00:13:30,490 --> 00:13:35,550
+نسويهامثلا عندي الassignment لازم نسلمه و نحترمه
+
+174
+00:13:35,550 --> 00:13:42,290
+مثلا بيه خمس تاعش اربع ماني ستة اربع بنيجي الشباب
+
+175
+00:13:42,290 --> 00:13:46,070
+و البنات بيجيوا لعين تلتاش اربعة او اوش صارش ماني
+
+176
+00:13:46,070 --> 00:13:50,750
+هاتوا الassignment وانتوا okay and يلا submit و
+
+177
+00:13:50,750 --> 00:13:52,990
+بالاخير انه بناخد ثمانية من عشرة ثمانية من عشرة
+
+178
+00:13:52,990 --> 00:13:56,550
+ثمانية و بنيجي بقى الأستاذ او اش اش انا كتبته تلت
+
+179
+00:13:56,550 --> 00:14:02,050
+تلت ديام و انا ب .. بشتغل مع صحفيتي و .. و هيكهذا
+
+180
+00:14:02,050 --> 00:14:06,750
+كلام مفروض تشتغل في ال assignments بطريقة صحيحة زي
+
+181
+00:14:06,750 --> 00:14:10,550
+ما انا بقدر إمكانياتكم تحكمتهم تمام؟ انت تشتغل في
+
+182
+00:14:10,550 --> 00:14:12,630
+.. لما تبعت ال submission لل assignments تمام؟
+
+183
+00:14:12,630 --> 00:14:16,530
+تحترم ان ال assignments هذا يعني .. بتبقى عشان
+
+184
+00:14:16,530 --> 00:14:22,390
+احكي high quality فيه الاقل انه is readable تمام؟
+
+185
+00:14:22,390 --> 00:14:26,570
+ال assignments شو .. شو المطلوب فيه؟ مطلوب ال
+
+186
+00:14:26,570 --> 00:14:31,080
+assignments لأن الموضوع ان investmentإذا تفتحوا
+
+187
+00:14:31,080 --> 00:14:34,440
+فيها أنه مثلا 10 شطر تفتحوا شطر منهم سباتر تفتحوا
+
+188
+00:14:34,440 --> 00:14:38,960
+الموضوع منهم تفتحوا حوار الموضوع okay for instance
+
+189
+00:14:38,960 --> 00:14:43,260
+the first chapter is talking about the investment
+
+190
+00:14:43,260 --> 00:14:47,420
+environment okay so the investment environment
+
+191
+00:14:47,420 --> 00:14:51,440
+includes many assets for instance if we talk about
+
+192
+00:14:51,440 --> 00:14:57,040
+the financial assets and the real assets you can
+
+193
+00:14:57,040 --> 00:14:58,000
+talk about real assets
+
+194
+00:15:00,940 --> 00:15:03,760
+Okay, real assets for instance you talk about the
+
+195
+00:15:03,760 --> 00:15:06,720
+mortgages, you talk about fixed assets, investment
+
+196
+00:15:06,720 --> 00:15:10,080
+in fixed assets, buildings, machines, equipment,
+
+197
+00:15:10,440 --> 00:15:14,000
+this is real assets, so you focus your assignment
+
+198
+00:15:14,000 --> 00:15:17,180
+on the real assets, other students focus the
+
+199
+00:15:17,180 --> 00:15:20,700
+assignment on the financial assets, others they
+
+200
+00:15:20,700 --> 00:15:23,640
+compare between the financial assets and the real
+
+201
+00:15:23,640 --> 00:15:26,960
+assets I don't mind to write your assignment with
+
+202
+00:15:26,960 --> 00:15:31,480
+a group, up to three studentsيعني انا بقى انا اعيش
+
+203
+00:15:31,480 --> 00:15:34,440
+ان انت تكتبوا ال assignments اللي عيشهم من خلال
+
+204
+00:15:34,440 --> 00:15:41,040
+ثلاث .. ثلاث طالبات up to يعني مايكونش اكتر up to
+
+205
+00:15:41,040 --> 00:15:45,060
+three students طبعا up to three students الثلاث
+
+206
+00:15:45,060 --> 00:15:48,060
+طالبات هم هشتغلوا في ال .. كل واحدة هتاخد ذوق في
+
+207
+00:15:48,060 --> 00:15:50,420
+ال .. في ال assignments و تكتب فيه يعني ماينفعش ان
+
+208
+00:15:50,420 --> 00:15:54,730
+انت تحديدش و تتحمل كل ..فأنا بدي أشوف مثلا you
+
+209
+00:15:54,730 --> 00:15:57,710
+assign to the three parts this part for x this
+
+210
+00:15:57,710 --> 00:16:02,370
+part for y and the last one is for z فلما نجيجي
+
+211
+00:16:02,370 --> 00:16:06,270
+نعمل تحيل نعمل و نتأكد أن ال three students are
+
+212
+00:16:06,270 --> 00:16:09,250
+you and me هذا مثلا for instance about the
+
+213
+00:16:09,250 --> 00:16:13,890
+investment environments if you are interested to
+
+214
+00:16:13,890 --> 00:16:19,250
+just select one of the chapters and write down
+
+215
+00:16:19,250 --> 00:16:23,450
+your assignments regarding the preferencesat the
+
+216
+00:16:23,450 --> 00:16:26,030
+end of each chapter you have a lot of references
+
+217
+00:16:26,030 --> 00:16:31,370
+if you have problems in getting the references
+
+218
+00:16:31,370 --> 00:16:33,050
+just contact me
+
+219
+00:16:38,530 --> 00:16:42,150
+the first five minutes in the .. in each meeting
+
+220
+00:16:42,150 --> 00:16:45,310
+just we discussed if the students has a habit
+
+221
+00:16:45,310 --> 00:16:47,830
+problems in the .. in the assignments or in the
+
+222
+00:16:47,830 --> 00:16:50,510
+previous meetings we summarize the previous
+
+223
+00:16:50,510 --> 00:16:53,990
+meeting and integrate you in the .. in the current
+
+224
+00:16:53,990 --> 00:16:59,270
+meetings okay so don't hesitate to .. to talk
+
+225
+00:16:59,270 --> 00:17:02,990
+about your assignment to talk about some issues
+
+226
+00:17:02,990 --> 00:17:06,910
+related to the previous meetings okay just to ..
+
+227
+00:17:06,910 --> 00:17:08,050
+to ensure that you understand
+
+228
+00:17:31,700 --> 00:17:36,280
+ماتنزعجوش كتير هأجيب sample of assignments
+
+229
+00:17:36,280 --> 00:17:42,190
+هأورجيكم إياهمو اجيبكم انه طبعا مش هنجريكم الأسماء
+
+230
+00:17:42,190 --> 00:17:48,590
+طبعا لانه هذا ethics فهنشوفكم طلاب رثبوا
+
+231
+00:17:48,590 --> 00:17:51,650
+بالassignment تبعتهم و طلاب نجحوا بالassignment
+
+232
+00:17:51,650 --> 00:17:56,190
+تبعتهم هتشوفوا ال .. ال big gap بين هدول اللي
+
+233
+00:17:56,190 --> 00:17:59,330
+نجحوا بين هدول اللي رثبوا بالassignment and then
+
+234
+00:17:59,330 --> 00:18:01,610
+you decide whether you are in this group or in
+
+235
+00:18:01,610 --> 00:18:06,410
+this groupأه فلازم أنتوا تقرروا أنتوا بتنجحوا بال
+
+236
+00:18:06,410 --> 00:18:10,070
+assignment ولا لأ بس أنا بتصور أنه يعني ليش تضيعوا
+
+237
+00:18:10,070 --> 00:18:12,950
+عليكم فرصة التلاتين درجة هدول هيك البلاش جايين
+
+238
+00:18:12,950 --> 00:18:19,850
+سهلين و خاصة أنه هذا مش exam أنه يعني .. يعني you
+
+239
+00:18:19,850 --> 00:18:23,550
+have now about six weeks or let's say sixteen
+
+240
+00:18:23,550 --> 00:18:28,490
+weeks to write down two simple assignments for
+
+241
+00:18:28,490 --> 00:18:32,770
+each assignment three thousand wordslet's say 250
+
+242
+00:18:32,770 --> 00:18:38,150
+words for each assignment لكل واحد ناخد 2500 كلمة
+
+243
+00:18:38,150 --> 00:18:44,650
+2500 كلمة يعني دول هم 9 صفحات 9 أشهر صفحات كل صفحة
+
+244
+00:18:44,650 --> 00:18:50,730
+250 كلمة طبعا هارجيكوا كيف how we organize
+
+245
+00:18:50,730 --> 00:18:54,950
+assignments هتجدوا بس أنتوا بتكتبوا ست صفحات جد
+
+246
+00:18:54,950 --> 00:18:57,210
+لأن ال introduction هتاخد مننا صفحة و ال
+
+247
+00:18:57,210 --> 00:18:59,770
+conclusion هتاخد مننا صفحة و ال references هتاخد
+
+248
+00:18:59,770 --> 00:19:04,160
+مننا صفحة وهي خلصنا ال assignmentلأ لأ احنا هنتفق
+
+249
+00:19:04,160 --> 00:19:10,240
+على .. هنتفق على ال .. هنتفق على شكل الاصامت بحيث
+
+250
+00:19:10,240 --> 00:19:15,800
+انه احنا we are seeking equality احنا we are
+
+251
+00:19:15,800 --> 00:19:18,440
+seeking equality يعني ال equality معناه جدا انه
+
+252
+00:19:18,440 --> 00:19:22,920
+احنا كلنا مع بعض هيك الاصامت تبعتنا بدأت كون ال
+
+253
+00:19:22,920 --> 00:19:28,100
+style متشابه يعني في عنا table of contents شكل
+
+254
+00:19:28,100 --> 00:19:32,360
+الخط يكون معين ال spaceالـ field lines مثلا ال
+
+255
+00:19:32,360 --> 00:19:34,780
+double space يكون ال margin يكون مرسّة ال
+
+256
+00:19:34,780 --> 00:19:38,120
+differences ال heating و ال sub heating كل هذا
+
+257
+00:19:38,120 --> 00:19:42,340
+بيكون ايش احنا نرسّيه لحيث لما احنا نيجي نعمل خدمة
+
+258
+00:19:42,340 --> 00:19:47,980
+لل assignments اللي فيها ده فيه quality لإن بكرا
+
+259
+00:19:47,980 --> 00:19:54,900
+انتوا بتروحوا على ال business تبعكم يعني بأظن انه
+
+260
+00:19:54,900 --> 00:19:59,830
+ضروري انه how to write a reportإنه احنا ال report
+
+261
+00:19:59,830 --> 00:20:04,470
+ضروري يكون مرسّل، مصح حيث أنه يعطي indication ل
+
+262
+00:20:04,470 --> 00:20:08,270
+your personality and your background as well فهذا
+
+263
+00:20:08,270 --> 00:20:11,230
+is important for you to know how to write a proper
+
+264
+00:20:11,230 --> 00:20:16,550
+report not just .. okay .. just أي حاجة بأي موضوع
+
+265
+00:20:16,550 --> 00:20:22,370
+يجيب أي نتيجة، هذا كلام اجتماعي طبعا؟ إيه عندكم
+
+266
+00:20:22,370 --> 00:20:27,930
+حاجة؟ okay زناد الورق؟ ماشي معانا بالخطب؟
+
+267
+00:20:30,870 --> 00:20:35,890
+طيب طبعا هذا بالنسبة للرباط و ال assignments بال
+
+268
+00:20:35,890 --> 00:20:42,010
+final exam مش .. يعني مش زي ال mid طبعا احنا هنجمع
+
+269
+00:20:42,010 --> 00:20:45,810
+ال .. زي ال bar مع ال final يصير تكتة هنجمع ال mid
+
+270
+00:20:45,810 --> 00:20:51,310
+مع ال .. مع ال attendance يصير 40 يصير هنا 40لأ 60
+
+271
+00:20:51,310 --> 00:20:54,690
+يعني بيكون عندكم على درجتهم بال .. بال med لأن ال
+
+272
+00:20:54,690 --> 00:20:58,310
+med هو عبارة عن activities أنت بتشتغلوا عليها ف 40
+
+273
+00:20:58,310 --> 00:21:04,510
+to 60 المجموع تبقى عمونا هنفسه okay هذا بالنسبة ل
+
+274
+00:21:04,510 --> 00:21:10,450
+ال .. ال .. how we manage our meetings في حد عنده
+
+275
+00:21:10,450 --> 00:21:20,220
+سؤال؟ اه؟ كم سنة؟ كده عامة ليه؟ كده عامةبعرفش هل
+
+276
+00:21:20,220 --> 00:21:24,980
+هي prerequisite يعني هل مطلب صالح سؤال هل هي مطلب
+
+277
+00:21:24,980 --> 00:21:28,880
+صالح من المادة؟ مش مطلب صالح، بس طيب، بيبقى كتير،
+
+278
+00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:31,480
+بس طبعا في extra effort مش أكتر يعني مثلا أعطيكي
+
+279
+00:21:31,480 --> 00:21:37,320
+مثال، لما أجي انا أحكي مثلا ال risk and return هذه
+
+280
+00:21:37,320 --> 00:21:40,680
+ال risk and return مخلينها بالإدارة المالية okay؟
+
+281
+00:21:40,680 --> 00:21:44,240
+بتوع الإدارة المالية، لما نيجي نحكي على ال spots،
+
+282
+00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:47,000
+لما نيجي نحكي على ال bonds، هذه بتوع الإدارة
+
+283
+00:21:47,000 --> 00:21:50,340
+المالية أصلا مخلينهافانه احنا هنضطر اذا انت مش
+
+284
+00:21:50,340 --> 00:21:54,720
+ماخده او اذا كان ال majority مش ماخدين الإدارة
+
+285
+00:21:54,720 --> 00:21:57,460
+المالية هضطر انه انا اش ارجع للإدارة المالية و
+
+286
+00:21:57,460 --> 00:22:02,680
+اشرحكم الإدارة المالية and we waste our time فإيش
+
+287
+00:22:02,680 --> 00:22:06,140
+أنا بسوي معاكي؟ إيش ممكن تسوي معاكي حتى مع
+
+288
+00:22:06,140 --> 00:22:10,160
+الطالبات اللي مش ماخدين الإدارة المالية؟ يعني إذا
+
+289
+00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:14,740
+مر علينا موضوع مش واضح ممكن يعني أهديكي إلى كتاب
+
+290
+00:22:15,600 --> 00:22:19,060
+نحكيلك إن هذا الكتاب وضح بعض المفاهيم، بعطيك شوية
+
+291
+00:22:19,060 --> 00:22:24,800
+شرح عن الموضوع، لكن بالاخير بدك ترجع للكتاب و تقرا
+
+292
+00:22:24,800 --> 00:22:29,180
+إيه الإدارة المالية، لأنه احنا هنا in distance، مش
+
+293
+00:22:29,180 --> 00:22:32,780
+هيكون الأمر صعب كتير، هيكون ال .. أكم واحدة مش
+
+294
+00:22:32,780 --> 00:22:39,130
+ماخدة إدارة مالية، خمسةيعني خمسة من خمسة واربعين
+
+295
+00:22:39,130 --> 00:22:43,950
+ان شاء الله مافيكوا مشكلة كمان إذا حسيت كمان شوي
+
+296
+00:22:43,950 --> 00:22:47,530
+الأمور صعبة ممكن أنتوا الخمسة تيجوا هيك بأوقات
+
+297
+00:22:47,530 --> 00:22:52,490
+الفراغ الأكاديمي أو أوقات ال .. هذا تفكريوا أيش
+
+298
+00:22:52,490 --> 00:22:57,470
+موضوع كنتوا تحكوا فيه و نشرحلكم طبعا؟ هذا من خلال
+
+299
+00:22:57,470 --> 00:23:05,150
+ال .. ال final forty هيك يكون احنا خلصنا الموضوع
+
+300
+00:23:05,150 --> 00:23:05,530
+تبعنا
+
+301
+00:23:09,360 --> 00:23:13,520
+خلّينا نقرر كلام هذا، مادة النهائي بتكون مادة
+
+302
+00:23:13,520 --> 00:23:18,820
+غنية، المشكلة وين؟ المشكلة بال .. بال investment و
+
+303
+00:23:18,820 --> 00:23:22,900
+ال financial management هي زي الرياضيات، يعني
+
+304
+00:23:22,900 --> 00:23:26,360
+موضوع بال .. اخر chapter مثلا احنا بنحكي bond
+
+305
+00:23:26,360 --> 00:23:30,800
+valuation، تقييم السنة ده، ال bond valuation ممكن
+
+306
+00:23:30,800 --> 00:23:33,320
+يكون جزء منها وضبط في chapter two و هي موجودة في
+
+307
+00:23:33,320 --> 00:23:37,560
+chapter sevenفإذا انت مش فاهم ال chapter 2 و مش
+
+308
+00:23:37,560 --> 00:23:43,780
+هتجاوب ال chapter 7 فعشان كده انا يعني مافيش عندي
+
+309
+00:23:43,780 --> 00:23:47,380
+جواب نهائي ان احكيلك اه ولا لأ ليش لإنه issue
+
+310
+00:23:47,380 --> 00:23:52,020
+مرتبط كله متداخل في بعضه لكن theoretically yes
+
+311
+00:23:52,020 --> 00:23:56,800
+نظريا yesبس من ناحية العالمية بتتعامل مع الأسئلة و
+
+312
+00:23:56,800 --> 00:23:59,620
+الإجابات هتجد انه انت you cannot handle the
+
+313
+00:23:59,620 --> 00:24:02,080
+question if you don't have experience on the
+
+314
+00:24:02,080 --> 00:24:15,700
+previous chapters فنظريا
+
+315
+00:24:15,700 --> 00:24:23,100
+كلام صحيح لكن عمليا كلام مش صحيح لا ماحكتشماحكنقش
+
+316
+00:24:23,100 --> 00:24:26,140
+لا لسه يعني ما هو انتوا تيجي تحكي على .. خلينينا
+
+317
+00:24:26,140 --> 00:24:31,920
+نجرب شوفوا خلينينا احنا نتعامل بال .. يعني اه
+
+318
+00:24:31,920 --> 00:24:35,780
+نتعامل نشوف كيف تتعاملوا انتوا مع ال .. مع الأسئلة
+
+319
+00:24:35,780 --> 00:24:39,080
+كيف تتعاملوا مع الشرح و حكينا يا ما تخجلوش ارفعوا
+
+320
+00:24:39,080 --> 00:24:43,960
+أيداكم و اسألوا يعني اذا مافهمتوش بالعربي انا
+
+321
+00:24:43,960 --> 00:24:45,920
+فاهمكم بالإنجليزي اذا مافهمتوش بالإنجليزي انا
+
+322
+00:24:45,920 --> 00:24:49,940
+فاهمكم بالعربي اه يعني على الجانب ايه اللي احنا
+
+323
+00:24:49,940 --> 00:24:50,380
+شغلين
+
+324
+00:24:54,420 --> 00:24:59,700
+أحنا متفاهمين باللغة
+
+325
+00:24:59,700 --> 00:25:09,360
+هادى ولا باللغة هادى؟ في حد عنده سؤال؟
+
+326
+00:25:10,850 --> 00:25:14,550
+و الله انا مش كتير في الموضوع الصح الموضوع و ال ..
+
+327
+00:25:14,550 --> 00:25:17,730
+و ال market choice مش كتير احنا .. و احنا مش مشاهد
+
+328
+00:25:17,730 --> 00:25:21,750
+احنا .. يعني .. يعني اذا اضطرينا .. اذا اضطرينا ..
+
+329
+00:25:21,750 --> 00:25:26,250
+المهم احنا الامتحان تركيبته اتقيس مهارات الطالب،
+
+330
+00:25:26,250 --> 00:25:29,670
+هذا ال .. هذا المهم، المهارات المختلفة بتاعة
+
+331
+00:25:29,670 --> 00:25:38,000
+الطالبأكيد .. أكيد هن .. هنعطيكم أسئلة و هي
+
+332
+00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:42,060
+الأسئلة اللي .. لكن المشكلة وين انه احنا يعني مثلا
+
+333
+00:25:42,060 --> 00:25:45,260
+ال final بتاع الفصل السادس تبع الإدارة المالية
+
+334
+00:25:45,260 --> 00:25:50,340
+مثلا كان hundred percent في الكتاب و للأسف الشديد
+
+335
+00:25:50,340 --> 00:25:55,440
+يعني مش كتير اتعاملوا معاه بشكل صحيح رغم أن هم
+
+336
+00:25:55,440 --> 00:26:01,060
+الكتاب ف .. هذا أنتوا بتقرروا فيه و مع بعض مقرروا
+
+337
+00:26:01,060 --> 00:26:05,680
+نشوف هل ..فاكروش في الامتحان يعني في اللحظة هذه
+
+338
+00:26:05,680 --> 00:26:10,180
+خليني أفكر في ال .. اه؟ خليني أشوف ال .. ال ..
+
+339
+00:26:10,180 --> 00:26:12,740
+العمادة إيش قرروا في الموضوع، الرئيس القسم هو قرر
+
+340
+00:26:12,740 --> 00:26:18,360
+خلاص يعني تمت .. التوافق على ال .. ال discussion
+
+341
+00:26:18,360 --> 00:26:24,600
+بس هلا ضايل اللحظة متى to run the discussionال ..
+
+342
+00:26:24,600 --> 00:26:28,040
+ال .. العشر درجات بتاعة ال .. حسب الفصل فات، العشر
+
+343
+00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:31,000
+درجات بتاعة ال participation و ال attendance كانت
+
+344
+00:26:31,000 --> 00:26:36,000
+من خلال ال discussion، كان يكون عندك ال discussion
+
+345
+00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:39,640
+لأنه هي أكتر إشي أنت face to face with the tutor
+
+346
+00:26:39,640 --> 00:26:45,600
+بالنسبة للبنات اللي إجوا متأخرين، حد عنده سؤال؟
+
+347
+00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:50,480
+أه؟ أنا كتير يعني مبسوط أن ال .. ال mobiles و
+
+348
+00:26:50,480 --> 00:26:53,480
+الهادي مش شايفينها، فعلا يعني it's good news
+
+349
+00:26:55,540 --> 00:27:02,660
+محنانيين برضه الناس ليه؟ ال .. الشاطر الأول اللي
+
+350
+00:27:02,660 --> 00:27:05,020
+هو هنحكي بال .. the investment .. investment
+
+351
+00:27:05,020 --> 00:27:09,740
+environments اللي هو البيئة الاستثمارية طبعا في حد
+
+352
+00:27:09,740 --> 00:27:14,600
+يعني صادقا عنده معرفة what it means investment
+
+353
+00:27:14,600 --> 00:27:22,840
+environments investment environments صوت
+
+354
+00:27:22,840 --> 00:27:27,780
+analysis okayيعني strength, weaknesses,
+
+355
+00:27:28,040 --> 00:27:31,580
+opportunities and threats this is in this
+
+356
+00:27:31,580 --> 00:27:36,960
+environment okay we may accept this swat is using
+
+357
+00:27:36,960 --> 00:27:41,730
+to evaluateOkay, so we evaluate things, we use
+
+358
+00:27:41,730 --> 00:27:45,550
+thought analysis to see whether you are investing
+
+359
+00:27:45,550 --> 00:27:50,350
+in the projects or not is a part of the investment
+
+360
+00:27:50,350 --> 00:27:54,290
+environment هي جزء من investment environment but
+
+361
+00:27:54,290 --> 00:27:58,010
+it is not investment environment يعني كلامك صحيح
+
+362
+00:27:58,010 --> 00:28:06,490
+بس مش كتير okay يعني
+
+363
+00:28:06,490 --> 00:28:09,720
+خلينا نفكر investment environmentلو جينا احنا
+
+364
+00:28:09,720 --> 00:28:15,540
+حكينا حقا .. لو جينا حكينا غزا ايش ال environment
+
+365
+00:28:15,540 --> 00:28:18,580
+اللي عايزنا .. لو احنا قررنا what is the
+
+366
+00:28:18,580 --> 00:28:23,580
+environment in Gaza؟ شو هي؟ خلينا نسمع اراء اخرى
+
+367
+00:28:23,580 --> 00:28:26,460
+.. اخرى .. شوف ال fanarts الورا .. ايش رأيكم؟
+
+368
+00:28:30,700 --> 00:28:33,220
+البيئة الاستثمارية ايش رأيك؟ يعني لو ايجي نحكينا
+
+369
+00:28:33,220 --> 00:28:37,640
+ايه جهة لقاء صح تحكولك؟ what is your opinion on
+
+370
+00:28:37,640 --> 00:28:41,240
+the investment environments in Gaza؟يعني شو رأيك
+
+371
+00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:43,520
+من البيئة الاستثمارية في غزة؟ ماهو بيئة
+
+372
+00:28:43,520 --> 00:28:45,780
+الاستثمارية؟ ماهو بيئة الاستثمارية؟ ماهو بيئة
+
+373
+00:28:45,780 --> 00:28:46,120
+الاستثمارية؟ ماهو بيئة الاستثمارية؟ ماهو بيئة
+
+374
+00:28:46,120 --> 00:28:50,280
+الاستثمارية؟ ماهو بيئة الاستثمارية؟ ماهو بيئة
+
+375
+00:28:50,280 --> 00:28:53,740
+الاستثمارية؟ ماهو بيئة الاستثمارية؟ ماهو بيئة
+
+376
+00:28:53,740 --> 00:28:58,590
+الاستثمارية؟ ماهو بيئة الاستثمارية؟ ماهبال
+
+377
+00:28:58,590 --> 00:29:03,090
+knowledge و بال experience سؤال بسيط شو رأيكم
+
+378
+00:29:03,090 --> 00:29:06,690
+بالاستثمارات او بال .. ال VL استثمارية بنفسك خليني
+
+379
+00:29:06,690 --> 00:29:09,750
+اشوف ايه اكتر اشي استثمار بفرق انه صارت اللي في
+
+380
+00:29:09,750 --> 00:29:16,990
+مباني السكنية ايه؟ ايه استثماري؟ real estate ايه
+
+381
+00:29:16,990 --> 00:29:21,430
+اللي هي حاجتيه اسمه real estate؟ yes okay صح كلامي
+
+382
+00:29:21,430 --> 00:29:27,490
+مظبوط اذا جزء من ال VL استثمارية هو real estate
+
+383
+00:29:29,020 --> 00:29:34,080
+بظبط طيب ال infrastructure بتحكي، هل هو
+
+384
+00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:40,600
+investment؟ بقى بنقرر، هل هو investment؟ اه بقى
+
+385
+00:29:40,600 --> 00:29:42,780
+بنقرر what is investment and what is non
+
+386
+00:29:42,780 --> 00:29:48,180
+-investment اه it's
+
+387
+00:29:48,180 --> 00:29:55,140
+too hard or risk because we are part of country in
+
+388
+00:29:55,140 --> 00:29:56,600
+occupation، it's not easy
+
+389
+00:29:59,210 --> 00:30:03,210
+Okay so when you talk about investment environment
+
+390
+00:30:03,210 --> 00:30:08,810
+you talk about risk okay that's that's fine ايش
+
+391
+00:30:08,810 --> 00:30:15,670
+كمان خلينا نسمع البنات اللي قدام investment
+
+392
+00:30:15,670 --> 00:30:20,390
+environment هاي الكلام صحيح يعني لما احنا when we
+
+393
+00:30:20,390 --> 00:30:25,030
+talk about investment environments we talk about
+
+394
+00:30:26,350 --> 00:30:29,630
+the securities or the .. we talk about different
+
+395
+00:30:29,630 --> 00:30:33,830
+types of investments so real estate is one of the
+
+396
+00:30:33,830 --> 00:30:40,890
+investment types real estate واحدة منهم بعد هيك
+
+397
+00:30:40,890 --> 00:30:45,550
+إيش هم ال .. ال risk this is the characteristics
+
+398
+00:30:45,550 --> 00:30:49,530
+of the investments هاي مواصفات أو نحكي عن قصائص
+
+399
+00:30:49,530 --> 00:30:54,220
+الاستثمار risk وإيش كمان عكس ال riskrisk عكس ال
+
+400
+00:30:54,220 --> 00:30:58,000
+risk profits بس بال investment ما بنحكي profits
+
+401
+00:30:58,000 --> 00:31:05,340
+بنحكي return okay بنحكي return okay so we have
+
+402
+00:31:05,340 --> 00:31:09,840
+risk and we have return اذا في عندنا ال risk ايش
+
+403
+00:31:09,840 --> 00:31:13,160
+معناها مخاطر و return عاقد طبعا ليش احنا
+
+404
+00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:16,960
+ماحكيناهاش profits يعني حكت الأخت عن ال profits
+
+405
+00:31:16,960 --> 00:31:18,920
+ليش احنا ماحكيناه عنها
+
+406
+00:31:50,600 --> 00:31:58,710
+The investors focusing on the returnبي .. بيركزوا
+
+407
+00:31:58,710 --> 00:32:00,810
+على ال return ما بيركزوا على ال profits خلينا نشوف
+
+408
+00:32:00,810 --> 00:32:04,970
+شي عملي ال .. ايش الفرق بين ال return و ال profits
+
+409
+00:32:04,970 --> 00:32:09,470
+شي بسيط لو احنا عندنا project A و project B
+
+410
+00:32:09,470 --> 00:32:16,910
+project A و project B project A ربح الف دولار و
+
+411
+00:32:16,910 --> 00:32:21,410
+project B ربح الف دولار طب ايه أحسن؟ A و لا B؟ انا
+
+412
+00:32:21,410 --> 00:32:25,070
+profits ايه
+
+413
+00:32:25,070 --> 00:32:29,500
+أحسن؟ A و لا B؟we are in difference, in difference
+
+414
+00:32:29,500 --> 00:32:34,360
+يعني مش هناخد قرار لإن both of them have equally
+
+415
+00:32:34,360 --> 00:32:39,800
+profits نفس الربح طيب مثلها الآخر لو هما نفس a و b
+
+416
+00:32:39,800 --> 00:32:46,380
+واحد عشر تلاف خليني نطلع فو عشان ال .. عساس احنا
+
+417
+00:32:46,380 --> 00:32:51,060
+نصحح المفهوم profits و return لو a و b هذا ربح ألف
+
+418
+00:32:51,060 --> 00:32:56,120
+و هذا ربح عشر تلافstill we are talking about
+
+419
+00:32:56,120 --> 00:32:58,820
+profit which you prefer to invest in A or in B
+
+420
+00:32:58,820 --> 00:33:05,660
+hundred percent in B هنعمل استثمار في B طب نشوف
+
+421
+00:33:05,660 --> 00:33:08,800
+how we change our minds when we consider the
+
+422
+00:33:08,800 --> 00:33:14,340
+return كيف احنا هنغير موضوعنا both of them are
+
+423
+00:33:14,340 --> 00:33:17,140
+profits هذي الف دولار و هذي عشر تلاف دولار احنا
+
+424
+00:33:17,140 --> 00:33:21,900
+ربحنا في A ألف و ربحنا في B عشر تلاف بس احنا
+
+425
+00:33:21,900 --> 00:33:26,840
+هخلينا نقرر انه whywe are not focusing on the
+
+426
+00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:32,440
+profit and we focus on the return احنا مابنركزش
+
+427
+00:33:32,440 --> 00:33:36,480
+على الربح because the profit is misleading عارفينش
+
+428
+00:33:36,480 --> 00:33:42,460
+عامل misleading misleading يعني مضلل الربح مضلل
+
+429
+00:33:42,460 --> 00:33:47,420
+misleading but the return is accurate and give you
+
+430
+00:33:47,420 --> 00:33:51,700
+indication whether to invest or notخلّيني أشوف، لو
+
+431
+00:33:51,700 --> 00:33:54,320
+أجينا .. أنا أعطيكوا معلومات، highly profit، صب ..
+
+432
+00:33:54,320 --> 00:33:57,960
+احنا لازم .. زي ما احنا بنربح، لازم نشوف كام احنا
+
+433
+00:33:57,960 --> 00:34:02,600
+استثمرنا، عشان نقرر ان احنا العقل .. العقل استثمر،
+
+434
+00:34:02,600 --> 00:34:09,040
+لو أجينا احنا هان ال investments،
+
+435
+00:34:09,040 --> 00:34:15,600
+احنا هان دفعنا ميد .. نيجي نحكي مثلا، دفعنا five
+
+436
+00:34:15,600 --> 00:34:18,060
+thousand dollar، عملنا investments
+
+437
+00:34:20,980 --> 00:34:25,860
+و هان استثمرنا two million او نحكي one million
+
+438
+00:34:25,860 --> 00:34:33,840
+okay we invest one million we get ten thousand
+
+439
+00:34:33,840 --> 00:34:38,480
+dollar we invest five thousand dollar we get one
+
+440
+00:34:38,480 --> 00:34:43,000
+thousand هبقى نحسي بشغل اسمها ال return ال return
+
+441
+00:34:43,000 --> 00:34:45,700
+بيخصوه في عدة وسائل خلينا بس مبدئيا return on
+
+442
+00:34:45,700 --> 00:34:50,370
+investmentنخسر ال profit على ال investment دي
+
+443
+00:34:50,370 --> 00:34:57,830
+الألف تقسيم خمس تلاف okay هذا بنخسر العشر تلاف على
+
+444
+00:34:57,830 --> 00:35:02,130
+المليون يعني إيش معناه الكلام هذا الرجال معاه
+
+445
+00:35:02,130 --> 00:35:07,050
+مليون دولار ربح عشر تلاف دولار يعني حط المليون
+
+446
+00:35:07,050 --> 00:35:10,510
+دولار تبعته في اشتراك عام المبنى مثلا مليون دولار
+
+447
+00:35:10,510 --> 00:35:14,930
+عام المبنى المبنى ربح فيه عشر تلاف دولار واحد تاني
+
+448
+00:35:14,930 --> 00:35:18,170
+معاه خمس تلاف دولار شاطرعمل الف دولار من ورا
+
+449
+00:35:18,170 --> 00:35:22,710
+هالشغلة فبنشوف شو العائد على هذا وعائد على هذا هذا
+
+450
+00:35:22,710 --> 00:35:25,490
+العائد تبقى كم؟ اشرين في المية صح؟ الف على خمس
+
+451
+00:35:25,490 --> 00:35:33,190
+تلاف كم؟ اشرين في المية هذا العشر تلاف على مليون
+
+452
+00:35:33,190 --> 00:35:37,450
+كم؟ واحد بال .. بالمية واحد في المية، مظبوط؟
+
+453
+00:35:37,450 --> 00:35:41,790
+اعملوها، شوفوها واحد في المية؟ واحد في المية طب
+
+454
+00:35:41,790 --> 00:35:46,300
+إذا هذا معناه كلام هذا ال twenty percentيعني حط
+
+455
+00:35:46,300 --> 00:35:50,400
+دولار واحد في المشروع جابله عشرين cents هذا حط
+
+456
+00:35:50,400 --> 00:35:56,800
+دولار واحد في المشروع حطاه واحد من عشرة cents اذا
+
+457
+00:35:56,800 --> 00:36:01,920
+ايه احسن مثال بسيط شوف ال chefs تبع الأولاد الصغار
+
+458
+00:36:01,920 --> 00:36:07,060
+وكيس الطحين مثال بسيط التاجر مثلا بكيس الطحين ممكن
+
+459
+00:36:07,060 --> 00:36:14,470
+يربح شاكل كام دفع؟ دفع سبعين شاكلعشان يجيب شكل من
+
+460
+00:36:14,470 --> 00:36:18,910
+كيس طحين تشوفوا الاستثمار كيف لكن في chips تبع
+
+461
+00:36:18,910 --> 00:36:24,470
+الأطفال ممكن هو دفع تلاتين أجورا عامل عشرين أجورا
+
+462
+00:36:25,650 --> 00:36:29,290
+بيبيعوا للولاد الصغير بخمسين .. خمسين نص .. نص
+
+463
+00:36:29,290 --> 00:36:34,770
+شاكل طب عمليا مين الربح؟ كيس الطحين أكتر ولا ال ..
+
+464
+00:36:34,770 --> 00:36:39,530
+ال chips .. الاطفال دفعنا .. احنا بس تلاتين ..
+
+465
+00:36:39,530 --> 00:36:43,370
+تلاتين أجورة عملنا عشرين أجورة منهم فجداش العائد
+
+466
+00:36:43,370 --> 00:36:45,730
+علينا؟ العائد علينا انه احنا العشرين هدول اللي
+
+467
+00:36:45,730 --> 00:36:48,890
+هيبيعوا بخمسين طبعا العشرين على تلاتين شوفوا كام
+
+468
+00:36:48,890 --> 00:36:52,650
+ربحنا من ورا الشغلة وبكيس الطحين احنا شاكل دفعنا
+
+469
+00:36:52,650 --> 00:36:56,890
+.. دفعنا سبعين شاكل وحصلنا ع شاكل واحدشوفتوا كيف
+
+470
+00:36:56,890 --> 00:37:01,210
+ال .. فهنربحنا .. هنربحنا شاكل؟ في كيسة طحين
+
+471
+00:37:01,210 --> 00:37:04,590
+نربحنا شاكل صراحة؟ و بال chips تبع الأطفال كام
+
+472
+00:37:04,590 --> 00:37:11,510
+نربحنا عشرين أجورا؟ طب انا و .. أحسن أربح شاكل في
+
+473
+00:37:11,510 --> 00:37:15,850
+كيسة طحين و لا أربح عشرين cent و لا عشرين أجورا في
+
+474
+00:37:15,850 --> 00:37:23,680
+chips الأطفال عشرين أجورا ليه؟ عشان البريطانلو انا
+
+475
+00:37:23,680 --> 00:37:26,920
+.. عشان العائد العائد انا العشرين انا دفعت كام
+
+476
+00:37:26,920 --> 00:37:29,440
+عشان حصلت على ال .. على العشرين؟ دفعت انا تلاتين
+
+477
+00:37:29,440 --> 00:37:33,560
+لحدي chips شوفوا قداش التلتين يعني انا ربحت خمسة و
+
+478
+00:37:33,560 --> 00:37:38,140
+سبعين تلمينا طب انا دفعت كام؟ انا سبعين بقت اكيس
+
+479
+00:37:38,140 --> 00:37:40,940
+الطحين بواحد و سبعين وبالتالي انا واحد على سبعين
+
+480
+00:37:40,940 --> 00:37:46,220
+شوفوا قداش تفتوا كام؟ فالبقوش يعني مثلا اللي بيبيع
+
+481
+00:37:46,220 --> 00:37:50,200
+اكيس الطحين مش فاهم ازاي ممكن احنا نبيع ال .. علكة
+
+482
+00:37:50,200 --> 00:37:54,720
+الأطفال هذهأو الألعاب الأفضل تجيب إيرادات أعلى من
+
+483
+00:37:54,720 --> 00:37:57,800
+الشغلات اللي احنا بفكر فيها this is why انه احنا
+
+484
+00:37:57,800 --> 00:38:02,800
+مش كتير بنتركز على ال profit بنتركز على وضح اشر
+
+485
+00:38:02,800 --> 00:38:07,040
+فرق ليش احنا ماحكينا عشان profit حكينا return و
+
+486
+00:38:07,040 --> 00:38:11,680
+هذا بحياتكوا العملية تتطقو طب احنا نقف عند هذا
+
+487
+00:38:11,680 --> 00:38:15,620
+الحد ان شاء الله و اللقاء الجاي بنبدأ نحكي
+
+488
+00:38:15,620 --> 00:38:19,760
+بالتفاصيل و حابين احنا مشاركة منكم
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/8zptgmDPa7g_raw.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/8zptgmDPa7g_raw.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..cd7b3f6881046365219d7f23ce2d4cbe16b41f4c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/8zptgmDPa7g_raw.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1364 @@
+1
+00:00:20,650 --> 00:00:23,650
+بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم المرة اللي فاتت كنا نحكي عن
+
+2
+00:00:23,650 --> 00:00:27,950
+ال .. ال margin بس لما كنا نحكي بال margin كنا
+
+3
+00:00:27,950 --> 00:00:33,050
+نبدأ بال buy نبدأ عملية شراء بس اليوم نحكي إذا كان
+
+4
+00:00:33,050 --> 00:00:40,450
+نبدأ margin بعملية بيع اه موبايل مين نبدأ عملية
+
+5
+00:00:40,450 --> 00:00:44,870
+بيع كيف يبتم عملية البيع احنا شرحنا لكم المرة اللي
+
+6
+00:00:44,870 --> 00:00:50,740
+فاتت ال short sale مظبوط ال short saleاحنا بنبدأ
+
+7
+00:00:50,740 --> 00:00:53,800
+المرة
+
+8
+00:00:53,800 --> 00:00:58,240
+ثالثة حكينا عن short sale short sale لأ حكينا
+
+9
+00:00:58,240 --> 00:01:03,760
+حكينا short sale ان احنا بنبدأ ب sale فاكرين لما
+
+10
+00:01:03,760 --> 00:01:10,580
+حكينا ان احنا نسلف mobile و بنبيعه حكينا عنه اللي
+
+11
+00:01:10,580 --> 00:01:14,440
+هو هذا اسمه short sale ال short sale ببدأ اذا احنا
+
+12
+00:01:14,440 --> 00:01:22,830
+كنا بنبدأ في عملية بيعنبدأ بيع كيف نبدأ بيع؟ نبدأ
+
+13
+00:01:22,830 --> 00:01:26,550
+بيع الهاتف تمام بعد ما ن .. we borrow the .. the
+
+14
+00:01:26,550 --> 00:01:30,450
+mobile or we borrow the stock نظبط احنا we
+
+15
+00:01:30,450 --> 00:01:36,690
+starting by borrowing the stock borrow stock or
+
+16
+00:01:36,690 --> 00:01:40,090
+mobile زي ما احنا اعطيناكم المرة الفاتة نبدأ بيع
+
+17
+00:01:40,090 --> 00:01:45,670
+الهاتف okayبعد ما ندهن موبايل يكون ال expectations
+
+18
+00:01:45,670 --> 00:01:50,530
+تبعتنا ال prices will go down الأسعار هتنخفض طبعا
+
+19
+00:01:50,530 --> 00:02:01,230
+لو احنا أخدنا مثلا شوفنا كيف بيصير لو كان احنا
+
+20
+00:02:01,230 --> 00:02:07,170
+عندنا هذا ال chart وهي
+
+21
+00:02:07,170 --> 00:02:12,730
+الأسعار هتتذبذب الأسعار ال pricesهذه ال prices
+
+22
+00:02:12,730 --> 00:02:16,490
+okay زي ما انتوا شايفين شوفوا السعر وين وصل اعلى
+
+23
+00:02:16,490 --> 00:02:24,190
+حد في المرحلة هذه مسموح ال broker يدين ال investor
+
+24
+00:02:24,190 --> 00:02:29,130
+لكن لو حكينا مثلا لو كانت الأسعار بهذه الطريقة هذه
+
+25
+00:02:32,190 --> 00:02:35,950
+هن احتمالات الانخفاض اكتر من احتمالات الارتفاع او
+
+26
+00:02:35,950 --> 00:02:39,410
+احتمالات الارتفاع اكتر من احتمالات الانخفاض فهن ال
+
+27
+00:02:39,410 --> 00:02:42,630
+.. ال broker مابيعطيش .. بيدينش ال .. ال investor
+
+28
+00:02:42,630 --> 00:02:48,570
+ال stocks فال short sale غالبا بيسير لما يكون ال
+
+29
+00:02:48,570 --> 00:02:52,570
+.. ال market up لما يكون ال market up فبيكون
+
+30
+00:02:52,570 --> 00:02:57,650
+احتمالات الانخفاض اكتر من احتمالات الارتفاع فلو
+
+31
+00:02:57,650 --> 00:03:04,200
+جينا احنا هن ال stockwe borrow stock from the
+
+32
+00:03:04,200 --> 00:03:07,500
+broker احنا ديالنا stock من ال broker دلوقت ما
+
+33
+00:03:07,500 --> 00:03:11,240
+ديالناش فلوس we borrow stocks for instance we
+
+34
+00:03:11,240 --> 00:03:16,160
+borrow one hundred stocks we sell them off احنا
+
+35
+00:03:16,160 --> 00:03:21,520
+يااش بيعناهم دلوقت احنا مااشترينا احنا we start
+
+36
+00:03:21,520 --> 00:03:26,200
+selling off the stock كان السعر على one hundred
+
+37
+00:03:28,350 --> 00:03:31,170
+بيعناها على one hundred فصار في جيبتنا كام؟ مية
+
+38
+00:03:31,170 --> 00:03:35,550
+دولار لو كان عندنا مية share فبصير عندنا مية في
+
+39
+00:03:35,550 --> 00:03:42,010
+مية كم؟ عشر تلاف دولار okay هلأ الأسعار starting
+
+40
+00:03:42,010 --> 00:03:48,710
+to go down till for instance sixty حتى وصلت ستين
+
+41
+00:03:48,710 --> 00:03:53,930
+طبعا عند المرحلة هذه ممكن احنا بنعمل اذا عملنا
+
+42
+00:03:53,930 --> 00:04:00,440
+sell هان ايش هنعمل هان؟ هنعمل buyليش نعمل buy؟
+
+43
+00:04:00,440 --> 00:04:05,640
+عشان نرجع ال stocks لمن؟ لل .. لل broker فلما نعمل
+
+44
+00:04:05,640 --> 00:04:11,640
+buy ستين اللي هو ستين .. ستين سهم في .. ستين دولار
+
+45
+00:04:11,640 --> 00:04:16,620
+عفوا في مية سهم تطلع كام؟ ست الاف دولار لما نعمل
+
+46
+00:04:16,620 --> 00:04:21,000
+buy بيطلع من .. من جبتنا فلوس نشتري فكام رمحنا من
+
+47
+00:04:21,000 --> 00:04:26,720
+ورا هالشغل هاي؟ أربع تلاف دولارfour thousand
+
+48
+00:04:26,720 --> 00:04:34,820
+dollar okay لكن مثلا بعد أسبوع بعد أسبوع بعد أسبوع
+
+49
+00:04:34,820 --> 00:04:40,300
+الأسعار كانت متخفضة نازلة إذا في ال short sale ال
+
+50
+00:04:40,300 --> 00:04:45,640
+investors they prefer the prices to go down ال
+
+51
+00:04:45,640 --> 00:04:48,460
+investors لما بيكونوا عاملين short sale بفضلوا
+
+52
+00:04:48,460 --> 00:04:52,380
+الأسعار يتنخفض لأنه كل ما انخفضت الأسعار كل ما
+
+53
+00:04:52,380 --> 00:04:57,580
+بزيد الربح تبعهمو هذا سبب عمل ال financial crisis
+
+54
+00:04:57,580 --> 00:05:03,840
+عمل سبب مش .. مش هو السبب الرئيسي لكن one of the
+
+55
+00:05:03,840 --> 00:05:06,640
+.. the .. the important or the major problem in
+
+56
+00:05:06,640 --> 00:05:09,720
+the .. in the financial market crisis is the short
+
+57
+00:05:09,720 --> 00:05:12,940
+sale يعني هذا عمل برضه مشكلة في الأزمة المالية
+
+58
+00:05:12,940 --> 00:05:15,680
+يعني خلينا نحكي مثلا this group prefer the prices
+
+59
+00:05:15,680 --> 00:05:19,160
+to go down and this group prefer the prices to go
+
+60
+00:05:19,160 --> 00:05:22,900
+up يعني في صار في السوق ناس مصلحتهم السوق ينزل و
+
+61
+00:05:22,900 --> 00:05:27,700
+في ناس مصلحتهم السوق يطلعand if the .. if the
+
+62
+00:05:27,700 --> 00:05:30,860
+number of people prefer the prices to go down
+
+63
+00:05:30,860 --> 00:05:34,180
+exceed the number of people prefer the prices to
+
+64
+00:05:34,180 --> 00:05:37,700
+go up so the financial market will go down يعني
+
+65
+00:05:37,700 --> 00:05:40,920
+إذا كان عدد الناس اللي بفضله للسوق ينزل أكتر من
+
+66
+00:05:40,920 --> 00:05:43,740
+عدد الناس اللي بفضله السوق يطلع وبالتالي السوق
+
+67
+00:05:43,740 --> 00:05:49,040
+هينزل هذا بيعمل ال .. make the financial crisis
+
+68
+00:05:49,040 --> 00:05:53,280
+worse and worse يعني بعمق الأزمة المالية so the ..
+
+69
+00:05:53,280 --> 00:05:56,800
+the financial market committeeor the security
+
+70
+00:05:56,800 --> 00:06:00,340
+exchange commission stopped the short sales in
+
+71
+00:06:00,340 --> 00:06:07,060
+2009 and 2008 في ال 2008 و 2009 وقفوا ال short
+
+72
+00:06:07,060 --> 00:06:12,180
+sale لأنه صار في ناس مصطحتهم السوق ينزل ومصطحة ال
+
+73
+00:06:12,180 --> 00:06:16,240
+financial market commission انه بدهم السوق يطلع ف
+
+74
+00:06:16,240 --> 00:06:19,960
+they stop people who prefer that the financial
+
+75
+00:06:19,960 --> 00:06:24,800
+market is going down فهذه مش بسيطة ال short sale
+
+76
+00:06:26,390 --> 00:06:30,610
+فهي الربح طيب المشكلة وين؟ if the prices goes up
+
+77
+00:06:30,610 --> 00:06:38,090
+إذا الأسعار طلعت okay for instance let's say if
+
+78
+00:06:38,090 --> 00:06:42,970
+the prices goes to 120 so
+
+79
+00:06:42,970 --> 00:06:47,710
+he .. he want to buy the .. the stocks at 120 so
+
+80
+00:06:47,710 --> 00:06:54,110
+we have 120 times 100 so he has to pay 1000 or
+
+81
+00:06:54,110 --> 00:07:01,160
+12000Okay twelve thousands minus and ten thousand
+
+82
+00:07:01,160 --> 00:07:06,380
+plus so he or she lost minus two thousands بيخسر
+
+83
+00:07:06,380 --> 00:07:14,680
+الفين consider that انتبهوا لل short sale ال short
+
+84
+00:07:14,680 --> 00:07:20,500
+sale at the beginning he paid nothing في البداية
+
+85
+00:07:20,500 --> 00:07:26,120
+هو مادفعش اشيand when he lost 2000 he lost from
+
+86
+00:07:26,120 --> 00:07:29,680
+the broker account هو خسر من .. من مصال ال broker
+
+87
+00:07:29,680 --> 00:07:34,400
+because of this situation بهذا السبب the broker
+
+88
+00:07:34,400 --> 00:07:39,260
+asking the investor to put collateral ال .. ال
+
+89
+00:07:39,260 --> 00:07:42,860
+broker اللي هو ال .. ال .. السمسار او ال dealer
+
+90
+00:07:42,860 --> 00:07:47,600
+بطلب من ال investor يحط collateral collateral يعني
+
+91
+00:07:47,600 --> 00:07:54,440
+ضماناتOkay? So if he lost his money, it means he
+
+92
+00:07:54,440 --> 00:07:57,760
+lost his collateral. إذا بيخسر الفلوس، بده يخسر من
+
+93
+00:07:57,760 --> 00:08:00,100
+ال collateral تبعته، من الدمونات، not from the
+
+94
+00:08:00,100 --> 00:08:04,160
+broker fund،
+
+95
+00:08:04,160 --> 00:08:07,400
+ليش من الفلوس ال broker؟ يعني إحنا خلينا نرجع لل
+
+96
+00:08:07,400 --> 00:08:11,580
+short sale. لما صار في .. عندنا sale، ال investors
+
+97
+00:08:11,580 --> 00:08:16,230
+ما دفعش إشيمباشر راح ودّين ال .. ال stocks دين
+
+98
+00:08:16,230 --> 00:08:21,930
+وراح باعهم وعمل الصفقة تبعتهم he paid nothing طب
+
+99
+00:08:21,930 --> 00:08:26,310
+هذا ممكن يعمل مشاكل في الأسواق المالية okay فعشان
+
+100
+00:08:26,310 --> 00:08:31,610
+هيك ال .. ال broker asking the .. the investors to
+
+101
+00:08:31,610 --> 00:08:34,370
+put collateral ممكن ال collateral تكون deposit
+
+102
+00:08:34,370 --> 00:08:40,530
+وديعة ممكن تكون treasury bills bonds anythingOkay
+
+103
+00:08:40,530 --> 00:08:45,050
+and this collateral is considered as a margin عشان
+
+104
+00:08:45,050 --> 00:08:48,230
+نرجع لما هو فكرة ال margin ال collateral تعتبر ايش
+
+105
+00:08:48,230 --> 00:08:54,970
+margin يعني هامش okay بناء عليه بي .. بيعمل ال
+
+106
+00:08:54,970 --> 00:09:00,870
+investor trades okay فنرجع لل short sale الهدف من
+
+107
+00:09:00,870 --> 00:09:05,370
+ال short sale زي ما انا حكيتلكمthe main objective
+
+108
+00:09:05,370 --> 00:09:09,310
+of the short sale to profit from a decline زي ما
+
+109
+00:09:09,310 --> 00:09:15,030
+تشايفين in the prices of stock or security يعني
+
+110
+00:09:15,030 --> 00:09:20,570
+الهدف أنه احنا نربح كل ما السوق نزل okay بعكس إذا
+
+111
+00:09:20,570 --> 00:09:26,620
+أنا بدأت buy احنا بنربح لما السوق يهاش يطلعOkay
+
+112
+00:09:26,620 --> 00:09:31,260
+لما أنا بعمل buy بشتري بربح لما السوق يطلع لما كنت
+
+113
+00:09:31,260 --> 00:09:38,260
+ببدأ في sell بربح لما السوق يبدأ ينزل mechanics
+
+114
+00:09:38,260 --> 00:09:42,420
+the mechanisms of doing this I explained this but
+
+115
+00:09:42,420 --> 00:09:47,160
+just to to give you more details the mechanisms of
+
+116
+00:09:47,160 --> 00:09:50,160
+doing this borrow stock through a dealer زي ما
+
+117
+00:09:50,160 --> 00:09:53,100
+حكينا في البداية from the buyer stock be careful
+
+118
+00:09:53,100 --> 00:09:57,840
+we are borrowing stockاحنا بنداين أيش؟ Stock and
+
+119
+00:09:57,840 --> 00:10:01,040
+when we pay back, we pay back Stock كمان لما
+
+120
+00:10:01,040 --> 00:10:06,780
+بنرجع، بنرجع أيش؟ بنرجع Stock the second sell it
+
+121
+00:10:06,780 --> 00:10:11,580
+and deposit proceeds and margin in accounts بنبيع
+
+122
+00:10:11,580 --> 00:10:16,720
+المبلغ، بنبيع ال security sell it اللي هو احنا
+
+123
+00:10:16,720 --> 00:10:23,970
+جابلاش احنا بيبناها بيبناها بعشر تلاف صح؟زائد
+
+124
+00:10:23,970 --> 00:10:29,170
+انتبهان and deposit في عندنا بنبيع وكمان في وديعة
+
+125
+00:10:29,170 --> 00:10:31,850
+لازم نحطها اللي هو اللي حكينا عنها اللي هو الضمانة
+
+126
+00:10:31,850 --> 00:10:36,330
+and deposit proceeds and margin in account كمان
+
+127
+00:10:36,330 --> 00:10:40,290
+بنودعهم و الضمانات في نفطر الضمانات كانت خمسين ألف
+
+128
+00:10:40,290 --> 00:10:44,610
+دولار فسعر كم في حساب ال .. مية و خمسين ألف دولار
+
+129
+00:10:44,610 --> 00:10:53,790
+خمسين ألف زائد .. عفوا نفطرت خمس تلاف دولارOkay
+
+130
+00:10:53,790 --> 00:10:56,310
+بيصير خمسة عشر أربع دولار عشان طبعا هي المبلغ اللي
+
+131
+00:10:56,310 --> 00:11:00,050
+بيطلب ال broker من ال Tesla لإيجاره قبل ما .. عشان
+
+132
+00:11:00,050 --> 00:11:03,010
+ليه السلسل؟ اه اللي هو الدولار .. لأ لأ هذا بيختلف
+
+133
+00:11:03,010 --> 00:11:07,290
+شوية احنا بنحكي عن short sale اه في ال .. في ال ..
+
+134
+00:11:07,290 --> 00:11:10,790
+في ال buying العادى بطلب منه زي ما انت حكيته بيطلب
+
+135
+00:11:10,790 --> 00:11:14,610
+منه فلوس يبدأ يشتغل فيهم بس في short sale لإن هو
+
+136
+00:11:14,610 --> 00:11:18,670
+مابدأش يشتري بيبدأ في بيع .. في بيع okay فهو بيدعي
+
+137
+00:11:18,670 --> 00:11:25,020
+يعني stocksفبطلب منه إنه يكون في عنده ضمانة اللي
+
+138
+00:11:25,020 --> 00:11:32,160
+هو وديعة مثلا أو أي إشي okay فبعد ما يبيع ال .. ال
+
+139
+00:11:32,160 --> 00:11:36,580
+stocks بوضعهم في حساب ال broker و بإضافة للضمانة
+
+140
+00:11:36,580 --> 00:11:39,640
+بصير عنده خمستاشر ألف اللي هو عشر تلاف ال stocks
+
+141
+00:11:39,640 --> 00:11:42,300
+اللي باعها و الخمس تلاف اللي هو الضمانة بتاعته
+
+142
+00:11:44,500 --> 00:11:47,660
+after a period of time بعد فترة معينة هم متفقين
+
+143
+00:11:47,660 --> 00:11:51,060
+أنه هم يتدينوا مثلا مبلغ لمدة أسبوع أو شهر أو
+
+144
+00:11:51,060 --> 00:11:55,520
+اللذي هو okay closing out the position بعد هذه
+
+145
+00:11:55,520 --> 00:11:59,600
+الفترة بيصير إغلاق لل position يعني مثلا إذا كان
+
+146
+00:11:59,600 --> 00:12:07,620
+بنخفض بربح وإذا كان برتفع بيخسر okay and after he
+
+147
+00:12:07,620 --> 00:12:10,000
+or she closed the position بعد ما هم يسكروا ال
+
+148
+00:12:10,000 --> 00:12:15,270
+position سبعتهمthe investor has to .. to retain
+
+149
+00:12:15,270 --> 00:12:21,130
+the stocks to the .. to the broker لازم ارجع ليش؟
+
+150
+00:12:21,130 --> 00:12:29,750
+ال stocks لل broker واضحة طيب أسهم
+
+151
+00:12:29,750 --> 00:12:32,290
+بسهم مش فلوس دلوقت هذي يعني is a matter of
+
+152
+00:12:32,290 --> 00:12:36,340
+confusionSo be careful on your exam, try to answer
+
+153
+00:12:36,340 --> 00:12:39,300
+the questions at the end of this chapter, there is
+
+154
+00:12:39,300 --> 00:12:42,220
+at least you have three four questions about the
+
+155
+00:12:42,220 --> 00:12:45,980
+short cells موجود عندكم حوالي تلت أربع أسئلة على
+
+156
+00:12:45,980 --> 00:12:51,080
+هذا الموضوع خليني أاخد مثال المهم أنه درجة أسنان
+
+157
+00:12:51,080 --> 00:12:53,500
+أسفل كيف هتتعرف بسرعة و تتعرف بسرعة
+
+158
+00:12:57,820 --> 00:13:02,160
+كيف هتظهر ربح و الخسارة طيب هلأ خليني افكر هان هو
+
+159
+00:13:02,160 --> 00:13:06,060
+الدايا ليه تساهم صح؟ أخد الأسهم أخد الأسهم هلأ
+
+160
+00:13:06,060 --> 00:13:10,780
+الأسهم معاه فراح باع الأسهم على 100 دولار فكان في
+
+161
+00:13:10,780 --> 00:13:16,380
+.. في حسابه اه okay عشر تلاف نفترض عشر تلاف سبب
+
+162
+00:13:16,380 --> 00:13:21,250
+هلأ اذا if the price is going uphe will lose if
+
+163
+00:13:21,250 --> 00:13:25,950
+the prices go down make a profit ليش؟ لأن هو هذا
+
+164
+00:13:25,950 --> 00:13:30,190
+باعهم فدخل في ال pocket سبعة فلوس مصاري الف دولار
+
+165
+00:13:30,190 --> 00:13:33,850
+هلأ لما ينزل السعر بدو يشتريه عشان يرجع ال stocks
+
+166
+00:13:33,850 --> 00:13:37,990
+فنزل السعر لستين دولار فكدهاش بده يدفع عشان يشتري
+
+167
+00:13:37,990 --> 00:13:44,960
+الأسهم ستين دولار فبطلع من جيبته ستين دولارفربح
+
+168
+00:13:44,960 --> 00:13:48,020
+ستين اللي طلعوا اللي هو هنا المية دخلوا في ال ..
+
+169
+00:13:48,020 --> 00:13:51,800
+في الجيبة تبعته و ستين طلعوا فبطلع ربحان اربعين
+
+170
+00:13:51,800 --> 00:13:56,660
+دولار اربعين في مثلا في مية سهم بطلع ربحه اربع
+
+171
+00:13:56,660 --> 00:14:01,600
+تلاف سهم لو كان في deposit في حسابه بيقول اربع
+
+172
+00:14:01,600 --> 00:14:05,140
+تلاف زائد خمس تلاف بيصير عنده نسعة تلاف دولار في
+
+173
+00:14:05,140 --> 00:14:07,860
+حسابه okay هسيئ مثلا
+
+174
+00:14:11,630 --> 00:14:17,350
+Okay let's take a example هنا دعنا ناخد مثال مثال
+
+175
+00:14:17,350 --> 00:14:20,830
+آخر dot
+
+176
+00:14:20,830 --> 00:14:25,710
+bomb dot bomb يعني شركة اشترت بدى تعمل one
+
+177
+00:14:25,710 --> 00:14:32,590
+thousand sharesshort sale يعني هم بدهم اتدينوا ألف
+
+178
+00:14:32,590 --> 00:14:35,690
+سهم احنا كنا في مثالنا مية صح احنا هنا بناخد ألف
+
+179
+00:14:35,690 --> 00:14:40,610
+سهم اتدينوا ألف سهم okay fifty percent initial
+
+180
+00:14:40,610 --> 00:14:44,050
+margin ايش يعني هال initial margin fifty percent
+
+181
+00:14:44,050 --> 00:14:49,330
+هي ال collateral خمسين في المية عشان نعرف كام
+
+182
+00:14:49,330 --> 00:14:54,070
+خمسين في المية لها ال initial marginيعني ال
+
+183
+00:14:54,070 --> 00:14:56,270
+collateral اللي هو الدماء المطلوبة خمسين في المية
+
+184
+00:14:56,270 --> 00:14:59,910
+اللي هو ال deposit اللي تاوعي حكينا فيها 30% is
+
+185
+00:14:59,910 --> 00:15:04,030
+the maintenance margin ايش ال maintenance margin؟
+
+186
+00:15:04,030 --> 00:15:08,750
+يلا اشرحتكوا يا مرة فاتت maintenance margin هامش
+
+187
+00:15:08,750 --> 00:15:13,330
+الصيانة طب ايش هذا .. ليش هامش الصيانة؟ ليش
+
+188
+00:15:13,330 --> 00:15:16,530
+بنعمله؟ ليش ال broker بيعمل هامش الصيانة؟
+
+189
+00:15:19,160 --> 00:15:23,380
+أه لأنه إذا ال .. إذا ال investor بيضلوا يتاجر
+
+190
+00:15:23,380 --> 00:15:29,920
+فهيخسر فلوسه فهو زي ما حكنالكم أنه في ethics بال
+
+191
+00:15:29,920 --> 00:15:33,380
+financial markets انتبهوا لكلام اللي بحكيه في
+
+192
+00:15:33,380 --> 00:15:35,680
+ethics بال financial markets بال financial market
+
+193
+00:15:35,680 --> 00:15:40,160
+إذا شافوا واحد و خاصة in the .. in the high
+
+194
+00:15:40,160 --> 00:15:44,180
+regulated markets في ال high regulated marketsفي
+
+195
+00:15:44,180 --> 00:15:47,240
+يعني أسواق مالية فيها تعليمات قوية و خاصة بعد
+
+196
+00:15:47,240 --> 00:15:51,140
+الأزمة العالمية شو اللي بيصير؟ إذا شافوا investors
+
+197
+00:15:51,140 --> 00:15:54,820
+جايب معاه فلوس نفترض أنه جايب معاه مية ألف دولار
+
+198
+00:15:54,820 --> 00:16:01,160
+أو بدأ يعمل trades خسر الأول عشر تلاف بعدين خسر
+
+199
+00:16:01,160 --> 00:16:04,900
+العشر تلاف اللي بعديها so the dealer has to stop
+
+200
+00:16:04,900 --> 00:16:10,740
+him ال dealer لازم واقفه because if he continues
+
+201
+00:16:11,640 --> 00:16:16,580
+إذا ضلوا يكمل he will lose all of his money هيخسار
+
+202
+00:16:16,580 --> 00:16:20,700
+كل فلوسه so from ethical perspective from ethical
+
+203
+00:16:20,700 --> 00:16:25,760
+perspective the dealer ask him to stop because if
+
+204
+00:16:25,760 --> 00:16:30,540
+he continues he will lose his money okay and if he
+
+205
+00:16:30,540 --> 00:16:34,560
+didn't listen to the dealer the dealer will close
+
+206
+00:16:34,560 --> 00:16:38,600
+and asking him take your money and go to your mom
+
+207
+00:16:39,810 --> 00:16:43,050
+know how to trade and coming back روح روح و اتعلم
+
+208
+00:16:43,050 --> 00:16:46,730
+كيف تشتغل و بعدين ارجعلنا so this is ethical
+
+209
+00:16:46,730 --> 00:16:50,930
+things in the financial market so the idea here is
+
+210
+00:16:50,930 --> 00:16:56,430
+the financial market try to protect the investor
+
+211
+00:16:56,430 --> 00:17:05,180
+wealth okay and because of thisالعامل يطلب من
+
+212
+00:17:05,180 --> 00:17:08,640
+المستخدم أن يقوم باستخدام كولاترال في هذه الحالة
+
+213
+00:17:08,640 --> 00:17:16,080
+50% وهو المقارنة الأولى إذا كان المستخدم يستمر في
+
+214
+00:17:16,080 --> 00:17:20,680
+فقدر ماله في مقارنة التعامل سيفعل مقارنة التعامل
+
+215
+00:17:20,680 --> 00:17:23,720
+الشركة أو العامل يفعل مقارنة التعامل يطلب منه مال
+
+216
+00:17:23,720 --> 00:17:28,840
+اضافية إذا لم يسمع العامل يغلق الموقع
+
+217
+00:17:32,480 --> 00:17:37,280
+الـ 30% our question is هي what is the price at
+
+218
+00:17:37,280 --> 00:17:43,720
+which the .. the broker make the .. the
+
+219
+00:17:43,720 --> 00:17:47,560
+maintenance call تعتقدوا هيكون السعر أعلى من 100
+
+220
+00:17:47,560 --> 00:17:52,760
+ولا أقل من 100؟ أشوف شطرتكم لما يعمل maintenance
+
+221
+00:17:52,760 --> 00:17:55,140
+.. maintenance call or maintenance margin ال
+
+222
+00:17:55,140 --> 00:17:58,860
+broker أعلى من 100 أعلى من 100؟ ليش أعلى من 100؟
+
+223
+00:17:58,860 --> 00:18:03,180
+أهي لأن بعد المية بتبقى الخسارةلأن it is not worth
+
+224
+00:18:03,180 --> 00:18:06,320
+to do maintenance margin below one hundred because
+
+225
+00:18:06,320 --> 00:18:09,020
+below one hundred the investor is making profits
+
+226
+00:18:09,020 --> 00:18:14,400
+بيعمل profits but above one hundred the yes the
+
+227
+00:18:14,400 --> 00:18:19,240
+broker starting to lose his money so this is why
+
+228
+00:18:19,240 --> 00:18:23,420
+the maintenance margin is at a price above the one
+
+229
+00:18:23,420 --> 00:18:26,520
+hundred على سعر أعلى من ال one hundred okay
+
+230
+00:18:31,390 --> 00:18:35,470
+Okay so now let's carry on the initial price is
+
+231
+00:18:35,470 --> 00:18:40,530
+one hundred فلو احنا حسبنا حساب بسيط احنا عندنا
+
+232
+00:18:40,530 --> 00:18:44,270
+الف ساهم من الداية صح one thousand times one
+
+233
+00:18:44,270 --> 00:18:51,150
+hundred فبطلع عندنا ميت الف دولار صح ال initial
+
+234
+00:18:51,150 --> 00:18:54,770
+margin fifty percent يعني ال collateral fifty
+
+235
+00:18:54,770 --> 00:18:59,080
+percent كداش لازم ندفع collateralخمسين ألف فبتكون
+
+236
+00:18:59,080 --> 00:19:02,340
+عندنا في الخمسين ألف وديه treasure bills any
+
+237
+00:19:02,340 --> 00:19:07,660
+collateral okay هلأ بضل عندنا احنا نعرف ال .. ال
+
+238
+00:19:07,660 --> 00:19:10,060
+initial .. ال .. ال .. ال maintenance margin
+
+239
+00:19:10,060 --> 00:19:14,900
+فاكرين احنا بالأول كنا نحسب ال maintenance margin
+
+240
+00:19:14,900 --> 00:19:21,040
+طيب هلأ هيفصلناها ال sales proceeds مائة ألف ليها
+
+241
+00:19:21,040 --> 00:19:25,540
+حسبناها و ال margin and equity fifty percentاللي
+
+242
+00:19:25,540 --> 00:19:29,940
+هي ال collateral و ال stock owed اللي دياناهم ألف
+
+243
+00:19:29,940 --> 00:19:36,240
+سهم just for more explanation في حد مش فاهم لحد
+
+244
+00:19:36,240 --> 00:19:40,820
+اللحظة هذه الأرقام من وين اجت واضحة okay هلا بدنا
+
+245
+00:19:40,820 --> 00:19:44,180
+نفسر ال asset و ال liabilities ايش ال asset الأصول
+
+246
+00:19:44,180 --> 00:19:47,700
+بتاعة ال investor ولا الانتزامات العالية لل
+
+247
+00:19:47,700 --> 00:19:51,400
+investors طيب لو احنا فرضنا
+
+248
+00:19:55,340 --> 00:20:03,640
+عمل سن العالمية و الأسعار fortunately it's went to
+
+249
+00:20:03,640 --> 00:20:08,770
+seventy الأسعار نزلت لسبعينكم ربح ال .. ال
+
+250
+00:20:08,770 --> 00:20:16,210
+industrial؟ تلاتين تلاتين في أكم سحب؟ ألف one
+
+251
+00:20:16,210 --> 00:20:20,770
+thousand ف تلاتين ألف طيب إذا في ال asset طبعا
+
+252
+00:20:20,770 --> 00:20:23,550
+توقع تلاتين ألف بس تلاتين ألف في ال asset و الضمان
+
+253
+00:20:23,550 --> 00:20:30,570
+زائد ضمان خمسين ألف بتطلع كام؟ تمانين ألف هذا إذا
+
+254
+00:20:30,570 --> 00:20:38,750
+if the price going as he expectedزي إذا كانت
+
+255
+00:20:38,750 --> 00:20:45,610
+الأسعار زي ما أتوقعنا إذا
+
+256
+00:20:45,610 --> 00:20:49,510
+كانت الأسعار زي ما أتوقعنا okay so if the price
+
+257
+00:20:49,510 --> 00:20:54,290
+goes as we expected it means we make a profit
+
+258
+00:20:54,290 --> 00:20:58,230
+thirty thousand plus fifty thousand is the
+
+259
+00:20:58,230 --> 00:21:01,790
+collateral so in our assets we will have eighty
+
+260
+00:21:01,790 --> 00:21:07,440
+thousandof them 30,000 profit and 50,000 as
+
+261
+00:21:07,440 --> 00:21:11,820
+collateral or as deposit or treasury bills زى ما
+
+262
+00:21:11,820 --> 00:21:15,660
+تشايفين سبعين
+
+263
+00:21:15,660 --> 00:21:18,600
+ألف ال liabilities اللى هو سبعين ضرب ال .. okay
+
+264
+00:21:18,600 --> 00:21:23,540
+اللى هو سبعين ضرب الألف فبصفر عنده تمانين ألف اللى
+
+265
+00:21:23,540 --> 00:21:28,820
+حسبناها ال equity من وين أجت تلاتين ألف plus fifty
+
+266
+00:21:28,820 --> 00:21:30,320
+percent طيب
+
+267
+00:21:36,620 --> 00:21:40,320
+طبعا هاي 80 ألف ناقص ال 50 ألف طلع عنده 30 ألف و
+
+268
+00:21:40,320 --> 00:21:47,000
+نعرف كيف تعمل و حسبناكوا إياها كيف إجت okay
+
+269
+00:21:47,000 --> 00:21:52,800
+هلأ ال .. the big question if the prices goes up
+
+270
+00:21:52,800 --> 00:22:00,740
+إذا كان الأسعار رحت إلى أعلى so in this case the
+
+271
+00:22:00,740 --> 00:22:04,320
+investor is starting to lose his or her money ال
+
+272
+00:22:04,320 --> 00:22:09,510
+investors بيبدأ يخسر الفلوس تبعتهour question does
+
+273
+00:22:09,510 --> 00:22:15,070
+the broker leave him alone؟ هل هيتركه لو واحد
+
+274
+00:22:15,070 --> 00:22:20,330
+يشتغل؟ no he has to stop him at some places يعني
+
+275
+00:22:20,330 --> 00:22:25,070
+عند حد معين هيوقفه because he doesn't want him to
+
+276
+00:22:25,070 --> 00:22:30,170
+lose his money and if he lost his money the lose
+
+277
+00:22:30,170 --> 00:22:35,040
+will leak to the broker accountsكمان إذا ضالوا
+
+278
+00:22:35,040 --> 00:22:40,420
+خسرهوا فلوسه الخسائر هتتسرب لل .. لل broker و هذا
+
+279
+00:22:40,420 --> 00:22:45,140
+بنات احنا بنحكيلكوا كلام هذا عشان كمان انتوا يعني
+
+280
+00:22:45,140 --> 00:22:49,240
+أكيد بكرا هتشتغلوا في مؤسسات و في كذا و يعني
+
+281
+00:22:49,240 --> 00:22:55,120
+تكونوا ان شاء الله يعني من السيدات أعمال ان شاء
+
+282
+00:22:55,120 --> 00:22:58,660
+الله هذا في ethics معلمنا هذا الطريقة فيها ethics
+
+283
+00:22:58,660 --> 00:23:02,340
+ايش معنى ethics فيها أخلاقيعني لما تشوفوا واحد
+
+284
+00:23:02,340 --> 00:23:07,620
+تاجر بتاجر غلط و واحد بيخسر فلوسه ما إحنا نستغلهم
+
+285
+00:23:07,620 --> 00:23:13,080
+at some place we have to stop him لازم نوقفه و
+
+286
+00:23:13,080 --> 00:23:17,300
+نقوله please روح اتعلم كيف تشتغل بعدين بتيجي لإن
+
+287
+00:23:17,300 --> 00:23:21,180
+في بعض تجار هيروح يستغله و ياخد فلوسه كلها okay و
+
+288
+00:23:21,180 --> 00:23:25,600
+ينصب عليه بالعربي و يستغل عدم فهمه بالميكانزم تبع
+
+289
+00:23:25,600 --> 00:23:30,810
+السوقو هذا بندخل في ال .. في عدم الأخلاق .. عدم
+
+290
+00:23:30,810 --> 00:23:34,310
+أخلاقية المهنة فهون بال .. بال .. بال financial
+
+291
+00:23:34,310 --> 00:23:38,670
+market at some place they have to stop him and to
+
+292
+00:23:38,670 --> 00:23:42,570
+ask him to leave the markets أو حابب يتضلق في
+
+293
+00:23:42,570 --> 00:23:47,150
+السوق okay bring cash يعني bring cash it's like to
+
+294
+00:23:47,150 --> 00:23:50,050
+pressurize on him to leave the markets يعني كأنه
+
+295
+00:23:50,050 --> 00:23:52,070
+بطريقة أخرى بيقوله امشي
+
+296
+00:23:54,470 --> 00:24:00,030
+Okay so our question at what price they ask for
+
+297
+00:24:00,030 --> 00:24:03,690
+maintenance margin فهنحسبها المعادلة اللي أخدناها
+
+298
+00:24:03,690 --> 00:24:10,190
+بتاعت زمان اللي هو زي ما أنتوا شايفين فاكرين ال
+
+299
+00:24:10,190 --> 00:24:16,650
+150 ألف من وين إجت؟ إجت من ال .. ال .. اللي هو
+
+300
+00:24:16,650 --> 00:24:23,920
+number of shares ضرب ل priceاللي هو ضرب ال price
+
+301
+00:24:23,920 --> 00:24:27,180
+المعادلة اللي أعطاناها هي زائد ال collateral ال
+
+302
+00:24:27,180 --> 00:24:31,720
+collateral خمسين ألف فهي مية plus خمسين اللي هو
+
+303
+00:24:31,720 --> 00:24:39,120
+مية و خمسين ألف okay minus الف P okay ال الف P
+
+304
+00:24:39,120 --> 00:24:42,260
+اللي هو number of shares ضرب ال price اللي احنا مش
+
+305
+00:24:42,260 --> 00:24:46,480
+عارفينه اللي احنا هنوجده تقسيم ال الف P بتساوي
+
+306
+00:24:46,480 --> 00:24:53,490
+thirty percent لو احنا حسبناهانحسبها مع بعض 150000
+
+307
+00:24:53,490 --> 00:25:06,230
+-1000P تقسيم 1000P بتساوي 30% صح؟ ال 1000P بتيجي
+
+308
+00:25:06,230 --> 00:25:18,530
+مع ال 30% بتصير ايش؟ 300P بتساوي 150000-1000P
+
+309
+00:25:20,270 --> 00:25:28,050
+الألف بتيجي هان بتسيي ال 700P بتساوي 150 ألف من
+
+310
+00:25:28,050 --> 00:25:36,210
+نحكي ال 150 ألف 150 ألف تقسيم 700 بتساوي ال P من
+
+311
+00:25:36,210 --> 00:25:43,330
+هن بنعرف ال P قسم ال 150 ألف على 700 كم؟ لأ في إيش
+
+312
+00:25:43,330 --> 00:25:45,350
+غلط يكون 115
+
+313
+00:25:50,840 --> 00:25:55,220
+احنا هان كام؟ ألف ألف
+
+314
+00:25:55,220 --> 00:26:01,640
+بي بتساوي 30% 30% بتضربها في الألف تلاتين في المية
+
+315
+00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:08,580
+ضرب الألف تلاتمية بي okay تلاتمية بي بتساوي مية و
+
+316
+00:26:08,580 --> 00:26:14,220
+خمسين ألف ناقص الألف بي فالألف بي بتيجي هان بتصير
+
+317
+00:26:14,220 --> 00:26:20,730
+ألف تلاتمية بي بتساوي مية و خمسين ألف صح؟فالمية و
+
+318
+00:26:20,730 --> 00:26:27,370
+خمسين ألف على الف و تلات مية okay جاوبوا شوفوا هيش
+
+319
+00:26:27,370 --> 00:26:36,410
+ال .. تطلع مية و خمستاشر okay ده
+
+320
+00:26:36,410 --> 00:26:39,450
+بس نجلة الإشارة بتاع اللغة okay
+
+321
+00:26:45,250 --> 00:26:50,230
+فبتطلع 150 ألف على 1300 بتطلع 115 طيب إيش هي ال
+
+322
+00:26:50,230 --> 00:26:56,230
+115 لو أحنا لسمناها على بسم البياني هان ال 115
+
+323
+00:26:56,230 --> 00:27:02,530
+اللي above هان لازم يكون عنده ال initial margin
+
+324
+00:27:02,530 --> 00:27:10,750
+بيكون كام خسر 115 بيكون 15 خسر 15 دولار ضرب ال
+
+325
+00:27:10,750 --> 00:27:19,130
+100015000 عشان كمل احنا اه طيب طب كام بيبقى في ال
+
+326
+00:27:19,130 --> 00:27:25,430
+equity تبعته كام برصيد ال investor 50000 بيكون
+
+327
+00:27:25,430 --> 00:27:34,170
+عنده 50000 ناقص ال 15000 بيطلع 35000 طب كام نسبة
+
+328
+00:27:34,170 --> 00:27:40,070
+الخسارة نسبة الخسارة كام اللي هو فاكرين لما كنا
+
+329
+00:27:40,070 --> 00:27:48,380
+نعود B1minus P note على P note صح اه yes okay فهو
+
+330
+00:27:48,380 --> 00:27:52,540
+كان عنده خمسين الف بدأ بالخمسين الف خمسين الف
+
+331
+00:27:52,540 --> 00:28:00,620
+وخسرها اللي هو الخمستاشر الف okay فنسبة الخسارة
+
+332
+00:28:00,620 --> 00:28:04,780
+اللي هي عندها خمستاشر الف من ناقص على الخمسين الف
+
+333
+00:28:04,780 --> 00:28:11,100
+okay بطلع خسر كام من ثرواته حوالي اكتر من تلاتين
+
+334
+00:28:11,100 --> 00:28:16,130
+فميةمصبوط؟ يعني لإنه خمستاشر واحد خمسة وأربعين
+
+335
+00:28:16,130 --> 00:28:20,470
+يعني حوالي أكتر من تلاتين فمية خسر من الثروة تبعته
+
+336
+00:28:20,470 --> 00:28:25,870
+تلاتين فمية بالظبط يعني خسر من الثروة تبعته
+
+337
+00:28:25,870 --> 00:28:33,570
+لإندستور تلاتين فمية تمام؟
+
+338
+00:28:33,570 --> 00:28:36,850
+أي
+
+339
+00:28:36,850 --> 00:28:37,410
+سؤال؟
+
+340
+00:28:42,480 --> 00:28:56,900
+حسين تصفر علينا حد
+
+341
+00:28:56,900 --> 00:28:58,820
+عنده سؤال .. حد عنده سؤال هان
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/B-QGYVkzr-s_postprocess.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/B-QGYVkzr-s_postprocess.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..da30e52c33bd1a527303ce1b29aca4cdbe1ef633
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/B-QGYVkzr-s_postprocess.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1664 @@
+1
+00:00:21,260 --> 00:00:25,140
+بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم in the last meeting we
+
+2
+00:00:25,140 --> 00:00:28,800
+talked about the active or passive managers or
+
+3
+00:00:28,800 --> 00:00:31,780
+managements the main difference between active and
+
+4
+00:00:31,780 --> 00:00:34,320
+passive regarding to what extent the market is
+
+5
+00:00:34,320 --> 00:00:37,360
+efficient يعني الفرق بين ال .. ال active و ال
+
+6
+00:00:37,360 --> 00:00:41,500
+passive لأي درجة ال .. ال market is efficient لأي
+
+7
+00:00:41,500 --> 00:00:46,540
+درجة السوق المالي كفوء طبعا فال .. ال active
+
+8
+00:00:46,540 --> 00:00:49,820
+managers think that the market is not efficient
+
+9
+00:00:51,080 --> 00:00:55,340
+however the passive managers think the market is
+
+10
+00:00:55,340 --> 00:01:02,960
+efficient يعني المضراءاللي بيعملوا دايما تغيير في
+
+11
+00:01:02,960 --> 00:01:06,900
+ال portfolios تبعتهم بيعتقدوا ال market ليس كافر
+
+12
+00:01:06,900 --> 00:01:11,740
+لكن ال .. ال .. ال managers المدرة .. المدرة اللي
+
+13
+00:01:11,740 --> 00:01:14,120
+هم ما بيغيروا بال portfolios تبعتهم و passive
+
+14
+00:01:14,120 --> 00:01:17,660
+بيكونوا سلبيين لتغيرات السوق بيعتقدوا ان ال market
+
+15
+00:01:17,660 --> 00:01:20,740
+is .. is efficient and we don't need to rebalance
+
+16
+00:01:20,740 --> 00:01:23,380
+our portfolios or to follow up the .. the
+
+17
+00:01:23,380 --> 00:01:26,380
+information وما بيزامش كتير ان احنا ن .. نتابع
+
+18
+00:01:26,380 --> 00:01:30,000
+المعلوماتmarket efficiency and portfolio
+
+19
+00:01:30,000 --> 00:01:34,300
+management let's consider the relationship between
+
+20
+00:01:34,300 --> 00:01:37,560
+the market efficiency and the portfolio management
+
+21
+00:01:37,560 --> 00:01:40,780
+حكينا portfolio management اللي هو إدارة المحفظة
+
+22
+00:01:40,780 --> 00:01:45,840
+يمكن مش واضحة عندكم what it means portfolio خلينا
+
+23
+00:01:45,840 --> 00:01:50,280
+نفترض فرضية بسيطة لو كان أنا معايا 1000$ ألف دولار
+
+24
+00:01:50,280 --> 00:01:54,860
+I have two options to invest all of them in one
+
+25
+00:01:54,860 --> 00:01:59,390
+stock or one securityإنه أنا أستثمرهم كلهم في one
+
+26
+00:01:59,390 --> 00:02:03,970
+security in one single stock يعني أستثمر كل ال one
+
+27
+00:02:03,970 --> 00:02:10,970
+thousand dollar في سهم واحد the problem of this is
+
+28
+00:02:10,970 --> 00:02:15,750
+not considering the importance of risk يعني لو
+
+29
+00:02:15,750 --> 00:02:24,380
+كانت a ارتفعت is fine but when a is going downthis
+
+30
+00:02:24,380 --> 00:02:28,420
+investor will lose his or her all money يعني ال
+
+31
+00:02:28,420 --> 00:02:33,930
+investor هيخسر كل فلوسهbut if we invest this is if
+
+32
+00:02:33,930 --> 00:02:37,590
+we invest in one single security إذا احنا بنستثمر
+
+33
+00:02:37,590 --> 00:02:41,490
+في سهم واحد but in the portfolio management لكن
+
+34
+00:02:41,490 --> 00:02:46,290
+المحافظة الاستثمارية build on the notion مبنية على
+
+35
+00:02:46,290 --> 00:02:51,190
+فكرة that don't put your eggs on one basket يعني
+
+36
+00:02:51,190 --> 00:02:54,650
+مانحطش البيض كله تبعنا في سلة واحدة so we can
+
+37
+00:02:54,650 --> 00:02:59,700
+invest on a portfoliothis portfolio includes C, B,
+
+38
+00:03:00,340 --> 00:03:07,440
+A, X, Y for instance if A is going down maybe X is
+
+39
+00:03:07,440 --> 00:03:12,540
+going up, C is going up, Y going up and maybe B is
+
+40
+00:03:12,540 --> 00:03:17,970
+going down so it means yes so it's likeis good for
+
+41
+00:03:17,970 --> 00:03:21,230
+managing the risk إذا كويسة بتكون في managing the
+
+42
+00:03:21,230 --> 00:03:24,050
+risk so this is the importance of the portfolio
+
+43
+00:03:24,050 --> 00:03:27,890
+the portfolio the main importance of the portfolio
+
+44
+00:03:27,890 --> 00:03:32,090
+is increase the interest rate increase the rate of
+
+45
+00:03:32,090 --> 00:03:34,950
+return and decrease the risk يعني الهدف في النهاية
+
+46
+00:03:34,950 --> 00:03:37,570
+تبع ال portfolio المحفظة أن أحنا نزيد العائد و
+
+47
+00:03:37,570 --> 00:03:41,970
+نقلل المخاطر and in the chapter five and six we
+
+48
+00:03:41,970 --> 00:03:45,060
+will see how we can manage thisفي chapter خمسة و
+
+49
+00:03:45,060 --> 00:03:48,280
+ستة هنشوف كيف أنه احنا هنعمل managing لل portfolio
+
+50
+00:03:48,280 --> 00:03:55,240
+okay so the thing is the link between the market
+
+51
+00:03:55,240 --> 00:03:58,880
+efficiency and portfolio management enable the
+
+52
+00:03:58,880 --> 00:04:03,880
+investor to diversify their securities بيقدروا
+
+53
+00:04:03,880 --> 00:04:07,620
+ينوعوا فاحنا في ال portfolios احنا في عندنا C في
+
+54
+00:04:07,620 --> 00:04:10,820
+عندنا D في عندنا A في عندنا X و عندنا Y لأنه ال
+
+55
+00:04:10,820 --> 00:04:14,020
+market is efficientand we know the rate of return
+
+56
+00:04:14,020 --> 00:04:17,340
+of C, we know the risk, we know the rate of return
+
+57
+00:04:17,340 --> 00:04:20,760
+of Y, we know the risk, we know everything so this
+
+58
+00:04:20,760 --> 00:04:25,660
+enable us to do diversification diversification it
+
+59
+00:04:25,660 --> 00:04:29,720
+means تنويع بنقدر احنا ننوىnot only the
+
+60
+00:04:29,720 --> 00:04:33,440
+diversification on the securities on the stocks مش
+
+61
+00:04:33,440 --> 00:04:36,420
+بس ان احنا بنقدر نعمل تنويع بال stocks بالأسهم
+
+62
+00:04:36,420 --> 00:04:41,420
+ممكن we can create another portfolio ممكن ان احنا
+
+63
+00:04:41,420 --> 00:04:46,380
+نعمل portfolio أخرى includes stocks for instance A
+
+64
+00:04:46,380 --> 00:04:51,540
+,B,R stocks we can include the treasury bills we
+
+65
+00:04:51,540 --> 00:04:56,840
+can include bondsيعني ممكن احنا كمان ننوع بأنواع
+
+66
+00:04:56,840 --> 00:04:59,520
+ال securities نعمل diversification نعمل تنويح حسب
+
+67
+00:04:59,520 --> 00:05:03,600
+نوع ال securities ممكن احنا نحط أسهم و نحط سندات و
+
+68
+00:05:03,600 --> 00:05:08,020
+نحط treasure bins و سندات خزينة we can also build
+
+69
+00:05:08,020 --> 00:05:10,880
+another portfolio based on the geographic areas
+
+70
+00:05:10,880 --> 00:05:17,060
+حسب التنويع الجغرافي for instance united states
+
+71
+00:05:17,060 --> 00:05:22,020
+stocks ممكن نحط أسهم بتاعي على ال united states UK
+
+72
+00:05:22,020 --> 00:05:28,360
+stocksAsian, Asians stock أسهم أساوية for instance
+
+73
+00:05:28,360 --> 00:05:33,620
+نحط مثلا من Tokyo، من Japan، من دبي، من قطر، the
+
+74
+00:05:33,620 --> 00:05:40,640
+king سعودي we can include other areas in our
+
+75
+00:05:40,640 --> 00:05:44,040
+portfolios ممكن احنا نوّعالمحفظة الاستثمارية ممكن
+
+76
+00:05:44,040 --> 00:05:46,280
+ناخد أسهم من الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية أسهم من
+
+77
+00:05:46,280 --> 00:05:50,460
+الأوروبا أسهم من ال UK أسهم من السعودية من دبي من
+
+78
+00:05:50,460 --> 00:05:55,240
+قطر من Tokyo من ماليزيا فهي بيسموها تنويع جيографي
+
+79
+00:05:55,240 --> 00:06:03,650
+okayهذه هي الهيبوتسيز التسريحية التي تساعدنا في
+
+80
+00:06:03,650 --> 00:06:09,010
+تدفع ميزاتنا باستخدام الأمن باستخدام المناطق
+
+81
+00:06:09,010 --> 00:06:13,510
+الجغرافية باستخدام رغبات الأمن على سبيل المثال
+
+82
+00:06:13,510 --> 00:06:20,650
+نستطيع إنشاء ميزاتنا باستخدام على سبيل المثال
+
+83
+00:06:20,650 --> 00:06:30,350
+أساتذة رخية و أساتذة خفيةيعني ممكن احنا نعمل
+
+84
+00:06:30,350 --> 00:06:34,170
+portfolio جزء منها assets فيها مخاطر و assets
+
+85
+00:06:34,170 --> 00:06:38,610
+مافيهاش فيها مخاطر okay فزي ما انتوا شايفين ال
+
+86
+00:06:38,610 --> 00:06:43,290
+investors are free to form up their portfolios ان
+
+87
+00:06:43,290 --> 00:06:47,990
+المستثمرين هم أحرار في يكونوا ال portfolios تبعتهم
+
+88
+00:06:47,990 --> 00:06:52,350
+ممكن يعملوا جغرافية تنمية جغرافية ممكن they can
+
+89
+00:06:52,350 --> 00:06:56,950
+also diversify their portfolios based on the
+
+90
+00:06:56,950 --> 00:07:01,080
+industrial levelممكن حسب ال industrial level ممكن
+
+91
+00:07:01,080 --> 00:07:05,480
+هم يستثمروا مثلا في ال agriculture في الزراعة ممكن
+
+92
+00:07:05,480 --> 00:07:11,900
+في ال tourist السياحة ممكن يستثمروا في ال industry
+
+93
+00:07:11,900 --> 00:07:16,640
+الصناعة ممكن في ال telecommunication okay so they
+
+94
+00:07:16,640 --> 00:07:19,980
+don't need to to channel their funds to a
+
+95
+00:07:19,980 --> 00:07:25,000
+particular industry يعني مابيحتاجوش انه فقط يروحوا
+
+96
+00:07:25,000 --> 00:07:28,490
+يستثمروا only in the telecommunicationbecause if
+
+97
+00:07:28,490 --> 00:07:31,690
+they invest in only the telecommunication it means
+
+98
+00:07:31,690 --> 00:07:34,590
+they only taking the risk of the telecommunication
+
+99
+00:07:34,590 --> 00:07:37,310
+and if the telecommunication is going down all of
+
+100
+00:07:37,310 --> 00:07:39,930
+their portfolios is going down so they need to
+
+101
+00:07:39,930 --> 00:07:42,830
+diversify their portfolios based on the industrial
+
+102
+00:07:42,830 --> 00:07:46,830
+level فعشان هيك هم محتاجين كمان يعملوا تنويع في
+
+103
+00:07:46,830 --> 00:07:49,610
+المحفظة حسب ال industrial level يعني بيستثمروا في
+
+104
+00:07:49,610 --> 00:07:52,800
+العقارات في ال real estatesممكن يستثمروا في ال
+
+105
+00:07:52,800 --> 00:07:55,800
+currencies، في العملات، ممكن يستثمروا في السياحة،
+
+106
+00:07:55,800 --> 00:07:58,560
+يستثمروا في الصناعة، في ال telecommunication، في
+
+107
+00:07:58,560 --> 00:08:01,640
+.. في كل هذه يكونوا محافظ استثماريين، فإذا كانت ال
+
+108
+00:08:01,640 --> 00:08:04,720
+telecommunication is going down ممكن يكون في other
+
+109
+00:08:04,720 --> 00:08:09,520
+areas is going up، يعني areas أخرى بتطلع .. تطلع،
+
+110
+00:08:09,520 --> 00:08:13,080
+فهذه بدأت أخد بعين الأعتبار، إذا هذه some .. some
+
+111
+00:08:13,080 --> 00:08:17,850
+examples on how investorsforming up their
+
+112
+00:08:17,850 --> 00:08:21,370
+portfolios كيف هم بيكونوا المحافظة الاستثمارية
+
+113
+00:08:21,370 --> 00:08:27,610
+بناء على شو هم بدهمOkay ف the efficient markets
+
+114
+00:08:27,610 --> 00:08:32,390
+helping them to forming a good diversified
+
+115
+00:08:32,390 --> 00:08:36,730
+portfolio لتساعدهم بأنهم يحصلوا على تنويع ممتاز من
+
+116
+00:08:36,730 --> 00:08:39,670
+المحافظة الاستثمارية and as I said the main
+
+117
+00:08:39,670 --> 00:08:43,310
+objective of doing this is to reduce the risk يعني
+
+118
+00:08:43,310 --> 00:08:47,330
+الهدف أنه احنا نخفض المخاطر اللي بتتحملها ال
+
+119
+00:08:47,330 --> 00:08:53,370
+investorsThe second most important thing is
+
+120
+00:08:53,370 --> 00:08:57,990
+appropriate risk level if we look at the
+
+121
+00:08:57,990 --> 00:09:03,890
+portfolios the investors they try to assign which
+
+122
+00:09:03,890 --> 00:09:08,490
+risk they can apply
+
+123
+00:09:08,490 --> 00:09:12,190
+يعني بيقدروا من خلال ال portfolio يقولوا احنا بدنا
+
+124
+00:09:12,190 --> 00:09:16,680
+مخاطرX فبيقدروا يعملوا ال portfolios تبعتهم
+
+125
+00:09:16,680 --> 00:09:21,080
+according to the X risk يعني بتوفر لهم ال
+
+126
+00:09:21,080 --> 00:09:24,740
+portfolio management انه بالظبط يقدروا يكونوا
+
+127
+00:09:24,740 --> 00:09:32,140
+محافظ استثمارية with unknown risk يعني بيقدروا
+
+128
+00:09:32,140 --> 00:09:36,240
+يعملوا محافظ استثمارية معروفة المخاطرOkay فالأسواق
+
+129
+00:09:36,240 --> 00:09:39,600
+المالية بتساعدهم على الكلام هذا and they use
+
+130
+00:09:39,600 --> 00:09:42,060
+advanced calculations بيستخدموا ال advanced
+
+131
+00:09:42,060 --> 00:09:47,080
+calculations to do this يعني رياضيات متقدمة عشان
+
+132
+00:09:47,080 --> 00:09:50,220
+يحصلوا على ال appropriate risk يعني مثلا خليني
+
+133
+00:09:50,220 --> 00:09:56,160
+أعطيكم مثال لو أجاني investors شوفوا كيف مثلا
+
+134
+00:09:56,160 --> 00:10:03,650
+خليني .. لو أجاني أنا channelinvestors from
+
+135
+00:10:03,650 --> 00:10:09,830
+different origins يعني مستثمرين من من مختلف ال
+
+136
+00:10:09,830 --> 00:10:16,630
+origins المصادر okay مثلا عندنا I one investor one
+
+137
+00:10:16,630 --> 00:10:22,990
+I two investor two I three I four I five till I
+
+138
+00:10:22,990 --> 00:10:31,450
+end for instance I one is old old manلو كان ال I
+
+139
+00:10:31,450 --> 00:10:35,630
+one investor number one is old man رجل كبير and I
+
+140
+00:10:35,630 --> 00:10:42,770
+two is old lady I five for instance is young with
+
+141
+00:10:42,770 --> 00:10:48,070
+a secure job okay
+
+142
+00:10:48,070 --> 00:10:56,890
+and I four is young ladywith a secure job as well
+
+143
+00:10:56,890 --> 00:11:00,690
+so let's see how we can reflect appropriate level
+
+144
+00:11:00,690 --> 00:11:03,270
+of risk according to the characteristics of the
+
+145
+00:11:03,270 --> 00:11:06,310
+investors يعني خليني أشوف كيف احنا ممكن نعمل محفظة
+
+146
+00:11:06,310 --> 00:11:13,170
+استثمارية حسب المخاطر بتاعة ال investors okay طيب
+
+147
+00:11:13,170 --> 00:11:15,330
+هلأ لو نيجي احنا نيجي handle ال old men and old
+
+148
+00:11:15,330 --> 00:11:19,750
+ladies هدول بتحمل المخاطر؟شو رأيكم؟ زلمة كبيرة و
+
+149
+00:11:19,750 --> 00:11:22,390
+ستة كبيرة يعني retired people يعني خلينا نحكي هنا
+
+150
+00:11:22,390 --> 00:11:28,690
+number .. I3 retired lady يعني ستة تقاعدت يعني
+
+151
+00:11:28,690 --> 00:11:33,810
+كانت تشتغل و صار عندها تقاعد شو رأيكم؟ال old man و
+
+152
+00:11:33,810 --> 00:11:38,150
+ال old lady و ال retired lady هدول بتحملوش مخاطر
+
+153
+00:11:38,150 --> 00:11:42,210
+فإحنا إيش بنعملهم محفظة ناخدهم هدول مع بعض و
+
+154
+00:11:42,210 --> 00:11:46,130
+بنعملهم محفظة with lower risk بنعملهم محفظ
+
+155
+00:11:46,130 --> 00:11:49,670
+استثماري with lower risk طب إيش بنستثمرهم؟ إيش ال
+
+156
+00:11:49,670 --> 00:11:53,420
+investment اللي فيه lower risk؟ال treasury bills،
+
+157
+00:11:53,420 --> 00:11:56,440
+مظبوط، فيه lower risk، إيش فيه كمان؟ ال bonds،
+
+158
+00:11:56,440 --> 00:12:01,880
+فيها lower risk، إيش كمان؟ عقد ثابت، إيش رأيكم؟ ال
+
+159
+00:12:01,880 --> 00:12:04,420
+derivatives، نحطولهم في ال derivatives؟ نستثمرهم
+
+160
+00:12:04,420 --> 00:12:07,880
+في ال derivatives؟ no, لأن ال derivatives ..high
+
+161
+00:12:07,880 --> 00:12:12,580
+risk طيب وش كمان ممكن نعطيهم real estate عقارات
+
+162
+00:12:12,580 --> 00:12:15,500
+استثمروا بالعقارات so this is the thing so we
+
+163
+00:12:15,500 --> 00:12:19,000
+forming up this portfolio by using for instance
+
+164
+00:12:19,000 --> 00:12:21,980
+treasury bills which is risk free maybe treasury
+
+165
+00:12:21,980 --> 00:12:28,160
+bonds and real estate this is the example okay
+
+166
+00:12:28,160 --> 00:12:33,600
+let's consider the I4 and I5 I5 young man and
+
+167
+00:12:33,600 --> 00:12:39,480
+young lady with a secure jobصغار و عندهم شغلهم
+
+168
+00:12:39,480 --> 00:12:43,400
+okay so they can bear more risk so they can bear
+
+169
+00:12:43,400 --> 00:12:46,280
+more risk يعني ممكن يتحملوا or they hold they may
+
+170
+00:12:46,280 --> 00:12:50,540
+hold more risk فممكن يتحملوا مخاطر أعلى so وين
+
+171
+00:12:50,540 --> 00:12:53,240
+ممكن يستثمروا ممكن في ال stocks يستثمروا بال
+
+172
+00:12:53,240 --> 00:12:57,240
+stocks ممكن بال currencies ممكن يستثمروا ممكن في
+
+173
+00:12:57,240 --> 00:13:02,800
+ال derivatives okay that's it يعني شفنا احنا how
+
+174
+00:13:02,800 --> 00:13:09,000
+we reflect thisإذن حسب the characteristics of the
+
+175
+00:13:09,000 --> 00:13:14,240
+investors so we can forming up the appropriate
+
+176
+00:13:14,240 --> 00:13:18,040
+portfolio with appropriate risk يعني ممكن إحنا
+
+177
+00:13:18,040 --> 00:13:22,500
+ننشأ محافظة استثمارية حسب ال investors اللي سبعونا
+
+178
+00:13:22,500 --> 00:13:27,560
+وحسب المخاطر اللي هم ممكن يتحملوها okay so this is
+
+179
+00:13:27,560 --> 00:13:32,660
+the appropriate risk level the last one is tax
+
+180
+00:13:32,660 --> 00:13:36,890
+considerationstax tax consideration okay let's
+
+181
+00:13:36,890 --> 00:13:39,370
+focus on the importance of tax considerations
+
+182
+00:13:39,370 --> 00:13:44,950
+خلّيني أركز على ال tax considerations يعني
+
+183
+00:13:44,950 --> 00:13:54,930
+الاعتبارات الضريبية طيب
+
+184
+00:13:54,930 --> 00:14:03,980
+خلّيني أخد مثال احنا عندنا stock Astock A بيوزع
+
+185
+00:14:03,980 --> 00:14:13,360
+dividends، ال stock A نفسه ممكن
+
+186
+00:14:13,360 --> 00:14:19,040
+ما يدفع dividends، no dividends، نشوف what is the
+
+187
+00:14:19,040 --> 00:14:21,860
+difference when the stock A paying dividends and
+
+188
+00:14:21,860 --> 00:14:24,840
+when the stock A paying no dividends يعني إيش
+
+189
+00:14:24,840 --> 00:14:28,560
+الفرق بإنه الشركة تدفع أرباح .. تدفع توزيعات أرباح
+
+190
+00:14:28,560 --> 00:14:33,140
+و ما تدفعش؟the dividends when the investors
+
+191
+00:14:33,140 --> 00:14:37,600
+receiving the dividends they have to pay tax لازم
+
+192
+00:14:37,600 --> 00:14:45,700
+يدفعوا دريبة and this tax is maybe 25% هبتصل this
+
+193
+00:14:45,700 --> 00:14:50,280
+tax in the united states this the tax income is up
+
+194
+00:14:50,280 --> 00:14:54,520
+to 25% and in the UK as wellيعني في الولايات
+
+195
+00:14:54,520 --> 00:14:59,600
+المتحدة الأمريكية و ال .. و ال .. و ال UK بتصل ل
+
+196
+00:14:59,600 --> 00:15:05,480
+25% فاللي مثلا لو احنا we receive 10$ as a
+
+197
+00:15:05,480 --> 00:15:11,540
+dividends we have to pay 2.5$ as a tax okay this
+
+198
+00:15:11,540 --> 00:15:16,760
+is the .. this is the problem in the opposite if a
+
+199
+00:15:16,760 --> 00:15:24,000
+being no dividends it means there is no taxطيب
+
+200
+00:15:24,000 --> 00:15:26,660
+what is the alternative of not paying the
+
+201
+00:15:26,660 --> 00:15:31,840
+dividends؟ شو البديل أنه احنا ماددفعش نوزعش أرباح؟
+
+202
+00:15:31,840 --> 00:15:36,400
+فضل ازاي
+
+203
+00:15:36,400 --> 00:15:41,860
+صح كلامك بس ازاي انا احكي لك لما احنا ماددفعش
+
+204
+00:15:41,860 --> 00:15:45,840
+الأرباح انا محتجزة بيصير في 110 earnings أرباح
+
+205
+00:15:45,840 --> 00:15:50,200
+محتجزة اه بتكون قصود احنا الأصل هو عبارة عن قيمة
+
+206
+00:15:50,200 --> 00:15:57,970
+الفرق من القصود او قيمتهبصير ايش؟بتزيد المكية
+
+207
+00:15:57,970 --> 00:16:02,470
+بتزيد حصته بس هذا from the financial perspective
+
+208
+00:16:02,470 --> 00:16:05,770
+this is from the corporate finance perspective هذا
+
+209
+00:16:05,770 --> 00:16:08,970
+من غير نظر corporate finance but from the
+
+210
+00:16:08,970 --> 00:16:12,430
+financial market perspective you are right but
+
+211
+00:16:12,430 --> 00:16:14,990
+from the financial market perspective let's see
+
+212
+00:16:14,990 --> 00:16:19,050
+what is going خلينا نشوف ال A بتدفع dividends فهم
+
+213
+00:16:19,050 --> 00:16:22,170
+بدفعوا taxation فال investors اللي بتثمروا في A و
+
+214
+00:16:22,170 --> 00:16:28,010
+اللي بتدفع dividendsفهيدفعوا 25% taxation if a
+
+215
+00:16:28,010 --> 00:16:31,310
+decided not paying any dividends إذا هم قرروا
+
+216
+00:16:31,310 --> 00:16:34,550
+مايدفعوش dividends خلينا نشوف لو أنتوا شفتوا ال
+
+217
+00:16:34,550 --> 00:16:40,550
+assets و ال liabilities مظبوط؟فلما أنا ب .. بعمل
+
+218
+00:16:40,550 --> 00:16:46,310
+no dividends فبعمل احتجاز للأرباح فبتروحها تحت ال
+
+219
+00:16:46,310 --> 00:16:49,730
+capital as she said تحت ال capital بيصير في return
+
+220
+00:16:49,730 --> 00:16:53,910
+earnings طيب let's ask you a question return
+
+221
+00:16:53,910 --> 00:16:57,250
+earnings what is the importance of return earnings
+
+222
+00:16:57,250 --> 00:17:00,890
+خلينا سؤال finance إيش أهمية ال return earnings
+
+223
+00:17:00,890 --> 00:17:05,370
+ليش .. ليش الشركات بتعمل investment is for
+
+224
+00:17:05,370 --> 00:17:10,800
+expansionexpansion يعني توسع صح ولا لأOkay فالان
+
+225
+00:17:10,800 --> 00:17:16,120
+لما الشركات بتروح بتعمل keeping the profit it
+
+226
+00:17:16,120 --> 00:17:19,820
+means return earnings it means in the future they
+
+227
+00:17:19,820 --> 00:17:22,440
+may invest this money في المستقبل هم هيتستثمروا
+
+228
+00:17:22,440 --> 00:17:28,420
+الأموال because they keep this the price of the
+
+229
+00:17:28,420 --> 00:17:32,380
+stocks is going up لما الشركات تحتجز الأرباح
+
+230
+00:17:32,380 --> 00:17:36,060
+فالمستثمرين مقتنعين ان هاي الشركات لما تحتجز
+
+231
+00:17:36,060 --> 00:17:38,520
+الأرباح هتعمل expansion ايش يعني expansion يعني
+
+232
+00:17:38,520 --> 00:17:42,830
+توسعطب لأنه بده تعمل expansion فبصير ال investors
+
+233
+00:17:42,830 --> 00:17:46,990
+معنيين بالشركة هذه بتعرفوا أن الشركة هذه مثلا نيجي
+
+234
+00:17:46,990 --> 00:17:50,910
+بالتل عاملة تحتجز أرباح و بتفكر أنه تروح تعمل مثلا
+
+235
+00:17:50,910 --> 00:17:55,390
+a new investment فإيش اللي بيصير على ال price إيش
+
+236
+00:17:55,390 --> 00:17:58,490
+ال price السعر؟ شو بيصير فيه؟ going up بصير ارتفاع
+
+237
+00:17:58,490 --> 00:18:05,070
+طيب خليني عشان انا بتواصلكم فكرة معينة هلأ instead
+
+238
+00:18:05,070 --> 00:18:09,640
+of paying dividends بدل ما احنا ندفع dividendswe
+
+239
+00:18:09,640 --> 00:18:14,980
+are keeping the profits مظبوط keeping the profits
+
+240
+00:18:14,980 --> 00:18:20,740
+اللي هو بانجو سان نسميها returned earnings اللي هو
+
+241
+00:18:20,740 --> 00:18:26,020
+احتجاز أربعة طيب هلأ حكينا 25% اللي ندفعه على ال
+
+242
+00:18:26,020 --> 00:18:29,220
+dividend tax لما نعمل keeping the profits مع
+
+243
+00:18:29,220 --> 00:18:34,340
+الكلام we do expansion نعمل expansion توسع
+
+244
+00:18:36,580 --> 00:18:43,140
+لما يعمل توسع ال investors think that the income
+
+245
+00:18:43,140 --> 00:18:46,720
+will increase لما ال investors بيعرفوا أن الشركة
+
+246
+00:18:46,720 --> 00:18:50,460
+هي هتعمل توسع الأربعة هتزيد صح ولا لأ؟because they
+
+247
+00:18:50,460 --> 00:18:53,620
+think the income increase the price will going up
+
+248
+00:18:53,620 --> 00:18:58,500
+السعر هيرتفع okay what this means from the
+
+249
+00:18:58,500 --> 00:19:01,300
+financial market perspective هذا إيش معنى الكلام
+
+250
+00:19:01,300 --> 00:19:04,300
+من وجهة نظر ال financial perspective ال financial
+
+251
+00:19:04,300 --> 00:19:09,700
+perspective saying thatit means R the return on a
+
+252
+00:19:09,700 --> 00:19:13,900
+particular asset R of A this is from mathematical
+
+253
+00:19:13,900 --> 00:19:16,740
+perspective من وجهة نظر المحاسبية financial
+
+254
+00:19:16,740 --> 00:19:19,780
+mathematical perspective من وجهة نظر الأمالية
+
+255
+00:19:19,780 --> 00:19:23,220
+المحاسبية RA اللي هو السهم A اللي احنا حكينا فيه
+
+256
+00:19:23,220 --> 00:19:33,080
+بساوي D one D plus B one minus B not what it means
+
+257
+00:19:33,080 --> 00:19:41,760
+العائد بتاع RAهيساوي ال dividends على زائد pay one
+
+258
+00:19:41,760 --> 00:19:45,960
+سعر البيع ناقص سعر الشراقة معنى الكلام أنه احنا
+
+259
+00:19:45,960 --> 00:19:50,540
+العائد تبع السهم بنحصله من مكانين من ال dividends
+
+260
+00:19:50,540 --> 00:19:56,520
+و من ال capital gains هذا بيسموها capital gains
+
+261
+00:19:56,520 --> 00:20:02,320
+ليش سميناها capital gains لأنه احنا اشترينا السهم
+
+262
+00:20:02,320 --> 00:20:06,480
+على سعرو لما صار في keeping the profit هنبيعه على
+
+263
+00:20:06,480 --> 00:20:12,020
+سعر أعلى okay طب لنفترض احنا هنا حكينا ال tax high
+
+264
+00:20:12,020 --> 00:20:15,840
+ال tax في حالة ال dividends is greater than the
+
+265
+00:20:15,840 --> 00:20:18,960
+capital gains ال tax في حالة ال dividends is
+
+266
+00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:22,100
+greater than the capital gains الحكومة الأمريكية و
+
+267
+00:20:22,100 --> 00:20:26,220
+البريطانية و حتى اللي عندنا و ال local governments
+
+268
+00:20:26,220 --> 00:20:30,800
+و الحكومات المحلية عندنا بتفرض ضرائب أعلى على ال
+
+269
+00:20:30,800 --> 00:20:36,040
+dividendsفبصير إنه الاهتمام بال capital gains أكتر
+
+270
+00:20:36,040 --> 00:20:42,120
+من اهتمام بال dividends okay so the thing is some
+
+271
+00:20:42,120 --> 00:20:48,020
+investors they prefer to take dividends but the
+
+272
+00:20:48,020 --> 00:20:54,520
+problem is paying more tax بعض المستثمرينبيفضلوا
+
+273
+00:20:54,520 --> 00:20:57,660
+ال dividends لكن المشكلة إيش في ال dividends تدفع
+
+274
+00:20:57,660 --> 00:21:01,780
+دريبة عالية they have to do this يعني نرجع لمثالنا
+
+275
+00:21:01,780 --> 00:21:06,740
+إذا كانت راجل كبير و ست كبيرة بفضلوش ال capital
+
+276
+00:21:06,740 --> 00:21:10,360
+gains بفضلوش إن الشركات تروح تترسم للأربعة واحدة
+
+277
+00:21:10,360 --> 00:21:15,120
+بعدها بفضلوا كل شهرين تلاتة يجي لهم dividends لكن
+
+278
+00:21:15,120 --> 00:21:19,860
+المشكلة هذه they have to pay high tax لكن بواجهوا
+
+279
+00:21:19,860 --> 00:21:21,560
+مشكلة إنه بدفعوا high tax
+
+280
+00:21:24,390 --> 00:21:28,350
+people they prefer the capital gains they don't
+
+281
+00:21:28,350 --> 00:21:33,850
+consider the risk ماباهتموش بالضريبة they want to
+
+282
+00:21:33,850 --> 00:21:37,750
+avoid the high tax الناس اللي بيفضلوا الأرباح
+
+283
+00:21:37,750 --> 00:21:42,870
+المحتجزة طبعا في الحالة هذه هيتجنبوا دفع درائب
+
+284
+00:21:42,870 --> 00:21:48,920
+عالية فاحنا أمام two synergiesthe tax on the
+
+285
+00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:52,960
+dividends is higher than the capital gains الأرباح
+
+286
+00:21:52,960 --> 00:21:56,540
+الرقسمالية so some investors prefer the dividends
+
+287
+00:21:56,540 --> 00:22:02,340
+however it pay high tax other investors prefer the
+
+288
+00:22:02,340 --> 00:22:07,920
+.. the capital gains and paying no tax طب التنين
+
+289
+00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:11,360
+بيه مشكلة على فكرة التنين إيه إيش بيه مشكلة مشكلة
+
+290
+00:22:11,360 --> 00:22:14,320
+هذا معروفة أنه بي .. أنه الدرائب طب مشكلة هذا وين؟
+
+291
+00:22:16,580 --> 00:22:20,860
+time yes right the time ايش risk لأنه there is no
+
+292
+00:22:20,860 --> 00:22:24,320
+guarantee the price will go up فش ضمان الأسعار
+
+293
+00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:28,120
+ترتفع لفوق صحيح they are keeping the profits is
+
+294
+00:22:28,120 --> 00:22:31,180
+right they are keeping the profits but it is not
+
+295
+00:22:31,180 --> 00:22:35,300
+right the prices will go up يعني زي مثلا مثال
+
+296
+00:22:35,300 --> 00:22:38,800
+بنقول الحج والحجة اللي هو old man old man old lady
+
+297
+00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:43,880
+they consider one bird in your hand is more
+
+298
+00:22:43,880 --> 00:22:47,640
+preferable than ten birds on the treeيعني عصفور
+
+299
+00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:51,120
+بيدك أحسن من عشر ع الشجرة ده ال thing in this way
+
+300
+00:22:51,120 --> 00:22:55,420
+بقى young people الناس الصغار في السن اللي زيكو
+
+301
+00:22:55,420 --> 00:23:00,240
+طبعا they have difference بيقول لأ why I don't
+
+302
+00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:03,240
+need money for instance now so خلي العشر ع الشجرة
+
+303
+00:23:03,240 --> 00:23:07,640
+أحسن ما يكونوا في one bird in my hand because ten
+
+304
+00:23:07,640 --> 00:23:11,900
+trees .. ten birds on the tree إيش بيصير? ten
+
+305
+00:23:11,900 --> 00:23:17,650
+birds on the trees may call otherbears to be in
+
+306
+00:23:17,650 --> 00:23:21,410
+the tree but if the bird is in your hands, no
+
+307
+00:23:21,410 --> 00:23:25,130
+additional birds will be in your hands يعني لما
+
+308
+00:23:25,130 --> 00:23:28,950
+تخلوا العشر على الشجرة, they calling more birds
+
+309
+00:23:28,950 --> 00:23:32,710
+هيستدعوا طيور أكتر تيجي على الشجرة لكن لما يكون
+
+310
+00:23:32,710 --> 00:23:37,610
+الطير بيدك في حد هييجي و that's it يعني
+
+311
+00:23:40,050 --> 00:23:44,630
+الفكرة هان أنه ال capital gains is higher risk
+
+312
+00:23:44,630 --> 00:23:47,810
+than the dividends, the dividends is guaranteed,
+
+313
+00:23:48,130 --> 00:23:50,190
+there is a dividends, but the problem in the
+
+314
+00:23:50,190 --> 00:23:54,890
+dividends, there is high tax okay, so the
+
+315
+00:23:54,890 --> 00:23:57,590
+portfolios, the portfolio management is helping us
+
+316
+00:23:57,590 --> 00:24:00,790
+to state whether we prefer the tax or we avoid the
+
+317
+00:24:00,790 --> 00:24:04,990
+tax, some people or some investors are between the
+
+318
+00:24:04,990 --> 00:24:08,620
+two scenariosبعض الناس بال two scenarios ممكن
+
+319
+00:24:08,620 --> 00:24:12,080
+بياخدوا ال portfolios تبعتهم stocks بتعمل
+
+320
+00:24:12,080 --> 00:24:16,120
+dividends و stocks no dividends يعني بياخدوا أسهم
+
+321
+00:24:16,120 --> 00:24:19,280
+بتعمل dividends و أسهم مابتعملش dividends هدول
+
+322
+00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:28,900
+بيكونوا أيش يعني متوسط المخاطر تمام؟ okayيعني لو
+
+323
+00:24:28,900 --> 00:24:34,600
+احنا قررنا مثلا ladies بال in her 35 to 40 ست كانت
+
+324
+00:24:34,600 --> 00:24:40,120
+من 35 لل40 مع راجل من 35 لل40 طبعا ال ladies عادة
+
+325
+00:24:40,120 --> 00:24:44,920
+بيكونوا تحملوا المخاطر أقل فهم ممكن يختاروا
+
+326
+00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:49,360
+dividends مع capital gains ال mens تحملهم للمخاطر
+
+327
+00:24:49,360 --> 00:24:53,260
+أعلى شوية فممكن ان هم to go to the capital gains
+
+328
+00:24:53,260 --> 00:24:55,720
+انه يروحوا لل capital gains more than the
+
+329
+00:24:55,720 --> 00:25:01,350
+dividends okayهذا المثال ممكن احنا نعطيه طبعا هذا
+
+330
+00:25:01,350 --> 00:25:04,690
+لا يعني ان ال ladies they took whole dress لأ في
+
+331
+00:25:04,690 --> 00:25:08,610
+ناس ممكن يتحمل بس احنا بنحكي in majority in the
+
+332
+00:25:08,610 --> 00:25:15,010
+majority اه بال majority يعني ان هم جداش بتحمله
+
+333
+00:25:15,010 --> 00:25:19,290
+المخاطر ممكن رجال كمان conservative كونوا طبعا
+
+334
+00:25:19,290 --> 00:25:22,610
+احنا بنحكي بشكل عام ايش بيصير بالاسواق المالية
+
+335
+00:25:22,610 --> 00:25:23,470
+okay
+
+336
+00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:36,020
+طيب أي سؤال any question about the free
+
+337
+00:25:36,020 --> 00:25:39,200
+diversification appropriate risk level, tax
+
+338
+00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:45,200
+considerations؟ no questions؟ أه؟ في حد عنده سؤال؟
+
+339
+00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:51,260
+okay طيب resource allocations توزيع الموارد أو
+
+340
+00:25:51,260 --> 00:25:52,780
+تخصيص الموارد
+
+341
+00:25:59,910 --> 00:26:02,270
+طيب ال market .. we still talking about the
+
+342
+00:26:02,270 --> 00:26:05,010
+implications of market efficiency احنا مازالنا
+
+343
+00:26:05,010 --> 00:26:08,230
+بنحكي عن أثر ال market efficiency on portfolio
+
+344
+00:26:08,230 --> 00:26:12,450
+management على إدارة المحافظة الاستثمارية if you
+
+345
+00:26:12,450 --> 00:26:16,490
+think the market is inefficient we cannot
+
+346
+00:26:16,490 --> 00:26:20,290
+efficiently allocate our resources يعني إذا احنا
+
+347
+00:26:20,290 --> 00:26:24,530
+بنعتقد إن السوق غير كفوء بيكون احنا من الصعوبة إن
+
+348
+00:26:24,530 --> 00:26:29,200
+احنا نعمل تخصيص الموارد تبعتناbecause the market
+
+349
+00:26:29,200 --> 00:26:33,420
+is inefficient فبصير في miss pricing فبتكون الأسهم
+
+350
+00:26:33,420 --> 00:26:36,540
+الغالية هتكون رخيصة و الأسهم الرخيصة هتكون غالية
+
+351
+00:26:36,540 --> 00:26:41,260
+that's it يعني if the market is inefficient okay
+
+352
+00:26:42,550 --> 00:26:45,790
+فإذا كان السوق المالي كفو يعني لو أجينا احنا مثلا
+
+353
+00:26:45,790 --> 00:26:48,870
+على ال mobile إذا كان السوق المالي كفو هذا سعره
+
+354
+00:26:48,870 --> 00:26:51,610
+مثلا مائة دولار so the price is مائة دولار one
+
+355
+00:26:51,610 --> 00:26:55,430
+hundred dollar if the market is inefficient this
+
+356
+00:26:55,430 --> 00:26:59,610
+could be overpriced or could be underpriced ممكن
+
+357
+00:26:59,610 --> 00:27:02,570
+يكون أقل من سعره ممكن يكون أعلى من سعره يعني if
+
+358
+00:27:02,570 --> 00:27:04,730
+this one hundred dollar it could be one hundred
+
+359
+00:27:04,730 --> 00:27:07,510
+fifty if the market is inefficient and in this
+
+360
+00:27:07,510 --> 00:27:12,790
+case it is overpricedif it is fifty dollar it
+
+361
+00:27:12,790 --> 00:27:18,470
+means it is under priced and this is misleading if
+
+362
+00:27:18,470 --> 00:27:21,170
+the market is inefficient buying and selling these
+
+363
+00:27:21,170 --> 00:27:25,510
+mobile phones is misleading يعني ممكن تعمل
+
+364
+00:27:25,510 --> 00:27:31,310
+misleading يعني إيش misleading إنه مايستطيعوش
+
+365
+00:27:31,310 --> 00:27:34,310
+ال investors to take the right decision okay
+
+366
+00:27:39,170 --> 00:27:42,450
+ف the implications of .. if markets were
+
+367
+00:27:42,450 --> 00:27:47,250
+inefficient إذا كان الأسواق ليست كفؤة resources
+
+368
+00:27:47,250 --> 00:27:51,810
+would be systematically misallocated هنروح نعمل
+
+369
+00:27:51,810 --> 00:27:54,670
+misallocation لل .. نروح .. نروح نستثمر في أشياء
+
+370
+00:27:54,670 --> 00:27:57,350
+غالية هي المفروض تكون رخيصة و أشياء رخيصة المفروض
+
+371
+00:27:57,350 --> 00:28:01,230
+تكون غالية so this is the things misallocation or
+
+372
+00:28:01,230 --> 00:28:05,010
+misleading as .. as I explained fame with
+
+373
+00:28:05,010 --> 00:28:07,310
+overvalued securities can raise capital too
+
+374
+00:28:07,310 --> 00:28:13,780
+cheaplyيعني الشركات اللي أسعارها مغالا فيها ممكن
+
+375
+00:28:13,780 --> 00:28:20,560
+تحصل على تمويل رخيص و العكس شركات undervalued أقل
+
+376
+00:28:20,560 --> 00:28:25,280
+من قيمتها الحقيقية may have to pass up profitable
+
+377
+00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:27,700
+opportunities because cost of capital is too high
+
+378
+00:28:27,700 --> 00:28:30,980
+ممكن أنه ماتحصلش على تمويل لأنه ال cost of capital
+
+379
+00:28:30,980 --> 00:28:37,260
+تكليف رأس المال بتكون عالية جدا okay so this is
+
+380
+00:28:37,260 --> 00:28:41,630
+importantف resource allocation if the market is
+
+381
+00:28:41,630 --> 00:28:44,730
+efficient we can effectively allocate our
+
+382
+00:28:44,730 --> 00:28:49,170
+resources but the problem efficient market does
+
+383
+00:28:49,170 --> 00:28:53,230
+not mean perfect for sides markets مابتانش كل شي
+
+384
+00:28:53,230 --> 00:28:57,170
+تمام 100% اعطيكوا مثال يعني لا يعني انه if the
+
+385
+00:28:57,170 --> 00:29:01,150
+market is efficient it means we have a proper
+
+386
+00:29:01,150 --> 00:29:05,970
+asset allocation ده يعني انه السوق المالي كافه انه
+
+387
+00:29:05,970 --> 00:29:11,150
+في عندنا توزيع صحfor instance لو أنا جبتلكم car
+
+388
+00:29:11,150 --> 00:29:18,430
+2013 and we have two people سيارة 2013 efficient
+
+389
+00:29:18,430 --> 00:29:22,250
+خدنا نقول مثلا لموزين و جينا ال two people we have
+
+390
+00:29:22,250 --> 00:29:26,150
+a good driver and we have a bad driver and we said
+
+391
+00:29:26,150 --> 00:29:30,190
+to the bad driver take the keys and try it يعني
+
+392
+00:29:30,190 --> 00:29:33,290
+خدها المفاتيح و روح جربها maybe after one minute
+
+393
+00:29:33,290 --> 00:29:37,850
+come back with a smashed carممكن بعد دقيقة يرجعلنا
+
+394
+00:29:37,850 --> 00:29:42,790
+و السيارة مكسرة and we may talk to the second
+
+395
+00:29:42,790 --> 00:29:45,750
+driver which is an excellent driver with a good
+
+396
+00:29:45,750 --> 00:29:50,170
+profile he can use it and get it back with
+
+397
+00:29:50,170 --> 00:29:54,260
+excellent conditionلذا لدينا اتفاقين اثنين،
+
+398
+00:29:54,260 --> 00:29:59,760
+المشكلة في الناس و كيف يستخدموا المصادر، السيارة
+
+399
+00:29:59,760 --> 00:30:04,060
+مفيدة، كل شيء بخير، لكن المشكلة في الناس و كيف
+
+400
+00:30:04,060 --> 00:30:09,190
+يستخدموا المصادرyou have good experience with a
+
+401
+00:30:09,190 --> 00:30:11,310
+good knowledge with the .. with the .. with a good
+
+402
+00:30:11,310 --> 00:30:14,650
+profile you can efficiently and effectively manage
+
+403
+00:30:14,650 --> 00:30:18,530
+the portfolios if you don't have this knowledge it
+
+404
+00:30:18,530 --> 00:30:22,990
+means you cannot do this هذه المشكلة efficient
+
+405
+00:30:22,990 --> 00:30:25,450
+market does not mean perfect foresight markets
+
+406
+00:30:25,450 --> 00:30:28,210
+because it depends on how people foresight how
+
+407
+00:30:28,210 --> 00:30:32,050
+they understand the portfolios يعني لو احنا جيبنا
+
+408
+00:30:32,050 --> 00:30:36,190
+ال laptop هذا و حكينا للناس خدوا صمموه لشغلات على
+
+409
+00:30:36,190 --> 00:30:41,340
+ال laptopممكن ناس بعرفوه و ناس مابيعرفوش so it
+
+410
+00:30:41,340 --> 00:30:43,540
+depends يعني ما تفكروا ان والله احنا خدنا
+
+411
+00:30:43,540 --> 00:30:46,620
+portfolio management و investments و we can do
+
+412
+00:30:46,620 --> 00:30:51,440
+this so you should have skills to do the .. the
+
+413
+00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:57,020
+management .. the portfolio management okay نحكي
+
+414
+00:30:57,020 --> 00:31:02,410
+عن event studiesاللقاء الجاى بيكون نقف عند ال
+
+415
+00:31:02,410 --> 00:31:07,070
+event studies اللقاء الجاى is the last meeting
+
+416
+00:31:07,070 --> 00:31:11,770
+talking about the chapter four
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/B-QGYVkzr-s_raw.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/B-QGYVkzr-s_raw.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..da30e52c33bd1a527303ce1b29aca4cdbe1ef633
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/B-QGYVkzr-s_raw.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1664 @@
+1
+00:00:21,260 --> 00:00:25,140
+بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم in the last meeting we
+
+2
+00:00:25,140 --> 00:00:28,800
+talked about the active or passive managers or
+
+3
+00:00:28,800 --> 00:00:31,780
+managements the main difference between active and
+
+4
+00:00:31,780 --> 00:00:34,320
+passive regarding to what extent the market is
+
+5
+00:00:34,320 --> 00:00:37,360
+efficient يعني الفرق بين ال .. ال active و ال
+
+6
+00:00:37,360 --> 00:00:41,500
+passive لأي درجة ال .. ال market is efficient لأي
+
+7
+00:00:41,500 --> 00:00:46,540
+درجة السوق المالي كفوء طبعا فال .. ال active
+
+8
+00:00:46,540 --> 00:00:49,820
+managers think that the market is not efficient
+
+9
+00:00:51,080 --> 00:00:55,340
+however the passive managers think the market is
+
+10
+00:00:55,340 --> 00:01:02,960
+efficient يعني المضراءاللي بيعملوا دايما تغيير في
+
+11
+00:01:02,960 --> 00:01:06,900
+ال portfolios تبعتهم بيعتقدوا ال market ليس كافر
+
+12
+00:01:06,900 --> 00:01:11,740
+لكن ال .. ال .. ال managers المدرة .. المدرة اللي
+
+13
+00:01:11,740 --> 00:01:14,120
+هم ما بيغيروا بال portfolios تبعتهم و passive
+
+14
+00:01:14,120 --> 00:01:17,660
+بيكونوا سلبيين لتغيرات السوق بيعتقدوا ان ال market
+
+15
+00:01:17,660 --> 00:01:20,740
+is .. is efficient and we don't need to rebalance
+
+16
+00:01:20,740 --> 00:01:23,380
+our portfolios or to follow up the .. the
+
+17
+00:01:23,380 --> 00:01:26,380
+information وما بيزامش كتير ان احنا ن .. نتابع
+
+18
+00:01:26,380 --> 00:01:30,000
+المعلوماتmarket efficiency and portfolio
+
+19
+00:01:30,000 --> 00:01:34,300
+management let's consider the relationship between
+
+20
+00:01:34,300 --> 00:01:37,560
+the market efficiency and the portfolio management
+
+21
+00:01:37,560 --> 00:01:40,780
+حكينا portfolio management اللي هو إدارة المحفظة
+
+22
+00:01:40,780 --> 00:01:45,840
+يمكن مش واضحة عندكم what it means portfolio خلينا
+
+23
+00:01:45,840 --> 00:01:50,280
+نفترض فرضية بسيطة لو كان أنا معايا 1000$ ألف دولار
+
+24
+00:01:50,280 --> 00:01:54,860
+I have two options to invest all of them in one
+
+25
+00:01:54,860 --> 00:01:59,390
+stock or one securityإنه أنا أستثمرهم كلهم في one
+
+26
+00:01:59,390 --> 00:02:03,970
+security in one single stock يعني أستثمر كل ال one
+
+27
+00:02:03,970 --> 00:02:10,970
+thousand dollar في سهم واحد the problem of this is
+
+28
+00:02:10,970 --> 00:02:15,750
+not considering the importance of risk يعني لو
+
+29
+00:02:15,750 --> 00:02:24,380
+كانت a ارتفعت is fine but when a is going downthis
+
+30
+00:02:24,380 --> 00:02:28,420
+investor will lose his or her all money يعني ال
+
+31
+00:02:28,420 --> 00:02:33,930
+investor هيخسر كل فلوسهbut if we invest this is if
+
+32
+00:02:33,930 --> 00:02:37,590
+we invest in one single security إذا احنا بنستثمر
+
+33
+00:02:37,590 --> 00:02:41,490
+في سهم واحد but in the portfolio management لكن
+
+34
+00:02:41,490 --> 00:02:46,290
+المحافظة الاستثمارية build on the notion مبنية على
+
+35
+00:02:46,290 --> 00:02:51,190
+فكرة that don't put your eggs on one basket يعني
+
+36
+00:02:51,190 --> 00:02:54,650
+مانحطش البيض كله تبعنا في سلة واحدة so we can
+
+37
+00:02:54,650 --> 00:02:59,700
+invest on a portfoliothis portfolio includes C, B,
+
+38
+00:03:00,340 --> 00:03:07,440
+A, X, Y for instance if A is going down maybe X is
+
+39
+00:03:07,440 --> 00:03:12,540
+going up, C is going up, Y going up and maybe B is
+
+40
+00:03:12,540 --> 00:03:17,970
+going down so it means yes so it's likeis good for
+
+41
+00:03:17,970 --> 00:03:21,230
+managing the risk إذا كويسة بتكون في managing the
+
+42
+00:03:21,230 --> 00:03:24,050
+risk so this is the importance of the portfolio
+
+43
+00:03:24,050 --> 00:03:27,890
+the portfolio the main importance of the portfolio
+
+44
+00:03:27,890 --> 00:03:32,090
+is increase the interest rate increase the rate of
+
+45
+00:03:32,090 --> 00:03:34,950
+return and decrease the risk يعني الهدف في النهاية
+
+46
+00:03:34,950 --> 00:03:37,570
+تبع ال portfolio المحفظة أن أحنا نزيد العائد و
+
+47
+00:03:37,570 --> 00:03:41,970
+نقلل المخاطر and in the chapter five and six we
+
+48
+00:03:41,970 --> 00:03:45,060
+will see how we can manage thisفي chapter خمسة و
+
+49
+00:03:45,060 --> 00:03:48,280
+ستة هنشوف كيف أنه احنا هنعمل managing لل portfolio
+
+50
+00:03:48,280 --> 00:03:55,240
+okay so the thing is the link between the market
+
+51
+00:03:55,240 --> 00:03:58,880
+efficiency and portfolio management enable the
+
+52
+00:03:58,880 --> 00:04:03,880
+investor to diversify their securities بيقدروا
+
+53
+00:04:03,880 --> 00:04:07,620
+ينوعوا فاحنا في ال portfolios احنا في عندنا C في
+
+54
+00:04:07,620 --> 00:04:10,820
+عندنا D في عندنا A في عندنا X و عندنا Y لأنه ال
+
+55
+00:04:10,820 --> 00:04:14,020
+market is efficientand we know the rate of return
+
+56
+00:04:14,020 --> 00:04:17,340
+of C, we know the risk, we know the rate of return
+
+57
+00:04:17,340 --> 00:04:20,760
+of Y, we know the risk, we know everything so this
+
+58
+00:04:20,760 --> 00:04:25,660
+enable us to do diversification diversification it
+
+59
+00:04:25,660 --> 00:04:29,720
+means تنويع بنقدر احنا ننوىnot only the
+
+60
+00:04:29,720 --> 00:04:33,440
+diversification on the securities on the stocks مش
+
+61
+00:04:33,440 --> 00:04:36,420
+بس ان احنا بنقدر نعمل تنويع بال stocks بالأسهم
+
+62
+00:04:36,420 --> 00:04:41,420
+ممكن we can create another portfolio ممكن ان احنا
+
+63
+00:04:41,420 --> 00:04:46,380
+نعمل portfolio أخرى includes stocks for instance A
+
+64
+00:04:46,380 --> 00:04:51,540
+,B,R stocks we can include the treasury bills we
+
+65
+00:04:51,540 --> 00:04:56,840
+can include bondsيعني ممكن احنا كمان ننوع بأنواع
+
+66
+00:04:56,840 --> 00:04:59,520
+ال securities نعمل diversification نعمل تنويح حسب
+
+67
+00:04:59,520 --> 00:05:03,600
+نوع ال securities ممكن احنا نحط أسهم و نحط سندات و
+
+68
+00:05:03,600 --> 00:05:08,020
+نحط treasure bins و سندات خزينة we can also build
+
+69
+00:05:08,020 --> 00:05:10,880
+another portfolio based on the geographic areas
+
+70
+00:05:10,880 --> 00:05:17,060
+حسب التنويع الجغرافي for instance united states
+
+71
+00:05:17,060 --> 00:05:22,020
+stocks ممكن نحط أسهم بتاعي على ال united states UK
+
+72
+00:05:22,020 --> 00:05:28,360
+stocksAsian, Asians stock أسهم أساوية for instance
+
+73
+00:05:28,360 --> 00:05:33,620
+نحط مثلا من Tokyo، من Japan، من دبي، من قطر، the
+
+74
+00:05:33,620 --> 00:05:40,640
+king سعودي we can include other areas in our
+
+75
+00:05:40,640 --> 00:05:44,040
+portfolios ممكن احنا نوّعالمحفظة الاستثمارية ممكن
+
+76
+00:05:44,040 --> 00:05:46,280
+ناخد أسهم من الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية أسهم من
+
+77
+00:05:46,280 --> 00:05:50,460
+الأوروبا أسهم من ال UK أسهم من السعودية من دبي من
+
+78
+00:05:50,460 --> 00:05:55,240
+قطر من Tokyo من ماليزيا فهي بيسموها تنويع جيографي
+
+79
+00:05:55,240 --> 00:06:03,650
+okayهذه هي الهيبوتسيز التسريحية التي تساعدنا في
+
+80
+00:06:03,650 --> 00:06:09,010
+تدفع ميزاتنا باستخدام الأمن باستخدام المناطق
+
+81
+00:06:09,010 --> 00:06:13,510
+الجغرافية باستخدام رغبات الأمن على سبيل المثال
+
+82
+00:06:13,510 --> 00:06:20,650
+نستطيع إنشاء ميزاتنا باستخدام على سبيل المثال
+
+83
+00:06:20,650 --> 00:06:30,350
+أساتذة رخية و أساتذة خفيةيعني ممكن احنا نعمل
+
+84
+00:06:30,350 --> 00:06:34,170
+portfolio جزء منها assets فيها مخاطر و assets
+
+85
+00:06:34,170 --> 00:06:38,610
+مافيهاش فيها مخاطر okay فزي ما انتوا شايفين ال
+
+86
+00:06:38,610 --> 00:06:43,290
+investors are free to form up their portfolios ان
+
+87
+00:06:43,290 --> 00:06:47,990
+المستثمرين هم أحرار في يكونوا ال portfolios تبعتهم
+
+88
+00:06:47,990 --> 00:06:52,350
+ممكن يعملوا جغرافية تنمية جغرافية ممكن they can
+
+89
+00:06:52,350 --> 00:06:56,950
+also diversify their portfolios based on the
+
+90
+00:06:56,950 --> 00:07:01,080
+industrial levelممكن حسب ال industrial level ممكن
+
+91
+00:07:01,080 --> 00:07:05,480
+هم يستثمروا مثلا في ال agriculture في الزراعة ممكن
+
+92
+00:07:05,480 --> 00:07:11,900
+في ال tourist السياحة ممكن يستثمروا في ال industry
+
+93
+00:07:11,900 --> 00:07:16,640
+الصناعة ممكن في ال telecommunication okay so they
+
+94
+00:07:16,640 --> 00:07:19,980
+don't need to to channel their funds to a
+
+95
+00:07:19,980 --> 00:07:25,000
+particular industry يعني مابيحتاجوش انه فقط يروحوا
+
+96
+00:07:25,000 --> 00:07:28,490
+يستثمروا only in the telecommunicationbecause if
+
+97
+00:07:28,490 --> 00:07:31,690
+they invest in only the telecommunication it means
+
+98
+00:07:31,690 --> 00:07:34,590
+they only taking the risk of the telecommunication
+
+99
+00:07:34,590 --> 00:07:37,310
+and if the telecommunication is going down all of
+
+100
+00:07:37,310 --> 00:07:39,930
+their portfolios is going down so they need to
+
+101
+00:07:39,930 --> 00:07:42,830
+diversify their portfolios based on the industrial
+
+102
+00:07:42,830 --> 00:07:46,830
+level فعشان هيك هم محتاجين كمان يعملوا تنويع في
+
+103
+00:07:46,830 --> 00:07:49,610
+المحفظة حسب ال industrial level يعني بيستثمروا في
+
+104
+00:07:49,610 --> 00:07:52,800
+العقارات في ال real estatesممكن يستثمروا في ال
+
+105
+00:07:52,800 --> 00:07:55,800
+currencies، في العملات، ممكن يستثمروا في السياحة،
+
+106
+00:07:55,800 --> 00:07:58,560
+يستثمروا في الصناعة، في ال telecommunication، في
+
+107
+00:07:58,560 --> 00:08:01,640
+.. في كل هذه يكونوا محافظ استثماريين، فإذا كانت ال
+
+108
+00:08:01,640 --> 00:08:04,720
+telecommunication is going down ممكن يكون في other
+
+109
+00:08:04,720 --> 00:08:09,520
+areas is going up، يعني areas أخرى بتطلع .. تطلع،
+
+110
+00:08:09,520 --> 00:08:13,080
+فهذه بدأت أخد بعين الأعتبار، إذا هذه some .. some
+
+111
+00:08:13,080 --> 00:08:17,850
+examples on how investorsforming up their
+
+112
+00:08:17,850 --> 00:08:21,370
+portfolios كيف هم بيكونوا المحافظة الاستثمارية
+
+113
+00:08:21,370 --> 00:08:27,610
+بناء على شو هم بدهمOkay ف the efficient markets
+
+114
+00:08:27,610 --> 00:08:32,390
+helping them to forming a good diversified
+
+115
+00:08:32,390 --> 00:08:36,730
+portfolio لتساعدهم بأنهم يحصلوا على تنويع ممتاز من
+
+116
+00:08:36,730 --> 00:08:39,670
+المحافظة الاستثمارية and as I said the main
+
+117
+00:08:39,670 --> 00:08:43,310
+objective of doing this is to reduce the risk يعني
+
+118
+00:08:43,310 --> 00:08:47,330
+الهدف أنه احنا نخفض المخاطر اللي بتتحملها ال
+
+119
+00:08:47,330 --> 00:08:53,370
+investorsThe second most important thing is
+
+120
+00:08:53,370 --> 00:08:57,990
+appropriate risk level if we look at the
+
+121
+00:08:57,990 --> 00:09:03,890
+portfolios the investors they try to assign which
+
+122
+00:09:03,890 --> 00:09:08,490
+risk they can apply
+
+123
+00:09:08,490 --> 00:09:12,190
+يعني بيقدروا من خلال ال portfolio يقولوا احنا بدنا
+
+124
+00:09:12,190 --> 00:09:16,680
+مخاطرX فبيقدروا يعملوا ال portfolios تبعتهم
+
+125
+00:09:16,680 --> 00:09:21,080
+according to the X risk يعني بتوفر لهم ال
+
+126
+00:09:21,080 --> 00:09:24,740
+portfolio management انه بالظبط يقدروا يكونوا
+
+127
+00:09:24,740 --> 00:09:32,140
+محافظ استثمارية with unknown risk يعني بيقدروا
+
+128
+00:09:32,140 --> 00:09:36,240
+يعملوا محافظ استثمارية معروفة المخاطرOkay فالأسواق
+
+129
+00:09:36,240 --> 00:09:39,600
+المالية بتساعدهم على الكلام هذا and they use
+
+130
+00:09:39,600 --> 00:09:42,060
+advanced calculations بيستخدموا ال advanced
+
+131
+00:09:42,060 --> 00:09:47,080
+calculations to do this يعني رياضيات متقدمة عشان
+
+132
+00:09:47,080 --> 00:09:50,220
+يحصلوا على ال appropriate risk يعني مثلا خليني
+
+133
+00:09:50,220 --> 00:09:56,160
+أعطيكم مثال لو أجاني investors شوفوا كيف مثلا
+
+134
+00:09:56,160 --> 00:10:03,650
+خليني .. لو أجاني أنا channelinvestors from
+
+135
+00:10:03,650 --> 00:10:09,830
+different origins يعني مستثمرين من من مختلف ال
+
+136
+00:10:09,830 --> 00:10:16,630
+origins المصادر okay مثلا عندنا I one investor one
+
+137
+00:10:16,630 --> 00:10:22,990
+I two investor two I three I four I five till I
+
+138
+00:10:22,990 --> 00:10:31,450
+end for instance I one is old old manلو كان ال I
+
+139
+00:10:31,450 --> 00:10:35,630
+one investor number one is old man رجل كبير and I
+
+140
+00:10:35,630 --> 00:10:42,770
+two is old lady I five for instance is young with
+
+141
+00:10:42,770 --> 00:10:48,070
+a secure job okay
+
+142
+00:10:48,070 --> 00:10:56,890
+and I four is young ladywith a secure job as well
+
+143
+00:10:56,890 --> 00:11:00,690
+so let's see how we can reflect appropriate level
+
+144
+00:11:00,690 --> 00:11:03,270
+of risk according to the characteristics of the
+
+145
+00:11:03,270 --> 00:11:06,310
+investors يعني خليني أشوف كيف احنا ممكن نعمل محفظة
+
+146
+00:11:06,310 --> 00:11:13,170
+استثمارية حسب المخاطر بتاعة ال investors okay طيب
+
+147
+00:11:13,170 --> 00:11:15,330
+هلأ لو نيجي احنا نيجي handle ال old men and old
+
+148
+00:11:15,330 --> 00:11:19,750
+ladies هدول بتحمل المخاطر؟شو رأيكم؟ زلمة كبيرة و
+
+149
+00:11:19,750 --> 00:11:22,390
+ستة كبيرة يعني retired people يعني خلينا نحكي هنا
+
+150
+00:11:22,390 --> 00:11:28,690
+number .. I3 retired lady يعني ستة تقاعدت يعني
+
+151
+00:11:28,690 --> 00:11:33,810
+كانت تشتغل و صار عندها تقاعد شو رأيكم؟ال old man و
+
+152
+00:11:33,810 --> 00:11:38,150
+ال old lady و ال retired lady هدول بتحملوش مخاطر
+
+153
+00:11:38,150 --> 00:11:42,210
+فإحنا إيش بنعملهم محفظة ناخدهم هدول مع بعض و
+
+154
+00:11:42,210 --> 00:11:46,130
+بنعملهم محفظة with lower risk بنعملهم محفظ
+
+155
+00:11:46,130 --> 00:11:49,670
+استثماري with lower risk طب إيش بنستثمرهم؟ إيش ال
+
+156
+00:11:49,670 --> 00:11:53,420
+investment اللي فيه lower risk؟ال treasury bills،
+
+157
+00:11:53,420 --> 00:11:56,440
+مظبوط، فيه lower risk، إيش فيه كمان؟ ال bonds،
+
+158
+00:11:56,440 --> 00:12:01,880
+فيها lower risk، إيش كمان؟ عقد ثابت، إيش رأيكم؟ ال
+
+159
+00:12:01,880 --> 00:12:04,420
+derivatives، نحطولهم في ال derivatives؟ نستثمرهم
+
+160
+00:12:04,420 --> 00:12:07,880
+في ال derivatives؟ no, لأن ال derivatives ..high
+
+161
+00:12:07,880 --> 00:12:12,580
+risk طيب وش كمان ممكن نعطيهم real estate عقارات
+
+162
+00:12:12,580 --> 00:12:15,500
+استثمروا بالعقارات so this is the thing so we
+
+163
+00:12:15,500 --> 00:12:19,000
+forming up this portfolio by using for instance
+
+164
+00:12:19,000 --> 00:12:21,980
+treasury bills which is risk free maybe treasury
+
+165
+00:12:21,980 --> 00:12:28,160
+bonds and real estate this is the example okay
+
+166
+00:12:28,160 --> 00:12:33,600
+let's consider the I4 and I5 I5 young man and
+
+167
+00:12:33,600 --> 00:12:39,480
+young lady with a secure jobصغار و عندهم شغلهم
+
+168
+00:12:39,480 --> 00:12:43,400
+okay so they can bear more risk so they can bear
+
+169
+00:12:43,400 --> 00:12:46,280
+more risk يعني ممكن يتحملوا or they hold they may
+
+170
+00:12:46,280 --> 00:12:50,540
+hold more risk فممكن يتحملوا مخاطر أعلى so وين
+
+171
+00:12:50,540 --> 00:12:53,240
+ممكن يستثمروا ممكن في ال stocks يستثمروا بال
+
+172
+00:12:53,240 --> 00:12:57,240
+stocks ممكن بال currencies ممكن يستثمروا ممكن في
+
+173
+00:12:57,240 --> 00:13:02,800
+ال derivatives okay that's it يعني شفنا احنا how
+
+174
+00:13:02,800 --> 00:13:09,000
+we reflect thisإذن حسب the characteristics of the
+
+175
+00:13:09,000 --> 00:13:14,240
+investors so we can forming up the appropriate
+
+176
+00:13:14,240 --> 00:13:18,040
+portfolio with appropriate risk يعني ممكن إحنا
+
+177
+00:13:18,040 --> 00:13:22,500
+ننشأ محافظة استثمارية حسب ال investors اللي سبعونا
+
+178
+00:13:22,500 --> 00:13:27,560
+وحسب المخاطر اللي هم ممكن يتحملوها okay so this is
+
+179
+00:13:27,560 --> 00:13:32,660
+the appropriate risk level the last one is tax
+
+180
+00:13:32,660 --> 00:13:36,890
+considerationstax tax consideration okay let's
+
+181
+00:13:36,890 --> 00:13:39,370
+focus on the importance of tax considerations
+
+182
+00:13:39,370 --> 00:13:44,950
+خلّيني أركز على ال tax considerations يعني
+
+183
+00:13:44,950 --> 00:13:54,930
+الاعتبارات الضريبية طيب
+
+184
+00:13:54,930 --> 00:14:03,980
+خلّيني أخد مثال احنا عندنا stock Astock A بيوزع
+
+185
+00:14:03,980 --> 00:14:13,360
+dividends، ال stock A نفسه ممكن
+
+186
+00:14:13,360 --> 00:14:19,040
+ما يدفع dividends، no dividends، نشوف what is the
+
+187
+00:14:19,040 --> 00:14:21,860
+difference when the stock A paying dividends and
+
+188
+00:14:21,860 --> 00:14:24,840
+when the stock A paying no dividends يعني إيش
+
+189
+00:14:24,840 --> 00:14:28,560
+الفرق بإنه الشركة تدفع أرباح .. تدفع توزيعات أرباح
+
+190
+00:14:28,560 --> 00:14:33,140
+و ما تدفعش؟the dividends when the investors
+
+191
+00:14:33,140 --> 00:14:37,600
+receiving the dividends they have to pay tax لازم
+
+192
+00:14:37,600 --> 00:14:45,700
+يدفعوا دريبة and this tax is maybe 25% هبتصل this
+
+193
+00:14:45,700 --> 00:14:50,280
+tax in the united states this the tax income is up
+
+194
+00:14:50,280 --> 00:14:54,520
+to 25% and in the UK as wellيعني في الولايات
+
+195
+00:14:54,520 --> 00:14:59,600
+المتحدة الأمريكية و ال .. و ال .. و ال UK بتصل ل
+
+196
+00:14:59,600 --> 00:15:05,480
+25% فاللي مثلا لو احنا we receive 10$ as a
+
+197
+00:15:05,480 --> 00:15:11,540
+dividends we have to pay 2.5$ as a tax okay this
+
+198
+00:15:11,540 --> 00:15:16,760
+is the .. this is the problem in the opposite if a
+
+199
+00:15:16,760 --> 00:15:24,000
+being no dividends it means there is no taxطيب
+
+200
+00:15:24,000 --> 00:15:26,660
+what is the alternative of not paying the
+
+201
+00:15:26,660 --> 00:15:31,840
+dividends؟ شو البديل أنه احنا ماددفعش نوزعش أرباح؟
+
+202
+00:15:31,840 --> 00:15:36,400
+فضل ازاي
+
+203
+00:15:36,400 --> 00:15:41,860
+صح كلامك بس ازاي انا احكي لك لما احنا ماددفعش
+
+204
+00:15:41,860 --> 00:15:45,840
+الأرباح انا محتجزة بيصير في 110 earnings أرباح
+
+205
+00:15:45,840 --> 00:15:50,200
+محتجزة اه بتكون قصود احنا الأصل هو عبارة عن قيمة
+
+206
+00:15:50,200 --> 00:15:57,970
+الفرق من القصود او قيمتهبصير ايش؟بتزيد المكية
+
+207
+00:15:57,970 --> 00:16:02,470
+بتزيد حصته بس هذا from the financial perspective
+
+208
+00:16:02,470 --> 00:16:05,770
+this is from the corporate finance perspective هذا
+
+209
+00:16:05,770 --> 00:16:08,970
+من غير نظر corporate finance but from the
+
+210
+00:16:08,970 --> 00:16:12,430
+financial market perspective you are right but
+
+211
+00:16:12,430 --> 00:16:14,990
+from the financial market perspective let's see
+
+212
+00:16:14,990 --> 00:16:19,050
+what is going خلينا نشوف ال A بتدفع dividends فهم
+
+213
+00:16:19,050 --> 00:16:22,170
+بدفعوا taxation فال investors اللي بتثمروا في A و
+
+214
+00:16:22,170 --> 00:16:28,010
+اللي بتدفع dividendsفهيدفعوا 25% taxation if a
+
+215
+00:16:28,010 --> 00:16:31,310
+decided not paying any dividends إذا هم قرروا
+
+216
+00:16:31,310 --> 00:16:34,550
+مايدفعوش dividends خلينا نشوف لو أنتوا شفتوا ال
+
+217
+00:16:34,550 --> 00:16:40,550
+assets و ال liabilities مظبوط؟فلما أنا ب .. بعمل
+
+218
+00:16:40,550 --> 00:16:46,310
+no dividends فبعمل احتجاز للأرباح فبتروحها تحت ال
+
+219
+00:16:46,310 --> 00:16:49,730
+capital as she said تحت ال capital بيصير في return
+
+220
+00:16:49,730 --> 00:16:53,910
+earnings طيب let's ask you a question return
+
+221
+00:16:53,910 --> 00:16:57,250
+earnings what is the importance of return earnings
+
+222
+00:16:57,250 --> 00:17:00,890
+خلينا سؤال finance إيش أهمية ال return earnings
+
+223
+00:17:00,890 --> 00:17:05,370
+ليش .. ليش الشركات بتعمل investment is for
+
+224
+00:17:05,370 --> 00:17:10,800
+expansionexpansion يعني توسع صح ولا لأOkay فالان
+
+225
+00:17:10,800 --> 00:17:16,120
+لما الشركات بتروح بتعمل keeping the profit it
+
+226
+00:17:16,120 --> 00:17:19,820
+means return earnings it means in the future they
+
+227
+00:17:19,820 --> 00:17:22,440
+may invest this money في المستقبل هم هيتستثمروا
+
+228
+00:17:22,440 --> 00:17:28,420
+الأموال because they keep this the price of the
+
+229
+00:17:28,420 --> 00:17:32,380
+stocks is going up لما الشركات تحتجز الأرباح
+
+230
+00:17:32,380 --> 00:17:36,060
+فالمستثمرين مقتنعين ان هاي الشركات لما تحتجز
+
+231
+00:17:36,060 --> 00:17:38,520
+الأرباح هتعمل expansion ايش يعني expansion يعني
+
+232
+00:17:38,520 --> 00:17:42,830
+توسعطب لأنه بده تعمل expansion فبصير ال investors
+
+233
+00:17:42,830 --> 00:17:46,990
+معنيين بالشركة هذه بتعرفوا أن الشركة هذه مثلا نيجي
+
+234
+00:17:46,990 --> 00:17:50,910
+بالتل عاملة تحتجز أرباح و بتفكر أنه تروح تعمل مثلا
+
+235
+00:17:50,910 --> 00:17:55,390
+a new investment فإيش اللي بيصير على ال price إيش
+
+236
+00:17:55,390 --> 00:17:58,490
+ال price السعر؟ شو بيصير فيه؟ going up بصير ارتفاع
+
+237
+00:17:58,490 --> 00:18:05,070
+طيب خليني عشان انا بتواصلكم فكرة معينة هلأ instead
+
+238
+00:18:05,070 --> 00:18:09,640
+of paying dividends بدل ما احنا ندفع dividendswe
+
+239
+00:18:09,640 --> 00:18:14,980
+are keeping the profits مظبوط keeping the profits
+
+240
+00:18:14,980 --> 00:18:20,740
+اللي هو بانجو سان نسميها returned earnings اللي هو
+
+241
+00:18:20,740 --> 00:18:26,020
+احتجاز أربعة طيب هلأ حكينا 25% اللي ندفعه على ال
+
+242
+00:18:26,020 --> 00:18:29,220
+dividend tax لما نعمل keeping the profits مع
+
+243
+00:18:29,220 --> 00:18:34,340
+الكلام we do expansion نعمل expansion توسع
+
+244
+00:18:36,580 --> 00:18:43,140
+لما يعمل توسع ال investors think that the income
+
+245
+00:18:43,140 --> 00:18:46,720
+will increase لما ال investors بيعرفوا أن الشركة
+
+246
+00:18:46,720 --> 00:18:50,460
+هي هتعمل توسع الأربعة هتزيد صح ولا لأ؟because they
+
+247
+00:18:50,460 --> 00:18:53,620
+think the income increase the price will going up
+
+248
+00:18:53,620 --> 00:18:58,500
+السعر هيرتفع okay what this means from the
+
+249
+00:18:58,500 --> 00:19:01,300
+financial market perspective هذا إيش معنى الكلام
+
+250
+00:19:01,300 --> 00:19:04,300
+من وجهة نظر ال financial perspective ال financial
+
+251
+00:19:04,300 --> 00:19:09,700
+perspective saying thatit means R the return on a
+
+252
+00:19:09,700 --> 00:19:13,900
+particular asset R of A this is from mathematical
+
+253
+00:19:13,900 --> 00:19:16,740
+perspective من وجهة نظر المحاسبية financial
+
+254
+00:19:16,740 --> 00:19:19,780
+mathematical perspective من وجهة نظر الأمالية
+
+255
+00:19:19,780 --> 00:19:23,220
+المحاسبية RA اللي هو السهم A اللي احنا حكينا فيه
+
+256
+00:19:23,220 --> 00:19:33,080
+بساوي D one D plus B one minus B not what it means
+
+257
+00:19:33,080 --> 00:19:41,760
+العائد بتاع RAهيساوي ال dividends على زائد pay one
+
+258
+00:19:41,760 --> 00:19:45,960
+سعر البيع ناقص سعر الشراقة معنى الكلام أنه احنا
+
+259
+00:19:45,960 --> 00:19:50,540
+العائد تبع السهم بنحصله من مكانين من ال dividends
+
+260
+00:19:50,540 --> 00:19:56,520
+و من ال capital gains هذا بيسموها capital gains
+
+261
+00:19:56,520 --> 00:20:02,320
+ليش سميناها capital gains لأنه احنا اشترينا السهم
+
+262
+00:20:02,320 --> 00:20:06,480
+على سعرو لما صار في keeping the profit هنبيعه على
+
+263
+00:20:06,480 --> 00:20:12,020
+سعر أعلى okay طب لنفترض احنا هنا حكينا ال tax high
+
+264
+00:20:12,020 --> 00:20:15,840
+ال tax في حالة ال dividends is greater than the
+
+265
+00:20:15,840 --> 00:20:18,960
+capital gains ال tax في حالة ال dividends is
+
+266
+00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:22,100
+greater than the capital gains الحكومة الأمريكية و
+
+267
+00:20:22,100 --> 00:20:26,220
+البريطانية و حتى اللي عندنا و ال local governments
+
+268
+00:20:26,220 --> 00:20:30,800
+و الحكومات المحلية عندنا بتفرض ضرائب أعلى على ال
+
+269
+00:20:30,800 --> 00:20:36,040
+dividendsفبصير إنه الاهتمام بال capital gains أكتر
+
+270
+00:20:36,040 --> 00:20:42,120
+من اهتمام بال dividends okay so the thing is some
+
+271
+00:20:42,120 --> 00:20:48,020
+investors they prefer to take dividends but the
+
+272
+00:20:48,020 --> 00:20:54,520
+problem is paying more tax بعض المستثمرينبيفضلوا
+
+273
+00:20:54,520 --> 00:20:57,660
+ال dividends لكن المشكلة إيش في ال dividends تدفع
+
+274
+00:20:57,660 --> 00:21:01,780
+دريبة عالية they have to do this يعني نرجع لمثالنا
+
+275
+00:21:01,780 --> 00:21:06,740
+إذا كانت راجل كبير و ست كبيرة بفضلوش ال capital
+
+276
+00:21:06,740 --> 00:21:10,360
+gains بفضلوش إن الشركات تروح تترسم للأربعة واحدة
+
+277
+00:21:10,360 --> 00:21:15,120
+بعدها بفضلوا كل شهرين تلاتة يجي لهم dividends لكن
+
+278
+00:21:15,120 --> 00:21:19,860
+المشكلة هذه they have to pay high tax لكن بواجهوا
+
+279
+00:21:19,860 --> 00:21:21,560
+مشكلة إنه بدفعوا high tax
+
+280
+00:21:24,390 --> 00:21:28,350
+people they prefer the capital gains they don't
+
+281
+00:21:28,350 --> 00:21:33,850
+consider the risk ماباهتموش بالضريبة they want to
+
+282
+00:21:33,850 --> 00:21:37,750
+avoid the high tax الناس اللي بيفضلوا الأرباح
+
+283
+00:21:37,750 --> 00:21:42,870
+المحتجزة طبعا في الحالة هذه هيتجنبوا دفع درائب
+
+284
+00:21:42,870 --> 00:21:48,920
+عالية فاحنا أمام two synergiesthe tax on the
+
+285
+00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:52,960
+dividends is higher than the capital gains الأرباح
+
+286
+00:21:52,960 --> 00:21:56,540
+الرقسمالية so some investors prefer the dividends
+
+287
+00:21:56,540 --> 00:22:02,340
+however it pay high tax other investors prefer the
+
+288
+00:22:02,340 --> 00:22:07,920
+.. the capital gains and paying no tax طب التنين
+
+289
+00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:11,360
+بيه مشكلة على فكرة التنين إيه إيش بيه مشكلة مشكلة
+
+290
+00:22:11,360 --> 00:22:14,320
+هذا معروفة أنه بي .. أنه الدرائب طب مشكلة هذا وين؟
+
+291
+00:22:16,580 --> 00:22:20,860
+time yes right the time ايش risk لأنه there is no
+
+292
+00:22:20,860 --> 00:22:24,320
+guarantee the price will go up فش ضمان الأسعار
+
+293
+00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:28,120
+ترتفع لفوق صحيح they are keeping the profits is
+
+294
+00:22:28,120 --> 00:22:31,180
+right they are keeping the profits but it is not
+
+295
+00:22:31,180 --> 00:22:35,300
+right the prices will go up يعني زي مثلا مثال
+
+296
+00:22:35,300 --> 00:22:38,800
+بنقول الحج والحجة اللي هو old man old man old lady
+
+297
+00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:43,880
+they consider one bird in your hand is more
+
+298
+00:22:43,880 --> 00:22:47,640
+preferable than ten birds on the treeيعني عصفور
+
+299
+00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:51,120
+بيدك أحسن من عشر ع الشجرة ده ال thing in this way
+
+300
+00:22:51,120 --> 00:22:55,420
+بقى young people الناس الصغار في السن اللي زيكو
+
+301
+00:22:55,420 --> 00:23:00,240
+طبعا they have difference بيقول لأ why I don't
+
+302
+00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:03,240
+need money for instance now so خلي العشر ع الشجرة
+
+303
+00:23:03,240 --> 00:23:07,640
+أحسن ما يكونوا في one bird in my hand because ten
+
+304
+00:23:07,640 --> 00:23:11,900
+trees .. ten birds on the tree إيش بيصير? ten
+
+305
+00:23:11,900 --> 00:23:17,650
+birds on the trees may call otherbears to be in
+
+306
+00:23:17,650 --> 00:23:21,410
+the tree but if the bird is in your hands, no
+
+307
+00:23:21,410 --> 00:23:25,130
+additional birds will be in your hands يعني لما
+
+308
+00:23:25,130 --> 00:23:28,950
+تخلوا العشر على الشجرة, they calling more birds
+
+309
+00:23:28,950 --> 00:23:32,710
+هيستدعوا طيور أكتر تيجي على الشجرة لكن لما يكون
+
+310
+00:23:32,710 --> 00:23:37,610
+الطير بيدك في حد هييجي و that's it يعني
+
+311
+00:23:40,050 --> 00:23:44,630
+الفكرة هان أنه ال capital gains is higher risk
+
+312
+00:23:44,630 --> 00:23:47,810
+than the dividends, the dividends is guaranteed,
+
+313
+00:23:48,130 --> 00:23:50,190
+there is a dividends, but the problem in the
+
+314
+00:23:50,190 --> 00:23:54,890
+dividends, there is high tax okay, so the
+
+315
+00:23:54,890 --> 00:23:57,590
+portfolios, the portfolio management is helping us
+
+316
+00:23:57,590 --> 00:24:00,790
+to state whether we prefer the tax or we avoid the
+
+317
+00:24:00,790 --> 00:24:04,990
+tax, some people or some investors are between the
+
+318
+00:24:04,990 --> 00:24:08,620
+two scenariosبعض الناس بال two scenarios ممكن
+
+319
+00:24:08,620 --> 00:24:12,080
+بياخدوا ال portfolios تبعتهم stocks بتعمل
+
+320
+00:24:12,080 --> 00:24:16,120
+dividends و stocks no dividends يعني بياخدوا أسهم
+
+321
+00:24:16,120 --> 00:24:19,280
+بتعمل dividends و أسهم مابتعملش dividends هدول
+
+322
+00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:28,900
+بيكونوا أيش يعني متوسط المخاطر تمام؟ okayيعني لو
+
+323
+00:24:28,900 --> 00:24:34,600
+احنا قررنا مثلا ladies بال in her 35 to 40 ست كانت
+
+324
+00:24:34,600 --> 00:24:40,120
+من 35 لل40 مع راجل من 35 لل40 طبعا ال ladies عادة
+
+325
+00:24:40,120 --> 00:24:44,920
+بيكونوا تحملوا المخاطر أقل فهم ممكن يختاروا
+
+326
+00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:49,360
+dividends مع capital gains ال mens تحملهم للمخاطر
+
+327
+00:24:49,360 --> 00:24:53,260
+أعلى شوية فممكن ان هم to go to the capital gains
+
+328
+00:24:53,260 --> 00:24:55,720
+انه يروحوا لل capital gains more than the
+
+329
+00:24:55,720 --> 00:25:01,350
+dividends okayهذا المثال ممكن احنا نعطيه طبعا هذا
+
+330
+00:25:01,350 --> 00:25:04,690
+لا يعني ان ال ladies they took whole dress لأ في
+
+331
+00:25:04,690 --> 00:25:08,610
+ناس ممكن يتحمل بس احنا بنحكي in majority in the
+
+332
+00:25:08,610 --> 00:25:15,010
+majority اه بال majority يعني ان هم جداش بتحمله
+
+333
+00:25:15,010 --> 00:25:19,290
+المخاطر ممكن رجال كمان conservative كونوا طبعا
+
+334
+00:25:19,290 --> 00:25:22,610
+احنا بنحكي بشكل عام ايش بيصير بالاسواق المالية
+
+335
+00:25:22,610 --> 00:25:23,470
+okay
+
+336
+00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:36,020
+طيب أي سؤال any question about the free
+
+337
+00:25:36,020 --> 00:25:39,200
+diversification appropriate risk level, tax
+
+338
+00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:45,200
+considerations؟ no questions؟ أه؟ في حد عنده سؤال؟
+
+339
+00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:51,260
+okay طيب resource allocations توزيع الموارد أو
+
+340
+00:25:51,260 --> 00:25:52,780
+تخصيص الموارد
+
+341
+00:25:59,910 --> 00:26:02,270
+طيب ال market .. we still talking about the
+
+342
+00:26:02,270 --> 00:26:05,010
+implications of market efficiency احنا مازالنا
+
+343
+00:26:05,010 --> 00:26:08,230
+بنحكي عن أثر ال market efficiency on portfolio
+
+344
+00:26:08,230 --> 00:26:12,450
+management على إدارة المحافظة الاستثمارية if you
+
+345
+00:26:12,450 --> 00:26:16,490
+think the market is inefficient we cannot
+
+346
+00:26:16,490 --> 00:26:20,290
+efficiently allocate our resources يعني إذا احنا
+
+347
+00:26:20,290 --> 00:26:24,530
+بنعتقد إن السوق غير كفوء بيكون احنا من الصعوبة إن
+
+348
+00:26:24,530 --> 00:26:29,200
+احنا نعمل تخصيص الموارد تبعتناbecause the market
+
+349
+00:26:29,200 --> 00:26:33,420
+is inefficient فبصير في miss pricing فبتكون الأسهم
+
+350
+00:26:33,420 --> 00:26:36,540
+الغالية هتكون رخيصة و الأسهم الرخيصة هتكون غالية
+
+351
+00:26:36,540 --> 00:26:41,260
+that's it يعني if the market is inefficient okay
+
+352
+00:26:42,550 --> 00:26:45,790
+فإذا كان السوق المالي كفو يعني لو أجينا احنا مثلا
+
+353
+00:26:45,790 --> 00:26:48,870
+على ال mobile إذا كان السوق المالي كفو هذا سعره
+
+354
+00:26:48,870 --> 00:26:51,610
+مثلا مائة دولار so the price is مائة دولار one
+
+355
+00:26:51,610 --> 00:26:55,430
+hundred dollar if the market is inefficient this
+
+356
+00:26:55,430 --> 00:26:59,610
+could be overpriced or could be underpriced ممكن
+
+357
+00:26:59,610 --> 00:27:02,570
+يكون أقل من سعره ممكن يكون أعلى من سعره يعني if
+
+358
+00:27:02,570 --> 00:27:04,730
+this one hundred dollar it could be one hundred
+
+359
+00:27:04,730 --> 00:27:07,510
+fifty if the market is inefficient and in this
+
+360
+00:27:07,510 --> 00:27:12,790
+case it is overpricedif it is fifty dollar it
+
+361
+00:27:12,790 --> 00:27:18,470
+means it is under priced and this is misleading if
+
+362
+00:27:18,470 --> 00:27:21,170
+the market is inefficient buying and selling these
+
+363
+00:27:21,170 --> 00:27:25,510
+mobile phones is misleading يعني ممكن تعمل
+
+364
+00:27:25,510 --> 00:27:31,310
+misleading يعني إيش misleading إنه مايستطيعوش
+
+365
+00:27:31,310 --> 00:27:34,310
+ال investors to take the right decision okay
+
+366
+00:27:39,170 --> 00:27:42,450
+ف the implications of .. if markets were
+
+367
+00:27:42,450 --> 00:27:47,250
+inefficient إذا كان الأسواق ليست كفؤة resources
+
+368
+00:27:47,250 --> 00:27:51,810
+would be systematically misallocated هنروح نعمل
+
+369
+00:27:51,810 --> 00:27:54,670
+misallocation لل .. نروح .. نروح نستثمر في أشياء
+
+370
+00:27:54,670 --> 00:27:57,350
+غالية هي المفروض تكون رخيصة و أشياء رخيصة المفروض
+
+371
+00:27:57,350 --> 00:28:01,230
+تكون غالية so this is the things misallocation or
+
+372
+00:28:01,230 --> 00:28:05,010
+misleading as .. as I explained fame with
+
+373
+00:28:05,010 --> 00:28:07,310
+overvalued securities can raise capital too
+
+374
+00:28:07,310 --> 00:28:13,780
+cheaplyيعني الشركات اللي أسعارها مغالا فيها ممكن
+
+375
+00:28:13,780 --> 00:28:20,560
+تحصل على تمويل رخيص و العكس شركات undervalued أقل
+
+376
+00:28:20,560 --> 00:28:25,280
+من قيمتها الحقيقية may have to pass up profitable
+
+377
+00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:27,700
+opportunities because cost of capital is too high
+
+378
+00:28:27,700 --> 00:28:30,980
+ممكن أنه ماتحصلش على تمويل لأنه ال cost of capital
+
+379
+00:28:30,980 --> 00:28:37,260
+تكليف رأس المال بتكون عالية جدا okay so this is
+
+380
+00:28:37,260 --> 00:28:41,630
+importantف resource allocation if the market is
+
+381
+00:28:41,630 --> 00:28:44,730
+efficient we can effectively allocate our
+
+382
+00:28:44,730 --> 00:28:49,170
+resources but the problem efficient market does
+
+383
+00:28:49,170 --> 00:28:53,230
+not mean perfect for sides markets مابتانش كل شي
+
+384
+00:28:53,230 --> 00:28:57,170
+تمام 100% اعطيكوا مثال يعني لا يعني انه if the
+
+385
+00:28:57,170 --> 00:29:01,150
+market is efficient it means we have a proper
+
+386
+00:29:01,150 --> 00:29:05,970
+asset allocation ده يعني انه السوق المالي كافه انه
+
+387
+00:29:05,970 --> 00:29:11,150
+في عندنا توزيع صحfor instance لو أنا جبتلكم car
+
+388
+00:29:11,150 --> 00:29:18,430
+2013 and we have two people سيارة 2013 efficient
+
+389
+00:29:18,430 --> 00:29:22,250
+خدنا نقول مثلا لموزين و جينا ال two people we have
+
+390
+00:29:22,250 --> 00:29:26,150
+a good driver and we have a bad driver and we said
+
+391
+00:29:26,150 --> 00:29:30,190
+to the bad driver take the keys and try it يعني
+
+392
+00:29:30,190 --> 00:29:33,290
+خدها المفاتيح و روح جربها maybe after one minute
+
+393
+00:29:33,290 --> 00:29:37,850
+come back with a smashed carممكن بعد دقيقة يرجعلنا
+
+394
+00:29:37,850 --> 00:29:42,790
+و السيارة مكسرة and we may talk to the second
+
+395
+00:29:42,790 --> 00:29:45,750
+driver which is an excellent driver with a good
+
+396
+00:29:45,750 --> 00:29:50,170
+profile he can use it and get it back with
+
+397
+00:29:50,170 --> 00:29:54,260
+excellent conditionلذا لدينا اتفاقين اثنين،
+
+398
+00:29:54,260 --> 00:29:59,760
+المشكلة في الناس و كيف يستخدموا المصادر، السيارة
+
+399
+00:29:59,760 --> 00:30:04,060
+مفيدة، كل شيء بخير، لكن المشكلة في الناس و كيف
+
+400
+00:30:04,060 --> 00:30:09,190
+يستخدموا المصادرyou have good experience with a
+
+401
+00:30:09,190 --> 00:30:11,310
+good knowledge with the .. with the .. with a good
+
+402
+00:30:11,310 --> 00:30:14,650
+profile you can efficiently and effectively manage
+
+403
+00:30:14,650 --> 00:30:18,530
+the portfolios if you don't have this knowledge it
+
+404
+00:30:18,530 --> 00:30:22,990
+means you cannot do this هذه المشكلة efficient
+
+405
+00:30:22,990 --> 00:30:25,450
+market does not mean perfect foresight markets
+
+406
+00:30:25,450 --> 00:30:28,210
+because it depends on how people foresight how
+
+407
+00:30:28,210 --> 00:30:32,050
+they understand the portfolios يعني لو احنا جيبنا
+
+408
+00:30:32,050 --> 00:30:36,190
+ال laptop هذا و حكينا للناس خدوا صمموه لشغلات على
+
+409
+00:30:36,190 --> 00:30:41,340
+ال laptopممكن ناس بعرفوه و ناس مابيعرفوش so it
+
+410
+00:30:41,340 --> 00:30:43,540
+depends يعني ما تفكروا ان والله احنا خدنا
+
+411
+00:30:43,540 --> 00:30:46,620
+portfolio management و investments و we can do
+
+412
+00:30:46,620 --> 00:30:51,440
+this so you should have skills to do the .. the
+
+413
+00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:57,020
+management .. the portfolio management okay نحكي
+
+414
+00:30:57,020 --> 00:31:02,410
+عن event studiesاللقاء الجاى بيكون نقف عند ال
+
+415
+00:31:02,410 --> 00:31:07,070
+event studies اللقاء الجاى is the last meeting
+
+416
+00:31:07,070 --> 00:31:11,770
+talking about the chapter four
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/CMcTZY_2GrA_postprocess.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/CMcTZY_2GrA_postprocess.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..2a803a91749decc7141e83019d1eca665695ca14
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/CMcTZY_2GrA_postprocess.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1072 @@
+1
+00:00:21,010 --> 00:00:24,010
+ال .. المرة الفاتة كنا نحكي عن موضوع ال .. ال bond
+
+2
+00:00:24,010 --> 00:00:28,270
+markets okay و ال .. و ال stock marketsوحكينا we
+
+3
+00:00:28,270 --> 00:00:31,130
+classify the bond market into two different
+
+4
+00:00:31,130 --> 00:00:34,450
+markets the governmental market and the corporate
+
+5
+00:00:34,450 --> 00:00:38,950
+bond .. the corporate bonds and the governmental
+
+6
+00:00:38,950 --> 00:00:42,570
+bonds is issued by the governments and the
+
+7
+00:00:42,570 --> 00:00:45,890
+corporate bonds is issued by the companies and
+
+8
+00:00:45,890 --> 00:00:48,390
+they had .. we have different classifications of
+
+9
+00:00:48,390 --> 00:00:51,250
+these bonds يعني احنا في عندنا تصنيفات أخرى لل
+
+10
+00:00:51,250 --> 00:00:55,390
+bonds سواء كانت السندات الحكومية أو سندات الشركات
+
+11
+00:00:57,560 --> 00:01:00,560
+ال .. الهدف الأساسي اليوم the .. the main
+
+12
+00:01:00,560 --> 00:01:03,120
+objective of the meeting today is to show you how
+
+13
+00:01:03,120 --> 00:01:06,980
+the pricing system in the bonds كيف طرق التسعير في
+
+14
+00:01:06,980 --> 00:01:10,920
+ال bondsOkay and if we have time, we will go in
+
+15
+00:01:10,920 --> 00:01:14,420
+details about the bonds classifications وإذا كان
+
+16
+00:01:14,420 --> 00:01:17,120
+المعنى موجود، هنحكي عن ال bonds classifications و
+
+17
+00:01:17,120 --> 00:01:28,260
+تصنيفات ال bonds It is important to access www.wsj
+
+18
+00:01:28,260 --> 00:01:34,020
+.comthis website is for wall street journal this
+
+19
+00:01:34,020 --> 00:01:39,700
+is a very important website in 1970s 80s you have
+
+20
+00:01:39,700 --> 00:01:43,840
+to pay money in order to access this website يعني
+
+21
+00:01:43,840 --> 00:01:47,040
+بالسبعينات تمانينات حتى التسعينات لازم تدفعوا فلوس
+
+22
+00:01:47,040 --> 00:01:50,540
+عشان تدخلوا على هذا ال website اليوم هذا ال
+
+23
+00:01:50,540 --> 00:01:54,260
+website free so you can access this website easily
+
+24
+00:01:54,800 --> 00:01:58,040
+أهمية هذا ال website أنه بعرض ال pricing .. ال
+
+25
+00:01:58,040 --> 00:02:01,520
+pricing information about the bond market, about
+
+26
+00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:03,760
+the stock market, about every financial ..
+
+27
+00:02:03,760 --> 00:02:06,920
+financial markets in the United States يعني بيعرض
+
+28
+00:02:06,920 --> 00:02:09,460
+كل المعلومات اللي بتعلقة في الأسواق الولايات
+
+29
+00:02:09,460 --> 00:02:12,980
+المتحدة الأمريكيةطبعا هذا اكتر واحد مشهور و اكبر
+
+30
+00:02:12,980 --> 00:02:19,000
+موقع بيعمل generation لل financial data يعني
+
+31
+00:02:19,000 --> 00:02:24,060
+بيعطينا معلومات مالية فعشان تشوف ال prices just go
+
+32
+00:02:24,060 --> 00:02:27,800
+to the bond prices and you can see the ..
+
+33
+00:02:27,800 --> 00:02:31,460
+unfortunately the internet is not going well عشان
+
+34
+00:02:31,460 --> 00:02:35,520
+هيك مش هنقدر نورجيكم الكلام هذا فان شاء الله when
+
+35
+00:02:35,520 --> 00:02:38,600
+you go home so you just login the wall street
+
+36
+00:02:38,600 --> 00:02:42,800
+journal it's like thisلوح على ال Wall Street
+
+37
+00:02:42,800 --> 00:02:47,200
+Journal هاي اللي بتروح على market data go to the
+
+38
+00:02:47,200 --> 00:02:51,060
+market data center and go to the you have many
+
+39
+00:02:51,060 --> 00:02:55,880
+options for instance US stocks, mutual markets,
+
+40
+00:02:56,220 --> 00:03:01,280
+mutual funds and bond rates and credit markets
+
+41
+00:03:01,280 --> 00:03:04,460
+فبتروح على bond rates و credit markets بتشوفوا كل
+
+42
+00:03:04,460 --> 00:03:09,080
+البيانات متعلقة في الأسواق السندات okay
+
+43
+00:03:13,550 --> 00:03:22,770
+زي ما انتوا شايفين انها بال ..
+
+44
+00:03:22,770 --> 00:03:27,490
+okay طبعا الكتاب أخد هذه المعلومات من ال wall
+
+45
+00:03:27,490 --> 00:03:30,770
+street journal المعلومات هذه أصلا أخوها من ال wall
+
+46
+00:03:30,770 --> 00:03:35,230
+street journal ل for some US government bonds and
+
+47
+00:03:35,230 --> 00:03:41,680
+notesلبعض السندات الحكومية و ال notes بتاعة ال ..
+
+48
+00:03:41,680 --> 00:03:44,860
+طب what it means government bonds سندات حكومية بق
+
+49
+00:03:44,860 --> 00:03:48,100
+what it means government notes هاي is .. is
+
+50
+00:03:48,100 --> 00:03:50,620
+terminology related to the .. to the governments
+
+51
+00:03:50,620 --> 00:03:55,000
+هذه عبارة عن مصطلحات الحكومة أو جداتها بق the ..
+
+52
+00:03:55,000 --> 00:03:58,380
+the main difference between the government bonds
+
+53
+00:03:58,380 --> 00:04:03,220
+and the government notes is the span is the life
+
+54
+00:04:03,220 --> 00:04:07,780
+span life spanالفرق هو ال life span اللي هي المدة
+
+55
+00:04:07,780 --> 00:04:17,180
+so the government bonds is span over 30 years you
+
+56
+00:04:17,180 --> 00:04:24,540
+see the government bonds are
+
+57
+00:04:24,540 --> 00:04:30,560
+greater than 10 years however the government notes
+
+58
+00:04:33,230 --> 00:04:40,830
+is less than or equal ten years or less than or
+
+59
+00:04:40,830 --> 00:04:44,410
+equal ten years less than or equal ten years يعني
+
+60
+00:04:44,410 --> 00:04:48,650
+السندات الحكومية ال bonds هي أكتر من عشر سنوات
+
+61
+00:04:48,650 --> 00:04:52,330
+تمتد حتى تلاتين سنة حتى أنا شوفت على ال website
+
+62
+00:04:52,330 --> 00:04:55,430
+لعند ال ألفين و أتنين و أربعين إذا بتفتح ال
+
+63
+00:04:55,430 --> 00:04:58,130
+website هتشوفوا سندات لسنة الألفين و أتنين و
+
+64
+00:04:58,130 --> 00:05:03,490
+أربعين يعني كام سنةمن 2013 ل2042 يعني حوالي around
+
+65
+00:05:03,490 --> 00:05:07,630
+تلاتين سنة و أقل شويه okay فممكن في ال website
+
+66
+00:05:07,630 --> 00:05:11,390
+هتشوفوا ان في سندات up to the twenty years, twenty
+
+67
+00:05:11,390 --> 00:05:15,110
+-five years and thirty years ال government notes
+
+68
+00:05:15,110 --> 00:05:20,030
+هي نوع من أنواع السندات الحكومية لكن هي بتصدر بأقل
+
+69
+00:05:20,030 --> 00:05:27,110
+أو تساوي عشر سنوات okay هذا listing لهذه السندات
+
+70
+00:05:28,300 --> 00:05:31,600
+هذا هو example of the of the treasury of the
+
+71
+00:05:31,600 --> 00:05:35,220
+government bonds and notes نتطلع احنا how they
+
+72
+00:05:35,220 --> 00:05:38,460
+price this the first column is maturity date
+
+73
+00:05:38,460 --> 00:05:43,640
+maturity date اللي هو تاريخ الاستحقاق the second
+
+74
+00:05:43,640 --> 00:05:48,480
+column is the coupon rate اللي هو الفائدة this
+
+75
+00:05:48,480 --> 00:05:52,360
+coupon rate is paid annually or semiannually تدفع
+
+76
+00:05:52,360 --> 00:05:57,180
+سنويًا or يعني لو احنا خدنا ال 5.125 اللي هي هذه
+
+77
+00:05:58,050 --> 00:06:03,570
+Okay it may paid annually ممكن ندفعها annually
+
+78
+00:06:03,570 --> 00:06:07,530
+يعني سنويا or semi annually if it is semi annually
+
+79
+00:06:07,530 --> 00:06:12,350
+you have to divide it by two لازم نقسمها by two
+
+80
+00:06:12,350 --> 00:06:17,180
+why it is called coupon rateليش سمناها coupon rate
+
+81
+00:06:17,180 --> 00:06:23,800
+لأنه قبل التكنولوجيا يعني قبل 2009 كانوا يعطوا ال
+
+82
+00:06:23,800 --> 00:06:30,240
+investors ال bond holder يعطوهم bonds
+
+83
+00:06:30,240 --> 00:06:36,720
+يعطوهم سند بهذا الشكل and divided into into
+
+84
+00:06:36,720 --> 00:06:41,400
+coupons و مقسم إلى couponات فاكرين ال couponات
+
+85
+00:06:41,400 --> 00:06:48,540
+العادية هذه فكل couponعليه اللي هو ال cash ال cash
+
+86
+00:06:48,540 --> 00:06:53,190
+valuefor instance لو أجينا احنا أخدنا مثال خمسة
+
+87
+00:06:53,190 --> 00:06:57,350
+فاصلة واحد اتنين خمسة five point one two five قلول
+
+88
+00:06:57,350 --> 00:07:01,770
+coupon if it is paid semiannually it means every
+
+89
+00:07:01,770 --> 00:07:06,930
+six months so we time it by one thousand one
+
+90
+00:07:06,930 --> 00:07:10,450
+thousand is the bar value عشان نعرف كده احنا كل ست
+
+91
+00:07:10,450 --> 00:07:13,910
+شهور لازم ناخد من السند بيقول ال bar value ضرب
+
+92
+00:07:13,910 --> 00:07:17,390
+اللي هو ال coupon كم بتطلع سيبقوا عندكم على القالع
+
+93
+00:07:17,390 --> 00:07:20,480
+الحاسب بشوفوا كم تطلعو أنا بحسبها عندى كمان على ال
+
+94
+00:07:20,480 --> 00:07:26,360
+Excel عشان نشوف okay هلا نشوف ال bar value ألف
+
+95
+00:07:26,360 --> 00:07:32,200
+دولار هى ألف دولار okay اه
+
+96
+00:07:32,200 --> 00:07:36,620
+be careful as I said in the previous meeting the
+
+97
+00:07:36,620 --> 00:07:39,500
+treasury bills are issued by bar value ten
+
+98
+00:07:39,500 --> 00:07:46,240
+thousands bonds is issued by one thousandOkay, so
+
+99
+00:07:46,240 --> 00:07:51,960
+be careful on this. So the bar value is
+
+100
+00:07:51,960 --> 00:07:59,940
+1000 مكبر الخط The
+
+101
+00:07:59,940 --> 00:08:04,620
+coupon, coupon is called by C, we can use C, the
+
+102
+00:08:04,620 --> 00:08:10,500
+coupon is 5.125
+
+103
+00:08:10,500 --> 00:08:12,740
+and don't forget this is as a percentage
+
+104
+00:08:15,450 --> 00:08:21,450
+sorry yes this is the coupon is paid semiannually
+
+105
+00:08:21,450 --> 00:08:26,510
+ال coupon paid semiannually يعني لازم نكسبه على
+
+106
+00:08:26,510 --> 00:08:30,850
+إيش لازم
+
+107
+00:08:30,850 --> 00:08:34,890
+نكسبه على اتنين لأنه semiannual ايه semiannual
+
+108
+00:08:34,890 --> 00:08:41,130
+يعني نفس غنوية يعني هذه الفائدة هي annual this
+
+109
+00:08:41,130 --> 00:08:45,710
+is standardهذا ال standard في السوق المالي خلاص
+
+110
+00:08:45,710 --> 00:08:49,110
+يعني عارفين ال investors they suggested the prices
+
+111
+00:08:49,110 --> 00:08:53,730
+and suggested coupon rates are annual يعني عارفين
+
+112
+00:08:53,730 --> 00:08:57,930
+ال investors هذي annual فعشان نحسب ال semi-annual
+
+113
+00:08:57,930 --> 00:09:01,510
+you have to divide it by two ال semi-annual ل 6
+
+114
+00:09:01,510 --> 00:09:04,690
+شهور يعني إذا بالسنة بناخد المبلغ هذا طب بال 6
+
+115
+00:09:04,690 --> 00:09:09,590
+شهور قداش نقسم على 2 okay فإحنا لو روح نقسم
+
+116
+00:09:12,280 --> 00:09:20,920
+بتقسيم اتنين okay بطلع اللي هو point 025 عشان نعرف
+
+117
+00:09:20,920 --> 00:09:27,600
+كده هيطلع علينا كل ست شهور اللي هو ال cash cash
+
+118
+00:09:27,600 --> 00:09:32,580
+هيطلع يساوي اللي هو الألف بنضربها في ال rates
+
+119
+00:09:32,580 --> 00:09:38,680
+فبطلع عندنا كل ست شهور بناخد خمسة و عشرين دولار
+
+120
+00:09:38,680 --> 00:09:41,900
+فاصلة 625 فبيجي
+
+121
+00:09:44,080 --> 00:09:52,840
+نعيدها أخر مرة الـ bar value ألف دولار ال coupon
+
+122
+00:09:52,840 --> 00:09:59,920
+كم؟ five point one two five don't forget this is
+
+123
+00:09:59,920 --> 00:10:04,500
+percentage طيب لما بنيجي semi annual كل ست شهور
+
+124
+00:10:04,500 --> 00:10:09,540
+لازم نقسمها c على two اللي هو five one two five
+
+125
+00:10:09,540 --> 00:10:20,820
+divided by twoبطلع الجواب هان يعني اتنين و نص ستة
+
+126
+00:10:20,820 --> 00:10:26,720
+اتنين خمسة في المية okay هلأ هذا الجواب بنضربه في
+
+127
+00:10:26,720 --> 00:10:31,420
+الألف دولار بطلع عندنا خمسة و عشرين دولار ست مية و
+
+128
+00:10:31,420 --> 00:10:35,720
+خمسة و عشرين هلأ كل .. every six months كل ست شهور
+
+129
+00:10:35,720 --> 00:10:40,860
+بيكون في عندي couponكل ست شهور فبيجي ال investor
+
+130
+00:10:40,860 --> 00:10:47,720
+برفع ال coupon و بروح البنك و بيحط قيمته okay من
+
+131
+00:10:47,720 --> 00:10:52,860
+هون اجت كلمة coupon فال coupon بمزع ال .. يعني ال
+
+132
+00:10:52,860 --> 00:10:57,020
+coupon العادية فبمزع ال investors ال .. ال ..
+
+133
+00:10:57,020 --> 00:10:59,700
+الورقة اللي بتخص ال ست شهور هذه و بروح البنك و
+
+134
+00:10:59,700 --> 00:11:04,210
+بحصل قيمتهاالان مثلا خلصت هذه الست شهور الجاى برضه
+
+135
+00:11:04,210 --> 00:11:08,210
+بمزعل بعديها و هكذا لما يخلص الكوبون لمدة .. زى
+
+136
+00:11:08,210 --> 00:11:13,810
+الشكال بالظبط هلأ هذا النظام خلص هذا النظام لعندي
+
+137
+00:11:13,810 --> 00:11:18,350
+التسعين كان موجود هلأ صار كله electronic كل
+
+138
+00:11:18,350 --> 00:11:21,470
+electronic يتم .. كل ست شهور يضعف للحساب قيمة
+
+139
+00:11:21,470 --> 00:11:31,920
+الكوبون okay نرجع لل ..على ال 25.625 دربتها اسمها
+
+140
+00:11:31,920 --> 00:11:35,980
+كيفش بتعملها دربتها في ال 1100 ضرب عليها هى هذى
+
+141
+00:11:35,980 --> 00:11:46,420
+تساوي 1000 مضروبة في 5.125 divided by 2 okay بتطلع
+
+142
+00:11:46,420 --> 00:11:55,960
+هذا القيمة okay okay مش
+
+143
+00:11:55,960 --> 00:12:01,070
+سامعاقرأ الأسئلة في نهاية ال chapter بتعرف كيف
+
+144
+00:12:01,070 --> 00:12:08,890
+تيجي okay هلأ خلصنا ال .. خلصنا ال coupon خلصنا ال
+
+145
+00:12:08,890 --> 00:12:15,410
+coupon ال coupon rates كمان مرة هو سعر فائدة
+
+146
+00:12:15,410 --> 00:12:19,350
+الكوبوني اللي احنا هناخده على السند اللي هو قيمة
+
+147
+00:12:19,350 --> 00:12:25,130
+ال bar value تبع السند ألف دولار okay ال bid و ال
+
+148
+00:12:25,130 --> 00:12:31,260
+ask نيجي نحكي ع ال bid و ال askال bid و ال ask
+
+149
+00:12:31,260 --> 00:12:38,640
+خلّيني
+
+150
+00:12:38,640 --> 00:12:40,360
+لحظة بس نحكي على ال bid و ال ask
+
+151
+00:12:45,800 --> 00:12:52,340
+الـ bid و ال ask price ناخد ال bid 100.09 لاحظوا
+
+152
+00:12:52,340 --> 00:12:57,380
+طريقة التسعير 100 نقطتين فوق بعض مش نقطة محتوطة
+
+153
+00:12:57,380 --> 00:13:04,580
+نقطتين فوق بعض 09110 ايش
+
+154
+00:13:04,580 --> 00:13:11,820
+معناه what it means this خليني بس لحظة نحكي 100
+
+155
+00:13:11,820 --> 00:13:18,050
+نقطتين فوق بعضO9 100 وتنفق بعد 10 تطلعوا على اللي
+
+156
+00:13:18,050 --> 00:13:22,330
+موجود عندكم موجود نقطة ولا نقطتين okay what it
+
+157
+00:13:22,330 --> 00:13:29,290
+means ايش معناها لأ مش 9% بتعني ان هذا الرقم ال O9
+
+158
+00:13:29,290 --> 00:13:39,020
+and 10 is divided by 32 مقصوم على 32ليش؟ this is
+
+159
+00:13:39,020 --> 00:13:44,300
+standard in the US markets هذا standard في أسواق
+
+160
+00:13:44,300 --> 00:13:47,060
+الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية طبعا لأنه في الولايات
+
+161
+00:13:47,060 --> 00:13:51,640
+المتحدة الأمريكية بيستخدموا نظام التسعير الكسر
+
+162
+00:13:51,640 --> 00:13:55,500
+العادي بيستخدموا الكسر العادي مش الكسر العشري
+
+163
+00:13:55,500 --> 00:13:59,240
+كانوا في السابق يستخدموا one divided by eight
+
+164
+00:13:59,240 --> 00:14:05,680
+سابقا بعدين استخدموا one divided by sixteenبعدين
+
+165
+00:14:05,680 --> 00:14:12,440
+استخدموا one divided by 32 أول تمن واحدة ستة عشر
+
+166
+00:14:12,440 --> 00:14:15,580
+واحدة اتنين و تلاتين فإذا انتوا بتشوفين هذا الرقم
+
+167
+00:14:15,580 --> 00:14:19,900
+هذا الرقم يعني او نين على اتنين و تلاتين طبعا ال
+
+168
+00:14:19,900 --> 00:14:22,640
+investors بيقولولهمش الكلام هذا because they
+
+169
+00:14:22,640 --> 00:14:26,320
+already know about this ال investors ما بيحكولهمش
+
+170
+00:14:26,320 --> 00:14:28,780
+لأن ال investors عارفين الكلام هذا ان او نين
+
+171
+00:14:28,780 --> 00:14:32,980
+divided by 32 how to convert this into price كيف
+
+172
+00:14:32,980 --> 00:14:39,290
+نحولها لسعركمان مرة ال bid و ال ask مش مسعرة
+
+173
+00:14:39,290 --> 00:14:43,170
+بطريقة التسعير اللي احنا بنعرفه يعني اما احنا نروح
+
+174
+00:14:43,170 --> 00:14:47,190
+على السوق مثلا نسأل كام سعر الغسالة هيجي يحكينا
+
+175
+00:14:47,190 --> 00:14:51,730
+سعر الغسالة 500 شكل بس في الأسواق المالية ما
+
+176
+00:14:51,730 --> 00:14:54,270
+بيعملوا هاي ال pricing system ما بيعملوش نظام
+
+177
+00:14:54,270 --> 00:14:58,450
+التسعير عندهم نظام تسعير بختلف تماما عن اللي احنا
+
+178
+00:14:58,450 --> 00:15:03,030
+بنعرفهنظام التسعير الموجود في ال bonds تحديدا ال
+
+179
+00:15:03,030 --> 00:15:06,890
+bonds they use percentage system احفظوها they use
+
+180
+00:15:06,890 --> 00:15:11,010
+percentage system percentage
+
+181
+00:15:11,010 --> 00:15:15,070
+system of what of the bar value percentage of bar
+
+182
+00:15:15,070 --> 00:15:19,730
+value ال bar value اللي هو القيمة الإسمية للسند
+
+183
+00:15:19,730 --> 00:15:24,650
+يعني القيمة هاي اللي انتوا شايفينها thisis the
+
+184
+00:15:24,650 --> 00:15:29,230
+percentage of the bar value يعني هي نسبة مأوية من
+
+185
+00:15:29,230 --> 00:15:33,010
+القيمة الاسمية so how we convert this into price
+
+186
+00:15:33,010 --> 00:15:38,270
+system كيف نحولها لسعر احنا بنعرفه the investors
+
+187
+00:15:38,270 --> 00:15:41,370
+they don't need to convert this ال investors they
+
+188
+00:15:41,370 --> 00:15:43,450
+don't need because they understand they know this
+
+189
+00:15:44,310 --> 00:15:47,110
+ال investors بيعرفوا الكلام هذا لكن انتوا as a
+
+190
+00:15:47,110 --> 00:15:49,710
+student you don't know this so you need to convert
+
+191
+00:15:49,710 --> 00:15:52,570
+into the prices system that you understand
+
+192
+00:15:52,570 --> 00:15:56,770
+بتحتاجوا تحولوها لأسعار انتوا بتعرفوها so how we
+
+193
+00:15:56,770 --> 00:16:01,430
+do this أول خطوة و اتبعوا معايا و بفضل يكون معاكم
+
+194
+00:16:01,430 --> 00:16:05,330
+آلات حاسبة okay أكيد البنات اللي معاهم مش آلات
+
+195
+00:16:05,330 --> 00:16:08,210
+حاسبة مش هيفهموا اللي احنا بنحكي فيهdefinitely
+
+196
+00:16:08,210 --> 00:16:11,810
+يعني وبالتالي يعني رجاء أن تستخدموا القانعة حاسبة
+
+197
+00:16:11,810 --> 00:16:19,250
+أول خطوة step one step one you have to calculate
+
+198
+00:16:19,250 --> 00:16:25,370
+the o9 لازم نحسب ال o9 the o9 is not the o9 as you
+
+199
+00:16:25,370 --> 00:16:29,830
+know this point o9 because we don't have point o9
+
+200
+00:16:29,830 --> 00:16:39,190
+we have o9 like thisماذا يعني 09 مثلًا، يعني 09 ÷
+
+201
+00:16:39,190 --> 00:16:43,510
+32، لذلك كون حذرًا، في مجلد جديد، كون حذرًا عن
+
+202
+00:16:43,510 --> 00:16:56,210
+هذا، لذلك 09 ÷ 32 يعني نقطة، حسنًا هي نقطة 28،
+
+203
+00:16:56,210 --> 00:17:03,030
+لذلك الآن 100.28
+
+204
+00:17:04,400 --> 00:17:11,740
+أنت تعرف أن 100 هو 100 و 28 يأتي من 09 مقال 32 هذا
+
+205
+00:17:11,740 --> 00:17:18,020
+هو الخطوة الأولى الخطوة الثانوية هي
+
+206
+00:17:18,020 --> 00:17:29,100
+أن تزيد أسعار البيت بالمقال البر 100
+
+207
+00:17:29,100 --> 00:17:33,460
+.28×1000
+
+208
+00:17:35,380 --> 00:17:46,180
+كون حذرا، وانتبهان، هذا الـ100.28 هو البرمجة،
+
+209
+00:17:46,180 --> 00:17:50,900
+مرة أخرى، مرحلة واحدة أو سيب واحد، 09 مقال 32 يعني
+
+210
+00:17:50,900 --> 00:17:59,560
+0.28، الأن تضيف 28 إلى 100، فهو 100.28،
+
+211
+00:18:01,300 --> 00:18:08,300
+الدرجة التالية او الدرجة الثانية هي 100.28×1000
+
+212
+00:18:08,300 --> 00:18:15,420
+1000 هو قيمة الـ bar كون حذرا، اسمعني، كون حذرا،
+
+213
+00:18:15,420 --> 00:18:22,960
+128 هو مجموعة، كيف نفعلها بعد أن نقل هذا إلى هذا
+
+214
+00:18:22,960 --> 00:18:27,340
+ونقله إلى 100 طبعا
+
+215
+00:18:27,340 --> 00:18:28,520
+بعد ما نطلع الجواب
+
+216
+00:18:31,470 --> 00:18:39,190
+هذا طبعا الف point eight okay
+
+217
+00:18:39,190 --> 00:18:42,350
+now
+
+218
+00:18:42,350 --> 00:18:47,760
+this is for the bid price yes this is dollarThis
+
+219
+00:18:47,760 --> 00:18:51,760
+price is dollar if you match between the price
+
+220
+00:18:51,760 --> 00:18:56,020
+here look at the price here look at the price one
+
+221
+00:18:56,020 --> 00:19:00,000
+thousand two point eight and the price bid price
+
+222
+00:19:00,000 --> 00:19:05,540
+is totally different بختلف كتير عن بعض لأن هذا is
+
+223
+00:19:05,540 --> 00:19:08,980
+a pricing system based on the dollar هذا طريق
+
+224
+00:19:08,980 --> 00:19:12,600
+تسعير بالدولار and this pricing system based on
+
+225
+00:19:12,600 --> 00:19:18,600
+the percentage and the divided by 32Lets go to the
+
+226
+00:19:18,600 --> 00:19:24,420
+ask price اعملوا لحالكوا ال ask price هاي ال ask
+
+227
+00:19:24,420 --> 00:19:29,100
+price اعملوا لوحدكم ال ask price one hundred and
+
+228
+00:19:29,100 --> 00:19:36,780
+ten convert this price into the pricing system or
+
+229
+00:19:36,780 --> 00:19:39,240
+the normal pricing system ماحكتلك هذا ال standard
+
+230
+00:19:39,240 --> 00:19:44,120
+في الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية لأ مش معطف سؤال انت
+
+231
+00:19:44,120 --> 00:19:48,150
+لأ you have to know it by yourself be carefulهذه
+
+232
+00:19:48,150 --> 00:19:53,090
+المعلومات انا بعطيكوا بس الجدول بعطيكوا الجدول as
+
+233
+00:19:53,090 --> 00:19:56,810
+this table and do it by yourself ببحكي لكم مش انا
+
+234
+00:19:56,810 --> 00:20:03,830
+اجسمها 32 you have to do by yourself هذه 100.28
+
+235
+00:20:03,830 --> 00:20:08,890
+okay خلّي انت كأنها مش موجودة تبني ضرب الألف بعد
+
+236
+00:20:08,890 --> 00:20:14,830
+ما يطلع الجواب جسمي عالمية بيطلع كام طب نتبع خطوة
+
+237
+00:20:14,830 --> 00:20:24,010
+خطوةالخطوة خطوة الخطوة الخطوة
+
+238
+00:20:24,010 --> 00:20:27,410
+الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة
+
+239
+00:20:27,410 --> 00:20:28,170
+الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة
+
+240
+00:20:28,170 --> 00:20:29,630
+الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة
+
+241
+00:20:29,630 --> 00:20:29,890
+الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة الخطوة
+
+242
+00:20:29,890 --> 00:20:39,530
+الخطوة الخطوة
+
+243
+00:20:39,530 --> 00:20:43,610
+الخطو
+
+244
+00:20:45,070 --> 00:20:59,690
+1000 x 1000 تطلع 1300.1 بس that's it this
+
+245
+00:20:59,690 --> 00:21:03,410
+result
+
+246
+00:21:03,410 --> 00:21:07,470
+based on the dollar value هذه قيمة الدولار معناه
+
+247
+00:21:07,470 --> 00:21:13,480
+كلام if I ask youاسمعوا يا بنات if I ask you how
+
+248
+00:21:13,480 --> 00:21:19,140
+much the dealer make profits from the bids and ask
+
+249
+00:21:19,140 --> 00:21:23,840
+price by using the dollar system؟ قد ياش لبح
+
+250
+00:21:23,840 --> 00:21:26,480
+التاجر و ال dealer بالدولار؟
+
+251
+00:21:29,280 --> 00:21:36,440
+كداش؟ ألف و تلاتة point one minus point eight
+
+252
+00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:43,520
+بالظبط اذا ال profit of dealer is one thousand
+
+253
+00:21:43,520 --> 00:21:47,780
+three point one minus one thousand two point eight
+
+254
+00:21:47,780 --> 00:21:51,600
+okay
+
+255
+00:21:51,600 --> 00:21:56,820
+هيكون هذا سعر point three I think point three
+
+256
+00:21:56,820 --> 00:21:57,940
+dollar
+
+257
+00:22:00,110 --> 00:22:05,090
+if the investor bought one thousand bonds how much
+
+258
+00:22:05,090 --> 00:22:14,170
+they profit yes time one thousand listen
+
+259
+00:22:14,170 --> 00:22:18,030
+carefully if the investor bought one thousand
+
+260
+00:22:18,030 --> 00:22:25,390
+bonds very simple يعني إذا كل سند إذا المستثمر
+
+261
+00:22:25,390 --> 00:22:29,390
+اشترى الف سند جدراش بيكون بربح نضرب الألف ال point
+
+262
+00:22:29,390 --> 00:22:29,690
+three
+
+263
+00:22:35,360 --> 00:22:40,660
+I told you if the investor bought 1000 bonds اذا
+
+264
+00:22:40,660 --> 00:22:47,100
+المستثمر اشترى 1000 سند قداش بتكون ربحه يعني يا
+
+265
+00:22:47,100 --> 00:22:52,760
+بنات بالعربي لو تاجر في غزة اشترى لعب اطفال وكل
+
+266
+00:22:52,760 --> 00:22:56,140
+لعبة بربح فيها عشرين شكل لو اشترى الف لعبة قداش
+
+267
+00:22:56,140 --> 00:23:01,300
+بربح هذا ال bond prices هذا هو ال bond prices the
+
+268
+00:23:01,300 --> 00:23:05,740
+next meetingهنحكي على Stock Markets
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/CMcTZY_2GrA_raw.json b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/CMcTZY_2GrA_raw.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..e02ba482b92d4e033f5bbaa1806cb81dddbe4318
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/CMcTZY_2GrA_raw.json
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"segments": [{"id": 1, "seek": 2627, "start": 21.01, "end": 26.27, "text": "ال .. المرة الفاتة كنا نحكي عن موضوع ال .. ال bond markets okay و ال .. و ال stock markets", "tokens": [6027, 4386, 9673, 25720, 27188, 9307, 3660, 9122, 8315, 8717, 5016, 4117, 1829, 18871, 3714, 2407, 11242, 45367, 2423, 4386, 2423, 6086, 8383, 1392, 4032, 2423, 4386, 4032, 2423, 4127, 8383], "avg_logprob": -0.18408202892169356, "compression_ratio": 1.2828282828282829, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 21.01, "end": 21.29, "word": "ال", "probability": 0.68994140625}, {"start": 21.29, "end": 21.35, "word": " ..", "probability": 0.52734375}, {"start": 21.35, "end": 21.63, "word": " المرة", "probability": 0.909912109375}, {"start": 21.63, "end": 21.93, "word": " الفاتة", "probability": 0.6590169270833334}, {"start": 21.93, "end": 22.13, "word": " كنا", "probability": 0.898681640625}, {"start": 22.13, "end": 22.45, "word": " نحكي", "probability": 0.8433837890625}, {"start": 22.45, "end": 22.57, "word": " عن", "probability": 0.990234375}, {"start": 22.57, "end": 23.01, "word": " موضوع", "probability": 0.9810791015625}, {"start": 23.01, "end": 23.35, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.99072265625}, {"start": 23.35, "end": 23.65, "word": " ..", "probability": 0.75830078125}, {"start": 23.65, "end": 23.81, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.92822265625}, {"start": 23.81, "end": 24.01, "word": " bond", "probability": 0.92431640625}, {"start": 24.01, "end": 24.51, "word": " markets", "probability": 0.73583984375}, {"start": 24.51, "end": 24.83, "word": " okay", "probability": 0.67626953125}, {"start": 24.83, "end": 25.05, "word": " و", "probability": 0.5908203125}, {"start": 25.05, "end": 25.29, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.90625}, {"start": 25.29, "end": 25.51, "word": " ..", "probability": 0.9873046875}, {"start": 25.51, "end": 25.65, "word": " و", "probability": 0.95068359375}, {"start": 25.65, "end": 25.69, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.9697265625}, {"start": 25.69, "end": 25.87, 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the internet is not going well عشان هيك مش هنقدر نورجيكم الكلام هذا فان شاء الله when you go home so you just login the wall street journal it's like this", "tokens": [9566, 3555, 3615, 995, 23758, 1975, 4117, 2655, 2288, 36764, 24401, 37893, 3224, 13063, 4032, 1975, 4117, 26890, 3714, 30543, 3615, 4724, 1829, 25957, 1211, 5125, 24976, 4669, 1412, 37495, 22653, 4724, 1829, 3615, 9566, 1829, 8315, 20449, 1211, 20498, 9307, 3714, 6027, 10632, 6156, 3615, 8592, 7649, 6055, 8592, 38688, 2423, 7901, 445, 352, 281, 264, 6086, 7901, 293, 291, 393, 536, 264, 4386, 7015, 264, 4705, 307, 406, 516, 731, 6225, 8592, 7649, 39896, 4117, 37893, 8032, 1863, 28543, 2288, 8717, 13063, 7435, 1829, 24793, 2423, 28820, 10943, 23758, 6156, 7649, 13412, 16606, 21984, 562, 291, 352, 1280, 370, 291, 445, 24276, 264, 2929, 4838, 6708, 309, 311, 411, 341], "avg_logprob": -0.1272123914904299, "compression_ratio": 1.52901023890785, "no_speech_prob": 1.1920928955078125e-07, "words": [{"start": 130.98, "end": 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So the bar value is 1000 مكبر الخط The coupon, coupon is called by C, we can use C, the coupon is 5.125 and don't forget this is as a percentage", "tokens": [8297, 11, 370, 312, 5026, 322, 341, 13, 407, 264, 2159, 2158, 307, 9714, 3714, 4117, 26890, 33962, 9566, 440, 33390, 11, 33390, 307, 1219, 538, 383, 11, 321, 393, 764, 383, 11, 264, 33390, 307, 1025, 13, 48804, 293, 500, 380, 2870, 341, 307, 382, 257, 9668], "avg_logprob": -0.29001912292169063, "compression_ratio": 1.1753246753246753, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 465.16, "end": 465.56, "word": "Okay,", "probability": 0.31201171875}, {"start": 465.76, "end": 466.24, "word": " so", "probability": 0.71484375}, {"start": 466.24, "end": 466.42, "word": " be", "probability": 0.83251953125}, {"start": 466.42, "end": 466.7, "word": " careful", "probability": 0.9541015625}, {"start": 466.7, "end": 466.88, "word": " on", "probability": 0.7080078125}, {"start": 466.88, "end": 467.14, "word": " this.", "probability": 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"probability": 0.99296875}, {"start": 887.87, "end": 888.13, "word": " 500", "probability": 0.59521484375}, {"start": 888.13, "end": 888.59, "word": " شكل", "probability": 0.72802734375}, {"start": 888.59, "end": 890.71, "word": " بس", "probability": 0.94189453125}, {"start": 890.71, "end": 890.81, "word": " في", "probability": 0.9111328125}, {"start": 890.81, "end": 891.17, "word": " الأسواق", "probability": 0.982177734375}, {"start": 891.17, "end": 891.57, "word": " المالية", "probability": 0.9931640625}, {"start": 891.57, "end": 891.73, "word": " ما", "probability": 0.8427734375}, {"start": 891.73, "end": 892.09, "word": " بيعملوا", "probability": 0.92802734375}, {"start": 892.09, "end": 892.25, "word": " هاي", "probability": 0.5775146484375}, {"start": 892.25, "end": 892.39, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.71533203125}, {"start": 892.39, "end": 892.73, "word": " pricing", "probability": 0.96533203125}, {"start": 892.73, "end": 893.17, "word": " system", "probability": 0.97265625}, {"start": 893.17, "end": 893.45, "word": " ما", "probability": 0.61083984375}, {"start": 893.45, "end": 893.83, "word": " بيعملوش", "probability": 0.9501953125}, {"start": 893.83, "end": 894.27, "word": " نظام", "probability": 0.818115234375}, {"start": 894.27, "end": 894.79, "word": " التسعير", "probability": 0.99365234375}, {"start": 894.79, "end": 896.21, "word": " عندهم", "probability": 0.6964111328125}, {"start": 896.21, "end": 896.55, "word": " نظام", "probability": 0.9962565104166666}, {"start": 896.55, "end": 896.91, "word": " تسعير", "probability": 0.939453125}, {"start": 896.91, "end": 897.27, "word": " بختلف", "probability": 0.8284505208333334}, {"start": 897.27, "end": 897.75, "word": " تماما", "probability": 0.9925130208333334}, {"start": 897.75, "end": 898.01, "word": " عن", "probability": 0.931640625}, {"start": 898.01, "end": 898.29, "word": " اللي", "probability": 0.918701171875}, {"start": 898.29, "end": 898.45, "word": " احنا", "probability": 0.94189453125}, {"start": 898.45, "end": 898.95, "word": " بنعرفه", "probability": 0.95556640625}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 36, "seek": 92291, "start": 899.67, "end": 922.91, "text": "نظام التسعير الموجود في ال bonds تحديدا ال bonds they use percentage system احفظوها they use percentage system percentage system of what of the bar value percentage of bar value ال bar value اللي هو القيمة الإسمية للسند يعني القيمة هاي اللي انتوا شايفينها this", "tokens": [1863, 19913, 10943, 16712, 3794, 3615, 13546, 9673, 29245, 23328, 8978, 2423, 14713, 6055, 5016, 16254, 28259, 2423, 14713, 436, 764, 9668, 1185, 1975, 5016, 5172, 19913, 2407, 11296, 436, 764, 9668, 1185, 9668, 1185, 295, 437, 295, 264, 2159, 2158, 9668, 295, 2159, 2158, 2423, 2159, 2158, 13672, 1829, 31439, 25062, 32640, 3660, 33688, 38251, 10632, 24976, 3794, 41260, 37495, 22653, 25062, 32640, 3660, 8032, 47302, 13672, 1829, 16472, 2655, 14407, 13412, 995, 33911, 9957, 11296, 341], "avg_logprob": -0.14655854430379747, "compression_ratio": 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percentage", "probability": 0.75}, {"start": 904.37, "end": 904.99, "word": " system", "probability": 0.93310546875}, {"start": 904.99, "end": 905.95, "word": " احفظوها", "probability": 0.936767578125}, {"start": 905.95, "end": 906.63, "word": " they", "probability": 0.5087890625}, {"start": 906.63, "end": 906.89, "word": " use", "probability": 0.8837890625}, {"start": 906.89, "end": 907.31, "word": " percentage", "probability": 0.84228515625}, {"start": 907.31, "end": 907.85, "word": " system", "probability": 0.95654296875}, {"start": 907.85, "end": 911.01, "word": " percentage", "probability": 0.54541015625}, {"start": 911.01, "end": 911.53, "word": " system", "probability": 0.87646484375}, {"start": 911.53, "end": 911.69, "word": " of", "probability": 0.97998046875}, {"start": 911.69, "end": 911.99, "word": " what", "probability": 0.9453125}, {"start": 911.99, "end": 912.49, "word": " of", "probability": 0.619140625}, {"start": 912.49, "end": 912.63, "word": " the", "probability": 0.89453125}, {"start": 912.63, "end": 912.77, "word": " bar", "probability": 0.89013671875}, {"start": 912.77, "end": 913.13, "word": " value", "probability": 0.97802734375}, {"start": 913.13, "end": 913.93, "word": " percentage", "probability": 0.59375}, {"start": 913.93, "end": 914.63, "word": " of", "probability": 0.98193359375}, {"start": 914.63, "end": 915.07, "word": " bar", "probability": 0.93359375}, {"start": 915.07, "end": 915.47, "word": " value", "probability": 0.984375}, {"start": 915.47, "end": 917.95, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.9091796875}, {"start": 917.95, "end": 918.13, "word": " bar", "probability": 0.86669921875}, {"start": 918.13, "end": 918.43, "word": " value", "probability": 0.9892578125}, {"start": 918.43, "end": 918.53, "word": " اللي", "probability": 0.85693359375}, {"start": 918.53, "end": 918.61, "word": " هو", "probability": 0.96533203125}, {"start": 918.61, "end": 918.89, "word": " القيمة", "probability": 0.96240234375}, {"start": 918.89, "end": 919.27, "word": " الإسمية", "probability": 0.8504231770833334}, {"start": 919.27, "end": 919.73, "word": " للسند", "probability": 0.95263671875}, {"start": 919.73, "end": 920.65, "word": " يعني", "probability": 0.939453125}, {"start": 920.65, "end": 921.13, "word": " القيمة", "probability": 0.9720052083333334}, {"start": 921.13, "end": 921.29, "word": " هاي", "probability": 0.575439453125}, {"start": 921.29, "end": 921.41, "word": " اللي", "probability": 0.966552734375}, {"start": 921.41, "end": 921.59, "word": " انتوا", "probability": 0.724365234375}, {"start": 921.59, "end": 922.17, "word": " شايفينها", "probability": 0.992578125}, {"start": 922.17, "end": 922.91, "word": " this", "probability": 0.8583984375}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 37, "seek": 94345, "start": 923.89, "end": 943.45, "text": "is the percentage of the bar value يعني هي نسبة مأوية من القيمة الاسمية so how we convert this into price system كيف نحولها لسعر احنا بنعرفه the investors they don't need to convert this ال investors they don't need because they understand they know this", "tokens": [271, 264, 9668, 295, 264, 2159, 2158, 37495, 22653, 39896, 8717, 35457, 3660, 3714, 10721, 2407, 10632, 9154, 25062, 32640, 3660, 2423, 32277, 2304, 10632, 370, 577, 321, 7620, 341, 666, 3218, 1185, 9122, 33911, 8717, 5016, 12610, 11296, 5296, 3794, 3615, 2288, 1975, 5016, 8315, 44945, 3615, 28480, 3224, 264, 11519, 436, 500, 380, 643, 281, 7620, 341, 2423, 11519, 436, 500, 380, 643, 570, 436, 1223, 436, 458, 341], "avg_logprob": -0.1636284759475125, "compression_ratio": 1.522167487684729, "no_speech_prob": 1.0132789611816406e-06, "words": [{"start": 923.89, "end": 924.29, "word": "is", "probability": 0.70458984375}, {"start": 924.29, "end": 924.65, "word": " the", "probability": 0.853515625}, {"start": 924.65, "end": 925.21, "word": " percentage", "probability": 0.833984375}, {"start": 925.21, "end": 925.95, "word": " of", "probability": 0.9853515625}, {"start": 925.95, "end": 926.25, "word": " the", 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0.939453125}, {"start": 938.27, "end": 938.51, "word": " they", "probability": 0.892578125}, {"start": 938.51, "end": 938.75, "word": " don't", "probability": 0.953857421875}, {"start": 938.75, "end": 939.01, "word": " need", "probability": 0.96240234375}, {"start": 939.01, "end": 939.13, "word": " to", "probability": 0.96728515625}, {"start": 939.13, "end": 939.47, "word": " convert", "probability": 0.92138671875}, {"start": 939.47, "end": 939.91, "word": " this", "probability": 0.95166015625}, {"start": 939.91, "end": 940.69, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.654296875}, {"start": 940.69, "end": 941.05, "word": " investors", "probability": 0.94091796875}, {"start": 941.05, "end": 941.37, "word": " they", "probability": 0.9140625}, {"start": 941.37, "end": 941.55, "word": " don't", "probability": 0.98291015625}, {"start": 941.55, "end": 941.75, "word": " need", "probability": 0.94384765625}, {"start": 941.75, "end": 941.99, "word": " because", "probability": 0.8095703125}, {"start": 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"word": " the", "probability": 0.78955078125}, {"start": 1357.34, "end": 1357.64, "word": " investor", "probability": 0.91064453125}, {"start": 1357.64, "end": 1357.98, "word": " bought", "probability": 0.76611328125}, {"start": 1357.98, "end": 1358.62, "word": " 1000", "probability": 0.65869140625}, {"start": 1358.62, "end": 1359.66, "word": " bonds", "probability": 0.61279296875}, {"start": 1359.66, "end": 1360.66, "word": " اذا", "probability": 0.626708984375}, {"start": 1360.66, "end": 1361.1, "word": " المستثمر", "probability": 0.92138671875}, {"start": 1361.1, "end": 1361.4, "word": " اشترى", "probability": 0.83603515625}, {"start": 1361.4, "end": 1361.62, "word": " 1000", "probability": 0.59228515625}, {"start": 1361.62, "end": 1362.02, "word": " سند", "probability": 0.92431640625}, {"start": 1362.02, "end": 1363.52, "word": " قداش", "probability": 0.6497802734375}, {"start": 1363.52, "end": 1363.84, "word": " بتكون", "probability": 0.6190185546875}, {"start": 1363.84, "end": 1364.44, "word": " ربحه", "probability": 0.97998046875}, {"start": 1364.44, "end": 1366.84, "word": " يعني", "probability": 0.62158203125}, {"start": 1366.84, "end": 1367.1, "word": " يا", "probability": 0.78515625}, {"start": 1367.1, "end": 1367.44, "word": " بنات", "probability": 0.9147135416666666}, {"start": 1367.44, "end": 1367.92, "word": " بالعربي", "probability": 0.942626953125}, {"start": 1367.92, "end": 1369.1, "word": " لو", "probability": 0.84716796875}, {"start": 1369.1, "end": 1369.66, "word": " تاجر", "probability": 0.982421875}, {"start": 1369.66, "end": 1369.82, "word": " في", "probability": 0.93310546875}, {"start": 1369.82, "end": 1370.26, "word": " غزة", "probability": 0.9345703125}, {"start": 1370.26, "end": 1370.98, "word": " اشترى", "probability": 0.916015625}, {"start": 1370.98, "end": 1371.34, "word": " لعب", "probability": 0.9132486979166666}, {"start": 1371.34, "end": 1371.74, "word": " اطفال", "probability": 0.8970947265625}, {"start": 1371.74, "end": 1372.76, "word": " وكل", "probability": 0.767822265625}, {"start": 1372.76, "end": 1373.16, "word": " لعبة", "probability": 0.9856770833333334}, {"start": 1373.16, "end": 1373.48, "word": " بربح", "probability": 0.8134765625}, {"start": 1373.48, "end": 1373.78, "word": " فيها", "probability": 0.983154296875}, {"start": 1373.78, "end": 1374.16, "word": " عشرين", "probability": 0.8406575520833334}, {"start": 1374.16, "end": 1374.52, "word": " شكل", "probability": 0.74755859375}, {"start": 1374.52, "end": 1375.0, "word": " لو", "probability": 0.87744140625}, {"start": 1375.0, "end": 1375.4, "word": " اشترى", "probability": 0.94990234375}, {"start": 1375.4, "end": 1375.64, "word": " الف", "probability": 0.6484375}, {"start": 1375.64, "end": 1375.86, "word": " لعبة", "probability": 0.9920247395833334}, {"start": 1375.86, "end": 1376.14, "word": " قداش", "probability": 0.95703125}, {"start": 1376.14, "end": 1376.52, "word": " بربح", "probability": 0.9720052083333334}, {"start": 1376.52, "end": 1377.08, "word": " هذا", "probability": 0.60986328125}, {"start": 1377.08, "end": 1377.22, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.861328125}, {"start": 1377.22, "end": 1377.38, "word": " bond", "probability": 0.88232421875}, {"start": 1377.38, "end": 1377.9, "word": " prices", "probability": 0.701171875}, {"start": 1377.9, "end": 1379.14, "word": " هذا", "probability": 0.73193359375}, {"start": 1379.14, "end": 1379.32, "word": " هو", "probability": 0.98583984375}, {"start": 1379.32, "end": 1379.44, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.97265625}, {"start": 1379.44, "end": 1379.62, "word": " bond", "probability": 0.95068359375}, {"start": 1379.62, "end": 1380.1, "word": " prices", "probability": 0.89111328125}, {"start": 1380.1, "end": 1381.3, "word": " the", "probability": 0.583984375}, {"start": 1381.3, "end": 1381.68, "word": " next", "probability": 0.95849609375}, {"start": 1381.68, "end": 1382.16, "word": " meeting", "probability": 0.92919921875}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 54, "seek": 138574, "start": 1384.44, "end": 1385.74, "text": "هنحكي على Stock Markets", "tokens": [3224, 1863, 5016, 4117, 1829, 15844, 17857, 3934, 1385], "avg_logprob": -0.33261719942092893, "compression_ratio": 0.775, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 1384.44, "end": 1384.92, "word": "هنحكي", "probability": 0.81875}, {"start": 1384.92, "end": 1385.0, "word": " على", "probability": 0.4384765625}, {"start": 1385.0, "end": 1385.2, "word": " Stock", "probability": 0.5703125}, {"start": 1385.2, "end": 1385.74, "word": " Markets", "probability": 0.7291259765625}], "temperature": 1.0}], "language": "ar", "language_probability": 1.0, "duration": 1386.533125, "duration_after_vad": 1308.026249999998}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/DL94jO4H2JM.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/DL94jO4H2JM.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..a2d99e443337ef4c45a2446698f275cb7897ed44
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/DL94jO4H2JM.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,2067 @@
+1
+00:00:22,050 --> 00:00:27,550
+طيب بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم في المحاضرة الماضية كنا نحكي
+
+2
+00:00:27,550 --> 00:00:32,110
+عن ال .. إذا كانت ال observation .. if the
+
+3
+00:00:32,110 --> 00:00:35,130
+observation is not following the normal distribution
+
+4
+00:00:35,130 --> 00:00:40,490
+إذا كانت البيانات ما بتتبعش التوزيع الطبيعي okay so
+
+5
+00:00:40,490 --> 00:00:46,030
+how we know the data is not following the normal
+
+6
+00:00:46,030 --> 00:00:50,300
+distribution? We check the skewness (skew) and we ..
+
+7
+00:00:50,300 --> 00:00:54,660
+we check the kurtosis. احنا بنعمل check على ال ..
+
+8
+00:00:54,660 --> 00:00:59,860
+الالتواء و على التفلطح بيسموه ال skew أو skewness و ال
+
+9
+00:00:59,860 --> 00:01:05,780
+.. و ال kurtosis زي ما احنا شوفنا المرة الفاتة و
+
+10
+00:01:05,780 --> 00:01:06,960
+احنا رسمنا مع بعض
+
+11
+00:01:14,280 --> 00:01:19,340
+Okay زي ما تشوف now if you look at this black one
+
+12
+00:01:19,340 --> 00:01:25,120
+so it's skewed to the right if you look at the
+
+13
+00:01:25,120 --> 00:01:32,520
+blue one it's skewed to the left so you have to
+
+14
+00:01:32,520 --> 00:01:38,680
+think on three things in skewness if it's skewed
+
+15
+00:01:40,320 --> 00:01:45,340
+وإذا ال data is 0 فهذا يعني تحقيقنا لنمو عادي
+
+16
+00:01:45,340 --> 00:01:56,400
+إذا ال skew هو موجب وهو أكبر من 0 فال data هو
+
+17
+00:01:56,400 --> 00:02:02,380
+skewed إلى اليسار وإذا
+
+18
+00:02:02,380 --> 00:02:06,900
+ال skew هو سالب إلى اليسار
+
+19
+00:02:08,690 --> 00:02:14,230
+إذا كانت على اليسار، يعني أن المستثمرين يتجنبون
+
+20
+00:02:14,230 --> 00:02:20,570
+المخاطر، يتجنبون المخاطر
+
+21
+00:02:20,570 --> 00:02:25,090
+إذا كانت تتجنب على اليسار، يعني أن المستثمرين
+
+22
+00:02:25,090 --> 00:02:33,250
+يتجنبون المخاطر، يتجنبون المخاطر، يتجنبون المخاطر، يتجنبون
+
+23
+00:02:33,250 --> 00:02:33,410
+المخاطر، يتجنبون المخاطر، يتجنبون المخاطر، يتجنبون المخاطر
+
+24
+00:02:33,410 --> 00:02:33,530
+يتجنبون المخاطر، يتجنبون المخاطر، يتجنبون المخاطر، يتجنبون
+
+25
+00:02:33,530 --> 00:02:33,550
+المخاطر، يتجنبون المخاطر، يتجنبون المخاطر، يتجنبون المخاطر
+
+26
+00:02:33,550 --> 00:02:35,750
+يتجنبون المخاطر، يتجنبون المخاطر، يتجنبون المخاطر، يتجنبون
+
+27
+00:02:35,750 --> 00:02:41,100
+المخاطر. المشكلة هي عندما تكون الملاحظة مرسومة إلى
+
+28
+00:02:41,100 --> 00:02:47,500
+اليسار لأن ما يعنيه .. انظر .. انظر هنا .. فقط ..
+
+29
+00:02:47,500 --> 00:02:53,940
+يعني أننا لدينا عدد .. لدينا البيانات مثل هذه ..
+
+30
+00:02:53,940 --> 00:02:58,660
+لذلك إذا كنت نتخيل البيانات .. إذا كنا نتخيل عدد
+
+31
+00:02:58,660 --> 00:03:03,700
+هذا البيانات .. عددها أو الوسط يجب أن يكون موجود
+
+32
+00:03:03,700 --> 00:03:08,720
+في الوسط. Okay should be located in the middle for
+
+33
+00:03:08,720 --> 00:03:14,760
+instance take this example here if you have like
+
+34
+00:03:14,760 --> 00:03:23,940
+this observation 9% 10% or let's say 12% this is R
+
+35
+00:03:23,940 --> 00:03:30,960
+okay إذا أخذنا بيانات ل R لليوم الأول for instance
+
+36
+00:03:30,960 --> 00:03:38,560
+لليوم الثاني الثالث الرابع الخامس السادس بيانات R
+
+37
+00:03:38,560 --> 00:03:42,500
+اللي هو ال R ال expected return إذا أخذنا ال R أو
+
+38
+00:03:42,500 --> 00:03:49,560
+ال daily return أخذنا 12% أو for instance 11% 10%
+
+39
+00:03:49,560 --> 00:03:55,930
+7% 6% if we calculate the average إذا قمنا بحساب
+
+40
+00:03:55,930 --> 00:04:03,390
+مجموع هذا العدد أو مجموع العائد هو 12 plus 11 plus 10
+
+41
+00:04:03,390 --> 00:04:11,830
+plus 9 plus 7 plus 6 divided by 1 2 3 4 5 6 مقسومة
+
+42
+00:04:11,830 --> 00:04:18,030
+على 6 احسبوها كم تطلع؟ إذا كان لدينا ملاحظات مثل
+
+43
+00:04:18,030 --> 00:04:18,330
+هذه؟
+
+44
+00:04:24,020 --> 00:04:29,080
+سرعة القلات دائماً تكون twelve
+
+45
+00:04:29,080 --> 00:04:36,540
+percent eleven nine seven and finally six six
+
+46
+00:04:36,540 --> 00:04:42,840
+percent nine point one okay so the arithmetic or
+
+47
+00:04:42,840 --> 00:04:45,800
+the average is nine point one look at here so nine
+
+48
+00:04:45,800 --> 00:04:53,860
+point one is located here or somewhere here. مع ذلك
+
+49
+00:04:53,860 --> 00:05:00,220
+يعني أن الملاحظة أو البيانات أو عدد البيانات يكون
+
+50
+00:05:00,220 --> 00:05:05,440
+بين 9 و 10 وهو حوالي نصف البيانات أو تقسيم
+
+51
+00:05:05,440 --> 00:05:12,040
+البيانات إلى جزئين أساسيين، هذا يكون حوالي جزئين
+
+52
+00:05:12,040 --> 00:05:19,000
+كهذا، كما قلت إن هذا الجزء الصحيح هو مظهر اليسار
+
+53
+00:05:19,000 --> 00:05:24,100
+الذي يعني أن البيانات تتبع التوزيع الطبيعي لكن
+
+54
+00:05:24,100 --> 00:05:30,540
+المشكلة هي إذا كان لدينا قيم أعظم إذا كان لدينا
+
+55
+00:05:30,540 --> 00:05:34,960
+قيم أعظم أو ما يسمونه الـ outliers إذا كان لدينا
+
+56
+00:05:34,960 --> 00:05:38,720
+outliers على سبيل المثال دعونا نضيف شيء إلى هذه
+
+57
+00:05:38,720 --> 00:05:45,150
+البيانات. إذا كان لدينا الخطر هو مثلًا يوم واحد نقوم
+
+58
+00:05:45,150 --> 00:05:57,250
+بتسجيل حوالي 400% و 300% ما نشاهده في هذا البرنامج
+
+59
+00:05:57,250 --> 00:05:59,830
+إذا قمنا بتسجيل هذه المعلومات لدينا هذه المعلومات
+
+60
+00:05:59,830 --> 00:06:05,030
+الآن لدينا هذه المعلومات الآن و يبدو مثلًا هذا
+
+61
+00:06:05,030 --> 00:06:10,910
+المعلومات يبدو مثلًا هذا. هذا الاختلاف الكبير بين
+
+62
+00:06:10,910 --> 00:06:13,550
+الاثنين الملاحظات والمقالات المختلفة من الملاحظات
+
+63
+00:06:13,550 --> 00:06:19,530
+هذا يسمى قيم متطرفة أو أقل قيم أخرى أو أقل قيم
+
+64
+00:06:19,530 --> 00:06:27,030
+أخرى نسميهم قيم متطرفة أو أقل قيم أخرى نسميهم قيم
+
+65
+00:06:27,030 --> 00:06:27,270
+متطرفة نسميهم قيم متطرفة نسميهم قيم متطرفة نسميهم قيم
+
+66
+00:06:27,270 --> 00:06:27,390
+متطرفة نسميهم قيم متطرفة نسميهم قيم متطرفة نسميهم قيم
+
+67
+00:06:27,390 --> 00:06:27,850
+متطرفة نسميهم قيم متطرفة نسميهم قيم متطرفة نسميهم قيم
+
+68
+00:06:27,850 --> 00:06:29,840
+متطرفة نسميهم قيم متطرفة نسميهم. نعيدوا احتساب ال
+
+69
+00:06:29,840 --> 00:06:35,300
+average. هنعيد احتساب ال average 400 plus 300 plus
+
+70
+00:06:35,300 --> 00:06:41,580
+12 plus 11 plus 10 plus 9 plus 7 plus 6 divided by
+
+71
+00:06:41,580 --> 00:06:47,520
+8 احسبوا ال average. ال average will be in some
+
+72
+00:06:47,520 --> 00:06:55,880
+area in here. ال average هيكون في .. احسبوا ال
+
+73
+00:06:55,880 --> 00:06:56,360
+average now
+
+74
+00:07:01,030 --> 00:07:12,910
+كم طلع؟ 94.3 you see so it is 94.3 so now the
+
+75
+00:07:12,910 --> 00:07:16,750
+average now the average what's what's happened
+
+76
+00:07:16,750 --> 00:07:23,570
+with the data؟ ايش اللي صار في البيانات؟ because yes
+
+77
+00:07:23,570 --> 00:07:27,570
+فينا بيانات شاذة فالبيانات الشاذة عملت pulling up
+
+78
+00:07:28,540 --> 00:07:31,380
+pulling the data to the top or pulling the average
+
+79
+00:07:31,380 --> 00:07:35,580
+to the top يعني هلأ صار ال average is pulling to
+
+80
+00:07:35,580 --> 00:07:39,700
+the top okay
+
+81
+00:07:39,700 --> 00:07:46,160
+صار في تحيز or there is a bias. صار عندي ايه؟ bias
+
+82
+00:07:46,160 --> 00:07:51,140
+in this case the positive look at here the
+
+83
+00:07:51,140 --> 00:07:57,740
+positive is greater than the negative. القيم المتطرفة
+
+84
+00:07:57,740 --> 00:08:01,000
+الموجبة أكثر من القيم المتطرفة السالبة we
+
+85
+00:08:01,000 --> 00:08:04,880
+don't have negative outliers here. فاللي صار أنه
+
+86
+00:08:04,880 --> 00:08:08,640
+صار عندي التواء لليمين هيكون الشكل تبعوا للشكل
+
+87
+00:08:08,640 --> 00:08:16,140
+هيكون الشكل هيك هيكون في to the right to the right
+
+88
+00:08:16,140 --> 00:08:18,800
+why to the right because we have extreme values
+
+89
+00:08:18,800 --> 00:08:24,020
+فال average ال average is move to the right. ال
+
+90
+00:08:24,020 --> 00:08:27,130
+average هيروح على ال right لأن هنا فينا الاربعماية
+
+91
+00:08:27,130 --> 00:08:34,310
+والتلاتماية هم outliers so the outliers try to move
+
+92
+00:08:34,310 --> 00:08:38,550
+the average to the right side هياخد ال average لل
+
+93
+00:08:38,550 --> 00:08:44,010
+right side okay this
+
+94
+00:08:44,010 --> 00:08:51,250
+is why .. this is why we have positive skew and
+
+95
+00:08:51,250 --> 00:08:53,980
+the opposite if we take another example here. إذا
+
+96
+00:08:53,980 --> 00:09:00,120
+أخذنا نفس المثال و
+
+97
+00:09:00,120 --> 00:09:04,320
+خلينا القيام like this شوفوا القيام like this
+
+98
+00:09:04,320 --> 00:09:10,600
+they say twelve percent eleven ten nine seven six
+
+99
+00:09:10,600 --> 00:09:21,940
+and we have here like point five and minus okay
+
+100
+00:09:23,590 --> 00:09:31,290
+minus fifteen and minus thirty. أخذنا القيام هدول
+
+101
+00:09:31,290 --> 00:09:38,370
+فشوفوا عكس الحالة هذه بيكون ال data like this. ال
+
+102
+00:09:38,370 --> 00:09:44,810
+average like this then it's like this. طب ال
+
+103
+00:09:44,810 --> 00:09:49,390
+outliers وين تحت ولا فوق؟ تحت. so it's negative لما
+
+104
+00:09:49,390 --> 00:09:54,020
+بيكون the outliers it means if the average is here
+
+105
+00:09:54,020 --> 00:10:01,400
+so the outliers try to push it down. bowling يعني
+
+106
+00:10:01,400 --> 00:10:06,160
+يسحب bowling up pushing down فهيصير ال average
+
+107
+00:10:06,160 --> 00:10:08,840
+somewhere هنا احسبوا الكلام ده شوفوا واحد و اتنين
+
+108
+00:10:08,840 --> 00:10:17,780
+طيب يعني هتكون بمكان مهم مظبوط. the average should
+
+109
+00:10:17,780 --> 00:10:21,780
+be somewhere in here but the average is moved down
+
+110
+00:10:21,780 --> 00:10:27,500
+because the data is skewed to the left. حيكون شكل
+
+111
+00:10:27,500 --> 00:10:39,100
+ال .. شكل ال .. شكله هيك تقريباً to
+
+112
+00:10:39,100 --> 00:10:42,360
+the left. فبكون هدول ال outliers minus fifteen
+
+113
+00:10:42,360 --> 00:10:49,810
+minus thirty is located somewhere in here. Okay, so
+
+114
+00:10:49,810 --> 00:10:54,890
+because there is no symmetry with the data,
+
+115
+00:10:55,090 --> 00:10:58,430
+generally speaking, most people in statistics they
+
+116
+00:10:58,430 --> 00:11:02,690
+ignore these things, they ignore this, الناس كلهم
+
+117
+00:11:02,690 --> 00:11:07,070
+بيتجاهلوهم، يعني بيتجاهلوهم، but in finance we
+
+118
+00:11:07,070 --> 00:11:11,350
+should consider them. In the first case look at
+
+119
+00:11:11,350 --> 00:11:18,000
+here, in this one when the .. when the data .. when
+
+120
+00:11:18,000 --> 00:11:23,180
+the data is positive when we have outliers greater
+
+121
+00:11:23,180 --> 00:11:27,900
+than the average it means we have a positive skew
+
+122
+00:11:27,900 --> 00:11:32,100
+but here we have negative skew and because we have
+
+123
+00:11:32,100 --> 00:11:37,680
+positive skew it means لأنه إذا كان عندنا skew ما
+
+124
+00:11:37,680 --> 00:11:41,200
+أنت عارف .. هيعرفنا ال skew يعني هالتواء صح؟ إذا
+
+125
+00:11:41,200 --> 00:11:47,120
+كانت موجب positive بكون عندي over estimate و إذا 
+
+126
+00:11:47,120 --> 00:11:54,220
+كانت negative under estimate طيب this is the
+
+127
+00:11:54,220 --> 00:11:58,940
+importance of skew هذا أهمية الـ skew نيجي نحكي عن
+
+128
+00:11:58,940 --> 00:12:06,280
+الـ cortices على الـ cortices خلينا نذكركم بس
+
+129
+00:12:06,280 --> 00:12:11,220
+بالقانون تبع الـ skew how to calculate the skew بس
+
+130
+00:12:11,220 --> 00:12:20,580
+يعني القانون بتعرفوا أنه Q is equal R minus R bar
+
+131
+00:12:20,580 --> 00:12:29,160
+okay cubed divided by sigma cubed هذا هو الـ raise
+
+132
+00:12:29,160 --> 00:12:34,460
+to the power three الكورتوسيز ايش بيقيس الكورتوسيز
+
+133
+00:12:34,460 --> 00:12:38,500
+الكورتوسيز is measure to what extent our data is
+
+134
+00:12:38,500 --> 00:12:43,030
+flat يعني الـ I درجة بيكون الـ بيانات تبعتنا flat
+
+135
+00:12:43,030 --> 00:12:55,930
+ناخد نتالي لو
+
+136
+00:12:55,930 --> 00:13:03,270
+شوفنا احنا هذا
+
+137
+00:13:03,270 --> 00:13:06,430
+ايش رأيكوا؟ هذا normal distribution ولا ايش؟ this
+
+138
+00:13:06,430 --> 00:13:07,370
+is normal distribution
+
+139
+00:13:11,120 --> 00:13:18,920
+هذا normal distribution توزيع طبيعي هذا
+
+140
+00:13:18,920 --> 00:13:24,980
+فيه توزيع طبيعي why because the right side is
+
+141
+00:13:24,980 --> 00:13:27,840
+approximately equal to the left side يعني الجانب
+
+142
+00:13:27,840 --> 00:13:34,160
+اليمين تقريبا يشبه الجانب الشمال okay طيب so the
+
+143
+00:13:34,160 --> 00:13:41,080
+thing is now the thing is the thing is now إذا ننظر
+
+144
+00:13:41,080 --> 00:13:44,980
+إلى الجانب اليسار هو تقريبًا يقل الجانب اليسار،
+
+145
+00:13:44,980 --> 00:13:50,140
+إذا كان لدينا كورتوسيه، يعني أن البيانات أكتر
+
+146
+00:13:50,140 --> 00:13:54,500
+مطمئنة من المشاركة الطبيعية، يبدو هكذا
+
+147
+00:14:14,330 --> 00:14:17,730
+So the data .. this is .. this one this means we
+
+148
+00:14:17,730 --> 00:14:20,490
+have a very narrow mean .. mean and the data is
+
+149
+00:14:20,490 --> 00:14:26,830
+flat is scattered in the left and scattered in the
+
+150
+00:14:26,830 --> 00:14:29,390
+.. in the right or in the right and in the left if
+
+151
+00:14:29,390 --> 00:14:35,750
+you see here there is a space between this line
+
+152
+00:14:35,750 --> 00:14:39,030
+with this line but with this one there is .. there
+
+153
+00:14:39,030 --> 00:14:43,430
+is a limit يعني إذا إحنا بناحي البيانات موجودة هون
+
+154
+00:14:46,170 --> 00:14:53,130
+هنجيب بالـ Cortices أن
+
+155
+00:14:53,130 --> 00:14:57,050
+البيانات تأخذ بعض المكان هنا و بعض المكان هنا
+
+156
+00:14:57,050 --> 00:15:04,630
+هنلاقي بيانات فوق و لاتحت و في الوسط كيف نحسب الـ
+
+157
+00:15:04,630 --> 00:15:08,530
+Cortices كيف احنا بنحسب الـ Cortices The Cortices
+
+158
+00:15:08,530 --> 00:15:20,920
+is equal to R minus R bar raise to the power four raise
+
+159
+00:15:20,920 --> 00:15:21,760
+to the power four raise to the power four raise to the power
+
+160
+00:15:21,760 --> 00:15:22,760
+four raise to the power four raise to the power four
+
+161
+00:15:22,760 --> 00:15:29,180
+four raise to the power four raise to the power four raise to
+
+162
+00:15:29,180 --> 00:15:32,180
+the power four raise to the power four raise to the power four raise
+
+163
+00:15:32,180 --> 00:15:33,860
+to the power four raise to the power four raise to the power
+
+164
+00:15:33,860 --> 00:15:41,320
+four raise to the power four raise
+
+165
+00:15:41,320 --> 00:15:46,930
+لحظة يا تيه إذا قمنا بالتخيل هذا الجانب بشكل
+
+166
+00:15:46,930 --> 00:15:51,230
+مختلف و إذا كانت البيانات تتبع اتجارة عادية فهذا
+
+167
+00:15:51,230 --> 00:15:55,790
+يجب أن يكون ثلاثة إذا كانت النتيجة ثلاثة ثلاثة أقل
+
+168
+00:15:55,790 --> 00:16:00,010
+ثلاثة ثم ننتهي بزيرولذلك إذا كانت النتيجة صحيحة
+
+169
+00:16:00,010 --> 00:16:06,870
+إذا كانت النتيجة صحيحة إذا كانت النتيجة صحيحة إذا
+
+170
+00:16:06,870 --> 00:16:07,170
+كانت النتيجة صحيحة إذا كانت النتيجة صحيحة إذا كانت
+
+171
+00:16:07,170 --> 00:16:08,990
+النتيجة صحيحة إذا كانت النتيجة صحيحة إذا كانت
+
+172
+00:16:08,990 --> 00:16:09,610
+النتيجة صحيحة إذا كانت النتيجة صحيحة إذا كانت
+
+173
+00:16:09,610 --> 00:16:11,190
+النتيجة صحيحة إذا كانت النتيجة صحيحة إذا كانت
+
+174
+00:16:11,190 --> 00:16:13,210
+النتيجة صحيحة إذا كانت النتيجة صحيحة إذا كانت
+
+175
+00:16:13,210 --> 00:16:18,530
+النتيجة صحيحة إذا كانت النتيجة صحيحة إذا كانت
+
+176
+00:16:18,530 --> 00:16:23,510
+النتيجة صحيحة إذا 
+
+177
+00:16:23,510 --> 00:16:27,330
+كانت
+
+178
+00:16:27,330 --> 00:16:30,840
+النتيجة صحيحة هي تطلع على المعادلة المعادلة فيها
+
+179
+00:16:30,840 --> 00:16:34,500
+إلها شقين هذه ناقص تلاتة إذا طلع هذا الجواب تلاتة
+
+180
+00:16:34,500 --> 00:16:38,280
+تلاتة ناقص تلاتة so it's equal zero إذا كان zero
+
+181
+00:16:38,280 --> 00:16:43,440
+بيكون هذا شوف هذه بيكون zero لأن هاي touch the
+
+182
+00:16:43,440 --> 00:16:47,120
+line and this is touch the line but if it is
+
+183
+00:16:47,120 --> 00:16:51,400
+greater than three شوف إذا كان هذا جوابي greater
+
+184
+00:16:51,400 --> 00:16:55,440
+than three then it's greater than zero so we have
+
+185
+00:16:55,440 --> 00:16:59,070
+cortices Okay, so this is the problem.
+
+186
+00:17:02,490 --> 00:17:10,370
+Now, again the Skew and Cortices help the
+
+187
+00:17:10,370 --> 00:17:12,690
+researcher and help financial people or investors
+
+188
+00:17:12,690 --> 00:17:17,470
+to mention the data are normally distributed or
+
+189
+00:17:17,470 --> 00:17:22,230
+not. إذا كانت البيانات تبعتهم موزعة توزيع طبيعي
+
+190
+00:17:22,230 --> 00:17:23,090
+ولا لأ؟
+
+191
+00:17:27,160 --> 00:17:30,700
+الـ cortices بيبنوا like this طلع البيانات scattered
+
+192
+00:17:30,700 --> 00:17:34,140
+بيكون في outliers in the top and outliers in the
+
+193
+00:17:34,140 --> 00:17:39,280
+bottom and we have something in the middle فبتكون
+
+194
+00:17:39,280 --> 00:17:43,700
+في زي πاي باي observation أو binomial بتكونش
+
+195
+00:17:43,700 --> 00:17:46,600
+البيانات is focused on the average يعني زي ما انت
+
+196
+00:17:46,600 --> 00:17:51,740
+شايفها هان in this one red one the most of our
+
+197
+00:17:51,740 --> 00:17:57,200
+data look at here most of our data موجودة في مكان
+
+198
+00:17:57,200 --> 00:18:03,100
+ما هنا وهو حوالي 68% من البيانات الموجودة هنا ولكن
+
+199
+00:18:03,100 --> 00:18:09,320
+إذا كنت تنظر إلى الـ blue one حوالي 30% من
+
+200
+00:18:09,320 --> 00:18:12,800
+بياناتنا موجودة في الأعلى أو موجودة في الـ ..
+
+201
+00:18:12,800 --> 00:18:18,700
+والباقية من بياناتنا موجودة في الخارج ممكننا أن
+
+202
+00:18:18,700 --> 00:18:23,600
+نلاحظ مثل هذا إذا أردنا لدينا بيانات مثل هذه و
+
+203
+00:18:23,600 --> 00:18:28,520
+لدينا بيانات مثل هذه و لدينا مصادر مثل هذه حسنا اذا
+
+204
+00:18:28,520 --> 00:18:36,000
+ماهي عاملة؟ عاملة مخططة لهم لأن حسنا ربما العاملة
+
+205
+00:18:36,000 --> 00:18:43,300
+في هنا لذا لدينا شيء هنا و لدينا شيء هنا لذلك إذا
+
+206
+00:18:43,300 --> 00:18:49,600
+قمنا بترتيب هذا في مقالة ننتهي بمقالة بلو Okay,
+
+207
+00:18:50,140 --> 00:18:53,060
+this is .. it's like this has two wings, two big
+
+208
+00:18:53,060 --> 00:18:57,460
+wings يعني هناخد for instance look at here two big
+
+209
+00:18:57,460 --> 00:19:02,220
+wings الناس
+
+210
+00:19:02,220 --> 00:19:05,720
+.. بعض الناس مش كتير في الـ statistics so بتاع
+
+211
+00:19:05,720 --> 00:19:10,020
+they're ignoring the outlines فاحنا بالنسبة لل
+
+212
+00:19:10,020 --> 00:19:14,540
+finance outlines are important why outlines are
+
+213
+00:19:14,540 --> 00:19:16,820
+important because indicate something in finance
+
+214
+00:19:17,510 --> 00:19:19,830
+الناس تتعامل بـ Overestimation عندما تكون لديها
+
+215
+00:19:19,830 --> 00:19:23,310
+إتجار مفيد والناس تتعامل بـ Underestimate Risk
+
+216
+00:19:23,310 --> 00:19:30,470
+عندما تكون لديها إتجار مفيد حسنا
+
+217
+00:19:30,470 --> 00:19:34,270
+الآن
+
+218
+00:19:34,270 --> 00:19:42,370
+دعونا نتحدث عن إتجار مفقود وهو مهم أيضا في
+
+219
+00:19:42,370 --> 00:19:50,930
+الوزيارة لأن of this look at here as I said we have
+
+220
+00:19:50,930 --> 00:19:55,530
+data like this this is normal and then we have
+
+221
+00:19:55,530 --> 00:20:01,050
+outliers like this إذا احنا أخدنا observations R
+
+222
+00:20:01,050 --> 00:20:05,530
+زي هيك مع الكلام هدول الـ average بيكون somewhere
+
+223
+00:20:05,530 --> 00:20:09,050
+هنا because of this outliers maybe the average
+
+224
+00:20:09,050 --> 00:20:14,230
+will go down هيكون جريب لهدول Okay so what the
+
+225
+00:20:14,230 --> 00:20:18,390
+problem then is this positive skew or negative
+
+226
+00:20:18,390 --> 00:20:23,070
+okay this positive or negative why it is negative
+
+227
+00:20:23,070 --> 00:20:27,070
+because لأنه هيسحبوه من التحت okay so we have
+
+228
+00:20:27,070 --> 00:20:33,150
+negative and if we draw the negative so
+
+229
+00:20:33,150 --> 00:20:37,230
+this is this is a negative skew to the right to
+
+230
+00:20:37,230 --> 00:20:44,670
+the left وإذا قمت بإرسالهم هنا، فسنلاحظ أن البيانات
+
+231
+00:20:44,670 --> 00:20:53,410
+هنا ونلاحظ ما يوجد هنا، الـ outliers، حسنًا؟
+
+232
+00:20:53,410 --> 00:20:59,790
+الآن هذه الـ outliers، لأنها في الجانات المفارقة،
+
+233
+00:20:59,790 --> 00:21:06,850
+نسميها قيمة في خطر be careful we write it values at
+
+234
+00:21:06,850 --> 00:21:10,650
+risk we are not writing like this this is var
+
+235
+00:21:10,650 --> 00:21:13,950
+which is variance and this is values at risk
+
+236
+00:21:13,950 --> 00:21:19,930
+values at risk what it means values at risk values
+
+237
+00:21:19,930 --> 00:21:26,370
+at risk it means قيم معرضة للخطر بالظبط قيم معرضة
+
+238
+00:21:26,370 --> 00:21:31,990
+للخطر يعني لو جينا احنا رصدنا درجات الطلاب لا يا
+
+239
+00:21:31,990 --> 00:21:35,010
+بابا مش الـ variance احنا حكينا look be careful
+
+240
+00:21:35,010 --> 00:21:38,150
+this is not not variance هذا مش whole variance
+
+241
+00:21:38,150 --> 00:21:44,970
+this is values at risk زي ما حكت انه قيم معرضة
+
+242
+00:21:44,970 --> 00:21:53,570
+للخطر values at risk values at risk قيم معرضة
+
+243
+00:21:53,570 --> 00:21:58,250
+للخطر طيب هلا مثلا أجينا احنا أخدنا درجات الطلاب
+
+244
+00:21:59,240 --> 00:22:04,140
+لجينا الطلاب في تسعين تمانين خمسين سبعين ستين ف الـ
+
+245
+00:22:04,140 --> 00:22:07,980
+values at risk هي الـ values الـ extreme negative
+
+246
+00:22:07,980 --> 00:22:14,900
+يعني أخدنا درجة الطلاب لجينا فينا تسعين خمس و
+
+247
+00:22:14,900 --> 00:22:21,460
+تسعين تمانين خمس و تمانين سبعين تسعة و ستين سبعين
+
+248
+00:22:21,460 --> 00:22:25,500
+خمس و تمانين okay و بعدين لجينا عشرين عشرة خمس و
+
+249
+00:22:25,500 --> 00:22:30,760
+أستعشسجلنا درجة الطلاب and we found like this
+
+250
+00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:34,000
+لقينا درجات الطلاب where is the values at risk
+
+251
+00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:39,940
+هدول هما الـ 20, 10, 15 هدول values at risk هدول
+
+252
+00:22:39,940 --> 00:22:44,260
+values at risk will move the will move the average
+
+253
+00:22:44,260 --> 00:22:49,160
+down وبالتالي الـ average هيصير misleading the
+
+254
+00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:52,460
+problem is now from the investment point of view
+
+255
+00:22:52,460 --> 00:22:56,650
+من وجهة نظر المستثمرين to what extent these people
+
+256
+00:22:56,650 --> 00:23:02,610
+are at risk؟ لأي درجة أن هدول الـ people في خطر؟
+
+257
+00:23:02,610 --> 00:23:07,010
+لأي درجة هدول الطلاب عندهم .. okay let's things in
+
+258
+00:23:07,010 --> 00:23:13,870
+different ways values at risk measures worst loss
+
+259
+00:23:13,870 --> 00:23:21,570
+أسوأ خسارة يعني بنيجي و بنقول احنا ما هي أسوأ
+
+260
+00:23:21,570 --> 00:23:28,470
+خسارة ممكن نحصل عليها بالفصل أسوأ نتيجة يعني
+
+261
+00:23:28,470 --> 00:23:35,750
+لأ يعني كم طالب يرسب بنيجي نقول أسوأ نتيجة ممكن
+
+262
+00:23:35,750 --> 00:23:42,350
+نحصل عليها يعني جداش أن عدد طلاب مثلا ستين بنقول
+
+263
+00:23:42,350 --> 00:23:46,650
+احنا حسب الحسابات تبعنا أسوأ نتيجة ممكن نحصل عليها
+
+264
+00:23:46,650 --> 00:23:53,050
+أنه يرسب ثلاثة في المئة أو بطريقة ثانية أسوأ نتيجة
+
+265
+00:23:54,240 --> 00:24:00,240
+نحصل عليها أنه ما تزدش الخسارة بتاعتنا عن 3% this
+
+266
+00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:05,220
+is fine or in other words أو بطريقة أخرى نقول أسوأ
+
+267
+00:24:05,220 --> 00:24:11,160
+نتيجة أنه احنا نحصل عليها أنه النجاح يكون أقل من
+
+268
+00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:17,640
+97% النجاح يكون أقل من 97% نفس الـ 3% نفس الفكرة
+
+269
+00:24:17,640 --> 00:24:24,360
+يعني احنا قلنا أو النجاح ما يزدش عن 97% فبكون لما
+
+270
+00:24:24,360 --> 00:24:28,960
+أقول النجاح ما يزدش عن 97% it means أن أسوأ خسارة
+
+271
+00:24:28,960 --> 00:24:33,400
+ممكن نحصل عليها 3% from investment point of view
+
+272
+00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:38,580
+ممكن من وجهة نظر الاستثمار okay what is the worst
+
+273
+00:24:38,580 --> 00:24:45,740
+loss ما هي أسوأ خسارة ممكن نحصل عليها so we need
+
+274
+00:24:45,740 --> 00:24:49,060
+to calculate values at risk عشان نحصل على أسوأ
+
+275
+00:24:49,060 --> 00:24:52,700
+خسارة there are three methods to calculate values
+
+276
+00:24:52,700 --> 00:24:58,130
+at risk in your handbook is only one method في
+
+277
+00:24:58,130 --> 00:25:03,870
+الكتاب تبعك موجود بس methods واحدة okay and this
+
+278
+00:25:03,870 --> 00:25:06,490
+method is called Monte Carlo method مش موجودة
+
+279
+00:25:06,490 --> 00:25:09,630
+بالكتاب أن اسمها Monte Carlo لكن أنا بقولكوا إياها
+
+280
+00:25:09,630 --> 00:25:13,530
+it is Monte Carlo فممكن بالـ corrections و لا بالصح
+
+281
+00:25:13,530 --> 00:25:15,490
+و الغلط تقولوا والله يا عزيزي مش موجودة بالكتاب no
+
+282
+00:25:15,490 --> 00:25:19,370
+I'm telling you now this method is Monte Carlo
+
+283
+00:25:23,640 --> 00:25:29,100
+اسم الطريقة اسمها Monte Carlo okay في Monte Carlo
+
+284
+00:25:29,100 --> 00:25:32,580
+في إذاعة اسمها Monte Carlo في دراسة اسمها Monte
+
+285
+00:25:32,580 --> 00:25:39,820
+Carlo so the normal so the values at risk is equal
+
+286
+00:25:39,820 --> 00:25:52,890
+to mu which is the average minus z times sigma و
+
+287
+00:25:52,890 --> 00:25:58,530
+سنشرح ماذا يعني Z يعني
+
+288
+00:25:58,530 --> 00:26:02,950
+ميو
+
+289
+00:26:02,950 --> 00:26:11,090
+أو عامل مانوس سيجما زد مانوس زد يعني عامل عامل
+
+290
+00:26:11,090 --> 00:26:15,150
+عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل
+
+291
+00:26:15,150 --> 00:26:16,530
+عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل
+
+292
+00:26:16,530 --> 00:26:17,790
+عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل
+
+293
+00:26:17,790 --> 00:26:17,810
+عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل
+
+294
+00:26:21,460 --> 00:26:24,720
+the critical value اللي هو القيمة الحرجة بتسميها
+
+295
+00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:30,440
+okay what it means القيمة الحرجة فاكرين القيمة
+
+296
+00:26:30,440 --> 00:26:38,560
+الحرجة at a particular confidence
+
+297
+00:26:38,560 --> 00:26:43,960
+level عند
+
+298
+00:26:43,960 --> 00:26:48,600
+مستوى معنوية أو مستوى ثقة معين خلّيني أجي نقول
+
+299
+00:26:49,520 --> 00:26:54,560
+تطلعوا على التلات مقالات الموجودين هنا لنفترض أن
+
+300
+00:26:54,560 --> 00:26:59,960
+هدول بمثله minus 30% و minus 20% و minus .. خلّيني
+
+301
+00:26:59,960 --> 00:27:04,140
+minus 30% و minus 20% هدول النقطتين الموجودين هنا
+
+302
+00:27:04,140 --> 00:27:10,760
+اللي هم الـ extreme negative values okay هلأ بنحكي
+
+303
+00:27:10,760 --> 00:27:15,900
+what is .. what is the worst loss
+
+304
+00:27:19,890 --> 00:27:28,490
+95% ما هي أسوأ خسارة ممكن نحصل عليها عند 95% then
+
+305
+00:27:28,490 --> 00:27:36,010
+we apply this هنطبق هذه الـ average معروفة والـ sigma
+
+306
+00:27:36,010 --> 00:27:39,910
+معروفة الـ standard deviation معروف بيضل الـ z ايش
+
+307
+00:27:39,910 --> 00:27:46,730
+الـ z هذه الـ z عند 95% اللي هي المنطقة هذه عند 95%
+
+308
+00:27:46,730 --> 00:27:53,260
+بتساوي 1.65 أخدتها بالـ .. بتنجح بين الجدول اللي هو
+
+309
+00:27:53,260 --> 00:27:55,980
+بالـ .. اللي أخدتها من الإحسان اه one point six
+
+310
+00:27:55,980 --> 00:28:00,980
+five فبصير احنا الـ MUE minus one point six five
+
+311
+00:28:00,980 --> 00:28:07,480
+times sigma نفترض الجواب طلع لنا minus twenty
+
+312
+00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:11,700
+percent ايش معناه what it means ايش معناه ما عرفت
+
+313
+00:28:11,700 --> 00:28:16,040
+عشان عشانين تمية أسوأ خسارة ممكن احنا نحصل عليها
+
+314
+00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:22,630
+من الاستثمار في A ما بتزيد عن minus 20% in other
+
+315
+00:28:22,630 --> 00:28:26,470
+words the worst loss that we can take when we
+
+316
+00:28:26,470 --> 00:28:32,990
+invest in A is not greater than 20% or minus 20%
+
+317
+00:28:32,990 --> 00:28:43,430
+أو بطريقة أخرى أنه we are hundred percent sure or
+
+318
+00:28:43,430 --> 00:28:50,040
+five percent يعني احنا حكينا عن 95% هيك 95% وها 5%
+
+319
+00:28:50,040 --> 00:28:57,100
+بنسبة 5% احنا بنكون متأكدين أن البيانات الخسائر
+
+320
+00:28:57,100 --> 00:29:06,720
+تبعتنا مش هتزيد عن .. مش هتزيد عن 20% okay هذه إذا
+
+321
+00:29:06,720 --> 00:29:13,040
+كانت negative values طيب
+
+322
+00:29:15,120 --> 00:29:18,240
+إذا الـ values الـ risk بتقيس لإيه؟ أهم إيش تعرفوا
+
+323
+00:29:18,240 --> 00:29:23,060
+هذا الـ loss loss أسوأ خسارة ممكن احنا نحصل عليها
+
+324
+00:29:23,060 --> 00:29:26,780
+and we compare زي ما شوفنا الـ loss loss we compare
+
+325
+00:29:26,780 --> 00:29:32,300
+the average values with the negative values
+
+326
+00:29:43,920 --> 00:29:46,320
+So the values at risk just to remind you with the
+
+327
+00:29:46,320 --> 00:29:50,020
+values at risk a measure of loss most frequently
+
+328
+00:29:50,020 --> 00:29:51,960
+associated with the extreme negative returns
+
+329
+00:29:51,960 --> 00:29:55,640
+العلاج بالـ extreme negative returns be careful is
+
+330
+00:29:55,640 --> 00:30:00,300
+not related to the positive return is related to
+
+331
+00:30:00,300 --> 00:30:03,460
+the extreme negative return values at risk is the
+
+332
+00:30:03,460 --> 00:30:07,800
+quantile of a distribution below which lies Q
+
+333
+00:30:07,800 --> 00:30:10,620
+percent of the possible values of that
+
+334
+00:30:10,620 --> 00:30:12,820
+distribution يعني ما هو احتمال أنه نحصل على
+
+335
+00:30:13,590 --> 00:30:16,510
+outliers في المنطقة هذه مالكو مش كتير في هذا
+
+336
+00:30:16,510 --> 00:30:18,650
+الكلام لإنهم عرفوا ليه هذا، هذا شوية صعب عادي
+
+337
+00:30:18,650 --> 00:30:26,890
+okay the five percent values at risk في ناس
+
+338
+00:30:26,890 --> 00:30:29,830
+بيعتبروا الـ values at risk هي الـ probability هي
+
+339
+00:30:29,830 --> 00:30:35,250
+ايش احتمالية is the probability to make loss هي
+
+340
+00:30:35,250 --> 00:30:40,950
+احتمال جداش احنا الاحتمال نخسر دائما الناس بتنظر للـ
+
+341
+00:30:40,950 --> 00:30:45,010
+.. للربح لكن احنا في الـ finance و الـ investment
+
+342
+00:30:45,010 --> 00:30:48,930
+برضه بنشوف ما هو احتمال أن احنا نخسر بتعطينا الـ
+
+343
+00:30:48,930 --> 00:30:53,230
+investment option commonly estimated in practice
+
+344
+00:30:53,230 --> 00:30:57,650
+هذه كتير مستخدمة في الحياة العملية اللي هو الـ
+
+345
+00:30:57,650 --> 00:31:01,210
+values at risk صحيح أن أنت .. you first time to ..
+
+346
+00:31:01,210 --> 00:31:04,730
+to hear about this to know about this but this is
+
+347
+00:31:04,730 --> 00:31:08,290
+commonly used in practice كتير ناس بيستخدموها في
+
+348
+00:31:08,290 --> 00:31:11,550
+الحياة العملية ممكن ناس يكونوا مش خرجين جامعات
+
+349
+00:31:11,550 --> 00:31:15,410
+يعني unfortunately you are in the university and
+
+350
+00:31:15,410 --> 00:31:17,570
+you are the first time to know about this but some
+
+351
+00:31:17,570 --> 00:31:19,990
+people is not in the university and they know
+
+352
+00:31:19,990 --> 00:31:23,670
+about this في ناس مش أصلا ما راحوش على الجامعة و
+
+353
+00:31:23,670 --> 00:31:25,890
+they know their values at risk and they asking
+
+354
+00:31:25,890 --> 00:31:29,690
+themselves ايش أسوأ ايش ممكن نسويه مرات يعني even
+
+355
+00:31:29,690 --> 00:31:33,520
+me sometimes what is the worst thing if you know
+
+356
+00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:36,500
+the worst things is fine يعني ايش أسوأ شيء ممكن
+
+357
+00:31:36,500 --> 00:31:39,700
+يصير and build your decision based on the worst
+
+358
+00:31:39,700 --> 00:31:44,500
+thing على أسوأ شيء دائما احنا we are looking to
+
+359
+00:31:44,500 --> 00:31:48,780
+the future as a flourish a future and we ignoring
+
+360
+00:31:48,780 --> 00:31:51,860
+the worst things يعني بنشوف المستقبل أحسن شيء و
+
+361
+00:31:51,860 --> 00:31:55,620
+أحلى شيء ف sometimes you have to look back and to
+
+362
+00:31:55,620 --> 00:31:58,360
+see if the worst thing happened what you can do
+
+363
+00:31:58,360 --> 00:32:02,870
+then إذا أسوأ شيء صار شو نعمل؟ from the investment
+
+364
+00:32:02,870 --> 00:32:08,250
+point of view من وجهة نظر المستثمرين، so if you
+
+365
+00:32:08,250 --> 00:32:10,790
+know the worst things so you can easily manage the
+
+366
+00:32:10,790 --> 00:32:13,870
+investment لكن if you don't know the worst things
+
+367
+00:32:13,870 --> 00:32:17,630
+so how you can know this so commonly estimated in
+
+368
+00:32:17,630 --> 00:32:20,790
+practice كتير مشهورة بالـ practice is the return at
+
+369
+00:32:20,790 --> 00:32:25,490
+the fifth percentile okay يعني الـ .. الـ .. الـ ..
+
+370
+00:32:25,490 --> 00:32:28,930
+بتعرفوا الـ .. أخدتوا الاشارات؟ أخدتوا الاشارات و
+
+371
+00:32:28,930 --> 00:32:33,250
+الربيع؟ الربيع الأول؟ الربيع الثاني؟ هذا هو الزمان
+
+372
+00:32:33,250 --> 00:32:37,070
+أخدته يعني هي بتيجي بعد ما أنا أقسم البيانات شوف
+
+373
+00:32:37,070 --> 00:32:41,730
+عندي بيانات في عندي observation اه بقسمها إلى
+
+374
+00:32:41,730 --> 00:32:47,650
+أشيريات percentiles فـ percentile أنه احنا بنقسم
+
+375
+00:32:47,650 --> 00:32:51,330
+البيانات من الـ .. البيانات .. البيانات بنقسمها من
+
+376
+00:32:51,330 --> 00:32:56,550
+أعلى إلى أقل وبنقسمها إلى .. إلى عشيريات أول عشرات
+
+377
+00:32:56,550 --> 00:33:00,110
+.. يعني مثلا جيبنا درجات الطلاب مثلا جيبنا درجات
+
+378
+00:33:00,110 --> 00:33:05,850
+الطلاب من تسعين لسفر مش لمية أو من مية لسفرأه من
+
+379
+00:33:05,850 --> 00:33:11,170
+مية لسفر بعدين جسمنا عملنا لهم ranking و روحنا
+
+380
+00:33:11,170 --> 00:33:14,470
+جيبنا أول عشر طلاب بعدين ثانية عشر طلاب ثالث عشر
+
+381
+00:33:14,470 --> 00:33:18,930
+طلاب رابعة و .. and so on هنجري أنه احنا حسب ..
+
+382
+00:33:18,930 --> 00:33:22,270
+هذا بيسموه percentile هذا إيش اسمه؟ في عندنا شغل
+
+383
+00:33:22,270 --> 00:33:26,210
+اسمه quartile و في quantile و في عندنا percentile
+
+384
+00:33:26,210 --> 00:33:31,950
+okay بقى percent اللي هو الربيع و العشر و المهم
+
+385
+00:33:32,700 --> 00:33:36,460
+ففي ال percentile أو خلينا نحكي بال .. إذا قسمناهم
+
+386
+00:33:36,460 --> 00:33:40,420
+لمئة مثلا أو لعشرة طبعا هم مستخدم ال quantile
+
+387
+00:33:40,420 --> 00:33:43,880
+ممكن نستخدم ال percentile نقسمهم لأول عشرة .. أول
+
+388
+00:33:43,880 --> 00:33:46,320
+عشرة .. أول عشرة .. هذا أول عشرة .. ثاني عشرة ..
+
+389
+00:33:46,320 --> 00:33:50,440
+ال values at risk هي بتكون بالعشرات اللي تحت يعني
+
+390
+00:33:50,440 --> 00:33:53,340
+بالنسبة للطلاب ال values عشان أنا أعرف where is
+
+391
+00:33:53,340 --> 00:33:57,280
+the best هيكونوا هم اللي تحت أصلا فعشان هيك they
+
+392
+00:33:57,280 --> 00:34:02,480
+take the last quantiles or last quantiles or last
+
+393
+00:34:02,480 --> 00:34:06,480
+percentiles okay when returns are sorted from high
+
+394
+00:34:06,480 --> 00:34:10,800
+to low جربوها يعني لو بتاخدوا معايا الحاسوب
+
+395
+00:34:10,800 --> 00:34:14,520
+التحليل معايا بيواجهيكوا how .. بيصنفوا ناخذ آخر
+
+396
+00:34:14,520 --> 00:34:18,240
+ناس سهل نعرف أن مين أسوأ ناس موجودين لا سمح الله
+
+397
+00:34:18,240 --> 00:34:21,920
+يعني okay
+
+398
+00:34:21,920 --> 00:34:27,470
+خليني بس ع السريع لإن أنا هخلصكم اليوم الشغلات
+
+399
+00:34:27,470 --> 00:34:32,810
+المصيبة ال dial بس ال expected shortfall is expected
+
+400
+00:34:32,810 --> 00:34:35,910
+shortfall is also called conditional tail
+
+401
+00:34:35,910 --> 00:34:40,110
+expectation المشكلة
+
+402
+00:34:40,110 --> 00:34:44,530
+في ال values at risk is comparing these values
+
+403
+00:34:44,530 --> 00:34:49,350
+with these values لما احنا we compare this نقرر
+
+404
+00:34:49,350 --> 00:34:54,140
+الناس الشاطرين بالناس الرسوبيين يعني we compare the
+
+405
+00:34:54,140 --> 00:34:57,300
+positive values with the negative values هذا باسمه
+
+406
+00:34:57,300 --> 00:34:59,820
+بال values at risk so values at risk is a
+
+407
+00:34:59,820 --> 00:35:05,680
+conservative measure يعني محافظ شوية but in
+
+408
+00:35:05,680 --> 00:35:08,900
+shortfalls is only focusing on the negative values
+
+409
+00:35:08,900 --> 00:35:12,340
+بس بتركز على ال negative values to what extent
+
+410
+00:35:12,340 --> 00:35:18,980
+these values are negative؟ قد إيش هم سيئين أصلا okay
+
+411
+00:35:18,980 --> 00:35:23,750
+we know we have negative values يعني احنا بنعرف أن
+
+412
+00:35:23,750 --> 00:35:28,270
+في عندنا negative returns but to what extent these
+
+413
+00:35:28,270 --> 00:35:31,990
+negative returns influence on our portfolio or in
+
+414
+00:35:31,990 --> 00:35:37,890
+our decision يعني شفنا مثلا في عندنا طلاب راسبين
+
+415
+00:35:37,890 --> 00:35:42,870
+تحت لكن قد إيش هدول مهمين بالنسبة لنا إذا جينا أن
+
+416
+00:35:42,870 --> 00:35:48,720
+والله هذا العدد مقارنة مع ال big people أنه very
+
+417
+00:35:48,720 --> 00:35:52,700
+very small we can ignore them but if it is if
+
+418
+00:35:52,700 --> 00:35:57,080
+there is a problem if we observe if we observe the
+
+419
+00:35:57,080 --> 00:36:00,380
+negative return like we have a number of people so
+
+420
+00:36:00,380 --> 00:36:06,240
+we focus on this ف shortfalls is not comparing the
+
+421
+00:36:06,240 --> 00:36:09,040
+good people with the good results with the bad
+
+422
+00:36:09,040 --> 00:36:12,980
+results just only focusing on the bad results بس
+
+423
+00:36:12,980 --> 00:36:16,880
+بتطلع ال negative returns okay and see why why
+
+424
+00:36:16,880 --> 00:36:21,960
+these negative returns So values at risk take the
+
+425
+00:36:21,960 --> 00:36:26,640
+highest return from the worst cases Okay بتاخد
+
+426
+00:36:26,640 --> 00:36:32,840
+أعلى عائد من أسوأ حالات Expected shortfalls اللي
+
+427
+00:36:32,840 --> 00:36:37,420
+EC take an average return of the worst cases هتيجي
+
+428
+00:36:37,420 --> 00:36:43,170
+كأنه إيش هنسوي طلعوا هنا شوفوا الحالة هنا في ال
+
+429
+00:36:43,170 --> 00:36:46,970
+values at risk ال average moved to the down،
+
+430
+00:36:46,970 --> 00:36:52,290
+مظبوط؟ وشوفنا إيش ال .. إيش هذا تأثرت بهدول، لكن
+
+431
+00:36:52,290 --> 00:36:56,250
+بال .. ال expected shortfalls هذا .. we ignore
+
+432
+00:36:56,250 --> 00:37:00,550
+this and we calculate the average of this، بنشوف
+
+433
+00:37:00,550 --> 00:37:04,870
+ال average تلقى هدول، قد إيش هو is negative، قد إيش هو
+
+434
+00:37:04,870 --> 00:37:10,250
+سيء هذا الفرق بين ال values at risk و بين expected
+
+435
+00:37:10,250 --> 00:37:13,790
+shortfalls expected shortfalls تأخذ عدد عادل عادل
+
+436
+00:37:13,790 --> 00:37:19,750
+عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل
+
+437
+00:37:19,750 --> 00:37:21,010
+عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل
+
+438
+00:37:21,010 --> 00:37:24,190
+عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل
+
+439
+00:37:24,190 --> 00:37:25,530
+عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل
+
+440
+00:37:25,530 --> 00:37:25,550
+عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل
+
+441
+00:37:25,550 --> 00:37:31,770
+عادل عادل عادل عادل
+
+442
+00:37:31,770 --> 00:37:36,500
+على اللي هو ال lower partial standard deviation and
+
+443
+00:37:36,500 --> 00:37:42,740
+the Sortino ratio احنا حكينا احنا إذا كان عندنا
+
+444
+00:37:42,740 --> 00:37:47,540
+non-normal distribution so the average is no
+
+445
+00:37:47,540 --> 00:37:52,940
+longer is a good measure to return or to the risk
+
+446
+00:37:52,940 --> 00:37:57,140
+حكينا إذا كان البيانات مش normal distribution
+
+447
+00:37:57,940 --> 00:38:00,640
+توزيعها مش طبيعي معناه الكلام ال average is
+
+448
+00:38:00,640 --> 00:38:04,020
+misleading the standard deviation is misleading so
+
+449
+00:38:04,020 --> 00:38:09,520
+what we can do then إيش ممكن نسوي instead of using
+
+450
+00:38:09,520 --> 00:38:12,680
+average بدل ما احنا نستخدم ال average we can
+
+451
+00:38:12,680 --> 00:38:19,180
+replace the average by the risk free يعني شوفوا
+
+452
+00:38:19,180 --> 00:38:23,780
+شايفين البيانات هذه البيانات
+
+453
+00:38:23,780 --> 00:38:29,100
+هذه هذه البيانات اللي فيها outliers وروحنا جيبنا ال
+
+454
+00:38:29,100 --> 00:38:32,740
+average طالع حامل حسب ال lower partial standard
+
+455
+00:38:32,740 --> 00:38:38,960
+deviation هذا ال average is misleading so the
+
+456
+00:38:38,960 --> 00:38:42,600
+statisticians or the statistical people and the
+
+457
+00:38:42,600 --> 00:38:45,340
+financial people think the average is misleading
+
+458
+00:38:45,340 --> 00:38:51,580
+so what we can do then is remove the average بدل ال
+
+459
+00:38:51,580 --> 00:38:54,960
+average so replace the average with the risk
+
+460
+00:38:54,960 --> 00:38:55,240
+-free
+
+461
+00:38:59,820 --> 00:39:03,120
+بنجيب ال average و بنحط ال risk free بلغة okay
+
+462
+00:39:03,120 --> 00:39:09,140
+because the risk free is a parameter or a good
+
+463
+00:39:09,140 --> 00:39:12,620
+indicator for all of the investments فاحنا بنشوف
+
+464
+00:39:12,620 --> 00:39:17,400
+ال risk free وين بيجي أه بيجي أها خلاص فلما بنحسب
+
+465
+00:39:17,400 --> 00:39:20,440
+ال sigma بنقول هذه ال observation ناقصها يعني لما
+
+466
+00:39:20,440 --> 00:39:24,900
+احنا نحسب ال sigma كنا نحسبها R minus R bar okay
+
+467
+00:39:24,900 --> 00:39:28,500
+تربيع divided by N صح؟
+
+468
+00:39:31,100 --> 00:39:34,840
+في حالة ما نستخدم ال lower partial هنشيل ال R bar
+
+469
+00:39:34,840 --> 00:39:44,880
+ونحط بدلها إيه؟ ال R ال RR بس فهدول بيعتقدوا أنه
+
+470
+00:39:44,880 --> 00:39:49,260
+هيك أدق بيصير so issues need to consider negative
+
+471
+00:39:49,260 --> 00:39:52,620
+deviations separately طبعا هاي negative retained
+
+472
+00:39:52,620 --> 00:39:55,180
+separately بتتوافق مع ال expected shortfalls،
+
+473
+00:39:55,180 --> 00:39:58,840
+مظبوط؟ ها دي بتتوافق مع ال expected shortfalls
+
+474
+00:39:58,840 --> 00:40:04,420
+اللي فاتت yes لأن احنا just focus on the expected
+
+475
+00:40:04,420 --> 00:40:10,620
+shortfalls هذي بس ركزوا على ال negative values
+
+476
+00:40:12,010 --> 00:40:16,050
+الإضافة الجديدة اللي عملوها يعني هي ال ال values
+
+477
+00:40:16,050 --> 00:40:20,030
+at risk انتبهوا ال values at risk زي صار فيها
+
+478
+00:40:20,030 --> 00:40:23,430
+developments بعدين اجوا ناس قالوا لأ ال values at
+
+479
+00:40:23,430 --> 00:40:26,590
+risk هي conservatives خلينا نطور واحدة ثانية
+
+480
+00:40:26,590 --> 00:40:29,730
+سموها ال expected shortfalls قالوا لأ ال expected
+
+481
+00:40:29,730 --> 00:40:33,750
+shortfalls بتاخد عند اعتبار ال average صحيح it's
+
+482
+00:40:33,750 --> 00:40:37,800
+it's looking at the negative returns بقى is looking
+
+483
+00:40:37,800 --> 00:40:40,460
+to the average and the average is misleading so
+
+484
+00:40:40,460 --> 00:40:45,780
+what we can do then replace the average by the by
+
+485
+00:40:45,780 --> 00:40:49,000
+the risk free فهم اعتمدوا نقطتين need to consider
+
+486
+00:40:49,000 --> 00:40:51,220
+the negative deviation separately negative returns
+
+487
+00:40:51,220 --> 00:40:53,900
+and need to consider deviation from return from
+
+488
+00:40:53,900 --> 00:40:57,620
+the risk free rates من ال risk free not from the
+
+489
+00:40:57,620 --> 00:40:59,280
+not from the average
+
+490
+00:41:07,530 --> 00:41:11,730
+هذه الأولى look like they expected shortfalls
+
+491
+00:41:11,730 --> 00:41:15,930
+خلصنا إيش عملوا تطوير عليها؟ عملوا تطوير جديد
+
+492
+00:41:15,930 --> 00:41:21,570
+عليها بدل ما يحسبوا ال minus minus the average
+
+493
+00:41:21,570 --> 00:41:29,850
+استخدموا ال risk free بس ال LBSD similar to usual
+
+494
+00:41:29,850 --> 00:41:32,390
+standard deviation هي شبه ال standard deviation
+
+495
+00:41:32,390 --> 00:41:37,700
+لكن إيش الفرق منها؟ بس ال risk free طيب فاكرين
+
+496
+00:41:37,700 --> 00:41:43,760
+share ratio share ratio اللي هو ال share ratio
+
+497
+00:41:43,760 --> 00:41:46,700
+اللي حكيناكوا فيها ال excess return او risk
+
+498
+00:41:46,700 --> 00:41:51,700
+premium divided by the standard deviation، مظبوط؟
+
+499
+00:41:51,700 --> 00:41:58,220
+طيب بما أن ال data is not normally distributed طب
+
+500
+00:41:58,220 --> 00:42:02,520
+بعد كلام ال share ratio is not working هذا الكلام
+
+501
+00:42:02,520 --> 00:42:05,800
+حكيناه قويا قبل تلت أربعتين قولنا إذا البيانات
+
+502
+00:42:05,800 --> 00:42:10,840
+توزيع غير طبيعي معنى الكلام إن ال-sharp ratio مش 
+
+503
+00:42:10,840 --> 00:42:16,080
+صح please focus on this what I said just three 
+
+504
+00:42:16,080 --> 00:42:20,000
+meetings I said if our data is not normally 
+
+505
+00:42:20,000 --> 00:42:25,080
+distributed we cannot.. we no longer use the
+
+506
+00:42:25,080 --> 00:42:29,290
+sharp ratio طب what is the solution if our data is
+
+507
+00:42:29,290 --> 00:42:33,970
+not normally distributed we can just replace the
+
+508
+00:42:33,970 --> 00:42:35,730
+standard deviation because the standard deviation
+
+509
+00:42:35,730 --> 00:42:38,830
+is misleading in Sharpe ratio and replace this
+
+510
+00:42:38,830 --> 00:42:44,870
+with the  downside risk yes and when we replace it with
+
+511
+00:42:44,870 --> 00:42:50,170
+downside risk it's become Sortino ratio or Sortino 
+
+512
+00:42:55,820 --> 00:42:59,780
+So Sortino Ratio is similar to the Sharpe Ratio
+
+513
+00:42:59,780 --> 00:43:03,300
+بقى in .. in .. in the Sortino Ratio just we
+
+514
+00:43:03,300 --> 00:43:06,160
+replace the standard deviation with the downside risk
+
+515
+00:43:06,160 --> 00:43:12,460
+اه حلو والله okay
+
+516
+00:43:12,460 --> 00:43:18,600
+تمام
+
+517
+00:43:18,600 --> 00:43:19,500
+okay 
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/DL94jO4H2JM_postprocess.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/DL94jO4H2JM_postprocess.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..7cae6156afe91deb863261f4191831c21b512613
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/DL94jO4H2JM_postprocess.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,2068 @@
+1
+00:00:22,050 --> 00:00:27,550
+طيب بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم في القائلة فات كنا نحكي
+
+2
+00:00:27,550 --> 00:00:32,110
+عن ال .. إذا كانت ال observation .. if the
+
+3
+00:00:32,110 --> 00:00:35,130
+observation is not follow the normal distribution
+
+4
+00:00:35,130 --> 00:00:40,490
+إذا كانت البيانات مابتتبعش التوزيع الطبيعي okay so
+
+5
+00:00:40,490 --> 00:00:46,030
+how we know the data is not following the normal
+
+6
+00:00:46,030 --> 00:00:50,300
+distributionwe check the skewness skew and we ..
+
+7
+00:00:50,300 --> 00:00:54,660
+we check the cortices احنا بنعمل check على ال ..
+
+8
+00:00:54,660 --> 00:00:59,860
+الالتواء و على التفلطح بيسموه ال skew او skew و ال
+
+9
+00:00:59,860 --> 00:01:05,780
+.. و ال cortices زي ما احنا شوفنا المرة الفاتة و
+
+10
+00:01:05,780 --> 00:01:06,960
+احنا رسمنا مع بعض
+
+11
+00:01:14,280 --> 00:01:19,340
+Okay زي ما اشوف now if you look at this black one
+
+12
+00:01:19,340 --> 00:01:25,120
+so it's skewed to the right if you look at the
+
+13
+00:01:25,120 --> 00:01:32,520
+blue one is skewed to the left so you have to
+
+14
+00:01:32,520 --> 00:01:38,680
+think on three things in skewness if it's skewed
+
+15
+00:01:40,320 --> 00:01:45,340
+وإذا ال data is 0 فهذا يعني تحقيقنا لتنمية عادية
+
+16
+00:01:45,340 --> 00:01:56,400
+إذا ال skew هو positivo وهو أكبر من 0 فال data هو
+
+17
+00:01:56,400 --> 00:02:02,380
+skewed لليسار لليسار وإذا
+
+18
+00:02:02,380 --> 00:02:06,900
+ال skew هو نقل لليسار لليسار
+
+19
+00:02:08,690 --> 00:02:14,230
+إذا كانت على اليسار، يعني أن الانفصالين يتقررون
+
+20
+00:02:14,230 --> 00:02:20,570
+المخاطر تتقرر المخاطر
+
+21
+00:02:20,570 --> 00:02:25,090
+إذا كانت تتقرر على اليسار، يعني أن الانفصالين
+
+22
+00:02:25,090 --> 00:02:33,250
+يتقررون المخاطر تتقرر المخاطر تتقرر المخاطر تتقرر
+
+23
+00:02:33,250 --> 00:02:33,410
+المخاطر تتقرر المخاطر تتقرر المخاطر تتقرر المخاطر
+
+24
+00:02:33,410 --> 00:02:33,530
+تتقرر المخاطر تتقرر المخاطر تتقرر المخاطر تتقرر
+
+25
+00:02:33,530 --> 00:02:33,550
+المخاطر تتقرر المخاطر تتقرر المخاطر تتقرر المخاطر
+
+26
+00:02:33,550 --> 00:02:35,750
+تتقرر المخاطر تتقرر المخاطر تتقرر المخاطر تتقرر
+
+27
+00:02:35,750 --> 00:02:41,100
+المخاطر تالمشكلة هي عندما تكون الملاحظة مرسومة إلى
+
+28
+00:02:41,100 --> 00:02:47,500
+اليسار لأن مايعنيه .. انظر .. انظر هنا .. فقط ..
+
+29
+00:02:47,500 --> 00:02:53,940
+يعني أننا لدينا عدد .. لدينا البيانات مثل هذه ..
+
+30
+00:02:53,940 --> 00:02:58,660
+لذلك إذا كنت نتخيل البيانات .. إذا كنت نتخيل عدد
+
+31
+00:02:58,660 --> 00:03:03,700
+هذا البيانات .. عددها أو الميان يجب أن يكون موجود
+
+32
+00:03:03,700 --> 00:03:08,720
+في الوسطOkay should be located in the middle for
+
+33
+00:03:08,720 --> 00:03:14,760
+instance take this example here if you have like
+
+34
+00:03:14,760 --> 00:03:23,940
+this observation 9% 10% or let's say 12% this is R
+
+35
+00:03:23,940 --> 00:03:30,960
+okay إذا أخدنا بيانات ل R لليوم الأول for instance
+
+36
+00:03:30,960 --> 00:03:38,560
+ليوم التاني التالتالرابع الخامس السادس بيانات R
+
+37
+00:03:38,560 --> 00:03:42,500
+اللي هو ال R ال expected return إذا أخدنا ال R أو
+
+38
+00:03:42,500 --> 00:03:49,560
+ال daily return أخدنا 12% أو for instance 11% 10%
+
+39
+00:03:49,560 --> 00:03:55,930
+7% 6% if we calculate the averageإذا قمنا بتخصيص
+
+40
+00:03:55,930 --> 00:04:03,390
+عدد هذا العدد أو عدد الرسمي هو 12 plus 11 plus 10
+
+41
+00:04:03,390 --> 00:04:11,830
+plus 9 plus 7 plus 6 divided by 1 2 3 4 5 6 مخصومة
+
+42
+00:04:11,830 --> 00:04:18,030
+على 6 احسبوها كام تطلع؟ إذا كان لدينا ملاحظات مثل
+
+43
+00:04:18,030 --> 00:04:18,330
+هذه؟
+
+44
+00:04:24,020 --> 00:04:29,080
+سرعة القلات دايما تكون twelve
+
+45
+00:04:29,080 --> 00:04:36,540
+percent eleven nine seven and finally six six
+
+46
+00:04:36,540 --> 00:04:42,840
+percent nine point one okay so the arithmetic or
+
+47
+00:04:42,840 --> 00:04:45,800
+the average is nine point one look at here so nine
+
+48
+00:04:45,800 --> 00:04:53,860
+point one is located here or somewhere hereمع ذلك
+
+49
+00:04:53,860 --> 00:05:00,220
+يعني أن الملاحظة أو البيانات أو عدد البيانات يكون
+
+50
+00:05:00,220 --> 00:05:05,440
+بين 9 و 10 وهو حوالي نصف البيانات أو اختلاف
+
+51
+00:05:05,440 --> 00:05:12,040
+البيانات إلى اتنين جزء أساسي، هذا يكون حوالي اتنين
+
+52
+00:05:12,040 --> 00:05:19,000
+كهذا، كما قلت إن هذا الجزءالصحيح هو مظهر اليسار
+
+53
+00:05:19,000 --> 00:05:24,100
+الذي يعني أن البيانات تتبع المشاركة الطبيعية لكن
+
+54
+00:05:24,100 --> 00:05:30,540
+المشكلة هي إذا كان لدينا قيم أعظم إذا كان لدينا
+
+55
+00:05:30,540 --> 00:05:34,960
+قيم أعظم أو ما يسمونه الـ outliers إذا كان لدينا
+
+56
+00:05:34,960 --> 00:05:38,720
+outliers على سبيل المثال دعونا نضيف شيء إلى هذه
+
+57
+00:05:38,720 --> 00:05:45,150
+الجزيرة إذا كان لديناالخاطر هو مثلًا يوم واحد نقوم
+
+58
+00:05:45,150 --> 00:05:57,250
+بتسجيل حوالي 400% و 300% ما نشاهده في هذا البرنامج
+
+59
+00:05:57,250 --> 00:05:59,830
+إذا قمنا بالتسجيل من المعلومات لدينا هذه المعلومات
+
+60
+00:05:59,830 --> 00:06:05,030
+الأن لدينا هذه المعلومات الأن و يبدو مثلًا هذا
+
+61
+00:06:05,030 --> 00:06:10,910
+المعلومات يبدو مثلًا هذاهذا الاختلاف الكبير بين
+
+62
+00:06:10,910 --> 00:06:13,550
+الاثنين الملاحظات والمقالات المختلفة من الملاحظات
+
+63
+00:06:13,550 --> 00:06:19,530
+هذا يسمى اختلافات اخرى او اقل قيم اخرى او اقل قيم
+
+64
+00:06:19,530 --> 00:06:27,030
+اخرى تسميهم اخرى او اقل قيم اخرى تسميهم اخرى
+
+65
+00:06:27,030 --> 00:06:27,270
+تسميهم اخرى تسميهم اخرى تسميهم اخرى تسميهم اخرى
+
+66
+00:06:27,270 --> 00:06:27,390
+تسميهم اخرى تسميهم اخرى تسميهم اخرى تسميهم اخرى
+
+67
+00:06:27,390 --> 00:06:27,850
+تسميهم اخرى تسميهم اخرى تسميهم اخرى تسميهم اخرى
+
+68
+00:06:27,850 --> 00:06:29,840
+تسميهم اخرى تسميهم اخرى تسميهم اعيدوا احتساب ال
+
+69
+00:06:29,840 --> 00:06:35,300
+average هنعيد احتساب ال average 400 plus 300 plus
+
+70
+00:06:35,300 --> 00:06:41,580
+12 plus 11 plus 10 plus 9 plus 7 plus 6 divided by
+
+71
+00:06:41,580 --> 00:06:47,520
+8 احسبوا ال average ال average will be in some
+
+72
+00:06:47,520 --> 00:06:55,880
+area in here ال average هيكون في .. احسبوا ال
+
+73
+00:06:55,880 --> 00:06:56,360
+average now
+
+74
+00:07:01,030 --> 00:07:12,910
+كداش طلع 94.3 you see so it is 94.3 so now the
+
+75
+00:07:12,910 --> 00:07:16,750
+average now the average what's what's happened
+
+76
+00:07:16,750 --> 00:07:23,570
+with the data ايش اللي صار في البيانات because yes
+
+77
+00:07:23,570 --> 00:07:27,570
+فينا بيانات شاذة فالبيانات شاذة عملت polling up
+
+78
+00:07:28,540 --> 00:07:31,380
+pulling the data to the top or pulling the average
+
+79
+00:07:31,380 --> 00:07:35,580
+to the top يعني هلأ صار ال average is pulling to
+
+80
+00:07:35,580 --> 00:07:39,700
+the top okay
+
+81
+00:07:39,700 --> 00:07:46,160
+صار في تحيز or there is a bias صار عندي إيه؟ bias
+
+82
+00:07:46,160 --> 00:07:51,140
+in this case the positive look at here the
+
+83
+00:07:51,140 --> 00:07:57,740
+positive is greater than the negativeال outliers
+
+84
+00:07:57,740 --> 00:08:01,000
+ال positive أكتر من ال outliers ال negative we
+
+85
+00:08:01,000 --> 00:08:04,880
+don't have negative outliers here فاللي صار أنه
+
+86
+00:08:04,880 --> 00:08:08,640
+صار عندي التواق لليمين هيكون الشكل تبعوا للشكل
+
+87
+00:08:08,640 --> 00:08:16,140
+هيكون الشكل هيك هيكون في to the right to the right
+
+88
+00:08:16,140 --> 00:08:18,800
+why to the right because we have extreme values
+
+89
+00:08:18,800 --> 00:08:24,020
+فال average the average is move to the right ال
+
+90
+00:08:24,020 --> 00:08:27,130
+average هيروح على ال rightلأن هنا فينا الاربعمية
+
+91
+00:08:27,130 --> 00:08:34,310
+والتلاتمية هم outliers so the outliers try to move
+
+92
+00:08:34,310 --> 00:08:38,550
+the average to the right side هياخد ال average لل
+
+93
+00:08:38,550 --> 00:08:44,010
+right side okay this
+
+94
+00:08:44,010 --> 00:08:51,250
+is why .. this is why we have positive skew and
+
+95
+00:08:51,250 --> 00:08:53,980
+the opposite if we take another example hereإذا
+
+96
+00:08:53,980 --> 00:09:00,120
+أخدنا نفس المثال و
+
+97
+00:09:00,120 --> 00:09:04,320
+خلّينا القيام like this شوفوا القيام like this
+
+98
+00:09:04,320 --> 00:09:10,600
+they say twelve percent eleven ten nine seven six
+
+99
+00:09:10,600 --> 00:09:21,940
+and we have here like point five and minus okay
+
+100
+00:09:23,590 --> 00:09:31,290
+minus fifteen and minus thirty أخدنا القيام هدول
+
+101
+00:09:31,290 --> 00:09:38,370
+فشوفوا عكس الحالة هذي بيكون ال data like this ال
+
+102
+00:09:38,370 --> 00:09:44,810
+average like this then it's like this طب ال
+
+103
+00:09:44,810 --> 00:09:49,390
+outliers وين تحت ولا فوق تحت so it's negative لما
+
+104
+00:09:49,390 --> 00:09:54,020
+بيكون the outliers it meansif the average is here
+
+105
+00:09:54,020 --> 00:10:01,400
+so the outliers try to push it down bowling يعني
+
+106
+00:10:01,400 --> 00:10:06,160
+يسحب bowling up pushing down فهيصير ال average
+
+107
+00:10:06,160 --> 00:10:08,840
+somewhere هنا احسبوا الكلام ده شوفوا واحد و اتنين
+
+108
+00:10:08,840 --> 00:10:17,780
+طيب يعني هتكون بمكان مهم مظبوط the average should
+
+109
+00:10:17,780 --> 00:10:21,780
+be somewhere in herebut the average is moved down
+
+110
+00:10:21,780 --> 00:10:27,500
+because the data is skewed to the left حيكون شكل
+
+111
+00:10:27,500 --> 00:10:39,100
+ال .. شكل ال .. شكله هيك تقريب to
+
+112
+00:10:39,100 --> 00:10:42,360
+the left فبكون هدول ال outliers minus fifteen
+
+113
+00:10:42,360 --> 00:10:49,810
+minus thirty is located somewhere in hereOkay, so
+
+114
+00:10:49,810 --> 00:10:54,890
+because there is no symmetric with the data,
+
+115
+00:10:55,090 --> 00:10:58,430
+generally speaking most people in statistics they
+
+116
+00:10:58,430 --> 00:11:02,690
+ignore these things, they ignore this, الناس كلهم
+
+117
+00:11:02,690 --> 00:11:07,070
+بيتجهلوهم, يعني بيتجهلوهم, but in finance we
+
+118
+00:11:07,070 --> 00:11:11,350
+should consider them, in the first case look at
+
+119
+00:11:11,350 --> 00:11:18,000
+here, in this onewhen the .. when the data .. when
+
+120
+00:11:18,000 --> 00:11:23,180
+the data is positive when we have outliers greater
+
+121
+00:11:23,180 --> 00:11:27,900
+than the average it means we have a positive skew
+
+122
+00:11:27,900 --> 00:11:32,100
+but here we have negative skew and because we have
+
+123
+00:11:32,100 --> 00:11:37,680
+positive skew it means لأنه إذا كان عندنا skew ما
+
+124
+00:11:37,680 --> 00:11:41,200
+أنت عارف .. هعرفنا ال skew يعني هالتوا صح؟ إذا
+
+125
+00:11:41,200 --> 00:11:47,120
+كانت موجب positiveبكون عندي over estimate و إذا
+
+126
+00:11:47,120 --> 00:11:54,220
+كانت negative under estimate طيب this is the
+
+127
+00:11:54,220 --> 00:11:58,940
+importance of skew هذا أهمية ال skew نيجي نحكي عن
+
+128
+00:11:58,940 --> 00:12:06,280
+ال cortices على ال cortices خلينا نذكركم بس
+
+129
+00:12:06,280 --> 00:12:11,220
+بالقانون تبع ال skew how to calculate the skew بس
+
+130
+00:12:11,220 --> 00:12:20,580
+يعني القانونبتعرفوا انه Q is equal R minus R bar
+
+131
+00:12:20,580 --> 00:12:29,160
+okay cubed divided by sigma cubed هذا هو ال raise
+
+132
+00:12:29,160 --> 00:12:34,460
+to the power three الكورتوسيز ايش بيقيس الكورتوسيز
+
+133
+00:12:34,460 --> 00:12:38,500
+الكورتوسيز is measure to what extent our data is
+
+134
+00:12:38,500 --> 00:12:43,030
+flatيعني ال I درجة بيكون ال بيانات تبعتنا flat
+
+135
+00:12:43,030 --> 00:12:55,930
+ناخد نتالي لو
+
+136
+00:12:55,930 --> 00:13:03,270
+شوفنا احنا هذا
+
+137
+00:13:03,270 --> 00:13:06,430
+ايش رأيكوا؟ هذا normal distribution ولا ايش؟ this
+
+138
+00:13:06,430 --> 00:13:07,370
+is normal distribution
+
+139
+00:13:11,120 --> 00:13:18,920
+هذا normal distribution توزيع طبيعي هذا
+
+140
+00:13:18,920 --> 00:13:24,980
+فيه توزيع طبيعي why because the right side is
+
+141
+00:13:24,980 --> 00:13:27,840
+approximately equal to the left side يعني الجانب
+
+142
+00:13:27,840 --> 00:13:34,160
+اليمين تقريبا يشبه الجانب الشمال okay طيب so the
+
+143
+00:13:34,160 --> 00:13:41,080
+thing is now the thing is the thing is nowإذا ننظر
+
+144
+00:13:41,080 --> 00:13:44,980
+إلى الجانب اليسار هو تقريبًا يقل الجانب اليسار،
+
+145
+00:13:44,980 --> 00:13:50,140
+إذا كان لدينا كورتوسيه، يعني أن البيانات أكتر
+
+146
+00:13:50,140 --> 00:13:54,500
+مطمئنة من المشاركة الطبيعية، يبدو هكذا
+
+147
+00:14:14,330 --> 00:14:17,730
+So the data .. this is .. this one this means we
+
+148
+00:14:17,730 --> 00:14:20,490
+have a very narrow mean .. mean and the data is
+
+149
+00:14:20,490 --> 00:14:26,830
+flat is scattered in the left and scattered in the
+
+150
+00:14:26,830 --> 00:14:29,390
+.. in the right or in the right and in the left if
+
+151
+00:14:29,390 --> 00:14:35,750
+you see here there is a space between this line
+
+152
+00:14:35,750 --> 00:14:39,030
+with this line but with this one there is .. there
+
+153
+00:14:39,030 --> 00:14:43,430
+is a limit يعني إذا إحنا بناحي البيانات موجودة هون
+
+154
+00:14:46,170 --> 00:14:53,130
+هنجيب بال Cortices ان
+
+155
+00:14:53,130 --> 00:14:57,050
+البيانات تأخذ بعض المكان هنا و بعض المكان هنا
+
+156
+00:14:57,050 --> 00:15:04,630
+هنلاقي بيانات فوق و لاتحت و في الوسط كيف نحسب ال
+
+157
+00:15:04,630 --> 00:15:08,530
+Cortices كيف احنا بنحسب ال Cortices The Cortices
+
+158
+00:15:08,530 --> 00:15:20,920
+is equal to R minus R bar ريز تو البرور فور ريز
+
+159
+00:15:20,920 --> 00:15:21,760
+تو البرور فور ريز تو البرور فور ريز تو البرور فور
+
+160
+00:15:21,760 --> 00:15:22,760
+ريز تو البرور فور ريز تو البرور فور ريز تو البرور
+
+161
+00:15:22,760 --> 00:15:29,180
+فور ريز تو البرور فور ريز تو البرور فور ريز تو
+
+162
+00:15:29,180 --> 00:15:32,180
+البرور فور ريز تو البرور فور ريز تو البرور فور ريز
+
+163
+00:15:32,180 --> 00:15:33,860
+فور ريز تو البرور فور ريز تو البرور فور ريز تو
+
+164
+00:15:33,860 --> 00:15:41,320
+البرور فور ريز تو البرور فور ريز
+
+165
+00:15:41,320 --> 00:15:46,930
+تلحظة يا تيه إذا قمنا بالتخيل هذا الجانب بشكل
+
+166
+00:15:46,930 --> 00:15:51,230
+مختلف و إذا كانت البيانات تتبع اتجارة عادية فهذا
+
+167
+00:15:51,230 --> 00:15:55,790
+يجب أن يكون ثلاثة إذا كانت النتيجة ثلاثة ثلاثة أقل
+
+168
+00:15:55,790 --> 00:16:00,010
+ثلاثة ثم ننتهي بزيرولذلك إذا كانت النتيجة صحيحة
+
+169
+00:16:00,010 --> 00:16:06,870
+إذا كانت النتيجة صحيحة إذا كانت النتيجة صحيحة إذا
+
+170
+00:16:06,870 --> 00:16:07,170
+كانت النتيجة صحيحة إذا كانت النتيجة صحيحة إذا كانت
+
+171
+00:16:07,170 --> 00:16:08,990
+النتيجة صحيحة إذا كانت النتيجة صحيحة إذا كانت
+
+172
+00:16:08,990 --> 00:16:09,610
+النتيجة صحيحة إذا كانت النتيجة صحيحة إذا كانت
+
+173
+00:16:09,610 --> 00:16:11,190
+النتيجة صحيحة إذا كانت النتيجة صحيحة إذا كانت
+
+174
+00:16:11,190 --> 00:16:13,210
+النتيجة صحيحة إذا كانت النتيجة صحيحة إذا كانت
+
+175
+00:16:13,210 --> 00:16:18,530
+النتيجة صحيحة إذا كانت النتيجة صحيحة إذا كانت
+
+176
+00:16:18,530 --> 00:16:23,510
+النتيجة صحيحة إذا
+
+177
+00:16:23,510 --> 00:16:27,330
+كانت
+
+178
+00:16:27,330 --> 00:16:30,840
+النتيجة صحيحةهي تطلع على المعادلة المعادلة فيها
+
+179
+00:16:30,840 --> 00:16:34,500
+إلها شقين هذه ناقص تلاتة إذا طلع هذا الجواب تلاتة
+
+180
+00:16:34,500 --> 00:16:38,280
+تلاتة ناقص تلاتة so it's equal zero إذا كان zero
+
+181
+00:16:38,280 --> 00:16:43,440
+بيكون هذا شوف هذه بيكون zero لأن هاي touch the
+
+182
+00:16:43,440 --> 00:16:47,120
+line and this is touch the line but if it is
+
+183
+00:16:47,120 --> 00:16:51,400
+greater than three شوف إذا كان هذا جوابي greater
+
+184
+00:16:51,400 --> 00:16:55,440
+than three then it's greater than zero so we have
+
+185
+00:16:55,440 --> 00:16:59,070
+corticesOkay, so this is the problem.
+
+186
+00:17:02,490 --> 00:17:10,370
+Now, again the Skew and Cortices help the
+
+187
+00:17:10,370 --> 00:17:12,690
+researcher and help financial people or investors
+
+188
+00:17:12,690 --> 00:17:17,470
+to mention the data are normally distributed or
+
+189
+00:17:17,470 --> 00:17:22,230
+not. إذا كانت البيانات تبعتهم موزعة توزيع طبيعي
+
+190
+00:17:22,230 --> 00:17:23,090
+ولا لأ؟
+
+191
+00:17:27,160 --> 00:17:30,700
+الcortices بيبنوا like this طلع البيانات scattered
+
+192
+00:17:30,700 --> 00:17:34,140
+بيكون في outliers in the top and outliers in the
+
+193
+00:17:34,140 --> 00:17:39,280
+bottom and we have something in the middle فبتكون
+
+194
+00:17:39,280 --> 00:17:43,700
+في زي πاي باي observation أو binomial بتكونش
+
+195
+00:17:43,700 --> 00:17:46,600
+البيانات is focused on the average يعني زي ما انت
+
+196
+00:17:46,600 --> 00:17:51,740
+شايفها هان in this one red one the most of our
+
+197
+00:17:51,740 --> 00:17:57,200
+data look at here most of our dataموجودة في مكان
+
+198
+00:17:57,200 --> 00:18:03,100
+ما هنا وهو حوالي 68% من البيانات الموجودة هنا ولكن
+
+199
+00:18:03,100 --> 00:18:09,320
+إذا كنت تنظر إلى الـ blue one حوالي 30% من
+
+200
+00:18:09,320 --> 00:18:12,800
+بياناتنا موجودة في الأعلى أو موجودة في ال ..
+
+201
+00:18:12,800 --> 00:18:18,700
+والباقية من بياناتنا موجودة في الخارج ممكننا أن
+
+202
+00:18:18,700 --> 00:18:23,600
+نلاحظ مثل هذا إذا أردنا لدينا بيانات مثل هذه و
+
+203
+00:18:23,600 --> 00:18:28,520
+لدينا بيانات مثل هذهو لدينا مصادر مثل هذه حسنا اذا
+
+204
+00:18:28,520 --> 00:18:36,000
+ماهي عاملة؟ عاملة مخططة لهم لأن حسنا ربما العاملة
+
+205
+00:18:36,000 --> 00:18:43,300
+في هنا لذا لدينا شيء هنا و لدينا شيء هنا لذلك إذا
+
+206
+00:18:43,300 --> 00:18:49,600
+قمنا بترتيب هذا في مقالة ننتهي بمقالة بلوOkay,
+
+207
+00:18:50,140 --> 00:18:53,060
+this is .. it's like this has two wings, two big
+
+208
+00:18:53,060 --> 00:18:57,460
+wings يعني هناخد for instance look at here two big
+
+209
+00:18:57,460 --> 00:19:02,220
+wings الناس
+
+210
+00:19:02,220 --> 00:19:05,720
+.. بعض الناس مش كتير في ال statistics so بتاع
+
+211
+00:19:05,720 --> 00:19:10,020
+they're ignoring the outlines فاحنا بالنسبة لل
+
+212
+00:19:10,020 --> 00:19:14,540
+finance outlines are important why outlines are
+
+213
+00:19:14,540 --> 00:19:16,820
+important because indicate something in finance
+
+214
+00:19:17,510 --> 00:19:19,830
+الناس تتعامل بـ Overestimation عندما تكون لديها
+
+215
+00:19:19,830 --> 00:19:23,310
+إتجار مفيد والناس تتعامل ب Underestimate Risk
+
+216
+00:19:23,310 --> 00:19:30,470
+عندما تكون لديها إتجار مفيد حسنا
+
+217
+00:19:30,470 --> 00:19:34,270
+الآن
+
+218
+00:19:34,270 --> 00:19:42,370
+دعونا نتحدث عن إتجار مفقود وهو مهم أيضا في
+
+219
+00:19:42,370 --> 00:19:50,930
+الوزيارة لأنof this look at here as I said we have
+
+220
+00:19:50,930 --> 00:19:55,530
+data like this this is normal and then we have
+
+221
+00:19:55,530 --> 00:20:01,050
+outliers like this اذا احنا أخدنا observations R
+
+222
+00:20:01,050 --> 00:20:05,530
+زي هيك مع الكلام هدول ال average بيكون somewhere
+
+223
+00:20:05,530 --> 00:20:09,050
+هنا because of this outliers maybe the average
+
+224
+00:20:09,050 --> 00:20:14,230
+will go down هيكون جريب لهدولOkay so what the
+
+225
+00:20:14,230 --> 00:20:18,390
+problem then is this positive skew or negative
+
+226
+00:20:18,390 --> 00:20:23,070
+okay this positive or negative why it is negative
+
+227
+00:20:23,070 --> 00:20:27,070
+because لأنه هيسحبوه من التحت okay so we have
+
+228
+00:20:27,070 --> 00:20:33,150
+negative and if we draw the negative so
+
+229
+00:20:33,150 --> 00:20:37,230
+this is this is a negative skew to the right to
+
+230
+00:20:37,230 --> 00:20:44,670
+the leftوإذا قمت بإرسالهم هنا، فسنلاحظ أن البيانات
+
+231
+00:20:44,670 --> 00:20:53,410
+هنا ونلاحظ ما يوجد هنا، الـ outliers، حسنًا؟
+
+232
+00:20:53,410 --> 00:20:59,790
+الأن هذه الـ outliers، لأنها في الجانات المفارقة،
+
+233
+00:20:59,790 --> 00:21:06,850
+نسميها قيمة في خطرbe careful we write it values at
+
+234
+00:21:06,850 --> 00:21:10,650
+risk we are not writing like this this is var
+
+235
+00:21:10,650 --> 00:21:13,950
+which is variance and this is values at risk
+
+236
+00:21:13,950 --> 00:21:19,930
+values at risk what it means values at risk values
+
+237
+00:21:19,930 --> 00:21:26,370
+at risk it means قيم معرضة للخطر بالظبط قيم معرضة
+
+238
+00:21:26,370 --> 00:21:31,990
+للخطر يعني لو جينا احنا رصدنا درجات الطلابلا يا
+
+239
+00:21:31,990 --> 00:21:35,010
+بابا مش ال variance احنا حكينا look be careful
+
+240
+00:21:35,010 --> 00:21:38,150
+this is not not variance هذا مش whole variance
+
+241
+00:21:38,150 --> 00:21:44,970
+this is values at risk زي ما حكت انه قيم معرضة
+
+242
+00:21:44,970 --> 00:21:53,570
+للخطر values at risk values at risk قيم معرضة
+
+243
+00:21:53,570 --> 00:21:58,250
+للخطر طيب هلا مثلا أجينا احنا أخدنا درجات الطلاب
+
+244
+00:21:59,240 --> 00:22:04,140
+لجينا الطلاب في تسعين تمانين خمسين سبعين ستين ف ال
+
+245
+00:22:04,140 --> 00:22:07,980
+values at risk هي ال values ال extreme negative
+
+246
+00:22:07,980 --> 00:22:14,900
+يعني أخدنا درجة الطلاب لجينا فينا تسعين خمس و
+
+247
+00:22:14,900 --> 00:22:21,460
+تسعين تمانين خمس و تمانين سبعين تسعة و ستين سبعين
+
+248
+00:22:21,460 --> 00:22:25,500
+خمس و تمانين okay و بعدين لجينا عشرين عشرة خمس و
+
+249
+00:22:25,500 --> 00:22:30,760
+أستعشسجلنا درجة الطلاب and we found like this
+
+250
+00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:34,000
+لقينا درجات الطلاب where is the values at risk
+
+251
+00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:39,940
+هدول هما ال 20, 10, 15 هدول values at risk هدول
+
+252
+00:22:39,940 --> 00:22:44,260
+values at risk will move the will move the average
+
+253
+00:22:44,260 --> 00:22:49,160
+down وبالتالي ال average هيصير misleading the
+
+254
+00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:52,460
+problem is now from the investment point of view
+
+255
+00:22:52,460 --> 00:22:56,650
+من وجهة نظر المستثمرينto what extent these people
+
+256
+00:22:56,650 --> 00:23:02,610
+are at risk؟ لأي درجة ان هدول ال people في خطر؟
+
+257
+00:23:02,610 --> 00:23:07,010
+لأي درجة هدول الطلاب عندهم .. okay let's things in
+
+258
+00:23:07,010 --> 00:23:13,870
+different ways values at risk measures worst loss
+
+259
+00:23:13,870 --> 00:23:21,570
+أسوأ خسارة يعني بنيجي و بنقول احنا ما هي أسوأ
+
+260
+00:23:21,570 --> 00:23:28,470
+خسارة ممكن نحصل عليها بالفصلأسوأ نتيجة يعني
+
+261
+00:23:28,470 --> 00:23:35,750
+لأ يعني أكم طالب يرصب بنيجي نقول أسوأ نتيجة ممكن
+
+262
+00:23:35,750 --> 00:23:42,350
+نحصل عليها يعني جداش أن عدد طلاب مثلا ستين بنقول
+
+263
+00:23:42,350 --> 00:23:46,650
+احنا حسب الحسابات تبعنا أسوأ نتيجة ممكن نحصل عليها
+
+264
+00:23:46,650 --> 00:23:53,050
+أنه يرصب تلاتة في المية أو بطريقة ثانية أسوأ نتيجة
+
+265
+00:23:54,240 --> 00:24:00,240
+نحصل عليها انه ماتزدش الخسارة بتاعتنا عن 3% this
+
+266
+00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:05,220
+is fine or in other words او بطريقة أخرى نقول أسوأ
+
+267
+00:24:05,220 --> 00:24:11,160
+نتيجة انه احنا نحصل عليها انه النجاح يكون اقل من
+
+268
+00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:17,640
+97% النجاح يكون اقل من 97% نفس ال 3% نفس الفكرة
+
+269
+00:24:17,640 --> 00:24:24,360
+يعني احنا قلنا او النجاح مايزدش عن 97%فبكون لما
+
+270
+00:24:24,360 --> 00:24:28,960
+أقول النجاح مايسدش عن 97% it means أن أسوأ خسارة
+
+271
+00:24:28,960 --> 00:24:33,400
+ممكن نحصل عليها 3% from investment point of view
+
+272
+00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:38,580
+ممكن من وجهة نظر الاستثمار okay what is the worst
+
+273
+00:24:38,580 --> 00:24:45,740
+loss ما هي أسوأ خسارة ممكن نحصل عليها so we need
+
+274
+00:24:45,740 --> 00:24:49,060
+to calculate values at risk عشان نحصل على أسوأ
+
+275
+00:24:49,060 --> 00:24:52,700
+خسارة there are three methods to calculate values
+
+276
+00:24:52,700 --> 00:24:58,130
+at riskin your handbook is only one method فى
+
+277
+00:24:58,130 --> 00:25:03,870
+الكتاب تبعك موجود بس methods واحدة okay and this
+
+278
+00:25:03,870 --> 00:25:06,490
+method is called Monte Carlo method مش موجودة
+
+279
+00:25:06,490 --> 00:25:09,630
+بالكتاب إن اسمها Monte Carlo لكن أنا بقولكوا إيها
+
+280
+00:25:09,630 --> 00:25:13,530
+it is Monte Carlo فممكن بال corrections و لا بالصح
+
+281
+00:25:13,530 --> 00:25:15,490
+و الغلط تقولوا والله يا عزيزي مش موجودة بالكتاب no
+
+282
+00:25:15,490 --> 00:25:19,370
+I'm telling you now this method is Monte Carlo
+
+283
+00:25:23,640 --> 00:25:29,100
+اسم الطريقة اسمها Monte Carlo okay في Monte Carlo
+
+284
+00:25:29,100 --> 00:25:32,580
+في إذاعة اسمها Monte Carlo في دراسة اسمها Monte
+
+285
+00:25:32,580 --> 00:25:39,820
+Carlo so the normal so the values at risk is equal
+
+286
+00:25:39,820 --> 00:25:52,890
+a mu which is the average minus z times sigmaو
+
+287
+00:25:52,890 --> 00:25:58,530
+سنشرح ماذا يعني Z يعني
+
+288
+00:25:58,530 --> 00:26:02,950
+ميو
+
+289
+00:26:02,950 --> 00:26:11,090
+او عامل مانوس سيجما زد مانوس زد يعني عامل عامل
+
+290
+00:26:11,090 --> 00:26:15,150
+عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل
+
+291
+00:26:15,150 --> 00:26:16,530
+عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل
+
+292
+00:26:16,530 --> 00:26:17,790
+عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل
+
+293
+00:26:17,790 --> 00:26:17,810
+عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل
+
+294
+00:26:21,460 --> 00:26:24,720
+the critical value اللي هو القيمة الحرجة بتسميها
+
+295
+00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:30,440
+okay what it means القيمة الحرجة فاكرين القيمة
+
+296
+00:26:30,440 --> 00:26:38,560
+الحرجة at a particular confidence
+
+297
+00:26:38,560 --> 00:26:43,960
+level عند
+
+298
+00:26:43,960 --> 00:26:48,600
+مستوى معنوية أو مستوى ثقة معين خلّيني أجي نقول
+
+299
+00:26:49,520 --> 00:26:54,560
+تطلعوا على التلات مقالات الموجودين هنا لنفترض أن
+
+300
+00:26:54,560 --> 00:26:59,960
+هدول بمثله minus 30% و minus 20% و minus .. خلّيني
+
+301
+00:26:59,960 --> 00:27:04,140
+minus 30% و minus 20% هدول النقطتين الموجودين هنا
+
+302
+00:27:04,140 --> 00:27:10,760
+اللي هم ال extreme negative values okay هلأ بنحكي
+
+303
+00:27:10,760 --> 00:27:15,900
+what is .. what is the worst loss
+
+304
+00:27:19,890 --> 00:27:28,490
+95% ما هي أسوأ خسارة ممكن نحصل عليها عند 95% then
+
+305
+00:27:28,490 --> 00:27:36,010
+we apply this هنطبق هذه ال average معروف وال sigma
+
+306
+00:27:36,010 --> 00:27:39,910
+معروفة ال standard deviation معروف بيضل ال z ايش
+
+307
+00:27:39,910 --> 00:27:46,730
+ال z هذه ال z عند 95% اللي هي المنطقة هذه عند 95%
+
+308
+00:27:46,730 --> 00:27:53,260
+بتساوي 1.65أخدتها بال .. بتنجح بين الجدول اللي هو
+
+309
+00:27:53,260 --> 00:27:55,980
+بال .. اللي أخدتها من الإحسان اه one point six
+
+310
+00:27:55,980 --> 00:28:00,980
+five فبصير احنا ال MUE minus one point six five
+
+311
+00:28:00,980 --> 00:28:07,480
+times sigma نفترض الجواب تلعنا minus twenty
+
+312
+00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:11,700
+percent ايش معناه what it means ايش معناه ماعرفت
+
+313
+00:28:11,700 --> 00:28:16,040
+عشان عشانين تمية أسوأ خسارة ممكن احنا نحصل عليها
+
+314
+00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:22,630
+من الاستثمار في Aما بتزيد عن minus 20% in other
+
+315
+00:28:22,630 --> 00:28:26,470
+words the worst loss that we can take when we
+
+316
+00:28:26,470 --> 00:28:32,990
+invest in A is not greater than 20% or minus 20%
+
+317
+00:28:32,990 --> 00:28:43,430
+أو بطريقة أخرى أنه we are hundred percent sure or
+
+318
+00:28:43,430 --> 00:28:50,040
+five percentيعني احنا حكينا عن 95% هيك 95% وها 5%
+
+319
+00:28:50,040 --> 00:28:57,100
+بنسبة 5% احنا بنكون متأكدين انه البيانات الخسائر
+
+320
+00:28:57,100 --> 00:29:06,720
+تبعتنا مش هتزيد عن .. مش هتزيد عن 20% okay هذه إذا
+
+321
+00:29:06,720 --> 00:29:13,040
+كانت negative values طيب
+
+322
+00:29:15,120 --> 00:29:18,240
+إذا ال values ال risk بتقيس لإيه؟ أهم إيش تعرفوا
+
+323
+00:29:18,240 --> 00:29:23,060
+هذا ال loss loss أسوأ خسارة ممكن إحنا نحصل عليها
+
+324
+00:29:23,060 --> 00:29:26,780
+and we compare زي ما شوفنا ال loss loss we compare
+
+325
+00:29:26,780 --> 00:29:32,300
+the average values with the negative values
+
+326
+00:29:43,920 --> 00:29:46,320
+So the values at risk just to remind you with the
+
+327
+00:29:46,320 --> 00:29:50,020
+values at risk a measure of loss most frequently
+
+328
+00:29:50,020 --> 00:29:51,960
+associated with the extreme negative returns
+
+329
+00:29:51,960 --> 00:29:55,640
+العلاج بالextreme negative returns be careful is
+
+330
+00:29:55,640 --> 00:30:00,300
+not related to the positive return is related to
+
+331
+00:30:00,300 --> 00:30:03,460
+the extreme negative return values at risk is the
+
+332
+00:30:03,460 --> 00:30:07,800
+quantile of a distribution below which lies Q
+
+333
+00:30:07,800 --> 00:30:10,620
+percent of the possible values of that
+
+334
+00:30:10,620 --> 00:30:12,820
+distribution يعني ما هو احتمال انه نحصل على
+
+335
+00:30:13,590 --> 00:30:16,510
+outliers في المنطقة هذه مالكو مش كتير في هذا
+
+336
+00:30:16,510 --> 00:30:18,650
+الكلام لإن هم عرفوا ليه هذا، هذا شوية صعب عادي
+
+337
+00:30:18,650 --> 00:30:26,890
+okay the five percent values at risk في ناس
+
+338
+00:30:26,890 --> 00:30:29,830
+بيعتبروا ال values at risk هي ال probability هي
+
+339
+00:30:29,830 --> 00:30:35,250
+إيش احتمالية is the probability to make loss هي
+
+340
+00:30:35,250 --> 00:30:40,950
+احتمال جديش احنا الاحتمال نخسردائما الناس بتنظر لل
+
+341
+00:30:40,950 --> 00:30:45,010
+.. للربح لكن احنا في ال finance و ال investment
+
+342
+00:30:45,010 --> 00:30:48,930
+برضه بنشوف ما هو احتمال ان احنا نخسر بتعطينا ال
+
+343
+00:30:48,930 --> 00:30:53,230
+investment option commonly estimated in practice
+
+344
+00:30:53,230 --> 00:30:57,650
+هذه كتير مستخدمة في الحياة العملية اللي هو ال
+
+345
+00:30:57,650 --> 00:31:01,210
+values at risk صحيح ان انت .. you first time to ..
+
+346
+00:31:01,210 --> 00:31:04,730
+to hear about this to know about this but this is
+
+347
+00:31:04,730 --> 00:31:08,290
+commonly used in practiceكتير ناس بيستخدموها في
+
+348
+00:31:08,290 --> 00:31:11,550
+الحياة العملية ممكن ناس يكونوا مش خرجين جامعات
+
+349
+00:31:11,550 --> 00:31:15,410
+يعني unfortunately you are in the university and
+
+350
+00:31:15,410 --> 00:31:17,570
+you are the first time to know about this but some
+
+351
+00:31:17,570 --> 00:31:19,990
+people is not in the university and they know
+
+352
+00:31:19,990 --> 00:31:23,670
+about this فى ناس مش أصلا مارحوش على الجامعة و
+
+353
+00:31:23,670 --> 00:31:25,890
+they know their values at risk and they asking
+
+354
+00:31:25,890 --> 00:31:29,690
+themselves إيش أسوأ إيش ممكن نسويه مرات يعني even
+
+355
+00:31:29,690 --> 00:31:33,520
+me sometimes what is the worst thingif you know
+
+356
+00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:36,500
+the worst things is fine يعني إيش أسوأ إشي ممكن
+
+357
+00:31:36,500 --> 00:31:39,700
+يصير and build your decision based on the worst
+
+358
+00:31:39,700 --> 00:31:44,500
+thing على أسوأ إشي دائما احنا we are looking to
+
+359
+00:31:44,500 --> 00:31:48,780
+the future as a flourish a future and we ignoring
+
+360
+00:31:48,780 --> 00:31:51,860
+the worst things يعني بنشوف المستقبل أحسن إشي و
+
+361
+00:31:51,860 --> 00:31:55,620
+أحلى إشي ف sometimes you have to look back and to
+
+362
+00:31:55,620 --> 00:31:58,360
+see if the worst thing happened what you can do
+
+363
+00:31:58,360 --> 00:32:02,870
+then إذا أسوأ إشي صار شو نعمل؟from the investment
+
+364
+00:32:02,870 --> 00:32:08,250
+point of view من وجهة نظر المستثمرين، so if you
+
+365
+00:32:08,250 --> 00:32:10,790
+know the worst things so you can easily manage the
+
+366
+00:32:10,790 --> 00:32:13,870
+investment لكن if you don't know the worst things
+
+367
+00:32:13,870 --> 00:32:17,630
+so how you can know thisso commonly estimated in
+
+368
+00:32:17,630 --> 00:32:20,790
+practice كتير مشهورة بال practice is the return at
+
+369
+00:32:20,790 --> 00:32:25,490
+the fifth percentile okay يعني ال .. ال .. ال ..
+
+370
+00:32:25,490 --> 00:32:28,930
+بتعرفوا ال .. أخدتوا الأشاير؟ أخدتوا الأشاير و
+
+371
+00:32:28,930 --> 00:32:33,250
+الربيع؟ الربيع الأول؟ الربيع التان؟ هذا هو الزمان
+
+372
+00:32:33,250 --> 00:32:37,070
+أخدته يعني هي بتيجي بعد ما أنا قسم البيانات شوف
+
+373
+00:32:37,070 --> 00:32:41,730
+عندي بيانات في عندى observation أه بقسمها إلى
+
+374
+00:32:41,730 --> 00:32:47,650
+أشيريات percentilesف percentile انه احنا بنقسم
+
+375
+00:32:47,650 --> 00:32:51,330
+البيانات من ال .. البيانات .. البيانات بنقسمها من
+
+376
+00:32:51,330 --> 00:32:56,550
+أعلى إلى أقل وبنقسمها إلى .. إلى عشيريات أول عشرات
+
+377
+00:32:56,550 --> 00:33:00,110
+.. يعني مثلا جيبنا درجات الطلاب مثلا جيبنا درجات
+
+378
+00:33:00,110 --> 00:33:05,850
+الطلاب من تسعين لسفر مش لمية أو من مية لسفرأه من
+
+379
+00:33:05,850 --> 00:33:11,170
+مية لسفر بعدين جسمنا عملنا لهم ranking و روحنا
+
+380
+00:33:11,170 --> 00:33:14,470
+جيبنا أول عشر طلاب بعدين تانية عشر طلاب تالت عشر
+
+381
+00:33:14,470 --> 00:33:18,930
+طلاب رابعة و .. and so on هنجرى أنه احنا حسب ..
+
+382
+00:33:18,930 --> 00:33:22,270
+هذا بيسموه percentile هذا إيش اسمه؟ في عندنا شغل
+
+383
+00:33:22,270 --> 00:33:26,210
+اسمه quartile و في quantile و في عندنا percentile
+
+384
+00:33:26,210 --> 00:33:31,950
+okay بقى percent اللي هو الربيع و الأشير و المهم
+
+385
+00:33:32,700 --> 00:33:36,460
+ففي ال percentile او خلينا نحكي بال .. اذا قسمناهم
+
+386
+00:33:36,460 --> 00:33:40,420
+لمائة مثلا او لعشرة طبعا هم مستخدم ال quantile
+
+387
+00:33:40,420 --> 00:33:43,880
+ممكن نستخدم ال percentile نقسمهم لأول عشرة .. اول
+
+388
+00:33:43,880 --> 00:33:46,320
+عشرة .. اول عشرة .. هذا اول عشرة .. تاني عشرة ..
+
+389
+00:33:46,320 --> 00:33:50,440
+ال values at risk هي بتكون بالعشرات اللي تحت يعني
+
+390
+00:33:50,440 --> 00:33:53,340
+بالنسبة للطلاب ال values عشان انا اعرف where is
+
+391
+00:33:53,340 --> 00:33:57,280
+the best هيكونوا هم اللي تحت اصلا فعشان هيك they
+
+392
+00:33:57,280 --> 00:34:02,480
+take the lastquantiles or last quantiles or last
+
+393
+00:34:02,480 --> 00:34:06,480
+percentiles okay when returns are sorted from high
+
+394
+00:34:06,480 --> 00:34:10,800
+to low جربوها يعني لو بتاخدوا معايا الحاسوب
+
+395
+00:34:10,800 --> 00:34:14,520
+التحليل معايا بيواجهيكوا how .. بيصنفوا ناخد أخر
+
+396
+00:34:14,520 --> 00:34:18,240
+ناس سهل نعرف أن مين أسوأ ناس موجودين لا سمح الله
+
+397
+00:34:18,240 --> 00:34:21,920
+يعني okay
+
+398
+00:34:21,920 --> 00:34:27,470
+خليني بس ع السريع لإن انا هخلصكم اليومالشغلات
+
+399
+00:34:27,470 --> 00:34:32,810
+مصيصة ال dial بس ال expected shortfall is expected
+
+400
+00:34:32,810 --> 00:34:35,910
+shortfall is also called conditional tail
+
+401
+00:34:35,910 --> 00:34:40,110
+expectation المشكلة
+
+402
+00:34:40,110 --> 00:34:44,530
+في ال values at risk is comparing these values
+
+403
+00:34:44,530 --> 00:34:49,350
+with these values لما احنا we compare this نقرر
+
+404
+00:34:49,350 --> 00:34:54,140
+الناس الشاطرين بالناس الرسمينيعني we compare the
+
+405
+00:34:54,140 --> 00:34:57,300
+positive values with the negative values هذا باسمه
+
+406
+00:34:57,300 --> 00:34:59,820
+بال values at risk so values at risk is a
+
+407
+00:34:59,820 --> 00:35:05,680
+conservative measure يعني محافظ شوية but in
+
+408
+00:35:05,680 --> 00:35:08,900
+shortfalls is only focusing on the negative values
+
+409
+00:35:08,900 --> 00:35:12,340
+بس بتركز على ال negative values to what extent
+
+410
+00:35:12,340 --> 00:35:18,980
+these values are negative؟ جداش هم سيئين أصلا okay
+
+411
+00:35:18,980 --> 00:35:23,750
+we know we have negative valuesيعني احنا بنعرف ان
+
+412
+00:35:23,750 --> 00:35:28,270
+في عندنا negative returns but to what extent these
+
+413
+00:35:28,270 --> 00:35:31,990
+negative returns influence on our portfolio or in
+
+414
+00:35:31,990 --> 00:35:37,890
+our decision يعني شفنا مثلا في عندنا طلاب رصفين
+
+415
+00:35:37,890 --> 00:35:42,870
+تحت لكن كدهش هدول مهمين بالنسبالنا إذا لجينا ان
+
+416
+00:35:42,870 --> 00:35:48,720
+والله هذا العدد مقارنة مع ال big people انهvery
+
+417
+00:35:48,720 --> 00:35:52,700
+very small we can ignore them but if it is if
+
+418
+00:35:52,700 --> 00:35:57,080
+there is a problem if we observe if we observe the
+
+419
+00:35:57,080 --> 00:36:00,380
+negative return like we have a number of people so
+
+420
+00:36:00,380 --> 00:36:06,240
+we focus on this ف shortfalls is not comparing the
+
+421
+00:36:06,240 --> 00:36:09,040
+good people with the good results with the bad
+
+422
+00:36:09,040 --> 00:36:12,980
+results just only focusing on the bad results بس
+
+423
+00:36:12,980 --> 00:36:16,880
+بتطلع ال negative returnsOkay and see why why
+
+424
+00:36:16,880 --> 00:36:21,960
+these negative returns So values at risk take the
+
+425
+00:36:21,960 --> 00:36:26,640
+highest return from the worst cases Okay بتاخد
+
+426
+00:36:26,640 --> 00:36:32,840
+أعلى عائد من أسوأ حالات Expected shortfalls اللي
+
+427
+00:36:32,840 --> 00:36:37,420
+EC take an average return of the worst cases هتيجي
+
+428
+00:36:37,420 --> 00:36:43,170
+كأنه إيش هنسوي طلعوا هنا شوفوا الحالة هنافي ال
+
+429
+00:36:43,170 --> 00:36:46,970
+values at risk ال average moved to the down،
+
+430
+00:36:46,970 --> 00:36:52,290
+مظبوط؟ وشوفنا إيش ال .. إيش هذا اتأثرت بهدول، لكن
+
+431
+00:36:52,290 --> 00:36:56,250
+بال .. ال expected shortfalls هذا .. we ignore
+
+432
+00:36:56,250 --> 00:37:00,550
+this and we calculate the average of this، بنشوف
+
+433
+00:37:00,550 --> 00:37:04,870
+ال average تلقى هدول، كداش هو is negative، كداش هو
+
+434
+00:37:04,870 --> 00:37:10,250
+سيءهذا الفرق بين ال values at risk و بين expected
+
+435
+00:37:10,250 --> 00:37:13,790
+shortfalls expected shortfalls تأخذ عدد عادل عادل
+
+436
+00:37:13,790 --> 00:37:19,750
+عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل
+
+437
+00:37:19,750 --> 00:37:21,010
+عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل
+
+438
+00:37:21,010 --> 00:37:24,190
+عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل
+
+439
+00:37:24,190 --> 00:37:25,530
+عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل
+
+440
+00:37:25,530 --> 00:37:25,550
+عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل
+
+441
+00:37:25,550 --> 00:37:31,770
+عادل عادل عادل عادل
+
+442
+00:37:31,770 --> 00:37:36,500
+عاللي هو ال lower partial standard deviation and
+
+443
+00:37:36,500 --> 00:37:42,740
+the Sortino ratio احنا حكينا احنا اذا كان عندنا
+
+444
+00:37:42,740 --> 00:37:47,540
+non-normal distribution so the average is no
+
+445
+00:37:47,540 --> 00:37:52,940
+longer is a good measure to return or to the risk
+
+446
+00:37:52,940 --> 00:37:57,140
+حكينا اذا كان البيانات مش normal distribution
+
+447
+00:37:57,940 --> 00:38:00,640
+توزيعها مش طبيعي معناه الكلام ال average is
+
+448
+00:38:00,640 --> 00:38:04,020
+misleading the standard deviation is misleading so
+
+449
+00:38:04,020 --> 00:38:09,520
+what we can do then ايش ممكن نسوي instead of using
+
+450
+00:38:09,520 --> 00:38:12,680
+average بدل ما احنا نستخدم ال average we can
+
+451
+00:38:12,680 --> 00:38:19,180
+replace the average by the risk free يعني شوفوا
+
+452
+00:38:19,180 --> 00:38:23,780
+شايفين البيانات هذه البيانات
+
+453
+00:38:23,780 --> 00:38:29,100
+هذههذه البيانات اللي فيها outliers وروحنا جيبنا ال
+
+454
+00:38:29,100 --> 00:38:32,740
+average طالع حامل حسب ال lower partial standard
+
+455
+00:38:32,740 --> 00:38:38,960
+deviation هذا ال average is misleading so the
+
+456
+00:38:38,960 --> 00:38:42,600
+statisticians or the statistical people and the
+
+457
+00:38:42,600 --> 00:38:45,340
+financial people think the average is misleading
+
+458
+00:38:45,340 --> 00:38:51,580
+so what we can do then is remove the average بدلاش
+
+459
+00:38:51,580 --> 00:38:54,960
+ال average so replace the average with the risk
+
+460
+00:38:54,960 --> 00:38:55,240
+-free
+
+461
+00:38:59,820 --> 00:39:03,120
+بنجيب ال average و بنحط ال risk free بلغه okay
+
+462
+00:39:03,120 --> 00:39:09,140
+because the risk free is a parameter or a good
+
+463
+00:39:09,140 --> 00:39:12,620
+indicator for all of the investments فاحنا بنشوف
+
+464
+00:39:12,620 --> 00:39:17,400
+ال risk free وين بيجي أه بيجي أها خلاص فلما بنحسب
+
+465
+00:39:17,400 --> 00:39:20,440
+ال sigma بنقول هذه ال observation ناقصها يعني لما
+
+466
+00:39:20,440 --> 00:39:24,900
+احنا نحسب ال sigma كنا نحسبها R minus R bar okay
+
+467
+00:39:24,900 --> 00:39:28,500
+تربيه divided by N صح؟
+
+468
+00:39:31,100 --> 00:39:34,840
+في حالة ما نستخدم ال lower partial هنشيل ال R bar
+
+469
+00:39:34,840 --> 00:39:44,880
+ونحط بدلها إيه؟ ال R ال RR بس فهدول بيعتقدوا أنه
+
+470
+00:39:44,880 --> 00:39:49,260
+هيك أدق بيصير so issues need to consider negative
+
+471
+00:39:49,260 --> 00:39:52,620
+deviations separately طبعا هاي negative retained
+
+472
+00:39:52,620 --> 00:39:55,180
+separately بتتوافق مع ال expected shortfalls،
+
+473
+00:39:55,180 --> 00:39:58,840
+مظبوط؟ ها دي بتتوافق مع ال expected shortfalls
+
+474
+00:39:58,840 --> 00:40:04,420
+اللي فاتتyes لان احنا just focus on the expected
+
+475
+00:40:04,420 --> 00:40:10,620
+shortfalls هذي بس ركزوا على ال negative values
+
+476
+00:40:12,010 --> 00:40:16,050
+الإضافة الجديدة اللى عملوها يعني هي ال ال values
+
+477
+00:40:16,050 --> 00:40:20,030
+at risk كنتبهوا ال values at risk زى صار فيها
+
+478
+00:40:20,030 --> 00:40:23,430
+developments بعدين اجوا ناس قالوا لأ ال values at
+
+479
+00:40:23,430 --> 00:40:26,590
+risk هى conservatives خلّينا نطور واحدة تانية
+
+480
+00:40:26,590 --> 00:40:29,730
+سموها ال expected shortfalls قالوا لأ ال expected
+
+481
+00:40:29,730 --> 00:40:33,750
+shortfalls بتاخد عند اعتبار ال average صحيح it's
+
+482
+00:40:33,750 --> 00:40:37,800
+it's looking at the negative returnsبقى is looking
+
+483
+00:40:37,800 --> 00:40:40,460
+to the average and the average is misleading so
+
+484
+00:40:40,460 --> 00:40:45,780
+what we can do then replace the average by the by
+
+485
+00:40:45,780 --> 00:40:49,000
+the risk free فهم اعتمدوا نقطتين need to consider
+
+486
+00:40:49,000 --> 00:40:51,220
+the negative deviation separately negative returns
+
+487
+00:40:51,220 --> 00:40:53,900
+and need to consider deviation from return from
+
+488
+00:40:53,900 --> 00:40:57,620
+the risk free rates من ال risk free not from the
+
+489
+00:40:57,620 --> 00:40:59,280
+not from the average
+
+490
+00:41:07,530 --> 00:41:11,730
+هذه الأولى look like they expected shortfalls
+
+491
+00:41:11,730 --> 00:41:15,930
+خلصنا إيش عملوا تطوير عليها؟ عملوا تطوير جديد
+
+492
+00:41:15,930 --> 00:41:21,570
+عليها بدل ما يحسبوا ال minus minus the average
+
+493
+00:41:21,570 --> 00:41:29,850
+استخدموا ال risk free بس ال LBSD similar to usual
+
+494
+00:41:29,850 --> 00:41:32,390
+standard deviation هي شبه ال standard deviation
+
+495
+00:41:32,390 --> 00:41:37,700
+لكن إيش الفرق منها؟ بس ال risk freeطيب فاكرين
+
+496
+00:41:37,700 --> 00:41:43,760
+share ratio share ratio اللي هو ال share ratio
+
+497
+00:41:43,760 --> 00:41:46,700
+اللي حكيناكوا فيها ال excess return او risk
+
+498
+00:41:46,700 --> 00:41:51,700
+premium divided by the standard deviation، مظبوط؟
+
+499
+00:41:51,700 --> 00:41:58,220
+طيب بما ان ال data is not normally distributed طب
+
+500
+00:41:58,220 --> 00:42:02,520
+بعد كلام ال share ratio is not workingهذا الكلام
+
+501
+00:42:02,520 --> 00:42:05,800
+حكيناه قويا قبل تلت أربعتين قولنا إذا البيانات
+
+502
+00:42:05,800 --> 00:42:10,840
+توزيع غير طبيعي معنى الكلام إن ال sharp ratio مش
+
+503
+00:42:10,840 --> 00:42:16,080
+صح please focus on this what I said just three
+
+504
+00:42:16,080 --> 00:42:20,000
+meetings I said if our data is not normally
+
+505
+00:42:20,000 --> 00:42:25,080
+distributed we cannot .. we no longer use the
+
+506
+00:42:25,080 --> 00:42:29,290
+sharp ratioطب what is the solution if our data is
+
+507
+00:42:29,290 --> 00:42:33,970
+not normally distributed we can just replace the
+
+508
+00:42:33,970 --> 00:42:35,730
+standard deviation because the standard deviation
+
+509
+00:42:35,730 --> 00:42:38,830
+is misleading in Sharpe ratio and replace this
+
+510
+00:42:38,830 --> 00:42:44,870
+with the risk-free yes and when we replace it with
+
+511
+00:42:44,870 --> 00:42:50,170
+risk-free it's become Soratino ratio or Sortino
+
+512
+00:42:55,820 --> 00:42:59,780
+So Sortino Ratio is similar to the Sharpe Ratio
+
+513
+00:42:59,780 --> 00:43:03,300
+بقى in .. in .. in the Sortino Ratio just we
+
+514
+00:43:03,300 --> 00:43:06,160
+replace the standard deviation with the risk-free
+
+515
+00:43:06,160 --> 00:43:12,460
+اه حلو والله okay
+
+516
+00:43:12,460 --> 00:43:18,600
+تمام
+
+517
+00:43:18,600 --> 00:43:19,500
+okay
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/DL94jO4H2JM_raw.json b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/DL94jO4H2JM_raw.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..36264ec48a42f06662dde2ce728a31a8d0a0df0b
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/DL94jO4H2JM_raw.json
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"segments": [{"id": 1, "seek": 4655, "start": 22.05, "end": 46.55, "text": "طيب بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم في القائلة فات كنا نحكي عن ال .. إذا كانت ال observation .. if the observation is not follow the normal distribution إذا كانت البيانات مابتتبعش التوزيع الطبيعي okay so how we know the data is not following the normal distribution", "tokens": [9566, 1829, 3555, 4724, 38251, 21984, 34892, 5016, 27842, 34892, 5016, 32640, 8978, 25062, 16373, 37977, 6156, 9307, 9122, 8315, 8717, 5016, 4117, 1829, 18871, 2423, 4386, 11933, 15730, 25961, 2655, 2423, 14816, 4386, 498, 264, 14816, 307, 406, 1524, 264, 2710, 7316, 11933, 15730, 25961, 2655, 2423, 21292, 7649, 9307, 3714, 16758, 2655, 2655, 3555, 3615, 8592, 16712, 2407, 11622, 40228, 41950, 21292, 3615, 1829, 1392, 370, 577, 321, 458, 264, 1412, 307, 406, 3480, 264, 2710, 7316], "avg_logprob": -0.15253906287252902, "compression_ratio": 1.70935960591133, "no_speech_prob": 5.960464477539063e-08, "words": [{"start": 22.049999999999997, "end": 22.79, "word": "طيب", "probability": 0.8841145833333334}, {"start": 22.79, "end": 23.53, "word": " بسم", "probability": 0.83642578125}, {"start": 23.53, "end": 23.67, "word": " الله", "probability": 0.96826171875}, {"start": 23.67, "end": 23.93, "word": " الرحمن", "probability": 0.96728515625}, {"start": 23.93, "end": 24.33, "word": " الرحيم", "probability": 0.9931640625}, {"start": 24.33, "end": 26.01, "word": " في", "probability": 0.73876953125}, {"start": 26.01, "end": 26.65, "word": " القائلة", "probability": 0.8447265625}, {"start": 26.65, "end": 27.03, "word": " فات", "probability": 0.60986328125}, {"start": 27.03, "end": 27.25, "word": " كنا", "probability": 0.975341796875}, {"start": 27.25, "end": 27.55, "word": " نحكي", "probability": 0.990234375}, {"start": 27.55, "end": 27.75, "word": " عن", "probability": 0.9189453125}, {"start": 27.75, "end": 27.99, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.7900390625}, {"start": 27.99, "end": 28.93, "word": " ..", "probability": 0.8857421875}, 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475.6, "word": " negative", "probability": 0.96630859375}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 18, "seek": 50522, "start": 476.24, "end": 505.22, "text": "ال outliers ال positive أكتر من ال outliers ال negative we don't have negative outliers here فاللي صار أنه صار عندي التواق لليمين هيكون الشكل تبعوا للشكل هيكون الشكل هيك هيكون في to the right to the right why to the right because we have extreme values فال average the average is move to the right ال average هيروح على ال right", "tokens": [6027, 484, 23646, 2423, 3353, 5551, 4117, 2655, 2288, 9154, 2423, 484, 23646, 2423, 3671, 321, 500, 380, 362, 3671, 484, 23646, 510, 6156, 6027, 20292, 20328, 9640, 14739, 3224, 20328, 9640, 18871, 16254, 16712, 14407, 4587, 5296, 20292, 2304, 9957, 39896, 30544, 25124, 28820, 6055, 3555, 3615, 14407, 24976, 8592, 28820, 39896, 30544, 25124, 28820, 39896, 4117, 39896, 30544, 8978, 281, 264, 558, 281, 264, 558, 983, 281, 264, 558, 570, 321, 362, 8084, 4190, 6156, 6027, 4274, 264, 4274, 307, 1286, 281, 264, 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Now, again the Skew and Cortices help the researcher and help financial people or investors to mention the data are normally distributed or not. إذا كانت البيانات تبعتهم موزعة توزيع طبيعي ولا لأ؟", "tokens": [8297, 11, 370, 341, 307, 264, 1154, 13, 823, 11, 797, 264, 32344, 86, 293, 28522, 1473, 854, 264, 21751, 293, 854, 4669, 561, 420, 11519, 281, 2152, 264, 1412, 366, 5646, 12631, 420, 406, 13, 11933, 15730, 25961, 2655, 2423, 21292, 7649, 9307, 6055, 3555, 34268, 16095, 3714, 2407, 11622, 27884, 33427, 11622, 40228, 23032, 21292, 3615, 1829, 49429, 5296, 10721, 22807], "avg_logprob": -0.2949218647554517, "compression_ratio": 1.2714285714285714, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 1017.05, "end": 1017.43, "word": "Okay,", "probability": 0.70068359375}, {"start": 1018.11, "end": 1018.29, "word": " so", "probability": 0.6552734375}, {"start": 1018.29, "end": 1018.51, "word": " this", "probability": 0.9306640625}, {"start": 1018.51, "end": 1018.61, "word": " is", "probability": 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مهم أيضا في الوزيارة لأن", "tokens": [6027, 8315, 3794, 6055, 2655, 3615, 10943, 1211, 4724, 39184, 4886, 377, 332, 399, 43242, 15042, 6055, 30544, 5296, 16254, 11296, 11933, 2655, 7435, 9640, 3714, 5172, 25708, 4032, 6027, 8315, 3794, 6055, 2655, 3615, 10943, 1211, 4724, 6974, 377, 2905, 45892, 43242, 15042, 6055, 30544, 5296, 16254, 11296, 11933, 2655, 7435, 9640, 3714, 5172, 25708, 11331, 3794, 8315, 6024, 48506, 11778, 3615, 2407, 8315, 8717, 2655, 24401, 12984, 18871, 11933, 2655, 7435, 9640, 3714, 5172, 4587, 23328, 37037, 2407, 3714, 16095, 36632, 11242, 995, 8978, 2423, 2407, 11622, 1829, 9640, 3660, 5296, 33456], "avg_logprob": -0.5490131716979177, "compression_ratio": 1.8034682080924855, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 1157.51, "end": 1157.83, "word": "الناس", "probability": 0.8153483072916666}, {"start": 1157.83, "end": 1158.09, "word": " تتعامل", "probability": 0.41138916015625}, {"start": 1158.09, "end": 1158.09, "word": " بـ", "probability": 0.15008544921875}, 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{"start": 1222.65, "end": 1222.75, "word": " is", "probability": 0.94580078125}, {"start": 1222.75, "end": 1223.07, "word": " negative", "probability": 0.95263671875}, {"start": 1223.07, "end": 1223.45, "word": " because", "probability": 0.89501953125}, {"start": 1223.45, "end": 1224.97, "word": " لأنه", "probability": 0.55615234375}, {"start": 1224.97, "end": 1225.85, "word": " هيسحبوه", "probability": 0.6487223307291666}, {"start": 1225.85, "end": 1225.93, "word": " من", "probability": 0.9541015625}, {"start": 1225.93, "end": 1226.27, "word": " التحت", "probability": 0.6871337890625}, {"start": 1226.27, "end": 1226.59, "word": " okay", "probability": 0.822265625}, {"start": 1226.59, "end": 1226.75, "word": " so", "probability": 0.8818359375}, {"start": 1226.75, "end": 1226.91, "word": " we", "probability": 0.96484375}, {"start": 1226.91, "end": 1227.07, "word": " have", "probability": 0.97216796875}, {"start": 1227.07, "end": 1227.45, "word": " negative", "probability": 0.95654296875}, {"start": 1227.45, "end": 1228.07, "word": " and", "probability": 0.955078125}, {"start": 1228.07, "end": 1228.31, "word": " if", "probability": 0.984375}, {"start": 1228.31, "end": 1228.45, "word": " we", "probability": 0.96240234375}, {"start": 1228.45, "end": 1228.67, "word": " draw", "probability": 0.921875}, {"start": 1228.67, "end": 1228.83, "word": " the", "probability": 0.8603515625}, {"start": 1228.83, "end": 1229.29, "word": " negative", "probability": 0.96337890625}, {"start": 1229.29, "end": 1233.15, "word": " so", "probability": 0.435791015625}, {"start": 1233.15, "end": 1233.41, "word": " this", "probability": 0.9638671875}, {"start": 1233.41, "end": 1233.65, "word": " is", "probability": 0.96533203125}, {"start": 1233.65, "end": 1234.31, "word": " this", "probability": 0.8115234375}, {"start": 1234.31, "end": 1234.47, "word": " is", "probability": 0.9580078125}, {"start": 1234.47, "end": 1234.59, "word": " a", "probability": 0.8857421875}, {"start": 1234.59, "end": 1234.97, "word": " negative", "probability": 0.9619140625}, {"start": 1234.97, "end": 1236.49, "word": " skew", "probability": 0.71435546875}, {"start": 1236.49, "end": 1236.61, "word": " to", "probability": 0.9736328125}, {"start": 1236.61, "end": 1236.73, "word": " the", "probability": 0.91748046875}, {"start": 1236.73, "end": 1236.95, "word": " right", "probability": 0.89111328125}, {"start": 1236.95, "end": 1237.23, "word": " to", "probability": 0.9287109375}, {"start": 1237.23, "end": 1237.55, "word": " the", "probability": 0.90185546875}, {"start": 1237.55, "end": 1237.81, "word": " left", "probability": 0.86279296875}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 45, "seek": 126158, "start": 1239.91, "end": 1261.59, "text": "وإذا قمت بإرسالهم هنا، فسنلاحظ أن البيانات هنا ونلاحظ ما يوجد هنا، الـ outliers، حسنًا؟ الأن هذه الـ outliers، لأنها في الجانات المفارقة، نسميها قيمة في خطر", "tokens": [2407, 28814, 15730, 12174, 2304, 2655, 4724, 28814, 2288, 3794, 6027, 16095, 34105, 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1244.31, "word": " أن", "probability": 0.83056640625}, {"start": 1244.31, "end": 1244.67, "word": " البيانات", "probability": 0.65692138671875}, {"start": 1244.67, "end": 1245.23, "word": " هنا", "probability": 0.70166015625}, {"start": 1245.23, "end": 1246.59, "word": " ونلاحظ", "probability": 0.761083984375}, {"start": 1246.59, "end": 1247.43, "word": " ما", "probability": 0.393798828125}, {"start": 1247.43, "end": 1247.67, "word": " يوجد", "probability": 0.5557454427083334}, {"start": 1247.67, "end": 1248.41, "word": " هنا،", "probability": 0.738037109375}, {"start": 1248.41, "end": 1248.43, "word": " الـ", "probability": 0.35693359375}, {"start": 1248.43, "end": 1249.03, "word": " outliers،", "probability": 0.4930826822916667}, {"start": 1249.03, "end": 1253.41, "word": " حسنًا؟", "probability": 0.7522786458333334}, {"start": 1253.41, "end": 1253.41, "word": " الأن", "probability": 0.56494140625}, {"start": 1253.41, "end": 1254.03, "word": " هذه", "probability": 0.52587890625}, {"start": 1254.03, "end": 1254.59, "word": " الـ", "probability": 0.75390625}, {"start": 1254.59, "end": 1257.17, "word": " outliers،", "probability": 0.739013671875}, {"start": 1257.17, "end": 1257.99, "word": " لأنها", "probability": 0.80126953125}, {"start": 1257.99, "end": 1258.25, "word": " في", "probability": 0.73828125}, {"start": 1258.25, "end": 1259.03, "word": " الجانات", "probability": 0.5616861979166666}, {"start": 1259.03, "end": 1259.79, "word": " المفارقة،", "probability": 0.53291015625}, {"start": 1259.79, "end": 1260.71, "word": " نسميها", "probability": 0.8968505859375}, {"start": 1260.71, "end": 1261.17, "word": " قيمة", "probability": 0.692138671875}, {"start": 1261.17, "end": 1261.41, "word": " في", "probability": 0.365234375}, {"start": 1261.41, "end": 1261.59, "word": " خطر", "probability": 0.6724446614583334}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 46, "seek": 128981, "start": 1264.19, "end": 1289.81, "text": "be careful we write it values at risk we are not writing like this this is var which is variance and this is values at risk values at risk what it means values at risk values at risk it means قيم معرضة للخطر بالظبط قيم معرضة للخطر يعني لو جينا احنا رصدنا درجات الطلاب", "tokens": [650, 5026, 321, 2464, 309, 4190, 412, 3148, 321, 366, 406, 3579, 411, 341, 341, 307, 1374, 597, 307, 21977, 293, 341, 307, 4190, 412, 3148, 4190, 412, 3148, 437, 309, 1355, 4190, 412, 3148, 4190, 412, 3148, 309, 1355, 12174, 32640, 20449, 43042, 3660, 24976, 9778, 9566, 2288, 20666, 19913, 3555, 9566, 12174, 32640, 20449, 43042, 3660, 24976, 9778, 9566, 2288, 37495, 22653, 45164, 10874, 1829, 8315, 1975, 5016, 8315, 12602, 9381, 3215, 8315, 11778, 47341, 9307, 41950, 15040, 3555], "avg_logprob": -0.1347179939834083, "compression_ratio": 1.8277777777777777, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 1264.19, "end": 1264.39, "word": "be", "probability": 0.6220703125}, {"start": 1264.39, "end": 1264.77, "word": " careful", "probability": 0.96923828125}, {"start": 1264.77, "end": 1265.13, "word": " we", "probability": 0.473388671875}, {"start": 1265.13, "end": 1265.45, "word": " write", "probability": 0.92919921875}, {"start": 1265.45, "end": 1265.67, "word": " it", "probability": 0.78466796875}, {"start": 1265.67, "end": 1266.57, "word": " values", "probability": 0.8388671875}, {"start": 1266.57, "end": 1266.85, "word": " at", "probability": 0.9599609375}, {"start": 1266.85, "end": 1267.13, "word": " risk", "probability": 0.978515625}, {"start": 1267.13, "end": 1267.77, "word": " we", "probability": 0.6982421875}, {"start": 1267.77, "end": 1268.21, "word": " are", "probability": 0.8720703125}, {"start": 1268.21, "end": 1268.39, "word": " not", "probability": 0.962890625}, {"start": 1268.39, "end": 1268.73, "word": " writing", "probability": 0.92138671875}, {"start": 1268.73, "end": 1269.01, "word": " like", "probability": 0.8623046875}, {"start": 1269.01, "end": 1269.39, "word": " this", "probability": 0.9697265625}, {"start": 1269.39, "end": 1269.75, "word": " this", "probability": 0.7724609375}, {"start": 1269.75, "end": 1270.01, "word": " is", "probability": 0.94091796875}, {"start": 1270.01, "end": 1270.65, "word": " var", "probability": 0.450439453125}, {"start": 1270.65, "end": 1270.93, "word": " which", "probability": 0.87353515625}, {"start": 1270.93, "end": 1271.25, "word": " is", "probability": 0.95556640625}, {"start": 1271.25, "end": 1271.91, "word": " variance", "probability": 0.85791015625}, {"start": 1271.91, "end": 1272.73, "word": " and", "probability": 0.92919921875}, {"start": 1272.73, "end": 1272.91, "word": " this", "probability": 0.91650390625}, {"start": 1272.91, "end": 1273.03, "word": " is", "probability": 0.94091796875}, {"start": 1273.03, "end": 1273.35, "word": " values", "probability": 0.92529296875}, {"start": 1273.35, "end": 1273.57, "word": " at", "probability": 0.9775390625}, {"start": 1273.57, "end": 1273.95, "word": " risk", "probability": 0.97412109375}, {"start": 1273.95, "end": 1274.71, "word": " values", "probability": 0.609375}, {"start": 1274.71, "end": 1275.13, "word": " at", "probability": 0.97412109375}, {"start": 1275.13, "end": 1275.51, "word": " risk", "probability": 0.97705078125}, {"start": 1275.51, "end": 1276.57, "word": " what", "probability": 0.89208984375}, {"start": 1276.57, "end": 1276.75, "word": " it", "probability": 0.9384765625}, {"start": 1276.75, "end": 1277.03, "word": " means", "probability": 0.9296875}, {"start": 1277.03, "end": 1277.35, "word": " values", "probability": 0.92919921875}, {"start": 1277.35, "end": 1277.55, "word": " at", "probability": 0.9814453125}, {"start": 1277.55, "end": 1277.89, "word": " risk", "probability": 0.97998046875}, {"start": 1277.89, "end": 1279.93, "word": " values", "probability": 0.66064453125}, {"start": 1279.93, "end": 1280.21, "word": " at", "probability": 0.98046875}, {"start": 1280.21, "end": 1280.57, "word": " risk", "probability": 0.98095703125}, {"start": 1280.57, "end": 1281.87, "word": " it", "probability": 0.955078125}, {"start": 1281.87, "end": 1282.45, "word": " means", "probability": 0.93212890625}, {"start": 1282.45, "end": 1283.89, "word": " قيم", "probability": 0.728271484375}, {"start": 1283.89, "end": 1284.67, "word": " معرضة", "probability": 0.7736002604166666}, {"start": 1284.67, "end": 1285.05, "word": " للخطر", "probability": 0.9718017578125}, {"start": 1285.05, "end": 1285.51, "word": " بالظبط", "probability": 0.841064453125}, {"start": 1285.51, "end": 1285.95, "word": " قيم", "probability": 0.9462890625}, {"start": 1285.95, "end": 1286.37, "word": " معرضة", "probability": 0.97509765625}, {"start": 1286.37, "end": 1286.81, "word": " للخطر", "probability": 0.990966796875}, {"start": 1286.81, "end": 1287.05, "word": " يعني", "probability": 0.947021484375}, {"start": 1287.05, "end": 1287.17, "word": " لو", "probability": 0.357421875}, {"start": 1287.17, "end": 1287.43, "word": " جينا", "probability": 0.8798828125}, {"start": 1287.43, "end": 1287.95, "word": " احنا", "probability": 0.87255859375}, {"start": 1287.95, "end": 1288.97, "word": " رصدنا", "probability": 0.9384765625}, {"start": 1288.97, "end": 1289.31, "word": " درجات", "probability": 0.9646809895833334}, {"start": 1289.31, "end": 1289.81, "word": " الطلاب", "probability": 0.9812825520833334}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 47, "seek": 131825, "start": 1291.61, "end": 1318.25, "text": "لا يا بابا مش ال variance احنا حكينا look be careful this is not not variance هذا مش whole variance this is values at risk زي ما حكت انه قيم معرضة للخطر values at risk values at risk قيم معرضة للخطر طيب هلا مثلا أجينا احنا أخدنا درجات الطلاب", "tokens": [15040, 35186, 4724, 16758, 995, 37893, 2423, 21977, 1975, 5016, 8315, 11331, 4117, 1829, 8315, 574, 312, 5026, 341, 307, 406, 406, 21977, 23758, 37893, 1379, 21977, 341, 307, 4190, 412, 3148, 30767, 1829, 19446, 11331, 4117, 2655, 16472, 3224, 12174, 32640, 20449, 43042, 3660, 24976, 9778, 9566, 2288, 4190, 412, 3148, 4190, 412, 3148, 12174, 32640, 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"text": "the critical value اللي هو القيمة الحرجة بتسميها okay what it means القيمة الحرجة فاكرين القيمة الحرجة at a particular confidence level عند مستوى معنوية أو مستوى ثقة معين خلّيني أجي نقول", "tokens": [3322, 4924, 2158, 13672, 1829, 31439, 25062, 32640, 3660, 21542, 47341, 3660, 39894, 38251, 1829, 11296, 1392, 437, 309, 1355, 25062, 32640, 3660, 21542, 47341, 3660, 6156, 995, 37983, 9957, 25062, 32640, 3660, 21542, 47341, 3660, 412, 257, 1729, 6687, 1496, 43242, 3714, 14851, 2407, 7578, 20449, 1863, 2407, 10632, 34051, 3714, 14851, 2407, 7578, 38637, 28671, 20449, 9957, 16490, 1211, 11703, 9957, 1829, 5551, 7435, 1829, 8717, 39648], "avg_logprob": -0.2034598224929401, "compression_ratio": 1.5754189944134078, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 1581.46, "end": 1581.64, "word": "the", "probability": 0.06561279296875}, {"start": 1581.64, "end": 1581.98, "word": " critical", "probability": 0.89990234375}, {"start": 1581.98, "end": 1582.6, "word": " value", "probability": 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"probability": 0.8675537109375}, {"start": 1589.3, "end": 1590.44, "word": " القيمة", "probability": 0.87060546875}, {"start": 1590.44, "end": 1591.2, "word": " الحرجة", "probability": 0.9856770833333334}, {"start": 1591.2, "end": 1591.86, "word": " at", "probability": 0.93603515625}, {"start": 1591.86, "end": 1593.54, "word": " a", "probability": 0.93896484375}, {"start": 1593.54, "end": 1594.24, "word": " particular", "probability": 0.93896484375}, {"start": 1594.24, "end": 1598.56, "word": " confidence", "probability": 0.728515625}, {"start": 1598.56, "end": 1599.12, "word": " level", "probability": 0.97705078125}, {"start": 1599.12, "end": 1603.96, "word": " عند", "probability": 0.97705078125}, {"start": 1603.96, "end": 1605.04, "word": " مستوى", "probability": 0.9908447265625}, {"start": 1605.04, "end": 1605.66, "word": " معنوية", "probability": 0.8848876953125}, {"start": 1605.66, "end": 1605.94, "word": " أو", "probability": 0.59912109375}, {"start": 1605.94, "end": 1606.28, "word": " مستوى", "probability": 0.9644775390625}, {"start": 1606.28, "end": 1606.56, "word": " ثقة", "probability": 0.9384765625}, {"start": 1606.56, "end": 1607.44, "word": " معين", "probability": 0.992431640625}, {"start": 1607.44, "end": 1608.2, "word": " خلّيني", "probability": 0.766357421875}, {"start": 1608.2, "end": 1608.4, "word": " أجي", "probability": 0.7235514322916666}, {"start": 1608.4, "end": 1608.6, "word": " نقول", "probability": 0.6580810546875}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 58, "seek": 163590, "start": 1609.52, "end": 1635.9, "text": "تطلعوا على التلات مقالات الموجودين هنا لنفترض أن هدول بمثله minus 30% و minus 20% و minus .. خلّيني minus 30% و minus 20% هدول النقطتين الموجودين هنا اللي هم ال extreme negative values okay هلأ بنحكي what is .. what is the worst loss", "tokens": [2655, 9566, 1211, 3615, 14407, 15844, 16712, 1211, 9307, 3714, 4587, 6027, 9307, 9673, 29245, 23328, 9957, 34105, 5296, 1863, 5172, 2655, 43042, 14739, 8032, 3215, 12610, 4724, 2304, 12984, 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مش هتزيد عن .. مش هتزيد عن 20% okay هذه إذا كانت negative values طيب", "tokens": [40228, 22653, 1975, 5016, 8315, 11331, 4117, 1829, 8315, 18871, 13420, 4, 39896, 4117, 13420, 4, 4032, 11296, 1025, 4, 44945, 35457, 3660, 1025, 4, 1975, 5016, 8315, 44945, 30544, 44650, 10721, 4117, 3215, 9957, 16472, 3224, 2423, 21292, 7649, 9307, 33962, 3794, 16373, 2288, 6055, 3555, 34268, 8315, 37893, 8032, 2655, 11622, 25708, 18871, 4386, 37893, 8032, 2655, 11622, 25708, 18871, 945, 4, 1392, 29538, 11933, 15730, 25961, 2655, 3671, 4190, 23032, 1829, 3555], "avg_logprob": -0.2056949036686044, "compression_ratio": 1.4971098265895955, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 1725.86, "end": 1726.12, "word": "يعني", "probability": 0.751220703125}, {"start": 1726.12, "end": 1726.36, "word": " احنا", "probability": 0.8601888020833334}, {"start": 1726.36, "end": 1726.64, "word": " حكينا", "probability": 0.96826171875}, {"start": 1726.64, "end": 1726.78, "word": " عن", "probability": 0.498046875}, 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returns be careful is not related to the positive return is related to the extreme negative return values at risk is the quantile of a distribution below which lies Q percent of the possible values of that distribution يعني ما هو احتمال انه نحصل على", "tokens": [6455, 264, 4190, 412, 3148, 445, 281, 4160, 291, 365, 264, 4190, 412, 3148, 257, 3481, 295, 4470, 881, 10374, 6615, 365, 264, 8084, 3671, 11247, 2423, 30241, 26108, 20666, 3828, 5301, 3671, 11247, 312, 5026, 307, 406, 4077, 281, 264, 3353, 2736, 307, 4077, 281, 264, 8084, 3671, 2736, 4190, 412, 3148, 307, 264, 4426, 794, 295, 257, 7316, 2507, 597, 9134, 1249, 3043, 295, 264, 1944, 4190, 295, 300, 7316, 37495, 22653, 19446, 31439, 1975, 33753, 2304, 6027, 16472, 3224, 8717, 5016, 36520, 15844], "avg_logprob": -0.2643678243132843, "compression_ratio": 1.8266129032258065, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 1783.92, "end": 1784.18, "word": "So", "probability": 0.11669921875}, {"start": 1784.18, "end": 1784.34, "word": " 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{"start": 1976.63, "end": 1976.85, "word": " يعني", "probability": 0.9833984375}, {"start": 1976.85, "end": 1977.23, "word": " مثلا", "probability": 0.99169921875}, {"start": 1977.23, "end": 1977.53, "word": " جيبنا", "probability": 0.9454345703125}, {"start": 1977.53, "end": 1977.89, "word": " درجات", "probability": 0.9949544270833334}, {"start": 1977.89, "end": 1978.41, "word": " الطلاب", "probability": 0.9840494791666666}, {"start": 1978.41, "end": 1979.61, "word": " مثلا", "probability": 0.74560546875}, {"start": 1979.61, "end": 1979.85, "word": " جيبنا", "probability": 0.9947509765625}, {"start": 1979.85, "end": 1980.11, "word": " درجات", "probability": 0.99365234375}, {"start": 1980.11, "end": 1980.47, "word": " الطلاب", "probability": 0.9873046875}, {"start": 1980.47, "end": 1981.21, "word": " من", "probability": 0.9248046875}, {"start": 1981.21, "end": 1981.65, "word": " تسعين", "probability": 0.963623046875}, {"start": 1981.65, "end": 1982.13, "word": " لسفر", "probability": 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203862, "start": 2012.7, "end": 2038.62, "text": "ففي ال percentile او خلينا نحكي بال .. اذا قسمناهم لمائة مثلا او لعشرة طبعا هم مستخدم ال quantile ممكن نستخدم ال percentile نقسمهم لأول عشرة .. اول عشرة .. اول عشرة .. هذا اول عشرة .. تاني عشرة .. ال values at risk هي بتكون بالعشرات اللي تحت يعني بالنسبة للطلاب ال values عشان انا اعرف where is the best هيكونوا هم اللي تحت اصلا فعشان هيك they take the last", "tokens": [5172, 41185, 2423, 3043, 794, 1975, 2407, 16490, 20292, 8315, 8717, 5016, 4117, 1829, 20666, 4386, 1975, 15730, 12174, 38251, 8315, 16095, 5296, 2304, 16373, 3660, 50113, 15040, 1975, 2407, 5296, 3615, 8592, 25720, 23032, 3555, 3615, 995, 8032, 2304, 3714, 14851, 9778, 40448, 2423, 4426, 794, 3714, 43020, 8717, 14851, 9778, 40448, 2423, 3043, 794, 8717, 4587, 38251, 16095, 5296, 10721, 12610, 6225, 8592, 25720, 4386, 1975, 12610, 6225, 8592, 25720, 4386, 1975, 12610, 6225, 8592, 25720, 4386, 23758, 1975, 12610, 6225, 8592, 25720, 4386, 6055, 7649, 1829, 6225, 8592, 25720, 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" ال", "probability": 0.97900390625}, {"start": 2291.76, "end": 2292.18, "word": " average", "probability": 0.84033203125}, {"start": 2292.18, "end": 2292.42, "word": " we", "probability": 0.79541015625}, {"start": 2292.42, "end": 2292.68, "word": " can", "probability": 0.9375}, {"start": 2292.68, "end": 2293.08, "word": " replace", "probability": 0.939453125}, {"start": 2293.08, "end": 2293.24, "word": " the", "probability": 0.86962890625}, {"start": 2293.24, "end": 2293.58, "word": " average", "probability": 0.80322265625}, {"start": 2293.58, "end": 2293.82, "word": " by", "probability": 0.91748046875}, {"start": 2293.82, "end": 2294.04, "word": " the", "probability": 0.78173828125}, {"start": 2294.04, "end": 2294.24, "word": " risk", "probability": 0.95849609375}, {"start": 2294.24, "end": 2294.58, "word": " free", "probability": 0.66064453125}, {"start": 2294.58, "end": 2296.16, "word": " يعني", "probability": 0.890869140625}, {"start": 2296.16, "end": 2299.18, "word": " شوفوا", "probability": 0.9645182291666666}, {"start": 2299.18, "end": 2299.66, "word": " شايفين", "probability": 0.9000244140625}, {"start": 2299.66, "end": 2300.02, "word": " البيانات", "probability": 0.8892822265625}, {"start": 2300.02, "end": 2300.3, "word": " هذه", "probability": 0.74365234375}, {"start": 2300.3, "end": 2303.78, "word": " البيانات", "probability": 0.947998046875}, {"start": 2303.78, "end": 2304.04, "word": " هذه", "probability": 0.89599609375}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 84, "seek": 233523, "start": 2306.02, "end": 2335.24, "text": "هذه البيانات اللي فيها outliers وروحنا جيبنا ال average طالع حامل حسب ال lower partial standard deviation هذا ال average is misleading so the statisticians or the statistical people and the financial people think the average is misleading so what we can do then is remove the average بدلاش ال average so replace the average with the risk-free", "tokens": [3224, 24192, 2423, 21292, 7649, 9307, 13672, 1829, 8978, 11296, 484, 23646, 4032, 32887, 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"probability": 0.8740234375}, {"start": 2308.56, "end": 2308.9, "word": " جيبنا", "probability": 0.9532470703125}, {"start": 2308.9, "end": 2309.1, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.9541015625}, {"start": 2309.1, "end": 2309.62, "word": " average", "probability": 0.78955078125}, {"start": 2309.62, "end": 2309.88, "word": " طالع", "probability": 0.75}, {"start": 2309.88, "end": 2310.7, "word": " حامل", "probability": 0.8655598958333334}, {"start": 2310.7, "end": 2311.64, "word": " حسب", "probability": 0.949462890625}, {"start": 2311.64, "end": 2311.82, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.86474609375}, {"start": 2311.82, "end": 2312.06, "word": " lower", "probability": 0.677734375}, {"start": 2312.06, "end": 2312.42, "word": " partial", "probability": 0.8876953125}, {"start": 2312.42, "end": 2312.74, "word": " standard", "probability": 0.951171875}, {"start": 2312.74, "end": 2313.3, "word": " deviation", "probability": 0.923828125}, {"start": 2313.3, "end": 2314.26, "word": " هذا", "probability": 0.7841796875}, {"start": 2314.26, "end": 2314.44, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.9892578125}, {"start": 2314.44, "end": 2314.76, "word": " average", "probability": 0.802734375}, {"start": 2314.76, "end": 2315.0, "word": " is", "probability": 0.74853515625}, {"start": 2315.0, "end": 2315.52, "word": " misleading", "probability": 0.98974609375}, {"start": 2315.52, "end": 2317.84, "word": " so", "probability": 0.53173828125}, {"start": 2317.84, "end": 2318.96, "word": " the", "probability": 0.748046875}, {"start": 2318.96, "end": 2320.68, "word": " statisticians", "probability": 0.85205078125}, {"start": 2320.68, "end": 2320.94, "word": " or", "probability": 0.81005859375}, {"start": 2320.94, "end": 2321.12, "word": " the", "probability": 0.5498046875}, {"start": 2321.12, "end": 2321.58, "word": " statistical", "probability": 0.92041015625}, {"start": 2321.58, "end": 2322.1, "word": " people", "probability": 0.97802734375}, {"start": 2322.1, "end": 2322.38, "word": " and", "probability": 0.90966796875}, {"start": 2322.38, "end": 2322.6, "word": " the", "probability": 0.875}, {"start": 2322.6, "end": 2323.02, "word": " financial", "probability": 0.92578125}, {"start": 2323.02, "end": 2323.4, "word": " people", "probability": 0.9775390625}, {"start": 2323.4, "end": 2323.8, "word": " think", "probability": 0.88427734375}, {"start": 2323.8, "end": 2324.48, "word": " the", "probability": 0.814453125}, {"start": 2324.48, "end": 2324.76, "word": " average", "probability": 0.767578125}, {"start": 2324.76, "end": 2324.94, "word": " is", "probability": 0.94921875}, {"start": 2324.94, "end": 2325.34, "word": " misleading", "probability": 0.98974609375}, {"start": 2325.34, "end": 2325.88, "word": " so", "probability": 0.81591796875}, {"start": 2325.88, "end": 2326.08, "word": " what", "probability": 0.962890625}, {"start": 2326.08, "end": 2326.22, "word": " we", "probability": 0.9453125}, {"start": 2326.22, "end": 2326.42, "word": " can", "probability": 0.953125}, {"start": 2326.42, "end": 2326.6, "word": " do", "probability": 0.97216796875}, {"start": 2326.6, "end": 2326.86, "word": " then", "probability": 0.79345703125}, {"start": 2326.86, "end": 2327.82, "word": " is", "probability": 0.95166015625}, {"start": 2327.82, "end": 2328.78, "word": " remove", "probability": 0.9306640625}, {"start": 2328.78, "end": 2328.94, "word": " the", "probability": 0.9404296875}, {"start": 2328.94, "end": 2329.38, "word": " average", "probability": 0.80517578125}, {"start": 2329.38, "end": 2331.58, "word": " بدلاش", "probability": 0.5816243489583334}, {"start": 2331.58, "end": 2331.68, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.9853515625}, {"start": 2331.68, "end": 2331.98, "word": " average", "probability": 0.86669921875}, {"start": 2331.98, "end": 2333.22, "word": " so", "probability": 0.61962890625}, {"start": 2333.22, "end": 2333.86, "word": " replace", "probability": 0.9169921875}, {"start": 2333.86, "end": 2334.08, "word": " the", "probability": 0.896484375}, {"start": 2334.08, "end": 2334.44, "word": " average", "probability": 0.810546875}, {"start": 2334.44, "end": 2334.68, "word": " with", "probability": 0.92529296875}, {"start": 2334.68, "end": 2334.78, "word": " the", "probability": 0.57568359375}, {"start": 2334.78, "end": 2334.96, "word": " risk", "probability": 0.97021484375}, {"start": 2334.96, "end": 2335.24, "word": "-free", "probability": 0.6763916015625}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 85, "seek": 236850, "start": 2339.82, "end": 2368.5, "text": "بنجيب ال average و بنحط ال risk free بلغه okay because the risk free is a parameter or a good indicator for all of the investments فاحنا بنشوف ال risk free وين بيجي أه بيجي أها خلاص فلما بنحسب ال sigma بنقول هذه ال observation ناقصها يعني لما احنا نحسب ال sigma كنا نحسبها R minus R bar okay تربيه divided by N صح؟", "tokens": [3555, 1863, 7435, 1829, 3555, 2423, 4274, 4032, 44945, 5016, 9566, 2423, 3148, 1737, 4724, 1211, 17082, 3224, 1392, 570, 264, 3148, 1737, 307, 257, 13075, 420, 257, 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"word": " sigma", "probability": 0.83935546875}, {"start": 2357.78, "end": 2358.2, "word": " بنقول", "probability": 0.700927734375}, {"start": 2358.2, "end": 2358.88, "word": " هذه", "probability": 0.52783203125}, {"start": 2358.88, "end": 2359.0, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.96044921875}, {"start": 2359.0, "end": 2359.42, "word": " observation", "probability": 0.95263671875}, {"start": 2359.42, "end": 2360.0, "word": " ناقصها", "probability": 0.841650390625}, {"start": 2360.0, "end": 2360.32, "word": " يعني", "probability": 0.930908203125}, {"start": 2360.32, "end": 2360.44, "word": " لما", "probability": 0.596923828125}, {"start": 2360.44, "end": 2360.6, "word": " احنا", "probability": 0.83203125}, {"start": 2360.6, "end": 2360.86, "word": " نحسب", "probability": 0.9109700520833334}, {"start": 2360.86, "end": 2361.0, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.9267578125}, {"start": 2361.0, "end": 2361.34, "word": " sigma", "probability": 0.9599609375}, {"start": 2361.34, "end": 2361.98, 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"start": 2371.1, "end": 2399.44, "text": "في حالة ما نستخدم ال lower partial هنشيل ال R bar ونحط بدلها إيه؟ ال R ال RR بس فهدول بيعتقدوا أنه هيك أدق بيصير so issues need to consider negative deviations separately طبعا هاي negative retained separately بتتوافق مع ال expected shortfalls، مظبوط؟ ها دي بتتوافق مع ال expected shortfalls اللي فاتت", "tokens": [41185, 11331, 6027, 3660, 19446, 8717, 14851, 9778, 40448, 2423, 3126, 14641, 8032, 1863, 8592, 26895, 2423, 497, 2159, 4032, 1863, 5016, 9566, 47525, 1211, 11296, 11933, 1829, 3224, 22807, 2423, 497, 2423, 497, 49, 4724, 3794, 6156, 3224, 3215, 12610, 4724, 1829, 34268, 28543, 14407, 14739, 3224, 39896, 4117, 5551, 3215, 4587, 4724, 1829, 9381, 13546, 370, 2663, 643, 281, 1949, 3671, 31219, 763, 14759, 23032, 3555, 3615, 995, 8032, 47302, 3671, 33438, 14759, 39894, 2655, 14407, 5172, 4587, 20449, 2423, 5176, 2099, 18542, 12399, 3714, 19913, 3555, 2407, 9566, 22807, 8032, 995, 11778, 1829, 39894, 2655, 14407, 5172, 4587, 20449, 2423, 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"probability": 0.85205078125}, {"start": 2397.32, "end": 2397.76, "word": " بتتوافق", "probability": 0.9857421875}, {"start": 2397.76, "end": 2397.9, "word": " مع", "probability": 0.99560546875}, {"start": 2397.9, "end": 2398.0, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.96337890625}, {"start": 2398.0, "end": 2398.34, "word": " expected", "probability": 0.95361328125}, {"start": 2398.34, "end": 2398.84, "word": " shortfalls", "probability": 0.9072265625}, {"start": 2398.84, "end": 2399.02, "word": " اللي", "probability": 0.8740234375}, {"start": 2399.02, "end": 2399.44, "word": " فاتت", "probability": 0.99462890625}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 87, "seek": 241062, "start": 2399.76, "end": 2410.62, "text": "yes لان احنا just focus on the expected shortfalls هذي بس ركزوا على ال negative values", "tokens": [2346, 5296, 7649, 1975, 5016, 8315, 445, 1879, 322, 264, 5176, 2099, 18542, 8032, 8848, 1829, 4724, 3794, 12602, 4117, 11622, 14407, 15844, 2423, 3671, 4190], "avg_logprob": -0.3301504740008601, "compression_ratio": 1.0093457943925233, "no_speech_prob": 5.960464477539063e-08, "words": [{"start": 2399.76, "end": 2400.28, "word": "yes", "probability": 0.2186279296875}, {"start": 2400.28, "end": 2401.1, "word": " لان", "probability": 0.625732421875}, {"start": 2401.1, "end": 2401.26, "word": " احنا", "probability": 0.9225260416666666}, {"start": 2401.26, "end": 2401.44, "word": " just", "probability": 0.71484375}, {"start": 2401.44, "end": 2401.78, "word": " focus", "probability": 0.92822265625}, {"start": 2401.78, "end": 2401.96, "word": " on", "probability": 0.95458984375}, {"start": 2401.96, "end": 2402.18, "word": " the", "probability": 0.83935546875}, {"start": 2402.18, "end": 2404.42, "word": " expected", "probability": 0.92724609375}, {"start": 2404.42, "end": 2405.34, "word": " shortfalls", "probability": 0.77294921875}, {"start": 2405.34, "end": 2406.86, "word": " هذي", "probability": 0.3411865234375}, {"start": 2406.86, "end": 2408.94, "word": " بس", "probability": 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"probability": 0.96240234375}, {"start": 2538.52, "end": 2538.82, "word": " our", "probability": 0.9130859375}, {"start": 2538.82, "end": 2539.18, "word": " data", "probability": 0.96875}, {"start": 2539.18, "end": 2539.44, "word": " is", "probability": 0.96240234375}, {"start": 2539.44, "end": 2539.66, "word": " not", "probability": 0.95654296875}, {"start": 2539.66, "end": 2540.0, "word": " normally", "probability": 0.87744140625}, {"start": 2540.0, "end": 2540.6, "word": " distributed", "probability": 0.91015625}, {"start": 2540.6, "end": 2541.58, "word": " we", "probability": 0.7001953125}, {"start": 2541.58, "end": 2542.52, "word": " cannot", "probability": 0.52734375}, {"start": 2542.52, "end": 2543.4, "word": " ..", "probability": 0.441650390625}, {"start": 2543.4, "end": 2543.46, "word": " we", "probability": 0.91455078125}, {"start": 2543.46, "end": 2543.98, "word": " no", "probability": 0.76953125}, {"start": 2543.98, "end": 2544.38, "word": " longer", "probability": 0.9560546875}, {"start": 2544.38, "end": 2544.72, "word": " use", "probability": 0.87353515625}, {"start": 2544.72, "end": 2545.08, "word": " the", "probability": 0.9228515625}, {"start": 2545.08, "end": 2545.56, "word": " sharp", "probability": 0.86572265625}, {"start": 2545.56, "end": 2545.9, "word": " ratio", "probability": 0.97607421875}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 93, "seek": 257017, "start": 2546.55, "end": 2570.17, "text": "طب what is the solution if our data is not normally distributed we can just replace the standard deviation because the standard deviation is misleading in Sharpe ratio and replace this with the risk-free yes and when we replace it with risk-free it's become Soratino ratio or Sortino", "tokens": [9566, 3555, 437, 307, 264, 3827, 498, 527, 1412, 307, 406, 5646, 12631, 321, 393, 445, 7406, 264, 3832, 25163, 570, 264, 3832, 25163, 307, 36429, 294, 22030, 494, 8509, 293, 7406, 341, 365, 264, 3148, 12, 10792, 2086, 293, 562, 321, 7406, 309, 365, 3148, 12, 10792, 309, 311, 1813, 21421, 267, 2982, 8509, 420, 26149, 2982], "avg_logprob": -0.24059852402089005, "compression_ratio": 1.6764705882352942, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 2546.55, "end": 2546.85, "word": "طب", "probability": 0.938720703125}, {"start": 2546.85, "end": 2547.01, "word": " what", "probability": 0.568359375}, {"start": 2547.01, "end": 2547.13, "word": " is", "probability": 0.95654296875}, {"start": 2547.13, "end": 2547.25, "word": " the", "probability": 0.90478515625}, {"start": 2547.25, "end": 2547.67, "word": " solution", "probability": 0.96728515625}, {"start": 2547.67, "end": 2548.09, "word": " if", "probability": 0.83447265625}, {"start": 2548.09, "end": 2548.39, "word": " our", "probability": 0.91650390625}, {"start": 2548.39, "end": 2548.77, "word": " data", "probability": 0.97021484375}, {"start": 2548.77, "end": 2549.29, "word": " is", "probability": 0.9619140625}, {"start": 2549.29, "end": 2549.97, "word": " not", "probability": 0.958984375}, {"start": 2549.97, "end": 2550.29, "word": " normally", "probability": 0.853515625}, {"start": 2550.29, "end": 2550.87, "word": " distributed", "probability": 0.912109375}, {"start": 2550.87, "end": 2551.81, "word": " we", "probability": 0.442138671875}, {"start": 2551.81, "end": 2552.17, "word": " can", "probability": 0.951171875}, {"start": 2552.17, "end": 2552.45, "word": " just", "probability": 0.91796875}, {"start": 2552.45, "end": 2553.03, "word": " replace", "probability": 0.92919921875}, {"start": 2553.03, "end": 2553.97, "word": " the", "probability": 0.8564453125}, {"start": 2553.97, "end": 2554.25, "word": " standard", "probability": 0.92529296875}, {"start": 2554.25, "end": 2554.63, "word": " deviation", "probability": 0.9248046875}, {"start": 2554.63, "end": 2554.97, "word": " because", "probability": 0.8720703125}, {"start": 2554.97, "end": 2555.17, "word": " the", "probability": 0.74853515625}, {"start": 2555.17, "end": 2555.39, "word": " standard", "probability": 0.92919921875}, {"start": 2555.39, "end": 2555.73, "word": " deviation", "probability": 0.92333984375}, {"start": 2555.73, "end": 2556.01, "word": " is", "probability": 0.953125}, {"start": 2556.01, "end": 2556.47, "word": " misleading", "probability": 0.96484375}, {"start": 2556.47, "end": 2556.73, "word": " in", "probability": 0.79150390625}, {"start": 2556.73, "end": 2556.97, "word": " Sharpe", "probability": 0.67041015625}, {"start": 2556.97, "end": 2557.27, "word": " ratio", "probability": 0.802734375}, {"start": 2557.27, "end": 2557.91, "word": " and", "probability": 0.92041015625}, {"start": 2557.91, "end": 2558.39, "word": " replace", "probability": 0.90185546875}, {"start": 2558.39, "end": 2558.83, "word": " this", "probability": 0.9365234375}, {"start": 2558.83, "end": 2560.11, "word": " with", "probability": 0.8408203125}, {"start": 2560.11, "end": 2560.43, "word": " the", "probability": 0.77294921875}, {"start": 2560.43, "end": 2560.69, "word": " risk", "probability": 0.9443359375}, {"start": 2560.69, "end": 2560.99, "word": "-free", "probability": 0.6611328125}, {"start": 2560.99, "end": 2562.21, "word": " yes", "probability": 0.34130859375}, {"start": 2562.21, "end": 2563.41, "word": " and", "probability": 0.833984375}, {"start": 2563.41, "end": 2563.85, "word": " when", "probability": 0.962890625}, {"start": 2563.85, "end": 2564.05, "word": " we", "probability": 0.96728515625}, {"start": 2564.05, "end": 2564.53, "word": " replace", "probability": 0.92236328125}, {"start": 2564.53, "end": 2564.67, "word": " it", "probability": 0.9501953125}, {"start": 2564.67, "end": 2564.87, "word": " with", "probability": 0.9072265625}, {"start": 2564.87, "end": 2565.17, "word": " risk", "probability": 0.66455078125}, {"start": 2565.17, "end": 2565.65, "word": "-free", "probability": 0.859130859375}, {"start": 2565.65, "end": 2567.03, "word": " it's", "probability": 0.804931640625}, {"start": 2567.03, "end": 2567.47, "word": " become", "probability": 0.87939453125}, {"start": 2567.47, "end": 2568.57, "word": " Soratino", "probability": 0.5776774088541666}, {"start": 2568.57, "end": 2568.99, "word": " ratio", "probability": 0.95751953125}, {"start": 2568.99, "end": 2569.59, "word": " or", "probability": 0.80029296875}, {"start": 2569.59, "end": 2570.17, "word": " Sortino", "probability": 0.782958984375}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 94, "seek": 259950, "start": 2575.82, "end": 2599.5, "text": "So Sortino Ratio is similar to the Sharpe Ratio بقى in .. in .. in the Sortino Ratio just we replace the standard deviation with the risk-free اه حلو والله okay تمام okay", "tokens": [6455, 26149, 2982, 24269, 1004, 307, 2531, 281, 264, 22030, 494, 24269, 1004, 4724, 4587, 7578, 294, 4386, 294, 4386, 294, 264, 26149, 2982, 24269, 1004, 445, 321, 7406, 264, 3832, 25163, 365, 264, 3148, 12, 10792, 1975, 3224, 11331, 1211, 2407, 16070, 43761, 1392, 46811, 10943, 1392], "avg_logprob": -0.3689413167992417, "compression_ratio": 1.326241134751773, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 2575.82, "end": 2576.14, "word": "So", "probability": 0.39697265625}, {"start": 2576.14, "end": 2576.64, "word": " Sortino", "probability": 0.6275634765625}, {"start": 2576.64, "end": 2577.12, "word": " Ratio", "probability": 0.6737060546875}, {"start": 2577.12, "end": 2578.28, "word": " is", "probability": 0.86962890625}, {"start": 2578.28, "end": 2578.68, "word": " similar", "probability": 0.91455078125}, {"start": 2578.68, "end": 2578.88, "word": " to", "probability": 0.9873046875}, {"start": 2578.88, "end": 2579.04, "word": " the", "probability": 0.69873046875}, {"start": 2579.04, "end": 2579.34, "word": " Sharpe", "probability": 0.783447265625}, {"start": 2579.34, "end": 2579.78, "word": " Ratio", "probability": 0.942138671875}, {"start": 2579.78, "end": 2580.8, "word": " بقى", "probability": 0.5952962239583334}, {"start": 2580.8, "end": 2581.06, "word": " in", "probability": 0.82275390625}, {"start": 2581.06, "end": 2581.14, "word": " ..", "probability": 0.338134765625}, {"start": 2581.14, "end": 2581.4, "word": " in", "probability": 0.9248046875}, {"start": 2581.4, "end": 2581.54, "word": " ..", "probability": 0.896484375}, {"start": 2581.54, "end": 2581.66, "word": " in", "probability": 0.953125}, {"start": 2581.66, "end": 2581.82, "word": " the", "probability": 0.78125}, {"start": 2581.82, "end": 2582.36, "word": " Sortino", "probability": 0.886962890625}, {"start": 2582.36, "end": 2582.88, "word": " Ratio", "probability": 0.95068359375}, {"start": 2582.88, "end": 2583.12, "word": " just", "probability": 0.654296875}, {"start": 2583.12, "end": 2583.3, "word": " we", "probability": 0.93359375}, {"start": 2583.3, "end": 2583.8, "word": " replace", "probability": 0.900390625}, {"start": 2583.8, "end": 2584.4, "word": " the", "probability": 0.87646484375}, {"start": 2584.4, "end": 2584.74, "word": " standard", "probability": 0.90380859375}, {"start": 2584.74, "end": 2585.22, "word": " deviation", "probability": 0.943359375}, {"start": 2585.22, "end": 2585.54, "word": " with", "probability": 0.93505859375}, {"start": 2585.54, "end": 2585.7, "word": " the", "probability": 0.7353515625}, {"start": 2585.7, "end": 2585.86, "word": " risk", "probability": 0.93359375}, {"start": 2585.86, "end": 2586.16, "word": "-free", "probability": 0.724365234375}, {"start": 2586.16, "end": 2588.64, "word": " اه", "probability": 0.5252685546875}, {"start": 2588.64, "end": 2588.96, "word": " حلو", "probability": 0.7316080729166666}, {"start": 2588.96, "end": 2589.22, "word": " والله", "probability": 0.788330078125}, {"start": 2589.22, "end": 2592.46, "word": " okay", "probability": 0.103271484375}, {"start": 2592.46, "end": 2598.6, "word": " تمام", "probability": 0.835693359375}, {"start": 2598.6, "end": 2599.5, "word": " okay", "probability": 0.353759765625}], "temperature": 1.0}], "language": "ar", "language_probability": 1.0, "duration": 2602.446, "duration_after_vad": 2451.2749999999915}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/DL94jO4H2JM_raw.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/DL94jO4H2JM_raw.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..6f2d2421cd584f5ed6f8816ae2c29f7ab0b1bb0f
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/DL94jO4H2JM_raw.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,2096 @@
+1
+00:00:22,050 --> 00:00:27,550
+طيب بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم في القائلة فات كنا نحكي
+
+2
+00:00:27,550 --> 00:00:32,110
+عن ال .. إذا كانت ال observation .. if the
+
+3
+00:00:32,110 --> 00:00:35,130
+observation is not follow the normal distribution
+
+4
+00:00:35,130 --> 00:00:40,490
+إذا كانت البيانات مابتتبعش التوزيع الطبيعي okay so
+
+5
+00:00:40,490 --> 00:00:46,030
+how we know the data is not following the normal
+
+6
+00:00:46,030 --> 00:00:50,300
+distributionwe check the skewness skew and we ..
+
+7
+00:00:50,300 --> 00:00:54,660
+we check the cortices احنا بنعمل check على ال ..
+
+8
+00:00:54,660 --> 00:00:59,860
+الالتواء و على التفلطح بيسموه ال skew او skew و ال
+
+9
+00:00:59,860 --> 00:01:05,780
+.. و ال cortices زي ما احنا شوفنا المرة الفاتة و
+
+10
+00:01:05,780 --> 00:01:06,960
+احنا رسمنا مع بعض
+
+11
+00:01:14,280 --> 00:01:19,340
+Okay زي ما اشوف now if you look at this black one
+
+12
+00:01:19,340 --> 00:01:25,120
+so it's skewed to the right if you look at the
+
+13
+00:01:25,120 --> 00:01:32,520
+blue one is skewed to the left so you have to
+
+14
+00:01:32,520 --> 00:01:38,680
+think on three things in skewness if it's skewed
+
+15
+00:01:40,320 --> 00:01:45,340
+وإذا ال data is 0 فهذا يعني تحقيقنا لتنمية عادية
+
+16
+00:01:45,340 --> 00:01:56,400
+إذا ال skew هو positivo وهو أكبر من 0 فال data هو
+
+17
+00:01:56,400 --> 00:02:02,380
+skewed لليسار لليسار وإذا
+
+18
+00:02:02,380 --> 00:02:06,900
+ال skew هو نقل لليسار لليسار
+
+19
+00:02:08,690 --> 00:02:14,230
+إذا كانت على اليسار، يعني أن الانفصالين يتقررون
+
+20
+00:02:14,230 --> 00:02:20,570
+المخاطر تتقرر المخاطر
+
+21
+00:02:20,570 --> 00:02:25,090
+إذا كانت تتقرر على اليسار، يعني أن الانفصالين
+
+22
+00:02:25,090 --> 00:02:33,250
+يتقررون المخاطر تتقرر المخاطر تتقرر المخاطر تتقرر
+
+23
+00:02:33,250 --> 00:02:33,410
+المخاطر تتقرر المخاطر تتقرر المخاطر تتقرر المخاطر
+
+24
+00:02:33,410 --> 00:02:33,530
+تتقرر المخاطر تتقرر المخاطر تتقرر المخاطر تتقرر
+
+25
+00:02:33,530 --> 00:02:33,550
+المخاطر تتقرر المخاطر تتقرر المخاطر تتقرر المخاطر
+
+26
+00:02:33,550 --> 00:02:35,750
+تتقرر المخاطر تتقرر المخاطر تتقرر المخاطر تتقرر
+
+27
+00:02:35,750 --> 00:02:41,100
+المخاطر تالمشكلة هي عندما تكون الملاحظة مرسومة إلى
+
+28
+00:02:41,100 --> 00:02:47,500
+اليسار لأن مايعنيه .. انظر .. انظر هنا .. فقط ..
+
+29
+00:02:47,500 --> 00:02:53,940
+يعني أننا لدينا عدد .. لدينا البيانات مثل هذه ..
+
+30
+00:02:53,940 --> 00:02:58,660
+لذلك إذا كنت نتخيل البيانات .. إذا كنت نتخيل عدد
+
+31
+00:02:58,660 --> 00:03:03,700
+هذا البيانات .. عددها أو الميان يجب أن يكون موجود
+
+32
+00:03:03,700 --> 00:03:08,720
+في الوسطOkay should be located in the middle for
+
+33
+00:03:08,720 --> 00:03:14,760
+instance take this example here if you have like
+
+34
+00:03:14,760 --> 00:03:23,940
+this observation 9% 10% or let's say 12% this is R
+
+35
+00:03:23,940 --> 00:03:30,960
+okay إذا أخدنا بيانات ل R لليوم الأول for instance
+
+36
+00:03:30,960 --> 00:03:38,560
+ليوم التاني التالتالرابع الخامس السادس بيانات R
+
+37
+00:03:38,560 --> 00:03:42,500
+اللي هو ال R ال expected return إذا أخدنا ال R أو
+
+38
+00:03:42,500 --> 00:03:49,560
+ال daily return أخدنا 12% أو for instance 11% 10%
+
+39
+00:03:49,560 --> 00:03:55,930
+7% 6% if we calculate the averageإذا قمنا بتخصيص
+
+40
+00:03:55,930 --> 00:04:03,390
+عدد هذا العدد أو عدد الرسمي هو 12 plus 11 plus 10
+
+41
+00:04:03,390 --> 00:04:11,830
+plus 9 plus 7 plus 6 divided by 1 2 3 4 5 6 مخصومة
+
+42
+00:04:11,830 --> 00:04:18,030
+على 6 احسبوها كام تطلع؟ إذا كان لدينا ملاحظات مثل
+
+43
+00:04:18,030 --> 00:04:18,330
+هذه؟
+
+44
+00:04:24,020 --> 00:04:29,080
+سرعة القلات دايما تكون twelve
+
+45
+00:04:29,080 --> 00:04:36,540
+percent eleven nine seven and finally six six
+
+46
+00:04:36,540 --> 00:04:42,840
+percent nine point one okay so the arithmetic or
+
+47
+00:04:42,840 --> 00:04:45,800
+the average is nine point one look at here so nine
+
+48
+00:04:45,800 --> 00:04:53,860
+point one is located here or somewhere hereمع ذلك
+
+49
+00:04:53,860 --> 00:05:00,220
+يعني أن الملاحظة أو البيانات أو عدد البيانات يكون
+
+50
+00:05:00,220 --> 00:05:05,440
+بين 9 و 10 وهو حوالي نصف البيانات أو اختلاف
+
+51
+00:05:05,440 --> 00:05:12,040
+البيانات إلى اتنين جزء أساسي، هذا يكون حوالي اتنين
+
+52
+00:05:12,040 --> 00:05:19,000
+كهذا، كما قلت إن هذا الجزءالصحيح هو مظهر اليسار
+
+53
+00:05:19,000 --> 00:05:24,100
+الذي يعني أن البيانات تتبع المشاركة الطبيعية لكن
+
+54
+00:05:24,100 --> 00:05:30,540
+المشكلة هي إذا كان لدينا قيم أعظم إذا كان لدينا
+
+55
+00:05:30,540 --> 00:05:34,960
+قيم أعظم أو ما يسمونه الـ outliers إذا كان لدينا
+
+56
+00:05:34,960 --> 00:05:38,720
+outliers على سبيل المثال دعونا نضيف شيء إلى هذه
+
+57
+00:05:38,720 --> 00:05:45,150
+الجزيرة إذا كان لديناالخاطر هو مثلًا يوم واحد نقوم
+
+58
+00:05:45,150 --> 00:05:57,250
+بتسجيل حوالي 400% و 300% ما نشاهده في هذا البرنامج
+
+59
+00:05:57,250 --> 00:05:59,830
+إذا قمنا بالتسجيل من المعلومات لدينا هذه المعلومات
+
+60
+00:05:59,830 --> 00:06:05,030
+الأن لدينا هذه المعلومات الأن و يبدو مثلًا هذا
+
+61
+00:06:05,030 --> 00:06:10,910
+المعلومات يبدو مثلًا هذاهذا الاختلاف الكبير بين
+
+62
+00:06:10,910 --> 00:06:13,550
+الاثنين الملاحظات والمقالات المختلفة من الملاحظات
+
+63
+00:06:13,550 --> 00:06:19,530
+هذا يسمى اختلافات اخرى او اقل قيم اخرى او اقل قيم
+
+64
+00:06:19,530 --> 00:06:27,030
+اخرى تسميهم اخرى او اقل قيم اخرى تسميهم اخرى
+
+65
+00:06:27,030 --> 00:06:27,270
+تسميهم اخرى تسميهم اخرى تسميهم اخرى تسميهم اخرى
+
+66
+00:06:27,270 --> 00:06:27,270
+تسميهم اخرى تسميهم اخرى تسميهم اخرى تسميهم اخرى
+
+67
+00:06:27,270 --> 00:06:27,390
+تسميهم اخرى تسميهم اخرى تسميهم اخرى تسميهم اخرى
+
+68
+00:06:27,390 --> 00:06:27,850
+تسميهم اخرى تسميهم اخرى تسميهم اخرى تسميهم اخرى
+
+69
+00:06:27,850 --> 00:06:29,840
+تسميهم اخرى تسميهم اخرى تسميهم اعيدوا احتساب ال
+
+70
+00:06:29,840 --> 00:06:35,300
+average هنعيد احتساب ال average 400 plus 300 plus
+
+71
+00:06:35,300 --> 00:06:41,580
+12 plus 11 plus 10 plus 9 plus 7 plus 6 divided by
+
+72
+00:06:41,580 --> 00:06:47,520
+8 احسبوا ال average ال average will be in some
+
+73
+00:06:47,520 --> 00:06:55,880
+area in here ال average هيكون في .. احسبوا ال
+
+74
+00:06:55,880 --> 00:06:56,360
+average now
+
+75
+00:07:01,030 --> 00:07:12,910
+كداش طلع 94.3 you see so it is 94.3 so now the
+
+76
+00:07:12,910 --> 00:07:16,750
+average now the average what's what's happened
+
+77
+00:07:16,750 --> 00:07:23,570
+with the data ايش اللي صار في البيانات because yes
+
+78
+00:07:23,570 --> 00:07:27,570
+فينا بيانات شاذة فالبيانات شاذة عملت polling up
+
+79
+00:07:28,540 --> 00:07:31,380
+pulling the data to the top or pulling the average
+
+80
+00:07:31,380 --> 00:07:35,580
+to the top يعني هلأ صار ال average is pulling to
+
+81
+00:07:35,580 --> 00:07:39,700
+the top okay
+
+82
+00:07:39,700 --> 00:07:46,160
+صار في تحيز or there is a bias صار عندي إيه؟ bias
+
+83
+00:07:46,160 --> 00:07:51,140
+in this case the positive look at here the
+
+84
+00:07:51,140 --> 00:07:57,740
+positive is greater than the negativeال outliers
+
+85
+00:07:57,740 --> 00:08:01,000
+ال positive أكتر من ال outliers ال negative we
+
+86
+00:08:01,000 --> 00:08:04,880
+don't have negative outliers here فاللي صار أنه
+
+87
+00:08:04,880 --> 00:08:08,640
+صار عندي التواق لليمين هيكون الشكل تبعوا للشكل
+
+88
+00:08:08,640 --> 00:08:16,140
+هيكون الشكل هيك هيكون في to the right to the right
+
+89
+00:08:16,140 --> 00:08:18,800
+why to the right because we have extreme values
+
+90
+00:08:18,800 --> 00:08:24,020
+فال average the average is move to the right ال
+
+91
+00:08:24,020 --> 00:08:27,130
+average هيروح على ال rightلأن هنا فينا الاربعمية
+
+92
+00:08:27,130 --> 00:08:34,310
+والتلاتمية هم outliers so the outliers try to move
+
+93
+00:08:34,310 --> 00:08:38,550
+the average to the right side هياخد ال average لل
+
+94
+00:08:38,550 --> 00:08:44,010
+right side okay this
+
+95
+00:08:44,010 --> 00:08:51,250
+is why .. this is why we have positive skew and
+
+96
+00:08:51,250 --> 00:08:53,980
+the opposite if we take another example hereإذا
+
+97
+00:08:53,980 --> 00:09:00,120
+أخدنا نفس المثال و
+
+98
+00:09:00,120 --> 00:09:04,320
+خلّينا القيام like this شوفوا القيام like this
+
+99
+00:09:04,320 --> 00:09:10,600
+they say twelve percent eleven ten nine seven six
+
+100
+00:09:10,600 --> 00:09:21,940
+and we have here like point five and minus okay
+
+101
+00:09:23,590 --> 00:09:31,290
+minus fifteen and minus thirty أخدنا القيام هدول
+
+102
+00:09:31,290 --> 00:09:38,370
+فشوفوا عكس الحالة هذي بيكون ال data like this ال
+
+103
+00:09:38,370 --> 00:09:44,810
+average like this then it's like this طب ال
+
+104
+00:09:44,810 --> 00:09:49,390
+outliers وين تحت ولا فوق تحت so it's negative لما
+
+105
+00:09:49,390 --> 00:09:54,020
+بيكون the outliers it meansif the average is here
+
+106
+00:09:54,020 --> 00:10:01,400
+so the outliers try to push it down bowling يعني
+
+107
+00:10:01,400 --> 00:10:06,160
+يسحب bowling up pushing down فهيصير ال average
+
+108
+00:10:06,160 --> 00:10:08,840
+somewhere هنا احسبوا الكلام ده شوفوا واحد و اتنين
+
+109
+00:10:08,840 --> 00:10:17,780
+طيب يعني هتكون بمكان مهم مظبوط the average should
+
+110
+00:10:17,780 --> 00:10:21,780
+be somewhere in herebut the average is moved down
+
+111
+00:10:21,780 --> 00:10:27,500
+because the data is skewed to the left حيكون شكل
+
+112
+00:10:27,500 --> 00:10:39,100
+ال .. شكل ال .. شكله هيك تقريب to
+
+113
+00:10:39,100 --> 00:10:42,360
+the left فبكون هدول ال outliers minus fifteen
+
+114
+00:10:42,360 --> 00:10:49,810
+minus thirty is located somewhere in hereOkay, so
+
+115
+00:10:49,810 --> 00:10:54,890
+because there is no symmetric with the data,
+
+116
+00:10:55,090 --> 00:10:58,430
+generally speaking most people in statistics they
+
+117
+00:10:58,430 --> 00:11:02,690
+ignore these things, they ignore this, الناس كلهم
+
+118
+00:11:02,690 --> 00:11:07,070
+بيتجهلوهم, يعني بيتجهلوهم, but in finance we
+
+119
+00:11:07,070 --> 00:11:11,350
+should consider them, in the first case look at
+
+120
+00:11:11,350 --> 00:11:18,000
+here, in this onewhen the .. when the data .. when
+
+121
+00:11:18,000 --> 00:11:23,180
+the data is positive when we have outliers greater
+
+122
+00:11:23,180 --> 00:11:27,900
+than the average it means we have a positive skew
+
+123
+00:11:27,900 --> 00:11:32,100
+but here we have negative skew and because we have
+
+124
+00:11:32,100 --> 00:11:37,680
+positive skew it means لأنه إذا كان عندنا skew ما
+
+125
+00:11:37,680 --> 00:11:41,200
+أنت عارف .. هعرفنا ال skew يعني هالتوا صح؟ إذا
+
+126
+00:11:41,200 --> 00:11:47,120
+كانت موجب positiveبكون عندي over estimate و إذا
+
+127
+00:11:47,120 --> 00:11:54,220
+كانت negative under estimate طيب this is the
+
+128
+00:11:54,220 --> 00:11:58,940
+importance of skew هذا أهمية ال skew نيجي نحكي عن
+
+129
+00:11:58,940 --> 00:12:06,280
+ال cortices على ال cortices خلينا نذكركم بس
+
+130
+00:12:06,280 --> 00:12:11,220
+بالقانون تبع ال skew how to calculate the skew بس
+
+131
+00:12:11,220 --> 00:12:20,580
+يعني القانونبتعرفوا انه Q is equal R minus R bar
+
+132
+00:12:20,580 --> 00:12:29,160
+okay cubed divided by sigma cubed هذا هو ال raise
+
+133
+00:12:29,160 --> 00:12:34,460
+to the power three الكورتوسيز ايش بيقيس الكورتوسيز
+
+134
+00:12:34,460 --> 00:12:38,500
+الكورتوسيز is measure to what extent our data is
+
+135
+00:12:38,500 --> 00:12:43,030
+flatيعني ال I درجة بيكون ال بيانات تبعتنا flat
+
+136
+00:12:43,030 --> 00:12:55,930
+ناخد نتالي لو
+
+137
+00:12:55,930 --> 00:13:03,270
+شوفنا احنا هذا
+
+138
+00:13:03,270 --> 00:13:06,430
+ايش رأيكوا؟ هذا normal distribution ولا ايش؟ this
+
+139
+00:13:06,430 --> 00:13:07,370
+is normal distribution
+
+140
+00:13:11,120 --> 00:13:18,920
+هذا normal distribution توزيع طبيعي هذا
+
+141
+00:13:18,920 --> 00:13:24,980
+فيه توزيع طبيعي why because the right side is
+
+142
+00:13:24,980 --> 00:13:27,840
+approximately equal to the left side يعني الجانب
+
+143
+00:13:27,840 --> 00:13:34,160
+اليمين تقريبا يشبه الجانب الشمال okay طيب so the
+
+144
+00:13:34,160 --> 00:13:41,080
+thing is now the thing is the thing is nowإذا ننظر
+
+145
+00:13:41,080 --> 00:13:44,980
+إلى الجانب اليسار هو تقريبًا يقل الجانب اليسار،
+
+146
+00:13:44,980 --> 00:13:50,140
+إذا كان لدينا كورتوسيه، يعني أن البيانات أكتر
+
+147
+00:13:50,140 --> 00:13:54,500
+مطمئنة من المشاركة الطبيعية، يبدو هكذا
+
+148
+00:14:14,330 --> 00:14:17,730
+So the data .. this is .. this one this means we
+
+149
+00:14:17,730 --> 00:14:20,490
+have a very narrow mean .. mean and the data is
+
+150
+00:14:20,490 --> 00:14:26,830
+flat is scattered in the left and scattered in the
+
+151
+00:14:26,830 --> 00:14:29,390
+.. in the right or in the right and in the left if
+
+152
+00:14:29,390 --> 00:14:35,750
+you see here there is a space between this line
+
+153
+00:14:35,750 --> 00:14:39,030
+with this line but with this one there is .. there
+
+154
+00:14:39,030 --> 00:14:43,430
+is a limit يعني إذا إحنا بناحي البيانات موجودة هون
+
+155
+00:14:46,170 --> 00:14:53,130
+هنجيب بال Cortices ان
+
+156
+00:14:53,130 --> 00:14:57,050
+البيانات تأخذ بعض المكان هنا و بعض المكان هنا
+
+157
+00:14:57,050 --> 00:15:04,630
+هنلاقي بيانات فوق و لاتحت و في الوسط كيف نحسب ال
+
+158
+00:15:04,630 --> 00:15:08,530
+Cortices كيف احنا بنحسب ال Cortices The Cortices
+
+159
+00:15:08,530 --> 00:15:20,920
+is equal to R minus R bar ريز تو البرور فور ريز
+
+160
+00:15:20,920 --> 00:15:21,760
+تو البرور فور ريز تو البرور فور ريز تو البرور فور
+
+161
+00:15:21,760 --> 00:15:22,760
+ريز تو البرور فور ريز تو البرور فور ريز تو البرور
+
+162
+00:15:22,760 --> 00:15:29,180
+فور ريز تو البرور فور ريز تو البرور فور ريز تو
+
+163
+00:15:29,180 --> 00:15:32,180
+البرور فور ريز تو البرور فور ريز تو البرور فور ريز
+
+164
+00:15:32,180 --> 00:15:32,180
+تو البرور فور ريز تو البرور فور ريز تو البرور فور
+
+165
+00:15:32,180 --> 00:15:32,180
+ريز تو البرور فور ريز تو البرور فور ريز تو البرور
+
+166
+00:15:32,180 --> 00:15:33,860
+فور ريز تو البرور فور ريز تو البرور فور ريز تو
+
+167
+00:15:33,860 --> 00:15:41,320
+البرور فور ريز تو البرور فور ريز
+
+168
+00:15:41,320 --> 00:15:46,930
+تلحظة يا تيه إذا قمنا بالتخيل هذا الجانب بشكل
+
+169
+00:15:46,930 --> 00:15:51,230
+مختلف و إذا كانت البيانات تتبع اتجارة عادية فهذا
+
+170
+00:15:51,230 --> 00:15:55,790
+يجب أن يكون ثلاثة إذا كانت النتيجة ثلاثة ثلاثة أقل
+
+171
+00:15:55,790 --> 00:16:00,010
+ثلاثة ثم ننتهي بزيرولذلك إذا كانت النتيجة صحيحة
+
+172
+00:16:00,010 --> 00:16:06,870
+إذا كانت النتيجة صحيحة إذا كانت النتيجة صحيحة إذا
+
+173
+00:16:06,870 --> 00:16:07,170
+كانت النتيجة صحيحة إذا كانت النتيجة صحيحة إذا كانت
+
+174
+00:16:07,170 --> 00:16:08,990
+النتيجة صحيحة إذا كانت النتيجة صحيحة إذا كانت
+
+175
+00:16:08,990 --> 00:16:09,610
+النتيجة صحيحة إذا كانت النتيجة صحيحة إذا كانت
+
+176
+00:16:09,610 --> 00:16:11,190
+النتيجة صحيحة إذا كانت النتيجة صحيحة إذا كانت
+
+177
+00:16:11,190 --> 00:16:13,210
+النتيجة صحيحة إذا كانت النتيجة صحيحة إذا كانت
+
+178
+00:16:13,210 --> 00:16:18,530
+النتيجة صحيحة إذا كانت النتيجة صحيحة إذا كانت
+
+179
+00:16:18,530 --> 00:16:23,510
+النتيجة صحيحة إذا
+
+180
+00:16:23,510 --> 00:16:27,330
+كانت
+
+181
+00:16:27,330 --> 00:16:30,840
+النتيجة صحيحةهي تطلع على المعادلة المعادلة فيها
+
+182
+00:16:30,840 --> 00:16:34,500
+إلها شقين هذه ناقص تلاتة إذا طلع هذا الجواب تلاتة
+
+183
+00:16:34,500 --> 00:16:38,280
+تلاتة ناقص تلاتة so it's equal zero إذا كان zero
+
+184
+00:16:38,280 --> 00:16:43,440
+بيكون هذا شوف هذه بيكون zero لأن هاي touch the
+
+185
+00:16:43,440 --> 00:16:47,120
+line and this is touch the line but if it is
+
+186
+00:16:47,120 --> 00:16:51,400
+greater than three شوف إذا كان هذا جوابي greater
+
+187
+00:16:51,400 --> 00:16:55,440
+than three then it's greater than zero so we have
+
+188
+00:16:55,440 --> 00:16:59,070
+corticesOkay, so this is the problem.
+
+189
+00:17:02,490 --> 00:17:10,370
+Now, again the Skew and Cortices help the
+
+190
+00:17:10,370 --> 00:17:12,690
+researcher and help financial people or investors
+
+191
+00:17:12,690 --> 00:17:17,470
+to mention the data are normally distributed or
+
+192
+00:17:17,470 --> 00:17:22,230
+not. إذا كانت البيانات تبعتهم موزعة توزيع طبيعي
+
+193
+00:17:22,230 --> 00:17:23,090
+ولا لأ؟
+
+194
+00:17:27,160 --> 00:17:30,700
+الcortices بيبنوا like this طلع البيانات scattered
+
+195
+00:17:30,700 --> 00:17:34,140
+بيكون في outliers in the top and outliers in the
+
+196
+00:17:34,140 --> 00:17:39,280
+bottom and we have something in the middle فبتكون
+
+197
+00:17:39,280 --> 00:17:43,700
+في زي πاي باي observation أو binomial بتكونش
+
+198
+00:17:43,700 --> 00:17:46,600
+البيانات is focused on the average يعني زي ما انت
+
+199
+00:17:46,600 --> 00:17:51,740
+شايفها هان in this one red one the most of our
+
+200
+00:17:51,740 --> 00:17:57,200
+data look at here most of our dataموجودة في مكان
+
+201
+00:17:57,200 --> 00:18:03,100
+ما هنا وهو حوالي 68% من البيانات الموجودة هنا ولكن
+
+202
+00:18:03,100 --> 00:18:09,320
+إذا كنت تنظر إلى الـ blue one حوالي 30% من
+
+203
+00:18:09,320 --> 00:18:12,800
+بياناتنا موجودة في الأعلى أو موجودة في ال ..
+
+204
+00:18:12,800 --> 00:18:18,700
+والباقية من بياناتنا موجودة في الخارج ممكننا أن
+
+205
+00:18:18,700 --> 00:18:23,600
+نلاحظ مثل هذا إذا أردنا لدينا بيانات مثل هذه و
+
+206
+00:18:23,600 --> 00:18:28,520
+لدينا بيانات مثل هذهو لدينا مصادر مثل هذه حسنا اذا
+
+207
+00:18:28,520 --> 00:18:36,000
+ماهي عاملة؟ عاملة مخططة لهم لأن حسنا ربما العاملة
+
+208
+00:18:36,000 --> 00:18:43,300
+في هنا لذا لدينا شيء هنا و لدينا شيء هنا لذلك إذا
+
+209
+00:18:43,300 --> 00:18:49,600
+قمنا بترتيب هذا في مقالة ننتهي بمقالة بلوOkay,
+
+210
+00:18:50,140 --> 00:18:53,060
+this is .. it's like this has two wings, two big
+
+211
+00:18:53,060 --> 00:18:57,460
+wings يعني هناخد for instance look at here two big
+
+212
+00:18:57,460 --> 00:19:02,220
+wings الناس
+
+213
+00:19:02,220 --> 00:19:05,720
+.. بعض الناس مش كتير في ال statistics so بتاع
+
+214
+00:19:05,720 --> 00:19:10,020
+they're ignoring the outlines فاحنا بالنسبة لل
+
+215
+00:19:10,020 --> 00:19:14,540
+finance outlines are important why outlines are
+
+216
+00:19:14,540 --> 00:19:16,820
+important because indicate something in finance
+
+217
+00:19:17,510 --> 00:19:19,830
+الناس تتعامل بـ Overestimation عندما تكون لديها
+
+218
+00:19:19,830 --> 00:19:23,310
+إتجار مفيد والناس تتعامل ب Underestimate Risk
+
+219
+00:19:23,310 --> 00:19:30,470
+عندما تكون لديها إتجار مفيد حسنا
+
+220
+00:19:30,470 --> 00:19:34,270
+الآن
+
+221
+00:19:34,270 --> 00:19:42,370
+دعونا نتحدث عن إتجار مفقود وهو مهم أيضا في
+
+222
+00:19:42,370 --> 00:19:50,930
+الوزيارة لأنof this look at here as I said we have
+
+223
+00:19:50,930 --> 00:19:55,530
+data like this this is normal and then we have
+
+224
+00:19:55,530 --> 00:20:01,050
+outliers like this اذا احنا أخدنا observations R
+
+225
+00:20:01,050 --> 00:20:05,530
+زي هيك مع الكلام هدول ال average بيكون somewhere
+
+226
+00:20:05,530 --> 00:20:09,050
+هنا because of this outliers maybe the average
+
+227
+00:20:09,050 --> 00:20:14,230
+will go down هيكون جريب لهدولOkay so what the
+
+228
+00:20:14,230 --> 00:20:18,390
+problem then is this positive skew or negative
+
+229
+00:20:18,390 --> 00:20:23,070
+okay this positive or negative why it is negative
+
+230
+00:20:23,070 --> 00:20:27,070
+because لأنه هيسحبوه من التحت okay so we have
+
+231
+00:20:27,070 --> 00:20:33,150
+negative and if we draw the negative so
+
+232
+00:20:33,150 --> 00:20:37,230
+this is this is a negative skew to the right to
+
+233
+00:20:37,230 --> 00:20:44,670
+the leftوإذا قمت بإرسالهم هنا، فسنلاحظ أن البيانات
+
+234
+00:20:44,670 --> 00:20:53,410
+هنا ونلاحظ ما يوجد هنا، الـ outliers، حسنًا؟
+
+235
+00:20:53,410 --> 00:20:59,790
+الأن هذه الـ outliers، لأنها في الجانات المفارقة،
+
+236
+00:20:59,790 --> 00:21:06,850
+نسميها قيمة في خطرbe careful we write it values at
+
+237
+00:21:06,850 --> 00:21:10,650
+risk we are not writing like this this is var
+
+238
+00:21:10,650 --> 00:21:13,950
+which is variance and this is values at risk
+
+239
+00:21:13,950 --> 00:21:19,930
+values at risk what it means values at risk values
+
+240
+00:21:19,930 --> 00:21:26,370
+at risk it means قيم معرضة للخطر بالظبط قيم معرضة
+
+241
+00:21:26,370 --> 00:21:31,990
+للخطر يعني لو جينا احنا رصدنا درجات الطلابلا يا
+
+242
+00:21:31,990 --> 00:21:35,010
+بابا مش ال variance احنا حكينا look be careful
+
+243
+00:21:35,010 --> 00:21:38,150
+this is not not variance هذا مش whole variance
+
+244
+00:21:38,150 --> 00:21:44,970
+this is values at risk زي ما حكت انه قيم معرضة
+
+245
+00:21:44,970 --> 00:21:53,570
+للخطر values at risk values at risk قيم معرضة
+
+246
+00:21:53,570 --> 00:21:58,250
+للخطر طيب هلا مثلا أجينا احنا أخدنا درجات الطلاب
+
+247
+00:21:59,240 --> 00:22:04,140
+لجينا الطلاب في تسعين تمانين خمسين سبعين ستين ف ال
+
+248
+00:22:04,140 --> 00:22:07,980
+values at risk هي ال values ال extreme negative
+
+249
+00:22:07,980 --> 00:22:14,900
+يعني أخدنا درجة الطلاب لجينا فينا تسعين خمس و
+
+250
+00:22:14,900 --> 00:22:21,460
+تسعين تمانين خمس و تمانين سبعين تسعة و ستين سبعين
+
+251
+00:22:21,460 --> 00:22:25,500
+خمس و تمانين okay و بعدين لجينا عشرين عشرة خمس و
+
+252
+00:22:25,500 --> 00:22:30,760
+أستعشسجلنا درجة الطلاب and we found like this
+
+253
+00:22:30,760 --> 00:22:34,000
+لقينا درجات الطلاب where is the values at risk
+
+254
+00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:39,940
+هدول هما ال 20, 10, 15 هدول values at risk هدول
+
+255
+00:22:39,940 --> 00:22:44,260
+values at risk will move the will move the average
+
+256
+00:22:44,260 --> 00:22:49,160
+down وبالتالي ال average هيصير misleading the
+
+257
+00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:52,460
+problem is now from the investment point of view
+
+258
+00:22:52,460 --> 00:22:56,650
+من وجهة نظر المستثمرينto what extent these people
+
+259
+00:22:56,650 --> 00:23:02,610
+are at risk؟ لأي درجة ان هدول ال people في خطر؟
+
+260
+00:23:02,610 --> 00:23:07,010
+لأي درجة هدول الطلاب عندهم .. okay let's things in
+
+261
+00:23:07,010 --> 00:23:13,870
+different ways values at risk measures worst loss
+
+262
+00:23:13,870 --> 00:23:21,570
+أسوأ خسارة يعني بنيجي و بنقول احنا ما هي أسوأ
+
+263
+00:23:21,570 --> 00:23:28,470
+خسارة ممكن نحصل عليها بالفصلأسوأ نتيجة يعني
+
+264
+00:23:28,470 --> 00:23:35,750
+لأ يعني أكم طالب يرصب بنيجي نقول أسوأ نتيجة ممكن
+
+265
+00:23:35,750 --> 00:23:42,350
+نحصل عليها يعني جداش أن عدد طلاب مثلا ستين بنقول
+
+266
+00:23:42,350 --> 00:23:46,650
+احنا حسب الحسابات تبعنا أسوأ نتيجة ممكن نحصل عليها
+
+267
+00:23:46,650 --> 00:23:53,050
+أنه يرصب تلاتة في المية أو بطريقة ثانية أسوأ نتيجة
+
+268
+00:23:54,240 --> 00:24:00,240
+نحصل عليها انه ماتزدش الخسارة بتاعتنا عن 3% this
+
+269
+00:24:00,240 --> 00:24:05,220
+is fine or in other words او بطريقة أخرى نقول أسوأ
+
+270
+00:24:05,220 --> 00:24:11,160
+نتيجة انه احنا نحصل عليها انه النجاح يكون اقل من
+
+271
+00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:17,640
+97% النجاح يكون اقل من 97% نفس ال 3% نفس الفكرة
+
+272
+00:24:17,640 --> 00:24:24,360
+يعني احنا قلنا او النجاح مايزدش عن 97%فبكون لما
+
+273
+00:24:24,360 --> 00:24:28,960
+أقول النجاح مايسدش عن 97% it means أن أسوأ خسارة
+
+274
+00:24:28,960 --> 00:24:33,400
+ممكن نحصل عليها 3% from investment point of view
+
+275
+00:24:33,400 --> 00:24:38,580
+ممكن من وجهة نظر الاستثمار okay what is the worst
+
+276
+00:24:38,580 --> 00:24:45,740
+loss ما هي أسوأ خسارة ممكن نحصل عليها so we need
+
+277
+00:24:45,740 --> 00:24:49,060
+to calculate values at risk عشان نحصل على أسوأ
+
+278
+00:24:49,060 --> 00:24:52,700
+خسارة there are three methods to calculate values
+
+279
+00:24:52,700 --> 00:24:58,130
+at riskin your handbook is only one method فى
+
+280
+00:24:58,130 --> 00:25:03,870
+الكتاب تبعك موجود بس methods واحدة okay and this
+
+281
+00:25:03,870 --> 00:25:06,490
+method is called Monte Carlo method مش موجودة
+
+282
+00:25:06,490 --> 00:25:09,630
+بالكتاب إن اسمها Monte Carlo لكن أنا بقولكوا إيها
+
+283
+00:25:09,630 --> 00:25:13,530
+it is Monte Carlo فممكن بال corrections و لا بالصح
+
+284
+00:25:13,530 --> 00:25:15,490
+و الغلط تقولوا والله يا عزيزي مش موجودة بالكتاب no
+
+285
+00:25:15,490 --> 00:25:19,370
+I'm telling you now this method is Monte Carlo
+
+286
+00:25:23,640 --> 00:25:29,100
+اسم الطريقة اسمها Monte Carlo okay في Monte Carlo
+
+287
+00:25:29,100 --> 00:25:32,580
+في إذاعة اسمها Monte Carlo في دراسة اسمها Monte
+
+288
+00:25:32,580 --> 00:25:39,820
+Carlo so the normal so the values at risk is equal
+
+289
+00:25:39,820 --> 00:25:52,890
+a mu which is the average minus z times sigmaو
+
+290
+00:25:52,890 --> 00:25:58,530
+سنشرح ماذا يعني Z يعني
+
+291
+00:25:58,530 --> 00:26:02,950
+ميو
+
+292
+00:26:02,950 --> 00:26:11,090
+او عامل مانوس سيجما زد مانوس زد يعني عامل عامل
+
+293
+00:26:11,090 --> 00:26:15,150
+عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل
+
+294
+00:26:15,150 --> 00:26:16,530
+عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل
+
+295
+00:26:16,530 --> 00:26:17,790
+عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل
+
+296
+00:26:17,790 --> 00:26:17,810
+عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل
+
+297
+00:26:17,810 --> 00:26:17,810
+عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل
+
+298
+00:26:17,810 --> 00:26:17,810
+عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل عامل
+
+299
+00:26:17,810 --> 00:26:17,810
+ع
+
+300
+00:26:21,460 --> 00:26:24,720
+the critical value اللي هو القيمة الحرجة بتسميها
+
+301
+00:26:24,720 --> 00:26:30,440
+okay what it means القيمة الحرجة فاكرين القيمة
+
+302
+00:26:30,440 --> 00:26:38,560
+الحرجة at a particular confidence
+
+303
+00:26:38,560 --> 00:26:43,960
+level عند
+
+304
+00:26:43,960 --> 00:26:48,600
+مستوى معنوية أو مستوى ثقة معين خلّيني أجي نقول
+
+305
+00:26:49,520 --> 00:26:54,560
+تطلعوا على التلات مقالات الموجودين هنا لنفترض أن
+
+306
+00:26:54,560 --> 00:26:59,960
+هدول بمثله minus 30% و minus 20% و minus .. خلّيني
+
+307
+00:26:59,960 --> 00:27:04,140
+minus 30% و minus 20% هدول النقطتين الموجودين هنا
+
+308
+00:27:04,140 --> 00:27:10,760
+اللي هم ال extreme negative values okay هلأ بنحكي
+
+309
+00:27:10,760 --> 00:27:15,900
+what is .. what is the worst loss
+
+310
+00:27:19,890 --> 00:27:28,490
+95% ما هي أسوأ خسارة ممكن نحصل عليها عند 95% then
+
+311
+00:27:28,490 --> 00:27:36,010
+we apply this هنطبق هذه ال average معروف وال sigma
+
+312
+00:27:36,010 --> 00:27:39,910
+معروفة ال standard deviation معروف بيضل ال z ايش
+
+313
+00:27:39,910 --> 00:27:46,730
+ال z هذه ال z عند 95% اللي هي المنطقة هذه عند 95%
+
+314
+00:27:46,730 --> 00:27:53,260
+بتساوي 1.65أخدتها بال .. بتنجح بين الجدول اللي هو
+
+315
+00:27:53,260 --> 00:27:55,980
+بال .. اللي أخدتها من الإحسان اه one point six
+
+316
+00:27:55,980 --> 00:28:00,980
+five فبصير احنا ال MUE minus one point six five
+
+317
+00:28:00,980 --> 00:28:07,480
+times sigma نفترض الجواب تلعنا minus twenty
+
+318
+00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:11,700
+percent ايش معناه what it means ايش معناه ماعرفت
+
+319
+00:28:11,700 --> 00:28:16,040
+عشان عشانين تمية أسوأ خسارة ممكن احنا نحصل عليها
+
+320
+00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:22,630
+من الاستثمار في Aما بتزيد عن minus 20% in other
+
+321
+00:28:22,630 --> 00:28:26,470
+words the worst loss that we can take when we
+
+322
+00:28:26,470 --> 00:28:32,990
+invest in A is not greater than 20% or minus 20%
+
+323
+00:28:32,990 --> 00:28:43,430
+أو بطريقة أخرى أنه we are hundred percent sure or
+
+324
+00:28:43,430 --> 00:28:50,040
+five percentيعني احنا حكينا عن 95% هيك 95% وها 5%
+
+325
+00:28:50,040 --> 00:28:57,100
+بنسبة 5% احنا بنكون متأكدين انه البيانات الخسائر
+
+326
+00:28:57,100 --> 00:29:06,720
+تبعتنا مش هتزيد عن .. مش هتزيد عن 20% okay هذه إذا
+
+327
+00:29:06,720 --> 00:29:13,040
+كانت negative values طيب
+
+328
+00:29:15,120 --> 00:29:18,240
+إذا ال values ال risk بتقيس لإيه؟ أهم إيش تعرفوا
+
+329
+00:29:18,240 --> 00:29:23,060
+هذا ال loss loss أسوأ خسارة ممكن إحنا نحصل عليها
+
+330
+00:29:23,060 --> 00:29:26,780
+and we compare زي ما شوفنا ال loss loss we compare
+
+331
+00:29:26,780 --> 00:29:32,300
+the average values with the negative values
+
+332
+00:29:43,920 --> 00:29:46,320
+So the values at risk just to remind you with the
+
+333
+00:29:46,320 --> 00:29:50,020
+values at risk a measure of loss most frequently
+
+334
+00:29:50,020 --> 00:29:51,960
+associated with the extreme negative returns
+
+335
+00:29:51,960 --> 00:29:55,640
+العلاج بالextreme negative returns be careful is
+
+336
+00:29:55,640 --> 00:30:00,300
+not related to the positive return is related to
+
+337
+00:30:00,300 --> 00:30:03,460
+the extreme negative return values at risk is the
+
+338
+00:30:03,460 --> 00:30:07,800
+quantile of a distribution below which lies Q
+
+339
+00:30:07,800 --> 00:30:10,620
+percent of the possible values of that
+
+340
+00:30:10,620 --> 00:30:12,820
+distribution يعني ما هو احتمال انه نحصل على
+
+341
+00:30:13,590 --> 00:30:16,510
+outliers في المنطقة هذه مالكو مش كتير في هذا
+
+342
+00:30:16,510 --> 00:30:18,650
+الكلام لإن هم عرفوا ليه هذا، هذا شوية صعب عادي
+
+343
+00:30:18,650 --> 00:30:26,890
+okay the five percent values at risk في ناس
+
+344
+00:30:26,890 --> 00:30:29,830
+بيعتبروا ال values at risk هي ال probability هي
+
+345
+00:30:29,830 --> 00:30:35,250
+إيش احتمالية is the probability to make loss هي
+
+346
+00:30:35,250 --> 00:30:40,950
+احتمال جديش احنا الاحتمال نخسردائما الناس بتنظر لل
+
+347
+00:30:40,950 --> 00:30:45,010
+.. للربح لكن احنا في ال finance و ال investment
+
+348
+00:30:45,010 --> 00:30:48,930
+برضه بنشوف ما هو احتمال ان احنا نخسر بتعطينا ال
+
+349
+00:30:48,930 --> 00:30:53,230
+investment option commonly estimated in practice
+
+350
+00:30:53,230 --> 00:30:57,650
+هذه كتير مستخدمة في الحياة العملية اللي هو ال
+
+351
+00:30:57,650 --> 00:31:01,210
+values at risk صحيح ان انت .. you first time to ..
+
+352
+00:31:01,210 --> 00:31:04,730
+to hear about this to know about this but this is
+
+353
+00:31:04,730 --> 00:31:08,290
+commonly used in practiceكتير ناس بيستخدموها في
+
+354
+00:31:08,290 --> 00:31:11,550
+الحياة العملية ممكن ناس يكونوا مش خرجين جامعات
+
+355
+00:31:11,550 --> 00:31:15,410
+يعني unfortunately you are in the university and
+
+356
+00:31:15,410 --> 00:31:17,570
+you are the first time to know about this but some
+
+357
+00:31:17,570 --> 00:31:19,990
+people is not in the university and they know
+
+358
+00:31:19,990 --> 00:31:23,670
+about this فى ناس مش أصلا مارحوش على الجامعة و
+
+359
+00:31:23,670 --> 00:31:25,890
+they know their values at risk and they asking
+
+360
+00:31:25,890 --> 00:31:29,690
+themselves إيش أسوأ إيش ممكن نسويه مرات يعني even
+
+361
+00:31:29,690 --> 00:31:33,520
+me sometimes what is the worst thingif you know
+
+362
+00:31:33,520 --> 00:31:36,500
+the worst things is fine يعني إيش أسوأ إشي ممكن
+
+363
+00:31:36,500 --> 00:31:39,700
+يصير and build your decision based on the worst
+
+364
+00:31:39,700 --> 00:31:44,500
+thing على أسوأ إشي دائما احنا we are looking to
+
+365
+00:31:44,500 --> 00:31:48,780
+the future as a flourish a future and we ignoring
+
+366
+00:31:48,780 --> 00:31:51,860
+the worst things يعني بنشوف المستقبل أحسن إشي و
+
+367
+00:31:51,860 --> 00:31:55,620
+أحلى إشي ف sometimes you have to look back and to
+
+368
+00:31:55,620 --> 00:31:58,360
+see if the worst thing happened what you can do
+
+369
+00:31:58,360 --> 00:32:02,870
+then إذا أسوأ إشي صار شو نعمل؟from the investment
+
+370
+00:32:02,870 --> 00:32:08,250
+point of view من وجهة نظر المستثمرين، so if you
+
+371
+00:32:08,250 --> 00:32:10,790
+know the worst things so you can easily manage the
+
+372
+00:32:10,790 --> 00:32:13,870
+investment لكن if you don't know the worst things
+
+373
+00:32:13,870 --> 00:32:17,630
+so how you can know thisso commonly estimated in
+
+374
+00:32:17,630 --> 00:32:20,790
+practice كتير مشهورة بال practice is the return at
+
+375
+00:32:20,790 --> 00:32:25,490
+the fifth percentile okay يعني ال .. ال .. ال ..
+
+376
+00:32:25,490 --> 00:32:28,930
+بتعرفوا ال .. أخدتوا الأشاير؟ أخدتوا الأشاير و
+
+377
+00:32:28,930 --> 00:32:33,250
+الربيع؟ الربيع الأول؟ الربيع التان؟ هذا هو الزمان
+
+378
+00:32:33,250 --> 00:32:37,070
+أخدته يعني هي بتيجي بعد ما أنا قسم البيانات شوف
+
+379
+00:32:37,070 --> 00:32:41,730
+عندي بيانات في عندى observation أه بقسمها إلى
+
+380
+00:32:41,730 --> 00:32:47,650
+أشيريات percentilesف percentile انه احنا بنقسم
+
+381
+00:32:47,650 --> 00:32:51,330
+البيانات من ال .. البيانات .. البيانات بنقسمها من
+
+382
+00:32:51,330 --> 00:32:56,550
+أعلى إلى أقل وبنقسمها إلى .. إلى عشيريات أول عشرات
+
+383
+00:32:56,550 --> 00:33:00,110
+.. يعني مثلا جيبنا درجات الطلاب مثلا جيبنا درجات
+
+384
+00:33:00,110 --> 00:33:05,850
+الطلاب من تسعين لسفر مش لمية أو من مية لسفرأه من
+
+385
+00:33:05,850 --> 00:33:11,170
+مية لسفر بعدين جسمنا عملنا لهم ranking و روحنا
+
+386
+00:33:11,170 --> 00:33:14,470
+جيبنا أول عشر طلاب بعدين تانية عشر طلاب تالت عشر
+
+387
+00:33:14,470 --> 00:33:18,930
+طلاب رابعة و .. and so on هنجرى أنه احنا حسب ..
+
+388
+00:33:18,930 --> 00:33:22,270
+هذا بيسموه percentile هذا إيش اسمه؟ في عندنا شغل
+
+389
+00:33:22,270 --> 00:33:26,210
+اسمه quartile و في quantile و في عندنا percentile
+
+390
+00:33:26,210 --> 00:33:31,950
+okay بقى percent اللي هو الربيع و الأشير و المهم
+
+391
+00:33:32,700 --> 00:33:36,460
+ففي ال percentile او خلينا نحكي بال .. اذا قسمناهم
+
+392
+00:33:36,460 --> 00:33:40,420
+لمائة مثلا او لعشرة طبعا هم مستخدم ال quantile
+
+393
+00:33:40,420 --> 00:33:43,880
+ممكن نستخدم ال percentile نقسمهم لأول عشرة .. اول
+
+394
+00:33:43,880 --> 00:33:46,320
+عشرة .. اول عشرة .. هذا اول عشرة .. تاني عشرة ..
+
+395
+00:33:46,320 --> 00:33:50,440
+ال values at risk هي بتكون بالعشرات اللي تحت يعني
+
+396
+00:33:50,440 --> 00:33:53,340
+بالنسبة للطلاب ال values عشان انا اعرف where is
+
+397
+00:33:53,340 --> 00:33:57,280
+the best هيكونوا هم اللي تحت اصلا فعشان هيك they
+
+398
+00:33:57,280 --> 00:34:02,480
+take the lastquantiles or last quantiles or last
+
+399
+00:34:02,480 --> 00:34:06,480
+percentiles okay when returns are sorted from high
+
+400
+00:34:06,480 --> 00:34:10,800
+to low جربوها يعني لو بتاخدوا معايا الحاسوب
+
+401
+00:34:10,800 --> 00:34:14,520
+التحليل معايا بيواجهيكوا how .. بيصنفوا ناخد أخر
+
+402
+00:34:14,520 --> 00:34:18,240
+ناس سهل نعرف أن مين أسوأ ناس موجودين لا سمح الله
+
+403
+00:34:18,240 --> 00:34:21,920
+يعني okay
+
+404
+00:34:21,920 --> 00:34:27,470
+خليني بس ع السريع لإن انا هخلصكم اليومالشغلات
+
+405
+00:34:27,470 --> 00:34:32,810
+مصيصة ال dial بس ال expected shortfall is expected
+
+406
+00:34:32,810 --> 00:34:35,910
+shortfall is also called conditional tail
+
+407
+00:34:35,910 --> 00:34:40,110
+expectation المشكلة
+
+408
+00:34:40,110 --> 00:34:44,530
+في ال values at risk is comparing these values
+
+409
+00:34:44,530 --> 00:34:49,350
+with these values لما احنا we compare this نقرر
+
+410
+00:34:49,350 --> 00:34:54,140
+الناس الشاطرين بالناس الرسمينيعني we compare the
+
+411
+00:34:54,140 --> 00:34:57,300
+positive values with the negative values هذا باسمه
+
+412
+00:34:57,300 --> 00:34:59,820
+بال values at risk so values at risk is a
+
+413
+00:34:59,820 --> 00:35:05,680
+conservative measure يعني محافظ شوية but in
+
+414
+00:35:05,680 --> 00:35:08,900
+shortfalls is only focusing on the negative values
+
+415
+00:35:08,900 --> 00:35:12,340
+بس بتركز على ال negative values to what extent
+
+416
+00:35:12,340 --> 00:35:18,980
+these values are negative؟ جداش هم سيئين أصلا okay
+
+417
+00:35:18,980 --> 00:35:23,750
+we know we have negative valuesيعني احنا بنعرف ان
+
+418
+00:35:23,750 --> 00:35:28,270
+في عندنا negative returns but to what extent these
+
+419
+00:35:28,270 --> 00:35:31,990
+negative returns influence on our portfolio or in
+
+420
+00:35:31,990 --> 00:35:37,890
+our decision يعني شفنا مثلا في عندنا طلاب رصفين
+
+421
+00:35:37,890 --> 00:35:42,870
+تحت لكن كدهش هدول مهمين بالنسبالنا إذا لجينا ان
+
+422
+00:35:42,870 --> 00:35:48,720
+والله هذا العدد مقارنة مع ال big people انهvery
+
+423
+00:35:48,720 --> 00:35:52,700
+very small we can ignore them but if it is if
+
+424
+00:35:52,700 --> 00:35:57,080
+there is a problem if we observe if we observe the
+
+425
+00:35:57,080 --> 00:36:00,380
+negative return like we have a number of people so
+
+426
+00:36:00,380 --> 00:36:06,240
+we focus on this ف shortfalls is not comparing the
+
+427
+00:36:06,240 --> 00:36:09,040
+good people with the good results with the bad
+
+428
+00:36:09,040 --> 00:36:12,980
+results just only focusing on the bad results بس
+
+429
+00:36:12,980 --> 00:36:16,880
+بتطلع ال negative returnsOkay and see why why
+
+430
+00:36:16,880 --> 00:36:21,960
+these negative returns So values at risk take the
+
+431
+00:36:21,960 --> 00:36:26,640
+highest return from the worst cases Okay بتاخد
+
+432
+00:36:26,640 --> 00:36:32,840
+أعلى عائد من أسوأ حالات Expected shortfalls اللي
+
+433
+00:36:32,840 --> 00:36:37,420
+EC take an average return of the worst cases هتيجي
+
+434
+00:36:37,420 --> 00:36:43,170
+كأنه إيش هنسوي طلعوا هنا شوفوا الحالة هنافي ال
+
+435
+00:36:43,170 --> 00:36:46,970
+values at risk ال average moved to the down،
+
+436
+00:36:46,970 --> 00:36:52,290
+مظبوط؟ وشوفنا إيش ال .. إيش هذا اتأثرت بهدول، لكن
+
+437
+00:36:52,290 --> 00:36:56,250
+بال .. ال expected shortfalls هذا .. we ignore
+
+438
+00:36:56,250 --> 00:37:00,550
+this and we calculate the average of this، بنشوف
+
+439
+00:37:00,550 --> 00:37:04,870
+ال average تلقى هدول، كداش هو is negative، كداش هو
+
+440
+00:37:04,870 --> 00:37:10,250
+سيءهذا الفرق بين ال values at risk و بين expected
+
+441
+00:37:10,250 --> 00:37:13,790
+shortfalls expected shortfalls تأخذ عدد عادل عادل
+
+442
+00:37:13,790 --> 00:37:19,750
+عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل
+
+443
+00:37:19,750 --> 00:37:21,010
+عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل
+
+444
+00:37:21,010 --> 00:37:24,190
+عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل
+
+445
+00:37:24,190 --> 00:37:24,190
+عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل
+
+446
+00:37:24,190 --> 00:37:25,530
+عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل
+
+447
+00:37:25,530 --> 00:37:25,550
+عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل عادل
+
+448
+00:37:25,550 --> 00:37:31,770
+عادل عادل عادل عادل
+
+449
+00:37:31,770 --> 00:37:36,500
+عاللي هو ال lower partial standard deviation and
+
+450
+00:37:36,500 --> 00:37:42,740
+the Sortino ratio احنا حكينا احنا اذا كان عندنا
+
+451
+00:37:42,740 --> 00:37:47,540
+non-normal distribution so the average is no
+
+452
+00:37:47,540 --> 00:37:52,940
+longer is a good measure to return or to the risk
+
+453
+00:37:52,940 --> 00:37:57,140
+حكينا اذا كان البيانات مش normal distribution
+
+454
+00:37:57,940 --> 00:38:00,640
+توزيعها مش طبيعي معناه الكلام ال average is
+
+455
+00:38:00,640 --> 00:38:04,020
+misleading the standard deviation is misleading so
+
+456
+00:38:04,020 --> 00:38:09,520
+what we can do then ايش ممكن نسوي instead of using
+
+457
+00:38:09,520 --> 00:38:12,680
+average بدل ما احنا نستخدم ال average we can
+
+458
+00:38:12,680 --> 00:38:19,180
+replace the average by the risk free يعني شوفوا
+
+459
+00:38:19,180 --> 00:38:23,780
+شايفين البيانات هذه البيانات
+
+460
+00:38:23,780 --> 00:38:29,100
+هذههذه البيانات اللي فيها outliers وروحنا جيبنا ال
+
+461
+00:38:29,100 --> 00:38:32,740
+average طالع حامل حسب ال lower partial standard
+
+462
+00:38:32,740 --> 00:38:38,960
+deviation هذا ال average is misleading so the
+
+463
+00:38:38,960 --> 00:38:42,600
+statisticians or the statistical people and the
+
+464
+00:38:42,600 --> 00:38:45,340
+financial people think the average is misleading
+
+465
+00:38:45,340 --> 00:38:51,580
+so what we can do then is remove the average بدلاش
+
+466
+00:38:51,580 --> 00:38:54,960
+ال average so replace the average with the risk
+
+467
+00:38:54,960 --> 00:38:55,240
+-free
+
+468
+00:38:59,820 --> 00:39:03,120
+بنجيب ال average و بنحط ال risk free بلغه okay
+
+469
+00:39:03,120 --> 00:39:09,140
+because the risk free is a parameter or a good
+
+470
+00:39:09,140 --> 00:39:12,620
+indicator for all of the investments فاحنا بنشوف
+
+471
+00:39:12,620 --> 00:39:17,400
+ال risk free وين بيجي أه بيجي أها خلاص فلما بنحسب
+
+472
+00:39:17,400 --> 00:39:20,440
+ال sigma بنقول هذه ال observation ناقصها يعني لما
+
+473
+00:39:20,440 --> 00:39:24,900
+احنا نحسب ال sigma كنا نحسبها R minus R bar okay
+
+474
+00:39:24,900 --> 00:39:28,500
+تربيه divided by N صح؟
+
+475
+00:39:31,100 --> 00:39:34,840
+في حالة ما نستخدم ال lower partial هنشيل ال R bar
+
+476
+00:39:34,840 --> 00:39:44,880
+ونحط بدلها إيه؟ ال R ال RR بس فهدول بيعتقدوا أنه
+
+477
+00:39:44,880 --> 00:39:49,260
+هيك أدق بيصير so issues need to consider negative
+
+478
+00:39:49,260 --> 00:39:52,620
+deviations separately طبعا هاي negative retained
+
+479
+00:39:52,620 --> 00:39:55,180
+separately بتتوافق مع ال expected shortfalls،
+
+480
+00:39:55,180 --> 00:39:58,840
+مظبوط؟ ها دي بتتوافق مع ال expected shortfalls
+
+481
+00:39:58,840 --> 00:40:04,420
+اللي فاتتyes لان احنا just focus on the expected
+
+482
+00:40:04,420 --> 00:40:10,620
+shortfalls هذي بس ركزوا على ال negative values
+
+483
+00:40:12,010 --> 00:40:16,050
+الإضافة الجديدة اللى عملوها يعني هي ال ال values
+
+484
+00:40:16,050 --> 00:40:20,030
+at risk كنتبهوا ال values at risk زى صار فيها
+
+485
+00:40:20,030 --> 00:40:23,430
+developments بعدين اجوا ناس قالوا لأ ال values at
+
+486
+00:40:23,430 --> 00:40:26,590
+risk هى conservatives خلّينا نطور واحدة تانية
+
+487
+00:40:26,590 --> 00:40:29,730
+سموها ال expected shortfalls قالوا لأ ال expected
+
+488
+00:40:29,730 --> 00:40:33,750
+shortfalls بتاخد عند اعتبار ال average صحيح it's
+
+489
+00:40:33,750 --> 00:40:37,800
+it's looking at the negative returnsبقى is looking
+
+490
+00:40:37,800 --> 00:40:40,460
+to the average and the average is misleading so
+
+491
+00:40:40,460 --> 00:40:45,780
+what we can do then replace the average by the by
+
+492
+00:40:45,780 --> 00:40:49,000
+the risk free فهم اعتمدوا نقطتين need to consider
+
+493
+00:40:49,000 --> 00:40:51,220
+the negative deviation separately negative returns
+
+494
+00:40:51,220 --> 00:40:53,900
+and need to consider deviation from return from
+
+495
+00:40:53,900 --> 00:40:57,620
+the risk free rates من ال risk free not from the
+
+496
+00:40:57,620 --> 00:40:59,280
+not from the average
+
+497
+00:41:07,530 --> 00:41:11,730
+هذه الأولى look like they expected shortfalls
+
+498
+00:41:11,730 --> 00:41:15,930
+خلصنا إيش عملوا تطوير عليها؟ عملوا تطوير جديد
+
+499
+00:41:15,930 --> 00:41:21,570
+عليها بدل ما يحسبوا ال minus minus the average
+
+500
+00:41:21,570 --> 00:41:29,850
+استخدموا ال risk free بس ال LBSD similar to usual
+
+501
+00:41:29,850 --> 00:41:32,390
+standard deviation هي شبه ال standard deviation
+
+502
+00:41:32,390 --> 00:41:37,700
+لكن إيش الفرق منها؟ بس ال risk freeطيب فاكرين
+
+503
+00:41:37,700 --> 00:41:43,760
+share ratio share ratio اللي هو ال share ratio
+
+504
+00:41:43,760 --> 00:41:46,700
+اللي حكيناكوا فيها ال excess return او risk
+
+505
+00:41:46,700 --> 00:41:51,700
+premium divided by the standard deviation، مظبوط؟
+
+506
+00:41:51,700 --> 00:41:58,220
+طيب بما ان ال data is not normally distributed طب
+
+507
+00:41:58,220 --> 00:42:02,520
+بعد كلام ال share ratio is not workingهذا الكلام
+
+508
+00:42:02,520 --> 00:42:05,800
+حكيناه قويا قبل تلت أربعتين قولنا إذا البيانات
+
+509
+00:42:05,800 --> 00:42:10,840
+توزيع غير طبيعي معنى الكلام إن ال sharp ratio مش
+
+510
+00:42:10,840 --> 00:42:16,080
+صح please focus on this what I said just three
+
+511
+00:42:16,080 --> 00:42:20,000
+meetings I said if our data is not normally
+
+512
+00:42:20,000 --> 00:42:25,080
+distributed we cannot .. we no longer use the
+
+513
+00:42:25,080 --> 00:42:29,290
+sharp ratioطب what is the solution if our data is
+
+514
+00:42:29,290 --> 00:42:33,970
+not normally distributed we can just replace the
+
+515
+00:42:33,970 --> 00:42:35,730
+standard deviation because the standard deviation
+
+516
+00:42:35,730 --> 00:42:38,830
+is misleading in Sharpe ratio and replace this
+
+517
+00:42:38,830 --> 00:42:44,870
+with the risk-free yes and when we replace it with
+
+518
+00:42:44,870 --> 00:42:50,170
+risk-free it's become Soratino ratio or Sortino
+
+519
+00:42:55,820 --> 00:42:59,780
+So Sortino Ratio is similar to the Sharpe Ratio
+
+520
+00:42:59,780 --> 00:43:03,300
+بقى in .. in .. in the Sortino Ratio just we
+
+521
+00:43:03,300 --> 00:43:06,160
+replace the standard deviation with the risk-free
+
+522
+00:43:06,160 --> 00:43:12,460
+اه حلو والله okay
+
+523
+00:43:12,460 --> 00:43:18,600
+تمام
+
+524
+00:43:18,600 --> 00:43:19,500
+okay
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/DzebllRyxXM.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/DzebllRyxXM.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..2b1ab6e1ba8ed1836b8c3acf756f095e3093b062
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/DzebllRyxXM.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1678 @@
+1
+00:00:21,090 --> 00:00:25,350
+بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم ال... في ال previous
+
+2
+00:00:25,350 --> 00:00:30,310
+meeting .. في ال previous meeting في اللقاءات 
+
+3
+00:00:30,310 --> 00:00:36,330
+الماضية كنا نحكي عن ال interest rates و ال
+
+4
+00:00:36,330 --> 00:00:41,910
+effective rate of return و حكينا على الموضوع إن
+
+5
+00:00:41,910 --> 00:00:44,770
+إذا كنا احنا بنحكي .. نحسب ال effective annual
+
+6
+00:00:44,770 --> 00:00:49,430
+return if it is less than one year إذا أقل من سنة
+
+7
+00:00:49,430 --> 00:00:52,390
+we can use this calculation or this equation and
+
+8
+00:00:52,390 --> 00:00:55,130
+if it is greater than one year so we can use this
+
+9
+00:00:55,130 --> 00:01:00,230
+one this is the idea of the interest rate of return
+
+10
+00:01:00,230 --> 00:01:04,650
+so the most important thing is coming in the
+
+11
+00:01:04,650 --> 00:01:08,330
+further stages الشغلات الأهم من هذه هي جاية في
+
+12
+00:01:08,330 --> 00:01:12,050
+الصفحات الجاية اللي هنعمل عليها تطبيق يعني هذا مش
+
+13
+00:01:12,050 --> 00:01:15,470
+كثير أنه احنا بس introduction لكم هنطبق في
+
+14
+00:01:15,470 --> 00:01:20,070
+اللقاءات الجاية how we can use the interest rate
+
+15
+00:01:20,070 --> 00:01:22,190
+of return كيف ممكن نستخدم ال interest rate of
+
+16
+00:01:22,190 --> 00:01:28,510
+return if you look carefully at this table نتطلع على ال
+
+17
+00:01:28,510 --> 00:01:30,650
+relationship between treasury bills and the
+
+18
+00:01:30,650 --> 00:01:33,630
+inflation العلاقة بين ال treasury bills و بين ال
+
+19
+00:01:33,630 --> 00:01:39,530
+inflation and this is a very important
+
+20
+00:01:39,530 --> 00:01:41,990
+relationship between inflation and the treasury
+
+21
+00:01:41,990 --> 00:01:45,650
+bills rate of return يعني كثير مهم أننا نعرف
+
+22
+00:01:45,650 --> 00:01:52,120
+العلاقة بين التضخم وبين العقد التضخم وبين العقد
+
+23
+00:01:52,120 --> 00:02:00,360
+اللي هو ال interest rate و ال inflation طيب لو
+
+24
+00:02:00,360 --> 00:02:06,120
+احنا طلعنا على ال treasury bills in 1926 it is 3
+
+25
+00:02:06,120 --> 00:02:13,260
+.71 okay the real treasury bills is 0.70 the
+
+26
+00:02:13,260 --> 00:02:20,000
+inflation is 3.10 just focus on على هذا، لذلك،
+
+27
+00:02:20,000 --> 00:02:25,200
+عمليات التحذير الواحدة من 10 هي 3.70 والتحذير 3
+
+28
+00:02:25,200 --> 00:02:37,020
+.10، فماذا تفهمين من هذا؟ هذا يعني أنه عندما
+
+29
+00:02:37,020 --> 00:02:41,360
+تزداد التحذير، انظر إلى التحذير عندما تزداد
+
+30
+00:02:41,360 --> 00:02:48,500
+التحذير، تتقل عمليات التحذير الحقيقة and this is
+
+31
+00:02:48,500 --> 00:02:54,420
+what we yes this is what we said in before three
+
+32
+00:02:54,420 --> 00:03:00,700
+meetings حكينا أن ال R small r is equal R minus I
+
+33
+00:03:00,700 --> 00:03:09,800
+ال I when I increase R decrease كل ما ال I بتزيد
+
+34
+00:03:09,800 --> 00:03:14,280
+ال inflation بتزيد كل ما ال R small r decrease طيب
+
+35
+00:03:15,630 --> 00:03:20,110
+look at treasury bills and inflation if you look
+
+36
+00:03:20,110 --> 00:03:26,190
+at the chart إذا احنا طلعنا على ال chart if you
+
+37
+00:03:26,190 --> 00:03:30,690
+look at this chart this
+
+38
+00:03:30,690 --> 00:03:34,910
+is .. هي is the treasury bills هذا هو ال treasury
+
+39
+00:03:34,910 --> 00:03:44,340
+bills and this is R of treasury bills إذا قررنا أن
+
+40
+00:03:44,340 --> 00:03:52,440
+هذا 3.7 في جميعهم، فهذا 3.71 في جميعهم، فهذا 3.71
+
+41
+00:03:52,440 --> 00:03:53,100
+في جميعهم، فهذا 3.71 في جميعهم، فهذا 3.71 في
+
+42
+00:03:53,100 --> 00:03:53,320
+جميعهم، فهذا 3.71 في جميعهم، فهذا 3.71 في جميعهم،
+
+43
+00:03:53,320 --> 00:03:55,680
+جميعهم، فهذا 3.71 في جميعهم، فهذا 3.10 في جميعهم،
+
+44
+00:03:55,680 --> 00:04:00,480
+فهذا 3.10 في جميعهم، فهذا 3.10 في جميعهم، فهذا 3
+
+45
+00:04:00,480 --> 00:04:06,780
+.10 في جميعهم، فهذا 3.10 في جميعهم،
+
+46
+00:04:06,780 --> 00:04:06,820
+فهذا
+
+47
+00:04:15,150 --> 00:04:23,350
+.70 sorry okay approximately look
+
+48
+00:04:23,350 --> 00:04:28,510
+at here if we look carefully at this خليني بس
+
+49
+00:04:28,510 --> 00:04:31,490
+أُكبر لكم zooming out أكبر الصورة عشان ت understand
+
+50
+00:04:31,490 --> 00:04:31,890
+this
+
+51
+00:04:38,520 --> 00:04:41,180
+this is a very very important if you don't
+
+52
+00:04:41,180 --> 00:04:44,300
+understand this it means you will challenge
+
+53
+00:04:44,300 --> 00:04:49,500
+problems in the in the next three four pages إذا
+
+54
+00:04:49,500 --> 00:04:52,260
+ما فهمتوش هذه العلاقة هتكون عندكم مشكلة في كمان
+
+55
+00:04:52,260 --> 00:04:58,000
+أربع خمس صفحات شوفوا هيك you
+
+56
+00:04:58,000 --> 00:05:00,600
+know this this is security market line هذا هو
+
+57
+00:05:00,600 --> 00:05:05,580
+security market line and this is treasury bills as
+
+58
+00:05:05,580 --> 00:05:17,260
+I said all of this is R which is equal to 3.71 so
+
+59
+00:05:17,260 --> 00:05:21,520
+the nominal R is the nominal the nominal of the
+
+60
+00:05:21,520 --> 00:05:26,080
+treasury bills is 3.71 as in the table here 3.71
+
+61
+00:05:26,080 --> 00:05:36,240
+the inflation rate is 3 is this area 3.10
+
+62
+00:05:38,530 --> 00:05:46,870
+this is I so I is three point one so now according
+
+63
+00:05:46,870 --> 00:05:52,170
+to this chart حسب ال chart هنا this is the real
+
+64
+00:05:52,170 --> 00:05:58,270
+rate of return R just apply this equation R small
+
+65
+00:05:58,270 --> 00:06:04,990
+R is equal big R minus I so this is big R all of
+
+66
+00:06:04,990 --> 00:06:11,470
+this minus I so we get .. we end up with small r
+
+67
+00:06:11,470 --> 00:06:17,190
+okay so if you increase I look at this if you
+
+68
+00:06:17,190 --> 00:06:22,830
+increase I, R becomes smaller and smaller يعني كل
+
+69
+00:06:22,830 --> 00:06:25,930
+ما احنا بنزود ال I، ال I بتصير smaller and smaller
+
+70
+00:06:27,300 --> 00:06:31,680
+بتصير ال small r the real rate of return becomes
+
+71
+00:06:31,680 --> 00:06:35,900
+smaller and smaller يعني بتبدأ تنخفض ال real rate
+
+72
+00:06:35,900 --> 00:06:39,400
+of return what
+
+73
+00:06:39,400 --> 00:06:42,560
+you observe then what we observe we observe many
+
+74
+00:06:42,560 --> 00:06:46,420
+things ايش احنا بنلاحظ؟ بنلاحظ كثير أشياء ال first
+
+75
+00:06:46,420 --> 00:06:50,180
+one we have a negative relationship between small
+
+76
+00:06:50,180 --> 00:06:56,300
+r and I as I become bigger and bigger, R becomes
+
+77
+00:06:56,300 --> 00:07:00,780
+smaller and smaller يعني كل ما ال I بتكبر ال R
+
+78
+00:07:00,780 --> 00:07:04,600
+بتبدأ تقل okay just from the chart point of view
+
+79
+00:07:04,600 --> 00:07:08,140
+من وجهة نظر ال chart we know this from the
+
+80
+00:07:08,140 --> 00:07:12,300
+equation point of view يعني احنا فاهمين الكلام هذا
+
+81
+00:07:12,300 --> 00:07:16,740
+من وجهة نظر ال equation as the equation saying and
+
+82
+00:07:16,740 --> 00:07:17,260
+this is
+
+83
+00:07:21,280 --> 00:07:24,880
+this table is an accurate table and a real table
+
+84
+00:07:24,880 --> 00:07:28,820
+from the united states هذا هو table صحيح من ال
+
+85
+00:07:28,820 --> 00:07:30,940
+united states from nineteen twenty six to two
+
+86
+00:07:30,940 --> 00:07:33,480
+thousand and nine يعني هذا من سنة ألف وتسعمائة
+
+87
+00:07:33,480 --> 00:07:36,300
+وتسعة وعشرين لسنة ألف وتسعمائة لسنة ألفي وتسعة
+
+88
+00:07:36,300 --> 00:07:42,140
+هذا ال table صحيح okay so the the real treasury
+
+89
+00:07:42,140 --> 00:07:46,620
+bills is point seventy so the the one observation
+
+90
+00:07:46,620 --> 00:07:52,950
+is as as i explained the one observation is when I
+
+91
+00:07:52,950 --> 00:07:57,050
+become bigger and bigger R become smaller and
+
+92
+00:07:57,050 --> 00:08:03,270
+smaller يعني كل ما بتكبر ال I كل ما ال R real كل
+
+93
+00:08:03,270 --> 00:08:09,010
+ما كانت decrease other factors are equal other
+
+94
+00:08:09,010 --> 00:08:12,310
+factors and equal  معثبات العوامل الأخرى other
+
+95
+00:08:12,310 --> 00:08:18,720
+factors are equal okay now if you compare between
+
+96
+00:08:18,720 --> 00:08:25,080
+the 1968 with 1968,
+
+97
+00:08:25,220 --> 00:08:33,420
+2009 and 1926, 1967 نتطلع ونشوف احنا بال .. لو
+
+98
+00:08:33,420 --> 00:08:39,920
+قررنا ال 1968 ل 2009 مع ال 1926 ل 1967 what you
+
+99
+00:08:39,920 --> 00:08:45,560
+observe the treasury bills is greater than .. the
+
+100
+00:08:45,560 --> 00:08:50,020
+real .. sorry .. the treasury bills is greater
+
+101
+00:08:50,020 --> 00:08:53,700
+than the R nominal of treasury bills in the recent
+
+102
+00:08:53,700 --> 00:08:57,720
+years is greater than in the .. in the early .. in
+
+103
+00:08:57,720 --> 00:09:06,500
+the .. in the previous years نتطلع في ال .. في
+
+104
+00:09:06,500 --> 00:09:10,140
+السابق كان عند ال .. في السابق كان عند ال .. ال
+
+105
+00:09:10,140 --> 00:09:13,200
+real .. sorry ال nominal rate of return one point
+
+106
+00:09:13,200 --> 00:09:20,040
+sixty seven يعني من سنة ال 26 لل 67 كان عندي 1.67
+
+107
+00:09:20,040 --> 00:09:24,500
+اللي هو ال nominal rate of return من سنة ال 68 ل
+
+108
+00:09:24,500 --> 00:09:30,660
+2009 ال nominal rate of return زاد you know why؟ في
+
+109
+00:09:30,660 --> 00:09:35,340
+حد يعرف ليش؟ from the chart from the table look at
+
+110
+00:09:35,340 --> 00:09:40,980
+the table how much the inflation increase you are
+
+111
+00:09:40,980 --> 00:09:44,700
+right ال inflation هو السبب يعني أنتم لاحظوا أنه
+
+112
+00:09:44,700 --> 00:09:48,220
+طلعوا أنتم just compare this with this أنه كان five
+
+113
+00:09:48,220 --> 00:09:52,320
+point seventy five sorry في السنوات الأخيرة بعد
+
+114
+00:09:52,320 --> 00:09:55,780
+سبعة و ثمانية و ستين ال nominal rate of return
+
+115
+00:09:55,780 --> 00:10:01,060
+five point seventy five في السابعة و عشرين و سبعة و
+
+116
+00:10:01,060 --> 00:10:10,010
+ستين قديمًا 1.67 why؟ ليش .. سؤال .. سؤال مختصر ليش
+
+117
+00:10:10,010 --> 00:10:12,970
+ال nominal rate of return زاد في الفترات الأخيرة
+
+118
+00:10:12,970 --> 00:10:17,410
+فاطمة she said because of inflation look at this
+
+119
+00:10:17,410 --> 00:10:21,790
+the inflation because of the .. آه ال inflation
+
+120
+00:10:21,790 --> 00:10:30,250
+زاد فطبيعي بالظبط شايفين فعلاقة طردية إذا هذه this
+
+121
+00:10:30,250 --> 00:10:36,650
+is the first the second the second relation is as
+
+122
+00:10:36,650 --> 00:10:44,330
+long as I increase as long as I increase sorry I
+
+123
+00:10:44,330 --> 00:10:45,030
+increase
+
+124
+00:10:47,880 --> 00:10:52,200
+when I is become grow .. become bigger and bigger
+
+125
+00:10:52,200 --> 00:10:56,400
+the big R become bigger and bigger so this is
+
+126
+00:10:56,400 --> 00:10:59,160
+positive relation between the nominal rate
+
+127
+00:10:59,160 --> 00:11:02,600
+of return and I look at here this is the second لو
+
+128
+00:11:02,600 --> 00:11:05,020
+احنا طلعنا على الشغل التاني from the table look at
+
+129
+00:11:05,020 --> 00:11:09,220
+the table لاحظنا أن ال inflation صغيرة شايفين شو ال
+
+130
+00:11:09,220 --> 00:11:12,420
+nominal rate of return صغير صار لاحظنا أن ال
+
+131
+00:11:12,420 --> 00:11:15,920
+inflation زادت ال nominal rate of return شو صار 
+132
+00:11:15,920 --> 00:11:17,120
+فيه decrease
+
+133
+00:11:20,660 --> 00:11:24,800
+Okay يعني هاي .. هاي سبب .. يعني هاي ملاحظة تانية
+
+134
+00:11:24,800 --> 00:11:27,460
+.. the second observation هاي observation تانية
+
+135
+00:11:27,460 --> 00:11:36,040
+احنا بنلاحظها لو بدنا .. okay ال real لما بيقل شو
+
+136
+00:11:36,040 --> 00:11:44,500
+سبب أنه بيقل؟ مناشر ال real
+
+137
+00:11:44,500 --> 00:11:50,430
+.. ال real بيقل okay هاي ال real بدي أقل متى بيقل
+
+138
+00:11:50,430 --> 00:11:56,270
+ال real بيقل عشان ال inflation بتزيد يعني
+
+139
+00:11:56,270 --> 00:11:59,550
+ال real هنا is a function of خد بالك ال real is
+
+140
+00:11:59,550 --> 00:12:05,350
+independent مستقل عفوا عامل تابع لـ is dependent
+
+141
+00:12:05,350 --> 00:12:08,870
+عامل تابع لـ .. إذا ال inflation هو اللي بيعمل كل
+
+142
+00:12:08,870 --> 00:12:16,510
+المشكلة ال I هي عاملة كل المشكلة ليش؟
+
+143
+00:12:23,060 --> 00:12:29,720
+المفروض يكون أقل يطلع ايش ال .. ال real هذا اه بس
+
+144
+00:12:29,720 --> 00:12:32,780
+خد بالك أن ال treasure bills زادت و ال inflation
+
+145
+00:12:32,780 --> 00:12:36,660
+زادت فالفرق بينهم خلى ال real يزيد كمان طبعا
+
+146
+00:12:36,660 --> 00:12:42,620
+الفرق يعني الفرق هذا نقص هذا بيخلى يزيد طيب هذا
+
+147
+00:12:42,620 --> 00:12:47,460
+لأنه الاثنين نازلين فبيخلى الفرق نازلةذا ال spread
+
+148
+00:12:47,460 --> 00:12:51,340
+بيسموه طيب
+
+149
+00:12:51,340 --> 00:12:55,600
+في
+
+150
+00:12:55,600 --> 00:13:01,800
+حد عنده ملاحظات تانية طيب نتطلع على ال .. ستة و
+
+151
+00:13:01,800 --> 00:13:09,160
+عشرين أربعة و ستة عشر اتطلعوا
+
+152
+00:13:09,160 --> 00:13:15,240
+على ال charts أكثر inflation ال risk اتطلعوا نتطلع
+
+153
+00:13:15,240 --> 00:13:18,930
+على ال risk هذا هو ال .. until هو average annual
+
+154
+00:13:18,930 --> 00:13:22,310
+return هذا الجانب هو return و هذا الجانب اسمه risk
+
+155
+00:13:22,310 --> 00:13:24,770
+لأن هاي standard deviation of annual return
+
+156
+00:13:24,770 --> 00:13:30,610
+standard deviation of annual return نتطلع احنا على
+
+157
+00:13:30,610 --> 00:13:37,710
+ال risk بتاع ال inflation تدخم وين
+
+158
+00:13:37,710 --> 00:13:44,190
+كان أكثر فيه أكثر تدخم موجود من 26 ل 67 ليش طيب
+
+159
+00:13:44,190 --> 00:13:50,940
+تعرفوا حداشر why this ليش كان ال risk من سنة ال 26
+
+160
+00:13:50,940 --> 00:13:55,080
+ل 67 أعلى risk؟
+
+161
+00:13:55,080 --> 00:14:04,760
+في أهم من الحروب كانت في سنة 1929 شو كان لنا؟ big
+
+162
+00:14:04,760 --> 00:14:07,400
+recession because of the big recession the big
+
+163
+00:14:07,400 --> 00:14:11,260
+recession this is why the inflation rate is
+
+164
+00:14:11,260 --> 00:14:14,580
+greater than any other stages
+
+165
+00:14:15,630 --> 00:14:20,010
+because of the big recession الكساد الكبير في فترة
+
+166
+00:14:20,010 --> 00:14:28,230
+الكساد الكبير ودخلت أوروبا بحرب ضد الحلفاء وطلعت
+
+167
+00:14:28,230 --> 00:14:31,490
+الحرب العالمية الثانية فصار الكل يعمل يعمل سك عملة
+
+168
+00:14:31,490 --> 00:14:37,370
+بدون ما يكون مدعوم العملة من ال .. بالذهب وبالتالي
+
+169
+00:14:37,370 --> 00:14:41,390
+كان ال .. صار في inflation عالي كثير تضخم عالي
+
+170
+00:14:41,390 --> 00:14:45,150
+خلصنا أول ملاحظة تاني ملاحظة
+
+171
+00:14:49,600 --> 00:14:55,460
+الملاحظة الثالثة اللي هنخرج فيها خلصنا أول ملاحظة
+
+172
+00:14:55,460 --> 00:15:01,400
+ناخد الملاحظة الثالثة the third one the third one
+
+173
+00:15:01,400 --> 00:15:05,120
+if you look at this moderate inflation can offset
+
+174
+00:15:05,120 --> 00:15:08,840
+most of the nominal gains on low risk investments
+
+175
+00:15:08,840 --> 00:15:16,170
+ملاحظة ثالثة انتبهوا للمكتوبها بال slide moderate
+
+176
+00:15:16,170 --> 00:15:19,850
+inflation can offset most of the nominal gains on
+
+177
+00:15:19,850 --> 00:15:25,490
+low risk investments المشكلة وين؟ المشكلة أن ال
+
+178
+00:15:25,490 --> 00:15:31,550
+lower risk instruments hold the majority of the
+
+179
+00:15:31,550 --> 00:15:38,330
+systematic risk in other words بكلمات أخرى the
+
+180
+00:15:38,330 --> 00:15:40,590
+lower risk investments
+
+181
+00:15:42,110 --> 00:15:49,450
+is subject to the impact of the systematic risk or
+
+182
+00:15:49,450 --> 00:15:51,770
+is a subject of the impact of the inflation rate
+
+183
+00:15:51,770 --> 00:15:59,390
+than any other securities يعني الأدوات
+
+184
+00:15:59,390 --> 00:16:05,170
+المالية قليلة المخاطر بتأثر بأكثر من أي أداء
+
+185
+00:16:05,170 --> 00:16:09,700
+استثمارية أخرى بالتدخم خلينا نشوف المثال هذا شوفوا
+
+186
+00:16:09,700 --> 00:16:12,560
+ال treasury bills انقرن ال treasury bills مع ال
+
+187
+00:16:12,560 --> 00:16:15,840
+commercial paper احنا we sell commercial paper is
+
+188
+00:16:15,840 --> 00:16:21,620
+one of the money market securities my question is
+
+189
+00:16:21,620 --> 00:16:25,680
+which is hold higher risk أو lower risk؟ مين بيحمل
+
+190
+00:16:25,680 --> 00:16:28,200
+lower risk? treasury bills or commercial paper؟
+
+191
+00:16:28,200 --> 00:16:32,920
+commercial paper إرادة my question like this yes
+
+192
+00:16:32,920 --> 00:16:36,560
+treasury bills who's holding lower risk treasury
+
+193
+00:16:36,560 --> 00:16:41,140
+bills okay so treasury bills holding lower risk
+
+194
+00:16:41,140 --> 00:16:53,080
+fine yes okay يعني أقل مخاطر أقل مخاطر ال treasury
+
+195
+00:16:53,080 --> 00:17:03,520
+bills بتحمل أقل مخاطر طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا
+
+196
+00:17:03,520 --> 00:17:09,360
+طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا
+
+197
+00:17:09,360 --> 00:17:13,000
+طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا
+
+198
+00:17:13,000 --> 00:17:18,180
+طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا
+
+199
+00:17:24,630 --> 00:17:27,670
+the majority of the systematic risk انتبهوا لكلام
+
+200
+00:17:27,670 --> 00:17:30,970
+اللي أنا بحكي فيه the majority of systematic risk
+
+201
+00:17:30,970 --> 00:17:36,770
+is inflation ايش يعني حكيته؟ the majority of
+
+202
+00:17:36,770 --> 00:17:44,070
+systematic risk is inflation غالبية risk ايش ال
+
+203
+00:17:44,070 --> 00:17:48,690
+systematic risk؟ مخاطر النظام هي تدخم يعني غالبية
+
+204
+00:17:48,690 --> 00:17:52,590
+المخاطر النظامية هي تدخم يعني لو احنا لاحظنا هنا
+
+205
+00:17:53,380 --> 00:17:57,900
+لأن هذا هو التضخم ال I مظبوط هذا كل هذا ال system
+
+206
+00:17:57,900 --> 00:18:01,660
+of interest كله هذا هذا الجزء الكبير منه تقريبا
+
+207
+00:18:01,660 --> 00:18:08,340
+جداش يعني ممكن أطلع مثلا ال لو قلنا 3.1 divided by
+
+208
+00:18:08,340 --> 00:18:14,420
+3.70 جداش تطلع معاكم أو 71 المخاطر النظامية كلها 3
+
+209
+00:18:14,420 --> 00:18:20,340
+.71 كلها و 3.1 اللي هي ال inflation لوحدها الغالبية
+
+210
+00:18:20,340 --> 00:18:28,220
+المخاطر النظامية هي inflation تقريبا فوق 8% تقريبا
+
+211
+00:18:28,220 --> 00:18:36,200
+38% طيب نطلع على ال commercial paper نطلع على ال
+
+212
+00:18:36,200 --> 00:18:41,600
+commercial paper ال commercial paper لنفترض ال
+
+213
+00:18:41,600 --> 00:18:44,360
+return هنا 5%
+
+214
+00:18:47,640 --> 00:18:51,500
+ال systematic risk أو نحكي ال inflation زي ما
+
+215
+00:18:51,500 --> 00:18:53,560
+بتكون ال systematic risk و ال inflation واحد ال
+
+216
+00:18:53,560 --> 00:18:58,980
+inflation هي 3.1 بدنا نشوف to what extent the
+
+217
+00:18:58,980 --> 00:19:01,780
+inflation influence on the commercial paper لأي
+
+218
+00:19:01,780 --> 00:19:05,200
+درجة بتأثر ال systematic .. ال inflation بيأثر على
+
+219
+00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:12,100
+ال commercial paper بنقول 3.1 divided by 5 اللي هو
+
+220
+00:19:12,100 --> 00:19:16,600
+ال 5 5 percent جداش تطلع في النسبة المقوية؟
+
+221
+00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:30,720
+كم؟ 62% خلينا نقارن بين هذه وبين هذه هذه ال
+
+222
+00:19:30,720 --> 00:19:35,500
+treasury bills وهذه ال commercial paper ثلاثة و
+
+223
+00:19:35,500 --> 00:19:37,960
+ثمانية في المئة معناه أن ال inflation أثرت على ال
+
+224
+00:19:37,960 --> 00:19:40,740
+treasury bills بثلاثة و ثمانية في المئة which is
+
+225
+00:19:40,740 --> 00:19:44,520
+higher أكثر طب نشوف ال commercial paper أداش أثرت
+
+226
+00:19:44,520 --> 00:19:48,560
+عليها أقل إذا هاي commercial paper وهذه ال
+
+227
+00:19:48,560 --> 00:19:52,940
+treasury bills نجرب ال stocks نجرب ايش ال stocks
+
+228
+00:19:53,770 --> 00:19:59,610
+الـ stocks مثلا نفترض أنها 9% عقل 9% نشوف .. نشوف
+
+229
+00:19:59,610 --> 00:20:03,810
+ال inflation rate أداش بتأثر بال stocks نفس .. نفس
+
+230
+00:20:03,810 --> 00:20:11,770
+الفكرة 3.1 divided by 9% عشان نشوف أداش بتأثر
+
+231
+00:20:11,770 --> 00:20:20,990
+عليها 34% 34% نقارن الثلاث نتائج ببعض look at this
+
+232
+00:20:20,990 --> 00:20:34,060
+83% والذي هو أعلى، الورق التجاري مصطلح، الأسعار هي
+
+233
+00:20:34,060 --> 00:20:40,460
+فرصة الاستثمار أو فرصة استثمار على
+
+234
+00:20:42,990 --> 00:20:47,010
+on the rate of return is less than the impact of
+
+235
+00:20:47,010 --> 00:20:50,330
+treasury bills of the inflation on the treasury
+
+236
+00:20:50,330 --> 00:20:56,490
+bills يعني أثر التضخم على الأسهم أقل من أثر التضخم
+
+237
+00:20:56,490 --> 00:20:59,890
+على ال treasury bills هذه الملاحظة الثالثة اللي هي
+
+238
+00:20:59,890 --> 00:21:08,770
+هنا لو كتبناها إياها the influence of
+
+239
+00:21:08,770 --> 00:21:10,390
+inflation
+
+240
+00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:16,180
+أو بنجوسانيه systematic risk because inflation is
+
+241
+00:21:16,180 --> 00:21:23,780
+systematic risk on
+
+242
+00:21:23,780 --> 00:21:29,460
+the influence of inflation or systematic risk on
+
+243
+00:21:29,460 --> 00:21:36,580
+the treasury bills is
+
+244
+00:21:36,580 --> 00:21:45,710
+higher than any other securities any other
+
+245
+00:21:45,710 --> 00:21:50,630
+securities زي ما أنتم احنا شايفين يعني أثر ال
+
+246
+00:21:50,630 --> 00:21:55,450
+inflation على ال treasury bills أكثر من أثر ال
+
+247
+00:21:55,450 --> 00:22:00,310
+inflation على أي security أخرى خليني أجرب ال
+
+248
+00:22:00,310 --> 00:22:06,470
+derivatives مشتقات العقل
+
+249
+00:22:06,470 --> 00:22:10,910
+بتاع المشتقات نفترض مثلا 70%
+
+250
+00:22:14,020 --> 00:22:18,040
+نقسم هنا three point one اللي هي ال inflation
+
+251
+00:22:18,040 --> 00:22:25,140
+divided by seventy كده بتطلع؟
+
+252
+00:22:25,140 --> 00:22:33,080
+three point one divided by seventy three
+
+253
+00:22:33,080 --> 00:22:36,060
+point one divided by seventy أربعمائة وأربعمائة
+
+254
+00:22:36,060 --> 00:22:42,380
+ما أقول أربعمائة يعني أربعمائة أو أربعمائة لأ three
+
+255
+00:22:42,380 --> 00:22:45,280
+point one divided بس ثلاثة فاصلة سبعة بتطلع zero
+
+256
+00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:50,600
+zero something كام
+
+257
+00:22:50,600 --> 00:22:55,180
+zero واحد وأربعين يعني بتأثر عليها
+
+258
+00:22:55,180 --> 00:22:59,860
+بأربعة point أربعة percent أربعة فاصلة أربعة في
+
+259
+00:22:59,860 --> 00:23:04,200
+المية يعني بتأثر ال inflation على ال derivatives
+
+260
+00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:08,140
+بس بأربعة فاصلة أربعة في المية so we conclude
+
+261
+00:23:08,140 --> 00:23:12,330
+that the treasury bills is more subject to
+
+262
+00:23:12,330 --> 00:23:16,150
+inflation than any other securities يعني أنا بحاول
+
+263
+00:23:16,150 --> 00:23:21,130
+بعطيكم إياها بعدد لهجات وبعدد context بحيث أنه
+
+264
+00:23:21,130 --> 00:23:27,690
+you digest this يعني بحاول بكذا طريقة أنه تصلكم
+
+265
+00:23:27,690 --> 00:23:31,110
+المعلومة okay
+
+266
+00:23:35,690 --> 00:23:40,430
+فإذا ال inflation rates بيأثر كتير على .. عنو
+
+267
+00:23:40,430 --> 00:23:44,150
+أكتر؟ ال lower securities ولا ال higher .. ال
+
+268
+00:23:44,150 --> 00:23:46,670
+lower risk securities ولا ال higher risk .. lower
+
+269
+00:23:46,670 --> 00:23:51,950
+.. lower risk لأن زي ما إحنا شايفين .. طب نشوف
+
+270
+00:23:51,950 --> 00:23:56,850
+ليه؟ why؟ إيش السبب؟ إحنا حكينا إن ال fee بيصير
+
+271
+00:23:56,850 --> 00:24:01,310
+هيك but why؟ why .. why the .. the lower
+
+272
+00:24:01,310 --> 00:24:04,770
+securities while the lower .. the higher securities
+
+273
+00:24:04,770 --> 00:24:10,830
+or the higher risk securities fight
+
+274
+00:24:10,830 --> 00:24:15,450
+against inflation يعني تواجه الinflation because
+
+275
+00:24:15,450 --> 00:24:20,650
+investors .. أساس ال inflation مفرق واعرز okay طيب
+
+276
+00:24:20,650 --> 00:24:24,450
+الشغل اللي بتأثر كده هو ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال
+
+277
+00:24:24,450 --> 00:24:24,550
+.. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال ..
+
+278
+00:24:24,550 --> 00:24:24,930
+ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال
+
+279
+00:24:24,930 --> 00:24:27,130
+.. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال ..
+
+280
+00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:32,820
+يعني أن الinflation هو أساس المعنى المعدد هو system
+
+281
+00:24:32,820 --> 00:24:39,560
+of risk هو مخاطر نظامية عشان
+
+282
+00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:44,500
+هيك ال lower risk يتأثر فيها أكتر لسبب واضح أن ال
+
+283
+00:24:44,500 --> 00:24:47,680
+securities ال lower risk securities they don't
+
+284
+00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:53,120
+have a premium ما عندهم مش علامة عندهم مش ال ال ال
+
+285
+00:24:53,120 --> 00:24:59,820
+the R is small اه the real R is small Real R إيش هي
+
+286
+00:24:59,820 --> 00:25:05,980
+ال real R؟ لو إجينا إحنا طلعناها أخذنا ال real R مش
+
+287
+00:25:05,980 --> 00:25:13,400
+هادي R ال real R هادي R بس لاحظولي على ال real R
+
+288
+00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:19,820
+سابتها لأ كيف يا بابا سابتها عادة أيوة ال real R
+
+289
+00:25:19,820 --> 00:25:24,580
+شوفي هذا هذا ال real R بعملك عليه هيك هو real R
+
+290
+00:25:27,100 --> 00:25:30,200
+اللي بعمل عليه cross هو real R إيش بتلاحظوا أنتم
+
+291
+00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:37,180
+بال real R؟ كل ما بيجيب بتزيد أيوة شوفوا ال real R
+
+292
+00:25:37,180 --> 00:25:40,840
+هان، قارنوا ال real R هان small r مش إحنا قلنا ال
+
+293
+00:25:40,840 --> 00:25:46,300
+real R هي ال R .. هذه ال R كلها nominal minus ال I
+
+294
+00:25:46,300 --> 00:25:52,480
+فإيش بتلاحظوا ال R؟ شو بيصير فيها؟ ال increase
+
+295
+00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:52,860
+because
+
+296
+00:25:56,850 --> 00:26:02,030
+the real R has a positive function with the risk
+
+297
+00:26:02,030 --> 00:26:11,270
+هذا حطوها في بالكم R the small R هتطلعوا على ال
+
+298
+00:26:11,270 --> 00:26:15,190
+charts look at this chart look at this R شوفوا ال
+
+299
+00:26:15,190 --> 00:26:19,070
+R هذه شايفينها which is bigger this one or this
+
+300
+00:26:19,070 --> 00:26:27,560
+one this one إذا حكينا هذه R نود هذي R1 R2 R3 R4
+
+301
+00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:36,120
+طلعوا على R1 ال R1 إيه؟ حكينا فيها ال real of
+
+302
+00:26:36,120 --> 00:26:39,940
+commercial paper ال real for the bonds ال real for
+
+303
+00:26:39,940 --> 00:26:43,520
+the stocks ال real for the derivatives طلعوا ال
+
+304
+00:26:43,520 --> 00:26:46,380
+real بتاعة ال commercial paper is greater than the
+
+305
+00:26:46,380 --> 00:26:52,050
+real of the treasury bills why؟ because the higher
+
+306
+00:26:52,050 --> 00:26:57,610
+the risk the higher are كل ما بتزيد ال risk كل ما
+
+307
+00:26:57,610 --> 00:27:02,450
+ال R بتزيد طيب look at here again the higher the
+
+308
+00:27:02,450 --> 00:27:06,050
+risk ال risk مشي زاد so the higher the R
+
+309
+00:27:09,260 --> 00:27:15,400
+bigger and bigger as the risk become bigger and
+
+310
+00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:19,920
+bigger as a result of risk طيب خلينا إذا .. إذا
+
+311
+00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:27,100
+ثلاثة ناخد أربعة .. أربعة saying as sigma .. sigma
+
+312
+00:27:27,100 --> 00:27:33,960
+is a measure of risk as sigma increase as
+
+313
+00:27:33,960 --> 00:27:37,140
+sigma increases R increases
+
+314
+00:27:40,380 --> 00:27:46,620
+Okay, so this is the relation زي number four
+
+315
+00:27:46,620 --> 00:27:51,740
+ملاحظة رقم أربعة زي ما sigma بتزيد طبعا إيه sigma؟
+
+316
+00:27:51,740 --> 00:27:57,700
+sigma مخاطر هي هي دي sigma اه بيسموها risk امشوا
+
+317
+00:27:57,700 --> 00:28:01,000
+هيك يمين بتلاقيه ال R بتزيد because of systematic
+
+318
+00:28:01,000 --> 00:28:05,800
+because of the total risk increase لأن ال total
+
+319
+00:28:05,800 --> 00:28:10,600
+risk قاعد بيزيد وكل ما زاد ال S كل ما زادت ال R ال
+
+320
+00:28:10,600 --> 00:28:16,660
+R صغيرة الملاحظة الرابعة as sigma increases إيش
+
+321
+00:28:16,660 --> 00:28:19,840
+sigma عارفين شو sigma ال standard deviation بتاعة
+
+322
+00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:24,160
+التو اللي حكينا فيها ليه هذه standard deviation
+
+323
+00:28:24,160 --> 00:28:29,340
+اللي هو standard deviation okay as sigma increases
+
+324
+00:28:29,340 --> 00:28:36,810
+كل ما sigma زادت كل ما R increases كل ما R .. ال
+
+325
+00:28:36,810 --> 00:28:42,410
+real rate of return كل ما كان زائد زي ما أنتم
+
+326
+00:28:42,410 --> 00:28:46,010
+شايفين بال chart هو على حال ال chart يعني لو أنا
+
+327
+00:28:46,010 --> 00:28:51,010
+هيك طلعت .. طلعت .. اه
+
+328
+00:28:51,010 --> 00:28:56,450
+.. كيف؟ ال R ال real دايما بتكون مرتبطة معاها اللي
+
+329
+00:28:56,450 --> 00:29:00,130
+هي .. معاها بال .. معاها بال .. بال total risk
+
+330
+00:29:00,130 --> 00:29:04,330
+خدوا بالكم بال total risk okay طيب خلصنا الملاحظات
+
+331
+00:29:04,330 --> 00:29:04,570
+هذه
+
+332
+00:29:15,920 --> 00:29:19,180
+Okay وهي هم a dollar invested in treasury bills
+
+333
+00:29:19,180 --> 00:29:21,440
+from nineteen twenty six to two thousand grow to
+
+334
+00:29:21,440 --> 00:29:26,300
+twenty dollar but with a real value only شوفوا رغم
+
+335
+00:29:26,300 --> 00:29:30,160
+أنه لو إحنا استثمرنا دولار واحد شوفوا لو إحنا
+
+336
+00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:35,220
+استثمرنا دولار واحد في سنة الستة والعشرين لسنة الألفين
+
+337
+00:29:35,220 --> 00:29:39,170
+وتسعة هنستفيد عشرين دولار لكن استفادتنا الحقيقية
+
+338
+00:29:39,170 --> 00:29:44,890
+كم؟ 1.69$ نرجع لل table لو إحنا استثمرنا دولار
+
+339
+00:29:44,890 --> 00:29:48,410
+واحد في ال treasury bills بسنة ستة وعشرين الألفين
+
+340
+00:29:48,410 --> 00:29:53,670
+وتسعة استفادتنا الحقيقية just point seventy طلع
+
+341
+00:29:53,670 --> 00:29:58,090
+لأن في عندي inflation عالي كتير لو إحنا استثمرنا
+
+342
+00:29:58,090 --> 00:30:01,550
+من الثمانية والستين للألفين وتسعة دولار واحد ثمانية
+
+343
+00:30:01,550 --> 00:30:05,090
+والستين استفادتنا بس one point seventeen الحقيقية ال
+
+344
+00:30:05,090 --> 00:30:10,130
+real لو إحنا استثمرنا من ال 26 لل 67 يعني استثمرنا
+
+345
+00:30:10,130 --> 00:30:15,250
+يعني ثلاثين سنة تقريبا لو استثمرنا دول لو إحنا لسا
+
+346
+00:30:15,250 --> 00:30:17,290
+في just point twenty four percent
+
+347
+00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:23,960
+Okay بأكد الكلام لو إحنا استثمرنا دولار واحد بال
+
+348
+00:30:23,960 --> 00:30:26,160
+treasury bills من ستة وعشرين ل الألفين وتسعة
+
+349
+00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:29,560
+هنستفيد عشرين دولار بقى ال reality إحنا ما استفدنش
+
+350
+00:30:29,560 --> 00:30:32,780
+لعشرين دولار استفدنا just طب ليش الفرق قد صار
+
+351
+00:30:32,780 --> 00:30:37,480
+because of what because of inflation لأنه ال
+
+352
+00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:40,560
+inflation هو عمل الكلام هذا طبعا بنات بتعرفوش
+
+353
+00:30:40,560 --> 00:30:46,140
+معناه inflation تضخم okay okay طيب
+
+354
+00:30:49,580 --> 00:30:59,840
+طب كيف أنا بدي أعرف العلاقة بين الinflation و
+
+355
+00:30:59,840 --> 00:31:04,800
+بين ال R بقيس أنا ال correlation سمعتوا في شغل
+
+356
+00:31:04,800 --> 00:31:09,320
+اسمها ال correlation الارتباط بقيس الارتباط في
+
+357
+00:31:09,320 --> 00:31:11,720
+فترة من الفترات كان الارتباط إيجابي بين
+
+358
+00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:14,980
+الinflation و between real rate of return وفترات
+
+359
+00:31:14,980 --> 00:31:20,340
+أخرى صار سلبي خلّيني نشوف negative correlation
+
+360
+00:31:20,340 --> 00:31:24,460
+between real rates and inflation rates means that
+
+361
+00:31:24,460 --> 00:31:27,940
+nominal rate responds less than 1.1 to changes in
+
+362
+00:31:27,940 --> 00:31:31,740
+the expected inflation هذه هنشرحها، طلعوها،
+
+363
+00:31:31,740 --> 00:31:34,360
+طلعوها على ال chart، بدنا نحكي عن ال correlation
+
+364
+00:31:34,360 --> 00:31:40,580
+ال correlation اللي هو الارتباط الارتباط بين ال
+
+365
+00:31:40,580 --> 00:31:45,100
+real rate of return و الinflation و التضخم هو
+
+366
+00:31:45,100 --> 00:31:50,310
+ارتباط سلبي، negative ارتباط سلبي negative okay
+
+367
+00:31:50,310 --> 00:31:56,490
+لأنهم بيمشوا عكس بعض ننتبه هان نرجع كيف سلبي كل ما
+
+368
+00:31:56,490 --> 00:32:02,610
+زودنا ال inflation ال I كل ما ال R بتنزل فهذا إيش
+
+369
+00:32:02,610 --> 00:32:06,590
+يسموه correlation معله negative okay negative كيف
+
+370
+00:32:06,590 --> 00:32:09,230
+نقيسه بال Excel طبعا مش مطلوب منكم تقيسوه بال
+
+371
+00:32:09,230 --> 00:32:13,530
+Excel بس كيف نقيسه نجيب ال I ونجيب ال R real rate
+
+372
+00:32:13,530 --> 00:32:18,130
+of return و بنعمل يساوي correlation الارتباط بيطلع
+
+373
+00:32:18,130 --> 00:32:21,090
+عندنا الارتباط وبعدين بيطلع عندنا الرسمة هذه لو
+
+374
+00:32:21,090 --> 00:32:27,750
+حبينا إحنا نرسمها هتطلع ال correlation spend one
+
+375
+00:32:27,750 --> 00:32:32,950
+minute to look at this chart يعني فاكروا ده فيخة 
+
+376
+00:32:32,950 --> 00:32:37,290
+واحدة عشان تفكروا بهال chart and what you observe
+
+377
+00:32:37,290 --> 00:32:46,610
+on this chart okay يلا بدنا نشوف answer منكم يلا
+
+378
+00:32:46,610 --> 00:32:54,510
+answer me in nineteen twenty six we have .. we
+
+379
+00:32:54,510 --> 00:32:57,890
+haven't inflation we .. we haven't inflation؟ yes
+
+380
+00:32:57,890 --> 00:33:02,650
+we have inflation or we .. يعني لك ساعات okay من
+
+381
+00:33:02,650 --> 00:33:05,670
+ستة و عشرين لستة و تلاتين خلي بالك اول اشي ان ال
+
+382
+00:33:05,670 --> 00:33:09,370
+treasury bills rates اللي هو ال black one
+
+383
+00:33:09,370 --> 00:33:13,250
+و ال inflation هو ال blue one okay تمام ايش كان ..
+
+384
+00:33:13,250 --> 00:33:15,570
+شو بطلع اصلا؟ كانت ستة و عشرين لستة و تلاتين
+
+385
+00:33:15,800 --> 00:33:20,260
+inflation okay تضخم اه و بعدين .. في نفس اللحظة
+
+386
+00:33:20,260 --> 00:33:23,240
+إيش كان في ال treasury bills طبعا كانت معدلاتها
+
+387
+00:33:23,240 --> 00:33:26,840
+تنزل شو اللي بنزل ال inflation ال treasury bills
+
+388
+00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:30,820
+كانت بالأول عالية و بعدين نزلت سنة مع المعدل سبعة
+
+389
+00:33:30,820 --> 00:33:34,500
+طيب و بعدين بدأت تطلع ال treasury bills و ال
+
+390
+00:33:34,500 --> 00:33:38,820
+inflation بدأت تطلع okay خليني .. okay كلامك فيه
+
+391
+00:33:38,820 --> 00:33:44,240
+منه صح نراها هو عمال كانت بياكل الشرابات اه في هنا
+
+392
+00:33:44,240 --> 00:33:48,940
+negative correlation طلع و هان look at this لو
+
+393
+00:33:48,940 --> 00:33:54,620
+احنا كنا في النقطة هذه بس just observe on this لو
+
+394
+00:33:54,620 --> 00:33:58,040
+احنا أخذنا النقطة هذه هيك نقطة ملاحظ انه ال
+
+395
+00:33:58,040 --> 00:34:02,640
+treasury bills increase لكن الinflation decrease
+
+396
+00:34:02,640 --> 00:34:08,720
+فال correlation ايش كان negative through the time
+
+397
+00:34:08,720 --> 00:34:12,060
+مع الزمن ال correlation شو بيصير فيه بيصير
+
+398
+00:34:12,060 --> 00:34:17,170
+positive لحظة يعني ال treasury bills ال inflation
+
+399
+00:34:17,170 --> 00:34:24,190
+نزل ال treasury bills نزلت معاها okay so دي اذا
+
+400
+00:34:24,190 --> 00:34:29,550
+احنا بنحكي باللحظة متى اتغيرت التوجه؟ قبل ال 68
+
+401
+00:34:29,550 --> 00:34:34,130
+شوفوا بال .. قبل ال 68 أو قبل ال 66 كان في
+
+402
+00:34:34,130 --> 00:34:38,590
+negative correlation و بعدين صار positive يعني
+
+403
+00:34:38,590 --> 00:34:42,050
+صارت ال inflation تمشي بالزق .. يعني يبدو كان اول
+
+404
+00:34:42,050 --> 00:34:46,030
+زمان انه ال .. ال financial الواقع ال .. ما فيش
+
+405
+00:34:46,030 --> 00:34:51,270
+نظام مالي يعني ال inflation مش هي ال .. ال .. the
+
+406
+00:34:51,270 --> 00:34:57,290
+main .. the main systematic risk بعد هيك صارت ان ال
+
+407
+00:34:57,290 --> 00:35:00,550
+treasury bills طلعوا .. طلعوا النقطة هذه في ال 76
+
+408
+00:35:00,550 --> 00:35:08,190
+ال .. ال inflation زادت و ال treasury bills زادت
+
+409
+00:35:08,190 --> 00:35:11,730
+ال treasury bills زادت و ال inflation زادت راحوا
+
+410
+00:35:11,730 --> 00:35:16,150
+نزلوا مع بعض زي ما انتوا شايفين نزلوا مع بعض طلعوا
+
+411
+00:35:16,150 --> 00:35:20,830
+مع بعض نزلوا مع بعض طلعوا مع بعض لكن لو احنا طلعنا
+
+412
+00:35:20,830 --> 00:35:26,490
+back to before 1968 لو احنا طلعنا شوفوا ال
+
+413
+00:35:26,490 --> 00:35:31,530
+inflation زادت هذه انخفضت أو ثابتة هان مثلا شوفوا
+
+414
+00:35:31,530 --> 00:35:35,390
+النقطة هذه زادت هذه انخفضت ف this is important
+
+415
+00:35:35,390 --> 00:35:39,050
+make
+
+416
+00:35:39,050 --> 00:35:42,050
+.. make the correlation positive بيخلي ال .. ال
+
+417
+00:35:42,050 --> 00:35:42,970
+correlation positive
+
+418
+00:35:45,540 --> 00:35:48,240
+الأدوات المالية بالظبط كانت ال inflation مش هي
+
+419
+00:35:48,240 --> 00:35:54,080
+العامل الرئيسي لكن صارت ال .. طيب اذا هذا اللي
+
+420
+00:35:54,080 --> 00:35:59,920
+احنا بدي احكي فيه اليوم و في حد عندي سؤال؟ 
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/DzebllRyxXM_raw.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/DzebllRyxXM_raw.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..3806be7fe91f4e4fb9d1f368bf024cd063fcef4c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/DzebllRyxXM_raw.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1688 @@
+1
+00:00:21,090 --> 00:00:25,350
+بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم ال .. في ال previous
+
+2
+00:00:25,350 --> 00:00:30,310
+meeting .. في ال previous meeting في اللقاءات
+
+3
+00:00:30,310 --> 00:00:36,330
+الماضية كنا نحكي عن ال interest rates و ال
+
+4
+00:00:36,330 --> 00:00:41,910
+effective rate of return و حكينا على الموضوع إن
+
+5
+00:00:41,910 --> 00:00:44,770
+إذا كنا احنا بنحكي .. نحسب ال effective annual
+
+6
+00:00:44,770 --> 00:00:49,430
+returnif it is less than one year اذا أقل من سنة
+
+7
+00:00:49,430 --> 00:00:52,390
+we can use this calculation or this equation and
+
+8
+00:00:52,390 --> 00:00:55,130
+if it is greater than one year so we can use this
+
+9
+00:00:55,130 --> 00:01:00,230
+onethis is the idea of the interest rate of return
+
+10
+00:01:00,230 --> 00:01:04,650
+so the most important thing is coming in the
+
+11
+00:01:04,650 --> 00:01:08,330
+further stages الشغلات الأهم من هي هي جاية في
+
+12
+00:01:08,330 --> 00:01:12,050
+الصفحات الجاية اللي هنعمل عليها تطبيق يعني هذا مش
+
+13
+00:01:12,050 --> 00:01:15,470
+كتير انه احنا بس introduction لكم هنطبق في
+
+14
+00:01:15,470 --> 00:01:20,070
+اللقاءات الجاية how we can use the interest rate
+
+15
+00:01:20,070 --> 00:01:22,190
+of return كيف ممكن نستخدم ال interest rate of
+
+16
+00:01:22,190 --> 00:01:28,510
+return if you look carefully at this tableنتطلع ال
+
+17
+00:01:28,510 --> 00:01:30,650
+relationship between treasury bills and the
+
+18
+00:01:30,650 --> 00:01:33,630
+inflation العلاقة بين ال treasury bills و بين ال
+
+19
+00:01:33,630 --> 00:01:39,530
+inflation and this is a very important
+
+20
+00:01:39,530 --> 00:01:41,990
+relationship between inflation and the treasury
+
+21
+00:01:41,990 --> 00:01:45,650
+bills rate of return يعني كتير مهم أنحن نعرف
+
+22
+00:01:45,650 --> 00:01:52,120
+العلاقة بين التدخمو بين العقد التدخم وبين العقد
+
+23
+00:01:52,120 --> 00:02:00,360
+اللي هو ال interest rate و ال inflation طيب لو
+
+24
+00:02:00,360 --> 00:02:06,120
+احنا طلعنا على ال treasury bills in 1926 it is 3
+
+25
+00:02:06,120 --> 00:02:13,260
+.71 okay the real treasury bills is 0.70 the
+
+26
+00:02:13,260 --> 00:02:20,000
+inflation is 3.10 just focus onعن هذا، لذلك،
+
+27
+00:02:20,000 --> 00:02:25,200
+عمليات التحذير الواحدة من 10 هي 3.70 والتحذير 3
+
+28
+00:02:25,200 --> 00:02:37,020
+.10، فماذا تفهمين من هذا؟ هذا يعني أنه عندما
+
+29
+00:02:37,020 --> 00:02:41,360
+تزداد التحذير، انظر إلى التحذير عندما تزداد
+
+30
+00:02:41,360 --> 00:02:48,500
+التحذير، تتقل عمليات التحذير الحقيقةand this is
+
+31
+00:02:48,500 --> 00:02:54,420
+what we yes this is what we said in before three
+
+32
+00:02:54,420 --> 00:03:00,700
+meetings حكينا ان ال R small r is equal R minus I
+
+33
+00:03:00,700 --> 00:03:09,800
+ال I when I increase R decrease كل ما ال I بتزيد
+
+34
+00:03:09,800 --> 00:03:14,280
+ال inflation بتزيد كل ما ال R small r decrease طيب
+
+35
+00:03:15,630 --> 00:03:20,110
+look at treasury bills and inflation if you look
+
+36
+00:03:20,110 --> 00:03:26,190
+at the chart اذا احنا طلعنا عن ال chart if you
+
+37
+00:03:26,190 --> 00:03:30,690
+look at this chart this
+
+38
+00:03:30,690 --> 00:03:34,910
+is .. هي is the treasury bills هذا هو ال treasury
+
+39
+00:03:34,910 --> 00:03:44,340
+bills and this is R of treasury billsإذا قررنا أن
+
+40
+00:03:44,340 --> 00:03:52,440
+هذا 3.7 في جميعهم، فهذا 3.71 في جميعهم، فهذا 3.71
+
+41
+00:03:52,440 --> 00:03:53,100
+في جميعهم، فهذا 3.71 في جميعهم، فهذا 3.71 في
+
+42
+00:03:53,100 --> 00:03:53,320
+جميعهم، فهذا 3.71 في جميعهم، فهذا 3.71 في جميعهم،
+
+43
+00:03:53,320 --> 00:03:53,320
+فهذا 3.71 في جميعهم، فهذا 3.71 في جميعهم، فهذا 3
+
+44
+00:03:53,320 --> 00:03:53,320
+.71 في جميعهم، فهذا 3.71 في جميعهم، فهذا 3.71 في
+
+45
+00:03:53,320 --> 00:03:55,680
+جميعهم، فهذا 3.71 في جميعهم، فهذا 3.10 في جميعهم،
+
+46
+00:03:55,680 --> 00:04:00,480
+فهذا 3.10 في جميعهم، فهذا 3.10 في جميعهم، فهذا 3
+
+47
+00:04:00,480 --> 00:04:06,780
+.10 في جميعهم، فهذا 3.10 في جميعهم،
+
+48
+00:04:06,780 --> 00:04:06,820
+فهذا
+
+49
+00:04:15,150 --> 00:04:23,350
+.70 sorry okay approximately look
+
+50
+00:04:23,350 --> 00:04:28,510
+at here if we look carefully at this خليني بس
+
+51
+00:04:28,510 --> 00:04:31,490
+أعالكم zooming out أكبر الصورة عشان ت understand
+
+52
+00:04:31,490 --> 00:04:31,890
+this
+
+53
+00:04:38,520 --> 00:04:41,180
+this is a very very important if you don't
+
+54
+00:04:41,180 --> 00:04:44,300
+understand this it means you will challenge
+
+55
+00:04:44,300 --> 00:04:49,500
+problems in the in the next three four pages اذا
+
+56
+00:04:49,500 --> 00:04:52,260
+مافهمتوش هذه العلاقة هتكون عندكم مشكلة في كمان
+
+57
+00:04:52,260 --> 00:04:58,000
+اربع خمس صفحات شوفوا هيك you
+
+58
+00:04:58,000 --> 00:05:00,600
+know this this is security market line هذا هو
+
+59
+00:05:00,600 --> 00:05:05,580
+security market line and this is treasury bills as
+
+60
+00:05:05,580 --> 00:05:17,260
+I said all of thisis R which is equal to 3.71 so
+
+61
+00:05:17,260 --> 00:05:21,520
+the nominal R is the nominal the nominal of the
+
+62
+00:05:21,520 --> 00:05:26,080
+treasury bills is 3.71 as in the table here 3.71
+
+63
+00:05:26,080 --> 00:05:36,240
+the inflation rate is 3 is this area 3.10
+
+64
+00:05:38,530 --> 00:05:46,870
+this is I so I is three point one so now according
+
+65
+00:05:46,870 --> 00:05:52,170
+to this chart حسب ال chart هان this is the real
+
+66
+00:05:52,170 --> 00:05:58,270
+rate of return R just apply this equation R small
+
+67
+00:05:58,270 --> 00:06:04,990
+R is equal big R minus I so this is big R all of
+
+68
+00:06:04,990 --> 00:06:11,470
+thisminus I so we get .. we end up with small r
+
+69
+00:06:11,470 --> 00:06:17,190
+okay so if you increase I look at this if you
+
+70
+00:06:17,190 --> 00:06:22,830
+increase I, R becomes smaller and smaller يعني كل
+
+71
+00:06:22,830 --> 00:06:25,930
+ما احنا بنزود ال I، ال I بتصير smaller and smaller
+
+72
+00:06:27,300 --> 00:06:31,680
+بتصير ال small r the real rate of return becomes
+
+73
+00:06:31,680 --> 00:06:35,900
+smaller and smaller يعني بتبدأ تنخفض ال real rate
+
+74
+00:06:35,900 --> 00:06:39,400
+of return what
+
+75
+00:06:39,400 --> 00:06:42,560
+you observe then what we observe we observe many
+
+76
+00:06:42,560 --> 00:06:46,420
+things ايش احنا بنلاحظ؟ بنلاحظ كتير أشياء ال first
+
+77
+00:06:46,420 --> 00:06:50,180
+one we have a negative relationship between small
+
+78
+00:06:50,180 --> 00:06:56,300
+r and Ias I become bigger and bigger, R becomes
+
+79
+00:06:56,300 --> 00:07:00,780
+smaller and smaller يعني كل ما ال I بتكبر ال R
+
+80
+00:07:00,780 --> 00:07:04,600
+بتبدأ تزال okay just from the chart point of view
+
+81
+00:07:04,600 --> 00:07:08,140
+من وجهة نظر ال chart we know this from the
+
+82
+00:07:08,140 --> 00:07:12,300
+equation point of view يعني احنا فاهمين الكلام هذا
+
+83
+00:07:12,300 --> 00:07:16,740
+من وجهة نظر ال equation as the equation saying and
+
+84
+00:07:16,740 --> 00:07:17,260
+this is
+
+85
+00:07:21,280 --> 00:07:24,880
+this table is an accurate table and a real table
+
+86
+00:07:24,880 --> 00:07:28,820
+from the united states هذا هو table صحيح من ال
+
+87
+00:07:28,820 --> 00:07:30,940
+united states from nineteen twenty six to two
+
+88
+00:07:30,940 --> 00:07:33,480
+thousand and nine يعني هذا من سنة الف وتسعمائة
+
+89
+00:07:33,480 --> 00:07:36,300
+وتسعت وعشرين لسنة الف وتسعمائة لسنة الفين وتسعة
+
+90
+00:07:36,300 --> 00:07:42,140
+هذا ال table صحيح okay so the the real treasury
+
+91
+00:07:42,140 --> 00:07:46,620
+bills is point seventy so the the one observation
+
+92
+00:07:46,620 --> 00:07:52,950
+is as as i explainedthe one observation is when I
+
+93
+00:07:52,950 --> 00:07:57,050
+become bigger and bigger R become smaller and
+
+94
+00:07:57,050 --> 00:08:03,270
+smaller يعني كل ما بتكبر ال I كل ما ال R real كل
+
+95
+00:08:03,270 --> 00:08:09,010
+ما كانت decrease other factors are equal other
+
+96
+00:08:09,010 --> 00:08:12,310
+factors and equal معسبات العوامل أخرى other
+
+97
+00:08:12,310 --> 00:08:18,720
+factors are equal okay nowif you compare between
+
+98
+00:08:18,720 --> 00:08:25,080
+the 1968 with 1968,
+
+99
+00:08:25,220 --> 00:08:33,420
+2009 and 1926, 1967 اتصلح وانشوف احنا بال .. لو
+
+100
+00:08:33,420 --> 00:08:39,920
+قررنا ال 1968 ل 2009 مع ال 1926 ل 1967 what you
+
+101
+00:08:39,920 --> 00:08:45,560
+observe the treasury billsis greater than .. the
+
+102
+00:08:45,560 --> 00:08:50,020
+real .. sorry .. the treasury bills is greater
+
+103
+00:08:50,020 --> 00:08:53,700
+than the R nominal of treasury bills in the recent
+
+104
+00:08:53,700 --> 00:08:57,720
+years is greater than in the .. in the early .. in
+
+105
+00:08:57,720 --> 00:09:06,500
+the .. in the previous years نتطلع في ال .. في
+
+106
+00:09:06,500 --> 00:09:10,140
+السابق كان عند ال .. في السابق كان عند ال .. ال
+
+107
+00:09:10,140 --> 00:09:13,200
+real .. sorry ال nominal rate of return one point
+
+108
+00:09:13,200 --> 00:09:20,040
+sixty sevenيعني من سنة ال 26 لل 67 كان عندى 1.67
+
+109
+00:09:20,040 --> 00:09:24,500
+اللى هو ال nominal rate of return من سنة ال 68 ل
+
+110
+00:09:24,500 --> 00:09:30,660
+2009 ال nominal rate of return زد you know why؟ في
+
+111
+00:09:30,660 --> 00:09:35,340
+حد بعرف ليش؟ from the chart from the table look at
+
+112
+00:09:35,340 --> 00:09:40,980
+the table how much the inflation increaseyou are
+
+113
+00:09:40,980 --> 00:09:44,700
+right الinflation هو السبب يعني انتوا لاحظوا انه
+
+114
+00:09:44,700 --> 00:09:48,220
+طلع انت just compare this with this انه كان five
+
+115
+00:09:48,220 --> 00:09:52,320
+point seventy five sorry في السنوات الأخيرة بعد
+
+116
+00:09:52,320 --> 00:09:55,780
+سبعة و تمانية و ستين ال nominal rate of return
+
+117
+00:09:55,780 --> 00:10:01,060
+five point seventy five في السبتة و عشرين و سبعة و
+
+118
+00:10:01,060 --> 00:10:10,010
+ستين قديما1.67 why؟ ليش .. سؤال .. سؤال مختصر ليش
+
+119
+00:10:10,010 --> 00:10:12,970
+ال nominal rate of return زاد في الفترات الأخيرة
+
+120
+00:10:12,970 --> 00:10:17,410
+فاطمة she said because of inflation look at this
+
+121
+00:10:17,410 --> 00:10:21,790
+the inflation because of the .. اه ال inflation
+
+122
+00:10:21,790 --> 00:10:30,250
+زاد فطبيعي بالظبط شايفين فعلاقة ترضية اذا هاي this
+
+123
+00:10:30,250 --> 00:10:36,650
+is the first the secondthe second relation is as
+
+124
+00:10:36,650 --> 00:10:44,330
+long as I increase as long as I increase sorry I
+
+125
+00:10:44,330 --> 00:10:45,030
+increase
+
+126
+00:10:47,880 --> 00:10:52,200
+when I is become grow .. become bigger and bigger
+
+127
+00:10:52,200 --> 00:10:56,400
+the big R become bigger and bigger so this is
+
+128
+00:10:56,400 --> 00:10:59,160
+positive relation between between the nominal rate
+
+129
+00:10:59,160 --> 00:11:02,600
+of return and I look at here this is the second لو
+
+130
+00:11:02,600 --> 00:11:05,020
+احنا طلعنا على الشغل التاني from the table look at
+
+131
+00:11:05,020 --> 00:11:09,220
+the table لاحظنا ال inflation صغيرة شايفين شو ال
+
+132
+00:11:09,220 --> 00:11:12,420
+nominal rate of return صغير صار لاحظنا ال
+
+133
+00:11:12,420 --> 00:11:15,920
+inflation زادت ال nominal rate of return شو صار
+
+134
+00:11:15,920 --> 00:11:17,120
+فيه decrease
+
+135
+00:11:20,660 --> 00:11:24,800
+Okay يعني هاي .. هاي سبب .. يعني هاي ملاحظة تانية
+
+136
+00:11:24,800 --> 00:11:27,460
+.. the second observation هاي observation تانية
+
+137
+00:11:27,460 --> 00:11:36,040
+احنا بنلاحظها لو بدنا .. okay ال real لما بيقل شو
+
+138
+00:11:36,040 --> 00:11:44,500
+سبب انه بيقل؟ مناشر ال real
+
+139
+00:11:44,500 --> 00:11:50,430
+.. ال real بيقل okay هاي ال realبدي أقل متى بيقل
+
+140
+00:11:50,430 --> 00:11:56,270
+ال real بيقل عشان ال inflation بتزيد يعني
+
+141
+00:11:56,270 --> 00:11:59,550
+ال real هان is a function of خد بالك ال real is
+
+142
+00:11:59,550 --> 00:12:05,350
+independent مستقل عفوا عامل تابع لل is dependent
+
+143
+00:12:05,350 --> 00:12:08,870
+عامل تابع لل .. إذا ال inflation هو اللي بيعمل كل
+
+144
+00:12:08,870 --> 00:12:16,510
+المشكلة ال I هي عاملة كل المشكلة ليش؟
+
+145
+00:12:23,060 --> 00:12:29,720
+المفروض يكون اقل يطلع ايش ال .. ال real هذا اه بس
+
+146
+00:12:29,720 --> 00:12:32,780
+خد بالك ان ال treasure bills زادت و ال inflation
+
+147
+00:12:32,780 --> 00:12:36,660
+زادت فالفرق بين اتهم خلى ال real يزيد كمان طبعا
+
+148
+00:12:36,660 --> 00:12:42,620
+الفرق يعني الفرق هذا نقص هذا بيخلى يزيد طيب هذا
+
+149
+00:12:42,620 --> 00:12:47,460
+لأنه التنين نازلين فبيخلى الفرق نازلهذا ال spread
+
+150
+00:12:47,460 --> 00:12:51,340
+بيسموه طيب
+
+151
+00:12:51,340 --> 00:12:55,600
+فى
+
+152
+00:12:55,600 --> 00:13:01,800
+حد عنده ملاحظات تانية طيب نتطلع على ال .. ستة و
+
+153
+00:13:01,800 --> 00:13:09,160
+عشرين اربعة و ستة عشر اتطلعوا
+
+154
+00:13:09,160 --> 00:13:15,240
+على ال charts اكتر inflation ال risk اتطلعوا نتطلع
+
+155
+00:13:15,240 --> 00:13:18,930
+على ال riskهذا هو ال .. until هو average annual
+
+156
+00:13:18,930 --> 00:13:22,310
+return هذا الجانب هو return و هذا الجانب اسمه risk
+
+157
+00:13:22,310 --> 00:13:24,770
+لان هاي standard deviation of annual return
+
+158
+00:13:24,770 --> 00:13:30,610
+standard deviation of annual return نتطلع احنا على
+
+159
+00:13:30,610 --> 00:13:37,710
+ال risk بتاع ال inflation تدخم وين
+
+160
+00:13:37,710 --> 00:13:44,190
+كان اكتر فيه اكتر تدخم موجود من 26 ل 67 ليش طيب
+
+161
+00:13:44,190 --> 00:13:50,940
+تعرفوا حداشر why thisليش كان ال risk من سنة ال 26
+
+162
+00:13:50,940 --> 00:13:55,080
+ل 67 أعلى risk؟
+
+163
+00:13:55,080 --> 00:14:04,760
+في أهم من الحروب كانت في سنة 1929 شو كان لنا؟ big
+
+164
+00:14:04,760 --> 00:14:07,400
+recession because of the big recession the big
+
+165
+00:14:07,400 --> 00:14:11,260
+recession this is why the inflation rate is
+
+166
+00:14:11,260 --> 00:14:14,580
+greater than any other stages
+
+167
+00:14:15,630 --> 00:14:20,010
+because of the big recession الكساد الكبير في فترة
+
+168
+00:14:20,010 --> 00:14:28,230
+الكساد الكبير ودخلت اوروبا بحرب ضد الحلفة وطلعت
+
+169
+00:14:28,230 --> 00:14:31,490
+الحرب العالمية التانية فصار الكل يعمل يعمل سك عملة
+
+170
+00:14:31,490 --> 00:14:37,370
+بدون ما يكون مدعوم العملة من ال .. بالدهب وبالتالي
+
+171
+00:14:37,370 --> 00:14:41,390
+كان ال .. صار في inflation عالي كتير تضخم عالي
+
+172
+00:14:41,390 --> 00:14:45,150
+خلصنا أول ملاحظة تاني ملاحظة
+
+173
+00:14:49,600 --> 00:14:55,460
+الملاحظة التالتة اللى هنخرج فيها خلصنا أول ملاحظة
+
+174
+00:14:55,460 --> 00:15:01,400
+ناخد الملاحظة التالتة the third one the third one
+
+175
+00:15:01,400 --> 00:15:05,120
+if you look at this moderate inflation can offset
+
+176
+00:15:05,120 --> 00:15:08,840
+most of the nominal gains on low risk investments
+
+177
+00:15:08,840 --> 00:15:16,170
+ملاحظة تالتة انتبهوا للمكتوبها بال slidemoderate
+
+178
+00:15:16,170 --> 00:15:19,850
+inflation can offset most of the nominal gains on
+
+179
+00:15:19,850 --> 00:15:25,490
+low risk investments المشكلة وين؟ المشكلة أن ال
+
+180
+00:15:25,490 --> 00:15:31,550
+lower risk instruments hold the majority of the
+
+181
+00:15:31,550 --> 00:15:38,330
+systematic risk in other words بكلمات أخرى the
+
+182
+00:15:38,330 --> 00:15:40,590
+lower risk investments
+
+183
+00:15:42,110 --> 00:15:49,450
+is subject to the impact of the systematic risk or
+
+184
+00:15:49,450 --> 00:15:51,770
+is a subject of the impact of the inflation rate
+
+185
+00:15:51,770 --> 00:15:59,390
+than any other securities يعني الأدوات
+
+186
+00:15:59,390 --> 00:16:05,170
+المالية قليلة المخاطر بتأثر بأكتر من أي أداء
+
+187
+00:16:05,170 --> 00:16:09,700
+استثمارية أخرى بالتدخم خلينا نشوف المثال هذاشوفوا
+
+188
+00:16:09,700 --> 00:16:12,560
+ال treasury bills انقرن ال treasury bills مع ال
+
+189
+00:16:12,560 --> 00:16:15,840
+commercial paper احنا we sell commercial paper is
+
+190
+00:16:15,840 --> 00:16:21,620
+one of the money market securities my question is
+
+191
+00:16:21,620 --> 00:16:25,680
+which is hold higher risk او lower risk؟ مين بيحمل
+
+192
+00:16:25,680 --> 00:16:28,200
+lower risk? treasury bills or commercial paper؟
+
+193
+00:16:28,200 --> 00:16:32,920
+commercial paperإرادة my question like this yes
+
+194
+00:16:32,920 --> 00:16:36,560
+treasury bills who's holding lower risk treasury
+
+195
+00:16:36,560 --> 00:16:41,140
+bills okay so treasury bills holding lower risk
+
+196
+00:16:41,140 --> 00:16:53,080
+fine yes okay يعني أقل مخاطر أقل مخاطر ال treasury
+
+197
+00:16:53,080 --> 00:17:03,520
+bills بتحمل أقل مخاطرطبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا
+
+198
+00:17:03,520 --> 00:17:09,360
+طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا
+
+199
+00:17:09,360 --> 00:17:13,000
+طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا
+
+200
+00:17:13,000 --> 00:17:18,180
+طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا
+
+201
+00:17:24,630 --> 00:17:27,670
+the majority of the systematic risk انتبهوا لكلام
+
+202
+00:17:27,670 --> 00:17:30,970
+اللي انا بحكي فيه the majority of systematic risk
+
+203
+00:17:30,970 --> 00:17:36,770
+is inflation ايش يعني حكيته؟ the majority of
+
+204
+00:17:36,770 --> 00:17:44,070
+systematic risk is inflation غالبية risk ايش ال
+
+205
+00:17:44,070 --> 00:17:48,690
+systematic risk؟ مخاطر النظام هي تدخم يعني غالبية
+
+206
+00:17:48,690 --> 00:17:52,590
+المخاطر النظامية هي تدخم يعني لو احنا لاحظنا هنا
+
+207
+00:17:53,380 --> 00:17:57,900
+لأن هذا هو التضخم ال I مظبوط هذا كل هذا ال system
+
+208
+00:17:57,900 --> 00:18:01,660
+of interest كله هذا هذا الجزء الكبير منه تقريبا
+
+209
+00:18:01,660 --> 00:18:08,340
+جداش يعني ممكن اطلع مثلا ال لو قلنا 3.1 divided by
+
+210
+00:18:08,340 --> 00:18:14,420
+3.70 جداش تطلع معاكم او 71 المخاطر النظامية كلها 3
+
+211
+00:18:14,420 --> 00:18:20,340
+.71 كلها و 3.1 اللي هي ال inflation لوحدهاالغالبية
+
+212
+00:18:20,340 --> 00:18:28,220
+المخاطر النظامية هي inflation تقريبا فوق 8% تقريبا
+
+213
+00:18:28,220 --> 00:18:36,200
+38% طيب نطلع على ال commercial paper نطلع على ال
+
+214
+00:18:36,200 --> 00:18:41,600
+commercial paper ال commercial paper لنفترض ال
+
+215
+00:18:41,600 --> 00:18:44,360
+return hand 5%
+
+216
+00:18:47,640 --> 00:18:51,500
+ال systematic risk او نحكي ال inflation زي ما
+
+217
+00:18:51,500 --> 00:18:53,560
+بتكون ال systematic risk و ال inflation واحد ال
+
+218
+00:18:53,560 --> 00:18:58,980
+inflation هي 3.1 بدنا نشوف to what extent the
+
+219
+00:18:58,980 --> 00:19:01,780
+inflation influence on the commercial paper لأي
+
+220
+00:19:01,780 --> 00:19:05,200
+درجة بتأثر ال systematic .. ال inflation بيأثر على
+
+221
+00:19:05,200 --> 00:19:12,100
+ال commercial paper بنقول 3.1 divided by 5 اللي هو
+
+222
+00:19:12,100 --> 00:19:16,600
+ال 5 5 percent جداش تطلع في النسبة المقوية؟
+
+223
+00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:30,720
+كم؟ 62% خلّينا نقارن بين هذه وبين هذه هذه ال
+
+224
+00:19:30,720 --> 00:19:35,500
+treasury bills وهذه ال commercial paper تلاتة و
+
+225
+00:19:35,500 --> 00:19:37,960
+تمانية في المية معناه ان ال inflation أثرت على ال
+
+226
+00:19:37,960 --> 00:19:40,740
+treasury bills بتلاتة و تمانية في المية which is
+
+227
+00:19:40,740 --> 00:19:44,520
+higher أكتر طب نشوف ال commercial paper أداش أثرت
+
+228
+00:19:44,520 --> 00:19:48,560
+عليها أقل اذا هاي commercial paper وهذه ال
+
+229
+00:19:48,560 --> 00:19:52,940
+treasury bills انجرب ال stocks انجرب ايش ال stocks
+
+230
+00:19:53,770 --> 00:19:59,610
+الـ stocks مثلا نفترض أنها 9% عقل 9% نشوف .. نشوف
+
+231
+00:19:59,610 --> 00:20:03,810
+ال inflation rate هداش بتأثر بال stocks نفس .. نفس
+
+232
+00:20:03,810 --> 00:20:11,770
+الفكرة 3.1 divided by 9% عشان نشوف هداش بتأثر
+
+233
+00:20:11,770 --> 00:20:20,990
+عليها 34% 34% نقارن التلات نتائج ببعض look at this
+
+234
+00:20:20,990 --> 00:20:34,060
+83%والذي هو أعلى، الورق التجاربي مصطلح، الأسعار هي
+
+235
+00:20:34,060 --> 00:20:40,460
+فرصة الاستثمار أو فرصة استثمار على
+
+236
+00:20:42,990 --> 00:20:47,010
+on the rate of return is less than the impact of
+
+237
+00:20:47,010 --> 00:20:50,330
+treasury bills of the inflation on the treasury
+
+238
+00:20:50,330 --> 00:20:56,490
+bills يعني أثر التضخم على الأسهم أقل من أثر التضخم
+
+239
+00:20:56,490 --> 00:20:59,890
+على ال treasury bills هذه الملاحظة التالتة اللي هي
+
+240
+00:20:59,890 --> 00:21:08,770
+هان لو كتبناكوا إياها the influence of
+
+241
+00:21:08,770 --> 00:21:10,390
+inflation
+
+242
+00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:16,180
+أو بنجوسانيه systematic risk because inflation is
+
+243
+00:21:16,180 --> 00:21:23,780
+systematic risk on
+
+244
+00:21:23,780 --> 00:21:29,460
+the influence of inflation or systematic risk on
+
+245
+00:21:29,460 --> 00:21:36,580
+the treasury bills is
+
+246
+00:21:36,580 --> 00:21:45,710
+higher than any other securitiesany other
+
+247
+00:21:45,710 --> 00:21:50,630
+securities زي ما إنتوا إحنا شايفين يعني أثر ال
+
+248
+00:21:50,630 --> 00:21:55,450
+inflation على ال treasury bills أكثر من أثر ال
+
+249
+00:21:55,450 --> 00:22:00,310
+inflation على أي security أخرى خليني أجرب ال
+
+250
+00:22:00,310 --> 00:22:06,470
+derivatives مشتقات العقل
+
+251
+00:22:06,470 --> 00:22:10,910
+بتاع المشتقات نفترض مثلا 70%
+
+252
+00:22:14,020 --> 00:22:18,040
+نقسم هان three point one اللي هى ال inflation
+
+253
+00:22:18,040 --> 00:22:25,140
+divided by seventy كدهش بتطلع؟
+
+254
+00:22:25,140 --> 00:22:33,080
+three point one divided by seventy three
+
+255
+00:22:33,080 --> 00:22:36,060
+point one divided by seventy اربعمية و اربعمية
+
+256
+00:22:36,060 --> 00:22:42,380
+ماقول اربعمية يعني اربعمية او اربعميةلأ three
+
+257
+00:22:42,380 --> 00:22:45,280
+point one divided بس تلاتة فاصلة سبعة بتطلع zero
+
+258
+00:22:45,280 --> 00:22:50,600
+zero something أكام
+
+259
+00:22:50,600 --> 00:22:55,180
+zero عد؟ zero واحد أربعة و أربعين يعني بتأثر عليها
+
+260
+00:22:55,180 --> 00:22:59,860
+ب أربعة point أربعة percent أربعة فاصلة أربعة في
+
+261
+00:22:59,860 --> 00:23:04,200
+المية يعني بتأثر ال inflation على ال derivatives
+
+262
+00:23:04,200 --> 00:23:08,140
+بس ب أربعة فاصلة أربعة في المية so we conclude
+
+263
+00:23:08,140 --> 00:23:12,330
+thatthe treasury bills is more subject to
+
+264
+00:23:12,330 --> 00:23:16,150
+inflation than any other securities يعني أنا بحاول
+
+265
+00:23:16,150 --> 00:23:21,130
+بعطيكوا إياها بعدد لهجات و بعدد context بحيث أنه
+
+266
+00:23:21,130 --> 00:23:27,690
+you digest this يعني بحاول كذا طريقة أنه تصلكم
+
+267
+00:23:27,690 --> 00:23:31,110
+المعلومة okay
+
+268
+00:23:35,690 --> 00:23:40,430
+فإذا ال inflation rates بيأثر كتير على .. عنو
+
+269
+00:23:40,430 --> 00:23:44,150
+أكتر؟ ال lower securities ولا ال higher .. ال
+
+270
+00:23:44,150 --> 00:23:46,670
+lower risk securities ولا ال higher risk .. lower
+
+271
+00:23:46,670 --> 00:23:51,950
+.. lower risk لأن زي ما إحنا شايفين .. طب نشوف
+
+272
+00:23:51,950 --> 00:23:56,850
+ليش؟ why؟ إيش السبب؟ إحنا حكينا إن ال fee بيصير
+
+273
+00:23:56,850 --> 00:24:01,310
+هيك but why؟ why .. why the .. the lower
+
+274
+00:24:01,310 --> 00:24:04,770
+securitieswhile the lower .. the higher securities
+
+275
+00:24:04,770 --> 00:24:10,830
+or the higher risk securities fight
+
+276
+00:24:10,830 --> 00:24:15,450
+against inflation يعني تواجه الinflation because
+
+277
+00:24:15,450 --> 00:24:20,650
+investors .. أساس ال inflation مفرق واعرز okay طيب
+
+278
+00:24:20,650 --> 00:24:24,450
+الشغل اللي بتأثر كده هو ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال
+
+279
+00:24:24,450 --> 00:24:24,550
+.. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال ..
+
+280
+00:24:24,550 --> 00:24:24,930
+ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال
+
+281
+00:24:24,930 --> 00:24:27,130
+.. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال ..
+
+282
+00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:32,820
+يعني ان الinflation هو أسس المعنى المعدد هو system
+
+283
+00:24:32,820 --> 00:24:39,560
+of risk هو مخاطر نظامية عشان
+
+284
+00:24:39,560 --> 00:24:44,500
+هيك ال lower risk يتأثر فيها أكتر لسبب واضح ان ال
+
+285
+00:24:44,500 --> 00:24:47,680
+securities ال lower risk securities they don't
+
+286
+00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:53,120
+have a premium ماعندهم مش علامة عندهم مش ال ال ال
+
+287
+00:24:53,120 --> 00:24:59,820
+the R is small اه the real R is smallReal R إيش هي
+
+288
+00:24:59,820 --> 00:25:05,980
+ال real R؟ لو إجينا إحنا طلعوها أخدنا ال real R مش
+
+289
+00:25:05,980 --> 00:25:13,400
+هادي R ال real R هادي R بس لاحظولي على ال real R
+
+290
+00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:19,820
+سابتة لأ كيف يا بابا سابتة عادة ايوة ال real R
+
+291
+00:25:19,820 --> 00:25:24,580
+شوفي هذا هذا ال real R بعملك عليه هيك هو real R
+
+292
+00:25:27,100 --> 00:25:30,200
+اللي بعمل عليه cross هو real R ايش بتلاحظوا انتوا
+
+293
+00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:37,180
+بال real R؟ كل ما بيجيب بتزيد ايوة شوفوا ال real R
+
+294
+00:25:37,180 --> 00:25:40,840
+هان، قارنوا ال real R هان small r مش احنا قولنا ال
+
+295
+00:25:40,840 --> 00:25:46,300
+real R هي ال R .. هذه ال R كلها nominal minus ال I
+
+296
+00:25:46,300 --> 00:25:52,480
+فإيش بتلاحظوا ال R؟ شو بيصير فيها؟ ال increase
+
+297
+00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:52,860
+because
+
+298
+00:25:56,850 --> 00:26:02,030
+the real R has a positive function with the risk
+
+299
+00:26:02,030 --> 00:26:11,270
+هذا حطوها في بالكم R the small R هتطلعوا على ال
+
+300
+00:26:11,270 --> 00:26:15,190
+charts look at this chart look at this R شوفوا ال
+
+301
+00:26:15,190 --> 00:26:19,070
+R هذه شايفينها which is bigger this one or this
+
+302
+00:26:19,070 --> 00:26:27,560
+onethis one اذا حكينا هذه R نود هذي R1 R2 R3 R4
+
+303
+00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:36,120
+طلعوا على R1 ال R1 ايه؟ حكينا فيها ال real of
+
+304
+00:26:36,120 --> 00:26:39,940
+commercial paper ال real for the bonds ال real for
+
+305
+00:26:39,940 --> 00:26:43,520
+the stocks ال real for the derivatives طلعوا ال
+
+306
+00:26:43,520 --> 00:26:46,380
+real بتاعة ال commercial paper is greater than the
+
+307
+00:26:46,380 --> 00:26:52,050
+real of the treasury bills why؟because the higher
+
+308
+00:26:52,050 --> 00:26:57,610
+the risk the higher are كل ما بتزيد ال risk كل ما
+
+309
+00:26:57,610 --> 00:27:02,450
+ال R بتزيد طيب look at here again the higher the
+
+310
+00:27:02,450 --> 00:27:06,050
+risk ال risk مشي زاد so the higher the R
+
+311
+00:27:09,260 --> 00:27:15,400
+bigger and bigger as the risk become bigger and
+
+312
+00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:19,920
+bigger as a result of risk طيب خلينا إذا .. إذا
+
+313
+00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:27,100
+تلاتة ناخد أربعة .. أربعة saying as sigma .. sigma
+
+314
+00:27:27,100 --> 00:27:33,960
+is a measure of risk as sigma increase as
+
+315
+00:27:33,960 --> 00:27:37,140
+sigma increases R increases
+
+316
+00:27:40,380 --> 00:27:46,620
+Okay, so this is the relation زي number four
+
+317
+00:27:46,620 --> 00:27:51,740
+مراحظة رقم أربعة زي ما sigma بتزيد طبعا ايه sigma؟
+
+318
+00:27:51,740 --> 00:27:57,700
+sigma مخاطر هى هى دى sigma اه بيسموها risk امشوا
+
+319
+00:27:57,700 --> 00:28:01,000
+هيك يمين بتلاقيه ال R بتزيد because of systematic
+
+320
+00:28:01,000 --> 00:28:05,800
+because of the total risk increase لإن ال total
+
+321
+00:28:05,800 --> 00:28:10,600
+risk قاعد بزيدو كل ما زاد ال S كل ما زادت ال R ال
+
+322
+00:28:10,600 --> 00:28:16,660
+R صغيرة الملاحظة الرابعة as sigma increases ايش
+
+323
+00:28:16,660 --> 00:28:19,840
+sigma عارفين شو sigma ال standard deviation بتاعة
+
+324
+00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:24,160
+التو اللي حكينا فيها ليه هذه standard deviation
+
+325
+00:28:24,160 --> 00:28:29,340
+اللي هو standard deviation okay as sigma increases
+
+326
+00:28:29,340 --> 00:28:36,810
+كل ما sigma زادت كل ما R increasesكل ما R .. ال
+
+327
+00:28:36,810 --> 00:28:42,410
+real rate of return كل ما كان زائد زي ما انتوا
+
+328
+00:28:42,410 --> 00:28:46,010
+شايفين بال chart هو على حال ال chart يعني لو انا
+
+329
+00:28:46,010 --> 00:28:51,010
+هيك طلعت .. طلعت .. اه
+
+330
+00:28:51,010 --> 00:28:56,450
+.. كيف؟ ال R ال real دايما بتكون تربيه معاها اللي
+
+331
+00:28:56,450 --> 00:29:00,130
+هي .. معاها بال .. معاها بال .. بال total risk
+
+332
+00:29:00,130 --> 00:29:04,330
+خدوا بالك بال total risk okay طيب خلصنا الملاحظات
+
+333
+00:29:04,330 --> 00:29:04,570
+هذه
+
+334
+00:29:15,920 --> 00:29:19,180
+Okay وهي هم a dollar invested in treasury bills
+
+335
+00:29:19,180 --> 00:29:21,440
+from nineteen twenty six two thousand grow to
+
+336
+00:29:21,440 --> 00:29:26,300
+twenty dollar but with a real value only شوفوا رغم
+
+337
+00:29:26,300 --> 00:29:30,160
+انه لو احنا استثمرنا دولار واحد شوفوا لو احنا
+
+338
+00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:35,220
+استثمرنا دولار واحد في سنة الستة وعشرين لسنة الفين
+
+339
+00:29:35,220 --> 00:29:39,170
+وتسعة هنستفيد عشرين دولارلكن استفادتنا الحقيقية
+
+340
+00:29:39,170 --> 00:29:44,890
+كم؟ 1.69$ نرجع ال table لو احنا استثمرنا دولار
+
+341
+00:29:44,890 --> 00:29:48,410
+واحد في ال treasury bills بسنة ستة وعشرين الفين
+
+342
+00:29:48,410 --> 00:29:53,670
+وتسعة استفادتنا الحقيقية just point seventy طلع
+
+343
+00:29:53,670 --> 00:29:58,090
+لأن في عندى inflation عالي كتير لو احنا استثمرنا
+
+344
+00:29:58,090 --> 00:30:01,550
+من التمانية وستين للألفين وتسعة دولار واحد تمانية
+
+345
+00:30:01,550 --> 00:30:05,090
+وستين استفادتنا بس one point seventeenالحففية ال
+
+346
+00:30:05,090 --> 00:30:10,130
+real لو احنا استثمرنا من ال 26 لل 67 يعني استثمرنا
+
+347
+00:30:10,130 --> 00:30:15,250
+يعني تلاتين سنة تقريبا لو استثمرنا دول لو احنا لسا
+
+348
+00:30:15,250 --> 00:30:17,290
+في just point twenty four percent
+
+349
+00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:23,960
+Okay بأكد الكلام لو احنا استثمرنا دولار واحد بال
+
+350
+00:30:23,960 --> 00:30:26,160
+treasury bills من ستة و عشرين ل الفين و دسعة
+
+351
+00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:29,560
+هنستفيد عشرين دولار بقى ال reality احنا مستفدناش
+
+352
+00:30:29,560 --> 00:30:32,780
+لعشرين دولار استفدنا just طب ليش الفرق قد صار
+
+353
+00:30:32,780 --> 00:30:37,480
+because of what because of inflation لأنه ال
+
+354
+00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:40,560
+inflation هو عمل الكلام هذا طبعا بنات بتعرفوش
+
+355
+00:30:40,560 --> 00:30:46,140
+معناه inflation تدخم okay okay طيب
+
+356
+00:30:49,580 --> 00:30:59,840
+طب كيف أنا بدي أعرف العلاقة بين الinflation و
+
+357
+00:30:59,840 --> 00:31:04,800
+بين ال R بقيس أنا ال correlation سمعتوا في شغل
+
+358
+00:31:04,800 --> 00:31:09,320
+اسمها ال correlation الارتباط بقيس الارتباط في
+
+359
+00:31:09,320 --> 00:31:11,720
+فترة من الفترات كان الارتباط إيجابي بين
+
+360
+00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:14,980
+الinflation و between real rate of return وفترات
+
+361
+00:31:14,980 --> 00:31:20,340
+أخرى صار سلبي خلّيني نشوفnegative correlation
+
+362
+00:31:20,340 --> 00:31:24,460
+between real rates and inflation rates means that
+
+363
+00:31:24,460 --> 00:31:27,940
+nominal rate responds less than 1.1 to changes in
+
+364
+00:31:27,940 --> 00:31:31,740
+the expected inflation هذه هنشرحها، طلعواها،
+
+365
+00:31:31,740 --> 00:31:34,360
+طلعواها على ال chart، بدنا نحكي عن ال correlation
+
+366
+00:31:34,360 --> 00:31:40,580
+ال correlation اللي هو الارتباط الارتباط بين ال
+
+367
+00:31:40,580 --> 00:31:45,100
+real rate of return و الinflation و التضخم هو
+
+368
+00:31:45,100 --> 00:31:50,310
+ارتباط سلبي، negativeارتباط سلبي negative okay
+
+369
+00:31:50,310 --> 00:31:56,490
+لأنهم بيمشوا عكس بعض ننتبه هان نرجع كيف سلبي كل ما
+
+370
+00:31:56,490 --> 00:32:02,610
+زودنا ال inflation ال I كل ما ال R بتنزل فهذا ايش
+
+371
+00:32:02,610 --> 00:32:06,590
+يسموه correlation معله negative okay negative كيف
+
+372
+00:32:06,590 --> 00:32:09,230
+نقيسه بال Excel طبعا مش مطلوب منكوا تقيسوه بال
+
+373
+00:32:09,230 --> 00:32:13,530
+Excel بس كيف نقيسه نجيب ال I و نجيب ال R real rate
+
+374
+00:32:13,530 --> 00:32:18,130
+of return و بنعمل يسوي correlationالارتباط بيطلع
+
+375
+00:32:18,130 --> 00:32:21,090
+عندنا الارتباط وبعدين بيطلع عندنا الرسمة هذه لو
+
+376
+00:32:21,090 --> 00:32:27,750
+حبنا احنا نرسمها اتطلعوا ال correlation spend one
+
+377
+00:32:27,750 --> 00:32:32,950
+minute to look at this chart يعني فاكروا ده فيخة
+
+378
+00:32:32,950 --> 00:32:37,290
+واحدة عشان تفكروا بهال chart and what you observe
+
+379
+00:32:37,290 --> 00:32:46,610
+on this chart okay يالا بدنا نشوف answer منكميلا
+
+380
+00:32:46,610 --> 00:32:54,510
+answer me in nineteen twenty six we have .. we
+
+381
+00:32:54,510 --> 00:32:57,890
+haven't inflation we .. we haven't inflation؟ yes
+
+382
+00:32:57,890 --> 00:33:02,650
+we have inflation or we .. يعني لك ساعات okay من
+
+383
+00:33:02,650 --> 00:33:05,670
+ستة و عشرين لستة و تلاتين خلي بالك اول اشي ان ال
+
+384
+00:33:05,670 --> 00:33:09,370
+treasury treasury bill rates اللي هو ال black one
+
+385
+00:33:09,370 --> 00:33:13,250
+و ال inflation هو ال blue one okay تمام ايش كان ..
+
+386
+00:33:13,250 --> 00:33:15,570
+شو بطلع اصلا؟ كانت ستة و عشرين لستة و تلاتين
+
+387
+00:33:15,800 --> 00:33:20,260
+inflation okay تضخم اه و بعدين .. فى نفس اللحظة
+
+388
+00:33:20,260 --> 00:33:23,240
+إيش كان فى ال treasury bills طبعا كانت معدلاتها
+
+389
+00:33:23,240 --> 00:33:26,840
+تنزل شو اللي بنزل ال inflation ال treasury bills
+
+390
+00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:30,820
+كانت بالأول عالية و بعدين نزلت سنة مع المعدل سبعت
+
+391
+00:33:30,820 --> 00:33:34,500
+طيب و بعدين بدأت تطلع ال treasury bills و ال
+
+392
+00:33:34,500 --> 00:33:38,820
+inflation بدأت تطلع okay خليني .. okay كلامك فيه
+
+393
+00:33:38,820 --> 00:33:44,240
+منه صح نرادها هو عمال كانت بياكل الشراباتأه في هنا
+
+394
+00:33:44,240 --> 00:33:48,940
+negative correlation طلع و هان look at this لو
+
+395
+00:33:48,940 --> 00:33:54,620
+احنا كنا في النقطة هذه بس just observe on this لو
+
+396
+00:33:54,620 --> 00:33:58,040
+احنا أخدنا النقطة هذه هيك نقطة ملاحظ انه ال
+
+397
+00:33:58,040 --> 00:34:02,640
+treasury bills increase لكن الinflation decrease
+
+398
+00:34:02,640 --> 00:34:08,720
+فال correlation ايش كان negative through the time
+
+399
+00:34:08,720 --> 00:34:12,060
+مع الزمن ال correlation شو بيصير فيه بيصير
+
+400
+00:34:12,060 --> 00:34:17,170
+positiveلحظة يعني ال treasury bills ال inflation
+
+401
+00:34:17,170 --> 00:34:24,190
+نزل ال treasury bills نزلت معاها okay so دي اذا
+
+402
+00:34:24,190 --> 00:34:29,550
+احنا بنحكي باللحظة متى اتغيرت التوجه؟ قبل ال 68
+
+403
+00:34:29,550 --> 00:34:34,130
+شوفوا بال .. قبل ال 68 او قبل ال 66 كان في
+
+404
+00:34:34,130 --> 00:34:38,590
+negative correlation و بعدين صار positive يعني
+
+405
+00:34:38,590 --> 00:34:42,050
+صارت ال inflation تمشي بالزق .. يعني يبدو كان اول
+
+406
+00:34:42,050 --> 00:34:46,030
+زمان انه ال .. ال financial الواقع ال .. مافيش
+
+407
+00:34:46,030 --> 00:34:51,270
+نظام مالي يعني ال inflation مش هي ال .. ال .. the
+
+408
+00:34:51,270 --> 00:34:57,290
+main .. the main systematic riskبعد هيك صارت ان ال
+
+409
+00:34:57,290 --> 00:35:00,550
+treasury bills طلعوا .. طلعوا النقطة هذه في ال 76
+
+410
+00:35:00,550 --> 00:35:08,190
+ال .. ال inflation زادت و ال treasury bills زادت
+
+411
+00:35:08,190 --> 00:35:11,730
+ال treasury bills زادت و ال inflation زادت راحوا
+
+412
+00:35:11,730 --> 00:35:16,150
+نزلوا مع بعض زي ما انتوا شايفين نزلوا مع بعض طلعوا
+
+413
+00:35:16,150 --> 00:35:20,830
+مع بعضنزلوا مع بعض طلعوا مع بعض لكن لو احنا طلعنا
+
+414
+00:35:20,830 --> 00:35:26,490
+back to before 1968 لو احنا طلعنا شوفوا ال
+
+415
+00:35:26,490 --> 00:35:31,530
+inflation زادت هذه انخفضت او ثابتة هان مثلا شوفوا
+
+416
+00:35:31,530 --> 00:35:35,390
+النقطة هذه زادت هذه انخفضت ف this is important
+
+417
+00:35:35,390 --> 00:35:39,050
+make
+
+418
+00:35:39,050 --> 00:35:42,050
+.. make the correlation positive بيخلي ال .. ال
+
+419
+00:35:42,050 --> 00:35:42,970
+correlation positive
+
+420
+00:35:45,540 --> 00:35:48,240
+الأدوات المالية بالظبط كانت ال inflation مش هي
+
+421
+00:35:48,240 --> 00:35:54,080
+العامل الرئيسي لكن صارت ال .. طيب اذا هذا اللي
+
+422
+00:35:54,080 --> 00:35:59,920
+احنا بدي احكي فيه اليوم و في حد عندى سؤال؟
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/HsbDwQMqHJ0_postprocess.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/HsbDwQMqHJ0_postprocess.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..9f96294004496c8434e82010b5312042073c0d8c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/HsbDwQMqHJ0_postprocess.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1844 @@
+1
+00:00:20,810 --> 00:00:24,390
+يلا بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم المرة الفاتت كنا نحكي
+
+2
+00:00:24,390 --> 00:00:27,450
+عن ال utility function يعني ال utility function
+
+3
+00:00:27,450 --> 00:00:30,550
+جداش ال investors بيستفيدوا من الاستثمارات سبعتهم
+
+4
+00:00:30,550 --> 00:00:37,580
+ال models الفاتت اللي هي sharpكانت تركز على
+
+5
+00:00:37,580 --> 00:00:42,740
+العلاقة بين ال return و ال risk تحطهم مع بعض بس ال
+
+6
+00:00:42,740 --> 00:00:46,420
+model تبع ال utility هو أخد بعين الاعتبار the risk
+
+7
+00:00:46,420 --> 00:00:49,960
+and return and the investors preferences أخد بعين
+
+8
+00:00:49,960 --> 00:00:53,120
+الاعتبار ال investors preferences يعني احنا ها لو
+
+9
+00:00:53,120 --> 00:00:56,780
+نيجي ال U اللي هو ال utility is equal to expected
+
+10
+00:00:56,780 --> 00:01:03,360
+rate of return العائد minus half of A A هنا هي ال
+
+11
+00:01:03,360 --> 00:01:10,070
+ايش ال risk aversiontimes sigma square مضروبة في
+
+12
+00:01:10,070 --> 00:01:14,310
+ال sigma square طبعا هذا sigma square ال sigma
+
+13
+00:01:14,310 --> 00:01:18,990
+square هنا هي ال risk ال A اللي هو ال risk
+
+14
+00:01:18,990 --> 00:01:25,090
+aversion okay E is expected rate of return and E
+
+15
+00:01:25,090 --> 00:01:28,750
+utility يعني بالأخير أنه احنا المنفعة بتساوي
+
+16
+00:01:28,750 --> 00:01:34,870
+بالعربي يعني الإيرادات نقص المخاطرطب المخاطر
+
+17
+00:01:34,870 --> 00:01:42,210
+مضروبة في تفضيل المخاطر تفضيل المخاطر okay هذا ال
+
+18
+00:01:42,210 --> 00:01:50,070
+utility functions طبقنا
+
+19
+00:01:50,070 --> 00:01:53,150
+المعادلة طبعا ان انتوا في البيت بترجعوا بتعيدوا
+
+20
+00:01:53,150 --> 00:01:57,250
+تطبيقها اخدنا بالاعتبار ان ال investor risk
+
+21
+00:01:57,250 --> 00:02:02,640
+aversion 2أو تلاتة او نص او اربع او خمسة طبعا
+
+22
+00:02:02,640 --> 00:02:08,420
+اتنين بيكون بيفضل المخاطر خمسة تفضيل المخاطر اقل
+
+23
+00:02:08,420 --> 00:02:13,280
+okay العائد ال E of R زي ما انتوا شايفين هو سبعة
+
+24
+00:02:13,280 --> 00:02:18,740
+في المية ناقص النص عارفينها والاتنين هي التنين ال
+
+25
+00:02:18,740 --> 00:02:24,220
+A و ال sigma تربي عينية ل zero fiveلاحظنا ان كل ما
+
+26
+00:02:24,220 --> 00:02:29,340
+بتنخفض ال a كل ما بيزيد العقد طلعوا هان كل ما احنا
+
+27
+00:02:29,340 --> 00:02:33,580
+بنخفض ال a العقد بيزيد يعني كل ما الناس بت .. بتحب
+
+28
+00:02:33,580 --> 00:02:37,940
+المخاطر اكتر كل ما العقد بيزيد لو طلعنا هان
+
+29
+00:02:37,940 --> 00:02:41,440
+بتلاحظوا في ال .. في المنطقة هذه يعني اختارنا 13%
+
+30
+00:02:41,440 --> 00:02:46,860
+ال expected rate of returnو minus half تنين اللى
+
+31
+00:02:46,860 --> 00:02:51,360
+هو ال risk preference او risk aversion ضرب اللى هو
+
+32
+00:02:51,360 --> 00:02:56,240
+عشرين فلمية squared بيطلع عندنا تسعة فلمية فلاحظوا
+
+33
+00:02:56,240 --> 00:03:00,400
+احنا لما كان تنين كان العائد ال expected rate of
+
+34
+00:03:00,400 --> 00:03:04,410
+return هو تسعة فلميةلما صار خمسة صار expected
+
+35
+00:03:04,410 --> 00:03:07,670
+return تلاتة في المية مع الكلام الفرق بين خمسة و
+
+36
+00:03:07,670 --> 00:03:10,110
+بين اتنين تقريبا تلات أبعاف شوفوا تلاتة في المية
+
+37
+00:03:10,110 --> 00:03:12,530
+تسعة في المية تقريبا لو ضربنا تلاتة في المية في
+
+38
+00:03:12,530 --> 00:03:16,610
+تلاتة بتطلع تسعة في المية فكل ما احنا بنخفض ال
+
+39
+00:03:16,610 --> 00:03:24,530
+investor risk aversion كل ما ال utility بتزيد طيب
+
+40
+00:03:24,530 --> 00:03:29,350
+هذا ايش بفيدنا الكلام بفيدنا الكلام انه احنا نعمل
+
+41
+00:03:29,350 --> 00:03:34,870
+portfoliosنعمل محافظ استثماري ايش معناه محافظ
+
+42
+00:03:34,870 --> 00:03:39,770
+استثماري Portfolios لو احنا خدنا investor عنده ألف
+
+43
+00:03:39,770 --> 00:03:45,710
+دولار one thousand dollar this
+
+44
+00:03:45,710 --> 00:03:48,730
+investor has option to invest in a particular
+
+45
+00:03:48,730 --> 00:03:51,250
+investor in investments يعني هذا المستثمر عنده
+
+46
+00:03:51,250 --> 00:03:56,390
+إمكانية يستثمرهم في individual investments في أيه؟
+
+47
+00:03:56,390 --> 00:03:59,650
+خدوا
+
+48
+00:03:59,650 --> 00:04:00,070
+معناها
+
+49
+00:04:02,680 --> 00:04:06,600
+but the problem of this investor when he or she
+
+50
+00:04:06,600 --> 00:04:11,060
+invest in A he will hold 100% of the risk of A
+
+51
+00:04:11,060 --> 00:04:14,920
+يعني إذا بيستثمر في A هيتحمل مخاطر 100% تبعات A
+
+52
+00:04:14,920 --> 00:04:20,000
+from the portfolio management perspective من وجهة
+
+53
+00:04:20,000 --> 00:04:23,580
+نظر portfolio management المحافظ if you have 1000$
+
+54
+00:04:23,580 --> 00:04:28,260
+you can invest them in many securities يعني ممكن
+
+55
+00:04:28,260 --> 00:04:33,800
+إحنا نستثمرهم في A في B في C and DSo in this case
+
+56
+00:04:33,800 --> 00:04:40,060
+في هذه الحالة investing one thousand dollar in
+
+57
+00:04:40,060 --> 00:04:45,560
+four different securities aims to increase return
+
+58
+00:04:45,560 --> 00:04:52,400
+الهدف منها increase return and
+
+59
+00:04:52,400 --> 00:04:55,760
+decrease risk
+
+60
+00:05:00,150 --> 00:05:02,950
+يعني هدف المحافظة الاستثمارية the main importance
+
+61
+00:05:02,950 --> 00:05:06,450
+or the main objective of managing the portfolios
+
+62
+00:05:06,450 --> 00:05:11,650
+is to increase return and to decrease risk let's
+
+63
+00:05:11,650 --> 00:05:18,130
+see how it works if you have portfolio A and B and
+
+64
+00:05:18,130 --> 00:05:21,790
+portfolio A dominates portfolio B يعني إيش معناه
+
+65
+00:05:21,790 --> 00:05:27,440
+dominates؟ dominates يعني أفضل أو أحسن من Bإذا
+
+66
+00:05:27,440 --> 00:05:36,080
+قيمة إعادة A أكتر من قيمة إعادة B، وإذا قيمة A
+
+67
+00:05:36,080 --> 00:05:42,520
+أكتر من قيمة B، وإذا قيمة A أكتر من قيمة B، وإذا
+
+68
+00:05:42,520 --> 00:05:45,000
+قيمة A أكتر من قيمة B، وإذا قيمة A أكتر من قيمة B،
+
+69
+00:05:45,000 --> 00:05:49,600
+وإذا قيمة A أكتر من قيمة B، وإذا قيمة A أكتر من
+
+70
+00:05:49,600 --> 00:05:49,620
+قيمة B، وإذا قيمة A أكتر من قيمة B، وإذا قيمة A
+
+71
+00:05:49,620 --> 00:05:49,840
+أكتر من قيمة B، وإذا قيمة A أكتر من قيمة B، وإذا
+
+72
+00:05:49,840 --> 00:05:51,540
+قيمة A أكتر من قيمة B، وإذا قيمة A أكتر من قيمة B،
+
+73
+00:05:51,540 --> 00:05:58,550
+وإذا قيمة A أكتر من قالسبب يكون وجود المحافظة
+
+74
+00:05:58,550 --> 00:06:05,950
+الاستثمارية look at here look at this one we have
+
+75
+00:06:05,950 --> 00:06:18,850
+some stocks A,B,C,D,E and F بنعمل محافظة استثمارية
+
+76
+00:06:18,850 --> 00:06:21,350
+مثلا محافظة استثمارية we select B
+
+77
+00:06:27,140 --> 00:06:35,720
+D and E اخترناهم so what is the rate of return of
+
+78
+00:06:35,720 --> 00:06:39,940
+them ال
+
+79
+00:06:39,940 --> 00:06:45,140
+rate of return تبعهم for instance انه يكون هذا ال
+
+80
+00:06:45,140 --> 00:06:48,440
+rate
+
+81
+00:06:48,440 --> 00:06:51,380
+of return يعني لو احنا جمعناهم مع بعض هيكون ال
+
+82
+00:06:51,380 --> 00:06:56,300
+rate of return like thisهذا هو عدد الترجمة لأن عدد
+
+83
+00:06:56,300 --> 00:07:05,260
+الترجمة ر بي هو عدد الوزن بي و عدد الوزن دي و عدد
+
+84
+00:07:05,260 --> 00:07:12,360
+الوزن إيه الوزن؟
+
+85
+00:07:12,360 --> 00:07:19,910
+لكن سيجما بي ليس عادل، كون حذراis not equal to the
+
+86
+00:07:19,910 --> 00:07:28,790
+w sigma a plus w sigma b plus w sigma c or cd here
+
+87
+00:07:28,790 --> 00:07:32,990
+this is right for the rate of return but it is not
+
+88
+00:07:32,990 --> 00:07:38,270
+right for the sigma for the risk اذا احنا شو صار
+
+89
+00:07:38,270 --> 00:07:42,190
+في العائد العائد زاد okay لما احنا بنعمل formula
+
+90
+00:07:42,190 --> 00:07:46,890
+لل portfolio في نفس الوقتلو احنا بدنا نستثمر في
+
+91
+00:07:46,890 --> 00:07:54,150
+any individual security عند هذا العائد عند هذه
+
+92
+00:07:54,150 --> 00:07:56,630
+النقطة من المخاطر المفروض نحصل على هذا العائد
+
+93
+00:07:56,630 --> 00:08:06,190
+مفروض بس احنا حصلنا على عائد أعلى okay طيب عند هذا
+
+94
+00:08:06,190 --> 00:08:12,250
+العائد المفروض يكون المخاطر تبعتي هيها المفروض هذه
+
+95
+00:08:12,250 --> 00:08:17,900
+المخاطر صح لسيادةفاحنا practically we reduce the
+
+96
+00:08:17,900 --> 00:08:22,780
+sigma, we reduce the risk and we increase the rate
+
+97
+00:08:22,780 --> 00:08:29,860
+of return okay I
+
+98
+00:08:29,860 --> 00:08:34,080
+said in the previous meeting when we talk about
+
+99
+00:08:34,080 --> 00:08:36,940
+utility
+
+100
+00:08:38,040 --> 00:08:42,140
+Listen here, utility is equal to the expected rate
+
+101
+00:08:42,140 --> 00:08:50,720
+of return minus half a sigma squared okay look at
+
+102
+00:08:50,720 --> 00:08:54,540
+here the expected return is we can estimate this
+
+103
+00:08:54,540 --> 00:08:57,200
+we can estimate the expected rate of return يعني
+
+104
+00:08:57,200 --> 00:09:01,220
+نقدر احنا نتوقع by using arithmetic and by using
+
+105
+00:09:01,220 --> 00:09:06,060
+geometric okayfor half we know what it means half
+
+106
+00:09:06,060 --> 00:09:09,880
+ليش هي بالنص because if I said what is the
+
+107
+00:09:09,880 --> 00:09:13,900
+difference the space difference between me and and
+
+108
+00:09:13,900 --> 00:09:17,320
+her just half of the space يعني إيش الفرق بين
+
+109
+00:09:17,320 --> 00:09:21,820
+المسافة بينه وبينها يكون نص المسافة okay so it is
+
+110
+00:09:21,820 --> 00:09:27,020
+half a is the risk preferences or risk aversion
+
+111
+00:09:27,020 --> 00:09:33,580
+إيش risk aversionقدرش الناس بتتجنب المخاطر خليني
+
+112
+00:09:33,580 --> 00:09:39,260
+أعطيكوا مثال risk aversion هذا بقسوه يعني بقدر انا
+
+113
+00:09:39,260 --> 00:09:43,520
+اعطيكوا questionnaire ا give you questionnaire and
+
+114
+00:09:43,520 --> 00:09:46,320
+based on this questionnaire I can determine what
+
+115
+00:09:46,320 --> 00:09:49,440
+is the level of A بقدر انا احدد ال level of A
+
+116
+00:09:49,440 --> 00:09:54,260
+تبعتكم يعني اعطيكوا مثال بسيط لو احنا قلنالكم انكم
+
+117
+00:09:54,260 --> 00:09:57,620
+تروحوا على مطعم okay و هذا المطعم is the first
+
+118
+00:09:57,620 --> 00:10:01,570
+time to open in Gazaو and this .. this restaurant
+
+119
+00:10:01,570 --> 00:10:07,090
+serve .. provide or service the chinese foods
+
+120
+00:10:07,090 --> 00:10:12,430
+بيقدم أيش؟ أكل صيني أكل صيني okay so you come in
+
+121
+00:10:12,430 --> 00:10:17,890
+and there is a menu وعطونا ال menu in this menu
+
+122
+00:10:17,890 --> 00:10:21,610
+because you are the first time most of the dishes
+
+123
+00:10:21,610 --> 00:10:27,700
+are chinese dishes أغلب ال dishes أيش؟suddenly
+
+124
+00:10:27,700 --> 00:10:33,460
+your eyes come to the .. to some tradition dishes
+
+125
+00:10:33,460 --> 00:10:38,560
+يعني من ال foods you know يعني مثلا في كان عندكم
+
+126
+00:10:38,560 --> 00:10:42,900
+السوشي سمعتوا بالسوشي؟ مثلا كان فيه سوشي كان فيه
+
+127
+00:10:42,900 --> 00:10:49,920
+ال calamar كان فيه كذا وفيه محطوم فلافل وحمص ايش
+
+128
+00:10:49,920 --> 00:10:55,370
+ممكن تختاروا؟مين ممكن؟ اغلب الناس فتختار .. فإذا
+
+129
+00:10:55,370 --> 00:10:58,810
+اختارتوا ال food اللي انتوا هتعرفوه فبتكون ال a
+
+130
+00:10:58,810 --> 00:11:03,050
+تبعاتكم عالية كتير يعني انه انتوا بتتجنبوا المخاطر
+
+131
+00:11:03,050 --> 00:11:09,290
+طبعا ف بيصمموا questionnaire طيب هلأ كمان مثال
+
+132
+00:11:09,290 --> 00:11:13,770
+تشوفوا كمان مثال في نفس المطعم طبعا هذا بيعملوله
+
+133
+00:11:13,770 --> 00:11:19,620
+design عشان يشوفوا ال investors ايش ال a تبعاتهمفي
+
+134
+00:11:19,620 --> 00:11:23,600
+ال designs you are invited to the workshop and you
+
+135
+00:11:23,600 --> 00:11:26,940
+don't know anyone in the workshop تعرفيش أي واحد
+
+136
+00:11:26,940 --> 00:11:31,960
+بال workshop and in each table you should select
+
+137
+00:11:31,960 --> 00:11:37,680
+four people يعني لازم تختاروا أربع أشخاص تمام؟
+
+138
+00:11:37,680 --> 00:11:42,440
+الأربع أشخاص some names okay some names you know
+
+139
+00:11:42,440 --> 00:11:47,100
+the namesand these names are tradition to you يعني
+
+140
+00:11:47,100 --> 00:11:53,140
+مثلا في عندي واحد اسمه أحمد و واحد اسمه ويليام و
+
+141
+00:11:53,140 --> 00:11:58,760
+واحد اسمه شارب و واحد اسمه ساوسان او اسمها ساوسان
+
+142
+00:11:58,760 --> 00:12:10,130
+و واحد اسمه مثلا ميOkay هذه الخمس أسماء هقولك
+
+143
+00:12:10,130 --> 00:12:20,510
+اختاروا اختاروا على ال table تبعتكم شخصيا الأغلب
+
+144
+00:12:20,510 --> 00:12:26,090
+هيختار أحمد لأنه هيعتبر ان هو from the middle east
+
+145
+00:12:26,090 --> 00:12:29,670
+طبعا you don't know them مابتعرفوش عنهم فتختاروا
+
+146
+00:12:29,670 --> 00:12:34,010
+أحمد واحتمال كتير هتختاروا Sawsam لأنه is Arabic
+
+147
+00:12:34,010 --> 00:12:38,800
+names tradition namesفي بعض الناس is if you want
+
+148
+00:12:38,800 --> 00:12:42,880
+to take risk يعني في ناس هيختاروا أحمد و ساوسة
+
+149
+00:12:42,880 --> 00:12:48,660
+نماي okay في ناس ممكن يختاروا وليام و شارب إذا
+
+150
+00:12:48,660 --> 00:12:52,560
+اختارنا وليام و شارب بيكون أنتوا روحتوا على ال
+
+151
+00:12:52,560 --> 00:12:55,820
+risk العاليلأنه بتكون تفكروا طب أنا كيف هحكي
+
+152
+00:12:55,820 --> 00:12:59,580
+معاهم؟ كيف هتكلم معاهم؟ إيهش الكلاب وش؟ طب و يمكن
+
+153
+00:12:59,580 --> 00:13:03,720
+هم بغير عننا و إش؟ لكن some people they try to try
+
+154
+00:13:03,720 --> 00:13:07,960
+risk بعض الناس بدهم يحاولوا ياخدوا ال risk إذا هاي
+
+155
+00:13:07,960 --> 00:13:10,360
+الطريقة بيسموها بال questionnaire معتوط عندكم في
+
+156
+00:13:10,360 --> 00:13:14,000
+الكتاب some examples of this questionnaire في
+
+157
+00:13:14,000 --> 00:13:16,600
+الكتاب موجود عندكم مثال على ال questionnaire so
+
+158
+00:13:16,600 --> 00:13:20,360
+using questionnaires other instrument in
+
+159
+00:13:20,360 --> 00:13:24,370
+estimating risk is a versionobserves individuals
+
+160
+00:13:24,370 --> 00:13:29,850
+decisions when confronted with risk يعني بقدره كده
+
+161
+00:13:29,850 --> 00:13:33,970
+المخاطر اللي ممكن يواجهوها الناس لما يواجهوا ..
+
+162
+00:13:33,970 --> 00:13:38,010
+كده .. لما يواجهوا المخاطر يا زي ما تشوفوهم مثلا
+
+163
+00:13:38,010 --> 00:13:40,890
+في برنامج فرنسي كنت أحضره يحطوا الولاد الصغار في
+
+164
+00:13:40,890 --> 00:13:45,490
+مكان و يحطوهم under risk و يشوفوا how these kids
+
+165
+00:13:45,490 --> 00:13:49,810
+are behaving كيف هم بتصرفوايعني مثلا انه switch
+
+166
+00:13:49,810 --> 00:13:54,490
+the light يطفو الضوء و ممكن يكون في some shadows
+
+167
+00:13:54,490 --> 00:13:58,770
+moving بعض ال kids get scared ممكن يخافوا other
+
+168
+00:13:58,770 --> 00:14:02,290
+kids coming and to play with the shadows بعض
+
+169
+00:14:02,290 --> 00:14:05,010
+الأطفال هيروح يلعبوا معاهم وبالتالي this is
+
+170
+00:14:05,010 --> 00:14:11,610
+indication for the risk aversion الولاد الصغار
+
+171
+00:14:11,610 --> 00:14:14,150
+they squeeze themselves in the corner الولاد
+
+172
+00:14:14,150 --> 00:14:17,690
+الصغار اللي هم حطوا حالهم في ال .. هده دولبجنب
+
+173
+00:14:17,690 --> 00:14:20,530
+المخاطر والولاد اللي راحوا هجموا وراحوا playing
+
+174
+00:14:20,530 --> 00:14:24,550
+with the shadows هدول بيكون عندهم risk preferences
+
+175
+00:14:25,740 --> 00:14:30,420
+يعني بيحطوهم في بيئة خطر، يعني مثلا في videos،
+
+176
+00:14:30,420 --> 00:14:32,340
+تطلع على ال videos، keep .. concentrate in the
+
+177
+00:14:32,340 --> 00:14:35,980
+videos، something jumping، ف if you make your back
+
+178
+00:14:35,980 --> 00:14:38,740
+like this، get scared، مع الكلام فيه شوية مخاطر
+
+179
+00:14:38,740 --> 00:14:41,180
+عندك، some people they don't care، ممكن just
+
+180
+00:14:41,180 --> 00:14:44,780
+everything jumping and they don't .. okay؟ So this
+
+181
+00:14:44,780 --> 00:14:48,800
+is the .. some examples of the .. و ال investment
+
+182
+00:14:48,800 --> 00:14:51,920
+banks they use these facilitiesبنوك الاستثمار
+
+183
+00:14:51,920 --> 00:14:54,220
+بيستخدموا هاي ال facilities فى عندهم special rooms
+
+184
+00:14:54,220 --> 00:14:57,880
+فى عندهم computer system و بيجلس الواحد and they
+
+185
+00:14:57,880 --> 00:15:01,100
+.. they have many tools لإن هم بيعملوا أكتر من
+
+186
+00:15:01,100 --> 00:15:07,000
+system يعني أنا مرة أمام
+
+187
+00:15:07,000 --> 00:15:12,860
+شاشة في .. في أحد البنوك and some dots shows يعني
+
+188
+00:15:12,860 --> 00:15:16,160
+بتيجي مرة ال dots بتظهر فماعليك اللى من حد ما تظهر
+
+189
+00:15:16,160 --> 00:15:20,400
+بتعمل clickفاهمتوا كيف؟ فبيجي قوة الملاحظة عند
+
+190
+00:15:20,400 --> 00:15:26,820
+الواحد و something moving مثلا بيجي أسد بيطلع و
+
+191
+00:15:26,820 --> 00:15:32,240
+حمامة بيطلع فهو بيقولك صيد اللي أنت بدك إياه ففينا
+
+192
+00:15:32,240 --> 00:15:34,960
+إذا بيركزوا على الأسد بيكون عندهم ال risk
+
+193
+00:15:34,960 --> 00:15:38,740
+preferences عالي إذا حد بيركز مثلا على الأطير
+
+194
+00:15:38,740 --> 00:15:41,620
+البسيط بيكون ال risk preferences تبعته عاش منخفضة
+
+195
+00:15:41,620 --> 00:15:45,000
+so it depends فهذه facilities كتير متوفرة في بنوك
+
+196
+00:15:45,000 --> 00:15:49,690
+الاستثمار عشان يتأكدوا من ال إيه تبعتناobserve how
+
+197
+00:15:49,690 --> 00:15:53,950
+much people are willing to pay to avoid risk في
+
+198
+00:15:53,950 --> 00:15:57,230
+ناس لما يواجهوا مخاطر بدهم يتخلصوا من المخاطر يعني
+
+199
+00:15:57,230 --> 00:16:01,350
+مثلا اعطيكم مثال بسيط لو واحد ساكن و اجاله جار
+
+200
+00:16:01,350 --> 00:16:07,970
+مزعج هذا الساكن ممكن امامه حاليا يقولك okay don't
+
+201
+00:16:07,970 --> 00:16:13,170
+worry about this مش مهم فهذا is taking risk يقولك
+
+202
+00:16:13,170 --> 00:16:15,670
+يعني عند .. يعني عند ما يبدو يعمل مشكلة ما احنا
+
+203
+00:16:15,670 --> 00:16:21,040
+بنعمله مشكلة كمانوقت تاني بيشتغل مشاكل الزنا مطير
+
+204
+00:16:21,040 --> 00:16:26,760
+هك، قال مش بدي فعل الشغله ببيع البنز، فهو دفع عشان
+
+205
+00:16:26,760 --> 00:16:31,490
+إيش تخلص من المخاطرOkay ف observe how much people
+
+206
+00:16:31,490 --> 00:16:34,510
+are willing to pay to avoid risk يعني في ناس ما
+
+207
+00:16:34,510 --> 00:16:37,490
+بيقدروش يتحملوا مخاطر وبالتالي هم بيدفعوا عساسي ان
+
+208
+00:16:37,490 --> 00:16:40,270
+هم يتخلصوا من المخاطر فبنشوف ال observe لل people
+
+209
+00:16:40,270 --> 00:16:43,990
+هدول طبعا بنصممهم مثلا بعض الأسئلة إذا أنه انت
+
+210
+00:16:43,990 --> 00:16:47,350
+مثلا صار معاك إيه إيش ممكن تسوي إيش بتعمل okay so
+
+211
+00:16:47,350 --> 00:16:50,210
+these instruments are using to estimate risk
+
+212
+00:16:50,210 --> 00:16:54,460
+aversioncapital allocation across risky and risk
+
+213
+00:16:54,460 --> 00:16:59,640
+-free portfolios لما احنا بنكون محفظة محفظة
+
+214
+00:16:59,640 --> 00:17:09,060
+استثمارية المحفظة الاستثمارية هذه المفروض
+
+215
+00:17:09,060 --> 00:17:12,240
+بكونة من جزئين أساسيا ال investors بحطوا في بعضهم
+
+216
+00:17:12,240 --> 00:17:15,420
+انه ممكن تكون بكونة من risk from the two different
+
+217
+00:17:15,420 --> 00:17:20,780
+parts اللي هو risky assets and
+
+218
+00:17:20,780 --> 00:17:21,620
+risk-free assets
+
+219
+00:17:24,880 --> 00:17:29,160
+risk asset يعني أدوات استثمارية فيها مخاطر و risk
+
+220
+00:17:29,160 --> 00:17:32,640
+free assets أدات استثمارية مافيش فيها مخاطر okay
+
+221
+00:17:32,640 --> 00:17:36,320
+it's a very important part of portfolio
+
+222
+00:17:36,320 --> 00:17:40,690
+construction لما احنا بنبني محفظ استثماريةال asset
+
+223
+00:17:40,690 --> 00:17:43,770
+allocation التوزيع وتخصيص الموارد أهم خطوة أحنا
+
+224
+00:17:43,770 --> 00:17:47,490
+ممكن نعملها refers to the choice among broad asset
+
+225
+00:17:47,490 --> 00:17:50,670
+classes بدنا نراجع ال asset classes اللي أخدناها
+
+226
+00:17:50,670 --> 00:17:53,650
+بشر طروات في عندنا money market instruments وفي
+
+227
+00:17:53,650 --> 00:17:55,450
+عندي capital market instruments في عندي treasury
+
+228
+00:17:55,450 --> 00:17:57,590
+bills في عندي commercial favors في عندي bonds في
+
+229
+00:17:57,590 --> 00:18:00,370
+عندي stocks في عندي everything so what's the
+
+230
+00:18:00,370 --> 00:18:04,730
+classes you are willing to put in your portfolio؟
+
+231
+00:18:04,730 --> 00:18:06,630
+أيش هي ال classes أيش هي ال investments اللي أنت
+
+232
+00:18:06,630 --> 00:18:10,950
+هتحطها بال portfolio؟controlling risk كيف احنا
+
+233
+00:18:10,950 --> 00:18:15,590
+نسيطر على المخاظر simplest way هي أسهل طريقة من
+
+234
+00:18:15,590 --> 00:18:18,970
+you play the fractions of portfolio invested in
+
+235
+00:18:18,970 --> 00:18:21,730
+risky free assets versus the portion invested in
+
+236
+00:18:21,730 --> 00:18:25,310
+the risky assets أسهل طريقة احنا ممكن نعملها ان
+
+237
+00:18:25,310 --> 00:18:29,590
+احنا to use the fraction يعني مثلا شايفين risky
+
+238
+00:18:29,590 --> 00:18:35,330
+asset و risky free asset ممكن اناأروح أستثمر في
+
+239
+00:18:35,330 --> 00:18:41,150
+لحظين هك انه انا بال risk asset 30% و انا 70% و
+
+240
+00:18:41,150 --> 00:18:47,190
+أحسب ال ER و أحسب ال Sigma كمان
+
+241
+00:18:47,190 --> 00:18:52,910
+بروح بعدل بدل ما هي 30 بروح اخد 50 50 و بحسب ال ER
+
+242
+00:18:52,910 --> 00:18:58,690
+و ال Sigma P بدل 50 50 لأ بروح بزود ال asset اللي
+
+243
+00:18:58,690 --> 00:19:02,270
+فيها risk بخليها 60% و انا 40% و برضه بحسب كمان
+
+244
+00:19:02,270 --> 00:19:06,820
+برهWhat is the idea of this؟ إيش الفكرة من هذا
+
+245
+00:19:06,820 --> 00:19:10,140
+الموضوع؟ أنه أنا to reach what is the optimal
+
+246
+00:19:10,140 --> 00:19:18,600
+portfolio أحسن A أحسن R وأقل B يعني أنا عائد أقل
+
+247
+00:19:18,600 --> 00:19:24,120
+مخاطر هذا الهدف بضلني أغير في تركيبة المحفظة يعني
+
+248
+00:19:24,120 --> 00:19:30,040
+إذا ممكن أنا أبدأ مثلا risky assets و risk free
+
+249
+00:19:31,600 --> 00:19:35,240
+أبدا سفر و مية في المية يعني ايه سفر يعني انا
+
+250
+00:19:35,240 --> 00:19:40,660
+المحفظة تبعتى كلها risk free يعني خالية المخاطر
+
+251
+00:19:40,660 --> 00:19:45,460
+بعدين بزود بقول عشرين جداش هتسين هان تمانين و بحسب
+
+252
+00:19:45,460 --> 00:19:50,140
+ال ال expected return و بحسب ال sigma طيب باجى
+
+253
+00:19:50,140 --> 00:19:54,760
+كمان بقول okay خلّي اربعين ستين طيب خلّي هن عشر
+
+254
+00:19:54,760 --> 00:19:59,040
+تمانين او بنحكى خمسين خمسين fifty fiftyطيب خلينا
+
+255
+00:19:59,040 --> 00:20:04,660
+نحكي هنا عن ستين اربعين okay خلينا نحكي كمان هنا
+
+256
+00:20:04,660 --> 00:20:09,480
+تمانين عشرين و بعدين خلينا نحكي مية سفر أخدنا most
+
+257
+00:20:09,480 --> 00:20:13,360
+of the possible portfolios أخدنا أغلب الاحتمالات
+
+258
+00:20:13,360 --> 00:20:16,960
+بعدين على الطرف الأخر نحسب ال ER و نحسب ال sigma
+
+259
+00:20:16,960 --> 00:20:22,000
+عند مواحفها تكون ال ER تبعتها أعلى إشي و ال sigma
+
+260
+00:20:22,000 --> 00:20:25,880
+أقل إشي بيقول this is the optimal portfolio عشان
+
+261
+00:20:25,880 --> 00:20:26,640
+ما نزعجكوش
+
+262
+00:20:29,000 --> 00:20:32,780
+بس افهم عليك عشان ما نزعجكوش بنروح بنعمل فيه
+
+263
+00:20:32,780 --> 00:20:36,300
+معادلة بسيطة بنطبق المعادلة بتطلعلي what is the
+
+264
+00:20:36,300 --> 00:20:39,280
+optimal portfolio what is the optimal construction
+
+265
+00:20:39,280 --> 00:20:44,120
+يعني إيش أفضل تركيبة يعني إحنا .. هيك إحنا بنسوي
+
+266
+00:20:44,120 --> 00:20:48,840
+manual لكن لما إحنا بنعمل estimate أحسن تركيبة
+
+267
+00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:52,320
+لمحفظ الاستثمارية بدنا نستخدم المعادلة جايين نحكي
+
+268
+00:20:52,320 --> 00:21:02,260
+عن المعادلة ناخد مثالtotal market value 300 ألف
+
+269
+00:21:02,260 --> 00:21:05,780
+دولار ايش يعني total market value واحد معاه مبلغ
+
+270
+00:21:05,780 --> 00:21:13,660
+300 ألف دولار okay هدول بدو يستثمرهم اه هلا
+
+271
+00:21:13,660 --> 00:21:19,120
+هتفهميه total market value 300 ألف دولار يعني واحد
+
+272
+00:21:19,120 --> 00:21:26,600
+معاه 300 ألف دولار بدو يستثمرهم okay 300 ألفrisk
+
+273
+00:21:26,600 --> 00:21:32,420
+free money market تسعين ألف تسعين
+
+274
+00:21:32,420 --> 00:21:40,040
+ألف إيش معلومة دول risk free okay طيب ال fund
+
+275
+00:21:40,040 --> 00:21:44,880
+الباقي equities هي إيه equities طبعا هدول risk
+
+276
+00:21:44,880 --> 00:21:51,120
+free طبعا هذا هيكون إيش risky risk
+
+277
+00:21:51,120 --> 00:21:53,960
+free اللي هو money market instrument هي مكتوب risk
+
+278
+00:21:53,960 --> 00:22:00,680
+freeتسعين الف risk free ال equities مية و تلتاش
+
+279
+00:22:00,680 --> 00:22:05,840
+اربعة مية ال equities يعني إيهاش؟ القاسهم equities
+
+280
+00:22:05,840 --> 00:22:13,020
+كدهش استثمر فيهم؟ مية و تلتاش اربعة مية ال bonds
+
+281
+00:22:13,020 --> 00:22:15,900
+استثمر في ال bonds ستة وتسعين و ستمية
+
+282
+00:22:19,510 --> 00:22:22,150
+طيب، هلو لو احنا جماعة ما جداش استثمر في ال risk
+
+283
+00:22:22,150 --> 00:22:26,630
+مية و تلتاش و ستة و تسعة و ستمية بطلعوا متين و
+
+284
+00:22:26,630 --> 00:22:31,690
+عشرة طيب، جداش تركيبة المحفظة هذه؟ جداش نسبة ال
+
+285
+00:22:31,690 --> 00:22:36,510
+risk free ل ال risk asset؟ بحسبها هو مستثمر تلتمية
+
+286
+00:22:36,510 --> 00:22:45,670
+تسعين risk free و متين و عشرة okay متين و عشرة
+
+287
+00:22:45,670 --> 00:22:48,130
+risk asset جداش بطلع النسبة؟
+
+288
+00:22:53,250 --> 00:23:03,650
+هنشوف ال risk free تلاتين في المية okay والتانية
+
+289
+00:23:03,650 --> 00:23:08,810
+سبعين
+
+290
+00:23:08,810 --> 00:23:13,030
+في المية هتكون طيب سبعين في المية طيب هلا نركز على
+
+291
+00:23:13,030 --> 00:23:18,260
+السبعين في المية هدولوزن ال equity احنا استثمرنا
+
+292
+00:23:18,260 --> 00:23:23,420
+بال equity 113 400 تكسيب على 210 بطلع استثمرنا 54%
+
+293
+00:23:23,420 --> 00:23:30,780
+من ال portfolio 54% من ال risk assets هي equity و
+
+294
+00:23:30,780 --> 00:23:37,320
+46% هي cash اي bonds okay
+
+295
+00:23:37,320 --> 00:23:38,460
+طيب
+
+296
+00:23:43,350 --> 00:23:48,750
+نيجي هذا، قولنا احنا المحفظة هذه 30% ريسكي risk
+
+297
+00:23:48,750 --> 00:23:59,710
+-free و 70% كم ريسكي risk-asset إذا احنا اعتبرنا
+
+298
+00:23:59,710 --> 00:24:08,530
+ال risk-assets Y فبتكون هذه 1-Y، مظبوط؟ إذا
+
+299
+00:24:08,530 --> 00:24:14,360
+اعتبرنا هذه Y فبتكون هذه 1-YOkay؟ زي ما انتوا
+
+300
+00:24:14,360 --> 00:24:21,820
+شايفين احنا
+
+301
+00:24:21,820 --> 00:24:28,340
+مثال الفات خلينا نبعث الكلام هلا احنا حكيناها
+
+302
+00:24:28,340 --> 00:24:36,740
+تلاتين في المية risk free كام؟ تسعين الف صح؟ و هذه
+
+303
+00:24:36,740 --> 00:24:42,140
+تقريبا عندنا .. عندنا كام؟
+
+304
+00:24:44,750 --> 00:24:50,910
+عنا مية و تلتاش equity وعنا ستة وتسعين ستة وتسعين
+
+305
+00:24:50,910 --> 00:24:59,230
+و ستمية bonds هدول اللي أنا بظللهم هدول risky اللي
+
+306
+00:24:59,230 --> 00:25:03,250
+هي بتشمل كام كلها بعضها سبعين في المية وهذه بتشمل
+
+307
+00:25:03,250 --> 00:25:07,750
+تلاتين في المية بس انا ال risky جسمتها باسمين bond
+
+308
+00:25:07,750 --> 00:25:17,120
+equity و bonds فإذا اعتبرنا هذه YY بتساوي 70 بتكون
+
+309
+00:25:17,120 --> 00:25:21,920
+واحد ناقص Y بتساوي 30 يعني إذا كانت Y سبع .. سبعين
+
+310
+00:25:21,920 --> 00:25:25,380
+بده تكون واحد ناقص Y، يداش؟ تلاتين، بدهاش يعني
+
+311
+00:25:25,380 --> 00:25:32,320
+علم، لأ؟ طيب، هيها Y بتين و عشرة، حجم الاستثمار
+
+312
+00:25:32,320 --> 00:25:35,680
+بتين و عشرة كله هذا، بتين و عشرة على تلاتمائة ألف
+
+313
+00:25:35,680 --> 00:25:40,160
+واحد ناقص Y له تسعين ألف على تلاتمائة ألف، مابدهاش
+
+314
+00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:46,890
+شي كتير يعنيرسبة ال equity هي 37.8 من كل المحفظة
+
+315
+00:25:46,890 --> 00:25:53,370
+نسبة ال bond 32.2 لو احنا جمعنا هذه زائد هذه هتطلع
+
+316
+00:25:53,370 --> 00:25:59,310
+هذه ال equity اجمعوا ال equity مع ال bonds هتطلع
+
+317
+00:25:59,310 --> 00:26:03,210
+هذه كلها the risk free assets بدا نحكي عن risk
+
+318
+00:26:03,210 --> 00:26:07,850
+free assets ال risk free assets only the
+
+319
+00:26:07,850 --> 00:26:12,420
+government can issue default free bondsبس الحكومات
+
+320
+00:26:12,420 --> 00:26:19,840
+اللي بتصدر risk-free assets اللي هو أدوات مالية
+
+321
+00:26:19,840 --> 00:26:22,820
+خالية من المخاطر، طب إحنا عندنا في فلسطين، في
+
+322
+00:26:22,820 --> 00:26:25,560
+عندنا أدوات خالية خالية من المخاطر؟
+
+323
+00:26:29,510 --> 00:26:32,830
+يعني هال .. لو اجينا احنا سألنا سؤال بسيط انت
+
+324
+00:26:32,830 --> 00:26:35,490
+أستاذ قاعد بتدرسنا على أمريكا و ما أمريكا و عملنا
+
+325
+00:26:35,490 --> 00:26:39,490
+دوشة في الموضوع طب احنا بنكون محفظة استثمارية فيها
+
+326
+00:26:39,490 --> 00:26:47,770
+risk-free assets و فيها risk assets طب
+
+327
+00:26:47,770 --> 00:26:51,730
+عندنا سؤال عن كمية؟ ماعناش؟ ايو .. هذا سؤال انا
+
+328
+00:26:51,730 --> 00:26:56,560
+سألكوا في chapter one لما قلتلكمevaluate the
+
+329
+00:26:56,560 --> 00:27:00,180
+investment environment in Palestinian territories
+
+330
+00:27:00,180 --> 00:27:04,260
+احنا فيه عندنا risk-free assets ال risk-free
+
+331
+00:27:04,260 --> 00:27:08,260
+assets حسب سلطة النخدة الفلسطينية بتحدد مثلا عندنا
+
+332
+00:27:08,260 --> 00:27:12,720
+سعر إعادة الخسم اللي بتحدد سلطة النخدة الفلسطينية
+
+333
+00:27:12,720 --> 00:27:18,360
+هذا يعتبر risk-free في عندنا مثلا اللي هو نسبة
+
+334
+00:27:18,360 --> 00:27:21,640
+الاحتياط اللي بتفرض سلطة النخدة على البنوك هذا
+
+335
+00:27:21,640 --> 00:27:24,880
+نسبة الاحتياط as a indicator ل risk-free assets
+
+336
+00:27:26,460 --> 00:27:30,380
+Okay يعني ممكن نستخدم other approaches مش شرط انه
+
+337
+00:27:30,380 --> 00:27:34,400
+treasury bills يعني أقل ان في كل دولة من الدول هما
+
+338
+00:27:34,400 --> 00:27:40,520
+they know what is the risk free assets طيب فهذا
+
+339
+00:27:40,520 --> 00:27:46,800
+اجابتنا للسؤال portfolio
+
+340
+00:27:46,800 --> 00:27:49,800
+of one risk assets and risk free assets اذا كنا
+
+341
+00:27:49,800 --> 00:27:54,660
+نعمل محفظة استثمارية بتتكون منrisk assets risk
+
+342
+00:27:54,660 --> 00:27:57,220
+assets و risk free assets it's possible to create
+
+343
+00:27:57,220 --> 00:27:59,920
+a complete portfolio by splitting investment funds
+
+344
+00:27:59,920 --> 00:28:05,700
+between safe and risky assets let's y portion
+
+345
+00:28:05,700 --> 00:28:09,500
+allocated the risky portfolio هذا شرحنا one minus
+
+346
+00:28:09,500 --> 00:28:13,440
+one one minus y portion to be invested in risky
+
+347
+00:28:13,440 --> 00:28:19,100
+free assets F يعني احنا بدنا نعمل محفظة هذه نفسها
+
+348
+00:28:19,100 --> 00:28:25,000
+ال one minus one نسميها Fإيش يعني F؟ Risk-free و
+
+349
+00:28:25,000 --> 00:28:30,660
+ال .. و ال 70 هذه سميها B اللي هو Risk Assets okay
+
+350
+00:28:30,660 --> 00:28:36,620
+إيش بيصير معنى؟ بيصير معنى example using a chapter
+
+351
+00:28:36,620 --> 00:28:44,860
+ترجع ل مثال في صفحة في .. في chapter 6.4 numbers
+
+352
+00:28:44,860 --> 00:28:50,400
+إذا كان عند ال risk-free 7% risk
+
+353
+00:28:50,400 --> 00:28:58,910
+-free 7%و ال sigma of risk free is zero انتبهوا يا
+
+354
+00:28:58,910 --> 00:29:09,530
+بنات هذا محطة أسئلة كتيرة ال risk free لو
+
+355
+00:29:09,530 --> 00:29:16,230
+كان ال risk free X يعني دي risk free X دي sigma of
+
+356
+00:29:16,230 --> 00:29:18,970
+risk free قدش هتساوي
+
+357
+00:29:23,900 --> 00:29:27,920
+العائد الخالي من المخاطر بيساوي X رقمه لأن X
+
+358
+00:29:27,920 --> 00:29:36,020
+بيساوي 8% سيجما F طيب
+
+359
+00:29:36,020 --> 00:29:42,340
+خليني انا .. يا بابا انتبه هذا .. ارجع طلعوا هان
+
+360
+00:29:42,340 --> 00:29:47,180
+.. اه بالظبط طلعوا هان .. بنات فاتحولي بالكوا هان
+
+361
+00:29:47,180 --> 00:29:50,560
+ال R هان تمانية في المية طب السيجما كدهش مشقولنا
+
+362
+00:29:50,560 --> 00:29:51,800
+احنا هي سيجما وهي ER
+
+363
+00:29:56,010 --> 00:30:06,330
+السيجما جداش؟ السيجما سفر سيجما سفر اي
+
+364
+00:30:06,330 --> 00:30:13,130
+نقطة موجودة هنا تساوي 9% ستكون السيجما high هاي
+
+365
+00:30:13,130 --> 00:30:21,450
+السيجما تحتها RF 7% سيجما RF 0% هذا السؤال سأسألكم
+
+366
+00:30:22,680 --> 00:30:27,240
+في الامتحان حصلت فيها هل
+
+367
+00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:32,460
+جيت بالفضاء يا بنات بالفضاء بالفضاء بتجاوبوا نيح
+
+368
+00:30:32,460 --> 00:30:36,620
+بس لما نيجي الامتحان لأنه احنا انتبه بس أحكي على
+
+369
+00:30:36,620 --> 00:30:39,980
+الكلمتين شبابنا و بناتنا للأسف الشديد بيجروا ليلة
+
+370
+00:30:39,980 --> 00:30:45,640
+امتحانو اللي بنجمعه بسرعة بننساه بسرعة فهد .. هد
+
+371
+00:30:45,640 --> 00:30:49,440
+مشكلتكم فأنا بنصحكم ان تقروا قبل الامتحان ترتبوا
+
+372
+00:30:49,440 --> 00:30:54,460
+حالكم تعملوا جدول انه يوم الامتحان او قبل الامتحان
+
+373
+00:30:54,460 --> 00:31:01,160
+بيوم هي بس مراجعة بس يعني just Beijing طيب
+
+374
+00:31:01,160 --> 00:31:07,360
+ال Rf 7% ال Sigma Rf 0%
+
+375
+00:31:10,390 --> 00:31:18,970
+الـ Expected Rp 15%، الـ Sigma B 22%، الـ Y is a
+
+376
+00:31:18,970 --> 00:31:26,890
+percentage in B, Y1 is a percentage of RF مثلًا،
+
+377
+00:31:26,890 --> 00:31:29,890
+الـ expected return on the complete portfolio is
+
+378
+00:31:29,890 --> 00:31:32,770
+the risk-free rate plus the weight of B times the
+
+379
+00:31:32,770 --> 00:31:38,840
+risk premium طلع على المعادلة هناالـ expected
+
+380
+00:31:38,840 --> 00:31:42,500
+return of the complete portfolio هاد ال C complete
+
+381
+00:31:42,500 --> 00:31:48,480
+portfolio بتساوى ال RF احنا عارفينها زائد ال Y
+
+382
+00:31:48,480 --> 00:31:55,340
+times ال Y طبعا هان ال weight اللي احنا أخدناه
+
+383
+00:31:55,340 --> 00:31:56,440
+الوزن
+
+384
+00:32:03,240 --> 00:32:10,220
+بس احنا هو .. لما انا بقول وزن ال B يساوي Y ووزن
+
+385
+00:32:10,220 --> 00:32:15,960
+the weight of one minus Y is equal one minus Y or
+
+386
+00:32:15,960 --> 00:32:23,160
+F بس بدنا أحرف so RF plus Y طبعا عارفين ARP minus
+
+387
+00:32:23,160 --> 00:32:28,540
+RF وبالتالي بتساوي الإجابة ال complete portfolio
+
+388
+00:32:28,540 --> 00:32:30,060
+من الكلام اللي احنا خدناه
+
+389
+00:32:33,790 --> 00:32:38,870
+معطيات طبعا اه هاي معطيات بعدين ال complete
+
+390
+00:32:38,870 --> 00:32:45,850
+portfolio بيساوي 7 plus y 15-7 بس احنا عوضنا مش
+
+391
+00:32:45,850 --> 00:32:50,170
+اكتر طيب لسه نكمل المثال ال risk of the complete
+
+392
+00:32:50,170 --> 00:32:53,110
+portfolio is ايش risk of complete portfolio؟ يعني
+
+393
+00:32:53,110 --> 00:32:57,670
+ال sigma تنعد c ال complete portfolio ايش بتشمل؟
+
+394
+00:32:57,670 --> 00:33:06,750
+بتشمل ال sigma ال y والواحد minus yيعني الوزن تبع
+
+395
+00:33:06,750 --> 00:33:12,350
+ال risk asset و الوزن تبع ال risk free assets so
+
+396
+00:33:12,350 --> 00:33:14,430
+the risk of the complete portfolio is the weight
+
+397
+00:33:14,430 --> 00:33:22,910
+of B times the risk of B يعني sigma C يعني شوفوا
+
+398
+00:33:22,910 --> 00:33:29,650
+احنا ايش قلنا قلنا هذي sigma اللي هي ال 1 minus Y
+
+399
+00:33:29,650 --> 00:33:37,150
+هذي sigma ال Yهذه كلها مع بعضها شوفوا هذا بدا
+
+400
+00:33:37,150 --> 00:33:43,810
+أظللها بدا تكون sigma c اللي هي sigma c منطقيا
+
+401
+00:33:43,810 --> 00:33:51,030
+هتساوي sigma y زائد sigma 1 minus y، مظبوط؟ هذا
+
+402
+00:33:51,030 --> 00:33:54,110
+بفضوء يعني أشرحلكم إياها يعني أنا لو دلت الأمور
+
+403
+00:33:54,110 --> 00:34:00,870
+بضل ماشي فيها طيب إذا احنا نعرف sigma 1y بتساوي
+
+404
+00:34:00,870 --> 00:34:06,050
+سفر، صح؟لأن ال sigma تبعت ال risk free حكينا فيها
+
+405
+00:34:06,050 --> 00:34:10,730
+تساوي سفر طب إذا ال sigma هذي تساوي سفر إذا sigma
+
+406
+00:34:10,730 --> 00:34:17,490
+C تساوي sigma B إيش
+
+407
+00:34:17,490 --> 00:34:23,870
+رأيك انت شايفها هم طبعا تساوي سفر إذا sigma C
+
+408
+00:34:23,870 --> 00:34:29,490
+بتساوي إيش و هذي رياضيات إيش احنا بس جيبنا هذي
+
+409
+00:34:29,490 --> 00:34:33,340
+تساوي سفر و روحنا عوضنا فيها مش أكترسيجما C بتساوي
+
+410
+00:34:33,340 --> 00:34:41,120
+سيجما B بجد
+
+411
+00:34:41,120 --> 00:34:45,840
+بنات فيها صعوبة هذه؟ هذه واضحة مافيها مشكلة يعني
+
+412
+00:34:45,840 --> 00:34:49,840
+احنا بس روح نهيها انا قولتلكوا السيجما تحت واحد
+
+413
+00:34:49,840 --> 00:34:54,980
+minus one سيجما تبعت risk free وهي تساوي سفر هذه
+
+414
+00:34:54,980 --> 00:34:59,820
+سيجما Y مابتساويش سفر بتساوي something هناوبالتالي
+
+415
+00:34:59,820 --> 00:35:02,640
+الـ Complete Portfolio هذي كلها الـ Sigma C كلها
+
+416
+00:35:02,640 --> 00:35:11,140
+بتساوي Sigma B very simple okay يعني لو أنا بجيكوا
+
+417
+00:35:11,140 --> 00:35:14,640
+في الامتحان بقولكم Sigma ال expected return تبعها
+
+418
+00:35:14,640 --> 00:35:18,040
+سوى كذا و ال expected يعني مثلا لو قلنا ال
+
+419
+00:35:18,040 --> 00:35:25,820
+expected return تبعت B بتساوي 7% و expected return
+
+420
+00:35:25,820 --> 00:35:35,790
+ofand the RF is three percent وقلنا لكوا sigma B
+
+421
+00:35:35,790 --> 00:35:44,270
+بتساوي one point two calculate sigma
+
+422
+00:35:44,270 --> 00:35:49,170
+C تفقد قبل ما تحكوا calculate sigma C تسعة وتسعين
+
+423
+00:35:49,170 --> 00:35:52,930
+في المياه بالبنات يا أستاذ قولهم اه طبعا هذا خبرتي
+
+424
+00:35:52,930 --> 00:35:57,670
+مع الطلاب و الطالبانمش ماتعطينا انت sigma .. sigma
+
+425
+00:35:57,670 --> 00:36:03,390
+.. sigma F مش ماتعطينا ايها طب يعني انا يعني
+
+426
+00:36:03,390 --> 00:36:07,170
+حاططكوا هيك يعني السؤال طب انا عارف ان انا
+
+427
+00:36:07,170 --> 00:36:09,910
+ماتعطيكوا .. مش ماتعطيكوا ايها بعد الامتحان
+
+428
+00:36:09,910 --> 00:36:15,190
+هقولكوا ايها لأن sigma ال B ال one minus Y بتساوي
+
+429
+00:36:15,190 --> 00:36:19,130
+سافر فابدى اقولكياها يعني ماهدياش assumption يعني
+
+430
+00:36:19,130 --> 00:36:24,150
+بدي هي لازم تعرفيها فهتكون ال sigma C كده هتساوي
+
+431
+00:36:24,890 --> 00:36:31,830
+one point two بس هتكون واحد فاصلة اتنين لأنه قلنا
+
+432
+00:36:31,830 --> 00:36:46,310
+احنا sigma c بتساوي sigma b ايوة
+
+433
+00:36:46,310 --> 00:36:52,080
+ما هي احنا ها مش قلنا sigma c بتساوي sigma bطبعا
+
+434
+00:36:52,080 --> 00:36:56,580
+لما احنا نجي نجي نقول له sigma C بتساوي اللي هو
+
+435
+00:36:56,580 --> 00:37:05,320
+one minus one times sigma بتاعة ال F مظبوط plus Y
+
+436
+00:37:05,320 --> 00:37:13,440
+sigma بتاعة ال C بتاعة ال B مظبوط فهذه بتساوي تطلع
+
+437
+00:37:13,440 --> 00:37:21,000
+سفرفبتسيق ال sigma c بتساوي y sigma b لسه مكملناش
+
+438
+00:37:21,000 --> 00:37:25,260
+فاكرين لما قولتلك و احنا لازم نطلع ال y لما نطلع
+
+439
+00:37:25,260 --> 00:37:28,940
+الوزن مابنعش نضل نجرب و نجرب في معادلة بتطلع الوزن
+
+440
+00:37:28,940 --> 00:37:33,860
+طب اذا y ايش هتساوي هنا من رياضية التاني اعدادي
+
+441
+00:37:33,860 --> 00:37:37,600
+يعني
+
+442
+00:37:37,600 --> 00:37:43,040
+هي sigma c بتساوي y sigma b مظبوط من رياضية التاني
+
+443
+00:37:43,040 --> 00:37:53,170
+اعدادي ايش هتساويy هتساوي sigma c على sigma b طيب
+
+444
+00:37:53,170 --> 00:37:57,690
+اذا انا معرف sigma c و بعرف sigma b y جداش هتكون
+
+445
+00:37:57,690 --> 00:38:02,270
+هاطلعها شوفتوا كيف احنا شوي شوي طلعنا لما وصلنا
+
+446
+00:38:02,270 --> 00:38:07,550
+لهذه ال equation لأ
+
+447
+00:38:07,550 --> 00:38:13,430
+جصدي الاشتقاقات انتوا خليكوا على اخر اشي هذا لأ
+
+448
+00:38:13,430 --> 00:38:19,170
+لسه مخلصشطيب هذا ال .. هذا بقاش بيذكركن تبقوا بس
+
+449
+00:38:19,170 --> 00:38:25,330
+يلا اللي بيحذر هذا أنا بتعطيه خمس درجات هذه
+
+450
+00:38:25,330 --> 00:38:30,270
+المعادلة بقاش بتذكركن لأ لأ فى شغل احنا خدناها
+
+451
+00:38:30,270 --> 00:38:36,010
+شكله طلعوا كيف هذه
+
+452
+00:38:36,010 --> 00:38:40,310
+الحرارة
+
+453
+00:38:40,310 --> 00:38:47,620
+ده اللى هتعرفطلعوا طلعوا شكلها مش شكلها إيش اللي
+
+454
+00:38:47,620 --> 00:38:56,000
+فوق و اللي تحت اسمعتوا في شغلة اسمها مرة ما أنا
+
+455
+00:38:56,000 --> 00:39:03,120
+عارف اسمعتوا في شغلة اسمها شار بريشو شار هذي شار
+
+456
+00:39:03,120 --> 00:39:06,700
+بريشو أصلا شوفتوا وان أحنا بالأخير كلها الدوشة
+
+457
+00:39:06,700 --> 00:39:10,950
+وصلناها عشان نشتغ شار بريشوبن .. ال slope هيساوي
+
+458
+00:39:10,950 --> 00:39:15,050
+expected return of P minus RF على sigma P بطلع
+
+459
+00:39:15,050 --> 00:39:20,110
+تمانية ع اتنين و عشرين هذا المثال يا بنات بترجعوه
+
+460
+00:39:20,110 --> 00:39:25,030
+في ال .. في الكتاب و .. و احنا هنعطيكوا مشابه له
+
+461
+00:39:25,030 --> 00:39:29,650
+بالامتحان تمام؟ نجف عند هذا ال slides
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/I2r7viV5JKM_raw.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/I2r7viV5JKM_raw.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..78b48b35d96ad9d135ad8fa09e201bc40fe5030c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/I2r7viV5JKM_raw.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1568 @@
+1
+00:00:20,810 --> 00:00:26,690
+بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم احنا اليوم بنحكي عن chapter
+
+2
+00:00:26,690 --> 00:00:30,810
+eleven أو chapter four or chapter eleven, the same
+
+3
+00:00:30,810 --> 00:00:38,090
+ال chapter الرابع تمام حسب الخطة بتاعتنا و سابقا
+
+4
+00:00:38,090 --> 00:00:40,890
+كنا نحكي عن ال chapter one و chapter two و chapter
+
+5
+00:00:40,890 --> 00:00:46,050
+three كنا نحكي عن ال securities and how we trade
+
+6
+00:00:46,050 --> 00:00:49,840
+on these securitiesوكيف احنا بنتاجر بهذه ال
+
+7
+00:00:49,840 --> 00:00:56,160
+securities يعني الأدوات المالية اليوم بدنا to ask
+
+8
+00:00:56,160 --> 00:00:59,140
+a big question whether the pricing system is
+
+9
+00:00:59,140 --> 00:01:03,880
+efficient or not يعني هل التسعير هو efficient كفوء
+
+10
+00:01:03,880 --> 00:01:08,420
+ولا لأ يعني هل الأسواق المالية كفوء او لأ خليني
+
+11
+00:01:08,420 --> 00:01:12,340
+أدى بالسؤال الأول اللي احنا سألناه اللي هو ال
+
+12
+00:01:12,340 --> 00:01:17,510
+pricingلو كان عندى انا سعر لشركة تمانتاش يعني مثلا
+
+13
+00:01:17,510 --> 00:01:21,870
+نحكي ياهو شرق سعر سهم ياهو اتنين و عشرين دولار
+
+14
+00:01:21,870 --> 00:01:26,550
+okay اتنين
+
+15
+00:01:26,550 --> 00:01:30,490
+و عشرين دولار the question is does this price
+
+16
+00:01:30,490 --> 00:01:36,090
+reflectThe actual performance of Yahoo or not يعني
+
+17
+00:01:36,090 --> 00:01:40,950
+هل 22 دولار بتعكس الوضع الحقيقي لياهو this is the
+
+18
+00:01:40,950 --> 00:01:45,730
+question if إذا كان 22 دولار بتعكس الوضع الحقيقي
+
+19
+00:01:45,730 --> 00:01:50,850
+لياهو مع كلام ال pricing system is efficient يعني
+
+20
+00:01:50,850 --> 00:01:52,010
+بيكون التسعير كفوء
+
+21
+00:01:54,630 --> 00:01:58,750
+الـ 22 لا يتفكّر بإدارة الـ Yahoo الواقعي، هذا
+
+22
+00:01:58,750 --> 00:02:05,930
+يعني أن نظام الأسعار غير كفوء ما
+
+23
+00:02:05,930 --> 00:02:10,790
+هي المعاملات التي تتجارب إذا كانت الأسعار مفيدة أو
+
+24
+00:02:10,790 --> 00:02:15,790
+غير مفيدة؟ يعني إيش هي ال parameters أو المعلميات
+
+25
+00:02:15,790 --> 00:02:19,470
+اللي من خلالها بيحكي أن نظام الأسعار مفيد أو غير
+
+26
+00:02:19,470 --> 00:02:26,080
+مفيد؟one of the main parameters the information
+
+27
+00:02:26,080 --> 00:02:34,260
+المعلومات information we divided information into
+
+28
+00:02:34,260 --> 00:02:37,400
+two main types private information and public
+
+29
+00:02:37,400 --> 00:02:43,440
+information معلومات خاصة ومعلومات عامة generally
+
+30
+00:02:43,440 --> 00:02:48,160
+speaking the board of directors and the executives
+
+31
+00:02:50,000 --> 00:02:54,840
+keep the private information يعني عادة بيكون عندهم
+
+32
+00:02:54,840 --> 00:02:57,880
+ال private information these people known as
+
+33
+00:02:57,880 --> 00:03:02,700
+insiders these
+
+34
+00:03:02,700 --> 00:03:07,200
+people known as insiders be careful we don't mean
+
+35
+00:03:07,200 --> 00:03:13,540
+that insiders like lower management levels or the
+
+36
+00:03:13,540 --> 00:03:17,500
+normal employees مابنعنيش بال insiders هم الموظفين
+
+37
+00:03:17,500 --> 00:03:21,440
+بتوع الشركةbecause sometimes these employees are
+
+38
+00:03:21,440 --> 00:03:24,660
+even far away from the decision making process
+
+39
+00:03:24,660 --> 00:03:28,760
+يعني هدول الموظفين بيكونوا بعيدين عن اتخاذ القرار
+
+40
+00:03:28,760 --> 00:03:31,940
+for instance as I gave you example earlier about
+
+41
+00:03:31,940 --> 00:03:37,150
+about the company of Toyotawhen Toyota design a
+
+42
+00:03:37,150 --> 00:03:40,310
+new generation of their car a very limited number
+
+43
+00:03:40,310 --> 00:03:44,010
+of employees know about this يعني لما شركة Toyota
+
+44
+00:03:44,010 --> 00:03:47,770
+بتقرر الجيل الجديد تبع السيارات بتوعهم عدد محدود
+
+45
+00:03:47,770 --> 00:03:52,430
+من الموظفين I mean the big people in Toyota they
+
+46
+00:03:52,430 --> 00:03:56,340
+know thiseven Samsung even Apple نفس الشغلة
+
+47
+00:03:56,340 --> 00:03:59,420
+Samsung و نفس الشغلة Apple even in the local
+
+48
+00:03:59,420 --> 00:04:02,800
+companies حتى الشركات المحلية يعني very very very
+
+49
+00:04:02,800 --> 00:04:06,720
+limited employees know about the strategic
+
+50
+00:04:06,720 --> 00:04:11,260
+decision of the business فهدول نسميهم ال insider's
+
+51
+00:04:11,260 --> 00:04:16,200
+other people known as outsiders ال outsiders
+
+52
+00:04:20,350 --> 00:04:24,050
+outsiders هم الناس ال public الناس العاديين عندهم
+
+53
+00:04:24,050 --> 00:04:26,770
+معلومات عامة عن الشركة public information public
+
+54
+00:04:26,770 --> 00:04:30,330
+information is historical information ال public
+
+55
+00:04:30,330 --> 00:04:32,930
+information هي معلومات عامة historical information
+
+56
+00:04:32,930 --> 00:04:35,310
+ال people already know about this information
+
+57
+00:04:35,310 --> 00:04:40,190
+والناس already بيعرفوا أن هاي المعلومات if the
+
+58
+00:04:40,190 --> 00:04:43,270
+price let's go back to the price if the price
+
+59
+00:04:43,270 --> 00:04:46,840
+reflect all of the available informationwhether
+
+60
+00:04:46,840 --> 00:04:50,980
+private information or public information so the
+
+61
+00:04:50,980 --> 00:04:54,320
+market is efficient إذا كان السعر بيعكس كل
+
+62
+00:04:54,320 --> 00:04:56,720
+المعلومات سواء كانت معلومات داخلية أو معلومات
+
+63
+00:04:56,720 --> 00:05:02,260
+خارجية أي معلومات so the price is efficient السعر
+
+64
+00:05:02,260 --> 00:05:09,020
+بيكون efficient كفو okaythis lead us to talk about
+
+65
+00:05:09,020 --> 00:05:12,580
+the efficient market hypothesis which is the main
+
+66
+00:05:12,580 --> 00:05:16,640
+objective of this chapter هذا بيخلّينا نحكي على
+
+67
+00:05:16,640 --> 00:05:24,120
+النظرية أو الفرابية من الأسواق الدولية the first
+
+68
+00:05:24,120 --> 00:05:25,340
+people talked about this
+
+69
+00:05:46,490 --> 00:05:51,070
+ماحدش بيستطيع يتنبأ الأسعار where is the price is
+
+70
+00:05:51,070 --> 00:05:58,330
+going يعني بالأهم طرحأو أهم فرضية بالأسواق المالية
+
+71
+00:05:58,330 --> 00:06:04,570
+الكفوة انه ماحد بتنبأ where is the price is going
+
+72
+00:06:04,570 --> 00:06:11,110
+okay for instance today we are in 23rd of March
+
+73
+00:06:11,110 --> 00:06:19,690
+احنا في 23 مارس my question is nowtomorrow this or
+
+74
+00:06:19,690 --> 00:06:23,410
+on monday the market will open can you predict
+
+75
+00:06:23,410 --> 00:06:26,410
+where is the price is going going up or going down
+
+76
+00:06:26,410 --> 00:06:30,550
+and to what extent you can predict on this if the
+
+77
+00:06:30,550 --> 00:06:33,430
+market is efficient no one can predict where is
+
+78
+00:06:33,430 --> 00:06:39,710
+the market is going is a candle why because the
+
+79
+00:06:39,710 --> 00:06:44,200
+prices already reflect all of the informationلأن
+
+80
+00:06:44,200 --> 00:06:47,460
+الأسعار أصلا بتعرف كل المعلومات ال prices are
+
+81
+00:06:47,460 --> 00:06:54,600
+sensitive الأسعار هي حساسة كتير وما ياخد بعين
+
+82
+00:06:54,600 --> 00:07:01,980
+الاعتبار كل المعلومات okay and
+
+83
+00:07:01,980 --> 00:07:05,440
+based on this the price follow a random walk
+
+84
+00:07:05,440 --> 00:07:13,480
+الأسعار تمشي random walkRandom walk تمشي بطريقة
+
+85
+00:07:13,480 --> 00:07:17,220
+عشوائية there
+
+86
+00:07:17,220 --> 00:07:22,240
+is no prediction on where is the price is going if
+
+87
+00:07:22,240 --> 00:07:26,760
+anyone in this universe argue that he or she can
+
+88
+00:07:26,760 --> 00:07:30,780
+predict the price don't believe him or her اذا حد
+
+89
+00:07:30,780 --> 00:07:33,780
+في العالم كله بيحكيك وانا بقدر اتنبأ السعر و انا
+
+90
+00:07:33,780 --> 00:07:37,680
+رايح وين جاي ماتصدقوهش انا بحكي عن ال efficient
+
+91
+00:07:37,680 --> 00:07:38,240
+markets
+
+92
+00:07:41,580 --> 00:07:43,800
+في ال efficient market في الأسواق المالية الكفوية
+
+93
+00:07:43,800 --> 00:07:47,940
+there is no way any people to predict where is the
+
+94
+00:07:47,940 --> 00:07:51,980
+price is going maybe by chance they can do this
+
+95
+00:07:51,980 --> 00:07:56,780
+ممكن بالصدفة يعرفوا but the prices reflect itself
+
+96
+00:07:56,780 --> 00:08:00,160
+and change their routes ممكن الأسعار نفسها سوف
+
+97
+00:08:00,160 --> 00:08:04,740
+تتغير مسارها and this is .. we will talk about
+
+98
+00:08:04,740 --> 00:08:07,020
+this in behavioral finance لما نحكي عن behavioral
+
+99
+00:08:07,020 --> 00:08:13,330
+financeالسلوك .. السلوك المال او السلوك التمويلى
+
+100
+00:08:13,330 --> 00:08:18,730
+هنشوف ان ال price بتغير
+
+101
+00:08:18,730 --> 00:08:25,530
+توجهاتها حسب ال investors ال prices are as likely
+
+102
+00:08:25,530 --> 00:08:31,710
+to go up as to go down on any particular day يعني
+
+103
+00:08:31,710 --> 00:08:38,160
+if you ask me to buy or to sellإذا بتسألوني buy or
+
+104
+00:08:38,160 --> 00:08:41,140
+sell I say to you it doesn't matter to buy or to
+
+105
+00:08:41,140 --> 00:08:47,440
+sell مش مهم buy ولا sell because if you say buy 50
+
+106
+00:08:47,440 --> 00:08:51,680
+% buy and 50% sell no one can predict on this
+
+107
+00:08:51,680 --> 00:08:56,080
+because the market is floating at the moment so
+
+108
+00:08:56,080 --> 00:09:00,580
+prices are as likely to go up as to go down يعني
+
+109
+00:09:00,580 --> 00:09:04,500
+بالنسبة ما هي بتطلع هي بتنزل يعني if we are here
+
+110
+00:09:05,260 --> 00:09:10,080
+and you buy or you bought don't regret that you
+
+111
+00:09:10,080 --> 00:09:14,900
+bought and if you sold don't regret that you sold
+
+112
+00:09:14,900 --> 00:09:18,020
+يعني إذا إنتوا اشتريتوا ما تدوموش و إذا إنتوا
+
+113
+00:09:18,020 --> 00:09:21,700
+بيبتموش اشتريتوا ما تدوموش because buying and
+
+114
+00:09:21,700 --> 00:09:27,660
+selling have similar weight إنه نفس الوزن this is
+
+115
+00:09:27,660 --> 00:09:30,540
+in the efficient markets هذا بال efficient markets
+
+116
+00:09:30,540 --> 00:09:35,420
+even if you have private informationحتى لو كان
+
+117
+00:09:35,420 --> 00:09:39,860
+عندك معلومات داخلية، why؟ ليش لو عندنا معلومات
+
+118
+00:09:39,860 --> 00:09:43,220
+داخلية حتى ما بنقدرش نستفيد منها؟ because the
+
+119
+00:09:43,220 --> 00:09:46,740
+price in the efficient market is already reflected
+
+120
+00:09:46,740 --> 00:09:50,940
+in the new information لأن الأسعار في الأسواق
+
+121
+00:09:50,940 --> 00:09:54,340
+المالية الكافة و أقابلة بتعكس المعلومات أصلا قبل
+
+122
+00:09:54,340 --> 00:10:00,900
+ما تحصل في السوق because the price predicts the
+
+123
+00:10:00,900 --> 00:10:05,960
+futureلأن الأسعار تتوقع المستقبل هي is like a
+
+124
+00:10:05,960 --> 00:10:11,120
+human being زي كأنها الإنسان okay predict the
+
+125
+00:10:11,120 --> 00:10:15,600
+future so if the price predict the future and you
+
+126
+00:10:15,600 --> 00:10:19,460
+have a new information in the prediction process
+
+127
+00:10:19,460 --> 00:10:21,880
+the price already considered the new information
+
+128
+00:10:23,140 --> 00:10:26,880
+this is a philosophical point of view، هاي طريقة
+
+129
+00:10:26,880 --> 00:10:30,880
+فلسفية، بتحكوا بالأسعار، إذا كان الأسعار نفسها
+
+130
+00:10:30,880 --> 00:10:35,000
+بتتنبأ للمستقبل، فأي معلومة جديدة، أخطر السوق
+
+131
+00:10:35,000 --> 00:10:40,380
+بيكون ماخدها بالإعتبار، okay؟
+
+132
+00:10:40,380 --> 00:10:44,080
+and if there is a new information وإذا حتى فيه
+
+133
+00:10:44,080 --> 00:10:46,880
+معلومات جديدة، nobody can know where is the price
+
+134
+00:10:46,880 --> 00:10:52,220
+goingwhy؟ ليش؟ because no one predicts the
+
+135
+00:10:52,220 --> 00:10:56,440
+declaration of the new information ماحدش بيعرف أول
+
+136
+00:10:56,440 --> 00:11:00,160
+شي إيش ال implications تبعت المعلومات، هذا واحد،
+
+137
+00:11:00,160 --> 00:11:03,760
+اتنين، كمان ماحدش بيعرف متى سيتم الإعلان عن
+
+138
+00:11:03,760 --> 00:11:07,420
+المعلومات، it's like breaking news، like إيش؟
+
+139
+00:11:07,420 --> 00:11:12,520
+breaking news، like خبر عاجلخبر عاجل على إن
+
+140
+00:11:12,520 --> 00:11:16,760
+الشركات ممنوع مثلا إنه هي تحكي بالمعلومات كتير
+
+141
+00:11:16,760 --> 00:11:19,860
+خاصة بالشركة لازم يكون في conference و يعلنوا هذا
+
+142
+00:11:19,860 --> 00:11:23,500
+الموضوع فهذا خبر عاجل الشركة بتطلع و بتحكي
+
+143
+00:11:23,500 --> 00:11:27,460
+announce على ال strategy اتبعتهم فالكل بيكون
+
+144
+00:11:27,460 --> 00:11:30,200
+بتفاجأة و الأسعار بتتغير بطريقة عشوية
+
+145
+00:11:33,220 --> 00:11:37,860
+How do we explain random stock price change؟ إذا
+
+146
+00:11:37,860 --> 00:11:43,400
+الأسعار زي ما احنا حكيناها is randomly walk، يعني
+
+147
+00:11:43,400 --> 00:11:48,480
+we don't know whether the change is up or down،
+
+148
+00:11:48,480 --> 00:11:51,800
+this is fifty percent going up and fifty percent
+
+149
+00:11:51,800 --> 00:11:55,480
+is going down، خمسين في المياه احتمال تطلع، خمسين
+
+150
+00:11:55,480 --> 00:11:57,440
+في المياه احتمال تنخفض
+
+151
+00:12:04,050 --> 00:12:09,150
+أفشانت ماركت هيبوتيسي AMH أفشانت ماركت هيبوتيسي
+
+152
+00:12:09,150 --> 00:12:09,150
+AMH أفشانت ماركت هيبوتيسي AMH أفشانت ماركت
+
+153
+00:12:09,150 --> 00:12:10,730
+هيبوتيسي AMH أفشانت ماركت هيبوتيسي AMH أفشانت
+
+154
+00:12:10,730 --> 00:12:12,810
+ماركت هيبوتيسي AMH أفشانت ماركت هيبوتيسي AMH
+
+155
+00:12:12,810 --> 00:12:14,150
+أفشانت ماركت هيبوتيسي AMH أفشانت ماركت هيبوتيسي
+
+156
+00:12:14,150 --> 00:12:15,770
+AMH أفشانت ماركت هيبوتيسي AMH أفشانت ماركت
+
+157
+00:12:15,770 --> 00:12:19,270
+هيبوتيسي AMH أفشانت ماركت هيبوتيسي AMH أفشانت
+
+158
+00:12:19,270 --> 00:12:22,440
+ماركت هيبوتيسي AMH أفall available information
+
+159
+00:12:22,440 --> 00:12:24,920
+whether this information is private information or
+
+160
+00:12:24,920 --> 00:12:28,100
+public information سواء هي معلومات داخل الشركة أو
+
+161
+00:12:28,100 --> 00:12:31,380
+خارج الشركة الأصحاب already reflect all of these
+
+162
+00:12:31,380 --> 00:12:37,240
+available information okay a forecast تنبؤ a
+
+163
+00:12:37,240 --> 00:12:40,500
+forecast about favorable future performance leads
+
+164
+00:12:40,500 --> 00:12:44,760
+to favorable current performance التوقع لحدوث
+
+165
+00:12:44,760 --> 00:12:49,760
+إنجازات في المستقبلas market participants rush to
+
+166
+00:12:49,760 --> 00:12:53,480
+trade on a new information يعني الأسعار بتعكس
+
+167
+00:12:53,480 --> 00:12:56,140
+المعلومات حتى المعلومات المستقبلية اللي لسه ما
+
+168
+00:12:56,140 --> 00:13:01,460
+صارتش فلما تصير هذه المعلومات المستقبلية تحدث ف
+
+169
+00:13:01,460 --> 00:13:04,160
+already ال financial market market reflected this
+
+170
+00:13:04,160 --> 00:13:11,020
+بكون ال financial market بعرف الكلمة okay as
+
+171
+00:13:11,020 --> 00:13:13,740
+market participants rush to trade on a new
+
+172
+00:13:13,740 --> 00:13:17,550
+informationيعني ال market participants الناس اللي
+
+173
+00:13:17,550 --> 00:13:20,410
+مشاركين في السوق و بيعملوا trading في السوق
+
+174
+00:13:20,410 --> 00:13:24,610
+بيحاولوا ان هم to rush on understanding the new
+
+175
+00:13:24,610 --> 00:13:28,230
+information and because this information .. this
+
+176
+00:13:28,230 --> 00:13:33,150
+new information has different interpretation يعني
+
+177
+00:13:33,150 --> 00:13:35,970
+حتى المعلومة الواحدة لها different interpretation
+
+178
+00:13:35,970 --> 00:13:41,790
+تفسيرات مختلفة يعني خلينا نحكي مثلا company A want
+
+179
+00:13:41,790 --> 00:13:48,480
+to take over company Bمثلا company A عاملة take
+
+180
+00:13:48,480 --> 00:13:53,060
+over مع company B او
+
+181
+00:13:53,060 --> 00:13:57,340
+بدهم يعملوا merging with company B فيه هيكون الناس
+
+182
+00:13:57,340 --> 00:14:02,620
+مقسمين، الناس هيحكوا okay this is good for company
+
+183
+00:14:02,620 --> 00:14:05,880
+other people say this is bad for company there is
+
+184
+00:14:05,880 --> 00:14:08,240
+no agreement between the investors or market
+
+185
+00:14:08,240 --> 00:14:15,100
+participants whether thisميرج ممكن يدفع إلى مستقبل
+
+186
+00:14:15,100 --> 00:14:19,820
+جيد للشركة أو يدفع إلى مستقبل جيد للشركة، ليس هناك
+
+187
+00:14:19,820 --> 00:14:25,740
+اتفاق، لهذا السبب اتفاق الأسعار بين المستخدمين
+
+188
+00:14:25,740 --> 00:14:30,880
+الأسعار بتعكس هذا الاتفاق، يعني لأن بعض المستخدمين
+
+189
+00:14:30,880 --> 00:14:36,920
+مع الاختلاف، والاخرين ضد الاختلاف،
+
+190
+00:14:41,380 --> 00:14:45,740
+Prices change until expected returns are exactly
+
+191
+00:14:45,740 --> 00:14:51,420
+commensurate with risk الأسعار بتبدأ أو العواقب
+
+192
+00:14:51,420 --> 00:14:56,620
+بتبدأ تتغير حتى يصير في مكافأة بين العقل و المخاطر
+
+193
+00:14:56,620 --> 00:14:58,820
+خلينا نشوف how this works
+
+194
+00:15:03,870 --> 00:15:06,550
+طبعا احنا we are talking in the efficient market
+
+195
+00:15:06,550 --> 00:15:09,590
+hypothesis يعني بنذكركوا بس احنا مركزين على ال
+
+196
+00:15:09,590 --> 00:15:14,370
+efficient market الأسواق المتعملية الكبيرة طبعا
+
+197
+00:15:14,370 --> 00:15:17,050
+الكل بيعرف this chart this is security market line
+
+198
+00:15:17,050 --> 00:15:21,710
+okay some people they call this كده كده ال asset
+
+199
+00:15:21,710 --> 00:15:24,650
+pricing model يعني هذا security market line خط
+
+200
+00:15:24,650 --> 00:15:29,830
+السوق حكينا انه all securities are represented in
+
+201
+00:15:29,830 --> 00:15:32,510
+the security market line securities reflecting the
+
+202
+00:15:32,510 --> 00:15:40,650
+riskand return بتعكس العقد المحاصر okay let's
+
+203
+00:15:40,650 --> 00:15:46,390
+consider this case خلينا ناخد ال case هذه لو جينا
+
+204
+00:15:46,390 --> 00:15:54,870
+احنا company A بدتعمل take over to company C نحكي
+
+205
+00:15:54,870 --> 00:15:59,790
+ان هو هي company A this is company Atake over يعني
+
+206
+00:15:59,790 --> 00:16:05,770
+أنك تسيطر أو تعمل managing مع company C مع company
+
+207
+00:16:05,770 --> 00:16:12,330
+C okay طيب
+
+208
+00:16:12,330 --> 00:16:18,670
+هلأ قبل ال take over really take over قبل ال take
+
+209
+00:16:18,670 --> 00:16:25,030
+over a has this risk and has this return just
+
+210
+00:16:25,030 --> 00:16:31,320
+recap itأيه عند هاي المخاطر وهذا العادى هذا قبل ال
+
+211
+00:16:31,320 --> 00:16:35,520
+declaration or the announcement of the takeover
+
+212
+00:16:35,520 --> 00:16:40,900
+قبل ما هم يعملوا قبل السيطرة الوطنية now today for
+
+213
+00:16:40,900 --> 00:16:45,680
+instance they may announce on the takeover
+
+214
+00:16:45,680 --> 00:16:50,280
+decision اليوم أعلنوا عن ال takeover decision what
+
+215
+00:16:50,280 --> 00:16:53,460
+is going indeed we have a new information لدينا
+
+216
+00:16:53,460 --> 00:16:56,340
+معلومات جديدة okay
+
+217
+00:17:01,090 --> 00:17:05,130
+so because we have a new information it means we
+
+218
+00:17:05,130 --> 00:17:08,670
+adding up to the company a new risk احنا ضفنا
+
+219
+00:17:08,670 --> 00:17:14,210
+مخاطر جديدة okay so the risk is moving from this
+
+220
+00:17:14,210 --> 00:17:20,510
+point to this point so
+
+221
+00:17:20,510 --> 00:17:21,310
+in this case
+
+222
+00:17:25,740 --> 00:17:29,020
+and because there is increase in risk لأنه في
+
+223
+00:17:29,020 --> 00:17:33,560
+زيادة في المخاطر so the market is commensurate the
+
+224
+00:17:33,560 --> 00:17:40,980
+risk or compensate the risk بكافئ المخاطر يعني
+
+225
+00:17:40,980 --> 00:17:45,320
+لأنه في المخاطر زيادة أكيد حسيب فينا العوائد حتزيب
+
+226
+00:17:50,990 --> 00:17:55,410
+so in this case the return increase so because the
+
+227
+00:17:55,410 --> 00:18:01,170
+increase in risk there is increase in return لأنه
+
+228
+00:18:01,170 --> 00:18:07,170
+زادت المخاطر زادت العقد ليش زادت المخاطر because
+
+229
+00:18:07,170 --> 00:18:11,750
+of the new information why the new information
+
+230
+00:18:11,750 --> 00:18:14,650
+because this new information is unpredictable
+
+231
+00:18:17,710 --> 00:18:21,570
+yes and because it is unpredictable it is
+
+232
+00:18:21,570 --> 00:18:25,490
+uncertain uncertain
+
+233
+00:18:25,490 --> 00:18:29,910
+يعني مش مؤكدة what is the implications of this new
+
+234
+00:18:29,910 --> 00:18:33,290
+information on the price لان احنا مابنعرفش شو
+
+235
+00:18:33,290 --> 00:18:36,430
+بتأثر هذه المعلومات على ال price because the
+
+236
+00:18:36,430 --> 00:18:39,230
+market is because the market follows the random
+
+237
+00:18:39,230 --> 00:18:49,220
+walkلأنه الطريقة عشوائية لأن
+
+238
+00:18:49,220 --> 00:18:51,660
+ال efficient market is efficient لازم يكافئ الناس
+
+239
+00:18:51,660 --> 00:18:54,700
+انه there is a new information it means there is a
+
+240
+00:18:54,700 --> 00:18:58,380
+new risk and because there is a new risk as you
+
+241
+00:18:58,380 --> 00:19:03,200
+see in this in the chart it should be a new return
+
+242
+00:19:03,200 --> 00:19:08,280
+so in this case as you observe here A will move
+
+243
+00:19:08,280 --> 00:19:11,670
+from this pointعلى هذا النقطة.
+
+244
+00:19:14,390 --> 00:19:21,770
+لذلك الآن A في الأكتر لديه أكتر فرصة و أكتر عودة.
+
+245
+00:19:23,970 --> 00:19:31,050
+حسنا؟ لأن المعلومات الجديدة. إذا كانت السوق غير
+
+246
+00:19:31,050 --> 00:19:35,650
+إيجابي، كون حذرا هنا، لأنني الآن أتكلم عن سوقين
+
+247
+00:19:35,650 --> 00:19:42,240
+إيجابي. إذا كان السوق غير إيجابي،أين السعر أو أين
+
+248
+00:19:42,240 --> 00:19:49,200
+حركته؟ ربما في الأسفل ربما في الأعلى. فالأسفل يعني
+
+249
+00:19:49,200 --> 00:19:53,400
+أنه يوجد تغيير في السعر لأننا نعمل في عاملات
+
+250
+00:19:53,400 --> 00:19:58,000
+إيفيشنت ماركت وماركت بإيفيشنت تتعامل مع الرغب
+
+251
+00:19:58,000 --> 00:20:02,100
+والعادة. لكن في عاملات إيفيشنت ماركت يمكننا أن
+
+252
+00:20:02,100 --> 00:20:09,090
+نلاقيwe may observe ممكن احنا نلاحظ the A is going
+
+253
+00:20:09,090 --> 00:20:14,150
+down or going up so in this case the prices is
+
+254
+00:20:14,150 --> 00:20:17,810
+inefficient عشان هيك الأسعار بتكون is inefficient
+
+255
+00:20:17,810 --> 00:20:24,490
+غير كفوة efficient market it means all of the
+
+256
+00:20:24,490 --> 00:20:29,210
+securities must located on the lineال efficient
+
+257
+00:20:29,210 --> 00:20:33,010
+market بتحكي إنه لازم كل ال securities كل الأوراق
+
+258
+00:20:33,010 --> 00:20:37,510
+المالية تقع على على خط السوق reflecting the risk
+
+259
+00:20:37,510 --> 00:20:45,470
+and return واحنا حكينا مثال في ناس مثلا هنا بغزا
+
+260
+00:20:45,470 --> 00:20:51,990
+هان بدهم يتاجروا مثلا بالألفاق فبدهم يدفعوا مثلا
+
+261
+00:20:51,990 --> 00:20:57,860
+مية دولار و لا مية ألف دولار و بدهوش يخسرفبنحكيلهم
+
+262
+00:20:57,860 --> 00:21:00,960
+هذا this is a stupidity to tell this من الغباء
+
+263
+00:21:00,960 --> 00:21:04,080
+نحكيه بكلام هذا because if you want to invest in
+
+264
+00:21:04,080 --> 00:21:08,700
+high risk investments you .. you have to accept
+
+265
+00:21:08,700 --> 00:21:14,640
+risk and هدول الناس بعدين لما ييجيوا بالوطن
+
+266
+00:21:14,640 --> 00:21:18,760
+ويقولوا لك اه وش صار وش جرى واحنا نصبوا علينا
+
+267
+00:21:18,760 --> 00:21:21,700
+ويقولوا لأ مانصبوش عليك انت because you accept
+
+268
+00:21:21,700 --> 00:21:26,200
+riskyou accept this return you have to accept the
+
+269
+00:21:26,200 --> 00:21:32,240
+rest يعني ان انت بدك عائد عالي okay بدك تعمل مخاطر
+
+270
+00:21:32,240 --> 00:21:36,300
+عالية مش ان انت تستثمر و لما مثلا ينهدم النفق و لا
+
+271
+00:21:36,300 --> 00:21:40,780
+كذا تصيح و انا ماليش و انا بترشو okay هذا كلام
+
+272
+00:21:40,780 --> 00:21:45,680
+okay so this is the investment هذا ال investment
+
+273
+00:21:45,680 --> 00:21:51,520
+مستحيل ان احنا نيجي نستثمر بشغل عائد عالي و مافيش
+
+274
+00:21:51,520 --> 00:21:55,730
+فيها مخاطر او مخاطرها متخفضةthere is no way if we
+
+275
+00:21:55,730 --> 00:22:00,470
+have this if we have this it means the market is
+
+276
+00:22:00,470 --> 00:22:04,750
+inefficient اذا احنا عند الكلام هذا انه عندنا
+
+277
+00:22:04,750 --> 00:22:09,950
+مخاطر عالية و عائد عالي و مخاطر مخفضة معناه الكلام
+
+278
+00:22:09,950 --> 00:22:18,310
+market is inefficient خلينا
+
+279
+00:22:18,310 --> 00:22:25,690
+نشوف لو احنا موجودين هناتبقوا عالي لو احنا موجودين
+
+280
+00:22:25,690 --> 00:22:30,990
+هنا ايش بقى الكلام هذا ال risk المفروض يكون له هذا
+
+281
+00:22:30,990 --> 00:22:36,470
+العائد يعني هذا ال risk لو احنا كملنا لازم العائد
+
+282
+00:22:36,470 --> 00:22:46,870
+سببه هذا يكون احنا بناخد مخاطر منخفضة مع عائد عالي
+
+283
+00:22:46,870 --> 00:22:49,230
+المفروض هذه المخاطر تكون عائدها بهذا الشكل
+
+284
+00:22:52,120 --> 00:22:58,220
+نفس الشغل هان نتحمل احنا ناخد عائد عالي عند نفس
+
+285
+00:22:58,220 --> 00:23:02,320
+نقطة مخاطر فلازم هذا ينجي على الخط هذا و هذا يرتفع
+
+286
+00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:05,360
+على الخط طبعا هذا بيسموه under price و هذا بيسميه
+
+287
+00:23:05,360 --> 00:23:11,340
+over price طيب الناس
+
+288
+00:23:11,340 --> 00:23:16,120
+بيعطيني معلومات جديدة السوق الكافة لو كان معلومات
+
+289
+00:23:16,120 --> 00:23:20,380
+جديدة فيه و هذه المعلومات المفروض تكون
+
+290
+00:23:20,380 --> 00:23:25,880
+unpredictableفاهموا علي المعلومات أولا لازم تكون
+
+291
+00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:30,060
+unpredictable because it is unpredictable the
+
+292
+00:23:30,060 --> 00:23:34,640
+price will end unpredictable too لأن المعلومات غير
+
+293
+00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:39,620
+متوقعة كمان بيصير ال price سلوك الأسعار غير متوقع
+
+294
+00:23:39,620 --> 00:23:44,900
+طيب لأنه عايشين في حالة .. حالة ال uncertainty
+
+295
+00:23:44,900 --> 00:23:52,220
+عالم التأكد يعني مش متوقعين so we face up a higher
+
+296
+00:23:52,220 --> 00:23:58,360
+riskبنواجه مخاطر عالية because of this high risk
+
+297
+00:23:58,360 --> 00:24:04,060
+the market compensate us by higher return والسوق
+
+298
+00:24:04,060 --> 00:24:09,640
+بيكافئنا بإيش بأعلى لإنه اتحملنا مخاطر أكتر okay
+
+299
+00:24:09,640 --> 00:24:15,760
+so where is the wrong then؟ وين كان الغلط؟ فضلي لا
+
+300
+00:24:15,760 --> 00:24:20,620
+السؤال مفهوش inefficient
+
+301
+00:24:20,620 --> 00:24:23,180
+inefficient يعني غير كفو
+
+302
+00:24:29,160 --> 00:24:35,200
+Okay يعني اللخص الكلام اللي حكيناه حكينا انه ال ..
+
+303
+00:24:35,200 --> 00:24:37,620
+في ال .. في ال efficient markets في السوق المالي
+
+304
+00:24:37,620 --> 00:24:42,100
+الكفو the prices follow a random walk الأسعار تمشي
+
+305
+00:24:42,100 --> 00:24:47,670
+بطريقة عشوائيةبغض النظر مين اللي عنده معلومات سواء
+
+306
+00:24:47,670 --> 00:24:49,610
+كان معلومات private information ولا public
+
+307
+00:24:49,610 --> 00:24:52,550
+information are the same حتى اللي عندهم private
+
+308
+00:24:52,550 --> 00:24:55,310
+information no longer use this information بيقدروش
+
+309
+00:24:55,310 --> 00:24:58,530
+يستخدموا هذه المعلومات okay because the market is
+
+310
+00:24:58,530 --> 00:25:04,950
+efficient لأن ال market is efficientال market نفسه
+
+311
+00:25:04,950 --> 00:25:08,750
+لما بيصير ان معلومات جديدة في مخاطر جديدة وبالتالي
+
+312
+00:25:08,750 --> 00:25:13,630
+هو بي .. بي .. بيعوض الناس بعائد أعلى بسبب المخاطر
+
+313
+00:25:13,630 --> 00:25:17,690
+الجديدة اللي متحملة إذا كان السوق المالي غير كفوء
+
+314
+00:25:17,690 --> 00:25:25,400
+السوق المالي غير كفوء ممكن نتنبأ بأسعارOkay ممكن و
+
+315
+00:25:25,400 --> 00:25:28,380
+كمان السوق مش هيكون في a trade-off between the
+
+316
+00:25:28,380 --> 00:25:31,800
+resting and return و السوق مش هيكون فيه مكافأة بين
+
+317
+00:25:31,800 --> 00:25:34,860
+العائد و المخاطر فهيكون في عندي شغلة اسمها miss
+
+318
+00:25:34,860 --> 00:25:39,100
+pricing اللي هو خطأ في التسعير و كمان في ال
+
+319
+00:25:39,100 --> 00:25:42,140
+inefficient market في الأسواق المالية الغير كفوقة
+
+320
+00:25:42,140 --> 00:25:48,980
+الأسعار لا تعكس كل المعلومات okay لا تعكس كل
+
+321
+00:25:48,980 --> 00:25:51,740
+المعلومات okay
+
+322
+00:25:53,920 --> 00:25:58,920
+نطلع على الشكل اللي موجود هنا look at this chart
+
+323
+00:25:58,920 --> 00:26:04,960
+this chart هاي دراسة انعملت في ال 81 انعملت على
+
+324
+00:26:04,960 --> 00:26:13,300
+شركات صار فيها take over طبعا اطلعوا على الشكل هيك
+
+325
+00:26:13,300 --> 00:26:17,240
+و ركزولي في الشكل خدوا يعني الدقيقة تشوفوا الشكل
+
+326
+00:26:20,800 --> 00:26:26,900
+طلعوا في الشكل اللي هيك بعين ناقضة يعني try to
+
+327
+00:26:26,900 --> 00:26:44,220
+criticize this chart okay
+
+328
+00:26:44,220 --> 00:26:50,070
+طيب في حد في عنده comments ع الشكلالبنات بالورا؟
+
+329
+00:26:50,070 --> 00:26:56,750
+في حد عنده comments على الشكل؟ رأي خليني أشوف مين
+
+330
+00:26:56,750 --> 00:27:03,830
+بالورا؟ بنات؟ في عندكوا رأي في الشكل؟
+
+331
+00:27:03,830 --> 00:27:10,890
+البنات الجانب هذا طلعوا الشكل واضح حلو
+
+332
+00:27:10,890 --> 00:27:15,650
+الشكل ماهناعرفين حلو الشكل بس what it means إيش
+
+333
+00:27:15,650 --> 00:27:25,620
+معنى الشكل؟أه خليني أشوف ايش الشكل يعني وين
+
+334
+00:27:25,620 --> 00:27:32,340
+المحاطرة شوف انت قرأت ايش مكتوب هاي
+
+335
+00:27:32,340 --> 00:27:34,700
+ال abnormal return هي ال abnormal return هي الحتة
+
+336
+00:27:34,700 --> 00:27:39,400
+هذه اه هي الحتة دي abnormal return before takeover
+
+337
+00:27:39,400 --> 00:27:42,460
+attempts target companies هذي ماخدين احنا طلع
+
+338
+00:27:42,460 --> 00:27:47,080
+فاطمة عندك اتفضلي احكيلي اشوف
+
+339
+00:27:51,470 --> 00:27:58,590
+where is company number one hand
+
+340
+00:27:58,590 --> 00:28:05,050
+days hand days okay ال
+
+341
+00:28:05,050 --> 00:28:11,230
+up normal it meansOkay عنا الأيام هال 135 سنة و
+
+342
+00:28:11,230 --> 00:28:14,750
+125 سنة ايش يعني سالب؟ ايش يعني سالب؟ قبل ال take
+
+343
+00:28:14,750 --> 00:28:17,590
+over قبل ال take over يعني السفر ايش بتوعه؟ هي
+
+344
+00:28:17,590 --> 00:28:20,310
+يعني ال take over هي the day of the announcement
+
+345
+00:28:20,310 --> 00:28:23,470
+of take over تبوا يا ابنات يعني انا ممكن في ال
+
+346
+00:28:23,470 --> 00:28:27,050
+exam اجيبلكم شغل زي هاي explain what the chart
+
+347
+00:28:27,050 --> 00:28:33,070
+means ايش بتعني ال chart؟طبعا السفر هو ال
+
+348
+00:28:33,070 --> 00:28:38,170
+announcement day السفر هو يوم ما تم الاعلان عن ال
+
+349
+00:28:38,170 --> 00:28:41,950
+take over قبل كان هنا انهيار الشركة انهيار مات
+
+350
+00:28:41,950 --> 00:28:46,050
+انهارت الشركة؟ قبل ال service متأكدة أنتي؟ نعم
+
+351
+00:28:46,050 --> 00:28:50,210
+العواقب هنا قبل السفر يعني ماصارت بعد ما ساعدنا
+
+352
+00:28:50,210 --> 00:28:53,210
+اللي هو السيطرة على الشركة صارت العواقب كتير عالية
+
+353
+00:28:53,210 --> 00:28:57,810
+مين بحكي غير هيك؟ تشوف فضل
+
+354
+00:28:59,690 --> 00:29:03,610
+طبعا هي مش شركة واحدة هي مجموعة شركة تعملها take
+
+355
+00:29:03,610 --> 00:29:10,750
+over احنا
+
+356
+00:29:10,750 --> 00:29:12,810
+ماحكيناش عن miss price احنا حكينا بس عن ال
+
+357
+00:29:12,810 --> 00:29:16,110
+abnormal return حسبنا ال abnormal return لكل شركة
+
+358
+00:29:16,110 --> 00:29:22,710
+طيب في حد عنده شغلانة وخرن فضل
+
+359
+00:29:22,710 --> 00:29:26,290
+يا بنات اسمه اهان اسمه اهان
+
+360
+00:29:29,650 --> 00:29:34,210
+Okay في فجوة صح كلامك إيش هذا نسميه؟ في فجوة لأ
+
+361
+00:29:34,210 --> 00:29:40,790
+هذا اسمه jump صار قفزة jump و هذه jump why there
+
+362
+00:29:40,790 --> 00:29:46,650
+is jump؟ this is unpredictable غير متنبأ فيه طيب
+
+363
+00:29:46,650 --> 00:29:55,690
+خليني بس نطلع أهم لو احنا طلعنا باليوم ال 30 يعني
+
+364
+00:29:55,690 --> 00:30:00,420
+30 يوم قبل ال .. قبل ال take overكان ال abnormal
+
+365
+00:30:00,420 --> 00:30:07,360
+retain بال minus okay كان بال minus يعني لو احنا
+
+366
+00:30:07,360 --> 00:30:12,060
+أخدنا المنطقة هذه abnormal retain كان هنا بعدين
+
+367
+00:30:12,060 --> 00:30:20,560
+زاد طيب هلأ نطلع شوي شوي بدأ يزيد زي ما انتوا
+
+368
+00:30:20,560 --> 00:30:26,750
+شايفينطب لعند يوم السفر يوم الإعلان طب مانا اتكلم
+
+369
+00:30:26,750 --> 00:30:30,550
+بيوم السفر قبل يوم السفر في كان ناس تعرف انه there
+
+370
+00:30:30,550 --> 00:30:37,870
+is .. it was a take over مين هم هدول الناس؟ مين
+
+371
+00:30:37,870 --> 00:30:42,350
+هم؟ اعطوني مين هم اللي كان يعرفوا فيه صار leak لل
+
+372
+00:30:42,350 --> 00:30:48,690
+information leak يعني تسرب لمعلومات مين هم ال ..
+
+373
+00:30:48,690 --> 00:30:53,050
+مصاحب مين؟شرحناهم ال board of directors و ال
+
+374
+00:30:53,050 --> 00:30:55,690
+executives و في ناس كمان غيرهم من خارج الشركة
+
+375
+00:30:55,690 --> 00:31:01,910
+بيعرفوا من هما ال specialist ال specialist اللي
+
+376
+00:31:01,910 --> 00:31:06,270
+صار leak لل information صار
+
+377
+00:31:06,270 --> 00:31:11,700
+فيه زيادة في ال abnormal returnتمام؟ لما وصلت لعند
+
+378
+00:31:11,700 --> 00:31:16,300
+هذا الحد أثر .. أثر ال insiders طبعا هذا عند .. في
+
+379
+00:31:16,300 --> 00:31:19,280
+سنة الواحد تمانية اتنية و تمانية كان هذا الشغل بعد
+
+380
+00:31:19,280 --> 00:31:22,620
+هيك صار يمنعوا ال insiders to trade on the private
+
+381
+00:31:22,620 --> 00:31:25,380
+information صار يمنعوهم يتاجروا في المعلومات
+
+382
+00:31:25,380 --> 00:31:29,180
+الخاصة ممنوع يشتري و يبيعوا في الشركة صار عندهم ..
+
+383
+00:31:29,180 --> 00:31:31,980
+صار في معلومات هلأ صار في jump
+
+384
+00:31:38,150 --> 00:31:42,330
+فجأة jumped لما .. مجرد ما طلع الرجال و حكى we
+
+385
+00:31:42,330 --> 00:31:49,470
+announce that the for instance IBM merged with for
+
+386
+00:31:49,470 --> 00:31:53,110
+instance General Motors مجرد ما حكى الكلمة هذه
+
+387
+00:31:53,110 --> 00:31:57,690
+مباشرة ال .. ال .. ال abnormal ارتفع من من مقطة
+
+388
+00:31:57,690 --> 00:32:02,670
+إلى أخرى فجأة أول شيء ال announcement ماحدش
+
+389
+00:32:02,670 --> 00:32:07,530
+بتتوقعهيعني الإعلان ماحدش توقعه يعني هذه المعلومات
+
+390
+00:32:07,530 --> 00:32:11,130
+الجديدة ماحدش توقعها في السوق تاني شيء ماحدش توقع
+
+391
+00:32:11,130 --> 00:32:16,890
+أنه الأسعار أو ال return هترتفع بهذا الشكل okay
+
+392
+00:32:16,890 --> 00:32:19,810
+اللقاء الجاي بنكمل هذا الموضوع
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/I8IuYgx9A7c_postprocess.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/I8IuYgx9A7c_postprocess.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..24475a63811f29103a6629c62bd4f5d858124ddc
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/I8IuYgx9A7c_postprocess.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1308 @@
+1
+00:00:20,650 --> 00:00:25,490
+بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم بال .. بالمحاضرة الفاتة كنا
+
+2
+00:00:25,490 --> 00:00:31,190
+نحكي عن ال factors اللي بتأثر على أسعار الفوائد
+
+3
+00:00:31,190 --> 00:00:39,570
+okay؟ و بس أنه احنا بس نذكركم أن ال .. ال R ال ..
+
+4
+00:00:39,570 --> 00:00:44,570
+ال .. ال R nominal بتتأثر بال inflation و بتتأثر
+
+5
+00:00:44,570 --> 00:00:50,090
+بال taxation و بتتأثر بال holding periodOkay هذا
+
+6
+00:00:50,090 --> 00:00:55,050
+المرة الفاتحة حكينا فيه قولنا ال inflation when
+
+7
+00:00:55,050 --> 00:01:01,250
+inflation increase R increase increase and when
+
+8
+00:01:01,250 --> 00:01:07,670
+tax increase the R also the R should decrease I
+
+9
+00:01:07,670 --> 00:01:11,730
+mean the R after tax the holding period
+
+10
+00:01:16,300 --> 00:01:19,280
+when the holding period increase, r should
+
+11
+00:01:19,280 --> 00:01:24,000
+increase يعني إذا كانت الفترة الزمنية طويلة زي ما
+
+12
+00:01:24,000 --> 00:01:28,560
+احنا شوفنا كل ما كان العقد أو الفائدة أعلى وكل ما
+
+13
+00:01:28,560 --> 00:01:31,160
+كان ال inflation عالي كل ما كان ال r أعلى هذا
+
+14
+00:01:31,160 --> 00:01:40,360
+الكلام اللي احنا حكينا فيه طيب كنا
+
+15
+00:01:40,360 --> 00:01:42,580
+احنا نحكي بال real interest rate
+
+16
+00:01:46,250 --> 00:01:49,150
+حنشوف طريقة احتساب ال real interest rate if we
+
+17
+00:01:49,150 --> 00:01:52,230
+invest less than one year and if we invest more
+
+18
+00:01:52,230 --> 00:01:55,590
+than one year يعني إذا إحنا بنستثمر بأقل من سنة أو
+
+19
+00:01:55,590 --> 00:02:01,150
+إذا بنستثمر أكتر من سنة okay effective
+
+20
+00:02:01,150 --> 00:02:05,350
+annual annual معناها سنوي effective annual return
+
+21
+00:02:05,350 --> 00:02:09,690
+يعني إذا كانت إحنا بناخد عائد سنة سنة أو أقل
+
+22
+00:02:11,090 --> 00:02:13,690
+percentage increase in fund invested over a one
+
+23
+00:02:13,690 --> 00:02:17,770
+year horizon معناه كده انه كل ما احنا بنعيد ..
+
+24
+00:02:17,770 --> 00:02:20,230
+بنزيد عدد سنوات الاستثمار كل ما ال interest rate
+
+25
+00:02:20,230 --> 00:02:24,790
+بتزيد هذا كنا متفقين عليه زمان او ال .. the last
+
+26
+00:02:24,790 --> 00:02:29,250
+meeting effective annual return هذا is stand for
+
+27
+00:02:29,250 --> 00:02:34,030
+effective annual return percentage increase يعني
+
+28
+00:02:34,030 --> 00:02:37,860
+كل ما زادت الفائدةin funds invested over a one
+
+29
+00:02:37,860 --> 00:02:41,320
+year horizon كل ما بيزيد الفترة الزمنية كل ما
+
+30
+00:02:41,320 --> 00:02:45,360
+بيزيد العائد اللي احنا بدنايه and I give you
+
+31
+00:02:45,360 --> 00:02:49,340
+example last meeting Bonn Bank of Palestine or the
+
+32
+00:02:49,340 --> 00:02:53,870
+Islamic Bank give you مرابحة for one yearhe may
+
+33
+00:02:53,870 --> 00:02:56,790
+take .. the bank of .. the Islamic bank may take
+
+34
+00:02:56,790 --> 00:03:00,890
+six percent if for two years nine percent if for
+
+35
+00:03:00,890 --> 00:03:06,190
+three years maybe twelve percent so the .. the
+
+36
+00:03:06,190 --> 00:03:08,850
+interest rate is a positive function with the time
+
+37
+00:03:08,850 --> 00:03:12,050
+horizon يعني أسعار الفائدة هي positive function
+
+38
+00:03:12,050 --> 00:03:16,530
+يعني إلها علاقة إيجابية ب .. بأسعار الفوائد يعني
+
+39
+00:03:16,530 --> 00:03:19,170
+كل ما .. أسعار الفوائد .. كل ما الفترات الزمنية
+
+40
+00:03:19,170 --> 00:03:22,780
+زادت كل ما سعر الفائدة بزيدطيب how we calculate
+
+41
+00:03:22,780 --> 00:03:25,240
+the effective annual return؟ كيف نحسب ال effective
+
+42
+00:03:25,240 --> 00:03:29,000
+annual return؟ to calculate the effective annual
+
+43
+00:03:29,000 --> 00:03:32,320
+return one plus effective annual return is equal
+
+44
+00:03:32,320 --> 00:03:38,380
+one plus risk free time .. time for instance how
+
+45
+00:03:38,380 --> 00:03:42,240
+many times per year because we have two equations
+
+46
+00:03:42,240 --> 00:03:46,060
+this equations if we invest less than one year إذا
+
+47
+00:03:46,060 --> 00:03:50,310
+أحنا بنستثمر بأقل من سنةإذا احنا بنستثمر for
+
+48
+00:03:50,310 --> 00:03:57,890
+instance less than one year نستثمر أخر من سنة so
+
+49
+00:03:57,890 --> 00:04:03,750
+it is equal one plus r the risk free or any r over
+
+50
+00:04:03,750 --> 00:04:12,270
+one divided by T for instance ع سبيل مثل if we
+
+51
+00:04:12,270 --> 00:04:18,080
+investfor only three months اذا احنا بنعمل استثمار
+
+52
+00:04:18,080 --> 00:04:23,480
+لتلات شهور only three months
+
+53
+00:04:23,480 --> 00:04:29,780
+اذا احنا بنستثمر لتلات شهور you
+
+54
+00:04:29,780 --> 00:04:32,300
+ask yourself how many times the interest rate is
+
+55
+00:04:32,300 --> 00:04:37,060
+calculated in a year كم مرة بتنحسب أسعار الفائدة
+
+56
+00:04:37,060 --> 00:04:40,980
+يعني اذا احنا بنحسبها تلات شهور من جولها اللي هو
+
+57
+00:04:40,980 --> 00:04:47,050
+تلاتة عاطم عاشرال T ثلاثة على اتناش طب لو احنا
+
+58
+00:04:47,050 --> 00:04:54,190
+نحسبها two weeks اسبوعين يعني أخدنا مرابح لمدة
+
+59
+00:04:54,190 --> 00:04:58,870
+اسبوعين دائما
+
+60
+00:04:58,870 --> 00:05:03,730
+المخصوم و المخصوم عليه لازم يكونوا متشابهين يعني
+
+61
+00:05:03,730 --> 00:05:08,930
+مانفعش اقول اتنين على اتناش مانفع لان اتنين بتصير
+
+62
+00:05:08,930 --> 00:05:16,480
+شهرين طب اسبوعينع السنة بدنا نحسبها كام؟ اتنين و
+
+63
+00:05:16,480 --> 00:05:23,600
+خمسين انتبهوا يعني ال week السنة
+
+64
+00:05:23,600 --> 00:05:28,680
+ال year is equal fifty two week or fifty two weeks
+
+65
+00:05:28,680 --> 00:05:34,700
+ال year بتساوي twelve months معروف هذا الكلام okay
+
+66
+00:05:35,740 --> 00:05:40,720
+ال year بتساوي three six five days و some people
+
+67
+00:05:40,720 --> 00:05:44,880
+ممكن يعملوا three sixty يعني على تلت مية و خمس و
+
+68
+00:05:44,880 --> 00:05:49,940
+ستين ولا تلت مية و ستين واحد three sixty إذا احنا
+
+69
+00:05:49,940 --> 00:05:54,380
+أخدنا weekly أخدنا monthly أخدنا daily ممكن يكون
+
+70
+00:05:54,380 --> 00:06:00,580
+ال year نحسبها quarterly أكم quarter في السنة four
+
+71
+00:06:00,580 --> 00:06:06,300
+four quarterاربع .. اربع سنهار طيب هلو لو احنا
+
+72
+00:06:06,300 --> 00:06:14,240
+أخدنا مثال for instance if R is twelve percent R
+
+73
+00:06:14,240 --> 00:06:18,980
+is twelve percent R
+
+74
+00:06:18,980 --> 00:06:29,760
+is twelve percent and T is three months وال T تلت
+
+75
+00:06:29,760 --> 00:06:35,850
+.. تلت شهوريعني احنا if we get for instance مرابحة
+
+76
+00:06:35,850 --> 00:06:41,350
+if we get مرابحة for three months and يعني اذا
+
+77
+00:06:41,350 --> 00:06:45,690
+أخدنا مرابحة for three months and the interest or
+
+78
+00:06:45,690 --> 00:06:52,930
+the مرابحة rate is twelve percent a year calculate
+
+79
+00:06:52,930 --> 00:06:55,550
+the effective annual return ده نحسب ال effective
+
+80
+00:06:55,550 --> 00:07:01,410
+annual return okayال effective annual return له
+
+81
+00:07:01,410 --> 00:07:06,870
+هذا المعنى is equal واحد plus أربعاش في المية طيب
+
+82
+00:07:06,870 --> 00:07:10,610
+هل أتمعاش في المية هذه a year أتمعاش في المية
+
+83
+00:07:10,610 --> 00:07:15,890
+بالسنة لازم نعملها ايش بال .. احنا عندنا تلات شهور
+
+84
+00:07:15,890 --> 00:07:20,930
+وبالتالي نوحدها على كام نقسمها أتمعاش okay لأنه
+
+85
+00:07:20,930 --> 00:07:28,680
+شايفين R F في T okayone divided قداش او اللي هو ان
+
+86
+00:07:28,680 --> 00:07:38,460
+اكم شهر حنستثمرها تلاتة على اتناش okay فبتصير
+
+87
+00:07:38,460 --> 00:07:44,100
+اتناش في المية ع اتناش بتطلع one point oh one over
+
+88
+00:07:44,100 --> 00:07:50,560
+تلاتة ع اتناش تلاتة واحد ع تلاتة اربعةيعني بيطلع
+
+89
+00:07:50,560 --> 00:07:54,160
+عنكم الجواب بهذا الشكل طبعا انكم بالقلعة الحاسفة
+
+90
+00:07:54,160 --> 00:08:01,340
+بتحسبوها؟ في حد ماعرفش استخدم القلعة الحاسفة؟
+
+91
+00:08:01,340 --> 00:08:06,900
+وين القلعة الحاسفة يا عزيزي؟ احسبولي كام تطلع شوف
+
+92
+00:08:16,460 --> 00:08:21,040
+12% ع 12
+
+93
+00:08:21,040 --> 00:08:25,340
+تطلع 1% مظبوط؟
+
+94
+00:08:25,340 --> 00:08:34,080
+1% و 1 و 1 و 1% مظبوط؟ طب اه ال time ما هو هاي ال
+
+95
+00:08:34,080 --> 00:08:37,680
+time ال time اللي هو ال risk free as a function in
+
+96
+00:08:37,680 --> 00:08:42,520
+time يعني ال risk free كمعرفة بالناحية الزمن يعني
+
+97
+00:08:42,520 --> 00:08:48,240
+12% احنا بالسنة طب الشهر كام؟عشان نوحد المقامات
+
+98
+00:08:48,240 --> 00:08:54,880
+فبتطلع بالشهر اللي هو عندك واحد تمانية في أستراتع
+
+99
+00:08:54,880 --> 00:08:59,360
+اتناشت كده بتطلع one
+
+100
+00:08:59,360 --> 00:09:03,600
+point zero zero two طبعا بتجيب الواحد بتصير zero
+
+101
+00:09:03,600 --> 00:09:04,660
+zero two
+
+102
+00:09:09,300 --> 00:09:16,680
+إذا كلامك صحيح كام بتطلع؟ حطيها
+
+103
+00:09:16,680 --> 00:09:26,240
+بور تلاتة ع اتناش اه قص ربع كام تطلع؟ طيب okay
+
+104
+00:09:26,240 --> 00:09:30,160
+ناخد
+
+105
+00:09:30,160 --> 00:09:33,160
+مثال تاني عشان تفهموه أكتر ناخد مثال تاني okay
+
+106
+00:09:33,160 --> 00:09:36,460
+مثال
+
+107
+00:09:36,460 --> 00:09:37,880
+تاني خدوا another example
+
+108
+00:09:42,560 --> 00:09:47,720
+ناخد مثال تاني if you take for instance a loan
+
+109
+00:09:47,720 --> 00:09:52,300
+from bank of Palestine, loan from bank of
+
+110
+00:09:52,300 --> 00:09:59,360
+Palestine for nine months لتسعة
+
+111
+00:09:59,360 --> 00:10:03,540
+شهور and the annual interest
+
+112
+00:10:11,260 --> 00:10:21,280
+is fifteen percent what is the what is effective
+
+113
+00:10:21,280 --> 00:10:29,120
+annual return طيب نحسن effective
+
+114
+00:10:29,120 --> 00:10:35,600
+annual return سهل one plus 15% لأن شهرية بنحولها
+
+115
+00:10:35,600 --> 00:10:40,800
+شهرية يصيب على 12Okay over تسعة على اتماش that's
+
+116
+00:10:40,800 --> 00:10:44,720
+it شوفوا كده هتاخد معاكم بالحال ثانية two seconds
+
+117
+00:10:44,720 --> 00:10:48,880
+نضربهم في عشرة هتكون عشرين ثانية يعني نضرب انه
+
+118
+00:10:48,880 --> 00:10:53,540
+الفرق بين المدرس للطالب عشر مرات يعني نعتبر
+
+119
+00:10:53,540 --> 00:10:58,560
+ثانيتين في عشرة اضربهم في عشرين اربعين ثانية يعني
+
+120
+00:10:58,560 --> 00:11:02,540
+it doesn't take that much time لكن المشكلة وين
+
+121
+00:11:02,540 --> 00:11:08,260
+المشكلة you practice this only on your examيعني
+
+122
+00:11:08,260 --> 00:11:11,060
+انتوا بت .. بتروح بتحلوا الأسئلة بس في الامتحان
+
+123
+00:11:11,060 --> 00:11:14,080
+تمام؟
+
+124
+00:11:14,080 --> 00:11:19,000
+عشان احنا نحل مسائل زي هيك حلوا السؤال أول مرة و
+
+125
+00:11:19,000 --> 00:11:21,760
+رغم ان انتوا فاهمين روح حلوه كمان مرة ليش احنا ..
+
+126
+00:11:21,760 --> 00:11:25,280
+ايش بنا نهدف؟ نهدف انه كل ما نحله كمان مرة كل ما
+
+127
+00:11:25,280 --> 00:11:29,710
+نخفض الزمن اللي محتاجينه عشان نحل السؤالاحنا
+
+128
+00:11:29,710 --> 00:11:32,090
+متأكدين you understand this ان انتوا فاهمين كلام
+
+129
+00:11:32,090 --> 00:11:35,030
+هذا مافيش مشكلة عندنا لكن المشكلة هو يعني when you
+
+130
+00:11:35,030 --> 00:11:37,530
+.. you are using your calculator it takes time
+
+131
+00:11:37,530 --> 00:11:40,070
+because you don't have that experience in dealing
+
+132
+00:11:40,070 --> 00:11:43,830
+with the calculator so in order to overcome this
+
+133
+00:11:43,830 --> 00:11:47,790
+problem you have to practice how to use the
+
+134
+00:11:47,790 --> 00:11:51,710
+calculator لأنه انا ب .. ب .. لما كنت ألف ع الطلاب
+
+135
+00:11:51,710 --> 00:11:55,170
+و الطالبات في الامتحان كان the majority of them
+
+136
+00:11:55,170 --> 00:11:59,990
+are struggling in using their calculatorsلما
+
+137
+00:11:59,990 --> 00:12:03,370
+أغلبهم كانوا and they are they lost their time
+
+138
+00:12:03,370 --> 00:12:08,710
+because of this لأنه ضيع واجد عشان بس خاطر انه how
+
+139
+00:12:08,710 --> 00:12:12,470
+to use the calculator so be careful on this point
+
+140
+00:12:12,470 --> 00:12:16,810
+zero zero nine طب بعد ما نجيب الواحد اه بعد ما
+
+141
+00:12:16,810 --> 00:12:21,270
+نجيب الواحد okay so
+
+142
+00:12:21,270 --> 00:12:23,730
+this is the effective annual return okay
+
+143
+00:12:29,420 --> 00:12:32,940
+إيش المفهوم العملي؟ المفهوم العملي للناس لما نحكي
+
+144
+00:12:32,940 --> 00:12:38,280
+لها الفائدة 9% they know the 9% تبهوا what it
+
+145
+00:12:38,280 --> 00:12:42,380
+means from the practical point of view when we are
+
+146
+00:12:42,380 --> 00:12:45,180
+telling people the interest rate is 9% they think
+
+147
+00:12:45,180 --> 00:12:51,180
+this 9% is for the .. for the مرابحة or for the
+
+148
+00:12:51,180 --> 00:12:55,620
+interest and this is nominal this is not realبقى
+
+149
+00:12:55,620 --> 00:12:58,500
+if we consider the time frame يعني لما نروحنا
+
+150
+00:12:58,500 --> 00:13:02,920
+عالبنك نقوله قداش المرابح على السيارة بنياها
+
+151
+00:13:02,920 --> 00:13:07,360
+انتوبوا يا بنات هذا سؤال كويس نقولهم .. نقول للبنك
+
+152
+00:13:07,360 --> 00:13:10,180
+قداش المرابح على السيارة هيقولنا المرابح على
+
+153
+00:13:10,180 --> 00:13:16,900
+السيارة 6% بقى in reality is not 6% ممكن يكون أكتر
+
+154
+00:13:16,900 --> 00:13:21,320
+من 6% okayso we need to calculate the effective
+
+155
+00:13:21,320 --> 00:13:24,920
+annual return طبعا ستة في المية سنوية إذا كانت
+
+156
+00:13:24,920 --> 00:13:30,080
+أكتر من سنة هتكون أكتر من ستة في المية إذا كانت
+
+157
+00:13:30,080 --> 00:13:35,600
+أقل من سنة هتكون الفائد أقل تمام لإن ال bank ميجيش
+
+158
+00:13:35,600 --> 00:13:39,620
+يقولك والله بالظبط هيجي يقولك ستة في المية as a
+
+159
+00:13:39,620 --> 00:13:44,520
+standard per annum per annum يعني سنويا okay
+
+160
+00:13:46,150 --> 00:13:49,410
+فاحنا we need to calculate طيب لما نيجي احكيله
+
+161
+00:13:49,410 --> 00:13:53,070
+بدنا و رابح السيارة على مدة سنتين two years okay
+
+162
+00:13:53,070 --> 00:13:57,130
+six percent لكن it is not six percent it is around
+
+163
+00:13:57,130 --> 00:14:00,250
+eleven to twelve percent لأنه لما احنا بنحسب على
+
+164
+00:14:00,250 --> 00:14:03,010
+مدة سنتين so this is why it is important to
+
+165
+00:14:03,010 --> 00:14:06,190
+calculate the effective annual return just remind
+
+166
+00:14:06,190 --> 00:14:10,990
+our example in when we talk about Coca-ColaOkay,
+
+167
+00:14:11,150 --> 00:14:14,110
+so this is why it is important to calculate or to
+
+168
+00:14:14,110 --> 00:14:16,930
+estimate the effective annual return. So this
+
+169
+00:14:16,930 --> 00:14:22,150
+equation, be careful, this equation is applied if
+
+170
+00:14:22,150 --> 00:14:26,430
+we have less than one year, if the timeframe is
+
+171
+00:14:26,430 --> 00:14:28,790
+less than one year. If the timeframe is greater
+
+172
+00:14:28,790 --> 00:14:32,410
+than one year, so we need to calculate this
+
+173
+00:14:32,410 --> 00:14:37,030
+equation. إذا كان أكتر من سنة، هنستخدم هذه ال
+
+174
+00:14:37,030 --> 00:14:38,590
+equation. What is the difference?
+
+175
+00:14:43,030 --> 00:14:47,850
+إيش الفرق؟ اتطلعوا أنتوا على ال .. على ال annual
+
+176
+00:14:47,850 --> 00:14:53,970
+.. ال annual return، so one plus effective annual
+
+177
+00:14:53,970 --> 00:15:00,250
+return over power T minus one divided by T، T is
+
+178
+00:15:00,250 --> 00:15:03,050
+the time، so T
+
+179
+00:15:10,350 --> 00:15:14,030
+T in all cases is the time, the time frame or the
+
+180
+00:15:14,030 --> 00:15:17,830
+time horizon okay or the .. the time that you ..
+
+181
+00:15:17,830 --> 00:15:20,770
+you invest your money يعني ممكن يكون less than one
+
+182
+00:15:20,770 --> 00:15:24,670
+year ممكن يكون more than one year The annual
+
+183
+00:15:24,670 --> 00:15:27,690
+average
+
+184
+00:15:27,690 --> 00:15:31,390
+return or the annual return طبعا ليش احنا ماحكيناش
+
+185
+00:15:31,390 --> 00:15:36,260
+effectivethis is not effective هذا مش effective
+
+186
+00:15:36,260 --> 00:15:39,340
+لأنه is greater than one year أكتر من سنة and
+
+187
+00:15:39,340 --> 00:15:44,080
+definitely it will be greater than the effective
+
+188
+00:15:44,080 --> 00:15:51,100
+فهي ساوي one plus effective annual return times T
+
+189
+00:15:51,100 --> 00:15:55,740
+or power T minus one divided by T لو أجينا احنا
+
+190
+00:15:55,740 --> 00:16:02,040
+نرجع لمثال المرابحةلو جينا مثال مرابحة لو حكيناكم
+
+191
+00:16:02,040 --> 00:16:06,340
+for instance the effective annual return is twelve
+
+192
+00:16:06,340 --> 00:16:10,060
+percent twelve
+
+193
+00:16:10,060 --> 00:16:16,240
+percent and the مرابحة is for five years المرابح
+
+194
+00:16:16,240 --> 00:16:22,680
+لكم؟ ال tea قديش صارت؟ five years okay calculate
+
+195
+00:16:27,800 --> 00:16:32,340
+APR احسبوا ال annualized return طبعا ال annualized
+
+196
+00:16:32,340 --> 00:16:36,140
+return بيساوي one plus ال effective twelve percent
+
+197
+00:16:36,140 --> 00:16:43,840
+okay power five minus one divided by five بس طبعا
+
+198
+00:16:43,840 --> 00:16:47,820
+لما نيجي في الامتحان لما نيجي في الامتحان و احنا
+
+199
+00:16:47,820 --> 00:16:52,040
+نشوف معادلة زي هذه يعني هيك لو هذا عليه تلات درجات
+
+200
+00:16:52,040 --> 00:16:54,780
+اخدتوا علامتين قبل ما انتوا توصلوا للجواب النهائي
+
+201
+00:16:59,200 --> 00:17:04,720
+Okay بتطلع كام point one five يعني خمسة .. fifteen
+
+202
+00:17:04,720 --> 00:17:11,620
+percent بتطلع الجواب fifteen percent okay طيب if
+
+203
+00:17:11,620 --> 00:17:13,400
+they .. خلينا ناخد كمان مثال
+
+204
+00:17:18,620 --> 00:17:22,940
+مش شرق، ضخم عادى، يعني لو خلطيها point fifteen، هى
+
+205
+00:17:22,940 --> 00:17:32,060
+fifteen percent، اه، انا ايه؟ ال effective، اه، هى
+
+206
+00:17:32,060 --> 00:17:39,320
+سنة واحدة، سنة اذا
+
+207
+00:17:39,320 --> 00:17:44,420
+كان اقل من سنة، بنفشح العهد، اذا كانت اكثر من سنة،
+
+208
+00:17:44,420 --> 00:17:51,220
+طب اذا كانت سنة و اشى؟بدك شوفي جربيها شوف و بعدين
+
+209
+00:17:51,220 --> 00:17:58,560
+راجعوني لو كانت تمانتاشر شهر يا بناتي ما هو كيف ده
+
+210
+00:17:58,560 --> 00:18:06,580
+أشتغل هل أحط تمانتاشر فاكروا فيها make up في your
+
+211
+00:18:06,580 --> 00:18:11,820
+minds ممكن نحسبها واحدة نص او طريقة تانية باعتبرها
+
+212
+00:18:11,820 --> 00:18:16,120
+أقل من سنة بعمل تمانتاشر شهرع طمعاش فبتعرف واحد و
+
+213
+00:18:16,120 --> 00:18:19,120
+نص على طمعاش .. على .. بكسم الفائد ع طمعاش بطلع
+
+214
+00:18:19,120 --> 00:18:23,180
+عند الجواد في عدة طرح للحل يعني ممكن زي ما اتفضلت
+
+215
+00:18:23,180 --> 00:18:25,960
+هاي هان انه ا .. واحد و نص على واحد و نص بيمشي
+
+216
+00:18:25,960 --> 00:18:30,320
+الحل او اشترى المعادلة التانية 18 ع 12 و اكسم
+
+217
+00:18:30,320 --> 00:18:38,820
+الفائد ع 12 وخلصنا الحل okay so be careful تمام؟
+
+218
+00:18:38,820 --> 00:18:45,580
+أي سؤال يا بنات في ال .. الفرق؟حسب ما قالوا البنات
+
+219
+00:18:45,580 --> 00:18:51,720
+انا 15% okay؟
+
+220
+00:18:51,720 --> 00:19:00,100
+في حد اللي سؤال؟ any question؟ بنات انا شايف في
+
+221
+00:19:00,100 --> 00:19:04,280
+بنات معاهم مش قالات حاسبة يعني بس اربع خمس بنات
+
+222
+00:19:04,280 --> 00:19:08,200
+معاهم قالات حاسبة فانا يعني هذا في indicator عندي
+
+223
+00:19:08,200 --> 00:19:13,190
+ان انتوا you try these questions in your examإنه
+
+224
+00:19:13,190 --> 00:19:18,010
+بتجربوا هذه الأسئلة في الامتحان وبالتالي أنا مش
+
+225
+00:19:18,010 --> 00:19:24,130
+عارف it is up to you يعني انا .. يعني زي ما
+
+226
+00:19:24,130 --> 00:19:27,110
+بيقولوا المثل يعني you can drive the horse to the
+
+227
+00:19:27,110 --> 00:19:30,710
+water but you cannot force him to drink يعني ممكن
+
+228
+00:19:30,710 --> 00:19:34,110
+تاخد الحصان للمي بس مابنقدرش نقوله اشرب احنا
+
+229
+00:19:34,110 --> 00:19:37,820
+بنفهمكم بس مابنقدرش نقولكم انجحوالأنه انا شايف ال
+
+230
+00:19:37,820 --> 00:19:40,380
+majority one, two, three, four, five, six, seven,
+
+231
+00:19:40,440 --> 00:19:43,980
+eight, nine, ten, twelve, fourteen, fifteen,
+
+232
+00:19:44,140 --> 00:19:47,740
+sixteen about twenty-five students of thirty-five
+
+233
+00:19:47,740 --> 00:19:54,040
+they leave their calculators and enjoying in the
+
+234
+00:19:54,040 --> 00:19:58,140
+house or houses يعني القلاد الحاسمة مبسوطة في
+
+235
+00:19:58,140 --> 00:20:02,060
+البيوت رغم ان انا في التعليمات قلتلكم جيبوا القلاد
+
+236
+00:20:02,060 --> 00:20:05,960
+الحاسمة، مظبوط؟ okay it is not my problem then
+
+237
+00:20:10,930 --> 00:20:18,190
+انشوف هاي عندكم اللي في البيت ترجع للألحاس بتاعتها
+
+238
+00:20:18,190 --> 00:20:21,950
+and they .. and she apply this بتحاول تطبق الكلام
+
+239
+00:20:21,950 --> 00:20:26,750
+هذا لإن أنا ممكن أجيب الكتابل and fill this space
+
+240
+00:20:26,750 --> 00:20:35,950
+يعني بجيب الكتابل و انتوا عبوا الفرار لازم
+
+241
+00:20:35,950 --> 00:20:43,660
+يساووا بعضexactly لازم هنجيب
+
+242
+00:20:43,660 --> 00:20:49,380
+أسئلة بتلات أشهر انا مابحبش يعني أخدعكم يعني هجيب
+
+243
+00:20:49,380 --> 00:20:52,160
+تلات أشهر و باسبوعين و بشهر و بشهرين و بيوم كمان
+
+244
+00:20:52,160 --> 00:20:57,800
+هجيب و هجيب أسئلة تمنتاشر شهر و تسعتاشر شهر لأ
+
+245
+00:20:57,800 --> 00:21:02,180
+يعني هو إذا سؤال واحد اتوقعوا واحد من هدول هو سؤال
+
+246
+00:21:02,180 --> 00:21:08,600
+واحد إذا أسبوعين يا بنات إذا كانت أسبوعينإذا كانت
+
+247
+00:21:08,600 --> 00:21:12,980
+اسبوعين انت تطلع على ال T بنقسم ال T على 52 و
+
+248
+00:21:12,980 --> 00:21:23,940
+بنقدر اللي هو عندك اسبوعين على 52 ها دي فهمتي اه
+
+249
+00:21:23,940 --> 00:21:30,420
+360 او 365 يعني بدناش ندخل ليش 360 و ليش 365
+
+250
+00:21:30,420 --> 00:21:36,680
+تنتنصح نعتبرها طيب نتطلع على ال compound rates
+
+251
+00:21:37,250 --> 00:21:40,710
+طلعوا على ال table الموجود عندنا طبعا هذا ال table
+
+252
+00:21:40,710 --> 00:21:46,430
+اللي احنا طبقناه طبقناه على المعادلات اللي احنا
+
+253
+00:21:46,430 --> 00:21:52,850
+أخدناها قبل شوية نشوف إذا كان عندنا سنة واحدة طبعا
+
+254
+00:21:52,850 --> 00:21:55,350
+هذا كله انا بتاوم و حكيتلكوا إياها إذا كان عندنا
+
+255
+00:21:55,350 --> 00:22:00,690
+سنة فاكرين week و إذا كان سنة twelve months و إذا
+
+256
+00:22:00,690 --> 00:22:05,110
+كانت day و إذا كانت quarter طبعا إذا كانت
+
+257
+00:22:05,110 --> 00:22:12,550
+continuouscontinuous ايش معناه continuous ايش يعني
+
+258
+00:22:12,550 --> 00:22:19,930
+مستمر تقريبا يعني اذا انا لو اجيت و قلتلكم انا احط
+
+259
+00:22:19,930 --> 00:22:23,590
+لكم مية دولار و الفائدة بتاعتها تتسبب continuous
+
+260
+00:22:23,590 --> 00:22:29,010
+دائما for infinity هنيجي لمعادلة بتاعتها how we
+
+261
+00:22:29,010 --> 00:22:34,250
+calculate this هنستخدم المعادلة احنا اشرحكوا إياها
+
+262
+00:22:34,250 --> 00:22:42,690
+طيب نتطلع احنا اذا كانت T واحدT1 يعني سنة طبعا
+
+263
+00:22:42,690 --> 00:22:52,230
+ال .. ال RF 5.8% okay إذا كانت six months الرقم
+
+264
+00:22:52,230 --> 00:22:57,030
+286 من ورا إجا؟ إذا كانت ست شهور توريس اللي
+
+265
+00:22:57,030 --> 00:23:00,370
+خدحناها؟ ست شهور .. ست شهور .. ست شهور .. ست شهور
+
+266
+00:23:00,370 --> 00:23:01,290
+.. ست شهور .. ست شهور .. ست شهور .. ست شهور .. ست
+
+267
+00:23:01,290 --> 00:23:02,370
+شهور .. ست شهور .. ست شهور .. ست شهور .. ست شهور
+
+268
+00:23:02,370 --> 00:23:03,710
+.. ست شهور .. ست شهور .. ست شهور .. ست شهور .. ست
+
+269
+00:23:03,710 --> 00:23:06,170
+شهور .. ست شهور .. ست شهور .. ست شهور .. ست شهور
+
+270
+00:23:06,170 --> 00:23:06,410
+.. ست شهور .. ست شهور .. ست شهور .. ست شهور .. ست
+
+271
+00:23:06,410 --> 00:23:15,690
+شهور .. ست شعلى .. على .. على اتنين جربيها شوف
+
+272
+00:23:15,690 --> 00:23:20,370
+جربيها على ال calculator يلا لإن هذا ال table ممكن
+
+273
+00:23:20,370 --> 00:23:25,330
+يجيكوا مشابه إلهم الأرقى
+
+274
+00:23:25,330 --> 00:23:28,730
+في الفائدة إذا كانت سنة هنحسبها هكذا طب إذا كانت
+
+275
+00:23:28,730 --> 00:23:33,690
+ست شهور طبعا
+
+276
+00:23:33,690 --> 00:23:39,610
+طيب إذا كانت quarter عايش نجسمهاإيش quarter يعني
+
+277
+00:23:39,610 --> 00:23:43,250
+ربع؟ ربع على أربع على أربع هاي بقاطيكوا إياها طب
+
+278
+00:23:43,250 --> 00:23:51,030
+جداش تطلع؟ اتأكدوا هنقسم الأساس على أربع أساسي
+
+279
+00:23:51,030 --> 00:23:59,630
+هتقسم الأساس طبعا ما شاء الله عليكم مظبوط طيب إذا
+
+280
+00:23:59,630 --> 00:24:04,330
+كانت one month شهر ع اتناش كدهش؟
+
+281
+00:24:06,830 --> 00:24:12,670
+مصبوط طيب إذا كانت one week مصبوط
+
+282
+00:24:12,670 --> 00:24:17,370
+كم هتطلع؟
+
+283
+00:24:17,370 --> 00:24:24,690
+okay one day طيب إذا نعرف العمود التاني مواضح
+
+284
+00:24:24,690 --> 00:24:31,550
+ماعناش مشكلة من وين احنا جبناها الشهر هذا one
+
+285
+00:24:31,550 --> 00:24:36,030
+month هنجسمه ع 12 هذي هنجسمها ع 12اللي بتاعة ال
+
+286
+00:24:36,030 --> 00:24:40,730
+one year هنجسمها ع 12 طيب
+
+287
+00:24:40,730 --> 00:24:46,070
+طيب
+
+288
+00:24:46,070 --> 00:24:50,770
+بنا نحسب احنا ال annualized نحسب ال annualized
+
+289
+00:24:50,770 --> 00:24:58,330
+بناتنا نحسب ال annualized اللي
+
+290
+00:24:58,330 --> 00:25:01,430
+هو اللي اكتوه .. هو اللي نشترك .. المعادلة تبعتنا
+
+291
+00:25:01,430 --> 00:25:05,580
+ال annualizedبتلاحظوا ال one year ماتتغيرش لإنه
+
+292
+00:25:05,580 --> 00:25:09,260
+احنا standard هذه one year ناخد ال six months
+
+293
+00:25:09,260 --> 00:25:22,960
+تعرفوا تحسبوها لحالكم ال six months ال
+
+294
+00:25:22,960 --> 00:25:26,500
+six months احسبوها بالمعادلة اللي احنا اعطاناكوا
+
+295
+00:25:26,500 --> 00:25:29,860
+إياها المعادلة اللي قلنالكوا فيها اللي هي هذا
+
+296
+00:25:31,980 --> 00:25:37,760
+الأولى بالظبط هذه احسبولىها بهذه الطريقة okay
+
+297
+00:25:37,760 --> 00:25:44,760
+اعطوك المياه واجب هذه تشوفوها في البيت اه
+
+298
+00:25:44,760 --> 00:25:48,960
+هذه
+
+299
+00:25:48,960 --> 00:25:52,960
+احسبوها احسبولى هذه ال five seven ال o في five
+
+300
+00:25:52,960 --> 00:25:58,350
+seven اذا كانت six months بتطبيق المعادلة هذهيعني
+
+301
+00:25:58,350 --> 00:26:04,310
+هنا واحد زائد ال R اللي هو zero five eight طبعا
+
+302
+00:26:04,310 --> 00:26:09,110
+هنقسمها على اتناش في المية وهنا نحط ستة على اتناش
+
+303
+00:26:09,110 --> 00:26:15,370
+بطلع عن كل جهة طيب
+
+304
+00:26:15,370 --> 00:26:23,690
+طيب هلأ إيش هنسوي واحد زائدطيب احنا على الجدول
+
+305
+00:26:23,690 --> 00:26:28,330
+احنا حلو واحد زائد او five eight هذي احنا نكسبها
+
+306
+00:26:28,330 --> 00:26:36,590
+على اتماشي وهذه ستة على اتماشي بس هذا الجواب و
+
+307
+00:26:36,590 --> 00:26:40,150
+الباقي بتشتغلوا نفس الفكرة بس بدل ما احنا اتماشي
+
+308
+00:26:40,150 --> 00:26:47,750
+نشوف هل هي أسبوع هل هي سنة هل هي ..
+
+309
+00:26:47,750 --> 00:26:51,310
+حاولوا تعملوها في البيت و تجيبوا ليها اللقاء
+
+310
+00:26:51,310 --> 00:26:55,520
+الجاهدال effective annual الجواب ال effective
+
+311
+00:26:55,520 --> 00:27:07,720
+annual okay اي
+
+312
+00:27:07,720 --> 00:27:11,180
+واحد
+
+313
+00:27:11,180 --> 00:27:18,320
+اي واحد اه
+
+314
+00:27:21,830 --> 00:27:26,790
+واحد point تأكد من هذا الحزب طيب خلّيها عندك هنا
+
+315
+00:27:26,790 --> 00:27:30,430
+خلّيها عندكم هذه عملوها واجب homework و جيبوليها
+
+316
+00:27:30,430 --> 00:27:36,010
+يوم السبت فمعكم عندكم بال .. احسبوا .. احسبوا بدي
+
+317
+00:27:36,010 --> 00:27:40,710
+انا تطلعولي ال .. اعتبروا هذا العمود مش موجود و
+
+318
+00:27:40,710 --> 00:27:46,670
+جيبوليها بس هذا المطلوب منكم يعني
+
+319
+00:27:46,670 --> 00:27:51,330
+مطلوب منكوا شغلتان بدي ال .. بدي هذا العمود له هذا
+
+320
+00:27:52,160 --> 00:27:57,240
+جيبوليا و بدى تجيبولى هذا العمود بس الحل المحلول
+
+321
+00:27:57,240 --> 00:28:02,780
+موجود عندكم لكن انتوا حسبوليا على الحاسبة لأنه انا
+
+322
+00:28:02,780 --> 00:28:06,500
+شايف اغلب البنات ماعهاش على حاسبة فاللي هيستفيد بس
+
+323
+00:28:06,500 --> 00:28:10,920
+مجموعة اربع خمس بنات اللي هيستفيدهم فاروحوا البيت
+
+324
+00:28:10,920 --> 00:28:17,620
+و اعملولى calculations ل العمودين هدون تمام؟ شوفوا
+
+325
+00:28:17,620 --> 00:28:24,980
+كيف تم الحس بتاعتهمعرفنا أيش واجبكم يعني و
+
+326
+00:28:24,980 --> 00:28:29,620
+بتجيبولييا اللقاء الجاي عشان نحلكم اليها طيب okay
+
+327
+00:28:29,620 --> 00:28:30,240
+اعطيك العافية
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/KZKR9Sw13O0_raw.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/KZKR9Sw13O0_raw.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..06368edacbc979e14a7e047b0d1d904df1de67a7
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/KZKR9Sw13O0_raw.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1588 @@
+1
+00:00:21,160 --> 00:00:26,620
+بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم احنا بنحكي ب chapter five و
+
+2
+00:00:26,620 --> 00:00:31,700
+بنحكي عن ال risk و ال interest rate of return in
+
+3
+00:00:31,700 --> 00:00:35,320
+the previous meeting we talked about factors
+
+4
+00:00:35,320 --> 00:00:40,000
+influence on the interest rate يعني المحاضر الفاتر
+
+5
+00:00:40,000 --> 00:00:42,600
+حكينا عن العوامل اللي بتأثر على ال interest rate
+
+6
+00:00:42,600 --> 00:00:47,760
+يعني مين بيقدر يقولي إيش هي العوامل اللي كنا نحكي
+
+7
+00:00:47,760 --> 00:00:55,090
+فيهاsupply and demand government expected rate of
+
+8
+00:00:55,090 --> 00:01:01,650
+inflation طيب other factors فى factors أخرى taxes
+
+9
+00:01:01,650 --> 00:01:08,090
+ايش كمان maturity okay that's fine so in the
+
+10
+00:01:08,090 --> 00:01:10,730
+previous meeting we focused on the impact of
+
+11
+00:01:10,730 --> 00:01:15,250
+inflation حكينا عن أثر ال inflation مظبوط وحكينا R
+
+12
+00:01:16,750 --> 00:01:23,090
+Big R which is the nominal is equal small R which
+
+13
+00:01:23,090 --> 00:01:28,410
+is the real plus expected I expected I is the
+
+14
+00:01:28,410 --> 00:01:31,770
+expected inflation okay so we don't have problem
+
+15
+00:01:31,770 --> 00:01:36,670
+on this if we want to estimate R small R اذا احنا
+
+16
+00:01:36,670 --> 00:01:42,570
+بدنا نعرف R so R is equal big R minus expected I
+
+17
+00:01:42,570 --> 00:01:51,550
+sowe can tell that R the effective rate of return
+
+18
+00:01:51,550 --> 00:01:54,910
+or the effective interest rate has a negative
+
+19
+00:01:54,910 --> 00:01:58,290
+function with the expected inflation يعني بيكون
+
+20
+00:01:58,290 --> 00:02:03,970
+علاقة الفائدة الحقيقية مع التضخم هي علاقة عكسية زي
+
+21
+00:02:03,970 --> 00:02:10,210
+ما احنا شايفين if this if I increase if I increase
+
+22
+00:02:10,210 --> 00:02:19,250
+R decrease okay ضق ضق forget thisيعني ما .. so if
+
+23
+00:02:19,250 --> 00:02:23,350
+if expected inflation increase the R will increase
+
+24
+00:02:23,350 --> 00:02:25,970
+so in this case the investor they are not keep
+
+25
+00:02:25,970 --> 00:02:29,050
+silent المستثمرين ما بيكتفوش اليهم they are not
+
+26
+00:02:29,050 --> 00:02:33,430
+keep silent so when I increase if you look at I
+
+27
+00:02:33,430 --> 00:02:39,230
+here when I increase the investors asking for
+
+28
+00:02:39,230 --> 00:02:42,610
+increase the nominal rate of return if you look at
+
+29
+00:02:42,610 --> 00:02:47,280
+the relationship between big Rand the expected
+
+30
+00:02:47,280 --> 00:02:53,420
+inflation so when I increase the nominal rate of
+
+31
+00:02:53,420 --> 00:02:56,400
+return increase so don't get confused on this
+
+32
+00:02:56,400 --> 00:03:01,260
+ماترتبكوش يعني just look at the equations طلعوا
+
+33
+00:03:01,260 --> 00:03:04,220
+على ال equations مظبوط if we if this increase
+
+34
+00:03:04,220 --> 00:03:07,880
+because this is positive sign so this is increase
+
+35
+00:03:07,880 --> 00:03:12,240
+but if this increase because this is negative sign
+
+36
+00:03:12,240 --> 00:03:17,500
+so this is decrease that's itيعني نرجع دائما لل
+
+37
+00:03:17,500 --> 00:03:21,620
+formulas if you get confused in your exam and I
+
+38
+00:03:21,620 --> 00:03:25,720
+ask you to correct the answer you just go back to
+
+39
+00:03:25,720 --> 00:03:29,480
+the equation and just tell yourself if this
+
+40
+00:03:29,480 --> 00:03:31,540
+increase because this is positive sign this
+
+41
+00:03:31,540 --> 00:03:34,460
+increase, if this increase because this is
+
+42
+00:03:34,460 --> 00:03:39,740
+negative sign so this is decreaseOkay so the ..
+
+43
+00:03:39,740 --> 00:03:44,040
+this is what we said in the previous meeting today
+
+44
+00:03:44,040 --> 00:03:50,120
+we will include the taxation هندخل ال taxationOkay
+
+45
+00:03:50,120 --> 00:03:55,660
+يعني نشوف what is the impact of taxation on the
+
+46
+00:03:55,660 --> 00:03:58,940
+real interest rates هنشوف أثر التكسيش على ال real
+
+47
+00:03:58,940 --> 00:04:02,840
+interest rates okay any question before talking
+
+48
+00:04:02,840 --> 00:04:10,560
+about this okay no question so
+
+49
+00:04:10,560 --> 00:04:14,660
+taxes we
+
+50
+00:04:14,660 --> 00:04:19,960
+say it's any incomeis subject to a particular tax
+
+51
+00:04:19,960 --> 00:04:24,560
+so investors paying tax on dividends they are
+
+52
+00:04:24,560 --> 00:04:27,540
+paying tax on their income they are paying tax on
+
+53
+00:04:27,540 --> 00:04:30,920
+their capital gains I explained this before يعني
+
+54
+00:04:30,920 --> 00:04:35,320
+ال investors هم لازم يدفعوا ضريبة لأن الحكومة
+
+55
+00:04:35,320 --> 00:04:39,240
+تتمول مشاريعها بعد ساعة فضريبة على الدخل ضريبة على
+
+56
+00:04:39,240 --> 00:04:43,420
+توزيعات الأرباح ضريبة على الأرباح الأسمادية بتاعة
+
+57
+00:04:43,420 --> 00:04:47,410
+الشركةSo tax liabilities are based on nominal
+
+58
+00:04:47,410 --> 00:04:51,970
+income ال tax لما احنا بنحسبها بنحسبها على ال
+
+59
+00:04:51,970 --> 00:04:57,650
+nominal على العقد الإسمي okay before deducting any
+
+60
+00:04:57,650 --> 00:05:02,470
+expenses جاب لما احنا particular in the interest
+
+61
+00:05:02,470 --> 00:05:05,470
+rate تحديدا في ال interest rate يعني احنا لما
+
+62
+00:05:05,470 --> 00:05:09,550
+بناخد tax we calculate tax based on this not based
+
+63
+00:05:09,550 --> 00:05:15,540
+on this okay just be carefulSo taxes are
+
+64
+00:05:15,540 --> 00:05:19,320
+calculated based on the nominal rate of income
+
+65
+00:05:19,320 --> 00:05:24,000
+بتحسب على nominal rate of income So if we want to
+
+66
+00:05:24,000 --> 00:05:31,220
+know the after tax rate you just time R 1 minus T
+
+67
+00:05:31,220 --> 00:05:41,360
+So R after tax just after tax it means R 1 minus T
+
+68
+00:05:42,530 --> 00:05:44,190
+one minus one minus one minus one minus one minus
+
+69
+00:05:44,190 --> 00:05:47,830
+one minus one minus one minus one minus one minus
+
+70
+00:05:47,830 --> 00:05:52,650
+one minus one minus one minus one minus one minus
+
+71
+00:05:52,650 --> 00:05:54,110
+one minus one minus one minus one minus one minus
+
+72
+00:05:54,110 --> 00:05:54,110
+one minus one minus one minus one minus one minus
+
+73
+00:05:54,110 --> 00:05:54,110
+one minus one minus one minus one minus one minus
+
+74
+00:05:54,110 --> 00:06:09,330
+one minus one
+
+75
+00:06:09,330 --> 00:06:10,970
+minus one minus one minus one minus one minus one
+
+76
+00:06:10,970 --> 00:06:10,970
+minus one minus one minus one minus one minus one
+
+77
+00:06:10,970 --> 00:06:10,970
+minus one minus one minus one minus one minus one
+
+78
+00:06:10,970 --> 00:06:10,970
+minus one minus one minus one minus one minus one
+
+79
+00:06:10,970 --> 00:06:10,970
+minus one minus one minus one minus one minus one
+
+80
+00:06:10,970 --> 00:06:10,970
+minus one minus one minus one minus one minus one
+
+81
+00:06:10,970 --> 00:06:10,970
+minus one minus one minus one minus one minus one
+
+82
+00:06:10,970 --> 00:06:11,150
+minus one minus one minus one minus one minus one
+
+83
+00:06:11,150 --> 00:06:11,170
+minus one minus one minus one minus one minus one
+
+84
+00:06:11,170 --> 00:06:11,170
+minus one minus one minus one minus one minus one
+
+85
+00:06:11,170 --> 00:06:11,170
+minus one minus one minus one minus one minus one
+
+86
+00:06:11,170 --> 00:06:11,170
+minus one minus one minus one minus one minus one
+
+87
+00:06:11,170 --> 00:06:11,170
+minus one minus one minus one minus one minus one
+
+88
+00:06:11,170 --> 00:06:11,170
+minus one minus one minus one minus one minus one
+
+89
+00:06:11,170 --> 00:06:11,170
+minus one minus one minus one minus one minus one
+
+90
+00:06:11,170 --> 00:06:11,250
+minus one minus one minus one minus one minus one
+
+91
+00:06:11,250 --> 00:06:23,530
+minusوهو 0.07 او 7%، لذلك بعد التجارة الواقعي هو 7
+
+92
+00:06:23,530 --> 00:06:28,420
+% لأننا قمنا بتدخل التجارةNow in this equation we
+
+93
+00:06:28,420 --> 00:06:32,820
+only consider the taxation so we should or we have
+
+94
+00:06:32,820 --> 00:06:36,120
+to put all them together taxation and inflation
+
+95
+00:06:36,120 --> 00:06:41,060
+لان احنا بال previous meeting المحاضرة
+
+96
+00:06:41,060 --> 00:06:44,240
+الفاترة حكينا بس عن ال inflation و دلوقت حكينا عن
+
+97
+00:06:44,240 --> 00:06:47,920
+ال taxation فحنحطهم التانية مع بعض ال inflation مع
+
+98
+00:06:47,920 --> 00:06:52,400
+ال taxation okay so we will see هنشوف
+
+99
+00:06:57,550 --> 00:07:00,650
+التكسيش لماذا تحصل على النمو؟ لماذا تحصل على
+
+100
+00:07:00,650 --> 00:07:07,410
+النمو؟ لأن النمو
+
+101
+00:07:07,410 --> 00:07:13,040
+يحتوي على الكثير من الفaktorsOkay so in order to
+
+102
+00:07:13,040 --> 00:07:18,240
+calculate the real we have to deduct the taxation
+
+103
+00:07:18,240 --> 00:07:22,000
+فاكره احنا خلينا هذا this is a good question بارح
+
+104
+00:07:22,000 --> 00:07:27,780
+حكينا ان ر is
+
+105
+00:07:27,780 --> 00:07:33,760
+a function of R plus inflation premium plus
+
+106
+00:07:33,760 --> 00:07:36,780
+liquidity premium plus maturity premium plus
+
+107
+00:07:36,780 --> 00:07:40,320
+taxation premiumI explained this formula yesterday
+
+108
+00:07:40,320 --> 00:07:47,140
+fine okay فال inflation premium is a function of
+
+109
+00:07:47,140 --> 00:07:55,880
+this is not a function of this يعني هذه يعني
+
+110
+00:07:55,880 --> 00:08:01,100
+معادلة بدلالة r مش معادلة بدلالة small r يعني هذه
+
+111
+00:08:01,100 --> 00:08:07,310
+هي اللي ال dependentهذه ال .. yes هذا هو العامل
+
+112
+00:08:07,310 --> 00:08:11,310
+الرئيسي هذه هي ال dependence فبتعتمد على العوامل
+
+113
+00:08:11,310 --> 00:08:15,390
+هذه ال inflation فبتتغير ال R تغير ال R إذا تغيرت
+
+114
+00:08:15,390 --> 00:08:19,530
+هذول و هذه R is a part of the equations هذول إذا
+
+115
+00:08:19,530 --> 00:08:22,390
+أنتوا أخدتوا بال statistics أو بال equations أو
+
+116
+00:08:22,390 --> 00:08:25,130
+بال modeling إن هذول إيش بيسميهم ال factors
+
+117
+00:08:25,130 --> 00:08:30,310
+متغيرات مستقلة ولا متغيرات تابعة مستقلة إيش رأيكم؟
+
+118
+00:08:30,310 --> 00:08:34,230
+في ناس بيحكوا تابعة في ناس مستقلةمتغيرات مستخلة
+
+119
+00:08:34,230 --> 00:08:38,710
+مستخلة بيسموها independent و هذا مستخل .. هذا ايش
+
+120
+00:08:38,710 --> 00:08:43,290
+dependent تابع so all of these factors are
+
+121
+00:08:43,290 --> 00:08:49,410
+independent so R depends on these factors ال R ال
+
+122
+00:08:49,410 --> 00:08:53,370
+big R بتعتمد على ال factors هذي for instance if
+
+123
+00:08:53,370 --> 00:08:56,490
+inflation increase look at here if inflation
+
+124
+00:08:56,490 --> 00:09:02,500
+increase R will increase denominatorif taxation
+
+125
+00:09:02,500 --> 00:09:07,080
+increase the R nominal will increase but it has an
+
+126
+00:09:07,080 --> 00:09:12,160
+opposite function with small r لكن عندهم علاقة
+
+127
+00:09:12,160 --> 00:09:14,760
+عكسية مع ال small r لأن لو أخدنا ال R على جانب
+
+128
+00:09:14,760 --> 00:09:18,740
+هتاخدوا هدول بال minus أسيبا لأن خدوا ال R على
+
+129
+00:09:18,740 --> 00:09:23,180
+جانب هيك فتساوي R بتساوي big R minus هدول كلهم
+
+130
+00:09:23,180 --> 00:09:27,090
+فهتصير negative functionI don't know your level in
+
+131
+00:09:27,090 --> 00:09:31,390
+.. on mathematics or statistics but this is the ..
+
+132
+00:09:31,390 --> 00:09:35,270
+you answer .. answer the question يعني أنا ماعرفش
+
+133
+00:09:35,270 --> 00:09:39,190
+أنا مستواكم بال mathematics لكن هذا هو ازاي انتوا
+
+134
+00:09:39,190 --> 00:09:44,510
+بتعرفوا لما نروح نودل ال R فيك نغير إشارتهم يصير
+
+135
+00:09:44,510 --> 00:09:48,490
+هذا الإجراء so and it changes in I و ال influence
+
+136
+00:09:48,490 --> 00:09:53,140
+on .. on Rany changes in taxation will influence
+
+137
+00:09:53,140 --> 00:09:56,840
+on r طب احنا زي ما حكينا لكم we will mix them
+
+138
+00:09:56,840 --> 00:10:00,200
+together هنحطهم في بعض بارح حكينا مع الinflation
+
+139
+00:10:00,200 --> 00:10:03,440
+اليوم حكينا مع ال taxation هنحطهم في معادلة مع بعض
+
+140
+00:10:03,440 --> 00:10:08,040
+just put in your mind these equations خلوكم حافظين
+
+141
+00:10:08,040 --> 00:10:15,200
+ال equations اللي عندكم given a tax rate T زي ما
+
+142
+00:10:15,200 --> 00:10:16,040
+احنا حطينا T
+
+143
+00:10:37,210 --> 00:10:41,830
+عارفين الكلام هذا لما احنا كنا نحكي R is equal to
+
+144
+00:10:41,830 --> 00:10:47,420
+R minus Ior expected I منذكرنا هذا البارحة هنا R
+
+145
+00:10:47,420 --> 00:10:51,280
+is equal to R minus I و قبل شوية حكينا فيها طيب
+
+146
+00:10:51,280 --> 00:10:55,000
+لما احنا بنحكي عن after taxation شوفوا كيف احنا
+
+147
+00:10:55,000 --> 00:11:01,700
+هنشفق المعادلة ببساطة هذه هتساوي R one minus T
+
+148
+00:11:01,700 --> 00:11:05,540
+okay
+
+149
+00:11:05,540 --> 00:11:15,310
+R one minus T minus Iلأننا نعتبر أن الـR هذى is
+
+150
+00:11:15,310 --> 00:11:22,010
+after tax مش احنا بناخد الضريبة و هناخد ال I فاحنا
+
+151
+00:11:22,010 --> 00:11:26,770
+دخلنا الضريبة و دخلنا ال I فاسعودنا بهذه مكانها R
+
+152
+00:11:26,770 --> 00:11:33,270
+1-T لأنه after tax minus I بعدين
+
+153
+00:11:33,270 --> 00:11:38,550
+كملنا اخر اشي المهم نصل لهذه ال formula اللى هو R
+
+154
+00:11:38,550 --> 00:11:41,270
+1-T
+
+155
+00:11:43,300 --> 00:11:48,480
+بس هذا ضرب يعني اشي سونا احنا R plus I ضربناها في
+
+156
+00:11:48,480 --> 00:11:54,330
+one minus T minus I يعني هذه هيها okayو روحنا
+
+157
+00:11:54,330 --> 00:12:00,050
+عوضنا R زائد I في one minus T بالاخير بلزمكوش
+
+158
+00:12:00,050 --> 00:12:02,690
+تحفظوا هذا طبعا بس بالاخير كنتوا تعرفوا لما احنا
+
+159
+00:12:02,690 --> 00:12:07,490
+نحط ال I مع ال T المعادلة هتيه R one minus T minus
+
+160
+00:12:07,490 --> 00:12:12,270
+IT that's it يعني بس احفظولي ال formula I'm not
+
+161
+00:12:12,270 --> 00:12:15,910
+asking you how to drive the formula مش هنسألكم كيف
+
+162
+00:12:15,910 --> 00:12:19,610
+تعملوا driving لل formula يعني مش هسألكم كيف
+
+163
+00:12:19,610 --> 00:12:27,770
+تشتقوا المعادلة بالاخير انا I'm asking youR1-T-IT
+
+164
+00:12:27,770 --> 00:12:34,570
+ناخد مثال شوف كده اكتب
+
+165
+00:12:34,570 --> 00:12:39,490
+المعادلة هذه after
+
+166
+00:12:39,490 --> 00:12:43,350
+tax tax
+
+167
+00:12:43,350 --> 00:12:50,550
+rate لنحسب ال after tax rate if
+
+168
+00:12:50,550 --> 00:13:05,010
+Iعارفين I؟ Inflation if I 6% if T is 30% اذا كانت
+
+169
+00:13:05,010 --> 00:13:11,430
+T if small r is
+
+170
+00:13:11,430 --> 00:13:16,070
+15% what is the after tax
+
+171
+00:13:18,740 --> 00:13:27,980
+ال I Inflation is 6% , T is 30% , R is 15% ف what
+
+172
+00:13:27,980 --> 00:13:32,500
+is the after tax؟ أحسبوها كلكم أحسبوها طبقوا ال
+
+173
+00:13:32,500 --> 00:13:39,420
+form إلى آخر واحدة طبقوا هذه بنادت سهلة يعني أنا
+
+174
+00:13:39,420 --> 00:13:44,020
+ماعطيكوا I و ماعطيكوا T و ماعطيكوا R بدنا ال after
+
+175
+00:13:44,020 --> 00:13:48,400
+tax بس just apply thisالكل طلع عنده عشرة و نص زي
+
+176
+00:13:48,400 --> 00:13:51,980
+ما حكت اذا
+
+177
+00:13:51,980 --> 00:13:56,520
+مش الكل مع الكلام فهي غلط في الحل اتأكدوا ان
+
+178
+00:13:56,520 --> 00:14:01,120
+شغلكوا صح طيب
+
+179
+00:14:01,120 --> 00:14:07,780
+كيف عملتوا هتشوفوا
+
+180
+00:14:07,780 --> 00:14:16,540
+المفروض يكون عندنا الخطف 15% واحد ناقص point 30
+
+181
+00:14:17,540 --> 00:14:25,000
+Okay خلصوها هاد لحالها، بعدين ناقص ..
+
+182
+00:14:25,000 --> 00:14:28,060
+كل
+
+183
+00:14:28,060 --> 00:14:37,280
+طلعهم 8.7؟ خلاص، مادام الكل بيكون إجابة صحيحة،
+
+184
+00:14:37,280 --> 00:14:42,670
+اللي ما طلعتش اتحول تحلها كام مرةتتأكد من .. اتفضل
+
+185
+00:14:42,670 --> 00:14:56,050
+اتفضل
+
+186
+00:14:56,050 --> 00:15:00,490
+اتفضل
+
+187
+00:15:00,490 --> 00:15:05,290
+اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل
+
+188
+00:15:05,290 --> 00:15:05,350
+اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل
+
+189
+00:15:05,350 --> 00:15:05,350
+اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل
+
+190
+00:15:05,350 --> 00:15:05,350
+اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل
+
+191
+00:15:05,350 --> 00:15:05,350
+اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل اتفضل ات
+
+192
+00:15:12,650 --> 00:15:18,410
+طيب إيش هنستفيد من المعادلة هذه after
+
+193
+00:15:18,410 --> 00:15:26,030
+tax ال after tax real rate of return falls as the
+
+194
+00:15:26,030 --> 00:15:33,050
+inflation rate rises يعني في علاقة عكسية بين ال
+
+195
+00:15:33,050 --> 00:15:36,030
+real rate of return after tax و بين ال inflation
+
+196
+00:15:36,030 --> 00:15:40,890
+يعني كل ما ال inflation بزيدwhen the inflation
+
+197
+00:15:40,890 --> 00:15:46,010
+increase اللي هو real after tax decrease تمام؟ هاي
+
+198
+00:15:46,010 --> 00:15:50,410
+the after tax real rate of return falls falls as
+
+199
+00:15:50,410 --> 00:15:54,710
+.. as يعني بسبب as the inflation rate rises يعني
+
+200
+00:15:54,710 --> 00:15:59,250
+كل ما ال inflation rate .. rate بزيد شو بيصير؟ ال
+
+201
+00:15:59,250 --> 00:16:02,590
+real rate after tax شو بيصير فيه؟ بيزيد ولا بننقص؟
+
+202
+00:16:02,590 --> 00:16:09,050
+تنقص تنقص decrease بنخفض وانتوا دايما اتذكروا هذه
+
+203
+00:16:09,050 --> 00:16:09,390
+العلاقة
+
+204
+00:16:16,120 --> 00:16:22,700
+طبعا طيب احنا عشان نركز we talk about the impact
+
+205
+00:16:22,700 --> 00:16:26,520
+of inflation we talk about the impact of taxation
+
+206
+00:16:26,520 --> 00:16:30,320
+حكينا عن ال inflation وعن ال taxation نحكي عن ال
+
+207
+00:16:30,320 --> 00:16:35,100
+holding period الفترة الزمنية لأنه لو احنا نرجع
+
+208
+00:16:35,100 --> 00:16:39,360
+لأول يوم حكينا فيهلو روحنا احنا أخدنا مرابحة مثلا
+
+209
+00:16:39,360 --> 00:16:42,600
+من .. من بنك الإسلامي و حكينا عليهم بدنا لمدة سنة
+
+210
+00:16:42,600 --> 00:16:48,340
+مرابحة تبوا هان هكون المرابحة seven percent for
+
+211
+00:16:48,340 --> 00:16:51,180
+one year طب لو قلنا عليهم بدناهاش احنا one year
+
+212
+00:16:51,180 --> 00:16:56,640
+بدناه two years هتكون أقل ولا أكتر؟ يعني مثلا ممكن
+
+213
+00:16:56,640 --> 00:17:02,130
+تكون nine percent طب إذا كانت three yearsممكن أكتر
+
+214
+00:17:02,130 --> 00:17:06,530
+increase يعني مثلا نقول 12% طيب إذا كانت semi
+
+215
+00:17:06,530 --> 00:17:10,730
+-annual نص سنة نص سنة six months ممكن يكون five
+
+216
+00:17:10,730 --> 00:17:14,770
+percent what we observe in this؟ إيش احنا بنلاحظ؟
+
+217
+00:17:14,770 --> 00:17:18,510
+كل ما زادت الفترة بزيد ال holding period كل ما
+
+218
+00:17:18,510 --> 00:17:21,390
+زادت الفترة بزيد ال holding period كل ما كانت R
+
+219
+00:17:21,390 --> 00:17:27,910
+increase كل ما كانت R increase تمام؟عشان برضه
+
+220
+00:17:27,910 --> 00:17:31,590
+تأكدوا كام مرة اذا في عندى انا ال inflation بتأثر
+
+221
+00:17:31,590 --> 00:17:36,210
+بتخفض ال R عندى ال taxation بتخفض ال R عند ال
+
+222
+00:17:36,210 --> 00:17:44,690
+holding period بتزيد ال R okay نشوف
+
+223
+00:17:44,690 --> 00:17:50,430
+مثال طب
+
+224
+00:17:50,430 --> 00:17:57,050
+فكركم ليش .. ليش why Rincrease when the holding
+
+225
+00:17:57,050 --> 00:18:01,270
+period increase؟ ليش ال R بتزيد لما ال holding
+
+226
+00:18:01,270 --> 00:18:07,410
+period بتزيد؟ يعني تطلعوا على ال chart هنا تطلعوا
+
+227
+00:18:07,410 --> 00:18:13,250
+على ال .. بدي أنا أسألكوا سؤال يعنى، هذا half year
+
+228
+00:18:13,250 --> 00:18:17,570
+مظبوط؟ نص سنة كم كان ال rates؟
+
+229
+00:18:20,350 --> 00:18:25,450
+طب لما صارنا سنة one year كام صار ال rate؟ 4.69
+
+230
+00:18:25,450 --> 00:18:33,150
+زاد ولا زاد؟ زاد زاد لو صار 25 years 3.29 طب why?
+
+231
+00:18:34,510 --> 00:18:38,490
+why when we increase the holding periods the
+
+232
+00:18:38,490 --> 00:18:44,770
+interest rate increase? why؟ ليش؟ ممكن تفتر مفتر
+
+233
+00:18:44,770 --> 00:18:49,790
+أكتر yes because of risk because of riskيعني كل ما
+
+234
+00:18:49,790 --> 00:18:54,630
+احنا زادت ال .. ال holding period they .. the risk
+
+235
+00:18:54,630 --> 00:18:59,270
+will increase مظبوط؟ because increase the
+
+236
+00:18:59,270 --> 00:19:03,850
+uncertainty بيزيد ال uncertainty عدم التأكد
+
+237
+00:19:03,850 --> 00:19:07,370
+tomorrow we .. we may know what is going tomorrow
+
+238
+00:19:07,370 --> 00:19:13,670
+the day after tomorrow we may or we may not the
+
+239
+00:19:13,670 --> 00:19:16,940
+same day in the next year we don't knowOkay the
+
+240
+00:19:16,940 --> 00:19:21,480
+same day with after ten years we don't know إذا
+
+241
+00:19:21,480 --> 00:19:25,020
+بكرا ممكن نعرف بعد بكرا برضه ممكن لكن لسبوع الجاي
+
+242
+00:19:25,020 --> 00:19:29,780
+ما .. لكن لسبوع من السنة الجاية لسبوع زي هذا من
+
+243
+00:19:29,780 --> 00:19:32,320
+السنة الجاية we don't know after ten years you
+
+244
+00:19:32,320 --> 00:19:35,720
+don't knowSo the thing is هي when the holding
+
+245
+00:19:35,720 --> 00:19:40,940
+period increase the risk increase and it increase
+
+246
+00:19:40,940 --> 00:19:45,780
+the uncertainty تزيد ال air عدم التأكد uncertainty
+
+247
+00:19:45,780 --> 00:19:54,440
+خليني أرجع نشوف zero carbon bond I explained what
+
+248
+00:19:54,440 --> 00:19:59,480
+it means zero carbon bond what it means أخدناها في
+
+249
+00:19:59,480 --> 00:20:07,140
+chapter oneفى فائدة هذا؟ لأ لأ، zero فكيف من بيع؟
+
+250
+00:20:07,140 --> 00:20:10,440
+خاصة، discount، هذا جيبنالكم يا عم ماعرفش أقولكوا
+
+251
+00:20:10,440 --> 00:20:15,800
+انه لا، discount اه، اه، so I know this, I repeat
+
+252
+00:20:15,800 --> 00:20:19,020
+it many times because in the .. in the final exam
+
+253
+00:20:19,020 --> 00:20:22,140
+you face the same problem هتواجه نفس المشكلة،
+
+254
+00:20:22,140 --> 00:20:28,190
+هتطلع التلاتةexclude the treasury bonds because
+
+255
+00:20:28,190 --> 00:20:31,130
+the treasury bonds is not selling by discount
+
+256
+00:20:31,130 --> 00:20:36,730
+مافيش فيها discount as well as the corporate bonds
+
+257
+00:20:36,730 --> 00:20:44,390
+I think A and C okay zero carbon bonds so there is
+
+258
+00:20:44,390 --> 00:20:47,410
+no interest here is discount here is the discount
+
+259
+00:20:47,410 --> 00:20:50,870
+rate the bar value no bar value is one hundred
+
+260
+00:20:50,870 --> 00:20:58,740
+dollar T maturityفترة الاستحقاق be the price and
+
+261
+00:20:58,740 --> 00:21:02,780
+RF is the risk-free total risk-free return يعني
+
+262
+00:21:02,780 --> 00:21:08,180
+هذا هو ال discount تبقى حيكون فنشوف ال risk-free
+
+263
+00:21:08,180 --> 00:21:16,580
+ال R is equal one hundred the bar value ال
+
+264
+00:21:16,580 --> 00:21:19,020
+هو ال one hundred هشوف ال bar value
+
+265
+00:21:23,330 --> 00:21:32,390
+divided by the price of tea maturity okay على ال
+
+266
+00:21:32,390 --> 00:21:35,550
+price at the maturity date يعني ال price اليوم
+
+267
+00:21:35,550 --> 00:21:38,430
+بكرا بعده فهذا ال price بتغير according to the
+
+268
+00:21:38,430 --> 00:21:42,090
+maturity حسب ال maturity هذا عشان احنا نحسب to
+
+269
+00:21:42,090 --> 00:21:46,990
+calculate the RF اذا
+
+270
+00:21:46,990 --> 00:21:50,150
+بدنا نحسب ال risk free ال risk free بتساوي ال bar
+
+271
+00:21:50,150 --> 00:21:58,050
+valueال bar value علي اللي هو ال discount فكل ما
+
+272
+00:21:58,050 --> 00:22:04,530
+احنا زادت الفترة الزمنية هذا بزيد ف ال return بزيد
+
+273
+00:22:04,530 --> 00:22:10,410
+يعني خليني انا اشوف لو كان احنا عندنا 100 دولار و
+
+274
+00:22:10,410 --> 00:22:18,350
+ال discount كان 9 9% ناقص واحد جربوها عنكم بالأقل
+
+275
+00:22:18,350 --> 00:22:28,760
+الحسبةيعني خانح كان سهل كان تسعة مية
+
+276
+00:22:28,760 --> 00:22:36,600
+على تسعة عشرة
+
+277
+00:22:36,600 --> 00:22:42,700
+okay بعد ما خفضنا الواحد okay بتكون هنا ال risk
+
+278
+00:22:42,700 --> 00:22:46,200
+free كانت 11.1
+
+279
+00:22:49,080 --> 00:22:55,160
+أيش روحنا احنا سونا بس روحنا غيرنا ال .. غيرنا ال
+
+280
+00:22:55,160 --> 00:23:00,120
+.. ال hoarding period بدل ما half year و one year
+
+281
+00:23:00,120 --> 00:23:03,480
+و ال .. okay طبخنا المعادلة هذه فاكرين هذه
+
+282
+00:23:03,480 --> 00:23:08,920
+المعادلة هذه هي هذه المعادلة طلعوا
+
+283
+00:23:08,920 --> 00:23:14,760
+على المعادلة مية بيتي minus one هي مية المية ال
+
+284
+00:23:14,760 --> 00:23:19,710
+bar value مابتتغيرش خدوا دعاكمايش اللي اتغير؟ اللي
+
+285
+00:23:19,710 --> 00:23:24,310
+اتغير ال price السعر تلاحظوا انتوا السعر شو بيصير
+
+286
+00:23:24,310 --> 00:23:29,750
+فيه لما الفترة الزمنية بيزيد السعر
+
+287
+00:23:29,750 --> 00:23:32,610
+بيخلق طب ايش .. ايش اللي بيزيد طيب؟ ال discount
+
+288
+00:23:32,610 --> 00:23:37,770
+بيزيد الخاصن بيزيد يعني احنا اذا حملنا السند هذا
+
+289
+00:23:37,770 --> 00:23:43,850
+لسنة .. لنص سنة بيكون عندى سبعة و تسعين دولار جداش
+
+290
+00:23:43,850 --> 00:23:48,290
+حصلت على خاصن اللي هو اتنين دولار و اشيطب إذا
+
+291
+00:23:48,290 --> 00:23:52,150
+حللتوا لسنة بصير حوالي أخدت أربعة دولار و نص
+
+292
+00:23:52,150 --> 00:23:56,170
+discount مظبوط طلعوا على ال 95 ال bar value ثابتة
+
+293
+00:23:56,170 --> 00:23:59,610
+مابتتغيرش و الواحد .. إيش اللي قاعد بتغير انتوا ال
+
+294
+00:23:59,610 --> 00:24:02,730
+price طلعوا طلعوا picture this picture يعني صوروا
+
+295
+00:24:02,730 --> 00:24:06,610
+الأمر إيش بس اللي بتغير ال price طب ال price إيش
+
+296
+00:24:06,610 --> 00:24:08,930
+بتغير لإن ال holding period زاد لإن ال holding
+
+297
+00:24:08,930 --> 00:24:19,800
+period بتزيد طيب خليني أسهلككم أكتر لو ..احنا قلنا
+
+298
+00:24:19,800 --> 00:24:25,060
+لك التالي انه بدي انا اخد منكوا مية دولار بدي اخد
+
+299
+00:24:25,060 --> 00:24:31,240
+منكوا كام؟ مية دولار okay هاي مية دولار قلتلكوا
+
+300
+00:24:31,240 --> 00:24:34,920
+بدي استدكوا إياها بكرا فقول okay ماشي مية دولار
+
+301
+00:24:34,920 --> 00:24:38,320
+سوى مية دولارطب لو قلتلكوا انا بدي أسدكوا إياها
+
+302
+00:24:38,320 --> 00:24:40,660
+بعد ست شهور ال 100 دولار هل ال 100 دولار is equal
+
+303
+00:24:40,660 --> 00:24:43,760
+one hundred dollar after six months طب أقل ولا
+
+304
+00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:47,600
+أكتر؟ أقل اكتر أقل طيب اللي انا اختاره انه كانت
+
+305
+00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:51,660
+قيمتها سبعة و تسعين دولار كده سعر فارج؟ discount
+
+306
+00:24:51,660 --> 00:24:55,200
+تلاتة دولار خلاص تحطوا هيك discount three dollar
+
+307
+00:24:55,200 --> 00:24:59,420
+طب قلتلكوا لأ انا بدي اياهم أسدكوا إياهم بعد سنة
+
+308
+00:24:59,420 --> 00:25:05,240
+مش بعد ست شهور ال 100 دولار هدول هل أقل من سبعة و
+
+309
+00:25:05,240 --> 00:25:08,730
+تسعين ولا أكتر؟ممكن 94 و بالتالي ال discount كده
+
+310
+00:25:08,730 --> 00:25:13,390
+ايش صار؟ 6 فشوفوا ال discount بيزيد طب قلتلكوا لأ
+
+311
+00:25:13,390 --> 00:25:16,170
+هذه ال 100 دولار انا هزيد .. هسدكوا إياها بعد تالت
+
+312
+00:25:16,170 --> 00:25:22,290
+سنين هزيد ال discount أكتر فممكن ال 100 دولار ممكن
+
+313
+00:25:22,290 --> 00:25:26,730
+85 فصار ال discount 15 دولار طب ماشي قلتلكوا انا
+
+314
+00:25:26,730 --> 00:25:29,830
+هذه ال 100 دولار هزيد .. هسدكوا إياها بعد عشر سنين
+
+315
+00:25:29,830 --> 00:25:36,120
+100 دولار بعد عشر سنين ممكن تسوى عشرة دولارمظبوط
+
+316
+00:25:36,120 --> 00:25:40,580
+تفقد من قيمتها فاكرين احنا لما حكينا عن مهر الحجات
+
+317
+00:25:40,580 --> 00:25:46,260
+زمان نفس الفكرة 100$ ساندتها 10$ ففقرة من قيمتها
+
+318
+00:25:46,260 --> 00:25:49,660
+ال discount 90$ فكل ما بيزيد ال holding period
+
+319
+00:25:49,660 --> 00:25:54,620
+بتزيد كل ما بيزيد ال holding period كل ما بيزيد ال
+
+320
+00:25:54,620 --> 00:26:00,600
+discount ماشي
+
+321
+00:26:00,600 --> 00:26:06,410
+هلا بدي انا اعطيكي 100$Okay أنا أخد منك مية دولار،
+
+322
+00:26:06,410 --> 00:26:10,630
+بنفع أنا بدأ أخد منك مية دولار، يعني أنا أداية منك
+
+323
+00:26:10,630 --> 00:26:16,330
+مية دولار، هل جيت هذه المية دولار قيمتها بعد سنة
+
+324
+00:26:16,330 --> 00:26:20,070
+تساوي مية دولار؟
+
+325
+00:26:20,070 --> 00:26:24,290
+قيمة المية دولار، طيب نسهلها شوية أكتر، المية
+
+326
+00:26:24,290 --> 00:26:30,480
+دولار هذه بتشتري فيها مثلا كسين سكر اليومطب بعد
+
+327
+00:26:30,480 --> 00:26:32,720
+خمس سنين بتشتري فيهم كيسان سُكّار؟ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ
+
+328
+00:26:32,720 --> 00:26:34,880
+لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ
+
+329
+00:26:34,880 --> 00:26:36,000
+لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ
+
+330
+00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:36,720
+لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ
+
+331
+00:26:36,720 --> 00:26:37,680
+لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ
+
+332
+00:26:37,680 --> 00:26:39,460
+لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ
+
+333
+00:26:39,460 --> 00:26:47,000
+لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ لأ ل
+
+334
+00:26:59,340 --> 00:27:06,340
+عشان نحسب ال R عشان نحسب ال R ال bar value divided
+
+335
+00:27:06,340 --> 00:27:12,800
+by the price of the treasury bonds minus 1 فال
+
+336
+00:27:12,800 --> 00:27:17,300
+price divided by the treasury bonds على نقص 1 فبعد
+
+337
+00:27:17,300 --> 00:27:23,280
+الحسبة نجدنا احنا 2.7 percent after one year 4.69
+
+338
+00:27:23,280 --> 00:27:27,400
+after 25 yearsthree hundred twenty nine percent
+
+339
+00:27:27,400 --> 00:27:34,100
+يعني بعد خمسة و عشرين سنة المية دولار الواحدة
+
+340
+00:27:34,100 --> 00:27:39,320
+بتصير تلت مية دولار بتضاعف بتصير tripled بتصير تلت
+
+341
+00:27:39,320 --> 00:27:43,560
+مرات مضاعفتها after twenty five years fixing the
+
+342
+00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:47,780
+inflation تخدوا باكم احنا we .. we .. we .. we fix
+
+343
+00:27:47,780 --> 00:27:49,780
+the inflation تخدوا باكم لو روحنا دخلنا ال
+
+344
+00:27:49,780 --> 00:27:54,300
+inflation كمانهذه بس بوجود ال holding period دخلنا
+
+345
+00:27:54,300 --> 00:27:57,340
+بس ال holding period لكن تصور لو احنا دخلنا ال
+
+346
+00:27:57,340 --> 00:27:59,300
+holding period دخلنا ال inflation دخلنا ال
+
+347
+00:27:59,300 --> 00:28:02,920
+taxation تلاتة مع بعض what is the hell of this
+
+348
+00:28:02,920 --> 00:28:06,480
+equation؟
+
+349
+00:28:06,480 --> 00:28:09,740
+هو بتعني it's complicated تمام؟ so you understand
+
+350
+00:28:09,740 --> 00:28:15,260
+this يعني احنا هنجيبلكم مثلا في ال exam هنجيبلكم
+
+351
+00:28:15,260 --> 00:28:19,340
+معلومات ل price هعطيكم بار value and ask you about
+
+352
+00:28:19,340 --> 00:28:26,130
+the calculate Rفي حد مش عارف يحسب R؟ هذه اللي مش
+
+353
+00:28:26,130 --> 00:28:31,210
+عارف يحكيلي اللي مش عارف يحسب آخر عمود طلع فيه
+
+354
+00:28:31,210 --> 00:28:37,490
+منيح هذا الرقم okay ما احنا اليوم احنا .. احنا we
+
+355
+00:28:37,490 --> 00:28:42,790
+are in the heaven احنا هلأ بالجنة يعني and we can
+
+356
+00:28:42,790 --> 00:28:47,210
+talk as much as we can but when we are in the exam
+
+357
+00:28:49,290 --> 00:28:54,870
+so what you can do try it now is much better than
+
+358
+00:28:54,870 --> 00:28:58,590
+trying in the exam لإنه إحنا نجربها هان أحسن ما
+
+359
+00:28:58,590 --> 00:29:07,350
+نجربها في الامتحان okay هاي هادي تطلع two point
+
+360
+00:29:07,350 --> 00:29:12,870
+seven percent يعني مية عملنا مية تقسيم سبعة وتسعين
+
+361
+00:29:12,870 --> 00:29:17,110
+minus ستة وتلاتين بس في حد بعرفش يعني الكلام هذا
+
+362
+00:29:17,750 --> 00:29:21,030
+بعدين تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا
+
+363
+00:29:21,030 --> 00:29:29,510
+الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا
+
+364
+00:29:29,510 --> 00:29:29,850
+الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا
+
+365
+00:29:29,850 --> 00:29:29,870
+الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا
+
+366
+00:29:29,870 --> 00:29:29,990
+الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا
+
+367
+00:29:29,990 --> 00:29:30,190
+الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا
+
+368
+00:29:30,190 --> 00:29:31,590
+الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا
+
+369
+00:29:31,590 --> 00:29:31,790
+الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا
+
+370
+00:29:31,790 --> 00:29:38,150
+الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع هذا الجواب تطلع
+
+371
+00:29:38,150 --> 00:29:46,230
+هذا الجواب تطلع
+
+372
+00:29:46,230 --> 00:29:46,350
+هذا
+
+373
+00:29:50,660 --> 00:29:57,900
+احسبوها يا بنات عشان تتأكدوا شغله صح وين
+
+374
+00:29:57,900 --> 00:30:06,100
+القلعة الحاس بتاعتكنتوا؟ طلعت
+
+375
+00:30:06,100 --> 00:30:09,360
+مظبوط؟
+
+376
+00:30:09,360 --> 00:30:14,060
+مين
+
+377
+00:30:14,060 --> 00:30:20,950
+ما طلعتش عنده؟ بالظبط مين ما طلعتش عنده؟يعني تطلع
+
+378
+00:30:20,950 --> 00:30:24,950
+عندك ال gate أحسن ما تطلعش في ال exam، يعني يا
+
+379
+00:30:24,950 --> 00:30:31,310
+بنات أنا intentionally في ال multiple choice عند
+
+380
+00:30:31,310 --> 00:30:34,770
+ال .. يعني بقدر أعرف أن وين إمكانية تخطأ في القانة
+
+381
+00:30:34,770 --> 00:30:38,510
+الحاسبة، فلاحظوا يعني أنا كنت أمر في الامتحان،
+
+382
+00:30:38,510 --> 00:30:42,900
+ماعرفش مين سألنا بالبنات بدون إحراجفجدت ليه بيطلع
+
+383
+00:30:42,900 --> 00:30:46,480
+جوابين في ال .. okay yes في جوابين أكيد في جوابين
+
+384
+00:30:46,480 --> 00:30:49,800
+أقولك كمان في أربع أجوبة و الأربع أجوبة هيطلعوا
+
+385
+00:30:49,800 --> 00:30:52,620
+معاكي في الأقل الحاسبة لأنه أنا بعرف وين احنا
+
+386
+00:30:52,620 --> 00:30:56,420
+تغلطي و ده ليش احنا يعني حاطين multiple choice مش
+
+387
+00:30:56,420 --> 00:31:01,740
+معقول انا مثلا أحطلك خمسين مثلا أجي أقول مثلا x
+
+388
+00:31:01,740 --> 00:31:06,360
+divided by y minus one okay
+
+389
+00:31:08,030 --> 00:31:11,850
+احتمالات الخطأ ان انا هستعمل x-1 على y هذا خطأ
+
+390
+00:31:11,850 --> 00:31:19,390
+هتصير x على y okay بدون ما هي ايه اترحل one
+
+391
+00:31:19,390 --> 00:31:24,450
+وبالتالي كل ال possibilities انا هاخدها بالازبارة
+
+392
+00:31:24,450 --> 00:31:28,370
+حطولا كليها بال multiple choice بالظبط ايش ما
+
+393
+00:31:28,370 --> 00:31:30,570
+تجاوبيها هتلاقيها موجودة بال multiple choice ايه
+
+394
+00:31:30,570 --> 00:31:36,250
+صار معاكي هيكلأنه لو احنا في صف رابع ابتدائي
+
+395
+00:31:36,250 --> 00:31:42,430
+قالولنا القسم أولى صح ولا لأ فخلصي هذه يلا بعدين
+
+396
+00:31:42,430 --> 00:31:47,990
+خلصي هذه هو حسب ما انت بتعرفي هذه المشكلة في حد
+
+397
+00:31:47,990 --> 00:31:48,970
+عنده سؤال يا بنات؟
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/QaNf2A12dkI_raw.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/QaNf2A12dkI_raw.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..c2aefe4d4398598cd899efedac95b1200bf71975
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/QaNf2A12dkI_raw.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,2092 @@
+1
+00:00:22,270 --> 00:00:27,930
+Okay طبعا السبوع الفات حكينا عن اللي هو chapter
+
+2
+00:00:27,930 --> 00:00:33,250
+one، مظبوط؟ في حد يذكرني إيش الموضوع كان chapter
+
+3
+00:00:33,250 --> 00:00:34,210
+one؟
+
+4
+00:00:38,850 --> 00:00:43,690
+Okay اللي هو investment environments يعني ال .. ال
+
+5
+00:00:43,690 --> 00:00:46,410
+.. ال chapter فات احنا حكينا عن investment
+
+6
+00:00:46,410 --> 00:00:49,990
+environments اللي هو البيئة الاستثمارية و حكينا في
+
+7
+00:00:49,990 --> 00:00:53,250
+البيئة الاستثمارية لازم نحكي الفرق بين ال real
+
+8
+00:00:53,250 --> 00:00:57,030
+assets و ال financial assets و حكينا العلاقة بين
+
+9
+00:00:57,030 --> 00:00:59,770
+ال financial markets و ال economy و العلاقة بين
+
+10
+00:00:59,770 --> 00:01:09,410
+السوق والمال و ال economy و حكينا عن ال ..العائد
+
+11
+00:01:09,410 --> 00:01:14,010
+المخاطر وحكينا عن كفاءة السوق هذا المواضيع ركزنا
+
+12
+00:01:14,010 --> 00:01:18,090
+عليها بال .. بال chapter one بناء على فهم كل
+
+13
+00:01:18,090 --> 00:01:21,350
+chapter one في اللي هو ال assignment اللي هو
+
+14
+00:01:21,350 --> 00:01:23,690
+question one ال question one هو اللي علاقة بال
+
+15
+00:01:23,690 --> 00:01:27,210
+chapter one خليني بس أعطيكوا how to .. to handle
+
+16
+00:01:27,210 --> 00:01:30,410
+question one السؤال بيحكي in the light of chapter
+
+17
+00:01:30,410 --> 00:01:34,250
+one اللي هو ال investment environmentdescribe the
+
+18
+00:01:34,250 --> 00:01:37,010
+investment environment in Palestine Authority area
+
+19
+00:01:37,010 --> 00:01:42,110
+حسب فهمكم لل chapter one بدنا نطبق chapter one على
+
+20
+00:01:42,110 --> 00:01:47,230
+Palestine Authority Area يعني أخدنا احنا المواضيع
+
+21
+00:01:47,230 --> 00:01:50,630
+اللي حكينا فيها باجي بال Palestine Authority to
+
+22
+00:01:50,630 --> 00:01:54,590
+discuss the investment environment أول إشي بنحكي
+
+23
+00:01:54,590 --> 00:01:58,130
+اللي هو السؤال الأول مرتبط فيها اللي هو ال real
+
+24
+00:01:58,130 --> 00:02:01,380
+asset و ال financial assetبدنا نشوف إيش فيه real
+
+25
+00:02:01,380 --> 00:02:04,100
+assets متوفرة في مناطق السلطة الفلسطينية وشو في
+
+26
+00:02:04,100 --> 00:02:08,280
+عنده financial assets بدنا نعملهم listing ونشرح
+
+27
+00:02:08,280 --> 00:02:10,860
+اللي موجود بس اللي موجود ماعناش علاقة باللي مش
+
+28
+00:02:10,860 --> 00:02:16,520
+موجود يعني إشي مثلا treasury bills مثلا مش موجودة
+
+29
+00:02:16,520 --> 00:02:20,300
+عندنا فمافي داعي أنه أنا أحكي عنها okay يعني بدنا
+
+30
+00:02:20,300 --> 00:02:24,900
+نعرف إيش ال financial assets وإيش ال real assets
+
+31
+00:02:24,900 --> 00:02:28,040
+available in the Palestinian Authority هذا واحد
+
+32
+00:02:28,040 --> 00:02:33,430
+بعدينبدنا نعمل فرق بيناتهم from the palestinian
+
+33
+00:02:33,430 --> 00:02:36,470
+point of view من وجه النظر الموجودة في الأراضي
+
+34
+00:02:36,470 --> 00:02:40,390
+الفلسطينية بعدين نحكي عن ال characteristics تبعتهم
+
+35
+00:02:40,390 --> 00:02:44,250
+و نحكي عن ال competition نحكي مثلا على ال
+
+36
+00:02:44,250 --> 00:02:46,870
+efficiency هل السوق الفلسطيني efficient ولا مش
+
+37
+00:02:46,870 --> 00:02:51,610
+efficient okay و نحكي على ال risk and returnهذا
+
+38
+00:02:51,610 --> 00:02:54,730
+المفروض احنا نحكي فيه ب chapter one مش هيكون صعب
+
+39
+00:02:54,730 --> 00:02:58,870
+سهل بس بحتاج ان انتوا شوية تقرأوا في .. في هذا
+
+40
+00:02:58,870 --> 00:03:03,030
+الموضوع و اذا انتوا محتاجوا .. محتاجين مساعدة او
+
+41
+00:03:03,030 --> 00:03:06,850
+more details في الساعات المكتبية ممكن تيجوا لأكتر
+
+42
+00:03:06,850 --> 00:03:12,750
+توضيح okay نرجع ل chapter two ال link بين chapter
+
+43
+00:03:12,750 --> 00:03:19,040
+one و chapter two انه احنا ب chapter one أخدناإنه
+
+44
+00:03:19,040 --> 00:03:23,900
+financial assets are classified into classes and
+
+45
+00:03:23,900 --> 00:03:27,080
+we give a brief about these classes حكينا إنه ال
+
+46
+00:03:27,080 --> 00:03:31,980
+financial assets الأصول المالية لها classes يعني
+
+47
+00:03:31,980 --> 00:03:36,460
+عبارة عن families عبارة عن مجموعات فاحنا مهمتنا
+
+48
+00:03:36,460 --> 00:03:40,390
+هذه المجموعات نبدأ نفصل فيها في في chapter twoيعني
+
+49
+00:03:40,390 --> 00:03:44,370
+chapter one احنا عطينا brief اختصار في chapter one
+
+50
+00:03:44,370 --> 00:03:51,210
+راح نروح بتفاصيل اللي هو ال asset classes اذا احنا
+
+51
+00:03:51,210 --> 00:03:55,230
+فهمنا ال asset classes بنقدر ان احنا نقول احنا
+
+52
+00:03:55,230 --> 00:03:58,970
+فهمنا كتير من أدوات الاستثمار وهذا كتير الفصل
+
+53
+00:03:58,970 --> 00:04:03,130
+بساعدكم كمان تستطيعوا تجاوبوا على اللي هو السؤال
+
+54
+00:04:03,130 --> 00:04:03,450
+الأول
+
+55
+00:04:06,310 --> 00:04:12,410
+Okay فى حد عنده سؤال قال ما نبدأ فى .. طيب نبدأ
+
+56
+00:04:12,410 --> 00:04:19,090
+بسم الله is on chapter two asset classes and
+
+57
+00:04:19,090 --> 00:04:22,430
+financial instruments ال asset classes اللى حكينا
+
+58
+00:04:22,430 --> 00:04:27,530
+عندهم اللى هو عند money market و عند ال capital
+
+59
+00:04:27,530 --> 00:04:31,350
+market فى عند ال bonds فى عند ال equity okay هدول
+
+60
+00:04:31,350 --> 00:04:34,070
+هم ال asset classes فاكرين المرة الفاترة لما حكينا
+
+61
+00:04:34,070 --> 00:04:34,570
+عن ال ..
+
+62
+00:04:39,660 --> 00:04:47,480
+stocks وحكينا على ال bonds okay فهذا بالأساس أننا
+
+63
+00:04:47,480 --> 00:04:54,720
+نقسم أصل classes ل equity و debits او stocks و
+
+64
+00:04:54,720 --> 00:04:57,540
+bonds هذه واحدة من ال classifications في ناس
+
+65
+00:04:57,540 --> 00:05:02,480
+بيعملوا تقسيم آخر money markets و capital markets
+
+66
+00:05:06,060 --> 00:05:12,180
+السوق النقدي والسوق الرقسمالي طبعا أغلب التصنيفات
+
+67
+00:05:12,180 --> 00:05:15,080
+.. أغلب التصنيفات بتعتمد على ال money market و ال
+
+68
+00:05:15,080 --> 00:05:18,020
+capital market و احنا هنروح نفصل في ال money
+
+69
+00:05:18,020 --> 00:05:21,100
+market و ال capital market طبعا بالنسبة لل stocks
+
+70
+00:05:21,100 --> 00:05:27,400
+و ال bonds هم بيقعوا تحت ال capital market ليش
+
+71
+00:05:27,400 --> 00:05:30,040
+بيقعوا تحت ال capital market لأنه long term هنيجي
+
+72
+00:05:30,040 --> 00:05:34,840
+نفصل واحدة واحدة okay نبدأ بأول واحدة
+
+73
+00:05:40,270 --> 00:05:42,410
+ال acid classes في عند ال money markets
+
+74
+00:05:42,410 --> 00:05:46,130
+instruments في عندى أدوات مالية يتم تدولها في
+
+75
+00:05:46,130 --> 00:05:50,210
+السوق النخدي money market بيسموه سوق نخدي ليش
+
+76
+00:05:50,210 --> 00:05:54,450
+سميناها سوق نخدي لإن السوق قصير أجل سوق إيش ماله؟
+
+77
+00:05:54,450 --> 00:05:58,270
+قصير أجل لو مثلا معاكم مية دولار رايحين تصرفوها
+
+78
+00:05:58,270 --> 00:06:03,630
+مقاومة الشاكل تصرفوها على المكان فبيسميها ده سوق
+
+79
+00:06:03,630 --> 00:06:07,850
+ماله money market money market سوق نخدي تمام؟
+
+80
+00:06:10,490 --> 00:06:12,950
+وفيها ان ال capital market instruments ال capital
+
+81
+00:06:12,950 --> 00:06:17,930
+market instruments هو سوق طويل أجل okay يعني بيمتد
+
+82
+00:06:17,930 --> 00:06:21,450
+الاستثمار فيه لأكتر من سنة ال money market هو
+
+83
+00:06:21,450 --> 00:06:24,050
+استثمار لأقل من سنة ال capital market بيكون
+
+84
+00:06:24,050 --> 00:06:27,530
+استثمار لأكتر من سنة ال capital market بيشمل ال
+
+85
+00:06:27,530 --> 00:06:29,770
+bonds ال equity securities و ال derivative
+
+86
+00:06:29,770 --> 00:06:32,770
+securities طبعا احنا عطناكم brief على كل واحدة من
+
+87
+00:06:32,770 --> 00:06:38,540
+هدول طبعا هنروح تفاصيل أكتر هكون في ال chapterOkay
+
+88
+00:06:38,540 --> 00:06:43,140
+كمان مرة يعني ال money market هو سوق قصير أجل okay
+
+89
+00:06:43,140 --> 00:06:47,740
+أقل من سنة ال capital market هو سوق طويل أجل و هو
+
+90
+00:06:47,740 --> 00:06:51,040
+أكبر من سنة إيش يعني أقل من سنة و أكبر من سنة يعني
+
+91
+00:06:51,040 --> 00:06:54,360
+إذا أنا بدي تمويل قصير أجل بروح ع ال money market
+
+92
+00:06:54,360 --> 00:06:57,700
+إذا أنا بدي تمويل طويل أجل بروح ع ال capital
+
+93
+00:06:57,700 --> 00:07:02,810
+marketيعني بدي سندات لمدة عشر سنوات بروحش على ال
+
+94
+00:07:02,810 --> 00:07:04,950
+.. على ال .. على ال money market بروح على ال
+
+95
+00:07:04,950 --> 00:07:08,490
+capital market بدي أسهم طبعا الأسهم هي عبارة عن
+
+96
+00:07:08,490 --> 00:07:12,170
+أدوات ملكية طويلة الأجل بروح على ال capital market
+
+97
+00:07:12,170 --> 00:07:16,670
+derivative securities قلنا إنه هي اشتقت من ال ..
+
+98
+00:07:16,670 --> 00:07:23,690
+ال .. من ال capital market okay إذا في حد ماعندهوش
+
+99
+00:07:23,690 --> 00:07:25,990
+وضوح ال money market و ال capital market إيش
+
+100
+00:07:25,990 --> 00:07:28,190
+الفرقات مناتهم okay
+
+101
+00:07:36,920 --> 00:07:41,160
+the money markets sub sector of the fixed income
+
+102
+00:07:41,160 --> 00:07:45,100
+markets من أحد ميزات ال money markets أنه هو
+
+103
+00:07:45,100 --> 00:07:51,420
+بيعطيني عائد ثابت أو دخل ثابت okay يعني احنا بندرج
+
+104
+00:07:51,420 --> 00:07:56,180
+العوائد اللي في ال money market في عوائد ثابتةوإيش
+
+105
+00:07:56,180 --> 00:08:00,380
+كمان securities are short term قصيرة أجر اللي هو
+
+106
+00:08:00,380 --> 00:08:06,400
+حكيناها أقل من سنة طيب liquids سائلة إيش معناه
+
+107
+00:08:06,400 --> 00:08:09,220
+liquid؟ تحويلها لأموال نقدية سهولة تحويلها لأموال
+
+108
+00:08:09,220 --> 00:08:12,140
+نقدية بالظبط سهولة تحويلها لأموال نقدية يعني مثلا
+
+109
+00:08:12,140 --> 00:08:16,210
+لو أنت معاكي مية دولار بجابتكبتعاني لما تحوليها
+
+110
+00:08:16,210 --> 00:08:20,350
+لشكل نقضية بسرعة طب لو عندك وديعة في ال bank برضه
+
+111
+00:08:20,350 --> 00:08:23,850
+سهل ان انت تحوليها ل cash لنقضية لو معاكي check
+
+112
+00:08:23,850 --> 00:08:28,590
+قصير أجل check طبعا backed by the bank انه مدعوم
+
+113
+00:08:28,590 --> 00:08:33,170
+ويله ضمانات سهل ان انت تحوليه لنقضية okay هنيجي
+
+114
+00:08:33,170 --> 00:08:37,390
+برضه في تفاصيل low risk مخاطرة مخافظة مافيش فيها
+
+115
+00:08:37,390 --> 00:08:42,260
+مخاطر عاليةand often have large denominations
+
+116
+00:08:42,260 --> 00:08:45,860
+large denominations يعني إلها مضاعفات كتير يعني
+
+117
+00:08:45,860 --> 00:08:48,840
+مثلا مية دولار ألف دولار عشر تلاف دولار و هكذا
+
+118
+00:08:48,840 --> 00:08:56,040
+okay إذا كوان مرة ال money market بتتميز إنه قصيرة
+
+119
+00:08:56,040 --> 00:09:00,380
+أجال liquid low risk and often have large
+
+120
+00:09:00,380 --> 00:09:01,080
+denominations
+
+121
+00:09:03,730 --> 00:09:06,510
+money markets, voucher funds allow individual to
+
+122
+00:09:06,510 --> 00:09:09,470
+access the money markets ال .. الكويس في ال money
+
+123
+00:09:09,470 --> 00:09:11,950
+markets because it deal with small amount of money
+
+124
+00:09:11,950 --> 00:09:15,610
+and short term so investors can access the voucher
+
+125
+00:09:15,610 --> 00:09:20,530
+funds يعني بيقدروا مثلا زي ما حكينا ال chapter
+
+126
+00:09:20,530 --> 00:09:23,950
+الفات .. chapter الفات أنه لو معاك 100 دولار بتقدر
+
+127
+00:09:23,950 --> 00:09:26,770
+تدخل في صناديخ الاستثمار and you can easily
+
+128
+00:09:26,770 --> 00:09:30,730
+liquidate at anytime يعني بنقدر نحولها لنخزية على
+
+129
+00:09:30,730 --> 00:09:34,930
+أي وجهة إحنا بنحتاجهافهذه برضه ال .. ال .. الكويس
+
+130
+00:09:34,930 --> 00:09:38,090
+بال money market أعطيكم مثال بسيط خلينا نفهم مثال
+
+131
+00:09:38,090 --> 00:09:41,270
+بسيط و نشوف كيف .. how we can use the money
+
+132
+00:09:41,270 --> 00:09:52,370
+markets كيف ممكن احنا نستخدم ال money markets لو
+
+133
+00:09:52,370 --> 00:09:59,430
+أجينا .. هذا عندنا مثال هذه ال assets وهذه ال
+
+134
+00:09:59,430 --> 00:10:08,870
+liabilities okayلو احنا حكينا عندي cash 300 300$
+
+135
+00:10:08,870 --> 00:10:16,010
+يعني عندي ال cash 300$ وعندي
+
+136
+00:10:16,010 --> 00:10:25,210
+ال liabilities short term liabilities 170
+
+137
+00:10:25,210 --> 00:10:28,830
+short
+
+138
+00:10:28,830 --> 00:10:33,960
+term liabilities التزاماتOkay التزامات خسرت أجل
+
+139
+00:10:33,960 --> 00:10:40,340
+مين بتطلعولي على ال cash و تطلعولي على ال short
+
+140
+00:10:40,340 --> 00:10:42,960
+term liabilities لو احنا بدنا نفترض بس هدول عندي
+
+141
+00:10:42,960 --> 00:10:46,080
+موجودين بال current assets يعني هنا عندي fixed
+
+142
+00:10:46,080 --> 00:10:53,920
+assets وعندي هنا اللي هو equity لنفترض
+
+143
+00:10:53,920 --> 00:10:58,320
+بس الحسابات الرئيسية الموجودة إيش بتلاحظوا ال cash
+
+144
+00:10:59,270 --> 00:11:02,330
+ليش العجز؟ ال cash تلاتمية دولار وال short
+
+145
+00:11:02,330 --> 00:11:06,830
+liabilities مية وسبعين يعني في فائد في فائد مش عجز
+
+146
+00:11:06,830 --> 00:11:11,550
+فائد كتير يعني انا لو بدأ أحسب نسبة سيولها نسبة
+
+147
+00:11:11,550 --> 00:11:15,270
+سيولها عالية إذا أخدتوها من الإدارة المالية يعني
+
+148
+00:11:15,270 --> 00:11:18,770
+لو أنا بدأ أحسب نسبة سيولها بنحكي تلاتمية على مية
+
+149
+00:11:18,770 --> 00:11:25,330
+وسبعين صح؟ بتطلع عالية نسبة سيولها طيب أمام هذه
+
+150
+00:11:25,330 --> 00:11:30,560
+الحالة مدام أنا عندي فائدنقدي يعني لو أنا بدأ أسد
+
+151
+00:11:30,560 --> 00:11:34,140
+الالتزامات بحتاج فقط مية و سبعين دولار عشان أسد
+
+152
+00:11:34,140 --> 00:11:38,060
+الالتزامات صح؟ و بزيد كام معايا؟ مية و تلاتين
+
+153
+00:11:38,060 --> 00:11:42,720
+دولار طب احنا ليش احنا بندوس استثمار؟ لماذا نخلي
+
+154
+00:11:42,720 --> 00:11:46,020
+تلاتمية دولار عندي cash و أنا فقط محتاج مية و
+
+155
+00:11:46,020 --> 00:11:50,320
+سبعين؟ زي ما هي الحالة موجودة هذه طب إيش ممكن
+
+156
+00:11:50,320 --> 00:11:55,580
+أسوي؟ أعمل استثمار استثمار قصير أجن استثمار إيش؟
+
+157
+00:11:55,580 --> 00:12:06,040
+قصير أجنمثلا باجي بحكي okay انا بحتاج 170 بدل
+
+158
+00:12:06,040 --> 00:12:12,720
+ما اخلي 170 بخلي مثلا منهم 200 دولار هدول cash حتى
+
+159
+00:12:12,720 --> 00:12:16,480
+لو انا احتاجت اسد ال 170 بستطيع احسدها من وين؟ من
+
+160
+00:12:16,480 --> 00:12:21,440
+ال cash طب اداش ضال؟ 100 دولار ال 100 دولار بروح
+
+161
+00:12:21,440 --> 00:12:26,880
+مثلا ممكن اروح اوضعها في بنكمثلا أعمل استثمار في
+
+162
+00:12:26,880 --> 00:12:31,760
+البنك الإسلامي مثلا لمدة ست شهور استثمار متخصص أو
+
+163
+00:12:31,760 --> 00:12:36,260
+أعمل مثلا وديعة أو CD في في البنك لمدة تلات شهور
+
+164
+00:12:36,260 --> 00:12:45,080
+okay مثلا deposit طبعا
+
+165
+00:12:45,080 --> 00:12:49,960
+اللي هو أفضل الصيغة الأولى لما كان عندي 300$ cash
+
+166
+00:12:51,270 --> 00:12:54,550
+ولا صيغة تانى لما كان عندى 200 دولار و 100 deposit
+
+167
+00:12:54,550 --> 00:13:00,390
+ايوة ال 100 دولار هاخد عليها اش هاخد عليها ربح او
+
+168
+00:13:00,390 --> 00:13:07,350
+عاقد بينما ال cash العاقد تبعه اش zero فهذا السبب
+
+169
+00:13:07,350 --> 00:13:12,190
+انه احنا بندخل فى ال money markets كم عامة هلأ
+
+170
+00:13:12,190 --> 00:13:16,550
+نرجع للاصل كان عندى 300 دولار صح؟
+
+171
+00:13:19,870 --> 00:13:23,550
+ال liabilities التزامعت علينا هلأ بأسوأ الظروف لو
+
+172
+00:13:23,550 --> 00:13:26,390
+أنا بدأ أسد ال liabilities بحتاج مية و سبعين دولار
+
+173
+00:13:26,390 --> 00:13:32,350
+من الأصول المتداولة صح؟ صح مظبوط؟ مظبوط طيب إذا
+
+174
+00:13:32,350 --> 00:13:35,110
+أنا مية و سبعين دولار أخدتهم من التلاتمية تلاتمية
+
+175
+00:13:35,110 --> 00:13:40,790
+ناقص مية و سبعين كم؟ مية و تلاتين إذا أنا في عندي
+
+176
+00:13:40,790 --> 00:13:44,530
+زيادة مية و تلاتين دولار هدول المية و تلاتين دولار
+
+177
+00:13:44,530 --> 00:13:50,080
+أنا مش مستثمرهمto be in safe side خلّينا بدل ما
+
+178
+00:13:50,080 --> 00:13:54,480
+نحفظ بمية و سبعين نحفظ بميتين مثلا هاي احتفظنا
+
+179
+00:13:54,480 --> 00:14:00,100
+بميتين والمية اللي ضالة ات وين سوى اوديها نعملها
+
+180
+00:14:00,100 --> 00:14:06,240
+investment ايش نعملها investment مثلا نروح نحطها
+
+181
+00:14:06,240 --> 00:14:09,220
+.. نحطها مثلا استثمار متخصص بالبنك الإسلامي و
+
+182
+00:14:09,220 --> 00:14:11,620
+نحكيله منه احنا بدنا إياها استثمار لمدة تلات شهور
+
+183
+00:14:11,620 --> 00:14:16,470
+على مدة ست شهورOkay او مثلا نحطها وديعة في ال bank
+
+184
+00:14:16,470 --> 00:14:20,430
+نحكيلهم هذه الوديعة لمدة تلت شهور او ست شهور بحيث
+
+185
+00:14:20,430 --> 00:14:24,550
+لو احنا احتجناها you can liquidate it easily انه
+
+186
+00:14:24,550 --> 00:14:28,410
+احنا نقدر نعملها تسيل و نقدر نبيعها طيب هلأ بأسوأ
+
+187
+00:14:28,410 --> 00:14:33,110
+الظروف لو احنا احتجنا المية وسبعين بأسوأ الظروف
+
+188
+00:14:33,110 --> 00:14:38,850
+ايش هنسوي ال cash هدول هنغطي فيهم المية وسبعين
+
+189
+00:14:38,850 --> 00:14:43,110
+هيظل عندي كام؟تلاتين والمية دولار هذه اللي ال
+
+190
+00:14:43,110 --> 00:14:46,870
+deposit بعملها liquidation بطلع عندى مية و تلاتين
+
+191
+00:14:46,870 --> 00:14:50,790
+دولار وبالتالي انا في الحالة هذه استفدت انه انا
+
+192
+00:14:50,790 --> 00:14:55,110
+غطيت السيولة غطيت short term liabilities وفي نفس
+
+193
+00:14:55,110 --> 00:15:00,230
+اللحظة انا عملت investments okay هذا السبب اللى
+
+194
+00:15:00,230 --> 00:15:04,310
+بيخلنا ندخل في موضوع ال short term investments
+
+195
+00:15:04,310 --> 00:15:11,960
+يعني مثلالو الواحد معاه مثلا ألف دولار، هذه الألف
+
+196
+00:15:11,960 --> 00:15:15,120
+دولار طول السنة بعمل حسب يقول أنا ماجدداش مصاريف و
+
+197
+00:15:15,120 --> 00:15:18,900
+جامعة و اشي مثلا ست مائة دولار، فيضل أربعمائة
+
+198
+00:15:18,900 --> 00:15:23,460
+دولار هدول معاه زيادة، طب شو يسوي فيهم؟ هيعمل فيهم
+
+199
+00:15:23,460 --> 00:15:27,360
+short term investmentاستثمار خصير أجاري ممكن
+
+200
+00:15:27,360 --> 00:15:30,320
+يستثمر فيهم بأي من الأدوات اللي احنا هنحكي فيها
+
+201
+00:15:30,320 --> 00:15:36,740
+okay هذا السبب الرئيسي اللي احنا بندخل في short
+
+202
+00:15:36,740 --> 00:15:39,300
+term investments لما نحكي عن long term investments
+
+203
+00:15:39,300 --> 00:15:46,660
+هنحكي why we using long term investments okay طيب
+
+204
+00:15:49,120 --> 00:15:53,660
+بتتميز ال short term investment بتتميز انه هي low
+
+205
+00:15:53,660 --> 00:15:58,900
+risk مخاطرها مخفضة يعني لو انا هالوديعة هتحتاجتها
+
+206
+00:15:58,900 --> 00:16:04,040
+سهل جدا ان انا اعملها liquidation صحيح ممكن اخسر
+
+207
+00:16:04,040 --> 00:16:10,280
+عمولات بسيطة بس بالاخير مش هيكون في عندي خسارة
+
+208
+00:16:10,280 --> 00:16:16,520
+طبعا
+
+209
+00:16:16,520 --> 00:16:21,140
+هنا انال short term investment or short term
+
+210
+00:16:21,140 --> 00:16:26,600
+classes في ال money market احنا بنتعامل هدول اغلب
+
+211
+00:16:26,600 --> 00:16:29,500
+الاستثمارات في ال money market في الأسواق قصيرة
+
+212
+00:16:29,500 --> 00:16:33,740
+الأجل اللي هو repurchase agreements اتفاقية إعادة
+
+213
+00:16:33,740 --> 00:16:39,220
+الشراء okay repurchase agreements اتفاقية إعادة
+
+214
+00:16:39,220 --> 00:16:44,920
+الشراء بعدين a small denominations time deposit
+
+215
+00:16:44,920 --> 00:16:50,530
+ودائع قصيرة أجل بمبالغ بسيطةlarge nomination time
+
+216
+00:16:50,530 --> 00:16:56,570
+deposits ودائع قصير اجر لكن بمبالغ كبيرة treasury
+
+217
+00:16:56,570 --> 00:17:00,890
+bills ودولات خزينة commercial paper أوراق تجارية
+
+218
+00:17:00,890 --> 00:17:08,050
+saving deposits ودائع استثمارية أو ودائع الدخارو
+
+219
+00:17:08,050 --> 00:17:12,450
+آخر واحدة money market mutual funds اللي هو صندوق
+
+220
+00:17:12,450 --> 00:17:16,650
+استثمار قصير تأجل صندوق استثمار قصير تأجل يعني
+
+221
+00:17:16,650 --> 00:17:19,610
+مثلا صندوق استثمار قصير تأجل بتستثمر في ال .. في
+
+222
+00:17:19,610 --> 00:17:22,610
+العمل الصعب يعني بيعملوا صندوق استثمار زي المرة
+
+223
+00:17:22,610 --> 00:17:26,090
+الفأتات حكينا عليكم كل واحد بدفع 100 دولار و بروح
+
+224
+00:17:26,090 --> 00:17:29,770
+بنستثمر في ال .. مثلا في الجنيه السرليني كل واحد
+
+225
+00:17:29,770 --> 00:17:32,490
+مثلا بدفع 100 دولار بنروح بنجمحهم كلهم مع بعض و
+
+226
+00:17:32,490 --> 00:17:36,350
+نروح نستثمر مثلا باليوروعلى أساس إنه ممكن اليورو
+
+227
+00:17:36,350 --> 00:17:40,770
+في المستقبل يرتفع فهذا بيسميها صناديق استثمار
+
+228
+00:17:40,770 --> 00:17:45,750
+قصيرة أجل يعني قصيرة أجل نقدر نعمل نبيع الاستثمار
+
+229
+00:17:45,750 --> 00:17:53,370
+تبعنا خلال فترة زمانية قصيرة okay يعني زي مثلا لو
+
+230
+00:17:53,370 --> 00:17:58,230
+أنتوا البنات دخلتوا بجمعيات جمعية مثلا لمدة تلت
+
+231
+00:17:58,230 --> 00:18:02,090
+شهور قصيرة أجل لو دخل أربع عشرين واحد بالجمعية
+
+232
+00:18:02,090 --> 00:18:05,350
+بتصير طويلة أجلOkay بيصير طويلة الأجل فهذا الفرق
+
+233
+00:18:05,350 --> 00:18:12,390
+بين الطويلة الأجل وخاصية الأجل طبعا .. كمان مرة
+
+234
+00:18:12,390 --> 00:18:16,820
+Repurchase agreementsاتفاقية إعادة شراء small
+
+235
+00:18:16,820 --> 00:18:21,420
+denominations time deposits اللي هو ودائع قصيرة
+
+236
+00:18:21,420 --> 00:18:25,920
+أجل بمبالغ صغيرة بعدين البعديها ودائع طويلة أجل
+
+237
+00:18:25,920 --> 00:18:29,860
+بمبالغ كبيرة بعدين treasury bills وذنبات خزينة
+
+238
+00:18:29,860 --> 00:18:34,080
+commercial paper أوراق تجارية saving deposit ودائع
+
+239
+00:18:34,080 --> 00:18:38,040
+الدخارية money market mutual funds اللي هو صناديف
+
+240
+00:18:38,040 --> 00:18:43,120
+استثمار قصيرة أجل حندخل في تفاصيل واحدة واحدة
+
+241
+00:18:44,530 --> 00:18:47,730
+treasury bills ال treasury bills هي أذنات الخزينة
+
+242
+00:18:47,730 --> 00:18:53,550
+هذه أذنات الخزينة يتم إصدارها من قبل الحكومة
+
+243
+00:18:53,550 --> 00:18:57,850
+بيسموها treasury bills ال treasury معناها خزينة
+
+244
+00:18:57,850 --> 00:19:07,910
+bills أذنات هذه أذنات الخزينة بتحتاجها
+
+245
+00:19:07,910 --> 00:19:15,100
+الحكومة للتمويل النشاطات قصيرة الأجنبممكن تتبهان
+
+246
+00:19:15,100 --> 00:19:20,300
+شوية ال treasury bills هي بتحتاج الحكومة عشان تمول
+
+247
+00:19:20,300 --> 00:19:23,920
+نشاطاتها قصيرة الأجلة ممكن تاخد ثلاث شهور، أربع
+
+248
+00:19:23,920 --> 00:19:28,560
+شهور، ست شهور، تسعة شهور لاستثمارات قصيرة الأجلة
+
+249
+00:19:28,560 --> 00:19:32,240
+طبعا يتم إصدارها الحكومة لقوم الناس أو ال
+
+250
+00:19:32,240 --> 00:19:37,180
+companies بشراء هذه الأذنات الخزينة بتتميز low
+
+251
+00:19:37,180 --> 00:19:42,750
+riskمخاطرها risk free أو نحكي انه خالية من المخاطر
+
+252
+00:19:42,750 --> 00:19:47,930
+مش low risk كمان هي خالية من المخاطر و تصدر
+
+253
+00:19:47,930 --> 00:19:52,570
+بمضاعفات مثلا
+
+254
+00:19:52,570 --> 00:19:57,090
+ألف عشر تلاف و هكذا و تباق بخصم هذه ماعليهاش فائدة
+
+255
+00:19:57,090 --> 00:20:00,390
+اش ماعليها تباق بخصم هنشوف كيف تباق بخصم
+
+256
+00:20:03,760 --> 00:20:06,380
+طبعا مش شرط بس الحكومة الأمريكية تصدر هذا النوع من
+
+257
+00:20:06,380 --> 00:20:13,000
+الأذنات اي حكومة .. اي حكومة ذات ملأة اقتصادية
+
+258
+00:20:13,000 --> 00:20:17,360
+طبعا؟ ذات ملأة ايش؟ يعني في حكومات مابيقدروش
+
+259
+00:20:17,360 --> 00:20:20,880
+يعملوا treasury bills اه يعني بيكونوا ناس تعبانية
+
+260
+00:20:20,880 --> 00:20:24,240
+شوية فما بيستطعوش ان هم يصدروا treasury bills
+
+261
+00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:33,700
+الحكومة بدأت تكون ملتزمة أمام الجمهور بيدفع قيمة
+
+262
+00:20:33,700 --> 00:20:36,980
+هذه ال treasury bills طيب متى تلجأ الحكومة لإصدار
+
+263
+00:20:36,980 --> 00:20:40,680
+ال treasury bills سؤال بسيط هيك لنشوف إمكانياتك
+
+264
+00:20:40,680 --> 00:20:46,460
+بالاقتصاد متى تحتاج الحكومة لل treasury bills؟ كيف
+
+265
+00:20:46,460 --> 00:20:54,660
+يعني أعزف بيزنية؟ و متى بيصير؟ بيزنيتش؟ الحكومة
+
+266
+00:20:54,660 --> 00:20:56,760
+متى بتكون بحتاجة فلوس؟
+
+267
+00:20:59,980 --> 00:21:06,120
+ماش بياخدوا درائب؟ طيب ماش بتمولوا من الدرائب؟
+
+268
+00:21:06,120 --> 00:21:14,540
+ايوة اذا كان عندك taxes ال taxes revenues ال
+
+269
+00:21:14,540 --> 00:21:24,380
+taxes is less than the consumption the
+
+270
+00:21:24,380 --> 00:21:29,040
+governmental consumptionفإذا ال taxes ما بتغطيش ال
+
+271
+00:21:29,040 --> 00:21:31,980
+governmental consumption بحنا نحتاج نتدين الحكومة
+
+272
+00:21:31,980 --> 00:21:41,500
+بتحتاج تتدين okay لكن لما يكون العكس ال taxes is
+
+273
+00:21:41,500 --> 00:21:47,560
+greater than the governmental consumption يعني
+
+274
+00:21:47,560 --> 00:21:52,340
+الانفاق الحكومي في الحالة هذه احنا the government
+
+275
+00:21:52,340 --> 00:21:56,890
+is lendingفي الحالة التانية ال government lend في
+
+276
+00:21:56,890 --> 00:22:00,750
+الحالة الأولى ب government borrow انعيدك أول مرة
+
+277
+00:22:00,750 --> 00:22:04,870
+إذا كانت درائب اللي بيحصلوها من الناس أعلى من
+
+278
+00:22:04,870 --> 00:22:07,410
+الإنفاقات معناه الكلام هيكون عندهم زيادة صح؟
+
+279
+00:22:07,410 --> 00:22:12,210
+surplus إذا كانت درائب أعلى من الإنفاقات في الحالة
+
+280
+00:22:12,210 --> 00:22:17,190
+هذا هيكون surplus صح؟ يعني فائض معناه الكلام
+
+281
+00:22:17,190 --> 00:22:20,210
+بيقدروا يعملوا lending lending يعني يخردوا الناس
+
+282
+00:22:20,210 --> 00:22:26,050
+يعطوا الناس مصاريطب لو كان العكس لو كان ال taxes
+
+283
+00:22:26,050 --> 00:22:29,930
+الدرائب ما بتغطيش ال consumption معنى الكلام أنه
+
+284
+00:22:29,930 --> 00:22:34,830
+هنا بيكون عندهم deficit اللي هو عجز في الحالة هذه
+
+285
+00:22:34,830 --> 00:22:41,890
+اللي ال government بدها تخترد إذا كان ال deficit
+
+286
+00:22:41,890 --> 00:22:46,630
+قصير
+
+287
+00:22:46,630 --> 00:22:54,140
+فبنصدر treasury billsإذا كان العجل طويل الأجل
+
+288
+00:22:54,140 --> 00:22:59,500
+فبنصدر ثاندات حكومية okay هذا السبب بيخلي الحكومات
+
+289
+00:22:59,500 --> 00:23:06,180
+تلجأ لل treasury bills okay
+
+290
+00:23:06,180 --> 00:23:10,240
+يعني
+
+291
+00:23:10,240 --> 00:23:14,540
+الحكومة مابتروحش عن ناس تقولهم please اعطوني مصاري
+
+292
+00:23:14,540 --> 00:23:18,860
+لما بيقولهم مابحتاجوا مصاريبصدروا treasury bills و
+
+293
+00:23:18,860 --> 00:23:21,500
+الناس بتروح بتشتري هذه ال treasury bills و بتدفع
+
+294
+00:23:21,500 --> 00:23:25,900
+للحكومة لفلوس و تبايع ب discount هنشوف كيف تبايع ب
+
+295
+00:23:25,900 --> 00:23:38,220
+discount تبايع ب discount يعني تبايع بخصم طبعا
+
+296
+00:23:38,220 --> 00:23:42,360
+لما بتبايع بخصم لما تقرد في السوق المالي في إنا
+
+297
+00:23:42,360 --> 00:23:50,730
+bid price و ask priceسعر شراء و سعر بيع bid و ask
+
+298
+00:23:50,730 --> 00:23:57,970
+bid و ask bid و ask يعني سعر بيع و سعر شراء و
+
+299
+00:23:57,970 --> 00:24:04,010
+هناخد مثال مع بعض نشوف ال bid و ال ask عندكوا في
+
+300
+00:24:04,010 --> 00:24:11,750
+صفحة عطيني اللي .. اوه سمحتلي في صفحة تسعة و عشرين
+
+301
+00:24:12,780 --> 00:24:19,960
+في عندكم اللي هو figure 2.1 figure 2.1 في صفحه 29
+
+302
+00:24:19,960 --> 00:24:25,480
+اتفتحتوا صفحه 29؟ في صفحه 29 في عندنا ال treasury
+
+303
+00:24:25,480 --> 00:24:28,260
+bills زي ما انتوا شايفين هان treasury bills okay
+
+304
+00:24:28,260 --> 00:24:34,720
+في عندنا ال maturity ال maturity يعني فترة
+
+305
+00:24:34,720 --> 00:24:39,960
+الاستحقاق متى يتم استحقاق أذن الخزينة بعدين عندنا
+
+306
+00:24:39,960 --> 00:24:44,840
+ال bid price سعر شراءأو سعر العرض و ال ask price
+
+307
+00:24:44,840 --> 00:24:52,560
+سعر الذائق it changed مكتوب CHG و ال ask yield
+
+308
+00:24:52,560 --> 00:25:00,580
+اللي هو العائد على الشراء لو أجينا ناخد أول أذن
+
+309
+00:25:00,580 --> 00:25:08,320
+الخزينة هنشوفه احنا .. نشوفه مع بعض في chapter ..
+
+310
+00:25:08,320 --> 00:25:10,340
+chapter two
+
+311
+00:25:21,530 --> 00:25:35,010
+لو شوف .. روحنا على صفحه 29 هذه صفحه 29 okay الكل
+
+312
+00:25:35,010 --> 00:25:40,890
+شايف هيك؟ طبعا هذا هي .. في سؤال هيجي عليه how ..
+
+313
+00:25:40,890 --> 00:25:43,410
+how to read the financial data كيف نقرأ البيانات
+
+314
+00:25:43,410 --> 00:25:48,470
+نتطلع على treasury bills هذا
+
+315
+00:25:48,470 --> 00:25:55,100
+ال maturityمتى يستحق؟ بيستحق ب 22 أكتوبر 2009 okay
+
+316
+00:25:55,100 --> 00:26:02,120
+days to maturity كام متبقي لإنه ينتهي؟ طلع و قرأه
+
+317
+00:26:02,120 --> 00:26:09,460
+ليها eight days طيب ال bid price 0055
+
+318
+00:26:09,460 --> 00:26:16,420
+هذه percentage هذه نسبة مقوية يعني
+
+319
+00:26:16,420 --> 00:26:23,250
+معنى الكلام أنهيشتري .. ال customer .. ال investor
+
+320
+00:26:23,250 --> 00:26:29,930
+بشتري هان و ببيع هان okay يشتري و هنبيع .. هنيجي
+
+321
+00:26:29,930 --> 00:26:36,770
+ناخد تفاصيل طيب change .. unchanged يعني من آخر
+
+322
+00:26:37,640 --> 00:26:40,680
+حركة صارت على البيع والشراء ماصارش تغيير يعني هذا
+
+323
+00:26:40,680 --> 00:26:45,460
+سعر اليوم الماضي ماصارش تغيير لكن لو لاحظ مافي ال
+
+324
+00:26:45,460 --> 00:26:47,260
+.. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال ..
+
+325
+00:26:47,260 --> 00:26:47,600
+ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال
+
+326
+00:26:47,600 --> 00:26:47,640
+.. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال ..
+
+327
+00:26:47,640 --> 00:26:48,120
+ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال
+
+328
+00:26:48,120 --> 00:26:48,720
+.. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال ..
+
+329
+00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:49,220
+ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال
+
+330
+00:26:49,220 --> 00:26:52,400
+.. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال ..
+
+331
+00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:52,400
+ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال
+
+332
+00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:52,900
+.. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال ..
+
+333
+00:26:52,900 --> 00:26:52,900
+ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال
+
+334
+00:26:52,900 --> 00:26:58,400
+.. ال .. ال ..
+
+335
+00:26:58,400 --> 00:27:00,440
+ال
+
+336
+00:27:03,020 --> 00:27:08,540
+أخر حركة يعني مثلا لو أنا بدأ أقول أنه اليوم 22
+
+337
+00:27:08,540 --> 00:27:12,140
+أكتوبر 21 أكتوبر اللي هو اليوم القبل ماصارش تغير
+
+338
+00:27:12,140 --> 00:27:18,620
+فضلوا الأسعار no change, unchanged يعني مافيش تغير
+
+339
+00:27:18,620 --> 00:27:24,940
+هنا طب
+
+340
+00:27:24,940 --> 00:27:29,560
+أحنا بدأ نحسب كيف بيتم بيع الأذن الخزينة
+
+341
+00:27:32,180 --> 00:27:41,900
+لنفترض ان احنا قدر الخزينة زي ما انتوا شايفين لو
+
+342
+00:27:41,900 --> 00:27:44,640
+طلعنا في ال phase 2 yields in figure 2-1 are
+
+343
+00:27:44,640 --> 00:27:50,160
+reported using the bank discount نطلع
+
+344
+00:27:50,160 --> 00:27:50,700
+على المثال
+
+345
+00:27:54,030 --> 00:27:58,750
+نتطلع على اللي عندكم في الكتاب في واحد منهم is
+
+346
+00:27:58,750 --> 00:28:02,490
+highlighted شايفين highlighted اللي هو احنا بناخد
+
+347
+00:28:02,490 --> 00:28:05,570
+مثالنا عليه موجود عندكم بالكتاب highlighted okay
+
+348
+00:28:05,570 --> 00:28:09,770
+اللي هو عندنا November تسعة عشر تسعة ستة و تلاتين
+
+349
+00:28:09,770 --> 00:28:13,990
+يعني المتبقي له ستة و تلاتين يوم okay و ال bid
+
+350
+00:28:13,990 --> 00:28:16,950
+price و ال ask price و هذا ماصارش عليه unchanged
+
+351
+00:28:16,950 --> 00:28:22,490
+ماصارش عليه تغيير فمثلنا هيكون على هذا ال هذا ال
+
+352
+00:28:22,490 --> 00:28:27,700
+treasury billsاه how to read اللي هو احنا كيف نقرأ
+
+353
+00:28:27,700 --> 00:28:32,620
+البيانات هذه يعني نعيده كام مرة November تسعة عشر
+
+354
+00:28:32,620 --> 00:28:38,400
+تسعة okay عنا ال maturity ستة و تلاتين يوم
+
+355
+00:28:38,400 --> 00:28:46,140
+maturity وعنا ال bid price zero
+
+356
+00:28:46,140 --> 00:28:49,720
+five five وعنا ال ask
+
+357
+00:28:55,140 --> 00:29:05,840
+الو عندنا zero four three طيب ال
+
+358
+00:29:05,840 --> 00:29:09,480
+ask bid okay
+
+359
+00:29:09,480 --> 00:29:17,460
+okay
+
+360
+00:29:17,460 --> 00:29:21,860
+عندنا ال bid zero
+
+361
+00:29:21,860 --> 00:29:31,030
+five و zero four3 okay الكل معناه هيك طيب هذه 0.5
+
+362
+00:29:31,030 --> 00:29:36,450
+إيش معناها هذه نسبة الخصم اكتبوا عليها نسبة إيش ال
+
+363
+00:29:36,450 --> 00:29:44,050
+discount rate نسبة الخصم نسبة
+
+364
+00:29:44,050 --> 00:29:53,130
+خصم okay والتانية برضه نسبة خصم لو أنا عند مستثمر
+
+365
+00:29:53,130 --> 00:29:59,040
+إيه هيشتريمستثمر بديه يشتري السؤال الأول على أي
+
+366
+00:29:59,040 --> 00:30:06,160
+سعر بديه يشتري فكروا فيها و اعطوني جواب لو في
+
+367
+00:30:06,160 --> 00:30:13,260
+مستثمر بديه يشتري على أي سعر بديه يشتري ال
+
+368
+00:30:13,260 --> 00:30:21,400
+ask اذا
+
+369
+00:30:21,400 --> 00:30:24,960
+بديه يشتري على هذا السعرفي في السوق المالي زي ما
+
+370
+00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:30,860
+احنا شرحنا المرة الفاتة في طرفين في السوق في ال
+
+371
+00:30:30,860 --> 00:30:35,200
+investors و
+
+372
+00:30:35,200 --> 00:30:40,280
+في ال dealer انتبهوا
+
+373
+00:30:40,280 --> 00:30:44,340
+معانافي عندنا ال investor و في عندنا مين ال dealer
+
+374
+00:30:44,340 --> 00:30:47,060
+ال dealer معناه الوسيط لما احنا شرحنا ال chapter
+
+375
+00:30:47,060 --> 00:30:51,240
+فات انه مابيصيرش ان احنا واحد يروح to access
+
+376
+00:30:51,240 --> 00:30:53,700
+directly the financial market لازم to go through
+
+377
+00:30:53,700 --> 00:30:56,940
+the financial intermediaries لازم يروح من خلال
+
+378
+00:30:56,940 --> 00:31:03,000
+الوسطاء المالي طيب اذا هذا السعر مين اللي بيعرضه؟
+
+379
+00:31:03,000 --> 00:31:07,760
+انه واحد ال investor ولا ال dealer لأ هذا ال
+
+380
+00:31:07,760 --> 00:31:08,040
+dealer
+
+381
+00:31:11,350 --> 00:31:15,630
+إذا ال dealer offer this price بيعرض هذا السعر
+
+382
+00:31:15,630 --> 00:31:19,650
+طبعا ال investor له عينين and he observing this
+
+383
+00:31:19,650 --> 00:31:25,250
+price هو جاعة بشوفها الأسعار طبعا بشتري على هذا
+
+384
+00:31:25,250 --> 00:31:35,370
+السعر okay buy و sell على هذا السعر طبعا هذا السعر
+
+385
+00:31:35,370 --> 00:31:39,710
+هذا اسمها نسبة خصم و هذا اسمها نسبة خصم كيف نحولها
+
+386
+00:31:39,710 --> 00:31:40,110
+لسعر
+
+387
+00:31:44,330 --> 00:31:48,310
+100 من اللي حضر بيعرف كيف ان احنا نحضر او نحول من
+
+388
+00:31:48,310 --> 00:31:59,110
+النسبة هذه الى سعر okay طبعا،
+
+389
+00:31:59,110 --> 00:32:08,790
+قداش متبقى؟ قداش متبقى؟ طيب خلصنا بعدين
+
+390
+00:32:08,790 --> 00:32:16,230
+تعرف تحلي؟ اهفي حد بيعرف يحلوا الدولار؟ طيب خدوا
+
+391
+00:32:16,230 --> 00:32:20,790
+دقيقتين او تلات دقائق لحالكم جربوا لحالكم لحالكم
+
+392
+00:32:20,790 --> 00:32:27,510
+جربوا طبعا انا هحله بالاخير عشان اساعدكم ال bar
+
+393
+00:32:27,510 --> 00:32:32,610
+value لهذا ال bonds لهذا ال treasure bills القيمة
+
+394
+00:32:32,610 --> 00:32:38,110
+الإسلامية عشر تلاف دولار القيمة
+
+395
+00:32:38,110 --> 00:32:42,080
+الإسلامية عشر تلاف دولارأعطيتكوا ال bid و أعطيتكوا
+
+396
+00:32:42,080 --> 00:32:46,320
+ال ask بدي تعرفولي سعر the price of ask and the
+
+397
+00:32:46,320 --> 00:32:52,180
+price of bid يعني how much the investor will buy
+
+398
+00:32:53,280 --> 00:32:55,940
+and how much the investor will sell يعني لو
+
+399
+00:32:55,940 --> 00:32:59,500
+المستثمر بده يشتري بقداش و لو بده يبيع ايه بقداش
+
+400
+00:32:59,500 --> 00:33:03,200
+يعني كدهش بده يدفع دولارات لإن هذه المحطوطة في
+
+401
+00:33:03,200 --> 00:33:07,680
+السوق المالي محطوطة ايهاش نسب فعشان هيك لما انتوا
+
+402
+00:33:07,680 --> 00:33:11,100
+بتشوفوا المشروع الأخبارية بتشوفوا نسب تستغرب انه
+
+403
+00:33:11,100 --> 00:33:18,980
+هذه نص في المية و هذه نسب مالية و ليس رقم فاخدوا
+
+404
+00:33:18,980 --> 00:33:22,860
+تلت دقائق عشان تعرفوا كيف ممكن هذا تنحسب okay
+
+405
+00:33:26,060 --> 00:33:28,320
+ممكن تشتغلوا as a groups كمجموعات
+
+406
+00:33:56,350 --> 00:34:02,690
+طيب يعني في مجموعة حلقة صحلأ صح بين بيه اجملت
+
+407
+00:34:02,690 --> 00:34:06,470
+براتي حلوة؟ هم مدربين احنا مدربين احنا مدربين احنا
+
+408
+00:34:06,470 --> 00:34:11,010
+مش مدربين احنا مش مدربين احنا مدربين احنا مدربين
+
+409
+00:34:11,010 --> 00:34:11,010
+احنا مدربين احنا مدربين احنا مدربين احنا مدربين
+
+410
+00:34:11,010 --> 00:34:11,010
+احنا مدربين احنا مدربين احنا مدربين احنا مدربين
+
+411
+00:34:11,010 --> 00:34:11,350
+احنا مدربين احنا مدربين احنا مدربين احنا مدربين
+
+412
+00:34:11,350 --> 00:34:11,930
+احنا مدربين احنا مدربين احنا مدربين احنا مدربين
+
+413
+00:34:11,930 --> 00:34:18,530
+احنا مدربين احنا مدربين احنا مدربين احنا
+
+414
+00:34:18,530 --> 00:34:28,790
+مدربين احنا مدربين احنا م
+
+415
+00:34:29,890 --> 00:34:33,750
+احنا عندنا حلقة سعرين اللي هو السعر اللي بده يبيع
+
+416
+00:34:33,750 --> 00:34:38,130
+عليه الديلار اللي هو ال bed اللي هو سعر ال bed
+
+417
+00:34:38,130 --> 00:34:42,670
+فاحنا بما أنه نسبة خسن فأول حاجة بدنا نشوف اللي هو
+
+418
+00:34:42,670 --> 00:34:50,170
+الاستحقاق ال maturity بدنا نقسمها على اللي هو عدد
+
+419
+00:34:50,170 --> 00:34:54,670
+أيام السنة اللي هو تلاتين و ستين و بعدين نضربها
+
+420
+00:35:10,900 --> 00:35:13,340
+هنضربها في الساق اللي هو اللي بديش عليا البان
+
+421
+00:35:20,630 --> 00:35:26,530
+بعدين ال .. ال .. الراحة مابي بيطلع؟ اه
+
+422
+00:35:26,530 --> 00:35:41,490
+لو خمسة لرحالة؟
+
+423
+00:35:41,490 --> 00:35:52,260
+لا مش لأ حبت في ال ..بعدي هنا .. بيجيب
+
+424
+00:35:52,260 --> 00:35:56,660
+هذا .. بحب
+
+425
+00:35:56,660 --> 00:36:01,260
+شيء .. هو .. هيطلع رسمياسي
+
+426
+00:36:16,650 --> 00:36:20,530
+أخدنا بالاعتبار ال maturity date إذا هذا ال
+
+427
+00:36:20,530 --> 00:36:27,010
+maturity ضربناه في النسبة المقوية اللي هو ال bed
+
+428
+00:36:27,010 --> 00:36:35,930
+طلعنا الرقم طبعا هذا أول خطوة بعدين نقول عشر تلاف
+
+429
+00:36:35,930 --> 00:36:41,010
+ناقص نسبة الخاصة أو قيمة الخاصة تطلع هذا الرقم إذا
+
+430
+00:36:41,010 --> 00:36:48,990
+هذا ال bar valueمعقس الخصم قيمة الخصم او ال
+
+431
+00:36:48,990 --> 00:36:57,830
+discount ال bar value ناقص ال discount بطلع
+
+432
+00:36:57,830 --> 00:37:05,570
+السعر هذا طريقة للحل طريقة ثانية اللي هو ال bar
+
+433
+00:37:05,570 --> 00:37:11,230
+value هي طريقة ثانية للحل bar value ضرب نفتح
+
+434
+00:37:11,230 --> 00:37:21,930
+courseواحد ناقص نسبة الخسن discount ضرب
+
+435
+00:37:21,930 --> 00:37:31,370
+ال maturity ضرب ال maturity ال
+
+436
+00:37:31,370 --> 00:37:39,490
+bar value بتساوي كم؟ عشر تلاف ضرب واحد ناقص
+
+437
+00:37:41,890 --> 00:37:49,070
+discount rates اللي هو عندنا 005
+
+438
+00:37:49,070 --> 00:37:55,290
+ضرب 36
+
+439
+00:37:55,290 --> 00:38:03,030
+على 360 طبعا خدوا بالكوا هادي عملية لحال ضرب هذه
+
+440
+00:38:03,030 --> 00:38:07,370
+يلا اعملوها بسرعة طبقوا هذه عشان هاطلب منكوا
+
+441
+00:38:07,370 --> 00:38:12,300
+تعملوا العكس هذا ال bid بدنا نعمل ال askخلصوا ال
+
+442
+00:38:12,300 --> 00:38:17,320
+bid و طلعولي جواب افهموا كمان مرة ال bar value عشر
+
+443
+00:38:17,320 --> 00:38:23,140
+تلاف ضرب واحد ناقص ال ask ال bid ضرب السبت و
+
+444
+00:38:23,140 --> 00:38:26,640
+تلاتين ال maturity مقصوم على تلات مية و ستين طيب
+
+445
+00:38:26,640 --> 00:38:35,480
+هلأ بنعمل ايش نعمل ال ask فى حد بيعمل ال ask فى
+
+446
+00:38:35,480 --> 00:38:40,680
+حد بيطبق ال ask نفس الاشي بس بتأكد انه فاهمينمين
+
+447
+00:38:40,680 --> 00:38:44,320
+يعمل ال ask؟ ع الورقة عندكم بس يعملوا ال ask يلا
+
+448
+00:38:44,320 --> 00:38:48,100
+عملولي ال .. ع الورقة ال ask و طلعولي سعر ال ask
+
+449
+00:38:48,100 --> 00:38:51,500
+كلام
+
+450
+00:38:51,500 --> 00:38:56,200
+هذا نظري منيح بس لما مانيش نطبق بنبطل نعرف
+
+451
+00:38:56,200 --> 00:39:03,800
+اشتغلولي ع ال ask طيب homework في البيت مطلوب
+
+452
+00:39:03,800 --> 00:39:04,640
+انكوا إيش تسووا؟
+
+453
+00:39:11,210 --> 00:39:17,710
+في البيت بد
+
+454
+00:39:17,710 --> 00:39:24,750
+تحولول ال bid و ال ask لأسعار شايفين
+
+455
+00:39:24,750 --> 00:39:27,850
+ال bid و ال ask هدول .. هدول ال bid و ال ask هما
+
+456
+00:39:27,850 --> 00:39:33,330
+discount rates بدنا ياهم prices أسعار نفس الطريقة
+
+457
+00:39:33,330 --> 00:39:38,070
+نفس الطريقة بد انا مثلا ال maturity تبقى تمانية
+
+458
+00:39:38,070 --> 00:39:41,700
+تحكيلي هذا سعر كذا و هذا سعر كذاال mature تبقى 15
+
+459
+00:39:41,700 --> 00:39:45,320
+سعر كذا و سعر كذا و 29 تعملوا ال table و تجيبولي
+
+460
+00:39:45,320 --> 00:39:48,220
+إياها المرة الجاية عشان أتأكد أنه على القانون اللي
+
+461
+00:39:48,220 --> 00:39:55,660
+أعطيتكم إياها okay لكل
+
+462
+00:39:55,660 --> 00:40:00,960
+الجدول؟ في حد عنده سؤال؟ في حد مش فاهم كيف؟ اه
+
+463
+00:40:00,960 --> 00:40:04,320
+فضلي انا مش فاهم ان الواحد ناقص ال person ليه هو
+
+464
+00:40:04,320 --> 00:40:06,080
+ال person يعني في الحالة اللي لازم نعمل ال person
+
+465
+00:40:06,080 --> 00:40:12,280
+ليه ضرر و ليه ممكن يبقى عاملاه هي رياضيا يعني احنا
+
+466
+00:40:12,280 --> 00:40:20,500
+لما نيجي لإنه discount ليش واحد ناقص؟ لإن لو
+
+467
+00:40:20,500 --> 00:40:31,240
+رياضيا شوفي رياضيا إيش بيصير معنا تبها بس يعني
+
+468
+00:40:31,240 --> 00:40:37,880
+إيش صارت عشر تلاف ضرب واحد ليه عشر تلاف okay ناقص
+
+469
+00:40:38,720 --> 00:40:48,560
+نسبة الخاصم okay عشر تلاف ناقص النسبة الخاصة okay
+
+470
+00:40:48,560 --> 00:40:53,360
+بس هذه نسبة الخاصة مضروبة في ايش ستة و تلاتين تلات
+
+471
+00:40:53,360 --> 00:41:02,240
+نية و ستين هذه هي نفسها تمام لأ
+
+472
+00:41:02,240 --> 00:41:04,000
+العشر تلاف هذه ال bar value ثابت
+
+473
+00:41:07,700 --> 00:41:10,980
+بعطيكوا إياها معطى bar value معروف إن ال treasury
+
+474
+00:41:10,980 --> 00:41:16,140
+bills قيمته الإسمية 10,000$ وحتى لو مش معطيكم
+
+475
+00:41:16,140 --> 00:41:22,200
+إياها قيمة ال bar value لل treasury bills هي 10
+
+476
+00:41:22,200 --> 00:41:29,620
+,000$ مرة جبنا امتحان للطلاب الفاصل فات وماعطناهمش
+
+477
+00:41:29,620 --> 00:41:35,020
+ال bar value تبع ال bond فأنا .. فإحنا هطيلهم عشان
+
+478
+00:41:35,020 --> 00:41:39,410
+أنتوا ما تسألوش في الامتحان ليشفالقيمة الاسمية
+
+479
+00:41:39,410 --> 00:41:46,050
+للسند هي الف دولار السند ال bond الا اذا كان غير
+
+480
+00:41:46,050 --> 00:41:50,070
+هيك يعني لو انا حكيتلكم calculate the bond price
+
+481
+00:41:50,070 --> 00:41:54,510
+خلاص اعتبروا انه ال bar value ايش الف دولار طيب هل
+
+482
+00:41:54,510 --> 00:41:59,290
+ال treasury bills هي معروفة عشر تلاف الا اذا كان
+
+483
+00:41:59,290 --> 00:42:03,490
+غير هيك ال
+
+484
+00:42:03,490 --> 00:42:06,230
+bar value تبعد ل treasury bills عشر تلاف دولار
+
+485
+00:42:07,100 --> 00:42:10,780
+القيمة الإسمية لل .. لل treasury bills لأذنات
+
+486
+00:42:10,780 --> 00:42:15,660
+الخزينة عشر تلاف دولار إلا إذا ذكرنا غير ذلك يعني
+
+487
+00:42:15,660 --> 00:42:20,320
+إلا قلنالك مثلا ميت ألف إذا ماذكرناش في الامتحان
+
+488
+00:42:20,320 --> 00:42:23,980
+ماكان أو خاص يتعامل معاها كأنها إيش عشر تلاف دولار
+
+489
+00:42:23,980 --> 00:42:29,880
+حتى لو ماكانتش معطلة فما تسألوش في الامتحان إيش ال
+
+490
+00:42:29,880 --> 00:42:32,860
+treasury bills برضه لأنه already هي عشر تلاف دولار
+
+491
+00:42:32,860 --> 00:42:35,740
+فهذا بكشف أن الطلاب اللي بيحضروا الطلاب اللي
+
+492
+00:42:35,740 --> 00:42:36,240
+بيحضروش
+
+493
+00:42:42,230 --> 00:42:48,490
+هيشتري فيه بعد ما .. بعد ما نحط السعرين انتبهوا يا
+
+494
+00:42:48,490 --> 00:42:51,590
+بنات بعد ما نحط السعرين عشان تفهموا سعر الشراء
+
+495
+00:42:51,590 --> 00:42:58,510
+والبيع بنحط السعرين أمام بعض لنفترض لو كان سعر 9
+
+496
+00:42:58,510 --> 00:43:05,450
+.10 و سعر 9.05 ال investor على وين بيشتري؟
+
+497
+00:43:08,270 --> 00:43:12,510
+ع باشتري أهالي ولا باشتري هذا؟ على هذا باشتري؟ لأ
+
+498
+00:43:12,510 --> 00:43:15,710
+أنا ماعطيتوش لأصب و لا بد هانت هيك محتوطين أسعار
+
+499
+00:43:15,710 --> 00:43:22,210
+هيك تسعة عشرة بدي أشتري يالا
+
+500
+00:43:22,210 --> 00:43:29,450
+جاوبوني أشوف لأ إذا أنتوا بتكتشوا هنشتري تسعة
+
+501
+00:43:29,450 --> 00:43:34,630
+فاصلة عشرةو لو هو معالج treasure bills هبيعها على
+
+502
+00:43:34,630 --> 00:43:39,710
+9.5% و الفرق بين اتهم هو الربح او ال spread الربح
+
+503
+00:43:39,710 --> 00:43:46,290
+لل dealer اللي احنا بسميه cash spread يعني لو
+
+504
+00:43:46,290 --> 00:43:49,030
+اجينا .. لو اجينا .. لو اجينا two investors مع بعض
+
+505
+00:43:49,030 --> 00:43:53,090
+واحد بديه يشتري و واحد يبيع اللي بديه يشتري
+
+506
+00:43:53,090 --> 00:43:58,230
+انتبهوا بس اللي بديه يشتري بناخد منه .. هه هذا
+
+507
+00:43:58,230 --> 00:44:05,490
+اكتب لكم ايه ناخد منهأنا ديلر 9.10 أخدنا منه 9.10
+
+508
+00:44:05,490 --> 00:44:08,510
+و أعطينا له ايش ال treasure bills هو أخد ال
+
+509
+00:44:08,510 --> 00:44:11,470
+treasure bills اجا واحد تاني لأ معاه treasure
+
+510
+00:44:11,470 --> 00:44:18,870
+bills و بده يبيعها اه فاحنا بناخدها من نعطيه نعطيه
+
+511
+00:44:18,870 --> 00:44:26,130
+يعني بده يبيعها نعطيه 9.05الديلر بيعطيه 9.05
+
+512
+00:44:26,130 --> 00:44:33,050
+وبالتالي الديلر ربحه اللي هو 9.10 ناخذ 9.05 لأنه
+
+513
+00:44:33,050 --> 00:44:39,870
+وسيط okay فدائما
+
+514
+00:44:39,870 --> 00:44:43,410
+اللي بيدي اشتري لما انتوا تروحوا تشتريوا دولار
+
+515
+00:44:43,410 --> 00:44:46,870
+بسيط لما تروحوا تشتريوا دولار مين راح تصرف دولار
+
+516
+00:44:46,870 --> 00:44:53,000
+من السوق؟ أغلبكم أه؟عندك السعر اليوم اربعة فاصلة
+
+517
+00:44:53,000 --> 00:44:57,040
+واحد سبعين اربعة فاصلة تسعة وستين معاكي انت ميت
+
+518
+00:44:57,040 --> 00:45:00,580
+دولار، مظبوط؟ الميت دولار جداش بتبيعيها، عجداش
+
+519
+00:45:00,580 --> 00:45:03,900
+خلّيها هي ما تحكيش على تسعة وستين وانا على واحد
+
+520
+00:45:03,900 --> 00:45:11,440
+وسبعين، هعطيكي على تسعة وستين طيب ايوة،
+
+521
+00:45:11,440 --> 00:45:15,320
+هياخد منك الميت دولار، تبقى يا بنات جانب ما تمشي،
+
+522
+00:45:15,320 --> 00:45:18,660
+هياخد منك الميت دولار على تسعة وستين، أخدها وهيروح
+
+523
+00:45:18,660 --> 00:45:22,520
+بيها على واحد وسبعينهيكون في ربح الفرج
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/QdYL5k6QhxQ_postprocess.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/QdYL5k6QhxQ_postprocess.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..0f801a0b9ca2484772f5340a339f050c3417d55b
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/QdYL5k6QhxQ_postprocess.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,2404 @@
+1
+00:00:21,360 --> 00:00:24,760
+بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم اليوم ده نحكي عن ال chapter
+
+2
+00:00:24,760 --> 00:00:29,200
+الأخير في ال .. في ال investment و هذا chapter is
+
+3
+00:00:29,200 --> 00:00:34,060
+important لأنه من خلاله احنا بنقدر نعرف how to
+
+4
+00:00:34,060 --> 00:00:38,200
+invest كيف احنا نستثمر ال chapter السابقة عرفتنا
+
+5
+00:00:38,200 --> 00:00:41,900
+بال risk and return العقد و المخاطرة عرفتنا بال
+
+6
+00:00:41,900 --> 00:00:46,660
+asset allocation عرفتنا بال asset assessment تمام؟
+
+7
+00:00:46,660 --> 00:00:49,040
+هلأ ال .. ال chapter هذا بيحكي عن investment
+
+8
+00:00:49,040 --> 00:00:52,820
+policyهنركز على investment policy and the
+
+9
+00:00:52,820 --> 00:00:56,220
+framework of the CFA institution or institute اللي
+
+10
+00:00:56,220 --> 00:01:01,040
+هو charter of financial association طبعا في كل
+
+11
+00:01:01,040 --> 00:01:04,320
+دولة من الدول فيها عندنا مؤسسة بتضبط عملية
+
+12
+00:01:04,320 --> 00:01:08,850
+الاستثمار بتعمل regulations للاستثماررنظيم
+
+13
+00:01:08,850 --> 00:01:14,110
+للاستثمار و .. يعني مثلا احنا عندنا في .. في
+
+14
+00:01:14,110 --> 00:01:17,430
+فلسطين في عندنا الهيئة تشييع الاستثمار فبيكون
+
+15
+00:01:17,430 --> 00:01:20,910
+عندهم rules و هاد ال rules بتطبق يعني لابد ان
+
+16
+00:01:20,910 --> 00:01:25,850
+الشركات او ال individuals ي .. يتابعوا هاد ال ..
+
+17
+00:01:25,850 --> 00:01:31,310
+يطبقوا هاد التعليمات اهم
+
+18
+00:01:31,310 --> 00:01:35,640
+ال .. ال four stages of the investment processفي
+
+19
+00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:41,020
+عندنا أربع مراحل لاستثمار أو لعملية الاستثمار
+
+20
+00:01:41,020 --> 00:01:45,140
+المراحل الأولى specifying objectives انحدد الهدف
+
+21
+00:01:45,140 --> 00:01:48,820
+what is your objective ليش أنتوا بيكونوا بتستثمروا
+
+22
+00:01:48,820 --> 00:01:55,820
+okay and objectives are different from one to one
+
+23
+00:01:55,820 --> 00:01:59,280
+يعني مثلا ال young people they have different
+
+24
+00:01:59,280 --> 00:02:03,180
+objectives than older peopleالناس الصغار في السن
+
+25
+00:02:03,180 --> 00:02:07,840
+اللي هم أهداف تختلف عن الناس ال .. widows ladies
+
+26
+00:02:07,840 --> 00:02:10,900
+have different objectives than the married ladies
+
+27
+00:02:10,900 --> 00:02:14,520
+يعني النساء مثلا الأرامل عندهم أهداف تختلف عن
+
+28
+00:02:14,520 --> 00:02:20,840
+المتزوجات ال single ladies have different than the
+
+29
+00:02:20,840 --> 00:02:24,570
+married ladies ال .. ال kidsthey have different
+
+30
+00:02:24,570 --> 00:02:28,250
+objectives than the mature people يعني الأولاد
+
+31
+00:02:28,250 --> 00:02:31,670
+الظاهر عندهم أهداف تختلف عن ال .. so from the
+
+32
+00:02:31,670 --> 00:02:35,250
+investment point of view as a manager كمدير في
+
+33
+00:02:35,250 --> 00:02:37,810
+الاستثمار when .. when you are receiving or when
+
+34
+00:02:37,810 --> 00:02:41,050
+you have a chat or talk with some people you have
+
+35
+00:02:41,050 --> 00:02:44,410
+to consider what is or what are the .. the
+
+36
+00:02:44,410 --> 00:02:48,710
+objectives ايش هي أهدافهم by time people become
+
+37
+00:02:48,710 --> 00:02:51,190
+more mature than the .. than before الناس بيبدوا
+
+38
+00:02:51,190 --> 00:02:55,210
+أكتر عقلاءمن الماضي كل ما هم بتقدروا .. so they
+
+39
+00:02:55,210 --> 00:02:59,750
+are asking for a moderate risk and moderate return
+
+40
+00:02:59,750 --> 00:03:10,790
+بيسألوا على عائد متوسط مع مخاطر متوسطة بيسألوا
+
+41
+00:03:10,790 --> 00:03:10,910
+على عائد متوسط مع مخاطر متوسطة بيسألوا على عائد
+
+42
+00:03:10,910 --> 00:03:11,270
+متوسط مع مخاطر متوسطة بيسألوا على عائد متوسط مع
+
+43
+00:03:11,270 --> 00:03:13,610
+متوسطة بيسألوا على عائد متوسط مع مخاطر متوسطة
+
+44
+00:03:13,610 --> 00:03:16,470
+بيسألوا على عائد متوسط مع مخاطر متوسط مع مخاطر
+
+45
+00:03:16,470 --> 00:03:18,470
+متوسط مع مخاطر متوسط مع مخاطر متوسط مع مخاطر متوسط
+
+46
+00:03:18,470 --> 00:03:22,050
+مع مخاطر متوسط مع مخاطر متوس
+
+47
+00:03:25,470 --> 00:03:28,930
+then the second things is they specify constraints
+
+48
+00:03:28,930 --> 00:03:35,170
+what it means constraints some limitations to your
+
+49
+00:03:35,170 --> 00:03:38,510
+investments بعض المتطلبات اللي .. اللي احنا
+
+50
+00:03:38,510 --> 00:03:41,560
+بنحتاجها أثناء الاستثمارادم يسميها constraints
+
+51
+00:03:41,560 --> 00:03:47,780
+يعني مثلا بنيجي بنحكي لبعض الناس they have concern
+
+52
+00:03:47,780 --> 00:03:51,700
+to receive cash every month or to receive cash
+
+53
+00:03:51,700 --> 00:03:55,400
+every three months this is constraints some people
+
+54
+00:03:55,400 --> 00:03:57,260
+they don't like to invest in a particular
+
+55
+00:03:57,260 --> 00:04:01,890
+companiesيعني بعض الناس مابدون مش ي .. ي ..
+
+56
+00:04:01,890 --> 00:04:05,390
+يستثمروا في بعض الشركات for instance Muslims they
+
+57
+00:04:05,390 --> 00:04:10,410
+don't like to invest in .. in companies let's say
+
+58
+00:04:10,410 --> 00:04:16,650
+produce or provide pork meat يعني المسلمين مثلا
+
+59
+00:04:16,650 --> 00:04:22,090
+بيحبوش انه يستثمروا في شركات بتنتج اللحم الخنزير
+
+60
+00:04:22,840 --> 00:04:25,920
+because this is according to islamic sharia it is
+
+61
+00:04:25,920 --> 00:04:30,300
+violated the islamic sharia لأن هذا ضد الشريعة
+
+62
+00:04:30,300 --> 00:04:34,260
+الإسلامية so this is some constraints you have to
+
+63
+00:04:34,260 --> 00:04:38,320
+know the constraints of these people يعني لازم
+
+64
+00:04:38,320 --> 00:04:41,680
+نعرف شو بتطلباتهم what they need what the
+
+65
+00:04:41,680 --> 00:04:45,020
+limitations of their investments okay
+
+66
+00:04:49,080 --> 00:04:53,820
+formulating policy formulating policy it means ان
+
+67
+00:04:53,820 --> 00:04:57,660
+احنا بعد ما نحدد الهدف اللي هو ال policy yes ان
+
+68
+00:04:57,660 --> 00:05:01,320
+احنا نحط سياسة الاستثمار in which area we invest
+
+69
+00:05:01,320 --> 00:05:04,300
+what is the level of risk what is the level of
+
+70
+00:05:04,300 --> 00:05:09,190
+returnOkay and we will go in details about this
+
+71
+00:05:09,190 --> 00:05:12,370
+Monitoring and updating portfolio after setting
+
+72
+00:05:12,370 --> 00:05:15,350
+the policy and we implement the policy بعد ما احنا
+
+73
+00:05:15,350 --> 00:05:18,970
+نحط ال policy سياسة و ننفذها then we have to
+
+74
+00:05:18,970 --> 00:05:21,350
+monitor this policy لازم نعمل monitoring
+
+75
+00:05:21,350 --> 00:05:25,790
+Monitoring يعني نتابع and to receive feedback يعني
+
+76
+00:05:25,790 --> 00:05:30,900
+for instanceإذا كانت ال monitoring .. إذا كان ال
+
+77
+00:05:30,900 --> 00:05:36,340
+return و ال risk احنا we said the return for
+
+78
+00:05:36,340 --> 00:05:41,000
+instance is seven percent and after three months
+
+79
+00:05:41,000 --> 00:05:44,980
+we calculate the return and we find it is three
+
+80
+00:05:44,980 --> 00:05:48,580
+percent so what we can do is just we try to update
+
+81
+00:05:48,580 --> 00:05:52,200
+our policy to see what is the problem to evaluate
+
+82
+00:05:52,200 --> 00:05:57,700
+the .. to see what are the challengesوالتحديات هذه
+
+83
+00:05:57,700 --> 00:06:04,980
+تجعل الراتب تتخلص من 7%، فهي مهمة التحكم،
+
+84
+00:06:04,980 --> 00:06:10,260
+التتعامل، وتبقى متتعامل مع ال .. ومع ذلك، الناس
+
+85
+00:06:10,260 --> 00:06:15,440
+الذين يتحكمون بطريقة الاستثمار ليسوا نفس الناس
+
+86
+00:06:15,440 --> 00:06:18,810
+الذين يقومون بوضع الطريقةيعني الناس اللي بيحطوا
+
+87
+00:06:18,810 --> 00:06:21,930
+السياسة الاستثمار مش هم الناس اللي بي .. اللي
+
+88
+00:06:21,930 --> 00:06:23,870
+بيعملوا monitoring يعني شوفوا في ال .. في ال
+
+89
+00:06:23,870 --> 00:06:26,670
+governance أنتوا درستوا governance ال governance
+
+90
+00:06:26,670 --> 00:06:29,990
+is .. is very important people who are evaluating
+
+91
+00:06:29,990 --> 00:06:34,030
+the .. setting the objectives يعني الناس اللي ..
+
+92
+00:06:34,030 --> 00:06:39,860
+يعني اجينا مثلا اجينا واحد شخص عاديبدو يستثمر و
+
+93
+00:06:39,860 --> 00:06:43,480
+احنا بشركة استثمارات فبنجلس معاها بنشوف و بناخد
+
+94
+00:06:43,480 --> 00:06:47,560
+نعمله questionnaire نعمله questionnaire و على فكرة
+
+95
+00:06:47,560 --> 00:06:51,600
+في عندنا .. في عندنا sample في عندنا sample على ال
+
+96
+00:06:51,600 --> 00:07:01,180
+questionnaire في صفحة 954 يعني
+
+97
+00:07:01,180 --> 00:07:04,460
+في عندنا صفحة .. يعني questionnaire في حوالي هيك
+
+98
+00:07:04,460 --> 00:07:12,730
+سبعة أسئلةهي ال .. ال question البسيط صفحة
+
+99
+00:07:12,730 --> 00:07:18,370
+954 يعني مثلا .. مثلا نسأل ال investor هاي الفلوس
+
+100
+00:07:18,370 --> 00:07:22,070
+من وين؟ نسأله يعني very .. very simple questions
+
+101
+00:07:22,070 --> 00:07:26,210
+the source of your .. your money من وين فلوسك؟
+
+102
+00:07:26,210 --> 00:07:31,870
+this is important لازم نعرف فلوسه من وين طبعا ليش
+
+103
+00:07:31,870 --> 00:07:34,950
+لأنه the source of investment lead us to the level
+
+104
+00:07:34,950 --> 00:07:39,340
+of riskتعطينا مستوى المخاطر، يعني إذا هي المصاري
+
+105
+00:07:39,340 --> 00:07:43,360
+تبعته تحويشة عمره، فمعناه الكلام أنه بنحطله بيها
+
+106
+00:07:43,360 --> 00:07:50,600
+في secure investments، يعني ب .. باستثمارات آمنة،
+
+107
+00:07:50,600 --> 00:07:54,120
+إذا .. إذا كان هو بيحكي okay this is for instance
+
+108
+00:07:54,120 --> 00:08:02,290
+.. this is my .. my annual incomeيعني كل سنة
+
+109
+00:08:02,290 --> 00:08:05,210
+بيجيني هذا ال income it's fine يعني هذا for
+
+110
+00:08:05,210 --> 00:08:09,530
+instance انا businessman ف he is more capable to
+
+111
+00:08:09,530 --> 00:08:13,330
+hold more risk than retired people يعني بيكون مصدر
+
+112
+00:08:13,330 --> 00:08:18,150
+الأموال تبعه أمن و ممكن هو يغامر أكتر من شخص هو كل
+
+113
+00:08:18,150 --> 00:08:22,210
+ال savings تبعتهم طيب إيش ال areas اللي انت حابب
+
+114
+00:08:22,210 --> 00:08:26,690
+تستثمر فيها؟ وين انت حابب تستثمر؟ نسأله أسئلة مثلا
+
+115
+00:08:26,690 --> 00:08:31,490
+شو .. قداش عدد الأسرة؟لأن كل ما كبرت هذا الأسرة كل
+
+116
+00:08:31,490 --> 00:08:35,850
+ما كان فيه conservative أكتر طيب بتزوج ولا أعزف؟
+
+117
+00:08:35,850 --> 00:08:41,570
+ساكن بيت ملك ولا أجار؟ لأن كل .. إذا كان مالك
+
+118
+00:08:41,570 --> 00:08:45,550
+بيكون .. بيكون قدرته على المخاطر أعلى من لو كان
+
+119
+00:08:45,550 --> 00:08:50,230
+اتأجر البيت لأنه فيه بيكون أكتر .. مقيم ولا .. ولا
+
+120
+00:08:50,230 --> 00:08:53,510
+أجنبي؟ مثلا في بعض الدول مثلا في الخليج العربي ولا
+
+121
+00:08:53,510 --> 00:08:58,480
+بال .. ولا بأوروبا بسأل أنت مقيم ولا أجنبي؟يعني
+
+122
+00:08:58,480 --> 00:09:01,560
+مواطن ولا أجنبي فإذا كان مواطن بيكون فيه ال risk
+
+123
+00:09:01,560 --> 00:09:04,460
+تبقى أقل من ال .. إذا كان أجنبي because the
+
+124
+00:09:04,460 --> 00:09:06,440
+foreign people they can easily .. they can leave
+
+125
+00:09:06,440 --> 00:09:10,400
+the country at anytime لأن هدول ممكن يغادروا البلد
+
+126
+00:09:10,400 --> 00:09:13,280
+في أي وقت so you have to be careful with them so
+
+127
+00:09:13,280 --> 00:09:15,640
+this is very important when you are determining
+
+128
+00:09:15,640 --> 00:09:18,840
+the level of risk and when you are designing the
+
+129
+00:09:18,840 --> 00:09:22,600
+policy so الناس اللي بيحطوا ال objectives و ال
+
+130
+00:09:22,600 --> 00:09:27,000
+constraints بيكون عبارة عن ال .. some peopleOkay
+
+131
+00:09:27,000 --> 00:09:31,020
+different people setting the policy and different
+
+132
+00:09:31,020 --> 00:09:35,880
+people reporting or monitoring the policy يعني
+
+133
+00:09:35,880 --> 00:09:38,400
+بيكون تقريبا أنه تلت أشخاص طالما إحنا بنحكي عن
+
+134
+00:09:38,400 --> 00:09:41,660
+investment companies شركات الاستثمار و للأسف شديد
+
+135
+00:09:41,660 --> 00:09:45,300
+عشان نعمل reflection طالما إحنا بنحكي عن مناطق
+
+136
+00:09:45,300 --> 00:09:49,980
+السلطة الفلسطينية في كتير مشاكل بتصير بسبب عدم
+
+137
+00:09:49,980 --> 00:09:53,510
+فهمنا ل investment policyعدم افهم انها سياسة
+
+138
+00:09:53,510 --> 00:09:56,990
+الاستثمار يكون شخص معاه فلوس يعني saving و بروح
+
+139
+00:09:56,990 --> 00:10:00,700
+لأى واحد و بقوله just invest on meو هذا الشخص اللي
+
+140
+00:10:00,700 --> 00:10:03,880
+بيعمل investment هو بيحط نفسه ال objective و هو
+
+141
+00:10:03,880 --> 00:10:05,980
+نفسه بيحط ال design policy و هو نفسه بيعمل ال
+
+142
+00:10:05,980 --> 00:10:09,860
+monitoring و ال evaluating كمان لازم يكون في ناس
+
+143
+00:10:09,860 --> 00:10:13,240
+خارج ال .. ال .. هذه ال company some governmental
+
+144
+00:10:13,240 --> 00:10:16,200
+institutions they have to keep their eyes on these
+
+145
+00:10:16,200 --> 00:10:20,220
+institutions يعني لازم يخلوا بقى انهم يتطلع على
+
+146
+00:10:20,220 --> 00:10:24,880
+هذه ال institutions حتى يتأكدوا ان هدول they are
+
+147
+00:10:24,880 --> 00:10:28,060
+following the rules and they are not putting the
+
+148
+00:10:28,060 --> 00:10:32,350
+people money at riskيعني مايحطوش مصاري الناس تحت
+
+149
+00:10:32,350 --> 00:10:35,770
+الخطر، يعني أعطيكم مثال بسيط، إذا كان .. إذا كان
+
+150
+00:10:35,770 --> 00:10:40,850
+investment manager لما حدد ال investment manager
+
+151
+00:10:40,850 --> 00:10:45,750
+اجاله مثلا .. أعطيتكم مثال مثلا، بدوا يستثمر
+
+152
+00:10:45,750 --> 00:10:50,520
+الأيتامOkay طبعا أكيد أنه the level of risk is
+
+153
+00:10:50,520 --> 00:10:54,160
+very low مستوى المخاطر تبع دول الناس بيكون مخفض
+
+154
+00:10:54,160 --> 00:10:58,900
+هذا ال investor manager he or she should have a
+
+155
+00:10:58,900 --> 00:11:01,220
+good experience to manage people money لازم يكون
+
+156
+00:11:01,220 --> 00:11:05,700
+عنده خبرة كويسة في استثمار الأموال فإذا هذا الراجل
+
+157
+00:11:05,700 --> 00:11:10,360
+عمل خسائر 95% of the orphanages people money إذا
+
+158
+00:11:10,360 --> 00:11:15,270
+خسر الناس 95% من أموالهمهذا المفروض يعني يكون في
+
+159
+00:11:15,270 --> 00:11:21,430
+legal issues against him يكون في إجراءات قانونية
+
+160
+00:11:21,430 --> 00:11:28,190
+لإن هو .. هو عمل evaluation okay و عمل investment
+
+161
+00:11:28,190 --> 00:11:32,850
+policy و بعدين خسر الناس فلوسهم ف legally قانونيا
+
+162
+00:11:33,480 --> 00:11:37,180
+في قانون الشركات الاستثمار المفروض he has to .. to
+
+163
+00:11:37,180 --> 00:11:40,280
+be responsible about the .. about this investment،
+
+164
+00:11:40,280 --> 00:11:43,740
+بعكس .. بعكس لو كان آه لازم يتحمل المسؤولية، بعكس
+
+165
+00:11:43,740 --> 00:11:47,120
+طبعا احنا بنحكي عن قانون الشركات الاستثمار، هذا في
+
+166
+00:11:47,120 --> 00:11:51,780
+ال united statesهدويا في الولايات المتحدة و أوروبا
+
+167
+00:11:51,780 --> 00:11:57,420
+يعني مثلا هدول الناس اللي mislead
+
+168
+00:11:57,420 --> 00:12:01,360
+أو يسيئوا استثمار أموال الناس بعكس لو انا اعطيكم
+
+169
+00:12:01,360 --> 00:12:05,200
+مثال تاني لو في ناس very high risk و خسرنالهم مش
+
+170
+00:12:05,200 --> 00:12:09,400
+مشكلة بس الناس ال low risk و روحنا خسرنالهم
+
+171
+00:12:09,400 --> 00:12:14,140
+مصاريهم كلهم it is a problem فإنه احنا ال investor
+
+172
+00:12:14,140 --> 00:12:20,330
+manager لازم يكون is efficientلازم يكون كفق و إلا
+
+173
+00:12:20,330 --> 00:12:24,830
+مابنفعش يكون هو .. يعني مش أي واحد والله فتح دكانة
+
+174
+00:12:24,830 --> 00:12:27,710
+استثمار و قال يلا بنستثمر لأم مصاري هالناس و
+
+175
+00:12:27,710 --> 00:12:30,830
+بالأخير لأنه هذا بدخل في ال .. في .. في قضايا
+
+176
+00:12:30,830 --> 00:12:35,810
+الأمن الاقتصاديوإذا الأمن اقتصادي يعني جمعنا
+
+177
+00:12:35,810 --> 00:12:38,970
+مليارات الدولارات وراحت خسرة الدولة وبالتالي
+
+178
+00:12:38,970 --> 00:12:42,770
+الدولة هي مفروض .. مفترض أنه تسد لكن الدولة اللي
+
+179
+00:12:42,770 --> 00:12:48,250
+مابتستطعش تدير أو تراقب هذه شركات الاستثمار هتصور
+
+180
+00:12:48,250 --> 00:12:51,970
+هتعمل فوضى في البلد وبالتالي يعني بالنسبة ل
+
+181
+00:12:51,970 --> 00:12:55,650
+investment regulations we have toto .. to consider
+
+182
+00:12:55,650 --> 00:12:58,310
+the importance of monitoring the investment
+
+183
+00:12:58,310 --> 00:13:02,030
+companies فعشان هيك ال CFA is important هدول CFA
+
+184
+00:13:02,030 --> 00:13:05,530
+أو الهيئة تجيع الاستثمار او .. او قاين الاستثمار
+
+185
+00:13:05,530 --> 00:13:11,210
+كتير مهمة ان احنا نعرفهاو هذا السبب انه انا جبتكم
+
+186
+00:13:11,210 --> 00:13:14,710
+يعني .. يعني باللقاءات الأخيرة Specifying
+
+187
+00:13:14,710 --> 00:13:21,690
+objectives كيف احنا نحدد ال objectives Investment
+
+188
+00:13:21,690 --> 00:13:24,930
+managers must assess the level of risk must خدوا
+
+189
+00:13:24,930 --> 00:13:30,410
+بالكم must يعني مش شد ولا .. ولا would ولا ..
+
+190
+00:13:30,410 --> 00:13:33,830
+الزام انه يعملوا assessmentلازم يعملوا إيش؟
+
+191
+00:13:33,830 --> 00:13:38,330
+assessment لأنه إذا عملوا assessment غلط who is in
+
+192
+00:13:38,330 --> 00:13:43,490
+charge؟ مين المسئول؟ مش ال investors هم ال
+
+193
+00:13:43,490 --> 00:13:47,570
+investment managers ال investment managers هم they
+
+194
+00:13:47,570 --> 00:13:51,690
+are responsible they are in charge investment
+
+195
+00:13:51,690 --> 00:13:54,230
+managers must assess the level of risk investors
+
+196
+00:13:54,230 --> 00:13:58,920
+can tolerate in pursuit of higher returnsيعني لازم
+
+197
+00:13:58,920 --> 00:14:05,380
+هم يعملوا تقييم للمستثمرين
+
+198
+00:14:05,380 --> 00:14:09,620
+ويعرفوا جداش مستوي المخاطر اللي ممكن يتحملوه وجداش
+
+199
+00:14:09,620 --> 00:14:12,960
+العائد اللي ممكن هم يطلبوه، هذا مسئولية من؟
+
+200
+00:14:12,960 --> 00:14:14,240
+مسئولية ال investment managers
+
+201
+00:14:20,760 --> 00:14:24,100
+Okay يعمى كتير investment managers راحوا على
+
+202
+00:14:24,100 --> 00:14:29,620
+المحاكم وانحبسوا لأنهم .. لأن هذي باعتبار حسب
+
+203
+00:14:29,620 --> 00:14:32,240
+القانون الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية و في ال UK كمان
+
+204
+00:14:32,240 --> 00:14:38,040
+بيعتبروا ان هذي أمانة ال .. يعني as a trustees
+
+205
+00:14:38,040 --> 00:14:42,860
+يعني كأمناء على أموال الناس انت المخاطر تبعتي مثلا
+
+206
+00:14:42,860 --> 00:14:47,740
+احتمال ان انا اخسر 5%إذا تجاوزت الخسارة تبعتي 5%
+
+207
+00:14:47,740 --> 00:14:52,660
+you have to close the fund يعني أنت قدرت كمدير
+
+208
+00:14:52,660 --> 00:14:55,660
+استثمار أنه انا احتمالات الخسارة من رأس مالي 5% is
+
+209
+00:14:55,660 --> 00:15:01,040
+5% is fine لكن إذا تجاوزت هذا المبلغ 5% 10% 12%
+
+210
+00:15:01,040 --> 00:15:04,460
+لازم تسكروا الاستثمار أو خلاص يعني يعمل
+
+211
+00:15:04,460 --> 00:15:08,140
+liquidation لل investment أحسن ما يروح يخسر الناس
+
+212
+00:15:08,140 --> 00:15:12,200
+بقية الأموال تبعتهمObjectives and risks tolerance
+
+213
+00:15:12,200 --> 00:15:15,740
+differ by type of investor، هذا حكيناه، يعني ال
+
+214
+00:15:15,740 --> 00:15:19,720
+risk و ال return تختلف من شخص إلى آخر، okay؟ يعني
+
+215
+00:15:19,720 --> 00:15:24,460
+في ناس بتحمل و يخسروا 5% من أموالهم و في ناس بتحمل
+
+216
+00:15:24,460 --> 00:15:28,360
+و يخسروا 50% من أموالهم، it dependsيعني زي ال
+
+217
+00:15:28,360 --> 00:15:31,680
+people they are enjoying with rest ممكن يخسروا 95%
+
+218
+00:15:31,680 --> 00:15:38,480
+of their principal يعني ممكن 95% يتحملوا because
+
+219
+00:15:38,480 --> 00:15:45,020
+they have a good saving نطلع هاي ال chart هاي ال
+
+220
+00:15:45,020 --> 00:15:50,880
+chart summarizing the investment policyهذه حطتها
+
+221
+00:15:50,880 --> 00:15:54,760
+ال cfa institute investment management process
+
+222
+00:15:54,760 --> 00:15:59,940
+وهذه عمّبتها على شركات الاستثمار انه بحيث شركات
+
+223
+00:15:59,940 --> 00:16:03,380
+الاستثمار يلتزموا بهذه ال process the first thing
+
+224
+00:16:03,380 --> 00:16:07,580
+is the planning لازم يعملوا planning تخطيط and I
+
+225
+00:16:07,580 --> 00:16:13,560
+will give execution and feedback اذا فينا تلت
+
+226
+00:16:13,560 --> 00:16:16,480
+مراحل لازم نمشي فيهم the first one is planning
+
+227
+00:16:16,480 --> 00:16:20,250
+هتاخد هذا الجانب planningthen execution then
+
+228
+00:16:20,250 --> 00:16:26,190
+feedback the first one is planning أول مرحلة
+
+229
+00:16:26,190 --> 00:16:30,030
+planning لازم
+
+230
+00:16:30,030 --> 00:16:33,490
+يعملوا details specifications and quantification
+
+231
+00:16:33,490 --> 00:16:38,770
+of investor objectives لازم يتعمقوا كتير في فهم
+
+232
+00:16:38,770 --> 00:16:45,090
+حاجة المستثمر يعني ممكن تلاقي questionnaire بضم
+
+233
+00:16:45,090 --> 00:16:48,950
+تلاتين صفحةبس عشان يعرفوا what exactly the
+
+234
+00:16:48,950 --> 00:16:54,830
+investors objectives تمام؟ يعني مثلا وين ساكن؟ كم
+
+235
+00:16:54,830 --> 00:16:59,250
+مرة اتنقل من السكن؟ مثلا أسماء أفراد العائلة
+
+236
+00:16:59,250 --> 00:17:05,030
+تبعتهم؟ شغلات مثلا مكان العمل تبعته؟ كده إيه سنة
+
+237
+00:17:05,030 --> 00:17:08,490
+في العمل؟ عدد سنوات الخبرة تبعته؟ الراتب تبعته؟
+
+238
+00:17:08,490 --> 00:17:11,030
+إيش في عنده نفقات أخرى؟ إيش في عنده أموال أخرى؟
+
+239
+00:17:11,030 --> 00:17:14,990
+إيش في .. كتير شغلات حتى الإنسان اللي بقبل الطلب
+
+240
+00:17:16,210 --> 00:17:19,750
+بشعر this is break to the privacy، هذا يعني
+
+241
+00:17:19,750 --> 00:17:23,470
+بتدخلوا بخصيصيتك، هم مابتدخلوا بخصيصيتك because
+
+242
+00:17:23,470 --> 00:17:27,340
+this is regulation of the investmentفهم عشان
+
+243
+00:17:27,340 --> 00:17:31,340
+يعرفوا بالظبط انت شو بتقدر تتحمل، شو عايز، شو كذا،
+
+244
+00:17:31,340 --> 00:17:34,160
+فلازم .. and they .. sometime they arrange a .. a
+
+245
+00:17:34,160 --> 00:17:36,340
+special meeting with the .. with the investment
+
+246
+00:17:36,340 --> 00:17:39,100
+managers يعني بيعملوا special meetings، بي ..
+
+247
+00:17:39,100 --> 00:17:40,860
+بينادوا، بيقعدوا مع ال investment manager،
+
+248
+00:17:40,860 --> 00:17:45,140
+بيتحدثوا مع بعض، و .. أساس يفهم what exactly he or
+
+249
+00:17:45,140 --> 00:17:49,980
+she wants بالظبط شو هم .. شو بدهم، تمام؟ و عادة
+
+250
+00:17:49,980 --> 00:17:53,640
+بيكون هذا is videoing، بيكون هو مصور و documented
+
+251
+00:17:53,640 --> 00:17:59,220
+موثقيعني حساس انه فيه .. يعني لو مثلا جال انا
+
+252
+00:17:59,220 --> 00:18:02,840
+والله انا بتحمل يعني عشرة في المية يعني اخسر من
+
+253
+00:18:02,840 --> 00:18:07,000
+رأس مالي و بعدين لما احنا عملنا له assessments ان
+
+254
+00:18:07,000 --> 00:18:11,060
+هو بتحمل و روحنا أخسرناه له ستة في المية مثلا سوق
+
+255
+00:18:11,060 --> 00:18:13,580
+الحظ ماربحش خص الستة في المية اه انتوا سرقتونا
+
+256
+00:18:13,580 --> 00:18:18,020
+انتوا حرمية انتوا بصار شو؟ في .. في documents انه
+
+257
+00:18:18,020 --> 00:18:23,300
+انت .. ارضيت في الكلام يعني و في ناس بعتقدوا انه
+
+258
+00:18:23,300 --> 00:18:28,620
+investmentsوللأسف شديد يعني ممكن موجودين في
+
+259
+00:18:28,620 --> 00:18:33,680
+مجتمعنا هي ربح بدون خسارة ومجرد ما يبدأ بيخسر طبعا
+
+260
+00:18:33,680 --> 00:18:39,800
+هذا مستحيل يصير اه وبيجي يقول انتوا يعني بالاخير
+
+261
+00:18:39,800 --> 00:18:43,540
+انتوا نصابين وحرمية وكذا مش هذا ال investment هذا
+
+262
+00:18:43,540 --> 00:18:47,200
+ما هو investment هذا انت بتحط فلوسك بودائع وكذا
+
+263
+00:18:47,200 --> 00:18:53,850
+انت حر مش هتكون فيه خسارة this is not investmentSo
+
+264
+00:18:53,850 --> 00:18:57,430
+the .. and the second thing is constraints and
+
+265
+00:18:57,430 --> 00:19:00,970
+preferences. ال constraints هنيجي نحكي فيها زي
+
+266
+00:19:00,970 --> 00:19:03,570
+liquidity .. liquidity مثلا، دا هي ال taxation، في
+
+267
+00:19:03,570 --> 00:19:06,010
+ناس محبوش ال taxation، في ناس محبو ال taxation،
+
+268
+00:19:06,010 --> 00:19:09,190
+حسب كل واحد شو ال .. شو الشغلات اللي بدوا إياها، و
+
+269
+00:19:09,190 --> 00:19:14,790
+بعدين ال preferences، بعض ال .. التفضيلات أو بعض
+
+270
+00:19:14,790 --> 00:19:19,870
+الخصائص اللي يعني بيهتم فيها ال investorsيعني
+
+271
+00:19:19,870 --> 00:19:23,990
+بالعربي احنا بدنا ال investors نعرف معلومات عنه
+
+272
+00:19:23,990 --> 00:19:29,930
+أكتر منه from investment point of view عشان نعرف
+
+273
+00:19:29,930 --> 00:19:35,230
+كيف how to deal his or her money بعد
+
+274
+00:19:35,230 --> 00:19:39,710
+بال planning during
+
+275
+00:19:39,710 --> 00:19:41,950
+the planning we set portfolio policies and
+
+276
+00:19:41,950 --> 00:19:47,210
+strategies بدنا نحدد ال policies و ال strategiesال
+
+277
+00:19:47,210 --> 00:19:52,430
+policies لو احنا بنحكيها ال policies و ال
+
+278
+00:19:52,430 --> 00:19:57,070
+strategies اللي هو عنا .. what is the difference
+
+279
+00:19:57,070 --> 00:19:59,670
+between policies and strategies؟ شو الفرق بين ال
+
+280
+00:19:59,670 --> 00:20:03,770
+policies و ال strategies؟ ال policies بتشير بناء
+
+281
+00:20:03,770 --> 00:20:08,130
+على ال strategies ال policies يمركب على ال
+
+282
+00:20:08,130 --> 00:20:10,730
+strategies، ال strategies بيبقى أثر الشركة، ال
+
+283
+00:20:10,730 --> 00:20:13,910
+foundation of the organizationخطوط العريضة يعني ده
+
+284
+00:20:13,910 --> 00:20:18,110
+ال policy الخطوط العريضة لأ ال strategy strategy و
+
+285
+00:20:18,110 --> 00:20:26,910
+ال policies اه
+
+286
+00:20:26,910 --> 00:20:31,130
+هذه ال tactical things هدول بتحكي عنه ب tactical
+
+287
+00:20:31,130 --> 00:20:36,650
+اه تكتيكيت اه دراستوا strategic management مظبوط
+
+288
+00:20:36,650 --> 00:20:40,590
+لسه لسه مش خرجين انتوا يعني طيب
+
+289
+00:20:43,520 --> 00:20:47,220
+مش موضوعها هلا لو جينا احنا نحكي هى هدول ال
+
+290
+00:20:47,220 --> 00:20:51,040
+objectives هلا
+
+291
+00:20:51,040 --> 00:20:54,940
+هى ال investors objectives من ال investors
+
+292
+00:20:54,940 --> 00:21:02,020
+objectives بنحدد ال policies ال
+
+293
+00:21:02,020 --> 00:21:05,840
+policies
+
+294
+00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:12,600
+طبعا فيه tactical thingsبيكون فيه tactical T1, T2,
+
+295
+00:21:12,700 --> 00:21:24,820
+T3 and so on بعدين بيكون عندها ال strategy ال
+
+296
+00:21:24,820 --> 00:21:31,360
+strategy is important ال strategy is important the
+
+297
+00:21:31,360 --> 00:21:33,320
+main difference between policies and strategies
+
+298
+00:21:33,320 --> 00:21:39,650
+the policies are shortened objectives orأشياء
+
+299
+00:21:39,650 --> 00:21:43,030
+قصيرة طوال الوقت، ولكن الأسلحة طوال الوقت طوال
+
+300
+00:21:43,030 --> 00:21:44,530
+الوقت طوال الوقت طوال الوقت طوال الوقت طوال الوقت
+
+301
+00:21:44,530 --> 00:21:45,950
+طوال الوقت طوال الوقت طوال الوقت طوال الوقت طوال
+
+302
+00:21:45,950 --> 00:21:46,870
+الوقت طوال الوقت طوال الوقت طوال الوقت طوال الوقت
+
+303
+00:21:46,870 --> 00:21:47,190
+طوال الوقت طوال الوقت طوال الوقت طوال الوقت طوال
+
+304
+00:21:47,190 --> 00:21:48,910
+طوال الوقت طوال الوقت طوال الوقت طوال الوقت طوال
+
+305
+00:21:48,910 --> 00:21:55,310
+الوقت طوال الوقت طوال الوقت طوال الوقت طوال الوقت
+
+306
+00:21:55,310 --> 00:22:05,250
+طوال
+
+307
+00:22:05,250 --> 00:22:07,710
+الوق
+
+308
+00:22:12,480 --> 00:22:17,360
+الستراتيجية مابتتغيرش، الاستراتيجية مابتتغيرش،
+
+309
+00:22:17,360 --> 00:22:18,320
+الاستراتيجية مابتتغيرش، الاستراتيجية مابتتغيرش،
+
+310
+00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:18,480
+الاستراتيجية مابتتغيرش، الاستراتيجية مابتتغيرش،
+
+311
+00:22:18,480 --> 00:22:19,040
+الاستراتيجية مابتتغيرش، الاستراتيجية مابتتغيرش،
+
+312
+00:22:19,040 --> 00:22:20,960
+الاستراتيجية مابتتغيرش، الاستراتيجية مابتتغيرش،
+
+313
+00:22:20,960 --> 00:22:23,420
+الاستراتيجية مابتتغيرش، الاستراتيجية مابتتغيرش،
+
+314
+00:22:23,420 --> 00:22:26,740
+الاستراتيجية مابتتغيرش، الاستراتيجية مابتتغيرش،
+
+315
+00:22:26,740 --> 00:22:28,960
+الاستراتيجية مابتتغيرش
+
+316
+00:22:35,280 --> 00:22:38,480
+but the strategy is still fixed, we cannot change
+
+317
+00:22:38,480 --> 00:22:42,440
+the strategy لأن ال strategy بتبقى هي it is the
+
+318
+00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:46,880
+long term objectives but we can change يعني أعطيكم
+
+319
+00:22:46,880 --> 00:22:52,220
+مثل لو احنا ال strategy طبعتنا أن احنا نصل ساحة
+
+320
+00:22:52,220 --> 00:22:57,140
+غزة مثلا هاي our strategy our the the the end goal
+
+321
+00:22:57,140 --> 00:23:00,430
+طبعتناطب كنا ايش ال policy تبعتنا؟ ال policy
+
+322
+00:23:00,430 --> 00:23:05,550
+تبعتنا ناخد ال .. نطلع مثلا ماشي هذه policy او
+
+323
+00:23:05,550 --> 00:23:09,610
+بالسيارة او بالقطار او بالطيارة هدو ال policies
+
+324
+00:23:09,610 --> 00:23:15,990
+طيب احنا بدينا نمشي في الطريق مثلا لجينا ان ال ..
+
+325
+00:23:15,990 --> 00:23:20,690
+في crowded و كذا و اشي و .. و الطريق مغلق و الشرطة
+
+326
+00:23:20,690 --> 00:23:24,890
+حكيتنا غير المكان ف you can easily at the endwe
+
+327
+00:23:24,890 --> 00:23:28,110
+have to .. to .. to .. to reach to the Gaza Square
+
+328
+00:23:28,110 --> 00:23:34,110
+لازم نصل لساحة لكن إذا روحنا على النصر بكون we
+
+329
+00:23:34,110 --> 00:23:37,650
+change the strategy طب it's change the strategy it
+
+330
+00:23:37,650 --> 00:23:41,670
+means we unable to meet the investors و objectives
+
+331
+00:23:41,670 --> 00:23:44,510
+يعني معناه كدا إحنا حققنا .. ماحققناش أهداف ال
+
+332
+00:23:44,510 --> 00:23:47,730
+investors فال policies we can .. we can amend the
+
+333
+00:23:47,730 --> 00:23:53,800
+policiesin order to achieve our strategy، حتى نحقق
+
+334
+00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:56,620
+الاستراتيجية تبعتنا، this is the important things
+
+335
+00:23:56,620 --> 00:24:00,660
+فاحنا
+
+336
+00:24:00,660 --> 00:24:06,300
+بنعمل designing لل policies و لل strategies، بعدين
+
+337
+00:24:06,300 --> 00:24:10,250
+we see the capital market expectationswe will see
+
+338
+00:24:10,250 --> 00:24:13,250
+the capital market because these policies and
+
+339
+00:24:13,250 --> 00:24:15,770
+strategies will be implemented in the capital
+
+340
+00:24:15,770 --> 00:24:21,510
+market لأن هذا هننفذه بالسوق بالسوق المالي and
+
+341
+00:24:21,510 --> 00:24:25,090
+when we are applying strategies and policies we
+
+342
+00:24:25,090 --> 00:24:30,270
+face some problems or some challenges for instance
+
+343
+00:24:30,270 --> 00:24:34,550
+we will see the relevant economic things economy
+
+344
+00:24:34,550 --> 00:24:41,630
+may change الاقتصاد بتغيرsocial things الوضع
+
+345
+00:24:41,630 --> 00:24:45,430
+الاجتماعي بتغير political issues الوضع السياسي
+
+346
+00:24:45,430 --> 00:24:48,970
+بتغير and sector considerations بعض الصناعات برضه
+
+347
+00:24:48,970 --> 00:24:53,010
+بتتغير so in this part when we are designing
+
+348
+00:24:53,010 --> 00:24:55,770
+policies and strategies we have to consider what
+
+349
+00:24:55,770 --> 00:24:59,050
+are the changes could be during our investment
+
+350
+00:24:59,050 --> 00:25:03,780
+processيعني ما هي التغييرات و ما هي الشغلاء
+
+351
+00:25:03,780 --> 00:25:09,200
+because we are not living in a separate moon يعني
+
+352
+00:25:09,200 --> 00:25:12,760
+احنا مابنعيشش في قمر منفصل no we are living in
+
+353
+00:25:12,760 --> 00:25:17,160
+this ground and in this land and it's affected by
+
+354
+00:25:17,160 --> 00:25:19,000
+economic, social
+
+355
+00:25:23,360 --> 00:25:27,540
+environments such as some legal considerations
+
+356
+00:25:27,540 --> 00:25:31,200
+يعني بعض القوانين ممكن تيجي تتغير وبالتالي we have
+
+357
+00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:33,820
+to consider all of these things and to see how
+
+358
+00:25:33,820 --> 00:25:37,660
+these changes may influence on our investment
+
+359
+00:25:37,660 --> 00:25:41,180
+policy and we change these policies according to
+
+360
+00:25:41,180 --> 00:25:44,100
+the to the changes of the environments because
+
+361
+00:25:44,100 --> 00:25:49,750
+because we are living in open environments okaySo
+
+362
+00:25:49,750 --> 00:25:53,670
+this is the first part of planning. اذا اي واحد
+
+363
+00:25:53,670 --> 00:25:59,430
+بده يعمل investments to be fair with the .. with
+
+364
+00:25:59,430 --> 00:26:02,070
+.. with the investors انه احنا هاي ال policy
+
+365
+00:26:02,070 --> 00:26:05,890
+بتاعتنا و هاي احتمالات المشاكل اللي ممكن تصير يعني
+
+366
+00:26:05,890 --> 00:26:10,270
+مثلا زي طبيب بوصف دوة معين بيقول للمريض بيقول له
+
+367
+00:26:10,270 --> 00:26:14,550
+هذا الدوةبدك تاخده من كذا، في عندك مشاكل كذا كذا،
+
+368
+00:26:14,550 --> 00:26:18,250
+بدك تاخد بالك، في conditions لأن it works in a
+
+369
+00:26:18,250 --> 00:26:20,830
+special conditions if you ignore these conditions
+
+370
+00:26:20,830 --> 00:26:25,770
+the medicine could not be worked ممكن مايشتغلش and
+
+371
+00:26:25,770 --> 00:26:27,750
+the same the policy it works in a special
+
+372
+00:26:27,750 --> 00:26:30,850
+condition if these conditions change you have to
+
+373
+00:26:30,850 --> 00:26:34,770
+manage the policies according to the changes in
+
+374
+00:26:34,770 --> 00:26:37,630
+the environment حسب التغيرات اللي ممكن تسير بال
+
+375
+00:26:37,630 --> 00:26:43,280
+environmentOkay execution التنفيذ or the
+
+376
+00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:51,180
+implementation في عملية التنفيذ we have to think
+
+377
+00:26:51,180 --> 00:26:56,220
+in from the .. from top down or from the .. طلعوا
+
+378
+00:26:56,220 --> 00:27:01,440
+الشكل السهم السهم في أسهم طالع نازلة okay for
+
+379
+00:27:01,440 --> 00:27:05,880
+instance some people mistakenly think the
+
+380
+00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:07,560
+monitoring is starting at the end
+
+381
+00:27:11,370 --> 00:27:15,170
+هذا اللي احنا بنفهمه صح but this is wrong the
+
+382
+00:27:15,170 --> 00:27:18,450
+monitoring is starting from the first for instance
+
+383
+00:27:18,450 --> 00:27:21,350
+when we are sitting with the investors and setting
+
+384
+00:27:21,350 --> 00:27:26,410
+his or her objectives we may ask whether this
+
+385
+00:27:26,410 --> 00:27:31,070
+objective fit this investors needs or not يعني
+
+386
+00:27:31,070 --> 00:27:34,570
+مثلا احنا قيمنا هذا ال investors هنشوف فعلا هذا
+
+387
+00:27:34,570 --> 00:27:39,440
+تقييم صح ولا غلط ممكن ان فيه biasإيش يعني bias؟
+
+388
+00:27:39,440 --> 00:27:43,600
+يعني مثلا إجاني أنا قريب و .. وعملتله meeting و
+
+389
+00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:47,800
+كذا و إشي و هو enjoyable meeting و حطتله مثلا نقاط
+
+390
+00:27:47,800 --> 00:27:51,180
+معينة في انه هذا ال risk و هذا ال return لازم يكون
+
+391
+00:27:51,180 --> 00:27:57,400
+في other people evaluate my .. my documents هذا ال
+
+392
+00:27:57,400 --> 00:28:00,720
+documents مباشرة بيروح لل back office و ال back
+
+393
+00:28:00,720 --> 00:28:04,520
+office مباشرة بيعملوا evaluation حتى لتقييمي أنا
+
+394
+00:28:07,180 --> 00:28:11,840
+لتأكد من أنني أخذت الحكومة الصحية لهذا المستخدم
+
+395
+00:28:13,420 --> 00:28:18,480
+يعني مثلا روحنا احنا حاكولنا انتوا مهمتكوا تديروا
+
+396
+00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:24,020
+to invest مثلا في عندنا ناس هدول الشهداء مثلا
+
+397
+00:28:24,020 --> 00:28:29,720
+زوجاتهم وأولادهم بيجيولهم أموال فهذه الأموال بحتاج
+
+398
+00:28:29,720 --> 00:28:33,800
+ان حد يعملها managing يعملها managing إدارة ممكن
+
+399
+00:28:33,800 --> 00:28:37,840
+يكونوا أطفال صغار وبتسألي بيناحط ال policy
+
+400
+00:28:37,840 --> 00:28:41,640
+بتلاقمهم إيه جواحد ماعندهوش إبراحات policy معينةو
+
+401
+00:28:41,640 --> 00:28:44,700
+بعدين لما .. لازم تيجي لل back office، ال back
+
+402
+00:28:44,700 --> 00:28:47,240
+office يتطلع، this is a right policy لإنه يخرب
+
+403
+00:28:47,240 --> 00:28:50,800
+بيتك إذا بتحط إشي غلط لهدول الناسمظبوط ولا لأ؟
+
+404
+00:28:50,800 --> 00:28:56,520
+يعني إشي .. يعني بيصير إشي مأساة وفي كتير أنفلة ..
+
+405
+00:28:56,520 --> 00:29:00,060
+كتير يعني إحنا في المجتمع بنشوف جثث وحوادث
+
+406
+00:29:00,060 --> 00:29:04,100
+بالمجتمع وعندكوا أكيد جثث أكتر مني في هذه المواضيع
+
+407
+00:29:04,100 --> 00:29:09,200
+فلازم نتأكد يعني مثلا أموال الأيتام في عندنا
+
+408
+00:29:09,200 --> 00:29:11,940
+مؤسسات بترعى أموال الأيتام و بتدير أموال الأيتام
+
+409
+00:29:11,940 --> 00:29:15,700
+أنا شوفت تجربة في .. في بريطانيا اللي هي ال mental
+
+410
+00:29:15,700 --> 00:29:20,220
+ill peopleinvest of mentally ill people fund، ايش
+
+411
+00:29:20,220 --> 00:29:23,100
+ال mental ill؟ ال .. الناس اللي شوية عندهم مشاكل
+
+412
+00:29:23,100 --> 00:29:27,680
+عقلية، اللي مش راكزين .. عندهم مشاكل في .. في
+
+413
+00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:29,300
+العقل، ال mental ill دي disabled people، ماندهاش
+
+414
+00:29:29,300 --> 00:29:31,320
+تقول disabled physically، لكن عندهم mentally ill
+
+415
+00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:34,700
+people، هدول ال mentally ill people في ناس عندهم
+
+416
+00:29:34,700 --> 00:29:39,080
+ثرواتمثلا أبوه غني، أمه غنية، سته غنية، المهم
+
+417
+00:29:39,080 --> 00:29:42,520
+بالأخير في عنده ثروة هذه الثروة we cannot leave
+
+418
+00:29:42,520 --> 00:29:47,280
+according to the investment law these people have
+
+419
+00:29:47,280 --> 00:29:50,140
+to be sponsored or have to be sponsored by
+
+420
+00:29:50,140 --> 00:29:52,320
+investment company لازم ال investment company هي
+
+421
+00:29:52,320 --> 00:29:56,980
+تشرف و تدير الاستثمارات تبعته طب إذا ال investor
+
+422
+00:29:56,980 --> 00:29:59,780
+manager design a wrong investment policy who
+
+423
+00:29:59,780 --> 00:30:04,020
+discover this؟مين بدو يتقلل؟ monitoring لازم
+
+424
+00:30:04,020 --> 00:30:07,980
+monitoring طب هدول حرام يعني ال ال people هدول إذا
+
+425
+00:30:07,980 --> 00:30:11,660
+ماحفش حد يدير باله على أموالهم بطريقة صحيحة
+
+426
+00:30:11,660 --> 00:30:15,340
+بالأخير هيصفوا في الشوارع okay where is the social
+
+427
+00:30:15,340 --> 00:30:18,970
+responsibility؟وإذا .. إذا ال investor manager
+
+428
+00:30:18,970 --> 00:30:22,830
+mistakenly bought the wrong investment policy إذا
+
+429
+00:30:22,830 --> 00:30:25,330
+حاطت ال wrong investment policy معاكلام هي ..
+
+430
+00:30:25,330 --> 00:30:29,570
+هيكون ال .. so فى ناس هيكونوا are separated ..
+
+431
+00:30:29,570 --> 00:30:33,470
+separate management looking at the .. the
+
+432
+00:30:33,470 --> 00:30:35,770
+investment policy and .. and evaluate the
+
+433
+00:30:35,770 --> 00:30:39,650
+investment policy before kicking off the plan
+
+434
+00:30:39,650 --> 00:30:44,710
+kicking off يعني قبل ما إحنا نبدأ عملية ال .. ال
+
+435
+00:30:44,710 --> 00:30:48,690
+investmentsيعني so the monitoring is starting from
+
+436
+00:30:48,690 --> 00:30:53,910
+the first to the end وبيبدوا يتبعوهم كيف الإجراءات
+
+437
+00:30:53,910 --> 00:30:59,410
+اللي .. اللي بتتم then in the execution we have to
+
+438
+00:30:59,410 --> 00:31:03,360
+look at the portfolio constructionportfolio
+
+439
+00:31:03,360 --> 00:31:06,280
+construction لما احنا نبدأ portfolio المحفظة
+
+440
+00:31:06,280 --> 00:31:09,900
+الاستثمارية ل .. المحفظة الاستثمارية لازم تكون to
+
+441
+00:31:09,900 --> 00:31:12,600
+meet the .. the investor objective يعني is linked
+
+442
+00:31:12,600 --> 00:31:17,060
+with the investor objective asset allocation وين
+
+443
+00:31:17,060 --> 00:31:20,420
+احنا هنستثمر الأموال تبعتنا هنستثمرهم ب stocks ولا
+
+444
+00:31:20,420 --> 00:31:22,740
+ب bonds ولا ب equities ولا .. وين .. وين احنا
+
+445
+00:31:22,740 --> 00:31:26,920
+هنستثمرهمو هدول كمان بنعملهم monitoring portfolio
+
+446
+00:31:26,920 --> 00:31:30,160
+optimization or optimizing نعمل portfolio
+
+447
+00:31:30,160 --> 00:31:33,380
+optimizing يعني قدر المستطاع نعمل تخفيض في تكاليف
+
+448
+00:31:33,380 --> 00:31:39,020
+إدارة ال portfolio and finally in this process
+
+449
+00:31:39,020 --> 00:31:45,220
+implementation and execution تنفيذ و تطبيق كمان
+
+450
+00:31:45,220 --> 00:31:47,920
+مرة شوفوا ال monitoring هي موجودة هنا و في
+
+451
+00:31:47,920 --> 00:31:51,660
+monitoring تحتas I said it is from the first and
+
+452
+00:31:51,660 --> 00:31:54,560
+from the end يعني في ال .. في البداية و في النهاية
+
+453
+00:31:54,560 --> 00:31:59,920
+لازم يكون عندي on-time monitoring on-time
+
+454
+00:31:59,920 --> 00:32:03,100
+monitoring يكون في عندي في نفس ال .. كل مستند
+
+455
+00:32:03,100 --> 00:32:07,940
+بيطلع من ال .. ال execution department مباشرة is a
+
+456
+00:32:07,940 --> 00:32:11,500
+copy going to the monitoring department أو
+
+457
+00:32:11,500 --> 00:32:15,360
+auditing departmentيعني ال .. أي .. أي خطوة احنا
+
+458
+00:32:15,360 --> 00:32:18,840
+بنعملها في .. في التطبيق مباشرة بروح نسخة منها على
+
+459
+00:32:18,840 --> 00:32:22,660
+ال .. ال .. يعني مثلا لو احنا روحنا .. اشترينا
+
+460
+00:32:22,660 --> 00:32:28,540
+قطعة أرض مثلا و هذه قطعة أرض مثلا اللي هتتناسب مع
+
+461
+00:32:28,540 --> 00:32:31,840
+ال investment .. ال investment policyيعني
+
+462
+00:32:31,840 --> 00:32:36,340
+اشتريناها في مناطق يعني فيها مخاطر و احنا قاعدين
+
+463
+00:32:36,340 --> 00:32:40,680
+نستثمر في أموال الفقراء أو أموال مثلا الأيتام طبعا
+
+464
+00:32:40,680 --> 00:32:43,980
+هذه subject to risk subject to high risk فمباشرة
+
+465
+00:32:43,980 --> 00:32:48,860
+من حد ما يصير يعني بطلب أذن لشراء أذن شراء العقد
+
+466
+00:32:48,860 --> 00:32:51,100
+شراء الأرض فمباشرة أذن الشراء بروح على ال
+
+467
+00:32:51,100 --> 00:32:52,860
+monitoring بيجيوا تعالوا ال monitoring يقولوهم
+
+468
+00:32:52,860 --> 00:32:55,560
+اسمعوا شو هذا اللي بتسويوا انتوا فيه you cannot do
+
+469
+00:32:55,560 --> 00:32:59,120
+this because this is high risk فبروحوا برجعولهم
+
+470
+00:32:59,120 --> 00:33:02,920
+إياهاand they do it again فبتلاحظوا أنه في
+
+471
+00:33:02,920 --> 00:33:09,220
+monitoring on time اتأكد لأنه هي .. so the failure
+
+472
+00:33:09,220 --> 00:33:14,920
+لما يسير في انهيار الانهيار بيكون ال probability
+
+473
+00:33:14,920 --> 00:33:19,640
+of the failure is very very small يعني احتمال أن
+
+474
+00:33:19,640 --> 00:33:24,730
+الخسارة بتكون كتير محدودةلأنه في monitoring
+
+475
+00:33:24,730 --> 00:33:28,790
+economic and market input factors بنشوف .. بنتابع
+
+476
+00:33:28,790 --> 00:33:32,350
+الاختصاد و ال social things و كذا و بنشوف كيف ممكن
+
+477
+00:33:32,350 --> 00:33:40,190
+يتأثر على ال .. الاستثمار and the last thing which
+
+478
+00:33:40,190 --> 00:33:44,790
+is not the last because it is endless process it
+
+479
+00:33:44,790 --> 00:33:51,270
+is endless process endless no end so it is endless
+
+480
+00:33:51,270 --> 00:33:56,540
+process feedbackالتأكيد هو إجراء مجالات الانفصار
+
+481
+00:33:56,540 --> 00:34:02,940
+والمجالات الانفصارية
+
+482
+00:34:04,100 --> 00:34:06,820
+if we have problems so where is the problems and
+
+483
+00:34:06,820 --> 00:34:10,120
+then we update the process, the policy if we meet
+
+484
+00:34:10,120 --> 00:34:14,200
+the objective then we develop these objectives
+
+485
+00:34:14,200 --> 00:34:17,020
+بنعمل developing لل objectives يعني خلينا نعطيكوا
+
+486
+00:34:17,020 --> 00:34:20,100
+مثال insurance companies اليوم ال insurance
+
+487
+00:34:20,100 --> 00:34:24,520
+companies هم أكتر الناس مالكين لل investment
+
+488
+00:34:24,520 --> 00:34:30,250
+companies شركات التأمينفهدول حققوا أهداف التأمين
+
+489
+00:34:30,250 --> 00:34:35,730
+تبعهم فصار عندهم في عندهم فائد فهذا الفائد ساعدهم
+
+490
+00:34:35,730 --> 00:34:40,390
+يفكروا في في في higher objectives في أهداف عالية
+
+491
+00:34:40,390 --> 00:34:43,990
+أكتر فصاروا to invest صار يعمل controlling over
+
+492
+00:34:43,990 --> 00:34:46,730
+some companies صاروا هم يسيطروا على بعض شركات
+
+493
+00:34:46,730 --> 00:34:52,010
+prestigious companies يعني شركات معروفة ومشهورة أن
+
+494
+00:34:52,010 --> 00:34:57,980
+هم بيسيطروا عليهاthis is example of components of
+
+495
+00:34:57,980 --> 00:35:00,900
+the investment management process هده أمثلة ممكن
+
+496
+00:35:00,900 --> 00:35:04,660
+ترجع أقولها this is example of components of the
+
+497
+00:35:04,660 --> 00:35:07,780
+investment policy statement يعني مثلا أشوف أول
+
+498
+00:35:07,780 --> 00:35:10,700
+واحدة brief client description أعطينا معلومات عامة
+
+499
+00:35:10,700 --> 00:35:14,900
+عن نفسك شو أنت شو إسمك غيرت إسمك ولا لأ؟ إيش ال
+
+500
+00:35:14,900 --> 00:35:19,040
+nicknames بتستخدمها؟ لأنه يعني احنا بالعالم العربي
+
+501
+00:35:19,040 --> 00:35:23,680
+ال nicknames كتير عندنا يعني أبو محمد who is أبو
+
+502
+00:35:23,680 --> 00:35:27,870
+محمدأبو علي, who is ابو علي؟ اعطيني اسمك and
+
+503
+00:35:27,870 --> 00:35:31,210
+possible nicknames اسمك وال .. وال possible
+
+504
+00:35:31,210 --> 00:35:33,770
+nicknames بتاعتك اعطيني ايها, purpose of
+
+505
+00:35:33,770 --> 00:35:36,470
+establishing policies and guidelines و ال duties,
+
+506
+00:35:36,930 --> 00:35:40,330
+إيش بتشتغل و إيش بتعمل و .. و مين ال referees
+
+507
+00:35:40,330 --> 00:35:43,810
+تبعونك و مين صحابك و مين قصصك كل هذه we have to ..
+
+508
+00:35:43,810 --> 00:35:49,550
+يعني مرة أنا بيت ك questionnaire كانوا .. هو سألني
+
+509
+00:35:49,550 --> 00:35:52,230
+بال questionnaire who are the close friends for
+
+510
+00:35:52,230 --> 00:35:57,910
+youمن أقرب أصدقاء عندك؟ طيب جوابت ال .. جوابت okay
+
+511
+00:35:57,910 --> 00:36:01,290
+فلان وفلان وفلان حتى أنه تعمل ال cheating صعب طيب
+
+512
+00:36:01,290 --> 00:36:06,250
+أعطينا ال emails تبعتهم if it is possible if it is
+
+513
+00:36:06,250 --> 00:36:11,010
+possible طبعا بالحالة هم مباشرة من حد ما أنه to
+
+514
+00:36:11,010 --> 00:36:14,850
+fill this application نسخة من ال .. من ال .. من ال
+
+515
+00:36:14,850 --> 00:36:19,690
+application هتروح لهم و هيسألوهم أسئلة very very
+
+516
+00:36:19,690 --> 00:36:24,110
+confidential questionsأه confidential questions
+
+517
+00:36:24,110 --> 00:36:29,710
+يعني مثلا راح واحد جاب يعني كتير بتصير جاب مليون
+
+518
+00:36:29,710 --> 00:36:32,090
+دولار وحكى لشركة الاستثمارة أن أنا بدأ أستثمر
+
+519
+00:36:32,090 --> 00:36:39,110
+عندكم طب هدول يمكن زلمة حرامي يعني بنجوسان أو غسيل
+
+520
+00:36:39,110 --> 00:36:42,650
+أموال أو .. أو الاخره so they have to ensure them
+
+521
+00:36:42,650 --> 00:36:46,810
+لأن هدول they are not put their .. their position
+
+522
+00:36:46,810 --> 00:36:54,210
+at risk محطوش ال position تبعهم at riskOkay ف we
+
+523
+00:36:54,210 --> 00:37:02,290
+have to be careful on doing this كمان
+
+524
+00:37:02,290 --> 00:37:06,450
+determining of portfolio policies حكيت عن
+
+525
+00:37:06,450 --> 00:37:09,210
+constraints و ال constraints فاكرين لما حكيت عن ال
+
+526
+00:37:09,210 --> 00:37:12,750
+objectives retain requirement risk ال constraints
+
+527
+00:37:12,750 --> 00:37:18,840
+اللي هي ال liquidityانت متى بدك .. في ناس بييجي و
+
+528
+00:37:18,840 --> 00:37:21,860
+بيقولوا انه انا بدى .. واجد مابدي مصاريه بدي
+
+529
+00:37:21,860 --> 00:37:27,400
+اياهم، طبعا؟ هدول liquidity يعني لازم تكون very
+
+530
+00:37:27,400 --> 00:37:31,620
+high، اعملهم investment في high liquid assets، في
+
+531
+00:37:31,620 --> 00:37:35,040
+ناس بيقولك لأ يعني انا الفلوس هذه مش بحتاجها لمدة
+
+532
+00:37:35,040 --> 00:37:41,070
+سنةفي ناس بيقولوا لأ انا هذه الفلوس ل .. مثلا ل ..
+
+533
+00:37:41,070 --> 00:37:44,030
+ل ال kids لما ي .. بعد 10 سنين 15 سنة لما يكبروا
+
+534
+00:37:44,030 --> 00:37:47,170
+في الجامعة مثلا واحد بيقول لأ هذه الفلوس لما انا
+
+535
+00:37:47,170 --> 00:37:52,190
+أسير retired لما انا أتقعد ف ال liquidity ال
+
+536
+00:37:52,190 --> 00:37:54,670
+horizon كدهش الفترة الزمنية اللي احنا هنستثمر فيها
+
+537
+00:37:54,670 --> 00:37:57,570
+في ناس بيقولك انا بدي تلات شهور فيه بدي سنة so we
+
+538
+00:37:57,570 --> 00:38:01,290
+have to study regulations ايش هي ال regulations
+
+539
+00:38:01,290 --> 00:38:05,320
+اللي تطبق؟لازم احنا نقول لل investors هذه هي ال
+
+540
+00:38:05,320 --> 00:38:10,300
+regulations إذا مثلا إذا أنت قلت بدي سنة جابل سنة
+
+541
+00:38:10,300 --> 00:38:13,760
+إذا تسحب فلوسك احنا هنعملك discount .. احنا هنعملك
+
+542
+00:38:13,760 --> 00:38:18,760
+chargeOkay إذا بدك تفل .. فلوسك لازم تبلغنا قبل
+
+543
+00:38:18,760 --> 00:38:23,560
+مثلا ب 40 يوم يعني high regulations أنت شخصيا لازم
+
+544
+00:38:23,560 --> 00:38:27,900
+أنت ت .. تطلب هذه الأفوا .. الأموال لا يحق لشخص
+
+545
+00:38:27,900 --> 00:38:30,960
+آخر أنه ي .. يتبادل هذه المعلومات يعني high
+
+546
+00:38:30,960 --> 00:38:34,160
+regulations بتخص ال .. ال investments ال taxes
+
+547
+00:38:34,160 --> 00:38:37,500
+كمان بيحطيله what is the level of tax he has to
+
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+pay كدهش الضريبة او هو if he want to invest in a
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+particular taxshields is fine يعني هو بي .. بي ..
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+بده يستثمر في .. في شغلات انه مابتدفعش tax
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+551
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+فبنحكيله unique needs هذه ال unique needs is
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+important احتياجات خاصة طبعا في الكتاب بيحكوا على
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+خاصة مثلا انه .. انه انا بدي ا .. ا .. I don't
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+want to invest in ..in wine companies in .. in
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+companies who producing wine يعني ت .. تعطونيش
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+مثلا تستثمريش أموالي في بنوك تستثمريش أموالي في
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+شركات تنتج الخمور تنتج .. يعني هاي some
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+constraints unique needs بعض الاحتياجات الخاصة حسب
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+موجود في الكتاب مثلا أنه في معاطب بالكتاب أنه ال
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+.. عادة في الفكر الأوروبي في الناحية الاقتصادية
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+562
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+الزوج والزوجة بيكونوا مشتركين في الحسابيعني هذا
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+أول شرط للزواج بيعتبروا أنه يكون في account مفتوح
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+للطرفين and they use this accountاه يحق للطرف هذا
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+يستخدم هذا ال .. فهذا is unique needs بعض احتياجات
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+خاصة ان ال investment companies asking انه تكون ال
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+567
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+.. ال .. ال .. ال couples are allowed to .. to
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+568
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+manage the investment ان هم يديروا هذا الاستثمار
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+569
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+طبعا هذه حاجات بتخص ال .. ال .. بعض المجتمعات
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+الغربية مثلا في بعض ال .. الناس بيقولك انا مابديش
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+استثمر في استثمارات مثلا تنتج سلاحاو استثمارات
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+572
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+مثلا تكون فيها شغلات محرمة بالشريعة الإسلامية او
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+573
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+مثلا في ناس .. انا شوفت ناس شرطهم انه مايستثمر ..
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+استثمروش في ال tobacco او بيسموها green .. green
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+funds green funds ايهاش green funds؟ انه انا بدي
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+576
+00:40:36,400 --> 00:40:39,820
+اموالي بس تستثمر في شركات ما .. لا ت .. ما بتتدخل
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+577
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+.. يعني ما بتستثمرش في ال tobacco industries في ال
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+578
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+..في الدخان حتى في ناس كمان العكس إذا في تبرعات
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+579
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+بيقبلوهاش يعني أنا شوفت جامعات في أوروبا إنه هذه
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+580
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+الجامعة بتقول شرطها إنه أنا لا أستقبل تبرعات من
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+581
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+شركات ال tobacco حقهم
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+ليش؟ عشان مايشجعهم مش إنهم ي .. فهذا جزء من ال
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+584
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+needsال policies لكل واحدة asset allocation لـ
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+liquidity, diversification, tax, risk positioning
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+586
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+هدول أمثلة خلينا بس هاي تفاصيلهم ال constraints
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+587
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+الليكودي تفاصيلها ال investment process ال
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+588
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+regulations تفاصيلها ال tax consideration و ال
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+589
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+unique needs ال policy statement هاي مثال على ال
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+590
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+policy statementOkay ال governance شرحتها بيكون
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+591
+00:41:40,260 --> 00:41:42,440
+عندى governance فى ال .. فى ال investments أنه كل
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+592
+00:41:42,440 --> 00:41:48,500
+واحد بيكون اللى واجبات و بيكون فى عندى internal
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+593
+00:41:48,500 --> 00:41:52,020
+and external managers monitoring the .. the
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+594
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+results كمان شرحناه و risk management appropriate
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+595
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+reporting عملية كتابة تقاريرلازم يكون كل فترة
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+596
+00:41:59,420 --> 00:42:01,900
+زمانية نعرف إيه إيش ال .. ال .. ال investment
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+597
+00:42:01,900 --> 00:42:05,940
+accountability مين مسئول في حالة الاستثمارات،
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+598
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+خسرات أو .. a course of actions in case of market
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+599
+00:42:09,300 --> 00:42:13,560
+طبعا هذا ال asset allocation شرحناه ب chapter one،
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+600
+00:42:13,560 --> 00:42:20,460
+تمام؟ but .. but صور إحنا نجف عند هذا الحد، عند
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+managing portfolio of individual investments
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diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/QdYL5k6QhxQ_raw.json b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/QdYL5k6QhxQ_raw.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..18c30a0ae5f567040c3f4ae792bc6fb9f70cc840
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/QdYL5k6QhxQ_raw.json
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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me", "tokens": [22488, 2304, 1975, 5172, 16095, 16472, 11296, 8608, 25528, 3794, 3660, 42963, 14851, 12984, 2304, 9640, 7251, 30544, 13412, 9778, 9381, 20449, 40294, 6156, 1211, 41779, 37495, 22653, 6816, 4032, 4724, 32887, 5016, 5296, 10721, 7578, 36764, 24401, 4032, 4724, 39648, 3224, 445, 1963, 322, 385], "avg_logprob": -0.2859042527827811, "compression_ratio": 1.251908396946565, "no_speech_prob": 1.7881393432617188e-07, "words": [{"start": 592.41, "end": 592.71, "word": "عدم", "probability": 0.5592041015625}, {"start": 592.71, "end": 592.95, "word": " افهم", "probability": 0.7062174479166666}, {"start": 592.95, "end": 593.19, "word": " انها", "probability": 0.5677490234375}, {"start": 593.19, "end": 593.51, "word": " سياسة", "probability": 0.97412109375}, {"start": 593.51, "end": 593.97, "word": " الاستثمار", "probability": 0.95205078125}, {"start": 593.97, "end": 594.53, "word": " يكون", "probability": 0.57318115234375}, {"start": 594.53, "end": 595.21, "word": " شخص", 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2181.53, "text": "من أقرب أصدقاء عندك؟ طيب جوابت ال .. جوابت okay فلان وفلان وفلان حتى أنه تعمل ال cheating صعب طيب أعطينا ال emails تبعتهم if it is possible if it is possible طبعا بالحالة هم مباشرة من حد ما أنه to fill this application نسخة من ال .. من ال .. من ال application هتروح لهم و هيسألوهم أسئلة very very confidential questions", "tokens": [27842, 5551, 4587, 25513, 5551, 9381, 3215, 4587, 16606, 43242, 4117, 22807, 23032, 1829, 3555, 10874, 14407, 3555, 2655, 2423, 4386, 10874, 14407, 3555, 2655, 1392, 6156, 1211, 7649, 4032, 5172, 1211, 7649, 4032, 5172, 1211, 7649, 11331, 49975, 14739, 3224, 6055, 25957, 1211, 2423, 18309, 20328, 3615, 3555, 23032, 1829, 3555, 5551, 3615, 9566, 1829, 8315, 2423, 12524, 6055, 3555, 34268, 16095, 498, 309, 307, 1944, 498, 309, 307, 1944, 23032, 3555, 3615, 995, 20666, 5016, 6027, 3660, 8032, 2304, 3714, 3555, 33599, 25720, 9154, 11331, 3215, 19446, 14739, 3224, 281, 2836, 341, 3861, 8717, 3794, 9778, 3660, 9154, 2423, 4386, 9154, 2423, 4386, 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new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..b222d82f77bb6f0768121be6db067a3bf9a4cd76
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/QdYL5k6QhxQ_raw.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,2412 @@
+1
+00:00:21,360 --> 00:00:24,760
+بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم اليوم ده نحكي عن ال chapter
+
+2
+00:00:24,760 --> 00:00:29,200
+الأخير في ال .. في ال investment و هذا chapter is
+
+3
+00:00:29,200 --> 00:00:34,060
+important لأنه من خلاله احنا بنقدر نعرف how to
+
+4
+00:00:34,060 --> 00:00:38,200
+invest كيف احنا نستثمر ال chapter السابقة عرفتنا
+
+5
+00:00:38,200 --> 00:00:41,900
+بال risk and return العقد و المخاطرة عرفتنا بال
+
+6
+00:00:41,900 --> 00:00:46,660
+asset allocation عرفتنا بال asset assessment تمام؟
+
+7
+00:00:46,660 --> 00:00:49,040
+هلأ ال .. ال chapter هذا بيحكي عن investment
+
+8
+00:00:49,040 --> 00:00:52,820
+policyهنركز على investment policy and the
+
+9
+00:00:52,820 --> 00:00:56,220
+framework of the CFA institution or institute اللي
+
+10
+00:00:56,220 --> 00:01:01,040
+هو charter of financial association طبعا في كل
+
+11
+00:01:01,040 --> 00:01:04,320
+دولة من الدول فيها عندنا مؤسسة بتضبط عملية
+
+12
+00:01:04,320 --> 00:01:08,850
+الاستثمار بتعمل regulations للاستثماررنظيم
+
+13
+00:01:08,850 --> 00:01:14,110
+للاستثمار و .. يعني مثلا احنا عندنا في .. في
+
+14
+00:01:14,110 --> 00:01:17,430
+فلسطين في عندنا الهيئة تشييع الاستثمار فبيكون
+
+15
+00:01:17,430 --> 00:01:20,910
+عندهم rules و هاد ال rules بتطبق يعني لابد ان
+
+16
+00:01:20,910 --> 00:01:25,850
+الشركات او ال individuals ي .. يتابعوا هاد ال ..
+
+17
+00:01:25,850 --> 00:01:31,310
+يطبقوا هاد التعليمات اهم
+
+18
+00:01:31,310 --> 00:01:35,640
+ال .. ال four stages of the investment processفي
+
+19
+00:01:35,640 --> 00:01:41,020
+عندنا أربع مراحل لاستثمار أو لعملية الاستثمار
+
+20
+00:01:41,020 --> 00:01:45,140
+المراحل الأولى specifying objectives انحدد الهدف
+
+21
+00:01:45,140 --> 00:01:48,820
+what is your objective ليش أنتوا بيكونوا بتستثمروا
+
+22
+00:01:48,820 --> 00:01:55,820
+okay and objectives are different from one to one
+
+23
+00:01:55,820 --> 00:01:59,280
+يعني مثلا ال young people they have different
+
+24
+00:01:59,280 --> 00:02:03,180
+objectives than older peopleالناس الصغار في السن
+
+25
+00:02:03,180 --> 00:02:07,840
+اللي هم أهداف تختلف عن الناس ال .. widows ladies
+
+26
+00:02:07,840 --> 00:02:10,900
+have different objectives than the married ladies
+
+27
+00:02:10,900 --> 00:02:14,520
+يعني النساء مثلا الأرامل عندهم أهداف تختلف عن
+
+28
+00:02:14,520 --> 00:02:20,840
+المتزوجات ال single ladies have different than the
+
+29
+00:02:20,840 --> 00:02:24,570
+married ladies ال .. ال kidsthey have different
+
+30
+00:02:24,570 --> 00:02:28,250
+objectives than the mature people يعني الأولاد
+
+31
+00:02:28,250 --> 00:02:31,670
+الظاهر عندهم أهداف تختلف عن ال .. so from the
+
+32
+00:02:31,670 --> 00:02:35,250
+investment point of view as a manager كمدير في
+
+33
+00:02:35,250 --> 00:02:37,810
+الاستثمار when .. when you are receiving or when
+
+34
+00:02:37,810 --> 00:02:41,050
+you have a chat or talk with some people you have
+
+35
+00:02:41,050 --> 00:02:44,410
+to consider what is or what are the .. the
+
+36
+00:02:44,410 --> 00:02:48,710
+objectives ايش هي أهدافهم by time people become
+
+37
+00:02:48,710 --> 00:02:51,190
+more mature than the .. than before الناس بيبدوا
+
+38
+00:02:51,190 --> 00:02:55,210
+أكتر عقلاءمن الماضي كل ما هم بتقدروا .. so they
+
+39
+00:02:55,210 --> 00:02:59,750
+are asking for a moderate risk and moderate return
+
+40
+00:02:59,750 --> 00:03:10,790
+بيسألوا على عائد متوسط مع مخاطر متوسطة بيسألوا
+
+41
+00:03:10,790 --> 00:03:10,910
+على عائد متوسط مع مخاطر متوسطة بيسألوا على عائد
+
+42
+00:03:10,910 --> 00:03:11,270
+متوسط مع مخاطر متوسطة بيسألوا على عائد متوسط مع
+
+43
+00:03:11,270 --> 00:03:11,270
+مخاطر متوسطة بيسألوا على عائد متوسط مع مخاطر
+
+44
+00:03:11,270 --> 00:03:13,610
+متوسطة بيسألوا على عائد متوسط مع مخاطر متوسطة
+
+45
+00:03:13,610 --> 00:03:16,470
+بيسألوا على عائد متوسط مع مخاطر متوسط مع مخاطر
+
+46
+00:03:16,470 --> 00:03:18,470
+متوسط مع مخاطر متوسط مع مخاطر متوسط مع مخاطر متوسط
+
+47
+00:03:18,470 --> 00:03:22,050
+مع مخاطر متوسط مع مخاطر متوس
+
+48
+00:03:25,470 --> 00:03:28,930
+then the second things is they specify constraints
+
+49
+00:03:28,930 --> 00:03:35,170
+what it means constraints some limitations to your
+
+50
+00:03:35,170 --> 00:03:38,510
+investments بعض المتطلبات اللي .. اللي احنا
+
+51
+00:03:38,510 --> 00:03:41,560
+بنحتاجها أثناء الاستثمارادم يسميها constraints
+
+52
+00:03:41,560 --> 00:03:47,780
+يعني مثلا بنيجي بنحكي لبعض الناس they have concern
+
+53
+00:03:47,780 --> 00:03:51,700
+to receive cash every month or to receive cash
+
+54
+00:03:51,700 --> 00:03:55,400
+every three months this is constraints some people
+
+55
+00:03:55,400 --> 00:03:57,260
+they don't like to invest in a particular
+
+56
+00:03:57,260 --> 00:04:01,890
+companiesيعني بعض الناس مابدون مش ي .. ي ..
+
+57
+00:04:01,890 --> 00:04:05,390
+يستثمروا في بعض الشركات for instance Muslims they
+
+58
+00:04:05,390 --> 00:04:10,410
+don't like to invest in .. in companies let's say
+
+59
+00:04:10,410 --> 00:04:16,650
+produce or provide pork meat يعني المسلمين مثلا
+
+60
+00:04:16,650 --> 00:04:22,090
+بيحبوش انه يستثمروا في شركات بتنتج اللحم الخنزير
+
+61
+00:04:22,840 --> 00:04:25,920
+because this is according to islamic sharia it is
+
+62
+00:04:25,920 --> 00:04:30,300
+violated the islamic sharia لأن هذا ضد الشريعة
+
+63
+00:04:30,300 --> 00:04:34,260
+الإسلامية so this is some constraints you have to
+
+64
+00:04:34,260 --> 00:04:38,320
+know the constraints of these people يعني لازم
+
+65
+00:04:38,320 --> 00:04:41,680
+نعرف شو بتطلباتهم what they need what the
+
+66
+00:04:41,680 --> 00:04:45,020
+limitations of their investments okay
+
+67
+00:04:49,080 --> 00:04:53,820
+formulating policy formulating policy it means ان
+
+68
+00:04:53,820 --> 00:04:57,660
+احنا بعد ما نحدد الهدف اللي هو ال policy yes ان
+
+69
+00:04:57,660 --> 00:05:01,320
+احنا نحط سياسة الاستثمار in which area we invest
+
+70
+00:05:01,320 --> 00:05:04,300
+what is the level of risk what is the level of
+
+71
+00:05:04,300 --> 00:05:09,190
+returnOkay and we will go in details about this
+
+72
+00:05:09,190 --> 00:05:12,370
+Monitoring and updating portfolio after setting
+
+73
+00:05:12,370 --> 00:05:15,350
+the policy and we implement the policy بعد ما احنا
+
+74
+00:05:15,350 --> 00:05:18,970
+نحط ال policy سياسة و ننفذها then we have to
+
+75
+00:05:18,970 --> 00:05:21,350
+monitor this policy لازم نعمل monitoring
+
+76
+00:05:21,350 --> 00:05:25,790
+Monitoring يعني نتابع and to receive feedback يعني
+
+77
+00:05:25,790 --> 00:05:30,900
+for instanceإذا كانت ال monitoring .. إذا كان ال
+
+78
+00:05:30,900 --> 00:05:36,340
+return و ال risk احنا we said the return for
+
+79
+00:05:36,340 --> 00:05:41,000
+instance is seven percent and after three months
+
+80
+00:05:41,000 --> 00:05:44,980
+we calculate the return and we find it is three
+
+81
+00:05:44,980 --> 00:05:48,580
+percent so what we can do is just we try to update
+
+82
+00:05:48,580 --> 00:05:52,200
+our policy to see what is the problem to evaluate
+
+83
+00:05:52,200 --> 00:05:57,700
+the .. to see what are the challengesوالتحديات هذه
+
+84
+00:05:57,700 --> 00:06:04,980
+تجعل الراتب تتخلص من 7%، فهي مهمة التحكم،
+
+85
+00:06:04,980 --> 00:06:10,260
+التتعامل، وتبقى متتعامل مع ال .. ومع ذلك، الناس
+
+86
+00:06:10,260 --> 00:06:15,440
+الذين يتحكمون بطريقة الاستثمار ليسوا نفس الناس
+
+87
+00:06:15,440 --> 00:06:18,810
+الذين يقومون بوضع الطريقةيعني الناس اللي بيحطوا
+
+88
+00:06:18,810 --> 00:06:21,930
+السياسة الاستثمار مش هم الناس اللي بي .. اللي
+
+89
+00:06:21,930 --> 00:06:23,870
+بيعملوا monitoring يعني شوفوا في ال .. في ال
+
+90
+00:06:23,870 --> 00:06:26,670
+governance أنتوا درستوا governance ال governance
+
+91
+00:06:26,670 --> 00:06:29,990
+is .. is very important people who are evaluating
+
+92
+00:06:29,990 --> 00:06:34,030
+the .. setting the objectives يعني الناس اللي ..
+
+93
+00:06:34,030 --> 00:06:39,860
+يعني اجينا مثلا اجينا واحد شخص عاديبدو يستثمر و
+
+94
+00:06:39,860 --> 00:06:43,480
+احنا بشركة استثمارات فبنجلس معاها بنشوف و بناخد
+
+95
+00:06:43,480 --> 00:06:47,560
+نعمله questionnaire نعمله questionnaire و على فكرة
+
+96
+00:06:47,560 --> 00:06:51,600
+في عندنا .. في عندنا sample في عندنا sample على ال
+
+97
+00:06:51,600 --> 00:07:01,180
+questionnaire في صفحة 954 يعني
+
+98
+00:07:01,180 --> 00:07:04,460
+في عندنا صفحة .. يعني questionnaire في حوالي هيك
+
+99
+00:07:04,460 --> 00:07:12,730
+سبعة أسئلةهي ال .. ال question البسيط صفحة
+
+100
+00:07:12,730 --> 00:07:18,370
+954 يعني مثلا .. مثلا نسأل ال investor هاي الفلوس
+
+101
+00:07:18,370 --> 00:07:22,070
+من وين؟ نسأله يعني very .. very simple questions
+
+102
+00:07:22,070 --> 00:07:26,210
+the source of your .. your money من وين فلوسك؟
+
+103
+00:07:26,210 --> 00:07:31,870
+this is important لازم نعرف فلوسه من وين طبعا ليش
+
+104
+00:07:31,870 --> 00:07:34,950
+لأنه the source of investment lead us to the level
+
+105
+00:07:34,950 --> 00:07:39,340
+of riskتعطينا مستوى المخاطر، يعني إذا هي المصاري
+
+106
+00:07:39,340 --> 00:07:43,360
+تبعته تحويشة عمره، فمعناه الكلام أنه بنحطله بيها
+
+107
+00:07:43,360 --> 00:07:50,600
+في secure investments، يعني ب .. باستثمارات آمنة،
+
+108
+00:07:50,600 --> 00:07:54,120
+إذا .. إذا كان هو بيحكي okay this is for instance
+
+109
+00:07:54,120 --> 00:08:02,290
+.. this is my .. my annual incomeيعني كل سنة
+
+110
+00:08:02,290 --> 00:08:05,210
+بيجيني هذا ال income it's fine يعني هذا for
+
+111
+00:08:05,210 --> 00:08:09,530
+instance انا businessman ف he is more capable to
+
+112
+00:08:09,530 --> 00:08:13,330
+hold more risk than retired people يعني بيكون مصدر
+
+113
+00:08:13,330 --> 00:08:18,150
+الأموال تبعه أمن و ممكن هو يغامر أكتر من شخص هو كل
+
+114
+00:08:18,150 --> 00:08:22,210
+ال savings تبعتهم طيب إيش ال areas اللي انت حابب
+
+115
+00:08:22,210 --> 00:08:26,690
+تستثمر فيها؟ وين انت حابب تستثمر؟ نسأله أسئلة مثلا
+
+116
+00:08:26,690 --> 00:08:31,490
+شو .. قداش عدد الأسرة؟لأن كل ما كبرت هذا الأسرة كل
+
+117
+00:08:31,490 --> 00:08:35,850
+ما كان فيه conservative أكتر طيب بتزوج ولا أعزف؟
+
+118
+00:08:35,850 --> 00:08:41,570
+ساكن بيت ملك ولا أجار؟ لأن كل .. إذا كان مالك
+
+119
+00:08:41,570 --> 00:08:45,550
+بيكون .. بيكون قدرته على المخاطر أعلى من لو كان
+
+120
+00:08:45,550 --> 00:08:50,230
+اتأجر البيت لأنه فيه بيكون أكتر .. مقيم ولا .. ولا
+
+121
+00:08:50,230 --> 00:08:53,510
+أجنبي؟ مثلا في بعض الدول مثلا في الخليج العربي ولا
+
+122
+00:08:53,510 --> 00:08:58,480
+بال .. ولا بأوروبا بسأل أنت مقيم ولا أجنبي؟يعني
+
+123
+00:08:58,480 --> 00:09:01,560
+مواطن ولا أجنبي فإذا كان مواطن بيكون فيه ال risk
+
+124
+00:09:01,560 --> 00:09:04,460
+تبقى أقل من ال .. إذا كان أجنبي because the
+
+125
+00:09:04,460 --> 00:09:06,440
+foreign people they can easily .. they can leave
+
+126
+00:09:06,440 --> 00:09:10,400
+the country at anytime لأن هدول ممكن يغادروا البلد
+
+127
+00:09:10,400 --> 00:09:13,280
+في أي وقت so you have to be careful with them so
+
+128
+00:09:13,280 --> 00:09:15,640
+this is very important when you are determining
+
+129
+00:09:15,640 --> 00:09:18,840
+the level of risk and when you are designing the
+
+130
+00:09:18,840 --> 00:09:22,600
+policy so الناس اللي بيحطوا ال objectives و ال
+
+131
+00:09:22,600 --> 00:09:27,000
+constraints بيكون عبارة عن ال .. some peopleOkay
+
+132
+00:09:27,000 --> 00:09:31,020
+different people setting the policy and different
+
+133
+00:09:31,020 --> 00:09:35,880
+people reporting or monitoring the policy يعني
+
+134
+00:09:35,880 --> 00:09:38,400
+بيكون تقريبا أنه تلت أشخاص طالما إحنا بنحكي عن
+
+135
+00:09:38,400 --> 00:09:41,660
+investment companies شركات الاستثمار و للأسف شديد
+
+136
+00:09:41,660 --> 00:09:45,300
+عشان نعمل reflection طالما إحنا بنحكي عن مناطق
+
+137
+00:09:45,300 --> 00:09:49,980
+السلطة الفلسطينية في كتير مشاكل بتصير بسبب عدم
+
+138
+00:09:49,980 --> 00:09:53,510
+فهمنا ل investment policyعدم افهم انها سياسة
+
+139
+00:09:53,510 --> 00:09:56,990
+الاستثمار يكون شخص معاه فلوس يعني saving و بروح
+
+140
+00:09:56,990 --> 00:10:00,700
+لأى واحد و بقوله just invest on meو هذا الشخص اللي
+
+141
+00:10:00,700 --> 00:10:03,880
+بيعمل investment هو بيحط نفسه ال objective و هو
+
+142
+00:10:03,880 --> 00:10:05,980
+نفسه بيحط ال design policy و هو نفسه بيعمل ال
+
+143
+00:10:05,980 --> 00:10:09,860
+monitoring و ال evaluating كمان لازم يكون في ناس
+
+144
+00:10:09,860 --> 00:10:13,240
+خارج ال .. ال .. هذه ال company some governmental
+
+145
+00:10:13,240 --> 00:10:16,200
+institutions they have to keep their eyes on these
+
+146
+00:10:16,200 --> 00:10:20,220
+institutions يعني لازم يخلوا بقى انهم يتطلع على
+
+147
+00:10:20,220 --> 00:10:24,880
+هذه ال institutions حتى يتأكدوا ان هدول they are
+
+148
+00:10:24,880 --> 00:10:28,060
+following the rules and they are not putting the
+
+149
+00:10:28,060 --> 00:10:32,350
+people money at riskيعني مايحطوش مصاري الناس تحت
+
+150
+00:10:32,350 --> 00:10:35,770
+الخطر، يعني أعطيكم مثال بسيط، إذا كان .. إذا كان
+
+151
+00:10:35,770 --> 00:10:40,850
+investment manager لما حدد ال investment manager
+
+152
+00:10:40,850 --> 00:10:45,750
+اجاله مثلا .. أعطيتكم مثال مثلا، بدوا يستثمر
+
+153
+00:10:45,750 --> 00:10:50,520
+الأيتامOkay طبعا أكيد أنه the level of risk is
+
+154
+00:10:50,520 --> 00:10:54,160
+very low مستوى المخاطر تبع دول الناس بيكون مخفض
+
+155
+00:10:54,160 --> 00:10:58,900
+هذا ال investor manager he or she should have a
+
+156
+00:10:58,900 --> 00:11:01,220
+good experience to manage people money لازم يكون
+
+157
+00:11:01,220 --> 00:11:05,700
+عنده خبرة كويسة في استثمار الأموال فإذا هذا الراجل
+
+158
+00:11:05,700 --> 00:11:10,360
+عمل خسائر 95% of the orphanages people money إذا
+
+159
+00:11:10,360 --> 00:11:15,270
+خسر الناس 95% من أموالهمهذا المفروض يعني يكون في
+
+160
+00:11:15,270 --> 00:11:21,430
+legal issues against him يكون في إجراءات قانونية
+
+161
+00:11:21,430 --> 00:11:28,190
+لإن هو .. هو عمل evaluation okay و عمل investment
+
+162
+00:11:28,190 --> 00:11:32,850
+policy و بعدين خسر الناس فلوسهم ف legally قانونيا
+
+163
+00:11:33,480 --> 00:11:37,180
+في قانون الشركات الاستثمار المفروض he has to .. to
+
+164
+00:11:37,180 --> 00:11:40,280
+be responsible about the .. about this investment،
+
+165
+00:11:40,280 --> 00:11:43,740
+بعكس .. بعكس لو كان آه لازم يتحمل المسؤولية، بعكس
+
+166
+00:11:43,740 --> 00:11:47,120
+طبعا احنا بنحكي عن قانون الشركات الاستثمار، هذا في
+
+167
+00:11:47,120 --> 00:11:51,780
+ال united statesهدويا في الولايات المتحدة و أوروبا
+
+168
+00:11:51,780 --> 00:11:57,420
+يعني مثلا هدول الناس اللي mislead
+
+169
+00:11:57,420 --> 00:12:01,360
+أو يسيئوا استثمار أموال الناس بعكس لو انا اعطيكم
+
+170
+00:12:01,360 --> 00:12:05,200
+مثال تاني لو في ناس very high risk و خسرنالهم مش
+
+171
+00:12:05,200 --> 00:12:09,400
+مشكلة بس الناس ال low risk و روحنا خسرنالهم
+
+172
+00:12:09,400 --> 00:12:14,140
+مصاريهم كلهم it is a problem فإنه احنا ال investor
+
+173
+00:12:14,140 --> 00:12:20,330
+manager لازم يكون is efficientلازم يكون كفق و إلا
+
+174
+00:12:20,330 --> 00:12:24,830
+مابنفعش يكون هو .. يعني مش أي واحد والله فتح دكانة
+
+175
+00:12:24,830 --> 00:12:27,710
+استثمار و قال يلا بنستثمر لأم مصاري هالناس و
+
+176
+00:12:27,710 --> 00:12:30,830
+بالأخير لأنه هذا بدخل في ال .. في .. في قضايا
+
+177
+00:12:30,830 --> 00:12:35,810
+الأمن الاقتصاديوإذا الأمن اقتصادي يعني جمعنا
+
+178
+00:12:35,810 --> 00:12:38,970
+مليارات الدولارات وراحت خسرة الدولة وبالتالي
+
+179
+00:12:38,970 --> 00:12:42,770
+الدولة هي مفروض .. مفترض أنه تسد لكن الدولة اللي
+
+180
+00:12:42,770 --> 00:12:48,250
+مابتستطعش تدير أو تراقب هذه شركات الاستثمار هتصور
+
+181
+00:12:48,250 --> 00:12:51,970
+هتعمل فوضى في البلد وبالتالي يعني بالنسبة ل
+
+182
+00:12:51,970 --> 00:12:55,650
+investment regulations we have toto .. to consider
+
+183
+00:12:55,650 --> 00:12:58,310
+the importance of monitoring the investment
+
+184
+00:12:58,310 --> 00:13:02,030
+companies فعشان هيك ال CFA is important هدول CFA
+
+185
+00:13:02,030 --> 00:13:05,530
+أو الهيئة تجيع الاستثمار او .. او قاين الاستثمار
+
+186
+00:13:05,530 --> 00:13:11,210
+كتير مهمة ان احنا نعرفهاو هذا السبب انه انا جبتكم
+
+187
+00:13:11,210 --> 00:13:14,710
+يعني .. يعني باللقاءات الأخيرة Specifying
+
+188
+00:13:14,710 --> 00:13:21,690
+objectives كيف احنا نحدد ال objectives Investment
+
+189
+00:13:21,690 --> 00:13:24,930
+managers must assess the level of risk must خدوا
+
+190
+00:13:24,930 --> 00:13:30,410
+بالكم must يعني مش شد ولا .. ولا would ولا ..
+
+191
+00:13:30,410 --> 00:13:33,830
+الزام انه يعملوا assessmentلازم يعملوا إيش؟
+
+192
+00:13:33,830 --> 00:13:38,330
+assessment لأنه إذا عملوا assessment غلط who is in
+
+193
+00:13:38,330 --> 00:13:43,490
+charge؟ مين المسئول؟ مش ال investors هم ال
+
+194
+00:13:43,490 --> 00:13:47,570
+investment managers ال investment managers هم they
+
+195
+00:13:47,570 --> 00:13:51,690
+are responsible they are in charge investment
+
+196
+00:13:51,690 --> 00:13:54,230
+managers must assess the level of risk investors
+
+197
+00:13:54,230 --> 00:13:58,920
+can tolerate in pursuit of higher returnsيعني لازم
+
+198
+00:13:58,920 --> 00:14:05,380
+هم يعملوا تقييم للمستثمرين
+
+199
+00:14:05,380 --> 00:14:09,620
+ويعرفوا جداش مستوي المخاطر اللي ممكن يتحملوه وجداش
+
+200
+00:14:09,620 --> 00:14:12,960
+العائد اللي ممكن هم يطلبوه، هذا مسئولية من؟
+
+201
+00:14:12,960 --> 00:14:14,240
+مسئولية ال investment managers
+
+202
+00:14:20,760 --> 00:14:24,100
+Okay يعمى كتير investment managers راحوا على
+
+203
+00:14:24,100 --> 00:14:29,620
+المحاكم وانحبسوا لأنهم .. لأن هذي باعتبار حسب
+
+204
+00:14:29,620 --> 00:14:32,240
+القانون الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية و في ال UK كمان
+
+205
+00:14:32,240 --> 00:14:38,040
+بيعتبروا ان هذي أمانة ال .. يعني as a trustees
+
+206
+00:14:38,040 --> 00:14:42,860
+يعني كأمناء على أموال الناس انت المخاطر تبعتي مثلا
+
+207
+00:14:42,860 --> 00:14:47,740
+احتمال ان انا اخسر 5%إذا تجاوزت الخسارة تبعتي 5%
+
+208
+00:14:47,740 --> 00:14:52,660
+you have to close the fund يعني أنت قدرت كمدير
+
+209
+00:14:52,660 --> 00:14:55,660
+استثمار أنه انا احتمالات الخسارة من رأس مالي 5% is
+
+210
+00:14:55,660 --> 00:15:01,040
+5% is fine لكن إذا تجاوزت هذا المبلغ 5% 10% 12%
+
+211
+00:15:01,040 --> 00:15:04,460
+لازم تسكروا الاستثمار أو خلاص يعني يعمل
+
+212
+00:15:04,460 --> 00:15:08,140
+liquidation لل investment أحسن ما يروح يخسر الناس
+
+213
+00:15:08,140 --> 00:15:12,200
+بقية الأموال تبعتهمObjectives and risks tolerance
+
+214
+00:15:12,200 --> 00:15:15,740
+differ by type of investor، هذا حكيناه، يعني ال
+
+215
+00:15:15,740 --> 00:15:19,720
+risk و ال return تختلف من شخص إلى آخر، okay؟ يعني
+
+216
+00:15:19,720 --> 00:15:24,460
+في ناس بتحمل و يخسروا 5% من أموالهم و في ناس بتحمل
+
+217
+00:15:24,460 --> 00:15:28,360
+و يخسروا 50% من أموالهم، it dependsيعني زي ال
+
+218
+00:15:28,360 --> 00:15:31,680
+people they are enjoying with rest ممكن يخسروا 95%
+
+219
+00:15:31,680 --> 00:15:38,480
+of their principal يعني ممكن 95% يتحملوا because
+
+220
+00:15:38,480 --> 00:15:45,020
+they have a good saving نطلع هاي ال chart هاي ال
+
+221
+00:15:45,020 --> 00:15:50,880
+chart summarizing the investment policyهذه حطتها
+
+222
+00:15:50,880 --> 00:15:54,760
+ال cfa institute investment management process
+
+223
+00:15:54,760 --> 00:15:59,940
+وهذه عمّبتها على شركات الاستثمار انه بحيث شركات
+
+224
+00:15:59,940 --> 00:16:03,380
+الاستثمار يلتزموا بهذه ال process the first thing
+
+225
+00:16:03,380 --> 00:16:07,580
+is the planning لازم يعملوا planning تخطيط and I
+
+226
+00:16:07,580 --> 00:16:13,560
+will give execution and feedback اذا فينا تلت
+
+227
+00:16:13,560 --> 00:16:16,480
+مراحل لازم نمشي فيهم the first one is planning
+
+228
+00:16:16,480 --> 00:16:20,250
+هتاخد هذا الجانب planningthen execution then
+
+229
+00:16:20,250 --> 00:16:26,190
+feedback the first one is planning أول مرحلة
+
+230
+00:16:26,190 --> 00:16:30,030
+planning لازم
+
+231
+00:16:30,030 --> 00:16:33,490
+يعملوا details specifications and quantification
+
+232
+00:16:33,490 --> 00:16:38,770
+of investor objectives لازم يتعمقوا كتير في فهم
+
+233
+00:16:38,770 --> 00:16:45,090
+حاجة المستثمر يعني ممكن تلاقي questionnaire بضم
+
+234
+00:16:45,090 --> 00:16:48,950
+تلاتين صفحةبس عشان يعرفوا what exactly the
+
+235
+00:16:48,950 --> 00:16:54,830
+investors objectives تمام؟ يعني مثلا وين ساكن؟ كم
+
+236
+00:16:54,830 --> 00:16:59,250
+مرة اتنقل من السكن؟ مثلا أسماء أفراد العائلة
+
+237
+00:16:59,250 --> 00:17:05,030
+تبعتهم؟ شغلات مثلا مكان العمل تبعته؟ كده إيه سنة
+
+238
+00:17:05,030 --> 00:17:08,490
+في العمل؟ عدد سنوات الخبرة تبعته؟ الراتب تبعته؟
+
+239
+00:17:08,490 --> 00:17:11,030
+إيش في عنده نفقات أخرى؟ إيش في عنده أموال أخرى؟
+
+240
+00:17:11,030 --> 00:17:14,990
+إيش في .. كتير شغلات حتى الإنسان اللي بقبل الطلب
+
+241
+00:17:16,210 --> 00:17:19,750
+بشعر this is break to the privacy، هذا يعني
+
+242
+00:17:19,750 --> 00:17:23,470
+بتدخلوا بخصيصيتك، هم مابتدخلوا بخصيصيتك because
+
+243
+00:17:23,470 --> 00:17:27,340
+this is regulation of the investmentفهم عشان
+
+244
+00:17:27,340 --> 00:17:31,340
+يعرفوا بالظبط انت شو بتقدر تتحمل، شو عايز، شو كذا،
+
+245
+00:17:31,340 --> 00:17:34,160
+فلازم .. and they .. sometime they arrange a .. a
+
+246
+00:17:34,160 --> 00:17:36,340
+special meeting with the .. with the investment
+
+247
+00:17:36,340 --> 00:17:39,100
+managers يعني بيعملوا special meetings، بي ..
+
+248
+00:17:39,100 --> 00:17:40,860
+بينادوا، بيقعدوا مع ال investment manager،
+
+249
+00:17:40,860 --> 00:17:45,140
+بيتحدثوا مع بعض، و .. أساس يفهم what exactly he or
+
+250
+00:17:45,140 --> 00:17:49,980
+she wants بالظبط شو هم .. شو بدهم، تمام؟ و عادة
+
+251
+00:17:49,980 --> 00:17:53,640
+بيكون هذا is videoing، بيكون هو مصور و documented
+
+252
+00:17:53,640 --> 00:17:59,220
+موثقيعني حساس انه فيه .. يعني لو مثلا جال انا
+
+253
+00:17:59,220 --> 00:18:02,840
+والله انا بتحمل يعني عشرة في المية يعني اخسر من
+
+254
+00:18:02,840 --> 00:18:07,000
+رأس مالي و بعدين لما احنا عملنا له assessments ان
+
+255
+00:18:07,000 --> 00:18:11,060
+هو بتحمل و روحنا أخسرناه له ستة في المية مثلا سوق
+
+256
+00:18:11,060 --> 00:18:13,580
+الحظ ماربحش خص الستة في المية اه انتوا سرقتونا
+
+257
+00:18:13,580 --> 00:18:18,020
+انتوا حرمية انتوا بصار شو؟ في .. في documents انه
+
+258
+00:18:18,020 --> 00:18:23,300
+انت .. ارضيت في الكلام يعني و في ناس بعتقدوا انه
+
+259
+00:18:23,300 --> 00:18:28,620
+investmentsوللأسف شديد يعني ممكن موجودين في
+
+260
+00:18:28,620 --> 00:18:33,680
+مجتمعنا هي ربح بدون خسارة ومجرد ما يبدأ بيخسر طبعا
+
+261
+00:18:33,680 --> 00:18:39,800
+هذا مستحيل يصير اه وبيجي يقول انتوا يعني بالاخير
+
+262
+00:18:39,800 --> 00:18:43,540
+انتوا نصابين وحرمية وكذا مش هذا ال investment هذا
+
+263
+00:18:43,540 --> 00:18:47,200
+ما هو investment هذا انت بتحط فلوسك بودائع وكذا
+
+264
+00:18:47,200 --> 00:18:53,850
+انت حر مش هتكون فيه خسارة this is not investmentSo
+
+265
+00:18:53,850 --> 00:18:57,430
+the .. and the second thing is constraints and
+
+266
+00:18:57,430 --> 00:19:00,970
+preferences. ال constraints هنيجي نحكي فيها زي
+
+267
+00:19:00,970 --> 00:19:03,570
+liquidity .. liquidity مثلا، دا هي ال taxation، في
+
+268
+00:19:03,570 --> 00:19:06,010
+ناس محبوش ال taxation، في ناس محبو ال taxation،
+
+269
+00:19:06,010 --> 00:19:09,190
+حسب كل واحد شو ال .. شو الشغلات اللي بدوا إياها، و
+
+270
+00:19:09,190 --> 00:19:14,790
+بعدين ال preferences، بعض ال .. التفضيلات أو بعض
+
+271
+00:19:14,790 --> 00:19:19,870
+الخصائص اللي يعني بيهتم فيها ال investorsيعني
+
+272
+00:19:19,870 --> 00:19:23,990
+بالعربي احنا بدنا ال investors نعرف معلومات عنه
+
+273
+00:19:23,990 --> 00:19:29,930
+أكتر منه from investment point of view عشان نعرف
+
+274
+00:19:29,930 --> 00:19:35,230
+كيف how to deal his or her money بعد
+
+275
+00:19:35,230 --> 00:19:39,710
+بال planning during
+
+276
+00:19:39,710 --> 00:19:41,950
+the planning we set portfolio policies and
+
+277
+00:19:41,950 --> 00:19:47,210
+strategies بدنا نحدد ال policies و ال strategiesال
+
+278
+00:19:47,210 --> 00:19:52,430
+policies لو احنا بنحكيها ال policies و ال
+
+279
+00:19:52,430 --> 00:19:57,070
+strategies اللي هو عنا .. what is the difference
+
+280
+00:19:57,070 --> 00:19:59,670
+between policies and strategies؟ شو الفرق بين ال
+
+281
+00:19:59,670 --> 00:20:03,770
+policies و ال strategies؟ ال policies بتشير بناء
+
+282
+00:20:03,770 --> 00:20:08,130
+على ال strategies ال policies يمركب على ال
+
+283
+00:20:08,130 --> 00:20:10,730
+strategies، ال strategies بيبقى أثر الشركة، ال
+
+284
+00:20:10,730 --> 00:20:13,910
+foundation of the organizationخطوط العريضة يعني ده
+
+285
+00:20:13,910 --> 00:20:18,110
+ال policy الخطوط العريضة لأ ال strategy strategy و
+
+286
+00:20:18,110 --> 00:20:26,910
+ال policies اه
+
+287
+00:20:26,910 --> 00:20:31,130
+هذه ال tactical things هدول بتحكي عنه ب tactical
+
+288
+00:20:31,130 --> 00:20:36,650
+اه تكتيكيت اه دراستوا strategic management مظبوط
+
+289
+00:20:36,650 --> 00:20:40,590
+لسه لسه مش خرجين انتوا يعني طيب
+
+290
+00:20:43,520 --> 00:20:47,220
+مش موضوعها هلا لو جينا احنا نحكي هى هدول ال
+
+291
+00:20:47,220 --> 00:20:51,040
+objectives هلا
+
+292
+00:20:51,040 --> 00:20:54,940
+هى ال investors objectives من ال investors
+
+293
+00:20:54,940 --> 00:21:02,020
+objectives بنحدد ال policies ال
+
+294
+00:21:02,020 --> 00:21:05,840
+policies
+
+295
+00:21:05,840 --> 00:21:12,600
+طبعا فيه tactical thingsبيكون فيه tactical T1, T2,
+
+296
+00:21:12,700 --> 00:21:24,820
+T3 and so on بعدين بيكون عندها ال strategy ال
+
+297
+00:21:24,820 --> 00:21:31,360
+strategy is important ال strategy is important the
+
+298
+00:21:31,360 --> 00:21:33,320
+main difference between policies and strategies
+
+299
+00:21:33,320 --> 00:21:39,650
+the policies are shortened objectives orأشياء
+
+300
+00:21:39,650 --> 00:21:43,030
+قصيرة طوال الوقت، ولكن الأسلحة طوال الوقت طوال
+
+301
+00:21:43,030 --> 00:21:44,530
+الوقت طوال الوقت طوال الوقت طوال الوقت طوال الوقت
+
+302
+00:21:44,530 --> 00:21:45,950
+طوال الوقت طوال الوقت طوال الوقت طوال الوقت طوال
+
+303
+00:21:45,950 --> 00:21:46,870
+الوقت طوال الوقت طوال الوقت طوال الوقت طوال الوقت
+
+304
+00:21:46,870 --> 00:21:47,190
+طوال الوقت طوال الوقت طوال الوقت طوال الوقت طوال
+
+305
+00:21:47,190 --> 00:21:47,190
+الوقت طوال الوقت طوال الوقت طوال الوقت طوال الوقت
+
+306
+00:21:47,190 --> 00:21:48,910
+طوال الوقت طوال الوقت طوال الوقت طوال الوقت طوال
+
+307
+00:21:48,910 --> 00:21:55,310
+الوقت طوال الوقت طوال الوقت طوال الوقت طوال الوقت
+
+308
+00:21:55,310 --> 00:22:05,250
+طوال
+
+309
+00:22:05,250 --> 00:22:07,710
+الوق
+
+310
+00:22:12,480 --> 00:22:17,360
+الستراتيجية مابتتغيرش، الاستراتيجية مابتتغيرش،
+
+311
+00:22:17,360 --> 00:22:18,320
+الاستراتيجية مابتتغيرش، الاستراتيجية مابتتغيرش،
+
+312
+00:22:18,320 --> 00:22:18,480
+الاستراتيجية مابتتغيرش، الاستراتيجية مابتتغيرش،
+
+313
+00:22:18,480 --> 00:22:19,040
+الاستراتيجية مابتتغيرش، الاستراتيجية مابتتغيرش،
+
+314
+00:22:19,040 --> 00:22:20,960
+الاستراتيجية مابتتغيرش، الاستراتيجية مابتتغيرش،
+
+315
+00:22:20,960 --> 00:22:23,420
+الاستراتيجية مابتتغيرش، الاستراتيجية مابتتغيرش،
+
+316
+00:22:23,420 --> 00:22:26,740
+الاستراتيجية مابتتغيرش، الاستراتيجية مابتتغيرش،
+
+317
+00:22:26,740 --> 00:22:28,960
+الاستراتيجية مابتتغيرش
+
+318
+00:22:35,280 --> 00:22:38,480
+but the strategy is still fixed, we cannot change
+
+319
+00:22:38,480 --> 00:22:42,440
+the strategy لأن ال strategy بتبقى هي it is the
+
+320
+00:22:42,440 --> 00:22:46,880
+long term objectives but we can change يعني أعطيكم
+
+321
+00:22:46,880 --> 00:22:52,220
+مثل لو احنا ال strategy طبعتنا أن احنا نصل ساحة
+
+322
+00:22:52,220 --> 00:22:57,140
+غزة مثلا هاي our strategy our the the the end goal
+
+323
+00:22:57,140 --> 00:23:00,430
+طبعتناطب كنا ايش ال policy تبعتنا؟ ال policy
+
+324
+00:23:00,430 --> 00:23:05,550
+تبعتنا ناخد ال .. نطلع مثلا ماشي هذه policy او
+
+325
+00:23:05,550 --> 00:23:09,610
+بالسيارة او بالقطار او بالطيارة هدو ال policies
+
+326
+00:23:09,610 --> 00:23:15,990
+طيب احنا بدينا نمشي في الطريق مثلا لجينا ان ال ..
+
+327
+00:23:15,990 --> 00:23:20,690
+في crowded و كذا و اشي و .. و الطريق مغلق و الشرطة
+
+328
+00:23:20,690 --> 00:23:24,890
+حكيتنا غير المكان ف you can easily at the endwe
+
+329
+00:23:24,890 --> 00:23:28,110
+have to .. to .. to .. to reach to the Gaza Square
+
+330
+00:23:28,110 --> 00:23:34,110
+لازم نصل لساحة لكن إذا روحنا على النصر بكون we
+
+331
+00:23:34,110 --> 00:23:37,650
+change the strategy طب it's change the strategy it
+
+332
+00:23:37,650 --> 00:23:41,670
+means we unable to meet the investors و objectives
+
+333
+00:23:41,670 --> 00:23:44,510
+يعني معناه كدا إحنا حققنا .. ماحققناش أهداف ال
+
+334
+00:23:44,510 --> 00:23:47,730
+investors فال policies we can .. we can amend the
+
+335
+00:23:47,730 --> 00:23:53,800
+policiesin order to achieve our strategy، حتى نحقق
+
+336
+00:23:53,800 --> 00:23:56,620
+الاستراتيجية تبعتنا، this is the important things
+
+337
+00:23:56,620 --> 00:24:00,660
+فاحنا
+
+338
+00:24:00,660 --> 00:24:06,300
+بنعمل designing لل policies و لل strategies، بعدين
+
+339
+00:24:06,300 --> 00:24:10,250
+we see the capital market expectationswe will see
+
+340
+00:24:10,250 --> 00:24:13,250
+the capital market because these policies and
+
+341
+00:24:13,250 --> 00:24:15,770
+strategies will be implemented in the capital
+
+342
+00:24:15,770 --> 00:24:21,510
+market لأن هذا هننفذه بالسوق بالسوق المالي and
+
+343
+00:24:21,510 --> 00:24:25,090
+when we are applying strategies and policies we
+
+344
+00:24:25,090 --> 00:24:30,270
+face some problems or some challenges for instance
+
+345
+00:24:30,270 --> 00:24:34,550
+we will see the relevant economic things economy
+
+346
+00:24:34,550 --> 00:24:41,630
+may change الاقتصاد بتغيرsocial things الوضع
+
+347
+00:24:41,630 --> 00:24:45,430
+الاجتماعي بتغير political issues الوضع السياسي
+
+348
+00:24:45,430 --> 00:24:48,970
+بتغير and sector considerations بعض الصناعات برضه
+
+349
+00:24:48,970 --> 00:24:53,010
+بتتغير so in this part when we are designing
+
+350
+00:24:53,010 --> 00:24:55,770
+policies and strategies we have to consider what
+
+351
+00:24:55,770 --> 00:24:59,050
+are the changes could be during our investment
+
+352
+00:24:59,050 --> 00:25:03,780
+processيعني ما هي التغييرات و ما هي الشغلاء
+
+353
+00:25:03,780 --> 00:25:09,200
+because we are not living in a separate moon يعني
+
+354
+00:25:09,200 --> 00:25:12,760
+احنا مابنعيشش في قمر منفصل no we are living in
+
+355
+00:25:12,760 --> 00:25:17,160
+this ground and in this land and it's affected by
+
+356
+00:25:17,160 --> 00:25:19,000
+economic, social
+
+357
+00:25:23,360 --> 00:25:27,540
+environments such as some legal considerations
+
+358
+00:25:27,540 --> 00:25:31,200
+يعني بعض القوانين ممكن تيجي تتغير وبالتالي we have
+
+359
+00:25:31,200 --> 00:25:33,820
+to consider all of these things and to see how
+
+360
+00:25:33,820 --> 00:25:37,660
+these changes may influence on our investment
+
+361
+00:25:37,660 --> 00:25:41,180
+policy and we change these policies according to
+
+362
+00:25:41,180 --> 00:25:44,100
+the to the changes of the environments because
+
+363
+00:25:44,100 --> 00:25:49,750
+because we are living in open environments okaySo
+
+364
+00:25:49,750 --> 00:25:53,670
+this is the first part of planning. اذا اي واحد
+
+365
+00:25:53,670 --> 00:25:59,430
+بده يعمل investments to be fair with the .. with
+
+366
+00:25:59,430 --> 00:26:02,070
+.. with the investors انه احنا هاي ال policy
+
+367
+00:26:02,070 --> 00:26:05,890
+بتاعتنا و هاي احتمالات المشاكل اللي ممكن تصير يعني
+
+368
+00:26:05,890 --> 00:26:10,270
+مثلا زي طبيب بوصف دوة معين بيقول للمريض بيقول له
+
+369
+00:26:10,270 --> 00:26:14,550
+هذا الدوةبدك تاخده من كذا، في عندك مشاكل كذا كذا،
+
+370
+00:26:14,550 --> 00:26:18,250
+بدك تاخد بالك، في conditions لأن it works in a
+
+371
+00:26:18,250 --> 00:26:20,830
+special conditions if you ignore these conditions
+
+372
+00:26:20,830 --> 00:26:25,770
+the medicine could not be worked ممكن مايشتغلش and
+
+373
+00:26:25,770 --> 00:26:27,750
+the same the policy it works in a special
+
+374
+00:26:27,750 --> 00:26:30,850
+condition if these conditions change you have to
+
+375
+00:26:30,850 --> 00:26:34,770
+manage the policies according to the changes in
+
+376
+00:26:34,770 --> 00:26:37,630
+the environment حسب التغيرات اللي ممكن تسير بال
+
+377
+00:26:37,630 --> 00:26:43,280
+environmentOkay execution التنفيذ or the
+
+378
+00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:51,180
+implementation في عملية التنفيذ we have to think
+
+379
+00:26:51,180 --> 00:26:56,220
+in from the .. from top down or from the .. طلعوا
+
+380
+00:26:56,220 --> 00:27:01,440
+الشكل السهم السهم في أسهم طالع نازلة okay for
+
+381
+00:27:01,440 --> 00:27:05,880
+instance some people mistakenly think the
+
+382
+00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:07,560
+monitoring is starting at the end
+
+383
+00:27:11,370 --> 00:27:15,170
+هذا اللي احنا بنفهمه صح but this is wrong the
+
+384
+00:27:15,170 --> 00:27:18,450
+monitoring is starting from the first for instance
+
+385
+00:27:18,450 --> 00:27:21,350
+when we are sitting with the investors and setting
+
+386
+00:27:21,350 --> 00:27:26,410
+his or her objectives we may ask whether this
+
+387
+00:27:26,410 --> 00:27:31,070
+objective fit this investors needs or not يعني
+
+388
+00:27:31,070 --> 00:27:34,570
+مثلا احنا قيمنا هذا ال investors هنشوف فعلا هذا
+
+389
+00:27:34,570 --> 00:27:39,440
+تقييم صح ولا غلط ممكن ان فيه biasإيش يعني bias؟
+
+390
+00:27:39,440 --> 00:27:43,600
+يعني مثلا إجاني أنا قريب و .. وعملتله meeting و
+
+391
+00:27:43,600 --> 00:27:47,800
+كذا و إشي و هو enjoyable meeting و حطتله مثلا نقاط
+
+392
+00:27:47,800 --> 00:27:51,180
+معينة في انه هذا ال risk و هذا ال return لازم يكون
+
+393
+00:27:51,180 --> 00:27:57,400
+في other people evaluate my .. my documents هذا ال
+
+394
+00:27:57,400 --> 00:28:00,720
+documents مباشرة بيروح لل back office و ال back
+
+395
+00:28:00,720 --> 00:28:04,520
+office مباشرة بيعملوا evaluation حتى لتقييمي أنا
+
+396
+00:28:07,180 --> 00:28:11,840
+لتأكد من أنني أخذت الحكومة الصحية لهذا المستخدم
+
+397
+00:28:13,420 --> 00:28:18,480
+يعني مثلا روحنا احنا حاكولنا انتوا مهمتكوا تديروا
+
+398
+00:28:18,480 --> 00:28:24,020
+to invest مثلا في عندنا ناس هدول الشهداء مثلا
+
+399
+00:28:24,020 --> 00:28:29,720
+زوجاتهم وأولادهم بيجيولهم أموال فهذه الأموال بحتاج
+
+400
+00:28:29,720 --> 00:28:33,800
+ان حد يعملها managing يعملها managing إدارة ممكن
+
+401
+00:28:33,800 --> 00:28:37,840
+يكونوا أطفال صغار وبتسألي بيناحط ال policy
+
+402
+00:28:37,840 --> 00:28:41,640
+بتلاقمهم إيه جواحد ماعندهوش إبراحات policy معينةو
+
+403
+00:28:41,640 --> 00:28:44,700
+بعدين لما .. لازم تيجي لل back office، ال back
+
+404
+00:28:44,700 --> 00:28:47,240
+office يتطلع، this is a right policy لإنه يخرب
+
+405
+00:28:47,240 --> 00:28:50,800
+بيتك إذا بتحط إشي غلط لهدول الناسمظبوط ولا لأ؟
+
+406
+00:28:50,800 --> 00:28:56,520
+يعني إشي .. يعني بيصير إشي مأساة وفي كتير أنفلة ..
+
+407
+00:28:56,520 --> 00:29:00,060
+كتير يعني إحنا في المجتمع بنشوف جثث وحوادث
+
+408
+00:29:00,060 --> 00:29:04,100
+بالمجتمع وعندكوا أكيد جثث أكتر مني في هذه المواضيع
+
+409
+00:29:04,100 --> 00:29:09,200
+فلازم نتأكد يعني مثلا أموال الأيتام في عندنا
+
+410
+00:29:09,200 --> 00:29:11,940
+مؤسسات بترعى أموال الأيتام و بتدير أموال الأيتام
+
+411
+00:29:11,940 --> 00:29:15,700
+أنا شوفت تجربة في .. في بريطانيا اللي هي ال mental
+
+412
+00:29:15,700 --> 00:29:20,220
+ill peopleinvest of mentally ill people fund، ايش
+
+413
+00:29:20,220 --> 00:29:23,100
+ال mental ill؟ ال .. الناس اللي شوية عندهم مشاكل
+
+414
+00:29:23,100 --> 00:29:27,680
+عقلية، اللي مش راكزين .. عندهم مشاكل في .. في
+
+415
+00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:29,300
+العقل، ال mental ill دي disabled people، ماندهاش
+
+416
+00:29:29,300 --> 00:29:31,320
+تقول disabled physically، لكن عندهم mentally ill
+
+417
+00:29:31,320 --> 00:29:34,700
+people، هدول ال mentally ill people في ناس عندهم
+
+418
+00:29:34,700 --> 00:29:39,080
+ثرواتمثلا أبوه غني، أمه غنية، سته غنية، المهم
+
+419
+00:29:39,080 --> 00:29:42,520
+بالأخير في عنده ثروة هذه الثروة we cannot leave
+
+420
+00:29:42,520 --> 00:29:47,280
+according to the investment law these people have
+
+421
+00:29:47,280 --> 00:29:50,140
+to be sponsored or have to be sponsored by
+
+422
+00:29:50,140 --> 00:29:52,320
+investment company لازم ال investment company هي
+
+423
+00:29:52,320 --> 00:29:56,980
+تشرف و تدير الاستثمارات تبعته طب إذا ال investor
+
+424
+00:29:56,980 --> 00:29:59,780
+manager design a wrong investment policy who
+
+425
+00:29:59,780 --> 00:30:04,020
+discover this؟مين بدو يتقلل؟ monitoring لازم
+
+426
+00:30:04,020 --> 00:30:07,980
+monitoring طب هدول حرام يعني ال ال people هدول إذا
+
+427
+00:30:07,980 --> 00:30:11,660
+ماحفش حد يدير باله على أموالهم بطريقة صحيحة
+
+428
+00:30:11,660 --> 00:30:15,340
+بالأخير هيصفوا في الشوارع okay where is the social
+
+429
+00:30:15,340 --> 00:30:18,970
+responsibility؟وإذا .. إذا ال investor manager
+
+430
+00:30:18,970 --> 00:30:22,830
+mistakenly bought the wrong investment policy إذا
+
+431
+00:30:22,830 --> 00:30:25,330
+حاطت ال wrong investment policy معاكلام هي ..
+
+432
+00:30:25,330 --> 00:30:29,570
+هيكون ال .. so فى ناس هيكونوا are separated ..
+
+433
+00:30:29,570 --> 00:30:33,470
+separate management looking at the .. the
+
+434
+00:30:33,470 --> 00:30:35,770
+investment policy and .. and evaluate the
+
+435
+00:30:35,770 --> 00:30:39,650
+investment policy before kicking off the plan
+
+436
+00:30:39,650 --> 00:30:44,710
+kicking off يعني قبل ما إحنا نبدأ عملية ال .. ال
+
+437
+00:30:44,710 --> 00:30:48,690
+investmentsيعني so the monitoring is starting from
+
+438
+00:30:48,690 --> 00:30:53,910
+the first to the end وبيبدوا يتبعوهم كيف الإجراءات
+
+439
+00:30:53,910 --> 00:30:59,410
+اللي .. اللي بتتم then in the execution we have to
+
+440
+00:30:59,410 --> 00:31:03,360
+look at the portfolio constructionportfolio
+
+441
+00:31:03,360 --> 00:31:06,280
+construction لما احنا نبدأ portfolio المحفظة
+
+442
+00:31:06,280 --> 00:31:09,900
+الاستثمارية ل .. المحفظة الاستثمارية لازم تكون to
+
+443
+00:31:09,900 --> 00:31:12,600
+meet the .. the investor objective يعني is linked
+
+444
+00:31:12,600 --> 00:31:17,060
+with the investor objective asset allocation وين
+
+445
+00:31:17,060 --> 00:31:20,420
+احنا هنستثمر الأموال تبعتنا هنستثمرهم ب stocks ولا
+
+446
+00:31:20,420 --> 00:31:22,740
+ب bonds ولا ب equities ولا .. وين .. وين احنا
+
+447
+00:31:22,740 --> 00:31:26,920
+هنستثمرهمو هدول كمان بنعملهم monitoring portfolio
+
+448
+00:31:26,920 --> 00:31:30,160
+optimization or optimizing نعمل portfolio
+
+449
+00:31:30,160 --> 00:31:33,380
+optimizing يعني قدر المستطاع نعمل تخفيض في تكاليف
+
+450
+00:31:33,380 --> 00:31:39,020
+إدارة ال portfolio and finally in this process
+
+451
+00:31:39,020 --> 00:31:45,220
+implementation and execution تنفيذ و تطبيق كمان
+
+452
+00:31:45,220 --> 00:31:47,920
+مرة شوفوا ال monitoring هي موجودة هنا و في
+
+453
+00:31:47,920 --> 00:31:51,660
+monitoring تحتas I said it is from the first and
+
+454
+00:31:51,660 --> 00:31:54,560
+from the end يعني في ال .. في البداية و في النهاية
+
+455
+00:31:54,560 --> 00:31:59,920
+لازم يكون عندي on-time monitoring on-time
+
+456
+00:31:59,920 --> 00:32:03,100
+monitoring يكون في عندي في نفس ال .. كل مستند
+
+457
+00:32:03,100 --> 00:32:07,940
+بيطلع من ال .. ال execution department مباشرة is a
+
+458
+00:32:07,940 --> 00:32:11,500
+copy going to the monitoring department أو
+
+459
+00:32:11,500 --> 00:32:15,360
+auditing departmentيعني ال .. أي .. أي خطوة احنا
+
+460
+00:32:15,360 --> 00:32:18,840
+بنعملها في .. في التطبيق مباشرة بروح نسخة منها على
+
+461
+00:32:18,840 --> 00:32:22,660
+ال .. ال .. يعني مثلا لو احنا روحنا .. اشترينا
+
+462
+00:32:22,660 --> 00:32:28,540
+قطعة أرض مثلا و هذه قطعة أرض مثلا اللي هتتناسب مع
+
+463
+00:32:28,540 --> 00:32:31,840
+ال investment .. ال investment policyيعني
+
+464
+00:32:31,840 --> 00:32:36,340
+اشتريناها في مناطق يعني فيها مخاطر و احنا قاعدين
+
+465
+00:32:36,340 --> 00:32:40,680
+نستثمر في أموال الفقراء أو أموال مثلا الأيتام طبعا
+
+466
+00:32:40,680 --> 00:32:43,980
+هذه subject to risk subject to high risk فمباشرة
+
+467
+00:32:43,980 --> 00:32:48,860
+من حد ما يصير يعني بطلب أذن لشراء أذن شراء العقد
+
+468
+00:32:48,860 --> 00:32:51,100
+شراء الأرض فمباشرة أذن الشراء بروح على ال
+
+469
+00:32:51,100 --> 00:32:52,860
+monitoring بيجيوا تعالوا ال monitoring يقولوهم
+
+470
+00:32:52,860 --> 00:32:55,560
+اسمعوا شو هذا اللي بتسويوا انتوا فيه you cannot do
+
+471
+00:32:55,560 --> 00:32:59,120
+this because this is high risk فبروحوا برجعولهم
+
+472
+00:32:59,120 --> 00:33:02,920
+إياهاand they do it again فبتلاحظوا أنه في
+
+473
+00:33:02,920 --> 00:33:09,220
+monitoring on time اتأكد لأنه هي .. so the failure
+
+474
+00:33:09,220 --> 00:33:14,920
+لما يسير في انهيار الانهيار بيكون ال probability
+
+475
+00:33:14,920 --> 00:33:19,640
+of the failure is very very small يعني احتمال أن
+
+476
+00:33:19,640 --> 00:33:24,730
+الخسارة بتكون كتير محدودةلأنه في monitoring
+
+477
+00:33:24,730 --> 00:33:28,790
+economic and market input factors بنشوف .. بنتابع
+
+478
+00:33:28,790 --> 00:33:32,350
+الاختصاد و ال social things و كذا و بنشوف كيف ممكن
+
+479
+00:33:32,350 --> 00:33:40,190
+يتأثر على ال .. الاستثمار and the last thing which
+
+480
+00:33:40,190 --> 00:33:44,790
+is not the last because it is endless process it
+
+481
+00:33:44,790 --> 00:33:51,270
+is endless process endless no end so it is endless
+
+482
+00:33:51,270 --> 00:33:56,540
+process feedbackالتأكيد هو إجراء مجالات الانفصار
+
+483
+00:33:56,540 --> 00:34:02,940
+والمجالات الانفصارية
+
+484
+00:34:04,100 --> 00:34:06,820
+if we have problems so where is the problems and
+
+485
+00:34:06,820 --> 00:34:10,120
+then we update the process, the policy if we meet
+
+486
+00:34:10,120 --> 00:34:14,200
+the objective then we develop these objectives
+
+487
+00:34:14,200 --> 00:34:17,020
+بنعمل developing لل objectives يعني خلينا نعطيكوا
+
+488
+00:34:17,020 --> 00:34:20,100
+مثال insurance companies اليوم ال insurance
+
+489
+00:34:20,100 --> 00:34:24,520
+companies هم أكتر الناس مالكين لل investment
+
+490
+00:34:24,520 --> 00:34:30,250
+companies شركات التأمينفهدول حققوا أهداف التأمين
+
+491
+00:34:30,250 --> 00:34:35,730
+تبعهم فصار عندهم في عندهم فائد فهذا الفائد ساعدهم
+
+492
+00:34:35,730 --> 00:34:40,390
+يفكروا في في في higher objectives في أهداف عالية
+
+493
+00:34:40,390 --> 00:34:43,990
+أكتر فصاروا to invest صار يعمل controlling over
+
+494
+00:34:43,990 --> 00:34:46,730
+some companies صاروا هم يسيطروا على بعض شركات
+
+495
+00:34:46,730 --> 00:34:52,010
+prestigious companies يعني شركات معروفة ومشهورة أن
+
+496
+00:34:52,010 --> 00:34:57,980
+هم بيسيطروا عليهاthis is example of components of
+
+497
+00:34:57,980 --> 00:35:00,900
+the investment management process هده أمثلة ممكن
+
+498
+00:35:00,900 --> 00:35:04,660
+ترجع أقولها this is example of components of the
+
+499
+00:35:04,660 --> 00:35:07,780
+investment policy statement يعني مثلا أشوف أول
+
+500
+00:35:07,780 --> 00:35:10,700
+واحدة brief client description أعطينا معلومات عامة
+
+501
+00:35:10,700 --> 00:35:14,900
+عن نفسك شو أنت شو إسمك غيرت إسمك ولا لأ؟ إيش ال
+
+502
+00:35:14,900 --> 00:35:19,040
+nicknames بتستخدمها؟ لأنه يعني احنا بالعالم العربي
+
+503
+00:35:19,040 --> 00:35:23,680
+ال nicknames كتير عندنا يعني أبو محمد who is أبو
+
+504
+00:35:23,680 --> 00:35:27,870
+محمدأبو علي, who is ابو علي؟ اعطيني اسمك and
+
+505
+00:35:27,870 --> 00:35:31,210
+possible nicknames اسمك وال .. وال possible
+
+506
+00:35:31,210 --> 00:35:33,770
+nicknames بتاعتك اعطيني ايها, purpose of
+
+507
+00:35:33,770 --> 00:35:36,470
+establishing policies and guidelines و ال duties,
+
+508
+00:35:36,930 --> 00:35:40,330
+إيش بتشتغل و إيش بتعمل و .. و مين ال referees
+
+509
+00:35:40,330 --> 00:35:43,810
+تبعونك و مين صحابك و مين قصصك كل هذه we have to ..
+
+510
+00:35:43,810 --> 00:35:49,550
+يعني مرة أنا بيت ك questionnaire كانوا .. هو سألني
+
+511
+00:35:49,550 --> 00:35:52,230
+بال questionnaire who are the close friends for
+
+512
+00:35:52,230 --> 00:35:57,910
+youمن أقرب أصدقاء عندك؟ طيب جوابت ال .. جوابت okay
+
+513
+00:35:57,910 --> 00:36:01,290
+فلان وفلان وفلان حتى أنه تعمل ال cheating صعب طيب
+
+514
+00:36:01,290 --> 00:36:06,250
+أعطينا ال emails تبعتهم if it is possible if it is
+
+515
+00:36:06,250 --> 00:36:11,010
+possible طبعا بالحالة هم مباشرة من حد ما أنه to
+
+516
+00:36:11,010 --> 00:36:14,850
+fill this application نسخة من ال .. من ال .. من ال
+
+517
+00:36:14,850 --> 00:36:19,690
+application هتروح لهم و هيسألوهم أسئلة very very
+
+518
+00:36:19,690 --> 00:36:24,110
+confidential questionsأه confidential questions
+
+519
+00:36:24,110 --> 00:36:29,710
+يعني مثلا راح واحد جاب يعني كتير بتصير جاب مليون
+
+520
+00:36:29,710 --> 00:36:32,090
+دولار وحكى لشركة الاستثمارة أن أنا بدأ أستثمر
+
+521
+00:36:32,090 --> 00:36:39,110
+عندكم طب هدول يمكن زلمة حرامي يعني بنجوسان أو غسيل
+
+522
+00:36:39,110 --> 00:36:42,650
+أموال أو .. أو الاخره so they have to ensure them
+
+523
+00:36:42,650 --> 00:36:46,810
+لأن هدول they are not put their .. their position
+
+524
+00:36:46,810 --> 00:36:54,210
+at risk محطوش ال position تبعهم at riskOkay ف we
+
+525
+00:36:54,210 --> 00:37:02,290
+have to be careful on doing this كمان
+
+526
+00:37:02,290 --> 00:37:06,450
+determining of portfolio policies حكيت عن
+
+527
+00:37:06,450 --> 00:37:09,210
+constraints و ال constraints فاكرين لما حكيت عن ال
+
+528
+00:37:09,210 --> 00:37:12,750
+objectives retain requirement risk ال constraints
+
+529
+00:37:12,750 --> 00:37:18,840
+اللي هي ال liquidityانت متى بدك .. في ناس بييجي و
+
+530
+00:37:18,840 --> 00:37:21,860
+بيقولوا انه انا بدى .. واجد مابدي مصاريه بدي
+
+531
+00:37:21,860 --> 00:37:27,400
+اياهم، طبعا؟ هدول liquidity يعني لازم تكون very
+
+532
+00:37:27,400 --> 00:37:31,620
+high، اعملهم investment في high liquid assets، في
+
+533
+00:37:31,620 --> 00:37:35,040
+ناس بيقولك لأ يعني انا الفلوس هذه مش بحتاجها لمدة
+
+534
+00:37:35,040 --> 00:37:41,070
+سنةفي ناس بيقولوا لأ انا هذه الفلوس ل .. مثلا ل ..
+
+535
+00:37:41,070 --> 00:37:44,030
+ل ال kids لما ي .. بعد 10 سنين 15 سنة لما يكبروا
+
+536
+00:37:44,030 --> 00:37:47,170
+في الجامعة مثلا واحد بيقول لأ هذه الفلوس لما انا
+
+537
+00:37:47,170 --> 00:37:52,190
+أسير retired لما انا أتقعد ف ال liquidity ال
+
+538
+00:37:52,190 --> 00:37:54,670
+horizon كدهش الفترة الزمنية اللي احنا هنستثمر فيها
+
+539
+00:37:54,670 --> 00:37:57,570
+في ناس بيقولك انا بدي تلات شهور فيه بدي سنة so we
+
+540
+00:37:57,570 --> 00:38:01,290
+have to study regulations ايش هي ال regulations
+
+541
+00:38:01,290 --> 00:38:05,320
+اللي تطبق؟لازم احنا نقول لل investors هذه هي ال
+
+542
+00:38:05,320 --> 00:38:10,300
+regulations إذا مثلا إذا أنت قلت بدي سنة جابل سنة
+
+543
+00:38:10,300 --> 00:38:13,760
+إذا تسحب فلوسك احنا هنعملك discount .. احنا هنعملك
+
+544
+00:38:13,760 --> 00:38:18,760
+chargeOkay إذا بدك تفل .. فلوسك لازم تبلغنا قبل
+
+545
+00:38:18,760 --> 00:38:23,560
+مثلا ب 40 يوم يعني high regulations أنت شخصيا لازم
+
+546
+00:38:23,560 --> 00:38:27,900
+أنت ت .. تطلب هذه الأفوا .. الأموال لا يحق لشخص
+
+547
+00:38:27,900 --> 00:38:30,960
+آخر أنه ي .. يتبادل هذه المعلومات يعني high
+
+548
+00:38:30,960 --> 00:38:34,160
+regulations بتخص ال .. ال investments ال taxes
+
+549
+00:38:34,160 --> 00:38:37,500
+كمان بيحطيله what is the level of tax he has to
+
+550
+00:38:37,500 --> 00:38:40,860
+pay كدهش الضريبة او هو if he want to invest in a
+
+551
+00:38:40,860 --> 00:38:44,540
+particular taxshields is fine يعني هو بي .. بي ..
+
+552
+00:38:44,540 --> 00:38:48,480
+بده يستثمر في .. في شغلات انه مابتدفعش tax
+
+553
+00:38:48,480 --> 00:38:52,140
+فبنحكيله unique needs هذه ال unique needs is
+
+554
+00:38:52,140 --> 00:38:57,480
+important احتياجات خاصة طبعا في الكتاب بيحكوا على
+
+555
+00:38:57,480 --> 00:39:02,060
+الاحتياجات الخاصة في المجتمع الغربي مثلا احتياجات
+
+556
+00:39:02,060 --> 00:39:07,000
+خاصة مثلا انه .. انه انا بدي ا .. ا .. I don't
+
+557
+00:39:07,000 --> 00:39:11,920
+want to invest in ..in wine companies in .. in
+
+558
+00:39:11,920 --> 00:39:15,700
+companies who producing wine يعني ت .. تعطونيش
+
+559
+00:39:15,700 --> 00:39:21,060
+مثلا تستثمريش أموالي في بنوك تستثمريش أموالي في
+
+560
+00:39:21,060 --> 00:39:25,260
+شركات تنتج الخمور تنتج .. يعني هاي some
+
+561
+00:39:25,260 --> 00:39:28,980
+constraints unique needs بعض الاحتياجات الخاصة حسب
+
+562
+00:39:28,980 --> 00:39:33,640
+موجود في الكتاب مثلا أنه في معاطب بالكتاب أنه ال
+
+563
+00:39:33,640 --> 00:39:36,140
+.. عادة في الفكر الأوروبي في الناحية الاقتصادية
+
+564
+00:39:36,140 --> 00:39:40,110
+الزوج والزوجة بيكونوا مشتركين في الحسابيعني هذا
+
+565
+00:39:40,110 --> 00:39:44,390
+أول شرط للزواج بيعتبروا أنه يكون في account مفتوح
+
+566
+00:39:44,390 --> 00:39:49,690
+للطرفين and they use this accountاه يحق للطرف هذا
+
+567
+00:39:49,690 --> 00:39:52,750
+يستخدم هذا ال .. فهذا is unique needs بعض احتياجات
+
+568
+00:39:52,750 --> 00:39:56,950
+خاصة ان ال investment companies asking انه تكون ال
+
+569
+00:39:56,950 --> 00:40:00,350
+.. ال .. ال .. ال couples are allowed to .. to
+
+570
+00:40:00,350 --> 00:40:02,730
+manage the investment ان هم يديروا هذا الاستثمار
+
+571
+00:40:02,730 --> 00:40:06,050
+طبعا هذه حاجات بتخص ال .. ال .. بعض المجتمعات
+
+572
+00:40:06,050 --> 00:40:10,730
+الغربية مثلا في بعض ال .. الناس بيقولك انا مابديش
+
+573
+00:40:10,730 --> 00:40:16,340
+استثمر في استثمارات مثلا تنتج سلاحاو استثمارات
+
+574
+00:40:16,340 --> 00:40:22,400
+مثلا تكون فيها شغلات محرمة بالشريعة الإسلامية او
+
+575
+00:40:22,400 --> 00:40:27,340
+مثلا في ناس .. انا شوفت ناس شرطهم انه مايستثمر ..
+
+576
+00:40:27,340 --> 00:40:32,180
+استثمروش في ال tobacco او بيسموها green .. green
+
+577
+00:40:32,180 --> 00:40:36,400
+funds green funds ايهاش green funds؟ انه انا بدي
+
+578
+00:40:36,400 --> 00:40:39,820
+اموالي بس تستثمر في شركات ما .. لا ت .. ما بتتدخل
+
+579
+00:40:39,820 --> 00:40:43,280
+.. يعني ما بتستثمرش في ال tobacco industries في ال
+
+580
+00:40:43,280 --> 00:40:48,890
+..في الدخان حتى في ناس كمان العكس إذا في تبرعات
+
+581
+00:40:48,890 --> 00:40:52,670
+بيقبلوهاش يعني أنا شوفت جامعات في أوروبا إنه هذه
+
+582
+00:40:52,670 --> 00:40:57,630
+الجامعة بتقول شرطها إنه أنا لا أستقبل تبرعات من
+
+583
+00:40:57,630 --> 00:41:02,870
+شركات ال tobacco حقهم
+
+584
+00:41:02,870 --> 00:41:07,790
+ليش؟ عشان مايشجعهم مش إنهم ي .. فهذا جزء من ال
+
+585
+00:41:07,790 --> 00:41:11,510
+policy تبعتهم فهذه بيسموها special needs or unique
+
+586
+00:41:11,510 --> 00:41:15,840
+needsال policies لكل واحدة asset allocation لـ
+
+587
+00:41:15,840 --> 00:41:19,560
+liquidity, diversification, tax, risk positioning
+
+588
+00:41:19,560 --> 00:41:25,280
+هدول أمثلة خلينا بس هاي تفاصيلهم ال constraints
+
+589
+00:41:25,280 --> 00:41:28,840
+الليكودي تفاصيلها ال investment process ال
+
+590
+00:41:28,840 --> 00:41:31,900
+regulations تفاصيلها ال tax consideration و ال
+
+591
+00:41:31,900 --> 00:41:35,700
+unique needs ال policy statement هاي مثال على ال
+
+592
+00:41:35,700 --> 00:41:40,260
+policy statementOkay ال governance شرحتها بيكون
+
+593
+00:41:40,260 --> 00:41:42,440
+عندى governance فى ال .. فى ال investments أنه كل
+
+594
+00:41:42,440 --> 00:41:48,500
+واحد بيكون اللى واجبات و بيكون فى عندى internal
+
+595
+00:41:48,500 --> 00:41:52,020
+and external managers monitoring the .. the
+
+596
+00:41:52,020 --> 00:41:54,700
+results كمان شرحناه و risk management appropriate
+
+597
+00:41:54,700 --> 00:41:59,420
+reporting عملية كتابة تقاريرلازم يكون كل فترة
+
+598
+00:41:59,420 --> 00:42:01,900
+زمانية نعرف إيه إيش ال .. ال .. ال investment
+
+599
+00:42:01,900 --> 00:42:05,940
+accountability مين مسئول في حالة الاستثمارات،
+
+600
+00:42:05,940 --> 00:42:09,300
+خسرات أو .. a course of actions in case of market
+
+601
+00:42:09,300 --> 00:42:13,560
+طبعا هذا ال asset allocation شرحناه ب chapter one،
+
+602
+00:42:13,560 --> 00:42:20,460
+تمام؟ but .. but صور إحنا نجف عند هذا الحد، عند
+
+603
+00:42:20,460 --> 00:42:22,280
+managing portfolio of individual investments
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/Qunp8-IbDZg_raw.json b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/Qunp8-IbDZg_raw.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..921816217744a63419f1a5f1c82a095ea8cece3e
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/Qunp8-IbDZg_raw.json
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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لو جينا احنا حكينا قروبه قيمولها ال .. قيمولها ال stock أساسي سهم لو جينا احنا بدنا نقيم سهم سهم مثلا IBM what are the tools that you can use ايش ال tools اللي انتوا ممكن تستخدموها", "tokens": [270, 311, 7187, 45164, 10874, 1829, 8315, 1975, 5016, 8315, 11331, 4117, 1829, 8315, 12174, 32887, 3555, 3224, 12174, 32640, 12610, 11296, 2423, 4386, 12174, 32640, 12610, 11296, 2423, 4127, 5551, 3794, 32277, 1829, 8608, 16095, 45164, 10874, 1829, 8315, 1975, 5016, 8315, 47525, 8315, 8717, 4587, 32640, 8608, 16095, 8608, 16095, 50113, 15040, 23487, 437, 366, 264, 3873, 300, 291, 393, 764, 1975, 1829, 8592, 2423, 3873, 13672, 1829, 16472, 2655, 14407, 3714, 43020, 6055, 14851, 9778, 40448, 2407, 11296], "avg_logprob": -0.2694359879668166, "compression_ratio": 1.5891891891891892, "no_speech_prob": 5.960464477539063e-08, "words": [{"start": 1080.62, "end": 1080.8, "word": "it's", "probability": 0.4876708984375}, {"start": 1080.8, "end": 1081.14, "word": " chapter", "probability": 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"word": " the", "probability": 0.64599609375}, {"start": 1637.98, "end": 1638.56, "word": " prices", "probability": 0.7841796875}, {"start": 1638.56, "end": 1640.64, "word": " deviate", "probability": 0.8046875}, {"start": 1640.64, "end": 1641.04, "word": " from", "probability": 0.9091796875}, {"start": 1641.04, "end": 1641.42, "word": " their", "probability": 0.8564453125}, {"start": 1641.42, "end": 1642.4, "word": " fundamental", "probability": 0.67431640625}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 65, "seek": 166365, "start": 1643.83, "end": 1663.65, "text": "بتقول احنا أخدنا ال risk and return وحكينا the prices should be on the security market line sometimes there is mispricing so the role of active management is to correct this and making the price or making the stocks to be on the line okay هذا بيسموهم ال active management", "tokens": [3555, 2655, 39648, 1975, 5016, 8315, 5551, 9778, 3215, 8315, 2423, 3148, 293, 2736, 4032, 5016, 4117, 1829, 8315, 264, 7901, 820, 312, 322, 264, 3825, 2142, 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"probability": 0.92919921875}, {"start": 1658.05, "end": 1658.33, "word": " making", "probability": 0.92529296875}, {"start": 1658.33, "end": 1658.53, "word": " the", "probability": 0.9228515625}, {"start": 1658.53, "end": 1658.95, "word": " price", "probability": 0.81298828125}, {"start": 1658.95, "end": 1659.21, "word": " or", "probability": 0.8095703125}, {"start": 1659.21, "end": 1659.47, "word": " making", "probability": 0.86962890625}, {"start": 1659.47, "end": 1659.67, "word": " the", "probability": 0.9130859375}, {"start": 1659.67, "end": 1659.91, "word": " stocks", "probability": 0.822265625}, {"start": 1659.91, "end": 1660.15, "word": " to", "probability": 0.96728515625}, {"start": 1660.15, "end": 1660.29, "word": " be", "probability": 0.9560546875}, {"start": 1660.29, "end": 1660.49, "word": " on", "probability": 0.958984375}, {"start": 1660.49, "end": 1660.59, "word": " the", "probability": 0.9296875}, {"start": 1660.59, "end": 1660.87, "word": " line", "probability": 0.94873046875}, {"start": 1660.87, "end": 1662.31, "word": " okay", "probability": 0.467041015625}, {"start": 1662.31, "end": 1662.55, "word": " هذا", "probability": 0.76904296875}, {"start": 1662.55, "end": 1662.95, "word": " بيسموهم", "probability": 0.8609375}, {"start": 1662.95, "end": 1663.07, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.5439453125}, {"start": 1663.07, "end": 1663.31, "word": " active", "probability": 0.85595703125}, {"start": 1663.31, "end": 1663.65, "word": " management", "probability": 0.900390625}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 66, "seek": 168867, "start": 1665.27, "end": 1688.67, "text": "this is an expensive strategy هذي expensive strategy بتكلفهم كتير why? because they .. they want to collect a fundamental information to know which is the inefficient prices or which stock is inefficient or which stock is mispriced و أي سهم هو عليه mispriced يعني مش مسعر بطريقة صحية", "tokens": [11176, 307, 364, 5124, 5206, 8032, 8848, 1829, 5124, 5206, 39894, 28820, 5172, 16095, 9122, 2655, 13546, 983, 30, 570, 436, 4386, 436, 528, 281, 2500, 257, 8088, 1589, 281, 458, 597, 307, 264, 43495, 7901, 420, 597, 4127, 307, 43495, 420, 597, 4127, 307, 3346, 79, 1341, 292, 4032, 36632, 8608, 16095, 31439, 47356, 3346, 79, 1341, 292, 37495, 22653, 37893, 47524, 3615, 2288, 4724, 9566, 16572, 28671, 20328, 5016, 10632], "avg_logprob": -0.1723030789257729, "compression_ratio": 1.4954545454545454, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 1665.27, "end": 1665.57, "word": "this", "probability": 0.32470703125}, {"start": 1665.57, "end": 1665.69, "word": " is", "probability": 0.97216796875}, {"start": 1665.69, "end": 1665.85, "word": " an", "probability": 0.91259765625}, {"start": 1665.85, "end": 1666.31, "word": " expensive", "probability": 0.94921875}, {"start": 1666.31, "end": 1667.07, "word": " strategy", "probability": 0.8447265625}, {"start": 1667.07, "end": 1667.95, "word": " هذي", "probability": 0.4597981770833333}, {"start": 1667.95, "end": 1668.33, "word": " expensive", "probability": 0.9521484375}, {"start": 1668.33, "end": 1668.91, "word": " strategy", "probability": 0.72509765625}, {"start": 1668.91, "end": 1669.75, "word": " بتكلفهم", "probability": 0.9686279296875}, {"start": 1669.75, "end": 1670.13, "word": " كتير", "probability": 0.97216796875}, {"start": 1670.13, "end": 1670.63, "word": " why?", "probability": 0.86181640625}, {"start": 1670.91, "end": 1671.25, "word": " because", "probability": 0.89111328125}, {"start": 1671.25, "end": 1671.49, "word": " they", "probability": 0.9462890625}, {"start": 1671.49, "end": 1671.59, "word": " ..", "probability": 0.54150390625}, {"start": 1671.59, "end": 1671.75, "word": " they", "probability": 0.88916015625}, {"start": 1671.75, "end": 1671.97, "word": " want", "probability": 0.94287109375}, {"start": 1671.97, "end": 1672.07, "word": " to", "probability": 0.98583984375}, {"start": 1672.07, "end": 1672.41, "word": " collect", "probability": 0.95166015625}, {"start": 1672.41, "end": 1672.83, "word": " a", "probability": 0.58203125}, {"start": 1672.83, "end": 1673.19, "word": " fundamental", "probability": 0.85791015625}, {"start": 1673.19, "end": 1673.85, "word": " information", "probability": 0.91650390625}, {"start": 1673.85, "end": 1674.81, "word": " to", "probability": 0.98291015625}, {"start": 1674.81, "end": 1675.21, "word": " know", "probability": 0.919921875}, {"start": 1675.21, "end": 1676.43, "word": " which", "probability": 0.978515625}, {"start": 1676.43, "end": 1676.95, "word": " is", "probability": 0.97021484375}, {"start": 1676.95, "end": 1677.33, "word": " the", "probability": 0.9208984375}, {"start": 1677.33, "end": 1677.97, "word": " inefficient", "probability": 0.95556640625}, {"start": 1677.97, "end": 1678.95, "word": " prices", "probability": 0.91064453125}, {"start": 1678.95, "end": 1679.59, "word": " or", "probability": 0.8740234375}, {"start": 1679.59, "end": 1679.87, "word": " which", "probability": 0.96875}, {"start": 1679.87, "end": 1680.23, "word": " stock", "probability": 0.81884765625}, {"start": 1680.23, "end": 1680.43, "word": " is", "probability": 0.96337890625}, {"start": 1680.43, "end": 1680.91, "word": " inefficient", "probability": 0.96044921875}, {"start": 1680.91, "end": 1681.91, "word": " or", "probability": 0.9306640625}, {"start": 1681.91, "end": 1682.13, "word": " which", "probability": 0.96337890625}, {"start": 1682.13, "end": 1682.47, "word": " stock", "probability": 0.84423828125}, {"start": 1682.47, "end": 1682.81, "word": " is", "probability": 0.9658203125}, {"start": 1682.81, "end": 1684.29, "word": " mispriced", "probability": 0.889404296875}, {"start": 1684.29, "end": 1684.49, "word": " و", "probability": 0.7021484375}, {"start": 1684.49, "end": 1684.69, "word": " أي", "probability": 0.689453125}, {"start": 1684.69, "end": 1685.11, "word": " سهم", "probability": 0.97900390625}, {"start": 1685.11, "end": 1685.41, "word": " هو", "probability": 0.94677734375}, {"start": 1685.41, "end": 1686.47, "word": " عليه", "probability": 0.75732421875}, {"start": 1686.47, "end": 1687.03, "word": " mispriced", "probability": 0.9039306640625}, {"start": 1687.03, "end": 1687.21, "word": " يعني", "probability": 0.937255859375}, {"start": 1687.21, "end": 1687.53, "word": " مش", "probability": 0.98046875}, {"start": 1687.53, "end": 1687.95, "word": " مسعر", "probability": 0.9109700520833334}, {"start": 1687.95, "end": 1688.27, "word": " بطريقة", "probability": 0.890380859375}, {"start": 1688.27, "end": 1688.67, "word": " صحية", "probability": 0.8497721354166666}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 67, "seek": 170467, "start": 1691.65, "end": 1704.67, "text": "because they spend a lot of money on collecting fundamental and private information so it is not suitable for the small investors يعني مش كويسة على small investors يعني الواحد مستخدم اللي عنده one hundred dollar", "tokens": [17566, 436, 3496, 257, 688, 295, 1460, 322, 12510, 8088, 293, 4551, 1589, 370, 309, 307, 406, 12873, 337, 264, 1359, 11519, 37495, 22653, 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"word": " okay", "probability": 0.85888671875}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 73, "seek": 184804, "start": 1845.06, "end": 1848.04, "text": "So this is the active and passive management", "tokens": [6455, 341, 307, 264, 4967, 293, 14975, 4592], "avg_logprob": -0.1391059027777778, "compression_ratio": 0.9361702127659575, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 1845.06, "end": 1845.32, "word": "So", "probability": 0.59521484375}, {"start": 1845.32, "end": 1845.56, "word": " this", "probability": 0.74755859375}, {"start": 1845.56, "end": 1845.74, "word": " is", "probability": 0.9638671875}, {"start": 1845.74, "end": 1845.98, "word": " the", "probability": 0.90283203125}, {"start": 1845.98, "end": 1846.88, "word": " active", "probability": 0.9052734375}, {"start": 1846.88, "end": 1847.24, "word": " and", "probability": 0.9619140625}, {"start": 1847.24, "end": 1847.68, "word": " passive", "probability": 0.96923828125}, {"start": 1847.68, "end": 1848.04, "word": " management", 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\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/Qunp8-IbDZg_raw.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/Qunp8-IbDZg_raw.srt
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index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..011dc6c34663d825e0b3df5f53555a33341bfedd
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+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/Qunp8-IbDZg_raw.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1644 @@
+1
+00:00:20,650 --> 00:00:25,090
+الله الرحمن الرحيم في
+
+2
+00:00:25,090 --> 00:00:28,990
+اللقاء الماضي كنا نحكي على ال versions of the
+
+3
+00:00:28,990 --> 00:00:31,550
+efficient market hypothesis اللي عندنا ال weak
+
+4
+00:00:31,550 --> 00:00:34,250
+market و عندنا ال semi strong market و strong
+
+5
+00:00:34,250 --> 00:00:38,550
+market the main differences between the versions
+
+6
+00:00:38,550 --> 00:00:41,550
+of the efficient market hypothesis to what extent
+
+7
+00:00:41,550 --> 00:00:45,230
+the information is incorporated in the prices يعني
+
+8
+00:00:45,230 --> 00:00:50,250
+الفرق ال .. ال .. ال .. الوحيداللي بيفرق بين أنواع
+
+9
+00:00:50,250 --> 00:00:55,070
+الكفاءات السوق هي لأي حد بتنعكس المعلومات في
+
+10
+00:00:55,070 --> 00:00:59,710
+الأسعار فإذا كانت المعلومات في حالة ال weak market
+
+11
+00:00:59,710 --> 00:01:02,950
+السوق الضعيف بتعكس فقط ال historical prices
+
+12
+00:01:02,950 --> 00:01:06,920
+الأسعار التاريخية بيكون هذا weakإذا كان ال semi
+
+13
+00:01:06,920 --> 00:01:11,060
+-strong market بيعكس الأسعار التاريخية بالإضافة
+
+14
+00:01:11,060 --> 00:01:14,320
+للأسعار الأساسية أو المعلومات الأساسية بيكون semi
+
+15
+00:01:14,320 --> 00:01:17,160
+-strong market ال strong market بيعكس كل أنواع
+
+16
+00:01:17,160 --> 00:01:21,100
+الأسعار كل أنواع المعلومات و في اللقاء الفات يعني
+
+17
+00:01:21,100 --> 00:01:24,060
+بس أذكركم أن ال .. ال .. ال .. ال previous meeting
+
+18
+00:01:24,060 --> 00:01:29,420
+we say this is a weak market and this is the semi
+
+19
+00:01:29,420 --> 00:01:33,460
+-strong market and the last one is the strong
+
+20
+00:01:33,460 --> 00:01:41,520
+marketالسوق الضعيف يشبه أسعار التاريخ أو المعلومات
+
+21
+00:01:41,520 --> 00:01:46,780
+التاريخية، والسوق الضعيف يشبه أسعار التاريخ،
+
+22
+00:01:46,780 --> 00:01:51,020
+المعلومات التاريخية ومعلومات الأساسية، والسوق
+
+23
+00:01:51,020 --> 00:01:56,660
+الضعيف يشبه أسعار التاريخ، المعلومات التاريخية
+
+24
+00:01:56,660 --> 00:02:01,560
+ومعلومات الأساسيةOkay So this is the thing
+
+25
+00:02:01,560 --> 00:02:04,800
+Regarding your exam one of the questions in your
+
+26
+00:02:04,800 --> 00:02:09,520
+exam is like correct the following statement يعني
+
+27
+00:02:09,520 --> 00:02:15,080
+في حسب الامتحان صحح المعلومات التالية خلينا
+
+28
+00:02:15,080 --> 00:02:19,540
+نعطيكوا مثال The weak market reflects
+
+29
+00:02:31,130 --> 00:02:36,470
+المعلومات القانونية فقط تقوم بإصلاح هذا الموضوع
+
+30
+00:02:36,470 --> 00:02:39,650
+لديك
+
+31
+00:02:39,650 --> 00:02:43,950
+2 اختيارات يمكنك أن ترى أن هذا مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم
+
+32
+00:02:43,950 --> 00:02:44,470
+مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم
+
+33
+00:02:44,470 --> 00:02:45,390
+مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم
+
+34
+00:02:45,390 --> 00:02:49,290
+مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم مصمم
+
+35
+00:02:49,290 --> 00:02:49,290
+مصمم مصممم مصممم مصممم مصممم مصممم مصممم مصممم
+
+36
+00:02:49,290 --> 00:02:57,930
+مصممم مصم
+
+37
+00:02:58,600 --> 00:03:07,760
+نشوف السؤال الآخر كيف هتنعامل معاه The
+
+38
+00:03:07,760 --> 00:03:16,380
+strong market incorporates
+
+39
+00:03:16,380 --> 00:03:21,360
+the
+
+40
+00:03:21,360 --> 00:03:27,200
+historical information
+
+41
+00:03:30,960 --> 00:03:38,580
+and fundamental information and
+
+42
+00:03:38,580 --> 00:03:45,100
+fundamental information what
+
+43
+00:03:45,100 --> 00:03:48,160
+do you think فقط فقط ولا مش فقط okay only for
+
+44
+00:03:48,160 --> 00:03:55,220
+instance corrective corrective where is the answer
+
+45
+00:03:55,220 --> 00:03:56,020
+the correct answer
+
+46
+00:03:59,130 --> 00:04:06,790
+بدل strong, semi-strong أو strong markets you just
+
+47
+00:04:06,790 --> 00:04:12,990
+add here and drive it okay I think this is very
+
+48
+00:04:12,990 --> 00:04:16,490
+simple questions هدول أسئلة سهلة and you can
+
+49
+00:04:16,490 --> 00:04:19,930
+easily handle these questions okay just be careful
+
+50
+00:04:19,930 --> 00:04:25,210
+on these questions انتبهوا لهذه الأسئلة you need
+
+51
+00:04:25,210 --> 00:04:33,090
+to correct the answerOkay then based on this
+
+52
+00:04:33,090 --> 00:04:37,390
+understanding we have two point of views some
+
+53
+00:04:37,390 --> 00:04:40,870
+people think that the financial market is not
+
+54
+00:04:40,870 --> 00:04:47,170
+efficient and is not follow the random walk others
+
+55
+00:04:47,170 --> 00:04:50,950
+think that the financial market is efficient and
+
+56
+00:04:50,950 --> 00:04:54,070
+follow a random walk يعني بعض الناس بعتقدوا أن
+
+57
+00:04:54,070 --> 00:04:58,800
+السوق المالي مش efficientوما بيعكس السوق المالي ما
+
+58
+00:04:58,800 --> 00:05:04,160
+بيعكس السلوك العشوائي للأسعار وبعض الناس بيحكوا
+
+59
+00:05:04,160 --> 00:05:07,760
+بيحكوا لأ ان السوق المالي is efficient كفه وبيعكس
+
+60
+00:05:07,760 --> 00:05:13,420
+السلوك .. وبيعكس السلوك العشوائي للأسعار طبعا بال
+
+61
+00:05:13,420 --> 00:05:16,180
+meeting اللى فتنات حكينا بال technical analysis
+
+62
+00:05:16,180 --> 00:05:20,380
+الناس اللى بيدعموا فكرة ال financial market is not
+
+63
+00:05:20,380 --> 00:05:26,220
+efficientthey think on the technical analysis
+
+64
+00:05:26,220 --> 00:05:28,660
+بعتقدوا بال technical analysis so they are using
+
+65
+00:05:28,660 --> 00:05:31,060
+technical analysis why they are using technical
+
+66
+00:05:31,060 --> 00:05:35,380
+analysis because they think that the historical
+
+67
+00:05:35,380 --> 00:05:38,320
+prices is reflected itself بعتقدوا أن الأسعار
+
+68
+00:05:38,320 --> 00:05:42,520
+التاريخية بتعكس نفسها بنفسها so they are using the
+
+69
+00:05:42,520 --> 00:05:46,040
+charts لذلك وما بيستخدموا إيش ال chart إيش معناه
+
+70
+00:05:46,040 --> 00:05:51,800
+ال chart اللي هو المقاطعة البيانية فاهم بقىThe
+
+71
+00:05:51,800 --> 00:05:54,360
+success depends on a sluggish response of stock
+
+72
+00:05:54,360 --> 00:05:57,400
+prices to fundamental supply and demand factors،
+
+73
+00:05:57,400 --> 00:06:03,440
+بعتقده أن ال technical analysis بترتب عليه ردود
+
+74
+00:06:03,440 --> 00:06:07,660
+فعل بطيئة
+
+75
+00:06:07,660 --> 00:06:12,410
+للمعلومات الأساسيةweak firm efficiency relative
+
+76
+00:06:12,410 --> 00:06:15,870
+strength طبعا زي ما حكينا مرة فاتت بس تلخيص احنا
+
+77
+00:06:15,870 --> 00:06:20,570
+بنحكي انه في ال technical analysis بيحللوا ال
+
+78
+00:06:20,570 --> 00:06:24,650
+prices و بيحللوا ال trading volume و اظن ان انا
+
+79
+00:06:24,650 --> 00:06:29,560
+اعطيكم مثال على الشموع اليابانيةفاكرين؟ و اقتنعكوا
+
+80
+00:06:29,560 --> 00:06:32,200
+كمان على ال resistance and support اللي هو نقاط
+
+81
+00:06:32,200 --> 00:06:35,740
+الدعم و نقاط المقاومة و فيه هنا كتب موجودة بتوضح
+
+82
+00:06:35,740 --> 00:06:39,280
+العلاقات هذه بشكل كبير فممكن انتوا ترجعوا فيها بس
+
+83
+00:06:39,280 --> 00:06:45,500
+لمعلوماتكم الخاصة هاي عندنا مثال لما تكون
+
+84
+00:06:45,500 --> 00:06:49,640
+highlight channel when the price is close to the
+
+85
+00:06:49,640 --> 00:06:53,180
+to the top to the resistance the resistance
+
+86
+00:06:53,180 --> 00:06:57,510
+pushing the price downSo the .. the investors
+
+87
+00:06:57,510 --> 00:07:00,510
+selling the price .. the stocks and when the
+
+88
+00:07:00,510 --> 00:07:04,470
+prices is going down and try to .. to touch or to
+
+89
+00:07:04,470 --> 00:07:07,510
+hit the support line, this is the support line,
+
+90
+00:07:08,230 --> 00:07:11,410
+the buyers try to trade and buy their stocks in
+
+91
+00:07:11,410 --> 00:07:14,210
+order to .. to make it up حتى يدفعوا الأسعار
+
+92
+00:07:14,210 --> 00:07:18,630
+للأسفل، بتلاحظوا لما يوصل عند القاعال support
+
+93
+00:07:18,630 --> 00:07:22,470
+فبتحاول الأسعار تطلع لما تصدم في القمة بتحاول
+
+94
+00:07:22,470 --> 00:07:26,490
+الأسعار to what extent this is right إلى أي درجة
+
+95
+00:07:26,490 --> 00:07:29,550
+هذا صحيح some people as I said believe on this
+
+96
+00:07:29,550 --> 00:07:32,350
+others they don't believe on this بعض الناس
+
+97
+00:07:32,350 --> 00:07:36,670
+بيعتقدوا بالكلام هذا و ناس بيعتقدوه مش بالكلام and
+
+98
+00:07:36,670 --> 00:07:42,370
+this is similar to this this is the topthis is the
+
+99
+00:07:42,370 --> 00:07:45,710
+resistance and this is support the question is why
+
+100
+00:07:45,710 --> 00:07:53,450
+this channel is moved up ليش اخترقت نقطة الدعم
+
+101
+00:07:53,450 --> 00:08:00,670
+نقطة المقاومة اخترقها سبب انه بيعتبروا there is
+
+102
+00:08:00,670 --> 00:08:05,930
+event في حدث صار في السوق and this line وهذه نقطة
+
+103
+00:08:05,930 --> 00:08:09,980
+المقاومة ماقدرتش to push the price downماقدرتش
+
+104
+00:08:09,980 --> 00:08:16,040
+تدفع الأسعار الأسفل فكان the strength and the fast
+
+105
+00:08:16,040 --> 00:08:19,580
+or the speed of price is stronger than the
+
+106
+00:08:19,580 --> 00:08:23,620
+resistance يعني كانت قوة الأسعار و سرعة الأسعار
+
+107
+00:08:23,620 --> 00:08:29,090
+أقوى من المقاومةوبالتالي اخترقت الحاجز المقاومة
+
+108
+00:08:29,090 --> 00:08:33,630
+وبدأت تطلع إلى مستويات أعلى and having a new
+
+109
+00:08:33,630 --> 00:08:39,450
+resistance and having a new position وتتجه لمجال
+
+110
+00:08:39,450 --> 00:08:44,330
+جديد هذا بالنسبة لل technical analysis let's talk
+
+111
+00:08:44,330 --> 00:08:47,290
+about the fundamental analysis fundamental
+
+112
+00:08:47,290 --> 00:08:50,870
+analysis people think that the financial market is
+
+113
+00:08:50,870 --> 00:08:54,010
+efficient they believe on the fundamental analysis
+
+114
+00:08:54,870 --> 00:08:59,950
+and they claim that the prices reflect economic ..
+
+115
+00:08:59,950 --> 00:09:03,630
+economic financial accounting and industrial data
+
+116
+00:09:03,630 --> 00:09:08,890
+بيعتقدوا بتوع ال fundamental analysis أن الأسواق
+
+117
+00:09:08,890 --> 00:09:12,330
+المالية أو الأسعار بتعكس معلومات حقيقية بتعكس
+
+118
+00:09:12,330 --> 00:09:15,190
+معلومات اقتصادية، معلومات مالية، معلومات محاسبية،
+
+119
+00:09:15,190 --> 00:09:19,460
+معلومات مستخبرية عن المنشأةand this is opposite to
+
+120
+00:09:19,460 --> 00:09:21,500
+the technical analysis وهذا بعكس ال technical
+
+121
+00:09:21,500 --> 00:09:24,000
+analysis ال technical analysis depends on the
+
+122
+00:09:24,000 --> 00:09:27,320
+chart and saying that the prices is repeated
+
+123
+00:09:27,320 --> 00:09:30,940
+itself technical analysis يعني التعوين التحديد
+
+124
+00:09:30,940 --> 00:09:33,620
+الفنلي بيعتقدوا أن الأسعار بتكرر نفسها لكن بال
+
+125
+00:09:33,620 --> 00:09:40,680
+fundamental analysis they think that the prices
+
+126
+00:09:40,680 --> 00:09:45,540
+reflected the fundamental value of the stock تعكس
+
+127
+00:09:45,540 --> 00:09:53,470
+القيمة الحقية لل stockخلّينا نشوف why
+
+128
+00:09:53,470 --> 00:09:55,690
+it is important fundamental analysis as I
+
+129
+00:09:55,690 --> 00:09:57,910
+explained fundamental analysis using economic
+
+130
+00:09:57,910 --> 00:10:00,670
+accounting information to predict stock prices
+
+131
+00:10:00,670 --> 00:10:06,730
+يعني بيحاولوا يستخدموا ال economic وال accounting
+
+132
+00:10:06,730 --> 00:10:11,000
+information طبعا هي ال economicمش ال economic اللي
+
+133
+00:10:11,000 --> 00:10:14,440
+احنا بنفهمها بطريقة بسيطة ال economics including
+
+134
+00:10:14,440 --> 00:10:18,180
+the economics, including the industrial, the
+
+135
+00:10:18,180 --> 00:10:20,700
+competition, the interest rates, unemployment
+
+136
+00:10:20,700 --> 00:10:23,900
+everything related to the economy كل شيء بتعلق
+
+137
+00:10:23,900 --> 00:10:29,580
+بالاقتصاد منها المنافسة منها التطور للصناعة منها
+
+138
+00:10:29,580 --> 00:10:33,560
+ال export و ال import everything related to الفعل
+
+139
+00:10:34,360 --> 00:10:37,960
+منها ال risk and return of the firm and the
+
+140
+00:10:37,960 --> 00:10:39,740
+accounting information accounting information
+
+141
+00:10:39,740 --> 00:10:42,880
+which also includes the financial information بت
+
+142
+00:10:42,880 --> 00:10:45,200
+.. بتضم كمان معها ال financial information
+
+143
+00:10:45,200 --> 00:10:49,780
+المعلومات المالية if you look at here fundamental
+
+144
+00:10:49,780 --> 00:10:52,100
+analysis هدول الناس اللي بيقتنعوا بال fundamental
+
+145
+00:10:52,100 --> 00:10:55,800
+analysis و and they call them fundamentals يعني
+
+146
+00:10:55,800 --> 00:10:59,300
+الناس ال fundamentals are fundamentalist الناس
+
+147
+00:10:59,300 --> 00:11:02,440
+اللي بيقاموا بال .. بالتحليل الأساسيأو fundamental
+
+148
+00:11:02,440 --> 00:11:05,740
+analysis they try to calculate the fundamental
+
+149
+00:11:05,740 --> 00:11:11,120
+price بحاولوا أنه بناء على المعلومات الاقتصادية
+
+150
+00:11:11,120 --> 00:11:14,740
+والمعلومات المالية والمحاسبية ووضع السوق بحاولوا
+
+151
+00:11:14,740 --> 00:11:19,040
+يتنبأوا بالسعر الحقيقي ال fundamental فلنفترض احنا
+
+152
+00:11:19,040 --> 00:11:23,050
+for instance the fundamental price is V0لو احنا
+
+153
+00:11:23,050 --> 00:11:26,850
+حسبنا ال fundamental price is V0، V is stand for
+
+154
+00:11:26,850 --> 00:11:30,170
+the value, the value of stock، بتوع ال financial
+
+155
+00:11:30,170 --> 00:11:34,570
+management في الإدارة المالية، اذا درستوها، في
+
+156
+00:11:34,570 --> 00:11:38,270
+الإدارة المالية احنا حسبنا how to calculate the V0
+
+157
+00:11:39,540 --> 00:11:42,240
+خاصة تعوين ال financial management in English
+
+158
+00:11:42,240 --> 00:11:45,280
+والتعوين ال financial management in Arabic يعني
+
+159
+00:11:45,280 --> 00:11:52,920
+أكيد أخدته كيف نحتسب القيمة الحقيقية لسعر السهم
+
+160
+00:11:53,680 --> 00:11:58,340
+Okay فهي ال V note فإذا حسبنا ال V note خلينا ناخد
+
+161
+00:11:58,340 --> 00:12:01,440
+مثلا نفترض ال V note is fifty percent fifty dollar
+
+162
+00:12:01,440 --> 00:12:06,020
+سعر سهم حسبناه بناء على ال based on the economic
+
+163
+00:12:06,020 --> 00:12:10,520
+accounting information data the V note is equal
+
+164
+00:12:10,520 --> 00:12:13,860
+fifty dollar V note هذي estimated
+
+165
+00:12:16,470 --> 00:12:20,890
+it means هذا المتوقع we think that the fair price
+
+166
+00:12:20,890 --> 00:12:23,630
+and the fundamental price of this stock is fifty
+
+167
+00:12:23,630 --> 00:12:28,790
+dollars يعني احنا بنعتقد سعر السهم اللازم يكون
+
+168
+00:12:28,790 --> 00:12:32,570
+خمسين دولار سعره الحقيقي بناء على ايش؟ بناء على
+
+169
+00:12:32,570 --> 00:12:35,470
+المعلومات ال economic الاقتصاد ومعلومات ال
+
+170
+00:12:35,470 --> 00:12:40,530
+accounting و ال financial و everything now the B
+
+171
+00:12:40,530 --> 00:12:45,040
+note which is the market priceهذا السعر الحقيقي
+
+172
+00:12:45,040 --> 00:12:51,640
+الموجود في السوق market price is for instance 40$
+
+173
+00:12:51,640 --> 00:12:55,640
+روحنا
+
+174
+00:12:55,640 --> 00:12:59,660
+احنا حسبنا السعر كان 50$ حسبنا حسبنا لما روحنا
+
+175
+00:12:59,660 --> 00:13:05,240
+السوق نشوف قيمة السهم في السوق لنقر 40$ what do
+
+176
+00:13:05,240 --> 00:13:09,640
+you think ايش رأيكوا buy او sell نشريها للشركة و
+
+177
+00:13:09,640 --> 00:13:22,630
+لنبيها نشريها whyis under priced نشريها صح buy
+
+178
+00:13:22,630 --> 00:13:27,050
+احنا بنعمل buy buy this stock because the
+
+179
+00:13:27,050 --> 00:13:30,450
+fundamental price is fifty dollarthe fundamental
+
+180
+00:13:30,450 --> 00:13:34,390
+it means the real price is fifty dollars however
+
+181
+00:13:34,390 --> 00:13:37,050
+the market price is forty dollars which is below
+
+182
+00:13:37,050 --> 00:13:42,070
+the expected price so it means the market
+
+183
+00:13:42,070 --> 00:13:45,310
+mechanisms or the investors try to buy this price
+
+184
+00:13:45,310 --> 00:13:48,630
+to go to this price يعني بده يحاول يشتري هذا السعر
+
+185
+00:13:48,630 --> 00:13:53,830
+حتى يساوي هذا السعر so this is under priced okay
+
+186
+00:13:53,830 --> 00:13:59,010
+if the opposite إذا كان العكسwe calculate this by
+
+187
+00:13:59,010 --> 00:14:03,030
+fifty dollar but the .. so you understand this
+
+188
+00:14:03,030 --> 00:14:11,510
+واضح okay if .. اسمها ايه؟ قبل ما نبدأ احكي عادي
+
+189
+00:14:11,510 --> 00:14:19,970
+هتسأل لأنه هلأ اذا ب .. طالما ما في فرض مش سامي
+
+190
+00:14:19,970 --> 00:14:23,550
+الف سامي
+
+191
+00:14:23,550 --> 00:14:30,170
+اللي هم مابيشيوش على حساب خمسينع حساب أبريل، لأ
+
+192
+00:14:30,170 --> 00:14:35,050
+خليني يا بابا أقولك انتظر بسمعي شويه، هلأ السعر في
+
+193
+00:14:35,050 --> 00:14:40,350
+السوق كام؟ اربعين دولار، السعر المتوقع خمسين
+
+194
+00:14:40,350 --> 00:14:47,040
+دولار، فهم السعر الحقيقي للسهم هو خمسينبس السعر في
+
+195
+00:14:47,040 --> 00:14:50,380
+السوق الآن بينبقى 40 دولار إذا سعره أقل من الحقيقه
+
+196
+00:14:50,380 --> 00:14:53,420
+صح فإنت بوجهك نظرة إيش راح تسوي راح تضلك تشتريه
+
+197
+00:14:53,420 --> 00:14:56,900
+لإنه بيصير supply كل ما بيصير demand كل ما بيصير
+
+198
+00:14:56,900 --> 00:15:01,200
+demand إيش بيصير في السعر بيرتفع طيب بيضلوا يرتفع
+
+199
+00:15:01,200 --> 00:15:03,660
+السعر لما يساوي ال 50 دولار بيصير equilibrium
+
+200
+00:15:03,660 --> 00:15:08,240
+price بيصير سعر التوازن لما يصير سعر التوازن بيبطل
+
+201
+00:15:08,240 --> 00:15:13,500
+فيه trade طبعا وضحك هاي طب خلينا ناخد ال the
+
+202
+00:15:13,500 --> 00:15:26,970
+opposite العكسif .. if B node is 55$ يعني حسبنا
+
+203
+00:15:26,970 --> 00:15:30,590
+السعر بناءً على ال information economic و ال
+
+204
+00:15:30,590 --> 00:15:34,350
+accounting information and we find it 50$ but when
+
+205
+00:15:34,350 --> 00:15:42,020
+we go to the market it was 55$يعني under priced or
+
+206
+00:15:42,020 --> 00:15:46,380
+over priced over priced يعني أعلى من السعر الحقيقي
+
+207
+00:15:46,380 --> 00:15:51,840
+over priced so what people doing here what people
+
+208
+00:15:51,840 --> 00:15:56,220
+doing here they are selling هيبيعوا عشان السعر
+
+209
+00:15:56,220 --> 00:16:04,020
+ينزل لعند ال fifty dollar they sell this okay so
+
+210
+00:16:04,020 --> 00:16:10,000
+the fundamental analysisالموضوع الأول أو الموضوع
+
+211
+00:16:10,000 --> 00:16:15,980
+الرئيسي للتحقيق الأساسي هو تخطيط السعر الأساسي
+
+212
+00:16:15,980 --> 00:16:22,700
+ومقارنة السعر الأساسي مع السعر السوقي إذا كان
+
+213
+00:16:22,700 --> 00:16:30,880
+السعر الأساسي أكتر أو أكتر من السعر المتوقع أو
+
+214
+00:16:30,880 --> 00:16:36,740
+السعر السوقي فهو تحت السعر، لذلك نشتريإذا كانت
+
+215
+00:16:36,740 --> 00:16:40,900
+تقريبًا من قيمة السوق، فنقوم بالبيع لأنها تقريبًا
+
+216
+00:16:40,900 --> 00:16:47,040
+من قيمة السوق، حسنًا؟ فهذا هو الأمر فقط
+
+217
+00:16:47,040 --> 00:16:54,700
+لكي أفهم ما يعني تحديث الأساس، نعم،
+
+218
+00:16:54,700 --> 00:17:00,750
+يبدو هكذاthe main objective the other objectives
+
+219
+00:17:00,750 --> 00:17:03,470
+of the fundamental analysis is to try to find
+
+220
+00:17:03,470 --> 00:17:06,230
+things that are better than everyone else
+
+221
+00:17:06,230 --> 00:17:10,390
+estimates نحاول
+
+222
+00:17:10,390 --> 00:17:14,910
+نوجد طريقة حسابية
+
+223
+00:17:14,910 --> 00:17:19,010
+طريقة معادلات الناس التانية مابقدروش يستخدموها to
+
+224
+00:17:19,010 --> 00:17:23,270
+estimate the price راحظوا احنا هنا there are
+
+225
+00:17:23,270 --> 00:17:27,130
+different methods to estimate the V notesالناس
+
+226
+00:17:27,130 --> 00:17:30,090
+بتسابقوا يشوفوا إيش الطريقة الصح لنا نعمل فيها ال
+
+227
+00:17:30,090 --> 00:17:33,370
+V0 فهذه ال techniques مرات احنا بستخدم معادلات
+
+228
+00:17:33,370 --> 00:17:35,870
+رياضية is very complicated mathematical solution
+
+229
+00:17:35,870 --> 00:17:41,710
+to find out what is the V0 so the most important
+
+230
+00:17:41,710 --> 00:17:44,510
+thing is to find how we can estimate this using
+
+231
+00:17:44,510 --> 00:17:47,590
+advanced techniques advanced tools in order to
+
+232
+00:17:47,590 --> 00:17:52,070
+estimate the V0 and once we use this we have
+
+233
+00:17:52,070 --> 00:17:53,110
+better understanding
+
+234
+00:18:00,620 --> 00:18:06,660
+it's chapter لو جينا احنا حكينا قروبه قيمولها ال
+
+235
+00:18:06,660 --> 00:18:13,040
+.. قيمولها ال stock أساسي سهم لو جينا احنا بدنا
+
+236
+00:18:13,040 --> 00:18:20,620
+نقيم سهم سهم مثلا IBM what are the tools that you
+
+237
+00:18:20,620 --> 00:18:25,150
+can use ايش ال tools اللي انتوا ممكن تستخدموهاممكن
+
+238
+00:18:25,150 --> 00:18:29,790
+نستخدم مثلا ال average ممكن نستخدم ال median ممكن
+
+239
+00:18:29,790 --> 00:18:34,210
+نستخدم sigma ممكن نستخدم الفار and these tools are
+
+240
+00:18:34,210 --> 00:18:38,430
+available for everyone هذه ال tools متوفرة للكل so
+
+241
+00:18:38,430 --> 00:18:41,790
+it is not considered as advanced tool لا تعتبر
+
+242
+00:18:41,790 --> 00:18:46,010
+يعني هذه في ناس بيستخدموا تقنيات كتير متقدمة
+
+243
+00:18:46,010 --> 00:18:49,810
+رياضيا عشان يعملوا estimation لل V notes بس هذه
+
+244
+00:18:49,810 --> 00:18:53,150
+التقنيات الكل بعرفها أي واحد أي طالب في الجامعة أي
+
+245
+00:18:53,150 --> 00:18:58,320
+واحد خلص ممكن يعملهالكن some professional people
+
+246
+00:18:58,320 --> 00:19:00,920
+الناس ال professional they are using advanced tool
+
+247
+00:19:00,920 --> 00:19:08,820
+because they want to know which is stock perform
+
+248
+00:19:08,820 --> 00:19:11,900
+better than others يعني بيشوفوا السهم اللي بيعمل
+
+249
+00:19:11,900 --> 00:19:15,960
+أحسن من الآخرين لأنه لو احنا كلنا لو خمسين
+
+250
+00:19:15,960 --> 00:19:20,540
+investors في ال store بيستخدموا the same tool they
+
+251
+00:19:20,540 --> 00:19:24,360
+will end up with the same resultsمظبوط ولا لأ؟ لو
+
+252
+00:19:24,360 --> 00:19:27,060
+خمسين شخص، خمسين مستثمر موجودين في السوق يستخدموا
+
+253
+00:19:27,060 --> 00:19:32,520
+نفس ال tools، هيوصلوا لنفس النتيجة، إذا كان واحد
+
+254
+00:19:32,520 --> 00:19:37,880
+them is more professional than others، إذا كان
+
+255
+00:19:37,880 --> 00:19:41,680
+واحد أكتر professional، أكتر احتراف من الآخرين، so
+
+256
+00:19:41,680 --> 00:19:45,330
+he or she may use different toolsيعني ممكن يستخدم
+
+257
+00:19:45,330 --> 00:19:47,850
+different tools يعني خليني أعطيكوا مثلا ممكن
+
+258
+00:19:47,850 --> 00:19:52,070
+يستخدم شغلة اسمها VAR VAR مش ال variance مش هذه
+
+259
+00:19:52,070 --> 00:19:59,490
+VAR is stand for values at risk VAR
+
+260
+00:19:59,490 --> 00:20:03,150
+is stand for هذه ال VAR شايفينها؟ هيك تكتبوها
+
+261
+00:20:03,150 --> 00:20:09,790
+values at risk I'm not asking you to know what it
+
+262
+00:20:09,790 --> 00:20:14,310
+means values at risk but it is a techniqueHelping
+
+263
+00:20:14,310 --> 00:20:19,810
+the professionals to know exactly what is the
+
+264
+00:20:19,810 --> 00:20:24,610
+actual performance of the suppliesand these
+
+265
+00:20:24,610 --> 00:20:28,930
+techniques حتى لو أنا قلتلكوا this is var and ask
+
+266
+00:20:28,930 --> 00:20:31,630
+you to do it you cannot do it because it needs a
+
+267
+00:20:31,630 --> 00:20:35,490
+high knowledge تحتاج ل high knowledge معرفة عالية
+
+268
+00:20:35,490 --> 00:20:40,050
+و تستخدم تقنيات عالية كتير بال .. بال .. بال high
+
+269
+00:20:40,050 --> 00:20:45,430
+knowledge لو واحد ثاني عنده knowledge أكتر ممكن
+
+270
+00:20:45,430 --> 00:20:50,330
+يستخدم intrinsic values طريقة
+
+271
+00:20:50,330 --> 00:20:54,150
+اسمها find the intrinsic valuesطريقة أخرى عشان
+
+272
+00:20:54,150 --> 00:20:59,730
+نعرف احنا بالظبط السعر يعني اعطيكوا مثال لو احنا
+
+273
+00:20:59,730 --> 00:21:08,210
+حكنالكم بدنا نشوف القمر في الليل from your naked
+
+274
+00:21:08,210 --> 00:21:13,010
+eye بعينكم المجردة fine بتشوف و قولكم اقصدوا في
+
+275
+00:21:13,010 --> 00:21:16,550
+القرار و اوكي القمر شكله هيك هيك قولنا اوكي خدوا
+
+276
+00:21:16,550 --> 00:21:20,630
+هذا التليسكوب هذا التليسكوب بيقرب لأشياء عشرة أو
+
+277
+00:21:20,630 --> 00:21:26,530
+ستةعشرة أقل ستة فضلوا هتشوفوا أشياء أكتر if I give
+
+278
+00:21:26,530 --> 00:21:31,090
+you another one which is measured for ten power
+
+279
+00:21:31,090 --> 00:21:36,150
+twelve يعني عشر أقل ستمعاش هتشوفوا أكتر to see
+
+280
+00:21:36,150 --> 00:21:38,710
+more details which is not available to people with
+
+281
+00:21:38,710 --> 00:21:43,060
+naked eyesيعني شغلات بس لو واحد بيشوف بالعلمة
+
+282
+00:21:43,060 --> 00:21:46,700
+مجردة just .. just the moon some people say inside
+
+283
+00:21:46,700 --> 00:21:49,960
+the moon بيشوفوا داخل القمر the same .. the same
+
+284
+00:21:49,960 --> 00:21:55,760
+thing if you are applying new techniques and tools
+
+285
+00:21:55,760 --> 00:22:01,960
+فهذه الفكرة انه في ..
+
+286
+00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:07,000
+if I .. زي ما احنا شوفت ال butter
+
+287
+00:22:10,850 --> 00:22:15,310
+Some people they try to find poorly run things
+
+288
+00:22:15,310 --> 00:22:18,610
+that are not as bad as the market thinks بعض
+
+289
+00:22:18,610 --> 00:22:27,430
+الناس، الناس العاديين، بعتقدوا أن هذا السهم وضعه
+
+290
+00:22:27,430 --> 00:22:31,410
+سيء، but if you have extra analysis or in-depth
+
+291
+00:22:31,410 --> 00:22:34,210
+analysis, you see this is not as bad as the others
+
+292
+00:22:34,210 --> 00:22:40,490
+thinkيعني مش كتير سيء زي ما الناس بيعتقدوا فالناس
+
+293
+00:22:40,490 --> 00:22:42,930
+اللي بيشتغلوا بال fundamental analysis they have
+
+294
+00:22:42,930 --> 00:22:46,810
+their own tools which is unique and is not
+
+295
+00:22:46,810 --> 00:22:52,310
+available to others هي مميزة ومش هتكون متوفرة
+
+296
+00:22:52,310 --> 00:22:56,410
+للآخرين اللي يقدروا ان هم ايش يستخدموا هذه ال
+
+297
+00:22:56,410 --> 00:22:59,910
+tools فهي هتساعدهم اول شي تشوفوا مين السهم المليح
+
+298
+00:22:59,910 --> 00:23:04,470
+وكمان مين السهم اللي السوق بعتقد انه سيء بس هو مش
+
+299
+00:23:04,470 --> 00:23:06,350
+سيء okay
+
+300
+00:23:10,790 --> 00:23:14,390
+فهذه مهمة ال .. ال .. ال fundamental analysis يعني
+
+301
+00:23:14,390 --> 00:23:18,510
+احنا بتشوف مثلا سهم يعني اعطيكوا مثلا ناس بتعتقد
+
+302
+00:23:18,510 --> 00:23:24,450
+ان ياهو is one of the best stock or google ناس
+
+303
+00:23:24,450 --> 00:23:27,410
+بتفهر ياهو و جوجل but if you have in-depth
+
+304
+00:23:27,410 --> 00:23:31,670
+analysis ياهو or جوجل is the best اه not the best
+
+305
+00:23:31,670 --> 00:23:36,600
+if you have in-depth analysisif you have just
+
+306
+00:23:36,600 --> 00:23:40,820
+shallow analysis shallow يعني معناها سطحي إذا
+
+307
+00:23:40,820 --> 00:23:43,940
+عندنا shallow analysis تحليل سطحي which is
+
+308
+00:23:43,940 --> 00:23:47,660
+available for other people so you cannot come up
+
+309
+00:23:47,660 --> 00:23:50,220
+with new things but if you have in-depth analysis
+
+310
+00:23:50,220 --> 00:23:55,020
+with advanced tools so you can see what is inside
+
+311
+00:23:55,020 --> 00:23:58,540
+ممكن تعرف what is inside okay
+
+312
+00:24:03,810 --> 00:24:06,570
+فال fundamental analysis is much related to the
+
+313
+00:24:06,570 --> 00:24:08,670
+semi-strong hypothesis and I explained what it
+
+314
+00:24:08,670 --> 00:24:11,590
+means semi-strong analysis so it is fine you can
+
+315
+00:24:11,590 --> 00:24:16,070
+use it in the in the in the fundamental in the
+
+316
+00:24:16,070 --> 00:24:20,510
+semi-strong market based on this understanding
+
+317
+00:24:20,510 --> 00:24:26,250
+بناء على الكلام هذا بناء على ال technical analysis
+
+318
+00:24:26,250 --> 00:24:28,570
+و ال fundamental analysis we have two different
+
+319
+00:24:28,570 --> 00:24:33,320
+types of portfolio managersبناء على فهمنا التحليل
+
+320
+00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:36,500
+الفني technical analysis والتحليل الأساسي ال
+
+321
+00:24:36,500 --> 00:24:41,560
+fundamental analysis بيكون عندى نوعين من ال
+
+322
+00:24:41,560 --> 00:24:45,000
+investors we have active managers و في عندنا
+
+323
+00:24:45,000 --> 00:24:47,740
+passive managers عندنا ال active و عندنا ال
+
+324
+00:24:47,740 --> 00:24:51,300
+managers طبعا في عندى انا هاي الملفين كده لما انا
+
+325
+00:24:51,300 --> 00:24:56,740
+انسى او مش ملفين اكتر من ملفين هذه الملفات زى ما
+
+326
+00:24:56,740 --> 00:25:01,530
+انتوا شايفينهذه بالعربي يعني ممكن in your free
+
+327
+00:25:01,530 --> 00:25:05,530
+time and when you finish this course مش ال exam
+
+328
+00:25:05,530 --> 00:25:09,090
+this course you can get benefit from reading these
+
+329
+00:25:09,090 --> 00:25:12,230
+files يعني هي عندكم files مثلا بالتحليل الأساسي
+
+330
+00:25:12,230 --> 00:25:17,210
+شايفين اللي هو ال fundamental analysis والتحليل
+
+331
+00:25:17,210 --> 00:25:19,330
+الفني اللي هو technical analysis يعني لو إحنا
+
+332
+00:25:19,330 --> 00:25:26,820
+إجينا التحليل الأساسي هتلاقي كله إيشعبارة عن تحليل
+
+333
+00:25:26,820 --> 00:25:33,800
+اقتصادي و تحليل مالي يعني خليني انا أورجي فيا فهذا
+
+334
+00:25:33,800 --> 00:25:39,900
+يعني بال .. بال free time تبعكم اتحاولوا يعني بعد
+
+335
+00:25:39,900 --> 00:25:43,200
+اللي ما تنهوا الانتحارات مش الانتحارات و الفصل و
+
+336
+00:25:43,200 --> 00:25:44,280
+كذا اه
+
+337
+00:25:47,610 --> 00:25:51,630
+يعني شوفوا التحليل الأساسي كله يعني بيستخدموا
+
+338
+00:25:51,630 --> 00:25:55,090
+معادلات يعني مثلا هان مكرر الأرباح اللي هو ال P-E
+
+339
+00:25:55,090 --> 00:25:58,790
+ratio ال P-E ratio أنا أعطيتكوا ال P-E ratio قبل
+
+340
+00:25:58,790 --> 00:26:05,010
+تلت .. يعني chapter two و chapter three فاكرين؟ لأ
+
+341
+00:26:05,010 --> 00:26:07,510
+تفرجوا ال P-E ratio جاي في سؤال انت هان فيه على
+
+342
+00:26:07,510 --> 00:26:13,290
+فكرةال P-E ratio ال P-E ratio أخذناها لما كنا
+
+343
+00:26:13,290 --> 00:26:18,370
+نحاول نقرأ ال stocks و ال bonds أكيد مش تعرف هذه
+
+344
+00:26:18,370 --> 00:26:23,510
+correct the answers multiple choice و الصح و غلط و
+
+345
+00:26:23,510 --> 00:26:26,590
+أشياء مثلها التحليل المالي مثلا شوفوا التحليل
+
+346
+00:26:26,590 --> 00:26:30,310
+المالي مهم بال .. بال fundamental analysis يعني
+
+347
+00:26:30,310 --> 00:26:33,850
+هذا ان شاء الله في ال free time you can read this
+
+348
+00:26:33,850 --> 00:26:37,410
+خليني
+
+349
+00:26:37,410 --> 00:26:41,310
+بس أخلص الصفحة هذهactive or passive management
+
+350
+00:26:41,310 --> 00:26:47,390
+احنا حكينا المرة الفاتة في chapter two the active
+
+351
+00:26:47,390 --> 00:26:54,650
+management think that the market is not efficient
+
+352
+00:26:56,200 --> 00:26:59,240
+and there is a lot of mispricing so they depend on
+
+353
+00:26:59,240 --> 00:27:02,960
+the mispricing to correct the inefficiency يعني هم
+
+354
+00:27:02,960 --> 00:27:05,360
+دورهم بيخلوا ال market efficient هو أصلا ال market
+
+355
+00:27:05,360 --> 00:27:10,160
+مش efficient لكن the .. the contribution of the
+
+356
+00:27:10,160 --> 00:27:12,740
+active managements or the active managers make the
+
+357
+00:27:12,740 --> 00:27:16,340
+market efficient يعني تدخلهم هو بيخلي لأنه مش
+
+358
+00:27:16,340 --> 00:27:21,420
+ذاكير لما احنا حكينا the prices deviate from their
+
+359
+00:27:21,420 --> 00:27:26,410
+fundamentalبتقول احنا أخدنا ال risk and return
+
+360
+00:27:26,410 --> 00:27:30,970
+وحكينا the prices should be on the security market
+
+361
+00:27:30,970 --> 00:27:35,350
+line sometimes there is mispricing so the role of
+
+362
+00:27:35,350 --> 00:27:38,330
+active management is to correct this and making
+
+363
+00:27:38,330 --> 00:27:40,870
+the price or making the stocks to be on the line
+
+364
+00:27:40,870 --> 00:27:45,850
+okay هذا بيسموهم ال active managementthis is an
+
+365
+00:27:45,850 --> 00:27:49,750
+expensive strategy هذي expensive strategy بتكلفهم
+
+366
+00:27:49,750 --> 00:27:52,830
+كتير why? because they .. they want to collect a
+
+367
+00:27:52,830 --> 00:27:57,330
+fundamental information to know which is the
+
+368
+00:27:57,330 --> 00:28:00,910
+inefficient prices or which stock is inefficient
+
+369
+00:28:00,910 --> 00:28:06,470
+or which stock is mispriced و أي سهم هو عليه
+
+370
+00:28:06,470 --> 00:28:08,670
+mispriced يعني مش مسعر بطريقة صحية
+
+371
+00:28:11,650 --> 00:28:15,130
+because they spend a lot of money on collecting
+
+372
+00:28:15,130 --> 00:28:18,170
+fundamental and private information so it is not
+
+373
+00:28:18,170 --> 00:28:21,830
+suitable for the small investors يعني مش كويسة على
+
+374
+00:28:21,830 --> 00:28:24,150
+small investors يعني الواحد مستخدم اللي عنده one
+
+375
+00:28:24,150 --> 00:28:27,100
+hundred dollarعنده ميت دولار أو ألف دولار يروح
+
+376
+00:28:27,100 --> 00:28:30,040
+يجمع معلومات و .. and it cost for him or for her
+
+377
+00:28:30,040 --> 00:28:34,200
+so it is not suitable for them مش كتير مناسبة لهم
+
+378
+00:28:34,200 --> 00:28:37,620
+هذه مناسبة لمين is suitable only for large
+
+379
+00:28:37,620 --> 00:28:40,800
+portfolios يعني لو واحد عنده محفظة خمس مليون و لا
+
+380
+00:28:40,800 --> 00:28:45,800
+ميت مليون دولار and invest one percent يعني لو صرف
+
+381
+00:28:45,800 --> 00:28:49,800
+ألف دولار و لا ميت ألف دولار it .. it deserve
+
+382
+00:28:49,800 --> 00:28:53,870
+تستحق لإيجمع معلومات و يعمل تحليلThe passive
+
+383
+00:28:53,870 --> 00:28:58,130
+managers think the market is efficient يعني
+
+384
+00:28:58,130 --> 00:29:00,790
+بيعتقلوا أن ال market is efficient all of the
+
+385
+00:29:00,790 --> 00:29:05,610
+stock is located on the security market line كل ال
+
+386
+00:29:05,610 --> 00:29:08,390
+stocks بتقع على خط السوق and the market is
+
+387
+00:29:08,390 --> 00:29:13,510
+efficient and because of this no attempt to
+
+388
+00:29:13,510 --> 00:29:17,550
+outsmart the market يعني ما تكونوش شاطرين كتيركأنه
+
+389
+00:29:17,550 --> 00:29:20,590
+ال .. ال .. ال .. ال people believe on the passive
+
+390
+00:29:20,590 --> 00:29:22,710
+management بيعتقدوا أنه ال market is efficient
+
+391
+00:29:22,710 --> 00:29:25,950
+they just only to invest on the stocks that
+
+392
+00:29:25,950 --> 00:29:28,770
+located in the .. in the market on the security
+
+393
+00:29:28,770 --> 00:29:31,890
+market line فحاولوا يوجدوا تنويعة موجودة على خط
+
+394
+00:29:31,890 --> 00:29:37,550
+السوق don't be outsmart ما تكونش تفهم كتير because
+
+395
+00:29:37,550 --> 00:29:42,690
+the market outsmart others يعني السوق أفهم و أشطر
+
+396
+00:29:42,690 --> 00:29:48,040
+من الناس كلها okaySo they accept the efficient
+
+397
+00:29:48,040 --> 00:29:53,020
+market hypothesis AMH, they invest in the index
+
+398
+00:29:53,020 --> 00:29:57,240
+funds and I explain this because the index funds
+
+399
+00:29:57,240 --> 00:30:00,620
+اللي هو المؤشرات السوق because it includes only
+
+400
+00:30:00,620 --> 00:30:05,160
+the best stocks يعني المؤشرات اللي أسهم زي مؤشر
+
+401
+00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:09,620
+Dow Jones وNasdaq وNikkei ومؤشر New York Stock
+
+402
+00:30:09,620 --> 00:30:15,080
+Exchange ومؤشر FTSE 100 وهذا شلحته أظن بشتر two أو
+
+403
+00:30:15,080 --> 00:30:19,850
+threeand one of the characteristics is very low
+
+404
+00:30:19,850 --> 00:30:23,070
+cost you don't need to collect information بس
+
+405
+00:30:23,070 --> 00:30:26,970
+أنتوا خدوا الأسهم لإنه دايما في كل يوم افتحوا
+
+406
+00:30:26,970 --> 00:30:30,370
+الناشرة الاقتصادية او اشي فبحكوكوا the best one
+
+407
+00:30:30,370 --> 00:30:34,990
+hundred companies أفضل مئة شركة خلاص so you don't
+
+408
+00:30:34,990 --> 00:30:38,950
+need to look for who is the best because the best
+
+409
+00:30:38,950 --> 00:30:42,610
+is already known so just channel your fun to the
+
+410
+00:30:42,610 --> 00:30:47,680
+best okaySo this is the active and passive
+
+411
+00:30:47,680 --> 00:30:48,040
+management
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/SKWjWg0aL4w.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/SKWjWg0aL4w.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..abfa2e8e93d54670276d41f1af86e32aab5162bb
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/SKWjWg0aL4w.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1779 @@
+1
+00:00:21,910 --> 00:00:26,790
+بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم احنا هنبدأ بالـ .. بال asset
+
+2
+00:00:26,790 --> 00:00:30,770
+classes بالقائمة ثالثة أنا ما أعتقد بال asset
+
+3
+00:00:30,770 --> 00:00:35,310
+classes والمرة الفاترة كنا نحكي في ال bankers
+
+4
+00:00:35,310 --> 00:00:40,430
+acceptance okay و .. و ال bankers acceptance هي
+
+5
+00:00:40,430 --> 00:00:44,110
+كلها بالـ money markets حكينا ال bankers acceptance
+
+6
+00:00:44,110 --> 00:00:49,150
+و ال commercial papers حكينا ال treasury bills و
+
+7
+00:00:49,150 --> 00:00:56,680
+.. و إيش كمان؟ certificate of deposits شهادات
+
+8
+00:00:56,680 --> 00:01:00,600
+إيداع okay في حد مش فاهم إيش من هدول الأربعة اللي 
+
+9
+00:01:00,600 --> 00:01:06,020
+حاكيناهم okay bankers acceptance واضحة طيب هلأ
+
+10
+00:01:06,020 --> 00:01:09,300
+نحكي بالـ euro dollars so what it means euro
+
+11
+00:01:09,300 --> 00:01:15,020
+dollars euro dollars is any dollar traded outside
+
+12
+00:01:15,020 --> 00:01:18,460
+the united states is considered as a euro dollar
+
+13
+00:01:19,110 --> 00:01:21,610
+يعني أي دولار يتم تداوله خارج الولايات المتحدة
+
+14
+00:01:21,610 --> 00:01:27,930
+الأمريكية هو يعتبر euro dollar okay in the same
+
+15
+00:01:27,930 --> 00:01:34,030
+vein في نفس السياق any yen for instance traded
+
+16
+00:01:34,030 --> 00:01:39,930
+outside Japan is considered as euro yen يعني حتى
+
+17
+00:01:39,930 --> 00:01:41,890
+الـ yen اللي يتم تداوله الـ yen الياباني العملة
+
+18
+00:01:41,890 --> 00:01:45,770
+اليابانية أي yen ياباني يتم تداوله خارج اليابان
+
+19
+00:01:45,770 --> 00:01:52,930
+بنسميه euro yen So why investors prefer to trade in
+
+20
+00:01:52,930 --> 00:01:58,330
+dollar of the United States لما نحكي of .. of ..
+
+21
+00:01:58,330 --> 00:02:02,470
+I'm using of not of .. of .. of the United States
+
+22
+00:02:02,470 --> 00:02:05,230
+it means outside the United States So why
+
+23
+00:02:05,230 --> 00:02:08,830
+investors prefer to use or to trade in dollar of
+
+24
+00:02:08,830 --> 00:02:12,370
+the United States So they have two options to
+
+25
+00:02:12,370 --> 00:02:14,870
+trade or to invest the dollar inside the United
+
+26
+00:02:14,870 --> 00:02:19,090
+States or outside the United States because of the
+
+27
+00:02:19,090 --> 00:02:23,950
+united states giving them higher return يعني خارج
+
+28
+00:02:23,950 --> 00:02:26,010
+الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية لما هم بيستثمروا في
+
+29
+00:02:26,010 --> 00:02:29,510
+الدولار خارج الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية بيعطيهم
+
+30
+00:02:29,510 --> 00:02:33,330
+عائد أعلى so this is why investors prefer to
+
+31
+00:02:33,330 --> 00:02:36,550
+invest in dollar of the united states rather to
+
+32
+00:02:36,550 --> 00:02:41,650
+invest it inside the united states إذن أي عملة يتم
+
+33
+00:02:41,650 --> 00:02:48,660
+تداولها خارج الدولة بتاعتها بنسميها euro something
+
+34
+00:02:48,660 --> 00:02:54,760
+يعني مثلا احنا هأعطيلكم مثال الـ ين الـ ين .. الـ ين هي
+
+35
+00:02:54,760 --> 00:02:58,100
+الرمزة الـ ين الـ ين الياباني okay الـ ين الياباني لما
+
+36
+00:02:58,100 --> 00:03:01,540
+أنا بداول الـ ين الياباني خارج اليابان فبنسميه إيش؟
+
+37
+00:03:01,540 --> 00:03:04,820
+euro yen okay
+
+38
+00:03:06,570 --> 00:03:10,310
+ليش احنا استخدمنا كلمة euro ما استخدمناش مثلا كلمة
+
+39
+00:03:10,310 --> 00:03:13,930
+أخرى؟ because the most of trade is coming from
+
+40
+00:03:13,930 --> 00:03:17,770
+European countries يعني أغلب الـ .. الـ .. الاتجارات
+
+41
+00:03:17,770 --> 00:03:21,870
+و الاستثمارات بتتم في الولايات .. في أوروبا طبعا
+
+42
+00:03:21,870 --> 00:03:26,530
+في financial hub في العالم الـ financial hub في
+
+43
+00:03:26,530 --> 00:03:29,750
+العالم يعني مناطق الاستثمار في العالم في عندنا
+
+44
+00:03:29,750 --> 00:03:35,490
+Frankfurt عارفين Frankfurt؟ وين Frankfurt؟ okay هذا
+
+45
+00:03:35,490 --> 00:03:40,490
+.. هذا بيعتبر تاني hub في العالم و في عندنا كمان
+
+46
+00:03:40,490 --> 00:03:44,090
+الـ wall street, وين الـ wall street؟ United States
+
+47
+00:03:44,090 --> 00:03:47,810
+و في عندنا كمان كانت البحرين بس اللحظة هاي صارت
+
+48
+00:03:47,810 --> 00:03:51,670
+دبي بيعتبر ثالث رابع hub financial hub في العالم
+
+49
+00:03:51,670 --> 00:03:57,400
+okay و عندنا كمان اللي هو Tokyo هذه كمان تدخل علينا
+
+50
+00:03:57,400 --> 00:04:00,520
+أربع financial hub في الـ .. في الـ international أو
+
+51
+00:04:00,520 --> 00:04:05,140
+في الـ .. في العالم كله فهدول الـ financial hubs are
+
+52
+00:04:05,140 --> 00:04:09,820
+using currencies hard currencies to invest in
+
+53
+00:04:09,820 --> 00:04:13,880
+overall the world بيستخدموا عملات صعبة يعني for
+
+54
+00:04:13,880 --> 00:04:17,740
+instance على سبيل المثال في ألمانيا مثلا بيستخدموا
+
+55
+00:04:17,740 --> 00:04:22,940
+عظم العملات الصعبة مثل الـ يندي الياباني okay يعتبر
+
+56
+00:04:22,940 --> 00:04:28,470
+عملة صعبة مثل الـ euro okay الـ .. يعتبر عاملة صعبة
+
+57
+00:04:28,470 --> 00:04:33,170
+الدولار أكيد عاملة صعبة الـ bound كمان يعتبر عاملة
+
+58
+00:04:33,170 --> 00:04:36,710
+صعبة طب لو احنا حكينا الـ .. الـ bound اللي هو
+
+59
+00:04:36,710 --> 00:04:41,470
+هنسميه euro bound اذا احنا بنستخدم الـ bound of the
+
+60
+00:04:41,470 --> 00:04:46,650
+.. of the UK لأن مين اللي بصدر الـ bound؟ الـ bound
+
+61
+00:04:46,650 --> 00:04:49,720
+يعني الإجناء السرليني okay the UK اللي هو the
+
+62
+00:04:49,720 --> 00:04:54,040
+British .. the .. the UK united kingdom so the
+
+63
+00:04:54,040 --> 00:04:58,980
+united kingdom traded in the .. in the pound so
+
+64
+00:04:58,980 --> 00:05:02,460
+any pound traded of the UK is considered as euro
+
+65
+00:05:02,460 --> 00:05:08,120
+pound اللي هو السترليني بيتم تعامل خارج الـ ..
+
+66
+00:05:08,120 --> 00:05:13,540
+الدولة تبعتهم طبعا احنا حكينا ليش؟ إيش السبب؟ عدوا
+
+67
+00:05:13,540 --> 00:05:14,000
+ليه ليش؟
+
+68
+00:05:18,090 --> 00:05:21,850
+اه الاستثمار بيكون خارج الدولة أعلى العائد من داخل
+
+69
+00:05:21,850 --> 00:05:27,350
+الدولة يعني مثلا لو أنا أستثمر في الدولار في داخل
+
+70
+00:05:27,350 --> 00:05:30,030
+الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية في united states ممكن
+
+71
+00:05:30,030 --> 00:05:34,770
+يعطيني مثلا three percent لكن أستثمر الدولار of
+
+72
+00:05:34,770 --> 00:05:37,470
+the united states of the united states ممكن يعطيني
+
+73
+00:05:37,470 --> 00:05:41,630
+four percent okay high return and in the same vein
+
+74
+00:05:41,630 --> 00:05:44,890
+high risk زي ما بنحكي احنا في عندنا high return
+
+75
+00:05:44,890 --> 00:05:49,360
+كمان في عندنا high risk okay؟ هذا بالنسبة لليورو
+
+76
+00:05:49,360 --> 00:05:58,560
+دولار طبعا يتم إصدار أدوات مالية بهذه العملات خارج
+
+77
+00:05:58,560 --> 00:06:01,200
+الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية يعني ممكن أعطيكوا مثال
+
+78
+00:06:01,200 --> 00:06:04,740
+ممكن البنك الـ .. البنك المركزي الإنجليزي مثلا يروح
+
+79
+00:06:04,740 --> 00:06:10,700
+يصدر سندات بالـ .. بالسترليني عفوا بالدولار طبعا هو
+
+80
+00:06:10,700 --> 00:06:14,160
+بنك إنجليزي فالمفروض يصدر سندات بالإيش؟ بالسترليني
+
+81
+00:06:14,160 --> 00:06:18,220
+فبروح يصدرها بالإيش؟ بالدولار فإيش بنسميه في الحالة
+
+82
+00:06:18,220 --> 00:06:24,240
+هذا؟ بنسميها إيش؟ euro bond أو dollar bond سندات
+
+83
+00:06:24,240 --> 00:06:29,920
+بالدولار وهذه طبعا برضه بتندرج في الـ euro dollar
+
+84
+00:06:29,920 --> 00:06:33,640
+bonds euro dollar bonds يعني إما إحنا الـ bonds
+
+85
+00:06:33,640 --> 00:06:36,800
+نصدره
+
+86
+00:06:36,800 --> 00:06:41,380
+بالدولار outside or of the united states of the
+
+87
+00:06:41,380 --> 00:06:45,380
+united states إيش بنسميه؟ بسميه euro dollar
+
+88
+00:06:47,880 --> 00:06:53,560
+bond هلأ إذا كان خارج الـ united states نسميه euro
+
+89
+00:06:53,560 --> 00:06:58,540
+dollar bond طب لو كان .. يعني مثلا احنا أصدرنا الـ
+
+90
+00:06:58,540 --> 00:07:02,420
+.. عادة مين بيصدر السندات بالدولار؟ الـ united
+
+91
+00:07:02,420 --> 00:07:06,940
+states طب لو احنا أصدرنا سندات أمريكية خارج
+
+92
+00:07:06,940 --> 00:07:09,160
+الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية يعني البنك المركزي
+
+93
+00:07:09,160 --> 00:07:12,960
+الإنجليزي راح يصدر سندات بالدولار
+
+94
+00:07:14,290 --> 00:07:18,790
+فبنسمي السندات هذه نسميها euro dollar bond نعطي
+
+95
+00:07:18,790 --> 00:07:23,530
+مثال تاني لو حكينا مثلا الـ .. الـ .. الـ ASB عارفين
+
+96
+00:07:23,530 --> 00:07:27,270
+ASB؟ ضروري هدول المصطلحات تكون عندكم معرفة فيها
+
+97
+00:07:27,270 --> 00:07:30,270
+لأنه بتتكرر كتير بالأخبار في الجزيرة بالـ CNBC
+
+98
+00:07:30,270 --> 00:07:34,350
+بيحكوش مثلا the central bank of Europe لأنه it
+
+99
+00:07:34,350 --> 00:07:36,430
+takes time لما بيحكوها الـ central bank of Europe
+
+100
+00:07:36,430 --> 00:07:41,390
+أخدت ثانية من وقت المزيد عشان يحكيها فبحكي ASB الـ
+
+101
+00:07:41,390 --> 00:07:44,840
+ASB اللي هي بيسميها الـ European Central Bank البنك
+
+102
+00:07:44,840 --> 00:07:47,680
+المركزي الأوروبي فهلأ البنك المركزي الأوروبي راح
+
+103
+00:07:47,680 --> 00:07:54,320
+يصدر bonds مثلا بالـ .. مثلا بالـ yen فشو روح نسميها
+
+104
+00:07:54,320 --> 00:08:02,000
+في الحالة هذه؟ روح نسميها euro يورو يند bond هي
+
+105
+00:08:02,000 --> 00:08:06,220
+التسمية بتاعتها تصير فبصير أنه البنك المركزي روح
+
+106
+00:08:06,220 --> 00:08:13,780
+يصدر عملة يصدر سندات بعملة أخرى ولكن هذا نادر غالبا
+
+107
+00:08:13,780 --> 00:08:18,760
+.. غالبا الدول بتصدر بالدولار، غالبا الدولار هو
+
+108
+00:08:18,760 --> 00:08:25,060
+متعرف عليه و بستاني بيسموه euro dollar bonds okay
+
+109
+00:08:25,060 --> 00:08:31,040
+any question؟ أي سؤال على الـ euro dollar؟ مضحك
+
+110
+00:08:31,040 --> 00:08:38,960
+اظنها الـ euro dollar، في حد مش واضح عنده؟ rebounds
+
+111
+00:08:38,960 --> 00:08:43,730
+and reverses rebours and reverses short term loan
+
+112
+00:08:43,730 --> 00:08:47,710
+backed by government securities في حد تعرف what it
+
+113
+00:08:47,710 --> 00:08:54,970
+means? اتفاقية إعادة الشرائع عارفين كيف هذا بتتم؟
+
+114
+00:08:54,970 --> 00:08:58,650
+اللي
+
+115
+00:08:58,650 --> 00:09:02,210
+هو rebours اللي هو repurchase agreement هذه
+
+116
+00:09:02,210 --> 00:09:08,150
+اختصارها rebours اختصارها repurchase agreement
+
+117
+00:09:13,220 --> 00:09:19,900
+purchase agreements طيب
+
+118
+00:09:19,900 --> 00:09:23,660
+how
+
+119
+00:09:23,660 --> 00:09:27,360
+we use repurchase agreements؟ كيف احنا بنستخدم الـ
+
+120
+00:09:27,360 --> 00:09:31,320
+repurchase agreements؟ and why we use this؟ و ليش
+
+121
+00:09:31,320 --> 00:09:40,580
+احنا بنستخدمها؟ في حد عنده فكرة؟ طيب
+
+122
+00:09:41,760 --> 00:09:45,240
+نعطي مثال بسيط و بعدين نطبقها how the investors
+
+123
+00:09:45,240 --> 00:09:50,000
+use it بس عشان تفهم المثال أنا هي معايا موبايل
+
+124
+00:09:50,000 --> 00:09:54,620
+okay بدي
+
+125
+00:09:54,620 --> 00:09:58,700
+فلوس بس ليوم واحد I don't have any money ماعنديش
+
+126
+00:09:58,700 --> 00:10:03,180
+أي فلوس بس معايا الموبايل تبعي فإيش الـ option مش
+
+127
+00:10:03,180 --> 00:10:09,480
+أرهنه أبيعه أبيعه بعدين أشتريه okay هلأ الموبايل
+
+128
+00:10:12,740 --> 00:10:17,920
+الموبايل نفترض ثمنه مية دولار ثمنه كام؟ مية
+
+129
+00:10:17,920 --> 00:10:20,920
+دولار طبعًا أنا ما بدي أدفع يعني أنا معايا الموبايل
+
+130
+00:10:20,920 --> 00:10:26,440
+تبعي فبروح بحكي مين يشتري مني الموبايل فبيحكي
+
+131
+00:10:26,440 --> 00:10:32,640
+واحد كأنه بشتري منك فبعت الموبايل فلما بعت
+
+132
+00:10:32,640 --> 00:10:37,540
+الموبايل صار عندي مية دولار في جيبتي plus and I 
+
+133
+00:10:37,540 --> 00:10:41,500
+don't have the mobile ركزوا في المثال I don't have 
+
+134
+00:10:41,500 --> 00:10:49,380
+the mobile طيب الـ
+
+135
+00:10:49,380 --> 00:10:53,780
+100 دولار أنا لإن معيش الـ 100 دولار هذه بس بكرا في
+
+136
+00:10:53,780 --> 00:10:57,400
+صاحبي بده ي... أنا بده منه فلوس داينة وحكي لي
+
+137
+00:10:57,400 --> 00:11:01,640
+بكرا بجيبلك إياهم فثاني يوم جاب لي الـ 100 دولار ثاني
+
+138
+00:11:01,640 --> 00:11:07,600
+يوم أيش جاب لي الـ 100 دولار فهدول الـ 100 دولار صار
+
+139
+00:11:07,600 --> 00:11:12,420
+عندي 100 دولار جابها لي صديقي فانا بدأت أسد مين؟ بدأت
+
+140
+00:11:12,420 --> 00:11:18,220
+أسد عملية شراء الموبايل عاد شراء الموبايل روحت على
+
+141
+00:11:18,220 --> 00:11:20,980
+السوق بدأت أشتري الموبايل زي الموبايل اللي أنا
+
+142
+00:11:20,980 --> 00:11:25,200
+معايا إيش قالوا لي لأ؟ هذا بمية وعشرين دولار،
+
+143
+00:11:25,200 --> 00:11:29,640
+مظبوط؟ مش هذا اللي بيصير معكم؟ أنا خسرت كام في
+
+144
+00:11:29,640 --> 00:11:34,660
+الحالة هذه؟ عشرين دولار في في السوق في ال... بالـ
+
+145
+00:11:34,660 --> 00:11:39,690
+financial markets لأنه أنا لما روحت أشتري الموبايل بـ
+
+146
+00:11:39,690 --> 00:11:43,330
+100 ولما روحت أعمل إعادة شرائه لإن أنا بدي... بدي
+
+147
+00:11:43,330 --> 00:11:46,730
+الموبايل دفعت 120 فانا خسرت 20 دولار في الحالة هذه
+
+148
+00:11:46,730 --> 00:11:51,830
+أه في في الأسواق المالية بيعملوا لي بيعملوا لي 
+
+149
+00:11:51,830 --> 00:11:57,790
+services خدمات بيحكوا لي okay if you need 100$ this
+
+150
+00:11:57,790 --> 00:12:02,630
+is fine بياخدوا الموبايل وفي نفس اللحظة اللي أنا
+
+151
+00:12:02,630 --> 00:12:06,350
+ببيع فيها الموبايل بقى اتفق على إعادة شراء في نفس
+
+152
+00:12:06,350 --> 00:12:12,180
+اللحظة okay يعني بتفق أنه أنا بايعه بمية وبحكي طب
+
+153
+00:12:12,180 --> 00:12:15,820
+أنا لبكرا بدأت أشتري كام أدفع... كام بدأت أدفع
+
+154
+00:12:15,820 --> 00:12:20,980
+فبيعطوني... بيعطوني بيحكوا لي okay مية وواحد دولار
+
+155
+00:12:20,980 --> 00:12:26,700
+طبعًا شراء
+
+156
+00:12:26,700 --> 00:12:34,800
+مئة دولار تابعوا معايا شراء عفوا بدينا ببيع... بيع
+
+157
+00:12:34,800 --> 00:12:40,630
+مئة دولار بيعت الموبايل وفي نفس اللحظة بدي إيش؟
+
+158
+00:12:40,630 --> 00:12:51,170
+أشتري شراء بكم؟ 101 دولار نفس
+
+159
+00:12:51,170 --> 00:12:55,710
+اللحظة نفس الشيء نفس اللي سويناها بس بروح ببيع الـ
+
+160
+00:12:55,710 --> 00:12:58,910
+موبايل مع نفس الشخص بقول له أنا بدي أشتري بكرا منك
+
+161
+00:12:58,910 --> 00:13:02,850
+بدي أشتري يعني أنا بيعطي اللحظة هذه وفي نفس اللحظة
+
+162
+00:13:02,850 --> 00:13:06,930
+بدي أشتري بكرا منه بس الاتفاق بيكون في إيش؟ في نفس
+
+163
+00:13:06,930 --> 00:13:14,330
+الوقت وبالتالي في نفس الوقت بيحكي له okay أنا بشتري
+
+164
+00:13:14,330 --> 00:13:22,530
+منك بـ 100 دولار وبكرا ببيعك إياه بـ 101 okay طيب في
+
+165
+00:13:22,530 --> 00:13:26,630
+صفة أنه أنا كام خسرت في اللحظة دولار واحد لو أنا
+
+166
+00:13:26,630 --> 00:13:30,770
+ما دخلتش بال... بال... الـ repos بخسر عشرين دولار
+
+167
+00:13:30,770 --> 00:13:38,320
+طيب لسه بنكمل هان لما الدولار 100 دولار لما أنا بقت
+
+168
+00:13:38,320 --> 00:13:43,140
+ال... ال... الموبايل تمام حصلت على cash مية دولار
+
+169
+00:13:43,140 --> 00:13:46,760
+cash بكرا
+
+170
+00:13:46,760 --> 00:13:55,500
+هرجع الـ cash، مظبوط؟ طيب طبعًا هرجع الـ cash وزيادة
+
+171
+00:13:55,500 --> 00:14:00,070
+عليهم كام؟ دولار واحد هينخفض من الرصيد تبعي دولار
+
+172
+00:14:00,070 --> 00:14:03,310
+واحد بيجي لي الرجال بيحكي له ليش هذه دوشة هذه مية ومية
+
+173
+00:14:03,310 --> 00:14:06,730
+لأ خلينا احنا بدل ما ندفع على مية دولار ومية
+
+174
+00:14:06,730 --> 00:14:11,490
+وواحد لأ نحسب شغلة اسمه repo rate نحسب إيش؟ repo
+
+175
+00:14:11,490 --> 00:14:15,970
+rate يعني نسبة بدون ما أحكي لك هذا بمية وهذا
+
+176
+00:14:15,970 --> 00:14:19,970
+بميتين لأ أنا بعطيك الـ cash اللي أنت بدك إياها okay وبـ
+
+177
+00:14:19,970 --> 00:14:24,850
+بحسب لك عليها repo rate هذا الرقم إيش بيسموه؟ بيسموه
+
+178
+00:14:24,850 --> 00:14:30,350
+repo rate طبعًا هو بدل ما هو ناقص واحد بيحولونا نسبة
+
+179
+00:14:30,350 --> 00:14:35,830
+مقوية بيحولونا نسبة مقوية 1% طبعًا 1%
+
+180
+00:14:35,830 --> 00:14:40,530
+من قيمة إيش؟ من قيمة الموبايل يعني مثلًا
+
+181
+00:14:40,530 --> 00:14:44,230
+1% لو كان سعر الموبايل مية دولار نضرب
+
+182
+00:14:44,230 --> 00:14:48,870
+1% ضرب مية ويساوي إيش؟ واحد لو كان قيمة
+
+183
+00:14:48,870 --> 00:14:54,240
+الموبايل ميتين دولار نضرب 1% بتساوي
+
+184
+00:14:54,240 --> 00:14:58,620
+اتنين واحدة كذا طيب هذا احنا بالمثال ال... ال...
+
+185
+00:14:58,620 --> 00:15:02,280
+ال... عشان تفهموا الأمور كيف تمشي طيب the... the
+
+186
+00:15:02,280 --> 00:15:06,960
+banks... هاه؟ لأ
+
+187
+00:15:06,960 --> 00:15:10,940
+احنا في نفس اللحظة هيتم الاتفاق أه يعني لأ نفس
+
+188
+00:15:10,940 --> 00:15:13,900
+اللحظة أنا أبيع الموبايل وفي نفس اللحظة أشتريه
+
+189
+00:15:13,900 --> 00:15:17,980
+بكرا طبعًا ليش احنا السبب إن احنا استخدمنا الطريقة
+
+190
+00:15:17,980 --> 00:15:21,380
+هذه لإن أنا استخدمت الموبايل كم يوم أنا استخدمت
+
+191
+00:15:21,380 --> 00:15:25,940
+الطريقة هذه كم يوم over the night ايه سميها over
+
+192
+00:15:25,940 --> 00:15:29,680
+the night يعني بس مرور الليل طب نعطي مثال how the
+
+193
+00:15:29,680 --> 00:15:33,360
+investors use this كيف المستثمرين بيستخدموا الكلام
+
+194
+00:15:33,360 --> 00:15:37,840
+هذا نعطيكم مثال ومثال هذا تستخدمه البنوك واقعي
+
+195
+00:15:37,840 --> 00:15:48,040
+okay طيب
+
+196
+00:15:48,040 --> 00:15:54,090
+لو عندنا مثال الـ bank العربي عارفين الـ Arab Bank
+
+197
+00:15:54,090 --> 00:16:02,370
+أه؟ the Arab Bank the Arab Bank موجود عنده cash طلعوا
+
+198
+00:16:02,370 --> 00:16:10,010
+الـ asset عشرة مليون دولار asset بالـ cash tomorrow
+
+199
+00:16:10,010 --> 00:16:20,430
+اللي هو بكرا محتاجين يدفعوا رواتب للموظفين رواتب
+
+200
+00:16:20,430 --> 00:16:25,450
+الموظفين بتدفع بالشيكل ولا بالدولار؟ بالشيكل okay إذا
+
+201
+00:16:25,450 --> 00:16:30,630
+ال... البنك العربي شو بحتاج عنده عشرة مليون دولار
+
+202
+00:16:30,630 --> 00:16:37,110
+بدياهم يحولوهم لشيكل okay إذا tomorrow اتبعوا معايا
+
+203
+00:16:37,110 --> 00:16:44,490
+بالمثال tomorrow the Arab bank needs okay شيكل
+
+204
+00:16:44,490 --> 00:16:51,230
+بحتاج شيكل عشان يعطي الموظفين راتبهم طب عنده two
+
+205
+00:16:51,230 --> 00:16:54,390
+options زي ما حكينا فكرة الموبايل يروح يبيع الـ
+
+206
+00:16:54,390 --> 00:16:59,030
+موبايل okay ويستنى بينما يعطي الموظفين راتبهم
+
+207
+00:16:59,030 --> 00:17:02,090
+بعدين بيجي له فلوس وبروح بشتري الدولارات كام مرة
+
+208
+00:17:02,090 --> 00:17:06,750
+وهذه حكينا فيها إيش فيها مخاطر هيدفع فلوس كثير
+
+209
+00:17:06,750 --> 00:17:10,750
+خلينا نمشي نشوف كيف الـ two options مشوا مع بعض
+
+210
+00:17:10,750 --> 00:17:17,670
+ناخد الـ option one option one option one بلي يحول
+
+211
+00:17:17,670 --> 00:17:23,630
+العشرة مليون لكم لشيكل رأسه يقول العشرة مليون ضرب
+
+212
+00:17:23,630 --> 00:17:31,610
+3.71 أو 3.70 حكى
+
+213
+00:17:31,610 --> 00:17:36,110
+okay فراح لما حولهم كام؟ 3.70 ضرب
+
+214
+00:17:36,110 --> 00:17:38,910
+عشرة مليون بيطلع سبعة وثلاثين مليون
+
+215
+00:17:41,740 --> 00:17:44,460
+صار عنده في الرصيد تبعه بدل ما هو عنده عشرة شيكل
+
+216
+00:17:44,460 --> 00:17:48,020
+صار عنده سبعة وثلاثين مليون دولار صار عنده
+
+217
+00:17:48,020 --> 00:17:54,780
+سبعة وثلاثين مليون شيكل بيعت
+
+218
+00:17:54,780 --> 00:17:58,380
+الموظفين راتبهم طيب احنا مازلنا بـ option one
+
+219
+00:17:58,380 --> 00:18:04,010
+ما دخلش الـ repo purchase agreement طبعًا مركزين معايا
+
+220
+00:18:04,010 --> 00:18:09,550
+طيب هلأ صار عنده فلوس البنك العربي يعني لإن
+
+221
+00:18:09,550 --> 00:18:12,850
+الموظفين قبلات شو بيساوي بيروح بيشتري من ال... من
+
+222
+00:18:12,850 --> 00:18:15,850
+المحلات وكذا وبيدفعوا فلوس فالمحلات بيرجعوا
+
+223
+00:18:15,850 --> 00:18:20,370
+الفلوس لمن؟ للبنك فصار عنده الفلوس قيمتهم شيكل
+
+224
+00:18:20,370 --> 00:18:25,050
+فراح بده يشتري دولار عشان يرجع رصيده لإيش؟ للدولار
+
+225
+00:18:25,050 --> 00:18:27,870
+بده يشتري دولار راح على السوق okay قالوا له مقداش
+
+226
+00:18:27,870 --> 00:18:30,990
+الدولار حكوا له في السوق احنا الدولار تبعنا 3.57
+
+227
+00:18:30,990 --> 00:18:37,100
+دولار على الشيكل فإيش راح يسوي؟ راح
+
+228
+00:18:37,100 --> 00:18:44,360
+يجيب... كام محتاج شيكل يدفع؟ هيدفع سبعة وثلاثين وخمسماية ألف شيكل كام خسر البنك العربي؟ نص مليون
+
+229
+00:18:44,360 --> 00:18:50,740
+شيكل خسر بنات هذه شغلات حقيقية بتصير في البنوك بس
+
+230
+00:18:50,740 --> 00:18:54,980
+طبعًا البنك عنده الـ option two ما عندهش option one
+
+231
+00:18:54,980 --> 00:18:58,260
+Okay في الـ option one the bank is taking risk اتخذ
+
+232
+00:18:59,310 --> 00:19:04,110
+مخاطر وممكن السعر ينزل ويكسب الـ bank بس احنا
+
+233
+00:19:04,110 --> 00:19:08,190
+خلينا ناخد the worst case ناخد الـ worst case يعني
+
+234
+00:19:08,190 --> 00:19:12,070
+أسوأ شيء ممكن يصير مع الـ bank طيب إذا الخسر في
+
+235
+00:19:12,070 --> 00:19:17,530
+الحالة هذه 500 ألف لأنه أخد شوفوا أخد 37 مليون و
+
+236
+00:19:17,530 --> 00:19:24,070
+لما بده يشتري بده يدفع 37.5 مليون فصار عنده ناقص
+
+237
+00:19:24,070 --> 00:19:28,790
+500 اللي هو نص مليون شيكل طيب في عندهم مدير شاطر
+
+238
+00:19:28,790 --> 00:19:36,070
+فبيحكي لهم ليش why we go through this خلنا نروح
+
+239
+00:19:36,070 --> 00:19:39,450
+على option two option two اللي
+
+240
+00:19:39,450 --> 00:19:45,630
+هو خسر لإن
+
+241
+00:19:45,630 --> 00:19:49,630
+الدولار ارتفع فصار عنده risk لإن الأرصدة عنده
+
+242
+00:19:49,630 --> 00:19:55,980
+بالدولار فهو بده يحفظ فيها بالدولار فاحتياجه
+
+243
+00:19:55,980 --> 00:20:00,060
+لشيكل احتياج يومين طلعت بس فليش إنه أنا اروح احول
+
+244
+00:20:00,060 --> 00:20:04,340
+شيكل وأظل رصيدي بالشيكل وأخسر فهو هيستخدم option
+
+245
+00:20:04,340 --> 00:20:08,360
+2 في الحالة هذه الحالة أخذها لو ما أخذني ما أخذش
+
+246
+00:20:08,360 --> 00:20:11,600
+منك أنت عاد الشراء هذه الحالة لما بدأت... بالضبط
+
+247
+00:20:11,600 --> 00:20:15,160
+option option one يعني ما فيش إعادة شراء في option
+
+248
+00:20:15,160 --> 00:20:18,880
+two أيوة
+
+249
+00:20:22,840 --> 00:20:27,020
+هيكسب أه ما هي فيه إن أنا احتمال ربح واحتمال مخاطر
+
+251
+00:20:27,020 --> 00:20:31,080
+أنا أخذت احتمالات الأسوأ طبعا البنوك لما بتبني
+
+252
+00:20:31,080 --> 00:20:35,180
+قراراتها بتاخد احتمالات الأسوأ عشان هم ما يدخلوش في 
+
+253
+00:20:35,180 --> 00:20:39,740
+مخاطر لأنه يحافظوا على أموال المودعين ناخد option
+
+254
+00:20:39,740 --> 00:20:45,020
+2 نروح
+
+255
+00:20:45,020 --> 00:20:49,360
+على option 2 ونشوف option
+
+256
+00:20:49,360 --> 00:20:49,660
+2
+
+257
+00:20:55,180 --> 00:21:03,400
+في option 2 هيجي طبعا هو إيش هيعمل بده يشتري طبعا
+
+258
+00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:12,880
+شيكل شاكل today بده يشتري شاكل today مظبوط and
+
+259
+00:21:12,880 --> 00:21:18,240
+sell it tomorrow بده
+
+260
+00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:23,250
+يشتري الشيكل اليوم ويبيعوا بكرا أو العكس اللي هو
+
+261
+00:21:23,250 --> 00:21:27,730
+إذا بدها الشركة اللي بده يبيع إياه بيع دولار today
+
+262
+00:21:27,730 --> 00:21:36,650
+and sell and buy دولار طبعا هنا بيع هنا sell
+
+263
+00:21:36,650 --> 00:21:48,350
+dollar today و buy dollar tomorrow، مظبوط؟ ده
+
+264
+00:21:48,350 --> 00:21:55,550
+بنشوف راح اتصل في بنك فلسطين وحكاله احنا بدنا ..
+
+265
+00:21:55,550 --> 00:22:03,790
+بدنا شيكل احنا دولار بدنا شيكل بس we need this for
+
+266
+00:22:03,790 --> 00:22:07,390
+one night بدنا إياها اليوم واحد أو two nights
+
+267
+00:22:08,060 --> 00:22:11,600
+هيشوفوا قصير الأجل عشان هيك we call this money
+
+268
+00:22:11,600 --> 00:22:15,600
+market short term يعني هم الجماعة محتاجينها ليومين
+
+269
+00:22:15,600 --> 00:22:18,160
+ثلاثة فده يروح ويحطوا حاله في مخاطر يروح يبيع
+
+270
+00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:21,700
+الدولار وينتظر الأسعار كيف هتسير وبعدين يكون في
+
+271
+00:22:21,700 --> 00:22:25,600
+مخاطر بيحكي له okay اتصل في بنك فلسطين كم السعر
+
+272
+00:22:25,600 --> 00:22:31,680
+بيحكي له أربعة فاصلة زي واحد وسبعين لما
+
+273
+00:22:31,680 --> 00:22:37,730
+بده يبيع الدولار يبيع الدولار بيع الدولار طبعا
+
+274
+00:22:37,730 --> 00:22:42,790
+بديشتريه بكرا شراء الدولار بدل
+
+275
+00:22:42,790 --> 00:22:46,270
+ما يحكيله أربعة فاصلة مثلا اثنين وسبعين أو واحد
+
+276
+00:22:46,270 --> 00:22:50,410
+وسبعين بيحكيله اسمع نستخدمها repo rate نستخدم repo
+
+277
+00:22:50,410 --> 00:22:53,970
+rate بعطيك repo rate إيش ال repo rate أنه أنا
+
+278
+00:22:53,970 --> 00:22:58,810
+ببيعك الدولار ببيع الدولار الآن وبشري منك بكرا
+
+279
+00:22:58,810 --> 00:23:04,080
+مثلا أو بالنسبة للبنك العربي بروح ببيع الدولار على
+
+280
+00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:08,000
+الشيكل بيع دولار أخد شيكل وبكرا بيروح بشري
+
+281
+00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:11,720
+الدولار من بنك فلسطين بيحكي له أنا بحسب لك repo
+
+282
+00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:16,760
+rate لا أنا بتتغلب ولا أنت بتتغلب بحسب لك repo
+
+283
+00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:23,700
+rate مثلا واحد بالألف واحد
+
+284
+00:23:23,700 --> 00:23:29,020
+بالألف خلاص بحسب له نسبة مقبولة واحد بالألف كل الصفقة
+
+285
+00:23:29,020 --> 00:23:34,080
+عليها واحد بالألف يعني العشرة مليون وضربيهم في
+
+286
+00:23:34,080 --> 00:23:43,240
+واحد في الألف كم بيطلعوا عشرة مليون نضربهم في واحد
+
+287
+00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:47,380
+في الألف كم
+
+288
+00:23:47,380 --> 00:23:51,300
+بيطلع ضربوهم
+
+289
+00:23:51,300 --> 00:23:52,180
+عندكم بالأقل الحاسبة
+
+290
+00:23:58,290 --> 00:24:07,930
+واحد بالألف ضرب عشرة مليون مئة .. مئة دولار لأ
+
+291
+00:24:07,930 --> 00:24:12,690
+عادة بالواحد بالألف مئة دولار يعني إذا مئة دولار
+
+292
+00:24:12,690 --> 00:24:18,290
+هذه
+
+293
+00:24:18,290 --> 00:24:25,290
+واحد بالمية لما تضرب في المية okay واحد بالمية في
+
+294
+00:24:25,290 --> 00:24:29,200
+المية okay تطلع واحد بال .. بالعشر ثلاثة okay يعني
+
+295
+00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:34,940
+خلّاني واحد في المية واحد في المية بدنا إياها واحد
+
+296
+00:24:34,940 --> 00:24:38,100
+في المية في ال .. okay واحد بالألف مظبوط هيك صح؟
+
+297
+00:24:38,100 --> 00:24:47,740
+كم بتطلع مئة دولار؟ ما تطلعش واحد هاي
+
+298
+00:24:47,740 --> 00:24:53,140
+ال Excel انتبهوا
+
+299
+00:24:53,140 --> 00:24:53,280
+يعني
+
+300
+00:25:00,150 --> 00:25:07,410
+عنا كم؟ عشرة مليون، مظبوط؟ هاي العشرة مليون وعنا
+
+301
+00:25:07,410 --> 00:25:17,590
+واحد بالألف، هاي واحد بالألف بتساوي ضرب بتطلع عشرة
+
+302
+00:25:17,590 --> 00:25:24,550
+آلاف دولار بتطلع عشرة آلاف دولار okay يعني عشان أسهل
+
+303
+00:25:24,550 --> 00:25:24,990
+عليكم
+
+304
+00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:34,740
+Okay بيساوي كم؟ عشرة مليون دولار، فيها بيطلع عشرة
+
+305
+00:25:34,740 --> 00:25:39,660
+آلاف دولار، طب في الحالة الأولى كم خسر؟ خمسمائة
+
+306
+00:25:39,660 --> 00:25:43,920
+ألف، في الحالة الأولى كم؟ نصف مليون، في الحالة
+
+307
+00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:49,600
+الثانية كم؟ عشرة آلاف، أنه أحسن؟ أحسن عشرة آلاف يعني
+
+308
+00:25:49,600 --> 00:25:54,640
+فأسوأ هنا عشرة آلاف شيكل هنا بالشيكل وهنا خمسمائة
+
+309
+00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:59,740
+وبالتالي بتصير عنده أحسن أنه يدخل في السوق ال ..
+
+310
+00:25:59,740 --> 00:26:03,080
+ال .. ال agreement أحسن طب هلأ كيف راح يصير في
+
+311
+00:26:03,080 --> 00:26:07,280
+البنك؟ الراح يصير في البنك كالتالي بنك فلسطين ..
+
+312
+00:26:07,280 --> 00:26:15,880
+بنك العربي إنتوا معه Arab Bank هيرسل دولار ل bank
+
+313
+00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:23,490
+of Palestine إنتبهوا اتجاهات القسم هذا today الbank
+
+314
+00:26:23,490 --> 00:26:28,790
+of palestine هيعطي بنك العرب إيش؟ هيعطي شيكل هو
+
+315
+00:26:28,790 --> 00:26:37,070
+هيرسل الشيكل لـ بنك العربي هذا today tomorrow ال
+
+316
+00:26:37,070 --> 00:26:45,030
+arab bank هيروح يعطي ال bank فلسطين إيش هيعطيه
+
+317
+00:26:45,030 --> 00:26:52,970
+بكرا؟ هيعطيه شيكل أيوة هيعطيه شيكل وبنك فلسطين إيش
+
+318
+00:26:52,970 --> 00:26:56,830
+هيعطيه؟ هيعطيه دولار اتطلعوا على الدولار، الدولار
+
+319
+00:26:56,830 --> 00:27:02,290
+رجع لمين؟ شوفوا الدولار رجع لـ بنك العربي okay هذا
+
+320
+00:27:02,290 --> 00:27:07,110
+بيسموه ال repair chase طيب، ما سألناش سؤال طب بنك
+
+321
+00:27:07,110 --> 00:27:12,900
+فلسطين يعني شو استفاد من هذا الموضوع؟ استفاد من عشرة
+
+322
+00:27:12,900 --> 00:27:18,640
+آلاف لكن في نفس اللحظة احتمال يخسر فشو راح يسوي
+
+323
+00:27:18,640 --> 00:27:25,060
+بنك فلسطين؟ بنك فلسطين هيعمل شغلة اسمها reverse
+
+324
+00:27:25,060 --> 00:27:31,780
+reverse chase هيعمل reverse مع مين؟ مع بنك آخر مع
+
+325
+00:27:31,780 --> 00:27:34,980
+بنك ثاني، يعني ممكن يعملها مع Deutsch Bank، مع ال
+
+326
+00:27:34,980 --> 00:27:38,120
+HSBC Bank، ممكن يعملها مع مثلا ال housing bank،
+
+327
+00:27:38,120 --> 00:27:41,360
+بنك الإسكان وهكذا، كل بنك هيروح يعكسها مع بنك آخر
+
+328
+00:27:41,360 --> 00:27:44,300
+عشان يعملوا allocation لل risk أو transferring لل
+
+329
+00:27:44,300 --> 00:27:47,780
+risk اللي أخذناها ب chapter one، فاكرين لما حكينا
+
+330
+00:27:47,780 --> 00:27:54,800
+transferring لل risk؟ طيب، هلأ ال bank فلسطين إيش
+
+331
+00:27:54,800 --> 00:27:58,600
+هيسوي؟ يلا مين يحكي لـ bank فلسطين إيش هيسوي؟ مع
+
+332
+00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:01,620
+بنك العربي خلاص طب هو بنك فلسطين عشان يحمي ظهره
+
+333
+00:28:01,620 --> 00:28:06,900
+شو روح يسوي؟ في
+
+334
+00:28:06,900 --> 00:28:10,180
+.. في اليوم الأول شو حيسوي؟ في .. today هلأ هو صار
+
+335
+00:28:10,180 --> 00:28:16,900
+عنده .. باليوم الأول صار عنده دولار، مظبوط؟ هيروح
+
+336
+00:28:16,900 --> 00:28:20,760
+إيش يسوي بنك فلسطين؟ يلا هشوف
+
+337
+00:28:27,240 --> 00:28:32,920
+خلصنا بنك العرب وبنك الفلسطيني خلصناه هلأ
+
+338
+00:28:32,920 --> 00:28:37,660
+في اليوم الأول بنك الفلسطيني عنده دولار صح؟ في
+
+339
+00:28:37,660 --> 00:28:43,360
+اليوم الأول أيوة بيعملها مع بنك ثاني مثلا بنك
+
+340
+00:28:43,360 --> 00:28:51,920
+الإسلامي شو هيعمل معه؟ بيع دولار هيبيع دولار و
+
+341
+00:28:51,920 --> 00:28:57,640
+يشتري شيكل، شراء شيكل وثاني يوم إيش هيسوي؟ خليني
+
+342
+00:28:57,640 --> 00:29:00,420
+أبيع الدولار، أبيع الدولار اليوم، هيروح يشتريه
+
+343
+00:29:00,420 --> 00:29:07,040
+بكرا، شراء دولار، هاي طبعا، اتلاحظوا بيع دولار،
+
+344
+00:29:07,040 --> 00:29:11,740
+شراء .. شراء دولار بكرا، فصار العملية reverse،
+
+345
+00:29:11,740 --> 00:29:15,140
+يعني دائما هو بعكس العملية مع بنك .. مع بنك آخر
+
+346
+00:29:17,330 --> 00:29:21,330
+Okay هذه بيسموها reverse لاحظوا لما احنا حكينا على
+
+347
+00:29:21,330 --> 00:29:24,970
+ال ..
+
+348
+00:29:24,970 --> 00:29:32,770
+repos and reverses قرأتوها هان repos and reverses
+
+349
+00:29:32,770 --> 00:29:38,770
+reverses كل عملية بيعملها بنك آخر عكسها okay
+
+350
+00:29:41,070 --> 00:29:44,130
+يعني نفسنا لو نرجع لفكرة ال mobile لما أنا باعت ال
+
+351
+00:29:44,130 --> 00:29:49,530
+mobile الطرف الآخر هيروح يعكس العملية يبيعه مع طرف
+
+352
+00:29:49,530 --> 00:29:54,590
+آخر وهكذا لو بعدين ثاني يوم هترجع الأمور تتكرر
+
+353
+00:29:54,590 --> 00:29:58,150
+بالطريقة العكسية هذا بيسموها repurchase agreement
+
+354
+00:29:58,150 --> 00:30:01,030
+طب علشان بيستخدم ال repurchase agreement عشان ت
+
+355
+00:30:01,030 --> 00:30:08,330
+allocate risk وتخفض المخاطر okay مرض عليكم
+
+356
+00:30:08,330 --> 00:30:10,190
+بحياتكم العملية مثل هالأمور
+
+357
+00:30:14,460 --> 00:30:18,260
+طبعا هي بالأسواق المالية معروفة يعني طبعا هلأ نرجع
+
+358
+00:30:18,260 --> 00:30:21,920
+لسؤال ال ribos مين بحدد ال ribo هل بنك فلسطين هو
+
+359
+00:30:21,920 --> 00:30:27,360
+بخاطره يحسب ال ribo ال ribo يتم تحديده دوليا يتم
+
+360
+00:30:27,360 --> 00:30:35,740
+تحديده إيش دوليا كيف يتم تحديده دوليا يتم
+
+361
+00:30:35,740 --> 00:30:38,640
+تحديده حسب أسعار شغل اسمها library
+
+362
+00:30:41,820 --> 00:30:48,320
+حسب سعر ال LIBOR دوليا LIBOR
+
+363
+00:30:48,320 --> 00:30:55,620
+إيش معناه LIBOR LIBOR اجت من البنوك في لندن بتقترض
+
+364
+00:30:55,620 --> 00:31:03,580
+من بعضها يعني مثلا bank HSBC bank بده فلوس الليلة
+
+365
+00:31:03,580 --> 00:31:08,120
+هذه لبكرة ف أمامه بده يقترض فبالجوء لـ بنك المركزي
+
+366
+00:31:08,120 --> 00:31:11,340
+اللي هو ال central bank ال central bank of England
+
+367
+00:31:11,340 --> 00:31:16,700
+فبروح بتداين من بنك آخر لمدة يوم أو يومين فالبنك
+
+368
+00:31:16,700 --> 00:31:20,620
+المركزي صار يحدد أسعار أن البنوك تتداين من بعضها
+
+369
+00:31:20,620 --> 00:31:24,840
+فبيسموه LIBOR London Interbanking Over Rate
+
+370
+00:31:24,840 --> 00:31:31,900
+فبيسموه London Interbank Over
+
+371
+00:31:31,900 --> 00:31:33,840
+Rate
+
+372
+00:31:36,800 --> 00:31:40,280
+اللي هاد نجحت في .. في .. في بريطانيا صار تعمم
+
+373
+00:31:40,280 --> 00:31:43,800
+على كل العالم، يعني صار ال bank فلسطين مثلا، ال
+
+374
+00:31:43,800 --> 00:31:47,260
+bank العربي، ال bank ال .. أي بنك في الأردن، بنك
+
+375
+00:31:47,260 --> 00:31:50,600
+في مصر، في أوروبا، في الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية، 
+
+376
+00:31:50,600 --> 00:31:54,700
+صاروا يستخدموا الـ Libor يستخدموا إيش؟ الـ library
+
+377
+00:31:54,700 --> 00:31:58,340
+عشان هم ما ييجيش مثلا بنك فلسطيني يحكيله أنا هذا الـ
+
+378
+00:31:58,340 --> 00:32:01,120
+repo تبعي ييجي بنك آخر يحكيله الـ repo أعلى
+
+379
+00:32:01,120 --> 00:32:07,180
+وبالتالي صاروا عساسي وحده الفوائد فصاروا يستخدموا 
+
+380
+00:32:07,180 --> 00:32:11,340
+الـ library اللي هو London Interbank Offered Rate سموه
+
+381
+00:32:11,340 --> 00:32:14,320
+library معروف روحوا ادخلوا مثلا على Google اكتبوا
+
+382
+00:32:14,320 --> 00:32:17,800
+library هتشوفوا الـ library وهذا الـ library updated
+
+383
+00:32:17,800 --> 00:32:23,430
+every night updated every night يعني كل ليلة بيتغير
+
+384
+00:32:23,430 --> 00:32:29,290
+تمام هذا بيسموه الـ library و
+
+385
+00:32:29,290 --> 00:32:31,510
+بناء على الـ library كمان بيحسبوا القروض و بيحسبوا
+
+386
+00:32:31,510 --> 00:32:36,530
+الودائع و بيحسبوا شغلات كبيرة فيا ريت تكونوا هيك
+
+387
+00:32:36,530 --> 00:32:39,750
+يعني بالـ free time تبعكم بس just google library
+
+388
+00:32:39,750 --> 00:32:43,190
+and read around library how banks و هذا
+
+389
+00:32:43,190 --> 00:32:46,270
+international standard خدوا بأكم يعني كل البلوك في
+
+390
+00:32:46,270 --> 00:32:53,080
+العالم كلها بدون استثناء تستخدم الـ library Okay في
+
+391
+00:32:53,080 --> 00:33:06,180
+حد عندي سؤال على الـ repos الـ
+
+392
+00:33:06,180 --> 00:33:09,640
+federal funds يعني لإنه مش احنا ما بنستخدمش الـ
+
+393
+00:33:09,640 --> 00:33:12,300
+federal funds هذا مرتبط في الولايات المتحدة
+
+394
+00:33:12,300 --> 00:33:18,060
+الأمريكية okay هذا الـ federal funds مشبه الـ ..
+
+395
+00:33:18,060 --> 00:33:23,500
+بشبه الـ overnight loans يعني البنوك لما بتتداين من
+
+396
+00:33:23,500 --> 00:33:28,900
+بعض القانون بسمح للبنوك أن هي تتداين من بعضها لأن
+
+397
+00:33:28,900 --> 00:33:32,320
+the central bank is considered as the last resource
+
+398
+00:33:33,070 --> 00:33:36,050
+يعني المقرض الأخير أخدته الكلام هذا أو بتعرفوه دي
+
+399
+00:33:36,050 --> 00:33:39,190
+هو طبعا المقرض الأخير فممنوع البنوك تتصل في البنك
+
+400
+00:33:39,190 --> 00:33:44,330
+المركزي في طلب السيولة النقدية أو مثلا أنا محتاج كـ
+
+401
+00:33:44,330 --> 00:33:50,710
+مثلا نحكي city bank بكرا عنده صفقة بدي أعملها راح
+
+402
+00:33:50,710 --> 00:33:54,350
+أتطلع على الـ balance sheet تبعته ووجد أن city bank بيحتاج مثلا
+
+403
+00:33:54,350 --> 00:33:59,110
+one مليار واحد مليار بده بس بده ياهم ليومين و
+
+404
+00:33:59,110 --> 00:34:04,340
+بعدين هيرجع له فلوسه فبدل ما يقترض فبيروح بيحكي مع البنوك
+
+405
+00:34:04,340 --> 00:34:07,860
+وبيستخدموا الـ library بيستخدموا الـ federal funds
+
+406
+00:34:07,860 --> 00:34:11,520
+فالـ federal funds هذا بيستخدم للإقراض بين البنوك
+
+407
+00:34:11,520 --> 00:34:20,020
+طبعا كيف بيستخدموه؟ شوفوا كيف بيستخدموا البنك 
+
+408
+00:34:20,020 --> 00:34:27,140
+المركزي كل بنك من البنوك بنك A مثلا و بنك C
+
+409
+00:34:30,700 --> 00:34:34,100
+بيكونوا محتفظين في حسابات لدى إيش؟ لدى الـ central
+
+410
+00:34:34,100 --> 00:34:37,700
+bank الـ central bank اللي في الولايات المتحدة إيش
+
+411
+00:34:37,700 --> 00:34:42,980
+بيسموه؟ بيسموه the federal reserve bank federal
+
+412
+00:34:42,980 --> 00:34:46,020
+reserve bank اللي هو البنك الفيدرالي .. البنك
+
+413
+00:34:46,020 --> 00:34:48,640
+الاحتياطي الفيدرالي الأمريكي بالنسبة إحنا في
+
+414
+00:34:48,640 --> 00:34:51,680
+السلطة الفلسطينية إيش بيسميه؟ بيسميه the monetary
+
+415
+00:34:51,680 --> 00:34:55,740
+authority .. Palestinian Monetary Authority اللي
+
+416
+00:34:55,740 --> 00:34:58,440
+هو سلطة النقد الفلسطينية بالنسبة لمصر إيش بيسميه؟
+
+417
+00:34:59,420 --> 00:35:02,260
+اللي هو البنك المركزي المصري بالنسبة للسعودية شو
+
+418
+00:35:02,260 --> 00:35:08,240
+بنسميه؟ لأ اسمه سلطة النقد السعودي خلاص كل واحد هو
+
+419
+00:35:08,240 --> 00:35:12,080
+بيعمل مثابة البنك المركزي بالنسبة لأوروبا اللي هو
+
+420
+00:35:12,080 --> 00:35:15,680
+European Central Bank بالنسبة للولايات المتحدة
+
+421
+00:35:15,680 --> 00:35:18,280
+بيسموها Federal Reserve Bank فالـ Federal Reserve
+
+422
+00:35:18,280 --> 00:35:21,940
+Bank Federal Reserve Bank كل بنك من هالبنوك هدول
+
+423
+00:35:21,940 --> 00:35:28,880
+بيكون محتفظ في أرصدة عشان تشوف كيف الـ funds الأرصدة
+
+424
+00:35:28,880 --> 00:35:32,400
+هذه لما البنوك تتدين من بعضها بتدينه من خلال البنك
+
+425
+00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:37,940
+المركزي كل بنك من البنوك هذا بيحفظ في حسابات البنك
+
+426
+00:35:37,940 --> 00:35:43,860
+هذا بده فلوس بنك A is in deficit عنده عجز فهياخد
+
+427
+00:35:43,860 --> 00:35:48,800
+من البنك اللي عنده surplus فبالتالي إيش راح يصير؟ راح
+
+428
+00:35:48,800 --> 00:35:58,920
+يصير البنك A عنده عجز minus وبنك C عنده plus البنك
+
+429
+00:35:58,920 --> 00:36:05,200
+اللي عنده plus هياخد فائدة والبنك اللي عنده عاجز
+
+430
+00:36:05,200 --> 00:36:09,580
+هيدفع فائدة فلما سي البنوك تتداين من بعضها جزء من
+
+431
+00:36:09,580 --> 00:36:22,440
+الفلوس تبع بنك C هتروح لـ بنك A يغطيه معاها طبعا
+
+432
+00:36:22,440 --> 00:36:26,580
+هيتم احتساب هذا المبلغ اللي هيروح بنحسب عليه اللي
+
+433
+00:36:26,580 --> 00:36:33,670
+يسموه federal fund rates فائدة،
+
+434
+00:36:33,670 --> 00:36:37,330
+ليه فائدة؟ هيدفع عليه فائدة، okay؟ هيدفع عليه
+
+435
+00:36:37,330 --> 00:36:40,560
+فائدة نفس الشيء اللي عندنا في مناطق السلطة
+
+436
+00:36:40,560 --> 00:36:44,440
+الفلسطينية كل بنك من البنوك بيحتفظ في حساب لدى
+
+437
+00:36:44,440 --> 00:36:47,780
+سلطة النقد الفلسطينية وممكن البنوك تدعم بعضها
+
+438
+00:36:47,780 --> 00:36:51,900
+ويتم احتساب فائدة بتتحددها سلطة النقد الفلسطينية
+
+439
+00:36:51,900 --> 00:36:54,960
+طبعا سلطة النقد الفلسطينية لأنه ما فيش عندنا عملة
+
+440
+00:36:54,960 --> 00:36:58,740
+شكل عملة جنيه فلسطيني فبيروحوا بيحسبوا بيحسبوا اللي
+
+441
+00:36:58,740 --> 00:37:02,220
+هو ممكن الـ federal fund rates بيحسبوا اللي هو الـ
+
+442
+00:37:02,220 --> 00:37:07,320
+federal fund rates بالدولار فهذا بيسموه الـ federal
+
+443
+00:37:07,320 --> 00:37:16,170
+fund rates لأن البنوك تتداين من بعضها خلصنا؟
+
+444
+00:37:16,170 --> 00:37:21,230
+okay خلاص نوقف عند هذا الحد عشان المرة الجاية بنحكي
+
+445
+00:37:21,230 --> 00:37:25,150
+عن الـ capital markets المرة الجاية بتحضروا الـ
+
+446
+00:37:25,150 --> 00:37:27,750
+capital markets okay يعطيكم بالعافية
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/SKWjWg0aL4w_raw.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/SKWjWg0aL4w_raw.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..09aefa653e2e5461f09676f1e95be231966d84f1
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/SKWjWg0aL4w_raw.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1784 @@
+1
+00:00:21,910 --> 00:00:26,790
+بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم احنا هنبدأ بال .. بال asset
+
+2
+00:00:26,790 --> 00:00:30,770
+classes بالقائمة ثالثة انا ما اعتقد بال asset
+
+3
+00:00:30,770 --> 00:00:35,310
+classes و المرة الفاترة كنا نحكي في ال bankers
+
+4
+00:00:35,310 --> 00:00:40,430
+acceptance okay و .. و ال bankers acceptance هي
+
+5
+00:00:40,430 --> 00:00:44,110
+كلها بال money markets حكينا ال bankers acceptance
+
+6
+00:00:44,110 --> 00:00:49,150
+و ال commercial papers حكينا ال treasury bills و
+
+7
+00:00:49,150 --> 00:00:56,680
+.. و إيش كمانو certificate of deposits شهادات
+
+8
+00:00:56,680 --> 00:01:00,600
+إيداع okay فى حد مش فاهم إيش من هدول الأربعة اللى
+
+9
+00:01:00,600 --> 00:01:06,020
+حاكيناهم okay bankers acceptance واضحة طيب هلا
+
+10
+00:01:06,020 --> 00:01:09,300
+نحكي بال euro dollars so what it means euro
+
+11
+00:01:09,300 --> 00:01:15,020
+dollars euro dollars is any dollar traded outside
+
+12
+00:01:15,020 --> 00:01:18,460
+the united states is considered as a euro dollar
+
+13
+00:01:19,110 --> 00:01:21,610
+يعني أي دولار يتم تداوله خارج الولايات المتحدة
+
+14
+00:01:21,610 --> 00:01:27,930
+الأمريكية هو يعتبر euro dollar okay in the same
+
+15
+00:01:27,930 --> 00:01:34,030
+vein في نفس السياق any yen for instance traded
+
+16
+00:01:34,030 --> 00:01:39,930
+outside Japan is considered as euro yen يعني حتى
+
+17
+00:01:39,930 --> 00:01:41,890
+ال yen اللي يتم تداوله ال yen الياباني العملة
+
+18
+00:01:41,890 --> 00:01:45,770
+اليابانية أي yen ياباني يتم تداوله خارج اليابان
+
+19
+00:01:45,770 --> 00:01:52,930
+بنسميه euro yenSo why investors prefer to trade in
+
+20
+00:01:52,930 --> 00:01:58,330
+dollar of the United States لما نحكي of .. of ..
+
+21
+00:01:58,330 --> 00:02:02,470
+I'm using of not of .. of .. of the United States
+
+22
+00:02:02,470 --> 00:02:05,230
+it means outside the United States So why
+
+23
+00:02:05,230 --> 00:02:08,830
+investors prefer to use or to trade in dollar of
+
+24
+00:02:08,830 --> 00:02:12,370
+the United States So they have two options to
+
+25
+00:02:12,370 --> 00:02:14,870
+trade or to invest the dollar inside the United
+
+26
+00:02:14,870 --> 00:02:19,090
+States or outside the United Statesbecause of the
+
+27
+00:02:19,090 --> 00:02:23,950
+united states giving them higher return يعني خارج
+
+28
+00:02:23,950 --> 00:02:26,010
+الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية لما هم بيستثمروا في
+
+29
+00:02:26,010 --> 00:02:29,510
+الدولار خارج الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية بيعطيهم
+
+30
+00:02:29,510 --> 00:02:33,330
+عائد أعلى so this is why investors prefer to
+
+31
+00:02:33,330 --> 00:02:36,550
+invest in dollar of the united states rather to
+
+32
+00:02:36,550 --> 00:02:41,650
+invest it inside the united states إذن أي عملة يتم
+
+33
+00:02:41,650 --> 00:02:48,660
+تداولها خارج الدولةبتاعتها بنسميها euro something
+
+34
+00:02:48,660 --> 00:02:54,760
+يعني مثلا احنا هأعطيلكم مثال الين الين .. الين هي
+
+35
+00:02:54,760 --> 00:02:58,100
+الرمزة الين الين الياباني okay الين الياباني لما
+
+36
+00:02:58,100 --> 00:03:01,540
+أنا بداول الين الياباني خارج اليابان فبنسميه اش
+
+37
+00:03:01,540 --> 00:03:04,820
+euro yen okay
+
+38
+00:03:06,570 --> 00:03:10,310
+ليش احنا استخدمنا كلمة euro ما استخدمناش مثلا كلمة
+
+39
+00:03:10,310 --> 00:03:13,930
+أخرى because the most of trade is coming from
+
+40
+00:03:13,930 --> 00:03:17,770
+European countries يعني أغلب ال .. ال .. الاتجارات
+
+41
+00:03:17,770 --> 00:03:21,870
+و الاستثمارات بتتم في الولايات .. في أوروبا طبعا
+
+42
+00:03:21,870 --> 00:03:26,530
+في financial hub في العالم ال financial hub في
+
+43
+00:03:26,530 --> 00:03:29,750
+العالم يعني مناطق الاستثمار في العالم في عندنا
+
+44
+00:03:29,750 --> 00:03:35,490
+Frankfurt عارفين Frankfurt؟ وين Frankfurt؟Okay هذا
+
+45
+00:03:35,490 --> 00:03:40,490
+.. هذا بيعتبر تاني hub في العالم و في عندنا كمان
+
+46
+00:03:40,490 --> 00:03:44,090
+ال wall street, وين ال wall street؟ United States
+
+47
+00:03:44,090 --> 00:03:47,810
+و في عندنا كمان كانت البحرين بس اللحظة هاي صارت
+
+48
+00:03:47,810 --> 00:03:51,670
+دبي بيعتبر ثالث رابع hub financial hub في العالم
+
+49
+00:03:51,670 --> 00:03:57,400
+okay و عندنا كمان اللي هو Tokyoهذه كمان تدخل علينا
+
+50
+00:03:57,400 --> 00:04:00,520
+أربع financial hub في ال .. في ال international أو
+
+51
+00:04:00,520 --> 00:04:05,140
+في ال .. في العالم كله فهدول ال financial hubs are
+
+52
+00:04:05,140 --> 00:04:09,820
+using currencies hard currencies to invest in
+
+53
+00:04:09,820 --> 00:04:13,880
+overall the world بيستخدموا عملات صعبة يعني for
+
+54
+00:04:13,880 --> 00:04:17,740
+instance على سبيل المثال في ألمانيا مثلا بيستخدموا
+
+55
+00:04:17,740 --> 00:04:22,940
+عظم العملات الصعبة مثل اليندي الياباني okay يعتبر
+
+56
+00:04:22,940 --> 00:04:28,470
+عملة صعبة مثل ال euroOkay ال .. يعتبر عاملة صعبة
+
+57
+00:04:28,470 --> 00:04:33,170
+الدولار أكيد عاملة صعبة ال bound كمان يعتبر عاملة
+
+58
+00:04:33,170 --> 00:04:36,710
+صعبة طب لو احنا حكينا ال .. ال bound اللي هو
+
+59
+00:04:36,710 --> 00:04:41,470
+هنسميه euro bound اذا احنا بنستخدم ال bound of the
+
+60
+00:04:41,470 --> 00:04:46,650
+.. of the UK لأن مين اللي بصدر ال bound؟ ال bound
+
+61
+00:04:46,650 --> 00:04:49,720
+يعني الإجناء السرلينيOkay the UK اللي هو the
+
+62
+00:04:49,720 --> 00:04:54,040
+British .. the .. the UK united kingdom so the
+
+63
+00:04:54,040 --> 00:04:58,980
+united kingdom traded in the .. in the pound so
+
+64
+00:04:58,980 --> 00:05:02,460
+any pound traded of the UK is considered as euro
+
+65
+00:05:02,460 --> 00:05:08,120
+pound اللي هو السترليني بيتم تعامل خارج ال ..
+
+66
+00:05:08,120 --> 00:05:13,540
+الدولة تبعتهم طبعا احنا حكينا ليش؟ ايش السبب؟ عدوا
+
+67
+00:05:13,540 --> 00:05:14,000
+ليه ليش؟
+
+68
+00:05:18,090 --> 00:05:21,850
+اه الاستثمار بيكون خارج الدولة أعلى العائد من داخل
+
+69
+00:05:21,850 --> 00:05:27,350
+الدولة يعني مثلا لو أنا أستثمر في الدولار في داخل
+
+70
+00:05:27,350 --> 00:05:30,030
+الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية في united states ممكن
+
+71
+00:05:30,030 --> 00:05:34,770
+يعطيني مثلا three percent لكن أستثمر الدولار of
+
+72
+00:05:34,770 --> 00:05:37,470
+the united states of the united states ممكن يعطيني
+
+73
+00:05:37,470 --> 00:05:41,630
+four percent okay high return and in the same vein
+
+74
+00:05:41,630 --> 00:05:44,890
+high risk زي ما بنحكي احنا في عندنا high return
+
+75
+00:05:44,890 --> 00:05:49,360
+كمان في عندنا high riskOkay؟ هذا بالنسبة لليورو
+
+76
+00:05:49,360 --> 00:05:58,560
+دولار طبعا يتم إصدار أدوات مالية بهذه العملات خارج
+
+77
+00:05:58,560 --> 00:06:01,200
+الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية يعني ممكن أعطيكوا مثال
+
+78
+00:06:01,200 --> 00:06:04,740
+ممكن البنك ال .. البنك المركزي الإنجليزي مثلا يروح
+
+79
+00:06:04,740 --> 00:06:10,700
+يصدر سندات بال .. بالسترليني عفوا بالدولار طبعا هو
+
+80
+00:06:10,700 --> 00:06:14,160
+بنك إنجليزي فالمفروض يصدر سندات بالإياش بالسترليني
+
+81
+00:06:14,160 --> 00:06:18,220
+فبروح يصدرها بالإياش بالدولارفإيش بنسميه في الحالة
+
+82
+00:06:18,220 --> 00:06:24,240
+هذا؟ بنسميها إيش؟ euro bond أو dollar bond سندات
+
+83
+00:06:24,240 --> 00:06:29,920
+بالدولار وهذه طبعا برضه بتضالها في ال euro dollar
+
+84
+00:06:29,920 --> 00:06:33,640
+bonds euro dollar bonds يعني إما إحنا ال bonds
+
+85
+00:06:33,640 --> 00:06:36,800
+نصدره
+
+86
+00:06:36,800 --> 00:06:41,380
+بالدولار outside or of the united states of the
+
+87
+00:06:41,380 --> 00:06:45,380
+united states إيش بنسميه؟ بسميه euro dollar
+
+88
+00:06:47,880 --> 00:06:53,560
+bond هلأ إذا كان خارج ال united states نسميه euro
+
+89
+00:06:53,560 --> 00:06:58,540
+dollar bond طب لو كان .. يعني مثلا احنا أصدرنا ال
+
+90
+00:06:58,540 --> 00:07:02,420
+.. عادة مين بصدر السندات بالدولار؟ ال united
+
+91
+00:07:02,420 --> 00:07:06,940
+states طب لو أحنا أصدرنا سندات أمريكية خارج
+
+92
+00:07:06,940 --> 00:07:09,160
+الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية يعني البنك المركزي
+
+93
+00:07:09,160 --> 00:07:12,960
+الإنجليزي راح أصدر سندات بالدولار
+
+94
+00:07:14,290 --> 00:07:18,790
+فبنسمي السندات هذه نسميها euro dollar bond نعطي
+
+95
+00:07:18,790 --> 00:07:23,530
+مثال تاني لو حكينا مثلا ال .. ال .. ال ASB عارفين
+
+96
+00:07:23,530 --> 00:07:27,270
+ASB؟ ضروري هدول المصطلحات تكون عندكم معرفة فيها
+
+97
+00:07:27,270 --> 00:07:30,270
+لإنه بتتكرر كتير بالأخبار في الجزيرة بال CNBC
+
+98
+00:07:30,270 --> 00:07:34,350
+بيحكوش مثلا the central bank of Europe لإنه it
+
+99
+00:07:34,350 --> 00:07:36,430
+takes time لما بيحكوها ال central bank of Europe
+
+100
+00:07:36,430 --> 00:07:41,390
+أخدت ثانية من وقت المزيد عشان يحكيها فبحكي ASB ال
+
+101
+00:07:41,390 --> 00:07:44,840
+ASB اللي هي بيسميها ال European Central Bankالبنك
+
+102
+00:07:44,840 --> 00:07:47,680
+المركزي الأوروبي فهلأ البنك المركزي الأوروبي راح
+
+103
+00:07:47,680 --> 00:07:54,320
+أصدر bonds مثلا بال .. مثلا بال yen فشو روح نسميها
+
+104
+00:07:54,320 --> 00:08:02,000
+في الحالة هذه؟ روح نسميها euro يورو يند bond هي
+
+105
+00:08:02,000 --> 00:08:06,220
+التسمية بتاعتها تصير فبصير أنه البنك المركزي روح
+
+106
+00:08:06,220 --> 00:08:13,780
+يصدر عملة يصدر سندات بعملة أخرى ولكن هذا نادرغالبا
+
+107
+00:08:13,780 --> 00:08:18,760
+.. غالبا الدول بتصدر بالدولار، غالبا الدولار هو
+
+108
+00:08:18,760 --> 00:08:25,060
+متعرف عليه و بستاني بيسموه euro dollar bonds okay
+
+109
+00:08:25,060 --> 00:08:31,040
+any question؟ أي سؤال على ال euro dollar؟ مضحك
+
+110
+00:08:31,040 --> 00:08:38,960
+اظنها ال euro dollar، في حد مش واضح عنده؟ rebounds
+
+111
+00:08:38,960 --> 00:08:43,730
+and reversesrebours and reverses short term loan
+
+112
+00:08:43,730 --> 00:08:47,710
+backed by government securities في حد تعرف what it
+
+113
+00:08:47,710 --> 00:08:54,970
+means? اتفاقية إعادة الشرائع عارفين كيف هذا بتتم؟
+
+114
+00:08:54,970 --> 00:08:58,650
+اللي
+
+115
+00:08:58,650 --> 00:09:02,210
+هو rebours اللي هو repurchase agreement هذه
+
+116
+00:09:02,210 --> 00:09:08,150
+اختصارها rebours اختصارها repurchase agreement
+
+117
+00:09:13,220 --> 00:09:19,900
+purchase agreements طيب
+
+118
+00:09:19,900 --> 00:09:23,660
+how
+
+119
+00:09:23,660 --> 00:09:27,360
+we use repurchase agreements؟ كيف احنا بستخدم ال
+
+120
+00:09:27,360 --> 00:09:31,320
+repurchase agreements؟ and why we use this؟ و ليش
+
+121
+00:09:31,320 --> 00:09:40,580
+احنا بستخدمها؟ في حد عنده فكرة؟ طيب
+
+122
+00:09:41,760 --> 00:09:45,240
+نعطي مثال بسيط و بعدين نطبقها how the investors
+
+123
+00:09:45,240 --> 00:09:50,000
+use it بس عشان تفهم المثال أنا هي معايا موبايل
+
+124
+00:09:50,000 --> 00:09:54,620
+okay بدي
+
+125
+00:09:54,620 --> 00:09:58,700
+فلوس بس ليوم واحد I don't have any money ماعنديش
+
+126
+00:09:58,700 --> 00:10:03,180
+أي فلوس بس معايا ال mobile تبعي فإيش ال option مش
+
+127
+00:10:03,180 --> 00:10:09,480
+أرهنه أبيعه أبيعه بعدين أشتريه okay هلأ ال mobile
+
+128
+00:10:12,740 --> 00:10:17,920
+الموبايل نفترض ثمن و ميت دولار ثمن و كام؟ ميت
+
+129
+00:10:17,920 --> 00:10:20,920
+دولار طبعا انا مابدي أدى يعني انا معايا الموبايل
+
+130
+00:10:20,920 --> 00:10:26,440
+تبعى فبروح بحكي مين يشتري مني الموبايل فبيش بحكي
+
+131
+00:10:26,440 --> 00:10:32,640
+واحد كأنا بشتري منك فبيعت الموبايل فلما بعت
+
+132
+00:10:32,640 --> 00:10:37,540
+الموبايل صار عندى ميت دولار في جيبتي plus and I
+
+133
+00:10:37,540 --> 00:10:41,500
+don't have mobileركزوا في المثال I don't have
+
+134
+00:10:41,500 --> 00:10:49,380
+mobile طيب ال
+
+135
+00:10:49,380 --> 00:10:53,780
+100 دولار انا لان معيش ال 100 دولار هذه بس بكرا في
+
+136
+00:10:53,780 --> 00:10:57,400
+صاحبي بده ي .. انا بده منه فلوس داينه و حكي اللي
+
+137
+00:10:57,400 --> 00:11:01,640
+بكرا بجيبلكيهم فتاني يوم جابلي ال 100 دولار تاني
+
+138
+00:11:01,640 --> 00:11:07,600
+يوم اياش جابلي ال 100 دولار فهدي ال 100 دولار صار
+
+139
+00:11:07,600 --> 00:11:12,420
+عندى 100 دولارجابليها صديقي فانا بدأ أسد مين؟ بدأ
+
+140
+00:11:12,420 --> 00:11:18,220
+أسد عيد شراء ال mobile عاد شراء ال mobile روحت على
+
+141
+00:11:18,220 --> 00:11:20,980
+السوق بدأ أشر ال mobile زي ال mobile اللي أنا
+
+142
+00:11:20,980 --> 00:11:25,200
+معايا إيش قالولي لأ؟ هذا بمية و عشرين دولار،
+
+143
+00:11:25,200 --> 00:11:29,640
+مظبوط؟ مش هذا اللي بيصير معاكم؟ أنا خسرت كام في
+
+144
+00:11:29,640 --> 00:11:34,660
+هالحالة؟ عشرين دولار في في السوق في ال .. بال
+
+145
+00:11:34,660 --> 00:11:39,690
+financial markets لأنه أنا لما روحت على ميةبيعته ب
+
+146
+00:11:39,690 --> 00:11:43,330
+100 و لما روحت اعمال اعيد شرائه لان انا بدي .. بدي
+
+147
+00:11:43,330 --> 00:11:46,730
+mobile دفعت 120 فانا خسرت 20 دولار في الحالة هذه
+
+148
+00:11:46,730 --> 00:11:51,830
+اه في في الأسواق المالية بيعملولي بيعملولي
+
+149
+00:11:51,830 --> 00:11:57,790
+services خدمات بيحكولي okay if you need 100$ this
+
+150
+00:11:57,790 --> 00:12:02,630
+is fine بياخدوا ال mobile و في نفس اللحظة اللي انا
+
+151
+00:12:02,630 --> 00:12:06,350
+ببيع فيها ال mobile بقى اتفق على اعادة شراء في نفس
+
+152
+00:12:06,350 --> 00:12:12,180
+اللحظةOkay يعني بتفق أنه أنا باعته بمية و بحكي طب
+
+153
+00:12:12,180 --> 00:12:15,820
+أنا لبكرا بدأ أشري كام أدفع .. كام بدأ أدفع
+
+154
+00:12:15,820 --> 00:12:20,980
+فبيعطوني .. بيعطوني بيحكولي okay مية و واحد دولار
+
+155
+00:12:20,980 --> 00:12:26,700
+طبعا شراق
+
+156
+00:12:26,700 --> 00:12:34,800
+مية دولار تابعوا معايا شراق عفوا بدينا ببيع .. بيع
+
+157
+00:12:34,800 --> 00:12:40,630
+مية دولار بيعت ال mobileو في نفس اللحظة بدي إيش؟
+
+158
+00:12:40,630 --> 00:12:51,170
+أشري شراء بكم 101 دولار نفس
+
+159
+00:12:51,170 --> 00:12:55,710
+اللحظة نفس الاشي نفس اللي سوناها بس بروح ببيع ال
+
+160
+00:12:55,710 --> 00:12:58,910
+mobile مع نفس الشخص بقوله أنا بدي أشري بكرا منك
+
+161
+00:12:58,910 --> 00:13:02,850
+بدي أشري يعني أنا بيعطي اللحظة هذه و في نفس اللحظة
+
+162
+00:13:02,850 --> 00:13:06,930
+بدي أشري بكرا منه بس الاتفاق بيكون في إيش؟ في نفس
+
+163
+00:13:06,930 --> 00:13:14,330
+الوقتوبالتالي في نفس الوقت بيحكيله okay انا بشري
+
+164
+00:13:14,330 --> 00:13:22,530
+منك ب 100 دولار و بكرا ببيعكيا ب 101 okay طيب في
+
+165
+00:13:22,530 --> 00:13:26,630
+صفة انه انا كام خسرت في اللحظة دولار واحد لو انا
+
+166
+00:13:26,630 --> 00:13:30,770
+مادخلتش بال .. بال .. ال repos بخسر عشرين دولار
+
+167
+00:13:30,770 --> 00:13:38,320
+طيب لسه بنكمل هان لما الدولار 100 دولارلما أنا بقت
+
+168
+00:13:38,320 --> 00:13:43,140
+ال .. ال .. ال mobile تمام حصلت على cash مية دولار
+
+169
+00:13:43,140 --> 00:13:46,760
+cash مكرا
+
+170
+00:13:46,760 --> 00:13:55,500
+هرجع ال cash، مظبوط؟ طيب طبعا هرجع ال cash و زيادة
+
+171
+00:13:55,500 --> 00:14:00,070
+عليهم كام؟دولار واحد هينخفض من الرصيد تبع دولار
+
+172
+00:14:00,070 --> 00:14:03,310
+واحد بيجيلي الرجال بيحكي له ليش هاد دوشة هذه مية و
+
+173
+00:14:03,310 --> 00:14:06,730
+مية لأ خلينا احنا بدل ما ندفع على مية دولار و مية
+
+174
+00:14:06,730 --> 00:14:11,490
+و واحد لأ نحسب شغله اسمه repo rate نحسب ايش? repo
+
+175
+00:14:11,490 --> 00:14:15,970
+rate يعني نسبة بدون ما احكيلك هذا بمية و هذا
+
+176
+00:14:15,970 --> 00:14:19,970
+بميتين لأ انا بعطيك ال cash اللي انت بدكيها okay و
+
+177
+00:14:19,970 --> 00:14:24,850
+بحسبلك عليها repo rate هذا الرقم ايش بيسموه بيسموه
+
+178
+00:14:24,850 --> 00:14:30,350
+repo rateطبعا هو بدل ما هو ناقص واحد بيحولونا نسبة
+
+179
+00:14:30,350 --> 00:14:35,830
+مقوية بيحولونا نسبة مقوية واحد في المية طبعا واحد
+
+180
+00:14:35,830 --> 00:14:40,530
+في المية من قيمة ايش؟ من قيمة المبنى يعني مثلا
+
+181
+00:14:40,530 --> 00:14:44,230
+واحد في المية لو كان سعر ال mobile مية دولار نضرب
+
+182
+00:14:44,230 --> 00:14:48,870
+واحد في المية ضرب مية و سوى ايش؟ واحد لو كان قيمة
+
+183
+00:14:48,870 --> 00:14:54,240
+ال mobile ميتين دولار نضرب واحد في الميةبتساوى
+
+184
+00:14:54,240 --> 00:14:58,620
+اتنين واحدة كذا طيب هذا احنا بالمثال ال .. ال ..
+
+185
+00:14:58,620 --> 00:15:02,280
+ال .. عشان تفهموا الأمور كيف تمشي طيب the .. the
+
+186
+00:15:02,280 --> 00:15:06,960
+banks .. هاه؟ لأ
+
+187
+00:15:06,960 --> 00:15:10,940
+احنا في نفس اللحظة هتم الاتفاق اه يعني لأ نفس
+
+188
+00:15:10,940 --> 00:15:13,900
+اللحظة انا ابيع ال mobile و في نفس اللحظة اشتريه
+
+189
+00:15:13,900 --> 00:15:17,980
+بكرا طبعا ليش احنا السبب ان احنا استخدمنا الطريقة
+
+190
+00:15:17,980 --> 00:15:21,380
+هذه لأن انا استخدمت ال mobile اكم يوم انا استخدمت
+
+191
+00:15:21,380 --> 00:15:25,940
+الطريقة هذه اكم يومover the night ايه سميها over
+
+192
+00:15:25,940 --> 00:15:29,680
+the night يعني بس مرور الليل طب نعطي مثال how the
+
+193
+00:15:29,680 --> 00:15:33,360
+investors use this كيف المستثمرين بيستخدموا الكلام
+
+194
+00:15:33,360 --> 00:15:37,840
+هذا نعطيكوا مثال ومثال هذا تستخدم البنوك واقعي
+
+195
+00:15:37,840 --> 00:15:48,040
+okay طيب
+
+196
+00:15:48,040 --> 00:15:54,090
+لو عندنا مثال البنك العربيعارفين ال bank العربي
+
+197
+00:15:54,090 --> 00:16:02,370
+اه؟ Arab Bank ال Arab Bank موجود عنده cash طلعوا
+
+198
+00:16:02,370 --> 00:16:10,010
+ال asset عشرة مليون دولار asset بال cash tomorrow
+
+199
+00:16:10,010 --> 00:16:20,430
+اللي هو بكرا محتاجين يدفعوا رواتب للسلطة رواتب
+
+200
+00:16:20,430 --> 00:16:25,450
+السلطة بتدفع بالشكل ولا بالدولار؟بالشكل okay اذا
+
+201
+00:16:25,450 --> 00:16:30,630
+ال .. البنك العرب شو بحتاج عنده عشرة مليون دولار
+
+202
+00:16:30,630 --> 00:16:37,110
+بديوا يحولهم لشكل okay اذا tomorrow اتبعوا معايا
+
+203
+00:16:37,110 --> 00:16:44,490
+بالمثال tomorrow the Arab bank needs okay شكل
+
+204
+00:16:44,490 --> 00:16:51,230
+بحتاج شكل عشانيعطي الموظفين راتبهم طب عنده two
+
+205
+00:16:51,230 --> 00:16:54,390
+options زي ما حكينا فكرة ال mobile يروح يبيع ال
+
+206
+00:16:54,390 --> 00:16:59,030
+mobile okay و يستنى بينما يعطي الموظفين راتبهم
+
+207
+00:16:59,030 --> 00:17:02,090
+بعدين بيجيلوا فلوس و بروح بشتري الدولارات كام مرة
+
+208
+00:17:02,090 --> 00:17:06,750
+و هذه حكينا فيها ايش فيها مخاطر هيدفع فلوس كتير
+
+209
+00:17:06,750 --> 00:17:10,750
+خلينا نمشي نشوف كيف ال two options ممشوا مع بعض
+
+210
+00:17:10,750 --> 00:17:17,670
+ناخد ال option oneoption one option one بلي يحول
+
+211
+00:17:17,670 --> 00:17:23,630
+العشرة مليون لكم لشكل رأسه يقول العشرة مليون ضرب
+
+212
+00:17:23,630 --> 00:17:31,610
+تلاتة فاصلة واحد وسبعين او تلاتة فاصلة سبعين حكى
+
+213
+00:17:31,610 --> 00:17:36,110
+okay فراحه لما حولهم كام تلاتة فاصلة سبعين ضرب
+
+214
+00:17:36,110 --> 00:17:38,910
+عشرة مليون بطلع سبعة و تلاتين مليون
+
+215
+00:17:41,740 --> 00:17:44,460
+صار عنده في الرصيد تبعه بدل ما هو عنده عشرة شاكل
+
+216
+00:17:44,460 --> 00:17:48,020
+صار عنده سبعة و تلاتين عشرة مليون دولار صار عنده
+
+217
+00:17:48,020 --> 00:17:54,780
+سبعة و تلاتين مليون شاكل بيعت
+
+218
+00:17:54,780 --> 00:17:58,380
+الموظفين راتبهم طيب احنا مازلنا ب option one
+
+219
+00:17:58,380 --> 00:18:04,010
+مادخلش الrabies chase agreementطبعا مركزين معايا
+
+220
+00:18:04,010 --> 00:18:09,550
+طيب هلأ صار عنده فلوس البنك العربي يعني لإن
+
+221
+00:18:09,550 --> 00:18:12,850
+الموظفين قبلات شو بيساوي بيروح بيشتري من ال .. من
+
+222
+00:18:12,850 --> 00:18:15,850
+المحلات و كذا و بيدفعوا فلوس فالمحلات بيرجعوا
+
+223
+00:18:15,850 --> 00:18:20,370
+الفلوس لمن؟ للبنك فصار عنده الفلوس قيمتهم مشاكل
+
+224
+00:18:20,370 --> 00:18:25,050
+فراح بده يشري دولار عشان يرجع رصيده لإيش؟ للدولار
+
+225
+00:18:25,050 --> 00:18:27,870
+بده يشري دولار راح على السوق okay جالهم مقدداش
+
+226
+00:18:27,870 --> 00:18:30,990
+الدولار حكوله في السوق احنا الدولار تبعناه تلاتة
+
+227
+00:18:30,990 --> 00:18:37,100
+فاصلة خمسة سبعيندولار ع الشاكل فإيش راح يسوي؟ راح
+
+228
+00:18:37,100 --> 00:18:44,360
+يجيب .. كام محتاج شاكل يدفع؟ هيدفع سبعة و تلاتين و
+
+229
+00:18:44,360 --> 00:18:50,740
+خمسمية ألف شاكل كام خسر البنك العربي؟ نص مليون
+
+230
+00:18:50,740 --> 00:18:54,980
+شاكل خسر بنات هذه شغلات حقية بتصير في البنوك بس
+
+231
+00:18:54,980 --> 00:18:58,260
+طبعا البنك عنده ال option two ماعندهش option one
+
+232
+00:18:59,310 --> 00:19:04,110
+Okay في ال option one the bank is taking risk اتخذ
+
+233
+00:19:04,110 --> 00:19:08,190
+مخاطر و ممكن السعر ينزل و يكسب ال bank بس احنا
+
+234
+00:19:08,190 --> 00:19:12,070
+خلينا ناخد the worst case ناخد ال worst case يعني
+
+235
+00:19:12,070 --> 00:19:17,530
+أسوأ إشي ممكن يصير مع ال bank طيب إذا الخسر في
+
+236
+00:19:17,530 --> 00:19:24,070
+الحالة هذه 500 ألف لأنه أخد شوفوا أخد 37 مليون و
+
+237
+00:19:24,070 --> 00:19:28,790
+لما بده يشتريبدو يدفع 37.5 مليون فصار عنده ناقص
+
+238
+00:19:28,790 --> 00:19:36,070
+500 اللي هو نص مليون شكل طيب في عندهم مدير شاطر
+
+239
+00:19:36,070 --> 00:19:39,450
+فبيحكي لهم ليش why we go through this خلنا نروح
+
+240
+00:19:39,450 --> 00:19:45,630
+على option two option two اللي
+
+241
+00:19:45,630 --> 00:19:49,630
+هو خسر لأن
+
+242
+00:19:49,630 --> 00:19:55,980
+الدولار ارتفع فصار عنده risk لأن الأرصداءعنده
+
+243
+00:19:55,980 --> 00:20:00,060
+بالدولار فهو بده يحفظ فيها بالدولار فاحتياجه
+
+244
+00:20:00,060 --> 00:20:04,340
+للشاكل احتياج يومين طلعت بس فليش انه انا اروح احول
+
+245
+00:20:04,340 --> 00:20:08,360
+شاكل و اظل رصيدي بالشاكل و اخسر فهو هيستخدم option
+
+246
+00:20:08,360 --> 00:20:11,600
+2 في الحالة هذه الحالة اخذها لو ما اخذني ماتخذش
+
+247
+00:20:11,600 --> 00:20:15,160
+منك انت عاد الشراء هذه الحالة لما بدتش .. بالظبط
+
+248
+00:20:15,160 --> 00:20:18,880
+option option one يعني مافيش اعادة شراء في option
+
+249
+00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:21,460
+two ايوة
+
+250
+00:20:22,840 --> 00:20:27,020
+هيكسب اه ماهي فيه ان انا احتمال ربح و احتمال مخاطر
+
+251
+00:20:27,020 --> 00:20:31,080
+انا أخدت احتمالات الأسوأ طبعا البنوك لما بتبني
+
+252
+00:20:31,080 --> 00:20:35,180
+قراراتها بتاخد احتمالات الأسوأ عشان هم مايدخلوش في
+
+253
+00:20:35,180 --> 00:20:39,740
+مخاطر لأنه يحافظوا على أموال المودعين ناخد option
+
+254
+00:20:39,740 --> 00:20:45,020
+2 نروح
+
+255
+00:20:45,020 --> 00:20:49,360
+على option 2 و نشوف option
+
+256
+00:20:49,360 --> 00:20:49,660
+2
+
+257
+00:20:55,180 --> 00:21:03,400
+فى option two هيجى طبعا هو اش هيعمل بده يشتري طبعا
+
+258
+00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:12,880
+شراق شاكل today بده يشتري شاكل today مظبوط and
+
+259
+00:21:12,880 --> 00:21:18,240
+sell it tomorrow بده
+
+260
+00:21:18,240 --> 00:21:23,250
+يشتري الشاكل اليومو يبيعوا بكرا أو العكس اللي هو
+
+261
+00:21:23,250 --> 00:21:27,730
+إذا بديش الشركة اللي بده يبيع إياش بيع دولار today
+
+262
+00:21:27,730 --> 00:21:36,650
+and sell and buy دولار طبعا هنا بيع هنا sell
+
+263
+00:21:36,650 --> 00:21:48,350
+dollar today و buy dollar tomorrow، مظبوط؟ ده
+
+264
+00:21:48,350 --> 00:21:55,550
+بنشوفراح اتصل في البنك فلسطين و حكاله احنا بدنا ..
+
+265
+00:21:55,550 --> 00:22:03,790
+بدنا شاكل احنا دولار بدنا شاكل بس we need this for
+
+266
+00:22:03,790 --> 00:22:07,390
+one night بدنا اياها اليوم واحد او two nights
+
+267
+00:22:08,060 --> 00:22:11,600
+هيشوفوا قصير أجل عشان هيك we call this money
+
+268
+00:22:11,600 --> 00:22:15,600
+market short term يعني هم الجماعة محتاجينها ليومين
+
+269
+00:22:15,600 --> 00:22:18,160
+تلاتة فدهش يروح ويحطوا حاله في مخاطر يروح يبيع
+
+270
+00:22:18,160 --> 00:22:21,700
+الدولار وينتظر الأسعار كيف هتسير و بعدين يكون في
+
+271
+00:22:21,700 --> 00:22:25,600
+مخاطر بيحكي له okay اتصل في بانك فلسطين كام السعر
+
+272
+00:22:25,600 --> 00:22:31,680
+بيحكي له أربع فاصلة زي واحد وسبعين لما
+
+273
+00:22:31,680 --> 00:22:37,730
+بده يبيع الدولار يبيع الدولار بيع الدولارطبعا
+
+274
+00:22:37,730 --> 00:22:42,790
+بديشريه بكرا شراء الدولار بدل
+
+275
+00:22:42,790 --> 00:22:46,270
+ما يحكيله اربعة فاصلة مثلا اتنين وسبعين او واحد
+
+276
+00:22:46,270 --> 00:22:50,410
+وسبعين بيحكيله اسمع نستخدمها repo rate نستخدم repo
+
+277
+00:22:50,410 --> 00:22:53,970
+rate بعطيك repo rate ايش ال repo rate انه انا
+
+278
+00:22:53,970 --> 00:22:58,810
+ببيعك الدولار ببيع الدولار الآن و بشري منك بكرا
+
+279
+00:22:58,810 --> 00:23:04,080
+مثلاأو بالنسبة للبنك العربي بروح ببيع الدولار على
+
+280
+00:23:04,080 --> 00:23:08,000
+الشاكل بيع دولار أخد شاكل و بكرا بيروح بشري
+
+281
+00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:11,720
+الدولار من بنك فلسطين بيحكي له أنا بحسب لك repo
+
+282
+00:23:11,720 --> 00:23:16,760
+rate لا أنا بتتغلب ولا أنت بتتغلب بحسب لك repo
+
+283
+00:23:16,760 --> 00:23:23,700
+rate مثلا واحد بالألف واحد
+
+284
+00:23:23,700 --> 00:23:29,020
+بالألف خلاص بحسبله نسبة مقويةواحد بالألف كل الصفقة
+
+285
+00:23:29,020 --> 00:23:34,080
+عليها واحد بالألف يعني العشرة مليون وضربيهم في
+
+286
+00:23:34,080 --> 00:23:43,240
+واحد في الألف كم بيطلعوا عشرة مليون نضربهم في واحد
+
+287
+00:23:43,240 --> 00:23:47,380
+في الألف كم
+
+288
+00:23:47,380 --> 00:23:51,300
+بيطلع ضربوهم
+
+289
+00:23:51,300 --> 00:23:52,180
+عندكم بالأقل الحاسبة
+
+290
+00:23:58,290 --> 00:24:07,930
+واحد بالألف ضرب عشرة مليون ميت .. ميت دولار لأ
+
+291
+00:24:07,930 --> 00:24:12,690
+عادة بالواحد بالألف ميت دولار يعني إذا ميت دولار
+
+292
+00:24:12,690 --> 00:24:18,290
+هذه
+
+293
+00:24:18,290 --> 00:24:25,290
+واحد بالمية لما تضرب في المية okay واحد بالمية في
+
+294
+00:24:25,290 --> 00:24:29,200
+المية okay تطلع واحد بال .. بالعشر تلاتOkay يعني
+
+295
+00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:34,940
+خلاني واحد في المية واحد في المية بدنا إياها واحد
+
+296
+00:24:34,940 --> 00:24:38,100
+في المية في ال .. okay واحد بالألف مظبوط هيك صح؟
+
+297
+00:24:38,100 --> 00:24:47,740
+كام بتطلع مية دولار؟ ماتطلعش واحد هاي
+
+298
+00:24:47,740 --> 00:24:53,140
+ال Excel انتبهوا
+
+299
+00:24:53,140 --> 00:24:53,280
+يعني
+
+300
+00:25:00,150 --> 00:25:07,410
+عنا كام؟ عشرة مليون، مظبوط؟ هاي العشرة مليون وعنا
+
+301
+00:25:07,410 --> 00:25:17,590
+واحد بالألف، هاي واحد بالألف بتساوي ضرب بتلع عشر
+
+302
+00:25:17,590 --> 00:25:24,550
+تلاف دولار بتلع عشر تلاف دولار okay يعني عشان أسهل
+
+303
+00:25:24,550 --> 00:25:24,990
+عليكم
+
+304
+00:25:31,640 --> 00:25:34,740
+Okay بيساوي كام؟ عشرة مليون دولار، فيها بيطلع عشر
+
+305
+00:25:34,740 --> 00:25:39,660
+تلاف دولار، طب في الحالة الأولى كام خسر؟ خمسمائة
+
+306
+00:25:39,660 --> 00:25:43,920
+ألف، في الحالة الأولى كام؟ نص مليون، في الحالة
+
+307
+00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:49,600
+التانية كام؟ عشر تلاف، انه أحسن؟ أحسن عشر تلافيعني
+
+308
+00:25:49,600 --> 00:25:54,640
+فاسر هنا عشر تلاف شيكل هنا بالشيكل و هنا خمسمية
+
+309
+00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:59,740
+وبالتالي بتصير عنده أحسن أنه يدخل في السوق ال ..
+
+310
+00:25:59,740 --> 00:26:03,080
+ال .. ال agreement أحسن طب هلأ كيف راح يصير في
+
+311
+00:26:03,080 --> 00:26:07,280
+البنك؟ الراح يصير في البنك كالتالي بنك فلسطين ..
+
+312
+00:26:07,280 --> 00:26:15,880
+بنك العربي انتوا معاه Arab Bank هيرسل دولار ل bank
+
+313
+00:26:15,880 --> 00:26:23,490
+of Palestineانتفعوا اتجاهات القسم هذا today الbank
+
+314
+00:26:23,490 --> 00:26:28,790
+of palestine هيعطي البنك العرب ايش؟ هيعطي شكل هو
+
+315
+00:26:28,790 --> 00:26:37,070
+هيرمز الشكل للبنك العربي هذا today tomorrow ال
+
+316
+00:26:37,070 --> 00:26:45,030
+arab bank هيروح يعطي ال bank فلسطين ايش هيعطيه
+
+317
+00:26:45,030 --> 00:26:52,970
+بكرا؟هيعطيه شاكل ايوة هيعطيه شاكل وبنك فلسطين ايش
+
+318
+00:26:52,970 --> 00:26:56,830
+هيعطيه؟ هيعطيه دولار اتطلعوا على الدولار، الدولار
+
+319
+00:26:56,830 --> 00:27:02,290
+رجع لمين؟ شوفوا الدولار رجع للبنك العربي okay هذا
+
+320
+00:27:02,290 --> 00:27:07,110
+بيسموه ال repair chase طيب، ماسألناش سؤال طب بنك
+
+321
+00:27:07,110 --> 00:27:12,900
+فلسطين يعني شو استفاد من هذا الموضوع؟استفاد من عشر
+
+322
+00:27:12,900 --> 00:27:18,640
+تلات لكن في نفس اللحظة احتمال يخسر فشو راح يسوي
+
+323
+00:27:18,640 --> 00:27:25,060
+بنك فلسطين؟ بنك فلسطين هيعمل شغلة اسمها reverse
+
+324
+00:27:25,060 --> 00:27:31,780
+reverse chase هيعمل reverse مع مين؟ مع بنك آخرمع
+
+325
+00:27:31,780 --> 00:27:34,980
+بنك تاني، يعني ممكن يعملها مع Deutsch Bank، مع ال
+
+326
+00:27:34,980 --> 00:27:38,120
+HSBC Bank، ممكن يعملها مع مثلا ال housing bank،
+
+327
+00:27:38,120 --> 00:27:41,360
+بنك الإسكان و هكذا، كل بنك هيروح يعكسها مع بنك آخر
+
+328
+00:27:41,360 --> 00:27:44,300
+عشان يعملوا allocation لل risk أو transferring لل
+
+329
+00:27:44,300 --> 00:27:47,780
+risk اللي أخدناها ب chapter one، فاكرين لما حكينا
+
+330
+00:27:47,780 --> 00:27:54,800
+transferring لل risk؟ طيب، هلأ ال bank فلسطين إيش
+
+331
+00:27:54,800 --> 00:27:58,600
+هيسوي؟ يلا مين يحكي لل bank فلسطين إيش هيسوي؟مع
+
+332
+00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:01,620
+البنك العربي خلاص طب هو بنك فلسطين عشان يحمي ظهره
+
+333
+00:28:01,620 --> 00:28:06,900
+شو روح يسوي؟ في
+
+334
+00:28:06,900 --> 00:28:10,180
+.. في اليوم الأول شو حيسوي؟ في .. today هلأ هو صار
+
+335
+00:28:10,180 --> 00:28:16,900
+عنده .. باليوم الأول صار عنده دولار، مظبوط؟ هيروح
+
+336
+00:28:16,900 --> 00:28:20,760
+إيش يسوي بنك فلسطين؟ يلا هشوف
+
+337
+00:28:27,240 --> 00:28:32,920
+خلصنا البنك العرب وبنك الفلسطيني خلصناه هلأ
+
+338
+00:28:32,920 --> 00:28:37,660
+في اليوم الأول بنك الفلسطيني عنده دولار صح؟ في
+
+339
+00:28:37,660 --> 00:28:43,360
+اليوم الأول ايوة بيعملها مع بنك تاني مثلا بنك
+
+340
+00:28:43,360 --> 00:28:51,920
+الإسلامي شو هيعمل معاه؟ بيع دولار هيبيع دولارو
+
+341
+00:28:51,920 --> 00:28:57,640
+يشتري شاكل، شراء شاكل و تاني يوم ايش هيسوي؟ خليني
+
+342
+00:28:57,640 --> 00:29:00,420
+اتبيع الدولار، اتبيع الدولار اليوم، هيروح يشتريه
+
+343
+00:29:00,420 --> 00:29:07,040
+بكرا، شراء دولار، هاي طبعا، اتلاحظوا بيع دولار،
+
+344
+00:29:07,040 --> 00:29:11,740
+شراء .. شراء دولار بكرا، فصار العملية reverse،
+
+345
+00:29:11,740 --> 00:29:15,140
+يعني دائما هو بعكس العملية مع بنك .. مع بنك آخر
+
+346
+00:29:17,330 --> 00:29:21,330
+Okay هذه بيسموها reverse لاحظوا لما احنا حكينا على
+
+347
+00:29:21,330 --> 00:29:24,970
+ال ..
+
+348
+00:29:24,970 --> 00:29:32,770
+repos and reverses قرأتوها هان repos and reverses
+
+349
+00:29:32,770 --> 00:29:38,770
+reverses كل عملية بيعملها bank أخر عكسها okay
+
+350
+00:29:41,070 --> 00:29:44,130
+يعني نفسنا لو نرجع لفكرة ال mobile لما انا باعت ال
+
+351
+00:29:44,130 --> 00:29:49,530
+mobile الطرف الآخر هيروح يعكس العملية يبيعه مع طرف
+
+352
+00:29:49,530 --> 00:29:54,590
+آخر و هكذا لو بعدين تاني يوم هترجع الأمور تتكرر
+
+353
+00:29:54,590 --> 00:29:58,150
+بالطريقة العكسية هذا بيسموها repurchase agreement
+
+354
+00:29:58,150 --> 00:30:01,030
+طب علشان بيستخدم ال repurchase agreement عشان ت
+
+355
+00:30:01,030 --> 00:30:08,330
+allocate risk و تخفض المخاطر okay مرض عليكم
+
+356
+00:30:08,330 --> 00:30:10,190
+بالحياتكم العملية مثل هالأفر
+
+357
+00:30:14,460 --> 00:30:18,260
+طبعا هي بالأسواق المالية معروفة يعنى طبعا هلأ نرجع
+
+358
+00:30:18,260 --> 00:30:21,920
+للسؤال ال ribos مين بحدد ال ribo هل بنك فلسطين هو
+
+359
+00:30:21,920 --> 00:30:27,360
+بخاطره يحسب ال ribo ال ribo يتم تحديده دوليا يتم
+
+360
+00:30:27,360 --> 00:30:35,740
+تحديده إيش دوليا كيف يتم تحديده دوليا يتم
+
+361
+00:30:35,740 --> 00:30:38,640
+تحديده حسب أسعار شغل اسمها library
+
+362
+00:30:41,820 --> 00:30:48,320
+حسب سعر ال LIBOR دوليا LIBOR
+
+363
+00:30:48,320 --> 00:30:55,620
+ايش معناه LIBOR LIBOR اجت من البنوك في لندن بتقترض
+
+364
+00:30:55,620 --> 00:31:03,580
+من بعضها يعني مثلا bank HSBC bank بده فلوس الليلة
+
+365
+00:31:03,580 --> 00:31:08,120
+هذه لبقرةفأمامه بده يقترض فبالجائش للبنك المركزي
+
+366
+00:31:08,120 --> 00:31:11,340
+اللي هو ال central bank ال central bank of England
+
+367
+00:31:11,340 --> 00:31:16,700
+فبروح بتداين من بنك آخر لمدة يوم أو يومين فالبنك
+
+368
+00:31:16,700 --> 00:31:20,620
+المركزي صار يحدد أسعار أن البنوك تتداين من بعضها
+
+369
+00:31:20,620 --> 00:31:24,840
+فبيسموه LIBOR London Interbanking Over Rate
+
+370
+00:31:24,840 --> 00:31:31,900
+فبيسموه London Interbank Over
+
+371
+00:31:31,900 --> 00:31:33,840
+Rate
+
+372
+00:31:36,800 --> 00:31:40,280
+اللي هاد نجحت في .. في .. في بريطانيا صار تعمّم
+
+373
+00:31:40,280 --> 00:31:43,800
+على كل العالم، يعني صار ال bank فلسطين مثلا، ال
+
+374
+00:31:43,800 --> 00:31:47,260
+bank العربي، ال bank ال .. أي bank في القردن، bank
+
+375
+00:31:47,260 --> 00:31:50,600
+في مصر، في أوروبا، في الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية،
+
+376
+00:31:50,600 --> 00:31:54,700
+صاروا يستخدموا ال Iborيستخدموا إيش؟ ال library
+
+377
+00:31:54,700 --> 00:31:58,340
+عشان هم مايجيش مثلا بنك فلسطيني يحكيله أنا هذا ال
+
+378
+00:31:58,340 --> 00:32:01,120
+repo تبعي ييجي بنك آخر يحكيله ال repo أعلى
+
+379
+00:32:01,120 --> 00:32:07,180
+وبالتالي صاروا عساسي وحده الفوائد فصاروا يستخدموا
+
+380
+00:32:07,180 --> 00:32:11,340
+ال library اللي هو London Interbank Overrate سموه
+
+381
+00:32:11,340 --> 00:32:14,320
+library معروف روحوا ادخلوا مثلا على Google اكتبوا
+
+382
+00:32:14,320 --> 00:32:17,800
+library هتشوفوا ال library وهذا ال library updated
+
+383
+00:32:17,800 --> 00:32:23,430
+every nightupdated every night يعني كل ليلة بيتغير
+
+384
+00:32:23,430 --> 00:32:29,290
+تمام هذا بيسموه ال library و
+
+385
+00:32:29,290 --> 00:32:31,510
+بناء على ال library كمان بيحسبوا القروض و بيحسبوا
+
+386
+00:32:31,510 --> 00:32:36,530
+الودائع و بيحسبوا شغلات كبيرة فيا ريت تكونوا هيك
+
+387
+00:32:36,530 --> 00:32:39,750
+يعني بال free time تبعكم بس just google library
+
+388
+00:32:39,750 --> 00:32:43,190
+and read around library how banks و هذا
+
+389
+00:32:43,190 --> 00:32:46,270
+international standard خدوا بأكم يعني كل البلوك في
+
+390
+00:32:46,270 --> 00:32:53,080
+العالم كلها بدون استثناء تستخدم ال libraryOkay فى
+
+391
+00:32:53,080 --> 00:33:06,180
+حد عندى سؤال على ال repos ال
+
+392
+00:33:06,180 --> 00:33:09,640
+federal funds يعنى لإنه مش احنا مابنستخدمش ال
+
+393
+00:33:09,640 --> 00:33:12,300
+federal funds هذا مرتبط فى الولايات المتحدة
+
+394
+00:33:12,300 --> 00:33:18,060
+الأمريكية okay هذا ال federal funds مشبه ال ..
+
+395
+00:33:18,060 --> 00:33:23,500
+بشبه ال over mice loansيعني البنوك لما بتتدايع من
+
+396
+00:33:23,500 --> 00:33:28,900
+بعض القانون بسمح للبنوك أن هي تتدايع من بعضها لأن
+
+397
+00:33:28,900 --> 00:33:32,320
+ال central bank is considered as the last resource
+
+398
+00:33:33,070 --> 00:33:36,050
+يعني المقرد الأخير أخدته الكلام هذا أو بتعرفوه دي
+
+399
+00:33:36,050 --> 00:33:39,190
+هو طبعا الملايك الاخير فممنوع البنوك تتصل في البنك
+
+400
+00:33:39,190 --> 00:33:44,330
+المركزي في طلب السيولة النخدية أو مثلا انا محتاج ك
+
+401
+00:33:44,330 --> 00:33:50,710
+مثلا نحكي city bank بكرا عنده صفقة بدي أعملها راح
+
+402
+00:33:50,710 --> 00:33:54,350
+اتطلع القرص ده تبعته ووجد انه city bank بحتاج مثلا
+
+403
+00:33:54,350 --> 00:33:59,110
+one مليار واحد مليار بده بس بده ياهم ليومين و
+
+404
+00:33:59,110 --> 00:34:04,340
+بعدين هجيله فلوسفبدل ما يقترض فبروح بحكي مع البنوك
+
+405
+00:34:04,340 --> 00:34:07,860
+و بستخدموا ال library بستخدموا ال federal funds
+
+406
+00:34:07,860 --> 00:34:11,520
+فال federal funds هذا يستخدم للإخراج بين البنوك
+
+407
+00:34:11,520 --> 00:34:20,020
+طبعا كيف بيستخدموا؟ شوفوا كيف بيستخدموا البنك
+
+408
+00:34:20,020 --> 00:34:27,140
+المركزي كل بنك من البنوك بنك A مثلا و بنك C
+
+409
+00:34:30,700 --> 00:34:34,100
+بكونوا محتفظين في حسابات لدى إيش؟ لدى ال central
+
+410
+00:34:34,100 --> 00:34:37,700
+bank ال central bank اللي في الولايات المتحدة إيش
+
+411
+00:34:37,700 --> 00:34:42,980
+بيسموه؟ بيسموه the federal reserve bank federal
+
+412
+00:34:42,980 --> 00:34:46,020
+reserve bank اللي هو البنك الفيدرالي .. البنك
+
+413
+00:34:46,020 --> 00:34:48,640
+الاحتياطي الفيدرالي الأمريكي بالنسبة إحنا في
+
+414
+00:34:48,640 --> 00:34:51,680
+السلطة الفلسطينية إيش بيسميه؟ بيسميه the monetary
+
+415
+00:34:51,680 --> 00:34:55,740
+authority .. palestinian monetary authority اللي
+
+416
+00:34:55,740 --> 00:34:58,440
+هو سلطة النخدة الفلسطينية بالنسبة لمصر إيش بيسميه؟
+
+417
+00:34:59,420 --> 00:35:02,260
+اللي هو البنك المركزي المصري بالنسبة للسعودية شو
+
+418
+00:35:02,260 --> 00:35:08,240
+بنسميه لأ اسمه سلطة النخد السعودي خلاص كل واحد هو
+
+419
+00:35:08,240 --> 00:35:12,080
+بيعمل مثابة البنك المركزي بالنسبة للأوروبا اللي هو
+
+420
+00:35:12,080 --> 00:35:15,680
+Europe Central Bank بالنسبة للولايات المتحدة
+
+421
+00:35:15,680 --> 00:35:18,280
+بيسموها Federal Reserve Bank فال Federal Reserve
+
+422
+00:35:18,280 --> 00:35:21,940
+Bank Federal Reserve Bank كل بنك من هالبنوك هدول
+
+423
+00:35:21,940 --> 00:35:28,880
+بيكون محتفظ في أرصدأ عشان تشوف كيف ال fundsالأرصدة
+
+424
+00:35:28,880 --> 00:35:32,400
+هذه لما البنوك تتدين من بعضها بتدينه من خلال البنك
+
+425
+00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:37,940
+المركزي كل بنك من البنوك هذا بيحفظ في حسابات البنك
+
+426
+00:35:37,940 --> 00:35:43,860
+هذا بده فلوس بنك A is in deficit عنده عجز فهياخد
+
+427
+00:35:43,860 --> 00:35:48,800
+من البنك اللي عنده surplus فاطل ايش راح يصير؟ راح
+
+428
+00:35:48,800 --> 00:35:58,920
+يصير البنك A عنده عجز minus وبنك C عنده plusالبنك
+
+429
+00:35:58,920 --> 00:36:05,200
+اللي عنده plus هياخد فائدة والبنك اللي عنده عاجز
+
+430
+00:36:05,200 --> 00:36:09,580
+هيدفع فائدة فلما سي البلوك تتداي من بعضها جزء من
+
+431
+00:36:09,580 --> 00:36:22,440
+الفلوس تبع بنك C هتروح ل بنك A يغطيه معاها طبعا
+
+432
+00:36:22,440 --> 00:36:26,580
+هيتم احتساب هذا المبلغ اللي هيروح بنحسب عليه اللي
+
+433
+00:36:26,580 --> 00:36:33,670
+يسمونه federalfund rates فائدة،
+
+434
+00:36:33,670 --> 00:36:37,330
+ليه فائدة؟ هيدفع عليه فائدة، okay؟ هيدفع عليه
+
+435
+00:36:37,330 --> 00:36:40,560
+فائدةنفس الشيء اللي عندنا في مناطق السلطة
+
+436
+00:36:40,560 --> 00:36:44,440
+الفلسطينية كل بنك من البنوك بيحتفظ في حساب لدى
+
+437
+00:36:44,440 --> 00:36:47,780
+سلطة النخدة الفلسطينية وممكن البنوك تدعم بعضها
+
+438
+00:36:47,780 --> 00:36:51,900
+ويتم احتساب فائدة بتتحددها سلطة النخدة الفلسطينية
+
+439
+00:36:51,900 --> 00:36:54,960
+طبعا سلطة النخدة الفلسطينية لأنه مافيش عندنا عملة
+
+440
+00:36:54,960 --> 00:36:58,740
+شكل عملة جنيه فلسطيني فبروحوا بيحسبوا بيحسبوا اللي
+
+441
+00:36:58,740 --> 00:37:02,220
+هو ممكن ال federal fund rates بيحسبوا اللي هو ال
+
+442
+00:37:02,220 --> 00:37:07,320
+federal fund rates بالدولار فهذا بيسموه ال federal
+
+443
+00:37:07,320 --> 00:37:16,170
+fund ratesلأن البنوك تتدايع من بعضها خلصنا؟
+
+444
+00:37:16,170 --> 00:37:21,230
+okay خلاص نجف عند هذا الحد عشان المرة الجاية بنحكي
+
+445
+00:37:21,230 --> 00:37:25,150
+عن ال capital markets المرة الجاية بتحضروا ال
+
+446
+00:37:25,150 --> 00:37:27,750
+capital markets okay يعطوكوا بالعافية
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/SyEGhcuMf7Y.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/SyEGhcuMf7Y.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..e02ae9001a3d7efb51bf9ea646b697e0668e5e9b
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/SyEGhcuMf7Y.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,2388 @@
+1
+00:00:21,620 --> 00:00:24,980
+اللقاء الفات I left an unanswered question regarding
+
+2
+00:00:24,980 --> 00:00:28,060
+what it means derivatives what it means 
+
+3
+00:00:28,060 --> 00:00:33,100
+derivatives معنى المشتقات و أتوقع إنه إن شاء الله
+
+4
+00:00:33,100 --> 00:00:40,800
+يكون في إجابة عندكم بالمعنى المشتقات، في حل؟
+
+5
+00:00:40,800 --> 00:00:44,440
+مابديش بس أشوف تلت أربعة بنات اللي أمامي هم اللي
+
+6
+00:00:44,440 --> 00:00:48,160
+بيحكوا، مابدي أشوف كمان اللي وراها أو أنا ممكن
+
+7
+00:00:48,160 --> 00:00:56,100
+أختار من عندي كمان، okay إيش معنى المشتقات؟
+
+8
+00:00:58,540 --> 00:01:03,200
+الو أنت أول شي حكيت إن ال real assets هي الأساس
+
+9
+00:01:03,200 --> 00:01:08,360
+تتبعها بينها ال financial assets ومنها بناخد اللي
+
+10
+00:01:08,360 --> 00:01:11,940
+هو derivatives derivatives اللي هي عبارة عن ال ..
+
+11
+00:01:11,940 --> 00:01:15,940
+so just just one by one you are right first thing
+
+12
+00:01:15,940 --> 00:01:19,840
+it means it is derived from the financial assets
+
+13
+00:01:19,840 --> 00:01:25,100
+just what she said she said that derivatives is
+
+14
+00:01:25,100 --> 00:01:31,300
+driven من الأموال الاجتماعية أو من أسعار الأموال
+
+15
+00:01:31,300 --> 00:01:37,300
+الاجتماعية فهذه هي الأموال الاجتماعية نحن نحرر 
+
+16
+00:01:37,300 --> 00:01:43,920
+الميزانيات من الأموال الاجتماعية ميزانيات حسنا
+
+17
+00:01:43,920 --> 00:01:49,380
+دعونا نعود من مجلس المقابلة السابقة نقول أن
+
+18
+00:01:49,380 --> 00:01:54,680
+الأموال الاجتماعية محررة من ايه؟
+
+19
+00:01:54,770 --> 00:01:57,750
+الاستثمار الاجتماعي ليس مجرد واحد من واحد من واحد
+
+20
+00:01:57,750 --> 00:02:00,390
+من واحد من واحد من واحد من واحد من واحد
+
+21
+00:02:04,350 --> 00:02:08,650
+نعرف بالفعل أن الحيوانات الحقيقية تنتج حيوانات
+
+22
+00:02:08,650 --> 00:02:11,950
+اقتصادية ثم حيوانات اقتصادية تتجارب حيوانات
+
+23
+00:02:11,950 --> 00:02:12,430
+اقتصادية تتجارب حيوانات اقتصادية تتجارب حيوانات
+
+24
+00:02:12,430 --> 00:02:13,210
+اقتصادية تتجارب حيوانات اقتصادية تتجارب حيوانات
+
+25
+00:02:13,210 --> 00:02:14,730
+اقتصادية تتجارب حيوانات اقتصادية تتجارب حيوانات
+
+26
+00:02:14,730 --> 00:02:15,170
+اقتصادية تتجارب حيوانات اقتصادية تتجارب حيوانات
+
+27
+00:02:15,170 --> 00:02:15,370
+اقتصادية تتجارب حيوانات اقتصادية تتجارب حيوانات
+
+28
+00:02:15,370 --> 00:02:22,990
+اقتصادية تتجارب حيوانات اقتصادية 
+
+29
+00:02:22,990 --> 00:02:28,090
+تتج then generate financial asset financial asset
+
+30
+00:02:28,090 --> 00:02:31,110
+generate the derivatives my second question now
+
+31
+00:02:31,110 --> 00:02:34,290
+what are the different types of financial asset of
+
+32
+00:02:34,290 --> 00:02:39,330
+the derivatives what are the main types of
+
+33
+00:02:39,330 --> 00:02:50,670
+derivatives okay options futures and so on
+
+34
+00:02:54,860 --> 00:02:58,140
+Okay, so we have three types of financial of
+
+35
+00:02:58,140 --> 00:03:04,240
+derivatives options futures and as well so in
+
+36
+00:03:04,240 --> 00:03:09,080
+chapter 11, we will have in-depth look on the
+
+37
+00:03:09,080 --> 00:03:13,280
+importance of options futures and the as well so
+
+38
+00:03:13,280 --> 00:03:16,460
+just here you need to have a general idea about
+
+39
+00:03:16,460 --> 00:03:18,720
+the what it means derivatives and why we use
+
+40
+00:03:18,720 --> 00:03:25,210
+derivatives للتفكير فهي مرة أخرى تحريكات من أسعار
+
+41
+00:03:25,210 --> 00:03:31,330
+أخرى من الأمانات مثل الأسعار والمعادلات هذه
+
+42
+00:03:31,330 --> 00:03:35,730
+هي التحريكات الآن السؤال الثاني هو لماذا نستخدم
+
+43
+00:03:35,730 --> 00:03:43,910
+التحريكات؟ لتحرير الرسق لذلك كيف؟ كيف نستطيع تحرير
+
+44
+00:03:43,910 --> 00:03:46,450
+الرسق باستخدام التحريكات؟ هل قمت بتقرير حول هذا؟
+
+45
+00:03:49,450 --> 00:03:53,350
+yeah okay that's fine so if you know this transfer
+
+46
+00:03:53,350 --> 00:03:57,730
+risk this is fine but now how we transfer the risk
+
+47
+00:03:57,730 --> 00:04:05,890
+okay and for whom we transfer the risk let's take
+
+48
+00:04:05,890 --> 00:04:12,590
+a example about how we transfer risk if the
+
+49
+00:04:12,590 --> 00:04:18,190
+company borrow a money you have company A and
+
+50
+00:04:18,190 --> 00:04:31,190
+borrow money by loans from bank okay so now who's
+
+51
+00:04:31,190 --> 00:04:36,330
+taking the risk the bank or the company the bank
+
+52
+00:04:36,330 --> 00:04:40,330
+okay the
+
+53
+00:04:40,330 --> 00:04:44,270
+bank now how the bank transfer the money to
+
+54
+00:04:44,270 --> 00:04:44,930
+someone else
+
+55
+00:04:49,130 --> 00:04:52,530
+this is the this is the idea because now the bank
+
+56
+00:04:52,530 --> 00:04:56,010
+is taking risk so how the bank by using
+
+57
+00:04:56,010 --> 00:04:59,290
+derivatives by using options how the bank can
+
+58
+00:04:59,290 --> 00:05:01,750
+transfer the money or transfer the risk
+
+59
+00:05:17,050 --> 00:05:21,710
+بقى in this case how the bank transfer the .. you
+
+60
+00:05:21,710 --> 00:05:27,770
+are right بقى how the bank transfer the risk money
+
+61
+00:05:27,770 --> 00:05:35,230
+يعني بمثله طبعا شركة هاي يعني ال bank هذا فيه له
+
+62
+00:05:35,230 --> 00:05:40,450
+فلوس في عند ال bank فلوس طبع الشركة هاي يعني ياخدها
+
+63
+00:05:40,450 --> 00:05:45,650
+ايه؟ ال bank هي
+
+64
+00:05:45,650 --> 00:05:50,590
+risk taker هو بتاخد المخاطر، كيف ممكن تنقل المخاطر
+
+65
+00:05:50,590 --> 00:05:56,050
+لواحد اخر؟ خليني شوية نفكر، لما ال bank اعطى قرض ل
+
+66
+00:05:56,050 --> 00:06:00,950
+company ايه؟ طب هلأ مش ال bank لما اعطى القرض؟ فيه
+
+67
+00:06:00,950 --> 00:06:06,620
+ضمانات طيب خليني أفكه فيها ف .. just .. just think
+
+68
+00:06:06,620 --> 00:06:13,160
+if the company A fail to repay the .. the bonds or
+
+69
+00:06:13,160 --> 00:06:17,940
+the .. the loan how the .. the bank ensure to get
+
+70
+00:06:17,940 --> 00:06:21,860
+the money back؟ يعني لو الشركة ماقدرتش تدفع الفلوس
+
+71
+00:06:21,860 --> 00:06:25,120
+بتاعتها، كيف الش .. كيف ال bank بدو .. بدو ياخد
+
+72
+00:06:25,120 --> 00:06:30,340
+فلوسها؟ Okay if the bank fail to pay the collateral
+
+73
+00:06:30,340 --> 00:06:34,480
+collateral يعني الضمانات إذا هذه الشركة فلست وفي
+
+74
+00:06:34,480 --> 00:06:38,920
+ضمانات ومش قادرين نسير الضمانات خلنا بس احنا بنفكر
+
+75
+00:06:38,920 --> 00:06:45,260
+تفكير investment from the investment wise this
+
+76
+00:06:45,260 --> 00:06:52,100
+is one option okay you are right أو just to give
+
+77
+00:06:52,100 --> 00:06:55,360
+you example how we transfer risk we insure the
+
+78
+00:06:55,360 --> 00:07:01,370
+loans عارفين شو معنى insure؟ insure insure نأمن
+
+79
+00:07:01,370 --> 00:07:06,650
+نعمل تأمينات so if the bank if the company fail it
+
+80
+00:07:06,650 --> 00:07:09,510
+means who will pay back the money the insurance
+
+81
+00:07:09,510 --> 00:07:14,470
+company شركات التأمين وبتسأل احنا شفتوا كيف ممكن
+
+82
+00:07:14,470 --> 00:07:19,250
+احنا ال financial derivatives ممكن تساعدنا انه
+
+83
+00:07:19,250 --> 00:07:19,870
+احنا نعمل
+
+84
+00:07:23,200 --> 00:07:27,620
+نقل للخطر من شركة إلى أخرى فالأخير بعد ال
+
+85
+00:07:27,620 --> 00:07:32,180
+insurance company who is taking the risk شركة
+
+86
+00:07:32,180 --> 00:07:36,340
+التأمين شركة التأمين شركة
+
+87
+00:07:36,340 --> 00:07:37,040
+التأمين شركة التأمين شركة التأمين شركة التأمين
+
+88
+00:07:37,040 --> 00:07:37,080
+شركة التأمين شركة التأمين شركة التأمين شركة
+
+89
+00:07:37,080 --> 00:07:37,300
+التأمين شركة التأمين شركة التأمين شركة التأمين
+
+90
+00:07:37,300 --> 00:07:37,400
+شركة التأمين شركة التأمين شركة التأمين شركة
+
+91
+00:07:37,400 --> 00:07:37,440
+التأمين شركة التأمين شركة التأمين شركة التأمين
+
+92
+00:07:37,440 --> 00:07:38,140
+شركة التأمين شركة التأمين شركة التأمين شركة
+
+93
+00:07:38,140 --> 00:07:42,080
+التأمين شركة التأمين شركة التأمين شركة التأمين
+
+94
+00:07:42,080 --> 00:07:45,720
+شركة
+
+95
+00:07:45,720 --> 00:07:50,650
+التأم Okay يعني كيف احنا نعمل كلام هذا هنعمله
+
+96
+00:07:50,650 --> 00:07:55,590
+تفاصيل في ال chapter eleven يعني خلينا نركز ال
+
+97
+00:07:55,590 --> 00:08:00,310
+story لما احنا بنعمل transfer ل ال risk ال .. ال
+
+98
+00:08:00,310 --> 00:08:03,490
+.. ال bank أعطى قرض ل a, a مش قادرين يدفعوا اتخاذ
+
+99
+00:08:03,490 --> 00:08:09,790
+تبعهم فبروح the bank want to protect his bank بدهم
+
+100
+00:08:09,790 --> 00:08:13,530
+يحموا دهورهم so how they do this by using
+
+101
+00:08:13,530 --> 00:08:18,810
+insurance company Okay هذا بيسموه transfer risk
+
+102
+00:08:18,810 --> 00:08:22,730
+sometimes they allocate risk what it means
+
+103
+00:08:22,730 --> 00:08:28,470
+allocate risk يوزع المخاطر so how we derivatives
+
+104
+00:08:28,470 --> 00:08:32,910
+how can be used to allocate risk نوزع المخاطر
+
+105
+00:08:32,910 --> 00:08:39,750
+فكروا في الموضوع احنا
+
+106
+00:08:39,750 --> 00:08:45,510
+عرفنا كيف نقل مخاطر هلأ بكيف نوزع المخاطريعني إيش
+
+107
+00:08:45,510 --> 00:08:49,170
+نوزع المخاطر؟ يعني إذا أنا بخطر بدل ما أنا أتحمل
+
+108
+00:08:49,170 --> 00:08:52,050
+الخطر لحالي from the investment-wise let's other
+
+109
+00:08:52,050 --> 00:08:55,570
+people to consider or to allocate or to share the
+
+110
+00:08:55,570 --> 00:09:02,750
+risk خليهم يساعدوني في تحمل المخاطر Bank المركزي
+
+111
+00:09:02,750 --> 00:09:07,850
+okay it is one possible أو طريقة أخرى مجموعة ملوك
+
+112
+00:09:07,850 --> 00:09:14,020
+ممكن إذا كان مثلا شركة IBM مثلا بدهم قرض بدهم
+
+113
+00:09:14,020 --> 00:09:17,540
+يعملوا investment في new areas in Africa بدهم
+
+114
+00:09:17,540 --> 00:09:21,120
+يستثمروا في جنوب أفريقيا and this is a very high
+
+115
+00:09:21,120 --> 00:09:25,100
+risk environment so what they can do they share
+
+116
+00:09:25,100 --> 00:09:29,920
+risk with other banks بيشاركوا
+
+117
+00:09:29,920 --> 00:09:34,180
+المخاطر مع بنوك أخرى rather just to take the risk
+
+118
+00:09:34,180 --> 00:09:38,300
+you can share the risk with other banks okay so
+
+119
+00:09:38,300 --> 00:09:40,500
+this is what it means transferring risk allocate
+
+120
+00:09:40,500 --> 00:09:41,500
+risk
+
+121
+00:09:45,610 --> 00:09:50,350
+مع بنوك أخرى بدل ما هو ال bank لحاله يتحمل الخطر
+
+122
+00:09:50,350 --> 00:09:54,530
+فبصير بنوك تانية تتشاركوا بس بالعكس في .. في
+
+123
+00:09:54,530 --> 00:09:57,990
+الأولى transfer risk you totally transfer risk to
+
+124
+00:09:57,990 --> 00:10:01,130
+other companies يعني حتى لو في failure هيصير في
+
+125
+00:10:01,130 --> 00:10:04,370
+أيه هيجي ال insurance company أنه هي تتحمل ..
+
+126
+00:10:04,370 --> 00:10:05,810
+تتحمل الخطر عادي
+
+127
+00:10:09,860 --> 00:10:14,720
+هتاخد قرض هي هتتقدم لقرض من بنك نفترض .. لنفترض
+
+128
+00:10:14,720 --> 00:10:19,140
+أنه هتتقدم من .. من بنك فلسطين okay فهلأ بنك
+
+129
+00:10:19,140 --> 00:10:22,560
+فلسطين اللي بيشعر أنه القرض كبير فبروح بيعملوا
+
+130
+00:10:22,560 --> 00:10:26,940
+شغلة اسمها قروض مجمعة قروض إيش؟ مجمعة .. مجمعة هذه
+
+131
+00:10:26,940 --> 00:10:29,900
+بال .. بال finance and banking بتاخدوها فالقرض
+
+132
+00:10:29,900 --> 00:10:32,780
+المجمع هذا أكثر من بنك بيشترك في ال .. في القرض
+
+133
+00:10:32,780 --> 00:10:37,160
+لأنه ال .. ال .. قيمة القرض عالية و مخاطر القرض
+
+134
+00:10:37,160 --> 00:10:41,630
+كمان عالية فبتساعد they are sharing the risk واضحة؟
+
+135
+00:10:41,630 --> 00:10:47,110
+okay فقلنا إيش .. how to use the .. how to use to 
+transfer the risk
+
+136
+00:10:47,110 --> 00:10:51,230
+and what are the other functions of
+
+137
+00:10:51,230 --> 00:10:56,910
+derivatives when the .. in fact .. when the .. لأ،
+
+138
+00:10:56,910 --> 00:11:01,530
+كملي هلأ لو كان في مثلا الشركة A شركة أكبر منها
+
+139
+00:11:01,530 --> 00:11:06,030
+ممكن أنها تساعدها في هذا الأشياء؟أه في حالة أنه ال
+
+140
+00:11:06,030 --> 00:11:09,350
+.. مثلا شركة ال insurance هذه التأمين ممكن إذا
+
+141
+00:11:09,350 --> 00:11:12,330
+كانت شركة صغيرة تروح تعمل إعادة التأمين أه بيمشي
+
+142
+00:11:12,330 --> 00:11:17,290
+الحالة الكلام صحيح طيب في ال derivatives في شغلات
+
+143
+00:11:17,290 --> 00:11:22,050
+ثانية أخرى أو عوامل أخرى بسبب إحنا بنستخدم ال
+
+144
+00:11:22,050 --> 00:11:25,250
+derivatives يعني ليش إحنا بنستخدم ال derivatives
+
+145
+00:11:25,250 --> 00:11:30,010
+أول شيء حكينا لك لأنها بتنقل المخاطر ثاني شغلة أنه
+
+146
+00:11:30,010 --> 00:11:32,630
+بتعمل مشاركة المخاطر ثالث شيء ممكن نسوي
+
+147
+00:11:36,050 --> 00:11:41,210
+فكروا هتج هتج
+
+148
+00:11:41,210 --> 00:11:45,410
+هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج
+
+149
+00:11:45,410 --> 00:11:47,290
+هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج
+
+150
+00:11:47,290 --> 00:11:50,170
+هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج
+
+151
+00:11:50,170 --> 00:11:50,870
+هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج
+
+152
+00:11:50,870 --> 00:11:51,690
+هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج
+
+153
+00:11:51,690 --> 00:12:00,350
+هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج
+
+154
+00:12:00,350 --> 00:12:02,790
+هت
+
+155
+00:12:03,800 --> 00:12:09,520
+هيدج هيدج يعني دفع مخاطر مش transfer risk هي هيدج
+
+156
+00:12:09,520 --> 00:12:12,960
+زي
+
+157
+00:12:12,960 --> 00:12:17,380
+مثال ناخد مثال المرة الفاترة حكينا بدنا نشري سهم
+
+158
+00:12:17,380 --> 00:12:21,180
+نعطي مثال how to use hedge كيف احنا ممكن نستخدم
+
+159
+00:12:21,180 --> 00:12:28,160
+الهيدج المرة
+
+160
+00:12:28,160 --> 00:12:33,000
+الفاترة حكينا اتفقنا انه لو كان سعر السهم عشرين
+
+161
+00:12:33,000 --> 00:12:45,210
+دولار اتفقنا سعره لان احنا اشتريناه على عشرين او
+
+162
+00:12:45,210 --> 00:12:52,610
+بدنا نشتريه على عشرين تثبيت fix على عشرين بس
+
+163
+00:12:52,610 --> 00:12:57,790
+ما معنى فلوس انه نشتري هذا السهم ماعناش فلوس لكن
+
+164
+00:12:57,790 --> 00:13:01,150
+الفلوس متى هتتوفر؟ هتتوفر بعد ما تلت تلت شهور طب
+
+165
+00:13:01,150 --> 00:13:03,850
+احنا هنخاف أنه بعد تلت شهور الأسعار إيش تصير فيها
+
+166
+00:13:03,850 --> 00:13:08,930
+تزيد لأنه إذا زادت الأسعار so we need to pay more
+
+167
+00:13:08,930 --> 00:13:14,750
+than twenty فإيش لازم نسوي؟ بنروح في شغلة اسمها
+
+168
+00:13:14,750 --> 00:13:19,050
+option وتحديدا
+
+169
+00:13:19,050 --> 00:13:24,030
+بال call option call option يعني شراء خيارات طيب
+
+170
+00:13:24,650 --> 00:13:27,390
+بنروح على ال .. ال .. ال financial market بيحكولنا
+
+171
+00:13:27,390 --> 00:13:31,670
+احنا بنطلب two dollar على نعمل fixing ده ال price
+
+172
+00:13:31,670 --> 00:13:35,210
+نثبتلك السعر how they determine two dollar they
+
+173
+00:13:35,210 --> 00:13:38,810
+have a big equation طبعا مش دوركم ان انتوا تعرفوا
+
+174
+00:13:38,810 --> 00:13:43,790
+how to calculate the two dollar لأن هاي في معادلة
+
+175
+00:13:43,790 --> 00:13:46,270
+كبيرة زي من هن والباب المعادلة عشان ايه؟ to
+
+176
+00:13:46,270 --> 00:13:50,070
+calculate how we estimate two dollar يعني كيف نطلع
+
+177
+00:13:50,070 --> 00:13:55,450
+ال two dollar هدوة okay soفبيحكينا ال bank او ال
+
+178
+00:13:55,450 --> 00:13:57,410
+intermediary institutions بيقولنا you have to pay
+
+179
+00:13:57,410 --> 00:14:03,770
+2$ okay fine لناخد two options ال option ان سعر
+
+180
+00:14:03,770 --> 00:14:12,790
+السهم بيطلع نفط ل 26$ او سعر السهم صار 16$ 26$ او
+
+181
+00:14:12,790 --> 00:14:18,290
+16$ هنشوف كيف الهجة ناخد السيناري الأول سعر السهم
+
+182
+00:14:18,290 --> 00:14:20,210
+ارتفع شو هنسوي
+
+183
+00:14:27,710 --> 00:14:35,630
+هنسمع .. هنسمع منكم ايش؟ اتنين دولار هتدفعي
+
+184
+00:14:35,630 --> 00:14:40,650
+يعني عشرين دولار هتدفعي اتنين و عشرين اذا؟ اربع و
+
+185
+00:14:40,650 --> 00:14:45,070
+عشرين ليش اربع و عشرين؟ خليها بس .. خليها بقى حلوة
+
+186
+00:14:45,070 --> 00:14:50,450
+انت ثبتت سعرها لعشرين اه و صار عندى اتنين دولار
+
+187
+00:14:50,450 --> 00:14:55,090
+هدول عربون ال premium صارت اتنين و عشرين مظبوط؟ اه
+
+188
+00:14:55,090 --> 00:15:01,060
+طيب بعدين؟أنا دفعت ال .. دفعت العشرين و هكمل
+
+189
+00:15:01,060 --> 00:15:04,320
+للعشرين دفع .. بدك تدفعيهم بالأقل مثلا اه طب و
+
+190
+00:15:04,320 --> 00:15:07,220
+اتنين و اتنين و عشرين مظبط طب و ايش علاقة الستة و
+
+191
+00:15:07,220 --> 00:15:10,280
+عشرين هذه الزيادة مالناش ده ربع اه السوق ايش
+
+192
+00:15:10,280 --> 00:15:13,100
+هيساوي معاكي السوق ايش هيساوي معاكي يقولك تفضلي
+
+193
+00:15:13,100 --> 00:15:19,440
+هاي أربعة دولار ربحك من هذه ال .. ال .. الصفقة طب
+
+194
+00:15:19,440 --> 00:15:24,760
+نفترض انه احنا مادخلناش في سوق الخيارات نفترض
+
+195
+00:15:24,760 --> 00:15:28,490
+مادخلناش في سوق الخيارات تركنا الأمر و لما بعد تلات
+
+196
+00:15:28,490 --> 00:15:33,090
+شهور ايش راح يصير؟ راح ندفع 26 و بالتالي كام تقول
+
+197
+00:15:33,090 --> 00:15:39,230
+خسرنا كفرصة مديلة؟ خسرنا 4 دولار شفتوا؟ اذا انا
+
+198
+00:15:39,230 --> 00:15:43,270
+حولت الخسارة تلاتي الى ربح هتش طب تشوف كيف .. هلأ
+
+199
+00:15:43,270 --> 00:15:49,710
+لسه يكتب المعنى الهتش؟ خلينا ناخد انه احنا لو
+
+200
+00:15:49,710 --> 00:15:53,090
+مادخلناش ال option كام هتدفعي لو مادخلتيش ال
+
+201
+00:15:53,090 --> 00:15:53,510
+option؟
+
+202
+00:15:57,200 --> 00:16:02,440
+حد يدفعي 26 طيب لو دخلت ال option كام حد يدفعي 22
+
+203
+00:16:02,440 --> 00:16:07,640
+كام الفرق what is the difference أربعة أربعة أربعة
+
+204
+00:16:07,640 --> 00:16:08,960
+أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة
+
+205
+00:16:08,960 --> 00:16:09,160
+أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة
+
+206
+00:16:09,160 --> 00:16:09,280
+أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة
+
+207
+00:16:09,280 --> 00:16:09,340
+أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة
+
+208
+00:16:09,340 --> 00:16:11,840
+أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة
+
+209
+00:16:11,840 --> 00:16:13,720
+أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة
+
+210
+00:16:13,720 --> 00:16:16,500
+أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة
+
+211
+00:16:16,500 --> 00:16:20,520
+أربعة أربعة أربعة
+
+212
+00:16:20,520 --> 00:16:25,720
+أهخدهم لأنه انت ثبتت .. ثبتت .. و سعر السوق 26
+
+213
+00:16:25,720 --> 00:16:30,240
+بحكيك فهيجي البنك يحكيلك أمامك two options أمام
+
+214
+00:16:30,240 --> 00:16:35,100
+الخيارات يا إما تاخد السهم هذا اللي ثمنه 26 و
+
+215
+00:16:35,100 --> 00:16:37,700
+حضرتك تاخد السهم و تروح تبيعي في السوق هتاخده 26
+
+216
+00:16:37,700 --> 00:16:41,980
+دولار أو بقولك أنا بتفعلك الفرخ الاربع دولار عشتين
+
+217
+00:16:41,980 --> 00:16:46,200
+انت ربحانة فاكليها process in your mind ناخد ..
+
+218
+00:16:46,200 --> 00:16:46,960
+فضلي بالظبط
+
+219
+00:16:49,970 --> 00:16:56,530
+لو ماكانش خيارات، هتدفعي ستة و عشرين، المعنى كدا
+
+220
+00:16:56,530 --> 00:17:03,510
+إذا .. ايوة، لو دخلت ستة و عشرين، انت هتخسر هذا
+
+221
+00:17:03,510 --> 00:17:09,070
+الفرصة البديلة، خسارة، لأ، هيكون خسارة إذا انت
+
+222
+00:17:09,070 --> 00:17:09,890
+مادخلتيش السوق
+
+223
+00:17:12,820 --> 00:17:16,580
+يعني المفروض كام تدفع لو دخلت ال option؟ 22 طب لو
+
+224
+00:17:16,580 --> 00:17:21,620
+مدخلتيش يعني أعطيكم مثال بسيط لو حاكوا .. حاكوا ..
+
+225
+00:17:21,620 --> 00:17:24,140
+حاكوا في السوق لو حاكوا في السوق اللي بيجي من
+
+226
+00:17:24,140 --> 00:17:28,760
+الساعة تمانية للعشرة بدفع أربع دولار و اللي بيجي
+
+227
+00:17:28,760 --> 00:17:33,340
+من العشرة للاطماعش بدفع تمانية دولار الناس متى
+
+228
+00:17:33,340 --> 00:17:35,720
+هيروحوا على السوق؟ تمانية دولار طيب و لو راحوا من
+
+229
+00:17:35,720 --> 00:17:39,300
+العشرة للاطماعش شو سيجي؟ هيخسروا أربعة دولار بس
+
+230
+00:17:39,300 --> 00:17:42,500
+هذه الخسارة .. خسارة إيش بيسميها؟ خسارة فرصة بديلة
+
+231
+00:17:44,120 --> 00:17:50,500
+مشيت معاكي؟ طيب هلأ ناخد العكس .. العكس .. العكس
+
+232
+00:17:50,500 --> 00:17:56,880
+أنه .. أنه بدفع 16 بشيري العربان انه .. انه .. انه
+
+233
+00:17:56,880 --> 00:18:00,580
+بدل ما .. ما .. ما .. بشتر بالعربان و بدفع 16 بدون
+
+234
+00:18:00,580 --> 00:18:03,160
+ما ادفع السئلة اللي هو الخسارة لأ .. لأ .. لأ ..
+
+235
+00:18:03,160 --> 00:18:04,660
+لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ
+
+236
+00:18:04,660 --> 00:18:05,020
+.. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ ..
+
+237
+00:18:05,020 --> 00:18:05,780
+لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ
+
+238
+00:18:05,780 --> 00:18:06,420
+.. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ ..
+
+239
+00:18:06,420 --> 00:18:08,740
+لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ
+
+240
+00:18:11,370 --> 00:18:13,630
+و إذا if you are interested روح تشتريه للسوق
+
+241
+00:18:13,630 --> 00:18:16,570
+تشتريه هتشتريه في 16 بدل ما انتوا تكونوا شاريها في
+
+242
+00:18:16,570 --> 00:18:21,670
+26 هنا صار هنا صار فيه هجش ايش الهجش اللي صار
+
+243
+00:18:21,670 --> 00:18:25,730
+الهجش انا اللي سويته في حالتين الحالة الأولى لما
+
+244
+00:18:25,730 --> 00:18:30,510
+طلع السهم انا اربحت اربعة دولار و في الحالة
+
+245
+00:18:30,510 --> 00:18:34,330
+التانية لما نزل السهم انا خسرت فقط two dollar و
+
+246
+00:18:34,330 --> 00:18:39,120
+كان المفروض لو بدي اشري بدي اشري ب 16 و بتاعلي انا
+
+247
+00:18:39,120 --> 00:18:42,820
+بروح باشري ب 16 احسن ماروح اشري مثلا ب 20 لان لو
+
+248
+00:18:42,820 --> 00:18:47,320
+اشتريته ب 20 و نزل ل 16 انا خسرت كام في الحالة دي؟
+
+249
+00:18:47,320 --> 00:18:53,340
+اربعة دولار فانا قللت الخسارة تبعتي فاللي بيصير لو
+
+250
+00:18:53,340 --> 00:18:57,940
+ايجي احنا خدنا سفر الخسارة تبعتنا فقط عند التنين و 
+
+251
+00:18:57,940 --> 00:19:03,350
+بعدين الربح مفتوح، الخسارة تبعتنا بس 2 دولار في كل
+
+252
+00:19:03,350 --> 00:19:07,110
+.. حتى لو السوق .. طب اتخيل السوق وصل لصفر ..
+
+253
+00:19:07,110 --> 00:19:11,950
+مستحيل يصير صفر .. كده إيش خسارتنا .. لو السوق وصل
+
+254
+00:19:11,950 --> 00:19:17,890
+لصفر .. 2 دولار .. بس 2 .. اللي إحنا حاطناهم ..
+
+255
+00:19:17,890 --> 00:19:21,170
+لكن لو إحنا السوق حقا وصل Alpha .. عارفين إيش معنى
+
+256
+00:19:21,170 --> 00:19:25,290
+Alpha؟ ما له نهاية .. إيش ربحنا في الحالة هذه؟ ما له 
+
+257
+00:19:25,290 --> 00:19:29,390
+نهاية .. شوفتوا كيف .. شوفتوا كيف ال investment بي
+
+258
+00:19:29,390 --> 00:19:33,770
+.. بي .. بيش بيسوي بيعمل infinity for your profits
+
+259
+00:19:33,770 --> 00:19:39,970
+and limited your risk هذا بيسموه H هذا بيسموه تحوط
+
+260
+00:19:39,970 --> 00:19:43,670
+تحوط from the opposite direction of the markets
+
+261
+00:19:43,670 --> 00:19:45,950
+إيش ال opposite direction؟ ال opposite direction
+
+262
+00:19:45,950 --> 00:19:50,350
+أنه ينخفض السوق طب لو أخدنا شغل اسمه bought option
+
+263
+00:19:50,350 --> 00:19:54,300
+عكسه تماما، هذا اسمه call option في شغل اسمها put
+
+264
+00:19:54,300 --> 00:19:59,320
+option الموضوع هتختلف كل ما بنزل السوق لتحت كل ما
+
+265
+00:19:59,320 --> 00:20:02,560
+أنا ال infinity تبعتي الربح بكون infinity و كل ما
+
+266
+00:20:02,560 --> 00:20:07,540
+السوق بطلع لفوق بكون الخسارة تبعتي محدودة عكس هذا
+
+267
+00:20:07,540 --> 00:20:11,380
+تمامًا عكسه تمامًا كل ما السوق بنزل لتحت الربح
+
+268
+00:20:11,380 --> 00:20:15,160
+infinity و كل ما السوق بطلع لفوق بكون الربح just 2
+
+269
+00:20:15,160 --> 00:20:20,520
+$أو أفضل خسارة هنا two dollar you lose only two
+
+270
+00:20:20,520 --> 00:20:25,260
+dollar when the market is go up but your profit is
+
+271
+00:20:25,260 --> 00:20:29,460
+infinity if the market go down هذا في حالة شغل
+
+272
+00:20:29,460 --> 00:20:33,220
+اسمها put option طبعًا هذا ال details سناخده في
+
+273
+00:20:33,220 --> 00:20:39,280
+chapter 11 شفتوا
+
+274
+00:20:39,280 --> 00:20:44,660
+كيف ال investment بيغير كتير من من سلوك ال risk
+
+275
+00:20:44,660 --> 00:20:45,400
+والمخاطر
+
+276
+00:20:48,700 --> 00:20:53,060
+الآن سنتحدث عن السوق الاجتماعي والاقتصاد لأن
+
+277
+00:20:53,060 --> 00:21:00,560
+الاستثمار كما ذكرناه قبلها، الحواسب الحقيقية تدفع
+
+278
+00:21:00,560 --> 00:21:07,820
+قيمة للاقتصاد، الشركات تعمل وتصنع 2 أشياء، خدمات
+
+279
+00:21:07,820 --> 00:21:13,920
+جيدة وأموال. الآن بسبب هذا الاتصال، السوق
+
+280
+00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:19,740
+الاجتماعي يعتبر كسيارة as a vehicle to transferring
+
+281
+00:21:19,740 --> 00:21:24,720
+the real assets into financial assets الأسواق
+
+282
+00:21:24,720 --> 00:21:27,180
+المالية شو بتسوي؟ هي as a vehicle عارفين مش معناه
+
+283
+00:21:27,180 --> 00:21:31,320
+vehicle؟ vehicle يعني زي مركبة بتنقل ال real
+
+284
+00:21:31,320 --> 00:21:35,480
+assets to the financial assets مين المنقل لهذا
+
+285
+00:21:35,480 --> 00:21:39,240
+الموضوع؟ هو ال financial markets So how the
+
+286
+00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:41,980
+financial markets influence in the economy؟ كيف
+
+287
+00:21:41,980 --> 00:21:45,500
+بتأثر على الأسواق على الاقتصاد؟ إذا في عندنا
+
+288
+00:21:45,500 --> 00:21:49,720
+activated financial markets it means the car or
+
+289
+00:21:49,720 --> 00:21:54,380
+the vehicle will be faster هتكون السيارة أسرع وإذا
+
+290
+00:21:54,380 --> 00:21:57,800
+كان في عندنا weaknesses financial markets it means
+
+291
+00:21:57,800 --> 00:22:03,000
+it delay the car or the vehicle هتخليها إيش؟ تبطأ
+
+292
+00:22:03,000 --> 00:22:06,860
+دي ليه يعني إيش؟ تبطئها أو تأخرها يعني إذا كان
+
+293
+00:22:06,860 --> 00:22:11,460
+عند أسواق مالية قوية وكفؤة هيكون قدرة الاقتصاد على
+
+294
+00:22:11,460 --> 00:22:14,520
+تحويل ال real assets into financial assets عالية
+
+295
+00:22:14,520 --> 00:22:19,060
+كتير very efficient إذا كان عندنا الاقتصاد أو
+
+296
+00:22:19,060 --> 00:22:21,180
+عندنا الأسواق المالية ضعيفة، ال financial markets
+
+297
+00:22:21,180 --> 00:22:25,120
+ضعيفة هتخلي انه ال transfer of the real assets
+
+298
+00:22:25,120 --> 00:22:30,520
+into the financial assets is very weak هتكون ضعيفة
+
+299
+00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:35,440
+وبالتالي إذا كان هذه ال relationship ضعيفة هتكون
+
+300
+00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:38,240
+there is no adding value to the economy مش هيكون
+
+301
+00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:43,020
+في زيادة بالاقتصاد، إذا هذا كله متكامل، الصناعة
+
+302
+00:22:43,020 --> 00:22:45,880
+بتكون متطورة، ال financial market متطور بكون عندي
+
+303
+00:22:45,880 --> 00:22:49,220
+ال .. ال .. ال adding value to the economy is high
+
+304
+00:22:50,200 --> 00:22:54,420
+طيب خلينا نيجي نحكي how these things work كيف ممكن
+
+305
+00:22:54,420 --> 00:22:56,920
+هذه الأشياء تشتغل، the first thing is the
+
+306
+00:22:56,920 --> 00:22:59,900
+information rule إيش ال information rule what it
+
+307
+00:22:59,900 --> 00:23:05,640
+means أكيد جريته فيها دور المعرفة، دور المعلومات
+
+308
+00:23:05,640 --> 00:23:12,700
+how the information rule inspire the economy كيف
+
+309
+00:23:12,700 --> 00:23:13,920
+بيتمشف الاقتصاد
+
+310
+00:23:18,680 --> 00:23:22,140
+إحنا أعطينالكم ال introduction المقدمة إن ال
+
+311
+00:23:22,140 --> 00:23:25,220
+financial market is the vehicle that is
+
+312
+00:23:25,220 --> 00:23:28,200
+transferring the real asset into the financial
+
+313
+00:23:28,200 --> 00:23:32,320
+assets if we have weak financial markets it will
+
+314
+00:23:32,320 --> 00:23:35,360
+be delayed if we have strong markets it means it
+
+315
+00:23:35,360 --> 00:23:39,560
+will be faster طيب واحدة من العوامل اللي بتخلي
+
+316
+00:23:39,560 --> 00:23:43,640
+تعمل تسريع في الاقتصاد ل information rule how this
+
+317
+00:23:43,640 --> 00:23:46,080
+come؟ كيف ممكن يصير؟ فضل
+
+318
+00:23:51,610 --> 00:23:55,570
+بدائل كيف بناء على .. كيف البدائل؟ يعني مثلا إن
+
+319
+00:23:55,570 --> 00:23:58,590
+دوستيشن بطل مشروع فالمعلومات هي غير بطل غير معلم
+
+320
+00:23:58,590 --> 00:24:01,930
+يعني المعلومات هي غير يعني توجهني يعني هو مشروع
+
+321
+00:24:01,930 --> 00:24:05,630
+أفضل how كيف المعلومات بتتوجهني هذا الموضوع بناء
+
+322
+00:24:05,630 --> 00:24:08,530
+على إيش؟ راسي المعلومات؟ فضل
+
+323
+00:24:26,850 --> 00:24:31,670
+السوق من خلال المعلومات هو السوق the market is
+
+324
+00:24:31,670 --> 00:24:40,840
+smart السوق ذكي if the market is as a man So he is
+
+325
+00:24:40,840 --> 00:24:44,620
+smart and he knows which company has a future
+
+326
+00:24:44,620 --> 00:24:50,020
+prospect and which company has a bad prospect يعني
+
+327
+00:24:50,020 --> 00:24:53,740
+السوق بعرف أو بيطلع معلومات مين الشركات اللي ناجحة
+
+328
+00:24:53,740 --> 00:24:55,400
+ومين الشركات اللي فاشلة
+
+329
+00:24:59,440 --> 00:25:05,180
+yes which company has a good prospect يعني مستقبل
+
+330
+00:25:05,180 --> 00:25:09,220
+جيد has a good future and which company has a bad
+
+331
+00:25:09,220 --> 00:25:15,400
+future فالسوق هيش هيسمح هيسمح فقط للشركات with a
+
+332
+00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:19,680
+strong profile strong profile عارفين إيش يعني with a
+
+333
+00:25:19,680 --> 00:25:23,560
+strong record so if all of companies in the
+
+334
+00:25:23,560 --> 00:25:26,320
+financial market with a strong profile it means
+
+335
+00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:29,730
+adding value to the economy إذا كان كل الشركات اللي
+
+336
+00:25:29,730 --> 00:25:35,370
+في السوق عندهم استثمارات قوية هت .. تعطي قدرة
+
+337
+00:25:35,370 --> 00:25:37,730
+كبيرة للسوق يعني for .. for instance if you have
+
+338
+00:25:37,730 --> 00:25:39,670
+information now the information rule if you have
+
+339
+00:25:39,670 --> 00:25:43,450
+information that this company investing in a bad
+
+340
+00:25:43,450 --> 00:25:47,110
+record invest .. investments so you invest or not
+
+341
+00:25:47,990 --> 00:25:52,670
+هل تشتري شركة الشركة أو لا؟ سؤالي هو لك الآن إذا
+
+342
+00:25:52,670 --> 00:25:55,910
+كنت كانت شركة مستخدمة تكون لديك معلومات عن شركة
+
+343
+00:25:55,910 --> 00:26:00,950
+معينة أن هذه الشركة لديها مستقبل سيئ لذا هل تشتري
+
+344
+00:26:00,950 --> 00:26:05,850
+أو لا؟ لن تشتري لذا السيارات الآن تتوقف عن العمل
+
+345
+00:26:05,850 --> 00:26:13,570
+والشركة ستغادر السوق فالسوق فقط يحافظ على الشركات
+
+346
+00:26:13,570 --> 00:26:17,860
+التي تحتوي على مستوى عالي واضحة يعني السوق الملبس
+
+347
+00:26:17,860 --> 00:26:21,600
+محتفظ في الشركات القوية and others they will leave
+
+348
+00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:27,200
+the markets yeah kick them out يطلعهم برة So شفتوا
+
+349
+00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:30,220
+كيف ال market بيعمل على إيش filtering the
+
+350
+00:26:30,220 --> 00:26:34,430
+companies just Okay guys strong people here and
+
+351
+00:26:34,430 --> 00:26:37,690
+weak people here just these strong people be in
+
+352
+00:26:37,690 --> 00:26:40,290
+the market and these people be outside the markets
+
+353
+00:26:40,290 --> 00:26:43,670
+So what the companies do in this case the weak
+
+354
+00:26:43,670 --> 00:26:46,830
+markets or the weak companies try to promote
+
+355
+00:26:46,830 --> 00:26:50,310
+themselves promote يعني يحسنوا حالهم they try to
+
+356
+00:26:50,310 --> 00:26:52,390
+compete other companies in order to keep
+
+357
+00:26:52,390 --> 00:26:55,050
+themselves in the market عشان يحافظوا على السوق؟
+
+358
+00:26:55,050 --> 00:26:58,910
+بالظبط عشان يظلوا موجودين في السوق Okay because we
+
+359
+00:26:58,910 --> 00:27:01,930
+are living in a very high competition environment
+
+360
+00:27:01,930 --> 00:27:06,170
+if we fail to face the competition it means we
+
+361
+00:27:06,170 --> 00:27:08,490
+will leave the market شوفتوا كيف ال information
+
+362
+00:27:08,490 --> 00:27:13,270
+rule is important this is why the companies has to
+
+363
+00:27:13,270 --> 00:27:18,530
+disclose the information to the public this is why
+
+364
+00:27:18,530 --> 00:27:21,810
+again underline what I'm saying this is why
+
+365
+00:27:22,860 --> 00:27:27,660
+companies have to disclose the information to the
+
+366
+00:27:27,660 --> 00:27:32,660
+public يعني عشان هيك الشركات لازم to disclose
+
+367
+00:27:32,660 --> 00:27:36,190
+عارفين شو معناه disclose؟ تنشر بياناتها لل public
+
+368
+00:27:36,190 --> 00:27:38,790
+even the private information or the public
+
+369
+00:27:38,790 --> 00:27:42,590
+information because investors are smart and they
+
+370
+00:27:42,590 --> 00:27:45,670
+analyze this information and then decide whether
+
+371
+00:27:45,670 --> 00:27:49,190
+this company has a good future prospect or a bad
+
+372
+00:27:49,190 --> 00:27:54,980
+future prospect شفتوا كيف الدنيا بتمشي؟ فعشان هيك
+
+373
+00:27:54,980 --> 00:27:57,940
+إحنا بالشركات تبعتنا ادخلولي على ال website تبعت
+
+374
+00:27:57,940 --> 00:28:02,280
+ال Palestine Stock Exchange وادخلولي على الشركات
+
+375
+00:28:02,280 --> 00:28:05,020
+الأمريكية أو البريطانية أو الأوروبية شوفوا the amount
+
+376
+00:28:05,020 --> 00:28:07,660
+of information about these companies and amount of
+
+377
+00:28:07,660 --> 00:28:11,240
+information about these companies and see even a
+
+378
+00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:14,800
+very little information very little information is
+
+379
+00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:18,260
+this close to the public even you know the number
+
+380
+00:28:18,260 --> 00:28:24,530
+of employees and how much the executives earn from
+
+381
+00:28:24,530 --> 00:28:28,730
+the company يعني رواتب الموظفين الكبار منشورة على
+
+382
+00:28:28,730 --> 00:28:32,810
+القوائم المالية للشركات طب احنا عندنا لهذا الكلام
+
+383
+00:28:32,810 --> 00:28:38,270
+مستحيل صح؟ عشان تشوفوا أهم معنى المعلومات كم مهمة
+
+384
+00:28:38,270 --> 00:28:40,530
+عشان تساعد the investors to take the decision
+
+385
+00:28:40,530 --> 00:28:45,450
+consumption timing this is a very important and
+
+386
+00:28:45,450 --> 00:28:47,630
+this is important to you because you are in the
+
+387
+00:28:47,630 --> 00:28:52,520
+early stages of your life إيش حكيت أنا؟ this is a
+
+388
+00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:55,100
+very important to you because you are in the early
+
+389
+00:28:55,100 --> 00:29:00,160
+stages of your life هذا مهم لكوا ليش؟ ليش مهم
+
+390
+00:29:00,160 --> 00:29:03,740
+لكوا؟ لأن أنتم you are in the early stages of
+
+391
+00:29:03,740 --> 00:29:09,060
+your life بداية حياتكم okay what it means what it
+
+392
+00:29:09,060 --> 00:29:12,160
+means for companies what it means for investors
+
+393
+00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:18,580
+now investors generally speaking investors have to
+
+394
+00:29:19,450 --> 00:29:22,990
+consumption times and two investment times in
+
+395
+00:29:22,990 --> 00:29:26,990
+their early ages في فترات البداية الحياة تبعتهم
+
+396
+00:29:26,990 --> 00:29:33,790
+they earn more they earn more يعني بياخدوا فلوس
+
+397
+00:29:33,790 --> 00:29:39,210
+كثير يعني خلينا نحكي مثلا وانتوا عمركم من عشرين
+
+398
+00:29:39,210 --> 00:29:46,730
+لاربعين سنة you earn more the earning
+
+399
+00:29:50,810 --> 00:29:58,210
+is greater than the consumption ال
+
+400
+00:29:58,210 --> 00:30:01,570
+earning يعني الفلوس اللي بتدخل علينا أكثر من
+
+401
+00:30:01,570 --> 00:30:05,370
+الفلوس اللي بتطلع يعني بناخد فلوس في فترة الحياة
+
+402
+00:30:05,370 --> 00:30:07,430
+اللي عمره من العشرين لاربعين أو من عشرين لخمسين
+
+403
+00:30:07,430 --> 00:30:12,350
+and after forties or even after fifties it will be
+
+404
+00:30:12,350 --> 00:30:17,730
+the opposite نستهلك أكثر لأنه بنكبر فبصير عندنا
+
+405
+00:30:17,730 --> 00:30:18,930
+the consumption
+
+406
+00:30:22,040 --> 00:30:27,540
+is greater than earnings in this case if you have
+
+407
+00:30:27,540 --> 00:30:31,760
+like this case so what you can do إذا كان عندنا
+
+408
+00:30:31,760 --> 00:30:34,480
+الحالة هذه what you can do then يعني طبيعي اليوم
+
+409
+00:30:34,480 --> 00:30:37,520
+مثلا آبائكم ما شاء الله عليهم أو أخواتكم أو
+
+410
+00:30:37,520 --> 00:30:43,900
+إخوانكم في فترة هذه they earn more طيب to invest
+
+411
+00:30:43,900 --> 00:30:50,310
+إذا حلنا المشكلة هذه إيش؟ Why we invest? Because in
+
+412
+00:30:50,310 --> 00:30:55,390
+a time of earning higher than the consumption, we
+
+413
+00:30:55,390 --> 00:30:59,510
+have saving. So this saving, we need instruments
+
+414
+00:30:59,510 --> 00:31:04,270
+to store this money for the future use يعني احنا
+
+415
+00:31:04,270 --> 00:31:08,230
+هناخد الفلوس هذه اللي هتزيد عن حاجتنا و بالتالي
+
+416
+00:31:08,230 --> 00:31:12,550
+نروح نعملها investment في أدوات تستطيع تحفظ لي
+
+417
+00:31:12,550 --> 00:31:18,030
+القيمة للمستقبل stocks و bonds؟ do we have like
+
+418
+00:31:18,030 --> 00:31:20,330
+this culture in our life؟ هل عندنا هذه ال culture
+
+419
+00:31:20,330 --> 00:31:23,760
+في حياتنا ولا لأ؟ some people they do and others
+
+420
+00:31:23,760 --> 00:31:28,600
+they don't يعني ممكن في ناس تروح عنده مثلا راتبه
+
+421
+00:31:28,600 --> 00:31:33,000
+1500 شكل خلاص بقول لك مكفيني ال 1500 شكل but if he
+
+422
+00:31:33,000 --> 00:31:36,720
+uses it properly he may manage it ممكن يستخدمها
+
+423
+00:31:36,720 --> 00:31:40,940
+بطريقة صحيحة okay if he uses the personal finance
+
+424
+00:31:40,940 --> 00:31:46,160
+properly he can manage this so the solution is
+
+425
+00:31:46,160 --> 00:31:52,450
+investments so the investment it means it means
+
+426
+00:31:52,450 --> 00:31:58,550
+when the time of consuming is higher than the
+
+427
+00:31:58,550 --> 00:32:02,590
+earnings so we can bring our money from what we
+
+428
+00:32:02,590 --> 00:32:07,790
+saved before عشان هيك بيقولوا القرش الأبيض ينفع
+
+429
+00:32:07,790 --> 00:32:11,950
+اليوم الأسود وطبيعي احنا لما كل إنسان بيكبر فبكون
+
+430
+00:32:11,950 --> 00:32:15,710
+the earnings بتنخفض لأنه هيصير عنده ما شاء الله أولاد
+
+431
+00:32:15,710 --> 00:32:19,910
+وهيصير عنده بيت وهيصير عنده أولاد يروحوا الجامعة و
+
+432
+00:32:19,910 --> 00:32:24,990
+ها و يصير يصرف كثير وما فيش .. وبالتالي في .. في
+
+433
+00:32:24,990 --> 00:32:27,590
+مراحل بداية الحياة بيحتاج .. so the financial
+
+434
+00:32:27,590 --> 00:32:30,510
+markets facilitate this عشان نعمل linkage with the
+
+435
+00:32:30,510 --> 00:32:33,050
+financial markets فبتاخد من الناس اللي عندهم
+
+436
+00:32:33,050 --> 00:32:38,270
+higher earning than consumption بتعملهم investment
+
+437
+00:32:38,270 --> 00:32:41,590
+and when they grow up so they .. it's give them
+
+438
+00:32:42,860 --> 00:32:46,580
+فمعنى الكلام الناس اللي .. اللي اليوم الصغيرة in
+
+439
+00:32:46,580 --> 00:32:49,720
+the early stages they give them money for the
+
+440
+00:32:49,720 --> 00:32:53,860
+people with the old stages يعني طبيعي الناس الصغار
+
+441
+00:32:53,860 --> 00:33:02,640
+بيصيروا يعطوا الناس الكبار تفضل what does it say?
+
+442
+00:33:03,020 --> 00:33:07,800
+about what? consumption time or which one?
+
+443
+00:33:11,080 --> 00:33:15,620
+Financial markets facilitate .. facilitate يعني
+
+444
+00:33:15,620 --> 00:33:22,380
+بتسهل عملية store your money for the future use
+
+445
+00:33:22,380 --> 00:33:26,800
+يعني بتقدر أنت من خلالها تستثمر في السوق المالي
+
+446
+00:33:26,800 --> 00:33:32,320
+عشان في المستقبل تأخذ فلوسك بزيادة what is the
+
+447
+00:33:32,320 --> 00:33:39,640
+relation between
+
+448
+00:33:39,640 --> 00:33:42,620
+financial market and economy يعني لو كل واحد فينا
+
+449
+00:33:42,620 --> 00:33:45,960
+خلينا احنا نفكر هذا لو كل واحد فينا نفكر في
+
+450
+00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:50,620
+الطريقة هذه إيش رح يصير؟ رح يصير احنا معناها الفلوس
+
+451
+00:33:50,620 --> 00:33:55,320
+الزيادة، هنروح نستثمرها في شركات، الشركات هتنتج،
+
+452
+00:33:55,320 --> 00:33:58,740
+هتزيد لي الاقتصاد، الحكومة هتاخذ ضرائب، هتحسن لي
+
+453
+00:33:58,740 --> 00:34:03,540
+الطرق، هتحسن لي المستشفيات، هتحسن لي كل شيء طب
+
+454
+00:34:03,540 --> 00:34:07,820
+تصوروا إنه الشخص اللي هان ما عملش saving، حط الفلوس
+
+455
+00:34:07,820 --> 00:34:11,260
+وراح صرفها على حاله بدون ما يعمل investments إيش
+
+456
+00:34:11,260 --> 00:34:16,450
+رح يصير؟ المصانع مش هتشتغل تمام؟ الحكومة مش هتاخذ
+
+457
+00:34:16,450 --> 00:34:19,950
+ضرائب، الطرق هتظل مكسرة، و المستشفيات هتكون
+
+458
+00:34:19,950 --> 00:34:24,490
+وضعها سيء، و الدنيا كلها وضعها سيء شفتوا كيف ..
+
+459
+00:34:24,490 --> 00:34:27,530
+كيف بتعمل ال financial markets؟ عشان هيك أرجع لل
+
+460
+00:34:27,530 --> 00:34:29,550
+definition ال financial market is a vehicle
+
+461
+00:34:29,550 --> 00:34:34,470
+vehicle يعني إيش؟ مركبة .. مركبة بتساعدنا ننتقل من
+
+462
+00:34:34,470 --> 00:34:37,050
+حالة إلى أخرى okay؟
+
+463
+00:34:40,630 --> 00:34:42,870
+allocation of risk I explain what it means
+
+464
+00:34:42,870 --> 00:34:45,590
+allocation of risk allocation of risk أنه احنا
+
+465
+00:34:45,590 --> 00:34:48,970
+نوزع المخاطر فال financial market هتوزع لنا المخاطر
+
+466
+00:34:48,970 --> 00:34:52,650
+من شركة إلى أخرى so investors can select
+
+467
+00:34:52,650 --> 00:34:55,090
+securities consistent with their taste of risk
+
+468
+00:34:55,090 --> 00:35:01,030
+يعني ممكن يكون أنا عندي allocation of risk لو
+
+469
+00:35:01,030 --> 00:35:05,350
+أجينا احنا هاي اللي احنا موجودين هنا كل واحد موجود
+
+470
+00:35:05,350 --> 00:35:12,500
+عندنا في القاع هنا عنده risk خاصة فيه في ناس they
+
+471
+00:35:12,500 --> 00:35:21,080
+prefer risk others they avoid risk others they are
+
+472
+00:35:21,080 --> 00:35:25,120
+risk neutral يعني في عندنا ثلاث أنواع من الناس عادة
+
+473
+00:35:25,120 --> 00:35:33,440
+في عندنا risk takers risk takers okay و عندنا risk
+
+474
+00:35:33,440 --> 00:35:38,820
+lovers risk takers risk avoiders
+
+475
+00:35:40,810 --> 00:35:46,690
+and risk neutrals، لدينا
+
+476
+00:35:46,690 --> 00:35:49,510
+ثلاثة أنواع من ال risk risk takers هذي بيسموهم
+
+477
+00:35:49,510 --> 00:35:53,590
+risk lovers هدول بيحبوا المخاطر وفيه عندنا ال risk
+
+478
+00:35:53,590 --> 00:35:58,670
+avoiders بتجنبوا المخاطر وفي ناس عندنا ال risk
+
+479
+00:35:58,670 --> 00:36:04,790
+neutral طيب it's up to you then حسب أنت وين راحت،
+
+480
+00:36:04,790 --> 00:36:09,710
+تسأل طبعا مين أحسن، ما فيش فيها أحسن وأسوأ ال risk
+
+481
+00:36:09,710 --> 00:36:15,110
+يعني ال risk takers risk takers ناس بتاخدوا مخاطر
+
+482
+00:36:15,110 --> 00:36:22,130
+زي مين زي ال gamblers ال gamblers أو
+
+483
+00:36:22,130 --> 00:36:28,590
+بيسموهم ال speculators ال risk avoiders هدول الناس
+
+484
+00:36:28,590 --> 00:36:31,790
+يعني مثلا زلمة اختيار في السن كبير بده يستثمر ..
+
+485
+00:36:31,790 --> 00:36:35,490
+بده يستثمر فلوسه مش .. مقدرش ياخد مخاطر وإلا إذا
+
+486
+00:36:35,490 --> 00:36:39,500
+أخذ مخاطر بيقولوا أنا في مستشفى الشفاء صح؟أه لأنه
+
+487
+00:36:39,500 --> 00:36:42,320
+بيصير the prices of the financial market is highly
+
+488
+00:36:42,320 --> 00:36:46,340
+fluctuated and his heart attack is fluctuated too
+
+489
+00:36:46,340 --> 00:36:51,500
+يعني كمان ضربات القلب هتزيد عنده لأنه بهذا السبب
+
+490
+00:36:51,500 --> 00:36:56,880
+بيكون risk neutral هو fair هو في النص يعني ممكن
+
+491
+00:36:56,880 --> 00:37:02,100
+مرات ياخد مخاطر ومرات ما ياخدش مخاطر العامة المالية
+
+492
+00:37:02,100 --> 00:37:07,400
+تساعدنا في توزيع المخاطر بين المخاطرين المخاطرين
+
+493
+00:37:07,400 --> 00:37:09,380
+المخاطرين المخاطرين المخاطرين المخاطرين المخاطرين
+
+494
+00:37:09,380 --> 00:37:09,600
+المخاطرين المخاطرين المخاطرين المخاطرين المخاطرين
+
+495
+00:37:09,600 --> 00:37:12,700
+المخاطرين المخاطرين المخاطرين المخاطرين المخاطرين
+
+496
+00:37:12,700 --> 00:37:12,900
+المخاطرين المخاطرين المخاطرين المخاطرين المخاطرين
+
+497
+00:37:12,900 --> 00:37:14,400
+المخاطرين المخاطرين المخاطرين المخاطرين المخاطرين
+
+498
+00:37:14,400 --> 00:37:15,860
+المخاطرين المخاطرين المخاطرين المخاطرين المخاطرين
+
+499
+00:37:15,860 --> 00:37:17,460
+المخاطرين المخاطرين المخاطرين المخاطرين المخاطرين
+
+500
+00:37:17,460 --> 00:37:28,860
+المخاطرين المخاطرين المخاطرين 
+
+501
+00:37:32,250 --> 00:37:39,310
+the financial markets one of the instructions of
+
+502
+00:37:39,310 --> 00:37:41,990
+the financial markets and management that
+
+503
+00:37:41,990 --> 00:37:45,510
+companies has that companies have to do separation
+
+504
+00:37:45,510 --> 00:37:49,810
+between the ownership and the management لازم يكون 
+
+505
+00:37:49,810 --> 00:37:54,770
+فصل بين الإدارة و بين الملاك ليش؟ مين بيقدر يقول 
+
+506
+00:37:54,770 --> 00:37:59,330
+ليش؟ ليش لازم يكون في فصل حسب قرائتكم بين إدارة 
+
+507
+00:37:59,330 --> 00:38:00,630
+الشركة و بين ملاك الشركة
+
+508
+00:38:07,130 --> 00:38:10,470
+Okay ليش لازم يكون فيه فاصل بين إدارة الشركة و
+
+509
+00:38:10,470 --> 00:38:17,470
+إدارة  في الشركة؟
+
+510
+00:38:17,470 --> 00:38:22,270
+أه ليه بتأكد من ..؟ ممكن أن أحد الأشخاص في الشركة
+
+511
+00:38:22,270 --> 00:38:25,990
+يجيب حاجة لحاجة معينة أو ممكن أن يكون مش دارس
+
+512
+00:38:25,990 --> 00:38:29,570
+الإدارة كويس بالظبط هي سبب أين؟ بفضلك
+
+513
+00:38:34,710 --> 00:38:39,950
+تعرفي جامعة شو حكت؟ بتكون هم بيصيروا مصالحهم ..
+
+514
+00:38:39,950 --> 00:38:44,850
+مصالح الملاك أهم من مصالح الشركة فعشان هيك لازم نعمل 
+
+515
+00:38:44,850 --> 00:38:49,850
+separation طيب عملنا separation كيف بيصير ال
+
+516
+00:38:49,850 --> 00:38:53,670
+separation؟ بيكون عندها هنا ال honors .. يتبعوا لل
+
+517
+00:38:53,670 --> 00:38:59,590
+story هذه honors .. ال honors they elect ..
+
+518
+00:38:59,590 --> 00:39:05,280
+بنتخبوا the board of directorsمظبوط؟ أخذتو هدف
+
+519
+00:39:05,280 --> 00:39:09,440
+المحاسب وطبعا ال share holders هم ال owners they
+
+520
+00:39:09,440 --> 00:39:12,180
+elect the board of directors اللي هو أعضاء مجلس
+
+521
+00:39:12,180 --> 00:39:16,620
+الإدارة بيمتخبوهم then the board of directors select
+
+522
+00:39:16,620 --> 00:39:24,420
+the executives or managers managers بختاروا ال
+
+523
+00:39:24,420 --> 00:39:27,900
+managers هذا بيسموه separation طب و احنا عملنا
+
+524
+00:39:27,900 --> 00:39:32,360
+separation إيش اللي راح يصير في الشركة؟ ووجدوا بال
+
+525
+00:39:32,360 --> 00:39:35,160
+financial markets لما احنا عملنا separation روحنا
+
+526
+00:39:35,160 --> 00:39:39,760
+بعدنا الملاك و خلينا بس ال managers هم اللي بتحكم
+
+527
+00:39:39,760 --> 00:39:45,200
+الشركة and the managers are human beings ايش يعني
+
+528
+00:39:45,200 --> 00:39:49,880
+و ال managers ايش هم .. are human beings يعني بناء
+
+529
+00:39:49,880 --> 00:39:54,560
+أدميين so they have their own interest so
+
+530
+00:39:54,560 --> 00:39:59,240
+accordingly managers prefer their own interest
+
+531
+00:39:59,240 --> 00:40:00,960
+over the company interest
+
+532
+00:40:04,080 --> 00:40:08,340
+فهمتوها؟ بالظبط صار يفضلوا مصالح الشخصية على مصالح
+
+533
+00:40:08,340 --> 00:40:13,140
+الشركة so if they want to take a decision first
+
+534
+00:40:13,140 --> 00:40:15,400
+thing they evaluate what is the benefit of
+
+535
+00:40:15,400 --> 00:40:19,310
+themselves before taking the decision if the
+
+536
+00:40:19,310 --> 00:40:23,770
+decision help them or increase their benefits so
+
+537
+00:40:23,770 --> 00:40:27,370
+they will take this otherwise they reject the
+
+538
+00:40:27,370 --> 00:40:30,190
+decision يعني إذا هم قرروا بدمي عملوا استثمار و
+
+539
+00:40:30,190 --> 00:40:34,530
+لجوا هذا الاستثمار في مخاطر و ممكن يطلعوهم من
+
+540
+00:40:34,530 --> 00:40:38,530
+الشركة فبروحوش على الاستثمار هذا زي ما احنا عندنا
+
+541
+00:40:38,530 --> 00:40:42,050
+مثلا ممكن تكون بالبيئة العربية تبعتنا إذا احنا في
+
+542
+00:40:42,050 --> 00:40:46,530
+عندنا استثمار و المدير بده يروح هذا استثمار و
+
+543
+00:40:46,530 --> 00:40:51,570
+يستثمر فالمدير ممكن يخاف ان صاحب المشروع يطرده إذا 
+
+544
+00:40:51,570 --> 00:40:55,810
+.. إذا فشل المشروع فبالتالي ايش؟ بنروح باختيار
+
+545
+00:40:55,810 --> 00:41:01,490
+مشاريع سهلة عشان ما يطردوهاش بس هذا غلط لازم احنا
+
+546
+00:41:01,490 --> 00:41:04,850
+نشجع ال investors .. ال managers انه to take some
+
+547
+00:41:04,850 --> 00:41:09,350
+time to take risk لازم يتاخدوا مخاطر عشان مشارع ..
+
+548
+00:41:09,350 --> 00:41:14,020
+في مشاريع تحتاج إلى مخاطرففي الحالة هذه ال
+
+549
+00:41:14,020 --> 00:41:17,320
+managers إذا كان بمصلحتهم ينفذوا المشروع هينفذوه
+
+550
+00:41:17,320 --> 00:41:20,720
+إذا مش بمصلحتهم مش هينفذوه هذا إيش بيسميه agency
+
+551
+00:41:20,720 --> 00:41:26,720
+problem إيش بيسميه agency problem كيف بنتحل ال
+
+552
+00:41:26,720 --> 00:41:31,660
+agency problem how we ensure that managers they
+
+553
+00:41:31,660 --> 00:41:35,500
+work for the business objectives not for their
+
+554
+00:41:35,500 --> 00:41:36,640
+personal objectives
+
+555
+00:41:43,210 --> 00:41:46,710
+مش أكيد، مش أكيد، هذا إذا احنا بالحالة طبعتنا ممكن
+
+556
+00:41:46,710 --> 00:41:50,390
+يصير إيه، okay؟ so how we ensure this؟ يعني كيف
+
+557
+00:41:50,390 --> 00:41:53,150
+ممكن نتأكد؟ خليني أنا .. بناها تفكروا في الموضوع،
+
+558
+00:41:53,150 --> 00:41:58,470
+كيف احنا .. لحظة بس، كيف ممكن نوجد طريقة .. نوجد
+
+559
+00:41:58,470 --> 00:42:03,930
+طريقة بحيث أنه نتأكد أن هدول المدرة صحيح ممكن
+
+560
+00:42:03,930 --> 00:42:07,550
+يحققوا أهدافهم، لكن بالأساس لازم يحققوا أهداف
+
+561
+00:42:07,550 --> 00:42:13,790
+المشروع أعطوني .. أعطوني فكرة كيف ممكن نسويهاعطينا
+
+562
+00:42:13,790 --> 00:42:18,450
+من البنات اللي ورا لنسمع صوتهم البنات اللي ورا انا
+
+563
+00:42:18,450 --> 00:42:21,610
+طبعا هين حكينا المرة اللي جاي البنات اللي
+
+564
+00:42:21,610 --> 00:42:25,290
+ما بيشاركوش يعني على الأقل يعني و أعطوني ideas انا
+
+565
+00:42:25,290 --> 00:42:29,470
+هأختار أسماء من هان و انا ديهم to ensure ان الكل
+
+566
+00:42:29,470 --> 00:42:33,190
+بيعمل participation اه تفضلي مثلا اذا كان مثلا
+
+567
+00:42:33,190 --> 00:42:37,650
+مبلغ شخصية أحافظ أفضل سنة مثلا مبلغ 15 أفضل مثلا
+
+568
+00:42:37,650 --> 00:42:44,270
+اه احنا نحافظ و ندل المبلغ نحافظ عليه مثلا Okay
+
+569
+00:42:44,270 --> 00:42:48,690
+إذا هذا إيش نسويها؟ compensation انه أنا ب .. ب ..
+
+570
+00:42:48,690 --> 00:42:52,230
+بعمل linking .. بعمل linking لل object .. your
+
+571
+00:42:52,230 --> 00:42:55,390
+personal objective with the company objective عشان
+
+572
+00:42:55,390 --> 00:42:58,770
+نتأكد من الكلام هذا لازم نعمل شغل اسمه corporate
+
+573
+00:42:58,770 --> 00:43:04,570
+governance corporate governance لأ corporate
+
+574
+00:43:04,570 --> 00:43:10,450
+governance حوكمة حوكمة نعمل .. اسمعتوا في كلمة
+
+575
+00:43:10,450 --> 00:43:16,310
+الحوكمة هذه؟ نعمل حوكمة سمعتوا في الحوكمة قبل هيك؟
+
+576
+00:43:16,310 --> 00:43:20,750
+بدكم تاخدوها طيب okay so I will leave you in this
+
+577
+00:43:20,750 --> 00:43:24,410
+point and next meeting we will talk about the
+
+578
+00:43:24,410 --> 00:43:29,530
+governance الحوكمة
+
+579
+00:43:34,270 --> 00:43:38,670
+لأ مش حكومة هي how كما انا مش هحكيكوا إيش معناها
+
+580
+00:43:38,670 --> 00:43:41,530
+لان لإن المرة الجاية هابد أشوفها إنتوا كيف
+
+581
+00:43:41,530 --> 00:43:46,630
+هتفهموها ال how كما اه
+
+582
+00:43:46,630 --> 00:43:50,110
+بدنا نشوف I will leave this question for the next
+
+583
+00:43:50,110 --> 00:43:54,070
+meeting هنسيب هذا السؤال ل next meeting and I will
+
+584
+00:43:54,070 --> 00:44:00,170
+start from the top يعني هالو ال bottom مكان مسموهم
+
+585
+00:44:00,170 --> 00:44:03,590
+ال .. the first row is the bottom and the last row
+
+586
+00:44:03,590 --> 00:44:07,290
+is the .. the top بنربده من الورا نشوف كيف الوضع
+
+587
+00:44:07,290 --> 00:44:12,030
+تبعهم okay بيجيوا عند هذا الحد و تذكروا أنه ال ..
+
+588
+00:44:12,030 --> 00:44:18,650
+السؤال تبعنا الحوكمة بقى هنسأل
+
+589
+00:44:18,650 --> 00:44:22,850
+السؤال هذا اللقاء الجاي بس ت .. بس ن .. نرجع و ن
+
+590
+00:44:22,850 --> 00:44:27,490
+.. نذكركوا في اللي حكينا اليوم حكينا اليوم عن
+
+591
+00:44:27,490 --> 00:44:34,050
+derivatives على المشتقات المشتقات بتساعدنا على
+
+592
+00:44:34,050 --> 00:44:40,090
+التحوط من المخاطر، توزيع المخاطر، نقل المخاطر من
+
+593
+00:44:40,090 --> 00:44:43,530
+طرف إلى آخر، بعدين حكينا عن علاقة بين الاقتصاد و
+
+594
+00:44:43,530 --> 00:44:47,090
+بين الأسواق المالية و كيف الأسواق المالية بتساعد
+
+595
+00:44:47,090 --> 00:44:50,690
+على تنمية الاقتصادية و تسريع العلاقة بين ال real
+
+596
+00:44:50,690 --> 00:44:54,320
+asset و بين ال financial assetsOkay يعطيكم العافية
+
+597
+00:44:54,320 --> 00:44:55,240
+و نشوف ال .. 
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/SyEGhcuMf7Y_postprocess.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/SyEGhcuMf7Y_postprocess.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..8adfc00a457aad200cc9f04d367eac3184c37036
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/SyEGhcuMf7Y_postprocess.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,2388 @@
+1
+00:00:21,620 --> 00:00:24,980
+اللقاء الفات I left unanswered question regarding
+
+2
+00:00:24,980 --> 00:00:28,060
+what it means derivatives what it means
+
+3
+00:00:28,060 --> 00:00:33,100
+derivatives معنى المشتقات و أتوقع إنه إن شاء الله
+
+4
+00:00:33,100 --> 00:00:40,800
+يكون في إجابة عندكم بالمعنى المشتقات، في حل؟
+
+5
+00:00:40,800 --> 00:00:44,440
+مابديش بس أشوف تلت أربعة بنات اللي أمامي هم اللي
+
+6
+00:00:44,440 --> 00:00:48,160
+بيحكوا، مابدي أشوف كمان اللي وراها أو أنا ممكن
+
+7
+00:00:48,160 --> 00:00:56,100
+أختار من عندي كمانف okay إيش معنى المشتقات؟
+
+8
+00:00:58,540 --> 00:01:03,200
+الو انت اول شي حكيت ان ال real assets هي الأساس
+
+9
+00:01:03,200 --> 00:01:08,360
+اتبعك بينها ال financial assets و منها بناخد اللي
+
+10
+00:01:08,360 --> 00:01:11,940
+هو derivatives derivatives اللي هي عبارة عن ال ..
+
+11
+00:01:11,940 --> 00:01:15,940
+so just just one by one you are right first thing
+
+12
+00:01:15,940 --> 00:01:19,840
+it means it is derived from the financial assets
+
+13
+00:01:19,840 --> 00:01:25,100
+just what she said she said that derivatives is
+
+14
+00:01:25,100 --> 00:01:31,300
+drivenمن الأموال الاجتماعية أو من أسعار الأموال
+
+15
+00:01:31,300 --> 00:01:37,300
+الاجتماعية فهذه هي الأموال الاجتماعية نحن نحرر
+
+16
+00:01:37,300 --> 00:01:43,920
+الميزانيات من الأموال الاجتماعية ميزانيات حسنا
+
+17
+00:01:43,920 --> 00:01:49,380
+دعونا نعود من مجلس المقابلة السابقة نقول أن
+
+18
+00:01:49,380 --> 00:01:54,680
+الأموال الاجتماعية محررة من ايه؟
+
+19
+00:01:54,770 --> 00:01:57,750
+الاستثمار الاجتماعي ليس مجرد واحد من واحد من واحد
+
+20
+00:01:57,750 --> 00:02:00,390
+من واحد من واحد من واحد من واحد من واحد
+
+21
+00:02:04,350 --> 00:02:08,650
+نعرف بالفعل أن الحيوانات الحقيقية تنتج حيوانات
+
+22
+00:02:08,650 --> 00:02:11,950
+اقتصادية ثم حيوانات اقتصادية تتجارب حيوانات
+
+23
+00:02:11,950 --> 00:02:12,430
+اقتصادية تتجارب حيوانات اقتصادية تتجارب حيوانات
+
+24
+00:02:12,430 --> 00:02:13,210
+اقتصادية تتجارب حيوانات اقتصادية تتجارب حيوانات
+
+25
+00:02:13,210 --> 00:02:14,730
+اقتصادية تتجارب حيوانات اقتصادية تتجارب حيوانات
+
+26
+00:02:14,730 --> 00:02:15,170
+اقتصادية تتجارب حيوانات اقتصادية تتجارب حيوانات
+
+27
+00:02:15,170 --> 00:02:15,370
+اقتصادية تتجارب حيوانات اقتصادية تتجارب حيوانات
+
+28
+00:02:15,370 --> 00:02:22,990
+اقتصادية تتجارب حيوانات اقتصادية
+
+29
+00:02:22,990 --> 00:02:28,090
+تتجthen generate financial asset financial asset
+
+30
+00:02:28,090 --> 00:02:31,110
+generate the derivatives my second question now
+
+31
+00:02:31,110 --> 00:02:34,290
+what are the different types of financial asset of
+
+32
+00:02:34,290 --> 00:02:39,330
+the derivatives what are the main types of
+
+33
+00:02:39,330 --> 00:02:50,670
+derivatives okay options futures and so on
+
+34
+00:02:54,860 --> 00:02:58,140
+Okay, so we have three types of financial of
+
+35
+00:02:58,140 --> 00:03:04,240
+derivatives options futures and as well So in
+
+36
+00:03:04,240 --> 00:03:09,080
+chapter 11, we will have in-depth look on the
+
+37
+00:03:09,080 --> 00:03:13,280
+importance of options futures and the as well So
+
+38
+00:03:13,280 --> 00:03:16,460
+just here you need to have a general idea about
+
+39
+00:03:16,460 --> 00:03:18,720
+the what it means derivatives and why we use
+
+40
+00:03:18,720 --> 00:03:25,210
+derivativesللتفكير فهي مرة أخرى تحريكات من أسعار
+
+41
+00:03:25,210 --> 00:03:31,330
+أخرى من الأمانات مثل الأسعار والمعادلات هذه
+
+42
+00:03:31,330 --> 00:03:35,730
+هي التحريكات الآن السؤال الثاني هو لماذا نستخدم
+
+43
+00:03:35,730 --> 00:03:43,910
+التحريكات؟ لتحرير الرسق لذلك كيف؟ كيف نستطيع تحرير
+
+44
+00:03:43,910 --> 00:03:46,450
+الرسق باستخدام التحريكات؟ هل قمت بتقرير حول هذا؟
+
+45
+00:03:49,450 --> 00:03:53,350
+yeah okay that's fine so if you know this transfer
+
+46
+00:03:53,350 --> 00:03:57,730
+risk this is fine but now how we transfer the risk
+
+47
+00:03:57,730 --> 00:04:05,890
+okay and for whom we transfer the risk let's take
+
+48
+00:04:05,890 --> 00:04:12,590
+a example about how we transfer risk if the
+
+49
+00:04:12,590 --> 00:04:18,190
+company borrow a money you have company Aand
+
+50
+00:04:18,190 --> 00:04:31,190
+borrow money by loans from bank okay so now who's
+
+51
+00:04:31,190 --> 00:04:36,330
+taking the risk the bank or the company the bank
+
+52
+00:04:36,330 --> 00:04:40,330
+okay the
+
+53
+00:04:40,330 --> 00:04:44,270
+bank now how the bank transfer the money to
+
+54
+00:04:44,270 --> 00:04:44,930
+someone else
+
+55
+00:04:49,130 --> 00:04:52,530
+this is the this is the idea because now the bank
+
+56
+00:04:52,530 --> 00:04:56,010
+is taking risk so how the bank by using
+
+57
+00:04:56,010 --> 00:04:59,290
+derivatives by using options how the bank can
+
+58
+00:04:59,290 --> 00:05:01,750
+transfer the money or transfer the risk
+
+59
+00:05:17,050 --> 00:05:21,710
+بقى in this case how the bank transfer the .. you
+
+60
+00:05:21,710 --> 00:05:27,770
+are right بقى how the bank transfer the risk money
+
+61
+00:05:27,770 --> 00:05:35,230
+يعني بمثله طبعا شركة هاي يعني ال bank هذا فيه له
+
+62
+00:05:35,230 --> 00:05:40,450
+فلوس في عند ال bank فلوس طبع الشركة هاي يعنيياخدها
+
+63
+00:05:40,450 --> 00:05:45,650
+ايه؟ ال bank هي
+
+64
+00:05:45,650 --> 00:05:50,590
+risk taker هو بتاخد المخاطر، كيف ممكن تنقل المخاطر
+
+65
+00:05:50,590 --> 00:05:56,050
+لواحد اخر؟ خليني شوية نفكر، لما ال bank اعطى قرض ل
+
+66
+00:05:56,050 --> 00:06:00,950
+company ايه؟ طب هلأ مش ال bank لما اعطى القرض؟ فيه
+
+67
+00:06:00,950 --> 00:06:06,620
+ضماناتطيب خليني أفكه فيها ف .. just .. just think
+
+68
+00:06:06,620 --> 00:06:13,160
+if the company A fail to repay the .. the bonds or
+
+69
+00:06:13,160 --> 00:06:17,940
+the .. the loan how the .. the bank ensure to get
+
+70
+00:06:17,940 --> 00:06:21,860
+the money back؟ يعني لو الشركة ماقدرتش تدفع الفلوس
+
+71
+00:06:21,860 --> 00:06:25,120
+بتاعتها، كيف الش .. كيف ال bank بدو .. بدو ياخد
+
+72
+00:06:25,120 --> 00:06:30,340
+فلوسها؟Okay if the bank fail to pay the collateral
+
+73
+00:06:30,340 --> 00:06:34,480
+collateral يعني الضمانات إذا هذه الشركة فلست وفي
+
+74
+00:06:34,480 --> 00:06:38,920
+ضمانات ومش قادرين نسير الضمانات خلنا بس احنا بنفكر
+
+75
+00:06:38,920 --> 00:06:45,260
+تفكير investment from the investment wise this
+
+76
+00:06:45,260 --> 00:06:52,100
+is one option okay you are right او just to give
+
+77
+00:06:52,100 --> 00:06:55,360
+you example how we transfer risk we insure the
+
+78
+00:06:55,360 --> 00:07:01,370
+loansعارفين شو معنى insure؟ insure insure نأمن
+
+79
+00:07:01,370 --> 00:07:06,650
+نعمل تأمينات so if the bank if the company fail it
+
+80
+00:07:06,650 --> 00:07:09,510
+means who will pay back the money the insurance
+
+81
+00:07:09,510 --> 00:07:14,470
+company شركات التأمين وبتسأل احنا شفتوا كيف ممكن
+
+82
+00:07:14,470 --> 00:07:19,250
+احنا ال financial derivatives ممكن تساعدنا انه
+
+83
+00:07:19,250 --> 00:07:19,870
+احنا نعمل
+
+84
+00:07:23,200 --> 00:07:27,620
+نقل للخطر من شركة إلى أخرى فالأخير بعد ال
+
+85
+00:07:27,620 --> 00:07:32,180
+insurance company who is taking the risk شركة
+
+86
+00:07:32,180 --> 00:07:36,340
+التأمين شركة التأمين شركة
+
+87
+00:07:36,340 --> 00:07:37,040
+التأمين شركة التأمين شركة التأمين شركة التأمين
+
+88
+00:07:37,040 --> 00:07:37,080
+شركة التأمين شركة التأمين شركة التأمين شركة
+
+89
+00:07:37,080 --> 00:07:37,300
+التأمين شركة التأمين شركة التأمين شركة التأمين
+
+90
+00:07:37,300 --> 00:07:37,400
+شركة التأمين شركة التأمين شركة التأمين شركة
+
+91
+00:07:37,400 --> 00:07:37,440
+التأمين شركة التأمين شركة التأمين شركة التأمين
+
+92
+00:07:37,440 --> 00:07:38,140
+شركة التأمين شركة التأمين شركة التأمين شركة
+
+93
+00:07:38,140 --> 00:07:42,080
+التأمين شركة التأمين شركة التأمين شركة التأمين
+
+94
+00:07:42,080 --> 00:07:45,720
+شركة
+
+95
+00:07:45,720 --> 00:07:50,650
+التأمOkay يعني كيف احنا نعمل كلام هذا هنعمله
+
+96
+00:07:50,650 --> 00:07:55,590
+تفاصيل في ال chapter eleven يعني خلينا نركز ال
+
+97
+00:07:55,590 --> 00:08:00,310
+story لما احنا بنعمل transfer ل ال risk ال .. ال
+
+98
+00:08:00,310 --> 00:08:03,490
+.. ال bank أعطى قرب ل a, a مش قادرين يدفعوا اتخاذ
+
+99
+00:08:03,490 --> 00:08:09,790
+تبعهم فبروح the bank want to protect his bank بدهم
+
+100
+00:08:09,790 --> 00:08:13,530
+يحموا دهورهم so how they do this by using
+
+101
+00:08:13,530 --> 00:08:18,810
+insurance companyOkay هذا بيسموه transfer risk
+
+102
+00:08:18,810 --> 00:08:22,730
+sometimes they allocate risk what it means
+
+103
+00:08:22,730 --> 00:08:28,470
+allocate risk يوزع المخاطر so how we derivatives
+
+104
+00:08:28,470 --> 00:08:32,910
+how can be used to allocate risk نوزع المخاطر
+
+105
+00:08:32,910 --> 00:08:39,750
+فكروا في الموضوع احنا
+
+106
+00:08:39,750 --> 00:08:45,510
+عرفنا كيف نقل مخاطر هلأ بكيف نوزع المخاطريعني إيش
+
+107
+00:08:45,510 --> 00:08:49,170
+نوزع المخاطر؟ يعني إذا أنا بخطر بدل ما أنا أتحمل
+
+108
+00:08:49,170 --> 00:08:52,050
+الخطر لحالي from the investment-wise let's other
+
+109
+00:08:52,050 --> 00:08:55,570
+people to consider or to allocate or to share the
+
+110
+00:08:55,570 --> 00:09:02,750
+risk خليهم يساعدوني في تحمل المخاطر Bank المركزي
+
+111
+00:09:02,750 --> 00:09:07,850
+okay it is one possible أو طريقة أخرى مجموعة ملوك
+
+112
+00:09:07,850 --> 00:09:14,020
+ممكن إذا كان مثلا شركة IBM مثلا بدهم قرضبدهم
+
+113
+00:09:14,020 --> 00:09:17,540
+يعملوا investment في new areas in Africa بدهم
+
+114
+00:09:17,540 --> 00:09:21,120
+يستثمروا في جنوب أفريقيا and this is a very high
+
+115
+00:09:21,120 --> 00:09:25,100
+risk environment so what they can do they share
+
+116
+00:09:25,100 --> 00:09:29,920
+risk with other banks بيشاركوا
+
+117
+00:09:29,920 --> 00:09:34,180
+المخاطر مع بنوك أخرى rather just to take the risk
+
+118
+00:09:34,180 --> 00:09:38,300
+you can share the risk with other banks okay so
+
+119
+00:09:38,300 --> 00:09:40,500
+this is what it means transferring risk allocate
+
+120
+00:09:40,500 --> 00:09:41,500
+risk
+
+121
+00:09:45,610 --> 00:09:50,350
+مع بنوك أخرى بدل ما هو ال bank لحاله يتحمل الخطر
+
+122
+00:09:50,350 --> 00:09:54,530
+فبصير بنوك تانية تتشاركوا بس بالعكس في .. في
+
+123
+00:09:54,530 --> 00:09:57,990
+الأولى transfer risk you totally transfer risk to
+
+124
+00:09:57,990 --> 00:10:01,130
+other companies يعني حتى لو في failure هيصير في
+
+125
+00:10:01,130 --> 00:10:04,370
+أيه هيجي ال insurance company أنه هي تتحمل ..
+
+126
+00:10:04,370 --> 00:10:05,810
+تتحمل الخطر عادى
+
+127
+00:10:09,860 --> 00:10:14,720
+هتاخد قرض هي هتتقدم لقرض من بنك نفترض .. لنفترض
+
+128
+00:10:14,720 --> 00:10:19,140
+أنه هتتقدم من .. من بنك فلسطين okay فهلأ بنك
+
+129
+00:10:19,140 --> 00:10:22,560
+فلسطين اللي بيشعر أنه القرض كبير فبروح بيعملوا
+
+130
+00:10:22,560 --> 00:10:26,940
+شغلة اسمها قروض مجمعة قروض إيش؟ مجمعة .. مجمعة هذه
+
+131
+00:10:26,940 --> 00:10:29,900
+بال .. بال finance and banking بتاخدوها فالقرض
+
+132
+00:10:29,900 --> 00:10:32,780
+المجمع هذا أكثر من بنك بيشترك في ال .. في القرض
+
+133
+00:10:32,780 --> 00:10:37,160
+لأنه ال .. ال .. قيمة القرض عالية و مخاطر القرض
+
+134
+00:10:37,160 --> 00:10:41,630
+كمان عالية فبتساعد they are sharing the riskواضحة؟
+
+135
+00:10:41,630 --> 00:10:47,110
+okay فقلنا إيش .. how to use the .. how to use to
+
+136
+00:10:47,110 --> 00:10:51,230
+transfer the risk and what the other functions of
+
+137
+00:10:51,230 --> 00:10:56,910
+derivatives when the .. in fact .. when the .. لأ،
+
+138
+00:10:56,910 --> 00:11:01,530
+كملي هلأ لو كان في مثلا الشركة A شركة أكبر منها
+
+139
+00:11:01,530 --> 00:11:06,030
+ممكن أنها تساعدها في هذا الاشياء؟أه في حالة انه ال
+
+140
+00:11:06,030 --> 00:11:09,350
+.. مثلا شركة ال insurance هذه التأمين ممكن إذا
+
+141
+00:11:09,350 --> 00:11:12,330
+كانت شركة صغيرة تروح تعمل إعادة التأمين أه بيمشي
+
+142
+00:11:12,330 --> 00:11:17,290
+الحالة الكلام صحيح طيب في ال derivatives في شغلات
+
+143
+00:11:17,290 --> 00:11:22,050
+تانية أخرى أو عوامل أخرى بسبب إحنا بنستخدم ال
+
+144
+00:11:22,050 --> 00:11:25,250
+derivatives يعني ليش إحنا بنستخدم ال derivatives
+
+145
+00:11:25,250 --> 00:11:30,010
+أول شي حكينا لك لأنها بتنقل المخاطر تاني شغلة أنه
+
+146
+00:11:30,010 --> 00:11:32,630
+بتيم مشاركة المخاطر تالت إشي إشي ممكن نسوي
+
+147
+00:11:36,050 --> 00:11:41,210
+فكروا هتج هتج
+
+148
+00:11:41,210 --> 00:11:45,410
+هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج
+
+149
+00:11:45,410 --> 00:11:47,290
+هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج
+
+150
+00:11:47,290 --> 00:11:50,170
+هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج
+
+151
+00:11:50,170 --> 00:11:50,870
+هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج
+
+152
+00:11:50,870 --> 00:11:51,690
+هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج
+
+153
+00:11:51,690 --> 00:12:00,350
+هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج هتج
+
+154
+00:12:00,350 --> 00:12:02,790
+هت
+
+155
+00:12:03,800 --> 00:12:09,520
+هيدج هيدج يعني دفع مخاطر مش transfer risk هي هيدج
+
+156
+00:12:09,520 --> 00:12:12,960
+زي
+
+157
+00:12:12,960 --> 00:12:17,380
+مثال ناخد مثال المرة الفاترة حكينا بدنا نشري سهم
+
+158
+00:12:17,380 --> 00:12:21,180
+نعطي مثال how to use hedge كيف احنا ممكن نستخدم
+
+159
+00:12:21,180 --> 00:12:28,160
+الهيدج المرة
+
+160
+00:12:28,160 --> 00:12:33,000
+الفاترة حكينا اتفقنا انه لو كان سعر السهم عشرين
+
+161
+00:12:33,000 --> 00:12:45,210
+دولاراتفقنا سعره لان احنا اشتريناه على عشرين او
+
+162
+00:12:45,210 --> 00:12:52,610
+بدنا نشتريه على عشرين تثبيت fix على عشرين بس
+
+163
+00:12:52,610 --> 00:12:57,790
+ما معنى فلوس انه نشتري هذا السهم ماعناش فلوسلكن
+
+164
+00:12:57,790 --> 00:13:01,150
+الفلوس متى هتتوفر؟ هتتوفر بعد ما تلت تلت شهور طب
+
+165
+00:13:01,150 --> 00:13:03,850
+احنا هنخاف أنه بعد تلت شهور الأسعار إيش تصير فيها
+
+166
+00:13:03,850 --> 00:13:08,930
+تزيد لأنه إذا زادت الأسعار so we need to pay more
+
+167
+00:13:08,930 --> 00:13:14,750
+than twenty فإيش لازم نسوي؟ بنروح في شغلة اسمها
+
+168
+00:13:14,750 --> 00:13:19,050
+option وتحديدا
+
+169
+00:13:19,050 --> 00:13:24,030
+بال call option call option يعني شراء خيارات طيب
+
+170
+00:13:24,650 --> 00:13:27,390
+بنروح على ال .. ال .. ال financial market بيحكولنا
+
+171
+00:13:27,390 --> 00:13:31,670
+احنا بنطلب two dollar على نعمل fixing ده ال price
+
+172
+00:13:31,670 --> 00:13:35,210
+نثبتلك السعر how they determine two dollar they
+
+173
+00:13:35,210 --> 00:13:38,810
+have a big equation طبعا مش دوركم ان انتوا تعرفوا
+
+174
+00:13:38,810 --> 00:13:43,790
+how to calculate the two dollar لأن هاي في معادلة
+
+175
+00:13:43,790 --> 00:13:46,270
+كبيرة زي من هن والباب المعادلة عشان ايه؟ to
+
+176
+00:13:46,270 --> 00:13:50,070
+calculate how we estimate two dollar يعني كيف نطلع
+
+177
+00:13:50,070 --> 00:13:55,450
+ال two dollar هدوة okay soفبيحكينا ال bank او ال
+
+178
+00:13:55,450 --> 00:13:57,410
+intermediary institutions بيقولنا you have to pay
+
+179
+00:13:57,410 --> 00:14:03,770
+2$ okay fine لناخد two options ال option ان سعر
+
+180
+00:14:03,770 --> 00:14:12,790
+السهم بيطلع نفط ل 26$ او سعر السهم صار 16$ 26$ او
+
+181
+00:14:12,790 --> 00:14:18,290
+16$ هنشوف كيف الهجة ناخد السيناري الأول سعر السهم
+
+182
+00:14:18,290 --> 00:14:20,210
+ارتفع شو هنسوي
+
+183
+00:14:27,710 --> 00:14:35,630
+هنسمع .. هنسمع منكم ايش؟ اتنين دولار هتدفعي
+
+184
+00:14:35,630 --> 00:14:40,650
+يعني عشرين دولار هتدفعي اتنين و عشرين اذا؟ اربع و
+
+185
+00:14:40,650 --> 00:14:45,070
+عشرين ليش اربع و عشرين؟ خليها بس .. خليها بقى حلوة
+
+186
+00:14:45,070 --> 00:14:50,450
+انت ثبتت سعرها لعشرين اه و صار عندى اتنين دولار
+
+187
+00:14:50,450 --> 00:14:55,090
+هدول عربون ال premium صارت اتنين و عشرين مظبوط؟ اه
+
+188
+00:14:55,090 --> 00:15:01,060
+طيب بعدين؟أنا دفعت ال .. دفعت العشرين و هكمل
+
+189
+00:15:01,060 --> 00:15:04,320
+للعشرين دفع .. بدك تدفعيهم بالأقل مثلا اه طب و
+
+190
+00:15:04,320 --> 00:15:07,220
+اتنين و اتنين و عشرين مظبط طب و ايش علاقة الستة و
+
+191
+00:15:07,220 --> 00:15:10,280
+عشرين هذه الزيادة مالناش ده ربع اه السوق ايش
+
+192
+00:15:10,280 --> 00:15:13,100
+هيساوي معاكي السوق ايش هيساوي معاكي يقولك تفضلي
+
+193
+00:15:13,100 --> 00:15:19,440
+هاي أربعة دولار ربحك من هذه ال .. ال .. الصفقة طب
+
+194
+00:15:19,440 --> 00:15:24,760
+نفترض انه احنا مادخلناش في سوق الخيارات نفترض
+
+195
+00:15:24,760 --> 00:15:28,490
+مادخلناش في سوق الخياراتتركنا الأمر و لما بعد تلات
+
+196
+00:15:28,490 --> 00:15:33,090
+شهور ايش راح يصير؟ راح ندفع 26 و بالتالي كام تقول
+
+197
+00:15:33,090 --> 00:15:39,230
+خسرنا كفرصة مديلة؟ خسرنا 4 دولار شفتوا؟ اذا انا
+
+198
+00:15:39,230 --> 00:15:43,270
+حولت الخسارة تلاتي الى ربح هتش طب تشوف كيف .. هلأ
+
+199
+00:15:43,270 --> 00:15:49,710
+لسه يكتب المعنى الهتش؟ خلينا ناخد انه احنا لو
+
+200
+00:15:49,710 --> 00:15:53,090
+مادخلناش ال option كام هتدفعي لو مادخلتيش ال
+
+201
+00:15:53,090 --> 00:15:53,510
+option؟
+
+202
+00:15:57,200 --> 00:16:02,440
+حد يدفعي 26 طيب لو دخلت ال option كام حد يدفعي 22
+
+203
+00:16:02,440 --> 00:16:07,640
+كام الفرق what is the difference أربعة أربعة أربعة
+
+204
+00:16:07,640 --> 00:16:08,960
+أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة
+
+205
+00:16:08,960 --> 00:16:09,160
+أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة
+
+206
+00:16:09,160 --> 00:16:09,280
+أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة
+
+207
+00:16:09,280 --> 00:16:09,340
+أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة
+
+208
+00:16:09,340 --> 00:16:11,840
+أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة
+
+209
+00:16:11,840 --> 00:16:13,720
+أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة
+
+210
+00:16:13,720 --> 00:16:16,500
+أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة أربعة
+
+211
+00:16:16,500 --> 00:16:20,520
+أربعة أربعة أربعة
+
+212
+00:16:20,520 --> 00:16:25,720
+أهخدهم لأنه انت ثبتت .. ثبتت .. و سعر السوق 26
+
+213
+00:16:25,720 --> 00:16:30,240
+بحكيك فهيجي البنك يحكيلك أمامك two options أمام
+
+214
+00:16:30,240 --> 00:16:35,100
+الخيارات يا إما تاخد السهم هذا اللي ثمنه 26 و
+
+215
+00:16:35,100 --> 00:16:37,700
+حضرتك تاخد السهم و تروح تبيعي في السوق هتاخده 26
+
+216
+00:16:37,700 --> 00:16:41,980
+دولار أو بقولك أنا بتفعلك الفرخ الاربع دولار عشتين
+
+217
+00:16:41,980 --> 00:16:46,200
+انت ربحانة فاكليها process in your mind ناخد ..
+
+218
+00:16:46,200 --> 00:16:46,960
+فضلي بالظبط
+
+219
+00:16:49,970 --> 00:16:56,530
+لو ماكانش خيارات، هتدفعي ستة و عشرين، المعنى كدا
+
+220
+00:16:56,530 --> 00:17:03,510
+إذا .. ايوة، لو دخلت ستة و عشرين، انت هتخسر هذا
+
+221
+00:17:03,510 --> 00:17:09,070
+الفرصة البديلة، خسارة، لأ، هيكون خسارة إذا انت
+
+222
+00:17:09,070 --> 00:17:09,890
+مادخلتيش السوق
+
+223
+00:17:12,820 --> 00:17:16,580
+يعني المفروض كام تدفع لو دخلت ال option؟ 22 طب لو
+
+224
+00:17:16,580 --> 00:17:21,620
+مدخلتيش يعني أعطيكم مثال بسيط لو حاكوا .. حاكوا ..
+
+225
+00:17:21,620 --> 00:17:24,140
+حاكوا في السوق لو حاكوا في السوق اللي بيجي من
+
+226
+00:17:24,140 --> 00:17:28,760
+الساعة تمانية للعشرة بدفع أربع دولار و اللي بيجي
+
+227
+00:17:28,760 --> 00:17:33,340
+من العشرة للاطماعش بدفع تمانية دولار الناس متى
+
+228
+00:17:33,340 --> 00:17:35,720
+هيروحوا على السوق؟ تمانية دولار طيب و لو راحوا من
+
+229
+00:17:35,720 --> 00:17:39,300
+العشرة للاطماعش شو سيجي؟ هيخسروا أربعة دولار بس
+
+230
+00:17:39,300 --> 00:17:42,500
+هذه الخسارة .. خسارة إيش بيسميها؟ خسارة فرصة بديلة
+
+231
+00:17:44,120 --> 00:17:50,500
+مشيت معاكي؟ طيب هلأ ناخد العكس .. العكس .. العكس
+
+232
+00:17:50,500 --> 00:17:56,880
+أنه .. أنه بدفع 16 بشيري العربان انه .. انه .. انه
+
+233
+00:17:56,880 --> 00:18:00,580
+بدل ما .. ما .. ما .. بشتر بالعربان و بدفع 16 بدون
+
+234
+00:18:00,580 --> 00:18:03,160
+ما ادفع السئلة اللي هو الخسارة لأ .. لأ .. لأ ..
+
+235
+00:18:03,160 --> 00:18:04,660
+لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ
+
+236
+00:18:04,660 --> 00:18:05,020
+.. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ ..
+
+237
+00:18:05,020 --> 00:18:05,780
+لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ
+
+238
+00:18:05,780 --> 00:18:06,420
+.. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ ..
+
+239
+00:18:06,420 --> 00:18:08,740
+لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ
+
+240
+00:18:11,370 --> 00:18:13,630
+و اذا if you are interested روح تشتريه للسوق
+
+241
+00:18:13,630 --> 00:18:16,570
+تشتريه هتشتريه في 16 بدل ما انتوا تكونوا شاريها في
+
+242
+00:18:16,570 --> 00:18:21,670
+26 هنا صار هنا صار فيه هجش ايش الهجش اللي صار
+
+243
+00:18:21,670 --> 00:18:25,730
+الهجش انا اللي سويته في حالتين الحالة الأولى لما
+
+244
+00:18:25,730 --> 00:18:30,510
+طلع السهم انا اربحت اربعة دولار و في الحالة
+
+245
+00:18:30,510 --> 00:18:34,330
+التانية لما نزل السهم انا خسرت فقط two dollar و
+
+246
+00:18:34,330 --> 00:18:39,120
+كان المفروض لو بدي اشري بدي اشري ب 16وبتاعلي انا
+
+247
+00:18:39,120 --> 00:18:42,820
+بروح باشري ب 16 احسن ماروح اشري مثلا ب 20 لان لو
+
+248
+00:18:42,820 --> 00:18:47,320
+اشتريته ب 20 و نزل ل 16 انا خسرت كام في الحالة دى؟
+
+249
+00:18:47,320 --> 00:18:53,340
+اربعة دولار فانا قللت الخسارة تبعتي فاللي بيصير لو
+
+250
+00:18:53,340 --> 00:18:57,940
+ايجي احنا خدنا سفر الخسارة تبعتنا فقط عند التنين و
+
+251
+00:18:57,940 --> 00:19:03,350
+بعدين الربح مفتوحالخسارة تبعتنا بس 2 دولار في كل
+
+252
+00:19:03,350 --> 00:19:07,110
+.. حتى لو السوق .. طب اتخيل السوق وصل لصفر ..
+
+253
+00:19:07,110 --> 00:19:11,950
+مستحيل يصير صفر .. كده إيش خسارتنا .. لو السوق وصل
+
+254
+00:19:11,950 --> 00:19:17,890
+لصفر .. 2 دولار .. بس 2 .. اللي إحنا حاطناهم ..
+
+255
+00:19:17,890 --> 00:19:21,170
+لكن لو إحنا السوق حقا وصل Alpha .. عارفين إيش معنى
+
+256
+00:19:21,170 --> 00:19:25,290
+Alpha؟ مالة نهاية .. إيش ربحنا في الحالة هذه؟ مالة
+
+257
+00:19:25,290 --> 00:19:29,390
+نهاية ..شوفتوا كيف .. شوفتوا كيف ال investment بي
+
+258
+00:19:29,390 --> 00:19:33,770
+.. بي .. بيش بيسوي بيعمل infinity for your profits
+
+259
+00:19:33,770 --> 00:19:39,970
+and limited your risk هذا بيسموه H هذا بيسموه تحوط
+
+260
+00:19:39,970 --> 00:19:43,670
+تحوط from the opposite direction of the markets
+
+261
+00:19:43,670 --> 00:19:45,950
+ايش ال opposite direction؟ ال opposite direction
+
+262
+00:19:45,950 --> 00:19:50,350
+انه ينخفض السوق طب لو أخدنا شغر اسمه bought option
+
+263
+00:19:50,350 --> 00:19:54,300
+عكسه تماماهذا اسمه call option في شغل اسمها put
+
+264
+00:19:54,300 --> 00:19:59,320
+option الموضوع هتختلف كل ما بنزل السوق لتحت كل ما
+
+265
+00:19:59,320 --> 00:20:02,560
+انا ال infinity تبعتي الربح بكون infinity و كل ما
+
+266
+00:20:02,560 --> 00:20:07,540
+السوق بطلع لفوق بكون الخسارة تبعتي محدودة عكس هذا
+
+267
+00:20:07,540 --> 00:20:11,380
+تماما عكسه تماما كل ما السوق بنزل لتحت الربح
+
+268
+00:20:11,380 --> 00:20:15,160
+infinity و كل ما السوق بطلع لفوق بكون الربح just 2
+
+269
+00:20:15,160 --> 00:20:20,520
+$أو أفضل خسارة هنا two dollar you lose only two
+
+270
+00:20:20,520 --> 00:20:25,260
+dollar when the market is go up but your profit is
+
+271
+00:20:25,260 --> 00:20:29,460
+infinity if the market go down هذا في حالة شغل
+
+272
+00:20:29,460 --> 00:20:33,220
+اسمها pot option طبعا هذا ال details سناخده في
+
+273
+00:20:33,220 --> 00:20:39,280
+chapter 11 شفتوا
+
+274
+00:20:39,280 --> 00:20:44,660
+كيف ال investment بيغير كتير من من سلوك ال risk
+
+275
+00:20:44,660 --> 00:20:45,400
+والمخاطر
+
+276
+00:20:48,700 --> 00:20:53,060
+الأن سنتحدث عن السوق الاجتماعي و الاقتصاد لأن
+
+277
+00:20:53,060 --> 00:21:00,560
+الاستثمار كما ذكرناه قبلها الحواسب الحقيقية تدفع
+
+278
+00:21:00,560 --> 00:21:07,820
+قيمة للاقتصاد الشركات تعمل و تصنع 2 أشياء، خدمات
+
+279
+00:21:07,820 --> 00:21:13,920
+جيدة و أموال. الآن بسبب هذا الاتصال السوق
+
+280
+00:21:13,920 --> 00:21:19,740
+الاجتماعي يعتبر كسيارةas a vehicle to transferring
+
+281
+00:21:19,740 --> 00:21:24,720
+the real assets into financial assets الأسواق
+
+282
+00:21:24,720 --> 00:21:27,180
+المالية شو بتسوي؟ هي as a vehicle عارفين مش معناه
+
+283
+00:21:27,180 --> 00:21:31,320
+vehicle؟ vehicle يعني زي مركبة بتنقل ال real
+
+284
+00:21:31,320 --> 00:21:35,480
+assets to the financial assets مين المنقل لهذا
+
+285
+00:21:35,480 --> 00:21:39,240
+الموضوع؟ هو ال financial marketsSo how the
+
+286
+00:21:39,240 --> 00:21:41,980
+financial markets influence in the economy؟ كيف
+
+287
+00:21:41,980 --> 00:21:45,500
+بتأثر على الأسواق على الاقتصاد؟ إذا في عندنا
+
+288
+00:21:45,500 --> 00:21:49,720
+activated financial markets it means the car or
+
+289
+00:21:49,720 --> 00:21:54,380
+the vehicle will be faster هتكون السيارة أسرع وإذا
+
+290
+00:21:54,380 --> 00:21:57,800
+كان في عندنا weaknesses financial markets it means
+
+291
+00:21:57,800 --> 00:22:03,000
+it delay the car or the vehicleهتخليها إيش؟ تبطأ
+
+292
+00:22:03,000 --> 00:22:06,860
+دي ليه يعني إيش؟ اتبطئها أو تأخرها يعني إذا كان
+
+293
+00:22:06,860 --> 00:22:11,460
+عند أسواق مالية قوية وكفوة هيكون قدرة الاقتصاد على
+
+294
+00:22:11,460 --> 00:22:14,520
+تحويل ال real assets into financial assets عالية
+
+295
+00:22:14,520 --> 00:22:19,060
+كتير very efficient إذا كان عندنا الاقتصاد أو
+
+296
+00:22:19,060 --> 00:22:21,180
+عندنا الأسواق المالية ضعيفة ال financial markets
+
+297
+00:22:21,180 --> 00:22:25,120
+ضعيفة هيكسير انه ال transfer of the real assets
+
+298
+00:22:25,120 --> 00:22:30,520
+into the financial assets is very weakهتكون ضعيفة
+
+299
+00:22:30,520 --> 00:22:35,440
+وبالتالي إذا كان هذه ال relationship ضعيفة هتكون
+
+300
+00:22:35,440 --> 00:22:38,240
+there is no adding value to the economy مش هيكون
+
+301
+00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:43,020
+في زيادة بالاقتصاد، إذا هذا كله متكامل الصناعة
+
+302
+00:22:43,020 --> 00:22:45,880
+بتكون متطورة ال financial market متطور بكون عندي
+
+303
+00:22:45,880 --> 00:22:49,220
+ال .. ال .. ال adding value to the economy is high
+
+304
+00:22:50,200 --> 00:22:54,420
+طيب خلينا نيجي نحكي how these things work كيف ممكن
+
+305
+00:22:54,420 --> 00:22:56,920
+هذه الأشياء تشتغل the first thing is the
+
+306
+00:22:56,920 --> 00:22:59,900
+information rule ايش ال information rule what it
+
+307
+00:22:59,900 --> 00:23:05,640
+means أكيد جريته فيها دور المعرفة دور المعلومات
+
+308
+00:23:05,640 --> 00:23:12,700
+how the information rule inspire the economy كيف
+
+309
+00:23:12,700 --> 00:23:13,920
+بيتمشف الاقتصاد
+
+310
+00:23:18,680 --> 00:23:22,140
+أحنا أعطينالكم ال introduction المقدمة إن ال
+
+311
+00:23:22,140 --> 00:23:25,220
+financial market is the vehicle that is
+
+312
+00:23:25,220 --> 00:23:28,200
+transferring the real asset into the financial
+
+313
+00:23:28,200 --> 00:23:32,320
+assets if we have weak financial markets it will
+
+314
+00:23:32,320 --> 00:23:35,360
+be delayed if we have strong markets it means it
+
+315
+00:23:35,360 --> 00:23:39,560
+will be faster طيب واحدة من العوامل اللي بتخلي
+
+316
+00:23:39,560 --> 00:23:43,640
+تعمل تسريع في الاقتصاد ل information rule how this
+
+317
+00:23:43,640 --> 00:23:46,080
+come؟ كيك ممكن يصير؟ فضل
+
+318
+00:23:51,610 --> 00:23:55,570
+بدائل كيف بناء على .. كيهش البدائل؟ يعني مثلا ان
+
+319
+00:23:55,570 --> 00:23:58,590
+دوستيشن بطل مشروع فالمعلومات هي غير بطل غير معلم
+
+320
+00:23:58,590 --> 00:24:01,930
+يعني المعلومات هي غير يعني توجهني يعني هو مشروع
+
+321
+00:24:01,930 --> 00:24:05,630
+أفضل how كيف المعلومات بتتوجهني هذا الموضوع بناء
+
+322
+00:24:05,630 --> 00:24:08,530
+على إيش؟ راسي المعلومات؟ فضل
+
+323
+00:24:26,850 --> 00:24:31,670
+السوق من خلال المعلومات هو السوق the market is
+
+324
+00:24:31,670 --> 00:24:40,840
+smart السوق ذكى if the market is as a manSo he is
+
+325
+00:24:40,840 --> 00:24:44,620
+smart and he knows which company has a future
+
+326
+00:24:44,620 --> 00:24:50,020
+prospect and which company has a bad prospect يعني
+
+327
+00:24:50,020 --> 00:24:53,740
+السوق بعرف أو بيطلع معلومات مين الشركات اللي ناجحة
+
+328
+00:24:53,740 --> 00:24:55,400
+و مين الشركات اللي فاشلة
+
+329
+00:24:59,440 --> 00:25:05,180
+yes which company has a good prospect يعني مستقبل
+
+330
+00:25:05,180 --> 00:25:09,220
+جيد has a good future and which company has a bad
+
+331
+00:25:09,220 --> 00:25:15,400
+future فالسوق هيش هيسمح هيسمح فقط للشركات with a
+
+332
+00:25:15,400 --> 00:25:19,680
+strong profile strong profile عارفينش يعني with a
+
+333
+00:25:19,680 --> 00:25:23,560
+strong record so if all of companies in the
+
+334
+00:25:23,560 --> 00:25:26,320
+financial market with a strong profile it means
+
+335
+00:25:26,320 --> 00:25:29,730
+adding value to the economyإذا كان كل الشركات اللي
+
+336
+00:25:29,730 --> 00:25:35,370
+في السوق عندهم استثمارات قوية هت .. تعطي قدرة
+
+337
+00:25:35,370 --> 00:25:37,730
+كبيرة للسوق يعني for .. for instance if you have
+
+338
+00:25:37,730 --> 00:25:39,670
+information now the information rule if you have
+
+339
+00:25:39,670 --> 00:25:43,450
+information that this company investing in a bad
+
+340
+00:25:43,450 --> 00:25:47,110
+record invest .. investments so you invest or not
+
+341
+00:25:47,990 --> 00:25:52,670
+هل تشتري شركات الشركة او لا؟ سؤالي هو لك الآن إذا
+
+342
+00:25:52,670 --> 00:25:55,910
+كنت كانت شركة مستخدمة تكون لديك معلومات عن شركة
+
+343
+00:25:55,910 --> 00:26:00,950
+معينة أن هذه الشركة لديها مستقبل سيئ لذا هل تشتري
+
+344
+00:26:00,950 --> 00:26:05,850
+او لا؟ لست تشتري لذا السيارات الآن تتوقف عن العمل
+
+345
+00:26:05,850 --> 00:26:13,570
+و الشركة ستغادر السوق فالسوق فقط يحافظ على الشركات
+
+346
+00:26:13,570 --> 00:26:17,860
+التي تحتوي على مستوى عاليواضحة يعني السوق الملبس
+
+347
+00:26:17,860 --> 00:26:21,600
+محتفظ في الشركات القوية and others they will leave
+
+348
+00:26:21,600 --> 00:26:27,200
+the markets yeah kick them out بطلعهم برا so شفتوا
+
+349
+00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:30,220
+كيف ال market بيعمل على إيش filtering the
+
+350
+00:26:30,220 --> 00:26:34,430
+companies justOkay guys strong people here and
+
+351
+00:26:34,430 --> 00:26:37,690
+weak people here just these strong people be in
+
+352
+00:26:37,690 --> 00:26:40,290
+the market and these people be outside the markets
+
+353
+00:26:40,290 --> 00:26:43,670
+so what the companies do in this case the weak
+
+354
+00:26:43,670 --> 00:26:46,830
+markets or the weak companies try to promote
+
+355
+00:26:46,830 --> 00:26:50,310
+themselves promote يعني يحسنوا حالهم they try to
+
+356
+00:26:50,310 --> 00:26:52,390
+compete other companies in order to keep
+
+357
+00:26:52,390 --> 00:26:55,050
+themselves in the market عشان يحافظوا على السوق؟
+
+358
+00:26:55,050 --> 00:26:58,910
+بالظبط عشان يظلوا موجودين في السوقOkay because we
+
+359
+00:26:58,910 --> 00:27:01,930
+are living in a very high competition environment
+
+360
+00:27:01,930 --> 00:27:06,170
+if we fail to face the competition it means we
+
+361
+00:27:06,170 --> 00:27:08,490
+will leave the market شوفتوا كيف ال information
+
+362
+00:27:08,490 --> 00:27:13,270
+rule is important this is why the companies has to
+
+363
+00:27:13,270 --> 00:27:18,530
+disclose the information to the public this is why
+
+364
+00:27:18,530 --> 00:27:21,810
+again underline what I'm saying this is why
+
+365
+00:27:22,860 --> 00:27:27,660
+companies have to disclose the information to the
+
+366
+00:27:27,660 --> 00:27:32,660
+public يعني عشان هيك الشركات لازم to disclose
+
+367
+00:27:32,660 --> 00:27:36,190
+عارفين شو معناه disclose؟تنشو بياناتها لل public
+
+368
+00:27:36,190 --> 00:27:38,790
+even the private information or the public
+
+369
+00:27:38,790 --> 00:27:42,590
+information because investors are smart and they
+
+370
+00:27:42,590 --> 00:27:45,670
+analyze this information and then decide whether
+
+371
+00:27:45,670 --> 00:27:49,190
+this company has a good future prospect or a bad
+
+372
+00:27:49,190 --> 00:27:54,980
+future prospect شفتوا كيف الدنيا بتمشي؟فعشان هيك
+
+373
+00:27:54,980 --> 00:27:57,940
+احنا بالشركات تبعتنا ادخلولي على ال website تبعت
+
+374
+00:27:57,940 --> 00:28:02,280
+ال Palestine Stock Exchange وادخلولي على الشركات
+
+375
+00:28:02,280 --> 00:28:05,020
+الأمريكية أو بريطانية أو أوروبية شوفوا the amount
+
+376
+00:28:05,020 --> 00:28:07,660
+of information about these companies and amount of
+
+377
+00:28:07,660 --> 00:28:11,240
+information about these companies and see even a
+
+378
+00:28:11,240 --> 00:28:14,800
+very little information very little information is
+
+379
+00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:18,260
+this close to the public even you know the number
+
+380
+00:28:18,260 --> 00:28:24,530
+of employeesand how much the executives yield from
+
+381
+00:28:24,530 --> 00:28:28,730
+the company يعني رواتب الموظفين الكبار منشورة على
+
+382
+00:28:28,730 --> 00:28:32,810
+القوائم تباعت الشركات طب احنا عندنا لهذا الكلام
+
+383
+00:28:32,810 --> 00:28:38,270
+مستحيل صح؟ عشان تشوفوا اهم معنى المعلومات كام مهمة
+
+384
+00:28:38,270 --> 00:28:40,530
+عشان تساعد ال investors to take the decision
+
+385
+00:28:40,530 --> 00:28:45,450
+consumption timing this is a very important and
+
+386
+00:28:45,450 --> 00:28:47,630
+this is important to you because you are in the
+
+387
+00:28:47,630 --> 00:28:52,520
+early stages of your lifeإيش حكيت أنا؟ this is a
+
+388
+00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:55,100
+very important to you because you are in the early
+
+389
+00:28:55,100 --> 00:29:00,160
+stages of your life هذا مهم لكوا ليش؟ ليش مهم
+
+390
+00:29:00,160 --> 00:29:03,740
+لكوا؟ لأن انتوا you are in the early stages of
+
+391
+00:29:03,740 --> 00:29:09,060
+your life بداية حياتكم okay what it means what it
+
+392
+00:29:09,060 --> 00:29:12,160
+means for companies what it means for investors
+
+393
+00:29:12,160 --> 00:29:18,580
+now investors generally speaking investors have to
+
+394
+00:29:19,450 --> 00:29:22,990
+consumption times and two investment times in
+
+395
+00:29:22,990 --> 00:29:26,990
+their early ages في فترات البداية الحياة تبعتهم
+
+396
+00:29:26,990 --> 00:29:33,790
+they earn more they earn more يعني بياخدوا فلوس
+
+397
+00:29:33,790 --> 00:29:39,210
+كتير يعني خلينا نحكي مثلا وانتوا عمركم من عشرين
+
+398
+00:29:39,210 --> 00:29:46,730
+لاربعين سنة you earn more ال earning
+
+399
+00:29:50,810 --> 00:29:58,210
+is greater than the consumption ال
+
+400
+00:29:58,210 --> 00:30:01,570
+earning يعني الفلوس اللى بتدخل علينا اكتر من
+
+401
+00:30:01,570 --> 00:30:05,370
+الفلوس اللى بتطلع يعني بناخد فلوس فى فترة الحياة
+
+402
+00:30:05,370 --> 00:30:07,430
+اللى عمره من العشرين لاربعين او من عشرين لخمسين
+
+403
+00:30:07,430 --> 00:30:12,350
+and after forties or even after fifties it will be
+
+404
+00:30:12,350 --> 00:30:17,730
+the opposite نستهلك اكتر لانه بنكبر فبصير عندنا
+
+405
+00:30:17,730 --> 00:30:18,930
+the consumption
+
+406
+00:30:22,040 --> 00:30:27,540
+is greater than earnings in this case if you have
+
+407
+00:30:27,540 --> 00:30:31,760
+like this case so what you can do إذا كان عندنا
+
+408
+00:30:31,760 --> 00:30:34,480
+الحالة هذه what you can do then يعني طبيعي اليوم
+
+409
+00:30:34,480 --> 00:30:37,520
+مثلا أبواتكم ما شاء الله عليهم أو أخواتكم أو
+
+410
+00:30:37,520 --> 00:30:43,900
+أخوانكم في فترة هذه they earn more طيب to invest
+
+411
+00:30:43,900 --> 00:30:50,310
+إذا حلنا المشكلة هذه إيش؟Why we invest? Because in
+
+412
+00:30:50,310 --> 00:30:55,390
+a time of earning higher than the consumption, we
+
+413
+00:30:55,390 --> 00:30:59,510
+have saving. So this saving, we need instruments
+
+414
+00:30:59,510 --> 00:31:04,270
+to store this money for the future useيعني احنا
+
+415
+00:31:04,270 --> 00:31:08,230
+هناخد الفلوس هذه اللي هتزيد عن حاجتنا و بالتالي
+
+416
+00:31:08,230 --> 00:31:12,550
+نروح نعملها investment في أدوات تستطيع تحفظني
+
+417
+00:31:12,550 --> 00:31:18,030
+القيمة للمستقبل stocks و bonds؟ do we have like
+
+418
+00:31:18,030 --> 00:31:20,330
+this culture in our life؟ هل عندنا هذه ال culture
+
+419
+00:31:20,330 --> 00:31:23,760
+في حياتنا ولا لأ؟some people they do and others
+
+420
+00:31:23,760 --> 00:31:28,600
+they don't يعني ممكن في ناس تروح عنده مثلا راتبه
+
+421
+00:31:28,600 --> 00:31:33,000
+1500 شكل خلاص بقولك مكفنيش ال 1500 شكل but if he
+
+422
+00:31:33,000 --> 00:31:36,720
+use it properly he may manage it ممكن يستخدمها
+
+423
+00:31:36,720 --> 00:31:40,940
+بطريقة صح okay if he use the personal finance
+
+424
+00:31:40,940 --> 00:31:46,160
+properly he can manage this so the solution is
+
+425
+00:31:46,160 --> 00:31:52,450
+investments so the investment it meansit means
+
+426
+00:31:52,450 --> 00:31:58,550
+when the time of consuming high higher than the
+
+427
+00:31:58,550 --> 00:32:02,590
+earnings so we can bring our money from what we
+
+428
+00:32:02,590 --> 00:32:07,790
+saved before عشان هيك بيقولوا القرش الأبيض ينفع
+
+429
+00:32:07,790 --> 00:32:11,950
+اليوم الأسود وطبيعي احنا لما كل إنسان بيكبر فبكون
+
+430
+00:32:11,950 --> 00:32:15,710
+ال earnings بتنخفضلأنه هيصير عنده ما شاء الله ولاد
+
+431
+00:32:15,710 --> 00:32:19,910
+و هيصير عنده بيت و هيصير عنده ولاد يروح الجامعة و
+
+432
+00:32:19,910 --> 00:32:24,990
+ها و يصير يصرف كتير و مافيش .. وبالتالي في .. في
+
+433
+00:32:24,990 --> 00:32:27,590
+مراحل بداية الحياة بيحتاج .. so the financial
+
+434
+00:32:27,590 --> 00:32:30,510
+markets facilitate this عشان نعمل linkage with the
+
+435
+00:32:30,510 --> 00:32:33,050
+financial markets فبتاخد من الناس اللي عندهم
+
+436
+00:32:33,050 --> 00:32:38,270
+higher earning than consumption بتعملهم investment
+
+437
+00:32:38,270 --> 00:32:41,590
+and when they grow up so they .. it's give them
+
+438
+00:32:42,860 --> 00:32:46,580
+فمعنى الكلام الناس اللي .. اللي اليوم الصغيرة in
+
+439
+00:32:46,580 --> 00:32:49,720
+the early stages they give them money for the
+
+440
+00:32:49,720 --> 00:32:53,860
+people with the old stages يعني طبيعي الناس الصغار
+
+441
+00:32:53,860 --> 00:33:02,640
+بيصيروا يعطوا الناس الكبيرة تفضل what does it say?
+
+442
+00:33:03,020 --> 00:33:07,800
+about what? consumption time or which one?
+
+443
+00:33:11,080 --> 00:33:15,620
+Financial markets facilitate .. facilitate يعني
+
+444
+00:33:15,620 --> 00:33:22,380
+بتسهل عملية store your money for the future use
+
+445
+00:33:22,380 --> 00:33:26,800
+يعني بتقدر انت من خلالها تستثمر في السوق المالي
+
+446
+00:33:26,800 --> 00:33:32,320
+عشان في المستقبل تاخد فلوسك بزيانةwhat is the
+
+447
+00:33:32,320 --> 00:33:39,640
+relation between
+
+448
+00:33:39,640 --> 00:33:42,620
+financial market and economy يعني لو كل واحد فينا
+
+449
+00:33:42,620 --> 00:33:45,960
+خليني احنا نفكر هذا لو كل واحد فينا نفكر في
+
+450
+00:33:45,960 --> 00:33:50,620
+الطريقة هذهإيش رح يصير؟ هصير إحنا معناها الفلوس
+
+451
+00:33:50,620 --> 00:33:55,320
+الزيادة، هنروح نستثمرها في شركات، الشركات هتنتج،
+
+452
+00:33:55,320 --> 00:33:58,740
+هتزيدلى الاقتصاد، الحكومة هتاخد ضرايب، هتحسنلى
+
+453
+00:33:58,740 --> 00:34:03,540
+الطرق، هتحسنلى المستشفيات، هتحسنلى كل إشي طب
+
+454
+00:34:03,540 --> 00:34:07,820
+تصوروا إنه الشخص اللي هان ماعملش saving، حط الفلوس
+
+455
+00:34:07,820 --> 00:34:11,260
+و راح صرفها على حاله بدون ما يعمل investments إيش
+
+456
+00:34:11,260 --> 00:34:16,450
+رح يصير؟ المصانع مش هتشتغلتمام؟ الحكومة مش هتاخد
+
+457
+00:34:16,450 --> 00:34:19,950
+درايب، الطروح هتظلها مكسرة، و المستشفيات هتكون
+
+458
+00:34:19,950 --> 00:34:24,490
+موضعها سيء، و الدنيا كلها موضعها سيء شفتوا كيف ..
+
+459
+00:34:24,490 --> 00:34:27,530
+كيف بتعمل ال financial markets؟ عشان هيك أرجع لل
+
+460
+00:34:27,530 --> 00:34:29,550
+definition ال financial market is a vehicle
+
+461
+00:34:29,550 --> 00:34:34,470
+vehicle يعني إيش؟ مركبة .. مركبة بتساعدنا ننتقل من
+
+462
+00:34:34,470 --> 00:34:37,050
+حالة إلى أخر okay؟
+
+463
+00:34:40,630 --> 00:34:42,870
+allocate of risk I explain what it means
+
+464
+00:34:42,870 --> 00:34:45,590
+allocation of risk allocation of risk انه احنا
+
+465
+00:34:45,590 --> 00:34:48,970
+نوزع المخاطر فال financial market هتوزعنا المخاطر
+
+466
+00:34:48,970 --> 00:34:52,650
+من من شركة الى اخرى so investors can select
+
+467
+00:34:52,650 --> 00:34:55,090
+securities consistent with their taste of risk
+
+468
+00:34:55,090 --> 00:35:01,030
+يعني ممكن يكون انا عندى allocation of risk لو
+
+469
+00:35:01,030 --> 00:35:05,350
+اجينا احنا هاي اللي احنا موجودين هنا كل واحد موجود
+
+470
+00:35:05,350 --> 00:35:12,500
+عندنا في القاع هنا عنده riskخاصة فيه في ناس they
+
+471
+00:35:12,500 --> 00:35:21,080
+prefer risk others they avoid risk others they are
+
+472
+00:35:21,080 --> 00:35:25,120
+risk neutral يعني في عندنا تلت أنواع من الناس عادة
+
+473
+00:35:25,120 --> 00:35:33,440
+في عندنا risk takers risk takers okay و عندنا risk
+
+474
+00:35:33,440 --> 00:35:38,820
+lovers risk takers risk avoiders
+
+475
+00:35:40,810 --> 00:35:46,690
+and risk neutrals، لدينا
+
+476
+00:35:46,690 --> 00:35:49,510
+تلاتة أنواع من ال risk risk takers هذي بيسموهم
+
+477
+00:35:49,510 --> 00:35:53,590
+risk lovers هدول بيحبوا المخاطر وفيه عندنا ال risk
+
+478
+00:35:53,590 --> 00:35:58,670
+avoiders بتجنبوا المخاطر وفي ناس عندنا ال risk
+
+479
+00:35:58,670 --> 00:36:04,790
+neutral طيب it's up to you then حسب أنتي وين راحت،
+
+480
+00:36:04,790 --> 00:36:09,710
+تسأل طبعا مين أحسن، مافيش فيها أحسن وأسوأال risk
+
+481
+00:36:09,710 --> 00:36:15,110
+يعني ال risk takers risk takers ناس بتاخدوا مخاطر
+
+482
+00:36:15,110 --> 00:36:22,130
+زي مين زي ال gamblers ال gamblers او
+
+483
+00:36:22,130 --> 00:36:28,590
+بيسميهم ال speculators ال risk avoiders هدول الناس
+
+484
+00:36:28,590 --> 00:36:31,790
+يعني مثلا زلم اختيار في السن كبير بدو يستثمر ..
+
+485
+00:36:31,790 --> 00:36:35,490
+بدو يستثمر فلوسه مش .. مقدرش ياخد مخاطر و إلا إذا
+
+486
+00:36:35,490 --> 00:36:39,500
+أخد مخاطر بيقولوا أنا في مستشفى الشفاف صح؟أه لأنه
+
+487
+00:36:39,500 --> 00:36:42,320
+بيصير ال prices of the financial market is highly
+
+488
+00:36:42,320 --> 00:36:46,340
+fluctuated and his heart attack is fluctuated too
+
+489
+00:36:46,340 --> 00:36:51,500
+يعني كمان ضربات الخلب هتزيد عنده لأنه بهذا السبب
+
+490
+00:36:51,500 --> 00:36:56,880
+بيكون risk neutral هو fair هو في النص يعني ممكن
+
+491
+00:36:56,880 --> 00:37:02,100
+مرات ياخد مخاطر و مرات ماياخدش مخاطرالعامة المالية
+
+492
+00:37:02,100 --> 00:37:07,400
+تساعدنا في تجارب المخاطر بين المخاطرين المخاطرين
+
+493
+00:37:07,400 --> 00:37:09,380
+المخاطرين المخاطرين المخاطرين المخاطرين المخاطرين
+
+494
+00:37:09,380 --> 00:37:09,600
+المخاطرين المخاطرين المخاطرين المخاطرين المخاطرين
+
+495
+00:37:09,600 --> 00:37:12,700
+المخاطرين المخاطرين المخاطرين المخاطرين المخاطرين
+
+496
+00:37:12,700 --> 00:37:12,900
+المخاطرين المخاطرين المخاطرين المخاطرين المخاطرين
+
+497
+00:37:12,900 --> 00:37:14,400
+المخاطرين المخاطرين المخاطرين المخاطرين المخاطرين
+
+498
+00:37:14,400 --> 00:37:15,860
+المخاطرين المخاطرين المخاطرين المخاطرين المخاطرين
+
+499
+00:37:15,860 --> 00:37:17,460
+المخاطرين المخاطرين المخاطرين المخاطرين المخاطرين
+
+500
+00:37:17,460 --> 00:37:28,860
+المخاطرين المخاطرين المخاطرين المخ
+
+501
+00:37:32,250 --> 00:37:39,310
+the financial markets one of the instructions of
+
+502
+00:37:39,310 --> 00:37:41,990
+the financial markets and management that
+
+503
+00:37:41,990 --> 00:37:45,510
+companies has that companies have to do separation
+
+504
+00:37:45,510 --> 00:37:49,810
+between the ownership and the management لازم يكون
+
+505
+00:37:49,810 --> 00:37:54,770
+فصل بين الإدارة و بين الملاك ليش؟ مين بيقدر يقول
+
+506
+00:37:54,770 --> 00:37:59,330
+لي ليش لازم يكون في فصل حسب قرائتكم بين إدارة
+
+507
+00:37:59,330 --> 00:38:00,630
+الشركة و بين ملاك الشركة
+
+508
+00:38:07,130 --> 00:38:10,470
+Okay ليش لازم يكون فيه فاصل بين إدارة الشركة و
+
+509
+00:38:10,470 --> 00:38:17,470
+إقمالها في الشركة؟
+
+510
+00:38:17,470 --> 00:38:22,270
+أه ليه بتأكد من ..؟ ممكن أن أحد أشخاص في الشركة
+
+511
+00:38:22,270 --> 00:38:25,990
+يجيب حاجة لحاجة معينة أو ممكن أن يكون مش دارس
+
+512
+00:38:25,990 --> 00:38:29,570
+الإدارة كويس بالظبط هي سبب أين؟ بفضلك
+
+513
+00:38:34,710 --> 00:38:39,950
+تعرفى جامعة شو حكت؟ بتكون هم بيصيروا مصالحهم ..
+
+514
+00:38:39,950 --> 00:38:44,850
+مصالح الملاك أهم مصالح الشركة فعشان هيك لازم نعمل
+
+515
+00:38:44,850 --> 00:38:49,850
+separation طيب عملنا separation كيف بيصير ال
+
+516
+00:38:49,850 --> 00:38:53,670
+separation؟ بيكون عندها هنا ال honors .. اتبعوا لل
+
+517
+00:38:53,670 --> 00:38:59,590
+story هذه honors .. ال honors they elect ..
+
+518
+00:38:59,590 --> 00:39:05,280
+بنتخبوا the board of directorsمظبوط؟ أخدتوه هدف
+
+519
+00:39:05,280 --> 00:39:09,440
+المحاسب وطبعا ال share holders هم ال owners they
+
+520
+00:39:09,440 --> 00:39:12,180
+elect the board of directors اللي هو أعضاء مجلس
+
+521
+00:39:12,180 --> 00:39:16,620
+إدارة بيمتخبوهم then the board of directors select
+
+522
+00:39:16,620 --> 00:39:24,420
+the executives or managers managers بختاروا ال
+
+523
+00:39:24,420 --> 00:39:27,900
+managers هذا بيسموه separation طب و احنا عملنا
+
+524
+00:39:27,900 --> 00:39:32,360
+separation إيش اللي راح يصير في الشركة؟واجدوا بال
+
+525
+00:39:32,360 --> 00:39:35,160
+financial markets لما احنا عملنا separation روحنا
+
+526
+00:39:35,160 --> 00:39:39,760
+بععدنا الملاك و خلينا بس ال managers هم اللي بتحكم
+
+527
+00:39:39,760 --> 00:39:45,200
+الشركة and the managers are human beings ايش يعني
+
+528
+00:39:45,200 --> 00:39:49,880
+و ال managers ايش هم .. are human beings يعني بناء
+
+529
+00:39:49,880 --> 00:39:54,560
+أدمين so they have their own interest so
+
+530
+00:39:54,560 --> 00:39:59,240
+accordingly managers prefer their own interest
+
+531
+00:39:59,240 --> 00:40:00,960
+over the company interest
+
+532
+00:40:04,080 --> 00:40:08,340
+فهمتوها؟ بالظبط صار يفضلوا مصالح الشخصية على مصالح
+
+533
+00:40:08,340 --> 00:40:13,140
+الشركة so if they want to take a decision first
+
+534
+00:40:13,140 --> 00:40:15,400
+thing they evaluate what is the benefit of
+
+535
+00:40:15,400 --> 00:40:19,310
+themselves before taking the decisionif the
+
+536
+00:40:19,310 --> 00:40:23,770
+decision help them or increase their benefits so
+
+537
+00:40:23,770 --> 00:40:27,370
+they will take this otherwise they reject the
+
+538
+00:40:27,370 --> 00:40:30,190
+decision يعني إذا هم قرروا بدمي عملوا استثمار و
+
+539
+00:40:30,190 --> 00:40:34,530
+لجوا هذا الاستثمار في مخاطر و ممكن يطلوهم من
+
+540
+00:40:34,530 --> 00:40:38,530
+الشركة فبروحوش على الاستثمار هذا زي ما احنا عندنا
+
+541
+00:40:38,530 --> 00:40:42,050
+مثلا ممكن تكون بالبيئة العربية تبعتنا إذا احنا في
+
+542
+00:40:42,050 --> 00:40:46,530
+عندنا استثمارو المدير بده يروح هذا استثمار و
+
+543
+00:40:46,530 --> 00:40:51,570
+يستثمر فالمدير ممكن يخاف ان صاحب المشروع يطرده اذا
+
+544
+00:40:51,570 --> 00:40:55,810
+.. اذا فشل المشروع فبالتالي ايش؟ بنروح باختار
+
+545
+00:40:55,810 --> 00:41:01,490
+مشاريع سهلة عشان ما يطردوهاش بس هذا غلط لازم احنا
+
+546
+00:41:01,490 --> 00:41:04,850
+نشجع ال investors .. ال managers انه to take some
+
+547
+00:41:04,850 --> 00:41:09,350
+time to take risk لازم يتاخدوا مخاطر عشان مشارع ..
+
+548
+00:41:09,350 --> 00:41:14,020
+في مشاريع تحتاج إلى مخاطرففي الحالة هذه ال
+
+549
+00:41:14,020 --> 00:41:17,320
+managers إذا كان بمصلحتهم ينفذوا المشروع هينفذوه
+
+550
+00:41:17,320 --> 00:41:20,720
+إذا مش بمصلحتهم مش هينفذوه هذا إيش بيسميه agency
+
+551
+00:41:20,720 --> 00:41:26,720
+problem إيش بيسميه agency problem كيف بنتحل ال
+
+552
+00:41:26,720 --> 00:41:31,660
+agency problem how we ensure that managers they
+
+553
+00:41:31,660 --> 00:41:35,500
+work for the business objectives not for their
+
+554
+00:41:35,500 --> 00:41:36,640
+personal objectives
+
+555
+00:41:43,210 --> 00:41:46,710
+مش أكيد، مش أكيد، هذا إذا احنا بالحالة طبعتنا ممكن
+
+556
+00:41:46,710 --> 00:41:50,390
+يصير إيه، okay؟ so how we ensure this؟ يعني كيف
+
+557
+00:41:50,390 --> 00:41:53,150
+ممكن نتأكد؟ خليني أنا .. بناها تفكروا في الموضوع،
+
+558
+00:41:53,150 --> 00:41:58,470
+كيف احنا .. لحظة بس، كيف ممكن نوجد طريقة .. نوجد
+
+559
+00:41:58,470 --> 00:42:03,930
+طريقة بحيث أنه نتأكد أن هدول المدرة صحيح ممكن
+
+560
+00:42:03,930 --> 00:42:07,550
+يحققوا أهدافهم، لكن بالأساس لازم يحققوا أهداف
+
+561
+00:42:07,550 --> 00:42:13,790
+المشروع أعطوني .. أعطوني فكرة كيف ممكن نسويعطينا
+
+562
+00:42:13,790 --> 00:42:18,450
+من البنات اللي ورا لنسمع صوتهم البنات اللي ورا انا
+
+563
+00:42:18,450 --> 00:42:21,610
+طبعا هين حكينا المرة اللي جاي البنات اللي
+
+564
+00:42:21,610 --> 00:42:25,290
+مابشاركوش يعني على الأقل يعني و أعطوني ideas انا
+
+565
+00:42:25,290 --> 00:42:29,470
+هأختار أسماء من هان و انا ديهم to ensure ان الكل
+
+566
+00:42:29,470 --> 00:42:33,190
+بيعمل participation اه تفضلي مثلا اذا كان مثلا
+
+567
+00:42:33,190 --> 00:42:37,650
+مبلغ شخصية أحافظ أفضل سنة مثلا مبلغ 15 أفضل مثلا
+
+568
+00:42:37,650 --> 00:42:44,270
+اه احنا نحافظ و ندل المبلغ نحافظ واحد فيه مثلاOkay
+
+569
+00:42:44,270 --> 00:42:48,690
+إذا هذا إيش نسويها؟ compensation انه أنا ب .. ب ..
+
+570
+00:42:48,690 --> 00:42:52,230
+بعمل linking .. بعمل linking لل object .. your
+
+571
+00:42:52,230 --> 00:42:55,390
+personal objective with the company objective عشان
+
+572
+00:42:55,390 --> 00:42:58,770
+نتأكد من الكلام هذا لازم نعمل شغل اسمه corporate
+
+573
+00:42:58,770 --> 00:43:04,570
+governance corporate governance لأ corporate
+
+574
+00:43:04,570 --> 00:43:10,450
+governance حوكمة حوكمة نعمل .. اسمعتوا في كلمة
+
+575
+00:43:10,450 --> 00:43:16,310
+الحوكمة هذه؟نعمل حوكمة سمعتوا في الحوكمة قبل هيك؟
+
+576
+00:43:16,310 --> 00:43:20,750
+بدكم تاخدوها طيب okay so I will leave you in this
+
+577
+00:43:20,750 --> 00:43:24,410
+point and next meeting we will talk about the
+
+578
+00:43:24,410 --> 00:43:29,530
+governance الحوكمة
+
+579
+00:43:34,270 --> 00:43:38,670
+لأ مش حكومة هي how كما انا مش هحكيكوا إيش معناها
+
+580
+00:43:38,670 --> 00:43:41,530
+لان لإن المرة الجاية هابد أشوفها إنتوا كيف
+
+581
+00:43:41,530 --> 00:43:46,630
+هتفهموها ال how كما اه
+
+582
+00:43:46,630 --> 00:43:50,110
+بدنا نشوف I will leave this question for the next
+
+583
+00:43:50,110 --> 00:43:54,070
+meeting هنسيب هذا السؤال ل next meeting and I will
+
+584
+00:43:54,070 --> 00:44:00,170
+start from the topيعني هالو ال bottom مكان مسموهم
+
+585
+00:44:00,170 --> 00:44:03,590
+ال .. the first row is the bottom and the last row
+
+586
+00:44:03,590 --> 00:44:07,290
+is the .. the top بنربده من الورا نشوف كيف الوضع
+
+587
+00:44:07,290 --> 00:44:12,030
+تبعهم okay بيجيوا عند هذا الحد و تذكروا أنه ال ..
+
+588
+00:44:12,030 --> 00:44:18,650
+السؤال تبعنا الحوك بقى هنسأل
+
+589
+00:44:18,650 --> 00:44:22,850
+السؤال هذا اللقاء الجاي بس ت .. بس ن .. نرجع و ن
+
+590
+00:44:22,850 --> 00:44:27,490
+.. نذكركوا في اللي حكينا اليومحكينا اليوم عن
+
+591
+00:44:27,490 --> 00:44:34,050
+derivatives على المشتقات المشتقات بتساعدنا على
+
+592
+00:44:34,050 --> 00:44:40,090
+التحوط من المخاطر، توزيع المخاطر، نقل المخاطر من
+
+593
+00:44:40,090 --> 00:44:43,530
+طرف إلى آخر، بعدين حكينا عن علاقة بين الاقتصاد و
+
+594
+00:44:43,530 --> 00:44:47,090
+بين الأسواق المالية و كيف الأسواق المالية بتساعد
+
+595
+00:44:47,090 --> 00:44:50,690
+على تنمية الاقتصادية و تسريع العلاقة بين ال real
+
+596
+00:44:50,690 --> 00:44:54,320
+asset و بين ال financial assetsOkay يعطيكم العافية
+
+597
+00:44:54,320 --> 00:44:55,240
+و نشوف ال ..
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/SyEGhcuMf7Y_raw.json b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/SyEGhcuMf7Y_raw.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..0c4b02094195d76c77c0d13507e79789dac1af2a
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/SyEGhcuMf7Y_raw.json
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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how the bank transfer the risk money يعني بمثله طبعا شركة هاي يعني ال bank هذا فيه له فلوس في عند ال bank فلوس طبع الشركة هاي يعني", "tokens": [3555, 4587, 7578, 294, 341, 1389, 577, 264, 3765, 5003, 264, 4386, 291, 366, 558, 4724, 4587, 7578, 577, 264, 3765, 5003, 264, 3148, 1460, 37495, 22653, 4724, 2304, 12984, 43761, 23032, 3555, 3615, 995, 13412, 31747, 3660, 8032, 47302, 37495, 22653, 2423, 3765, 23758, 8978, 3224, 46740, 6156, 1211, 41779, 8978, 43242, 2423, 3765, 6156, 1211, 41779, 23032, 3555, 3615, 25124, 31747, 3660, 8032, 47302, 37495, 22653], "avg_logprob": -0.462182967559151, "compression_ratio": 1.6772151898734178, "no_speech_prob": 5.960464477539063e-08, "words": [{"start": 317.05, "end": 317.63, "word": "بقى", "probability": 0.4413248697916667}, {"start": 317.63, "end": 317.91, "word": " in", "probability": 0.52978515625}, {"start": 317.91, "end": 318.09, "word": " this", "probability": 0.97021484375}, {"start": 318.09, "end": 319.29, "word": " case", "probability": 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"probability": 0.9951171875}, {"start": 711.69, "end": 711.71, "word": " هتج", "probability": 0.9947916666666666}, {"start": 711.71, "end": 711.71, "word": " هتج", "probability": 0.9944661458333334}, {"start": 711.71, "end": 711.71, "word": " هتج", "probability": 0.9949544270833334}, {"start": 711.71, "end": 711.71, "word": " هتج", "probability": 0.99462890625}, {"start": 711.71, "end": 712.49, "word": " هتج", "probability": 0.99462890625}, {"start": 712.49, "end": 712.95, "word": " هتج", "probability": 0.99462890625}, {"start": 712.95, "end": 720.35, "word": " هتج", "probability": 0.994140625}, {"start": 720.35, "end": 722.79, "word": " هت", "probability": 0.99755859375}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 28, "seek": 75328, "start": 723.8, "end": 753.28, "text": "هيدج هيدج يعني دفع مخاطر مش transfer risk هي هيدج زي مثال ناخد مثال المرة الفاترة حكينا بدنا نشري سهم نعطي مثال how to use hedge كيف احنا ممكن نستخدم الهيدج المرة الفاترة حكينا اتفقنا انه لو كان سعر السهم عشرين دولار", "tokens": 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"word": " احنا", "probability": 0.8665364583333334}, {"start": 740.6, "end": 740.82, "word": " ممكن", "probability": 0.9619140625}, {"start": 740.82, "end": 741.18, "word": " نستخدم", "probability": 0.994384765625}, {"start": 741.18, "end": 742.88, "word": " الهيدج", "probability": 0.8975830078125}, {"start": 742.88, "end": 748.16, "word": " المرة", "probability": 0.976806640625}, {"start": 748.16, "end": 748.42, "word": " الفاترة", "probability": 0.9329427083333334}, {"start": 748.42, "end": 748.9, "word": " حكينا", "probability": 0.9666748046875}, {"start": 748.9, "end": 750.1, "word": " اتفقنا", "probability": 0.958984375}, {"start": 750.1, "end": 750.56, "word": " انه", "probability": 0.845458984375}, {"start": 750.56, "end": 751.84, "word": " لو", "probability": 0.982421875}, {"start": 751.84, "end": 752.06, "word": " كان", "probability": 0.9931640625}, {"start": 752.06, "end": 752.36, "word": " سعر", "probability": 0.9951171875}, {"start": 752.36, "end": 752.68, "word": " السهم", 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a big equation طبعا مش دوركم ان انتوا تعرفوا how to calculate the two dollar لأن هاي في معادلة كبيرة زي من هن والباب المعادلة عشان ايه؟ to calculate how we estimate two dollar يعني كيف نطلع ال two dollar هدوة okay so", "tokens": [3555, 1863, 32887, 5016, 15844, 2423, 4386, 2423, 4386, 2423, 4669, 2142, 4724, 1829, 5016, 4117, 12610, 8315, 1975, 5016, 8315, 44945, 9566, 46152, 732, 7241, 15844, 8717, 25957, 1211, 19442, 11778, 3224, 2423, 3218, 8717, 12984, 3555, 2655, 23275, 21136, 3615, 2288, 577, 436, 6997, 732, 7241, 436, 362, 257, 955, 5367, 23032, 3555, 3615, 995, 37893, 11778, 13063, 24793, 16472, 16472, 2655, 14407, 37279, 28480, 14407, 577, 281, 8873, 264, 732, 7241, 5296, 33456, 8032, 47302, 8978, 20449, 18513, 37977, 9122, 3555, 48923, 30767, 1829, 9154, 8032, 1863, 16070, 3555, 16758, 9673, 3615, 18513, 37977, 6225, 8592, 7649, 1975, 1829, 3224, 22807, 281, 8873, 577, 321, 12539, 732, 7241, 37495, 22653, 9122, 33911, 8717, 9566, 1211, 3615, 2423, 732, 7241, 8032, 3215, 2407, 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فترة الحياة اللى عمره من العشرين لاربعين او من عشرين لخمسين and after forties or even after fifties it will be the opposite نستهلك اكتر لانه بنكبر فبصير عندنا the consumption", "tokens": [271, 5044, 813, 264, 12126, 2423, 12353, 37495, 22653, 27188, 1211, 41779, 13672, 7578, 39894, 3215, 9778, 1211, 25894, 8315, 1975, 4117, 2655, 2288, 9154, 27188, 1211, 41779, 13672, 7578, 39894, 9566, 1211, 3615, 37495, 22653, 44945, 47283, 3215, 6156, 1211, 41779, 6156, 7578, 6156, 2655, 25720, 21542, 25528, 3660, 13672, 7578, 6225, 29973, 3224, 9154, 18863, 46309, 9957, 5296, 9640, 3555, 3615, 9957, 1975, 2407, 9154, 6225, 46309, 9957, 5296, 9778, 2304, 3794, 9957, 293, 934, 5009, 530, 420, 754, 934, 283, 2008, 530, 309, 486, 312, 264, 6182, 8717, 14851, 3224, 23275, 1975, 4117, 2655, 2288, 5296, 7649, 3224, 44945, 4117, 26890, 6156, 3555, 9381, 13546, 43242, 8315, 264, 12126], "avg_logprob": -0.15984512852356497, "compression_ratio": 1.7591836734693878, "no_speech_prob": 8.344650268554688e-07, 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و بالتالي نروح نعملها investment في أدوات تستطيع تحفظني القيمة للمستقبل stocks و bonds؟ do we have like this culture in our life؟ هل عندنا هذه ال culture في حياتنا ولا لأ؟", "tokens": [40228, 22653, 1975, 5016, 8315, 8032, 1863, 47283, 3215, 27188, 1211, 41779, 29538, 13672, 1829, 8032, 2655, 11622, 25708, 18871, 11331, 26108, 2655, 8315, 4032, 20666, 2655, 6027, 1829, 8717, 32887, 5016, 8717, 25957, 1211, 11296, 6078, 8978, 5551, 3215, 2407, 9307, 6055, 14851, 9566, 40228, 6055, 5016, 5172, 19913, 22653, 25062, 32640, 3660, 5296, 19528, 14851, 4587, 36150, 12966, 4032, 14713, 22807, 360, 321, 362, 411, 341, 3713, 294, 527, 993, 22807, 8032, 1211, 43242, 8315, 29538, 2423, 3713, 8978, 11331, 1829, 9307, 8315, 49429, 5296, 10721, 22807], "avg_logprob": -0.14600694278875986, "compression_ratio": 1.5089285714285714, "no_speech_prob": 1.0132789611816406e-06, "words": [{"start": 1863.67, "end": 1864.07, "word": "يعني", "probability": 0.931396484375}, {"start": 1864.07, "end": 1864.27, 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2682.91, "end": 2683.09, "word": " بين", "probability": 0.8857421875}, {"start": 2683.09, "end": 2683.47, "word": " الاقتصاد", "probability": 0.9642333984375}, {"start": 2683.47, "end": 2683.53, "word": " و", "probability": 0.5849609375}, {"start": 2683.53, "end": 2683.63, "word": " بين", "probability": 0.8330078125}, {"start": 2683.63, "end": 2683.95, "word": " الأسواق", "probability": 0.986083984375}, {"start": 2683.95, "end": 2684.29, "word": " المالية", "probability": 0.9954427083333334}, {"start": 2684.29, "end": 2684.41, "word": " و", "probability": 0.78759765625}, {"start": 2684.41, "end": 2684.55, "word": " كيف", "probability": 0.750244140625}, {"start": 2684.55, "end": 2686.25, "word": " الأسواق", "probability": 0.8270263671875}, {"start": 2686.25, "end": 2686.53, "word": " المالية", "probability": 0.9918619791666666}, {"start": 2686.53, "end": 2687.09, "word": " بتساعد", "probability": 0.979736328125}, {"start": 2687.09, "end": 2687.39, "word": " على", "probability": 0.9560546875}, {"start": 2687.39, "end": 2688.09, "word": " تنمية", "probability": 0.915283203125}, {"start": 2688.09, "end": 2688.83, "word": " الاقتصادية", "probability": 0.9685546875}, {"start": 2688.83, "end": 2689.25, "word": " و", "probability": 0.57177734375}, {"start": 2689.25, "end": 2689.77, "word": " تسريع", "probability": 0.9869384765625}, {"start": 2689.77, "end": 2690.21, "word": " العلاقة", "probability": 0.9534505208333334}, {"start": 2690.21, "end": 2690.43, "word": " بين", "probability": 0.970703125}, {"start": 2690.43, "end": 2690.53, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.93310546875}, {"start": 2690.53, "end": 2690.69, "word": " real", "probability": 0.712890625}, {"start": 2690.69, "end": 2691.11, "word": " asset", "probability": 0.71923828125}, {"start": 2691.11, "end": 2691.27, "word": " و", "probability": 0.9609375}, {"start": 2691.27, "end": 2691.47, "word": " بين", "probability": 0.93212890625}, {"start": 2691.47, "end": 2691.59, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.95361328125}, {"start": 2691.59, "end": 2691.95, "word": " financial", "probability": 0.9501953125}, {"start": 2691.95, "end": 2692.37, "word": " assets", "probability": 0.66552734375}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 103, "seek": 269524, "start": 2692.84, "end": 2695.24, "text": "Okay يعطيكم العافية و نشوف ال ..", "tokens": [8297, 37495, 9566, 1829, 24793, 18863, 31845, 10632, 4032, 8717, 8592, 38688, 2423, 4386], "avg_logprob": -0.214062503973643, "compression_ratio": 0.9122807017543859, "no_speech_prob": 1.1920928955078125e-07, "words": [{"start": 2692.84, "end": 2693.24, "word": "Okay", "probability": 0.884765625}, {"start": 2693.24, "end": 2693.96, "word": " يعطيكم", "probability": 0.744384765625}, {"start": 2693.96, "end": 2694.32, "word": " العافية", "probability": 0.82763671875}, {"start": 2694.32, "end": 2694.4, "word": " و", "probability": 0.9609375}, {"start": 2694.4, "end": 2694.64, "word": " نشوف", "probability": 0.8531901041666666}, {"start": 2694.64, "end": 2694.84, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.890625}, {"start": 2694.84, "end": 2695.24, "word": " ..", "probability": 0.94482421875}], "temperature": 1.0}], "language": "ar", "language_probability": 1.0, "duration": 2696.67275, "duration_after_vad": 2555.7593749999896}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/Vxx95XDXi4E_postprocess.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/Vxx95XDXi4E_postprocess.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..415de468396b5d75f6ef245def85781aa987c18d
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/Vxx95XDXi4E_postprocess.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,2364 @@
+1
+00:00:20,820 --> 00:00:25,600
+لأ احنا اللقاء الفات حكينا في ال risk and return
+
+2
+00:00:25,600 --> 00:00:31,380
+okay risk and return هو في علاقة opposite أو
+
+3
+00:00:31,380 --> 00:00:35,200
+positive positive relationship between risk and
+
+4
+00:00:35,200 --> 00:00:40,660
+return يعني بتكون بهذا الشكل لو احنا حطينا هذا
+
+5
+00:00:40,660 --> 00:00:48,480
+risk و حطينا هذا return فالعلاقة
+
+6
+00:00:48,480 --> 00:00:53,890
+بتكون هيكل ما بيزيد ال risk بيزيد ال return هذا
+
+7
+00:00:53,890 --> 00:00:59,050
+مبدأ بيسموه بال .. بال economics there is no free
+
+8
+00:00:59,050 --> 00:01:03,770
+lunch there is no free lunch there is no free
+
+9
+00:01:03,770 --> 00:01:07,890
+lunch يعني مافيش إيش ببلاش يعني لما نروح على مطعم
+
+10
+00:01:07,890 --> 00:01:15,730
+مثلا لازم ندفع لما نخلص الأكل صح ولا لأ نفس الشغل
+
+11
+00:01:15,730 --> 00:01:19,150
+بالنسبة للمستثمرينلما بيعملوا علاقة بال risk and
+
+12
+00:01:19,150 --> 00:01:23,030
+return المستثمرين اللي بدهم عائد عالي بدهم يتحملوا
+
+13
+00:01:23,030 --> 00:01:29,370
+مخاطر عالية and vice versa و العكس صحيح okay يعني
+
+14
+00:01:29,370 --> 00:01:34,450
+مثلا انا لما بقى تاجر في ال .. بيسير استثمار في
+
+15
+00:01:34,450 --> 00:01:41,310
+استثمارات مخاطرها منخفضة هان فبتكون العائد منخفض
+
+16
+00:01:41,310 --> 00:01:43,510
+تمام؟
+
+17
+00:01:44,440 --> 00:01:49,820
+وإذا أنا استثمرت في مخاطر عالية فهيكون العائد عالي
+
+18
+00:01:49,820 --> 00:01:56,000
+okay طبعا
+
+19
+00:01:56,000 --> 00:02:00,860
+لو أنا استثمرت في هذا في الاستثمارات هنا هيكون ال
+
+20
+00:02:00,860 --> 00:02:07,060
+risk هذا أعلى من ال risk وبالتالي ال return هيكون
+
+21
+00:02:07,060 --> 00:02:07,400
+أعلى
+
+22
+00:02:10,530 --> 00:02:13,970
+طبيعي حد بيستطيه يعطينا مثل بالواقع العملي الموجود
+
+23
+00:02:13,970 --> 00:02:17,850
+عندنا بحياتنا بغزا مثلا لأن السؤال الأول عندكم بال
+
+24
+00:02:17,850 --> 00:02:21,230
+.. بال assignment مطلوب منك أن نعمل two
+
+25
+00:02:21,230 --> 00:02:24,670
+reflections on the investment environment in Gaza
+
+26
+00:02:24,670 --> 00:02:27,550
+فبنعرف أيش ال investment environment في .. في
+
+27
+00:02:27,550 --> 00:02:31,310
+خطاعة غزا in the light of the definitions of the
+
+28
+00:02:31,310 --> 00:02:36,120
+investment environment طيبهد بيستطيع تاني مثال كيف
+
+29
+00:02:36,120 --> 00:02:39,700
+كل ما زادت العائد كل ما زادت مخاطر بيزيد العائد في
+
+30
+00:02:39,700 --> 00:02:44,580
+الاستثمارات اه تفضلي ال real estate ال real estate
+
+31
+00:02:44,580 --> 00:02:51,200
+اه طيب
+
+32
+00:02:51,200 --> 00:02:58,080
+لو اعطينا مثال كمان شو رأيكم مين اكثر مخاطر نحط
+
+33
+00:02:58,080 --> 00:03:05,130
+وديعة في بنك ولا نحط فلوسنا للاستثمار بالانفاقبدنا
+
+34
+00:03:05,130 --> 00:03:10,750
+.. بدنا جواب من البنات اللي ورا، إيش رأيك؟ وضيع في
+
+35
+00:03:10,750 --> 00:03:15,950
+bank و أقل مخاطر و أقل عاقد، تمام والاستثمار
+
+36
+00:03:15,950 --> 00:03:22,830
+بالأنفاق أظن وضحت الصورة، إذا كل ما أنا بدي أغامر
+
+37
+00:03:22,830 --> 00:03:27,410
+كل ما بتحمل المغامرة، كل ما زادت المخاطر كل ما
+
+38
+00:03:27,410 --> 00:03:30,210
+بزيد العاقد، تمام؟
+
+39
+00:03:33,550 --> 00:03:39,330
+ال .. كل الأسواق .. كل الأوراق المالية ممثلة على
+
+40
+00:03:39,330 --> 00:03:42,650
+خط السوق هذا بيسميه خط السوق اللي هو security
+
+41
+00:03:42,650 --> 00:03:48,390
+market line بيسميه خط السوق يعني كل الاستثمارات
+
+42
+00:03:48,390 --> 00:03:52,890
+لازم تكون تعكس المخاطر و تعكس العقد احنا مثلا لها
+
+43
+00:03:52,890 --> 00:03:58,510
+.. احنا حكينا مثلا الأنفاق بيسموهم tunnels الاشال
+
+44
+00:03:58,510 --> 00:04:01,830
+tunnels investment in tunnels يعني روحنا شوفنا
+
+45
+00:04:01,830 --> 00:04:04,770
+واحد و أعطينا له فلوسنا و قدّاله استثمرنا في ال
+
+46
+00:04:04,770 --> 00:04:08,690
+tunnels طبعا هذه مخاطر ماينفعش ييجي المستثمر
+
+47
+00:04:08,690 --> 00:04:13,290
+يحكيلي أنه أنا حطيت فلوسي و راحوا علي طبعا أكيد
+
+48
+00:04:13,290 --> 00:04:16,830
+راح يروح عليك لأن هذا is a high risk investment
+
+49
+00:04:16,830 --> 00:04:24,010
+المخاطر عالية فيه فالمخاطر هتكون عالية كتير
+
+50
+00:04:28,140 --> 00:04:31,680
+هلأ إذا كان السوق هو efficient إذا كان السوق إيش
+
+51
+00:04:31,680 --> 00:04:34,700
+ماله efficient efficient يعني إذا كان السوق كفق
+
+52
+00:04:34,700 --> 00:04:42,680
+إذا كان السوق إيش كفق إيش يعني السوق كفق السوق كفق
+
+53
+00:04:42,680 --> 00:04:46,420
+بيعني every security reflect security معناه ورقة
+
+54
+00:04:46,420 --> 00:04:51,340
+مالية every security reflect the risk and return
+
+55
+00:04:51,340 --> 00:04:53,160
+on the security market line
+
+56
+00:04:56,150 --> 00:04:59,990
+يعني بتعكس المخاطر تبعتها على خط السوق طب لو احنا
+
+57
+00:04:59,990 --> 00:05:06,570
+شوفنا ال .. ال .. الوضع كتالي لو كان عندي ..
+
+58
+00:05:06,570 --> 00:05:09,650
+انتبهوا معايا .. لو كان عندي استثمار بالأنفاخ هم
+
+59
+00:05:09,650 --> 00:05:17,010
+.. شوفوا وين؟ ايش معناه الكلام؟ احكي .. احكي ..
+
+60
+00:05:17,010 --> 00:05:20,970
+حسب الرسم .. بالعربي مش مشكلة، اتطلع فيها منيح
+
+61
+00:05:20,970 --> 00:05:29,410
+مخاطر قليلة وعاليهذا ايش بنسميه؟ هل هذا صحيح؟ هذا
+
+62
+00:05:29,410 --> 00:05:36,530
+اسمه miss pricing ايش اسمه؟ miss pricing سوق تسعير
+
+63
+00:05:36,530 --> 00:05:43,050
+اذا وجدنا حالة زي هيك اذا وجدنا حالة من هالنوع في
+
+64
+00:05:43,050 --> 00:05:48,870
+السوق معنى الكلام ان السوق المالي غير كفو طب احنا
+
+65
+00:05:48,870 --> 00:05:54,720
+أخدنا هذا بالنسبة لل tunnels شوفوا ال tunnelsطيب
+
+66
+00:05:54,720 --> 00:05:58,040
+لو أخدنا ال CDs ايش معنى ال CDs ال CDs اللي هو
+
+67
+00:05:58,040 --> 00:06:01,300
+certificate of deposits اللي هو الودائع لو احنا
+
+68
+00:06:01,300 --> 00:06:06,820
+أخدنا الودائع و حطناها بهذا الشكل شوفوا هان بدي
+
+69
+00:06:06,820 --> 00:06:10,040
+تحكيلي انت شو يعني وجود الودائع هان what it means
+
+70
+00:06:10,040 --> 00:06:16,000
+ال .. البنت الوراق اه فضلي مخاطرة
+
+71
+00:06:16,000 --> 00:06:21,800
+عالية صح؟ منخفض هذا صحيح؟ ممكن يصير في الودائع؟
+
+72
+00:06:22,500 --> 00:06:28,580
+المفروض المضايق وين تكون؟ تكون مخاطر منخفضة هذا
+
+73
+00:06:28,580 --> 00:06:35,360
+إيش بتسميه كمان مرة؟ mispricing سوق .. سوق تسعير
+
+74
+00:06:35,360 --> 00:06:41,200
+طبعا إذا إحنا شفنا فيه mispricing في السوق معناه
+
+75
+00:06:41,200 --> 00:06:47,120
+كلام السوق غير كفوء السوق المالي غير كفوء وهذا
+
+76
+00:06:47,120 --> 00:06:50,060
+اللي بيخلينا نحكي عن ال efficient markets ال
+
+77
+00:06:50,060 --> 00:06:53,810
+efficient marketsال efficient market اللي هو السوق
+
+78
+00:06:53,810 --> 00:06:59,210
+المالي الكفوء السوق المالي الكفوء بيعكس ال risk و
+
+79
+00:06:59,210 --> 00:07:04,870
+ال return and there is no mispricing وفيش ايش
+
+80
+00:07:04,870 --> 00:07:09,130
+mispricing فيش سوق تسعير طب الأسواق الأوروبية و
+
+81
+00:07:09,130 --> 00:07:12,850
+الأمريكية هى هل كفقة و لا غير كفقة كفقة بس بيصير
+
+82
+00:07:12,850 --> 00:07:17,410
+mispricing فى الحالة هى بيسمى الأسواق الأمريكية و
+
+83
+00:07:17,410 --> 00:07:23,860
+الأمريكية is nearly efficientis إيش nearly
+
+84
+00:07:23,860 --> 00:07:30,560
+efficient يعني هي تقريبا كفؤة طبعا يعني بيصير فيها
+
+85
+00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:34,700
+miss pricing لكن ال miss pricing هذا بيكون قليل
+
+86
+00:07:34,700 --> 00:07:41,440
+جدا and very limited و كتير محدود طيب خليني نرجع و
+
+87
+00:07:41,440 --> 00:07:45,280
+لل .. إذا كان عندنا الحالة الأولى كنا احنا في ال
+
+88
+00:07:45,280 --> 00:07:52,250
+tunnels و كان عندناعائد عالي و مخاطر منخفضة، إيش
+
+89
+00:07:52,250 --> 00:07:55,930
+المستثمرين المفروض يساويوا في الحالة هذه؟ انت لو
+
+90
+00:07:55,930 --> 00:08:00,770
+شفت هالحالة بتزيد استثمار، اذا buying، نشتري، صح؟
+
+91
+00:08:00,770 --> 00:08:05,010
+نشتري في ال .. نشتغل أو نشتري الاستثمارات، هنا
+
+92
+00:08:05,010 --> 00:08:08,770
+شراء طب كل ما احنا بنشتري، شو بيصير في الأسعار؟
+
+93
+00:08:08,770 --> 00:08:14,970
+ايوة، شوفوا اللي بيصير كل ما .. نحكي على ال price،
+
+94
+00:08:14,970 --> 00:08:19,420
+هلا ركزوا معايا، priceنفطر الأسعار بتاع الاسهان
+
+95
+00:08:19,420 --> 00:08:24,020
+كانت وشوفنا الحالة زي هذه إيش راح يصير؟ راح تصير
+
+96
+00:08:24,020 --> 00:08:29,660
+الأسعار ترتفع وكل ما بترتفع الأسعار العائد شو
+
+97
+00:08:29,660 --> 00:08:36,340
+بيصير فيه بنخفض العائد بنخفض كل ما ترتفع الأسعار
+
+98
+00:08:36,340 --> 00:08:41,400
+.. تذكر دايما كيسة طحين و الكيبريتا كل ما ارتفع
+
+99
+00:08:41,400 --> 00:08:45,360
+سعر كيسة طحين كل ما العائد تبعه شو بيصير فيه بنخفض
+
+100
+00:08:45,360 --> 00:08:48,530
+و الكيبريتا العائد تبعها أعلى من ..أو chips
+
+101
+00:08:48,530 --> 00:08:54,490
+الأطفال، تذكرين؟ يعني شوفوا يعني ال .. ال .. كيس
+
+102
+00:08:54,490 --> 00:08:57,910
+الحين الكبير و ال chips الصغير بس عائلة ال chips
+
+103
+00:08:57,910 --> 00:09:02,290
+الصغير أعلى من .. لأنه ال price فاللي بيصير أن
+
+104
+00:09:02,290 --> 00:09:07,170
+احنا هون بال .. ال tunnels بيصيروا مستفرين فيها
+
+105
+00:09:07,170 --> 00:09:13,090
+miss pricingال best pricing انه return عالي كتير و
+
+106
+00:09:13,090 --> 00:09:16,170
+مخاطر مخفضة فالمستثمرين بيصيروا focus on this
+
+107
+00:09:16,170 --> 00:09:20,790
+بيصيروا ركزوا عليه فال price بتبدأ تطلع تطلع و
+
+108
+00:09:20,790 --> 00:09:23,950
+العكس بيصير ال return كل ما ال price تطلع ال
+
+109
+00:09:23,950 --> 00:09:28,670
+return شو بيصير لما احنا طبعا هي موجودة لما بينزل
+
+110
+00:09:28,670 --> 00:09:33,040
+هيكيكيك و بيصير على ال security market lineلما
+
+111
+00:09:33,040 --> 00:09:38,200
+يصير عند نقطة التوازن يعني هو بيكون هك صار لما رجع
+
+112
+00:09:38,200 --> 00:09:41,740
+وصار على نقطة التوازن عندما يصل لمرحلة انه is fair
+
+113
+00:09:41,740 --> 00:09:49,820
+هو ال risk is equal to return طب لو
+
+114
+00:09:49,820 --> 00:09:56,060
+أجينا احنا لهنا شو بيصير؟ under priced البنات اللي
+
+115
+00:09:56,060 --> 00:10:01,810
+ه .. لو ال CDs احنا شوفوا ال CDsشهادات الإيداع
+
+116
+00:10:01,810 --> 00:10:07,130
+وودائع إيش شهادات الودائع؟ هي مخاطرها زي ما تشوف
+
+117
+00:10:07,130 --> 00:10:11,330
+عالية كتير شوفوا ال risk عالي والعائد مخفض طب شو
+
+118
+00:10:11,330 --> 00:10:16,650
+المستثمرين شو روح يسويها؟ هيخفضوا استثمارهم
+
+119
+00:10:16,650 --> 00:10:21,570
+هيبيعوا طيب هنرجع لل price خليني أحوال لل price
+
+120
+00:10:21,570 --> 00:10:25,570
+هاي هان ال price ناخد بال .. بال .. بالأخضر ال CDs
+
+121
+00:10:25,570 --> 00:10:31,010
+كانت هان ال price إيش هيصير فيها؟ هتنخفضطب ال
+
+122
+00:10:31,010 --> 00:10:34,070
+return هو شو راح يصير فيه؟ كل ما حكينا ال price
+
+123
+00:10:34,070 --> 00:10:38,990
+بتنخفض العواقد هتطلع، تمام؟ وبالتالي هذا راح يصير
+
+124
+00:10:38,990 --> 00:10:42,550
+two to two لما يصل أو يطلع هيك لما يصل لمرحلة
+
+125
+00:10:42,550 --> 00:10:47,850
+عادية، بيصير عن نقطة التعدد، لما يصير لمرحلة there
+
+126
+00:10:47,850 --> 00:10:52,410
+is no mispricing لما يصير لمرحلة there is no
+
+127
+00:10:52,410 --> 00:10:56,930
+mispricing بيصير efficient market
+
+128
+00:10:59,930 --> 00:11:02,610
+لما يكون عندنا مرحلة انه مافيششي عندنا miss
+
+129
+00:11:02,610 --> 00:11:06,390
+pricing يكون there is no efficient markets there
+
+130
+00:11:06,390 --> 00:11:09,330
+is no arbitrage عارفة يعني arbitrage؟ ايش معنى
+
+131
+00:11:09,330 --> 00:11:18,330
+arbitrage؟ مافيش مراجحات بتصير arbitrage there is
+
+132
+00:11:18,330 --> 00:11:22,930
+no arbitrage اذا
+
+133
+00:11:22,930 --> 00:11:29,090
+ال efficient markets هو السوق اللي بيعكس ال risk
+
+134
+00:11:29,090 --> 00:11:29,670
+and return
+
+135
+00:11:33,320 --> 00:11:38,200
+في حد عندى سؤال؟ في حد عندى سؤال عن efficient
+
+136
+00:11:38,200 --> 00:11:50,380
+markets؟ طيب
+
+137
+00:11:50,380 --> 00:11:55,680
+أمام الحالة هذه اللى بنشوفها ان فى عندنا miss
+
+138
+00:11:55,680 --> 00:11:59,680
+pricing فى عندنا نوعين من المستثمرين فى عندنا
+
+139
+00:11:59,680 --> 00:12:04,330
+activemanagement وفيه عندنا passive طبعا أكيد
+
+140
+00:12:04,330 --> 00:12:11,490
+قرأته عن ال active و ال passive ال
+
+141
+00:12:11,490 --> 00:12:15,790
+passive او نبدأ بال passive ال passive management
+
+142
+00:12:15,790 --> 00:12:19,170
+they consider that the market is efficient
+
+143
+00:12:19,170 --> 00:12:25,890
+بيعتبروا ال market إيش ماله is efficient السوق كفه
+
+144
+00:12:27,460 --> 00:12:30,940
+وبالتالي إذا السوق كفه any security .. أي security
+
+145
+00:12:30,940 --> 00:12:35,700
+is located in this .. security market line is
+
+146
+00:12:35,700 --> 00:12:39,140
+reflected the risk and return، مظبوط ولا لأ؟ إذا
+
+147
+00:12:39,140 --> 00:12:42,260
+كان السوق efficient، مع كلام أي security على السوق
+
+148
+00:12:42,260 --> 00:12:44,540
+.. على خط السوق بتعكس ال risk and return
+
+149
+00:12:48,000 --> 00:12:51,920
+The managers or the fund managers they do
+
+150
+00:12:51,920 --> 00:12:55,860
+diversifications بيعملوا تنوية based on the
+
+151
+00:12:55,860 --> 00:12:59,200
+securities located in the security market line
+
+152
+00:12:59,200 --> 00:13:06,360
+okay يعني مثلا اطيها
+
+153
+00:13:06,360 --> 00:13:10,820
+البره تاني لو انا معايا مثلا الف دولار معايا الف
+
+154
+00:13:10,820 --> 00:13:16,160
+دولار و بدأ استثمرهم في السوق المالي
+
+155
+00:13:18,930 --> 00:13:24,830
+فانا بختار أي أوراة مالية موجودة على خط السوق
+
+156
+00:13:24,830 --> 00:13:30,170
+نختار A واختارنا B واختارنا C هذا إيش بنسميه لما
+
+157
+00:13:30,170 --> 00:13:34,650
+اختارنا A B C احنا عملنا تنويع عملنا I H تنويع بس
+
+158
+00:13:34,650 --> 00:13:39,310
+احنا فرضنا ان all of the securities located in the
+
+159
+00:13:39,310 --> 00:13:42,730
+security market line reflecting the risk and
+
+160
+00:13:42,730 --> 00:13:46,560
+return back to risk and returnهذا مسمى ايش passive
+
+161
+00:13:46,560 --> 00:13:50,920
+management طيب passive management they don't
+
+162
+00:13:50,920 --> 00:13:55,760
+believe on mispricingما بيعملوش بال mispricing so
+
+163
+00:13:55,760 --> 00:14:00,420
+they allocate their resources they allocate their
+
+164
+00:14:00,420 --> 00:14:04,280
+investments on the security market line and they
+
+165
+00:14:04,280 --> 00:14:08,620
+will define their portfolios based on the security
+
+166
+00:14:08,620 --> 00:14:11,660
+market line portfolios يعني محافظهم الاستثمارية
+
+167
+00:14:11,660 --> 00:14:14,860
+فهم بروحوا بس بيستثمروا في خط السوق بيشوفوا الأسهم
+
+168
+00:14:14,860 --> 00:14:17,740
+المدرجة او المحلوة على خط السوق او ال securities و
+
+169
+00:14:17,740 --> 00:14:20,820
+بيعملوا استثمار عليها هذا بيسميهم شو؟ بيسميهم
+
+170
+00:14:20,820 --> 00:14:21,280
+passive
+
+171
+00:14:24,350 --> 00:14:27,530
+passive managements يعني في ال passive managements
+
+172
+00:14:27,530 --> 00:14:31,990
+في عندنا ورقة A و في عندنا B و في عندنا C هدول
+
+173
+00:14:31,990 --> 00:14:37,390
+passive passive managements هدول passive
+
+174
+00:14:37,390 --> 00:14:43,540
+managementsthey don't change in their investment
+
+175
+00:14:43,540 --> 00:14:47,340
+style ايش معناه investment style يعني بغيروش في
+
+176
+00:14:47,340 --> 00:14:50,580
+سلوكهم الاستثماري خلاص بيضلهم على ال a و b و ال c
+
+177
+00:14:50,580 --> 00:14:54,840
+لإنه بيعرفوا انه a و b و c هم موزعين على خط السوق
+
+178
+00:14:54,840 --> 00:14:57,700
+وبالتالي هم أخدوا مخاطر السوق يعني هم يبقوا مع ال
+
+179
+00:14:57,700 --> 00:15:04,220
+portfolio مابتتغير ماببذلوش جهد كبير عشان هم بس
+
+180
+00:15:04,220 --> 00:15:09,570
+بدهم a و b و c هم سبيين عيد عيد كلامك صحيعني هم
+
+181
+00:15:09,570 --> 00:15:12,590
+عشان يعني بياخدوش غير A وB وC ومثلا ال vegan عشان
+
+182
+00:15:12,590 --> 00:15:16,390
+.. لأنه موزع .. ال A و ال B و ال C زي ما أنتي
+
+183
+00:15:16,390 --> 00:15:20,030
+شايفاها وين ال A و ال B و ال C؟ موزع على خط السوق
+
+184
+00:15:20,030 --> 00:15:25,980
+وبالتالي تم توزيع مخاطر يعني مثلا A ..مخاطرها
+
+185
+00:15:25,980 --> 00:15:31,400
+منخفضة وعائدها منخفض B مخاطرها متوسطة وعائد متوسط
+
+186
+00:15:31,400 --> 00:15:37,280
+و C مخاطر عالية شويه وبالتالي هم بوزع ال portfolio
+
+187
+00:15:37,280 --> 00:15:41,320
+المحفظة بتاعتهم حسب .. حسب اللي هو المخاطر
+
+188
+00:15:41,320 --> 00:15:46,260
+المختلفة وبالتالي عندهم محفظة متوسطة المخاطر يعني
+
+189
+00:15:46,260 --> 00:15:50,060
+لو أخدنا A وB وC على عين الاعتبار شايفين وين اتقاه
+
+190
+00:15:50,060 --> 00:15:53,040
+وبالتالي متوسطة المخاطر وبيحطوا راسهم وبيناموا
+
+191
+00:15:53,040 --> 00:15:58,640
+وبيرتاحواهدوء بيسموهم passive managers طيب، ناخد
+
+192
+00:15:58,640 --> 00:16:03,800
+عكسهم، كنت بتحكي، اتفضلي كيف هم سلبين
+
+193
+00:16:03,800 --> 00:16:07,060
+اصلا؟ كيف؟ هم عاملين موازمة بين المخاطر و بين
+
+194
+00:16:07,060 --> 00:16:09,600
+العائد، يعني هم بيقولوا ان احنا في السوق كله، فهم
+
+195
+00:16:09,600 --> 00:16:14,850
+كيف سلبين؟ passive مش معناها سلبيلأ passive
+
+196
+00:16:14,850 --> 00:16:19,410
+management مش .. يعني هم ما بيغيروش .. بس إيش معنا
+
+197
+00:16:19,410 --> 00:16:24,230
+passive؟ سكون يعني هم ما بيغيروا حسب إيش بتغير
+
+198
+00:16:24,230 --> 00:16:28,150
+السوق خلاص بيغيروش يعني وبالتالي A و B و C بيضلهم
+
+199
+00:16:28,150 --> 00:16:31,970
+على A و B و C بيعملوا أول مرة حسبتهم بيشوفوا إيش
+
+200
+00:16:31,970 --> 00:16:36,250
+في عندنا A عائدها و مخاطرها و B عائدها و مخاطرها و
+
+201
+00:16:36,250 --> 00:16:41,040
+C و بالتالي بيسيلبتغيروش ليش؟ لإن في عندهم فرضية
+
+202
+00:16:41,040 --> 00:16:44,420
+في راسهم ان ال market financial is efficient there
+
+203
+00:16:44,420 --> 00:16:47,920
+is no mispricing انتوا لاحظوا احنا لما اعطيناكوا
+
+204
+00:16:47,920 --> 00:16:52,080
+المثال هنا احنا المثال كان عندنا mispricing فبصير
+
+205
+00:16:52,080 --> 00:16:57,520
+تغير في ال return و ال risk بناء على ال mispricing
+
+206
+00:16:57,520 --> 00:17:00,560
+ناخد ال active management اللي هي عكسهم تماما
+
+207
+00:17:00,560 --> 00:17:09,370
+active managers they only invest on mispricingand
+
+208
+00:17:09,370 --> 00:17:13,030
+they rebalance their portfolios based on the
+
+209
+00:17:13,030 --> 00:17:18,810
+changes in the efficient markets يعني هم اللي
+
+210
+00:17:18,810 --> 00:17:23,750
+نفترض بدوا في A و B و Cلنفترض أقبضوا ب A و B و C
+
+211
+00:17:23,750 --> 00:17:27,610
+عندهم قناعة أن A لن تبقى عقدها و مخاطرها زي ما هي
+
+212
+00:17:27,610 --> 00:17:31,290
+و B نفس الشغله و C نفس الشغله لن يبدأ في
+
+213
+00:17:31,290 --> 00:17:35,770
+mispricing سنكتشف لكم اكتبوا لماذا يحدث الكلام هذا
+
+214
+00:17:35,770 --> 00:17:40,050
+يعني عندكوا اسألوني لماذا يحدث أن A لا تبقى ال
+
+215
+00:17:40,050 --> 00:17:47,150
+risk والrecent لها و نفسه ناخد مثال A A يحدث فيها
+
+216
+00:17:47,150 --> 00:17:53,150
+mispricing what it means mispricingسوق تسعير okay
+
+217
+00:17:53,150 --> 00:17:56,310
+أكثر
+
+218
+00:17:56,310 --> 00:17:59,490
+علمية يعني سوق تسعير what it means سوق تسعير what
+
+219
+00:17:59,490 --> 00:18:04,810
+it means mispricing قرأته
+
+220
+00:18:04,810 --> 00:18:14,070
+أكيد بال .. كيف أنا بتعرف أن هذا السهم أو هذا ال
+
+221
+00:18:14,070 --> 00:18:18,840
+.. هو سعر غير حقيقي أعطيكم مثاللو أجينا احنا هان
+
+222
+00:18:18,840 --> 00:18:22,100
+في غزة روحنا ساعدنا سعر البندورة بكم؟ هكون ال 5
+
+223
+00:18:22,100 --> 00:18:25,500
+كيلو بمية روحنا على خان يونس كم سعر البندورة؟ هكون
+
+224
+00:18:25,500 --> 00:18:29,380
+7 كيلو بمية في miss pricing ولا لأ؟ في miss
+
+225
+00:18:29,380 --> 00:18:33,380
+pricing فإيش راح يسويوا تجار غزة؟ هياخدوا التجار
+
+226
+00:18:33,380 --> 00:18:36,620
+خان يونس هيجيبوا البندورة من خان يونس ويبقوا بها
+
+227
+00:18:36,620 --> 00:18:41,280
+في غزة قبل ما يصير توازن بالسعر طب إذا احنا عرفنا
+
+228
+00:18:41,280 --> 00:18:45,320
+miss pricing السعر الحقيقي هو السعر الموجود في خان
+
+229
+00:18:45,320 --> 00:18:47,580
+يونس مثلا، تمام؟
+
+230
+00:18:55,020 --> 00:19:01,100
+السعر الحقيقي هو بيكون ممثل على خط السوق لكن مرات
+
+231
+00:19:01,100 --> 00:19:05,440
+انه ممكن السعر الحقيقي ينزل زي ما انتوا شايفين و
+
+232
+00:19:05,440 --> 00:19:14,230
+ممكن يطلع لفوق حسبيعني السعر الحقيقي للسهم ممكن is
+
+233
+00:19:14,230 --> 00:19:23,570
+moving around the actual price ناخد مثلًا لسهم
+
+234
+00:19:23,570 --> 00:19:33,990
+من الأسهم مثلًا ياهو أو IBM طلع لو جينا احنا هذا
+
+235
+00:19:33,990 --> 00:19:42,700
+ال time T و هذا ال priceOkay طبعا نمشي هيك ال time
+
+236
+00:19:42,700 --> 00:19:47,060
+بزيد و نطلع هيك ال price بزيد لو جينا احنا أخدنا
+
+237
+00:19:47,060 --> 00:19:54,120
+هيك تشوفوهم هذه المنحنيات بالأسواق المالية صح؟ طيب
+
+238
+00:19:54,120 --> 00:20:01,380
+هذا ال price ال price fluctuated طب where is the
+
+239
+00:20:01,380 --> 00:20:06,580
+actual price؟ وين هو ال actual price؟وين السعر
+
+240
+00:20:06,580 --> 00:20:10,140
+الحقيقي لو اجينا احنا حكينا النقطة هذه وين ال
+
+241
+00:20:10,140 --> 00:20:14,300
+actually price اه
+
+242
+00:20:14,300 --> 00:20:17,840
+انساعدكم هو صعب شوية عليكم انساعدكم ال actually
+
+243
+00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:25,820
+price هو السعر هذا هو ال actually price دائما
+
+244
+00:20:25,820 --> 00:20:28,920
+السعر ال .. السعر الموجود في السوق هو سعر
+
+245
+00:20:28,920 --> 00:20:33,820
+fluctuated around the actual priceهو سعر بالذبذب
+
+246
+00:20:33,820 --> 00:20:37,360
+حوالين السعر الحقيقي ناخد النقطة هذه، طلع النقطة
+
+247
+00:20:37,360 --> 00:20:41,080
+هذه النقطة هذه إيش صار فيها؟ هذه السعر الحقيقي،
+
+248
+00:20:41,080 --> 00:20:44,440
+هذه overpriced فالناس بيبقوا يبيعوا يبيعوا لما
+
+249
+00:20:44,440 --> 00:20:49,180
+ينزل هنابعدين بيصير شغلات أخرى بنزل السعر الناس
+
+250
+00:20:49,180 --> 00:20:51,740
+بيبدوا يشتريه و بيبدأ يطلع يطلع و بعدين و هكذا
+
+251
+00:20:51,740 --> 00:20:55,960
+شوفتوا كيف is fluctuated around the actual price
+
+252
+00:20:55,960 --> 00:21:00,600
+يعني هذا هو السعر الحقيقي و هذا السعر الموجود في
+
+253
+00:21:00,600 --> 00:21:06,920
+السوق عشان هيك من المستحيل أنه نجد السعر الحقيقي
+
+254
+00:21:06,920 --> 00:21:13,120
+يساوي السعر السوقيإذا ال actual price ما بيسويش ال
+
+255
+00:21:13,120 --> 00:21:15,420
+market price اللي بتشوفوه السعر اللي موجود في
+
+256
+00:21:15,420 --> 00:21:23,280
+السوق الآن is not equal the actual price طبعا من
+
+257
+00:21:23,280 --> 00:21:25,580
+ناحية from financial perspective من وجهة نظر
+
+258
+00:21:25,580 --> 00:21:30,540
+الماليين هم الماليين ضرر عندهم معادلات تحسب ال
+
+259
+00:21:30,540 --> 00:21:34,760
+actual price بيقدروا يحسبوا ال actual price و ال
+
+260
+00:21:34,760 --> 00:21:38,940
+market price معروف فالفرق بين هذا و بين هذا إيش
+
+261
+00:21:38,940 --> 00:21:46,210
+بتسميهيلا اشوف الفرق بين هذا ال market price و هذا
+
+262
+00:21:46,210 --> 00:21:53,930
+ايش بنسميه الفرق هذا هو ال mispricing هو هذا ال
+
+263
+00:21:53,930 --> 00:21:59,110
+mispricing شوفتوا
+
+264
+00:21:59,110 --> 00:22:03,970
+كيف؟ يوم مرة نكبر الصورة اكتر
+
+265
+00:22:10,900 --> 00:22:18,140
+طيب نيجي ناخد ال T ال T time نفترض ناخد مثلا
+
+266
+00:22:18,140 --> 00:22:22,540
+الأيام .. الأيام الأسبوع و هذا ال price .. الأسعار
+
+267
+00:22:22,540 --> 00:22:28,260
+.. روحنا أخدنا ال chart .. أخدنا ال chartيعني رسم
+
+268
+00:22:28,260 --> 00:22:35,180
+بياني لسلوك سعر السوق بيجي هاي سعر مش هيك بتشوفوا
+
+269
+00:22:35,180 --> 00:22:39,080
+الأسعار بتكون طيب هلأ بدأنا في ال actual price
+
+270
+00:22:39,080 --> 00:22:42,680
+حكينا اللي بتاعون ال finance بيستطيعوا يحددوا وين
+
+271
+00:22:42,680 --> 00:22:45,940
+هو ال actual price لنفترض أنه احنا حددنا ال actual
+
+272
+00:22:45,940 --> 00:22:50,000
+price this is the actual price هذا الخط إيش بنسميه
+
+273
+00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:56,230
+actual priceطب و هذا الخط إيش اسمه؟ لزرق market
+
+274
+00:22:56,230 --> 00:23:00,870
+price طيب إذا هذا ال actually price and this is
+
+275
+00:23:00,870 --> 00:23:07,410
+the market price فاهمين لللحظة هذه؟ ناخد احنا ..
+
+276
+00:23:07,410 --> 00:23:10,670
+ناخد أي نقطة .. أي نقطة على السوق، النقطة هذه و لا
+
+277
+00:23:10,670 --> 00:23:16,170
+تكن أي نقطةهذه ايش مالها النقطة؟ under priced ولا
+
+278
+00:23:16,170 --> 00:23:20,010
+over priced؟ under priced ليش؟ لإن أقل من ال
+
+279
+00:23:20,010 --> 00:23:23,530
+actual price طب إيش رح يصير؟ الناس هتروح تشتري،
+
+280
+00:23:23,530 --> 00:23:29,590
+صح؟ طيب في حد مع كرة؟ كرة؟ أي كرة؟ لما احنا نمسك
+
+281
+00:23:29,590 --> 00:23:33,470
+الكرة و نضربها على ال .. على الأرض، إيش بيصير في
+
+282
+00:23:33,470 --> 00:23:38,060
+الكرة؟لأن المستثمرين نفسهم مابيعرفوش بالظبط where
+
+283
+00:23:38,060 --> 00:23:41,620
+is the actual price إذا هم عارفين بالظبط where is
+
+284
+00:23:41,620 --> 00:23:45,160
+the actual price كان الكرة اللي بنضربها بتظلها
+
+285
+00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:48,910
+واقفة عند نقطة محددة وهذا أشي مستحيلbecause there
+
+286
+00:23:48,910 --> 00:23:52,350
+is different in their expectations لأن ممكن أنت
+
+287
+00:23:52,350 --> 00:23:57,010
+تقول انا ال actual price هان واحد تاني يقول لأ هان
+
+288
+00:23:57,010 --> 00:24:00,670
+واحد تاري تقول لأ وبالتالي في اختلاف على ال actual
+
+289
+00:24:00,670 --> 00:24:04,510
+price زي الفكرة لما احنا نضرب الكورة على الأرض
+
+290
+00:24:04,510 --> 00:24:08,090
+وبالتالي الكورة بتبدأ تطلع وتنزل بطريقة معينة لما
+
+291
+00:24:08,090 --> 00:24:12,410
+يصير فيها سكون وعكس لما تضرب كهنا مرة وبالتالي
+
+292
+00:24:12,410 --> 00:24:18,530
+بتاخد ملحانة أخر okay فاللي بيصير عندناكانت هان
+
+293
+00:24:18,530 --> 00:24:23,250
+راحوا الناس بيشتريوا و يشتريوا و يشتريوا عند لحظة
+
+294
+00:24:23,250 --> 00:24:27,690
+معينة took the actual price صار في equal premium
+
+295
+00:24:27,690 --> 00:24:31,310
+بس ناس بيحكوا لأ يمكن أعلى من هيك و بضلهم يشتريوا
+
+296
+00:24:31,310 --> 00:24:36,610
+و وصلوا لهذا الحد عند هذا الحد إيش راح يصير؟ صار
+
+297
+00:24:36,610 --> 00:24:40,840
+over price فالناس بروحوا بيهاش؟بروحوا ببيعوا و
+
+298
+00:24:40,840 --> 00:24:42,920
+هكذا this is the story of the financial market و
+
+299
+00:24:42,920 --> 00:24:46,260
+هذه قصة السوق المالي طب شو اللي بيخلي الاشي يطلع و
+
+300
+00:24:46,260 --> 00:24:49,240
+ينزل بها الطريقة هذه the difference in investor
+
+301
+00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:56,000
+expectations difference in investors expectations
+
+302
+00:24:56,000 --> 00:24:58,260
+اختلافات توقعات المستثمرين بالظبط اختلافات
+
+303
+00:24:58,260 --> 00:25:02,620
+التوقعات المستثمرين لو كنا مع بعض احنا هنا ناخد
+
+304
+00:25:02,620 --> 00:25:06,200
+مثال بسيط على ال efficient markets لو احنا حكينا
+
+305
+00:25:06,200 --> 00:25:06,840
+بالتل
+
+306
+00:25:09,720 --> 00:25:18,440
+7.6 ثمنه الآن بالتل مثلا 4.5 okay ناخد
+
+307
+00:25:18,440 --> 00:25:23,720
+شوفوا احنا هاي أخدنا chart روح انتوا اليوم في
+
+308
+00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:27,720
+البيت روح على bse.com و نزلوا ال chart تبع بالتل
+
+309
+00:25:27,720 --> 00:25:33,680
+أخدنا ال chart بهالطريقة هذه و احنا هذا سعر 4.70
+
+310
+00:25:33,680 --> 00:25:38,980
+سعر بالتل انا بسألكوا سؤال okay سؤال بسيط
+
+311
+00:25:42,260 --> 00:25:46,160
+أيش رأيكم؟ انتوا شايفين ال trend هذا اسمه trend
+
+312
+00:25:46,160 --> 00:25:53,320
+التوجه هل السعر هيرتفع ولا سينخفض طيب ممكن تكتبوا
+
+313
+00:25:53,320 --> 00:25:57,160
+برقة هيك لحالكم اكتبوا توقعاتكم كل واحدة بدون ما
+
+314
+00:25:57,160 --> 00:25:59,480
+تتطلع على جنبها انتوا اعتبروا حالكم مستثمرين
+
+315
+00:25:59,480 --> 00:26:04,860
+اعتبروا حالكم ايهاش؟ مستثمرين وهي عندكم ال paletel
+
+316
+00:26:04,860 --> 00:26:08,120
+هي الآن سعرها 4.7 طيب
+
+317
+00:26:10,020 --> 00:26:13,320
+بعد الساعة عشرة هبفتح سوق .. يعني دلوقتي هو فاتح
+
+318
+00:26:13,320 --> 00:26:18,400
+سوق فلسطين طبعا طلعتوا على السوق شوفتوا السوق شو
+
+319
+00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:22,180
+.. شو بيصير فيه و بتسألي بدكوا أنتوا يا تشتريوا يا
+
+320
+00:26:22,180 --> 00:26:27,160
+تبيعوا اكتبوا .. اكتبوا بورقة هيك السعر اللي أنتوا
+
+321
+00:26:27,160 --> 00:26:34,160
+تتوقعوا لبالته ما .. ما تحكيش اكتبوا السعر بس بس
+
+322
+00:26:34,160 --> 00:26:38,490
+اكتبوا السعر بورقة صغيرة هيك و أعطينيهابدو ورقة
+
+323
+00:26:38,490 --> 00:26:45,750
+صغيرة بس هيك ورقة صغيرة يعني بس ورقة صغيرة بس بس
+
+324
+00:26:45,750 --> 00:26:50,350
+بس
+
+325
+00:26:50,350 --> 00:26:53,850
+بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس
+
+326
+00:26:53,850 --> 00:26:54,490
+بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس
+
+327
+00:26:54,490 --> 00:26:55,730
+بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس
+
+328
+00:26:55,730 --> 00:26:55,770
+بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس
+
+329
+00:26:55,770 --> 00:27:02,540
+بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بسلأ كمان ساعة او يعني
+
+330
+00:27:02,540 --> 00:27:06,180
+نحكي .. توقع .. اذا بدأت تشري ع كام بتشري بقى تلعب
+
+331
+00:27:06,180 --> 00:27:10,780
+.. اربعة .. اربعة فاصلة سبعة لأ ساعة .. لأ ساعة
+
+332
+00:27:10,780 --> 00:27:17,600
+عشرة و نص يعني ايه للسوق فاتح نص ساعة okay انت حسب
+
+333
+00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:20,040
+انت رؤيتك مالكيش دخل في اللي جانبك انت لما تروح
+
+334
+00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:25,020
+تشتري بالسوق اه your expectations determine the
+
+335
+00:27:25,020 --> 00:27:33,530
+price اه مجموعة توقعاتكم هو بحدد السعريلا بسرعة يا
+
+336
+00:27:33,530 --> 00:27:40,930
+عم كلها ورقة صغيرة ماشي الحال يلا بسرعة اه اعطيني
+
+337
+00:27:40,930 --> 00:27:44,690
+اعطيني واحدة من البنات بتجمع من هذا المجموعة يعني
+
+338
+00:27:44,690 --> 00:27:47,530
+انا كمان دقيقة واحدة من البنات بتجمع واحدة من
+
+339
+00:27:47,530 --> 00:27:50,630
+البنات بتجمع من هذا المجموعة واحدة من البنات بتجمع
+
+340
+00:27:50,630 --> 00:27:56,730
+من هذا .. تجمع من البنات يعني معاكم دقيقتين عشان
+
+341
+00:27:56,730 --> 00:28:02,350
+اورجيكم كيف في السوق المالييتم تحديد الأسعار؟ جمع
+
+342
+00:28:02,350 --> 00:28:06,650
+المدبنة طبعا؟ غالبك؟
+
+343
+00:28:06,650 --> 00:28:18,950
+تحولوش
+
+344
+00:28:18,950 --> 00:28:23,930
+تطلع .. ممكن المجموعات تشتغل مع بعض و تقرر بس كويس
+
+345
+00:28:23,930 --> 00:28:28,670
+أنه تشتغلوا individuallyإذا اشتغلتوا مجموعات هى
+
+346
+00:28:28,670 --> 00:28:32,650
+بيسموها بال .. بال investment herding theory نظرية
+
+347
+00:28:32,650 --> 00:28:36,210
+ال .. ال herding عارفينش معنى ال herding نظرية
+
+348
+00:28:36,210 --> 00:28:40,210
+القطيع يعني الطيور لما بتطير بتطير مع بعض وبالتالي
+
+349
+00:28:40,210 --> 00:28:44,810
+مجموعات بتحدد الأسعار تمام هك؟ طيب واحدة من البنات
+
+350
+00:28:44,810 --> 00:28:50,550
+بس تيجي هان واحدة تعالى يا إيمان نسمع بس افتح ال
+
+351
+00:28:50,550 --> 00:28:55,550
+.. الأوراق واعطيني بس هيك الأسعار
+
+352
+00:29:00,490 --> 00:29:13,470
+لو جاء 4 يعني حكينا هان 4.7 4.8 4.9 5 4.6 4.5 okay
+
+353
+00:29:13,470 --> 00:29:24,330
+4.4 نشوف كيف الأسعار هتصير اعطيني ناخد أول واحدة 4
+
+354
+00:29:24,330 --> 00:29:28,610
+.7 4.9 5
+
+355
+00:29:32,090 --> 00:29:37,370
+خمسة فاصلة تسعة خمسة فاصلة سبعة خمسة فاصلة خمسة
+
+356
+00:29:37,370 --> 00:29:46,090
+ستة فاصلة خمسة ستة فاصلة سبعة ستة فاصلة سبعة لأ
+
+357
+00:29:46,090 --> 00:29:50,610
+هان هان نفس الشيء okay okay اربعة فاصلة تلاتة
+
+358
+00:29:50,610 --> 00:29:54,770
+اربعة فاصلة تلاتة انتبه هان هاي ايش صار اربعة
+
+359
+00:29:54,770 --> 00:30:00,450
+فاصلة تلاتة ستة فاصلة اربعة ستة فاصلة اربعةاربعة
+
+360
+00:30:00,450 --> 00:30:04,330
+فاصلة خمسة اربعة
+
+361
+00:30:04,330 --> 00:30:08,770
+فاصلة تسعة اربعة فاصلة تسعة اربعة فاصلة سبعة اربعة
+
+362
+00:30:08,770 --> 00:30:16,190
+فاصلة سبعة خمسة فاصلة سبعة خمسة فاصلة سبعة خمسة
+
+363
+00:30:16,190 --> 00:30:21,490
+خمسة طيب لو كف .. لو اكتفنا بهذا العدد ايش رأيكم؟
+
+364
+00:30:21,490 --> 00:30:25,410
+شو راح .. راح يصير في السعر؟ هيرتفع هيرتفع ليش؟
+
+365
+00:30:25,410 --> 00:30:29,970
+لأن ال expectations تبع الماس الموجودةأعلى بكتير،
+
+366
+00:30:29,970 --> 00:30:33,230
+بس هذا شو .. شو .. شو اللي صار؟ صار إنه في ناس
+
+367
+00:30:33,230 --> 00:30:36,610
+عندهم ال .. في over expectations over .. over
+
+368
+00:30:36,610 --> 00:30:40,050
+optimistic صار عندهم، فإيش راح يصير في السوق؟
+
+369
+00:30:40,050 --> 00:30:43,730
+السوق بالظبط أشهد زي ما إحنا ضربنا الكرة، إحنا
+
+370
+00:30:43,730 --> 00:30:49,550
+عندنا .. تبعوا علي، عندنا السئر لو إحنا حسبنا
+
+371
+00:30:49,550 --> 00:30:54,990
+المنطقة هذه، كدهش المتوسط تبعها، مثل المتوسط ممكن
+
+372
+00:30:54,990 --> 00:31:02,450
+يكون 4.9يعني هذه 4.9 هذا ال ceiling اللي بيسموه ال
+
+373
+00:31:02,450 --> 00:31:07,110
+threshold مرة معاكي كلمة threshold ال threshold هي
+
+374
+00:31:07,110 --> 00:31:12,210
+السقف لما نضرب الكورة لازم يخبط فيه في السقف هذا
+
+375
+00:31:12,210 --> 00:31:15,790
+هو أعلى سقف ممكن نصل إليه طيب اللي بيصير احنا
+
+376
+00:31:15,790 --> 00:31:20,370
+threshold هو 4.9 سعر الحقيقي المفروض لكن إيهش اللي
+
+377
+00:31:20,370 --> 00:31:25,170
+بيصيرالسعر ضرب في السعر الحقيقي و بدأ يرتح شوي شوي
+
+378
+00:31:25,170 --> 00:31:28,970
+شوي و هيرجع في المرة التانية هيبدأ ينزل okay
+
+379
+00:31:28,970 --> 00:31:33,510
+فالسعر is rounding حوالين الأربعة فاصلة تسعة but
+
+380
+00:31:33,510 --> 00:31:37,630
+nobody knows ولا واحد مننا بيعرف يعني ولا واحد
+
+381
+00:31:37,630 --> 00:31:41,110
+يعني مافيش حد اتفق بالظبط مية فالمية أن السعر
+
+382
+00:31:41,110 --> 00:31:47,750
+أربعة فاصلة تسعة ماحدش طبعافمين اللي بحدد السعر في
+
+383
+00:31:47,750 --> 00:31:51,670
+السوق هم ال customers or investors expectations طب
+
+384
+00:31:51,670 --> 00:31:55,970
+السؤال اللي انا بدي نسألكوا ياه كمان مرة لو انا
+
+385
+00:31:55,970 --> 00:31:59,130
+اعطيتكوا معلومات شوفوا هل ال efficient markets لو
+
+386
+00:31:59,130 --> 00:32:03,450
+انا انتوا intentionally حاكيتلكم لان اعملوا كلام
+
+387
+00:32:03,450 --> 00:32:11,250
+هذا لان طب لو انا عملتلكوا شغلتلكم okay هاي سعر
+
+388
+00:32:11,250 --> 00:32:18,850
+السوق وهي بيانات الشركةاتوقعوا لي كمان مرة حسب
+
+389
+00:32:18,850 --> 00:32:23,910
+البيانات فالتوقع هيختلف التوقع هيصير أقرب لل
+
+390
+00:32:23,910 --> 00:32:30,670
+actual price طيب فهمنا كيف؟ طب إذا كنا أنا أعطيكم
+
+391
+00:32:30,670 --> 00:32:35,050
+public information يعني أنتوا في الحالة الأولى
+
+392
+00:32:35,050 --> 00:32:39,050
+استخدمتوا معلوماتكم العادية اللي بتقرؤوها بالأخبار
+
+393
+00:32:39,050 --> 00:32:43,050
+اللي في ال media و روحتوا قررتوا السعر طب لو أنا
+
+394
+00:32:43,050 --> 00:32:47,570
+أعطيتكم private informationإذا في عندنا نوعين في
+
+395
+00:32:47,570 --> 00:32:51,330
+عندنا public information و في عندنا private
+
+396
+00:32:51,330 --> 00:32:54,590
+information السؤال اللي أنا بدأ أسأله ال private
+
+397
+00:32:54,590 --> 00:32:57,050
+information is the private information available
+
+398
+00:32:57,050 --> 00:33:02,150
+for everyone؟ no ال
+
+399
+00:33:02,150 --> 00:33:04,910
+private information is limited to the insiders
+
+400
+00:33:04,910 --> 00:33:10,850
+limited لمن؟ لل insiders مين هم ال insiders؟مش
+
+401
+00:33:10,850 --> 00:33:15,250
+اللي بيشتغلوه مش اي واحد في الشركة هم الناس they
+
+402
+00:33:15,250 --> 00:33:19,450
+hold the private information اللي عندهم المعلومات
+
+403
+00:33:19,450 --> 00:33:23,410
+الداخلية وبالتالي كل ما يكون فيه ان ال private
+
+404
+00:33:23,410 --> 00:33:28,690
+information is available okay هنصل ل ال pricing ل
+
+405
+00:33:28,690 --> 00:33:36,470
+ال actual price لل actual price طيب خلينا نشوف
+
+406
+00:33:36,470 --> 00:33:42,090
+الفرق بينإذا كانت المعلومات متوفرة وإذا كانت
+
+407
+00:33:42,090 --> 00:33:46,710
+المعلومات غير متوفرة بينا ناخد two charts ال chart
+
+408
+00:33:46,710 --> 00:33:52,610
+في availability for information وال chart في no
+
+409
+00:33:52,610 --> 00:33:54,610
+availability for information زي ما احنا طوينا
+
+410
+00:33:54,610 --> 00:33:58,090
+ساولا معاكم قلنا لكوا اتفضلوا اعطوني سعر وماعندكم
+
+411
+00:33:58,090 --> 00:34:01,250
+مش معلومات طب لو احنا عكسنا اعطاناكم معلومات وقلنا
+
+412
+00:34:01,250 --> 00:34:04,450
+لكم اعملوا predictions للسعر هتشوف ال two cases
+
+413
+00:34:04,450 --> 00:34:05,490
+كيف بيختلفوا عن بعض
+
+414
+00:34:18,730 --> 00:34:27,470
+طبعا هاي ال T و هاي ال price ناخد هذا
+
+415
+00:34:27,470 --> 00:34:36,410
+سوق هذا يهو شركة يهو و ناخد شركة أخرى موجودة مثلا
+
+416
+00:34:36,410 --> 00:34:44,050
+بالسعودية مثلا شركة إعمار أو شركة في دبي
+
+417
+00:34:52,550 --> 00:34:57,510
+ايش اللي بيصير شوفوا
+
+418
+00:34:57,510 --> 00:35:01,970
+الفرق لو اجينا احنا بنعمل ال actual price هان و
+
+419
+00:35:01,970 --> 00:35:11,110
+بناخد ال actual price هان ال actual price زي
+
+420
+00:35:11,110 --> 00:35:16,110
+ما انتوا شايفين هذا هو ال actual price و لو اجينا
+
+421
+00:35:16,110 --> 00:35:20,170
+احدنا ال actual price هان هي شركة Yahoo و شركة
+
+422
+00:35:20,170 --> 00:35:33,380
+اعمارإيش الفرق بيناتهم؟ فضل بالظبط
+
+423
+00:35:33,380 --> 00:35:36,700
+there is no .. يعني there is a little mispricing
+
+424
+00:35:36,700 --> 00:35:40,980
+بيكون ال mispricing بسيط طلع على شركة اما عارفش
+
+425
+00:35:40,980 --> 00:35:44,620
+اللي بيصير ال
+
+426
+00:35:44,620 --> 00:35:50,500
+mispricing اللي هي الفرق بين هذه و هذهعالية ال
+
+427
+00:35:50,500 --> 00:35:53,660
+variance لو احنا نحسب بلغة الإحصال variance
+
+428
+00:35:53,660 --> 00:35:59,360
+التباين عالي لكن لو أجينا احنا هان التباين ال
+
+429
+00:35:59,360 --> 00:36:05,940
+variance أو sigma قليلة كتير و هذا الفرق بين أسواق
+
+430
+00:36:05,940 --> 00:36:10,080
+شركة فيها كفاءة في التسعير و شركة كفائتها أقل في
+
+431
+00:36:10,080 --> 00:36:14,380
+التسعيرال efficient markets okay so the efficient
+
+432
+00:36:14,380 --> 00:36:22,520
+markets في السوق المالي بيكون السعر ال market
+
+433
+00:36:22,520 --> 00:36:29,380
+price is closer to the actual price but in the
+
+434
+00:36:29,380 --> 00:36:35,000
+semi strong efficient markets orweak markets بيكون
+
+435
+00:36:35,000 --> 00:36:41,860
+the actual price is far away from the market price
+
+436
+00:36:41,860 --> 00:36:49,080
+تمام واضح الكلام هذا نعيد كلام مرة لو احنا عندنا
+
+437
+00:36:49,080 --> 00:36:52,800
+سوقين السوق فيه كفاءة مالية و السوق مافيش فيه
+
+438
+00:36:52,800 --> 00:36:57,380
+كفاءة مالية فالسوق اللي فيه كفاءة مالية بيكون سعر
+
+439
+00:36:57,380 --> 00:37:03,180
+السوق قريب من ال actual price السعر الحقيقيبيكون
+
+440
+00:37:03,180 --> 00:37:10,020
+فيه كفاءة وإذا السوق المالي الغير كفوء بيكون السعر
+
+441
+00:37:10,020 --> 00:37:13,980
+السوق بعيد كتير عن .. إذا احنا لما بنختبر كفاءة
+
+442
+00:37:13,980 --> 00:37:18,020
+سوق سهل ما تصير لما بنختبر أن هذا .. نحكي أن هذا
+
+443
+00:37:18,020 --> 00:37:26,260
+السوق مالي كفوء ولا غير كفوء هاي
+
+444
+00:37:26,260 --> 00:37:29,960
+بدأت جاوبك إذا كانش .. إذا كان ال variance قليل
+
+445
+00:37:30,630 --> 00:37:34,170
+عادي روح يجيب البيانات وحطيها في ال Excel و
+
+446
+00:37:34,170 --> 00:37:36,590
+calculate variance و calculate sigma هتطلع عندك
+
+447
+00:37:36,590 --> 00:37:43,590
+كفاءة السوق okay عندك خبرة في ال Excel؟ بتيجي
+
+448
+00:37:43,590 --> 00:37:48,770
+بتاخدي حسوب و تحليل مالي بتصير عندك خبرة okay
+
+449
+00:37:48,770 --> 00:37:58,230
+okay
+
+450
+00:37:58,230 --> 00:38:07,250
+في حد عندك سؤال؟أه اتفضلي الزمن
+
+451
+00:38:07,250 --> 00:38:14,050
+مو انت بتحدي observations حسب الزمن هذا .. هذا ال
+
+452
+00:38:14,050 --> 00:38:21,310
+charts زمني لفترات زمنية و بترقم فيها طيب خليني
+
+453
+00:38:21,310 --> 00:38:27,770
+اكمل واضحة للفكرة هذه اه؟ في حد عنده سؤال is
+
+454
+00:38:27,770 --> 00:38:29,030
+unclear اه؟
+
+455
+00:38:32,550 --> 00:38:40,790
+هلا ممتازين رضى الله ان شاء الله اذا احنا حكينا عن
+
+456
+00:38:40,790 --> 00:38:44,170
+ال active management حكينا عن ال mis pricing و
+
+457
+00:38:44,170 --> 00:38:47,630
+timing the markets اللي انت سألتي timing the
+
+458
+00:38:47,630 --> 00:38:51,310
+markets يعني احنا بندخل في السوق لما نشعر انه
+
+459
+00:38:51,310 --> 00:38:56,410
+there is mis pricing okay طيب و ال passive
+
+460
+00:38:56,410 --> 00:39:01,030
+management حكيناها okay دي players مين ال players
+
+461
+00:39:01,030 --> 00:39:04,950
+اللي في السوق المالي؟مين هم اللاعبين في الأسواق
+
+462
+00:39:04,950 --> 00:39:10,230
+المالية؟
+
+463
+00:39:10,230 --> 00:39:16,210
+اللاعبين في الأسواق المالية business firms شركات
+
+464
+00:39:16,210 --> 00:39:22,410
+بيكونوا net borrowers هم مقترضين بدهم يقترضوا وعنا
+
+465
+00:39:22,410 --> 00:39:26,890
+ال households net savers هم المداخرينوال
+
+466
+00:39:26,890 --> 00:39:30,570
+governments الحكومة الحكومة هي بتكون net borrowers
+
+467
+00:39:30,570 --> 00:39:33,570
+اما net savers يعني ممكن تكون على الجانب هذا وممكن
+
+468
+00:39:33,570 --> 00:39:42,730
+تكون جانب هذا باختصار انتبهوا
+
+469
+00:39:42,730 --> 00:39:49,810
+معايا ايه علاقة بالاقتصاد نربط
+
+470
+00:39:49,810 --> 00:39:53,250
+الموضوع كله في بعض في عندي انا ال real estate real
+
+471
+00:39:53,250 --> 00:39:55,890
+asset مظبوط
+
+472
+00:39:57,410 --> 00:40:01,850
+اش حكينا ال real asset؟ produce goods, services
+
+473
+00:40:01,850 --> 00:40:08,230
+and income ايه بتعطيني income؟ ال income بروح
+
+474
+00:40:08,230 --> 00:40:14,010
+بنعمل consumption استهلاك و اللي بزيد بنعمل ايه؟
+
+475
+00:40:14,010 --> 00:40:21,710
+saving بنعمل ايه؟ saving ف ال saving بروح عند اللي
+
+476
+00:40:21,710 --> 00:40:28,410
+هو ال savers الناس اللي معها الفلوسطيب ال savers
+
+477
+00:40:28,410 --> 00:40:32,690
+بيبحثوا على ناس يعطوهم الأموال اللي لديهم عشان
+
+478
+00:40:32,690 --> 00:40:39,130
+يروحوا يستثمروا فيها فبيعطوها لل firms الشركات أو
+
+479
+00:40:39,130 --> 00:40:44,550
+ال individuals أو
+
+480
+00:40:44,550 --> 00:40:50,190
+الأشخاص okay it
+
+481
+00:40:50,190 --> 00:40:56,170
+meansthe flow of fund ال fund معناها الأموال the
+
+482
+00:40:56,170 --> 00:41:01,770
+flow of fund is moving from surplus أنا بسميه
+
+483
+00:41:01,770 --> 00:41:10,030
+surplus to the deficit يعني
+
+484
+00:41:10,030 --> 00:41:14,440
+surplus للناس اللي معاهم فائض عن حاجتهمto the
+
+485
+00:41:14,440 --> 00:41:17,740
+deficit الناس اللي بيحتاجوا هذه الفلوس الشركات
+
+486
+00:41:17,740 --> 00:41:21,580
+بدها تروح تستثمر وماعندهاش أموال وبالتالي بدها
+
+487
+00:41:21,580 --> 00:41:25,880
+تاخد من الناس اللي عندهم أموال لذا ال funds is
+
+488
+00:41:25,880 --> 00:41:31,240
+moving from the savers to the individuals or firms
+
+489
+00:41:31,240 --> 00:41:35,740
+يعني الناس اللي مع فلوس بتروح تقرد أو بتعطي للناس
+
+490
+00:41:35,740 --> 00:41:40,020
+اللي معهم مش فلوس طيب هدول ايش راح يسووا هدول راح
+
+491
+00:41:40,020 --> 00:41:44,110
+يسووا هيستثمروا في ال real assetsو هتصير عندنا
+
+492
+00:41:44,110 --> 00:41:49,490
+الدورة بهذا الشكل حتيجي ال real asset هتعطي income
+
+493
+00:41:49,490 --> 00:41:53,650
+ال income جزء منه زي ما حكينا المرة السابقة ال
+
+494
+00:41:53,650 --> 00:41:58,150
+consumption و هنسد ال .. هنسد ال savers فلوسهم و
+
+495
+00:41:58,150 --> 00:42:02,810
+القروض تبعتهم okay و هنيجي برضه نروح نقرأ شركات
+
+496
+00:42:02,810 --> 00:42:07,450
+أخرى و هكذا هذه اسمها ال circle of economic اعني
+
+497
+00:42:07,450 --> 00:42:07,890
+كمان مرة
+
+498
+00:42:11,060 --> 00:42:14,120
+نبدأ خاصة من ال real assets ال machines و ال
+
+499
+00:42:14,120 --> 00:42:19,780
+equipments تشتغل okay generate goods and services
+
+500
+00:42:19,780 --> 00:42:23,400
+and
+
+501
+00:42:23,400 --> 00:42:27,840
+income مظبوط هذا شرحناه المرة الفاتة هلأ هذا ال
+
+502
+00:42:27,840 --> 00:42:32,760
+income بيصير معانا فلوس بنروح بنعمل consumption
+
+503
+00:42:32,760 --> 00:42:41,810
+فاكرين و اللي بزيد بنعمله saving صح ال savingاللي
+
+504
+00:42:41,810 --> 00:42:44,870
+هو الناس اللي بيعملوا .. اللي عندهم savers الناس
+
+505
+00:42:44,870 --> 00:42:48,090
+اللي عندهم أموال زائدة عن حاجزتهم هدول بيسميهم
+
+506
+00:42:48,090 --> 00:42:52,070
+surplus ناحية اقتصادية بيسميهم surplus يعني عندهم
+
+507
+00:42:52,070 --> 00:42:57,350
+فائد طيب هدول اللي عندهم فائد بدهم يستثمروا هذا
+
+508
+00:42:57,350 --> 00:43:02,230
+الفائد و يعطوه لناس بحتاجين للاستثمارات فبيعطيهم
+
+509
+00:43:02,230 --> 00:43:07,860
+لل firms للشركاتOkay الشركات بتروح بتعمل expansion
+
+510
+00:43:07,860 --> 00:43:11,820
+expansion يعني توسع بتشتري قلعات جديدة و بتعمل
+
+511
+00:43:11,820 --> 00:43:15,700
+مشاريع و كذا real assets increase in real assets
+
+512
+00:43:15,700 --> 00:43:19,960
+بعدين بيجيب بيعملوا income بعدين بي .. و بتتعليق
+
+513
+00:43:19,960 --> 00:43:24,040
+الدورة بالدور إذا واحدة من هالدورة إذا ال machines
+
+514
+00:43:24,040 --> 00:43:28,880
+weak فشو رح يصير؟ هتوقف الدورة فعشان هيك في الدول
+
+515
+00:43:28,880 --> 00:43:32,440
+الصناعيةفي الدول الصناعية الدول اللي بتعتمد على
+
+516
+00:43:32,440 --> 00:43:37,060
+الصناعة اللي بيصير عندهم انه في ال real estate ال
+
+517
+00:43:37,060 --> 00:43:39,620
+machines بتشتغل بتعطينا income و بدأ الدورة بتدور
+
+518
+00:43:39,620 --> 00:43:45,390
+الدول اللي بدأت تعتمد أقل على الصناعةزي مثلا
+
+519
+00:43:45,390 --> 00:43:48,890
+الأوروبا و ال .. و ال UK و بريطانيا و الدول
+
+520
+00:43:48,890 --> 00:43:52,950
+الأوروبية هذه صاروا يحاولوا جزء من الصناعة تبعتهم
+
+521
+00:43:52,950 --> 00:43:56,510
+للصين و ل .. و لدول آسيا ايش اللي راح يصير عندهم
+
+522
+00:43:56,510 --> 00:44:00,150
+دول الخدمات هتصبح و بالتالي there is no machines و
+
+523
+00:44:00,150 --> 00:44:02,710
+بالتالي ايش هيصير عندهم؟ هيصير عندهم مشكلة و أزمة
+
+524
+00:44:02,710 --> 00:44:07,150
+مالية لأن ال machines is not generating income مين
+
+525
+00:44:07,150 --> 00:44:10,850
+هيصير عندهم ال surplus؟ ال China و الدول الآسية
+
+526
+00:44:12,020 --> 00:44:16,240
+هيصير عندهم ال machines تشتغل و تجيب لهم income و
+
+527
+00:44:16,240 --> 00:44:19,420
+هتجيب لهم goods and services و ال income هيروح عند
+
+528
+00:44:19,420 --> 00:44:22,040
+الناس و يدخروا الفلوس هم يروحوا و يعطوها للشركات و
+
+529
+00:44:22,040 --> 00:44:25,060
+الشركات هتروح تستثمر و يعملوا expansion و and so
+
+530
+00:44:25,060 --> 00:44:30,860
+on هذا ال circle okay يعني شوفوا انتوا شو بيصير في
+
+531
+00:44:30,860 --> 00:44:34,580
+أسبانيا و في إيطاليا و في الدول هذه اللي .. اللي
+
+532
+00:44:34,580 --> 00:44:38,400
+صار في عندها أزمة ماليةلهاد السبب ان ال machines
+
+533
+00:44:38,400 --> 00:44:45,340
+is not working properly بنجح عند هذا الحد اجرى
+
+534
+00:44:45,340 --> 00:44:51,280
+ال mode gauges هتفهميها اللي صار في الأزمة المالية
+
+535
+00:44:51,280 --> 00:44:57,180
+شغل بسيط يعني بدقيقتين خلصت كده اللي هو موضوعنا
+
+536
+00:44:57,180 --> 00:45:00,520
+اللقاء اللي جاي طبعا مش هركز عليه كتير بس يعني
+
+537
+00:45:03,860 --> 00:45:09,360
+التركيز بسيط بس بناء .. بناء على سؤالك انه ليش صار
+
+538
+00:45:09,360 --> 00:45:20,180
+financial crisis financial crisis okay اه الأزمة
+
+539
+00:45:20,180 --> 00:45:24,140
+المالية financial crisis معناها الأزمة المالية طيب
+
+540
+00:45:24,140 --> 00:45:27,500
+الأزمة المالية بدت بسبب شغل اسمه ال housing
+
+541
+00:45:27,500 --> 00:45:35,110
+inflation in housing priceزيادة في أسعار البيوت
+
+542
+00:45:35,110 --> 00:45:39,210
+والمنازل زيادة عن أسعارها الحقيقية هذه موجودة في
+
+543
+00:45:39,210 --> 00:45:48,190
+الصفحة 14 أسعار
+
+544
+00:45:48,190 --> 00:45:51,670
+البيوت ني جي هان طلعوا كيف صارت الأزمة
+
+545
+00:45:57,050 --> 00:45:59,150
+سعر البيوت في الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية و في
+
+546
+00:45:59,150 --> 00:46:04,050
+بريطانيا و في الدول أوروبا سعر البيت هذا البيت
+
+547
+00:46:04,050 --> 00:46:12,510
+okay زي ما تشايفين مثلا سعره seventy thousand
+
+548
+00:46:12,510 --> 00:46:18,770
+dollar سعره الحقيقي بيسموه effective price اللي
+
+549
+00:46:18,770 --> 00:46:26,080
+صار نتيجة زيادة الطلب على ال housingو تسهيلات
+
+550
+00:46:26,080 --> 00:46:29,920
+بالإضافة لتسهيلات الاقتمانية الحكومة و تسهيلات
+
+551
+00:46:29,920 --> 00:46:33,960
+الشركات زاد الطلب على ال housing فال housing صار
+
+552
+00:46:33,960 --> 00:46:37,580
+إذا سعره سبعين ألف صار يرتفع و بوم و بوم مية و
+
+553
+00:46:37,580 --> 00:46:45,080
+أشترين ألف دولار سعر الحقيقي كام؟ سبعين و السعر ال
+
+554
+00:46:45,080 --> 00:46:48,460
+market price مية و أشترين ألف طيب هلأ المستثمرين
+
+555
+00:46:48,460 --> 00:46:52,920
+الناس اللي ال مثلا الأزواج الجديدة راحت تشتري بيت
+
+556
+00:46:52,920 --> 00:46:57,400
+دفعت كام مية و أشترين ألف؟و سأله الحقيقه كام؟ سبع
+
+557
+00:46:57,400 --> 00:47:03,140
+ألف طيب مين الكفانة للموضوع الحكومة؟ هدول لو فكروا
+
+558
+00:47:03,140 --> 00:47:07,840
+يبيعوا ال ..
+
+559
+00:47:07,840 --> 00:47:15,260
+ال حكومة
+
+560
+00:47:15,260 --> 00:47:20,530
+بتضمن يعني بتعمل جارنتية على القرضيعني ال
+
+561
+00:47:20,530 --> 00:47:24,070
+collateral يعني مش زي احنا هنا بثقافتنا مثلا بس
+
+562
+00:47:24,070 --> 00:47:27,710
+خلّي .. إيش اسمك أنت؟ ماي .. ماي مش زي إحنا هتروح
+
+563
+00:47:27,710 --> 00:47:30,030
+على ال bank يحكولك أعطيني اتنين كفلة هذا الكلام
+
+564
+00:47:30,030 --> 00:47:33,410
+تقريبا مش موجود عندهم، إيش اللي بيصير؟ لأن هدول
+
+565
+00:47:33,410 --> 00:47:38,730
+أزواج شابة، تمام؟ ففيش مين بيكفلهم؟ بيكفلهم
+
+566
+00:47:38,730 --> 00:47:43,030
+الحكومة يعني في حال أنه صار في default يعني
+
+567
+00:47:43,030 --> 00:47:46,940
+ماقدروش يدفعوا، مين اللي بيدفع عنهم؟الحكومة طيب
+
+568
+00:47:46,940 --> 00:47:50,660
+هلأ السعر مية و عشرين ألف لو هدول الأزواج فكروا
+
+569
+00:47:50,660 --> 00:47:55,220
+بلي ببيعوا ببيعوا ال house تبعهم بكم هيبيعوه؟
+
+570
+00:47:55,220 --> 00:47:58,440
+سبعين دولة هيبيعوه لإنه صار في drop في اللي
+
+571
+00:47:58,440 --> 00:48:01,560
+هيبيعوه بسبعين ألف طب ال خمسين ألف هذه خسارة لهم
+
+572
+00:48:01,560 --> 00:48:06,460
+مظبوط ولا لأ؟ وبالتالي صاروا إيش يسووا هدول؟ إي
+
+573
+00:48:06,460 --> 00:48:07,840
+بطلوا يدفعوا الفلوس تبعتهم
+
+574
+00:48:10,940 --> 00:48:14,460
+لأنه صار في over valued لل housing صار أسعار مائة
+
+575
+00:48:14,460 --> 00:48:17,560
+و عشرين ألف و هو سعره الحقيقي سبعين ألف و بالتالي
+
+576
+00:48:17,560 --> 00:48:22,560
+صاروا يخفضوا الدفعهم و المشاكل في أقلية الدفاع
+
+577
+00:48:22,560 --> 00:48:26,440
+فمين بيضغط الموضوع ال governments طب ال
+
+578
+00:48:26,440 --> 00:48:30,420
+governments شو هتسوي هتدفع هتبدأ تغطي ال block ال
+
+579
+00:48:30,420 --> 00:48:35,120
+government مفترض عندها عندها خمسة مليون okay مفترض
+
+580
+00:48:35,120 --> 00:48:39,000
+عندها خمسة مليون okayهدول خمسة مليون محتوطين في
+
+581
+00:48:39,000 --> 00:48:43,220
+ميزان المدفوعات هتدفع جزء منهم لمين؟ هتدفع جزء
+
+582
+00:48:43,220 --> 00:48:48,920
+منهم ل ال houses طب و في شغلات لل hospitals و في
+
+583
+00:48:48,920 --> 00:48:51,780
+شغلات لل insurance و في شغلات يعني للمستشفيات ده
+
+584
+00:48:51,780 --> 00:48:54,900
+تدفع و ل ال insurance هتدفع و ل الموظفين هتدفع و
+
+585
+00:48:54,900 --> 00:49:00,340
+كل شيء فبتروح ايش بتسوي؟ بتخفضالنسب دعم الطبقات
+
+586
+00:49:00,340 --> 00:49:03,020
+الأخرى فبيبدأ الاقتصاد يشنزر و بيصير عندنا أزمة
+
+587
+00:49:03,020 --> 00:49:05,920
+مالية و بيصيروا يستغلوا على الموظفين و بيصيروا
+
+588
+00:49:05,920 --> 00:49:10,340
+مايدفعوش مثلا لل .. لل .. بيشتغلوا في ال .. ال ..
+
+589
+00:49:10,340 --> 00:49:14,060
+مثلا كبار السن و بيصير عندك أزمة مالية طبعا هذه ب
+
+590
+00:49:14,060 --> 00:49:20,300
+.. بحدود بسيط بعدك الأزمة وصلت لمراحل متقدمة ماشي
+
+591
+00:49:20,300 --> 00:49:21,280
+انجلت عند هذا الحد
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/Vxx95XDXi4E_raw.json b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/Vxx95XDXi4E_raw.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..b7645e59d1c79c071f0822a208bc57b11e75c511
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/Vxx95XDXi4E_raw.json
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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"طب ال return هو شو راح يصير فيه؟ كل ما حكينا ال price بتنخفض العواقد هتطلع، تمام؟ وبالتالي هذا راح يصير two to two لما يصل أو يطلع هيك لما يصل لمرحلة عادية، بيصير عن نقطة التعدد، لما يصير لمرحلة there is no mispricing لما يصير لمرحلة there is no mispricing بيصير efficient market", "tokens": [9566, 3555, 2423, 2736, 31439, 13412, 2407, 12602, 39319, 7251, 9381, 13546, 8978, 3224, 22807, 28242, 19446, 11331, 4117, 1829, 8315, 2423, 3218, 39894, 1863, 9778, 5172, 11242, 18863, 14407, 4587, 3215, 8032, 2655, 9566, 1211, 3615, 12399, 46811, 10943, 22807, 46599, 6027, 2655, 6027, 1829, 23758, 12602, 39319, 7251, 9381, 13546, 732, 281, 732, 5296, 15042, 7251, 36520, 34051, 7251, 9566, 1211, 3615, 39896, 4117, 5296, 15042, 7251, 36520, 5296, 29973, 5016, 37977, 6225, 18513, 10632, 12399, 4724, 1829, 9381, 13546, 18871, 8717, 47432, 3660, 16712, 22488, 3215, 12399, 5296, 15042, 7251, 9381, 13546, 5296, 29973, 5016, 37977, 456, 307, 572, 3346, 79, 1341, 278, 5296, 15042, 7251, 9381, 13546, 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"end": 644.51, "word": " عن", "probability": 0.287841796875}, {"start": 644.51, "end": 644.79, "word": " نقطة", "probability": 0.9881184895833334}, {"start": 644.79, "end": 646.19, "word": " التعدد،", "probability": 0.447906494140625}, {"start": 646.19, "end": 646.41, "word": " لما", "probability": 0.978271484375}, {"start": 646.41, "end": 646.71, "word": " يصير", "probability": 0.9915364583333334}, {"start": 646.71, "end": 647.33, "word": " لمرحلة", "probability": 0.92822265625}, {"start": 647.33, "end": 647.85, "word": " there", "probability": 0.8388671875}, {"start": 647.85, "end": 648.01, "word": " is", "probability": 0.93017578125}, {"start": 648.01, "end": 648.51, "word": " no", "probability": 0.95947265625}, {"start": 648.51, "end": 650.59, "word": " mispricing", "probability": 0.77520751953125}, {"start": 650.59, "end": 651.45, "word": " لما", "probability": 0.738525390625}, {"start": 651.45, "end": 651.61, "word": " يصير", "probability": 0.9905598958333334}, {"start": 651.61, "end": 652.03, "word": " لمرحلة", "probability": 0.9925537109375}, {"start": 652.03, "end": 652.19, "word": " there", "probability": 0.90673828125}, {"start": 652.19, "end": 652.29, "word": " is", "probability": 0.95703125}, {"start": 652.29, "end": 652.41, "word": " no", "probability": 0.95947265625}, {"start": 652.41, "end": 653.69, "word": " mispricing", "probability": 0.9332275390625}, {"start": 653.69, "end": 654.91, "word": " بيصير", "probability": 0.83123779296875}, {"start": 654.91, "end": 655.35, "word": " efficient", "probability": 0.8876953125}, {"start": 655.35, "end": 656.93, "word": " market", "probability": 0.919921875}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 24, "seek": 68967, "start": 659.93, "end": 689.67, "text": "لما يكون عندنا مرحلة انه مافيششي عندنا miss pricing يكون there is no efficient markets there is no arbitrage عارفة يعني arbitrage؟ ايش معنى arbitrage؟ مافيش مراجحات بتصير arbitrage there is no arbitrage اذا ال efficient markets هو السوق اللي بيعكس ال risk and 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"word": " return", "probability": 0.94287109375}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 30, "seek": 83226, "start": 824.76, "end": 832.26, "text": "هذا مسمى ايش passive management طيب passive management they don't believe on mispricing", "tokens": [3224, 15730, 3714, 38251, 7578, 1975, 1829, 8592, 14975, 4592, 23032, 1829, 3555, 14975, 4592, 436, 500, 380, 1697, 322, 3346, 79, 1341, 278], "avg_logprob": -0.2996874904632568, "compression_ratio": 1.1111111111111112, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 824.76, "end": 825.06, "word": "هذا", "probability": 0.804931640625}, {"start": 825.06, "end": 825.46, "word": " مسمى", "probability": 0.6719563802083334}, {"start": 825.46, "end": 825.78, "word": " ايش", "probability": 0.6636555989583334}, {"start": 825.78, "end": 826.56, "word": " passive", "probability": 0.763671875}, {"start": 826.56, "end": 827.22, "word": " management", "probability": 0.8916015625}, {"start": 827.22, "end": 828.28, "word": " طيب", "probability": 0.908203125}, {"start": 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{"start": 853.08, "end": 853.62, "word": " بيستثمروا", "probability": 0.930908203125}, {"start": 853.62, "end": 853.72, "word": " في", "probability": 0.50390625}, {"start": 853.72, "end": 853.86, "word": " خط", "probability": 0.9375}, {"start": 853.86, "end": 854.16, "word": " السوق", "probability": 0.90771484375}, {"start": 854.16, "end": 854.54, "word": " بيشوفوا", "probability": 0.91630859375}, {"start": 854.54, "end": 854.86, "word": " الأسهم", "probability": 0.94091796875}, {"start": 854.86, "end": 855.38, "word": " المدرجة", "probability": 0.98779296875}, {"start": 855.38, "end": 855.56, "word": " او", "probability": 0.703369140625}, {"start": 855.56, "end": 856.12, "word": " المحلوة", "probability": 0.77177734375}, {"start": 856.12, "end": 856.26, "word": " على", "probability": 0.89306640625}, {"start": 856.26, "end": 856.5, "word": " خط", "probability": 0.955322265625}, {"start": 856.5, "end": 856.86, "word": " السوق", "probability": 0.990966796875}, {"start": 856.86, "end": 857.04, "word": " او", "probability": 0.90283203125}, {"start": 857.04, "end": 857.12, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.66748046875}, {"start": 857.12, "end": 857.56, "word": " securities", "probability": 0.9931640625}, {"start": 857.56, "end": 857.74, "word": " و", "probability": 0.791015625}, {"start": 857.74, "end": 858.0, "word": " بيعملوا", "probability": 0.930859375}, {"start": 858.0, "end": 858.36, "word": " استثمار", "probability": 0.978515625}, {"start": 858.36, "end": 859.2, "word": " عليها", "probability": 0.96142578125}, {"start": 859.2, "end": 859.54, "word": " هذا", "probability": 0.85595703125}, {"start": 859.54, "end": 860.0, "word": " بيسميهم", "probability": 0.866162109375}, {"start": 860.0, "end": 860.4, "word": " شو؟", "probability": 0.6830240885416666}, {"start": 860.4, "end": 860.82, "word": " بيسميهم", "probability": 0.92783203125}, {"start": 860.82, "end": 861.28, "word": " passive", "probability": 0.89453125}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 32, "seek": 87807, "start": 864.35, "end": 878.07, "text": "passive managements يعني في ال passive managements في عندنا ورقة A و في عندنا B و في عندنا C هدول passive passive managements هدول passive managements", "tokens": [9216, 488, 3067, 1117, 37495, 22653, 8978, 2423, 14975, 3067, 1117, 8978, 43242, 8315, 4032, 2288, 28671, 316, 4032, 8978, 43242, 8315, 363, 4032, 8978, 43242, 8315, 383, 8032, 3215, 12610, 14975, 14975, 3067, 1117, 8032, 3215, 12610, 14975, 3067, 1117], "avg_logprob": -0.16582961132129034, "compression_ratio": 2.075268817204301, "no_speech_prob": 2.384185791015625e-07, "words": [{"start": 864.35, "end": 864.83, "word": "passive", "probability": 0.6859130859375}, {"start": 864.83, "end": 865.41, "word": " managements", "probability": 0.742431640625}, {"start": 865.41, "end": 866.53, "word": " يعني", "probability": 0.73828125}, {"start": 866.53, "end": 866.63, "word": " في", "probability": 0.95751953125}, {"start": 866.63, "end": 866.71, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.54052734375}, {"start": 866.71, "end": 866.95, "word": " passive", "probability": 0.9423828125}, {"start": 866.95, "end": 867.53, "word": " managements", "probability": 0.920166015625}, {"start": 867.53, "end": 867.71, "word": " في", "probability": 0.705078125}, {"start": 867.71, "end": 868.19, "word": " عندنا", "probability": 0.897216796875}, {"start": 868.19, "end": 868.97, "word": " ورقة", "probability": 0.9484049479166666}, {"start": 868.97, "end": 869.23, "word": " A", "probability": 0.57568359375}, {"start": 869.23, "end": 869.57, "word": " و", "probability": 0.9443359375}, {"start": 869.57, "end": 869.69, "word": " في", "probability": 0.6015625}, {"start": 869.69, "end": 870.01, "word": " عندنا", "probability": 0.9609375}, {"start": 870.01, "end": 870.17, "word": " B", "probability": 0.9423828125}, {"start": 870.17, "end": 870.35, "word": " و", "probability": 0.99365234375}, {"start": 870.35, "end": 870.45, "word": " في", "probability": 0.958984375}, {"start": 870.45, "end": 870.71, "word": " عندنا", "probability": 0.9697265625}, {"start": 870.71, "end": 870.93, "word": " C", "probability": 0.9775390625}, {"start": 870.93, "end": 871.99, "word": " هدول", "probability": 0.85888671875}, {"start": 871.99, "end": 872.37, "word": " passive", "probability": 0.97119140625}, {"start": 872.37, "end": 875.33, "word": " passive", "probability": 0.90283203125}, {"start": 875.33, "end": 875.85, "word": " managements", "probability": 0.961669921875}, {"start": 875.85, "end": 877.09, "word": " هدول", "probability": 0.9560546875}, {"start": 877.09, "end": 877.39, "word": " passive", "probability": 0.9345703125}, {"start": 877.39, "end": 878.07, "word": " managements", "probability": 0.9677734375}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 33, "seek": 90882, "start": 880.22, "end": 908.82, "text": "they don't change in their investment style ايش معناه investment style يعني بغيروش في سلوكهم الاستثماري خلاص بيضلهم على ال a و b و ال c لإنه بيعرفوا انه a و b و c هم موزعين على خط السوق وبالتالي هم أخدوا 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في السوق الآن is not equal the actual price طبعا من ناحية from financial perspective من وجهة نظر الماليين هم الماليين ضرر عندهم معادلات تحسب ال actual price بيقدروا يحسبوا ال actual price و ال market price معروف فالفرق بين هذا و بين هذا إيش بتسميه", "tokens": [28814, 15730, 2423, 3539, 3218, 19446, 4724, 1829, 3794, 45865, 8592, 2423, 2142, 3218, 13672, 1829, 39894, 8592, 38688, 2407, 3224, 21136, 3615, 2288, 13672, 1829, 3714, 29245, 23328, 8978, 21136, 30543, 6024, 48506, 307, 406, 2681, 264, 3539, 3218, 23032, 3555, 3615, 995, 9154, 8717, 39319, 10632, 490, 4669, 4585, 9154, 49610, 3224, 3660, 8717, 19913, 2288, 9673, 6027, 1829, 9957, 8032, 2304, 9673, 6027, 1829, 9957, 48812, 2288, 2288, 43242, 16095, 20449, 18513, 1211, 9307, 6055, 5016, 35457, 2423, 3539, 3218, 4724, 1829, 28543, 2288, 14407, 7251, 5016, 35457, 14407, 2423, 3539, 3218, 4032, 2423, 2142, 3218, 20449, 32887, 5172, 6156, 6027, 5172, 2288, 4587, 49374, 23758, 4032, 49374, 23758, 11933, 1829, 8592, 39894, 38251, 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1391.45, "text": "طب و هذا الخط إيش اسمه؟ لزرق market price طيب إذا هذا ال actually price and this is the market price فاهمين لللحظة هذه؟ ناخد احنا .. ناخد أي نقطة .. أي نقطة على السوق، النقطة هذه و لا تكن أي نقطة", "tokens": [9566, 3555, 4032, 23758, 33962, 9566, 11933, 1829, 8592, 24525, 2304, 3224, 22807, 5296, 11622, 2288, 4587, 2142, 3218, 23032, 1829, 3555, 11933, 15730, 23758, 2423, 767, 3218, 293, 341, 307, 264, 2142, 3218, 6156, 995, 16095, 9957, 24976, 1211, 5016, 19913, 3660, 29538, 22807, 8717, 47283, 3215, 1975, 5016, 8315, 4386, 8717, 47283, 3215, 36632, 8717, 47432, 3660, 4386, 36632, 8717, 47432, 3660, 15844, 21136, 30543, 12399, 28239, 47432, 3660, 29538, 4032, 20193, 6055, 19452, 36632, 8717, 47432, 3660], "avg_logprob": -0.2255015461533158, "compression_ratio": 1.6108108108108108, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 1373.07, "end": 1373.29, "word": "طب", "probability": 0.786376953125}, {"start": 1373.29, "end": 1373.37, "word": " و", "probability": 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"probability": 0.88525390625}, {"start": 1422.02, "end": 1422.52, "word": " price", "probability": 0.95947265625}, {"start": 1422.52, "end": 1423.26, "word": " كان", "probability": 0.52197265625}, {"start": 1423.26, "end": 1424.06, "word": " الكرة", "probability": 0.5728759765625}, {"start": 1424.06, "end": 1424.18, "word": " اللي", "probability": 0.872802734375}, {"start": 1424.18, "end": 1424.76, "word": " بنضربها", "probability": 0.893798828125}, {"start": 1424.76, "end": 1425.16, "word": " بتظلها", "probability": 0.63177490234375}, {"start": 1425.16, "end": 1425.5, "word": " واقفة", "probability": 0.9796142578125}, {"start": 1425.5, "end": 1425.68, "word": " عند", "probability": 0.94287109375}, {"start": 1425.68, "end": 1426.08, "word": " نقطة", "probability": 0.9803059895833334}, {"start": 1426.08, "end": 1426.48, "word": " محددة", "probability": 0.9920247395833334}, {"start": 1426.48, "end": 1426.7, "word": " وهذا", "probability": 0.652587890625}, {"start": 1426.7, "end": 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variance لو احنا نحسب بلغة الإحصال variance التباين عالي لكن لو أجينا احنا هان التباين ال variance أو sigma قليلة كتير و هذا الفرق بين أسواق شركة فيها كفاءة في التسعير و شركة كفائتها أقل في التسعير", "tokens": [3615, 6027, 10632, 2423, 21977, 45164, 1975, 5016, 8315, 8717, 5016, 35457, 4724, 1211, 17082, 3660, 33688, 5016, 9381, 6027, 21977, 16712, 3555, 995, 9957, 6225, 6027, 1829, 44381, 45164, 5551, 7435, 1829, 8315, 1975, 5016, 8315, 8032, 7649, 16712, 3555, 995, 9957, 2423, 21977, 34051, 12771, 12174, 20292, 37977, 9122, 2655, 13546, 4032, 23758, 27188, 2288, 4587, 49374, 5551, 3794, 14407, 4587, 13412, 31747, 3660, 8978, 11296, 9122, 5172, 16606, 3660, 8978, 16712, 3794, 3615, 13546, 4032, 13412, 31747, 3660, 9122, 5172, 16373, 2655, 11296, 5551, 4587, 1211, 8978, 16712, 3794, 3615, 13546], "avg_logprob": -0.14786183645850734, "compression_ratio": 1.8956043956043955, "no_speech_prob": 5.125999450683594e-06, "words": [{"start": 2149.4, "end": 2149.92, "word": "عالية", 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"end": 2342.17, "text": "هلا ممتازين رضى الله ان شاء الله اذا احنا حكينا عن ال active management حكينا عن ال mis pricing و timing the markets اللي انت سألتي timing the markets يعني احنا بندخل في السوق لما نشعر انه there is mis pricing okay طيب و ال passive management حكيناها okay دي players مين ال players اللي في السوق المالي؟", "tokens": [3224, 15040, 3714, 2304, 2655, 31377, 9957, 12602, 11242, 7578, 21984, 16472, 13412, 16606, 21984, 1975, 15730, 1975, 5016, 8315, 11331, 4117, 1829, 8315, 18871, 2423, 4967, 4592, 11331, 4117, 1829, 8315, 18871, 2423, 3346, 17621, 4032, 10822, 264, 8383, 13672, 1829, 16472, 2655, 8608, 10721, 1211, 31371, 10822, 264, 8383, 37495, 22653, 1975, 5016, 8315, 44945, 3215, 9778, 1211, 8978, 21136, 30543, 5296, 15042, 8717, 8592, 3615, 2288, 16472, 3224, 456, 307, 3346, 17621, 1392, 23032, 1829, 3555, 4032, 2423, 14975, 4592, 11331, 4117, 1829, 8315, 11296, 1392, 11778, 1829, 4150, 3714, 9957, 2423, 4150, 13672, 1829, 8978, 21136, 30543, 9673, 6027, 1829, 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\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/Vxx95XDXi4E_raw.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/Vxx95XDXi4E_raw.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..d704f98a1d0589c554eeeec688c9349bc2ba1cbf
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/Vxx95XDXi4E_raw.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,2368 @@
+1
+00:00:20,820 --> 00:00:25,600
+لأ احنا اللقاء الفات حكينا في ال risk and return
+
+2
+00:00:25,600 --> 00:00:31,380
+okay risk and return هو في علاقة opposite أو
+
+3
+00:00:31,380 --> 00:00:35,200
+positive positive relationship between risk and
+
+4
+00:00:35,200 --> 00:00:40,660
+return يعني بتكون بهذا الشكل لو احنا حطينا هذا
+
+5
+00:00:40,660 --> 00:00:48,480
+risk و حطينا هذا return فالعلاقة
+
+6
+00:00:48,480 --> 00:00:53,890
+بتكون هيكل ما بيزيد ال risk بيزيد ال return هذا
+
+7
+00:00:53,890 --> 00:00:59,050
+مبدأ بيسموه بال .. بال economics there is no free
+
+8
+00:00:59,050 --> 00:01:03,770
+lunch there is no free lunch there is no free
+
+9
+00:01:03,770 --> 00:01:07,890
+lunch يعني مافيش إيش ببلاش يعني لما نروح على مطعم
+
+10
+00:01:07,890 --> 00:01:15,730
+مثلا لازم ندفع لما نخلص الأكل صح ولا لأ نفس الشغل
+
+11
+00:01:15,730 --> 00:01:19,150
+بالنسبة للمستثمرينلما بيعملوا علاقة بال risk and
+
+12
+00:01:19,150 --> 00:01:23,030
+return المستثمرين اللي بدهم عائد عالي بدهم يتحملوا
+
+13
+00:01:23,030 --> 00:01:29,370
+مخاطر عالية and vice versa و العكس صحيح okay يعني
+
+14
+00:01:29,370 --> 00:01:34,450
+مثلا انا لما بقى تاجر في ال .. بيسير استثمار في
+
+15
+00:01:34,450 --> 00:01:41,310
+استثمارات مخاطرها منخفضة هان فبتكون العائد منخفض
+
+16
+00:01:41,310 --> 00:01:43,510
+تمام؟
+
+17
+00:01:44,440 --> 00:01:49,820
+وإذا أنا استثمرت في مخاطر عالية فهيكون العائد عالي
+
+18
+00:01:49,820 --> 00:01:56,000
+okay طبعا
+
+19
+00:01:56,000 --> 00:02:00,860
+لو أنا استثمرت في هذا في الاستثمارات هنا هيكون ال
+
+20
+00:02:00,860 --> 00:02:07,060
+risk هذا أعلى من ال risk وبالتالي ال return هيكون
+
+21
+00:02:07,060 --> 00:02:07,400
+أعلى
+
+22
+00:02:10,530 --> 00:02:13,970
+طبيعي حد بيستطيه يعطينا مثل بالواقع العملي الموجود
+
+23
+00:02:13,970 --> 00:02:17,850
+عندنا بحياتنا بغزا مثلا لأن السؤال الأول عندكم بال
+
+24
+00:02:17,850 --> 00:02:21,230
+.. بال assignment مطلوب منك أن نعمل two
+
+25
+00:02:21,230 --> 00:02:24,670
+reflections on the investment environment in Gaza
+
+26
+00:02:24,670 --> 00:02:27,550
+فبنعرف أيش ال investment environment في .. في
+
+27
+00:02:27,550 --> 00:02:31,310
+خطاعة غزا in the light of the definitions of the
+
+28
+00:02:31,310 --> 00:02:36,120
+investment environment طيبهد بيستطيع تاني مثال كيف
+
+29
+00:02:36,120 --> 00:02:39,700
+كل ما زادت العائد كل ما زادت مخاطر بيزيد العائد في
+
+30
+00:02:39,700 --> 00:02:44,580
+الاستثمارات اه تفضلي ال real estate ال real estate
+
+31
+00:02:44,580 --> 00:02:51,200
+اه طيب
+
+32
+00:02:51,200 --> 00:02:58,080
+لو اعطينا مثال كمان شو رأيكم مين اكثر مخاطر نحط
+
+33
+00:02:58,080 --> 00:03:05,130
+وديعة في بنك ولا نحط فلوسنا للاستثمار بالانفاقبدنا
+
+34
+00:03:05,130 --> 00:03:10,750
+.. بدنا جواب من البنات اللي ورا، إيش رأيك؟ وضيع في
+
+35
+00:03:10,750 --> 00:03:15,950
+bank و أقل مخاطر و أقل عاقد، تمام والاستثمار
+
+36
+00:03:15,950 --> 00:03:22,830
+بالأنفاق أظن وضحت الصورة، إذا كل ما أنا بدي أغامر
+
+37
+00:03:22,830 --> 00:03:27,410
+كل ما بتحمل المغامرة، كل ما زادت المخاطر كل ما
+
+38
+00:03:27,410 --> 00:03:30,210
+بزيد العاقد، تمام؟
+
+39
+00:03:33,550 --> 00:03:39,330
+ال .. كل الأسواق .. كل الأوراق المالية ممثلة على
+
+40
+00:03:39,330 --> 00:03:42,650
+خط السوق هذا بيسميه خط السوق اللي هو security
+
+41
+00:03:42,650 --> 00:03:48,390
+market line بيسميه خط السوق يعني كل الاستثمارات
+
+42
+00:03:48,390 --> 00:03:52,890
+لازم تكون تعكس المخاطر و تعكس العقد احنا مثلا لها
+
+43
+00:03:52,890 --> 00:03:58,510
+.. احنا حكينا مثلا الأنفاق بيسموهم tunnels الاشال
+
+44
+00:03:58,510 --> 00:04:01,830
+tunnels investment in tunnels يعني روحنا شوفنا
+
+45
+00:04:01,830 --> 00:04:04,770
+واحد و أعطينا له فلوسنا و قدّاله استثمرنا في ال
+
+46
+00:04:04,770 --> 00:04:08,690
+tunnels طبعا هذه مخاطر ماينفعش ييجي المستثمر
+
+47
+00:04:08,690 --> 00:04:13,290
+يحكيلي أنه أنا حطيت فلوسي و راحوا علي طبعا أكيد
+
+48
+00:04:13,290 --> 00:04:16,830
+راح يروح عليك لأن هذا is a high risk investment
+
+49
+00:04:16,830 --> 00:04:24,010
+المخاطر عالية فيه فالمخاطر هتكون عالية كتير
+
+50
+00:04:28,140 --> 00:04:31,680
+هلأ إذا كان السوق هو efficient إذا كان السوق إيش
+
+51
+00:04:31,680 --> 00:04:34,700
+ماله efficient efficient يعني إذا كان السوق كفق
+
+52
+00:04:34,700 --> 00:04:42,680
+إذا كان السوق إيش كفق إيش يعني السوق كفق السوق كفق
+
+53
+00:04:42,680 --> 00:04:46,420
+بيعني every security reflect security معناه ورقة
+
+54
+00:04:46,420 --> 00:04:51,340
+مالية every security reflect the risk and return
+
+55
+00:04:51,340 --> 00:04:53,160
+on the security market line
+
+56
+00:04:56,150 --> 00:04:59,990
+يعني بتعكس المخاطر تبعتها على خط السوق طب لو احنا
+
+57
+00:04:59,990 --> 00:05:06,570
+شوفنا ال .. ال .. الوضع كتالي لو كان عندي ..
+
+58
+00:05:06,570 --> 00:05:09,650
+انتبهوا معايا .. لو كان عندي استثمار بالأنفاخ هم
+
+59
+00:05:09,650 --> 00:05:17,010
+.. شوفوا وين؟ ايش معناه الكلام؟ احكي .. احكي ..
+
+60
+00:05:17,010 --> 00:05:20,970
+حسب الرسم .. بالعربي مش مشكلة، اتطلع فيها منيح
+
+61
+00:05:20,970 --> 00:05:29,410
+مخاطر قليلة وعاليهذا ايش بنسميه؟ هل هذا صحيح؟ هذا
+
+62
+00:05:29,410 --> 00:05:36,530
+اسمه miss pricing ايش اسمه؟ miss pricing سوق تسعير
+
+63
+00:05:36,530 --> 00:05:43,050
+اذا وجدنا حالة زي هيك اذا وجدنا حالة من هالنوع في
+
+64
+00:05:43,050 --> 00:05:48,870
+السوق معنى الكلام ان السوق المالي غير كفو طب احنا
+
+65
+00:05:48,870 --> 00:05:54,720
+أخدنا هذا بالنسبة لل tunnels شوفوا ال tunnelsطيب
+
+66
+00:05:54,720 --> 00:05:58,040
+لو أخدنا ال CDs ايش معنى ال CDs ال CDs اللي هو
+
+67
+00:05:58,040 --> 00:06:01,300
+certificate of deposits اللي هو الودائع لو احنا
+
+68
+00:06:01,300 --> 00:06:06,820
+أخدنا الودائع و حطناها بهذا الشكل شوفوا هان بدي
+
+69
+00:06:06,820 --> 00:06:10,040
+تحكيلي انت شو يعني وجود الودائع هان what it means
+
+70
+00:06:10,040 --> 00:06:16,000
+ال .. البنت الوراق اه فضلي مخاطرة
+
+71
+00:06:16,000 --> 00:06:21,800
+عالية صح؟ منخفض هذا صحيح؟ ممكن يصير في الودائع؟
+
+72
+00:06:22,500 --> 00:06:28,580
+المفروض المضايق وين تكون؟ تكون مخاطر منخفضة هذا
+
+73
+00:06:28,580 --> 00:06:35,360
+إيش بتسميه كمان مرة؟ mispricing سوق .. سوق تسعير
+
+74
+00:06:35,360 --> 00:06:41,200
+طبعا إذا إحنا شفنا فيه mispricing في السوق معناه
+
+75
+00:06:41,200 --> 00:06:47,120
+كلام السوق غير كفوء السوق المالي غير كفوء وهذا
+
+76
+00:06:47,120 --> 00:06:50,060
+اللي بيخلينا نحكي عن ال efficient markets ال
+
+77
+00:06:50,060 --> 00:06:53,810
+efficient marketsال efficient market اللي هو السوق
+
+78
+00:06:53,810 --> 00:06:59,210
+المالي الكفوء السوق المالي الكفوء بيعكس ال risk و
+
+79
+00:06:59,210 --> 00:07:04,870
+ال return and there is no mispricing وفيش ايش
+
+80
+00:07:04,870 --> 00:07:09,130
+mispricing فيش سوق تسعير طب الأسواق الأوروبية و
+
+81
+00:07:09,130 --> 00:07:12,850
+الأمريكية هى هل كفقة و لا غير كفقة كفقة بس بيصير
+
+82
+00:07:12,850 --> 00:07:17,410
+mispricing فى الحالة هى بيسمى الأسواق الأمريكية و
+
+83
+00:07:17,410 --> 00:07:23,860
+الأمريكية is nearly efficientis إيش nearly
+
+84
+00:07:23,860 --> 00:07:30,560
+efficient يعني هي تقريبا كفؤة طبعا يعني بيصير فيها
+
+85
+00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:34,700
+miss pricing لكن ال miss pricing هذا بيكون قليل
+
+86
+00:07:34,700 --> 00:07:41,440
+جدا and very limited و كتير محدود طيب خليني نرجع و
+
+87
+00:07:41,440 --> 00:07:45,280
+لل .. إذا كان عندنا الحالة الأولى كنا احنا في ال
+
+88
+00:07:45,280 --> 00:07:52,250
+tunnels و كان عندناعائد عالي و مخاطر منخفضة، إيش
+
+89
+00:07:52,250 --> 00:07:55,930
+المستثمرين المفروض يساويوا في الحالة هذه؟ انت لو
+
+90
+00:07:55,930 --> 00:08:00,770
+شفت هالحالة بتزيد استثمار، اذا buying، نشتري، صح؟
+
+91
+00:08:00,770 --> 00:08:05,010
+نشتري في ال .. نشتغل أو نشتري الاستثمارات، هنا
+
+92
+00:08:05,010 --> 00:08:08,770
+شراء طب كل ما احنا بنشتري، شو بيصير في الأسعار؟
+
+93
+00:08:08,770 --> 00:08:14,970
+ايوة، شوفوا اللي بيصير كل ما .. نحكي على ال price،
+
+94
+00:08:14,970 --> 00:08:19,420
+هلا ركزوا معايا، priceنفطر الأسعار بتاع الاسهان
+
+95
+00:08:19,420 --> 00:08:24,020
+كانت وشوفنا الحالة زي هذه إيش راح يصير؟ راح تصير
+
+96
+00:08:24,020 --> 00:08:29,660
+الأسعار ترتفع وكل ما بترتفع الأسعار العائد شو
+
+97
+00:08:29,660 --> 00:08:36,340
+بيصير فيه بنخفض العائد بنخفض كل ما ترتفع الأسعار
+
+98
+00:08:36,340 --> 00:08:41,400
+.. تذكر دايما كيسة طحين و الكيبريتا كل ما ارتفع
+
+99
+00:08:41,400 --> 00:08:45,360
+سعر كيسة طحين كل ما العائد تبعه شو بيصير فيه بنخفض
+
+100
+00:08:45,360 --> 00:08:48,530
+و الكيبريتا العائد تبعها أعلى من ..أو chips
+
+101
+00:08:48,530 --> 00:08:54,490
+الأطفال، تذكرين؟ يعني شوفوا يعني ال .. ال .. كيس
+
+102
+00:08:54,490 --> 00:08:57,910
+الحين الكبير و ال chips الصغير بس عائلة ال chips
+
+103
+00:08:57,910 --> 00:09:02,290
+الصغير أعلى من .. لأنه ال price فاللي بيصير أن
+
+104
+00:09:02,290 --> 00:09:07,170
+احنا هون بال .. ال tunnels بيصيروا مستفرين فيها
+
+105
+00:09:07,170 --> 00:09:13,090
+miss pricingال best pricing انه return عالي كتير و
+
+106
+00:09:13,090 --> 00:09:16,170
+مخاطر مخفضة فالمستثمرين بيصيروا focus on this
+
+107
+00:09:16,170 --> 00:09:20,790
+بيصيروا ركزوا عليه فال price بتبدأ تطلع تطلع و
+
+108
+00:09:20,790 --> 00:09:23,950
+العكس بيصير ال return كل ما ال price تطلع ال
+
+109
+00:09:23,950 --> 00:09:28,670
+return شو بيصير لما احنا طبعا هي موجودة لما بينزل
+
+110
+00:09:28,670 --> 00:09:33,040
+هيكيكيك و بيصير على ال security market lineلما
+
+111
+00:09:33,040 --> 00:09:38,200
+يصير عند نقطة التوازن يعني هو بيكون هك صار لما رجع
+
+112
+00:09:38,200 --> 00:09:41,740
+وصار على نقطة التوازن عندما يصل لمرحلة انه is fair
+
+113
+00:09:41,740 --> 00:09:49,820
+هو ال risk is equal to return طب لو
+
+114
+00:09:49,820 --> 00:09:56,060
+أجينا احنا لهنا شو بيصير؟ under priced البنات اللي
+
+115
+00:09:56,060 --> 00:10:01,810
+ه .. لو ال CDs احنا شوفوا ال CDsشهادات الإيداع
+
+116
+00:10:01,810 --> 00:10:07,130
+وودائع إيش شهادات الودائع؟ هي مخاطرها زي ما تشوف
+
+117
+00:10:07,130 --> 00:10:11,330
+عالية كتير شوفوا ال risk عالي والعائد مخفض طب شو
+
+118
+00:10:11,330 --> 00:10:16,650
+المستثمرين شو روح يسويها؟ هيخفضوا استثمارهم
+
+119
+00:10:16,650 --> 00:10:21,570
+هيبيعوا طيب هنرجع لل price خليني أحوال لل price
+
+120
+00:10:21,570 --> 00:10:25,570
+هاي هان ال price ناخد بال .. بال .. بالأخضر ال CDs
+
+121
+00:10:25,570 --> 00:10:31,010
+كانت هان ال price إيش هيصير فيها؟ هتنخفضطب ال
+
+122
+00:10:31,010 --> 00:10:34,070
+return هو شو راح يصير فيه؟ كل ما حكينا ال price
+
+123
+00:10:34,070 --> 00:10:38,990
+بتنخفض العواقد هتطلع، تمام؟ وبالتالي هذا راح يصير
+
+124
+00:10:38,990 --> 00:10:42,550
+two to two لما يصل أو يطلع هيك لما يصل لمرحلة
+
+125
+00:10:42,550 --> 00:10:47,850
+عادية، بيصير عن نقطة التعدد، لما يصير لمرحلة there
+
+126
+00:10:47,850 --> 00:10:52,410
+is no mispricing لما يصير لمرحلة there is no
+
+127
+00:10:52,410 --> 00:10:56,930
+mispricing بيصير efficient market
+
+128
+00:10:59,930 --> 00:11:02,610
+لما يكون عندنا مرحلة انه مافيششي عندنا miss
+
+129
+00:11:02,610 --> 00:11:06,390
+pricing يكون there is no efficient markets there
+
+130
+00:11:06,390 --> 00:11:09,330
+is no arbitrage عارفة يعني arbitrage؟ ايش معنى
+
+131
+00:11:09,330 --> 00:11:18,330
+arbitrage؟ مافيش مراجحات بتصير arbitrage there is
+
+132
+00:11:18,330 --> 00:11:22,930
+no arbitrage اذا
+
+133
+00:11:22,930 --> 00:11:29,090
+ال efficient markets هو السوق اللي بيعكس ال risk
+
+134
+00:11:29,090 --> 00:11:29,670
+and return
+
+135
+00:11:33,320 --> 00:11:38,200
+في حد عندى سؤال؟ في حد عندى سؤال عن efficient
+
+136
+00:11:38,200 --> 00:11:50,380
+markets؟ طيب
+
+137
+00:11:50,380 --> 00:11:55,680
+أمام الحالة هذه اللى بنشوفها ان فى عندنا miss
+
+138
+00:11:55,680 --> 00:11:59,680
+pricing فى عندنا نوعين من المستثمرين فى عندنا
+
+139
+00:11:59,680 --> 00:12:04,330
+activemanagement وفيه عندنا passive طبعا أكيد
+
+140
+00:12:04,330 --> 00:12:11,490
+قرأته عن ال active و ال passive ال
+
+141
+00:12:11,490 --> 00:12:15,790
+passive او نبدأ بال passive ال passive management
+
+142
+00:12:15,790 --> 00:12:19,170
+they consider that the market is efficient
+
+143
+00:12:19,170 --> 00:12:25,890
+بيعتبروا ال market إيش ماله is efficient السوق كفه
+
+144
+00:12:27,460 --> 00:12:30,940
+وبالتالي إذا السوق كفه any security .. أي security
+
+145
+00:12:30,940 --> 00:12:35,700
+is located in this .. security market line is
+
+146
+00:12:35,700 --> 00:12:39,140
+reflected the risk and return، مظبوط ولا لأ؟ إذا
+
+147
+00:12:39,140 --> 00:12:42,260
+كان السوق efficient، مع كلام أي security على السوق
+
+148
+00:12:42,260 --> 00:12:44,540
+.. على خط السوق بتعكس ال risk and return
+
+149
+00:12:48,000 --> 00:12:51,920
+The managers or the fund managers they do
+
+150
+00:12:51,920 --> 00:12:55,860
+diversifications بيعملوا تنوية based on the
+
+151
+00:12:55,860 --> 00:12:59,200
+securities located in the security market line
+
+152
+00:12:59,200 --> 00:13:06,360
+okay يعني مثلا اطيها
+
+153
+00:13:06,360 --> 00:13:10,820
+البره تاني لو انا معايا مثلا الف دولار معايا الف
+
+154
+00:13:10,820 --> 00:13:16,160
+دولار و بدأ استثمرهم في السوق المالي
+
+155
+00:13:18,930 --> 00:13:24,830
+فانا بختار أي أوراة مالية موجودة على خط السوق
+
+156
+00:13:24,830 --> 00:13:30,170
+نختار A واختارنا B واختارنا C هذا إيش بنسميه لما
+
+157
+00:13:30,170 --> 00:13:34,650
+اختارنا A B C احنا عملنا تنويع عملنا I H تنويع بس
+
+158
+00:13:34,650 --> 00:13:39,310
+احنا فرضنا ان all of the securities located in the
+
+159
+00:13:39,310 --> 00:13:42,730
+security market line reflecting the risk and
+
+160
+00:13:42,730 --> 00:13:46,560
+return back to risk and returnهذا مسمى ايش passive
+
+161
+00:13:46,560 --> 00:13:50,920
+management طيب passive management they don't
+
+162
+00:13:50,920 --> 00:13:55,760
+believe on mispricingما بيعملوش بال mispricing so
+
+163
+00:13:55,760 --> 00:14:00,420
+they allocate their resources they allocate their
+
+164
+00:14:00,420 --> 00:14:04,280
+investments on the security market line and they
+
+165
+00:14:04,280 --> 00:14:08,620
+will define their portfolios based on the security
+
+166
+00:14:08,620 --> 00:14:11,660
+market line portfolios يعني محافظهم الاستثمارية
+
+167
+00:14:11,660 --> 00:14:14,860
+فهم بروحوا بس بيستثمروا في خط السوق بيشوفوا الأسهم
+
+168
+00:14:14,860 --> 00:14:17,740
+المدرجة او المحلوة على خط السوق او ال securities و
+
+169
+00:14:17,740 --> 00:14:20,820
+بيعملوا استثمار عليها هذا بيسميهم شو؟ بيسميهم
+
+170
+00:14:20,820 --> 00:14:21,280
+passive
+
+171
+00:14:24,350 --> 00:14:27,530
+passive managements يعني في ال passive managements
+
+172
+00:14:27,530 --> 00:14:31,990
+في عندنا ورقة A و في عندنا B و في عندنا C هدول
+
+173
+00:14:31,990 --> 00:14:37,390
+passive passive managements هدول passive
+
+174
+00:14:37,390 --> 00:14:43,540
+managementsthey don't change in their investment
+
+175
+00:14:43,540 --> 00:14:47,340
+style ايش معناه investment style يعني بغيروش في
+
+176
+00:14:47,340 --> 00:14:50,580
+سلوكهم الاستثماري خلاص بيضلهم على ال a و b و ال c
+
+177
+00:14:50,580 --> 00:14:54,840
+لإنه بيعرفوا انه a و b و c هم موزعين على خط السوق
+
+178
+00:14:54,840 --> 00:14:57,700
+وبالتالي هم أخدوا مخاطر السوق يعني هم يبقوا مع ال
+
+179
+00:14:57,700 --> 00:15:04,220
+portfolio مابتتغير ماببذلوش جهد كبير عشان هم بس
+
+180
+00:15:04,220 --> 00:15:09,570
+بدهم a و b و c هم سبيين عيد عيد كلامك صحيعني هم
+
+181
+00:15:09,570 --> 00:15:12,590
+عشان يعني بياخدوش غير A وB وC ومثلا ال vegan عشان
+
+182
+00:15:12,590 --> 00:15:16,390
+.. لأنه موزع .. ال A و ال B و ال C زي ما أنتي
+
+183
+00:15:16,390 --> 00:15:20,030
+شايفاها وين ال A و ال B و ال C؟ موزع على خط السوق
+
+184
+00:15:20,030 --> 00:15:25,980
+وبالتالي تم توزيع مخاطر يعني مثلا A ..مخاطرها
+
+185
+00:15:25,980 --> 00:15:31,400
+منخفضة وعائدها منخفض B مخاطرها متوسطة وعائد متوسط
+
+186
+00:15:31,400 --> 00:15:37,280
+و C مخاطر عالية شويه وبالتالي هم بوزع ال portfolio
+
+187
+00:15:37,280 --> 00:15:41,320
+المحفظة بتاعتهم حسب .. حسب اللي هو المخاطر
+
+188
+00:15:41,320 --> 00:15:46,260
+المختلفة وبالتالي عندهم محفظة متوسطة المخاطر يعني
+
+189
+00:15:46,260 --> 00:15:50,060
+لو أخدنا A وB وC على عين الاعتبار شايفين وين اتقاه
+
+190
+00:15:50,060 --> 00:15:53,040
+وبالتالي متوسطة المخاطر وبيحطوا راسهم وبيناموا
+
+191
+00:15:53,040 --> 00:15:58,640
+وبيرتاحواهدوء بيسموهم passive managers طيب، ناخد
+
+192
+00:15:58,640 --> 00:16:03,800
+عكسهم، كنت بتحكي، اتفضلي كيف هم سلبين
+
+193
+00:16:03,800 --> 00:16:07,060
+اصلا؟ كيف؟ هم عاملين موازمة بين المخاطر و بين
+
+194
+00:16:07,060 --> 00:16:09,600
+العائد، يعني هم بيقولوا ان احنا في السوق كله، فهم
+
+195
+00:16:09,600 --> 00:16:14,850
+كيف سلبين؟ passive مش معناها سلبيلأ passive
+
+196
+00:16:14,850 --> 00:16:19,410
+management مش .. يعني هم ما بيغيروش .. بس إيش معنا
+
+197
+00:16:19,410 --> 00:16:24,230
+passive؟ سكون يعني هم ما بيغيروا حسب إيش بتغير
+
+198
+00:16:24,230 --> 00:16:28,150
+السوق خلاص بيغيروش يعني وبالتالي A و B و C بيضلهم
+
+199
+00:16:28,150 --> 00:16:31,970
+على A و B و C بيعملوا أول مرة حسبتهم بيشوفوا إيش
+
+200
+00:16:31,970 --> 00:16:36,250
+في عندنا A عائدها و مخاطرها و B عائدها و مخاطرها و
+
+201
+00:16:36,250 --> 00:16:41,040
+C و بالتالي بيسيلبتغيروش ليش؟ لإن في عندهم فرضية
+
+202
+00:16:41,040 --> 00:16:44,420
+في راسهم ان ال market financial is efficient there
+
+203
+00:16:44,420 --> 00:16:47,920
+is no mispricing انتوا لاحظوا احنا لما اعطيناكوا
+
+204
+00:16:47,920 --> 00:16:52,080
+المثال هنا احنا المثال كان عندنا mispricing فبصير
+
+205
+00:16:52,080 --> 00:16:57,520
+تغير في ال return و ال risk بناء على ال mispricing
+
+206
+00:16:57,520 --> 00:17:00,560
+ناخد ال active management اللي هي عكسهم تماما
+
+207
+00:17:00,560 --> 00:17:09,370
+active managers they only invest on mispricingand
+
+208
+00:17:09,370 --> 00:17:13,030
+they rebalance their portfolios based on the
+
+209
+00:17:13,030 --> 00:17:18,810
+changes in the efficient markets يعني هم اللي
+
+210
+00:17:18,810 --> 00:17:23,750
+نفترض بدوا في A و B و Cلنفترض أقبضوا ب A و B و C
+
+211
+00:17:23,750 --> 00:17:27,610
+عندهم قناعة أن A لن تبقى عقدها و مخاطرها زي ما هي
+
+212
+00:17:27,610 --> 00:17:31,290
+و B نفس الشغله و C نفس الشغله لن يبدأ في
+
+213
+00:17:31,290 --> 00:17:35,770
+mispricing سنكتشف لكم اكتبوا لماذا يحدث الكلام هذا
+
+214
+00:17:35,770 --> 00:17:40,050
+يعني عندكوا اسألوني لماذا يحدث أن A لا تبقى ال
+
+215
+00:17:40,050 --> 00:17:47,150
+risk والrecent لها و نفسه ناخد مثال A A يحدث فيها
+
+216
+00:17:47,150 --> 00:17:53,150
+mispricing what it means mispricingسوق تسعير okay
+
+217
+00:17:53,150 --> 00:17:56,310
+أكثر
+
+218
+00:17:56,310 --> 00:17:59,490
+علمية يعني سوق تسعير what it means سوق تسعير what
+
+219
+00:17:59,490 --> 00:18:04,810
+it means mispricing قرأته
+
+220
+00:18:04,810 --> 00:18:14,070
+أكيد بال .. كيف أنا بتعرف أن هذا السهم أو هذا ال
+
+221
+00:18:14,070 --> 00:18:18,840
+.. هو سعر غير حقيقي أعطيكم مثاللو أجينا احنا هان
+
+222
+00:18:18,840 --> 00:18:22,100
+في غزة روحنا ساعدنا سعر البندورة بكم؟ هكون ال 5
+
+223
+00:18:22,100 --> 00:18:25,500
+كيلو بمية روحنا على خان يونس كم سعر البندورة؟ هكون
+
+224
+00:18:25,500 --> 00:18:29,380
+7 كيلو بمية في miss pricing ولا لأ؟ في miss
+
+225
+00:18:29,380 --> 00:18:33,380
+pricing فإيش راح يسويوا تجار غزة؟ هياخدوا التجار
+
+226
+00:18:33,380 --> 00:18:36,620
+خان يونس هيجيبوا البندورة من خان يونس ويبقوا بها
+
+227
+00:18:36,620 --> 00:18:41,280
+في غزة قبل ما يصير توازن بالسعر طب إذا احنا عرفنا
+
+228
+00:18:41,280 --> 00:18:45,320
+miss pricing السعر الحقيقي هو السعر الموجود في خان
+
+229
+00:18:45,320 --> 00:18:47,580
+يونس مثلا، تمام؟
+
+230
+00:18:55,020 --> 00:19:01,100
+السعر الحقيقي هو بيكون ممثل على خط السوق لكن مرات
+
+231
+00:19:01,100 --> 00:19:05,440
+انه ممكن السعر الحقيقي ينزل زي ما انتوا شايفين و
+
+232
+00:19:05,440 --> 00:19:14,230
+ممكن يطلع لفوق حسبيعني السعر الحقيقي للسهم ممكن is
+
+233
+00:19:14,230 --> 00:19:23,570
+moving around the actual price ناخد مثلًا لسهم
+
+234
+00:19:23,570 --> 00:19:33,990
+من الأسهم مثلًا ياهو أو IBM طلع لو جينا احنا هذا
+
+235
+00:19:33,990 --> 00:19:42,700
+ال time T و هذا ال priceOkay طبعا نمشي هيك ال time
+
+236
+00:19:42,700 --> 00:19:47,060
+بزيد و نطلع هيك ال price بزيد لو جينا احنا أخدنا
+
+237
+00:19:47,060 --> 00:19:54,120
+هيك تشوفوهم هذه المنحنيات بالأسواق المالية صح؟ طيب
+
+238
+00:19:54,120 --> 00:20:01,380
+هذا ال price ال price fluctuated طب where is the
+
+239
+00:20:01,380 --> 00:20:06,580
+actual price؟ وين هو ال actual price؟وين السعر
+
+240
+00:20:06,580 --> 00:20:10,140
+الحقيقي لو اجينا احنا حكينا النقطة هذه وين ال
+
+241
+00:20:10,140 --> 00:20:14,300
+actually price اه
+
+242
+00:20:14,300 --> 00:20:17,840
+انساعدكم هو صعب شوية عليكم انساعدكم ال actually
+
+243
+00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:25,820
+price هو السعر هذا هو ال actually price دائما
+
+244
+00:20:25,820 --> 00:20:28,920
+السعر ال .. السعر الموجود في السوق هو سعر
+
+245
+00:20:28,920 --> 00:20:33,820
+fluctuated around the actual priceهو سعر بالذبذب
+
+246
+00:20:33,820 --> 00:20:37,360
+حوالين السعر الحقيقي ناخد النقطة هذه، طلع النقطة
+
+247
+00:20:37,360 --> 00:20:41,080
+هذه النقطة هذه إيش صار فيها؟ هذه السعر الحقيقي،
+
+248
+00:20:41,080 --> 00:20:44,440
+هذه overpriced فالناس بيبقوا يبيعوا يبيعوا لما
+
+249
+00:20:44,440 --> 00:20:49,180
+ينزل هنابعدين بيصير شغلات أخرى بنزل السعر الناس
+
+250
+00:20:49,180 --> 00:20:51,740
+بيبدوا يشتريه و بيبدأ يطلع يطلع و بعدين و هكذا
+
+251
+00:20:51,740 --> 00:20:55,960
+شوفتوا كيف is fluctuated around the actual price
+
+252
+00:20:55,960 --> 00:21:00,600
+يعني هذا هو السعر الحقيقي و هذا السعر الموجود في
+
+253
+00:21:00,600 --> 00:21:06,920
+السوق عشان هيك من المستحيل أنه نجد السعر الحقيقي
+
+254
+00:21:06,920 --> 00:21:13,120
+يساوي السعر السوقيإذا ال actual price ما بيسويش ال
+
+255
+00:21:13,120 --> 00:21:15,420
+market price اللي بتشوفوه السعر اللي موجود في
+
+256
+00:21:15,420 --> 00:21:23,280
+السوق الآن is not equal the actual price طبعا من
+
+257
+00:21:23,280 --> 00:21:25,580
+ناحية from financial perspective من وجهة نظر
+
+258
+00:21:25,580 --> 00:21:30,540
+الماليين هم الماليين ضرر عندهم معادلات تحسب ال
+
+259
+00:21:30,540 --> 00:21:34,760
+actual price بيقدروا يحسبوا ال actual price و ال
+
+260
+00:21:34,760 --> 00:21:38,940
+market price معروف فالفرق بين هذا و بين هذا إيش
+
+261
+00:21:38,940 --> 00:21:46,210
+بتسميهيلا اشوف الفرق بين هذا ال market price و هذا
+
+262
+00:21:46,210 --> 00:21:53,930
+ايش بنسميه الفرق هذا هو ال mispricing هو هذا ال
+
+263
+00:21:53,930 --> 00:21:59,110
+mispricing شوفتوا
+
+264
+00:21:59,110 --> 00:22:03,970
+كيف؟ يوم مرة نكبر الصورة اكتر
+
+265
+00:22:10,900 --> 00:22:18,140
+طيب نيجي ناخد ال T ال T time نفترض ناخد مثلا
+
+266
+00:22:18,140 --> 00:22:22,540
+الأيام .. الأيام الأسبوع و هذا ال price .. الأسعار
+
+267
+00:22:22,540 --> 00:22:28,260
+.. روحنا أخدنا ال chart .. أخدنا ال chartيعني رسم
+
+268
+00:22:28,260 --> 00:22:35,180
+بياني لسلوك سعر السوق بيجي هاي سعر مش هيك بتشوفوا
+
+269
+00:22:35,180 --> 00:22:39,080
+الأسعار بتكون طيب هلأ بدأنا في ال actual price
+
+270
+00:22:39,080 --> 00:22:42,680
+حكينا اللي بتاعون ال finance بيستطيعوا يحددوا وين
+
+271
+00:22:42,680 --> 00:22:45,940
+هو ال actual price لنفترض أنه احنا حددنا ال actual
+
+272
+00:22:45,940 --> 00:22:50,000
+price this is the actual price هذا الخط إيش بنسميه
+
+273
+00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:56,230
+actual priceطب و هذا الخط إيش اسمه؟ لزرق market
+
+274
+00:22:56,230 --> 00:23:00,870
+price طيب إذا هذا ال actually price and this is
+
+275
+00:23:00,870 --> 00:23:07,410
+the market price فاهمين لللحظة هذه؟ ناخد احنا ..
+
+276
+00:23:07,410 --> 00:23:10,670
+ناخد أي نقطة .. أي نقطة على السوق، النقطة هذه و لا
+
+277
+00:23:10,670 --> 00:23:16,170
+تكن أي نقطةهذه ايش مالها النقطة؟ under priced ولا
+
+278
+00:23:16,170 --> 00:23:20,010
+over priced؟ under priced ليش؟ لإن أقل من ال
+
+279
+00:23:20,010 --> 00:23:23,530
+actual price طب إيش رح يصير؟ الناس هتروح تشتري،
+
+280
+00:23:23,530 --> 00:23:29,590
+صح؟ طيب في حد مع كرة؟ كرة؟ أي كرة؟ لما احنا نمسك
+
+281
+00:23:29,590 --> 00:23:33,470
+الكرة و نضربها على ال .. على الأرض، إيش بيصير في
+
+282
+00:23:33,470 --> 00:23:38,060
+الكرة؟لأن المستثمرين نفسهم مابيعرفوش بالظبط where
+
+283
+00:23:38,060 --> 00:23:41,620
+is the actual price إذا هم عارفين بالظبط where is
+
+284
+00:23:41,620 --> 00:23:45,160
+the actual price كان الكرة اللي بنضربها بتظلها
+
+285
+00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:48,910
+واقفة عند نقطة محددة وهذا أشي مستحيلbecause there
+
+286
+00:23:48,910 --> 00:23:52,350
+is different in their expectations لأن ممكن أنت
+
+287
+00:23:52,350 --> 00:23:57,010
+تقول انا ال actual price هان واحد تاني يقول لأ هان
+
+288
+00:23:57,010 --> 00:24:00,670
+واحد تاري تقول لأ وبالتالي في اختلاف على ال actual
+
+289
+00:24:00,670 --> 00:24:04,510
+price زي الفكرة لما احنا نضرب الكورة على الأرض
+
+290
+00:24:04,510 --> 00:24:08,090
+وبالتالي الكورة بتبدأ تطلع وتنزل بطريقة معينة لما
+
+291
+00:24:08,090 --> 00:24:12,410
+يصير فيها سكون وعكس لما تضرب كهنا مرة وبالتالي
+
+292
+00:24:12,410 --> 00:24:18,530
+بتاخد ملحانة أخر okay فاللي بيصير عندناكانت هان
+
+293
+00:24:18,530 --> 00:24:23,250
+راحوا الناس بيشتريوا و يشتريوا و يشتريوا عند لحظة
+
+294
+00:24:23,250 --> 00:24:27,690
+معينة took the actual price صار في equal premium
+
+295
+00:24:27,690 --> 00:24:31,310
+بس ناس بيحكوا لأ يمكن أعلى من هيك و بضلهم يشتريوا
+
+296
+00:24:31,310 --> 00:24:36,610
+و وصلوا لهذا الحد عند هذا الحد إيش راح يصير؟ صار
+
+297
+00:24:36,610 --> 00:24:40,840
+over price فالناس بروحوا بيهاش؟بروحوا ببيعوا و
+
+298
+00:24:40,840 --> 00:24:42,920
+هكذا this is the story of the financial market و
+
+299
+00:24:42,920 --> 00:24:46,260
+هذه قصة السوق المالي طب شو اللي بيخلي الاشي يطلع و
+
+300
+00:24:46,260 --> 00:24:49,240
+ينزل بها الطريقة هذه the difference in investor
+
+301
+00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:56,000
+expectations difference in investors expectations
+
+302
+00:24:56,000 --> 00:24:58,260
+اختلافات توقعات المستثمرين بالظبط اختلافات
+
+303
+00:24:58,260 --> 00:25:02,620
+التوقعات المستثمرين لو كنا مع بعض احنا هنا ناخد
+
+304
+00:25:02,620 --> 00:25:06,200
+مثال بسيط على ال efficient markets لو احنا حكينا
+
+305
+00:25:06,200 --> 00:25:06,840
+بالتل
+
+306
+00:25:09,720 --> 00:25:18,440
+7.6 ثمنه الآن بالتل مثلا 4.5 okay ناخد
+
+307
+00:25:18,440 --> 00:25:23,720
+شوفوا احنا هاي أخدنا chart روح انتوا اليوم في
+
+308
+00:25:23,720 --> 00:25:27,720
+البيت روح على bse.com و نزلوا ال chart تبع بالتل
+
+309
+00:25:27,720 --> 00:25:33,680
+أخدنا ال chart بهالطريقة هذه و احنا هذا سعر 4.70
+
+310
+00:25:33,680 --> 00:25:38,980
+سعر بالتل انا بسألكوا سؤال okay سؤال بسيط
+
+311
+00:25:42,260 --> 00:25:46,160
+أيش رأيكم؟ انتوا شايفين ال trend هذا اسمه trend
+
+312
+00:25:46,160 --> 00:25:53,320
+التوجه هل السعر هيرتفع ولا سينخفض طيب ممكن تكتبوا
+
+313
+00:25:53,320 --> 00:25:57,160
+برقة هيك لحالكم اكتبوا توقعاتكم كل واحدة بدون ما
+
+314
+00:25:57,160 --> 00:25:59,480
+تتطلع على جنبها انتوا اعتبروا حالكم مستثمرين
+
+315
+00:25:59,480 --> 00:26:04,860
+اعتبروا حالكم ايهاش؟ مستثمرين وهي عندكم ال paletel
+
+316
+00:26:04,860 --> 00:26:08,120
+هي الآن سعرها 4.7 طيب
+
+317
+00:26:10,020 --> 00:26:13,320
+بعد الساعة عشرة هبفتح سوق .. يعني دلوقتي هو فاتح
+
+318
+00:26:13,320 --> 00:26:18,400
+سوق فلسطين طبعا طلعتوا على السوق شوفتوا السوق شو
+
+319
+00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:22,180
+.. شو بيصير فيه و بتسألي بدكوا أنتوا يا تشتريوا يا
+
+320
+00:26:22,180 --> 00:26:27,160
+تبيعوا اكتبوا .. اكتبوا بورقة هيك السعر اللي أنتوا
+
+321
+00:26:27,160 --> 00:26:34,160
+تتوقعوا لبالته ما .. ما تحكيش اكتبوا السعر بس بس
+
+322
+00:26:34,160 --> 00:26:38,490
+اكتبوا السعر بورقة صغيرة هيك و أعطينيهابدو ورقة
+
+323
+00:26:38,490 --> 00:26:45,750
+صغيرة بس هيك ورقة صغيرة يعني بس ورقة صغيرة بس بس
+
+324
+00:26:45,750 --> 00:26:50,350
+بس
+
+325
+00:26:50,350 --> 00:26:53,850
+بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس
+
+326
+00:26:53,850 --> 00:26:53,850
+بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس
+
+327
+00:26:53,850 --> 00:26:54,490
+بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس
+
+328
+00:26:54,490 --> 00:26:55,730
+بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس
+
+329
+00:26:55,730 --> 00:26:55,770
+بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس
+
+330
+00:26:55,770 --> 00:27:02,540
+بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بس بسلأ كمان ساعة او يعني
+
+331
+00:27:02,540 --> 00:27:06,180
+نحكي .. توقع .. اذا بدأت تشري ع كام بتشري بقى تلعب
+
+332
+00:27:06,180 --> 00:27:10,780
+.. اربعة .. اربعة فاصلة سبعة لأ ساعة .. لأ ساعة
+
+333
+00:27:10,780 --> 00:27:17,600
+عشرة و نص يعني ايه للسوق فاتح نص ساعة okay انت حسب
+
+334
+00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:20,040
+انت رؤيتك مالكيش دخل في اللي جانبك انت لما تروح
+
+335
+00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:25,020
+تشتري بالسوق اه your expectations determine the
+
+336
+00:27:25,020 --> 00:27:33,530
+price اه مجموعة توقعاتكم هو بحدد السعريلا بسرعة يا
+
+337
+00:27:33,530 --> 00:27:40,930
+عم كلها ورقة صغيرة ماشي الحال يلا بسرعة اه اعطيني
+
+338
+00:27:40,930 --> 00:27:44,690
+اعطيني واحدة من البنات بتجمع من هذا المجموعة يعني
+
+339
+00:27:44,690 --> 00:27:47,530
+انا كمان دقيقة واحدة من البنات بتجمع واحدة من
+
+340
+00:27:47,530 --> 00:27:50,630
+البنات بتجمع من هذا المجموعة واحدة من البنات بتجمع
+
+341
+00:27:50,630 --> 00:27:56,730
+من هذا .. تجمع من البنات يعني معاكم دقيقتين عشان
+
+342
+00:27:56,730 --> 00:28:02,350
+اورجيكم كيف في السوق المالييتم تحديد الأسعار؟ جمع
+
+343
+00:28:02,350 --> 00:28:06,650
+المدبنة طبعا؟ غالبك؟
+
+344
+00:28:06,650 --> 00:28:18,950
+تحولوش
+
+345
+00:28:18,950 --> 00:28:23,930
+تطلع .. ممكن المجموعات تشتغل مع بعض و تقرر بس كويس
+
+346
+00:28:23,930 --> 00:28:28,670
+أنه تشتغلوا individuallyإذا اشتغلتوا مجموعات هى
+
+347
+00:28:28,670 --> 00:28:32,650
+بيسموها بال .. بال investment herding theory نظرية
+
+348
+00:28:32,650 --> 00:28:36,210
+ال .. ال herding عارفينش معنى ال herding نظرية
+
+349
+00:28:36,210 --> 00:28:40,210
+القطيع يعني الطيور لما بتطير بتطير مع بعض وبالتالي
+
+350
+00:28:40,210 --> 00:28:44,810
+مجموعات بتحدد الأسعار تمام هك؟ طيب واحدة من البنات
+
+351
+00:28:44,810 --> 00:28:50,550
+بس تيجي هان واحدة تعالى يا إيمان نسمع بس افتح ال
+
+352
+00:28:50,550 --> 00:28:55,550
+.. الأوراق واعطيني بس هيك الأسعار
+
+353
+00:29:00,490 --> 00:29:13,470
+لو جاء 4 يعني حكينا هان 4.7 4.8 4.9 5 4.6 4.5 okay
+
+354
+00:29:13,470 --> 00:29:24,330
+4.4 نشوف كيف الأسعار هتصير اعطيني ناخد أول واحدة 4
+
+355
+00:29:24,330 --> 00:29:28,610
+.7 4.9 5
+
+356
+00:29:32,090 --> 00:29:37,370
+خمسة فاصلة تسعة خمسة فاصلة سبعة خمسة فاصلة خمسة
+
+357
+00:29:37,370 --> 00:29:46,090
+ستة فاصلة خمسة ستة فاصلة سبعة ستة فاصلة سبعة لأ
+
+358
+00:29:46,090 --> 00:29:50,610
+هان هان نفس الشيء okay okay اربعة فاصلة تلاتة
+
+359
+00:29:50,610 --> 00:29:54,770
+اربعة فاصلة تلاتة انتبه هان هاي ايش صار اربعة
+
+360
+00:29:54,770 --> 00:30:00,450
+فاصلة تلاتة ستة فاصلة اربعة ستة فاصلة اربعةاربعة
+
+361
+00:30:00,450 --> 00:30:04,330
+فاصلة خمسة اربعة
+
+362
+00:30:04,330 --> 00:30:08,770
+فاصلة تسعة اربعة فاصلة تسعة اربعة فاصلة سبعة اربعة
+
+363
+00:30:08,770 --> 00:30:16,190
+فاصلة سبعة خمسة فاصلة سبعة خمسة فاصلة سبعة خمسة
+
+364
+00:30:16,190 --> 00:30:21,490
+خمسة طيب لو كف .. لو اكتفنا بهذا العدد ايش رأيكم؟
+
+365
+00:30:21,490 --> 00:30:25,410
+شو راح .. راح يصير في السعر؟ هيرتفع هيرتفع ليش؟
+
+366
+00:30:25,410 --> 00:30:29,970
+لأن ال expectations تبع الماس الموجودةأعلى بكتير،
+
+367
+00:30:29,970 --> 00:30:33,230
+بس هذا شو .. شو .. شو اللي صار؟ صار إنه في ناس
+
+368
+00:30:33,230 --> 00:30:36,610
+عندهم ال .. في over expectations over .. over
+
+369
+00:30:36,610 --> 00:30:40,050
+optimistic صار عندهم، فإيش راح يصير في السوق؟
+
+370
+00:30:40,050 --> 00:30:43,730
+السوق بالظبط أشهد زي ما إحنا ضربنا الكرة، إحنا
+
+371
+00:30:43,730 --> 00:30:49,550
+عندنا .. تبعوا علي، عندنا السئر لو إحنا حسبنا
+
+372
+00:30:49,550 --> 00:30:54,990
+المنطقة هذه، كدهش المتوسط تبعها، مثل المتوسط ممكن
+
+373
+00:30:54,990 --> 00:31:02,450
+يكون 4.9يعني هذه 4.9 هذا ال ceiling اللي بيسموه ال
+
+374
+00:31:02,450 --> 00:31:07,110
+threshold مرة معاكي كلمة threshold ال threshold هي
+
+375
+00:31:07,110 --> 00:31:12,210
+السقف لما نضرب الكورة لازم يخبط فيه في السقف هذا
+
+376
+00:31:12,210 --> 00:31:15,790
+هو أعلى سقف ممكن نصل إليه طيب اللي بيصير احنا
+
+377
+00:31:15,790 --> 00:31:20,370
+threshold هو 4.9 سعر الحقيقي المفروض لكن إيهش اللي
+
+378
+00:31:20,370 --> 00:31:25,170
+بيصيرالسعر ضرب في السعر الحقيقي و بدأ يرتح شوي شوي
+
+379
+00:31:25,170 --> 00:31:28,970
+شوي و هيرجع في المرة التانية هيبدأ ينزل okay
+
+380
+00:31:28,970 --> 00:31:33,510
+فالسعر is rounding حوالين الأربعة فاصلة تسعة but
+
+381
+00:31:33,510 --> 00:31:37,630
+nobody knows ولا واحد مننا بيعرف يعني ولا واحد
+
+382
+00:31:37,630 --> 00:31:41,110
+يعني مافيش حد اتفق بالظبط مية فالمية أن السعر
+
+383
+00:31:41,110 --> 00:31:47,750
+أربعة فاصلة تسعة ماحدش طبعافمين اللي بحدد السعر في
+
+384
+00:31:47,750 --> 00:31:51,670
+السوق هم ال customers or investors expectations طب
+
+385
+00:31:51,670 --> 00:31:55,970
+السؤال اللي انا بدي نسألكوا ياه كمان مرة لو انا
+
+386
+00:31:55,970 --> 00:31:59,130
+اعطيتكوا معلومات شوفوا هل ال efficient markets لو
+
+387
+00:31:59,130 --> 00:32:03,450
+انا انتوا intentionally حاكيتلكم لان اعملوا كلام
+
+388
+00:32:03,450 --> 00:32:11,250
+هذا لان طب لو انا عملتلكوا شغلتلكم okay هاي سعر
+
+389
+00:32:11,250 --> 00:32:18,850
+السوق وهي بيانات الشركةاتوقعوا لي كمان مرة حسب
+
+390
+00:32:18,850 --> 00:32:23,910
+البيانات فالتوقع هيختلف التوقع هيصير أقرب لل
+
+391
+00:32:23,910 --> 00:32:30,670
+actual price طيب فهمنا كيف؟ طب إذا كنا أنا أعطيكم
+
+392
+00:32:30,670 --> 00:32:35,050
+public information يعني أنتوا في الحالة الأولى
+
+393
+00:32:35,050 --> 00:32:39,050
+استخدمتوا معلوماتكم العادية اللي بتقرؤوها بالأخبار
+
+394
+00:32:39,050 --> 00:32:43,050
+اللي في ال media و روحتوا قررتوا السعر طب لو أنا
+
+395
+00:32:43,050 --> 00:32:47,570
+أعطيتكم private informationإذا في عندنا نوعين في
+
+396
+00:32:47,570 --> 00:32:51,330
+عندنا public information و في عندنا private
+
+397
+00:32:51,330 --> 00:32:54,590
+information السؤال اللي أنا بدأ أسأله ال private
+
+398
+00:32:54,590 --> 00:32:57,050
+information is the private information available
+
+399
+00:32:57,050 --> 00:33:02,150
+for everyone؟ no ال
+
+400
+00:33:02,150 --> 00:33:04,910
+private information is limited to the insiders
+
+401
+00:33:04,910 --> 00:33:10,850
+limited لمن؟ لل insiders مين هم ال insiders؟مش
+
+402
+00:33:10,850 --> 00:33:15,250
+اللي بيشتغلوه مش اي واحد في الشركة هم الناس they
+
+403
+00:33:15,250 --> 00:33:19,450
+hold the private information اللي عندهم المعلومات
+
+404
+00:33:19,450 --> 00:33:23,410
+الداخلية وبالتالي كل ما يكون فيه ان ال private
+
+405
+00:33:23,410 --> 00:33:28,690
+information is available okay هنصل ل ال pricing ل
+
+406
+00:33:28,690 --> 00:33:36,470
+ال actual price لل actual price طيب خلينا نشوف
+
+407
+00:33:36,470 --> 00:33:42,090
+الفرق بينإذا كانت المعلومات متوفرة وإذا كانت
+
+408
+00:33:42,090 --> 00:33:46,710
+المعلومات غير متوفرة بينا ناخد two charts ال chart
+
+409
+00:33:46,710 --> 00:33:52,610
+في availability for information وال chart في no
+
+410
+00:33:52,610 --> 00:33:54,610
+availability for information زي ما احنا طوينا
+
+411
+00:33:54,610 --> 00:33:58,090
+ساولا معاكم قلنا لكوا اتفضلوا اعطوني سعر وماعندكم
+
+412
+00:33:58,090 --> 00:34:01,250
+مش معلومات طب لو احنا عكسنا اعطاناكم معلومات وقلنا
+
+413
+00:34:01,250 --> 00:34:04,450
+لكم اعملوا predictions للسعر هتشوف ال two cases
+
+414
+00:34:04,450 --> 00:34:05,490
+كيف بيختلفوا عن بعض
+
+415
+00:34:18,730 --> 00:34:27,470
+طبعا هاي ال T و هاي ال price ناخد هذا
+
+416
+00:34:27,470 --> 00:34:36,410
+سوق هذا يهو شركة يهو و ناخد شركة أخرى موجودة مثلا
+
+417
+00:34:36,410 --> 00:34:44,050
+بالسعودية مثلا شركة إعمار أو شركة في دبي
+
+418
+00:34:52,550 --> 00:34:57,510
+ايش اللي بيصير شوفوا
+
+419
+00:34:57,510 --> 00:35:01,970
+الفرق لو اجينا احنا بنعمل ال actual price هان و
+
+420
+00:35:01,970 --> 00:35:11,110
+بناخد ال actual price هان ال actual price زي
+
+421
+00:35:11,110 --> 00:35:16,110
+ما انتوا شايفين هذا هو ال actual price و لو اجينا
+
+422
+00:35:16,110 --> 00:35:20,170
+احدنا ال actual price هان هي شركة Yahoo و شركة
+
+423
+00:35:20,170 --> 00:35:33,380
+اعمارإيش الفرق بيناتهم؟ فضل بالظبط
+
+424
+00:35:33,380 --> 00:35:36,700
+there is no .. يعني there is a little mispricing
+
+425
+00:35:36,700 --> 00:35:40,980
+بيكون ال mispricing بسيط طلع على شركة اما عارفش
+
+426
+00:35:40,980 --> 00:35:44,620
+اللي بيصير ال
+
+427
+00:35:44,620 --> 00:35:50,500
+mispricing اللي هي الفرق بين هذه و هذهعالية ال
+
+428
+00:35:50,500 --> 00:35:53,660
+variance لو احنا نحسب بلغة الإحصال variance
+
+429
+00:35:53,660 --> 00:35:59,360
+التباين عالي لكن لو أجينا احنا هان التباين ال
+
+430
+00:35:59,360 --> 00:36:05,940
+variance أو sigma قليلة كتير و هذا الفرق بين أسواق
+
+431
+00:36:05,940 --> 00:36:10,080
+شركة فيها كفاءة في التسعير و شركة كفائتها أقل في
+
+432
+00:36:10,080 --> 00:36:14,380
+التسعيرال efficient markets okay so the efficient
+
+433
+00:36:14,380 --> 00:36:22,520
+markets في السوق المالي بيكون السعر ال market
+
+434
+00:36:22,520 --> 00:36:29,380
+price is closer to the actual price but in the
+
+435
+00:36:29,380 --> 00:36:35,000
+semi strong efficient markets orweak markets بيكون
+
+436
+00:36:35,000 --> 00:36:41,860
+the actual price is far away from the market price
+
+437
+00:36:41,860 --> 00:36:49,080
+تمام واضح الكلام هذا نعيد كلام مرة لو احنا عندنا
+
+438
+00:36:49,080 --> 00:36:52,800
+سوقين السوق فيه كفاءة مالية و السوق مافيش فيه
+
+439
+00:36:52,800 --> 00:36:57,380
+كفاءة مالية فالسوق اللي فيه كفاءة مالية بيكون سعر
+
+440
+00:36:57,380 --> 00:37:03,180
+السوق قريب من ال actual price السعر الحقيقيبيكون
+
+441
+00:37:03,180 --> 00:37:10,020
+فيه كفاءة وإذا السوق المالي الغير كفوء بيكون السعر
+
+442
+00:37:10,020 --> 00:37:13,980
+السوق بعيد كتير عن .. إذا احنا لما بنختبر كفاءة
+
+443
+00:37:13,980 --> 00:37:18,020
+سوق سهل ما تصير لما بنختبر أن هذا .. نحكي أن هذا
+
+444
+00:37:18,020 --> 00:37:26,260
+السوق مالي كفوء ولا غير كفوء هاي
+
+445
+00:37:26,260 --> 00:37:29,960
+بدأت جاوبك إذا كانش .. إذا كان ال variance قليل
+
+446
+00:37:30,630 --> 00:37:34,170
+عادي روح يجيب البيانات وحطيها في ال Excel و
+
+447
+00:37:34,170 --> 00:37:36,590
+calculate variance و calculate sigma هتطلع عندك
+
+448
+00:37:36,590 --> 00:37:43,590
+كفاءة السوق okay عندك خبرة في ال Excel؟ بتيجي
+
+449
+00:37:43,590 --> 00:37:48,770
+بتاخدي حسوب و تحليل مالي بتصير عندك خبرة okay
+
+450
+00:37:48,770 --> 00:37:58,230
+okay
+
+451
+00:37:58,230 --> 00:38:07,250
+في حد عندك سؤال؟أه اتفضلي الزمن
+
+452
+00:38:07,250 --> 00:38:14,050
+مو انت بتحدي observations حسب الزمن هذا .. هذا ال
+
+453
+00:38:14,050 --> 00:38:21,310
+charts زمني لفترات زمنية و بترقم فيها طيب خليني
+
+454
+00:38:21,310 --> 00:38:27,770
+اكمل واضحة للفكرة هذه اه؟ في حد عنده سؤال is
+
+455
+00:38:27,770 --> 00:38:29,030
+unclear اه؟
+
+456
+00:38:32,550 --> 00:38:40,790
+هلا ممتازين رضى الله ان شاء الله اذا احنا حكينا عن
+
+457
+00:38:40,790 --> 00:38:44,170
+ال active management حكينا عن ال mis pricing و
+
+458
+00:38:44,170 --> 00:38:47,630
+timing the markets اللي انت سألتي timing the
+
+459
+00:38:47,630 --> 00:38:51,310
+markets يعني احنا بندخل في السوق لما نشعر انه
+
+460
+00:38:51,310 --> 00:38:56,410
+there is mis pricing okay طيب و ال passive
+
+461
+00:38:56,410 --> 00:39:01,030
+management حكيناها okay دي players مين ال players
+
+462
+00:39:01,030 --> 00:39:04,950
+اللي في السوق المالي؟مين هم اللاعبين في الأسواق
+
+463
+00:39:04,950 --> 00:39:10,230
+المالية؟
+
+464
+00:39:10,230 --> 00:39:16,210
+اللاعبين في الأسواق المالية business firms شركات
+
+465
+00:39:16,210 --> 00:39:22,410
+بيكونوا net borrowers هم مقترضين بدهم يقترضوا وعنا
+
+466
+00:39:22,410 --> 00:39:26,890
+ال households net savers هم المداخرينوال
+
+467
+00:39:26,890 --> 00:39:30,570
+governments الحكومة الحكومة هي بتكون net borrowers
+
+468
+00:39:30,570 --> 00:39:33,570
+اما net savers يعني ممكن تكون على الجانب هذا وممكن
+
+469
+00:39:33,570 --> 00:39:42,730
+تكون جانب هذا باختصار انتبهوا
+
+470
+00:39:42,730 --> 00:39:49,810
+معايا ايه علاقة بالاقتصاد نربط
+
+471
+00:39:49,810 --> 00:39:53,250
+الموضوع كله في بعض في عندي انا ال real estate real
+
+472
+00:39:53,250 --> 00:39:55,890
+asset مظبوط
+
+473
+00:39:57,410 --> 00:40:01,850
+اش حكينا ال real asset؟ produce goods, services
+
+474
+00:40:01,850 --> 00:40:08,230
+and income ايه بتعطيني income؟ ال income بروح
+
+475
+00:40:08,230 --> 00:40:14,010
+بنعمل consumption استهلاك و اللي بزيد بنعمل ايه؟
+
+476
+00:40:14,010 --> 00:40:21,710
+saving بنعمل ايه؟ saving ف ال saving بروح عند اللي
+
+477
+00:40:21,710 --> 00:40:28,410
+هو ال savers الناس اللي معها الفلوسطيب ال savers
+
+478
+00:40:28,410 --> 00:40:32,690
+بيبحثوا على ناس يعطوهم الأموال اللي لديهم عشان
+
+479
+00:40:32,690 --> 00:40:39,130
+يروحوا يستثمروا فيها فبيعطوها لل firms الشركات أو
+
+480
+00:40:39,130 --> 00:40:44,550
+ال individuals أو
+
+481
+00:40:44,550 --> 00:40:50,190
+الأشخاص okay it
+
+482
+00:40:50,190 --> 00:40:56,170
+meansthe flow of fund ال fund معناها الأموال the
+
+483
+00:40:56,170 --> 00:41:01,770
+flow of fund is moving from surplus أنا بسميه
+
+484
+00:41:01,770 --> 00:41:10,030
+surplus to the deficit يعني
+
+485
+00:41:10,030 --> 00:41:14,440
+surplus للناس اللي معاهم فائض عن حاجتهمto the
+
+486
+00:41:14,440 --> 00:41:17,740
+deficit الناس اللي بيحتاجوا هذه الفلوس الشركات
+
+487
+00:41:17,740 --> 00:41:21,580
+بدها تروح تستثمر وماعندهاش أموال وبالتالي بدها
+
+488
+00:41:21,580 --> 00:41:25,880
+تاخد من الناس اللي عندهم أموال لذا ال funds is
+
+489
+00:41:25,880 --> 00:41:31,240
+moving from the savers to the individuals or firms
+
+490
+00:41:31,240 --> 00:41:35,740
+يعني الناس اللي مع فلوس بتروح تقرد أو بتعطي للناس
+
+491
+00:41:35,740 --> 00:41:40,020
+اللي معهم مش فلوس طيب هدول ايش راح يسووا هدول راح
+
+492
+00:41:40,020 --> 00:41:44,110
+يسووا هيستثمروا في ال real assetsو هتصير عندنا
+
+493
+00:41:44,110 --> 00:41:49,490
+الدورة بهذا الشكل حتيجي ال real asset هتعطي income
+
+494
+00:41:49,490 --> 00:41:53,650
+ال income جزء منه زي ما حكينا المرة السابقة ال
+
+495
+00:41:53,650 --> 00:41:58,150
+consumption و هنسد ال .. هنسد ال savers فلوسهم و
+
+496
+00:41:58,150 --> 00:42:02,810
+القروض تبعتهم okay و هنيجي برضه نروح نقرأ شركات
+
+497
+00:42:02,810 --> 00:42:07,450
+أخرى و هكذا هذه اسمها ال circle of economic اعني
+
+498
+00:42:07,450 --> 00:42:07,890
+كمان مرة
+
+499
+00:42:11,060 --> 00:42:14,120
+نبدأ خاصة من ال real assets ال machines و ال
+
+500
+00:42:14,120 --> 00:42:19,780
+equipments تشتغل okay generate goods and services
+
+501
+00:42:19,780 --> 00:42:23,400
+and
+
+502
+00:42:23,400 --> 00:42:27,840
+income مظبوط هذا شرحناه المرة الفاتة هلأ هذا ال
+
+503
+00:42:27,840 --> 00:42:32,760
+income بيصير معانا فلوس بنروح بنعمل consumption
+
+504
+00:42:32,760 --> 00:42:41,810
+فاكرين و اللي بزيد بنعمله saving صح ال savingاللي
+
+505
+00:42:41,810 --> 00:42:44,870
+هو الناس اللي بيعملوا .. اللي عندهم savers الناس
+
+506
+00:42:44,870 --> 00:42:48,090
+اللي عندهم أموال زائدة عن حاجزتهم هدول بيسميهم
+
+507
+00:42:48,090 --> 00:42:52,070
+surplus ناحية اقتصادية بيسميهم surplus يعني عندهم
+
+508
+00:42:52,070 --> 00:42:57,350
+فائد طيب هدول اللي عندهم فائد بدهم يستثمروا هذا
+
+509
+00:42:57,350 --> 00:43:02,230
+الفائد و يعطوه لناس بحتاجين للاستثمارات فبيعطيهم
+
+510
+00:43:02,230 --> 00:43:07,860
+لل firms للشركاتOkay الشركات بتروح بتعمل expansion
+
+511
+00:43:07,860 --> 00:43:11,820
+expansion يعني توسع بتشتري قلعات جديدة و بتعمل
+
+512
+00:43:11,820 --> 00:43:15,700
+مشاريع و كذا real assets increase in real assets
+
+513
+00:43:15,700 --> 00:43:19,960
+بعدين بيجيب بيعملوا income بعدين بي .. و بتتعليق
+
+514
+00:43:19,960 --> 00:43:24,040
+الدورة بالدور إذا واحدة من هالدورة إذا ال machines
+
+515
+00:43:24,040 --> 00:43:28,880
+weak فشو رح يصير؟ هتوقف الدورة فعشان هيك في الدول
+
+516
+00:43:28,880 --> 00:43:32,440
+الصناعيةفي الدول الصناعية الدول اللي بتعتمد على
+
+517
+00:43:32,440 --> 00:43:37,060
+الصناعة اللي بيصير عندهم انه في ال real estate ال
+
+518
+00:43:37,060 --> 00:43:39,620
+machines بتشتغل بتعطينا income و بدأ الدورة بتدور
+
+519
+00:43:39,620 --> 00:43:45,390
+الدول اللي بدأت تعتمد أقل على الصناعةزي مثلا
+
+520
+00:43:45,390 --> 00:43:48,890
+الأوروبا و ال .. و ال UK و بريطانيا و الدول
+
+521
+00:43:48,890 --> 00:43:52,950
+الأوروبية هذه صاروا يحاولوا جزء من الصناعة تبعتهم
+
+522
+00:43:52,950 --> 00:43:56,510
+للصين و ل .. و لدول آسيا ايش اللي راح يصير عندهم
+
+523
+00:43:56,510 --> 00:44:00,150
+دول الخدمات هتصبح و بالتالي there is no machines و
+
+524
+00:44:00,150 --> 00:44:02,710
+بالتالي ايش هيصير عندهم؟ هيصير عندهم مشكلة و أزمة
+
+525
+00:44:02,710 --> 00:44:07,150
+مالية لأن ال machines is not generating income مين
+
+526
+00:44:07,150 --> 00:44:10,850
+هيصير عندهم ال surplus؟ ال China و الدول الآسية
+
+527
+00:44:12,020 --> 00:44:16,240
+هيصير عندهم ال machines تشتغل و تجيب لهم income و
+
+528
+00:44:16,240 --> 00:44:19,420
+هتجيب لهم goods and services و ال income هيروح عند
+
+529
+00:44:19,420 --> 00:44:22,040
+الناس و يدخروا الفلوس هم يروحوا و يعطوها للشركات و
+
+530
+00:44:22,040 --> 00:44:25,060
+الشركات هتروح تستثمر و يعملوا expansion و and so
+
+531
+00:44:25,060 --> 00:44:30,860
+on هذا ال circle okay يعني شوفوا انتوا شو بيصير في
+
+532
+00:44:30,860 --> 00:44:34,580
+أسبانيا و في إيطاليا و في الدول هذه اللي .. اللي
+
+533
+00:44:34,580 --> 00:44:38,400
+صار في عندها أزمة ماليةلهاد السبب ان ال machines
+
+534
+00:44:38,400 --> 00:44:45,340
+is not working properly بنجح عند هذا الحد اجرى
+
+535
+00:44:45,340 --> 00:44:51,280
+ال mode gauges هتفهميها اللي صار في الأزمة المالية
+
+536
+00:44:51,280 --> 00:44:57,180
+شغل بسيط يعني بدقيقتين خلصت كده اللي هو موضوعنا
+
+537
+00:44:57,180 --> 00:45:00,520
+اللقاء اللي جاي طبعا مش هركز عليه كتير بس يعني
+
+538
+00:45:03,860 --> 00:45:09,360
+التركيز بسيط بس بناء .. بناء على سؤالك انه ليش صار
+
+539
+00:45:09,360 --> 00:45:20,180
+financial crisis financial crisis okay اه الأزمة
+
+540
+00:45:20,180 --> 00:45:24,140
+المالية financial crisis معناها الأزمة المالية طيب
+
+541
+00:45:24,140 --> 00:45:27,500
+الأزمة المالية بدت بسبب شغل اسمه ال housing
+
+542
+00:45:27,500 --> 00:45:35,110
+inflation in housing priceزيادة في أسعار البيوت
+
+543
+00:45:35,110 --> 00:45:39,210
+والمنازل زيادة عن أسعارها الحقيقية هذه موجودة في
+
+544
+00:45:39,210 --> 00:45:48,190
+الصفحة 14 أسعار
+
+545
+00:45:48,190 --> 00:45:51,670
+البيوت ني جي هان طلعوا كيف صارت الأزمة
+
+546
+00:45:57,050 --> 00:45:59,150
+سعر البيوت في الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية و في
+
+547
+00:45:59,150 --> 00:46:04,050
+بريطانيا و في الدول أوروبا سعر البيت هذا البيت
+
+548
+00:46:04,050 --> 00:46:12,510
+okay زي ما تشايفين مثلا سعره seventy thousand
+
+549
+00:46:12,510 --> 00:46:18,770
+dollar سعره الحقيقي بيسموه effective price اللي
+
+550
+00:46:18,770 --> 00:46:26,080
+صار نتيجة زيادة الطلب على ال housingو تسهيلات
+
+551
+00:46:26,080 --> 00:46:29,920
+بالإضافة لتسهيلات الاقتمانية الحكومة و تسهيلات
+
+552
+00:46:29,920 --> 00:46:33,960
+الشركات زاد الطلب على ال housing فال housing صار
+
+553
+00:46:33,960 --> 00:46:37,580
+إذا سعره سبعين ألف صار يرتفع و بوم و بوم مية و
+
+554
+00:46:37,580 --> 00:46:45,080
+أشترين ألف دولار سعر الحقيقي كام؟ سبعين و السعر ال
+
+555
+00:46:45,080 --> 00:46:48,460
+market price مية و أشترين ألف طيب هلأ المستثمرين
+
+556
+00:46:48,460 --> 00:46:52,920
+الناس اللي ال مثلا الأزواج الجديدة راحت تشتري بيت
+
+557
+00:46:52,920 --> 00:46:57,400
+دفعت كام مية و أشترين ألف؟و سأله الحقيقه كام؟ سبع
+
+558
+00:46:57,400 --> 00:47:03,140
+ألف طيب مين الكفانة للموضوع الحكومة؟ هدول لو فكروا
+
+559
+00:47:03,140 --> 00:47:07,840
+يبيعوا ال ..
+
+560
+00:47:07,840 --> 00:47:15,260
+ال حكومة
+
+561
+00:47:15,260 --> 00:47:20,530
+بتضمن يعني بتعمل جارنتية على القرضيعني ال
+
+562
+00:47:20,530 --> 00:47:24,070
+collateral يعني مش زي احنا هنا بثقافتنا مثلا بس
+
+563
+00:47:24,070 --> 00:47:27,710
+خلّي .. إيش اسمك أنت؟ ماي .. ماي مش زي إحنا هتروح
+
+564
+00:47:27,710 --> 00:47:30,030
+على ال bank يحكولك أعطيني اتنين كفلة هذا الكلام
+
+565
+00:47:30,030 --> 00:47:33,410
+تقريبا مش موجود عندهم، إيش اللي بيصير؟ لأن هدول
+
+566
+00:47:33,410 --> 00:47:38,730
+أزواج شابة، تمام؟ ففيش مين بيكفلهم؟ بيكفلهم
+
+567
+00:47:38,730 --> 00:47:43,030
+الحكومة يعني في حال أنه صار في default يعني
+
+568
+00:47:43,030 --> 00:47:46,940
+ماقدروش يدفعوا، مين اللي بيدفع عنهم؟الحكومة طيب
+
+569
+00:47:46,940 --> 00:47:50,660
+هلأ السعر مية و عشرين ألف لو هدول الأزواج فكروا
+
+570
+00:47:50,660 --> 00:47:55,220
+بلي ببيعوا ببيعوا ال house تبعهم بكم هيبيعوه؟
+
+571
+00:47:55,220 --> 00:47:58,440
+سبعين دولة هيبيعوه لإنه صار في drop في اللي
+
+572
+00:47:58,440 --> 00:48:01,560
+هيبيعوه بسبعين ألف طب ال خمسين ألف هذه خسارة لهم
+
+573
+00:48:01,560 --> 00:48:06,460
+مظبوط ولا لأ؟ وبالتالي صاروا إيش يسووا هدول؟ إي
+
+574
+00:48:06,460 --> 00:48:07,840
+بطلوا يدفعوا الفلوس تبعتهم
+
+575
+00:48:10,940 --> 00:48:14,460
+لأنه صار في over valued لل housing صار أسعار مائة
+
+576
+00:48:14,460 --> 00:48:17,560
+و عشرين ألف و هو سعره الحقيقي سبعين ألف و بالتالي
+
+577
+00:48:17,560 --> 00:48:22,560
+صاروا يخفضوا الدفعهم و المشاكل في أقلية الدفاع
+
+578
+00:48:22,560 --> 00:48:26,440
+فمين بيضغط الموضوع ال governments طب ال
+
+579
+00:48:26,440 --> 00:48:30,420
+governments شو هتسوي هتدفع هتبدأ تغطي ال block ال
+
+580
+00:48:30,420 --> 00:48:35,120
+government مفترض عندها عندها خمسة مليون okay مفترض
+
+581
+00:48:35,120 --> 00:48:39,000
+عندها خمسة مليون okayهدول خمسة مليون محتوطين في
+
+582
+00:48:39,000 --> 00:48:43,220
+ميزان المدفوعات هتدفع جزء منهم لمين؟ هتدفع جزء
+
+583
+00:48:43,220 --> 00:48:48,920
+منهم ل ال houses طب و في شغلات لل hospitals و في
+
+584
+00:48:48,920 --> 00:48:51,780
+شغلات لل insurance و في شغلات يعني للمستشفيات ده
+
+585
+00:48:51,780 --> 00:48:54,900
+تدفع و ل ال insurance هتدفع و ل الموظفين هتدفع و
+
+586
+00:48:54,900 --> 00:49:00,340
+كل شيء فبتروح ايش بتسوي؟ بتخفضالنسب دعم الطبقات
+
+587
+00:49:00,340 --> 00:49:03,020
+الأخرى فبيبدأ الاقتصاد يشنزر و بيصير عندنا أزمة
+
+588
+00:49:03,020 --> 00:49:05,920
+مالية و بيصيروا يستغلوا على الموظفين و بيصيروا
+
+589
+00:49:05,920 --> 00:49:10,340
+مايدفعوش مثلا لل .. لل .. بيشتغلوا في ال .. ال ..
+
+590
+00:49:10,340 --> 00:49:14,060
+مثلا كبار السن و بيصير عندك أزمة مالية طبعا هذه ب
+
+591
+00:49:14,060 --> 00:49:20,300
+.. بحدود بسيط بعدك الأزمة وصلت لمراحل متقدمة ماشي
+
+592
+00:49:20,300 --> 00:49:21,280
+انجلت عند هذا الحد
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/YkSEw7ESmvQ.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/YkSEw7ESmvQ.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..7345d2483691aa19bb9ca046237930ba1c9e82cf
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/YkSEw7ESmvQ.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1727 @@
+1
+00:00:21,330 --> 00:00:24,710
+الـ .. في المعنى الفاتحة حكينا عن الـ arithmetic و
+
+2
+00:00:24,710 --> 00:00:30,790
+الـ geometric methods and we agree on that both
+
+3
+00:00:30,790 --> 00:00:39,330
+methods conclude approximately similar answers
+
+4
+00:00:39,330 --> 00:00:42,390
+with
+
+5
+00:00:42,390 --> 00:00:47,430
+regard to risk يعني حسب الـ risk طيب اليوم هنحكي على
+
+6
+00:00:47,430 --> 00:00:52,450
+الـ reward to volatility نحكي على sharp ratio خلينا 
+
+7
+00:00:52,450 --> 00:01:01,810
+نرجع لـ this chart again نرجع لهذا الـ chart okay و
+
+8
+00:01:01,810 --> 00:01:08,450
+just if we have a and b if we have stock a and
+
+9
+00:01:08,450 --> 00:01:12,410
+stock b and this is sigma and this is the expected
+
+10
+00:01:12,410 --> 00:01:22,850
+return سؤالي هو ماهو أفضل؟ Stock A أو Stock B؟ ماهو
+
+11
+00:01:22,850 --> 00:01:28,490
+أفضل؟ Stock A أو Stock B؟ Stock B Stock B، لماذا
+
+12
+00:01:28,490 --> 00:01:33,910
+Stock B؟ أكثر
+
+13
+00:01:33,910 --> 00:01:38,730
+من 10 أكثر من 10 ولكن في الوقت نفسه يتخلص من أقل
+
+14
+00:01:38,730 --> 00:01:39,390
+فرصة
+
+15
+00:01:43,190 --> 00:01:46,010
+we cannot say this نقدرش نحكم الكلام على ده
+
+16
+00:01:46,010 --> 00:01:53,130
+because some investors acquire lower return with
+
+17
+00:01:53,130 --> 00:01:57,790
+lower risk other investors acquire higher return
+
+18
+00:01:57,790 --> 00:02:04,570
+with higher risk okay so some investors prefer A
+
+19
+00:02:04,570 --> 00:02:09,070
+others investors prefer B يعني بعض المستثمين بفضله
+
+20
+00:02:09,070 --> 00:02:14,720
+A بعض المستثمين الآخرين بفضله بفضله B Okay لكن
+
+21
+00:02:14,720 --> 00:02:18,020
+نقدرش
+
+22
+00:02:18,020 --> 00:02:24,780
+نحكم if you only focus on return and if we only
+
+23
+00:02:24,780 --> 00:02:28,400
+focus on risk يعني إذا إحنا بس بنركز بالـ return
+
+24
+00:02:28,400 --> 00:02:31,820
+على وحده أو بنركز على الـ risk على وحده it is not
+
+25
+00:02:31,820 --> 00:02:38,420
+useful فـ sharp .. sharp develop a ratio which
+
+26
+00:02:38,420 --> 00:02:43,740
+called sharp ratio لأن هي طورته باسمه and this
+
+27
+00:02:43,740 --> 00:02:49,440
+sharp ratio link the return with the risk طربط الـ
+
+28
+00:02:49,440 --> 00:02:52,960
+risk الـ return مع الـ risk okay يعني لو أجينا احنا
+
+29
+00:02:52,960 --> 00:03:02,280
+لـ A و B حكينا الـ E return تبع A is six percent and
+
+30
+00:03:02,280 --> 00:03:11,670
+this is nine percent والسيجما اللي هو حرارة a هو 0
+
+31
+00:03:11,670 --> 00:03:23,810
+.12 وسيجما بيه 0.75 حسنا؟ لذلك الآن a يحافظ على
+
+32
+00:03:23,810 --> 00:03:31,970
+حرارة آسفة وحرارة آسفة كذلك بي حافظ على حرارة أعلى
+
+33
+00:03:31,970 --> 00:03:38,260
+وحرارة أعلى at the moment we cannot conclude which
+
+34
+00:03:38,260 --> 00:03:42,000
+investment we should prefer يعني لللحظة هذه ما
+
+35
+00:03:42,000 --> 00:03:49,700
+بنقدرش to conclude أي واحدة أفضل A ولا B so we
+
+36
+00:03:49,700 --> 00:03:55,360
+need a ratio that combining the return and risk
+
+37
+00:03:55,360 --> 00:04:01,450
+together نحتاج لـ ratio لمعادلة بتعمل mixing or
+
+38
+00:04:01,450 --> 00:04:05,330
+combining لـ الـ return و الـ risk مع بعض إن احنا
+
+39
+00:04:05,330 --> 00:04:09,810
+نحتاج لمعادلة تخلطهم مع بعض to mix this and end
+
+40
+00:04:09,810 --> 00:04:13,610
+with one figure and one figure just compare this
+
+41
+00:04:13,610 --> 00:04:20,670
+with this and this is what's been done by sharp و
+
+42
+00:04:20,670 --> 00:04:23,810
+هذا اللي سوّى sharp sharp just mixing
+
+43
+00:04:26,830 --> 00:04:31,050
+العادة العادية مع العادة العادية الصحيحة الواضحة
+
+44
+00:04:31,050 --> 00:04:40,590
+الواضحة الواضحة الواضحة الواضحة الواضحة الواضحة
+
+45
+00:04:40,590 --> 00:04:40,810
+الواضحة الواضحة الواضحة الواضحة الواضحة الواضحة
+
+46
+00:04:40,810 --> 00:04:45,530
+الواضحة الواضحة الواضحة الواضحة الواضحة الواضحة
+
+47
+00:04:45,530 --> 00:04:49,730
+الواضحة الواضحة and this is sigma one and this is
+
+48
+00:04:49,730 --> 00:04:57,170
+sigma two sigma one is a measure of risk because
+
+49
+00:04:57,170 --> 00:05:03,170
+and this
+
+50
+00:05:03,170 --> 00:05:07,990
+is a and this is b because b holding higher risk
+
+51
+00:05:07,990 --> 00:05:12,590
+so it should be compensated by the market by this
+
+52
+00:05:12,590 --> 00:05:19,700
+لأن ب تحمل مخاطر أعلى إذا لازم نعوضها بعائد أكثر
+
+53
+00:05:19,700 --> 00:05:25,020
+فهنا بنسمي risk premium هذه المنطقة اسمها risk
+
+54
+00:05:25,020 --> 00:05:30,220
+premium why risk premium؟ why risk premium؟ ليش
+
+55
+00:05:30,220 --> 00:05:35,940
+risk premium؟ because B holding higher risk
+
+56
+00:05:35,940 --> 00:05:39,180
+because it's holding higher risk it's compensated
+
+57
+00:05:39,180 --> 00:05:43,620
+by higher return okay so this is the risk premium
+
+58
+00:05:43,620 --> 00:05:46,180
+and
+
+59
+00:05:49,430 --> 00:05:53,810
+هذا هو الترجمة وبعدها مقياسه بالترجمة العادي
+
+60
+00:05:53,810 --> 00:05:54,530
+للترجمة العادي للترجمة العادي للترجمة العادي
+
+61
+00:05:54,530 --> 00:05:58,650
+لترجمة العادي لترجمة العادي لترجمة العادي لترجمة
+
+62
+00:05:58,650 --> 00:06:00,470
+العادي لترجمة العادي لترجمة العادي لترجمة العادي
+
+63
+00:06:00,470 --> 00:06:00,890
+لترجمة العادي لترجمة العادي لترجمة العادي لترجمة
+
+64
+00:06:00,890 --> 00:06:01,910
+العادي لترجمة العادي لترجمة العادي لترجمة العادي
+
+65
+00:06:01,910 --> 00:06:05,190
+لترجمة العادي لترجمة العادي لترجمة العادي لترجمة
+
+66
+00:06:05,190 --> 00:06:07,930
+العادي لترجمة العادي لترجمة العادي لترجمة العادي
+
+67
+00:06:07,930 --> 00:06:14,630
+لترجمة العادي
+
+68
+00:06:14,630 --> 00:06:19,690
+ليعني what is the probability to get this excess
+
+69
+00:06:19,690 --> 00:06:23,420
+returned؟ إيش احتمال؟ Okay, we agree this is a
+
+70
+00:06:23,420 --> 00:06:28,400
+compensation from .. from the market because B is
+
+71
+00:06:28,400 --> 00:06:33,500
+holding a greater risk than A, this is fine, but
+
+72
+00:06:33,500 --> 00:06:38,280
+the second question, we are uncertain that the
+
+73
+00:06:38,280 --> 00:06:43,320
+market can give this return لكن المشكلة الثانية إن
+
+74
+00:06:43,320 --> 00:06:49,090
+احنا مش متأكدين السوق هيعطينا الـ return ولا لأ risk
+
+75
+00:06:49,090 --> 00:06:53,230
+يعني إيش عرفنا إحنا الـ risk أول زمان قبل تلت
+
+76
+00:06:53,230 --> 00:06:56,070
+محاضرات أربعة محاضرات قبل تلت محاضرات أربعة
+
+77
+00:06:56,070 --> 00:06:56,090
+محاضرات قبل تلت محاضرات قبل تلت محاضرات قبل تلت
+
+78
+00:06:56,090 --> 00:06:56,450
+محاضرات قبل تلت محاضرات قبل تلت محاضرات قبل تلت
+
+79
+00:06:56,450 --> 00:06:57,630
+محاضرات قبل تلت محاضرات قبل تلت محاضرات قبل تلت
+
+80
+00:06:57,630 --> 00:07:02,990
+محاضرات قبل تلت محاضرات قبل تلت محاضرات قبل تلت
+
+81
+00:07:02,990 --> 00:07:10,410
+محاضرات قبل تلت محاضرات قبل تلت محاضر closely
+
+82
+00:07:10,410 --> 00:07:15,050
+speaking .. closely speaking يعني كثير .. يعني ن
+
+83
+00:07:15,050 --> 00:07:19,150
+.. نؤكد closely speaking that the Sharpe ratio
+
+84
+00:07:19,150 --> 00:07:23,590
+consider the .. the excess return which is risk
+
+85
+00:07:23,590 --> 00:07:28,710
+premium divided by the risk يعني بالأخير هي هذا الـ
+
+86
+00:07:28,710 --> 00:07:40,190
+return divided by risk عادة نحصل على 9% كعادة ولكن
+
+87
+00:07:40,190 --> 00:07:47,450
+المشكلة هي إلى أي درجة نحصل على 9% إلى أي درجة أننا
+
+88
+00:07:47,450 --> 00:07:56,310
+متأكدين نحصل على 9% عادة عادة
+
+89
+00:07:56,310 --> 00:08:03,510
+عادة عادة عادة عادة عادة عادة عادة عادة عادة عادة
+
+90
+00:08:03,510 --> 00:08:06,380
+عادة عادة عادة عادة عادة عادة عادة Okay let's now
+
+91
+00:08:06,380 --> 00:08:15,640
+to give example of a and b خلينا when
+
+92
+00:08:15,640 --> 00:08:21,560
+we calculate a when we calculate a the sharp ratio
+
+93
+00:08:21,560 --> 00:08:27,980
+of a is point thirty eight مين كان أول a ولا b
+
+94
+00:08:27,980 --> 00:08:39,370
+ب فوق كانت أه okay so thirty five and B is 41 so
+
+95
+00:08:39,370 --> 00:08:43,310
+we calculate sharp ratio for A and B حسبنا الـ
+
+96
+00:08:43,310 --> 00:08:49,930
+sharp ratio لـ A and B and we find that A is 35 and
+
+97
+00:08:49,930 --> 00:08:55,990
+B is 41 what it means لأ أنا أعطيتك مثال طبعا كيف
+
+98
+00:08:55,990 --> 00:09:03,280
+طلعناها طلعناها بالـ risk premium divided by
+
+99
+00:09:03,280 --> 00:09:10,220
+standard deviation of x's return okay تمام risk
+
+100
+00:09:10,220 --> 00:09:16,060
+premium هأعطيكم مثلا ما تخافوش this
+
+101
+00:09:16,060 --> 00:09:20,680
+is what I'm asking you what it means based on your
+
+102
+00:09:20,680 --> 00:09:25,000
+understanding of this what it means which is more
+
+103
+00:09:25,000 --> 00:09:30,800
+preferable investors prefer A or B متذكرين لما
+
+104
+00:09:30,800 --> 00:09:34,040
+حكينا الـ return و الـ risk we get confused some
+
+105
+00:09:34,040 --> 00:09:38,620
+people prefer a others prefer b but now just one
+
+106
+00:09:38,620 --> 00:09:43,440
+single answer إجابة واحدة هتكون which you prefer a
+
+107
+00:09:43,440 --> 00:09:53,520
+or b okay by you are right b but why why b why it
+
+108
+00:09:53,520 --> 00:09:56,940
+is أعلى what is b
+
+109
+00:10:04,190 --> 00:10:08,330
+Okay because the return will increase in the
+
+110
+00:10:08,330 --> 00:10:15,590
+future okay the performance of stocks when you
+
+111
+00:10:15,590 --> 00:10:19,450
+explain this focus on two things focus in return
+
+112
+00:10:19,450 --> 00:10:22,870
+focus in the excess return and risk together لأن
+
+113
+00:10:22,870 --> 00:10:26,870
+هذول إحنا قلنا إنه كان المشاكل بالـ return لوحده و
+
+114
+00:10:26,870 --> 00:10:32,110
+الـ sigma لوحدها إنه you judge on return and you
+
+115
+00:10:32,110 --> 00:10:36,750
+judge on risk but now you judge on both مع بعض
+
+116
+00:10:36,750 --> 00:10:48,600
+التنامدك تحكي so what it means 35 و
+
+117
+00:10:48,600 --> 00:10:51,640
+41 ماهي
+
+118
+00:10:51,640 --> 00:10:58,420
+الفرق بين 35 و 41 ماهي الفرق أعلى أعلى أعلى أعلى
+
+119
+00:10:58,420 --> 00:11:06,220
+أعلى أعلى أعلى أعلى أعلى
+
+120
+00:11:14,410 --> 00:11:20,850
+بتجمع بناتهم بعدين
+
+121
+00:11:20,850 --> 00:11:25,450
+بنات
+
+122
+00:11:25,450 --> 00:11:30,730
+ولا في أسهل من الـ calculations ولا في أسهل من الـ
+
+123
+00:11:30,730 --> 00:11:36,010
+calculations بتجيبكوا معادلة يحسبوها كل بيحسبها و
+
+124
+00:11:36,010 --> 00:11:39,760
+بتاخدوا مية في المية في الحسابات لكن الـ problem is
+
+125
+00:11:39,760 --> 00:11:44,840
+how to explain the result المشكلة كيف ن .. ال 
+
+126
+00:11:44,840 --> 00:11:48,660
+result what it means يعني بيجي يقولنا احسب ال
+
+127
+00:11:48,660 --> 00:11:50,980
+liquid ratio is fine okay what it means liquid
+
+128
+00:11:50,980 --> 00:11:55,440
+ratio then okay activity ratio that's fine so what
+
+129
+00:11:55,440 --> 00:11:59,180
+it means احنا بدل ما نكون stereotyping عارفين ال
+
+130
+00:11:59,180 --> 00:12:03,180
+stereotyping اه انه نيجي و نسمع مانفعش okay look
+
+131
+00:12:03,180 --> 00:12:10,140
+at this ايش حكيته صح إنه we prefer B over A، this
+
+132
+00:12:10,140 --> 00:12:15,100
+is fine، but what is the explanation؟ So as I said
+
+133
+00:12:15,100 --> 00:12:19,840
+you have two eyes, the first one which is your
+
+134
+00:12:19,840 --> 00:12:22,340
+right side looking at the return and the second,
+
+135
+00:12:22,820 --> 00:12:27,480
+the left looking at the risk. So the numerator
+
+136
+00:12:27,480 --> 00:12:30,260
+here is the risk premium which is the excess
+
+137
+00:12:30,260 --> 00:12:38,350
+return. وهنا ريسك ماذا يعني؟ يعني إذا كنا نحمل واحد
+
+138
+00:12:38,350 --> 00:12:48,870
+جزء من ريسك في B، فهو جعله 41% ولكن إذا كنا نحمل
+
+139
+00:12:48,870 --> 00:12:54,270
+واحد جزء في A، فهو جعله 35% في كلمات أخرى، في
+
+140
+00:12:54,270 --> 00:13:00,680
+كلمات أخرى، إذا كنا نستخدم واحد دولار في Bit means
+
+141
+00:13:00,680 --> 00:13:04,980
+we can make point forty one cents but if we invest
+
+142
+00:13:04,980 --> 00:13:09,620
+one dollar in a we can make thirty five cents
+
+143
+00:13:09,620 --> 00:13:16,500
+خلينا بالعربي شلون يحكي إنه وحدة وحدة مخاطر في b
+
+144
+00:13:16,500 --> 00:13:23,320
+بتعطيني عائد زيادة forty one يعني إذا أنا اتحملت
+
+145
+00:13:23,320 --> 00:13:27,280
+واحدة وحدة من المخاطر في b بتعطيني عائد زائد
+
+146
+00:13:27,280 --> 00:13:31,990
+forty one cent لكن إذا أنا اتحملت وحدة مخاطرة في a
+
+147
+00:13:31,990 --> 00:13:36,650
+بتعطيني thirty-five إذا
+
+148
+00:13:36,650 --> 00:13:39,690
+.. يعني ال rest بتكون fixed؟ ال fixed ما احنا ..
+
+149
+00:13:39,690 --> 00:13:43,390
+we standardize تعمل .. لما احنا بنقسم مقسوم عليه
+
+150
+00:13:43,390 --> 00:13:48,170
+بيكون standardized standardized يعني بن .. موحد
+
+151
+00:13:48,170 --> 00:13:53,670
+يعني بيصير okay يعني مثلا ببساطة لما يكون احنا
+
+152
+00:13:53,670 --> 00:13:58,790
+عندنا عشر تفاحات بنقسمهم على خمس أولاد عشر تفاحات ..
+
+153
+00:13:58,790 --> 00:14:03,850
+don't laugh this is the idea of division هذه فكرة
+
+154
+00:14:03,850 --> 00:14:08,050
+ال division فكرة القسمة لما أكون عند عشر تفاحات ten
+
+155
+00:14:08,050 --> 00:14:12,630
+apples and we have five boys so how many apples
+
+156
+00:14:12,630 --> 00:14:17,170
+for each boy كم تفاحة لكل ولد you just .. ten
+
+157
+00:14:17,170 --> 00:14:21,970
+divided by five so it is two what it means two it
+
+158
+00:14:21,970 --> 00:14:27,230
+means one boy holding two apples مظبوط؟
+
+159
+00:14:28,980 --> 00:14:37,200
+ولد إله تفاحتين and in the same vein similarly و
+
+160
+00:14:37,200 --> 00:14:45,120
+بالتشابه it's one unit of risk generates 41% of
+
+161
+00:14:45,120 --> 00:14:50,140
+return و مرات ال principles هذه تبعت الرياضيات و
+
+162
+00:14:50,140 --> 00:14:53,220
+الهادي some people they get confused what it means
+
+163
+00:14:55,420 --> 00:14:58,060
+بعض الناس they get confused they don't know
+
+164
+00:14:58,060 --> 00:15:01,020
+exactly what it means division or what it means
+
+165
+00:15:01,020 --> 00:15:05,040
+the other
+
+166
+00:15:05,040 --> 00:15:09,380
+functions of mathematics so again the idea of
+
+167
+00:15:09,380 --> 00:15:14,760
+sharp ratio is if we holding one unit in risk for
+
+168
+00:15:14,760 --> 00:15:18,640
+a particular stock how much excess return generate
+
+169
+00:15:18,640 --> 00:15:24,690
+to the investors the higher the ratio is the .. the
+
+170
+00:15:24,690 --> 00:15:27,810
+more preferable to the investors يعني كل ما كانت
+
+171
+00:15:27,810 --> 00:15:31,350
+ال ratio أعلى كل ما كانت ال investors كانوا بفضله
+
+172
+00:15:31,350 --> 00:15:35,690
+هذه ال .. ال access return مفهوم يا بنات؟
+
+173
+00:15:35,690 --> 00:15:46,270
+commensurate commensurate it means compensate why
+
+174
+00:15:46,270 --> 00:15:49,950
+are you laughing? commensurate شوفوا إيش معناه
+
+175
+00:15:49,950 --> 00:15:54,490
+commensurate commensurate it means إن أنا .. طلعوا
+
+176
+00:15:54,490 --> 00:16:02,890
+عني احنا هاي a و هاي b okay في ال mathematics لما
+
+177
+00:16:02,890 --> 00:16:07,890
+نيجي نحكي لإن sigma .. sigma one sigma two because
+
+178
+00:16:07,890 --> 00:16:13,210
+we holding .. we holding higher risk the financial
+
+179
+00:16:13,210 --> 00:16:21,180
+market commensurate us يعني ب .. بكافئنا okay by
+
+180
+00:16:21,180 --> 00:16:25,580
+giving higher return بيعطينا higher return هذا
+
+181
+00:16:25,580 --> 00:16:31,620
+بيسمى commensurate okay
+
+182
+00:16:31,620 --> 00:16:40,660
+that's it طيب
+
+183
+00:16:40,660 --> 00:16:44,640
+نفس الكلام لأن كل ما احنا هذه بتزيد كل ما ال risk
+
+184
+00:16:44,640 --> 00:16:50,880
+بزيد So it's this similar to the what you are
+
+185
+00:16:50,880 --> 00:16:59,260
+asking. Okay, but any question؟ No؟
+
+186
+00:16:59,260 --> 00:17:04,020
+طيب Okay, pay attention here. This is important as
+
+187
+00:17:04,020 --> 00:17:12,100
+well. تبقوا على الكلام هذا Now
+
+188
+00:17:13,900 --> 00:17:24,200
+المشكلة هي .. كونوا مهتمين هنا كونوا
+
+189
+00:17:24,200 --> 00:17:28,160
+مهتمين هنا عندما نقوم بمقارنة الترجمه نقوم بعمل
+
+190
+00:17:28,160 --> 00:17:34,520
+ذلك باستخدام الارثماتيكي و الجيومتريكي و عندما
+
+191
+00:17:34,520 --> 00:17:37,820
+نقوم بمقارنة الضرر نقوم بمقارنة التطبيقات
+
+192
+00:17:37,820 --> 00:17:45,850
+والتطبيقات التي هي سجناحكينا عن الكلام ده لما
+
+193
+00:17:45,850 --> 00:17:48,990
+بنحسب ال return بنحسبه بال arithmetic و ال
+
+194
+00:17:48,990 --> 00:17:54,370
+geometric و لما حسبنا ال risk حسبناها بال sigma
+
+195
+00:17:54,370 --> 00:17:58,850
+standard deviation or variance اللي هو انحراف
+
+196
+00:17:58,850 --> 00:18:03,570
+المعياري و التباين، مظبوط؟ okay the problem of
+
+197
+00:18:03,570 --> 00:18:08,430
+these measures المشكلة في هذه ال measures we only
+
+198
+00:18:08,430 --> 00:18:12,250
+apply them when our data or our observation
+
+199
+00:18:12,250 --> 00:18:18,890
+follows a normal distribution يعني المشكلة إنه
+
+200
+00:18:18,890 --> 00:18:25,230
+نحسب ال sigma و الميو الميو يعني ال arithmetic إذا
+
+201
+00:18:25,230 --> 00:18:28,110
+كانت ال data or observation follows the normal
+
+202
+00:18:28,110 --> 00:18:32,590
+distribution إذا كان عندنا توزيع طبيعي طبعا بعرف
+
+203
+00:18:32,590 --> 00:18:37,030
+أن أنتو ماخدين statistics إحصى what it means
+
+204
+00:18:37,030 --> 00:18:39,430
+normal distribution شو معناه normal distribution
+
+205
+00:18:39,430 --> 00:18:44,690
+توزيع طبيعي شو
+
+206
+00:18:44,690 --> 00:18:50,860
+توزيع طبيعي ماخدته إحصى صح؟ مين ما أخدش إحصى؟ أخدتوا
+
+207
+00:18:50,860 --> 00:18:53,620
+أحسن درسوكوا في الجامعة موضوع ال normal
+
+208
+00:18:53,620 --> 00:18:58,840
+distribution توزيع الطبيعي طب what it means؟ بس طب
+
+209
+00:18:58,840 --> 00:19:03,620
+okay الرسمة عبير وسمية الرسمة بتاعته just try مش
+
+210
+00:19:03,620 --> 00:19:11,460
+مشكلة just try to figure out because
+
+211
+00:19:11,460 --> 00:19:16,640
+this is important امحي لهذا و مارجينا ال normal
+
+212
+00:19:16,640 --> 00:19:17,140
+distribution
+
+213
+00:19:28,770 --> 00:19:32,910
+Okay excellent بس في ال tail رايحة ال right خلي ال
+
+214
+00:19:32,910 --> 00:19:39,450
+tail زي مشابهين لبعض عارف إيش ال tail يعني اه؟ ال
+
+215
+00:19:39,450 --> 00:19:47,660
+tail يعني الدنب Okay looks fine شكرا
+
+216
+00:19:47,660 --> 00:19:54,020
+this is the normal distribution if
+
+217
+00:19:54,020 --> 00:20:03,100
+we have for instance normal distribution التوزيع
+
+218
+00:20:03,100 --> 00:20:08,160
+الطبيعي in this shape it looks like bell shape
+
+219
+00:20:10,910 --> 00:20:14,810
+تشبه ال build shape يعني زي الجرسة bell shape
+
+220
+00:20:14,810 --> 00:20:21,870
+there is a symmetry if we half this just we excuse
+
+221
+00:20:21,870 --> 00:20:25,290
+عبيه just to draw it back يعني احنا بناخد اذن منها
+
+222
+00:20:25,290 --> 00:20:36,950
+to draw it back okay so if you half this into two
+
+223
+00:20:36,950 --> 00:20:44,580
+sections So it's approximately shows the similar or
+
+224
+00:20:44,580 --> 00:20:48,720
+a mirror So the right side is a mirror of the left
+
+225
+00:20:48,720 --> 00:20:53,860
+side يعني ال right side هو mirror لل left side
+
+226
+00:20:53,860 --> 00:21:00,220
+okay This is the normal distribution So it means
+
+227
+00:21:00,220 --> 00:21:05,300
+if we have a daily return for a particular stock
+
+228
+00:21:06,250 --> 00:21:09,490
+and we calculate the daily return for instance in
+
+229
+00:21:09,490 --> 00:21:14,370
+the day one, day two, day three and so on and we
+
+230
+00:21:14,370 --> 00:21:18,790
+just draw the chart إذا احنا أخدنا ال daily return
+
+231
+00:21:18,790 --> 00:21:23,810
+يعني العوائد اليومية مثلا ل 250 يوم وعملنا لهم ال
+
+232
+00:21:23,810 --> 00:21:28,930
+chart يعني حطناهم ال chart رسما ف for instance
+
+233
+00:21:28,930 --> 00:21:36,460
+maybe this zero most of the days is zeros Okay and
+
+234
+00:21:36,460 --> 00:21:41,400
+here for instance one percent five percent twelve
+
+235
+00:21:41,400 --> 00:21:46,580
+percent and here twenty percent and here the same
+
+236
+00:21:46,580 --> 00:21:53,060
+one five but minus this and twelve percent minus
+
+237
+00:21:53,060 --> 00:21:57,340
+twenty percent We
+
+238
+00:21:57,340 --> 00:22:02,700
+try to calculate mean median and mode
+
+239
+00:22:05,800 --> 00:22:10,520
+Okay so if our data is follow a normal
+
+240
+00:22:10,520 --> 00:22:15,760
+distribution mean median and mode conclude same
+
+241
+00:22:15,760 --> 00:22:19,440
+points يعني إذا حسبنا ال mean ال mean ال average
+
+242
+00:22:19,440 --> 00:22:26,840
+صح okay median it halves the data into two
+
+243
+00:22:26,840 --> 00:22:32,060
+separate numbers يعني ال ال ال median تقسمهم إلى
+
+244
+00:22:32,060 --> 00:22:36,820
+اعداد متساوية الموديل هو frequency of a particular
+
+245
+00:22:36,820 --> 00:22:44,280
+فلاقينا كلهم اعطونا zero يعني كل ال .. أكثر ..
+
+246
+00:22:44,280 --> 00:22:49,480
+أكثر ال .. ال frequencies zero إذا احنا we have
+
+247
+00:22:49,480 --> 00:22:56,720
+this شفتوا ال data if
+
+248
+00:22:56,720 --> 00:22:57,760
+we calculate ميو
+
+249
+00:23:00,710 --> 00:23:04,930
+يعني الوسط الحسابي بنلاقي إنه the right side
+
+250
+00:23:04,930 --> 00:23:11,410
+approximately equal the left side الجانب اليمين 
+
+251
+00:23:11,410 --> 00:23:17,330
+تقريبا بيساوي جانب الشمال okay so this is normal
+
+252
+00:23:17,330 --> 00:23:21,730
+distribution but the problem is sometimes the data
+
+253
+00:23:21,730 --> 00:23:27,050
+is not normally distributed لكن ال data مرات ما 
+
+254
+00:23:27,050 --> 00:23:31,040
+بتكونش normally distributed ما بتكونش موزع توزيع 
+
+255
+00:23:31,040 --> 00:23:38,480
+طبيعي نعود إلى هذا، فقط تذكر هذا و هنرجع نحكي فيها
+
+256
+00:23:38,480 --> 00:23:48,100
+من وجهة نظر المستثمرين، إذا كانت الملاحظة أو 
+
+257
+00:23:48,100 --> 00:23:51,360
+المعلومات تتبع المشاركة الطبيعية، فإنها بخير و
+
+258
+00:23:51,360 --> 00:23:57,920
+أسهل لهم أن يشكلوا مجموعاتهم يعني إذا كانت ال data
+
+259
+00:23:57,920 --> 00:24:01,920
+ال observations توزيعها طبيعي زي ما احنا شفنا فال
+
+260
+00:24:01,920 --> 00:24:05,560
+portfolio managers it easily for them to forming
+
+261
+00:24:05,560 --> 00:24:09,200
+up portfolios يعني بيصيح سهل جدا عليهم أن هم
+
+262
+00:24:09,200 --> 00:24:15,340
+يكونوا portfolios otherwise .. otherwise يعني إذا
+
+263
+00:24:15,340 --> 00:24:20,760
+ماكنتش هيك otherwise it may face challenges in
+
+264
+00:24:20,760 --> 00:24:23,080
+forming up the portfolios and they have to use
+
+265
+00:24:23,080 --> 00:24:28,190
+other metrics metrics معناها مقاييس أخرى they have
+
+266
+00:24:28,190 --> 00:24:31,370
+to use other metrics to estimate the risk عشان
+
+267
+00:24:31,370 --> 00:24:36,510
+يتنبأوا بال risk okay so the investment management
+
+268
+00:24:36,510 --> 00:24:39,970
+is easier with them when returns are normally
+
+269
+00:24:39,970 --> 00:24:42,990
+distributed إذا كانت normal like in this shape
+
+270
+00:24:42,990 --> 00:24:48,870
+then based on this sigma or standard deviation is
+
+271
+00:24:48,870 --> 00:24:51,370
+a good measure of risk when returns are symmetric
+
+272
+00:24:52,680 --> 00:24:56,900
+زي ما أنتم شايفين ال sigma يعني إذا حسبنا sigma
+
+273
+00:24:56,900 --> 00:25:06,180
+this sigma this let's try it another so sigma one
+
+274
+00:25:06,180 --> 00:25:11,360
+is equals sigma one يعني standard deviation of
+
+275
+00:25:11,360 --> 00:25:14,820
+this side is equals standard deviation of this one
+
+276
+00:25:14,820 --> 00:25:15,800
+okay
+
+277
+00:25:19,740 --> 00:25:21,800
+So in this case standard deviation is a good
+
+278
+00:25:21,800 --> 00:25:23,980
+measure of risk when returns are symmetric,
+
+279
+00:25:24,740 --> 00:25:30,020
+symmetric it means are equally distributed if not
+
+280
+00:25:30,020 --> 00:25:33,780
+if security returns are symmetric portfolio
+
+281
+00:25:33,780 --> 00:25:37,480
+returns will be too إذا كان symmetric كمان ال
+
+282
+00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:40,160
+portfolio لما نعمل محفظ استثماري يكون التوزيع تبع
+
+283
+00:25:40,160 --> 00:25:46,720
+توزيع طبيعي توزيع ال return يعني بنحصل على توزيعات
+
+284
+00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:50,770
+بهذا الشكل portfolios future scenarios can be
+
+285
+00:25:50,770 --> 00:25:52,750
+estimated using only the mean and standard
+
+286
+00:25:52,750 --> 00:25:57,170
+deviation فبعد هيك إذا كان كل شي تمام بيكون كل ال
+
+287
+00:25:57,170 --> 00:26:00,070
+calculations تبعتنا و كل الحسابات عشان نعمل
+
+288
+00:26:00,070 --> 00:26:03,510
+forming لل portfolios portfolios يعني المحافظة بس
+
+289
+00:26:03,510 --> 00:26:07,070
+بنستخدم ال mean and standard deviation يعني
+
+290
+00:26:07,070 --> 00:26:13,850
+بنستخدم ال mean and standard deviation if not إذا
+
+291
+00:26:13,850 --> 00:26:17,940
+كلام هذا مش صحيح we no longer use sharp ratio
+
+292
+00:26:17,940 --> 00:26:23,080
+standard deviation and the mu إذا الكلام إذا ال
+
+293
+00:26:23,080 --> 00:26:27,200
+data تبعتنا مش normally distributed we cannot use
+
+294
+00:26:27,200 --> 00:26:32,920
+the standard deviation and sharp ratio as well
+
+295
+00:26:32,920 --> 00:26:36,080
+نقدرش نستخدم ال standard deviation و ال sigma
+
+296
+00:26:36,080 --> 00:26:39,120
+خلينا 
+
+297
+00:26:39,120 --> 00:26:46,840
+بس نركز هان look at this part هذا ال .. ال part
+
+298
+00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:53,360
+اللي بال yellow this
+
+299
+00:26:53,360 --> 00:26:58,580
+is sigma two it should .. هذه sigma two or the
+
+300
+00:26:58,580 --> 00:27:03,940
+second sigma and this is the second sigma this
+
+301
+00:27:03,940 --> 00:27:09,880
+part is the third sigma and this part is the third
+
+302
+00:27:09,880 --> 00:27:13,320
+.. third sigma finally this part .. this is small
+
+303
+00:27:13,320 --> 00:27:18,240
+part you know this this is the fourth sigma and
+
+304
+00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:22,260
+this is the fourth sigma as well I know this is a
+
+305
+00:27:22,260 --> 00:27:26,520
+new thing for you انا بعرف هذا شيء جديد عليكم but
+
+306
+00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:34,040
+I think طيب ما تخافوش اصبروا
+
+307
+00:27:34,040 --> 00:27:38,400
+علينا بس تخافوش هذا هتتوضح بس يعني just to
+
+308
+00:27:38,400 --> 00:27:42,720
+understand in
+
+309
+00:27:42,720 --> 00:27:48,840
+other words in other words انه طالع هان ال ميو
+
+310
+00:27:48,840 --> 00:27:54,700
+الموجودة هان is a mirror of the ميو here the
+
+311
+00:27:54,700 --> 00:28:00,700
+second sigma is the variance هو ال variance the
+
+312
+00:28:00,700 --> 00:28:05,780
+third sigma is the skewness the fourth sigma is
+
+313
+00:28:05,780 --> 00:28:13,000
+the kurtosis okay هذه second sigma هي ال standard
+
+314
+00:28:13,000 --> 00:28:19,190
+deviation هذه المفهومة the third sigma هي ال
+
+315
+00:28:19,190 --> 00:28:25,650
+skewness أو the skew سمعتوا في skew؟ and fourth
+
+316
+00:28:25,650 --> 00:28:30,170
+sigma والله سمعتوا فيها بس اصبر أنا أسكت أسكت أسكت
+
+317
+00:28:30,170 --> 00:28:36,170
+أسكت أسكت أسكت أسكت أسكت أسكت أسكت أسكت أسكت أسكت
+
+318
+00:28:36,170 --> 00:28:38,990
+أسكت أسكت أسكت أسكت أسكت أسكت أسكت أسكت أسكت أسكت
+
+319
+00:28:38,990 --> 00:28:42,370
+أسكت أسكت أسكت أسكت أسكت أسكت أسكت أسكت أسكت أسكت
+
+320
+00:28:42,370 --> 00:28:48,740
+أسكت أسكت أسكت أسكت أسكت أسكت أسكت kurtosis okay
+
+321
+00:28:48,740 --> 00:28:53,600
+kurtosis اللي هو kurtosis ايش معناها
+
+322
+00:28:53,600 --> 00:28:58,840
+kurtosis اللي هي التفلطح ال .. ال .. ال flatting
+
+323
+00:28:58,840 --> 00:29:05,540
+هي التفلطح اه هي هيك التفلطح okay kurtosis it
+
+324
+00:29:05,540 --> 00:29:08,300
+means it means if the data
+
+325
+00:29:11,690 --> 00:29:15,670
+look at this this chart this data is normally
+
+326
+00:29:15,670 --> 00:29:20,230
+distributed ال data هي normally distributed if it
+
+327
+00:29:20,230 --> 00:29:27,070
+is not look at the third sigma here if it is not
+
+328
+00:29:27,070 --> 00:29:30,430
+so we no longer use the second sigma or the
+
+329
+00:29:30,430 --> 00:29:32,750
+variance or the standard deviation نقدرش نستخدم ال
+
+330
+00:29:32,750 --> 00:29:37,490
+.. because a mu here is not equal the mu here اه
+
+331
+00:29:37,490 --> 00:29:40,370
+خليني أشوف
+
+332
+00:29:53,170 --> 00:30:00,130
+انظروا إلى هذه التاريخ هل 
+
+333
+00:30:00,130 --> 00:30:09,590
+هذا يتبع المشاركة الطبيعية؟ لا، هذا هو positivo،
+
+334
+00:30:09,590 --> 00:30:17,730
+لذلك انظروا إلى هنا الميو هنا ليس أيضا ميو هنا،
+
+335
+00:30:17,730 --> 00:30:23,140
+هذا بخير مثلًا، بسبب هذا، لا نستطيع أن نستخدم
+
+336
+00:30:23,140 --> 00:30:27,880
+الانتجار العام لأن الانتجار العام ليس مرتبط بشكل
+
+337
+00:30:27,880 --> 00:30:33,980
+إيقاعي، وما هي المشكلة؟ المشكلة هي أن الثالث، وهي
+
+338
+00:30:33,980 --> 00:30:43,280
+هذه الجزيرة، ثالث سيجما أكبر من الثالث سيجما هنا،
+
+339
+00:30:43,280 --> 00:30:48,820
+وكذلك الثالث سيجما أكبر من الثالث سيجما هنا، بسيطة
+
+340
+00:30:48,820 --> 00:30:52,120
+جدا يعني ال third sigma هنا هي أكبر من ال third
+
+341
+00:30:52,120 --> 00:30:55,380
+sigma هنا و ال fourth sigma is .. so the third
+
+342
+00:30:55,380 --> 00:30:59,620
+sigma here which is this skewness this skew ..
+
+343
+00:30:59,620 --> 00:31:04,360
+this curve is skewed to the right which means it
+
+344
+00:31:04,360 --> 00:31:10,300
+has a positive skewness yes positive so this skew
+
+345
+00:31:10,300 --> 00:31:14,880
+here is positive which means it's greater than
+
+346
+00:31:14,880 --> 00:31:16,520
+zero
+
+347
+00:31:19,250 --> 00:31:22,310
+greater than zero what it means greater than zero
+
+348
+00:31:22,310 --> 00:31:30,830
+ايش معناه اللي أنه القيم ال outliers في outliers
+
+349
+00:31:30,830 --> 00:31:36,410
+بتعمل bowling the average up بتعمل سحب لل average
+
+350
+00:31:36,410 --> 00:31:43,010
+إلى أعلى okay أغلب ال data متوفرة most of the data
+
+351
+00:31:43,010 --> 00:31:47,730
+is in here لكن في outliers is pushing or bowling
+
+352
+00:31:47,730 --> 00:31:52,190
+the data up فبيصير ال mu و ال average is misleading
+
+353
+00:31:52,190 --> 00:31:57,870
+بيصير ال average مش دقيق يعني مثلًا لو أجينا احنا
+
+354
+00:31:57,870 --> 00:32:02,710
+أعطيناكوا بيانات كتالي علامات طلاب مثلًا علامات
+
+355
+00:32:02,710 --> 00:32:10,590
+طلاب أجينا مثلًا طالب أخد مية و بدأنا الطلاب خمسين
+
+356
+00:32:10,590 --> 00:32:18,020
+أربعين تلاتين واحدة خمسة و خمسين أربع و خمسين،
+
+357
+00:32:18,020 --> 00:32:22,680
+ستين، ايش بنلاقي أنه احنا في أننا تسعة و تسعين
+
+358
+00:32:22,680 --> 00:32:27,660
+بتلاقي أنه في شكل ال curve هاد أنه most of the
+
+359
+00:32:27,660 --> 00:32:31,800
+data are focusing between fifty to sixty أغلب ال
+
+360
+00:32:31,800 --> 00:32:34,680
+data بتتركز بال fifty sixty but because of the
+
+361
+00:32:34,680 --> 00:32:38,460
+outliers شايفين ال outliers هدول is trying to push
+
+362
+00:32:38,460 --> 00:32:44,200
+up the average يحاولوا أن ال averaging ينبعد ل أو 
+
+363
+00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:52,700
+ينسحب لأعلى okay the good news for you so the good
+
+364
+00:32:52,700 --> 00:32:56,140
+news for you i'm not asking you to calculate the
+
+365
+00:32:56,140 --> 00:33:00,320
+skewness or the kurtosis أنا مش طالبكم أن أنتم
+
+366
+00:33:00,320 --> 00:33:06,700
+تحسبوا ال skew and kurtosis because لأنه there is
+
+367
+00:33:08,850 --> 00:33:13,350
+في good news لكم أنه مش مطلوب منكم تحسبوا ال .. ال
+
+368
+00:33:13,350 --> 00:33:17,190
+.. ال skewness أو the kurtosis .. kurtosis مش
+
+369
+00:33:17,190 --> 00:33:24,090
+مطلوب skew بدي أحسبها very simple هي عبارة عن ال
+
+370
+00:33:24,090 --> 00:33:31,010
+.. ال .. ال .. ال mu minus x bar okay divided by 
+
+371
+00:33:31,010 --> 00:33:38,510
+sigma raised to the cube okay and this is هذا ال SQ
+
+372
+00:33:38,510 --> 00:33:44,690
+نحسب ال .. هي عبارة .. اكتبوا معاها المعادلة واضحة
+
+373
+00:33:44,690 --> 00:33:51,190
+بس ال
+
+374
+00:33:51,190 --> 00:33:56,470
+SQ هتساوي اللي هو R minus R bar raised to the
+
+375
+00:33:56,470 --> 00:34:04,450
+power 3 divided by sigma raised to the power 3 هذا 
+
+376
+00:34:04,450 --> 00:34:10,650
+عشان نحسب ال .. ال skew يعني سهلا جيب ال R minus R 
+
+377
+00:34:10,650 --> 00:34:15,430
+bar و raise to the power 3 بعدين هاي sigma raise 
+
+378
+00:34:15,430 --> 00:34:22,850
+to the power 3 very simple اه ال .. ال quote says
+
+379
+00:34:22,850 --> 00:34:26,110
+is
+
+380
+00:34:26,110 --> 00:34:33,120
+equal R minus R bar raise to the power 4 مقارنة
+
+381
+00:34:33,120 --> 00:34:42,020
+بال sigma raise to the power 4 مانوس 3 إذا
+
+382
+00:34:42,020 --> 00:34:47,540
+كانت نتيجة هذا الـ Q هنا هذا ما تريده إذا كانت
+
+383
+00:34:47,540 --> 00:34:55,700
+نتيجة هذا الـ Q هنا جيدة يعني أن الـ curve هو
+
+384
+00:34:55,700 --> 00:34:57,960
+تغيير ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال
+
+385
+00:34:57,960 --> 00:34:59,240
+.. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال ..
+
+386
+00:34:59,240 --> 00:35:00,500
+ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال
+
+387
+00:35:00,500 --> 00:35:00,960
+.. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال ..
+
+388
+00:35:00,960 --> 00:35:01,000
+ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال
+
+389
+00:35:01,000 --> 00:35:08,320
+.. ال Okay if it is negative so the curve is skewed
+
+390
+00:35:08,320 --> 00:35:15,800
+to the left okay what is why this is important to
+
+391
+00:35:15,800 --> 00:35:19,160
+the investors why this is important to the
+
+392
+00:35:19,160 --> 00:35:22,300
+investors ليش هذا مهم للإنفستورز this is a very
+
+393
+00:35:22,300 --> 00:35:26,600
+important point if the curve is skewed to the
+
+394
+00:35:26,600 --> 00:35:30,820
+right it means people overestimate
+
+395
+00:35:36,330 --> 00:35:42,650
+Risk People overestimate risk if this Q is
+
+396
+00:35:42,650 --> 00:35:51,850
+negative it means people underestimate risk okay
+
+397
+00:35:51,850 --> 00:35:55,150
+now
+
+398
+00:35:55,150 --> 00:36:01,870
+for the kurtosis the kurtosis okay if this Q
+
+399
+00:36:01,870 --> 00:36:02,930
+is zero what it means
+
+400
+00:36:05,770 --> 00:36:11,610
+ماذا يعني إذا كانت قيمة قيمة عادية إذا كانت قيمة
+
+401
+00:36:11,610 --> 00:36:15,170
+قيمة عادية قيمة عادية قيمة عادية قيمة عادية قيمة
+
+402
+00:36:15,170 --> 00:36:19,490
+قيمة عادية قيمة عادية قيمة عادية قيمة
+
+403
+00:36:19,490 --> 00:36:21,490
+عادية قيمة عادية قيمة عادية قيمة عادية قيمة عادية
+
+404
+00:36:21,490 --> 00:36:21,850
+قيمة عادية قيمة عادية قيمة عادية قيمة عادية قيمة
+
+405
+00:36:21,850 --> 00:36:21,870
+قيمة عادية قيمة عادية قيمة عادية قيمة عادية قيمة
+
+406
+00:36:21,870 --> 00:36:30,190
+عادية قيمة عادية قيمة عادية
+
+407
+00:36:30,190 --> 00:36:31,150
+ق
+
+408
+00:36:35,600 --> 00:36:39,600
+is skewed to the right if the third moment is
+
+409
+00:36:39,600 --> 00:36:42,440
+greater than the third moment it means to the left
+
+410
+00:36:42,440 --> 00:36:47,820
+okay now what is the kurtosis the kurtosis it
+
+411
+00:36:47,820 --> 00:36:54,200
+means to what extent our data is flat لأي درجة ال
+
+412
+00:36:54,200 --> 00:37:01,200
+data تبعتنا flat يعني مفلطة okayو هاي عندكم ال
+
+413
+00:37:01,200 --> 00:37:05,500
+first sigma و second sigma و third sigma و ..
+
+414
+00:37:05,500 --> 00:37:13,700
+واضحة؟ طلعوا هان تبوا يا بنات هان look
+
+415
+00:37:13,700 --> 00:37:21,180
+at here look at the .. the hard black line this
+
+416
+00:37:21,180 --> 00:37:27,060
+one so it is skewed to the right why it is the
+
+417
+00:37:27,060 --> 00:37:31,670
+right? because it is positive point seventy five
+
+418
+00:37:31,670 --> 00:37:34,690
+look
+
+419
+00:37:34,690 --> 00:37:42,210
+at the look at the this one which is skewed to the
+
+420
+00:37:42,210 --> 00:37:49,130
+left by minus point seventy five the one with the
+
+421
+00:37:49,130 --> 00:37:52,190
+this
+
+422
+00:37:52,190 --> 00:37:56,950
+one which is normal the black one look at the
+
+423
+00:37:56,950 --> 00:38:00,230
+normal one this one
+
+424
+00:38:03,810 --> 00:38:18,250
+لأ هذا اللي .. انظر لهذا اللي اللي أحمر
+
+425
+00:38:18,250 --> 00:38:25,750
+الأن اللي أحمر هو عادى المشاركة لأن الـ skew هي
+
+426
+00:38:25,750 --> 00:38:30,450
+زيرو لأن ال skew تبعتها إيه؟ زيرو، حسنا؟
+
+427
+00:38:41,860 --> 00:38:45,820
+تطلعوا على ال tails تبعت ال .. تطلعوا ال .. ال
+
+428
+00:38:45,820 --> 00:38:51,480
+tails تبعت الكورتوسيز it has a fat tail fat tail
+
+429
+00:38:51,480 --> 00:38:57,100
+okay عندهم fat tail ال data is concentrated in the
+
+430
+00:38:57,100 --> 00:39:06,020
+top و اتطلعوا ال tail مابيعملش touch مع ال .. شوف
+
+431
+00:39:06,020 --> 00:39:08,980
+ال tail هذا كيف شكله okay اللقاء اللي جاي ان شاء
+
+432
+00:39:08,980 --> 00:39:10,040
+الله بنكمل الكلام هذا
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/a8rBMzpxgGc_postprocess.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/a8rBMzpxgGc_postprocess.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..dff51bd7d76881f32cd2feba497972c4a1d2d3c6
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/a8rBMzpxgGc_postprocess.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1208 @@
+1
+00:00:21,800 --> 00:00:24,640
+المحاضرة اللي فاتت احنا حكينا عن ال syllabus تبع
+
+2
+00:00:24,640 --> 00:00:27,880
+المادة and what you have to do in the .. during
+
+3
+00:00:27,880 --> 00:00:33,160
+the class okay وشوفنا مع بعض how to download the
+
+4
+00:00:33,160 --> 00:00:36,860
+chapters and syllabus from the website طبعا هلأ
+
+5
+00:00:36,860 --> 00:00:41,460
+بدنا نحكي عن ال chapter one ال chapter one بيحكي
+
+6
+00:00:41,460 --> 00:00:43,380
+عن ال investment environment اللي هو بيئة
+
+7
+00:00:43,380 --> 00:00:47,500
+الاستثمار بيئة الاستثمار بتغطي ثلاث مواضيع أساسية
+
+8
+00:00:47,500 --> 00:00:51,420
+قبل ما ندخل بالتفاصيلالموضوع الأول what it means
+
+9
+00:00:51,420 --> 00:00:55,400
+investments which includes financial assets and
+
+10
+00:00:55,400 --> 00:00:58,320
+real assets بدنا نفرخ بين ال financial asset
+
+11
+00:00:58,320 --> 00:01:02,340
+الأصول المالية و الأصول الحقيقية the relationship
+
+12
+00:01:02,340 --> 00:01:06,880
+between financial markets and economic العلاقة بين
+
+13
+00:01:06,880 --> 00:01:08,780
+ال financial market و ال economics يعني علاقة
+
+14
+00:01:08,780 --> 00:01:12,360
+الأسواق المالية بالاقتصاد okay and we will talk
+
+15
+00:01:12,360 --> 00:01:14,680
+about the regulations of financial markets بعض ال
+
+16
+00:01:14,680 --> 00:01:18,110
+crisis and regulations of the financial marketsif
+
+17
+00:01:18,110 --> 00:01:21,110
+we are not follow up the regulations, what's
+
+18
+00:01:21,110 --> 00:01:22,550
+happening in the financial market؟ إذا احنا ما
+
+19
+00:01:22,550 --> 00:01:25,290
+بنطبخش تعليمات، شو ممكن يصير في ال financial
+
+20
+00:01:25,290 --> 00:01:28,290
+market؟ So first of all what it means investment؟
+
+21
+00:01:28,290 --> 00:01:31,950
+ممكن تعليقنا إيش تفسيرك ل investment؟ هي current
+
+22
+00:01:31,950 --> 00:01:35,010
+commitment of money or other resources in this
+
+23
+00:01:35,010 --> 00:01:40,390
+vision of reaping .. reaping .. reaping .. okay ..
+
+24
+00:01:40,390 --> 00:01:46,300
+okay يعني إنه احنا التخلي عن المنفع حاليةللحصول
+
+25
+00:01:46,300 --> 00:01:51,180
+على عائد في المستقبل مثلا ان انا معايا فلوس الان
+
+26
+00:01:51,180 --> 00:01:55,960
+okay هدول الفلوس بروح أعملهم استثمار فانا اتخلت عن
+
+27
+00:01:55,960 --> 00:02:00,120
+منفعة استخدام الفلوس عشان يجيبولي عائد في المستقبل
+
+28
+00:02:00,120 --> 00:02:05,660
+يعني في المستقبل يجيبولي أرباح معينة أستثمرهم
+
+29
+00:02:05,660 --> 00:02:08,800
+بقطعة أرض وقطعة أرض في المستقبل أروح أبيع في
+
+30
+00:02:08,800 --> 00:02:11,820
+تجيبلي عائد فانا اتخلت عن منفعة حاليا لحصول على
+
+31
+00:02:11,820 --> 00:02:26,190
+منفعة مستقبل هي هذا المعنى الاستثمارOkay لأ
+
+32
+00:02:26,190 --> 00:02:29,850
+exactly
+
+33
+00:02:29,850 --> 00:02:34,070
+يعني مثل ما اتفضلتها لما احنا بنتخلع عن منفعة
+
+34
+00:02:34,070 --> 00:02:39,610
+حالية للحصول على منفعة أكبر في المستقبل إذا بنعدل
+
+35
+00:02:39,610 --> 00:02:44,030
+التعريف مش ف .. بس الحصول to get benefit from the
+
+36
+00:02:44,030 --> 00:02:49,340
+futurereturn is to maximize the future return ان
+
+37
+00:02:49,340 --> 00:02:52,920
+احنا نعظم المنفع المستقبلي يعني انا مثلا معايا الف
+
+38
+00:02:52,920 --> 00:02:58,120
+دولار اليوم اشتريت فيهم أصول هذه الأصول انا اتخلت
+
+39
+00:02:58,120 --> 00:03:02,540
+عن الف دولار ممكن اروح اكل فيهم ممكن اشتري شغلات
+
+40
+00:03:02,540 --> 00:03:05,600
+انا استخدمها لكن اتخلت فيهم عشان استثمر واشتريت
+
+41
+00:03:05,600 --> 00:03:10,380
+مثلا قطعة أرض او اشتريت أسهم في المستقبل هيجيني
+
+42
+00:03:10,380 --> 00:03:14,680
+عائد هذا العائد متوقع يكون أكبر من قيمة الف دولار
+
+43
+00:03:15,660 --> 00:03:21,680
+فهذا هو تعريف الاستثمار ال investment
+
+44
+00:03:21,680 --> 00:03:24,280
+environment ال environment هي البيئة المحيطة
+
+45
+00:03:24,280 --> 00:03:27,420
+بالاستثمار ال regulations الأدوات المالية اللي
+
+46
+00:03:27,420 --> 00:03:34,060
+احنا بنستثمر فيها التعليمات الحكومية اللي بتخلينا
+
+47
+00:03:34,060 --> 00:03:38,900
+نتنظم عملية الاستثمار أهم
+
+48
+00:03:38,900 --> 00:03:44,420
+عوامل في بيئة الاستثمار is to understandthe real
+
+49
+00:03:44,420 --> 00:03:48,500
+assets versus financial assets لازم نفهم شو الفرق
+
+50
+00:03:48,500 --> 00:03:51,900
+بين ال real assets و بين ال financial assets شو
+
+51
+00:03:51,900 --> 00:03:55,920
+معنى ال real assets أصول حقيقية أعطوني مثال عن
+
+52
+00:03:55,920 --> 00:04:03,640
+أصول حقيقية أرض مظبوط مباني machines equipments
+
+53
+00:04:03,640 --> 00:04:10,980
+ممكن إذا صنعناها صح؟البنات اللي وراها .. إيش
+
+54
+00:04:10,980 --> 00:04:17,620
+رأيكم؟ سيارات صح؟ أرضي
+
+55
+00:04:17,620 --> 00:04:26,600
+.. lands ممكن بس مش دقيق كتير okay ممكن مش دقيق
+
+56
+00:04:26,600 --> 00:04:32,430
+يعني هي أشياء it's helpال knowledge .. إيش ال
+
+57
+00:04:32,430 --> 00:04:37,910
+knowledge؟ كيف .. كيف ننقصها هذه ال knowledge؟ عن
+
+58
+00:04:37,910 --> 00:04:42,590
+مين موجودة ال knowledge هذه؟ ايوة بالظبط ال
+
+59
+00:04:42,590 --> 00:04:46,590
+knowledge .. ال knowledge is considered as a real
+
+60
+00:04:46,590 --> 00:04:51,130
+asset وهذه بيسموها بال .. بال .. بال accounting
+
+61
+00:04:51,130 --> 00:04:55,270
+intellectual property اسمها إيش؟ intellectual
+
+62
+00:04:55,270 --> 00:04:59,090
+property اللي هو حقوق الملكية و حقوق الفكريةهذه
+
+63
+00:04:59,090 --> 00:05:02,330
+بنعتبرها real assets sometimes .. sometimes you
+
+64
+00:05:02,330 --> 00:05:06,070
+get confused between what is real asset and what
+
+65
+00:05:06,070 --> 00:05:09,650
+is financial asset في بعض الناس بيفكروا ال
+
+66
+00:05:09,650 --> 00:05:12,570
+financial .. ال real asset هي ال .. is to be
+
+67
+00:05:12,570 --> 00:05:18,470
+touched اللي احنا بنلمسها لأ مش هذه تعريفها مش هي
+
+68
+00:05:18,470 --> 00:05:22,650
+يعني ممكن ال copyright تكون .. تكون real asset ال
+
+69
+00:05:22,650 --> 00:05:25,450
+knowledge ال intellectual property ك .. احنا ممكن
+
+70
+00:05:25,450 --> 00:05:32,420
+نمسك ال knowledgeوبالتالي هذه real assets ال real
+
+71
+00:05:32,420 --> 00:05:36,020
+assets زي ما احنا هنيجي نعرفها تتعمل ل productive
+
+72
+00:05:36,020 --> 00:05:40,540
+capacity and net income of the economy من هذه ال
+
+73
+00:05:40,540 --> 00:05:44,640
+real assets الدخل
+
+74
+00:05:44,640 --> 00:05:47,620
+الحقيقي للاقتصاد بييجي يعني الاقتصاد من وين
+
+75
+00:05:47,620 --> 00:05:51,780
+بيستفيد؟ بيستفيد من ال real assets وليس من ال
+
+76
+00:05:51,780 --> 00:05:56,730
+financial assetsالاقتصاد ليش؟ ال equipments ايش
+
+77
+00:05:56,730 --> 00:06:02,030
+بتطلعلي؟ ال equipments و ال machines بتطلعلي سلع و
+
+78
+00:06:02,030 --> 00:06:05,350
+بنروح هذه السلع بنبيعها و بالتالي بيصير عندى
+
+79
+00:06:05,350 --> 00:06:08,690
+income اذا هذه ال machines produce goods and
+
+80
+00:06:08,690 --> 00:06:12,590
+services then we sell these goods and services and
+
+81
+00:06:12,590 --> 00:06:16,630
+we get income so the economy is get benefited from
+
+82
+00:06:16,630 --> 00:06:21,630
+using the fixed asset يعني الاقتصاد بيستفيد من ال
+
+83
+00:06:21,630 --> 00:06:25,970
+fixed assetOkay؟ So the term is the productive
+
+84
+00:06:25,970 --> 00:06:30,350
+capacity ممكنية الإنتاج and net income of the
+
+85
+00:06:30,350 --> 00:06:35,510
+economy يعني بتعمل شغلتين تنتج وتجيب لإيراد هذا
+
+86
+00:06:35,510 --> 00:06:38,310
+بالنسبة لإيش ال real asset إذا إحنا طبقنا الكلام
+
+87
+00:06:38,310 --> 00:06:41,650
+هذا بنقدر نقول هذا real asset أو not real asset
+
+88
+00:06:41,650 --> 00:06:48,110
+واضح الكلام هذا؟ إذا واضح إنه real asset إذا ال
+
+89
+00:06:48,110 --> 00:06:51,110
+real asset مش بس machines مش بس equipments ممكن
+
+90
+00:06:51,110 --> 00:06:52,710
+تكون شغلات تانية هنسأل فيها كم شوية
+
+91
+00:06:56,410 --> 00:07:00,090
+أمثلة اللي انتوا حاكيتوها lands, buildings,
+
+92
+00:07:00,210 --> 00:07:02,270
+machines, knowledge used to produce goods and
+
+93
+00:07:02,270 --> 00:07:06,950
+services وفي شغلات تانية احنا we leave it just to
+
+94
+00:07:06,950 --> 00:07:09,930
+examine your understanding يعني في شغلات تانية
+
+95
+00:07:09,930 --> 00:07:15,590
+هنشوف activity فيها تتعرف على new real assets مش
+
+96
+00:07:15,590 --> 00:07:18,830
+واضحة علنا واحنا هنوضحها طب نشوف ال financial
+
+97
+00:07:18,830 --> 00:07:22,230
+assets ال financial assets a claims on real assets
+
+98
+00:07:22,230 --> 00:07:29,680
+في حد بيعرف what it means this؟البنات الجانب هذا
+
+99
+00:07:29,680 --> 00:07:35,140
+بتشتغلوا معانا اه؟ شوفوا اذا اهمية بنات اهميتهم ان
+
+100
+00:07:35,140 --> 00:07:40,680
+انتوا تقرأوا قبل ما تيجوا عشان انا بعرف وين ال ..
+
+101
+00:07:40,680 --> 00:07:42,920
+وين ال .. ال weaknesses point وين ال strength
+
+102
+00:07:42,920 --> 00:07:47,760
+point عندكم وبتعلم ممكن نسهل عملية الشرح اه؟
+
+103
+00:07:52,080 --> 00:07:57,100
+من وين أجدت هذه؟ من النبع من الأصول الحقيقية
+
+104
+00:07:57,100 --> 00:08:02,020
+بالظبط صح يعني ال financial assets are claims on
+
+105
+00:08:02,020 --> 00:08:06,360
+real assets يعني هي التزامات ناتجة عن الأصول
+
+106
+00:08:06,360 --> 00:08:10,740
+الحقيقية يعني مثلا في حد بيقدر يعطيني مثال كيف how
+
+107
+00:08:10,740 --> 00:08:15,400
+the how the financial how the real assets generate
+
+108
+00:08:15,400 --> 00:08:19,480
+financial assets مش هيك claims on real assets it
+
+109
+00:08:19,480 --> 00:08:23,060
+meansthe real assets generate financial assets
+
+110
+00:08:23,060 --> 00:08:27,200
+يعني مين أبو ال financial assets؟ هي ال real
+
+111
+00:08:27,200 --> 00:08:31,740
+assets فإذن the real assets the .. the .. the
+
+112
+00:08:31,740 --> 00:08:35,180
+financial asset is not coming from nothing it is
+
+113
+00:08:35,180 --> 00:08:39,400
+not coming from itself ما إجتش من نفسها it comes
+
+114
+00:08:39,400 --> 00:08:43,960
+from the real assets إجت من ال real assets هعطوني
+
+115
+00:08:43,960 --> 00:08:48,830
+مثال على الكلام هذا اتفضليطب نصنعها نستخدم في
+
+116
+00:08:48,830 --> 00:08:51,730
+إنتاج .. ننتج .. ننتج سلاح لما نبيعها نحصل على
+
+117
+00:08:51,730 --> 00:08:55,290
+الأموال طيب وين ال financial asset اللي اندوالها
+
+118
+00:08:55,290 --> 00:09:02,390
+ده تجديد؟ سيارات؟ لأ مش كتير ال example انت بدأت
+
+119
+00:09:02,390 --> 00:09:08,230
+صح بس بالأخير ما .. وين ال financial asset؟ how ..
+
+120
+00:09:08,230 --> 00:09:12,290
+how the real assets generate financial assets؟
+
+121
+00:09:12,290 --> 00:09:14,550
+اتفضلي الأموال اللي نبتشت في السلاح
+
+122
+00:09:19,040 --> 00:09:23,460
+Okay تقريبا يمكننا نعطي مثال زي ما انت حكيت المثال
+
+123
+00:09:23,460 --> 00:09:29,060
+ايش اسمك اسمها اسمها أعطتنا مثال مثلا اشترينا
+
+124
+00:09:29,060 --> 00:09:36,940
+machines machine آلة هاي الآلة اشتريناها okay
+
+125
+00:09:36,940 --> 00:09:44,240
+هذه ال machine احنا أمامنا خيارين يا أما ندفع cash
+
+126
+00:09:45,580 --> 00:09:54,460
+يا أما ناخد قرض صح؟ machine نشتري آلة يا أما معانا
+
+127
+00:09:54,460 --> 00:09:57,920
+فلوس بجيبتنا بنشتري ال machine يا أما ماعناش فلوس
+
+128
+00:09:57,920 --> 00:10:00,180
+بنروح على البنك الإسلامي و لا بنروح على البنوك هاي
+
+129
+00:10:00,180 --> 00:10:05,420
+و بنروح ناخد قرض أو مرابحة أو .. هذا القرض هو real
+
+130
+00:10:05,420 --> 00:10:09,740
+asset و لا financial asset؟ من وين إجا؟ إجا لأنه
+
+131
+00:10:09,740 --> 00:10:13,540
+اشترينا machine إذا because of using machines
+
+132
+00:10:13,540 --> 00:10:17,650
+because of buying machinesthe machines generate
+
+133
+00:10:17,650 --> 00:10:23,230
+loans هى طلعتلى ال loans وإلا لو احنا مااشترناش
+
+134
+00:10:23,230 --> 00:10:29,150
+machines ليش بيلزم القرض؟ اذا الماكينة هذه لما
+
+135
+00:10:29,150 --> 00:10:35,310
+اشترناها أخدنا قرض عشان نشريها هذا القرض هو عبارة
+
+136
+00:10:35,310 --> 00:10:40,010
+عن financial assets عبارة عن أصول مالية طيب طريقة
+
+137
+00:10:40,010 --> 00:10:52,650
+تانية فضله اه خليني أسمعهاطبعا .. بالظبط ..
+
+138
+00:10:52,650 --> 00:11:01,240
+صح .. تاخد قرد او تطرح حياتهم .. بالظبط ..buying
+
+139
+00:11:01,240 --> 00:11:06,260
+the land or building or starting of a project need
+
+140
+00:11:06,260 --> 00:11:11,740
+to issue shares or bonds or loans فلأن أن أنت بدك
+
+141
+00:11:11,740 --> 00:11:15,640
+تشتري الأرض و تعمل مشروع فبدك تضطري تطرحي أسهم بدك
+
+142
+00:11:15,640 --> 00:11:19,540
+تضطري تطرحي سندات أو تاخدي قرض فهدول اللي عملوه ي
+
+143
+00:11:19,540 --> 00:11:22,580
+generate لإيش؟ ل financial assets طب نيجي نسأل
+
+144
+00:11:22,580 --> 00:11:25,980
+السؤال ال income الحقيقي بيجي من وين؟ من ال real
+
+145
+00:11:25,980 --> 00:11:29,000
+assets ولا من ال financial assets؟ من ال real
+
+146
+00:11:29,000 --> 00:11:34,450
+assetsإذا الحقيقة هيجي من وين؟ أنا أصلا كانت Indie
+
+147
+00:11:34,450 --> 00:11:38,610
+Art بالظبط من ال real asset لأن ال real asset انت
+
+148
+00:11:38,610 --> 00:11:41,530
+هتعمل المصنع و ال machines producing goods and
+
+149
+00:11:41,530 --> 00:11:45,230
+services و ال goods and services will be sold in
+
+150
+00:11:45,230 --> 00:11:48,950
+the markets so it generates income and the income
+
+151
+00:11:48,950 --> 00:11:53,650
+recover ال loans شفتوا كيف ال cycle هتمشي؟ يعني
+
+152
+00:11:53,650 --> 00:11:56,970
+هذه ال machines اللي احنا اشتريناهاهتعمل producing
+
+153
+00:11:56,970 --> 00:12:00,530
+لإيش؟ ل goods and services ال goods and services
+
+154
+00:12:00,530 --> 00:12:04,410
+نعملها صالب في السوق بتعملني income ال income
+
+155
+00:12:04,410 --> 00:12:09,990
+بيسكبلي ال loans who generates the income؟ the
+
+156
+00:12:09,990 --> 00:12:19,010
+real assets فضل claims on real
+
+157
+00:12:19,010 --> 00:12:24,020
+assets التزامات على الأصول الثابتةمثلها ده اه انا
+
+158
+00:12:24,020 --> 00:12:28,380
+برأي انه ال real assets claim on financial يعني ال
+
+159
+00:12:28,380 --> 00:12:31,840
+real asset هي اللي بتسدد ال .. اه لإنه جد لإن ال
+
+160
+00:12:31,840 --> 00:12:34,620
+financial احنا أخدنا قرض و بتفتحلي القرض هو
+
+161
+00:12:34,620 --> 00:12:38,400
+financial asset و شرينا منك يعني القرض أعلى،
+
+162
+00:12:38,400 --> 00:12:40,420
+الأعلى هي ال real asset دي بقى و مين اللي بيبقى
+
+163
+00:12:40,420 --> 00:12:44,440
+عالمي okay هلا بنيجي ال .. ال machines هي اللي
+
+164
+00:12:44,440 --> 00:12:48,640
+producing the goods and services ولا القرض طب
+
+165
+00:12:48,640 --> 00:12:52,480
+خلينا ناخد .. بدناش machinesو نحكي للقارد please
+
+166
+00:12:52,480 --> 00:12:58,020
+generate goods and services we can do it we cannot
+
+167
+00:12:58,020 --> 00:13:03,260
+do it because loans cannot create income ال loans
+
+168
+00:13:03,260 --> 00:13:08,540
+مابيعطونيش income a real income هاي بيعطي interest
+
+169
+00:13:08,540 --> 00:13:15,940
+interest as a compensation of the utility هو نتيجة
+
+170
+00:13:15,940 --> 00:13:25,040
+عنتعويض للمنفع المستقبلية و ليس بسبب استخدامنا لل
+
+171
+00:13:25,040 --> 00:13:28,940
+machines طيب إذا ال machines اللي اشتريناها هي
+
+172
+00:13:28,940 --> 00:13:32,340
+اللي هتعملني goods and services و بعدين احنا هنغطي
+
+173
+00:13:32,340 --> 00:13:37,040
+ال loans و and the cycle is going in this way لأن
+
+174
+00:13:37,040 --> 00:13:42,460
+احنا لو حاجت لأن مش عايشة أكتر .. بالظبط .. that's
+
+175
+00:13:42,460 --> 00:13:46,480
+itيعني both of you are right يعني انتوا التنين
+
+176
+00:13:46,480 --> 00:13:51,860
+صحيح انه ال .. the .. the fixed assets generate a
+
+177
+00:13:51,860 --> 00:13:56,620
+real .. a real income بس هاي ال loans is a
+
+178
+00:13:56,620 --> 00:14:00,160
+compensation لأن احنا هندفع بالloan شغلتان او في
+
+179
+00:14:00,160 --> 00:14:04,420
+المرابحة هندفع شغلتان هندفع اللي هو ال .. ال ..
+
+180
+00:14:04,420 --> 00:14:08,360
+the value of .. of .. of .. of loan plus the
+
+181
+00:14:08,360 --> 00:14:13,420
+interestال interest why the interest is the
+
+182
+00:14:13,420 --> 00:14:16,640
+compensation for investors احنا بنعوضهم لأنهم
+
+183
+00:14:16,640 --> 00:14:21,640
+اتنازلوا عن المنفع الحالية لمنطقة مستخبرية بس بس
+
+184
+00:14:21,640 --> 00:14:26,440
+ال machines هي الأساس اللي هتعطيني ال generate the
+
+185
+00:14:26,440 --> 00:14:33,360
+income and if this if the machine stop working it
+
+186
+00:14:33,360 --> 00:14:37,730
+means we cannot pay back the loansنقدرش احنا
+
+187
+00:14:37,730 --> 00:14:41,290
+هنسيبنا ال loans اذا مين بيعمل generation لل
+
+188
+00:14:41,290 --> 00:14:48,610
+income؟ if the real assets stop working مش
+
+189
+00:14:48,610 --> 00:14:52,650
+هنقدر نعمل و زي ما صار بال mortgages مش هندخل فيها
+
+190
+00:14:52,650 --> 00:14:58,750
+لما نيجي نحكي في الموضوع تبعها okay؟
+
+191
+00:14:58,750 --> 00:15:00,730
+في حد عنده سؤال what is the difference between
+
+192
+00:15:00,730 --> 00:15:03,810
+real assets and financial assets؟ exam is of
+
+193
+00:15:03,810 --> 00:15:07,100
+financial assetsأمثلة على ال financial assets
+
+194
+00:15:07,100 --> 00:15:16,060
+bonds loans stocks أسهم ايش فيه كمان treasure
+
+195
+00:15:16,060 --> 00:15:20,200
+bills CDs we have thousands of financial assets
+
+196
+00:15:20,200 --> 00:15:24,060
+هيكون في عندي chapter كامل بس بيعمللي listing لهذه
+
+197
+00:15:24,060 --> 00:15:29,060
+ال financial assets okay نيجي على ال financial
+
+198
+00:15:29,060 --> 00:15:33,440
+assets three types there are three main types of
+
+199
+00:15:33,440 --> 00:15:36,900
+financial assetsثلاث أنواع أساسية لل financial
+
+200
+00:15:36,900 --> 00:15:43,660
+assets okay fixed income or debts في financial
+
+201
+00:15:43,660 --> 00:15:54,060
+asset بتعطيني fixed income ثابت عائد ثابت طبعا حد
+
+202
+00:15:54,060 --> 00:15:58,500
+يعطيني مثال على financial asset بتعطيني عائد ثابت
+
+203
+00:15:58,500 --> 00:16:08,840
+زي إيش السندات صح القروض صحالأسهم ممتازة صح، إذا
+
+204
+00:16:08,840 --> 00:16:12,820
+هاي عندنا ال bonds, preferred stocks و ال loans,
+
+205
+00:16:13,460 --> 00:16:18,040
+treasury bills, CDs كلهم هدول بيعطوني ايه؟ بيعطوني
+
+206
+00:16:18,040 --> 00:16:24,240
+fixed income لكن في مشاكل إن احنا نحصل على fixed
+
+207
+00:16:24,240 --> 00:16:28,260
+income okay
+
+208
+00:16:28,260 --> 00:16:33,520
+هنيجي نحكي في الموضوعالنوع التاني ال common stocks
+
+209
+00:16:33,520 --> 00:16:37,700
+common stock or equity ال common stock or equity
+
+210
+00:16:37,700 --> 00:16:44,620
+اللي هو الأسهم العادية أو حقوق الملكية يعني
+
+211
+00:16:44,620 --> 00:16:46,780
+في ناس بيسموها common stock و في ناس بيسموها
+
+212
+00:16:46,780 --> 00:16:51,730
+equityلأنه ممكن ندخل ال dividends عارفين الأسهم
+
+213
+00:16:51,730 --> 00:16:54,770
+العادية طبعا بال financial management أخدتوا انتوا
+
+214
+00:16:54,770 --> 00:16:57,030
+what it means common stock what is the difference
+
+215
+00:16:57,030 --> 00:16:59,290
+between common stock and preferred stocks الفروقات
+
+216
+00:16:59,290 --> 00:17:01,830
+بين ال common stock و ال preferred stocks واضحة
+
+217
+00:17:01,830 --> 00:17:08,750
+عندكم؟ okay derivative securities هاد الموضوع شوية
+
+218
+00:17:08,750 --> 00:17:12,090
+في حد سمع بال derivative securities قبل هك؟
+
+219
+00:17:15,960 --> 00:17:18,820
+الأوراق المالية هي ال high financial asset الأوراق
+
+220
+00:17:18,820 --> 00:17:24,100
+المالية derivatives مشتقات اسمها مشتقات what is
+
+221
+00:17:24,100 --> 00:17:27,420
+the story of derivatives؟ شو هي ال derivatives؟
+
+222
+00:17:27,420 --> 00:17:30,740
+and from where the derivatives come from؟ من وين
+
+223
+00:17:30,740 --> 00:17:34,800
+إجت ال derivatives؟
+
+224
+00:17:34,800 --> 00:17:43,840
+بسيطة احنا خلينا نبدأ ال story من بدايتهاwe agree
+
+225
+00:17:43,840 --> 00:17:50,060
+that real assets generate financial assets، مظبوط؟
+
+226
+00:17:50,060 --> 00:17:55,240
+اذا real assets generate
+
+227
+00:17:55,240 --> 00:17:58,480
+financial assets، abbreviation for financial
+
+228
+00:17:58,480 --> 00:18:05,680
+assets okay financial assets generate derivatives
+
+229
+00:18:05,680 --> 00:18:10,280
+what
+
+230
+00:18:10,280 --> 00:18:16,070
+it means derivativesمشتقات it means derivatives is
+
+231
+00:18:16,070 --> 00:18:21,130
+derived from the prices of financial assets يعني
+
+232
+00:18:21,130 --> 00:18:23,650
+ال derivatives هي مشتقة من أسعار ال financial
+
+233
+00:18:23,650 --> 00:18:31,410
+assets so the investors and derivatives drive
+
+234
+00:18:31,410 --> 00:18:35,950
+transactions or drive investments on the prices of
+
+235
+00:18:35,950 --> 00:18:39,950
+financial assets how it comes؟ كيف هذا الكلام
+
+236
+00:18:39,950 --> 00:18:47,170
+بيصير؟مثال بسيط derivatives includes three types
+
+237
+00:18:47,170 --> 00:18:52,570
+option future
+
+238
+00:18:52,570 --> 00:19:04,330
+and swap okay let's take example of the option and
+
+239
+00:19:04,330 --> 00:19:06,850
+how the option is derived from the financial
+
+240
+00:19:06,850 --> 00:19:13,010
+assetsas we agree before the common stock is one
+
+241
+00:19:13,010 --> 00:19:14,930
+of the financial assets واحدة من ال financial
+
+242
+00:19:14,930 --> 00:19:20,430
+assets okay اذا هاي stock هاي financial assets هلا
+
+243
+00:19:20,430 --> 00:19:25,690
+بنعمل drive ل financial ل derivatives ناخد ال
+
+244
+00:19:25,690 --> 00:19:31,170
+option سعر ال stock في السوق نفترض عشرين دولار
+
+245
+00:19:31,170 --> 00:19:36,100
+سعره في السوق عشرين دولارإذا نعيد تعريف ال
+
+246
+00:19:36,100 --> 00:19:39,480
+derivatives is derived from the prices of the
+
+247
+00:19:39,480 --> 00:19:43,940
+financial assets بس احنا موضوعنا بس ل prices بيجي
+
+248
+00:19:43,940 --> 00:19:48,960
+واحد من المستثمرين بيحكي انه انا بدي أشري السهم
+
+249
+00:19:48,960 --> 00:19:55,300
+هذا بعد تلت شهور بدي أشري بعد تلت شهور طيب بعد تلت
+
+250
+00:19:55,300 --> 00:20:02,980
+شهور احتمال السعر يطلع واحتمال ينزل فعشان
+
+251
+00:20:02,980 --> 00:20:06,540
+هومايصيرش عنده مشكلة في الاستثمار بروح على
+
+252
+00:20:06,540 --> 00:20:10,260
+derivatives derivatives derivatives بتسهل له عملية
+
+253
+00:20:10,260 --> 00:20:15,460
+fixing the price بتعمله ايش fixing the price تثبيت
+
+254
+00:20:15,460 --> 00:20:21,340
+السعر تثبيت السعر مقابل premium مقابل ايش premium
+
+255
+00:20:21,340 --> 00:20:25,060
+يعني علاوة بروح بيحكوا لهم okay السعر الآن عشرين
+
+256
+00:20:25,060 --> 00:20:29,100
+دولار انا بدي اثبت السعر لانه بدي اشري هذا السهم
+
+257
+00:20:29,100 --> 00:20:34,380
+بعد تلات شهورفبقولوا له okay بتدفع two dollar هدول
+
+258
+00:20:34,380 --> 00:20:38,600
+ال premium هو هيدفع فقط two dollar مش هيدفع عشرين
+
+259
+00:20:38,600 --> 00:20:45,720
+والعشرين مدى هيدفعهم بعد تلات شغل مادفع
+
+260
+00:20:45,720 --> 00:20:51,420
+عشان ساعتين وعشرين دفع كام بالظبط كلامك صح طيب هلأ
+
+261
+00:20:51,420 --> 00:20:55,880
+ناخد احتمالين ناخد two option this is why this is
+
+262
+00:20:55,880 --> 00:21:00,210
+optionالفرص الأولى هو أن السعر يزال يزال يزال يزال
+
+263
+00:21:00,210 --> 00:21:03,030
+يزال يزال يزال يزال يزال يزال يزال يزال يزال يزال
+
+264
+00:21:03,030 --> 00:21:07,790
+يزال يزال يزال يزال يزال يزال يزال يزال يزل يزل
+
+265
+00:21:07,790 --> 00:21:13,990
+يزل يزل يزل يزل يزل يزل
+
+266
+00:21:13,990 --> 00:21:14,790
+يزل يزل يزل يزل يزل يزل يزل يزل يزل يزل يزل يزل
+
+267
+00:21:14,790 --> 00:21:14,850
+يزل يزل يزل يزل يزل يزل يزل يزل يزل يزل يزل يزل
+
+268
+00:21:14,850 --> 00:21:23,590
+يزل يزل يزل يزل يز
+
+269
+00:21:23,680 --> 00:21:28,160
+and he or she saw the price twenty five شو راح
+
+270
+00:21:28,160 --> 00:21:34,040
+يسوي ال investors في الحالة الأولى هو ثبته على
+
+271
+00:21:34,040 --> 00:21:37,880
+عشرين هيدفع ال premium two دولار وسعره في السوق
+
+272
+00:21:37,880 --> 00:21:40,880
+خمسة و عشرين دولار شو راح يسوي ال investors هيدفع
+
+273
+00:21:40,880 --> 00:21:44,300
+عشرين و two premium هدفع اتنين و عشرين المستثمر
+
+274
+00:21:44,300 --> 00:21:49,980
+كام ربح تلاتة دولار في ال case الأولى three
+
+275
+00:21:49,980 --> 00:21:50,400
+dollars
+
+276
+00:21:53,040 --> 00:21:57,640
+أه هلا احنا في عندنا ثبتنا السعر عشرين في premium
+
+277
+00:21:57,640 --> 00:22:00,880
+العربون احنا بالعربي بنسميها عربون صح؟ يعني انت
+
+278
+00:22:00,880 --> 00:22:03,960
+بدك تشروح تشتري بيت و ماعاكيش فلوس فبتقول رجال خد
+
+279
+00:22:03,960 --> 00:22:07,080
+هاي عربون و انا بعد تلات شهور هابعتلك الفلوس اذا
+
+280
+00:22:07,080 --> 00:22:12,620
+ماجبت ال cash الفلوس بروح علياش العربون فهما كيف
+
+281
+00:22:12,620 --> 00:22:17,740
+يعني هاي مثال بالان بالبلد طيب هلا نيجي ال ..
+
+282
+00:22:17,740 --> 00:22:23,850
+السعر خمسة و عشرين دولارفى ال $2 هدفعه من عربون و
+
+283
+00:22:23,850 --> 00:22:29,190
+$20 فصاروا 22 المفروض بدون ادفع في السوق سعر السهم
+
+284
+00:22:29,190 --> 00:22:34,570
+او سعر السهم 25$ فهم ثبته يعني ثبت سعره خلاص بدفع
+
+285
+00:22:34,570 --> 00:22:38,270
+ال 20 و ال $2 premium هي 22 لو حابب ببيعه في نفس
+
+286
+00:22:38,270 --> 00:22:44,030
+اللحظة بعمل 3$ في كل سهم واضح طيب هلأ ناخد ال
+
+287
+00:22:44,030 --> 00:22:49,050
+opposite ناخد العكس ناخد العكس لو سعر السهم نزل ل
+
+288
+00:22:49,050 --> 00:22:57,140
+16مين يقول لي إيش هيسوي المستثمر؟ هيدفع
+
+289
+00:22:57,140 --> 00:23:02,040
+عشرين هيدفع عشرين؟ هيدفع اتنين و عشرين؟ لأ مش
+
+290
+00:23:02,040 --> 00:23:06,960
+هيدفع .. هيدفع .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ
+
+291
+00:23:06,960 --> 00:23:07,300
+.. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ ..
+
+292
+00:23:07,300 --> 00:23:08,080
+لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ
+
+293
+00:23:08,080 --> 00:23:16,780
+لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ .. لأ
+
+294
+00:23:16,780 --> 00:23:20,140
+.. لأ
+
+295
+00:23:22,460 --> 00:23:28,780
+أه بيكون كلفته عليه 18 شفتوا كيف صارت ال .. لأنه
+
+296
+00:23:28,780 --> 00:23:33,300
+السوق 16 فبقولك ليش انا طبعا ليش هذه derivatives
+
+297
+00:23:33,300 --> 00:23:37,920
+احنا بنستخدمها هذه بنستخدمها بتقرأوا الكلام هذا من
+
+298
+00:23:37,920 --> 00:23:42,560
+ال chapter and you answer me in next meeting why
+
+299
+00:23:42,560 --> 00:23:48,420
+we use derivatives why investors using derivatives
+
+300
+00:23:48,420 --> 00:23:52,580
+موجودة عندكم الإجابة في الكتابOkay so next meeting
+
+301
+00:23:52,580 --> 00:23:56,080
+inshallah we will start our class by answering
+
+302
+00:23:56,080 --> 00:23:59,480
+this one okay any question?
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/a8rBMzpxgGc_raw.json b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/a8rBMzpxgGc_raw.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..e87db07782eb3b198234def6a1447cfb5f568a9f
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/a8rBMzpxgGc_raw.json
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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77.81, "end": 104.79, "text": "if we are not follow up the regulations, what's happening in the financial market؟ إذا احنا ما بنطبخش تعليمات، شو ممكن يصير في ال financial market؟ So first of all what it means investment؟ ممكن تعليقنا إيش تفسيرك ل investment؟ هي current commitment of money or other resources in this vision of reaping .. reaping .. reaping .. okay .. okay يعني إنه احنا التخلي عن المنفع حالية", "tokens": [351, 321, 366, 406, 1524, 493, 264, 12563, 11, 437, 311, 2737, 294, 264, 4669, 2142, 22807, 11933, 15730, 1975, 5016, 8315, 19446, 44945, 9566, 3555, 9778, 8592, 37279, 20292, 2304, 9307, 12399, 13412, 2407, 3714, 43020, 7251, 9381, 13546, 8978, 2423, 4669, 2142, 22807, 407, 700, 295, 439, 437, 309, 1355, 6078, 22807, 3714, 43020, 37279, 20292, 4587, 8315, 11933, 1829, 8592, 6055, 36178, 13546, 4117, 5296, 6078, 22807, 39896, 2190, 8371, 295, 1460, 420, 661, 3593, 294, 341, 5201, 295, 39178, 278, 4386, 39178, 278, 4386, 39178, 278, 4386, 1392, 4386, 1392, 37495, 22653, 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a", "probability": 0.2471923828125}, {"start": 441.05, "end": 441.33, "word": " claims", "probability": 0.6689453125}, {"start": 441.33, "end": 441.55, "word": " on", "probability": 0.93994140625}, {"start": 441.55, "end": 441.77, "word": " real", "probability": 0.92724609375}, {"start": 441.77, "end": 442.23, "word": " assets", "probability": 0.89013671875}, {"start": 442.23, "end": 443.79, "word": " في", "probability": 0.6240234375}, {"start": 443.79, "end": 444.07, "word": " حد", "probability": 0.9765625}, {"start": 444.07, "end": 444.73, "word": " بيعرف", "probability": 0.7721354166666666}, {"start": 444.73, "end": 444.89, "word": " what", "probability": 0.96142578125}, {"start": 444.89, "end": 445.01, "word": " it", "probability": 0.90478515625}, {"start": 445.01, "end": 445.23, "word": " means", "probability": 0.93994140625}, {"start": 445.23, "end": 445.67, "word": " this؟", "probability": 0.751220703125}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 16, "seek": 46776, "start": 447.82, "end": 467.76, "text": "البنات الجانب هذا بتشتغلوا معانا اه؟ شوفوا اذا اهمية بنات اهميتهم ان انتوا تقرأوا قبل ما تيجوا عشان انا بعرف وين ال .. وين ال .. ال weaknesses point وين ال strength point عندكم وبتعلم ممكن نسهل عملية الشرح اه؟", "tokens": [6027, 3555, 8315, 2655, 25724, 7649, 3555, 23758, 39894, 8592, 2655, 17082, 1211, 14407, 20449, 7649, 995, 1975, 3224, 22807, 13412, 38688, 14407, 1975, 15730, 1975, 16095, 10632, 4724, 8315, 2655, 1975, 16095, 36081, 16095, 16472, 16472, 2655, 14407, 6055, 4587, 2288, 10721, 14407, 12174, 36150, 19446, 6055, 1829, 7435, 14407, 6225, 8592, 7649, 1975, 8315, 45030, 28480, 4032, 9957, 2423, 4386, 4032, 9957, 2423, 4386, 2423, 24381, 935, 4032, 9957, 2423, 3800, 935, 43242, 24793, 46599, 2655, 3615, 19528, 3714, 43020, 8717, 3794, 3224, 1211, 6225, 42213, 10632, 25124, 2288, 5016, 1975, 3224, 22807], "avg_logprob": -0.17805988900363445, "compression_ratio": 1.70935960591133, "no_speech_prob": 2.384185791015625e-07, "words": [{"start": 447.82, "end": 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{"start": 488.76, "end": 489.06, "word": " يعطيني", "probability": 0.7783203125}, {"start": 489.06, "end": 489.44, "word": " مثال", "probability": 0.94482421875}, {"start": 489.44, "end": 490.1, "word": " كيف", "probability": 0.90185546875}, {"start": 490.1, "end": 490.74, "word": " how", "probability": 0.591796875}, {"start": 490.74, "end": 491.02, "word": " the", "probability": 0.76318359375}, {"start": 491.02, "end": 491.88, "word": " how", "probability": 0.302978515625}, {"start": 491.88, "end": 492.06, "word": " the", "probability": 0.87109375}, {"start": 492.06, "end": 492.54, "word": " financial", "probability": 0.65478515625}, {"start": 492.54, "end": 493.06, "word": " how", "probability": 0.69140625}, {"start": 493.06, "end": 493.42, "word": " the", "probability": 0.89453125}, {"start": 493.42, "end": 494.2, "word": " real", "probability": 0.8857421875}, {"start": 494.2, "end": 494.66, "word": " assets", "probability": 0.880859375}, {"start": 494.66, "end": 495.4, "word": " generate", "probability": 0.90673828125}, {"start": 495.4, "end": 496.02, "word": " financial", "probability": 0.9033203125}, {"start": 496.02, "end": 496.48, "word": " assets", "probability": 0.89990234375}, {"start": 496.48, "end": 496.98, "word": " مش", "probability": 0.92626953125}, {"start": 496.98, "end": 497.68, "word": " هيك", "probability": 0.953369140625}, {"start": 497.68, "end": 498.38, "word": " claims", "probability": 0.412841796875}, {"start": 498.38, "end": 498.76, "word": " on", "probability": 0.95361328125}, {"start": 498.76, "end": 499.02, "word": " real", "probability": 0.88330078125}, {"start": 499.02, "end": 499.3, "word": " assets", "probability": 0.78759765625}, {"start": 499.3, "end": 499.48, "word": " it", "probability": 0.91943359375}, {"start": 499.48, "end": 499.92, "word": " means", "probability": 0.9345703125}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 18, "seek": 52524, "start": 500.76, "end": 525.24, "text": "the real assets generate financial assets يعني مين أبو ال financial assets؟ هي ال real assets فإذن the real assets the .. the .. the financial asset is not coming from nothing it is not coming from itself ما إجتش من نفسها it comes from the real assets إجت من ال real assets هعطوني مثال على الكلام هذا اتفضلي", "tokens": [3322, 957, 9769, 8460, 4669, 9769, 37495, 22653, 3714, 9957, 5551, 3555, 2407, 2423, 4669, 9769, 22807, 39896, 2423, 957, 9769, 6156, 28814, 8848, 1863, 264, 957, 9769, 264, 4386, 264, 4386, 264, 4669, 11999, 307, 406, 1348, 490, 1825, 309, 307, 406, 1348, 490, 2564, 19446, 11933, 7435, 2655, 8592, 9154, 8717, 36178, 11296, 309, 1487, 490, 264, 957, 9769, 11933, 7435, 2655, 9154, 2423, 957, 9769, 8032, 3615, 9566, 11536, 1829, 50113, 6027, 15844, 2423, 28820, 10943, 23758, 1975, 2655, 5172, 11242, 20292], "avg_logprob": -0.2192950551939565, "compression_ratio": 1.8894472361809045, "no_speech_prob": 5.960464477539063e-08, "words": [{"start": 500.76, "end": 500.94, "word": "the", "probability": 0.467041015625}, {"start": 500.94, 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machines generate loans هى طلعتلى ال loans وإلا لو احنا مااشترناش machines ليش بيلزم القرض؟ اذا الماكينة هذه لما اشترناها أخدنا قرض عشان نشريها هذا القرض هو عبارة عن financial assets عبارة عن أصول مالية طيب طريقة تانية فضله اه خليني أسمعها", "tokens": [3322, 8379, 8460, 15443, 8032, 7578, 23032, 1211, 34268, 23942, 2423, 15443, 4032, 28814, 15040, 45164, 1975, 5016, 8315, 19446, 33599, 2655, 2288, 8315, 8592, 8379, 32239, 8592, 4724, 26895, 11622, 2304, 25062, 43042, 22807, 1975, 15730, 9673, 995, 4117, 9957, 3660, 29538, 5296, 15042, 1975, 8592, 2655, 2288, 8315, 11296, 5551, 9778, 3215, 8315, 12174, 43042, 6225, 8592, 7649, 8717, 8592, 16572, 11296, 23758, 25062, 43042, 31439, 6225, 3555, 9640, 3660, 18871, 4669, 9769, 6225, 3555, 9640, 3660, 18871, 5551, 9381, 12610, 3714, 6027, 10632, 23032, 1829, 3555, 23032, 16572, 28671, 6055, 7649, 10632, 6156, 11242, 1211, 3224, 1975, 3224, 16490, 1211, 9957, 1829, 5551, 38251, 3615, 11296], "avg_logprob": -0.20468749823895369, 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"end": 656.27, "word": " حياتهم", "probability": 0.68768310546875}, {"start": 656.27, "end": 657.41, "word": " ..", "probability": 0.64599609375}, {"start": 657.41, "end": 657.83, "word": " بالظبط", "probability": 0.984619140625}, {"start": 657.83, "end": 658.71, "word": " ..", "probability": 0.87744140625}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 24, "seek": 68942, "start": 660.48, "end": 689.42, "text": "buying the land or building or starting of a project need to issue shares or bonds or loans فلأن أن أنت بدك تشتري الأرض و تعمل مشروع فبدك تضطري تطرحي أسهم بدك تضطري تطرحي سندات أو تاخدي قرض فهدول اللي عملوه ي generate لإيش؟ ل financial assets طب نيجي نسأل السؤال ال income الحقيقي بيجي من وين؟ من ال real assets ولا من ال financial assets؟ من ال real assets", "tokens": [6021, 1840, 264, 2117, 420, 2390, 420, 2891, 295, 257, 1716, 643, 281, 2734, 12182, 420, 14713, 420, 15443, 6156, 1211, 33456, 14739, 14739, 2655, 47525, 4117, 6055, 8592, 2655, 16572, 16247, 43042, 4032, 6055, 25957, 1211, 37893, 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or", "probability": 0.74560546875}, {"start": 662.68, "end": 663.06, "word": " building", "probability": 0.7685546875}, {"start": 663.06, "end": 663.28, "word": " or", "probability": 0.8935546875}, {"start": 663.28, "end": 663.72, "word": " starting", "probability": 0.95166015625}, {"start": 663.72, "end": 664.24, "word": " of", "probability": 0.7998046875}, {"start": 664.24, "end": 664.96, "word": " a", "probability": 0.470458984375}, {"start": 664.96, "end": 665.42, "word": " project", "probability": 0.87890625}, {"start": 665.42, "end": 666.26, "word": " need", "probability": 0.83056640625}, {"start": 666.26, "end": 666.74, "word": " to", "probability": 0.982421875}, {"start": 666.74, "end": 667.24, "word": " issue", "probability": 0.94775390625}, {"start": 667.24, "end": 668.38, "word": " shares", "probability": 0.908203125}, {"start": 668.38, "end": 668.74, "word": " or", "probability": 0.96923828125}, {"start": 668.74, "end": 669.12, "word": " bonds", "probability": 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"word": " عملوه", "probability": 0.64306640625}, {"start": 679.42, "end": 679.54, "word": " ي", "probability": 0.450439453125}, {"start": 679.54, "end": 680.02, "word": " generate", "probability": 0.64111328125}, {"start": 680.02, "end": 680.58, "word": " لإيش؟", "probability": 0.683251953125}, {"start": 680.58, "end": 680.64, "word": " ل", "probability": 0.82958984375}, {"start": 680.64, "end": 680.94, "word": " financial", "probability": 0.70556640625}, {"start": 680.94, "end": 681.4, "word": " assets", "probability": 0.6669921875}, {"start": 681.4, "end": 682.12, "word": " طب", "probability": 0.876220703125}, {"start": 682.12, "end": 682.28, "word": " نيجي", "probability": 0.8175048828125}, {"start": 682.28, "end": 682.58, "word": " نسأل", "probability": 0.978759765625}, {"start": 682.58, "end": 682.98, "word": " السؤال", "probability": 0.9943033854166666}, {"start": 682.98, "end": 683.7, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.96142578125}, {"start": 683.7, "end": 683.98, "word": " income", "probability": 0.953125}, {"start": 683.98, "end": 684.4, "word": " الحقيقي", "probability": 0.9505208333333334}, {"start": 684.4, "end": 684.62, "word": " بيجي", "probability": 0.979248046875}, {"start": 684.62, "end": 684.74, "word": " من", "probability": 0.99267578125}, {"start": 684.74, "end": 685.46, "word": " وين؟", "probability": 0.8170572916666666}, {"start": 685.46, "end": 685.64, "word": " من", "probability": 0.9912109375}, {"start": 685.64, "end": 685.78, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.98291015625}, {"start": 685.78, "end": 685.98, "word": " real", "probability": 0.94189453125}, {"start": 685.98, "end": 686.44, "word": " assets", "probability": 0.7314453125}, {"start": 686.44, "end": 686.82, "word": " ولا", "probability": 0.70556640625}, {"start": 686.82, "end": 687.0, "word": " من", "probability": 0.99072265625}, {"start": 687.0, "end": 687.1, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.9736328125}, {"start": 687.1, "end": 687.46, "word": " financial", "probability": 0.9501953125}, {"start": 687.46, "end": 687.92, "word": " assets؟", "probability": 0.787353515625}, {"start": 687.92, "end": 688.06, "word": " من", "probability": 0.9501953125}, {"start": 688.06, "end": 688.82, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.96875}, {"start": 688.82, "end": 689.0, "word": " real", "probability": 0.95068359375}, {"start": 689.0, "end": 689.42, "word": " assets", "probability": 0.88671875}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 25, "seek": 71519, "start": 691.49, "end": 715.19, "text": "إذا الحقيقة هيجي من وين؟ أنا أصلا كانت Indie Art بالظبط من ال real asset لأن ال real asset انت هتعمل المصنع و ال machines producing goods and services و ال goods and services will be sold in the markets so it generates income and the income recover ال loans شفتوا كيف ال cycle هتمشي؟ يعني هذه ال machines اللي احنا اشتريناها", "tokens": [28814, 15730, 21542, 38436, 28671, 39896, 7435, 1829, 9154, 4032, 9957, 22807, 41850, 5551, 9381, 15040, 25961, 2655, 2333, 414, 5735, 20666, 19913, 3555, 9566, 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" شغلتان", "probability": 0.9849609375}, {"start": 841.9, "end": 842.56, "word": " هندفع", "probability": 0.9443359375}, {"start": 842.56, "end": 842.8, "word": " اللي", "probability": 0.968017578125}, {"start": 842.8, "end": 843.08, "word": " هو", "probability": 0.99365234375}, {"start": 843.08, "end": 843.84, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.9541015625}, {"start": 843.84, "end": 844.14, "word": " ..", "probability": 0.8876953125}, {"start": 844.14, "end": 844.38, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.9736328125}, {"start": 844.38, "end": 844.42, "word": " ..", "probability": 0.951171875}, {"start": 844.42, "end": 844.6, "word": " the", "probability": 0.759765625}, {"start": 844.6, "end": 845.0, "word": " value", "probability": 0.98681640625}, {"start": 845.0, "end": 845.26, "word": " of", "probability": 0.98876953125}, {"start": 845.26, "end": 845.58, "word": " ..", "probability": 0.953125}, {"start": 845.58, "end": 845.8, "word": " of", "probability": 0.97802734375}, {"start": 845.8, 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"text": "الأسهم ممتازة صح، إذا هاي عندنا ال bonds, preferred stocks و ال loans, treasury bills, CDs كلهم هدول بيعطوني ايه؟ بيعطوني fixed income لكن في مشاكل إن احنا نحصل على fixed income okay هنيجي نحكي في الموضوع", "tokens": [6027, 10721, 3794, 16095, 3714, 2304, 2655, 31377, 3660, 20328, 5016, 12399, 11933, 15730, 8032, 47302, 43242, 8315, 2423, 14713, 11, 16494, 12966, 4032, 2423, 15443, 11, 47213, 12433, 11, 45257, 28242, 16095, 8032, 3215, 12610, 4724, 40228, 9566, 11536, 1829, 1975, 1829, 3224, 22807, 4724, 40228, 9566, 11536, 1829, 6806, 5742, 44381, 8978, 37893, 995, 28820, 36145, 1975, 5016, 8315, 8717, 5016, 36520, 15844, 6806, 5742, 1392, 8032, 22653, 7435, 1829, 8717, 5016, 4117, 1829, 8978, 9673, 2407, 11242, 45367], "avg_logprob": -0.23666158045937374, "compression_ratio": 1.4046511627906977, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 965.94, "end": 966.4, "word": "الأسهم", "probability": 0.8843994140625}, {"start": 966.4, "end": 966.88, "word": " ممتازة", "probability": 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1059.28, "word": " احنا", "probability": 0.8541666666666666}, {"start": 1059.28, "end": 1060.64, "word": " خلينا", "probability": 0.7549641927083334}, {"start": 1060.64, "end": 1060.82, "word": " نبدأ", "probability": 0.970703125}, {"start": 1060.82, "end": 1060.92, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.87646484375}, {"start": 1060.92, "end": 1061.18, "word": " story", "probability": 0.97900390625}, {"start": 1061.18, "end": 1061.32, "word": " من", "probability": 0.990234375}, {"start": 1061.32, "end": 1061.78, "word": " بدايتها", "probability": 0.9422607421875}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 39, "seek": 109120, "start": 1063.28, "end": 1091.2, "text": "we agree that real assets generate financial assets، مظبوط؟ اذا real assets generate financial assets، abbreviation for financial assets okay financial assets generate derivatives what it means derivatives", "tokens": [826, 3986, 300, 957, 9769, 8460, 4669, 9769, 12399, 3714, 19913, 3555, 2407, 9566, 22807, 1975, 15730, 957, 9769, 8460, 4669, 9769, 12399, 35839, 399, 337, 4669, 9769, 1392, 4669, 9769, 8460, 33733, 437, 309, 1355, 33733], "avg_logprob": -0.30962170189932775, "compression_ratio": 1.7851239669421488, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 1063.28, "end": 1063.54, "word": "we", "probability": 0.497314453125}, {"start": 1063.54, "end": 1063.84, "word": " agree", "probability": 0.908203125}, {"start": 1063.84, "end": 1064.08, "word": " that", "probability": 0.94921875}, {"start": 1064.08, "end": 1064.42, "word": " real", "probability": 0.90087890625}, {"start": 1064.42, "end": 1064.94, "word": " assets", "probability": 0.86865234375}, {"start": 1064.94, "end": 1066.52, "word": " generate", "probability": 0.66845703125}, {"start": 1066.52, "end": 1067.76, "word": " financial", "probability": 0.9052734375}, {"start": 1067.76, "end": 1068.28, "word": " assets،", "probability": 0.5794677734375}, {"start": 1068.28, "end": 1070.06, "word": " مظبوط؟", "probability": 0.8828938802083334}, {"start": 1070.06, "end": 1070.24, "word": " اذا", "probability": 0.592041015625}, {"start": 1070.24, "end": 1070.8, "word": " real", "probability": 0.79150390625}, {"start": 1070.8, "end": 1071.28, "word": " assets", "probability": 0.83251953125}, {"start": 1071.28, "end": 1075.24, "word": " generate", "probability": 0.5673828125}, {"start": 1075.24, "end": 1076.5, "word": " financial", "probability": 0.93701171875}, {"start": 1076.5, "end": 1077.22, "word": " assets،", "probability": 0.6168212890625}, {"start": 1077.22, "end": 1077.92, "word": " abbreviation", "probability": 0.6553955078125}, {"start": 1077.92, "end": 1078.12, "word": " for", "probability": 0.95849609375}, {"start": 1078.12, "end": 1078.48, "word": " financial", "probability": 0.91943359375}, {"start": 1078.48, "end": 1078.94, "word": " assets", "probability": 0.845703125}, {"start": 1078.94, "end": 1080.26, "word": " okay", "probability": 0.416748046875}, {"start": 1080.26, "end": 1082.12, "word": " financial", "probability": 0.54248046875}, {"start": 1082.12, "end": 1082.86, "word": " assets", "probability": 0.8876953125}, {"start": 1082.86, "end": 1084.76, "word": " generate", "probability": 0.64990234375}, {"start": 1084.76, "end": 1085.68, "word": " derivatives", "probability": 0.9169921875}, {"start": 1085.68, "end": 1090.28, "word": " what", "probability": 0.76220703125}, {"start": 1090.28, "end": 1090.46, "word": " it", "probability": 0.95361328125}, {"start": 1090.46, "end": 1090.74, "word": " means", "probability": 0.94189453125}, {"start": 1090.74, "end": 1091.2, "word": " derivatives", "probability": 0.91015625}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 40, "seek": 112047, "start": 1092.45, "end": 1120.47, "text": "مشتقات it means derivatives is derived from the prices of financial assets يعني ال derivatives هي مشتقة من أسعار ال financial assets so the investors and derivatives drive transactions or drive investments on the prices of financial assets how it comes؟ كيف هذا الكلام بيصير؟", "tokens": [2304, 8592, 2655, 4587, 9307, 309, 1355, 33733, 307, 18949, 490, 264, 7901, 295, 4669, 9769, 37495, 22653, 2423, 33733, 39896, 37893, 2655, 28671, 9154, 5551, 3794, 3615, 9640, 2423, 4669, 9769, 370, 264, 11519, 293, 33733, 3332, 16856, 420, 3332, 13784, 322, 264, 7901, 295, 4669, 9769, 577, 309, 1487, 22807, 9122, 33911, 23758, 2423, 28820, 10943, 4724, 1829, 9381, 13546, 22807], "avg_logprob": -0.12469481793232262, "compression_ratio": 1.6597938144329898, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 1092.45, "end": 1093.17, "word": "مشتقات", "probability": 0.91826171875}, {"start": 1093.17, "end": 1093.37, "word": " it", "probability": 0.7509765625}, {"start": 1093.37, "end": 1093.89, "word": " means", "probability": 0.91796875}, {"start": 1093.89, "end": 1095.55, "word": " derivatives", "probability": 0.89306640625}, {"start": 1095.55, "end": 1096.07, "word": " is", "probability": 0.92529296875}, {"start": 1096.07, "end": 1096.83, "word": " derived", "probability": 0.88720703125}, {"start": 1096.83, "end": 1097.39, "word": " from", "probability": 0.93115234375}, {"start": 1097.39, "end": 1097.61, "word": " the", "probability": 0.91357421875}, {"start": 1097.61, "end": 1098.03, "word": " prices", "probability": 0.83935546875}, {"start": 1098.03, "end": 1098.27, "word": " of", "probability": 0.97802734375}, {"start": 1098.27, "end": 1098.69, "word": " financial", "probability": 0.884765625}, {"start": 1098.69, "end": 1099.21, "word": " assets", "probability": 0.734375}, {"start": 1099.21, "end": 1101.13, "word": " يعني", "probability": 0.8916015625}, {"start": 1101.13, "end": 1101.23, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.93994140625}, {"start": 1101.23, "end": 1101.57, "word": " derivatives", "probability": 0.892578125}, {"start": 1101.57, "end": 1101.81, "word": " هي", "probability": 0.8876953125}, {"start": 1101.81, "end": 1102.31, "word": " مشتقة", "probability": 0.9521484375}, {"start": 1102.31, "end": 1102.49, "word": " من", "probability": 0.99560546875}, {"start": 1102.49, "end": 1103.07, "word": " أسعار", "probability": 0.973388671875}, {"start": 1103.07, "end": 1103.31, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.962890625}, {"start": 1103.31, "end": 1103.65, "word": " financial", "probability": 0.9189453125}, {"start": 1103.65, "end": 1104.07, "word": " assets", "probability": 0.8369140625}, {"start": 1104.07, "end": 1106.01, "word": " so", "probability": 0.5283203125}, {"start": 1106.01, "end": 1107.19, "word": " the", "probability": 0.71142578125}, {"start": 1107.19, "end": 1107.65, "word": " investors", "probability": 0.9462890625}, {"start": 1107.65, "end": 1107.95, "word": " and", "probability": 0.70654296875}, {"start": 1107.95, "end": 1109.03, "word": " derivatives", "probability": 0.91162109375}, {"start": 1109.03, "end": 1111.41, "word": " drive", "probability": 0.87353515625}, {"start": 1111.41, "end": 1112.77, "word": " transactions", "probability": 0.89501953125}, {"start": 1112.77, "end": 1113.43, "word": " or", "probability": 0.83642578125}, {"start": 1113.43, "end": 1113.75, "word": " drive", "probability": 0.8154296875}, {"start": 1113.75, "end": 1114.51, "word": " investments", "probability": 0.72900390625}, {"start": 1114.51, "end": 1115.09, "word": " on", "probability": 0.95458984375}, {"start": 1115.09, "end": 1115.33, "word": " the", "probability": 0.931640625}, {"start": 1115.33, "end": 1115.71, "word": " prices", "probability": 0.85546875}, {"start": 1115.71, "end": 1115.95, "word": " of", "probability": 0.9658203125}, {"start": 1115.95, "end": 1116.37, "word": " financial", "probability": 0.8916015625}, {"start": 1116.37, "end": 1116.83, "word": " assets", "probability": 0.83447265625}, {"start": 1116.83, "end": 1118.41, "word": " how", "probability": 0.7998046875}, {"start": 1118.41, "end": 1118.55, "word": " it", "probability": 0.935546875}, {"start": 1118.55, "end": 1119.35, "word": " comes؟", "probability": 0.6845703125}, {"start": 1119.35, "end": 1119.55, "word": " كيف", "probability": 0.981201171875}, {"start": 1119.55, "end": 1119.79, "word": " هذا", "probability": 0.91552734375}, {"start": 1119.79, "end": 1119.95, "word": " الكلام", "probability": 0.8984375}, {"start": 1119.95, "end": 1120.47, "word": " بيصير؟", "probability": 0.9390625}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 41, "seek": 114731, "start": 1122.19, "end": 1147.31, "text": "مثال بسيط derivatives includes three types option future and swap okay let's take example of the option and how the option is derived from the financial assets", "tokens": [2304, 12984, 6027, 4724, 3794, 1829, 9566, 33733, 5974, 1045, 3467, 3614, 2027, 293, 18135, 1392, 718, 311, 747, 1365, 295, 264, 3614, 293, 577, 264, 3614, 307, 18949, 490, 264, 4669, 9769], "avg_logprob": -0.22587315606720307, "compression_ratio": 1.255639097744361, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 1122.19, "end": 1122.67, "word": "مثال", "probability": 0.8483072916666666}, {"start": 1122.67, "end": 1123.09, "word": " بسيط", "probability": 0.992431640625}, {"start": 1123.09, "end": 1125.69, "word": " derivatives", "probability": 0.09503173828125}, {"start": 1125.69, "end": 1126.35, "word": " includes", "probability": 0.63232421875}, {"start": 1126.35, "end": 1126.75, "word": " three", "probability": 0.79833984375}, {"start": 1126.75, "end": 1127.17, "word": " types", "probability": 0.88037109375}, {"start": 1127.17, "end": 1129.45, "word": " option", "probability": 0.806640625}, {"start": 1129.45, "end": 1132.57, "word": " future", "probability": 0.52392578125}, {"start": 1132.57, "end": 1134.57, "word": " and", "probability": 0.888671875}, {"start": 1134.57, "end": 1135.01, "word": " swap", "probability": 0.9580078125}, {"start": 1135.01, "end": 1137.87, "word": " okay", "probability": 0.71826171875}, {"start": 1137.87, "end": 1140.51, "word": " let's", "probability": 0.880126953125}, {"start": 1140.51, "end": 1140.73, "word": " take", "probability": 0.8837890625}, {"start": 1140.73, "end": 1141.09, "word": " example", "probability": 0.697265625}, {"start": 1141.09, "end": 1141.47, "word": " of", "probability": 0.97900390625}, {"start": 1141.47, "end": 1142.81, "word": " the", "probability": 0.8291015625}, {"start": 1142.81, "end": 1143.09, "word": " option", "probability": 0.9208984375}, {"start": 1143.09, "end": 1144.33, "word": " and", "probability": 0.93115234375}, {"start": 1144.33, "end": 1144.59, "word": " how", "probability": 0.9619140625}, {"start": 1144.59, "end": 1144.75, "word": " the", "probability": 0.89501953125}, {"start": 1144.75, "end": 1145.09, "word": " option", "probability": 0.935546875}, {"start": 1145.09, "end": 1145.33, "word": " is", "probability": 0.9482421875}, {"start": 1145.33, "end": 1145.83, "word": " derived", "probability": 0.904296875}, {"start": 1145.83, "end": 1146.27, "word": " from", "probability": 0.9189453125}, {"start": 1146.27, "end": 1146.43, "word": " the", "probability": 0.7998046875}, {"start": 1146.43, "end": 1146.85, "word": " financial", "probability": 0.89697265625}, {"start": 1146.85, "end": 1147.31, "word": " assets", "probability": 0.5107421875}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 42, "seek": 117375, "start": 1149.47, "end": 1173.75, "text": "as we agree before the common stock is one of the financial assets واحدة من ال financial assets okay اذا هاي stock هاي financial assets هلا بنعمل drive ل financial ل derivatives ناخد ال option سعر ال stock في السوق نفترض عشرين دولار سعره في السوق عشرين دولار", "tokens": [296, 321, 3986, 949, 264, 2689, 4127, 307, 472, 295, 264, 4669, 9769, 36764, 24401, 3660, 9154, 2423, 4669, 9769, 1392, 1975, 15730, 8032, 47302, 4127, 8032, 47302, 4669, 9769, 8032, 15040, 44945, 25957, 1211, 3332, 5296, 4669, 5296, 33733, 8717, 47283, 3215, 2423, 3614, 8608, 3615, 2288, 2423, 4127, 8978, 21136, 30543, 8717, 5172, 2655, 43042, 6225, 46309, 9957, 11778, 12610, 9640, 8608, 3615, 2288, 3224, 8978, 21136, 30543, 6225, 46309, 9957, 11778, 12610, 9640], "avg_logprob": -0.19368912724705487, "compression_ratio": 1.7435897435897436, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, 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{"start": 1153.55, "end": 1153.99, "word": " assets", "probability": 0.83251953125}, {"start": 1153.99, "end": 1154.47, "word": " واحدة", "probability": 0.7754720052083334}, {"start": 1154.47, "end": 1154.57, "word": " من", "probability": 0.99462890625}, {"start": 1154.57, "end": 1154.63, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.9453125}, {"start": 1154.63, "end": 1154.93, "word": " financial", "probability": 0.84814453125}, {"start": 1154.93, "end": 1155.47, "word": " assets", "probability": 0.85595703125}, {"start": 1155.47, "end": 1156.09, "word": " okay", "probability": 0.488037109375}, {"start": 1156.09, "end": 1157.57, "word": " اذا", "probability": 0.6226806640625}, {"start": 1157.57, "end": 1157.81, "word": " هاي", "probability": 0.587646484375}, {"start": 1157.81, "end": 1158.21, "word": " stock", "probability": 0.80322265625}, {"start": 1158.21, "end": 1159.19, "word": " هاي", "probability": 0.75048828125}, {"start": 1159.19, "end": 1159.53, "word": " financial", "probability": 0.88427734375}, {"start": 1159.53, "end": 1159.95, "word": " assets", "probability": 0.63525390625}, {"start": 1159.95, "end": 1160.43, "word": " هلا", "probability": 0.540771484375}, {"start": 1160.43, "end": 1160.99, "word": " بنعمل", "probability": 0.8924153645833334}, {"start": 1160.99, "end": 1161.85, "word": " drive", "probability": 0.76953125}, {"start": 1161.85, "end": 1162.75, "word": " ل", "probability": 0.884765625}, {"start": 1162.75, "end": 1163.27, "word": " financial", "probability": 0.85595703125}, {"start": 1163.27, "end": 1164.01, "word": " ل", "probability": 0.5478515625}, {"start": 1164.01, "end": 1164.53, "word": " derivatives", "probability": 0.94775390625}, {"start": 1164.53, "end": 1165.61, "word": " ناخد", "probability": 0.9217122395833334}, {"start": 1165.61, "end": 1165.69, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.96533203125}, {"start": 1165.69, "end": 1166.01, "word": " option", "probability": 0.9765625}, {"start": 1166.01, "end": 1168.37, "word": " سعر", 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1429.44, "word": " عندكم", "probability": 0.986572265625}, {"start": 1429.44, "end": 1429.82, "word": " الإجابة", "probability": 0.906982421875}, {"start": 1429.82, "end": 1429.9, "word": " في", "probability": 0.96435546875}, {"start": 1429.9, "end": 1430.36, "word": " الكتاب", "probability": 0.9226888020833334}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 52, "seek": 143948, "start": 1431.18, "end": 1439.48, "text": "Okay so next meeting inshallah we will start our class by answering this one okay any question?", "tokens": [8297, 370, 958, 3440, 1028, 71, 13492, 321, 486, 722, 527, 1508, 538, 13430, 341, 472, 1392, 604, 1168, 30], "avg_logprob": -0.30338542801993235, "compression_ratio": 1.1585365853658536, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 1431.18, "end": 1431.58, "word": "Okay", "probability": 0.8828125}, {"start": 1431.58, "end": 1431.98, "word": " so", "probability": 0.364013671875}, {"start": 1431.98, "end": 1432.22, "word": " next", "probability": 0.9306640625}, {"start": 1432.22, 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\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/gkra4OnatfM_postprocess.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/gkra4OnatfM_postprocess.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..3571e2f245b1dda298ae4c178672a52f97042e49
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/gkra4OnatfM_postprocess.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1784 @@
+1
+00:00:20,650 --> 00:00:25,070
+مرة ساعتين كنا نحكي في موضوع ال .. أنواع ال .. ال
+
+2
+00:00:25,070 --> 00:00:27,870
+order markets و حكينا فيه نوعين رئيسيا في ال order
+
+3
+00:00:27,870 --> 00:00:31,930
+markets ال market order و حكينا ال price
+
+4
+00:00:31,930 --> 00:00:36,650
+contingent order خلينا نحكي على ال .. ال price
+
+5
+00:00:36,650 --> 00:00:40,370
+contingent order أنا بعتقد أنه أعطيتكم مثال عليه
+
+6
+00:00:40,370 --> 00:00:43,720
+لما حكينا على ال mobileلما حكينا عن الموضوع ال
+
+7
+00:00:43,720 --> 00:00:49,080
+mobile نشتري و نبدأ في بيع و بعدين بيفتم عملية
+
+8
+00:00:49,080 --> 00:00:52,440
+الشراء فبنعمل فيه شغل اسمه stop buy order و stop
+
+9
+00:00:52,440 --> 00:00:57,580
+sell order تمام هذا الكلام احنا شرحناه هلأ بعد
+
+10
+00:00:57,580 --> 00:01:01,180
+الموجود نحكي عن ال trading mechanisms ال trading
+
+11
+00:01:01,180 --> 00:01:01,720
+mechanisms
+
+12
+00:01:06,650 --> 00:01:11,950
+بتعني أنظمة التعامل بالأسواق المالية trading
+
+13
+00:01:11,950 --> 00:01:17,910
+mechanisms اللي هي صفحة 15 على ال slides trading
+
+14
+00:01:17,910 --> 00:01:23,730
+mechanisms في trading mechanisms كيف الأسواق
+
+15
+00:01:23,730 --> 00:01:29,370
+المالية بتتم تنظيمها حكينا في ال dealer markets
+
+16
+00:01:29,370 --> 00:01:33,430
+اللي هو أسواق ال dealersو عارفين احنا ال dealers
+
+17
+00:01:33,430 --> 00:01:36,030
+market انهم بيبيعوا بيشتريوا من المخزون تبعهم
+
+18
+00:01:36,030 --> 00:01:41,110
+inventory okay طبعا
+
+19
+00:01:41,110 --> 00:01:47,050
+اهم سوق ال dealer market هو سوق نازدك نازدك نازدك
+
+20
+00:01:47,050 --> 00:01:54,590
+مش المؤشر اسمه سوق نازدك okay ال nasdaq هو سوق بين
+
+21
+00:01:54,590 --> 00:02:00,280
+ال dealers يعني مايكونش في علاقة بين ال nasdaqأو
+
+22
+00:02:00,280 --> 00:02:03,300
+بين ال dealers الموجودين بالناس ده كمع اللي هو ال
+
+23
+00:02:03,300 --> 00:02:06,460
+real financial market هم بيبيعوا بيشتريوا بين بعض
+
+24
+00:02:06,460 --> 00:02:09,800
+ال dealers يعني أي investors بديه يشتري أو يبيع ب
+
+25
+00:02:09,800 --> 00:02:15,860
+.. من خلال ال dealers okay فهذا بيسموه يعني زي
+
+26
+00:02:15,860 --> 00:02:19,100
+احنا بنحكي مثلا سوق الدلالين مثلا او ال .. بيكونوا
+
+27
+00:02:19,100 --> 00:02:22,940
+سوق بيناتهم مع بعض هم يعني مثلا خلنا نحكي الخان
+
+28
+00:02:22,940 --> 00:02:26,930
+اللي في السوق هذا في سوق فراسالصبح يعني الناس يمكن
+
+29
+00:02:26,930 --> 00:02:29,170
+الساعة تلاتة أو الساعة أربعة الصبح بيروحوا على
+
+30
+00:02:29,170 --> 00:02:32,750
+السوق اللي هو الخان في الخان فيه dealers بيكونوا
+
+31
+00:02:32,750 --> 00:02:36,970
+فال dealers هم بيبيعوا و بيشتريوا لبعض من بعض فال
+
+32
+00:02:36,970 --> 00:02:39,850
+investors او الناس ال individual زي و زيك ممنوع
+
+33
+00:02:39,850 --> 00:02:43,650
+انهم يدخلوا في هذا المكان فهم بتعاملوا لو بدهم
+
+34
+00:02:43,650 --> 00:02:46,110
+يشتريوا و بيبيعوا من ال dealer بعد ما يخلص السوق
+
+35
+00:02:46,110 --> 00:02:48,250
+هذا فيروحوا هم بيشتغلوا مع ال .. بيشتريوا و
+
+36
+00:02:48,250 --> 00:02:53,450
+بيبيعوافالنازدك هو من أكبر الأسواق المالية لأسواق
+
+37
+00:02:53,450 --> 00:02:57,570
+ال dealers هم أكبر سوق موجود في .. في العالم
+
+38
+00:02:57,570 --> 00:03:05,630
+بتعامله من خلال ال dealers okay؟ في كمان سوق New
+
+39
+00:03:05,630 --> 00:03:08,670
+York Stock Exchange لأ New York Stock Exchange هو
+
+40
+00:03:08,670 --> 00:03:12,090
+مش .. مش dealer markets هنحكي في New York Stock
+
+41
+00:03:12,090 --> 00:03:15,830
+Exchange okay؟
+
+42
+00:03:15,830 --> 00:03:22,150
+في عندنا اللي هو ال ECNال electronic communication
+
+43
+00:03:22,150 --> 00:03:28,590
+networks ال ACMs هي تشبه ال dealer market بالظبط
+
+44
+00:03:28,590 --> 00:03:32,650
+لكن ال networking between the dealers is through
+
+45
+00:03:32,650 --> 00:03:36,450
+the computer system يعني شبكة الرابط بين ال
+
+46
+00:03:36,450 --> 00:03:41,850
+dealers is the computer system بدل ما هم ال dealer
+
+47
+00:03:41,850 --> 00:03:46,210
+يرتقيوا مع بعضOkay و .. and they talk to each
+
+48
+00:03:46,210 --> 00:03:50,370
+other physically or face to face they use their
+
+49
+00:03:50,370 --> 00:03:54,230
+own computer and they can practice the .. the
+
+50
+00:03:54,230 --> 00:03:56,550
+trading through the computer system they .. they
+
+51
+00:03:56,550 --> 00:04:00,330
+don't need to face .. to face meeting يعني هم ال
+
+52
+00:04:00,330 --> 00:04:04,430
+dealer اللي هدول ال ACN's هي شبكات إلكترونية بتربط
+
+53
+00:04:04,430 --> 00:04:10,070
+ال .. ال dealer في بعض فهم بدل ما هم ي ..يعني
+
+54
+00:04:10,070 --> 00:04:15,570
+يلتقيوا في مكان physically جسديا face to face فهم
+
+55
+00:04:15,570 --> 00:04:19,070
+بيواجدوا الأنظمة الإلكترونية النظام الإلكتروني
+
+56
+00:04:19,070 --> 00:04:25,610
+يعني مثلا لو كان عندي أنا هنا investor بتعامل مع
+
+57
+00:04:25,610 --> 00:04:28,510
+.. مع سوق ال ACN's اللي هو Electronic
+
+58
+00:04:28,510 --> 00:04:33,450
+Communication Networks فهو في .. بيكون عنده شبكة
+
+59
+00:04:33,450 --> 00:04:37,430
+جهاز حسوب هذا الجهاز الحسوب is connected with the
+
+60
+00:04:37,430 --> 00:04:42,800
+dealerOkay and the dealer is connected with other
+
+61
+00:04:42,800 --> 00:04:46,740
+dealer So if this guy want to buy or sell a
+
+62
+00:04:46,740 --> 00:04:50,440
+particular shares Okay if this guy wants to buy
+
+63
+00:04:50,440 --> 00:04:54,800
+and sell a particular shares These orders is go
+
+64
+00:04:54,800 --> 00:04:58,140
+through the networks يعني مثلا إنه هذا بدي يعمل
+
+65
+00:04:58,140 --> 00:05:06,580
+buy لأسهم for instance Yahoo So he want to buyand
+
+66
+00:05:06,580 --> 00:05:10,400
+we said if anyone want to buy there is an other
+
+67
+00:05:10,400 --> 00:05:13,760
+side there is one to sell يعني إذا كان واحد بده
+
+68
+00:05:13,760 --> 00:05:16,840
+يشتري في واحد على الطرف الآخر بيكون بده يبيع وهذا
+
+69
+00:05:16,840 --> 00:05:20,260
+بيتعامل مع ال dealer هذه ال buy تبعت هذا الشخص
+
+70
+00:05:20,260 --> 00:05:24,000
+اللي بتظهر عند ال dealer تبعته ال will appear in
+
+71
+00:05:24,000 --> 00:05:29,080
+other people computers يعني إذا هذا بده يشتري صحيح
+
+72
+00:05:29,080 --> 00:05:32,800
+هو بيتعامل مع ال dealer هذا لكن هتظهر الشراء هتظهر
+
+73
+00:05:32,800 --> 00:05:37,100
+عند الآخرين على ال networksso anybody is
+
+74
+00:05:37,100 --> 00:05:40,860
+interested on selling this يعني إذا أي واحد معني
+
+75
+00:05:40,860 --> 00:05:46,180
+يبيعه فهيصير البيع لهذا الشخص يعني مش شرط إنه احنا
+
+76
+00:05:46,180 --> 00:05:49,580
+فقط إذا احنا بدنا نشتري من dealer معين إنه يتم
+
+77
+00:05:49,580 --> 00:05:52,280
+تنفيذ الصفقة من هذا ال dealer ممكن تنفيذ الصفقة
+
+78
+00:05:52,280 --> 00:05:57,060
+عبر other dealers other dealers و هم يشتريوا يعني
+
+79
+00:05:57,060 --> 00:06:01,520
+مثلا خلينا نحكي بالبلد يعني لو هذا ال buyer بده
+
+80
+00:06:01,520 --> 00:06:05,750
+يشتري بندورة مثلا خليني أحكي ببساطةفهو بطلب منه I
+
+81
+00:06:05,750 --> 00:06:10,510
+want to buy مثلا tomatoes اللي هو بندورة هذا ..
+
+82
+00:06:10,510 --> 00:06:14,630
+هدول هيظهر عندهم على الشاشة أنه هذا الشخص بده
+
+83
+00:06:14,630 --> 00:06:18,230
+يشتري بندورة so other people ممكن هذا ماينفذش معاه
+
+84
+00:06:18,230 --> 00:06:21,230
+ممكن ال dealer هذا يدخل و يقوله okay I sell you
+
+85
+00:06:21,230 --> 00:06:22,770
+أنا أبيعك أنا ببيعك
+
+86
+00:06:38,110 --> 00:06:39,510
+فبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتب
+
+87
+00:06:46,560 --> 00:06:50,760
+أه شفافية عالية جدا و يعني مثلا أعطيكوا مثال مثلا
+
+88
+00:06:50,760 --> 00:06:56,520
+مرة Hillary Clinton بتاعة بتعرفوا زوجة Hillary
+
+89
+00:06:56,520 --> 00:06:59,860
+Clinton الآن هي بس هي كانت زوجة Clinton صح أيام ما
+
+90
+00:06:59,860 --> 00:07:03,740
+كان هو رئيس الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية فكانت عملت
+
+91
+00:07:03,740 --> 00:07:08,550
+شرا فكان كل الناس عرفوا أن هي قاعدة بتشتريbecause
+
+92
+00:07:08,550 --> 00:07:13,250
+this is ASEAN market electronic market and each or
+
+93
+00:07:13,250 --> 00:07:15,830
+every single transaction it will be known by
+
+94
+00:07:15,830 --> 00:07:20,170
+others يعني مافيش فيها كل واحد معروف مين بيشتري و
+
+95
+00:07:20,170 --> 00:07:28,390
+مين بيبيع highly transparency market تمام؟ كيف؟
+
+96
+00:07:28,390 --> 00:07:35,750
+انت مجرد تفتح حساب عند dealer واحد و تصير تعمل
+
+97
+00:07:35,750 --> 00:07:36,950
+trade الكل هيشوفك
+
+98
+00:07:39,850 --> 00:07:42,890
+عرفتي؟ يعني هلأ مثلا أنت روحتي على bank فلسطين
+
+99
+00:07:42,890 --> 00:07:48,290
+شركة وساطة مثلا وفتحت حساب عندهم عشان تشتري أسهم
+
+100
+00:07:48,290 --> 00:07:52,410
+من سوق فلسطين أوراق مالية، هلأ لو أنت عملتي order
+
+101
+00:07:52,410 --> 00:07:56,890
+other people .. other people .. other dealers they
+
+102
+00:07:56,890 --> 00:08:00,550
+will see your orderيعني حتى ال dealers التانية مش
+
+103
+00:08:00,550 --> 00:08:04,070
+شركة وساطة مثلا إذا كانت شركة المتحدة شركة سهم
+
+104
+00:08:04,070 --> 00:08:07,890
+okay شركة الوطنية هدول شركات الأوراق المالية أو ال
+
+105
+00:08:07,890 --> 00:08:12,490
+dealers هيشوف ال order تبعتك و .. و المفروض مثلا ب
+
+106
+00:08:12,490 --> 00:08:16,230
+.. ب London مثلا لو أنت حطيت باسمك order كل الناس
+
+107
+00:08:16,230 --> 00:08:21,190
+ال .. ال dealers هشوفوا مين أنت و شو اسمك و ال ..
+
+108
+00:08:21,190 --> 00:08:25,320
+و قدش عدد الأسهم اللي أنت بدكيهافهذه بتعمل high
+
+109
+00:08:25,320 --> 00:08:28,640
+transparency لل .. لل market شوفها فيها عالية كتير
+
+110
+00:08:28,640 --> 00:08:32,540
+okay فش .. there is no privacy here فش خصيصية
+
+111
+00:08:32,540 --> 00:08:37,200
+مافيشش .. عشان هيك في بعض العربان مثلا مابحبوش
+
+112
+00:08:37,200 --> 00:08:41,140
+يدخلوا في أي الأشياء هذه because some .. some
+
+113
+00:08:41,140 --> 00:08:44,180
+particular people مش شرط كمان بعض العرب يعني بعض
+
+114
+00:08:44,180 --> 00:08:46,500
+ال .. some particular people they don't want to ..
+
+115
+00:08:46,500 --> 00:08:49,340
+to engage in this market because it is highly
+
+116
+00:08:49,340 --> 00:08:53,570
+transparency market لأنه highly transparencyOkay
+
+117
+00:08:53,570 --> 00:08:59,130
+because you have to disclose a particular
+
+118
+00:08:59,130 --> 00:09:07,630
+information about yourself للdealers okay طبعا
+
+119
+00:09:07,630 --> 00:09:13,450
+هذا ال ECMs و حكي .. في أنا شغل اسمه specialist
+
+120
+00:09:13,450 --> 00:09:17,250
+markets and I explained two .. two meetings before
+
+121
+00:09:17,250 --> 00:09:20,110
+I explained what it means specialist marketsال
+
+122
+00:09:20,110 --> 00:09:23,670
+specialist markets هي بالظبط تشبه السوق بتاع New
+
+123
+00:09:23,670 --> 00:09:27,350
+York Stock Exchange فأنا أعطيكم مثال لل dealer
+
+124
+00:09:27,350 --> 00:09:30,550
+market هي ال nasdaq و ال specialist market هم
+
+125
+00:09:30,550 --> 00:09:33,770
+الموجودين في New York Stock Exchange هلأ how this
+
+126
+00:09:33,770 --> 00:09:37,290
+market working كيف بيشتغل هذا ال market is
+
+127
+00:09:37,290 --> 00:09:41,590
+different story than the dealer market كيف هذا
+
+128
+00:09:41,590 --> 00:09:45,010
+السوق بيشتغل طريقة تختلف absolutely different than
+
+129
+00:09:45,010 --> 00:09:48,940
+thethe dealer market طريقة بتخلف تماما عن ال
+
+130
+00:09:48,940 --> 00:09:52,160
+dealer market هلا لو أنتوا روحتوا الساعة أربعة
+
+131
+00:09:52,160 --> 00:09:57,640
+مثلا اليوم you open the BBC for instance or CNN or
+
+132
+00:09:57,640 --> 00:10:01,260
+Bloomberg just go to the Bloomberg على ال TV بتاعة
+
+133
+00:10:01,260 --> 00:10:04,260
+ال Bloomberg at four o'clock today just open the
+
+134
+00:10:04,260 --> 00:10:08,540
+channel افتحوا قناة ال Bloomberg okay اللي هي ال
+
+135
+00:10:08,540 --> 00:10:14,930
+BloombergBloomberg is specialized in investments
+
+136
+00:10:14,930 --> 00:10:19,430
+and specialized in business يعني انا كل يوم الصبح
+
+137
+00:10:19,430 --> 00:10:23,370
+I'm listening to Bloomberg and I'm watching some
+
+138
+00:10:23,370 --> 00:10:26,870
+particular reports in Bloomberg هاي Bloomberg
+
+139
+00:10:26,870 --> 00:10:29,410
+متخصصين بال financial market just this specialized
+
+140
+00:10:29,410 --> 00:10:33,350
+in business and financial market هلأ اليوم الساعة
+
+141
+00:10:33,350 --> 00:10:37,870
+أربعة افتحوا Bloomberg هيجي رجع ال هيك at four و
+
+142
+00:10:37,870 --> 00:10:41,740
+معاها مترقة okayI'm talking about now about the
+
+143
+00:10:41,740 --> 00:10:46,060
+New York Stock Exchange and he hit المطرقة on the
+
+144
+00:10:46,060 --> 00:10:48,280
+table it means declaring the starting of the
+
+145
+00:10:48,280 --> 00:10:53,360
+financial markets ببدأ إعلان افتتاح السوق المالي
+
+146
+00:10:53,360 --> 00:10:57,520
+هذا النوع هذا النوع من الأسواق المالية هو بيسموه
+
+147
+00:10:57,520 --> 00:11:00,960
+specialist markets لو أنتوا بتتفرجوا على ال ..
+
+148
+00:11:00,960 --> 00:11:04,120
+just spend five minutes watching to the reports of
+
+149
+00:11:04,120 --> 00:11:07,780
+the Bloomberg طلعوا عن ال report فبتجدوا في ناس في
+
+150
+00:11:07,780 --> 00:11:08,740
+قاعة كبيرة هيك
+
+151
+00:11:12,720 --> 00:11:18,700
+this is a very interesting ففي القاعة مثلا okay
+
+152
+00:11:18,700 --> 00:11:21,740
+بقاعة
+
+153
+00:11:21,740 --> 00:11:26,180
+كبيرة في هون seats أظن شرحتلكم أنا seats مقاعد
+
+154
+00:11:26,180 --> 00:11:32,760
+okay و هون في ناس بيحكوا مع بعض هدول الناس بيحكوا
+
+155
+00:11:32,760 --> 00:11:37,570
+مع بعض بطريقة الإشاراتOkay يعني مثلا بننافس صفقة
+
+156
+00:11:37,570 --> 00:11:42,610
+.. صفقة معينة فهدول مهمتهم to negotiate يفعوضوا
+
+157
+00:11:43,750 --> 00:11:47,470
+Okay بعدين هدول الموجودين ع ال seats هم they
+
+158
+00:11:47,470 --> 00:11:50,550
+receive orders from these people يعني بياخدوا
+
+159
+00:11:50,550 --> 00:11:53,930
+orders من ال people اللي عاملين هذا يعني مثلا واحد
+
+160
+00:11:53,930 --> 00:11:58,570
+بيحكيله انا بدي اشتري IBM هدول الناس بيحكوا مع بعض
+
+161
+00:11:58,570 --> 00:12:02,270
+بدهم يشتريوا IBM فهذا هو specialist في IBM
+
+162
+00:12:02,270 --> 00:12:05,190
+فبيعطوله إشارة انه احنا بنشتري IBM فهو لازم يعطيهم
+
+163
+00:12:05,190 --> 00:12:08,760
+السعر يقوله مديش السعرwhy they call this
+
+164
+00:12:08,760 --> 00:12:14,300
+specialist market because in this market dealers
+
+165
+00:12:14,300 --> 00:12:18,020
+are specialized in a particular stocks يعني ال
+
+166
+00:12:18,020 --> 00:12:21,420
+dealers الموجودين هنا هم متخصصين ب particular
+
+167
+00:12:21,420 --> 00:12:24,880
+stock يعني مانقدر احنا نشتري ال IBM من other
+
+168
+00:12:24,880 --> 00:12:31,980
+specialists so you have to buy and sell IBM from a
+
+169
+00:12:31,980 --> 00:12:36,580
+particular specialist يعني مثلا إذا هذا ببيع IBM
+
+170
+00:12:37,520 --> 00:12:40,680
+هذا بيبيع ياهو مابنقدر احنا نشتري ياهو من هاد
+
+171
+00:12:40,680 --> 00:12:44,840
+نشتري من IBM طب شو دور هدول هدول هم بي .. بي .. بي
+
+172
+00:12:44,840 --> 00:12:47,680
+.. they negotiate on the price and these people
+
+173
+00:12:47,680 --> 00:12:51,220
+that are sitting on the seats are receiving orders
+
+174
+00:12:51,220 --> 00:12:54,660
+from outside هدول الناس اللي بيجلسوا على المقاعة
+
+175
+00:12:54,660 --> 00:12:58,380
+they are receiving orders from outside so from
+
+176
+00:12:58,380 --> 00:13:01,980
+where .. from whom they are receiving ordersthey
+
+177
+00:13:01,980 --> 00:13:06,940
+receive orders from the dealers outside، هلأ احنا
+
+178
+00:13:06,940 --> 00:13:09,920
+حكينا عن ال dealers outside، this is off the
+
+179
+00:13:09,920 --> 00:13:15,040
+market، this is in the marketوهناك نتوارك مرتبط
+
+180
+00:13:15,040 --> 00:13:22,380
+بشركة مخدمة في السوق مع شركة مخدمة في السوق لذلك
+
+181
+00:13:22,380 --> 00:13:25,720
+الناس اللي مقعدة هنا تحصل على أمراض من خلال هاتفين
+
+182
+00:13:25,720 --> 00:13:30,020
+أو إيميالين أو رسائل تكتبية من خلال إتصالات
+
+183
+00:13:30,020 --> 00:13:34,980
+إلكترونية الانترنت وهم يفعلون هذه العملية الناس
+
+184
+00:13:34,980 --> 00:13:38,910
+اللي عالقين هنا مغضبين جدا جدا جداOkay الناس اللي
+
+185
+00:13:38,910 --> 00:13:41,890
+بيشتغلوا هنا هم بيكونوا كتير مشغولين okay and
+
+186
+00:13:41,890 --> 00:13:44,890
+receiving orders من ال .. ال outside و receiving
+
+187
+00:13:44,890 --> 00:13:49,330
+orders من ال people الموجودين هنا okay هذا is a
+
+188
+00:13:49,330 --> 00:13:56,810
+very .. very .. very large markets هذا ال market
+
+189
+00:13:56,810 --> 00:14:00,630
+اللي هو بيسموه specialist marketsوالمثال طبعا ال
+
+190
+00:14:00,630 --> 00:14:03,550
+specialist markets هو ال New York Stock Exchange
+
+191
+00:14:03,550 --> 00:14:07,750
+the importance of specialists .. the importance of
+
+192
+00:14:07,750 --> 00:14:12,770
+specialists هي these people are the .. the best
+
+193
+00:14:12,770 --> 00:14:16,110
+people to know the true price يعني هم أكتر ناس
+
+194
+00:14:16,110 --> 00:14:21,010
+بيعرفوا السعر الحقيقي ل .. لل .. لل .. لل stock
+
+195
+00:14:21,010 --> 00:14:24,830
+because بقدروا هم يعرفوا أداش في supply و أداش في
+
+196
+00:14:24,830 --> 00:14:31,140
+demandقداش عرضوا طلب هدول
+
+197
+00:14:31,140 --> 00:14:33,920
+الناس هما ال market makers هما اللي بيحددوا السوق
+
+198
+00:14:33,920 --> 00:14:41,460
+هدول الناس are market makers because they know
+
+199
+00:14:41,460 --> 00:14:47,820
+what is the demand and supply on a particular
+
+200
+00:14:47,820 --> 00:14:51,000
+stock let's give you example and pay attention for
+
+201
+00:14:51,000 --> 00:14:54,310
+this exampleخلّيني أعطيكوا مثال how they determine
+
+202
+00:14:54,310 --> 00:15:00,850
+the price كيف هم بيحددوا السعر خلّيني أخد
+
+203
+00:15:00,850 --> 00:15:05,250
+specialist معين واحد من ال specialized people and
+
+204
+00:15:05,250 --> 00:15:11,650
+focus how he manage his inventory ال specialist ..
+
+205
+00:15:11,650 --> 00:15:15,210
+خلّيني أحكي specialist number one specialist
+
+206
+00:15:15,210 --> 00:15:21,220
+number one is selling and buying googleبيبيع
+
+207
+00:15:21,220 --> 00:15:26,020
+وبيشتري في إيش؟ في google so he or she is
+
+208
+00:15:26,020 --> 00:15:29,000
+specialized in google okay be attention here
+
+209
+00:15:29,000 --> 00:15:31,900
+please okay والله if you read it thousand times in
+
+210
+00:15:31,900 --> 00:15:34,600
+your textbook you don't understand so be careful
+
+211
+00:15:34,600 --> 00:15:40,820
+with this انتبهوا هنا شوية هلأ هذا ال specialist
+
+212
+00:15:40,820 --> 00:15:44,640
+اللي هم الناس الموجودين في ال .. في ال .. في ال
+
+213
+00:15:44,640 --> 00:15:48,840
+financial market في جوا السوق receiving orders
+
+214
+00:15:49,860 --> 00:15:52,320
+receiving يعني بيستلموا orders buying and selling
+
+215
+00:15:52,320 --> 00:15:58,840
+هلأ هذا عنده inventory خلينا نفترض هذا المخزون
+
+216
+00:15:58,840 --> 00:16:03,760
+number of stock عدد من أسهم خلينا نفكر أن هذا عنده
+
+217
+00:16:03,760 --> 00:16:08,580
+هذا المبلغ أو هذا الرقم من ال stocks مثلا عنده
+
+218
+00:16:08,580 --> 00:16:12,640
+أشرين مليون stock هذا ال dealer أو هذا ال
+
+219
+00:16:12,640 --> 00:16:17,080
+specialist هلأ هذا ال specialist he or she bought
+
+220
+00:16:17,080 --> 00:16:21,720
+in his mindthis is the inventory .. the acceptable
+
+221
+00:16:21,720 --> 00:16:25,640
+inventory level حسب الخبرة تبعته هو بيقول أنه
+
+222
+00:16:25,640 --> 00:16:28,580
+المخزون اللي بلزمني كل يوم بلزمني هيك عشرين مليون
+
+223
+00:16:28,580 --> 00:16:31,540
+يكون عندى ببيع منه و باشت منه يعني زي مثلا أنتوا
+
+224
+00:16:31,540 --> 00:16:36,200
+تروحوا على الكزية تبعت ال .. مثلا كزية الطرزي مثلا
+
+225
+00:16:36,200 --> 00:16:40,690
+اللي في شارع التلاتين آخر هذاهو كيف يعمل حسبته؟
+
+226
+00:16:40,690 --> 00:16:44,330
+بيقول أنا مثلا بال .. باليوم ببيعه .. ببيع حوالي
+
+227
+00:16:44,330 --> 00:16:48,470
+مثلا عشرة .. خمسة مليون لتر مثلا أو مثلا خمس ألف
+
+228
+00:16:48,470 --> 00:16:52,850
+لتر So why he keep more than five thousands؟ ليش
+
+229
+00:16:52,850 --> 00:16:57,130
+هو مثلا ي .. يكون عنده أكتر من خمس ألف؟ هذا الرجال
+
+230
+00:16:57,130 --> 00:16:59,810
+specialist عنده twenty million and he think that
+
+231
+00:16:59,810 --> 00:17:04,550
+twenty million is fine طيبهلأ بيصير receiving the
+
+232
+00:17:04,550 --> 00:17:08,190
+orders بصير ال orders تيجي ال orders بتيجي حكينا
+
+233
+00:17:08,190 --> 00:17:11,870
+من الناس الموجودين هون اللي بيعته إشارات و ال
+
+234
+00:17:11,870 --> 00:17:14,810
+orders تيجي من وين من ال dealers اللي برا okay
+
+235
+00:17:14,810 --> 00:17:17,750
+بتصلوا فيه هاي ال specialist قاعد هون and
+
+236
+00:17:17,750 --> 00:17:22,350
+receiving orders هلأ بيصير buy and sell أثناء ال
+
+237
+00:17:22,350 --> 00:17:28,290
+buy و ال sell كان ال buying to thedealers is more
+
+238
+00:17:28,290 --> 00:17:32,570
+than the selling يعني هو باع أكتر من اشتراه فال
+
+239
+00:17:32,570 --> 00:17:37,350
+inventory يزيد ولا ينقص؟ هينقص هيصير ال inventory
+
+240
+00:17:37,350 --> 00:17:41,230
+تطلعه هذا هنا هذا the previous inventory يعني زي
+
+241
+00:17:41,230 --> 00:17:49,630
+خزان المي بنفكر هاي هذا هينزل لهنا طبعا هو ايش؟
+
+242
+00:17:49,630 --> 00:17:55,840
+هينزل هال inventory تبعته شو هيصير فيها هتنزلSo in
+
+243
+00:17:55,840 --> 00:17:58,420
+this case nobody knows, be careful here, this is
+
+244
+00:17:58,420 --> 00:18:01,860
+the .. this is the work, nobody knows what is the
+
+245
+00:18:01,860 --> 00:18:06,100
+inventory level of the specialist محدش بعرف قداش
+
+246
+00:18:06,100 --> 00:18:09,960
+.. قداش عنده مخزون This particular information is
+
+247
+00:18:09,960 --> 00:18:13,640
+related to the .. this specialist and sometimes
+
+248
+00:18:13,640 --> 00:18:16,810
+some information is leaking to the dealersبعض
+
+249
+00:18:16,810 --> 00:18:20,330
+المعلومات ممكن leaking يعني تتسرب to the dealers
+
+250
+00:18:20,330 --> 00:18:23,470
+فمين بيكون عنده المعلومات الأساسية هو ال
+
+251
+00:18:23,470 --> 00:18:27,290
+specialist و بعد هيك اللي هو ال dealers طيب، هلأ
+
+252
+00:18:27,290 --> 00:18:33,230
+إيش هيسوي؟ إيش هيسوي ال .. ال .. ال .. ال dealer؟
+
+253
+00:18:33,230 --> 00:18:37,770
+ال specialist؟ هيرفع السعر ولا يخفض السعر؟هيرفع
+
+254
+00:18:37,770 --> 00:18:44,110
+السعر ليش؟ لأن المخزون تبعه انخفض فهو هيحاول يقلل
+
+255
+00:18:44,110 --> 00:18:48,210
+الطلب على المخزون تبعه عشان يعمل ويغر الناس انه
+
+256
+00:18:48,210 --> 00:18:52,150
+انا بقى اشتري منكم I'm buying فبتحول ان هو يعمل
+
+257
+00:18:52,150 --> 00:18:56,270
+buying okay so he is interested in buying more
+
+258
+00:18:56,270 --> 00:19:01,230
+than selling if he continues in the previous price
+
+259
+00:19:01,230 --> 00:19:04,970
+اذا بقاله استمر على ال previous price so it means
+
+260
+00:19:08,480 --> 00:19:14,780
+الانفجار يتخلص من انفجاره
+
+261
+00:19:14,780 --> 00:19:22,000
+و لا يوجد عمل فهو شو حيسه هو هيعمل increase لل
+
+262
+00:19:22,000 --> 00:19:27,180
+price فعندما يزيد ال price مصادر موجودين هناك
+
+263
+00:19:27,180 --> 00:19:32,380
+يلاحظون أن المستخدمين يجعلون ال price أعلى لذلك هم
+
+264
+00:19:32,380 --> 00:19:38,520
+مهتمون بالشراء منهفبصيروا هم يروحوا يشتريوا منه to
+
+265
+00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:42,440
+sell to him يعني يبيعوله يبيعوله فلما يبيعوله هو
+
+266
+00:19:42,440 --> 00:19:48,680
+هيشتري فهتيجي ال what ال inventory هتزيد so again
+
+267
+00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:55,940
+so the now he has inventory more than his level
+
+268
+00:19:55,940 --> 00:19:59,900
+فإيش هيسوي هان؟ هيعمل selling هيعمل selling هينزل
+
+269
+00:19:59,900 --> 00:20:06,390
+ال price طبعا ال price because your levelin this
+
+270
+00:20:06,390 --> 00:20:10,050
+in your level I'm giving you example how he or she
+
+271
+00:20:10,050 --> 00:20:12,890
+plays in the prize but sometimes
+
+272
+00:20:15,320 --> 00:20:19,740
+the dealers are smart and if he change the price
+
+273
+00:20:19,740 --> 00:20:23,400
+it means they will understand what is the level of
+
+274
+00:20:23,400 --> 00:20:27,560
+the dealer of the specialist يعني إذا هو بي .. بي
+
+275
+00:20:27,560 --> 00:20:31,600
+.. بيغير و بيبدل في السعر فهو الناس اللي برا هتعرف
+
+276
+00:20:31,600 --> 00:20:34,580
+انه what is the level of the .. of the specialist
+
+277
+00:20:34,580 --> 00:20:40,420
+so in this case and the specialists are smart so
+
+278
+00:20:40,420 --> 00:20:43,520
+they can do different things which is not related
+
+279
+00:20:43,520 --> 00:20:48,080
+to your levelيعني هو هيعمل شغلات أخرى مش هيلعب بال
+
+280
+00:20:48,080 --> 00:20:52,720
+price هيخل الناس هي اللي تروح تغير السعر بطريقته
+
+281
+00:20:52,720 --> 00:20:58,120
+المخصصة مثلا what he can do is spread the bid ask
+
+282
+00:20:58,120 --> 00:21:05,180
+spread or spread the let's say the narrow and wide
+
+283
+00:21:05,180 --> 00:21:08,880
+the spread between the bid and ask يعني إيش هيعمل؟
+
+284
+00:21:08,880 --> 00:21:13,290
+ال bid and askبالظبط يا ما بيعمل واسع يا ما بيعمل
+
+285
+00:21:13,290 --> 00:21:18,430
+ضيق فإذا هو is interested فهيعمل narrow down إذا
+
+286
+00:21:18,430 --> 00:21:21,450
+كان interested بده يشتري فهو بيعمل narrow down إذا
+
+287
+00:21:21,450 --> 00:21:25,930
+كان is not interested فبيعمل wide بوسع ال spread
+
+288
+00:21:25,930 --> 00:21:33,350
+and there are other policies it can be done by the
+
+289
+00:21:33,350 --> 00:21:40,230
+specialist to manage the priceشوفتوا كيف ال prices
+
+290
+00:21:40,230 --> 00:21:42,830
+بال financial market how it works؟ يعني it doesn't
+
+291
+00:21:42,830 --> 00:21:46,230
+work according what people saying technical
+
+292
+00:21:46,230 --> 00:21:49,850
+analysis and using a chart بعض الناس يعني some ..
+
+293
+00:21:49,850 --> 00:21:53,510
+some .. some people they think the prices follow
+
+294
+00:21:53,510 --> 00:21:58,070
+the chartيعني الناس بتفكر انه .. انه ال chart هو
+
+295
+00:21:58,070 --> 00:22:02,270
+اللي بيحرك السعر، روح على شركة البساطة أو روح على
+
+296
+00:22:02,270 --> 00:22:04,890
+اللي هذا أو اسأله، هتلاقي الناس بيقولك اه انا ب ..
+
+297
+00:22:04,890 --> 00:22:07,430
+اذا فهمت ال chart، اذا انا .. ممكن انا أشتري و
+
+298
+00:22:07,430 --> 00:22:10,290
+أبيع، but this is not related، هي the price is
+
+299
+00:22:10,290 --> 00:22:17,500
+related to something else، okay؟So the specialists
+
+300
+00:22:17,500 --> 00:22:20,740
+here are maintaining .. maintaining the ..
+
+301
+00:22:20,740 --> 00:22:26,100
+maintaining the price aiming that the price
+
+302
+00:22:26,100 --> 00:22:29,980
+represent the true price يعني هدفهم أنه السعر
+
+303
+00:22:29,980 --> 00:22:34,320
+العادل طبعا هذا السعر العادل شايفين فمرات بطلع فوق
+
+304
+00:22:34,320 --> 00:22:36,740
+السعر و مرات بنزل بس هذا هو السعر العادل according
+
+305
+00:22:36,740 --> 00:22:39,140
+to the inventory of the dealer
+
+306
+00:22:43,890 --> 00:22:49,230
+لما ينخفض .. ينخفض المخزون لما ينخفض المخزون طبعا
+
+307
+00:22:49,230 --> 00:22:59,170
+هو شو روح يسوي؟ هيعمل رفع بالسعر اه
+
+308
+00:22:59,170 --> 00:23:04,590
+فهو ايش روح يسوي؟ هيروح يعمل شغلة تانيةهيروح يعمل
+
+309
+00:23:04,590 --> 00:23:08,690
+توسيع لل bid ask script يوسع و يضايق في ال bid ask
+
+310
+00:23:08,690 --> 00:23:11,150
+script فهذه اللي عوبته و أجراء أخرى .. أجراءات
+
+311
+00:23:11,150 --> 00:23:13,350
+أخرى ال number of trades .. في شغلات كتير يعني
+
+312
+00:23:13,350 --> 00:23:17,810
+ممكن هو يسويها حتى انه ي .. يروح .. مايخليش الناس
+
+313
+00:23:17,810 --> 00:23:23,770
+تفهم انه what is his level فهمت كيف؟ يعني مثلا انا
+
+314
+00:23:23,770 --> 00:23:27,130
+.. مثلا انا و انا صاحب مثلا كزية و عشان الناس
+
+315
+00:23:27,130 --> 00:23:31,410
+ماتفهمش انه عندي مخزون مثلا كتيرو انا هنزل السيارة
+
+316
+00:23:31,410 --> 00:23:33,630
+ماروحش بتفجر مع كام تاكسي بقولهم صفوا على باب
+
+317
+00:23:33,630 --> 00:23:37,430
+الكاذي انه في ..فيش عندى مخزون كأنه فهمتوا عليا
+
+318
+00:23:37,430 --> 00:23:41,190
+كيف؟ فالكل هايشعر اه this guy has no inventory
+
+319
+00:23:41,190 --> 00:23:45,250
+تمويه فهمتوا كيف؟ they are using these policies
+
+320
+00:23:45,250 --> 00:23:50,690
+فممكن هم أيش يسووا يعملوا بدأ .. يعني مثلا هذا في
+
+321
+00:23:50,690 --> 00:23:56,540
+واحد بدو يشري مليون سهم okay؟فبكون في اتفاقيات مع
+
+322
+00:23:56,540 --> 00:23:58,980
+ال dealers مليون سهم ممكن يشريهم في صفقة واحدة
+
+323
+00:23:58,980 --> 00:24:02,360
+بيقولوا لأ تشريهم مش في صفقة واحدة اشري المليون
+
+324
+00:24:02,360 --> 00:24:06,320
+سهم مثلا بعشرة صفقات فالناس بتنالها تشوف oh ten
+
+325
+00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:09,400
+transactions ten transactions يعني في demand هان
+
+326
+00:24:09,400 --> 00:24:13,760
+لكن هو demand لصفقة واحدة بس so they can do this
+
+327
+00:24:13,760 --> 00:24:16,400
+and there are other policies when you grow up ان
+
+328
+00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:18,620
+شاء الله لما تكبرى you will understand all of
+
+329
+00:24:18,620 --> 00:24:22,860
+these things when you grow up in finance لما تكبرى
+
+330
+00:24:22,860 --> 00:24:24,360
+بال finance okay
+
+331
+00:24:27,380 --> 00:24:34,480
+Okay very interesting اه اتفضلى ال
+
+332
+00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:37,680
+dealer
+
+333
+00:24:37,680 --> 00:24:42,800
+البرا نفس الشغل ال dealer البرا ما
+
+334
+00:24:42,800 --> 00:24:47,320
+هو هذا الشخص من وين هذا له علاقة مباشرة مع السوق
+
+335
+00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:53,700
+فهو بشتري من السوق نفسه okay لكن مافهمتش بالظبط
+
+336
+00:24:53,700 --> 00:24:54,180
+السؤالك
+
+337
+00:24:59,620 --> 00:25:04,680
+لأ لأ ازاي؟ مين هم ال dealer يعني؟ انا بحكي عن ال
+
+338
+00:25:04,680 --> 00:25:10,560
+specialist ال specialist هذا عنده المخزون عنده
+
+339
+00:25:10,560 --> 00:25:16,480
+أسهم الشركات ببيع و بشري فيها okay هلأ هذا اللي
+
+340
+00:25:16,480 --> 00:25:20,560
+ببيعه الاشتراك هو ببيع و بشري لل dealers من برا
+
+341
+00:25:20,560 --> 00:25:26,410
+مرات بياخد منهم و مرات اياش بيعطيهملكن عنده في حد
+
+342
+00:25:26,410 --> 00:25:32,390
+معين من المخزون، هذا المخزون لا يساوي سفر، هذا لا
+
+343
+00:25:32,390 --> 00:25:37,430
+يساوي سفر، ليش لا يساوي سفر؟ لأنه في ناس برا بدها
+
+344
+00:25:37,430 --> 00:25:41,810
+.. بدها تبيع، فبدا تبيع هو هيش .. هو هيشتري، طبعا
+
+345
+00:25:41,810 --> 00:25:45,310
+ال specialists no way، اه تبقي للكلام، and put
+
+346
+00:25:45,310 --> 00:25:49,370
+many lines under no way، no way to tell the
+
+347
+00:25:49,370 --> 00:25:54,180
+dealers there is no buying and sellingمافيش ممكن
+
+348
+00:25:54,180 --> 00:25:58,620
+يقولهم أنا ببيع ولا باشتري ممنوع .. ممنوع يقولهم
+
+349
+00:25:58,620 --> 00:26:02,880
+.. بيسكروله .. بيقولوله ما .. ماعكاش ترخيص he has
+
+350
+00:26:02,880 --> 00:26:06,880
+to exercise لازم يبيعوا يشتري معهم طبعا شطارته
+
+351
+00:26:06,880 --> 00:26:09,740
+وين؟ شطارته انه how to play in the .. in the price
+
+352
+00:26:09,740 --> 00:26:12,980
+how to play in the bid ask spread how to play in
+
+353
+00:26:12,980 --> 00:26:14,880
+the number of trades how to play on the trading
+
+354
+00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:17,540
+volume how to play blah blah blah blah blah so he
+
+355
+00:26:17,540 --> 00:26:23,470
+has many many policies to doOkay؟ بالأخير نحكيله
+
+356
+00:26:23,470 --> 00:26:26,330
+هذا المخزون بدك تحافظ عليه، بأي طريقة معينة you
+
+357
+00:26:26,330 --> 00:26:32,050
+have to do it، so they are smart بس البارحة كانت
+
+358
+00:26:32,050 --> 00:26:35,250
+مزعجة، يعني كل أسعار الأواطن الرجل كان بيجي
+
+359
+00:26:35,250 --> 00:26:39,690
+أسعاره، يعني هو ما بيجيش و بيعمل، و بيعمل، حتى
+
+360
+00:26:39,690 --> 00:26:44,150
+الآن كلهم .. هم هالأدول كلهم ال dealers بتعاملوا
+
+361
+00:26:44,150 --> 00:26:48,470
+مع one specialistف if this guy decide to make the
+
+362
+00:26:48,470 --> 00:26:52,990
+price up all of these people they follow him if
+
+363
+00:26:52,990 --> 00:26:57,330
+this guy another guy decide that yahoo to go up it
+
+364
+00:26:57,330 --> 00:26:59,490
+means يعني خليني أعطيكي .. this is a good question
+
+365
+00:26:59,490 --> 00:27:04,990
+هلأ إجينا احنا لاقينا بتاع الياهو غالي كتير، إيش
+
+366
+00:27:04,990 --> 00:27:08,550
+هتسوي انت؟ مش حاجة .. مش حاجة .. مو لازم تشتري زي
+
+367
+00:27:08,550 --> 00:27:14,900
+.. هتعمل إيه بقى؟you try to go to the stock that's
+
+368
+00:27:14,900 --> 00:27:20,300
+similar to yahoo هتروحي على شغلة مشابهة يعني مثلا
+
+369
+00:27:20,300 --> 00:27:25,800
+انت روحتي على ساجلة بتاعة نوودسية and خلينا نحكي
+
+370
+00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:30,120
+you ask your dad to have some sweets and you went
+
+371
+00:27:30,120 --> 00:27:34,180
+there and the shop is closed your dad cannot say
+
+372
+00:27:34,180 --> 00:27:37,260
+to you sorry it's closed he will go to another
+
+373
+00:27:37,260 --> 00:27:41,490
+shopor similar shop فهلا لو احنا هذا ال .. هلا ال
+
+374
+00:27:41,490 --> 00:27:44,910
+price is going up فهيروحوا على شغلة is mimic or
+
+375
+00:27:44,910 --> 00:27:48,770
+copy يهو which is google هلا بروح على ال google
+
+376
+00:27:48,770 --> 00:27:51,870
+بتاع ال google is smart he knows this guy is
+
+377
+00:27:51,870 --> 00:27:55,010
+making the price up so he try to make it up but
+
+378
+00:27:55,010 --> 00:27:58,530
+less than the .. less than the .. the .. the يهو
+
+379
+00:27:58,530 --> 00:28:04,640
+فبصير ال .. the prices is going up مع بعضbecause
+
+380
+00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:07,040
+people tried لما هذا ال shop مسكرا هيروح تسانى و
+
+381
+00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:10,120
+بتسالى حتون فعشان هيك هذا بيسمون ال ايه ايش ال co
+
+382
+00:28:10,120 --> 00:28:20,840
+-movement ايش اسمه افهموها هذه بقى co
+
+383
+00:28:20,840 --> 00:28:26,000
+-movement يعني مثلا افهمكوا ال co-movement يعني
+
+384
+00:28:26,000 --> 00:28:30,500
+اللي بيمشوا مع بعض يعني هلا مثلا لينا شوية مشغولة
+
+385
+00:28:30,500 --> 00:28:34,690
+بال .. بال texting people يعنىيعني هلأ مثلا لينا و
+
+386
+00:28:34,690 --> 00:28:39,990
+نهلا they are friends فهلأ إذا نهلا غابت ممكن لينا
+
+387
+00:28:39,990 --> 00:28:46,030
+تغيب و العكس صحيح و العكس إيش؟ و العكس صحيح هذا
+
+388
+00:28:46,030 --> 00:28:50,890
+إيش بيسموه؟ بيسموه co-movement فهلأ بالأسواق في ال
+
+389
+00:28:50,890 --> 00:28:53,330
+.. في ال financial market إذا كان فيه سهم is a
+
+390
+00:28:53,330 --> 00:28:58,050
+leader stock فهذا إذا طلع هيطلع مع ال other stocks
+
+391
+00:28:58,050 --> 00:29:03,580
+ليش؟ why؟ يعني إذا كان هذا leader stockمثلا IBM
+
+392
+00:29:03,580 --> 00:29:10,120
+طبعا ال IBM خلاني نحكي انه industrial company
+
+393
+00:29:10,120 --> 00:29:14,780
+خلاني نيجي مثلا بلاش IBM نحكي مثلا شركة ال IT
+
+394
+00:29:14,780 --> 00:29:23,000
+Cisco شركة hardware هلأ هذه اذا طلعت في other
+
+395
+00:29:23,000 --> 00:29:26,340
+companies هتروح ايش هتسوي الشركة هذه هتاخدهم معاها
+
+396
+00:29:26,930 --> 00:29:30,190
+هتطلعوا معاها ليش؟ لإنه some investors if they
+
+397
+00:29:30,190 --> 00:29:34,350
+fail to buy this they try to buy this إذا هم مش
+
+398
+00:29:34,350 --> 00:29:38,040
+قادرين يشتريوا هذه هيروحوا يشتريوا اللي زيهافهتروح
+
+399
+00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:42,180
+الأسعار تمشي مع بعض فهي زي فاطمة asking all the
+
+400
+00:29:42,180 --> 00:29:46,000
+prices going up why because the price moving
+
+401
+00:29:46,000 --> 00:29:49,460
+together بيمشوا مع بعض لأن ال investors they have
+
+402
+00:29:49,460 --> 00:29:53,860
+to buy or they have to sell and vice versa كمان
+
+403
+00:29:53,860 --> 00:29:58,920
+إذا كنت بدك تبيعي فبتضطر كمان أن كل الأسواق تنزل و
+
+404
+00:29:58,920 --> 00:30:02,480
+هذا كمان الجميل فيه أن الأسواق العالمية كمان يعني
+
+405
+00:30:02,480 --> 00:30:06,300
+هلأ مثلا بتشوف إذا New York Stock Exchangeارتفع
+
+406
+00:30:06,300 --> 00:30:10,840
+هتلاقي لندن ارتفعتو Frankfurt هترتفع .. هترتفع
+
+407
+00:30:10,840 --> 00:30:15,000
+okay و ممكن كمان اكتر من هيك اذا مثلا باريستان
+
+408
+00:30:15,000 --> 00:30:17,640
+السوق exchange ارتفع القاهرة ارتفعت ممكن السوق
+
+409
+00:30:17,640 --> 00:30:20,280
+الفلسطيني يرتفع السوق عالمان يرتفع و هكذا هاي
+
+410
+00:30:20,280 --> 00:30:24,220
+بيسموه is a co-movement between the markets طبعا
+
+411
+00:30:24,220 --> 00:30:28,500
+مش هذا الإجابة ال .. ال .. ال final answer this is
+
+412
+00:30:28,500 --> 00:30:30,920
+not the final answer the final answer في عندنا
+
+413
+00:30:30,920 --> 00:30:33,820
+كمان إجابات أخرى انه psychology of the investors
+
+414
+00:30:33,820 --> 00:30:36,620
+هذا هتاخدوها بال behavior of the financeيعني ايش
+
+415
+00:30:36,620 --> 00:30:40,160
+what it means psychology يعني هلأ مثلا انتوا
+
+416
+00:30:40,160 --> 00:30:44,440
+اشتريتوا ساهم في في نيورك و بدأت الأسعار تنخفض
+
+417
+00:30:44,440 --> 00:30:48,720
+فالشخص اللي اللي موجود في لندن قاعد بيشوف نيورك
+
+418
+00:30:48,720 --> 00:30:54,480
+بتنزل فهو هيبيع لإنه بخاف انه هو بتعرف لندن هتنزل
+
+419
+00:30:54,480 --> 00:30:57,100
+اللي في فرانكولتر في في دبي شايفين الأوضاع قاعدة
+
+420
+00:30:57,100 --> 00:31:00,020
+بتنزل غد فهيضطروا كمان هم يبيعوا فهي لإنه because
+
+421
+00:31:00,020 --> 00:31:02,480
+psychology نوع من ال .. عارف ايه يعني ال
+
+422
+00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:07,620
+psychology نفسية المستخدمينOkay دي .. هدا هتاخدوها
+
+423
+00:31:07,620 --> 00:31:12,060
+بال financial behavior طبعا هذا ال أنثى اللي
+
+424
+00:31:12,060 --> 00:31:14,780
+حكيناها في New York Stock Exchange بيطبقها New
+
+425
+00:31:14,780 --> 00:31:16,720
+York Stock Exchange اللي هو ال specialist market
+
+426
+00:31:16,720 --> 00:31:22,400
+okay الأنظمة الإلكترونية اللي بتم تطبيقها كيف
+
+427
+00:31:22,400 --> 00:31:25,760
+بتعاملوا ال specialist كيف بيحكوا مع بعض عبارة عن
+
+428
+00:31:25,760 --> 00:31:29,760
+أنظمة إلكترونية مثلا زي sober dot ال .. ال orders
+
+429
+00:31:29,760 --> 00:31:35,140
+كلها بتتنفذ إلكترونيا direct plusكل المعاملات تم
+
+430
+00:31:35,140 --> 00:31:37,500
+تطبيقها إلكترونية، there is no intervention by the
+
+431
+00:31:37,500 --> 00:31:43,900
+human being، مافيش تدخل للبشر، يعني هلأ بدك تشتري،
+
+432
+00:31:43,900 --> 00:31:47,990
+مباشرة بتشتري، بخسر من حسابك بالبنكما تروحش تجيب
+
+433
+00:31:47,990 --> 00:31:51,890
+شكات لحاله هم النظام الإلكتروني بياخد مصاري منك و
+
+434
+00:31:51,890 --> 00:31:54,410
+بيحطهم في حساب الوسيط و بعدين بياخد من حساب الوسيط
+
+435
+00:31:54,410 --> 00:31:58,010
+و بيحطهم بحساب البايع كله is electronic بيجيكي
+
+436
+00:31:58,010 --> 00:32:00,710
+take message بيقولك انه احنا we deducted this
+
+437
+00:32:00,710 --> 00:32:03,230
+amount from your bank account يعني احنا أخدنا هذا
+
+438
+00:32:03,230 --> 00:32:06,330
+الفلوس من حسابك في البنك مافيش a human
+
+439
+00:32:06,330 --> 00:32:09,900
+intervention just people are observingال people
+
+440
+00:32:09,900 --> 00:32:13,300
+ايش؟ just بلاحظوا and see and they intervene
+
+441
+00:32:13,300 --> 00:32:17,060
+sometimes in the .. in the block trades block
+
+442
+00:32:17,060 --> 00:32:19,480
+trade يعني الصفقات الكبيرة people intervene in
+
+443
+00:32:19,480 --> 00:32:25,120
+these trades الأشخاص بتدخلوا فيها okay حكينا عن ال
+
+444
+00:32:25,120 --> 00:32:29,380
+ECN و حكينا ال major ECN ال nasdaq market flash
+
+445
+00:32:29,380 --> 00:32:33,140
+trading هو نوع من برمجيات الحواسيب اللي بتستخدم
+
+446
+00:32:33,140 --> 00:32:37,480
+flash trading okay نقف عند ال bond trading
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/gkra4OnatfM_raw.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/gkra4OnatfM_raw.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..3571e2f245b1dda298ae4c178672a52f97042e49
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/gkra4OnatfM_raw.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1784 @@
+1
+00:00:20,650 --> 00:00:25,070
+مرة ساعتين كنا نحكي في موضوع ال .. أنواع ال .. ال
+
+2
+00:00:25,070 --> 00:00:27,870
+order markets و حكينا فيه نوعين رئيسيا في ال order
+
+3
+00:00:27,870 --> 00:00:31,930
+markets ال market order و حكينا ال price
+
+4
+00:00:31,930 --> 00:00:36,650
+contingent order خلينا نحكي على ال .. ال price
+
+5
+00:00:36,650 --> 00:00:40,370
+contingent order أنا بعتقد أنه أعطيتكم مثال عليه
+
+6
+00:00:40,370 --> 00:00:43,720
+لما حكينا على ال mobileلما حكينا عن الموضوع ال
+
+7
+00:00:43,720 --> 00:00:49,080
+mobile نشتري و نبدأ في بيع و بعدين بيفتم عملية
+
+8
+00:00:49,080 --> 00:00:52,440
+الشراء فبنعمل فيه شغل اسمه stop buy order و stop
+
+9
+00:00:52,440 --> 00:00:57,580
+sell order تمام هذا الكلام احنا شرحناه هلأ بعد
+
+10
+00:00:57,580 --> 00:01:01,180
+الموجود نحكي عن ال trading mechanisms ال trading
+
+11
+00:01:01,180 --> 00:01:01,720
+mechanisms
+
+12
+00:01:06,650 --> 00:01:11,950
+بتعني أنظمة التعامل بالأسواق المالية trading
+
+13
+00:01:11,950 --> 00:01:17,910
+mechanisms اللي هي صفحة 15 على ال slides trading
+
+14
+00:01:17,910 --> 00:01:23,730
+mechanisms في trading mechanisms كيف الأسواق
+
+15
+00:01:23,730 --> 00:01:29,370
+المالية بتتم تنظيمها حكينا في ال dealer markets
+
+16
+00:01:29,370 --> 00:01:33,430
+اللي هو أسواق ال dealersو عارفين احنا ال dealers
+
+17
+00:01:33,430 --> 00:01:36,030
+market انهم بيبيعوا بيشتريوا من المخزون تبعهم
+
+18
+00:01:36,030 --> 00:01:41,110
+inventory okay طبعا
+
+19
+00:01:41,110 --> 00:01:47,050
+اهم سوق ال dealer market هو سوق نازدك نازدك نازدك
+
+20
+00:01:47,050 --> 00:01:54,590
+مش المؤشر اسمه سوق نازدك okay ال nasdaq هو سوق بين
+
+21
+00:01:54,590 --> 00:02:00,280
+ال dealers يعني مايكونش في علاقة بين ال nasdaqأو
+
+22
+00:02:00,280 --> 00:02:03,300
+بين ال dealers الموجودين بالناس ده كمع اللي هو ال
+
+23
+00:02:03,300 --> 00:02:06,460
+real financial market هم بيبيعوا بيشتريوا بين بعض
+
+24
+00:02:06,460 --> 00:02:09,800
+ال dealers يعني أي investors بديه يشتري أو يبيع ب
+
+25
+00:02:09,800 --> 00:02:15,860
+.. من خلال ال dealers okay فهذا بيسموه يعني زي
+
+26
+00:02:15,860 --> 00:02:19,100
+احنا بنحكي مثلا سوق الدلالين مثلا او ال .. بيكونوا
+
+27
+00:02:19,100 --> 00:02:22,940
+سوق بيناتهم مع بعض هم يعني مثلا خلنا نحكي الخان
+
+28
+00:02:22,940 --> 00:02:26,930
+اللي في السوق هذا في سوق فراسالصبح يعني الناس يمكن
+
+29
+00:02:26,930 --> 00:02:29,170
+الساعة تلاتة أو الساعة أربعة الصبح بيروحوا على
+
+30
+00:02:29,170 --> 00:02:32,750
+السوق اللي هو الخان في الخان فيه dealers بيكونوا
+
+31
+00:02:32,750 --> 00:02:36,970
+فال dealers هم بيبيعوا و بيشتريوا لبعض من بعض فال
+
+32
+00:02:36,970 --> 00:02:39,850
+investors او الناس ال individual زي و زيك ممنوع
+
+33
+00:02:39,850 --> 00:02:43,650
+انهم يدخلوا في هذا المكان فهم بتعاملوا لو بدهم
+
+34
+00:02:43,650 --> 00:02:46,110
+يشتريوا و بيبيعوا من ال dealer بعد ما يخلص السوق
+
+35
+00:02:46,110 --> 00:02:48,250
+هذا فيروحوا هم بيشتغلوا مع ال .. بيشتريوا و
+
+36
+00:02:48,250 --> 00:02:53,450
+بيبيعوافالنازدك هو من أكبر الأسواق المالية لأسواق
+
+37
+00:02:53,450 --> 00:02:57,570
+ال dealers هم أكبر سوق موجود في .. في العالم
+
+38
+00:02:57,570 --> 00:03:05,630
+بتعامله من خلال ال dealers okay؟ في كمان سوق New
+
+39
+00:03:05,630 --> 00:03:08,670
+York Stock Exchange لأ New York Stock Exchange هو
+
+40
+00:03:08,670 --> 00:03:12,090
+مش .. مش dealer markets هنحكي في New York Stock
+
+41
+00:03:12,090 --> 00:03:15,830
+Exchange okay؟
+
+42
+00:03:15,830 --> 00:03:22,150
+في عندنا اللي هو ال ECNال electronic communication
+
+43
+00:03:22,150 --> 00:03:28,590
+networks ال ACMs هي تشبه ال dealer market بالظبط
+
+44
+00:03:28,590 --> 00:03:32,650
+لكن ال networking between the dealers is through
+
+45
+00:03:32,650 --> 00:03:36,450
+the computer system يعني شبكة الرابط بين ال
+
+46
+00:03:36,450 --> 00:03:41,850
+dealers is the computer system بدل ما هم ال dealer
+
+47
+00:03:41,850 --> 00:03:46,210
+يرتقيوا مع بعضOkay و .. and they talk to each
+
+48
+00:03:46,210 --> 00:03:50,370
+other physically or face to face they use their
+
+49
+00:03:50,370 --> 00:03:54,230
+own computer and they can practice the .. the
+
+50
+00:03:54,230 --> 00:03:56,550
+trading through the computer system they .. they
+
+51
+00:03:56,550 --> 00:04:00,330
+don't need to face .. to face meeting يعني هم ال
+
+52
+00:04:00,330 --> 00:04:04,430
+dealer اللي هدول ال ACN's هي شبكات إلكترونية بتربط
+
+53
+00:04:04,430 --> 00:04:10,070
+ال .. ال dealer في بعض فهم بدل ما هم ي ..يعني
+
+54
+00:04:10,070 --> 00:04:15,570
+يلتقيوا في مكان physically جسديا face to face فهم
+
+55
+00:04:15,570 --> 00:04:19,070
+بيواجدوا الأنظمة الإلكترونية النظام الإلكتروني
+
+56
+00:04:19,070 --> 00:04:25,610
+يعني مثلا لو كان عندي أنا هنا investor بتعامل مع
+
+57
+00:04:25,610 --> 00:04:28,510
+.. مع سوق ال ACN's اللي هو Electronic
+
+58
+00:04:28,510 --> 00:04:33,450
+Communication Networks فهو في .. بيكون عنده شبكة
+
+59
+00:04:33,450 --> 00:04:37,430
+جهاز حسوب هذا الجهاز الحسوب is connected with the
+
+60
+00:04:37,430 --> 00:04:42,800
+dealerOkay and the dealer is connected with other
+
+61
+00:04:42,800 --> 00:04:46,740
+dealer So if this guy want to buy or sell a
+
+62
+00:04:46,740 --> 00:04:50,440
+particular shares Okay if this guy wants to buy
+
+63
+00:04:50,440 --> 00:04:54,800
+and sell a particular shares These orders is go
+
+64
+00:04:54,800 --> 00:04:58,140
+through the networks يعني مثلا إنه هذا بدي يعمل
+
+65
+00:04:58,140 --> 00:05:06,580
+buy لأسهم for instance Yahoo So he want to buyand
+
+66
+00:05:06,580 --> 00:05:10,400
+we said if anyone want to buy there is an other
+
+67
+00:05:10,400 --> 00:05:13,760
+side there is one to sell يعني إذا كان واحد بده
+
+68
+00:05:13,760 --> 00:05:16,840
+يشتري في واحد على الطرف الآخر بيكون بده يبيع وهذا
+
+69
+00:05:16,840 --> 00:05:20,260
+بيتعامل مع ال dealer هذه ال buy تبعت هذا الشخص
+
+70
+00:05:20,260 --> 00:05:24,000
+اللي بتظهر عند ال dealer تبعته ال will appear in
+
+71
+00:05:24,000 --> 00:05:29,080
+other people computers يعني إذا هذا بده يشتري صحيح
+
+72
+00:05:29,080 --> 00:05:32,800
+هو بيتعامل مع ال dealer هذا لكن هتظهر الشراء هتظهر
+
+73
+00:05:32,800 --> 00:05:37,100
+عند الآخرين على ال networksso anybody is
+
+74
+00:05:37,100 --> 00:05:40,860
+interested on selling this يعني إذا أي واحد معني
+
+75
+00:05:40,860 --> 00:05:46,180
+يبيعه فهيصير البيع لهذا الشخص يعني مش شرط إنه احنا
+
+76
+00:05:46,180 --> 00:05:49,580
+فقط إذا احنا بدنا نشتري من dealer معين إنه يتم
+
+77
+00:05:49,580 --> 00:05:52,280
+تنفيذ الصفقة من هذا ال dealer ممكن تنفيذ الصفقة
+
+78
+00:05:52,280 --> 00:05:57,060
+عبر other dealers other dealers و هم يشتريوا يعني
+
+79
+00:05:57,060 --> 00:06:01,520
+مثلا خلينا نحكي بالبلد يعني لو هذا ال buyer بده
+
+80
+00:06:01,520 --> 00:06:05,750
+يشتري بندورة مثلا خليني أحكي ببساطةفهو بطلب منه I
+
+81
+00:06:05,750 --> 00:06:10,510
+want to buy مثلا tomatoes اللي هو بندورة هذا ..
+
+82
+00:06:10,510 --> 00:06:14,630
+هدول هيظهر عندهم على الشاشة أنه هذا الشخص بده
+
+83
+00:06:14,630 --> 00:06:18,230
+يشتري بندورة so other people ممكن هذا ماينفذش معاه
+
+84
+00:06:18,230 --> 00:06:21,230
+ممكن ال dealer هذا يدخل و يقوله okay I sell you
+
+85
+00:06:21,230 --> 00:06:22,770
+أنا أبيعك أنا ببيعك
+
+86
+00:06:38,110 --> 00:06:39,510
+فبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتبتب
+
+87
+00:06:46,560 --> 00:06:50,760
+أه شفافية عالية جدا و يعني مثلا أعطيكوا مثال مثلا
+
+88
+00:06:50,760 --> 00:06:56,520
+مرة Hillary Clinton بتاعة بتعرفوا زوجة Hillary
+
+89
+00:06:56,520 --> 00:06:59,860
+Clinton الآن هي بس هي كانت زوجة Clinton صح أيام ما
+
+90
+00:06:59,860 --> 00:07:03,740
+كان هو رئيس الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية فكانت عملت
+
+91
+00:07:03,740 --> 00:07:08,550
+شرا فكان كل الناس عرفوا أن هي قاعدة بتشتريbecause
+
+92
+00:07:08,550 --> 00:07:13,250
+this is ASEAN market electronic market and each or
+
+93
+00:07:13,250 --> 00:07:15,830
+every single transaction it will be known by
+
+94
+00:07:15,830 --> 00:07:20,170
+others يعني مافيش فيها كل واحد معروف مين بيشتري و
+
+95
+00:07:20,170 --> 00:07:28,390
+مين بيبيع highly transparency market تمام؟ كيف؟
+
+96
+00:07:28,390 --> 00:07:35,750
+انت مجرد تفتح حساب عند dealer واحد و تصير تعمل
+
+97
+00:07:35,750 --> 00:07:36,950
+trade الكل هيشوفك
+
+98
+00:07:39,850 --> 00:07:42,890
+عرفتي؟ يعني هلأ مثلا أنت روحتي على bank فلسطين
+
+99
+00:07:42,890 --> 00:07:48,290
+شركة وساطة مثلا وفتحت حساب عندهم عشان تشتري أسهم
+
+100
+00:07:48,290 --> 00:07:52,410
+من سوق فلسطين أوراق مالية، هلأ لو أنت عملتي order
+
+101
+00:07:52,410 --> 00:07:56,890
+other people .. other people .. other dealers they
+
+102
+00:07:56,890 --> 00:08:00,550
+will see your orderيعني حتى ال dealers التانية مش
+
+103
+00:08:00,550 --> 00:08:04,070
+شركة وساطة مثلا إذا كانت شركة المتحدة شركة سهم
+
+104
+00:08:04,070 --> 00:08:07,890
+okay شركة الوطنية هدول شركات الأوراق المالية أو ال
+
+105
+00:08:07,890 --> 00:08:12,490
+dealers هيشوف ال order تبعتك و .. و المفروض مثلا ب
+
+106
+00:08:12,490 --> 00:08:16,230
+.. ب London مثلا لو أنت حطيت باسمك order كل الناس
+
+107
+00:08:16,230 --> 00:08:21,190
+ال .. ال dealers هشوفوا مين أنت و شو اسمك و ال ..
+
+108
+00:08:21,190 --> 00:08:25,320
+و قدش عدد الأسهم اللي أنت بدكيهافهذه بتعمل high
+
+109
+00:08:25,320 --> 00:08:28,640
+transparency لل .. لل market شوفها فيها عالية كتير
+
+110
+00:08:28,640 --> 00:08:32,540
+okay فش .. there is no privacy here فش خصيصية
+
+111
+00:08:32,540 --> 00:08:37,200
+مافيشش .. عشان هيك في بعض العربان مثلا مابحبوش
+
+112
+00:08:37,200 --> 00:08:41,140
+يدخلوا في أي الأشياء هذه because some .. some
+
+113
+00:08:41,140 --> 00:08:44,180
+particular people مش شرط كمان بعض العرب يعني بعض
+
+114
+00:08:44,180 --> 00:08:46,500
+ال .. some particular people they don't want to ..
+
+115
+00:08:46,500 --> 00:08:49,340
+to engage in this market because it is highly
+
+116
+00:08:49,340 --> 00:08:53,570
+transparency market لأنه highly transparencyOkay
+
+117
+00:08:53,570 --> 00:08:59,130
+because you have to disclose a particular
+
+118
+00:08:59,130 --> 00:09:07,630
+information about yourself للdealers okay طبعا
+
+119
+00:09:07,630 --> 00:09:13,450
+هذا ال ECMs و حكي .. في أنا شغل اسمه specialist
+
+120
+00:09:13,450 --> 00:09:17,250
+markets and I explained two .. two meetings before
+
+121
+00:09:17,250 --> 00:09:20,110
+I explained what it means specialist marketsال
+
+122
+00:09:20,110 --> 00:09:23,670
+specialist markets هي بالظبط تشبه السوق بتاع New
+
+123
+00:09:23,670 --> 00:09:27,350
+York Stock Exchange فأنا أعطيكم مثال لل dealer
+
+124
+00:09:27,350 --> 00:09:30,550
+market هي ال nasdaq و ال specialist market هم
+
+125
+00:09:30,550 --> 00:09:33,770
+الموجودين في New York Stock Exchange هلأ how this
+
+126
+00:09:33,770 --> 00:09:37,290
+market working كيف بيشتغل هذا ال market is
+
+127
+00:09:37,290 --> 00:09:41,590
+different story than the dealer market كيف هذا
+
+128
+00:09:41,590 --> 00:09:45,010
+السوق بيشتغل طريقة تختلف absolutely different than
+
+129
+00:09:45,010 --> 00:09:48,940
+thethe dealer market طريقة بتخلف تماما عن ال
+
+130
+00:09:48,940 --> 00:09:52,160
+dealer market هلا لو أنتوا روحتوا الساعة أربعة
+
+131
+00:09:52,160 --> 00:09:57,640
+مثلا اليوم you open the BBC for instance or CNN or
+
+132
+00:09:57,640 --> 00:10:01,260
+Bloomberg just go to the Bloomberg على ال TV بتاعة
+
+133
+00:10:01,260 --> 00:10:04,260
+ال Bloomberg at four o'clock today just open the
+
+134
+00:10:04,260 --> 00:10:08,540
+channel افتحوا قناة ال Bloomberg okay اللي هي ال
+
+135
+00:10:08,540 --> 00:10:14,930
+BloombergBloomberg is specialized in investments
+
+136
+00:10:14,930 --> 00:10:19,430
+and specialized in business يعني انا كل يوم الصبح
+
+137
+00:10:19,430 --> 00:10:23,370
+I'm listening to Bloomberg and I'm watching some
+
+138
+00:10:23,370 --> 00:10:26,870
+particular reports in Bloomberg هاي Bloomberg
+
+139
+00:10:26,870 --> 00:10:29,410
+متخصصين بال financial market just this specialized
+
+140
+00:10:29,410 --> 00:10:33,350
+in business and financial market هلأ اليوم الساعة
+
+141
+00:10:33,350 --> 00:10:37,870
+أربعة افتحوا Bloomberg هيجي رجع ال هيك at four و
+
+142
+00:10:37,870 --> 00:10:41,740
+معاها مترقة okayI'm talking about now about the
+
+143
+00:10:41,740 --> 00:10:46,060
+New York Stock Exchange and he hit المطرقة on the
+
+144
+00:10:46,060 --> 00:10:48,280
+table it means declaring the starting of the
+
+145
+00:10:48,280 --> 00:10:53,360
+financial markets ببدأ إعلان افتتاح السوق المالي
+
+146
+00:10:53,360 --> 00:10:57,520
+هذا النوع هذا النوع من الأسواق المالية هو بيسموه
+
+147
+00:10:57,520 --> 00:11:00,960
+specialist markets لو أنتوا بتتفرجوا على ال ..
+
+148
+00:11:00,960 --> 00:11:04,120
+just spend five minutes watching to the reports of
+
+149
+00:11:04,120 --> 00:11:07,780
+the Bloomberg طلعوا عن ال report فبتجدوا في ناس في
+
+150
+00:11:07,780 --> 00:11:08,740
+قاعة كبيرة هيك
+
+151
+00:11:12,720 --> 00:11:18,700
+this is a very interesting ففي القاعة مثلا okay
+
+152
+00:11:18,700 --> 00:11:21,740
+بقاعة
+
+153
+00:11:21,740 --> 00:11:26,180
+كبيرة في هون seats أظن شرحتلكم أنا seats مقاعد
+
+154
+00:11:26,180 --> 00:11:32,760
+okay و هون في ناس بيحكوا مع بعض هدول الناس بيحكوا
+
+155
+00:11:32,760 --> 00:11:37,570
+مع بعض بطريقة الإشاراتOkay يعني مثلا بننافس صفقة
+
+156
+00:11:37,570 --> 00:11:42,610
+.. صفقة معينة فهدول مهمتهم to negotiate يفعوضوا
+
+157
+00:11:43,750 --> 00:11:47,470
+Okay بعدين هدول الموجودين ع ال seats هم they
+
+158
+00:11:47,470 --> 00:11:50,550
+receive orders from these people يعني بياخدوا
+
+159
+00:11:50,550 --> 00:11:53,930
+orders من ال people اللي عاملين هذا يعني مثلا واحد
+
+160
+00:11:53,930 --> 00:11:58,570
+بيحكيله انا بدي اشتري IBM هدول الناس بيحكوا مع بعض
+
+161
+00:11:58,570 --> 00:12:02,270
+بدهم يشتريوا IBM فهذا هو specialist في IBM
+
+162
+00:12:02,270 --> 00:12:05,190
+فبيعطوله إشارة انه احنا بنشتري IBM فهو لازم يعطيهم
+
+163
+00:12:05,190 --> 00:12:08,760
+السعر يقوله مديش السعرwhy they call this
+
+164
+00:12:08,760 --> 00:12:14,300
+specialist market because in this market dealers
+
+165
+00:12:14,300 --> 00:12:18,020
+are specialized in a particular stocks يعني ال
+
+166
+00:12:18,020 --> 00:12:21,420
+dealers الموجودين هنا هم متخصصين ب particular
+
+167
+00:12:21,420 --> 00:12:24,880
+stock يعني مانقدر احنا نشتري ال IBM من other
+
+168
+00:12:24,880 --> 00:12:31,980
+specialists so you have to buy and sell IBM from a
+
+169
+00:12:31,980 --> 00:12:36,580
+particular specialist يعني مثلا إذا هذا ببيع IBM
+
+170
+00:12:37,520 --> 00:12:40,680
+هذا بيبيع ياهو مابنقدر احنا نشتري ياهو من هاد
+
+171
+00:12:40,680 --> 00:12:44,840
+نشتري من IBM طب شو دور هدول هدول هم بي .. بي .. بي
+
+172
+00:12:44,840 --> 00:12:47,680
+.. they negotiate on the price and these people
+
+173
+00:12:47,680 --> 00:12:51,220
+that are sitting on the seats are receiving orders
+
+174
+00:12:51,220 --> 00:12:54,660
+from outside هدول الناس اللي بيجلسوا على المقاعة
+
+175
+00:12:54,660 --> 00:12:58,380
+they are receiving orders from outside so from
+
+176
+00:12:58,380 --> 00:13:01,980
+where .. from whom they are receiving ordersthey
+
+177
+00:13:01,980 --> 00:13:06,940
+receive orders from the dealers outside، هلأ احنا
+
+178
+00:13:06,940 --> 00:13:09,920
+حكينا عن ال dealers outside، this is off the
+
+179
+00:13:09,920 --> 00:13:15,040
+market، this is in the marketوهناك نتوارك مرتبط
+
+180
+00:13:15,040 --> 00:13:22,380
+بشركة مخدمة في السوق مع شركة مخدمة في السوق لذلك
+
+181
+00:13:22,380 --> 00:13:25,720
+الناس اللي مقعدة هنا تحصل على أمراض من خلال هاتفين
+
+182
+00:13:25,720 --> 00:13:30,020
+أو إيميالين أو رسائل تكتبية من خلال إتصالات
+
+183
+00:13:30,020 --> 00:13:34,980
+إلكترونية الانترنت وهم يفعلون هذه العملية الناس
+
+184
+00:13:34,980 --> 00:13:38,910
+اللي عالقين هنا مغضبين جدا جدا جداOkay الناس اللي
+
+185
+00:13:38,910 --> 00:13:41,890
+بيشتغلوا هنا هم بيكونوا كتير مشغولين okay and
+
+186
+00:13:41,890 --> 00:13:44,890
+receiving orders من ال .. ال outside و receiving
+
+187
+00:13:44,890 --> 00:13:49,330
+orders من ال people الموجودين هنا okay هذا is a
+
+188
+00:13:49,330 --> 00:13:56,810
+very .. very .. very large markets هذا ال market
+
+189
+00:13:56,810 --> 00:14:00,630
+اللي هو بيسموه specialist marketsوالمثال طبعا ال
+
+190
+00:14:00,630 --> 00:14:03,550
+specialist markets هو ال New York Stock Exchange
+
+191
+00:14:03,550 --> 00:14:07,750
+the importance of specialists .. the importance of
+
+192
+00:14:07,750 --> 00:14:12,770
+specialists هي these people are the .. the best
+
+193
+00:14:12,770 --> 00:14:16,110
+people to know the true price يعني هم أكتر ناس
+
+194
+00:14:16,110 --> 00:14:21,010
+بيعرفوا السعر الحقيقي ل .. لل .. لل .. لل stock
+
+195
+00:14:21,010 --> 00:14:24,830
+because بقدروا هم يعرفوا أداش في supply و أداش في
+
+196
+00:14:24,830 --> 00:14:31,140
+demandقداش عرضوا طلب هدول
+
+197
+00:14:31,140 --> 00:14:33,920
+الناس هما ال market makers هما اللي بيحددوا السوق
+
+198
+00:14:33,920 --> 00:14:41,460
+هدول الناس are market makers because they know
+
+199
+00:14:41,460 --> 00:14:47,820
+what is the demand and supply on a particular
+
+200
+00:14:47,820 --> 00:14:51,000
+stock let's give you example and pay attention for
+
+201
+00:14:51,000 --> 00:14:54,310
+this exampleخلّيني أعطيكوا مثال how they determine
+
+202
+00:14:54,310 --> 00:15:00,850
+the price كيف هم بيحددوا السعر خلّيني أخد
+
+203
+00:15:00,850 --> 00:15:05,250
+specialist معين واحد من ال specialized people and
+
+204
+00:15:05,250 --> 00:15:11,650
+focus how he manage his inventory ال specialist ..
+
+205
+00:15:11,650 --> 00:15:15,210
+خلّيني أحكي specialist number one specialist
+
+206
+00:15:15,210 --> 00:15:21,220
+number one is selling and buying googleبيبيع
+
+207
+00:15:21,220 --> 00:15:26,020
+وبيشتري في إيش؟ في google so he or she is
+
+208
+00:15:26,020 --> 00:15:29,000
+specialized in google okay be attention here
+
+209
+00:15:29,000 --> 00:15:31,900
+please okay والله if you read it thousand times in
+
+210
+00:15:31,900 --> 00:15:34,600
+your textbook you don't understand so be careful
+
+211
+00:15:34,600 --> 00:15:40,820
+with this انتبهوا هنا شوية هلأ هذا ال specialist
+
+212
+00:15:40,820 --> 00:15:44,640
+اللي هم الناس الموجودين في ال .. في ال .. في ال
+
+213
+00:15:44,640 --> 00:15:48,840
+financial market في جوا السوق receiving orders
+
+214
+00:15:49,860 --> 00:15:52,320
+receiving يعني بيستلموا orders buying and selling
+
+215
+00:15:52,320 --> 00:15:58,840
+هلأ هذا عنده inventory خلينا نفترض هذا المخزون
+
+216
+00:15:58,840 --> 00:16:03,760
+number of stock عدد من أسهم خلينا نفكر أن هذا عنده
+
+217
+00:16:03,760 --> 00:16:08,580
+هذا المبلغ أو هذا الرقم من ال stocks مثلا عنده
+
+218
+00:16:08,580 --> 00:16:12,640
+أشرين مليون stock هذا ال dealer أو هذا ال
+
+219
+00:16:12,640 --> 00:16:17,080
+specialist هلأ هذا ال specialist he or she bought
+
+220
+00:16:17,080 --> 00:16:21,720
+in his mindthis is the inventory .. the acceptable
+
+221
+00:16:21,720 --> 00:16:25,640
+inventory level حسب الخبرة تبعته هو بيقول أنه
+
+222
+00:16:25,640 --> 00:16:28,580
+المخزون اللي بلزمني كل يوم بلزمني هيك عشرين مليون
+
+223
+00:16:28,580 --> 00:16:31,540
+يكون عندى ببيع منه و باشت منه يعني زي مثلا أنتوا
+
+224
+00:16:31,540 --> 00:16:36,200
+تروحوا على الكزية تبعت ال .. مثلا كزية الطرزي مثلا
+
+225
+00:16:36,200 --> 00:16:40,690
+اللي في شارع التلاتين آخر هذاهو كيف يعمل حسبته؟
+
+226
+00:16:40,690 --> 00:16:44,330
+بيقول أنا مثلا بال .. باليوم ببيعه .. ببيع حوالي
+
+227
+00:16:44,330 --> 00:16:48,470
+مثلا عشرة .. خمسة مليون لتر مثلا أو مثلا خمس ألف
+
+228
+00:16:48,470 --> 00:16:52,850
+لتر So why he keep more than five thousands؟ ليش
+
+229
+00:16:52,850 --> 00:16:57,130
+هو مثلا ي .. يكون عنده أكتر من خمس ألف؟ هذا الرجال
+
+230
+00:16:57,130 --> 00:16:59,810
+specialist عنده twenty million and he think that
+
+231
+00:16:59,810 --> 00:17:04,550
+twenty million is fine طيبهلأ بيصير receiving the
+
+232
+00:17:04,550 --> 00:17:08,190
+orders بصير ال orders تيجي ال orders بتيجي حكينا
+
+233
+00:17:08,190 --> 00:17:11,870
+من الناس الموجودين هون اللي بيعته إشارات و ال
+
+234
+00:17:11,870 --> 00:17:14,810
+orders تيجي من وين من ال dealers اللي برا okay
+
+235
+00:17:14,810 --> 00:17:17,750
+بتصلوا فيه هاي ال specialist قاعد هون and
+
+236
+00:17:17,750 --> 00:17:22,350
+receiving orders هلأ بيصير buy and sell أثناء ال
+
+237
+00:17:22,350 --> 00:17:28,290
+buy و ال sell كان ال buying to thedealers is more
+
+238
+00:17:28,290 --> 00:17:32,570
+than the selling يعني هو باع أكتر من اشتراه فال
+
+239
+00:17:32,570 --> 00:17:37,350
+inventory يزيد ولا ينقص؟ هينقص هيصير ال inventory
+
+240
+00:17:37,350 --> 00:17:41,230
+تطلعه هذا هنا هذا the previous inventory يعني زي
+
+241
+00:17:41,230 --> 00:17:49,630
+خزان المي بنفكر هاي هذا هينزل لهنا طبعا هو ايش؟
+
+242
+00:17:49,630 --> 00:17:55,840
+هينزل هال inventory تبعته شو هيصير فيها هتنزلSo in
+
+243
+00:17:55,840 --> 00:17:58,420
+this case nobody knows, be careful here, this is
+
+244
+00:17:58,420 --> 00:18:01,860
+the .. this is the work, nobody knows what is the
+
+245
+00:18:01,860 --> 00:18:06,100
+inventory level of the specialist محدش بعرف قداش
+
+246
+00:18:06,100 --> 00:18:09,960
+.. قداش عنده مخزون This particular information is
+
+247
+00:18:09,960 --> 00:18:13,640
+related to the .. this specialist and sometimes
+
+248
+00:18:13,640 --> 00:18:16,810
+some information is leaking to the dealersبعض
+
+249
+00:18:16,810 --> 00:18:20,330
+المعلومات ممكن leaking يعني تتسرب to the dealers
+
+250
+00:18:20,330 --> 00:18:23,470
+فمين بيكون عنده المعلومات الأساسية هو ال
+
+251
+00:18:23,470 --> 00:18:27,290
+specialist و بعد هيك اللي هو ال dealers طيب، هلأ
+
+252
+00:18:27,290 --> 00:18:33,230
+إيش هيسوي؟ إيش هيسوي ال .. ال .. ال .. ال dealer؟
+
+253
+00:18:33,230 --> 00:18:37,770
+ال specialist؟ هيرفع السعر ولا يخفض السعر؟هيرفع
+
+254
+00:18:37,770 --> 00:18:44,110
+السعر ليش؟ لأن المخزون تبعه انخفض فهو هيحاول يقلل
+
+255
+00:18:44,110 --> 00:18:48,210
+الطلب على المخزون تبعه عشان يعمل ويغر الناس انه
+
+256
+00:18:48,210 --> 00:18:52,150
+انا بقى اشتري منكم I'm buying فبتحول ان هو يعمل
+
+257
+00:18:52,150 --> 00:18:56,270
+buying okay so he is interested in buying more
+
+258
+00:18:56,270 --> 00:19:01,230
+than selling if he continues in the previous price
+
+259
+00:19:01,230 --> 00:19:04,970
+اذا بقاله استمر على ال previous price so it means
+
+260
+00:19:08,480 --> 00:19:14,780
+الانفجار يتخلص من انفجاره
+
+261
+00:19:14,780 --> 00:19:22,000
+و لا يوجد عمل فهو شو حيسه هو هيعمل increase لل
+
+262
+00:19:22,000 --> 00:19:27,180
+price فعندما يزيد ال price مصادر موجودين هناك
+
+263
+00:19:27,180 --> 00:19:32,380
+يلاحظون أن المستخدمين يجعلون ال price أعلى لذلك هم
+
+264
+00:19:32,380 --> 00:19:38,520
+مهتمون بالشراء منهفبصيروا هم يروحوا يشتريوا منه to
+
+265
+00:19:38,520 --> 00:19:42,440
+sell to him يعني يبيعوله يبيعوله فلما يبيعوله هو
+
+266
+00:19:42,440 --> 00:19:48,680
+هيشتري فهتيجي ال what ال inventory هتزيد so again
+
+267
+00:19:48,680 --> 00:19:55,940
+so the now he has inventory more than his level
+
+268
+00:19:55,940 --> 00:19:59,900
+فإيش هيسوي هان؟ هيعمل selling هيعمل selling هينزل
+
+269
+00:19:59,900 --> 00:20:06,390
+ال price طبعا ال price because your levelin this
+
+270
+00:20:06,390 --> 00:20:10,050
+in your level I'm giving you example how he or she
+
+271
+00:20:10,050 --> 00:20:12,890
+plays in the prize but sometimes
+
+272
+00:20:15,320 --> 00:20:19,740
+the dealers are smart and if he change the price
+
+273
+00:20:19,740 --> 00:20:23,400
+it means they will understand what is the level of
+
+274
+00:20:23,400 --> 00:20:27,560
+the dealer of the specialist يعني إذا هو بي .. بي
+
+275
+00:20:27,560 --> 00:20:31,600
+.. بيغير و بيبدل في السعر فهو الناس اللي برا هتعرف
+
+276
+00:20:31,600 --> 00:20:34,580
+انه what is the level of the .. of the specialist
+
+277
+00:20:34,580 --> 00:20:40,420
+so in this case and the specialists are smart so
+
+278
+00:20:40,420 --> 00:20:43,520
+they can do different things which is not related
+
+279
+00:20:43,520 --> 00:20:48,080
+to your levelيعني هو هيعمل شغلات أخرى مش هيلعب بال
+
+280
+00:20:48,080 --> 00:20:52,720
+price هيخل الناس هي اللي تروح تغير السعر بطريقته
+
+281
+00:20:52,720 --> 00:20:58,120
+المخصصة مثلا what he can do is spread the bid ask
+
+282
+00:20:58,120 --> 00:21:05,180
+spread or spread the let's say the narrow and wide
+
+283
+00:21:05,180 --> 00:21:08,880
+the spread between the bid and ask يعني إيش هيعمل؟
+
+284
+00:21:08,880 --> 00:21:13,290
+ال bid and askبالظبط يا ما بيعمل واسع يا ما بيعمل
+
+285
+00:21:13,290 --> 00:21:18,430
+ضيق فإذا هو is interested فهيعمل narrow down إذا
+
+286
+00:21:18,430 --> 00:21:21,450
+كان interested بده يشتري فهو بيعمل narrow down إذا
+
+287
+00:21:21,450 --> 00:21:25,930
+كان is not interested فبيعمل wide بوسع ال spread
+
+288
+00:21:25,930 --> 00:21:33,350
+and there are other policies it can be done by the
+
+289
+00:21:33,350 --> 00:21:40,230
+specialist to manage the priceشوفتوا كيف ال prices
+
+290
+00:21:40,230 --> 00:21:42,830
+بال financial market how it works؟ يعني it doesn't
+
+291
+00:21:42,830 --> 00:21:46,230
+work according what people saying technical
+
+292
+00:21:46,230 --> 00:21:49,850
+analysis and using a chart بعض الناس يعني some ..
+
+293
+00:21:49,850 --> 00:21:53,510
+some .. some people they think the prices follow
+
+294
+00:21:53,510 --> 00:21:58,070
+the chartيعني الناس بتفكر انه .. انه ال chart هو
+
+295
+00:21:58,070 --> 00:22:02,270
+اللي بيحرك السعر، روح على شركة البساطة أو روح على
+
+296
+00:22:02,270 --> 00:22:04,890
+اللي هذا أو اسأله، هتلاقي الناس بيقولك اه انا ب ..
+
+297
+00:22:04,890 --> 00:22:07,430
+اذا فهمت ال chart، اذا انا .. ممكن انا أشتري و
+
+298
+00:22:07,430 --> 00:22:10,290
+أبيع، but this is not related، هي the price is
+
+299
+00:22:10,290 --> 00:22:17,500
+related to something else، okay؟So the specialists
+
+300
+00:22:17,500 --> 00:22:20,740
+here are maintaining .. maintaining the ..
+
+301
+00:22:20,740 --> 00:22:26,100
+maintaining the price aiming that the price
+
+302
+00:22:26,100 --> 00:22:29,980
+represent the true price يعني هدفهم أنه السعر
+
+303
+00:22:29,980 --> 00:22:34,320
+العادل طبعا هذا السعر العادل شايفين فمرات بطلع فوق
+
+304
+00:22:34,320 --> 00:22:36,740
+السعر و مرات بنزل بس هذا هو السعر العادل according
+
+305
+00:22:36,740 --> 00:22:39,140
+to the inventory of the dealer
+
+306
+00:22:43,890 --> 00:22:49,230
+لما ينخفض .. ينخفض المخزون لما ينخفض المخزون طبعا
+
+307
+00:22:49,230 --> 00:22:59,170
+هو شو روح يسوي؟ هيعمل رفع بالسعر اه
+
+308
+00:22:59,170 --> 00:23:04,590
+فهو ايش روح يسوي؟ هيروح يعمل شغلة تانيةهيروح يعمل
+
+309
+00:23:04,590 --> 00:23:08,690
+توسيع لل bid ask script يوسع و يضايق في ال bid ask
+
+310
+00:23:08,690 --> 00:23:11,150
+script فهذه اللي عوبته و أجراء أخرى .. أجراءات
+
+311
+00:23:11,150 --> 00:23:13,350
+أخرى ال number of trades .. في شغلات كتير يعني
+
+312
+00:23:13,350 --> 00:23:17,810
+ممكن هو يسويها حتى انه ي .. يروح .. مايخليش الناس
+
+313
+00:23:17,810 --> 00:23:23,770
+تفهم انه what is his level فهمت كيف؟ يعني مثلا انا
+
+314
+00:23:23,770 --> 00:23:27,130
+.. مثلا انا و انا صاحب مثلا كزية و عشان الناس
+
+315
+00:23:27,130 --> 00:23:31,410
+ماتفهمش انه عندي مخزون مثلا كتيرو انا هنزل السيارة
+
+316
+00:23:31,410 --> 00:23:33,630
+ماروحش بتفجر مع كام تاكسي بقولهم صفوا على باب
+
+317
+00:23:33,630 --> 00:23:37,430
+الكاذي انه في ..فيش عندى مخزون كأنه فهمتوا عليا
+
+318
+00:23:37,430 --> 00:23:41,190
+كيف؟ فالكل هايشعر اه this guy has no inventory
+
+319
+00:23:41,190 --> 00:23:45,250
+تمويه فهمتوا كيف؟ they are using these policies
+
+320
+00:23:45,250 --> 00:23:50,690
+فممكن هم أيش يسووا يعملوا بدأ .. يعني مثلا هذا في
+
+321
+00:23:50,690 --> 00:23:56,540
+واحد بدو يشري مليون سهم okay؟فبكون في اتفاقيات مع
+
+322
+00:23:56,540 --> 00:23:58,980
+ال dealers مليون سهم ممكن يشريهم في صفقة واحدة
+
+323
+00:23:58,980 --> 00:24:02,360
+بيقولوا لأ تشريهم مش في صفقة واحدة اشري المليون
+
+324
+00:24:02,360 --> 00:24:06,320
+سهم مثلا بعشرة صفقات فالناس بتنالها تشوف oh ten
+
+325
+00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:09,400
+transactions ten transactions يعني في demand هان
+
+326
+00:24:09,400 --> 00:24:13,760
+لكن هو demand لصفقة واحدة بس so they can do this
+
+327
+00:24:13,760 --> 00:24:16,400
+and there are other policies when you grow up ان
+
+328
+00:24:16,400 --> 00:24:18,620
+شاء الله لما تكبرى you will understand all of
+
+329
+00:24:18,620 --> 00:24:22,860
+these things when you grow up in finance لما تكبرى
+
+330
+00:24:22,860 --> 00:24:24,360
+بال finance okay
+
+331
+00:24:27,380 --> 00:24:34,480
+Okay very interesting اه اتفضلى ال
+
+332
+00:24:34,480 --> 00:24:37,680
+dealer
+
+333
+00:24:37,680 --> 00:24:42,800
+البرا نفس الشغل ال dealer البرا ما
+
+334
+00:24:42,800 --> 00:24:47,320
+هو هذا الشخص من وين هذا له علاقة مباشرة مع السوق
+
+335
+00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:53,700
+فهو بشتري من السوق نفسه okay لكن مافهمتش بالظبط
+
+336
+00:24:53,700 --> 00:24:54,180
+السؤالك
+
+337
+00:24:59,620 --> 00:25:04,680
+لأ لأ ازاي؟ مين هم ال dealer يعني؟ انا بحكي عن ال
+
+338
+00:25:04,680 --> 00:25:10,560
+specialist ال specialist هذا عنده المخزون عنده
+
+339
+00:25:10,560 --> 00:25:16,480
+أسهم الشركات ببيع و بشري فيها okay هلأ هذا اللي
+
+340
+00:25:16,480 --> 00:25:20,560
+ببيعه الاشتراك هو ببيع و بشري لل dealers من برا
+
+341
+00:25:20,560 --> 00:25:26,410
+مرات بياخد منهم و مرات اياش بيعطيهملكن عنده في حد
+
+342
+00:25:26,410 --> 00:25:32,390
+معين من المخزون، هذا المخزون لا يساوي سفر، هذا لا
+
+343
+00:25:32,390 --> 00:25:37,430
+يساوي سفر، ليش لا يساوي سفر؟ لأنه في ناس برا بدها
+
+344
+00:25:37,430 --> 00:25:41,810
+.. بدها تبيع، فبدا تبيع هو هيش .. هو هيشتري، طبعا
+
+345
+00:25:41,810 --> 00:25:45,310
+ال specialists no way، اه تبقي للكلام، and put
+
+346
+00:25:45,310 --> 00:25:49,370
+many lines under no way، no way to tell the
+
+347
+00:25:49,370 --> 00:25:54,180
+dealers there is no buying and sellingمافيش ممكن
+
+348
+00:25:54,180 --> 00:25:58,620
+يقولهم أنا ببيع ولا باشتري ممنوع .. ممنوع يقولهم
+
+349
+00:25:58,620 --> 00:26:02,880
+.. بيسكروله .. بيقولوله ما .. ماعكاش ترخيص he has
+
+350
+00:26:02,880 --> 00:26:06,880
+to exercise لازم يبيعوا يشتري معهم طبعا شطارته
+
+351
+00:26:06,880 --> 00:26:09,740
+وين؟ شطارته انه how to play in the .. in the price
+
+352
+00:26:09,740 --> 00:26:12,980
+how to play in the bid ask spread how to play in
+
+353
+00:26:12,980 --> 00:26:14,880
+the number of trades how to play on the trading
+
+354
+00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:17,540
+volume how to play blah blah blah blah blah so he
+
+355
+00:26:17,540 --> 00:26:23,470
+has many many policies to doOkay؟ بالأخير نحكيله
+
+356
+00:26:23,470 --> 00:26:26,330
+هذا المخزون بدك تحافظ عليه، بأي طريقة معينة you
+
+357
+00:26:26,330 --> 00:26:32,050
+have to do it، so they are smart بس البارحة كانت
+
+358
+00:26:32,050 --> 00:26:35,250
+مزعجة، يعني كل أسعار الأواطن الرجل كان بيجي
+
+359
+00:26:35,250 --> 00:26:39,690
+أسعاره، يعني هو ما بيجيش و بيعمل، و بيعمل، حتى
+
+360
+00:26:39,690 --> 00:26:44,150
+الآن كلهم .. هم هالأدول كلهم ال dealers بتعاملوا
+
+361
+00:26:44,150 --> 00:26:48,470
+مع one specialistف if this guy decide to make the
+
+362
+00:26:48,470 --> 00:26:52,990
+price up all of these people they follow him if
+
+363
+00:26:52,990 --> 00:26:57,330
+this guy another guy decide that yahoo to go up it
+
+364
+00:26:57,330 --> 00:26:59,490
+means يعني خليني أعطيكي .. this is a good question
+
+365
+00:26:59,490 --> 00:27:04,990
+هلأ إجينا احنا لاقينا بتاع الياهو غالي كتير، إيش
+
+366
+00:27:04,990 --> 00:27:08,550
+هتسوي انت؟ مش حاجة .. مش حاجة .. مو لازم تشتري زي
+
+367
+00:27:08,550 --> 00:27:14,900
+.. هتعمل إيه بقى؟you try to go to the stock that's
+
+368
+00:27:14,900 --> 00:27:20,300
+similar to yahoo هتروحي على شغلة مشابهة يعني مثلا
+
+369
+00:27:20,300 --> 00:27:25,800
+انت روحتي على ساجلة بتاعة نوودسية and خلينا نحكي
+
+370
+00:27:25,800 --> 00:27:30,120
+you ask your dad to have some sweets and you went
+
+371
+00:27:30,120 --> 00:27:34,180
+there and the shop is closed your dad cannot say
+
+372
+00:27:34,180 --> 00:27:37,260
+to you sorry it's closed he will go to another
+
+373
+00:27:37,260 --> 00:27:41,490
+shopor similar shop فهلا لو احنا هذا ال .. هلا ال
+
+374
+00:27:41,490 --> 00:27:44,910
+price is going up فهيروحوا على شغلة is mimic or
+
+375
+00:27:44,910 --> 00:27:48,770
+copy يهو which is google هلا بروح على ال google
+
+376
+00:27:48,770 --> 00:27:51,870
+بتاع ال google is smart he knows this guy is
+
+377
+00:27:51,870 --> 00:27:55,010
+making the price up so he try to make it up but
+
+378
+00:27:55,010 --> 00:27:58,530
+less than the .. less than the .. the .. the يهو
+
+379
+00:27:58,530 --> 00:28:04,640
+فبصير ال .. the prices is going up مع بعضbecause
+
+380
+00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:07,040
+people tried لما هذا ال shop مسكرا هيروح تسانى و
+
+381
+00:28:07,040 --> 00:28:10,120
+بتسالى حتون فعشان هيك هذا بيسمون ال ايه ايش ال co
+
+382
+00:28:10,120 --> 00:28:20,840
+-movement ايش اسمه افهموها هذه بقى co
+
+383
+00:28:20,840 --> 00:28:26,000
+-movement يعني مثلا افهمكوا ال co-movement يعني
+
+384
+00:28:26,000 --> 00:28:30,500
+اللي بيمشوا مع بعض يعني هلا مثلا لينا شوية مشغولة
+
+385
+00:28:30,500 --> 00:28:34,690
+بال .. بال texting people يعنىيعني هلأ مثلا لينا و
+
+386
+00:28:34,690 --> 00:28:39,990
+نهلا they are friends فهلأ إذا نهلا غابت ممكن لينا
+
+387
+00:28:39,990 --> 00:28:46,030
+تغيب و العكس صحيح و العكس إيش؟ و العكس صحيح هذا
+
+388
+00:28:46,030 --> 00:28:50,890
+إيش بيسموه؟ بيسموه co-movement فهلأ بالأسواق في ال
+
+389
+00:28:50,890 --> 00:28:53,330
+.. في ال financial market إذا كان فيه سهم is a
+
+390
+00:28:53,330 --> 00:28:58,050
+leader stock فهذا إذا طلع هيطلع مع ال other stocks
+
+391
+00:28:58,050 --> 00:29:03,580
+ليش؟ why؟ يعني إذا كان هذا leader stockمثلا IBM
+
+392
+00:29:03,580 --> 00:29:10,120
+طبعا ال IBM خلاني نحكي انه industrial company
+
+393
+00:29:10,120 --> 00:29:14,780
+خلاني نيجي مثلا بلاش IBM نحكي مثلا شركة ال IT
+
+394
+00:29:14,780 --> 00:29:23,000
+Cisco شركة hardware هلأ هذه اذا طلعت في other
+
+395
+00:29:23,000 --> 00:29:26,340
+companies هتروح ايش هتسوي الشركة هذه هتاخدهم معاها
+
+396
+00:29:26,930 --> 00:29:30,190
+هتطلعوا معاها ليش؟ لإنه some investors if they
+
+397
+00:29:30,190 --> 00:29:34,350
+fail to buy this they try to buy this إذا هم مش
+
+398
+00:29:34,350 --> 00:29:38,040
+قادرين يشتريوا هذه هيروحوا يشتريوا اللي زيهافهتروح
+
+399
+00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:42,180
+الأسعار تمشي مع بعض فهي زي فاطمة asking all the
+
+400
+00:29:42,180 --> 00:29:46,000
+prices going up why because the price moving
+
+401
+00:29:46,000 --> 00:29:49,460
+together بيمشوا مع بعض لأن ال investors they have
+
+402
+00:29:49,460 --> 00:29:53,860
+to buy or they have to sell and vice versa كمان
+
+403
+00:29:53,860 --> 00:29:58,920
+إذا كنت بدك تبيعي فبتضطر كمان أن كل الأسواق تنزل و
+
+404
+00:29:58,920 --> 00:30:02,480
+هذا كمان الجميل فيه أن الأسواق العالمية كمان يعني
+
+405
+00:30:02,480 --> 00:30:06,300
+هلأ مثلا بتشوف إذا New York Stock Exchangeارتفع
+
+406
+00:30:06,300 --> 00:30:10,840
+هتلاقي لندن ارتفعتو Frankfurt هترتفع .. هترتفع
+
+407
+00:30:10,840 --> 00:30:15,000
+okay و ممكن كمان اكتر من هيك اذا مثلا باريستان
+
+408
+00:30:15,000 --> 00:30:17,640
+السوق exchange ارتفع القاهرة ارتفعت ممكن السوق
+
+409
+00:30:17,640 --> 00:30:20,280
+الفلسطيني يرتفع السوق عالمان يرتفع و هكذا هاي
+
+410
+00:30:20,280 --> 00:30:24,220
+بيسموه is a co-movement between the markets طبعا
+
+411
+00:30:24,220 --> 00:30:28,500
+مش هذا الإجابة ال .. ال .. ال final answer this is
+
+412
+00:30:28,500 --> 00:30:30,920
+not the final answer the final answer في عندنا
+
+413
+00:30:30,920 --> 00:30:33,820
+كمان إجابات أخرى انه psychology of the investors
+
+414
+00:30:33,820 --> 00:30:36,620
+هذا هتاخدوها بال behavior of the financeيعني ايش
+
+415
+00:30:36,620 --> 00:30:40,160
+what it means psychology يعني هلأ مثلا انتوا
+
+416
+00:30:40,160 --> 00:30:44,440
+اشتريتوا ساهم في في نيورك و بدأت الأسعار تنخفض
+
+417
+00:30:44,440 --> 00:30:48,720
+فالشخص اللي اللي موجود في لندن قاعد بيشوف نيورك
+
+418
+00:30:48,720 --> 00:30:54,480
+بتنزل فهو هيبيع لإنه بخاف انه هو بتعرف لندن هتنزل
+
+419
+00:30:54,480 --> 00:30:57,100
+اللي في فرانكولتر في في دبي شايفين الأوضاع قاعدة
+
+420
+00:30:57,100 --> 00:31:00,020
+بتنزل غد فهيضطروا كمان هم يبيعوا فهي لإنه because
+
+421
+00:31:00,020 --> 00:31:02,480
+psychology نوع من ال .. عارف ايه يعني ال
+
+422
+00:31:02,480 --> 00:31:07,620
+psychology نفسية المستخدمينOkay دي .. هدا هتاخدوها
+
+423
+00:31:07,620 --> 00:31:12,060
+بال financial behavior طبعا هذا ال أنثى اللي
+
+424
+00:31:12,060 --> 00:31:14,780
+حكيناها في New York Stock Exchange بيطبقها New
+
+425
+00:31:14,780 --> 00:31:16,720
+York Stock Exchange اللي هو ال specialist market
+
+426
+00:31:16,720 --> 00:31:22,400
+okay الأنظمة الإلكترونية اللي بتم تطبيقها كيف
+
+427
+00:31:22,400 --> 00:31:25,760
+بتعاملوا ال specialist كيف بيحكوا مع بعض عبارة عن
+
+428
+00:31:25,760 --> 00:31:29,760
+أنظمة إلكترونية مثلا زي sober dot ال .. ال orders
+
+429
+00:31:29,760 --> 00:31:35,140
+كلها بتتنفذ إلكترونيا direct plusكل المعاملات تم
+
+430
+00:31:35,140 --> 00:31:37,500
+تطبيقها إلكترونية، there is no intervention by the
+
+431
+00:31:37,500 --> 00:31:43,900
+human being، مافيش تدخل للبشر، يعني هلأ بدك تشتري،
+
+432
+00:31:43,900 --> 00:31:47,990
+مباشرة بتشتري، بخسر من حسابك بالبنكما تروحش تجيب
+
+433
+00:31:47,990 --> 00:31:51,890
+شكات لحاله هم النظام الإلكتروني بياخد مصاري منك و
+
+434
+00:31:51,890 --> 00:31:54,410
+بيحطهم في حساب الوسيط و بعدين بياخد من حساب الوسيط
+
+435
+00:31:54,410 --> 00:31:58,010
+و بيحطهم بحساب البايع كله is electronic بيجيكي
+
+436
+00:31:58,010 --> 00:32:00,710
+take message بيقولك انه احنا we deducted this
+
+437
+00:32:00,710 --> 00:32:03,230
+amount from your bank account يعني احنا أخدنا هذا
+
+438
+00:32:03,230 --> 00:32:06,330
+الفلوس من حسابك في البنك مافيش a human
+
+439
+00:32:06,330 --> 00:32:09,900
+intervention just people are observingال people
+
+440
+00:32:09,900 --> 00:32:13,300
+ايش؟ just بلاحظوا and see and they intervene
+
+441
+00:32:13,300 --> 00:32:17,060
+sometimes in the .. in the block trades block
+
+442
+00:32:17,060 --> 00:32:19,480
+trade يعني الصفقات الكبيرة people intervene in
+
+443
+00:32:19,480 --> 00:32:25,120
+these trades الأشخاص بتدخلوا فيها okay حكينا عن ال
+
+444
+00:32:25,120 --> 00:32:29,380
+ECN و حكينا ال major ECN ال nasdaq market flash
+
+445
+00:32:29,380 --> 00:32:33,140
+trading هو نوع من برمجيات الحواسيب اللي بتستخدم
+
+446
+00:32:33,140 --> 00:32:37,480
+flash trading okay نقف عند ال bond trading
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/iRmUeYH3Y2Q_raw.json b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/iRmUeYH3Y2Q_raw.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..121df98dfb598fbc31945da5d8956be57dde55a1
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/iRmUeYH3Y2Q_raw.json
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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2560.98, "word": " to", "probability": 0.96728515625}, {"start": 2560.98, "end": 2561.42, "word": " understand", "probability": 0.83154296875}, {"start": 2561.42, "end": 2561.72, "word": " it", "probability": 0.97119140625}, {"start": 2561.72, "end": 2562.38, "word": " you", "probability": 0.86279296875}, {"start": 2562.38, "end": 2562.58, "word": " don't", "probability": 0.961669921875}, {"start": 2562.58, "end": 2562.9, "word": " need", "probability": 0.947265625}, {"start": 2562.9, "end": 2563.06, "word": " to", "probability": 0.97802734375}, {"start": 2563.06, "end": 2563.24, "word": " read", "probability": 0.96630859375}, {"start": 2563.24, "end": 2563.54, "word": " things", "probability": 0.87841796875}, {"start": 2563.54, "end": 2563.74, "word": " that", "probability": 0.91845703125}, {"start": 2563.74, "end": 2563.9, "word": " you", "probability": 0.97021484375}, {"start": 2563.9, "end": 2564.02, "word": " don't", "probability": 0.97607421875}, {"start": 2564.02, "end": 2564.52, "word": " understand", "probability": 0.84326171875}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 98, "seek": 258648, "start": 2565.42, "end": 2586.48, "text": "تمام؟ فشوفنا ال footnotes اللى هو عندنا ال sigma اللى انكتبت ال sigma وعرفناها ال sigma اللى هى .. خلّيني أحكي control F بدنا sigma شوفوا هى sigma شايفينها sigma هن؟", "tokens": [2655, 15042, 2304, 22807, 6156, 8592, 38688, 8315, 2423, 2671, 2247, 279, 13672, 7578, 31439, 43242, 8315, 2423, 12771, 13672, 7578, 16472, 4117, 2655, 3555, 2655, 2423, 12771, 4032, 3615, 28480, 8315, 11296, 2423, 12771, 13672, 7578, 8032, 7578, 4386, 16490, 1211, 11703, 9957, 1829, 5551, 5016, 4117, 1829, 1969, 479, 47525, 8315, 12771, 13412, 38688, 14407, 8032, 7578, 12771, 13412, 995, 33911, 9957, 11296, 12771, 8032, 1863, 22807], "avg_logprob": -0.27276784351893835, "compression_ratio": 1.5886075949367089, "no_speech_prob": 5.960464477539063e-08, "words": [{"start": 2565.42, "end": 2566.22, "word": "تمام؟", "probability": 0.5272216796875}, {"start": 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2570.2, "end": 2572.34, "word": " وعرفناها", "probability": 0.8890625}, {"start": 2572.34, "end": 2572.44, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.9189453125}, {"start": 2572.44, "end": 2573.3, "word": " sigma", "probability": 0.98876953125}, {"start": 2573.3, "end": 2574.76, "word": " اللى", "probability": 0.97216796875}, {"start": 2574.76, "end": 2575.62, "word": " هى", "probability": 0.87939453125}, {"start": 2575.62, "end": 2575.68, "word": " ..", "probability": 0.4208984375}, {"start": 2575.68, "end": 2576.0, "word": " خلّيني", "probability": 0.715576171875}, {"start": 2576.0, "end": 2576.5, "word": " أحكي", "probability": 0.8258056640625}, {"start": 2576.5, "end": 2577.38, "word": " control", "probability": 0.26318359375}, {"start": 2577.38, "end": 2577.84, "word": " F", "probability": 0.6611328125}, {"start": 2577.84, "end": 2578.58, "word": " بدنا", "probability": 0.802734375}, {"start": 2578.58, "end": 2578.94, "word": " sigma", "probability": 0.89453125}, {"start": 2578.94, "end": 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" احنا", "probability": 0.9347330729166666}, {"start": 2593.18, "end": 2593.56, "word": " حكيتها", "probability": 0.69085693359375}, {"start": 2593.56, "end": 2593.72, "word": " three", "probability": 0.92431640625}, {"start": 2593.72, "end": 2594.1, "word": " sigmas", "probability": 0.780517578125}, {"start": 2594.1, "end": 2595.42, "word": " شو", "probability": 0.667236328125}, {"start": 2595.42, "end": 2595.54, "word": " هم", "probability": 0.89404296875}, {"start": 2595.54, "end": 2595.68, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.66015625}, {"start": 2595.68, "end": 2595.82, "word": " three", "probability": 0.37646484375}, {"start": 2595.82, "end": 2596.26, "word": " sigmas", "probability": 0.8408203125}, {"start": 2596.26, "end": 2596.7, "word": " هدول؟", "probability": 0.8221435546875}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 100, "seek": 262749, "start": 2598.43, "end": 2627.49, "text": "we don't know يعني even me I don't know so explain this فبنحط في الفوتناو ستهت okay sigma is a standard deviation about ninety nine point seven percent of a normal distribution m zero one is confined to three sigmas خلاص وضحكت عرفت what it means sigma الطريقة التانية ان احنا بتعملي sigma طريقة ثانية sigma", "tokens": [826, 500, 380, 458, 37495, 22653, 754, 385, 286, 500, 380, 458, 370, 2903, 341, 6156, 3555, 1863, 5016, 9566, 8978, 27188, 35473, 8315, 2407, 8608, 2655, 3224, 2655, 1392, 12771, 307, 257, 3832, 25163, 466, 25063, 4949, 935, 3407, 3043, 295, 257, 2710, 7316, 275, 4018, 472, 307, 31745, 281, 1045, 4556, 3799, 16490, 1211, 33546, 4032, 11242, 5016, 4117, 2655, 6225, 28480, 2655, 437, 309, 1355, 12771, 41950, 16572, 28671, 16712, 7649, 10632, 16472, 1975, 5016, 8315, 39894, 25957, 20292, 12771, 23032, 16572, 28671, 38637, 7649, 10632, 12771], "avg_logprob": -0.3224587931737795, "compression_ratio": 1.4881889763779528, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 2598.43, "end": 2598.65, "word": "we", "probability": 0.140625}, {"start": 2598.65, "end": 2598.81, "word": " don't", 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"probability": 0.97265625}, {"start": 2615.01, "end": 2615.27, "word": " three", "probability": 0.9365234375}, {"start": 2615.27, "end": 2615.73, "word": " sigmas", "probability": 0.678955078125}, {"start": 2615.73, "end": 2616.43, "word": " خلاص", "probability": 0.8859049479166666}, {"start": 2616.43, "end": 2618.41, "word": " وضحكت", "probability": 0.7966796875}, {"start": 2618.41, "end": 2618.99, "word": " عرفت", "probability": 0.5697021484375}, {"start": 2618.99, "end": 2619.13, "word": " what", "probability": 0.55322265625}, {"start": 2619.13, "end": 2619.27, "word": " it", "probability": 0.5654296875}, {"start": 2619.27, "end": 2619.39, "word": " means", "probability": 0.85888671875}, {"start": 2619.39, "end": 2619.79, "word": " sigma", "probability": 0.80419921875}, {"start": 2619.79, "end": 2622.09, "word": " الطريقة", "probability": 0.87890625}, {"start": 2622.09, "end": 2622.49, "word": " التانية", "probability": 0.9708658854166666}, {"start": 2622.49, "end": 2623.83, "word": " ان", "probability": 0.24267578125}, {"start": 2623.83, "end": 2624.19, "word": " احنا", "probability": 0.8143717447916666}, {"start": 2624.19, "end": 2625.25, "word": " بتعملي", "probability": 0.81884765625}, {"start": 2625.25, "end": 2625.71, "word": " sigma", "probability": 0.7109375}, {"start": 2625.71, "end": 2626.65, "word": " طريقة", "probability": 0.9410807291666666}, {"start": 2626.65, "end": 2627.01, "word": " ثانية", "probability": 0.9853515625}, {"start": 2627.01, "end": 2627.49, "word": " sigma", "probability": 0.90576171875}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 101, "seek": 265674, "start": 2629.26, "end": 2656.74, "text": "و بتعمل between quotation و بتروحي بتحطيها بانجوسان that's it ممكن نحط ال abbreviations و نحط ال sigma هذه كلها فهمش الحال طب إذا في كان أكتر من تعريف ل sigma ممكن نحط sigma و نقول other people explain sigma like this", "tokens": [2407, 39894, 25957, 1211, 1296, 47312, 4032, 39894, 32887, 5016, 1829, 39894, 5016, 9566, 1829, 11296, 4724, 7649, 7435, 41779, 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يعني عيدوا صياغة ال introduction يعني ممكن انتوا اذا احنا بدأنا من a to z يعني مثلا من ال introduction اقبلوا من z to a فهمتوا؟ بالعكس؟ اه اقبلوا بالعكس يعني نفسها يعني تحكوش اشي بال conclusion انتوا ماحكتوش عنه نهائي احكوا شغلات مكتوبة عنها", "tokens": [25957, 1211, 12610, 11296, 36992, 1703, 651, 37495, 22653, 6225, 25708, 14407, 20328, 1829, 5718, 118, 3660, 2423, 9339, 37495, 22653, 3714, 43020, 16472, 2655, 14407, 1975, 15730, 1975, 5016, 8315, 47525, 10721, 8315, 9154, 257, 281, 710, 37495, 22653, 50113, 15040, 9154, 2423, 9339, 1975, 4587, 36150, 14407, 9154, 710, 281, 257, 6156, 16095, 2655, 14407, 22807, 20666, 3615, 4117, 3794, 22807, 1975, 3224, 1975, 4587, 36150, 14407, 20666, 3615, 4117, 3794, 37495, 22653, 8717, 36178, 11296, 37495, 22653, 6055, 5016, 4117, 2407, 8592, 1975, 8592, 1829, 20666, 10063, 16472, 2655, 14407, 19446, 5016, 4117, 2655, 2407, 8592, 18871, 3224, 8717, 3224, 16373, 1829, 1975, 5016, 4117, 14407, 13412, 17082, 1211, 9307, 3714, 4117, 2655, 37746, 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\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/kDY683IEqWo.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/kDY683IEqWo.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..a2235629c9dc070818f18e5b8e291e8bc66553b9
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/kDY683IEqWo.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1627 @@
+1
+00:00:21,230 --> 00:00:25,690
+بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم المرة 
+
+2
+00:00:25,690 --> 00:00:28,430
+الماضية كنا نحكي بالـ difference the main difference
+
+3
+00:00:28,430 --> 00:00:33,510
+between real rate of return and nominal rate اللي 
+
+4
+00:00:33,510 --> 00:00:36,690
+هو السعر الفائدة الحقيقي و السعر الفائدة الاسمي
+
+5
+00:00:36,690 --> 00:00:43,450
+تمام؟ و اليوم بدنا نحكي بتفاصيل أكثر عن العوامل 
+
+6
+00:00:43,450 --> 00:00:46,450
+التي تؤثر the factors influence on the nominal rate of
+
+7
+00:00:46,450 --> 00:00:50,280
+return and real rate of return بنحكي عن عوامل تتأثر 
+
+8
+00:00:50,280 --> 00:00:52,500
+على الأسعار الفائدة الحقيقية و الأسعار الفائدة 
+
+9
+00:00:52,500 --> 00:00:55,820
+الاسمية أو ليش في فرق بين أسعار الفائدة الحقيقية و
+
+10
+00:00:55,820 --> 00:00:59,360
+الأسعار الفائدة الاسمية بس نذكركم أننا المرة
+
+11
+00:00:59,360 --> 00:01:05,220
+الماضية حكينا أن
+
+12
+00:01:05,220 --> 00:01:10,820
+الـ real rate of return بتتأثر في الـ inflation صح 
+
+13
+00:01:10,820 --> 00:01:14,100
+هذا المرة الماضية حكينا و بتتأثر في other factors
+
+14
+00:01:14,100 --> 00:01:19,330
+كمان في factors أخرى الـ liquidity و الـ احنا
+
+15
+00:01:19,330 --> 00:01:25,160
+اليوم هناخد تفاصيل أكثر في .. في العوامل اللي بتأثر
+
+16
+00:01:25,160 --> 00:01:28,880
+لأننا في هذا المستوى مش هنقدر نـ study all of
+
+17
+00:01:28,880 --> 00:01:31,380
+factors influence on the interest rate of Britain
+
+18
+00:01:31,380 --> 00:01:35,580
+مش هنقدر نغطي كل الـ factors اللي بتأثر على الـ
+
+19
+00:01:35,580 --> 00:01:40,140
+interest rate of Britain هن .. هنشوف مجموعة some
+
+20
+00:01:40,140 --> 00:01:44,900
+of factors has direct impact on the real rate of
+
+21
+00:01:44,900 --> 00:01:47,460
+Britain one of these factors as I mentioned before
+
+22
+00:01:47,460 --> 00:01:49,920
+واحدة من الـ factors اللي زي ما انا حكيت المرة
+
+23
+00:01:49,920 --> 00:01:53,870
+الماضية is the inflation rate other factors is the
+
+24
+00:01:53,870 --> 00:01:59,530
+taxation الضريبة is important other factors the
+
+25
+00:01:59,530 --> 00:02:05,770
+period as I say the maturity okay I explained this
+
+26
+00:02:05,770 --> 00:02:09,810
+before okay or this is called the period or the
+
+27
+00:02:09,810 --> 00:02:13,790
+holding period or the maturity we will focus on
+
+28
+00:02:13,790 --> 00:02:16,790
+these three factors and how these three factors
+
+29
+00:02:16,790 --> 00:02:19,590
+influence on the real
+
+30
+00:02:25,010 --> 00:02:34,970
+يعني هذا التركيز سيكون اليوم okay just
+
+31
+00:02:34,970 --> 00:02:38,470
+to remind you with the explanation of nominal rate
+
+32
+00:02:40,550 --> 00:02:43,470
+to differentiate between the real rate of return
+
+33
+00:02:43,470 --> 00:02:47,510
+and nominal rate just keep in your mind this
+
+34
+00:02:47,510 --> 00:02:53,230
+example when you pour some coke on this glass لما
+
+35
+00:02:53,230 --> 00:02:56,710
+نحن نحط شوية Coca Cola في الـ glass فبصير فيها
+
+36
+00:02:56,710 --> 00:03:01,210
+ارتفاع عن حجمها الطبيعي but the reality of the
+
+37
+00:03:01,210 --> 00:03:04,590
+coke is like this لكن الوضع الحقيقي للـ Coca Cola
+
+38
+00:03:04,590 --> 00:03:10,790
+هي بالجزء هذا بس هذا جزء ضبابي مش حقيقي هذا الجزء
+
+39
+00:03:10,790 --> 00:03:16,050
+بنسميه nominal كله nominal okay وهذا البعض هو is
+
+40
+00:03:16,050 --> 00:03:21,490
+the real هذا هو الـ real وهذا هو الـ nominal okay
+
+41
+00:03:21,490 --> 00:03:25,750
+just to keep your mind that the real or the
+
+42
+00:03:25,750 --> 00:03:29,090
+effective rate of return is less than the nominal
+
+43
+00:03:29,090 --> 00:03:33,590
+rate of return يعني دائما بيكون أقل من الـ real
+
+44
+00:03:33,590 --> 00:03:37,990
+rate of return nominal the definition of nominal
+
+45
+00:03:39,120 --> 00:03:45,400
+interest rate a growth rate of your money و هذا
+
+46
+00:03:45,400 --> 00:03:50,460
+تعريف a growth rate of your money يعني نمو في
+
+47
+00:03:50,460 --> 00:03:56,220
+الكتلة النقدية يعني مثلا واحد بيكون مع 100 شيكل 
+
+48
+00:03:56,220 --> 00:04:04,960
+بيصيروا مثلا 200 شيكل is important هل هذا مهم يعني
+
+49
+00:04:04,960 --> 00:04:09,620
+is a difference between 200 شيكل and 100 شيكل yes but
+
+50
+00:04:09,620 --> 00:04:11,680
+from the economic point of view sometimes there is
+
+51
+00:04:11,680 --> 00:04:15,660
+no difference from economic point of view يعني من
+
+52
+00:04:15,660 --> 00:04:18,640
+وجهة نظر اقتصادية مرات لا خليني انا اعطيكم مثال
+
+53
+00:04:18,640 --> 00:04:25,040
+خليني اعطيكم مثال كان زمان و أنتم صغار أبوكم 
+
+54
+00:04:25,040 --> 00:04:29,100
+يعطيكم أجرة عارفين الأجرة؟ مصروف، سفرة، لدياش
+
+55
+00:04:29,100 --> 00:04:32,420
+كان مصروفكم زمان؟ زمان قبل .. أنتم يعني متوسط
+
+56
+00:04:32,420 --> 00:04:33,800
+أعماركم سبع عشرة و ثمان عشرة
+
+57
+00:04:37,780 --> 00:04:42,400
+أه لما كنا بالروضة، قد إيش؟ نص شيكل شو كنت تشتري
+
+58
+00:04:42,400 --> 00:04:47,560
+بالنص شيكل؟ يعني
+
+59
+00:04:47,560 --> 00:04:53,940
+أكم شغلة، five items خلّيني أقول five items طيب،
+
+60
+00:04:53,940 --> 00:04:58,500
+انتبهوا، انتبهوا يعني هذا .. هذا good example to
+
+61
+00:04:58,500 --> 00:05:02,620
+understand the nominal rates هي growth of the ..
+
+62
+00:05:02,620 --> 00:05:07,260
+of the money أه بس خلينا .. اه اللي هو عندنا growth
+
+63
+00:05:07,260 --> 00:05:13,300
+rate of your money هو زيادة أو نمو في .. في الكتلة
+
+64
+00:05:13,300 --> 00:05:18,020
+النقدية طيب، زي هالا النص شيكل هذه لو نحن بدنا
+
+65
+00:05:18,020 --> 00:05:21,160
+نرجع ل .. اليوم عشان تاخد قيمة النص شيكل كم
+
+66
+00:05:21,160 --> 00:05:25,760
+هتكون؟ خمس شيكل نفترض صح؟ ممكن تاخد خمس شيكل تشتري
+
+67
+00:05:25,760 --> 00:05:32,400
+نفس الـ five items مظبوط؟ five شيكل اذا .. اذا ..
+
+68
+00:05:32,400 --> 00:05:36,680
+اذا it is not right that the two hundred is greater
+
+69
+00:05:36,680 --> 00:05:41,100
+than one hundred from economic point of view من
+
+70
+00:05:41,100 --> 00:05:44,080
+وجهة نظر نقدية ممكن the two hundred the value of
+
+71
+00:05:44,080 --> 00:05:46,500
+two hundred is less than the value of one hundred
+
+72
+00:05:46,500 --> 00:05:54,080
+طب النص شيكل كانت بالأول يمكن نص شيكل is giving
+
+73
+00:05:54,080 --> 00:05:59,930
+you five items طب الـ five شيكل اليوم ممكن تجيب
+
+74
+00:05:59,930 --> 00:06:04,170
+similar five items, so in this case half شيكل is
+
+75
+00:06:04,170 --> 00:06:07,290
+equal five شيكل، النص شيكل بتاع زمان بتساوي الخمسة
+
+76
+00:06:07,290 --> 00:06:09,550
+شيكل بتاعت اليوم، مثال ثاني
+
+77
+00:06:14,540 --> 00:06:17,780
+كان في واحد طبعا نحن بنحكي على ال .. كان كنت انا 
+
+78
+00:06:17,780 --> 00:06:21,980
+أشتغل في Bank of Palestine وكنت ال .. الـ manager
+
+79
+00:06:21,980 --> 00:06:24,300
+تبع الـ treasury departments اللي هو المدير الخزينة
+
+80
+00:06:24,300 --> 00:06:28,620
+فجأتنا case عشان تفهموا إيش ال .. كيف الـ growth in
+
+81
+00:06:28,620 --> 00:06:31,260
+the .. on the money value جأتنا case من المحكمة
+
+82
+00:06:31,260 --> 00:06:37,460
+بيقول إنه بدنا نعرف قد إيش قيمة الثلاث ليرات أردنية
+
+83
+00:06:37,460 --> 00:06:43,740
+في ذاك الوقت ثلاث ليرات أردنية في سنة خمسة و ستين طبعا
+
+84
+00:06:43,740 --> 00:06:46,580
+كان في رجل و امرأة طبعا سبب الـ case تجينا الحالة
+
+85
+00:06:46,580 --> 00:06:50,940
+يعني رجل و امرأة ما اتجوزوا مع بعض فبدأ إنه بيصير
+
+86
+00:06:50,940 --> 00:06:55,640
+مشاكل بناتهم فبدأوا يروحوا يخلصوا يعني رجعوا لها 
+
+87
+00:06:55,640 --> 00:06:59,620
+الشو بيسموه العفش البيت و المتأخر المؤخر طبعا
+
+88
+00:06:59,620 --> 00:07:03,580
+المؤخر تبعها ثلاث دينار كم؟ ثلاث دينار أردنية في
+
+89
+00:07:03,580 --> 00:07:08,340
+سنة الـ 65 فالمدام في ذاك الوقت كانت يعني ذكية
+
+90
+00:07:08,340 --> 00:07:10,840
+كثير فراحت وجهزت لها المحكمة فالرجل تبعها جالها
+
+91
+00:07:10,840 --> 00:07:15,870
+ثلاث دينار يبقى تفعل كيهم فالقاضي .. اه القاضي he
+
+92
+00:07:15,870 --> 00:07:19,830
+.. he was smart كان كثير ذكي وكان بنوفق الطرفين
+
+93
+00:07:19,830 --> 00:07:25,450
+فبعت لل .. للـ bank قالهم I want to know how much
+
+94
+00:07:25,450 --> 00:07:29,490
+the three dinar in that time ذاك الوقت كده بيجيبوا
+
+95
+00:07:29,490 --> 00:07:33,830
+تتفاجأوا كده كانوا يجيبوا ثلاث دينار؟ في سنة و خمس
+
+96
+00:07:33,830 --> 00:07:37,710
+و ستين في سنة و خمس و ستين كانوا يجيبوا دلمه في حي
+
+97
+00:07:37,710 --> 00:07:43,280
+زيتون فإحنا على طول اتصلنا كومييته في Bank of Israel
+
+98
+00:07:43,280 --> 00:07:47,100
+لأنهم اللي عندهم ال .. او big discount bank
+
+99
+00:07:47,100 --> 00:07:50,920
+وعرفنا هالمعلومة هذه قيمتهم طبعا حولناها في
+
+100
+00:07:50,920 --> 00:07:55,920
+هداك الوقت شيكل تلقوا بهذا المبلغ فبعثنا للمحكمة
+
+101
+00:07:55,920 --> 00:08:00,120
+قلنا لهم هدول الثلاث دينار بتاعون زمان بيساوي
+
+102
+00:08:00,120 --> 00:08:04,560
+اليوم دولهم في حي الزيتون فلمّا بعثنا للمحكمة قال
+
+103
+00:08:04,560 --> 00:08:07,740
+okay we will let the husband know هنحكي مع الزوج
+
+104
+00:08:07,740 --> 00:08:10,820
+ونشوف طبعا اه he was very curious انا كنت كثير
+
+105
+00:08:10,820 --> 00:08:13,020
+فضولي to .. to .. to see what is the decision of
+
+106
+00:08:13,020 --> 00:08:16,200
+the court طبعا .. طبعا .. طبعا .. طبعا .. طبعا ..
+
+107
+00:08:16,200 --> 00:08:18,000
+طبعا .. طبعا .. طبعا .. طبعا .. طبعا .. طبعا ..
+
+108
+00:08:18,000 --> 00:08:22,580
+طبعا .. طبعا .. طبعا .. طبعا .. طبعا .. طبعا ..
+
+109
+00:08:22,580 --> 00:08:28,260
+طبعا .. طبعا
+
+110
+00:08:28,260 --> 00:08:32,470
+.. بيقولوا بدك تدفع ثلاثين ألف دينار أردنية، في
+
+111
+00:08:32,470 --> 00:08:34,790
+ذاك اليوم أنت كنت دافع .. كانت تساوي لإننا، تساوي
+
+112
+00:08:34,790 --> 00:08:37,750
+كمان لزوجنا؟ طبعا كانت تساوي في ذاك الوقت، ومزارة
+
+113
+00:08:37,750 --> 00:08:42,090
+بتساوي طبعا، فالثلاث دينار في سنة الخمس و ستين
+
+114
+00:08:42,090 --> 00:08:45,730
+بتساوي ثلاثين ألف اليوم، في ذاك الوقت لما أنا
+
+115
+00:08:45,730 --> 00:08:49,410
+عملت لهم القرار، فمباشرة القاضي بعث لهذا، قال له
+
+116
+00:08:49,410 --> 00:08:51,590
+okay if you want to get divorced you have to pay
+
+117
+00:08:51,590 --> 00:08:55,910
+thirty thousand dollar، thirty thousand dinar I
+
+118
+00:08:55,910 --> 00:08:58,270
+said no no no it's fine I'm okay I'm happy with
+
+119
+00:08:58,270 --> 00:09:03,390
+this فهو إيش تراجع عن قراره لأنه في دافع ثلاثين
+
+120
+00:09:03,390 --> 00:09:08,210
+ألف دينار بس
+
+121
+00:09:08,210 --> 00:09:15,470
+هم بالهدف القاضي هدفه هو التوفيق مش هدفه .. يريد
+
+122
+00:09:15,470 --> 00:09:19,190
+اصلاح يوفق الله بينهما يريد اصلاح .. من يريد
+
+123
+00:09:19,190 --> 00:09:22,030
+اصلاح؟ مش الرجل و المرأة الفريق اللي بيروح يصلح 
+
+124
+00:09:22,030 --> 00:09:28,260
+فهذا مثال لو نحن جيبنا ثلاث دنانير الـ nominal rate
+
+125
+00:09:28,260 --> 00:09:30,680
+nominal interest is the growth of your money هو 
+
+126
+00:09:30,680 --> 00:09:34,920
+نمو في ال money okay يعني بالعربي بتكون بهذا الشكل
+
+127
+00:09:34,920 --> 00:09:40,400
+بتصير بهذا الشكل لكن بال national بنخاف كتير لأنه
+
+128
+00:09:40,400 --> 00:09:46,280
+it doesn't mean this is greater than this ما بيعنيش
+
+129
+00:09:46,280 --> 00:09:52,480
+هذا يعني معاناتنا معانا مثلا هذه الكتلة النقدية
+
+130
+00:09:52,480 --> 00:09:58,780
+أنه أكبر من هذه النقدية كرقم أكبر as a value كقيمة
+
+131
+00:09:58,780 --> 00:10:03,020
+we will not know هذا اللي هنعمل so the nominal
+
+132
+00:10:03,020 --> 00:10:07,100
+interest rate is misleading the nominal rate of
+
+133
+00:10:07,100 --> 00:10:12,760
+return is misleading يعني بيعطيش مؤشر حقيقي لأن
+
+134
+00:10:12,760 --> 00:10:16,520
+anyone when I give you three dollar and thirty
+
+135
+00:10:16,520 --> 00:10:19,950
+thousand dollars you definitely say thirty thousand
+
+136
+00:10:19,950 --> 00:10:22,510
+dollar is greater than the three dollar this is fine
+
+137
+00:10:22,510 --> 00:10:26,690
+okay but what what is the value of the three
+
+138
+00:10:26,690 --> 00:10:29,690
+dollar in that time and what is the value of the
+
+139
+00:10:29,690 --> 00:10:32,950
+thirty thousand dollar today قداش قيمة التلات
+
+140
+00:10:32,950 --> 00:10:35,430
+دولارات في ذاك الوقت في ذاك الوقت كنا نشتري
+
+141
+00:10:35,430 --> 00:10:42,230
+بهم في حي الزيتون طبعا لو جيبنا تلاتة دينار اليوم
+
+142
+00:10:42,230 --> 00:10:46,700
+بيجيبوا شيء بيجيبوا شيء Okay so this is the idea
+
+143
+00:10:46,700 --> 00:10:51,080
+this is why it is important to consider the real
+
+144
+00:10:51,080 --> 00:11:00,320
+rate of return يعني سعر الفائض الحقيقي the
+
+145
+00:11:00,320 --> 00:11:03,560
+real interest rate the growth rate of your
+
+146
+00:11:03,560 --> 00:11:07,860
+purchasing power this is the real definition the
+
+147
+00:11:07,860 --> 00:11:10,740
+growth rate of your purchasing power purchasing
+
+148
+00:11:10,740 --> 00:11:15,390
+power هي قوة شرائية يعني عشان أنا أقول الثلاث
+
+149
+00:11:15,390 --> 00:11:20,250
+دينار تعون مهر المدام قبل ثلاثين سنة أو أربعين
+
+150
+00:11:20,250 --> 00:11:24,770
+سنة في ذاك الوقت كانوا يجيبوا one denim في حي
+
+151
+00:11:24,770 --> 00:11:30,390
+الزيتون في ذاك الوقت طبعا هذا .. هذا ال
+
+152
+00:11:30,390 --> 00:11:33,430
+purchasing power طب لو اجينا احنا التلاتة دينار
+
+153
+00:11:33,430 --> 00:11:37,490
+اليوم قداش بيجيبوا؟ بيجيبوا خمسة عشر شكل okay
+
+154
+00:11:37,490 --> 00:11:42,050
+بيجيبوا إيش هي؟ بيجيبوا نص متر؟ سانتي بيجيبوا؟
+
+155
+00:11:42,050 --> 00:11:47,660
+وبالتالي هاي ..according to the nominal rates the
+
+156
+00:11:47,660 --> 00:11:51,800
+purchasing power decrease according to nominal
+
+157
+00:11:51,800 --> 00:11:56,540
+rates ال purchasing power هو الشراء تنخفض إذا
+
+158
+00:11:56,540 --> 00:12:00,940
+احنا عشان نخرج من الموضوع the real interest rates
+
+159
+00:12:00,940 --> 00:12:05,760
+growth rate of your purchasing power قداش احنا
+
+160
+00:12:05,760 --> 00:12:09,460
+بنشتري فعلا يعني بنيجي و نقول التلاتة دولار ايش
+
+161
+00:12:09,460 --> 00:12:14,070
+بيجيبوا و بنيجي التلاتة تلاف دولار ايش بيجيبوا هذا
+
+162
+00:12:14,070 --> 00:12:16,470
+.. هذا ال .. هذا ال comparison هذا هو ال ..
+
+163
+00:12:16,470 --> 00:12:20,270
+المقارنة يعني تقولليش أنا .. يعني أنتو روحوا على
+
+164
+00:12:20,270 --> 00:12:24,950
+مثلا على ال .. العراق تشتريوا مثلا تروحوا على مطعم
+
+165
+00:12:24,950 --> 00:12:29,010
+كبشة فلوس هيك لازم تحملوه معاكم روحوا على روسيا
+
+166
+00:12:29,010 --> 00:12:34,250
+نفس الشغل كبشة هيك بالعكس روحوا على اليابان يعني
+
+167
+00:12:34,250 --> 00:12:41,010
+باليابان يعني شيء بسيط طبعا قيمة تبعتهم قيمة كبيرة
+
+168
+00:12:41,920 --> 00:12:44,060
+يعني أنتو عشان تروحوا تعملوا كواجبة غدا في
+
+169
+00:12:44,060 --> 00:12:48,520
+اليابان يعني بتكلفكم 150.2 دولار طبعا الين
+
+170
+00:12:48,520 --> 00:12:51,900
+الياباني قيمته عالي الين الياباني قيمته عالية كتير
+
+171
+00:12:51,900 --> 00:12:55,700
+وبتسأل احنا هان ال purchasing power هي اللي بتحكم
+
+172
+00:12:55,700 --> 00:13:03,380
+يعني الدولار كدهش نقدر نشتري فيه كم نشتري how
+
+173
+00:13:03,380 --> 00:13:07,100
+many items هذا بيسميه purchasing power we are not
+
+174
+00:13:07,100 --> 00:13:12,150
+looking to dollar as a dollar ما نقدرش نقول one
+
+175
+00:13:12,150 --> 00:13:15,250
+hundred dollar is greater than one dollar this is
+
+176
+00:13:15,250 --> 00:13:18,410
+wrong ما نقدرش نقول مية دولار أكثر من دولار okay as a
+
+177
+00:13:18,410 --> 00:13:23,950
+number as a figure is fine كرقم صحيح لكن نيجي نسأل
+
+178
+00:13:23,950 --> 00:13:26,470
+قداش احنا بنشرب الدولار و قداش بنشرب ال one
+
+179
+00:13:26,470 --> 00:13:29,430
+hundred dollar هذا ال purchasing power اللي هي
+
+180
+00:13:29,430 --> 00:13:33,610
+التضخم أو معكوس التضخم لأن كل ما ال purchasing
+
+181
+00:13:33,610 --> 00:13:40,150
+power بتقل كل ما قيمة العملة بتنقل تمام بيحلخل في
+
+182
+00:13:40,150 --> 00:13:42,610
+تفاصيل اللي هو إن هال بال economics بس بدي هيكوا
+
+183
+00:13:42,610 --> 00:13:46,390
+تفهموا الفرق بين ال nominal و بين ال real ال
+
+184
+00:13:46,390 --> 00:13:50,230
+nominal هي سعر الفائدة الاسمي أو القيمة الاسمية
+
+185
+00:13:50,230 --> 00:13:57,210
+لنمو الكتلة النقدية قيمة اسمية لنمو القيمة النقدية
+
+186
+00:13:57,210 --> 00:14:02,690
+وهذا الحقيقة عادة generally speaking وهذا ممكن
+
+187
+00:14:02,690 --> 00:14:07,130
+أن تو مايكونيش متبهله generally speaking the real
+
+188
+00:14:07,130 --> 00:14:13,370
+interest rate is less than the nominal okay و بكرا
+
+189
+00:14:13,370 --> 00:14:18,030
+بجيبكوا إياها بالامتحان you stop in this دائما اه
+
+190
+00:14:18,030 --> 00:14:22,910
+generally speaking real is less than the nominal
+
+191
+00:14:22,910 --> 00:14:30,260
+دائما أقل دائما okay دائما أقل من ال nominal other
+
+192
+00:14:30,260 --> 00:14:35,620
+factors are equal يعني بقى ثبات الأوامر الأخرى طيب
+
+193
+00:14:35,620 --> 00:14:41,620
+let
+
+194
+00:14:41,620 --> 00:14:47,080
+R capital letter is equal to nominal بتساوي ال
+
+195
+00:14:47,080 --> 00:14:51,630
+nominal يعني ال nominal هو الاسم and R the small
+
+196
+00:14:51,630 --> 00:14:55,090
+one is real ليش عملناها small لأنه is less than
+
+197
+00:14:55,090 --> 00:14:59,430
+أقل لأن ال R الكبيرة greater than the R
+
+198
+00:14:59,430 --> 00:15:03,930
+small عشان أنتو if you get confused إذا أنتو
+
+199
+00:15:03,930 --> 00:15:08,370
+تداخلت عليكم الأمور ال R real rate of return is
+
+200
+00:15:08,370 --> 00:15:13,870
+less than the R nominal فال R is greater than R
+
+201
+00:15:13,870 --> 00:15:17,030
+okay
+
+202
+00:15:17,030 --> 00:15:26,400
+R is the opposite of this actually why real rate of
+
+203
+00:15:26,400 --> 00:15:30,240
+return is the inflation rate because of the
+
+204
+00:15:30,240 --> 00:15:38,680
+inflation rate okay so in this case R is equal R
+
+205
+00:15:38,680 --> 00:15:51,470
+ناقص plus I okay get confused يعني ال R هذه is
+
+206
+00:15:51,470 --> 00:16:02,250
+equal R plus the I تمام this is the case from
+
+207
+00:16:02,250 --> 00:16:04,830
+where the I is coming the interest rate of the 10
+
+208
+00:16:04,830 --> 00:16:06,730
+sorry the inflation rate
+
+209
+00:16:11,980 --> 00:16:23,480
+as I said R is up to .. R the small is equal R
+
+210
+00:16:23,480 --> 00:16:29,940
+minus I يعني زي اللي احنا حكينا هان R is equal R
+
+211
+00:16:29,940 --> 00:16:37,080
+plus I R is the nominal rate of return equal R is
+
+212
+00:16:37,080 --> 00:16:42,580
+the real plus I طب أنا إذا بدي R الناكسية بتساوي R
+
+213
+00:16:42,580 --> 00:16:49,720
+بتروح ال R هيك R minus I طبعا هاي مش exactly يعني
+
+214
+00:16:49,720 --> 00:16:55,080
+approximately تقريبا ليش approximately ليش احنا
+
+215
+00:16:55,080 --> 00:16:59,840
+حاطين نشوف ممكن
+
+216
+00:16:59,840 --> 00:17:04,540
+أو لا
+
+217
+00:17:04,540 --> 00:17:08,900
+في other factors في other reasons ثبات الأوامر
+
+218
+00:17:08,900 --> 00:17:12,660
+الأخرى بالظبط اتبعت لو لما حكيت ايش قلت other
+
+219
+00:17:12,660 --> 00:17:16,520
+factors are equal مع ثبات الأوامر الأخرى ال
+
+220
+00:17:16,520 --> 00:17:19,960
+liquidity و ال maturity و الأمور هذه كلها لأن
+
+221
+00:17:19,960 --> 00:17:22,160
+there is other factors there are other factors
+
+222
+00:17:22,160 --> 00:17:27,630
+influence on the real rate of return في other
+
+223
+00:17:27,630 --> 00:17:31,910
+factors بتأثر على rate of return فاحنا بس ثبتنا
+
+224
+00:17:31,910 --> 00:17:35,030
+الأعوام الأخرى لما حطينا هذه approximately احنا
+
+225
+00:17:35,030 --> 00:17:38,030
+ثبتنا الأعوام الأخرى and we just consider the
+
+226
+00:17:38,030 --> 00:17:42,050
+inflation بس احنا عطرفنا بال inflation so in the
+
+227
+00:17:42,050 --> 00:17:44,690
+next step we will consider the taxation the step
+
+228
+00:17:44,690 --> 00:17:50,510
+after we will consider the maturity and so on now
+
+229
+00:17:50,510 --> 00:17:50,630
+R
+
+230
+00:17:58,990 --> 00:18:02,870
+is equal to R minus I which is this one why we
+
+231
+00:18:02,870 --> 00:18:08,510
+divided one plus I we divided by one plus I
+
+232
+00:18:08,510 --> 00:18:12,150
+because of the growth rates ده نخصهم لأن احنا
+
+233
+00:18:12,150 --> 00:18:16,950
+رجعنا للتعريف
+
+234
+00:18:16,950 --> 00:18:20,690
+تبعنا قولنا إن ال real rate of return هو ال growth
+
+235
+00:18:20,690 --> 00:18:25,370
+في ال purchasing power so this is what we consider
+
+236
+00:18:25,370 --> 00:18:29,710
+the purchasing power Okay we consider the
+
+237
+00:18:29,710 --> 00:18:32,990
+purchasing power this is one plus I is the
+
+238
+00:18:32,990 --> 00:18:40,450
+purchasing power So at the
+
+239
+00:18:40,450 --> 00:18:44,290
+end of the day R is equal the big R which is the
+
+240
+00:18:44,290 --> 00:18:48,410
+nominal minus the inflation one plus the inflation
+
+241
+00:18:54,340 --> 00:18:59,560
+ال purchasing power اه أنت بتلاحظي ال R علاقتها
+
+242
+00:18:59,560 --> 00:19:04,360
+عكسية مع ال inflation طبعا يعني كل ما بتزيد ال
+
+243
+00:19:04,360 --> 00:19:11,780
+inflation ال real بتنخفض طبعا يعني خلينا نشوف
+
+244
+00:19:11,780 --> 00:19:17,880
+نعطيكوا مثال بسيط لو حكينا ال R ال big R is equal
+
+245
+00:19:17,880 --> 00:19:24,880
+fifteen percent و the small and I is equal to seven
+
+246
+00:19:24,880 --> 00:19:30,000
+percent calculate R approximately تدخلوش في
+
+247
+00:19:30,000 --> 00:19:34,900
+المعادلة هذه R كم؟ eight هتطلع R تساوي eight
+
+248
+00:19:34,900 --> 00:19:43,620
+percent طيب خلينا نزود ال I خليها 9% فتشوفوا كل ما
+
+249
+00:19:43,620 --> 00:19:48,420
+احنا بنرفع ال I كل ما ال R بتنخفض فبنسموها إيش؟
+
+250
+00:19:48,420 --> 00:19:52,860
+there is a negative relationship between the real
+
+251
+00:19:52,860 --> 00:19:58,580
+R and the purchasing power يعني في علاقة عكسية أو 
+
+252
+00:19:58,580 --> 00:20:01,660
+بين ال inflation كل ما احنا بنزيد ال inflation ال
+
+253
+00:20:01,660 --> 00:20:05,820
+real rate of return going down بتنخفض أو بتنزل 
+
+254
+00:20:05,820 --> 00:20:07,080
+لأسفل okay
+
+255
+00:20:12,230 --> 00:20:18,810
+هذه Economics اقتصاد أنتو أخدتوا اقتصاد لأ public
+
+256
+00:20:18,810 --> 00:20:25,850
+finance في المالية العامة طيب again the
+
+257
+00:20:25,850 --> 00:20:29,730
+equilibrium real rate of interest اللي احنا 
+
+258
+00:20:29,730 --> 00:20:32,490
+شرحنالكوا معاها المرة الفاتة بذلك اللي هو is
+
+259
+00:20:32,490 --> 00:20:35,870
+determined by supply and demand و احنا حكينا هذا هو
+
+260
+00:20:35,870 --> 00:20:39,210
+ال demand و هذا هو supply وقلنا ال interest
+
+261
+00:20:39,210 --> 00:20:42,840
+equilibrium هي بتساوي العرض والطلب هذا
+
+262
+00:20:42,840 --> 00:20:46,580
+theoretically هذا نظريا لكن لما احنا نروح على ال
+
+263
+00:20:46,580 --> 00:20:51,360
+real life to somewhat the supply and demand
+
+264
+00:20:51,360 --> 00:20:54,880
+influence on the interest rate of return يعني هذا
+
+265
+00:20:54,880 --> 00:20:56,800
+بدرسوكوا يا في الجامعات احنا we are in the
+
+266
+00:20:56,800 --> 00:21:00,860
+university now but I'm talking from a practical
+
+267
+00:21:00,860 --> 00:21:06,180
+point of view من وجهة نظر practical and let's say
+
+268
+00:21:06,180 --> 00:21:09,130
+from the business point of view هذا بتاخده في ال
+
+269
+00:21:09,130 --> 00:21:14,330
+MBA في ال master of business so in the MBA the
+
+270
+00:21:14,330 --> 00:21:17,910
+supply and demand is theoretically but in the real
+
+271
+00:21:17,910 --> 00:21:22,490
+life there are other factors influence on the real
+
+272
+00:21:22,490 --> 00:21:24,470
+rate of return in addition to the supply and
+
+273
+00:21:24,470 --> 00:21:30,450
+demand يعني في الواقع العملي في عوامل أخرى غير
+
+274
+00:21:30,450 --> 00:21:33,010
+supply and demand بتأثر على ال interest rate of
+
+275
+00:21:33,010 --> 00:21:39,200
+return Okay يعني it is not absolutely right that
+
+276
+00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:43,040
+the supply and demand only influence on the real
+
+277
+00:21:43,040 --> 00:21:46,460
+rate of return لأ هذا ممكن بكتير بجيبه بصح و غلط و
+
+278
+00:21:46,460 --> 00:21:49,440
+correct و شغلات زي هيك مش ال supply and demand
+
+279
+00:21:49,440 --> 00:21:54,160
+لوحدها يعني لأنه زي ما أنتو شايفين supply and
+
+280
+00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:57,240
+demand one of these factors there are other
+
+281
+00:21:57,240 --> 00:22:01,400
+factors government actions and I explained it in
+
+282
+00:22:01,400 --> 00:22:05,050
+the previous meeting حكينا ال monetary policy و ال
+
+283
+00:22:05,050 --> 00:22:08,590
+financial policy مذاكرين؟ other factors مش supply
+
+284
+00:22:08,590 --> 00:22:12,710
+and demand ممكن احنا وجرنا case بال research انه
+
+285
+00:22:12,710 --> 00:22:16,370
+supply and demand fixed خليها fixed ثابتة ثبتناهم
+
+286
+00:22:16,370 --> 00:22:20,010
+supply and demand is fixed and let's consider the
+
+287
+00:22:20,010 --> 00:22:24,490
+change in other factors and we observe that when
+
+288
+00:22:24,490 --> 00:22:27,990
+we change in other factors we see the interest
+
+289
+00:22:27,990 --> 00:22:32,990
+rate change ثبتنا العرض والطلب
+
+290
+00:22:36,810 --> 00:22:42,150
+بنثبت العرض، فالفائدة تتغير، هي تطلع لتجاه تنزل، و
+
+291
+00:22:42,150 --> 00:22:45,270
+نفس العملية دي، بنتبت الفائدة .. الطلب .. طبعا ..
+
+292
+00:22:45,270 --> 00:22:50,470
+بنتبت العرض اللي هيتغير .. طب .. فممكن احنا نأثر
+
+293
+00:22:50,470 --> 00:22:54,570
+بطريقة معينة، يعني مثلا خلينا نعطيكي مثال، على
+
+294
+00:22:54,570 --> 00:22:57,750
+العرض والطلب، روحنا احنا ايش؟ ال investor
+
+295
+00:22:57,750 --> 00:23:01,230
+perceptions مش supply and demand، investor
+
+296
+00:23:01,230 --> 00:23:04,350
+perceptions، ال investor perceptions ممكن يتغير ال
+
+297
+00:23:04,350 --> 00:23:10,070
+interest rate ال government actions ال government
+
+298
+00:23:10,070 --> 00:23:13,570
+حاسة أن الاستثمارات كتير بتزيد في البلد و هم لازم
+
+299
+00:23:13,570 --> 00:23:18,010
+يعملوا ايش؟ تهدئة يعني زي مثلا احنا نشوف قطار سريع
+
+300
+00:23:18,010 --> 00:23:22,590
+مش مصلحة الدولة يكون عندها نمو عالي جدا لإن أنتو
+
+301
+00:23:22,590 --> 00:23:26,350
+.. لما أنتو بتيجوا قطار سريع جدا و ممكن تصير
+
+302
+00:23:26,350 --> 00:23:31,770
+مشكلة بتقدروا توقفوا .. اه؟ بتقدروا توقفوا هذا
+
+303
+00:23:31,770 --> 00:23:37,080
+القطار؟ في فيلم كتير فيلم American عمل عن unmanned
+
+304
+00:23:37,080 --> 00:23:45,480
+train unmanned اه unmanned trains هذا train طلع ال
+
+305
+00:23:45,480 --> 00:23:51,640
+.. unmanned يعني train بلا يقولوه رجل كل القصة كيف
+
+306
+00:23:51,640 --> 00:23:55,240
+يواجفه ال train فلو when the train is going fast
+
+307
+00:23:55,240 --> 00:23:58,480
+طبعا هاي ال economics بتدخل عنه when it's going
+
+308
+00:23:58,480 --> 00:24:03,180
+fast no one can stop it and may kill thousand
+
+309
+00:24:03,180 --> 00:24:07,200
+people لما الاشي يروح الاقتصاد ينمو بسرعة هتلاقي
+
+310
+00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:10,220
+كتير ناس فقراء و ناس محتاجين و ناس كذا كذا كذا
+
+311
+00:24:10,220 --> 00:24:14,220
+فبالتالي هذه مشكلة يعني don't think that the
+
+312
+00:24:14,220 --> 00:24:18,660
+highest growth in the economy is good for the
+
+313
+00:24:18,660 --> 00:24:21,900
+country لأ إذا كان في moderate عشان نعمل .. احنا
+
+314
+00:24:21,900 --> 00:24:26,240
+نقدر نعمل عليه control if you going fast you can
+
+315
+00:24:26,240 --> 00:24:30,240
+go down easily انتبه لل .. اذا بتطلعوا بسرعة
+
+316
+00:24:30,240 --> 00:24:34,900
+هتنزلوا بسرعة just go relax okay take your time
+
+317
+00:24:34,900 --> 00:24:40,440
+بالأخير at the end of the day will go okay let's
+
+318
+00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:43,040
+see so as I mentioned before supply and demand
+
+319
+00:24:43,040 --> 00:24:46,140
+government actions expected rate of inflation
+
+320
+00:24:46,140 --> 00:24:50,840
+التوقع بتاع ال inflation انشوف
+
+321
+00:25:13,790 --> 00:25:18,690
+لما بزيد ال demand ال interest rate هتزيد so ال
+
+322
+00:25:18,690 --> 00:25:23,360
+equilibrium will increase فزي ما احنا شايفين equal
+
+323
+00:25:23,360 --> 00:25:26,920
+preamble rate of interest will go up مع احنا و
+
+324
+00:25:26,920 --> 00:25:34,160
+احنا ثبتنا ايش ثبتنا العرض ثبتنا العرض اتفضل ال
+
+325
+00:25:34,160 --> 00:25:38,160
+demand طلع شوف ال demand مش زاد لما احنا بننظر لما
+
+326
+00:25:38,160 --> 00:25:45,160
+يكون هيك شوف ال demand طلع من انتقل going up زي ما
+
+327
+00:25:45,160 --> 00:25:50,200
+قلتوا shifting to the right و لو نزل لو نزل مانتوش
+
+328
+00:25:50,200 --> 00:25:56,370
+فيها ايش ال equilibrium صار؟ زاد ولا خفض؟ شو عرفك
+
+329
+00:25:56,370 --> 00:26:05,130
+زاد؟ هو اه، بيبين هيك، شفتي؟ فهو زاد و ال
+
+330
+00:26:05,130 --> 00:26:11,550
+equilibrium fund بزيد بزيد لأنه الفلوس كمان هتزيد
+
+331
+00:26:11,550 --> 00:26:13,670
+أن تو انظروا ال interest rate و ال equilibrium
+
+332
+00:26:13,670 --> 00:26:18,730
+fund طب لو كان العكس is the opposite شوفوا العكس
+
+333
+00:26:18,730 --> 00:26:25,110
+العكس أن ال demand ينخفض فإذا كان ال demand انخفض
+
+334
+00:26:25,110 --> 00:26:30,950
+فإيش هيصير ال interest rate هتنخفض طبعا مع اعتبار
+
+335
+00:26:30,950 --> 00:26:35,750
+other factors are equal مع ثبات العوامل الأخرى
+
+336
+00:26:35,750 --> 00:26:42,930
+طبعا
+
+337
+00:26:42,930 --> 00:26:45,090
+طلعوا احنا جانب الأرض ال fund بزيد
+
+338
+00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:50,660
+جانب ال demand كل ما بزيد ال fund بزيد الطلب على
+
+339
+00:26:50,660 --> 00:26:54,340
+ال interest rate على هيك اعتبار لما أعطيتكوا مثال
+
+340
+00:26:54,340 --> 00:26:57,280
+لما يكون Bank فلسطين عنده 100 دولار و طلب على 200
+
+341
+00:26:57,280 --> 00:27:01,500
+دولار فبضطر Bank فلسطين أنّه making the price up
+
+342
+00:27:01,500 --> 00:27:04,780
+يرفع سعر الفائدة إذا كان الطلب أقل فبضطر أنّه ينزل
+
+343
+00:27:04,780 --> 00:27:13,440
+سعر الفائدة okay let's see here if you go down just
+
+344
+00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:17,220
+picture this picture this you know what I mean
+
+345
+00:27:17,220 --> 00:27:20,660
+يعني صوروا الكلام هذا اتصورواه تخيلوا in detail by
+
+346
+00:27:20,660 --> 00:27:22,740
+supply and demand we talk about supply and demand
+
+347
+00:27:22,740 --> 00:27:26,720
+the government actions this is covered in public
+
+348
+00:27:26,720 --> 00:27:32,090
+finance or banking and money اللي هو بتتخطى في مادة
+
+349
+00:27:32,090 --> 00:27:36,650
+اسمها بنوق ونقود مركزية أو نقود و بنوق مركزية the
+
+350
+00:27:36,650 --> 00:27:39,710
+expected rate of inflation خليني أشوف the expected
+
+351
+00:27:39,710 --> 00:27:42,390
+rate of inflation how influence on this we talk
+
+352
+00:27:42,390 --> 00:27:46,930
+about supply and demand see as the inflation rate
+
+353
+00:27:46,930 --> 00:27:51,790
+increases كل ما زادت ال inflation rate investors
+
+354
+00:27:51,790 --> 00:27:56,150
+will demand higher nominal rates of return يعني كل
+
+355
+00:27:56,150 --> 00:28:02,030
+ما بزيد ال inflation التضخم بيصيروا investors بدهم
+
+356
+00:28:02,030 --> 00:28:07,670
+بيزيدوا ال nominal عشان يصير تعويض في ال rate of
+
+357
+00:28:07,670 --> 00:28:14,690
+return okay if e if ei donates for current
+
+358
+00:28:14,690 --> 00:28:20,130
+expectations of inflation اللي هو توقعنا على
+
+359
+00:28:20,130 --> 00:28:25,770
+التضخم يعني لو احنا توقعنا مثلا احنا معانا عندنا
+
+360
+00:28:25,770 --> 00:28:34,390
+استثمار بيجيب 10% أنتو في روسيا عايشين وين؟ في
+
+361
+00:28:34,390 --> 00:28:38,870
+روسيا وعندكوا استثمار واحد راح قال والله الاستثمار
+
+362
+00:28:38,870 --> 00:28:45,090
+في روسيا اشي مخيف بعمل مصاري كتير وانا okay اذا
+
+363
+00:28:45,090 --> 00:28:49,210
+أن تو في روسيا you think before the going to
+
+364
+00:28:49,210 --> 00:28:54,830
+Russia جمعت روحه ع روسيا 10% if you go to Russia So
+
+365
+00:28:54,830 --> 00:28:59,210
+in .. in .. in Russia the .. the inflation .. the
+
+366
+00:28:59,210 --> 00:29:03,370
+expected inflation let's say for instance 30% هه
+
+367
+00:29:03,370 --> 00:29:08,430
+هذا ال I ال I 30% what is the nominal rate of
+
+368
+00:29:08,430 --> 00:29:15,290
+return تتوقعوا؟ هينزيده لأنه هيكون 10% plus 30%
+
+369
+00:29:15,290 --> 00:29:20,010
+العشرة في المية زادت تلاتين في المية إذا ما زدناهوش هنخسر
+
+370
+00:29:20,870 --> 00:29:24,250
+إذا ما زدناش ال .. ال اول expectations هنخسر يعني
+
+371
+00:29:24,250 --> 00:29:29,290
+احنا اليوم جاعدين .. بنروح نستثمر بعشرة في المية و
+
+372
+00:29:29,290 --> 00:29:32,710
+لما روحنا ع روسيا لإنه في تضخم في روسيا، مظبوط ولا
+
+373
+00:29:32,710 --> 00:29:36,710
+لأ؟ التضخم بيوصل .. يعني كان في فترات بتعرف التضخم
+
+374
+00:29:36,710 --> 00:29:41,110
+يوصل ل 200% اه يعني ال 100 دولار تبقى .. أقولك
+
+375
+00:29:41,110 --> 00:29:46,470
+كمان شغلة؟ شغل أكتر، بتروح ع روسيا في مطعم، محطوش 
+
+376
+00:29:46,470 --> 00:29:50,860
+الـ .. الـ menu الـ price تبقى أكثر بيحطوكي الـ menu بس
+
+377
+00:29:50,860 --> 00:29:56,880
+بيحطوكيش الـ price ليش؟ لأنه بتتغير كل ساعة ال
+
+378
+00:29:56,880 --> 00:30:00,260
+inflation rates اه بتتغير كل ساعة جاعد فإنه ممكن
+
+379
+00:30:00,260 --> 00:30:05,760
+أنت تدخل الواجبة يكون مثلا إيش العملة تبقى تروسيا؟
+
+380
+00:30:05,760 --> 00:30:11,220
+إيش عملت روسيا؟ رابل؟ اه رابل روبيا عملت إيش؟
+
+381
+00:30:11,220 --> 00:30:15,060
+الهند ف رابل اللي هو العملة عملت روسيا فأول ما
+
+382
+00:30:15,060 --> 00:30:20,830
+تدخل انتبتكون سعرة الواجبة طبعا رخيصة مش غالية سعر
+
+383
+00:30:20,830 --> 00:30:25,830
+الواجبة مثلا ten dollar سعر كام؟ ten dollar بتكون
+
+384
+00:30:25,830 --> 00:30:30,990
+انت okay يمكن لما تخلص تصير اتناشر دولار لأنه في
+
+385
+00:30:30,990 --> 00:30:37,250
+في inflation في تضخم the denominator is equal to the
+
+386
+00:30:37,250 --> 00:30:40,650
+real rate of return or the real interest plus the
+
+387
+00:30:40,650 --> 00:30:43,630
+expectation of inflation or the expected inflation
+
+388
+00:30:43,630 --> 00:30:50,400
+المتوقع وحكينا كل ما هذه بتزيد بتأثر على هذه على ال
+
+389
+00:30:50,400 --> 00:30:56,180
+R الـ small r اللي هو الـ real real اه اذا حكينا على
+
+390
+00:30:56,180 --> 00:30:58,580
+الـ inflation حكينا على supply and demand let's
+
+391
+00:30:58,580 --> 00:31:04,880
+talk about the taxation expected E is the expected
+
+392
+00:31:04,880 --> 00:31:13,600
+inflation ماشي أمل so the expected I
+
+393
+00:31:14,730 --> 00:31:20,350
+is important so if we think the expected rate of
+
+394
+00:31:20,350 --> 00:31:24,230
+.. the expected I will increase it means R will
+
+395
+00:31:24,230 --> 00:31:28,770
+increase طبعا ليش احنا الـ R مابتأثرش هان الـ small
+
+396
+00:31:28,770 --> 00:31:33,170
+r because R is a function of both هي .. هي علاقة
+
+397
+00:31:33,170 --> 00:31:37,390
+بين طرفين the nominal rate of return and the
+
+398
+00:31:37,390 --> 00:31:41,650
+expected inflation طبعا يعني هي بتأثر في ال
+
+399
+00:31:41,650 --> 00:31:47,930
+expected inflation نحكي عن الـ taxes طبعا طلعوا على
+
+400
+00:31:47,930 --> 00:31:50,770
+الخريطة اللي احنا رسمناها أول ما جينا قولنا ال
+
+401
+00:31:50,770 --> 00:31:54,610
+real rate of return بتتأثر في الـ I و في الـ taxes و
+
+402
+00:31:54,610 --> 00:31:58,750
+في الـ period او في الـ maturity حكينا .. حكينا عن
+
+403
+00:31:58,750 --> 00:32:04,950
+الـ I not any R not any R which R I'm talking now
+
+404
+00:32:04,950 --> 00:32:13,190
+real مش IR الحقيقية بالظبط الـ tax تفضل
+
+405
+00:32:18,570 --> 00:32:23,050
+بتتناسب عكسي .. مش مع ال .. بتتناسب عكسي مع ال ..
+
+406
+00:32:23,050 --> 00:32:27,230
+مع الـ push chasing و مع الـ inflation اللي هو واحد
+
+407
+00:32:27,230 --> 00:32:27,710
+زائد I 
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/kEwUOp3TXiE_postprocess.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/kEwUOp3TXiE_postprocess.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..0d3c052fcb4eb2810c5ccf87d8b62e0323e42201
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/kEwUOp3TXiE_postprocess.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1960 @@
+1
+00:00:22,270 --> 00:00:26,250
+بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم اليوم ان شاء الله هن ..
+
+2
+00:00:26,250 --> 00:00:29,270
+هنكمل كيف احنا نعمل construction ل portfolio
+
+3
+00:00:29,270 --> 00:00:33,870
+construction يعني نعمل بناء لمحفظة استثمارية الهدف
+
+4
+00:00:33,870 --> 00:00:38,950
+الرئيسي عشان احنا نبني محفظة استثمارية اتذكر دائما
+
+5
+00:00:38,950 --> 00:00:44,730
+the main objective of building a particular
+
+6
+00:00:44,730 --> 00:00:50,080
+portfolio is increase returnو Decrease Risk OK هذا
+
+7
+00:00:50,080 --> 00:01:00,800
+ما اقوله عندما نصنع Portfolio فقط انظر هنا اعادة و
+
+8
+00:01:00,800 --> 00:01:04,020
+Decrease
+
+9
+00:01:04,020 --> 00:01:15,180
+Risk من نظر الاستثمار ما يعنيه؟ يعنيthat once we
+
+10
+00:01:15,180 --> 00:01:20,540
+increase return and decrease risk we maximize the
+
+11
+00:01:20,540 --> 00:01:30,980
+utility نحنا
+
+12
+00:01:30,980 --> 00:01:37,740
+بنعظم السرعة at the end when we increase return
+
+13
+00:01:37,740 --> 00:01:41,040
+and decrease risk we maximize the utility
+
+14
+00:01:44,380 --> 00:01:50,740
+Okay so my question today how we maximize the
+
+15
+00:01:50,740 --> 00:01:56,020
+utility كيف احنا ممكن نعظم المنفع okay and our
+
+16
+00:01:56,020 --> 00:02:02,720
+focus today is only on this particular subject on
+
+17
+00:02:02,720 --> 00:02:06,300
+maximizing the utility because investors not only
+
+18
+00:02:06,300 --> 00:02:10,930
+looking at the returnأو الـ Risk، ولكن إما أنهم
+
+19
+00:02:10,930 --> 00:02:13,810
+ينظروا إلى كلا البعض Risk و Return في الوقت نفسه.
+
+20
+00:02:14,930 --> 00:02:22,190
+لذلك كما قلنا، الوثيقة هي إيقاط الوصول الى الـ
+
+21
+00:02:22,190 --> 00:02:26,290
+Return المتوقع مناسبة
+
+22
+00:02:26,290 --> 00:02:36,150
+نصف A سجن المساعدة، فقط لأذكركم في الوثيقةيعني زي
+
+23
+00:02:36,150 --> 00:02:38,690
+ما احنا حكينا ال utility بتساوي ال expected return
+
+24
+00:02:38,690 --> 00:02:43,550
+of the particular portfolio okay minus half of a,
+
+25
+00:02:43,670 --> 00:02:50,490
+a is risk aversion and sigma square let's take
+
+26
+00:02:50,490 --> 00:02:54,770
+this example to see the importance of utility ناخد
+
+27
+00:02:54,770 --> 00:02:56,430
+مثال عشان نشوف أهمية ال utility
+
+28
+00:03:01,300 --> 00:03:04,120
+as .. as I mentioned in the previous meeting زي ما
+
+29
+00:03:04,120 --> 00:03:08,700
+أنا حكيت في ال previous meeting الفات حكينا إنه
+
+30
+00:03:08,700 --> 00:03:13,160
+إذا إحنا بنعمل portfolio يعني I just am
+
+31
+00:03:13,160 --> 00:03:15,980
+summarizing what I said to integrate you with the
+
+32
+00:03:15,980 --> 00:03:18,540
+.. with the subject today يعني أنا قاعد برجعلكم
+
+33
+00:03:18,540 --> 00:03:22,120
+الكلام اللي حكيته أول عشان نحطكم بالصورة تبعت
+
+34
+00:03:22,120 --> 00:03:28,040
+اليوم for instance if we have this portfolio يعني
+
+35
+00:03:28,040 --> 00:03:34,210
+واحد مع مثلا one thousand dollarاستثمار جزء من
+
+36
+00:03:34,210 --> 00:03:50,330
+1000 دولار في مصادر رخيصة ورخيص حر ورخيص
+
+37
+00:03:50,330 --> 00:03:57,570
+حر دعونا نعرف المصادر الرخيصة ك P ورخيص حر ك F
+
+38
+00:04:02,310 --> 00:04:09,510
+بعد ذلك نستخدم مصالحنا الـ 1000$ كم نستخدمه في F و
+
+39
+00:04:09,510 --> 00:04:15,990
+كم نستخدمه في B هذا يعني الشخصية اللي استخدمها في
+
+40
+00:04:15,990 --> 00:04:21,950
+F و الشخصية اللي استخدمها في B الشخصية اللي
+
+41
+00:04:21,950 --> 00:04:27,690
+استخدمها في B نسميها Y و الشخصية اللي استخدمها في
+
+42
+00:04:27,690 --> 00:04:36,080
+F هي 1-Yمثلًا إذا قمنا بالاستثمار في 70% من الـ Y
+
+43
+00:04:36,080 --> 00:04:49,300
+فهذا يعني أن الباقية هي 30% من 1-Y حتى
+
+44
+00:04:49,300 --> 00:04:57,660
+اللحظة التي أقولها إذا كنت ترغب في تخطيط إعادة
+
+45
+00:04:57,660 --> 00:05:02,040
+بورتفاليو تماملذلك إذا كنت أردت تخطيط إعادة
+
+46
+00:05:02,040 --> 00:05:06,100
+البرتفالي المكتمل C هو مصطلح البرتفالي المكتمل،
+
+47
+00:05:06,100 --> 00:05:13,940
+فهو يعني Y بRb
+
+48
+00:05:13,940 --> 00:05:23,900
+plus 1 minus Y times Rf، هل هذا صحيح؟ على سبيل
+
+49
+00:05:23,900 --> 00:05:35,600
+المثال، إذا ف7%وإذا عدد عدد عدد P هو 15% فرصة
+
+50
+00:05:35,600 --> 00:05:51,980
+Rc هي 70% X 15% Plus 1-Y هو 30% X 7% فهو
+
+51
+00:05:51,980 --> 00:06:03,070
+بسيط جدا فإن عدد عدد عدد PortfolioY times RP plus
+
+52
+00:06:03,070 --> 00:06:08,070
+one minus Y times RF return of the free risk and
+
+53
+00:06:08,070 --> 00:06:15,090
+the return of the risky portfolio okay so we don't
+
+54
+00:06:15,090 --> 00:06:19,770
+have problem now okay so this is we talk about RC
+
+55
+00:06:19,770 --> 00:06:26,230
+we talk about RCدعونا نتكلم عن فرصة هذا
+
+56
+00:06:26,230 --> 00:06:36,890
+البرتفاليون سيجما C سيجما C سيجما C هو في نفس
+
+57
+00:06:36,890 --> 00:06:45,890
+الطريقة سيجما C هو يقل دعونا نقول Y سيجما B plus 1
+
+58
+00:06:45,890 --> 00:06:52,330
+minus Y سيجما F هل هذا صحيح؟
+
+59
+00:06:55,020 --> 00:07:06,840
+إذا كنا نعرف أن صفر F يقل 0 إذا صفر F يقل 0، فصفر
+
+60
+00:07:06,840 --> 00:07:10,580
+C يقل
+
+61
+00:07:10,580 --> 00:07:22,440
+Y بصفر B إذا كنا نريد أن نقدم Y، فصفر Y يقل صفر C
+
+62
+00:07:22,440 --> 00:07:24,040
+بصفر B
+
+63
+00:07:29,860 --> 00:07:37,460
+Okay it is very simple any questions so far حكينا
+
+64
+00:07:37,460 --> 00:07:44,940
+احنا we have a portfolio with 1000$ محفظة ألف
+
+65
+00:07:44,940 --> 00:07:52,480
+دولار we divided the portfolio into two parts يعني
+
+66
+00:07:52,480 --> 00:07:58,100
+استثمرنا في في risk assets سميناها Pوفي risk-free
+
+67
+00:07:58,100 --> 00:08:03,420
+assets سمنها F okay so if we consider that we
+
+68
+00:08:03,420 --> 00:08:08,280
+invest 70 percent portion which is Y, Y هي الوزن
+
+69
+00:08:08,280 --> 00:08:13,640
+so one minus Y is equal to 30 percent يعني سبعين
+
+70
+00:08:13,640 --> 00:08:15,880
+في المية زائد تلاتين في المية one hundred percent
+
+71
+00:08:15,880 --> 00:08:22,880
+okay now if you want to calculate the RC what it
+
+72
+00:08:22,880 --> 00:08:27,740
+means RC it meansوالعادة لـ Complete Portfolio
+
+73
+00:08:27,740 --> 00:08:32,020
+ماذا يعني Complete Portfolio؟ Portfolio يحتوي على
+
+74
+00:08:32,020 --> 00:08:33,820
+أساتذة خطرية و أساتذة خلطة خلطة خلطة خلطة خلطة
+
+75
+00:08:33,820 --> 00:08:45,480
+خلطة خلطة خلطة خلطة خلطة خلطة
+
+76
+00:08:45,910 --> 00:08:52,370
+الأسد المخاطر مرة واحدة مقاومة الاسد المخاطر YRP
+
+77
+00:08:52,370 --> 00:08:59,090
+plus one minus Y times RF ثم النتائج RC هي فقط
+
+78
+00:08:59,090 --> 00:09:05,310
+تفعل الأشياء المثالية الآن ننتهي من عملية الترجمة
+
+79
+00:09:05,310 --> 00:09:12,380
+للعودة لـ Sigma Cit is in the same way we do this
+
+80
+00:09:12,380 --> 00:09:18,740
+y sigma b plus one minus y sigma f but be careful
+
+81
+00:09:18,740 --> 00:09:24,160
+here انتبهوا يعني because this is we assume in
+
+82
+00:09:24,160 --> 00:09:29,560
+this problem we assume that we ignore the
+
+83
+00:09:29,560 --> 00:09:34,000
+correlation between between the free assets and
+
+84
+00:09:34,000 --> 00:09:38,360
+risky assets يعني احنا اتجاهلنا اي ارتباط بيناتهم
+
+85
+00:09:39,440 --> 00:09:46,380
+لأنه في الشباتر القادمة if there is a correlation
+
+86
+00:09:46,380 --> 00:09:49,640
+so we have to change the structure of this
+
+87
+00:09:49,640 --> 00:09:53,800
+equation لازم نغير ال structure تبعتنا ال equation
+
+88
+00:09:53,800 --> 00:10:01,260
+تبعتنا okay okay so now why we are estimating the
+
+89
+00:10:01,260 --> 00:10:04,840
+portfolio as as I said the the main important
+
+90
+00:10:04,840 --> 00:10:11,210
+things isلإزالة المستقبل و لإنقاذ المخاطر بطريقة
+
+91
+00:10:11,210 --> 00:10:14,950
+مختلفة بكلمة مختلفة بكلمة مختلفة بكلمة مختلفة
+
+92
+00:10:14,950 --> 00:10:16,730
+بكلمة مختلفة بكلمة مختلفة بكلمة مختلفة بكلمة
+
+93
+00:10:16,730 --> 00:10:16,750
+مختلفة بكلمة مختلفة بكلمة مختلفة بكلمة مختلفة
+
+94
+00:10:16,750 --> 00:10:17,430
+بكلمة مختلفة بكلمة مختلفة بكلمة مختلفة بكلمة
+
+95
+00:10:17,430 --> 00:10:18,710
+مختلفة بكلمة مختلفة بكلمة مختلفة بكلمة مختلفة
+
+96
+00:10:18,710 --> 00:10:18,770
+بكلمة مختلفة بكلمة مختلفة بكلمة مختلفة بكلمة
+
+97
+00:10:18,770 --> 00:10:21,890
+مختلفة بكلمة مختلفة
+
+98
+00:10:21,890 --> 00:10:26,050
+بكلمة
+
+99
+00:10:26,050 --> 00:10:33,070
+مختلفة بكلمة مختلفة بكلمة م
+
+100
+00:10:35,420 --> 00:10:37,840
+How we can maximize you?
+
+101
+00:10:41,060 --> 00:10:44,220
+Maximizing you depends on the structure of our
+
+102
+00:10:44,220 --> 00:10:49,740
+portfolio Maximizing you depends on the structure
+
+103
+00:10:49,740 --> 00:10:55,920
+of our portfolio It means how much we invest in
+
+104
+00:10:55,920 --> 00:10:59,340
+risky assets and how much we invest in risky free
+
+105
+00:10:59,340 --> 00:11:06,680
+assetsOkay. So it's .. So as I said if this is the
+
+106
+00:11:06,680 --> 00:11:11,080
+F and you know what it means F and this is B and
+
+107
+00:11:11,080 --> 00:11:15,280
+you know what it means B. Just to remind you F is
+
+108
+00:11:15,280 --> 00:11:19,940
+the risky free assets and B is the risky assets.
+
+109
+00:11:20,820 --> 00:11:24,120
+The big question is how much we invest in F and
+
+110
+00:11:24,120 --> 00:11:26,960
+how much we invest in B. Let's for instance take
+
+111
+00:11:26,960 --> 00:11:30,570
+this example here.you know what it means why now
+
+112
+00:11:30,570 --> 00:11:37,610
+no why be careful why so this is why this is the
+
+113
+00:11:37,610 --> 00:11:43,710
+expected return of RC this is the sigma C this is
+
+114
+00:11:43,710 --> 00:11:47,370
+the utility okay
+
+115
+00:11:47,370 --> 00:11:51,030
+you know what it means why
+
+116
+00:11:58,630 --> 00:12:04,290
+عطيني جملة كاملة what it means what it means why
+
+117
+00:12:04,290 --> 00:12:15,890
+انا
+
+118
+00:12:15,890 --> 00:12:21,270
+very very strictly with what you said لان this is
+
+119
+00:12:21,270 --> 00:12:26,850
+investment هذا استثمار و careful when you answer
+
+120
+00:12:26,850 --> 00:12:32,010
+the questionما يعنيه ويه؟ يعني انها مجزرة من
+
+121
+00:12:32,010 --> 00:12:36,030
+الاستثمار من أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار
+
+122
+00:12:36,030 --> 00:12:36,690
+أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار
+
+123
+00:12:36,690 --> 00:12:40,570
+أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار
+
+124
+00:12:40,570 --> 00:12:41,530
+أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار
+
+125
+00:12:41,530 --> 00:12:42,250
+أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار
+
+126
+00:12:42,250 --> 00:12:43,510
+أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار
+
+127
+00:12:43,510 --> 00:12:51,090
+أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار
+
+128
+00:12:51,090 --> 00:12:54,910
+أ
+
+129
+00:12:57,040 --> 00:13:04,840
+Okay Now if you invest in Y So Zero Explain it to
+
+130
+00:13:04,840 --> 00:13:12,740
+me what it means if Zero if Y equals Zero So
+
+131
+00:13:12,740 --> 00:13:19,900
+how much the expected return of RC كم؟
+
+132
+00:13:19,900 --> 00:13:23,460
+Seven Yes Seven Seven percent
+
+133
+00:13:27,870 --> 00:13:33,430
+أذا ماهو سيجما C؟ Zero ماذا هو الوثيقة؟ الوثيقة
+
+134
+00:13:33,430 --> 00:13:38,210
+أنك تحتاج إعلان إضافي إذا كنت تعرف الوثيقة تحتاج A
+
+135
+00:13:38,210 --> 00:13:45,950
+لأن الوثيقة هي عملية عودة توقع A مناسبة نصف سيجما
+
+136
+00:13:45,950 --> 00:13:52,710
+أو نصف A سيجما المساواة إذا كنت تعرف أن A هو اكتر
+
+137
+00:13:52,710 --> 00:13:57,920
+من 4، فتطبيق الوثيقةبس طبق المعادلة you will find
+
+138
+00:13:57,920 --> 00:14:10,140
+you شو ايه؟ what it means أيه؟
+
+139
+00:14:10,140 --> 00:14:14,080
+اه
+
+140
+00:14:14,080 --> 00:14:17,140
+اه so what is أيه؟ what it means أيه؟
+
+141
+00:14:24,390 --> 00:14:28,650
+Okay if .. if you have higher A what it means؟
+
+142
+00:14:28,650 --> 00:14:33,270
+دلوقت
+
+143
+00:14:33,270 --> 00:14:37,430
+الجانب هذا if you have higher A what it means؟ we
+
+144
+00:14:37,430 --> 00:14:42,330
+know this but if we have higher A if you have
+
+145
+00:14:42,330 --> 00:14:45,190
+higher A you are more prefer risk or less prefer
+
+146
+00:14:45,190 --> 00:14:49,430
+risk? less prefer risk if you have .. if you have
+
+147
+00:14:49,430 --> 00:14:53,440
+lower Aإذا كان عندكم lower a what it means؟ higher
+
+148
+00:14:53,440 --> 00:14:59,880
+risk okay just just be careful here if a because
+
+149
+00:14:59,880 --> 00:15:03,940
+now we have some some people they don't understand
+
+150
+00:15:03,940 --> 00:15:13,840
+what exactly mean a so a is located a
+
+151
+00:15:13,840 --> 00:15:26,120
+sometimes equal zeroA أكبر من 0 A أقل من 0 إذا
+
+152
+00:15:26,120 --> 00:15:36,140
+كان A أقل من 0 نسمي هذا الشخص ريسكا نيوترال ريسكا
+
+153
+00:15:36,140 --> 00:15:44,000
+نيوترال ما يعنيه ريسكا نيوترالpeople with a equal
+
+154
+00:15:44,000 --> 00:15:48,320
+zero it means they don't need compensation for a
+
+155
+00:15:48,320 --> 00:15:52,540
+particular risk but if people with a greater than
+
+156
+00:15:52,540 --> 00:15:59,600
+zero it's people become more risk aversion if
+
+157
+00:15:59,600 --> 00:16:06,040
+people with a less than zero it means okay if a
+
+158
+00:16:06,040 --> 00:16:11,340
+less than zero اذا كانت ال a أقل من zero بتكون
+
+159
+00:16:14,170 --> 00:16:21,310
+لأ بيكون هدول risk lovers طيب هدول risk neutral
+
+160
+00:16:21,310 --> 00:16:25,250
+هدول
+
+161
+00:16:25,250 --> 00:16:33,210
+risk aversion وهدول
+
+162
+00:16:33,210 --> 00:16:38,770
+risk lovers risk
+
+163
+00:16:38,770 --> 00:16:42,630
+lovers خليني أشوف طلعوا على الخط العداد هنا
+
+164
+00:16:45,770 --> 00:16:52,370
+بس انتبهوا هن، هتفهميها هن، إذا كان هن zero، بيكون
+
+165
+00:16:52,370 --> 00:16:55,970
+ال neutral هن
+
+166
+00:16:55,970 --> 00:17:00,690
+هيك أشمال إيش أقل من zero ولا أكبر من zero؟ أقل من
+
+167
+00:17:00,690 --> 00:17:04,770
+zero إذا أقل من zero هن الناس إيش بيكونوا؟ risk
+
+168
+00:17:04,770 --> 00:17:10,530
+lovers طب إذا كانت أكتر من zero risk aversion
+
+169
+00:17:13,340 --> 00:17:17,200
+كل ما بنبتعد عن ال zero when we go from left to
+
+170
+00:17:17,200 --> 00:17:22,940
+right it means we become more risk aversion when
+
+171
+00:17:22,940 --> 00:17:27,420
+we are closing to zero and passing the zero to the
+
+172
+00:17:27,420 --> 00:17:33,140
+left become more risk lovers يعني احنا بنكون اكثر
+
+173
+00:17:33,140 --> 00:17:38,320
+بنحب المخاطر تمام؟ هذه ال aو أعتقد أني قبل
+
+174
+00:17:38,320 --> 00:17:43,780
+محاضرتين أحطيتكم what it means ايه، مظبوط ولا لأ؟
+
+175
+00:17:43,780 --> 00:17:49,580
+و أعطينا more explanation about this okay so now a
+
+176
+00:17:49,580 --> 00:17:54,620
+it means clear now risk
+
+177
+00:17:54,620 --> 00:17:58,840
+neutral يعني they don't care about risk مش سألنا
+
+178
+00:17:58,840 --> 00:18:02,780
+السؤال هذا أحضرت انت قبل يومين risk neutral what
+
+179
+00:18:02,780 --> 00:18:06,860
+it means they don't care about riskthey .. they
+
+180
+00:18:06,860 --> 00:18:11,960
+don't consider risk بتفرجش
+
+181
+00:18:11,960 --> 00:18:17,180
+معاهم بالعربي بتفرجش معاهم تمام
+
+182
+00:18:17,180 --> 00:18:23,600
+يعني هدول الناس بالظبط زي اللي بيعطي بدون مقابل
+
+183
+00:18:23,600 --> 00:18:28,600
+مظبوط؟ في ناس مش بيعطي بدون مقابل هدول هم هدول
+
+184
+00:18:28,600 --> 00:18:31,520
+الناس لأ بس اللي على شماله على اليمين لأ بختلفوا
+
+185
+00:18:31,520 --> 00:18:36,890
+اللي على اليمين هو بتجنب مخاطرعشان أنه العقد تمعه
+
+186
+00:18:36,890 --> 00:18:40,430
+قليل، الشمال هو بتحمل مخاطر أكتر عشان ياخد عقد
+
+187
+00:18:40,430 --> 00:18:44,710
+أكتر، وحكينا أنه إحنا لما بنمشي شمال بيكون the
+
+188
+00:18:44,710 --> 00:18:52,850
+risk is for enjoyment, for إيش؟ for enjoymentفي ..
+
+189
+00:18:52,850 --> 00:18:55,930
+في .. في some people .. some investors they .. yes
+
+190
+00:18:55,930 --> 00:18:59,810
+they are enjoy when they are holding risk بتشوفهم
+
+191
+00:18:59,810 --> 00:19:02,630
+هدول طبيعي يعني في ال .. في الحياة بتشوفهم هدول
+
+192
+00:19:02,630 --> 00:19:07,810
+اللي بيجوا يعني قبل أكام يومين اللي بين .. بين ..
+
+193
+00:19:07,810 --> 00:19:11,890
+بده يخفز من مكان لمكان طبعا بيكون حياته كتير معرضة
+
+194
+00:19:11,890 --> 00:19:15,650
+للخطر فهذا هو ماخد ال risk for enjoyment
+
+195
+00:19:18,740 --> 00:19:24,880
+لما Felix .. لما Felix قفز من الفضاء risk for
+
+196
+00:19:24,880 --> 00:19:27,820
+enjoyment enjoyment عشان to prove something in his
+
+197
+00:19:27,820 --> 00:19:32,320
+mind عشان يبرهن شغلة صارت okay so this is the
+
+198
+00:19:32,320 --> 00:19:34,420
+thing some people they enjoy when they are taking
+
+199
+00:19:34,420 --> 00:19:40,760
+risk and the same thing in investments نفس الشغلة
+
+200
+00:19:40,760 --> 00:19:48,930
+بال investments okay so now the question isفي هذا
+
+201
+00:19:48,930 --> 00:19:52,290
+البرتفالي نقوم بالاستثمار في 70% نقوم بالاستثمار
+
+202
+00:19:52,290 --> 00:19:56,550
+في هذه الجزء من البرتفالي وهذه الجزء منها السؤال
+
+203
+00:19:56,550 --> 00:20:00,610
+الكبير ماهو البرتفالي الأفضل؟ البرتفالي الأفضل
+
+204
+00:20:00,610 --> 00:20:04,330
+يعتمد على استخدام الاستخدام عندما نقوم باستخدام
+
+205
+00:20:04,330 --> 00:20:11,850
+الاستخدام حسنا دعنا نغيّر مصطلح البرتفالي دعنا
+
+206
+00:20:11,850 --> 00:20:17,270
+نغيّر المصطلح إذا كان 20%إذا كانت twenty percent
+
+207
+00:20:17,270 --> 00:20:22,750
+what it means if y is twenty percent إذا كانت ال y
+
+208
+00:20:22,750 --> 00:20:33,850
+twenty percent إيش معنى الكلام if y
+
+209
+00:20:33,850 --> 00:20:39,790
+is twenty percent so
+
+210
+00:20:39,790 --> 00:20:40,670
+what this means
+
+211
+00:20:44,210 --> 00:20:48,130
+بسرعة يا بنات، بدهاش .. إذا كانت ال y .. لا بده ..
+
+212
+00:20:48,130 --> 00:20:52,030
+بده حسبة .. إذا كانت ال y عشرين في المياء، إيش
+
+213
+00:20:52,030 --> 00:20:55,290
+معناه؟ كدهش أنا مستثمر في ال one minus y؟ تمانين
+
+214
+00:20:55,290 --> 00:20:56,970
+.. تمانين .. تمانين .. تمانين .. تمانين .. تمانين
+
+215
+00:20:56,970 --> 00:20:57,430
+.. تمانين .. تمانين .. تمانين .. تمانين .. تمانين
+
+216
+00:20:57,430 --> 00:20:57,610
+.. تمانين .. تمانين .. تمانين .. تمانين .. تمانين
+
+217
+00:20:57,610 --> 00:20:57,710
+.. تمانين .. تمانين .. تمانين .. تمانين .. تمانين
+
+218
+00:20:57,710 --> 00:21:02,710
+.. تمانين .. تمانين .. تمانين .. تمانين .. تمانين
+
+219
+00:21:02,710 --> 00:21:04,050
+.. تمانين .. تمانين .. تمانين .. تمانين .. تمانين
+
+220
+00:21:04,050 --> 00:21:05,830
+.. تمانين .. تمانين .. تمانين .. تمانين .. تمانين
+
+221
+00:21:05,830 --> 00:21:12,690
+.. تمانين .. تمانين .. تمانين
+
+222
+00:21:12,690 --> 00:21:16,130
+.. تمطب لو احنا استثمرنا forty percent what it
+
+223
+00:21:16,130 --> 00:21:21,470
+means and why؟ sixty percent طب لو استثمرنا eighty
+
+224
+00:21:21,470 --> 00:21:28,350
+percent twenty وين استثمرناهم؟ في ال free risk if
+
+225
+00:21:28,350 --> 00:21:32,710
+we invest one hundred طب جداش هان بده تكون ال RC؟
+
+226
+00:21:32,710 --> 00:21:36,610
+أشوف بسرعة ال RC جداش هتكون؟
+
+227
+00:21:39,810 --> 00:21:47,210
+إذا احنا مستثمرين 100% في ال y 15% 15% and
+
+228
+00:21:47,210 --> 00:21:50,570
+in
+
+229
+00:21:50,570 --> 00:21:57,230
+all cases you calculate the you calculate sigma c
+
+230
+00:21:57,230 --> 00:22:02,810
+وerc and utility طيب مش هذا اللي احنا بدنايا لسه
+
+231
+00:22:02,810 --> 00:22:08,350
+انا طلعوا التركيبات بتتغير صح؟التركيبة بتتغير كل
+
+232
+00:22:08,350 --> 00:22:12,190
+ما انا بغير في التركيبة بتتغير ال ARC بتتغير ال
+
+233
+00:22:12,190 --> 00:22:16,830
+Sigma C و بتتغير ال utility السؤال اي واحدة في
+
+234
+00:22:16,830 --> 00:22:21,610
+هدول أحسن تركيبة which one is the best اللي بيكون
+
+235
+00:22:21,610 --> 00:22:27,030
+العائد .. خلينا ناخد إجابات لحظة شوية إيش اسمك؟
+
+236
+00:22:27,030 --> 00:22:33,770
+اسمها حكت لما يكون العائد أكتر okay كلامك صح لكن
+
+237
+00:22:33,770 --> 00:22:36,670
+في مشكلة كلامك صح تفضلي
+
+238
+00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:43,420
+مق أقل sigma طيب عائد أكتر مق أقل sigma كلام صحيح
+
+239
+00:22:43,420 --> 00:22:49,700
+بس وين هذا الكلام هيصير؟
+
+240
+00:22:49,700 --> 00:22:54,080
+حكت
+
+241
+00:22:54,080 --> 00:23:01,260
+أسماء قالت أنه عند عائد أكتر صح بس جلنا برضه في
+
+242
+00:23:01,260 --> 00:23:05,420
+مشكلة حكت هي أنه لأ عند عائد أكتر و عند مخاطر أقل
+
+243
+00:23:05,420 --> 00:23:11,670
+طبwhere .. where or when we have higher return
+
+244
+00:23:11,670 --> 00:23:17,930
+with lower risk؟ when؟ with the maximized utility
+
+245
+00:23:17,930 --> 00:23:22,090
+ايوة with this with the maximized utility
+
+246
+00:23:25,150 --> 00:23:27,250
+السؤال عندما نستطيع الحصول على الـ Maximized
+
+247
+00:23:27,250 --> 00:23:31,510
+Utility؟ احنا هنضل نجرب، بس هل هذا بظبط نضل نجرب؟
+
+248
+00:23:31,510 --> 00:23:35,070
+لأنه ممكن احنا إيش نسوي واحد يسوي okay سفر في
+
+249
+00:23:35,070 --> 00:23:39,290
+المية ممكن الخطوة البعدي هناخد واحد في المية ممكن؟
+
+250
+00:23:39,290 --> 00:23:44,230
+يعني ممكن it takes time so what we can do then to
+
+251
+00:23:44,230 --> 00:23:48,830
+estimate the maximized utility the first thing the
+
+252
+00:23:48,830 --> 00:23:55,300
+maximized utility as as you said when theutility
+
+253
+00:23:55,300 --> 00:24:01,840
+is maximized okay when the utility is maximized
+
+254
+00:24:01,840 --> 00:24:04,800
+depends on the construction or the structure of
+
+255
+00:24:04,800 --> 00:24:09,600
+the portfolio فاحنا لازم نجيب ال y لازم نجيب ال y
+
+256
+00:24:09,600 --> 00:24:16,540
+so how we can get y بحكيتها
+
+257
+00:24:20,530 --> 00:24:24,910
+قلنا إن الـ maximize utility بتعتمد على ال
+
+258
+00:24:24,910 --> 00:24:28,510
+structure of the portfolio بتعتمد على تركيب
+
+259
+00:24:28,510 --> 00:24:33,170
+المحفظة how much you invest in F and how much you
+
+260
+00:24:33,170 --> 00:24:37,590
+invest in P جداش احنا بنستثمر في F و جداش احنا
+
+261
+00:24:37,590 --> 00:24:41,690
+بنستثمر في P and we have alternatives here so we
+
+262
+00:24:41,690 --> 00:24:42,870
+need to estimate Y
+
+263
+00:24:45,540 --> 00:24:48,700
+بدنا احنا نعمل estimation لل why estimation لل why
+
+264
+00:24:48,700 --> 00:24:51,320
+it depends on the maximized utility تعتمد على
+
+265
+00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:54,400
+maximized utility so we need to estimate the
+
+266
+00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:57,940
+maximized utility pay attention here because this
+
+267
+00:24:57,940 --> 00:25:01,660
+is important I don't need you to memorize the
+
+268
+00:25:01,660 --> 00:25:08,680
+equations انا مانديش منكم تحفظوا المعادلات okay يا
+
+269
+00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:11,300
+بابا انتبهوا إيش حكيته you don't need to memorize
+
+270
+00:25:11,300 --> 00:25:16,790
+how I drive the equationsبديش منكوا تقرا فوق how I
+
+271
+00:25:16,790 --> 00:25:22,350
+drive them because it is not yoursubject how to
+
+272
+00:25:22,350 --> 00:25:26,070
+drive them يعني مش موضوعنا ان احنا to drive them
+
+273
+00:25:26,070 --> 00:25:28,930
+leave it to me because this is the .. this is
+
+274
+00:25:28,930 --> 00:25:32,530
+advanced things it is not advanced مش advanced لكن
+
+275
+00:25:32,530 --> 00:25:37,330
+هي مرتبطة بالقداش انتوا مخلصين الثانوية بنجاح
+
+276
+00:25:37,330 --> 00:25:43,290
+وقداش ماخدين رياضيات لأنه ال maximize utility لما
+
+277
+00:25:43,290 --> 00:25:46,590
+بنعمل maximize ال utility فياش بيذكركوا ال
+
+278
+00:25:46,590 --> 00:25:49,130
+maximize ال utility؟ مين أخد رياضيات؟ مين خلص
+
+279
+00:25:49,130 --> 00:25:54,970
+توجيه علمى؟كيف نعمل maximizing لل utility كيف مثلا
+
+280
+00:25:54,970 --> 00:25:59,290
+أخدت في الثانوية العامة بدنا نصل لأعلى سرعة ممكنة
+
+281
+00:25:59,290 --> 00:26:02,830
+كيف أوصل لأعلى سرعة ممكنة إيش ال tools اللي
+
+282
+00:26:02,830 --> 00:26:07,970
+بستخدمها في ال mathematics؟ الزمن بستخدم ال
+
+283
+00:26:07,970 --> 00:26:14,850
+derivatives المشتقات التفاضل وتكامل صح؟ لازم
+
+284
+00:26:14,850 --> 00:26:22,660
+نستخدم ال derivatives derivatives اسمها مشتقةتفاضل
+
+285
+00:26:22,660 --> 00:26:33,420
+وتكامل طيب خلينا نركز مع بعض هان تبقوا مع بعض so u
+
+286
+00:26:33,420 --> 00:26:43,380
+maximize u is equal to arc minus half a sigma
+
+287
+00:26:43,380 --> 00:26:50,160
+square okay مظبوط ولا لأ الكلام هذا طيب هلان ليش
+
+288
+00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:50,640
+نعوض
+
+289
+00:26:56,290 --> 00:27:03,610
+بالمحاضرة الفاتة أخدنا ال ARC هتساوي إيش؟ هتساوي
+
+290
+00:27:03,610 --> 00:27:10,430
+عندنا ال RF plus
+
+291
+00:27:10,430 --> 00:27:20,190
+Y ذكرونا R minus RF okay RB minus RF مظبوط minus
+
+292
+00:27:20,190 --> 00:27:27,510
+halfاحنا ايه سونا arc أخدناها الأول امبارح قولنا
+
+293
+00:27:27,510 --> 00:27:31,890
+arc بتساوي
+
+294
+00:27:31,890 --> 00:27:42,730
+RF plus Y RB minus RF هذا أخدناه فعوضناه انا
+
+295
+00:27:42,730 --> 00:27:47,070
+بحكيلكم مش طالبكم في ال .. بس عشان .. اذا حد
+
+296
+00:27:47,070 --> 00:27:50,290
+بيتابعنا في ال .. على الفيديو يشوف كيف احنا how we
+
+297
+00:27:50,290 --> 00:27:59,930
+drive thisso it's half a تو احنا حكينا sigma sigma
+
+298
+00:27:59,930 --> 00:28:08,550
+b ايش حكينا y بتساوي sigma c على sigma b مظبوط؟
+
+299
+00:28:08,550 --> 00:28:14,270
+قبل شوية وبالتالي بتصير half sigma a y squared
+
+300
+00:28:14,270 --> 00:28:18,410
+sigma b squared فهي
+
+301
+00:28:18,410 --> 00:28:23,600
+بتصير القانون تبعناطيب بنعمل لهذا القانون ..
+
+302
+00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:28,120
+بنعمله إيش؟ اشتقاق بالأخير بنطلع .. we want to
+
+303
+00:28:28,120 --> 00:28:35,800
+estimate Y بدنا نشوف maximize U تخافوش يا بنات اه؟
+
+304
+00:28:35,800 --> 00:28:41,020
+maximize Y depends on .. maximize U depends on Y
+
+305
+00:28:41,020 --> 00:28:48,800
+فنعمل what is Y؟ إيش التركيبة المفترة؟ Y is the
+
+306
+00:28:48,800 --> 00:28:54,750
+optimal Yأه So
+
+307
+00:28:54,750 --> 00:29:03,850
+it is equal RP minus RF divided by A Sigma Square
+
+308
+00:29:03,850 --> 00:29:13,890
+Okay اتبعوا
+
+309
+00:29:13,890 --> 00:29:19,410
+عندي انتوا بدكم ادخلكوا الاشتراك في ال .. ماشايف
+
+310
+00:29:19,410 --> 00:29:25,620
+ناس ..شايف ناس بفتو كتير قاعدين فانا .. انا بريحكم
+
+311
+00:29:25,620 --> 00:29:38,540
+ال Y ال Y بتساوي زي ما انتوا شايفين RB-RF A Sigma
+
+312
+00:29:38,540 --> 00:29:44,360
+Square P هذا
+
+313
+00:29:44,360 --> 00:29:51,140
+اللي احنا بدنا يعنى okay so Y is equalthe expected
+
+314
+00:29:51,140 --> 00:29:57,380
+return of RB RB هو بتاعة المحفظة ال risk free انا
+
+315
+00:29:57,380 --> 00:30:01,900
+مساهل عليكم و مريحكم كمان okay بالاخير we want to
+
+316
+00:30:01,900 --> 00:30:07,080
+estimate Y بدنا نعرف Y ايش هي Y طلع و هان بدنا
+
+317
+00:30:07,080 --> 00:30:13,780
+نعرف ايش ال Y اللي بتخليني احسن U احسن منفعة okay
+
+318
+00:30:13,780 --> 00:30:14,720
+طيب
+
+319
+00:30:18,850 --> 00:30:23,650
+هي ال Y اللى بتقدر من خلالها نحسب ال RB minus RF
+
+320
+00:30:23,650 --> 00:30:29,710
+divided by A عارفين ال A؟ Sigma squared B Sigma
+
+321
+00:30:29,710 --> 00:30:33,830
+squared B طبعا انتوا عارفينها ان ال B اللى هو
+
+322
+00:30:33,830 --> 00:30:36,190
+Sigma squared of the portfolio of the risky
+
+323
+00:30:36,190 --> 00:30:39,490
+portfolio you know this and this is the expected
+
+324
+00:30:39,490 --> 00:30:44,510
+return expected return of the not risk free the
+
+325
+00:30:44,510 --> 00:30:49,150
+risky portfolioand this is RF is the expected
+
+326
+00:30:49,150 --> 00:30:54,070
+return of the risk-free portfolio and this is a
+
+327
+00:30:54,070 --> 00:30:59,770
+sigma square b if you remove a إذا إحنا بنجيب a
+
+328
+00:30:59,770 --> 00:31:06,610
+تطلعه هذي بتذكركم بإيش شارب if you remove a this
+
+329
+00:31:06,610 --> 00:31:09,730
+is sharp ratio طب إيش كمان غير sharp ratio this is
+
+330
+00:31:09,730 --> 00:31:14,750
+slope as well اللي هي هي شوفوها بال .. هي slope
+
+331
+00:31:14,750 --> 00:31:15,390
+شايفينها؟
+
+332
+00:31:19,120 --> 00:31:27,740
+ARP-ARF SIGMA B This is the slope طيب اذا
+
+333
+00:31:27,740 --> 00:31:32,360
+at the end we want to know why when we know why in
+
+334
+00:31:32,360 --> 00:31:36,840
+this why we can maximize the utility عند هذه ال
+
+335
+00:31:36,840 --> 00:31:40,940
+why هتكون ال utility is maximized طبعا السؤال
+
+336
+00:31:40,940 --> 00:31:44,500
+محلول موجود كهيه ماعليكم انتوا تعيدوا حلو بس خلينا
+
+337
+00:31:44,500 --> 00:31:44,900
+نشوفه
+
+338
+00:31:51,700 --> 00:31:55,400
+طيب انا حليت جزء من ال .. من السؤال هذا السؤال
+
+339
+00:31:55,400 --> 00:32:02,500
+احفظوه زي اسمكم احفظوه زي ايش طبعا
+
+340
+00:32:02,500 --> 00:32:10,900
+هذا المثال هذا المثال اه
+
+341
+00:32:10,900 --> 00:32:17,490
+بقى صحهذا المثال example using chapter 6.4 numbers
+
+342
+00:32:17,490 --> 00:32:26,630
+يعني بترجعوا على مثال 6.4 طيب
+
+343
+00:32:26,630 --> 00:32:32,430
+هاي البيانات سبعته هاي البيانات سبعته okay بنعمله
+
+344
+00:32:32,430 --> 00:32:38,610
+بالاخير البيانات هذه بتطلعلي هذا الجواب طيب خدوا
+
+345
+00:32:38,610 --> 00:32:46,380
+دقيقة واحدة بس طبعا احنااعملنا ال .. اعملنا ال ..
+
+346
+00:32:46,380 --> 00:32:49,680
+اعملنا ال maximized ال utility بالطريقة هذه
+
+347
+00:32:49,680 --> 00:32:53,200
+العادية it takes time و قلنا بدل ما احنا to take
+
+348
+00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:56,720
+time و
+
+349
+00:32:56,720 --> 00:32:59,120
+قلنا بدل ما احنا to take time you just to
+
+350
+00:32:59,120 --> 00:33:03,700
+calculate y star بس احنا نحسب ال y star and in
+
+351
+00:33:03,700 --> 00:33:08,380
+this y star the utility is maximizedOkay look at
+
+352
+00:33:08,380 --> 00:33:11,140
+this table take two minutes three minutes in
+
+353
+00:33:11,140 --> 00:33:14,140
+looking at the table خدولكوا دقيقتين تلاتة تطلعوا
+
+354
+00:33:14,140 --> 00:33:18,500
+على ال table and just mention where is the utility
+
+355
+00:33:18,500 --> 00:33:21,900
+is maximized طلعولي ال utility where is maximized
+
+356
+00:33:21,900 --> 00:33:30,020
+كلامي واضح لأ انتوا تطلعوا دقيقة دقيقتين و jump to
+
+357
+00:33:30,020 --> 00:33:34,220
+the answer و طلعولي بالظبط وين ال utility is
+
+358
+00:33:34,220 --> 00:33:40,610
+maximizedوين أحسن utility؟ خلّي البنات الباقية
+
+359
+00:33:40,610 --> 00:33:50,470
+تطلع على ال table أحمد على ال table هان وين ال
+
+360
+00:33:50,470 --> 00:34:01,490
+utility is maximized طيب
+
+361
+00:34:01,490 --> 00:34:03,530
+سؤال هل عند ال zero
+
+362
+00:34:06,280 --> 00:34:14,760
+طيب هل عند ال .. طب مع إنه ال 15% ال return؟ طيب
+
+363
+00:34:14,760 --> 00:34:19,360
+طب ليش ماحكينا إنه هي Sigma C؟ Zero؟ إن المخاطر
+
+364
+00:34:19,360 --> 00:34:26,780
+Zero؟ أيوة، إذن where أحسن utility سعرات؟ يعني 40%
+
+365
+00:34:26,780 --> 00:34:29,460
+بصبت؟ 40%، so it's C
+
+366
+00:34:34,850 --> 00:34:38,910
+طب اعطوني second observation هاي observation انه
+
+367
+00:34:38,910 --> 00:34:42,670
+احنا لاحظنا ان ال utility is maximized تطلعوا ال
+
+368
+00:34:42,670 --> 00:34:46,810
+utility شو بيصير فيها بناها تطلعوا لو سمحتوا كانت
+
+369
+00:34:46,810 --> 00:34:51,670
+7% زادت يعني لو احنا بدنا نعملها chart ات شارت
+
+370
+00:34:51,670 --> 00:34:59,150
+زادت زادت بعدين عند ال 40% اللي كان صارت تنزل
+
+371
+00:35:02,240 --> 00:35:05,140
+تمانية خمسة تمانية تمانية تلاتة اتنين and so on
+
+372
+00:35:05,140 --> 00:35:12,740
+فاحنا بدنا نسأل وين بالظبط ال Y So
+
+373
+00:35:12,740 --> 00:35:16,800
+to estimate this instead of using the table you
+
+374
+00:35:16,800 --> 00:35:22,980
+just do Y is equal to the expected return of RP
+
+375
+00:35:22,980 --> 00:35:30,730
+minus RF divided by A sigma B squaredبدل ما احنا
+
+376
+00:35:30,730 --> 00:35:33,750
+نرفع كل هذا نحسبها و نروح بس نحسب المعادلة البسيطة
+
+377
+00:35:33,750 --> 00:35:39,670
+هاي we have RB, we have RF, we have A, we have
+
+378
+00:35:39,670 --> 00:35:45,710
+sigma B squared و A هي ماعطيكوا إياها أربعة when
+
+379
+00:35:45,710 --> 00:35:50,470
+you go home just replicate this لما ترجعوا على
+
+380
+00:35:50,470 --> 00:35:54,650
+البيت حاولوا تحلوا السؤال هذا يعني أنا ممكن أجيبكم
+
+381
+00:35:54,650 --> 00:35:57,510
+في الامتحان أمحيكم كل ال table هاد كل ال table
+
+382
+00:35:57,510 --> 00:35:57,850
+أمحي
+
+383
+00:36:00,930 --> 00:36:04,050
+عطيكوا RB وعطيكوا RF وعطيكوا A وعطيكوا Sigma B
+
+384
+00:36:04,050 --> 00:36:09,490
+وأقولكم طلعولي ال Y عند هدول النقاط طبعا أعطيتكوا
+
+385
+00:36:09,490 --> 00:36:12,890
+المعادلات الأولى تبع ال RC كيف انجاب وعطيناكوا ال
+
+386
+00:36:12,890 --> 00:36:17,170
+Sigma C كيف انجاب وعطيناكم ال Utility كيف انجاب بس
+
+387
+00:36:17,170 --> 00:36:20,050
+ارجعوا على البيت and do the table والأجبه ما هي
+
+388
+00:36:20,050 --> 00:36:25,090
+موجودة إذا في خطأ ما هيبين فهمتوا المثال؟ هذا
+
+389
+00:36:25,090 --> 00:36:28,330
+بتكونوا تحفظوه زي اسمكم طيب
+
+390
+00:36:30,460 --> 00:36:37,720
+هي ال curve شوفتي
+
+391
+00:36:37,720 --> 00:36:41,860
+هان؟ ارجع يا .. لأنه عندنا البنات ماعندهم مش كلهم
+
+392
+00:36:41,860 --> 00:36:49,820
+قالعة حاسبة okay؟ ارجعي للمثال بنات هاي
+
+393
+00:36:49,820 --> 00:36:57,740
+المثال كله موجود عندكم بس ال a اضفتلكوا إياها a
+
+394
+00:36:57,740 --> 00:37:03,050
+موجودة في المثال a is equal fourطيب جربوا كمان إذا
+
+395
+00:37:03,050 --> 00:37:14,390
+كانت ال A بتساوي 2 مثلا ممكن
+
+396
+00:37:14,390 --> 00:37:17,650
+إذا .. طبعا هترجع تستخدميها بطريقة إيش ال
+
+397
+00:37:17,650 --> 00:37:21,830
+arithmetic و ال geometric أه بس لأ هي لأن هذا
+
+398
+00:37:21,830 --> 00:37:26,570
+بيصير خطأ إذا غلطتوا فيها هتضيعوا كتير علاماتفبصير
+
+399
+00:37:26,570 --> 00:37:30,650
+خطأ متراكن فاحنا بنحاول نبعدلكم عن المواضيع دي
+
+400
+00:37:30,650 --> 00:37:39,130
+okay طيب شايفين
+
+401
+00:37:39,130 --> 00:37:42,490
+ال curve اللي أنا رسمته هو similar to this هيشوفته
+
+402
+00:37:42,490 --> 00:37:47,630
+عند ال .. عند 40% كانت أفضل .. أفضل utility the
+
+403
+00:37:47,630 --> 00:37:52,120
+best utility طبعا what you can do thenو إيش ممكن
+
+404
+00:37:52,120 --> 00:37:56,700
+تسووا كمان؟ just do with a with you with a is
+
+405
+00:37:56,700 --> 00:38:00,400
+equal to and compare with a is equal four يعني
+
+406
+00:38:00,400 --> 00:38:03,380
+جربوا إذا كانت ال a بتسووا اتنين و جربوا إذا كانت
+
+407
+00:38:03,380 --> 00:38:06,900
+ال a بتسووا four طب إيش رأيكوا؟ خليني أسألكوا سؤال
+
+408
+00:38:06,900 --> 00:38:14,060
+بسيط هيك إذا ان ال a بتسووا اتنين ال y بتزيد ولا
+
+409
+00:38:14,060 --> 00:38:20,760
+بتجلد؟ ليش بتزيد؟ كلامك صح بتزيد بس ليش؟هذا واحد
+
+410
+00:38:20,760 --> 00:38:25,880
+بس هذا from mathematical perspective from
+
+411
+00:38:25,880 --> 00:38:34,040
+investment perspective why؟ لأ عكس كلامك ايوة ال Y
+
+412
+00:38:34,040 --> 00:38:38,380
+هتزيد لإن كل ما بزيد ال Y هذه أسئلة مرات أنا بال
+
+413
+00:38:38,380 --> 00:38:42,140
+understanding بجيبها لحصل الأسئلة اللي بجيبها مش
+
+414
+00:38:42,140 --> 00:38:45,180
+just direct بتعالج إنه كده تحفظ لأ كده how you
+
+415
+00:38:45,180 --> 00:38:50,720
+understand if I increase Yإذا أنا بأعمل increase
+
+416
+00:38:50,720 --> 00:38:53,540
+لل Y معناه كلام I'm increasing the risky asset
+
+417
+00:38:53,540 --> 00:38:59,900
+مظبوط ولا لأ طيب لما ال A بتساوي 2 كل ما بتجل ال A
+
+418
+00:38:59,900 --> 00:39:04,460
+كل ما ال utility لازم تزيد so when we increase
+
+419
+00:39:04,460 --> 00:39:07,620
+utility ال Y لازم تزيد كمان يعني بدل ما احنا
+
+420
+00:39:07,620 --> 00:39:12,640
+نستثمر 40% في ال Y لأ نستثمر ممكن 60% في ال Y أو
+
+421
+00:39:12,640 --> 00:39:17,060
+70% في ال Y just be careful okay
+
+422
+00:39:21,100 --> 00:39:23,940
+عشان هيك الناس اللي بيعملوا investments smart
+
+423
+00:39:23,940 --> 00:39:29,040
+people يعني بيكونوا .. يعني .. اه لإنه بعدين بيبقى
+
+424
+00:39:29,040 --> 00:39:34,900
+وياض اه طيب
+
+425
+00:39:34,900 --> 00:39:38,400
+يعني هالكتاب اللي مانطلع ال y star لازم يكون أكبر
+
+426
+00:39:38,400 --> 00:39:49,440
+من ال y الأساسية اه في أي حالة هذه؟لأ جربيها طيب
+
+427
+00:39:49,440 --> 00:39:52,960
+أخر إشي عشان نخلص ال chapter هذا this is the end
+
+428
+00:39:52,960 --> 00:39:56,380
+of this chapter ان شاء الله on Saturday we have a
+
+429
+00:39:56,380 --> 00:40:00,000
+new chapter on the investment environment هذا أخر
+
+430
+00:40:00,000 --> 00:40:08,540
+.. تبوا طيب بعد المحاضرة passive strategies the
+
+431
+00:40:08,540 --> 00:40:11,900
+capital market line فاكرين ال passive strategies؟
+
+432
+00:40:13,140 --> 00:40:15,760
+The passive strategy avoids any direct or indirect
+
+433
+00:40:15,760 --> 00:40:18,540
+security analysis هذا كلام حكيته في chapter one
+
+434
+00:40:18,540 --> 00:40:20,620
+and chapter two when I talk about the passive
+
+435
+00:40:20,620 --> 00:40:25,360
+management with regard the active management The
+
+436
+00:40:25,360 --> 00:40:27,700
+passive strategy avoids any direct or indirect
+
+437
+00:40:27,700 --> 00:40:30,720
+security analysis, why? Because they think the
+
+438
+00:40:30,720 --> 00:40:34,360
+market is efficient and you can go to select any
+
+439
+00:40:34,360 --> 00:40:37,340
+particular stock and put it in your portfolioيعني
+
+440
+00:40:37,340 --> 00:40:39,600
+ممكن تختاروا أي asset و تحطوه في ال portfolio
+
+441
+00:40:39,600 --> 00:40:43,160
+بتاعكم supply and demand forces may make such a
+
+442
+00:40:43,160 --> 00:40:46,300
+strategy a reasonable choice for many investors
+
+443
+00:40:46,300 --> 00:40:50,560
+هذه ال strategy كويسة كتير لبعض ال investors خاصة
+
+444
+00:40:50,560 --> 00:40:53,940
+ال investors دي small investors المستثمرين الصغار
+
+445
+00:40:53,940 --> 00:40:56,940
+they don't need to waste their time in looking
+
+446
+00:40:56,940 --> 00:41:02,460
+which is the best investment but they can select
+
+447
+00:41:02,460 --> 00:41:06,660
+any particular stock from the indexOkay because
+
+448
+00:41:06,660 --> 00:41:12,220
+the market is categorize or ranking the investment
+
+449
+00:41:12,220 --> 00:41:15,720
+according to its efficiency يعني ال .. الاستثمار
+
+450
+00:41:15,720 --> 00:41:19,520
+أصلا بيرتب ال .. ال .. البيانات أو الشركات حسب ال
+
+451
+00:41:19,520 --> 00:41:23,520
+efficiency تبقيتها فمافيش حاجة أنه احنا نروح نعمل
+
+452
+00:41:23,520 --> 00:41:29,080
+تحليل لهم يعني مثلا زي مثلا شركة بتتوظف في الناس
+
+453
+00:41:29,080 --> 00:41:33,260
+ال .. او طلاب الجددالمتخرجين أجداد فبروحوش يعملوا
+
+454
+00:41:33,260 --> 00:41:35,780
+امتحانات من جديد للطلاب بيشوفوا الدرجات أفضل طلاب
+
+455
+00:41:35,780 --> 00:41:38,280
+حاططيه على درجات معينة بيروحوا بياخدوهم، so this
+
+456
+00:41:38,280 --> 00:41:43,740
+is the thing okay so a natural candidate for
+
+457
+00:41:43,740 --> 00:41:47,320
+passively held risky assets would be a well
+
+458
+00:41:47,320 --> 00:41:49,800
+diversified portfolio of common stocks such as the
+
+459
+00:41:49,800 --> 00:41:54,360
+S&P500يعني naturally بالطبيعي بدل ما انا to waste
+
+460
+00:41:54,360 --> 00:41:57,520
+my time بروح على ال indexes وهذا شرحته زمان ال
+
+461
+00:41:57,520 --> 00:42:01,520
+indexes الاستثمار في ال indexes ال indexes يعني
+
+462
+00:42:01,520 --> 00:42:07,520
+مثلا زي ال S&P500 او زي القدس مثلا في عندنا مؤشر
+
+463
+00:42:07,520 --> 00:42:13,200
+القدس تبع فلسطين زي مؤشر عمان مثلا زي مثلا مؤشر
+
+464
+00:42:13,200 --> 00:42:15,660
+Cairo and Alexandria 4100
+
+465
+00:42:18,200 --> 00:42:21,540
+في ال 4100 مثلا أقوى 100 شركة they are ranking
+
+466
+00:42:21,540 --> 00:42:24,980
+them so why you are wasting your time on looking
+
+467
+00:42:24,980 --> 00:42:29,500
+which is the best company and the index itself is
+
+468
+00:42:29,500 --> 00:42:33,640
+ranking them فأحسن استراتيجية أنه احنا نروح نستثمر
+
+469
+00:42:33,640 --> 00:42:37,540
+على مثلا عندنا القدس بدهم أفضل مثلا مجموعة شركات
+
+470
+00:42:37,540 --> 00:42:40,760
+فبتروح و بتستثمروا في أفضل الشركات okay هذه ال
+
+471
+00:42:40,760 --> 00:42:45,340
+small investors والمهم كتير يتعرفوا عليهمThe
+
+472
+00:42:45,340 --> 00:42:47,900
+capital market line is the capital allocation line
+
+473
+00:42:47,900 --> 00:42:50,660
+formed from one month's treasury bills and the
+
+474
+00:42:50,660 --> 00:42:55,800
+bond ال capital market line اللي هو هذا هذا بيسموه
+
+475
+00:42:55,800 --> 00:42:58,220
+security market line وبعض الناس بيسموه capital
+
+476
+00:42:58,220 --> 00:43:02,600
+market line خط السوق بيعمل ranking لل return و ال
+
+477
+00:43:02,600 --> 00:43:06,080
+risk فانت بدك risk عالي بتروح على العالي بدك risk
+
+478
+00:43:06,080 --> 00:43:08,960
+أقل بتروح على الأقل okay
+
+479
+00:43:12,750 --> 00:43:15,910
+والسيكورتي ماركت لاين تعمل من خلال استراتيجية
+
+480
+00:43:15,910 --> 00:43:19,530
+تتعلق بالاستثمار في بورتفاليو باسيف دي هذا
+
+481
+00:43:19,530 --> 00:43:22,650
+السيكورتي
+
+482
+00:43:22,650 --> 00:43:27,750
+ماركت لاين بيخدمنا بشغل تان، virtual risk-free
+
+483
+00:43:27,750 --> 00:43:33,980
+shots ممكن نكون محافظة استثمارية قصيرة الأجلOkay
+
+484
+00:43:33,980 --> 00:43:36,400
+or a money market funds يعني اللي بده يستثمر
+
+485
+00:43:36,400 --> 00:43:39,460
+باستثمارات قصيرة الأجر بيقدر طبعا وين هتكون؟ هتكون
+
+486
+00:43:39,460 --> 00:43:44,220
+في المنطقة هذه هنستخدم ال commercial paper اتنين a
+
+487
+00:43:44,220 --> 00:43:48,240
+fund of common stocks that mimics a broad market
+
+488
+00:43:48,240 --> 00:43:52,020
+index او ممكن نستثمر في ال long term و خاصة بال ..
+
+489
+00:43:52,020 --> 00:43:56,880
+بال .. بال stocks هيك بيكون احنا خلصنا ال .. ال
+
+490
+00:43:56,880 --> 00:43:57,420
+chapter هذا
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/kEwUOp3TXiE_raw.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/kEwUOp3TXiE_raw.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..0d3c052fcb4eb2810c5ccf87d8b62e0323e42201
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/kEwUOp3TXiE_raw.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1960 @@
+1
+00:00:22,270 --> 00:00:26,250
+بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم اليوم ان شاء الله هن ..
+
+2
+00:00:26,250 --> 00:00:29,270
+هنكمل كيف احنا نعمل construction ل portfolio
+
+3
+00:00:29,270 --> 00:00:33,870
+construction يعني نعمل بناء لمحفظة استثمارية الهدف
+
+4
+00:00:33,870 --> 00:00:38,950
+الرئيسي عشان احنا نبني محفظة استثمارية اتذكر دائما
+
+5
+00:00:38,950 --> 00:00:44,730
+the main objective of building a particular
+
+6
+00:00:44,730 --> 00:00:50,080
+portfolio is increase returnو Decrease Risk OK هذا
+
+7
+00:00:50,080 --> 00:01:00,800
+ما اقوله عندما نصنع Portfolio فقط انظر هنا اعادة و
+
+8
+00:01:00,800 --> 00:01:04,020
+Decrease
+
+9
+00:01:04,020 --> 00:01:15,180
+Risk من نظر الاستثمار ما يعنيه؟ يعنيthat once we
+
+10
+00:01:15,180 --> 00:01:20,540
+increase return and decrease risk we maximize the
+
+11
+00:01:20,540 --> 00:01:30,980
+utility نحنا
+
+12
+00:01:30,980 --> 00:01:37,740
+بنعظم السرعة at the end when we increase return
+
+13
+00:01:37,740 --> 00:01:41,040
+and decrease risk we maximize the utility
+
+14
+00:01:44,380 --> 00:01:50,740
+Okay so my question today how we maximize the
+
+15
+00:01:50,740 --> 00:01:56,020
+utility كيف احنا ممكن نعظم المنفع okay and our
+
+16
+00:01:56,020 --> 00:02:02,720
+focus today is only on this particular subject on
+
+17
+00:02:02,720 --> 00:02:06,300
+maximizing the utility because investors not only
+
+18
+00:02:06,300 --> 00:02:10,930
+looking at the returnأو الـ Risk، ولكن إما أنهم
+
+19
+00:02:10,930 --> 00:02:13,810
+ينظروا إلى كلا البعض Risk و Return في الوقت نفسه.
+
+20
+00:02:14,930 --> 00:02:22,190
+لذلك كما قلنا، الوثيقة هي إيقاط الوصول الى الـ
+
+21
+00:02:22,190 --> 00:02:26,290
+Return المتوقع مناسبة
+
+22
+00:02:26,290 --> 00:02:36,150
+نصف A سجن المساعدة، فقط لأذكركم في الوثيقةيعني زي
+
+23
+00:02:36,150 --> 00:02:38,690
+ما احنا حكينا ال utility بتساوي ال expected return
+
+24
+00:02:38,690 --> 00:02:43,550
+of the particular portfolio okay minus half of a,
+
+25
+00:02:43,670 --> 00:02:50,490
+a is risk aversion and sigma square let's take
+
+26
+00:02:50,490 --> 00:02:54,770
+this example to see the importance of utility ناخد
+
+27
+00:02:54,770 --> 00:02:56,430
+مثال عشان نشوف أهمية ال utility
+
+28
+00:03:01,300 --> 00:03:04,120
+as .. as I mentioned in the previous meeting زي ما
+
+29
+00:03:04,120 --> 00:03:08,700
+أنا حكيت في ال previous meeting الفات حكينا إنه
+
+30
+00:03:08,700 --> 00:03:13,160
+إذا إحنا بنعمل portfolio يعني I just am
+
+31
+00:03:13,160 --> 00:03:15,980
+summarizing what I said to integrate you with the
+
+32
+00:03:15,980 --> 00:03:18,540
+.. with the subject today يعني أنا قاعد برجعلكم
+
+33
+00:03:18,540 --> 00:03:22,120
+الكلام اللي حكيته أول عشان نحطكم بالصورة تبعت
+
+34
+00:03:22,120 --> 00:03:28,040
+اليوم for instance if we have this portfolio يعني
+
+35
+00:03:28,040 --> 00:03:34,210
+واحد مع مثلا one thousand dollarاستثمار جزء من
+
+36
+00:03:34,210 --> 00:03:50,330
+1000 دولار في مصادر رخيصة ورخيص حر ورخيص
+
+37
+00:03:50,330 --> 00:03:57,570
+حر دعونا نعرف المصادر الرخيصة ك P ورخيص حر ك F
+
+38
+00:04:02,310 --> 00:04:09,510
+بعد ذلك نستخدم مصالحنا الـ 1000$ كم نستخدمه في F و
+
+39
+00:04:09,510 --> 00:04:15,990
+كم نستخدمه في B هذا يعني الشخصية اللي استخدمها في
+
+40
+00:04:15,990 --> 00:04:21,950
+F و الشخصية اللي استخدمها في B الشخصية اللي
+
+41
+00:04:21,950 --> 00:04:27,690
+استخدمها في B نسميها Y و الشخصية اللي استخدمها في
+
+42
+00:04:27,690 --> 00:04:36,080
+F هي 1-Yمثلًا إذا قمنا بالاستثمار في 70% من الـ Y
+
+43
+00:04:36,080 --> 00:04:49,300
+فهذا يعني أن الباقية هي 30% من 1-Y حتى
+
+44
+00:04:49,300 --> 00:04:57,660
+اللحظة التي أقولها إذا كنت ترغب في تخطيط إعادة
+
+45
+00:04:57,660 --> 00:05:02,040
+بورتفاليو تماملذلك إذا كنت أردت تخطيط إعادة
+
+46
+00:05:02,040 --> 00:05:06,100
+البرتفالي المكتمل C هو مصطلح البرتفالي المكتمل،
+
+47
+00:05:06,100 --> 00:05:13,940
+فهو يعني Y بRb
+
+48
+00:05:13,940 --> 00:05:23,900
+plus 1 minus Y times Rf، هل هذا صحيح؟ على سبيل
+
+49
+00:05:23,900 --> 00:05:35,600
+المثال، إذا ف7%وإذا عدد عدد عدد P هو 15% فرصة
+
+50
+00:05:35,600 --> 00:05:51,980
+Rc هي 70% X 15% Plus 1-Y هو 30% X 7% فهو
+
+51
+00:05:51,980 --> 00:06:03,070
+بسيط جدا فإن عدد عدد عدد PortfolioY times RP plus
+
+52
+00:06:03,070 --> 00:06:08,070
+one minus Y times RF return of the free risk and
+
+53
+00:06:08,070 --> 00:06:15,090
+the return of the risky portfolio okay so we don't
+
+54
+00:06:15,090 --> 00:06:19,770
+have problem now okay so this is we talk about RC
+
+55
+00:06:19,770 --> 00:06:26,230
+we talk about RCدعونا نتكلم عن فرصة هذا
+
+56
+00:06:26,230 --> 00:06:36,890
+البرتفاليون سيجما C سيجما C سيجما C هو في نفس
+
+57
+00:06:36,890 --> 00:06:45,890
+الطريقة سيجما C هو يقل دعونا نقول Y سيجما B plus 1
+
+58
+00:06:45,890 --> 00:06:52,330
+minus Y سيجما F هل هذا صحيح؟
+
+59
+00:06:55,020 --> 00:07:06,840
+إذا كنا نعرف أن صفر F يقل 0 إذا صفر F يقل 0، فصفر
+
+60
+00:07:06,840 --> 00:07:10,580
+C يقل
+
+61
+00:07:10,580 --> 00:07:22,440
+Y بصفر B إذا كنا نريد أن نقدم Y، فصفر Y يقل صفر C
+
+62
+00:07:22,440 --> 00:07:24,040
+بصفر B
+
+63
+00:07:29,860 --> 00:07:37,460
+Okay it is very simple any questions so far حكينا
+
+64
+00:07:37,460 --> 00:07:44,940
+احنا we have a portfolio with 1000$ محفظة ألف
+
+65
+00:07:44,940 --> 00:07:52,480
+دولار we divided the portfolio into two parts يعني
+
+66
+00:07:52,480 --> 00:07:58,100
+استثمرنا في في risk assets سميناها Pوفي risk-free
+
+67
+00:07:58,100 --> 00:08:03,420
+assets سمنها F okay so if we consider that we
+
+68
+00:08:03,420 --> 00:08:08,280
+invest 70 percent portion which is Y, Y هي الوزن
+
+69
+00:08:08,280 --> 00:08:13,640
+so one minus Y is equal to 30 percent يعني سبعين
+
+70
+00:08:13,640 --> 00:08:15,880
+في المية زائد تلاتين في المية one hundred percent
+
+71
+00:08:15,880 --> 00:08:22,880
+okay now if you want to calculate the RC what it
+
+72
+00:08:22,880 --> 00:08:27,740
+means RC it meansوالعادة لـ Complete Portfolio
+
+73
+00:08:27,740 --> 00:08:32,020
+ماذا يعني Complete Portfolio؟ Portfolio يحتوي على
+
+74
+00:08:32,020 --> 00:08:33,820
+أساتذة خطرية و أساتذة خلطة خلطة خلطة خلطة خلطة
+
+75
+00:08:33,820 --> 00:08:45,480
+خلطة خلطة خلطة خلطة خلطة خلطة
+
+76
+00:08:45,910 --> 00:08:52,370
+الأسد المخاطر مرة واحدة مقاومة الاسد المخاطر YRP
+
+77
+00:08:52,370 --> 00:08:59,090
+plus one minus Y times RF ثم النتائج RC هي فقط
+
+78
+00:08:59,090 --> 00:09:05,310
+تفعل الأشياء المثالية الآن ننتهي من عملية الترجمة
+
+79
+00:09:05,310 --> 00:09:12,380
+للعودة لـ Sigma Cit is in the same way we do this
+
+80
+00:09:12,380 --> 00:09:18,740
+y sigma b plus one minus y sigma f but be careful
+
+81
+00:09:18,740 --> 00:09:24,160
+here انتبهوا يعني because this is we assume in
+
+82
+00:09:24,160 --> 00:09:29,560
+this problem we assume that we ignore the
+
+83
+00:09:29,560 --> 00:09:34,000
+correlation between between the free assets and
+
+84
+00:09:34,000 --> 00:09:38,360
+risky assets يعني احنا اتجاهلنا اي ارتباط بيناتهم
+
+85
+00:09:39,440 --> 00:09:46,380
+لأنه في الشباتر القادمة if there is a correlation
+
+86
+00:09:46,380 --> 00:09:49,640
+so we have to change the structure of this
+
+87
+00:09:49,640 --> 00:09:53,800
+equation لازم نغير ال structure تبعتنا ال equation
+
+88
+00:09:53,800 --> 00:10:01,260
+تبعتنا okay okay so now why we are estimating the
+
+89
+00:10:01,260 --> 00:10:04,840
+portfolio as as I said the the main important
+
+90
+00:10:04,840 --> 00:10:11,210
+things isلإزالة المستقبل و لإنقاذ المخاطر بطريقة
+
+91
+00:10:11,210 --> 00:10:14,950
+مختلفة بكلمة مختلفة بكلمة مختلفة بكلمة مختلفة
+
+92
+00:10:14,950 --> 00:10:16,730
+بكلمة مختلفة بكلمة مختلفة بكلمة مختلفة بكلمة
+
+93
+00:10:16,730 --> 00:10:16,750
+مختلفة بكلمة مختلفة بكلمة مختلفة بكلمة مختلفة
+
+94
+00:10:16,750 --> 00:10:17,430
+بكلمة مختلفة بكلمة مختلفة بكلمة مختلفة بكلمة
+
+95
+00:10:17,430 --> 00:10:18,710
+مختلفة بكلمة مختلفة بكلمة مختلفة بكلمة مختلفة
+
+96
+00:10:18,710 --> 00:10:18,770
+بكلمة مختلفة بكلمة مختلفة بكلمة مختلفة بكلمة
+
+97
+00:10:18,770 --> 00:10:21,890
+مختلفة بكلمة مختلفة
+
+98
+00:10:21,890 --> 00:10:26,050
+بكلمة
+
+99
+00:10:26,050 --> 00:10:33,070
+مختلفة بكلمة مختلفة بكلمة م
+
+100
+00:10:35,420 --> 00:10:37,840
+How we can maximize you?
+
+101
+00:10:41,060 --> 00:10:44,220
+Maximizing you depends on the structure of our
+
+102
+00:10:44,220 --> 00:10:49,740
+portfolio Maximizing you depends on the structure
+
+103
+00:10:49,740 --> 00:10:55,920
+of our portfolio It means how much we invest in
+
+104
+00:10:55,920 --> 00:10:59,340
+risky assets and how much we invest in risky free
+
+105
+00:10:59,340 --> 00:11:06,680
+assetsOkay. So it's .. So as I said if this is the
+
+106
+00:11:06,680 --> 00:11:11,080
+F and you know what it means F and this is B and
+
+107
+00:11:11,080 --> 00:11:15,280
+you know what it means B. Just to remind you F is
+
+108
+00:11:15,280 --> 00:11:19,940
+the risky free assets and B is the risky assets.
+
+109
+00:11:20,820 --> 00:11:24,120
+The big question is how much we invest in F and
+
+110
+00:11:24,120 --> 00:11:26,960
+how much we invest in B. Let's for instance take
+
+111
+00:11:26,960 --> 00:11:30,570
+this example here.you know what it means why now
+
+112
+00:11:30,570 --> 00:11:37,610
+no why be careful why so this is why this is the
+
+113
+00:11:37,610 --> 00:11:43,710
+expected return of RC this is the sigma C this is
+
+114
+00:11:43,710 --> 00:11:47,370
+the utility okay
+
+115
+00:11:47,370 --> 00:11:51,030
+you know what it means why
+
+116
+00:11:58,630 --> 00:12:04,290
+عطيني جملة كاملة what it means what it means why
+
+117
+00:12:04,290 --> 00:12:15,890
+انا
+
+118
+00:12:15,890 --> 00:12:21,270
+very very strictly with what you said لان this is
+
+119
+00:12:21,270 --> 00:12:26,850
+investment هذا استثمار و careful when you answer
+
+120
+00:12:26,850 --> 00:12:32,010
+the questionما يعنيه ويه؟ يعني انها مجزرة من
+
+121
+00:12:32,010 --> 00:12:36,030
+الاستثمار من أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار
+
+122
+00:12:36,030 --> 00:12:36,690
+أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار
+
+123
+00:12:36,690 --> 00:12:40,570
+أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار
+
+124
+00:12:40,570 --> 00:12:41,530
+أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار
+
+125
+00:12:41,530 --> 00:12:42,250
+أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار
+
+126
+00:12:42,250 --> 00:12:43,510
+أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار
+
+127
+00:12:43,510 --> 00:12:51,090
+أسعار أسعار أسعار أسعار
+
+128
+00:12:51,090 --> 00:12:54,910
+أ
+
+129
+00:12:57,040 --> 00:13:04,840
+Okay Now if you invest in Y So Zero Explain it to
+
+130
+00:13:04,840 --> 00:13:12,740
+me what it means if Zero if Y equals Zero So
+
+131
+00:13:12,740 --> 00:13:19,900
+how much the expected return of RC كم؟
+
+132
+00:13:19,900 --> 00:13:23,460
+Seven Yes Seven Seven percent
+
+133
+00:13:27,870 --> 00:13:33,430
+أذا ماهو سيجما C؟ Zero ماذا هو الوثيقة؟ الوثيقة
+
+134
+00:13:33,430 --> 00:13:38,210
+أنك تحتاج إعلان إضافي إذا كنت تعرف الوثيقة تحتاج A
+
+135
+00:13:38,210 --> 00:13:45,950
+لأن الوثيقة هي عملية عودة توقع A مناسبة نصف سيجما
+
+136
+00:13:45,950 --> 00:13:52,710
+أو نصف A سيجما المساواة إذا كنت تعرف أن A هو اكتر
+
+137
+00:13:52,710 --> 00:13:57,920
+من 4، فتطبيق الوثيقةبس طبق المعادلة you will find
+
+138
+00:13:57,920 --> 00:14:10,140
+you شو ايه؟ what it means أيه؟
+
+139
+00:14:10,140 --> 00:14:14,080
+اه
+
+140
+00:14:14,080 --> 00:14:17,140
+اه so what is أيه؟ what it means أيه؟
+
+141
+00:14:24,390 --> 00:14:28,650
+Okay if .. if you have higher A what it means؟
+
+142
+00:14:28,650 --> 00:14:33,270
+دلوقت
+
+143
+00:14:33,270 --> 00:14:37,430
+الجانب هذا if you have higher A what it means؟ we
+
+144
+00:14:37,430 --> 00:14:42,330
+know this but if we have higher A if you have
+
+145
+00:14:42,330 --> 00:14:45,190
+higher A you are more prefer risk or less prefer
+
+146
+00:14:45,190 --> 00:14:49,430
+risk? less prefer risk if you have .. if you have
+
+147
+00:14:49,430 --> 00:14:53,440
+lower Aإذا كان عندكم lower a what it means؟ higher
+
+148
+00:14:53,440 --> 00:14:59,880
+risk okay just just be careful here if a because
+
+149
+00:14:59,880 --> 00:15:03,940
+now we have some some people they don't understand
+
+150
+00:15:03,940 --> 00:15:13,840
+what exactly mean a so a is located a
+
+151
+00:15:13,840 --> 00:15:26,120
+sometimes equal zeroA أكبر من 0 A أقل من 0 إذا
+
+152
+00:15:26,120 --> 00:15:36,140
+كان A أقل من 0 نسمي هذا الشخص ريسكا نيوترال ريسكا
+
+153
+00:15:36,140 --> 00:15:44,000
+نيوترال ما يعنيه ريسكا نيوترالpeople with a equal
+
+154
+00:15:44,000 --> 00:15:48,320
+zero it means they don't need compensation for a
+
+155
+00:15:48,320 --> 00:15:52,540
+particular risk but if people with a greater than
+
+156
+00:15:52,540 --> 00:15:59,600
+zero it's people become more risk aversion if
+
+157
+00:15:59,600 --> 00:16:06,040
+people with a less than zero it means okay if a
+
+158
+00:16:06,040 --> 00:16:11,340
+less than zero اذا كانت ال a أقل من zero بتكون
+
+159
+00:16:14,170 --> 00:16:21,310
+لأ بيكون هدول risk lovers طيب هدول risk neutral
+
+160
+00:16:21,310 --> 00:16:25,250
+هدول
+
+161
+00:16:25,250 --> 00:16:33,210
+risk aversion وهدول
+
+162
+00:16:33,210 --> 00:16:38,770
+risk lovers risk
+
+163
+00:16:38,770 --> 00:16:42,630
+lovers خليني أشوف طلعوا على الخط العداد هنا
+
+164
+00:16:45,770 --> 00:16:52,370
+بس انتبهوا هن، هتفهميها هن، إذا كان هن zero، بيكون
+
+165
+00:16:52,370 --> 00:16:55,970
+ال neutral هن
+
+166
+00:16:55,970 --> 00:17:00,690
+هيك أشمال إيش أقل من zero ولا أكبر من zero؟ أقل من
+
+167
+00:17:00,690 --> 00:17:04,770
+zero إذا أقل من zero هن الناس إيش بيكونوا؟ risk
+
+168
+00:17:04,770 --> 00:17:10,530
+lovers طب إذا كانت أكتر من zero risk aversion
+
+169
+00:17:13,340 --> 00:17:17,200
+كل ما بنبتعد عن ال zero when we go from left to
+
+170
+00:17:17,200 --> 00:17:22,940
+right it means we become more risk aversion when
+
+171
+00:17:22,940 --> 00:17:27,420
+we are closing to zero and passing the zero to the
+
+172
+00:17:27,420 --> 00:17:33,140
+left become more risk lovers يعني احنا بنكون اكثر
+
+173
+00:17:33,140 --> 00:17:38,320
+بنحب المخاطر تمام؟ هذه ال aو أعتقد أني قبل
+
+174
+00:17:38,320 --> 00:17:43,780
+محاضرتين أحطيتكم what it means ايه، مظبوط ولا لأ؟
+
+175
+00:17:43,780 --> 00:17:49,580
+و أعطينا more explanation about this okay so now a
+
+176
+00:17:49,580 --> 00:17:54,620
+it means clear now risk
+
+177
+00:17:54,620 --> 00:17:58,840
+neutral يعني they don't care about risk مش سألنا
+
+178
+00:17:58,840 --> 00:18:02,780
+السؤال هذا أحضرت انت قبل يومين risk neutral what
+
+179
+00:18:02,780 --> 00:18:06,860
+it means they don't care about riskthey .. they
+
+180
+00:18:06,860 --> 00:18:11,960
+don't consider risk بتفرجش
+
+181
+00:18:11,960 --> 00:18:17,180
+معاهم بالعربي بتفرجش معاهم تمام
+
+182
+00:18:17,180 --> 00:18:23,600
+يعني هدول الناس بالظبط زي اللي بيعطي بدون مقابل
+
+183
+00:18:23,600 --> 00:18:28,600
+مظبوط؟ في ناس مش بيعطي بدون مقابل هدول هم هدول
+
+184
+00:18:28,600 --> 00:18:31,520
+الناس لأ بس اللي على شماله على اليمين لأ بختلفوا
+
+185
+00:18:31,520 --> 00:18:36,890
+اللي على اليمين هو بتجنب مخاطرعشان أنه العقد تمعه
+
+186
+00:18:36,890 --> 00:18:40,430
+قليل، الشمال هو بتحمل مخاطر أكتر عشان ياخد عقد
+
+187
+00:18:40,430 --> 00:18:44,710
+أكتر، وحكينا أنه إحنا لما بنمشي شمال بيكون the
+
+188
+00:18:44,710 --> 00:18:52,850
+risk is for enjoyment, for إيش؟ for enjoymentفي ..
+
+189
+00:18:52,850 --> 00:18:55,930
+في .. في some people .. some investors they .. yes
+
+190
+00:18:55,930 --> 00:18:59,810
+they are enjoy when they are holding risk بتشوفهم
+
+191
+00:18:59,810 --> 00:19:02,630
+هدول طبيعي يعني في ال .. في الحياة بتشوفهم هدول
+
+192
+00:19:02,630 --> 00:19:07,810
+اللي بيجوا يعني قبل أكام يومين اللي بين .. بين ..
+
+193
+00:19:07,810 --> 00:19:11,890
+بده يخفز من مكان لمكان طبعا بيكون حياته كتير معرضة
+
+194
+00:19:11,890 --> 00:19:15,650
+للخطر فهذا هو ماخد ال risk for enjoyment
+
+195
+00:19:18,740 --> 00:19:24,880
+لما Felix .. لما Felix قفز من الفضاء risk for
+
+196
+00:19:24,880 --> 00:19:27,820
+enjoyment enjoyment عشان to prove something in his
+
+197
+00:19:27,820 --> 00:19:32,320
+mind عشان يبرهن شغلة صارت okay so this is the
+
+198
+00:19:32,320 --> 00:19:34,420
+thing some people they enjoy when they are taking
+
+199
+00:19:34,420 --> 00:19:40,760
+risk and the same thing in investments نفس الشغلة
+
+200
+00:19:40,760 --> 00:19:48,930
+بال investments okay so now the question isفي هذا
+
+201
+00:19:48,930 --> 00:19:52,290
+البرتفالي نقوم بالاستثمار في 70% نقوم بالاستثمار
+
+202
+00:19:52,290 --> 00:19:56,550
+في هذه الجزء من البرتفالي وهذه الجزء منها السؤال
+
+203
+00:19:56,550 --> 00:20:00,610
+الكبير ماهو البرتفالي الأفضل؟ البرتفالي الأفضل
+
+204
+00:20:00,610 --> 00:20:04,330
+يعتمد على استخدام الاستخدام عندما نقوم باستخدام
+
+205
+00:20:04,330 --> 00:20:11,850
+الاستخدام حسنا دعنا نغيّر مصطلح البرتفالي دعنا
+
+206
+00:20:11,850 --> 00:20:17,270
+نغيّر المصطلح إذا كان 20%إذا كانت twenty percent
+
+207
+00:20:17,270 --> 00:20:22,750
+what it means if y is twenty percent إذا كانت ال y
+
+208
+00:20:22,750 --> 00:20:33,850
+twenty percent إيش معنى الكلام if y
+
+209
+00:20:33,850 --> 00:20:39,790
+is twenty percent so
+
+210
+00:20:39,790 --> 00:20:40,670
+what this means
+
+211
+00:20:44,210 --> 00:20:48,130
+بسرعة يا بنات، بدهاش .. إذا كانت ال y .. لا بده ..
+
+212
+00:20:48,130 --> 00:20:52,030
+بده حسبة .. إذا كانت ال y عشرين في المياء، إيش
+
+213
+00:20:52,030 --> 00:20:55,290
+معناه؟ كدهش أنا مستثمر في ال one minus y؟ تمانين
+
+214
+00:20:55,290 --> 00:20:56,970
+.. تمانين .. تمانين .. تمانين .. تمانين .. تمانين
+
+215
+00:20:56,970 --> 00:20:57,430
+.. تمانين .. تمانين .. تمانين .. تمانين .. تمانين
+
+216
+00:20:57,430 --> 00:20:57,610
+.. تمانين .. تمانين .. تمانين .. تمانين .. تمانين
+
+217
+00:20:57,610 --> 00:20:57,710
+.. تمانين .. تمانين .. تمانين .. تمانين .. تمانين
+
+218
+00:20:57,710 --> 00:21:02,710
+.. تمانين .. تمانين .. تمانين .. تمانين .. تمانين
+
+219
+00:21:02,710 --> 00:21:04,050
+.. تمانين .. تمانين .. تمانين .. تمانين .. تمانين
+
+220
+00:21:04,050 --> 00:21:05,830
+.. تمانين .. تمانين .. تمانين .. تمانين .. تمانين
+
+221
+00:21:05,830 --> 00:21:12,690
+.. تمانين .. تمانين .. تمانين
+
+222
+00:21:12,690 --> 00:21:16,130
+.. تمطب لو احنا استثمرنا forty percent what it
+
+223
+00:21:16,130 --> 00:21:21,470
+means and why؟ sixty percent طب لو استثمرنا eighty
+
+224
+00:21:21,470 --> 00:21:28,350
+percent twenty وين استثمرناهم؟ في ال free risk if
+
+225
+00:21:28,350 --> 00:21:32,710
+we invest one hundred طب جداش هان بده تكون ال RC؟
+
+226
+00:21:32,710 --> 00:21:36,610
+أشوف بسرعة ال RC جداش هتكون؟
+
+227
+00:21:39,810 --> 00:21:47,210
+إذا احنا مستثمرين 100% في ال y 15% 15% and
+
+228
+00:21:47,210 --> 00:21:50,570
+in
+
+229
+00:21:50,570 --> 00:21:57,230
+all cases you calculate the you calculate sigma c
+
+230
+00:21:57,230 --> 00:22:02,810
+وerc and utility طيب مش هذا اللي احنا بدنايا لسه
+
+231
+00:22:02,810 --> 00:22:08,350
+انا طلعوا التركيبات بتتغير صح؟التركيبة بتتغير كل
+
+232
+00:22:08,350 --> 00:22:12,190
+ما انا بغير في التركيبة بتتغير ال ARC بتتغير ال
+
+233
+00:22:12,190 --> 00:22:16,830
+Sigma C و بتتغير ال utility السؤال اي واحدة في
+
+234
+00:22:16,830 --> 00:22:21,610
+هدول أحسن تركيبة which one is the best اللي بيكون
+
+235
+00:22:21,610 --> 00:22:27,030
+العائد .. خلينا ناخد إجابات لحظة شوية إيش اسمك؟
+
+236
+00:22:27,030 --> 00:22:33,770
+اسمها حكت لما يكون العائد أكتر okay كلامك صح لكن
+
+237
+00:22:33,770 --> 00:22:36,670
+في مشكلة كلامك صح تفضلي
+
+238
+00:22:39,200 --> 00:22:43,420
+مق أقل sigma طيب عائد أكتر مق أقل sigma كلام صحيح
+
+239
+00:22:43,420 --> 00:22:49,700
+بس وين هذا الكلام هيصير؟
+
+240
+00:22:49,700 --> 00:22:54,080
+حكت
+
+241
+00:22:54,080 --> 00:23:01,260
+أسماء قالت أنه عند عائد أكتر صح بس جلنا برضه في
+
+242
+00:23:01,260 --> 00:23:05,420
+مشكلة حكت هي أنه لأ عند عائد أكتر و عند مخاطر أقل
+
+243
+00:23:05,420 --> 00:23:11,670
+طبwhere .. where or when we have higher return
+
+244
+00:23:11,670 --> 00:23:17,930
+with lower risk؟ when؟ with the maximized utility
+
+245
+00:23:17,930 --> 00:23:22,090
+ايوة with this with the maximized utility
+
+246
+00:23:25,150 --> 00:23:27,250
+السؤال عندما نستطيع الحصول على الـ Maximized
+
+247
+00:23:27,250 --> 00:23:31,510
+Utility؟ احنا هنضل نجرب، بس هل هذا بظبط نضل نجرب؟
+
+248
+00:23:31,510 --> 00:23:35,070
+لأنه ممكن احنا إيش نسوي واحد يسوي okay سفر في
+
+249
+00:23:35,070 --> 00:23:39,290
+المية ممكن الخطوة البعدي هناخد واحد في المية ممكن؟
+
+250
+00:23:39,290 --> 00:23:44,230
+يعني ممكن it takes time so what we can do then to
+
+251
+00:23:44,230 --> 00:23:48,830
+estimate the maximized utility the first thing the
+
+252
+00:23:48,830 --> 00:23:55,300
+maximized utility as as you said when theutility
+
+253
+00:23:55,300 --> 00:24:01,840
+is maximized okay when the utility is maximized
+
+254
+00:24:01,840 --> 00:24:04,800
+depends on the construction or the structure of
+
+255
+00:24:04,800 --> 00:24:09,600
+the portfolio فاحنا لازم نجيب ال y لازم نجيب ال y
+
+256
+00:24:09,600 --> 00:24:16,540
+so how we can get y بحكيتها
+
+257
+00:24:20,530 --> 00:24:24,910
+قلنا إن الـ maximize utility بتعتمد على ال
+
+258
+00:24:24,910 --> 00:24:28,510
+structure of the portfolio بتعتمد على تركيب
+
+259
+00:24:28,510 --> 00:24:33,170
+المحفظة how much you invest in F and how much you
+
+260
+00:24:33,170 --> 00:24:37,590
+invest in P جداش احنا بنستثمر في F و جداش احنا
+
+261
+00:24:37,590 --> 00:24:41,690
+بنستثمر في P and we have alternatives here so we
+
+262
+00:24:41,690 --> 00:24:42,870
+need to estimate Y
+
+263
+00:24:45,540 --> 00:24:48,700
+بدنا احنا نعمل estimation لل why estimation لل why
+
+264
+00:24:48,700 --> 00:24:51,320
+it depends on the maximized utility تعتمد على
+
+265
+00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:54,400
+maximized utility so we need to estimate the
+
+266
+00:24:54,400 --> 00:24:57,940
+maximized utility pay attention here because this
+
+267
+00:24:57,940 --> 00:25:01,660
+is important I don't need you to memorize the
+
+268
+00:25:01,660 --> 00:25:08,680
+equations انا مانديش منكم تحفظوا المعادلات okay يا
+
+269
+00:25:08,680 --> 00:25:11,300
+بابا انتبهوا إيش حكيته you don't need to memorize
+
+270
+00:25:11,300 --> 00:25:16,790
+how I drive the equationsبديش منكوا تقرا فوق how I
+
+271
+00:25:16,790 --> 00:25:22,350
+drive them because it is not yoursubject how to
+
+272
+00:25:22,350 --> 00:25:26,070
+drive them يعني مش موضوعنا ان احنا to drive them
+
+273
+00:25:26,070 --> 00:25:28,930
+leave it to me because this is the .. this is
+
+274
+00:25:28,930 --> 00:25:32,530
+advanced things it is not advanced مش advanced لكن
+
+275
+00:25:32,530 --> 00:25:37,330
+هي مرتبطة بالقداش انتوا مخلصين الثانوية بنجاح
+
+276
+00:25:37,330 --> 00:25:43,290
+وقداش ماخدين رياضيات لأنه ال maximize utility لما
+
+277
+00:25:43,290 --> 00:25:46,590
+بنعمل maximize ال utility فياش بيذكركوا ال
+
+278
+00:25:46,590 --> 00:25:49,130
+maximize ال utility؟ مين أخد رياضيات؟ مين خلص
+
+279
+00:25:49,130 --> 00:25:54,970
+توجيه علمى؟كيف نعمل maximizing لل utility كيف مثلا
+
+280
+00:25:54,970 --> 00:25:59,290
+أخدت في الثانوية العامة بدنا نصل لأعلى سرعة ممكنة
+
+281
+00:25:59,290 --> 00:26:02,830
+كيف أوصل لأعلى سرعة ممكنة إيش ال tools اللي
+
+282
+00:26:02,830 --> 00:26:07,970
+بستخدمها في ال mathematics؟ الزمن بستخدم ال
+
+283
+00:26:07,970 --> 00:26:14,850
+derivatives المشتقات التفاضل وتكامل صح؟ لازم
+
+284
+00:26:14,850 --> 00:26:22,660
+نستخدم ال derivatives derivatives اسمها مشتقةتفاضل
+
+285
+00:26:22,660 --> 00:26:33,420
+وتكامل طيب خلينا نركز مع بعض هان تبقوا مع بعض so u
+
+286
+00:26:33,420 --> 00:26:43,380
+maximize u is equal to arc minus half a sigma
+
+287
+00:26:43,380 --> 00:26:50,160
+square okay مظبوط ولا لأ الكلام هذا طيب هلان ليش
+
+288
+00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:50,640
+نعوض
+
+289
+00:26:56,290 --> 00:27:03,610
+بالمحاضرة الفاتة أخدنا ال ARC هتساوي إيش؟ هتساوي
+
+290
+00:27:03,610 --> 00:27:10,430
+عندنا ال RF plus
+
+291
+00:27:10,430 --> 00:27:20,190
+Y ذكرونا R minus RF okay RB minus RF مظبوط minus
+
+292
+00:27:20,190 --> 00:27:27,510
+halfاحنا ايه سونا arc أخدناها الأول امبارح قولنا
+
+293
+00:27:27,510 --> 00:27:31,890
+arc بتساوي
+
+294
+00:27:31,890 --> 00:27:42,730
+RF plus Y RB minus RF هذا أخدناه فعوضناه انا
+
+295
+00:27:42,730 --> 00:27:47,070
+بحكيلكم مش طالبكم في ال .. بس عشان .. اذا حد
+
+296
+00:27:47,070 --> 00:27:50,290
+بيتابعنا في ال .. على الفيديو يشوف كيف احنا how we
+
+297
+00:27:50,290 --> 00:27:59,930
+drive thisso it's half a تو احنا حكينا sigma sigma
+
+298
+00:27:59,930 --> 00:28:08,550
+b ايش حكينا y بتساوي sigma c على sigma b مظبوط؟
+
+299
+00:28:08,550 --> 00:28:14,270
+قبل شوية وبالتالي بتصير half sigma a y squared
+
+300
+00:28:14,270 --> 00:28:18,410
+sigma b squared فهي
+
+301
+00:28:18,410 --> 00:28:23,600
+بتصير القانون تبعناطيب بنعمل لهذا القانون ..
+
+302
+00:28:23,600 --> 00:28:28,120
+بنعمله إيش؟ اشتقاق بالأخير بنطلع .. we want to
+
+303
+00:28:28,120 --> 00:28:35,800
+estimate Y بدنا نشوف maximize U تخافوش يا بنات اه؟
+
+304
+00:28:35,800 --> 00:28:41,020
+maximize Y depends on .. maximize U depends on Y
+
+305
+00:28:41,020 --> 00:28:48,800
+فنعمل what is Y؟ إيش التركيبة المفترة؟ Y is the
+
+306
+00:28:48,800 --> 00:28:54,750
+optimal Yأه So
+
+307
+00:28:54,750 --> 00:29:03,850
+it is equal RP minus RF divided by A Sigma Square
+
+308
+00:29:03,850 --> 00:29:13,890
+Okay اتبعوا
+
+309
+00:29:13,890 --> 00:29:19,410
+عندي انتوا بدكم ادخلكوا الاشتراك في ال .. ماشايف
+
+310
+00:29:19,410 --> 00:29:25,620
+ناس ..شايف ناس بفتو كتير قاعدين فانا .. انا بريحكم
+
+311
+00:29:25,620 --> 00:29:38,540
+ال Y ال Y بتساوي زي ما انتوا شايفين RB-RF A Sigma
+
+312
+00:29:38,540 --> 00:29:44,360
+Square P هذا
+
+313
+00:29:44,360 --> 00:29:51,140
+اللي احنا بدنا يعنى okay so Y is equalthe expected
+
+314
+00:29:51,140 --> 00:29:57,380
+return of RB RB هو بتاعة المحفظة ال risk free انا
+
+315
+00:29:57,380 --> 00:30:01,900
+مساهل عليكم و مريحكم كمان okay بالاخير we want to
+
+316
+00:30:01,900 --> 00:30:07,080
+estimate Y بدنا نعرف Y ايش هي Y طلع و هان بدنا
+
+317
+00:30:07,080 --> 00:30:13,780
+نعرف ايش ال Y اللي بتخليني احسن U احسن منفعة okay
+
+318
+00:30:13,780 --> 00:30:14,720
+طيب
+
+319
+00:30:18,850 --> 00:30:23,650
+هي ال Y اللى بتقدر من خلالها نحسب ال RB minus RF
+
+320
+00:30:23,650 --> 00:30:29,710
+divided by A عارفين ال A؟ Sigma squared B Sigma
+
+321
+00:30:29,710 --> 00:30:33,830
+squared B طبعا انتوا عارفينها ان ال B اللى هو
+
+322
+00:30:33,830 --> 00:30:36,190
+Sigma squared of the portfolio of the risky
+
+323
+00:30:36,190 --> 00:30:39,490
+portfolio you know this and this is the expected
+
+324
+00:30:39,490 --> 00:30:44,510
+return expected return of the not risk free the
+
+325
+00:30:44,510 --> 00:30:49,150
+risky portfolioand this is RF is the expected
+
+326
+00:30:49,150 --> 00:30:54,070
+return of the risk-free portfolio and this is a
+
+327
+00:30:54,070 --> 00:30:59,770
+sigma square b if you remove a إذا إحنا بنجيب a
+
+328
+00:30:59,770 --> 00:31:06,610
+تطلعه هذي بتذكركم بإيش شارب if you remove a this
+
+329
+00:31:06,610 --> 00:31:09,730
+is sharp ratio طب إيش كمان غير sharp ratio this is
+
+330
+00:31:09,730 --> 00:31:14,750
+slope as well اللي هي هي شوفوها بال .. هي slope
+
+331
+00:31:14,750 --> 00:31:15,390
+شايفينها؟
+
+332
+00:31:19,120 --> 00:31:27,740
+ARP-ARF SIGMA B This is the slope طيب اذا
+
+333
+00:31:27,740 --> 00:31:32,360
+at the end we want to know why when we know why in
+
+334
+00:31:32,360 --> 00:31:36,840
+this why we can maximize the utility عند هذه ال
+
+335
+00:31:36,840 --> 00:31:40,940
+why هتكون ال utility is maximized طبعا السؤال
+
+336
+00:31:40,940 --> 00:31:44,500
+محلول موجود كهيه ماعليكم انتوا تعيدوا حلو بس خلينا
+
+337
+00:31:44,500 --> 00:31:44,900
+نشوفه
+
+338
+00:31:51,700 --> 00:31:55,400
+طيب انا حليت جزء من ال .. من السؤال هذا السؤال
+
+339
+00:31:55,400 --> 00:32:02,500
+احفظوه زي اسمكم احفظوه زي ايش طبعا
+
+340
+00:32:02,500 --> 00:32:10,900
+هذا المثال هذا المثال اه
+
+341
+00:32:10,900 --> 00:32:17,490
+بقى صحهذا المثال example using chapter 6.4 numbers
+
+342
+00:32:17,490 --> 00:32:26,630
+يعني بترجعوا على مثال 6.4 طيب
+
+343
+00:32:26,630 --> 00:32:32,430
+هاي البيانات سبعته هاي البيانات سبعته okay بنعمله
+
+344
+00:32:32,430 --> 00:32:38,610
+بالاخير البيانات هذه بتطلعلي هذا الجواب طيب خدوا
+
+345
+00:32:38,610 --> 00:32:46,380
+دقيقة واحدة بس طبعا احنااعملنا ال .. اعملنا ال ..
+
+346
+00:32:46,380 --> 00:32:49,680
+اعملنا ال maximized ال utility بالطريقة هذه
+
+347
+00:32:49,680 --> 00:32:53,200
+العادية it takes time و قلنا بدل ما احنا to take
+
+348
+00:32:53,200 --> 00:32:56,720
+time و
+
+349
+00:32:56,720 --> 00:32:59,120
+قلنا بدل ما احنا to take time you just to
+
+350
+00:32:59,120 --> 00:33:03,700
+calculate y star بس احنا نحسب ال y star and in
+
+351
+00:33:03,700 --> 00:33:08,380
+this y star the utility is maximizedOkay look at
+
+352
+00:33:08,380 --> 00:33:11,140
+this table take two minutes three minutes in
+
+353
+00:33:11,140 --> 00:33:14,140
+looking at the table خدولكوا دقيقتين تلاتة تطلعوا
+
+354
+00:33:14,140 --> 00:33:18,500
+على ال table and just mention where is the utility
+
+355
+00:33:18,500 --> 00:33:21,900
+is maximized طلعولي ال utility where is maximized
+
+356
+00:33:21,900 --> 00:33:30,020
+كلامي واضح لأ انتوا تطلعوا دقيقة دقيقتين و jump to
+
+357
+00:33:30,020 --> 00:33:34,220
+the answer و طلعولي بالظبط وين ال utility is
+
+358
+00:33:34,220 --> 00:33:40,610
+maximizedوين أحسن utility؟ خلّي البنات الباقية
+
+359
+00:33:40,610 --> 00:33:50,470
+تطلع على ال table أحمد على ال table هان وين ال
+
+360
+00:33:50,470 --> 00:34:01,490
+utility is maximized طيب
+
+361
+00:34:01,490 --> 00:34:03,530
+سؤال هل عند ال zero
+
+362
+00:34:06,280 --> 00:34:14,760
+طيب هل عند ال .. طب مع إنه ال 15% ال return؟ طيب
+
+363
+00:34:14,760 --> 00:34:19,360
+طب ليش ماحكينا إنه هي Sigma C؟ Zero؟ إن المخاطر
+
+364
+00:34:19,360 --> 00:34:26,780
+Zero؟ أيوة، إذن where أحسن utility سعرات؟ يعني 40%
+
+365
+00:34:26,780 --> 00:34:29,460
+بصبت؟ 40%، so it's C
+
+366
+00:34:34,850 --> 00:34:38,910
+طب اعطوني second observation هاي observation انه
+
+367
+00:34:38,910 --> 00:34:42,670
+احنا لاحظنا ان ال utility is maximized تطلعوا ال
+
+368
+00:34:42,670 --> 00:34:46,810
+utility شو بيصير فيها بناها تطلعوا لو سمحتوا كانت
+
+369
+00:34:46,810 --> 00:34:51,670
+7% زادت يعني لو احنا بدنا نعملها chart ات شارت
+
+370
+00:34:51,670 --> 00:34:59,150
+زادت زادت بعدين عند ال 40% اللي كان صارت تنزل
+
+371
+00:35:02,240 --> 00:35:05,140
+تمانية خمسة تمانية تمانية تلاتة اتنين and so on
+
+372
+00:35:05,140 --> 00:35:12,740
+فاحنا بدنا نسأل وين بالظبط ال Y So
+
+373
+00:35:12,740 --> 00:35:16,800
+to estimate this instead of using the table you
+
+374
+00:35:16,800 --> 00:35:22,980
+just do Y is equal to the expected return of RP
+
+375
+00:35:22,980 --> 00:35:30,730
+minus RF divided by A sigma B squaredبدل ما احنا
+
+376
+00:35:30,730 --> 00:35:33,750
+نرفع كل هذا نحسبها و نروح بس نحسب المعادلة البسيطة
+
+377
+00:35:33,750 --> 00:35:39,670
+هاي we have RB, we have RF, we have A, we have
+
+378
+00:35:39,670 --> 00:35:45,710
+sigma B squared و A هي ماعطيكوا إياها أربعة when
+
+379
+00:35:45,710 --> 00:35:50,470
+you go home just replicate this لما ترجعوا على
+
+380
+00:35:50,470 --> 00:35:54,650
+البيت حاولوا تحلوا السؤال هذا يعني أنا ممكن أجيبكم
+
+381
+00:35:54,650 --> 00:35:57,510
+في الامتحان أمحيكم كل ال table هاد كل ال table
+
+382
+00:35:57,510 --> 00:35:57,850
+أمحي
+
+383
+00:36:00,930 --> 00:36:04,050
+عطيكوا RB وعطيكوا RF وعطيكوا A وعطيكوا Sigma B
+
+384
+00:36:04,050 --> 00:36:09,490
+وأقولكم طلعولي ال Y عند هدول النقاط طبعا أعطيتكوا
+
+385
+00:36:09,490 --> 00:36:12,890
+المعادلات الأولى تبع ال RC كيف انجاب وعطيناكوا ال
+
+386
+00:36:12,890 --> 00:36:17,170
+Sigma C كيف انجاب وعطيناكم ال Utility كيف انجاب بس
+
+387
+00:36:17,170 --> 00:36:20,050
+ارجعوا على البيت and do the table والأجبه ما هي
+
+388
+00:36:20,050 --> 00:36:25,090
+موجودة إذا في خطأ ما هيبين فهمتوا المثال؟ هذا
+
+389
+00:36:25,090 --> 00:36:28,330
+بتكونوا تحفظوه زي اسمكم طيب
+
+390
+00:36:30,460 --> 00:36:37,720
+هي ال curve شوفتي
+
+391
+00:36:37,720 --> 00:36:41,860
+هان؟ ارجع يا .. لأنه عندنا البنات ماعندهم مش كلهم
+
+392
+00:36:41,860 --> 00:36:49,820
+قالعة حاسبة okay؟ ارجعي للمثال بنات هاي
+
+393
+00:36:49,820 --> 00:36:57,740
+المثال كله موجود عندكم بس ال a اضفتلكوا إياها a
+
+394
+00:36:57,740 --> 00:37:03,050
+موجودة في المثال a is equal fourطيب جربوا كمان إذا
+
+395
+00:37:03,050 --> 00:37:14,390
+كانت ال A بتساوي 2 مثلا ممكن
+
+396
+00:37:14,390 --> 00:37:17,650
+إذا .. طبعا هترجع تستخدميها بطريقة إيش ال
+
+397
+00:37:17,650 --> 00:37:21,830
+arithmetic و ال geometric أه بس لأ هي لأن هذا
+
+398
+00:37:21,830 --> 00:37:26,570
+بيصير خطأ إذا غلطتوا فيها هتضيعوا كتير علاماتفبصير
+
+399
+00:37:26,570 --> 00:37:30,650
+خطأ متراكن فاحنا بنحاول نبعدلكم عن المواضيع دي
+
+400
+00:37:30,650 --> 00:37:39,130
+okay طيب شايفين
+
+401
+00:37:39,130 --> 00:37:42,490
+ال curve اللي أنا رسمته هو similar to this هيشوفته
+
+402
+00:37:42,490 --> 00:37:47,630
+عند ال .. عند 40% كانت أفضل .. أفضل utility the
+
+403
+00:37:47,630 --> 00:37:52,120
+best utility طبعا what you can do thenو إيش ممكن
+
+404
+00:37:52,120 --> 00:37:56,700
+تسووا كمان؟ just do with a with you with a is
+
+405
+00:37:56,700 --> 00:38:00,400
+equal to and compare with a is equal four يعني
+
+406
+00:38:00,400 --> 00:38:03,380
+جربوا إذا كانت ال a بتسووا اتنين و جربوا إذا كانت
+
+407
+00:38:03,380 --> 00:38:06,900
+ال a بتسووا four طب إيش رأيكوا؟ خليني أسألكوا سؤال
+
+408
+00:38:06,900 --> 00:38:14,060
+بسيط هيك إذا ان ال a بتسووا اتنين ال y بتزيد ولا
+
+409
+00:38:14,060 --> 00:38:20,760
+بتجلد؟ ليش بتزيد؟ كلامك صح بتزيد بس ليش؟هذا واحد
+
+410
+00:38:20,760 --> 00:38:25,880
+بس هذا from mathematical perspective from
+
+411
+00:38:25,880 --> 00:38:34,040
+investment perspective why؟ لأ عكس كلامك ايوة ال Y
+
+412
+00:38:34,040 --> 00:38:38,380
+هتزيد لإن كل ما بزيد ال Y هذه أسئلة مرات أنا بال
+
+413
+00:38:38,380 --> 00:38:42,140
+understanding بجيبها لحصل الأسئلة اللي بجيبها مش
+
+414
+00:38:42,140 --> 00:38:45,180
+just direct بتعالج إنه كده تحفظ لأ كده how you
+
+415
+00:38:45,180 --> 00:38:50,720
+understand if I increase Yإذا أنا بأعمل increase
+
+416
+00:38:50,720 --> 00:38:53,540
+لل Y معناه كلام I'm increasing the risky asset
+
+417
+00:38:53,540 --> 00:38:59,900
+مظبوط ولا لأ طيب لما ال A بتساوي 2 كل ما بتجل ال A
+
+418
+00:38:59,900 --> 00:39:04,460
+كل ما ال utility لازم تزيد so when we increase
+
+419
+00:39:04,460 --> 00:39:07,620
+utility ال Y لازم تزيد كمان يعني بدل ما احنا
+
+420
+00:39:07,620 --> 00:39:12,640
+نستثمر 40% في ال Y لأ نستثمر ممكن 60% في ال Y أو
+
+421
+00:39:12,640 --> 00:39:17,060
+70% في ال Y just be careful okay
+
+422
+00:39:21,100 --> 00:39:23,940
+عشان هيك الناس اللي بيعملوا investments smart
+
+423
+00:39:23,940 --> 00:39:29,040
+people يعني بيكونوا .. يعني .. اه لإنه بعدين بيبقى
+
+424
+00:39:29,040 --> 00:39:34,900
+وياض اه طيب
+
+425
+00:39:34,900 --> 00:39:38,400
+يعني هالكتاب اللي مانطلع ال y star لازم يكون أكبر
+
+426
+00:39:38,400 --> 00:39:49,440
+من ال y الأساسية اه في أي حالة هذه؟لأ جربيها طيب
+
+427
+00:39:49,440 --> 00:39:52,960
+أخر إشي عشان نخلص ال chapter هذا this is the end
+
+428
+00:39:52,960 --> 00:39:56,380
+of this chapter ان شاء الله on Saturday we have a
+
+429
+00:39:56,380 --> 00:40:00,000
+new chapter on the investment environment هذا أخر
+
+430
+00:40:00,000 --> 00:40:08,540
+.. تبوا طيب بعد المحاضرة passive strategies the
+
+431
+00:40:08,540 --> 00:40:11,900
+capital market line فاكرين ال passive strategies؟
+
+432
+00:40:13,140 --> 00:40:15,760
+The passive strategy avoids any direct or indirect
+
+433
+00:40:15,760 --> 00:40:18,540
+security analysis هذا كلام حكيته في chapter one
+
+434
+00:40:18,540 --> 00:40:20,620
+and chapter two when I talk about the passive
+
+435
+00:40:20,620 --> 00:40:25,360
+management with regard the active management The
+
+436
+00:40:25,360 --> 00:40:27,700
+passive strategy avoids any direct or indirect
+
+437
+00:40:27,700 --> 00:40:30,720
+security analysis, why? Because they think the
+
+438
+00:40:30,720 --> 00:40:34,360
+market is efficient and you can go to select any
+
+439
+00:40:34,360 --> 00:40:37,340
+particular stock and put it in your portfolioيعني
+
+440
+00:40:37,340 --> 00:40:39,600
+ممكن تختاروا أي asset و تحطوه في ال portfolio
+
+441
+00:40:39,600 --> 00:40:43,160
+بتاعكم supply and demand forces may make such a
+
+442
+00:40:43,160 --> 00:40:46,300
+strategy a reasonable choice for many investors
+
+443
+00:40:46,300 --> 00:40:50,560
+هذه ال strategy كويسة كتير لبعض ال investors خاصة
+
+444
+00:40:50,560 --> 00:40:53,940
+ال investors دي small investors المستثمرين الصغار
+
+445
+00:40:53,940 --> 00:40:56,940
+they don't need to waste their time in looking
+
+446
+00:40:56,940 --> 00:41:02,460
+which is the best investment but they can select
+
+447
+00:41:02,460 --> 00:41:06,660
+any particular stock from the indexOkay because
+
+448
+00:41:06,660 --> 00:41:12,220
+the market is categorize or ranking the investment
+
+449
+00:41:12,220 --> 00:41:15,720
+according to its efficiency يعني ال .. الاستثمار
+
+450
+00:41:15,720 --> 00:41:19,520
+أصلا بيرتب ال .. ال .. البيانات أو الشركات حسب ال
+
+451
+00:41:19,520 --> 00:41:23,520
+efficiency تبقيتها فمافيش حاجة أنه احنا نروح نعمل
+
+452
+00:41:23,520 --> 00:41:29,080
+تحليل لهم يعني مثلا زي مثلا شركة بتتوظف في الناس
+
+453
+00:41:29,080 --> 00:41:33,260
+ال .. او طلاب الجددالمتخرجين أجداد فبروحوش يعملوا
+
+454
+00:41:33,260 --> 00:41:35,780
+امتحانات من جديد للطلاب بيشوفوا الدرجات أفضل طلاب
+
+455
+00:41:35,780 --> 00:41:38,280
+حاططيه على درجات معينة بيروحوا بياخدوهم، so this
+
+456
+00:41:38,280 --> 00:41:43,740
+is the thing okay so a natural candidate for
+
+457
+00:41:43,740 --> 00:41:47,320
+passively held risky assets would be a well
+
+458
+00:41:47,320 --> 00:41:49,800
+diversified portfolio of common stocks such as the
+
+459
+00:41:49,800 --> 00:41:54,360
+S&P500يعني naturally بالطبيعي بدل ما انا to waste
+
+460
+00:41:54,360 --> 00:41:57,520
+my time بروح على ال indexes وهذا شرحته زمان ال
+
+461
+00:41:57,520 --> 00:42:01,520
+indexes الاستثمار في ال indexes ال indexes يعني
+
+462
+00:42:01,520 --> 00:42:07,520
+مثلا زي ال S&P500 او زي القدس مثلا في عندنا مؤشر
+
+463
+00:42:07,520 --> 00:42:13,200
+القدس تبع فلسطين زي مؤشر عمان مثلا زي مثلا مؤشر
+
+464
+00:42:13,200 --> 00:42:15,660
+Cairo and Alexandria 4100
+
+465
+00:42:18,200 --> 00:42:21,540
+في ال 4100 مثلا أقوى 100 شركة they are ranking
+
+466
+00:42:21,540 --> 00:42:24,980
+them so why you are wasting your time on looking
+
+467
+00:42:24,980 --> 00:42:29,500
+which is the best company and the index itself is
+
+468
+00:42:29,500 --> 00:42:33,640
+ranking them فأحسن استراتيجية أنه احنا نروح نستثمر
+
+469
+00:42:33,640 --> 00:42:37,540
+على مثلا عندنا القدس بدهم أفضل مثلا مجموعة شركات
+
+470
+00:42:37,540 --> 00:42:40,760
+فبتروح و بتستثمروا في أفضل الشركات okay هذه ال
+
+471
+00:42:40,760 --> 00:42:45,340
+small investors والمهم كتير يتعرفوا عليهمThe
+
+472
+00:42:45,340 --> 00:42:47,900
+capital market line is the capital allocation line
+
+473
+00:42:47,900 --> 00:42:50,660
+formed from one month's treasury bills and the
+
+474
+00:42:50,660 --> 00:42:55,800
+bond ال capital market line اللي هو هذا هذا بيسموه
+
+475
+00:42:55,800 --> 00:42:58,220
+security market line وبعض الناس بيسموه capital
+
+476
+00:42:58,220 --> 00:43:02,600
+market line خط السوق بيعمل ranking لل return و ال
+
+477
+00:43:02,600 --> 00:43:06,080
+risk فانت بدك risk عالي بتروح على العالي بدك risk
+
+478
+00:43:06,080 --> 00:43:08,960
+أقل بتروح على الأقل okay
+
+479
+00:43:12,750 --> 00:43:15,910
+والسيكورتي ماركت لاين تعمل من خلال استراتيجية
+
+480
+00:43:15,910 --> 00:43:19,530
+تتعلق بالاستثمار في بورتفاليو باسيف دي هذا
+
+481
+00:43:19,530 --> 00:43:22,650
+السيكورتي
+
+482
+00:43:22,650 --> 00:43:27,750
+ماركت لاين بيخدمنا بشغل تان، virtual risk-free
+
+483
+00:43:27,750 --> 00:43:33,980
+shots ممكن نكون محافظة استثمارية قصيرة الأجلOkay
+
+484
+00:43:33,980 --> 00:43:36,400
+or a money market funds يعني اللي بده يستثمر
+
+485
+00:43:36,400 --> 00:43:39,460
+باستثمارات قصيرة الأجر بيقدر طبعا وين هتكون؟ هتكون
+
+486
+00:43:39,460 --> 00:43:44,220
+في المنطقة هذه هنستخدم ال commercial paper اتنين a
+
+487
+00:43:44,220 --> 00:43:48,240
+fund of common stocks that mimics a broad market
+
+488
+00:43:48,240 --> 00:43:52,020
+index او ممكن نستثمر في ال long term و خاصة بال ..
+
+489
+00:43:52,020 --> 00:43:56,880
+بال .. بال stocks هيك بيكون احنا خلصنا ال .. ال
+
+490
+00:43:56,880 --> 00:43:57,420
+chapter هذا
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/khKT4wZ2J3A_raw.json b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/khKT4wZ2J3A_raw.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..b2fe3144807a625ecb228c897121926a6883a044
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/khKT4wZ2J3A_raw.json
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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يعني بدأ أعرف من وين إجت كلمة ال random walk", "tokens": [3322, 7901, 1524, 264, 4974, 1792, 37495, 22653, 16247, 3794, 3615, 9640, 39894, 2655, 3555, 3615, 21136, 1211, 2407, 4117, 18863, 8592, 2407, 16373, 1829, 1036, 1818, 13672, 26895, 3660, 9673, 46958, 10632, 286, 3031, 281, 4386, 281, 458, 437, 307, 264, 12801, 295, 264, 4974, 1792, 37495, 22653, 47525, 10721, 5551, 3615, 28480, 9154, 4032, 9957, 11933, 7435, 2655, 9122, 19528, 3660, 2423, 4974, 1792], "avg_logprob": -0.12465018879121809, "compression_ratio": 1.4486486486486487, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 116.98, "end": 117.16, "word": "the", "probability": 0.8154296875}, {"start": 117.16, "end": 117.52, "word": " prices", "probability": 0.8486328125}, {"start": 117.52, "end": 117.78, "word": " follow", "probability": 0.85302734375}, {"start": 117.78, "end": 117.96, "word": " the", "probability": 0.92041015625}, {"start": 117.96, "end": 118.18, "word": " random", "probability": 0.89111328125}, {"start": 118.18, 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random walk exactly when the drug takers asking them to walk", "tokens": [3322, 4974, 1792, 307, 406, 45222, 294, 10719, 19446, 1829, 7435, 9307, 8592, 9154, 2423, 10719, 309, 311, 45222, 490, 264, 15105, 3497, 646, 281, 1294, 13328, 1975, 7435, 2655, 9154, 11203, 2304, 28239, 36178, 8978, 8608, 1863, 3660, 27188, 6055, 3794, 25957, 16373, 10632, 4032, 16490, 2304, 3794, 3660, 293, 341, 4974, 1792, 2293, 562, 264, 4110, 991, 433, 3365, 552, 281, 1792], "avg_logprob": -0.21586538461538463, "compression_ratio": 1.37, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 135.59, "end": 136.09, "word": "the", "probability": 0.59423828125}, {"start": 136.09, "end": 136.45, "word": " random", "probability": 0.87158203125}, {"start": 136.45, "end": 136.85, "word": " walk", "probability": 0.9365234375}, {"start": 136.85, "end": 137.39, "word": " is", "probability": 0.95166015625}, {"start": 137.39, "end": 137.61, "word": " not", "probability": 0.96923828125}, {"start": 137.61, "end": 137.99, "word": " 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346.04, "end": 346.38, "word": " دولار", "probability": 0.9755859375}, {"start": 346.38, "end": 347.38, "word": " what", "probability": 0.9267578125}, {"start": 347.38, "end": 347.5, "word": " is", "probability": 0.94970703125}, {"start": 347.5, "end": 347.62, "word": " the", "probability": 0.9287109375}, {"start": 347.62, "end": 347.86, "word": " price", "probability": 0.9345703125}, {"start": 347.86, "end": 348.26, "word": " today", "probability": 0.79345703125}, {"start": 348.26, "end": 349.38, "word": " is", "probability": 0.93359375}, {"start": 349.38, "end": 349.54, "word": " a", "probability": 0.978515625}, {"start": 349.54, "end": 349.94, "word": " function", "probability": 0.966796875}, {"start": 349.94, "end": 350.32, "word": " of", "probability": 0.9775390625}, {"start": 350.32, "end": 350.48, "word": " the", "probability": 0.91259765625}, {"start": 350.48, "end": 350.84, "word": " price", "probability": 0.9423828125}, {"start": 350.84, "end": 351.3, "word": " yesterday", "probability": 0.716796875}, {"start": 351.3, "end": 351.72, "word": " plus", "probability": 0.92529296875}, {"start": 351.72, "end": 351.94, "word": " the", "probability": 0.9111328125}, {"start": 351.94, "end": 352.2, "word": " error", "probability": 0.90625}, {"start": 352.2, "end": 353.58, "word": " and", "probability": 0.86328125}, {"start": 353.58, "end": 353.96, "word": " error", "probability": 0.91943359375}, {"start": 353.96, "end": 354.3, "word": " هي", "probability": 0.449951171875}, {"start": 354.3, "end": 354.96, "word": " is", "probability": 0.9130859375}, {"start": 354.96, "end": 355.62, "word": " وال", "probability": 0.296142578125}, {"start": 355.62, "end": 355.92, "word": " error", "probability": 0.69189453125}, {"start": 355.92, "end": 356.3, "word": " هان", "probability": 0.85498046875}, {"start": 356.3, "end": 356.54, "word": " هي", "probability": 0.88720703125}, {"start": 356.54, "end": 356.92, "word": " is", "probability": 0.84326171875}, {"start": 356.92, "end": 357.54, "word": " randomly", "probability": 0.89501953125}, {"start": 357.54, "end": 358.4, "word": " generated", "probability": 0.888671875}, {"start": 358.4, "end": 360.32, "word": " randomly", "probability": 0.468505859375}, {"start": 360.32, "end": 361.02, "word": " generated", "probability": 0.8720703125}, {"start": 361.02, "end": 361.5, "word": " يعني", "probability": 0.906982421875}, {"start": 361.5, "end": 361.74, "word": " هي", "probability": 0.8662109375}, {"start": 361.74, "end": 363.62, "word": " تيجي", "probability": 0.93798828125}, {"start": 363.62, "end": 363.98, "word": " بطريقة", "probability": 0.981689453125}, {"start": 363.98, "end": 364.54, "word": " عشوائية", "probability": 0.992578125}, {"start": 364.54, "end": 365.1, "word": " for", "probability": 0.95654296875}, {"start": 365.1, "end": 365.64, "word": " instance", "probability": 0.96630859375}, {"start": 365.64, "end": 367.54, "word": " it", "probability": 0.9482421875}, {"start": 367.54, "end": 367.74, "word": " could", "probability": 0.9384765625}, {"start": 367.74, "end": 367.94, "word": " be", "probability": 0.96826171875}, {"start": 367.94, "end": 368.16, "word": " two", "probability": 0.6181640625}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 16, "seek": 39065, "start": 369.97, "end": 390.65, "text": "it could be one it could be minus one it means in other ways it is minus alpha to plus alpha يعني هي بتمتد من minus alpha to plus alpha so nobody knows what is the epsilon ماحدش بيعرف ال epsilon because it is randomly generated", "tokens": [270, 727, 312, 472, 309, 727, 312, 3175, 472, 309, 1355, 294, 661, 2098, 309, 307, 3175, 8961, 281, 1804, 8961, 37495, 22653, 39896, 39894, 2304, 2655, 3215, 9154, 3175, 8961, 281, 1804, 8961, 370, 5079, 3255, 437, 307, 264, 17889, 19446, 24401, 8592, 4724, 40228, 28480, 2423, 17889, 570, 309, 307, 16979, 10833], "avg_logprob": -0.13536931384693493, "compression_ratio": 1.5272727272727273, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 369.97, "end": 370.19, "word": "it", 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جي مثلا okay", "tokens": [1211, 33456, 3224, 39896, 16979, 10833, 37495, 22653, 4724, 9566, 16572, 28671, 6225, 8592, 2407, 16373, 10632, 341, 307, 490, 264, 32811, 935, 295, 1910, 29538, 9154, 49610, 3224, 3660, 8717, 19913, 2288, 2423, 18666, 293, 29588, 2567, 935, 295, 1910, 9154, 49610, 3224, 3660, 8717, 19913, 2288, 33688, 5016, 9381, 16606, 9154, 49610, 3224, 3660, 8717, 19913, 2288, 2423, 4386, 29538, 20449, 18513, 37977, 2423, 4974, 1792, 1783, 51, 13672, 1829, 31439, 21136, 3615, 2288, 13672, 1829, 1975, 5016, 8315, 8717, 2655, 30543, 3615, 3224, 39894, 3794, 995, 45865, 8961, 37495, 22653, 16490, 20292, 8315, 45164, 10874, 1829, 50113, 15040, 1392], "avg_logprob": -0.20464199607812086, "compression_ratio": 1.6747967479674797, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 391.67, "end": 392.01, "word": "لأنه", "probability": 0.6588134765625}, {"start": 392.01, "end": 392.33, "word": " هي", "probability": 0.55029296875}, {"start": 392.33, "end": 393.11, "word": " randomly", 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21694, 613, 1589, 4386, 1564, 436, 22370, 341, 1589], "avg_logprob": -0.3688151041666667, "compression_ratio": 1.2413793103448276, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 671.57, "end": 672.13, "word": "once", "probability": 0.626953125}, {"start": 672.13, "end": 673.29, "word": " they", "probability": 0.91357421875}, {"start": 673.29, "end": 673.95, "word": " uncover", "probability": 0.58154296875}, {"start": 673.95, "end": 674.75, "word": " these", "probability": 0.55517578125}, {"start": 674.75, "end": 675.33, "word": " information", "probability": 0.5498046875}, {"start": 675.33, "end": 675.49, "word": " ..", "probability": 0.2392578125}, {"start": 675.49, "end": 675.89, "word": " once", "probability": 0.85546875}, {"start": 675.89, "end": 676.19, "word": " they", "probability": 0.951171875}, {"start": 676.19, "end": 676.65, "word": " locate", "probability": 0.93701171875}, {"start": 676.65, "end": 676.89, "word": " this", "probability": 0.82177734375}, {"start": 676.89, "end": 677.41, "word": " information", "probability": 0.87841796875}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 28, "seek": 70295, "start": 678.85, "end": 702.95, "text": "the .. the prices already reflected this price .. this information so what is the reason of spend time and money in collecting the information and the prices is already reflected this information يعني أن بعض الناس بروح ب .. ب .. ب .. بنفقوا أموال و فلوس و وقت و .. و .. حتى يحصلوا على معلومات و حتى لما يجدوا المعلومات أصلا أسعار reflected this information", "tokens": [3322, 4386, 264, 7901, 1217, 15502, 341, 3218, 4386, 341, 1589, 370, 437, 307, 264, 1778, 295, 3496, 565, 293, 1460, 294, 12510, 264, 1589, 293, 264, 7901, 307, 1217, 15502, 341, 1589, 37495, 22653, 14739, 45030, 11242, 2423, 8315, 3794, 4724, 32887, 5016, 4724, 4386, 4724, 4386, 4724, 4386, 44945, 5172, 4587, 14407, 5551, 2304, 2407, 6027, 4032, 6156, 1211, 41779, 4032, 4032, 38149, 4032, 4386, 4032, 4386, 11331, 49975, 7251, 5016, 36520, 14407, 15844, 20449, 1211, 20498, 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" يعني", "probability": 0.83642578125}, {"start": 692.13, "end": 692.93, "word": " أن", "probability": 0.4052734375}, {"start": 692.93, "end": 693.21, "word": " بعض", "probability": 0.960205078125}, {"start": 693.21, "end": 693.47, "word": " الناس", "probability": 0.98388671875}, {"start": 693.47, "end": 693.71, "word": " بروح", "probability": 0.784912109375}, {"start": 693.71, "end": 693.79, "word": " ب", "probability": 0.450927734375}, {"start": 693.79, "end": 693.99, "word": " ..", "probability": 0.48876953125}, {"start": 693.99, "end": 694.41, "word": " ب", "probability": 0.86376953125}, {"start": 694.41, "end": 694.41, "word": " ..", "probability": 0.89013671875}, {"start": 694.41, "end": 694.59, "word": " ب", "probability": 0.60546875}, {"start": 694.59, "end": 694.71, "word": " ..", "probability": 0.497802734375}, {"start": 694.71, "end": 694.95, "word": " بنفقوا", "probability": 0.89599609375}, {"start": 694.95, "end": 695.51, "word": " أموال", "probability": 0.9478759765625}, 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"word": " و", "probability": 0.8779296875}, {"start": 699.55, "end": 699.77, "word": " حتى", "probability": 0.8857421875}, {"start": 699.77, "end": 699.95, "word": " لما", "probability": 0.970703125}, {"start": 699.95, "end": 700.25, "word": " يجدوا", "probability": 0.971435546875}, {"start": 700.25, "end": 700.87, "word": " المعلومات", "probability": 0.986572265625}, {"start": 700.87, "end": 701.57, "word": " أصلا", "probability": 0.9078776041666666}, {"start": 701.57, "end": 701.97, "word": " أسعار", "probability": 0.80712890625}, {"start": 701.97, "end": 702.33, "word": " reflected", "probability": 0.97607421875}, {"start": 702.33, "end": 702.59, "word": " this", "probability": 0.9609375}, {"start": 702.59, "end": 702.95, "word": " information", "probability": 0.9111328125}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 29, "seek": 73071, "start": 703.77, "end": 730.71, "text": "so there is no reason مافيش داعي ان احنا ندور على هذه المعلومات لأن بالاخير المعلومات موجودة في السعر نفسه okay هذا حسب ال efficient market hypothesis efficient market hypothesis فبصير competition between the investors to collect this private information بصير منافسة بين ال investors حتى يجمعوا البيانات", "tokens": [539, 456, 307, 572, 1778, 19446, 41185, 8592, 11778, 45761, 1829, 16472, 1975, 5016, 8315, 8717, 3215, 13063, 15844, 29538, 9673, 30241, 20498, 9307, 5296, 33456, 20666, 47283, 13546, 9673, 30241, 20498, 9307, 3714, 29245, 23328, 3660, 8978, 21136, 3615, 2288, 8717, 36178, 3224, 1392, 23758, 11331, 35457, 2423, 7148, 2142, 17291, 7148, 2142, 17291, 6156, 3555, 9381, 13546, 6211, 1296, 264, 11519, 281, 2500, 341, 4551, 1589, 4724, 9381, 13546, 3714, 8315, 36178, 3660, 49374, 2423, 11519, 11331, 49975, 7251, 7435, 2304, 3615, 14407, 2423, 21292, 7649, 9307], "avg_logprob": -0.1335937531458007, "compression_ratio": 1.6456692913385826, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 703.77, "end": 704.05, "word": "so", "probability": 0.424560546875}, {"start": 704.05, "end": 704.25, "word": " there", 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مكان فيه منافسة أكتر كل مكان ال price is efficient لأنه بتكون المعلومات أكتر and the information is available to the public but sometimes one of the investor discover a particular information let's take this example here", "tokens": [3322, 544, 264, 6211, 307, 264, 544, 264, 7148, 3218, 28242, 3714, 41361, 8978, 3224, 3714, 8315, 36178, 3660, 5551, 4117, 2655, 2288, 28242, 3714, 41361, 2423, 3218, 307, 7148, 5296, 33456, 3224, 39894, 30544, 9673, 30241, 20498, 9307, 5551, 4117, 2655, 2288, 293, 264, 1589, 307, 2435, 281, 264, 1908, 457, 2171, 472, 295, 264, 18479, 4411, 257, 1729, 1589, 718, 311, 747, 341, 1365, 510], "avg_logprob": -0.18313418701291084, "compression_ratio": 1.5518867924528301, "no_speech_prob": 5.960464477539063e-08, "words": [{"start": 731.55, "end": 731.93, "word": "the", "probability": 0.50048828125}, {"start": 731.93, "end": 732.31, "word": " more", "probability": 0.95068359375}, {"start": 732.31, "end": 732.75, "word": " the", "probability": 0.8515625}, {"start": 732.75, "end": 733.25, "word": " competition", "probability": 0.93115234375}, {"start": 733.25, "end": 733.85, "word": " is", "probability": 0.9755859375}, {"start": 733.85, "end": 734.47, "word": " the", "probability": 0.509765625}, {"start": 734.47, "end": 734.77, "word": " more", "probability": 0.935546875}, {"start": 734.77, "end": 734.95, "word": " the", "probability": 0.446533203125}, {"start": 734.95, "end": 735.37, "word": " efficient", "probability": 0.75244140625}, {"start": 735.37, "end": 735.95, "word": " price", "probability": 0.57470703125}, {"start": 735.95, "end": 736.99, "word": " كل", "probability": 0.86328125}, {"start": 736.99, "end": 737.25, "word": " مكان", "probability": 0.9580078125}, {"start": 737.25, "end": 737.45, "word": " فيه", "probability": 0.9375}, {"start": 737.45, "end": 737.87, "word": " منافسة", "probability": 0.96337890625}, {"start": 737.87, "end": 738.27, "word": " أكتر", "probability": 0.941162109375}, {"start": 738.27, "end": 739.35, "word": " 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هيروح", "probability": 0.7331136067708334}, {"start": 802.67, "end": 802.91, "word": " يشتري", "probability": 0.916015625}, {"start": 802.91, "end": 803.19, "word": " مثلا", "probability": 0.97998046875}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 33, "seek": 83098, "start": 804.38, "end": 830.98, "text": "فهو استخدمها مرة واحدة مش هيروح يستخدمها كمان مرة لأنه السوق عرف هذه المعلومة and this information is publicly available و هذه المعلومات هي متوفرة بشكل .. خلينا نشوف مثلا واحد من ال investors .. ال investors شافها ال .. شافها الطريقة هذه what do you think about this .. this chart", "tokens": [5172, 3224, 2407, 44713, 9778, 40448, 11296, 3714, 25720, 36764, 24401, 3660, 37893, 8032, 13546, 2407, 5016, 7251, 14851, 9778, 40448, 11296, 9122, 2304, 7649, 3714, 25720, 5296, 33456, 3224, 21136, 30543, 6225, 28480, 29538, 9673, 30241, 20498, 3660, 293, 341, 1589, 307, 14843, 2435, 4032, 29538, 9673, 30241, 20498, 9307, 39896, 44650, 38688, 25720, 4724, 8592, 28820, 4386, 16490, 1211, 9957, 995, 8717, 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{"start": 1580.55, "end": 1580.73, "word": " we", "probability": 0.953125}, {"start": 1580.73, "end": 1581.17, "word": " have", "probability": 0.953125}, {"start": 1581.17, "end": 1581.51, "word": " the", "probability": 0.8359375}, {"start": 1581.51, "end": 1581.91, "word": " strong", "probability": 0.919921875}, {"start": 1581.91, "end": 1583.71, "word": " The", "probability": 0.56494140625}, {"start": 1583.71, "end": 1584.07, "word": " main", "probability": 0.939453125}, {"start": 1584.07, "end": 1584.95, "word": " issue", "probability": 0.9453125}, {"start": 1584.95, "end": 1585.29, "word": " that", "probability": 0.9208984375}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 61, "seek": 161311, "start": 1586.69, "end": 1613.11, "text": "make us to judge whether this market is weak or strong or semi-strong is the availability of the information يعني الشغل اللي بتخليني أميز أنه هذا is weak ضعيف semi-strong شبه قوي قوي هو مدى availability of information مدى توفر المعلومات for instance if you look at the weak markets", "tokens": [38705, 505, 281, 6995, 1968, 341, 2142, 307, 5336, 420, 2068, 420, 12909, 12, 28063, 307, 264, 17945, 295, 264, 1589, 37495, 22653, 25124, 17082, 1211, 13672, 1829, 39894, 9778, 1211, 9957, 1829, 5551, 2304, 1829, 11622, 14739, 3224, 23758, 307, 5336, 48812, 3615, 33911, 12909, 12, 28063, 13412, 3555, 3224, 12174, 45865, 12174, 45865, 31439, 3714, 3215, 7578, 17945, 295, 1589, 3714, 3215, 7578, 33427, 5172, 2288, 9673, 30241, 20498, 9307, 337, 5197, 498, 291, 574, 412, 264, 5336, 8383], "avg_logprob": -0.16530107434202984, "compression_ratio": 1.547085201793722, "no_speech_prob": 1.1920928955078125e-07, "words": [{"start": 1586.69, "end": 1587.09, "word": "make", "probability": 0.23291015625}, {"start": 1587.09, "end": 1587.41, "word": " us", "probability": 0.93017578125}, {"start": 1587.41, "end": 1587.59, "word": " to", "probability": 0.94677734375}, {"start": 1587.59, "end": 1587.93, "word": " judge", "probability": 0.95556640625}, {"start": 1587.93, "end": 1588.27, "word": " whether", "probability": 0.8173828125}, {"start": 1588.27, "end": 1588.61, "word": " this", "probability": 0.9501953125}, {"start": 1588.61, "end": 1589.07, "word": " market", "probability": 0.92529296875}, {"start": 1589.07, "end": 1589.51, "word": " is", "probability": 0.95166015625}, {"start": 1589.51, "end": 1590.33, "word": " weak", "probability": 0.984375}, {"start": 1590.33, "end": 1590.67, "word": " or", "probability": 0.9091796875}, {"start": 1590.67, "end": 1591.21, "word": " strong", "probability": 0.9130859375}, {"start": 1591.21, "end": 1591.43, "word": " or", "probability": 0.95068359375}, {"start": 1591.43, "end": 1591.67, "word": " semi", "probability": 0.7587890625}, {"start": 1591.67, "end": 1592.07, "word": "-strong", "probability": 0.740478515625}, {"start": 1592.07, "end": 1592.89, "word": " is", "probability": 0.921875}, {"start": 1592.89, "end": 1593.09, "word": " the", "probability": 0.84326171875}, {"start": 1593.09, "end": 1593.55, "word": " availability", "probability": 0.97509765625}, {"start": 1593.55, "end": 1593.85, "word": " of", "probability": 0.98193359375}, {"start": 1593.85, "end": 1593.93, "word": " the", "probability": 0.74609375}, {"start": 1593.93, "end": 1594.43, "word": " information", "probability": 0.8759765625}, {"start": 1594.43, "end": 1595.71, "word": " يعني", "probability": 0.865966796875}, {"start": 1595.71, "end": 1596.37, "word": " الشغل", "probability": 0.8447265625}, {"start": 1596.37, "end": 1596.45, "word": " اللي", "probability": 0.928466796875}, {"start": 1596.45, "end": 1596.93, "word": " بتخليني", "probability": 0.88955078125}, {"start": 1596.93, "end": 1597.57, "word": " أميز", "probability": 0.89501953125}, {"start": 1597.57, "end": 1598.33, "word": " أنه", "probability": 0.433349609375}, {"start": 1598.33, "end": 1598.55, "word": " هذا", "probability": 0.83837890625}, {"start": 1598.55, "end": 1599.03, "word": " is", "probability": 0.51611328125}, {"start": 1599.03, "end": 1600.47, "word": " weak", "probability": 0.90087890625}, {"start": 1600.47, "end": 1600.97, "word": " ضعيف", "probability": 0.89013671875}, {"start": 1600.97, "end": 1601.61, "word": " semi", "probability": 0.50244140625}, {"start": 1601.61, "end": 1602.09, "word": "-strong", "probability": 0.84521484375}, {"start": 1602.09, "end": 1602.59, "word": " شبه", "probability": 0.9562174479166666}, {"start": 1602.59, "end": 1602.95, "word": " قوي", "probability": 0.83740234375}, {"start": 1602.95, "end": 1603.85, "word": " قوي", "probability": 0.767578125}, {"start": 1603.85, "end": 1604.91, "word": " هو", "probability": 0.84423828125}, {"start": 1604.91, "end": 1605.51, "word": " مدى", "probability": 0.9552408854166666}, {"start": 1605.51, "end": 1606.15, "word": " availability", "probability": 0.5693359375}, {"start": 1606.15, "end": 1606.49, "word": " of", "probability": 0.9619140625}, {"start": 1606.49, "end": 1607.45, "word": " information", "probability": 0.79443359375}, {"start": 1607.45, "end": 1608.39, "word": " مدى", "probability": 0.9161783854166666}, {"start": 1608.39, "end": 1608.75, "word": " توفر", "probability": 0.9347330729166666}, {"start": 1608.75, "end": 1609.35, "word": " المعلومات", "probability": 0.991455078125}, {"start": 1609.35, "end": 1610.71, "word": " for", "probability": 0.8623046875}, {"start": 1610.71, "end": 1611.17, "word": " instance", "probability": 0.9638671875}, {"start": 1611.17, "end": 1611.73, "word": " if", "probability": 0.880859375}, {"start": 1611.73, "end": 1611.87, "word": " you", "probability": 0.97314453125}, {"start": 1611.87, "end": 1612.05, "word": " look", "probability": 0.9775390625}, {"start": 1612.05, "end": 1612.21, "word": " at", "probability": 0.97900390625}, {"start": 1612.21, "end": 1612.35, "word": " the", "probability": 0.90576171875}, {"start": 1612.35, "end": 1612.57, "word": " weak", "probability": 0.96044921875}, {"start": 1612.57, "end": 1613.11, "word": " markets", "probability": 0.83203125}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 62, "seek": 164003, "start": 1614.73, "end": 1640.03, "text": "إذا احنا نظرنا لل weak markets the weak market is only reflected the historical prices يعني ال weak market السوق الضعيف فقط بيعكس الأسعار السابقة that's it the past historical prices and the trading volume as well", "tokens": [28814, 15730, 1975, 5016, 8315, 8717, 19913, 2288, 8315, 24976, 5336, 8383, 264, 5336, 2142, 307, 787, 15502, 264, 8584, 7901, 37495, 22653, 2423, 5336, 2142, 21136, 30543, 2423, 11242, 3615, 33911, 6156, 47432, 4724, 40228, 4117, 3794, 16247, 3794, 3615, 9640, 21136, 16758, 28671, 300, 311, 309, 264, 1791, 8584, 7901, 293, 264, 9529, 5523, 382, 731], "avg_logprob": -0.17743644522408308, "compression_ratio": 1.4860335195530727, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 1614.73, "end": 1615.01, "word": "إذا", "probability": 0.94384765625}, {"start": 1615.01, "end": 1615.23, "word": " احنا", "probability": 0.7972005208333334}, {"start": 1615.23, "end": 1615.59, "word": " نظرنا", 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prices", "probability": 0.892578125}, {"start": 1621.91, "end": 1624.99, "word": " يعني", "probability": 0.901123046875}, {"start": 1624.99, "end": 1625.35, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.97119140625}, {"start": 1625.35, "end": 1625.55, "word": " weak", "probability": 0.9765625}, {"start": 1625.55, "end": 1625.93, "word": " market", "probability": 0.97705078125}, {"start": 1625.93, "end": 1626.23, "word": " السوق", "probability": 0.74755859375}, {"start": 1626.23, "end": 1627.15, "word": " الضعيف", "probability": 0.720916748046875}, {"start": 1627.15, "end": 1628.13, "word": " فقط", "probability": 0.984130859375}, {"start": 1628.13, "end": 1630.85, "word": " بيعكس", "probability": 0.88623046875}, {"start": 1630.85, "end": 1631.89, "word": " الأسعار", "probability": 0.9766845703125}, {"start": 1631.89, "end": 1633.39, "word": " السابقة", "probability": 0.99267578125}, {"start": 1633.39, "end": 1634.31, "word": " that's", "probability": 0.801513671875}, {"start": 1634.31, "end": 1635.33, "word": " it", "probability": 0.9775390625}, {"start": 1635.33, "end": 1635.77, "word": " the", "probability": 0.681640625}, {"start": 1635.77, "end": 1636.13, "word": " past", "probability": 0.943359375}, {"start": 1636.13, "end": 1636.71, "word": " historical", "probability": 0.87451171875}, {"start": 1636.71, "end": 1637.31, "word": " prices", "probability": 0.896484375}, {"start": 1637.31, "end": 1638.67, "word": " and", "probability": 0.95556640625}, {"start": 1638.67, "end": 1638.97, "word": " the", "probability": 0.8974609375}, {"start": 1638.97, "end": 1639.25, "word": " trading", "probability": 0.90478515625}, {"start": 1639.25, "end": 1639.63, "word": " volume", "probability": 0.923828125}, {"start": 1639.63, "end": 1639.85, "word": " as", "probability": 0.9814453125}, {"start": 1639.85, "end": 1640.03, "word": " well", "probability": 0.9580078125}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 63, "seek": 166936, "start": 1642.02, "end": 1669.36, "text": "the historical prices الأسعار و ال trading volume حجم التداول okay and based on this understanding or based on the weak form hypothesis it means there is no worth to use the chart مافيش اهمية لاستخدام ال chart اللي هو الرسومات البيانية", "tokens": [3322, 8584, 7901, 16247, 3794, 3615, 9640, 4032, 2423, 9529, 5523, 11331, 7435, 2304, 16712, 28259, 12610, 1392, 293, 2361, 322, 341, 3701, 420, 2361, 322, 264, 5336, 1254, 17291, 309, 1355, 456, 307, 572, 3163, 281, 764, 264, 6927, 19446, 41185, 8592, 1975, 16095, 10632, 20193, 14851, 9778, 3215, 10943, 2423, 6927, 13672, 1829, 31439, 34892, 3794, 20498, 9307, 2423, 21292, 7649, 10632], "avg_logprob": -0.21514423076923078, "compression_ratio": 1.434782608695652, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 1642.02, "end": 1642.96, "word": "the", "probability": 0.48681640625}, {"start": 1642.96, "end": 1643.34, "word": " historical", "probability": 0.90478515625}, {"start": 1643.34, "end": 1643.92, "word": " prices", "probability": 0.8837890625}, {"start": 1643.92, "end": 1644.72, "word": " الأسعار", "probability": 0.91357421875}, {"start": 1644.72, "end": 1645.64, "word": " و", "probability": 0.5478515625}, {"start": 1645.64, "end": 1646.06, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.4306640625}, {"start": 1646.06, "end": 1646.68, "word": " trading", "probability": 0.95166015625}, {"start": 1646.68, "end": 1647.06, "word": " volume", "probability": 0.95947265625}, {"start": 1647.06, "end": 1647.42, "word": " حجم", "probability": 0.9269205729166666}, {"start": 1647.42, "end": 1647.92, "word": " التداول", "probability": 0.9539388020833334}, {"start": 1647.92, "end": 1649.18, "word": " okay", "probability": 0.60009765625}, {"start": 1649.18, "end": 1651.38, "word": " and", "probability": 0.78955078125}, {"start": 1651.38, "end": 1651.7, "word": " based", "probability": 0.9482421875}, {"start": 1651.7, "end": 1651.9, "word": " on", "probability": 0.966796875}, {"start": 1651.9, "end": 1652.38, "word": " this", "probability": 0.96484375}, {"start": 1652.38, "end": 1654.0, "word": " understanding", "probability": 0.771484375}, {"start": 1654.0, "end": 1654.66, "word": " or", "probability": 0.921875}, {"start": 1654.66, "end": 1654.98, "word": " based", "probability": 0.94091796875}, {"start": 1654.98, "end": 1655.24, "word": " on", "probability": 0.96728515625}, {"start": 1655.24, "end": 1655.56, "word": " the", "probability": 0.89794921875}, {"start": 1655.56, "end": 1655.96, "word": " weak", "probability": 0.986328125}, {"start": 1655.96, "end": 1656.26, "word": " form", "probability": 0.73486328125}, {"start": 1656.26, "end": 1656.8, "word": " hypothesis", "probability": 0.72216796875}, {"start": 1656.8, "end": 1658.64, "word": " it", "probability": 0.95361328125}, {"start": 1658.64, "end": 1659.18, "word": " means", "probability": 0.939453125}, {"start": 1659.18, "end": 1659.66, "word": " there", "probability": 0.88623046875}, {"start": 1659.66, "end": 1659.8, "word": " is", "probability": 0.91259765625}, {"start": 1659.8, "end": 1660.12, "word": " no", "probability": 0.90380859375}, {"start": 1660.12, "end": 1660.64, "word": " worth", "probability": 0.338134765625}, {"start": 1660.64, "end": 1660.88, "word": " to", "probability": 0.97314453125}, {"start": 1660.88, "end": 1661.12, "word": " use", "probability": 0.880859375}, {"start": 1661.12, "end": 1661.24, "word": " the", "probability": 0.89404296875}, {"start": 1661.24, "end": 1661.6, "word": " chart", "probability": 0.392333984375}, {"start": 1661.6, "end": 1663.86, "word": " مافيش", "probability": 0.6906331380208334}, {"start": 1663.86, "end": 1665.98, "word": " اهمية", "probability": 0.7801920572916666}, {"start": 1665.98, "end": 1666.64, "word": " لاستخدام", "probability": 0.92607421875}, {"start": 1666.64, "end": 1666.9, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.9609375}, {"start": 1666.9, "end": 1667.46, "word": " chart", "probability": 0.87255859375}, {"start": 1667.46, "end": 1668.32, "word": " اللي", "probability": 0.87255859375}, {"start": 1668.32, "end": 1668.46, "word": " هو", "probability": 0.99169921875}, {"start": 1668.46, "end": 1668.92, "word": " الرسومات", "probability": 0.890380859375}, {"start": 1668.92, "end": 1669.36, "word": " البيانية", "probability": 0.7237548828125}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 64, "seek": 169343, "start": 1670.29, "end": 1693.43, "text": "some people they they think mistakenly think that the weak form hypothesis not reflected the historical prices ده ناس بيتقضوا أنه ما ال ال weak form مابيعكسش ال historical prices but the weak form hypothesis is reflected the weak form prices", "tokens": [23189, 561, 436, 436, 519, 21333, 356, 519, 300, 264, 5336, 1254, 17291, 406, 15502, 264, 8584, 7901, 11778, 3224, 8717, 32277, 4724, 36081, 4587, 11242, 14407, 14739, 3224, 19446, 2423, 2423, 5336, 1254, 3714, 16758, 40228, 4117, 3794, 8592, 2423, 8584, 7901, 457, 264, 5336, 1254, 17291, 307, 15502, 264, 5336, 1254, 7901], "avg_logprob": -0.23778409090909092, "compression_ratio": 1.68944099378882, "no_speech_prob": 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"probability": 0.75927734375}, {"start": 1676.25, "end": 1677.91, "word": " not", "probability": 0.73876953125}, {"start": 1677.91, "end": 1678.37, "word": " reflected", "probability": 0.9482421875}, {"start": 1678.37, "end": 1678.71, "word": " the", "probability": 0.87841796875}, {"start": 1678.71, "end": 1679.19, "word": " historical", "probability": 0.91162109375}, {"start": 1679.19, "end": 1679.75, "word": " prices", "probability": 0.76220703125}, {"start": 1679.75, "end": 1681.25, "word": " ده", "probability": 0.676513671875}, {"start": 1681.25, "end": 1681.49, "word": " ناس", "probability": 0.942138671875}, {"start": 1681.49, "end": 1682.03, "word": " بيتقضوا", "probability": 0.688232421875}, {"start": 1682.03, "end": 1682.27, "word": " أنه", "probability": 0.72119140625}, {"start": 1682.27, "end": 1682.41, "word": " ما", "probability": 0.354736328125}, {"start": 1682.41, "end": 1683.11, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.96533203125}, {"start": 1683.11, "end": 1683.39, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.80419921875}, {"start": 1683.39, "end": 1683.65, "word": " weak", "probability": 0.95166015625}, {"start": 1683.65, "end": 1684.01, "word": " form", "probability": 0.9013671875}, {"start": 1684.01, "end": 1684.61, "word": " مابيعكسش", "probability": 0.8828125}, {"start": 1684.61, "end": 1684.73, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.94775390625}, {"start": 1684.73, "end": 1685.03, "word": " historical", "probability": 0.91845703125}, {"start": 1685.03, "end": 1685.55, "word": " prices", "probability": 0.8916015625}, {"start": 1685.55, "end": 1687.31, "word": " but", "probability": 0.66162109375}, {"start": 1687.31, "end": 1688.57, "word": " the", "probability": 0.880859375}, {"start": 1688.57, "end": 1688.81, "word": " weak", "probability": 0.97900390625}, {"start": 1688.81, "end": 1689.01, "word": " form", "probability": 0.83056640625}, {"start": 1689.01, "end": 1689.53, "word": " hypothesis", "probability": 0.861328125}, {"start": 1689.53, "end": 1690.33, "word": " is", "probability": 0.9453125}, {"start": 1690.33, "end": 1690.77, "word": " reflected", "probability": 0.9619140625}, {"start": 1690.77, "end": 1691.19, "word": " the", "probability": 0.88232421875}, {"start": 1691.19, "end": 1692.65, "word": " weak", "probability": 0.58642578125}, {"start": 1692.65, "end": 1692.99, "word": " form", "probability": 0.87646484375}, {"start": 1692.99, "end": 1693.43, "word": " prices", "probability": 0.87109375}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 65, "seek": 172344, "start": 1695.6, "end": 1723.44, "text": "Based on this and the people who believe that the market is inefficient mistakenly use the charts بستخدموا ال charts I will give you example of these charts يعني خليني أعطيكم مثال على هاي ال charts يعني ناس خطأ بعتقدوا أن ال weak form مبنية على ال chart", "tokens": [33, 1937, 322, 341, 293, 264, 561, 567, 1697, 300, 264, 2142, 307, 43495, 21333, 356, 764, 264, 17767, 4724, 14851, 9778, 40448, 14407, 2423, 17767, 286, 486, 976, 291, 1365, 295, 613, 17767, 37495, 22653, 16490, 1211, 9957, 1829, 5551, 3615, 9566, 1829, 24793, 50113, 6027, 15844, 8032, 47302, 2423, 17767, 37495, 22653, 8717, 32277, 16490, 9566, 10721, 4724, 34268, 28543, 14407, 14739, 2423, 5336, 1254, 3714, 3555, 1863, 10632, 15844, 2423, 6927], "avg_logprob": -0.1812500003973643, "compression_ratio": 1.4657534246575343, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 1695.6, "end": 1696.04, "word": "Based", "probability": 0.5655517578125}, {"start": 1696.04, "end": 1696.3, "word": " on", "probability": 0.95947265625}, {"start": 1696.3, "end": 1696.98, "word": " this", "probability": 0.62548828125}, {"start": 1696.98, "end": 1698.22, "word": " and", "probability": 0.85400390625}, {"start": 1698.22, "end": 1699.54, "word": " the", "probability": 0.66552734375}, {"start": 1699.54, "end": 1700.72, "word": " people", "probability": 0.96875}, {"start": 1700.72, "end": 1701.02, "word": " who", "probability": 0.947265625}, {"start": 1701.02, "end": 1702.22, "word": " believe", "probability": 0.7802734375}, {"start": 1702.22, "end": 1702.42, "word": " that", "probability": 0.927734375}, {"start": 1702.42, "end": 1702.6, "word": " the", "probability": 0.85791015625}, {"start": 1702.6, "end": 1702.84, "word": " market", "probability": 0.9072265625}, {"start": 1702.84, "end": 1703.08, "word": " is", "probability": 0.96240234375}, {"start": 1703.08, "end": 1703.64, "word": " inefficient", "probability": 0.9375}, {"start": 1703.64, "end": 1706.32, "word": " mistakenly", "probability": 0.88525390625}, {"start": 1706.32, "end": 1706.56, "word": " use", "probability": 0.7021484375}, {"start": 1706.56, "end": 1706.68, "word": " the", "probability": 0.91015625}, {"start": 1706.68, "end": 1707.12, "word": " charts", "probability": 0.9306640625}, {"start": 1707.12, "end": 1708.26, "word": " بستخدموا", "probability": 0.790576171875}, {"start": 1708.26, "end": 1708.3, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.93408203125}, {"start": 1708.3, "end": 1708.58, "word": " charts", "probability": 0.9794921875}, {"start": 1708.58, "end": 1709.6, "word": " I", "probability": 0.857421875}, {"start": 1709.6, "end": 1709.9, "word": " will", "probability": 0.919921875}, {"start": 1709.9, "end": 1710.1, "word": " give", "probability": 0.90234375}, {"start": 1710.1, "end": 1710.18, "word": " you", "probability": 0.939453125}, {"start": 1710.18, "end": 1710.48, "word": " example", "probability": 0.701171875}, {"start": 1710.48, "end": 1710.66, "word": " of", "probability": 0.9677734375}, {"start": 1710.66, "end": 1710.82, "word": " these", "probability": 0.544921875}, {"start": 1710.82, "end": 1711.28, "word": " charts", "probability": 0.91845703125}, {"start": 1711.28, "end": 1711.88, "word": " يعني", "probability": 0.870361328125}, {"start": 1711.88, "end": 1712.16, "word": " خليني", "probability": 0.81103515625}, {"start": 1712.16, "end": 1712.46, "word": " أعطيكم", "probability": 0.931640625}, {"start": 1712.46, "end": 1712.8, "word": " مثال", "probability": 0.98828125}, {"start": 1712.8, "end": 1712.98, "word": " على", "probability": 0.90771484375}, {"start": 1712.98, "end": 1713.16, "word": " هاي", "probability": 0.74755859375}, {"start": 1713.16, "end": 1713.24, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.98046875}, {"start": 1713.24, "end": 1713.64, "word": " charts", "probability": 0.98046875}, {"start": 1713.64, "end": 1715.14, "word": " يعني", "probability": 0.9580078125}, {"start": 1715.14, "end": 1715.38, "word": " ناس", "probability": 0.92041015625}, {"start": 1715.38, "end": 1715.74, "word": " خطأ", "probability": 0.9383138020833334}, {"start": 1715.74, "end": 1716.42, "word": " بعتقدوا", "probability": 0.9068603515625}, {"start": 1716.42, "end": 1716.64, "word": " أن", "probability": 0.48388671875}, {"start": 1716.64, "end": 1716.92, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.97802734375}, {"start": 1716.92, "end": 1717.66, "word": " weak", "probability": 0.736328125}, {"start": 1717.66, "end": 1718.18, "word": " form", "probability": 0.876953125}, {"start": 1718.18, "end": 1721.96, "word": " مبنية", "probability": 0.900634765625}, {"start": 1721.96, "end": 1722.14, "word": " على", "probability": 0.91796875}, {"start": 1722.14, "end": 1722.82, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.98779296875}, {"start": 1722.82, "end": 1723.44, "word": " chart", "probability": 0.35888671875}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 66, "seek": 175266, "start": 1724.64, "end": 1752.66, "text": "it means we can predict يعني احنا زي ما انتوا شايفين مثلا بال .. بالشكل بالشكل هذا ان احنا we can use the resistance and support مفهوم ال resistance وال support مفهوم ال resistance وال support اللي هو نقاط الدعم والمقاومة يعني مثلا احنا لو اجينا", "tokens": [270, 1355, 321, 393, 6069, 37495, 22653, 1975, 5016, 8315, 30767, 1829, 19446, 16472, 2655, 14407, 13412, 995, 33911, 9957, 50113, 15040, 20666, 4386, 20666, 8592, 28820, 20666, 8592, 28820, 23758, 16472, 1975, 5016, 8315, 321, 393, 764, 264, 7335, 293, 1406, 3714, 5172, 3224, 20498, 2423, 7335, 16070, 1406, 3714, 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{"start": 1728.48, "end": 1728.56, "word": " ما", "probability": 0.96728515625}, {"start": 1728.56, "end": 1728.76, "word": " انتوا", "probability": 0.8583984375}, {"start": 1728.76, "end": 1729.1, "word": " شايفين", "probability": 0.989501953125}, {"start": 1729.1, "end": 1729.46, "word": " مثلا", "probability": 0.837158203125}, {"start": 1729.46, "end": 1729.8, "word": " بال", "probability": 0.9833984375}, {"start": 1729.8, "end": 1730.24, "word": " ..", "probability": 0.62890625}, {"start": 1730.24, "end": 1731.04, "word": " بالشكل", "probability": 0.9840494791666666}, {"start": 1731.04, "end": 1734.64, "word": " بالشكل", "probability": 0.92431640625}, {"start": 1734.64, "end": 1734.86, "word": " هذا", "probability": 0.662109375}, {"start": 1734.86, "end": 1734.98, "word": " ان", "probability": 0.7119140625}, {"start": 1734.98, "end": 1735.36, "word": " احنا", "probability": 0.8888346354166666}, {"start": 1735.36, "end": 1737.08, "word": " we", "probability": 0.88330078125}, {"start": 1737.08, "end": 1737.4, "word": " can", "probability": 0.9716796875}, {"start": 1737.4, "end": 1737.78, "word": " use", "probability": 0.90478515625}, {"start": 1737.78, "end": 1738.1, "word": " the", "probability": 0.89111328125}, {"start": 1738.1, "end": 1739.52, "word": " resistance", "probability": 0.95068359375}, {"start": 1739.52, "end": 1740.26, "word": " and", "probability": 0.96337890625}, {"start": 1740.26, "end": 1740.88, "word": " support", "probability": 0.9736328125}, {"start": 1740.88, "end": 1741.92, "word": " مفهوم", "probability": 0.920166015625}, {"start": 1741.92, "end": 1742.04, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.8681640625}, {"start": 1742.04, "end": 1742.34, "word": " resistance", "probability": 0.9697265625}, {"start": 1742.34, "end": 1742.54, "word": " وال", "probability": 0.7119140625}, {"start": 1742.54, "end": 1742.98, "word": " support", "probability": 0.97509765625}, {"start": 1742.98, "end": 1743.9, "word": " مفهوم", "probability": 0.9365234375}, {"start": 1743.9, "end": 1744.0, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.93017578125}, {"start": 1744.0, "end": 1744.3, "word": " resistance", "probability": 0.99169921875}, {"start": 1744.3, "end": 1744.56, "word": " وال", "probability": 0.921875}, {"start": 1744.56, "end": 1744.9, "word": " support", "probability": 0.9794921875}, {"start": 1744.9, "end": 1745.1, "word": " اللي", "probability": 0.963134765625}, {"start": 1745.1, "end": 1745.24, "word": " هو", "probability": 0.978515625}, {"start": 1745.24, "end": 1745.56, "word": " نقاط", "probability": 0.9659830729166666}, {"start": 1745.56, "end": 1745.9, "word": " الدعم", "probability": 0.98779296875}, {"start": 1745.9, "end": 1746.58, "word": " والمقاومة", "probability": 0.9082845052083334}, {"start": 1746.58, "end": 1750.74, "word": " يعني", "probability": 0.949462890625}, {"start": 1750.74, "end": 1751.08, "word": " مثلا", "probability": 0.99365234375}, {"start": 1751.08, "end": 1751.52, "word": " احنا", "probability": 0.9879557291666666}, {"start": 1751.52, "end": 1752.22, "word": " لو", "probability": 0.98779296875}, {"start": 1752.22, "end": 1752.66, "word": " اجينا", "probability": 0.84130859375}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 67, "seek": 176974, "start": 1753.82, "end": 1769.74, "text": "أخدنا chart like this and based on the weak form hypothesis وبناء على ال weak form hypothesis we can predict the prices بس هذا اعتقاد خاطر", "tokens": [10721, 9778, 3215, 8315, 6927, 411, 341, 293, 2361, 322, 264, 5336, 1254, 17291, 46599, 1863, 16606, 15844, 2423, 5336, 1254, 17291, 321, 393, 6069, 264, 7901, 4724, 3794, 23758, 1975, 34268, 4587, 18513, 16490, 41193, 2288], "avg_logprob": -0.20795640976805435, "compression_ratio": 1.2352941176470589, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 1753.82, "end": 1754.34, "word": "أخدنا", "probability": 0.8238525390625}, {"start": 1754.34, "end": 1754.66, "word": " chart", "probability": 0.66357421875}, {"start": 1754.66, "end": 1754.92, "word": " like", "probability": 0.876953125}, {"start": 1754.92, "end": 1759.24, "word": " this", "probability": 0.97265625}, {"start": 1759.24, "end": 1760.64, "word": " and", "probability": 0.666015625}, {"start": 1760.64, "end": 1760.94, "word": " based", "probability": 0.9609375}, {"start": 1760.94, "end": 1761.08, "word": " on", "probability": 0.96484375}, {"start": 1761.08, "end": 1761.22, "word": " the", "probability": 0.81201171875}, {"start": 1761.22, "end": 1761.42, "word": " weak", "probability": 0.974609375}, {"start": 1761.42, "end": 1761.66, "word": " form", "probability": 0.72119140625}, {"start": 1761.66, "end": 1762.3, "word": " hypothesis", "probability": 0.72216796875}, {"start": 1762.3, "end": 1763.42, "word": " وبناء", "probability": 0.7412109375}, {"start": 1763.42, "end": 1763.58, "word": " على", "probability": 0.7939453125}, {"start": 1763.58, "end": 1763.74, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.71826171875}, {"start": 1763.74, "end": 1763.9, "word": " weak", "probability": 0.95849609375}, {"start": 1763.9, "end": 1764.1, "word": " form", "probability": 0.71923828125}, {"start": 1764.1, "end": 1764.68, "word": " hypothesis", "probability": 0.85498046875}, {"start": 1764.68, "end": 1765.76, "word": " we", "probability": 0.68798828125}, {"start": 1765.76, "end": 1766.06, "word": " can", "probability": 0.96142578125}, {"start": 1766.06, "end": 1766.44, "word": " predict", "probability": 0.908203125}, {"start": 1766.44, "end": 1766.6, "word": " the", "probability": 0.9248046875}, {"start": 1766.6, "end": 1767.1, "word": " prices", "probability": 0.873046875}, {"start": 1767.1, "end": 1768.42, "word": " بس", "probability": 0.93896484375}, {"start": 1768.42, "end": 1768.64, "word": " هذا", "probability": 0.68994140625}, {"start": 1768.64, "end": 1769.38, "word": " اعتقاد", "probability": 0.841796875}, {"start": 1769.38, "end": 1769.74, "word": " خاطر", "probability": 0.8125813802083334}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 68, "seek": 180048, "start": 1771.22, "end": 1800.48, "text": "الناس بيعتقدوا غلط لكن ال weak form hypothesis is not reflected the past prices مابتعكسش ال .. so it is not worth to use this فهدول الناس the only chartist بيعتقدوا the prices move with a channel الأسعار بتمشي بقناع this channel has a resistance R and support S نقاط ال resistance", "tokens": [6027, 8315, 3794, 4724, 1829, 34268, 28543, 14407, 32771, 1211, 9566, 44381, 2423, 5336, 1254, 17291, 307, 406, 15502, 264, 1791, 7901, 3714, 16758, 2655, 3615, 4117, 3794, 8592, 2423, 4386, 370, 309, 307, 406, 3163, 281, 764, 341, 6156, 3224, 3215, 12610, 2423, 8315, 3794, 264, 787, 6927, 468, 4724, 1829, 34268, 28543, 14407, 264, 7901, 1286, 365, 257, 2269, 16247, 3794, 3615, 9640, 4724, 39237, 8592, 1829, 4724, 4587, 8315, 3615, 341, 2269, 575, 257, 7335, 497, 293, 1406, 318, 8717, 4587, 41193, 2423, 7335], "avg_logprob": -0.19318181377920238, "compression_ratio": 1.4978723404255319, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 1771.22, "end": 1771.54, "word": "الناس", 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الشموع اليابانية لو احنا طلعنا على الشموع مثلا خليني اريكم في شموع اليابانية مثلا الشموع اليابانية مثلا كيف how it works مثلا هي عندنا كتاب كامل بس بالشموع اليابانية okay there is a big piece of work", "tokens": [48354, 23774, 37495, 22653, 25124, 2304, 45367, 45595, 16758, 7649, 10632, 45164, 1975, 5016, 8315, 23032, 1211, 3615, 8315, 15844, 25124, 2304, 45367, 50113, 15040, 16490, 1211, 9957, 1829, 1975, 16572, 24793, 8978, 13412, 2304, 45367, 45595, 16758, 7649, 10632, 50113, 15040, 25124, 2304, 45367, 45595, 16758, 7649, 10632, 50113, 15040, 9122, 33911, 577, 309, 1985, 50113, 15040, 39896, 43242, 8315, 9122, 2655, 16758, 9122, 10943, 1211, 4724, 3794, 20666, 8592, 2304, 45367, 45595, 16758, 7649, 10632, 1392, 456, 307, 257, 955, 2522, 295, 589], "avg_logprob": -0.12972383131814558, "compression_ratio": 1.9130434782608696, "no_speech_prob": 3.2186508178710938e-06, "words": [{"start": 1939.36, "end": 1939.82, "word": "Japanese", "probability": 0.7177734375}, {"start": 1939.82, 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understanding", "probability": 0.798828125}, {"start": 2037.47, "end": 2037.71, "word": " these", "probability": 0.81689453125}, {"start": 2037.71, "end": 2038.09, "word": " things", "probability": 0.90087890625}, {"start": 2038.09, "end": 2039.85, "word": " so", "probability": 0.70361328125}, {"start": 2039.85, "end": 2040.33, "word": " you", "probability": 0.97021484375}, {"start": 2040.33, "end": 2040.49, "word": " can", "probability": 0.947265625}, {"start": 2040.49, "end": 2040.69, "word": " take", "probability": 0.8544921875}, {"start": 2040.69, "end": 2040.79, "word": " it", "probability": 0.96875}, {"start": 2040.79, "end": 2041.03, "word": " free", "probability": 0.9443359375}, {"start": 2041.03, "end": 2041.39, "word": " here", "probability": 0.7890625}, {"start": 2041.39, "end": 2042.45, "word": " انتوا", "probability": 0.7557779947916666}, {"start": 2042.45, "end": 2042.79, "word": " ماخدينها", "probability": 0.98046875}, {"start": 2042.79, "end": 2043.19, "word": " 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"temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 80, "seek": 210759, "start": 2078.37, "end": 2107.59, "text": "كما قلت عندما تنظر إلى الأسعار يجب أن تنظر إلى اتنين أشياء الأسعار ومتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات المتداولات الم", "tokens": [4117, 15042, 12174, 1211, 2655, 43242, 15042, 6055, 1863, 19913, 2288, 30731, 16247, 3794, 3615, 9640, 7251, 7435, 3555, 14739, 6055, 1863, 19913, 2288, 30731, 1975, 2655, 1863, 9957, 5551, 8592, 1829, 16606, 16247, 3794, 3615, 9640, 4032, 2304, 2655, 28259, 12610, 9307, 9673, 2655, 28259, 12610, 9307, 9673, 2655, 28259, 12610, 9307, 9673, 2655, 28259, 12610, 9307, 9673, 2655, 28259, 12610, 9307, 9673, 2655, 28259, 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"probability": 0.833984375}, {"start": 2246.75, "end": 2247.29, "word": " hypothesis", "probability": 0.896484375}, {"start": 2247.29, "end": 2248.99, "word": " is", "probability": 0.87890625}, {"start": 2248.99, "end": 2249.25, "word": " not", "probability": 0.9326171875}, {"start": 2249.25, "end": 2249.89, "word": " reflected", "probability": 0.95703125}, {"start": 2249.89, "end": 2250.55, "word": " the", "probability": 0.58251953125}, {"start": 2250.55, "end": 2251.09, "word": " fundamental", "probability": 0.79052734375}, {"start": 2251.09, "end": 2252.23, "word": " information", "probability": 0.9130859375}, {"start": 2252.23, "end": 2253.61, "word": " and", "probability": 0.96337890625}, {"start": 2253.61, "end": 2254.63, "word": " the", "probability": 0.8740234375}, {"start": 2254.63, "end": 2254.93, "word": " private", "probability": 0.87890625}, {"start": 2254.93, "end": 2255.51, "word": " information", "probability": 0.88330078125}, {"start": 2255.51, "end": 2256.19, "word": 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"word": " الشكل", "probability": 0.993896484375}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 87, "seek": 229929, "start": 2271.27, "end": 2299.29, "text": "هذه ضعيفة وهذه أقل قوية وهذه قوية السوق الضعيف هنا هو فقط لأسعار التاريخ وهو ليس موضوع أساسي الأسعار وليس موضوع الشخصيات أو الشخصيات", "tokens": [3224, 24192, 48812, 3615, 33911, 3660, 37037, 24192, 5551, 4587, 1211, 12174, 2407, 10632, 4032, 3224, 24192, 12174, 2407, 10632, 21136, 30543, 6024, 114, 3615, 33911, 34105, 31439, 6156, 47432, 5296, 10721, 3794, 3615, 9640, 16712, 9640, 1829, 9778, 37037, 2407, 32239, 3794, 3714, 2407, 11242, 45367, 5551, 3794, 32277, 1829, 16247, 3794, 3615, 9640, 4032, 20292, 3794, 3714, 2407, 11242, 45367, 25124, 9778, 9381, 1829, 9307, 34051, 25124, 9778, 9381, 1829, 9307], "avg_logprob": -0.5363175796495901, "compression_ratio": 1.8828125, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 2271.27, "end": 2271.69, "word": "هذه", "probability": 0.5906982421875}, {"start": 2271.69, "end": 2272.51, "word": " ضعيفة", "probability": 0.65008544921875}, {"start": 2272.51, "end": 2274.63, "word": " وهذه", "probability": 0.673095703125}, {"start": 2274.63, "end": 2274.85, "word": " أقل", "probability": 0.31134033203125}, {"start": 2274.85, "end": 2275.31, "word": " قوية", "probability": 0.7462565104166666}, {"start": 2275.31, "end": 2277.69, "word": " وهذه", "probability": 0.6870930989583334}, {"start": 2277.69, "end": 2278.33, "word": " قوية", "probability": 0.8922526041666666}, {"start": 2278.33, "end": 2280.61, "word": " السوق", "probability": 0.5421142578125}, {"start": 2280.61, "end": 2280.81, "word": " الضعيف", "probability": 0.79644775390625}, {"start": 2280.81, "end": 2281.57, "word": " هنا", "probability": 0.96435546875}, {"start": 2281.57, "end": 2283.41, "word": " هو", "probability": 0.3994140625}, {"start": 2283.41, "end": 2284.31, "word": " فقط", "probability": 0.827880859375}, {"start": 2284.31, "end": 2284.83, "word": " لأسعار", "probability": 0.571728515625}, {"start": 2284.83, "end": 2285.19, "word": " التاريخ", "probability": 0.89013671875}, {"start": 2285.19, "end": 2288.61, "word": " وهو", "probability": 0.516357421875}, {"start": 2288.61, "end": 2288.79, "word": " ليس", "probability": 0.80322265625}, {"start": 2288.79, "end": 2289.27, "word": " موضوع", "probability": 0.413787841796875}, {"start": 2289.27, "end": 2290.63, "word": " أساسي", "probability": 0.69610595703125}, {"start": 2290.63, "end": 2293.93, "word": " الأسعار", "probability": 0.8372802734375}, {"start": 2293.93, "end": 2295.41, "word": " وليس", "probability": 0.7744140625}, {"start": 2295.41, "end": 2296.67, "word": " موضوع", "probability": 0.943115234375}, {"start": 2296.67, "end": 2297.71, "word": " الشخصيات", "probability": 0.568896484375}, {"start": 2297.71, "end": 2298.73, "word": " أو", "probability": 0.912109375}, {"start": 2298.73, "end": 2299.29, "word": " الشخصيات", "probability": 0.6159912109375}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 88, "seek": 232704, "start": 2303.06, "end": 2327.04, "text": "Okay يعني هلأ ال weak form بس بعكس ال historical prices So anyone has fundamental prices he or she can get benefit in the weak form markets يعني أي واحد عنده fundamental .. معلومات fundamental فهو هيستفيد كتير احنا بنجح عند هذا الحد و اللي خائل جاي بنحكي على semi-strong و بنحكي على strong market hypothesis", "tokens": [8297, 37495, 22653, 8032, 1211, 10721, 2423, 5336, 1254, 4724, 3794, 45030, 4117, 3794, 2423, 8584, 7901, 407, 2878, 575, 8088, 7901, 415, 420, 750, 393, 483, 5121, 294, 264, 5336, 1254, 8383, 37495, 22653, 36632, 36764, 24401, 43242, 3224, 8088, 4386, 20449, 1211, 20498, 9307, 8088, 6156, 3224, 2407, 39896, 14851, 5172, 25708, 9122, 2655, 13546, 1975, 5016, 8315, 44945, 7435, 5016, 43242, 23758, 21542, 3215, 4032, 13672, 1829, 16490, 16373, 1211, 10874, 47302, 44945, 5016, 4117, 1829, 15844, 12909, 12, 28063, 4032, 44945, 5016, 4117, 1829, 15844, 2068, 2142, 17291], "avg_logprob": -0.2417674679909983, "compression_ratio": 1.5984251968503937, "no_speech_prob": 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{"start": 2307.74, "end": 2308.36, "word": " anyone", "probability": 0.8798828125}, {"start": 2308.36, "end": 2309.68, "word": " has", "probability": 0.79736328125}, {"start": 2309.68, "end": 2310.42, "word": " fundamental", "probability": 0.79638671875}, {"start": 2310.42, "end": 2311.08, "word": " prices", "probability": 0.861328125}, {"start": 2311.08, "end": 2311.96, "word": " he", "probability": 0.615234375}, {"start": 2311.96, "end": 2312.18, "word": " or", "probability": 0.96435546875}, {"start": 2312.18, "end": 2312.32, "word": " she", "probability": 0.94970703125}, {"start": 2312.32, "end": 2312.56, "word": " can", "probability": 0.95263671875}, {"start": 2312.56, "end": 2312.78, "word": " get", "probability": 0.92236328125}, {"start": 2312.78, "end": 2313.2, "word": " benefit", "probability": 0.7958984375}, {"start": 2313.2, "end": 2313.36, "word": " in", "probability": 0.92236328125}, {"start": 2313.36, "end": 2313.48, "word": " the", "probability": 0.85400390625}, {"start": 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{"start": 2324.56, "end": 2324.7, "word": " على", "probability": 0.86376953125}, {"start": 2324.7, "end": 2324.96, "word": " semi", "probability": 0.251708984375}, {"start": 2324.96, "end": 2325.3, "word": "-strong", "probability": 0.715087890625}, {"start": 2325.3, "end": 2325.42, "word": " و", "probability": 0.9736328125}, {"start": 2325.42, "end": 2325.62, "word": " بنحكي", "probability": 0.9473876953125}, {"start": 2325.62, "end": 2325.74, "word": " على", "probability": 0.861328125}, {"start": 2325.74, "end": 2326.16, "word": " strong", "probability": 0.9609375}, {"start": 2326.16, "end": 2326.6, "word": " market", "probability": 0.9853515625}, {"start": 2326.6, "end": 2327.04, "word": " hypothesis", "probability": 0.375732421875}], "temperature": 1.0}], "language": "ar", "language_probability": 1.0, "duration": 2327.98625, "duration_after_vad": 2183.833124999992}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/lbabGU7OGiY.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/lbabGU7OGiY.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..38e4d3b99eb67e7eeaed96f75b53ff98bb56e438
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/lbabGU7OGiY.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1639 @@
+1
+00:00:20,720 --> 00:00:25,760
+طب إحنا اليوم المحاضرة لها علاقة في الـ .. اللي 
+
+2
+00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:29,220
+إحنا حكيناها المرة الفاتت بموضوع الـ treasure bills
+
+3
+00:00:29,220 --> 00:00:34,160
+and how we convert the discount rates into prices
+
+4
+00:00:34,160 --> 00:00:39,250
+لأنه في الـ financial markets ما بيعرضوش الأسعار as
+
+5
+00:00:39,250 --> 00:00:43,750
+you know يعني مثلاً سعر ألف دولار ألفين دولار هذا
+
+6
+00:00:43,750 --> 00:00:47,690
+ما بيُعرضوهاش وكمان و أما نحكي عن الـ bonds prices
+
+7
+00:00:47,690 --> 00:00:51,490
+هنجد تسعير الـ prices بطريقة بتختلف عن اللي إحنا
+
+8
+00:00:51,490 --> 00:00:56,850
+بنعرفها فإحنا مهمتنا إنه how to change the
+
+9
+00:00:56,850 --> 00:01:03,050
+financial market prices Okay into prices that we
+
+10
+00:01:03,050 --> 00:01:06,430
+understand الأسعار إحنا بنفهمها زي ما إحنا حكينا
+
+11
+00:01:06,430 --> 00:01:08,790
+المرة الفاتت إنه لو طلع .. طلعنا على الـ treasury
+
+12
+00:01:08,790 --> 00:01:12,970
+bills treasury bills الموجودة هنا نكبرها شوية طبعاً
+
+13
+00:01:12,970 --> 00:01:20,470
+لو طلعنا عليهم الأسعار في
+
+14
+00:01:20,470 --> 00:01:25,970
+عند الـ maturity okay و عند الـ maturity days to
+
+15
+00:01:25,970 --> 00:01:28,110
+maturity اللي هو ثمانية يعني إيش ثمانية ثماني
+
+16
+00:01:28,110 --> 00:01:34,560
+الأيام okay وعندنا الـ bid 0055 خدوا بالكم this is
+
+17
+00:01:34,560 --> 00:01:38,880
+discount what it means discount خاصة هذه كنسبة
+
+18
+00:01:38,880 --> 00:01:43,340
+مقوّمة ادروا بالكم as a percentage مش هنعيد هذا
+
+19
+00:01:43,340 --> 00:01:45,280
+الكلام بالامتحان لما يصير عندكم امتحان أنا مش
+
+20
+00:01:45,280 --> 00:01:47,700
+هحكيلكم هذا الكلام because you already know this
+
+21
+00:01:47,700 --> 00:01:53,840
+لأن أنتو أصلاً بتعرفوا هذا الكلام الـ ask 005
+
+22
+00:01:53,840 --> 00:01:59,000
+unchanged و الـ 051 اللي هو ask killed you can do
+
+23
+00:01:59,000 --> 00:02:03,040
+the reverse يعني ممكن أنا ما أعطيكم مش أرقام هان و
+
+24
+00:02:03,040 --> 00:02:06,340
+بس أعطيكم الـ asking و أنتو ترجعوا برجوعه هناخد
+
+25
+00:02:06,340 --> 00:02:13,840
+سؤال آخر كيف نرجع برجوعه okay فلنحسب الـ 0055 نحولها
+
+26
+00:02:13,840 --> 00:02:18,860
+لـ price نحولها لسعر و هذا المفروض كان معاكم واجب
+
+27
+00:02:18,860 --> 00:02:22,940
+لو حد حل خطأ مش مشكلة أجيبني الواجب على الأقل إنه
+
+28
+00:02:22,940 --> 00:02:28,550
+في محاولة لكن الغلط إنه إحنا ما نيجيش بالمرة أو
+
+29
+00:02:28,550 --> 00:02:32,810
+ما نيجيش معنى الواجب طبعاً بعد ما أنا أعطيتك الواجب
+
+30
+00:02:32,810 --> 00:02:36,370
+هحل جزء منه بحيث إنه تتأكدوا إنه كيف الطريقة الصح
+
+31
+00:02:36,370 --> 00:02:42,410
+للحل طبعاً طيب أنا زي ما أنتو شايفين اللي هو zero
+
+32
+00:02:42,410 --> 00:02:47,150
+five five نحولها لإيش لـ price طبعاً لو إحنا روحنا
+
+33
+00:02:47,150 --> 00:02:49,930
+على الـ excel sheets هاي الـ bit وحكينا zero
+
+34
+00:02:56,380 --> 00:03:02,200
+055 مظبوط طبعاً في الـ X الكتابها point 06 لأنه لازم
+
+35
+00:03:02,200 --> 00:03:08,480
+إحنا نعمل format للـ cell عشان تظهر بدل الـ الـ حاسب
+
+36
+00:03:08,480 --> 00:03:12,380
+يعني لإنه مش هتشوفوا الـ الـ حاسب هتشوفوا هيك okay
+
+37
+00:03:12,380 --> 00:03:20,480
+هاي زي ما تشايفين 055 و هاي 055 طيب عندي إيش
+
+38
+00:03:20,480 --> 00:03:23,140
+معلومات في عندي اللي هو maturity days to maturity
+
+39
+00:03:23,140 --> 00:03:27,860
+مظبوط اللي هو daysto maturity، عدد الأيام، كام الـ
+
+40
+00:03:27,860 --> 00:03:33,220
+days to maturity؟ اللي هو ثمانية، هي ثمانية، ثمان؟
+
+41
+00:03:33,220 --> 00:03:38,820
+إيش معلومات بالزمن غير هيك؟ بالحل؟ الـ bar value،
+
+42
+00:03:38,820 --> 00:03:45,800
+okay، هي الـ bar value حكينا الـ bar value كام؟عشرة
+
+43
+00:03:45,800 --> 00:03:49,740
+ألف هاي عشرة ألف طبعاً أساس إنه أنت مرات you
+
+44
+00:03:49,740 --> 00:03:54,580
+confuse مرات بيصير الواحد يعدّ أصفار صفرين تلاتة
+
+45
+00:03:54,580 --> 00:03:58,700
+أربعة هو حط صفر زيادة حتى في الأقل الحاسبة فتعملوا
+
+46
+00:03:58,700 --> 00:04:02,020
+programming للأقل الحاسبة تعملكم فواصل في الـ Excel
+
+47
+00:04:02,020 --> 00:04:06,200
+كيف نعملها فواصل نعمل format cell okay نحط الـ
+
+48
+00:04:06,200 --> 00:04:12,520
+number ونحط الـ .. اللي هو الـ .. الـ separator ونحط
+
+49
+00:04:12,520 --> 00:04:18,690
+okay فتطلعه مائة ألف which is wrong وهذا كلام نفس
+
+50
+00:04:18,690 --> 00:04:20,970
+الـ function بتشتغل عندكم على الأقل حاسبة فأحد
+
+51
+00:04:20,970 --> 00:04:25,810
+الطالبات حكت لي إنه في غلط في الأقل حاسبة فالغلط مش
+
+52
+00:04:25,810 --> 00:04:29,110
+في الأقل حاسبة الغلط how to use the calculator
+
+53
+00:04:29,110 --> 00:04:35,170
+okay so be careful on this فهذه عشرة حتى لو أنا
+
+54
+00:04:35,170 --> 00:04:41,300
+غلطت الأقل حاسبة هتصلحني الف لأ بس إحنا مش الف عشرة
+
+55
+00:04:41,300 --> 00:04:46,440
+تلاف أنا بالعمضان بغلط عشان أورجيكم الـ options لو
+
+56
+00:04:46,440 --> 00:04:52,240
+إحنا غلطنا شو الـ result هتصير okay هاي عشرة تلاف
+
+57
+00:04:52,240 --> 00:04:59,620
+هاي البيانات واضحة في عند الـ bid خمسة خدوا بأكم
+
+58
+00:04:59,620 --> 00:05:05,490
+خمسة في المية في المية لأن هذه as a percentage كتوي
+
+59
+00:05:05,490 --> 00:05:10,030
+زي ما كتبتلكم وعنا الـ date و maturity ثمان أيام و
+
+60
+00:05:10,030 --> 00:05:13,970
+الـ bar value طيب الـ date و الـ maturity نبدأ بأول
+
+61
+00:05:13,970 --> 00:05:18,270
+واحدة اللي هو الـ bid الـ bid المفروض نقسمه على مية
+
+62
+00:05:18,270 --> 00:05:25,670
+تقسم مية خلصت طبعاً this is confusing بس بنظبطها
+
+63
+00:05:36,460 --> 00:05:38,960
+لأ إحنا ما بنسألك .. إحنا عندك .. هذا كله على
+
+64
+00:05:38,960 --> 00:05:45,580
+الآلة الحاسبة طيب
+
+65
+00:05:45,580 --> 00:05:49,260
+تبع خطوة خطوة معايا بالآلة الحاسبة افتح الآلة
+
+66
+00:05:49,260 --> 00:05:52,700
+الحاسبة تبعتك خطوة خطوة كل البنات افتحوا خطوة خطوة
+
+67
+00:05:52,700 --> 00:05:54,760
+الآلة الحاسبة واتبعوا الخطوات اللي أنا بشتغل
+
+68
+00:05:54,760 --> 00:06:01,240
+عليها عشان تكتشفي وين الغلط اللي عندك اه
+
+69
+00:06:01,240 --> 00:06:08,990
+ليش مقسّمة على مية؟لأن هذه يا بنات لأن هذه الخمسة في
+
+70
+00:06:08,990 --> 00:06:12,050
+المية شايفينها الـ points 0.055 أنا حكيت this is
+
+71
+00:06:12,050 --> 00:06:17,250
+discount this is discount rate نسبة هذه يعني zero
+
+72
+00:06:17,250 --> 00:06:24,530
+five five percent في المية فاهمتي ليش هذا الكلام
+
+73
+00:06:24,530 --> 00:06:28,570
+توقف الذاكرين لما حاططكم percent هيك هذه percent
+
+74
+00:06:28,570 --> 00:06:34,310
+بس في الأسواق المالية يا بنات عشان كل digit كل
+
+75
+00:06:34,310 --> 00:06:38,910
+digit معنيين إن هم ما يظهروش أرقام كتير فيحافظوا
+
+76
+00:06:38,910 --> 00:06:42,590
+على أقل digits ممكن فهم الـ investors they know
+
+77
+00:06:42,590 --> 00:06:46,770
+this percent المستثمرين بيعرفوا إن this is percent
+
+78
+00:06:46,770 --> 00:06:52,530
+فاهمين عليها؟ فـ no need for this فبقول لك إن إحنا
+
+79
+00:06:52,530 --> 00:06:57,610
+ما نلزمنيش هذا خلاص لأن الـ investors عارفين 0.55%
+
+80
+00:06:59,580 --> 00:07:02,620
+فما إحنا مش حاجة .. ما في حاجة نروح نكتب خانة كتير
+
+81
+00:07:02,620 --> 00:07:06,720
+لأن كما شويحة نيجي بالـ bonds في طريقة لكتابة الـ ..
+
+82
+00:07:06,720 --> 00:07:09,240
+الـ .. الـ price بتختلف عن طريقة كتابة الـ treasure
+
+83
+00:07:09,240 --> 00:07:12,260
+bills فعشان هيك أنت لما تشوفوا الجزيرة مثلاً تفتحوا
+
+84
+00:07:12,260 --> 00:07:15,580
+الجزيرة أو تفتحوا الـ CNBC ولا تفتحوا الـ BBC ولا
+
+85
+00:07:15,580 --> 00:07:18,580
+تفتحوا الـ .. الـ channels هذه بتشوفوا الأرقام
+
+86
+00:07:18,580 --> 00:07:22,990
+الموجودة مش أرقام إن الناس هت .. هتفهمها بسرعة يعني
+
+87
+00:07:22,990 --> 00:07:26,610
+مثلاً الـ index انخفض 200 نقطة و ارتفع 300 نقطة what
+
+88
+00:07:26,610 --> 00:07:30,150
+it means الـ investors they know what it means 200
+
+89
+00:07:30,150 --> 00:07:34,010
+points and 300 points and they convert it into
+
+90
+00:07:34,010 --> 00:07:38,350
+their minds into prices هذه 300 نقطة و 200 نقطة
+
+91
+00:07:38,350 --> 00:07:45,450
+بتتحول بثراثهم في مخهم لأسعار فبعد فترة يصير عندكم
+
+92
+00:07:45,450 --> 00:07:49,490
+training يصير المخ على طول يعرف إن الـ 0.55 تتساوي
+
+93
+00:07:49,490 --> 00:07:54,620
+كذا و 033 بتساوي كذا فبيصير على طول لاحظته أنا لما
+
+94
+00:07:54,620 --> 00:07:58,640
+كنت أcheck the assignment ما أقرأش أشوف على طول
+
+95
+00:07:58,640 --> 00:08:03,200
+أقولها غلط صح بدون ما أقرأ لإنه مجرد ما أشوف الرقم
+
+96
+00:08:04,090 --> 00:08:07,410
+عطول أنا بعرف إنه هذا غلط ولا صح لأنه أنا بعرف الـ
+
+97
+00:08:07,410 --> 00:08:10,090
+equation الـ equation معروفة وبالتالي مباشرة إحنا
+
+98
+00:08:10,090 --> 00:08:14,290
+هنعرف إيش الحل هذا الكلام هيصير عند .. عند الطالب
+
+99
+00:08:14,290 --> 00:08:18,950
+بعد ما يحلله هيك أربع خمس ثمارين بيصير مباشرة يعرف
+
+100
+00:08:18,950 --> 00:08:22,910
+إنه هذا صح و هذا غلط حتى في الامتحان إنه لحاله
+
+101
+00:08:22,910 --> 00:08:26,150
+بيخيم الواحد نفسه إنه هذا صح و هذا غلط من شكل
+
+102
+00:08:26,150 --> 00:08:30,990
+الرقم الظاهر تمام؟ okay
+
+103
+00:08:32,710 --> 00:08:38,090
+بنكمل 055 عرفنا ليش زي ما سألت إنه ليش بنقسمها على
+
+104
+00:08:38,090 --> 00:08:50,730
+100 وهي قسمناها على 100، مظبوط؟
+
+105
+00:08:50,730 --> 00:08:55,190
+أيه،
+
+106
+00:08:55,190 --> 00:09:00,090
+يلا قبلوا بالأقل الحسبة 055 تقسيم 100، طلعت معاكم
+
+107
+00:09:00,090 --> 00:09:05,280
+إجابة؟ طلعت نفس الإجابة هذه؟ مين ما طلعتش عنده
+
+108
+00:09:05,280 --> 00:09:08,940
+الإجابة هذه؟
+
+109
+00:09:08,940 --> 00:09:15,260
+3 0 5 5 تقسيم
+
+110
+00:09:15,260 --> 00:09:21,100
+100 صح في حد ما طلعتش معاه الإجابة هذه؟ طب خلصنا،
+
+111
+00:09:21,100 --> 00:09:27,180
+هلأ نيجي للـ 8 نحكي تساوي الثمانية تقسيم 360
+
+112
+00:09:36,450 --> 00:09:44,830
+لحظة طب ثمانية تقسيم قبل
+
+113
+00:09:44,830 --> 00:09:48,790
+القانون لازم نخلص العمليات ثمانية اقسموا ثمانية
+
+114
+00:09:48,790 --> 00:09:55,490
+تقسيم تلاتمية وستين في حد ما عرفش اعملها هذه طب وين
+
+115
+00:09:55,490 --> 00:10:03,200
+المشكلة هذه خلصناها وهذه خلصناها عشان نطبق القانون
+
+116
+00:10:03,200 --> 00:10:13,000
+يعني لازم هدول نخلصهم عشان نطبق القانون okay إيش
+
+117
+00:10:13,000 --> 00:10:18,440
+اللي ما صبطش ثمانية
+
+118
+00:10:18,440 --> 00:10:22,360
+تقسيم إنه
+
+119
+00:10:22,360 --> 00:10:28,160
+هذه zero five five تقسيم مية كم طلع عندك صفر عشان
+
+120
+00:10:28,160 --> 00:10:33,630
+اشتغل الفرقيا انتبه يعني طلع غلط عارفة إيش معنى
+
+121
+00:10:33,630 --> 00:10:41,530
+هذا الكلام؟ انتبه يا بنات ما فيش مشكلة هتا هلا
+
+122
+00:10:41,530 --> 00:10:48,170
+هيطلع الإجابة إذا كان الرقم هيك مثلاً كان الرقم هيك
+
+123
+00:10:48,170 --> 00:10:52,990
+في بعض آلات حاسبة ما بتظهرش هذا الرقم بالشكل هذا
+
+124
+00:10:52,990 --> 00:10:58,800
+فبتروحش بتسوي الآلة الحاسبة بتروح أكم .. أكم خانة
+
+125
+00:10:58,800 --> 00:11:02,260
+عندنا واحدة اثنين تلاتة أربعة خمسة بتعمل خمسة ونص 
+
+126
+00:11:02,260 --> 00:11:06,620
+قص عشرة ناقص واحدة اتنين تلاتة أربعة خمس خانات قص
+
+127
+00:11:06,620 --> 00:11:10,860
+ناقص خمسة لأنه 
+
+128
+00:11:10,860 --> 00:11:17,860
+أخدنا .. أخدنا الخانة لهيك أنا زِدت صفر okay لأ
+
+129
+00:11:17,860 --> 00:11:23,960
+عدوا كم واحد اتنين تلاتة أربعة و هي الخمسة طبعا
+
+130
+00:11:23,960 --> 00:11:27,980
+فهي خمسة و نص و هاي النص اللي وراها بتصير عشرة أس
+
+131
+00:11:27,980 --> 00:11:33,820
+ناقص خمسة طيب أس ثالث بأربعة بنعملها أس ثالث
+
+132
+00:11:33,820 --> 00:11:38,900
+بأربعة صفر صفر صفر خمسة خمسة عدوا كم صفر هان
+
+133
+00:11:38,900 --> 00:11:44,000
+أربعة كم صفر هان تلاتة و بتحولها خمسة و نص أس
+
+134
+00:11:44,000 --> 00:11:50,960
+ناقص أربعة تعلمت كواب مرة لازم تكون دورة في ال ..
+
+135
+00:11:50,960 --> 00:11:56,930
+في الآلة الحاسبة كواب مرة لو حكيت فاصلة صفر صفر صفر
+
+136
+00:11:56,930 --> 00:12:01,630
+صفر صفر عدوهم
+
+137
+00:12:01,630 --> 00:12:08,410
+كيف الآلة الحاسبة هتكتبهم؟ لأ الأخت اللي .. اللي
+
+138
+00:12:08,410 --> 00:12:14,350
+قالت غلط فضلك الآلة الحاسبة كيف هتكتبها؟ أربع أربع
+
+139
+00:12:14,350 --> 00:12:17,910
+.. لأنه هذا في الامتحان ما فيش إمكانية تحكي للآلة
+
+140
+00:12:17,910 --> 00:12:22,210
+الحاسبة غلط يا أما أنت تستخدميش الآلة الحاسبة صح يا
+
+141
+00:12:22,210 --> 00:12:26,910
+أما أنت بتطبيق غلط تفضلي هذا الرقم لما تكتبيه على
+
+142
+00:12:26,910 --> 00:12:30,690
+الآلة الحاسبة ..الآلة الحاسبة كيف بتقرأه؟ فهمناك
+
+143
+00:12:30,690 --> 00:12:36,870
+توقف .. يلا أنت نفسك هيقول إن الآلة مظبوط ممكن
+
+144
+00:12:36,870 --> 00:12:39,830
+تعمل درر أربعة أو درر سن سابعة أو درر .. بس مش غلط
+
+145
+00:12:39,830 --> 00:12:42,670
+.. هذا صح .. ده جوا صح بس أنا مش عارف الانتحار ..
+
+146
+00:12:42,670 --> 00:12:45,870
+اه .. أنا طب أكيد .. أنا خاليك يعني .. كيف الآلة
+
+147
+00:12:45,870 --> 00:12:50,190
+الحاسبة هتكتبها هذا؟ عشرة أسنان .. خلقي هي لحالها
+
+148
+00:12:50,190 --> 00:12:57,030
+هتعرف Okay هلا مش عارفة إيش راح تسوي هلا عندنا واحد
+
+149
+00:12:57,030 --> 00:13:01,670
+اتنين عدّي معايا واحد اتنين تلاتة أربع خمسة ستة
+
+150
+00:13:01,670 --> 00:13:06,810
+ولما إيه نتيجة على الرقم ال digit الصحيح سبعة
+
+151
+00:13:06,810 --> 00:13:11,930
+فبيجي بحكي أربعة point تلاتة أس عشرة ماخص سبعة
+
+152
+00:13:11,930 --> 00:13:16,610
+فهمتي طبعا
+
+153
+00:13:16,610 --> 00:13:22,410
+ليش مش خلط يعني اه اه كمان مثال اه وضحت
+
+154
+00:13:24,910 --> 00:13:29,810
+واضحط فالمشكلة الأخطاء بتيجي مش من التطبيق الأخطاء
+
+155
+00:13:29,810 --> 00:13:38,330
+بتيجي من عدم استخدام الآلة الحاسبة بشكل صحيح الكل
+
+156
+00:13:38,330 --> 00:13:45,290
+قسم 8 على 360 بيطلع اللي هو إيش point zero two two
+
+157
+00:13:45,290 --> 00:13:49,150
+two two two rounding بيطلع هذا الرقم تمانية ستة
+
+158
+00:13:49,150 --> 00:13:49,590
+و تلاتين
+
+159
+00:13:52,680 --> 00:13:57,660
+انطبق القانون يلا ذكروني إيش القانون واحد واحدة
+
+160
+00:13:57,660 --> 00:14:01,140
+واحدة
+
+161
+00:14:01,140 --> 00:14:10,900
+ال bar value ضرب واحد واحد معقص ال discount ضرب ال
+
+162
+00:14:10,900 --> 00:14:18,680
+maturity أصلا حاسبين احنا صح طيب بدنا نجرب خدوا
+
+163
+00:14:18,680 --> 00:14:24,520
+بالكم أنا يمكن أعمل إشي غلط عشان إن انتوا إيش تنتبهوا
+
+164
+00:14:24,520 --> 00:14:28,100
+وين ممكن يصير الأخطاء احتمالات الأخطاء فيها انطبق
+
+165
+00:14:28,100 --> 00:14:33,660
+المعادلة تساوي العشر تلاف هي العشر تلاف طبقوا
+
+166
+00:14:33,660 --> 00:14:39,700
+المعادلة انتوا على الآلة الحاسبة عشرة تلاف ضرب الواحد
+
+167
+00:14:39,700 --> 00:14:45,230
+ناقص ال D ال إيش ال discount الـ discount اللي هو
+
+168
+00:14:45,230 --> 00:14:53,070
+حكينا zero zero zero five مظبوط ضرب اللي هو point
+
+169
+00:14:53,070 --> 00:14:59,030
+two two two two مظبوط هلأ هذه في احتمالات كبيرة
+
+170
+00:14:59,030 --> 00:15:02,690
+غلط فيها في
+
+171
+00:15:02,690 --> 00:15:05,170
+احتمالات كبيرة غلط فيها خاصة إن انتوا بتستخدموا
+
+172
+00:15:05,170 --> 00:15:08,530
+آلات حاسبة فيه priorities للأقواس فإذا أنا ما أخدتش
+
+173
+00:15:08,530 --> 00:15:11,830
+بعين الاعتبار priorities للأقواس هيكون عندي حل غلط
+
+174
+00:15:11,830 --> 00:15:19,610
+طيب بنقول هان ضرب انتبهوا معايا و ركزوا معايا و
+
+175
+00:15:19,610 --> 00:15:26,910
+تشوفوا احتمالات الخطأ وين صير العشر تلاف ضرب واحد
+
+176
+00:15:26,910 --> 00:15:32,510
+ناقص هذه
+
+177
+00:15:32,510 --> 00:15:35,230
+اللي هو البد ضرب
+
+178
+00:15:47,450 --> 00:15:53,430
+إيش رأيكم؟ مين
+
+179
+00:15:53,430 --> 00:16:01,470
+طلع عنده جواب زي هيك؟ مين
+
+180
+00:16:01,470 --> 00:16:05,770
+عنده طلع جواب زي هيك؟ okay مين ما طلعش عنده
+
+181
+00:16:05,770 --> 00:16:09,610
+الجواب؟ هرجيكوا احتمالات إنه الجواب بيطلع غلط
+
+182
+00:16:09,610 --> 00:16:11,050
+طلعوا كيف؟
+
+183
+00:16:15,170 --> 00:16:24,770
+مين عنده طلع جواب زي هيك؟ طيب مين طلع عنده جواب زي
+
+184
+00:16:24,770 --> 00:16:30,610
+هيك؟ زي هيك؟ ايوا أنا بدأ ارجعك كل احتمالات الخطأ
+
+185
+00:16:30,610 --> 00:16:36,030
+اللي ممكن تخطئ فيها الأول
+
+186
+00:16:36,030 --> 00:16:40,910
+واحدة صح طيب هلأ هذه إيش معناه كلمة إن اللي حل
+
+187
+00:16:40,910 --> 00:16:44,190
+هيك نسي يحط الناقص اللي هو واحد ناقص
+
+188
+00:16:46,690 --> 00:17:05,230
+زي هيك مستحيل ما تحققليش حطينها okay
+
+189
+00:17:05,230 --> 00:17:10,030
+هلأ
+
+190
+00:17:10,030 --> 00:17:16,980
+بنات انتبهوا بس معايا لحظة كل .. في عندنا احنا آلات
+
+191
+00:17:16,980 --> 00:17:24,020
+حاسبة .. في .. كل آلة حاسبة إلها شغلها الخاص فأنا
+
+192
+00:17:24,020 --> 00:17:26,940
+بأنصح شغلك إن طالما انتوا جايبين آلة حاسبة معاكم
+
+193
+00:17:26,940 --> 00:17:30,400
+الآن اتأكدوا إن الجواب طلع صح ليش؟ لأنه في آلات
+
+194
+00:17:30,400 --> 00:17:34,660
+حاسبة بتعملش priorities مثلا لأشياء معينة وبالتالي
+
+195
+00:17:34,660 --> 00:17:39,640
+اتأكدوا إن الجواب طلع معاكم بهذا الشكل طيب، هلأ لو
+
+196
+00:17:39,640 --> 00:17:48,530
+احنا بدنا نجرب شغلة تانية لو نجرب مثلا ناخد ال 0.5
+
+197
+00:17:48,530 --> 00:17:56,770
+احنا أخدنا 0.55 نجرب اللي جنبه 0.05 يعني
+
+198
+00:17:56,770 --> 00:18:06,710
+نغير ل 0.58 طيب 0.58 okay
+
+199
+00:18:06,710 --> 00:18:09,970
+نغير
+
+200
+00:18:09,970 --> 00:18:12,190
+ل 0.43
+
+201
+00:18:16,740 --> 00:18:19,680
+نغير مثلا عندكم .. هاي الموجود .. هذا الموجود
+
+202
+00:18:19,680 --> 00:18:27,060
+ينقلنا .. سفر تلاتة خمسة مظبوط؟
+
+203
+00:18:27,060 --> 00:18:31,360
+طلع عندك حق .. صح؟ بس خدوا بالكم التقريب يعني
+
+204
+00:18:31,360 --> 00:18:34,440
+اللي هيفرق بس التقريب هنا اللي هي ممكن تسيطر ..
+
+205
+00:18:34,440 --> 00:18:38,640
+نغير التاريخ اه بنا نغير التاريخ صح؟ هنغير
+
+206
+00:18:38,640 --> 00:18:42,820
+التاريخ التاريخ
+
+207
+00:18:42,820 --> 00:18:48,310
+كام تبع السفر تلاتة خمسة؟ أربع و أربعين بيطلع مظبوط؟
+
+208
+00:18:48,310 --> 00:18:56,350
+طلعوا عليها هاي تاعة ال 035 اللي هي هذه ال 035 هي
+
+209
+00:18:56,350 --> 00:19:02,730
+هذه اللي عندنا 44 يوم تمام؟ الجواب تبعها زي ما
+
+210
+00:19:02,730 --> 00:19:11,530
+انتوا شايفين 9999.57 مظبوط؟ okay طب حلوا ليه حاجة
+
+211
+00:19:11,530 --> 00:19:14,570
+دي و أنا هشوف في ال .. إذا في حد عنده خطأ في
+
+212
+00:19:14,570 --> 00:19:22,170
+الحاسوب هشوف وين بيغلط اللي هو آخر واحدة اللي هو
+
+213
+00:19:22,170 --> 00:19:30,010
+0035 هذه هعلمكم إياها يلا
+
+214
+00:19:30,010 --> 00:19:33,290
+بسرعة عشان أجي أشوف ال .. إذا في حد عنده خطأ في
+
+215
+00:19:33,290 --> 00:19:34,870
+الآلة الحاسبة بس ييجي و يوديني okay
+
+216
+00:19:42,390 --> 00:19:47,310
+أربعة و أربعة و أربعة و أربعة و أربعة و أربعة و
+
+217
+00:19:47,310 --> 00:19:50,070
+أربعة و أربعة
+
+218
+00:20:07,310 --> 00:20:14,730
+براكو براكو براكو
+
+219
+00:20:14,730 --> 00:20:20,470
+براكو براكو
+
+220
+00:20:20,470 --> 00:20:23,490
+براكو براكو
+
+221
+00:20:38,120 --> 00:20:43,390
+ماشي الحال يا بنات عن أفضل يعني البنات اللي
+
+222
+00:20:43,390 --> 00:20:47,110
+ما شفتش حلهم هم مش جايين .. مش جايبين آلة حاسبة
+
+223
+00:20:47,110 --> 00:20:51,750
+البنات اللي .. اللي ورجولي شغلهم تقريبا تسعة و
+
+224
+00:20:51,750 --> 00:20:54,310
+تسعين في المية حلهم صح تسعة و تسعين في المية من
+
+225
+00:20:54,310 --> 00:20:58,950
+اللي شوفتم صح، تمام؟ يعني بس يمكن واحدة بس برضه
+
+226
+00:20:58,950 --> 00:21:03,410
+عاودت و .. و الحل كان صح، تمام يا بنات؟ بالنسبة
+
+227
+00:21:03,410 --> 00:21:08,310
+للمش جايين .. جايبين آلة الحاسبة تبعتهم رجاء يعني
+
+228
+00:21:08,310 --> 00:21:11,610
+يتحملوا يحطوا الحاسبة جانب ال mobile عشان ما يتذكروش
+
+229
+00:21:11,610 --> 00:21:18,430
+ماشي الحال طيب حكينا
+
+230
+00:21:18,430 --> 00:21:22,070
+عن ال treasury bills نحكي على certificate of
+
+231
+00:21:22,070 --> 00:21:34,370
+deposits certificate
+
+232
+00:21:34,370 --> 00:21:43,710
+of deposits اللي هو شهادات الإيداع شهادات إيداع شو
+
+233
+00:21:43,710 --> 00:21:46,210
+الفرق بين ال certificates of deposits و الودائع
+
+234
+00:21:46,210 --> 00:21:49,970
+العادية ال deposits إن احنا بنحط وديعة في ال bank
+
+235
+00:21:49,970 --> 00:21:55,530
+إلها وقت و فيه certificate فيها فيها شهادة بنعطيها
+
+236
+00:21:55,530 --> 00:21:59,650
+and this certificate of deposits is listed in the
+
+237
+00:21:59,650 --> 00:22:01,570
+financial market و كمان بتكون مدرجة في السوق
+
+238
+00:22:01,570 --> 00:22:06,750
+المالي الورقة هذه اللي معناها ال certificate of
+
+239
+00:22:06,750 --> 00:22:10,830
+deposit we can sell this ممكن نبيعها in the
+
+240
+00:22:10,830 --> 00:22:13,750
+financial markets يعني ممكن نروح على السوق المالي
+
+241
+00:22:13,750 --> 00:22:17,910
+و نبيع الورقة اللي هي شهادة إيداع طب شو المقابل؟
+
+242
+00:22:17,910 --> 00:22:21,630
+المقابل ال certificate of deposit احنا نوضع مثلا
+
+243
+00:22:21,630 --> 00:22:28,490
+الألف دولار أو مضاعفاتهم و بناخد فوائد عليهم إذا احنا
+
+244
+00:22:28,490 --> 00:22:32,310
+بنبيعه okay فطالما احنا حاملين الورقة هذه اللي هو
+
+245
+00:22:32,310 --> 00:22:34,910
+certificate of deposits معناه كلها بناخد عليها
+
+246
+00:22:34,910 --> 00:22:38,010
+فوائد طالما احنا حاملين هذه الورقة وغالبا بتكون
+
+247
+00:22:38,010 --> 00:22:42,670
+short term ال risk تبعها is greater than the
+
+248
+00:22:42,670 --> 00:22:47,070
+treasury bills أكثر من .. شوية مش كتير is greater
+
+249
+00:22:47,070 --> 00:22:50,750
+than the treasury bills تمام؟ هذه وضحة certificate
+
+250
+00:22:50,750 --> 00:22:53,690
+of deposits طبعا ال certificates of deposits بي .. 
+
+251
+00:22:53,690 --> 00:22:58,110
+بي .. بيعملهاش أو بيصدرهاش إلا بنوك certified
+
+252
+00:22:58,110 --> 00:23:02,970
+banks أو highly qualified banks البنوك اللي ال ..
+
+253
+00:23:02,970 --> 00:23:05,930
+الملاءة المالية تبعتهم عالية بيقدروا يصدروا
+
+254
+00:23:05,930 --> 00:23:09,770
+اللي هو شهادات الإيداع طيب ال commercial papers في
+
+255
+00:23:09,770 --> 00:23:14,010
+حد يعرف ال commercial papers الأوراق التجارية كيف
+
+256
+00:23:14,010 --> 00:23:15,430
+هذه فكرة الأوراق التجارية؟
+
+257
+00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:25,200
+يلا مين قرأ عن أوراق تجارية؟ زي الكمبيالات .. okay
+
+258
+00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:33,440
+الشركات 
+
+259
+00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:35,560
+الكبيرة .. اتفضلي
+
+260
+00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:58,880
+مثلا زي .. زي ما حكت أنه أنا لما بدي أصدر
+
+261
+00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:04,760
+commercial papers مثلا أنا محتاج أن أطلع حالي على
+
+262
+00:24:04,760 --> 00:24:11,640
+الشكل محتاج أنا مثلا short term خدوا بالكم واحنا 
+
+263
+00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:19,880
+محتاج short term أنا بحاجة لـ 100 ألف دولار بحاجة لـ
+
+264
+00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:23,640
+100 ألف دولار مقابلهم بأصدر 100 ألف دولار اللي هو
+
+265
+00:24:23,640 --> 00:24:28,900
+CDs شهادات إيداع التزامات على الـ 100 ألف دولار
+
+266
+00:24:28,900 --> 00:24:33,740
+هدول بنزل .. بنزلهم .. ببيعهم في السوق عبارة عن
+
+267
+00:24:33,740 --> 00:24:39,910
+شهادة إيداع وورقة مكتوب عليها الـ par value نفترض
+
+268
+00:24:39,910 --> 00:24:43,650
+اللي هو ألف طبعًا ألف كم واحدة لازم أصدر معناه
+
+269
+00:24:43,650 --> 00:24:48,030
+كلام إذا كان مية ألف لازم أصدر مية okay الألف
+
+270
+00:24:48,030 --> 00:24:53,290
+ومكتوب الـ maturity date تاريخ الاستحقاق تاريخ مثلا
+
+271
+00:24:53,290 --> 00:25:02,430
+ثلاثين ستة 2013 طب هلأ إيش اللي بيستفيد الـ
+
+272
+00:25:02,430 --> 00:25:07,650
+investors لما الـ investors بدفع ألف دولار
+
+273
+00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:14,640
+للشركة طب إيش بيستفيد الـ investor؟ الـ investor هان
+
+274
+00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:17,200
+زي فكرة الـ treasury bills زي فكرة الـ treasury
+
+275
+00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:21,700
+bills إيش الـ treasury bills حكينا فيها؟ بتنبع ب ..
+
+276
+00:25:21,700 --> 00:25:27,280
+بخصم اه إذا ما بدفعش الـ ألف دولار للشركة بدفع أقل
+
+277
+00:25:27,280 --> 00:25:33,890
+فبدفع مثلا نحكي تسعمائة وسبعين دولار اليوم بدفع 970
+
+278
+00:25:33,890 --> 00:25:37,490
+دولار on the maturity date في تاريخ الاستحقاق
+
+279
+00:25:37,490 --> 00:25:43,970
+receive 1000 دولار كم استفاد إذا؟ 30 هذه الـ
+
+280
+00:25:43,970 --> 00:25:47,670
+commercial paper عادة
+
+281
+00:25:47,670 --> 00:25:51,930
+ممكن كمان الـ big companies invest in this small
+
+282
+00:25:51,930 --> 00:25:58,090
+investors و الـ big companies الـ CDs is backed by
+
+283
+00:25:58,090 --> 00:26:02,610
+the .. by the banks مرات أن الشركة ما بتقدرش تعمل
+
+284
+00:26:02,610 --> 00:26:07,210
+marketing للـ CDs .. لا عفوًا للـ commercial papers،
+
+285
+00:26:07,210 --> 00:26:09,310
+ما بتقدرش تعمل marketing، ما بتقدرش تسوقهم،
+
+286
+00:26:09,310 --> 00:26:15,450
+تبيعهم، فعشان يسوقوهم فبطلبوا backed by the bank،
+
+287
+00:26:15,450 --> 00:26:20,170
+إيش backed؟ إنه يتم كفالة البنك يعني مثلا بالتل
+
+288
+00:26:20,170 --> 00:26:23,570
+شركة بالتل اتصالات بدها تصدر commercial paper
+
+289
+00:26:23,570 --> 00:26:27,690
+نازلاتهم على السوق ما بيشوفوهم الناس يشتروهم بيخافوا
+
+290
+00:26:27,690 --> 00:26:30,690
+لأن لو اشتروا ال .. اشتروا ال .. الـ commercial
+
+291
+00:26:30,690 --> 00:26:34,790
+paper شو يضمنهم أنه .. أن الشركة هتصدهم فبطلبوا
+
+292
+00:26:34,790 --> 00:26:38,910
+السوق المالي بيطلب ضمانة البنك بيسموها backed ..
+
+293
+00:26:38,910 --> 00:26:45,410
+backed okay backed شفتوا كلمة backed backed يعني
+
+294
+00:26:46,570 --> 00:26:51,630
+بيدفعوا أو بيحموا الـ commercial paper by the banks
+
+295
+00:26:51,630 --> 00:26:55,990
+يعني الـ bank هو المسؤول في حال أن بيلتل ما دفعتش
+
+296
+00:26:55,990 --> 00:27:01,350
+okay بيسموها backed بيحموا الـ commercial paper
+
+297
+00:27:01,350 --> 00:27:05,890
+الأوراق التجارية يعني راحت بيلتل أصدرت أوراق
+
+298
+00:27:05,890 --> 00:27:10,090
+تجارية okay هل المستثمرين اجوا اشتروا الأوراق
+
+299
+00:27:10,090 --> 00:27:14,470
+التجارية بخاصة ما هي الضمانة أن الـ بيلتل تدفع
+
+300
+00:27:15,370 --> 00:27:19,650
+الأوراق التجارية فيهم الاستحقاق ما فيش ضمانة فالسوق
+
+301
+00:27:19,650 --> 00:27:23,550
+المالي بيروح بيطلب من بالتل أنه تحكي مع أهل البنوك
+
+302
+00:27:23,550 --> 00:27:30,330
+يعمل backed يعني يضمن الـ commercial paper خوفًا ما
+
+303
+00:27:30,330 --> 00:27:34,430
+عدم السداد طبعًا تباع بخصم زيها زي الـ treasury
+
+304
+00:27:34,430 --> 00:27:38,030
+bills طبعًا risk is higher risk than the
+
+305
+00:27:38,030 --> 00:27:41,610
+certificate of deposit مخاطر تبعها أعلى من الـ
+
+306
+00:27:41,610 --> 00:27:46,400
+certificate of deposit المخاطر تبعها أعلى من
+
+307
+00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:51,320
+certificate of deposits اللي هو شهادات الإيداع اللي
+
+308
+00:27:51,320 --> 00:28:00,680
+تاوينا حكينا فيها اتفضل اه
+
+309
+00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:07,960
+في طبعًا أنا متين وسبعين يوم يعني كم شهر متين
+
+310
+00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:14,550
+وسبعين يوم شهرين بتحكي عن ثمان شهور أقل شي طب احنا
+
+311
+00:28:14,550 --> 00:28:20,410
+مثلنا كم شهر؟ كم شهر مثلنا؟ أربع شهور مثلنا
+
+312
+00:28:20,410 --> 00:28:25,530
+الواي ثلاثين ستة الفين وثلاثة عشر اه طبعًا هذه قصيرة
+
+313
+00:28:25,530 --> 00:28:29,910
+الأجل قصيرة الأجل يعني ما .. ما يتم إصدار أكثر من
+
+314
+00:28:29,910 --> 00:28:36,270
+سنة اللي هو ما الـ commercial paper okay طيب
+
+315
+00:28:36,270 --> 00:28:40,850
+bankers acceptance الـ
+
+316
+00:28:40,850 --> 00:28:46,260
+bankers acceptance سمعتوا فيها؟ اسمها القبولات
+
+317
+00:28:46,260 --> 00:28:52,720
+المصرفية بالـ
+
+318
+00:28:52,720 --> 00:29:00,340
+certificates
+
+319
+00:29:00,340 --> 00:29:07,800
+of deposit سؤالك لأفريقيا ميحة وإذا هذا
+
+320
+00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:10,300
+بنناقشها بعد ما أخلص اللي خليني بس أركز على الـ
+
+321
+00:29:10,300 --> 00:29:13,350
+bankers acceptance بنركز على الـ bankers acceptance
+
+322
+00:29:13,350 --> 00:29:17,650
+وبنرجع لسؤالك الـ bankers acceptance بالعربي اسمها
+
+323
+00:29:17,650 --> 00:29:21,830
+القبولات المصرفية اه طب شو يعني .. هي عرفتوها 
+
+324
+00:29:21,830 --> 00:29:24,730
+بالعربي طب إيش معناها القبولات المصرفية؟ إيش تعني؟
+
+325
+00:29:24,730 --> 00:29:31,170
+ما بنعرفش فيها طب ومن وين اجت؟ طبعًا okay كملّي
+
+326
+00:29:31,170 --> 00:29:34,950
+البنت
+
+327
+00:29:34,950 --> 00:29:38,530
+المفروض تدرس تجارة دولية أنت بالاقتصاد جاي صح؟
+
+328
+00:29:38,530 --> 00:29:45,790
+سمعت بالقبولات المصرفية لك؟ طب إيش هذه شغلتها؟ إيش
+
+329
+00:29:45,790 --> 00:29:50,290
+شغلتها؟ هي مهمة بالتجارة الخارجية إيش شغلتها ال ..
+
+330
+00:29:50,290 --> 00:29:54,430
+اه .. في حد بعرف؟ طب خليني أعطيكم إيش الفكرة
+
+331
+00:29:54,430 --> 00:29:59,070
+اجربي يلا شوفوا ممكن تاجر يعني موجود برا عشان
+
+332
+00:29:59,070 --> 00:30:05,450
+يشتغل بتاعه بضمان من الـ bank لازم ياخد قبول نصف من 
+
+333
+00:30:05,450 --> 00:30:12,650
+الـ bank تبعه للبلده okay يعني تقريبًا أنا انتبهوا بس
+
+334
+00:30:12,650 --> 00:30:15,670
+علينا انتبهوا علينا عشان تفهموها وما تنسوهاش
+
+335
+00:30:15,670 --> 00:30:24,830
+خلينيكم بس انتبهوا هالمعنى عشان ما تنسوهاش حتى 
+
+336
+00:30:24,830 --> 00:30:32,570
+نرجع للتعريف وتعرفوا هلأ في عندي أنا مصدر وفي
+
+337
+00:30:32,570 --> 00:30:37,250
+عندي مستورد صح؟ اه بالظبط مين حكت اعتماد مستوردي؟
+
+338
+00:30:37,250 --> 00:30:41,510
+اه بالـ L/C بالـ L/C الـ L/C اللي هو الاعتمادات
+
+339
+00:30:41,510 --> 00:30:49,730
+المستندية خلينا نوضحها بس هلأ مستورد فلسطيني ومصدر
+
+340
+00:30:49,730 --> 00:30:56,110
+صيني okay هلأ الفلسطيني بده من الصين بضاعة okay
+
+341
+00:30:56,110 --> 00:31:02,590
+يعني الصين بيبعت للفلسطين بضاعة والفلسطين بيبعت 
+
+342
+00:31:02,590 --> 00:31:05,790
+للصين إيش فلوس cash
+
+343
+00:31:08,470 --> 00:31:15,050
+or المبلغ عادة في التجارة الدولية ما فيش يعني
+
+344
+00:31:15,050 --> 00:31:20,770
+القليل اللي بيدفعه cash مرة واحدة مرة واحدة فبيروح
+
+345
+00:31:20,770 --> 00:31:25,230
+بيفتحوا اعتماد مستندى اللي هو إيش الـ L/C اعتمادات
+
+346
+00:31:25,230 --> 00:31:28,170
+مستندية في الحالة اللي اعتمادات المستندية بيكون
+
+347
+00:31:28,170 --> 00:31:32,630
+البنك البنك الفلسطيني وليكم مثلا Bank of Palestine
+
+348
+00:31:32,630 --> 00:31:39,430
+اللي هو Bank فلسطين بيدمن المستورد لدى البنك المصدر
+
+349
+00:31:39,430 --> 00:31:46,690
+بدفع المبلغ بدفع إيش؟ مقابل أنه البنك المصدر
+
+350
+00:31:46,690 --> 00:31:52,290
+بيضمن للصيني بداعة الإبداع okay هذا شغل كبير بس
+
+351
+00:31:52,290 --> 00:31:55,050
+احنا هذا جزء كبير يعني بدرسوها بفصل كامل هذا الـ
+
+352
+00:31:55,050 --> 00:31:58,830
+process البسيطة هذه شايفينها بدرسوها بفصل كامل بس
+
+353
+00:31:58,830 --> 00:32:03,010
+احنا نفهم الـ concept طب هل البنك الفلسطيني هذا
+
+354
+00:32:03,010 --> 00:32:07,510
+اللي هو الـ Bank of Palestine بيروح بيصدر check؟ بيصدر
+
+355
+00:32:07,510 --> 00:32:11,770
+إيش؟ شيك هذا الشيك يتم إصداره .. يصدره لمصلحة إيش؟
+
+356
+00:32:11,770 --> 00:32:17,370
+الصيني هذا الشيك مكتوب عليه هكذا مكتوب عليه
+
+357
+00:32:17,370 --> 00:32:24,690
+accepted مقبول إيش يعني accepted؟ يعني it is
+
+358
+00:32:24,690 --> 00:32:28,850
+guaranteed that Bank of Palestine will pay to the
+
+359
+00:32:28,850 --> 00:32:32,130
+Bank of China this amount of money on this date
+
+360
+00:32:32,130 --> 00:32:37,070
+ضمان يا بنك الفلسطيني مش ضمان مش ضمان ما فيش ضمان
+
+361
+00:32:37,070 --> 00:32:41,550
+هذه فيها دافع يعني بيصدر شيك البنك ل .. هنرجع
+
+362
+00:32:41,550 --> 00:32:46,910
+للتعريف البنك بيصدر شيك لمصلحة البنك الآخر أنه هذا
+
+363
+00:32:46,910 --> 00:32:51,450
+الشيك مقبول is accepted بيكونوا حطوا ختم الـ
+
+364
+00:32:51,450 --> 00:32:56,090
+accepted بالطريقة هذه شايفينها كيف؟ بال .. بعرض الـ
+
+365
+00:32:56,090 --> 00:32:59,990
+accepted accepted يعني مقبول طالما البنك حط إشارة
+
+366
+00:32:59,990 --> 00:33:03,620
+accepted عليه معناه الكلام ما فيش إمكانية أنه يرجع
+
+367
+00:33:03,620 --> 00:33:09,040
+الشيك يعني hundred percent the bank will pay this
+
+368
+00:33:09,040 --> 00:33:14,860
+amount of money البنك الفلسطيني البنك الفلسطيني
+
+369
+00:33:14,860 --> 00:33:17,540
+البنك الفلسطيني البنك الفلسطيني البنك الفلسطيني
+
+370
+00:33:17,540 --> 00:33:17,660
+البنك الفلسطيني البنك الفلسطيني البنك الفلسطيني
+
+371
+00:33:17,660 --> 00:33:19,740
+البنك الفلسطيني البنك الفلسطيني البنك الفلسطيني
+
+372
+00:33:19,740 --> 00:33:21,660
+البنك الفلسطيني البنك الفلسطيني البنك الفلسطيني
+
+373
+00:33:21,660 --> 00:33:22,540
+البنك الفلسطيني البنك الفلسطيني البنك الفلسطيني
+
+374
+00:33:22,540 --> 00:33:25,500
+البنك الفلسطيني البنك الفلسطيني البنك الفلسطيني
+
+375
+00:33:25,500 --> 00:33:33,420
+البنك الفلسطيني البهي أمر من خلال الـ bank by a
+
+376
+00:33:33,420 --> 00:33:37,220
+banks customer من خلال الـ bank customer اللي هو
+
+377
+00:33:37,220 --> 00:33:42,440
+المستورد الفلسطيني هو بيقول له اصدرلي هذا الشيك to 
+
+378
+00:33:42,440 --> 00:33:47,680
+pay a sum of money on a future date لدفع مبلغ معين 
+
+379
+00:33:47,680 --> 00:33:54,540
+في المستقبل طيب لسه ما انتهتش القصة هلأ الشيك راح 
+
+380
+00:33:54,540 --> 00:33:58,400
+لمين؟ هاي شايفين الشيك؟ هاي الشيك راح لمين؟
+
+381
+00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:03,810
+المكتوب acceptedراحنا لمين؟ للصيني الصيني ها يوهان
+
+382
+00:34:03,810 --> 00:34:11,370
+okay واستلام الشيك okay هاي الشيك بيده هلا الشيك 
+
+383
+00:34:11,370 --> 00:34:16,390
+هذا is in the future هذا في المستقبل يعني وليكن 
+
+384
+00:34:16,390 --> 00:34:21,450
+مثلا تاريخ الـ maturity date سبعه مثلا خمستاشر 
+
+385
+00:34:21,450 --> 00:34:27,010
+تلاتة الفين و تلتاشر هذا الصيني he needs money
+
+386
+00:34:27,010 --> 00:34:34,920
+محتاج مصاري but he cannot liquidate the cheque now
+
+387
+00:34:34,920 --> 00:34:38,800
+مقدرش انه يعمله هالجات او ياخد قيمته هالجات he has
+
+388
+00:34:38,800 --> 00:34:42,860
+to discount this لازم يعمله discount يعمله خاصا
+
+389
+00:34:42,860 --> 00:34:46,200
+بروح على السوق المالي او بروح على البنوك و بقولهم
+
+390
+00:34:46,200 --> 00:34:48,520
+اتفضلوا هاي cheque و ليكن قيمة الـ cheque مثلا
+
+391
+00:34:48,520 --> 00:34:52,840
+twenty thousand dollar عشرين الف دولار بروح على الـ
+
+392
+00:34:52,840 --> 00:34:56,620
+cheque و بقولهم hi he is fine this is cheque فبقول
+
+393
+00:34:56,620 --> 00:34:59,920
+له تعالى الـ bank this is the maturity of this
+
+394
+00:34:59,920 --> 00:35:07,480
+shake sir is on 15th of march 2013 هذا بيستحق ب 20
+
+395
+00:35:07,480 --> 00:35:12,520
+مارس في 13 you would like to liquidate this yes
+
+396
+00:35:12,520 --> 00:35:18,200
+but this is discounted لكن هذا عليه discount لازم
+
+397
+00:35:18,200 --> 00:35:22,440
+نخصمه would you mind to do this يعني هل تمانع ذلك؟
+
+398
+00:35:22,440 --> 00:35:26,560
+no is fine بعمله discount بقوله okay so you get
+
+399
+00:35:26,560 --> 00:35:30,920
+nineteen five hundred thousand خدها التسعة عشر ألف
+
+400
+00:35:30,920 --> 00:35:35,220
+و خمسمية دولار this is yours البنك كام استفاد من
+
+401
+00:35:35,220 --> 00:35:39,020
+هذا الموضوع؟ خمسمية دولار شفته الـ bank is
+
+402
+00:35:39,020 --> 00:35:43,280
+acceptance؟ طيب البنك كمان حط الـ bank is 
+
+403
+00:35:43,280 --> 00:35:48,300
+acceptance عنده و راح محتاج سيولة احتاج السيولة
+
+404
+00:35:48,300 --> 00:35:52,260
+مثلا نحكي بواحد تلاتة هيعيد نفس الشغلة مع ناس مع 
+
+405
+00:35:52,260 --> 00:35:56,040
+.. مع .. مع أخر okay إذا شفتوا الـ bank is
+
+406
+00:35:56,040 --> 00:35:58,800
+acceptance كيف أنه ممكن تكون وسيلة من وسائل
+
+407
+00:35:58,800 --> 00:36:05,620
+الاستثمار طبعا هذا الكلام لعند الف وتسعمية أو نحكي
+
+408
+00:36:05,620 --> 00:36:09,740
+الفين وخمسة كان ينشغل في غزة هذا اسم الـ bank is
+
+409
+00:36:09,740 --> 00:36:15,690
+acceptance في حد عنده سؤال فيها؟ نجف عند هذا الحد
+
+410
+00:36:15,690 --> 00:36:18,270
+okay عشان نحكي المرة الفاتة عن الـ euro dollar 
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/lbabGU7OGiY_postprocess.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/lbabGU7OGiY_postprocess.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..107e7267d1b65b330e9f40466121f93796f0eeba
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/lbabGU7OGiY_postprocess.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1640 @@
+1
+00:00:20,720 --> 00:00:25,760
+طب احنا اليوم المحاضرة لها علاقة في ال .. اللي
+
+2
+00:00:25,760 --> 00:00:29,220
+احنا حكيناها المرة الفاتة بموضوع ال treasure bills
+
+3
+00:00:29,220 --> 00:00:34,160
+and how we convert the discount rates into prices
+
+4
+00:00:34,160 --> 00:00:39,250
+لأنه في ال financial markets مابيعرضوش الأسعارas
+
+5
+00:00:39,250 --> 00:00:43,750
+you know يعني مثلا سعر ألف دولار ألفين دولار هذا
+
+6
+00:00:43,750 --> 00:00:47,690
+مابيعودوهاش وكماش و أما نحكي عن ال bonds prices
+
+7
+00:00:47,690 --> 00:00:51,490
+هنجد تسعير ال prices بطريقة بتختلف عن اللي إحنا
+
+8
+00:00:51,490 --> 00:00:56,850
+بنعرفها فإحنا مهمتنا لإنه how to change the
+
+9
+00:00:56,850 --> 00:01:03,050
+financial market pricesOkay into prices that we
+
+10
+00:01:03,050 --> 00:01:06,430
+understand الأسعار احنا بنفهمها زي ما احنا حكينا
+
+11
+00:01:06,430 --> 00:01:08,790
+المرة الفاتة انه لو طلع .. طلعنا على ال treasury
+
+12
+00:01:08,790 --> 00:01:12,970
+bills treasury bills الموجودة هنا نكبرها شوية طبعا
+
+13
+00:01:12,970 --> 00:01:20,470
+لو طلعنا عليهم الأسعار في
+
+14
+00:01:20,470 --> 00:01:25,970
+عند ال maturity okay و عند ال maturity days to
+
+15
+00:01:25,970 --> 00:01:28,110
+maturity اللي هو تمانية يعني ايش تمانية تماني
+
+16
+00:01:28,110 --> 00:01:34,560
+الأيام okayو عندنا ال bid 0055 خدوا بالك this is
+
+17
+00:01:34,560 --> 00:01:38,880
+discount what it means discount خاصة هذه كنسمة
+
+18
+00:01:38,880 --> 00:01:43,340
+مقوية ادروا بالكم as a percentage مش هنعيد هذا
+
+19
+00:01:43,340 --> 00:01:45,280
+الكلام بالامتحان لما يصير عندكم امتحان انا مش
+
+20
+00:01:45,280 --> 00:01:47,700
+هحكيلكوا كلام هذا because you already know this
+
+21
+00:01:47,700 --> 00:01:53,840
+لأن انتوا اصلا بتعرفوا الكلام هذا ال ask 005
+
+22
+00:01:53,840 --> 00:01:59,000
+unchanged و ال 051 اللي هو ask killedyou can do
+
+23
+00:01:59,000 --> 00:02:03,040
+the reverse يعني ممكن انا ماعطيكم مش ارقام هان و
+
+24
+00:02:03,040 --> 00:02:06,340
+بس اعطيكوا ال asking و انتوا ترجعوا برجوه هناخد
+
+25
+00:02:06,340 --> 00:02:13,840
+سؤال اخر كيف نرجع برجوه okay فلنحسب ال 0055 نحولها
+
+26
+00:02:13,840 --> 00:02:18,860
+ل price نحولها لسعر و هذا المفروض كان معاكم واجب
+
+27
+00:02:18,860 --> 00:02:22,940
+لو حد حل خطأ مش مشكلة أجيبني الواجب على الأقل انه
+
+28
+00:02:22,940 --> 00:02:28,550
+في محاولةلكن الغلط انه احنا مانجيش بالمرة او
+
+29
+00:02:28,550 --> 00:02:32,810
+مانجيش معنى الواجب طبعا بعد ما انا اعطيتك الواجب
+
+30
+00:02:32,810 --> 00:02:36,370
+هحل جزء منه بحيث انه تتأكدوا انه كيف الطريقة الصح
+
+31
+00:02:36,370 --> 00:02:42,410
+للحل طبعا طيب انا زي ما انتوا شايفين اللي هو zero
+
+32
+00:02:42,410 --> 00:02:47,150
+five five نحولها لاش ل price طبعا لو احنا روحنا
+
+33
+00:02:47,150 --> 00:02:49,930
+على ال excel sheets هاي ال bit وحكينا zero
+
+34
+00:02:56,380 --> 00:03:02,200
+055 مظبوط طبعا في ال X الكتابها point 06 لأنه لازم
+
+35
+00:03:02,200 --> 00:03:08,480
+احنا نعمل format لل cell عشان تظهر بدل ال ال حاسب
+
+36
+00:03:08,480 --> 00:03:12,380
+يعني لإنه مش هتشوفوا ال ال حاسب هتشوفوا هيك okay
+
+37
+00:03:12,380 --> 00:03:20,480
+هاي زي ما تشايفين 055 و هاي 055 طيب عندي إيش
+
+38
+00:03:20,480 --> 00:03:23,140
+معلومات في عندي اللي هو maturity days to maturity
+
+39
+00:03:23,140 --> 00:03:27,860
+مظبوط اللي هو daysto maturity، عدد الأيام، كام ال
+
+40
+00:03:27,860 --> 00:03:33,220
+days to maturity؟ اللي هو تمانية، هي تمانية، تمان؟
+
+41
+00:03:33,220 --> 00:03:38,820
+إيش معلومات بالزمن غير هيك؟ بالحل؟ ال bar value،
+
+42
+00:03:38,820 --> 00:03:45,800
+okay، هي ال bar value حكينا ال bar value كام؟عشرة
+
+43
+00:03:45,800 --> 00:03:49,740
+ألف هاي عشرة ألف طبعا أساس أنه انت مرات you
+
+44
+00:03:49,740 --> 00:03:54,580
+confuse مرات بيصير الواحد يعد أ صفر صفرين تلاتة
+
+45
+00:03:54,580 --> 00:03:58,700
+أربعة هو حط صفر زيادة حتى في الأقل الحاسبة فتعملوا
+
+46
+00:03:58,700 --> 00:04:02,020
+programming للأ حاسبة تعملكوا فواصل في ال Excel
+
+47
+00:04:02,020 --> 00:04:06,200
+كيف نعملها فواصل نعمل format cell okay نحط ال
+
+48
+00:04:06,200 --> 00:04:12,520
+number ونحط ال .. اللي هو ال .. ال separator ونحط
+
+49
+00:04:12,520 --> 00:04:18,690
+okay فتطلعه مائة ألفwhich is wrong وهذا كلام نفس
+
+50
+00:04:18,690 --> 00:04:20,970
+ال function بتشتغل عندكم على الأقل حاسبة فأحد
+
+51
+00:04:20,970 --> 00:04:25,810
+الطالبات حكتلي انه في غلط في الأقل حاسبة فالغلط مش
+
+52
+00:04:25,810 --> 00:04:29,110
+في الأقل حاسبة الغلط how to use the calculator
+
+53
+00:04:29,110 --> 00:04:35,170
+okay so be careful on this فهذه عشرة حتى لو أنا
+
+54
+00:04:35,170 --> 00:04:41,300
+غلطت الأقل حاسبة هتصلحني الف لأ بس احنا مش الفعشرة
+
+55
+00:04:41,300 --> 00:04:46,440
+تلاف انا بالعمضان بغلط عساس اورجيكم ال options لو
+
+56
+00:04:46,440 --> 00:04:52,240
+احنا غلطنا شو ال result هتصير okay هاي عشرة تلاف
+
+57
+00:04:52,240 --> 00:04:59,620
+هاي البيانات واضحة في عند ال bid خمسة خدوا بأكم
+
+58
+00:04:59,620 --> 00:05:05,490
+خمسة في الميةفي المية لأن هذي as a percentage كتوي
+
+59
+00:05:05,490 --> 00:05:10,030
+زي ما كتبتلكم وعنا ال date و maturity تمان أيام و
+
+60
+00:05:10,030 --> 00:05:13,970
+ال bar value طيب ال date و ال maturity نبدأ بأول
+
+61
+00:05:13,970 --> 00:05:18,270
+واحدة اللي هو ال bid ال bid المفروض نقسمه على مية
+
+62
+00:05:18,270 --> 00:05:25,670
+تقسم مية خلصت طبعا this is confusing بس بنظبطها
+
+63
+00:05:36,460 --> 00:05:38,960
+لأ احنا مابنسألك .. احنا عندك .. هذا كله على
+
+64
+00:05:38,960 --> 00:05:45,580
+القالة الحاسبة طيب
+
+65
+00:05:45,580 --> 00:05:49,260
+تبع خطوة خطوة معايا بالقالة الحاسبة افتح القالة
+
+66
+00:05:49,260 --> 00:05:52,700
+الحاسبة تبعتك خطوة خطوة كل البنات افتحوا خطوة خطوة
+
+67
+00:05:52,700 --> 00:05:54,760
+القالة الحاسبة واتبعوا الخطوات اللي أنا بشتغل
+
+68
+00:05:54,760 --> 00:06:01,240
+عليها عشان تكتشفي وين الغلط اللي عندك اه
+
+69
+00:06:01,240 --> 00:06:08,990
+ليش مقسمة عالمية؟لأن هذه يا بنات لأن هذه الخمسة في
+
+70
+00:06:08,990 --> 00:06:12,050
+المية شايفينها ال points 0.055 انا حكيت this is
+
+71
+00:06:12,050 --> 00:06:17,250
+discount this is discount rate نسبة هذه يعني zero
+
+72
+00:06:17,250 --> 00:06:24,530
+five five percent في المية فاهمتي ليش هذا الكلام
+
+73
+00:06:24,530 --> 00:06:28,570
+توقف الذاكرين لما حاططكم percent هيك هذه percent
+
+74
+00:06:28,570 --> 00:06:34,310
+بس في الأسواق المالية يا بنات عشان كل digitكل
+
+75
+00:06:34,310 --> 00:06:38,910
+digit معنيين ان هم مايظهروش أرقام كتير فيحافظوا
+
+76
+00:06:38,910 --> 00:06:42,590
+على أقل digits ممكن فهم ال investors they know
+
+77
+00:06:42,590 --> 00:06:46,770
+this percent المستثمرين بيعرفوا ان this is percent
+
+78
+00:06:46,770 --> 00:06:52,530
+فاهمين عليها؟ ف no need for this فبقولك ان احنا
+
+79
+00:06:52,530 --> 00:06:57,610
+مابلزمناش هذا خلاص لأن ال investors عارفين 0.55%
+
+80
+00:06:59,580 --> 00:07:02,620
+فماحنا مش حاجة .. مافي حاجة نروح نكتب خناة كتير
+
+81
+00:07:02,620 --> 00:07:06,720
+لإن كما شويحة نيجي بال bonds في طريقة لكتابة ال ..
+
+82
+00:07:06,720 --> 00:07:09,240
+ال .. ال price بتختلف عن طريقة كتابة ال treasure
+
+83
+00:07:09,240 --> 00:07:12,260
+bills فعشان هيك انت لما تشوفوا الجزيرة مثلا تفتحوا
+
+84
+00:07:12,260 --> 00:07:15,580
+الجزيرة أو تفتحوا ال CNBC ولا تفتحوا ال BBC ولا
+
+85
+00:07:15,580 --> 00:07:18,580
+تفتحوا ال .. ال channels هذه بتشوفوا الأرقام
+
+86
+00:07:18,580 --> 00:07:22,990
+الموجودة مش أرقام ان الناس هت .. هتفهمها بسرعةيعني
+
+87
+00:07:22,990 --> 00:07:26,610
+مثلا ال index انخفض 200 نقطة و ارتفع 300 نقطة what
+
+88
+00:07:26,610 --> 00:07:30,150
+it means ال investors they know what it means 200
+
+89
+00:07:30,150 --> 00:07:34,010
+points and 300 points and they convert it into
+
+90
+00:07:34,010 --> 00:07:38,350
+their minds into prices هذه 300 نقطة و 200 نقطة
+
+91
+00:07:38,350 --> 00:07:45,450
+بتتحول ثراثهم في مخهم لأسعار فبعد فترة يصير عندكم
+
+92
+00:07:45,450 --> 00:07:49,490
+training يصير المخ على طول يعرف ان ال 0.55 تتساوي
+
+93
+00:07:49,490 --> 00:07:54,620
+كذاو 033 بتساوي كذا فبصير على طول لاحظته انا لما
+
+94
+00:07:54,620 --> 00:07:58,640
+كنت ا check the assignment ماقرأش اشوف على طول
+
+95
+00:07:58,640 --> 00:08:03,200
+اقولها غلط صح بدون ما اقرأ لإنه مجرد ما اشوف الرقم
+
+96
+00:08:04,090 --> 00:08:07,410
+عطول انا بعرف انه هذا غلط ولا صح لانه انا بعرف ال
+
+97
+00:08:07,410 --> 00:08:10,090
+equation ال equation معروفة وبالتالي مباشرة احنا
+
+98
+00:08:10,090 --> 00:08:14,290
+هنعرف ايش الحل هذا الكلام هيصير عند .. عند الطالب
+
+99
+00:08:14,290 --> 00:08:18,950
+بعد ما يحلله هيك اربع خمس ثمارين بيصير مباشرة يعرف
+
+100
+00:08:18,950 --> 00:08:22,910
+انه هذا صح و هذا غلط حتى في الامتحان انه لحاله
+
+101
+00:08:22,910 --> 00:08:26,150
+بيخيم الواحد نفسه انه هذا صح و هذا غلط من شكل
+
+102
+00:08:26,150 --> 00:08:30,990
+الرقم الظاهر تمام؟ okay
+
+103
+00:08:32,710 --> 00:08:38,090
+بنكمل 055 عرفنا ليش زي ما سألت انه ليش بنقسمها على
+
+104
+00:08:38,090 --> 00:08:50,730
+100 وهي قسمناها على 100، مظبوط؟
+
+105
+00:08:50,730 --> 00:08:55,190
+ايه،
+
+106
+00:08:55,190 --> 00:09:00,090
+يلا قبلوا بالأقل الحسبة 055 تقسيم 100، طلعت معاكم
+
+107
+00:09:00,090 --> 00:09:05,280
+إجابة؟طلعت نفس الإجابة هذه؟ مين ما طلعتش عنده
+
+108
+00:09:05,280 --> 00:09:08,940
+الإجابة هذه؟
+
+109
+00:09:08,940 --> 00:09:15,260
+3 0 5 5 تقسيم
+
+110
+00:09:15,260 --> 00:09:21,100
+100 صح في حد ما طلعتش معاه الإجابة هذه؟ طب خلصنا،
+
+111
+00:09:21,100 --> 00:09:27,180
+هلأ نيجي لل 8 نحكي تساوي التمانية تقسيم 360
+
+112
+00:09:36,450 --> 00:09:44,830
+لحظة طب تمانية تقسيم قبل
+
+113
+00:09:44,830 --> 00:09:48,790
+القانون لازم نخلص العمليات تمانية اقسموا تمانية
+
+114
+00:09:48,790 --> 00:09:55,490
+تقسيم تلاتمية وستين في حد ماعرفش اعملها هذه طب وين
+
+115
+00:09:55,490 --> 00:10:03,200
+المشكلة هذه خلصناها وهذه خلصناهاعشان نطبق القانون
+
+116
+00:10:03,200 --> 00:10:13,000
+يعني لازم هدول نخلصهم عشان نطبق القانون okay ايش
+
+117
+00:10:13,000 --> 00:10:18,440
+اللي ماصبوطش تمانية
+
+118
+00:10:18,440 --> 00:10:22,360
+تخسيم انه
+
+119
+00:10:22,360 --> 00:10:28,160
+هذه zero five five تخسيم مية كم طلع عندك صفر عشان
+
+120
+00:10:28,160 --> 00:10:33,630
+اشتغل الفرقيا انتبه يعني طلع غلط عارفة إيش معنى
+
+121
+00:10:33,630 --> 00:10:41,530
+الكلام هذا؟ انتبه يا بنات مافيش مشكلة هتا هلا
+
+122
+00:10:41,530 --> 00:10:48,170
+هيطلع الإجابة إذا كان الرقم هيك مثلا كان الرقم هيك
+
+123
+00:10:48,170 --> 00:10:52,990
+في بعض آلات حاسبة مابتظهرش هذا الرقم بالشكل هذا
+
+124
+00:10:52,990 --> 00:10:58,800
+فبتروحش بتسوي الآل حاسبة بتروحأكم .. أكم خانة
+
+125
+00:10:58,800 --> 00:11:02,260
+عندنا واحدة اتنين تلاتة أربعة خمسة بتعمل خمسة و نص
+
+126
+00:11:02,260 --> 00:11:06,620
+قص عشرة ناقص واحدة اتنين تلاتة أربعة خمس خانات قص
+
+127
+00:11:06,620 --> 00:11:10,860
+ناقص خمسة لأنه
+
+128
+00:11:10,860 --> 00:11:17,860
+أخدنا .. أخدنا الخانة لهيك أنا زيدت سفر okay لأ
+
+129
+00:11:17,860 --> 00:11:23,960
+عدوا أكم واحد اتنين تلاتة أربعة و هي الخمسةطبعا
+
+130
+00:11:23,960 --> 00:11:27,980
+فهي خمسة و نص و هاي النص اللي بوراها بتصير عشرة أس
+
+131
+00:11:27,980 --> 00:11:33,820
+ناقص خمسة طيب أس ثالث باربعة بنعملها أس ثالث
+
+132
+00:11:33,820 --> 00:11:38,900
+باربعة سفر سفر سفر خمسة خمسة عد الأكم سفر هان
+
+133
+00:11:38,900 --> 00:11:44,000
+أربعة أكم سفر هان تلاتة و بتحولها خمسة و نص أس
+
+134
+00:11:44,000 --> 00:11:50,960
+ناقص أربعة تعلمت كواب مرة لازم تكون دورة في ال ..
+
+135
+00:11:50,960 --> 00:11:56,930
+في القادة الحاسفة كواب مرةلو حكيت فاصة صفر صفر صفر
+
+136
+00:11:56,930 --> 00:12:01,630
+صفر صفر عدوهم
+
+137
+00:12:01,630 --> 00:12:08,410
+كيف الأقل حاسبة هتكتبهم؟ لأ الأخت اللي .. اللي
+
+138
+00:12:08,410 --> 00:12:14,350
+قالت غلط فضلك الأقل حاسبة كيف هتكتبها؟ أربع أربع
+
+139
+00:12:14,350 --> 00:12:17,910
+.. لأنه هذا في الامتحان مافيش إمكانية تحكي للأقل
+
+140
+00:12:17,910 --> 00:12:22,210
+حاسبة غلط يا أما أنت تستخدميش الأقل حاسبة صح يا
+
+141
+00:12:22,210 --> 00:12:26,910
+أما أنت بتطبيق غلطتفضلي هذا الرقم لما تكتبيه على
+
+142
+00:12:26,910 --> 00:12:30,690
+الآلة الحاسبة ..الآلة الحاسبة كيف بتقرأه؟ فهمناك
+
+143
+00:12:30,690 --> 00:12:36,870
+توقف .. يلا انت نفسك هيقول ان الآلة مظبوط ممكن
+
+144
+00:12:36,870 --> 00:12:39,830
+تعمل درر أربعة أو درر سن سابعة أو درر .. بس مش غلط
+
+145
+00:12:39,830 --> 00:12:42,670
+.. هذا صح .. ده جوا صح بس أنا مش عارف الانتحار ..
+
+146
+00:12:42,670 --> 00:12:45,870
+اه .. انا طب اكيد .. انا خاليك يعنى .. كيف الآلة
+
+147
+00:12:45,870 --> 00:12:50,190
+الحاسبة هتكتبها هذا؟ عشر أسنان .. خلقي هي لحالها
+
+148
+00:12:50,190 --> 00:12:57,030
+هتعرفOkay هلا مش عارفة إيش راح تسوي هلا عندنا واحد
+
+149
+00:12:57,030 --> 00:13:01,670
+اتنين عدّي معايا واحد اتنين تلاتة اربع خمسة ستة
+
+150
+00:13:01,670 --> 00:13:06,810
+ولمّا ايه نتيجة على الرقم ال digit الصحيح سبعة
+
+151
+00:13:06,810 --> 00:13:11,930
+فبيجي بحكي اربعة point تلاتة اص عشرة ماخص سبعة
+
+152
+00:13:11,930 --> 00:13:16,610
+فهمتي طبعا
+
+153
+00:13:16,610 --> 00:13:22,410
+ليش مش خلط يعني اه اه كمان مثال اه وضحت
+
+154
+00:13:24,910 --> 00:13:29,810
+واضحط فالمشكلة الأخطاء بتيجي مش من التطبيق الأخطاء
+
+155
+00:13:29,810 --> 00:13:38,330
+بتيجي من عدم استخدام الآلة الحاسبة بشكل صحيح الكل
+
+156
+00:13:38,330 --> 00:13:45,290
+قسم 8 على 360 بطلع اللي هو ايش point zero two two
+
+157
+00:13:45,290 --> 00:13:49,150
+two two two rounding بطلع هذا الرقم تمانية ستة
+
+158
+00:13:49,150 --> 00:13:49,590
+وتلاتين
+
+159
+00:13:52,680 --> 00:13:57,660
+انطبخ القانون يلا ذكروني ايش القانون واحد واحدة
+
+160
+00:13:57,660 --> 00:14:01,140
+واحدة
+
+161
+00:14:01,140 --> 00:14:10,900
+ال bar value ضرب واحد واحد معقص ال discount ضرب ال
+
+162
+00:14:10,900 --> 00:14:18,680
+maturity اصلا حاسبين احنا صح طيب بدنا نجرب اخدوا
+
+163
+00:14:18,680 --> 00:14:24,520
+بالكمأنا يمكن أعمل اشي غلط عساس ان انتوا ايش تنتبه
+
+164
+00:14:24,520 --> 00:14:28,100
+وين ممكن يصير الأخطاء احتمالات الأخطاء فيها انطبخ
+
+165
+00:14:28,100 --> 00:14:33,660
+المعادلة تساوي العشر تلاف هي العشر تلاف طبقوا
+
+166
+00:14:33,660 --> 00:14:39,700
+المعادلة انتوا على الأقل حاسب عشر تلاف ضرب الواحد
+
+167
+00:14:39,700 --> 00:14:45,230
+ناقص ال D ال ايش ال discountالـ discount اللي هو
+
+168
+00:14:45,230 --> 00:14:53,070
+حكينا zero zero zero five مظبوط ضرب اللي هو point
+
+169
+00:14:53,070 --> 00:14:59,030
+two two two two مظبوط هلأ هذه في احتمالات كبيرة
+
+170
+00:14:59,030 --> 00:15:02,690
+غلط فيها في
+
+171
+00:15:02,690 --> 00:15:05,170
+احتمالات كبيرة غلط فيها خاصة ان انتوا بتستخدموا
+
+172
+00:15:05,170 --> 00:15:08,530
+آلات حاسبة فيه priorities للأقواص فإذا أنا مااخدتش
+
+173
+00:15:08,530 --> 00:15:11,830
+بعين الاعتبار priorities للأقواص هيكون عندى حل غلط
+
+174
+00:15:11,830 --> 00:15:19,610
+طيببنقول هان ضرب انتبهوا معايا و راكزوا معايا و
+
+175
+00:15:19,610 --> 00:15:26,910
+تشوفوا احتمالات الخطأ وين صير العشر تلاف ضرب واحد
+
+176
+00:15:26,910 --> 00:15:32,510
+ناقص هذه
+
+177
+00:15:32,510 --> 00:15:35,230
+اللي هو البد ضرب
+
+178
+00:15:47,450 --> 00:15:53,430
+إيش رأيكم؟ مين
+
+179
+00:15:53,430 --> 00:16:01,470
+طلع عنده جواب زي هيك؟ مين
+
+180
+00:16:01,470 --> 00:16:05,770
+عنده طلع جواب زي هيك؟ okay مين ما طلعش عنده
+
+181
+00:16:05,770 --> 00:16:09,610
+الجواب؟ هورجيكوا إحتمالات إنه الجواب بيطلع غلط
+
+182
+00:16:09,610 --> 00:16:11,050
+طلعوا كيف؟
+
+183
+00:16:15,170 --> 00:16:24,770
+مين عنده طلع جواب زي هيك؟ طيب مين طلع عنده جواب زي
+
+184
+00:16:24,770 --> 00:16:30,610
+هيك؟ زي هيك؟ ايوة انا بدأ ارجعك كل احتمالات الخطأ
+
+185
+00:16:30,610 --> 00:16:36,030
+اللي ممكن تخطق فيها الاول
+
+186
+00:16:36,030 --> 00:16:40,910
+واحدة صح طيب هلأ هذي ايش معناه كلمة انه اللي حل
+
+187
+00:16:40,910 --> 00:16:44,190
+هيك نسي يحط الماقص اللي هو واحد ماقص
+
+188
+00:16:46,690 --> 00:17:05,230
+زي هيك مستحيل ماتحققليش حطينها okay
+
+189
+00:17:05,230 --> 00:17:10,030
+هلأ
+
+190
+00:17:10,030 --> 00:17:16,980
+بنات انتبهوا بس معايا لحظةكل .. في عندنا إحنا آلات
+
+191
+00:17:16,980 --> 00:17:24,020
+حاسبة .. في .. كل آلة حاسبة إلها شغلها الخاص فأنا
+
+192
+00:17:24,020 --> 00:17:26,940
+بأنصح شغلك أنه طالما أنتوا جايبين آلة حاسبة معاكم
+
+193
+00:17:26,940 --> 00:17:30,400
+الآن اتأكدوا أنه الجواب طلع صح ليش؟ لأنه في آلات
+
+194
+00:17:30,400 --> 00:17:34,660
+حاسبة بتعملش priorities مثلا لأشياء معينة وبالتالي
+
+195
+00:17:34,660 --> 00:17:39,640
+اتأكدوا أن الجواب طلع معاكم بهذا الشكل طيب، هلأ لو
+
+196
+00:17:39,640 --> 00:17:48,530
+إحنا بدنا نجرب شغلة تانيةلو نجرب مثلا ناخد ال 0.5
+
+197
+00:17:48,530 --> 00:17:56,770
+احنا أخدنا 0.55 نجرب اللي جانبه 0.05 يعني
+
+198
+00:17:56,770 --> 00:18:06,710
+نغير ل 0.58 طيب 0.58 okay
+
+199
+00:18:06,710 --> 00:18:09,970
+نغير
+
+200
+00:18:09,970 --> 00:18:12,190
+ل 0.43
+
+201
+00:18:16,740 --> 00:18:19,680
+نغير مثلا عندكم .. هاي الموجود .. هذا الموجود
+
+202
+00:18:19,680 --> 00:18:27,060
+ينقلنا .. سفر تلاتة خمسة مظبوط؟
+
+203
+00:18:27,060 --> 00:18:31,360
+طلع عندك حق .. صح؟ بس خدوا بقالكوا التقريب يعني
+
+204
+00:18:31,360 --> 00:18:34,440
+اللي هيفرق بس التقريب هنا اللي هي ممكن تسيطر ..
+
+205
+00:18:34,440 --> 00:18:38,640
+نغيّر التاريخ أه بنا نغيّر التاريخ صح؟ هنغيّر
+
+206
+00:18:38,640 --> 00:18:42,820
+التاريخ التاريخ
+
+207
+00:18:42,820 --> 00:18:48,310
+كام تبع السفر تلاتة خمسة؟ أربع و أربعينطلع مظبوط؟
+
+208
+00:18:48,310 --> 00:18:56,350
+طلعوا عليها هاي تاعة ال 035 اللي هي هذه ال 035 هي
+
+209
+00:18:56,350 --> 00:19:02,730
+هذه اللي عندنا 44 يوم تمام؟ الجواب تبعها زي ما
+
+210
+00:19:02,730 --> 00:19:11,530
+أنتوا شايفين 9999.57 مظبوط؟ okay طب حلوا ليه حاجة
+
+211
+00:19:11,530 --> 00:19:14,570
+دي و أنا هشوف في ال .. إذا في حد عنده خطأ في
+
+212
+00:19:14,570 --> 00:19:22,170
+الحاسوب هشوف وين بغلطاللي هو أخر واحدة اللي هو
+
+213
+00:19:22,170 --> 00:19:30,010
+0035 هذي هعلمكم إياها يلا
+
+214
+00:19:30,010 --> 00:19:33,290
+بسرعة عشان أجي أشوف ال .. إذا في حد عنده خطأ في
+
+215
+00:19:33,290 --> 00:19:34,870
+الأقل حاسب بس ييجي وينديني okay
+
+216
+00:19:42,390 --> 00:19:47,310
+أربعة و أربعة و أربعة و أربعة و أربعة و أربعة و
+
+217
+00:19:47,310 --> 00:19:50,070
+أربعة و أربعة
+
+218
+00:20:07,310 --> 00:20:14,730
+براكو براكو براكو
+
+219
+00:20:14,730 --> 00:20:20,470
+براكو براكو
+
+220
+00:20:20,470 --> 00:20:23,490
+براكو براكو
+
+221
+00:20:38,120 --> 00:20:43,390
+ماشي الحارة يا بناتعن أفضل يعني البنات اللي
+
+222
+00:20:43,390 --> 00:20:47,110
+ماشوفتش حلهم هم المش جايين .. مش جايبين آلة حاسبة
+
+223
+00:20:47,110 --> 00:20:51,750
+البنات اللي .. اللي ورجولي شغلهم تقريبا تسعة و
+
+224
+00:20:51,750 --> 00:20:54,310
+تسعين في المية حلهم صح تسعة و تسعين في المية من
+
+225
+00:20:54,310 --> 00:20:58,950
+اللي شوفتم صح، تمام؟ يعني بس يمكن واحدة بس برضه
+
+226
+00:20:58,950 --> 00:21:03,410
+عاودت و .. و الحل كان صح، تمام يا بنات؟ بالنسبة
+
+227
+00:21:03,410 --> 00:21:08,310
+للمش جايين .. جايبين آلة الحاسبة تبعتهمرجاء يعني
+
+228
+00:21:08,310 --> 00:21:11,610
+يتحمل يحطوا الحاسب جانب ال mobile عشان ما يتذكروش
+
+229
+00:21:11,610 --> 00:21:18,430
+ماشي الحال طيب حكينا
+
+230
+00:21:18,430 --> 00:21:22,070
+عن ال treasury bills نحكي على certificate of
+
+231
+00:21:22,070 --> 00:21:34,370
+deposits certificate
+
+232
+00:21:34,370 --> 00:21:43,710
+of deposits اللي هو شهادات الإدعىشهادات إيداع شو
+
+233
+00:21:43,710 --> 00:21:46,210
+الفرق بين ال certificates of deposits و الوداقة
+
+234
+00:21:46,210 --> 00:21:49,970
+العادية ال deposits إنه إحنا بنحط وديعة في ال bank
+
+235
+00:21:49,970 --> 00:21:55,530
+إلها وقت و فيه certificate فيها فيها شهادة بنعطيها
+
+236
+00:21:55,530 --> 00:21:59,650
+and this certificate of deposits is listed in the
+
+237
+00:21:59,650 --> 00:22:01,570
+financial market و كمان بتكون مدرجة في السوق
+
+238
+00:22:01,570 --> 00:22:06,750
+الماليفالورقة هذه اللي معناها ال certificate of
+
+239
+00:22:06,750 --> 00:22:10,830
+deposit we can sell this ممكن نبيعها in the
+
+240
+00:22:10,830 --> 00:22:13,750
+financial markets يعني ممكن نروح على السوق المالي
+
+241
+00:22:13,750 --> 00:22:17,910
+و نبيع الورقة اللي هي شهادة إيداع طب شو المقابل؟
+
+242
+00:22:17,910 --> 00:22:21,630
+المقابل ال certificate of deposit احنا نوضع مثلا
+
+243
+00:22:21,630 --> 00:22:28,490
+الف دولار أو مضاعفاتهم و بناخد فوائد عليهمإذا احنا
+
+244
+00:22:28,490 --> 00:22:32,310
+بنبيعه okay فطالما احنا حاملين الورقة هذه اللي هو
+
+245
+00:22:32,310 --> 00:22:34,910
+certificate of deposits معناه كلها بناخد عليها
+
+246
+00:22:34,910 --> 00:22:38,010
+فوائد طالما احنا حاملين هذه الورقة وغالبا بتكون
+
+247
+00:22:38,010 --> 00:22:42,670
+short term ال risk تبعها is greater than the
+
+248
+00:22:42,670 --> 00:22:47,070
+treasury bills أكثر من .. شوية مش كتيرis greater
+
+249
+00:22:47,070 --> 00:22:50,750
+than the treasury bills تمام؟ هذه وضحة certificate
+
+250
+00:22:50,750 --> 00:22:53,690
+of deposits طبعا ال certificates of deposits بي ..
+
+251
+00:22:53,690 --> 00:22:58,110
+بي .. بيعملهاش او بيصدرهاش الا بنوك certified
+
+252
+00:22:58,110 --> 00:23:02,970
+banks او highly qualified bank البنوك اللي ال ..
+
+253
+00:23:02,970 --> 00:23:05,930
+الملاءة الاقتمالية تبعتهم عالية بيقدروا يصدروا
+
+254
+00:23:05,930 --> 00:23:09,770
+اللي هو شهادات الإيداع طيب ال commercial papers في
+
+255
+00:23:09,770 --> 00:23:14,010
+حد يعرف ال commercial papers الأوراخ التجارية كيف
+
+256
+00:23:14,010 --> 00:23:15,430
+هذه فكرة الأوراخ التجارية؟
+
+257
+00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:25,200
+يلا مين قرأ عن أوراق تجارية؟ زي الكمبيلات .. okay
+
+258
+00:23:25,200 --> 00:23:33,440
+الشركات
+
+259
+00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:35,560
+الكبيرة .. اتفضلي
+
+260
+00:23:52,880 --> 00:23:58,880
+مثلا زي .. زي ما حكت أنه أنا لما بدي أصدر
+
+261
+00:23:58,880 --> 00:24:04,760
+commercial favors مثلا أنا محتاج أن أطلع حالي على
+
+262
+00:24:04,760 --> 00:24:11,640
+الشكلمحتاج انا مثلا short term خدوا بالك و احنا
+
+263
+00:24:11,640 --> 00:24:19,880
+محتاج short term انا بحاجة ل 100 ألف دولار بحاجة ل
+
+264
+00:24:19,880 --> 00:24:23,640
+100 ألف دولار مقابلهم بأصدر 100 ألف دولار اللي هو
+
+265
+00:24:23,640 --> 00:24:28,900
+CDs شهادات إيدها التزامات على ال 100 ألف دولار
+
+266
+00:24:28,900 --> 00:24:33,740
+هدول بنزل .. بنزلهم .. ببيعهم في السوق عبارة عن
+
+267
+00:24:33,740 --> 00:24:39,910
+شهادة إيدها وورقة مكتوب عليها ال bar valueنفترض
+
+268
+00:24:39,910 --> 00:24:43,650
+اللي هو ألف طبعا ألف أكم واحدة لازم أصدر معناه
+
+269
+00:24:43,650 --> 00:24:48,030
+كلام إذا كان ميت ألف لازم أصدر مية okay الألف
+
+270
+00:24:48,030 --> 00:24:53,290
+ومكتوب ال maturity date تاريخ الاستحقار تاريخ مثلا
+
+271
+00:24:53,290 --> 00:25:02,430
+تلاتين ستة 2013 طب هلأ إيه اللي بيستفيد ال
+
+272
+00:25:02,430 --> 00:25:07,650
+investors لما ال investors بدفع ألف دولار
+
+273
+00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:14,640
+للشركة طب ايش بيستفيد ال investor؟ ال investor هان
+
+274
+00:25:14,640 --> 00:25:17,200
+زي فكرة ال treasury bills زي فكرة ال treasury
+
+275
+00:25:17,200 --> 00:25:21,700
+bills ايش ال treasury bills حكينا فيها؟ بتنبع ب ..
+
+276
+00:25:21,700 --> 00:25:27,280
+بخصم اه اذا مابدفعش الف دولار للشركة بدفع اقل
+
+277
+00:25:27,280 --> 00:25:33,890
+فبدفع مثلا نحكي تسعمائة وسبعين دولاراليوم بدفع 970
+
+278
+00:25:33,890 --> 00:25:37,490
+دولار on the maturity date فى تاريخ الاستحقاق
+
+279
+00:25:37,490 --> 00:25:43,970
+receive 1000 دولار كام استفاد اذا؟ 30 هذه ال
+
+280
+00:25:43,970 --> 00:25:47,670
+commercial paper عادة
+
+281
+00:25:47,670 --> 00:25:51,930
+ممكن كمان ال big companies invest in this small
+
+282
+00:25:51,930 --> 00:25:58,090
+investors و ال big companiesال CDs is backed by
+
+283
+00:25:58,090 --> 00:26:02,610
+the .. by the banks مرات أن الشركة ما بتقدرش تعمل
+
+284
+00:26:02,610 --> 00:26:07,210
+marketing لل CDs .. لا عفوًا لل commercial papers،
+
+285
+00:26:07,210 --> 00:26:09,310
+ما بتقدرش تعمل marketing، ما بتقدرش تسوقهم،
+
+286
+00:26:09,310 --> 00:26:15,450
+تبيعهم، فعشان يسوقوهم فبطلبوا backed by the bank،
+
+287
+00:26:15,450 --> 00:26:20,170
+إيش backed؟ إنه يتم كفالة البنكيعني مثلا بالتل
+
+288
+00:26:20,170 --> 00:26:23,570
+شركة بالتل اتصالات بدها تصدر commercial paper
+
+289
+00:26:23,570 --> 00:26:27,690
+نازلاتهم على السوق مايريوش الناس يشتروهم بيخافوا
+
+290
+00:26:27,690 --> 00:26:30,690
+لان لو اشتروا ال .. اشتروا ال .. ال commercial
+
+291
+00:26:30,690 --> 00:26:34,790
+paper شو يضمنهم انه .. ان الشركة هتصدهم فبطلبوا
+
+292
+00:26:34,790 --> 00:26:38,910
+السوق المالي بيطلب ضمانة البنك بيسموها backed ..
+
+293
+00:26:38,910 --> 00:26:45,410
+backed okay backed شوفته كلمة packed packed يعني
+
+294
+00:26:46,570 --> 00:26:51,630
+بيدفعوا او بيحموا ال commercial paper by the banks
+
+295
+00:26:51,630 --> 00:26:55,990
+يعني ال bank هو المسئول في حال ان بيلتل مادفعتش
+
+296
+00:26:55,990 --> 00:27:01,350
+okay بيسموها backed بيحموا ال commercial paper
+
+297
+00:27:01,350 --> 00:27:05,890
+الأوراق التجارية يعني راحت بيلتل أصدرت أوراق
+
+298
+00:27:05,890 --> 00:27:10,090
+تجارية okay هل المستثمرين اجوا اشتروا الأوراق
+
+299
+00:27:10,090 --> 00:27:14,470
+التجارية بخاصة ما هي الضمانة ان ال بيلتل تدفع
+
+300
+00:27:15,370 --> 00:27:19,650
+الأوراق التجارية فيهم الاستحقاق مافيش ضمانة فالسوق
+
+301
+00:27:19,650 --> 00:27:23,550
+المالي بروح بيطلب من بالتل انه تحكي مع أهل البنوك
+
+302
+00:27:23,550 --> 00:27:30,330
+يعمل backed يعني يضمن ال commercial paper خوفا ما
+
+303
+00:27:30,330 --> 00:27:34,430
+عدم السداد طبعا تباع بخاصم زيها زي ال treasury
+
+304
+00:27:34,430 --> 00:27:38,030
+bills طبعا risk is higher risk than the
+
+305
+00:27:38,030 --> 00:27:41,610
+certificate of deposit مخاطر تبعتها أعلى من ال
+
+306
+00:27:41,610 --> 00:27:46,400
+certificate of depositالمخاطر تبعتها أعلى من
+
+307
+00:27:46,400 --> 00:27:51,320
+certificate of deposits اللي هو شهادات الإذاع اللي
+
+308
+00:27:51,320 --> 00:28:00,680
+تاوي حكينا فيها اتفضل اه
+
+309
+00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:07,960
+في طبعا انا متين وسبعين يوم يعني كام شهر متين
+
+310
+00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:14,550
+وسبعين يوم شهرين بتحكي عن تمان شهور أقل شيطب احنا
+
+311
+00:28:14,550 --> 00:28:20,410
+مثلنا اكم شهر؟ اكم شهر مثلنا؟ اربع شهور مثلنا
+
+312
+00:28:20,410 --> 00:28:25,530
+الواي تلاتين ستة الفين و تلاتاشر اه طبعا هذه قصيرة
+
+313
+00:28:25,530 --> 00:28:29,910
+الأجد قصيرة الأجد يعني ما .. ما يتم إصدار أكتر من
+
+314
+00:28:29,910 --> 00:28:36,270
+سنة اللي هو ما ال commercial paper okay طيب
+
+315
+00:28:36,270 --> 00:28:40,850
+bankers acceptance ال
+
+316
+00:28:40,850 --> 00:28:46,260
+bankers acceptance سمعتوا فيها؟اسمها القبولات
+
+317
+00:28:46,260 --> 00:28:52,720
+المصرفية بال
+
+318
+00:28:52,720 --> 00:29:00,340
+certificates
+
+319
+00:29:00,340 --> 00:29:07,800
+of deposit سؤالك لأ افريقيا ميحة و إذا هذا
+
+320
+00:29:07,800 --> 00:29:10,300
+بنناقشها بعد ما اخلص اللي خليني بس أركز على ال
+
+321
+00:29:10,300 --> 00:29:13,350
+bank is acceptanceبنركز على ال bank as acceptance
+
+322
+00:29:13,350 --> 00:29:17,650
+و بنرجع لسؤالك ال bank as acceptance بالعربي اسمها
+
+323
+00:29:17,650 --> 00:29:21,830
+القبولات المصرفية اه طب شو يعني .. هي عرفتوها
+
+324
+00:29:21,830 --> 00:29:24,730
+بالعربي طب إيش معناها القبولات المصرفية؟ إيش تعني؟
+
+325
+00:29:24,730 --> 00:29:31,170
+مابنعرفش فيها طب و من وين إجت؟ طبعا okay كاملي
+
+326
+00:29:31,170 --> 00:29:34,950
+البنت
+
+327
+00:29:34,950 --> 00:29:38,530
+المفروض تدرس تجارة دولية أنت بالاقتصاد جاي صح؟
+
+328
+00:29:38,530 --> 00:29:45,790
+سمعت بالقبولات المصرفية لك؟طب إيش هذه شغلتها؟ إيش
+
+329
+00:29:45,790 --> 00:29:50,290
+شغلتها؟ هي مهمة بالتجارة الخارجية إيش شغلتها ال ..
+
+330
+00:29:50,290 --> 00:29:54,430
+أه .. في حد بعرف؟ طب خليني أعطيكوا إيش الفكرة
+
+331
+00:29:54,430 --> 00:29:59,070
+أجربي يلا شوفوا ممكن تاجر يعني موجود برا عشان
+
+332
+00:29:59,070 --> 00:30:05,450
+يشتغل بتاعه بضمان من ال bank لازم ياخد قبول نصف من
+
+333
+00:30:05,450 --> 00:30:12,650
+ال bank تبعه للبلدهOkay يعني تقريبا انا انتبهوا بس
+
+334
+00:30:12,650 --> 00:30:15,670
+علينا انتبهوا علينا عشان تفهموها و ماتنسوهاش
+
+335
+00:30:15,670 --> 00:30:24,830
+خلينيكوا بس انتبهوا هالمعنى عشان ماتنسوهاش حتى
+
+336
+00:30:24,830 --> 00:30:32,570
+نرجع للتعريف و تعرفوا هلأ في عندي انا مصدر و في
+
+337
+00:30:32,570 --> 00:30:37,250
+عندي مستورد صح؟ اه بالظبط مين حكت اعتماد مستوردي؟
+
+338
+00:30:37,250 --> 00:30:41,510
+اه بال L Cبال Lc ال Lc اللي هو الاعتمادات
+
+339
+00:30:41,510 --> 00:30:49,730
+المستندية خلينا نوضحها بس هلأ مستورد فلسطيني ومصدر
+
+340
+00:30:49,730 --> 00:30:56,110
+صيني okay هلأ الفلسطيني بده من الصين بضاعة okay
+
+341
+00:30:56,110 --> 00:31:02,590
+يعني الصين بيبعت للفلسطين بضاعة و الفلسطين بيبعت
+
+342
+00:31:02,590 --> 00:31:05,790
+للصين ايش فلوس cash
+
+343
+00:31:08,470 --> 00:31:15,050
+or المبلغ عادة في التجارة الدولية مافيش يعني
+
+344
+00:31:15,050 --> 00:31:20,770
+القليل اللي بيدفعه cash مرة واحدة مرة واحدة فبروح
+
+345
+00:31:20,770 --> 00:31:25,230
+بفتحوا اعتماد مستندى اللي هو ايش ال LC اعتمادات
+
+346
+00:31:25,230 --> 00:31:28,170
+مستندية في الحالة اللي اعتمادات المستندية بيكون
+
+347
+00:31:28,170 --> 00:31:32,630
+البنك البنك الفلسطيني وليكم مثلا Bank of Palestine
+
+348
+00:31:32,630 --> 00:31:39,430
+اللي هو Bank فلسطين بيدمن المستورد لدىالبنك المصدر
+
+349
+00:31:39,430 --> 00:31:46,690
+بدفع المبلغ بدفع أياش؟ مقابل أنه البنك المصدر
+
+350
+00:31:46,690 --> 00:31:52,290
+بيضمن الصينية بداعة الإبداع okay هذا شغل كبير بس
+
+351
+00:31:52,290 --> 00:31:55,050
+احنا هذا جزء كبير يعني بدرسوها بفصل كامل هذا ال
+
+352
+00:31:55,050 --> 00:31:58,830
+process البسيطة هذه شايفينها بدرسوها بفصل كامل بس
+
+353
+00:31:58,830 --> 00:32:03,010
+احنا نفهم ال concept طب هل البنك الفلسطيني هذا
+
+354
+00:32:03,010 --> 00:32:07,510
+اللي هو ال bank of Palestine بروح بصدر check؟بصدر
+
+355
+00:32:07,510 --> 00:32:11,770
+ايش؟ شك هذا الشك يتم اصدره .. يصدره لمصلحته ايش؟
+
+356
+00:32:11,770 --> 00:32:17,370
+الصيني هذا الشك مكتوب عليه هكذا مكتوب عليه
+
+357
+00:32:17,370 --> 00:32:24,690
+accepted مقبول ايش يعني accepted؟ يعني it is
+
+358
+00:32:24,690 --> 00:32:28,850
+guaranteed that Bank of Palestine will pay to the
+
+359
+00:32:28,850 --> 00:32:32,130
+Bank of China this amount of money on this date
+
+360
+00:32:32,130 --> 00:32:37,070
+ضمان يا بنك الفلسطيني مش ضمانمش ضمان مافيش ضمان
+
+361
+00:32:37,070 --> 00:32:41,550
+هذه فيها دافع يعني بصدر شك البنك ل .. هنرجع
+
+362
+00:32:41,550 --> 00:32:46,910
+للتعريف البنك بيصدر شك لمصلحة البنك الآخر انه هذا
+
+363
+00:32:46,910 --> 00:32:51,450
+الشك مقبول is accepted بيكونوا حطوا ختم ال
+
+364
+00:32:51,450 --> 00:32:56,090
+accepted بالطريقة هذه شايفينها كيف؟ بال .. بعرض ال
+
+365
+00:32:56,090 --> 00:32:59,990
+accepted accepted يعني مقبول طالما البنك حط إشارة
+
+366
+00:32:59,990 --> 00:33:03,620
+accepted عليهمعناه الكلام مافيش إمكانية أنه يرجع
+
+367
+00:33:03,620 --> 00:33:09,040
+الشيك يعني hundred percent the bank will pay this
+
+368
+00:33:09,040 --> 00:33:14,860
+amount of money البنك الفلسطيني البنك الفلسطيني
+
+369
+00:33:14,860 --> 00:33:17,540
+البنك الفلسطيني البنك الفلسطيني البنك الفلسطيني
+
+370
+00:33:17,540 --> 00:33:17,660
+البنك الفلسطيني البنك الفلسطيني البنك الفلسطيني
+
+371
+00:33:17,660 --> 00:33:19,740
+البنك الفلسطيني البنك الفلسطيني البنك الفلسطيني
+
+372
+00:33:19,740 --> 00:33:21,660
+البنك الفلسطيني البنك الفلسطيني البنك الفلسطيني
+
+373
+00:33:21,660 --> 00:33:22,540
+البنك الفلسطيني البنك الفلسطيني البنك الفلسطيني
+
+374
+00:33:22,540 --> 00:33:25,500
+البنك الفلسطيني البنك الفلسطيني البنك الفلسطيني
+
+375
+00:33:25,500 --> 00:33:33,420
+البنك الفلسطيني البهي أمر من خلال ال bank by a
+
+376
+00:33:33,420 --> 00:33:37,220
+banks customer من خلال ال bank customer اللي هو
+
+377
+00:33:37,220 --> 00:33:42,440
+المستورد الفلسطيني هو بيقول له اصدرلي هذا الشيك to
+
+378
+00:33:42,440 --> 00:33:47,680
+pay a sum of money on a future date لدفع مبلغ معين
+
+379
+00:33:47,680 --> 00:33:54,540
+في المستقبل طيب لسه ما انتهتش القصة هلأ الشيك راح
+
+380
+00:33:54,540 --> 00:33:58,400
+لمين؟ هاي شايفين الشيك؟ هاي الشيك راح لمين؟
+
+381
+00:33:58,400 --> 00:34:03,810
+المكتوب acceptedراحنا مين؟ للصيني الصيني ها يوهان
+
+382
+00:34:03,810 --> 00:34:11,370
+okay واستلام الشيك okay هاي الشيك بيده هلا الشيك
+
+383
+00:34:11,370 --> 00:34:16,390
+هذا is in the future هذا في المستقبل يعني و ليكن
+
+384
+00:34:16,390 --> 00:34:21,450
+مثلا تاريخ ال maturity date سبعه مثلا خمستاشر
+
+385
+00:34:21,450 --> 00:34:27,010
+تلاتة الفين و تلتاشر هذا الصيني he needs money
+
+386
+00:34:27,010 --> 00:34:34,920
+محتاج مصاريbut he cannot liquidate the cheque now
+
+387
+00:34:34,920 --> 00:34:38,800
+مقدرش انه يعمله هالجات او ياخد قيمته هالجات he has
+
+388
+00:34:38,800 --> 00:34:42,860
+to discount this لازم يعمله discount يعمله خاصا
+
+389
+00:34:42,860 --> 00:34:46,200
+بروح على السوق المالي او بروح على البنوك و بقولهم
+
+390
+00:34:46,200 --> 00:34:48,520
+اتفضلوا هاي cheque و ليكن قيمة ال cheque مثلا
+
+391
+00:34:48,520 --> 00:34:52,840
+twenty thousand dollar عشرين الف دولار بروح على ال
+
+392
+00:34:52,840 --> 00:34:56,620
+cheque و بقولهم hi he is fine this is chequeفبقول
+
+393
+00:34:56,620 --> 00:34:59,920
+له تعالى ال bank this is the maturity of this
+
+394
+00:34:59,920 --> 00:35:07,480
+shake sir is on 15th of march 2013 هذا بيستحق ب 20
+
+395
+00:35:07,480 --> 00:35:12,520
+مارس في 13 you would like to liquidate this yes
+
+396
+00:35:12,520 --> 00:35:18,200
+but this is discounted لكن هذا عليه discount لازم
+
+397
+00:35:18,200 --> 00:35:22,440
+نخصمه would you mind to do thisيعني هل تمانع ذلك؟
+
+398
+00:35:22,440 --> 00:35:26,560
+no is fine بعمله discount بقوله okay so you get
+
+399
+00:35:26,560 --> 00:35:30,920
+nineteen five hundred thousand خدها التسعة عشر ألف
+
+400
+00:35:30,920 --> 00:35:35,220
+و خمسمية دولار this is yours البنك كام استفاد من
+
+401
+00:35:35,220 --> 00:35:39,020
+هذا الموضوع؟ خمسمية دولار شفته ال bank is
+
+402
+00:35:39,020 --> 00:35:43,280
+acceptance؟ طيب البنك كمان حط ال bank is
+
+403
+00:35:43,280 --> 00:35:48,300
+acceptance عنده و راح محتاج سيولةاحتاج السيولة
+
+404
+00:35:48,300 --> 00:35:52,260
+مثلا نحكي بواحد تلاتة هيعيد نفس الشغلة مع ناس مع
+
+405
+00:35:52,260 --> 00:35:56,040
+.. مع .. مع أخر okay إذا شفتوا ال bank is
+
+406
+00:35:56,040 --> 00:35:58,800
+acceptance كيف أنه ممكن تكون وسيلة من وسائل
+
+407
+00:35:58,800 --> 00:36:05,620
+الاستثمار طبعا هذا الكلام لعند الف وتسعمية أو نحكي
+
+408
+00:36:05,620 --> 00:36:09,740
+الفين وخمسة كان ينشغل في غزة هذا اسم ال bank is
+
+409
+00:36:09,740 --> 00:36:15,690
+acceptance في حد عنده سؤال فيها؟نجف عند هذا الحد
+
+410
+00:36:15,690 --> 00:36:18,270
+okay عشان نحكي المرة الفاتة عن ال euro dollar
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/np_37KBtGH8.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/np_37KBtGH8.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..296fec0349800d4129a5cecf1bbf271615c8373d
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/np_37KBtGH8.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1867 @@
+1
+00:00:21,430 --> 00:00:26,450
+بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم ال .. ال .. الأسبوع الماضي
+
+2
+00:00:26,450 --> 00:00:31,690
+حكينا بال .. بال money market instruments بال
+
+3
+00:00:31,690 --> 00:00:35,090
+money market instruments اليوم بدنا نحكي على ال
+
+4
+00:00:35,090 --> 00:00:38,190
+yield for the money market instruments يعني العائد
+
+5
+00:00:38,190 --> 00:00:41,350
+اللي ممكن نحصل عليه بال money market instruments و
+
+6
+00:00:41,350 --> 00:00:44,170
+كمان نحكي بال capital markets يعني هنا في هدفين
+
+7
+00:00:44,170 --> 00:00:48,410
+اليوم الهدف الأول أن احنا to show the yield of the 
+
+8
+00:00:48,410 --> 00:00:51,460
+money markets ال yield يعني العائدوالهدف الثاني
+
+9
+00:00:51,460 --> 00:00:54,420
+لدخول في موضوع جديد اللي هو اسمه capital markets
+
+10
+00:00:54,420 --> 00:01:04,220
+اللي هو أسواق رأس المال طبعا طيب نحاول بس نذكركم
+
+11
+00:01:04,220 --> 00:01:06,920
+بال money market securities زي ما أنتم شايفين
+
+12
+00:01:06,920 --> 00:01:10,340
+حكينا عن treasury bills اللي هو دولات الخزينة
+
+13
+00:01:10,340 --> 00:01:12,880
+للناس اللي ما كانوا حاضرين okay
+
+14
+00:01:14,890 --> 00:01:22,090
+ويجب أن تعرف bid و ask price و تقرأ bid و ask price
+
+15
+00:01:22,090 --> 00:01:30,670
+وتعرف كيف تستطيع تغيير من discount إلى نظام price لأن
+
+16
+00:01:30,670 --> 00:01:34,080
+في ال wall street يعني wall street اللي هي المكان
+
+17
+00:01:34,080 --> 00:01:37,780
+اللي بيظهروا فيه أسعار ال treasury bills or from
+
+18
+00:01:37,780 --> 00:01:40,800
+the dealers they cannot show you the prices
+
+19
+00:01:40,800 --> 00:01:44,840
+بأرقام ال prices بأرقام ال discount rates okay
+
+20
+00:01:44,840 --> 00:01:48,240
+so you should know how to convert the discount
+
+21
+00:01:48,240 --> 00:01:52,000
+rate into the prices certificate of deposit اللي
+
+22
+00:01:52,000 --> 00:01:55,900
+هو شهادات الإيداع ال commercial paper اللي هو
+
+23
+00:01:55,900 --> 00:02:00,200
+أوراق التجارية bankers acceptance اللي هو القبولات
+
+24
+00:02:00,200 --> 00:02:03,240
+المصرفية وحكينا أن القبولات المصرفية بتكون ناتجة
+
+25
+00:02:03,240 --> 00:02:07,200
+عن عملية التجارة الدولية okay بين المصدر و بين
+
+26
+00:02:07,200 --> 00:02:10,740
+المستورد و ال bankers acceptance تستخدم كأداة
+
+27
+00:02:10,740 --> 00:02:13,760
+من الأدوات الاستثمارية ال euro dollars حكينا ال euro
+
+28
+00:02:13,760 --> 00:02:17,520
+dollars اللي هي ال dollar outside the united
+
+29
+00:02:17,520 --> 00:02:20,960
+states و they trade on the euro dollar because it
+
+30
+00:02:21,120 --> 00:02:24,660
+has higher rate than the on-shore United States،
+
+31
+00:02:24,660 --> 00:02:28,900
+لها عوائد أعلى من ما لو كانت داخل الولايات
+
+32
+00:02:28,900 --> 00:02:32,500
+المتحدة، حكينا عن ال repos و ال reverses اللي هو
+
+33
+00:02:32,500 --> 00:02:38,580
+اتفاقية إعادة الشراء و طريقة العكسية
+
+34
+00:02:39,920 --> 00:02:43,000
+فحكينا على ال federal funds أن البنوك التجارية
+
+35
+00:02:43,000 --> 00:02:46,340
+بتكون محتفظة لدى البنك المركزي في حسابات حسابات
+
+36
+00:02:46,340 --> 00:02:49,260
+ممكن تكون فائض ممكن تكون عاجز وبالتالي يتم احتساب
+
+37
+00:02:49,260 --> 00:02:52,800
+ال federal funds حسب الفائض و العاجز كمان ملاحظة
+
+38
+00:02:52,800 --> 00:02:56,140
+مهمة أن ال federal funds rate is using as a
+
+39
+00:02:56,140 --> 00:03:02,250
+monetary policy يستخدم كسياسة نقدية so increase the
+
+40
+00:03:02,250 --> 00:03:05,750
+federal
+
+41
+00:03:05,750 --> 00:03:11,650
+funds rates it means motivating banks to keep more
+
+42
+00:03:11,650 --> 00:03:16,870
+funds in the central bank بيخليهم إنه يحتفظوا أكثر
+
+43
+00:03:16,870 --> 00:03:20,970
+من أموال لدى البنك المركزي and in this the central
+
+44
+00:03:20,970 --> 00:03:25,390
+bank absorbing the inflation rates بيحاول إنه يخفض
+
+45
+00:03:25,390 --> 00:03:28,370
+من معدلات التضخم okay
+
+46
+00:03:30,820 --> 00:03:35,800
+هلا نحكي عن ال yields on money market instruments ال
+
+47
+00:03:35,800 --> 00:03:40,320
+yield العائد زي ما حكينا أن العائد لازم يكون
+
+48
+00:03:40,320 --> 00:03:48,200
+انعكاس ل risk and return risk and return بدنا نعرف
+
+49
+00:03:48,200 --> 00:03:54,440
+which instrument has lower rate of return and
+
+50
+00:03:54,440 --> 00:03:58,950
+which instrument has higher rate of return ال
+
+51
+00:03:58,950 --> 00:04:04,290
+treasury bills تعتبر risk free it has the least
+
+52
+00:04:04,290 --> 00:04:09,230
+return and the least risk يعني تعتبر أقل مخاطر
+
+53
+00:04:09,230 --> 00:04:14,590
+وتعتبر أقل عائد ف treasury bills treasury bills هي
+
+54
+00:04:14,590 --> 00:04:18,850
+فيها risk free إيش يعني risk free risk free it
+
+55
+00:04:18,850 --> 00:04:20,950
+means خالية من المخاطر
+
+56
+00:04:24,190 --> 00:04:26,990
+because it's guaranteed from the .. from the
+
+57
+00:04:26,990 --> 00:04:30,030
+central bank or from .. from the governments محمية
+
+58
+00:04:30,030 --> 00:04:32,230
+من ال .. is protected by the governments محمية من
+
+59
+00:04:32,230 --> 00:04:35,690
+الحكومة okay and there is no default risk default
+
+60
+00:04:35,690 --> 00:04:39,110
+risk يعني مخاطر عدم السداد ما فيش مخاطر عدم السداد
+
+61
+00:04:39,110 --> 00:04:41,510
+الحكومة guaranteed the government is guaranteed to
+
+62
+00:04:41,510 --> 00:04:49,110
+pay back the treasury bills okay بعدين بيجي مثلا
+
+63
+00:04:49,110 --> 00:04:52,410
+ال CDs عارفين ال CDs اللي هو certificate of
+
+64
+00:04:52,410 --> 00:04:57,030
+deposit okay بعدين بيجي ال commercial paper اللي هو
+
+65
+00:04:57,030 --> 00:05:03,430
+الأوراق التجارية بعدين بيجي عندنا اللي هو ال
+
+66
+00:05:03,430 --> 00:05:08,270
+repurchase agreement agreement وننساش أنه in
+
+67
+00:05:08,270 --> 00:05:10,930
+between ممكن ييجي اللي هو ال bankers acceptance
+
+68
+00:05:10,930 --> 00:05:15,590
+bankers acceptance عارفين ال bankers acceptance
+
+69
+00:05:15,590 --> 00:05:20,370
+اللي هو القبولات المصرفية معناه الكلام is زي ما
+
+70
+00:05:20,370 --> 00:05:24,870
+أنتم شايفين زي ما أنتم شايفين على ال .. زي ما
+
+71
+00:05:24,870 --> 00:05:32,410
+أنتم شايفين هاد ال area هاد
+
+72
+00:05:32,410 --> 00:05:38,110
+ال area شايفينها المنطقة هادي منطقة تتميز بأن
+
+73
+00:05:38,110 --> 00:05:43,250
+مخاطرها منخفضة okay وعائدها منخفض لأن قبل قليل
+
+74
+00:05:43,250 --> 00:05:45,930
+حنحكي بال capital market ال capital market
+
+75
+00:05:45,930 --> 00:05:50,810
+starting from this from here it includes higher
+
+76
+00:05:50,810 --> 00:05:55,330
+risk and higher return فهذه introduction عشان نحكي
+
+77
+00:05:55,330 --> 00:05:59,150
+بال .. بال capital market إذا again كل ما احنا
+
+78
+00:05:59,150 --> 00:06:03,610
+بنزيد العائد هتزيد المخاطر يعني زي ما أنتم شايفين
+
+79
+00:06:03,610 --> 00:06:07,410
+يعني مثلا ال commercial paper العائد بتاعها شوفوا
+
+80
+00:06:07,410 --> 00:06:14,750
+العائد العائد هي أعلى من ال treasury bills هال
+
+81
+00:06:14,750 --> 00:06:18,570
+treasury bills وهي ال .. ال .. ال commercial paper
+
+82
+00:06:18,570 --> 00:06:24,100
+ليش؟ لأن مخاطرها أعلى فكويس يعني مثلا زي ما هان
+
+83
+00:06:24,100 --> 00:06:26,260
+أخت سألت إيش ممكن يكون فيه أسئلة في الامتحانات
+
+84
+00:06:26,260 --> 00:06:31,820
+ممكن نسأل أنه which security hold higher rate of
+
+85
+00:06:31,820 --> 00:06:38,200
+return and why for instance if we say about if we
+
+86
+00:06:38,200 --> 00:06:44,860
+talk about the the CDs why CDs has lower rate of
+
+87
+00:06:44,860 --> 00:06:48,520
+return than the repurchase agreement for instance
+
+88
+00:06:51,360 --> 00:06:56,940
+لأ ليش هي أقل مخاطر أقل مخاطر ممكن نحكي لو ال
+
+89
+00:06:56,940 --> 00:07:01,580
+return ما هو ليش لو ال return و ليش عائد مخفض if
+
+90
+00:07:01,580 --> 00:07:05,220
+you read between lines إذا بتفهموا بين السطور إن
+
+91
+00:07:05,220 --> 00:07:09,220
+ال .. ال CDs is backed by the .. by the central
+
+92
+00:07:09,220 --> 00:07:12,580
+bank or by .. by the government or backed by the
+
+93
+00:07:12,580 --> 00:07:17,340
+.. the banks يعني محمية من قبل البنوك طب why the
+
+94
+00:07:17,340 --> 00:07:22,460
+treasury bills؟has risk free comparing with the
+
+95
+00:07:22,460 --> 00:07:27,060
+commercial paper ليش ال treasury bills مخاطرها أقل
+
+96
+00:07:27,060 --> 00:07:30,560
+من ال commercial paper من من من ال governments
+
+97
+00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:33,700
+because it's guaranteed by the governments and it
+
+98
+00:07:33,700 --> 00:07:38,120
+has no default risk default risk ما عليهاش مخاطر عدم
+
+99
+00:07:38,120 --> 00:07:41,960
+الاسترداد okay يعني هاي المواضيع اللي احنا we can
+
+100
+00:07:41,960 --> 00:07:48,000
+ask around this طيب
+
+101
+00:07:53,310 --> 00:07:56,490
+نحكي على the .. the .. the capital markets نيجي
+
+102
+00:07:56,490 --> 00:08:01,850
+نحكي على ال capital markets the capital markets we
+
+103
+00:08:01,850 --> 00:08:04,510
+classify the capital market in the chapter one
+
+104
+00:08:04,510 --> 00:08:13,010
+into three main markets bond market okay or let's
+
+105
+00:08:13,010 --> 00:08:17,390
+say equity markets, debt markets and derivatives
+
+106
+00:08:17,390 --> 00:08:20,330
+هم الذاكرين لما حكينا الأسواق رأس المال اللي لها
+
+107
+00:08:20,330 --> 00:08:27,160
+ثلاثة أنواع debt market أسواق الديون equity market و
+
+108
+00:08:27,160 --> 00:08:30,000
+ال derivatives هدول الثلاثة أنواع من اللي أكتبلكم
+
+109
+00:08:30,000 --> 00:08:35,720
+بيهم كمان مرة بس للتسجيل ال
+
+110
+00:08:35,720 --> 00:08:41,560
+capital market هي .. فيها ثلاثة أنواع debts هي أقل
+
+111
+00:08:41,560 --> 00:08:49,340
+مخاطر بعدين عندنا ال equity مخاطرها أعلى شوية و
+
+112
+00:08:49,340 --> 00:08:51,700
+بعدين آخر شيء اللي هو ال derivatives
+
+113
+00:08:55,270 --> 00:08:57,650
+طبعا ال derivatives عارفين هال derivatives اللي هو
+
+114
+00:08:57,650 --> 00:09:02,430
+الأشياء المشتقات طبعا المشتقات زي ما أنتم شايفين
+
+115
+00:09:02,430 --> 00:09:07,210
+أعلى مخاطر مقارنة مع ال debts market ومقارنة مع ال
+
+116
+00:09:07,210 --> 00:09:14,550
+equity market هنبدأ نحكي بال debts markets هنبدأ
+
+117
+00:09:14,550 --> 00:09:17,030
+نعمل classifications لل debts market ال debts
+
+118
+00:09:17,030 --> 00:09:19,370
+markets أهم سوق في ال debts markets هو ال bond
+
+119
+00:09:19,370 --> 00:09:23,450
+markets يعني لو جينا هنا ال debt market أهم the
+
+120
+00:09:23,450 --> 00:09:27,170
+most important market in the debt market is the
+
+121
+00:09:27,170 --> 00:09:35,430
+bond market سوق السندات يعني مثلا خلينا نرجع
+
+122
+00:09:35,430 --> 00:09:46,270
+للميزانية العامة balance of sheets لأي شركة هاي
+
+123
+00:09:46,270 --> 00:09:49,090
+ال assets و هاي ال liabilities
+
+124
+00:09:52,160 --> 00:09:56,920
+Okay هذا المكان هو ال current assets هنا وهنا
+
+125
+00:09:56,920 --> 00:10:00,100
+current liabilities current assets وهنا current
+
+126
+00:10:00,100 --> 00:10:06,160
+liabilities هنا fixed assets okay
+
+127
+00:10:06,160 --> 00:10:14,460
+وهنا في شغلتين long term liabilities okay
+
+128
+00:10:14,460 --> 00:10:18,740
+long term liabilities وعندي اللي هو ايش ال equity
+
+129
+00:10:22,500 --> 00:10:28,100
+Equity and shareholder's ال current assets is funded
+
+130
+00:10:28,100 --> 00:10:31,280
+by the current liabilities يعني احنا ال current
+
+131
+00:10:31,280 --> 00:10:34,120
+assets الأصول المتداولة بنموّلها من وين؟ من الأصول
+
+132
+00:10:34,120 --> 00:10:37,720
+.. من ال .. من الاتزامات المتداولة ال fixed assets
+
+133
+00:10:37,720 --> 00:10:41,120
+ال machines و ال equipments بنموّلهم من وين؟
+
+134
+00:10:41,120 --> 00:10:46,020
+بنموّلهم من جانبين من ال long term liabilities and
+
+135
+00:10:46,020 --> 00:10:50,740
+equity the bonds market is located under long term
+
+136
+00:10:50,740 --> 00:10:54,840
+liabilities ال long term زي ما أخدته بال accounting
+
+137
+00:10:54,840 --> 00:10:58,940
+في المحاسبة يعني أنا مثلا بدي أعمل expansion
+
+138
+00:10:58,940 --> 00:11:01,740
+عارفين شو معنى expansion؟ expansion يعني أعمل توسع
+
+139
+00:11:01,740 --> 00:11:06,780
+أمامي خيارين يا إما أنا بستخدم ديون يا إما بستخدم
+
+140
+00:11:06,780 --> 00:11:09,540
+حقوق ملكية يعني مصدر أسهم أو بعمل mixing between
+
+141
+00:11:09,540 --> 00:11:14,640
+them أو بعمل خلط من أتهم يعني مثلا ال expansion
+
+142
+00:11:14,640 --> 00:11:17,640
+بيكلفني مليون دولار بدي أعمل هنا expansion مثلا
+
+143
+00:11:17,640 --> 00:11:23,790
+بدي أشتري new machines بيكلفني مثلا مليون دولار بدي
+
+144
+00:11:23,790 --> 00:11:27,150
+one million one million ممكن احكي انه half million
+
+145
+00:11:27,150 --> 00:11:30,450
+five hundred thousands from the long term
+
+146
+00:11:30,450 --> 00:11:33,830
+liabilities and the rest from equity يعني خمسمية
+
+147
+00:11:33,830 --> 00:11:36,770
+أخدها من ال debts و خمسمية اخدها من ايه من ال
+
+148
+00:11:36,770 --> 00:11:41,070
+equity طب الخمسمية how we can use the five hundred
+
+149
+00:11:41,070 --> 00:11:44,450
+او how we can get the five hundred we can issue
+
+150
+00:11:44,450 --> 00:11:50,270
+bonds ممكن نصدر سندات okay يعني كمان مرة انه انا
+
+151
+00:11:50,270 --> 00:11:54,460
+بحتاج expansion I need one million بحتاج one
+
+152
+00:11:54,460 --> 00:11:58,680
+million so I have two options use the long term
+
+153
+00:11:58,680 --> 00:12:02,120
+liabilities or equity or mixing between them يا
+
+154
+00:12:02,120 --> 00:12:05,800
+أما بستخدم هذي يا هذي يا أما ب .. بعمل خلط من أتم
+
+155
+00:12:05,800 --> 00:12:09,180
+so for instance we decide to issue five hundred
+
+156
+00:12:09,180 --> 00:12:14,260
+thousands by using bonds أصدر سندات إنه بدأ أنا
+
+157
+00:12:14,260 --> 00:12:20,520
+أمول المشروع نص المشروع بالدانيأدى مثلا من الbank
+
+158
+00:12:20,520 --> 00:12:23,880
+أو أعمل مرابحة أو الطريقة اللى .. اللى بتناسبني
+
+159
+00:12:23,880 --> 00:12:29,260
+اللى أصدر سندات فى حد عرف ال .. السندات قبلهاك
+
+160
+00:12:29,260 --> 00:12:34,140
+أكيد إيش what it means bonds اتفضلى اللى هو ..
+
+161
+00:12:34,140 --> 00:12:38,940
+الشخص ما بيبقى السندات اللى هو ال game طبعا ادت ..
+
+162
+00:12:38,940 --> 00:12:41,720
+ادت .. طبعا ادت .. طبعا ادت .. طبعا ادت .. طبعا
+
+163
+00:12:41,720 --> 00:12:42,300
+ادت .. طبعا ادت .. طبعا ادت .. طبعا ادت .. طبعا
+
+164
+00:12:42,300 --> 00:12:42,600
+ادت .. طبعا ادت .. طبعا ادت .. طبعا ادت .. طبعا
+
+165
+00:12:42,600 --> 00:12:47,620
+ادت .. طبعا ادت .. طبعا ادت .. طبعا ادت .. طب
+
+166
+00:12:51,190 --> 00:12:57,350
+المدة هاي كام هتكون احتمالها؟ سنة طب إذا شو الفرق
+
+167
+00:12:57,350 --> 00:13:00,890
+بين ال money market وبين capital market if you
+
+168
+00:13:00,890 --> 00:13:05,180
+save one year؟ فبتصير money market في الحالة دي صح؟
+
+169
+00:13:05,180 --> 00:13:09,320
+so it is greater than one year هي أكتر من سنة ممكن
+
+170
+00:13:09,320 --> 00:13:12,780
+تصل عشر سنين ممكن تصل تلاتين سنة في موعد استحقاق
+
+171
+00:13:12,780 --> 00:13:17,840
+السنة في موعد استحقاق انا بتدفع ألف و مئة سنة أنا
+
+172
+00:13:17,840 --> 00:13:23,170
+أخدت بألفيعني حسب نسبة .. كاملة مش مشكلة .. انا
+
+173
+00:13:23,170 --> 00:13:29,190
+بنفعه بالنسبة للزيادة فمصدر الصناد بكون استفاد من
+
+174
+00:13:29,190 --> 00:13:36,370
+الصناد اللي هو .. مصدر الصناد؟ ايوة ال investor مش
+
+175
+00:13:36,370 --> 00:13:38,970
+مصدر الصناد المصدر الصناد هو بصدر الصناد عشان يخسر
+
+176
+00:13:38,970 --> 00:13:45,310
+على الفلوس ايوة الوضع الطبيعي ان انا امول الأصول
+
+177
+00:13:45,310 --> 00:13:49,530
+المتداولة من الخصوم المتداولة مظبوط؟ مظبوط الان
+
+178
+00:13:49,530 --> 00:13:52,850
+بالنسبة لتعوين المحاسبة بيحكوا انه انا الأصول
+
+179
+00:13:52,850 --> 00:13:56,490
+متداولة مثلا عندي مخزون المخزون انا بدأ اموّل
+
+180
+00:13:56,490 --> 00:13:59,650
+مخزون يعني بدأ انا اشري مخزون المخزون وين؟ أصول
+
+181
+00:13:59,650 --> 00:14:03,570
+متداولة ولا أصول ثابتة أصول متداولة بسألك انت
+
+182
+00:14:03,570 --> 00:14:07,770
+متداولة متداولة اه الاصول المتداولة أمامي خيارين
+
+183
+00:14:07,770 --> 00:14:11,950
+يا اما انا اموّلها من أصول من خصوم متداولة اللي هو
+
+184
+00:14:11,950 --> 00:14:15,620
+الاتزامات زي ما انت شايفها من الجانب هذا او من
+
+185
+00:14:15,620 --> 00:14:20,360
+الجانب هذا اللي هو الثابتة من الاتزامات طويلة
+
+186
+00:14:20,360 --> 00:14:24,560
+الأجل طبعا مش منطق انا اروح مخزون امول من أصول او
+
+187
+00:14:24,560 --> 00:14:29,320
+من الاتزامات طويلة الأجل يعني مانفعش مثلا انا بدى
+
+188
+00:14:29,320 --> 00:14:34,160
+اشري مخزون اروح اصدر سندات مانفع فبروح انا ايش من
+
+189
+00:14:34,160 --> 00:14:39,920
+الاتزامات متداولة okay طيبهذه الاتزانات المتداولة
+
+190
+00:14:39,920 --> 00:14:44,020
+ايش الأسواق بتاعتها اللي حكيناها الأسبوع الفاتر و
+
+191
+00:14:44,020 --> 00:14:48,900
+أعطيناك مقدمة عن الأسبوع هذا اللي هي عندك ال
+
+192
+00:14:48,900 --> 00:14:51,740
+commercial paper ممكن نصدر commercial paper okay
+
+193
+00:14:51,740 --> 00:14:56,700
+ممكن bankers acceptance إذا موجودة عندنا هاي ال ..
+
+194
+00:14:56,700 --> 00:15:00,920
+الوسائل في الخصوم المتداولة هاي بيسموها ال
+
+195
+00:15:00,920 --> 00:15:04,160
+matching أنه أنا بدير الأصول المتداولة من الخصوم
+
+196
+00:15:04,160 --> 00:15:08,660
+المتداولة نيجي نحكي على الأصول الثابتة هان، لما أنا
+
+197
+00:15:08,660 --> 00:15:12,340
+بدي أشري مكان، machines و equipments، من وين بدي
+
+198
+00:15:12,340 --> 00:15:15,980
+أشريهم؟
+
+199
+00:15:15,980 --> 00:15:20,860
+أنا لما بدي أشري مكينة، من وين بدي أشري المكينة؟
+
+200
+00:15:20,860 --> 00:15:26,160
+مصادر التمويل، إيش أنواع مصادر التمويل؟ طويلة و
+
+201
+00:15:26,160 --> 00:15:28,500
+قصيرة الأجل، إيش القصير الأجل؟
+
+202
+00:15:34,250 --> 00:15:36,910
+قصيرة الأجل ايش و هي؟ القروض قصيرة الأجل اللي هي
+
+203
+00:15:36,910 --> 00:15:39,250
+موجودة في ال money market ولا ال capital market؟
+
+204
+00:15:39,250 --> 00:15:41,270
+لأ في ال money market في ال money market طيب خلينا
+
+205
+00:15:41,270 --> 00:15:43,550
+نركز بال capital market ايش عندنا option بال
+
+206
+00:15:43,550 --> 00:15:46,250
+capital market؟ ايش في عندنا خيارات بال capital
+
+207
+00:15:46,250 --> 00:15:50,710
+market؟ السندات لإن انت قلت انه ممكن تكون عشر سنين
+
+208
+00:15:50,710 --> 00:15:54,930
+عشرين سنة okay سندات و ايش كمان؟ غير السندات
+
+209
+00:15:58,620 --> 00:16:02,160
+إيش غير السندات؟ إحنا حكينا في عندنا ممكن يكون
+
+210
+00:16:02,160 --> 00:16:06,100
+سوقين هاي الموجودين اللي عندك في عندك شغلتين long
+
+211
+00:16:06,100 --> 00:16:10,760
+term liabilities و .. و .. و كمان شغلة لأ اجريها
+
+212
+00:16:10,760 --> 00:16:16,640
+منيح equity ايش يعني equity؟ معناه حقوق ملكية
+
+213
+00:16:16,640 --> 00:16:20,740
+طبعا؟ فأنا يا أما بستخدم ال long term liabilities
+
+214
+00:16:20,740 --> 00:16:24,700
+اللي هو الديون طوية للأجن أو بستخدم حقوق ملكية ال
+
+215
+00:16:24,700 --> 00:16:29,120
+long term liabilities أي سوقها ده سوق سندات طبعا؟
+
+216
+00:16:29,120 --> 00:16:32,320
+فعلى سوق السندات اللي هو the .. the bond market
+
+217
+00:16:32,320 --> 00:16:38,000
+كيف أنا بطرح السندات؟ أنا واضح للكلام؟ فهمت
+
+218
+00:16:38,000 --> 00:16:42,180
+الخريطة هذه؟ مين مش فاهمها؟ الخريطة .. هذه الخريطة
+
+219
+00:16:43,130 --> 00:16:45,850
+طب هلا وصلنا لعند ال bond market اللي هو أسواق
+
+220
+00:16:45,850 --> 00:16:49,530
+سندات طوية الأجل بدأ أصدر سند كيف قالية إصدار
+
+221
+00:16:49,530 --> 00:16:52,810
+السند قالية إصدار السند إن الشركة قررت هان كام
+
+222
+00:16:52,810 --> 00:16:58,790
+تصدر 500 ألف دولار محتاجة لمليون لتعمل توسع 500
+
+223
+00:16:58,790 --> 00:17:04,870
+ألف هتكون ديون و 500 ألف هتكون equity طب كيف يتم
+
+224
+00:17:04,870 --> 00:17:08,870
+إصدار السند إصدار السند خليني أبص لحظة إصدار السند
+
+225
+00:17:08,870 --> 00:17:11,210
+بيكون
+
+226
+00:17:13,760 --> 00:17:20,660
+هذا هو سند السند فيه له bar value يكون له قيمة
+
+227
+00:17:20,660 --> 00:17:27,260
+اسمية القيمة الاسمية مثلا ممكن يكون الف دولار يعني
+
+228
+00:17:27,260 --> 00:17:29,880
+إذا كان القيمة الاسمية الف دولار أكم سند لازم أصدر
+
+229
+00:17:29,880 --> 00:17:34,360
+خليني أعينك السؤال إذا كان القيمة الاسمية للسند
+
+230
+00:17:34,360 --> 00:17:38,200
+أنا محتاج لخمسمية ألف دولار إذا كان القيمة الاسمية
+
+231
+00:17:38,200 --> 00:17:41,860
+للسند الف دولار أكم سند لازم أصدر لأ هي خليها
+
+232
+00:17:43,260 --> 00:17:49,320
+رياضية بسيطة إذا كان قيمة السند ألف دولار و أنا
+
+233
+00:17:49,320 --> 00:17:54,380
+محتاج خمسمية ألف دولار أكم سند لازم أصدر؟ خمسمية
+
+234
+00:17:54,380 --> 00:17:59,600
+إذا لازم أصدر خمسمية سند طيب هل ال bar value
+
+235
+00:17:59,600 --> 00:18:02,880
+واضحة؟ ميت ألف ال bar value فيه كمان شغل لازم
+
+236
+00:18:02,880 --> 00:18:07,740
+نعرفها اللي هو ال coupon rate coupon rate إيش ال
+
+237
+00:18:07,740 --> 00:18:12,150
+coupon rate؟ اللي هو الفائدة الكوبونية الـ
+
+238
+00:18:12,150 --> 00:18:19,070
+corporate rate نفترض 8% ايش يعني 8%؟ كل سنة حامل
+
+239
+00:18:19,070 --> 00:18:22,610
+السند اللي هو ال investor اللي بديش للسند لازم
+
+240
+00:18:22,610 --> 00:18:28,170
+يحصل 8% على قيمة السند كل نهاية السند كل نهاية
+
+241
+00:18:28,170 --> 00:18:31,490
+السنة بديه يحصل على 8% مقابل ان هو ايش حصل على
+
+242
+00:18:31,490 --> 00:18:35,770
+السند بعدين في عندنا شغلة اسمها maturity dates
+
+243
+00:18:36,820 --> 00:18:41,060
+التاريخ الاستحقاق اليوم احنا في سنة 2013 نفترض انه
+
+244
+00:18:41,060 --> 00:18:51,260
+يبدو ي 31 12 2023 يعني تقريبا اننا حوالي عشر سنوات
+
+245
+00:18:51,260 --> 00:18:56,420
+عم بالسند كل سنة ال investor حامل السند هيحصل على
+
+246
+00:18:56,420 --> 00:19:02,580
+كام؟ هيحصل على 8% من قيمة السند طبعا في سندات .. في
+
+247
+00:19:02,580 --> 00:19:08,740
+سندات بتدفع annual interest فائدة سنوية و في سندات
+
+248
+00:19:08,740 --> 00:19:14,700
+بتدفع semi-annual اللي هو نصف سنوية يعني لما تكون
+
+249
+00:19:14,700 --> 00:19:17,240
+نصف سنوية تمانية في المية كده ش ندفع كل ست شهور
+
+250
+00:19:17,240 --> 00:19:24,920
+اربعة في المية okay طيب هلأ فهمتي هذا السند كيف
+
+251
+00:19:24,920 --> 00:19:26,040
+يتم التعامل فيه؟
+
+252
+00:19:33,710 --> 00:19:38,290
+تم إصدار السند من قبل نفطرة شركة من الشركات مثلا
+
+253
+00:19:38,290 --> 00:19:46,110
+شركة Badico Badico محتاجة هذا التمويل الشركة 
+
+254
+00:19:46,110 --> 00:19:50,350
+الفلسطينية طبعا هذه أصدرت السند تم إصدار السند
+
+255
+00:19:50,350 --> 00:19:55,650
+السند هلأ وين بروح؟ على الـ financial markets حكينا
+
+256
+00:19:55,650 --> 00:19:59,490
+إنه ممنوع إن الشركات تتعامل مباشرة مع الـ
+
+257
+00:19:59,490 --> 00:20:02,190
+individuals مع الـ investors لازم يكون وين؟ إيش في
+
+258
+00:20:02,190 --> 00:20:06,390
+النص؟ financial intermediaries أو dealers بروحوا
+
+259
+00:20:06,390 --> 00:20:08,510
+طبعا الـ financial market اللي هم عندنا الـ dealers
+
+260
+00:20:08,510 --> 00:20:15,330
+and they market this بسوقوه ببيعوه في السوق بيجي
+
+261
+00:20:15,330 --> 00:20:19,350
+الـ investors هاي الـ investors okay بيجي الـ
+
+262
+00:20:19,350 --> 00:20:23,830
+investors بشتريوا السندات بدفعوا كام كام لازم
+
+263
+00:20:23,830 --> 00:20:27,820
+يدفعوا الـ investors بيدفعوا ألف دولار قيمة السند
+
+264
+00:20:27,820 --> 00:20:33,100
+بيدفعوا الـ par value لحظوا
+
+265
+00:20:33,100 --> 00:20:38,060
+هنا pay to mean to the Badico بدفعوا يعني خلّيني
+
+266
+00:20:38,060 --> 00:20:44,920
+نمشي مع السهم بدفعوا لـ Badico ألف دولار ضرب خمس
+
+267
+00:20:44,920 --> 00:20:50,160
+مائة خمس مائة سند احنا
+
+268
+00:20:50,160 --> 00:20:54,590
+بنطرحه في السوق okay و بنشوف مين بدي يشتريه حسب
+
+269
+00:20:54,590 --> 00:20:59,210
+الطلبة نفترض إنه احنا كنا حظنا منيح و تم بيع
+
+270
+00:20:59,210 --> 00:21:03,730
+الإصدار في 500 سند أتبيعناهم في الـ 500 ألف
+
+271
+00:21:03,730 --> 00:21:08,950
+أخدناهم طبعا الـ dealer هياخد عمولة بسيطة مقابل هو
+
+272
+00:21:08,950 --> 00:21:15,830
+marketing the bonds مقابل أنه سوق السندات خلصنا الـ
+
+273
+00:21:15,830 --> 00:21:21,550
+process هذا طيب هلأ Badico كل نهاية السنة إيش راح
+
+274
+00:21:21,550 --> 00:21:25,680
+تدفع؟ هتدفع اللي هو الـ fixed income اللي هو ان
+
+275
+00:21:25,680 --> 00:21:31,120
+الفائدة هيلاحظوا ثمانية في المية ضرب الـ par value
+
+276
+00:21:31,120 --> 00:21:35,980
+الـ par value كام؟ ألف هتدفعها للـ investors شوفوا
+
+277
+00:21:35,980 --> 00:21:44,400
+اتجاه السهم الفائدة
+
+278
+00:21:44,400 --> 00:21:47,900
+اللي هي ثمانية في المية هي الـ corporate rates ضرب
+
+279
+00:21:47,900 --> 00:21:51,320
+الألف دولار الـ par value اخدوا اللي هو عندكم
+
+280
+00:21:51,320 --> 00:21:54,250
+ثمانية في المية ضرب ألف كام؟ ثمانين دولار اه
+
+281
+00:21:54,250 --> 00:21:58,930
+فهياخدوا ثمانين دولار قاني ولا هادي اذا كانت semi
+
+282
+00:21:58,930 --> 00:22:03,650
+قاني ولا هاياخدوا أربعين دولار كل ست شهور تنزل في
+
+283
+00:22:03,650 --> 00:22:09,170
+حسابهم في البنك طيب
+
+284
+00:22:09,170 --> 00:22:15,630
+بعد هيك هيصير بالـ
+
+285
+00:22:15,630 --> 00:22:18,470
+2013 و 10 هيصير هذا كل سنة هيصير اه
+
+286
+00:22:24,360 --> 00:22:33,600
+هذا السهم 8% دفعنا للـ industry السهم هذا هذول
+
+287
+00:22:33,600 --> 00:22:36,080
+اللي بندفعه هذول الفلوس هندفعه من خلال الـ dealer
+
+288
+00:22:36,080 --> 00:22:39,960
+يعني فيه برنامج وسيط يعني الـ medical هتدفع للـ
+
+289
+00:22:39,960 --> 00:22:43,660
+dealer و الـ dealer يروح يدفع لمين للـ industry
+
+290
+00:22:47,550 --> 00:22:51,750
+طيب هذا .. هذا كل سنة هيصير في سنة الـ 2023 إيش
+
+291
+00:22:51,750 --> 00:22:54,750
+راح يصير؟ في 2033 و 2023 إيش
+
+292
+00:22:54,750 --> 00:23:00,090
+راح يصير؟ اللي هو إيش بيسميه matured to date؟ إيش
+
+293
+00:23:00,090 --> 00:23:07,810
+راح يصير في تاريخ الاستحقاق؟ أه؟ مين اللي هيحصل؟
+
+294
+00:23:07,810 --> 00:23:11,970
+حامل السند، بالضبط حامل السند حامل السند في سنة الـ
+
+295
+00:23:11,970 --> 00:23:15,590
+2023 و 2033 هتروح الشركة تدفعله
+
+296
+00:23:15,590 --> 00:23:20,310
+قيمة السند بالكامل اللي هي كام؟ اللي هو الألف دولار
+
+297
+00:23:20,310 --> 00:23:23,990
+طبعا ألف دولار ضال بالخمسمية اللي هو بيصير خمسمية
+
+298
+00:23:23,990 --> 00:23:30,570
+خمسمية ألف طبعا يعني بالمجموع لو طلعته المجموع هان
+
+299
+00:23:30,570 --> 00:23:35,310
+بالمجموع الـ investor هيحصل عشان أو تان هياخد اللي
+
+300
+00:23:35,310 --> 00:23:41,730
+هو الـ coupon rate و الـ principal إيش الـ principal
+
+301
+00:23:41,730 --> 00:23:46,470
+معناها؟ أيوة بالظبط المصاري الأصلية اللي دفعوا
+
+302
+00:23:46,470 --> 00:23:53,550
+الألف دولار هياخد هاتين تان واحد تان لأ
+
+303
+00:23:53,550 --> 00:23:57,030
+هذا في أنواع سندات مختلفة خلينا نركز على المفهوم
+
+304
+00:23:57,030 --> 00:24:06,710
+واضح واضح الـ chart هذا انو انت
+
+305
+00:24:06,710 --> 00:24:11,430
+تتبعيه هذا طلع كام دفع هو اليوم ألف دولار دفعهم
+
+306
+00:24:11,430 --> 00:24:11,730
+اليوم
+
+307
+00:24:15,840 --> 00:24:22,600
+لأ 8% هذه فائدة بس ربح له بس أما الألف دولار اللي
+
+308
+00:24:22,600 --> 00:24:27,640
+هو المبلغ اللي أصلا دفعه في 2013 هياخده بالـ 2023
+
+309
+00:24:27,640 --> 00:24:32,260
+فاستفاد هو إيش؟ استفاد اللي هو 8% اللي هتيجيله كل
+
+310
+00:24:32,260 --> 00:24:38,380
+.. كل .. كل سنة هذا الـ process تبع السند واضح
+
+311
+00:24:38,380 --> 00:24:43,530
+عندك؟ الجانب هذا البنات الورا أكيد البنات اللي جانب
+
+312
+00:24:43,530 --> 00:24:51,770
+هذا وضع عندكم سند اه هذا
+
+313
+00:24:51,770 --> 00:24:55,810
+كتير في أسئلة متعلقة في الـ .. في هذا الرسم يعني الـ
+
+314
+00:24:55,810 --> 00:25:00,490
+investors إيش بيستفيد الـ
+
+315
+00:25:00,490 --> 00:25:05,550
+principal الفائدة أساسا تمام؟
+
+316
+00:25:10,920 --> 00:25:14,520
+طب هذا بالنسبة للشركات هذه الشركات بتصدر سندات
+
+317
+00:25:14,520 --> 00:25:18,780
+بنفس الطريقة الحكومة بتصدر كمان سندات اللي احنا
+
+318
+00:25:18,780 --> 00:25:22,740
+هنبدأ فيها هذا اسمه corporate bonds هذا الكلام
+
+319
+00:25:22,740 --> 00:25:26,680
+الشرحناه اسمه corporate bonds اللي هو سندات
+
+320
+00:25:26,680 --> 00:25:36,240
+للشركات corporate بنفس
+
+321
+00:25:36,240 --> 00:25:39,540
+الطريقة احنا بنصدر الحكومة بتصدر الـ government
+
+322
+00:25:39,540 --> 00:25:39,960
+bonds
+
+323
+00:25:46,610 --> 00:25:52,130
+و الـ government bond فيه نوعين اذا هذا اللي شرحناه
+
+324
+00:25:52,130 --> 00:25:54,830
+اسمه corporate bonds اللي هو سندات الشركات الشركات
+
+325
+00:25:54,830 --> 00:25:58,710
+لما بدأت مايول مشاريعها تصدر corporate bonds اللي
+
+326
+00:25:58,710 --> 00:26:04,350
+هو سندات الشركات وبنفس الطريقة الحكومة بتصدر اللي
+
+327
+00:26:04,350 --> 00:26:11,070
+هو سندات الحكومة طب لأ السندات الحكومية بتختلف عن
+
+328
+00:26:11,070 --> 00:26:14,710
+الـ treasury bills زي ما أنا حكت البنت انه السندات
+
+329
+00:26:14,710 --> 00:26:21,520
+الحكومية هي طويلة الأجل إيش معلها طويلة الأجل حكينا الـ
+
+330
+00:26:21,520 --> 00:26:25,780
+treasury bills هي تمويل حكومي لكن قصير الأجل الـ
+
+331
+00:26:25,780 --> 00:26:29,800
+treasury notes صح اه الـ treasury notes إذا كان
+
+332
+00:26:29,800 --> 00:26:35,220
+treasury notes و عنده treasury bonds في عنده نوعين
+
+333
+00:26:35,220 --> 00:26:40,180
+treasury notes الـ government bonds بتقسمها نوعين
+
+334
+00:26:40,180 --> 00:26:46,660
+treasury notes و treasury bonds و في أنواع أخرى
+
+335
+00:26:46,660 --> 00:26:52,720
+متعلقة بطريقة غير مباشرة بالـ government bonds بس
+
+336
+00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:55,940
+هدول هما النوعين الرئيسيين اللي هو treasury notes
+
+337
+00:26:55,940 --> 00:27:01,900
+و الـ treasury bonds في عندنا سندات أخرى مرتبطة
+
+338
+00:27:01,900 --> 00:27:07,840
+بطريقة غير مباشرة و هم عندنا مثلا اللي لهم ارتباط
+
+339
+00:27:07,840 --> 00:27:11,580
+غير مباشر اللي هو الـ municipal bonds municipal
+
+340
+00:27:11,580 --> 00:27:16,100
+bonds عارفين إيش معنى municipal bonds اللي هو
+
+341
+00:27:16,100 --> 00:27:21,160
+سندات البلديات يعني مثلا بلدية غزة بدت .. بدت تشتري
+
+342
+00:27:21,160 --> 00:27:24,700
+جرفات و تشتري أدوات و كذا طويلة الآجال فبتصدر شغل
+
+343
+00:27:24,700 --> 00:27:29,840
+اسمه municipal bonds اللي هو سندات بلدية طبعا؟ طيب
+
+344
+00:27:29,840 --> 00:27:39,480
+في كمان عندنا شغل اسمه revenue bonds revenue سندات
+
+345
+00:27:39,480 --> 00:27:44,040
+بتولد عائد طبعا هذه برضه اللي هي علاقة بطريقة غير
+
+346
+00:27:44,040 --> 00:27:47,480
+مباشرة بالحكومة يعني الحكومة مثلا بتعمل مشروع
+
+347
+00:27:48,140 --> 00:27:52,300
+والمشروع هذا بيعطي عوائد حكومة مش شركة طب تصدر
+
+348
+00:27:52,300 --> 00:27:57,000
+شغلة اسمها revenue bond طب في كمان شغلة تالتة
+
+349
+00:27:57,000 --> 00:28:07,900
+اسمها industrial bonds اه سندات صناعية industrial
+
+350
+00:28:07,900 --> 00:28:13,880
+bonds سندات صناعية طبعا هذا كله موجود عندكم
+
+351
+00:28:13,880 --> 00:28:16,440
+بالكتاب بصفحة
+
+352
+00:28:26,080 --> 00:28:29,800
+بصفحة زي ما حكت هان صفحة 34 و 35 و
+
+353
+00:28:29,800 --> 00:28:37,180
+30 و صفحة 36 okay
+
+354
+00:28:37,180 --> 00:28:41,680
+طيب
+
+355
+00:28:41,680 --> 00:28:44,800
+هلا بالنسبة للـ industrial bonds خليني بس نعطيكم
+
+356
+00:28:44,800 --> 00:28:49,840
+municipal هذا
+
+357
+00:28:51,640 --> 00:28:55,860
+هذا الـ treasury notes اللي هو بيسموها سندات خزينة
+
+358
+00:28:55,860 --> 00:29:03,060
+هنحجي نحكي في التفصيل فيها سندات خزينة treasury
+
+359
+00:29:03,060 --> 00:29:09,300
+notes notes مش معناها notes الملاحظات لأ يعني
+
+360
+00:29:09,300 --> 00:29:16,760
+سندات خزينة و
+
+361
+00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:20,640
+هنحجي نيجي نفرق بين الـ treasury notes و الـ treasury bonds
+
+362
+00:29:20,640 --> 00:29:23,100
+يعني الفرق بين الـ treasury notes و الـ treasury
+
+363
+00:29:23,100 --> 00:29:28,200
+bonds الفرق بسيط كثير بيناتهم هنيجي نحكي فيه زي ما
+
+364
+00:29:28,200 --> 00:29:31,900
+حكت هان اللي هو الفترة الزمنية خليني نرجع هان الـ
+
+365
+00:29:31,900 --> 00:29:35,800
+corporate bonds حكيناها اللي هو الشركات تصدرها يعني
+
+366
+00:29:35,800 --> 00:29:40,040
+الـ government bonds أو سندات الحكومة كتير فيها
+
+367
+00:29:40,040 --> 00:29:43,500
+شغلات يعني كتير فيها أنواع يعني ممكن نحكي عن
+
+368
+00:29:43,500 --> 00:29:47,000
+30 40 50 نوع من أنواع سندات الحكومة بس
+
+369
+00:29:47,000 --> 00:29:49,300
+بدنا نحكي الشائع اللي هو treasury notes و treasury
+
+370
+00:29:49,300 --> 00:29:54,400
+bonds الـ treasury notes اللي هي سندات تعتبر سندات
+
+371
+00:29:54,400 --> 00:29:57,960
+خزينة لكن طويلة الأجل و treasury bonds سندات خزينة
+
+372
+00:29:57,960 --> 00:30:03,760
+أقل مش قصيرة الأجل يعني أقل من الـ treasury bonds أقل
+
+373
+00:30:03,760 --> 00:30:09,300
+من الـ treasury notes يعني متوسطة okay هلأ في أنواع
+
+374
+00:30:09,300 --> 00:30:13,320
+أخرى اللي حكينا فيها انه هي ارتباطها ارتباط غير
+
+375
+00:30:13,320 --> 00:30:18,540
+مباشر مع الحكومة يعني بتم إصدارها من مؤسسات شبه
+
+376
+00:30:18,540 --> 00:30:24,200
+حكومية يعني زي مثلا البلديات لأ الـ municipal bonds
+
+377
+00:30:24,200 --> 00:30:27,860
+اللي هو البلدية لما بدها تيجي تعمل توسع بدها تشتري 
+
+378
+00:30:27,860 --> 00:30:33,780
+مثلا جرفات بتعمل مشاريع فبتستخدم أنواع من السندات
+
+379
+00:30:33,780 --> 00:30:37,740
+في عندنا الـ revenue bonds اللي هو سندات الإيرادات
+
+380
+00:30:37,740 --> 00:30:43,160
+يعني بدهم يعملوا مشاريع استثمارية okay يعني مثلا
+
+381
+00:30:43,160 --> 00:30:46,740
+بدهم يعملوا شاطئ البحر ولما بيعملوا شاطئ البحر
+
+382
+00:30:46,740 --> 00:30:50,440
+هذا هيصير في عقود عليها فبيروحوا بصدر البلدية
+
+383
+00:30:50,440 --> 00:30:54,970
+بتصدر شغل اسمه revenue bonds طيب بالـ industrial
+
+384
+00:30:54,970 --> 00:31:00,110
+bonds مثلا بيعملوا مناطق صناعية فبتروح الحكومة أو
+
+385
+00:31:00,110 --> 00:31:03,470
+البلدية بتروح تصدر اللي هو الـ industrial bonds
+
+386
+00:31:03,470 --> 00:31:08,310
+يعني بحيث مولق ويعملوا تشجيع للصناعة البنية
+
+387
+00:31:08,310 --> 00:31:11,590
+التحتية في الصناعة فهذه الأنواع اللي ممكن نحكي
+
+388
+00:31:11,590 --> 00:31:13,730
+فيها بالـ government bonds
+
+389
+00:31:17,410 --> 00:31:20,470
+Okay مش هنحكي كثير بالـ inflation protected
+
+390
+00:31:20,470 --> 00:31:23,210
+treasury bonds ومش هنحكي بالـ federal agency debts
+
+391
+00:31:23,210 --> 00:31:27,470
+يعني احنا هنركز في treasury notes and bonds okay
+
+392
+00:31:27,470 --> 00:31:33,130
+تركيزنا هيكون على treasury notes and bonds وهنحكي
+
+393
+00:31:33,130 --> 00:31:36,810
+شوية بالـ international bonds الـ municipal bonds
+
+394
+00:31:36,810 --> 00:31:42,110
+حكيناها كويس هل هو السندات اللي تصدرها البلدية
+
+395
+00:31:43,230 --> 00:31:46,250
+طبعا؟ يعني زي مثلا بلدية شيكاجو مثلا، بلدية
+
+396
+00:31:46,250 --> 00:31:49,730
+نيويورك، بلدية لندن مثلا، زي بلدية غزة مثلا ممكن
+
+397
+00:31:49,730 --> 00:31:55,870
+تصدر، فهذه البلديات بدل ما هي تروح ت... يعني مثلا
+
+398
+00:31:55,870 --> 00:32:03,110
+بتحصل على إعانات ومساعدات فتروح تصدر سندات okay
+
+399
+00:32:03,110 --> 00:32:08,770
+طيب هلأ نيجي نحكي عن treasury notes and bonds هلو
+
+400
+00:32:08,770 --> 00:32:13,880
+نرجع لـ treasury notes و treasury bonds تطلعوا على
+
+401
+00:32:13,880 --> 00:32:17,620
+الـ treasury notes الـ treasury notes up to ten
+
+402
+00:32:17,620 --> 00:32:24,180
+years أكثر من عشرة سنوات الـ treasury bonds هي
+
+403
+00:32:24,180 --> 00:32:28,780
+matured from ten to thirty بس نصلح لك هنا الـ
+
+404
+00:32:28,780 --> 00:32:32,860
+treasury bonds بتكون
+
+405
+00:32:32,860 --> 00:32:37,450
+فترة زمنية أطول من الـ treasury notes آه يعني الفترة
+
+406
+00:32:37,450 --> 00:32:40,270
+الزمنية تلعب الـ treasury notes هي عشر سنوات ten
+
+407
+00:32:40,270 --> 00:32:43,730
+years بينما الـ treasury bonds هي بتمتد من عشر على
+
+408
+00:32:43,730 --> 00:32:48,730
+ثلاثين سنة يعني الـ notes اللي... إيه بالظبط الـ
+
+409
+00:32:48,730 --> 00:32:53,010
+notes treasury notes بس
+
+410
+00:32:53,010 --> 00:32:55,790
+هذا لا يعني أن الـ bonds لها تم إصدارها بعشر سنوات
+
+411
+00:32:55,790 --> 00:32:59,750
+يعني هنا الـ confusing بيصير أن الـ treasury notes
+
+412
+00:32:59,750 --> 00:33:02,430
+ممكن تكون عشر سنوات والـ treasury bonds ممكن تكون
+
+413
+00:33:02,430 --> 00:33:05,820
+عشر سنوات لكن في إمكانية احنا الـ treasury bonds
+
+414
+00:33:05,820 --> 00:33:09,840
+نصدرها أكثر من عشر سنوات لعشرين وثلاثين سنة زي
+
+415
+00:33:09,840 --> 00:33:15,320
+مثلا بدي أصدر... بدي أصدر سندات لإنشاء مناطق
+
+416
+00:33:15,320 --> 00:33:21,360
+صناعية بالزمن مثلا عشرين وثلاثين سنة okay؟ بدي
+
+417
+00:33:21,360 --> 00:33:25,460
+أطور مثلا مناطق سياحية مثلا في... في قطاع غزة أو
+
+418
+00:33:25,460 --> 00:33:28,420
+في... في أي مكان في العالم فبيحتاج أنه أكثر من عشر
+
+419
+00:33:28,420 --> 00:33:33,240
+سنوات Okay هذا الفرق اللي ممكن نحصل عليه بالـ
+
+420
+00:33:33,240 --> 00:33:36,740
+treasury notes و treasury bonds فرق ثاني هنحكي فيه
+
+421
+00:33:36,740 --> 00:33:42,260
+كمان اللي هو الـ taxable والـ non taxable أنه فيه
+
+422
+00:33:42,260 --> 00:33:45,580
+عندنا سندات عشان أشجع أنا المواطنين يشتريوا سندات
+
+423
+00:33:45,580 --> 00:33:51,000
+فممكن أنا أعفيها من الضريبة عشان أشجع المواطن
+
+424
+00:33:51,000 --> 00:33:53,800
+يشتري أو الشركات تشتري السندات فممكن أعفيها من
+
+425
+00:33:53,800 --> 00:33:59,460
+الضريبة طبعا هنحكي عن هذه الأنواع من السندات اللي
+
+426
+00:33:59,460 --> 00:34:03,140
+ممكن احنا نعفيها من الضريبة إذا عندنا فارقين
+
+427
+00:34:03,140 --> 00:34:07,660
+الفرق الأساسي أنه الفترة الزمنية والفرق الثاني
+
+428
+00:34:07,660 --> 00:34:10,640
+إذا كان taxable أو non-taxable taxable يعني عليه
+
+429
+00:34:10,640 --> 00:34:14,760
+ضريبة non-taxable ما عليهوش ضريبة أو مش معفي من
+
+430
+00:34:14,760 --> 00:34:18,940
+الضريبة عادة زي ما احنا شرحنا الـ par value بتكون
+
+431
+00:34:18,940 --> 00:34:23,330
+ألف دولار بشكل عام السندات كلها سواء كانت corporate
+
+432
+00:34:23,330 --> 00:34:27,930
+bonds ولا كانت government bonds بتصدر في ألف دولار
+
+433
+00:34:27,930 --> 00:34:30,870
+as a par value طب خلينا نذكركم الـ treasury bills
+
+434
+00:34:30,870 --> 00:34:34,370
+إيش الـ par value تبعتها عشرة آلاف فإذا احنا ما
+
+435
+00:34:34,370 --> 00:34:37,930
+حكينالكم مش مثلا الـ treasury bill هتعرفوا by
+
+436
+00:34:37,930 --> 00:34:43,180
+default أن الـ treasury notes عفوا الـ treasury bills
+
+437
+00:34:43,180 --> 00:34:47,040
+عشرة آلاف وفي الـ money market أقل من سنة لكن الـ
+
+438
+00:34:47,040 --> 00:34:49,340
+treasury notes وال... والـ government bonds والـ
+
+439
+00:34:49,340 --> 00:34:52,440
+corporate bonds هي one thousand دولار، ألف دولار
+
+440
+00:34:52,440 --> 00:34:56,060
+هدول
+
+441
+00:34:56,060 --> 00:34:59,620
+لأ هدول مش money markets لأ الـ money market
+
+442
+00:34:59,620 --> 00:35:03,490
+خلصناهم Okay الـ money markets اللي هو الـ commercial
+
+443
+00:35:03,490 --> 00:35:07,170
+paper والـ bankers acceptance وال... والـ
+
+444
+00:35:07,170 --> 00:35:13,530
+treasury bills وال... والـ CDs okay حكينا لكم كمان
+
+445
+00:35:13,530 --> 00:35:16,610
+بال... الـ interest ممكن paid semiannually or
+
+446
+00:35:16,610 --> 00:35:21,190
+annually ممكن ندفعها annually or semiannual يعني
+
+447
+00:35:21,190 --> 00:35:26,960
+سنويا أو نصف سنوي نجي على الـ quota، إيش الـ quota؟
+
+448
+00:35:26,960 --> 00:35:30,840
+طريقة التسعير، حكينالكم بـ treasury notes، الـ
+
+449
+00:35:30,840 --> 00:35:35,240
+treasury bills، حكينا التسعير كيف بتم؟ كيف طريقة
+
+450
+00:35:35,240 --> 00:35:39,460
+التسعير بالتم؟ بالـ treasury bills، التسعير اللي
+
+451
+00:35:39,460 --> 00:35:44,400
+أعطيتكم إياه في واجب، كيف طريقة التسعير؟ نسبة خاصة
+
+452
+00:35:46,390 --> 00:35:51,430
+percentage طبعا بالطريقة التسعير في الـ corporate
+
+453
+00:35:51,430 --> 00:35:55,650
+bonds وبالـ government bonds بتختلف عن treasury
+
+454
+00:35:55,650 --> 00:36:02,510
+bills بتختلف بس بشغلة واحدة أن الأسعار المعروضة هي
+
+455
+00:36:02,510 --> 00:36:06,430
+as a percentage إيش يعني as a percentage لو احنا
+
+456
+00:36:06,430 --> 00:36:10,110
+فاكرين أخذنا الـ bid والـ ask okay
+
+457
+00:36:12,500 --> 00:36:16,400
+يعني دقيقة بس دقيقة بس الـ bid والـ ask الـ bid والـ
+
+458
+00:36:16,400 --> 00:36:20,120
+ask في حالة الـ corporate bonds والـ government
+
+459
+00:36:20,120 --> 00:36:23,860
+bonds بتعرض كنسبة مئوية من الـ par value مثلا لو
+
+460
+00:36:23,860 --> 00:36:30,400
+قلت 102 إيش يعني 102 يعني 102% من قيمة الـ
+
+461
+00:36:30,400 --> 00:36:35,220
+par value يعني 102% ضد الـ par value الألف
+
+462
+00:36:35,220 --> 00:36:43,450
+اللي هي بتطلع كام ألف وعشرين اضرب 102% ضرب الـ 1000
+
+463
+00:36:43,450 --> 00:36:50,750
+شوف كده تطلع معاكم كام تطلع؟ طبعا فاللي احنا نرجع
+
+464
+00:36:50,750 --> 00:36:57,550
+الـ ask نفس الشغلة الـ ask لو كان 103 103% من ضرب
+
+465
+00:36:57,550 --> 00:37:02,290
+الـ par value 103% ضرب الـ par value بنقف عند هذه
+
+466
+00:37:02,290 --> 00:37:08,070
+النقطة عشان اللقاء اللي جاي لنشوف كيف نسعر اللي هو
+
+467
+00:37:08,070 --> 00:37:11,370
+الـ bonds ونكمل على هذا الموضوع، في حد عنده سؤال؟
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/p_HS3Q1jsnI_raw.json b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/p_HS3Q1jsnI_raw.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..0a9d7db5649711abffa067bd58574a7eca857a18
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/p_HS3Q1jsnI_raw.json
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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himself", "probability": 0.88671875}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 54, "seek": 153935, "start": 1516.07, "end": 1539.35, "text": "والباقي غطى بنفسه يعنى بيكون هنا ال fifty percent مظبوط بيكون ال margin هنا fifty percent لأنه عشر تلاف منه وعشر تلاف من ال broker طيب بدنا ناخد three scenarios بدنا ناخد ايش three scenarios three scenarios يعني three options او three probabilities بدنا نشوف السعر اذا طلع", "tokens": [2407, 6027, 3555, 995, 38436, 32771, 9566, 7578, 44945, 36178, 3224, 37495, 1863, 7578, 4724, 1829, 30544, 34105, 2423, 13442, 3043, 3714, 19913, 3555, 2407, 9566, 4724, 1829, 30544, 2423, 10270, 34105, 13442, 3043, 5296, 33456, 3224, 6225, 46309, 6055, 15040, 5172, 9154, 3224, 4032, 3615, 46309, 6055, 15040, 5172, 9154, 2423, 26502, 23032, 1829, 3555, 47525, 8315, 8717, 47283, 3215, 1045, 15077, 47525, 8315, 8717, 47283, 3215, 1975, 1829, 8592, 1045, 15077, 1045, 15077, 37495, 22653, 1045, 3956, 1975, 2407, 1045, 33783, 47525, 8315, 8717, 8592, 38688, 21136, 3615, 2288, 1975, 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يبدأ بـ buy هو يدخل السوق أو يتعامل في السوق بشركات الشراء", "tokens": [5016, 3794, 1863, 14111, 995, 12174, 36150, 14739, 6055, 17082, 18513, 2288, 6055, 5016, 995, 12610, 6055, 4587, 2288, 13546, 1975, 2655, 7435, 9640, 9307, 25124, 2288, 16606, 38392, 39896, 2423, 39184, 2099, 3607, 9122, 15042, 5551, 46309, 5016, 2655, 8978, 38637, 1211, 5718, 104, 3714, 4587, 16758, 1211, 9307, 12174, 36150, 11296, 5551, 46309, 5016, 5296, 4117, 43242, 15042, 7251, 44510, 10721, 9673, 14851, 9778, 40448, 4724, 39184, 3607, 6156, 3224, 8315, 9673, 14851, 9778, 40448, 7251, 44510, 10721, 4724, 39184, 2256, 31439, 7251, 3215, 9778, 1211, 21136, 30543, 34051, 7251, 2655, 3615, 10943, 1211, 8978, 21136, 30543, 4724, 8592, 31747, 9307, 25124, 2288, 16606], "avg_logprob": -0.5768107721738727, "compression_ratio": 1.7794117647058822, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 2263.02, "end": 2263.44, "word": "حسنًا", "probability": 0.628173828125}, {"start": 2263.44, "end": 2264.06, "word": " قبل", 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2310.36, "end": 2311.14, "word": " يدخل", "probability": 0.806060791015625}, {"start": 2311.14, "end": 2312.54, "word": " بائع،", "probability": 0.749267578125}, {"start": 2312.54, "end": 2313.2, "word": " بيكونش", "probability": 0.7803955078125}, {"start": 2313.2, "end": 2313.4, "word": " معاه", "probability": 0.59967041015625}, {"start": 2313.4, "end": 2313.76, "word": " فلوس،", "probability": 0.864990234375}, {"start": 2313.76, "end": 2313.88, "word": " هو", "probability": 0.91552734375}, {"start": 2313.88, "end": 2314.42, "word": " بيبيع،", "probability": 0.82744140625}, {"start": 2314.42, "end": 2314.7, "word": " بيبدأ", "probability": 0.85205078125}, {"start": 2314.7, "end": 2314.8, "word": " في", "probability": 0.869140625}, {"start": 2314.8, "end": 2315.04, "word": " بيع", "probability": 0.8564453125}, {"start": 2315.04, "end": 2315.8, "word": " is", "probability": 0.1956787109375}, {"start": 2315.8, "end": 2315.98, "word": " not", "probability": 0.93359375}, {"start": 2315.98, "end": 2316.32, "word": " ..", "probability": 0.7099609375}, {"start": 2316.32, "end": 2316.78, "word": " he", "probability": 0.849609375}, {"start": 2316.78, "end": 2316.94, "word": " is", "probability": 0.58544921875}, {"start": 2316.94, "end": 2317.38, "word": " starting", "probability": 0.95263671875}, {"start": 2317.38, "end": 2317.72, "word": " by", "probability": 0.97216796875}, {"start": 2317.72, "end": 2318.06, "word": " selling", "probability": 0.845703125}, {"start": 2318.06, "end": 2318.68, "word": " he", "probability": 0.56103515625}, {"start": 2318.68, "end": 2318.94, "word": " borrow", "probability": 0.428466796875}, {"start": 2318.94, "end": 2319.12, "word": " the", "probability": 0.90380859375}, {"start": 2319.12, "end": 2319.44, "word": " stock", "probability": 0.87060546875}, {"start": 2319.44, "end": 2319.74, "word": " from", "probability": 0.91845703125}, {"start": 2319.74, "end": 2320.12, "word": " the", "probability": 0.93505859375}, {"start": 2320.12, "end": 2322.32, "word": " broker", "probability": 0.326904296875}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 83, "seek": 233161, "start": 2323.03, "end": 2331.61, "text": "what we call this process ايش بتسميها هذا ال process short sell short sell so our next meeting we will talk about the short sell", "tokens": [5479, 321, 818, 341, 1399, 1975, 1829, 8592, 39894, 38251, 1829, 11296, 23758, 2423, 1399, 2099, 3607, 2099, 3607, 370, 527, 958, 3440, 321, 486, 751, 466, 264, 2099, 3607], "avg_logprob": -0.32686492127756916, "compression_ratio": 1.2543859649122806, "no_speech_prob": 0.0, "words": [{"start": 2323.03, "end": 2323.39, "word": "what", "probability": 0.356689453125}, {"start": 2323.39, "end": 2323.55, "word": " we", "probability": 0.90673828125}, {"start": 2323.55, "end": 2323.81, "word": " call", "probability": 0.9140625}, {"start": 2323.81, "end": 2323.97, "word": " this", "probability": 0.9462890625}, {"start": 2323.97, "end": 2324.47, "word": " process", "probability": 0.9638671875}, {"start": 2324.47, "end": 2324.75, "word": " ايش", "probability": 0.6512858072916666}, {"start": 2324.75, "end": 2325.15, "word": " بتسميها", "probability": 0.7694091796875}, {"start": 2325.15, "end": 2325.29, "word": " هذا", "probability": 0.448486328125}, {"start": 2325.29, "end": 2325.35, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.87109375}, {"start": 2325.35, "end": 2325.69, "word": " process", "probability": 0.94970703125}, {"start": 2325.69, "end": 2326.95, "word": " short", "probability": 0.64794921875}, {"start": 2326.95, "end": 2327.25, "word": " sell", "probability": 0.309814453125}, {"start": 2327.25, "end": 2329.07, "word": " short", "probability": 0.779296875}, {"start": 2329.07, "end": 2329.37, "word": " sell", "probability": 0.8740234375}, {"start": 2329.37, "end": 2329.61, "word": " so", "probability": 0.479736328125}, {"start": 2329.61, "end": 2329.71, "word": " our", "probability": 0.470947265625}, {"start": 2329.71, "end": 2329.87, "word": " next", "probability": 0.9541015625}, {"start": 2329.87, "end": 2330.27, "word": " meeting", "probability": 0.9384765625}, {"start": 2330.27, "end": 2330.49, "word": " we", "probability": 0.9189453125}, {"start": 2330.49, "end": 2330.59, "word": " will", "probability": 0.88232421875}, {"start": 2330.59, "end": 2330.79, "word": " talk", "probability": 0.9228515625}, {"start": 2330.79, "end": 2331.03, "word": " about", "probability": 0.94091796875}, {"start": 2331.03, "end": 2331.17, "word": " the", "probability": 0.6005859375}, {"start": 2331.17, "end": 2331.39, "word": " short", "probability": 0.9794921875}, {"start": 2331.39, "end": 2331.61, "word": " sell", "probability": 0.81591796875}], "temperature": 1.0}], "language": "ar", "language_probability": 1.0, "duration": 2332.3515, "duration_after_vad": 2114.373749999995}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/sKyveBLJSek.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/sKyveBLJSek.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..0cf26cf668698302658023caabb79495e6e4f7b8
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/sKyveBLJSek.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,2075 @@
+1
+00:00:26,900 --> 00:00:31,040
+بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم المرة الفاتتة حكينا بال
+
+2
+00:00:31,040 --> 00:00:34,920
+price-weighted average الـ price-weighted average
+
+3
+00:00:34,920 --> 00:00:39,740
+هي طريقة باستخدام التقييم المؤشر الـ financial
+
+4
+00:00:39,740 --> 00:00:44,470
+index حكينا فيه طريقتين في الـ price-weighted وفي
+
+5
+00:00:44,470 --> 00:00:48,050
+اللي هو الـ value market-weighted المرة الأخرى حكينا
+
+6
+00:00:48,050 --> 00:00:53,370
+عن الـ price-weighted طريقة التسعير بس فقط تعتمد
+
+7
+00:00:53,370 --> 00:00:57,030
+على الـ pricing, however, the value-weighted is
+
+8
+00:00:57,030 --> 00:01:04,030
+depend on the value of the shares يعني بتفرق عن الـ
+
+9
+00:01:04,030 --> 00:01:07,710
+price-weighted إنه احنا بنضيف الـ number of shares
+
+10
+00:01:07,710 --> 00:01:11,960
+على الـ index الـ index calculations يعني المرة
+
+11
+00:01:11,960 --> 00:01:14,600
+الفاة لما كنا نحكي ع الـ price-weighted كنا بس
+
+12
+00:01:14,600 --> 00:01:19,180
+نجمع الـ price يعني مثلا إذا كان عندي a,b,c you
+
+13
+00:01:19,180 --> 00:01:32,820
+just sum the prices of a, b and c, okay, and Dow
+
+14
+00:01:32,820 --> 00:01:36,950
+Jones developed this and take the average of a, ب وC
+
+15
+00:01:36,950 --> 00:01:43,170
+هذا هو السعر الموضوع اليوم سأتحدث عن مؤسسة قيمة
+
+16
+00:01:49,500 --> 00:01:53,700
+So what is the difference between value market and
+
+17
+00:01:53,700 --> 00:01:58,900
+the price-weighted؟ يعني شو الفرق بين بنائس المؤشر
+
+18
+00:01:58,900 --> 00:02:04,700
+بطريق الـ value يعني بقيمة المنشئة أو قيمة السوقية
+
+19
+00:02:04,700 --> 00:02:08,760
+المنشئة و الفرق بين التسعير؟ بالـ value market we
+
+20
+00:02:08,760 --> 00:02:11,420
+consider the number of shares
+
+21
+00:02:14,940 --> 00:02:18,420
+that outstanding by the company يعني بناخد بعين
+
+22
+00:02:18,420 --> 00:02:21,940
+الاعتبار عدد الأسهم اللى تم إصدارها من قبل الشركة
+
+23
+00:02:21,940 --> 00:02:28,980
+في عندكم بال .. على الصفحه انا نزلت how to
+
+24
+00:02:28,980 --> 00:02:33,420
+calculate the market value انا نزلتلكم كيف نحسب الـ
+
+25
+00:02:33,420 --> 00:02:38,840
+market value, okay, الفرق
+
+26
+00:02:38,840 --> 00:02:41,060
+زى ما حكينا ان احنا الـ price just we consider the
+
+27
+00:02:41,060 --> 00:02:48,200
+price لكن بال .. اه؟ لأ موجود في الكتاب انت معاك
+
+28
+00:02:48,200 --> 00:02:52,040
+الكتاب ولا الـ slides؟ okay في الكتاب موجود okay
+
+29
+00:02:52,040 --> 00:02:56,680
+بال .. بالـ price-weighted we just consider the
+
+30
+00:02:56,680 --> 00:03:01,000
+price بالـ value markets we consider the number of
+
+31
+00:03:01,000 --> 00:03:04,220
+shares, it means the price times by the number of
+
+32
+00:03:04,220 --> 00:03:08,740
+shares يعني احنا بنضرب الـ price بعدد القسم number
+
+33
+00:03:08,740 --> 00:03:13,110
+of shares يعني عدد القسم okay نرجع لنفس المثالفي
+
+34
+00:03:13,110 --> 00:03:18,030
+عندنا شركتين زي ما انتوا شايفيهم شركة ABC و شركة
+
+35
+00:03:18,030 --> 00:03:26,710
+XYZ الكل شايف اه الـ initial price يعني السعر بداية
+
+36
+00:03:26,710 --> 00:03:37,230
+بارح او بالامس كان 25$ لـ ABC و 50$ لـ XYZ باليوم
+
+37
+00:03:37,230 --> 00:03:42,590
+التاني ABC صارت 30$ و XYZ 45$
+
+38
+00:03:46,670 --> 00:03:52,390
+number of shares number of shares يعني عدد القسم
+
+39
+00:03:52,390 --> 00:03:57,530
+عدد القسم لـ ABC عشرين و عدد القسم لـ XYZ اتنين
+
+40
+00:03:59,630 --> 00:04:02,170
+الخمسمية اللى جبناها الـ initial value يعني قيمة
+
+41
+00:04:02,170 --> 00:04:06,990
+اول يوم او امبارح بتساوي اللى هو الـ 25 ضرب number
+
+42
+00:04:06,990 --> 00:04:10,030
+of shares زى ما حكى ان الـ number of shares الـ
+
+43
+00:04:10,030 --> 00:04:14,510
+price ضرب number of shares يعني نضرب هذا النتيجة
+
+44
+00:04:14,510 --> 00:04:25,100
+بتساوي 25 ضرب 20 و هذه النتيجة 50 ضرب 2 بتساوي اللي
+
+45
+00:04:25,100 --> 00:04:30,000
+هو الـ one hundred الـ 100 هذا الـ price وهذا الـ
+
+46
+00:04:30,000 --> 00:04:33,960
+number of shares ضربناهم طلع عندنا الجواب أخدنا
+
+47
+00:04:33,960 --> 00:04:40,080
+المجموع طلع عندنا خمسمية زي ستمية كم؟ ستمية هذا
+
+48
+00:04:40,080 --> 00:04:43,680
+لليوم اللي ايش؟ لامبارح لنافطر لان امبارح كان zero
+
+49
+00:04:43,680 --> 00:04:51,510
+امبارح يعني خلص zero اليوم one يعني اليوم one,
+
+50
+00:04:51,810 --> 00:04:56,910
+tomorrow اتنين, تلاتة اربعة and so on نفس الشيء
+
+51
+00:04:56,910 --> 00:05:03,070
+ميكرر الـ 600 ايش بتساوي السعر تلاتين ضربضارب
+
+52
+00:05:03,070 --> 00:05:05,930
+العشرين والخمسة واربعين ضارب التانية وخمسة واربعين
+
+53
+00:05:05,930 --> 00:05:10,290
+times two ninety ثلاثة times twenty six hundred we
+
+54
+00:05:10,290 --> 00:05:13,190
+end up with six hundred ninety أخدنا ست مائة و
+
+55
+00:05:13,190 --> 00:05:15,790
+تسعين و أخدنا ست مائة و تسعين يعني أنا باليوم من
+
+56
+00:05:15,790 --> 00:05:20,390
+بارح zero و هذا باليوم الأول today شوفنا كم يكون
+
+57
+00:05:20,390 --> 00:05:27,170
+فيه زيادة تسعين اليوم six ninety yesterday six
+
+58
+00:05:27,170 --> 00:05:30,310
+hundred so it means the index increased by ninety
+
+59
+00:05:30,310 --> 00:05:36,550
+okay طبعا هذا هو بناء الـ index اول خطوة انه احنا
+
+60
+00:05:36,550 --> 00:05:40,550
+خلصنا ال .. طب ايش المعادلة لبناء الـ index بعد ما
+
+61
+00:05:40,550 --> 00:05:43,410
+احنا ضربنا الـ price ضرب الـ times number of shares
+
+62
+00:05:43,410 --> 00:05:48,450
+نشوف المعادلة المعادلة في اي مؤشر لو انا بدأ احسب
+
+63
+00:05:48,450 --> 00:05:54,170
+الـ index to any index لو انا بدأ احسب معادلة اي
+
+64
+00:05:54,170 --> 00:05:59,330
+مؤشر we have to decide at what point the index
+
+65
+00:05:59,330 --> 00:06:03,460
+should start and أي نقطة لازم المؤشر يبدأ في ناس
+
+66
+00:06:03,460 --> 00:06:07,080
+بيبدو المؤشر تبعهم مية دولار أو مية نقطة في ناس
+
+67
+00:06:07,080 --> 00:06:09,640
+بيبدوها بالألف في ناس بيبدوها بالعشرة ألاف في ناس
+
+68
+00:06:09,640 --> 00:06:14,140
+بيبدوها بالمليون okay so it depends on the
+
+69
+00:06:14,140 --> 00:06:17,220
+financial market committee يعني بتعتمد على قرار
+
+70
+00:06:17,220 --> 00:06:21,960
+قرار لجنة سوق الأوراق المالية انهم بيبدو المؤشر
+
+71
+00:06:21,960 --> 00:06:25,600
+بمية نقطة يعني مثلا احنا عندنا درجات الطلاب من مية
+
+72
+00:06:25,600 --> 00:06:29,620
+في ناس تانية مافيش عندهم مية في منهم a,b,c,d في ناس
+
+73
+00:06:29,620 --> 00:06:32,140
+لأ مش من مية، في منهم من عشرة، في ناس من .. من
+
+74
+00:06:32,140 --> 00:06:35,400
+ألف، في ناس من عشرين، so it depends on the
+
+75
+00:06:35,400 --> 00:06:37,960
+regulations of the financial markets يعني مثلا
+
+76
+00:06:37,960 --> 00:06:40,680
+عندنا بال .. بالـ New York Stock Exchange عندهم بالـ
+
+77
+00:06:40,680 --> 00:06:45,300
+.. من مثلا من مائة ألف، بال .. عندنا بال .. بالألف
+
+78
+00:06:45,300 --> 00:06:48,480
+مثلا كانوا عشر تلاف عندنا سوق فلسطين أوراق المالية
+
+79
+00:06:48,480 --> 00:06:54,240
+اللي هو المؤشر القدس، مؤشر الـ .. London Stock
+
+80
+00:06:54,240 --> 00:06:56,900
+Exchange اللي هو FTSE 100 بدأت بمائة ألف، so it
+
+81
+00:06:56,900 --> 00:07:01,190
+depends which you decide for instance we decide by
+
+82
+00:07:01,190 --> 00:07:05,970
+one hundred احنا قررنا ان احنا نبدأ المؤشر بكم؟
+
+83
+00:07:05,970 --> 00:07:13,630
+one hundred ضرب times B1 divided by B0 what is the
+
+84
+00:07:13,630 --> 00:07:19,370
+B1? B1 is the value today divided by the value
+
+85
+00:07:19,370 --> 00:07:23,710
+yesterday, okay, so the value today is six hundred
+
+86
+00:07:23,710 --> 00:07:29,320
+ninety the value of yesterday six hundred, okay, So
+
+87
+00:07:29,320 --> 00:07:33,640
+the result is 115
+
+88
+00:07:33,640 --> 00:07:41,640
+فالنتيجة بتطلع 115 بتطلع 115 خلنا
+
+89
+00:07:41,640 --> 00:07:47,260
+نكمل هلا طب اليوم zero اللي هو مبارح كام المفروض
+
+90
+00:07:47,260 --> 00:07:52,600
+يكون المؤشر بدأ بكم؟ يلا أشوفكم مبارح المؤشر
+
+91
+00:07:52,600 --> 00:07:56,180
+المفروض يبدأ بكم؟ مؤشر كم لازم يبدأ؟ احنا قلنا انه
+
+92
+00:07:56,180 --> 00:07:59,700
+قررت اللجنة تبدأ بـ 100 صح؟ اذا هاي 100، 100 من وين
+
+93
+00:07:59,700 --> 00:08:05,080
+اجت؟ لو احنا مبارح قلنا index is equal one hundred
+
+94
+00:08:05,080 --> 00:08:08,660
+times B not divided by B not لأنه بدأنا مبارح بس
+
+95
+00:08:08,660 --> 00:08:13,680
+حتى ساب المؤشر B not على B not one hundred times B
+
+96
+00:08:13,680 --> 00:08:17,320
+not six hundred divided by six hundred so it means
+
+97
+00:08:18,400 --> 00:08:22,660
+one hundred هاي الـ one hundred okay this is to the
+
+98
+00:08:22,660 --> 00:08:29,640
+A one hundred fifteen إذا كام زاد المؤشر خمس عشر
+
+99
+00:08:29,640 --> 00:08:32,840
+نقطة خمس عشر نقطة تطلعوا على المؤشر هان هذا
+
+100
+00:08:32,840 --> 00:08:38,820
+بتشوفوه بالجزيرة بيكون أحمر نازل أخضر طالع فكم
+
+101
+00:08:38,820 --> 00:08:43,180
+ارتفع الأخضر خمس عشر هلأ لو إحنا بدينا نغير في
+
+102
+00:08:43,180 --> 00:08:46,660
+الأسعار يعني نفترض إنه إحنا زي ما إنتوا شايفين
+
+103
+00:08:46,660 --> 00:08:50,670
+نروح نغير في الأسعار نغير في أسعار مثلا الـ final
+
+104
+00:08:50,670 --> 00:08:56,810
+value بدل ما هي السعر تلاتين صار أربعين شوفوا
+
+105
+00:08:56,810 --> 00:09:02,810
+مباشرة إيش راح يصير صار عندي كام المؤشر صار أكم
+
+106
+00:09:02,810 --> 00:09:09,690
+نقطة زاد طلعوا ع زيادة زيادة و انخفاض كام 48 طب لو
+
+107
+00:09:09,690 --> 00:09:15,710
+فكرنا أنه نخفض الـ نخفض السعر نفترض أنه خمستاشر
+
+108
+00:09:15,710 --> 00:09:17,170
+فشو صار في المؤشر
+
+109
+00:09:20,960 --> 00:09:24,080
+انخفض في كام؟ خمس و تلاتين، خمس و تلاتين، خمس و
+
+110
+00:09:24,080 --> 00:09:24,300
+تلاتين، خمس و تلاتين، خمس و تلاتين، خمس و
+
+111
+00:09:24,300 --> 00:09:25,680
+تلاتين، خمس و تلاتين، خمس و تلاتين، خمس و
+
+112
+00:09:25,680 --> 00:09:25,940
+تلاتين، خمس و تلاتين، خمس و تلاتين، خمس و
+
+113
+00:09:25,940 --> 00:09:30,540
+تلاتين، خمس و تلاتين، خمس و تلاتين، خمس و
+
+114
+00:09:30,540 --> 00:09:33,920
+تلاتين، خمس و تلاتين، خمس و تلاتين، خمس و
+
+115
+00:09:33,920 --> 00:09:38,020
+تلاتين، خمس و تلاتين، خمس و تلاتين، خمس و
+
+116
+00:09:38,020 --> 00:09:42,450
+تلاتين، Okay هاي فكرة الـ index هاي الفكرة مطبقة في
+
+117
+00:09:42,450 --> 00:09:46,750
+الـ New York Stock Exchange مطبقة بسوق السوق New
+
+118
+00:09:46,750 --> 00:09:50,190
+York سوق الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية okay و
+
+119
+00:09:50,190 --> 00:09:54,290
+particularly S&P 500 هو المطبق هذه الفكرة يعني
+
+120
+00:09:54,290 --> 00:09:59,850
+باختصار أول خطوة بنعملها بنضرب الـ price times the
+
+121
+00:09:59,850 --> 00:10:03,810
+number of shares price times number of shares for
+
+122
+00:10:05,090 --> 00:10:08,950
+the day which the index starts then the next day
+
+123
+00:10:08,950 --> 00:10:15,310
+and we apply this equation what this equation for
+
+124
+00:10:15,310 --> 00:10:18,630
+it calculates the index by points خدوا باقوا بالـ
+
+125
+00:10:18,630 --> 00:10:23,120
+point نحسبها بالنقاط يعني هذه الجواب مش 35 دولار
+
+126
+00:10:23,120 --> 00:10:27,620
+it's 35 points إذا أنتم بتسمعوا مثلا بال CNBC ولا 
+
+127
+00:10:27,620 --> 00:10:32,260
+بالجزيرة they say it's decline 500 points or 300
+
+128
+00:10:32,260 --> 00:10:35,780
+points يعني ما بيحكوا انخفض الدولار أو ارتفع بال
+
+129
+00:10:35,780 --> 00:10:42,300
+points okay بنحسب ال index لليوم الأول for
+
+130
+00:10:42,300 --> 00:10:47,080
+instance و بنحسب ال index لليوم التالي one hundred
+
+131
+00:10:47,080 --> 00:10:53,350
+divided by one one divided by zero يعني نقسم
+
+132
+00:10:53,350 --> 00:10:57,770
+اللي احنا شفناها ال final value divided by the
+
+133
+00:10:57,770 --> 00:11:00,810
+initial value ال final value يعني بتاعة اليوم ال
+
+134
+00:11:00,810 --> 00:11:03,850
+initial value أول ما بدأ المؤشر نقسم هذه على هذه
+
+135
+00:11:03,850 --> 00:11:09,650
+بيطلع لنا الجواب هذا طبعا بنطرحه من المية بيطلع لنا
+
+136
+00:11:09,650 --> 00:11:15,020
+الفرق Okay هذا المثال موجود عندكم بالـ .. بال web
+
+137
+00:11:15,020 --> 00:11:20,880
+page على الصفحة الشخصية so you go back and you can
+
+138
+00:11:20,880 --> 00:11:24,080
+just revise the calculations and see how it will
+
+139
+00:11:24,080 --> 00:11:36,460
+be calculated okay بـ zero بارح okay
+
+140
+00:11:38,780 --> 00:11:44,700
+فاحنا حكينا على الـ .. كمان مرة نرجع أنه احنا we
+
+141
+00:11:44,700 --> 00:11:48,820
+have two methods to calculate the index فهنا
+
+142
+00:11:48,820 --> 00:11:53,340
+طريقتين لحساب ال index ال price methods and the
+
+143
+00:11:53,340 --> 00:11:56,940
+market value methods the main difference between
+
+144
+00:11:56,940 --> 00:12:00,300
+the price and the market value is the market value
+
+145
+00:12:00,300 --> 00:12:03,580
+calculated by times the price by the number of
+
+146
+00:12:03,580 --> 00:12:06,900
+shares and then you carry on calculations the
+
+147
+00:12:06,900 --> 00:12:11,660
+index there are other developments on how they
+
+148
+00:12:11,660 --> 00:12:16,100
+calculate the index but based on this level we
+
+149
+00:12:16,100 --> 00:12:20,900
+just know about the very simple methods in
+
+150
+00:12:20,900 --> 00:12:25,300
+calculating the index يعني في كثير طرق متطورة في
+
+151
+00:12:25,300 --> 00:12:29,000
+ال index في حساب ال index لكن احنا لهذا المستوى
+
+152
+00:12:29,000 --> 00:12:34,240
+فقط بنعطي هذه الطريقتين طريقة ال price وطريقة ال
+
+153
+00:12:34,240 --> 00:12:38,320
+market okay any question
+
+154
+00:12:43,550 --> 00:12:48,970
+المية بداية المؤشر بداية المؤشر بداية المؤشر بداية
+
+155
+00:12:48,970 --> 00:12:50,110
+المؤشر بداية المؤشر بداية المؤشر بداية المؤشر
+
+156
+00:12:50,110 --> 00:12:50,310
+بداية المؤشر بداية المؤشر بداية المؤشر بداية
+
+157
+00:12:50,310 --> 00:12:52,330
+المؤشر بداية المؤشر بداية المؤشر بداية المؤشر
+
+158
+00:12:52,330 --> 00:12:55,750
+بداية المؤشر بداية المؤشر بداية المؤشر بداية
+
+159
+00:12:55,750 --> 00:13:01,890
+المؤشر بداية
+
+160
+00:13:01,890 --> 00:13:05,670
+المؤشر بداية المؤشر بداية المؤشر بداية المؤشر
+
+161
+00:13:05,670 --> 00:13:06,950
+بداية المؤشر بداية المؤشر بداية المؤشر بداية
+
+162
+00:13:06,950 --> 00:13:07,430
+المؤشر بداية المؤشر بداية المؤشر بداية المؤشر
+
+163
+00:13:07,430 --> 00:13:07,510
+بداية المؤشر بداية المؤشر بداية المؤشر بداية
+
+164
+00:13:07,510 --> 00:13:13,460
+بداية المؤشر لو إجا بكرا هذا بيصير initial zero و
+
+165
+00:13:13,460 --> 00:13:17,160
+بكرا بيصير one فبيصير أحسب one minus zero يعني
+
+166
+00:13:17,160 --> 00:13:21,380
+اليوم الجاي ناقص اليوم السابق فمتى كيف؟ هذه طريقة
+
+167
+00:13:21,380 --> 00:13:27,820
+حسبة مؤشر يعني مثلا لو إجينا مثلا نحكي tomorrow
+
+168
+00:13:27,820 --> 00:13:33,380
+tomorrow صار المؤشر tomorrow صار مؤشر eighty-five
+
+169
+00:13:33,380 --> 00:13:40,060
+بتصير هذه sixty-five yesterday Okay C0 كم المؤشر
+
+170
+00:13:40,060 --> 00:13:45,140
+صار ارتفع ارتفع بقيمة عشرين نقطة بس بظل أنه قيمة
+
+171
+00:13:45,140 --> 00:13:47,920
+المؤشر eighty five the value of the index is
+
+172
+00:13:47,920 --> 00:13:51,000
+eighty five لو احنا رجعنا لل origin what it means
+
+173
+00:13:51,000 --> 00:13:55,140
+eighty five from the origin from the first day of
+
+174
+00:13:55,140 --> 00:14:00,200
+the index it was one hundred ال
+
+175
+00:14:00,200 --> 00:14:04,830
+origin أول يوم انعمل فيه المؤشر أول يوم بدأنا فيه
+
+176
+00:14:04,830 --> 00:14:08,490
+المؤشر هذا اسمه ال initial price أول يوم عملنا فيه
+
+177
+00:14:08,490 --> 00:14:12,410
+المؤشر بعد هيك ال كل يوم بيصير يتغير بيصير يتغير
+
+178
+00:14:12,410 --> 00:14:20,210
+فبيصير أنه أعمل كل يوم مع اليوم اللي قبله okay وين
+
+179
+00:14:20,210 --> 00:14:34,420
+المشكلة ال price و ال value عشان نحصل ال index عشان
+
+180
+00:14:34,420 --> 00:14:39,100
+هو يساعدك to understand how the financial market is
+
+181
+00:14:39,100 --> 00:14:42,620
+fluctuated كيف ال financial market تتحرك يعني
+
+182
+00:14:42,620 --> 00:14:47,060
+ما ينفعش أروح أشوف كل الشركات يعني مثلا في ال S&D
+
+183
+00:14:47,060 --> 00:14:50,280
+500 في thousands of companies كيف أتعرف إنه ال
+
+184
+00:14:50,280 --> 00:14:53,160
+total تبع السوق ارتفع أو انخفض بدأ أروح أكل الشركة
+
+185
+00:14:53,160 --> 00:14:56,660
+و أحسبها فلازم يكون في عندي index هذا ال index
+
+186
+00:14:56,660 --> 00:15:00,760
+يعني زي pointer مؤشر بيحكي له إن الشركات انخفضت
+
+187
+00:15:00,760 --> 00:15:04,160
+أدائها أو ارتفع هذا ال benefits تبع ال index
+
+188
+00:15:07,490 --> 00:15:10,290
+يعني كيف أنا بدأ أعرف أداء الطلاب، ما ينفعش أشوف كل
+
+189
+00:15:10,290 --> 00:15:14,030
+طالب إيش الأداء تبعه، لازم كلهم مع بعض، أخد عينة
+
+190
+00:15:14,030 --> 00:15:17,610
+منهم، sample و ال sample أعملها إلها indicator، بـ
+
+191
+00:15:17,610 --> 00:15:20,590
+line عليها، بقرر إنه في انخفاض في أداء الطلاب أو
+
+192
+00:15:20,590 --> 00:15:27,790
+في ارتفاع في أداء الطلاب okay for
+
+193
+00:15:27,790 --> 00:15:32,650
+further details  لمعلومات أكثر I will try to upload
+
+194
+00:15:32,650 --> 00:15:39,130
+some useful articles to understand in details
+
+195
+00:15:39,130 --> 00:15:44,750
+about the index أنتم أكيد بتسمعوا أخبار صح؟ أخبار
+
+196
+00:15:44,750 --> 00:15:48,530
+اقتصادية، ما سمعتوش .. ما سمعتوش بالـ .. بال Dow
+
+197
+00:15:48,530 --> 00:15:53,630
+Jones و بالـ .. بالـ .. خلاص ابدوا يسمعوا، ابدوا
+
+198
+00:15:53,630 --> 00:15:54,650
+يسمعوا أخبار اقتصادية
+
+199
+00:16:02,730 --> 00:16:08,670
+Okay نحكي على الـ .. هاي .. بعض الأمثلة there are
+
+200
+00:16:08,670 --> 00:16:13,010
+some example on market index بعض الأمثلة على
+
+201
+00:16:13,010 --> 00:16:18,590
+الأسواق المؤشرات في عندنا ال S&P 500 هو مؤشر سوق
+
+202
+00:16:18,590 --> 00:16:23,490
+نيويورك broadly based index of 500 firms لما
+
+203
+00:16:23,490 --> 00:16:31,330
+بيحسبوا الـ .. ال S&P 500 بيجيبوا one ABCD till 500
+
+204
+00:16:31,330 --> 00:16:37,030
+companies لعند 500 شركة و بيحسبوا بناء عليهم
+
+205
+00:16:37,030 --> 00:16:41,470
+المؤشر طبعا مين هم ال ABC هدول the best companies
+
+206
+00:16:41,470 --> 00:16:45,150
+based on market capitalization يعني هم أفضل شركات
+
+207
+00:16:45,150 --> 00:16:48,490
+حسب market capitalization و كمان بيضيفوا لشغل
+
+208
+00:16:48,490 --> 00:16:50,870
+market capitalization اللي هو ال liquidity و
+
+209
+00:16:50,870 --> 00:16:55,130
+profitability and other conditions بيضيفه يعني سيولة
+
+210
+00:16:55,130 --> 00:17:01,630
+الشركة والربح تبع الشركة إلى آخرين ال S&P500
+
+211
+00:17:01,630 --> 00:17:04,510
+بتعتمد على الطريقة اللي احنا عملناها بشوية لو
+
+212
+00:17:04,510 --> 00:17:08,070
+market evaluated index بتعتمد على الطريقة اللي
+
+213
+00:17:08,070 --> 00:17:13,570
+احنا حلناها investors can base their portfolios on
+
+214
+00:17:13,570 --> 00:17:19,470
+the index ليش سألتني why the index is important
+
+215
+00:17:19,470 --> 00:17:24,890
+ليش ال index is important the answer is you don't
+
+216
+00:17:24,890 --> 00:17:27,570
+need to look for who is the best because the best
+
+217
+00:17:27,570 --> 00:17:31,150
+is there يعني ما في حاجة اللي احنا ندور مين الأحسن
+
+218
+00:17:31,150 --> 00:17:36,530
+لأن ال index is help us to categorize who is the
+
+219
+00:17:36,530 --> 00:17:40,860
+best يعني ما .. ما فيش داعي أروح أدور على أقرأ
+
+220
+00:17:40,860 --> 00:17:43,120
+تقارير الشركات وأعرف مين هو أحس .. مين أه .. هي
+
+221
+00:17:43,120 --> 00:17:47,000
+أحسن الشركة طالما أن المؤشر نفسه بيساعدني who is
+
+222
+00:17:47,000 --> 00:17:49,660
+the first ten, who is the first one hundred, who
+
+223
+00:17:49,660 --> 00:17:53,460
+is the first five hundred so I try to invest my
+
+224
+00:17:53,460 --> 00:17:58,580
+money on the .. the high quality corporations أه
+
+225
+00:17:58,580 --> 00:18:01,800
+أنا بحاول أستثمر الأموال سبعتين في أفضل الشركات
+
+226
+00:18:01,800 --> 00:18:06,300
+يعني أنا مش بحاجة أروح أفتش على شركات جيدة طالما
+
+227
+00:18:06,300 --> 00:18:10,200
+is already أن الشركات موجودة جيدة يعني أنا مثلا في
+
+228
+00:18:10,200 --> 00:18:13,100
+سوق New York Stock Exchange فيه لدي آلاف الشركات
+
+229
+00:18:13,760 --> 00:18:16,740
+المؤشر هذا بيساعدني بيحكي له أنه مين أفضل الشركات
+
+230
+00:18:16,740 --> 00:18:20,840
+هذا أهمية بناء المؤشر طبعا المؤشر هذا فيه له
+
+231
+00:18:20,840 --> 00:18:24,340
+details مين هم الشركات just go to the S&P 500
+
+232
+00:18:24,340 --> 00:18:28,240
+روحوا على ال S&P 500 و click on the on the index
+
+233
+00:18:28,240 --> 00:18:31,360
+and you will see the number of shares and who are
+
+234
+00:18:31,360 --> 00:18:36,020
+the shares listed in the S&P 500 يعني روحوا على ال
+
+235
+00:18:36,020 --> 00:18:40,930
+S&P 500 اللي أنا أعطيتكم إياه ال website روح على S
+
+236
+00:18:40,930 --> 00:18:45,490
+&P500 و اكتبوا constituent list of the S&P500 يعني
+
+237
+00:18:45,490 --> 00:18:50,270
+قائمة الشركات الموجودة في ال S&P 500 شركة and it
+
+238
+00:18:50,270 --> 00:18:53,030
+rank them according to the market capitalization
+
+239
+00:18:53,030 --> 00:18:55,550
+according to the liquidity and profitability
+
+240
+00:18:55,550 --> 00:18:59,570
+بيرتبهم حسب القوة تبعتهم من ناحية القيمة السوقية و
+
+241
+00:18:59,570 --> 00:19:02,530
+الربحية و السيولة so why you are wasting your time
+
+242
+00:19:02,530 --> 00:19:06,270
+on looking for the companies ليش احنا نروح نضيع
+
+243
+00:19:06,270 --> 00:19:10,820
+وقتنا إن ندور على شركات and the index is Rank them
+
+244
+00:19:10,820 --> 00:19:13,920
+لأن المؤشر هو نفسه يعني بيعطينا مين هو أفضل
+
+245
+00:19:13,920 --> 00:19:17,640
+الشركات So investors can base their portfolio on
+
+246
+00:19:17,640 --> 00:19:22,000
+an index يعني ممكن هم يعملوا Portfolios محافظ بناء
+
+247
+00:19:22,000 --> 00:19:23,080
+على ال index
+
+248
+00:19:25,960 --> 00:19:28,760
+كيف بيعملوا كلان هذا buy and index mutual funds
+
+249
+00:19:28,760 --> 00:19:32,040
+فاكرين لما حكيت عن ال mutual funds بدل ما هم
+
+250
+00:19:32,040 --> 00:19:36,100
+الشركات ال insurance companies و ال mutual funds و
+
+251
+00:19:36,100 --> 00:19:40,880
+الـ investment companies they don't have to spend a
+
+252
+00:19:40,880 --> 00:19:43,940
+lot of time on looking for companies فالـ mutual
+
+253
+00:19:43,940 --> 00:19:47,400
+funds بيروحوا بيريّحوا راسهم they just only invest on
+
+254
+00:19:47,400 --> 00:19:51,920
+the companies listed on the on the index بس بيروحوا
+
+255
+00:19:51,920 --> 00:19:55,040
+بيستثمروا في اللي موجودة بالـ index الـ index had
+
+256
+00:19:55,040 --> 00:19:58,920
+every quarter is revised by the financial market 
+
+257
+00:19:58,920 --> 00:20:03,140
+committee يعني هذا المؤشر يتم مراجعته كل ربع سنة
+
+258
+00:20:03,140 --> 00:20:06,680
+يعني كل ثلاث شهور الـ financial committee يعني لجنة
+
+259
+00:20:06,680 --> 00:20:11,680
+الأوراق المالية بتقوم بمراجعة الشركات اللي في
+
+260
+00:20:11,680 --> 00:20:16,100
+المؤشر some companies leave the market and others
+
+261
+00:20:16,100 --> 00:20:20,270
+leave the index and others get in the index يعني في
+
+262
+00:20:20,270 --> 00:20:23,670
+بعض الشركات بتروح من الـ index و الشركات بتروح من
+
+263
+00:20:23,670 --> 00:20:27,790
+خارج من الـ index so the portfolio managers or the
+
+264
+00:20:27,790 --> 00:20:30,490
+mutual fund managers they rebalance their
+
+265
+00:20:30,490 --> 00:20:32,930
+portfolios according to the changes in the index
+
+266
+00:20:32,930 --> 00:20:37,270
+يعني بتلاقيهم بيعملوا تغيير في محافظتهم حسب
+
+267
+00:20:37,270 --> 00:20:40,350
+التغير في الـ index خلينا ناخد مثال بسيط لو كان أنا
+
+268
+00:20:40,350 --> 00:20:46,670
+عندي الـ index just include A,B,C الـ D ليس موجودا و
+
+269
+00:20:46,670 --> 00:20:51,450
+هذا الانديكس موجود فقط في 3 شركات و نحن لدينا D
+
+270
+00:20:51,450 --> 00:20:56,110
+نحن لدينا E نحن لدينا F J وكذلك يعني المؤشر بس
+
+271
+00:20:56,110 --> 00:21:00,770
+بحتوي على تلت شركات و احنا رتبنا وجدنا أفضل تلت
+
+272
+00:21:00,770 --> 00:21:05,750
+شركات اللي هو ABC بعد 3 أشهر بعد 3 أشهر بعد تلت
+
+273
+00:21:05,750 --> 00:21:11,880
+شهور نحن نحفظ هذا و بنعمل ranking و نجد A,B,E
+
+274
+00:21:11,880 --> 00:21:16,660
+بفاصلة 3 So it means C will leave the market, the
+
+275
+00:21:16,660 --> 00:21:22,740
+index and we add up E بنضيف الـ E بدلها So the
+
+276
+00:21:22,740 --> 00:21:31,000
+investors they replace C by E بيبدلوا الـ C بالـ E
+
+277
+00:21:31,000 --> 00:21:35,320
+في المحفظة تبعكم أو في الـ mutual funds ليش؟ لأن
+
+278
+00:21:35,320 --> 00:21:39,200
+already the financial market or the index is
+
+279
+00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:46,430
+designed to help investors to categorize companies
+
+280
+00:21:46,430 --> 00:21:48,610
+based on the market capitalization based on the
+
+281
+00:21:48,610 --> 00:21:53,690
+liquidity based on the profitability يعني السوق
+
+282
+00:21:53,690 --> 00:21:57,810
+المالي بنى مؤشر عشان يساعد الناس يعرفوا مين
+
+283
+00:21:57,810 --> 00:22:01,270
+الشركات أول عشر شركات تانية عشر شركات and and so
+
+284
+00:22:01,270 --> 00:22:04,870
+on so you don't need to waste your time on looking
+
+285
+00:22:04,870 --> 00:22:08,350
+for or searching of the best companies
+
+286
+00:22:12,080 --> 00:22:19,360
+Okay كيف؟ لأ كانوا a و b و c okay بعدين صارت a و d
+
+287
+00:22:19,360 --> 00:22:25,820
+و e صارت a و b و e صارت .. هلا عملنا لهم ranking
+
+288
+00:22:25,820 --> 00:22:31,760
+وجدنا أنه حسب الـ ranking a و b و e أفضل ف why ..
+
+289
+00:22:31,760 --> 00:22:37,060
+why you are keeping c إذا .. إذا .. ه .. وبالتالي
+
+290
+00:22:37,060 --> 00:22:41,620
+هتطلع من الـ index هنروح نبدلها بـ e فالـ investors
+
+291
+00:22:41,620 --> 00:22:50,540
+..الآن السوق قرر أن a و b ايه the best؟ الـ index،
+
+292
+00:22:50,540 --> 00:22:55,660
+هذه الـ index، هاي الـ index okay؟ هلأ انت عندك
+
+293
+00:22:55,660 --> 00:22:58,760
+portfolio، you are mimicking the index، you are
+
+294
+00:22:58,760 --> 00:23:02,830
+mimicking the index، what it means mimicking؟ يعني
+
+295
+00:23:02,830 --> 00:23:06,870
+احنا بنقلد الـ index لأنه بنعرف ان الـ index هم أفضل
+
+296
+00:23:06,870 --> 00:23:11,290
+الناس فبيروحوا بنسوي بنستثمر في الـ index mimicking
+
+297
+00:23:11,290 --> 00:23:15,910
+or copying أنا معايا فلوس بروح بقلد الـ index لما
+
+298
+00:23:15,910 --> 00:23:19,230
+قلدت الـ index في المرحلة الأولى كان a,b,c هلأ لما
+
+299
+00:23:19,230 --> 00:23:26,610
+اتغير صار a,b,e و بتسهل لازم أرفع الـ c و أحط a,b,e
+
+300
+00:23:26,610 --> 00:23:31,390
+و بضيف الـ e in this case الـ investors are selling
+
+301
+00:23:32,440 --> 00:23:38,960
+بيبيعوا C and buying E بيبيعوا الـ C و بيشتريوا الـ
+
+302
+00:23:38,960 --> 00:23:42,660
+E عشان يعرفوا انه نفسهم and they are mimicking
+
+303
+00:23:42,660 --> 00:23:52,040
+mimicking or copying mimicking mimic يقلد
+
+304
+00:23:52,040 --> 00:23:57,120
+mimicking the index or copying the index يحاولوا
+
+305
+00:23:57,120 --> 00:24:00,440
+ان يقلدوا الـ index عشان يشتريوا راسهم بدون مش
+
+306
+00:24:00,440 --> 00:24:01,100
+مشاكل okay
+
+307
+00:24:04,920 --> 00:24:11,160
+شمالهم الـ investors مثلا okay أنا
+
+308
+00:24:11,160 --> 00:24:13,780
+مش عارفة أنا لأ بتكون شارية مثلا أنا مش حابب ال ..
+
+309
+00:24:13,780 --> 00:24:23,340
+okay read it okay go home and read it سهلة
+
+310
+00:24:23,340 --> 00:24:30,680
+انتبهوا معاها هلا احنا في عندنا طلاب اختارنا أفضل
+
+311
+00:24:30,680 --> 00:24:35,760
+تلات طالبات تمام؟ هدول أخدناهم الـ benchmark تبعنا
+
+312
+00:24:35,760 --> 00:24:40,660
+ايش الـ benchmark؟ benchmark يعني بقياس هلأ كل تلات
+
+313
+00:24:40,660 --> 00:24:45,300
+شهور بنعمل مراجعة للصف لأن أفضل تلات شهور .. تلات
+
+314
+00:24:45,300 --> 00:24:48,120
+.. واحدة كسرت من البنات زي ما حكت بنستبدلها بواحدة
+
+315
+00:24:48,120 --> 00:24:52,540
+أخرى وبالتالي الـ benchmark تبعنا بيصير الطالبتين
+
+316
+00:24:52,540 --> 00:24:55,260
+اللي ضالهم زائد الطالبة اللي كسرت أخدنا واحدة
+
+317
+00:24:55,260 --> 00:24:59,200
+بدلها هلأ أنا as investors هذا الـ market هيك as
+
+318
+00:24:59,200 --> 00:25:03,500
+investors because there is a change in the index في
+
+319
+00:25:03,500 --> 00:25:07,840
+تغير في الـ index صار so I'm try to copy this بحاول
+
+320
+00:25:07,840 --> 00:25:13,840
+أنا أقلد أقلدهم عندهم كان أول a و b و c بعد تلت
+
+321
+00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:18,380
+شهور راحوا راجعوا الـ index صار عندهم a و b و e أنا
+
+322
+00:25:18,380 --> 00:25:22,280
+كـ investors still عندي a و b و c لكن because I'm
+
+323
+00:25:22,280 --> 00:25:25,240
+mimicking the index لأنه أنا بتقلد هذا so I have
+
+324
+00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:32,300
+to sell c and buy e لازم أبيع الـ C because C is
+
+325
+00:25:32,300 --> 00:25:36,920
+less equality or the least equality أقل جودة so
+
+326
+00:25:36,920 --> 00:25:43,040
+leave it and bring the new company سيبوها و جيبوا
+
+327
+00:25:43,040 --> 00:25:49,490
+الشركة الجديدة okay for more understanding go to
+
+328
+00:25:49,490 --> 00:25:53,530
+science direct and quote my name اكتبوا اسمي
+
+329
+00:25:53,530 --> 00:26:00,670
+هتجدوا في two three articles explain how this work
+
+330
+00:26:00,670 --> 00:26:02,910
+روح على science direct www
+
+331
+00:26:15,060 --> 00:26:17,780
+بتيجيكوا www.sciencedirect.com ادخلوا عليها
+
+332
+00:26:17,780 --> 00:26:22,920
+بيجيكوا الـ author اكتبوا اسمه حيجيكم some articles
+
+333
+00:26:22,920 --> 00:26:27,940
+بعض الـ articles بعض الأبحاث show you how how the
+
+334
+00:26:27,940 --> 00:26:32,660
+index is built كيف الـ index بنعمل هذا للناس اللي
+
+335
+00:26:32,660 --> 00:26:37,440
+بدها information يعني بدها معلومات by
+
+336
+00:26:37,440 --> 00:26:42,730
+index we have time buy exchange traded funds buy
+
+337
+00:26:42,730 --> 00:26:45,930
+exchange traded funds I will explain this in next
+
+338
+00:26:45,930 --> 00:26:48,990
+chapter which is related to the mutual funds
+
+339
+00:26:48,990 --> 00:26:56,570
+exchange traded funds it means it looks like the
+
+340
+00:26:56,570 --> 00:27:01,730
+mutual funds تشبه صناديق الاستثمار Okay they adjust
+
+341
+00:27:01,730 --> 00:27:07,190
+some investors they create small portfolios and
+
+342
+00:27:07,190 --> 00:27:10,550
+they rebalance these portfolios according to the
+
+343
+00:27:10,550 --> 00:27:13,670
+changes in the index يعني بعض المستثمرين بيوجدوا
+
+344
+00:27:13,670 --> 00:27:16,730
+هذه المحافظة الصغيرة و هذه المحافظة الصغيرة بتكون
+
+345
+00:27:16,730 --> 00:27:20,910
+تقلد الـ index و أيش بيستغير بالـ index هم بيحاولوا
+
+346
+00:27:20,910 --> 00:27:26,070
+يغيروا في الـ portfolios تبعتهم other indexes
+
+347
+00:27:26,070 --> 00:27:30,330
+مؤشرات أخرى في عندنا other indexes، في عندنا New
+
+348
+00:27:30,330 --> 00:27:34,090
+York Stock Exchange Composite، في عندنا Nasdaq
+
+349
+00:27:34,090 --> 00:27:39,590
+Composite، الـ .. الـ Nasdaq هذا مؤشر صناعي، مؤشر
+
+350
+00:27:39,590 --> 00:27:43,090
+مهم و هذا يعتبر من تاني أكبر سوق في الولايات
+
+351
+00:27:43,090 --> 00:27:49,320
+المتحدة الأمريكية، عندنا أخذوا معلومات عنهم يعني
+
+352
+00:27:49,320 --> 00:27:53,400
+اعرفوهم بس Wilshire 5000 يعني مش هأسألكم عنهم كتير
+
+353
+00:27:53,400 --> 00:27:57,920
+الـ foreign indexes غير الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية
+
+354
+00:27:57,920 --> 00:28:01,760
+في مؤشر الـ Nikkei هذا مؤشر مهم بتاع Japan بتاع
+
+355
+00:28:01,760 --> 00:28:05,420
+اليابان مؤشر Tokyo في عندنا الـ FTSE one hundred
+
+356
+00:28:05,420 --> 00:28:10,280
+الـ FTSE تبع لندن طبعا هذا بيشمل تقريبا 25% من
+
+357
+00:28:10,280 --> 00:28:14,600
+الشركات في العالم عندنا الـ DAX تبع ألمانيا وفي عندنا
+
+358
+00:28:14,600 --> 00:28:17,400
+الـ Hang Seng تبع هونج كونج وفي عندنا الـ TSX تبع
+
+359
+00:28:17,400 --> 00:28:20,840
+كندا في عندنا الـ TSE تبع اسطنبول stock exchange,
+
+360
+00:28:21,100 --> 00:28:25,220
+we have TASE تبع تل أبيب وعندنا القدس تبع الـ في
+
+361
+00:28:25,220 --> 00:28:30,220
+الإسكندرية و القاهرة في مصر, we have in Amman,
+
+362
+00:28:30,380 --> 00:28:38,280
+Jordan, we have the Karachi in Pakistan You have
+
+363
+00:28:38,280 --> 00:28:43,780
+many indices in the world any financial markets
+
+364
+00:28:43,780 --> 00:28:48,220
+have to have index ما فيش أي financial market مايله
+
+365
+00:28:48,220 --> 00:28:53,880
+index okay سواء كان CAC, CAC40, DAX ولا كان
+
+366
+00:28:53,880 --> 00:28:57,940
+Nikkei ولا كان Dow Jones ولا كان S&P500 and
+
+367
+00:28:57,940 --> 00:29:05,150
+derivative markets I think I I talk about the
+
+368
+00:29:05,150 --> 00:29:10,710
+derivative markets اللي هو أسواق المشتقات أسواق
+
+369
+00:29:10,710 --> 00:29:15,330
+المشتقات derivatives
+
+370
+00:29:15,330 --> 00:29:19,840
+as I explained before in the in chapter one زي ما
+
+371
+00:29:19,840 --> 00:29:23,780
+احنا حكينا بـ chapter one, we have options, we have
+
+372
+00:29:23,780 --> 00:29:27,080
+futures, we have swap and we have forwards في عندنا
+
+373
+00:29:27,080 --> 00:29:29,700
+هدول الأربع أنواع، so I'm not going in details
+
+374
+00:29:29,700 --> 00:29:34,860
+about this because we will have more details in
+
+375
+00:29:34,860 --> 00:29:37,520
+the chapters, no, today I'm going to finish this
+
+376
+00:29:37,520 --> 00:29:40,480
+Chapter options and futures provide payoff that
+
+377
+00:29:40,480 --> 00:29:43,000
+depend on the values of other assets, we explain
+
+378
+00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:48,070
+this. It means the value of options or the value of
+
+379
+00:29:48,070 --> 00:29:52,070
+derivatives is derived from the financial assets
+
+380
+00:29:52,070 --> 00:29:58,610
+particularly the derivatives invested in the
+
+381
+00:29:58,610 --> 00:30:01,550
+changes of the price. يعني ال derivatives المشتقات 
+
+382
+00:30:01,550 --> 00:30:06,570
+فقط بتستثمر في الأسعار ما بتستثمر في ال real
+
+383
+00:30:06,570 --> 00:30:10,270
+assets. A derivative is a security that gets its
+
+384
+00:30:10,270 --> 00:30:12,390
+value from the value of another asset, and we
+
+385
+00:30:12,390 --> 00:30:16,360
+explained this. The first one in the option, option
+
+386
+00:30:16,360 --> 00:30:20,420
+have two types. في عندنا ال call و في عندنا ال put
+
+387
+00:30:20,420 --> 00:30:23,140
+في عندنا نوعين من ال .. من ال options الخيارات في 
+
+388
+00:30:23,140 --> 00:30:26,020
+عندنا ال call option و في عندنا ال put option. ال
+
+389
+00:30:26,020 --> 00:30:28,260
+call option, you are buyer, و ال put option, you are
+
+390
+00:30:28,260 --> 00:30:31,220
+seller. يعني ال call option أنت بتشتري في ال buy
+
+391
+00:30:31,220 --> 00:30:35,620
+option, you are بتبيع. يعني في الأولى أنت بتشتري و
+
+392
+00:30:35,620 --> 00:30:39,460
+في الثانية احنا بنبيع. And the definition is right
+
+393
+00:30:39,460 --> 00:30:42,080
+to buy underlying asset at the strike or exercise
+
+394
+00:30:42,080 --> 00:30:45,760
+price. Strike or exercise price هو لسعر التثبيت
+
+395
+00:30:45,760 --> 00:30:49,620
+يعني زي ما احنا حكينا انه بنثبت سعر. يعني مثلا
+
+396
+00:30:49,620 --> 00:30:55,360
+بنشتري stock ايه على تلاتين دولار. But this is in
+
+397
+00:30:55,360 --> 00:31:01,500
+the futures. So the strike price is 30, we have to pay
+
+398
+00:31:01,500 --> 00:31:05,500
+a premium. نفرض انه two dollar. So the price, the
+
+399
+00:31:05,500 --> 00:31:09,620
+strike price 30 plus two, which is equal 32. It
+
+400
+00:31:09,620 --> 00:31:11,920
+doesn't matter, it doesn't matter what is the price
+
+401
+00:31:11,920 --> 00:31:14,680
+in the future. مابيعنناش ايش السعر في المستقبل. We
+
+402
+00:31:14,680 --> 00:31:19,520
+fix the price على 32. 30 plus two. Two is the
+
+403
+00:31:19,520 --> 00:31:23,620
+premium. Just go back to the chapter one, and you
+
+404
+00:31:23,620 --> 00:31:26,280
+will understand how it works. Value of calls
+
+405
+00:31:26,280 --> 00:31:31,380
+decrease as strike prices increase. ال value of
+
+406
+00:31:31,380 --> 00:31:36,200
+calls decrease. قيمة ال call اللي هو الشراء بتنخفض
+
+407
+00:31:36,200 --> 00:31:41,680
+كل ما زاد سعر ال option
+
+408
+00:31:41,680 --> 00:31:49,640
+Okay, and the opposite, البط عكسه تماما. البط هي
+
+409
+00:31:49,640 --> 00:31:55,040
+البيع. يعني مثلا انا حكيت انه بدى اشتري السعر على 32
+
+410
+00:31:55,040 --> 00:32:00,120
+في واحد بالطرف الآخر ببيع بده يعمل اللي هو bought
+
+411
+00:32:00,120 --> 00:32:03,860
+option. اللي هو بيع. The put option is right to
+
+412
+00:32:03,860 --> 00:32:07,060
+sell. Careful here. Right to buy and right to sell.
+
+413
+00:32:07,060 --> 00:32:13,460
+يعني احنا بدنا نبيع السهم. طب هلأ اللي بده يبيع
+
+414
+00:32:13,460 --> 00:32:21,190
+السهم بخاف السهم ينخفض ولا يرتفع؟ ينخفض. So he go to
+
+415
+00:32:21,190 --> 00:32:24,870
+the option market to hedge against the decrease of
+
+416
+00:32:24,870 --> 00:32:29,910
+the financial markets. عشان يتحوط ضد الانخفاض. يعني
+
+417
+00:32:29,910 --> 00:32:32,750
+الناس اللي بيروحوا على ال put option بيروحوا عشان
+
+418
+00:32:32,750 --> 00:32:37,750
+يتحوطوا ضد انخفاض السعر. الناس اللي بدخلوا بال call
+
+419
+00:32:37,750 --> 00:32:45,050
+option هم بتحوطوا ضد ارتفاع السعر. يعني عكس بعض. And
+
+420
+00:32:45,050 --> 00:32:48,790
+again, try to sell underlying asset at the strike
+
+421
+00:32:48,790 --> 00:32:53,230
+or exercise price. طبعا بتفق مع بعض. أنا برضه انه
+
+422
+00:32:53,230 --> 00:32:59,310
+السعر مثلا تلاتين. اذا كان ال strike بس هنا ال
+
+423
+00:32:59,310 --> 00:33:04,950
+premium بتسميها discount خصم. يعني اذا كانت هنا
+
+424
+00:33:04,950 --> 00:33:07,970
+premium ده تكون هنا ايش؟ discount. بدل ما هي تلاتين
+
+425
+00:33:07,970 --> 00:33:16,620
+بتصير كام؟ تمانية و عشرين. بس هذا هو الفرق. Value
+
+426
+00:33:16,620 --> 00:33:21,180
+of puts increase with the strike price. يعني هنا
+
+427
+00:33:21,180 --> 00:33:26,080
+قيمة ال puts بتنخفض بتزيد. بس هنا قيمة ال call
+
+428
+00:33:26,080 --> 00:33:31,760
+بتزيد. عكسهم تماما. المهم
+
+429
+00:33:35,080 --> 00:33:39,300
+المهم نفهم بال .. بال options. بال options ال call
+
+430
+00:33:39,300 --> 00:33:43,120
+options و ال put option. ال call يعني شراء. ال put
+
+431
+00:33:43,120 --> 00:33:47,800
+هو بيع. بال call option انه أنا بدخل ضد ارتفاع
+
+432
+00:33:47,800 --> 00:33:51,320
+الأسعار. بال put option أنا بدخل ضد انخفاض الأسعار.
+
+433
+00:33:51,320 --> 00:33:59,460
+ال futures. ال futures هي تشبه ال option. يعني هاي
+
+434
+00:33:59,460 --> 00:34:04,440
+المستقبلية تشبه ال option. وكمان حكيناها ب chapter
+
+435
+00:34:04,440 --> 00:34:08,380
+one. لكن الفرق هي مافيش فيه premium و مافيش فيها
+
+436
+00:34:08,380 --> 00:34:13,800
+discount. مافيش فيه علاوة. خلاص نتسبت سعر. نفرض ان
+
+437
+00:34:13,800 --> 00:34:18,060
+احنا سبتناها تلاتين. There
+
+438
+00:34:18,060 --> 00:34:21,740
+is no premium, there is no discount. خلاص. And we
+
+439
+00:34:21,740 --> 00:34:27,200
+have to exercise. و لازم احنا ننفذ. بال option, why it
+
+440
+00:34:27,200 --> 00:34:30,300
+is called option because we have to exercise or
+
+441
+00:34:30,300 --> 00:34:36,900
+not. يعني اننا حق ننفذ او لأ. اذا ما نفذناش بتروح
+
+442
+00:34:36,900 --> 00:34:40,140
+علينا ال premium or ال discount. But in the future
+
+443
+00:34:40,140 --> 00:34:44,540
+you have to exercise. Exercise يعني ننفذ. يعني ال
+
+444
+00:34:44,540 --> 00:34:48,500
+future لازم احنا ننفذ. A future contract calls for
+
+445
+00:34:48,500 --> 00:34:55,220
+delivery of an asset at a specific time, a specific
+
+446
+00:34:55,220 --> 00:34:58,380
+delivery or maturity date for an agreed upon price
+
+447
+00:34:58,380 --> 00:35:01,360
+called the future price to be paid at the contract
+
+448
+00:35:01,360 --> 00:35:09,480
+maturity. يعني مثلا في ال future ثبتنا السعر تلاتين
+
+449
+00:35:09,480 --> 00:35:14,420
+ثبتناه. هلا نبدأ نشوف إيش الأسعار هتصير في اليوم
+
+450
+00:35:14,420 --> 00:35:19,290
+الأول، التاني، التالت، الرابع، till the maturity. ال
+
+451
+00:35:19,290 --> 00:35:23,330
+maturity, ايش ال maturity يعني الاستحقاق. هلأ بنشوف
+
+452
+00:35:23,330 --> 00:35:27,790
+السعر. السعر صار thirty one. طب عم نحسب ال profit و
+
+453
+00:35:27,790 --> 00:35:33,510
+المال PL الربح و الخسارة. تلاتين، خسرنا ولا ربحنا؟
+
+454
+00:35:33,510 --> 00:35:39,230
+ربحنا واحد. طيب تاني يوم صارت نفرض تسعة و عشرين،
+
+455
+00:35:39,230 --> 00:35:45,170
+اتنين و تلاتين، خمسة و تلاتين، تمانية و عشرين، وهكذا.
+
+456
+00:35:45,170 --> 00:35:50,830
+اليوم التاني تسعة و عشرين، خسرنا واحد، minus one. لو
+
+457
+00:35:50,830 --> 00:35:55,790
+اجينا احنا عاملنا balance هيك. Balance هنا ربح one،
+
+458
+00:35:55,790 --> 00:36:01,810
+هنا zero. يعني ربحنا واحد و خسرنا واحد، zero. طيب
+
+459
+00:36:01,810 --> 00:36:05,570
+باليوم التاسعة اتنين و تلاتين، ربحنا اتنين. دايما
+
+460
+00:36:05,570 --> 00:36:09,390
+على exercise ربحنا اتنين. ال balance تبعتنا اتنين.
+
+461
+00:36:09,390 --> 00:36:14,530
+خمسة و تلاتين ربحنا five. فال balance تبعنا بيصير
+
+462
+00:36:14,530 --> 00:36:20,320
+كان seven. خمسة و اتنين سبعة. هلأ ال تمانية و عشرين
+
+463
+00:36:20,320 --> 00:36:25,900
+خسرنا تمانية و عشرين، minus two. بيظل معنا خمسة. And
+
+464
+00:36:25,900 --> 00:36:29,360
+so on. اخر ال maturity date بيحسبوا كم احنا ربحنا
+
+465
+00:36:29,360 --> 00:36:31,480
+او خسرنا. And they give it to the investors.
+
+466
+00:36:31,480 --> 00:36:35,660
+وبيعطوها لل investors. باخر اليوم بيحسبوا كم ربحنا
+
+467
+00:36:35,660 --> 00:36:39,260
+او خسرنا. وبالتالي بيقدروا طبعا انتوا مالكمش بال
+
+468
+00:36:39,260 --> 00:36:42,420
+balance. لان I think you may get confused from
+
+469
+00:36:42,420 --> 00:36:45,460
+understanding the balance. Just understand the
+
+470
+00:36:45,460 --> 00:36:48,620
+profit and loss. يعني بدكم تعرفوا كيف الربح و
+
+471
+00:36:48,620 --> 00:36:53,600
+الخسارة. طيب
+
+472
+00:36:55,910 --> 00:37:00,290
+احنا في ال future contract بناخد شغلة اسمة long
+
+473
+00:37:00,290 --> 00:37:06,770
+position و short position. البناس مش مطلوب منك بس
+
+474
+00:37:06,770 --> 00:37:12,230
+كيف حسبتي. بتروح بتجمع هدول واحد واحد واحد ناقص
+
+475
+00:37:12,230 --> 00:37:16,490
+واحد صفر سهل. واحد ناقص واحد صفر و اتنين اتنين. واحد
+
+476
+00:37:16,490 --> 00:37:20,530
+ناقص واحد صفر و اتنين و خمسة سبعة. بس جمعيهم جمع
+
+477
+00:37:20,530 --> 00:37:24,160
+عادي. أنا صار سبعة و انا انا انا انا انا انا انا
+
+478
+00:37:24,160 --> 00:37:25,320
+انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا
+
+479
+00:37:25,320 --> 00:37:25,720
+انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا
+
+480
+00:37:25,720 --> 00:37:30,140
+انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا
+
+481
+00:37:30,140 --> 00:37:30,260
+انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا
+
+482
+00:37:30,260 --> 00:37:33,980
+انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا
+
+483
+00:37:33,980 --> 00:37:34,000
+انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا
+
+484
+00:37:34,000 --> 00:37:34,560
+انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا انا
+
+485
+00:37:34,560 --> 00:37:51,420
+انا انا انا انا انا انا
+
+486
+00:37:51,420 --> 00:37:55,580
+انا. You go short لما بيحكوا في ال financial market
+
+487
+00:37:55,580 --> 00:37:58,800
+you go short, it means you sell. You go long, it
+
+488
+00:37:58,800 --> 00:38:02,700
+means buy. افهموا ما دول مصطلحات ال financial
+
+489
+00:38:02,700 --> 00:38:07,640
+markets. It's new for you. يعني لو تترجموها ميه
+
+490
+00:38:07,640 --> 00:38:11,660
+الترجمة long مش هتعرفوها. Buy و sell مظبوط ولا لأ؟
+
+491
+00:38:11,660 --> 00:38:18,700
+Long و short. Okay. هلا الفرق بين ال option و ال
+
+492
+00:38:18,700 --> 00:38:19,060
+future.
+
+493
+00:38:23,570 --> 00:38:29,390
+Long, buy, و short, sell. It means in long you are
+
+494
+00:38:29,390 --> 00:38:32,750
+take the delivery, take delivery at maturity, take
+
+495
+00:38:32,750 --> 00:38:38,210
+يعني بناخد. يعني احنا buy صح ولا لأ؟ لما بناخد we
+
+496
+00:38:38,210 --> 00:38:43,390
+buy, when make delivery. يعني بنعطي معناه الكلام. We
+
+497
+00:38:43,390 --> 00:38:49,300
+sell. Okay. بنبيع. الفرق بين ال option و ال future
+
+498
+00:38:49,300 --> 00:38:55,120
+الفرق الأول option is right. يعني ممكن و لأ. يعني
+
+499
+00:38:55,120 --> 00:38:58,000
+ممكن نفذ و ممكن ما ننفذ. It is right but not
+
+500
+00:38:58,000 --> 00:39:02,980
+obligation. لكن مش شرط لازم ننفذ to buy or sell. 
+
+501
+00:39:02,980 --> 00:39:07,790
+option is exercise only when it is profitable يعني
+
+502
+00:39:07,790 --> 00:39:10,990
+بس بننفذ لما يصير في عنا ربح بننفذش مع الكلام we 
+
+503
+00:39:10,990 --> 00:39:13,790
+lose only the premium يعني هنخسر بس ال premium
+
+504
+00:39:13,790 --> 00:39:17,110
+option must be purchased لازم نشتري ال option
+
+505
+00:39:17,110 --> 00:39:21,510
+نشتري ال call و بنبيع ال put the premium is the
+
+506
+00:39:21,510 --> 00:39:24,870
+price of the option itself ال premium نفسها سعر ال
+
+507
+00:39:24,870 --> 00:39:29,370
+option لأن احنا فقط بندفع ال premium لكن ال future
+
+508
+00:39:29,370 --> 00:39:34,010
+contract we have to obliged to make or to take
+
+509
+00:39:34,010 --> 00:39:38,290
+delivery لازم لازم لازم نروح يا اما ان انا اما
+
+510
+00:39:38,290 --> 00:39:41,190
+ننفذ او ننفذ يعني so you don't have any option
+
+511
+00:39:41,190 --> 00:39:45,890
+ماعناش any option so you have to exercise long
+
+512
+00:39:45,890 --> 00:39:51,450
+position must buy زي ما احنا شرحناها لازم نشتري at
+
+513
+00:39:51,450 --> 00:39:55,470
+the future prices short position must sell okay
+
+514
+00:39:56,420 --> 00:39:59,300
+just accept donation احنا ال call option حكينا
+
+515
+00:39:59,300 --> 00:40:03,040
+فيها buy ال put option حكينا فيها sell future
+
+516
+00:40:03,040 --> 00:40:07,000
+contracts are entered into without cost مابتكلفناش
+
+517
+00:40:07,000 --> 00:40:12,060
+اشي just set the price لكن بال options دفعنا
+
+518
+00:40:12,060 --> 00:40:16,080
+premium او discount بس ال future you just fix the
+
+519
+00:40:16,080 --> 00:40:16,400
+price 
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/v6IUQRHhRTw.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/v6IUQRHhRTw.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..aa23ccd34c1e6c1ef36e3df013aeeb1cf2ea9e40
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/v6IUQRHhRTw.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1907 @@
+1
+00:00:20,970 --> 00:00:25,070
+بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم نكمل احنا بال chapter three
+
+2
+00:00:25,070 --> 00:00:29,170
+we were talking in the previous meeting we talked about
+
+3
+00:00:29,170 --> 00:00:33,290
+the investment investment banking process يعني
+
+4
+00:00:33,290 --> 00:00:36,230
+الإجراءات بتاعة ال investment bank في ال primary
+
+5
+00:00:36,230 --> 00:00:39,390
+market وحكينا عن ال primary market هي السوق الأولي
+
+6
+00:00:39,390 --> 00:00:43,070
+okay حكينا
+
+7
+00:00:43,070 --> 00:00:49,370
+بال shelf registration أخر مرة واضح اليوم بنا نركز
+
+8
+00:00:49,370 --> 00:00:53,300
+على ال investment bankingعمليات ال investment
+
+9
+00:00:53,300 --> 00:00:57,340
+banking و نحكي على ال bid ask spread كيف بيحددوا
+
+10
+00:00:57,340 --> 00:01:01,680
+الأسعار ال bid و ال bid و ال ask في السوق المعني
+
+11
+00:01:01,680 --> 00:01:05,000
+طبعا الآن نيجي نحكي private placement I think I
+
+12
+00:01:05,000 --> 00:01:08,200
+explained private placement, did I? So I explained
+
+13
+00:01:08,200 --> 00:01:12,060
+this and I said it's cheaper than public, it's okay.
+
+14
+00:01:15,630 --> 00:01:18,870
+Okay, initial public offerings, نحكي بال initial
+
+15
+00:01:18,870 --> 00:01:24,110
+public offerings, حكينا ال investment banking the
+
+16
+00:01:24,110 --> 00:01:28,350
+investment bank is in charge of the market, the initial
+
+17
+00:01:28,350 --> 00:01:32,010
+public offerings, يعني هم البنوك الاستثمار مسئولة
+
+18
+00:01:32,010 --> 00:01:35,910
+عن تصويخ اللي هو الإصدارات الأولية initial public
+
+19
+00:01:35,910 --> 00:01:40,990
+offerings, وفي process لازم نمشي فيه, and this
+
+20
+00:01:40,990 --> 00:01:43,910
+process زي ما أنتم شايفين includes one, two, three
+
+21
+00:01:43,910 --> 00:01:47,670
+main steps, في تلات خطوات رئيسية, the first step is
+
+22
+00:01:47,670 --> 00:01:51,430
+road shows, أول خطوة هي ال road shows, ال road shows
+
+23
+00:01:51,430 --> 00:01:57,580
+زي مثلا انه انا road shows انه أوضح الطريق، أوضح
+
+24
+00:01:57,580 --> 00:02:01,940
+الطريق، يعني الشركة الاستثمار أو بنك الاستثمار
+
+25
+00:02:01,940 --> 00:02:07,680
+بياخد ال prospectus الدليل و بيعمل publicizing to
+
+26
+00:02:07,680 --> 00:02:14,060
+the underwriting, بيعمل نشر لتوعية الاستثمار يعني
+
+27
+00:02:14,060 --> 00:02:19,260
+ان هم بيروحوا على شركات التجارية و شركات الصناعية
+
+28
+00:02:19,260 --> 00:02:23,080
+و كبار المستثمرين و بيعرضوا عليهم الشركة الجديدة
+
+29
+00:02:23,080 --> 00:02:27,760
+هذه بيسموها road shows، بوضحولهم شو أهداف الشركة و
+
+30
+00:02:27,760 --> 00:02:30,720
+الأسعار المتوقعة و إيش المجالات الاستثمار اللي
+
+31
+00:02:30,720 --> 00:02:34,620
+فيها حتى يعني to encourage them to invest in this
+
+32
+00:02:34,620 --> 00:02:38,330
+company، يشجعوهم يستثمروا في هذه الشركة فهذه الطريقة
+
+33
+00:02:38,330 --> 00:02:41,670
+بيسموها road shows، إذا ال road shows the main
+
+34
+00:02:41,670 --> 00:02:44,970
+important of road shows is to publicize a new
+
+35
+00:02:44,970 --> 00:02:48,350
+offerings، من ترجمتها زي ما أنتم شايفين road shows
+
+36
+00:02:48,350 --> 00:02:52,230
+يعني هي road shows توضيح الطريق، ال main objective
+
+37
+00:02:52,230 --> 00:02:59,530
+مين هم المؤسسين؟ كيف المستقبل تبع الشركة؟ مين ال ..
+
+38
+00:02:59,530 --> 00:03:02,310
+إيش ال .. المنتجات اللي هتخدمها الشركة؟ شو هتستفيد
+
+39
+00:03:02,310 --> 00:03:04,790
+الشركة؟ إيش الأرباح المتوقعة على الشركة هذه؟ إيش
+
+40
+00:03:04,790 --> 00:03:08,250
+الناس اللي هتشتغل في هذه الشركة؟ وبتالي هم يعني زي
+
+41
+00:03:08,250 --> 00:03:13,370
+بيعملوهم ترويج لهذه الشركة و .. و .. و نشر توعية
+
+42
+00:03:13,370 --> 00:03:16,910
+بهذه الشركة، فهي بيسموها road shows، في ال road
+
+43
+00:03:16,910 --> 00:03:22,450
+shows، لنفترض انه احنا ال .. انا ال underwriter انا
+
+44
+00:03:22,450 --> 00:03:24,930
+ال investment bank، انا شركة الاستثمار و أنتم
+
+45
+00:03:24,930 --> 00:03:29,310
+الجمهور ال .. التجار و المستثمرين و أصحاب البنوك و
+
+46
+00:03:29,310 --> 00:03:32,970
+أصحاب المؤسسات، فانا بروح لوحد و بعمل list فيهم
+
+47
+00:03:32,970 --> 00:03:40,730
+اللي هو أنتم نعتبركم المؤسسات، بعمل list، okay
+
+48
+00:03:41,090 --> 00:03:47,070
+مثلا A, B, C, D, E and so on، باجي لأول واحد مثلا A
+
+49
+00:03:47,070 --> 00:03:50,390
+باجي لال أخت اللي هي بحكي لها والله احنا عندنا
+
+50
+00:03:50,390 --> 00:03:55,850
+شركة هادى و بتنتج كذا و استثماراتها في المستقبل
+
+51
+00:03:55,850 --> 00:04:01,350
+هتكون كويسة، فأنت شو رأيك؟ ف maybe she agree on this
+
+52
+00:04:01,350 --> 00:04:07,080
+ف I put like a click، I go to the second company or
+
+53
+00:04:07,080 --> 00:04:08,880
+the second institution or the second investor
+
+54
+00:04:08,880 --> 00:04:14,080
+maybe he or she disagree، ممكن انه disagree، okay
+
+55
+00:04:14,080 --> 00:04:18,860
+the third and so on، so in this way I know the
+
+56
+00:04:18,860 --> 00:04:22,940
+demand of on the company، بشوف الطلب على الشركة
+
+57
+00:04:22,940 --> 00:04:26,400
+الجديدة، and this is not book building، هاي طريقة
+
+58
+00:04:26,400 --> 00:04:30,280
+بسموها إيش؟ book building، book building is to know
+
+59
+00:04:30,280 --> 00:04:35,100
+what is the demand from the investors or from the
+
+60
+00:04:35,100 --> 00:04:38,000
+local companies or international companies، انا
+
+61
+00:04:38,000 --> 00:04:41,720
+بروح بزيرهم يعني زي واحد بيبقى عنده منتج جديد بروح
+
+62
+00:04:41,720 --> 00:04:44,040
+البقالات اللي في البلد بيقولوا شو رأيكم بهالمنتجات
+
+63
+00:04:44,040 --> 00:04:46,920
+فالناس اللي بتوافق على المنتج بيعمل عليها click
+
+64
+00:04:46,920 --> 00:04:50,540
+والناس اللي ما بتوافق بحط عليها X بحيث انه to
+
+65
+00:04:50,540 --> 00:04:56,360
+evaluate the demand on this product, and the same
+
+66
+00:04:56,360 --> 00:05:01,390
+thing in the investment banking، فعرفنا ال road
+
+67
+00:05:01,390 --> 00:05:06,010
+shows، وعرفنا ال book building، and
+
+68
+00:05:06,010 --> 00:05:08,770
+the degree of investor .. the .. the degree of
+
+69
+00:05:08,770 --> 00:05:11,910
+investor or the interest of the investors, let's go
+
+70
+00:05:11,910 --> 00:05:14,310
+back to the .. to the list، خلينا نرجع لل list هاي
+
+71
+00:05:14,310 --> 00:05:23,680
+okay، نرجع ل a مثلا، a said yes، a said yes, there is
+
+72
+00:05:23,680 --> 00:05:27,060
+yes and there is really yes، there is a difference
+
+73
+00:05:27,060 --> 00:05:32,000
+between yes and really yes، what it means؟ يعني إيش
+
+74
+00:05:32,000 --> 00:05:35,700
+معناها مثلا روحنا لل .. رجعنا لبنتهاي و حكت okay
+
+75
+00:05:35,700 --> 00:05:40,720
+بس حكت بالخجل، بالخجل اه طبعا منيح و زين و
+
+76
+00:05:40,720 --> 00:05:43,680
+الاستثمار طبعا جيد في هالشركة هاي، طبعا عمركم و
+
+77
+00:05:43,680 --> 00:05:49,300
+احنا دعمينكم و توكلوا على الله، يعني okay، she
+
+78
+00:05:49,300 --> 00:05:53,520
+doesn't want to say no، she prefers to say yes but
+
+79
+00:05:53,520 --> 00:05:58,170
+in reality she hides no، لكن بالحقيقة هي بتخفي ال no
+
+80
+00:05:58,170 --> 00:06:03,390
+okay، but when .. so the second time we reevaluate
+
+81
+00:06:03,390 --> 00:06:07,890
+the rest .. the list with people who said yes and
+
+82
+00:06:07,890 --> 00:06:10,770
+see what is the actual interest to invest in the
+
+83
+00:06:10,770 --> 00:06:14,370
+company، حتى نشوف مين هم ال actual interest، مين هم
+
+84
+00:06:14,370 --> 00:06:16,730
+الناس اللي فعلا بدهم يستثمروا في الشركة هذه، some
+
+85
+00:06:16,730 --> 00:06:20,630
+people from .. هدول حكوا because they don't want
+
+86
+00:06:20,630 --> 00:06:28,430
+to say no، okay، حكوا okay لكن مش ..real okay، طبعا
+
+87
+00:06:28,430 --> 00:06:32,730
+يعني زي ما احنا بنحكي بال .. بال .. بالعربي بنحكي
+
+88
+00:06:32,730 --> 00:06:35,350
+انه شو رايك انه هاي المشروع اللي بنعمله؟ شو رايك
+
+89
+00:06:35,350 --> 00:06:39,150
+تستخدمه؟ نقول ان شاء الله، so ان شاء الله it doesn't
+
+90
+00:06:39,150 --> 00:06:47,490
+mean yes، it sometimes it's hidden، Okay, so the
+
+91
+00:06:47,490 --> 00:06:51,450
+thing is to reevaluate the rest whether these
+
+92
+00:06:51,450 --> 00:06:55,630
+people are really investors or not، So the third
+
+93
+00:06:55,630 --> 00:06:59,530
+step is what is the degree of investor interest in
+
+94
+00:06:59,530 --> 00:07:01,410
+the new offering، provides valuable price
+
+95
+00:07:01,410 --> 00:07:05,150
+information، الآن نيجي أحكي هذا، okay, this is
+
+96
+00:07:05,150 --> 00:07:07,390
+really yes and this is really yes and this is
+
+97
+00:07:07,390 --> 00:07:11,090
+really yes، So we have three out of for instance
+
+98
+00:07:11,090 --> 00:07:13,510
+one hundred people are interested to invest in
+
+99
+00:07:13,510 --> 00:07:19,160
+this company، هدول بدهم فعلا، and this is help us to
+
+100
+00:07:19,160 --> 00:07:22,400
+evaluate what is the real price of this company
+
+101
+00:07:22,400 --> 00:07:27,360
+بتساعدنا أنه نعرف السعر الحقيقي للشركة لأنه لما
+
+102
+00:07:27,360 --> 00:07:32,160
+بصير ال demand بزيد أكيد السعر بتحسن، فزي أنتم
+
+103
+00:07:32,160 --> 00:07:38,020
+شايفين هذا ال process، هاي الطريقة it help us to
+
+104
+00:07:38,020 --> 00:07:43,870
+evaluate the real price of the company، So it is
+
+105
+00:07:43,870 --> 00:07:46,850
+like a valuable information about the company or
+
+106
+00:07:46,850 --> 00:07:50,490
+about the pricing of the stock، يعني بتساعدنا ان
+
+107
+00:07:50,490 --> 00:07:54,310
+احنا نعرف قد ايش الأسعار، يعني مثلا لو احنا اجينا
+
+108
+00:07:54,310 --> 00:07:58,350
+بدنا نسوق منتج في السوق وشوفنا ان الناس they are
+
+109
+00:07:58,350 --> 00:08:02,100
+not interested، فاحنا بنحاول نزل السعر، لكن لما شوفنا
+
+110
+00:08:02,100 --> 00:08:04,900
+الناس are interested فبنحاول احنا نعمل the .. to
+
+111
+00:08:04,900 --> 00:08:08,160
+push the price up، بنحاول نرفع السعر لهفو، فهي
+
+112
+00:08:08,160 --> 00:08:11,060
+this is important .. this process is important for
+
+113
+00:08:11,060 --> 00:08:13,840
+the investment bank to determine the actual price
+
+114
+00:08:13,840 --> 00:08:18,280
+of the underlying stock، بتساعدهم حتى يعرفوا السعر
+
+115
+00:08:18,280 --> 00:08:25,760
+الحقيقي لل investors تبعتهم، generally speaking from
+
+116
+00:08:25,760 --> 00:08:29,820
+the short-term investment point of view، من وجهة نظر
+
+117
+00:08:29,820 --> 00:08:34,960
+استثمار قصيرة الأجل، investors prefer the IPO to
+
+118
+00:08:34,960 --> 00:08:38,400
+invest just only for one day، يعني من وجهة نظر استثمار
+
+119
+00:08:38,400 --> 00:08:43,480
+قصيرة الأجل، المستثمرين بيفضلوا الاستثمار بال IPO لمدة
+
+120
+00:08:43,480 --> 00:08:48,880
+يوم واحد، انتبهوا يعني لو انت لو احنا بين خيارين to
+
+121
+00:08:48,880 --> 00:08:53,920
+invest in IPO، إيش يعني IPO؟ يعني شركة جديدة، or to
+
+122
+00:08:53,920 --> 00:08:57,400
+invest in non-IPO
+
+123
+00:09:00,930 --> 00:09:03,750
+So we have two options, to invest in IPO, initial
+
+124
+00:09:03,750 --> 00:09:08,410
+public offerings or to invest in non-IPO, if your
+
+125
+00:09:08,410 --> 00:09:12,750
+time frame is long or your time horizon، يعني إذا
+
+126
+00:09:12,750 --> 00:09:15,570
+كانت الفترة الزمنية للاستثمار short-time investors
+
+127
+00:09:15,570 --> 00:09:21,990
+prefer to invest in the IBO إذا كان هو .. إذا كان
+
+128
+00:09:21,990 --> 00:09:26,420
+فترة .. بدهم يستثمروا شهرين and particularly one
+
+129
+00:09:26,420 --> 00:09:30,780
+day ليوم واحد so they prefer to invest in IBO
+
+130
+00:09:30,780 --> 00:09:35,400
+initial public offerings why because the
+
+131
+00:09:35,400 --> 00:09:38,580
+investment bank the investment bank بنك الاستثمار
+
+132
+00:09:38,580 --> 00:09:44,220
+it tries to make the the price of underwriting lower
+
+133
+00:09:44,220 --> 00:09:49,010
+than the expected price. Okay يعني البنوك الاستثمار
+
+134
+00:09:49,010 --> 00:09:53,110
+عادة بتعمل سعر الـ IPO أقل من سعر المتوقع من
+
+135
+00:09:53,110 --> 00:09:56,130
+المستثمرين. So it's like encouraging them to invest
+
+136
+00:09:56,130 --> 00:10:01,410
+in this company. Once the underlying clause or the
+
+137
+00:10:01,410 --> 00:10:05,350
+underwriting clause, the price is jump. مجرد ما
+
+138
+00:10:05,350 --> 00:10:09,290
+يخلصوا الـ underwriting،  مكون الـ price عمل jumping
+
+139
+00:10:09,290 --> 00:10:15,680
+مثال كبير لشركة Linux، شركة Linux في شركة يعني عملوا
+
+140
+00:10:15,680 --> 00:10:20,480
+عليها دراسة في عملة IBO. فالـ price الـ expected
+
+141
+00:10:20,480 --> 00:10:27,320
+price was I think 30$ but it jumped to more than
+
+142
+00:10:27,320 --> 00:10:33,320
+200 something or 289. Look just only on one day
+
+143
+00:10:33,320 --> 00:10:36,580
+بيوم واحد، الـ investors they buy this or they 
+
+144
+00:10:36,580 --> 00:10:41,120
+bought this at 30. في نهاية هذا اليوم، قمت بالتسجيل
+
+145
+00:10:41,120 --> 00:10:49,680
+إلى 289، ميكين أكثر من 600% كرم عادية، عملين أكثر
+
+146
+00:10:49,680 --> 00:10:53,860
+من ستمية في المئة، فهذا استثمار جيد في الـ IBO فقط
+
+147
+00:10:53,860 --> 00:10:57,920
+لأي يوم، ليوم واحد بس، يستثمرون. أنا أتكلم عن
+
+148
+00:10:57,920 --> 00:11:04,140
+الـShort Term، من الانتقال اللواني، الـNon-IBO
+
+149
+00:11:04,140 --> 00:11:11,470
+أفضل من الـIBO because the IBO is representing a
+
+150
+00:11:11,470 --> 00:11:14,930
+newly company or a newly established company which
+
+151
+00:11:14,930 --> 00:11:19,690
+may be subject of risk. عادة الشركات الجديدة بتكون
+
+152
+00:11:19,690 --> 00:11:21,850
+فيها risk عالي أكثر من الشركات القديمة
+
+153
+00:11:25,210 --> 00:11:28,970
+إذا كنت تفكر في الاستثمار في زمن طويل، فمن المفضل
+
+154
+00:11:28,970 --> 00:11:35,470
+أن تستثمر في شركات غير IPO وليس شركات IPO. لكن
+
+155
+00:11:35,470 --> 00:11:39,130
+إذا كنت تفكر في الاستثمار في زمن قصير، فمن المفضل
+
+156
+00:11:39,130 --> 00:11:44,390
+أن تستثمر في IPO وليس شركة غير IPO. أعتقد أن هذا
+
+157
+00:11:44,390 --> 00:11:44,950
+صحيح.
+
+158
+00:11:48,550 --> 00:11:56,610
+ترجمت؟ في المدى القصير المستثمرين بيفضله الـ IBO، في
+
+159
+00:11:56,610 --> 00:12:01,830
+المدى البعيد بيفضله الـ non IBO. ليش؟ في المدى
+
+160
+00:12:01,830 --> 00:12:06,790
+القصير الـ investment bank بنك الاستثمار بعمل السعر
+
+161
+00:12:06,790 --> 00:12:14,000
+الإصدار أقل من السعر المتوقع. بالمدى البعيد بيكون
+
+162
+00:12:14,000 --> 00:12:19,280
+فيه سعر تعديل للسعر، والشركة الجديدة بتكون إلها
+
+163
+00:12:19,280 --> 00:12:23,400
+مخاطر أكثر من الشركة القديمة أو الشركة اللي أصلا
+
+164
+00:12:23,400 --> 00:12:26,340
+متأثرة القديمة. لو طلعنا إحنا على الـ chart هن
+
+165
+00:12:26,340 --> 00:12:32,540
+بتشوفوا عندنا الـ blue والـ black، الأزرق والـ .. الـ
+
+166
+00:12:32,540 --> 00:12:36,900
+non issuers يعني الـ non IPO. شوفوا الـ black واضح
+
+167
+00:12:36,900 --> 00:12:42,040
+أنه in the long term is less than the non IPO and
+
+168
+00:12:42,040 --> 00:12:42,420
+clear
+
+169
+00:12:46,140 --> 00:12:54,380
+Okay, now how securities are traded. الـ non IPO
+
+170
+00:12:54,380 --> 00:12:59,440
+شركات لم تصدر، شركات قديمة يعني لم تصدر أسهم جديدة
+
+171
+00:12:59,440 --> 00:13:07,140
+من خفض وبعدين بترتفع. هي بالـ IPO هو هي الـ IPO الـ
+
+172
+00:13:07,140 --> 00:13:11,780
+non IPO شركة قديمة يعني أصلا خلاص هي مش بالـ
+
+173
+00:13:11,780 --> 00:13:13,020
+secondary market
+
+174
+00:13:16,190 --> 00:13:20,790
+المقصود هنا بالـ .. بالاستثمار قصير الأجل إنه لاحظوا
+
+175
+00:13:20,790 --> 00:13:25,330
+أنه خلال يوم واحد الـ investors they prefer to
+
+176
+00:13:25,330 --> 00:13:28,750
+invest just only one day في الـ IBO. بعدين بيصير
+
+177
+00:13:28,750 --> 00:13:34,290
+jumping بالـ price. أيش في عندك سؤال هنا؟ private
+
+178
+00:13:34,290 --> 00:13:38,770
+placements. private placements معايا بنات هنا؟
+
+179
+00:13:38,770 --> 00:13:44,110
+private placements اللي هو بيسموه اكتتاب خاص. هذا
+
+180
+00:13:44,110 --> 00:13:47,070
+الاكتتاب الخاص is only for a particular investors
+
+181
+00:13:47,070 --> 00:13:51,890
+and particular institutions. اه يعني الشركة بتصدر
+
+182
+00:13:51,890 --> 00:13:59,510
+أسهم أو سندات لأشخاص خاصة بناس معينين. okay ومين هدول
+
+183
+00:13:59,510 --> 00:14:04,130
+الناس؟ عادة إلهم سمعة في الشركة، عندهم خبرة في
+
+184
+00:14:04,130 --> 00:14:07,150
+الاستثمارات. okay so it makes prestigious position
+
+185
+00:14:07,150 --> 00:14:13,410
+for the company. وكمان لإنه these shares are not
+
+186
+00:14:13,410 --> 00:14:16,250
+traded in the secondary markets. This is first, the
+
+187
+00:14:16,250 --> 00:14:20,510
+second thing is it is cheaper than the public the
+
+188
+00:14:20,510 --> 00:14:22,910
+initial public offerings. أرخص because the
+
+189
+00:14:22,910 --> 00:14:27,910
+commission of the investment bank is less than the
+
+190
+00:14:27,910 --> 00:14:30,890
+commission in the case of initial public offerings.
+
+191
+00:14:30,890 --> 00:14:40,590
+Okay, types of markets. How securities are traded. كيف
+
+192
+00:14:40,590 --> 00:14:44,450
+بتتم البيع والشراء في الأسواق المالية and be
+
+193
+00:14:44,450 --> 00:14:48,730
+careful in here and listen to me. انتبهوا عليّ و
+
+194
+00:14:48,730 --> 00:14:53,970
+افتحوا بالكم. Types of markets, how securities are
+
+195
+00:14:53,970 --> 00:14:57,270
+traded. It depends on the types of markets. كيف يتم
+
+196
+00:14:57,270 --> 00:15:00,650
+الاتجار والتعامل بالأسواق المالية؟ يعني هلأ بنشتري
+
+197
+00:15:00,650 --> 00:15:03,990
+مثلاً commercial paper، بنشتري treasury bills، بنشتري
+
+198
+00:15:03,990 --> 00:15:07,770
+bonds، بنشتري stocks. Any securities it depends on
+
+199
+00:15:07,770 --> 00:15:11,570
+the type of markets. حسب نوع السوق. The first type
+
+200
+00:15:11,570 --> 00:15:15,450
+of market is direct cash. Direct cash is not applied
+
+201
+00:15:15,450 --> 00:15:17,870
+in the financial markets. مش مطبقة في الـ financial
+
+202
+00:15:17,870 --> 00:15:20,670
+markets. It is very rare to apply in the financial
+
+203
+00:15:20,670 --> 00:15:25,150
+markets. أكثر يعني مش موجودة يعني نادرة جداً تتطبق
+
+204
+00:15:25,150 --> 00:15:29,570
+في الأسواق المالية. What it means direct cash؟ إيش
+
+205
+00:15:29,570 --> 00:15:32,150
+معناها؟ إنه إحنا نبحث بحث مباشر. كيف يعني؟ لو إحنا
+
+206
+00:15:32,150 --> 00:15:35,510
+بدنا نشتري مثلاً غسالة ولا تلاجة، بنروح نلف على
+
+207
+00:15:35,510 --> 00:15:39,290
+البلد وندور على التلاجة ونشوف. There is no need
+
+208
+00:15:39,290 --> 00:15:42,870
+to use intermediate institutions. ما فيش حاجة إنه
+
+209
+00:15:42,870 --> 00:15:46,710
+إحنا ندور على وسيط. بنروح على البلد وبنروح بنشوف وين
+
+210
+00:15:46,710 --> 00:15:50,630
+بيعين التلاجات أو الغسالات and we find this. Okay.
+
+211
+00:15:50,630 --> 00:15:54,130
+This is known as direct search. Buyers and sellers
+
+212
+00:15:54,130 --> 00:15:58,020
+seek each other. التانين بيدوروا على بعض. Okay, the
+
+213
+00:15:58,020 --> 00:16:02,280
+second one which is more common in the financial
+
+214
+00:16:02,280 --> 00:16:04,680
+markets. هذه مطبقة كثير في الـ .. في الـ financial
+
+215
+00:16:04,680 --> 00:16:08,280
+market which is known as brokers markets. Brokers
+
+216
+00:16:08,280 --> 00:16:14,680
+markets. Brokers it means سمسار يعني أسواق السماسرة
+
+217
+00:16:14,680 --> 00:16:21,140
+what it means brokers markets? It means the .. the
+
+218
+00:16:21,140 --> 00:16:25,760
+broker is mediate between the buyers and the
+
+219
+00:16:25,760 --> 00:16:29,290
+sellers. يعني الـ broker هو متوسط بين الـ buyers and
+
+220
+00:16:29,290 --> 00:16:32,750
+sellers. Okay, for instance, this guy wants to buy
+
+221
+00:16:32,750 --> 00:16:37,810
+IBM, so the broker should locate for one to sell
+
+222
+00:16:37,810 --> 00:16:43,590
+the IBM. Okay, يعني الـ .. إذا واحد بده يشتري الـ IBM
+
+223
+00:16:43,590 --> 00:16:46,930
+فهو راح يدور على واحد يبيع الـ IBM. So it's like
+
+224
+00:16:46,930 --> 00:16:51,220
+matching between the buyers and the sellers. اه هو
+
+225
+00:16:51,220 --> 00:16:54,900
+دور وشغل عادي، يعني مثلاً زي مثلاً سمسارة
+
+226
+00:16:54,900 --> 00:16:58,280
+الأراضي، سمسار الأراضي بيروح مثلاً واحد بيشتري قطعة
+
+227
+00:16:58,280 --> 00:17:03,880
+أرض، بيروح بيدور على واحد بيبيع الأرض. بقـ the ..
+
+228
+00:17:03,880 --> 00:17:05,840
+the main difference between the real estate
+
+229
+00:17:05,840 --> 00:17:09,600
+broker, real estate أن هو تجار العقارات and the
+
+230
+00:17:09,600 --> 00:17:12,720
+financial market is little bit different because
+
+231
+00:17:12,720 --> 00:17:17,700
+in the broker market there is no face to face. Most
+
+232
+00:17:17,700 --> 00:17:23,520
+of the deals is exercised by using computer system.
+
+233
+00:17:23,520 --> 00:17:26,560
+يعني there is no need to meet the buyers and the
+
+234
+00:17:26,560 --> 00:17:29,920
+sellers in the same time. They can meet up. ممكن هم
+
+235
+00:17:29,920 --> 00:17:33,060
+يلتقوا within the computer system. ممكن هم يلتقوا
+
+236
+00:17:33,060 --> 00:17:36,900
+عبر الـ computer system. يعني مثلاً إنه هذا بيجي بده
+
+237
+00:17:36,900 --> 00:17:40,960
+يشتري. مش شرط إنه أنا فعلاً اللي يكون واحد موجود بده
+
+238
+00:17:40,960 --> 00:17:43,560
+يبيع. ممكن هذا الشخص اللي موجود بده يبيع موجود عند
+
+239
+00:17:43,560 --> 00:17:47,220
+dealer آخر. وبالتالي الـ computer system is locating
+
+240
+00:17:47,220 --> 00:17:50,340
+هو الـ computer system هيدور لحاله without the
+
+241
+00:17:50,340 --> 00:17:54,080
+human intervention. بدون ما يدخل الإنسان and locate
+
+242
+00:17:54,080 --> 00:17:58,680
+who are the buyers and who are the sellers. مش
+
+243
+00:17:58,680 --> 00:18:02,140
+هيدخل الإنسان ويروح يدور على الكلام هذا. الـ
+
+244
+00:18:02,140 --> 00:18:03,820
+computer can do it.
+
+245
+00:18:06,840 --> 00:18:11,060
+Similar to like this. Okay، عادة الـ buyer هم إيش
+
+246
+00:18:11,060 --> 00:18:13,240
+بيسووا؟ بيحطوا الأسعار تبعتهم، والـ seller بيحطوا
+
+247
+00:18:13,240 --> 00:18:16,080
+الأسعار تبعتهم and we match between them. That's it.
+
+248
+00:18:16,080 --> 00:18:20,080
+Okay, this
+
+249
+00:18:20,080 --> 00:18:22,620
+is broker market. The third market is known as the
+
+250
+00:18:22,620 --> 00:18:26,960
+dealer markets. Dealer markets. What is the
+
+251
+00:18:26,960 --> 00:18:28,700
+difference between dealer market and broker 
+
+252
+00:18:28,700 --> 00:18:34,580
+markets this difference is very tiny يعني tiny يعني 
+
+253
+00:18:34,580 --> 00:18:40,180
+بسيط يعني الفرق بين ال broker و بين ال dealer is
+
+254
+00:18:40,180 --> 00:18:43,660
+very tiny and some people they get confused from
+
+255
+00:18:43,660 --> 00:18:47,220
+the understanding of the broker market and the
+
+256
+00:18:47,220 --> 00:18:49,640
+dealer market and sometimes they mix up between
+
+257
+00:18:49,640 --> 00:18:53,700
+them وبعض الحالات بيكونوا اتدخلوا في ال broker market
+
+258
+00:18:53,700 --> 00:18:57,160
+و في ال dealer market look look at this example okay
+
+259
+00:19:04,310 --> 00:19:10,190
+انظر إلى هذا المثال هنا حسنا، لذا لدينا مصادق هنا
+
+260
+00:19:10,190 --> 00:19:17,610
+ومصادق هنا حسنا؟
+
+261
+00:19:17,610 --> 00:19:24,150
+لذا مصادق ومصادق هناك رجل أساسي مع رجل كبير يعمل
+
+262
+00:19:24,150 --> 00:19:29,410
+.. هذا الرجل الأساسي يعمل كشركة مصادق فهذه اليد
+
+263
+00:19:29,410 --> 00:19:35,650
+هنا وهذه اليد هنا، لذلك أخذه من هنا، لذلك هذا الشخص
+
+264
+00:19:35,650 --> 00:19:42,690
+يشتري و هذا الشخص يبيع هذا هو نوع من نظام
+
+265
+00:19:42,690 --> 00:19:51,490
+البروكورات لكن في محافظات الشركات ليس هناك حاجة
+
+266
+00:19:51,490 --> 00:19:56,910
+لكي تقارن بين المشتركين و المشتركين إذا على سبيل
+
+267
+00:19:56,910 --> 00:19:58,030
+المثال فقط لدينا مشترك
+
+268
+00:20:01,080 --> 00:20:04,340
+So what is the dealer should do in this case? The
+
+269
+00:20:04,340 --> 00:20:10,220
+dealer has inventory What it means inventory? It
+
+270
+00:20:10,220 --> 00:20:17,840
+means the dealer here buying to himself from the
+
+271
+00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:23,860
+financial market and when someone asking to .. to
+
+272
+00:20:23,860 --> 00:20:28,300
+sell or to buy he or she can sell and buy from his
+
+273
+00:20:28,300 --> 00:20:31,880
+or her inventory ال inventory .. أه هذا inventory
+
+274
+00:20:31,880 --> 00:20:36,080
+مخزون يعني مثلا أنه مافيش حاجة يروح ي .. يدور ع
+
+275
+00:20:36,080 --> 00:20:40,300
+باق و مشتري في الحالة الأولى أنه ال .. ال .. ال
+
+276
+00:20:40,300 --> 00:20:44,340
+broker لازم يوجد ال .. يوجد الباق و المشتري طب إذا
+
+277
+00:20:44,340 --> 00:20:50,540
+كان just only we have one side شو نسوي؟ اه في نوع
+
+278
+00:20:50,540 --> 00:20:54,460
+آخر بيسميه ال dealer ال dealer هو فقط مسموح له انه
+
+279
+00:20:54,460 --> 00:20:59,040
+يشتري لحسابه الخاص يعني مثلا يكون عنده يشتري IBM
+
+280
+00:20:59,040 --> 00:21:02,300
+يشتري general motors okay زي ما انتوا شايفين
+
+281
+00:21:02,300 --> 00:21:06,140
+يشتريوا ياهو و يخليهم عنده لما بيجي واحد بده ياهو
+
+282
+00:21:06,140 --> 00:21:12,020
+بيبيعه لو واحد بده يشتري يعني هذا بده يشتري ياهو
+
+283
+00:21:12,020 --> 00:21:15,640
+فهو بيبيعه لو واحد بده يبيعه بيشتري منه بيشتري منه
+
+284
+00:21:15,640 --> 00:21:20,960
+لحسابه الشخصي بدون ما يبحث عن طرف آخر why this
+
+285
+00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:27,360
+and this is regulated by the ACE the exchange
+
+286
+00:21:27,360 --> 00:21:34,120
+commission the ACE ممنوع ال ال ال ال broker ممنوع
+
+287
+00:21:34,120 --> 00:21:39,060
+يشتري و يبيع لحسابه لازم to find out the two sides
+
+288
+00:21:39,060 --> 00:21:42,240
+of .. of the transaction لازم usually the two
+
+289
+00:21:42,240 --> 00:21:43,980
+sides of the transaction the buyers and the
+
+290
+00:21:43,980 --> 00:21:47,260
+sellers but in the .. in the dealer system there
+
+291
+00:21:47,260 --> 00:21:51,580
+is no need to have two sides we can do it without
+
+292
+00:21:51,580 --> 00:21:56,240
+two sides just only one side how we can do this if
+
+293
+00:21:56,240 --> 00:21:59,640
+the .. if the dealer has inventory إذا كان عنده
+
+294
+00:21:59,640 --> 00:22:03,950
+مخزون Okay مثلا اجى هذا بده يشتري Yahoo فبيبيعوا ال
+
+295
+00:22:03,950 --> 00:22:07,010
+Yahoo من مخزونه لو اجوا ناس كتير يشتروا Yahoo
+
+296
+00:22:07,010 --> 00:22:11,250
+شوفوا انتمهوا للمثال اجوا ال Yahoo تبعه اتطلعوا
+
+297
+00:22:11,250 --> 00:22:16,030
+على المنطقة هاي لنفترض انه هذه المنطقة ل Yahoo عدد
+
+298
+00:22:16,030 --> 00:22:22,390
+الأسهم اللي هو عنده في المخزون لشركة Yahoo هلأ هال
+
+299
+00:22:22,390 --> 00:22:28,440
+طبعا اخدوا المستثمرين اشتروا ال Yahoo okay اشتروا
+
+300
+00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:34,500
+الأخر نهار أو يعني في أثناء العمليات إذا انخفض عدد
+
+301
+00:22:34,500 --> 00:22:37,540
+الأسهم الموجودة عنده لنفترض أنه صارت هالمنطقة هذه
+
+302
+00:22:37,540 --> 00:22:46,280
+okay فإيش راح يقرر هو؟ راح يقرر أنه يزيد .. يشتري
+
+303
+00:22:46,280 --> 00:22:49,960
+طب من وين بيروح بيشتري؟ هلأ بنحكيلكم من وين بدي
+
+304
+00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:58,610
+أشتري okay بيروح بيشتري من .. لأ هذا ال real
+
+305
+00:22:58,610 --> 00:23:01,290
+financial markets هذا ال financial market الحقيقي
+
+306
+00:23:01,290 --> 00:23:04,630
+اللي هو New York Stock Exchange in the New York
+
+307
+00:23:04,630 --> 00:23:10,190
+Stock Exchange there is some people known as
+
+308
+00:23:10,190 --> 00:23:15,530
+specialists specialists
+
+309
+00:23:15,530 --> 00:23:20,630
+ايش اسمهم متخصصين specialists for instance he
+
+310
+00:23:20,630 --> 00:23:25,870
+needs to buy Yahoo he should go to the .. to the
+
+311
+00:23:25,870 --> 00:23:28,890
+specialist what it means specialist ايش معناه
+
+312
+00:23:28,890 --> 00:23:32,510
+specialist هذا specialist اللي هو سوق المتخصصين
+
+313
+00:23:32,510 --> 00:23:37,150
+everyone is specialized in a particular stocks
+
+314
+00:23:37,150 --> 00:23:42,690
+يعني كل واحد من هدول اللي شايفينهم هذا بيسموهم
+
+315
+00:23:42,690 --> 00:23:47,610
+seat هذا مقعد اسمها seat كل واحد اللي له مقعد في
+
+316
+00:23:47,610 --> 00:23:53,090
+السوق is specialized in a particular stocks مثلا
+
+317
+00:23:53,090 --> 00:23:56,890
+هذا متخصص ب IBM مثلا و جينا ل ال motors هذا متخصص
+
+318
+00:23:56,890 --> 00:24:01,330
+ب Yahoo هذا متخصص مثلا ب Google هذا .. و هكذا إذا
+
+319
+00:24:01,330 --> 00:24:04,110
+ما بدو يشتري .. فلا لا إذا هاد بدو يشتري ل مين لازم
+
+320
+00:24:04,110 --> 00:24:07,890
+يروح ل مين ل هذا لازم يروح ل .. ل هاد لازم يروح ل
+
+321
+00:24:07,890 --> 00:24:15,510
+اللي متخصص في Yahoo لأ اشتري بأعلى أقل مش بأعلى
+
+322
+00:24:15,510 --> 00:24:21,320
+خلينا نحكي أيوة حسب ال specialists هان .. ال
+
+323
+00:24:21,320 --> 00:24:25,520
+specialists هان طبعا هذا موجود .. هذا dealer موجود
+
+324
+00:24:25,520 --> 00:24:27,940
+في ال united states في dealer آخر موجود في .. في
+
+325
+00:24:27,940 --> 00:24:32,040
+دبي، dealer آخر موجود في توكيو فال dealers كلهم
+
+326
+00:24:32,040 --> 00:24:38,640
+بتصلوا فهذا عشان يشرلوا يهو فهو بقدر .. هو بحدد
+
+327
+00:24:38,640 --> 00:24:41,980
+السعر هدول ال specialists هم اللي بيحددوا السعر و
+
+328
+00:24:41,980 --> 00:24:44,380
+هدول بيسموهم ال market makers هدول نوع من أنواع ال
+
+329
+00:24:44,380 --> 00:24:47,380
+market makers هم اللي بيحددوا السوق لإن هدول ال
+
+330
+00:24:47,380 --> 00:24:51,340
+big people يعني they know everything هدول واكفين
+
+331
+00:24:51,340 --> 00:24:55,300
+فوق و بتطلع كل واحد بالاخير كل العالم بيجي عندهم
+
+332
+00:24:55,300 --> 00:25:01,660
+okay طبعا عشان يصيروا specialists عشان يصيروا
+
+333
+00:25:01,660 --> 00:25:05,360
+specialists متخصصين they have to have a seat
+
+334
+00:25:05,360 --> 00:25:09,760
+inside the financial market لازم يكون عندهم seat
+
+335
+00:25:09,760 --> 00:25:16,060
+مقعد but this seat is worth more
+
+336
+00:25:16,060 --> 00:25:20,040
+than four million dollar هذا المقعد عشان يكون عندنا
+
+337
+00:25:20,040 --> 00:25:25,240
+مقعد نشتري مقعد لازم ندفع four million dollar a
+
+338
+00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:33,720
+year it depends on the auction حسب المزاد طبعا
+
+339
+00:25:33,720 --> 00:25:38,520
+المقعد بسنة أظن 2008 كان سعره أربعة مليون دولار
+
+340
+00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:42,970
+okay 4 مليون دولار سعر المقعد الواحد في ال
+
+341
+00:25:42,970 --> 00:25:46,490
+financial market what is the benefits of having a
+
+342
+00:25:46,490 --> 00:25:49,610
+seat in the financial market؟ شو ال .. شو الفائدة؟
+
+343
+00:25:49,610 --> 00:25:53,630
+الفائدة أنه for each transaction you earn
+
+344
+00:25:53,630 --> 00:25:56,510
+commission في كل transaction، في كل buy and sell
+
+345
+00:25:56,510 --> 00:26:00,470
+بناخد .. بناخد عمولة okay هذا بالنسبة لل
+
+346
+00:26:00,470 --> 00:26:06,670
+specialist خلينا to sum up أن .. أن .. يعني أن ..
+
+347
+00:26:06,670 --> 00:26:10,490
+to sum up specialist هو اللي بخد المشارع؟ اهأه ال
+
+348
+00:26:10,490 --> 00:26:13,110
+specialists بياخدوا و ال .. و ال .. هدول بياخدوا
+
+349
+00:26:13,110 --> 00:26:17,650
+ال commission ال .. ال dealer و ال brokers to sum
+
+350
+00:26:17,650 --> 00:26:21,890
+up يعني نلخص اللي احنا حكيناها إنه احنا في ال
+
+351
+00:26:21,890 --> 00:26:24,630
+financial market في عندنا اللي هو direct search
+
+352
+00:26:24,630 --> 00:26:27,470
+حكيناها و هذا it is very rare in the financial
+
+353
+00:26:27,470 --> 00:26:31,110
+market we have the broker .. the broker they have
+
+354
+00:26:31,110 --> 00:26:34,130
+to have buyers and sellers and we have the dealers
+
+355
+00:26:34,130 --> 00:26:37,130
+.. the dealers they buy and sell from their
+
+356
+00:26:37,130 --> 00:26:40,800
+inventory وهم بيشتغلوا داخل ال financial markets
+
+357
+00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:47,480
+وهم بيشتغلوا داخل ال financial markets وهم
+
+358
+00:26:47,480 --> 00:26:51,300
+بيشتغلوا داخل ال financial markets وهم بيشتغلوا
+
+359
+00:26:51,300 --> 00:26:57,840
+داخل ال financial markets وهم
+
+360
+00:26:57,840 --> 00:26:58,040
+بيشتغلوا داخل ال financial markets وهم بيشتغلوا
+
+361
+00:26:58,040 --> 00:26:58,100
+markets وهم بيشتغلوا داخل ال financial markets وهم
+
+362
+00:26:58,100 --> 00:26:59,860
+markets وهم بيشتغلوا داخل ال financial markets وهم
+
+363
+00:26:59,860 --> 00:27:03,700
+بيشتغلوا داخل ال
+
+364
+00:27:10,170 --> 00:27:19,150
+الفرق بين ال dealer .. لأ الفرق بين ال .. لأ
+
+365
+00:27:19,150 --> 00:27:25,490
+بالظبط هذا ال broker ال dealer هو يعني اعطيكي مثال
+
+366
+00:27:25,490 --> 00:27:30,170
+حكينا سمسار الأراضي هو بشبه ال broker السمسار لكن
+
+367
+00:27:30,170 --> 00:27:34,660
+في تاجر أراضي هو بيشيل الحساب و بيجي الناس بدهم
+
+368
+00:27:34,660 --> 00:27:37,380
+يشتريوا و يبيعوا فهو بيعمل توفيق بناء عليه and this
+
+369
+00:27:37,380 --> 00:27:40,480
+doesn't mean أنه كمان بيعملش buying and selling
+
+370
+00:27:40,480 --> 00:27:43,260
+between the .. doesn't match between buyer and
+
+371
+00:27:43,260 --> 00:27:45,920
+seller لأنه مرات ممكن التاجر الأراضي مثلا إيجاله
+
+372
+00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:51,400
+واحد يقول والله أنا بدي قطعة أرض في الشجعية مثلا
+
+373
+00:27:51,400 --> 00:27:55,100
+فهو ماعندهوش فهو يقول okay أنا بدبرلك ففي الحالة
+
+374
+00:27:55,100 --> 00:28:00,100
+هذه he works as a broker هو اشتغل as a broker يعني
+
+375
+00:28:00,100 --> 00:28:03,000
+ال dealer مسموح له يشتغل broker and dealer in the 
+
+376
+00:28:03,000 --> 00:28:06,960
+same time لكن ال broker just only broker بس
+
+377
+00:28:06,960 --> 00:28:14,660
+مسموح له يعمل broker okay فهي ال ..
+
+378
+00:28:14,660 --> 00:28:17,380
+طبعا تنسوش ال specialist market في عندنا ال
+
+379
+00:28:17,380 --> 00:28:23,300
+auction market ال auction market يعني سوق المزادات
+
+380
+00:28:23,300 --> 00:28:28,120
+مثلا هي stock مثلا IBM بيعملوا سعر افتتاح بيقولوا
+
+381
+00:28:28,120 --> 00:28:31,760
+مثلا سبعة عشر دولار بيصير الكل يزيد سبعة عشر ونص
+
+382
+00:28:31,760 --> 00:28:35,460
+سبعة عشر وهكذا this is physical هذا اللي أنا عملته
+
+383
+00:28:35,460 --> 00:28:39,140
+هلأ physical nowadays there is no need for
+
+384
+00:28:39,140 --> 00:28:42,900
+physical meeting between the dealers مافيش حاجة
+
+385
+00:28:42,900 --> 00:28:47,520
+أنه يلتقوا جسديا physically okay so they can do
+
+386
+00:28:47,520 --> 00:28:51,740
+this by using computer system فهمتوا أيش ال
+
+387
+00:28:51,740 --> 00:28:54,680
+auction market يعني أسواق المزادات okay
+
+388
+00:28:59,310 --> 00:29:03,790
+Okay the bid and ask price ال .. ال broker و ال
+
+389
+00:29:03,790 --> 00:29:08,170
+dealer من وين دربحوا هلأ تشوفوا كيف الاستفادة تبع
+
+390
+00:29:08,170 --> 00:29:21,750
+ال broker و ال dealer في
+
+391
+00:29:21,750 --> 00:29:25,330
+السوق المالي الأسعار تعرض بطريقة ال bid و ال ask
+
+392
+00:29:25,330 --> 00:29:32,570
+okay in the financial market the .. the dealer use
+
+393
+00:29:32,570 --> 00:29:37,530
+the bid and ask pricing system هاي ال dealer okay
+
+394
+00:29:37,530 --> 00:29:42,330
+suggest this bid and ask what it means bid and ask
+
+395
+00:29:42,330 --> 00:29:46,670
+for instance if we have a particular company like
+
+396
+00:29:46,670 --> 00:29:53,290
+this the .. the dealer تبقوا للأسعار ask bid and
+
+397
+00:29:53,290 --> 00:29:58,060
+ask تطلعوا ال ask زمان أعلى من ال bid ال ask أعلى
+
+398
+00:29:58,060 --> 00:30:03,400
+من البيت طيب هلأ في أنا طرفين في طرف ال investor
+
+399
+00:30:03,400 --> 00:30:06,780
+المستثمر اللي بيشتري و طرف ال dealer هذا ال dealer
+
+400
+00:30:06,780 --> 00:30:12,860
+هو بعرض السعر لـ investor investor buy at this
+
+401
+00:30:12,860 --> 00:30:17,160
+price then
+
+402
+00:30:17,160 --> 00:30:21,040
+if the investor buy at this price it means the
+
+403
+00:30:21,040 --> 00:30:22,660
+dealer sell at this price
+
+404
+00:30:25,850 --> 00:30:30,250
+وإذا كان المستخدم يبيع في هذا السعر، فالشركة تشتري
+
+405
+00:30:30,250 --> 00:30:34,830
+في هذا السعر، حسنا؟
+
+406
+00:30:34,830 --> 00:30:41,010
+فالشركة تشتري في الـ 19.20 و تبيع في الـ 20،
+
+407
+00:30:41,010 --> 00:30:50,630
+فالنسبة للشركة هي حوالي 80، هذه هي النسبة للشركة،
+
+408
+00:30:50,630 --> 00:30:56,860
+هذه النسبة معروفة كـ Spread spread يعني الفارق هذا
+
+409
+00:30:56,860 --> 00:31:02,260
+ال profit نسميه spread however for the investor
+
+410
+00:31:02,260 --> 00:31:07,460
+this is known as cost تكلفة
+
+411
+00:31:07,460 --> 00:31:13,300
+خليني أعطيكم مثال لو احنا روحنا ناخد سعر الدهب bid
+
+412
+00:31:13,300 --> 00:31:18,640
+and ask للدهب مثلا واحد و ثلاثين و واحد و ثلاثين
+
+413
+00:31:18,640 --> 00:31:24,260
+وأربعين okay like this طبعا الدهب اليام هي رخيص
+
+414
+00:31:26,740 --> 00:31:31,440
+comparing with the high price in the last one year
+
+415
+00:31:31,440 --> 00:31:35,320
+أنا بحكي مقارنة مع السنة اللي فاتت الدهب كتير في
+
+416
+00:31:35,320 --> 00:31:41,460
+.. نزل حوالي 200-300 نقطة okay فطلعوا على سعر
+
+417
+00:31:41,460 --> 00:31:46,880
+الدهب 31 gram و 31.40 مثلا فهلأ اللي هنعطيكوا مثال
+
+418
+00:31:46,880 --> 00:31:53,160
+لو رايحت ست راح تشتري دهب على أي سعر هتشتري؟ على
+
+419
+00:31:53,160 --> 00:31:58,050
+هذا أو لا على هذا السعر؟ أه تطلعوا buy investor buy
+
+420
+00:31:58,050 --> 00:32:03,470
+على واحد ثلاثين وأربعين طيب لو راحت اه احنا بنحكي
+
+421
+00:32:03,470 --> 00:32:07,050
+على investor okay هلأ ال investor اشترى واحد
+
+422
+00:32:07,050 --> 00:32:09,790
+ثلاثين وأربعين هلأ لو أجينا واحدة من هالبنات أخدت
+
+423
+00:32:09,790 --> 00:32:14,630
+ال gram الذهب و راحت بس تشرب خروب من عند ال
+
+424
+00:32:14,630 --> 00:32:19,570
+alcohol هذا و راحت بس شربت الخروب ورجعت حكت له
+
+425
+00:32:19,570 --> 00:32:24,670
+please أنا ما بدي إياها أنا بدي أبيعها فقداش حبيع هي
+
+426
+00:32:24,670 --> 00:32:29,410
+.. هيشتري منها أوها ثلاثين طب قداش خسرت؟ هذه تعتبر
+
+427
+00:32:29,410 --> 00:32:35,670
+cost تعتبر أيش؟ تعتبر cost طبعا بالنسبة للـ 40 هي
+
+428
+00:32:35,670 --> 00:32:40,930
+أيش؟ الربح لأنه هاي مش السوق المال financial
+
+429
+00:32:40,930 --> 00:32:43,970
+market is not for social services مش للخدمات
+
+430
+00:32:43,970 --> 00:32:47,350
+الاجتماعية مفتوحة طب قولولي والله العظيم أنا روحت
+
+431
+00:32:47,350 --> 00:32:50,890
+اشرب من عند الرجال بس خروب قول لي طب روح ما لهناش دخل
+
+432
+00:32:50,890 --> 00:32:54,110
+فيكي بس هذا السوق بتغير قاعد هو يقول لك السوق بتغير
+
+433
+00:32:54,110 --> 00:32:57,670
+يعني أيش .. اه ف you have to take your
+
+434
+00:32:57,670 --> 00:33:03,050
+responsibility اه هذه مسؤوليتك okay so this is the
+
+435
+00:33:03,050 --> 00:33:09,070
+bid and ask price نحكي على the types of order لما
+
+436
+00:33:09,070 --> 00:33:14,070
+احنا ندخل السوق المالي the financial markets we ..
+
+437
+00:33:14,070 --> 00:33:18,870
+we have to use the orders يعني مثلا أنتو بتروحوا
+
+438
+00:33:18,870 --> 00:33:23,570
+على ال .. على السوق بتاع فراساد بتكونوا بتشتريوا
+
+439
+00:33:23,570 --> 00:33:27,830
+بندر مثلا ما فيش order قداش ال kilo مثلا ال kilo
+
+440
+00:33:27,830 --> 00:33:31,450
+بتنين شكل تشتريه على طول ما فيش مشكلة لكن بال
+
+441
+00:33:31,450 --> 00:33:35,890
+financial market you have to know the orders that
+
+442
+00:33:35,890 --> 00:33:39,110
+applied in the financial market لازم نفهم ال
+
+443
+00:33:39,110 --> 00:33:42,490
+orders اللي مطبقة بال financial market في السوق
+
+444
+00:33:42,490 --> 00:33:46,430
+المالي في عندنا نوعين رئيسية من ال orders في عندنا
+
+445
+00:33:46,430 --> 00:33:54,000
+market order okay market order يعني أسعار السوق
+
+446
+00:33:54,000 --> 00:33:57,220
+الآن the current price now وفي عندنا price
+
+447
+00:33:57,220 --> 00:34:05,380
+contingent order اللي هو الأسعار فيما لو تحققت إذا
+
+448
+00:34:05,380 --> 00:34:10,100
+في عندنا أمرين الأمر الأول market order سعر السوق
+
+449
+00:34:10,100 --> 00:34:14,320
+احنا بنشتري ونبيع على المعروف في السوق السعر الآخر
+
+450
+00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:17,520
+بحدد ال investors بيعلن رغبته على البيع والشراء
+
+451
+00:34:17,520 --> 00:34:18,840
+عند أسعار هو بده إياها
+
+452
+00:34:21,420 --> 00:34:25,680
+خلينا نفهم المثال هاد أنتو طلعوا على المثال
+
+453
+00:34:25,680 --> 00:34:29,960
+هاد تبع الدهب، قداسة الدهب واحد و ثلاثين و واحد و
+
+454
+00:34:29,960 --> 00:34:33,520
+ثلاثين وأربعين، يعني لو هلا مثلا الست بدها تشتري،
+
+455
+00:34:33,520 --> 00:34:35,280
+بدها تشتري على واحد و ثلاثين وأربعين، هذا بيسموه
+
+456
+00:34:35,280 --> 00:34:41,560
+market order، سعر السوق طب .. هلأ الست هادي حكت ..
+
+457
+00:34:41,560 --> 00:34:44,440
+اتصلت في صحابيتها قالوا كيف حالك؟ كيف أنت؟ و لا
+
+458
+00:34:44,440 --> 00:34:46,900
+أنا بدي اشتري دهب تقوله اه في اخبار بتحكي إن الدهب
+
+459
+00:34:46,900 --> 00:34:52,860
+احتمال ينزل مثلا أشيل سمعة و هي أيش سمعة فحكت okay
+
+460
+00:34:52,860 --> 00:34:57,140
+خليني أحط order في السوق إذا ال price نزل اشتري
+
+461
+00:34:57,140 --> 00:35:02,980
+هذا أيش بيسمي contingent order فمثلا بيجيب نحكي
+
+462
+00:35:02,980 --> 00:35:07,140
+إذا ال price نزل لـ 30 buy
+
+463
+00:35:10,200 --> 00:35:15,680
+بنشتري طبعا هذه الأسعار ممكن تنزل وممكن ما تنزلش
+
+464
+00:35:15,680 --> 00:35:22,580
+ف the exercise of this price is subject to the
+
+465
+00:35:22,580 --> 00:35:27,860
+current price of the markets يعني التنفيذ من عدمه
+
+466
+00:35:27,860 --> 00:35:33,880
+هو حسب تحقق السعر الحالي يعني إذا كان السعر
+
+467
+00:35:33,880 --> 00:35:38,470
+الحالي وصل للثلاثين هيتم التنفيذ ما وصلش للثلاثين مش
+
+468
+00:35:38,470 --> 00:35:44,090
+هيتم التنفيذ okay طبعا هلأ لو كان مثلا هي كانت
+
+469
+00:35:44,090 --> 00:35:46,990
+بدها تشتري طب لو كانت بدها تبيع بدها السعر يطلع صح
+
+470
+00:35:46,990 --> 00:35:51,770
+فلو كانت بدها تبيع بتقول okay اتصلت على صاحبيتها
+
+471
+00:35:51,770 --> 00:35:54,930
+كمان مرة بعد ما هيشترت فحكت لها احتمال الأسعار
+
+472
+00:35:54,930 --> 00:36:00,090
+تطلع لأن في مثلا معلومات بتحكي هيك الكلب ت price 31
+
+473
+00:36:00,090 --> 00:36:04,890
+و 41 فهي لما بدأت فيه تبيع على 31 فتحط order في
+
+474
+00:36:04,890 --> 00:36:13,450
+السوق sell بيع مثلا على 32 عشان تربح دولار أو
+
+475
+00:36:13,450 --> 00:36:19,590
+دولار في كل جرام فممكن السعر يصل وممكن ما يصلش هاي
+
+476
+00:36:19,590 --> 00:36:25,230
+معناها ال contingent price تبقينا هيك وإن شاء الله
+
+477
+00:36:25,230 --> 00:36:27,410
+اللقاء الجاي هينكمل
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/v6IUQRHhRTw_postprocess.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/v6IUQRHhRTw_postprocess.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..24ec448765e448974cd924e1e53cc3b6cf9de918
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/v6IUQRHhRTw_postprocess.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1908 @@
+1
+00:00:20,970 --> 00:00:25,070
+بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم نكمل احنا بال chapter three
+
+2
+00:00:25,070 --> 00:00:29,170
+we are talk in the previous meeting we talk about
+
+3
+00:00:29,170 --> 00:00:33,290
+the investment investment banking process يعني
+
+4
+00:00:33,290 --> 00:00:36,230
+الإجراءات بتاعة ال investment bank في ال primary
+
+5
+00:00:36,230 --> 00:00:39,390
+market وحكي عن ال primary market هي السوق الأولي
+
+6
+00:00:39,390 --> 00:00:43,070
+okay حكينا
+
+7
+00:00:43,070 --> 00:00:49,370
+بال shelf registration أخر مرة واضح اليوم بنا نركز
+
+8
+00:00:49,370 --> 00:00:53,300
+على ال investment bankingعمليات ال investment
+
+9
+00:00:53,300 --> 00:00:57,340
+banking و نحكي على ال bid ask spread كيف بيحددوا
+
+10
+00:00:57,340 --> 00:01:01,680
+الأسعار ال bid و ال bid و ال ask في السوق المعني
+
+11
+00:01:01,680 --> 00:01:05,000
+طبعا الان نيجي نحكي private placement I think I
+
+12
+00:01:05,000 --> 00:01:08,200
+explained private placement did I so I explained
+
+13
+00:01:08,200 --> 00:01:12,060
+this and I said it's cheaper than public it's okay
+
+14
+00:01:15,630 --> 00:01:18,870
+Okay initial public offerings نحكي بال initial
+
+15
+00:01:18,870 --> 00:01:24,110
+public offerings حكينا ال investment banking the
+
+16
+00:01:24,110 --> 00:01:28,350
+investment bank is in charge on market the initial
+
+17
+00:01:28,350 --> 00:01:32,010
+public offerings يعني هم البنوك الاستثمار مسئولة
+
+18
+00:01:32,010 --> 00:01:35,910
+عن تصويخ اللي هو الإزارات الأولية initial public
+
+19
+00:01:35,910 --> 00:01:40,990
+offerings وفي process لازم نمشي فيهand this
+
+20
+00:01:40,990 --> 00:01:43,910
+process زي ما انتوا شايفين includes one two three
+
+21
+00:01:43,910 --> 00:01:47,670
+main steps في تلات خطوات رئيسية the first step is
+
+22
+00:01:47,670 --> 00:01:51,430
+road shows أول خطوة هي ال road shows ال road shows
+
+23
+00:01:51,430 --> 00:01:57,580
+زي مثلا انه انا road shows انه اوضح الطريقأوضح
+
+24
+00:01:57,580 --> 00:02:01,940
+الطريق يعني الشركة الاستثمار او بنك الاستثمار
+
+25
+00:02:01,940 --> 00:02:07,680
+بياخد ال prospectus الدليل و بيعمل publicizing to
+
+26
+00:02:07,680 --> 00:02:14,060
+the underwriting بيعمل نشر لتوعية الاستثمار يعني
+
+27
+00:02:14,060 --> 00:02:19,260
+ان هم بيروحوا على شركات التجارية و شركات الصناعية
+
+28
+00:02:19,260 --> 00:02:23,080
+و كبار المستثمرين و بيعرضوا عليهم الشركة الجديدة
+
+29
+00:02:23,080 --> 00:02:27,760
+هذه بيسموها road showsبوضحولهم شو أهداف الشركة و
+
+30
+00:02:27,760 --> 00:02:30,720
+الأسعار المتوقعة و إيش المجالات الاستثمار اللي
+
+31
+00:02:30,720 --> 00:02:34,620
+فيها حتى يعني to encourage them to invest in this
+
+32
+00:02:34,620 --> 00:02:38,330
+companyإشجعوهم يستثمروا في هذه الشركة فهذه الطريقة
+
+33
+00:02:38,330 --> 00:02:41,670
+بيسموها road shows إذا ال road shows the main
+
+34
+00:02:41,670 --> 00:02:44,970
+important of road shows is to publicize a new
+
+35
+00:02:44,970 --> 00:02:48,350
+offerings من ترجمةها زي ما انتوا شايفين road shows
+
+36
+00:02:48,350 --> 00:02:52,230
+يعني هي road shows توضيح الطريق ال main objective
+
+37
+00:02:52,230 --> 00:02:59,530
+مين هم المؤسسين كيف المستقبل تبع الشركةمين ال ..
+
+38
+00:02:59,530 --> 00:03:02,310
+إيش ال .. المنتجات اللي هتخدمها الشركة؟ شو هتستفيد
+
+39
+00:03:02,310 --> 00:03:04,790
+الشركة؟ إيش الأرباح المتوقعة على الشركة هذه؟ إيش
+
+40
+00:03:04,790 --> 00:03:08,250
+الناس اللي هتشتغل في هذه الشركة؟ وبتالي هم يعني زي
+
+41
+00:03:08,250 --> 00:03:13,370
+بيعملوهم ترويج لهذه الشركة و .. و .. و نشر توعية
+
+42
+00:03:13,370 --> 00:03:16,910
+بهذه الشركة فهي بيسموها road shows في ال road
+
+43
+00:03:16,910 --> 00:03:22,450
+showsلنفترض انه احنا ال .. انا ال underwriter انا
+
+44
+00:03:22,450 --> 00:03:24,930
+ال investment bank انا شركة الاستثمار و انتوا
+
+45
+00:03:24,930 --> 00:03:29,310
+الجمهور ال .. التجار و المستثمرين و أصحاب البنوك و
+
+46
+00:03:29,310 --> 00:03:32,970
+أصحاب المؤسسات فانا بروح لوحد و بعمل list فيهم
+
+47
+00:03:32,970 --> 00:03:40,730
+اللي هو انتوا نعتبركم المؤسسات بعمل list okay
+
+48
+00:03:41,090 --> 00:03:47,070
+مثلا A, B, C, D, E and so on باجي لأول واحد مثلا A
+
+49
+00:03:47,070 --> 00:03:50,390
+باجي لال أخت اللي هى بحكي لها والله احنا عندنا
+
+50
+00:03:50,390 --> 00:03:55,850
+شركة هادى و بتنتج كذا و استثماراتها في المستقبل
+
+51
+00:03:55,850 --> 00:04:01,350
+هتكون كويسة فانت شو رأيك ف maybe she agree on this
+
+52
+00:04:01,350 --> 00:04:07,080
+ف I put like a clickI go to the second company or
+
+53
+00:04:07,080 --> 00:04:08,880
+the second institution or the second investor
+
+54
+00:04:08,880 --> 00:04:14,080
+maybe he or she disagree ممكن انه disagree okay
+
+55
+00:04:14,080 --> 00:04:18,860
+the third and so on so in this way I know the
+
+56
+00:04:18,860 --> 00:04:22,940
+demand of on the company بشوف الطلب على الشركة
+
+57
+00:04:22,940 --> 00:04:26,400
+الجديدة and this is not book building هاي طريقة
+
+58
+00:04:26,400 --> 00:04:30,280
+بسموها إيش book building book building is to know
+
+59
+00:04:30,280 --> 00:04:35,100
+what is the demandfrom the investors or from the
+
+60
+00:04:35,100 --> 00:04:38,000
+local companies or international companies انا
+
+61
+00:04:38,000 --> 00:04:41,720
+بروح بزيرهم يعني زي واحد بيبقى عنده منتج جديد بروح
+
+62
+00:04:41,720 --> 00:04:44,040
+البقالات اللي في البلد بيقولوا شو رأيكم بهالمنتجات
+
+63
+00:04:44,040 --> 00:04:46,920
+فالناس اللي بتوافق على المنتج بيعمل عليها click
+
+64
+00:04:46,920 --> 00:04:50,540
+والناس اللي ما بتوافق بحط عليها X بحيث انه to
+
+65
+00:04:50,540 --> 00:04:56,360
+evaluate the demand on this product and the same
+
+66
+00:04:56,360 --> 00:05:01,390
+thing in the investment bankingفعرفنا ال road
+
+67
+00:05:01,390 --> 00:05:06,010
+shows وعرفنا ال book building and
+
+68
+00:05:06,010 --> 00:05:08,770
+the degree of investor .. the .. the degree of
+
+69
+00:05:08,770 --> 00:05:11,910
+investor or the interest of the investors let's go
+
+70
+00:05:11,910 --> 00:05:14,310
+back to the .. to the list خلينا نرجع لل list هاي
+
+71
+00:05:14,310 --> 00:05:23,680
+okay نرجع ل a مثلا a said yes a said yesthere is
+
+72
+00:05:23,680 --> 00:05:27,060
+yes and there is really yes there is a difference
+
+73
+00:05:27,060 --> 00:05:32,000
+between yes and really yes what it means يعني إيش
+
+74
+00:05:32,000 --> 00:05:35,700
+معناها مثلا روحنا لل .. رجعنا لبنتهاي و حكت okay
+
+75
+00:05:35,700 --> 00:05:40,720
+بس حكت بالخجل بالخجل اه طبعا منيح و زين و
+
+76
+00:05:40,720 --> 00:05:43,680
+الاستثمار طبعا جيد في هالشركة هاي طبعا عمركم و
+
+77
+00:05:43,680 --> 00:05:49,300
+احنا دعمينكم و توكلوا على اللهيعني okay she
+
+78
+00:05:49,300 --> 00:05:53,520
+doesn't want to say no she prefer to say yes but
+
+79
+00:05:53,520 --> 00:05:58,170
+in reality she hide noلكن بالحقيقة هي بتخفي ال no
+
+80
+00:05:58,170 --> 00:06:03,390
+okay but when .. so the second time we reevaluate
+
+81
+00:06:03,390 --> 00:06:07,890
+the rest .. the list with people who said yes and
+
+82
+00:06:07,890 --> 00:06:10,770
+see what is the actual interest to invest in the
+
+83
+00:06:10,770 --> 00:06:14,370
+company حتى نشوف مين هم ال actual interest مين هم
+
+84
+00:06:14,370 --> 00:06:16,730
+الناس اللي فعلا بدهم يستثمروا في الشركة هذه some
+
+85
+00:06:16,730 --> 00:06:20,630
+people from .. هدول حكوا because they don't want
+
+86
+00:06:20,630 --> 00:06:28,430
+to say no okay حكوا okay لكن مش ..real okay طبعا
+
+87
+00:06:28,430 --> 00:06:32,730
+يعني زي ما احنا بنحكي بال .. بال .. بالعربي بنحكي
+
+88
+00:06:32,730 --> 00:06:35,350
+انه شو رايك انه هاي المشروع اللي بنعمله وش رايك
+
+89
+00:06:35,350 --> 00:06:39,150
+تستخدمه نقول ان شاء الله so ان شاء الله it doesn't
+
+90
+00:06:39,150 --> 00:06:47,490
+mean yes it sometimes it's hiddenOkay, so the
+
+91
+00:06:47,490 --> 00:06:51,450
+thing is to reevaluate the rest whether these
+
+92
+00:06:51,450 --> 00:06:55,630
+people are really investors or not So the third
+
+93
+00:06:55,630 --> 00:06:59,530
+step is what is the degree of investor interest in
+
+94
+00:06:59,530 --> 00:07:01,410
+the new offering provides valuable price
+
+95
+00:07:01,410 --> 00:07:05,150
+information الان نيجي أحكي هذا okay, this is
+
+96
+00:07:05,150 --> 00:07:07,390
+really yes and this is really yes and this is
+
+97
+00:07:07,390 --> 00:07:11,090
+really yes So we have three out of for instance
+
+98
+00:07:11,090 --> 00:07:13,510
+one hundred people are interested to invest in
+
+99
+00:07:13,510 --> 00:07:19,160
+this companyهدول بدهم فعلا and this is help us to
+
+100
+00:07:19,160 --> 00:07:22,400
+evaluate what is the real price of this company
+
+101
+00:07:22,400 --> 00:07:27,360
+بتساعدنا أنه نعرف السعر الحقيقي للشركة لأنه لما
+
+102
+00:07:27,360 --> 00:07:32,160
+بصير ال demand بزيد أكيد السعر بتحسن فزي أنتم
+
+103
+00:07:32,160 --> 00:07:38,020
+شايفين هذا ال process هاي الطريقة it help us to
+
+104
+00:07:38,020 --> 00:07:43,870
+evaluate the real price of the companySo it is
+
+105
+00:07:43,870 --> 00:07:46,850
+like a valuable information about the company or
+
+106
+00:07:46,850 --> 00:07:50,490
+about the pricing of the stock يعني بتساعدنا ان
+
+107
+00:07:50,490 --> 00:07:54,310
+احنا نعرف كداش الأسعار يعني مثلا لو احنا اجينا
+
+108
+00:07:54,310 --> 00:07:58,350
+بدنا نسوق منتج في السوق وشوفنا ان الناس they are
+
+109
+00:07:58,350 --> 00:08:02,100
+not interested فاحنا بنحاول نزل السعرلكن لما شوفنا
+
+110
+00:08:02,100 --> 00:08:04,900
+الناس are interested فبنحاول احنا نعمل the .. to
+
+111
+00:08:04,900 --> 00:08:08,160
+push the price up، بنحاول نرفع السعر لهفو، فهي
+
+112
+00:08:08,160 --> 00:08:11,060
+this is important .. this process is important for
+
+113
+00:08:11,060 --> 00:08:13,840
+the investment bank to determine the actual price
+
+114
+00:08:13,840 --> 00:08:18,280
+of the underlying stock بتساعدهم حتى يعرفوا السعر
+
+115
+00:08:18,280 --> 00:08:25,760
+الحقيقي لل investors تبعتهمgeneral speaking from
+
+116
+00:08:25,760 --> 00:08:29,820
+the short investment point of view من وجهة نظر
+
+117
+00:08:29,820 --> 00:08:34,960
+استثمار قصيرة أجل investors prefer the IBO to
+
+118
+00:08:34,960 --> 00:08:38,400
+invest just only one day يعني من وجهة نظر استثمار
+
+119
+00:08:38,400 --> 00:08:43,480
+قصيرة الأجل المستثمرين بيفضل استثمار بال IBOلمدة
+
+120
+00:08:43,480 --> 00:08:48,880
+يوم واحد انتبهوا يعني لو انت لو احنا بين خيارين to
+
+121
+00:08:48,880 --> 00:08:53,920
+invest in IBO ايش يعني IBO يعني شركة جديدة or to
+
+122
+00:08:53,920 --> 00:08:57,400
+invest in non IBO
+
+123
+00:09:00,930 --> 00:09:03,750
+So we have two options to invest in IBO initial
+
+124
+00:09:03,750 --> 00:09:08,410
+public offerings or to invest in non IBO if your
+
+125
+00:09:08,410 --> 00:09:12,750
+time frame or long or your time horizon يعني إذا
+
+126
+00:09:12,750 --> 00:09:15,570
+كانت الفترة الزمنية الاستثمار short time investors
+
+127
+00:09:15,570 --> 00:09:21,990
+prefer to invest in the IBO إذا كان هو .. إذا كان
+
+128
+00:09:21,990 --> 00:09:26,420
+فترة .. بدهم يستثمروا شهر تانand particularly one
+
+129
+00:09:26,420 --> 00:09:30,780
+day ليوم واحد so they prefer to invest in IBO
+
+130
+00:09:30,780 --> 00:09:35,400
+initial public offerings why because the
+
+131
+00:09:35,400 --> 00:09:38,580
+investment bank the investment bank بنك الاستثمار
+
+132
+00:09:38,580 --> 00:09:44,220
+it try to make the the price of underwriting lower
+
+133
+00:09:44,220 --> 00:09:49,010
+than the expected priceOkay يعني البنوك الاستثمار
+
+134
+00:09:49,010 --> 00:09:53,110
+عادة بتعمل سعر ال IPO أقل من سعر المتوقع من
+
+135
+00:09:53,110 --> 00:09:56,130
+المستثمرين So it's like encouraging them to invest
+
+136
+00:09:56,130 --> 00:10:01,410
+in this company Once the underlying clause or the
+
+137
+00:10:01,410 --> 00:10:05,350
+underwriting clause the price is jump مجرد ما
+
+138
+00:10:05,350 --> 00:10:09,290
+يخلصوا ال underwriting مكون ال price عمل jumping
+
+139
+00:10:09,290 --> 00:10:15,680
+مثال كبير لشركة Linuxشركة Linux في شركة يعني عملوا
+
+140
+00:10:15,680 --> 00:10:20,480
+عليها دراسة في عملة IBO ف ال price ال expected
+
+141
+00:10:20,480 --> 00:10:27,320
+price was I think 30$ but it jumped to more than
+
+142
+00:10:27,320 --> 00:10:33,320
+200 something or 289 look just only on one day
+
+143
+00:10:33,320 --> 00:10:36,580
+بيوم واحد ال investors they buy this or they
+
+144
+00:10:36,580 --> 00:10:41,120
+bought this at 30في نهاية هذا اليوم، قمت بالتسجيل
+
+145
+00:10:41,120 --> 00:10:49,680
+إلى 289 ميكين أكتر من 600% كرم عادية، عملين أكتر
+
+146
+00:10:49,680 --> 00:10:53,860
+من ستمية في المية، فهذا استثمار جيد في ال IBO فقط
+
+147
+00:10:53,860 --> 00:10:57,920
+لأي يوم، ليوم واحد بس، يستثمرون. أنا أتكلم عن
+
+148
+00:10:57,920 --> 00:11:04,140
+الـShort Term، من الانتقال اللواني، الـNon-IBO
+
+149
+00:11:04,140 --> 00:11:11,470
+أفضل من الـIBObecause the IBOA representing a
+
+150
+00:11:11,470 --> 00:11:14,930
+newly company or a newly established company which
+
+151
+00:11:14,930 --> 00:11:19,690
+may subject of risk عادة الشركات الجديدة بتكون
+
+152
+00:11:19,690 --> 00:11:21,850
+فيها risk عالي أكتر من الشركات القديمة
+
+153
+00:11:25,210 --> 00:11:28,970
+إذا كنت تفكر في الاستثمار في زمن طويل، فمن المفضل
+
+154
+00:11:28,970 --> 00:11:35,470
+ان تستثمر في شركات غير IPO و ليس شركات IPO. لكن
+
+155
+00:11:35,470 --> 00:11:39,130
+إذا كنت تفكر في الاستثمار في زمن قصير، فمن المفضل
+
+156
+00:11:39,130 --> 00:11:44,390
+ان تستثمر في IPO و ليس شركة غير IPO. أعتقد أن هذا
+
+157
+00:11:44,390 --> 00:11:44,950
+صحيح.
+
+158
+00:11:48,550 --> 00:11:56,610
+ترجمت؟فى المدى القصير المستثمرين بيفضله ال IBO فى
+
+159
+00:11:56,610 --> 00:12:01,830
+المدى البعيد بيفضله ال non IBO ليش؟ فى المدى
+
+160
+00:12:01,830 --> 00:12:06,790
+القصير ال investment bank بنك الاستثمار بعمل السعر
+
+161
+00:12:06,790 --> 00:12:14,000
+الإصدار أقل من السعر المتوقع بالمدى البعيدبيكون
+
+162
+00:12:14,000 --> 00:12:19,280
+فيه سعر تعديل للسعر و الشركة الجديدة بتكون إلها
+
+163
+00:12:19,280 --> 00:12:23,400
+مخاطر أكتر من الشركة القديمة أو الشركة اللي أصلا
+
+164
+00:12:23,400 --> 00:12:26,340
+متأثرة القديمة لو طلعنا احنا على ال chart هان
+
+165
+00:12:26,340 --> 00:12:32,540
+بتشوفوا عندنا ال blue و ال black الأزرق و ال .. ال
+
+166
+00:12:32,540 --> 00:12:36,900
+non issuers يعني ال non IPO شوفوا ال black واضح
+
+167
+00:12:36,900 --> 00:12:42,040
+انه in the long term is less than the non IPO and
+
+168
+00:12:42,040 --> 00:12:42,420
+clear
+
+169
+00:12:46,140 --> 00:12:54,380
+Okay now how securities are traded ال non IPO
+
+170
+00:12:54,380 --> 00:12:59,440
+شركات لم تصدر شركات قديمة يعني لم تصدر أسهم جديدة
+
+171
+00:12:59,440 --> 00:13:07,140
+من خفض و بعدين برتفع هي بال IPO هو هي ال IPO ال
+
+172
+00:13:07,140 --> 00:13:11,780
+non IPO شركة قديمة يعني أصلا خلاص هي مش بال
+
+173
+00:13:11,780 --> 00:13:13,020
+secondary market
+
+174
+00:13:16,190 --> 00:13:20,790
+المقصود هان بال .. بالاستثمار قصير أجل انه لاحظوا
+
+175
+00:13:20,790 --> 00:13:25,330
+انه خلال يوم واحد ال investors they prefer to
+
+176
+00:13:25,330 --> 00:13:28,750
+invest just only one day في ال IBO بعدين بيصير
+
+177
+00:13:28,750 --> 00:13:34,290
+jumping بال price اش في عندك سؤال هان؟ private
+
+178
+00:13:34,290 --> 00:13:38,770
+placements private placements معايا بنات هان؟
+
+179
+00:13:38,770 --> 00:13:44,110
+private placements اللي هو بيسموه اكتتاب خاصهذا
+
+180
+00:13:44,110 --> 00:13:47,070
+الاكتتاب الخاص is only for a particular investors
+
+181
+00:13:47,070 --> 00:13:51,890
+and particular institutions اه يعني الشركة بتصدر
+
+182
+00:13:51,890 --> 00:13:59,510
+أسهم أو سندات لأ خاصة بناس معينين okay و مين هدول
+
+183
+00:13:59,510 --> 00:14:04,130
+الناس عادة إلهم سمعة في الشركة عندهم خبرة في
+
+184
+00:14:04,130 --> 00:14:07,150
+الاستثمارات okay so it makes prestigious position
+
+185
+00:14:07,150 --> 00:14:13,410
+for the companyوكمان لإنه these shares are not
+
+186
+00:14:13,410 --> 00:14:16,250
+traded in the secondary markets this is first the
+
+187
+00:14:16,250 --> 00:14:20,510
+second thing is it is cheaper than the public the
+
+188
+00:14:20,510 --> 00:14:22,910
+initial public offerings أرخص because the
+
+189
+00:14:22,910 --> 00:14:27,910
+commission of the investment bank is less than the
+
+190
+00:14:27,910 --> 00:14:30,890
+commission in the case of initial public offerings
+
+191
+00:14:30,890 --> 00:14:40,590
+okay types of markets how securities are tradedكيف
+
+192
+00:14:40,590 --> 00:14:44,450
+بتتم البيع و الشراء في الأسواق المالية and be
+
+193
+00:14:44,450 --> 00:14:48,730
+careful in here and listen to me انتبهوا علي و
+
+194
+00:14:48,730 --> 00:14:53,970
+فاتحوا بالكمtypes of markets how securities are
+
+195
+00:14:53,970 --> 00:14:57,270
+traded it depends on the types of markets كيف يتم
+
+196
+00:14:57,270 --> 00:15:00,650
+الاتجار والتعامل بالأسواق المالية يعني هلأ بنشتري
+
+197
+00:15:00,650 --> 00:15:03,990
+مثلا commercial paper بنشتري treasury bills بنشتري
+
+198
+00:15:03,990 --> 00:15:07,770
+bonds بنشتري stocks any securities it depends on
+
+199
+00:15:07,770 --> 00:15:11,570
+the type of markets حسب نوع السوق the first type
+
+200
+00:15:11,570 --> 00:15:15,450
+of market is direct cashdirect cash is not applied
+
+201
+00:15:15,450 --> 00:15:17,870
+in the financial markets مش مطبقة في ال financial
+
+202
+00:15:17,870 --> 00:15:20,670
+markets it is very rare to apply in the financial
+
+203
+00:15:20,670 --> 00:15:25,150
+markets اكتير يعني مش موجودة يعني نادرة جدا تتطبق
+
+204
+00:15:25,150 --> 00:15:29,570
+في الأسواق المالية what it means direct cashإيش
+
+205
+00:15:29,570 --> 00:15:32,150
+معناها؟ إنه إحنا نبحث بحث مباشر كيف يعني لو إحنا
+
+206
+00:15:32,150 --> 00:15:35,510
+بدنا نشتري مثلا غصالة ولا تلاجة بنروح نلف على
+
+207
+00:15:35,510 --> 00:15:39,290
+البلد و ندور على التلاجة و نشوف there is no need
+
+208
+00:15:39,290 --> 00:15:42,870
+to use intermediate institutions مافيش حاجة إنه
+
+209
+00:15:42,870 --> 00:15:46,710
+إحنا ندور ع وسيط بنروح على البلد و بنروح بنشوف وين
+
+210
+00:15:46,710 --> 00:15:50,630
+بيعين التلاجات أو الغسالات and we find this okay
+
+211
+00:15:50,630 --> 00:15:54,130
+this is known as direct search buyers and sellers
+
+212
+00:15:54,130 --> 00:15:58,020
+seek each other التانين بيدوروا على بعضOkay the
+
+213
+00:15:58,020 --> 00:16:02,280
+second one which is more common in the financial
+
+214
+00:16:02,280 --> 00:16:04,680
+markets هذي مطبقة كتير في ال .. في ال financial
+
+215
+00:16:04,680 --> 00:16:08,280
+market which is known as brokers markets brokers
+
+216
+00:16:08,280 --> 00:16:14,680
+markets brokers it means سمسار يعني أسواق السماسلة
+
+217
+00:16:14,680 --> 00:16:21,140
+what it means brokers markets it means the .. the
+
+218
+00:16:21,140 --> 00:16:25,760
+broker is mediate between the buyers and the
+
+219
+00:16:25,760 --> 00:16:29,290
+sellersيعني ال broker هو متوسط بين ال buyers and
+
+220
+00:16:29,290 --> 00:16:32,750
+sellers okay for instance this guy wants to buy
+
+221
+00:16:32,750 --> 00:16:37,810
+IBM so the broker should locate for one to sell
+
+222
+00:16:37,810 --> 00:16:43,590
+the IBM okay يعني ال .. إذا واحد بده يشتري ال IBM
+
+223
+00:16:43,590 --> 00:16:46,930
+فهو راح يدور على واحد يبيع ال IBM so it's like
+
+224
+00:16:46,930 --> 00:16:51,220
+matching between the buyers and the sellersاه هو
+
+225
+00:16:51,220 --> 00:16:54,900
+دور وح الشغل عادي، يعني مثلا زي مثلا سمسارة
+
+226
+00:16:54,900 --> 00:16:58,280
+الأراضي، سمسار الأراضي بيروح مثلا واحد بيشتري خطة
+
+227
+00:16:58,280 --> 00:17:03,880
+أرض، بيروح بيدور على واحد بيبيع الأرض بق .. the ..
+
+228
+00:17:03,880 --> 00:17:05,840
+the main difference between the real estate
+
+229
+00:17:05,840 --> 00:17:09,600
+broker, real estate أن هو تجار العقارات and the
+
+230
+00:17:09,600 --> 00:17:12,720
+financial market is little bit different because
+
+231
+00:17:12,720 --> 00:17:17,700
+in the broker market there is no face to facemost
+
+232
+00:17:17,700 --> 00:17:23,520
+of the deals is exercised by using computer system
+
+233
+00:17:23,520 --> 00:17:26,560
+يعني there is no need to meet the buyers and the
+
+234
+00:17:26,560 --> 00:17:29,920
+sellers in the same time they can meet up ممكن هم
+
+235
+00:17:29,920 --> 00:17:33,060
+يلتقيوا within the computer system ممكن هم يلتقوا
+
+236
+00:17:33,060 --> 00:17:36,900
+عبر ال computer system يعني مثلا إنه هذا بيجي بده
+
+237
+00:17:36,900 --> 00:17:40,960
+يشتريمش شرط انه انا فعلا اللي يكون واحد موجود بده
+
+238
+00:17:40,960 --> 00:17:43,560
+يبيع ممكن هذا الشخص اللي موجود بده يبيع موجود عند
+
+239
+00:17:43,560 --> 00:17:47,220
+dealer آخر وبالتالي ال computer system is locating
+
+240
+00:17:47,220 --> 00:17:50,340
+هو ال computer system هيدور لوحده without the
+
+241
+00:17:50,340 --> 00:17:54,080
+human intervention بدون ما يدخل الإنسان and locate
+
+242
+00:17:54,080 --> 00:17:58,680
+who are the buyers and who are the sellers مش
+
+243
+00:17:58,680 --> 00:18:02,140
+هيدخل الإنسان ويروح يدور على الكلام هذا ال
+
+244
+00:18:02,140 --> 00:18:03,820
+computer can do it
+
+245
+00:18:06,840 --> 00:18:11,060
+similar to like this okay عادة ال buyer هم ايش
+
+246
+00:18:11,060 --> 00:18:13,240
+بيسووا بيحطوا الأسعار تبعتهم و ال seller بيحطوا
+
+247
+00:18:13,240 --> 00:18:16,080
+الأسعار تبعتهم and we match between them that's it
+
+248
+00:18:16,080 --> 00:18:20,080
+okay this
+
+249
+00:18:20,080 --> 00:18:22,620
+is broker market the third market is known as the
+
+250
+00:18:22,620 --> 00:18:26,960
+dealer markets dealer markets what is the
+
+251
+00:18:26,960 --> 00:18:28,700
+difference between dealer market and broker
+
+252
+00:18:28,700 --> 00:18:34,580
+markets this difference is very tinyيعني tiny يعني
+
+253
+00:18:34,580 --> 00:18:40,180
+بسيط يعني الفرق بين ال broker و بين ال dealer is
+
+254
+00:18:40,180 --> 00:18:43,660
+very tiny and some people they get confused from
+
+255
+00:18:43,660 --> 00:18:47,220
+the understanding of the broker market and the
+
+256
+00:18:47,220 --> 00:18:49,640
+dealer market and sometimes they mix up between
+
+257
+00:18:49,640 --> 00:18:53,700
+them وبعض الحالات بيكونوا اتدخلوا ال broker market
+
+258
+00:18:53,700 --> 00:18:57,160
+و ال dealer market look look at this example okay
+
+259
+00:19:04,310 --> 00:19:10,190
+انظر إلى هذا المثال هنا حسنا، لذا لدينا مصادق هنا
+
+260
+00:19:10,190 --> 00:19:17,610
+ومصادق هنا حسنا؟
+
+261
+00:19:17,610 --> 00:19:24,150
+لذا مصادق ومصادق هناك رجل أساسي مع رجل كبير يعمل
+
+262
+00:19:24,150 --> 00:19:29,410
+.. هذا الرجل الأساسي يعمل كشركة مصادق فهذه اليد
+
+263
+00:19:29,410 --> 00:19:35,650
+هنا وهذه اليد هنا، لذلك أخذه من هنالذلك هذا الشخص
+
+264
+00:19:35,650 --> 00:19:42,690
+يشتري و هذا الشخص يبيع هذا هو نوع من نظام
+
+265
+00:19:42,690 --> 00:19:51,490
+البروكورات لكن في محافظات الشركات ليس هناك حاجة
+
+266
+00:19:51,490 --> 00:19:56,910
+لكي تقارن بين المشتركين و المشتركين إذا على سبيل
+
+267
+00:19:56,910 --> 00:19:58,030
+المثال فقط لدينا مشترك
+
+268
+00:20:01,080 --> 00:20:04,340
+So what is the dealer should do in this case? The
+
+269
+00:20:04,340 --> 00:20:10,220
+dealer has inventory What it means inventory? It
+
+270
+00:20:10,220 --> 00:20:17,840
+means the dealer here buying to himself from the
+
+271
+00:20:17,840 --> 00:20:23,860
+financial market and when someone askingto .. to
+
+272
+00:20:23,860 --> 00:20:28,300
+sell or to buy he or she can sell and buy from his
+
+273
+00:20:28,300 --> 00:20:31,880
+or her inventory ال inventory .. أه هذا inventory
+
+274
+00:20:31,880 --> 00:20:36,080
+مخزون يعني مثلا أنه مافيش حاجة يروح ي .. يدور ع
+
+275
+00:20:36,080 --> 00:20:40,300
+باق و مشتري في الحالة الأولى أنه ال .. ال .. ال
+
+276
+00:20:40,300 --> 00:20:44,340
+broker لازم يوجد ال .. يوجد الباق و المشتري طب إذا
+
+277
+00:20:44,340 --> 00:20:50,540
+كان just only we have one sideشو نسوي؟ اه في نوع
+
+278
+00:20:50,540 --> 00:20:54,460
+اخر بيسميه ال dealer ال dealer هو فقط مسموح له انه
+
+279
+00:20:54,460 --> 00:20:59,040
+يشتري الحسابه الخاص يعني مثلا يكون عنده يشتري IBM
+
+280
+00:20:59,040 --> 00:21:02,300
+يشتري general motors okay زي ما انتوا شايفين
+
+281
+00:21:02,300 --> 00:21:06,140
+يشتريوا ياهو و يخليهم عنده لما بيجي واحد بده ياهو
+
+282
+00:21:06,140 --> 00:21:12,020
+بيبيعه لو واحد بده يشتري يعني هذا بده يشتري ياهو
+
+283
+00:21:12,020 --> 00:21:15,640
+فهو بيبيعه لو واحد بده يبيعه بيشتري منه بيشتري منه
+
+284
+00:21:15,640 --> 00:21:20,960
+لحساباته الشخصيةبدون ما يبحث عن طرف آخر why this
+
+285
+00:21:20,960 --> 00:21:27,360
+and this is regulated by the ACE the exchange
+
+286
+00:21:27,360 --> 00:21:34,120
+commission the ACE ممنوع ال ال ال ال broker ممنوع
+
+287
+00:21:34,120 --> 00:21:39,060
+يشتري و يبيع حسابهلازم to find out the two sides
+
+288
+00:21:39,060 --> 00:21:42,240
+of .. of the transaction لازم usually the two
+
+289
+00:21:42,240 --> 00:21:43,980
+sides of the transaction the buyers and the
+
+290
+00:21:43,980 --> 00:21:47,260
+sellers but in the .. in the dealer system there
+
+291
+00:21:47,260 --> 00:21:51,580
+is no need to have two sides we can do it without
+
+292
+00:21:51,580 --> 00:21:56,240
+two sides just only one side how we can do this if
+
+293
+00:21:56,240 --> 00:21:59,640
+the .. if the dealer has inventory إذا كان عنده
+
+294
+00:21:59,640 --> 00:22:03,950
+مخزونOkay مثلا اجى هذا بده يشتري Yahoo فبيبيعوا ال
+
+295
+00:22:03,950 --> 00:22:07,010
+Yahoo من مخزونه لو اجوا ناس كتير يشتروا Yahoo
+
+296
+00:22:07,010 --> 00:22:11,250
+شوفوا انتمهوا للمثال اجوا ال Yahoo تبعه اتطلعوا
+
+297
+00:22:11,250 --> 00:22:16,030
+على المنطقة هاي لنفترض انه هذه المنطقة ل Yahoo عدد
+
+298
+00:22:16,030 --> 00:22:22,390
+الأسهم اللي هو عنده في المخزون لشركة Yahoo هلأ هال
+
+299
+00:22:22,390 --> 00:22:28,440
+طبعا اخدوا المستثمرين اشتروا ال Yahoo okayاشتروا
+
+300
+00:22:28,440 --> 00:22:34,500
+الأخر نهار أو يعني في أثناء العمليات إذا انخفض عدد
+
+301
+00:22:34,500 --> 00:22:37,540
+الأسهم الموجودة عنده لنفترض أنه صارت هالمنطقة هذه
+
+302
+00:22:37,540 --> 00:22:46,280
+okay فإيش راح يقرر هو؟ راح يقرر أنه يزيد .. يشتري
+
+303
+00:22:46,280 --> 00:22:49,960
+طب من وين بيروح بيشتري؟ هلأ بنحكيلكم من وين بدي
+
+304
+00:22:49,960 --> 00:22:58,610
+أشتري okay بيروح بيشتري من .. لأهذا ال real
+
+305
+00:22:58,610 --> 00:23:01,290
+financial markets هذا ال financial market الحقيقي
+
+306
+00:23:01,290 --> 00:23:04,630
+اللي هو New York Stock Exchange in the New York
+
+307
+00:23:04,630 --> 00:23:10,190
+Stock Exchange there is some people known as
+
+308
+00:23:10,190 --> 00:23:15,530
+specialists specialists
+
+309
+00:23:15,530 --> 00:23:20,630
+ايش اسمهم متخصصين specialists for instance he
+
+310
+00:23:20,630 --> 00:23:25,870
+needs to buy Yahoohe should go to the .. to the
+
+311
+00:23:25,870 --> 00:23:28,890
+specialist what it means specialist ايش معناه
+
+312
+00:23:28,890 --> 00:23:32,510
+specialist هذا specialist اللي هو سوق المتخصصين
+
+313
+00:23:32,510 --> 00:23:37,150
+everyone is specialized in a particular stocks
+
+314
+00:23:37,150 --> 00:23:42,690
+يعني كل واحد من هدول اللي شايفينهم هذا بيسموهم
+
+315
+00:23:42,690 --> 00:23:47,610
+seat هذا مقعد اسمها seat كل واحد اللي له مقعد في
+
+316
+00:23:47,610 --> 00:23:53,090
+السوق is specializedto in a particular stocks مثلا
+
+317
+00:23:53,090 --> 00:23:56,890
+هذا متخصص ب IBM مثلا و جينا ل ال motors هذا متخصص
+
+318
+00:23:56,890 --> 00:24:01,330
+ب Yahoo هذا متخصص مثلا ب Google هذا .. و هكذا اذا
+
+319
+00:24:01,330 --> 00:24:04,110
+مابدو يشتري .. فلا لا اذا هاد بدو يشتري ل مين لازم
+
+320
+00:24:04,110 --> 00:24:07,890
+يروح ل مين ل هذا لازم يروح ل .. ل هاد لازم يروح ل
+
+321
+00:24:07,890 --> 00:24:15,510
+اللي متخصص في Yahoo لأ اشتري بأعلى اقل مش بأعلى
+
+322
+00:24:15,510 --> 00:24:21,320
+خلينا نحكي ايوة حسبال specialists هان .. ال
+
+323
+00:24:21,320 --> 00:24:25,520
+specialists هان طبعا هذا موجود .. هذا dealer موجود
+
+324
+00:24:25,520 --> 00:24:27,940
+في ال united states فى dealer آخر موجود في .. في
+
+325
+00:24:27,940 --> 00:24:32,040
+دبي، dealer آخر موجود في توكيو فال dealers كلهم
+
+326
+00:24:32,040 --> 00:24:38,640
+بتصلوا فهذا عشان يشرلوا يهو فهو بقدر .. هو بحدد
+
+327
+00:24:38,640 --> 00:24:41,980
+السعر هدول ال specialists هم اللي بيحددوا السعر و
+
+328
+00:24:41,980 --> 00:24:44,380
+هدول بيسموهم ال market makers هدول نوع من أنواع ال
+
+329
+00:24:44,380 --> 00:24:47,380
+market makers هم اللي بيحددوا السوق لإن هدول ال
+
+330
+00:24:47,380 --> 00:24:51,340
+big people يعنيthey know everything هدول واكفين
+
+331
+00:24:51,340 --> 00:24:55,300
+فوق و بتطلع كل واحد بالاخير كل العالم بيجي عندهم
+
+332
+00:24:55,300 --> 00:25:01,660
+okay طبعا عشان يصيروا specialists عشان يصيروا
+
+333
+00:25:01,660 --> 00:25:05,360
+specialists متخصصين they have to have a seat
+
+334
+00:25:05,360 --> 00:25:09,760
+inside the financial market لازم يكون عندهم seat
+
+335
+00:25:09,760 --> 00:25:16,060
+مقعد but this seat is worth more
+
+336
+00:25:16,060 --> 00:25:20,040
+than four million dollarهذا المقعد عشان يكون عندنا
+
+337
+00:25:20,040 --> 00:25:25,240
+مقعد نشتري مقعد لازم ندفع four million dollar a
+
+338
+00:25:25,240 --> 00:25:33,720
+year it depends on the auction حسب المزاد طبعا
+
+339
+00:25:33,720 --> 00:25:38,520
+المقعد بسنة أظن 2008 كان سعره أربعة مليون دولار
+
+340
+00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:42,970
+okay4 مليون دولار سعر المقعد الواحد في ال
+
+341
+00:25:42,970 --> 00:25:46,490
+financial market what is the benefits of having a
+
+342
+00:25:46,490 --> 00:25:49,610
+seat in the financial market؟ شو ال .. شو الفائدة؟
+
+343
+00:25:49,610 --> 00:25:53,630
+الفائدة انه for each transaction you earn
+
+344
+00:25:53,630 --> 00:25:56,510
+commission في كل transaction، في كل buy and sell
+
+345
+00:25:56,510 --> 00:26:00,470
+بناخد .. بناخد عمولة okay هذا بالنسبة لل
+
+346
+00:26:00,470 --> 00:26:06,670
+specialist خلينا to sum up ان .. ان .. يعني ان ..
+
+347
+00:26:06,670 --> 00:26:10,490
+to sum up specialist هو اللي بخد المشارع؟ اهأه ال
+
+348
+00:26:10,490 --> 00:26:13,110
+specialists بياخدوا و ال .. و ال .. هدول بياخدوا
+
+349
+00:26:13,110 --> 00:26:17,650
+ال commission ال .. ال dealer و ال brokers to sum
+
+350
+00:26:17,650 --> 00:26:21,890
+up يعني نلخص اللي إحنا حكيناها إنه إحنا في ال
+
+351
+00:26:21,890 --> 00:26:24,630
+financial market في عندنا اللي هو direct search
+
+352
+00:26:24,630 --> 00:26:27,470
+حكيناها و هذا it is very rare in the financial
+
+353
+00:26:27,470 --> 00:26:31,110
+market we have the broker .. the broker they have
+
+354
+00:26:31,110 --> 00:26:34,130
+to have buyers and sellers and we have the dealers
+
+355
+00:26:34,130 --> 00:26:37,130
+.. the dealers they buy and sell from their
+
+356
+00:26:37,130 --> 00:26:40,800
+inventoryوهما بيشتغلوا داخل ال financial markets
+
+357
+00:26:40,800 --> 00:26:47,480
+وهم بيشتغلوا داخل ال financial markets وهم
+
+358
+00:26:47,480 --> 00:26:51,300
+بيشتغلوا داخل ال financial markets وهم بيشتغلوا
+
+359
+00:26:51,300 --> 00:26:57,840
+داخل ال financial markets وهم
+
+360
+00:26:57,840 --> 00:26:58,040
+بيشتغلوا داخل ال financial markets وهم بيشتغلوا
+
+361
+00:26:58,040 --> 00:26:58,100
+markets وهم بيشتغلوا داخل ال financial markets وهم
+
+362
+00:26:58,100 --> 00:26:59,860
+markets وهم بيشتغلوا داخل ال financial markets وهم
+
+363
+00:26:59,860 --> 00:27:03,700
+بيشتغلوا داخل ال
+
+364
+00:27:10,170 --> 00:27:19,150
+الفرق بين ال dealer .. لأ الفرق بين ال .. لأ
+
+365
+00:27:19,150 --> 00:27:25,490
+بالظبط هذا ال broker ال dealer هو يعني اعطيكي مثال
+
+366
+00:27:25,490 --> 00:27:30,170
+حكينا سمسار الأراضي هو بشبه ال broker السمسار لكن
+
+367
+00:27:30,170 --> 00:27:34,660
+في تاجر أراضيهو بيشيل الحساب و بيجي الناس بدهم
+
+368
+00:27:34,660 --> 00:27:37,380
+يشتريوا و يبيعوا فهو بيعمل توفيق بناءه and this
+
+369
+00:27:37,380 --> 00:27:40,480
+doesn't mean أنه كمان بيعملش buying and selling
+
+370
+00:27:40,480 --> 00:27:43,260
+between the .. doesn't match between buyer and
+
+371
+00:27:43,260 --> 00:27:45,920
+seller لأنه مرات ممكن التاجر الأراضي مثلا إيجاله
+
+372
+00:27:45,920 --> 00:27:51,400
+واحد يقول والله أنا بدي قطعة أرض في الشجعية مثلا
+
+373
+00:27:51,400 --> 00:27:55,100
+فهو ماعندهوش فهو يقول okay أنا بدبرلك ففي الحالة
+
+374
+00:27:55,100 --> 00:28:00,100
+هذه he works as a broker هو اشتغل as a brokerيعني
+
+375
+00:28:00,100 --> 00:28:03,000
+ال dealer مسموحله يشتغل broker and dealer in the
+
+376
+00:28:03,000 --> 00:28:06,960
+same time لكن ال broker just only broker بس
+
+377
+00:28:06,960 --> 00:28:14,660
+مسموحله يعمل broker okay فهي ال ..
+
+378
+00:28:14,660 --> 00:28:17,380
+طبعا تنسوش ال specialist market في عندنا ال
+
+379
+00:28:17,380 --> 00:28:23,300
+auction market ال auction market يعني سوق المزادات
+
+380
+00:28:23,300 --> 00:28:28,120
+مثلا هي stock مثلا IBMبيعملوا سعر افتتاح بيقولوا
+
+381
+00:28:28,120 --> 00:28:31,760
+مثلا سبعتاشر دولار بيصير الكل يزيد سبعتاشر نص
+
+382
+00:28:31,760 --> 00:28:35,460
+سبنتاشر و هكذا this is physical هذا اللي انا عملته
+
+383
+00:28:35,460 --> 00:28:39,140
+هلأ physical nowadays there is no need for
+
+384
+00:28:39,140 --> 00:28:42,900
+physical meeting between the dealers مافيش حاجة
+
+385
+00:28:42,900 --> 00:28:47,520
+انه يلتقوا جسديا physically okay so they can do
+
+386
+00:28:47,520 --> 00:28:51,740
+this by using computer system فهمتوا أيش ال
+
+387
+00:28:51,740 --> 00:28:54,680
+auction market يعني أسواق المزارات okay
+
+388
+00:28:59,310 --> 00:29:03,790
+Okay the bid and ask price ال .. ال broker و ال
+
+389
+00:29:03,790 --> 00:29:08,170
+dealer من وين دربحوا هلأ تشوفوا كيف الاستفادة تبع
+
+390
+00:29:08,170 --> 00:29:21,750
+ال broker و ال dealer في
+
+391
+00:29:21,750 --> 00:29:25,330
+السوق المالي الأسعار تعرض بطريقة ال bid و ال ask
+
+392
+00:29:25,330 --> 00:29:32,570
+okayin the financial market the .. the dealer use
+
+393
+00:29:32,570 --> 00:29:37,530
+the bid and ask pricing system هاي ال dealer okay
+
+394
+00:29:37,530 --> 00:29:42,330
+suggest this bid and ask what it means bid and ask
+
+395
+00:29:42,330 --> 00:29:46,670
+for instance if we have a particular company like
+
+396
+00:29:46,670 --> 00:29:53,290
+this the .. the dealer تبقوا للأسعار ask bid and
+
+397
+00:29:53,290 --> 00:29:58,060
+ask اتطلعوا ال ask زمان أعلى من ال bidال ask أعلى
+
+398
+00:29:58,060 --> 00:30:03,400
+من البيت طيب هلأ في انا طرفين في طرف ال investor
+
+399
+00:30:03,400 --> 00:30:06,780
+المستثمر اللي بيشتري و طرف ال dealer هذا ال dealer
+
+400
+00:30:06,780 --> 00:30:12,860
+هو بعرض السعر ل investor investor buy at this
+
+401
+00:30:12,860 --> 00:30:17,160
+price then
+
+402
+00:30:17,160 --> 00:30:21,040
+if the investor buy at this price it means the
+
+403
+00:30:21,040 --> 00:30:22,660
+dealer sell at this price
+
+404
+00:30:25,850 --> 00:30:30,250
+وإذا كان المستخدم يبيع في هذا السعر، فالشركة تشتري
+
+405
+00:30:30,250 --> 00:30:34,830
+في هذا السعر، حسنا؟
+
+406
+00:30:34,830 --> 00:30:41,010
+فالشركة تشتري في الـ 19.20 و تبيع في الـ 20،
+
+407
+00:30:41,010 --> 00:30:50,630
+فالنسبة للشركة هي حوالي 80، هذه هي النسبة للشركة،
+
+408
+00:30:50,630 --> 00:30:56,860
+هذه النسبة معروفة كـ Spreadspread يعني الفارق هذا
+
+409
+00:30:56,860 --> 00:31:02,260
+ال profit نسميه spread however for the investor
+
+410
+00:31:02,260 --> 00:31:07,460
+this is known as cost تكلفة
+
+411
+00:31:07,460 --> 00:31:13,300
+خليني أعطيكم مثال لو احنا روحنا ناخد سعر الدهب bid
+
+412
+00:31:13,300 --> 00:31:18,640
+and ask للدهب مثلا واحد و تلاتين و واحد و تلاتين
+
+413
+00:31:18,640 --> 00:31:24,260
+اربعين okay like this طبعا الدهب اليام هي رخيص
+
+414
+00:31:26,740 --> 00:31:31,440
+comparing with the high price in the last one year
+
+415
+00:31:31,440 --> 00:31:35,320
+انا بحكي مقارنة مع السنة اللي فاتت الدهب كتير في
+
+416
+00:31:35,320 --> 00:31:41,460
+.. نزل حوالي 200-300 نقطة okay فطلعوا على سعر
+
+417
+00:31:41,460 --> 00:31:46,880
+الدهب 31 gram و 31.40 مثلا فهلأ اللي هنعطيكوا مثال
+
+418
+00:31:46,880 --> 00:31:53,160
+لو رايحت ست راح تشتري دهب على أي سعر هتشتري؟ على
+
+419
+00:31:53,160 --> 00:31:58,050
+هذا او لا على هذا السعر؟أه تصلعوا buy investor buy
+
+420
+00:31:58,050 --> 00:32:03,470
+على واحد تلاتين اربعين طيب لو راحت اه احنا بنحكي
+
+421
+00:32:03,470 --> 00:32:07,050
+على investor okay هلأ ال investor اشترع واحد
+
+422
+00:32:07,050 --> 00:32:09,790
+تلاتين اربعين هلأ لو أجينا واحدة من هالبنات أخدت
+
+423
+00:32:09,790 --> 00:32:14,630
+ال gram الذهب و راحت بس تشرب خروب من عند ال
+
+424
+00:32:14,630 --> 00:32:19,570
+alcohol هذا و راحت بس شربت الخروب و رجعت حكتله
+
+425
+00:32:19,570 --> 00:32:24,670
+please انا مابدي شيهاأنا بدي أبيعه فقداش حبيع هي
+
+426
+00:32:24,670 --> 00:32:29,410
+.. هيشري منها اوها تلاتين طب كام خسرات؟ هذه تعتبر
+
+427
+00:32:29,410 --> 00:32:35,670
+cost تعتبر ايش؟ تعتبر cost طبعا بالنسبة ال 40 هي
+
+428
+00:32:35,670 --> 00:32:40,930
+ايش؟ الربح لأنه هاي مش السوق المال financial
+
+429
+00:32:40,930 --> 00:32:43,970
+market is not for social services مش للخدمات
+
+430
+00:32:43,970 --> 00:32:47,350
+الاجتماعية مفتوحةطب قولولي والله العظيم انا روحت
+
+431
+00:32:47,350 --> 00:32:50,890
+اشرب من عند الرجال بس خروب قوللي طب روح مهناش دخل
+
+432
+00:32:50,890 --> 00:32:54,110
+فيكي بس هذا السوق بتغير قاعد هو يقولك السوق بتغير
+
+433
+00:32:54,110 --> 00:32:57,670
+يعني ايش .. اه ف you have to take your
+
+434
+00:32:57,670 --> 00:33:03,050
+responsibility اه هذه مسئوليتك okay so this is the
+
+435
+00:33:03,050 --> 00:33:09,070
+bid and ask price نحكي على the types of order لما
+
+436
+00:33:09,070 --> 00:33:14,070
+احنا ندخل السوق المالي the financial marketswe ..
+
+437
+00:33:14,070 --> 00:33:18,870
+we have to use the orders يعني مثلا انتوا بتروحوا
+
+438
+00:33:18,870 --> 00:33:23,570
+على ال .. على السوق بتاع فراساد بتكونوا بتشتريوا
+
+439
+00:33:23,570 --> 00:33:27,830
+بندرة مثلامافيش order قداش ال kilo مثلا ال kilo
+
+440
+00:33:27,830 --> 00:33:31,450
+بتنين شكل تشتريه على طول مافيش مشكلة لكن بال
+
+441
+00:33:31,450 --> 00:33:35,890
+financial market you have to know the orders that
+
+442
+00:33:35,890 --> 00:33:39,110
+applied in the financial market لازم نفهم ال
+
+443
+00:33:39,110 --> 00:33:42,490
+orders اللي مطبقة بال financial market في السوق
+
+444
+00:33:42,490 --> 00:33:46,430
+المالي في عندنا نوعين رئيسية من ال orders في عندنا
+
+445
+00:33:46,430 --> 00:33:54,000
+market order okaymarket order يعني أسعار السوق
+
+446
+00:33:54,000 --> 00:33:57,220
+الآن the current price now وفي عندنا price
+
+447
+00:33:57,220 --> 00:34:05,380
+contingent order اللي هو الأسعار فيما لو تحققت إذا
+
+448
+00:34:05,380 --> 00:34:10,100
+في عندنا أمرين الأمر الأول market order سعر السوق
+
+449
+00:34:10,100 --> 00:34:14,320
+احنا بنشتري ونبيع على المعروف في السوق السعر الآخر
+
+450
+00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:17,520
+بحدد ال investors بيعلن رغبته على البيع والشراء
+
+451
+00:34:17,520 --> 00:34:18,840
+عند أسعار هو بدهياها
+
+452
+00:34:21,420 --> 00:34:25,680
+خلينا نفهم المثال هاد انت بوهان طلعوا على المثال
+
+453
+00:34:25,680 --> 00:34:29,960
+هاد تبع الدهب، قداسة الدهب واحد و تلاتين و واحد و
+
+454
+00:34:29,960 --> 00:34:33,520
+تلاتين واربعين، يعني لو هلا مثلا الست بدها تشتري،
+
+455
+00:34:33,520 --> 00:34:35,280
+بدها تشتري على واحد و تلاتين واربعين، هذا بيسموه
+
+456
+00:34:35,280 --> 00:34:41,560
+market order، سعر السوقطب .. هلأ الست هادى حكت ..
+
+457
+00:34:41,560 --> 00:34:44,440
+اتصلت في صحابيتها قالوا كيف حالك؟ كيف انت؟ و لا
+
+458
+00:34:44,440 --> 00:34:46,900
+أنا بدي اشتري دهب تقوله اه في اخبار بتحكي ان الدهب
+
+459
+00:34:46,900 --> 00:34:52,860
+احتمال ينزل مثلا اشيل سمع و هي ايش سمعة فحكت okay
+
+460
+00:34:52,860 --> 00:34:57,140
+خليني احط order في السوق اذا ال price نزل اشتري
+
+461
+00:34:57,140 --> 00:35:02,980
+هذا ايش بيسمي contingent order فمثلا بيجيب نحكي
+
+462
+00:35:02,980 --> 00:35:07,140
+اذا ال price نزل ل 30 buy
+
+463
+00:35:10,200 --> 00:35:15,680
+بنشتري طبعا هذه الأسعار ممكن تنزل و ممكن ما تنزلش
+
+464
+00:35:15,680 --> 00:35:22,580
+ف the exercise of this price is subject to the
+
+465
+00:35:22,580 --> 00:35:27,860
+current price of the markets يعني التنفيذ من عدمه
+
+466
+00:35:27,860 --> 00:35:33,880
+هو حسب التحقق السعر الحالي يعني إذا كان السعر
+
+467
+00:35:33,880 --> 00:35:38,470
+الحالي وصلللتلاتين هيتم التنفيذ ماوصلش لتلاتين مش
+
+468
+00:35:38,470 --> 00:35:44,090
+هيتم التنفيذ okay طبعا هلأ لو كان مثلا هي كانت
+
+469
+00:35:44,090 --> 00:35:46,990
+بدها تشتري طب لو كانت بدها تبيع بدها السعر يطلع صح
+
+470
+00:35:46,990 --> 00:35:51,770
+فلو كانت بدها تبيع بتقول okay اتصلت على صاحبيتها
+
+471
+00:35:51,770 --> 00:35:54,930
+كمان مرة بعد ما هيشترت فحكيتلها احتمال الأسعار
+
+472
+00:35:54,930 --> 00:36:00,090
+تطلع لأن في مثلا معلومات بتحكي هيكالكلب ت price 31
+
+473
+00:36:00,090 --> 00:36:04,890
+و 41 فهي لما بدأت فيه تبيع على 31 فتحط order في
+
+474
+00:36:04,890 --> 00:36:13,450
+السوق sell بيع مثلا على 32 عشان تربح دولار او
+
+475
+00:36:13,450 --> 00:36:19,590
+دولار في كل جرام فممكن السعر يصل و ممكن مايصلش هاي
+
+476
+00:36:19,590 --> 00:36:25,230
+معناها ال contingent price تبقينا هك و ان شاء الله
+
+477
+00:36:25,230 --> 00:36:27,410
+اللقاء الجاي هينكمل
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/wC9PsqvIyOw_postprocess.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/wC9PsqvIyOw_postprocess.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..cfc3cc662175c6c6519a03fedfb90e1966dd07d9
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/wC9PsqvIyOw_postprocess.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1944 @@
+1
+00:00:21,240 --> 00:00:24,920
+we talk about the bond pricing المرة الأولى حكينا
+
+2
+00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:29,140
+عن bond pricing يعني كيف يتساعر السندات and how
+
+3
+00:00:29,140 --> 00:00:33,440
+the united states particularly the Wall Street
+
+4
+00:00:33,440 --> 00:00:38,120
+Journal how they price the bonds particularly the
+
+5
+00:00:38,120 --> 00:00:41,510
+treasury notes and treasury bondstoday I'm going
+
+6
+00:00:41,510 --> 00:00:45,170
+to talk in details about the bond markets يعني
+
+7
+00:00:45,170 --> 00:00:47,650
+اليوم هنحكي بتفاصيل ال bond market أسواق السندات
+
+8
+00:00:47,650 --> 00:00:50,950
+and to talk about the stock market as well و هنحكي
+
+9
+00:00:50,950 --> 00:00:54,250
+أيضا عن أسواق الأسهم I think this is very simple
+
+10
+00:00:54,250 --> 00:01:00,210
+you don't have complicated things in understanding
+
+11
+00:01:00,210 --> 00:01:03,130
+the bond market يعني مش هيكون عندنا الوضع صعب في
+
+12
+00:01:03,130 --> 00:01:07,410
+ال bond market so today I'm focusing on the bond
+
+13
+00:01:07,410 --> 00:01:11,450
+market in detailsand the stock market in details
+
+14
+00:01:11,450 --> 00:01:15,430
+fine just to remind you I talk about the main
+
+15
+00:01:15,430 --> 00:01:18,630
+difference between treasury notes and bonds حكينا
+
+16
+00:01:18,630 --> 00:01:21,570
+الفرق بين ال treasury notes و ال treasury bonds
+
+17
+00:01:21,570 --> 00:01:24,710
+التنين يتم إصدارهم من قبل ال government من قبل
+
+18
+00:01:24,710 --> 00:01:29,570
+الحكومة the treasury notes is equal or less than
+
+19
+00:01:29,570 --> 00:01:34,210
+10 years however the treasury bonds is greater
+
+20
+00:01:34,210 --> 00:01:40,350
+than 10 years to 30 yearsأesterday I logged in to
+
+21
+00:01:40,350 --> 00:01:43,630
+the Wall Street Journal and I found some bonds
+
+22
+00:01:43,630 --> 00:01:49,270
+issued or the maturity dates of some bonds up to
+
+23
+00:01:49,270 --> 00:01:54,930
+43 the day before it was 42 today yesterday I
+
+24
+00:01:54,930 --> 00:01:58,630
+showed some bonds the maturity dates of these
+
+25
+00:01:58,630 --> 00:02:03,250
+bonds up to 43I think in your free time is fine to
+
+26
+00:02:03,250 --> 00:02:09,990
+login the www.wsj.com in order to gain some
+
+27
+00:02:09,990 --> 00:02:13,330
+practical experience on how the different market
+
+28
+00:02:13,330 --> 00:02:16,330
+pricing they bond حتى ان انتوا تشوفوا من ناحية
+
+29
+00:02:16,330 --> 00:02:19,630
+العملية كيف الأسواق المالية بتعمل تسعير لأسواق
+
+30
+00:02:19,630 --> 00:02:24,680
+السنداتinflation protected treasury bonds these
+
+31
+00:02:24,680 --> 00:02:28,440
+bonds are issued to fight against the inflation
+
+32
+00:02:28,440 --> 00:02:32,180
+يعني هذه النوعية من السندات يتم إصدارها حتى تواجه
+
+33
+00:02:32,180 --> 00:02:36,580
+التدخم I don't want to focus on this type of bonds
+
+34
+00:02:36,580 --> 00:02:39,540
+أنا مش هركز على هذه أنواع السندات because this is
+
+35
+00:02:39,540 --> 00:02:43,380
+issued for a particular purposes مش هركز على هذا
+
+36
+00:02:43,380 --> 00:02:48,100
+النوع من السنداتلأنه هيكون التركيز على treasury
+
+37
+00:02:48,100 --> 00:02:50,380
+notes and bonds و على ال corporate bonds هذا
+
+38
+00:02:50,380 --> 00:02:54,480
+التركيز بتاعنا federal agency debts the same thing
+
+39
+00:02:54,480 --> 00:02:56,660
+I don't want to focus on this مش هركز على
+
+40
+00:02:56,660 --> 00:03:03,000
+international bonds international bonds هي .. هي
+
+41
+00:03:03,000 --> 00:03:07,120
+سندات دوليةحيث ال international bonds هم سندات
+
+42
+00:03:07,120 --> 00:03:12,740
+دولية يتم إصدارهم على مستوى دولي so it is marketed
+
+43
+00:03:12,740 --> 00:03:17,300
+in international markets so any company of the
+
+44
+00:03:17,300 --> 00:03:20,440
+United States أي شركة خارج الولايات المتحدة
+
+45
+00:03:20,440 --> 00:03:24,540
+الأمريكية ممكن تشتري هذا السند for instance we
+
+46
+00:03:24,540 --> 00:03:30,980
+have Yankee bondsand we have the .. the yen euro
+
+47
+00:03:30,980 --> 00:03:34,640
+bonds these bonds are traded internationally يعني
+
+48
+00:03:34,640 --> 00:03:39,040
+في مثلا عندنا سندات أصدرها اليابان شركات يابانية
+
+49
+00:03:39,040 --> 00:03:41,960
+مثلا بالدولار فبتم التداول فيها بال .. بالسوق
+
+50
+00:03:41,960 --> 00:03:46,000
+الدولي في شركات أمريكية كمان تقوم بإصدار سندات
+
+51
+00:03:46,000 --> 00:03:48,590
+خارج الولايات المتحدة الأمريكيةو هذا حكينا فيها
+
+52
+00:03:48,590 --> 00:03:51,390
+اسمها ال euro dollar bonds اللي هو ال euro dollar
+
+53
+00:03:51,390 --> 00:03:55,150
+bonds هدول بيصير فيهم traded off the united states
+
+54
+00:03:55,150 --> 00:03:59,270
+و هدول بتسميهم كمان international bonds ففي سندات
+
+55
+00:03:59,270 --> 00:04:05,450
+يتم إصدارها للتداول في مستوى العالم I talk about
+
+56
+00:04:05,450 --> 00:04:08,930
+municipal bonds اللي هو سندات البلديات and I
+
+57
+00:04:08,930 --> 00:04:12,110
+mentioned for two types of bonds حكينا على نوعين
+
+58
+00:04:12,110 --> 00:04:17,820
+من ال bonds the revenue bondsand general
+
+59
+00:04:17,820 --> 00:04:23,680
+obligations bonds the general obligation bonds as
+
+60
+00:04:23,680 --> 00:04:29,800
+you see here the
+
+61
+00:04:29,800 --> 00:04:33,220
+municipal bonds the types of bonds general
+
+62
+00:04:33,220 --> 00:04:37,960
+obligations bonds okay and this is this general
+
+63
+00:04:37,960 --> 00:04:42,320
+obligations bondsgeneral obligation bonds, this ..
+
+64
+00:04:42,320 --> 00:04:44,860
+this bond .. I will go back to the .. to the
+
+65
+00:04:44,860 --> 00:04:47,540
+previous slides just to focus on the type now
+
+66
+00:04:47,540 --> 00:04:52,340
+general obligations bonds هاي بتكون التزامات على
+
+67
+00:04:52,340 --> 00:04:55,720
+البلديات أو ال local governments الحكومة المحلية
+
+68
+00:04:56,460 --> 00:05:01,320
+and these bonds is paying back by using taxation
+
+69
+00:05:01,320 --> 00:05:04,660
+يتم تسديدها من خلال ال taxation من خلال الضريبة as
+
+70
+00:05:04,660 --> 00:05:07,460
+as you see here backed by taxing power of issuer
+
+71
+00:05:07,460 --> 00:05:12,360
+يعني البلدية نفسها بتسد قيمة السندات هذه من خلال
+
+72
+00:05:12,360 --> 00:05:17,030
+من خلال من خلال الضريبةOkay the second .. the
+
+73
+00:05:17,030 --> 00:05:18,930
+second one which is more important than the
+
+74
+00:05:18,930 --> 00:05:22,750
+previous one التاني وهو أهم من الأول بيسموها ال
+
+75
+00:05:22,750 --> 00:05:26,890
+revenue bonds ال revenue bonds هاي سندات إيرادية
+
+76
+00:05:26,890 --> 00:05:32,610
+موجودين
+
+77
+00:05:32,610 --> 00:05:39,030
+في page 36 لأ
+
+78
+00:05:39,030 --> 00:05:41,650
+اننا نحكي في تفاصيل هلأ تفاصيل
+
+79
+00:05:43,940 --> 00:05:48,820
+I will go back to them هرجعهم okay فال revenue
+
+80
+00:05:48,820 --> 00:05:55,360
+bonds backed by projects revenues يعني هي مدعومة
+
+81
+00:05:55,360 --> 00:05:59,260
+من الإيرادات بتاعة المشروع واللي هنحكي إيش
+
+82
+00:05:59,260 --> 00:06:02,340
+المشاريع اللي بيقوموا فيها or by the municipal
+
+83
+00:06:02,340 --> 00:06:06,320
+agency operating the projects هلأ الحكومة بتصدر
+
+84
+00:06:06,320 --> 00:06:10,040
+نوع من السندات اسمه ال revenue bonds اللي هو
+
+85
+00:06:10,040 --> 00:06:12,880
+السندات الإيرادية مثلا بروحوا بيفت بيعملوا مواد
+
+86
+00:06:12,880 --> 00:06:17,450
+جديدةفجزء من إيرادات الموانق بتروح للبلدية و
+
+87
+00:06:17,450 --> 00:06:21,850
+البلدية بتروح بت .. بتسد ال .. بتسد ال bonds ..
+
+88
+00:06:21,850 --> 00:06:26,470
+السندات مثلا هم بيعملوا طرق ال highways ال
+
+89
+00:06:26,470 --> 00:06:31,010
+highways و ال motorways اللي هو الطرق السريعة فجزء
+
+90
+00:06:31,010 --> 00:06:33,950
+من إيرادات الطرق السريعة مثلا الحكومة بتاخد ضريبة
+
+91
+00:06:33,950 --> 00:06:38,020
+على الطرقفجزء من الضريبة هاي بتروح لمين؟ بتروح لل
+
+92
+00:06:38,020 --> 00:06:42,820
+.. لل municipal للبلديات وبت .. تالى البلديات بي
+
+93
+00:06:42,820 --> 00:06:48,460
+.. بيسددوا الضريبة .. بيسددوا قيمة السندات كمان
+
+94
+00:06:48,460 --> 00:06:54,180
+إذا كانت مثلا الحكومة أو البلدية بتعمل مطارات عشان
+
+95
+00:06:54,180 --> 00:06:57,880
+تخلي الشركات تعمل .. تعمل investment في هذه
+
+96
+00:06:57,880 --> 00:07:01,580
+المطارات فجزء من إيرادات المطارات بتروح برضه لسداد
+
+97
+00:07:01,580 --> 00:07:06,030
+ال .. ال municipal أو بيسموها ال revenue bondsفهذا
+
+98
+00:07:06,030 --> 00:07:10,410
+يعني .. يعني كتمويل ل ال infrastructure المونية
+
+99
+00:07:10,410 --> 00:07:14,390
+بتاعتها في الدولة okay بالبلدية بتقوم إصدار سندات
+
+100
+00:07:14,390 --> 00:07:18,450
+حتى تستطيع تمول هاي المشاريع الكبيرة okay فبنسميها
+
+101
+00:07:18,450 --> 00:07:25,550
+ال revenue bonds لو رجعنا احنا شوية على ال .. ال
+
+102
+00:07:25,550 --> 00:07:29,800
+treasury notes and bondsحكينا ال municipal bonds و
+
+103
+00:07:29,800 --> 00:07:33,340
+the bond markets حكينا احنا بالأول ان في عندنا
+
+104
+00:07:33,340 --> 00:07:35,640
+municipal bonds و في عندنا corporate bonds و عندنا
+
+105
+00:07:35,640 --> 00:07:39,480
+الموردجاج just to remind you خليني بس اذاكركم ب ..
+
+106
+00:07:39,480 --> 00:07:42,380
+the big picture of the market bonds خليني اذاكركم
+
+107
+00:07:42,380 --> 00:07:48,240
+بال .. بالأسواق السنداتي بشكل عام حكينا ال bond
+
+108
+00:07:48,240 --> 00:07:53,220
+markets okay حكينا in generally we have two types
+
+109
+00:07:53,220 --> 00:07:58,350
+of bond markets اللي هو governmental bondsو
+
+110
+00:07:58,350 --> 00:08:02,170
+corporate bonds the
+
+111
+00:08:02,170 --> 00:08:06,350
+governments bonds issued by the governments or
+
+112
+00:08:06,350 --> 00:08:09,630
+local governments يعني من ال governments or local
+
+113
+00:08:09,630 --> 00:08:11,810
+governments ال local governments such as
+
+114
+00:08:11,810 --> 00:08:16,010
+municipals اللي هو البلديات ال government bonds
+
+115
+00:08:16,010 --> 00:08:23,110
+عندنا اللي هو the treasury notes and treasury
+
+116
+00:08:23,110 --> 00:08:26,590
+bonds and we have here the municipal
+
+117
+00:08:29,540 --> 00:08:34,560
+the municipal bonds includes two main bonds the
+
+118
+00:08:34,560 --> 00:08:39,760
+general obligation bonds and
+
+119
+00:08:39,760 --> 00:08:44,680
+revenue bonds and there is another type of bonds
+
+120
+00:08:44,680 --> 00:08:47,780
+called the industrial bonds this industrial bonds
+
+121
+00:08:47,780 --> 00:08:51,800
+is considered as one part of the revenue bonds
+
+122
+00:08:51,800 --> 00:08:55,300
+يعني هو نوع من أنواع ال revenue bonds اللي هو
+
+123
+00:08:55,300 --> 00:08:58,360
+industrial bonds industrial bond اللي هو سندات
+
+124
+00:08:58,360 --> 00:09:06,120
+صناعيةبنسميها industrial bonds يعني
+
+125
+00:09:06,120 --> 00:09:12,500
+.. يعني مثلا الحكومة بدها تعمل مناطق صناعية فعشان
+
+126
+00:09:12,500 --> 00:09:17,320
+يتشجع الصناعة في البلد okay فبروح بصدره industrial
+
+127
+00:09:17,320 --> 00:09:21,420
+bondsطبعا من وين بتصد ال industrial bond؟ هذا بتصد
+
+128
+00:09:21,420 --> 00:09:24,500
+من الصناعة اللي هتنشأ في ال .. في هذه المناطق
+
+129
+00:09:24,500 --> 00:09:28,040
+الصناعية فبيقوموا بيصدوا الإيرادات بتاعتهم في ال
+
+130
+00:09:28,040 --> 00:09:31,380
+corporate bonds اللي هنأيجي نحكي فيه بقى .. كمان
+
+131
+00:09:31,380 --> 00:09:39,060
+شوية اللي هو فيه عندنا secured bonds secured okay
+
+132
+00:09:39,060 --> 00:09:42,440
+secured bond يعني احنا لو نحكي عن ال corporate
+
+133
+00:09:42,440 --> 00:09:46,320
+bonds اللي هو السندات الشركات في عندنا نوعينالنوع
+
+134
+00:09:46,320 --> 00:09:51,340
+اسمه secured bond اللي هو سندات آمنة اسمها secured
+
+135
+00:09:51,340 --> 00:09:59,940
+bond وفي عندنا non secured bond سندات غير آمنة و
+
+136
+00:09:59,940 --> 00:10:03,550
+إيش الفرق بين ال secured و ال non secured؟ال
+
+137
+00:10:03,550 --> 00:10:08,030
+secured سندات آمنة يعني انه is the company which
+
+138
+00:10:08,030 --> 00:10:11,730
+issued this part of bonds has a good historical
+
+139
+00:10:11,730 --> 00:10:15,650
+profile يعني الشركة اللي أصدرت هذا النوع من السند
+
+140
+00:10:15,650 --> 00:10:20,290
+الآمن لها good profile يعني سمعتها كويسة و عندها
+
+141
+00:10:20,290 --> 00:10:23,650
+أرباح منيحة و عندها سمعة طيبة however the non
+
+142
+00:10:23,650 --> 00:10:28,390
+secured bondالسندات الغير أمنة non secured bond
+
+143
+00:10:28,390 --> 00:10:31,490
+بيكون الشركة اللي أصدرت هذه النوع من السندات شركة
+
+144
+00:10:31,490 --> 00:10:35,830
+ضعيفة وماعنداش سمعة إمنيها فبيسموها non secured
+
+145
+00:10:35,830 --> 00:10:36,510
+bond
+
+146
+00:10:40,070 --> 00:10:46,570
+again للناس اللي يعني إيجوا متأخرين the bond
+
+147
+00:10:46,570 --> 00:10:50,690
+market is classified into two main parts the first
+
+148
+00:10:50,690 --> 00:10:52,990
+one the government and the second one is the
+
+149
+00:10:52,990 --> 00:10:57,950
+corporate the government is divided for three main
+
+150
+00:10:57,950 --> 00:11:01,350
+types the municipal, the treasury bonds and the
+
+151
+00:11:01,350 --> 00:11:04,890
+treasury notes the municipal is divided for two
+
+152
+00:11:04,890 --> 00:11:08,890
+main parts revenue bonds and the general
+
+153
+00:11:08,890 --> 00:11:17,320
+obligation oneOkay the corporate bond this
+
+154
+00:11:17,320 --> 00:11:22,200
+is municipal okay this is treasury bond this is
+
+155
+00:11:22,200 --> 00:11:26,160
+treasury notes municipal اللي هو البلديات treasury
+
+156
+00:11:26,160 --> 00:11:30,740
+bonds اللي هو سندات الحكومة هي سندات الحكومة لكن
+
+157
+00:11:30,740 --> 00:11:34,300
+بنسميها notes okay I explained this before
+
+158
+00:11:35,630 --> 00:11:38,970
+municipal bonds divided for two main types بتتقسم
+
+159
+00:11:38,970 --> 00:11:41,930
+لخصمين ال revenue اللي هو الإيرادية والتانية اللي
+
+160
+00:11:41,930 --> 00:11:44,570
+هو general obligations اللي هي التزامات على
+
+161
+00:11:44,570 --> 00:11:48,070
+البلدية نفسها ال revenue في نوع واحد من ال revenue
+
+162
+00:11:48,070 --> 00:11:50,770
+اللي هو بيسميه industrial اللي هو الصناعي اللي هو
+
+163
+00:11:50,770 --> 00:11:53,950
+سندات صناعية ال corporate bonds اللي هو سندات
+
+164
+00:11:53,950 --> 00:11:57,010
+الشركات بتصدرها الشركات we have two main types
+
+165
+00:11:57,010 --> 00:11:59,610
+اللي هو عندنا secured bond وفي عندنا non secured
+
+166
+00:11:59,610 --> 00:12:05,320
+bond اللي هو سندات أمنةالغير أمينة ملاحظة بسيطة في
+
+167
+00:12:05,320 --> 00:12:11,520
+ال corporate bonds اللي هو سندات الشركات في عندنا
+
+168
+00:12:11,520 --> 00:12:15,820
+كتير أنواع لكن احنا for the limits of this level
+
+169
+00:12:15,820 --> 00:12:18,160
+عشان هذا المستوى من الطلاب because this is
+
+170
+00:12:18,160 --> 00:12:20,600
+introduction to investments لأن هي مقدمة بال
+
+171
+00:12:20,600 --> 00:12:23,480
+investments I don't want to go in details about
+
+172
+00:12:23,480 --> 00:12:27,080
+the different types of the bonds يعني أنا مش راح
+
+173
+00:12:27,080 --> 00:12:32,210
+أروح كتير تفاصيل بال bonds بأنواعهالأنه you are in
+
+174
+00:12:32,210 --> 00:12:34,510
+the introduction of investment انتوا عندكوا بس
+
+175
+00:12:34,510 --> 00:12:38,230
+مقدمة الاستثمار يعني لما تقرأوا في كتب أخرى عن ال
+
+176
+00:12:38,230 --> 00:12:42,310
+bonds you will find for instance junk bonds يعني
+
+177
+00:12:42,310 --> 00:12:46,230
+هنشوف ال junk bonds فال junk bonds هذا هو نوع من
+
+178
+00:12:46,230 --> 00:12:50,190
+أنواع ال non secured bond فمش هنحكي فيه لأنه هذا
+
+179
+00:12:50,190 --> 00:12:54,490
+شوي متقدم في ال investments municipal
+
+180
+00:13:01,070 --> 00:13:04,110
+لأنه هي من ال local governments بتنشئها، هي
+
+181
+00:13:04,110 --> 00:13:07,290
+بتنشئها ال local governments ال municipal هي أصلا
+
+182
+00:13:07,290 --> 00:13:10,350
+بتنشئها الحكومة فعشان هيك احنا قاعدين under the
+
+183
+00:13:10,350 --> 00:13:13,990
+governments بس issued by the local governments
+
+184
+00:13:13,990 --> 00:13:14,710
+okay
+
+185
+00:13:17,490 --> 00:13:20,950
+طيب، so we talk about municipal bonds, we talk
+
+186
+00:13:20,950 --> 00:13:24,470
+about corporate bonds and this mortgage and
+
+187
+00:13:24,470 --> 00:13:26,730
+mortgage-backed bonds I don't want to focus on
+
+188
+00:13:26,730 --> 00:13:29,450
+this because only the United States they issue
+
+189
+00:13:29,450 --> 00:13:34,500
+this particular bonds and the UK sometimesI talk
+
+190
+00:13:34,500 --> 00:13:38,340
+about the maturities about the treasury notes حكيت
+
+191
+00:13:38,340 --> 00:13:42,520
+عنه أصلا and I mention for the bar value of the
+
+192
+00:13:42,520 --> 00:13:46,140
+treasury notes and bonds is one thousand so don't
+
+193
+00:13:46,140 --> 00:13:50,760
+mix up between the treasury bills and treasury
+
+194
+00:13:50,760 --> 00:13:54,240
+notes the treasury bills bar value is ten thousand
+
+195
+00:13:54,240 --> 00:13:58,580
+and the bar value of the treasury notes is one
+
+196
+00:13:58,580 --> 00:14:01,960
+thousandOkay بدناش نعمل خلط بين treasury notes و
+
+197
+00:14:01,960 --> 00:14:06,340
+treasury bills Interest paid semi-annually حكينا
+
+198
+00:14:06,340 --> 00:14:10,920
+أنه بتدفع نصف سنوية وورجيناكوا مثلا المرة الفاتة
+
+199
+00:14:10,920 --> 00:14:14,900
+how we calculate this you just divide C by 2 نقسم
+
+200
+00:14:14,900 --> 00:14:17,360
+ال coupon rates على اتنين بتطلع مننا ال semi
+
+201
+00:14:17,360 --> 00:14:20,920
+-annual Quarters percentage of bar وورجيناكوا كيف
+
+202
+00:14:20,920 --> 00:14:24,880
+how we pricing them كيف نعمل تسعير and how we
+
+203
+00:14:24,880 --> 00:14:30,710
+drive the pricing system okay in your examفي
+
+204
+00:14:30,710 --> 00:14:35,870
+الامتحان بتاعكم حاطيكم tableهذا ال table جاي من ال
+
+205
+00:14:35,870 --> 00:14:40,690
+.. جاي من ال .. ال wsj.com بدي أجيبه من ال Wall
+
+206
+00:14:40,690 --> 00:14:44,370
+Street Journal و أقولكم please convert this table
+
+207
+00:14:44,370 --> 00:14:47,250
+into the pricing system حاولوا ليها الأسعار ال
+
+208
+00:14:47,250 --> 00:14:51,350
+pricing system يعني كلامي واضح بجيبكم table based
+
+209
+00:14:51,350 --> 00:14:54,650
+on the percentage as .. as this as in the
+
+210
+00:14:54,650 --> 00:14:57,770
+percentage of .. of the bar value then convert it
+
+211
+00:14:57,770 --> 00:15:00,990
+into the pricing system and I showed you how to do
+
+212
+00:15:00,990 --> 00:15:05,680
+this و أرجيتكم المرة الفاتتة how we do thisOkay if
+
+213
+00:15:05,680 --> 00:15:09,100
+you don't understand go back to the videos okay
+
+214
+00:15:09,100 --> 00:15:20,540
+and you will have the calculations okay
+
+215
+00:15:20,540 --> 00:15:26,300
+the ask yield if you want to the ask yield is
+
+216
+00:15:26,300 --> 00:15:31,880
+equal the coupon rates you can write down the
+
+217
+00:15:31,880 --> 00:15:40,380
+equation for ask yieldask yield is equal the
+
+218
+00:15:40,380 --> 00:15:50,540
+coupon divided by the ask price ال coupon اختيه ال
+
+219
+00:15:50,540 --> 00:15:56,080
+coupon من يومين احنا بنحكي في ال coupon الفائدة و
+
+220
+00:15:56,080 --> 00:15:59,420
+ال ask price اللي هو سعر الشراء for the investors
+
+221
+00:15:59,420 --> 00:16:04,040
+that's itOkay رجاء ال .. ال .. الاشي اللي بتاخدوه
+
+222
+00:16:04,040 --> 00:16:07,600
+يعني رجعوله لأنه خلاص أنا بحكيت ال ask and already
+
+223
+00:16:07,600 --> 00:16:10,220
+you know what it means ask و لما حكيت ال coupon I
+
+224
+00:16:10,220 --> 00:16:13,560
+don't need to go back on .. on .. ال coupon معروف
+
+225
+00:16:13,560 --> 00:16:18,080
+ال coupon okay و
+
+226
+00:16:18,080 --> 00:16:21,380
+أرجعتكم كيف تعمل login لهم okay هلأ المطلوب منكم
+
+227
+00:16:21,380 --> 00:16:24,360
+أنه to convert this table into the pricing system
+
+228
+00:16:24,360 --> 00:16:27,480
+that's it مطلوب منكم تعملوا ال pricing system
+
+229
+00:16:31,830 --> 00:16:35,590
+Okay so the bond markets as as I told you for the
+
+230
+00:16:35,590 --> 00:16:38,450
+inflation protected federal agency bonds just only
+
+231
+00:16:38,450 --> 00:16:41,490
+the international bonds we are talking about
+
+232
+00:16:41,490 --> 00:16:47,850
+listen here we have in the international bonds أنا
+
+233
+00:16:47,850 --> 00:16:51,490
+حكيت قبل شوية بال international bonds حكيت عن ال
+
+234
+00:16:51,490 --> 00:16:56,790
+euro bonds و ال yankee bonds ال euro bonds is bond
+
+235
+00:16:56,790 --> 00:17:04,070
+issued of the united statesيعني هي سندات تصدر خارج
+
+236
+00:17:04,070 --> 00:17:06,990
+المولايات المتحدة الأمريكية in the dollar amount
+
+237
+00:17:06,990 --> 00:17:12,330
+بقيمة الدولار and .. and I explain why some
+
+238
+00:17:12,330 --> 00:17:18,410
+institutions issued bonds or dollar bonds of the
+
+239
+00:17:18,410 --> 00:17:21,410
+United States لأنه ت escape .. ت escape from the
+
+240
+00:17:21,410 --> 00:17:24,170
+regulations of the Federal Reserve Bankيعني عشان
+
+241
+00:17:24,170 --> 00:17:27,650
+يخرجوا من سيطرة ال .. البنك الفيدرالي الأمريكي و
+
+242
+00:17:27,650 --> 00:17:31,010
+بتكون زي ما اتفضلتها انه ال .. ال .. الإيراد او ال
+
+243
+00:17:31,010 --> 00:17:34,010
+return عالي كتير في مقارنة مع inside the united
+
+244
+00:17:34,010 --> 00:17:38,050
+states ال yankee bonds which is the opposite of
+
+245
+00:17:38,050 --> 00:17:42,050
+euro bonds عكسه تمام it means non united states
+
+246
+00:17:42,050 --> 00:17:46,070
+bonds in the united states تبقى is non united
+
+247
+00:17:46,070 --> 00:17:51,570
+states companies in the united statesissued dollar
+
+248
+00:17:51,570 --> 00:17:56,430
+bonds يعني بتكون شركات ليست أمريكية يعني ممكن
+
+249
+00:17:56,430 --> 00:17:58,790
+شركات صينية تكون داخل الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية
+
+250
+00:17:58,790 --> 00:18:03,130
+تصدر bond بالدولار فهي بيسميها ايش؟ بيسميها Yankee
+
+251
+00:18:03,130 --> 00:18:07,730
+bonds طبعا Yankee هي .. is a terminology is used
+
+252
+00:18:07,730 --> 00:18:11,270
+by the .. by the financial market هي عبارة عن
+
+253
+00:18:11,270 --> 00:18:17,570
+مصطلح جاي .. هو تقريبا جاي من هنا جاي انهأي شركة
+
+254
+00:18:17,570 --> 00:18:22,150
+.. بنعطيكوا مثال مثلا .. مثلا نحكي شركة rem عارفين
+
+255
+00:18:22,150 --> 00:18:28,230
+شركة rem؟ rim .. rim .. يضلوا rim .. okay شركة rim
+
+256
+00:18:28,230 --> 00:18:30,550
+producing the blackberry
+
+257
+00:18:33,220 --> 00:18:38,080
+Rim is producing the which is non united states
+
+258
+00:18:38,080 --> 00:18:43,180
+company if rim issued bonds inside united states
+
+259
+00:18:43,180 --> 00:18:46,340
+this bond considered as a Yankee bond يعني إذا
+
+260
+00:18:46,340 --> 00:18:50,320
+كانت ريم أصدرت سنة داخل ولاية المتحدة الأمريكية
+
+261
+00:18:50,320 --> 00:18:55,980
+بيسمياش Yankee bondOkay another example if you
+
+262
+00:18:55,980 --> 00:19:01,760
+talk about Nestle عارفين شركة Nestle؟ Okay هاي إيش
+
+263
+00:19:01,760 --> 00:19:05,600
+أصلها Nestle؟ طبعا الملكية تبعتها اتغيرت مرة
+
+264
+00:19:05,600 --> 00:19:11,720
+فرنسية .. أخر إشي كانت الملكية تبعتها و if .. if
+
+265
+00:19:11,720 --> 00:19:15,080
+this company إذا هذه الشركة أصدرت bond inside the
+
+266
+00:19:15,080 --> 00:19:19,540
+United States هذا ال bond بنسميه Yankee bond فواضح
+
+267
+00:19:19,540 --> 00:19:22,360
+انكم what it means Yankee bond okay
+
+268
+00:19:24,540 --> 00:19:30,380
+and I talk about the municipal bonds the main
+
+269
+00:19:30,380 --> 00:19:35,120
+characteristics of the municipal bonds واحدة من
+
+270
+00:19:35,120 --> 00:19:39,620
+الخصائص سبعة ال municipal bonds is tax exempted
+
+271
+00:19:39,620 --> 00:19:44,820
+what it means tax exempted it means أن السند اللي
+
+272
+00:19:44,820 --> 00:19:48,540
+بتصدره البلدية هو خالي من الضريبة أو معفي من
+
+273
+00:19:48,540 --> 00:19:52,950
+الضريبةis tax exempted خالي من الدريبة so the
+
+274
+00:19:52,950 --> 00:19:58,150
+investors are comparing between the bond with a
+
+275
+00:19:58,150 --> 00:20:02,050
+tax and the bond is tax exempted يعني المستثمرين
+
+276
+00:20:02,050 --> 00:20:05,950
+يقارنوا بين نوعين من السندات السند اللي عليه دريبة
+
+277
+00:20:05,950 --> 00:20:08,750
+والسند اللي معه فيه بالدريبةيعني أي investors بدهم
+
+278
+00:20:08,750 --> 00:20:12,550
+يعمل قرار استثمار بيقارنه بين two different types
+
+279
+00:20:12,550 --> 00:20:16,250
+of bonds بيقارنه نوعين من ال bonds السند اللي عليه
+
+280
+00:20:16,250 --> 00:20:18,730
+ضريبة و السند اللي معاه فيه من الضريبة how they do
+
+281
+00:20:18,730 --> 00:20:21,610
+this كيف بيعملوا كلام هذا I will show you how they
+
+282
+00:20:21,610 --> 00:20:24,830
+do this كيف هم بيعملوا conversion between the
+
+283
+00:20:24,830 --> 00:20:28,350
+taxable bonds and non-taxable bonds or tax
+
+284
+00:20:28,350 --> 00:20:33,180
+exempted bondsOkay and this is a question in your
+
+285
+00:20:33,180 --> 00:20:36,320
+exam و هذا كمان سؤال هجيبكوا في الامتحان أنه how
+
+286
+00:20:36,320 --> 00:20:39,160
+investors compare between the taxable bonds and
+
+287
+00:20:39,160 --> 00:20:44,860
+the tax exempted bonds I will show you how يعني
+
+288
+00:20:44,860 --> 00:20:50,520
+كيف المستثمرين بيفرقوا أو بيتخذوا قرار استثمار
+
+289
+00:20:50,520 --> 00:20:56,900
+بناء على الدريبة فهم بيقارنوا بين إذا أنا مستثمرو
+
+290
+00:20:56,900 --> 00:21:01,420
+أمامي two bonds أمامي سندين سند عليه ضريبة وسند ما
+
+291
+00:21:01,420 --> 00:21:05,980
+.. مافيه من الضريبة أنه أفضل أستثمر هذا ولا هذا so
+
+292
+00:21:05,980 --> 00:21:09,480
+we cannot say yes or no unless we do some
+
+293
+00:21:09,480 --> 00:21:13,880
+calculations يعني مابنقدرش نقول yes or no بدون ما
+
+294
+00:21:13,880 --> 00:21:16,660
+نعمل some calculations I will show you how we can
+
+295
+00:21:16,660 --> 00:21:21,040
+do this we
+
+296
+00:21:21,040 --> 00:21:28,070
+cannot say this she said .. she saidthe one with
+
+297
+00:21:28,070 --> 00:21:33,690
+tax exempted is more preferable than the others we
+
+298
+00:21:33,690 --> 00:21:38,270
+cannot say this so we compare between the two
+
+299
+00:21:38,270 --> 00:21:42,670
+bonds with taxable and with tax exempted هنقارن
+
+300
+00:21:42,670 --> 00:21:47,350
+بين الاتنين how we can do this I will show you how
+
+301
+00:21:47,350 --> 00:21:50,830
+we can do this هنشوفكم .. هنشوف كيف نعمل الكلام
+
+302
+00:21:50,830 --> 00:21:57,230
+هذاطيب هلو لو احنا اعطينا رمز لل taxable bonds ..
+
+303
+00:21:57,230 --> 00:22:03,310
+non-taxable bonds RM
+
+304
+00:22:03,310 --> 00:22:06,930
+RM
+
+305
+00:22:06,930 --> 00:22:11,470
+is stand for municipal bonds يعني العائد على السند
+
+306
+00:22:11,470 --> 00:22:15,630
+اللي بتصدر البلدية and as we agree واتفقنا مع بعض
+
+307
+00:22:15,630 --> 00:22:19,570
+the municipal bond is tax exemptedيعني اتفقنا مع
+
+308
+00:22:19,570 --> 00:22:22,770
+بعض أنه السندات اللي بتصدرها البلدية ما فيها من
+
+309
+00:22:22,770 --> 00:22:26,950
+الدريبة so the return of M is to stand for the
+
+310
+00:22:26,950 --> 00:22:32,250
+municipal bonds if tax exempted if this equal X
+
+311
+00:22:32,250 --> 00:22:35,650
+for instance X is a number or the rate of return
+
+312
+00:22:35,650 --> 00:22:43,080
+and R is the taxable bondsSo again RM is tax free
+
+313
+00:22:43,080 --> 00:22:48,220
+يعني ماعلوش ضريبة و R هو عليه ضريبة and we compare
+
+314
+00:22:48,220 --> 00:22:54,760
+between two of them but this is because this has a
+
+315
+00:22:54,760 --> 00:22:58,120
+taxation so we have to pay tax so we deduct tax
+
+316
+00:22:58,120 --> 00:23:02,020
+from this لازم نختم منه ضريبة صح؟ So deducted tax
+
+317
+00:23:02,020 --> 00:23:08,930
+is one minus Tone minus T T is stand for taxation
+
+318
+00:23:08,930 --> 00:23:20,710
+يعني T تربز إلى الدريبة T if R الدريبة T stand for
+
+319
+00:23:20,710 --> 00:23:26,890
+taxation T tax R is the rate of return of the
+
+320
+00:23:26,890 --> 00:23:32,710
+municipal bondsOkay R is the taxable bonds السند
+
+321
+00:23:32,710 --> 00:23:36,050
+اللي عليه ضريبة So we are comparing between this
+
+322
+00:23:36,050 --> 00:23:40,310
+and this We are in other words احنا بنقارن بالسند
+
+323
+00:23:40,310 --> 00:23:42,550
+اللي عليه ضريبة في عائد السند اللي عليه ضريبة
+
+324
+00:23:42,550 --> 00:23:49,710
+وعائد السند اللي ماعفيه من الضريبة Okay So if this
+
+325
+00:23:49,710 --> 00:23:58,910
+equal Y it means if R is greater than RMإذا كان
+
+326
+00:23:58,910 --> 00:24:02,650
+العائد بتاع R، طبعا الـR هي إيش؟ العلي دريبة،
+
+327
+00:24:02,650 --> 00:24:10,250
+العلي دريبة is greater than RM, so we prefer R it
+
+328
+00:24:10,250 --> 00:24:17,230
+means we are not always keep our eyes in the
+
+329
+00:24:17,230 --> 00:24:20,670
+municipal bonds يعني مش دايما احنا we select
+
+330
+00:24:20,670 --> 00:24:24,310
+municipal bonds because it depends on the R after
+
+331
+00:24:24,310 --> 00:24:29,020
+taxلأنه بنحسب ال R after tax يعني قداش بعد الضريبة
+
+332
+00:24:29,020 --> 00:24:32,240
+and then after that we compare between them if R
+
+333
+00:24:32,240 --> 00:24:37,440
+is greater than RM so we go for R otherwise ..
+
+334
+00:24:37,440 --> 00:24:41,860
+otherwise يعني إذا ماكانش الكلام هذا we go for RM
+
+335
+00:24:41,860 --> 00:24:47,320
+يعني إذا كان العكس is the opposite if RM is
+
+336
+00:24:47,320 --> 00:24:53,580
+greater than RM we prefer RM this is very simple
+
+337
+00:24:56,470 --> 00:25:00,410
+which one okay
+
+338
+00:25:00,410 --> 00:25:05,930
+هلأ احنا هال R M ماعليهاش ضريبة صح و ال R اللي هي
+
+339
+00:25:05,930 --> 00:25:08,270
+اللي عليها ضريبة هيخلصنا منها الضريبة one one
+
+340
+00:25:08,270 --> 00:25:12,570
+minus tax T إذا كان الجواب let's say إذا كان
+
+341
+00:25:12,570 --> 00:25:17,710
+الجواب عندنا هان كان هان هان مثلا six percent okay
+
+342
+00:25:17,710 --> 00:25:23,790
+و هان كان after tax is seven percentSo in this
+
+343
+00:25:23,790 --> 00:25:30,410
+case R is greater than RM So we select R نختار ال
+
+344
+00:25:30,410 --> 00:25:34,490
+R Otherwise if this is wrong Otherwise إذا كان
+
+345
+00:25:34,490 --> 00:25:41,930
+العكس So RM is greater than R نختار ال R نختار ال
+
+346
+00:25:41,930 --> 00:25:48,610
+R نختار
+
+347
+00:25:48,610 --> 00:25:50,630
+ال R نختار ال R نختار ال R نختار ال R نختار ال R
+
+348
+00:25:50,630 --> 00:25:50,990
+نختار ال R نختار ال R نختار ال R نختار ال R نختار
+
+349
+00:25:50,990 --> 00:25:51,030
+ال R نختار ال R نختار ال R نختار ال R نختار ال R
+
+350
+00:25:51,030 --> 00:25:54,990
+نختار ال R نختار ال R نختار ال R نختارlet this is
+
+351
+00:25:54,990 --> 00:25:58,430
+the let T equal the investor margin tax so this is
+
+352
+00:25:58,430 --> 00:26:04,010
+T and I explain tax okay let R equal the before
+
+353
+00:26:04,010 --> 00:26:07,870
+tax return on the taxable bond اللي هو ال R شايفين
+
+354
+00:26:07,870 --> 00:26:11,030
+ال R this is before tax لما احنا بنضرب one minus T
+
+355
+00:26:11,030 --> 00:26:16,150
+بيصير after taxand RM اللي احنا شرحناها ال RM
+
+356
+00:26:16,150 --> 00:26:20,390
+شفتوها denote the municipal bonds اللي هي السند
+
+357
+00:26:20,390 --> 00:26:26,450
+بتاع البلدية وحكينا ال municipal bonds هو is tax
+
+358
+00:26:26,450 --> 00:26:32,780
+exemptedهو مافيه من الضريبة Why is tax exempted to
+
+359
+00:26:32,780 --> 00:26:36,900
+encourage investors to hold this bond؟ ليش البلدية
+
+360
+00:26:36,900 --> 00:26:40,440
+بتاع فيه من الضريبة عشان تشجع ال investors أنه
+
+361
+00:26:40,440 --> 00:26:44,560
+تحمل هذا النوع من السندات طبعا نفس ال calculation
+
+362
+00:26:44,560 --> 00:26:51,590
+if R1-Tgreater than RM then the taxable bond gives
+
+363
+00:26:51,590 --> 00:26:54,870
+a higher rate of return otherwise the municipal
+
+364
+00:26:54,870 --> 00:26:59,590
+bond is preferred زي ما أنا حكيته إذا كان R1-T
+
+365
+00:26:59,590 --> 00:27:03,310
+اللي شايفينها is greater than RM so in this case
+
+366
+00:27:03,310 --> 00:27:08,970
+we prefer the taxable bonds otherwise the tax
+
+367
+00:27:08,970 --> 00:27:13,910
+exempted bond is preferable okay how we calculate
+
+368
+00:27:13,910 --> 00:27:21,410
+theكيف ممكن نحسب اذا كان عندى انا سند one percent
+
+369
+00:27:21,410 --> 00:27:24,390
+اذا كان عندى one percent سند زى ما انتوا شايفين
+
+370
+00:27:24,390 --> 00:27:32,590
+هان سند one percent شايفين هذا ال one percent كيف
+
+371
+00:27:32,590 --> 00:27:39,070
+بدنا نعرف المقابله من السندات اللى عليها ضريبة سند
+
+372
+00:27:39,070 --> 00:27:45,560
+يعنى مثلا عندى سند مافيه من الضريبةبتعرف مقابل سند
+
+373
+00:27:45,560 --> 00:27:47,900
+عليه ضريبة، كده لازم يتساوي مع بعض، فبتسمي
+
+374
+00:27:47,900 --> 00:27:53,660
+equivalent يعني equivalent tax yield أنه متى ال ..
+
+375
+00:27:53,660 --> 00:27:57,840
+ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال two interest rates are
+
+376
+00:27:57,840 --> 00:28:02,220
+equal متى بيكونوا التانية بتساوي مع بعض، لو كان
+
+377
+00:28:02,220 --> 00:28:05,680
+عندي واحد في المية، واحد في المية tax exempted،
+
+378
+00:28:05,680 --> 00:28:13,130
+ماعليهوش ضريبة equivalent yieldهي موجودة هي the
+
+379
+00:28:13,130 --> 00:28:17,150
+equivalent taxable yield ايش معناه when احنا we
+
+380
+00:28:17,150 --> 00:28:21,030
+are in difference اتطلعوا هان اتطلعوا على ال
+
+381
+00:28:21,030 --> 00:28:24,850
+equation هادى اتطلعوا كلكوا على ال equation هلا ال
+
+382
+00:28:24,850 --> 00:28:28,670
+equation هان اللي هو R after tax اذا احنا بنصلحها
+
+383
+00:28:28,670 --> 00:28:33,990
+هي one minus T okay is greater than RM and RM is
+
+384
+00:28:33,990 --> 00:28:40,280
+greater than R so my question is whenR 1 minus T
+
+385
+00:28:40,280 --> 00:28:48,080
+is equal RM R 1 minus T is equal R هذا لما يكونوا
+
+386
+00:28:48,080 --> 00:28:52,760
+تنامت سوين RM لما يكونوا تنامت سوين so the
+
+387
+00:28:52,760 --> 00:28:55,440
+investors are in difference ايش معناه in
+
+388
+00:28:55,440 --> 00:28:58,440
+difference يعني سواء أخدوا هذا ولا أخدوا هذا نفس
+
+389
+00:28:58,440 --> 00:29:06,520
+الشيء نفس الشيء okayنريد أن نعرف R1-T وهذا R بعد
+
+390
+00:29:06,520 --> 00:29:10,160
+التجارة للمعادلين المتجارين وهذا تجارب ممكن تجارب
+
+391
+00:29:10,160 --> 00:29:13,240
+تجارب تجارب تجارب
+
+392
+00:29:13,240 --> 00:29:13,780
+تجارب تجارب تجارب تجارب تجارب تجارب تجارب تجارب
+
+393
+00:29:13,780 --> 00:29:14,100
+تجارب تجارب تجارب تجارب تجارب تجارب تجارب تجارب
+
+394
+00:29:14,100 --> 00:29:14,600
+تجارب تجارب تجارب تجارب تجارب تجارب تجارب تجارب
+
+395
+00:29:14,600 --> 00:29:16,240
+تجارب تجارب تجارب تجارب تجارب تجارب تجارب تجارب
+
+396
+00:29:16,240 --> 00:29:17,780
+تجارب تجارب تجارب تجارب تجارب تجارب تجارب تجارب
+
+397
+00:29:17,780 --> 00:29:23,780
+تجارب تجارب تج
+
+398
+00:29:24,310 --> 00:29:27,630
+interest or these yields one two three four
+
+399
+00:29:27,630 --> 00:29:31,050
+percent for the tax exempted هدول tax exempted we
+
+400
+00:29:31,050 --> 00:29:35,410
+want to know if you just hide all of these we want
+
+401
+00:29:35,410 --> 00:29:39,810
+to know what is the tax the equivalent rate for
+
+402
+00:29:39,810 --> 00:29:45,750
+the taxable one يعني بتشوف جداش العائد على ال
+
+403
+00:29:45,750 --> 00:29:48,890
+taxable على السند اللي عليه ضريبة جداش .. وين
+
+404
+00:29:48,890 --> 00:29:52,430
+بتساوىأنا بأعطيكوا الضريبة زي ما أنتوا شايفين
+
+405
+00:29:52,430 --> 00:29:57,410
+طلعواها ال marginal tax rate مرة أعطيناها 20% مرة
+
+406
+00:29:57,410 --> 00:30:03,090
+30% مرة 40 مرة 50 لأن مرات بتتغير الضريبة okay how
+
+407
+00:30:03,090 --> 00:30:08,370
+we calculate this you just follow the equation so
+
+408
+00:30:08,370 --> 00:30:14,730
+RM divided by 1 minus T يعني 1% تقسيم 1 minus T
+
+409
+00:30:14,730 --> 00:30:20,290
+اللي هو 20%خلّين إذا إنتوا حابين تتأكدوا إنه هاي
+
+410
+00:30:20,290 --> 00:30:23,830
+ال one point twenty five اللي شايفينها هان how we
+
+411
+00:30:23,830 --> 00:30:29,570
+get this one percent اللي هي ال tax exempted تقسيم
+
+412
+00:30:29,570 --> 00:30:34,530
+واحد minus اللي هي العشرين في المية twenty percent
+
+413
+00:30:35,410 --> 00:30:39,170
+بتطلع هذه how we can do the next البعديها كيف
+
+414
+00:30:39,170 --> 00:30:43,250
+هنسويها لأ the same الواحد في المية تقسيم واحد
+
+415
+00:30:43,250 --> 00:30:48,050
+minus 30 yes 30 percent and the rest و بتسوي
+
+416
+00:30:48,050 --> 00:30:52,430
+الكلام هذا كله طيب معناه الكلام بعد ما نخلص ال
+
+417
+00:30:52,430 --> 00:30:55,810
+table بعد
+
+418
+00:30:55,810 --> 00:31:00,890
+ما نخلص ال table it meansانتبهوا هان one point
+
+419
+00:31:00,890 --> 00:31:05,290
+twenty five percent taxable bond is equal one
+
+420
+00:31:05,290 --> 00:31:11,790
+percent tax exempted bond يعني لو احنا أخدنا سند
+
+421
+00:31:11,790 --> 00:31:16,010
+عليه ضريبة الواحد فاصلة اتنين فاصلة خمسة after tax
+
+422
+00:31:16,010 --> 00:31:22,930
+هيساوي واحد فلمية على سند معفي من الضريبة لو احنا
+
+423
+00:31:22,930 --> 00:31:28,670
+أخدنا هان كمانلو أخدنا مثلا هنا لعند 4% لعند 40%
+
+424
+00:31:28,670 --> 00:31:34,890
+الدريبة سند بيعطيني سند عليه دريبة 6.67% هو نفسه
+
+425
+00:31:34,890 --> 00:31:40,530
+هيساوي 4% إذا كان ماعفي من الدريبة لو أخدنا ال 10%
+
+426
+00:31:40,530 --> 00:31:46,550
+هذا المثال this bond is taxable bond هذا عليه
+
+427
+00:31:46,550 --> 00:31:51,670
+دريبة is equal 5% if it is tax exempted يعني 5%
+
+428
+00:31:51,670 --> 00:31:54,830
+بتسوى 10% في حالة إعفاء الدريبة
+
+429
+00:32:00,290 --> 00:32:08,950
+Okay؟ كيف؟ where أي واحدة؟ هذه؟ نفس الطريقة هذه
+
+430
+00:32:08,950 --> 00:32:12,510
+نفسي أنا بس ورجيتك واحدة تانية مش هورجيك الكل
+
+431
+00:32:12,510 --> 00:32:15,850
+طلعنا
+
+432
+00:32:15,850 --> 00:32:23,510
+ال equivalence طلعنا هذه ال T طلعنا أنه متى هذا
+
+433
+00:32:23,510 --> 00:32:27,170
+بيساوي هذاإيش ال rates بيكون مثلا أنا ال R مش
+
+434
+00:32:27,170 --> 00:32:33,130
+عارفها I don't know this R I know RM I know T so
+
+435
+00:32:33,130 --> 00:32:37,930
+only things I need this so in this case R is equal
+
+436
+00:32:37,930 --> 00:32:47,570
+من المعادلة RM divided by 1 minus T شو؟
+
+437
+00:32:49,920 --> 00:32:53,580
+الواحد في اكتشاف اه هي tax exempted شايفها هي tax
+
+438
+00:32:53,580 --> 00:32:58,260
+exempted نرجع للمعادلة يا برات برات هذه very
+
+439
+00:32:58,260 --> 00:33:04,280
+simple mathematics mathematics بتاعة very simple
+
+440
+00:33:04,280 --> 00:33:08,980
+تبوا علينا شوفوا
+
+441
+00:33:08,980 --> 00:33:16,080
+رياضيا هلأ كان عندى Rone minus T should equal RM
+
+442
+00:33:16,080 --> 00:33:23,920
+مظبوط؟ زي ما علمونا في الرياضيات if I want R so R
+
+443
+00:33:23,920 --> 00:33:28,600
+is equal RM و هذه بتروح تحت هذه صح؟ one minus T
+
+444
+00:33:28,600 --> 00:33:35,160
+فأنا كأني بسأل what is the rate of taxable bond if
+
+445
+00:33:36,320 --> 00:33:41,460
+R is R after tax equal RM ففي الحالة هذه أنا مش
+
+446
+00:33:41,460 --> 00:33:45,640
+عارف ال R ف RM divided by 1 minus T فهذه
+
+447
+00:33:45,640 --> 00:33:48,020
+Mathematics أنا كنت أفكر أن أنت you know what it
+
+448
+00:33:48,020 --> 00:33:51,000
+means mathematically يعني أنا بفكر أن أنت بتعرف
+
+449
+00:33:51,000 --> 00:33:56,020
+Mathematically فأنا
+
+450
+00:33:56,020 --> 00:34:05,500
+مش عارف هذه I don't know this بالظبط كده this one
+
+451
+00:34:06,800 --> 00:34:10,740
+هيبقى انا .. انا هذا ال .. ال table هذا مش موجود
+
+452
+00:34:10,740 --> 00:34:15,440
+اصلا and I just give you the tax exempted و بعطيك
+
+453
+00:34:15,440 --> 00:34:19,640
+الدريبة and I'm asking you what is the equivalent
+
+454
+00:34:19,640 --> 00:34:24,280
+rate of return if you know this بال equivalent
+
+455
+00:34:24,280 --> 00:34:30,260
+rate of return يعني متى ال R هتساوي ال RM you
+
+456
+00:34:30,260 --> 00:34:35,540
+understand؟ بس ال RM هي النمر اللي بيبقى بالعالم
+
+457
+00:34:44,700 --> 00:34:50,480
+خلّينا .. خلّينا ال investors تبقوا علينا ال
+
+458
+00:34:50,480 --> 00:34:56,300
+investors بالاخير معنيين في العائد عندهم انت عندك
+
+459
+00:34:56,300 --> 00:35:01,670
+سندين سند عليه دريبة و سند ماعليهش دريبةمش دايما
+
+460
+00:35:01,670 --> 00:35:04,850
+السند اللي ماعنوش ضريبة is preferable مش .. مش
+
+461
+00:35:04,850 --> 00:35:08,610
+دايما بنات مش دايما السند اللي عليه اللي معاه فيه
+
+462
+00:35:08,610 --> 00:35:12,290
+مرة ضريبة هو كويس فال investors أول ما بيطلع لازم
+
+463
+00:35:12,290 --> 00:35:16,370
+يحسب ال return من هاد و ال return من هاد و بيعمل
+
+464
+00:35:16,370 --> 00:35:19,790
+comparison between them إذا كان ال return من ال
+
+465
+00:35:19,790 --> 00:35:23,150
+taxable أفضل فأنا بروح على ال taxable if the
+
+466
+00:35:23,150 --> 00:35:27,010
+return of the exempted so I prefer the exempted
+
+467
+00:35:27,010 --> 00:35:30,680
+لأن ال .. the ..we assume that the investors are
+
+468
+00:35:30,680 --> 00:35:34,820
+rational يعني بالعربي يا بنات لو أنتوا روحتوا على
+
+469
+00:35:34,820 --> 00:35:40,620
+البلد بدكم تشتريوا a t-shirt ف how much this one
+
+470
+00:35:40,620 --> 00:35:43,740
+this is twenty شاكل and another one say this is
+
+471
+00:35:43,740 --> 00:35:47,600
+twenty five شاكل so which you prefer يعني الأول
+
+472
+00:35:47,600 --> 00:35:49,760
+حكواكوا عشرين شاكل و التاني حكواكوا خمسة و عشرين
+
+473
+00:35:49,760 --> 00:35:54,640
+شاكل عاملين بتروحوالأ أبو العشرين طيب if you have
+
+474
+00:35:54,640 --> 00:35:58,900
+two projects لو كان عندي مشروعين مشروع بيعطيني 10%
+
+475
+00:35:58,900 --> 00:36:04,520
+ومشروع بيعطيني 12% اي مشروع أروح؟ أبو 12% and this
+
+476
+00:36:04,520 --> 00:36:08,840
+is the same لو كان عندي سندين واحد بيعطيني اتناشر
+
+477
+00:36:08,840 --> 00:36:10,660
+في المية وواحد عشر في المية بروح أبو اتناشر في
+
+478
+00:36:10,660 --> 00:36:14,180
+المية but the problem is we have taxable and we
+
+479
+00:36:14,180 --> 00:36:18,940
+have non-taxable so we justdo the taxable one
+
+480
+00:36:18,940 --> 00:36:21,760
+calculate the taxation then what is the equivalent
+
+481
+00:36:21,760 --> 00:36:27,220
+rate of return just to conclude احنا حكينا على ال
+
+482
+00:36:27,220 --> 00:36:30,220
+bond market و حكينا على ال governments ال
+
+483
+00:36:30,220 --> 00:36:32,860
+municipal bonds و حكينا على ال treasury notes و
+
+484
+00:36:32,860 --> 00:36:37,580
+treasury bills and that's it in the in the next in
+
+485
+00:36:37,580 --> 00:36:39,460
+the next meeting I will focus on the corporate
+
+486
+00:36:39,460 --> 00:36:40,900
+bonds and stocks
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/zHTFlW9TgOY_postprocess.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/zHTFlW9TgOY_postprocess.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..657481f12c52f958fe6152e4fcdb1670480638ed
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaXMtLxRSoV_pW-SkLTtZg7/zHTFlW9TgOY_postprocess.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1656 @@
+1
+00:00:20,790 --> 00:00:23,450
+هنحكي بال introduction to risk return and the
+
+2
+00:00:23,450 --> 00:00:28,270
+historical records هذا الموضوع تبعت chapter 5
+
+3
+00:00:28,270 --> 00:00:36,650
+مقدمة في إدارة المخاطر والعائد وكيف نحسب العائد
+
+4
+00:00:36,650 --> 00:00:41,930
+التاريخي للشركات okay؟ إيش اللي بيحدد أسعار
+
+5
+00:00:41,930 --> 00:00:45,510
+الفوائد؟ interest rate determinants إيش اللي بيحدد
+
+6
+00:00:45,510 --> 00:00:50,350
+أسعار الفوائد؟بحدد أسعار الفوائد اللي هو supply
+
+7
+00:00:50,350 --> 00:00:55,670
+and demand بشكل عام ال supply and demand العرض
+
+8
+00:00:55,670 --> 00:01:01,430
+والطلب طبعا ال
+
+9
+00:01:01,430 --> 00:01:06,590
+supply العرض
+
+10
+00:01:06,590 --> 00:01:15,940
+يعني الشركات بتنتجOkay؟ و بالطرف الآخر ال .. ال ..
+
+11
+00:01:15,940 --> 00:01:20,300
+ال business بي .. بيستهلكوا هذا ال .. ال إنتاج
+
+12
+00:01:20,300 --> 00:01:25,000
+بالنسبة ل ال interest rate determinant عشان نفهم
+
+13
+00:01:25,000 --> 00:01:30,180
+العلاقة إيش ال supply و إيش ال demand علاقة بسيطة
+
+14
+00:01:30,180 --> 00:01:35,320
+مش .. مش .. مش صعبة لكن بدنا نفكر فيها ب .. بهذا
+
+15
+00:01:35,320 --> 00:01:35,720
+الطريقة
+
+16
+00:01:38,950 --> 00:01:43,610
+ال households هم ال savers لو جينا احنا حكيين ال
+
+17
+00:01:43,610 --> 00:01:47,490
+households هم
+
+18
+00:01:47,490 --> 00:01:55,730
+الناس اللي عندهم saving عندهم ايش؟ saving so
+
+19
+00:01:55,730 --> 00:02:02,850
+because they have saving they supply the money to
+
+20
+00:02:02,850 --> 00:02:04,390
+business
+
+21
+00:02:08,100 --> 00:02:13,140
+إذا زي ما إحنا شايفين ال .. ال household they have
+
+22
+00:02:13,140 --> 00:02:16,880
+the .. the .. the money okay so they supply the
+
+23
+00:02:16,880 --> 00:02:23,460
+money to the business fine and in the opposite
+
+24
+00:02:23,460 --> 00:02:25,880
+there is a demand
+
+25
+00:02:28,480 --> 00:02:31,760
+there is a demand by the business on the money في
+
+26
+00:02:31,760 --> 00:02:36,240
+طلب من ال business الشركات الشركات بتطلب الأموال
+
+27
+00:02:36,240 --> 00:02:39,300
+هذه عشان يعملوا starting up يعملوا مشاريعهم
+
+28
+00:02:39,300 --> 00:02:45,940
+expansion يتوسعوا and so on لذن هذه العلاقة بين ال
+
+29
+00:02:45,940 --> 00:02:50,300
+interest rate وال supply and demand طيب إذا ال
+
+30
+00:02:50,300 --> 00:02:54,080
+supply زاد إذا احنا أخدنا بعين الاعتبار the supply
+
+31
+00:02:54,080 --> 00:03:00,080
+if the supply increaseال I ال interest rates
+
+32
+00:03:00,080 --> 00:03:05,180
+بتنخفض هذا طبيعي تمام؟ هذا يعرفينه القوانين العرض
+
+33
+00:03:05,180 --> 00:03:11,380
+و الطلب ال supply العرض و ال demand الطلب ال
+
+34
+00:03:11,380 --> 00:03:16,120
+household هم ال ناس ال savers اللي هم المدخرين و
+
+35
+00:03:16,120 --> 00:03:20,640
+ال business هم الشركات فالناس المدخرين اللي معهم
+
+36
+00:03:20,640 --> 00:03:26,460
+فلوس و هذا شرحناه ب chapter 2أذكركوا ب chapter two
+
+37
+00:03:26,460 --> 00:03:30,260
+لما احنا كنا نحكي ال savers بروحوا على ال
+
+38
+00:03:30,260 --> 00:03:33,460
+financial intermediaries مظبوط و ال financial
+
+39
+00:03:33,460 --> 00:03:35,880
+intermediaries بروحوا على .. بودوا الفلوس تبعتهم
+
+40
+00:03:35,880 --> 00:03:42,410
+على الناس اللي عندهم deficit، في عندهم عجزةOkay so
+
+41
+00:03:42,410 --> 00:03:46,470
+the .. the fund flows from the savers to the .. to
+
+42
+00:03:46,470 --> 00:03:51,650
+the deficit يعني الشركات هلأ لما بدي تعمل استثمار
+
+43
+00:03:51,650 --> 00:03:55,630
+بدها .. بدها فلوس صح ولا لأ طب الفلوس من وم ده
+
+44
+00:03:55,630 --> 00:03:59,370
+تيجي؟ ده تيجي من ال saving or من ال savers إذا ال
+
+45
+00:03:59,370 --> 00:04:03,610
+savers فلوسهم كتير okay يعني في فلوس كتير عند ال
+
+46
+00:04:03,610 --> 00:04:08,420
+savers مع الكلام ال interest rate هتنخفضOkay إذا
+
+47
+00:04:08,420 --> 00:04:12,920
+ال demand كان أعلى if the demand greater than إذا
+
+48
+00:04:12,920 --> 00:04:17,420
+كان ال D greater than S يعني ال demand أكبر من ال
+
+49
+00:04:17,420 --> 00:04:23,980
+saving فبصير ال interest rate إيش؟ ال I ترتفع فهذا
+
+50
+00:04:23,980 --> 00:04:28,100
+زي ما نجيبكوا شفته في الامتحان إنه زي ال correct
+
+51
+00:04:28,100 --> 00:04:32,900
+نجيبكم correct the statement واضحة if the demand
+
+52
+00:04:32,900 --> 00:04:37,010
+greater than the savingso the interest rate will
+
+53
+00:04:37,010 --> 00:04:43,050
+go down is this right if the demand greater than
+
+54
+00:04:43,050 --> 00:04:48,230
+the supply so the interest rate will go down no
+
+55
+00:04:48,230 --> 00:04:53,210
+it's the opposite so when this the demand exceed
+
+56
+00:04:53,210 --> 00:04:57,110
+the supply طبعا نفس الجملة so the interest rate
+
+57
+00:04:57,110 --> 00:05:02,490
+will go upيعني بيكون الطلب أكبر من العرض فبيكون
+
+58
+00:05:02,490 --> 00:05:06,430
+السعر الفائد بيرتفع الطلب على الأموال يعني هلأ
+
+59
+00:05:06,430 --> 00:05:11,450
+مثلا نيجي مثال Bank فلسطين أو Bank الإسلامي عنده
+
+60
+00:05:11,450 --> 00:05:17,770
+مثلا مائة ألف دولار من ال savers ال savers هلأ
+
+61
+00:05:17,770 --> 00:05:21,550
+الناس اللي .. اللي .. اللي بدهم ياخدوا قروض اللي
+
+62
+00:05:21,550 --> 00:05:24,570
+هم ال business or people they asking two hundred
+
+63
+00:05:24,570 --> 00:05:29,150
+thousand dollarبدهم 200 ألف دولار ففي الحالة هذه
+
+64
+00:05:29,150 --> 00:05:33,670
+ال .. ال demand is greater than the supply so what
+
+65
+00:05:33,670 --> 00:05:36,130
+bank of Palestine will do is to increase the
+
+66
+00:05:36,130 --> 00:05:41,830
+interest rate هيروح يرفع سعر الفائدة when .. when
+
+67
+00:05:41,830 --> 00:05:44,010
+the bank of Palestine increase the interest rate
+
+68
+00:05:44,010 --> 00:05:47,450
+some .. some peoplereluctant to do it or to take
+
+69
+00:05:47,450 --> 00:05:52,090
+the loan بعض الناس هيترددوا في أخذ القروض وبالتالي
+
+70
+00:05:52,090 --> 00:05:55,390
+هيفضل يصير في equilibrium equilibrium يعني معناه
+
+71
+00:05:55,390 --> 00:05:59,470
+هيصير فيه توازن بين العرض و الطلب if the opposite
+
+72
+00:05:59,470 --> 00:06:03,330
+إذا كان الأكس يعني bank of palestine has two
+
+73
+00:06:03,330 --> 00:06:07,170
+hundred thousands and people wants one hundred
+
+74
+00:06:07,170 --> 00:06:11,370
+thousands so bank of palestine will make the price
+
+75
+00:06:11,370 --> 00:06:14,700
+or the interest rate to go downهيخلّي سعر الفائدة
+
+76
+00:06:14,700 --> 00:06:21,200
+تنخفض yes
+
+77
+00:06:21,200 --> 00:06:27,040
+الفائدة بتتناسب ترضي مع ال demand صح و بتتناسب
+
+78
+00:06:27,040 --> 00:06:32,000
+عكسي okay so it means in the English language it
+
+79
+00:06:32,000 --> 00:06:38,200
+means the interest rate has a positive function
+
+80
+00:06:38,200 --> 00:06:42,560
+with the demandHowever it has a negative function
+
+81
+00:06:42,560 --> 00:06:47,380
+with the supply، okay؟
+
+82
+00:06:47,380 --> 00:06:51,820
+في حد عنده سؤال؟
+
+83
+00:06:51,820 --> 00:06:55,800
+ال governments،
+
+84
+00:06:55,800 --> 00:07:01,520
+but this is .. this
+
+85
+00:07:01,520 --> 00:07:04,860
+is fine before the intervention of the governments
+
+86
+00:07:05,970 --> 00:07:08,910
+because at the end of the day the government has
+
+87
+00:07:08,910 --> 00:07:12,870
+the big hands on influence on the interest rates
+
+88
+00:07:12,870 --> 00:07:16,850
+يعني هذا كلام صحيح بعيد عن تدخل ال government بعيد
+
+89
+00:07:16,850 --> 00:07:20,270
+عن تدخل الحكومة لأن الحكومة لها ال big hands or
+
+90
+00:07:20,270 --> 00:07:23,490
+the long hands اللي لها اليد الطولة في التأثير على
+
+91
+00:07:23,490 --> 00:07:26,630
+أسعار الفوائد because there is central bank لأن
+
+92
+00:07:26,630 --> 00:07:29,920
+فيه البنك المركزي and the central bankcontrol over
+
+93
+00:07:29,920 --> 00:07:32,640
+the interest rates and there is the minister of
+
+94
+00:07:32,640 --> 00:07:35,140
+finance, minister of finance has the monetary
+
+95
+00:07:35,140 --> 00:07:40,440
+policy بيأثر من خلال السياسات المالية so all of
+
+96
+00:07:40,440 --> 00:07:44,340
+these policies influence on the interest rates
+
+97
+00:07:44,340 --> 00:07:49,680
+بتأثر على ال interest ratesSo the government's net
+
+98
+00:07:49,680 --> 00:07:53,140
+supply and demand has big influence on the
+
+99
+00:07:53,140 --> 00:07:57,440
+interest rates خلّينا ناخد for instance if the
+
+100
+00:07:57,440 --> 00:08:01,040
+government observe that the interest rate is going
+
+101
+00:08:01,040 --> 00:08:04,680
+up إذا
+
+102
+00:08:04,680 --> 00:08:06,720
+ال government لاحظت إنه ال interest rate قاعدة
+
+103
+00:08:06,720 --> 00:08:12,780
+بتطلع وكل ما ال investment ال interest rate is
+
+104
+00:08:12,780 --> 00:08:16,970
+going up be careful herewhen the interest rate is
+
+105
+00:08:16,970 --> 00:08:25,250
+going up people they .. they reluctant to get
+
+106
+00:08:25,250 --> 00:08:28,410
+loans from the banks يعني كل ما ال interest rate
+
+107
+00:08:28,410 --> 00:08:31,950
+بتطلع الناس بي .. بيبتعدوا عن البنوك لياخدوا قروض
+
+108
+00:08:31,950 --> 00:08:36,810
+والشركات بتبدأ كمان ان هى تبتعد وبالتالي ال
+
+109
+00:08:36,810 --> 00:08:39,470
+investment بنخفض ال investments
+
+110
+00:08:42,620 --> 00:08:48,300
+in this case the governments cannot leave their
+
+111
+00:08:48,300 --> 00:08:52,340
+hands off ايش معناه leaves their hands off يعني
+
+112
+00:08:52,340 --> 00:08:57,020
+بتتركش ايديها مكتوفين so they intervene in this
+
+113
+00:08:57,020 --> 00:09:03,820
+بتدخله okay for instance the governments the
+
+114
+00:09:03,820 --> 00:09:07,140
+government intervene by supplying the banks
+
+115
+00:09:07,140 --> 00:09:12,370
+بيعملوا supplyingأه and the government sometimes
+
+116
+00:09:12,370 --> 00:09:16,190
+intervene directly and indirectly بت .. بتدخله
+
+117
+00:09:16,190 --> 00:09:20,330
+directly or indirectly يعني يا أما تدخل مباشر يا
+
+118
+00:09:20,330 --> 00:09:25,330
+أما تدخل غير مباشر okay as .. as we say here
+
+119
+00:09:25,330 --> 00:09:30,930
+supply and demand when they observe the liquidity
+
+120
+00:09:30,930 --> 00:09:35,650
+which is .. the liquidity is one of the .. the
+
+121
+00:09:35,650 --> 00:09:41,790
+measures of the supplyOkay هذه ال liquidity when
+
+122
+00:09:41,790 --> 00:09:45,330
+they observe the liquidity is growing up you know
+
+123
+00:09:45,330 --> 00:09:49,530
+what it means growing up يعني بتكبر so they try to
+
+124
+00:09:49,530 --> 00:09:53,670
+intervene to absorb this liquidity بتدخله عشان to
+
+125
+00:09:53,670 --> 00:09:58,670
+shrink to shrink this يتقلصوا يعني بنفسوها شوية
+
+126
+00:09:58,670 --> 00:10:03,990
+okay and when they observe this liquidity shrink
+
+127
+00:10:03,990 --> 00:10:09,690
+they start to blow it upplot it up يعني بيصيروا
+
+128
+00:10:09,690 --> 00:10:12,830
+ينفخوا في ال .. and to make this greater than
+
+129
+00:10:12,830 --> 00:10:17,010
+before يعني بالأخير the government intervene to
+
+130
+00:10:17,010 --> 00:10:21,210
+try to make the balance interest تعمل balance
+
+131
+00:10:21,210 --> 00:10:27,190
+interest okay so this is the idea of the interest
+
+132
+00:10:27,190 --> 00:10:34,370
+rate determinant okay so
+
+133
+00:10:34,370 --> 00:10:37,690
+any question here okay أي سؤال؟
+
+134
+00:10:42,720 --> 00:10:46,340
+So again just to summarize what I'm saying
+
+135
+00:10:51,890 --> 00:10:55,350
+هيتدخلوا ب two policies هيتدخلوا في ال monitor مش
+
+136
+00:10:55,350 --> 00:10:58,530
+موضوعنا بس انا هجاوبك مش موضوعنا how they .. the
+
+137
+00:10:58,530 --> 00:11:01,370
+government intervene to control over the interest
+
+138
+00:11:01,370 --> 00:11:05,210
+rates but they are using two different policies
+
+139
+00:11:05,210 --> 00:11:08,210
+يعني هم مش .. مش .. مش موضوعنا احنا كيف ال
+
+140
+00:11:08,210 --> 00:11:10,890
+government intervene لأن هذا بال public finance
+
+141
+00:11:10,890 --> 00:11:13,490
+بتاخدوها هذا بالمالية العامة المفروض بتاخدوها او
+
+142
+00:11:13,490 --> 00:11:17,150
+بال .. بال economics او بال اقتصاد public finance
+
+143
+00:11:17,150 --> 00:11:22,750
+او macro economics اقتصاد كلهbut the idea is here
+
+144
+00:11:22,750 --> 00:11:28,470
+the government intervene by using monetary policy
+
+145
+00:11:28,470 --> 00:11:38,610
+okay and monetary policy and financial policy yes
+
+146
+00:11:42,500 --> 00:11:44,700
+so they are using two different types of policies
+
+147
+00:11:44,700 --> 00:11:49,740
+monetary policy and financial policy بتدخلوا في ال
+
+148
+00:11:49,740 --> 00:11:52,740
+monetary policy و في ال financial policy ال
+
+149
+00:11:52,740 --> 00:11:55,800
+monetary policy اللي هي السياسة النقدية ال
+
+150
+00:11:55,800 --> 00:11:59,340
+financial policy هي السياسة المالية so the
+
+151
+00:11:59,340 --> 00:12:02,760
+financial policy here is running by the minister
+
+152
+00:12:02,760 --> 00:12:06,880
+of finance and the monetary policy is running by
+
+153
+00:12:06,880 --> 00:12:10,820
+the central bankيعني السياسة النخدية بتتم التحكم
+
+154
+00:12:10,820 --> 00:12:15,120
+فيها من قبل البنك المركزي و ال financial policy is
+
+155
+00:12:15,120 --> 00:12:18,920
+running by the ministry of finance من خلال وزارة
+
+156
+00:12:18,920 --> 00:12:23,240
+المالية okay so this is the relationship by using
+
+157
+00:12:23,240 --> 00:12:25,000
+the two different types of policies
+
+158
+00:12:28,190 --> 00:12:32,770
+the government can control over the liquidity or
+
+159
+00:12:32,770 --> 00:12:35,930
+can control over the interest rates بتدخله بال ..
+
+160
+00:12:35,930 --> 00:12:40,050
+بال .. بال interest rates the advanced economic
+
+161
+00:12:40,050 --> 00:12:43,830
+they intervene indirectly and influence on the
+
+162
+00:12:43,830 --> 00:12:48,410
+interest rates خدوا بالكم يعني بالاختصاديات in the
+
+163
+00:12:48,410 --> 00:12:51,230
+developed countries يعني في الدول المتقدمة in the
+
+164
+00:12:51,230 --> 00:12:55,610
+developed countries they intervene by using
+
+165
+00:12:55,610 --> 00:13:02,370
+indirect policiesبتدخله باستخدام وسياسات غير
+
+166
+00:13:02,370 --> 00:13:07,290
+مباشرة however العكس however in the less developed
+
+167
+00:13:07,290 --> 00:13:11,030
+countries or in developing countries they use the
+
+168
+00:13:11,030 --> 00:13:15,590
+direct influence on the either financial policy
+
+169
+00:13:15,590 --> 00:13:21,990
+and the monetary policyOkay so this is the
+
+170
+00:13:21,990 --> 00:13:26,970
+interest rates again there are other determinants
+
+171
+00:13:26,970 --> 00:13:30,230
+of the interest rates the other determinants these
+
+172
+00:13:30,230 --> 00:13:38,250
+determinants for instance such
+
+173
+00:13:38,250 --> 00:13:42,650
+inflation واحدة من ال determinants ال inflation
+
+174
+00:13:43,970 --> 00:13:47,370
+بتأثر ال inflation ال inflation زي ما انتوا شايفين
+
+175
+00:13:47,370 --> 00:13:51,430
+is the increase in the liquidity حد بعرف شو معناه
+
+176
+00:13:51,430 --> 00:13:59,590
+ال inflation تضخم؟ شو هو التضخم؟ طيب انا بده يعني
+
+177
+00:13:59,590 --> 00:14:04,610
+نقشوني هيك حتة حتة عشان انا مش فاهم ال inflation
+
+178
+00:14:04,610 --> 00:14:09,130
+so I need to understand what it means inflation as
+
+179
+00:14:09,130 --> 00:14:12,940
+she said what did you sayالتفاهمة اللي موجودة في
+
+180
+00:14:12,940 --> 00:14:18,380
+الأسعار طب أنا بقولك هذا مش inflation خليني ..
+
+181
+00:14:18,380 --> 00:14:22,140
+يمكن كلامك صح يمكن كلامك صح بقى I'm .. I'm just
+
+182
+00:14:22,140 --> 00:14:25,480
+try to see to what level you understand what it
+
+183
+00:14:25,480 --> 00:14:29,300
+means inflation يعني أنا بحاول أوصل لقداش انت
+
+184
+00:14:29,300 --> 00:14:33,560
+فاهمة في ال inflation okay انتفضت واشتراقية
+
+185
+00:14:33,560 --> 00:14:36,780
+للإنسان وهي كلامه عن طول تذكيره كان مستمر وعلى
+
+186
+00:14:36,780 --> 00:14:42,780
+سعارة عامة .. عامة الخدماتطب إذا كان .. طب خلينا
+
+187
+00:14:42,780 --> 00:14:47,160
+نحكي بال .. ب .. بأوروبا مثلا و ببعض الدول الأسعار
+
+188
+00:14:47,160 --> 00:14:50,880
+بترتفع لكن ممكن ما نعتبره inflation أو ممكن نعتبره
+
+189
+00:14:50,880 --> 00:14:54,860
+inflation .. تفضل انا بعض النقطات أخطر ان يكون
+
+190
+00:14:54,860 --> 00:14:59,440
+السبع أو الخدمة قليلة .. تمام فالأسعار بتبدأ ترتفع
+
+191
+00:14:59,440 --> 00:15:04,370
+.. يعني هو بكون نمكنبس إنه يعني قانيل السلع و هو
+
+192
+00:15:04,370 --> 00:15:07,310
+بتدفع أكتر أكتر عشان يبسل عليها فتبسيل ارتفاع كل
+
+193
+00:15:07,310 --> 00:15:11,010
+الأسعار طب و هلا سؤال هل .. هل .. هل ال .. ال ..
+
+194
+00:15:11,010 --> 00:15:14,090
+ال .. ارتفاع ال inflation هذا كويس و لا مش كويس؟
+
+195
+00:15:14,090 --> 00:15:21,070
+جاوبوني هيك بصراحة ال inflation is .. is a .. a
+
+196
+00:15:21,070 --> 00:15:23,730
+good signal to the economy or a bad signal؟
+
+197
+00:15:30,060 --> 00:15:32,920
+خلينا نسمع .. نسمع الكلام .. تفضل .. بس أنا بس لأ
+
+198
+00:15:32,920 --> 00:15:36,140
+أعمل قراياتين في أقل من أوروبا بس يكون الدخل ..
+
+199
+00:15:36,140 --> 00:15:38,580
+مثلا الدخل يجب أنه كبير .. الأسعار كبيرة .. تمام
+
+200
+00:15:38,580 --> 00:15:40,900
+.. من هناك على الدخل المدرسي أو الدولي .. يكون
+
+201
+00:15:40,900 --> 00:15:47,900
+الدخل أقل من .. من الأسعار المراجية .. اه
+
+202
+00:15:47,900 --> 00:15:53,060
+.. طيب تفضل .. خصوصا في أوروبا .. في بنينا ..
+
+203
+00:15:53,060 --> 00:15:56,320
+المؤسسة اللي بتوفيها أسعار عقرة .. هذا السبب ليش
+
+204
+00:15:56,320 --> 00:15:56,900
+في بنينا؟
+
+205
+00:16:00,360 --> 00:16:04,920
+الانفلاشن الكلامكوا مية في المية صحيح لكن بنضيف
+
+206
+00:16:04,920 --> 00:16:09,320
+شوية تعديلات عليهم الانفلاشن is a good sign not a
+
+207
+00:16:09,320 --> 00:16:14,940
+bad sign انا يمكن تتفاجأوا ان احنا بنحكي بالكلام
+
+208
+00:16:14,940 --> 00:16:22,680
+عنه لأنه إيجابي للانفلاشن مش غلط يعني but to a
+
+209
+00:16:22,680 --> 00:16:28,490
+particular level عند حد معين why؟because inflation
+
+210
+00:16:28,490 --> 00:16:34,890
+is an indicator for the growth rate هو مؤشر لنمو
+
+211
+00:16:34,890 --> 00:16:39,150
+لما بيصير عنده نمو الأسعار أكيد بترتفع definitely
+
+212
+00:16:39,150 --> 00:16:44,970
+هترتفع if there is increase in the economy هيصير
+
+213
+00:16:44,970 --> 00:16:50,370
+ارتفاع في الأسعار okay هذا الارتفاع في الأسعار
+
+214
+00:16:50,370 --> 00:16:54,290
+يقابله ارتفاع في النموفي ال growth rates بال GDP
+
+215
+00:16:54,290 --> 00:17:00,210
+بال GNP معرفينهم okay لكن where is .. where is
+
+216
+00:17:00,210 --> 00:17:04,490
+when the inflation considered as a bad sign متى
+
+217
+00:17:04,490 --> 00:17:07,990
+ممكن احنا نعتبر ال inflation is a bad sign؟
+
+218
+00:17:07,990 --> 00:17:14,970
+هنعتبره كالتالي ال inflation هذا
+
+219
+00:17:14,970 --> 00:17:18,050
+ال inflation is increasing in the price ارتفاع في
+
+220
+00:17:18,050 --> 00:17:24,160
+الأسعارطب ليش في ارتفاع في الأسعار لأنه في نموه في
+
+221
+00:17:24,160 --> 00:17:29,080
+الدولة في نموه اقتصادي في انتاج في طلب زي ما
+
+222
+00:17:29,080 --> 00:17:33,420
+اتفضلت هان انه في دخل للناس و .. و .. و .. و كل ما
+
+223
+00:17:33,420 --> 00:17:38,000
+الإنسان بزيد دخله بزيد استهلاكه و .. و المصانع
+
+224
+00:17:38,000 --> 00:17:42,260
+بتصير تزيد إنتاجها و بصير نمو هذا أشي طبيعي طب إذا
+
+225
+00:17:42,260 --> 00:17:44,920
+في ارتفاع أسعار طبيعي حسيه و .. و هذا is indicator
+
+226
+00:17:44,920 --> 00:17:45,720
+for the growth
+
+227
+00:17:49,150 --> 00:17:51,530
+اه احنا بنحكي على الكلام هذا بنحكي على
+
+228
+00:17:51,530 --> 00:17:56,970
+industrialized countries الدول الصناعية احنا اللي
+
+229
+00:17:56,970 --> 00:18:03,770
+عندنا اسمها بيسموه Stag Inflation Stag Inflation
+
+230
+00:18:03,770 --> 00:18:07,570
+إيش معناه Stag Inflation مارا عليكم المصطلح؟ تدخل
+
+231
+00:18:07,570 --> 00:18:12,480
+مستورديعني هذا .. هذا ال inflation تبعنا مش هو
+
+232
+00:18:12,480 --> 00:18:15,880
+احنا سببه سببه انه احنا بتأثرين في دول صناعية فلما
+
+233
+00:18:15,880 --> 00:18:18,420
+تصير ارتفاع أسعار في الدول الصناعية هتصير ارتفاع
+
+234
+00:18:18,420 --> 00:18:22,240
+أسعار لنا بس خلينا نشوف ارتفاع الأسعار في الدول
+
+235
+00:18:22,240 --> 00:18:27,800
+الصناعية كيف بيصير لما يكون انت داخلك الف شاكل
+
+236
+00:18:27,800 --> 00:18:32,460
+بتشتريه بألف شاكل صح ولا لأ؟ يعني مثلا لو واحد
+
+237
+00:18:32,460 --> 00:18:36,980
+عنده داخل ألف شاكل لنفترض بيشتريله تمامية شاكل و
+
+238
+00:18:36,980 --> 00:18:44,230
+200 شاكل saving صح؟طب لو سار دخله ألفين شاكل نفترض
+
+239
+00:18:44,230 --> 00:18:49,550
+هزيد استهلاكه خمس مائة شاكل و خمس مائة شاكل هدول
+
+240
+00:18:49,550 --> 00:18:57,970
+يعملهم saving طب لو واحد دخله عشر تلاف شاكل هيشرب
+
+241
+00:18:57,970 --> 00:19:03,050
+تمان تلاف شاكل و saving two thousand شاكل ايش
+
+242
+00:19:03,050 --> 00:19:07,510
+بتلاحظوا؟كل ما زاد الدخل زاد الاستهلاك طيب زاد
+
+243
+00:19:07,510 --> 00:19:11,770
+الاستهلاك بزيد الطلب على الشركات سيارات طيارات
+
+244
+00:19:11,770 --> 00:19:15,690
+traveling اه الناس بدها تروح تعمل traveling و تروح
+
+245
+00:19:15,690 --> 00:19:19,570
+تنبسط و تروح تعمل tourist و يزوروا ال .. okay و
+
+246
+00:19:19,570 --> 00:19:24,580
+يصير عندهم enjoyment فزاد الطلب زاد الإنتاجبصير
+
+247
+00:19:24,580 --> 00:19:27,660
+نمو في الدولة ولا لأ؟ لما يصير عندهم إنها سيارات
+
+248
+00:19:27,660 --> 00:19:31,080
+حديثة وكذا بتصير بدهم يطالبوا طرق نظيفة وانشئات
+
+249
+00:19:31,080 --> 00:19:33,220
+ويصير الناس معاهم الفلوس بدهم coffee shops على
+
+250
+00:19:33,220 --> 00:19:36,940
+البحر وعلى أي شيء هذا اللي راح يصير، مظبوط ولا لأ؟
+
+251
+00:19:36,940 --> 00:19:41,620
+وبقى بيصير فيه developments، بيصير فيه تطور، هلأ
+
+252
+00:19:41,620 --> 00:19:46,140
+اللي بيصير أنه عند الأسعار بتزيد لأنه في طلب في
+
+253
+00:19:46,140 --> 00:19:53,180
+demand و هذا is inflation و ال growth بيزيدإذا كان
+
+254
+00:19:53,180 --> 00:19:57,340
+في عندى up to 10% إذا كان الinflation up to 10%
+
+255
+00:19:57,340 --> 00:20:02,420
+لعندك 10% بيكون هذا is a good indicator بيكون كويس
+
+256
+00:20:02,420 --> 00:20:07,800
+منيح إذا كان الinflation صار يزيد بسرعة أكبر يعني
+
+257
+00:20:07,800 --> 00:20:12,300
+خلينا نحكي هان شوفوا هاي الinflation هذا المنقطة
+
+258
+00:20:12,300 --> 00:20:17,200
+الinflation وهي ال growth ال growth هو جاي بهذه
+
+259
+00:20:17,200 --> 00:20:23,080
+الطريقة في نمو بس بعد هيك ال growthصار هذا يرتفع و
+
+260
+00:20:23,080 --> 00:20:29,000
+ال growth ايش ماله؟ خلاص ال growth ثابت و ال
+
+261
+00:20:29,000 --> 00:20:33,480
+inflation بدأ يزيد ارتفاع غير مبرر بالاسعار إذا
+
+262
+00:20:33,480 --> 00:20:36,840
+كان ال growth بنمو مع ال inflation يعني النمو بمشي
+
+263
+00:20:36,840 --> 00:20:39,320
+مع ال inflation this is fine ماعناش مشكلة لأن
+
+264
+00:20:39,320 --> 00:20:42,360
+الدخل للناس عندها فلوس و بتصرف و أمورها مية مية
+
+265
+00:20:42,360 --> 00:20:48,180
+لكن المشكلة أنهالتقدم أو التطور هو يجف عند لحظة و
+
+266
+00:20:48,180 --> 00:20:51,660
+بدل الارتفاع الأسعاري يزيد فهذا بيسميه هو ال
+
+267
+00:20:51,660 --> 00:20:58,000
+inflation أو بيسموه التضخم الغير مبرر فكويس يكون
+
+268
+00:20:58,000 --> 00:21:02,600
+عنده تضخم في الدولة لأن هو دليل على فيه نمو في
+
+269
+00:21:02,600 --> 00:21:06,200
+الدولة لكن مش كويس إذا عنده مستوى معين بدل
+
+270
+00:21:06,200 --> 00:21:07,360
+inflation يزيد عن حده
+
+271
+00:21:15,780 --> 00:21:20,260
+لما طبعا يصلوا لمراحل متقدمة في الinflation بيبدوا
+
+272
+00:21:20,260 --> 00:21:25,560
+يدخل الحكومة فهي يعني أحد ال determinants اللي في
+
+273
+00:21:25,560 --> 00:21:29,920
+ال interest rates كمان في determinants أخرى هحنا
+
+274
+00:21:29,920 --> 00:21:42,100
+نحكي فيها ال remote control okay او
+
+275
+00:21:42,100 --> 00:21:42,460
+هي
+
+276
+00:21:49,860 --> 00:21:55,660
+بنفرق بين شغلتين بين ال real and nominal rate of
+
+277
+00:21:55,660 --> 00:21:59,540
+return of interest ال interest rate اللي بنشوفه
+
+278
+00:21:59,540 --> 00:22:01,760
+احنا في السوق لما روحنا .. روحنا على ال bank
+
+279
+00:22:01,760 --> 00:22:04,860
+نسألهم قداش ال interest rate عندكم؟ قولولي هذا ال
+
+280
+00:22:04,860 --> 00:22:11,960
+interest rate is 10% okay هاي ال 10% نسميها
+
+281
+00:22:11,960 --> 00:22:16,020
+nominal يعني
+
+282
+00:22:16,020 --> 00:22:24,130
+سعر الفائدةالاسم يحكي nominal مش حقيقي اه مش حقيقي
+
+283
+00:22:24,130 --> 00:22:32,170
+يعني اعطيكوا مثال لو أجينا احنا عملنا
+
+284
+00:22:32,170 --> 00:22:36,310
+للطلاب امتحان وشاف
+
+285
+00:22:36,310 --> 00:22:39,910
+المدرس ان الامتحان يعني الطلاب مش عاملينه منيح
+
+286
+00:22:39,910 --> 00:22:45,480
+فبعملهم push upنفترض هيك is a good news لنفترض أنه
+
+287
+00:22:45,480 --> 00:22:50,300
+طالب كان درجته تمانتاش عملنا بمعادلة معينة عملنا
+
+288
+00:22:50,300 --> 00:22:55,880
+أربع درجات push up فصار الطالب اتنين و عشرين صار
+
+289
+00:22:55,880 --> 00:23:02,520
+كام اتنين و عشرين صح فكرت غلطت بالغياضيات ف ال
+
+290
+00:23:02,520 --> 00:23:06,940
+nominal اتنين و عشرين هذه ال nominal مش ال .. مش
+
+291
+00:23:06,940 --> 00:23:11,610
+.. مش الحقيقي يعنيالظاهري شغلة بس بنشوفها بس هي ال
+
+292
+00:23:11,610 --> 00:23:18,350
+.. ال real mark هي .. ال real mark is not 22 مظبوط
+
+293
+00:23:18,350 --> 00:23:23,130
+ولا لأ؟ هنحكي ال real one هي ال .. ال .. العلامة
+
+294
+00:23:23,130 --> 00:23:27,530
+الظاهرية 22 بس الحقيقة مش هيك المفروض مثلا okay في
+
+295
+00:23:27,530 --> 00:23:34,180
+أربع درجات هدول زيادة صارتفلو اناش نحكي ما هو
+
+296
+00:23:34,180 --> 00:23:37,560
+العلامة الحقيقية ما هو اتنين و عشرين ناقص اربعة
+
+297
+00:23:37,560 --> 00:23:40,240
+تساوي تمانتاش هذه the effective
+
+298
+00:23:42,660 --> 00:23:46,760
+هذه الحقية بقى people generally speaking people
+
+299
+00:23:46,760 --> 00:23:49,400
+they don't look at the effective one الناس
+
+300
+00:23:49,400 --> 00:23:52,240
+ماببطلعوش على ال effective ببطلعوا على ال nominal
+
+301
+00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:55,380
+فلو احنا روحنا على ال bank و سألنا what is the
+
+302
+00:23:55,380 --> 00:23:58,260
+interest rate the bank saying the interest rate is
+
+303
+00:23:58,260 --> 00:24:03,000
+10% بقى in reality the interest rate is not 10% so
+
+304
+00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:08,420
+the question is does the bank earn 10% from the
+
+305
+00:24:08,420 --> 00:24:15,040
+loanهل البنك ربح 10% من القرد؟ يعني مثلا لو أجينا
+
+306
+00:24:15,040 --> 00:24:17,080
+احنا نحكي مرابحة، مابناش نحكي عن بنك تجارة، نحكي
+
+307
+00:24:17,080 --> 00:24:20,620
+عن مرابحة روحنا نعمل مرابحة عن بنك الإسلام الوطني
+
+308
+00:24:20,620 --> 00:24:23,200
+أو بنك الإسلام الفلسطيني أو أي بنك من هالبروك
+
+309
+00:24:23,200 --> 00:24:29,480
+وحكونا المرابحة 8% أخدنا مثلا 3000 دولار منهم
+
+310
+00:24:29,480 --> 00:24:35,680
+وحكونا 8% عليهم يعني 240 دولار my big question
+
+311
+00:24:35,680 --> 00:24:39,740
+السؤال الكبير سبعيه does the bankmake a profit 240
+
+312
+00:24:39,740 --> 00:24:46,420
+$ no definitely no why أجل definitely is lower
+
+313
+00:24:46,420 --> 00:24:54,880
+than .. this is one of the issues this is one of
+
+314
+00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:58,380
+the problems يعني واحدة منهم من التمانية فيها هي
+
+315
+00:24:58,380 --> 00:25:04,480
+inflation طب و إيش كمان غير inflation إيش في أشياء
+
+316
+00:25:04,480 --> 00:25:09,290
+أخرىيعني إذا بندخل في تفاصيل ال .. ال .. ال .. ال
+
+317
+00:25:09,290 --> 00:25:11,930
+real and nominal and the .. the main objective now
+
+318
+00:25:11,930 --> 00:25:14,350
+is to determine what is the difference between
+
+319
+00:25:14,350 --> 00:25:19,210
+real and nominal. Generally speaking, the real
+
+320
+00:25:19,210 --> 00:25:22,790
+rate of return is lower than the nominal rate of
+
+321
+00:25:22,790 --> 00:25:26,030
+return. بكرا بنجيبلكوا في الامتحان، بنجيبلكوا ياها
+
+322
+00:25:26,030 --> 00:25:29,870
+the opposite. Oh, you didn't say this. مظبوط ولا
+
+323
+00:25:29,870 --> 00:25:35,340
+لأ؟ ال .. دائما ال .. ال .. ال realreal rate of
+
+324
+00:25:35,340 --> 00:25:41,380
+return is greater than or sorry is less than the
+
+325
+00:25:41,380 --> 00:25:47,960
+nominal rate of return why? because the nominal
+
+326
+00:25:47,960 --> 00:25:52,620
+rate of return includes some parameters or some
+
+327
+00:25:52,620 --> 00:25:58,680
+variables that exceed the nominal rate of return
+
+328
+00:25:58,680 --> 00:26:03,100
+بتخليها تزيد ال nominal rate of return يعني خلّيني
+
+329
+00:26:03,100 --> 00:26:08,930
+أعطيكم مثلًاأكيد أنتوا في البيت بتغلو الشاي أو
+
+330
+00:26:08,930 --> 00:26:13,570
+الشوربة مثلا أو ال Coca Cola ال Coca Cola بنحطها
+
+331
+00:26:13,570 --> 00:26:18,230
+بالكاسة هيك و بتعرفوا ال young ال babies لما نيجي
+
+332
+00:26:18,230 --> 00:26:23,950
+نصب الكولة بال .. بالكاسة هيك بصير تطفو و بعد شوية
+
+333
+00:26:23,950 --> 00:26:26,910
+ال babies looking at the .. at the classes and
+
+334
+00:26:26,910 --> 00:26:31,430
+then it's like very little coke بلاقوها very
+
+335
+00:26:31,430 --> 00:26:37,260
+littleلأن هذا اللي صار هو is nominal لما احنا
+
+336
+00:26:37,260 --> 00:26:41,800
+صبناه و صار فيه blow up صار في عندنا الكاس اتعبت
+
+337
+00:26:41,800 --> 00:26:47,780
+مش حقيقي هذا is nominal شكلا just wait to see the
+
+338
+00:26:47,780 --> 00:26:53,100
+reality of the coke يعني شويه انتظرو دقيقة دقيقتين
+
+339
+00:26:53,100 --> 00:26:58,270
+هتشوفوا حقيقة ال Coca Cola it's very littleفهذا هو
+
+340
+00:26:58,270 --> 00:27:01,490
+ال nominal this is the difference between the
+
+341
+00:27:01,490 --> 00:27:04,590
+nominal rate of return and the and the real rate
+
+342
+00:27:04,590 --> 00:27:10,910
+of return okay I think it is clear now okay so in
+
+343
+00:27:10,910 --> 00:27:14,130
+for instance as as she said if we have eight
+
+344
+00:27:14,130 --> 00:27:18,430
+percent as as a nominal and two percent the
+
+345
+00:27:18,430 --> 00:27:23,390
+inflation rate in this caseother factors are equal
+
+346
+00:27:23,390 --> 00:27:27,350
+يعني ما ثبات العوامل الأخرى it means the real
+
+347
+00:27:27,350 --> 00:27:31,170
+interest rate of return is 6% but again this is
+
+348
+00:27:31,170 --> 00:27:34,510
+not the end of the story هذا مش نهاية القصة
+
+349
+00:27:34,510 --> 00:27:38,950
+because the interest rate of return the real
+
+350
+00:27:38,950 --> 00:27:45,610
+interest rate of return because
+
+351
+00:27:45,610 --> 00:27:51,390
+I if I is the nominal إذا I هي ال nominalI
+
+352
+00:27:51,390 --> 00:27:58,430
+includes the RF risk-free plus inflation premium
+
+353
+00:27:58,430 --> 00:28:03,630
+plus liquidity premium plus maturity premium plus
+
+354
+00:28:03,630 --> 00:28:08,610
+default premium you
+
+355
+00:28:08,610 --> 00:28:11,470
+don't need to memorize this equation just this is
+
+356
+00:28:11,470 --> 00:28:17,470
+for your knowledge يعني ال nominal rates هي تشمل
+
+357
+00:28:17,470 --> 00:28:21,140
+ال risk-free ratesو ال inflation rate يعني هدول ..
+
+358
+00:28:21,140 --> 00:28:24,000
+هدول اللي بيعملوا شوفتوا ال .. ال .. الكاسة تبعت
+
+359
+00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:27,560
+ال Coca Cola هي هدول اللي بيعملوا ال .. الدوشة
+
+360
+00:28:27,560 --> 00:28:32,340
+الكبيرة هذه بأثر عليها بقى ال real is like this ال
+
+361
+00:28:32,340 --> 00:28:36,580
+real هي .. هي just like this فهذا لزيادة جزء منه
+
+362
+00:28:36,580 --> 00:28:41,800
+بيكون risk free جزء منه inflation جزء منه
+
+363
+00:28:41,800 --> 00:28:45,780
+liquidity problems جزء منه maturity premium جزء
+
+364
+00:28:45,780 --> 00:28:51,240
+منه default premiumيعني خلّيني أعطيكم مثال what it
+
+365
+00:28:51,240 --> 00:28:56,740
+means maturity premium فترة استحقاق لو أجينا نرجع
+
+366
+00:28:56,740 --> 00:29:00,240
+للمرابح هاي تبعتنا اللي تمانية في المية كانت صح
+
+367
+00:29:00,240 --> 00:29:06,700
+طيب هل لو جاني واحد بده نفس المبلغ أو تلات تلاف
+
+368
+00:29:06,700 --> 00:29:10,280
+دولار بده نفس تلات تلاف دولار بقى this is just
+
+369
+00:29:10,280 --> 00:29:14,000
+only for one year هذا بس لسنة واحد أجي لسنتين
+
+370
+00:29:14,000 --> 00:29:17,780
+فهنطلب منه كام هنطلب منه مثلا تمانية في المية هطلب
+
+371
+00:29:17,780 --> 00:29:21,620
+منه خمستاشر في الميةطب ال inflation is inflation
+
+372
+00:29:21,620 --> 00:29:26,220
+بس إيش اللي فرجتهام ال maturity فترة الاستخدام فال
+
+373
+00:29:26,220 --> 00:29:31,800
+maturity زودت كام زودت seven percent it means it
+
+374
+00:29:31,800 --> 00:29:34,960
+doesn't mean that the bank makes fifteen percent
+
+375
+00:29:34,960 --> 00:29:41,660
+profit the bank makes fifteen percent minus two
+
+376
+00:29:41,660 --> 00:29:44,720
+percent اللي هو اتنين في المية بتاعة ال inflation
+
+377
+00:29:44,720 --> 00:29:51,430
+minus seven percent بتاعة ال maturityبصفيله كام؟
+
+378
+00:29:51,430 --> 00:29:55,230
+خمستاش ناخذ اتنين، تلتاش، تلتاش ناخذ سبعة، اللي
+
+379
+00:29:55,230 --> 00:29:59,610
+بتطلع كام؟ ستة، six percent، it is not fifteen
+
+380
+00:29:59,610 --> 00:30:03,710
+percent الفائدة ال real rate of return is not
+
+381
+00:30:03,710 --> 00:30:06,910
+fifteen percent it is six percent so far we
+
+382
+00:30:06,910 --> 00:30:09,890
+consider only two variables الinflation plus the
+
+383
+00:30:09,890 --> 00:30:15,520
+maturity ifyou notice the deflation what it means
+
+384
+00:30:15,520 --> 00:30:19,860
+inflation inflation it means يعني أنا إجيت و .. و
+
+385
+00:30:19,860 --> 00:30:23,600
+السيدة أمل إجت و إحنا التانين دخلنا على البنك و
+
+386
+00:30:23,600 --> 00:30:28,080
+قولنا لهم I want three thousand dollar and she
+
+387
+00:30:28,080 --> 00:30:31,080
+wants three thousand dollar أنا بدي تلات تلاف و هي
+
+388
+00:30:31,080 --> 00:30:34,520
+تلات تلاف my risk is greater than أمل يعني أنا
+
+389
+00:30:34,520 --> 00:30:38,600
+بنقعد انا بتحكي عن نفسي بال negative أنه أنا بدفعش
+
+390
+00:30:38,600 --> 00:30:43,390
+فإيش ال bank هيسوي هيروح يرفع فائدة عليمظبوط ولا
+
+391
+00:30:43,390 --> 00:30:47,370
+لأ؟ فهيرفع سعر الفائدة اذا كانت تمثال 8% هعمل 9%
+
+392
+00:30:49,040 --> 00:30:53,100
+لأنه أمل أمورها مستقرة و تمام و بتدفع و بتعرف ال
+
+393
+00:30:53,100 --> 00:30:56,300
+ladies are conservative محافظين كتير و بحب الأمور
+
+394
+00:30:56,300 --> 00:31:00,180
+تمشي على الطريقة الصحيحة تمام ف okay بقولها انت
+
+395
+00:31:00,180 --> 00:31:04,080
+okay eight percent لكن انا nine percent فراح ال
+
+396
+00:31:04,080 --> 00:31:08,640
+bank زود كام one percent هاي one percent because I
+
+397
+00:31:08,640 --> 00:31:13,160
+hold risk more than أمل اللي هو default risk يعني
+
+398
+00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:16,940
+احتمال انا مااسدش يعني اعطيكوا مثل لو تروحوا انتوا
+
+399
+00:31:16,940 --> 00:31:22,040
+على الدكانةو تسألوا .. بتكون تشتريوا مثلا يعني two
+
+400
+00:31:22,040 --> 00:31:26,980
+people اتنين دخلوا محل هذا و المادام تبعته و هذا و
+
+401
+00:31:26,980 --> 00:31:31,440
+المادام تبعته بس هذا بينجوسين نصاب و هذا زلمة طيب
+
+402
+00:31:31,440 --> 00:31:35,580
+ايه .. قداش الغسالة .. الزلمة بتاع المشاكل .. قداش
+
+403
+00:31:35,580 --> 00:31:40,720
+الغسالة .. الزلمة صاحب المحل عنده experience بهذا
+
+404
+00:31:40,720 --> 00:31:43,720
+الرجل إذا كانت الغسالة بألفين شاكل قوله هذه بألفين
+
+405
+00:31:43,720 --> 00:31:46,700
+و خمسمية شاكل that's it
+
+406
+00:31:50,120 --> 00:31:52,940
+أه فبقول له هذا يا حبيبي هذا بالألفين و خمسمية
+
+407
+00:31:52,940 --> 00:31:57,480
+شاكل طبعا ليش هو زود الخمسمية شاكل لأن احتمال هذا
+
+408
+00:31:57,480 --> 00:32:01,280
+مايسندش فهو بيروح برفع السعر عشان إيش ما ياخد منه
+
+409
+00:32:01,280 --> 00:32:05,420
+ياخد وذاك الراجل الطيب أو الألفين شاكل ممكن يحسبله
+
+410
+00:32:05,420 --> 00:32:08,500
+ياها بالألف و تسعمية شاكل لأنه he knows he pay on
+
+411
+00:32:08,500 --> 00:32:13,260
+time يعرفوا أنه هو بدفع بال .. بالوجد فشوفنا إيش
+
+412
+00:32:13,260 --> 00:32:16,800
+الفرق بين ال default ال default يعني مخاطر عدم
+
+413
+00:32:16,800 --> 00:32:23,420
+استدادةنقف عند هذا الحد تمام؟ وشكرين إلكم حسن
+
+414
+00:32:23,420 --> 00:32:23,920
+تعاونكم
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/-knfljkFoxk_raw.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/-knfljkFoxk_raw.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..206fb12a0ddea78646ba71effee5896c847f4999
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/-knfljkFoxk_raw.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,2016 @@
+1
+00:00:20,820 --> 00:00:24,920
+أعوذ بالله السميع العلي من الشيطان الرجيم بسم الله
+
+2
+00:00:24,920 --> 00:00:29,860
+الرحمن الرحيم الحمد لله رب العالمين وأصلي وأسلم
+
+3
+00:00:29,860 --> 00:00:35,720
+على رسول الله الأمين وبعد اليوم مع الحديث في الركن
+
+4
+00:00:35,720 --> 00:00:39,400
+الخامس من أركان الإيمان الإيمان باليوم الآخر
+
+5
+00:00:39,400 --> 00:00:42,440
+سنتحدث
+
+6
+00:00:42,440 --> 00:00:45,360
+في هذا الركن بمشيئة الله تبارك وتعالى في هذه
+
+7
+00:00:45,360 --> 00:00:50,940
+المباحث الخامسةفي المبحث الأول مفهوم الإيمان الآخر
+
+8
+00:00:50,940 --> 00:00:55,540
+وحكم الإيمان به في المبحث الثاني اليوم الآخر في
+
+9
+00:00:55,540 --> 00:01:00,380
+القرآن الكريم المبحث الثالث المكذبون بالبعث
+
+10
+00:01:00,380 --> 00:01:05,800
+والأدلة على أنه كائن في المبحث الرابع تفصيل
+
+11
+00:01:05,800 --> 00:01:12,560
+الإيمان باليوم الآخر وهكذا نكون قد انتهينا ان شاء
+
+12
+00:01:12,560 --> 00:01:17,900
+الله من الحديث عن اليوم الآخر بهذه المباحثنأتي إلى
+
+13
+00:01:17,900 --> 00:01:22,740
+المبحث الأول مفهوم اليوم الآخر وحكم الإيمان به
+
+14
+00:01:22,740 --> 00:01:31,960
+سنعرف أولا باليوم الآخر فهو يوم القيامة الذي يبعث
+
+15
+00:01:31,960 --> 00:01:36,400
+الله عز وجل فيه الناس للحساب سمي باليوم الآخر لأنه
+
+16
+00:01:36,400 --> 00:01:40,800
+لا يوم بعده حيث يستقر أهل الجنة في الجنة وأهل
+
+17
+00:01:40,800 --> 00:01:47,550
+النار في النار في منازلهم معناه الإصطلاحيمعنى
+
+18
+00:01:47,550 --> 00:01:53,670
+الإيمان باليوم الآخر استلاحا الاعتقاد الجازم بكل
+
+19
+00:01:53,670 --> 00:01:58,330
+ما أخبر به الله عز وجل في ختابه وأخبر به رسوله صلى
+
+20
+00:01:58,330 --> 00:02:04,070
+الله عليه وسلم أو يمكن أن نقول الاعتقاد الجازم بكل
+
+21
+00:02:04,070 --> 00:02:08,990
+ما أخبر به الوحي يقصد القرآن الكريم وما صح من
+
+22
+00:02:08,990 --> 00:02:14,920
+السنة عن النبي صلى الله عليه وسلممرة أخرى معنى
+
+23
+00:02:14,920 --> 00:02:20,540
+الإيمان باليوم الآخر استلاحا الاعتقاد الجاذب بكل
+
+24
+00:02:20,540 --> 00:02:25,960
+ما أخبر به الله عز وجل في كتابه وأخبر به رسوله صلى
+
+25
+00:02:25,960 --> 00:02:30,780
+الله عليه وسلم مما يكون بعد الموتوالذي يكون بعد
+
+26
+00:02:30,780 --> 00:02:36,760
+الموت أشياء كثيرة من أمثلتها فتنة القبر وعذابه أو
+
+27
+00:02:36,760 --> 00:02:43,020
+نعيمه والبعث والحشر والصحف والحساب والميزان والحوض
+
+28
+00:02:43,020 --> 00:02:48,400
+والصراط والشفاعة والجنة والنار وما أعد الله عز وجل
+
+29
+00:02:48,400 --> 00:02:53,200
+لأهلهما جميعا سواء لأهل الجنة أو لأهل النار فهذا
+
+30
+00:02:53,200 --> 00:02:58,140
+مفهومالإيمان باليوم الآخر إذا الاعتقاد الجازم بكل
+
+31
+00:02:58,140 --> 00:03:03,740
+ما أخبر به الوحي أو القرآن الكريم والسنة النبوية
+
+32
+00:03:03,740 --> 00:03:08,100
+ما أخبر به الله عز وجل في كتابه أو على لسان رسوله
+
+33
+00:03:08,100 --> 00:03:11,480
+صلى الله عليه وسلم عن الأمور التي تكون بعد الموت
+
+34
+00:03:11,480 --> 00:03:15,780
+عن الأمور التي تكون بعد الموت ثم ما يأتي بعد ذلك
+
+35
+00:03:15,780 --> 00:03:21,470
+هو أنفلة مما يكون بعد الموت سواء فتنة القبروعذابه
+
+36
+00:03:21,470 --> 00:03:25,530
+أو نعيمه والبعث والحشر والصحف والحساب والميزان
+
+37
+00:03:25,530 --> 00:03:32,350
+وتطير الصحف والحوض والشفاعة والجنة والنار وما فيه
+
+38
+00:03:32,350 --> 00:03:37,330
+ما من ألوان النعيم أو العذاب الأمر الثاني حكم
+
+39
+00:03:37,330 --> 00:03:41,790
+الإيمان باليوم الآخر بالتأكيد الإيمان باليوم الآخر
+
+40
+00:03:41,790 --> 00:03:47,080
+ركن من أركان الإيمان هو الركن الخامسهو الركن
+
+41
+00:03:47,080 --> 00:03:51,860
+الخامس وهذا الركن يمثل عقيدة لوحده اسمها عقيدة
+
+42
+00:03:51,860 --> 00:03:57,380
+اليوم الآخر فالكفر كما هو معلوم بأي ركن من أركان
+
+43
+00:03:57,380 --> 00:04:03,060
+الإيمان هو ردة وخروج عن هذا الدين وكذلك هذا الركن
+
+44
+00:04:03,060 --> 00:04:08,380
+يأخذ نفس الحكم يأخذ نفس الحكم فالذي ينكر اليوم
+
+45
+00:04:08,380 --> 00:04:13,810
+الآخر هو كافر بالله تبارك وتعالىكافر بالله تبارك
+
+46
+00:04:13,810 --> 00:04:19,230
+وتعالى وهذه الآية التي سأتلوها يعني تعطينا حكمة
+
+47
+00:04:19,230 --> 00:04:25,150
+على خمسة أركان قال تعالى ومن يكفر بالله وملائكته
+
+48
+00:04:25,150 --> 00:04:32,130
+وكتبه ورسوله واليوم الآخر فقد ضال ضلالا بعيدا فهذه
+
+49
+00:04:32,130 --> 00:04:37,330
+الآية تصلح للحكم للحديث عن الحكم في انكار أي ركن
+
+50
+00:04:37,330 --> 00:04:45,680
+من هذه الأركانما يجب أن يعتقدما يجب أن يعتقد في
+
+51
+00:04:45,680 --> 00:04:51,300
+الأركان الإيمان الستة الوجوب يجب الإيمان بها جميعا
+
+52
+00:04:51,300 --> 00:04:55,320
+يجب أن يأتي بها الإنسان المسلم حزمة واحدة الإيمان
+
+53
+00:04:55,320 --> 00:05:00,340
+بالله وملائكته وكتبه ورسوله واليوم الآخر والقضاء
+
+54
+00:05:00,340 --> 00:05:05,060
+والقدر خيره وشره هذه أركان ستة يجب أن يأتي بها
+
+55
+00:05:05,060 --> 00:05:09,660
+المسلم مرة واحدة كلها مع بعضها البعض دون تفريط في
+
+56
+00:05:09,660 --> 00:05:16,230
+أي واحدة منهاحديثنا اليوم عن الركن الخامس من أركان
+
+57
+00:05:16,230 --> 00:05:22,610
+الإيمان، الإيمان باليوم الآخر، نلاحظ و هذا يدل على
+
+58
+00:05:22,610 --> 00:05:28,300
+وجوب الإيمان بهذا الركن، أن الله عز و جل قرنقارن
+
+59
+00:05:28,300 --> 00:05:33,780
+ذكر هذا اليوم بالركن الأول وهو الإيمان بالله عز
+
+60
+00:05:33,780 --> 00:05:38,540
+وجل نجد القرآن الكريم يقرن يربط بين الإيمان بالله
+
+61
+00:05:38,540 --> 00:05:41,060
+والإيمان باليوم الآخر الإيمان باليوم الآخر
+
+62
+00:05:41,060 --> 00:05:45,880
+والإيمان بالله تبارك وتعالى في مثل قوله تعالى ليس
+
+63
+00:05:45,880 --> 00:05:49,940
+البر أن تولوا وجوهكم قبل المشرق والمغرب ولكن البر
+
+64
+00:05:49,940 --> 00:05:55,480
+لاحظي من آمن باللهواليوم الآخر في قوله تعالى في حق
+
+65
+00:05:55,480 --> 00:06:00,340
+المطلقة إن كنا يؤمن بالله واليوم الآخر في قوله
+
+66
+00:06:00,340 --> 00:06:03,980
+تعالى مخاطبا أولياء النساء من كان منكم يؤمنوا
+
+67
+00:06:03,980 --> 00:06:08,920
+بالله واليوم الآخر في قوله تعالى وصفا للمؤمنين إن
+
+68
+00:06:08,920 --> 00:06:13,280
+الذين آمنوا والذين هادوا والنصارى والصابئين من آمن
+
+69
+00:06:13,280 --> 00:06:18,560
+باللهواليوم الآخر في قوله تعالى مثلا إنما يعمر
+
+70
+00:06:18,560 --> 00:06:25,060
+مساجد الله من آمن بالله واليوم الآخر فهذا الأمر
+
+71
+00:06:25,060 --> 00:06:30,500
+يدل دلالة صريحة وواضحة وقوية على وجوب الإيمان بهذا
+
+72
+00:06:30,500 --> 00:06:34,420
+الركن يجب الإيمان باليوم الآخر فالإيمان باليوم
+
+73
+00:06:34,420 --> 00:06:39,100
+الآخر ركن من أركان الإيمانيعني ليس بالأمر الهيئ،
+
+74
+00:06:39,100 --> 00:06:45,500
+أكد الله تبارك وتعالى حصوله وأنه سيكون، فكيف إذا
+
+75
+00:06:45,500 --> 00:06:51,680
+جمعناهم ليوم لا ريب فيه، ووفيت كل نفس ما كسبت، وهم
+
+76
+00:06:51,680 --> 00:06:56,240
+لا يظلمون؟في قوله تعالى الله عز و جل يقسم الله لا
+
+77
+00:06:56,240 --> 00:07:01,640
+إله إلا هو ليجمعنكم إلى يوم القيامة لا ريب فيه ومن
+
+78
+00:07:01,640 --> 00:07:05,960
+أصدق من الله حديثة والنبي صلى الله عليه وسلم يؤكد
+
+79
+00:07:05,960 --> 00:07:10,640
+أن هذا اليوم سيحصل سيحصل النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم
+
+80
+00:07:10,640 --> 00:07:16,770
+يقول لتؤدن الحقوق إلى أهلهايوم القيامة لتؤدن
+
+81
+00:07:16,770 --> 00:07:20,730
+الحقوق يؤكد النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم أن الحقوق
+
+82
+00:07:20,730 --> 00:07:26,450
+ستؤدى لأصحاب المظالم المظلمين كل واحد سيرجع له حقه
+
+83
+00:07:26,450 --> 00:07:31,270
+حتى يقاد للشات
+
+84
+00:07:31,270 --> 00:07:36,120
+الجلحاء من الشات القرناءحتى يتنصف هذه الشيعة
+
+85
+00:07:36,120 --> 00:07:41,260
+الجلحاء التي لا قرن لها من أختها صاحبة القرون التي
+
+86
+00:07:41,260 --> 00:07:46,100
+كانت قد نطحتها في الدنيا فالله عز وجل سينصف
+
+87
+00:07:46,100 --> 00:07:51,560
+المظلومين في هذا اليوم في يوم الحساب يوم الدين يوم
+
+88
+00:07:51,560 --> 00:07:57,160
+الفصل يوم التغابن إذا هذا أمر معلوم من الدين
+
+89
+00:07:57,160 --> 00:08:02,300
+بالضرورة فمنكر اليوم الآخر كافر والعياذ باللهمنكر
+
+90
+00:08:02,300 --> 00:08:06,520
+اليوم الآخر كافر ولياذ بالله أيضا نبينا صلى الله
+
+91
+00:08:06,520 --> 00:08:09,440
+عليه وسلم عدى الإيمان باليوم الآخر ركن من أركان
+
+92
+00:08:09,440 --> 00:08:15,500
+الإيمان في حديث جبريل عليه السلام لما سأل النبي
+
+93
+00:08:15,500 --> 00:08:19,980
+صلى الله عليه وسلم جبريل لما سأل جبريل النبي صلى
+
+94
+00:08:19,980 --> 00:08:24,560
+الله عليه وسلم قال له ما الإيمان قال الإيمان أن
+
+95
+00:08:24,560 --> 00:08:31,020
+تؤمن باللهوملائكته وكتبه ورسوله واليوم الآخر
+
+96
+00:08:31,020 --> 00:08:35,920
+والقضاء والقدر خيره وشره عد النبي الإيمان باليوم
+
+97
+00:08:35,920 --> 00:08:42,320
+الآخر ركن من أركان الإيمان يجب علينا أن نلتزم بهذه
+
+98
+00:08:42,320 --> 00:08:49,040
+الأركان الستة ونعتقد أن الإيمان باليوم الآخر هو
+
+99
+00:08:49,040 --> 00:08:54,020
+ركن من أركان الإيمان الواجب على كل مسلم أن يعتقد
+
+100
+00:08:54,020 --> 00:08:59,840
+بهذا الركنوهذا الوجوب هذا الوجوب ليس على حد سواء
+
+101
+00:08:59,840 --> 00:09:05,220
+يعني ليس كل الناس على حد سواء فإن كان إن قام به
+
+102
+00:09:05,220 --> 00:09:10,660
+البعض سقط عن الآخرين فهو واجب على سبيل الكفاية على
+
+103
+00:09:10,660 --> 00:09:15,880
+سبيل الكفاية إن قام به بعض الأمة سقط به عن الآخرين
+
+104
+00:09:15,880 --> 00:09:20,720
+ونحن في تدريسنا لهذا الأمر وانتون في دراسة كنا
+
+105
+00:09:20,720 --> 00:09:25,790
+لهذا الركن ومعرفة تفاصيلهتسقطون الإثم عن الأمة
+
+106
+00:09:25,790 --> 00:09:32,210
+تسقطون الإثم عن الأمة فنحن سندرس هذا الرقم
+
+107
+00:09:32,210 --> 00:09:38,150
+بتفاصيله كما ورد في الكتاب والسنة هذا يعفي يعفي
+
+108
+00:09:38,150 --> 00:09:42,730
+العوام من الناس وكبار السن العوام من الناس وكبار
+
+109
+00:09:42,730 --> 00:09:47,730
+السنمن معرفة هذه التفاصيل فهم مطلوب منهم فقط
+
+110
+00:09:47,730 --> 00:09:52,530
+الإيمان بالجملة هكذا الإيمان باليوم الآخر بأن هناك
+
+111
+00:09:52,530 --> 00:09:57,830
+يوم للحساب سيحاسب الله تبارك وتعالى فيه العباد بعد
+
+112
+00:09:57,830 --> 00:10:02,590
+أن يقوموا له من قبورهم ينتصبوا أمامه سبحانه وتعالى
+
+113
+00:10:02,590 --> 00:10:08,010
+في محكمة عادلة يحاسبهم كل بعمله المحسن بإحسانه
+
+114
+00:10:08,010 --> 00:10:14,130
+والمسيء بإساءتهيكفي منهم ان يعتقدوا باليوم الآخر
+
+115
+00:10:14,130 --> 00:10:20,770
+بالجملة هكذا اما المعرفة التفصيلية فهذا ما نقوم
+
+116
+00:10:20,770 --> 00:10:26,510
+بشرحه وتوضيحه في مثل هذه اللقاءات على المؤمن ان
+
+117
+00:10:26,510 --> 00:10:33,710
+يستعد لهذا اليوم فكل عاقل كل عاقليعلم أنه سيُبعث
+
+118
+00:10:33,710 --> 00:10:37,830
+يوم القيامة وكما قال ربنا تبارك وتعالى فمن يعمل
+
+119
+00:10:37,830 --> 00:10:43,350
+مثقال ذرة خير يرى ومن يعمل مثقال ذرة شر يرى
+
+120
+00:10:43,350 --> 00:10:49,390
+فالعاقل الذي يستعد لهذا اليوم ويأخذ من هذه الدنيا
+
+121
+00:10:49,390 --> 00:10:55,710
+زادا يلقى بيه ربه تبارك وتعالى زادا من الطاعة
+
+122
+00:10:55,710 --> 00:11:01,680
+والعبادة لله تبارك وتعالىالمبحث الذي سنتناوله الآن
+
+123
+00:11:01,680 --> 00:11:08,620
+اليوم الآخر في القرآن الكريم فالقرآن
+
+124
+00:11:08,620 --> 00:11:16,260
+الكريم اهتم باليوم الآخر اهتماما بالغا ولهذا
+
+125
+00:11:16,260 --> 00:11:22,420
+الاهتمام مظاهر اهتم به اهتماما بالغا ولهذا
+
+126
+00:11:22,420 --> 00:11:28,180
+الاهتمام مظاهرفكما بينا أن الإيمان باليوم الآخر هو
+
+127
+00:11:28,180 --> 00:11:36,680
+ركن من أركان الإيمان من مظاهر هذا الاهتمام أن
+
+128
+00:11:36,680 --> 00:11:41,800
+القرآن الكريم ربط بين الإيمان بالله تبارك وتعالى
+
+129
+00:11:41,800 --> 00:11:47,260
+والإيمان باليوم الآخر دون فاصلكما في الآيات التي
+
+130
+00:11:47,260 --> 00:11:51,600
+ذكرناها قبل قليل منها قول الله عز وجل ليس البر أن
+
+131
+00:11:51,600 --> 00:11:56,300
+تولوا وجوهكم قبل المشرق والمغرب ولكن البر من آمن
+
+132
+00:11:56,300 --> 00:12:03,820
+بالله واليوم الآخر لم يقول من آمن بالله وملائكته
+
+133
+00:12:03,820 --> 00:12:11,070
+مثلالم يقول الإيمان من آمن بالله ورسله أو و كتبه
+
+134
+00:12:11,070 --> 00:12:15,070
+أو و قضائه و قدره قال واليوم الآخر هذا أمر ملحوظ
+
+135
+00:12:15,070 --> 00:12:18,310
+في القرآن الكريم يقرن القرآن الكريم بين الإيمان
+
+136
+00:12:18,310 --> 00:12:23,620
+بالله والإيمان باليوم الآخرإنما يعمر مساجد الله من
+
+137
+00:12:23,620 --> 00:12:28,580
+آمن بالله واليوم الآخر هذا أيضا ملاحظ في القرآن
+
+138
+00:12:28,580 --> 00:12:32,440
+الكريم إن الذين آمنوا والذين هادوا والنصارى
+
+139
+00:12:32,440 --> 00:12:38,700
+والصابين من آمن بالله واليوم الآخر ذلك يوعظ به من
+
+140
+00:12:38,700 --> 00:12:44,260
+كان منكم يؤمن باللهواليوم الآخر، هذا القرن، هذا
+
+141
+00:12:44,260 --> 00:12:49,960
+الربط بين الركن الأول والركن الخامس يدل على حكمة
+
+142
+00:12:49,960 --> 00:12:58,000
+بالغة، وهي أن الركن الأول يدل على أصلنايدلنا على
+
+143
+00:12:58,000 --> 00:13:03,100
+مصدرنا فنحن من خلق الله نحن مخلوقين لله تبارك
+
+144
+00:13:03,100 --> 00:13:08,280
+وتعالى أما اليوم الآخر فيدلنا على مآلنا ومصيرنا
+
+145
+00:13:08,280 --> 00:13:12,660
+لذلك ربط القرآن الكريم بين الركن الأول والركن
+
+146
+00:13:12,660 --> 00:13:19,180
+الخامس مظهر آخر من مظاهر اهتمام القرآن الكريم مظهر
+
+147
+00:13:19,180 --> 00:13:25,200
+آخر اكسار القرآن الكريم من ذكر اليوم الآخرأستطيع
+
+148
+00:13:25,200 --> 00:13:30,140
+أن أجزم أنه لا تخلو صفحة تكاد أن لا تخلو صفحة من
+
+149
+00:13:30,140 --> 00:13:33,920
+القرآن الكريم إلا ويذكر فيها اليوم الآخر من أول
+
+150
+00:13:33,920 --> 00:13:39,940
+القرآن إلى آخره فحتى صورة الفاتحة التي نكررها في
+
+151
+00:13:39,940 --> 00:13:44,560
+كل صلاة في كل صلاة سواء الفراد أو النوافل والسنن
+
+152
+00:13:44,560 --> 00:13:50,830
+يذكر فيها قول الله عز وجل مالك يوم الدينمالك يوم
+
+153
+00:13:50,830 --> 00:13:56,270
+الدين فيوم الدين هو يوم الحساب يوم القيامة مظهر
+
+154
+00:13:56,270 --> 00:14:01,190
+اخر من مظاهر اهتمام القرآن الكريم باليوم الآخر
+
+155
+00:14:01,190 --> 00:14:06,630
+اطلاق القرآن الكريم اسماء كثيرة على اليوم الآخر
+
+156
+00:14:06,630 --> 00:14:12,390
+اسماء كثيرة على اليوم الآخر كثرة الاسماء تدل على
+
+157
+00:14:12,390 --> 00:14:17,660
+عظم هذا الشيءأطلق أسماء كثيرة عليها وسنتحدث ان شاء
+
+158
+00:14:17,660 --> 00:14:21,520
+الله عن الأسماء التي أطلقها القرأن الكريم فيما بعد
+
+159
+00:14:21,520 --> 00:14:25,820
+سنتحدث عن الأسماء التي أطلقها القرأن الكريم على
+
+160
+00:14:25,820 --> 00:14:30,640
+اليوم الآخر والحكمة من تكرار وكثرة هذه الأسماءفمن
+
+161
+00:14:30,640 --> 00:14:34,880
+أسمائه يوم البعث، يوم القيامة، الساعة، يوم الدين،
+
+162
+00:14:34,880 --> 00:14:39,640
+يوم الحساب، يوم الفتح، يوم التلاق، يوم الجمع، يوم
+
+163
+00:14:39,640 --> 00:14:44,640
+التغابن، يوم الخلود، يوم الخروج، يوم الحصرة، يوم
+
+164
+00:14:44,640 --> 00:14:51,140
+التناد، الآزفة، الطامة، الصاخة، الحاقة، الغاشية،
+
+165
+00:14:51,140 --> 00:14:55,680
+الواقعة، الزلزلة، كل هذه وغيرها أسماء ليوم
+
+166
+00:14:55,680 --> 00:15:01,650
+القيامة، فهذه مظاهر ثلاثةنجد من خلالها أن القرآن
+
+167
+00:15:01,650 --> 00:15:06,750
+الكريم اهتم واعتنى باليوم الآخر أولاً ربط بينه
+
+168
+00:15:06,750 --> 00:15:11,170
+وبين الركن الأول ثانياً أكثر من ذكره تكاد لا تخلو
+
+169
+00:15:11,170 --> 00:15:15,910
+صفحة إلا ويذكر فيها اليوم الآخر ثالثاً أطلق عليه
+
+170
+00:15:15,910 --> 00:15:21,650
+أسماء عديدة وعند العرب كلما عظم الشيء كثرت أسماءه
+
+171
+00:15:21,650 --> 00:15:27,590
+كلما عظم الشيء كثرت أسماءه السؤال الذي يفرض نفسه
+
+172
+00:15:27,590 --> 00:15:34,500
+يا ترى ما الحكمة؟لماذا اهتم القرآن الكريم باليوم
+
+173
+00:15:34,500 --> 00:15:39,980
+الآخر؟ أيضًا الإجابة على هذا السؤال تعود إلى أربعة
+
+174
+00:15:39,980 --> 00:15:46,600
+أسباب السبب الأول أن اليوم الآخر الإيمان به له أثر
+
+175
+00:15:46,600 --> 00:15:51,460
+عظيم في حياة الإنسان ذلك أن الإيمان بما فيه
+
+176
+00:15:51,460 --> 00:15:56,960
+الإيمانبه باليوم الآخر وبما فيه من جنة ونار وحساب
+
+177
+00:15:56,960 --> 00:16:02,120
+وعقاب وثواب له أثر بالغ في توجيه الإنسان وتصحيح
+
+178
+00:16:02,120 --> 00:16:08,760
+سلوكه وانضباطه والتزام بالعمل الصالح فلك أن تقارن
+
+179
+00:16:08,760 --> 00:16:14,160
+بين اثنين بين الشخصين الأول لا يؤمن باليوم الآخر
+
+180
+00:16:14,160 --> 00:16:19,480
+الثاني يؤمن باليوم الآخر الأول لا يعتقد أصلا بيوم
+
+181
+00:16:19,480 --> 00:16:25,800
+حسابالثاني يعتقد بيوم حساب، تجد أن الأول تصرفاته
+
+182
+00:16:25,800 --> 00:16:33,560
+وسلوكياته كالوحش الكاسر، همه إشباع رغباته ونزواته،
+
+183
+00:16:33,560 --> 00:16:43,050
+يعتدي، يغتصب، يسرق، يظلم، يبطش، يتعسفهكذا، همه
+
+184
+00:16:43,050 --> 00:16:49,770
+إشباع رغبات، لا يوجد عنده ما نعرفه من أن هذا حلال
+
+185
+00:16:49,770 --> 00:16:54,930
+أو حرام أو هذا يجوز أو لا يجوزاطلاقا مثل هذه
+
+186
+00:16:54,930 --> 00:16:59,550
+المصطلحات لا توجد عنده، أما الآخر الذي يعرف اليوم
+
+187
+00:16:59,550 --> 00:17:06,750
+الآخر ويعرف أنه سيوقف أمام الله وقفوهم إنهم
+
+188
+00:17:06,750 --> 00:17:11,330
+مسؤولون، هذا نجده وقاف عند حدود الله تبارك وتعالى
+
+189
+00:17:11,670 --> 00:17:16,690
+نجده وقّاف عند حدود الله تبارك وتعالى شعاره سمعنا
+
+190
+00:17:16,690 --> 00:17:21,430
+وأطعنا غفرانك ربنا وإليك المصير إذا شتانة شتانة
+
+191
+00:17:21,430 --> 00:17:27,010
+بين الشخص الأول والشخص الثاني فكأن هذه العقيدة
+
+192
+00:17:27,010 --> 00:17:31,290
+عقيدة اليوم الآخر هي ال remote control الذي يتحكم
+
+193
+00:17:31,290 --> 00:17:35,670
+في الإنسان هي جهاز التحكم وكل إناء بما فيه ينضح
+
+194
+00:17:35,670 --> 00:17:42,230
+فكل إنسان بحسب عقيدته يتصرفوالذي يعتقد باليوم
+
+195
+00:17:42,230 --> 00:17:46,530
+الآخر عقيدة اليوم الآخر هي عقيدة قائمة بذاتها هي
+
+196
+00:17:46,530 --> 00:17:53,840
+لوحدهايعني لها أثر بالغ في تصرفات الإنسان اسمعي
+
+197
+00:17:53,840 --> 00:17:57,920
+معي هذه الآيات اسمعي قول الله تبارك وتعالى إنما
+
+198
+00:17:57,920 --> 00:18:04,320
+يعمر مساجد الله من آمن بالله واليوم الآخر إنما
+
+199
+00:18:04,320 --> 00:18:09,740
+يعمر مساجد الله من آمن بالله واليوم الآخر لو ذهبنا
+
+200
+00:18:09,740 --> 00:18:15,150
+إلى مفهوم المخالفة لهذه الآيةإنما يخرّب مساجد الله
+
+201
+00:18:15,150 --> 00:18:22,970
+من لا يؤمن بالله ولا باليوم الآخر هذا هكذا اسمعي
+
+202
+00:18:22,970 --> 00:18:27,570
+قول الله عز وجل أرأيت الذي يكذب بالدين فذلك الذي
+
+203
+00:18:27,570 --> 00:18:32,370
+يدعو اليتيم ولا يحض على طعام المسكين لو ذهبنا إلى
+
+204
+00:18:32,370 --> 00:18:37,870
+مفهوم المخالفة أرأيت الذي يصدق بالدين فذلك الذي
+
+205
+00:18:37,870 --> 00:18:43,490
+يكرم اليتيمو يحض على طعام المسكين، هكذا العقيدة
+
+206
+00:18:43,490 --> 00:18:49,770
+لها أثر، العقيدة لها أثر، العقيدة لها أثر، الله عز
+
+207
+00:18:49,770 --> 00:18:54,330
+وجل ينفي الإيمان عن أولئك الذين يوالون من حد الله
+
+208
+00:18:54,330 --> 00:19:01,110
+ورسولهلا تجد قوما يؤمنون بالله واليوم الآخر، ركزي،
+
+209
+00:19:01,110 --> 00:19:05,190
+ألاحظ معي تكرار اليوم الآخر، أنه مربوط بإيه؟
+
+210
+00:19:05,190 --> 00:19:09,690
+بالركن الأول، لا تجد قوما يؤمنون بالله واليوم
+
+211
+00:19:09,690 --> 00:19:14,990
+الآخر يودون من حد الله ورسوله، طب ما موقف المؤمنون
+
+212
+00:19:14,990 --> 00:19:23,270
+بالله واليوم الآخر؟ يعادون، مش يودون، يعادون من حد
+
+213
+00:19:23,270 --> 00:19:30,960
+الله ورسولهالمؤمنون بالله واليوم الآخر يعادون
+
+214
+00:19:30,960 --> 00:19:35,280
+لأنهم يحبون في الله ويبغضون في الله تبارك وتعالى،
+
+215
+00:19:35,280 --> 00:19:42,500
+وهذا هو مفهوم الولاء والبراء.إذا الإيمان
+
+216
+00:19:42,500 --> 00:19:50,250
+باليوم الآخر اهتم به القرآن الكريم لهذه الحكمةوهي
+
+217
+00:19:50,250 --> 00:19:55,190
+أن القرآن الكريم عقيدة الإيمان باليوم الآخر عقيدة
+
+218
+00:19:55,190 --> 00:19:59,130
+الإيمان باليوم الآخر لها أثر بالغ في تصرفات
+
+219
+00:19:59,130 --> 00:20:04,090
+الإنسان وسلوكيته الأمر الثاني الذي من أجله اهتم
+
+220
+00:20:04,090 --> 00:20:09,290
+القرآن الكريم باليوم الآخر وركز عليه وأكثر من ذكره
+
+221
+00:20:09,290 --> 00:20:14,050
+واطلق عليه أسماء كثيرة أن المشركين من العرب كانوا
+
+222
+00:20:14,050 --> 00:20:19,890
+ينكرونه أشد الإنكاروكان يثير وما يزال استغراب
+
+223
+00:20:19,890 --> 00:20:24,930
+الكافرين وتعجبهم لما يرونه من مخالفة البعث لما
+
+224
+00:20:24,930 --> 00:20:31,170
+يرونه من تحول إلى رفات هم ينظرون إلى الإنسان يجدوا
+
+225
+00:20:31,170 --> 00:20:37,290
+عظامه أو جثته قد تحللت وتحولت إلى تراب وهذا التراب
+
+226
+00:20:37,290 --> 00:20:46,610
+اختلطوساحة وماعة وضاعة وضلة ويعني لم يعود للإنسان
+
+227
+00:20:46,610 --> 00:20:50,790
+أثر في قبره، فأين ذهب هذا الإنسان؟ هل سيعود في يوم
+
+228
+00:20:50,790 --> 00:20:55,950
+من الأيام؟ هذا أمر عجيب، أمر مستبعد، أمر مستأرض،
+
+229
+00:20:55,950 --> 00:21:01,720
+أمر يعني يثير الاندهاش والاستغراب والاستبعادلذلك
+
+230
+00:21:01,720 --> 00:21:05,720
+ينكرون اليوم الآخر كان مشركو العرب ينكرون اليوم
+
+231
+00:21:05,720 --> 00:21:09,720
+الآخر لحظة القرآن الكريم يحدثنا عن استغرابهم
+
+232
+00:21:09,720 --> 00:21:18,100
+واندهاشهم قاف صورة قاف قوله تعالى بسم الله الرحمن
+
+233
+00:21:18,100 --> 00:21:23,960
+الرحيم قاف والقرآن المجيد بل عجب أن جاء منظر منهم
+
+234
+00:21:23,960 --> 00:21:31,800
+فقال الكافرون هذا شيء عجيب أذا متنا وكننا تراباذلك
+
+235
+00:21:31,800 --> 00:21:38,000
+رجع بعيد أمر مستبعد لا يمكن ما الذي يعيدنا بعد أن
+
+236
+00:21:38,000 --> 00:21:43,140
+أصبحنا ترابا و هذا التراب اختلط بالطين و الأرض و
+
+237
+00:21:43,140 --> 00:21:48,020
+تغذّت عليه الأشجار و الأشجار تغذّ عليها الإنسان
+
+238
+00:21:48,020 --> 00:21:53,320
+كيف سيعاد هذا الإنسان ذلك رجع بعيد مشركو العرب
+
+239
+00:21:53,320 --> 00:21:57,420
+كانوا ينكرونه كان هناك قوم يطلق عليهم الدهريون
+
+240
+00:21:58,860 --> 00:22:03,200
+حدثنا القرآن الكريم عنهم وقالوا ما هي الا حياتنا
+
+241
+00:22:03,200 --> 00:22:09,020
+الدنيا نموت ولا نحيا وما يهلكنا الا الدهر وما
+
+242
+00:22:09,020 --> 00:22:15,850
+يهلكنا الا الدهر يعني ستين سبعين سنة مئة سنةبعد أن
+
+243
+00:22:15,850 --> 00:22:20,430
+نولد هذه هي حياتنا ثم عندما يشيخ الإنسان و يكبر
+
+244
+00:22:20,430 --> 00:22:26,330
+تبلعه الأرض يموت خلاص هي كل قصة الحياة هكذا حتى أن
+
+245
+00:22:26,330 --> 00:22:30,970
+بعضهم اختصراها في قوله ما هي إلا أرحم تدفع و أرض
+
+246
+00:22:30,970 --> 00:22:37,590
+تبلع ما هي إلا أرحم النساء تدفع الأجنة و أرض بعد
+
+247
+00:22:37,590 --> 00:22:41,190
+ذلك تبلعها ستين سبعين سنة مية مية عشرين سنة هذه لا
+
+248
+00:22:41,190 --> 00:22:49,000
+شيءهه؟ لا شيء من العمر الزمن يعني ارض ارحم تدفع
+
+249
+00:22:49,000 --> 00:22:54,620
+وارض تبلعي كل قصة الحياة فرد القرآن الكريم عليهم
+
+250
+00:22:54,620 --> 00:23:00,900
+مركزا على اليوم الآخر مركزا وبينا هذه العقيدة
+
+251
+00:23:00,900 --> 00:23:05,180
+عقيدة اليوم الآخر رد عليهم القرآن الكريم في آيات
+
+252
+00:23:05,180 --> 00:23:09,020
+كثيرة سنقف معها ان شاء الله وسنقف مع أدلة اليوم
+
+253
+00:23:09,020 --> 00:23:15,250
+الآخر وأنه كائن لا محالةكائن اليوم القيامة كائن لا
+
+254
+00:23:15,250 --> 00:23:20,230
+محالة وسنورد أدلة عديدة ومتنوعة بمشيئة الله تبارك
+
+255
+00:23:20,230 --> 00:23:25,510
+وتعالى على أنه سيحصل كما أخبر ربنا تبارك وتعالى
+
+256
+00:23:25,510 --> 00:23:33,070
+أدلة نقلية وأدلة عقلية وأدلة حسية سنثبتها إن شاء
+
+257
+00:23:33,070 --> 00:23:39,050
+الله سنثبت اليوم الآخر وأنه سيحصل كما أخبر ربنا
+
+258
+00:23:39,050 --> 00:23:44,000
+تبارك وتعالىوهنا يجب أن أقول يعني أن الذين أصلا
+
+259
+00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:49,280
+ينكرون اليوم الآخر لا دليل عندهم، نحن في جعبتنا
+
+260
+00:23:49,280 --> 00:23:54,340
+أدلة كثيرة، لكن هم ليس في جعبتهم أي دليل إلا
+
+261
+00:23:54,340 --> 00:24:01,350
+الإنكار والجحود والاستبعاد والاندهاش والاستغرابفقط
+
+262
+00:24:01,350 --> 00:24:06,470
+هذا الذي يملكونه، أما دليل، أدلة، لا يوجد من أي
+
+263
+00:24:06,470 --> 00:24:10,490
+نوع من هذه الأدلة، لا دليل عقلي ولا دليل حسي ولا
+
+264
+00:24:10,490 --> 00:24:14,950
+دليل فلسفي ولا أي شيء، لا يوجد عندهم إلا الاندهاش
+
+265
+00:24:14,950 --> 00:24:20,610
+والاستعظام والاستبعاد وهكذا مثل هذه المصطلحات
+
+266
+00:24:20,610 --> 00:24:22,470
+ومرادفاتها
+
+267
+00:24:24,660 --> 00:24:28,700
+الحكمة الثالثة التي من أجلها اعتنى القرآن الكريم
+
+268
+00:24:28,700 --> 00:24:34,140
+باليوم الآخر وركز عليه أن أهل الكتاب وإن كانوا
+
+269
+00:24:34,140 --> 00:24:38,340
+يؤمنون باليوم الآخر إلا أن تصورهم قد بلغ منتهى
+
+270
+00:24:38,340 --> 00:24:43,080
+الفساد عقيدتهم فاسدة في اليوم الآخر فالنصارى مثلا
+
+271
+00:24:43,080 --> 00:24:46,200
+يعتقدون
+
+272
+00:24:46,200 --> 00:24:51,740
+أن هذا اليوميعتمد على وجود عيسى عليه السلام وجود
+
+273
+00:24:51,740 --> 00:24:57,600
+المخلص الذي يفدي الناس بنفسه يعتقدون أن عيسى عليه
+
+274
+00:24:57,600 --> 00:25:02,540
+السلام هو الذي يدين الناس يحاسبهم يوم القيامة عيسى
+
+275
+00:25:02,540 --> 00:25:06,960
+الذي يحاسبهم يجلس بجانب أبيه هكذا يعتقدون في
+
+276
+00:25:06,960 --> 00:25:11,960
+معتقداتهم الفاسدة يجلس بجانب أبيه بجانب الله تبارك
+
+277
+00:25:11,960 --> 00:25:19,350
+وتعالى على العرش ويحاسب الناسواليهود عقيدتهم في
+
+278
+00:25:19,350 --> 00:25:24,650
+ذلك أفسد من عقيدة النصارى فكتابهم المحرف قلّما
+
+279
+00:25:24,650 --> 00:25:30,910
+يذكر اليوم الآخر قلّما فالجنة عندهم ما هم فيهم
+
+280
+00:25:30,910 --> 00:25:35,530
+النعيم في هذه الدنيا والنار عندهم أن ينتصر عليهم
+
+281
+00:25:35,530 --> 00:25:41,750
+عدوهم انتصار عدوهم عليهم هو النار لذلك القرآن
+
+282
+00:25:41,750 --> 00:25:47,480
+الكريم ركّز على اليوم الآخروبيّنه عندما يتحدث
+
+283
+00:25:47,480 --> 00:25:51,740
+القران الكريم عن الجنة والنار هذا حديث عن اليوم
+
+284
+00:25:51,740 --> 00:25:56,140
+الآخر عندما يؤكد القران الكريم إن الدين لواقع
+
+285
+00:25:56,140 --> 00:26:01,240
+اقتربت الساعة وانشق القمر هذا كله عن اليوم الآخر
+
+286
+00:26:01,240 --> 00:26:06,560
+عندما يتحدث القران الكريم عن مقال الموحدين ومقال
+
+287
+00:26:06,560 --> 00:26:12,380
+المشركين هذا حديث عن اليوم الآخرفركز القرآن الكريم
+
+288
+00:26:12,380 --> 00:26:18,740
+على اليوم الآخر لهذا السبب سبب آخر واخير لعل
+
+289
+00:26:18,740 --> 00:26:21,940
+الحكمة من اهتمام القرآن الكريم اليوم الآخر كثرة
+
+290
+00:26:21,940 --> 00:26:27,860
+نسيان العباد له فالناس كثيرا ما ينسونه ويغفلون عنه
+
+291
+00:26:27,860 --> 00:26:35,380
+بسبب تثاقلهم إلى الأرض وحبهم للدنيا ومتاعهاوحبهم
+
+292
+00:26:35,380 --> 00:26:42,000
+للدنيا ومتاعها فالإنسان يغرق في زحمة العمل فينسى
+
+293
+00:26:42,000 --> 00:26:46,780
+اليوم الآخر ينسى أنه سيحاسب أمام الله تبارك وتعالى
+
+294
+00:26:46,780 --> 00:26:54,640
+فيقع في المعاصي يصيبه الإغراء بالملذات القريبة
+
+295
+00:26:55,590 --> 00:27:00,170
+ملذات هذه الحياة الدنيا ويغريه الشيطان يوسوس له
+
+296
+00:27:00,170 --> 00:27:07,290
+فيقع في المعاصي لكن هذا الركن الإيمان باليوم الآخر
+
+297
+00:27:07,290 --> 00:27:12,170
+له أثر بالغ في الإنسان في هذه القضية فالإنسان الذي
+
+298
+00:27:12,170 --> 00:27:19,170
+ينسى لو ذُكّر باليوم الآخر ذُكّر بالجزاء الذي
+
+299
+00:27:19,170 --> 00:27:25,570
+ينتظره والعقوبة التي ستحل به إن وقع في هذه المعصية
+
+300
+00:27:25,570 --> 00:27:31,990
+نجده ينزجر عن فعل هذه المعصية وفي المقابل الإنسان
+
+301
+00:27:31,990 --> 00:27:38,470
+إذا تكاسل عن طاعة لله تبارك وتعالى فذُكر بالثواب
+
+302
+00:27:38,470 --> 00:27:44,610
+الذي ينتظر يوم القيامة من الجنانوالنعيم الذي اعده
+
+303
+00:27:44,610 --> 00:27:49,690
+الله عز وجل للمؤمنين نجده ينشط لليوم الآخر فإذا
+
+304
+00:27:49,690 --> 00:27:55,150
+القرآن الكريم نحوصل هذا الأمر اهتم باليوم الآخر
+
+305
+00:27:55,150 --> 00:28:02,450
+لحكم أربعة الأول لما له من أثر عظيم في سلوك وتوجيه
+
+306
+00:28:02,450 --> 00:28:09,190
+سلوك الفرد اتنين لأن العرب كانوا ينكرونه أشد
+
+307
+00:28:09,190 --> 00:28:17,090
+الإنكار تلاتةلأن أهل الكتاب كانت عقيدتهم بخصوص هذا
+
+308
+00:28:17,090 --> 00:28:21,050
+الركن عقيدة فاسدة فاراد القرآن الكريم أن يصوبها
+
+309
+00:28:21,050 --> 00:28:27,270
+ويصححها الأمر الرابع لأن الإنسان كثيرا ما ينسى
+
+310
+00:28:27,270 --> 00:28:32,910
+ويغفل هذا اليوم الآخر فجاء التذكير به مرات ومرات
+
+311
+00:28:32,910 --> 00:28:37,650
+ومرات عديدة في القرآن الكريم تذكيرا للإنسان حتى
+
+312
+00:28:37,650 --> 00:28:43,420
+يصح من غفلتهلهذه الحكم والله عز وجل أعلى وأعلم
+
+313
+00:28:43,420 --> 00:28:51,620
+القرآن الكريم ركز على اليوم الآخر لنتحدث عن أسماء
+
+314
+00:28:51,620 --> 00:28:56,240
+اليوم الآخر في القرآن الكريمقلنا فيما سبق أن
+
+315
+00:28:56,240 --> 00:29:00,240
+القرآن الكريم أطلق أسماء عديدة على اليوم الآخر
+
+316
+00:29:00,240 --> 00:29:05,100
+أطلق أسماء عديدة على اليوم الآخر لو تتبعنا القرآن
+
+317
+00:29:05,100 --> 00:29:10,540
+الكريم فعلا نجد أن لهذا اليوم أسماء كثيرة وكل إسم
+
+318
+00:29:10,540 --> 00:29:16,700
+منها يدل على معنى ما سيحدث من أهوال ذلك اليوم ما
+
+319
+00:29:16,700 --> 00:29:22,700
+سيحدث في هذا اليوم القرطبي عليه رحمة الله أبي عبد
+
+320
+00:29:22,700 --> 00:29:28,990
+اللهصاحب كتاب الجامع لأحكام القرآن الكريم وهو كتاب
+
+321
+00:29:28,990 --> 00:29:35,370
+تفسير فقهي يعيد كثرة
+
+322
+00:29:35,370 --> 00:29:42,370
+أسماء اليوم الآخر يعيد إطلاق القرآن الكريم أسماء
+
+323
+00:29:42,370 --> 00:29:47,590
+كثيرة على اليوم الآخر لعظم شأن هذا اليوملعظم شأن
+
+324
+00:29:47,590 --> 00:29:52,890
+هذا اليوم فيقول فكلما عظم شأنه كل شيء يعني عظم
+
+325
+00:29:52,890 --> 00:29:59,350
+شأنه تعددت صفاته وكثرت أسماءه ألا ترى أن السيف
+
+326
+00:29:59,350 --> 00:30:07,350
+عندهم لما عظم عندهم موضعه وتأكد نفعه لديهم وموقعه
+
+327
+00:30:07,350 --> 00:30:13,550
+جمع له خمسمائة اسم وله نظائر فالقيامة لما عظم
+
+328
+00:30:13,550 --> 00:30:19,820
+أمرهاوكثرت أهوالها سماها الله تعالى في كتابه
+
+329
+00:30:19,820 --> 00:30:25,600
+بأسماء عديدة ووصفها بأسماء كثيرة قال لك ولها نظائر
+
+330
+00:30:25,600 --> 00:30:34,440
+وله نظائر النظائر مثل مثل القرآن الكريم نفسه له
+
+331
+00:30:34,440 --> 00:30:41,360
+أسماء كثيرة له أسماء كثيرة صورة الفاتحة وصل
+
+332
+00:30:41,360 --> 00:30:45,890
+أسماؤها أكثر من عشرين اسماسورة الفاتحة لما عظم
+
+333
+00:30:45,890 --> 00:30:51,270
+أمرها فاتحت القرآن الكريم السبع المثاني أم القرآن
+
+334
+00:30:51,270 --> 00:30:56,510
+الشافية إلى غير ذلك من الأسماء لما عظم أمرها كثرت
+
+335
+00:30:56,510 --> 00:31:01,710
+أسماءه السيف عند العرب لما عظم أمره كثرت أسمائه
+
+336
+00:31:01,710 --> 00:31:09,200
+الأسدمن بين حيوانات الغابة كثرت أسماءه لأنه أعظم
+
+337
+00:31:09,200 --> 00:31:14,360
+حيوان وأهم كائن، أهم مخلوق من الحيوانات، من
+
+338
+00:31:14,360 --> 00:31:19,540
+الحيوانات التي تحويها البرية أو الغابة، إذاً كل ما
+
+339
+00:31:19,540 --> 00:31:23,820
+عظم أمر الشيء، كثرت أسماءه، الله تبارك وتعالى،
+
+340
+00:31:23,820 --> 00:31:27,100
+الله تبارك وتعالى، له أسماء عديدة، له الأسماء
+
+341
+00:31:27,100 --> 00:31:31,510
+الحسنة تبارك وتعالى، واليوم الآخر كذلكلما كثرت
+
+342
+00:31:31,510 --> 00:31:36,190
+أسمائه .. لما .. لما عظم شأنه كثرت ايه؟ كثرت
+
+343
+00:31:36,190 --> 00:31:41,610
+أسمائه من أسمائه التي يمكن أن نسجلها سنذكر الاسم
+
+344
+00:31:41,610 --> 00:31:54,590
+وسنذكر آية يذكر فيها هذا الاسم ثم نذكر سبب تسمية
+
+345
+00:31:54,590 --> 00:32:02,640
+اليوم الآخر بهذا الاسمفمثلًا اليوم الآخر ذُكر في
+
+346
+00:32:02,640 --> 00:32:07,860
+قوله تعالى ذلك يوعظ به من كان منكم يؤمنوا بالله
+
+347
+00:32:07,860 --> 00:32:12,340
+واليوم الآخر وأحيانًا
+
+348
+00:32:12,340 --> 00:32:18,720
+يسمى بالآخرة أو الدار الآخرة سمي ذلك اليوم باليوم
+
+349
+00:32:18,720 --> 00:32:27,610
+الآخر لأنه اليوم الذي لا يوم بعدهلأنه هذا التعليم
+
+350
+00:32:27,610 --> 00:32:35,230
+اليوم الذي لا يوم بعده يوم البعث اسم آخر ذُكر
+
+351
+00:32:35,230 --> 00:32:39,510
+في قوله تعالى وقال الذين أوتوا العلم والإيمان لقد
+
+352
+00:32:39,510 --> 00:32:46,050
+لبثتم في كتاب الله إلى يوم البعث فهذا يوم البعث
+
+353
+00:32:46,050 --> 00:32:54,950
+سمى بهذا الإسم لأن فيه البعث إلى الحياة بعد الموت
+
+354
+00:32:56,030 --> 00:33:03,530
+الناس يكونوا أموات يكونوا في قبورهم ثم يبعثوا ثم
+
+355
+00:33:03,530 --> 00:33:10,510
+يبعثوا تعادوا لهم الحياة فيخرجون من قبورهم ينفضون
+
+356
+00:33:10,510 --> 00:33:18,350
+التراب عن رؤوسهم اسم آخر يوم القيامة ورد هذا الاسم
+
+357
+00:33:18,350 --> 00:33:25,080
+في سبعين آية من آيات القرآن الكريمذُكر كثيرا كقوله
+
+358
+00:33:25,080 --> 00:33:31,000
+تعالى الله لا إله إلا هو ليجمعنكم إلى يوم القيامة
+
+359
+00:33:31,000 --> 00:33:39,300
+لا ريب فيه القيامة القيامة في اللغة مصدر قام يقوم
+
+360
+00:33:39,300 --> 00:33:44,240
+سميت بذلك لماذا سمي يوم القيامة بيوم القيامة؟ لما
+
+361
+00:33:44,240 --> 00:33:50,090
+يقوم فيه من الأمور العظام التي بيلتها النصوصومن
+
+362
+00:33:50,090 --> 00:33:55,750
+ذلك قيام الناس لرب العالمين فيوم القيامة تقوم فيه
+
+363
+00:33:55,750 --> 00:34:02,310
+تحصل فيه أمور عظيمة كثيرة ومنها أن الناس يقومون من
+
+364
+00:34:02,310 --> 00:34:10,370
+قبورهم لرب العالمين الاسم الرابع يوم الدين في سورة
+
+365
+00:34:10,370 --> 00:34:15,750
+الفاتحة مالكي يوم الدين والدين في اللغة في لغة
+
+366
+00:34:15,750 --> 00:34:21,260
+العرب الجزاء والحسابسمي اليوم الآخر بيوم الدين لأن
+
+367
+00:34:21,260 --> 00:34:27,320
+الله يجزي العباد ويحاسبهم في ذلك اليوم يوم الدين
+
+368
+00:34:27,320 --> 00:34:32,620
+يوم الحساب يعني الدين هو الحساب هو الجزاء فالله عز
+
+369
+00:34:32,620 --> 00:34:37,460
+وجل يجازي العباد ويحاسبهم في هذا اليوم اسم الخامس
+
+370
+00:34:37,460 --> 00:34:43,700
+يوم الحساب قال تعالى إني عُدت بربي وربكم من كل
+
+371
+00:34:43,700 --> 00:34:49,820
+متكبر لا يؤمن بيوم الحسابالاسم واضح في غاية الوضوح
+
+372
+00:34:49,820 --> 00:34:56,560
+سمى بذلك لأن الله يحاسب فيه عباده على أعمالهم في
+
+373
+00:34:56,560 --> 00:35:04,320
+الحياة الدنيا اسم السادس يوم الفصل يوم الفصل هذا
+
+374
+00:35:04,320 --> 00:35:12,800
+يوم الفصل الذي كنتم به تكذبون سمى بذلك السبب لأن
+
+375
+00:35:12,800 --> 00:35:17,580
+الله يفصل فيه بين عبادهفيما كانوا فيه يختلفون
+
+376
+00:35:17,580 --> 00:35:24,760
+فالتعليل التسمية من الاسم نفسه الأمر ليس بالأمر
+
+377
+00:35:24,760 --> 00:35:31,180
+الصعب يعني يوم الخروج لاحظ يوم الخروج قال تعالى
+
+378
+00:35:31,180 --> 00:35:37,700
+يوم يسمعون الصيحة بالحق ذلك يوم الخروج سمي به ليه؟
+
+379
+00:35:37,700 --> 00:35:42,460
+لأن العبادة يخرجون فيه من قبورهم يخرجون فيه من
+
+380
+00:35:42,460 --> 00:35:48,490
+قبورهمعندما ينفخ في الصور يقول القرطب عليه الرحمة
+
+381
+00:35:48,490 --> 00:35:55,530
+الله عن هذا الإسم فأوله خروج من القبر وآخره خروج
+
+382
+00:35:55,530 --> 00:36:01,530
+المؤمنين من النار ثم لا خروج ولا دخول هؤلاء الذين
+
+383
+00:36:01,530 --> 00:36:06,480
+هم في مشيهة اللهوشاء الله عز وجل لم يعفوا عنهم،
+
+384
+00:36:06,480 --> 00:36:10,020
+انما عذبهم كما هي عقيدة أهل السنة والجماعة في
+
+385
+00:36:10,020 --> 00:36:15,240
+مرتكب الكبيرة هؤلاء آخر شيء يحصل أنهم يخرجون من
+
+386
+00:36:15,240 --> 00:36:21,960
+النار ثم لا دخول، لا خروج ولا دخول الاسم الثامن
+
+387
+00:36:21,960 --> 00:36:27,700
+يوم الوعيد قال تعالى ونفخ في الصور ذلك يوم الوعيد
+
+388
+00:36:28,380 --> 00:36:35,620
+سمى بذلك لأن فيه تحقيق وعيد الله للكافرين وعيد
+
+389
+00:36:35,620 --> 00:36:42,760
+الله للكافرين كما في قوله تعالى في سورة الأعراف
+
+390
+00:36:42,760 --> 00:36:46,940
+ونادى أصحاب النار أصحاب الجنة أن أفيضوا علينا من
+
+391
+00:36:46,940 --> 00:36:51,540
+الماء أو مما رزقكم الله قال إن الله حرمهم على
+
+392
+00:36:51,540 --> 00:36:56,830
+الكافرينإن الله حرمهما على الكافرين ونادى أصحاب
+
+393
+00:36:56,830 --> 00:37:01,570
+الجنة أصحاب النار أن قد وجدنا ما وعدنا ربنا حقه
+
+394
+00:37:01,570 --> 00:37:07,770
+فهل وجدتم ما وعد ربكم حقه قالوا بلى قالوا بلى فسمى
+
+395
+00:37:07,770 --> 00:37:13,670
+يوم الوعيد بهذا الإسم لأن الله يحقق فيه وعيده
+
+396
+00:37:13,670 --> 00:37:19,030
+للكافرين توعدهم سبحانه وتعالى بالنار وهو أدخلهم
+
+397
+00:37:19,030 --> 00:37:24,090
+إياها أسأل الله أن يعافينا جميعاالاسم التاسع يوم
+
+398
+00:37:24,090 --> 00:37:30,430
+الخلود قال تعالى ادخلوها بسلام ذلك يوم الخلود سمى
+
+399
+00:37:30,430 --> 00:37:34,330
+بذلك لأن الحياة في هذا اليوم للمكلفين في الدنيا
+
+400
+00:37:34,330 --> 00:37:40,770
+حياة خالدة أبدية لانهاية لها لانهاية لها للمؤمنين
+
+401
+00:37:40,770 --> 00:37:49,350
+للمؤمنين يا أهل الجنة حياة بلا موتويا أهل النار،
+
+402
+00:37:49,350 --> 00:37:54,970
+حيات بلا موت.طيب، الاسم العاشر يوم الحصرة، وانذرهم
+
+403
+00:37:54,970 --> 00:38:00,980
+يوم الحصرةوتسمى بذلك لأن فيه حصرة الكافرين والعصاء
+
+404
+00:38:00,980 --> 00:38:05,740
+على ما فرطوا في جنب الله فهم يتحصرون كان الأمر في
+
+405
+00:38:05,740 --> 00:38:10,700
+طاقتهم ان يعبدوا الله عز وجل ان يعبدوه ان يعرفوه
+
+406
+00:38:10,700 --> 00:38:16,640
+ويوحدوه ويطيعوه ويفعلوا كل ما أمرهم به لكنهم عصوه
+
+407
+00:38:16,640 --> 00:38:21,920
+لذلك يتحصرون على ما بدر منهم من اتباع الشهوات
+
+408
+00:38:21,920 --> 00:38:28,090
+والمعاصر التي وقعوا فيها11 يوم الجمع قال تعالى
+
+409
+00:38:28,090 --> 00:38:34,110
+وكذلك أوحينا إليك قرآن عربيا لتنذر أمة القرى ومن
+
+410
+00:38:34,110 --> 00:38:39,030
+حولها وتنذر يوم الجمع لا ريب فيه سميت بذلك لأن
+
+411
+00:38:39,030 --> 00:38:45,350
+الله يجمع فيه الناس جميعا أولهم وآخرهم كلهم في
+
+412
+00:38:45,350 --> 00:38:50,330
+صعيد واحد منذ آدم عليه السلام إلى يوم القيامة كل
+
+413
+00:38:50,330 --> 00:38:57,110
+الناس يجمعون في صعيد واحديوم الآزفة قال تعالى
+
+414
+00:38:57,110 --> 00:39:02,090
+وانذرهم يوم الآزفة إذ القلوب لدى الحناجر كاضمين
+
+415
+00:39:02,090 --> 00:39:08,830
+لماذا سمية الآزفة سميت بذلك لاقترابها لأنها قريبة
+
+416
+00:39:08,830 --> 00:39:13,010
+كما قال تعالى في أول سورة القمر اقتربت الساعة
+
+417
+00:39:13,010 --> 00:39:19,370
+وانشق القمر سميت بذلك لاقترابها فهي قريبة والساعة
+
+418
+00:39:19,370 --> 00:39:25,500
+قريبة جدا وكل آت فهو قريب وإن بعد مدها13 يوم
+
+419
+00:39:25,500 --> 00:39:32,700
+التلاق يوم التلاق في سورة غافر رفيع الدرجات ذو
+
+420
+00:39:32,700 --> 00:39:36,200
+العرش يلقي الروح من أمره على من يشاء من عبادته
+
+421
+00:39:36,200 --> 00:39:42,940
+لينذر يوم التلاق ينقل ابن كثير أسباب التسمية ليه؟
+
+422
+00:39:42,940 --> 00:39:48,140
+ما السبب؟ لماذا سمي اليوم الأخر بيوم التلاق؟ قال
+
+423
+00:39:48,140 --> 00:39:55,640
+أنه يلتقي فيه آدم وآخر ولدهأخر واحد من ولاده قبل
+
+424
+00:39:55,640 --> 00:40:02,220
+يوم القيامة ويلتقي فيه العباد أو سبب أخر يلتقي فيه
+
+425
+00:40:02,220 --> 00:40:06,560
+أهل السماء وأهل الأرض والخالق والخلق أو الظالم
+
+426
+00:40:06,560 --> 00:40:14,520
+والمظلوم أو أنه يشمل هذا كله هذا كله سيحصل سيلتق
+
+427
+00:40:14,520 --> 00:40:19,680
+الخالق مع المخلوق آدم مع آخر ولده الظالم والمظلوم
+
+428
+00:40:19,680 --> 00:40:25,420
+كل هذا أهل السماء وأهل الأرض كلهم سيلتقونفكل عامل
+
+429
+00:40:25,420 --> 00:40:33,040
+سيلقى ما عمل من خير وشر اسم آخر يوم التغاب قال
+
+430
+00:40:33,040 --> 00:40:39,580
+تعالى يوم يجمعكم ليوم الجمع ذلك يوم التغاب سمى
+
+431
+00:40:39,580 --> 00:40:46,040
+بذلك لأن أهل الجنة يغبنون أهل النار يغبنون أهل
+
+432
+00:40:46,040 --> 00:40:51,250
+النار إذ يدخل هؤلاء الجنةأهل الجنة يدخلون الجنة
+
+433
+00:40:51,250 --> 00:40:57,790
+فيأخذون ما أعد الله لهم ما أعد الله لهم يأخذون ما
+
+434
+00:40:57,790 --> 00:41:03,770
+أعد الله لأهل النار من مقاعد في الجنة هذا يفهم منه
+
+435
+00:41:03,770 --> 00:41:09,350
+أن الله عز وجل أعد لكل واحد من خلقه مقعد في الجنة
+
+436
+00:41:09,350 --> 00:41:15,670
+ومقعد في النار مقعد في الجنة ومقعد في النار كل
+
+437
+00:41:15,670 --> 00:41:21,220
+واحد منهم له مقعد في الجنة ومقعد في الناريدخل
+
+438
+00:41:21,220 --> 00:41:27,880
+المؤمنون الجنة فتبقى مقاعد من دخلوا النار فارغة
+
+439
+00:41:27,880 --> 00:41:35,440
+فيرثها المؤمنونوتلكم الجنة أورستموها بما كنتم
+
+440
+00:41:35,440 --> 00:41:42,280
+تعملون. أورستموها. هذه الجنة. هذه حقوق الاهل
+
+441
+00:41:42,280 --> 00:41:47,060
+النار. أورستموها. هي ميراث لكم بما كنتم تعملون.
+
+442
+00:41:47,400 --> 00:41:50,860
+هذا في الآخرة. في الآخرة. ويُفهم من ذلك بعض
+
+443
+00:41:50,860 --> 00:41:56,380
+العلماء قال ان مقاعد المؤمنين في جهنم في النار
+
+444
+00:41:56,380 --> 00:42:03,740
+أيضًا يأخذها أو يرثها الكافرون.يرثها الكافرون يوم
+
+445
+00:42:03,740 --> 00:42:09,460
+التغابط يوم التناد قال تعالى ويا قوم إني أخاف
+
+446
+00:42:09,460 --> 00:42:15,900
+عليكم يوم التناد سمى بذلك لكثرة ما يحصل من نداء في
+
+447
+00:42:15,900 --> 00:42:20,960
+ذلك اليوم فكل إنسان يدعى باسمه للحساب والجزاء
+
+448
+00:42:20,960 --> 00:42:26,000
+وأصحاب الجنة ينادون أصحاب النار وأصحاب النار
+
+449
+00:42:26,000 --> 00:42:30,910
+ينادون أصحاب الجنة كما في صورة إيهالأعراف كما
+
+450
+00:42:30,910 --> 00:42:35,730
+ذكرنا قبل قليل، وأهل الأعراف ينادون هؤلاء وهؤلاء،
+
+451
+00:42:35,730 --> 00:42:42,490
+16 الساعة، من أسماء يوم القيامة الساعة، قال تعالى
+
+452
+00:42:42,490 --> 00:42:47,850
+يا أيها الناس اتقوا ربكم، إن زلزلة الساعة شيء
+
+453
+00:42:47,850 --> 00:42:53,570
+عظيم، يقول القرطب في هذا الإسمسميت به إما لقربها
+
+454
+00:42:53,570 --> 00:42:58,910
+لأن كل آت قريب وقيل إنما سميت بالساعة لأنها تأتي
+
+455
+00:42:58,910 --> 00:43:04,210
+بغتة في ساعة في ساعة في ساعة تأتي في ساعة تأتي
+
+456
+00:43:04,210 --> 00:43:09,850
+فجأة من أسمائها أيضا الواقعة قال تعالى إذا وقعت
+
+457
+00:43:09,850 --> 00:43:13,650
+الواقعة اسم لصورة كاملة في القرآن الكريم يقول ابن
+
+458
+00:43:13,650 --> 00:43:18,290
+كثير في سبب هذه التسمية سميت بذلك لتحقق كونها
+
+459
+00:43:18,290 --> 00:43:26,590
+ووجودهاوليس لوقوعها إذا أراد الله صارف يصرفها ولا
+
+460
+00:43:26,590 --> 00:43:32,850
+دافع يدفعها فسميت بذلك لأنها ستتحقق ستقع كما أخبر
+
+461
+00:43:32,850 --> 00:43:37,070
+ربنا تبارك وتعالى ليس لأنها وقعت هي لم تقع بعد
+
+462
+00:43:37,070 --> 00:43:44,130
+الواقع لكن كأنها وقعت ولنرجع إلىقوله تعالى اقتربت
+
+463
+00:43:44,130 --> 00:43:49,950
+الساعته وانشق القمر فهي كأنها ايه حاصلة كأنها
+
+464
+00:43:49,950 --> 00:43:58,420
+واقعة ستاشر الصاخة قال تعالى فإذا جاءت الصاخةيقول
+
+465
+00:43:58,420 --> 00:44:03,960
+ابن كثير في سبب هذه التسمية الصاخة يعني صيحة صيحة
+
+466
+00:44:03,960 --> 00:44:10,520
+يوم القيامة وسميت بذلك لأنها تصخ الأسماع أي تبالغ
+
+467
+00:44:10,520 --> 00:44:18,740
+في إسماعها حتى تكاد تصمهاتتكاد يعني تعطل السمع عند
+
+468
+00:44:18,740 --> 00:44:23,700
+الناس لا أحد إلا ويسمعها يعني يوم أن تحصل الصيحة
+
+469
+00:44:23,700 --> 00:44:28,820
+يوم أن تحصل الصيحة يضيق الإنسان يتضايق مما يسمعه
+
+470
+00:44:28,820 --> 00:44:37,490
+من هذا الصوت المزعج الشديد تسعتاش الطامةقال تعالى
+
+471
+00:44:37,490 --> 00:44:43,010
+فإذا جاءت الطامة الكبرى قال ابن عباس سميت بذلك
+
+472
+00:44:43,010 --> 00:44:52,090
+لأنها تطم كل أمر هائل مفضع عشرين الحق الحق وما
+
+473
+00:44:52,090 --> 00:44:59,010
+الحق سميت بذلك لأن فيها يتحقق الوعد والوعيد كما
+
+474
+00:44:59,010 --> 00:45:06,050
+وعد الله المؤمنينوكما توعد الكافرين، يقول الشيخ
+
+475
+00:45:06,050 --> 00:45:12,070
+الميداني عليه الرحمة الله، لأنها تحق كل مجادل
+
+476
+00:45:12,070 --> 00:45:16,470
+ومخاصم في دين الله، أي تغلبوا، لأنه ثبتت، انتهى
+
+477
+00:45:16,470 --> 00:45:22,360
+الأمر، والأمر أصبح حقيقة واقعةواحد وعشرين الغاشية
+
+478
+00:45:22,360 --> 00:45:26,980
+قال تعالى هل أتاك حديث الغاشية اسم صورة في القرآن
+
+479
+00:45:26,980 --> 00:45:32,560
+الكريم سميت بذلك لأنها تغشى الناس بأفزعها وتعمهم
+
+480
+00:45:32,560 --> 00:45:38,760
+لا تترك أحد إلا وإيه إلا وتعمه سميت بالغاشية لأنها
+
+481
+00:45:38,760 --> 00:45:43,720
+تغشى الناس كل الناس اتنين وعشرين وهذا هو الأخر اسم
+
+482
+00:45:43,720 --> 00:45:48,940
+معنى قال تعالى القارعة ما القارعة وما أدراك ما
+
+483
+00:45:48,940 --> 00:45:54,660
+القارعةهذا الإسم من الأسماء الشديدة المفزعة
+
+484
+00:45:54,660 --> 00:46:01,640
+المؤثرة سميت بهذا الإسم أخذا مما يجري فيها من قرع
+
+485
+00:46:01,640 --> 00:46:07,880
+شديد والقرع هو الضرب الذي يحصل فيه صوت شديد وسميت
+
+486
+00:46:07,880 --> 00:46:12,680
+بالقارعة لأنها تقرع القلوب بأهوالها تقرع القلوب
+
+487
+00:46:12,680 --> 00:46:16,700
+بأهوالها لسيد قطب عليه الرحمة الله كلام جميل في
+
+488
+00:46:16,700 --> 00:46:24,990
+هذا الموضوعقال في هذا الاسم اسم القارعة لليوم
+
+489
+00:46:24,990 --> 00:46:34,570
+الآخر قال كأنه إنسان شديد مفتول العضلات قوي البنية
+
+490
+00:46:34,570 --> 00:46:39,810
+يمسك بتلابيب ثياب الإنسان ويهزه بعنف ويقول له
+
+491
+00:46:39,810 --> 00:46:46,740
+القارعة ما القارعة وما أدرك ما القارعةفهذا اسم
+
+492
+00:46:46,740 --> 00:46:51,960
+يقرع القلوب قرعا وبالتأكيد هو يتناسب مع القلوب
+
+493
+00:46:51,960 --> 00:46:58,200
+القاسية قد يتأثر صاحب القلب القاسي باسم يوم
+
+494
+00:46:58,200 --> 00:47:02,920
+التغابن، يوم التناديوم الحساب يوم الديه قد لا
+
+495
+00:47:02,920 --> 00:47:08,960
+يتأثر لكن مثل هذا الإسم يوقظه من غفلته يوقظه من
+
+496
+00:47:08,960 --> 00:47:16,880
+غفلته فيقرع قلبه قرعا ويجعله يقظا يعني مستجيبا
+
+497
+00:47:16,880 --> 00:47:21,560
+لأمر الله تبارك وتعالى هذه أسماء عديدة وهناك أسماء
+
+498
+00:47:21,560 --> 00:47:26,940
+حقيقة يعني كثيرة كل هذه الأسماء وغيرها كما رأينا
+
+499
+00:47:26,940 --> 00:47:31,550
+يعنيتصور ما يجري أو بعض ما يجري في ذلك اليوم
+
+500
+00:47:31,550 --> 00:47:35,730
+العظيم من خلال الأسماء التي ذكرناها وغيرها
+
+501
+00:47:35,730 --> 00:47:39,910
+بالإضافة إلى أسماء عديدة ذُكرت في القرآن الكريم
+
+502
+00:47:39,910 --> 00:47:45,270
+لهذا اليوم العظيم نسأل الله تبارك وتعالى أن نكون
+
+503
+00:47:45,270 --> 00:47:49,290
+من الذين يستمعون القول فيتبعون أحسنه السلام عليكم
+
+504
+00:47:49,290 --> 00:47:50,650
+ورحمة الله وبركاته
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/5UnVLOP-Pk8.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/5UnVLOP-Pk8.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..68c8e08cb599c64ed148cac1dad764759a17533c
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/5UnVLOP-Pk8.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1614 @@
+1
+00:00:20,840 --> 00:00:23,660
+أعوذ بالله السميع العليم من الشيطان الرجيم بسم 
+
+2
+00:00:23,660 --> 00:00:28,000
+الله الرحمن الرحيم الحمد لله رب العالمين وأصلي 
+
+3
+00:00:28,000 --> 00:00:32,460
+وأسلم على رسول الله الأمين محمد بن عبد الله الصادق 
+
+4
+00:00:32,460 --> 00:00:37,160
+الأمين صلى الله عليه وعلى آله وصحبه وسلم أجمعين
+
+5
+00:00:37,160 --> 00:00:43,960
+وبعد، اليوم بمشيئة الله تبارك وتعالى، وبعد أن تحدثنا 
+
+6
+00:00:43,960 --> 00:00:49,900
+في تفاصيل اليوم الآخر وبدأنا بالحياة البرزخية، وما 
+
+7
+00:00:49,900 --> 00:00:56,180
+يكون فيها من فتنة القبر وسؤال الملكين وعذاب القبر 
+
+8
+00:00:56,180 --> 00:01:02,200
+ونعيمه، وأقمنا الأدلة على ذلك، نأتي لنتحدث في أسباب 
+
+9
+00:01:02,200 --> 00:01:08,840
+عذاب القبر، فعذاب القبر يحصل للإنسان بسبب معاصي 
+
+10
+00:01:08,840 --> 00:01:14,740
+يرتكبها هذا الإنسان في حياته، من هذه المعاصي واحدة 
+
+11
+00:01:14,740 --> 00:01:21,940
+عدم الاستنجاء من البول، والمشي بالنميمة، عدم الاستنجاء 
+
+12
+00:01:21,940 --> 00:01:29,080
+من البول والمشي بالنميمة معصيتان، بسببهما يكون 
+
+13
+00:01:29,080 --> 00:01:37,220
+لصاحبهما عذاب، عذاب في قبره، ذكرى ذلك النبي صلى الله 
+
+14
+00:01:37,220 --> 00:01:42,680
+عليه وسلم، فقد أخرج الإمام البخاري والإمام مسلم عن 
+
+15
+00:01:42,680 --> 00:01:46,920
+علي بن عباس رضي الله عنهما، قال: مر النبي صلى الله عليه 
+
+16
+00:01:46,920 --> 00:01:52,230
+وسلم بقبرين، فقال النبي: إنهما لا يعذبان، هذا تأكيد من 
+
+17
+00:01:52,230 --> 00:01:57,070
+النبي إنهما لا يعذبان، ثم قال: وما يعذبان في كبير 
+
+18
+00:01:57,070 --> 00:02:05,050
+الأمر، الذي يعذبان من أجله ليس من الكبائر، ثم قال 
+
+19
+00:02:05,050 --> 00:02:10,800
+النبي: أما أحدهما فكان لا يستتر من البول، وأما الآخر 
+
+20
+00:02:10,800 --> 00:02:16,700
+فكان يمشي بالنميمة، نعم، هذا الحديث فيه يعني من 
+
+21
+00:02:16,700 --> 00:02:21,920
+العظات والمفاهيم الطيبة والتربوية التي لنا أن 
+
+22
+00:02:21,920 --> 00:02:31,500
+نتعلمها ونعلمها أبناءنا، إذا المعصيتان هما عدم 
+
+23
+00:02:31,500 --> 00:02:35,880
+الاستنجاء من البول والمشي بالنميمة، عدم الاستنجاء من 
+
+24
+00:02:35,880 --> 00:02:41,360
+البول، جاء في هذه الرواية فكان لا يستتر من البول، وفي 
+
+25
+00:02:41,360 --> 00:02:47,620
+رواية أخرى كان لا يستنزه من البول، وفي ثالثة كان لا 
+
+26
+00:02:47,620 --> 00:02:53,940
+يستبرئ من البول، لنبقى مع هذه الآية كان لا يستتر من 
+
+27
+00:02:53,940 --> 00:03:01,160
+البول، لا يستتر بمعنى يبول أمام الناس، فيراه الصغار 
+
+28
+00:03:01,160 --> 00:03:08,610
+والكبار، رجالا ونساء، فيكون قدوة للصغار لأنه 
+
+29
+00:03:08,610 --> 00:03:14,130
+بحسب ما يرون هذا الكبير، إن كان يفعل هذه الفعلة 
+
+30
+00:03:14,130 --> 00:03:19,310
+يبول أمام الناس فهو قدوة لهم، لهم أن يفعلوا ويقتدوا 
+
+31
+00:03:19,310 --> 00:03:24,470
+به ويتأثروا به، كان لا يستتر من البول، مع أن النبي 
+
+32
+00:03:24,470 --> 00:03:28,930
+صلى الله عليه وسلم من هدي كان كما حدث عنه الصحابة 
+
+33
+00:03:28,930 --> 00:03:34,280
+الكرام، إذا أراد الخلاء يمشي بعيدا حتى يختفي عن 
+
+34
+00:03:34,280 --> 00:03:38,920
+الأنظار، وراء الكثبان الرملية فيقضي حاجته صلى الله 
+
+35
+00:03:38,920 --> 00:03:43,660
+عليه وسلم، اليوم وبفضل الله تبارك وتعالى، منّ الله 
+
+36
+00:03:43,660 --> 00:03:49,220
+علينا بالأبنية والجدران والأبواب والسحابات وما إلى 
+
+37
+00:03:49,220 --> 00:03:55,810
+ذلك، فللإنسان أن يقضي حاجته بكل أريحية دون أن يراه 
+
+38
+00:03:55,810 --> 00:04:02,410
+أحد، دون أن يراه أحد، ودون أن يكلف نفسه المشي البعيد 
+
+39
+00:04:02,410 --> 00:04:08,290
+مسافات طويلة، فليس لأحد عذرا في أن يبول أمام الناس 
+
+40
+00:04:08,290 --> 00:04:14,750
+بحجة أنه يعني محتاج لقضاء حاجته الآن، فالحمامات 
+
+41
+00:04:14,750 --> 00:04:20,160
+موجودة، والجدران موجودة، والأبواب موجودة، وهذا من 
+
+42
+00:04:20,160 --> 00:04:24,660
+الأداب التي يجب أن نعلمها لأبنائنا، لصغارنا ذكورا 
+
+43
+00:04:24,660 --> 00:04:28,300
+كانوا أو إناثا، أن نستتر من البول، أن نغلق على 
+
+44
+00:04:28,300 --> 00:04:35,440
+أنفسنا، أن نغلق على أنفسنا، فحتى لا يرانا أحد، فكان 
+
+45
+00:04:35,440 --> 00:04:39,230
+لا يستتر من البول، في الرواية الثانية والثالثة، كان 
+
+46
+00:04:39,230 --> 00:04:44,210
+لا يستبرئ، وفي الثالثة لا يستنزه من البول، الاستنزاه 
+
+47
+00:04:44,210 --> 00:04:48,830
+والاستبراء بمعنى واحد، بمعنى التخلص والتبرء من 
+
+48
+00:04:48,830 --> 00:04:55,930
+البول، بمعنى كان لا يستنزه بمعنى لا ينتظر حتى يتأكد 
+
+49
+00:04:55,930 --> 00:05:02,290
+من انقطاع البول من النزول، فيترتب على ذلك نزول قطرات 
+
+50
+00:05:02,290 --> 00:05:07,130
+من البول في ثيابه، تنجس ثيابه، وبالتالي تبطل صلاته 
+
+51
+00:05:07,130 --> 00:05:11,270
+لأن شرط من شروط صحة الصلاة معروف، الشروط الخامسة 
+
+52
+00:05:11,270 --> 00:05:18,110
+طهارة الثياب وطهارة المكان، إذا هذا أمر لابد منه 
+
+53
+00:05:18,110 --> 00:05:22,530
+يرتب عليه أمر آخر ما لا يتم الواجب إلا به فهو واجب 
+
+54
+00:05:22,530 --> 00:05:28,000
+كان واجبا عليه أن يتحرز ويتصبر حتى يتأكد من انقطاع 
+
+55
+00:05:28,000 --> 00:05:32,840
+نزول البول، حتى لا ينزل البول في ثيابه، ثم بعد ذلك 
+
+56
+00:05:32,840 --> 00:05:40,200
+يتوضأ ويمضي إلى صلاته، أما أن يدخل الحمام ويستعجل 
+
+57
+00:05:40,200 --> 00:05:44,440
+لكأنه لا يستنزه من البول، لا يستبرئ من البول، بسبب 
+
+58
+00:05:44,440 --> 00:05:50,080
+هذه المعصية، الإنسان يعذب في قبره، سواء على رواية لا 
+
+59
+00:05:50,080 --> 00:05:55,260
+يستتر، عدم الاستنجاء، أو لا يستبرئ ولا يستنزه بمعنى 
+
+60
+00:05:55,260 --> 00:05:59,960
+عدم التبرء والتخلص والتأكد من نزول البول على 
+
+61
+00:05:59,960 --> 00:06:04,980
+أحدهما، على كليهما، على أي واحدة منهم الإنسان يعذب 
+
+62
+00:06:04,980 --> 00:06:11,900
+في قبره، وأما الآخر، المعصية الثانية فكان يمشي 
+
+63
+00:06:11,900 --> 00:06:18,020
+بالنميمة، كان يمشي بالنميمة، لاحظي كلمة يمشي فعل 
+
+64
+00:06:18,020 --> 00:06:23,380
+مضارع مستمر، فعل مضارع، يمشي بالنميمة، والنميمة هي 
+
+65
+00:06:23,380 --> 00:06:28,320
+نقل الكلام بين الناس على سبيل الإفساد، على سبيل 
+
+66
+00:06:28,320 --> 00:06:31,940
+الإفساد، وهذه التي سماها النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم 
+
+67
+00:06:31,940 --> 00:06:38,040
+الحالقة، لا أقول تحلق الشهر، ولكن تحلق الدين، هذه 
+
+68
+00:06:38,040 --> 00:06:43,180
+النميمة، نقل الكلام بين الناس على سبيل الإفساد، يعني 
+
+69
+00:06:43,180 --> 00:06:47,480
+الحالقة كما قال النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم، لا يدخل 
+
+70
+00:06:47,480 --> 00:06:54,630
+الجنة نمام، لا يدخل الجنة نمّام، بمعنى إيه، ينقل الناس 
+
+71
+00:06:54,630 --> 00:06:58,870
+ينقل الكلام بين الناس على سبيل الإفساد، فهذه أيضا 
+
+72
+00:06:58,870 --> 00:07:03,170
+من الكبائر، من الكبائر التي يجب أن يتحرز منها 
+
+73
+00:07:03,170 --> 00:07:07,850
+الإنسان ويحترس ويبتعد عن الوقوع فيها، قال الإمام 
+
+74
+00:07:07,850 --> 00:07:12,850
+النووي: وأما النميمة فحقيقتها نقل كلام الناس بعضهم 
+
+75
+00:07:12,850 --> 00:07:17,570
+إلى بعض على جهة الإفساد، يعني على سبيل الإفساد، وأما 
+
+76
+00:07:17,570 --> 00:07:21,810
+قول النبي: لا يستتر من بوله، معناه لا يجتنبه ويتحرز 
+
+77
+00:07:21,810 --> 00:07:26,090
+منه، وأما قوله صلى الله عليه وسلم: وما يعذبان في 
+
+78
+00:07:26,090 --> 00:07:29,830
+كبير، فقد ذكر العلماء فيه تأويلين 
+
+79
+00:07:32,250 --> 00:07:38,670
+أما أحدهم أنه ليس بكبير في زعمهما، من يرتكب هذه 
+
+80
+00:07:38,670 --> 00:07:45,170
+المعاصي يحسب أنها ليست من الكبائر، ماذا في ذلك؟ 
+
+81
+00:07:45,170 --> 00:07:50,510
+هكذا يبرر فعلته، ماذا في ذلك؟ أنا مضطر لأن أقول 
+
+82
+00:07:50,510 --> 00:07:55,650
+أمام الناس، أقول على نفسي؟ أنا مضطر أن أقول على .. 
+
+83
+00:07:55,650 --> 00:08:00,630
+فهو في نظره فعلته ليست من الكبائر، ليس بكبير في 
+
+84
+00:08:00,630 --> 00:08:07,520
+زعمهما، ثم الذي ينم، أنا ما الذي فعلته فقط، نحن نتسلى 
+
+85
+00:08:07,520 --> 00:08:14,980
+نحن نتسلى، أو أنا بعمل مجلبة في فلان، هذه الأفعال 
+
+86
+00:08:14,980 --> 00:08:23,240
+التي توغر الصدور وتحدث الحقد والحسد والحزن بين 
+
+87
+00:08:23,240 --> 00:08:27,790
+قلوب المتحابين، نقل الكلام بين الناس على سبيل 
+
+88
+00:08:27,790 --> 00:08:32,110
+الإفساد، هذه النميمة هي من الكبائر، وعدها العلماء من 
+
+89
+00:08:32,110 --> 00:08:36,530
+الكبائر، كل علماء الإسلام الذين كتبوا في هذا 
+
+90
+00:08:36,530 --> 00:08:42,390
+الموضوع عدوا النميمة من الكبائر، الأمر الثاني أنه 
+
+91
+00:08:42,390 --> 00:08:47,690
+ليس بكبير تركه عليهم، يعني ليس صعبا، ليس عسيرا، ليس 
+
+92
+00:08:47,690 --> 00:08:54,350
+معجزا على صاحب هذا الفعل أن يترك هذا الأمر، الذي 
+
+93
+00:08:54,350 --> 00:08:59,390
+يبول أمام الناس ليس صعب عليه أن يفتش عن مكان يستتر 
+
+94
+00:08:59,390 --> 00:09:05,210
+فيه فيبول فيه، ليس صعب عليه أن يبقى شيء من الوقت 
+
+95
+00:09:05,210 --> 00:09:11,500
+اليسير ليقضي حاجته بعد ذلك وليتأكد من انقطاع نزول 
+
+96
+00:09:11,500 --> 00:09:18,960
+البول، ليس صعب عليه أن يترك النميمة التي هي كبيرة 
+
+97
+00:09:18,960 --> 00:09:24,480
+من الكبائر والتي تحدث الحزن بين الأحباب والأصحاب 
+
+98
+00:09:24,480 --> 00:09:30,560
+والأقارب والمعارف، إذن فسبب كونهما كبيرين أن عدم 
+
+99
+00:09:30,560 --> 00:09:34,660
+الاستنجاء من البول كما قلنا يلزم منه بطلان الصلاة 
+
+100
+00:09:34,660 --> 00:09:42,150
+فتركه كبيرة ولا شك، ترك الاستنجاء وترك الاستنجاء 
+
+101
+00:09:42,150 --> 00:09:48,910
+والاستبراء من البول يلزم منه بطلان الصلاة، والماشي 
+102
+00:09:48,910 --> 00:09:53,850
+بالنميمة والسعي بالفساد من أقبح القبائح، لا سيما 
+
+103
+00:09:53,850 --> 00:09:59,470
+كما قلت مع الإشارة لكلام النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم 
+
+104
+00:09:59,470 --> 00:10:06,340
+عندما قال: كان يمشي بالنميمة، كان التي للحالة 
+
+105
+00:10:06,340 --> 00:10:10,960
+المستمرة غالبا، يعني هو مع سبق الإصرار والترصد يمشي 
+
+106
+00:10:10,960 --> 00:10:17,520
+يسعى لها سعيا ليحدث هذا الحزن وهذه الفرقة وهذا 
+
+107
+00:10:17,520 --> 00:10:22,340
+الخلاف بين الأحباب والأصحاب، إذا هذه كبائر، هذه 
+
+108
+00:10:22,340 --> 00:10:28,060
+معاصي من فعلها استحق العذاب في قبره، معصية أخرى 
+
+109
+00:10:28,060 --> 00:10:34,380
+عذاب الميت بما ينوح عليه، عذاب الميت بما ينوح عليه 
+
+110
+00:10:34,380 --> 00:10:41,960
+فالميت يعذب بنواحي أهله عليه، والنقطة الثالثة شبيهة 
+
+111
+00:10:41,960 --> 00:10:47,900
+بها عذاب الميت ببعض أقوال أهله فيه، ببعض أقوال أهله 
+
+112
+00:10:47,900 --> 00:10:53,400
+فيه، ففي الحديث الميت يعذب في قبره بما .. بما ينوح 
+
+113
+00:10:53,400 --> 00:10:59,580
+عليه، في الحديث عن النبي: ما من ميت يموت فيقوم باك 
+
+114
+00:10:59,580 --> 00:11:06,640
+وجبلاه وسيداه إلا وكلا به ملكان يلهزانه 
+
+115
+00:11:09,650 --> 00:11:16,150
+يلهزانه، يقولان له: أها كذا كنت؟ أنت كنت سيد لهم؟ 
+
+116
+00:11:16,150 --> 00:11:23,990
+كنت جبلا لأهلك؟ أه كنت رازقا لهم؟ كنت سندا لهم؟ 
+
+117
+00:11:23,990 --> 00:11:29,650
+هكذا يلهزانه بمعنى يعاتبانه، يوجهان له السؤال 
+
+118
+00:11:29,650 --> 00:11:35,870
+والتبكيت والتبكيت، فهذه معاصي، كيف يتخلص الإنسان من 
+
+119
+00:11:35,870 --> 00:11:43,070
+هذا الأمر، عليه أن يوصي أن يوصي أهله بماذا يفعلون 
+
+120
+00:11:43,070 --> 00:11:47,110
+إذا مات، أن لا ينوحوا عليه، أن لا يعددوا، أن لا 
+
+121
+00:11:47,110 --> 00:11:51,950
+يلطموا الخدود، وأن لا يشقوا الجيوب، وأن لا يقولوا 
+
+122
+00:11:51,950 --> 00:11:57,370
+ما يغضب المولى تبارك وتعالى، فليحتسبوا، وليصبروا، 
+
+123
+00:11:57,370 --> 00:12:02,270
+وليتجلدوا، فهذا قدوتنا النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم 
+
+124
+00:12:02,270 --> 00:12:10,400
+لما مات ابنه إبراهيم، قال: والله إن القلب لا يحزن، وإن 
+
+125
+00:12:10,400 --> 00:12:15,740
+العين لتدمع، وإن على فراقها يا إبراهيم لمحزونون
+
+126
+00:12:15,740 --> 00:12:21,950
+ولكن لا نقول إلا ما يرضي ربنا لا نقول إلا ما يرضي
+
+127
+00:12:21,950 --> 00:12:25,470
+ربنا فهذا هو قدوتنا عليه الصلاة والسلام فعلينا أن 
+
+128
+00:12:25,470 --> 00:12:31,330
+نوصي أهلنا، ذوينا، أبناءنا، أحباءنا، من بقي خلفنا 
+
+129
+00:12:31,330 --> 00:12:35,250
+أن يفعلوا مثل هذا الفعل، أن يتأثوا بالنبي صلى الله 
+
+130
+00:12:35,250 --> 00:12:39,550
+عليه وسلم فمن معتقدات أهل السنة والجماعة كما أن 
+
+131
+00:12:39,550 --> 00:12:46,130
+الجنة حق والنار حق أيضا قالوا والموت حق الموت حق 
+
+132
+00:12:46,130 --> 00:12:51,870
+الموت حق ونحن نراه ولو كتب الخلود لأحد لكتب لحبيب
+
+133
+00:12:51,870 --> 00:12:56,650
+الرحمن عليه الصلاة والسلام لكتب للنبي صلى الله 
+
+134
+00:12:56,650 --> 00:13:01,970
+عليه وسلم قال الله عز وجل فيه إنك ميت وإنهم ميتون 
+
+135
+00:13:01,970 --> 00:13:08,210
+من الذنوب والمعاصي أيضا التي يعذب الإنسان من أجلها 
+
+136
+00:13:08,210 --> 00:13:15,590
+الكذب وهجر القرآن والزنا والربا والزنا والربا ونجد 
+
+137
+00:13:15,590 --> 00:13:20,030
+هذه المعاصي في حديث للنبي صلى الله عليه وسلم يرويه 
+
+138
+00:13:20,030 --> 00:13:25,850
+الإمام البخاري يقول صمر ابن جندب كان النبي صلى 
+
+139
+00:13:25,850 --> 00:13:33,410
+الله عليه وسلم إذا صلى صلاة أقبل علينا بوجهه كلما 
+
+140
+00:13:33,410 --> 00:13:39,670
+يصلي صلاة لسيما لعله صلاة الفجر يستدير هكذا يتوجه 
+
+141
+00:13:39,670 --> 00:13:44,870
+بوجهه لصحاب الكرام فيسألهم ما رأى منكم الليلة رؤية 
+
+142
+00:13:44,870 --> 00:13:50,550
+قال فإن رأى أحد قصها فيؤولها النبي صلى الله عليه 
+
+143
+00:13:50,550 --> 00:13:55,010
+وسلم يفسرها لهم فيقول ما شاء الله ففي يوم من 
+
+144
+00:13:55,010 --> 00:14:00,330
+الأيام سألنا يوما فقال هل رأى أحد منكم رؤية قلنا لا 
+
+145
+00:14:00,330 --> 00:14:04,750
+قال لكني رأيت الليلة هو النبي عليه الصلاة والسلام 
+
+146
+00:14:04,750 --> 00:14:11,840
+نفسه رأى رؤية قال رأيت الليلة رجلين أتيني فأخذا 
+
+147
+00:14:11,840 --> 00:14:18,920
+بيديه فأخرجاني إلى الأرض المقدسة فإذا رجل جالس 
+
+148
+00:14:18,920 --> 00:14:30,440
+ورجل 
+
+149
+00:14:30,440 --> 00:14:39,500
+قائم بيده كالوب واحد جالس والآخر واقف وبيده الكلوب
+
+150
+00:14:39,500 --> 00:14:45,300
+هو الكلاب الذي إيه تعلق به اللحم عند الجزارين 
+
+151
+00:14:45,300 --> 00:14:49,080
+ورجل 
+
+152
+00:14:49,080 --> 00:14:54,060
+قائم بيده كلوب من حديد يدخل ذلك الكلوب في شطقه في 
+
+153
+00:14:54,060 --> 00:14:59,660
+فمه يعني حتى يبلغ قفاه ثم يفعل بشطقه الآخر مثل ذلك 
+
+154
+00:14:59,660 --> 00:15:06,480
+ويلتأم بمعنى يبرأ يلتأم شدقه هذا فيعود فيصنع مثله 
+
+155
+00:15:06,480 --> 00:15:12,820
+فيصنع مثله يعني الرجل الواقف يمسك بالكلوب فيدخله 
+
+156
+00:15:12,820 --> 00:15:19,000
+في فم الرجل الجالس فينتزعه 
+
+157
+00:15:19,000 --> 00:15:28,980
+هكذا ثم يخرجه ثم يدخله مرة ثانية وهكذا قلت ما هذا 
+
+158
+00:15:28,980 --> 00:15:34,450
+قال انطلق فانطلقنا حتى أتينا على رجل مضج على قفاه 
+
+159
+00:15:34,450 --> 00:15:41,390
+رجل مضج على قفاه ورجل قائم بفهر بفهر يعني بحجر أو 
+
+160
+00:15:41,390 --> 00:15:49,210
+صخرة فيشدخ بها رأسه يشدخ يعني إيه؟ يدرب فيكسر رأسه
+
+161
+00:15:49,210 --> 00:15:54,710
+فيشدخ بها رأسه فإذا ضربه تدهده إذا ضربه بالحجر 
+
+162
+00:15:54,710 --> 00:16:01,380
+الحجر يتدهرج فانطلق إليه ليأخذه يأتي بالحجر مرة 
+
+163
+00:16:01,380 --> 00:16:07,540
+ثانية فلا يرجع إليه حتى يلتئم رأسه وعاد رأسه كما 
+
+164
+00:16:07,540 --> 00:16:14,920
+هو فعاد إليه فضربه مرة أخرى قلت من هذا قال انطلق 
+
+165
+00:16:14,920 --> 00:16:23,140
+فانطلقنا إلى ثقب مشهد ثالث مثل التنور أعلاه ضيق 
+
+166
+00:16:23,140 --> 00:16:30,570
+وأسفله واسع يتوقد تحته نار فإذا اقتربوا ارتفعوا 
+
+167
+00:16:30,570 --> 00:16:36,710
+حتى كادوا أن يخرجوا لحظة قدر من أعلى ضيق ومن 
+
+168
+00:16:36,710 --> 00:16:43,810
+أسفل متسع واسع وفيه أناس هؤلاء كلما أرادوا أن 
+
+169
+00:16:43,810 --> 00:16:49,250
+يخرجوا كلما أرادوا أن يخرجوا يعني يعودوا إلى إيه؟
+
+170
+00:16:49,250 --> 00:16:53,090
+إلى الأسفل، لا يتمكنوا من ذلك فإذا خمدت رجعوا فيها 
+
+171
+00:16:53,090 --> 00:16:59,450
+وفيها رجال ونساء عراء فقلت من هذا؟ قال انطلق 
+
+172
+00:16:59,450 --> 00:17:06,150
+فانطلقنا حتى أتينا على نهر من دم فيه رجل قائم 
+
+173
+00:17:06,150 --> 00:17:12,620
+المشهد الرابع فيه رجل قائم على وسط النهر رجل واقف 
+
+174
+00:17:12,620 --> 00:17:17,540
+هناك في وسط النهر ورجل على شاطئ النهر على شاطئ 
+
+175
+00:17:17,540 --> 00:17:22,000
+النهر بيده بين يديه حجارة فأقبل الرجل الذي في 
+
+176
+00:17:22,000 --> 00:17:26,200
+النهر الذي في وسط النهر فإذا أراد أن يخرج رمى 
+
+177
+00:17:26,200 --> 00:17:32,160
+الرجل بحجر في في فمه فرده حيث كان كل ما هو عاوز 
+
+178
+00:17:32,160 --> 00:17:38,660
+يطلع بيعطيه حجر كده فيدخل في فمه فجعل كل ما جاء 
+
+179
+00:17:38,660 --> 00:17:43,240
+ليخرج رمى في فيه بحجر فيرجع كما كان هذا المشهد 
+
+180
+00:17:43,240 --> 00:17:48,020
+الرابع مشاهد أخرى كثيرة فقلت من هذا هذه النقطة تدل 
+
+181
+00:17:48,020 --> 00:17:51,420
+على أن إيه في مشاهد أخرى يعني لسنا بحاجة إليها 
+
+182
+00:17:51,420 --> 00:17:56,000
+الآن قلت في النهاية النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم يحدث 
+
+183
+00:17:56,000 --> 00:18:02,360
+طوفتمان الليلة فأخبراني عما رأيت أخبراني عن ما رأيت 
+
+184
+00:18:02,360 --> 00:18:08,520
+قال نعم أما الذي رأيته المشهد الأول أما الذي رأيته 
+
+185
+00:18:08,520 --> 00:18:17,640
+يشق شطقه يشق شطقه فكذاب يحدث بالكذبة فتحمل عنه حتى 
+
+186
+00:18:17,640 --> 00:18:24,820
+تبلغ الآفاق هذا هؤلاء صانعوه أو صناع الإشاعات 
+
+187
+00:18:24,820 --> 00:18:32,170
+يكذبوا على المؤمنين يكون الواحد منهم جالس في مجلس 
+
+188
+00:18:32,170 --> 00:18:40,110
+أو راكب في سيارة فيتحدث بأمر ليس له أصل هو مبتدع 
+
+189
+00:18:40,110 --> 00:18:46,490
+له سمعته يقولون كذا وكذا وكذا لم يقل أحد والقصة 
+
+190
+00:18:46,490 --> 00:18:52,990
+ليس لها أصل مطلقا فيسمع الناس هذه القصة أو هذا 
+
+191
+00:18:52,990 --> 00:18:56,850
+الكلام أو هذه الفرية أو هذه الإشاعة فيتناقلونها 
+
+192
+00:18:57,850 --> 00:19:06,290
+يكذب بالكذبة فتحمل عنه حتى تبلغ الآفاق فيصنع به 
+
+193
+00:19:06,290 --> 00:19:12,390
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+
+194
+00:19:12,390 --> 00:19:21,050
+القيامة أين؟ هذا هو عذاب القبر فيصنع به إلى يوم 
+
+195
+00:19:21,050 --> 00:19:28,240
+القيامة مثل هذا العذاب أما من كان في المشهد الثاني 
+
+196
+00:19:28,240 --> 00:19:35,580
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+
+197
+00:19:35,580 --> 00:19:42,410
+القرآن، علمه الله القرآن، كان من قبل هداة الله 
+
+198
+00:19:42,410 --> 00:19:48,570
+تبارك وتعالى وأقبل على كتاب الله فحافظه وعامل به 
+
+199
+00:19:48,570 --> 00:19:54,590
+ثم بدأ شيئا فشيئا يترك هذا القرآن فنام عنه بالليل 
+
+200
+00:19:54,590 --> 00:19:59,090
+ولم يعمل فيه بالنهار بمعنى بدأ ينحرف شيئا فشيئا 
+
+201
+00:19:59,090 --> 00:20:05,730
+يبتعد عن دين الله عذابه من هجر القرآن يفعل به إلى 
+
+202
+00:20:05,730 --> 00:20:11,930
+يوم القيامة الرجل يقف على رأسه بحجر ويشدخه في رأسه 
+
+203
+00:20:11,930 --> 00:20:16,790
+إلى يوم القيامة والمشهد الثالث والذي رأيته في 
+
+204
+00:20:16,790 --> 00:20:24,760
+الثقب فهم الزناة عقوبتهم كما رأينا في قدر من أعلى 
+
+205
+00:20:24,760 --> 00:20:30,280
+ضيق ومن أسفل متسع كلما أرادوا أن يخرجوا فيه منه لا 
+
+206
+00:20:30,280 --> 00:20:35,320
+يتمكنوا من الخروج منه والذي رأيته في النهر آكلوا 
+
+207
+00:20:35,320 --> 00:20:40,950
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+
+208
+00:20:40,950 --> 00:20:45,990
+رجل آخر بجانب النهر كلما أراد هذا الذي في وسط 
+
+209
+00:20:45,990 --> 00:20:51,370
+النهر آكل الربا أن يخرج من هذا النهر الذي من دم 
+
+210
+00:20:51,370 --> 00:20:56,190
+يلقمه الرجل الذي بجانب النهر حجرا في فمه فيعود 
+
+211
+00:20:56,190 --> 00:21:02,110
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+
+212
+00:21:02,110 --> 00:21:06,770
+القيامة إذا هذه بعض المعاصي التي يعذب الإنسان في 
+
+213
+00:21:06,770 --> 00:21:15,220
+قبره بسببها يعذب الإنسان في قبره بسببها وبعد هذا 
+
+214
+00:21:15,220 --> 00:21:20,540
+العرض لهذه المعاصي لنا أن نذكر بعض الأسباب المنجية 
+
+215
+00:21:20,540 --> 00:21:26,800
+من عذاب القبر فبالتأكيد كما أن هذه المعاصي تسبب 
+
+216
+00:21:26,800 --> 00:21:32,060
+لصاحبها عذاب القبر فهناك طاعات وعبادات لو فعلها 
+
+217
+00:21:32,060 --> 00:21:39,640
+الإنسان وتحراها وحرص عليها بالتأكيد ينجو فاعلها من 
+
+218
+00:21:39,640 --> 00:21:45,960
+عذاب القبر، من هذه العبادات الاستعاذة بالله من عذاب 
+
+219
+00:21:45,960 --> 00:21:50,010
+القبر الاستعاذة بالله فقد كان النبي صلى الله عليه 
+
+220
+00:21:50,010 --> 00:21:55,090
+وسلم يستعيذ من ذلك في صلاته وفي غير الصلاة وكان 
+
+221
+00:21:55,090 --> 00:22:00,270
+يأمر أصحابه بذلك فقد أخرج البخاري عن أبي هريرة رضي 
+
+222
+00:22:00,270 --> 00:22:04,990
+الله عنه قال كان صلى الله عليه وسلم يدعو اللهم إني 
+
+223
+00:22:04,990 --> 00:22:09,730
+أعوذ بك من عذاب القبر ومن عذاب النار ومن فتنة 
+
+224
+00:22:09,730 --> 00:22:15,290
+المحيا والممات ومن فتنة المسيح الدجال وقد علمنا 
+
+225
+00:22:15,290 --> 00:22:21,610
+النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم أن ندعو بعد التشهد وقبل 
+
+226
+00:22:21,610 --> 00:22:26,630
+التسليم أن نقول اللهم إني أعوذ بك من عذاب جهنم ومن 
+
+227
+00:22:26,630 --> 00:22:31,050
+عذاب القبر ومن فتنة المحي والممات ومن شر فتنة 
+
+228
+00:22:31,050 --> 00:22:38,650
+المسيح الدجال هذا دعاء لابد أن نداوم عليه فهذا من 
+
+229
+00:22:38,650 --> 00:22:43,570
+هدية نبينا صلى الله عليه وسلم عبادة أخرى الذي 
+
+230
+00:22:43,570 --> 00:22:50,680
+يداوم على قراءة سورة تبارك هذه المنجية من عذاب 
+
+231
+00:22:50,680 --> 00:22:57,380
+القبر، هذه الصورة قراءتها والمداومة عليها تنجي 
+
+232
+00:22:57,380 --> 00:23:02,830
+صاحبها من عذاب القبر فقد أخرج الترمذي عن ابن عباس 
+
+233
+00:23:02,830 --> 00:23:06,870
+رضي الله عنهما قال ضرب بعض أصحاب النبي صلى الله 
+
+234
+00:23:06,870 --> 00:23:12,650
+عليه وسلم خبائه على قبر يعني أراد أن ينام يعني 
+
+235
+00:23:12,650 --> 00:23:17,850
+هنا يعني رأى أنه من المناسب أن يبيت في هذا المكان 
+
+236
+00:23:17,850 --> 00:23:22,130
+وهو لا يحسب أنه قبر هو ما بيعرف لا يعرف أن هنا 
+
+237
+00:23:22,130 --> 00:23:27,530
+هناك إنسان مقبور في هذا المكان فإذا فيه إنسان لما 
+
+238
+00:23:27,530 --> 00:23:32,750
+نام الرجل طوال الليل فإذا فيه إنسان يقرأ سورة 
+
+239
+00:23:32,750 --> 00:23:38,570
+تبارك الذي بيده الملك حتى ختمها طول الليل وهو سامع 
+
+240
+00:23:40,300 --> 00:23:44,980
+بجواره رجل يقرأ سورة التبارك فاستغرب الرجل في 
+
+241
+00:23:44,980 --> 00:23:48,140
+الصباح أتى النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم قال يا رسول 
+
+242
+00:23:48,140 --> 00:23:52,760
+الله إني ضربت خبائي على قبر وأنا لا أحسب أنه قبر 
+
+243
+00:23:52,760 --> 00:23:57,340
+فإذا فيه إنسان يقرأ سورة التبارك الذي بيده الملك 
+
+244
+00:23:57,600 --> 00:24:02,580
+حتى ختمها فقال صلى الله عليه وسلم هنا الشاهد هي 
+
+245
+00:24:02,580 --> 00:24:09,160
+المانعة هي المنجية تنجيه من عذاب القبر فمن داوم 
+
+246
+00:24:09,160 --> 00:24:15,560
+على قراءة سورة تبارك ينجو بحول الله وقوته من عذاب 
+
+247
+00:24:15,560 --> 00:24:21,040
+القبر أيضا من الطاعات والعبادات والأمور المنجية من 
+
+248
+00:24:21,040 --> 00:24:25,880
+عذاب القبر الشهادة في سبيل الله الشهادة في سبيل 
+
+249
+00:24:25,880 --> 00:24:29,960
+الله فقد قال النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم للشهيد عند 
+
+250
+00:24:29,960 --> 00:24:36,360
+الله ستة خصال يغفر له من أول دفعة أول دفعة دم تخرج 
+
+251
+00:24:36,360 --> 00:24:44,900
+من جسده تغفر ذنوبه ويرى مقعده من الجنة ويجار من
+
+252
+00:24:44,900 --> 00:24:50,290
+عذاب القبر وهنا الشاهد ويأمن من الفزع الأكبر ويُوضع 
+
+253
+00:24:50,290 --> 00:24:54,930
+على رأسه تاج الوقار الياقوت منها خير من الدنيا وما
+
+254
+00:24:54,930 --> 00:25:01,210
+فيها ويزوج اثنتين وسبعين زوجة من الحور العين ويشفع
+
+255
+00:25:01,210 --> 00:25:06,850
+في سبعين من أقاربه أيضا من الطاعات الرباط في سبيل
+
+256
+00:25:06,850 --> 00:25:14,230
+الله الرباط في سبيل الله فالمرابط ينجو من عذاب
+
+257
+00:25:14,230 --> 00:25:20,280
+القبر لقول النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم كل ميت يختم على
+
+258
+00:25:20,280 --> 00:25:25,500
+عمله إلا الذي مات مرابطا في سبيل الله فإنه ينم له
+
+259
+00:25:25,500 --> 00:25:32,960
+عمله إلى يوم القيامة ويأمن من فتنة القبر ويأمن من
+
+260
+00:25:32,960 --> 00:25:38,380
+فتنة القبر أيضا الذي يموت يوم الجمعة فالذي يموت
+
+261
+00:25:38,380 --> 00:25:43,710
+يوم الجمعة كما أخبر النبي أيضا ينجو من عذاب القبر
+
+262
+00:25:43,710 --> 00:25:49,050
+لقول النبي ما من مسلم يموت يوم الجمعة أو ليلة
+
+263
+00:25:49,050 --> 00:25:53,530
+الجمعة إلا وقاه الله فتنة القبر طبعا الإنسان لا
+
+264
+00:25:53,530 --> 00:26:00,110
+يموت باختياره ولا يحدد الوقت الذي يموت فيه، لكن
+
+265
+00:26:00,110 --> 00:26:05,370
+هذه من البشائر هذا يبقى هذه من البشارات التي يقيد
+
+266
+00:26:05,370 --> 00:26:09,510
+الله تبارك وتعالى ويقتض أن يموت في هذه الأوقات يوم
+
+267
+00:26:09,510 --> 00:26:14,210
+الجمعة أو ليلة الجمعة، هذه من الفأل الحسن التي
+
+268
+00:26:14,210 --> 00:26:18,870
+يعني يتوقع بمشيئة الله تبارك وتعالى أن يكون مآل
+
+269
+00:26:18,870 --> 00:26:24,180
+هذا الإنسان ينجو من عذاب القبر أن ينجو من عذاب
+
+270
+00:26:24,180 --> 00:26:28,120
+القبر ولكن بشرط أن يكون ملتزما بطريق الصراط
+
+271
+00:26:28,120 --> 00:26:32,500
+المستقيم طريق الإسلام عاملا بهدي الإسلام عاملا
+
+272
+00:26:32,500 --> 00:26:39,020
+بالشريعة ومعتنقا أركان الإسلام وأركان الإيمان الستة
+
+273
+00:26:39,020 --> 00:26:43,290
+كما هو معلوم فبعض الكافرين يموتوا في يوم الجمعة أو
+
+274
+00:26:43,290 --> 00:26:47,770
+ليلة الجمعة لكن لا ينفعهم مثل هذا الأمر الأمر
+
+275
+00:26:47,770 --> 00:26:52,410
+السادس والذي أيضا ينجو صاحبه من عذاب القبر الذي
+
+276
+00:26:52,410 --> 00:26:58,410
+يموت بداء البطن الذي يموت بداء البطن بمرض باطني
+
+277
+00:26:58,410 --> 00:27:04,530
+بمرض باطني فهذا الذي يموت بمرض البطن أيضا ينجو من
+
+278
+00:27:04,530 --> 00:27:09,820
+عذاب القبر بل عده النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم شهيدا
+
+279
+00:27:09,820 --> 00:27:15,360
+قال صلى الله عليه وسلم ما تعدون الشهيد فيكم النبي
+
+280
+00:27:15,360 --> 00:27:20,320
+يسأل الصحاب الكرام رضوان الله عليهم من هو الشهيد
+
+281
+00:27:20,320 --> 00:27:24,420
+فيكم قالوا يا رسول الله من قتل في سبيل الله فهو
+
+282
+00:27:24,420 --> 00:27:29,480
+شهيد هذا هو الأقرب هذا هو الفهم القريب هذا هو
+
+283
+00:27:29,480 --> 00:27:35,560
+الفهم القريب الذي يموت في ساحة المعركة في مواجهة مع
+
+284
+00:27:35,560 --> 00:27:40,640
+الأعداء هو الشهيد فقال النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم إن
+
+285
+00:27:40,640 --> 00:27:46,600
+شهداء أمتي إذا لقليل بحسب كلامكم هذا يكون الشهداء
+
+286
+00:27:46,600 --> 00:27:53,880
+مالهم قلة قالوا فمن هم يا رسول الله قال وعدد النبي
+
+287
+00:27:53,880 --> 00:28:00,920
+الشهداء فالشهادة في الإسلام على مراتب بالحريق شهيد
+
+288
+00:28:00,920 --> 00:28:05,960
+والغريق شهيد ومن قتل في سبيل الله شهيد ومن قتل
+
+289
+00:28:05,960 --> 00:28:09,960
+مبطونا شهيد أيضا فعددا النبي قال من قتل في سبيل
+
+290
+00:28:09,960 --> 00:28:15,600
+الله فهو شهيد ومن مات في سبيل الله فهو شهيد ومن
+
+291
+00:28:15,600 --> 00:28:22,600
+مات في الطاعون فهو شهيد ومن مات في البطن فهو شهيد
+
+292
+00:28:22,600 --> 00:28:30,280
+من مات في البطن من مات بسبب وجع ألم مرض في البطن
+
+293
+00:28:30,280 --> 00:28:36,080
+فهو شهيد قال الإمام النووي عليه رحمة الله وهو
+
+294
+00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:43,340
+يشرح صحيح مسلم وأما المبطون فهو
+
+295
+00:28:43,340 --> 00:28:52,460
+صاحب داء البطن وهو الإسهال هكذا هذا تفسير لكلمة
+
+296
+00:28:52,460 --> 00:28:57,400
+المبطون من أصيب بالإسهال وقيل قال آخر قيل هو الذي
+
+297
+00:28:57,400 --> 00:29:02,060
+به الاستسقاء وانتفاخ البطن وقيل هو الذي تشتكي
+
+298
+00:29:02,060 --> 00:29:12,940
+بطنه وقيل هو الذي يموت بداء بطنه مطلقا مطلقا مطلقا
+
+299
+00:29:12,940 --> 00:29:19,540
+فكلمة ومن مات في البطن فهو شهيد اليوم تسمى عندنا
+
+300
+00:29:19,540 --> 00:29:24,910
+الأمراض الباطنية والأمراض الباطنية كثيرة أسأل الله
+
+301
+00:29:24,910 --> 00:29:30,170
+أن يعافينا ويعافي المسلمين جميعا منها، منها المرض
+
+302
+00:29:30,170 --> 00:29:35,590
+الذي استشرى واستفحل في الأمة الإسلامية وفي غيرها
+
+303
+00:29:35,590 --> 00:29:40,450
+من الأمم السرطان، نسأل الله أن يعافينا وإياكن
+
+304
+00:29:40,450 --> 00:29:46,030
+جميعا من هذا المرض العضال السرطان وما أكثر انتشاره
+
+305
+00:29:46,030 --> 00:29:51,990
+في الأمة والفشل الكلوي والقولون وغيرها من الأمراض
+
+306
+00:29:51,990 --> 00:29:57,970
+الباطنية الصدرية والذبحة والربو وما إلى ذلك هذه
+
+307
+00:29:57,970 --> 00:30:02,670
+أمراض باطنية قال العلماء وإنما كانت هذه الموتات
+
+308
+00:30:02,670 --> 00:30:09,810
+شهادة بتفضل الله تعالى بسبب شدتها وكثرة ألمها فإن
+
+309
+00:30:09,810 --> 00:30:19,060
+صبر صاحبها واحتسب ولم يشك الخالق بالمخلوق ولم
+
+310
+00:30:19,060 --> 00:30:26,100
+يشك هذا المريض بمرضه بالمخلوقين واحتسب الأجر على
+
+311
+00:30:26,100 --> 00:30:30,460
+الله تبارك وتعالى وصبر ورضى بهذا القضاء بقضاء الله
+
+312
+00:30:30,460 --> 00:30:38,320
+وقدره عليه فهو شهيد عند الله تبارك وتعالى ننتقل
+
+313
+00:30:38,320 --> 00:30:44,390
+إلى عنوان آخر أنواع عذاب القبر ونعيمه أنواع العذاب
+
+314
+00:30:44,390 --> 00:30:49,590
+الواقعة لأهل القبور كثيرة يا أخواتي واحد منها تضيق
+
+315
+00:30:49,590 --> 00:30:57,250
+القبر على الميت فما من ميت إلا ويضيق عليه في قبره
+
+316
+00:30:57,250 --> 00:31:04,310
+فقد أخبر النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم أخبر النبي صلى
+
+317
+00:31:04,310 --> 00:31:10,350
+الله عليه وسلم أنه من مأمام أحد صالحا كان أو طالحا
+
+318
+00:31:10,350 --> 00:31:18,250
+ينجو من ضغطة القبر إلا ويضيق عليه في قبره فقد ذكر
+
+319
+00:31:18,250 --> 00:31:25,790
+النبي أن سعد بن معاذ الذي تحرك له العرش وفتحت له
+
+320
+00:31:25,790 --> 00:31:31,670
+أبواب السماء وشهده سبعون ألفا من الملائكة أنه ضم
+
+321
+00:31:31,670 --> 00:31:38,970
+ضمة ثم فرج عنه فما بالك بالاخرين من الناس فما من
+
+322
+00:31:38,970 --> 00:31:43,650
+أحد إلا ويضيق عليه في قبره يضيق عليه بكيفية لا
+
+323
+00:31:43,650 --> 00:31:49,390
+ندريها فلا حجة
+
+324
+00:31:49,390 --> 00:31:55,090
+لمن قال نفتح القبر فلا نجد فيه لا اتساع ولا ضيق
+
+325
+00:31:55,090 --> 00:32:00,360
+وقد رددنا على هذه الشبهة سابقا ف هذا أمر يشعر به
+
+326
+00:32:00,360 --> 00:32:04,320
+الميت، لا يشعر به الأحيان، فتلك حياتها لها كيفيتها
+
+327
+00:32:04,320 --> 00:32:10,100
+وحيثيتها ليست كالحياة الدنيا البتة أيضا من ألوان
+
+328
+00:32:10,100 --> 00:32:14,200
+العذاب، الضرب بمطارق من حديد، فقد أخبر النبي صلى
+
+329
+00:32:14,200 --> 00:32:19,390
+الله عليه وسلم أن الكافر والمنافق عندما يخفق في
+
+330
+00:32:19,390 --> 00:32:24,590
+الإجابة على أسئلة الملائكة ما ربك، ما دينك، ما
+
+331
+00:32:24,590 --> 00:32:29,130
+الرجل الذي بُعِث فيكم، فيقول ها إن ها، لا أدري، ها
+
+332
+00:32:29,130 --> 00:32:32,270
+إن ها، لا أدري، ها إن ها، لا أدري، فيقول له
+
+333
+00:32:32,270 --> 00:32:38,550
+الملائكة لا ضريت ولا تليت، ثم يضرب بمطارق من حديد،
+
+334
+00:32:38,550 --> 00:32:44,210
+ضربة، فيصيح صيحة يسمعها من يليه غير الثقلين، غير
+
+335
+00:32:44,210 --> 00:32:49,650
+الإنس والجن، أيضا من ألوان العذاب يُعرض عليه مقعده
+
+336
+00:32:49,650 --> 00:32:57,830
+بالغداة والعشي يُعذّب في الغداة والعشي قال صلى
+
+337
+00:32:57,830 --> 00:33:01,930
+الله عليه وسلم إن أحدكم إذا مات عُرض عليه مقعده
+
+338
+00:33:01,930 --> 00:33:06,070
+بالغداة والعشي إن كان من أهل الجنة فمن أهل الجنة
+
+339
+00:33:06,070 --> 00:33:10,430
+وإن كان من أهل النار فمن أهل النار فيقال هذا مقعدك
+
+340
+00:33:10,430 --> 00:33:16,550
+حتى يبعثك الله يوم القيامة هذا مقعدك طبعا الكافر
+
+341
+00:33:16,550 --> 00:33:21,830
+والعياذ بالله والمنافق يحزن حزنا شديدا يرى مقعده
+
+342
+00:33:21,830 --> 00:33:27,830
+من الجنة ويرى مقعده من النار هو فقد مقعده في الجنة
+
+343
+00:33:27,830 --> 00:33:31,790
+بسبب معاصيه وما ارتكب من ذنوب في الحياة الدنيا
+
+344
+00:33:33,130 --> 00:33:37,950
+ويُعرض عليه مقعده من النار فيعلم علم اليقين
+
+345
+00:33:37,950 --> 00:33:45,270
+أن هذا المقعد سيخلط فيه ويهان فيه إلى ما لا نهاية
+
+346
+00:33:45,270 --> 00:33:49,970
+أما ألوان النعيم أنواع النعيم التي يمكن أن نتحدث
+
+347
+00:33:49,970 --> 00:33:54,620
+فيها من خلال النصوص الأمر الأول يفسح له في قبره
+
+348
+00:33:54,620 --> 00:33:59,680
+الكافر يضيق عليه في قبره أما المؤمن فيفسح له في
+
+349
+00:33:59,680 --> 00:34:05,060
+قبره فقد أخبر النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم أخبر النبي
+
+350
+00:34:05,060 --> 00:34:09,560
+صلى الله عليه وسلم أن المؤمن إذا أجاب على أسئلة
+
+351
+00:34:09,560 --> 00:34:16,930
+الملكين ما ربك ما دينك ما الرجل الذي بعث فيكم فيجيب
+
+352
+00:34:16,930 --> 00:34:22,110
+عليها بطلاقة و فصاحة تقول له الملائكة قد كنا نعلم
+
+353
+00:34:22,110 --> 00:34:23,330
+أنك تقول هذا
+
+354
+00:34:27,240 --> 00:34:31,660
+ثم يقول له من النعيم يفسح له في قبره سبعين ذراعا
+
+355
+00:34:31,660 --> 00:34:37,560
+في سبعين ثم ينور له فيه ثم يقال له نم فيقول أرجع
+
+356
+00:34:37,560 --> 00:34:43,360
+إلى أهلي فأخبرهم فيقولان نم كنومة العروس الذي لا
+
+357
+00:34:43,360 --> 00:34:48,060
+يوقظه إلا أحب أهله إليه حتى يبعثه الله من مضجعه
+
+358
+00:34:48,060 --> 00:34:53,760
+ذلك أيضا من أنواع النعيم للمؤمنين يفتح له بابا من
+
+359
+00:34:53,760 --> 00:34:58,670
+الجنة يفتح له بابا من الجنة جاء في الحديث أيضا عن
+
+360
+00:34:58,670 --> 00:35:03,270
+النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم فينادي مناد من السماء أن
+
+361
+00:35:03,270 --> 00:35:09,150
+قد صدق عبدي فأفرشوه من الجنة وألبسوه من الجنة
+
+362
+00:35:09,150 --> 00:35:15,850
+وافتحوا له بابا إلى الجنة قال فيأتيه روحها وطيبها
+
+363
+00:35:15,850 --> 00:35:21,030
+ويفتح له فيها مد بصره، أيضا يُعرض عليه مقعده
+
+364
+00:35:21,030 --> 00:35:27,630
+بالغداة والعشي، فيفرح فرحًا شديدًا بأنه نجى من
+
+365
+00:35:27,630 --> 00:35:32,280
+مقعده من النار، ويفرح فرحًا شديدًا عندما يعلم أنه
+
+366
+00:35:32,280 --> 00:35:37,740
+سيخلط في هذا المقعد من الجنة يفرح فرحا شديدا فأهل
+
+367
+00:35:37,740 --> 00:35:42,800
+الجنة المؤمنون يزيدون فرحا المؤمن عندما يرى مقعده
+
+368
+00:35:42,800 --> 00:35:47,340
+من الجنة يقول رب عجل بقيام الساعة الكافر عندما يرى
+
+369
+00:35:47,340 --> 00:35:51,500
+مقعده من النار يقول رب لا تقم الساعة لأن إذا كان
+
+370
+00:35:51,500 --> 00:35:58,260
+هذا هو البداية فما بالك بما سيكون بعد ذلك ولا لأ
+
+371
+00:35:58,260 --> 00:36:02,500
+أن نتساءل بعد ذلك في نهاية المطاف في الحديث في
+
+372
+00:36:02,500 --> 00:36:07,920
+الحياة البرزخية يا ترى عذاب القبر دائم أم منقطع؟
+
+373
+00:36:07,920 --> 00:36:13,360
+دائم أم منقطع؟ أجاب على هذا السؤال ابن قيم الجوزية
+
+374
+00:36:13,360 --> 00:36:18,940
+ابن القيم عليه رحمة الله أجاب قال هما نوعان عذاب
+
+375
+00:36:18,940 --> 00:36:29,270
+القبر نوعان دائم نوع دائم يدل على دوامه هو دائم إلى
+
+376
+00:36:29,270 --> 00:36:34,290
+قيام الساعة يدل على دوامه قول الله تبارك وتعالى
+
+377
+00:36:34,290 --> 00:36:39,610
+النار يُعرضون عليها غدوا وعشية ويوم تقوم الساعة
+
+378
+00:36:39,610 --> 00:36:45,770
+أدخلوا آل فرعون أشد العذاب فهذا يعني ما أخبر به
+
+379
+00:36:45,770 --> 00:36:50,850
+الله تبارك وتعالى عن آل فرعون أنهم يُعرضون على
+
+380
+00:36:50,850 --> 00:36:56,560
+النار غدوا وعشية وقبل قليل في رواية البخاري في رؤية
+
+381
+00:36:56,560 --> 00:37:01,040
+النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم كان يقول يفعل به إلى يوم
+
+382
+00:37:01,040 --> 00:37:06,840
+القيامة يفعل به ذلك إلى يوم القيامة يفعل به ذلك
+
+383
+00:37:06,840 --> 00:37:12,400
+إلى يوم القيامة فهذا نوع من العذاب دائم يبقى حتى
+
+384
+00:37:12,400 --> 00:37:17,360
+تقوم الساعة حتى يخرج هذا الميت من قبره هذا الكافر 
+
+385
+00:37:17,540 --> 00:37:22,160
+من قبره ليحاسب أمام الله تبارك وتعالى على معاصيه
+
+386
+00:37:22,160 --> 00:37:26,740
+أما النوع الثاني فهو منقطع يعني يبقى إلى مدة ثم
+
+387
+00:37:26,740 --> 00:37:32,460
+ينقطع يبقى هذا العذاب إلى مدة ثم ينقطع وهو عذاب
+
+388
+00:37:32,460 --> 00:37:41,600
+بعض العصاة الذين خفت جرائمهم فيعذب بحسب جرمه عصاة
+
+389
+00:37:41,600 --> 00:37:48,470
+المؤمنين الذين خلطوا عملا صالحا بآخر سيئا هؤلاء
+
+390
+00:37:48,470 --> 00:37:55,090
+يعذبون بحسب جرمهم ثم يخفف عنهم يخفف عنهم كما يعذب
+
+391
+00:37:55,090 --> 00:37:59,370
+في النار مدة في الآخرة ثم يزول عنه العذاب أيضا في
+
+392
+00:37:59,370 --> 00:38:06,050
+القبر يعذب ثم يزول عنه العذاب وقد ينقطع عنه العذاب
+
+393
+00:38:06,050 --> 00:38:14,410
+بدعاء بدعائنا لآبائنا وأمهاتنا لأمواتنا بالدعاء أو
+
+394
+00:38:14,410 --> 00:38:22,430
+صدقة يتصدق بها المرء في حياته عن أمه عن أبيه يبني
+
+395
+00:38:22,430 --> 00:38:31,190
+مسجد يطعن جائع يتصدق ببناء
+
+396
+00:38:31,190 --> 00:38:37,710
+مستوصف أو أن يعمل عمل خيري بدعاء أو صدقة أو
+
+397
+00:38:37,710 --> 00:38:44,750
+استغفار فلنا أن نستغفر لبعض للبعض لن نطلب المغفرة
+
+398
+00:38:44,750 --> 00:38:51,610
+لآبائنا وأمهاتنا أو ثواب حج فلن نحج عن أبائنا
+
+399
+00:38:51,610 --> 00:38:56,570
+وأمهاتنا الذين لم يؤدوا هذا الواجب أو قراءة قراءة
+
+400
+00:38:56,570 --> 00:39:03,740
+القرآن تصلوا إلى بعض أقاربه أو غيرهم فلنا أن نقرأ
+
+401
+00:39:03,740 --> 00:39:08,660
+القرآن لنا أن نحج عن أمواتنا لنا أن نستغفر لهم لنا
+
+402
+00:39:08,660 --> 00:39:14,340
+أن ندعو لهم بالرحمة وأن يرحمنا سبحانه وتعالى معهم
+
+403
+00:39:14,340 --> 00:39:18,240
+أقول قول هذا وأستغفر الله لي ولكم والسلام عليكم
+
+404
+00:39:18,240 --> 00:39:19,480
+ورحمة الله وبركاته
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/5UnVLOP-Pk8_raw.json b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/5UnVLOP-Pk8_raw.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..d19c289e6bc878aca1af92fe95ddef95671682af
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/5UnVLOP-Pk8_raw.json
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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{"start": 70.26, "end": 70.74, "word": " الإنسان", "probability": 0.988037109375}, {"start": 70.74, "end": 70.9, "word": " في", "probability": 0.9931640625}, {"start": 70.9, "end": 71.54, "word": " حياته", "probability": 0.9952392578125}, {"start": 71.54, "end": 72.44, "word": " من", "probability": 0.9462890625}, {"start": 72.44, "end": 72.72, "word": " هذه", "probability": 0.97509765625}, {"start": 72.72, "end": 73.42, "word": " المعاصي", "probability": 0.985107421875}, {"start": 73.42, "end": 74.74, "word": " واحد", "probability": 0.968017578125}, {"start": 74.74, "end": 76.2, "word": " عدم", "probability": 0.88671875}, {"start": 76.2, "end": 76.78, "word": " الاستطار", "probability": 0.9342041015625}, {"start": 76.78, "end": 76.96, "word": " من", "probability": 0.99462890625}, {"start": 76.96, "end": 77.4, "word": " البول", "probability": 0.97265625}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 3, "seek": 10810, "start": 78.4, "end": 108.1, "text": "والمشي بالنميمة عدم الاستطار من البول والمشي 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diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/7qbanuawrMQ_raw.json b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/7qbanuawrMQ_raw.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..c5897aeb2465f73a16bd4cf68d6845f82953df37
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@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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15042, 4724, 9566, 1863, 5551, 39648, 12174, 12610, 1829, 23758, 36725, 14851, 17082, 5172, 2288, 21984, 32239, 4032, 23275, 2304, 16070, 3794, 37440, 25894, 24793, 4032, 2288, 35571, 3660, 21984, 4032, 26890, 4117, 9307, 3224], "avg_logprob": -0.10644531046802347, "compression_ratio": 1.4766355140186915, "no_speech_prob": 3.159046173095703e-06, "words": [{"start": 2296.9, "end": 2297.16, "word": "ما", "probability": 0.82568359375}, {"start": 2297.16, "end": 2297.5, "word": " ظهر", "probability": 0.9686279296875}, {"start": 2297.5, "end": 2297.78, "word": " منها", "probability": 0.96875}, {"start": 2297.78, "end": 2298.02, "word": " وما", "probability": 0.907958984375}, {"start": 2298.02, "end": 2298.48, "word": " بطن", "probability": 0.9816080729166666}, {"start": 2298.48, "end": 2298.9, "word": " أقول", "probability": 0.67626953125}, {"start": 2298.9, "end": 2299.32, "word": " قولي", "probability": 0.92822265625}, {"start": 2299.32, "end": 2299.56, "word": " هذا", "probability": 0.97607421875}, {"start": 2299.56, "end": 2300.2, "word": " وأستغفر", "probability": 0.894140625}, {"start": 2300.2, "end": 2300.4, "word": " الله", "probability": 0.9794921875}, {"start": 2300.4, "end": 2300.54, "word": " لي", "probability": 0.91650390625}, {"start": 2300.54, "end": 2301.08, "word": " ولكم", "probability": 0.966796875}, {"start": 2301.08, "end": 2301.9, "word": " والسلام", "probability": 0.8321940104166666}, {"start": 2301.9, "end": 2302.4, "word": " عليكم", "probability": 0.980712890625}, {"start": 2302.4, "end": 2302.9, "word": " ورحمة", "probability": 0.99267578125}, {"start": 2302.9, "end": 2303.18, "word": " الله", "probability": 0.98095703125}, {"start": 2303.18, "end": 2303.76, "word": " وبركاته", "probability": 0.845068359375}], "temperature": 1.0}], "language": "ar", "language_probability": 1.0, "duration": 2303.81425, "duration_after_vad": 2236.553124999994}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/B7jOIJptsr4.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/B7jOIJptsr4.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..eadd144207c777fa51f519c4c408a5ba4eb58ed5
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/B7jOIJptsr4.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1347 @@
+1
+00:00:21,480 --> 00:00:24,480
+أعوذ بالله السميع العلي من الشيطان الرجيم بسم الله
+
+2
+00:00:24,480 --> 00:00:29,200
+الرحمن الرحيم الحمد لله رب العالمين وأصلي وأسلم 
+
+3
+00:00:29,200 --> 00:00:32,940
+على رسول الله الأمين محمد بن عبد الله الصادق
+
+4
+00:00:32,940 --> 00:00:36,940
+الأمين صلى الله عليه وعلى آله وصحبه وسلم أجمعين
+
+5
+00:00:36,940 --> 00:00:41,220
+اللهم لا سهل إلا ما جعلته سهلًا وانت تجعل الحزن إن
+
+6
+00:00:41,220 --> 00:00:45,500
+شئت سهلًا اللهم علمنا ما ينفعنا وانفعنا بما علمتنا
+
+7
+00:00:45,500 --> 00:00:50,700
+وزدنا علمًا إنك أنت العليم الحكيم وبعد، نستكمل تفصيل
+
+8
+00:00:50,700 --> 00:00:55,900
+أحداث اليوم الآخر اليوم بمشيئة الله تبارك وتعالى
+
+9
+00:00:55,900 --> 00:01:01,720
+نتكلم في الحوض ثم الصراط ثم إن أسعفنا الوقت نتكلم
+
+10
+00:01:01,720 --> 00:01:08,160
+في الشفاعة بمشيئة الله تبارك وتعالى، إذا أول حديثنا
+
+11
+00:01:08,160 --> 00:01:13,700
+سيكون عن الحوض فالحوض
+
+12
+00:01:14,910 --> 00:01:24,150
+لفظ يطلق على ما يجمع فيه الماء والحوض الذي أعطاه 
+
+13
+00:01:24,150 --> 00:01:29,510
+الله تعالى لنبينا صلى الله عليه وسلم ثابت في 
+
+14
+00:01:29,510 --> 00:01:36,690
+الأحاديث الصحيحة، حوض لنبينا صلى الله عليه وسلم جاء
+
+15
+00:01:36,690 --> 00:01:42,270
+ذكره في أحاديث النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم التي رواها
+
+16
+00:01:43,210 --> 00:01:48,650
+جم غفير من الصحابة الكرام ما يزيد عن ثلاثين صحابيًّا
+
+17
+00:01:48,650 --> 00:01:55,510
+من الصحابة الكرام يذكرون أعدادًا هائلة من الأحاديث
+
+18
+00:01:55,510 --> 00:02:00,570
+التي تتكلم عن هذا الموضوع تحديدًا، هذا يعني أن
+
+19
+00:02:00,570 --> 00:02:07,080
+أحاديث الحوض بلغت حد التواتر، بلغت حد التواتر. طبعًا 
+
+20
+00:02:07,080 --> 00:02:13,100
+لا يخلو كتاب من كتب الصحاح والسنن إلا وتذكر فيه
+
+21
+00:02:13,100 --> 00:02:17,960
+هذه الحديث عن النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم، وابن كثير
+
+22
+00:02:17,960 --> 00:02:26,290
+عليه رحمة الله استقصاها، ذكرها كاملةً في آخر كتابه 
+
+23
+00:02:26,290 --> 00:02:31,570
+البداية والنهاية، سنذكر بعض هذه الحديث، منها عن عبد
+
+24
+00:02:31,570 --> 00:02:34,950
+الله بن عمرو بن العاص قال صلى الله عليه وسلم: حوض
+
+25
+00:02:34,950 --> 00:02:39,910
+مسيرة شهر، وزواياه
+
+26
+00:02:39,910 --> 00:02:47,290
+سواء، يعني المسافة من الزاوية للأخرى متساوية، متساوية
+
+27
+00:02:47,290 --> 00:02:51,670
+للزاوية بين بين زاوية وزاوية أخرى، لمعنى كأنه مربع
+
+28
+00:02:51,670 --> 00:02:56,690
+يعني، وماءه أبيض من الورق وريحه أطيب من المسك
+
+29
+00:02:56,690 --> 00:03:04,130
+وكيزانه كنجوم
+
+30
+00:03:04,130 --> 00:03:09,990
+السماء، فمن شرب منه فلا يظمأ بعده أبدًا، نسأل الله
+
+31
+00:03:09,990 --> 00:03:15,830
+ألا يحرمنا من ذلك، عن أبي ذر قال رضوان الله عليه: قلت
+
+32
+00:03:15,830 --> 00:03:19,670
+يا رسول الله ما آنية الحوض؟ الآنية هي الكيزان
+
+33
+00:03:19,670 --> 00:03:24,450
+والكيزان هي الآنية، قال والذي نفس محمد بيده لآنيته
+
+34
+00:03:24,450 --> 00:03:30,930
+أكثر من عدد نجوم السماء وكواكبها، بمعنى أن من يرد
+
+35
+00:03:30,930 --> 00:03:41,180
+على الحوض لن يحتار، سيجد إناء يغترف به فيشرب، فكيزانه 
+
+36
+00:03:41,180 --> 00:03:46,520
+أو قانيته كثيرة كعدد نجوم السماء وكواكبها، ألا في
+
+37
+00:03:46,520 --> 00:03:52,240
+الليلة المظلمة المصحية، قانية الجنة، من شرب منها لم 
+
+38
+00:03:52,240 --> 00:03:59,140
+يظمأ آخر ما عليه من شرب، لا يظمأ بعدها أبدًا، يشخب فيه
+
+39
+00:03:59,140 --> 00:04:05,650
+ميزابان، بمعنى يصب فيه ميزابان من الجنة، من شرب منه
+
+40
+00:04:05,650 --> 00:04:13,450
+لم يظن عرضه مثل طوله كما قلنا كأنه شكل رباعي، ما
+
+41
+00:04:13,450 --> 00:04:20,570
+بين عمان إلى إيليا، وهذا النص، هذا الجزء من الحديث
+
+42
+00:04:20,570 --> 00:04:26,690
+جاء بروايات متعددة، جاء بروايات متعددة، هنا ما بين
+
+43
+00:04:26,690 --> 00:04:32,910
+عمان إلى إيليا، يعني كأن اتساع أو المسافة بين زاوية
+
+44
+00:04:32,910 --> 00:04:37,790
+و زاوية ما بين عمان إلى إيليا، وإيليا هي مدينة من
+
+45
+00:04:37,790 --> 00:04:43,090
+مدن الشام، فلاحظ المسافة الكبيرة، و هناك نصوص أخرى
+
+46
+00:04:43,090 --> 00:04:47,610
+يذكر فيها النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم ما بين عمان إلى
+
+47
+00:04:47,610 --> 00:04:53,450
+حضر موت، أيضًا مسافة كبيرة إلى آخره من النصوص، وكأن
+
+48
+00:04:53,450 --> 00:05:00,970
+النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم ذكر حوضه أمام صحاب كثر من
+
+49
+00:05:00,970 --> 00:05:07,350
+بلدان عدة، من عدة بلدان، فذكر لهم النبي صلى الله
+
+50
+00:05:07,350 --> 00:05:11,490
+عليه وسلم المسافات التي يعرفونها بين تلك البلدان
+
+51
+00:05:11,490 --> 00:05:17,510
+كأنه ذكر لهم المسافات التي يعلمونها، فإذا كانوا من
+
+52
+00:05:17,510 --> 00:05:21,910
+أهل اليمن مثلاً، إذا كانوا من أهل اليمن قال لهم من
+
+53
+00:05:21,910 --> 00:05:26,850
+عمان إلى حضرموت مثلاً، إذا كانوا من أهل الشام قال لهم
+
+54
+00:05:26,850 --> 00:05:31,790
+من عمان إلى إيليا، وهكذا، ماءه أشد بياضًا من اللبن
+
+55
+00:05:31,790 --> 00:05:36,350
+وأحلى من العسل، أيضًا في الحديث، بينما رسول الله صلى
+
+56
+00:05:36,350 --> 00:05:39,250
+الله عليه وسلم ذات يوم بين أظهرنا، هذا الحديث يرويه
+
+57
+00:05:39,250 --> 00:05:45,310
+أنس بن مالك رضوان الله عليهما، ذَا أغفى أغفاه النبي 
+
+58
+00:05:45,310 --> 00:05:51,770
+بينهم، و أغفى أغفاه ثم رفع رأسه متبسمًا، فقلنا يا
+
+59
+00:05:51,770 --> 00:05:56,410
+رسول الله ما أضحكك، ما أضحكك يا رسول الله؟ قال: أنزلت
+
+60
+00:05:56,410 --> 00:06:01,510
+علي آنفًا صورة الكوثر، صورة فقرأها صلى الله عليه
+
+61
+00:06:01,510 --> 00:06:06,970
+وسلم: بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم، إن أعطيناك الكوثر فصلي
+
+62
+00:06:06,970 --> 00:06:13,110
+لربك وانحر، إن شانئك هو الأبتر، ثم قالت، درون ما
+
+63
+00:06:13,110 --> 00:06:20,150
+الكوثر؟ فقلنا: الله ورسوله أعلى، قال: فإنه نهر وعدني إياه
+
+64
+00:06:20,150 --> 00:06:27,870
+ربي عز وجل، عليه خير كثير، هو حوض ترد عليه أمتي، طبعًا 
+
+65
+00:06:27,870 --> 00:06:36,060
+نستفيد من هذا الحديث أن المصدر الذي يأتي منه ماء
+
+66
+00:06:36,060 --> 00:06:43,840
+الحوض هو نهر الكوثر، فنهر الكوثر يشخب أو يصب في حوض
+
+67
+00:06:43,840 --> 00:06:49,080
+النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم، بمعنى علاقته الحوض علاقة
+
+68
+00:06:49,080 --> 00:06:55,560
+الكوثر بالحوض، الكوثر نهر الكوثر هو مصدر، المصدر
+
+69
+00:06:55,560 --> 00:07:00,460
+المائي، إنجاز التعبير، لماء الحوض، لحوض النبي صلى
+
+70
+00:07:00,460 --> 00:07:05,650
+الله عليه وسلم، هو حوض ترد عليه أمة يوم القيامة، آنية
+
+71
+00:07:05,650 --> 00:07:13,420
+عدد النجوم، فيختلج، يمنع، يمنع، يحجز العبد منهم فأقول
+
+72
+00:07:13,420 --> 00:07:19,800
+ربي إنه من أمتي، فيقول: ما تدري ما أحدثت بعدك، الذي
+
+73
+00:07:19,800 --> 00:07:25,960
+يتلخص في موضوع الحوض أنه حوض عظيم ومورد كريم يمد
+
+74
+00:07:25,960 --> 00:07:31,600
+من شراب الجنة من نهر الكوثر، من نهر الكوثر الذي هو
+
+75
+00:07:31,600 --> 00:07:37,340
+أشد بياضًا من اللبن، هذا ماء الكوثر، وماء الكوثر يصب
+
+76
+00:07:37,340 --> 00:07:42,230
+في الحوض، الذي هو أشد بياضًا من اللبن وأبرض من الثلج
+
+77
+00:07:42,230 --> 00:07:46,930
+وأحلى من العسل وأطيب ريحًا من المسك، وهو في غاية
+
+78
+00:07:46,930 --> 00:07:52,330
+الاتساع، عرضه وطوله سواء، كل زاوية من زوايا مسيرة
+
+79
+00:07:52,330 --> 00:07:58,210
+شهر، في بعض الأحاديث جاء أنه كلما شرب منه وهو في
+
+80
+00:07:58,210 --> 00:08:06,020
+زيادة واتساع، الأشياء عادة كلما أخذ منها تنقصب، قدرة
+
+81
+00:08:06,020 --> 00:08:11,460
+الله تبارك وتعالى، كلما شرب من حوض النبي هو في
+
+82
+00:08:11,460 --> 00:08:17,060
+زيادة واتسافة، سبحان الخالق الذي لا يعجزه شيء، ورضى
+
+83
+00:08:17,060 --> 00:08:25,320
+أيضًا في موضوع الحوض أن لكل نبي حوض، وأن حوض نبينا
+
+84
+00:08:25,320 --> 00:08:31,840
+أعظمها وأحلاها وأكثرها واردًا، جعلنا الله وإياكنا
+
+85
+00:08:31,840 --> 00:08:40,320
+منهم بفضله وكرمه، العنوان الذي بين أيدينا الآن
+
+86
+00:08:40,320 --> 00:08:45,640
+الذين يطردون عن الحوض، فقد أخبر النبي صلى الله عليه
+
+87
+00:08:45,640 --> 00:08:50,780
+وسلم أن أناسًا يطردون عن الحوض، وهم من أمة النبي
+
+88
+00:08:50,780 --> 00:08:57,620
+محمد صلى الله عليه وسلم، والحوض حقيقة مكانه قبل
+
+89
+00:08:57,620 --> 00:09:01,580
+الصراط، وليس
+
+90
+00:09:01,580 --> 00:09:10,360
+بعد الصراط، فهذا الحوض هو نعمة من الله تبارك وتعالى
+
+91
+00:09:10,360 --> 00:09:19,020
+جعلها للمؤمنين يشربون منه صلى الله عليه وسلم، وذلك
+
+92
+00:09:19,020 --> 00:09:25,760
+تخفيفًا عنهم من العنت الذي لاقوه في أرض المحشر في
+
+93
+00:09:25,760 --> 00:09:30,840
+الموقف العظيم، وهم ينتظرون القضاء من أحكم الحاكمين
+
+94
+00:09:30,840 --> 00:09:33,960
+فيردون
+
+95
+00:09:33,960 --> 00:09:39,440
+حوض النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم، لكن أناسًا من أمة النبي
+
+96
+00:09:39,440 --> 00:09:44,320
+صلى الله عليه وسلم يحجزون ويمنعون عن ورود الحوض
+
+97
+00:09:44,320 --> 00:09:48,500
+كما أخبره النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم في أحاديث كثيرة
+
+98
+00:09:48,500 --> 00:09:54,280
+وهذه الأحاديث صحيحة، أخرج البخاري عن أنس رضي الله
+
+99
+00:09:54,280 --> 00:10:00,580
+عنه عن النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم: ليردن عليّ ناس من
+
+100
+00:10:00,580 --> 00:10:07,710
+أصحابي، لا يردن عليّ ناس من أصحابي الحوض حتى إذا
+
+101
+00:10:07,710 --> 00:10:13,990
+عرفتهم اختلجوا دوني مُنعوا، فأقول: أصحابي، فيقول
+
+102
+00:10:13,990 --> 00:10:19,550
+تقول الملائكة له: لا تدري ما أحدثوا بعدك، أيضًا من 
+
+103
+00:10:19,550 --> 00:10:22,850
+الأحاديث في هذا السياق، قول النبي صلى الله عليه
+
+104
+00:10:22,850 --> 00:10:30,090
+وسلم: إني على الحوض، بمعنى إني سابقكم على الحوض حتى
+
+105
+00:10:30,090 --> 00:10:36,920
+أنظر من يرد عليّ منكم، وسيأخذ أناس دوني. فأقول: يا رب
+
+106
+00:10:36,920 --> 00:10:41,640
+مني ومن أمتي. فيقول: تقول له الملائكة: أما شعرت ما
+
+107
+00:10:41,640 --> 00:10:47,480
+عملوا بعدك، والله ما برحوا بعدك يرجعون على أعقابهم. 
+
+108
+00:10:48,320 --> 00:10:52,700
+يعني لم ينتظموا الصراط المستقيم. لم يتمروا بما
+
+109
+00:10:52,700 --> 00:10:58,500
+أمرت، ولم ينتهوا عما نهيت. لم يلتزموا هدي القرآن
+
+110
+00:10:58,500 --> 00:11:05,170
+الكريم. وما تركت من السنة النبوية، كما ذكر النبي
+
+111
+00:11:05,170 --> 00:11:10,670
+تركت فيكم ما إن تمسكتم به لم تظلوا بعدي أبدًا، كتاب
+
+112
+00:11:10,670 --> 00:11:17,130
+الله وسنتي، لم يلتزم هذا الصراط، أيضًا من الحديث سمعت
+
+113
+00:11:17,130 --> 00:11:23,500
+هذا الحديث، نرويه، يرويه البخاري ومسلم عن يعقوب بن عبد
+
+114
+00:11:23,500 --> 00:11:28,640
+الرحمن عن أبي حازم، أبي حازم يقول: سمعت سهل بن سعد
+
+115
+00:11:28,640 --> 00:11:32,660
+يقول: سمعت النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم يقول: أنا فرطكم
+
+116
+00:11:32,660 --> 00:11:38,120
+على الحوض، أنا سابقكم على الحوض، من ورده شرب منه، ومن
+
+117
+00:11:38,120 --> 00:11:43,480
+شرب منه لم يظمأ بعده أبدًا، ولا يردن عليّ أقوام
+
+118
+00:11:43,480 --> 00:11:52,440
+أعرفهم ويعرفونني، الشاهد، ثم يحال بيني وبينهم، يحال
+
+119
+00:11:52,440 --> 00:11:59,940
+بيني وبينهم، أي نعم، فطبعًا يقول النبي صلى الله عليه
+
+120
+00:11:59,940 --> 00:12:04,000
+و سلم: إنهم مني، فيقول: إنك لا تدري ما بدلوا بعدك
+
+121
+00:12:04,000 --> 00:12:09,560
+فأقول: صحقًا صحقًا لمن بدل بعدي، ماذا يعني التفديل بعد
+
+122
+00:12:09,560 --> 00:12:13,160
+النبي صلى الله عليه و سلم؟ قال علماء رحمة الله
+
+123
+00:12:13,160 --> 00:12:16,440
+عليهم أجمعين، كل من ارتد عن دين الله
+
+124
+00:12:19,260 --> 00:12:26,780
+من أنعم الله عز وجل عليه بنعمة الهداية ثم نقص على 
+
+125
+00:12:26,780 --> 00:12:34,660
+عقبه وترك هذا الدين، من تفضل الله عز وجل عليه 
+
+126
+00:12:34,660 --> 00:12:40,000
+فمكنه من حفظ كتاب الله ثم ترك ما حفظ هجر القرآن
+
+127
+00:12:40,000 --> 00:12:47,620
+الكريم فلم يتابع حفظه لكتاب الله ولم يعمل بما في
+
+128
+00:12:47,620 --> 00:12:52,200
+كتابه، لمن منا الله عز وجل عليه ومكنه من صلاة
+
+129
+00:12:52,200 --> 00:12:56,860
+الفجر ثم ترك الصلاة، لمن منا الله عز وجل عليها بلبس
+
+130
+00:12:56,860 --> 00:13:03,420
+الحجاب، ثم تركت الحجاب، لمن منا الله عليه بالصحة،
+
+131
+00:13:03,420 --> 00:13:08,320
+فصلى، صلى المأمورة، صلى الفرض، وترك السنة، كل من
+
+132
+00:13:08,320 --> 00:13:12,940
+ارتد عن دين الله أو أحدث فيه ما لا يرضاه الله، ولم 
+
+133
+00:13:12,940 --> 00:13:18,150
+يأذن به الله، ولئك الذين ابتدعوا في دين الله تبارك
+
+134
+00:13:18,150 --> 00:13:22,370
+وتعالى وأدخلوا في الدين ما لم يأذن به الله تبارك
+
+135
+00:13:22,370 --> 00:13:27,090
+وتعالى، ولئك الذين انحرفوا عن دين الله تبارك
+
+136
+00:13:27,090 --> 00:13:32,730
+وتعالى، جروا وراء شبهات ما أنزل الله عز وجل بها من 
+
+137
+00:13:32,730 --> 00:13:40,030
+سلطان، تلك الفرق الضالة، تلك الفرق الضالة التي تنتسب
+
+138
+00:13:40,030 --> 00:13:44,450
+إلى الإسلام وليست منه، كل هؤلاء مطرودين عن حوض
+
+139
+00:13:44,450 --> 00:13:49,730
+النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم، مبعدين عنه، مبعدين عن
+
+140
+00:13:49,730 --> 00:13:55,540
+هذا الحوض، حكم الإيمان بالحوض، الإيمان به واجب حقيقة
+
+141
+00:13:55,540 --> 00:14:02,200
+فكما قلت، الأحاديث التي ورد فيها ذكر الحوض، حوض
+
+142
+00:14:02,200 --> 00:14:06,060
+النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم، رواها أكثر من ثلاثين
+
+143
+00:14:06,060 --> 00:14:13,900
+صحابي، بل مر علي أنه رواها أكثر من خمسين صحابي، هذا
+
+144
+00:14:13,900 --> 00:14:19,070
+يدل على أنها بلغت حد التواتر، فهي من الأحاديث
+
+145
+00:14:19,070 --> 00:14:23,910
+الصريحة الصحيحة التي تثبت حوض النبي صلى الله عليه
+
+146
+00:14:23,910 --> 00:14:29,090
+وسلم، كما قال القاضي عياد، أحاديث الحوض الصحيحة
+
+147
+00:14:29,090 --> 00:14:35,730
+والإيمان به فرض، والتصديق به من الإيمان، التصديق به
+
+148
+00:14:35,730 --> 00:14:41,050
+من الإيمان، الإيمان به فرض، والتصديق به من الإيمان
+
+149
+00:14:41,050 --> 00:14:47,060
+بمعنى أن ما جاء في هذه الأحاديث تشكل عندنا عقيدة لا
+
+150
+00:14:47,060 --> 00:14:51,720
+تنازل عنها ولا تردد ولا شك فيها، وهو على ظاهره
+
+151
+00:14:51,720 --> 00:14:59,040
+بمعنى أن نصوص الحوض تحمل على ظاهرها أنها حوض، حوض
+
+152
+00:14:59,040 --> 00:15:07,640
+حقيقي يجمع مياه نهر الكوثر، يصب فيه نهر الكوثر، فنهر
+
+153
+00:15:07,640 --> 00:15:13,100
+الكوثر هو مصدر مياه الحوض، فهو على ظاهره عند أهل
+
+154
+00:15:13,100 --> 00:15:17,840
+السنة لا يتأول ولا يختلف فيه، ما يجوز أن نقول
+
+155
+00:15:17,840 --> 00:15:22,920
+والله الحوض هو لعله واحة خضراء يتفيئوا ظلالها
+
+156
+00:15:22,920 --> 00:15:26,820
+المؤمنون، هكذا نقوله يعني، نحمله عليا معناه آخر.
+
+157
+00:15:27,120 --> 00:15:34,930
+النبي قال حوض يعني حوض تجمع فيه المياه، المياه هي
+
+158
+00:15:34,930 --> 00:15:39,270
+مياه نهر الكوثر، أعطيت الله لنبيه صلى الله عليه
+
+159
+00:15:39,270 --> 00:15:44,330
+وسلم، إن أعطيناك الكوثر، نهر وعدنيه ربي في الجنة
+
+160
+00:15:44,330 --> 00:15:48,330
+ما هو هذا النهر؟ يصب في الحوض، هكذا يجب أن نعتقد في
+
+161
+00:15:48,330 --> 00:15:55,050
+الكوثر وفي الحوض، وحديثه متواتر النقل، رواه حديث
+
+162
+00:15:55,050 --> 00:16:00,810
+الحوض رواه خلائق من الصحابة، عدد كبير من الصحابة
+
+163
+00:16:00,810 --> 00:16:01,230
+تذكره
+
+164
+00:16:06,410 --> 00:16:12,730
+الصراط، الصراط لغة الطريق الواضح، من صراط الشيء إذا
+
+165
+00:16:12,730 --> 00:16:17,790
+ابتلعته، ممكن أن تلفظ بالصاد وممكن أن تلفظ بالسين
+
+166
+00:16:17,790 --> 00:16:25,670
+وأن هذا صراطي مستقيما فاتبعوه، الصراط اصطلاحا هو
+
+167
+00:16:25,670 --> 00:16:33,460
+جسر ممدود على متن جهنم، يرده الأولون والآخرون، فهو
+
+168
+00:16:33,460 --> 00:16:42,780
+قنطرة، قنطرة جهنم بين الجنة والنار، إذا هو جسر يضرب
+
+169
+00:16:42,780 --> 00:16:52,420
+على متن جهنم أو يمد على متن جهنم، على وجه جهنم يرده
+
+170
+00:16:52,420 --> 00:16:58,220
+بمعنى يمر عليه الأولون والآخرون، كل بحسب إيمانه
+
+171
+00:16:58,220 --> 00:17:06,350
+وعمله والتزامه في الدنيا، وبالتأكيد من التزم الصراط
+
+172
+00:17:06,350 --> 00:17:14,730
+المستقيم في الدنيا، أمكنه ذلك، ساعده ذلك، ثبته الله
+
+173
+00:17:14,730 --> 00:17:20,530
+تبارك وتعالى يوم القيامة حين مروره على الصراط
+
+174
+00:17:20,530 --> 00:17:26,910
+المضروب على متن جهنم، من التزم الصراط المستقيم، من
+
+175
+00:17:26,910 --> 00:17:31,650
+التزم طريقة الإسلام، فنحن في كل صلاة، في كل ركعة،
+
+176
+00:17:31,650 --> 00:17:38,090
+نقول اهدنا الصراط المستقيم، صراط الذين أنعمت
+
+177
+00:17:38,090 --> 00:17:43,890
+عليهم، صراط الذين أنعمت عليهم، من النبيين
+
+178
+00:17:43,890 --> 00:17:49,470
+والصديقين والشهداء، وحسن أولئك رفيقة، يا رب، غير
+
+179
+00:17:49,470 --> 00:17:56,930
+المغضوب عليهم، ليس صراط ولا طريق اليهود الذين غضبت
+
+180
+00:17:56,930 --> 00:18:04,410
+عليهم، ولا صراط ولا طريق النصارى الضالين، اهدنا 
+
+181
+00:18:04,410 --> 00:18:08,710
+الصراط المستقيم، من التزم الصراط المستقيم، من التزم
+
+182
+00:18:08,710 --> 00:18:14,810
+الإسلام وتعليمه وهده في الدنيا، أمكنه ذلك، أعانه ذلك
+
+183
+00:18:14,810 --> 00:18:21,960
+على اجتياز الصراط يوم القيامة، ثبت الصراط في الكتاب
+
+184
+00:18:21,960 --> 00:18:28,730
+والسنة، فالادلة كثيرة، منها قوله تعالى: وَلَوْ نَشَاءُ
+
+185
+00:18:28,730 --> 00:18:31,690
+لَطَمَسْنَ عَلَى أَعْيُنِهِمْ فَاسْتَبَقُوا 
+
+186
+00:18:31,690 --> 00:18:34,830
+الصِّرَاطَ فَأَنَّا يُبْصِرُونَ، منها قول الله
+
+187
+00:18:34,830 --> 00:18:40,010
+تبارك وتعالى، وإن منكم إلا واردها، كان على ربك حتمًا
+
+188
+00:18:40,010 --> 00:18:46,210
+مقضية، ثم ننجي الذين اتقوا، ونظر الظالمين فيها جثية
+
+189
+00:18:46,210 --> 00:18:51,890
+ومن الأحاديث النبوية ما رواه الإمام مسلم عليه
+
+190
+00:18:51,890 --> 00:18:56,030
+الرحمة الله عن أبي سعيد الخدري، قال صلى الله عليه
+
+191
+00:18:56,030 --> 00:19:02,870
+وسلم: ثم يضرب الجسر على جهنم، ثم يضرب الجسر وهو
+
+192
+00:19:02,870 --> 00:19:09,090
+الصراط، يضرب الجسر على جهنم، وتحل الشفاعة، بمعنى تقع
+
+193
+00:19:09,090 --> 00:19:16,170
+ويؤذن بها، ويقولون يومها الجميع، الجميع، الجميع، الناس
+
+194
+00:19:16,170 --> 00:19:21,520
+الأولون والآخرون، كل الناس يقولون، كل واحد منهم يقول
+
+195
+00:19:21,520 --> 00:19:27,580
+اللهم سلم سلم، فقال الصحابة الكرام للرسول متسائلين
+
+196
+00:19:27,580 --> 00:19:34,340
+يا رسول الله، وما الجسر؟ ما الجسر؟ أنت تقول يوضع
+
+197
+00:19:34,340 --> 00:19:40,660
+الجسر، ما الجسر؟ فقال: ضحض مظلة، ضحض مظلة، الجسر هو
+
+198
+00:19:40,660 --> 00:19:44,400
+المكان الذي لا تثبت فيه الأقدام، نسأل الله السلامة
+
+199
+00:19:44,400 --> 00:19:53,640
+ضحض مظلة، فيه خطاطيف وكلاليب، والخطاطف أو الكلاب هو
+
+200
+00:19:53,640 --> 00:20:00,660
+الكلاب الذي يعلق به مثل الجزار،
+
+201
+00:20:00,660 --> 00:20:07,140
+فخ اللحم، فيه خطاطيف وكلاليب، يعني على جوانب جهنم
+
+202
+00:20:07,140 --> 00:20:13,950
+وحسك تكون بنجد فيها شويكة، هذا الحسك، هذا النوع من
+
+203
+00:20:13,950 --> 00:20:20,130
+الشجر له شوك كأنه الكلاب، كأنه الخطاف، يقال له
+
+204
+00:20:20,130 --> 00:20:28,890
+السعدان، قال النبي: فيمر المؤمنون كطرف العين، وكالبرق
+
+205
+00:20:28,890 --> 00:20:39,710
+كل بحسب إيمانه، حسب التزامه، حسب عقيدته، حسب تمسكه
+
+206
+00:20:39,710 --> 00:20:43,150
+بأحكام القرآن الكريم والسنة النبوية في حياته
+
+207
+00:20:43,150 --> 00:20:47,270
+الدنيا، كل بحسب عمله، فمنهم من يمروا كطرف العين
+
+208
+00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:51,780
+ومنهم من يمروا كالبرق، ومنهم من يمروا كالريح
+
+209
+00:20:51,780 --> 00:20:56,220
+المرسلة، ومنهم من يمروا كالركاب، الركاب الإنسان
+
+210
+00:20:56,220 --> 00:21:02,700
+الراكم، إكرا ما كنا الله مثلا حمارا أو بغلة أو
+
+211
+00:21:02,700 --> 00:21:07,620
+بوسكاليت مثلا، هو أسرع من من يمشي ماشيا، ومنهم من
+
+212
+00:21:07,620 --> 00:21:14,240
+يمشي ماشيا، ومنهم من يحبوا حبوا، ومنهم من تمسك يد
+
+213
+00:21:14,240 --> 00:21:19,240
+وتفلت يد فتلفحه
+
+214
+00:21:19,240 --> 00:21:25,820
+النار من كل جانب، والنتيجة الناس... الناس ثلاثة
+
+215
+00:21:25,820 --> 00:21:34,300
+أصناف، ثلاثة أصناف، فناجي مسلم، ناج
+
+216
+00:21:34,300 --> 00:21:40,820
+مسلم، صنف الأول يمرون كالبرق لا يجدون حسيسها ولا
+
+217
+00:21:40,820 --> 00:21:49,000
+حرها، وهو قوله تعالى: ثم ننجي الذين اتقوا، ثم ننجي
+
+218
+00:21:49,000 --> 00:22:00,940
+الذين اتقوا، فناجي مسلم، ومخدوش مرسل، مخدوش مرسل، نعم
+
+219
+00:22:00,940 --> 00:22:08,020
+هو تجاوز الصراط لكن لقيا من العنط والعذاب وهو في
+
+220
+00:22:08,020 --> 00:22:14,660
+الطريق، لكنه أرسل بعد ذلك بمعنى إيه؟ تجاوز الصراط
+
+221
+00:22:14,660 --> 00:22:21,920
+ومكدوس في نار جهنم، مكدوس بمعنى إيه؟ مدفوع في نار
+
+222
+00:22:21,920 --> 00:22:27,260
+جهنم، تأتي الملائكة إلى الكفار والملاحدة والبعيدين
+
+223
+00:22:27,260 --> 00:22:33,330
+عن دين الله تبارك وتعالى، فتدفعهم فيقعون في جهنم، وهو
+
+224
+00:22:33,330 --> 00:22:39,670
+قوله تعالى: فأمه هاوية، وما أدراك ما هي نار حامية
+
+225
+00:22:39,670 --> 00:22:46,850
+فأمه، فالنار تحتضنهم كالأم كما تحتضن ابنها عندما
+
+226
+00:22:46,850 --> 00:22:52,950
+يأتيها من بعيد، ما المراد؟ ما المقصود في قوله تعالى
+
+227
+00:22:52,950 --> 00:23:00,440
+وإن منكم إلا واردها، ما المقصود بالورود في قوله
+
+228
+00:23:00,440 --> 00:23:04,640
+تعالى وإن منكم إلا واردها؟ اختلف العلماء، بل علماء
+
+229
+00:23:04,640 --> 00:23:11,520
+الصحابة في معنى هذا اللفظ على قولين، القول الأول
+
+230
+00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:19,880
+لإبن عباس رضوان الله عليهم، قال: أن المراد بالورود
+
+231
+00:23:19,880 --> 00:23:25,460
+المذكور هو دخوله جهنم، وإن منكم إلا واردها يعني وإن
+
+232
+00:23:25,460 --> 00:23:31,240
+منكم إلا داخلها، وابن عباس كان يستدل لهذا القول
+
+233
+00:23:31,240 --> 00:23:39,020
+بقوله تعالى: يقدم قومه يوم القيامة فأوردهم النار
+
+234
+00:23:39,020 --> 00:23:45,420
+بمعنى فادخلهم النار، ويستدل بقوله تعالى: لو كان
+
+235
+00:23:45,420 --> 00:23:54,130
+هؤلاء آلهة ما وردوها يعني ما دخلوها عن الأصنام
+
+236
+00:23:54,130 --> 00:23:57,850
+والأوثان وكل ما يُعبد من دون الله، لو كان هؤلاء
+
+237
+00:23:57,850 --> 00:24:03,730
+آلهة ما وردوها، بمعنى ما دخلوها، فإذا الورود عند
+
+238
+00:24:03,730 --> 00:24:08,670
+ابن عباس هو إيه؟ الدخول، الدخول، أما عند جابر ابن
+
+239
+00:24:08,670 --> 00:24:14,010
+عبدالله يرى أن الورود هو المرور على الصراط، المرور
+
+240
+00:24:14,010 --> 00:24:19,790
+على الصراط، وقد سئل جابر ابن عبدالله عن هذه الآية
+
+241
+00:24:19,790 --> 00:24:24,230
+كما سئل ابن عباس، فقال رضوان الله عليه، استدلى
+
+242
+00:24:24,230 --> 00:24:30,770
+بحديث النبي، ويعطي كل إنسان منهم منافق أو مؤمن نورا
+
+243
+00:24:30,770 --> 00:24:38,350
+يعطي كل إنسان منهم منافق أو مؤمن نورا ثم يتبعونه
+
+244
+00:24:38,350 --> 00:24:43,870
+وعلى جسر جهنم كلاليب
+
+245
+00:24:43,870 --> 00:24:49,370
+وحسك تأخذ من شاء الله، ثم يطفأ نور المنافقين ثم
+
+246
+00:24:49,370 --> 00:24:56,760
+ينجوا المؤمنون، وهنا الشاهد، هنا استدلال جابر ابن عبد
+
+247
+00:24:56,760 --> 00:25:04,680
+الله أن الورود بمعنى المرور وليس الدخول كما يذكر
+
+248
+00:25:04,680 --> 00:25:09,800
+ابن عباس بدليل أن النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم يقول: اه
+
+249
+00:25:09,800 --> 00:25:13,860
+الجميع يمر، لكن
+
+250
+00:25:13,860 --> 00:25:20,860
+بعض من يمر يسقط في جهنم وبعضهم ينجيه الله تبارك 
+
+251
+00:25:20,860 --> 00:25:27,080
+وتعالى ثم ينجوا المؤمنون فهنا يكون معنى الورود وإن
+
+252
+00:25:27,080 --> 00:25:33,040
+منكم إلا واردها بمعنى وإن منكم إلا سينجوا على
+
+253
+00:25:33,040 --> 00:25:38,440
+الصراط ثم ينجوا المؤمنون فتنجوا أولى زمرة قال شارح
+
+254
+00:25:38,440 --> 00:25:44,940
+الطهاوية اختلف المفسرون في المراد بالورود المذكور
+
+255
+00:25:44,940 --> 00:25:51,260
+في قوله تعالى وإن منكم إلا واردها والأظهر والأقوى
+
+256
+00:25:51,260 --> 00:25:56,640
+أنه المرور على الصراط يعني
+
+257
+00:25:56,640 --> 00:26:05,820
+هو يرجح قول من؟ قول جابر بن عبد الله والأظهر
+
+258
+00:26:05,820 --> 00:26:10,580
+والأقوى أنه المرور على الصراط، ليس الدخول، ابن
+
+259
+00:26:10,580 --> 00:26:15,570
+عباس يقول أنه الدخول جابر بن عبد الله هو الذي يقول
+
+260
+00:26:15,570 --> 00:26:23,130
+أن الورود هو المرور على الصراط، والدليل على ذلك
+
+261
+00:26:23,130 --> 00:26:26,410
+قول الله تبارك وتعالى، لاحظي الآية كمليها، وإن
+
+262
+00:26:26,410 --> 00:26:31,990
+منكم إلا واردها كان على ربك حتما مقضية ثم ننجي
+
+263
+00:26:31,990 --> 00:26:37,810
+الذين اتقوا اسمعي ماذا حصل مع حفصة رضوان الله عنها
+
+264
+00:26:37,810 --> 00:26:42,550
+وعن أبيها فهي بنت عمر حفصة بنت عمر زوج النبي صلى
+
+265
+00:26:42,550 --> 00:26:48,050
+الله عليه وسلم سمعت النبي وهو يقول والذي نفسي بيده
+
+266
+00:26:48,050 --> 00:26:53,390
+لا يلج النار أحد بايع تحت الشجرة فقالت حفصة يا
+
+267
+00:26:53,390 --> 00:26:58,800
+رسول الله أليس الله يقول لحظة، ماذا يقول النبي؟
+
+268
+00:26:58,800 --> 00:27:02,600
+والذي نفسه بيده لا يلجي النار، لا يلج النار أحد
+
+269
+00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:08,840
+بايع تحت الشجرة فقالت له حفصة، يا رسول الله، أليس
+
+270
+00:27:08,840 --> 00:27:15,160
+الله يقول وإن منكم إلا واردها؟ فقال النبي لها مصححا
+
+271
+00:27:15,160 --> 00:27:23,260
+منبها يا حفصة ألم تسمعيه قال بعدها ثم ننجي الذين
+
+272
+00:27:23,260 --> 00:27:28,020
+اتقوا نعم وإن منكم إلا واردها بمعنى سيمروا عليها
+
+273
+00:27:28,020 --> 00:27:35,600
+سيمروا عليها لكن المرور لا يستلزم الدخول إنما
+
+274
+00:27:35,600 --> 00:27:44,230
+المرور إنما المرور هو الاجتياز المرور بدليل أن هناك
+
+275
+00:27:44,230 --> 00:27:48,470
+من ينجيه الله تبارك وتعالى أكمل الآية ثم ننجي
+
+276
+00:27:48,470 --> 00:27:55,910
+الذين اتقوا ونظروا الظالمين فيها جثية لذلك نلخص
+
+277
+00:27:55,910 --> 00:28:02,670
+هذا الأمر فنقول أن الورود على النار ورودان الورود
+
+278
+00:28:02,670 --> 00:28:09,330
+الأول ورود الكفار أهل النار فهذا ورود دخول دون شك
+
+279
+00:28:09,330 --> 00:28:16,190
+في ذلك كما يقول ابن عباس ورود دخول كما قال سبحانه
+
+280
+00:28:16,190 --> 00:28:24,770
+وتعالى في شأن فرعون وقومه يقدم قومه يوم القيامة
+
+281
+00:28:24,770 --> 00:28:31,290
+فأوردهم النار وبئس الورد المورود يعني بئس المدخل
+
+282
+00:28:31,290 --> 00:28:34,630
+المدخول بئس المكان الذي يدخل
+
+283
+00:28:37,420 --> 00:28:45,540
+هذا ورود دخول نقول هذا الكلام لورود لأن كلمة ورود
+
+284
+00:28:45,540 --> 00:28:52,640
+تأتي بأكثر من معنى بحسب السياق هنا الورود بمعنى
+
+285
+00:28:52,640 --> 00:28:57,700
+الدخول فهذا دخول للكافرين بالتأكيد أنهم يدخلونها
+
+286
+00:28:57,700 --> 00:29:05,110
+بل يخلدون فيها الورود الثاني ورود الموحدين وإن منكم
+
+287
+00:29:05,110 --> 00:29:13,030
+النص هنا مطلق عام وإن منكم إلا واردها كان على ربك
+
+288
+00:29:13,030 --> 00:29:20,230
+حتما مقضية أكمل الآية ثم ننجي الذين اتقوا فيفهم من
+
+289
+00:29:20,230 --> 00:29:26,150
+ذلك أن الورود هنا ورود المؤمنين تحديدا هو ورود
+
+290
+00:29:26,150 --> 00:29:33,690
+مرور ورود فقط مرور أي مرورهم على الصراط ثم ننجي
+
+291
+00:29:33,690 --> 00:29:40,410
+الذين اتقوا ونظروا الظالمين فيها جثيا القنطرة
+
+292
+00:29:40,410 --> 00:29:47,650
+هذه تسمى الصراط الثاني ثبت في الصحيحين أن المؤمنين
+
+293
+00:29:47,650 --> 00:29:52,350
+إذا عبروا الصراط وقفوا على قنطرة بين الجنة والنار
+
+294
+00:29:52,350 --> 00:30:00,420
+فيختصوا لبعضهم من بعض فإذا هذبوا ونقوا أذن لهم في
+
+295
+00:30:00,420 --> 00:30:09,540
+دخول الجنة هم تجاوزوا الصراط تجاوزوا الصراط لكن لا
+
+296
+00:30:09,540 --> 00:30:17,060
+يدخلون الجنة هناك أحزان بينهم هؤلاء المؤمنين هناك
+
+297
+00:30:17,060 --> 00:30:24,820
+مظالم بين هؤلاء المؤمنين كانت في الدنيا فلا يؤذن
+
+298
+00:30:24,820 --> 00:30:30,550
+لهم بدخول الجنة فأهل الجنة أصفياء أنقياء كما قال
+
+299
+00:30:30,550 --> 00:30:35,550
+ربنا تبارك وتعالى فيهم ونزعنا ما في صدورهم من غل
+
+300
+00:30:35,550 --> 00:30:42,510
+إخوانا على سرور متقابلين فلا يصلحوا هؤلاء بهذه
+
+301
+00:30:42,510 --> 00:30:49,630
+الصفة لدخول الجنة لابد وأن يصلح الله تبارك وتعالى
+
+302
+00:30:49,630 --> 00:30:56,710
+بينهم هؤلاء لا يدخلون الجنة يهذب تهذب نفوسهم
+
+303
+00:30:56,710 --> 00:31:04,550
+ويصلح ما بينهم من أحزان ومن مظالم وهذا ما ذكره
+
+304
+00:31:04,550 --> 00:31:07,210
+النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم في الحديث الذي يرويه
+
+305
+00:31:07,210 --> 00:31:12,750
+البخاري قال يخلص المؤمنون من النار يعني هم
+
+306
+00:31:12,750 --> 00:31:18,950
+بيجتازوا الصراط فيحبسون على قنطرة بين الجنة والنار
+
+307
+00:31:18,950 --> 00:31:26,500
+في مكان يسمى القنطرة فيقتصوا لبعضهم من بعض مظالم
+
+308
+00:31:26,500 --> 00:31:32,940
+كانت بينهم في الدنيا كان الواحد منهم قد حلف يمينا
+
+309
+00:31:32,940 --> 00:31:42,260
+أن يطلب حقه من الله تبارك وتعالى فلان
+
+310
+00:31:42,260 --> 00:31:48,170
+ظلمه في الدنيا له عنده مظلمة بعد الحساب والميزان
+
+311
+00:31:48,170 --> 00:31:54,010
+والصراط كان هؤلاء الاثنان الشخصيين من أيه؟ من
+
+312
+00:31:54,010 --> 00:31:59,090
+المؤمنين ممن يجتازوا الصراط ممن رجحت حسناتهم على
+
+313
+00:31:59,090 --> 00:32:07,030
+سيئاتهم لكن بينهم أحقاد وأحزان لازالت فهؤلاء
+
+314
+00:32:07,030 --> 00:32:10,850
+لا يدخلون الجنة يحبسون في منطقة تسمى القنطرة
+
+315
+00:32:10,850 --> 00:32:18,500
+فيقصوا لبعضهم من بعض مظالم كانت بينهم في الدنيا
+
+316
+00:32:18,500 --> 00:32:24,520
+كانت بينهم في الدنيا ورد في بعض الحديث أن الله
+
+317
+00:32:24,520 --> 00:32:29,040
+تبارك وتعالى يصلح بين عباده يعني المظلوم يأتي
+
+318
+00:32:29,040 --> 00:32:34,180
+المظلوم فيقول يا رب خذ لي حقي من هذا فهذا ظلمني
+
+319
+00:32:34,180 --> 00:32:41,100
+فيريه الله تبارك وتعالى قصرا من قصور الجنة فيقول
+
+320
+00:32:41,100 --> 00:32:48,310
+لأي نبي هذا أي شهيد هذا فيقول هو لك مقابل أن تسامح
+
+321
+00:32:48,310 --> 00:32:54,970
+أخيك وهكذا يصلح الله تبارك وتعالى بين عباده حتى
+
+322
+00:32:54,970 --> 00:33:02,310
+إذا هذبوا ونقوا أذن لهم في دخول الجنة بعد ذلك يؤذن
+
+323
+00:33:02,310 --> 00:33:06,930
+لهم بدخول الجنة يقسم النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم
+
+324
+00:33:06,930 --> 00:33:14,240
+فوالذي نفسه محمد بيده الآن سيدخلون الجنة رمحا،
+
+325
+00:33:14,240 --> 00:33:22,920
+جريا، شوقا، فوالذي نفسه محمد بيده لقى أحدهم أهدأ
+
+326
+00:33:22,920 --> 00:33:28,620
+بمنزله في الجنة، منه بمنزله كان في الدنيا يعني هو
+
+327
+00:33:28,620 --> 00:33:34,720
+يذهب إلى قصره، إلى مكانه، يعرفه أكثر من معرفته
+
+328
+00:33:34,720 --> 00:33:41,660
+ببيته، بمنزله، في الدنيا كما في سورة محمد صلى الله
+
+329
+00:33:41,660 --> 00:33:46,940
+على محمد في قوله تعالى ويدخلهم الجنة عرفها لهم
+
+330
+00:33:46,940 --> 00:33:55,100
+فهذه القانطرة عدها القرطبي عليه رحمة الله سراطا
+
+331
+00:33:55,100 --> 00:34:01,960
+ثانيا، لكن هذا سراط، هذا جسر للمؤمنين خاصة، وليس
+
+332
+00:34:01,960 --> 00:34:07,260
+يسقط من... منهم أحد في النار، ليس فيها سقوط في
+
+333
+00:34:07,260 --> 00:34:13,120
+النار لأن هذا فقط مكان يحبس فيه المؤمنون حتى يهذبوا
+
+334
+00:34:13,120 --> 00:34:19,780
+ويصلحوا الله تبارك وتعالى بين عباده المؤمنين نسأل
+
+335
+00:34:19,780 --> 00:34:23,800
+الله تبارك وتعالى أن نكون من أهل الجنان وأن يعفو
+
+336
+00:34:23,800 --> 00:34:28,100
+عنه سبحانه وتعالى بمنه وكرمه أقول قول هذا وأستغفر
+
+337
+00:34:28,100 --> 00:34:31,780
+الله لي ولكم والسلام عليكم ورحمة الله وبركاته
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/CO7QxCcHC4U_raw.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/CO7QxCcHC4U_raw.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..6ac17d47dc005499a08438da83a90346cabc9a6f
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/CO7QxCcHC4U_raw.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1932 @@
+1
+00:00:21,180 --> 00:00:24,660
+أعوذ بالله السميع العلي من الشيطان الرجيم بسم الله
+
+2
+00:00:24,660 --> 00:00:29,500
+الرحمن الرحيم الحمد لله رب العالمين وأصلي وأسلم
+
+3
+00:00:29,500 --> 00:00:33,140
+على رسول الله الأمين محمد بن عبد الله الصادق
+
+4
+00:00:33,140 --> 00:00:37,700
+الأمين صلى الله عليه وعلى آله وصحبه وسلم أجمعين
+
+5
+00:00:37,700 --> 00:00:45,080
+وبعد نبدأ إن شاء الله هذا اللقاء الثالث في بيان
+
+6
+00:00:45,080 --> 00:00:54,030
+أركان العقيدة الإسلاميةوحديثنا تكملة لما سبق من
+
+7
+00:00:54,030 --> 00:00:59,130
+الكلام عن الإيمان بالأنبياء والمرسلين اليوم نتكلم
+
+8
+00:00:59,130 --> 00:01:08,270
+عن دلائل النبوة دلائل جمع دليل فكلمة دليل تجمع على
+
+9
+00:01:08,270 --> 00:01:13,430
+أدلة وعلى دلائل دلائل النبوة المقصود بها الأدلة
+
+10
+00:01:14,370 --> 00:01:18,490
+التي تعرف بها نبوة النبي الصادق ويعرف بها كذب
+
+11
+00:01:18,490 --> 00:01:24,570
+المدعي للنبوة من المتنبيين الكذبة بتأكيد ليس كل من
+
+12
+00:01:24,570 --> 00:01:30,310
+اتدعى النبوة يصدق فالتاريخ كشف لنا عن كثير من
+
+13
+00:01:30,310 --> 00:01:36,550
+الناس اتدعى النبوة وهم كاذبون في دعواهم لذلك في
+
+14
+00:01:36,550 --> 00:01:42,090
+هذا اللقاء و اللقاءات القادمة سنكشف عن السبل
+
+15
+00:01:42,090 --> 00:01:47,500
+والادلة والبراهينالتي تمكننا من معرفة النبي الصادق
+
+16
+00:01:47,500 --> 00:01:53,500
+من النبي الكاذب من النبي الصادق من من من يدعي
+
+17
+00:01:53,500 --> 00:02:01,520
+النبوة كاذبا من هذه الأدلة والتي مبينة على الصبورة
+
+18
+00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:09,040
+هنا الاستدلال بدعوة الرسل وجوهر الرسالة ثم تأييد
+
+19
+00:02:09,040 --> 00:02:14,930
+الله لرسله ونصرته لهمثم الدليل الثالث النظر في حال
+
+20
+00:02:14,930 --> 00:02:21,830
+الأنبياء رابعا إخبار الرسل السابقين له بصفاته
+
+21
+00:02:21,830 --> 00:02:27,430
+وانطباقه وانطباقها عليه تماما خامسا الاستدلال
+
+22
+00:02:27,430 --> 00:02:34,970
+بالمعجزة فهو أيضا دليل من أدلة إثبات النبوة ثم
+
+23
+00:02:34,970 --> 00:02:42,270
+سادسا مناسبة كل معجزة للعصر الذي وقعت فيههذه أدلة
+
+24
+00:02:42,270 --> 00:02:52,230
+أدلة خمسة من أدلة كثيرة ذكرها العلماء فالعلماء
+
+25
+00:02:52,230 --> 00:02:59,010
+توسعوا في هذا الأمر حتى أن بعضهم أوصل الأدلة إلى
+
+26
+00:02:59,010 --> 00:03:06,950
+أكثر من ألف دليل وأشهر الكتب في هذا الباب كتاب
+
+27
+00:03:06,950 --> 00:03:11,420
+الإمام البيهقي عليه الرحمة الله دلائل النبوةفهو
+
+28
+00:03:11,420 --> 00:03:18,160
+كتاب ضخم ومتخصص في هذا الباب الأدلة كثيرة لكن في
+
+29
+00:03:18,160 --> 00:03:23,340
+هذا المساق جئنا بجوامع هذه الأدلة وأخصها لما
+
+30
+00:03:23,340 --> 00:03:27,080
+يتناسب مع هذا المساق نذكر منها خمسة إن شاء الله
+
+31
+00:03:27,080 --> 00:03:33,740
+تبارك وتعالى وهي تكفي للمطلوب الدليل الأول
+
+32
+00:03:33,740 --> 00:03:40,420
+الاستدلال بدعوة الرسل وجوهر الرسالة حقيقة المتأمل
+
+33
+00:03:41,570 --> 00:03:49,970
+في دعوة الرسل يجد أن الدعوة التي جاءوا بها الرسالة
+
+34
+00:03:49,970 --> 00:03:55,270
+التي جاءوا بها الكتاب الذي أوحاه الله عز وجل إليهم
+
+35
+00:03:55,270 --> 00:04:03,730
+يدل على صدقهم فهذه الكتب ومنها القرآن الكريم لا
+
+36
+00:04:03,730 --> 00:04:12,040
+يتناقض أوله مع آخره نجده متسق متآلفيصدق بعضه بعضا
+
+37
+00:04:12,040 --> 00:04:19,240
+يصدق أوله آخره كما قال تعالى في كتابه سبحانه و
+
+38
+00:04:19,240 --> 00:04:24,000
+تعالى و لو كان من عند غير الله لوجدوا فيه اختلافا
+
+39
+00:04:24,000 --> 00:04:30,040
+كثيرا مفهوم المخالفة ولكن لأنه من عند الله لا يوجد
+
+40
+00:04:30,040 --> 00:04:34,660
+فيه لا اختلاف لا كثير ولا قليل كتاب الله تبارك
+
+41
+00:04:34,660 --> 00:04:41,840
+وتعالى نجد فيه نجد فيه التآلفنجد حتى أن الله تبارك
+
+42
+00:04:41,840 --> 00:04:48,260
+وتعالى في أوله قال ذلك الكتاب لا ريب فيه لا شك فيه
+
+43
+00:04:48,260 --> 00:04:54,940
+لا تناقض فيه من أوله إلى آخره هذا الكتاب نزل على
+
+44
+00:04:54,940 --> 00:04:59,580
+النبي الأمي على محمد صلى الله عليه وسلم الذي لم
+
+45
+00:04:59,580 --> 00:05:06,980
+يسبق له أن استعمل قلما ولا كتب كتابا فيأتي هذا
+
+46
+00:05:06,980 --> 00:05:09,160
+الكتاب بهذه
+
+47
+00:05:11,000 --> 00:05:15,300
+بهذا الإعجاز وهذه العلوم التي يحتويها هذا الكتاب
+
+48
+00:05:15,300 --> 00:05:20,820
+وهذه التشريعات الصالحة لكل زمان ومكان وإلى قيام
+
+49
+00:05:20,820 --> 00:05:27,240
+الساعة وشاملة لكل الأجناس والأعراق والأقوام وليس
+
+50
+00:05:27,240 --> 00:05:34,920
+لصاحب هذا الكتاب ليس لله تبارك وتعالى مصلحة في ذلك
+
+51
+00:05:34,920 --> 00:05:41,190
+إنما هو تشريع للبشر فيه مصلحة العبادوفيه تتحقق
+
+52
+00:05:41,190 --> 00:05:47,750
+العدالة بين الناس هذا يدل على أن هذا الكتاب هو من
+
+53
+00:05:47,750 --> 00:05:52,110
+كلام الله تبارك وتعالى وهذا يدل على صدق هذا النبي
+
+54
+00:05:52,110 --> 00:05:59,550
+هذا يدل على صدق هذا النبي إذا الاستدلال بدعوة
+
+55
+00:05:59,550 --> 00:06:06,710
+الرسل وجوهر الرسالة هذا دليل على صدق النبي في
+
+56
+00:06:06,710 --> 00:06:14,160
+دعواه النبوةللمتأمل في جوهر الرسالة والمقصود هنا
+
+57
+00:06:14,160 --> 00:06:18,060
+بالرسالة القرآن الكريم الكتاب الذي أوحي به للنبي
+
+58
+00:06:18,060 --> 00:06:23,540
+صلى الله عليه وسلم يدل على الكتاب نفسه جوهر
+
+59
+00:06:23,540 --> 00:06:28,420
+الرسالة محتوى هذا الكتاب يدل على صدق النبي نجده
+
+60
+00:06:28,420 --> 00:06:36,660
+يصل إلى المطلوب وهو هدايت البشر إن هذا القرآن يهدي
+
+61
+00:06:36,660 --> 00:06:43,380
+للتي هي أقوامأقوى من كل المناهج والمثالك والطرق
+
+62
+00:06:43,380 --> 00:06:50,640
+والأفكار والفلسفات هذا الكتاب الذي هو من وضع الله
+
+63
+00:06:50,640 --> 00:06:55,220
+تبارك وتعالى هو كلام الله تبارك وتعالى هو معجزة
+
+64
+00:06:55,220 --> 00:07:00,720
+تدل على صدق النبي جاءت تأييدا للنبي صلى الله عليه
+
+65
+00:07:00,720 --> 00:07:07,140
+وسلم في دعواه النبوة من رحمة الله تبارك وتعالى
+
+66
+00:07:08,560 --> 00:07:12,680
+بالرغم من أنه خلق لنا عقولا يمكن لنا أن نميز بهذا
+
+67
+00:07:12,680 --> 00:07:17,760
+العقل بين الحسن والقبيع بين الخير والشر يمكن لنا
+
+68
+00:07:17,760 --> 00:07:22,620
+أن ندرك ذلك لكن الله تبارك وتعالى بمنته وفضله
+
+69
+00:07:22,620 --> 00:07:30,060
+ورحمته أكمل سبحانه وتعالى نعمته علينا فلا يعذب
+
+70
+00:07:30,060 --> 00:07:34,380
+الله تبارك وتعالى أحد إلا بعد إرسال الرسول وما كنا
+
+71
+00:07:34,380 --> 00:07:42,030
+معذبين حتى نبعث رسولةهذا كله يؤكد صدق النبي صلى
+
+72
+00:07:42,030 --> 00:07:46,510
+الله عليه وسلم في دعوة ومن الجميل أن نستمع إلى
+
+73
+00:07:46,510 --> 00:07:52,790
+إجابة هذا الأعرابي سئلة بما عرفت أن محمدا رسول
+
+74
+00:07:52,790 --> 00:07:57,690
+الله بما عرفت أن محمدا رسول الله إجابة في غاية
+
+75
+00:07:57,690 --> 00:08:04,350
+الدقة والجمال والحسن قالهذا الأعراب بفطرته السليمة
+
+76
+00:08:04,350 --> 00:08:10,850
+السوية التي لم تتلوث بالقضورات الفكرية ولا بالشكوك
+
+77
+00:08:10,850 --> 00:08:19,190
+ولا بالشبهات قال ما أمر بشيءفقال العقل ليته نهى
+
+78
+00:08:19,190 --> 00:08:24,890
+عنه ولا نهى عن شيء فقال العقل ليته أمر به كلام في
+
+79
+00:08:24,890 --> 00:08:30,850
+غاية الحسن قال عرفت صدق محمد صلى الله عليه وسلم
+
+80
+00:08:30,850 --> 00:08:38,110
+نظرت في ما جاء بهنظرت في القرآن الكريم تأملت جوهر
+
+81
+00:08:38,110 --> 00:08:44,330
+الرسالة الكتاب السماوي الذي يزعم أنه يعني جاء به
+
+82
+00:08:44,330 --> 00:08:48,510
+من عند الله تبارك وتعالى تأملت فيه فوجدته ما أمر
+
+83
+00:08:48,510 --> 00:08:55,590
+بشيء فقال العقل ليته نهى عنه يعني مثلا القرآن
+
+84
+00:08:55,590 --> 00:09:02,790
+الكريم أمر بالصلاةبالصياب، بالذكاء، بالحج، بصداة
+
+85
+00:09:02,790 --> 00:09:07,590
+الأرحان، بالأمر بالمعروف، بالنهي عن المنكر، أمر
+
+86
+00:09:07,590 --> 00:09:12,010
+بإماطة الأذى على الطريق، أمر بالإحسان للجار، أمر
+
+87
+00:09:12,010 --> 00:09:17,310
+ببر الوالدين، إلى غير ذلك من وجوه الأوامر الخير
+
+88
+00:09:17,310 --> 00:09:23,210
+التي يأمر بها هذا الدينلا أجد أمرا أمر بيه القرآن
+
+89
+00:09:23,210 --> 00:09:29,570
+الكريم العقل الصريح السليم السوي يقول ليته نهى عنه
+
+90
+00:09:29,570 --> 00:09:34,750
+بل العقل يستحسن أوامر القرآن الكريم وفي المقابل
+
+91
+00:09:34,750 --> 00:09:43,430
+ولا نهى عن شيء قال العقل ليته أمر به لا نجد في
+
+92
+00:09:43,430 --> 00:09:49,400
+القرآن الكريم أمرا نهى القرآن الكريم عنهوالعقل
+
+93
+00:09:49,400 --> 00:09:54,820
+يقول ليته نهى .. ليته أمر به يعني مثلا نهى عن
+
+94
+00:09:54,820 --> 00:10:01,140
+الزنا، عن شرب الخمر، عن حقوق الوالدين، عن القتل،
+
+95
+00:10:01,140 --> 00:10:09,960
+عن الكذب، عن السرقة، أليس كذلك؟ نهى عن الفواحش،
+
+96
+00:10:09,960 --> 00:10:16,060
+ما ظهر منها وما بطن، فهذه كلها .. كلها يستقبحها
+
+97
+00:10:16,060 --> 00:10:21,700
+العقلولا نجده ولو مرة واحدة يقول ليته أمر به، ليته
+
+98
+00:10:21,700 --> 00:10:25,980
+أمر بالزنا، ليته .. لا .. لا نجد ذلك، ليته أمر
+
+99
+00:10:25,980 --> 00:10:30,660
+بالكذب، لا نجد ذلك أبدا، بالعكس العقل أيه يستحسن
+
+100
+00:10:30,660 --> 00:10:36,160
+أيضا أوامر القرآن الكريم، هذه إجابته عربي عربي،
+
+101
+00:10:36,160 --> 00:10:43,640
+نقي الفطرة، سليم الرؤية، لم تتلوث فطرته بالقذورات
+
+102
+00:10:43,640 --> 00:10:50,650
+الفكرية ولا بالشكوك ولا بالشبهاتفإذا الناظر في
+
+103
+00:10:50,650 --> 00:10:55,230
+دعوة نبينا محمد صلى الله عليه وسلم يتبين صدقه،
+
+104
+00:10:55,230 --> 00:11:00,570
+يتبين أنه صادق في دعواه، الذي ينظر في جوهر
+
+105
+00:11:00,570 --> 00:11:05,270
+الرسالة، وهذا حقيقة، يعني لا نغرد بعيدا إذا قلنا
+
+106
+00:11:05,270 --> 00:11:10,800
+أن هذا من منة الله تعالى علينا في هذا الدينفاليهود
+
+107
+00:11:10,800 --> 00:11:17,640
+يحسدوننا، يحسدوننا على هذا الدين لقيا يهود عمرو بن
+
+108
+00:11:17,640 --> 00:11:23,980
+الخطاب رضوان الله عليه فقالوا له يا ابن الخطاب إن
+
+109
+00:11:23,980 --> 00:11:31,360
+في كتابكم آية لو نزلت علينا لاتخذنا من يوم نزولها
+
+110
+00:11:31,360 --> 00:11:40,270
+عيدافقال لهم وما هي قالت قول الله اليوم أكملت لكم
+
+111
+00:11:40,270 --> 00:11:47,710
+دينكم وأتممت عليكم نعمتي وأتممت عليكم نعمتي ورضيت
+
+112
+00:11:47,710 --> 00:11:53,930
+لكم الإسلام دينا يوم تمام الدين فهذا الدين تام هذا
+
+113
+00:11:53,930 --> 00:12:00,750
+من أيضا بالنظر في جوهر هذه الرسالة التأمل في محتوى
+
+114
+00:12:00,750 --> 00:12:06,790
+هذا القرآن الكريم نجده تامنجده كامل، لا يوجد فيه
+
+115
+00:12:06,790 --> 00:12:13,350
+نقص، ما فرطنا في الكتاب من شيء هو لا يُعنى بالفرد
+
+116
+00:12:13,350 --> 00:12:22,150
+ويُهمل المجتمع أو يُعنى بالمجتمع ويُهمل الفرد إنما
+
+117
+00:12:22,150 --> 00:12:26,730
+هناك تكامل في النظرة والاهتمام، يهتم بالفرد كما
+
+118
+00:12:26,730 --> 00:12:30,470
+يهتم بالمجتمع، يهتم بالمجتمع ولا يُهمل الفرد
+
+119
+00:12:33,750 --> 00:12:39,590
+لا يمكن أن يأتي هذا إلا من خالق حكيم سبحانه وتعالى
+
+120
+00:12:39,590 --> 00:12:48,990
+ثم نجده تكلم فيه تكلم عن الدنيا وتكلم عن الآخرة
+
+121
+00:12:48,990 --> 00:12:54,950
+وتكلم عن الحياة البرزخية نجده تكلم لم يأتي هذا
+
+122
+00:12:54,950 --> 00:13:01,720
+القرآن الكريم لجنس أو أرقأو قوم أو بُقى مُخصصة من
+
+123
+00:13:01,720 --> 00:13:06,140
+بقاع الأرض، إنما نزل للعالمين جميعًا، وما أرسلناك
+
+124
+00:13:06,140 --> 00:13:11,020
+إلا رحمة للعالمين، وما أرسلناك إلا كافة للناس
+
+125
+00:13:11,020 --> 00:13:16,740
+بشيرة ونذيرةجوهر هذه الرسالة لا يُعنى بقوم معينين
+
+126
+00:13:16,740 --> 00:13:22,520
+هذا يعني أن هذا الكتاب جاء مؤيدا لنبينا صلى الله
+
+127
+00:13:22,520 --> 00:13:27,840
+عليه وسلم وهذا يؤكد صدق
+
+128
+00:13:27,840 --> 00:13:32,740
+النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم وأنه مرسل من الله تبارك
+
+129
+00:13:32,740 --> 00:13:40,260
+وتعالى لو تأملنا لو تأملنا بشيء من التأملفي جوهر
+
+130
+00:13:40,260 --> 00:13:44,100
+هذه الرسالة، لو تأملنا نصوص القرآن الكريم، نجد
+
+131
+00:13:44,100 --> 00:13:49,600
+شواهد على ما ذكرنا، منها مثلا أن الله عز وجل نادى
+
+132
+00:13:49,600 --> 00:13:58,690
+على الناس أن يؤمنوا بالرسول وأن يتحققوا من صدقهان
+
+133
+00:13:58,690 --> 00:14:04,930
+يتحققوا من صدقه يعني اعملوا عقولكم فكروا انظروا
+
+134
+00:14:04,930 --> 00:14:11,670
+تأملوا جوهر هذه الرسالة التي ارسلنا نبينا بها وهو
+
+135
+00:14:11,670 --> 00:14:15,830
+القرآن الكريم انظروا اليه قال تعالى يا أيها الناس
+
+136
+00:14:15,830 --> 00:14:22,310
+قد جاءكم الرسول بالحق من ربكم بالحق من ربكم الله
+
+137
+00:14:22,310 --> 00:14:27,950
+عز و جل يقول عن هذا الكتاب انه كتاب حقيا أيها
+
+138
+00:14:27,950 --> 00:14:33,110
+الناس قد جاءكم الرسول بالحق من ربكم لكم أن تفحصوه
+
+139
+00:14:33,110 --> 00:14:41,330
+أن تتأملوه أن تفحصوا محتواه وتختبروا
+
+140
+00:14:41,330 --> 00:14:49,330
+حقيقته أهو حق أم هو باطل هو كتاب حق قد جاءكم
+
+141
+00:14:49,330 --> 00:14:54,630
+الرسول بالحق من ربكم فآمنوا خيرا لكم فآمنوا خيرا
+
+142
+00:14:54,630 --> 00:15:00,980
+لكمهذا وجه من وجوه التأمل في القرآن الكريم نجد أن
+
+143
+00:15:00,980 --> 00:15:04,860
+الله عز وجل أمر بالتأمل في جوهر هذه الرسالة ثم
+
+144
+00:15:04,860 --> 00:15:10,500
+القرآن الكريم نعى بشدة على الذين لا يتدبرون هذا
+
+145
+00:15:10,500 --> 00:15:19,280
+القرآن قال أفلا يتدبرون القرآن هذه دعوة صريحة
+
+146
+00:15:19,280 --> 00:15:24,400
+لتدبر القرآن هذا حث واضح هذا تحريض هذا طلب من الله
+
+147
+00:15:24,400 --> 00:15:31,360
+عز وجلأليس كذلك؟ والقرآن هو أعظم معجزات النبي صلى
+
+148
+00:15:31,360 --> 00:15:38,720
+الله عليه وسلم كما سماها ابو زهرة كما سماه الامام
+
+149
+00:15:38,720 --> 00:15:44,120
+ابو زهرة المعجزة الكبرى له كتاب ضخم مجلد اسمه
+
+150
+00:15:44,120 --> 00:15:48,660
+المعجزة الكبرى فهو المعجزة الخالدة الباقية إلى
+
+151
+00:15:48,660 --> 00:15:55,160
+قيام الساعةفالناس مدعومون إلى تدبر محتوى وجوهر هذا
+
+152
+00:15:55,160 --> 00:16:02,380
+الكتاب أفلا يتدبرون القرآن؟ ولو كان من عند غير
+
+153
+00:16:02,380 --> 00:16:08,860
+الله لوجدوا فيه اختلافا كثيرا كما قلت لك مفهوم
+
+154
+00:16:08,860 --> 00:16:16,680
+المخالفة ولكن لأنه من عند الله لا يوجد فيه اختلاف
+
+155
+00:16:16,680 --> 00:16:26,570
+لا كثير ولا قليللا كثير ولا قليل إذا دعوة للتأمل
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+156
+00:16:26,570 --> 00:16:37,990
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+158
+00:16:42,510 --> 00:16:50,910
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+161
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+166
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+167
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+168
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+169
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+170
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+محمود طه من السودانأقام عليه الرئيس النميري حد
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+الردة كثيرون الذين اتدعوا النبوة او الرسالة ولعل
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+لم يقول عن نفسه أنه نبي إنما قال أن أنا رسول أنا
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+180
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+190
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+195
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+196
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+199
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+200
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+201
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+205
+00:21:44,240 --> 00:21:48,610
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+207
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+208
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+210
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+211
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+212
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+213
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+214
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+215
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+216
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+الله لرسوله ونصرته لهم له تأثير عظيم في نفوس الناس
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+217
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+218
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+219
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+220
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+نجد أن الناس يقبلون على دينه ويلتفون حوله ويؤيدونه
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+221
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+222
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+النبوةمصدق، مؤيد، منصور نجد أنهم يقبلون على دينه
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+225
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+فيدخلون في دينه أفواجة حينها فسبح بحمد ربك
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+226
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+واستغفره إنه كان توابا هذه أدلة، هذا الدليل الثاني
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+227
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+من
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+228
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+229
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+230
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+لا يعيش في كوكب اخر ولم يأتي من كوكب اخر انما هو
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+231
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+يعيش بين قومه كحال الناس ومعروف ان معظم الأنبياء
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+233
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+عليه السلام بُعِث في سن الثلاثين أما جميع الأنبياء
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+234
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+235
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+236
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+يعرفونهم على حقيقتهميعرفونهم تمام المعرفة فالخير
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+238
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+كله هم صفوة الله من خلقه استفاهم الله تبارك وتعالى
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+239
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+240
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+242
+00:25:24,370 --> 00:25:29,670
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+243
+00:25:29,670 --> 00:25:36,750
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+244
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+245
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+246
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+247
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+248
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+249
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+250
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+251
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+252
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+253
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+254
+00:26:32,450 --> 00:26:38,410
+تبارك وتعالى برسالته ولذلك كان أول من آمن به من ..
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+255
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+256
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+258
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+259
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+260
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+261
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+عليه وسلم من غار حراء وقال لها زملوني زملوني
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+262
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+263
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+264
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+265
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+266
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+267
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+268
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+269
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+270
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+العاقلة هذه المرأة الشريفة أمناخديجة رضوان الله
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+271
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+عليه على أدلة على أن هذا النبي صادق في دعوة وأن
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+272
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+273
+00:28:23,930 --> 00:28:27,310
+وتحمل
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+274
+00:28:27,310 --> 00:28:32,470
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+275
+00:28:32,470 --> 00:28:39,610
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+
+276
+00:28:39,610 --> 00:28:45,230
+الصفات، لا يمكن أن يخزيه الله تبارك وتعالى،
+
+277
+00:28:45,230 --> 00:28:54,350
+لاحظتي؟ فإذا هذا دليل، دليل على صدق النبوة، فهكذا،
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+278
+00:28:54,350 --> 00:29:00,430
+كل العقل، حتى لو رأينا غير المسلمين،غير أبو بكر
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+279
+00:29:00,430 --> 00:29:05,650
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+
+280
+00:29:05,650 --> 00:29:10,990
+المشهد مع هراقل ملك الروم لما أرسله النبي صلى الله
+
+281
+00:29:10,990 --> 00:29:15,270
+عليه وسلم كتابه أسلم تسلم يؤتيك الله أجرك مرتين
+
+282
+00:29:15,270 --> 00:29:21,030
+وصل هذا الخطاب الخطاب النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم إلى
+
+283
+00:29:21,030 --> 00:29:26,150
+هراقل ملك الرومفكان له موقف أن جمع العرب الذين
+
+284
+00:29:26,150 --> 00:29:32,350
+كانوا يذهبون إلى مملكته في التجارة وسأل عن أقرب
+
+285
+00:29:32,350 --> 00:29:37,150
+الناس إلى هذا الذي يدعي النبوة الذي أرسل الرسالة
+
+286
+00:29:37,150 --> 00:29:43,890
+إلى محمد يعني فكان أبو سفيان ممن كانوا في مملكته
+
+287
+00:29:43,890 --> 00:29:52,820
+هرقلهراقل ملك الروم وهذا حديث يرويه الإمام البخاري
+
+288
+00:29:52,820 --> 00:29:58,000
+يعني فيه صح الكتب بعد كتاب الله تبارك وتعالى يرويه
+
+289
+00:29:58,000 --> 00:30:02,400
+لنا الراوي الأعلى هو ابن عباس رضوان الله عليه وكان
+
+290
+00:30:02,400 --> 00:30:09,450
+قد أخبره به أبو سفيان فابو سفيان بعد ذلك أسلمأسلم
+
+291
+00:30:09,450 --> 00:30:14,610
+وحصل إسلامه والعلماء ترجموا له في الصحابة هو من
+
+292
+00:30:14,610 --> 00:30:19,670
+الصحاب الكرام رضوان الله عليهم جميعا فأبو سفيان
+
+293
+00:30:19,670 --> 00:30:23,790
+حدث ابن عباس وابن عباس هو الذي يروي لنا هذه
+
+294
+00:30:23,790 --> 00:30:28,230
+الرسالة ماذا حدث ابو سفيان ابن عباس وهذا ما يرويه
+
+295
+00:30:28,230 --> 00:30:32,730
+لنا البخاري بدوره أنه راقل أرسل إليه في رقب من
+
+296
+00:30:32,730 --> 00:30:40,570
+قريش وكانوا تجارةبالشام فدعاهم في مجلسه وحوله
+
+297
+00:30:40,570 --> 00:30:47,590
+عظماء الروم ثم دعاهم ودعا بترجمانه هذا هراقل فقال
+
+298
+00:30:47,590 --> 00:30:52,650
+ايكم اقرب نسبا بهذا الرجل الذي يزعم انه نبي فقال
+
+299
+00:30:52,650 --> 00:30:58,450
+ابو سفيان انا اقربهم نسبا فقال ادنوه مني يعني جعل
+
+300
+00:30:58,450 --> 00:31:05,230
+ابو سفيان قريب منهوقرّبوا أصحابه فاجعلوهم عند ظهره
+
+301
+00:31:05,230 --> 00:31:11,810
+يعني اجعلوا أصحاب أبو سفيان خلفه ثم قال إهراقل قال
+
+302
+00:31:11,810 --> 00:31:17,230
+لترجمانه إني سائل هذا الرجل أنا هسأل أبو سفيان فإن
+
+303
+00:31:17,230 --> 00:31:22,390
+كذبني إذا كذب علي فكذبوه اعطوني إشارة بس اعطوني
+
+304
+00:31:22,390 --> 00:31:27,270
+إشارة فوالله هذا أبو سفيان بيقول اسمعي حتى نعرف
+
+305
+00:31:27,270 --> 00:31:33,780
+حتى أن الكذبمقبوه قبيح حتى عند أهل الجاهلية لكن
+
+306
+00:31:33,780 --> 00:31:38,220
+اليوم للأسف الشديد أساسة من قادة الدول العربية
+
+307
+00:31:38,220 --> 00:31:45,100
+كلهم يكذبون بيقول أبو سفيانواه على الجاهلية يومها
+
+308
+00:31:45,100 --> 00:31:50,860
+لم يسلم بعد بيقول فوالله لو لا الحياء من أن يأثروا
+
+309
+00:31:50,860 --> 00:31:56,640
+علي كذبا لكذبت عنه لكذبت على محمد في الأسئلة اللي
+
+310
+00:31:56,640 --> 00:32:03,060
+سئلتهافي الإجابات اللي جوابت كان كذبت عليه لكن أنا
+
+311
+00:32:03,060 --> 00:32:10,300
+عربي حر لا أقبل أن يسجل علي أنني إيه أنني كذبا ثم
+
+312
+00:32:10,300 --> 00:32:15,420
+كان أول ما سألني عنه أن قال أول سؤال هذا هرقل الآن
+
+313
+00:32:15,420 --> 00:32:20,320
+هيسأل أبو سفيان اسمع الأسئلة كيف نسبه فيكم هذا
+
+314
+00:32:20,320 --> 00:32:26,960
+الذي يدعى النبوة كيف نسبه فيكم قال قلت هو فينا ذو
+
+315
+00:32:26,960 --> 00:32:32,850
+نسبهو من أشرف القول هو استفاء الله عز وجل واستفانى
+
+316
+00:32:32,850 --> 00:32:39,090
+من قريش واستفى قريش من كنانة فإذا استفاء من استفاء
+
+317
+00:32:39,090 --> 00:32:43,370
+من استفاء هو
+
+318
+00:32:43,370 --> 00:32:47,550
+فينا ذو نسب هو من بني هاشم عليه الصلاة والسلام قال
+
+319
+00:32:47,550 --> 00:32:53,610
+فهل قال هذا القول منكم أحد قد قبله من العرب من
+
+320
+00:32:53,610 --> 00:33:00,210
+العرب هل في واحد ادعى النبوةقلت لا هو أصلا هو
+
+321
+00:33:00,210 --> 00:33:05,850
+النبي العربي الوحيد الذي كان من ناس الإسماعيل عليه
+
+322
+00:33:05,850 --> 00:33:09,770
+السلام وإلا الباقي كلهم من ناس الإسحاق عليهم
+
+323
+00:33:09,770 --> 00:33:17,730
+السلام قال فهل كان من أبائه من ملك؟ في حدا من
+
+324
+00:33:17,730 --> 00:33:24,910
+أجداده، أبوه، جد جده كان ملكا؟ قلت لا، أبو سفيان
+
+325
+00:33:24,910 --> 00:33:29,530
+قال لأقال فأشرف الناس يتبعونه أم ضعفائهم؟ مين
+
+326
+00:33:29,530 --> 00:33:36,550
+بيتبعوه؟ من يتبعه؟ من هم أتباعه؟ قلت ضعفائهم قال أ
+
+327
+00:33:36,550 --> 00:33:42,730
+يزيدون أم ينقصون؟ قلت بل يزيدون انت لاحظ الآن أن
+
+328
+00:33:42,730 --> 00:33:47,650
+الأسئلة متتالية ومافيش نفس يعني مافيش وقت بين
+
+329
+00:33:47,650 --> 00:33:52,970
+السؤال و أخوه، بين السؤال والتاليلا يترك له مجال
+
+330
+00:33:52,970 --> 00:33:57,470
+للكلام الكثير، الكلام مختصر جدا، الإجابة قال هل
+
+331
+00:33:57,470 --> 00:34:02,850
+يرتد أحد منهم سخطط لدينه بعد أن يدخل فيه؟ يعني لما
+
+332
+00:34:02,850 --> 00:34:07,730
+تمسكوا الواحد منهم و اتعذبوه عذاب شديد، هل بيترك
+
+333
+00:34:07,730 --> 00:34:13,490
+دينه؟ بيرتد واحد بعد ما يدخل الإسلام؟ قلت لا كم
+
+334
+00:34:13,490 --> 00:34:23,720
+عذب؟بلال رضوان الله عليه عمار بن ياسر والده امه
+
+335
+00:34:23,720 --> 00:34:30,860
+سمية الى غير ذلك لم يترك احد منهم دينه قلت فهل
+
+336
+00:34:30,860 --> 00:34:36,900
+كنتم تتهمونه بالكذب قبل ان يقول ما قال؟ هو كان
+
+337
+00:34:36,900 --> 00:34:43,160
+عايش بينكم وانتوا عارفينه كويس هل كان يكذب احيانا؟
+
+338
+00:34:43,610 --> 00:34:48,330
+تعرفوا كده ملعوب يعني كده؟ قلت لا، بالعكس هو معروف
+
+339
+00:34:48,330 --> 00:34:53,390
+عندهم ايه؟ الصادق الأمين صحيه ولا مش صحيه؟ هذه
+
+340
+00:34:53,390 --> 00:34:57,590
+شهرته صلى الله عليه وسلم بينهم وكانوا قد أوضعوا
+
+341
+00:34:57,590 --> 00:35:04,310
+عنده أماناتهم ولمّا هاجر النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم
+
+342
+00:35:04,310 --> 00:35:11,120
+ترك علي بن أبي طالب ليوصل لهم ايه؟ أماناتهمهل كنتم
+
+343
+00:35:11,120 --> 00:35:15,860
+تتهمونه بالكذب قبل أن يقول ما قال؟ قلت لا قال فهل
+
+344
+00:35:15,860 --> 00:35:18,960
+يغضر؟
+
+345
+00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:25,680
+اسمع الإجابة قلت لا و زرقله كلمتين اللي هو ايه؟
+
+346
+00:35:25,680 --> 00:35:30,870
+ابو سفيانزود في الإجابة غير كلمة لا لحظة كل
+
+347
+00:35:30,870 --> 00:35:35,910
+الإجابات لا لا أو مقتصرة قلت لا ونحن منه في مدة لا
+
+348
+00:35:35,910 --> 00:35:40,630
+ندري ما هو فاعل منها صح مخضرش لكن احنا الا مدة
+
+349
+00:35:40,630 --> 00:35:44,810
+طويلة و احنا مختلفين معاه يمكن صار يخضر بده شكك
+
+350
+00:35:44,810 --> 00:35:49,710
+يعني اه؟ بده شكك ونحن منه في مدة لا ندري ما هو
+
+351
+00:35:49,710 --> 00:35:55,030
+فاعل فيها قال ولم تمكنني كلمة أدخل فيها شيئا غير
+
+352
+00:35:55,030 --> 00:35:59,680
+هذه الكلمةما اتمكنت هو يعني ايه مستمر في الأسئلة
+
+353
+00:35:59,680 --> 00:36:04,160
+سؤال و لا سؤال سؤال و لا سؤال ممكننيش من اني يعني
+
+354
+00:36:04,160 --> 00:36:10,160
+ازود كلام إلا هالكلمتين هادوله قال فهل قاتلتموه
+
+355
+00:36:10,160 --> 00:36:16,380
+قلت نعم قال فكيف قتالكم إيا قلت الحرب بيننا و بينه
+
+356
+00:36:16,380 --> 00:36:21,100
+سجال ينالوا مننا و ننالوا منه يعني أحيانا بنتصر
+
+357
+00:36:21,100 --> 00:36:24,060
+عليهم و أحيانا بنتصر علينا مثل غزوة بدر و غزوة أحد
+
+358
+00:36:24,060 --> 00:36:32,080
+مثلااين انا؟ قال ماذا يأمركم؟ لعله هذا بيذكرنا
+
+359
+00:36:32,080 --> 00:36:37,960
+بالنظر في جوهر الرسالة ماذا يأمركم؟ قلت يقول
+
+360
+00:36:37,960 --> 00:36:44,200
+اعبدوا الله وحده ولا تشريكوا به شيئا واتركوا ما
+
+361
+00:36:44,200 --> 00:36:48,700
+يقولوا أبائكم ويأمرنا بالصلاة والصدر والعفاف
+
+362
+00:36:48,700 --> 00:36:57,620
+والصلة فقال الترجمان قل لهخلاص الآن خلصت الأسئلة
+
+363
+00:36:57,620 --> 00:37:03,580
+عند راقل الأسئلة خلصت الآن بده يبدأ الاستنتاج هو
+
+364
+00:37:03,580 --> 00:37:08,500
+ملك، ملك البلاد وهو إنسان عاقل بالتأكيد يستطيع أن
+
+365
+00:37:08,500 --> 00:37:14,540
+يستنتج وأن يعمل عقله وأن يصل إلى نتائج حسنة
+
+366
+00:37:14,540 --> 00:37:18,740
+يستفيدها من خلال هذا النقاش الطويل فقال للترجمان
+
+367
+00:37:18,740 --> 00:37:25,650
+قل له سألتك عن نسبه فذكرت أنه فيكم ذو نسبفكذلك
+
+368
+00:37:25,650 --> 00:37:30,450
+الرسل تبعثوا في نسب قومها، يعني في أشرف نسب من
+
+369
+00:37:30,450 --> 00:37:35,830
+أنساب قومها، النبي لا يكون وضيعا يا أخواتي، وهذا
+
+370
+00:37:35,830 --> 00:37:40,850
+سيأتي ان شاء الله في شروط النبوة، لا يكون وضيعا،
+
+371
+00:37:40,850 --> 00:37:48,570
+لا يكون ابن زنا، لا يكون عبدا، أيوةلا يكون عبدًا،
+
+372
+00:37:48,570 --> 00:37:52,350
+لا يكون ابن زنا، لا يكون والده مثلًا تاجر خمر
+
+373
+00:37:52,350 --> 00:37:58,610
+مشهور، لأنه يعيّر، يعيّر بذلك، لو كان كذلك، يعيّر،
+
+374
+00:37:58,610 --> 00:38:04,270
+فهو من أشرف الأنساب، وسألتك هل قال أحد منكم هذا
+
+375
+00:38:04,270 --> 00:38:10,890
+القول، فذكرت أن لا، فقلت لو كان أحد قال هذا القول
+
+376
+00:38:10,890 --> 00:38:16,570
+قبله، لقولت رجل يتأثى بقول قيل قبله، يعني يجلد
+
+377
+00:38:16,570 --> 00:38:21,120
+غيره،بدو يجلد غيره زي ما فلان سوى زعيم فيها و طلع
+
+378
+00:38:21,120 --> 00:38:25,140
+فيها و سوى انقلاب و كده هو أيضا ايه عاوز يسوي مثله
+
+379
+00:38:25,140 --> 00:38:30,740
+وسألتك هل كان من أبائه من ملك؟ من أبائه وأجداده
+
+380
+00:38:30,740 --> 00:38:35,340
+فذكرت ان لا قلت لو كان .. هاي للإستنتاج .. لو كان
+
+381
+00:38:35,340 --> 00:38:40,940
+من أبائه من ملك قلت رجل يطلب ملك أبيه واحد بدو
+
+382
+00:38:40,940 --> 00:38:46,500
+ياخد طار والد وبدو يعيد أمجاد الملك بتاع أهله
+
+383
+00:38:47,330 --> 00:38:54,650
+وسألتك هل كنتم تتهمونه بالكذب؟ هل كنتم تتهمونه
+
+384
+00:38:54,650 --> 00:38:59,810
+بالكذب قبل أن يقول ما قال؟ فذكرت أن لا فقد أعرف
+
+385
+00:38:59,810 --> 00:39:06,030
+وأنا بعرف، بعرف يقينا أنه لم يكن ليظهر الكذب على
+
+386
+00:39:06,030 --> 00:39:12,930
+الناس ويكذب على الله، مستحيل واحد طول عمره يكون
+
+387
+00:39:12,930 --> 00:39:18,580
+صادق مع الناسو يجترق الكذب على الله عز وجل، هذا
+
+388
+00:39:18,580 --> 00:39:23,000
+أمر مستحيل، هذا بالعجل يعني الشغل، أنا بأهضمهاش
+
+389
+00:39:23,000 --> 00:39:28,060
+يعني، هو بقوله بأهضمهاش، يعني لو قلت آه بيكذب على
+
+390
+00:39:28,060 --> 00:39:30,860
+الناس، ممكن أقول بيكذب على الله، لكن بيكذبش على
+
+391
+00:39:30,860 --> 00:39:34,160
+الناس، و يجي يكذب على الله، يدعي النبوة، هذا أمر
+
+392
+00:39:34,160 --> 00:39:41,100
+مستحيل و سألتك أشراف الناس اتبعوه أم ضعفاؤهم،
+
+393
+00:39:41,100 --> 00:39:47,660
+فذكرت أن ضعفاؤهم اتبعوهوهم أتباع الرسل، هم دائما
+
+394
+00:39:47,660 --> 00:39:51,840
+أتباع الرسل، لأن المستضعفين هؤلاء هم اللي بيبحثوا
+
+395
+00:39:51,840 --> 00:39:55,800
+عن العدالة، هم اللي بيبحثوا عن الإنصاف، هم لا
+
+396
+00:39:55,800 --> 00:40:01,260
+يجدوا العدالة والإنصاف والعزة والكرامة والمساواة
+
+397
+00:40:01,260 --> 00:40:06,280
+إلا في ظل دعوة السماء، إلا في ظل اتباع الأنبياء
+
+398
+00:40:07,200 --> 00:40:13,520
+وسألتك أ يزيدون أم ينقصون فذكرت أنهم يزيدون وكذلك
+
+399
+00:40:13,520 --> 00:40:18,420
+الإيمان حتى يتم كذلك الإيمان يبدأ خافة زي النور
+
+400
+00:40:18,420 --> 00:40:23,100
+يبدأ خافة ثم ينتشر ينتشر ينتشر حتى يملأ المكان
+
+401
+00:40:23,100 --> 00:40:31,680
+وسألتك أ يرتد أحد سخططا لدينه بعد أن يدخل فيه في
+
+402
+00:40:31,680 --> 00:40:40,660
+حد برتد ببطلفذكرت أن لا و كذلك الإيمان حين تخالط
+
+403
+00:40:40,660 --> 00:40:45,440
+بشاشته القلوب، مافي إمكانية إن الإنسان يتراجع،
+
+404
+00:40:45,440 --> 00:40:51,760
+أصحاب العقيدة الصلبة السليمة القوية يثبتون في
+
+405
+00:40:51,760 --> 00:40:56,420
+المحن والشدائد، هكذا العقيدة تفعل بأصحابها رضوان
+
+406
+00:40:56,420 --> 00:41:00,740
+الله عليهمرضوان الله عن الصحابة وكذلك كانوا نماذج
+
+407
+00:41:00,740 --> 00:41:07,500
+في ذلك والعقيدة الإسلامية تفعل فعلها في أتباعها
+
+408
+00:41:07,500 --> 00:41:11,020
+على مدار التاريخ سواء في جيل الصحابة أو في غيرهم
+
+409
+00:41:11,020 --> 00:41:15,260
+ولعلنا نرى اليوم بفضل الله عز وجل من أبناء شعبنا
+
+410
+00:41:15,260 --> 00:41:19,700
+من يتصفون بالبطولة والرجولة والثبات والإقدام
+
+411
+00:41:19,700 --> 00:41:26,220
+والاستبسال ومواجهة الأعداء بكل قوة وبكل يعني
+
+412
+00:41:26,220 --> 00:41:33,440
+الواحد منهميصبر على الجوع ويبقى في خندقه لعله
+
+413
+00:41:33,440 --> 00:41:38,920
+يمصوا شيئا من التمر، بعض التمرات، يبقى في خندقه
+
+414
+00:41:38,920 --> 00:41:42,980
+أيام، وهذا رأيناه في الحروب السابقة، الثلاثة،
+
+415
+00:41:42,980 --> 00:41:47,360
+سمعنا أشياء تكاد أن تكون معجزات، تكاد أن تكون
+
+416
+00:41:47,360 --> 00:41:53,860
+معجزات، أي نعم، فهذه هي طبيعة العقيدة، وسألتك هل
+
+417
+00:41:53,860 --> 00:42:02,570
+يغضر؟فذكرت أن لا وكذلك الرسل لا تغضر أبدًا أبدًا
+
+418
+00:42:02,570 --> 00:42:08,630
+الرسل لا تغضر وسألتك بما يأمركم فذكرت أنه يأمركم
+
+419
+00:42:08,630 --> 00:42:13,090
+أن تعبدوا الله ولا تشركوا به شيئًا وينهاكم عن
+
+420
+00:42:13,090 --> 00:42:17,510
+عبادة الأوثان ويأمركم بالصلاة والصدق والعفاف
+
+421
+00:42:17,510 --> 00:42:23,870
+وبالتأكيد هذه أصلا قواس مشتركة بين كل الرسالات
+
+422
+00:42:23,870 --> 00:42:29,660
+والشرائع السابقةكل الأنبياء السابقين دعوا أقوامهم
+
+423
+00:42:29,660 --> 00:42:35,380
+إلى عبادة الله وحده وعدم الإشراك به وكانوا ينهون
+
+424
+00:42:35,380 --> 00:42:39,600
+أقوامهم عن عبادة الأوثان كانوا يأمرونهم بالصلاة
+
+425
+00:42:39,600 --> 00:42:43,340
+والصدق والعفاف فهذه كلها قواسم مشتركة بين كل
+
+426
+00:42:43,340 --> 00:42:49,440
+الأنبياء السابقين انتهى الرجل انتهى من هذا الحوار
+
+427
+00:42:49,440 --> 00:42:51,940
+الطويل الجميل الشائق الماتع
+
+428
+00:42:54,360 --> 00:43:00,380
+ما هو موقفه؟ قال لأبي سفيان مخاطبا يا أبو سفيان
+
+429
+00:43:00,380 --> 00:43:06,560
+اسمع أنت وجماعتك فإن كان ما تقول حقا عن هذا الرجل
+
+430
+00:43:06,560 --> 00:43:12,160
+الذي يدعي النبوة والذي أرسل ليه كتابا إن كان ما
+
+431
+00:43:12,160 --> 00:43:18,520
+تقول حقا فسيملك موضع قدمي هاتين وقد كنت أعلم أنه
+
+432
+00:43:18,520 --> 00:43:26,600
+خارج أنا كنت معرف أنه سيخرجفانا كتابي انا ديني دين
+
+433
+00:43:26,600 --> 00:43:30,960
+النصرانية الكتاب
+
+434
+00:43:30,960 --> 00:43:38,180
+الذي اؤمن به واعتقد به بشره بخروج رسول في اخر
+
+435
+00:43:38,180 --> 00:43:44,240
+الزمان قد كنت اعلم انه خارج لكن لم اكن اظن انه
+
+436
+00:43:44,240 --> 00:43:48,760
+منكم اليهود والنصارى يا اخوتي اليهود تحديدا كانوا
+
+437
+00:43:48,760 --> 00:43:58,270
+يعلمون كانوا يعلمونأن بل كانوا يهددون الوثنيين أنه
+
+438
+00:43:58,270 --> 00:44:03,710
+سيخرج نبي في آخر الزمان فإن خرج سنؤمن به وسنتبعه
+
+439
+00:44:03,710 --> 00:44:10,830
+وسنقاتلكم معه لكن لما خرج ليس منهم ليس من نسل
+
+440
+00:44:10,830 --> 00:44:16,590
+إسحاق عليه السلام تنكروا له لم أكن أظن أنه منكم
+
+441
+00:44:16,590 --> 00:44:21,570
+وهذا ما سنتحدث عنه في اللقاء القادم بشارة الكتب
+
+442
+00:44:21,570 --> 00:44:26,500
+السابقةبهذا النبي هو دليل مستقل سنفرض له ان شاء
+
+443
+00:44:26,500 --> 00:44:33,600
+الله المحاضرة القادمة لم أكن أظن أنه منكم ثم يتمنى
+
+444
+00:44:33,600 --> 00:44:42,640
+هذا لعله يعني فيض من فطرته السليمة فطرته السليمة
+
+445
+00:44:42,640 --> 00:44:49,560
+قال فلو أعلم أني أخلص إليه لو أعرف لو كنت متيقنا
+
+446
+00:44:49,560 --> 00:44:57,240
+لو تمكنتأن أصل إليه لتجشمت لقاءه يعني لتحملت
+
+447
+00:44:57,240 --> 00:45:04,140
+المشاق من أجل لقائه ومقابلته بل أكثر من ذلك و لو
+
+448
+00:45:04,140 --> 00:45:09,640
+كنت عنده لغسلت عن قدمه لأمسكت بالإبريق أسكب الماء
+
+449
+00:45:09,640 --> 00:45:16,680
+خادما له على قدميه ليغسل قدميه هذه أمنيات رقل ملك
+
+450
+00:45:16,680 --> 00:45:26,280
+الروم لكنه في آخر لحظة ضنظن بملكه فلم يتجاوب
+
+451
+00:45:26,280 --> 00:45:33,500
+للإيمان خشي على نفسه خشي على ملكه خشي من من يطوق
+
+452
+00:45:33,500 --> 00:45:41,940
+به من القساوس والرهبان خشي على نفسه القتل فبقى على
+
+453
+00:45:41,940 --> 00:45:49,540
+شركه الله تعالى أعلى وأعلى لكن ما يستفاد من هذهمن
+
+454
+00:45:49,540 --> 00:45:54,260
+هذا الحديث الطويل الذي يرويه الإمام البخاري هو أن
+
+455
+00:45:54,260 --> 00:46:01,280
+هذا الرجل أعمل عقله أعمل عقله وكل إنسان عاقل لو
+
+456
+00:46:01,280 --> 00:46:07,680
+أعمل عقله شيئا يسيرا لتمكن من اكتشاف ومعرفة أن
+
+457
+00:46:07,680 --> 00:46:11,020
+النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم صادق في دعواه هذا دليل من
+
+458
+00:46:11,020 --> 00:46:15,360
+أدلة النبوة النقطة الرابعة في هذا الموضوع لو كان
+
+459
+00:46:15,360 --> 00:46:21,330
+المشركونلو كان المشركون يسمون النبي الصادق الأمين
+
+460
+00:46:21,330 --> 00:46:25,910
+لقد كان المشركون يسمون النبي الصادق الأمين قبل
+
+461
+00:46:25,910 --> 00:46:32,150
+بعثته بل كانت ودائهم عنده لأمانته في يوم من الأيام
+
+462
+00:46:32,150 --> 00:46:40,170
+يقف على جبل الصفة وينادي عليهم فياتون اليه فياتون
+
+463
+00:46:40,170 --> 00:46:45,970
+اليه فيقول لهم صلى الله عليه وسلم أرايتم لو
+
+464
+00:46:45,970 --> 00:46:52,950
+أخبرتكمأن خيلًا أن خيلًا تريدوا أن تغير عليكم
+
+465
+00:46:52,950 --> 00:46:57,810
+أكنتوا مصدقي فقالوا له ما جربنا عليك كذبة انت مروف
+
+466
+00:46:57,810 --> 00:47:05,250
+عندنا الصادق الأمين ما جربنا عليك كذبة فقال لهم
+
+467
+00:47:05,250 --> 00:47:11,530
+اني رسول الله اليكم بين يدي عذاب أليم طبعا كانت
+
+468
+00:47:11,530 --> 00:47:17,650
+إجابة ابو جهل تبا لك لهذا جمعتنا سائر اليوملهذا
+
+469
+00:47:17,650 --> 00:47:24,310
+جمعتنا السايرة اليوم، لكن هذا دليل أيضًا على صدق
+
+470
+00:47:24,310 --> 00:47:28,350
+النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم، فبشيء يسير من التفكر في
+
+471
+00:47:28,350 --> 00:47:33,980
+حاله، هو مشهور عندهم أنه الصادق الأمينثم هو عاش
+
+472
+00:47:33,980 --> 00:47:38,740
+فيهم دهرا طويلا وهو يتصف بهذا الصفة وهذا ما سجله
+
+473
+00:47:38,740 --> 00:47:43,980
+الله عز وجل في حقه قل لو شاء الله ما تلوته عليكم
+
+474
+00:47:43,980 --> 00:47:49,600
+ولا أدراكم به فقد لبثت فيكم عمرا من قبله أفلا
+
+475
+00:47:49,600 --> 00:47:53,890
+تعقلون؟ أفلا تتدبرون؟ألا تذكرون تلك السنين
+
+476
+00:47:53,890 --> 00:47:58,870
+الخوالي؟ أربعين عاما أعيش بينكم و أنتم تنعتونني
+
+477
+00:47:58,870 --> 00:48:04,610
+بالصادق الأمين اليوم اليوم أنا آتي لأخبركم أنني
+
+478
+00:48:04,610 --> 00:48:11,030
+رسول الله ثم تكذبونني؟ هذا أمر عجيب منكم فهذه
+
+479
+00:48:11,030 --> 00:48:16,100
+الأدلة الصادقة يا أخواتييعني هي من أدلة من دلائل
+
+480
+00:48:16,100 --> 00:48:20,500
+النبوة والمحاضرة القادمة إن شاء الله تعالى نأتي
+
+481
+00:48:20,500 --> 00:48:24,100
+إلى الدليل الرابع وهي إخبار الرسل السابقين له
+
+482
+00:48:24,100 --> 00:48:29,420
+بصفاته وانطباقها عليه تماما وهذا سيكون إن شاء الله
+
+483
+00:48:29,420 --> 00:48:33,180
+موضوع مستقل للمحاضرة القادمة بركة
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/LAF6avTY1_E_postprocess.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/LAF6avTY1_E_postprocess.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..d72f210884759e971122fdc699167de8b9d3e6ca
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/LAF6avTY1_E_postprocess.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1816 @@
+1
+00:00:20,890 --> 00:00:24,530
+أعوذ بالله السميع العلي من الشيطان الرجيم بسم الله
+
+2
+00:00:24,530 --> 00:00:29,030
+الرحمن الرحيم الحمد لله رب العالمين وأصلي وأصلم
+
+3
+00:00:29,030 --> 00:00:32,610
+على رسول الله الأمين محمد بن عبد الله الصادق
+
+4
+00:00:32,610 --> 00:00:37,070
+الأمين صلى الله عليه وعلى آله وصحبه وسلم أجمعينا
+
+5
+00:00:37,070 --> 00:00:45,510
+وبعد بعد أن ذكرنا أسماء اليوم الآخر نبدأ اليوم في
+
+6
+00:00:45,510 --> 00:00:52,580
+موضوع انهام وهو مذاب الناس في البعثفالناس مختلفون
+
+7
+00:00:52,580 --> 00:00:57,640
+أشد الإختلاف في هذا الأمر كما قال تبارك وتعالى عما
+
+8
+00:00:57,640 --> 00:01:03,240
+يتساءلون عن النبأ العظيم والمقصود بالنبأ العظيم هو
+
+9
+00:01:03,240 --> 00:01:08,080
+يوم القيامة وهو موضوعنا ويمكن لنا أن نصنف الناس
+
+10
+00:01:08,080 --> 00:01:14,980
+قديما وحديثا من حيث مذاهبهمفي البعث واعتقاداتهم
+
+11
+00:01:14,980 --> 00:01:20,160
+إلى أصناف أربعة الموجود أمامنا ثلاثة لكن سنضيف
+
+12
+00:01:20,160 --> 00:01:24,200
+إليهم صنف أو نستنبطه استنباط سيكون الحديث معناه
+
+13
+00:01:24,200 --> 00:01:28,700
+أيه فيه تلقائيا يعني يمكننا أن نصنف المكذبين
+
+14
+00:01:28,700 --> 00:01:35,360
+بالبعث و النشور إلى ثلاثة أصناف هؤلاء المكذبين
+
+15
+00:01:35,360 --> 00:01:40,650
+هناك صنف رابع وهو المصدقوهو المصدق وهو مذهب أهل
+
+16
+00:01:40,650 --> 00:01:45,710
+الصناعة والجماعة فيصبح مذاهب الناس أربع لكن
+
+17
+00:01:45,710 --> 00:01:51,210
+المكذبين منهم ثلاثة المكذبين بالبعض ثلاثة أول
+
+18
+00:01:51,210 --> 00:01:55,170
+هؤلاء المكذبين الملاحدة الذين أنكروا وجود الخالق
+
+19
+00:01:55,170 --> 00:02:00,350
+تبارك وتعالى هؤلاء الفلاسفة الدهريين الطبائعيين
+
+20
+00:02:00,350 --> 00:02:05,050
+الذين يعني أنكروا وجود الخالق تبارك وتعالى جملة
+
+21
+00:02:05,850 --> 00:02:10,730
+يعني ما تبقى منهم في هذه الأيام إلا الشيوعيون في
+
+22
+00:02:10,730 --> 00:02:16,070
+عصرنا ينكرون صدور الخلق عن الخالق فهؤلاء أصلا
+
+23
+00:02:16,070 --> 00:02:19,410
+ينكرون النشأة الأولى وبالتالي ينكرون النشأة
+
+24
+00:02:19,410 --> 00:02:23,730
+الثانية ينكرون أن الله أصلا خلقنا وبالتالي ينكرون
+
+25
+00:02:23,730 --> 00:02:30,070
+أن الله سيبعثنا يوم القيامة فهؤلاء حقيقة من العبث
+
+26
+00:02:30,070 --> 00:02:36,560
+أن نناقشهم في البعثالأولى إذا كنا نريد أن نرتب
+
+27
+00:02:36,560 --> 00:02:41,580
+الأولويات الأولى أن نناقشهم في إثبات وجود الخالق
+
+28
+00:02:41,580 --> 00:02:46,780
+في إثبات وجود الخالق قبل أن نناقشهم في إثبات البعث
+
+29
+00:02:46,780 --> 00:02:52,420
+فإن ثبت لهم أن للكون خالقًا وأنه أرسل رسولًا وأنزل
+
+30
+00:02:52,420 --> 00:02:58,640
+كتبًا وأثبتنا لهم أن الله عز وجل أخبر على لسان
+
+31
+00:02:58,640 --> 00:03:05,370
+رسوله وفي كتبهأنه سيحاسب الناس يوم القيامة في هذا
+
+32
+00:03:05,370 --> 00:03:10,130
+البعث يقول الأمر منطقيا فباب أولى ألا نناقشهم
+
+33
+00:03:10,130 --> 00:03:14,850
+الأولى أن نثبت لهم ابتداء وجود الخالق تبارك وتعالى
+
+34
+00:03:14,850 --> 00:03:19,590
+هذا الصنف الأول الصنف الثاني ممن يكذبون بالبعث
+
+35
+00:03:19,590 --> 00:03:24,910
+الذين يعترفون بوجود خالق لكنهم يكذبون بالبعث
+
+36
+00:03:24,910 --> 00:03:31,090
+والنشور منهم العرب مشركو العربمشركو مكة كانوا هكذا
+
+37
+00:03:31,090 --> 00:03:36,110
+ولئن سألتهم من خلق السماوات والأرض ليقولون الله
+
+38
+00:03:36,110 --> 00:03:42,310
+لكن كانوا يعجبون أشد العجب عندما يخبرهم النبي صلى
+
+39
+00:03:42,310 --> 00:03:47,170
+الله عليه وسلمأن الله سيبعثهم يوم القيامة
+
+40
+00:03:47,170 --> 00:03:52,170
+وسيحاسبون على أعمالهم وقال الذين كفروا أذا كنا
+
+41
+00:03:52,170 --> 00:04:01,450
+ترابا وآباؤنا أإنا لمخرجون؟ لقد
+
+42
+00:04:01,450 --> 00:04:05,910
+وعدنا هذا نحن وآباؤنا من قبل إن هذا إلا هساطير
+
+43
+00:04:05,910 --> 00:04:12,930
+الأولين هكذا كانوا يعتقدون فهؤلاء يعترفون بالخالق
+
+44
+00:04:13,950 --> 00:04:19,730
+ولكنهم ينكرون الإيه؟ يكذبون بالبعث والنشور، هؤلاء
+
+45
+00:04:19,730 --> 00:04:25,350
+يدّون أنهم يؤمنون بالله، ولكن يزعمون أن قدرة الله
+
+46
+00:04:25,350 --> 00:04:30,580
+عاجزة عن إحيائهم بعد إماتتهميعني بعد أن مرت عليهم
+
+47
+00:04:30,580 --> 00:04:37,320
+الظهور والعصور والسنون، كيف لله عز وجل أن يبعثهم
+
+48
+00:04:37,320 --> 00:04:43,180
+بعد أن ضلت وماعت وساحت واختلط عظامهم وأجسادهم
+
+49
+00:04:43,180 --> 00:04:47,700
+بالتراب ومرت عليها ألوف ألوف السنين؟ كيف سيبعثهم
+
+50
+00:04:47,700 --> 00:04:52,810
+الله تبارك وتعالى؟ لذلك هم يستبعدونو يستعظمون و
+
+51
+00:04:52,810 --> 00:04:58,930
+يستهجنون و ينكرون البعث و النشور ينكرون أن الله عز
+
+52
+00:04:58,930 --> 00:05:04,570
+و جل سيبعثنا هناك فرقة من اليهود تسمى الصادقيون
+
+53
+00:05:04,570 --> 00:05:09,810
+الصادقيين هؤلاء يزعمون أنهم لا يؤمنون إلا بتوراة
+
+54
+00:05:09,810 --> 00:05:13,310
+موسى أيضا هم يكذبون بالبعث و النشور و يكذبون
+
+55
+00:05:13,310 --> 00:05:19,500
+بالجنة و النار هم يعتقدون بوجود الخالقيعتقدون كأهل
+
+56
+00:05:19,500 --> 00:05:27,280
+مكة كالقراشيين كمشركي مكة يعتقدون بوجود خلق لكن
+
+57
+00:05:27,280 --> 00:05:33,920
+ينكرون البعث الفريق الثالث من الذين يكذبون بالبعث
+
+58
+00:05:33,920 --> 00:05:39,040
+الذين يؤمنون بالمعاد بأمنوا بالبعث لكن على غير
+
+59
+00:05:39,040 --> 00:05:45,220
+الصفة التي جاءت بها الشرائع السماويةعلى غير الصفة
+
+60
+00:05:45,220 --> 00:05:49,400
+التي جاءت بها الشراعي السنوية هم يعتقدون بالبعث
+
+61
+00:05:50,040 --> 00:05:55,720
+يعتقدون بأن الإنسان سيعذب أو ينعم لكن على غير
+
+62
+00:05:55,720 --> 00:06:00,700
+الطريقة وبغير الوصف الذي جاء مثلا في القرآن الكريم
+
+63
+00:06:00,700 --> 00:06:05,180
+وكما جاء في سنة نبينا صلى الله عليه وسلم من هؤلاء
+
+64
+00:06:05,180 --> 00:06:12,900
+مثلا الهنود الذين يعتقدون يعتقدون بتناسخ الأرواح
+
+65
+00:06:12,900 --> 00:06:19,290
+فهؤلاء يعتقدون أن الإنسان إن ماتالإنسان إن كان
+
+66
+00:06:19,290 --> 00:06:25,010
+رجلا مثلا تنتقل روحه إلى وليد صغير تنتقل روحه إلى
+
+67
+00:06:25,010 --> 00:06:32,510
+وليد صغير ثم إذا كان هذا الرجل خيرا تنتقل روحه في
+
+68
+00:06:32,510 --> 00:06:39,970
+سبعة دورات في .. في أناس أخيار وهذا هو النعيم مرة
+
+69
+00:06:39,970 --> 00:06:45,480
+أخرىهؤلاء الذين يؤمنون بالمعاد على غير الصفة التي
+
+70
+00:06:45,480 --> 00:06:51,100
+جاءت بها الشرع السماوية، أضرب لهم مثلا بالهنود
+
+71
+00:06:51,100 --> 00:06:55,480
+الذين يعتقدون بتناسق الأرواح، تناسق الأرواح معناها
+
+72
+00:06:55,480 --> 00:07:00,820
+انتقال الروح من بدن إلى بدنفهم يعتقدون أن الرجل إن
+
+73
+00:07:00,820 --> 00:07:05,520
+كان خيرا في الدنيا ومات، تنتقل روحه إلى وليد صغير،
+
+74
+00:07:05,520 --> 00:07:09,500
+سبع مرات، سبع دورات، سبع دورات، يعني هذا الوليد
+
+75
+00:07:09,500 --> 00:07:13,930
+يموت فتنتقل روحه إلى وليد آخرثم إلى وليد آخر ثم
+
+76
+00:07:13,930 --> 00:07:18,210
+إلى وليد آخر سبع مرات وهذا ما يسمى النعيم حتى يصل
+
+77
+00:07:18,210 --> 00:07:22,590
+إلى ما يسمى عندهم ال Nirvana ال Nirvana بمعنى أيه؟
+
+78
+00:07:22,590 --> 00:07:26,790
+يعني العيش هناك مع الآلهة أو مع الملائكة في عالم
+
+79
+00:07:26,790 --> 00:07:31,960
+الملائكة في عالم النعيمأما هذا هو الجنة عندهم، هذا
+
+80
+00:07:31,960 --> 00:07:35,180
+هو مفهوم الجنة، لاحظوا، لكن على غير الوصف الذي جاء
+
+81
+00:07:35,180 --> 00:07:39,880
+في القرآن الكريم أما النار أو جهنم، أيضًا هم
+
+82
+00:07:39,880 --> 00:07:44,780
+يعتقدون أن الإنسان إن مات وكان شريرًا، فهو تنتقل
+
+83
+00:07:44,780 --> 00:07:50,260
+روحه إلى روح طفل أو وليد صغير، سبع مرات، سبع
+
+84
+00:07:50,260 --> 00:07:55,080
+دورات، فيتأذىسبع مرات في شقاء وفي تعب وفي شر
+
+85
+00:07:55,080 --> 00:08:00,660
+فيتأذى أذن شديدًا هكذا الجنة عندهم وهكذا النار
+
+86
+00:08:00,660 --> 00:08:05,080
+عندهم نجد مثل هذا الاعتقاد انتقل أيضًا إلى بعض
+
+87
+00:08:05,080 --> 00:08:10,080
+الفراق التي تنتسب إلى الإسلام وليست منه تنتسب إلى
+
+88
+00:08:10,080 --> 00:08:16,440
+الإسلام وليست منه مثل النصيرية العلويين فهؤلاء
+
+89
+00:08:16,440 --> 00:08:23,010
+يعتقدونيعتقدون أيضًا بتناسخ الأرواح وعندهم اعتقاد
+
+90
+00:08:23,010 --> 00:08:29,110
+أسوأ من اعتقاد الهنود عندهم يعني اعتقاد بأن الروح
+
+91
+00:08:29,110 --> 00:08:33,550
+تنتقل .. يمكن أن تنتقل إلى جماد ويمكن أن تنتقل إلى
+
+92
+00:08:33,550 --> 00:08:38,080
+حيوان ويمكن أن تنتقل إلى نباتويمكن أن تنتقل إلى
+
+93
+00:08:38,080 --> 00:08:42,560
+إنسان ويسمونه .. يسمونها على أربع مراتب النسخ
+
+94
+00:08:42,560 --> 00:08:47,720
+والرسخ والمسخ والفسخ هذا اعتقادهم اعتقاد .. وهذا
+
+95
+00:08:47,720 --> 00:08:51,800
+لعلكم يعني تأخذونه في مادة الفرق في التاريخ
+
+96
+00:08:51,800 --> 00:08:58,810
+الإسلامي عند الدروزالذين يعتقدون بألوهية الحاكم
+
+97
+00:08:58,810 --> 00:09:02,810
+بأمر الله الفاطمى هؤلاء أيضا عندهم ما يسمى عقيدة
+
+98
+00:09:02,810 --> 00:09:08,370
+التقمص التقمص يعتقدون أن هذه الروح لبست هذا القميص
+
+99
+00:09:08,370 --> 00:09:13,970
+اللي هو الجسد فلما بلي القميص استبلته الروح بقميص
+
+100
+00:09:13,970 --> 00:09:18,790
+آخر استبلته الروح بقميص آخر بمعنى أن الإنسان عندما
+
+101
+00:09:18,790 --> 00:09:23,270
+يولد عندما يموت الرجل عندما يموت تنتقل روحه إلى
+
+102
+00:09:23,270 --> 00:09:29,880
+وليد صغيرإلى وليد صغير، فإذا كانت المرأة تنتقل إلى
+
+103
+00:09:29,880 --> 00:09:34,300
+وليدة صغيرة، إلى بنت صغيرة، وها كذا، ولذلك عندهم
+
+104
+00:09:34,300 --> 00:09:38,400
+على اعتقادهم أن عدد العالم لا يزيد ولا ينقصعدد
+
+105
+00:09:38,400 --> 00:09:45,700
+العالم لا يزيد ولا ينقص وهذا يكذبه الواقع يسمى
+
+106
+00:09:45,700 --> 00:09:50,580
+عقيدة التقمص عند الدروز وهي عقيدة باطلة كما تراهم
+
+107
+00:09:50,580 --> 00:09:55,600
+على كل حال فالذين يؤمنون بالمعاد على غير الصفة
+
+108
+00:09:55,600 --> 00:10:00,200
+التي جاءت بها الشرائع السماوية هؤلاء فريق من الذين
+
+109
+00:10:00,200 --> 00:10:07,900
+يكذبون بالبعث لأنهم يعتقدون بمعادأو ببعث على غير
+
+110
+00:10:07,900 --> 00:10:12,100
+الصفة التي أخبر بها القرآن الكريم وأخبر بها نبينا
+
+111
+00:10:12,100 --> 00:10:16,040
+صلى الله عليه وسلم هناك فريق آخر إذا قلنا ما هي
+
+112
+00:10:16,040 --> 00:10:22,520
+مذاهب الناس في البعث ما هي مذاهب الناس في البعث
+
+113
+00:10:22,520 --> 00:10:27,000
+يبقى الفريق الرابع وهو فريق أهل السنة والجماعة
+
+114
+00:10:27,000 --> 00:10:32,730
+الذي يعتقد ويؤمن بالمعاد على الصفةوفق الصفة التي
+
+115
+00:10:32,730 --> 00:10:38,090
+جاءت بها الشرائع السماوية، أليس كذلك؟ نعم، نحن
+
+116
+00:10:38,090 --> 00:10:43,910
+نصدق بالبعث والنشور بحسب ما جاء في القرآن الكريم
+
+117
+00:10:43,910 --> 00:10:47,930
+وفي السنة النبوية، فإذا لو رجعنا إلى أول الصفحة،
+
+118
+00:10:47,930 --> 00:10:52,730
+مذاهب الناس في البعث أربع، لكن أصناف المكذبين
+
+119
+00:10:52,730 --> 00:11:02,720
+ثلاثة، مذاهب الناس في البعث أربع،نضيف إليهم أنفسنا
+
+120
+00:11:02,720 --> 00:11:07,920
+اللي هو مذهب أهل السنة والجماعة لكن أصناف المكذبين
+
+121
+00:11:07,920 --> 00:11:13,660
+هم ثلاثة أصناف نأتي إلى المطلب الثاني وهو أدلة
+
+122
+00:11:13,660 --> 00:11:20,470
+البعث والنشوط وهو مبحث عظيم وجدير بالاهتماموجدير
+
+123
+00:11:20,470 --> 00:11:25,430
+بالحديث فيه وإقامة الأدلة عليه فكم اعتنى القرآن
+
+124
+00:11:25,430 --> 00:11:29,250
+الكريم بهذا الأمر سواء القرآن المكي أو المدني
+
+125
+00:11:29,250 --> 00:11:35,590
+القرآن المكي تحديدا اعتنى بثلاثة مسائل هذه واحدة
+
+126
+00:11:35,590 --> 00:11:40,610
+منها اعتنى باثبات وحدانية الله تبارك وتعالى
+
+127
+00:11:40,610 --> 00:11:45,210
+والمسألة الثانية اثبات صدق النبي صلى الله عليه
+
+128
+00:11:45,210 --> 00:11:50,780
+وسلم في دعواه النبوةوالمسألة الثالثة إثبات البعث
+
+129
+00:11:50,780 --> 00:11:58,240
+وهو موضوعنا، وهو موضوعنا، فكم ناقش القرآن الكريم،
+
+130
+00:11:58,240 --> 00:12:03,000
+القرآن المكي تحديدا، المكي منه تحديدا، كم ناقش
+
+131
+00:12:03,000 --> 00:12:11,480
+يعني شبهات؟شبهات ومعتقدات الدهريين او اهل مكة
+
+132
+00:12:11,480 --> 00:12:17,200
+مشركي مكة في اعتقادهم الباطل في البعث والنشور فهم
+
+133
+00:12:17,200 --> 00:12:22,520
+ينكرونه اشد الانكار هم ينكرونه اشد الانكار وهم
+
+134
+00:12:22,520 --> 00:12:28,580
+حقيقة في انكارهم لليوم الآخر لا يملكون دليلا يعني
+
+135
+00:12:28,580 --> 00:12:34,560
+لو سألناالمنكرون للبعث قديما وحديثا القدماء منهم
+
+136
+00:12:34,560 --> 00:12:41,220
+والمعاصرين لو سألهم ما أدلتكم على إنكار البعث
+
+137
+00:12:41,220 --> 00:12:46,200
+والنشور لا نجد عندهم إلا الاستبعاد والاستضام
+
+138
+00:12:46,200 --> 00:12:48,820
+والاستهجان
+
+139
+00:12:51,290 --> 00:12:56,570
+والاندهاش، ليس لهم أدلة، هذه ليست أدلة، ليست أدلة،
+
+140
+00:12:56,570 --> 00:13:02,250
+يعني مثلا أذا ميتنا وكنا ترابا، ذلك رجع بعيد، فهذا
+
+141
+00:13:02,250 --> 00:13:08,060
+أمر مستبعد بعد ما ميتناوأصبحنا ترابا واختلطت هذه
+
+142
+00:13:08,060 --> 00:13:12,940
+الجثث، هذه الأجساد ومر عليها ألف السنين، اختلطت
+
+143
+00:13:12,940 --> 00:13:17,100
+بالتراب، بتراب الأرض ومرت عليها الدهور والسنون، هل
+
+144
+00:13:17,100 --> 00:13:22,580
+يعقل؟ هل يمكن أن تعاد هذه الأرواح كما يخبر القرآن
+
+145
+00:13:22,580 --> 00:13:26,100
+الكريم وكما يخبر النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم، فيقوم
+
+146
+00:13:26,100 --> 00:13:30,640
+الناس من قبورهم؟ينفضون التراب عن رؤوسهم ويقومون
+
+147
+00:13:30,640 --> 00:13:34,500
+كما يقبل القرأن الكريم للحساب أمام الله تبارك
+
+148
+00:13:34,500 --> 00:13:38,610
+وتعالى في المحاكمة العادلةهكذا هم يستبعدون
+
+149
+00:13:38,610 --> 00:13:44,990
+ويستعظمون أن يكون .. أن يكون هناك يوم آخر يحاسب
+
+150
+00:13:44,990 --> 00:13:51,010
+فيه أن ناسهم يستعظمون ذلك وحقيقة هم يفعلون ذلك
+
+151
+00:13:51,010 --> 00:13:56,130
+لأنهم يحكمون عقولهم في هذا الأمر ولا يقبلون بالوحي
+
+152
+00:13:56,130 --> 00:14:01,070
+الذي أنزله الله تبارك وتعالى ونحن بفضل الله عزوجل
+
+153
+00:14:01,070 --> 00:14:09,000
+ومنتهي في جعبتنا أدلة متنوعة متعددةكثيرة على إثبات
+
+154
+00:14:09,000 --> 00:14:14,900
+البعث والنشور ليس واحدا منها هناك أدلة حسية على
+
+155
+00:14:14,900 --> 00:14:19,860
+البعث والنشور وهناك أدلة عقلية وهناك أدلة نقلية
+
+156
+00:14:19,860 --> 00:14:26,820
+وسنتطوف معا إن شاء الله تعالى في هذه الأدلة واحدة
+
+157
+00:14:26,820 --> 00:14:32,580
+تلو الأخرى نشرحها ونبيّنها ونفصلها ونثبت من خلال
+
+158
+00:14:32,580 --> 00:14:39,770
+كل دليل على انفراد أنهأن اليوم الآخر كائن لا محالة
+
+159
+00:14:39,770 --> 00:14:44,910
+أنه سيحصل كما أخبر الله تبارك وتعالى، كما قال
+
+160
+00:14:44,910 --> 00:14:50,620
+تبارك وتعالى، إن الدين لواقعإن الساعة آتية أكاد
+
+161
+00:14:50,620 --> 00:14:55,500
+أخفيها كما أخبر ربنا تبارك وتعالى اقتربت الساعة
+
+162
+00:14:55,500 --> 00:15:00,100
+وانشق القمر إلى آخره من النصوص فالأدلة كثيرة
+
+163
+00:15:00,100 --> 00:15:06,360
+سنتناولها ان شاء الله واحدا واحدا وهذه الأدلة قبل
+
+164
+00:15:06,360 --> 00:15:12,420
+أن أبدأ فيها لعل بعضها يصلح للمؤمنين وحدهم لعل
+
+165
+00:15:12,420 --> 00:15:19,130
+المنكر الملحد المادى لا يقبل ببعضهالا يقبل ببعضها
+
+166
+00:15:19,130 --> 00:15:25,310
+لكن بعضها يصلح للمؤمنين وانا سأشير الى الناقلي
+
+167
+00:15:25,310 --> 00:15:29,930
+منها والذي يصلح للمؤمنين فحسب ثم الى العقلي منها
+
+168
+00:15:29,930 --> 00:15:34,070
+والذي يمكن أن يصلح لكافة الناس للمؤمنين وغيرهم من
+
+169
+00:15:34,070 --> 00:15:37,690
+الناس فالعقل الأحكام العقلية قاسم مشترك بين
+
+170
+00:15:37,690 --> 00:15:43,960
+العقلاء لا ينكره إلا إنسان متغطرسمنكر للحقيقة
+
+171
+00:15:43,960 --> 00:15:49,560
+يتعامى عن الشمس في وضع النهار سنتحدث في هذه الأدلة
+
+172
+00:15:49,560 --> 00:15:54,440
+من أول هذه الأدلة إخبار العليم الخبير بوقوع
+
+173
+00:15:54,440 --> 00:16:00,380
+القيامة هذا دليل يقينى عندنا وهو من هو أقوى الأدلة
+
+174
+00:16:00,380 --> 00:16:05,210
+لأقول من أقوى الأدلة بل هو أقوى الأدلةفإخبار
+
+175
+00:16:05,210 --> 00:16:11,550
+العليم الخبير الله تبارك وتعالى عندما يخبرنا بأن
+
+176
+00:16:11,550 --> 00:16:17,010
+يوم القيامة حاصل سيكون هذا أقوى الأدلة عندنا لأنه
+
+177
+00:16:17,010 --> 00:16:21,750
+عندنا لأننا نعتقد أنه لا يوجد من هو أصدق من الله
+
+178
+00:16:21,750 --> 00:16:27,060
+عز وجلومن أصدقوا من الله قيلة ومن أصدقوا من الله
+
+179
+00:16:27,060 --> 00:16:30,960
+حديثة وقد أخبر العليم الخبير أخبر الله تبارك
+
+180
+00:16:30,960 --> 00:16:35,600
+وتعالى بهذا اليوم أخبر بالبعث والنشور والجزاء
+
+181
+00:16:35,600 --> 00:16:41,260
+والحساب والجنة والناروقد نوع الأساليب في الإخبار
+
+182
+00:16:41,260 --> 00:16:46,420
+أخبر الله عز وجل عن اليوم الآخر في صور متعددة منها
+
+183
+00:16:46,420 --> 00:16:52,060
+مثلا إن الساعة آتية أكاد أخفيها أحيانا يقسم ربنا
+
+184
+00:16:52,060 --> 00:16:57,860
+تبارك وتعالى فيقول الله لا إله إلا هو ليجمعنكم إلى
+
+185
+00:16:57,860 --> 00:17:04,100
+يوم القيامة ثم يؤكد لا ريب فيه وأحيانا يخبر أنه
+
+186
+00:17:04,100 --> 00:17:10,490
+وعد صادقوقبر لازم كما في قوله تعالى إن في ذلك لآية
+
+187
+00:17:10,490 --> 00:17:16,010
+لمن خاف عذاب الآخرة ذلك يوم المجموع الله الناس
+
+188
+00:17:16,010 --> 00:17:22,030
+وذلك يوم المشهود هذه أدلة نأخذها على سبيل اليقين
+
+189
+00:17:22,870 --> 00:17:27,550
+على سبيل اليقين، فالله تبارك وتعالى أخبر، أخبر
+
+190
+00:17:27,550 --> 00:17:30,770
+سبحانه وتعالى، في بعض الأحيان يخبر عن مجيئه
+
+191
+00:17:30,770 --> 00:17:36,670
+واقترابه، أتى أمر الله فلا تستعجلوا، اقتربت الساعة
+
+192
+00:17:36,670 --> 00:17:41,170
+وانشق القمرإلى آخرى، حتى الحديث عن الجنة وعن النار
+
+193
+00:17:41,170 --> 00:17:45,870
+وإخبار عن اليوم الآخر وما سيكون فيه من العذاب
+
+194
+00:17:45,870 --> 00:17:51,930
+للكافرين المكذبين أو من النعيم للموحدين المؤمنين،
+
+195
+00:17:51,930 --> 00:17:55,750
+كل هذا إخبار العليم الخبيرإخبار العلم الخبير قد
+
+196
+00:17:55,750 --> 00:18:05,290
+يقول قائل هذا الدليل لا يصلح ولا يصدق به المنكرين
+
+197
+00:18:05,290 --> 00:18:10,770
+ممن يستخدمون عقولهم فهذا يصلح فقط للمؤمنين نقول
+
+198
+00:18:10,770 --> 00:18:20,350
+هناك أدلة أخرى يعني تليق بهموتوقف دهمهم وتشبع
+
+199
+00:18:20,350 --> 00:18:28,950
+رغبتهم من الأدلة بل وتثبت الحق وهو ما نؤكده من أن
+
+200
+00:18:28,950 --> 00:18:33,330
+اليوم الآخر كائن لا محالة نأتي إلى الدليل الثاني
+
+201
+00:18:33,330 --> 00:18:39,790
+الاستدلال على البعث بمن أماتهم الله ثم أحياهم كما
+
+202
+00:18:39,790 --> 00:18:43,950
+أخبر الله تبارك وتعالىففي الدنيا في هذه الحياة
+
+203
+00:18:43,950 --> 00:18:49,890
+الدنيا أخبر الله تبارك وتعالى عنق
+
+204
+00:18:49,890 --> 00:18:54,890
+ناس ماتوا ثم عادوا إلى الحياة أعادهم الله تبارك
+
+205
+00:18:54,890 --> 00:18:58,830
+وتعالى إلى الحياة والذي أعاد هؤلاء إلى الحياة قادر
+
+206
+00:18:58,830 --> 00:19:02,910
+على أن يعيد الناس عندما يموت متى يشاء سبحانه
+
+207
+00:19:02,910 --> 00:19:09,210
+وتعالى إلى الحياة في سورة البقرة لوحدها خمسة أمثل
+
+208
+00:19:09,210 --> 00:19:15,500
+على ذلك في سورة البقرةقوم موسى مثلا حين قالوا له
+
+209
+00:19:15,500 --> 00:19:20,740
+لن نؤمن لك حتى نرى الله جهرة وهؤلاء الصفوة كانوا
+
+210
+00:19:20,740 --> 00:19:25,720
+سبعون رجلا من بني إسرائيل ذهبوا لميقات الله مع
+
+211
+00:19:25,720 --> 00:19:30,500
+موسى عليه السلام وهناك
+
+212
+00:19:30,500 --> 00:19:37,140
+قالوا لموسى لن نؤمن لك حتى نرى الله جهرة هكذا
+
+213
+00:19:37,140 --> 00:19:42,930
+يطلبون من النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم من موسى انيريهم
+
+214
+00:19:42,930 --> 00:19:48,250
+الله عز وجل نفسه عيناً فيخبر المولى تبارك وتعالى
+
+215
+00:19:48,250 --> 00:19:54,390
+فأخذتكم الصارقة وانتم تنظرون ثم يعني ماتوا ثم
+
+216
+00:19:54,390 --> 00:20:02,830
+بعثناكم من بعد موتكم من بعد موتكم لعلكم تشكرون هذا
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+217
+00:20:02,830 --> 00:20:08,410
+مثال هذا مثال فمن شهد هذا الأمر هل يستطيع ان يكذبه
+
+218
+00:20:08,410 --> 00:20:13,840
+هؤلاء السبعون مثلابعد اقرأوا ما رأوا ان الله امدهم
+
+219
+00:20:13,840 --> 00:20:18,920
+ثم احياهم ثم احياهم هل يستطيع الواحد منهم ان يكذب
+
+220
+00:20:18,920 --> 00:20:24,100
+بذلك ثم اهل الكتاب اليهود والنصارى هم هذا وارد
+
+221
+00:20:24,100 --> 00:20:31,080
+عندهم في كتبهم فهذا دليل قوي من اقوى الأدلة على ان
+
+222
+00:20:31,080 --> 00:20:38,020
+البعث كائن لا محالة قصة قتيل بني اسرائيل القتيل
+
+223
+00:20:38,020 --> 00:20:39,540
+الذي
+
+224
+00:20:41,080 --> 00:20:46,800
+قُتل من بني إسرائيل ولم يعرف من هو قاتله ولم يعرف
+
+225
+00:20:46,800 --> 00:20:54,560
+من هو قاتله كان رجلا ثريا غنيا فقتله ابن أخيه ثم
+
+226
+00:20:54,560 --> 00:21:02,440
+حمل جثته وألقى بها قريبا من قرية أخرى فتكون التهمة
+
+227
+00:21:02,440 --> 00:21:07,940
+لهذه القرية المجاورة فلجوا
+
+228
+00:21:07,940 --> 00:21:14,540
+إلى موسى عليه السلاملجوا إلى موسى ليعرفهم على
+
+229
+00:21:14,540 --> 00:21:22,000
+القتيل فامراه الله تبارك وتعالى أن يطلب من قومه أن
+
+230
+00:21:22,000 --> 00:21:28,160
+يذبحوا بقرة وذبحوها بعد جدل معروف في قصة البقرة في
+
+231
+00:21:28,160 --> 00:21:29,980
+هذه الصورة الكريمة
+
+232
+00:21:32,560 --> 00:21:38,040
+أمرهم الله تبارك وتعالى أن يضربوه ببعضها، لاحظ
+
+233
+00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:44,860
+الشاهد، وإذ قتلتم نفسا فادارأتم فيها، قتلتم نفسا
+
+234
+00:21:44,860 --> 00:21:49,480
+ولم يُعرف من هو القاتل، وادارأتم فيها، وكان كل
+
+235
+00:21:49,480 --> 00:21:52,700
+واحد منكم يدفع عن نفسه التهمة
+
+236
+00:21:55,150 --> 00:22:02,150
+يدفع نفسه التهمة فادارأتم فيها
+
+237
+00:22:02,150 --> 00:22:09,270
+والله مخرج ما كنتم تكتمون الله عز وجل كاشف للحقيقة
+
+238
+00:22:09,270 --> 00:22:15,810
+يعرف سبحانه وتعالى ويعلم من الذي قتل والله عز وجل
+
+239
+00:22:15,810 --> 00:22:21,670
+يكشف ما تكتمونيكشف ما تكتمون فقلنا ضربوه ببعضها
+
+240
+00:22:21,670 --> 00:22:25,910
+خذوا بعضا اي شيء من هذه البقرة واضربوه بها اضربوا
+
+241
+00:22:25,910 --> 00:22:31,450
+هذا الميت قال تعالى كذلك يحيي الله الموتى فقام
+
+242
+00:22:31,450 --> 00:22:37,830
+الرجل متهللا قال قاتلي هو ابن أخيقاتلي هو ابن أخي
+
+243
+00:22:37,830 --> 00:22:42,490
+كان قد استعجل التركة فالرجل الثري هذا لم تكن له
+
+244
+00:22:42,490 --> 00:22:47,590
+ذرية وكان يريد الخلاص منه لإيه؟ ليستأثر بالتركة
+
+245
+00:22:47,590 --> 00:22:55,330
+لوحده مستعجلا للتركة من استعجل شيئا قبل أوانه عقب
+
+246
+00:22:55,330 --> 00:23:01,870
+بحرمانه كذلك يحيي الله الموت ويريكم آياته لعلكم
+
+247
+00:23:01,870 --> 00:23:08,440
+تعقلون قصة أخرى أيضا في سورة البقرةفي القوم الذين
+
+248
+00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:14,980
+خرجوا من ديارهم انترارا من الموت وهم ألوف فأماتهم
+
+249
+00:23:14,980 --> 00:23:22,380
+الله تعالى ثم أحياهم ألوف ألوف جاء في الألوف في
+
+250
+00:23:22,380 --> 00:23:27,160
+عددهم ثلاثة آلاف أربعة آلاف عشرة آلاف أربعين ألف
+
+251
+00:23:27,160 --> 00:23:34,020
+سبعون ألف الأقوال عديدة لعل الأرجح أنها أكثر من
+
+252
+00:23:34,020 --> 00:23:39,790
+عشرة آلافأكثر من عشرة ألف. يحدثنا الله تبارك
+
+253
+00:23:39,790 --> 00:23:45,810
+وتعالى عن هؤلاء. خرجوا لماذا؟ خرجوا فرارا من مرض
+
+254
+00:23:45,810 --> 00:23:55,350
+الطعون ام خرجوا فرارا من لقيا العدو. فرارا من لقيا
+
+255
+00:23:55,350 --> 00:24:00,370
+العدو. العبرة بعموم اللفظة بخصوص السبب.الله عز وجل
+
+256
+00:24:00,370 --> 00:24:05,050
+يحدثنا أن الله يا أولاه أماتهم ألم تر إلى الذين
+
+257
+00:24:05,050 --> 00:24:12,910
+خرجوا من ديارهم وهم ألوف حذر الموت فقال لهم الله
+
+258
+00:24:12,910 --> 00:24:21,950
+موتوا الذي هم خائفون منه وقعوا فيه هم خرجوا حذر
+
+259
+00:24:21,950 --> 00:24:28,420
+الموت خوفا من الموتبأمر من الله، إرادة الله نافذة
+
+260
+00:24:28,420 --> 00:24:35,600
+في خلقه، فقال لهم الله موتوا، ماتوا، ثم أحياهم،
+
+261
+00:24:35,600 --> 00:24:39,880
+وهنا الشاهد إن الله لده فضل على الناس، ولكن أكثر
+
+262
+00:24:39,880 --> 00:24:45,020
+الناس لا يشكرون، ألوف، نؤمن بذلك، وأهل الكتاب
+
+263
+00:24:45,020 --> 00:24:50,900
+يؤمنون بذلك، هذا دليل من الأدلة القوية، أحياء الله
+
+264
+00:24:50,900 --> 00:24:57,260
+الموت في هذه الحياة الدنياأيضًا في سورة البقرة قصة
+
+265
+00:24:57,260 --> 00:25:02,200
+عزير هذا الرجل الذي مر على قرية والراجح عند
+
+266
+00:25:02,200 --> 00:25:08,840
+المفسرين أن القرية هي بيت المقدس حدثنا الله تبارك
+
+267
+00:25:08,840 --> 00:25:13,680
+وتعالى عنه أو كالذي مر على قرية وهي قاوية على
+
+268
+00:25:13,680 --> 00:25:22,260
+عروشها قال أن يحيي هذه الله بعد موتها أن كيف؟
+
+269
+00:25:22,630 --> 00:25:28,190
+كيف؟ كيف يحيي الله هذه بعد موتها؟ فالله عز وجل
+
+270
+00:25:28,190 --> 00:25:35,810
+علمه بدرس عملي حصل معه فاماته الله مائة عام ثم
+
+271
+00:25:35,810 --> 00:25:42,850
+بعثه اماته ثم بعثه قال كم لبست؟ قال لبست يوما أو
+
+272
+00:25:42,850 --> 00:25:50,660
+بعض يوم قال بل لبست مائة عامفانظر إلى طعامك وشرابك
+
+273
+00:25:50,660 --> 00:25:56,200
+لم يتسنى وانظر الأمر الذي استبعته وتساءلت عنه
+
+274
+00:25:56,200 --> 00:26:03,880
+مستغربا أن يحيي هذه الله بعد موتها أن كيف الله عز
+
+275
+00:26:03,880 --> 00:26:10,320
+وجل يبيّن له وانظر إلى حمارك ولنجعلك آية للناس
+
+276
+00:26:10,320 --> 00:26:15,880
+وانظر إلى العظام كيف ننشزها نركبها
+
+277
+00:26:16,510 --> 00:26:22,450
+ثم نكسوها لحمة ركب العظام ثم نكسوها لحمة فلمّا
+
+278
+00:26:22,450 --> 00:26:31,390
+تبين له لما تبين له قال أعلم هنا كلمة أعلم بمعنى
+
+279
+00:26:31,390 --> 00:26:41,090
+أعتقد قال أعلم أعتقد أن الله على كل شيء قدر لاحظي
+
+280
+00:26:41,090 --> 00:26:46,840
+عقب الآية أو نهاية الآيةتتكلم عن صفة القدرة لله
+
+281
+00:26:46,840 --> 00:26:52,420
+تبارك وتعالى الشاملة لكل شيء إن الله على كل شيء
+
+282
+00:26:52,420 --> 00:26:57,980
+على كل شيء قدير هذه قدرة الله تبارك وتعالى النافذة
+
+283
+00:26:57,980 --> 00:27:02,600
+الشاملة لا يعجزه شيء سبحانه وتعالى في الأرض ولا في
+
+284
+00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:07,240
+السماء فهذا دليل قوي وهذا الأمر أيضا يعتقد به أهل
+
+285
+00:27:07,240 --> 00:27:11,990
+الكتاب اليهود والنصارىالقصة الخامسة وأيضا هي في
+
+286
+00:27:11,990 --> 00:27:17,710
+سورة البقرة قصة إبراهيم الخليل عليه وعلى نبينا
+
+287
+00:27:17,710 --> 00:27:22,990
+أفضل الصلاة والتسليم سأل ربه أن يريه كيف يحيي
+
+288
+00:27:22,990 --> 00:27:28,650
+الموت فأمره الله تبارك وتعالى أن يذبح أربع من
+
+289
+00:27:28,650 --> 00:27:34,630
+الطير ويفرقهن أجزاء على الجبال التي حوله ثم
+
+290
+00:27:34,630 --> 00:27:42,390
+يناديهن ثم يناديهنففعل عليه الصلاة والسلام قال
+
+291
+00:27:42,390 --> 00:27:46,290
+تعالى واذ قال إبراهيم ربي أرني كيف تحيي الموتة
+
+292
+00:27:46,290 --> 00:27:52,850
+وهنا يجب أن أشير إلى أن إبراهيم عليه السلام يعتقد
+
+293
+00:27:52,850 --> 00:27:59,230
+بأن الله يحيي الموتة ولكنه يطلب من الله عز وجل أن
+
+294
+00:27:59,230 --> 00:28:05,330
+يريه كيف يحيي الموتةفهو يريد أن يرقى من درجة
+
+295
+00:28:05,330 --> 00:28:11,730
+اليقين إلى درجة عين اليقين لا يجوز ولا يليق أن
+
+296
+00:28:11,730 --> 00:28:15,250
+نعتقد أن إبراهيم عليه السلام لا يعتقد بأن الله
+
+297
+00:28:15,250 --> 00:28:21,850
+يحيي الموتة إبراهيم يعتقد بذلك لكنه يريد من الله
+
+298
+00:28:21,850 --> 00:28:29,020
+ويطلب منه أن يريه كيفية إحياءه للموتةواذ قال
+
+299
+00:28:29,020 --> 00:28:35,240
+ابراهيم ربي أرني كيف تحيي الموتى؟ قال أه ولم تؤمن؟
+
+300
+00:28:35,240 --> 00:28:41,920
+قال بلى ولكن ليطمئن قلبي فأمره الله تبارك وتعالى
+
+301
+00:28:41,920 --> 00:28:48,580
+قال فخذ أربعة من الطير فسرهن إليك دطعهم اخلطهم في
+
+302
+00:28:48,580 --> 00:28:54,400
+بعض ريشهم وعظمهم ونحمهم ودمهم ووزهها على رؤوس
+
+303
+00:28:54,400 --> 00:29:01,220
+الجبالثم اجعل على كل جبل منهن جزء، ثم ادعوهن، ثم
+
+304
+00:29:01,220 --> 00:29:07,080
+ادعوهن، يأتينا كساية، سترى حينها كيف ان الله عز
+
+305
+00:29:07,080 --> 00:29:13,760
+وجل يحيي الموتى، واعلم ان الله عزيزه حكيم، اذا هذه
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+306
+00:29:13,760 --> 00:29:20,280
+قصص خمسة، احياء الله الموتى في الدنيا، بالتأكيد
+
+307
+00:29:20,280 --> 00:29:26,370
+الطيور عندما ذبحت ماتت،أليس كذلك؟ ثم ايه؟ أحياه
+
+308
+00:29:26,370 --> 00:29:33,770
+الله تبارك وتعالى أي نعم بل إن القرآن الكريم وحتى
+
+309
+00:29:33,770 --> 00:29:41,770
+الكتب المحرفة عند أهل الكتاب تخبر أن عيسى عليه
+
+310
+00:29:41,770 --> 00:29:50,540
+السلام كان من معجزاته إحياء الموتةإحياء الموتى
+
+311
+00:29:50,540 --> 00:29:54,700
+وهذه إحدى المعجزات لسيدنا عيسى عليه السلام الثابت
+
+312
+00:29:54,700 --> 00:30:00,620
+له في القرأن الكريم وأحيي الموتى بإذن الله وأحيي
+
+313
+00:30:00,620 --> 00:30:08,140
+الموتى بإذن الله فهذه أدلة حسية أدلة حسية على
+
+314
+00:30:08,140 --> 00:30:15,620
+إحياء الله عز وجل للموتة الدليل الثالث على إحياء
+
+315
+00:30:15,620 --> 00:30:22,380
+الله عز وجل للأمواتيوم القيامة وبعثهم من قبورهم
+
+316
+00:30:22,380 --> 00:30:31,260
+الدليل الثالث والرابع والخامس الثالث والرابع
+
+317
+00:30:31,260 --> 00:30:39,440
+والخامس سنستخرجها من أواخر سورة ياسين من قوله
+
+318
+00:30:39,440 --> 00:30:46,380
+تعالى أولم يرى الإنسان أن خلقناه من نطفة فإذا هو
+
+319
+00:30:46,380 --> 00:30:52,630
+قصيم مبينوضرب لنا مثله ونسي خلقه قال من يحيي
+
+320
+00:30:52,630 --> 00:30:58,790
+العظام وهي رميم قل يحييها الذي أنشاها أول مرة وهو
+
+321
+00:30:58,790 --> 00:31:06,710
+بكل خلق عليم إلى آخر الآيات هذه الآيات يعني مليئة
+
+322
+00:31:06,710 --> 00:31:11,590
+بالأدلة على البعث والنشور تتحدث عن هذا الموضوع
+
+323
+00:31:11,590 --> 00:31:19,130
+بشكل خاص هذا نموذجهذا نموذج وسبب نزول هذه الآيات
+
+324
+00:31:19,130 --> 00:31:25,590
+قبل أن أتحدث فيها سبب نزول هذه الآيات قبل أن أتحدث
+
+325
+00:31:25,590 --> 00:31:33,030
+فيها ورد أن أبي بن خلف عليهم من الله ما يستحق أبي
+
+326
+00:31:33,030 --> 00:31:38,390
+بن خلف جاء إلى النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم وفي يده
+
+327
+00:31:38,390 --> 00:31:45,750
+عظمرميم وهو يفته ويذروه في الهواء يعني ذهب إلى
+
+328
+00:31:45,750 --> 00:31:51,230
+الصحراء إلى البرية كده وجاء بيضام بالية ديبانة
+
+329
+00:31:51,230 --> 00:31:58,230
+خالص لها ايه سنين سنون وسنون مضى عليها من العمر
+
+330
+00:31:58,230 --> 00:32:04,770
+وباليت أصبحت ايه مهترقة تماما ضعيفة ضعيفة البنيا
+
+331
+00:32:04,770 --> 00:32:09,230
+فاخد يفتها وقال للنبي صلى الله عليه وسلم يا محمد
+
+332
+00:32:09,840 --> 00:32:15,060
+عليه الصلاة والسلام. اتزعم ان الله يبعث هذه اتبع
+
+333
+00:32:15,060 --> 00:32:18,860
+اتزعم ان الله يبعث هذا فقال النبي صلى الله عليه
+
+334
+00:32:18,860 --> 00:32:25,500
+وسلم نعم يميتك الله تعالى ثم يبعثك ثم يحشرك الى
+
+335
+00:32:25,500 --> 00:32:32,440
+النار فكانت هذه الحادثة سبب نزول هذه الآيات وعن
+
+336
+00:32:32,440 --> 00:32:37,320
+ابن عباس ايضا ان الذي ذهب للنبي صلى الله عليه وسلم
+
+337
+00:32:37,320 --> 00:32:43,760
+رجل يسمى العاص بنوائلأخذ عظمًا من البطحاق من
+
+338
+00:32:43,760 --> 00:32:51,840
+البرية يعني المقبرةففته بيده أيضًا ذهب للنبي ووقف
+
+339
+00:32:51,840 --> 00:32:56,000
+على حلقة النبي وهو يعطي مثلًا درسًا للصحابة الكرام
+
+340
+00:32:56,000 --> 00:33:03,220
+ثم قال للنبي يا محمد أيحي هذه الله بعد ما تراه زي
+
+341
+00:33:03,220 --> 00:33:07,900
+ما انت شايف كده ديبان كده و مهترع فقال رسول الله
+
+342
+00:33:07,900 --> 00:33:13,480
+صلى الله عليه وسلم نعم يميتك الله ثم يحيك ثم يدخلك
+
+343
+00:33:13,480 --> 00:33:19,020
+جهنمفنزلت هذه الآيات والعبرة بعموم اللفظ لأ بخصوص
+
+344
+00:33:19,020 --> 00:33:23,300
+السبب كما قال الأصوليون كما قال العلماء فليس مهما
+
+345
+00:33:23,300 --> 00:33:29,440
+أن يكون أبي بن خلف أو العاصب نوائل المهم أن سبب
+
+346
+00:33:29,440 --> 00:33:34,440
+نزول هذه الآية أو أن هذه الآيات ترد على هؤلاء وعلى
+
+347
+00:33:34,440 --> 00:33:40,660
+من شاكلهم من الناس كل منكر للبعث والنشور هذه
+
+348
+00:33:40,660 --> 00:33:46,100
+الآيات فيها رد على أمثال هؤلاءولذلك الأيات بدأت
+
+349
+00:33:46,100 --> 00:33:51,960
+بقوله تعالى أولم يرى الإنسان وبي بن خلف العاصب
+
+350
+00:33:51,960 --> 00:33:59,140
+نوائل من شاكلهم من هؤلاء المنكرين الجاحدين للبعث
+
+351
+00:33:59,140 --> 00:34:05,140
+والنشور أولم يرى الإنسان وبالتأكيد يرى هنا ليس
+
+352
+00:34:05,140 --> 00:34:09,840
+المقصود به الرؤية البصرية بل الرؤية الذهنية
+
+353
+00:34:09,840 --> 00:34:15,950
+العقلية أولم يرى الإنسانأو لم يرى الإنسان؟ وتحتمل
+
+354
+00:34:15,950 --> 00:34:22,470
+الآية أن تكون الرؤية بالبصر أو لم يرى الإنسان أنه
+
+355
+00:34:22,470 --> 00:34:29,690
+خلقناه، فنحن نرى كيفية الخلق، نرى أن الله يخلقيخلق
+
+356
+00:34:29,690 --> 00:34:36,670
+الكائنات، يخلق العصافير، يخلق الدجاج، يخلق الناس،
+
+357
+00:34:36,670 --> 00:34:41,530
+أبناءنا وبناتنا، أولم يرى الإنسان أنه خلقناه،
+
+358
+00:34:41,530 --> 00:34:47,130
+خلقناه من أي شيء، في الأصل، من نطفة، من نطفة، هذه
+
+359
+00:34:47,130 --> 00:34:51,850
+النطفة التي تخرج من الرجل البسيطة، الحقيرة،
+
+360
+00:34:51,850 --> 00:34:58,010
+المنتنة، منتنة الرائحة، كريهة الرائحة،هذا هو أصل
+
+361
+00:34:58,010 --> 00:35:03,670
+كل واحد من أولم يرى الإنسان أن خلقناه من نطفة بعد
+
+362
+00:35:03,670 --> 00:35:10,250
+ذلك فإذا هو خصيم مبين يتشدق بالكلامو يذهب يقول
+
+363
+00:35:10,250 --> 00:35:16,230
+لأصحابه لأذهبنا إلى محمد فأخصمنا يعني أفهموا هذا
+
+364
+00:35:16,230 --> 00:35:20,930
+ما كان من هؤلاء المشركين ذهبوا إلى نواديهم فقالوا
+
+365
+00:35:20,930 --> 00:35:27,690
+لمن يناصرونهم لأذهبنا إلى محمد فأخصمنا جاء الواحد
+
+366
+00:35:27,690 --> 00:35:33,680
+منهم يخاصمنا في الحق لأذهبنا إلى محمد فأخصمنابمعنى
+
+367
+00:35:33,680 --> 00:35:38,840
+انه ايه؟ لأفهمه يعني فإذا هو خصيم مبين وضرب لنا
+
+368
+00:35:38,840 --> 00:35:46,320
+مثلا قال الإنسان يتوقع بعد قوله تعالى قال قد يأتي
+
+369
+00:35:46,320 --> 00:35:51,610
+بدليلفإذا به يأتي باستعجاب واستغراب قال ما يحيي
+
+370
+00:35:51,610 --> 00:35:58,090
+العظام و هي رميم فهو مستبعد مستهجن مستغرب ما يحيي
+
+371
+00:35:58,090 --> 00:36:03,530
+العظام و هي رميم فيأتي الدليل و يأتي الرد الساحق
+
+372
+00:36:03,530 --> 00:36:11,350
+قل يحييها الذي أنشأها أول مرة ولذلك جعلنا العنوان
+
+373
+00:36:11,350 --> 00:36:18,300
+بهذه الطريقة الاستدلال على النشأة الأخرىبالنشأة
+
+374
+00:36:18,300 --> 00:36:22,420
+الأولى الاستدلال على النشأة الأخرى وهو البعث
+
+375
+00:36:22,420 --> 00:36:30,420
+بالنشأة الأولى قل يحييها الذي أنشأها أول مرة فالذي
+
+376
+00:36:30,420 --> 00:36:34,900
+أنشأها أول مرة قادر على أن ينشئها المرة الثانية
+
+377
+00:36:34,900 --> 00:36:42,850
+وهذا دليل عقلي هنا لوأم عن النظر والفكر سنجد أنه
+
+378
+00:36:42,850 --> 00:36:47,310
+يصلح لهؤلاء المنكرين والذين يستعملون عقولهم لو
+
+379
+00:36:47,310 --> 00:36:52,150
+أرادوا إنصافا لو أرادوا الحقيقة يجب أن تذعن عقولهم
+
+380
+00:36:52,150 --> 00:37:00,850
+لمثل هذا ال delay فعند كل عاقل النشأة الأولى أصعب
+
+381
+00:37:00,850 --> 00:37:06,400
+من النشأة الثانيةعند كل عاقل عند كل عاقل عندما
+
+382
+00:37:06,400 --> 00:37:10,640
+يصنع الإنسان شيئا ولله عز وجل المثل الأعلى عندما
+
+383
+00:37:10,640 --> 00:37:16,000
+يصنع طاولة الطاولة الأولى يكون فيها مشقة وتعرف
+
+384
+00:37:16,000 --> 00:37:22,140
+تخطيط وتدبر وتفكير وتأمل كيف أصنع هذه الطاولة تكون
+
+385
+00:37:22,140 --> 00:37:26,500
+الطاولة الثانية أسهل من الأولى ولله عز وجل المثل
+
+386
+00:37:26,500 --> 00:37:31,910
+الأعلى فلا يوجد في حقه سبحانه وتعالى سهل وصعبقل
+
+387
+00:37:31,910 --> 00:37:39,190
+يحييها الذي أنشأها أول مرة أول مرة وهو بكل خلق
+
+388
+00:37:39,190 --> 00:37:47,710
+عليم فهذا نهاية الآية تشير إلى أن بعض الناس يقول
+
+389
+00:37:47,710 --> 00:37:53,910
+كيف سيعيدها وقد اختلط هذا العظم و هذا الجسد بهذا
+
+390
+00:37:53,910 --> 00:38:00,860
+الأرض الآية تطمئنناتطمئننا فالله عز وجل بكل خلق
+
+391
+00:38:00,860 --> 00:38:09,280
+بكل خلق عليم ماذا نقول في إنسان قطعت بطرت قدمه في
+
+392
+00:38:09,280 --> 00:38:14,460
+بلد آخر ثم لما مات مات في بلاده الأصلي على سبيل
+
+393
+00:38:14,460 --> 00:38:19,760
+المثال الله عز وجل يجمع هذا الجسد يجمع هذه القدم
+
+394
+00:38:19,760 --> 00:38:28,650
+بصاحبها وهو بكل خلقعليم وهو بكل خلق عليم إذا كان
+
+395
+00:38:28,650 --> 00:38:31,970
+.. إذا كان النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم أخبر فيما
+
+396
+00:38:31,970 --> 00:38:38,470
+ترويه عائشة رضوان الله عليها وعن أبيها أخبر أن
+
+397
+00:38:38,470 --> 00:38:46,740
+الله تبارك وتعالى يحشر الناس حفاتا عراتا غرلاحفاتا
+
+398
+00:38:46,740 --> 00:38:54,800
+واضحة عراتا واضحة غرلا بمعنى غير مختونين غير
+
+399
+00:38:54,800 --> 00:39:00,080
+انطهرين يعني فهذه القطعة من الجلد التي تقطع من ذكر
+
+400
+00:39:00,080 --> 00:39:08,880
+الولد عندما يطهر هذه تعود اليه فالله عز وجل قادر
+
+401
+00:39:08,880 --> 00:39:17,430
+وهو بكل خلق عليمبكل خلق عليم فإذا الاستدلال على
+
+402
+00:39:17,430 --> 00:39:24,770
+النشأة الأخرى بالنشأة الأولى هذا دليل عقلي وهو
+
+403
+00:39:24,770 --> 00:39:32,550
+دليل قوي فعند كل العقلاء النشأة الأولى أسهل وأهوان
+
+404
+00:39:32,550 --> 00:39:37,010
+من النشأة الثانية فالقادر على النشأة الأولى قادر
+
+405
+00:39:37,010 --> 00:39:40,850
+على النشأة الثانية من باب أولى بل هو أهوان عليه
+
+406
+00:39:42,820 --> 00:39:47,860
+نأتي إلى دليل آخر أيضًا في نفس الآيات في أواخر
+
+407
+00:39:47,860 --> 00:39:54,260
+سورة ياسين الاستدلال على البعث والاعادة باخراج
+
+408
+00:39:54,260 --> 00:40:01,620
+النار من الشجر الأخضر فالملاحدة المنكرون للبعث
+
+409
+00:40:01,620 --> 00:40:08,650
+يزعمون أن العظام إذا صارت رميمًاعادة أصبح
+
+410
+00:40:08,650 --> 00:40:15,270
+الطبيعتها باردة ويابسة، باردة ويابسة، والحياة
+
+411
+00:40:15,270 --> 00:40:19,750
+الموجودة فينا مثلا الحياة لابد أن تكون مادتها
+
+412
+00:40:19,750 --> 00:40:27,310
+وحملها حارة ورطبة، حارة ورطبة، والطبيعتان مختلفتان
+
+413
+00:40:27,920 --> 00:40:33,320
+فكيف تصبح هذه العظام الباردة اليابسة، الباردة
+
+414
+00:40:33,320 --> 00:40:38,560
+اليابسة، كيف تكون حارة رطبة؟ أليس في الإنسان درجة
+
+415
+00:40:38,560 --> 00:40:43,900
+حرارة ستة وتلاتين درجة مئوية؟ مش كده؟ أليس كذلك؟
+
+416
+00:40:43,900 --> 00:40:50,720
+فكيف سيتحول هذه العظامالبالية العظام الباردة
+
+417
+00:40:50,720 --> 00:40:55,580
+اليابسة الى ايه؟ الى حارة رطبة فيها طراوة وفيها
+
+418
+00:40:55,580 --> 00:41:00,500
+نداوة وفيها حيوية كيف ستتحول؟ هذا هو السؤال عندهم
+
+419
+00:41:00,500 --> 00:41:05,440
+هذا هو السؤال الذي حيارهم فالله عز وجل رد عليهم
+
+420
+00:41:05,440 --> 00:41:12,680
+قال لهم سبحانه وتعالى الله تبارك وتعالى الذي جعل
+
+421
+00:41:12,680 --> 00:41:21,030
+لكم من الشجر الأخضر ناراقادر على أن يجعل هذه
+
+422
+00:41:21,030 --> 00:41:27,410
+العظام الباردة اليابسة فيها حرارة وفيها رطوبة
+
+423
+00:41:27,410 --> 00:41:32,470
+وفيها حيوية ويعيدها إلى سيرتها الأولى يستطيع أن
+
+424
+00:41:32,470 --> 00:41:39,150
+يجعل الحياة تدب فيها كما كانت في المرة الأولى في
+
+425
+00:41:39,150 --> 00:41:43,750
+الحياة الدنيا الذي جعل لكم من الشجر الأخضر نارا
+
+426
+00:41:43,750 --> 00:41:50,340
+وحتى تكون الأمور واضحةالآية فيها الشجر الأخضر
+
+427
+00:41:50,340 --> 00:41:59,920
+وفيها النار وهم نقيضان وضدان ضدان الشجر الأخضر
+
+428
+00:41:59,920 --> 00:42:05,860
+مقتنز الماء فيه الماء فيه مقتنز مليء والماء طبيعته
+
+429
+00:42:05,860 --> 00:42:13,060
+ثقيل لو سكب هكذا ينزل إلى أعلى ثم هو بارد النار
+
+430
+00:42:14,370 --> 00:42:19,710
+طبيعتها خفيفة وهي تصعد الى اعلى فالنار هي عكس
+
+431
+00:42:19,710 --> 00:42:25,390
+الايه؟عكس الماء الله عز وجل يخرج النار من الماء
+
+432
+00:42:25,390 --> 00:42:31,550
+يخرج النار الذي جعل لكم من الشجر الأخضر نارا فإذا
+
+433
+00:42:31,550 --> 00:42:37,130
+أنتم منه توقدون فالذي أخرج النار من الشجر الأخضر
+
+434
+00:42:37,130 --> 00:42:42,690
+قادر على أن يعيد الحياة إلى هذه العظام البالية بل
+
+435
+00:42:42,690 --> 00:42:50,230
+إن الأمر يتعدى ذلك كما جاء في آيات في سورة الإسراء
+
+436
+00:42:51,090 --> 00:42:56,610
+الله عز وجل قال لهم بل كونوا حجارة او حديدة ليس
+
+437
+00:42:56,610 --> 00:43:02,990
+عظاما فحسب ليس عظاما فحسب حتى لو كنتم عظاما او
+
+438
+00:43:02,990 --> 00:43:09,610
+حديدا اسمع الايات وقالوا اذا كنا عظاما ورفاتا انا
+
+439
+00:43:09,610 --> 00:43:17,470
+لما بعوثون خلقا جديدا قل كونوا حجارة او حديدة او
+
+440
+00:43:17,470 --> 00:43:25,480
+خلقا مما يكبر في صدوركمفسيقولون حينها من يعيدنا
+
+441
+00:43:25,480 --> 00:43:31,640
+قول الذي فطركم أول مرة السؤال أيهم أقرب للحياة
+
+442
+00:43:31,640 --> 00:43:40,180
+العظام البالية ام الحجارة والحديد بالتاكيد
+
+443
+00:43:40,180 --> 00:43:45,480
+العظام البالية أقرب للحياة لأنها في يوم من الأيام
+
+444
+00:43:45,480 --> 00:43:50,840
+كان فيها حياة اما الحجارة والحديدفلم يكن فيها يوم
+
+445
+00:43:50,840 --> 00:43:56,720
+من الأيام لم يكن فيها حياة فالله عز وجل حتى لو
+
+446
+00:43:56,720 --> 00:44:01,240
+كانوا حجارة أو حديدة الله عز وجل قادر على أن يعيد
+
+447
+00:44:01,240 --> 00:44:08,160
+لهم الحياة أو أن يوجد فيهم حياة فهذا أيضا من أقوى
+
+448
+00:44:08,160 --> 00:44:17,480
+الأدلة في إثبات البعث والنشورفالله عز وجل قادر على
+
+449
+00:44:17,480 --> 00:44:22,480
+إخراج الشيء من ضده قادر سبحانه وتعالى على إخراج
+
+450
+00:44:22,480 --> 00:44:28,680
+الشيء من ضده فهو الذي يتحكم في هذه المخلوقات كيف
+
+451
+00:44:28,680 --> 00:44:33,840
+شاء سبحانه وتعالى نقف إلى هذا الحد في هذا اليوم إن
+
+452
+00:44:33,840 --> 00:44:38,400
+شاء الله لنكمل هذه الأدلة بمشيئة الله تبارك وتعالى
+
+453
+00:44:38,400 --> 00:44:42,440
+في اللقاء القادم أقول قول هذا وأستغفر الله لي ولكم
+
+454
+00:44:42,440 --> 00:44:44,580
+والسلام عليكم ورحمة الله وبركاته
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/MhdfchmOzbE_postprocess.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/MhdfchmOzbE_postprocess.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..3d59572de03e2b91775e5783dc4126915c929783
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/MhdfchmOzbE_postprocess.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,2668 @@
+1
+00:00:21,290 --> 00:00:24,990
+أعوذ بالله السميع العلي من الشيطان الرجيم بسم الله
+
+2
+00:00:24,990 --> 00:00:30,550
+الرحمن الرحيم الحمد لله رب العالمين وأصلي وأسلم
+
+3
+00:00:30,550 --> 00:00:34,390
+على رسول الله الأمين محمد بن عبد الله الصادق
+
+4
+00:00:34,390 --> 00:00:38,370
+الأمين صلى الله عليه وعلى آله وصحبه وسلم أجمعين
+
+5
+00:00:38,370 --> 00:00:44,950
+وبعد اليوم استكمالا لموضوع دلائل النبوة مع الدليل
+
+6
+00:00:44,950 --> 00:00:51,890
+الخامس والأخير من هذه الأدلة في هذا المساقوهو
+
+7
+00:00:51,890 --> 00:00:56,590
+الاستدلال بالمعجزة خامسا الاستدلال بالمعجزة
+
+8
+00:00:56,590 --> 00:01:06,650
+فالمعجزة دليل يستدل به على صدق نبوة مدّعي النبوة
+
+9
+00:01:06,650 --> 00:01:12,650
+هذا الموضوع من الموضوعات الهمة ولذلك سنفسر القول
+
+10
+00:01:12,650 --> 00:01:21,610
+فيه فسنتحدث عن تعريف المعجزة لغة وصلاحةسنتكلم في
+
+11
+00:01:21,610 --> 00:01:32,190
+معناها وشروطها وحكم الإيمان بها وطرق ثبوتها الفرق
+
+12
+00:01:32,190 --> 00:01:37,450
+بين المعجزة وبين غيرها من خوارق الإعادات ثم أخيرا
+
+13
+00:01:37,450 --> 00:01:43,970
+مناسبة كل معجزة للعصر الذي وقعت فيه إذا سنبدأ في
+
+14
+00:01:43,970 --> 00:01:50,090
+تعريف المعجزة لغة واصطلاحا أولاأما لغة المعجزة اسم
+
+15
+00:01:50,090 --> 00:01:56,570
+فاعل من العجز وهو زوال القدرة عن الإتيان بالشيء
+
+16
+00:01:56,570 --> 00:02:05,400
+العجز نقول فلان عاجز يعني قادر لا يستطيعزوال
+
+17
+00:02:05,400 --> 00:02:10,480
+القدرة عن الإتيان بالشيء ممكن يكون هذا العجز عن
+
+18
+00:02:10,480 --> 00:02:16,920
+القيام بعمل مثل رفع هذا الحجر فهو عاجز عن رفعه لأن
+
+19
+00:02:16,920 --> 00:02:22,000
+هذا الحجر وزنه فوق طاقته فهو عاجز أمام هذا الحجر
+
+20
+00:02:22,000 --> 00:02:27,840
+أو رأي لو جلسنا نتحدث في نستشير بعضنا البعض في أمر
+
+21
+00:02:27,840 --> 00:02:35,300
+ما وواحد من الجالسين يجلس لا رأي لهفهو عاجز ان
+
+22
+00:02:35,300 --> 00:02:38,280
+يدلي برأيه نقول له ما رأيه كان في الموضوع الفلاني
+
+23
+00:02:38,280 --> 00:02:43,540
+ويقول انا والله ماعنديش رأي انا يعني مش فاهم اصلا
+
+24
+00:02:43,540 --> 00:02:48,380
+ايه اللي بتتكلموا فيه فيعتبر انسان ايه يعتبر انسان
+
+25
+00:02:48,380 --> 00:02:55,880
+عاجز او تدبير اذا العجز يكون في عمل او في رأي او
+
+26
+00:02:55,880 --> 00:03:01,980
+في تدبير ككثير من الرجال احيانافي إدارة شؤون
+
+27
+00:03:01,980 --> 00:03:08,940
+بيوتهم مع زوجته وأبنائه أو وضعناه مديرا أو رئيس
+
+28
+00:03:08,940 --> 00:03:13,800
+قسم لدائرة من الدوائر لا يستطيع إدارتها فهو لا
+
+29
+00:03:13,800 --> 00:03:17,700
+يستطيع أن يدبر أمر هذا القسم أو هذه الدائرة أو هذه
+
+30
+00:03:17,700 --> 00:03:23,180
+الأسرة فهذا يعتبر عاجز إذا هذا معنى المعجزة لغة
+
+31
+00:03:23,180 --> 00:03:28,340
+أما الصلاحة فبين أيدينا جملة من التعريفات نقلناها
+
+32
+00:03:28,340 --> 00:03:34,530
+لأهميتهاكلها تعريفات إنشائية تتفاوت فيما بينها في
+
+33
+00:03:34,530 --> 00:03:41,230
+التعابير والصياغات والألفاظ والشروط التي وضعها كل
+
+34
+00:03:41,230 --> 00:03:48,430
+عالم من هؤلاء العلماء للمعجزة سنقرأها جميعا، نمر
+
+35
+00:03:48,430 --> 00:03:54,120
+عليها مرورا سريعالنقف بعدها مباشرة على شروط
+
+36
+00:03:54,120 --> 00:03:58,380
+المعجزة هذه الشروط هذه الشروط أتينا بها من جملة
+
+37
+00:03:58,380 --> 00:04:04,540
+هذه التعريفات الاصطلاحية لمصطلح المعجزة أول تعريف
+
+38
+00:04:04,540 --> 00:04:08,740
+للإمام الصيوتي عليه الرحمة الله يقول المعجزة أمر
+
+39
+00:04:08,740 --> 00:04:18,780
+خارق للعادة أمر خارق للعادة وهذا القيد سنجده مكرر
+
+40
+00:04:19,570 --> 00:04:23,790
+يعني تقريبا في كل هذه التعريفات أمر خارق للعادة
+
+41
+00:04:23,790 --> 00:04:28,550
+أمر خارق للعادة عند كل العلماء ومعنى أمر خارق
+
+42
+00:04:28,550 --> 00:04:32,870
+للعادة يعني أنه أمر غير مقلوف في حياة الناس غير
+
+43
+00:04:32,870 --> 00:04:38,190
+مقلوف في حياة الناس المعجزة أمر خارق للعادة الناس
+
+44
+00:04:38,190 --> 00:04:43,270
+لم يألفوه ليسوا معتادين عليه هو جاء على غير
+
+45
+00:04:43,270 --> 00:04:47,730
+الطريقة التي تاتي بها الأمور عادة في حياة الناس
+
+46
+00:04:48,100 --> 00:04:52,720
+يعني لا نستطيع أن نقول أن طلوع الشمس من مغربها هو
+
+47
+00:04:52,720 --> 00:04:57,940
+معجزة من معجزات النبي هو صحيح أنه أمر معجز من حيث
+
+48
+00:04:57,940 --> 00:05:02,120
+نسبته لله عز وجل فالله عز وجل ضبط هذا الوجود
+
+49
+00:05:02,120 --> 00:05:07,620
+فالشمس تخرج بقدرة الله تعالى من المشرق لكن لا يأتي
+
+50
+00:05:07,620 --> 00:05:12,340
+نبي فيقول معجزتي خروج الشمس من مشرقها لأن الناس
+
+51
+00:05:12,340 --> 00:05:19,060
+اعتادوا ذلكاعتادوا ذلك بخلاف ان يأتي النبي فيطلب
+
+52
+00:05:19,060 --> 00:05:24,140
+منه مثلا ان يشق القمر او ان ينزل مائدة من السماء
+
+53
+00:05:24,140 --> 00:05:28,840
+كما كان من النصارى عندما طلبوا ذلك من عيسى عليه
+
+54
+00:05:28,840 --> 00:05:34,020
+السلام او غير ذلك من المعجزات التي سنتحدث عنها اذا
+
+55
+00:05:34,020 --> 00:05:39,940
+هو امر خارق للعادة مقرون بالتحدي هذه القيود سنجدها
+
+56
+00:05:39,940 --> 00:05:46,980
+بعد ذلك هي شروط من شروط المعجزةإذا المعجزة عند
+
+57
+00:05:46,980 --> 00:05:53,200
+الصيوط أمر خارق للعادة مقرون بالتحدي فمدعي النبوة
+
+58
+00:05:53,200 --> 00:05:58,660
+يتحدى بها قومه أن يأتوا بمثله هذا الأمر المعجز
+
+59
+00:05:58,660 --> 00:06:04,010
+سالم عن المعارضة لا يستطيع أحد أن يأتي بمثلهوإلا
+
+60
+00:06:04,010 --> 00:06:11,710
+لو أتى واحد بمثله فلا يعتبر معجزا، لذلك السحر أمر
+
+61
+00:06:11,710 --> 00:06:16,290
+خارق للعادة، لكن غير سالم عن المعارضة، يمكن لساحر
+
+62
+00:06:16,290 --> 00:06:22,230
+أقوى أو أعلمفالسحر كما سيأتي إن شاء الله هو قواعد
+
+63
+00:06:22,230 --> 00:06:27,550
+يمكن أن تكتسب أن تتعلم أن يتعلمها الإنسان يهتم
+
+64
+00:06:27,550 --> 00:06:33,330
+بهذا الأمر فيصبح ساحرا قويا ويستطيع أن يبطل سحر
+
+65
+00:06:33,330 --> 00:06:38,150
+غيره فأما المعجزة فهي ليس من هذا القبيل هي أمر
+
+66
+00:06:38,150 --> 00:06:41,770
+خارق للعادة لكن سالمة عن المعارضة لا يستطيع أحد أن
+
+67
+00:06:41,770 --> 00:06:49,720
+يأتي بمثلها بعد أنها متحدة بها الإمام الإسفرينيله
+
+68
+00:06:49,720 --> 00:06:56,360
+تعريف آخر يقول المعجزة فعل يظهر على يد مدّاع
+
+69
+00:06:56,360 --> 00:07:02,480
+النبوة، لحظة، على يد مدّاع النبوة، وهذا شرط أيضا
+
+70
+00:07:02,480 --> 00:07:05,580
+من شروطها، من شروط المعجزة، أنها يجب أن تكون
+
+71
+00:07:05,580 --> 00:07:10,760
+مقرونة بالدعاء النبوة،يظهر على يد مدعي النبوة
+
+72
+00:07:10,760 --> 00:07:16,280
+بخلاف العادة بخلاف العادة يعني أمر خارق للعادة غير
+
+73
+00:07:16,280 --> 00:07:22,240
+مألوف في حياة الناس في زمان التكليف زمان النبوات
+
+74
+00:07:22,240 --> 00:07:28,340
+في زمن من أزمان النبوة أما أن تأتي في آخر الزمان
+
+75
+00:07:28,340 --> 00:07:37,710
+في زمن نقض العادة بيسموه في زمننقض العادة وتغيير
+
+76
+00:07:37,710 --> 00:07:44,450
+حال العالم العلوي والسفلي في آخر الزمن هذا لا
+
+77
+00:07:44,450 --> 00:07:50,890
+يعتبر معجزا فما يكون من خوارق على يد الدجال لا
+
+78
+00:07:50,890 --> 00:07:56,370
+يعتبر معجزا لأنه ليس في زمن التكليف موافقا لدعواه
+
+79
+00:07:56,370 --> 00:08:00,900
+أيضا هذا شرط من شروط المعجزةلا يجب أن تكون المعجزة
+
+80
+00:08:00,900 --> 00:08:05,700
+موافقة لدعوة النبي فلو جاءت مخالفة لا تكون معجزة
+
+81
+00:08:05,700 --> 00:08:14,800
+لو قال معجزتي معجزتي مثلا نطق هذا الحجر فقال له
+
+82
+00:08:14,800 --> 00:08:20,360
+الحجر أنت كاذب يعني لم يصدقه لم يؤيده إنما قال له
+
+83
+00:08:20,360 --> 00:08:25,280
+أنت كاذب نطق الحجر لكن قال له أنت كاذب أو كما حصل
+
+84
+00:08:25,280 --> 00:08:34,630
+مع مسلم الكذابسمع أن النبي تفلى في عين عليه عندما
+
+85
+00:08:34,630 --> 00:08:42,770
+رمضت عيناه فبرئت ففعل ذلك بإنسان جاءه رمض عينا له
+
+86
+00:08:42,770 --> 00:08:50,470
+عين واحدة عين له عمية الآخرة عمية السليمة فهذا
+
+87
+00:08:50,470 --> 00:08:57,090
+الإدعاء جاء مكذبا له وهو يدعو الخلق إلى معارضته
+
+88
+00:08:57,890 --> 00:09:02,930
+طبعا هو يتحدى يتحدى قومه ويتحدهم أن يأتوا بمثله
+
+89
+00:09:02,930 --> 00:09:10,170
+فيعجزوا عنه فيبين بيه صدق من يظهر على يديه الشيخ
+
+90
+00:09:10,170 --> 00:09:15,610
+البوطي عليه الرحمة الله أيه العام؟ الشيخ البوطي
+
+91
+00:09:15,610 --> 00:09:21,930
+وهو علم من علماء سورية عليه الرحمة الله قتلة في
+
+92
+00:09:21,930 --> 00:09:28,080
+ظروف يعني غامضةولا نستبعد أن يكون النظام خلف قتله
+
+93
+00:09:28,080 --> 00:09:32,380
+وهو يعطي درسا في بيت من بيوت الله تبارك وتعالى
+
+94
+00:09:32,380 --> 00:09:37,120
+الشيخ محمد سعيد رمضان البوطي عليه الرحمة الله له
+
+95
+00:09:37,120 --> 00:09:40,320
+كتب كثيرة في العقيدة وهو متخصص أصلا في العقيدة
+
+96
+00:09:40,320 --> 00:09:45,700
+عالم من العلماء البارزين من علماء هذا العصر يعرف
+
+97
+00:09:45,700 --> 00:09:48,800
+المعجزة
+
+98
+00:09:48,800 --> 00:09:54,570
+بقوله هي أمر خارق للعادةيظهر على يد مدّعي النبوة
+
+99
+00:09:54,570 --> 00:10:01,510
+عند تحدي المنكرين لهو يعني أحيانا يأتي المنكرون
+
+100
+00:10:01,510 --> 00:10:08,410
+كفار فيقولون للنبي إن شققت لنا القمر، إن أنزل ربك
+
+101
+00:10:08,410 --> 00:10:12,980
+علينا مائد، أن أؤمن بك، هكذا يطلبوا منه معجزةأي
+
+102
+00:10:12,980 --> 00:10:17,880
+نعم عند تحدي المنكرين له على وجه تأتي هذه المعجزة
+
+103
+00:10:17,880 --> 00:10:23,280
+على وجه يبين صدق دعواه فتأتي تحصل المعجزة فتؤكد
+
+104
+00:10:23,280 --> 00:10:30,280
+صدق هذا الذي يدعي النبوه صاحب كتاب منائل العرفان
+
+105
+00:10:30,280 --> 00:10:37,560
+الشيخ الزرقاني في علوم القرآن يعرف
+
+106
+00:10:37,560 --> 00:10:43,100
+المعجزة بقوله عندنا تعريفين لهبقول هي أمر يعجز
+
+107
+00:10:43,100 --> 00:10:47,840
+البشر متفرقين
+
+108
+00:10:47,840 --> 00:10:55,480
+ومجتمعين عن الإتيان بمثله متفرقين
+
+109
+00:10:55,480 --> 00:11:01,120
+يعني كل واحد بفرده بشخصه أو مجتمعين قل إن اجتمعت
+
+110
+00:11:01,120 --> 00:11:06,860
+الإنس والجن على أن يأتوا بمثل هذا القرآن لا يأتون
+
+111
+00:11:06,860 --> 00:11:13,000
+بمثله ولو كان بعضهم لبعض ظاهرةإذا هي أمر يعجز
+
+112
+00:11:13,000 --> 00:11:17,440
+البشر متفرقين ومجتمعين عن الاتيان بمثله أو تعريف
+
+113
+00:11:17,440 --> 00:11:23,760
+آخر له هي أمر خارق للعادة خارج عن حدود الأسباب
+
+114
+00:11:23,760 --> 00:11:29,520
+المعروفة يخلقه الله تعالى حطي تحت كلمة يخلقه الله
+
+115
+00:11:29,520 --> 00:11:35,420
+تعالى خطين تلاتة ما شئت من الخطوط أمر هام جدا هذه
+
+116
+00:11:35,420 --> 00:11:40,050
+لأول مرة تذكر في التعريفاتيخلقه الله تعالى وهي أمر
+
+117
+00:11:40,050 --> 00:11:45,530
+هام جدا، هذا ما يجب أن نعيه في هذا الدرس أن
+
+118
+00:11:45,530 --> 00:11:50,230
+المعجزة هي من فعل الله، هي من فعل الله وليس من فعل
+
+119
+00:11:50,230 --> 00:11:54,970
+النبي، هي تأتي تصديقا للنبي، تأتي تأيدا للنبي،
+
+120
+00:11:54,970 --> 00:11:59,740
+تأتي لبيان صدق النبي في دعواه، لكن هي من فعل من؟من
+
+121
+00:11:59,740 --> 00:12:04,140
+فعل الله تبارك وتعالى يخلقه الله تعالى على يد
+
+122
+00:12:04,140 --> 00:12:08,740
+مدّاع النبوة عند دعواه عند دعواه إياها شاهدا على
+
+123
+00:12:08,740 --> 00:12:12,960
+صدقه لاحظ التعريفات كلها قريبة من بعضها البعض
+
+124
+00:12:12,960 --> 00:12:17,500
+الميداني عبدالرحمن حسن حبانك الميداني وهو عالم
+
+125
+00:12:17,500 --> 00:12:22,700
+شامي أيضا من سوريا له كتب كثيرة هذا التعريف من
+
+126
+00:12:22,700 --> 00:12:28,210
+كتابه العقيدة الإسلامية وأسسهابيقول المعجزة أمر
+
+127
+00:12:28,210 --> 00:12:35,270
+ممكن عقلا ممكن عقلا يعني من الممكنات ليس من الأمور
+
+128
+00:12:35,270 --> 00:12:40,570
+المستحيلة والله عز وجل ليس في حقه مستحيل ممكن عقلا
+
+129
+00:12:40,570 --> 00:12:46,270
+العقل يقبل ذلك ويمكن أن تحصل هذه المعجزة خارق
+
+130
+00:12:46,270 --> 00:12:50,710
+للعادة غير مألوف في حياة الناس مرة تانية أهيه
+
+131
+00:12:50,710 --> 00:12:51,970
+يجريها الله
+
+132
+00:12:54,810 --> 00:13:01,630
+يجريها الله فالمعجز أيوة يخلقه الله يجريه الله على
+
+133
+00:13:01,630 --> 00:13:08,010
+يد من أراد أن يؤيده ليثبت بذلك صدق نبوته وصحة
+
+134
+00:13:08,010 --> 00:13:11,570
+رسالته هذه التعريفات على كثرتها إلا أنها كلها في
+
+135
+00:13:11,570 --> 00:13:16,170
+سياق واحد كلها متقاربة ليست بعيدة بإمكانك أن تسوغي
+
+136
+00:13:16,170 --> 00:13:23,410
+لوحدك لوحدك تعريفا من هذه التعريفاتتختاري العناصر
+
+137
+00:13:23,410 --> 00:13:27,650
+الهمة في كل تعريف من هذه التعريفات لتخرجي بتعريف
+
+138
+00:13:27,650 --> 00:13:34,430
+جامع مانع صحيح كامل للمعجزة اصطلاحا تعالى نشوف
+
+139
+00:13:34,430 --> 00:13:37,870
+شروط المعجزة حتى نكمل هذا الموضوع وعلى ذلك فإن
+
+140
+00:13:37,870 --> 00:13:42,910
+شروط المعجزة حسب هذه التعريفات هي واحد ان تكون
+
+141
+00:13:42,910 --> 00:13:48,810
+المعجزة من الله تعالى دون غيره من الله من الله من
+
+142
+00:13:48,810 --> 00:13:53,990
+وين أخدناها هذه؟من يخلقه الله مش كده؟ اه لأنها
+
+143
+00:13:53,990 --> 00:13:57,990
+تصديق منه لرسوله صلى الله عليه وسلم اه تصديق منه
+
+144
+00:13:57,990 --> 00:14:02,770
+لرسوله فلا يصدقه بفعل غيره هي من خلق الله الله هو
+
+145
+00:14:02,770 --> 00:14:07,870
+الذي تولى ذلك يخلق الله يحدث الله عز وجل الأمر
+
+146
+00:14:07,870 --> 00:14:16,850
+الخارق للعادة ليؤيد نبيه أو يؤيد مدعي النبوة طيب
+
+147
+00:14:16,850 --> 00:14:20,950
+طبعا ممكن يكون هذا التأييد قولاممكن يكون هذا
+
+148
+00:14:20,950 --> 00:14:24,110
+التأييد ممكن تكون معجزة قولا كالقرآن الكريم أو
+
+149
+00:14:24,110 --> 00:14:30,150
+فعلا فعل عمل من الأعمال كفلق البحر لسيدنا موسى
+
+150
+00:14:30,150 --> 00:14:39,430
+عليه السلام هتعمل مش كده معجزة أم تركا كعدم
+
+151
+00:14:39,430 --> 00:14:42,930
+إحراق النار لسيدنا إبراهيم عليه السلام عندما سلب
+
+152
+00:14:42,930 --> 00:14:46,570
+الله عز وجل خاصية الإحراق من النار، النار بطبيعتها
+
+153
+00:14:46,570 --> 00:14:53,280
+تحرقمش كده؟ تحرق ما يُلقى فيها، هذه طبيعة النار،
+
+154
+00:14:53,280 --> 00:14:56,200
+لكن أمر خارق للعادة، غير مألوف في حياة الناس، أن
+
+155
+00:14:56,200 --> 00:15:01,520
+يُلقى إنسان ولا يحرق بأمر الله تبارك وتعالى، يا
+
+156
+00:15:01,520 --> 00:15:07,440
+ناروا كوني بردا وسلاما على إبراهيم، بردا، ليس بردا
+
+157
+00:15:07,440 --> 00:15:13,640
+فقط، قد يموت من البرد، وسلاما، وسلاما على إبراهيم
+
+158
+00:15:14,960 --> 00:15:19,180
+الشرط الثاني من شروط المعجزة أن تكون خارقة للعادة
+
+159
+00:15:19,180 --> 00:15:25,140
+لأنها لو لم تكن كذلك لأمكن للكاذب ادعاء الرسالة
+
+160
+00:15:25,140 --> 00:15:30,440
+ادعاء الرسالة يجب أن تكون خارقة للعادة قد يقول
+
+161
+00:15:30,440 --> 00:15:36,820
+قائل السحر الشعوذة المخترعات الغريبة خارقة للعادة
+
+162
+00:15:36,820 --> 00:15:42,960
+لكن هذه هذه ليست معجزات هذه أمور خارقة للعادة
+
+163
+00:15:44,000 --> 00:15:49,960
+بالنسبة للبعض لكن هي حقيقة قواعد يمكن أن يتعلمها
+
+164
+00:15:49,960 --> 00:15:55,260
+يمكن أن يتعلمها الإنسان ويبرع فيها ويصبح قادر
+
+165
+00:15:55,260 --> 00:16:02,200
+عليها ولا نجد ساحرا إلا ونجد من هو أمهر منه وأقدر
+
+166
+00:16:02,200 --> 00:16:09,620
+عليه وعلى إبطال سحره نجد هكذا من هو أمهر منه إذا
+
+167
+00:16:10,920 --> 00:16:14,800
+هذا الشرط الثاني أن تكون خارقة للعادة تلاتة أن
+
+168
+00:16:14,800 --> 00:16:21,260
+تكون على يد من يدعي النبوة أو الرسالة يجب أن تكون
+
+169
+00:16:21,260 --> 00:16:27,460
+هذه المعجزة أن تكون مقرونة بالدعاء أحد الأشخاص
+
+170
+00:16:27,460 --> 00:16:35,000
+النبوة فتأتي المعجزة مصدقة له مصدقة له فهذا إنسان
+
+171
+00:16:35,000 --> 00:16:41,280
+هذا رجل فاضلإنسان خير من أهل الخير من أهل الصلاح
+
+172
+00:16:41,280 --> 00:16:45,740
+يدعو الناس إلى عبادة الله تبارك وتعالى فيكذبونه
+
+173
+00:16:45,740 --> 00:16:50,700
+فتأتي هذه المعجزة تحصل هذه المعجزة تأييدا له
+
+174
+00:16:50,700 --> 00:16:56,700
+تأييدا لمن يدعي النبوة أو الرسالة الشرط الرابع كما
+
+175
+00:16:56,700 --> 00:17:00,660
+ترون الأمر يعني في غاية الوضوح أربعة أن لا تكون
+
+176
+00:17:00,660 --> 00:17:02,520
+متقدمة على دعوة النبوة
+
+177
+00:17:05,040 --> 00:17:11,120
+لا يصلح أن تكون المعجزة قبل النبوة، يجب أن تكون
+
+178
+00:17:11,120 --> 00:17:17,040
+مقارنة لها أو بعدها، بزمن يسيرفإن كانت قبل ادعاء
+
+179
+00:17:17,040 --> 00:17:24,360
+النبوة، هذا يسمى إرهاص، كما كان لسيدنا النبي صلى
+
+180
+00:17:24,360 --> 00:17:29,160
+الله عليه وسلم كإضواء الغمام له قبل بعثته وشق
+
+181
+00:17:29,160 --> 00:17:33,260
+الصدر وككلام عيسى عليه السلام في المهد، هذه تسمى
+
+182
+00:17:33,260 --> 00:17:40,140
+إرهاصات، دلالاتإرهاصات أنها سيكون له شأن عظيم،
+
+183
+00:17:40,140 --> 00:17:44,600
+لهذا الإنسان سيكون له شأن عظيم، لكن النبوة تكون
+
+184
+00:17:44,600 --> 00:17:50,460
+مقارنة أو متأخرة عن المعجزة بزمن يسير، المعجزة
+
+185
+00:17:50,460 --> 00:18:00,100
+تكون مقارنة للنبوةأو متأخر عن الدعوى النبوة بزمن
+
+186
+00:18:00,100 --> 00:18:06,820
+يسير يعني كما طلب مشركو مكة من النبي صلى الله عليه
+
+187
+00:18:06,820 --> 00:18:12,780
+وسلم ان يشق لهم القمر في وضع النهار لن يروا القمر
+
+188
+00:18:12,780 --> 00:18:17,300
+لن يتمكنوا من رؤية القمر فلما جاء الليل المدة
+
+189
+00:18:17,300 --> 00:18:21,960
+الزمنية من النهار إلى الليل مدة يسيرة فبعد ذلك رأى
+
+190
+00:18:21,960 --> 00:18:30,140
+الناسالقمر وقد انشق فلقتين فهذه معجزة مقارنة لدعوة
+
+191
+00:18:30,140 --> 00:18:35,740
+النبوة ليست متقدمة عليها إنما جاءت متأخر عنها لكن
+
+192
+00:18:35,740 --> 00:18:45,890
+بزمن يسير خمسة أن تكون المعجزة موافقة للمطلوبأن
+
+193
+00:18:45,890 --> 00:18:50,490
+تكون المعجزة يعني مؤيدة لهذا الذي يدعي النبوة، لا
+
+194
+00:18:50,490 --> 00:18:54,450
+أن تكون مخالفة له، فإن كانت مخالفة له تعتبر إهانة
+
+195
+00:18:55,280 --> 00:19:00,240
+وهذا ما حصل كما قلنا قبل قليل لمسيلم الكذاب لما
+
+196
+00:19:00,240 --> 00:19:05,540
+تفلى في عين من أصابه الرمد في عينه فعميت الأخرى
+
+197
+00:19:05,540 --> 00:19:10,580
+فعميت الأخرى فإذا هي غير موافقة له فلم تكن له
+
+198
+00:19:10,580 --> 00:19:16,880
+معجزة إنما كانت له إهانة أما نبينا صلى الله عليه
+
+199
+00:19:16,880 --> 00:19:24,780
+وسلم فتفلى في عين عليه فبرئت وقد أصابها الرمدألا
+
+200
+00:19:24,780 --> 00:19:31,160
+تكون مكذبة للمدّعي يجب أن تكون موافقة له فلو قال
+
+201
+00:19:31,160 --> 00:19:36,840
+الإنسان معجزة معجزتي نطق هذا الحجر فنطق الحجر وقال
+
+202
+00:19:36,840 --> 00:19:43,840
+له أنت كاذب أنت ليس نبيا فهذه تكون أيضا إهانة يجب
+
+203
+00:19:43,840 --> 00:19:49,280
+أن تكون مصدقة له مؤيدة لأن تأتي المعجزة تأييدا له
+
+204
+00:19:49,280 --> 00:19:56,340
+لبيان صدقه في دعوةالأمر السابع أن تتعذر معارضة
+
+205
+00:19:56,340 --> 00:20:02,740
+الأمر الخارق للعادى والإتيان بمثله قلنا أنه لو
+
+206
+00:20:02,740 --> 00:20:08,860
+أمكن معارضة هذا الأمر الذي يجريه الله تبارك وتعالى
+
+207
+00:20:08,860 --> 00:20:16,620
+لو حصل أن جاء المشركون
+
+208
+00:20:16,620 --> 00:20:21,270
+بمثل هذه المعجزة لاتكون معجزةلكن نجد أن المعجزات
+
+209
+00:20:21,270 --> 00:20:25,450
+سالمة عن المعارضة تماما لا يستطيع أحد أن يأتي
+
+210
+00:20:25,450 --> 00:20:30,130
+بمثلها لا يستطيع ولذلك نص عليها العلماء في
+
+211
+00:20:30,130 --> 00:20:35,590
+تعريفاتهم للمعجزة سالمة عن المعارضة هذا الأمر
+
+212
+00:20:35,590 --> 00:20:40,390
+الخارق للعادة يجب أن يكون سالمة عن المعارضة يعني
+
+213
+00:20:40,390 --> 00:20:47,250
+لا يستطيع أحد أن يأتي بمثله الأمر الثامن والأخير
+
+214
+00:20:47,630 --> 00:20:51,990
+الشرط الثامن والاخير قال لا تكون في زمان نقض
+
+215
+00:20:51,990 --> 00:20:58,400
+العادة كزمن طلوع الشمس من مغربها وتكلم الدابةوظهور
+
+216
+00:20:58,400 --> 00:21:02,880
+المسيح الدجال هذه بالتأكيد هي معجزات في حق الله
+
+217
+00:21:02,880 --> 00:21:06,620
+تبارك وتعالى صحيح أنها أمر معجز أن الله عز وجل
+
+218
+00:21:06,620 --> 00:21:12,060
+المتصرف في هذا الكون يخرج الشمس منذ أن خلقها من
+
+219
+00:21:12,060 --> 00:21:18,460
+المشرق وتغيب في المغرب وتكون خوارق أيضا الله عز
+
+220
+00:21:18,460 --> 00:21:23,040
+وجل يجريها على يد الدجال هذه أمور خارقة للعادة
+
+221
+00:21:23,040 --> 00:21:28,160
+لكنها في زمان نقض العادة ليست في زمان التكليفليست
+
+222
+00:21:28,160 --> 00:21:34,020
+في زمان النبوات، ليست في زمان النبوات، ولذلك هذه
+
+223
+00:21:34,020 --> 00:21:38,380
+الأمور الخارقة للعادة لا تعد معجزات، لا تعد
+
+224
+00:21:38,380 --> 00:21:44,420
+معجزات، إنما هي تعد معجزات اصطلاحا بمعنى أن الله
+
+225
+00:21:44,420 --> 00:21:50,990
+تبارك وتعالى يعني شاءتإرادته أن تكون الحياة أن
+
+226
+00:21:50,990 --> 00:21:55,490
+تكون الشمس بهذه الطريقة تخرج من مشرقها وتغيب في
+
+227
+00:21:55,490 --> 00:22:01,550
+مغربها أو المعجزات التي عفوا الخوارق التي تكون على
+
+228
+00:22:01,550 --> 00:22:05,330
+يد الدجال هي أمور خارقة للعادة أمور خارقة للعادة
+
+229
+00:22:05,330 --> 00:22:10,210
+ولكن كما سيأتي هي هي من الاستدراج هي من باب
+
+230
+00:22:10,210 --> 00:22:14,010
+الاستدراج خارقة للعادة لكن هي من باب الاستدراج
+
+231
+00:22:14,010 --> 00:22:20,080
+والابتلاء لأهل ذلك الزمانعلى كل حال هذا هو التعريف
+
+232
+00:22:20,080 --> 00:22:25,660
+المعجزة لغة واصطلاحا وهذه هي شروطها الثمانية يترى
+
+233
+00:22:25,660 --> 00:22:31,720
+ما حكم الإيمان بالمعجزة ما حكم الإيمان بالمعجزة
+
+234
+00:22:31,720 --> 00:22:37,060
+بالتأكيد يجب على كل مسلم أن يعتقد أن الله تبارك
+
+235
+00:22:37,060 --> 00:22:41,620
+وتعالى قد جهز أنبياءه ورسوله الذين أرسلهم إلى
+
+236
+00:22:41,620 --> 00:22:48,150
+الناس بمعجزات تبين صدق دعوتهم وهذا الأمرهذا الوجوب
+
+237
+00:22:48,150 --> 00:22:52,690
+هذا التأييد من الله تبارك وتعالى لأنبيائه ومرسليه
+
+238
+00:22:52,690 --> 00:22:58,310
+يبينه حديث النبي صلى الله عليه و سلم كل نبي جعل
+
+239
+00:22:58,310 --> 00:23:04,410
+الله عز وجل له معجزات هذه المعجزات تعين الناس تعين
+
+240
+00:23:04,410 --> 00:23:09,750
+الناس على الإيمان بهذا النبي وتؤيد وتصدق صدق دعوة
+
+241
+00:23:09,750 --> 00:23:14,610
+هذا النبي ما من الأنبياء في الحديث الصحيح ما من
+
+242
+00:23:14,610 --> 00:23:23,850
+الأنبياء نبيإلا أعطي ما مثله آمن عليه البشر ما من
+
+243
+00:23:23,850 --> 00:23:32,910
+الأنبياء نبي إلا أعطيه من المعجزات من الآيات ما
+
+244
+00:23:32,910 --> 00:23:39,110
+مثله آمن عليه البشر ثم يتحدث عن نفسه عليه الصلاة
+
+245
+00:23:39,110 --> 00:23:43,710
+والسلام ماذا أعطاه الله عز وجل بماذا أيده الله عز
+
+246
+00:23:43,710 --> 00:23:49,180
+وجلبماذا أيده؟ أعظم ما أيده الله عز وجل وإنما كان
+
+247
+00:23:49,180 --> 00:23:55,160
+الذي أوتيته أعظم ما أوتيته أعظم معجزاتي وحياً
+
+248
+00:23:55,160 --> 00:24:02,380
+أوحاه الله إليه أعظم معجزة المعجزة الكبرى سماها
+
+249
+00:24:02,380 --> 00:24:07,200
+العلماء ومنهم أبو زهر عليه رحمة الله سما كتابا له
+
+250
+00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:13,350
+مجلة كامل اسمه المعجزة الكبرىوإنما كان الذي أوتيته
+
+251
+00:24:13,350 --> 00:24:18,530
+وحيا أوحاه الله إليه فأرجو أن أكون أكثرهم تابعا
+
+252
+00:24:18,530 --> 00:24:23,290
+يوم القيامة فإذا يا أخوتي الإيمان بالمعجزات واجب
+
+253
+00:24:23,290 --> 00:24:32,690
+على كل من ينتمي لهذا الدين ومنكر المعجزات كافر لأن
+
+254
+00:24:32,690 --> 00:24:40,450
+المعجزات بعضها ثابت بالأدلة القطعيةورد ذكره كثير
+
+255
+00:24:40,450 --> 00:24:48,190
+منها في القرآن الكريم ليست معجزات نبينا فحسب إنما
+
+256
+00:24:48,190 --> 00:24:54,970
+معجزات الأنبياء السابقين الطوفان كمعجزة لسيدنا نوح
+
+257
+00:24:54,970 --> 00:25:05,130
+عليه السلام العصى والقمل والدفاضع والدم واليد
+
+258
+00:25:07,260 --> 00:25:12,080
+هذه لموسى عليه السلام وعيسى عليه السلام يبرق
+
+259
+00:25:12,080 --> 00:25:17,050
+الأكمه والأبرص ويحيي الموت بإذن اللهوالمائدة ورد
+
+260
+00:25:17,050 --> 00:25:21,390
+ذكرها في القرآن الكريم ومعجزات نبينا صلى الله عليه
+
+261
+00:25:21,390 --> 00:25:26,890
+وسلم كشق القمر هذه أيضا وغيرها القرآن الكريم في حد
+
+262
+00:25:26,890 --> 00:25:33,030
+ذاته أعظم معجزات النبي فكلها كثير من المعجزات التي
+
+263
+00:25:33,030 --> 00:25:37,850
+نتحدث عنها هنا هي معجزات ذكرها القرآن الكريم ومنكر
+
+264
+00:25:37,850 --> 00:25:42,890
+القرآن الكريم أو حقيقة من حقائقه هو كافر لا شك في
+
+265
+00:25:42,890 --> 00:25:51,180
+ذلكنعرض هنا إلى شبهة يتحدث بها البعض يقول يعني لا
+
+266
+00:25:51,180 --> 00:25:57,220
+يمكن لنا أن نصدق بالمعجزاتلا يمكن أمر المعجزات أمر
+
+267
+00:25:57,220 --> 00:26:04,720
+يعني كما تقولون هو غير مألوف وهو غير مشاهد ثم
+
+268
+00:26:04,720 --> 00:26:09,040
+العلم الحديث وأصول البحث يقتضي عدم التعويض على مثل
+
+269
+00:26:09,040 --> 00:26:14,100
+هذه الروايات هذه خزعبلات هذه خرافات أساطير لا يمكن
+
+270
+00:26:14,100 --> 00:26:19,120
+للعقل أن يرقى خاصة في عصر التكنولوجيا والعلم
+
+271
+00:26:19,120 --> 00:26:22,960
+والتقدم والحضارة لا يمكن لنا أن نصدق بمثل هذه
+
+272
+00:26:22,960 --> 00:26:30,080
+الترهاتكيف نرد على مثل هذه الشبهات؟ نرد عليهم يا
+
+273
+00:26:30,080 --> 00:26:36,820
+أخواتي بكل قوة ومن أرض صلبة بهذه الردود أولا نقول
+
+274
+00:26:36,820 --> 00:26:43,280
+لهم أن طرق إثبات المعجزات صحيحة قطعا كما قلت الآن
+
+275
+00:26:43,280 --> 00:26:50,710
+أن كثير منها ورد في القرآن الكريمونحن نقول في كلام
+
+276
+00:26:50,710 --> 00:26:56,410
+الله ومن أصدق من الله قيل ومن أصدق من الله حديثة
+
+277
+00:26:56,410 --> 00:27:02,370
+وبعضها ورد في الحديث المتواترة الصحيحة الواردة
+
+278
+00:27:02,370 --> 00:27:06,530
+الثابتة عن نبينا صلى الله عليه وسلم فلا يجوز لمسلم
+
+279
+00:27:06,530 --> 00:27:12,290
+أن ينكر شيئا من هذا من الذي ورد عن طريق الخبر
+
+280
+00:27:12,290 --> 00:27:18,910
+الصحيح القاطعأمر ثاني تجاهل المعجزات وعدم الإيمان
+
+281
+00:27:18,910 --> 00:27:23,490
+بها هو يعتبر الخطوة الأولى لإنكار الغيبيات فلو
+
+282
+00:27:23,490 --> 00:27:30,310
+أنكرنا هذه المعجزات سيكون ذلك مدخلا لإنكار وجود
+
+283
+00:27:30,310 --> 00:27:35,280
+الجن وجود الملائكةلإنكار القضاء والقدر، لإنكار
+
+284
+00:27:35,280 --> 00:27:38,600
+الجنة والنار، لإنكار علامات الساعة الصغرى التي
+
+285
+00:27:38,600 --> 00:27:41,840
+أخبر بها القرآن والسنة، لإنكار علامات الساعة
+
+286
+00:27:41,840 --> 00:27:46,680
+الكبرى، لإنكار البعث والحشر، لإنكار وجود الله،
+
+287
+00:27:46,680 --> 00:27:50,660
+أخيرا إذا
+
+288
+00:27:50,660 --> 00:27:54,620
+تجاهل هذه المعجزات وعدم الإيمان بها يعتبر خطوة
+
+289
+00:27:54,620 --> 00:28:00,680
+خطيرة لإنكار الغيبيةأمر آخر يمكن أن نرد به على
+
+290
+00:28:00,680 --> 00:28:07,880
+هؤلاء أن نواميس الكون بذاتها معجزات كل شيء في هذا
+
+291
+00:28:07,880 --> 00:28:15,280
+الكون هو معجز هو معجز في حد ذاته أنا معجزة وأنت
+
+292
+00:28:15,280 --> 00:28:20,460
+معجزة وهو معجز هذه الشجرة في حد ذاتها معجزة نزول
+
+293
+00:28:20,460 --> 00:28:26,190
+المطرالغيث معجزة طلوع الشمس من مغربها بهذا النظام
+
+294
+00:28:26,190 --> 00:28:33,630
+الدقيق الرتيب وغروبها في مغربها هو من المعجزات كل
+
+295
+00:28:33,630 --> 00:28:37,210
+شيء في هذا الكون وفي الأرض آيات للموقنين وفي
+
+296
+00:28:37,210 --> 00:28:42,470
+أنفسكم أفلا تبصرون هذا الإعجاز والاتقان والعناية
+
+297
+00:28:42,470 --> 00:28:48,880
+في هذه المخلوقات هو أمور معجزةفالمعجزات ليست فقط
+
+298
+00:28:48,880 --> 00:28:54,640
+فيما نتحدث عنه فيما ثبت للأنبياء عليهم السلام أمر
+
+299
+00:28:54,640 --> 00:29:01,380
+آخر وهو في غاية الأهمية أيضا أن الأجيال المتعاقبة
+
+300
+00:29:01,380 --> 00:29:08,820
+مجمعة على ثبوت المعجزات ولذلك نجد أن أهل الكتاب
+
+301
+00:29:08,820 --> 00:29:17,550
+يؤمنون بالمعجزات أهل الكتاب يهود ونصارىيؤمنون
+
+302
+00:29:17,550 --> 00:29:25,090
+بالمعجزات يؤمنون بالمعجزات فهذا
+
+303
+00:29:25,090 --> 00:29:31,250
+دليل عليهم وليس لهم دليل عليهم فالمعجزات ثابتة كما
+
+304
+00:29:31,250 --> 00:29:35,410
+قلنا في القرآن الكريم وثابتة عندهم لأنبيائهم فكيف
+
+305
+00:29:35,410 --> 00:29:39,390
+يثبتونها لأنبيائهم وينكرونها لنبينا صلى الله عليه
+
+306
+00:29:39,390 --> 00:29:48,100
+وسلم ثم لو افترضنا أن الذي يناقشنا إنسان ملحديقول
+
+307
+00:29:48,100 --> 00:29:53,640
+أنا لا أؤمن هذه غيبيات هذه خزعبلات هذه لا نؤمن بها
+
+308
+00:29:53,640 --> 00:30:00,140
+هذه الغيبيات التي ينكرها هو أصلا نفسه يؤمن
+
+309
+00:30:00,140 --> 00:30:05,500
+بالغيبيات هو نفسه يؤمن بالغيبيات فتاريخه تاريخ
+
+310
+00:30:05,500 --> 00:30:13,800
+بلاده الذي يؤمن به ويثق به ويمجده ويعظمه هو من
+
+311
+00:30:13,800 --> 00:30:20,810
+الغيبيات وهو لم يعيش هذا التاريخفكيف يؤمن بالغيب
+
+312
+00:30:20,810 --> 00:30:28,050
+هنا عنده في حقه ثم ينكر الغيب في حق الآخرين فالغيب
+
+313
+00:30:28,050 --> 00:30:36,230
+هو جزء من إيمان البشر جميعا هذا ما يمكن لنا أن نرد
+
+314
+00:30:36,230 --> 00:30:45,010
+به على منكري المعجزة تعالوا لنرى طرق ثبوت المعجزة
+
+315
+00:30:46,070 --> 00:30:51,130
+تثبت المعجزة إما بالمشاهدة أو بالخبر الصادق فإذا
+
+316
+00:30:51,130 --> 00:30:57,610
+هناك طريقان لإثبات المعجزة طريق الأول ثبوتها
+
+317
+00:30:57,610 --> 00:31:05,110
+بالمشاهدة بالمشاهدة وهو خاص بمن عاصر المعجزة وحدثت
+
+318
+00:31:05,110 --> 00:31:11,670
+أمامه اللي كان عايش في ذاك الزمان وشاهد عصى موسى
+
+319
+00:31:11,670 --> 00:31:18,000
+عليه السلام حين تحولت إلى حيةإلى أفعى تلقف ما
+
+320
+00:31:18,000 --> 00:31:21,780
+يأفكون أو شاهد عيسى عليه السلام وهو يحيي الموت
+
+321
+00:31:21,780 --> 00:31:28,520
+بإذن الله أو رأى الماء ينبع من بين أصابع النبي صلى
+
+322
+00:31:28,520 --> 00:31:34,780
+الله عليه وسلم أو رأى انشقاق القمر أو رأى حنين
+
+323
+00:31:34,780 --> 00:31:41,440
+الجذع وسمع ذلك بأذنيه فهذا ثبتت عنده المعجزة
+
+324
+00:31:41,440 --> 00:31:48,170
+بالمشاهدةهذا حصل عنده علم يقيني لا يمكن له أن ينكر
+
+325
+00:31:48,170 --> 00:31:54,190
+ذلك إلا إذا كان كافرا لكن ثبتت عنده لأنه خضعت هذه
+
+326
+00:31:54,190 --> 00:31:59,750
+المعجزة لأحد حواسه الطريق الثاني الخبر الصادق
+
+327
+00:31:59,750 --> 00:32:06,690
+فالمعجزات التي أتى بها الأنبياء عليهم السلام والتي
+
+328
+00:32:06,690 --> 00:32:11,350
+أتى بها نبينا محمد صلى الله عليه وسلم عد لهنا خاصة
+
+329
+00:32:11,350 --> 00:32:19,990
+القرأن الكريمفإن طريق ثبوتها الخبر الصادق الخبر
+
+330
+00:32:19,990 --> 00:32:24,270
+الصادق فالقرآن
+
+331
+00:32:24,270 --> 00:32:28,010
+الكريم القرآن
+
+332
+00:32:28,010 --> 00:32:33,770
+الكريم هو ما تناقلته الأجيال الألوف عن الألوف عن
+
+333
+00:32:33,770 --> 00:32:40,850
+الألوف بحيث تحيلوا العادة تواطؤهم على الكذب هذا
+
+334
+00:32:40,850 --> 00:32:45,060
+الخبر الصادق تثبت به المعجزةلا يمكن أن يتوافق
+
+335
+00:32:45,060 --> 00:32:51,300
+الناس على مر التاريخ أن يكذب هؤلاء كلهم وينسب
+
+336
+00:32:51,300 --> 00:32:58,500
+هؤلاء المعجزة لفلان فكونهم كلهم يجمعون ويروون
+
+337
+00:32:58,500 --> 00:33:06,800
+ويذكرون هذا الحدث أنه حصل للنبي مثلا هذا يؤكد ثبوت
+
+338
+00:33:06,800 --> 00:33:13,410
+المعجزة والخبر الصادق قسمان يا أخواتيألف الخبر
+
+339
+00:33:13,410 --> 00:33:18,950
+المتواتر وهذا يكون وهذا يكون في الخبر الوارد في
+
+340
+00:33:18,950 --> 00:33:23,370
+القرآن الكريم والحديث المتواتر هذا الخبر المتواتر
+
+341
+00:33:23,370 --> 00:33:27,150
+كما يرد في آية قرآنية مثلا المعجزة تأتي في آية
+
+342
+00:33:27,150 --> 00:33:32,290
+قرآنية يذكرها القرآن الكريم أو يأتي في الأحاديث
+
+343
+00:33:32,290 --> 00:33:37,450
+يعني في روايات متعددة عديدة ثبتت عن النبي صلى الله
+
+344
+00:33:37,450 --> 00:33:43,430
+عليه وسلم من هذه المعجزات انفلاق البحرعندما ضربه
+
+345
+00:33:43,430 --> 00:33:46,930
+موسى عليه السلام بعصاه هذه معجزة ذكرها القرآن
+
+346
+00:33:46,930 --> 00:33:52,410
+الكريم العصى تنقلب إلى حية خروج ناقة صالح من
+
+347
+00:33:52,410 --> 00:33:59,390
+الصخرة هذا تحدثت عنها القرآن الكريم أما السنة
+
+348
+00:33:59,390 --> 00:34:03,370
+النبوية فذكرت كثير من معجزات نبينا صلى الله عليه
+
+349
+00:34:03,370 --> 00:34:09,330
+وسلم كتكثير الطعام بين يديه وحنين الجذع إليه صلى
+
+350
+00:34:09,330 --> 00:34:10,010
+الله عليه وسلم
+
+351
+00:34:13,110 --> 00:34:19,370
+هذه لا يجوز انكارها هذه وردت في الخبر المتواتر
+
+352
+00:34:19,370 --> 00:34:24,990
+قرآن أو سنة تواترت عن نبينا صلى الله عليه وسلم من
+
+353
+00:34:24,990 --> 00:34:34,370
+الخبر الصادق أيضا رقم با سمنا الخبر الصادق وهو
+
+354
+00:34:34,370 --> 00:34:41,240
+الخبر الآتي عن طريق لم يصل إلى حد التواتريسمونه في
+
+355
+00:34:41,240 --> 00:34:49,780
+مصطلح الحديث خبر الأحد خبر الأحد ثبت عن طريق خبر
+
+356
+00:34:49,780 --> 00:34:53,820
+الأحد معجزات
+
+357
+00:34:53,820 --> 00:34:57,120
+منها مثلا حنين الجذع إلى النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم
+
+358
+00:34:57,120 --> 00:35:04,480
+فهذه يجب أن نؤمن بها فخبر الأحد عندنا نحن أهل
+
+359
+00:35:04,480 --> 00:35:09,520
+السنة والجماعة من الحديث الصحيحةلكن ليس كل أحد حتى
+
+360
+00:35:09,520 --> 00:35:14,300
+تكون الصورة واضحة ليس كل .. كل أحد .. ليس كل واحد
+
+361
+00:35:14,300 --> 00:35:20,800
+نقبل منه .. نقبل روايته ليس كل واحد نقبل روايته
+
+362
+00:35:20,800 --> 00:35:27,940
+اسمع الشافعي ماذا يقول مقرر علم أصول الفقه اسمع
+
+363
+00:35:27,940 --> 00:35:35,140
+ماذا يقول في كتابه الرسالة يقول إذا حدثت ثقة لحظ
+
+364
+00:35:35,140 --> 00:35:43,460
+مين؟ من؟الثقة إذا حدث الثقة عن الثقة حتى ينتهي إلى
+
+365
+00:35:43,460 --> 00:35:47,600
+رسول الله فهو ثابت عن رسول الله صلى الله عليه و
+
+366
+00:35:47,600 --> 00:35:53,920
+سلم لكن ركزي في الكلام مرة أخرى إذا حدث من الثقة
+
+367
+00:35:53,920 --> 00:36:01,020
+مش أي إنسان أنا قد يأتيني ثلاثون واحدا ثلاثون شخصا
+
+368
+00:36:01,020 --> 00:36:07,270
+قد يأتيني ثلاثون يقولوني بخبر لكن أنا أكذبهملأنني
+
+369
+00:36:07,270 --> 00:36:12,490
+أعرف عندهم التلاعب والكذب والاحتيال وغيرها لكن قد
+
+370
+00:36:12,490 --> 00:36:17,950
+ياتيني واحد هو عندي ثقة أقبل مقولته في خبر لعله
+
+371
+00:36:17,950 --> 00:36:23,490
+أعظم من الخبر الذي أكبر به الثلاثون إذا
+
+372
+00:36:23,490 --> 00:36:28,810
+حدث الثقة عن الثقة ولو رجعنا لتعريف الحديث الصحيح
+
+373
+00:36:28,810 --> 00:36:34,190
+سنجده متطابق مع كلام الشافع ما هو الحديث الصحيح؟
+
+374
+00:36:34,190 --> 00:36:43,080
+ما هو؟ما رواه العدل الضابط عن مثله إلى منتهاء من
+
+375
+00:36:43,080 --> 00:36:48,840
+غير شذوذ ولا علة ما رواه العدل الضابط الثقة يعني
+
+376
+00:36:48,840 --> 00:36:57,900
+الثقة إذا حدث الثقة عن الثقة فإذا حدثنا نقل لنا
+
+377
+00:36:57,900 --> 00:37:04,320
+عمر بن الخطاب حديث جبريل بينما نحن جلوس عند رسول
+
+378
+00:37:04,320 --> 00:37:09,110
+الله صلى الله عليه وسلماذ طال علينا رجل شديد وبياد
+
+379
+00:37:09,110 --> 00:37:13,110
+السياب، شديد وسواد الشعب، هذا حديث أحد لم يرويه
+
+380
+00:37:13,110 --> 00:37:17,310
+إلا عمرو بن الخطاب، حديث إنما الأعمال وبالنيات، هو
+
+381
+00:37:17,310 --> 00:37:22,190
+حديث أحد، هو حديث أحد، هذا الحديث، الحديث الأول
+
+382
+00:37:22,190 --> 00:37:28,370
+عده العلماء الإسلام كلهبدليل آخر الحديث أتدرون من
+
+383
+00:37:28,370 --> 00:37:31,590
+السائق اللي قالوا الله ورسوله أعلام قال هذا جبريل
+
+384
+00:37:31,590 --> 00:37:35,290
+جاءكم يعلمكم أمور دينكم أما الحديث إنما الأعمال
+
+385
+00:37:35,290 --> 00:37:39,530
+بالنيات عده العلماء منهم من عده نصف الإسلام ومنهم
+
+386
+00:37:39,530 --> 00:37:48,410
+من عده ثلث الإسلام نعم نصف الإسلام نصف الإسلام
+
+387
+00:37:48,410 --> 00:37:55,080
+إنما الأعمال بالنيات وإنما لكل مرء ما نوىفعمر بن
+
+388
+00:37:55,080 --> 00:37:58,700
+الخطاب ثقة عندنا ذكر ذلك عن النبي صلى الله عليه
+
+389
+00:37:58,700 --> 00:38:03,480
+وسلم نقبل منه هذا الحديث نقبله نقبله عنه رضوان
+
+390
+00:38:03,480 --> 00:38:08,360
+الله عليه قال شيخ الإسلام ابن تيمية لهذا كان جمهور
+
+391
+00:38:08,360 --> 00:38:13,590
+أهل العلم من جميع الطواقف على أن خبر الواحدإذا
+
+392
+00:38:13,590 --> 00:38:18,710
+تلقته الأمة بالقبول تصديقًا له أو عملًا به أنه
+
+393
+00:38:18,710 --> 00:38:25,150
+يوجب العلم يوجب العلم يعني يوجب الاعتقاد به يوجب
+
+394
+00:38:25,150 --> 00:38:31,510
+الاعتقاد يوجب العلم أو يوجب العمل حديث الأحد يوجب
+
+395
+00:38:31,510 --> 00:38:35,250
+العلم والعمل يوجب العقيدة والعمل بما ورد في هذا
+
+396
+00:38:35,250 --> 00:38:35,770
+الحديث
+
+397
+00:38:38,740 --> 00:38:44,240
+هذا أمر يجب أن يكون جليا واضحا بالنسبة لنا أن
+
+398
+00:38:44,240 --> 00:38:50,260
+المعجزة تثبت بطريقين تثبت بالمشاهدة وتثبت بالخبر
+
+399
+00:38:50,260 --> 00:38:55,860
+الصادق الخبر الصادق ينقسم إلى قسمين الخبر المتواتر
+
+400
+00:38:55,860 --> 00:39:00,280
+القرآن الكريم، آيات القرآن الكريم التي ذكرت هذه
+
+401
+00:39:00,280 --> 00:39:04,760
+المعجزات والحديث
+
+402
+00:39:04,760 --> 00:39:11,420
+المتواترالخبر المتواتر الذي ذكر هذه المعجزات سواء
+
+403
+00:39:11,420 --> 00:39:16,020
+القرآن الكريم أو الحديث متواترة وأيضا الخبر الصادق
+
+404
+00:39:16,020 --> 00:39:20,800
+الآتي عن طريق لم يصل إلى درجة التواتر وهذا ما يسمى
+
+405
+00:39:20,800 --> 00:39:24,420
+خبر الأحد أيضا تثبت به العقيدة وتثبت بالتالي به
+
+406
+00:39:24,420 --> 00:39:29,420
+هذه المعجزات التي ثبتت للنبي صلى الله عليه وسلم
+
+407
+00:39:29,420 --> 00:39:35,060
+تعالوا لنرى خامسا الفرق بين المعجزة وغيرها من
+
+408
+00:39:35,060 --> 00:39:42,330
+خوارق العاداتهناك فرق بين المعجزة وبين غيرها من
+
+409
+00:39:42,330 --> 00:39:47,130
+الخوارق فمعجزات الرسول والأنبياء تختلف عن الخوارق
+
+410
+00:39:47,130 --> 00:39:52,590
+التي تحدث على يد غيرهم مثل السحر وغيره واحد
+
+411
+00:39:52,590 --> 00:39:57,050
+المعجزات تسلم عن المعارضة واعتقد أن هذا الأمر أصبح
+
+412
+00:39:57,050 --> 00:40:02,750
+واضحا سالم عن المعارضة لا يستطيع أحد أن يأتي بمثل
+
+413
+00:40:02,750 --> 00:40:09,090
+هذه المعجزةلا يستطيع أحد ولو تمكن مشركون مكة أن
+
+414
+00:40:09,090 --> 00:40:12,770
+يكذبوا النبي وأن يأتوا بمثل القرآن وقد تحداهم
+
+415
+00:40:12,770 --> 00:40:17,990
+القرآن أو أن يبطلوا أي معجزة من معجزاته لفعلوا ذلك
+
+416
+00:40:17,990 --> 00:40:28,350
+حاول مسيلما كما ذكرنا لكنه لم يفلح بل جاء ما فعله
+
+417
+00:40:28,350 --> 00:40:35,660
+مكذبا له جاء مخزيا له جاء إهانة لهإتنين المعجزات
+
+418
+00:40:35,660 --> 00:40:42,040
+تأتي بدون كسب من الأنبياء بدون كسب فالله تعالى هو
+
+419
+00:40:42,040 --> 00:40:46,740
+الذي يمدهم بها وهذا ما ذكرناه قلنا إنه يخلقه الله
+
+420
+00:40:46,740 --> 00:40:51,620
+هي من فعل الله عز وجل أما الخوارق الأخرى فتأتي على
+
+421
+00:40:51,620 --> 00:40:57,280
+يد أصحابها بعمل وجهد وتعلم منهم سواء السحر أو
+
+422
+00:40:57,280 --> 00:41:04,380
+الشعوذة أو الكهانة هذه تكون إيه؟تكون بسعي وعمل و
+
+423
+00:41:04,380 --> 00:41:13,840
+تعلم من أصحابها تلاتة المعجزات تصدر عن رجال عرفوا
+
+424
+00:41:13,840 --> 00:41:20,720
+بالتقوى هم من أهل الصلاح هم من أهل الصلاح هذا بعكس
+
+425
+00:41:20,720 --> 00:41:26,290
+خوارق الإعادات إنما تحصل على يد الصحرةوالمشعوذين
+
+426
+00:41:26,290 --> 00:41:33,650
+والكذابين الأفاكين الذين يزعمون أنهم يعلمون الغيب
+
+427
+00:41:33,650 --> 00:41:40,110
+ويتكسبون من وراء هذه الكبائر التي يرتكبونها فهذه
+
+428
+00:41:40,110 --> 00:41:44,850
+لا تصدر إلا من رجال لا يعرف عنهم إلا الكذب والخداع
+
+429
+00:41:45,620 --> 00:41:51,400
+هكذا هي شهرتهم بين الناس، لكنهم يضللون الناس بما
+
+430
+00:41:51,400 --> 00:41:56,100
+اتعلموا من مهارات وخفة
+
+431
+00:41:56,100 --> 00:42:04,280
+يد ويتكسبون، هم يعيشون على خداع الناسوتضليلهم
+
+432
+00:42:04,280 --> 00:42:10,640
+والاتيان بأفعال يعني يخيلون للناس أنها أفعال غريبة
+
+433
+00:42:10,640 --> 00:42:16,520
+والناس من جهلهم يصدقونهم ويتبعونهم في مثل هذه
+
+434
+00:42:16,520 --> 00:42:20,460
+الترهات والخداعات
+
+435
+00:42:20,460 --> 00:42:28,620
+التي تحصل لهم سنقف الآن مع خوارق العادات التي تحدث
+
+436
+00:42:28,620 --> 00:42:34,550
+لبعض البشرأولها الإهانة لعل معظمها تحدثنا عنها لكن
+
+437
+00:42:34,550 --> 00:42:39,630
+لنكمل الصورة الإهانة هي أمر خارق للعادة يظهر على
+
+438
+00:42:39,630 --> 00:42:45,590
+يد فاسق أو كافر كاذب مدعن للنبوة كما قلنا كما حصل
+
+439
+00:42:45,590 --> 00:42:50,630
+لمسيلم الكذاب حين بسقى في عين أعور لتبرق فعميت
+
+440
+00:42:50,630 --> 00:42:57,170
+الصحيحة فعميت الصحيحة هذه تسمى إهانة تسمى إهانة
+
+441
+00:42:57,170 --> 00:43:02,570
+اتنين الاستدراجالاستدراج، لاحظ القاسم المشترك بين
+
+442
+00:43:02,570 --> 00:43:06,230
+كل هذه المصطلحات، الإهانة أمر خارق للعادة،
+
+443
+00:43:06,230 --> 00:43:11,890
+الاستدراج أمر خارق للعادة، يظهر على يد فاسق أو
+
+444
+00:43:11,890 --> 00:43:17,910
+كافرمدعن للألهية كما يكون على يد الدجال على يد
+
+445
+00:43:17,910 --> 00:43:22,470
+المسيح الدجال هي الأمور الخارقة للعادة التي تحصل
+
+446
+00:43:22,470 --> 00:43:26,670
+على يد الدجال هي أيضا من فعل الله تبارك وتعالى
+
+447
+00:43:26,670 --> 00:43:32,090
+لكنها ليست معجزات انما نسميها استدراج لأنه إنسان
+
+448
+00:43:32,090 --> 00:43:37,570
+كاذب كافر يدعي النبوة يدعي الالهية يدعي الربوبية
+
+449
+00:43:37,570 --> 00:43:42,130
+لذلك الله عز وجل يزيده في طغيانههذا الحديث يبين
+
+450
+00:43:42,130 --> 00:43:47,830
+لنا هذه الحقيقة إذا رأيت الله يعطي العبد ما يحب و
+
+451
+00:43:47,830 --> 00:43:54,630
+هو مقيم على معاصيه فإنما ذلك له منه استدراج ثم تلى
+
+452
+00:43:54,630 --> 00:43:58,050
+النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم هذه الآية لاحظي الآية
+
+453
+00:43:58,050 --> 00:44:05,770
+فلمّا نسوا ما ذكروا به فتحنا عليهم أبواب كل شيء
+
+454
+00:44:05,770 --> 00:44:12,620
+الإنسان بتوقع النتيجةنتيجة النسيان عندما يهمل
+
+455
+00:44:12,620 --> 00:44:18,120
+الناس آيات الله عز وجل ويكذبون رسوله ولا يعملون
+
+456
+00:44:18,120 --> 00:44:23,320
+بكتابه أن يغلق الله عز وجل عليهم أبواب كل شيء لكن
+
+457
+00:44:23,320 --> 00:44:28,320
+انتبهي الآية فلما نسوا ما ذكروا به فتحنا عليهم
+
+458
+00:44:28,320 --> 00:44:35,010
+أبواب كل شيء استضاجحتى إذا فرحوا بما قوتوا أخذناهم
+
+459
+00:44:35,010 --> 00:44:41,190
+بغتة فإذا هم مبلسون كما في قوله تعالى ونستدرجهم من
+
+460
+00:44:41,190 --> 00:44:47,210
+حيث لا يعلمون وأملي لهم إن كيدي متين فهذا يسمى إيه
+
+461
+00:44:47,210 --> 00:44:54,930
+يسمى استدراج الأمر الثالث مصطلح ثالث المعونة هي
+
+462
+00:44:54,930 --> 00:45:00,990
+أمر خارق للعادةلحظة أمر خارق للعادة أيضا يظهر على
+
+463
+00:45:00,990 --> 00:45:07,490
+يد بعض العوام تخليصا لهم من شدة تجد أن أم مثلا في
+
+464
+00:45:07,490 --> 00:45:13,410
+البيت تسمع صراخ ابنها فإذا بخزانة الملابس قد وقعت
+
+465
+00:45:13,410 --> 00:45:21,310
+على ابنها تدخل الغرفة ترفع هذه الخزانة وهي مليئة
+
+466
+00:45:21,310 --> 00:45:23,090
+بالملابس ثقيلة الوزن
+
+467
+00:45:25,720 --> 00:45:30,760
+دون أن تعرف كيف رفعتها تحدث نفسها بعد رفع الخزانة
+
+468
+00:45:30,760 --> 00:45:37,260
+كيف تمكنت من رفعها لا تعلم ذلك او ان رجلا يرى ابنه
+
+469
+00:45:37,260 --> 00:45:44,110
+قد يعني كادت سيارة ان تصدمهفتجده .. تجديه يقفز
+
+470
+00:45:44,110 --> 00:45:50,510
+فيختطف ابنه من أمام السيارة بسرعة هائلة لا يتصور
+
+471
+00:45:50,510 --> 00:45:55,030
+أن يحصل .. أن تحصل هذه القدرة له في الوضع الطبيعي
+
+472
+00:45:55,030 --> 00:45:59,930
+و في الحالة الطبيعية هذه تسمى إيه؟ تسمى معونة ..
+
+473
+00:45:59,930 --> 00:46:08,490
+تسمى معونة أربع الإرهاص أيضا أمر خارق للعادةلحظة،
+
+474
+00:46:08,490 --> 00:46:15,430
+أمر خارق للعادة، يظهر على يد نبي، بيحصل للنبي، لكن
+
+475
+00:46:15,430 --> 00:46:21,370
+متى؟ قبل النبوة، قبل بعثته كتخضير الغمام لنبينا
+
+476
+00:46:21,370 --> 00:46:25,070
+محمد صلى الله عليه وسلم، خمسة، السحر
+
+477
+00:46:27,800 --> 00:46:33,140
+أمر خارق للعادة هو صحيح يعني في نظر بعض الناس هي
+
+478
+00:46:33,140 --> 00:46:39,480
+قواعد تكتسب خفة في اليد كدا اه تكتسب بالتعلم يقتضر
+
+479
+00:46:39,480 --> 00:46:44,680
+بها على أفعال غريبة بيستطيع صاحبها اللي اتعلم هذه
+
+480
+00:46:44,680 --> 00:46:52,040
+القواعد وهذه الفلون ان يفعل ما يستطيع ان يفرق بين
+
+481
+00:46:52,040 --> 00:46:58,920
+الرجل وزوجهيستطيع أن يجعل الأم تكره ابنها أو زوجها
+
+482
+00:46:58,920 --> 00:47:04,420
+أو بنتهايستطيع أن يفرق بين الإخوة السحر ومن شر
+
+483
+00:47:04,420 --> 00:47:09,660
+النفاثات في العقد بالسحر أي لأ هي قواعد يمكن لأي
+
+484
+00:47:09,660 --> 00:47:14,120
+واحد أن يتعلمها لكنها غير سالمة للمعارضة غير سالمة
+
+485
+00:47:14,120 --> 00:47:20,180
+عن المعارضة يمكن لساحر آخر أن يبطلها بل الله تبارك
+
+486
+00:47:20,180 --> 00:47:24,880
+وتعالى يبطله كما أبطل سحر من سحر فرعون أي عليه من
+
+487
+00:47:24,880 --> 00:47:30,350
+الله ما يستحق ستة الكهانةالتنبؤ بالمغيبات، لا دليل
+
+488
+00:47:30,350 --> 00:47:36,150
+عليه، التنبؤ، احيانا يصيب، التكافن يعني، كهانة،
+
+489
+00:47:36,150 --> 00:47:39,450
+ادعاء علم الغيب، ادعاء علم الغيب، قراية الفنجان،
+
+490
+00:47:39,450 --> 00:47:47,370
+الضرب بالرملكهانة اي نعم قراية الفنجان الأبراج
+
+491
+00:47:47,370 --> 00:47:52,470
+برجك اليوم وحفظك اليوم وما إلى ذلك وكلها حقيقة
+
+492
+00:47:52,470 --> 00:47:56,090
+تتناقض مع ركن عظيم من أركان الإيمان الإيمان بهذه
+
+493
+00:47:56,090 --> 00:48:00,830
+الأمور حفظك اليوم أو قراية الفنجان أو البرج أو ما
+
+494
+00:48:00,830 --> 00:48:05,210
+إلى ذلك هذه كلها تتناقض مع ركن الإيمان بقضاء الله
+
+495
+00:48:05,210 --> 00:48:09,880
+وقدرهالكهانة هي التنبؤ بالمغيبات قد يأتي شيء منها
+
+496
+00:48:09,880 --> 00:48:15,640
+شيء صادق يعني لكن كثير منها كذب المنجمون ولو صدقوا
+
+497
+00:48:15,640 --> 00:48:21,120
+الشعوذة هي خفة في اليد هذه مصطلحات أحببنا أن نضعها
+
+498
+00:48:21,120 --> 00:48:26,080
+بين أيدينا خفة في اليد بواسطتها يرى الشخص أشياء
+
+499
+00:48:26,080 --> 00:48:30,780
+على أنها حقيقية وليست كذلك طبعا يمكن أن يكون
+
+500
+00:48:30,780 --> 00:48:36,260
+الساحر ساحر كاهن ومشعوذ في نفس الوقت ساحروكاهن
+
+501
+00:48:36,260 --> 00:48:42,480
+ومشاور من ذلك سحرت فرعون فقد كانوا عندهم خفة في
+
+502
+00:48:42,480 --> 00:48:48,180
+اليد فحركوا الحبال حركوا الحبال فحسبها حتى موسى
+
+503
+00:48:48,180 --> 00:48:52,900
+عليه السلام أنها أفاعي فأوجس في نفسه خيفة موسى
+
+504
+00:48:52,900 --> 00:48:57,840
+قلنا لا تخاف ألقي ما في يمينك فلمّا ألقى كانت
+
+505
+00:48:57,840 --> 00:49:01,580
+المعجزة الحقيقية تحولت العصر الحقيقية إلى أفع
+
+506
+00:49:01,580 --> 00:49:11,020
+حقيقية تلقفوا ما يأفكونإذا هذه مصطلحات خفة
+
+507
+00:49:11,020 --> 00:49:18,880
+اليد قد تحصل في ما يسمى السرك في هذه الأيام، بعض
+
+508
+00:49:18,880 --> 00:49:22,660
+الحركات البهلوانية التي يؤديها الناس، أنا أرى على
+
+509
+00:49:22,660 --> 00:49:28,760
+ال face مثلا صور من يجلس في الهواءو يتكي على عصى
+
+510
+00:49:28,760 --> 00:49:31,280
+كده و مافيش تحته شيء و الناس بيجي و بيحطوا إيديهم
+
+511
+00:49:31,280 --> 00:49:34,940
+كده تحته مافيش .. مافيش شيء تحته يتكي على عصى و هو
+
+512
+00:49:34,940 --> 00:49:39,040
+مرفوع عن الأرض مرفوع متر عن الأرض ها دي شاو ذا هو
+
+513
+00:49:39,040 --> 00:49:42,720
+يخيل إليكي في خدعة بيكون في الموضوع بيكون في خدعة
+
+514
+00:49:42,720 --> 00:49:51,620
+في الموضوع أيه نعم طيب آخر مصطلح معناه الكرامة هي
+
+515
+00:49:51,620 --> 00:49:59,090
+أيضا أمر خارق للعادةتظهر على يد رقز معياه ليس
+
+516
+00:49:59,090 --> 00:50:04,550
+مدّعي للنبوة، على يد ولي صالح تقيه، عارف بالله
+
+517
+00:50:04,550 --> 00:50:10,950
+وصفاته، مواضب على اقتهاد، مجتنب للمعاصي، معرض عن
+
+518
+00:50:10,950 --> 00:50:16,370
+الإنهماك في اللذات والشهواتوهذا أمر مشهود معروف
+
+519
+00:50:16,370 --> 00:50:22,430
+لأولياء الله تبارك وتعالى، الله عز وجل يحدث لهؤلاء
+
+520
+00:50:22,430 --> 00:50:27,790
+أو لبعضهم، ليس شرطًا كرامات، كرامة منه سبحانه
+
+521
+00:50:27,790 --> 00:50:33,780
+وتعالى، تحدث لهم أمور خارقة للعادةتحدث لهم أمور
+
+522
+00:50:33,780 --> 00:50:37,760
+خارقة للعادة من ذلك مثلا ما كان لمريم عليه السلام
+
+523
+00:50:37,760 --> 00:50:44,160
+مريم عليه السلام عندما كان يأتيها زكريا يدخل عليها
+
+524
+00:50:44,160 --> 00:50:48,740
+فيجد عندها فاكهة الشتاء في الصيف وفاكهة الصيف في
+
+525
+00:50:48,740 --> 00:50:53,200
+الشتاء ادنى لك هذا قالت هو من عند الله هذه كرامة
+
+526
+00:50:53,200 --> 00:50:59,860
+هذه كرامة لمريم عليه السلام من ذلك مثلا
+
+527
+00:51:02,700 --> 00:51:07,100
+مثلا عمر بن الخطاب رضوان الله عليه وهو يخطب على
+
+528
+00:51:07,100 --> 00:51:11,640
+المنبر قال يا سارية الجبل يا سارية الجبل يا سارية
+
+529
+00:51:11,640 --> 00:51:19,560
+الجبلجاءه بعد ذلك من كان في المعركة وقال له يا
+
+530
+00:51:19,560 --> 00:51:25,140
+أمير المؤمنين سمعنا صوتك في المعركة ونحن في
+
+531
+00:51:25,140 --> 00:51:29,520
+المعركة يا ساريا الجبل يا ساريا الجبر يا ساريا
+
+532
+00:51:29,520 --> 00:51:35,680
+الجبل فاستدرنا فإذا بالعدو قد التف من خلفنا فجعلنا
+
+533
+00:51:35,680 --> 00:51:40,620
+الجبل في ظهورنا وقاتلنا العدو فانتصرنا عليهم كانت
+
+534
+00:51:40,620 --> 00:51:46,560
+هذه كرامة ولم يكن يومهايعني الجوالات ولم يكن هذه
+
+535
+00:51:46,560 --> 00:51:51,680
+الألات الحديثة التي يعني تكثر في زماننا لم تكن
+
+536
+00:51:52,580 --> 00:51:58,040
+موجودة هذه كرامة لعمر بن الخطاب رضوان الله عليه
+
+537
+00:51:58,040 --> 00:52:04,100
+فالكرامات هذا امر يعني معروف في حق انبياء الله في
+
+538
+00:52:04,100 --> 00:52:07,520
+حق الاولياء والصالحين في حق الاولياء والصالحين كما
+
+539
+00:52:07,520 --> 00:52:11,520
+قال تعالى الا ان اولياء الله لا خوف عليهم ولا هم
+
+540
+00:52:11,520 --> 00:52:16,240
+يحزنون الذين آمنوا وكانوا يتقون لهم البشرة في
+
+541
+00:52:16,240 --> 00:52:21,080
+الحياة الدنيا وفي الآخرة لهم البشرة لهم البشرة في
+
+542
+00:52:21,080 --> 00:52:27,020
+الحياة الدنياوفي الآخرة لا تبديل لكلمات الله ذلك
+
+543
+00:52:27,020 --> 00:52:33,000
+هو الفوز العظيم فهذه مصطلحات هذه مصطلحات عرفنا كل
+
+544
+00:52:33,000 --> 00:52:38,000
+واحدة منها هي كلها أمور خارقة للعادة كلها أمور
+
+545
+00:52:38,000 --> 00:52:44,340
+خارقة للعادة لكن هناك فرق بينها وبين المعجزة
+
+546
+00:52:44,340 --> 00:52:50,580
+تعالوا لنرى الفرق بين المعجزة والكرامة في هذه
+
+547
+00:52:50,580 --> 00:52:59,620
+الأمور الآتيةواحد المعجزة مقارنة لدعوى النبوة كما
+
+548
+00:52:59,620 --> 00:53:05,180
+قلنا المعجزة تكون في زمن النبوة يأتي
+
+549
+00:53:07,040 --> 00:53:11,800
+النبي فيدعي النبوة ثم تكون المعجزة تأتي تأيدا له
+
+550
+00:53:11,800 --> 00:53:16,800
+أما الكرامة فهي غير مقارنة لها فصاحب الكرامة أصلا
+
+551
+00:53:16,800 --> 00:53:21,800
+لا يدعي نبوة بل هو متبع للنبي متمسك بشرعه فلا
+
+552
+00:53:21,800 --> 00:53:26,600
+تلتبس عند إذ الكرامة بالمعجزة الكرامة شيء والمعجزة
+
+553
+00:53:26,600 --> 00:53:27,260
+شيء آخر
+
+554
+00:53:32,580 --> 00:53:38,680
+المعجزة مقدورة للأنبياء متى أرادوها، إما باختيارهم
+
+555
+00:53:38,680 --> 00:53:46,510
+أو باقتراح الأمة، فالمعجزة تأتي مؤيدة للنبيأحياناً
+
+556
+00:53:46,510 --> 00:53:50,170
+يعني كما حصل كما قلنا للنبي صلى الله عليه وسلم طلب
+
+557
+00:53:50,170 --> 00:53:56,930
+منه كفار قريش أن يشق لهم القمر أو أن كما حصل مع
+
+558
+00:53:56,930 --> 00:54:00,650
+عيسى عليه السلام طلب منه النصارى أن ينزل الله عز
+
+559
+00:54:00,650 --> 00:54:05,820
+وجل عليهم مائدة فأنزل الله عز وجل هذه المائدةأما
+
+560
+00:54:05,820 --> 00:54:11,140
+الكرامة فقد يأتي بها الولي وقد لا يأتي بها، وقد لا
+
+561
+00:54:11,140 --> 00:54:15,480
+يأتي بها، فيمكن له أن تحصل له ويمكن أن لا تحصل هذه
+
+562
+00:54:15,480 --> 00:54:21,120
+الكرامة، ليس بالضرورة، فالولي هو مسير من الله
+
+563
+00:54:21,120 --> 00:54:26,620
+تبارك وتعالىوقد يكرمه الله تبارك وتعالى بالكرامة
+
+564
+00:54:26,620 --> 00:54:32,040
+أو لا يكرمه أما المعجزة فهي تأتي تأييدا للنبي صلى
+
+565
+00:54:32,040 --> 00:54:36,060
+الله عليه وسلم كما قلنا تأتي للأنبياء أو تكون
+
+566
+00:54:36,060 --> 00:54:42,940
+للأنبياء إما باختيارهم أو باقتراح الأمة أن يطلبها
+
+567
+00:54:42,940 --> 00:54:48,900
+الكفار فتأتي المعجزة تأييدا لهم تلاتة الأنبياء
+
+568
+00:54:48,900 --> 00:54:54,190
+يحتجون بمعجزاتهم على المشركينلأن قلوبهم قاسية،
+
+569
+00:54:54,190 --> 00:54:59,370
+يعني يمكن للنبي أن يقول للمشركين صدقي في دعوية
+
+570
+00:54:59,370 --> 00:55:04,030
+للنبوة هذه المعجزات التي يؤيدون الله تبارك وتعالى
+
+571
+00:55:04,030 --> 00:55:10,030
+بها، أما الأولياءفليس لهم أن يحتجوا بالكرامة إلا
+
+572
+00:55:10,030 --> 00:55:16,690
+على نفسهم فأن يقول للنفس اهدأي اطمئني اوقني لا
+
+573
+00:55:16,690 --> 00:55:22,890
+تضطربي لا تجزعي يكفيك ما امن الله تعالى عليكي من
+
+574
+00:55:22,890 --> 00:55:27,150
+هذه الكرامات التي يكلمك بها فالأنبياء يحتجون
+
+575
+00:55:27,150 --> 00:55:31,940
+بالمعجزات على المشركينأما الأولياء فيحتجون
+
+576
+00:55:31,940 --> 00:55:37,920
+بالقرامة على أنفسهم أمر أمر رابع وأخير الأنبياء
+
+577
+00:55:37,920 --> 00:55:43,500
+كلما زيدت لهم المعجزات يكونوا أتم لمعانيهم وفضلهم
+
+578
+00:55:43,500 --> 00:55:51,240
+وهذا صحيح فالنبي كلما زادت معجزاته كلما ظهر صدقه
+
+579
+00:55:51,240 --> 00:55:56,420
+وتحققت نبوته في نفس أتباعه
+
+580
+00:55:58,480 --> 00:56:05,280
+وحتى قد تكون كثرة المعجزات حافظة للتصديق لكثير من
+
+581
+00:56:05,280 --> 00:56:11,120
+الناس به أما أصحاب الكرامات من الأولياء فكلما زيدت
+
+582
+00:56:12,150 --> 00:56:16,290
+في كرامتهم يكون وجلهم أكثر و هذا حال الأولياء
+
+583
+00:56:16,290 --> 00:56:20,390
+أولياء الله تبارك وتعالى فكل ما أكرمهم الله تبارك
+
+584
+00:56:20,390 --> 00:56:25,110
+وتعالى بالكرامات خافوا الله تبارك وتعالى وكان
+
+585
+00:56:25,110 --> 00:56:30,470
+وجلهم أكثر وحذرا من أن يستدرجهم الله تبارك وتعالى
+
+586
+00:56:30,470 --> 00:56:36,970
+وأن يكون ذلك سببا لسقوط منزلتهم عنده سبحانه وتعالى
+
+587
+00:56:37,310 --> 00:56:43,330
+هذه أربعة أمور يعني فرقنا بها بين الكرامة وبين
+
+588
+00:56:43,330 --> 00:56:48,010
+المعجزة المعجزة مقارنة لدعوى النبوة أما الكرامة
+
+589
+00:56:48,010 --> 00:56:51,810
+فهي غير مقارنة لها المعجزة مخدورة للأنبياء متى
+
+590
+00:56:51,810 --> 00:56:56,190
+أرادوها الكرامة قد يأتي بها الولي وقد لا يأتي بها
+
+591
+00:56:56,190 --> 00:57:00,350
+تلاتة الأنبياء يحتجون بمعجزاتهم على المشركين أما
+
+592
+00:57:00,350 --> 00:57:06,840
+الأولياء فيحتجون بكراماتهم على أنفسهمأربع الأنبياء
+
+593
+00:57:06,840 --> 00:57:11,280
+كلما زيدت لهم المعجزات يكون ذلك أتم لمعانيهم
+
+594
+00:57:11,280 --> 00:57:16,800
+وفضلهم أما أصحاب الكرامات فكلما زيدت كرامتهم يكون
+
+595
+00:57:16,800 --> 00:57:22,380
+خوفهم ووجلهم أكثر من الله تبارك وتعالى تبقى النقطة
+
+596
+00:57:22,380 --> 00:57:28,400
+السادسة وهي مناسبة كل معجزة للعصر الذي وقعت فيه
+
+597
+00:57:28,400 --> 00:57:35,820
+فمن عظيم حكمة الله تبارك وتعالىأن جعل معجزات رسوله
+
+598
+00:57:35,820 --> 00:57:41,880
+من جنس ما أبدع فيه القوم المرسل إليهم إمعانا في
+
+599
+00:57:41,880 --> 00:57:47,660
+الحجة وقطعا للعذر فلو جعلت معجزة الرسول في أمر
+
+600
+00:57:47,660 --> 00:57:56,120
+يجهله من أرسل إليهم لكان لهم العذر في عدم إحسان ما
+
+601
+00:57:56,120 --> 00:58:03,300
+يجهلونه لذلككل نبي أيده الله تبارك وتعالى بمعجزات
+
+602
+00:58:03,300 --> 00:58:08,300
+من قبيل ما اشتهر به قومه فمثلا موسى عليه السلام
+
+603
+00:58:08,300 --> 00:58:14,660
+أرسل في قوم كان السحر شائعا بينهم فأيده الله تبارك
+
+604
+00:58:14,660 --> 00:58:22,680
+وتعالى بمعجزات يعني فقط ما اشتهر به قومه فقد اشتهر
+
+605
+00:58:22,680 --> 00:58:28,200
+قومه بالسحر قوم موسى اشتهروا بالسحرفاتاه الله
+
+606
+00:58:28,200 --> 00:58:32,440
+تبارك وتعالى معجزات فاقت قدرة السحرة على أن يأتوا
+
+607
+00:58:32,440 --> 00:58:38,140
+بمثله فلما رأى السحرة ما كان لموسى ما كان تأييدا
+
+608
+00:58:38,140 --> 00:58:43,000
+لموسى من المعجزات التي أجراها الله عز وجل على يديه
+
+609
+00:58:43,000 --> 00:58:50,780
+كان ذلك سببا ودافعا لإيمانهم به و بربه تبارك
+
+610
+00:58:50,780 --> 00:58:56,880
+وتعالىالمعجزات من قبيل عصى موسى تتحول إلى أفعى أو
+
+611
+00:58:56,880 --> 00:59:01,480
+أن يخرج يده فتخرج بيضاء من غير سوء هذه الأمور لا
+
+612
+00:59:01,480 --> 00:59:07,680
+يستطيعها السحرة وليست من قبيل السحر الذي اشتهر به
+
+613
+00:59:07,680 --> 00:59:15,300
+قوم موسى عليه السلام عيسى عليه السلامكان قومه قد
+
+614
+00:59:15,300 --> 00:59:20,580
+اشتهروا بفن الطب كان الطب شائعا فيهم فاقتضت حكمته
+
+615
+00:59:20,580 --> 00:59:25,720
+تبارك وتعالى ان جعل كثيرا من معجزاته من قبيل أعمال
+
+616
+00:59:25,720 --> 00:59:31,460
+أهل الطب نعم فأبرأ الله تبارك وتعالى على يديه
+
+617
+00:59:31,460 --> 00:59:39,260
+الأبرص وهو مرض جلدي ينتشر في جلد الإنسانلم يكن
+
+618
+00:59:39,260 --> 00:59:44,400
+الأطباء يستطيعوا ذلك في زمن عيسى عليه السلام فكان
+
+619
+00:59:44,400 --> 00:59:48,960
+عيسى عليه السلام يمسح على الأبرص فيعود سليما
+
+620
+00:59:48,960 --> 00:59:55,080
+والأكمه الذي ولد أعمى أصلا هو ولد أعمى والطب لا
+
+621
+00:59:55,080 --> 00:59:59,410
+يستطيع معالجة مثل هذا النوعفكان عيسى عليه السلام
+
+622
+00:59:59,410 --> 01:00:05,510
+يمسح على وجه الأعمى على عينيه فيعود مبصرا و أحيا
+
+623
+01:00:05,510 --> 01:00:12,050
+الموت عيسى عليه السلام من معجزات إحياء الموت بإذن
+
+624
+01:00:12,050 --> 01:00:16,710
+الله وتعالى وهذه أمور لا يستطيعها الطبولازال لا
+
+625
+01:00:16,710 --> 01:00:22,710
+يستطيعها فهي معجزة خص الله عز وجل بها سيدنا عيسى
+
+626
+01:00:22,710 --> 01:00:27,910
+عليه السلام هذه معجزات أمور خارقة للعادة يعجز
+
+627
+01:00:27,910 --> 01:00:33,850
+البشر عن أن يأتوا بمثلها وكذلك
+
+628
+01:00:33,850 --> 01:00:38,050
+نبينا صلى الله عليه وسلم نختم بنبينا عليه الصلاة
+
+629
+01:00:38,050 --> 01:00:43,310
+والسلام فقد بُعثوا في قوم كانوا أهل فصاحة وبيان
+
+630
+01:00:44,490 --> 01:00:47,910
+وكان صلى الله عليه وسلم أميا كما هو معلوم لا يقرأ
+
+631
+01:00:47,910 --> 01:00:52,810
+ولا يكتب فلما بعثه الله عز وجل جعل الله عز وجل
+
+632
+01:00:52,810 --> 01:00:58,050
+أعظم معجزاته من جنس ما نبغ فيه العرب وهو الكلام
+
+633
+01:00:58,050 --> 01:01:03,970
+الفصيح فآتاه الله القرآنأعظم معجزات نبينا المعجزة
+
+634
+01:01:03,970 --> 01:01:09,070
+الكبرى وتحدى الله عز و جل بها العرب أن يأتوا بمثله
+
+635
+01:01:09,070 --> 01:01:13,210
+أن يأتوا بمثل القرآن الذي أنزله الله عز و جل على
+
+636
+01:01:13,210 --> 01:01:18,490
+نبيه عليه الصلاة والسلام فعاجزوا ثم تحدهم أن يأتوا
+
+637
+01:01:18,490 --> 01:01:23,950
+بعشر صور مثله فعاجزوا ثم تحدهم أن يأتوا بمثل صورة
+
+638
+01:01:23,950 --> 01:01:31,150
+منه فعاجزوا ثم أعلمهم أنه بأنه لو اجتمع البشر كلهم
+
+639
+01:01:31,420 --> 01:01:37,640
+وأيضا تظاهرت معهم الجن لو تظافرت جهودهم كلهم مع
+
+640
+01:01:37,640 --> 01:01:41,320
+بعضهم البعض الانس والجن على ان يأتوا بمثل هذا
+
+641
+01:01:41,320 --> 01:01:47,140
+القرآن ما استطاعوا ان يأتوا بمثله ام يقولون افتراه
+
+642
+01:01:47,140 --> 01:01:52,680
+قل فاتوا بصورة مثله وادعوا من استطعتم من دون الله
+
+643
+01:01:52,680 --> 01:01:59,590
+ان كنتم صادقين قال تعالىأم يقولون افتراه قل فاتوا
+
+644
+01:01:59,590 --> 01:02:04,310
+بعشر صور مثله مفتريات وادعوا من استطعتم من دون
+
+645
+01:02:04,310 --> 01:02:09,200
+الله إن كنتم صادقينثم في نهاية المطاف تحداهم الله
+
+646
+01:02:09,200 --> 01:02:14,380
+تبارك وتعالى وإلى قيام الساعة قل إن اجتمعت الإنس
+
+647
+01:02:14,380 --> 01:02:19,140
+والجن على أن يأتوا بمثل هذا القرآن لا يأتون بمثله
+
+648
+01:02:19,140 --> 01:02:25,260
+ولو كان بعضهم لبعض ظاهرة فهذه المعجزة التي أيضى
+
+649
+01:02:25,260 --> 01:02:28,780
+الله تبارك وتعالى بها نبيه صلى الله عليه وسلم
+
+650
+01:02:28,780 --> 01:02:34,340
+وتحدى بها الأولين والآخرين لا زالتيتحدى الله عز
+
+651
+01:02:34,340 --> 01:02:39,680
+وجل بها العالم كله في كل زمان ومكان وبالتأكيد لن
+
+652
+01:02:39,680 --> 01:02:43,700
+يستطيع العالم مهما أوتي من علوم الفصاحة والبلاغة
+
+653
+01:02:43,700 --> 01:02:47,900
+وغيرها أن يعارض آية من كتاب الله تبارك وتعالى
+
+654
+01:02:47,900 --> 01:02:53,600
+والذي يطلع على التاريخ يرا ويعلم أن منهم من حاول
+
+655
+01:02:54,900 --> 01:03:00,500
+يأتي بمثل القرآن الكريم فكان أضحوك للعالمين كما
+
+656
+01:03:00,500 --> 01:03:06,610
+قال بعضهم إن أعطيناك التفاح فصلي لربك وارتاحإن
+
+657
+01:03:06,610 --> 01:03:13,310
+شانئك هو الخروف النطاح هذا تشبه بصورة الكوثر فأضحك
+
+658
+01:03:13,310 --> 01:03:17,870
+أصبح أضحوك في التاريخ هذا الكلام هذه الترهات لا
+
+659
+01:03:17,870 --> 01:03:22,390
+يمكن أن تداني أو تقارب القرآن الكريم في جزالة لفظه
+
+660
+01:03:22,390 --> 01:03:28,960
+وفي بلاغته وفي فصاحتهوفي إعجازه لا يمكن للعالمين
+
+661
+01:03:28,960 --> 01:03:33,060
+كلهم لو كان الإنس والجن أن يأتوا بمثل هذا القرآن
+
+662
+01:03:33,060 --> 01:03:38,960
+هذا ما يمكن أن نتحدث به في موضوع المعجزة التي هي
+
+663
+01:03:38,960 --> 01:03:45,580
+دلالة دالة على صدق مدعي النبوة يأتي الله تبارك
+
+664
+01:03:45,580 --> 01:03:51,360
+وتعالى بها تصديق لنبيه صلى الله عليه وسلم فيما جاء
+
+665
+01:03:51,360 --> 01:03:56,330
+به من دعوة النبوة بهذا نكون قد انتهينامن دلائل
+
+666
+01:03:56,330 --> 01:04:00,850
+النبوة بارك الله فيكم والسلام عليكم ورحمة الله
+
+667
+01:04:00,850 --> 01:04:01,630
+وبركاته
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/MhdfchmOzbE_raw.json b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/MhdfchmOzbE_raw.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..d4e26a949dca6ae8750d5e8d0799334ab18ac807
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/MhdfchmOzbE_raw.json
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/NQVgvzWIDno_raw.json b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/NQVgvzWIDno_raw.json
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index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..d8b971366214ef7975a1e1721d45c3d8040286da
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@@ -0,0 +1 @@
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\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/Nfg-dEN060c_raw.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/Nfg-dEN060c_raw.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..350e9104056501760588e25e1ffcc04e00bfbef5
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/Nfg-dEN060c_raw.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1728 @@
+1
+00:00:20,990 --> 00:00:23,770
+أعوذ بالله السميع العليم من الشيطان الرجيم بسم
+
+2
+00:00:23,770 --> 00:00:28,030
+الله الرحمن الرحيم الحمد لله رب العالمين و أصلي و
+
+3
+00:00:28,030 --> 00:00:32,470
+أسلم على رسول الله الأمين اللهم لا سهل إلا ما
+
+4
+00:00:32,470 --> 00:00:36,090
+جعلته سهل و أنت تجعله الحزن إن شئت سهل اللهم
+
+5
+00:00:36,090 --> 00:00:39,430
+أعلمنا ما ينفعنا و أنفعنا بما علمتنا و أزدنا علما
+
+6
+00:00:39,430 --> 00:00:44,270
+إنك أنت العليم الحكيم و بعد نبدأ إن شاء الله هذا
+
+7
+00:00:44,270 --> 00:00:51,270
+الفصل بعون الله تبارك وتعالىومقصودنا في هذا الفصل
+
+8
+00:00:51,270 --> 00:00:58,930
+أن ندرس مع بعضنا البعض مساق عقيدة اتنين وهذا
+
+9
+00:00:58,930 --> 00:01:03,370
+المساق كما تعلمون له مساق سابق وهو عقيدة واحد في
+
+10
+00:01:03,370 --> 00:01:07,470
+عقيدة واحد كنا قد شرحنا وبينا أركان الإيمان
+
+11
+00:01:07,470 --> 00:01:11,830
+الثلاثة الأولى الإيمان بالله تبارك وتعالى والإيمان
+
+12
+00:01:11,830 --> 00:01:16,330
+بالملائكة والإيمان بالكتب السماوية وفي هذا المساق
+
+13
+00:01:16,330 --> 00:01:20,740
+نتناولبمشيئة الله تبارك وتعالى أركان الإيمان
+
+14
+00:01:20,740 --> 00:01:26,580
+الثلاثة الأخيرة الإيمان بالأنبياء والمرسلين ثم
+
+15
+00:01:26,580 --> 00:01:31,140
+الإيمان باليوم الآخر ثم الإيمان بالقضاء والقدر
+
+16
+00:01:31,140 --> 00:01:38,480
+فسنبدأ بعون الله تبارك وتعالى بشرح الرقم الرابع من
+
+17
+00:01:38,480 --> 00:01:42,340
+أركان الإيمان وهو الإيمان بالأنبياء والمرسلين في
+
+18
+00:01:42,340 --> 00:01:49,870
+هذا الرقمسنتناول خمسة مباحث المبحث الأول بعنوان
+
+19
+00:01:49,870 --> 00:01:53,750
+مفهوم الإيمان بالأنبياء والمرسلين ثم في المبحث
+
+20
+00:01:53,750 --> 00:01:58,810
+الثاني دلائل النبوة وفي المبحث الثالث صفات النبوة
+
+21
+00:01:58,810 --> 00:02:05,590
+ووظائفها وفي الرابع تفاضل الأنبياء وفضلهم ثم في
+
+22
+00:02:05,590 --> 00:02:09,350
+الخامس محمد صلى الله عليه وسلم خاتم الأنبياء
+
+23
+00:02:09,350 --> 00:02:16,050
+والمرسلين وما يجب له علينارقم الإيمان بالأنبياء
+
+24
+00:02:16,050 --> 00:02:21,730
+والمرسلين هو الرقم الرابع من أركان الإيمان وهو أصل
+
+25
+00:02:21,730 --> 00:02:30,050
+من أصول الدين ويجب على كل مؤمن أن يعتقد بهذا الرقم
+
+26
+00:02:30,050 --> 00:02:37,090
+العظيمفلا يجوز التقصير فيه ولا بأي جزء من أجزائه
+
+27
+00:02:37,090 --> 00:02:43,230
+لقوله تعالى قولوا آمنا بالله وما أنزل إلينا وقد
+
+28
+00:02:43,230 --> 00:02:49,430
+امتدح الله عز وجل هذه الأمة ونبيها عندما قال
+
+29
+00:02:49,430 --> 00:02:53,910
+سبحانه وتعالى آمن الرسول بما أنزل إليه من ربه
+
+30
+00:02:53,910 --> 00:03:00,860
+والمؤمنون كل آمن بالله وملائكته وكتبه ورسلهلا نفرق
+
+31
+00:03:00,860 --> 00:03:06,300
+بين أحد من رسله وهنا الشاهد هنا الشاهد لا نفرق بين
+
+32
+00:03:06,300 --> 00:03:11,000
+أحد من رسله فالإيمان هذه الآية بالتأكيد يعني تبين
+
+33
+00:03:11,000 --> 00:03:16,480
+أن تبين لنا أربعة أركان الإيمان بالله وملائكته
+
+34
+00:03:16,480 --> 00:03:21,620
+وكتبه ورسله فالإيمان بالأنبياء والمرسلين يأتي في
+
+35
+00:03:21,620 --> 00:03:27,930
+المرتبة الرابعة وفي حديث جبريلفي حديث جبريل الذي
+
+36
+00:03:27,930 --> 00:03:30,910
+يذكر فيه النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم أركان الإيمان
+
+37
+00:03:30,910 --> 00:03:35,330
+أيضًا لما سأله جبريل ما الإيمان قال الإيمان أن
+
+38
+00:03:35,330 --> 00:03:40,490
+تؤمن بالله وملائكته وكتبه ورسله واليوم الآخر
+
+39
+00:03:40,490 --> 00:03:44,690
+والقضاء والقدر خيره وشره ذكراء هذا الركن أيضًا في
+
+40
+00:03:44,690 --> 00:03:51,390
+المرتبة الرابعة ولذلك كتاب التبيان المقرر عليكم هو
+
+41
+00:03:51,390 --> 00:03:58,670
+بهذا الترتيبالقرآني النبوي الركن الأول الكتاب
+
+42
+00:03:58,670 --> 00:04:03,450
+الأول أو الجزء الأول جاء يبين أركان الإيمان
+
+43
+00:04:03,450 --> 00:04:07,730
+الثلاثة الأولى الإيمان بالله والإيمان بالملائكة
+
+44
+00:04:07,730 --> 00:04:11,850
+والإيمان بالكتب ثم الجزء الثاني الذي نحن بصدد
+
+45
+00:04:11,850 --> 00:04:16,750
+دراسته يبين أركان الإيمان الثلاثة الأخيرة وسنبدأ
+
+46
+00:04:16,750 --> 00:04:21,250
+كما قلنا بهذا الركن الإيمان بالأنبياء والمرسلين
+
+47
+00:04:22,730 --> 00:04:29,590
+فالمسلم يجب أن يعتقد بكافة الأنبياء والمرسلين فهذا
+
+48
+00:04:29,590 --> 00:04:34,550
+ركن من أركان الإيمان واصل من أصول الدين لا يصح
+
+49
+00:04:34,550 --> 00:04:41,670
+لمؤمن أن يقصر في أي جزئية من جزئيات هذا الركن ما
+
+50
+00:04:41,670 --> 00:04:46,130
+معنى الإيمان بالأنبياء والمرسلين معنى الإيمان به
+
+51
+00:04:46,130 --> 00:04:53,960
+هو الاعتقاد الجازم بأن لله تبارك وتعالى رسولارسولا
+
+52
+00:04:53,960 --> 00:04:59,740
+اصطفاهم لتبليغ رسالته فمن اتبعهم فقد اهتدى ومن
+
+53
+00:04:59,740 --> 00:05:05,480
+عصاهم فقد غوى وأنهم قد بلغوا ما أنزل اليهم هذا يجب
+
+54
+00:05:05,480 --> 00:05:11,020
+هذا واجب على كل انسان ينتمي لهذا الدين يجب ان
+
+55
+00:05:11,020 --> 00:05:17,010
+يعتقدبالله وملائكته وكتبه ورسله وهنا في الرسل لا
+
+56
+00:05:17,010 --> 00:05:20,850
+نفرق بين أحد من رسله يجب أن نعتقد بالأنبياء
+
+57
+00:05:20,850 --> 00:05:26,790
+والمرسلين جميعا يجب أن نتبعهم وأن نعمل بما أوحى
+
+58
+00:05:26,790 --> 00:05:32,090
+الله تبارك وتعالى به إليهم من الهدي والصلاح والهدى
+
+59
+00:05:32,090 --> 00:05:40,140
+وصلاح البشريةويجب أن نؤمن بالأنبياء جميعا بمعنى
+
+60
+00:05:40,140 --> 00:05:45,720
+بمن سُمّي لنا ومن لم يُسمى فهناك أنبياء كما سنبين
+
+61
+00:05:45,720 --> 00:05:50,260
+إن شاء الله سماهم الله تبارك وتعالى لنا ذكر لنا
+
+62
+00:05:50,260 --> 00:05:55,400
+أسماءهم ذكر لنا أقوامهم ذكر لنا معجزاتهم ذكر لنا
+
+63
+00:05:55,400 --> 00:06:00,300
+ما حصل بينهم وبين أقوامهم وهناك أنبياء ومرسلينلم
+
+64
+00:06:00,300 --> 00:06:04,160
+يذكرهم .. ذكرهم الله تبارك وتعالى بالإجمال، لكن لم
+
+65
+00:06:04,160 --> 00:06:09,120
+يذكر أسماءهم، لم يذكر ما حصل بينهم وبين أقوامهم،
+
+66
+00:06:09,120 --> 00:06:13,400
+لم يذكر معجزاتهم، فلذلك يجب أن نؤمن بهم وسنبين إن
+
+67
+00:06:13,400 --> 00:06:16,760
+شاء الله الإيمان الإجمالي والإيمان التفسيري، يعني
+
+68
+00:06:16,760 --> 00:06:20,600
+بمعنى كيف يكون الإيمان بهؤلاء الأنبياء إن شاء الله
+
+69
+00:06:20,600 --> 00:06:28,320
+تعالىمبحث لعله من فروع العقيدة إنجاز التعبير مبحث
+
+70
+00:06:28,320 --> 00:06:34,880
+بعنوان الفرق بين النبي والرسول الفرق بين النبي
+
+71
+00:06:34,880 --> 00:06:40,040
+والرسول هذا لا يخلو منه كتاب في العقيدة يتكلم عن
+
+72
+00:06:40,040 --> 00:06:46,980
+أركان الإيمان لنا أن نقف عنده وأن نبين يعني الفرق
+
+73
+00:06:46,980 --> 00:06:52,160
+بين النبي والرسول وما وصل إليه الاجتهادأقول
+
+74
+00:06:52,160 --> 00:06:58,820
+الإجتهاد في هذا الموضوع قبل أن ألج إلى بيان الفرق
+
+75
+00:06:58,820 --> 00:07:03,520
+بين النبي والرسول لابد من تعريف النبي والرسول لغة
+
+76
+00:07:03,520 --> 00:07:09,920
+ثم نأتي إليها إصطلاحا النبي
+
+77
+00:07:09,920 --> 00:07:13,540
+لغة جاء
+
+78
+00:07:13,540 --> 00:07:20,540
+من واحد من أصلين إما من النبأ بمعنى الخبر
+
+79
+00:07:23,300 --> 00:07:28,760
+إما من النبأ بمعنى الخبر كما في قوله تعالى عما
+
+80
+00:07:28,760 --> 00:07:32,580
+يتساءلون عن النبأ العظيم والنبأ العظيم هنا في
+
+81
+00:07:32,580 --> 00:07:38,400
+الآية هو اليوم الآخر فالناس مختلفون فيه أشد اختلاف
+
+82
+00:07:38,400 --> 00:07:46,120
+هل سيكون يوم آخر يوم للحساب أم لا يكون وهناك
+
+83
+00:07:46,120 --> 00:07:51,620
+من يعتقد بهذا اليوم عما يتساءلون عن النبأ العظيم
+
+84
+00:07:51,620 --> 00:07:57,210
+عن الخبر العظيمفي قوله تعالى نبّق عبادي، نبّق أخبر
+
+85
+00:07:57,210 --> 00:08:02,370
+عبادي فالنبأ هو الخبر، نبّق عبادي أني أنا الغفور
+
+86
+00:08:02,370 --> 00:08:07,970
+الرحيم أيضا يشهد له قوله تعالى ونبّقهم عن ضيف
+
+87
+00:08:07,970 --> 00:08:11,770
+إبراهيم، يعني أخبرهم بمعنى أخبرهم عن ضيف إبراهيم
+
+88
+00:08:11,770 --> 00:08:21,740
+سمي النبي نبيا لأنه ينبئ عن الله ينبئ عن اللهالنبي
+
+89
+00:08:21,740 --> 00:08:27,520
+سمى نبيا لأنه ينبئ عن الله فالله عز وجل يوحي له ثم
+
+90
+00:08:27,520 --> 00:08:35,280
+هو ينبئ عن الوحي ينبئ من أرسل إليهم، من بُعث
+
+91
+00:08:35,280 --> 00:08:40,700
+إليهم، ينبئهم، يخبرهم بوحي الله تبارك وتعالى وشرعه
+
+92
+00:08:40,700 --> 00:08:50,390
+قالت من أنبأك هذا؟ قال نبأني العليم الخبيرأي نعم
+
+93
+00:08:50,390 --> 00:09:01,610
+فالنبوة تبين لنا العلاقة بين النبي بين هذا الإنسان
+
+94
+00:09:01,610 --> 00:09:06,350
+الذي اختاره الله عز وجل لتلقي وحيه وبين الله تبارك
+
+95
+00:09:06,350 --> 00:09:14,910
+وتعالى النبوة تبين العلاقةبين من اختاره بين الشخص
+
+96
+00:09:14,910 --> 00:09:19,270
+اللذي اختاره الله عز وجل لتلقي الوحي وبين الله
+
+97
+00:09:19,270 --> 00:09:26,370
+تبارك وتعالى أما الأصل الثاني اللتي جاءت منه كلمة
+
+98
+00:09:26,370 --> 00:09:33,790
+النبوة فهي النبوة الأصل الثاني اللذي جاءت منه كلمة
+
+99
+00:09:33,790 --> 00:09:39,230
+النبي النبوة والنبوة هو مرتفع من الأرض هكذا في
+
+100
+00:09:39,230 --> 00:09:45,020
+لغتناما استشرف من الأرض ما على منها كتلة أو جبل
+
+101
+00:09:45,020 --> 00:09:54,920
+يقال له نبوة في اللغة سمى النبي نبيا لأنه ذو مكانة
+
+102
+00:09:54,920 --> 00:10:04,800
+عالية رفيعة بين قومه والمؤمنين بهفهو ذو رفعة وسمو
+
+103
+00:10:04,800 --> 00:10:11,540
+واحترام وتقدير بين المؤمنين به يوقرونه ويعزرونه
+
+104
+00:10:11,540 --> 00:10:20,360
+يحترمونه يقدرونه يرفعون مكانته لذلك سمي نبيا سمي
+
+105
+00:10:20,360 --> 00:10:28,830
+نبيا من النبوة والحقيقة أنه لا يوجد ما يمنعركزي،
+
+106
+00:10:28,830 --> 00:10:32,750
+لا يوجد ما يمنع أن تقول كلمة النبي من الأصلين معاه
+
+107
+00:10:32,750 --> 00:10:41,730
+فالنبي من جانب يخبر عن الله ومن جانب أخر له مكانة
+
+108
+00:10:41,730 --> 00:10:50,430
+سامية ورفيعة بين قومه أي نعم أما الرسول أيضا في
+
+109
+00:10:50,430 --> 00:10:58,350
+اللغة من قول العرب جاهة القبل رسلةعندما نرى القبل
+
+110
+00:10:58,350 --> 00:11:04,950
+في الصحراء نجدها تأتي متتابعة قافلة من القبل
+
+111
+00:11:04,950 --> 00:11:12,530
+البعير خلف أخيه و هكذا خلف الآخر واحد خلف الآخر
+
+112
+00:11:12,530 --> 00:11:18,650
+واحد خلف الآخر هذه القافلة تتهادى تأتي بهدوء وتؤدى
+
+113
+00:11:18,650 --> 00:11:27,890
+وتتتابع فالرسول سمى رسولا منجاءت القبل رسلة بمعنى
+
+114
+00:11:27,890 --> 00:11:37,750
+متتابعة فالرسول هو الذي يتابع أخبار من أرسله أو من
+
+115
+00:11:37,750 --> 00:11:44,630
+قول العرب رسل اللبن من رسل اللبن إذا تتابع دره
+
+116
+00:11:44,630 --> 00:11:53,910
+فعندما نحلب الشاتة نجد أن الحليب ينزل بعسر وصعوبة
+
+117
+00:11:53,910 --> 00:12:00,750
+في البدايةلكن بعد ذلك يتتابع نزوله بكل سهولة حتى
+
+118
+00:12:00,750 --> 00:12:06,030
+الطفل عندما يرضع من أمه للمرة الأولى في حياته لعل
+
+119
+00:12:06,030 --> 00:12:11,310
+الحليب ينزل بشيء من الصعوبة ثم بعد ذلك يدر عليه
+
+120
+00:12:11,310 --> 00:12:18,550
+الحليب ويتتابع نزوله سمى الرسول رسولا لأنه يتتابع
+
+121
+00:12:18,550 --> 00:12:24,480
+عليه نزول الوحي حتى المماتحتى المامد، بمعنى أنه لا
+
+122
+00:12:24,480 --> 00:12:28,600
+ينزل عليه مرة ومرتين ثم ينقطق، إنما يستمر من
+
+123
+00:12:28,600 --> 00:12:35,260
+اختاره الله عز وجل لوحيه، لرسالته، يبقى الوحي ينزل
+
+124
+00:12:35,260 --> 00:12:45,640
+عليه حتى يموت، حتى يموت. هذا معنى النبوة لغة معنى
+
+125
+00:12:45,640 --> 00:12:51,010
+النبي لغة ومعنى الرسول لغة.نأتي إلى معنى النبي
+
+126
+00:12:51,010 --> 00:12:58,150
+والرسول اسطلاحا نجد أن هنا العلماء لهم أكثر من رأي
+
+127
+00:12:58,150 --> 00:13:04,630
+ونحن سنقف على ثلاثة آراء ثلاثة أقوال لكل قول أصحاب
+
+128
+00:13:04,630 --> 00:13:14,190
+أصحاب القول الأول وهم الجمهور المعتزلة وأيضا
+
+129
+00:13:14,190 --> 00:13:20,380
+الجويني والآمديالجويني أبو مالك الجويني عبد المالك
+
+130
+00:13:20,380 --> 00:13:25,320
+الجويني عفواً وسيف الدين الأمدي وعضد الدين الإيجي
+
+131
+00:13:25,320 --> 00:13:30,340
+من الأشايرة ثم الطبرسي من الشيعة هؤلاء يقولون بهذا
+
+132
+00:13:30,340 --> 00:13:35,140
+القول يقولون بأنه لا فرق بين النبي والرسول فالنبي
+
+133
+00:13:35,140 --> 00:13:42,280
+والرسول عند هؤلاء لفظان مترادفان متساويان فكل نبي
+
+134
+00:13:42,280 --> 00:13:49,290
+الرسول وكل رسول النبيولهم أدلة في ذلك لهم أدلة في
+
+135
+00:13:49,290 --> 00:13:57,270
+ذلك متواضع هذه الأدلة نرى أنهم استشهدوا بهذه الآية
+
+136
+00:13:57,270 --> 00:14:03,070
+مثلا قالوا وما أرسلنا لحظة الإرسال هنا وما أرسلنا
+
+137
+00:14:03,070 --> 00:14:09,530
+من قبلك من رسول ولا نبي من رسول ولا نبي قالوا أن
+
+138
+00:14:09,530 --> 00:14:20,050
+الإرسال عامة الرسول والنبيفلذلك كل رسول نبي وكل
+
+139
+00:14:20,050 --> 00:14:27,810
+نبي رسول. هنا وما أرسلنا من رسول ولا نبي. الإرسال
+
+140
+00:14:27,810 --> 00:14:32,570
+هنا الله أرسله كل من الرسول ومن النبي. هذا مرسل
+
+141
+00:14:32,570 --> 00:14:37,460
+وهذا مرسل. إذن كلاهمكلا هما واحد هذا دليل من
+
+142
+00:14:37,460 --> 00:14:44,180
+أدلتهم ثم قالوا من كلامهم أيضا أن الأمر فقط يتعلق
+
+143
+00:14:44,180 --> 00:14:49,040
+بالعلاقة بالنظر إلى العلاقة بالنظر إلى العلاقة
+
+144
+00:14:49,040 --> 00:14:57,400
+فعلاقة النبي بالناس علاقة النبي بالناس هذا يبين
+
+145
+00:14:58,760 --> 00:15:03,600
+علاقة النبي بالناس هذا يبين هذا يؤكد أنه رسول
+
+146
+00:15:03,600 --> 00:15:10,180
+إليهم رسول الله إليهم أما علاقته بالله فهو نبي
+
+147
+00:15:10,180 --> 00:15:15,320
+نتكلم عن شخص واحد علاقة بالله نبوة لكن علاقة
+
+148
+00:15:15,320 --> 00:15:20,640
+بالناس هو رسول الله إليهم فالرسول هو النبي والنبي
+
+149
+00:15:20,640 --> 00:15:26,790
+هو الرسول هذارأي أصحاب هذا القول لذلك وجدناهم
+
+150
+00:15:26,790 --> 00:15:32,650
+يعرفون النبي والرسول بنفس المعنى فمثلا هنا أبو
+
+151
+00:15:32,650 --> 00:15:38,390
+الأعلى المودود قال الرسول من يؤدي إلى الناس رسالة
+
+152
+00:15:38,390 --> 00:15:44,390
+ربهم ويهديهم إلى صراطه المستقيم بإذنه النبي يفعل
+
+153
+00:15:44,390 --> 00:15:50,410
+نفس الشيء عبدالكريم مثل ما .. النبي لحظة هو الذي
+
+154
+00:15:50,410 --> 00:15:56,080
+يختاره الله تعالى ليقوم بأداءرسالة، النبي يقوم
+
+155
+00:15:56,080 --> 00:16:05,040
+بأداء رسالة، لحظة، النبي هنا، اه؟ النبي يقوم بأداء
+
+156
+00:16:05,040 --> 00:16:09,360
+رسالة هنا،
+
+157
+00:16:09,360 --> 00:16:18,250
+النبي يقوم بإيه؟ بأداء رسالة، فإذا النبي هو الرسول
+
+158
+00:16:18,250 --> 00:16:22,050
+والرسول هو النبي عند هذا الفريق عند هذا الفريق
+
+159
+00:16:22,050 --> 00:16:30,610
+ولنا وقف حقيقة مع هذا الرأي حقيقة هو قول مرجوح هو
+
+160
+00:16:30,610 --> 00:16:36,430
+قول مرجوح لذلك أصحاب الرأي الثاني وثالث أيضا ردوا
+
+161
+00:16:36,430 --> 00:16:43,790
+على هؤلاء ردوا عليهم وهذه الردود منبه أنها أدلة
+
+162
+00:16:43,790 --> 00:16:49,040
+للفريق الثانيأدلة الفريق الثاني ردوا عليهم فقالوا
+
+163
+00:16:49,040 --> 00:16:55,180
+قوله تعالى وما أرسلنا لحظة نفس الأدلة ردوا بقوله
+
+164
+00:16:55,180 --> 00:16:59,160
+تعالى دليل أول وما أرسلنا من قبلك من رسول ولا نبي
+
+165
+00:16:59,160 --> 00:17:04,520
+إلا إذا تمنا وما أرسلنا من قبلك من رسول ولا نبي
+
+166
+00:17:04,520 --> 00:17:10,600
+قال لو كان النبي مساويا للرسول لم أعطف عليه لأن
+
+167
+00:17:10,600 --> 00:17:13,960
+كما نعلم أن القرآن الكريم في غاية البلاغة والإعجاز
+
+168
+00:17:16,600 --> 00:17:20,320
+فلا يجوز أن يعطف الشيء على نفسه إذا عطف الشيء على
+
+169
+00:17:20,320 --> 00:17:28,840
+نفسه يعد ركاكة فالعطف يشعر بتغير مفهومهما في
+
+170
+00:17:28,840 --> 00:17:37,220
+الاصطلاح فالرسول له معنى والنبي له معنى استشهدوا
+
+171
+00:17:37,220 --> 00:17:42,660
+بنفس الآية لكن بطريقة أخرى دليل آخر لهم أو رد آخر
+
+172
+00:17:42,660 --> 00:17:47,000
+على أصحاب الرأي الأولكما يشهد له عطف أحدهم على
+
+173
+00:17:47,000 --> 00:17:52,940
+الآخر عطف تغير في قوله تعالى واذكر في الكتاب موسى
+
+174
+00:17:52,940 --> 00:18:01,060
+إنه كان مخلصا وكان رسولا نبيا لما ماقالش واذكر في
+
+175
+00:18:01,060 --> 00:18:07,260
+الكتاب موسى إنه كان مخلصا وكان رسولا خلاص اكتفى
+
+176
+00:18:07,260 --> 00:18:12,420
+بيها أو وكان نبيا واكتفى بيها لماذا؟
+
+177
+00:18:14,540 --> 00:18:18,740
+فكوله يعني عطفة إحداهما على الأخرى هذا يفيد أن
+
+178
+00:18:18,740 --> 00:18:26,040
+هناك تغاير أيضا الفريق الثاني استدل ورد على الفريق
+
+179
+00:18:26,040 --> 00:18:32,860
+الأول بحديث ورد عن أبي ذر الغفاري رضوان الله عليه
+
+180
+00:18:32,860 --> 00:18:37,420
+في بيان عدد الأنبياء والمرسلين أبو ذر الغفاري يسأل
+
+181
+00:18:37,420 --> 00:18:41,960
+النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم يا رسول الله كم وف عدة
+
+182
+00:18:41,960 --> 00:18:48,140
+الأنبياء؟فأجاب النبي قال مائة ألف واربع وعشرون
+
+183
+00:18:48,140 --> 00:18:56,300
+ألفا الرسل من ذلك ثلاثمائة وخمسة عشر جمّا غفيرا
+
+184
+00:18:56,300 --> 00:19:02,860
+جمّا غفيرا لحظه أجاب النبي عن عدد الأنبياء مية
+
+185
+00:19:02,860 --> 00:19:09,170
+واربع وعشرين ألف نبيهؤلاء كلهم أنبياء لكن المرسلون
+
+186
+00:19:09,170 --> 00:19:17,010
+منهم الذين أرسلوا فقط ثلاثمائة وخمسة عشر هذا يبين
+
+187
+00:19:17,010 --> 00:19:22,570
+أن هناك فرق بين النبي وبين الرسول ومعنى قول النبي
+
+188
+00:19:22,570 --> 00:19:30,030
+جمّن غفيرا بمعنى جمعا كثيرا كثيفا كثيرا اي نعم
+
+189
+00:19:30,030 --> 00:19:35,250
+جمّن غفيرا القول الثاني هذا الفريق
+
+190
+00:19:37,840 --> 00:19:43,000
+ذهب إلى التفريق بين النبي والرسول فالنبي والرسول
+
+191
+00:19:43,000 --> 00:19:49,060
+عند هذا الفريق الأفغاني متغيران لكل واحد معناه
+
+192
+00:19:49,060 --> 00:19:58,860
+النبي قال هو إنسان أوحي إليه بشرع سواء أمر بتبليغه
+
+193
+00:19:58,860 --> 00:20:05,590
+أم لم يؤمرأما الرسول فهو إنسان أوحي إليه بشرع و
+
+194
+00:20:05,590 --> 00:20:14,730
+أمر بتبليغه للناس. لحظة هذا الفريق يعني يريد أن
+
+195
+00:20:14,730 --> 00:20:18,530
+يقول أن النبي يوحى إليه لكن لا يؤمر بالتبليغ.
+
+196
+00:20:18,910 --> 00:20:24,690
+والرسول يوحى إليه ويؤمر بالتبليغ. إذا الأمر الفارق
+
+197
+00:20:24,690 --> 00:20:31,430
+بين النبي والرسول عندهمهو أن النبي لا يبلغ الرسول
+
+198
+00:20:31,430 --> 00:20:35,830
+يبلغ ونجد
+
+199
+00:20:35,830 --> 00:20:42,290
+أن هذا الكلام يعني يؤكده شارح الطهوية يقول قد
+
+200
+00:20:42,290 --> 00:20:47,390
+ذكروا فروقا بين النبي والرسول وأحسنها أحسن هذه
+
+201
+00:20:47,390 --> 00:20:53,970
+الفروق أقوى هذه الفروق أن من نبأه الله بخبر السماء
+
+202
+00:20:56,000 --> 00:21:05,860
+إن أمره أن يبلغ غيره فهو نبي الرسول وإن
+
+203
+00:21:05,860 --> 00:21:11,640
+لم يأمره أن يبلغ غيره فهو نبي وليس رسول فالرسول
+
+204
+00:21:11,640 --> 00:21:18,560
+أخص من النبي فكل رسول نبي وليس كل نبي رسول أثناء
+
+205
+00:21:18,560 --> 00:21:22,720
+على هذا الكلام الإمام المهدوي قال وهذا هو الصحيح
+
+206
+00:21:24,980 --> 00:21:29,160
+هذا هو الصحيح أن كل رسول النبي وليس كل نبي الرسول
+
+207
+00:21:29,160 --> 00:21:34,420
+وكذا ذكر القاضي عياض في كتابه الشفى بحقوق المصطفى
+
+208
+00:21:34,420 --> 00:21:40,560
+قال والصحيح الذي عليه الجمع الغفير أن كل نبي أن كل
+
+209
+00:21:40,560 --> 00:21:44,560
+رسول النبي وليس كل نبي الرسولة واحتج بحديث أبي ذر
+
+210
+00:21:44,560 --> 00:21:53,920
+لكن دلنا أن نسأل حقيقة ما هو الفرقبين النبي
+
+211
+00:21:53,920 --> 00:22:03,080
+والرسول هل ما ذكروه مقنع ومقبول لعلك تتفاجئي عندما
+
+212
+00:22:03,080 --> 00:22:08,720
+نعلم أن هذا القول هو قول جمهور علماء المسلمين هو
+
+213
+00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:13,160
+قول الجمهور هو القول المتوارث بين العلماء هو القول
+
+214
+00:22:13,160 --> 00:22:20,280
+المتوارث بين العلماءهناك قول ثالث حقيقة هذا القول
+
+215
+00:22:20,280 --> 00:22:26,010
+عليه مآخذ وإن كان لجمهور العلماءهذا لعله خطأ
+
+216
+00:22:26,010 --> 00:22:32,250
+متوارث، توارثه العلماء بغير قصد، هو أصلا هذا
+
+217
+00:22:32,250 --> 00:22:36,590
+الموضوع كله برمته كما قلت لك هو من الفروع العقيدة،
+
+218
+00:22:36,590 --> 00:22:41,090
+بمعنى أنه لا ينبني عليه تكفير ولا تفسيق ولا تضليل،
+
+219
+00:22:41,090 --> 00:22:45,690
+بمعنى أنني لو موت الآن، الله عز وجل وكنت أعتقد
+
+220
+00:22:45,690 --> 00:22:50,300
+مثلا أن النبي والرسول بمعنى واحد،وغيري مات وهو
+
+221
+00:22:50,300 --> 00:22:56,360
+يعتقد بخلاف ذلك، أنهم لفظة متغيران، فلن يحاسبني
+
+222
+00:22:56,360 --> 00:22:59,500
+الله تعالى على هذا، لن يقول لي تعالى لماذا كنت
+
+223
+00:22:59,500 --> 00:23:05,580
+تعتقد بأن كل نبي رسول وكل رسول نبي، هذا لا نسأل
+
+224
+00:23:05,580 --> 00:23:09,620
+عنه، هذا أمر يتعلق بالفهم فقط، هذا من الفروع
+
+225
+00:23:09,620 --> 00:23:15,480
+العقيدة، لذلك تصويبا للفهم فقط، نرد على هذا القول،
+
+226
+00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:20,430
+هذا القول بعيد،لا يُعقل أن الفرق بين النبي والرسول
+
+227
+00:23:20,430 --> 00:23:25,350
+هو
+
+228
+00:23:25,350 --> 00:23:29,250
+أن النبي لا يُعمر بالتبليغ، والرسول يُعمر
+
+229
+00:23:29,250 --> 00:23:34,810
+بالتبليغ، يدل على ذلك الأمور الآتية الأول أن الله
+
+230
+00:23:34,810 --> 00:23:40,310
+نص على أنه أرسل الأنبياء كما أرسل المرسلين كما
+
+231
+00:23:40,310 --> 00:23:46,350
+أرسل الرسلأيضا بنفس الآية وما أرسلنا من قبلك من
+
+232
+00:23:46,350 --> 00:23:51,050
+رسول ولا نبي الرسول
+
+233
+00:23:51,050 --> 00:23:55,550
+لماذا رسول؟ لماذا هو رسول؟ لأنه مرسل النبي أيضا
+
+234
+00:23:55,550 --> 00:24:00,070
+مرسل تراين
+
+235
+00:24:00,070 --> 00:24:05,250
+في هذه الآية؟ النبي مرسل وما أرسلنا من قبلك من
+
+236
+00:24:05,250 --> 00:24:12,410
+رسول ولا نبي الرسول مرسل واضحة الصورة اتنينمما يدل
+
+237
+00:24:12,410 --> 00:24:17,350
+على أن الأنبياء لا يُعقل أن يكونوا غير مبلغين أن
+
+238
+00:24:17,350 --> 00:24:23,330
+ترك البلاغ كتمان لوحي الله تعالى والله لا ينزل
+
+239
+00:24:23,330 --> 00:24:28,810
+وحيه ليكتم ويدفن في صدر واحد من الناس هل يُعقل أن
+
+240
+00:24:28,810 --> 00:24:35,510
+الله يوحي إلى واحد من أنبيائه ثم لا يأمره بالتبليغ
+
+241
+00:24:35,510 --> 00:24:41,060
+ويموت هذا الوحي ويدفن مع صاحبه؟ لا يُعقلالأمر
+
+242
+00:24:41,060 --> 00:24:48,100
+الثالث، إذا كان عوام بني إسرائيل كما في الآية، أخذ
+
+243
+00:24:48,100 --> 00:24:53,520
+الله عليهم الميثاق، العوام، عامة الناس، أيوة، فكيف
+
+244
+00:24:53,520 --> 00:24:57,040
+بالأنبياء؟ قال تعالى، وإذ أخذ الله ميثاق الذين
+
+245
+00:24:57,040 --> 00:25:03,860
+أوتوا الكتابة، لتبيننه للناس، ولا تكتمونه، ولا
+
+246
+00:25:03,860 --> 00:25:09,850
+تكتمونهفنبذوه وراء ظهورهم واشتروا به ثمن قليل،
+
+247
+00:25:09,850 --> 00:25:13,870
+فبئس ما يشترون، إذا كان الله عز وجل أخذ الميثاق
+
+248
+00:25:13,870 --> 00:25:19,400
+حتى عليناأن نأمر بالمعروف وأن ننهى عن المنكر يعني
+
+249
+00:25:19,400 --> 00:25:22,540
+بلغوا قال النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم بلغوا عني ولو
+
+250
+00:25:22,540 --> 00:25:27,440
+آية فإذا كنا نحن مؤكلفين بالتبليغ مرأة منكم منكرا
+
+251
+00:25:27,440 --> 00:25:32,080
+فليغيره بيده فإن لم يستطع فبلسانه فإن لم يستطع
+
+252
+00:25:32,080 --> 00:25:36,280
+فبقلبه هل يؤقل أن النبي لا يؤمر بالتبليغ ونحن نؤمر
+
+253
+00:25:36,280 --> 00:25:41,920
+بالتبليغ فهذا يؤكد أن النبي أيضا كان رسولكان
+
+254
+00:25:41,920 --> 00:25:46,720
+مأمورا بالتبديل. من هذه الأوقات أيضا في السنة
+
+255
+00:25:46,720 --> 00:25:52,140
+النبوية حديث بن عباس رضي الله عنه قال خرج علينا
+
+256
+00:25:52,140 --> 00:25:56,220
+النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم يوما فقال عرضت علي الأمم
+
+257
+00:25:56,220 --> 00:26:03,240
+فجعل يمر النبي معه الرجل والنبي معه الرجلانوالنبي
+
+258
+00:26:03,240 --> 00:26:08,040
+معه الرهط والنبي ليس معه أحد وين الشاهد؟ الشاهد في
+
+259
+00:26:08,040 --> 00:26:13,640
+هذا الحديث النبي الذي معه الرهط مجموعة من الناس من
+
+260
+00:26:13,640 --> 00:26:18,800
+أتباعه هؤلاء يتبعونه كيف يتبعونه؟ كيف أصبحوا من
+
+261
+00:26:18,800 --> 00:26:25,700
+أتباعه لو لأنه بلغهم أمرهم نهاهم واضح لهم حثهم
+
+262
+00:26:25,700 --> 00:26:30,340
+دعاهم إلى دين الله تبارك وتعالى الدليل الخامس يا
+
+263
+00:26:30,340 --> 00:26:36,730
+أخواتيوقد كان بني إسرائيل تسوسهم الأنبياء، تسوسهم،
+
+264
+00:26:36,730 --> 00:26:41,350
+يعني هم الذين يديرون أمورهم، يأمرونهم بالمعروف،
+
+265
+00:26:41,350 --> 00:26:46,710
+يدلوا على ذلكوينهونهم على المنكر. يدل على ذلك حديث
+
+266
+00:26:46,710 --> 00:26:50,470
+النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم كانت بنو إسرائيل تسوسهم
+
+267
+00:26:50,470 --> 00:26:56,350
+الأنبياء كلما هلك نبي خلفه نبي وإنه لا نبي بعده.
+
+268
+00:26:56,550 --> 00:27:01,030
+قال ابن حجر تسوسهم الأنبياء أي أنهم كانوا إذا ظهر
+
+269
+00:27:01,030 --> 00:27:07,490
+فيهم فساد بعث الله لهم نبيا يقيم أمرهم. بعث الله
+
+270
+00:27:07,490 --> 00:27:15,740
+لهم نبيانبيا يقيموا أمرهم ويزيلوا ما غيروا من
+
+271
+00:27:15,740 --> 00:27:24,440
+أحكام التورا هذا هو الرد على أصحاب القول الثاني
+
+272
+00:27:24,440 --> 00:27:30,600
+أصحاب القول الثالث يؤيدون
+
+273
+00:27:30,600 --> 00:27:37,080
+أصحاب الرأي الثاني في القول بأن هناك فرق بين النبي
+
+274
+00:27:37,080 --> 00:27:42,500
+والرسولفالنبي والرسول لفظان متغيران عند أصحاب
+
+275
+00:27:42,500 --> 00:27:48,880
+الرأي الثالث، لكن ما هو الفرق؟ ما هو الفرق؟ أثبتنا
+
+276
+00:27:48,880 --> 00:27:54,160
+أن الفرق الذي اعتمده وقال به أصحاب الرأي الثاني
+
+277
+00:27:54,160 --> 00:28:00,420
+وهو جمهور العلماء ضعيف وغير مقبول، بمعنى أن النبي
+
+278
+00:28:01,150 --> 00:28:05,710
+لا يؤمر بالتبليغ الرسول يؤمر بالتبليغ غير مقبول
+
+279
+00:28:05,710 --> 00:28:09,710
+مثل هذا الكلام إذا ما هو الفرق بين النبي والرسول
+
+280
+00:28:09,710 --> 00:28:16,310
+الفرق والله أعلى وأعلم وهذا هو التعريف المختار أن
+
+281
+00:28:16,310 --> 00:28:21,770
+الرسول منوحي إليه بشرع جديد والنبي هو المبعوث
+
+282
+00:28:21,770 --> 00:28:32,450
+لتقرير شرع من قبله أيضا فغالبا يغلب على الظنيغلب
+
+283
+00:28:32,450 --> 00:28:38,590
+على الاعتقاد أن الرسول منوحي إليه بشرع جديد لذلك
+
+284
+00:28:38,590 --> 00:28:42,850
+يمكن لنا أن نسجل هنا ثلاثة فروق إن شئتم تسجلوه
+
+285
+00:28:42,850 --> 00:28:51,610
+الأول الرسول يأتي بشرع جديد النبي
+
+286
+00:28:51,610 --> 00:28:58,650
+لا يأتي بشرع جديد إنما يأتي لتقرير شرع من قبله
+
+287
+00:28:58,650 --> 00:29:06,900
+وهذا واضحالرسول يأتي بشرع جديد بالكلية كاملا يعني
+
+288
+00:29:06,900 --> 00:29:12,960
+يأتي شرعه ناسخا لكل أحكام شريعة الرسول الذي سبقه
+
+289
+00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:19,780
+النبي لا يأتي بشرع جديد، إنما يأتي متابعا لهذا
+
+290
+00:29:19,780 --> 00:29:26,060
+الرسول الذي قد مات فيحمل الناس، يأمرهم، يحثهم على
+
+291
+00:29:26,060 --> 00:29:29,580
+العمل بشريعة الرسول السابق الذي مات قبله
+
+292
+00:29:34,490 --> 00:29:42,030
+الرسول في الغالب ينزل عليه كتاب كتاب
+
+293
+00:29:42,030 --> 00:29:51,610
+سماوية النبي في الغالب لا ينزل عليه كتاب الثالث
+
+294
+00:29:51,610 --> 00:29:54,830
+الرسول
+
+295
+00:29:54,830 --> 00:29:57,330
+يُبعث في قوم كافرين
+
+296
+00:30:02,570 --> 00:30:12,990
+لذلك غالبا يكذب النبي يبعث في قوم مؤمنين الرسول
+
+297
+00:30:12,990 --> 00:30:18,250
+يبعث في قوم كافرين فبعضهم يصدق وبعضهم يكذب النبي
+
+298
+00:30:18,250 --> 00:30:23,110
+يبعث في قوم مؤمنين يحملهم على طاعة الله تعالى
+
+299
+00:30:23,110 --> 00:30:28,670
+واتباع الشرع الذي جاء به الرسول وهنا نؤكد القاعدة
+
+300
+00:30:28,670 --> 00:30:34,180
+التي قال بها أصحاب الرأي الثانيأن الرسول أخصه من
+
+301
+00:30:34,180 --> 00:30:43,680
+النبي لا شك في ذلك هذا كلام صحيح فكل رسول نبي وليس
+
+302
+00:30:43,680 --> 00:30:49,460
+كل نبي رسول نقرأ
+
+303
+00:30:49,460 --> 00:30:53,880
+هذا الكلام قال الشيخ عبدالله بن زيد المحمود رئيس
+
+304
+00:30:53,880 --> 00:30:59,060
+المحاكم الشرعية والشؤون الدينية بقطر قالوأما
+
+305
+00:30:59,060 --> 00:31:02,760
+التعريف بقولهم إن الرسول هو من أوحي إليه بشرع أمر
+
+306
+00:31:02,760 --> 00:31:06,720
+بتبليغه والنبي هو من أوحي إليه بشرع ولم يُأمر
+
+307
+00:31:06,720 --> 00:31:13,060
+بتبليغه فهذا يعد من الخطأ المتناقلالذي انتشر
+
+308
+00:31:13,060 --> 00:31:18,220
+واشتهر على ألسنة الناس وفي عقائده وفي عقائدهم في
+
+309
+00:31:18,220 --> 00:31:23,920
+كل بلد وحتى ولبس على العلماء الكبار فظنوه حقا وهو
+
+310
+00:31:23,920 --> 00:31:28,620
+لا صحة له إذ لا يوجد نبي أوحي إليه بشرع من الأمر
+
+311
+00:31:28,620 --> 00:31:33,680
+والنهي والفرائض والأحكام والحلال والحرام ثم يصر
+
+312
+00:31:33,680 --> 00:31:38,560
+على كتمانه وعدم بيانه لكون هذا ينافي مقتدى الرسالة
+
+313
+00:31:38,560 --> 00:31:46,050
+والأمانة فكلهممكلفون بنشر الدعوة وتبليغ الرسالة
+
+314
+00:31:46,050 --> 00:31:51,370
+لذلك يا أخواتي فالرسول مكلف بالتبليغ وكذلك النبي
+
+315
+00:31:51,370 --> 00:31:57,150
+ماله مكلف بالتبليغ وإن تفاوتوا في مدى الاستجابة
+
+316
+00:31:57,150 --> 00:32:03,370
+لهم النبي يعمل في بحيط نظيف بين المؤمنين فيصدقونه
+
+317
+00:32:03,370 --> 00:32:11,250
+ويوقرونه ويؤمنون به ويقبلون عليهأما الرسول فيعمل
+
+318
+00:32:11,250 --> 00:32:17,390
+في وسط أناس كافرين فبعضهم يؤمن وبعضهم يكفر نستطيع
+
+319
+00:32:17,390 --> 00:32:26,350
+أن نخلص مما سبق إلى هذه النتائج نستخلصها مما سبق
+
+320
+00:32:26,350 --> 00:32:31,430
+مما تكلمنا به النتيجة الأولى أن كل من النبوة
+
+321
+00:32:31,430 --> 00:32:35,830
+والرسالة استفاء رباني وإعلام إلهي هذا ما يجب أن
+
+322
+00:32:35,830 --> 00:32:42,210
+نعتقد بهالنبوة والرسالة لا تكون بالكسب والاجتهادلا
+
+323
+00:32:42,210 --> 00:32:47,030
+تكون بالكسب والاجتهاد إنما هي استفاء واجتباء من
+
+324
+00:32:47,030 --> 00:32:51,010
+الله تبارك وتعالى فالله عز وجل هو الذي يجتبي
+
+325
+00:32:51,010 --> 00:32:57,230
+ويختار من يحمل وحيه إن الله اصطفى آدم ونوحى و آل
+
+326
+00:32:57,230 --> 00:33:01,150
+إبراهيم وآل عمران على العالمين قال يا موسى إن
+
+327
+00:33:01,150 --> 00:33:07,270
+اصطفيتك على الناس برسالاتي و بكلامي فخذ ما آتيتك
+
+328
+00:33:07,270 --> 00:33:13,020
+وكن من الشاكرين لا تكون النبوةبالاكتساب،
+
+329
+00:33:13,020 --> 00:33:18,080
+بالاجتهاد، لا يُعقل ولا تكون النبوة بأن يجلس
+
+330
+00:33:18,080 --> 00:33:24,040
+الواحد مثلا في الظل أو في الشمس أو يعتزل الناس
+
+331
+00:33:24,040 --> 00:33:29,380
+فيجلس في مغارة أو بعيدا عن الناس ويعتقد أنه ستصفو
+
+332
+00:33:29,380 --> 00:33:34,700
+نفسه وتسشف وستشف روحه ويتنزل عليه الوحي، هذا لن
+
+333
+00:33:34,700 --> 00:33:41,340
+يكونالنبوة استفاء واختيار رباني الله تبارك وتعالى
+
+334
+00:33:41,340 --> 00:33:46,420
+كما قال سبحانه وتعالى الله أعلم حيث يجعل رسالته
+
+335
+00:33:46,420 --> 00:33:52,860
+الأمر الثاني أن الوصف بالرسالة مغاير للوصف بالنبوة
+
+336
+00:33:52,860 --> 00:33:58,040
+و هذا تحدثنا فيه الآن و أثبتناه بشكل جلي يشهد لذلك
+
+337
+00:33:58,040 --> 00:34:03,180
+قول الله عز وجل في موسى واذكر في الكتاب موسىإنه
+
+338
+00:34:03,180 --> 00:34:08,400
+كان مخلصا وكان رسولا نبيا، أوضحنا هذا الأمر، كما
+
+339
+00:34:08,400 --> 00:34:12,940
+يشهد له عطف أحدهم على الآخر في قول الله تعالى وما
+
+340
+00:34:12,940 --> 00:34:19,500
+أرسلنا من قبلك من رسول ولا نبي إلا إذا تمنا، ألقى
+
+341
+00:34:19,500 --> 00:34:26,470
+الشيطان في أمنيته، إذا الإرسالالعطف هنا يدل على
+
+342
+00:34:26,470 --> 00:34:31,830
+التغير بين النبي وبين الرسول الأمر الثالث يجب أن
+
+343
+00:34:31,830 --> 00:34:36,170
+يكون واضحا أيضا أن الاستفاء بالنبوة سابق على
+
+344
+00:34:36,170 --> 00:34:41,810
+الاستفاء بالرسالة الاستفاء بالنبوة سابق على
+
+345
+00:34:41,810 --> 00:34:46,890
+الاستفاء بالرسالة أول اتصال لله تبارك وتعالى بأحد
+
+346
+00:34:46,890 --> 00:34:55,220
+خلقه هذه تعتبر نبوة ثم بعد ذلك يرسل هذا النبييشهد
+
+347
+00:34:55,220 --> 00:35:02,000
+لذلك آيتان في الكتاب الحكيم في القرآن قوله تعالى
+
+348
+00:35:02,000 --> 00:35:07,400
+وكم أرسلنا من نبي في الأولين وقوله تعالى يا أيها
+
+349
+00:35:07,400 --> 00:35:14,400
+النبي إن أرسلناك شاهدا ومبشرا ونذيرا أي نعم فهذه
+
+350
+00:35:14,400 --> 00:35:19,460
+أدلة تدل على أن أول اتصال يكون نبوة ثم بعد ذلك
+
+351
+00:35:19,460 --> 00:35:26,110
+يرسل وهذا واضح من خلال حديث أبي ذرحديثة بذر بين
+
+352
+00:35:26,110 --> 00:35:32,670
+لنا أن عدد الأنبياء مائة وأربع وعشرون ألفا من
+
+353
+00:35:32,670 --> 00:35:36,930
+ارتقى منهم من
+
+354
+00:35:36,930 --> 00:35:46,130
+أرسل منهم فقط ثلاثمائة وخمسة عشر فالعدد كبير جمّا
+
+355
+00:35:46,130 --> 00:35:52,400
+غفيرا مائة وأربع وعشرين ألف نبي لكن الذي أرسلهفقط
+
+356
+00:35:52,400 --> 00:35:56,800
+315 النتيجة
+
+357
+00:35:56,800 --> 00:36:00,820
+الرابعة أن الله قد يقتصر على الاستفاء بالنبوة
+
+358
+00:36:00,820 --> 00:36:06,720
+بالنسبة لبعض الأنبياء دون الرسالة ليس كل من اختاره
+
+359
+00:36:06,720 --> 00:36:12,260
+الله عز وجل لوحيه نبيا ليس كل من ابتعثاه الله
+
+360
+00:36:12,260 --> 00:36:19,730
+سيكون رسولاوهذا يبين هو أيضا حديثة بضرر، وعدد
+
+361
+00:36:19,730 --> 00:36:27,030
+الفارق الواضح بين عدد الأنبياء وعدد المرسلين، عدد
+
+362
+00:36:27,030 --> 00:36:33,170
+المرسلين قليل بالنسبة لعدد الأنبياء، 315 من 124
+
+363
+00:36:33,170 --> 00:36:38,660
+ألف نبي، وإن شئت أن أضرب مثلايوضح هذه المسألة مع
+
+364
+00:36:38,660 --> 00:36:43,260
+الفارق بطبيعة الحال مع اعتقادنا بأن مرتبة النبوة
+
+365
+00:36:43,260 --> 00:36:49,360
+الرسالة أسمى وأعلى وأعظممن كل الشهادات العلمية
+
+366
+00:36:49,360 --> 00:36:54,380
+التي يحصلها الناس لكن المثال للتوضيح فقط ليس كل من
+
+367
+00:36:54,380 --> 00:36:59,480
+حصل درجة الماجستير شرطا أن يحصل درجة الدكتوراه
+
+368
+00:36:59,480 --> 00:37:03,480
+فهناك كثير من الناس تقف همتهم عند الماجستير ويقول
+
+369
+00:37:03,480 --> 00:37:07,940
+خلاص انتهى الأمر يكفي إلى هنا أحمد الله تبارك
+
+370
+00:37:07,940 --> 00:37:11,000
+وتعالى على هذه النعمة فغيري بقي على درجة ال
+
+371
+00:37:11,000 --> 00:37:14,900
+baccalaureateلكن بعض هؤلاء الذين حصلوا درجة
+
+372
+00:37:14,900 --> 00:37:19,460
+الماجستير، بعضهم، لعله حصل درجة الماجستير، مائتي
+
+373
+00:37:19,460 --> 00:37:24,520
+شخص، لكن من يحصل درجة الدكتوراه منهم، لعله أعداد
+
+374
+00:37:24,520 --> 00:37:29,580
+يعني تعد على أصابع اليد، القلة من الناس، من إيه
+
+375
+00:37:29,580 --> 00:37:37,910
+يفكر، لعله يعني للتكلفة أو لصعوبة الأمرهذا يعني
+
+376
+00:37:37,910 --> 00:37:45,330
+بياننا الفرق بين النبي والرسول.الان نأتي الى وجوب
+
+377
+00:37:45,330 --> 00:37:51,090
+الإيمان بجميع الأنبياء والمرسلين.هذا الأمر متمم
+
+378
+00:37:51,090 --> 00:37:58,490
+متمم للإيمان بهذا الرقم.فالإيمان بالأنبياء
+
+379
+00:37:58,490 --> 00:38:04,030
+والمرسلين يجب أن يكون بهم جميعا ولا يجوز الكفر بأي
+
+380
+00:38:04,030 --> 00:38:10,680
+نبي منهم.بأي نبي منهم يدل على ذلك أدلة كثيرة منها
+
+381
+00:38:10,680 --> 00:38:16,080
+قول الله عز وجل أن الله عز وجل أمر سبحانه وتعالى
+
+382
+00:38:16,080 --> 00:38:21,680
+بالإيمان بهم أمر بالإيمان بهم فقال سبحانه وتعالى
+
+383
+00:38:21,680 --> 00:38:27,540
+فآمنوا بالله ورسله هذا يدل على وجوب الإيمان
+
+384
+00:38:27,540 --> 00:38:33,700
+بالأنبياء والمرسلين جميعا وقوله تعالى ومن يكفر
+
+385
+00:38:33,700 --> 00:38:41,950
+باللهوملائكته وكتبه ورسوله واليوم الآخر فقد ضل
+
+386
+00:38:41,950 --> 00:38:46,350
+ضلالا بعيدا والذي يضل ضلالا بعيدا بالتاكيد يكون قد
+
+387
+00:38:46,350 --> 00:38:51,490
+خرج عن هذا الدين بمعنى ارتد وخرج من حضيرة الإسلام
+
+388
+00:38:51,490 --> 00:38:58,710
+إلى الكفر والعصيان والعياذ بالله أمر آخر يدل على
+
+389
+00:38:58,710 --> 00:39:02,870
+وجوب الإيمان بالأنبياء والمرسلين الإيمان بهم جاء
+
+390
+00:39:02,870 --> 00:39:07,310
+في المرتبة الرابعةفي المرتبة الرابعة، سواء في
+
+391
+00:39:07,310 --> 00:39:11,110
+الآية القرأنية التي امتدح الله عز وجل بها النبي
+
+392
+00:39:11,110 --> 00:39:15,050
+والمؤمنين بيه في أواخر سورة البقرة، آمن الرسول بما
+
+393
+00:39:15,050 --> 00:39:19,590
+أنزل إليهم ربه والمؤمنون، كل أمن بالله وملائكته
+
+394
+00:39:19,590 --> 00:39:24,800
+وكتبه ورسله، أو في عديد جبريللما سأله ما الإيمان
+
+395
+00:39:24,800 --> 00:39:29,800
+قال الإيمان أن تؤمن بالله وملائكته وكتبه ورسله
+
+396
+00:39:29,800 --> 00:39:35,320
+فالإيمان بهم جميعا على حد سواء لا نفرق بين أحد من
+
+397
+00:39:35,320 --> 00:39:40,020
+رسله في أصل الإيمان بهم في أصل الإيمان بهم لكن يا
+
+398
+00:39:40,020 --> 00:39:45,080
+أخواتي كيف يكون الإيمان بالأنبياء والمرسلين هذه
+
+399
+00:39:45,080 --> 00:39:50,860
+قضية بكل بساطة نأخذها من قوله تعالى ولقد أرسلنا
+
+400
+00:39:50,860 --> 00:39:57,480
+رسلا من قبلكمنهم من قصصنا عليك ومنهم من لم نقصص
+
+401
+00:39:57,480 --> 00:40:03,080
+عليك فالأنبياء والمرسلين الذين قصهم الله علينا
+
+402
+00:40:03,080 --> 00:40:10,320
+نؤمن بهم إيمانا تفصيليا والأنبياء والمرسلين الذين
+
+403
+00:40:10,320 --> 00:40:17,300
+لم يقصهم علينا نؤمن بهم إيمانا إجماليا الذين قصهم
+
+404
+00:40:17,300 --> 00:40:20,680
+علينا بمعنى ذكر لنا الله عز وجل أسماءهم
+
+405
+00:40:23,620 --> 00:40:28,440
+أوصافهم، عباداتهم، أسماء الكتب التي نزلت عليهم، ما
+
+406
+00:40:28,440 --> 00:40:33,420
+حصل بينهم وبين أقوامهم، ذكر لنا معجزاتهم، هؤلاء
+
+407
+00:40:33,420 --> 00:40:38,820
+نؤمن بهم بهذا التفصيل، منهم من قصصنا عليك، إيمانا
+
+408
+00:40:38,820 --> 00:40:44,560
+تفصيلياوما لم نقصص ومنهم ما لم نقصص عليك نؤمن بهم
+
+409
+00:40:44,560 --> 00:40:50,740
+إيمانا إجماليا فهؤلاء الأنبياء اللي 124 ألف نبي
+
+410
+00:40:50,740 --> 00:40:57,960
+هذا العدد الكبير جما غفيرا عددا كثيفا كثيرا هؤلاء
+
+411
+00:40:57,960 --> 00:41:06,080
+نؤمن بهم إيمانا إجماليا نؤمن بأنهم كانوا رجالا من
+
+412
+00:41:06,080 --> 00:41:13,530
+الرجال يعني أوحى الله عز وجل إليهمبشرعه وأنهم
+
+413
+00:41:13,530 --> 00:41:17,550
+بلغوا الرسالة وأدوا الأمانة ونصحوا أمامهم ولم
+
+414
+00:41:17,550 --> 00:41:22,130
+يقصروا في ذلك ولم يدخروا وسعًا في تبليغ الوحي الذي
+
+415
+00:41:22,130 --> 00:41:27,590
+أوحى الله عز وجل به إليهم هذا بصورة عامة بصورة
+
+416
+00:41:27,590 --> 00:41:35,030
+إجمالية هذا هو الإيمان الإجمالي بالتأكيد الإنكار
+
+417
+00:41:35,030 --> 00:41:42,520
+أي نبي من الأنبياء أو تقريبهمن كفر بنبي أو كذبه
+
+418
+00:41:42,520 --> 00:41:47,780
+فقد ارتد عن الدين، هذا ما أجمع عليه العلماء، هو
+
+419
+00:41:47,780 --> 00:41:52,980
+كافر في منظور هذا الدين، هو كافر في منظور هذا
+
+420
+00:41:52,980 --> 00:41:59,260
+الدين، يعتبر مرتد عن الإسلامومن يكفر بالله
+
+421
+00:41:59,260 --> 00:42:04,740
+وملائكته وكتبه ورسله واليوم الآخر فقد ضل ضلالا
+
+422
+00:42:04,740 --> 00:42:13,540
+بعيدا، ضل ضلالا بعيدا، الذي يكذب نبيا هو يشكك في
+
+423
+00:42:13,540 --> 00:42:17,540
+حكمة الله عز وجل في اختياره لهذا الشخصفالله عز و
+
+424
+00:42:17,540 --> 00:42:24,240
+جل قال الله أعلم حيث يجعل رسالته، وهو يقول هذا
+
+425
+00:42:24,240 --> 00:42:28,940
+النبي كاذب، كذب أو قصر أو أخفى شيئا من الوحي الذي
+
+426
+00:42:28,940 --> 00:42:35,510
+أوحاه الله إليه.فالذي يكذب نبيا هو كافر بهذا الدين
+
+427
+00:42:35,510 --> 00:42:40,750
+مرتد عن هذا الإسلام نقف إلى هذا الحد إن شاء الله
+
+428
+00:42:40,750 --> 00:42:45,530
+في هذا اللقاء وفي المحاضرة القادمة إن شاء الله
+
+429
+00:42:45,530 --> 00:42:50,410
+تعالى نتحدث في عدد الأنبياء والمرسلين والأنبياء
+
+430
+00:42:50,410 --> 00:42:55,030
+والمرسلون المذكرون في القرآن الكريم ثم نتكلم أيضا
+
+431
+00:42:55,030 --> 00:42:59,670
+في حاجة الناس إلى إرسال الرسل أقول قول هذا والسلام
+
+432
+00:42:59,670 --> 00:43:01,210
+عليكم ورحمة الله وبركاته
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/QD-moFOVlRM_postprocess.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/QD-moFOVlRM_postprocess.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..dc2386b254094bd8bd420bff8c85de7d72e67924
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/QD-moFOVlRM_postprocess.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1664 @@
+1
+00:00:20,870 --> 00:00:23,770
+أعوذ بالله السميع العليم من الشيطان الرجيم بسم
+
+2
+00:00:23,770 --> 00:00:28,110
+الله الرحمن الرحيم الحمد لله رب العالمين وأصلي
+
+3
+00:00:28,110 --> 00:00:32,630
+وأسلم على رسول الله الأمين محمد بن عبد الله الصادق
+
+4
+00:00:32,630 --> 00:00:37,850
+الأمين صلى الله عليه وعلى آله وصحبه وسلم أجمعين
+
+5
+00:00:37,850 --> 00:00:41,850
+اللهم لا سهل إلا ما جعلته سهل وأنت تجعل الحزن إن
+
+6
+00:00:41,850 --> 00:00:46,150
+شئت سهل اللهم أعلمنا ما ينفعنا وانفعنا بما علمتنا
+
+7
+00:00:46,150 --> 00:00:51,750
+وزدنا علما إنك أنت العليم الحكيم وبعدموضوعنا اليوم
+
+8
+00:00:51,750 --> 00:00:59,270
+علامات الساعة الكبرى وهي كثيرة أيضًا ذكر النبي صلى
+
+9
+00:00:59,270 --> 00:01:03,450
+الله عليه وسلم منها عشرًا في حديث حذيفة ابن أسيد
+
+10
+00:01:03,450 --> 00:01:09,010
+الغفاري قال رضي الله عنه طلع علينا النبي صلى الله
+
+11
+00:01:09,010 --> 00:01:16,090
+عليه وسلم يوما فوجدنا نتذاكر فقال ما تذاكرون قالوا
+
+12
+00:01:16,090 --> 00:01:20,790
+نتذاكر الساعة يا رسول اللهفقال صلى الله عليه وسلم
+
+13
+00:01:20,790 --> 00:01:26,350
+لا تقوم الساعة حتى تروا عشر آيات فذكر النبي صلى
+
+14
+00:01:26,350 --> 00:01:32,750
+الله عليه وسلم فذكر الدخان وخروج الدابة وطلوع
+
+15
+00:01:32,750 --> 00:01:38,250
+الشمس من مغربها والدجال ونزول عيسى عليه السلام
+
+16
+00:01:38,250 --> 00:01:45,550
+وثلاثة خسوف خسف بالمشرق وخسف بالمغرب وخسف بجزيرة
+
+17
+00:01:45,550 --> 00:01:54,640
+العرب ثمأخر ذلك نار تخرج من قعر عدن تسوق الناس إلى
+
+18
+00:01:54,640 --> 00:02:01,560
+محشرهم تقيل معهم حيث قالوا وتنزل معهم حيث نزلوا أو
+
+19
+00:02:01,560 --> 00:02:06,500
+كما ذكر النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم هذا الحديث يعني
+
+20
+00:02:06,500 --> 00:02:10,860
+يجمع لنا عشر آيات من علامات الساعة الكبرى والملاحظ
+
+21
+00:02:10,860 --> 00:02:17,180
+أنه لا يذكر لا يذكر ظهور المهدي المنتظر محمد ابن
+
+22
+00:02:17,180 --> 00:02:22,670
+عبد اللهلكن هذه العلامة محمد ابن عبد الله، ظهور
+
+23
+00:02:22,670 --> 00:02:26,390
+المهدي المنتظر، هي علامة من العلامات، علامة من
+
+24
+00:02:26,390 --> 00:02:30,210
+علامات الساعة، بعض العلماء عدها من علامات الساعة
+
+25
+00:02:30,210 --> 00:02:34,070
+الصغرة، وبعض العلماء عدها من علامات الساعة الكبرى
+
+26
+00:02:34,570 --> 00:02:39,770
+من عدها من علامات الساعة الصغرى عدها اخر علامة من
+
+27
+00:02:39,770 --> 00:02:43,630
+العلامات الصغرى ومن عدها من علامات الساعة الكبرى
+
+28
+00:02:43,630 --> 00:02:47,990
+اعتبرها اول علامة من علامات الساعة الكبرى وهذا ما
+
+29
+00:02:47,990 --> 00:02:52,610
+سنسير عليه ان شاء الله تعالى فالمهدي عليه السلام
+
+30
+00:02:54,350 --> 00:02:59,350
+الاعتقاد به عقيدة من عقائد أهل السنة والجماعة
+
+31
+00:02:59,350 --> 00:03:05,230
+عقيدة لازمة وواجب شرعي لأن الأحاديث وردت بشأنه
+
+32
+00:03:05,230 --> 00:03:11,570
+متواترة الحديث وردت بشأنه متواترة بلغت حد التواتر
+
+33
+00:03:11,570 --> 00:03:16,650
+المعنوي معنى التواتر المعنوي أن يذكر عدد من الصحاب
+
+34
+00:03:16,650 --> 00:03:22,430
+الكرام والرواه للأحاديث النبويةأمرا من الأمور
+
+35
+00:03:22,430 --> 00:03:29,670
+ليسوا متفقين فيه لفظا لكن كلهم مجمعون على معنى
+
+36
+00:03:29,670 --> 00:03:34,510
+معين يخبرون به عن النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم فهذا ما
+
+37
+00:03:34,510 --> 00:03:39,530
+يسمى التواتر المعنوي ونحن ان شاء الله في دراستنا
+
+38
+00:03:39,530 --> 00:03:44,870
+لهذا الموضوع سنعول تحديدا على الصحيح منها والحسن
+
+39
+00:03:44,870 --> 00:03:50,700
+كما بينه علماء الحديثعليهم رحمة الله إذا فعقيدة
+
+40
+00:03:50,700 --> 00:03:55,160
+المهدي عقيدة من عقايد أهل السنة والجماعة سنذكر
+
+41
+00:03:55,160 --> 00:03:58,920
+جملة من الأحاديث التي يذكر فيها النبي صلى الله
+
+42
+00:03:58,920 --> 00:04:03,800
+عليه وسلم هذا الرجل الصالح الذي يظهر في آخر الزمان
+
+43
+00:04:04,230 --> 00:04:09,190
+والذي اسمه محمد ابن عبد الله صلى الله عليه وسلم
+
+44
+00:04:09,190 --> 00:04:14,630
+كما نصة الأحاديث فاسمه يوافق اسم النبي واسم أبيه
+
+45
+00:04:14,630 --> 00:04:20,910
+يوافق اسم أبي النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم فعند أبي
+
+46
+00:04:20,910 --> 00:04:25,690
+داود وابن ماجا والحاكم عن أم سلمة رضي الله عنها
+
+47
+00:04:25,690 --> 00:04:31,720
+بسند صحيح قال صلى الله عليه وسلم المهدي من عترتيمن
+
+48
+00:04:31,720 --> 00:04:37,520
+ولد فاطمة المهدي من عترتي والعترة هم أقارب الرجل
+
+49
+00:04:37,520 --> 00:04:45,630
+من صلبه البني عمومته النبي من آل البيتعفوا المهدي
+
+50
+00:04:45,630 --> 00:04:49,710
+من أهل البيت من عطرته من أقارب النبي صلى الله عليه
+
+51
+00:04:49,710 --> 00:04:55,130
+وسلم قال من ولد فاطمة من ولد فاطمة وأهل السنة
+
+52
+00:04:55,130 --> 00:04:59,710
+والجماعة يعتقدون أنه من نسل الحسن رضوان الله عليه
+
+53
+00:04:59,710 --> 00:05:05,190
+رضوان الله عليه الحسن ابن فاطمة ابن علي ابن أبي
+
+54
+00:05:05,190 --> 00:05:11,300
+طالب ابن فاطمة بنت رسول اللهزوجة علي ابن أبي طالب
+
+55
+00:05:11,300 --> 00:05:15,660
+رضوان الله عليه في حديث آخر يقول النبي صلى الله
+
+56
+00:05:15,660 --> 00:05:20,080
+عليه وسلم لو لم يبقى من الدنيا إلا يوم لطول الله
+
+57
+00:05:20,080 --> 00:05:26,190
+ذلك اليوم حتى يبعث فيه رجل من أهل بيتي يواطقبمعنى
+
+58
+00:05:26,190 --> 00:05:32,450
+يوافق اسمه اسمي واسم أبيه اسم أبي يملأ الأرض قسطا
+
+59
+00:05:32,450 --> 00:05:38,630
+وعدلا كما ملئت ظلما وجورا يستفيد من هذا الحديث أن
+
+60
+00:05:38,630 --> 00:05:43,990
+ظهور المهدي عليه السلام يظهر بعد أن تمتلئ الأرض
+
+61
+00:05:43,990 --> 00:05:50,830
+ظلما وجورا فيأتي هو لنشر العدل ولإقامة الحق في
+
+62
+00:05:50,830 --> 00:05:57,880
+ديار المسلمين أو بين المسلمينأيضًا من الأحاديث لو
+
+63
+00:05:57,880 --> 00:06:02,600
+لم يبقى من الدهر إلا يوم لبعث الله رجلا من أهل
+
+64
+00:06:02,600 --> 00:06:08,240
+بيتي كما ذكرنا هو من بيت النبي من آل بيت النبوة
+
+65
+00:06:08,240 --> 00:06:14,860
+يملؤها عدلا كما ملئت جورا وعن عبدالله ابن مسعود
+
+66
+00:06:14,860 --> 00:06:18,020
+رضي الله عنه عن النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم قال لا
+
+67
+00:06:18,020 --> 00:06:23,520
+تذهب الدنيا حتى يملك العرب رجل من أهل بيتييواقع
+
+68
+00:06:23,520 --> 00:06:30,480
+اسمه اسمه فالمهدي اذا خلاصة من هذه الحديث رجل شاب
+
+69
+00:06:31,130 --> 00:06:35,810
+من المسلمين من أهل بيت النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم من
+
+70
+00:06:35,810 --> 00:06:40,910
+ولد الحسن ابن فاطمة بنت رسول الله اسمه محمد ابن
+
+71
+00:06:40,910 --> 00:06:45,310
+عبدالله اي اسمه على اسم النبي واسم أبيه على اسم
+
+72
+00:06:45,310 --> 00:06:50,470
+أبي النبي وهو أحد الخلفاء الراشدين والأئم المهديين
+
+73
+00:06:50,470 --> 00:06:56,110
+وليس هو بالمنتظر اللذي تزعمه رافضة الشيعة فالشيعة
+
+74
+00:06:56,110 --> 00:07:03,820
+يعتقدون أيضا بالمهدييعتقدون أيضًا بمهدي منتظر
+
+75
+00:07:03,820 --> 00:07:14,520
+لديهم يعتقدون أنه ولد سنة 256 هجري وأنه خبأه والده
+
+76
+00:07:14,520 --> 00:07:21,100
+في بيت أو سرداب في مدينة سام الراء مدينة غرب
+
+77
+00:07:21,100 --> 00:07:26,680
+العراق على الحدود العراقية السورية وهو من يومها
+
+78
+00:07:26,680 --> 00:07:33,790
+مختبئمختبئ وأنه سيظهر آخر الزمان وأنه سينتقم عندما
+
+79
+00:07:33,790 --> 00:07:42,310
+يخرج سينتقم من أعداء أجداده يقصدون من من ظلم في
+
+80
+00:07:42,310 --> 00:07:48,550
+اعتقادهم من من ظلم علي بن أبي طالب واغتصب منه منصب
+
+81
+00:07:48,550 --> 00:07:54,430
+الخلافة يقصدون بذلك أبو بكر الصديق وعمر بن الخطاب
+
+82
+00:07:54,430 --> 00:08:01,770
+وعثمان بن عفان ومن عاونهم من أمثال عائشة والصحابة
+
+83
+00:08:01,770 --> 00:08:09,090
+الكرام هكذا يعتقدون وما يعتقدونهما يعتقدون به من
+
+84
+00:08:09,090 --> 00:08:15,810
+أنه مهدي يعيش إلى هذا الزمان بعد أكثر من ألف عام
+
+85
+00:08:15,810 --> 00:08:23,210
+هذا مجرد وهم مجرد أسطورة لا حقيقة لها حقيقة لا
+
+86
+00:08:23,210 --> 00:08:29,050
+حقيقة لها فلم يثبت لم يثبت لا عقلا ولا نصا
+
+87
+00:08:31,700 --> 00:08:38,420
+وجود واحد من الناس يعيش بهذا العمر إلا فيما كان من
+
+88
+00:08:38,420 --> 00:08:42,520
+الأمم السابقة وقد مضى فذكر النبي صلى الله عليه
+
+89
+00:08:42,520 --> 00:08:46,420
+وسلم في الحديث أعمار أمتي بين الستين والسبعين
+
+90
+00:08:47,000 --> 00:08:54,100
+وبالتالي هذا زاد عن هذا العدد كثيرا جدا جدا جدا
+
+91
+00:08:54,100 --> 00:09:00,380
+وبالتالي ليس معقولا أن يكون مثل هذا الإنسان يعيش
+
+92
+00:09:01,330 --> 00:09:05,510
+الى يومنا هذا، هم يعتقدون به، يعتقدون بوجوده
+
+93
+00:09:05,510 --> 00:09:12,530
+ويدعون الله ويتوصلون اليه بأن يخرج اليهم دائما
+
+94
+00:09:12,530 --> 00:09:19,030
+يدعون اللهم يعني قدس سره وعجل فرجه، هكذا يقولون في
+
+95
+00:09:19,030 --> 00:09:26,550
+أدعيتهمعلى كل حال وحول معتقده .. حول معتقدهم في
+
+96
+00:09:26,550 --> 00:09:31,990
+المهدي يعتقدون انه غابة غيبة صغر ثم غابة غيبة كبرى
+
+97
+00:09:31,990 --> 00:09:43,610
+والان يعني اخترعوا او استحدثوا منصبجديدا لهم ما
+
+98
+00:09:43,610 --> 00:09:50,270
+يسمى ولاية الفقيه بدلا منهم بدلا من المهدي بدلا من
+
+99
+00:09:50,270 --> 00:09:55,010
+المهدي فهو الذي يقود الشيعة هو الذي يقود الشيعة
+
+100
+00:09:55,010 --> 00:10:01,730
+حتى يظهر المهدي الذي يعتقدون به وفي اعتقادناأن
+
+101
+00:10:01,730 --> 00:10:09,970
+اعتقادهم هذا باطل وأن المهديهم وهم واسطورة وأنه لن
+
+102
+00:10:09,970 --> 00:10:15,790
+يخرج لأنه أصلا غير موجود وهذا ما نعتقد به جازمين
+
+103
+00:10:15,790 --> 00:10:19,530
+إذا هذه عقيدة أهل السنة والجماعة في المهدي عليه
+
+104
+00:10:19,530 --> 00:10:23,470
+السلام ذكر النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم صفات المهدي
+
+105
+00:10:23,470 --> 00:10:28,200
+حتى لا تنطلي على أحدحتى لا تنطلي على أحد فلنتحدث
+
+106
+00:10:28,200 --> 00:10:32,300
+عن صفته الخلقية ومدة حكمه ذكر النبي صلى الله عليه
+
+107
+00:10:32,300 --> 00:10:36,080
+وسلم ذلك فبالحديث عن أبي سعيد قال صلى الله عليه
+
+108
+00:10:36,080 --> 00:10:42,200
+وسلم المهدي مني من عطرتي من أهل البيت أجلى الجبهة
+
+109
+00:10:42,200 --> 00:10:48,660
+بمعنى منحسر الشار بمعنى جبهة واسعة أقنع الأنف أقنع
+
+110
+00:10:48,660 --> 00:10:55,060
+بمعنى طويل الأنفدقيق الأرنوبة فيه تقوس، فيه إيه؟
+
+111
+00:10:55,060 --> 00:10:59,260
+تقوس، وها دي صفة جمال في الرجال والنساء، يملأ
+
+112
+00:10:59,260 --> 00:11:03,380
+الأرض قصدا وعدلا كما ملئ الظلمان كما ملئ الجوران
+
+113
+00:11:03,380 --> 00:11:08,060
+وظلمان، يملكوا سبع سنين، بمعنى إنه بيحكم سبع
+
+114
+00:11:08,060 --> 00:11:16,330
+سنوات، يحكم سبع سنوات، وهذا يكون في آخر الزمانفي
+
+115
+00:11:16,330 --> 00:11:22,610
+الحديث أيضا يقول في آخر أمتي خليفة يحس المال حسيا
+
+116
+00:11:22,610 --> 00:11:30,810
+ولا يعده عدا وفي رواية من خلفائكم خليفة يحس المال
+
+117
+00:11:30,810 --> 00:11:36,750
+حسيا لا يعده عدا يحسي يعني ينصر المال هكذا نصرا
+
+118
+00:11:36,750 --> 00:11:42,990
+على الناس لا يخشى الفقر ولا يعده عدا هذا يدل على
+
+119
+00:11:42,990 --> 00:11:49,960
+الرخاءالرخاء الذي يكون والنعيم ووفرة المنتوج فالله
+
+120
+00:11:49,960 --> 00:11:55,020
+عز وجل يأمر السماء أن تجود بمائها ويأمر الأرض أن
+
+121
+00:11:55,020 --> 00:12:01,320
+تجود بنباتها في زمانه يكثر الخير وهذا اندل على شيء
+
+122
+00:12:01,320 --> 00:12:04,980
+فانما يدل كما قلنا على كثرة الغلائم والفتوحات في
+
+123
+00:12:04,980 --> 00:12:09,360
+زمانه وكثرة الملاحم بين المسلمين وبين أعدائهم
+
+124
+00:12:09,360 --> 00:12:14,150
+بداية ظهور المهدي عليه السلامبداية ظهور المهدي
+
+125
+00:12:14,150 --> 00:12:20,770
+عليه السلام يكون ظهوره بعد موت خليفة بعد موت خليفة
+
+126
+00:12:20,770 --> 00:12:27,010
+فيقتتل أبناء هذا الخليفة على هذا المنصب بعد موته
+
+127
+00:12:27,010 --> 00:12:35,570
+يقتتلون فلا يرضي ذلك عامة المسلمينفيقض الله تبارك
+
+128
+00:12:35,570 --> 00:12:38,770
+وتعالى يقيد الله تبارك وتعالى لهذه الأمة في ذاك
+
+129
+00:12:38,770 --> 00:12:44,450
+الزمن وهذه مشيئته سبحانه وتعالى هذا الرجل ليكون
+
+130
+00:12:44,450 --> 00:12:52,830
+خليفة للمسلمين فيعرفه الناس يعرفه الناس بصفاته
+
+131
+00:12:52,830 --> 00:12:57,970
+التي ذكرها النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم ومنها التي
+
+132
+00:12:57,970 --> 00:13:06,380
+ذكرناها قبل قليليتعرف الناس عليه وأول ما يبايعونه
+
+133
+00:13:06,380 --> 00:13:11,080
+يبايعونه بين الركن والمقام في عند الكعبة المشرفة
+
+134
+00:13:11,080 --> 00:13:16,100
+بين الركن المقصود بيه الزاوية الموجودة فيها الحجر
+
+135
+00:13:16,100 --> 00:13:19,980
+الأسود والمقام مقام سيدنا إبراهيم عليه السلام في
+
+136
+00:13:19,980 --> 00:13:27,520
+تلك البقعة الطاهرة المشرفةيبايع المسلمون المهدي
+
+137
+00:13:27,520 --> 00:13:31,660
+عليه السلام على الخلافة لأنهم لا يرضون الاقتتال
+
+138
+00:13:31,660 --> 00:13:38,240
+بين ابني الخليفة الذي ماتفهذا الرجل يقبل البيعة
+
+139
+00:13:38,240 --> 00:13:46,640
+على كراها ثم يقبل بها ويصبح خليفة للمسلمين يكون
+
+140
+00:13:46,640 --> 00:13:52,240
+قبل ذلك أن الله كما ذكر النبي المهدي من أهل البيت
+
+141
+00:13:52,240 --> 00:13:56,680
+يصلحه الله في ليلة لم يكن في باله أن يكون خليفة
+
+142
+00:13:56,680 --> 00:14:02,440
+للمسلمين لكن الله يصلحه لقيادة الأمة الإسلاميةمعنى
+
+143
+00:14:02,440 --> 00:14:06,680
+يصلحه له معنى .. لها معنى يعني يصلحه بمعنى إما أن
+
+144
+00:14:06,680 --> 00:14:11,880
+يكون متلبسا ببعض النقائص صغار وما إلى ذلك فيتوب
+
+145
+00:14:11,880 --> 00:14:17,280
+الله عز وجل عليه ويوفقه ويلهمه رشده أو المعنى
+
+146
+00:14:17,280 --> 00:14:21,420
+الثاني وهو الأرجح والله أعلم يصلحه الله بمعنى أن
+
+147
+00:14:21,420 --> 00:14:27,550
+يهيئه ويعدهويعده للخلافة وقيادة المسلمين في أيام
+
+148
+00:14:27,550 --> 00:14:32,270
+الفتن بمعنى أن يضع الله عز وجل فيه الهمة والقابلية
+
+149
+00:14:32,270 --> 00:14:38,510
+لقيادة المسلمين الأمر الثاني لعله هو الأرجح فالعرب
+
+150
+00:14:38,510 --> 00:14:44,030
+تقول أصلح الله الأمير بمعنى وفق الله الأمير فالله
+
+151
+00:14:44,030 --> 00:14:49,170
+يصلحه بمعنى يوفقه ويسدد خطاه ويصلح حاله ويضع فيه
+
+152
+00:14:49,170 --> 00:14:53,310
+الهمة لقيادة الايهالمسلمين طبعا بعد هذه البيعة
+
+153
+00:14:53,310 --> 00:14:59,430
+المباركة التي تكون في المكان المبارك يعلم الطغا
+
+154
+00:14:59,430 --> 00:15:08,330
+بهذه البيعة فيرسلون اليه فيرسلون اليه الجيوش لقتله
+
+155
+00:15:08,330 --> 00:15:15,450
+يرسلون اليه بجيش الراجل رجلية يعني يقتلونه يقضون
+
+156
+00:15:15,450 --> 00:15:22,140
+على هذه البيعة في مهدها فيعوضه هوالمهدي عليه
+
+157
+00:15:22,140 --> 00:15:26,540
+السلام يعوذ بالبيت كما ذكر النبي صلى الله عليه
+
+158
+00:15:26,540 --> 00:15:31,860
+وسلم في هذه الأحاديث في حديث يرويه الإيمان مسلم عن
+
+159
+00:15:31,860 --> 00:15:36,760
+أم سلمة قال صلى الله عليه وسلم يعوذ آئذ بالبيت
+
+160
+00:15:36,760 --> 00:15:42,380
+فيبعث اليه بعث يبعث اليه بعث هذا هو الجيش الذي
+
+161
+00:15:42,380 --> 00:15:46,870
+يبعث اليهفإذا كان هذا الجيش ببيداء من الأرض في
+
+162
+00:15:46,870 --> 00:15:51,830
+صحراء في منطقة ممتدة وهي صحراء بين مكة والمدينة
+
+163
+00:15:51,830 --> 00:15:55,470
+فإذا كانوا ببيداء من الأرض خُسف بهم
+
+164
+00:15:58,670 --> 00:16:03,690
+فقلت أم سلمة فقلت يا رسول الله فكيف بمن كان كارها
+
+165
+00:16:03,690 --> 00:16:08,910
+يعني لعله بعض أفراد هذا الجيش كاره لقتل هذا الرجل
+
+166
+00:16:08,910 --> 00:16:13,730
+والقضاء عليه قال صلى الله عليه وسلم يخسف بهم يخسف
+
+167
+00:16:13,730 --> 00:16:20,370
+به معهم ولكنه يبعث يوم القيامة على نيته عليه
+
+168
+00:16:20,370 --> 00:16:23,350
+الصلاة والسلام كما ذكر النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم
+
+169
+00:16:23,780 --> 00:16:28,920
+أيضا في الحديث عن عائشة رضي الله عنها قالت عبث
+
+170
+00:16:28,920 --> 00:16:33,420
+رسول الله في منامه عبث بمعنى تحرك حركة غير طبيعية
+
+171
+00:16:33,420 --> 00:16:38,540
+لم يكن معتادا عليها فقلنا يا رسول الله صنعت شيئا
+
+172
+00:16:38,540 --> 00:16:44,500
+في منامك لم تكن تفعله فقال العجب أن ناسا من أمتي
+
+173
+00:16:44,500 --> 00:16:51,560
+يأمون بمعنى يقصدون يلاحقون يلحقون برجل من قريش قد
+
+174
+00:16:51,560 --> 00:16:58,500
+لجأ بالبيتحتى إذا كانوا ببيداء خُسِف بهم الحديث
+
+175
+00:16:58,500 --> 00:17:03,040
+مرة أخرى بنفس المعنى يتكلم عن نفس الموضوع فقلنا يا
+
+176
+00:17:03,040 --> 00:17:07,420
+رسول الله إن الطريق قد يجمع الناس فقال صلى الله
+
+177
+00:17:07,420 --> 00:17:12,420
+عليه وسلم نعم فيهم المستبصر فيهم الواعي اللي بيعرف
+
+178
+00:17:12,420 --> 00:17:16,660
+ماذا يفعل فيهم المستبصر والمجبور المقره يعني
+
+179
+00:17:16,660 --> 00:17:23,070
+المقرهالذي ذهب للقتال غصب عنه لأنه واحد من أفراد
+
+180
+00:17:23,070 --> 00:17:27,270
+الجيش فقط هو مأمور وفيهم ابن السبيل أحيانا يكون
+
+181
+00:17:27,270 --> 00:17:33,910
+واحد مار كده مار في الطريق وابن السبيل يهلكون
+
+182
+00:17:33,910 --> 00:17:38,570
+مهلكا واحدا ويصدرون مصادر شتى بمعنى يبعثون يوم
+
+183
+00:17:38,570 --> 00:17:45,400
+القيامة يبعثهم الله على نياتهم فهذا أيضا جيشوهذه
+
+184
+00:17:45,400 --> 00:17:49,540
+من أقوى العلامات على المهدي عليه السلام حتى لا
+
+185
+00:17:49,540 --> 00:17:56,380
+ينطل الأمر على أي واحد مننا المهدي عليه السلام
+
+186
+00:17:56,380 --> 00:18:01,640
+بالاضافة للعلامات الخلقية التي ذكرناها هذه أبرز
+
+187
+00:18:01,640 --> 00:18:09,440
+العلاماتالتي لنا أن نميز بها بين الكاذبين الكثر
+
+188
+00:18:09,440 --> 00:18:15,820
+ممن يدعون المهدية وبين المهد الحقيقي فهذه كرامة
+
+189
+00:18:15,820 --> 00:18:24,320
+لهذا الرجل الفاضل لهذا الرجل الذي هو منقضاء الله
+
+190
+00:18:24,320 --> 00:18:29,140
+ومشيئته أن يقيده الله تبارك وتعالى للأمة في آخر
+
+191
+00:18:29,140 --> 00:18:34,560
+الزمان ليقيم خلافة كما ذكر النبي على منهاج النبوة
+
+192
+00:18:34,560 --> 00:18:41,380
+يملأ الأرض عدلا و قصدا بعد أن ملئا ظلما وجورا هذه
+
+193
+00:18:41,380 --> 00:18:47,280
+علامة من أبرز العلامات أن يخصف الله عز وجلله بهذا
+
+194
+00:18:47,280 --> 00:18:54,440
+الجيش كرامة له وحفظا له فالله يكلأه ويحفظه من
+
+195
+00:18:54,440 --> 00:19:01,460
+الشرور لأن الله قيد وكتب ان تكون على يديه انتصارات
+
+196
+00:19:01,460 --> 00:19:05,900
+للاسلام والمسلمين في آخر الزمان وكما سيأتي في
+
+197
+00:19:05,900 --> 00:19:11,170
+زمانه ينزل عيسى عليه السلامويكمل المشوار هو
+
+198
+00:19:11,170 --> 00:19:15,510
+والمهدي عليه السلام ويكون على قتل وعلى يد عيسى
+
+199
+00:19:15,510 --> 00:19:19,690
+عليه السلام قتل المسيح الدجال فالمهدي عليه السلام
+
+200
+00:19:19,690 --> 00:19:24,870
+إذا محفوظ لا تنطلي على أي واحد من دعوة أي واحد من
+
+201
+00:19:24,870 --> 00:19:31,780
+البشر الزعم بأنه المهدي قد يحصلقد يحصل عندنا في
+
+202
+00:19:31,780 --> 00:19:37,440
+بلدنا أو في بلد آخر كثير من من اتدعوا المهدية في
+
+203
+00:19:37,440 --> 00:19:41,080
+التاريخ الإسلامي، كثير من الناس اتدعوا الربوبية
+
+204
+00:19:41,080 --> 00:19:47,130
+كما نعلم، كثير منهم اكثر واكثر اتدعوا النبوةوأكثر
+
+205
+00:19:47,130 --> 00:19:52,310
+وأكثر ممن يزعم المهدية، كثير من الناس اتدعى
+
+206
+00:19:52,310 --> 00:19:57,990
+المهدية، فالمهدي إذا له علامات، وهذه أبرز علاماته،
+
+207
+00:19:57,990 --> 00:20:02,670
+يخصف الله بجيش كرامة له ببيداء من الأرض، فلا
+
+208
+00:20:02,670 --> 00:20:05,090
+يستطيع هذا الجيش أن يصل إليه،
+
+209
+00:20:07,670 --> 00:20:13,250
+يلجأ هو عليه السلام الى البيت يحتمي به ويخسف بهذا
+
+210
+00:20:13,250 --> 00:20:18,710
+الجيش ببيداء من الأرض وهي بيداء المديدة وهي الشرف
+
+211
+00:20:18,710 --> 00:20:24,990
+اللذي قدام ذي الحليفة أي من جهة مكة وهي أرض ملساقة
+
+212
+00:20:24,990 --> 00:20:30,510
+والذي يترجح لنا والله أعلم أن هذا الجيش يبعثه
+
+213
+00:20:30,510 --> 00:20:36,810
+طاغوت من الطواغيت لعله طاغوت الشام الطاغوت الطاغوت
+
+214
+00:20:37,510 --> 00:20:42,790
+الطاغية اللذي يحكم الشام في تلك القاونة يحكم جزء
+
+215
+00:20:42,790 --> 00:20:47,540
+من الإسلاممن أرض الإسلام يحارب فيه الإسلام وأهله
+
+216
+00:20:47,540 --> 00:20:52,560
+فإذا سمع هذا الطاغوت بالمهدي أرسل في طلبه لقتله
+
+217
+00:20:52,560 --> 00:20:58,060
+فيهرب المهدي عليه السلام إلى مكة كما ذكرت الأحاديث
+
+218
+00:20:58,060 --> 00:21:04,600
+فيجند ذلك الطاغوت الجيش لللحاق به وبالتالي للتخلص
+
+219
+00:21:04,600 --> 00:21:09,240
+منه لكن الله عز وجل يخيب أمل ذلك الطاغوتويخسف
+
+220
+00:21:09,240 --> 00:21:15,180
+بالجيش ويبايع المهدي خليفة للمسلمين ثم نرى ان
+
+221
+00:21:15,180 --> 00:21:20,100
+المهدي يقود الجيوش ويفتح البلدان ويكون مقر حكمه
+
+222
+00:21:20,100 --> 00:21:27,860
+دمشق خير المدائناللي هي الشام يوم إذن والتي فيها
+
+223
+00:21:27,860 --> 00:21:33,200
+ينزل عيسى عليه السلام عن إمرأة القعقاء ابن أبي
+
+224
+00:21:33,200 --> 00:21:38,280
+حضرة الأسلمي رضي الله عنها قالت سمعت النبي صلى
+
+225
+00:21:38,280 --> 00:21:43,230
+الله عليه وسلم وهو على المنبر يقوليا هؤلاء إذا
+
+226
+00:21:43,230 --> 00:21:48,970
+سمعتم بجيش قد خُسف به قريبًا فقد أضلت الساعة، لذلك
+
+227
+00:21:48,970 --> 00:21:54,310
+اعتبرنا أن ظهور المهدي عليه السلام من علامات
+
+228
+00:21:54,310 --> 00:21:59,230
+الساعة الكبرى، من علامات الساعة الكبرى، وهذا هو
+
+229
+00:21:59,230 --> 00:22:06,110
+شاهدنايا هؤلاء إذا سمعتم بجيش قد خُسف به قريبًا
+
+230
+00:22:06,110 --> 00:22:10,850
+فقد أضلت الساعة فظهور المهدي عليه السلام هو علامة
+
+231
+00:22:10,850 --> 00:22:15,270
+من علامات الساعة الكبرى، طبعًا يبيع المهدي عليه
+
+232
+00:22:15,270 --> 00:22:19,890
+السلام خليفة للمسلمين بعد ذلكويجاهد مع المسلمين في
+
+233
+00:22:19,890 --> 00:22:24,990
+سبيل الله تعالى وتكون خلافته خلافة على منهاج
+
+234
+00:22:24,990 --> 00:22:30,770
+النبوة وتكون الملاحم بين المسلمين وأعدائهم إلى أن
+
+235
+00:22:30,770 --> 00:22:35,590
+ينزل عيسى عليه السلام لعله بعد نزول عيسى عليه
+
+236
+00:22:35,590 --> 00:22:41,820
+السلام عيسى هو الذي يتولى امرأة المسلمينفهو ينزل
+
+237
+00:22:41,820 --> 00:22:47,400
+حاكما من حكام المسلمين كما سيأتي بيانه ان شاء الله
+
+238
+00:22:47,400 --> 00:22:53,820
+تعالى ثم هذه الأحداث تحصل تحدث في زمن المهدي عليه
+
+239
+00:22:53,820 --> 00:22:59,980
+السلام أولها خسف جيش بالبيداء وهو الجيش الذي
+
+240
+00:22:59,980 --> 00:23:05,750
+تكلمنا عنه والذي يرسله طاغية الشامللقضاء على
+
+241
+00:23:05,750 --> 00:23:11,650
+البيعة المباركة التي تعقد للمهدي عليه السلام من
+
+242
+00:23:11,650 --> 00:23:20,730
+المسلمين ثم حدث آخرأيضًا يحصل في زمن المهدي عليه
+
+243
+00:23:20,730 --> 00:23:24,970
+السلام، وهو ظهور الدجال، وهذا مثلًا تحدث عنه إن
+
+244
+00:23:24,970 --> 00:23:29,470
+شاء الله، العلامة الثانية من علامات الساعة الكبرى،
+
+245
+00:23:29,470 --> 00:23:35,190
+ظهور الدجال واتباع اليهود والنصارى والمنافقون لهو،
+
+246
+00:23:35,190 --> 00:23:40,890
+والمسلمون يومئذ يكونون جيش المسلمينيكون بقيادة
+
+247
+00:23:40,890 --> 00:23:47,410
+المهدي منشغلا بفتح القستنطينية، لكن يتركون فتح
+
+248
+00:23:47,410 --> 00:23:49,910
+القستنطينية ويعودون لدمشق
+
+249
+00:23:53,590 --> 00:23:58,950
+المهدي عليه السلام يسمع بظهور
+
+250
+00:23:58,950 --> 00:24:04,570
+الدجال ومجيئه إلى بلاد الشام ونزول عيسى عليه
+
+251
+00:24:04,570 --> 00:24:08,810
+السلام بعد ذلك أيضا من الأحداث نزول عيسى عليه
+
+252
+00:24:08,810 --> 00:24:13,250
+السلام نزول عيسى عليه السلام ينزل في زمان المهدي
+
+253
+00:24:13,760 --> 00:24:18,140
+هذا ما يغلب على الاعتقاد فالحديث في الحديث يقول
+
+254
+00:24:18,140 --> 00:24:22,780
+النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم كيف أنتم إذا نزل ابن مريم
+
+255
+00:24:22,780 --> 00:24:29,680
+فيكم وإمامكم منكم وإمامكم منكم فإذا نزل عيسى عليه
+
+256
+00:24:29,680 --> 00:24:34,990
+السلاموقت الصلاة يكون المسلمون قد اصطفوا للصلاة
+
+257
+00:24:34,990 --> 00:24:38,810
+خلف إمامهم وهو المهدي عليه السلام فيقول لعيسى
+
+258
+00:24:38,810 --> 00:24:43,590
+فيقول لعيسى تعالى صلي المهدي يدعو عيسى ليصلي إماما
+
+259
+00:24:43,590 --> 00:24:48,870
+فيقول عيسى عليه السلام لا إن بعضكم على بعض أمراء
+
+260
+00:24:48,870 --> 00:24:53,890
+تكرمة الله هذه الأمة تكرمة الله هذه الأمة يعني
+
+261
+00:24:53,890 --> 00:24:59,230
+أنتم أئمة لبعضكم البعضفيصلي عيسى عليه السلام
+
+262
+00:24:59,230 --> 00:25:02,550
+مأموما
+
+263
+00:25:03,240 --> 00:25:08,300
+خلف المهدي عليه السلام ولعلنا أجابنا عن هذه القضية
+
+264
+00:25:08,300 --> 00:25:14,580
+سابقا في الإيمان بالأنبياء والمرسلين ولعلنا نعيد
+
+265
+00:25:14,580 --> 00:25:19,880
+الإجابة على سر رفض عيسى عليه السلام أنه صلى مأموما
+
+266
+00:25:19,880 --> 00:25:25,320
+لا إماما صلى مأموما لا إماما إذا هذا ما يمكن أن
+
+267
+00:25:25,320 --> 00:25:31,760
+نذكره في حق المهدي المهدي عليه السلام ننتقل إلى
+
+268
+00:25:31,760 --> 00:25:38,450
+العلامة الثانيةالدجال أو المسيح الدجال العلامة
+
+269
+00:25:38,450 --> 00:25:44,110
+الثانية من علامات الساعة الكبرى أولا
+
+270
+00:25:44,110 --> 00:25:50,650
+الدجال أعظم فتن تمر بالبشر وهذا ما أكده النبي صلى
+
+271
+00:25:50,650 --> 00:25:55,210
+الله عليه وسلم في أحاديث عديدة فالدجال لا شك أنه
+
+272
+00:25:55,210 --> 00:26:00,110
+أحد أشراط الساعة الكبرى وهو من أعظم الفتن التي تمر
+
+273
+00:26:00,110 --> 00:26:04,370
+على البشرية في تاريخها الطويلقال صلى الله عليه
+
+274
+00:26:04,370 --> 00:26:10,350
+وسلم ما بين خلق آدم إلى قيام الساعة أمر أكبر من
+
+275
+00:26:10,350 --> 00:26:15,350
+الدجال وبنفس
+
+276
+00:26:15,350 --> 00:26:20,290
+المعنى ما بين خلق آدم إلى قيام الساعة خلق أكبر من
+
+277
+00:26:20,290 --> 00:26:25,410
+الدجال وفي رواية عند الإمام أحمد ما بين خلق آدم
+
+278
+00:26:25,410 --> 00:26:29,850
+إلى أن تقوم الساعة فتنة أكبر فتنة من الدجال
+
+279
+00:26:33,030 --> 00:26:36,750
+بل أخبر النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم أن الناس يهرعون
+
+280
+00:26:36,750 --> 00:26:43,970
+منه في الجبال، يهرعون بمعنى يهربون، خوفا من فتنته،
+
+281
+00:26:43,970 --> 00:26:51,150
+هذا يدل على أن فتنة الدجال فتنة شديدة، قال صلى
+
+282
+00:26:51,150 --> 00:26:55,110
+الله عليه وسلم لا يفرن الناس من الدجال في الجبال،
+
+283
+00:26:55,110 --> 00:27:01,000
+لا يريدون أن يروا الخوارق التي تجري على يديهفمن
+
+284
+00:27:01,000 --> 00:27:08,560
+شدة ما يحدث من الشبهات والخوارق التي يجريها الله
+
+285
+00:27:08,560 --> 00:27:13,980
+عز وجل على يديه قد يثير الشكوك عند ضعاف النفوس
+
+286
+00:27:13,980 --> 00:27:21,400
+وضعاف العقيدة لذلك المسلم ينجو بنفسه والنبي صلى
+
+287
+00:27:21,400 --> 00:27:28,060
+الله عليه وسلم يوصي من أدرك الدجال فلينأ عنهالنبي
+
+288
+00:27:28,060 --> 00:27:31,720
+صلى الله عليه وسلم يوصينا من أدرك الدجال فلينقع
+
+289
+00:27:31,720 --> 00:27:36,180
+عنه لأنه يثير الشكوك والشبهات في نفس الإنسان
+
+290
+00:27:36,180 --> 00:27:42,540
+فالأفضل عدم الحرص على لقياه ومقابلته طبعا سمي
+
+291
+00:27:42,540 --> 00:27:50,240
+الدجال دجالا الدجل لغة التغطية وذلك لأنه يغطي الحق
+
+292
+00:27:50,240 --> 00:27:58,560
+بالباطل فهو يقوم على الخداع ويلبس في الأمريخلط أو
+
+293
+00:27:58,560 --> 00:28:05,940
+يغطي الحق بالباطل فهو يدعي النبوة، يدعي الرسالة،
+
+294
+00:28:05,940 --> 00:28:08,720
+يدعي أنه المسيح عليه السلام، ثم يدعي الربوبية
+
+295
+00:28:08,720 --> 00:28:15,200
+أخيرا، ثم يدعي الربوبية، فسمي دجال لكثرة كذبه
+
+296
+00:28:15,200 --> 00:28:22,380
+ودجله، كثرة كذبه ودجله، فإذا قلنا رجل دجلي بمعنى
+
+297
+00:28:22,380 --> 00:28:30,240
+كذاب، دجال، فالدجال هو الكذاب،والمسيح الدجال هذا
+
+298
+00:28:30,240 --> 00:28:38,060
+ليس أول الدجاجلة ولكنه آخر الدجاجلة بل أكبرهم فقد
+
+299
+00:28:38,060 --> 00:28:42,220
+أخبر النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم أنه سيكون في هذه
+
+300
+00:28:42,220 --> 00:28:47,940
+الأمة دجالون وقد ذكرنا هذه الأحاديث فيما سبق من
+
+301
+00:28:47,940 --> 00:28:54,080
+هذه الأحاديث في أمتي كذابون ودجالون سبعة وعشرون
+
+302
+00:28:54,970 --> 00:28:59,950
+منهم أربع نسوة وإني خاتم النبيين لا نبي بعدي وفي
+
+303
+00:28:59,950 --> 00:29:04,670
+الحديث أيضا لا تقوم الساعة حتى يبعث دجالون كذابون
+
+304
+00:29:04,670 --> 00:29:10,630
+قريب من ثلاثين كلهم يزعم أنه رسول الله كلهم يزعم
+
+305
+00:29:10,630 --> 00:29:16,890
+أنه رسول الله فهذا الدجال الذي سنتحدث عنه هو واحد
+
+306
+00:29:16,890 --> 00:29:24,010
+من الدجاجلةهو آخرهم وهو أكبرهم هو أكبر الدجاجلة هو
+
+307
+00:29:24,010 --> 00:29:29,210
+أكبر الدجاجلة سمى المسيح الدجال لماذا سمى المسيح
+
+308
+00:29:29,210 --> 00:29:35,030
+سبب تسمية الدجال بالمسيح ذكر العلماء أيضا في سبب
+
+309
+00:29:35,030 --> 00:29:41,350
+هذه التسمية أسبابا الأمر الأول سمى الدجال بالمسيح
+
+310
+00:29:41,350 --> 00:29:49,000
+لأنه ممسوح العين كما سيأتي في صفاتهكما سيات الحديث
+
+311
+00:29:49,000 --> 00:29:55,840
+في صفاته الدجال ممسوح العين ممسوح العين في إحدى
+
+312
+00:29:55,840 --> 00:30:04,000
+الروايات هو ممسوح العين اليمنى ناتق العين اليسرة
+
+313
+00:30:04,000 --> 00:30:11,560
+ممسوح بمعنى هذه لحم يعني وقيل لأنه يمسح الأرض أي
+
+314
+00:30:11,560 --> 00:30:17,670
+يقطعهافي المدة القليلة أو يطوفها كلها إلا مكة
+
+315
+00:30:17,670 --> 00:30:22,230
+والمدينة فقد سأل الصحابة الكرام النبي صلى الله
+
+316
+00:30:22,230 --> 00:30:26,310
+عليه وسلم يا رسول الله وما إسراعه في الأرض يعني
+
+317
+00:30:26,310 --> 00:30:31,510
+كيف هيمشي كيف هيتصرف بيكون سريع فقال صلى الله عليه
+
+318
+00:30:31,510 --> 00:30:39,210
+وسلم كالغيث استدبرته الريح رأيتي الغمام عندما
+
+319
+00:30:39,210 --> 00:30:45,650
+تدفعه الرياح نراها تسير بسرعةتنتقل من بلد إلى بلد
+
+320
+00:30:45,650 --> 00:30:53,690
+كالغيث استدبرته الريح وفي رواية سأله الصحابة وكم
+
+321
+00:30:53,690 --> 00:31:01,430
+لبثه في الأرض فقال اربعون يوما يوم كسنة ويوم كشهر
+
+322
+00:31:01,430 --> 00:31:08,790
+ويوم كجمعة وباقي أيامه كأيامكم وقال النبي صلى الله
+
+323
+00:31:08,790 --> 00:31:13,800
+عليه وسلم ما من بلدة إلا سيطاء الدجالإلا مكة
+
+324
+00:31:13,800 --> 00:31:20,440
+والمدينة فسمي الدجال بالمسيح لأنه يمسح الأرض ما من
+
+325
+00:31:20,440 --> 00:31:24,780
+قرية ما من بلدة إلا سيطاعها الدجال في هذه الأربعين
+
+326
+00:31:24,780 --> 00:31:32,340
+يوما في هذه الأربعين يوما يوم كسنة ويوم كشهر ويوم
+
+327
+00:31:32,340 --> 00:31:38,920
+كجمعة وباقي أيامه كأيامكم فاسراعه واضح أنه سريع
+
+328
+00:31:40,880 --> 00:31:45,880
+الأمر الثالث أو السبب الثالث قيل لأنه يدعي أنه
+
+329
+00:31:45,880 --> 00:31:51,120
+المسيح المنتظر الذي ينتظره اليهود والنصارى فاليهود
+
+330
+00:31:51,120 --> 00:31:57,540
+ينتظرون في عقيدتهم ما يسمى الميسيا أو المشيحة أو
+
+331
+00:31:57,540 --> 00:32:01,660
+ملك بني داود يعتقدون أنه سيظهر آخر الزمان
+
+332
+00:32:01,660 --> 00:32:09,770
+وسينتصرون على يديه والغالب والأعم والأغلبوالذي
+
+333
+00:32:09,770 --> 00:32:14,790
+يغلب على اعتقادنا ان الذي ينتظرونه هذا هو المسيح
+
+334
+00:32:14,790 --> 00:32:19,930
+الدجال المسيح الدجال هذا بالنسبة لليهود اما
+
+335
+00:32:19,930 --> 00:32:24,310
+النصارى فيعتقدون ايضا بعودة عيسى عليه السلام
+
+336
+00:32:24,310 --> 00:32:29,490
+يعتقدون بعودة عيسى عليه السلام المرة الثانية
+
+337
+00:32:29,490 --> 00:32:36,630
+ليعيشوا الالف سنة السعيدة كما يعتقدوا المسيحيون
+
+338
+00:32:36,630 --> 00:32:43,450
+الصهاين منهمالمسيحيون الصهايرة فكلاهم ينتظر مسيحا
+
+339
+00:32:43,450 --> 00:32:48,490
+منتظرا ونحن
+
+340
+00:32:48,490 --> 00:32:54,050
+ننتظر المهد المنتظر نحن نعتقد بالمهد المنتظر الذي
+
+341
+00:32:54,050 --> 00:32:58,680
+تحدثنا عنه والذي سينزل عيسى عليه السلامفي زمانه
+
+342
+00:32:58,680 --> 00:33:04,440
+والذي سيقتل المسيح الدجال الذي نتكلم عنه الآن
+
+343
+00:33:04,440 --> 00:33:12,020
+والذي سيقتله عيسى عليه السلام للتفرقة بين المسيح
+
+344
+00:33:12,020 --> 00:33:21,940
+الدجال والمسيح عليه السلام قيد المسيح الدجال كما
+
+345
+00:33:21,940 --> 00:33:29,200
+نقول بوسيلما الكذاب المسيح الدجالنقول المسيح
+
+346
+00:33:29,200 --> 00:33:33,500
+الدجال، لا نقول المسيح لوحده، إذا قلنا المسيح
+
+347
+00:33:33,500 --> 00:33:38,960
+لوحده، يقصد، يقصد به مسيح الهدى، وهو عيسى عليه
+
+348
+00:33:38,960 --> 00:33:45,720
+السلام، لكن إذا قيدناه، فهو بما قيد، فيسمى المسيح
+
+349
+00:33:45,720 --> 00:33:50,220
+الدجال، نقصد به هذا الأعور، الدجال الذي يكون في
+
+350
+00:33:50,220 --> 00:33:54,280
+آخر الزمن، أما إذا قلنا، إذا أطلقناه، فقولنا قال
+
+351
+00:33:54,280 --> 00:33:59,640
+المسيح، نقصد به من؟أيوة المسيح عيسى عليه السلام
+
+352
+00:33:59,640 --> 00:34:08,220
+صفات المسيح الدجال الخلقيةسنذكر أوصافه ولنا أن
+
+353
+00:34:08,220 --> 00:34:15,920
+نتخيل أوصاف الدجال من خلال ذكر أوصافه.أول صفة له
+
+354
+00:34:15,920 --> 00:34:20,340
+ذكرها النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم أنه أعور العين أو
+
+355
+00:34:20,340 --> 00:34:25,960
+العينين.والحقيقة انه يعني في ذكر عينيه جاءت روايات
+
+356
+00:34:25,960 --> 00:34:31,980
+عديدة.أقول جاءت روايات عديدة كثيرة.منها هذا الحديث
+
+357
+00:34:31,980 --> 00:34:38,820
+ان الله لا يخفي عليكموإن الله ليس بأعور وإن المسيح
+
+358
+00:34:38,820 --> 00:34:47,220
+الدجال أعور عين اليمن كأن عينه عنبة طوافية وفي
+
+359
+00:34:47,220 --> 00:34:53,560
+رواية كأنها زجاجة خضراء وفي رواية كأنها كوكب درى
+
+360
+00:34:54,020 --> 00:34:59,440
+وفي رواية كأنها نخامة في حاط، إلى آخره من النصوص،
+
+361
+00:34:59,440 --> 00:35:06,080
+ففي ذكر عينيه جاءت روايات عديدة، لكن المستفاد من
+
+362
+00:35:06,080 --> 00:35:12,260
+مجموعة هذه الروايات أن كلت عينيه معيبتان، أن كلت
+
+363
+00:35:12,260 --> 00:35:20,680
+عينيه معيبتان، وكفى للمرء المؤمن هذا المشهدأن نرى
+
+364
+00:35:20,680 --> 00:35:25,880
+أن يرى عينيه معيبتان فهذا دليل على أنه كذاب دجال
+
+365
+00:35:25,880 --> 00:35:31,420
+لو كان إلها صادقا أو ربا صادقا لأزال ما بيه من عيب
+
+366
+00:35:31,420 --> 00:35:39,580
+الخلق إن الدجال لأعور وإن ربكم ليس بأعور إن الله
+
+367
+00:35:39,580 --> 00:35:44,320
+تعالى ليس بأعور وإن المسيح الدجال أعور عين اليمن
+
+368
+00:35:44,320 --> 00:35:51,440
+كأن عينه عنبة طافيةصفة أخرى مكتوب بين عينيه كافر
+
+369
+00:35:51,440 --> 00:35:57,100
+هذه هدية من نبينا صلى الله عليه وسلم يخبرنا بها
+
+370
+00:35:57,100 --> 00:36:03,460
+حتى ما نتغلب في التعرف على شخصية هذا الدجال قال
+
+371
+00:36:03,460 --> 00:36:08,300
+صلى الله عليه وسلم ما من نبي إلا أنظر أمته الأعور
+
+372
+00:36:08,300 --> 00:36:15,810
+الكذاب ألا إنه أعور وإن ربكم ليس بأعورو مكتوب بين
+
+373
+00:36:15,810 --> 00:36:24,250
+عينيه كافرة او كافر مكتوب بين عينيه بصورة واضحة
+
+374
+00:36:24,250 --> 00:36:29,630
+يقرأها من كان بقارئ ومن ليس بقارئ يعني المثقف و
+
+375
+00:36:29,630 --> 00:36:33,930
+المتعلم او رجل الأم يقرأها يتمكن اذا كان هو ايه
+
+376
+00:36:33,930 --> 00:36:41,820
+ملتزم بالدين والإيمان من صفاته ايضا قصير افحججعد
+
+377
+00:36:41,820 --> 00:36:49,220
+أعور عينه ليست بناتقة ولا جحراء وهذه الكلمات لها
+
+378
+00:36:49,220 --> 00:36:56,100
+معاني مبينة قصير بمعنى قصير القامة لأن تخيله إذا
+
+379
+00:36:56,100 --> 00:36:59,620
+هو أعور العين أو العينين مكتوب من بين عينيه كافر
+
+380
+00:36:59,620 --> 00:37:06,960
+قصير أفحج بمعنى متقارب الخطة جعد بمعنى أن شعره غير
+
+381
+00:37:06,960 --> 00:37:15,680
+مسترسل شعره رديقمكتكت يعني اعوار تحدثنا عنها
+
+382
+00:37:15,680 --> 00:37:22,880
+وذكرناها انه ايه اعوار العين اليمنى ليست بناته او
+
+383
+00:37:22,880 --> 00:37:28,920
+لجهرها الاخرى اللى هى اليسرى الاخرى ذكرنا ان النبي
+
+384
+00:37:28,920 --> 00:37:35,880
+ذكر فيهاصفات كثيرة، منها أنها جحرا، منها أنها
+
+385
+00:37:35,880 --> 00:37:41,900
+كأنها نخامة في حائط أو زجاجة خضراء أو كوكب ذري أو
+
+386
+00:37:41,900 --> 00:37:47,940
+إلى بطافية أو إلى آخره من النصوص فهذا يدل على إيه؟
+
+387
+00:37:47,940 --> 00:37:52,400
+على أن كلت عينيه معيبة قال صلى الله عليه وسلم إني
+
+388
+00:37:52,400 --> 00:37:58,420
+قد حدثتكم عن الدجال حتى خشيت أن لا تعقلوا أن
+
+389
+00:37:58,420 --> 00:38:05,580
+المسيح الدجال قصيرأفحج، جعد، أعور، ممسوح العين،
+
+390
+00:38:05,580 --> 00:38:12,460
+ليس بنات أو جهراء، فإن ألبس عليكم، يعني إن لم
+
+391
+00:38:12,460 --> 00:38:15,720
+تتعرفوا على كل هذه الصفات ولم تستفيدوا منها،
+
+392
+00:38:15,720 --> 00:38:22,920
+فاعلموا أن ربكم ليس بأعور، وأنكم، انتبهوا، وأنكم
+
+393
+00:38:22,920 --> 00:38:30,850
+لن تروا ربكم حتى تموتوا،فهذا الذي يزعم أنه ربكم
+
+394
+00:38:30,850 --> 00:38:35,410
+بالتأكيد
+
+395
+00:38:35,410 --> 00:38:40,790
+هو كذاب دجال. بالتأكيد هو كذاب دجال. نحن صنارة
+
+396
+00:38:40,790 --> 00:38:47,310
+ربنا. نحن صنارة ربنا تبارك وتعالى. فرؤية الله
+
+397
+00:38:47,310 --> 00:38:51,730
+تبارك وتعالى عقيدة من عقائد أهل السنة والجماعة. بل
+
+398
+00:38:51,730 --> 00:38:55,730
+هي أعظم نعيم الله تبارك وتعالى الذي أعده الله عز
+
+399
+00:38:55,730 --> 00:39:00,980
+وجل للمؤمنين في الجنة.وجوه يوم إذا ناضرة إلى ربها
+
+400
+00:39:00,980 --> 00:39:06,460
+ناضرة للذين أحسنوا الحسنة وزيادة قال المفسرون
+
+401
+00:39:06,460 --> 00:39:10,940
+وزيادة بمعنى رؤية الله تبارك وتعالى لكن هذا في
+
+402
+00:39:10,940 --> 00:39:15,920
+الآخرة وليس في الدنيا فهذا الذي يزعم لكم أنه ربكم
+
+403
+00:39:15,920 --> 00:39:24,040
+هو المسيح الدجال وإنكم لن تروا ربكم حتى تموتوا ثم
+
+404
+00:39:24,040 --> 00:39:34,380
+من صفات الدجال هجانأظهر كأن رأسه أصلة معنى هجان أي
+
+405
+00:39:34,380 --> 00:39:44,000
+ضخم منتفخ ضخم منتفخ أظهر بمعنى أبيض بمعنى البشرة
+
+406
+00:39:44,000 --> 00:39:51,340
+بتاعة بيضاء أصلة كأن رأسه أصلة الأصلة هو نوع من
+
+407
+00:39:51,340 --> 00:39:58,310
+الأفاعي رأسه كبيررأسه ايه؟ هي أفعى ضخمة وكبيرة
+
+408
+00:39:58,310 --> 00:40:05,270
+ورأسها انفلقح يكون ايه؟ رأسها كالكوبرا كده رأسها
+
+409
+00:40:05,270 --> 00:40:11,550
+.. رأسها كبير فهو ذو رأس كبير وشعر مجهد أعور
+
+410
+00:40:11,550 --> 00:40:18,030
+العينين ناتق ممسوح واحدة اليمنى وناتقة اليسرة لأن
+
+411
+00:40:18,030 --> 00:40:25,890
+نتخيله بهذه الصورة الشنيعة قصير بدينناصح منتفخ
+
+412
+00:40:25,890 --> 00:40:31,310
+وهكذا هذا هو المسيح الدجال هذه الصفات التي ذكرها
+
+413
+00:40:31,310 --> 00:40:40,450
+نبينا صلى الله عليه وسلم علي المسيح الدجال نكتفي
+
+414
+00:40:40,450 --> 00:40:45,590
+بهذا القدر ونكمل ان شاء الله هذا الموضوع في اللقاء
+
+415
+00:40:45,590 --> 00:40:49,590
+القادم اقول قول هذا واستغفر الله لي ولكم والسلام
+
+416
+00:40:49,590 --> 00:40:51,330
+عليكم ورحمة الله وبركاته
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/T5NJLpnn1Fk.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/T5NJLpnn1Fk.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..ecc3628117818779a3cda1a560afbc2a5dd19adb
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/T5NJLpnn1Fk.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1707 @@
+1
+00:00:21,670 --> 00:00:25,450
+أعوذ بالله السميع العلي من الشيطان الرجيم بسم الله
+
+2
+00:00:25,450 --> 00:00:30,870
+الرحمن الرحيم الحمد لله رب العالمين وأصلي وأسلم 
+
+3
+00:00:30,870 --> 00:00:34,570
+على رسول الله الأمين محمد بن عبد الله الصادق
+
+4
+00:00:34,570 --> 00:00:39,590
+الأمين صلى الله عليه وعلى آله وصحبه وسلم أجمعين
+
+5
+00:00:39,590 --> 00:00:45,590
+وبعد بعد أن انتهينا من الحديث عن الحشر يوم القيامة
+
+6
+00:00:46,250 --> 00:00:51,890
+نتحدث عن العرض وتسلم صحائف الأعمال أولا العرض
+
+7
+00:00:51,890 --> 00:01:03,110
+فالجزاء يكون بعد محاكمة عادلة يُعرض فيها الناس على 
+
+8
+00:01:03,110 --> 00:01:10,750
+ربهم وتقام فيها الحجج عليهم ويتطلعون على أعمالهم
+
+9
+00:01:10,750 --> 00:01:16,340
+التي عملوها فإذا قبل أن يحاسب الله تعالى العباد
+
+10
+00:01:16,340 --> 00:01:22,740
+يعرض عليهم أعمالهم سبحانه وتعالى بمعنى أنه يقررهم
+
+11
+00:01:22,740 --> 00:01:28,620
+يضع بين أيديهم أعمالهم يعرض عليهم أعمالهم التي
+
+12
+00:01:28,620 --> 00:01:34,240
+قاموا بها وصدرت عنهم في الحياة الدنيا أقوالهم
+
+13
+00:01:34,240 --> 00:01:43,620
+وأفعالهم كلها مسجلة في الكتب التي تكتبها الملائكة
+
+14
+00:01:43,620 --> 00:01:49,810
+وإن عليكم لحافظين كراما كاتبين فنحن نُعرض يوم
+
+15
+00:01:49,810 --> 00:01:54,610
+القيامة على الله تبارك وتعالى وعُرضوا على ربك صفًا
+
+16
+00:01:54,610 --> 00:02:01,210
+لقد جئتمونا كما خلقناكم أول مرة بل زعمتم أن لن
+
+17
+00:02:01,210 --> 00:02:03,750
+نجعل لكم موعدة ها هو الموعد
+
+18
+00:02:07,100 --> 00:02:11,160
+لقاء العباد مع ربهم تبارك وتعالى والله عز وجل
+
+19
+00:02:11,160 --> 00:02:18,060
+يذكرهم بأعمالهم التي صدرت عنهم يومئذ تعرضون لا تخفى
+
+20
+00:02:18,060 --> 00:02:22,680
+منكم خافية قال النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم ما منكم من
+
+21
+00:02:22,680 --> 00:02:29,900
+أحد إلا وسيكلمه الله يوم القيامة إلا وسيقرره إلا
+
+22
+00:02:29,900 --> 00:02:37,700
+وسيعرض عليه أعماله ليس بين الله وبينه ترجمان بشكل
+
+23
+00:02:37,700 --> 00:02:42,460
+مباشر بين العبد وبين ربه وحال المؤمن بالتأكيد
+
+24
+00:02:42,460 --> 00:02:49,680
+يختلف عن حال الكافر فالمؤمن يعرض عليه عمله فيطلعه
+
+25
+00:02:49,680 --> 00:02:55,080
+الله على سيئاته بحيث لا يطلع عليها أحد يضرب الله
+
+26
+00:02:55,080 --> 00:03:02,420
+عز وجل بينه وبين الناس حجابا فلا يراه أحد ولا يسمع
+
+27
+00:03:02,420 --> 00:03:08,260
+به أحد ويقرره سبحانه وتعالى يذكره بأقواله وأفعاله
+
+28
+00:03:08,260 --> 00:03:14,820
+وطاعاته ومعاصيه جاء في الحديث عن النبي صلى الله
+
+29
+00:03:14,820 --> 00:03:21,760
+عليه وسلم إن الله يدن المؤمن فيضع عليه كنفه ويستره
+
+30
+00:03:23,260 --> 00:03:28,300
+إذا المؤمن يستره الله تبارك وتعالى يضع عليه كنفه
+
+31
+00:03:28,300 --> 00:03:34,460
+يضع بينه وبين الخلائق حجابا فيقول أتعرف ذنب كذا
+
+32
+00:03:34,460 --> 00:03:40,960
+أتعرف ذنب كذا أتذكر يوم الثلاثاء على سبيل المثال
+
+33
+00:03:40,960 --> 00:03:46,480
+بعد العصر في المكان الفلاني أتذكر المعصية التي
+
+34
+00:03:46,480 --> 00:03:52,700
+فعلتها في المكان الفلاني فيقول العبد المؤمن وهو
+
+35
+00:03:52,700 --> 00:03:56,880
+صادق في الدنيا وصادق في الآخرة نعم أيه ربي حتى إذا
+
+36
+00:03:56,880 --> 00:04:02,300
+قرره بذنوبه يعني يسأله عن كل ذنوبه ومعاصيه وراه في
+
+37
+00:04:02,300 --> 00:04:07,480
+نفسه أنه هالك لأن الإنسان عندما يسأل وعندما يجد كل
+
+38
+00:04:07,480 --> 00:04:14,280
+أعماله حاضرة بين يديه يحسب أنه هالك فيقول الله عز
+
+39
+00:04:14,280 --> 00:04:20,000
+وجل عليه له متفضلا سترتها عليك في الدنيا واليوم
+
+40
+00:04:20,000 --> 00:04:26,200
+أغفرها لك نسأل الله تبارك وتعالى أن يسطر علينا
+
+41
+00:04:26,200 --> 00:04:31,600
+فوق الأرض وتحت الأرض ويوم العرض عليه سبحانه وتعالى 
+
+42
+00:04:31,600 --> 00:04:39,140
+أما الكافر أما الكافر والمنافق فينادى على
+
+43
+00:04:39,140 --> 00:04:48,230
+رؤوس الأشهاد ينادى بمعصيته يا مرابي يا زاني يا سارق
+
+44
+00:04:48,230 --> 00:04:54,870
+يا قاتل يا ظالم وهكذا فيفتضح على رؤوس الأشهاد
+
+45
+00:04:54,870 --> 00:05:00,030
+هؤلاء الذين كذبوا على ربهم ألا لعنة الله على
+
+46
+00:05:00,030 --> 00:05:08,040
+الظالمين ثم يكون تسلم صحائف الأعمال والمراد بالصحف
+
+47
+00:05:08,040 --> 00:05:13,620
+كتب الأعمال التي يسجل بها أعمال الإنسان من خير أو
+
+48
+00:05:13,620 --> 00:05:19,240
+شر وهي الصحف التي تكتبها الملائكة الكرام نتسلمها
+
+49
+00:05:19,240 --> 00:05:27,840
+يوم القيامة يتسلم كل إنسان كتابه كل إنسان كافر أو
+
+50
+00:05:27,840 --> 00:05:34,420
+مؤمن يتسلم كتابه وهذا من إعذار الله عز وجل لخلقه
+
+51
+00:05:35,270 --> 00:05:41,350
+فلا نجد .. لا يوجد من هو أشد إعذارا من الله تبارك
+
+52
+00:05:41,350 --> 00:05:48,230
+وتعالى فيضع بين أيدينا ما سجلته علينا الكرام
+
+53
+00:05:48,230 --> 00:05:54,010
+البررة الملائكة الكرام ما سجلته علينا من أقوال
+
+54
+00:05:54,010 --> 00:05:58,530
+وأفعال وطاعات ومعاصي وذهاب وإياب وأقوال وأفعال
+
+55
+00:05:58,530 --> 00:06:06,950
+وحسنات وسيئات كل ذلك مجموع في هذا الكتاب نجده بين
+
+56
+00:06:06,950 --> 00:06:13,010
+أيدينا يوم تجد كل نفس ما عملت من خير مُحضرا وما
+
+57
+00:06:13,010 --> 00:06:20,650
+عملت من سوء تود لو أن بينها وبينه أمدا بعيدا فيطلع
+
+58
+00:06:20,650 --> 00:06:27,530
+العباد على ما فعلوه وكأنه شريط فيديو طويل بحسب
+
+59
+00:06:27,530 --> 00:06:33,970
+حياة الإنسان فيه سجلت الملائكة على هذا العبد كل ما
+
+60
+00:06:33,970 --> 00:06:41,070
+بدر منه من طاعات أو من معاصي ويقول له اقرأ كتابك
+
+61
+00:06:41,070 --> 00:06:47,670
+كفى بنفسك اليوم عليك حسيبة فيقرأ الإنسان هذا
+
+62
+00:06:47,670 --> 00:06:54,570
+الكتاب انظر إلى هذا المشهد مشهد مهيب مشهد مخيف
+
+63
+00:06:54,570 --> 00:07:02,620
+مشهد مرعب ووضع الكتاب فترى المجرمين مشفقين مما فيه
+
+64
+00:07:02,620 --> 00:07:09,820
+ويقولون يا ويلتنا ما لهذا الكتاب لا يغادر صغيرة
+
+65
+00:07:09,820 --> 00:07:16,460
+ولا كبيرة إلا أحصاها ووجدوا ما عملوا حاضرة ولا
+
+66
+00:07:16,460 --> 00:07:21,220
+يظلم ربك أحدا فهذا ما بدر منك الله عز وجل لا يظلم
+
+67
+00:07:21,220 --> 00:07:25,140
+أحد هذا هو ما سجلته عليك الملائكة الكرام البررة
+
+68
+00:07:25,140 --> 00:07:30,940
+الصادقين فهم لم يفطروا ولم يزوروا ولم يضيفوا أي شيء
+
+69
+00:07:30,940 --> 00:07:38,220
+من عند أنفسهم إذا المؤمنون يتسلمون كتبهم بأيمانهم
+
+70
+00:07:38,220 --> 00:07:45,600
+يتسلمون كتبهم بأيمانهم هذا لأنهم من أهل اليمين في
+
+71
+00:07:45,600 --> 00:07:49,820
+الحياة الدنيا كانوا قد آمنوا بالله عز وجل وعملوا
+
+72
+00:07:49,820 --> 00:07:57,670
+الصالحات أما الكافرين أما الكافرون والعصاة والملاحدة
+
+73
+00:07:57,670 --> 00:08:05,070
+فيتسلمون كتبهم بشمائلهم أو من وراء ظهورهم لأنهم
+
+74
+00:08:05,070 --> 00:08:09,870
+كفروا بالله عز وجل وعملوا السيئات وهذا ما سجله
+
+75
+00:08:09,870 --> 00:08:16,210
+القرآن الكريم وفي تسجيله يشير القرآن الكريم إلى
+
+76
+00:08:16,210 --> 00:08:20,890
+مصير هؤلاء مصير هؤلاء ومصير هؤلاء كيف سيكون فأما
+
+77
+00:08:20,890 --> 00:08:27,630
+من أوتي كتابه بيمينه فسوف يحاسب حسابا يسيرا وينقلب
+
+78
+00:08:27,630 --> 00:08:36,330
+إلى أهله مسرورا وأما من أوتي كتابه وراء ظهره فسوف
+
+79
+00:08:36,330 --> 00:08:43,650
+يدعو ثبورة يبدو أنه يحاول أن يتسلمه بيمينه فيضع يده
+
+80
+00:08:43,650 --> 00:08:50,050
+اليسرى خلف ظهره لعل الكتاب يقع في يده اليمين فتطير
+
+81
+00:08:50,050 --> 00:08:55,190
+الصحيفة فتقع في يده اليسرى من وراء ظهره وأما من
+
+82
+00:08:55,190 --> 00:09:01,250
+أوتي كتابه وراء ظهره فسوف يدعو ثبورة ويصلى سعيرة
+
+83
+00:09:01,250 --> 00:09:08,070
+إذا إذا الحساب بحسب تسلم الصحف المؤمنون تسلموا
+
+84
+00:09:08,070 --> 00:09:13,710
+كتبهم بأيمانهم فسوف يحاسبون حسابا يسيرا وأما
+
+85
+00:09:13,710 --> 00:09:22,370
+الكافرون فقد تسلموا صحفهم صحف أعمالهم بشمائلهم أو
+
+86
+00:09:22,370 --> 00:09:28,810
+من وراء ظهورهم فسوف يدعون ثبورا ويصلون سعيرة سوف
+
+87
+00:09:28,810 --> 00:09:34,950
+يحاسبون حسابا عسيرة فالحساب يا أخواتي المقصود به
+
+88
+00:09:34,950 --> 00:09:42,290
+وهذا مصطلح معناه الوقوف أمام الله عز وجل للمحاكمة
+
+89
+00:09:42,290 --> 00:09:48,330
+العادلة قبل الانصراف من المحشر قبل الانصراف من
+
+90
+00:09:48,330 --> 00:09:53,190
+المحشر فالله عز وجل يحاسب الناس في هذه المحاسبة
+
+91
+00:09:53,190 --> 00:09:59,240
+العادلة ولو أردنا أن نقف على أنواع الحساب فالحساب
+
+92
+00:09:59,240 --> 00:10:07,920
+أنواع منه العسير ومنه اليسير ومنه التكريم ومنه
+
+93
+00:10:07,920 --> 00:10:16,000
+التوبيخ والتبكيد ومنه الفضل والصفح ومتولي ذلك أكرم
+
+94
+00:10:16,000 --> 00:10:22,040
+الأكرمين سبحانه وتعالى فالناس إذا المتفاوتون في
+
+95
+00:10:22,040 --> 00:10:28,580
+الحساب يتفاوت الناس في الحساب بحسب أعمالهم فبعض
+
+96
+00:10:28,580 --> 00:10:34,720
+العباد يحاسب حسابا عسيرة وهؤلاء هم الكفرة المجرمون
+
+97
+00:10:34,720 --> 00:10:39,340
+الذين أشركوا بالله ما لم ينزل به سلطان وتمردوا
+
+98
+00:10:39,340 --> 00:10:45,480
+على شرع الله وكذبوا الرسل وبعض عصاة الموحدين قد
+
+99
+00:10:45,480 --> 00:10:53,010
+يطولوا حسابهم ويعصرون بسبب الذنوب وعظمها وبعض العباد
+
+100
+00:10:53,010 --> 00:10:58,490
+يحاسب حسابا يسيرا فالناس متفوتون منهم من يحاسب
+
+101
+00:10:58,490 --> 00:11:06,030
+حسابا عسيرة والحساب العسير يتبين لنا أنه ليس فقط
+
+102
+00:11:06,030 --> 00:11:13,340
+للكافرين إنما أيضا لبعض عصاة الموحدين الذين لم يشأ
+
+103
+00:11:13,340 --> 00:11:16,600
+الله تبارك وتعالى يوم القيامة أن يعفو عنهم
+
+104
+00:11:16,600 --> 00:11:25,020
+فيعذبهم، يحاسبهم حسابا عسيرا ويدخلهم النار بقدر ما
+
+105
+00:11:25,020 --> 00:11:32,100
+شاء الله تبارك وتعالى من الوقت ثم يخرجون بالشفاعة
+
+106
+00:11:32,100 --> 00:11:39,680
+التي يشفع بها الشافعون الأنبياء أو الملائكة أو
+
+107
+00:11:39,680 --> 00:11:46,880
+الشهداء أو برحمة أرحم الراحمين لا يخلدون في النار
+
+108
+00:11:46,880 --> 00:11:53,960
+أنا أتكلم هنا عن عصاة الموحدين عصاة الموحدين وهذا
+
+109
+00:11:53,960 --> 00:11:59,710
+هو حكم مرتكب الكبيرة حكم مرتكب الكبيرة إن مات من
+
+110
+00:11:59,710 --> 00:12:04,570
+غير توبة فهو في مشيئة الله إن شاء عف عنه وإن شاء
+
+111
+00:12:04,570 --> 00:12:09,930
+عذبه وإن عذبه لا يخلده في النار فالآن في الآخرة
+
+112
+00:12:09,930 --> 00:12:15,170
+الله عز وجل هؤلاء بعض عصاة الموحدين الله عز وجل لم
+
+113
+00:12:15,170 --> 00:12:24,030
+يشاء أن يعفو عنهم فيحاسبهم حسابا عسيرا فيدخلون
+
+114
+00:12:24,030 --> 00:12:30,980
+النار مدة لا يعلمها إلا الله تبارك وتعالى ثم يخرجون
+
+115
+00:12:30,980 --> 00:12:37,220
+من النار لقوله تعالى إن الله لا يغفر أن يشرك به
+
+116
+00:12:37,220 --> 00:12:45,240
+ويغفر ما دون ذلك لمن يشاء فعموم
+
+117
+00:12:45,240 --> 00:12:51,770
+هذا النص يدل على أن الناس متفاوتون في الحساب فليس
+
+118
+00:12:51,770 --> 00:12:57,190
+كلهم على درجة واحدة المؤمنون يحاسبون حسابا يسيرا
+
+119
+00:12:57,190 --> 00:13:02,310
+أما الكافرون فيحاسبون حسابا عسيرة في صحيح البخاري
+
+120
+00:13:02,310 --> 00:13:06,590
+عن عائشة رضوان الله عنها وعن أبيها أن رسول الله
+
+121
+00:13:06,590 --> 00:13:10,790
+صلى الله عليه وسلم قال ليس أحد يحاسب يوم القيامة
+
+122
+00:13:10,790 --> 00:13:16,530
+إلا هلك فقلت يا رسول الله أليس قد قال الله أما من
+
+123
+00:13:16,530 --> 00:13:22,890
+أوتي كتابه بيمينه فسوف يحاسب حساب يسير فقال لها
+
+124
+00:13:22,890 --> 00:13:28,270
+النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم إنما ذلك العرض وليس أحد
+
+125
+00:13:28,270 --> 00:13:33,770
+يناقش الحساب يوم القيامة إلا عذب والمراد
+
+126
+00:13:33,770 --> 00:13:39,430
+بالمناقشة في الحديث هنا كلمة وليس أحد يناقش المقصود
+
+127
+00:13:39,430 --> 00:13:44,290
+بالمناقشة الاستقصاء في المحاسبة والمطالبة بالجزيل
+
+128
+00:13:44,290 --> 00:13:51,650
+والحقير وترك المسامحة وهذا أمر نستشعره أنه يكون
+
+129
+00:13:51,650 --> 00:13:58,540
+لعصاة الموحدين،فإذا سأل الله تعالى العبد عن كل 
+
+130
+00:13:58,540 --> 00:14:05,520
+صغيرة وكبيرة بدرت منه ولم يسامحه ولم يغفر له ولم 
+
+131
+00:14:05,520 --> 00:14:11,080
+يتجاوز عن سيئاته ولم يفوت له شيئًا، من نوقش حسابه
+
+132
+00:14:11,080 --> 00:14:15,710
+في الحديث فقد عذب، من نوقش، من استقصى الله عز وجل
+
+133
+00:14:15,710 --> 00:14:21,450
+في حسابه، فأحصى عليه كل صغيرة وكبيرة، وترك الله عز
+
+134
+00:14:21,450 --> 00:14:25,790
+وجل مسامحته، لم يسامحه، لم يعف عنه، لم يتجاوز عن
+
+135
+00:14:25,790 --> 00:14:30,130
+سيئته، هذا لابد وأن يعذب، لابد وأن يدخل جهنم،
+
+136
+00:14:30,130 --> 00:14:34,290
+يعاقبه الله تبارك وتعالى على ما بدر منهم المعاصر،
+
+137
+00:14:34,290 --> 00:14:40,760
+ثم يخرج، نعم هو لا يخلد في النار، لكن من يطيق منه
+
+138
+00:14:40,760 --> 00:14:45,800
+عذاب جهنم والعياذ بالله، فعلينا أن نعمل حسابنا على
+
+139
+00:14:45,800 --> 00:14:50,860
+أن نكون دائما على طاعة لله تبارك وتعالى، توابين
+
+140
+00:14:50,860 --> 00:14:56,760
+أوابين، مستغفرين، رجعين للحق، رجعين لله تبارك وتعالى
+
+141
+00:14:56,760 --> 00:15:03,240
+قال بعض العلماء، ذكر الله تعالى الحساب جملة، وجاءت
+
+142
+00:15:03,240 --> 00:15:07,920
+الأخبار بذلك، وفي بعضها ما يدل على أن كثيرا من
+
+143
+00:15:07,920 --> 00:15:13,240
+المؤمنين يدخلون الجنة بغير حساب، فصار الناس إذاً
+
+144
+00:15:13,240 --> 00:15:21,600
+ثلاث فرق، ثلاث فرق، الفريق الأول أمام الحساب، هم
+
+145
+00:15:21,600 --> 00:15:26,340
+أمام الحساب ثلاث فرق، فرقة لا يحسبون أصلا، وهؤلاء
+
+146
+00:15:26,340 --> 00:15:31,170
+ذكروا في حديث النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم، قال سبعون
+
+147
+00:15:31,170 --> 00:15:35,930
+ألفا من أمتي يدخلون الجنة بغير حساب، فوقف له عكاشة
+
+148
+00:15:35,930 --> 00:15:39,290
+بن محصن فقال له يا رسول الله ادعو الله أن أكون
+
+149
+00:15:39,290 --> 00:15:44,770
+منهم، قال أنت منهم، فقام رجل فقال يا رسول الله ادعو
+
+150
+00:15:44,770 --> 00:15:48,930
+الله أن أكون منهم، فقال له النبي سبقك بها عكاشة
+
+151
+00:15:48,930 --> 00:15:58,030
+فضربت مثلا لمن يسبق بالخير، أما الفرقة الثانية فرقة
+
+152
+00:15:58,030 --> 00:16:05,770
+تحاسب حسابا يسيرا، تحاسب حسابا يسيرا، وهما من
+
+153
+00:16:05,770 --> 00:16:08,770
+المؤمنين، يقصد الفرقة الأولى والفرقة الثانية هذه
+
+154
+00:16:08,770 --> 00:16:13,350
+الذين لا يحاسبون أصلا والذين لا يحاسبون حسابا
+
+155
+00:16:13,350 --> 00:16:19,410
+يسيرا، هؤلاء من المؤمنين، وفرقة الثالثة وفرقة تحاسب
+
+156
+00:16:19,410 --> 00:16:26,820
+حسابا شديدة، يكون منها مسلم وكافر، كما قلت قبل قليل
+
+157
+00:16:26,820 --> 00:16:34,340
+بعض عصاة الموحدين، الله عز وجل لم يشأ يسامحهم أن
+
+158
+00:16:34,340 --> 00:16:38,880
+يغفر لهم، أن يتجاوز عن سيئاتهم، فيعاقبهم على بعض
+
+159
+00:16:38,880 --> 00:16:45,020
+معاصيهم، فيناقشهم يحاسبهم حسابا عسيرا فيدخلهم النار
+
+160
+00:16:45,020 --> 00:16:49,080
+نعم، لا يخلدون في النار، يبقون فيها مدة لا يعلم بها
+
+161
+00:16:49,080 --> 00:16:53,560
+إلا هو سبحانه وتعالى، ثم يخرجون من النار
+
+162
+00:16:56,650 --> 00:17:03,390
+وإذا كان من المؤمنين من يكون أدنى إلى رحمة الله
+
+163
+00:17:03,390 --> 00:17:09,610
+فيدخل الجنة بغير حساب، يعني كما أن هناك السبعون ألف
+
+164
+00:17:09,610 --> 00:17:16,090
+يدخلون الجنة بغير حساب، لأنهم أقرب إلى رضوان الله
+
+165
+00:17:16,920 --> 00:17:23,760
+فهناك من الكافرين من هو أقرب إلى غضب الله، فيدخله
+
+166
+00:17:23,760 --> 00:17:31,180
+النار بغير حساب، ملفه مغلق، ملفه مقفل، أمر واضح،
+
+167
+00:17:31,180 --> 00:17:35,770
+ليس له حسنة عند الله تبارك وتعالى، أي نعم، كما قال
+
+168
+00:17:35,770 --> 00:17:41,090
+سبحانه وتعالى، قل هل ننبئكم بالأخسرين، أعمال الذين
+
+169
+00:17:41,090 --> 00:17:46,430
+ضل سعيهم في الحياة الدنيا وهم يحسبون أنهم يحسنون
+
+170
+00:17:46,430 --> 00:17:53,210
+صنعًا، أولئك الذين كفروا، كفروا بآيات ربهم ولقائه
+
+171
+00:17:53,210 --> 00:17:59,090
+فحبطت أعمالهم، قال تعالى، فلا نقيم لهم يوم القيامة
+
+172
+00:17:59,090 --> 00:18:05,610
+وزنًا، يدخلون جهنم والله أعلم بغير حساب، وسائل الإثبات
+
+173
+00:18:05,610 --> 00:18:11,710
+لإدانة المكلف أثناء الحساب، الكافرون الذين تعودوا
+
+174
+00:18:11,710 --> 00:18:18,430
+الكذب على الله عز وجل ومعصيته في الدنيا، هم معتادون
+
+175
+00:18:18,430 --> 00:18:24,310
+على ذلك، فليس مستبعد أن يكذب الواحد منهم، بل أن يكذب
+
+176
+00:18:24,310 --> 00:18:30,630
+الله عز وجل يوم القيامة، فيقيم الله عز وجل عليهم
+
+177
+00:18:30,630 --> 00:18:41,220
+الشهود، والليل والنهار، والحفظة الكرام، والملائكة، أحد عشر
+
+178
+00:18:41,220 --> 00:18:47,980
+شاهدًا، سيشهد على الإنسان العاصي يوم القيامة، ثم ساق
+
+179
+00:18:47,980 --> 00:18:51,940
+لإثبات ذلك عددًا من الآيات والأحاديث، يعني كل هذه
+
+180
+00:18:51,940 --> 00:18:57,200
+عليها ورد في القرآن وفي السنة، أنها تشهد على
+
+181
+00:18:57,200 --> 00:19:02,370
+الإنسان، اكتفينا ببعضها، واحد شهادة كتب الأعمال أو
+
+182
+00:19:02,370 --> 00:19:10,850
+الصحف، فالكتب والصحف التي نتسلمها بأيماننا، نتسلمها
+
+183
+00:19:10,850 --> 00:19:16,350
+بأيدينا، هي تشهد علينا يوم القيامة، أيضا يشهد على
+
+184
+00:19:16,350 --> 00:19:22,490
+الإنسان نفسه، الإنسان يشهد عليه بعض أعضائه، ينطقها
+
+185
+00:19:22,490 --> 00:19:27,170
+الله تبارك وتعالى، قال تعالى، يوم تشهد عليهم ألسنتهم
+
+186
+00:19:28,040 --> 00:19:34,840
+وأيديهم وأرجلهم بما كانوا يعملون، قال تعالى في سورة
+
+187
+00:19:34,840 --> 00:19:41,660
+ياسين، اليوم نختم على أفواههم، وتكلمنا أيديهم، وتشهد
+
+188
+00:19:41,660 --> 00:19:50,280
+أرجلهم بما كانوا يكسبون، فإذا أعضاءنا تشهد علينا،
+
+189
+00:19:50,280 --> 00:19:56,060
+أعضاءنا التي مارسنا بها المعاصي هي تشهد علينا، تقول
+
+190
+00:19:56,060 --> 00:20:01,170
+القدم، ينطقها الله تبارك وتعالى يوم القيامة، فتقول
+
+191
+00:20:01,170 --> 00:20:06,470
+نعم، أنت فعلت المعصية الفلانية، مشيت بها من المكان
+
+192
+00:20:06,470 --> 00:20:12,050
+الفلاني إلى المكان الفلاني، وفعلت هناك المعصية، أو
+
+193
+00:20:12,050 --> 00:20:19,680
+اللسان أو اليد أو الجلد، هكذا تشهد أعضاء الإنسان
+
+194
+00:20:19,680 --> 00:20:23,980
+عليه، أيضًا الأنبياء يشهدون، الأنبياء والمرسلين
+
+195
+00:20:23,980 --> 00:20:28,780
+يشهدون على الأمم، فكيف إذا جئنا من كل أمة بشهيد
+
+196
+00:20:28,780 --> 00:20:35,320
+وجئنا بك على هؤلاء شهيدة، فكل نبي يشهد على أمته
+
+197
+00:20:35,320 --> 00:20:43,440
+أقصرت أم قامت بما أوجب الله تعالى عليها، بل إن
+
+198
+00:20:43,440 --> 00:20:49,320
+الأرض أيضًا تشهد بما حدث على ظهرها، كما قال تعالى في
+
+199
+00:20:49,320 --> 00:20:56,080
+سورة الزلزلة، يومئذ تحدث أخبارها، سأل النبي صلى الله
+
+200
+00:20:56,080 --> 00:20:59,680
+عليه وسلم الصحابة الكرام، قال أتدرون ما أخبارها؟
+
+201
+00:20:59,680 --> 00:21:07,140
+قالوا الله ورسوله أعلم، قال أخبارها، أخبارها أن تشهد
+
+202
+00:21:07,140 --> 00:21:13,820
+على كل عبد أو أمة بما عمل على ظهرها، ماذا تقول؟ تقول
+
+203
+00:21:13,820 --> 00:21:24,800
+عمل يوم كذا كذا وكذا، فهذه أخبارها، هذه أخبارها
+
+204
+00:21:24,800 --> 00:21:29,080
+فالأرض التي فعلنا عليها المعاصي تشهد علينا يوم
+
+205
+00:21:29,080 --> 00:21:34,320
+القيامة، وهذا أيضا من شدة إعذار الله تبارك وتعالى
+
+206
+00:21:34,320 --> 00:21:38,680
+الله عز وجل يقيم علينا الحجة ويقيم علينا الشهود
+
+207
+00:21:38,680 --> 00:21:49,150
+وهذا ليس بالأمر الغريب، سادسا من تفاصيل اليوم الآخر
+
+208
+00:21:49,150 --> 00:21:56,870
+وأحداثه، الميزان في ختام الحساب، ينصب الميزان لوزن
+
+209
+00:21:56,870 --> 00:22:02,250
+أعمال العباد، قال الإمام القرطبي في كتابه التذكرة
+
+210
+00:22:02,250 --> 00:22:07,570
+في أحوال الموت والآخرة، قال العلماء إذا انقضى حسابه
+
+211
+00:22:07,570 --> 00:22:18,200
+كان بعده وزن الأعمال، ففي الحساب الإنسان عرف ما له وما
+
+212
+00:22:18,200 --> 00:22:27,980
+عليه، عرف أين وفق، أين نجح، أين كان مصيبًا، وأين
+
+213
+00:22:27,980 --> 00:22:36,600
+أخفق، أين عصى، إذا علم حسناته من سيئاته، فيأمر الله
+
+214
+00:22:36,600 --> 00:22:42,960
+تبارك وتعالى، فتحول حسناته إلى مثاقيل وسيئاته إلى
+
+215
+00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:54,340
+مثاقيل، ثم توزن الحسنات والسيئات بالميزان، والميزان
+
+216
+00:22:54,340 --> 00:23:02,780
+مختلف في حقيقته على قولين، الأول رأي الجمهور من
+
+217
+00:23:02,780 --> 00:23:08,600
+العلماء، وهو قول أهل السنة والجماعة، أن الله تعالى
+
+218
+00:23:08,600 --> 00:23:15,840
+ينصب ميزانًا حقيقيًا، لسان وكفتان يوم القيامة، توزن
+
+219
+00:23:15,840 --> 00:23:21,220
+به أعمال العباد، خيرها وشرها، هذا هو قول الجمهور، وهو
+
+220
+00:23:21,220 --> 00:23:27,260
+القول الراجح لظاهر الأحاديث الواردة في ذلك، سنوردها
+
+221
+00:23:27,260 --> 00:23:35,000
+إن شاء الله بعد قليل، أما القول الثاني فقد أولوا
+
+222
+00:23:35,000 --> 00:23:42,000
+الميزان بأنه العدل والقضاء، في تقدير ما به يكون
+
+223
+00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:47,620
+الجزاء من الأعمال، إذا عند هؤلاء ليس ميزانا حقيقيًا
+
+224
+00:23:47,620 --> 00:23:54,480
+إنما يقصدون بالميزان، يفهمون، يؤولون النصوص التي
+
+225
+00:23:54,480 --> 00:24:01,980
+تذكر الميزان بأنه العدل والقضاء في تقديره، عدل الله
+
+226
+00:24:01,980 --> 00:24:07,390
+يعني عز وجل وقضائه في الإنسان، فالعدل والقضاء هو
+
+227
+00:24:07,390 --> 00:24:14,050
+الميزان عندهم، حجتهم في ذلك أن حمل الوزن، أن نفهم أن
+
+228
+00:24:14,050 --> 00:24:21,350
+الوزن يعني بكفتين ليس شائعًا في اللغة، إنما يمكن أن
+
+229
+00:24:21,350 --> 00:24:28,150
+نفهم أن الوزن هو العدل، يعني كما نسمع مثلا عندهم كما
+
+230
+00:24:28,150 --> 00:24:32,530
+نسمع إنسانًا يتكلم كلامًا صوابًا، فنقول هو الكلام
+
+231
+00:24:32,530 --> 00:24:37,750
+الموزون، هذا هو العدل، هذا هو الكلام اللي إيه اللي
+
+232
+00:24:37,750 --> 00:24:43,390
+بيجعل ميزانًا، هذا قول المعتزلة، فقالوا أن الميزان هو
+
+233
+00:24:43,390 --> 00:24:47,970
+العدل، لأن الأعمال عندهم أعراض بمعنى الصفات، يعني
+
+234
+00:24:47,970 --> 00:24:52,980
+والأعراض يستحيل وزنها، إذ لا تقوم بنفسها، يعني لأن لو
+
+235
+00:24:52,980 --> 00:24:59,300
+فعلت معصية مثلا، استهزأت بأحدهم، أخرجته لساني بعيب
+
+236
+00:24:59,300 --> 00:25:04,360
+عليه، فكيف الله عز وجل يحاسبني على هذا الأمر؟ كيف
+
+237
+00:25:04,360 --> 00:25:10,990
+سيزن هذه المعصية؟ أو اغتبط فلانًا، فذكرته بسوء، كيف
+
+238
+00:25:10,990 --> 00:25:16,910
+يحاسب الله، كيف يزن، كيف يوزن هذا العمل، كيف يوزن
+
+239
+00:25:16,910 --> 00:25:23,070
+فلذلك هم يتساءلون، لحظه، هم يعملون عقولهم يتساءلون
+
+240
+00:25:23,070 --> 00:25:28,330
+كيف يتصور وزن الأعمال وهي أعراض، يعني صفات، والأعراض
+
+241
+00:25:28,330 --> 00:25:34,660
+لا توصف لا بالخفة ولا بالثقل، كيف؟ فلذلك ذهبوا إلى
+
+242
+00:25:34,660 --> 00:25:40,720
+أن المقصود بالميزان، مش ميزان حقيقي، إنما هو إيه؟
+
+243
+00:25:40,720 --> 00:25:47,020
+إنما هو العدل وقضاء الله في الناس يوم القيامة، كيف
+
+244
+00:25:47,020 --> 00:25:53,700
+نرد على هؤلاء؟ ويمكن أن يجابوا بأن الكتاب والسنة
+
+245
+00:25:53,700 --> 00:25:59,760
+يدلان على أن الميزان غير العدل، وأنه ميزان حقيقي
+
+246
+00:25:59,760 --> 00:26:04,540
+توزن به الأعمال، ميزان حقيقي، كما رأى أهل السنة
+
+247
+00:26:04,540 --> 00:26:10,440
+والجماعة، قال شيخ الإسلام ابن تيمية، الميزان هو ما
+
+248
+00:26:10,440 --> 00:26:16,540
+يوزن به الأعمال، وهو غير العدل، هو في عدل، مش مافيش
+
+249
+00:26:16,540 --> 00:26:21,280
+فالله عز وجل من أسمائه العادل، والله عز وجل من
+
+250
+00:26:21,280 --> 00:26:27,520
+صفاته العدل، لكن ليس المقصود به الميزان، ولا الميزان 
+
+251
+00:26:27,520 --> 00:26:32,620
+هو العدل الميزان ميزان حقيقي دل على ذلك الكتاب
+
+252
+00:26:32,620 --> 00:26:39,840
+والسنة كما في قوله تعالى فاما من ثقلت موازينه فإما 
+
+253
+00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:47,340
+من خفت موازينه قال تعالى ونضع الموازين القسطة ليوم
+
+254
+00:26:47,340 --> 00:26:55,000
+القيامة هل نقول ونضع الموازين ونضع عدل الله، نضع عدل
+
+255
+00:26:55,000 --> 00:26:59,980
+الله وقضائه ونضع الموازين إذا هناك فيه موازين
+
+256
+00:26:59,980 --> 00:27:09,340
+حقيقية دلت عليها النصوص ففي الصحيحين مثلا عن النبي 
+
+257
+00:27:09,340 --> 00:27:14,500
+صلى الله عليه وسلم قال كلمتان خفيفتان على اللسان
+
+258
+00:27:14,500 --> 00:27:21,180
+ثقيلتان في الميزان، هل بنفع نقول ثقيلتان في
+
+259
+00:27:21,180 --> 00:27:27,650
+عدل الله؟ فقيلتان في قضاء الله، فقيلتان في الميزان،
+
+260
+00:27:27,650 --> 00:27:32,870
+حبيبتان إلى الرحمن، حبيبتان إلى الرحمن، سبحان الله
+
+261
+00:27:32,870 --> 00:27:39,400
+وبحمده، سبحان الله العظيم، النصوص تدل على ذلك، اسمعي
+
+262
+00:27:39,400 --> 00:27:41,680
+ماذا يقول النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم في ساقية
+
+263
+00:27:41,680 --> 00:27:47,680
+عبدالله بن مسعود صعد على شجرة يتناول عودا من أراك
+
+264
+00:27:47,680 --> 00:27:56,200
+فكادت الريح أن تكفئه من خفة جسمه ووزنه، فقال النبي 
+
+265
+00:27:56,200 --> 00:28:01,160
+صلى الله عليه وسلم مما تضحكون؟ فقالوا من دقة ساقية
+
+266
+00:28:01,160 --> 00:28:04,860
+عبدالله بن مسعود يا رسول الله فأقسم النبي والذي
+
+267
+00:28:04,860 --> 00:28:17,620
+نفسه محمد بيده لهم في الميزان، لهم في الميزان
+
+268
+00:28:17,620 --> 00:28:26,950
+أثقل من أحد، أما كيفية تلك الموازين فهو بمنزلة كيفية
+
+269
+00:28:26,950 --> 00:28:30,390
+سائر ما أخبرنا به سبحانه وتعالى عن الغيب، هذه
+
+270
+00:28:30,390 --> 00:28:36,490
+غيبيات، غيبيات لا نعلم كيفيتها، أما الأدلة فكثيرة من 
+
+271
+00:28:36,490 --> 00:28:40,990
+القرآن، ونضع الموازين القسطة ليوم القيامة، فأما من
+
+272
+00:28:40,990 --> 00:28:45,130
+ثقلت موازينه فهو في عيشة راضية، وأما من خفت
+
+273
+00:28:45,130 --> 00:28:49,810
+موازينه فأمه هاوية، في قوله تعالى ومن خفت موازينه
+
+274
+00:28:49,810 --> 00:28:55,430
+فأولئك الذين خسروا أنفسهم، هذا من القرآن، من السنة 
+
+275
+00:28:55,430 --> 00:29:01,770
+الحديث عند الإمام الحاكم عن سلمان رضي الله عنه عن
+
+276
+00:29:01,770 --> 00:29:05,890
+النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم قال يوضع الميزان يوم
+
+277
+00:29:05,890 --> 00:29:11,250
+القيامة، إذا 
+
+278
+00:29:11,250 --> 00:29:18,850
+الميزان ميزان حقيقي، فلو وزن فيه السماوات والأرض
+
+279
+00:29:18,850 --> 00:29:23,910
+لوسعت، فتقول الملائكة يا رب لمن يزن هذا؟ فيقول الله
+
+280
+00:29:23,910 --> 00:29:28,170
+تعالى لمن شئت من خلقي، فتقول الملائكة سبحانك ما
+
+281
+00:29:28,170 --> 00:29:36,390
+عبدناك حق عبادتك، ويوضع الصراط مثل حد الموس، فتقول
+
+282
+00:29:36,390 --> 00:29:42,180
+الملائكة من يجيز هذا؟ من يجيز على هذا؟ فيقول من شئت
+
+283
+00:29:42,180 --> 00:29:48,240
+من خلقي، فيقول تقول الملائكة سبحانك ما عبدناك حق
+
+284
+00:29:48,240 --> 00:29:54,660
+عبادتك، ما الذي يوزن في الميزان؟ هذا مبحث تحدث فيه 
+
+285
+00:29:54,660 --> 00:30:02,600
+العلماء وتوسع في ذلك وهي مسألة خلافية تتسع فيها
+
+286
+00:30:02,600 --> 00:30:08,180
+يجب أن تتسع لها الصدور، هذا الخلاف بين العلماء خلاف
+
+287
+00:30:08,180 --> 00:30:16,100
+محمود، ينبني على الأدلة من نصوص صحيحة من الكتاب ومن
+
+288
+00:30:16,100 --> 00:30:21,540
+السنة، وهذا الخلاف لا يوجب لا تكفير ولا تفسيق ولا
+
+289
+00:30:21,540 --> 00:30:27,140
+تضليل، تماما كاختلافهم مثلا على سبيل المثال في
+
+290
+00:30:27,140 --> 00:30:32,780
+المفاضلة بين الأنبياء والمرسلين، أو في المفاضلة بين
+
+291
+00:30:32,780 --> 00:30:40,780
+الملائكة وصالح البشر، أو كالخلاف بينهم في مسمى
+
+292
+00:30:40,780 --> 00:30:46,790
+الإيمان والإسلام، ما الفرق بين الإسلام والإيمان؟ هل
+
+293
+00:30:46,790 --> 00:30:51,370
+كل مؤمن مسلم؟ أو كل مسلم مؤمن؟ فالخلاف في هذه
+
+294
+00:30:51,370 --> 00:30:58,830
+القضايا أمر هي لأن الفرقاء كل فريق يعتمد على نصوص
+
+295
+00:30:58,830 --> 00:31:03,770
+صحيحة، فلا ينبني على هذا الخلاف تفسيق أو تضليل أو
+
+296
+00:31:03,770 --> 00:31:08,270
+تكفير أو تبديع، فالأمر فيه متسع
+
+297
+00:31:12,990 --> 00:31:17,770
+هذا الأمر .. هذه المسألة التي يوزن في الميزان على
+
+298
+00:31:17,770 --> 00:31:23,510
+ثلاثة أقوال، القول الأول أن الأعمال نفسها هي التي
+
+299
+00:31:23,510 --> 00:31:29,030
+توزن، الأعمال التي تصدر من العبد هي التي توزن في
+
+300
+00:31:29,030 --> 00:31:35,970
+الحديث، الطهور شطر الإيمان، والحمد لله تملأ الميزان،
+
+301
+00:31:35,970 --> 00:31:41,940
+هذا عمل من أعمالك، عندما تقول الحمد لله، كما جاء في
+
+302
+00:31:41,940 --> 00:31:46,840
+الحديث، كلمتان خفيفتان على اللسان، ثقيلتان في
+
+303
+00:31:46,840 --> 00:31:52,680
+الميزان، حبيبتان إلى الرحمن، سبحان الله وبحمده، سبحان
+
+304
+00:31:52,680 --> 00:31:56,340
+الله العظيم، أن تقول هذا القول هذا ثقيل في الميزان،
+
+305
+00:31:56,340 --> 00:32:01,020
+هذا عمل من أعمالك، فالأعمال هي التي توزن، هذا القول
+
+306
+00:32:01,020 --> 00:32:08,220
+رجحه ابن حجر العسقلاني ونصره، فقال ماذا؟ قال
+
+307
+00:32:08,220 --> 00:32:16,680
+والصحيح أن الأعمال هي التي توزن، واستدل
+
+308
+00:32:16,680 --> 00:32:22,560
+بحديث آخر يرويه أبو داود والترمذي وصححه ابن حبان
+
+309
+00:32:22,560 --> 00:32:26,840
+عن أبي الدرداء عن النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم قال ما
+
+310
+00:32:26,840 --> 00:32:34,120
+يوضع في الميزان يوم القيامة أفقل من خلق حسن الخلق؟
+
+311
+00:32:34,120 --> 00:32:38,870
+اللي حسن عمل، أليس كذلك؟ عمل من أعمال الإنسان،
+
+312
+00:32:38,870 --> 00:32:43,210
+الأخلاق الحسنة، فإذا هذا الفريق يرى أن الأعمال هي
+
+313
+00:32:43,210 --> 00:32:49,330
+التي توزن، الفريق الآخر يرى أن العامل نفسه هو الذي
+
+314
+00:32:49,330 --> 00:32:54,610
+يوزن، الإنسان نفسه، سواء كان كافر أو مؤمن، هو اللي
+
+315
+00:32:54,610 --> 00:33:01,510
+بيوزن، أيضا يدل على ذلك الأحاديث والنصوص، من النصوص
+
+316
+00:33:01,510 --> 00:33:05,950
+التي تدل على ذلك، إذا هذا الرأي يقول أن النصوص دلت
+
+317
+00:33:05,950 --> 00:33:09,670
+على أن العباد يوزنون يوم القيامة، فيثقلون في
+
+318
+00:33:09,670 --> 00:33:15,150
+الميزان أو يخفون بمقدار إيمانهم، لا بضخامة أجسادهم
+
+319
+00:33:15,150 --> 00:33:21,050
+وكثرة ما عليهم من لحم ودهن، بحسب أعمالهم، بمقدار
+
+320
+00:33:21,050 --> 00:33:28,070
+إيمانهم، ففي الحديث إنه ليأتي يوم القيامة الرجل
+
+321
+00:33:28,070 --> 00:33:32,610
+العظيم السمين، يوم القيامة لا يزن عند الله جناح
+
+322
+00:33:32,610 --> 00:33:37,330
+بعوضة، وقال 
+
+323
+00:33:37,330 --> 00:33:41,910
+صلى الله عليه وسلم اقرأوا إن شئتم، فلا نقيم لهم يوم
+
+324
+00:33:41,910 --> 00:33:47,570
+القيامة وزن، ما يهم وزن، لما الواحد منهم يوضع في
+
+325
+00:33:47,570 --> 00:33:53,350
+الميزان تعجبك، تعجبك
+
+326
+00:33:53,350 --> 00:34:05,220
+إيه، أجسامهم، قال تعالى يعني كأنهم خشب مسندة، الكافرون
+
+327
+00:34:05,220 --> 00:34:11,960
+المنافقون، يعجبوا الواحد منا يعجبنا منه منظره
+
+328
+00:34:11,960 --> 00:34:17,560
+وهيئته، لكنه عند الله عز وجل لا يزن جناح بعوضة
+
+329
+00:34:17,560 --> 00:34:23,910
+ويُقتب الرجل النحيف الضعيف دقيق الساقين، فإذا به يزن
+
+330
+00:34:23,910 --> 00:34:30,630
+الجبال، يدل على ذلك حديث من؟ أيوة، الحديث في حق ابن
+
+331
+00:34:30,630 --> 00:34:37,050
+مسعود رضي الله عنه والذي حكي حكيناه قبل قليل، أما 
+
+332
+00:34:37,050 --> 00:34:44,410
+الرأي الثالث، أن الذي يوزن أصحاب الرأي الثالث
+
+333
+00:34:44,410 --> 00:34:51,820
+يقولون أن الذي يوزن هو صحف الأعمال، وهو ما صحاه هو
+
+334
+00:34:51,820 --> 00:34:56,680
+القرطبي وابن عبدالبر، وذهب إليه جمهور من المفسرين
+
+335
+00:34:56,680 --> 00:35:04,380
+واستدلوا بحديث يسمى حديث البطاقة، يسمى حديث البطاقة
+
+336
+00:35:04,380 --> 00:35:10,200
+مشهور عند علماء الحديث بهذا المسمى، وهو حديث يرويه
+
+337
+00:35:10,200 --> 00:35:13,140
+الإمام الترمذي عن عبدالله بن عمرو بن العاص رضي
+
+338
+00:35:13,140 --> 00:35:18,760
+الله عنهما، قال قال صلى الله عليه وسلم إن الله سيخلص
+
+339
+00:35:18,760 --> 00:35:25,040
+رجلا من أمتي على رؤوس الخلائق يوم القيامة، فينشر
+
+340
+00:35:25,040 --> 00:35:32,300
+عليه تسعة وتسعين سجلا، كل سجل مثل مد البصر، يعني
+
+341
+00:35:32,300 --> 00:35:40,990
+الله سيأتي بواحد من عباده، عمر في هذه الدنيا، يسلمه
+
+342
+00:35:40,990 --> 00:35:48,990
+الكتب التي كتبت عليها الملائكة الكرام البررة، يريه
+
+343
+00:35:48,990 --> 00:35:53,410
+إياها، وهذا ليس من الأمر العسير، يمكن لنا أن نهضم
+
+344
+00:35:53,410 --> 00:35:57,970
+هذا الموضوع اليوم بكل بساطة، قد يقول قائل يعني أنا
+
+345
+00:35:57,970 --> 00:36:02,530
+أريد أن أجيب على تساؤل، أحيانا قد يسأل سائل، وماذا
+
+346
+00:36:02,530 --> 00:36:06,090
+ستكتب الملائكة؟ فنحن الواحد مننا يعيش مثلا سبعين
+
+347
+00:36:06,090 --> 00:36:09,850
+سنة أو مائة سنة أو مائة وعشرين سنة، قد يطول له
+
+348
+00:36:09,850 --> 00:36:14,650
+العمر، يطول في عمره فيفعل كثير من المعاصي وكثير من
+
+349
+00:36:14,650 --> 00:36:18,980
+السيئات أو كثير من الطاعات، إلى أي شيء ستتسع هذه
+
+350
+00:36:18,980 --> 00:36:24,500
+الكتب اليوم بعد هذه المختارات التي يعني نعيشها في
+
+351
+00:36:24,500 --> 00:36:30,100
+عصرنا، مثل الـ hard disk أو الـ flash الذي يحمل يعني
+
+352
+00:36:30,100 --> 00:36:36,550
+مكتبات كاملة، وهو في جيب أحدنا، لا أحد يشعر به، بل
+
+353
+00:36:36,550 --> 00:36:40,890
+هو لا يشعر بثقة له أصلا، لا يشعر بثقة له، هذا لعله
+
+354
+00:36:40,890 --> 00:36:46,850
+يقرب الفكرة إلى هذه الكتب التي تسجلها الملائكة،
+
+355
+00:36:46,850 --> 00:36:52,020
+فهذه الملائكة الكتب التي تسجلها الملائكة، لا ندري
+
+356
+00:36:52,020 --> 00:36:55,900
+كيفيتها، لا ندري، هي من أمور الغيب، لا نعلم بها،
+
+357
+00:36:55,900 --> 00:36:59,580
+والله تبارك وتعالى على كل شيء قدير، وقد هيأها الله 
+
+358
+00:36:59,580 --> 00:37:05,260
+تبارك وتعالى، هيأ الملائكة لأن تكتب هذه الكتب،
+
+359
+00:37:05,260 --> 00:37:09,980
+تعرض أعمال هذا الإنسان في تسعة وتسعين سجلا، كل
+
+360
+00:37:09,980 --> 00:37:14,800
+سجل مثل مد البصر، ثم يقول الله عز وجل لهذا العبد،
+
+361
+00:37:14,800 --> 00:37:20,500
+أتمكر من هذا شيء؟ أظلمك كتبتي الحافظون؟ فيقول لا يا
+
+362
+00:37:20,500 --> 00:37:27,000
+رب، فيقول أفلك عذر؟ فيقول لا يا رب، مستسلم خلاص لأن
+
+363
+00:37:27,000 --> 00:37:33,700
+كل شيء موجود مسجل عليه، فيقول بلى الله عز وجل إن لك
+
+364
+00:37:33,700 --> 00:37:40,710
+عندنا حسنة، فإنك لا ظلم عليك اليوم، لك عنا حسنة
+
+365
+00:37:40,710 --> 00:37:46,290
+فتخرج بطاقة، لذلك سمي الحديث حديث البطاقة، فتخرج
+
+366
+00:37:46,290 --> 00:37:51,310
+بطاقة فيها أشهد أن لا إله إلا الله وأشهد أن محمدا
+
+367
+00:37:51,310 --> 00:37:58,050
+عبده ورسوله، فيقول الله عز وجله احضر وزنك، فيقول يا
+
+368
+00:37:58,050 --> 00:38:02,770
+رب ما هذه البطاقة مع هذه السجلات؟ يقارن هذه البطاقة
+
+369
+00:38:02,770 --> 00:38:08,750
+مع السجلات التي رأها، فقال فيقول الله عز وجل إنك لا
+
+370
+00:38:08,750 --> 00:38:14,810
+تظلم، قال، فتوضع السجلات في كفة والبطاقة في كفة
+
+371
+00:38:14,810 --> 00:38:20,450
+فطاشت السجلات وثقلت البطاقة، فلا يثقل مع اسم الله
+
+372
+00:38:20,450 --> 00:38:25,830
+شيء، هذا يدل على أهمية التوحيد، أن الله لا يغفر أن
+
+373
+00:38:25,830 --> 00:38:32,210
+يشرك به، إن الله لا يغفر أي شرك به ويغفر ما دون ذلك
+
+374
+00:38:32,210 --> 00:38:37,930
+لمن يشاء، الذنب الوحيد الذي لا يقبل الله عز وجل
+
+375
+00:38:37,930 --> 00:38:42,590
+مغفرته، لا يغفره الله تبارك وتعالى هو الشرك به
+
+376
+00:38:42,590 --> 00:38:48,150
+سبحانه وتعالى أما ما دون ذلك من معاصي فالله تبارك 
+
+377
+00:38:48,150 --> 00:38:52,070
+وتعالى يغفرها والأحاديث في ذلك كثيرة حديث الرجل
+
+378
+00:38:52,070 --> 00:38:58,400
+الذي قتل مئة نفس فغفر الله وأمر أبناءه أن إذا مات 
+
+379
+00:38:58,400 --> 00:39:05,320
+أن يحرقوه وأن يعني يجعلوه رمادًا فيذروه بين الماء
+
+380
+00:39:05,320 --> 00:39:09,880
+وبين اليابسة بين البحر وبين اليابسة فبعثاه الله عز
+
+381
+00:39:09,880 --> 00:39:14,180
+وجل فغفر له وكذلك المرأة الباغية التي تعمل في
+
+382
+00:39:14,180 --> 00:39:18,200
+البغاء الذنب مقابل أجر أيضًا سقط كلبًا فغفر الله
+
+383
+00:39:18,200 --> 00:39:22,640
+تبارك وتعالى لها إلى آخره يدل على أن الذنوب قابلة
+
+384
+00:39:22,640 --> 00:39:26,260
+للمغفرة إذا رأينا في هذا الموضوع ما الذي يوزن
+
+385
+00:39:28,790 --> 00:39:33,210
+فريق يقول أن الأعمال هي التي توزن، وفريق يقول أن
+
+386
+00:39:33,210 --> 00:39:37,030
+العامل نفسه هو الذي يوزن، وفريق ثالث يقول أن
+
+387
+00:39:37,030 --> 00:39:41,070
+الصحائف هي التي توزن، قال الدكتور عمر سليمان
+
+388
+00:39:41,070 --> 00:39:47,660
+الأشقر بعد أن أورد الأقوال السابقة، ولعل الحق أن
+
+389
+00:39:47,660 --> 00:39:54,860
+الذي يوزن هو العامل وعمله وصحف أعماله لماذا؟ فقد
+
+390
+00:39:54,860 --> 00:40:00,180
+دلت النصوص التي سقناها على أن كل واحد من هذه
+
+391
+00:40:00,180 --> 00:40:06,650
+الثلاثة يوزن النصوص الصحيحة ولم تنفي النصوص المثبتة
+
+392
+00:40:06,650 --> 00:40:12,430
+لوزن الواحد منها أن غيره لا يوزن فيكون مقتضى
+
+393
+00:40:12,430 --> 00:40:18,150
+الجامع بين النصوص إثبات الثلاثة المذكورة جميعها
+
+394
+00:40:18,150 --> 00:40:23,370
+هذا الأفضل أن نعمل الأقوال الثلاثة ونجمع بين هذه
+
+395
+00:40:23,370 --> 00:40:30,510
+النصوص فنقول الثلاثة توزن الأعمال والعامل والصحف
+
+396
+00:40:31,480 --> 00:40:37,120
+وهذا أفضل من أن نأخذ برأي ونهمل الآراء الأخرى أو 
+
+397
+00:40:37,120 --> 00:40:41,380
+النصوص الأخرى أيضًا هذا ما ذهب إليه الشيخ حافظ
+
+398
+00:40:41,380 --> 00:40:45,280
+حكمي عليه الرحمة الله قال والذي استظهر من النصوص
+
+399
+00:40:45,280 --> 00:40:52,120
+والله أعلم أن العامل وعمله وصحيفة عمله كل ذلك يوزن
+
+400
+00:40:52,120 --> 00:40:56,280
+لأن الأحاديث التي في بيان القرآن قد وردت بكل من
+
+401
+00:40:56,280 --> 00:41:02,520
+ذلك ولا منافاة بينهما فهذا يدل على أن العبد يوضع هو
+
+402
+00:41:02,520 --> 00:41:09,880
+هو وحسناته وصحيفتهم وصحيفتها في كفة وسيئاته مع
+
+403
+00:41:09,880 --> 00:41:15,200
+صحيفتها في الكفة الأخرى وهذا غاية الجمع بينما تفرق
+
+404
+00:41:15,200 --> 00:41:20,900
+ذكره في سائر أحاديث الوزن ولله الحمد والمنّة بقى
+
+405
+00:41:20,900 --> 00:41:26,420
+هذان العنوانان الحكمة من الميزان ما الحكمة من
+
+406
+00:41:26,420 --> 00:41:31,080
+الميزان؟ هو إظهار العدل وبيان الفضل ولعل في ذلك
+
+407
+00:41:31,080 --> 00:41:36,540
+حكمة فعلا لأننا متعودون نحن في الدنيا على الرضا
+
+408
+00:41:36,540 --> 00:41:41,900
+نحن نرضى بوزن الميزان فالميزان كما يقول لا يستحي
+
+409
+00:41:41,900 --> 00:41:48,300
+من أحد لا يستحي من أحد وبالتالي نحن متعودون نتراضى
+
+410
+00:41:48,300 --> 00:41:53,500
+في ما بيننا بوزن الميزان فالله تبارك وتعالى من شدة
+
+411
+00:41:53,500 --> 00:41:59,060
+إعذاره يزن لنا أعمالنا يزن لنا أعمالنا لمن يكون
+
+412
+00:41:59,060 --> 00:42:06,680
+الوزن توزن أعمال منخلطة عملا صالحا و آخر سيئا من
+
+413
+00:42:06,680 --> 00:42:11,820
+المؤمنين يعني الذين فعلوا طاعات ومعاصي توزن
+
+414
+00:42:11,820 --> 00:42:16,840
+أعمالهم لينال كل جزائه وتوزن أعمال المؤمنين
+
+415
+00:42:16,840 --> 00:42:22,820
+المتقين لإظهار فضلهم حتى تظهر مكانتهم عند الله عز
+
+416
+00:42:22,820 --> 00:42:28,120
+وجل أما السبعون ألفا الذين يدخلون الجنة بغير حساب
+
+417
+00:42:28,120 --> 00:42:35,070
+فهؤلاء لا يرفع لهم ميزان لا يرفع لهم ميزان ولا
+
+418
+00:42:35,070 --> 00:42:40,550
+يأخذون صحفا وإنما هي براءات مكتوب عليها لا إله إلا
+
+419
+00:42:40,550 --> 00:42:45,330
+الله محمد رسول الله هذه براءة فلان ابن فلان قد غفر
+
+420
+00:42:45,330 --> 00:42:50,810
+له وسعد سعادة لا يشقى بعدها أيضًا توزن أعمال
+
+421
+00:42:50,810 --> 00:42:58,850
+الكافرين إظهارا لخزهم وذلهم وتبكيتا لهم على خلوهم
+
+422
+00:42:58,850 --> 00:43:05,500
+من كل خير يكون الميزان للكافرين حتى يظهر عدل الله
+
+423
+00:43:05,500 --> 00:43:11,460
+عز وجل وحتى يبين أنهم يستحقون ما سيكون لهم من
+
+424
+00:43:11,460 --> 00:43:16,140
+العذاب ومن دخولهم النار أما حكم الإيمان بالميزان
+
+425
+00:43:16,140 --> 00:43:21,200
+فهو لا شك أنه واجب لثبوته بالكتاب والسنة كما تقدم
+
+426
+00:43:21,200 --> 00:43:25,660
+أقول قول هذا وأستغفر الله لي ولكم والسلام عليكم
+
+427
+00:43:25,660 --> 00:43:26,900
+ورحمة الله وبركاته
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/T5NJLpnn1Fk_raw.json b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/T5NJLpnn1Fk_raw.json
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..27b0044d4dba8366340dcb7f2c3b61c792ce8d1f
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/T5NJLpnn1Fk_raw.json
@@ -0,0 +1 @@
+{"segments": [{"id": 1, "seek": 4559, "start": 21.67, "end": 45.59, "text": "أعوذ بالله السميع العلي من الشيطان الرجيم بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم الحمد لله رب العالمين وأصلي وأسلم على رسول الله الأمين محمد بن عبد الله الصادق الأمين صلى الله عليه وعلى آله وصحبي وسلم أجمعين وبعد بعد أن انتهينا من الحديث عن الحشر يوم القيامة", "tokens": [10721, 3615, 2407, 8848, 20666, 43761, 21136, 2304, 40228, 18863, 20292, 9154, 25124, 1829, 9566, 7649, 34892, 7435, 32640, 4724, 38251, 21984, 34892, 5016, 27842, 34892, 5016, 32640, 21542, 2304, 3215, 24976, 3224, 12602, 3555, 18863, 45340, 9957, 36725, 9381, 20292, 36725, 3794, 19528, 15844, 12602, 3794, 12610, 21984, 16247, 2304, 9957, 3714, 35571, 3215, 44945, 6225, 44510, 21984, 31767, 18513, 4587, 16247, 2304, 9957, 20328, 23942, 21984, 47356, 4032, 3615, 23942, 19753, 43761, 4032, 9381, 5016, 21292, 46952, 19528, 5551, 7435, 2304, 3615, 9957, 46599, 22488, 39182, 14739, 16472, 47395, 1829, 8315, 9154, 21542, 16254, 12984, 18871, 21542, 46309, 7251, 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اللي بيجعل ميزان هذا قول المعتزلة فقالوا أن الميزان هو العدل لأن الأعمال عندهم أعراض بمعنى الصفات يعني والأعراض يستحيل وزنها", "tokens": [40228, 22653, 9122, 15042, 8717, 38251, 3615, 50113, 15040, 43242, 16095, 9122, 15042, 8717, 38251, 3615, 36145, 3794, 7649, 7251, 2655, 4117, 19528, 28242, 10943, 995, 20328, 14407, 3555, 995, 6156, 1863, 39648, 39896, 2423, 28820, 10943, 9673, 2407, 11622, 11536, 23758, 31439, 18863, 3215, 1211, 23758, 31439, 2423, 28820, 10943, 13672, 1829, 1975, 1829, 3224, 13672, 1829, 4724, 1829, 7435, 30241, 3714, 1829, 11622, 7649, 23758, 12174, 12610, 9673, 34268, 11622, 37977, 6156, 4587, 6027, 14407, 14739, 9673, 1829, 11622, 7649, 31439, 18863, 3215, 1211, 5296, 33456, 16247, 25957, 6027, 43242, 16095, 5551, 3615, 2288, 46958, 4724, 2304, 3615, 1863, 7578, 31767, 5172, 9307, 37495, 22653, 16070, 10721, 3615, 2288, 46958, 7251, 14851, 5016, 26895, 4032, 11622, 1863, 11296], "avg_logprob": -0.07812499753699816, "compression_ratio": 2.151219512195122, 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new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..b3e676eb9838aa95188374827a8c39961f7d1ddd
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عن", "probability": 0.99072265625}, {"start": 2291.25, "end": 2291.91, "word": " أسباب", "probability": 0.9666341145833334}, {"start": 2291.91, "end": 2292.31, "word": " عذاب", "probability": 0.9827473958333334}, {"start": 2292.31, "end": 2292.77, "word": " القبر", "probability": 0.99609375}, {"start": 2292.77, "end": 2293.77, "word": " ثم", "probability": 0.96240234375}, {"start": 2293.77, "end": 2295.57, "word": " الطاعات", "probability": 0.8634440104166666}, {"start": 2295.57, "end": 2296.71, "word": " المنجية", "probability": 0.9873046875}, {"start": 2296.71, "end": 2297.59, "word": " من", "probability": 0.990234375}, {"start": 2297.59, "end": 2298.05, "word": " عذاب", "probability": 0.9866536458333334}, {"start": 2298.05, "end": 2298.51, "word": " القبر", "probability": 0.98876953125}, {"start": 2298.51, "end": 2299.37, "word": " بمشيئة", "probability": 0.9557291666666666}, {"start": 2299.37, "end": 2299.59, "word": " الله", "probability": 0.95556640625}, {"start": 2299.59, "end": 2300.03, "word": " تبارك", "probability": 0.908447265625}, {"start": 2300.03, "end": 2300.57, "word": " وتعالى", "probability": 0.9168701171875}, {"start": 2300.57, "end": 2301.31, "word": " أقول", "probability": 0.82861328125}, {"start": 2301.31, "end": 2301.73, "word": " قولي", "probability": 0.9466145833333334}, {"start": 2301.73, "end": 2301.95, "word": " هذا", "probability": 0.97802734375}, {"start": 2301.95, "end": 2302.55, "word": " وأستغفر", "probability": 0.90009765625}, {"start": 2302.55, "end": 2302.73, "word": " الله", "probability": 0.94091796875}, {"start": 2302.73, "end": 2302.89, "word": " لي", "probability": 0.8876953125}, {"start": 2302.89, "end": 2303.35, "word": " ولكم", "probability": 0.9469401041666666}], "temperature": 1.0}], "language": "ar", "language_probability": 1.0, "duration": 2303.9768125, "duration_after_vad": 2237.692499999993}
\ No newline at end of file
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/b8t2yrdOBIs_postprocess.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/b8t2yrdOBIs_postprocess.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..58b7d9162c1a62a60fa25bdd71b284b29534be72
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/b8t2yrdOBIs_postprocess.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1408 @@
+1
+00:00:20,790 --> 00:00:24,590
+أعوذ بالله السميع العلي من الشيطان الرجيم بسم الله
+
+2
+00:00:24,590 --> 00:00:29,530
+الرحمن الرحيم الحمد لله رب العالمين وأصلي وأسلم
+
+3
+00:00:29,530 --> 00:00:33,450
+على رسول الله الأمين محمد بن عبد الله الصادق
+
+4
+00:00:33,450 --> 00:00:38,110
+الأمين صلى الله عليه وعلى آله وصحبي وسلم أجمعين
+
+5
+00:00:38,110 --> 00:00:42,250
+وبعد بعد أن انتهينا من الحديث عن الجنة والنار
+
+6
+00:00:42,950 --> 00:00:48,530
+وأوصافهما وما في الجنة من ألوان النعيم وما في
+
+7
+00:00:48,530 --> 00:00:53,030
+النار من ألوان العذاب نتكلم بمشيئة الله تبارك
+
+8
+00:00:53,030 --> 00:00:59,710
+وتعالى عن خلود أهل الجنة وأهل النار أولا قبل أن
+
+9
+00:00:59,710 --> 00:01:05,770
+نتحدث عن الخلود سنتحدث عن الجنة والنار أن هما
+
+10
+00:01:05,770 --> 00:01:12,120
+موجودتانفقد اتفق أهل السنة والجماعة على أن الجنة
+
+11
+00:01:12,120 --> 00:01:18,140
+والنار مخلوقتان موجودتان الآن لا يشك في ذلك أحد من
+
+12
+00:01:18,140 --> 00:01:23,000
+أهل السنة هذا لكثرة الآيات والأحاديث النبوية
+
+13
+00:01:23,000 --> 00:01:28,820
+الدالة على ذلك فالقرآن الكريم وسنة النبي صلى الله
+
+14
+00:01:28,820 --> 00:01:37,130
+عليه وسلم تدخر بما يدله على ثبوتوجود الجنة والنار
+
+15
+00:01:37,130 --> 00:01:42,450
+الآن فهما موجودتان من الآيات القرأنية التي تدل على
+
+16
+00:01:42,450 --> 00:01:47,070
+ذلك قول الله تبارك وتعالى وسارعوا إلى مغفرة من
+
+17
+00:01:47,070 --> 00:01:53,130
+ربكم وجنة عرضها السماوات والأرض أعدت للمتقين فكلمة
+
+18
+00:01:53,130 --> 00:01:59,210
+أعدتيدل على أنها موجودة قوله تعالى سابقوا إلى
+
+19
+00:01:59,210 --> 00:02:05,170
+مغفرة من ربكم وجنة عرضها كعرض السماء والأرض وعدت
+
+20
+00:02:05,170 --> 00:02:11,270
+للذين آمنوا بالله ورسله وعدت بمعنى هيئت فهي إذا
+
+21
+00:02:11,270 --> 00:02:17,040
+مخلوقة موجودة موجودة الآنأيضًا قول الله تبارك
+
+22
+00:02:17,040 --> 00:02:22,460
+وتعالى و لقد رأاه نزلة أخرى عند سدرة المنتهى الله
+
+23
+00:02:22,460 --> 00:02:27,880
+عز وجل يقول عندها جنة المأوى فهل يُعقل أن يقول
+
+24
+00:02:27,880 --> 00:02:31,920
+الله تبارك وتعالى عندها جنة المأوى و لا يوجد جنة
+
+25
+00:02:31,920 --> 00:02:37,860
+مأوى لم تخلق بعد؟ هذا لا يُعقل لكان كلام الله
+
+26
+00:02:37,860 --> 00:02:44,260
+عبثًا حاشاه سبحانه وتعالى فكلامه حقوقد قال الله
+
+27
+00:02:44,260 --> 00:02:51,260
+عندها جنة المأوى، إذا فجنة المأوى موجودة، الجنان
+
+28
+00:02:51,260 --> 00:02:58,120
+موجودة، وقوله عن النار فإن لم تفعلوا ولم تفعلوا
+
+29
+00:02:58,120 --> 00:03:02,080
+فاتقوا النار التي وقودها الناس والحجارة، وعدت
+
+30
+00:03:02,080 --> 00:03:08,300
+للكافرينأيضًا كلمة أعدت يفهم منها أنها موجودة،
+
+31
+00:03:08,300 --> 00:03:13,180
+أنها مخلوقة الآن موجودة، وقوله تعالى أيضًا واتقوا
+
+32
+00:03:13,180 --> 00:03:17,580
+النار التي أعدت للكافرين. فهذه الآيات تدل الدلالة
+
+33
+00:03:17,580 --> 00:03:22,560
+قاطعة، هذا من كلال ربنا تبارك وتعالىالذي لا يتيه
+
+34
+00:03:22,560 --> 00:03:27,200
+الباطل من بين يديه ومن خلفه تنزيله من حكيم من حميد
+
+35
+00:03:27,200 --> 00:03:31,520
+قول الله تبارك وتعالى قوله حق سبحانه وتعالى ومن
+
+36
+00:03:31,520 --> 00:03:37,520
+أصدق من الله قيل ومن أصدق من الله حديثة فهذا يدلل
+
+37
+00:03:37,520 --> 00:03:42,540
+دلالة قاطعة عندنا نحن أهل السنة والجماعة أن الجنة
+
+38
+00:03:42,540 --> 00:03:47,600
+والنار موجودة الآن بدليل هذه الآيات الكريمة
+
+39
+00:03:47,600 --> 00:03:53,010
+القرآنيةفمعنى قول الله تبارك وتعالى أعدّت أي هُيأت
+
+40
+00:03:53,010 --> 00:03:58,130
+فهو دليل على أن هما موجودتان الآن أما من السنة
+
+41
+00:03:58,130 --> 00:04:03,770
+فالحديث كثيرة كما ذكرنا الحديث متظافرة، متواترة،
+
+42
+00:04:03,770 --> 00:04:10,050
+متكاثرة، متظاهرة كثيرة تدلل أيضًا على هذا المعنى
+
+43
+00:04:10,050 --> 00:04:16,280
+على أن الجنة والنار موجودتان ففي صحيح البخاريومسلم
+
+44
+00:04:16,280 --> 00:04:21,840
+عند البخاري وعنده مسلم واللفظ لمسلم عن أنس رضي
+
+45
+00:04:21,840 --> 00:04:25,920
+الله عنه في قصة الإسراء والمهراج يقول النبي انطلق
+
+46
+00:04:25,920 --> 00:04:31,640
+بيه جبريل حتى أتى صدرة المنتهى فغشيها ألوان لا
+
+47
+00:04:31,640 --> 00:04:40,920
+أدري ماهي قال اسمعيه ثم دخلت الجنة فهي
+
+48
+00:04:40,920 --> 00:04:48,240
+جنابذ أي قبابفإذا هي جناب ذي اللؤلؤ وإذا ترابها
+
+49
+00:04:48,240 --> 00:04:52,780
+المسك فهل يقل أن يقول النبي صلى الله عليه و سلم ثم
+
+50
+00:04:52,780 --> 00:04:58,780
+دخلت الجنة ولا يوجد جنة؟ هذا يدل على أن الجنة
+
+51
+00:04:58,780 --> 00:05:07,360
+موجودة مخلوقة وأيضا عند البخاري ومسلم عليهم رحمة
+
+52
+00:05:07,360 --> 00:05:12,640
+اللهمن حديث عبد الله بن عمر رضي الله عنهما أن رسول
+
+53
+00:05:12,640 --> 00:05:18,280
+الله صلى الله عليه وسلم قال إن أحدكم إذا مات عرض
+
+54
+00:05:18,280 --> 00:05:22,500
+عليه مقعده بالغداد والعشي إن كان من أهل الجنة فمن
+
+55
+00:05:22,500 --> 00:05:26,300
+أهل الجنة وإن كان من أهل النار فمن أهل النار فهل
+
+56
+00:05:26,300 --> 00:05:31,980
+يعقل أن يعرض مقعد الواحد مننا عليه من الجنة أو من
+
+57
+00:05:31,980 --> 00:05:37,910
+النار والعياذ باللهوالجنة والنار غير موجودة هذا لا
+
+58
+00:05:37,910 --> 00:05:42,350
+يُعقل فالنبي صلى الله عليه وسلم لا ينطق عن الهوى
+
+59
+00:05:42,350 --> 00:05:48,250
+وهو صادق صلى الله عليه وسلم في ما يقول وأيضا
+
+60
+00:05:48,250 --> 00:05:53,550
+الحديث الثالث ينادي مناد من السماء أن صدق عبدي بعد
+
+61
+00:05:53,550 --> 00:05:58,630
+أن يُسأل الأسئلة الثلاثة من الملائكة ما ربك ما
+
+62
+00:05:58,630 --> 00:06:03,460
+دينك ما الرجل الذي بُعث فيكمينادي مناد من السماء
+
+63
+00:06:03,460 --> 00:06:08,620
+أن صدق عبدي فأفرشوه من الجنة وافتحوا له بابا إلى
+
+64
+00:06:08,620 --> 00:06:16,300
+الجنة فهل يفتح له باب إلى الجنة ويفرش من فرش الجنة
+
+65
+00:06:16,300 --> 00:06:22,840
+والجنة غير موجودة هذا لا يقل الحديث
+
+66
+00:06:22,840 --> 00:06:27,100
+الرابع في صحيح مسلم في صحيح البكاري عن عبدالله ابن
+
+67
+00:06:27,100 --> 00:06:32,640
+عباس رضي الله عنهماقال إن خسفت الشمس على عهد رسول
+
+68
+00:06:32,640 --> 00:06:39,640
+الله فذكر الحديث عبد الله بن عباس وفيه قول النبي
+
+69
+00:06:39,640 --> 00:06:45,380
+صلى الله عليه وسلم إني أريت الجنة يعني الله عز وجل
+
+70
+00:06:45,380 --> 00:06:51,720
+مكنني من رؤية الجنة وتناولت عنقودا ولو أصبته
+
+71
+00:06:51,720 --> 00:06:58,580
+لأكلتم منه ما بقيت الدنياورأيت النار فلم أرى منظرا
+
+72
+00:06:58,580 --> 00:07:04,500
+كاليوم قط أفضع، أفضع منها يعني، هل يقول أن النبي
+
+73
+00:07:04,500 --> 00:07:10,920
+صلى الله عليه وسلم يذكر أنه أري الجنة وأري النار،
+
+74
+00:07:10,920 --> 00:07:18,920
+رأى هذه ورأى تلك، وتناول من الجنة عنقوداهل يُعقل
+
+75
+00:07:18,920 --> 00:07:23,500
+أن النبي يقول أريت الجنة والجنة غير موجودة؟ أريت
+
+76
+00:07:23,500 --> 00:07:28,200
+النار والنار غير موجودة؟ فهذا لا يُعقل لكان قوله
+
+77
+00:07:28,200 --> 00:07:31,820
+عبث صلى الله عليه وسلم حاشاه عليه الصلاة والسلام
+
+78
+00:07:31,820 --> 00:07:36,720
+أن يقول عبثا فهو كما قال ربنا تبارك وتعالى وما
+
+79
+00:07:36,720 --> 00:07:42,610
+ينطق عن الهوى إن هو إلا وحي يوحىفهذا يدل على أن
+
+80
+00:07:42,610 --> 00:07:47,530
+الجنة والنار موجودتان أيضًا في صحيح مسلم قال صلى
+
+81
+00:07:47,530 --> 00:07:52,070
+الله عليه وسلم والذي نفسي بيده لو رأيتم ما رأيت
+
+82
+00:07:52,070 --> 00:07:57,250
+لضحكتم قليلا وبكيتم كثيرا قال وما رأيت يا رسول
+
+83
+00:07:57,250 --> 00:08:03,290
+الله قال رأيت الجنة والنار حديث صريح فصيح واضح جلي
+
+84
+00:08:03,290 --> 00:08:09,830
+يدل على أن الجنة والنار موجودتان رأاهما النبي صلى
+
+85
+00:08:09,830 --> 00:08:15,650
+الله عليه وسلمبل في سنن الترمذي عن أبي هريرة الله
+
+86
+00:08:15,650 --> 00:08:19,510
+تبارك وتعالى يروي لنا النبي هذا الحديث يذكر لنا
+
+87
+00:08:19,510 --> 00:08:24,230
+هذا الحديث لما خلق الله الجنة والنار أرسل جبريل
+
+88
+00:08:24,230 --> 00:08:31,130
+إلى الجنة فقال انظر إليها وإلى ما أعددت لأهلها
+
+89
+00:08:31,130 --> 00:08:36,010
+فيها يا جبريل اذهب إلى الجنة وانظر إلى ماذا أعددت
+
+90
+00:08:36,010 --> 00:08:41,080
+لأهلها فيهاقال فجاءها ذهب إليها جبريل عليه السلام
+
+91
+00:08:41,080 --> 00:08:46,560
+و رضى إليها و إلى ما أعد الله لأهلها فيها قال فرجع
+
+92
+00:08:46,560 --> 00:08:53,960
+إليه فقال فو عزتك لا يسمع بها أحد إلا دخلها من شدة
+
+93
+00:08:53,960 --> 00:08:59,540
+ما فيها من كثرة ما فيها من ألوان النعيم فكل من
+
+94
+00:08:59,540 --> 00:09:05,780
+يسمع بها بالتأكيد سيحرص على دخولها قال فرجع إليها
+
+95
+00:09:09,410 --> 00:09:14,170
+فأمر الله عز وجل بها فحُفّت بالمكاره فقال ارجع
+
+96
+00:09:14,170 --> 00:09:18,270
+اليها فانظر إلى ما أعددت لأهلها فيها قال فرجع
+
+97
+00:09:18,270 --> 00:09:24,450
+اليها فإذا هي قد حُفّت بالمكاره يعني الوصول اليها
+
+98
+00:09:24,450 --> 00:09:29,850
+ليس بالطريق السهل ليس بالأمر الهيّن فالجنة عروس
+
+99
+00:09:29,850 --> 00:09:34,430
+ومهرها قهر النفوس لابد من الالتزام والعمل ومجاهدة
+
+100
+00:09:34,430 --> 00:09:40,750
+النفس ومقاومة الشيطانفرجع اليه جبريل إلى رب العزة
+
+101
+00:09:40,750 --> 00:09:46,570
+تبارك وتعالى فقال وعزتك لقد خفت أن لا يدخلها أحد
+
+102
+00:09:46,570 --> 00:09:53,910
+فالطريق اليها ليس بالأمر السهل قال اذهب إلى النار
+
+103
+00:09:53,910 --> 00:10:01,770
+فانظر اليها وإلى ما أعددت لأهلها فيها فإذا هي يركب
+
+104
+00:10:01,770 --> 00:10:09,510
+بعضها بعضاوالنار كما تعلمون دركات فرجع اليه بعد أن
+
+105
+00:10:09,510 --> 00:10:13,990
+رأاه جبريل عليه السلام فقال وعزتك لا يسمع بها أحد
+
+106
+00:10:13,990 --> 00:10:21,910
+فيدخلها ما حدا هيسمع بالنار ويدخل أو يكون يعني ايه
+
+107
+00:10:21,910 --> 00:10:27,610
+مقاله اليها لأنه سيفرق منها فراره من الأسد سيحرص
+
+108
+00:10:27,610 --> 00:10:31,650
+على أن لا يدخلها سيجتنب المعاصي سيجتنب الطريق
+
+109
+00:10:31,650 --> 00:10:39,390
+الموصل اليهافأمر الله عز وجل فحفت بالشهوات ثم قال
+
+110
+00:10:39,390 --> 00:10:47,610
+لجبريل يا جبريل ارجع اليها فرجع اليها فقال وعزتك
+
+111
+00:10:47,610 --> 00:10:54,350
+لقد خشيت أن لا ينجو منها أحد إلا داخلها حفت
+
+112
+00:10:54,350 --> 00:11:01,940
+بالشهواتحفة النار بالشهوات وحفة الجنة بالمكاري
+
+113
+00:11:01,940 --> 00:11:07,020
+الشاهد في هذا الحديث أن الله عز وجل يأمر جبريل أن
+
+114
+00:11:07,020 --> 00:11:11,040
+يدخل الجنة هل يعقل أن الله عز وجل يأمر جبريل في
+
+115
+00:11:11,040 --> 00:11:14,180
+هذا الحديث الذي يخبر به الصادق صلى الله عليه وسلم
+
+116
+00:11:14,180 --> 00:11:19,520
+يدخل الجنة أو يدخل النار وهم غير موجودة؟ فهذا لا
+
+117
+00:11:19,520 --> 00:11:24,400
+يعقل البت هذي الحديثغيظ من فيض. الحديث كثيرة في
+
+118
+00:11:24,400 --> 00:11:31,980
+ذلك. فالبخاري رحمه الله بوب في كتابه قال باب ما
+
+119
+00:11:31,980 --> 00:11:37,980
+جاء في صفة الجنة وأنهامخلوقة، انها مخلوقة يعني
+
+120
+00:11:37,980 --> 00:11:44,040
+موجودة الآن، فهذه الأحاديث الكثيرة والآيات التي
+
+121
+00:11:44,040 --> 00:11:48,160
+سبقتها تدلل على أن الجنة والنار موجودتان،
+
+122
+00:11:48,160 --> 00:11:53,240
+مخلوقتان، فما على العبد إلا أن يشمر ويجتهد في طاعة
+
+123
+00:11:53,240 --> 00:11:59,260
+ربه تبارك وتعالى وأن يكفعن المعاصي والذنوب حتى
+
+124
+00:11:59,260 --> 00:12:04,840
+يدخله الله تبارك وتعالى الجنة ويجتنب طريق النار
+
+125
+00:12:04,840 --> 00:12:09,020
+والعياذ بالله وما فيها من ألوان العذاب الآن نأتي
+
+126
+00:12:09,020 --> 00:12:15,000
+إلى طالما أن الجنة والنار موجودتان أيات را أهلها
+
+127
+00:12:15,000 --> 00:12:23,310
+خالدون فيها خلود أهل الجنة وأهل النارأولاً معنى
+
+128
+00:12:23,310 --> 00:12:29,410
+الخلد في الجنة البقاء والدوام هذا لغة أما اصطلاحا
+
+129
+00:12:29,410 --> 00:12:35,630
+فهو طول الإقامة بالقرار طول الإقامة طول الإقامة
+
+130
+00:12:35,630 --> 00:12:42,630
+فهي تقال لمن بقى دائما للمبقى
+
+131
+00:12:42,630 --> 00:12:52,730
+دائما على الدوام خالدا فيها خالدا فيهافالجنة هذا
+
+132
+00:12:52,730 --> 00:12:58,970
+ما نعتقده يقينا الجنة دار الخلود الأبدي للمؤمنين
+
+133
+00:12:58,970 --> 00:13:06,350
+فهي النعيم المقيم الذي لا يزول فلا انقطاع لنعيمها
+
+134
+00:13:06,350 --> 00:13:12,230
+ولا موت لأهلها وكما علمنا أن الجنة مخلوقة الآن
+
+135
+00:13:12,230 --> 00:13:18,770
+موجودة والله تبارك وتعالى أراد لها البقاءتنعيما
+
+136
+00:13:18,770 --> 00:13:25,130
+للمؤمنين فلو كان النعيم مقطوعا لو كان النعيم نعيم
+
+137
+00:13:25,130 --> 00:13:31,310
+الجنة مقطوعا لأجل المحدد ثم ينتهي فلكان هذا فيه
+
+138
+00:13:31,310 --> 00:13:35,970
+تنغيص للمؤمنين لكن من كمال نعيم الله تبارك وتعالى
+
+139
+00:13:35,970 --> 00:13:39,990
+على المؤمنين أن الله تبارك وتعالى أخبرنا أن هذا
+
+140
+00:13:39,990 --> 00:13:45,770
+النعيم دائم مستمر باقي وكذلك النار فالنار كما
+
+141
+00:13:45,770 --> 00:13:53,260
+علمنا هي مخلوقةوعذابها دائم ومستمر وباقي وخالد
+
+142
+00:13:53,260 --> 00:14:02,300
+فالجنة والنار موجودة مخلوقتان لا تبيدان ولا تفنيان
+
+143
+00:14:02,300 --> 00:14:07,640
+كما ذكر العلماء قال الدكتور عمر سليمان الأشقر
+
+144
+00:14:07,640 --> 00:14:13,800
+النار خالدة لا تفنى ولا تبيد وكما قال من قبله
+
+145
+00:14:13,800 --> 00:14:19,570
+الطحاو في عقيدتهأبو جعفر الطحاوي رحمه الله قال
+
+146
+00:14:19,570 --> 00:14:26,330
+والجنة والنار مخلوقتان لا تفنيان ولا تبيدان فهم
+
+147
+00:14:26,330 --> 00:14:33,190
+إذا خالدتان ونقل ابن حزم اتفاق الأمة على ذلكفقد
+
+148
+00:14:33,190 --> 00:14:37,510
+جاء في كتابه الفصل في الملل والاهواء والنحل قوله
+
+149
+00:14:37,510 --> 00:14:43,710
+اتفقت فرق الأمة كلها على أن لا فناء للجنة ولا
+
+150
+00:14:43,710 --> 00:14:48,710
+لنعيمها ولا للنار ولا لعذابها إلا الجهم ابن صفوان
+
+151
+00:14:48,710 --> 00:14:54,910
+خالف إجماع الأمة فقال بفناء النار أو بفناء الجنة
+
+152
+00:14:55,370 --> 00:15:00,530
+فالنصوص الدالة على خلود الجنة والنار كثيرة، هذا هو
+
+153
+00:15:00,530 --> 00:15:04,870
+مذهب أهل السنة والجماعة، وهذا هو ما نعتقد به، أن
+
+154
+00:15:04,870 --> 00:15:12,350
+الجنة والنار موجودة، لا تفنيان ولا تبيدان، فالنار
+
+155
+00:15:12,350 --> 00:15:17,890
+خالدة لا تبيد، وأهلها فيها خالدون، والجنة خالدة لا
+
+156
+00:15:17,890 --> 00:15:24,120
+تبيد، وأهلها فيها خالدون،هذا هو معتقد أهل السنة
+
+157
+00:15:24,120 --> 00:15:28,680
+والجماعة في هذا الموضوع والدليل على الخلود، الأيات
+
+158
+00:15:28,680 --> 00:15:34,760
+كثيرة، فمنها في أصحاب النار مثلا قال تعالى أولئك
+
+159
+00:15:34,760 --> 00:15:40,160
+أصحاب النار هم فيها خالدون، هذا عن أهل النار، أما
+
+160
+00:15:40,160 --> 00:15:44,660
+عن المؤمنين قال تعالى والذين آمنوا وعملوا الصالحات
+
+161
+00:15:44,660 --> 00:15:51,470
+أولئك أصحاب الجنة هم فيها خالدونهم فيها خالدون.
+
+162
+00:15:51,710 --> 00:15:56,230
+فبيّن الله تبارك وتعالى ان الخلود في النار والخلود
+
+163
+00:15:56,230 --> 00:16:02,370
+في الجنة انما هو بحسب الكفر والإيمان. فالكفار
+
+164
+00:16:02,370 --> 00:16:07,630
+خالدون في النار والمؤمنون خالدون في الجنة. نعيم
+
+165
+00:16:07,630 --> 00:16:13,200
+هؤلاء الدائموعذاب هؤلاء دائم. ايضا منها قول الله
+
+166
+00:16:13,200 --> 00:16:18,280
+تبارك وتعالى وللكافرين عذاب مهين. قوله تعالى ومن
+
+167
+00:16:18,280 --> 00:16:23,660
+يرتد منكم عن دينه فيموت وهو كافر فأولئك حبطت
+
+168
+00:16:23,660 --> 00:16:28,900
+أعمالهم في الدنيا والاخرة. وأولئك أصحاب نارهم فيها
+
+169
+00:16:28,900 --> 00:16:34,660
+خالدون. الى آخره الآيات والحديثالآيات كثيرة،
+
+170
+00:16:34,660 --> 00:16:40,100
+الآيات متظاهرة، متوافرة تدل على هذا المعنى تدل على
+
+171
+00:16:40,100 --> 00:16:45,320
+أن أهل الجنة مخلدون فيها، خالدون فيها وأن أهل
+
+172
+00:16:45,320 --> 00:16:49,680
+النار خالدون فيها تعالوا لنرى جملة أيضا من
+
+173
+00:16:49,680 --> 00:16:56,560
+الأحاديث النبوية التي تدل على هذا المعنى في صحيح
+
+174
+00:16:56,560 --> 00:17:02,820
+البخاري عن ابن عمررضي الله عنهم عن النبي صلى الله
+
+175
+00:17:02,820 --> 00:17:07,680
+عليه وسلم قال يدخل أهل الجنة الجنة وأهل النار
+
+176
+00:17:07,680 --> 00:17:15,040
+النار ثم يقوم مؤذن بينهم ينادي يا أهل النار لا موت
+
+177
+00:17:15,040 --> 00:17:22,260
+ويا أهل الجنة لا موت خلود وروي عن أبي هريرةقال صلى
+
+178
+00:17:22,260 --> 00:17:26,760
+الله عليه وسلم يقول لأهل الجنة يا أهل الجنة لا موت
+
+179
+00:17:26,760 --> 00:17:36,030
+و لأهل النار يا أهل النار خلود لا موت و هكذاهكذا
+
+180
+00:17:36,030 --> 00:17:42,030
+يبقى هؤلاء مخلدين في جنتهم وهؤلاء مخلدون في النار.
+
+181
+00:17:43,110 --> 00:17:48,950
+فكما جاء في حديث ابن عمر عند البخاري رحمه الله قال
+
+182
+00:17:48,950 --> 00:17:52,690
+صلى الله عليه وسلم إذا أصار أهل الجنة إلى الجنة
+
+183
+00:17:53,100 --> 00:17:57,980
+وأهل النار إلى النار، جيء بالموت حتى يجعل بين
+
+184
+00:17:57,980 --> 00:18:02,900
+الجنة والنار، ثم يذبح، ثم ينادي منادي، يا أهل
+
+185
+00:18:02,900 --> 00:18:08,620
+الجنة، لا موت، يا أهل النار، لا موت، فيزداد أهل
+
+186
+00:18:08,620 --> 00:18:15,120
+الجنة فرحا إلى فرحهم، فإذا كان النعيم دائما يصر
+
+187
+00:18:15,120 --> 00:18:20,890
+الإنسان إليهويزداد أهل النار حزنا إلى حزنهم، يزداد
+
+188
+00:18:20,890 --> 00:18:26,990
+غيظا وحزنا وعذابا في ما هم فيه ولعل هذا الحديث
+
+189
+00:18:26,990 --> 00:18:31,330
+الذي يرويه الإمام مسلم من أوضح الأحاديث قال صلى
+
+190
+00:18:31,330 --> 00:18:35,850
+الله عليه وسلم يجاء بالموت يوم القيامة كأنه كبش
+
+191
+00:18:35,850 --> 00:18:42,630
+أملح فيوقف بين الجنة والنار فيقول يا أهل الجنة هل
+
+192
+00:18:42,630 --> 00:18:50,600
+تعرفون هذا؟فيشرائبون وينظرون ويقولون نعم الموت هذا
+
+193
+00:18:50,600 --> 00:18:56,060
+هو الموت قال ويقال يا أهل النار هل تعرفون هذا؟ قال
+
+194
+00:18:56,060 --> 00:18:59,820
+فيشرائبون وينظرون يشرائبون بمعنى يتطاولون هكذا
+
+195
+00:18:59,820 --> 00:19:04,680
+ينظرون يدقيقون النظر ويقولون نعم هذا الموت قال
+
+196
+00:19:04,680 --> 00:19:11,970
+فيؤمروا به فيذبح انتهى الموت خلاص الموت ماتقال ثم
+
+197
+00:19:11,970 --> 00:19:16,850
+قال يا أهل الجنة خلود فلا موت ويا أهل النار خلود
+
+198
+00:19:16,850 --> 00:19:22,710
+فلا موت ثم قرأ صلى الله عليه وسلم وأنذرهم يوم
+
+199
+00:19:22,710 --> 00:19:27,590
+الحصرة إذا قضي الأمر وهم في غفلة وهم لا يؤمنون
+
+200
+00:19:30,060 --> 00:19:36,940
+هكذا يزداد أهل الجنة سرورا ويزداد أهل النار حسرة
+
+201
+00:19:36,940 --> 00:19:44,100
+وغما أخرج الترمذي عن أبي سعيد الخدري يرفعه إلى
+
+202
+00:19:44,100 --> 00:19:48,700
+النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم قال إذا كان يوم القيامة
+
+203
+00:19:48,700 --> 00:19:54,340
+أتي بالموت كالكبش الأملح فيوقف بين الجنة والنار
+
+204
+00:19:54,340 --> 00:20:00,610
+فيذبح وهم ينظرونوهم ينظرون، خلاص انتهى الموت، مافي
+
+205
+00:20:00,610 --> 00:20:06,370
+موت بعد الآن، فلو أن أحدا، النبي يخبرنا، فلو أن
+
+206
+00:20:06,370 --> 00:20:10,630
+أحدا مات فرحا، لمات أهل الجنة
+
+207
+00:20:13,480 --> 00:20:18,660
+من شدة فرحهم، لو بين فيموتوا، لو فيه موت لماتوا من
+
+208
+00:20:18,660 --> 00:20:26,480
+شدة فرحهم، ولو أن أحد مات حزنا قهر يعني، لمات أهل
+
+209
+00:20:26,480 --> 00:20:32,040
+النار. نسأل الله تبارك وتعالى أن يشملنا برحمته وأن
+
+210
+00:20:32,040 --> 00:20:37,090
+نكون من أهل الجنة.بقى عندنا هذا العنوان الهم جدا
+
+211
+00:20:37,090 --> 00:20:42,490
+وهو الخلود في النار للكافرين لا لأهل المعاصي وهذا
+
+212
+00:20:42,490 --> 00:20:48,970
+أمر لعليه تحدثت فيه مرات ومرات بيانته تحت ما يسمى
+
+213
+00:20:48,970 --> 00:20:54,250
+دائما وسميه حكم مرتكب الكبير مرتكب الكبير وقد
+
+214
+00:20:54,250 --> 00:20:57,630
+تحدثت عنه في موضوع الشفاعة فنقول هنا وبالله
+
+215
+00:20:57,630 --> 00:21:03,520
+التوفيق الخلود في النار الخلود في الناريعني يطلق
+
+216
+00:21:03,520 --> 00:21:07,800
+في القرآن الكريم على دخول الكفار النار وإقامتهم
+
+217
+00:21:07,800 --> 00:21:14,400
+الأبدية فيها فالخلود الخلود في النار يكون للكافرين
+
+218
+00:21:14,400 --> 00:21:20,260
+لا لأهل المعاصي يكون في النار لا لأهل المعاصي أما
+
+219
+00:21:20,260 --> 00:21:26,280
+إن جاءت بعض النصوص إن جاءت بعض النصوص يذكر فيها
+
+220
+00:21:26,280 --> 00:21:33,050
+الخلودلأهل المعاصي فهذا خلود ليس دائم، إنما على
+
+221
+00:21:33,050 --> 00:21:38,850
+قدر معاصيهم ينالون العقوبة التي يشاءها الله تبارك
+
+222
+00:21:38,850 --> 00:21:44,740
+وتعالى، ثم يخرجون من النار، لا يمكثون فيها أبدالا
+
+223
+00:21:44,740 --> 00:21:49,520
+يمكثون فيها أبدًا، فأصحاب المعاصي خلودهم ليس كخلود
+
+224
+00:21:49,520 --> 00:21:55,240
+الكفار، ولكن خلودهم كلهم بحسب معصيته، ثم ينقطع
+
+225
+00:21:55,240 --> 00:22:00,420
+ويخرج إلى الخلود في الجنة، ما كان موحدًا من أهل
+
+226
+00:22:00,420 --> 00:22:05,100
+الإسلام طالما أنه موحد، طالما أنه جاء بالتوحيد
+
+227
+00:22:05,100 --> 00:22:12,110
+بإفراد الله تبارك وتعالى، طالما أنه جاءمفردا لله
+
+228
+00:22:12,110 --> 00:22:17,750
+تبارك وتعالى، لا يعتقد معه شريك البتة، هذه فضيلة
+
+229
+00:22:17,750 --> 00:22:22,250
+التوحيد، هذه فضيلة التوحيد، حتى لو أنه دخل النار
+
+230
+00:22:23,270 --> 00:22:28,050
+حتى لو أنه دخل النار ومكث فيها ما شاء الله له أن
+
+231
+00:22:28,050 --> 00:22:34,650
+يمكث ثم يخرج بعد ذلك يخرجوا إما بشفاعة النبي أو
+
+232
+00:22:34,650 --> 00:22:39,750
+بشفاعة النبيين أو بشفاعة الملائكة أو بشفاعة شهيد
+
+233
+00:22:39,750 --> 00:22:46,140
+أو بشفاعة مؤمنأو بشفاعة
+
+234
+00:22:46,140 --> 00:22:50,880
+أرحم الراحمين سبحانه وتعالى أو بشفاعة أرحم
+
+235
+00:22:50,880 --> 00:22:55,080
+الراحمين تبارك وتعالى يخرج من النار لعموم قوله
+
+236
+00:22:55,080 --> 00:23:01,780
+تعالى إن الله لا يغفر أن يشرك به ويغفر ما دون ذلك
+
+237
+00:23:01,780 --> 00:23:03,220
+لمن يشاء ثم
+
+238
+00:23:06,210 --> 00:23:10,610
+لأحاديث الشفاعة ومنها حديث النبي صلى الله عليه
+
+239
+00:23:10,610 --> 00:23:16,870
+وسلم شفاعتي لأهل الكبائر من أمتي فهذا الحديث صريح
+
+240
+00:23:16,870 --> 00:23:23,490
+صحيح واضح يدلل على ما أردنا بصورة قوية وواضحة
+
+241
+00:23:23,490 --> 00:23:29,510
+وجالية أن المؤمنين إن ماتوا على معاصيهم من غير
+
+242
+00:23:29,510 --> 00:23:36,310
+توبة في الدنيا تكون المعاصي من بعض الموحدينفإن طاب
+
+243
+00:23:36,310 --> 00:23:39,690
+من طاب طاب الله عليه، هذا في الدنيا، لكن إن مات من
+
+244
+00:23:39,690 --> 00:23:44,090
+غير توبة، معتقد أهل السنة والجماعة أنه في ما شئت
+
+245
+00:23:44,090 --> 00:23:48,690
+الله، إن شاء عفى عنه، وإن شاء عذبه، وإن عذبه، لا
+
+246
+00:23:48,690 --> 00:23:53,910
+يخلده في النار، لا يخلده في النار لسببين، أولا
+
+247
+00:23:53,910 --> 00:23:59,290
+لعموم قوله تعالى إن الله لا يغفر أن يشرك به ويغفر
+
+248
+00:23:59,290 --> 00:24:02,770
+ما دون ذلك لمن يشاء، والأمر الثاني
+
+249
+00:24:05,330 --> 00:24:11,790
+لعموم الحديث الشفاعة ومن هذا الحديث شفاعتي لأهل
+
+250
+00:24:11,790 --> 00:24:17,790
+الكبائر من أمتي شفاعتي بشكل خاص لأهل الكبائر من
+
+251
+00:24:17,790 --> 00:24:21,450
+أمتي أهل الكبائر سيكونوا هؤلاء من المؤمنين في
+
+252
+00:24:21,450 --> 00:24:25,790
+الجنة ام في النار يكونون في النار فيشفع فيهم النبي
+
+253
+00:24:25,790 --> 00:24:30,690
+فيخرجونبمعنى أنهم لا يخلدون إذا دخلوا النار، لا
+
+254
+00:24:30,690 --> 00:24:36,030
+يخلدون فيها، هذا هو معتقد أهل السنة والجماعة في
+
+255
+00:24:36,030 --> 00:24:42,570
+المرتكب الكبير. فإذا نستفيد من هذا الأمر أن الخلود
+
+256
+00:24:42,570 --> 00:24:49,650
+في النار للكفار، لا لأهل المعاصي، للكفار، لا لأهل
+
+257
+00:24:49,650 --> 00:24:55,560
+المعاصي، أهل المعاصيالموحدون الذين دخلوا النار،
+
+258
+00:24:55,560 --> 00:24:59,500
+الذين لم يشاء الله عز وجل أن يعفو عنهم، لم يغفر
+
+259
+00:24:59,500 --> 00:25:04,160
+لهم، لم يتجاوز عن سيئاتهم، لم يسامحهم، أراد الله
+
+260
+00:25:04,160 --> 00:25:10,200
+عز وجل أن يعذبهم، يدخلهم النار مدة لا يعلمها إلا
+
+261
+00:25:10,200 --> 00:25:15,700
+الله تبارك وتعالى، ثم يخرجون منها، لا يخلدون في
+
+262
+00:25:15,700 --> 00:25:22,530
+الناركما قلت لهذه السببين أولا لعموم قوله تعالى إن
+
+263
+00:25:22,530 --> 00:25:27,670
+الله لا يغفر أيشرك به ويغفر ما دون ذلك لمن يشاء
+
+264
+00:25:27,670 --> 00:25:31,830
+ولأحديث الشفاعة السبب الثاني لأحديث الشفاعة
+
+265
+00:25:31,830 --> 00:25:38,150
+السابقة ومنها حديث النبي شفاعتي لأهل الكبائر من
+
+266
+00:25:38,150 --> 00:25:44,860
+أمتي أعتقد أن الأمر في غاية الوضوحبقى عندنا أثر
+
+267
+00:25:44,860 --> 00:25:50,360
+الإيمان باليوم الآخر في حياة المسلم فبالتأكيد الذي
+
+268
+00:25:50,360 --> 00:25:55,740
+يؤمن باليوم الآخر ركنا من أركان الإسلام ينعكس هذا
+
+269
+00:25:55,740 --> 00:26:01,980
+الإيمان و هذا التصديق على حياته بصورة جالية و على
+
+270
+00:26:01,980 --> 00:26:08,160
+أفعاله ينعكس آثارا من هذه الأثار أن الإيمان باليوم
+
+271
+00:26:08,160 --> 00:26:13,860
+الآخر من علامات الصدق والتقوىمن علامات الصدق
+
+272
+00:26:13,860 --> 00:26:19,060
+والتقوى كما ذكر ربنا تبارك وتعالى، ليس البرة أن
+
+273
+00:26:19,060 --> 00:26:24,640
+تولوا وجوهكم قبل المشرق والمغرب، ولكن البرة من آمن
+
+274
+00:26:24,640 --> 00:26:30,870
+بالله واليوم الآخرفمن آمن بالله و باليوم الآخر هو
+
+275
+00:26:30,870 --> 00:26:37,370
+يعني من الأبرار، من الذي فعل فعلًا من أفعال البر،
+
+276
+00:26:37,370 --> 00:26:43,050
+ثم من الأثار أيضًا الزهد في الدنيا، الزهد في
+
+277
+00:26:43,050 --> 00:26:48,280
+الدنيا، فالإنسان الذييعتقد باليوم الآخر يعرف ويعلم
+
+278
+00:26:48,280 --> 00:26:52,000
+أن هذه الدنيا فانية وأن مقاله إلى الله تبارك
+
+279
+00:26:52,000 --> 00:26:56,760
+وتعالى، إما إلى جنة وإما إلى نار، فنجده يزهد في
+
+280
+00:26:56,760 --> 00:27:02,990
+هذه الدنيا، ليس معنى ذلك أن يترك العملوان يستكين
+
+281
+00:27:02,990 --> 00:27:08,030
+وان يتواكل فكما قال النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم اعمل
+
+282
+00:27:08,030 --> 00:27:13,850
+لدنياك كأنك تعيش أبدا واعمل لآخرتك كأنك تموت غدا
+
+283
+00:27:13,850 --> 00:27:18,150
+فنجد هذا الذي يعتقد باليوم الآخرزاهدا في الأمور
+
+284
+00:27:18,150 --> 00:27:22,730
+الدنيا ليس منكبّن عليها أو حريصا عليها ثالثا
+
+285
+00:27:22,730 --> 00:27:28,470
+الرغبة في فعل الطاعة والحرص عليها رجاء ثواب ذلك
+
+286
+00:27:28,470 --> 00:27:32,840
+اليوم فحتى ينال الثواب من الله تبارك وتعالىنجده
+
+287
+00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:39,380
+حريصا على الطاعات على فعل يعني فضلا عن الفرائض
+
+288
+00:27:39,380 --> 00:27:47,380
+والواجبات أيضا يقبل على النوافل والصداقات والتقرب
+
+289
+00:27:47,380 --> 00:27:52,540
+إلى الله تبارك وتعالى بصالح الأعمال رابعا الرهب من
+
+290
+00:27:52,540 --> 00:27:58,240
+فعل المعصية فكما أنه يبتعدهو يبتعد .. يرغب في فعل
+
+291
+00:27:58,240 --> 00:28:03,220
+الطعام أيضًا يبتعد عن فعل المعصية خوفًا من عقاب
+
+292
+00:28:03,220 --> 00:28:07,660
+الله تبارك وتعالى في ذلك اليوم ومما يعتقد به هو
+
+293
+00:28:07,660 --> 00:28:12,800
+مما يكون للكافرين والعصاء في نار جهنم والعياذ
+
+294
+00:28:12,800 --> 00:28:14,120
+بالله أيضًا
+
+295
+00:28:16,360 --> 00:28:21,840
+من الآثار تسلية المؤمن عن ما يفوته في الدنيا، عن
+
+296
+00:28:21,840 --> 00:28:25,840
+ما يفوته في الدنيا. فالمؤمن يعلم أن هذه الدنيا هي
+
+297
+00:28:25,840 --> 00:28:32,000
+دار ابتلاء ودار فتنة ودار بلاء وبالتالي هو إن فاته
+
+298
+00:28:32,320 --> 00:28:39,040
+يعني كثير من الملذات والأطائب التي يستلذ بها عامة
+
+299
+00:28:39,040 --> 00:28:42,840
+الناس أو من من آتاهم الله تبارك وتعالى من فضله في
+
+300
+00:28:42,840 --> 00:28:47,540
+هذه الدنيا فهو سيناله هذا الأجر وسيناله هذا النعيم
+
+301
+00:28:47,540 --> 00:28:52,730
+في الآخرةفهذا الإيمان فيه تسليا للمؤمن بما ينتظره
+
+302
+00:28:52,730 --> 00:28:57,510
+من ألوان النعيم التي أعدها الله تبارك وتعالى له في
+
+303
+00:28:57,510 --> 00:29:03,550
+الدنيا وكما قال ربنا تبارك وتعالى في الحديث القدسي
+
+304
+00:29:03,550 --> 00:29:10,030
+أعددت لعبادي ما لا عين رأت ولا أذن سمعت ولا خطر
+
+305
+00:29:10,030 --> 00:29:15,330
+على قلب بشر أيضا من الآثار تربية الشعور بالمسئولية
+
+306
+00:29:16,080 --> 00:29:20,780
+تربية الشعور بالمسئولية فالمؤمن وقف عند حدود الله
+
+307
+00:29:20,780 --> 00:29:24,900
+تبارك وتعالى لأنه يعلم أنه إن عصى الله تبارك
+
+308
+00:29:24,900 --> 00:29:30,900
+وتعالى سيسأل عن هذا الفعل وقفوهم إنهم مسئولون هو
+
+309
+00:29:30,900 --> 00:29:36,140
+يعلم أنه إن فعل معصية فهناك ملائكة تسجل عليه
+
+310
+00:29:36,140 --> 00:29:42,720
+حركاته وسكناته وأفعاله وأقواله طاعاته ومعاصيهفثم
+
+311
+00:29:42,720 --> 00:29:46,860
+سيحاسب عليها أمام الله تبارك وتعالى فنجده يشعر
+
+312
+00:29:46,860 --> 00:29:52,240
+بالمسؤولية يعرف كيف يتصرف و أين يذهب و أي عمل
+
+313
+00:29:52,240 --> 00:29:58,220
+يمتهن و أي قول يقول ينتقي ألفاظه انتقاء و هكذا في
+
+314
+00:29:58,220 --> 00:30:06,460
+كل سائر حياته أيضا من الأثار ضبط جميع الدوافع
+
+315
+00:30:06,460 --> 00:30:12,760
+والغرائز وفق نظام الإسلام فالذي يؤمن باليوم الآخر
+
+316
+00:30:12,760 --> 00:30:18,860
+وقاف عند حدود الله تبارك وتعالى شعاره شعاره سمعنا
+
+317
+00:30:18,860 --> 00:30:24,520
+وأطعنا غفرانك ربنا وإليك المصير فلا يتبع غرائزه
+
+318
+00:30:24,520 --> 00:30:30,440
+وشهواتهإلا وفق الإسلام، فإن أراد مثلا يعني إفراغ
+
+319
+00:30:30,440 --> 00:30:36,540
+شهوته فعليه بالزواج الشرعي، لا ينظر إلى المحرمات،
+
+320
+00:30:36,540 --> 00:30:40,240
+لا ينظر إلى الأخريات أو المحصنات، لا يقظف
+
+321
+00:30:40,240 --> 00:30:44,120
+المحصنات، لا يطمع في فعل الفاحشة البتة، لا ينظر
+
+322
+00:30:44,120 --> 00:30:47,680
+إلى الصور العارية، لا يلهث ورا المغريات، إنما
+
+323
+00:30:47,680 --> 00:30:53,540
+دائما هويعني يكبح جماعة نفسه ويلتزم بتاعة الله
+
+324
+00:30:53,540 --> 00:31:00,180
+تبارك وتعالى وفق نظام الإسلام أيضا من هذه الآثار
+
+325
+00:31:00,180 --> 00:31:05,560
+إيثار الآخر على الدنيا والصبر على الشدائد فمصائب
+
+326
+00:31:05,560 --> 00:31:10,580
+الدنيا هذه وشدائدها ومرارة العيش وشظافه كل ذلك
+
+327
+00:31:10,580 --> 00:31:15,120
+يعلم المؤمن الذي يؤمن باليوم الآخر أن هذا ابتلاء
+
+328
+00:31:15,120 --> 00:31:21,370
+من الله تبارك وتعالى ولذلك نجده يصبريصبر رجاء ثواب
+
+329
+00:31:21,370 --> 00:31:25,530
+الله تبارك وتعالى، لا يشكو الخالق للمخلوق، لا يشكو
+
+330
+00:31:25,530 --> 00:31:29,270
+الخالق، لا يتضجر، لا يتأثث، لا يشكو الخالق
+
+331
+00:31:29,270 --> 00:31:33,070
+للآخرين، لا يشكو الخالق، إنما يشكو لله تبارك
+
+332
+00:31:33,070 --> 00:31:36,510
+وتعالى، ويعلم أن ذلك منه ابتلاء من الله تبارك
+
+333
+00:31:36,510 --> 00:31:40,170
+وتعالى، ابتلاء اختبار، الله يختبره في إيمانه، في
+
+334
+00:31:40,170 --> 00:31:47,940
+صدقه، فأيثبت أم يتجر؟و يشكو الخالق إلى المخلوقين
+
+335
+00:31:47,940 --> 00:31:54,540
+نجد الذي يؤمن باليوم الآخر يعني يؤثر الحياة الآخر
+
+336
+00:31:54,540 --> 00:31:58,460
+على الدنيا و يصبر على هذه الشدائد لأ يصبر لأ بدون
+
+337
+00:31:58,460 --> 00:32:04,540
+تأفف ثم من هذه الآثار الحظر من الدنيا و الزهد فيها
+
+338
+00:32:04,540 --> 00:32:09,580
+و الصبر على شدائدها و طمأنية القلب و سلامته و هذه
+
+339
+00:32:09,580 --> 00:32:14,570
+ثمرة حقيقة مبارك يعني تورث الإنسان القناعةطولة
+
+340
+00:32:14,570 --> 00:32:19,970
+الإنسان القناعة وسلامة القلب من الحرص والحسد والغل
+
+341
+00:32:19,970 --> 00:32:26,210
+والشحناء، فالمؤمن يعيش بتفكيره في الآخرة، هو صحيح
+
+342
+00:32:26,210 --> 00:32:30,890
+أنه يعيش في الدنيا، لكنه يعيش للآخرة، كل حياته، ما
+
+343
+00:32:30,890 --> 00:32:35,940
+الدنيا عنده إلا ممر لهذه الآخرةما الدنيا عنده إلا
+
+344
+00:32:35,940 --> 00:32:41,120
+ممر للآخرة لأنه يعتقد أن هذه الدنيا كشجرة كرجل
+
+345
+00:32:41,120 --> 00:32:46,920
+استظلة بظل الشجرة فسرعان ما يتركها سرعان ما يترك
+
+346
+00:32:46,920 --> 00:32:55,760
+سرعان ما ينتهي هذا الظل فهي سريعة تمر سريعة هذه
+
+347
+00:32:55,760 --> 00:33:02,580
+يعني بعض الآثار التييعني تنعكس على حياة المسلم
+
+348
+00:33:02,580 --> 00:33:07,340
+المؤمن باليوم الآخر الركن الخامس من أركان الإيمان
+
+349
+00:33:07,340 --> 00:33:13,140
+نسأل الله تبارك وتعالى أن ينفعنا بما سمعنا وأن
+
+350
+00:33:13,140 --> 00:33:17,400
+يجعلنا من عباده الصالحين الذين يستمعون القول
+
+351
+00:33:17,400 --> 00:33:21,620
+فيتبعون أحسنه أقول قول هذا وأستغفر الله لي ولكم
+
+352
+00:33:21,620 --> 00:33:24,000
+والسلام عليكم ورحمة الله وبركته
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/bG2LI4PuN_w_raw.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/bG2LI4PuN_w_raw.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..412aaaa6d4ef19892b4402f02a4bbc507b905e8e
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/bG2LI4PuN_w_raw.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1296 @@
+1
+00:00:20,910 --> 00:00:23,890
+أعوذ بالله السميع العلي من الشيطان الرجيم بسم الله
+
+2
+00:00:23,890 --> 00:00:28,650
+الرحمن الرحيم الحمد لله رب العالمين وأصلي وأصلم
+
+3
+00:00:28,650 --> 00:00:32,470
+على رسول الله الأمين محمد بن عبد الله الصادق
+
+4
+00:00:32,470 --> 00:00:39,510
+الأمين صلى الله عليه وعلى آله وصحبه وأجمعين وبعدفي
+
+5
+00:00:39,510 --> 00:00:43,710
+هذا اللقاء بمشيئة الله تبارك وتعالى سنبدأ الحديث
+
+6
+00:00:43,710 --> 00:00:47,810
+عن الرقم السادس من أركان الإيمان وهو رقم الإيمان
+
+7
+00:00:47,810 --> 00:00:53,670
+بالقضاء والقدر سنعرف بالقضاء والقدر لغة واستلاحة
+
+8
+00:00:53,670 --> 00:00:58,210
+والفرق بينهما ثم القضاء والقدر في القرآن الكريم ثم
+
+9
+00:00:58,210 --> 00:01:03,410
+معنى الإيمان بالقضاء والقدر هذا ما سنتحدث عنه ان
+
+10
+00:01:03,410 --> 00:01:09,180
+شاء الله في هذا اللقاء في هذه المباحث الثلاثةنقول
+
+11
+00:01:09,180 --> 00:01:13,780
+وبالله التوفيق الإيمان بالقضاء والقدر هو أحد أركان
+
+12
+00:01:13,780 --> 00:01:18,500
+الإيمان بالتأكيد لا يقل أهمية عن باقي الأركان كما
+
+13
+00:01:18,500 --> 00:01:22,920
+ذكرنا سابقا أن المؤمن عليه أن يأتي بأركان الإيمان
+
+14
+00:01:22,920 --> 00:01:29,400
+الست حزمة واحدة فمن تهون في واحد منها من تهون في
+
+15
+00:01:29,400 --> 00:01:34,240
+أي ركن من أركانها ولو في جزء من أي ركن من هذه
+
+16
+00:01:34,240 --> 00:01:39,350
+الأركانيعتبر كافر والعياذ بالله كمن أنكر مثلا ملكا
+
+17
+00:01:39,350 --> 00:01:44,210
+من الملائكة أو أنكر نبيا من الأنبياء فيجب الإيمان
+
+18
+00:01:44,210 --> 00:01:49,270
+بالقضاء والقدر ركن من ألكان الإيمان كباقي الألكان
+
+19
+00:01:49,270 --> 00:01:55,050
+عموما هذا ركن ذُكر في القرآن الكريم نص الله تعالى
+
+20
+00:01:55,050 --> 00:02:00,980
+عليه في آيات كثيرة منها قول الله تعالىإن كل شيء
+
+21
+00:02:00,980 --> 00:02:05,880
+خلقناه بقدر ومنها قول الله تبارك وتعالى وكان أمر
+
+22
+00:02:05,880 --> 00:02:10,520
+الله قدرا قدرا مقدورا وأيضا في السنة النبوية في
+
+23
+00:02:10,520 --> 00:02:15,340
+حديث جبريل عليه السلاملما سأله عن الإسلام ثم سأله
+
+24
+00:02:15,340 --> 00:02:19,060
+عن الإيمان ذكر النبي في الإجابة على سؤال ما
+
+25
+00:02:19,060 --> 00:02:25,240
+الإيمان؟ قال الإيمان أن تؤمن بالله وملائكته وكتبه
+
+26
+00:02:25,240 --> 00:02:30,420
+ورسله واليوم الآخر والقضاء والقدر فالإيمان بالقضاء
+
+27
+00:02:30,420 --> 00:02:36,450
+والقدر ركن من أركان الإيمان منصوص عليهفي كتاب ربنا
+
+28
+00:02:36,450 --> 00:02:40,990
+تبارك وتعالى وعلى لسان نبينا صلى الله عليه وسلم
+
+29
+00:02:40,990 --> 00:02:46,150
+والإيمان بالقضاء والقدر حقيقة داخل في توحيد
+
+30
+00:02:46,150 --> 00:02:51,110
+الربوبية داخل في ربوبية الله تبارك وتعالى فتوحيد
+
+31
+00:02:51,110 --> 00:02:57,130
+الربوبية هو الاعتقاد الجازم بأن الله رب كل شيء ولا
+
+32
+00:02:57,130 --> 00:03:03,190
+رب سواء أنه هو المتصرف في هذا الكونأنه لا يكون في
+
+33
+00:03:03,190 --> 00:03:06,650
+هذا الكون إلا ما شاء الله تبارك وتعالى وهذا
+
+34
+00:03:06,650 --> 00:03:11,150
+بالتمام والكمال هو معنى الإيمان بالقضاء والقدر أن
+
+35
+00:03:11,150 --> 00:03:15,850
+يؤمن العبد أنه ما من شيء يكون في هذا الكون إلا
+
+36
+00:03:15,850 --> 00:03:22,930
+بقضاء الله وقدره ما من حياة أو موت أو سكون أو حركة
+
+37
+00:03:22,930 --> 00:03:28,130
+أو ذهاب أو إياب أو قول أو فعلأو طاعة أو معصية أو
+
+38
+00:03:28,130 --> 00:03:33,130
+توحيد أو كفر أو قيام أو جلوس أو غير ذلك من الأشياء
+
+39
+00:03:33,130 --> 00:03:39,230
+إلا بتقدير الله تبارك وتعالى وقضائه هذا إذن معنى
+
+40
+00:03:39,230 --> 00:03:42,970
+الإيمان بالقضاء والقدر فالإيمان بالقضاء والقدر
+
+41
+00:03:42,970 --> 00:03:49,410
+يدخل في الإيمان بربوبية الله عز وجل الشاملة تعالوا
+
+42
+00:03:49,410 --> 00:03:58,410
+لنعرف القضاء والقدر لغة بادئ بادئأود أن ألفت
+
+43
+00:03:58,410 --> 00:04:07,730
+الانتباه إلى أن كلمة القضاء والقدر لغة متداخلة
+
+44
+00:04:07,730 --> 00:04:13,290
+يعني هناك تداخل في معنى القضاء والقدر من حيث اللغة
+
+45
+00:04:13,290 --> 00:04:20,950
+من حيث اللغة هناك تداخل وهذا سنلحظه وسنصلط عليه
+
+46
+00:04:20,950 --> 00:04:25,960
+الضوء إن شاء الله في ثناية شرحنا لهذا الموضوعسأبين
+
+47
+00:04:25,960 --> 00:04:32,160
+أن القضاء يأتي لغة بمعنى القدر والقدر أيضا يأتي
+
+48
+00:04:32,160 --> 00:04:36,620
+بمعنى القضاء هذا الأمر يترتب عليه ما سيأتي أن بعض
+
+49
+00:04:36,620 --> 00:04:42,280
+العلماء في التعريف الإصطلاحي يعرف القضاء بمعنى
+
+50
+00:04:42,280 --> 00:04:48,480
+القدر والقدر بمعنى القضاء بمعنى يعرفهم على أنهم
+
+51
+00:04:48,480 --> 00:04:55,210
+بمعنى واحد كما مر معنى سابقا في عقيدة واحدالإيمان
+
+52
+00:04:55,210 --> 00:04:59,590
+والإسلام أو النبي والرسول في هذا المساق النبي
+
+53
+00:04:59,590 --> 00:05:03,290
+والرسول فهناك فريق من العلماء يعتقد بأن النبي
+
+54
+00:05:03,290 --> 00:05:07,470
+والرسول لفظان مترادفان لا فرق بينهما الإيمان
+
+55
+00:05:07,470 --> 00:05:11,570
+والإسلام لفظان مترادفان لا فرق بينهما هناك من
+
+56
+00:05:11,570 --> 00:05:14,750
+العلماء من يعتقد ذلك أيضا هنا في القضاء والقدر
+
+57
+00:05:14,750 --> 00:05:19,050
+هناك من العلماء من يعتقد أن القضاء بمعنى القدر
+
+58
+00:05:19,050 --> 00:05:24,540
+والقدر بمعنى القضاء لماذابسبب التداخل في الأصل
+
+59
+00:05:24,540 --> 00:05:31,320
+اللغوي في الأصل اللغوي فنقول القضاء في اللغة كما
+
+60
+00:05:31,320 --> 00:05:35,320
+جاء في لسان العرب عند إبن منظور القضاء بمعنى الحكم
+
+61
+00:05:35,320 --> 00:05:44,420
+بمعنى الحكم وأصله القطع والفصل يقال قضى يقضي قضان
+
+62
+00:05:44,420 --> 00:05:50,190
+قضى القاضي على المتهم مثلا بمعنى حكمةبمعنى حكمة
+
+63
+00:05:50,190 --> 00:05:57,110
+فهو قاض إذا حكم وفصل ويأتي أيضًا قضاء الشيء إحكامه
+
+64
+00:05:57,110 --> 00:06:04,330
+وانضاؤه والانتهاء منه الفراغ منه كما في قوله تعالى
+
+65
+00:06:04,330 --> 00:06:12,990
+فقضاهن سبع سماوات أي أحكم خلقهن فرغ من خلقهن انتهى
+
+66
+00:06:12,990 --> 00:06:17,870
+من خلقهن فالقضاء بمعنى الحكم ولذلك سمى القاضي
+
+67
+00:06:17,870 --> 00:06:25,940
+قاضيالأنه يحكم .. لأنه يحكم .. لأنه يحكم الأحكام
+
+68
+00:06:25,940 --> 00:06:33,220
+وينفذها والمنية .. الموت يعني .. سمية قضاء لأنه
+
+69
+00:06:33,220 --> 00:06:41,340
+حكم وأمر الله ينفذ في ابن آدم وغيره من الخلق إذا
+
+70
+00:06:41,340 --> 00:06:48,790
+القضاء بمعنى الحكم أو فصل الأمرفصل الأمر قولا كان
+
+71
+00:06:48,790 --> 00:06:54,730
+أو فعلا فصل الأمر أحيانا يكون بالأمر أحيانا يكون
+
+72
+00:06:54,730 --> 00:07:00,170
+بالقول كقضاء القاضي حكم القاضي وأحيانا يكون بالفعل
+
+73
+00:07:00,170 --> 00:07:05,830
+بالزامه أن يمكث في السجن عشرين عاما مثلا وكل واحد
+
+74
+00:07:05,830 --> 00:07:10,330
+منهم على وجهين هذا القضاء هذا الحكم هذا الأمر على
+
+75
+00:07:10,330 --> 00:07:19,610
+وجهين إلهيوبشري فالله عز وجل يحكم ويأمر سبحانه
+
+76
+00:07:19,610 --> 00:07:26,190
+وتعالى بالقول وبالفعل و .. و .. يكون القضاء أيضا
+
+77
+00:07:26,190 --> 00:07:33,490
+بشريا فالقاضي من الحكام او القاضي .. اه القاضي من
+
+78
+00:07:33,490 --> 00:07:40,370
+القضاء أيضا يقضي قولا وفعلا يصدر الحكم وينفذ هذا
+
+79
+00:07:40,370 --> 00:07:46,300
+الحكمفي المتهم على سبيل المثال فالقضاء هو الحكم
+
+80
+00:07:46,300 --> 00:07:52,600
+وأصله قضاء لأنه من قضاين الجامع أقضية جامع قضاء
+
+81
+00:07:52,600 --> 00:07:59,100
+أقضية أو قضية القضية مثله والجامع قضاية وقضى أي
+
+82
+00:07:59,100 --> 00:08:06,300
+حكمه ومنه قوله تعالى وقضى ربك أي ايه وحكم ربك وأمر
+
+83
+00:08:06,300 --> 00:08:14,900
+ربك هذا معنى القضاء في اللغةأما القدر في اللغة
+
+84
+00:08:14,900 --> 00:08:23,820
+وهنا ستلاحظي التذاخل القدر القدر والقدر يعني
+
+85
+00:08:23,820 --> 00:08:29,340
+بتسكين الدال أو تحريكها بالفتح كما في لسان العرب
+
+86
+00:08:29,340 --> 00:08:36,480
+لاحظي هو القضاء والحكم فإذا القدر هو القضاء والحكم
+
+87
+00:08:37,250 --> 00:08:41,910
+وهو ما يقدره الله عز وجل من القضاء ويحكم به من
+
+88
+00:08:41,910 --> 00:08:48,750
+الأمور أي الحكم والقدر كالقدر يعني هما لغتان يمكن
+
+89
+00:08:48,750 --> 00:08:58,630
+أن نقول قضاء وقدر أو قضاء وقدر كلاهما ايه كلاهما
+
+90
+00:08:58,630 --> 00:09:04,910
+صحي وكلاهما يجمع على اقدار سواء قدر او قدر يجمع
+
+91
+00:09:04,910 --> 00:09:17,020
+على ايه على اقدارفالقدر هو لحظة التداخل نحن نعرف
+
+92
+00:09:17,020 --> 00:09:25,360
+القدر هنا فالقدر هو ماذا؟ القضاء الموفق القضاء
+
+93
+00:09:25,360 --> 00:09:33,260
+الموفق القدر القدر عندما أقول قدر الله عز وجل أن
+
+94
+00:09:33,260 --> 00:09:40,910
+أقابل فلانفي السوق في زحمة السوق أو في موسم الحج
+
+95
+00:09:40,910 --> 00:09:48,050
+قدر الله هذا هو القضاء الموفق لو كان غير موفق
+
+96
+00:09:48,050 --> 00:09:53,710
+بمعنى موافق لما كتبه الله عز وجل من الأزل لو لم
+
+97
+00:09:53,710 --> 00:10:01,040
+يكن الله عز وجل شاء ذلك لما رأيته ولا شاهدتهفالقدر
+
+98
+00:10:01,040 --> 00:10:06,440
+هو القضاء الموفق يقول أقدر الإله كذا تقديرا إذا
+
+99
+00:10:06,440 --> 00:10:13,000
+وافق الشيء الشيء فأنا سأقابله في مكان علمه الله
+
+100
+00:10:13,000 --> 00:10:21,910
+تبارك وتعالى هو يلبس ثيابا محددةبألوان محددة يرافق
+
+101
+00:10:21,910 --> 00:10:29,330
+أناس محددين يحمل في يده مثلا شيئا محددا يعلمه الله
+
+102
+00:10:29,330 --> 00:10:37,030
+تبارك وتعالى فالقدر والقضاء هو القدر القدر والقدر
+
+103
+00:10:37,030 --> 00:10:42,750
+هو القضاء والحكم وهو ما يقدره الله عز وجل من
+
+104
+00:10:42,750 --> 00:10:49,020
+القضاء ويحكم به من الأمور إذا رأيت معاياالتذاخل في
+
+105
+00:10:49,020 --> 00:10:54,060
+الأصل اللغوي بين القضاء والقدر هذا ينعكس في تعريف
+
+106
+00:10:54,060 --> 00:10:59,360
+العلماء للقضاء والقدر اسطلاحا فقد اختلفت عبارات
+
+107
+00:10:59,360 --> 00:11:05,260
+العلماء في تعريف القضاء والقدر فمنهم من جعل
+
+108
+00:11:05,260 --> 00:11:12,120
+الإثنين شيئا واحدا ومنهم من عرف القضاء تعريفا
+
+109
+00:11:12,120 --> 00:11:19,800
+مغايرا للقدر سنبدأ ان شاء اللهبذكر من عرفهم على
+
+110
+00:11:19,800 --> 00:11:28,520
+أنهم ايه معنا واحدا من اعتبرهم لفظا واحدا القضاء
+
+111
+00:11:28,520 --> 00:11:37,980
+والقدر قال القضاء والقدر معنى هكذا هو النظام
+
+112
+00:11:37,980 --> 00:11:45,500
+المحكم الذي وضعه الله لهذا الوجود والقوانين العامة
+
+113
+00:11:46,370 --> 00:11:54,470
+والسنن التي ربط بها الأسباب بمسبباتها فإذا عند هذا
+
+114
+00:11:54,470 --> 00:12:02,290
+الفريق القضاء والقدر معناه النظام المحكم الذي يحكم
+
+115
+00:12:02,290 --> 00:12:07,770
+الله تبارك وتعالى به هذا الوجود ويسير على أساسه
+
+116
+00:12:07,770 --> 00:12:11,030
+هذا النظام الكوني
+
+117
+00:12:13,490 --> 00:12:20,950
+ومن ذلك أنه ربط الأسباب بمسبباتها فلا يكون شبع إلا
+
+118
+00:12:20,950 --> 00:12:27,090
+بالأكل لا يكون ريء إلا بالشرب إذا وجدت النار وجد
+
+119
+00:12:27,090 --> 00:12:31,250
+الإحراق لا
+
+120
+00:12:31,250 --> 00:12:37,410
+يكون دخول للجنة إلا بالعمل بحسب الشريعة الإسلامية
+
+121
+00:12:37,410 --> 00:12:44,350
+لا ينال الإنسان رضا الله تعالى إلا إذاأطاعه والتزم
+
+122
+00:12:44,350 --> 00:12:50,030
+أوامره هذا هو القانون المحكم الذي يحكم الله تبارك
+
+123
+00:12:50,030 --> 00:12:56,850
+وتعالى به هذا الوجود هذا الفريق يعرف القضاء والقدر
+
+124
+00:12:56,850 --> 00:13:02,510
+على أنهم إيه مصطلح واحد أو تعريف آخر لهذا الفريق
+
+125
+00:13:02,510 --> 00:13:07,430
+أيضا من العلماء قال هو إرادة الله إيجاد الأشياء
+
+126
+00:13:07,430 --> 00:13:15,430
+إرادة اللهإيجاد الأشياء على وجه مخصوص على وجه
+
+127
+00:13:15,430 --> 00:13:20,270
+مخصوص إرادة الله قبل أن يوجدها قبل أن يوجدها الله
+
+128
+00:13:20,270 --> 00:13:25,170
+عز و جل هذا من الأزل قبل أن يوجدها أراد الله شاء
+
+129
+00:13:25,170 --> 00:13:31,010
+الله عز و جل أن يوجد الأشياء على وجه مخصوص يعني
+
+130
+00:13:31,010 --> 00:13:39,250
+بأعمار معينةبصفات معينة بألوان معينة بأجال معينة
+
+131
+00:13:39,250 --> 00:13:46,070
+بأرزاق معينة ثم إيجادها فعلا على وفق المراد بحسب
+
+132
+00:13:46,070 --> 00:13:51,750
+ما أراد أزلا سبحانه وتعالى يعني على سبيل المثال
+
+133
+00:13:51,750 --> 00:13:56,370
+كأن نقول أراد الله تبارك وتعالى أن يخلق آدم عليه
+
+134
+00:13:56,370 --> 00:14:03,250
+السلامأن يخلق آدم أن يخلق البشر فقلق أبوهم آدم هذا
+
+135
+00:14:03,250 --> 00:14:06,590
+في مشيئة الله قبل أن يخلق آدم أراد الله عز وجل أن
+
+136
+00:14:06,590 --> 00:14:16,370
+يخلق أبو البشر على شكل معين رأس أذنين عينين لحية
+
+137
+00:14:16,370 --> 00:14:26,450
+يدين ساقين هكذا هو الإنسان على وجه المخصوصخلقه من
+
+138
+00:14:26,450 --> 00:14:30,630
+طين نفق فيه من روحه في مشيئته سبحانه وتعالى أن
+
+139
+00:14:30,630 --> 00:14:37,070
+يأمر الملائكة فتسجد له، هذا في مشيئة الله، فتسجد
+
+140
+00:14:37,070 --> 00:14:45,130
+الملائكة ويأبى إبليس السجودثم يوجد الله عز وجل هذه
+
+141
+00:14:45,130 --> 00:14:48,570
+الأشياء ومنها على سبيل المثال المثال الذي نتحدث
+
+142
+00:14:48,570 --> 00:14:54,050
+عنه هو آدم فيخلق آدم تماما بحسب الإرادة القديمة
+
+143
+00:14:54,050 --> 00:14:59,090
+إرادة الله تبارك وتعالى قال السفرين وهو عالم من
+
+144
+00:14:59,090 --> 00:15:05,210
+علماء العقيدة الفلسطينيين من سفرين قضاء نابلوس أو
+
+145
+00:15:05,210 --> 00:15:10,530
+الله أعلم يعني هي نابلوس الله أعلم فيما اعتقد أنه
+
+146
+00:15:10,530 --> 00:15:15,870
+يعود إلى نابلسقال القضاء والقدر ما سبق به العلم
+
+147
+00:15:15,870 --> 00:15:19,090
+قضاء
+
+148
+00:15:19,090 --> 00:15:25,830
+والقدر هو ما سبق به العلم علم الله عز وجل ما
+
+149
+00:15:25,830 --> 00:15:29,890
+سبق به العلم وجرى به القلم ما سجله الله عز وجل ما
+
+150
+00:15:29,890 --> 00:15:37,640
+أمر الله القلم بكتابته مما هو كائن إلى الأبدهذا
+
+151
+00:15:37,640 --> 00:15:42,080
+القضاء والقدر مع بعض ما سبق به العلم وجرى به القلم
+
+152
+00:15:42,080 --> 00:15:46,880
+مما هو كائن إلى الأبد وأنه عز وجل قدر مقادير
+
+153
+00:15:46,880 --> 00:15:52,080
+الخلائق مقادير الخلائق مقادير الخلائق أطوالها
+
+154
+00:15:52,080 --> 00:16:00,400
+ألوانها أقوالها أفعالها طاعاتها معاصيها أرزاقها كل
+
+155
+00:16:00,400 --> 00:16:04,720
+شيء وأنه عز وجل قدر مقادير الخلائق قبل أن يخلقها
+
+156
+00:16:04,720 --> 00:16:12,380
+وما يكونمن الأشياء قبل أن تكون في الأذل قبل أن
+
+157
+00:16:12,380 --> 00:16:20,000
+تكون في الأذل وعلم سبحانه وتعالى أنها ستقع أنها
+
+158
+00:16:20,000 --> 00:16:26,420
+ستقع في أوقات معلومة عنده تعالى على صفات مخصوصة
+
+159
+00:16:26,420 --> 00:16:35,380
+فهي تقع على حسب ما قدرها بحسب العلم الأذلي بحسب
+
+160
+00:16:35,380 --> 00:16:42,540
+المشيئة القديمةفهذا يعني أن يعني علم الله تبارك
+
+161
+00:16:42,540 --> 00:16:49,260
+وتعالى متعلق بالكائنات الله عز وجل يعلم ما سيكون
+
+162
+00:16:49,260 --> 00:16:55,380
+عليه خلقه قبل أن يكون فلا حادث لا يقع أي شيء في
+
+163
+00:16:55,380 --> 00:17:00,280
+هذا الكون لا يقع أي أمر إلا والله تبارك وتعالى
+
+164
+00:17:00,280 --> 00:17:08,460
+يعلمه إلا والله تبارك وتعالى يعلمههذا تعريف القضاء
+
+165
+00:17:08,460 --> 00:17:13,280
+والقدر عند الفريق الأول، من عرفهم على أنهم مصطلح
+
+166
+00:17:13,280 --> 00:17:20,620
+واحد أما من عرف القضاء تعريفا مغايرا للقدر فقال،
+
+167
+00:17:20,620 --> 00:17:26,960
+الآن هيعرف هذا الفريق القضاء لوحده والقدر لوحده،
+
+168
+00:17:26,960 --> 00:17:33,570
+فقال القضاء اصطلاحالحظة، سيعرف القضاء بمعنى و
+
+169
+00:17:33,570 --> 00:17:40,550
+القدر بمعنى آخر قال القضاء القضاء هو علم الله في
+
+170
+00:17:40,550 --> 00:17:47,570
+الأزل بالأشياء كلها على ما ستكون عليه في المستقبل
+
+171
+00:17:47,570 --> 00:17:52,030
+يعني كالمثال الذي ذكرناه كعلم الله تعالى الأزلي
+
+172
+00:17:52,030 --> 00:17:57,990
+بخلق الإنسان في الأرضالله عز وجل قبل أن يخلق آدم
+
+173
+00:17:57,990 --> 00:18:04,250
+كان يعلم سبحانه وتعالى أنه سيخلق آدم علم
+
+174
+00:18:04,250 --> 00:18:09,470
+الله بما ستكون عليه الأشياء في المستقبل وقولنا أن
+
+175
+00:18:09,470 --> 00:18:14,170
+الله عز وجل يتصف بالعلم ومن أسمائه العليم والعلام
+
+176
+00:18:14,170 --> 00:18:20,870
+سبحانه وتعالى عالم الغيب والشهادة من أسمائه العليم
+
+177
+00:18:20,870 --> 00:18:26,420
+والعقل يوجب لله تبارك وتعالى هذه الصفةفهي صفة
+
+178
+00:18:26,420 --> 00:18:34,180
+نقلية عقلية العقل يوجب أن يكون الخالق عالمًا
+
+179
+00:18:34,180 --> 00:18:40,980
+سبحانه وتعالى فإذا القضاء هو علم الله في الأزل
+
+180
+00:18:40,980 --> 00:18:45,620
+بالأشياء كلها على ما ستكون عليه في المستقبل كيف
+
+181
+00:18:45,620 --> 00:18:55,020
+ستكون على أي مواصفاتبأي أشكال أقدار ألوان مقادير
+
+182
+00:18:55,020 --> 00:19:01,360
+كلها يعلمها سبحانه وتعالى ثم هذا علم الله عز وجل
+
+183
+00:19:01,360 --> 00:19:06,800
+كعلم الله مثلا هذا مثال نموذج علم الله بخلقه لأدم
+
+184
+00:19:06,800 --> 00:19:12,540
+عليه السلام أما القضاء فهو إيجاد الله الأشياء على
+
+185
+00:19:12,540 --> 00:19:17,180
+وجه الأرض طبق ما سبق في قضائه سبحانه يعني الله عز
+
+186
+00:19:17,180 --> 00:19:22,660
+وجليخلق الأشياء ليس عشوائيا هكذا تعالى الله عن ذلك
+
+187
+00:19:22,660 --> 00:19:28,560
+علوا كبيرة انما يخلقها بحسب علمه السابق بحسب ما
+
+188
+00:19:28,560 --> 00:19:36,880
+قضى وعلم سبحانه وتعالى فكأن القدر هو تنفيذ القدر
+
+189
+00:19:36,880 --> 00:19:42,300
+القدر هو ايه؟ هو تنفيذ القدر فالمتأمل في التعريفات
+
+190
+00:19:42,300 --> 00:19:48,590
+السابقة يدرك أننا هنا نتناول قضيتين أساسيتينالأولى
+
+191
+00:19:48,590 --> 00:19:57,430
+.. الأولى هي علم الله تبارك وتعالى الأزلي الذي حكم
+
+192
+00:19:57,430 --> 00:20:06,330
+فيه بوجود ما شاء أن يجده وحدد صفات المخلوقات التي
+
+193
+00:20:06,330 --> 00:20:13,730
+يريد إيجادها حدد صفات المخلوقات وقد كتب ذلك في
+
+194
+00:20:13,730 --> 00:20:22,520
+اللوح المحفوظ فالأرض مثلاوالسماء أحجامها وأبعادها
+
+195
+00:20:22,520 --> 00:20:30,320
+وطريق تكوينهما وما بينهما وما فيهما كل ذلك مدوّن
+
+196
+00:20:30,320 --> 00:20:37,060
+علمه في اللوح المحفوظ تدوينا دقيقا وأي واحد فينا
+
+197
+00:20:37,060 --> 00:20:42,680
+يصلح أن يكون مثالا لهذا الأمر يصلح أن يكون مثالا
+
+198
+00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:50,370
+لهذا الأمرفالله عز وجل علم أنه سيخلق الدكتور سعد
+
+199
+00:20:50,370 --> 00:20:56,910
+عشور مثلا سيكون من موليد 1961 ميلادي سيولد في
+
+200
+00:20:56,910 --> 00:21:04,350
+منطقة تسمى الزيتون أحد أحياء مدينة غزة سيتأخر عن
+
+201
+00:21:04,350 --> 00:21:09,350
+دراسة ابتدائية عاما في عام 1967 عندما دخل اليهود
+
+202
+00:21:09,910 --> 00:21:14,770
+غزة ثم سيلتحق بالمدرسة في العام السابع ليس كعادة
+
+203
+00:21:14,770 --> 00:21:19,070
+الأطفال في العام السادس من أعمارهم ثم سيدرس في
+
+204
+00:21:19,070 --> 00:21:24,210
+المدرسة الفلانية مدرسة الصفر الإبتدائية ثم سينتقل
+
+205
+00:21:24,210 --> 00:21:29,850
+إلى مدرسة الهشمية ثم إلى مدرسة تيافة ثم وهكذا وكان
+
+206
+00:21:29,850 --> 00:21:34,390
+ذلك أيام الاحتلال وكانت اللجان والامتحانات تأتين
+
+207
+00:21:34,390 --> 00:21:41,210
+من مصر وهكذاثم التحق بكلية الشريعة ثم أرغب في
+
+208
+00:21:41,210 --> 00:21:44,650
+التحويل إلى كلية أصول الدين كل هذه التفاصيلات
+
+209
+00:21:44,650 --> 00:21:50,570
+تنطبق عليك علم الله بما ستكون عليه الأشياء في
+
+210
+00:21:50,570 --> 00:21:56,000
+المستقبلعلم الله هذه صفة نحن نتكلم عن صفة لله
+
+211
+00:21:56,000 --> 00:22:01,060
+تبارك وتعالى فأنتي أنا هو هي أي شيء هذه الشجرة هذا
+
+212
+00:22:01,060 --> 00:22:05,660
+البناء كل كل أي شيء في هذا الكون يصبح أن يكون مثلا
+
+213
+00:22:05,660 --> 00:22:12,100
+في موضوعنا هنا أما الأمر الثاني النقطة الأولى
+
+214
+00:22:12,100 --> 00:22:16,140
+القضية الأولى تتكلم عن القضاء علم الله بما سيكون
+
+215
+00:22:16,140 --> 00:22:21,740
+ستكون عليه الأشياء في المستقبل القضية الثانيةهي
+
+216
+00:22:21,740 --> 00:22:29,440
+إيجاد ما قدر الله إيجاده، لكن كيف؟ هل بشكل مبعثر،
+
+217
+00:22:29,440 --> 00:22:35,140
+عشوائي؟ بالتأكيد لأ، إنما إيجاد ما قدره الله ما
+
+218
+00:22:35,140 --> 00:22:39,260
+قدر الله إيجاده على النحو الذي سبق علمه وجرى به
+
+219
+00:22:39,260 --> 00:22:47,440
+قلمهفهكذا هذا هو معنى القضاء والقدر فكأن القضاء هو
+
+220
+00:22:47,440 --> 00:22:52,540
+ايه؟ هو التنفيذ تنفيذ لقدر الله لقضاء الله تبارك
+
+221
+00:22:52,540 --> 00:22:59,080
+وتعالى وحكمه فينا قال ابن حجر المراد ان الله تعالى
+
+222
+00:22:59,080 --> 00:23:04,910
+علم مقادير الأشياء وازمانهاقبل إيجادها و أزمانها و
+
+223
+00:23:04,910 --> 00:23:17,370
+أطوالها و ألوانها و صفاتها و أشكالها
+
+224
+00:23:17,370 --> 00:23:23,790
+و أطوالها و ألوانها و أرزاقها و كل ما لهاقبل
+
+225
+00:23:23,790 --> 00:23:30,710
+إيجادها ثم أوجد ما سبق في علمه أنه يوجد إذا لو
+
+226
+00:23:30,710 --> 00:23:35,890
+فصلنا كلام ابن حجر المراد أن الله تعالى علم مقادير
+
+227
+00:23:35,890 --> 00:23:41,930
+الأشياء وأزمانها قبل إيجادها إلى هنا القضاء ثم
+
+228
+00:23:41,930 --> 00:23:48,870
+أوجد ما سبق في علمه أنه يوجد هذا ايه؟ هذا هو
+
+229
+00:23:48,870 --> 00:23:56,270
+القضاءفكل محدث صادر عن علمه وقدرته سبحانه وتعالى
+
+230
+00:23:56,270 --> 00:24:05,490
+إذا هذا الفريق ماذا يفعل؟ يعتبر أن لفظ القضاء
+
+231
+00:24:05,490 --> 00:24:12,330
+مغاير للفظ القدر فعرفهم على أن لكل واحد منهم معنى
+
+232
+00:24:12,330 --> 00:24:18,040
+مختلف عن الآخروالمفاجأة وسبق أن قلت لك أن هناك
+
+233
+00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:27,080
+تداخل في الأصل اللغوي قال لك وقد عكس بعضهم فجعل
+
+234
+00:24:27,080 --> 00:24:33,000
+تعريف القضاء للقدر وتعريف القدر للقضاء يعني عند
+
+235
+00:24:33,000 --> 00:24:41,040
+الفريق التالت هذا القضاء هو
+
+236
+00:24:41,040 --> 00:24:41,800
+إيجاد الله
+
+237
+00:24:44,750 --> 00:24:49,510
+هؤلاء الأشياء وفق علمه وإرادته القدر هو علم الله
+
+238
+00:24:49,510 --> 00:24:54,910
+بما ستكون عليه الأشياء في المستقبل إذا
+
+239
+00:24:54,910 --> 00:25:02,550
+هذا الفريق يعكس وحقيقة الأمر محتمل والخطب فيه يسير
+
+240
+00:25:02,550 --> 00:25:08,880
+يعني لا أحد يؤاخذ الآخرلا أحد يؤاخذ الآخر فكل منهم
+
+241
+00:25:08,880 --> 00:25:14,760
+يدل على معنى الآخر ولا يوجد دليل واضح حقيقة في
+
+242
+00:25:14,760 --> 00:25:19,980
+الكتاب والسنة يدل على التفريق بينهما وقد وقع اتفاق
+
+243
+00:25:19,980 --> 00:25:25,780
+على أن أحدهم يصح أن يطلق على الآخر بنفع نقول هذا
+
+244
+00:25:25,780 --> 00:25:32,000
+قضاء الله بنفع نقول هذا قدر الله بنفس المعنى يؤدي
+
+245
+00:25:32,000 --> 00:25:40,020
+نفس المؤدىنفس اللفظ هذا أو ذاك يؤدي إلى نفس المعنى
+
+246
+00:25:40,020 --> 00:25:45,800
+مع ملاحظة أن لفظ القدر أكثر ورودا في نصوص الكتاب
+
+247
+00:25:45,800 --> 00:25:51,240
+والسنة يعني لو أردنا أن نعمل عملية إحصاء أيهم أكثر
+
+248
+00:25:51,240 --> 00:25:56,160
+ورودا في الكتاب والسنة لفظ القضاء أم القدر لفظ
+
+249
+00:25:56,160 --> 00:26:04,860
+القدر أكثر ورودا في الكتاب والسنة طيب إذاما الفرق
+
+250
+00:26:04,860 --> 00:26:08,020
+بين القضاء والقدر؟ أو ما العلاقة بين القضاء
+
+251
+00:26:08,020 --> 00:26:16,680
+والقدر؟ ما العلاقة؟ هل هما فعلا معنيان متغيران،
+
+252
+00:26:16,680 --> 00:26:21,420
+بمعنى منفصلان عن بعضهم البعض؟ يتبين حقيقة مما سبق
+
+253
+00:26:21,420 --> 00:26:26,380
+أن القضاء والقدر أمران متلازمة، لا ينفك أحدهم عن
+
+254
+00:26:26,380 --> 00:26:30,080
+الآخر، وهذا ما أشار إليه قطابي عليه الرحمة الله
+
+255
+00:26:30,080 --> 00:26:37,530
+شارح سنا أبي دودحيث يقول بعد تعريفه لهم بعد معرف
+
+256
+00:26:37,530 --> 00:26:42,690
+القضاء والقدر يقول و جمعوا القول في هذا الباب أنهم
+
+257
+00:26:42,690 --> 00:26:50,510
+أمران لا ينفك أحدهم عن الآخر لأن أحدهم بمنزلة
+
+258
+00:26:50,510 --> 00:26:57,270
+الأساس والآخر بمنزلة البناء كهذه العمارة التي نحن
+
+259
+00:26:57,270 --> 00:27:05,930
+فيها هذا البناء له قواعد أسس وهناك طوابقوبالتاكيد
+
+260
+00:27:05,930 --> 00:27:12,170
+هناك تلازم بين الطوابق وبين الأساسات، بين القواعد
+
+261
+00:27:12,170 --> 00:27:20,770
+فمرّام الفصل بينهما من أراد أن يفصل بين القواعد
+
+262
+00:27:20,770 --> 00:27:30,430
+وبين الطوابق فقدرام هدم البناء ونقضهوكذلك الذي
+
+263
+00:27:30,430 --> 00:27:34,870
+يحاول أن يفرق بين القضاء والقدر أن يجعل كل واحد
+
+264
+00:27:34,870 --> 00:27:43,490
+ومنهما أيه في ناحية منفصل عن الآخر فهذا معناه أن
+
+265
+00:27:43,490 --> 00:27:48,810
+القضاء والقدر معنيان متلازمة والحقيقة أن أحد
+
+266
+00:27:48,810 --> 00:27:55,390
+المعاصرين وهو الشيخ علي الطنطاوي عليه الرحمة الله
+
+267
+00:27:55,390 --> 00:28:01,650
+يعني يصور هذا المعنىالعلاقة بين القضاء والقدر يقول
+
+268
+00:28:01,650 --> 00:28:09,950
+إن القضاء والقدر بمثابة المهندس والمقاول بمثابة
+
+269
+00:28:09,950 --> 00:28:16,850
+المهندس والمقاول فالمقاول .. فالمهندس عفوا المهندس
+
+270
+00:28:16,850 --> 00:28:24,930
+هو الذي يضع الخريطة والتصميم للبناء ويوزع الغرف
+
+271
+00:28:28,080 --> 00:28:37,220
+والممرات والمنافع والبلكونات وما إلى ذلك من خريطة
+
+272
+00:28:37,220 --> 00:28:48,340
+للبيت مخطط أولي ثم يقوم المقاول بتنفيذ هذا المخطط
+
+273
+00:28:48,340 --> 00:28:55,570
+فالمقاول لا يبني هكذا عشوائياأو على مزاجه إنما
+
+274
+00:28:55,570 --> 00:29:03,670
+يبني بحسب المخطط الذي وضعه المهندس فالعلاقة بينهما
+
+275
+00:29:03,670 --> 00:29:08,910
+متكاملة بين المهندس وبين المقاول ولله تبارك وتعالى
+
+276
+00:29:08,910 --> 00:29:16,350
+المثل الأعلى هناك تكامل بين قضاء الله وقدره وكما
+
+277
+00:29:16,350 --> 00:29:24,930
+أن المهندسله صلاحية التغيير كما أن المهندس له
+
+278
+00:29:24,930 --> 00:29:31,390
+صلاحية التغيير أثناء التنفيذ أثناء تنفيذ البناية
+
+279
+00:29:31,390 --> 00:29:39,330
+فقد يجد مثلا هذا الممر واسع سيستهلك
+
+280
+00:29:39,330 --> 00:29:45,970
+هذه المساحة بدون أي فائدةفيأخذ .. يجد أن من الحكمة
+
+281
+00:29:45,970 --> 00:29:52,330
+أن يأخذ منها شيئًا فيضيفه إلى البنافع مثلًا إلى
+
+282
+00:29:52,330 --> 00:30:00,550
+الحمامات أو ما إلى ذلك فيفعل ذلك يغير في أيه؟ يغير
+
+283
+00:30:00,550 --> 00:30:08,770
+في المخطط الذي وضعه سابقًا كذلك تكون فائدة الدعاء
+
+284
+00:30:08,770 --> 00:30:17,960
+فالسؤال المشهورعلى ألسنة الناس على ألسنة الناس هل
+
+285
+00:30:17,960 --> 00:30:24,680
+قضاء الله تبارك وتعالى حتمى لا يتغير ألبسة الحقيقة
+
+286
+00:30:24,680 --> 00:30:30,480
+أن قضاء الله تبارك وتعالى على أمرين أو على صلفين
+
+287
+00:30:30,480 --> 00:30:41,800
+هناك قضاء حتمى قضاء يعني لا يغيره لا الدعاء ولا
+
+288
+00:30:41,800 --> 00:30:50,830
+غيرهرفعت الأقلام وجفت الصحوف لا يغيره شيء هذا
+
+289
+00:30:50,830 --> 00:30:59,590
+القضاء لا يتغير البتة لكن هناك قضاء معلق هناك قضاء
+
+290
+00:30:59,590 --> 00:31:08,910
+معلق فيكون معلق بسبب من الأسباب مثلا الواحد مننا
+
+291
+00:31:08,910 --> 00:31:11,730
+يقع في معصية
+
+292
+00:31:14,540 --> 00:31:20,520
+فيكون ذلك مقدر بقدر الله تبارك وتعالى والله تبارك
+
+293
+00:31:20,520 --> 00:31:23,820
+وتعالى قد قدر لهذا الذي وقع في معصية أن يتوب
+
+294
+00:31:23,820 --> 00:31:28,160
+ويستغفر ويدعو الله أن يغفر له فيغفر الله تبارك
+
+295
+00:31:28,160 --> 00:31:34,800
+وتعالى له وأتبع الحسنة السيئة تمحوها وخالق الناس
+
+296
+00:31:34,800 --> 00:31:41,640
+بخلق حسن إن الحسنات يذهبنا السيئة إن الحسنات
+
+297
+00:31:41,640 --> 00:31:48,550
+يذهبنا السيئةالإنسان لا يعرف ما هو مقدر له فتزوجه
+
+298
+00:31:48,550 --> 00:31:56,290
+ولم ينجب لا يجوز له أن يستسلم ويقول أنا عقيم ليس
+
+299
+00:31:56,290 --> 00:32:02,950
+مقدر لي أن أنجب الأبناء عليه أن يعمل بالأسباب فقد
+
+300
+00:32:02,950 --> 00:32:10,130
+يكون مقدر له أن يرزق بعد العمل بالأسباب بعد العمل
+
+301
+00:32:10,130 --> 00:32:17,380
+بالأسبابعلى سبيل مثال آخر الأجال الأجال الأمار
+
+302
+00:32:17,380 --> 00:32:23,880
+يعني أمار الناس محددة لا تتغير ولا تتبدل فإذا جاء
+
+303
+00:32:23,880 --> 00:32:29,440
+أجالهم لا يستأخرون ساعة ولا يستقدمون لكن النبي صلى
+
+304
+00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:36,600
+الله عليه وسلم في الحديث الصحيح يقول من أراد أن
+
+305
+00:32:36,600 --> 00:32:45,220
+يُنسأ له في أثرهيُنسى له في أثره و بمعنى الحديث
+
+306
+00:32:45,220 --> 00:32:51,360
+يُزاد له في عمره فليصر رحمة فليصر رحمة فصلة الرحم
+
+307
+00:32:51,360 --> 00:32:56,620
+هي سبب في زيادة العمر فقد يكون مقدر له في علم الله
+
+308
+00:32:56,620 --> 00:33:04,480
+تبارك وتعالى الحتمي المنجز ثلاثون عامة فيكتب الله
+
+309
+00:33:04,480 --> 00:33:10,880
+تبارك وتعالى له زيادة في العمرعشرة أعوام أو قد على
+
+310
+00:33:10,880 --> 00:33:15,120
+تأويل بعض العلماء أن الله تبارك وتعالى يبارك له في
+
+311
+00:33:15,120 --> 00:33:20,370
+هذه الثلاثين عام كما كان لبعض علمائناكما كان لبعض
+
+312
+00:33:20,370 --> 00:33:25,610
+علمائنا، الواحد منهم أعتقد الإمام النووي مات قريب
+
+313
+00:33:25,610 --> 00:33:29,290
+من الثلاثين، ثلاثة وثلاثين عام، لكن ترك موروثا
+
+314
+00:33:29,290 --> 00:33:34,110
+علميا تستفيد منه الأمة، يعجز الناس اليوم في عصر
+
+315
+00:33:34,110 --> 00:33:38,510
+الكمبيوتر والتقنيات الحديثة عن أن ينتجوا ما أنتجه
+
+316
+00:33:38,510 --> 00:33:44,560
+هذا العالم الجليد، بارك الله لهم في أوقاتهمفإذا
+
+317
+00:33:44,560 --> 00:33:54,490
+هناك جانب أو صنف من الأعمال هو قابل للتغييرجزء من
+
+318
+00:33:54,490 --> 00:33:58,690
+قضاء الله تبارك وتعالى قابل للتغيير الله تبارك
+
+319
+00:33:58,690 --> 00:34:02,610
+وتعالى يغفر بالذنب وهذه فائدة الدعاء لو لم يكن
+
+320
+00:34:02,610 --> 00:34:08,250
+هناك تغيير في قضاء الله وقدره بهذا المعنى الذي
+
+321
+00:34:08,250 --> 00:34:14,710
+بيناه لما كانت هناك فائدة لدعائنا لله تبارك وتعالى
+
+322
+00:34:16,300 --> 00:34:20,460
+اللقاء القادم ان شاء الله تعالى نستكمل هذه المباحث
+
+323
+00:34:20,460 --> 00:34:24,460
+أقول قولي هذا وأستغفر الله لي ولكم والسلام عليكم
+
+324
+00:34:24,460 --> 00:34:26,240
+ورحمة الله وبركته
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/n1I8p3Dc7Y4.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/n1I8p3Dc7Y4.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..86baa31fa4d2adaab8388f2874441b98849c1183
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/n1I8p3Dc7Y4.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1395 @@
+1
+00:00:20,810 --> 00:00:24,490
+أعوذ بالله السميع العلي من الشيطان الرجيم بسم الله
+
+2
+00:00:24,490 --> 00:00:29,310
+الرحمن الرحيم الحمد لله رب العالمين وأصلي وأسلم 
+
+3
+00:00:29,310 --> 00:00:33,110
+على رسول الله الأمين محمد بن عبد الله الصادق
+
+4
+00:00:33,110 --> 00:00:38,150
+الأمين صلى الله عليه وعلى آله وصحبه وسلم أجمعين
+
+5
+00:00:38,150 --> 00:00:45,110
+وبعد موضوعنا أدلة البعث والنشور تحدثنا في اللقاء
+
+6
+00:00:45,110 --> 00:00:51,680
+السابق في بعض هذه الأدلة نعيدها باختصار ثم نتوسع إن
+
+7
+00:00:51,680 --> 00:00:57,540
+شاء الله فيما لم نتحدث فيه في اللقاء السابق ذكرنا
+
+8
+00:00:57,540 --> 00:01:02,500
+من الأدلة سابقا إخبار العليم الخبير بوقوع يوم
+
+9
+00:01:02,500 --> 00:01:07,700
+القيامة فهذه الآيات القرآنية التي تتحدث عن اليوم
+
+10
+00:01:07,700 --> 00:01:14,120
+الآخر تكفي عندنا نحن المؤمنين أن اليوم الآخر كائن
+
+11
+00:01:14,120 --> 00:01:19,700
+لا محالة بمعنى أنه سيحصل سيقع كما أخبر ربنا تبارك
+
+12
+00:01:19,700 --> 00:01:23,800
+وتعالى في آيات كثيرة منها قول الله تبارك وتعالى إن
+
+13
+00:01:23,800 --> 00:01:30,160
+الدين لواقع إن الساعة آتية أكاد أخفيها إلى غير ذلك
+
+14
+00:01:30,160 --> 00:01:36,200
+من الآيات من الأدلة أيضا وهذا من الأدلة الحسية
+
+15
+00:01:36,200 --> 00:01:42,650
+الاستدلال على البعث بمن أماتهم الله ثم أحياهم كما
+
+16
+00:01:42,650 --> 00:01:48,010
+أخبر الله تعالى عن ذلك فوقفنا في اللقاء السابق على
+
+17
+00:01:48,010 --> 00:01:54,070
+خمسة حالات خمس حالات ذكرها الله تبارك وتعالى في
+
+18
+00:01:54,070 --> 00:02:00,720
+صورة البقرة أمات الله تبارك وتعالى فيها أناسا ثم
+
+19
+00:02:00,720 --> 00:02:06,780
+أحياهم سبحانه وتعالى فالقادر على إحيائهم في الحياة
+
+20
+00:02:06,780 --> 00:02:12,840
+الدنيا قادر على إحيائهم يوم القيامة يوم يقوم الناس
+
+21
+00:02:12,840 --> 00:02:18,440
+لرب العالمين فهذا دليل آخر أضفنا لذلك ما كان من
+
+22
+00:02:18,440 --> 00:02:23,300
+معجزات عيسى عليه السلام وأحيي الموت بإذن الله
+
+23
+00:02:23,300 --> 00:02:27,140
+فالمحيي هو الله تبارك وتعالى وليس عيسى عليه السلام
+
+24
+00:02:28,010 --> 00:02:33,430
+فإذاً هذا دليل ثاني على البعث والنشور، الاستدلال
+
+25
+00:02:33,430 --> 00:02:37,530
+على البعث بمن أماتهم الله، ثم أحياهم في هذه
+
+26
+00:02:37,530 --> 00:02:44,600
+الحياة الدنيا الدليل الثالث والرابع والخامس هذه
+
+27
+00:02:44,600 --> 00:02:50,780
+الأدلة الثلاثة مأخوذة من أواخر سورة ياسين من أواخر
+
+28
+00:02:50,780 --> 00:02:55,580
+سورة ياسين أولها الاستدلال على النشأة الأخرى
+
+29
+00:02:55,580 --> 00:03:00,600
+بالنشأة الأولى الاستدلال على النشأة الأخرى بالنشأة
+
+30
+00:03:00,600 --> 00:03:04,940
+الأولى وقولنا أن هذا الدليل هذا المفهوم نأخذه من
+
+31
+00:03:04,940 --> 00:03:11,110
+قول الله تبارك وتعالى قل يحييها الذي أنشأها أول مرة
+
+32
+00:03:11,110 --> 00:03:17,470
+وهو بكل خلق عليم فالقادر على إنشائها النشأة الأولى
+
+33
+00:03:17,470 --> 00:03:22,250
+قادر سبحانه وتعالى على إعادتها متى شاء سبحانه
+
+34
+00:03:22,250 --> 00:03:27,770
+وتعالى وهذا أمر منطقي وطبيعي وهذا يصنف من الأدلة
+
+35
+00:03:27,770 --> 00:03:33,700
+العقلية لنا أن نخاطب به الملاحدة أو المنكرين لليوم
+
+36
+00:03:33,700 --> 00:03:37,700
+الآخر ولا نقول لهم قال الله وقال الرسول لنا أن نضع
+
+37
+00:03:37,700 --> 00:03:43,520
+هذه الآية في قالب دليل عقلي في قالب دليل عقلي
+
+38
+00:03:43,520 --> 00:03:50,130
+ونقول لهم الذي أنشأ الناس أول مرة قادر على أن
+
+39
+00:03:50,130 --> 00:03:54,270
+ينشئهم المرة الثانية هذا دليل عقلي عند كل العقلاء
+
+40
+00:03:54,270 --> 00:03:57,830
+فعند كل العقلاء النشأة الأولى أصعب من النشأة
+
+41
+00:03:57,830 --> 00:04:01,790
+الثانية والنشأة الثانية أصعب من النشأة الأولى هذا
+
+42
+00:04:01,790 --> 00:04:06,720
+دليل عقلي عند كل العقلاء قاسم مشترك والله تبارك
+
+43
+00:04:06,720 --> 00:04:11,940
+وتعالى لا يوجد في حقه سهل ولا صعب فكله سيان عند
+
+44
+00:04:11,940 --> 00:04:16,780
+الله تبارك وتعالى كل ذلك سواء كما سيأتي إنما أمره
+
+45
+00:04:16,780 --> 00:04:21,500
+إذا أراد شيئا أي يقول له كن فيكون فهذا استدلال
+
+46
+00:04:21,500 --> 00:04:26,140
+وذكرته في اللقاء السابق سبب نزول هذه الآيات من عند
+
+47
+00:04:26,140 --> 00:04:31,740
+قوله تعالى أولم يرى الإنسان أن خلقناه من نطفة
+
+48
+00:04:34,320 --> 00:04:38,800
+فإذا هو خصيمه المبين وضرب لنا مثله ونسي خلقه إلى
+
+49
+00:04:38,800 --> 00:04:45,880
+آخر الصورة الكريمة هذه الآيات سنأخذ منها ثلاثة
+
+50
+00:04:45,880 --> 00:04:49,800
+أدلة هذا هو الدليل الأول منها الاستدلال على
+
+51
+00:04:49,800 --> 00:04:52,140
+النشأة الأخرى بالنشأة الأولى
+
+52
+00:04:56,540 --> 00:05:01,800
+أما الدليل الثاني منها كما قلنا هو الاستدلال على
+
+53
+00:05:01,800 --> 00:05:08,680
+البعث والإعادة بإخراج النار من الشجر الأخضر بإخراج
+
+54
+00:05:08,680 --> 00:05:13,300
+النار من الشجر الأخضر هذا ما انتهت به المحاضرة
+
+55
+00:05:13,300 --> 00:05:20,400
+السابقة فالله تبارك وتعالى الذي أخرج النار وصفاتها
+
+56
+00:05:20,400 --> 00:05:28,480
+صفات النار أنها خفيفة حارة تصعد إلى أعلى جافة
+
+57
+00:05:28,480 --> 00:05:33,240
+أخرجها الله تبارك وتعالى من ضدها وهو الشجر الأخضر
+
+58
+00:05:33,240 --> 00:05:39,960
+المقتنز بالماء والماء ثقيل لو سكبناه يسقط إلى أسفل
+
+59
+00:05:39,960 --> 00:05:45,660
+وهو بارد انظري إلى قدرة الله تبارك وتعالى، أخرج
+
+60
+00:05:45,660 --> 00:05:51,780
+الشيء من ضده، أخرج النار من الشجر الأخضر، فالقادر
+
+61
+00:05:51,780 --> 00:05:55,580
+على إخراج النار من الشجر الأخضر قادر على إخراج
+
+62
+00:05:55,580 --> 00:06:01,290
+الحياة أو إعادة الحياة إلى هذه العظام البالية والتي
+
+63
+00:06:01,290 --> 00:06:06,550
+هي أصلا خلق .. أصل .. هي أصل الإنسان هي أصل
+
+64
+00:06:06,550 --> 00:06:11,950
+الإنسان أو هي مما تبقى من هذا الإنسان إذا هذا دليل
+
+65
+00:06:11,950 --> 00:06:18,830
+ثاني نأخذه من سورة ياسين من أو نأخذه من سورة ياسين ثم
+
+66
+00:06:18,830 --> 00:06:23,590
+الدليل الثالث منها القادر على خلق الأعظم قادر على
+
+67
+00:06:23,590 --> 00:06:30,540
+خلق ما دونه هذا أيضا من الأدلة القوية وهو دليل عقلي
+
+68
+00:06:30,540 --> 00:06:38,940
+هو دليل عقلي يشترك فيه كل العقلاء يدعو له المنصف
+
+69
+00:06:38,940 --> 00:06:44,700
+الإنسان المنصف الذي يبحث عن الحقيقة والذي يصغي
+
+70
+00:06:44,700 --> 00:06:53,800
+بسمعه وقلبه ووجدانه وفعلا يبتغي الوصول للحق إن كان
+
+71
+00:06:53,800 --> 00:06:59,540
+منصفا القادر على خلق الأعظم قادر على خلق ما دونه
+
+72
+00:06:59,540 --> 00:07:06,240
+عند كل الناس عند كل العقلاء القادر على حمل 150
+
+73
+00:07:06,240 --> 00:07:14,460
+كيلو قادر على حمل حجر وزنه 20 كيلو الرجل الذي
+
+74
+00:07:14,460 --> 00:07:22,020
+يصارع الأبطال بالتأكيد يستطيع أن يسرع هذا الطفل هذا
+
+75
+00:07:22,020 --> 00:07:29,120
+عند كل العقلاء القادر على خلق الأعضاء قادر على خلق
+
+76
+00:07:29,120 --> 00:07:37,880
+ما دونهم هذا أمر منطقي وعقلاني ولله عز وجل المثل
+
+77
+00:07:37,880 --> 00:07:44,680
+الأعلى القادر على خلق السماوات والأرض السماوات
+
+78
+00:07:44,680 --> 00:07:45,200
+والأرض
+
+79
+00:07:48,040 --> 00:07:53,860
+الذي سبحانه وتعالى أبدعها على جلالتهم السماوات
+
+80
+00:07:53,860 --> 00:08:01,280
+والأرض وعظم شأنهما وكبر أجسامهما واسعتهما وعجيب
+
+81
+00:08:01,280 --> 00:08:07,480
+خلقهما قادر على أن يخلق هذا الإنسان فالدليل هنا من
+
+82
+00:08:07,480 --> 00:08:13,120
+سورة ياسين الله عز وجل يسأل أوليس الذي خلق
+
+83
+00:08:13,120 --> 00:08:23,250
+السماوات والأرض بقادر على أن يخلق مثلهم؟ أوليس الذي
+
+84
+00:08:23,250 --> 00:08:30,170
+خلق السماوات والأرض بهذه الضخامة وهذا الاتساع وهذه
+
+85
+00:08:30,170 --> 00:08:35,630
+العظمة؟ أي عجز سبحانه وتعالى عن أن يخلق هذا
+
+86
+00:08:35,630 --> 00:08:41,490
+الإنسان البسيط؟ كما قال تبارك وتعالى في آية أخرى
+
+87
+00:08:41,490 --> 00:08:47,890
+لخلق السماوات والأرض أكبر من خلق الناس ولكن أكثر
+
+88
+00:08:47,890 --> 00:08:53,770
+الناس لا يعلموا لخلق السماوات والأرض أكبر من خلق
+
+89
+00:08:53,770 --> 00:09:00,590
+الناس ولكن أكثر الناس لا يعلموا فإذا هذا دليل عقلي
+
+90
+00:09:00,590 --> 00:09:08,450
+لكل منصف يبحث عن الحقيقة لنا أن نستخدم هذا الدليل
+
+91
+00:09:08,450 --> 00:09:13,090
+هو ملك لنا لكل واحد مننا إن كنا نجادل أو نحاور
+
+92
+00:09:13,090 --> 00:09:18,370
+ملحدا، منكرا، يقول لنا لا أؤمن بالله ولا أؤمن بما
+
+93
+00:09:18,370 --> 00:09:22,550
+جاء عن الله، لا تقول لي قال الله وقال الرسول، يمكن
+
+94
+00:09:22,550 --> 00:09:26,090
+لنا أن نستخدم هذه الأدلة فهي ملك لنا أنزلها الله
+
+95
+00:09:26,090 --> 00:09:31,150
+عز وجل لنا لنستخدمها في حواراتنا في دعوتنا إلى الله
+
+96
+00:09:31,150 --> 00:09:36,390
+عز وجل فلنا أن نقول لهم كلنا يتفق كل العقلاء
+
+97
+00:09:36,390 --> 00:09:40,830
+متفقون على أن القادر على خلق الأعظم قادر على خلق
+
+98
+00:09:40,830 --> 00:09:45,890
+ما دونه فالخالق للسماوات والأرض إذا كنتم تؤمنون
+
+99
+00:09:45,890 --> 00:09:51,410
+بالله تبارك وتعالى قادر على خلق هذا الإنسان متى
+
+100
+00:09:51,410 --> 00:09:54,990
+شاء سبحانه وتعالى الإنسان لا شيء خلق الإنسان لا
+
+101
+00:09:54,990 --> 00:10:01,190
+شيء بالنسبة لخلق السماوات والأرض بل إن الله تبارك
+
+102
+00:10:01,190 --> 00:10:07,690
+وتعالى في مشهد آخر في سورة الإسراء يتحدى المنكرين
+
+103
+00:10:07,690 --> 00:10:14,150
+للبعث هم أصلا استبعدوا أن يعيدهم الله تبارك وتعالى
+
+104
+00:10:14,150 --> 00:10:23,750
+كونهم أصبحوا رفاتا عظاما بالية استعظموا استبعدوا
+
+105
+00:10:23,750 --> 00:10:30,810
+هم مندهشون هم استبعدوا أن يقدر الله عز وجل على
+
+106
+00:10:30,810 --> 00:10:36,570
+إعادتهم يوم القيامة كونهم مرت عليهم السنون والدهور
+
+107
+00:10:36,570 --> 00:10:45,430
+والعصور فأصبحوا في قبورهم رفاتا أو عظاما بالية أو
+
+108
+00:10:45,430 --> 00:10:51,450
+هذه العظام ضلت وساحت وماعت واختلطت بطراب الأرض
+
+109
+00:10:51,450 --> 00:10:57,760
+فكيف يعيدهم المولى تبارك وتعالى؟ الله تبارك وتعالى
+
+110
+00:10:57,760 --> 00:11:03,220
+في سورة الإسراء يتحداهم كما في قوله تعالى وقالوا
+
+111
+00:11:03,220 --> 00:11:10,220
+أذا كنا عظاما ورفاتا أإن لم نبعثون خلقا جديدا أيعقل
+
+112
+00:11:10,220 --> 00:11:18,240
+ذلك؟ فالله تبارك وتعالى هنا يتحداهم يقول لهم قل رد
+
+113
+00:11:18,240 --> 00:11:24,750
+عليهم يا محمد كونوا حجارة أو حديدة أو اختاروا غير
+
+114
+00:11:24,750 --> 00:11:28,770
+الحديد وغير الحجارة أو خلقا مما يكبر في صدوركم
+
+115
+00:11:28,770 --> 00:11:37,790
+حينها هيزيد عجبهم ويقولوا لك يا محمد من يعيدنا؟
+
+116
+00:11:37,790 --> 00:11:43,830
+أجبهم يا محمد حينها قل الذي فطركم أول مرة الذي
+
+117
+00:11:43,830 --> 00:11:49,450
+فطركم أول مرة يعيدكم ولو تسألنا أيهم أقرب إلى
+
+118
+00:11:49,450 --> 00:11:55,690
+الإنسانية والبشرية والحياة؟ الحديد والحجارة أم
+
+119
+00:11:55,690 --> 00:12:02,430
+الرفات والعظام؟ بالتأكيد العظام والرفات هذه العظام
+
+120
+00:12:02,430 --> 00:12:06,090
+البالية أقرب إلى الحياة لأنها في يوم من الأيام
+
+121
+00:12:06,090 --> 00:12:11,750
+كانت فيها حياة كانت فيها حياة فالله تبارك وتعالى
+
+122
+00:12:11,750 --> 00:12:17,610
+يخبرهم أنهم حتى لو كانوا حجارة أو حديدة الله تبارك
+
+123
+00:12:17,610 --> 00:12:22,610
+وتعالى يبعثهم فالله عز وجل لا يعجزه شيء في الأرض
+
+124
+00:12:22,610 --> 00:12:29,110
+ولا في السماء قدرته نافذة وشاملة سبحانه وتعالى
+
+125
+00:12:29,110 --> 00:12:36,810
+فالله على كل شيء قدير هذا دليل آخر هذا دليل ثالث 
+
+126
+00:12:36,810 --> 00:12:44,690
+أخذناه من أواخر سورة يس بعد هذه الآية يأتي
+
+127
+00:12:44,690 --> 00:12:49,490
+القانون الإلهي في الخلق يأتي القانون الإلهي في
+
+128
+00:12:49,490 --> 00:12:54,290
+الخلق بعد قوله تعالى أوليس الذي خلق السماوات
+
+129
+00:12:54,290 --> 00:12:59,410
+والأرض بقادر على أن يخلق مثلهم؟ لحظة التساؤل هنا
+
+130
+00:12:59,410 --> 00:13:04,870
+الاستفهام أوليس الذي خلق السماوات والأرض بقادر على
+
+131
+00:13:04,870 --> 00:13:12,030
+أن يخلق مثلهم؟ تأتي الإجابة بلى والتعقيب عقب الآية
+
+132
+00:13:12,030 --> 00:13:21,150
+وهو الخلاق العليم ما قالش الخالقان إيه؟ الخلاق ثم
+
+133
+00:13:21,150 --> 00:13:28,330
+استخدم اسماً من أسمائه العليم صفة العلم صفة العلم
+
+134
+00:13:28,330 --> 00:13:35,810
+قبل شوية قبل آيتين وهو بكل خلق عليم هنا وهو الخلاق 
+
+135
+00:13:35,810 --> 00:13:43,420
+العليم وفي سورة البقرة فلمّا تبين له قال أعلم أن
+
+136
+00:13:43,420 --> 00:13:50,300
+الله على كل شيء قادر صفة العلم وصفة القدرة دائماً
+
+137
+00:13:50,300 --> 00:13:55,960
+لو استحضرها الواحد منا يستطيع أن يحلّ الغاز وما
+
+138
+00:13:55,960 --> 00:14:00,340
+أشكل عليه في هذه القضية قضية البعث والنشور فالله
+
+139
+00:14:00,340 --> 00:14:05,660
+عز وجل قادر على كل شيء قادر سبحانه وتعالى وعالم لا 
+
+140
+00:14:05,660 --> 00:14:10,160
+يعذب عن علمه مثقال ذرة في السماوات ولا في الأرض
+
+141
+00:14:10,720 --> 00:14:15,160
+فهذا ما يجب أن نستحضره ونحن نتحدث عن البعث والنشور
+
+142
+00:14:15,160 --> 00:14:19,380
+الله عز وجل عالم بذرات الإنسان، خلاياه، عظم...
+
+143
+00:14:19,380 --> 00:14:24,100
+عظامه، أجزائه، أي نساحة، أي نضاعة، هي لم تضع، هي
+
+144
+00:14:24,100 --> 00:14:28,100
+في ملكوت الله تبارك وتعالى، بعد هذه الآيات، بعد
+
+145
+00:14:28,100 --> 00:14:32,360
+هذه الأدلة الثلاثة، تأتي الإشارة إلى قانون الخلق
+
+146
+00:14:32,360 --> 00:14:38,410
+الإلهي، إنما أمره بعد الآية هذه بعد أوليس الذي خلق
+
+147
+00:14:38,410 --> 00:14:43,290
+السماوات والأرض بقادر على أن يخلق مثلهم بلى وهو
+
+148
+00:14:43,290 --> 00:14:48,510
+الخلاق العليم إنما أمره إذا أراد شيئاً أن يقول له
+
+149
+00:14:48,510 --> 00:14:54,970
+كن فيكون تأتي هذه الآية تأتي هذه الإشارة إلى قانون
+
+150
+00:14:54,970 --> 00:15:03,390
+الخلق الإلهي حتى يمسح حتى تمسح ما يتسلل لفكر الواحد
+
+151
+00:15:03,390 --> 00:15:09,750
+منا أو بعضنا أو بعضنا من وهم سيء أو سوء ظن بالله 
+
+152
+00:15:09,750 --> 00:15:13,730
+تبارك وتعالى في الدليل الأول الذي أخذناه من هذه
+
+153
+00:15:13,730 --> 00:15:19,330
+الآيات من قوله تعالى قل يحييها الذي أنشأها أول مرة
+
+154
+00:15:19,330 --> 00:15:25,230
+وهو بكل خلق عليم فقد يتوهم البعض أن الخلق الأول
+
+155
+00:15:25,230 --> 00:15:30,450
+أصعب والخلق الثاني أسهل الله عز وجل يتساوى في حقه
+
+156
+00:15:31,040 --> 00:15:36,820
+يتساوى في حقه الخلق، لا يوجد في حقه سهل أو صعب أو
+
+157
+00:15:36,820 --> 00:15:40,740
+هذا أسهل وهذا أصعب، الله عز وجل يتساوى في حقه
+
+158
+00:15:40,740 --> 00:15:45,900
+الأمران، يتساوى في حقه، فهو سبحانه وتعالى عنده خلق
+
+159
+00:15:45,900 --> 00:15:53,980
+الذرة وخلق المجرة، الأمران سواء الأمران سواء، لا
+
+160
+00:15:53,980 --> 00:15:59,800
+فرقة بين خلق الحقير وخلق الجليل أو العظيم والقليل،
+
+161
+00:15:59,800 --> 00:16:05,080
+لا، الأمر كله واحد، إنما أمره... هذا قانون الخلق
+
+162
+00:16:05,080 --> 00:16:10,580
+الإلهي، إنما أمره إذا أراد شيئاً أن يقول له كن،
+
+163
+00:16:10,580 --> 00:16:17,720
+فيكون فيكون فحتى لا يتسلل لفهمنا هذا الفهم
+
+164
+00:16:17,720 --> 00:16:22,340
+الخاطئ أن في حق الله تبارك وتعالى سهل وصعب أو أسهل
+
+165
+00:16:22,340 --> 00:16:26,080
+وأصعب الخلق الأول أسهل هذا بالنسبة لنا نحن البشر
+
+166
+00:16:26,080 --> 00:16:30,560
+أسهل وأصعب لكن بالنسبة لله تبارك وتعالى قانون
+
+167
+00:16:30,560 --> 00:16:35,180
+الخلق عنده إنما أمره إذا أراد شيئاً أن يقول له كن
+
+168
+00:16:35,180 --> 00:16:40,320
+فيكون تأتي آخر آية في سورة البقرة في سورة يس
+
+169
+00:16:40,320 --> 00:16:49,440
+آخر آية فسبحان الذي بيده ملكوته
+
+170
+00:16:49,440 --> 00:16:56,680
+كل شيء لم يفلت شيء من عظام الإنسان أو رفاته أو
+
+171
+00:16:56,680 --> 00:17:04,080
+خلاياه هي بيد الله فسبحان الذي بيده ملكوته كل شيء و
+
+172
+00:17:04,080 --> 00:17:11,610
+آخر كلمة وإليه ترجعون يعني البعث والنشور وإليه
+
+173
+00:17:11,610 --> 00:17:16,150
+ترجعون لحظة هذه الدقة وهذه البلاغة لحظة هذا
+
+174
+00:17:16,150 --> 00:17:20,110
+الإيجاز في كلام الله تبارك وتعالى بهذه الصورة
+
+175
+00:17:20,110 --> 00:17:26,550
+القوية في إثبات الدليل تلو الآخر حشد الأدلة الواحد
+
+176
+00:17:26,550 --> 00:17:30,550
+تلو الآخر للرد على هؤلاء المتغطرسين الجاحدين
+
+177
+00:17:30,550 --> 00:17:36,150
+المنكرين لحقيقة اليوم الآخر هذه حقيقة أثبتها
+
+178
+00:17:36,150 --> 00:17:41,560
+القرآن الكريم وهي ستكون كما أخبرنا المولى تبارك
+
+179
+00:17:41,560 --> 00:17:48,700
+وتعالى. الدليل الثالث والرابع والخامس أخذناها من
+
+180
+00:17:48,700 --> 00:17:54,100
+أواخر صورة إيه؟ من أواخر سورة يس. الآن سادساً
+
+181
+00:17:54,100 --> 00:18:03,480
+الاستدلال على البعث بأن حكمة الله وعدله يقتضيان
+
+182
+00:18:03,480 --> 00:18:10,860
+البعث والجزاء سادساً الاستدلال على البعث بأن حكمة
+
+183
+00:18:10,860 --> 00:18:16,220
+الله وعدله يقتضيان البعث والجزاء فالله تبارك
+
+184
+00:18:16,220 --> 00:18:22,640
+وتعالى خلق الناس للابتلاء خلقهم لحكمة وغاية جليلة
+
+185
+00:18:22,640 --> 00:18:29,640
+عظيمة الذي خلق الموت والحياة ليبلوكم أيّكم أحسن
+
+186
+00:18:29,640 --> 00:18:37,830
+عمله قال تعالى أيحسب الإنسان أن يترك سدى هكذا، بلا
+
+187
+00:18:37,830 --> 00:18:45,010
+مساءلة، بلا حساب؟ هل يُعقل ذلك؟ أفحسبتم أنما
+
+188
+00:18:45,010 --> 00:18:52,690
+خلقناكم عبثاً وأنكم إلينا لا ترجعون؟
+
+189
+00:18:52,690 --> 00:18:58,110
+فتعالى الله الملك الحق الآيات هنا تتكلم عن البعث
+
+190
+00:18:59,260 --> 00:19:04,380
+وأنكم إلينا لا ترجعون يعني لا تبعثون لا يكون لكم
+
+191
+00:19:04,380 --> 00:19:08,620
+بعث ولا نشور أفحسبتم
+
+192
+00:19:08,620 --> 00:19:14,240
+أنما خلقناكم عبثاً وأنكم إلينا لا ترجعون فتعالى
+
+193
+00:19:14,240 --> 00:19:20,500
+الله الملك الحق فعدل الله هذا هو وجه الدلالة عدل
+
+194
+00:19:20,500 --> 00:19:27,520
+الله وحكمته وإحقاقه الحق وإبطاله الباطل وإعطائه
+
+195
+00:19:27,520 --> 00:19:32,860
+لكل ذي حق حقه وتمييزه بين الخبيث والطيب والمحسن
+
+196
+00:19:32,860 --> 00:19:38,820
+والمسيء كل ذلك يأبى إلا أن يكون هناك يوم آخر بعد
+
+197
+00:19:38,820 --> 00:19:45,640
+نهاية الدنيا ينال فيه كل إنسان جزاءه وما يستحقه من
+
+198
+00:19:45,640 --> 00:19:53,480
+الثواب أو العقاب على ما قدم من خير أو من شر لا
+
+199
+00:19:53,480 --> 00:20:00,540
+يمكن أن يتساوى الناس جميعاً في الآخرة فبعضهم آمن
+
+200
+00:20:00,540 --> 00:20:08,620
+وبعضهم كفر بعضهم وحده وبعضهم أشرك بعضهم كان في
+
+201
+00:20:08,620 --> 00:20:17,090
+الدنيا ظالماً وما أكثر الظالمين وبعضهم كان مظلوماً هل
+
+202
+00:20:17,090 --> 00:20:24,530
+يُعقل أن يتساوى هؤلاء مع هؤلاء قال تعالى أفنجعل
+
+203
+00:20:24,530 --> 00:20:32,710
+المسلمين كالمجرمين ما لكم كيف تحكمون ده دليل قوي
+
+204
+00:20:32,710 --> 00:20:36,530
+حكمة الله وعدله
+
+205
+00:20:38,340 --> 00:20:46,000
+يقتضيان البعث والجزاء البعث والجزاء فالله عادل
+
+206
+00:20:46,000 --> 00:20:55,920
+سبحانه وتعالى لا يمكن أن يكون مصير الذي وحده وعبده
+
+207
+00:20:55,920 --> 00:21:06,100
+وأطاعه كمصير الذي أشرك به وعصاه لا يمكن أن يكون
+
+208
+00:21:06,100 --> 00:21:11,590
+هذا كذاك هم أصلاً لم يكونوا في الدنيا سواء في الحياة
+
+209
+00:21:11,590 --> 00:21:17,450
+الدنيا سواء فهل يُعقل في الممات أن يكونوا سواء؟ لا
+
+210
+00:21:17,450 --> 00:21:24,630
+يمكن عدل الله وحكمته يقتضيان أن يكون فارقاً تمييزاً
+
+211
+00:21:24,630 --> 00:21:31,270
+في مقال كل واحد منهما اسمعي إلى هذه الآيات أم حسب
+
+212
+00:21:31,270 --> 00:21:36,640
+الذين اجترحوا السيئات أن نجعلهم كالذين آمنوا وعملوا
+
+213
+00:21:36,640 --> 00:21:43,100
+الصالحات سواء محياهم ومماتهم ساء ما يحكمون هم أصلاً
+
+214
+00:21:43,100 --> 00:21:50,800
+لم يكونوا سواء مثل بعض يعني في الدنيا وكذلك لن
+
+215
+00:21:50,800 --> 00:22:01,910
+يكونوا سواء في الممات عدل الله وحكمته يقتضيان إيه؟
+
+216
+00:22:01,910 --> 00:22:09,990
+أن يكون يوم للجزاء يوم للحساب يوم لأنصاف المظلومين
+
+217
+00:22:09,990 --> 00:22:19,690
+لتؤدى الحقوق يوم القيامة حتى يقاد للشاة الجلحاء من
+
+218
+00:22:19,690 --> 00:22:25,610
+الشاة القرناء لابد وأن الله تبارك وتعالى ينصف
+
+219
+00:22:25,610 --> 00:22:31,410
+المظلومين حكمته سبحانه وتعالى وعدله يقتضيان ذلك
+
+220
+00:22:31,410 --> 00:22:37,870
+حاشاه سبحانه وتعالى أن يكون ظالماً حاشاه أن يتساوى
+
+221
+00:22:37,870 --> 00:22:43,610
+عنده الظالم والمظلوم نحن نشاهد أن كثيراً من الظالمين
+
+222
+00:22:43,610 --> 00:22:52,250
+يموتون ميتة طبيعية في هذه الدنيا فهل يُعقل بعد أن
+
+223
+00:22:52,250 --> 00:22:58,310
+ظلموا وتعسفوا واعتدوا وقتلوا وشردوا وسفكوا الدماء
+
+224
+00:22:58,310 --> 00:23:03,410
+واعتدوا على الأعراض ماتوا ميتة طبيعية هل يُعقل أنهم
+
+225
+00:23:03,410 --> 00:23:08,650
+أفلتوا هكذا من اليقات؟ لا يمكن لابد أن يكون يوم
+
+226
+00:23:08,650 --> 00:23:16,230
+للحساب يوم آخر للحساب الله عز وجل يوقفهم ويسألهم
+
+227
+00:23:16,230 --> 00:23:23,570
+ويحاسبهم ويقتص للمظلومين منهم إذا
+
+228
+00:23:24,620 --> 00:23:30,120
+هذا دليل دليل بنفس المعنى قول الله تبارك وتعالى في
+
+229
+00:23:30,120 --> 00:23:35,180
+سورة ص وما خلقنا السماء والأرض وما بينهما باطلاً
+
+230
+00:23:35,180 --> 00:23:41,960
+ذلك ظن الذين كفروا فويد للذين كفروا من النار أم
+
+231
+00:23:41,960 --> 00:23:46,980
+نجعل الذين آمنوا وعملوا الصالحات كالمفسدين في
+
+232
+00:23:46,980 --> 00:23:55,250
+الأرض أم نجعل المتقين كالفجار لا يمكن لا يمكن كل
+
+233
+00:23:55,250 --> 00:24:03,250
+هذه الآيات تصب وترشد وتبين أن حكمة الله وعدله
+
+234
+00:24:03,250 --> 00:24:08,890
+يقتضيان أن يكون يوم للحساب فهذا من أقوى الأدلة
+
+235
+00:24:08,890 --> 00:24:12,230
+التي
+
+236
+00:24:12,230 --> 00:24:20,870
+تثبت أن هناك يوم آخر ثم من الأدلة أيضاً الاستدلال
+
+237
+00:24:20,870 --> 00:24:27,250
+على البعث بحصول اليقظة بعد الموت الاستدلال على
+
+238
+00:24:27,250 --> 00:24:35,090
+البعث بحصول اليقظة بعد الموت النوم... النوم شبيه
+
+239
+00:24:35,090 --> 00:24:38,750
+الموت فالانسان
+
+240
+00:24:38,750 --> 00:24:45,450
+عندما يموت تقبض روحه... قول الروح من أمر الله
+
+241
+00:24:45,450 --> 00:24:54,650
+فالروح تقبض قبضاً ليس كاملاً تسمى الوفاة الصغرى
+
+242
+00:24:54,650 --> 00:25:04,670
+فالنوم وفاء والقيام من النوم بعث ونشور النوم وفاء
+
+243
+00:25:04,670 --> 00:25:10,270
+بدليل قول الله عز وجل وهو الذي يتوفاكم بالليل
+
+244
+00:25:10,270 --> 00:25:18,630
+ويعلم ما جرحتم بالنهار ثم يبعثكم فيه ليقضى أجل
+
+245
+00:25:18,630 --> 00:25:25,440
+مسمّى ثم إليه مرجعكم ثم ينبئكم بما كنتم تعملون ففي
+
+246
+00:25:25,440 --> 00:25:31,740
+النوم تقبض أرواح العباد تقبض أرواح العباد قبضاً ليس
+
+247
+00:25:31,740 --> 00:25:40,020
+كاملاً أمر الله تبارك هذا أمر لله تبارك وتعالى ومن
+
+248
+00:25:40,020 --> 00:25:50,910
+شاء الله عز وجل يرسل روحه في آيات سورة الزمر الله
+
+249
+00:25:50,910 --> 00:25:59,870
+يتوفى الأنفس حين موتها حين موتها يعني حين نومها
+
+250
+00:25:59,870 --> 00:26:03,530
+الله 
+
+251
+00:26:03,530 --> 00:26:10,070
+يتوفى الأنفس حين موتها حين موتها يعني حين نومها
+
+252
+00:26:10,070 --> 00:26:16,450
+واللتي لم تموت في منامها فيمسك التي قضى عليها
+
+253
+00:26:16,450 --> 00:26:26,190
+الموت ويرسل الأخرى إلى أجل مسمى فيمسكوا
+
+254
+00:26:26,190 --> 00:26:32,370
+التي قضى عليها الموت ويرسلوا الأخرى وهذا حال كثير
+
+255
+00:26:32,370 --> 00:26:40,430
+من الناس نحن نمنا في البارحة ليلة الماضية الله
+
+256
+00:26:40,430 --> 00:26:49,080
+تبارك وتعالى قبض أرواحنا ثم أرسلها ثم أرسلها قبض
+
+257
+00:26:49,080 --> 00:26:53,920
+الله عز وجل أرواحنا ثم أرسلها لذلك علمنا نبينا صلى
+
+258
+00:26:53,920 --> 00:27:00,220
+الله عليه وسلم أن نقول عندما نستيقظ الحمد لله الذي
+
+259
+00:27:00,220 --> 00:27:07,240
+أحيانا بعدما أماتنا وإليه النشور هذا من هدي نبينا
+
+260
+00:27:07,240 --> 00:27:12,680
+صلى الله عليه وسلم لكن هناك أناس ناموا مثلنا
+
+261
+00:27:16,060 --> 00:27:22,040
+قُبضت أرواحهم مثل ما قُبضت أرواحنا وبقيت مقبوظة
+
+262
+00:27:22,040 --> 00:27:30,700
+كثير من الناس يحدث عنهم أهلهم وذويهم أنهم ذهبوا
+
+263
+00:27:30,700 --> 00:27:39,240
+للنوم وبقوا في نومتهم يعني ماتوا ماتوا وهم نائمون
+
+264
+00:27:39,240 --> 00:27:43,280
+فاليقظة
+
+265
+00:27:43,280 --> 00:27:44,780
+بعد النوم
+
+266
+00:27:48,260 --> 00:28:00,280
+هو دليل على البعث لأن الروح تقبض عند النوم فالذي
+
+267
+00:28:00,280 --> 00:28:05,180
+أعاد لنا الحياة بعد هذا القبض قادر سبحانه وتعالى
+
+268
+00:28:05,180 --> 00:28:10,820
+إن ميتنا أن يحيينا وقادر سبحانه وتعالى أن يحيي
+
+269
+00:28:10,820 --> 00:28:17,500
+الموتى متى يشاء تبارك وتعالى هذا دليل أيضا على البعث
+
+270
+00:28:17,500 --> 00:28:25,240
+والنشور الدليل الأخير على البعث والنشور دليل
+
+271
+00:28:25,240 --> 00:28:33,180
+بعنوان الاستدلال بإحياء الأرض والنبات فالأرض
+
+272
+00:28:33,180 --> 00:28:39,660
+تكون ميتة هامدة يمر الواحد منها على مساحة على
+
+273
+00:28:39,660 --> 00:28:46,730
+مساحات من الأرض شاسعة لا زرع فيها ولا نبت ولا نبات
+
+274
+00:28:46,730 --> 00:28:53,630
+فيقول سبحان الله هذه أرض ميتة أهلها لم يهتموا بها
+
+275
+00:28:53,630 --> 00:29:03,510
+تركوها هكذا ثم بعد أيام قد يهتموا بها أصحابها
+
+276
+00:29:03,510 --> 00:29:11,030
+ويقوموا بسقيها حرثها وسقيها وسمادها وما إلى ذلك
+
+277
+00:29:11,030 --> 00:29:21,060
+فتخرج فيها الحشائش والزروع أو ينزل عليها مطر فتصبح
+
+278
+00:29:21,060 --> 00:29:27,560
+خضراء يانعة فيها حياة القادر على إحياء هذه الأرض
+
+279
+00:29:27,560 --> 00:29:32,240
+الميتة قادر سبحانه وتعالى على إحياء الأموات
+
+280
+00:29:32,240 --> 00:29:37,460
+والقرآن الكريم ربنا تبارك وتعالى في كلامه العزيز
+
+281
+00:29:37,460 --> 00:29:43,520
+في القرآن الكريم ربط وقرن بين إحياء الأرض الميتة
+
+282
+00:29:44,280 --> 00:29:52,640
+وبين إحياء الموتى من هذه الآيات قال تعالى ومن
+
+283
+00:29:52,640 --> 00:30:01,560
+آياته أنك ترى الأرض خاشعة خاشعة 
+
+284
+00:30:01,560 --> 00:30:11,960
+ميتة ساكنة لا حراك فيها ترى الأرض خاشعة فإذا
+
+285
+00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:19,030
+أنزلنا عليها الماء اهتزت وربت اهتزت أصبحت فيها حركة
+
+286
+00:30:19,030 --> 00:30:26,710
+فيها حياة فيها حيوية اهتزت وربت ما معناه ربت زادت
+
+287
+00:30:26,710 --> 00:30:33,430
+ونمت فإذا أنزلنا عليها الماء اهتزت وربت إن الذي
+
+288
+00:30:33,430 --> 00:30:42,490
+أحياها لمحي الموتى إنه على كل شيء قدير مرة أخرى
+
+289
+00:30:42,490 --> 00:30:51,730
+أعيد وأكرر وأنبه هنا إلى صفة القدرة وصفة العلم هاتان
+
+290
+00:30:51,730 --> 00:31:00,630
+صفتان لابد من أن نستحضرهما دائما آية أخرى قال
+
+291
+00:31:00,630 --> 00:31:05,970
+تعالى ونزلنا من السماء ماء مبارك فأنبتنا به جنات
+
+292
+00:31:07,720 --> 00:31:12,840
+وحبًّا والحصيد والنخل باسقات لها طلع النضيد رزقا
+
+293
+00:31:12,840 --> 00:31:19,880
+للعباد وأحيينا به بلدة ميتة قال تعالى كذلك الخروج
+
+294
+00:31:19,880 --> 00:31:25,940
+كذلك الخروج كما أحيينا هذه البلدة الميتة بعد
+
+295
+00:31:25,940 --> 00:31:37,810
+مواتها أحييناها كذلك ستخرجون من قبوركم كذلك ستخرجون
+
+296
+00:31:37,810 --> 00:31:42,830
+من قبوركم وكما قال كما جاء في الحديث عن أبي هريرة
+
+297
+00:31:42,830 --> 00:31:46,630
+أن النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم قال بين النفختين
+
+298
+00:31:46,630 --> 00:31:52,390
+أربعون طبعا سئل أبو هريرة رضوان الله عليه عن
+
+299
+00:31:52,390 --> 00:31:58,130
+الأربعين فقال أبيت كان يقول أبيت يعني لا أدري،
+
+300
+00:31:58,130 --> 00:32:03,150
+لا أعرف، لا أدري ما هي حقيقة الأربعين بين النفختين
+
+301
+00:32:03,150 --> 00:32:08,350
+أربعون قيل له أربعون عام قال أبيت قيل له أربعون
+
+302
+00:32:08,350 --> 00:32:15,530
+شهر قال أبيت ثم يأمر الله عز وجل السماء أن تهطل
+
+303
+00:32:15,530 --> 00:32:21,930
+مطرا جاء في الحديث كماني الرجال فتنبط منه أجساد
+
+304
+00:32:21,930 --> 00:32:27,730
+الناس كما ينبط البقل بجانب السيل بجانب النهر يعني
+
+305
+00:32:27,730 --> 00:32:35,370
+هكذا كذلك الخروج كذلك الخروج كما تخرج النباتات الله
+
+306
+00:32:35,370 --> 00:32:41,450
+عز وجل سيخرج الناس من قبورهم للحساب للوقوف أمامه
+
+307
+00:32:41,450 --> 00:32:46,590
+تبارك وتعالى في محكمة عادلة هذه أدلة حشدناها
+
+308
+00:32:46,590 --> 00:32:52,890
+ثمانية أدلة لإثبات البعث والنشور كل منصف كل منصف
+
+309
+00:32:52,890 --> 00:32:58,930
+لو أراد الإنصاف والحقيقة استمع إليها بقلبه استمع
+
+310
+00:32:58,930 --> 00:33:05,160
+إليها بقلبه ووعيه وأراد الوصول إلى اليقين والحقيقة
+
+311
+00:33:05,160 --> 00:33:09,620
+بالتأكيد يقتنع بهذه الأدلة وكما رأينا أن أدلة
+
+312
+00:33:09,620 --> 00:33:16,320
+القرآن الكريم هي أدلة بعد أنها أدلة نقلية هي في
+
+313
+00:33:16,320 --> 00:33:21,360
+الوقت ذاته هي أدلة عقلية لأن القرآن الكريم ما خوطب
+
+314
+00:33:21,360 --> 00:33:27,210
+به إلا العقلاء ما خوطب به إلا العقلاء رفع عن أمتي
+
+315
+00:33:27,210 --> 00:33:32,610
+الخطأ والنسيان وما استكره عليه أي نعم ورفع القلم
+
+316
+00:33:32,610 --> 00:33:37,310
+عن المجنون حتى يفيق المجنون فالقرآن ليس مخاطبا به
+
+317
+00:33:37,310 --> 00:33:41,690
+المجانين القرآن الكريم مخاطب به العقلاء فهذه أدلة
+
+318
+00:33:41,690 --> 00:33:46,350
+بعد أنها في الوقت نفسه هي نقلية لكن أيضا هي أدلة
+
+319
+00:33:46,350 --> 00:33:52,170
+عقلية تخاطب العقلاء من أراد الحقيقة والصواب يهتدي
+
+320
+00:33:52,470 --> 00:33:58,210
+إلى هذه الحقيقة قد يجادل البعض قد يجادل البعض
+
+321
+00:33:58,210 --> 00:34:06,590
+فيقول لو أكل إنسان إنسان بمعنى تغذى الآكل على جسد
+
+322
+00:34:06,590 --> 00:34:11,690
+المأكول وكما
+
+323
+00:34:11,690 --> 00:34:16,650
+يعني يقول المسلمون هكذا هو يقول أنا هتكلم بلسان
+
+324
+00:34:16,650 --> 00:34:25,650
+هذا الملحد لو أكل إنسان إنسان وأراد الله أن يبعث
+
+325
+00:34:25,650 --> 00:34:30,570
+هذا وذاك ليحاسب هذا على أفعاله وهذا على أعماله
+
+326
+00:34:30,570 --> 00:34:36,210
+فكيف يكون ذلك وقد تغذى الآكل على جسد المأكول
+
+327
+00:34:36,210 --> 00:34:42,810
+فأصبحوا جسمًا واحدًا جسمًا واحدًا الإجابة على ذلك
+
+328
+00:34:42,810 --> 00:34:48,650
+الأمر يسير وسهل فالله تبارك وتعالى دائما كما قلت
+
+329
+00:34:48,650 --> 00:34:54,630
+استحضري صفتيه العلم والقدرة، العلم والقدرة، صفة
+
+330
+00:34:54,630 --> 00:34:58,930
+العلم، وانت تراين أن الآيات القرآنية تشير، تستخدم،
+
+331
+00:34:58,930 --> 00:35:03,390
+يعني هنا في آية سورة فصلت، ومن آياتي أنك ترى
+
+332
+00:35:03,390 --> 00:35:07,690
+الأرض خاشعة فإذا أنزلنا عليها الماء اهتزت وربت، إن
+
+333
+00:35:07,690 --> 00:35:14,470
+الذي أحياها لمحي الموتى جلّ شأنه، وهو الغفور الرحيم قال
+
+334
+00:35:14,470 --> 00:35:19,670
+إن الله إنه على كل شيء قدير. ما قالش إنه عزيز حكيم
+
+335
+00:35:19,670 --> 00:35:24,890
+مثلا. لأ قال إنه على كل شيء قدير.فهنا استحضار صفة
+
+336
+00:35:24,890 --> 00:35:30,650
+القدرة مهمة جدا. في سورة يس مرتين المرة الأولى
+
+337
+00:35:30,650 --> 00:35:35,750
+وهو بكل خلق عليم. المرة الثانية وهو الخلاق العليم
+
+338
+00:35:35,750 --> 00:35:40,570
+صفة العلم. في سورة البقرة صفة القدرة فلمّا تبين له
+
+339
+00:35:40,570 --> 00:35:45,270
+قال أعلم أن الله على كل شيء قدير صفة العلم وصفة
+
+340
+00:35:45,270 --> 00:35:48,890
+القدرة لو استحضر هاتين الصفتين ينحل مثل هذا
+
+341
+00:35:48,890 --> 00:35:52,790
+الإشكال فالله عز وجل قادر هو عالم سبحانه وتعالى
+
+342
+00:35:52,790 --> 00:35:59,970
+أولا بأصول وخلايا وتفاصيل جسم الآكل من جسم المأكول
+
+343
+00:35:59,970 --> 00:36:04,960
+هذا من ناحية العلم من ناحية العلم. ثم سبحانه وتعالى
+
+344
+00:36:04,960 --> 00:36:09,140
+قادر على أن يفصل هذا عن ذاك. فهو على كل شيء قدير.
+
+345
+00:36:09,400 --> 00:36:14,800
+هكذا. يمكن لنا أن نجيب مثل هذا المتغطرس الذي قد
+
+346
+00:36:14,800 --> 00:36:20,020
+يفاجئنا مثلا بمثل هذه التساؤلات التي تتوارد وهي
+
+347
+00:36:20,020 --> 00:36:24,760
+أسئلة شيطانية افتراضية أحيانا يفترضها بعض البشر
+
+348
+00:36:24,760 --> 00:36:29,000
+نكتفي بهذا القدر أقول قول هذا وأستغفر الله لي ولكم
+
+349
+00:36:29,000 --> 00:36:31,840
+والسلام عليكم ورحمة الله وبركاته. 
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/s0G8gp0um2E_postprocess.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/s0G8gp0um2E_postprocess.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..db6e292aaf85635ea0507b05f62dfc16c83e613b
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/s0G8gp0um2E_postprocess.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,1856 @@
+1
+00:00:21,360 --> 00:00:25,000
+أعوذ بالله السميع العلي من الشيطان الرجيم بسم الله
+
+2
+00:00:25,000 --> 00:00:30,080
+الرحمن الرحيم الحمد لله رب العالمين وأصلي وأصلم
+
+3
+00:00:30,080 --> 00:00:33,840
+على رسول الله الأمين محمد بن عبد الله الصادق
+
+4
+00:00:33,840 --> 00:00:37,760
+الأمين صلى الله عليه وعلى آله وصحبه وسلم أجمعين
+
+5
+00:00:37,760 --> 00:00:42,180
+اللهم لا سهل إلا ما جعلته سهل وأنت تجعل الحزن إن
+
+6
+00:00:42,180 --> 00:00:46,320
+شئت سهل اللهم علمنا ماينفعنا وانفعنا بما علمتنا
+
+7
+00:00:46,320 --> 00:00:51,300
+وزدنا علما إنك أنت العليم الحكيم وبعدموضوعنا اليوم
+
+8
+00:00:51,300 --> 00:00:55,760
+صفات النبوة ووظائفها نبدأ بمشيئة الله في صفات
+
+9
+00:00:55,760 --> 00:01:01,140
+الرسل والأنبياء صفات الرسل والأنبياء فقد هي الله
+
+10
+00:01:01,140 --> 00:01:07,920
+تبارك وتعالى أنبياءه ومرسليه بصفات تليق بهم فهم
+
+11
+00:01:07,920 --> 00:01:13,340
+حملت وحيه سبحانه وتعالى إلى خلقه وبالتالي زودهم
+
+12
+00:01:13,340 --> 00:01:17,640
+الله تبارك وتعالى بصفات نبيلةسنتعرف عليها إن شاء
+
+13
+00:01:17,640 --> 00:01:22,200
+الله من خلال هذا اللقاء واللقاء القادم بحول الله
+
+14
+00:01:22,200 --> 00:01:27,760
+تبارك وتعالى فالرسالة الوحي الذي أوحاه الله تبارك
+
+15
+00:01:27,760 --> 00:01:32,440
+وتعالى لأنبيائه ومرسليه هذا يدل على حكمة الله
+
+16
+00:01:32,440 --> 00:01:37,000
+تبارك وتعالى فالله عز وجل لا يوحي لأي أحد من الناس
+
+17
+00:01:37,000 --> 00:01:42,720
+كما قال سبحانه وتعالى الله أعلم حيث يجعل رسالته
+
+18
+00:01:43,360 --> 00:01:48,420
+فلذلك الأنبياء والمرسلون تأميزهم الله تبارك وتعالى
+
+19
+00:01:48,420 --> 00:01:54,940
+بصفات ليكونوا أهلا لهذا الإختصاص الإلهي الذي يفوق
+
+20
+00:01:54,940 --> 00:01:59,980
+كل اختصاص اختصهم بالوحي والكشف عن أسرار علم الله
+
+21
+00:01:59,980 --> 00:02:05,960
+تبارك وتعالى وحمل هداية الله إلى الناس لذلك تنقسم
+
+22
+00:02:05,960 --> 00:02:11,050
+صفات الأنبياء والمرسلين إلى نوعينصفات خلقية وصفات
+
+23
+00:02:11,050 --> 00:02:16,710
+خلقية سنعالج في هذا اللقاء القسم الأول منها الصفات
+
+24
+00:02:16,710 --> 00:02:23,890
+الخلقية ونقصد بها البشرية والذكورة والحرية
+
+25
+00:02:23,890 --> 00:02:30,950
+والسلامة من الأمراض والعيوب والنقائص المنفرة إذا
+
+26
+00:02:30,950 --> 00:02:35,830
+نبدأ في أول صفة من صفات الأنبياء وهي البشرية
+
+27
+00:02:36,580 --> 00:02:41,720
+فالأنبياء بشر خلقهم الله تبارك وتعالى مننا أرسل
+
+28
+00:02:41,720 --> 00:02:47,280
+لنا سبحانه وتعالى واحدا مننا النبي لا يعدوا كونه
+
+29
+00:02:47,280 --> 00:02:52,620
+بشر صريح هذا الأمر في القرآن الكريم قل إنما أنا
+
+30
+00:02:52,620 --> 00:02:58,320
+بشر مثلكميوحى إليه. لا فرق بيننا وبين أي نبي من
+
+31
+00:02:58,320 --> 00:03:03,920
+الأنبياء. الا انه سبحانه وتعالى يوحى إليه ولا يوحى
+
+32
+00:03:03,920 --> 00:03:07,860
+الله عز وجل إليه ولا يوحي إلينا. هو يوحى إليه ونحن
+
+33
+00:03:07,860 --> 00:03:14,240
+لا يوحى إلينا.وهذا مصداق قول الله تبارك وتعالى لقد
+
+34
+00:03:14,240 --> 00:03:20,340
+جاءكم رسول من أنفسكم عزيز عليه ما عندتم حريص عليكم
+
+35
+00:03:20,340 --> 00:03:26,020
+بالمؤمنين رؤوف الرحيم لو تدبرنا هذه الآية سنجد أن
+
+36
+00:03:26,020 --> 00:03:31,820
+الله تبارك وتعالى يمتن بها علينا أن أرسل لنا رسول
+
+37
+00:03:31,820 --> 00:03:40,600
+من أنفسنا جاءكم رسول من أنفسكم عزيزعليه ما عندتم
+
+38
+00:03:40,600 --> 00:03:46,240
+هنا الشاهد من أنفسكم يعني بشر مثلنا حتى أن
+
+39
+00:03:46,240 --> 00:03:51,420
+الأنبياء كلهم وما أرسلنا قبلك من المرسلين إلا إنهم
+
+40
+00:03:51,420 --> 00:03:57,540
+لا يأكلون الطعام مثلنا مثلنا ويمشون في الأسواق
+
+41
+00:03:57,540 --> 00:04:02,040
+ويمشون في الأسواق والذي يأكل الطعام يحتاج إلى
+
+42
+00:04:02,040 --> 00:04:07,110
+الحمام إلى قضاء الحاجة فهو لا يعد كونه بشرلا يخرج
+
+43
+00:04:07,110 --> 00:04:13,650
+عن كونه بشر ويمشي في الأسواق بمعنى يعني يلتقط أو
+
+44
+00:04:13,650 --> 00:04:18,530
+يفتش أو يبحث عن أسباب الرزق أو الطعام أو الشراب أو
+
+45
+00:04:18,530 --> 00:04:24,670
+مستلزمات الحياة البشرية، إذا فهو إنسان بشر من لحم
+
+46
+00:04:24,670 --> 00:04:32,030
+وعظم ودم يحتاج أن يأكل ويشربوهذا ثابت للأنبياء
+
+47
+00:04:32,030 --> 00:04:37,410
+جميعا بصورة واضحة من خلال ما ذكرنا، هم بشر إذا، هم
+
+48
+00:04:37,410 --> 00:04:42,270
+لا يخرجوا عن كونهم بشر، يترتب على كونهم بشر عدة
+
+49
+00:04:42,270 --> 00:04:47,550
+أمور يا أخواتي، عدة أمور، أولها مادام أنهم بشر،
+
+50
+00:04:47,550 --> 00:04:54,070
+إذا هم جسدا يحتاجون لما يحتاج اليه البشر من الطعام
+
+51
+00:04:54,070 --> 00:05:01,570
+والشراب،لهم أجسام وهذا الجسم هذا الجسد يحتاج إلى
+
+52
+00:05:01,570 --> 00:05:07,390
+الطعام والشراب بل هم يحدثون كما يحدث البشر لأن ذلك
+
+53
+00:05:07,390 --> 00:05:11,090
+من لوازم الطعام والشراب بمعنى أنهم يحتاجون إلى
+
+54
+00:05:11,090 --> 00:05:16,290
+الحمام يحتاجون إلى قضاء الحاجة هم تماما كالبشر وما
+
+55
+00:05:16,290 --> 00:05:21,590
+أرسلنا قبلك إلا رجال نوحي إليهم هم رجال هم بشر هم
+
+56
+00:05:21,590 --> 00:05:25,920
+من الناس هم من عامة الناسأي نعم، فاسألوا أهل الذكر
+
+57
+00:05:25,920 --> 00:05:32,840
+إن كنتم لا تعلمون وما جعلناهم جسدا لا
+
+58
+00:05:32,840 --> 00:05:38,120
+يأكلون الطعام، الآية مفهومة وما جعلناهم جسدا، يعني
+
+59
+00:05:38,120 --> 00:05:44,500
+المقصود أننا جعلناهم جسدا يأكلون الطعاموما كانوا
+
+60
+00:05:44,500 --> 00:05:49,620
+خالدين مثلهم مثل البشر كتب الله عز وجل عليهم الموت
+
+61
+00:05:49,620 --> 00:05:55,660
+كما سيأتي بمشيئة الله تبارك وتعالى أيضا يترتب على
+
+62
+00:05:55,660 --> 00:06:03,000
+كونهم بشر أنهم ولدوا كما يولد البشر بمعنى أن لهم
+
+63
+00:06:03,000 --> 00:06:10,840
+أباء وأمهات وأعمام وعمات وأخوال وخالات هم يتزوجون
+
+64
+00:06:10,840 --> 00:06:18,000
+ويولد لهمولقد أرسلنا رسلا من قبلك وجعلنا لهم
+
+65
+00:06:18,000 --> 00:06:25,920
+أزواجا وذرية لهم أزواج وذرية بنين وبنات وهذا مكان
+
+66
+00:06:25,920 --> 00:06:32,730
+لنبينا وإخوانه من الأنبياء الذين سبقوه فهم بشرلهم
+
+67
+00:06:32,730 --> 00:06:37,190
+أباء وأمهات ونسب النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم معلوم
+
+68
+00:06:37,190 --> 00:06:44,150
+وأمه معلومة وأعمامه وعماته وأخواله وخالاته فهو
+
+69
+00:06:44,150 --> 00:06:50,700
+مثله مثل باقي البشر وكذلك باقي الأنبياءجيم أنهم
+
+70
+00:06:50,700 --> 00:06:55,560
+يصيبهم ما يصيب البشر من أعراض، طالما أنه بشر، إذا
+
+71
+00:06:55,560 --> 00:07:03,280
+هو ينام الواحد منهم ويقوم يصح ويمرض، فهم يمرضون
+
+72
+00:07:04,340 --> 00:07:07,900
+ويأتي عليهم ما يأتي على البشر، حتى الموت، حتى
+
+73
+00:07:07,900 --> 00:07:11,860
+الموت، يأتي على الأنبياء، قال تعالى في حق إبراهيم
+
+74
+00:07:11,860 --> 00:07:15,720
+عليه السلام على لسان إبراهيم، والذي هو يطعمني
+
+75
+00:07:15,720 --> 00:07:21,300
+ويسقين، وإذا مرضته فهو يشفين، والذي يميتني ثم
+
+76
+00:07:21,300 --> 00:07:26,190
+يحيينقال الله عز وجل لعبده ورسوله محمد صلى الله
+
+77
+00:07:26,190 --> 00:07:33,230
+عليه وسلم إنك ميت وإنهم ميتون وهذه سنة الله في
+
+78
+00:07:33,230 --> 00:07:39,670
+أنبيائه بل في خلقه جميعا وما محمد إلا رسول قد خلت
+
+79
+00:07:39,670 --> 00:07:45,360
+من قبله الرسل أفإن مات؟أو قتلا قلبتم على أعقابكم
+
+80
+00:07:45,360 --> 00:07:51,060
+ومن ينقلب على عقباه فليه ضر الله شيئا و سيجذ الله
+
+81
+00:07:51,060 --> 00:07:56,620
+الشاكرين إذا هذه كلها من مقتضيات البشرية فهم بشر
+
+82
+00:07:56,620 --> 00:08:05,360
+إذا تحصل لهم هذه الأمور ثم هم يتعرضون للبلاء بل هم
+
+83
+00:08:05,360 --> 00:08:09,540
+أشد الناس ابتلاءكما ذكر النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم
+
+84
+00:08:09,540 --> 00:08:14,720
+في الحديث الصحيح عن سعد رضي الله عنهم قلت يا رسول
+
+85
+00:08:14,720 --> 00:08:19,240
+الله أي ناس أشد بلاء؟ قال الأنبياء ثم الأمثل
+
+86
+00:08:19,240 --> 00:08:24,590
+فالأمثلالأنبياء الشاهد هنا في قول النبي صلى الله
+
+87
+00:08:24,590 --> 00:08:29,350
+عليه وسلم الأنبياء فهم أشد الناس ابتلاء يبتلى
+
+88
+00:08:29,350 --> 00:08:34,190
+الرجل على قدر دينه يبتلى الرجل على حسب دينه فإن
+
+89
+00:08:34,190 --> 00:08:41,150
+كان دينه صلبا اشتد بلاءه والأنبياء أشدوا أو أصلبوا
+
+90
+00:08:41,150 --> 00:08:46,350
+الناس إيمانا وأصدقهم يقينا وبالتالي هم أشدوا الناس
+
+91
+00:08:46,350 --> 00:08:53,480
+ابتلاءوإن كان في دينه رقة ابتلي على حسب دينه فما
+
+92
+00:08:53,480 --> 00:08:57,500
+يبرح البلاء بالعبد حتى يتركه يمشي على الأرض ما
+
+93
+00:08:57,500 --> 00:09:03,080
+عليه خطيئة إذا الأنبياء أيضا يتعرضون للبلاء مثلهم
+
+94
+00:09:03,080 --> 00:09:11,160
+مثل باقي البشر أيضا يترتب على كونهم بشر أنهم
+
+95
+00:09:11,160 --> 00:09:18,310
+يعملون بأعمال البشر يمتهنون المهن لكل نبي مهنةأولا
+
+96
+00:09:18,310 --> 00:09:21,330
+ما من نبي كما ذكر النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم إلا
+
+97
+00:09:21,330 --> 00:09:26,450
+وراع الغنم فنبينا في مقتبل حياته راع الغنم صلى
+
+98
+00:09:26,450 --> 00:09:30,570
+الله عليه وسلم ثم عمل في التجارة في مال خديجة
+
+99
+00:09:30,570 --> 00:09:36,350
+رضوان الله عليها وداود عليه السلام كان حدادا كما
+
+100
+00:09:36,350 --> 00:09:40,190
+قال سبحانه وتعالى عنه وعلمناه صنع تلبوس لكم
+
+101
+00:09:40,190 --> 00:09:47,160
+لتحصنكم من بأسكم فهل أنتم شاكرون كان الحديدطيعا
+
+102
+00:09:47,160 --> 00:09:52,320
+بين يديه فيصنع منه الدروع عليه الصلاة والسلام هذا
+
+103
+00:09:52,320 --> 00:09:57,380
+داود عليه السلام وكان زكريا نجارا كما ثبت ذلك في
+
+104
+00:09:57,380 --> 00:10:01,820
+صحيح مسلم وكان نوح عليه السلام نجارا فقد صنع
+
+105
+00:10:01,820 --> 00:10:07,620
+السفينة وكان إدريس عليه السلام حياكا بمعنى خياط
+
+106
+00:10:07,620 --> 00:10:12,080
+وكان إبراهيم عليه السلام قماشا يعني يبيع القماش
+
+107
+00:10:12,080 --> 00:10:19,630
+يبيع القماشو موسى عليه السلام رعى الغنم، كان يرعى
+
+108
+00:10:19,630 --> 00:10:24,550
+الغنم، يعمل في رعي الغنم و شعيب كذلك و صالح كذلك
+
+109
+00:10:24,550 --> 00:10:36,090
+فكل نبي له مهنة من المهن و الياسع كان نساجايعني
+
+110
+00:10:36,090 --> 00:10:40,690
+يعمل في النسيج يعمل في صناعة النسيج و هكذا
+
+111
+00:10:40,690 --> 00:10:45,150
+فالأنبياء يعملون بأعمال البشر لأنهم هم في الأول و
+
+112
+00:10:45,150 --> 00:10:51,010
+الأخر هم أصلا بشر يحتاجون إلى الاقتساب و الارتزاق
+
+113
+00:10:51,010 --> 00:10:58,450
+و هنا نعرض إلى شبهة و نرد عليها المشركون كانوا قد
+
+114
+00:10:58,450 --> 00:11:03,990
+اقترحوا كان لهم رأي في أن لو كان الأنبياء و
+
+115
+00:11:03,990 --> 00:11:10,020
+المرسلينلو كان الأنبياء والمرسلون من الملائكة
+
+116
+00:11:10,020 --> 00:11:15,540
+وليسوا من البشر أو أن النبي الرسول البشري يكون معه
+
+117
+00:11:15,540 --> 00:11:19,820
+ملكا وهذا مصداق قول الله عز و جل وقال الذين لا
+
+118
+00:11:19,820 --> 00:11:24,440
+يرجون لقاءنا يعني لا يؤمنون بالآخرة لو لا أنزل
+
+119
+00:11:24,440 --> 00:11:30,820
+علينا الملائكة بل لما يكون المرسل إلينابشر ليكن
+
+120
+00:11:30,820 --> 00:11:36,160
+ملاكا أو نرى ربنا وقالوا ما لهذا الرسول يأكل
+
+121
+00:11:36,160 --> 00:11:41,180
+الطعام ويمشي في الأسواق أمر عجيب لا يصلح في نظرهم
+
+122
+00:11:41,180 --> 00:11:45,620
+أنه يأكل الطعام زينا زيه ويمشي في الأسواق و بعدين
+
+123
+00:11:45,620 --> 00:11:52,140
+يرسل إلينا لو لا أنزل إليه ملك فيكون معه نذيرة فهم
+
+124
+00:11:52,140 --> 00:11:59,830
+يقترحون أن يكون ملكا مرسل مع هذا النبي البشريهذه
+
+125
+00:11:59,830 --> 00:12:04,750
+حقيقة شبهة تحتاج إلى رد والرد في غاية السهولة في
+
+126
+00:12:04,750 --> 00:12:10,290
+غاية السهولة هذه شبهة يعني ضعيفة متهالكة لا تقف
+
+127
+00:12:10,290 --> 00:12:15,490
+أمام الردود العلمية التي يمكن أن نقول أولها أن
+
+128
+00:12:15,490 --> 00:12:20,150
+الله تبارك وتعالى لما اختارهم لما اختار الأنبياء
+
+129
+00:12:20,150 --> 00:12:25,210
+والمرسلين بشرا لا ملائكة لأن ذلك أعظم في الإبتلاء
+
+130
+00:12:25,210 --> 00:12:29,540
+والاختباركما قال نبينا صلى الله عليه وسلم في
+
+131
+00:12:29,540 --> 00:12:35,320
+الحديث الذي يرويه مسلم إنما بعثتك لأبتليك وأبتلي
+
+132
+00:12:35,320 --> 00:12:41,180
+بك إنما بعثتك هذا في هذا حديث قدسي الله عز وجل
+
+133
+00:12:41,180 --> 00:12:46,460
+يقول في هذا الحديث إنما بعثتك لأبتليك وأبتلي بك
+
+134
+00:12:46,460 --> 00:12:52,880
+الحديث من شطرين لأبتليك لغايتين لحكمتينكان النبي
+
+135
+00:12:52,880 --> 00:12:57,900
+من البشر لغايتين لهدفين لحكمتين الحكمة الأولى
+
+136
+00:12:57,900 --> 00:13:02,680
+لابتليك هذا ابتلاء من الله عز وجل للنبي لكل نبي
+
+137
+00:13:02,680 --> 00:13:09,620
+لكل نبي ان هل يصبر هل يجاهد في سبيل الله هل سيبلغ
+
+138
+00:13:09,620 --> 00:13:15,700
+رسالة الله تبارك وتعالى كما هي وابتلاء لمن أرسل
+
+139
+00:13:15,700 --> 00:13:22,950
+إليهم وابتلي بكأبتلي بك فمنهم من يظهر إيمانه ويخلص
+
+140
+00:13:22,950 --> 00:13:27,930
+في طاعته سيطيع هذا النبي ويؤمن به ويتبعه ومنهم من
+
+141
+00:13:27,930 --> 00:13:35,150
+يتخلف وينابذ بالعدوى والكفر والنفاقبعثتك لأبتليك
+
+142
+00:13:35,150 --> 00:13:39,650
+وأبتلي بك هذه الحكمة الأولى أن الأنبياء والمرسلين
+
+143
+00:13:39,650 --> 00:13:44,750
+كانوا بشرًا الحكمة الثانية أن في هذا إكرامًا لمن
+
+144
+00:13:44,750 --> 00:13:48,870
+سبقت لهم من الحسنة الله عز وجل لا يسأل عن ما يفعل
+
+145
+00:13:48,870 --> 00:13:53,530
+يا أخواتي الله عندما يرسل واحدًا من خلقه أو يبعث
+
+146
+00:13:53,530 --> 00:13:58,810
+واحدًا من خلقه إنما هذا إكرام لهذا الشخص هو إكرام
+
+147
+00:13:58,810 --> 00:14:04,510
+والله عز وجل لا يسأل عن ما يفعل وهم يسألونفهؤلاء
+
+148
+00:14:04,510 --> 00:14:07,670
+الله عز وجل تفضل عليهم الأنبياء والمرسلين، هم صفوة
+
+149
+00:14:07,670 --> 00:14:12,390
+الله من خلقه، وهم أعرف بالله تبارك وتعالى بربهم،
+
+150
+00:14:12,390 --> 00:14:16,790
+أعرف الناس بربهم تبارك وتعالى، قال تعالى أولئك
+
+151
+00:14:16,790 --> 00:14:22,130
+الذين أنعم الله عليهم، الشاهد في كلمة أنعمأولئك
+
+152
+00:14:22,130 --> 00:14:26,330
+الذين أنعم الله عليهم هؤلاء الله عز وجل أكرمهم هذا
+
+153
+00:14:26,330 --> 00:14:31,010
+إكرام من الله عز وجل أنعم الله عليهم من النبيين من
+
+154
+00:14:31,010 --> 00:14:35,990
+ذرية آدم ومن من حملنا معنوح ومن ذرية إبراهيم
+
+155
+00:14:35,990 --> 00:14:41,370
+وإسرائيل ومن من هدينا واجتبينا إذا هذا هو الرد
+
+156
+00:14:41,370 --> 00:14:47,030
+الثاني على كون الأنبياء المرسلين من البشر وليس
+
+157
+00:14:47,890 --> 00:14:54,270
+ملائكة الأمر الثالث وهذه حقيقة قوية أن البشر أقدر
+
+158
+00:14:54,270 --> 00:14:59,990
+على القيادة والتوجيه وهم الذين يصلحون قدوة وأسوة
+
+159
+00:14:59,990 --> 00:15:06,690
+يصلحون أن نتأثى بهم ونقتدي بهم لذلك فأولئك فبهدهم
+
+160
+00:15:06,690 --> 00:15:09,750
+اقتده الله تبارك وتعالى عن الأنبياء والمرسلين
+
+161
+00:15:09,750 --> 00:15:15,350
+جميعا قال فبهدهم اقتده اقتدي بهم اقتدي بهم وفي
+
+162
+00:15:15,350 --> 00:15:21,060
+نبينا قال لقد كان لكم فيرسول الله، أسوة الحسنة،
+
+163
+00:15:21,060 --> 00:15:25,820
+فهو منكم، لاحظي، هو منكم، هو واحد منكم، يشعر
+
+164
+00:15:25,820 --> 00:15:30,840
+بمشاعركم، يشعر بما تشعرون به، يجد ما تجدون، يحس
+
+165
+00:15:30,840 --> 00:15:36,680
+بما تحسون، يتكلف بما تتكلفونوبالتالي هو يراعي
+
+166
+00:15:36,680 --> 00:15:42,620
+أحوالكم، يراعي ما تجدون، يراعي طبيعة خلقكم، يراعي
+
+167
+00:15:42,620 --> 00:15:48,760
+أطماحكم، يراعي معاناتكم، يراعي قدراتكم، ما
+
+168
+00:15:48,760 --> 00:15:54,570
+تستطيعونه وما لا تستطيعونه، لو لم يكن النبيبشرا لو
+
+169
+00:15:54,570 --> 00:15:58,890
+كان يعني ملاكا كما يقترحون فالملك من جنس آخر بل من
+
+170
+00:15:58,890 --> 00:16:03,010
+خلق آخر كما قال النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم في الحديث
+
+171
+00:16:03,010 --> 00:16:09,250
+اللي ترويه السيد عائشة خلقت الملائكة من نوروخلق
+
+172
+00:16:09,250 --> 00:16:16,170
+الجهنم من مارج من نار وخلق آدم مما وصف لكم وخلق من
+
+173
+00:16:16,170 --> 00:16:21,170
+طين فنحن مخلوقين من طين كلكم لآدم و آدم من تراب
+
+174
+00:16:21,170 --> 00:16:25,790
+نحن مخلوقين من طين والملائك مخلوقة من نور جنس آخر
+
+175
+00:16:25,790 --> 00:16:30,670
+عالم آخر تماما يختلف لا يشعرون بما نشعر وقدراتهم
+
+176
+00:16:30,670 --> 00:16:35,350
+تفوق قدرات البشر عموما بأكثر بكثير لا نستطيع ولا
+
+177
+00:16:35,350 --> 00:16:40,890
+نطيقما تطيقه الملائكة. هم عالم آخر تماما. وبالتالي
+
+178
+00:16:40,890 --> 00:16:47,290
+لا يشعرون بما نشعر. فلذلك النبي اقدر على القيادة
+
+179
+00:16:47,290 --> 00:16:52,510
+وعلى التوجيه. ثم امر الرابع وهو صعوبة رؤية
+
+180
+00:16:52,510 --> 00:16:56,850
+الملائكة. صعوبة رؤية الملائكة. فالكفار عندما
+
+181
+00:16:56,850 --> 00:17:01,250
+يقترحون رؤية الملائكة وان يكون الرسل عليهم السلام
+
+182
+00:17:01,250 --> 00:17:06,740
+الينا ملائكة حقيقة لا يدركون طبيعة الملائكة.ولا
+
+183
+00:17:06,740 --> 00:17:10,840
+يعلمون مدى المشقة والعناء الذي سيلحق بالإنسان من
+
+184
+00:17:10,840 --> 00:17:17,080
+جراء ذلك، فرؤية الملك أمر ليس بالسهل، فالرسول مع
+
+185
+00:17:17,080 --> 00:17:26,070
+كونه أفضل الخلق، وهو على جانب عظيم من القوةالجسمية
+
+186
+00:17:26,070 --> 00:17:31,610
+والنفسية عندما رأى جبريل على صورته أصابه هول عظيم
+
+187
+00:17:31,610 --> 00:17:37,830
+ورجع إلى منزله يرتجف زملوني زملوني دثروني دثروني
+
+188
+00:17:37,830 --> 00:17:44,990
+إني خشيت على نفسي أمر مهول يقول النبي يخبر النبي
+
+189
+00:17:44,990 --> 00:17:49,250
+أنه لما رأى للوهلة الأولى لما رأى جبريل قاعد على
+
+190
+00:17:49,250 --> 00:17:55,540
+كرسيه بين السماء والأرض لم تستطع قدماهصلى الله
+
+191
+00:17:55,540 --> 00:18:00,160
+عليه وسلم الشريفتين حمله بيقول فخشيت على نفسي
+
+192
+00:18:00,160 --> 00:18:05,480
+فهويت على الأرض فهويت على الأرض فرؤيت الملك ليس
+
+193
+00:18:05,480 --> 00:18:10,320
+بالأمر السهل ليس بالأمر السهل ثم لو شئت أن أضيف
+
+194
+00:18:10,320 --> 00:18:17,640
+نقطة خامسةفي كون الرسول أو النبي هو من البشر هذا
+
+195
+00:18:17,640 --> 00:18:23,520
+يثبت أن ما نؤمر به من التكاليف يستطيعها البشر
+
+196
+00:18:23,520 --> 00:18:30,440
+وبالتالييكون لنا في ذلك أسوأ أن نقتدي به ونعمل بما
+
+197
+00:18:30,440 --> 00:18:35,760
+عمل به هذا البشر، هذا النبي البشري. لو كان ملاكا
+
+198
+00:18:35,760 --> 00:18:41,220
+طاقته فوق طاقتنا. وبالتالي لن استطيع أن نجاريه أو
+
+199
+00:18:41,220 --> 00:18:46,000
+أن نفعل ما يفعله. لكن هذا يثبت أن الله عز وجل لما
+
+200
+00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:51,840
+كلفنا كلفنا وجعل لنا نموذج واحدة مننا يفعل أمامنا
+
+201
+00:18:51,840 --> 00:18:57,100
+ثم نحن ايه نقتدي به.هذه صفة من صفات الأنبياء
+
+202
+00:18:57,100 --> 00:19:01,840
+والمرسلين وهي البشرية الصفة الثانية الذكورة
+
+203
+00:19:01,840 --> 00:19:05,260
+الذكورة
+
+204
+00:19:05,260 --> 00:19:12,840
+فالله عز وجل شاءت إرادته أن تكون النبوة والرسالة
+
+205
+00:19:12,840 --> 00:19:17,480
+فقط في الرجال دون النساء وهذا ما ذهب اليه جمهور
+
+206
+00:19:17,480 --> 00:19:24,310
+العلماء أن الذكورة شرط في النبوة والرسالةفلا تكون
+
+207
+00:19:24,310 --> 00:19:29,110
+النبوة والرسالة لأنثى ولم يختر الله سبحانه وتعالى
+
+208
+00:19:29,110 --> 00:19:36,230
+من رسوله وأنبيائه من النساء أحد قال تعالى هذا من
+
+209
+00:19:36,230 --> 00:19:42,230
+أدلة الجمهور وما أرسلنا قبلك إلا رجالا نوحي إليهم
+
+210
+00:19:42,230 --> 00:19:50,310
+إلا رجالا قال تعالى ولو جعلناه ملكا لجعلناه رجلا
+
+211
+00:19:51,170 --> 00:19:55,350
+ولا لبسن عليهم ما يلبسون فالنبوة في رأي الجمهور
+
+212
+00:19:55,350 --> 00:20:01,430
+محصورة في الرجال دون النساء وهذا لحكم ليس اعتباطا
+
+213
+00:20:01,430 --> 00:20:07,450
+تعالى الله عن ذلك علوا كبيرة فالله من أسمائه
+
+214
+00:20:07,450 --> 00:20:12,130
+الحكيم فهو ذو حكمة سبحانه وتعالى وبالتأكيد هذا
+
+215
+00:20:12,130 --> 00:20:18,480
+الأمراختياره سبحانه وتعالى للنبوة والرسالة أن تكون
+
+216
+00:20:18,480 --> 00:20:23,860
+في الرجال دون النساء هذا لحكمة أو لحكم منها أن
+
+217
+00:20:23,860 --> 00:20:28,780
+الرسالة تقتضي الاشتهار بالدعوة ومخاطبة الرجال
+
+218
+00:20:28,780 --> 00:20:33,600
+والنساء ومقابلة الناس في السر والعلن والتنقل في
+
+219
+00:20:33,600 --> 00:20:40,640
+فجاج الأرضومواجهة المكذبين ومحاججتهم ومخاصمتهم
+
+220
+00:20:40,640 --> 00:20:48,360
+وإعداد الجيوش وقيادتها كل هذا لا يتناسب مع النساء
+
+221
+00:20:48,360 --> 00:20:52,460
+إنما يتناسب مع الرجال لذلك كانت النبوة في الرجال
+
+222
+00:20:52,460 --> 00:20:58,740
+دون النساء ثم أمر آخر الرسالة تقتضي قوامة الرجل
+
+223
+00:20:58,740 --> 00:21:08,530
+على من يتابعه والقوامة مسئوليةفهو في أتباعه النبي
+
+224
+00:21:08,530 --> 00:21:12,890
+أو الرسول هو الأمر الناهي هو بمثابة رئيس الدولة
+
+225
+00:21:12,890 --> 00:21:19,330
+فهو الحاكم وهو القاضي لو كانت هذه الأمور لو كانت
+
+226
+00:21:19,330 --> 00:21:26,450
+النبوة أو الرسالة موكلة إلى امرأة بالتأكيد سيستنكف
+
+227
+00:21:26,450 --> 00:21:35,260
+كثير من الرجال عن اتباع هذه النبيةهذا فطرة الرجال
+
+228
+00:21:35,260 --> 00:21:42,600
+عليه هذا أمر الرجال مفطورون عليه سيقولون هكذا هذا
+
+229
+00:21:42,600 --> 00:21:49,680
+ما تبقى ان نتبع امرأة لكن النساء كل النساء لا
+
+230
+00:21:49,680 --> 00:21:56,100
+يقولن مثل هذا القول بفطرة ان يقبلن ان يكونن تابعات
+
+231
+00:21:56,100 --> 00:22:02,220
+لإيه لنبي رسول من البشر او من الرجال اما الأمر
+
+232
+00:22:02,220 --> 00:22:08,190
+الثالثوهو أن الذكورة أكمل كما ذكرنا ولذلك جعل الله
+
+233
+00:22:08,190 --> 00:22:12,870
+القوام للرجال على النساء حتى في المؤسسة الصغيرة
+
+234
+00:22:12,870 --> 00:22:18,990
+احنا كنا بنتكلم عن مؤسسة الدولة مؤسسة الدولة هنا
+
+235
+00:22:18,990 --> 00:22:26,610
+حتى المؤسسة الصغيرة الرجال قوامون على النساءالرجال
+
+236
+00:22:26,610 --> 00:22:32,050
+قوامون على النساء وقد أعطى الله عز وجل هذه القوامة
+
+237
+00:22:32,050 --> 00:22:38,690
+للرجال دون النساء أيضا لحكمة وبحقين ليس اعتباطا
+
+238
+00:22:38,690 --> 00:22:44,530
+تعالى الله عن ذلك علوا كبيرا الرجال
+
+239
+00:22:44,530 --> 00:22:50,530
+قوامون على النساء بحقين أولا بما فضل الله بعضهم
+
+240
+00:22:50,530 --> 00:22:58,180
+على بعض وثانيا وبما أنفقواوبما أنفقوا، بما فضل
+
+241
+00:22:58,180 --> 00:23:02,740
+الله بعضهم على بعض، فالله عز وجل فضل الرجال
+
+242
+00:23:02,740 --> 00:23:08,540
+بالقدرة على التحكم في القرار، الحكمة في إصدار
+
+243
+00:23:08,540 --> 00:23:14,560
+القرار، التروي، الصبر، الجلد على المحن، بما فضل
+
+244
+00:23:14,560 --> 00:23:19,960
+الله بعضهم على بعضوبما أنفقوا فأنا أتكلم عن
+
+245
+00:23:19,960 --> 00:23:23,840
+المؤسسة الصغيرة فالرجل هو الذي دفع المهر وهو الذي
+
+246
+00:23:23,840 --> 00:23:30,960
+جهز البيت وبالتالي الله تعالى أعطاه الحق في قيادة
+
+247
+00:23:30,960 --> 00:23:35,500
+هذه المؤسسة الرجال قوامون على النساء وقد أخبر
+
+248
+00:23:35,500 --> 00:23:39,020
+النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم من جانب آخر أن النساء
+
+249
+00:23:39,020 --> 00:23:44,530
+ناقصات عقل ودينوهذا الحديث الذي ترويه السيد عائشة
+
+250
+00:23:44,530 --> 00:23:48,770
+رضوان الله عليه يجب أن نفهمه على وجه الصحيح ناقصات
+
+251
+00:23:48,770 --> 00:23:55,450
+عقل ودين ناقصات عقل ودين ناقصات عقل فهي تحتاج في
+
+252
+00:23:55,450 --> 00:24:04,650
+الشهادة إلى أخرى تذكرها إن نسيت فغالبا المرأة تنسى
+
+253
+00:24:04,650 --> 00:24:11,050
+ناقصات عقل ودين ونقص في الدين المقصود به أن المرأة
+
+254
+00:24:12,010 --> 00:24:19,910
+ينتابها في شهرها فترة الدورة الشهرية وبالتالي لا
+
+255
+00:24:19,910 --> 00:24:25,350
+تصوم ولا تصلي وهذا هو نقص الدين هذا هو النقص الدين
+
+256
+00:24:25,350 --> 00:24:30,270
+بخلاف الرجال الذين يؤدون الصلاوات والصيام على
+
+257
+00:24:30,270 --> 00:24:36,110
+الوجه الأكمل الأمر الرابع والذي نبين من خلاله أن
+
+258
+00:24:37,000 --> 00:24:41,140
+نبين من خلال حكمة الله عز وجل في كون النبوة
+
+259
+00:24:41,140 --> 00:24:45,780
+والرسالة في الرجال دون النساء أن المرأة يطرأ عليها
+
+260
+00:24:45,780 --> 00:24:50,300
+ما يعطلها عن كثير من الوظائف والمهمات كالحيض
+
+261
+00:24:50,300 --> 00:24:56,460
+والحمل والولادة والنفاس وهذا أمر مشهود ومعروف
+
+262
+00:24:56,460 --> 00:25:04,220
+وتصاحب هذه الحالات اضطرابات نفسية وآلام وأوجاع فلو
+
+263
+00:25:04,220 --> 00:25:10,450
+كانت المرأة نبيةكيف ستقوم بمهام الدعوة إلى الله عز
+
+264
+00:25:10,450 --> 00:25:17,910
+وجل والخطبة في الرجال يوم الجمعة والجلوس إلى مجالس
+
+265
+00:25:17,910 --> 00:25:22,350
+القضاء واعداد الجيوش ومقابلة الصفراء والكثير من
+
+266
+00:25:22,350 --> 00:25:26,430
+المهام التي يقوم بها النبي فهو بمثابة كما قلنا
+
+267
+00:25:26,430 --> 00:25:32,970
+رئيس دولة بل النبوة أعلى وأسمى من كل الرئاسات
+
+268
+00:25:32,970 --> 00:25:38,640
+فلذلك لهذه الحكم الأربعةكانت النبوة في الرجال دون
+
+269
+00:25:38,640 --> 00:25:43,800
+النساء هذا رأي الجمهور رأي الجمهور أن الله عز وجل
+
+270
+00:25:43,800 --> 00:25:51,320
+لم يبعث نبيه قط لم يبعث نبيه من النساء قط لكن هناك
+
+271
+00:25:51,320 --> 00:25:54,960
+من العلماء من خالف هذا الرأي منهم الإمام الأشعري
+
+272
+00:25:54,960 --> 00:26:00,140
+وهو علي بن إسماعيل الأشعري عليه رحمة الله والإمام
+
+273
+00:26:00,140 --> 00:26:06,130
+أبو عبد الله القرطبي صاحب كتاب الجامعلأحكام القرآن
+
+274
+00:26:06,130 --> 00:26:12,850
+الكريم وابن حزم الأندلسي هؤلاء لم يشترطوا الذكورة
+
+275
+00:26:12,850 --> 00:26:18,910
+في النبوة بل قالوا بنبوة بعض النساء قالوا بنبوة
+
+276
+00:26:18,910 --> 00:26:26,270
+بعض النساء منهن أم موسى أم موسى واستدلوا بقوله
+
+277
+00:26:26,270 --> 00:26:32,230
+تعالى وأوحينا إلى أم موسىأن أرضعيه فإذا خفت عليه
+
+278
+00:26:32,230 --> 00:26:37,410
+فألقيه في اليم ولا تخافي ولا تحزني إن أردوه إليك
+
+279
+00:26:37,410 --> 00:26:43,550
+وجعلوه من المرسلين وأوحينا إلى أم موسى وكذلك قالوا
+
+280
+00:26:43,550 --> 00:26:50,670
+بنبوة مريم عليه السلام استدلوا بقوله تعالى بخطاب
+
+281
+00:26:50,670 --> 00:26:55,870
+الله للملائكة لمريم وإذ قالت الملائكة يا مريم إن
+
+282
+00:26:55,870 --> 00:27:01,620
+الله اصطفاكوطهرك واصطفاك على نساء العالمين يا مريم
+
+283
+00:27:01,620 --> 00:27:08,840
+اقنطي لربك واسجدي واركعي مع الراكعين يقول هذا
+
+284
+00:27:08,840 --> 00:27:19,700
+الفريق من العلماء بأن أم موسى ومريم هم نبيات وهذا
+
+285
+00:27:19,700 --> 00:27:25,930
+استدلال ضعيففلو تفحصنا وتأملنا هذه الآيات التي
+
+286
+00:27:25,930 --> 00:27:32,350
+استدلوا بها سنجد أن هذا الوحي هو نوع من الإلهام
+
+287
+00:27:32,350 --> 00:27:38,610
+فالوحي في الآية الأولى في حق أم موسى الوحي المسند
+
+288
+00:27:38,610 --> 00:27:42,730
+إلى أم موسى إنما هو بمعنى الإلهام فقط بمعنى
+
+289
+00:27:42,730 --> 00:27:47,310
+الإلهام الله عز وجل ألهمها وأوحينا إلى أم موسى
+
+290
+00:27:47,310 --> 00:27:55,930
+يعني ألهمنا أم موسى أن ترضعهفإذا خافت عليه في حالة
+
+291
+00:27:55,930 --> 00:28:00,970
+الخوف ألقيه في اليوم ألهمها الله تبارك وتعالى هذا
+
+292
+00:28:00,970 --> 00:28:09,810
+إلهام يكون لكثير من المخلوقات حتى أن الله تبارك
+
+293
+00:28:09,810 --> 00:28:14,110
+وتعالى أوحى إلى النحل بنص القرآن الكريم وأوحى ربك
+
+294
+00:28:14,110 --> 00:28:18,650
+إلى النحل هل نقول أن هناك نبوة أو رسالة في النحل
+
+295
+00:28:18,650 --> 00:28:23,900
+بالتأكيد ليس الأمر كذلكفهنا مجرد إلهام ألهم الله
+
+296
+00:28:23,900 --> 00:28:30,660
+عز وجل فطر الله عز وجل الوحي النحل يتخذ من الجبال
+
+297
+00:28:30,660 --> 00:28:36,080
+بيوتا وأوحى ربك إلى النحل بل هذا الوحي قاسم مشترك
+
+298
+00:28:36,080 --> 00:28:41,600
+بين الخلق أنا وأنت قد نعبر أحيانا بهذا اللفظ فأقول
+
+299
+00:28:41,600 --> 00:28:48,750
+والله كنت حائرا بين أمرينووقعت في إشكال واضطربت
+
+300
+00:28:48,750 --> 00:28:53,510
+نفسي وها كذا بينما أنا في حيرتي إذ وكأن الله أوحى
+
+301
+00:28:53,510 --> 00:28:58,550
+إليّ لا أقصد أن جبريل نزل عليّ لا أقصد أن جبريل
+
+302
+00:28:58,550 --> 00:29:04,370
+نزل عليّ إنما المقصود أن الله الهمني لفعل كذا وكذا
+
+303
+00:29:04,370 --> 00:29:11,590
+أما اصطفاء مريم وإرسال جبريل إليها وإن كان فيه شيء
+
+304
+00:29:11,590 --> 00:29:18,240
+من التشريعلأن الآية تقول يا مريم اقنطي لربك واسجدي
+
+305
+00:29:18,240 --> 00:29:23,640
+واركعي مع الراكعين وإن كان فيه شيء من التشريع إلا
+
+306
+00:29:23,640 --> 00:29:29,260
+أن الله سبحانه وتعالى يا أخواتي لما امتدحها لما
+
+307
+00:29:29,260 --> 00:29:36,100
+امتدحها لم يصفها بأنها نبية إنما امتدحها بأنها
+
+308
+00:29:36,100 --> 00:29:41,600
+صديقة ولو كانت نبية الآن النبوة ولا الصديقية أيهما
+
+309
+00:29:41,600 --> 00:29:46,860
+أسمة وأعلىالنبوة أعلى بالتأكيد لو أنها نبية لم
+
+310
+00:29:46,860 --> 00:29:52,920
+تدحها بأنها نبية لقال سبحانه وتعالى وما المسيح ابن
+
+311
+00:29:52,920 --> 00:29:59,280
+مريم إلا رسول قد خلت من قبله رسل وأمه نبية لكنه لم
+
+312
+00:29:59,280 --> 00:30:06,530
+يقول وأمه نبية إنما قال وأمه صديقةأمه إيه؟ صديقة
+
+313
+00:30:06,530 --> 00:30:11,770
+فهذه المرتبة التي وصلت إليها فهنا هذا ما نعتمد
+
+314
+00:30:11,770 --> 00:30:16,870
+عليه في أن مريم عليه السلام لم تكن نبيا إنما كانت
+
+315
+00:30:16,870 --> 00:30:22,110
+وصلت إلى درجة الصديقية كأبي بكر الصديق مثلا أبو
+
+316
+00:30:22,110 --> 00:30:26,550
+بكر الصديق يوصف بأنه الصديق صاحب رسول الله صلى
+
+317
+00:30:26,550 --> 00:30:30,570
+الله عليه وسلم بكثرة صدقه ولعدم تكريبه للنبي صلى
+
+318
+00:30:30,570 --> 00:30:34,800
+الله عليه وسلم في شيءفلو كان هناك وصفة أعلى من ذلك
+
+319
+00:30:34,800 --> 00:30:40,540
+لوصفها به ولم يأتي فيه هذا أيضا يمكن انا ان اعتبره
+
+320
+00:30:40,540 --> 00:30:47,240
+دليل مستقل انه لم يأتي هذا لم يأتي في نص قرآني ولا
+
+321
+00:30:47,240 --> 00:30:52,740
+في حديث نبوي صحيح أخبار بنبوة واحدة من النساء هذا
+
+322
+00:30:52,740 --> 00:30:58,050
+دليل مستقل وحدي هذا دليل مستقل وحديلو لم يأتي ..
+
+323
+00:30:58,050 --> 00:31:03,370
+لأنه لم يأتي حقيقة في القرآن ولا في السنة أي حديث
+
+324
+00:31:03,370 --> 00:31:09,030
+صحيح يدل على نبوت واحدة من النساء فالنبوة فقط في
+
+325
+00:31:09,030 --> 00:31:12,610
+الرجال بل جاء العكس جاء ما يؤكد أن النبوة في
+
+326
+00:31:12,610 --> 00:31:18,930
+الرجال فقط وما أرسلنا من قبلك إلا رجالا نوحي إليهم
+
+327
+00:31:19,810 --> 00:31:23,370
+هذه الصفة الأولى وهذه الصفة الثانية من صفات
+
+328
+00:31:23,370 --> 00:31:27,690
+الأنبياء إذا الصفة الأولى البشرية الصفة الثانية
+
+329
+00:31:27,690 --> 00:31:37,030
+الذكورة الصفة الثالثة الحرية وهي
+
+330
+00:31:37,030 --> 00:31:42,210
+أيضا من الصفات التي لا يليق بالأنبياء والمرسلين
+
+331
+00:31:42,210 --> 00:31:49,770
+إلا أن يتصفوا بها بأن يكونوا أحرارا لا يصحولا يقبل
+
+332
+00:31:49,770 --> 00:31:59,090
+أن يكون النبي عبدًا فالعبد فالعبودية نقص العبودية
+
+333
+00:31:59,090 --> 00:32:08,710
+نقص نقص من جهتين الجهة الأولى لو كان عبدًا لا يملك
+
+334
+00:32:08,710 --> 00:32:14,990
+نفسه ولا يملك وقته والنبوة تعلمون أنها تحتاج إلى
+
+335
+00:32:14,990 --> 00:32:16,370
+وقت كثير
+
+336
+00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:24,720
+الى وقت كثير يبذله النبي في دعوة الناس ولقاء
+
+337
+00:32:24,720 --> 00:32:31,820
+الكبراء ومقابلة السفراء وتجيش الجيوش والخطبة
+
+338
+00:32:31,820 --> 00:32:39,000
+بالناس وحل المشاكل بين المختلفين قضايا كثيرة
+
+339
+00:32:39,000 --> 00:32:45,560
+متعلقة بالنبي فلو كان عبدا هو لايملك وقته اصلا
+
+340
+00:32:45,560 --> 00:32:55,480
+لايملك نفسهوسيده لا يقبل ان يكون عبده الا في طاعته
+
+341
+00:32:55,480 --> 00:32:59,800
+وفي خدمته لذلك
+
+342
+00:32:59,800 --> 00:33:05,460
+لا يستحق ان يكون النبي عبدا الجهة الثانية ان
+
+343
+00:33:05,460 --> 00:33:13,120
+العبودية نقص ان كثير من الرجال كثير من الناس
+
+344
+00:33:13,120 --> 00:33:20,030
+سيستنكف عن عبادة هذا النبي لو كان عبداسيستنكفوا
+
+345
+00:33:20,030 --> 00:33:26,610
+سيقولون هذا ما اتبقى ان نتبع عبد من العبيد ان نتبع
+
+346
+00:33:26,610 --> 00:33:31,850
+عبد من العبيد اذا كان المشركين اذا كان المشركون لم
+
+347
+00:33:31,850 --> 00:33:34,670
+يتبعوا النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم كثير من الناس لم
+
+348
+00:33:34,670 --> 00:33:39,590
+يتبع النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم وهو من الأحرار وهو
+
+349
+00:33:39,590 --> 00:33:43,890
+من سادة قومه صلى الله عليه وسلم لم يتبعوا فما بالك
+
+350
+00:33:43,890 --> 00:33:48,370
+لو كان عبداإذا سيستنقف كثير من الناس لو كان النبي
+
+351
+00:33:48,370 --> 00:33:54,430
+عبدًا فالعبودية نقص من هتين الجهتين فحكمة الله
+
+352
+00:33:54,430 --> 00:33:58,870
+تبارك وتعالى أن اختار سبحانه وتعالى الأنبياء
+
+353
+00:33:58,870 --> 00:34:04,970
+والمرسلين من رجال أحرار وهذه حكمة الله عز وجل الله
+
+354
+00:34:04,970 --> 00:34:12,490
+أعلم حيث يجعل رسالته الله أعلم الحكمة كلها في ما
+
+355
+00:34:12,490 --> 00:34:19,370
+يفعله الله تبارك وتعالىأما الصفة الرابعة من صفات
+
+356
+00:34:19,370 --> 00:34:23,250
+الأنبياء والمرسلين السلام من الأمراض والعيوب
+
+357
+00:34:23,250 --> 00:34:30,050
+والنقائص المنفرة هذه الخاصية أو الصفة الرابعة
+
+358
+00:34:30,050 --> 00:34:35,270
+للأنبياء والمرسلين فمهمة الأنبياء والمرسلين تتطلب
+
+359
+00:34:35,270 --> 00:34:40,870
+مخالطة الناس والاجتماع معهم لدعوتهم وإرشادهم
+
+360
+00:34:40,870 --> 00:34:46,900
+وقيادتهم إلى ما فيه الخير والسدادولذلك يُشترط
+
+361
+00:34:46,900 --> 00:34:53,120
+سلامتهم من الأمراض والعيوب والنقائص المنفرة نقصد
+
+362
+00:34:53,120 --> 00:35:02,000
+بالعيوب والنقائص المنفرة أمرين اثنين الأول أن يكون
+
+363
+00:35:02,000 --> 00:35:07,680
+النبي أو الرسول سالمًا من العيوب المنفرة للطباع من
+
+364
+00:35:07,680 --> 00:35:14,760
+الأمراض والأسقام يجب أن يكون سليما كالبرص والجذام
+
+365
+00:35:17,100 --> 00:35:21,860
+البرس هو مرض جلدي، بُقع هكذا تظهر في الجلد، في جلد
+
+366
+00:35:21,860 --> 00:35:27,180
+الإنسان، والجذام هو مرض، عفونا الله وإياكم، تآكل
+
+367
+00:35:27,180 --> 00:35:31,800
+اللحم، تآكل أطراف الجسد، تجد أن الأصابع مثلا في
+
+368
+00:35:31,800 --> 00:35:38,960
+القدمين أو في اليدين تتآكل، تصبح في قصر، تقصر،
+
+369
+00:35:38,960 --> 00:35:43,550
+تقصر، هكذا، تقصر، شيئا في شيئايتأكل يبدو كأنه
+
+370
+00:35:43,550 --> 00:35:47,930
+جرثومة تأكل حتى أن النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم في
+
+371
+00:35:47,930 --> 00:35:52,050
+الحديث الصحيح حذر من الإقتراب من المجدوم، فر من
+
+372
+00:35:52,050 --> 00:35:58,190
+المجدوم، فرارك من الأسد، مرض جلدي معدي، مرض جلدي
+
+373
+00:35:58,190 --> 00:36:03,310
+معدي وخطير جدا، كالبرص والجذام، رأيته وأنا في بعض
+
+374
+00:36:03,310 --> 00:36:10,060
+البلدان يعنيإذاً لابد وأن يكون النبي أو الرسول
+
+375
+00:36:10,060 --> 00:36:14,960
+سليماً من العيوب المنفرة للطباع من الأمراض
+
+376
+00:36:14,960 --> 00:36:19,140
+والأسقاب، لأنه سيختلط بالناس، النبوة تحتاج إلى أن
+
+377
+00:36:19,140 --> 00:36:23,220
+يختلط بالناس ويدعوهم إلى الله تبارك وتعالى، فلو
+
+378
+00:36:23,220 --> 00:36:30,710
+كان متصفا بهذه الصفاتيعني سيكون شكله هكذا ومنفر
+
+379
+00:36:30,710 --> 00:36:36,690
+للناس مبعدا لهم والنبوة لا يأتي النبي لينفر الناس
+
+380
+00:36:36,690 --> 00:36:44,610
+ويطردهم او ينفرهم من الدخول في دينه قد يعترض هنا
+
+381
+00:36:44,610 --> 00:36:51,710
+ببلاء أيوب عليه السلام الذي أصيب بدأ جلدي نفر
+
+382
+00:36:51,710 --> 00:37:00,140
+الناس منهنفر الناس منه وهنا حقيقة يعني في حق أيوب
+
+383
+00:37:00,140 --> 00:37:04,420
+عليه السلام إسرائيليات كثيرة روايات إسرائيلية
+
+384
+00:37:04,420 --> 00:37:11,340
+كثيرة يجب الحذر منها منها أنه يعني تعفن جسده وأخذ
+
+385
+00:37:11,340 --> 00:37:17,870
+الدوديأكل في جسده وكان يمسك بالدودة ويقول لها يعني
+
+386
+00:37:17,870 --> 00:37:21,950
+كلي من جسدي ما شئتي فأنا أصبر وأحتسب لله عز وجل من
+
+387
+00:37:21,950 --> 00:37:25,250
+هذا الكلام هذا كلام يعني لا قيم له عندنا في
+
+388
+00:37:25,250 --> 00:37:32,370
+عقيدتنا لم يأتي فيه نص صحيح الأمر الذي نسلم به أن
+
+389
+00:37:32,370 --> 00:37:37,290
+الله تبارك وتعالى ابتلى أيوب عليه السلام بلاء في
+
+390
+00:37:37,290 --> 00:37:43,460
+جسده وفي أهله وفي مالهوبقي هذا البلاء مدة طويلة
+
+391
+00:37:43,460 --> 00:37:49,570
+يعني في الأخبار والإسرائيليات جاء أنهمكثا ثلاث عشر
+
+392
+00:37:49,570 --> 00:37:53,970
+عاما وفي رواية خمس عشر عاما وفي رواية ثمانية عشر
+
+393
+00:37:53,970 --> 00:38:01,530
+عاما ونفر الناس منه يعني .. يعني .. خلّيني أقول
+
+394
+00:38:01,530 --> 00:38:06,630
+ابتعد الناس عنه ابتعد الناس عنه وابتعدوا عنه لم
+
+395
+00:38:06,630 --> 00:38:11,670
+يبقى حوله إلا رجلين وامرأته فقط من أتباعي إلا
+
+396
+00:38:11,670 --> 00:38:16,890
+رجلان وامرأته بقيت تخدمهعليه الصلاة والسلام وهو
+
+397
+00:38:16,890 --> 00:38:22,430
+صابر محتسب صابر ومحتسب و أيوب عليه السلام حقيقة
+
+398
+00:38:22,430 --> 00:38:28,110
+حقيقة لم يصب بمثل هذه الإسرائيليات الأخبار التي
+
+399
+00:38:28,110 --> 00:38:32,610
+جاءت في الإسرائيليات هو كان مبتلى هذا أمر يعني
+
+400
+00:38:32,610 --> 00:38:37,530
+يثبته القرآن الكريم قال تعالى فاستجبنا له فكشفنا
+
+401
+00:38:37,530 --> 00:38:42,070
+ما به من ضر نعم هو أصابه الضرأصابه الضر في جسده
+
+402
+00:38:42,070 --> 00:38:47,670
+ابتلي بلاء شديد حتى أنه ضرب به المثل صبر أيوب هكذا
+
+403
+00:38:47,670 --> 00:38:51,850
+يقول الناس وهذا متوارث بين الأجيال فأيوب عليه
+
+404
+00:38:51,850 --> 00:38:57,270
+السلام ابتلي بلاء شديد لكن ما نسب إليه ما قيل في
+
+405
+00:38:57,270 --> 00:39:01,650
+حقه عليه الصلاة والسلام من أنه تعفن جسده أو ما إلى
+
+406
+00:39:01,650 --> 00:39:06,760
+ذلك هذا ليس أمرا صحيحا ولا نسلم بهلم تأتي آية أو
+
+407
+00:39:06,760 --> 00:39:13,240
+حديث نبو صحيح يثبت مثل هذه الأخبار لذلك لا نثبتها
+
+408
+00:39:13,240 --> 00:39:18,040
+لا نثبتها لا نصدقها ولا نقبل بها فاستجبنا له
+
+409
+00:39:18,040 --> 00:39:24,940
+فكشفنا ما به منضر واتيناه أهله ومثلهم معهم نقول أن
+
+410
+00:39:24,940 --> 00:39:31,960
+هذا الإبتلاء كان قبل النبوة قبل النبوة قبل نبوته
+
+411
+00:39:31,960 --> 00:39:36,900
+وقد زال بعدها وقد زال بعدهايعني بعد النبوة بعد ان
+
+412
+00:39:36,900 --> 00:39:40,700
+ابتعثاه الله تبارك وتعالى لم يكن مصابا انما كان
+
+413
+00:39:40,700 --> 00:39:45,720
+عبدا صالحا قبل نبوته ثم لما عفاه الله تبارك وتعالى
+
+414
+00:39:45,720 --> 00:39:50,240
+بعد المعافا ابتعثاه الله تبارك وتعالى لقومه
+
+415
+00:39:50,240 --> 00:39:55,480
+فاستجبنا له فكشفنا ما بيه من ضرر واتيناه أهله
+
+416
+00:39:55,480 --> 00:40:01,400
+ومثلهم معهم حتى انه لما اتاه الله تبارك وتعالى
+
+417
+00:40:02,150 --> 00:40:08,270
+الصحة والعافية ورد عليه يعني جماله وصحته وعافيته
+
+418
+00:40:08,270 --> 00:40:13,790
+جاءت زوجته فلم تعرفه تقول له هل رأيت هذا الرجل
+
+419
+00:40:13,790 --> 00:40:19,530
+المريض القعيد والله هو أشبه الرجال بك هو أشبه
+
+420
+00:40:19,530 --> 00:40:27,410
+الرجال بك فقال له هو أنا هو أنا ويعنيهذا كان بعد
+
+421
+00:40:27,410 --> 00:40:31,690
+أن من الله تبارك وتعالى عليه بعد ذلك ابتعثه ابتعثه
+
+422
+00:40:31,690 --> 00:40:38,270
+الله تبارك وتعالى للنبوة أما ما كان من مرض ومن علة
+
+423
+00:40:38,270 --> 00:40:44,010
+في جسده ومن ضر فهذا كان قبل النبوة والله أعلم بأو
+
+424
+00:40:44,010 --> 00:40:49,230
+الأمر الثاني أن يكون سالما من نقص الخلقة فشرطه أن
+
+425
+00:40:49,230 --> 00:40:54,980
+يكون أكمل أهل زمانه خلقا حال بعثته إلى الناسيعني
+
+426
+00:40:54,980 --> 00:40:59,300
+لا يصلح أن يرسل الله تبارك وتعالى إلينا نبيا أعور
+
+427
+00:40:59,300 --> 00:41:08,480
+أو أعرج أو ألثغ بمعنى عنده أيه عنده عيب في النطق
+
+428
+00:41:08,480 --> 00:41:13,600
+لا يستطيع نطق حرف الرا مثلا كما هو حاصل عند كثير
+
+429
+00:41:13,600 --> 00:41:19,860
+من الناس لكن قد يعترض البعض بعقدة لسان موسى عليه
+
+430
+00:41:19,860 --> 00:41:26,420
+السلام موسى عليه السلاملما دعى الله عز وجل دعاه
+
+431
+00:41:26,420 --> 00:41:32,240
+وحل العقدة من لسانى يفقه قولى فهذا
+
+432
+00:41:32,240 --> 00:41:37,380
+فاهم منه البعض أن موسى عليه السلام كان ألثغان
+
+433
+00:41:37,380 --> 00:41:43,340
+وايضا هناك إسرائيليات في هذا الموضوع أن فرعون عليه
+
+434
+00:41:43,340 --> 00:41:52,480
+من الله ما يستحق أراد قتله فقالت له زوجه فرعونقدم
+
+435
+00:41:52,480 --> 00:41:58,000
+له جمرة و تمرة، فهو غير عاقل، أصلا لا يعقل، يعني
+
+436
+00:41:58,000 --> 00:42:03,660
+يقال أن موسى عليه السلام و هو صغير شد
+
+437
+00:42:03,660 --> 00:42:08,780
+ذقن فرعون،
+
+438
+00:42:08,780 --> 00:42:14,570
+فآذاه، فأراد قتلهفردقتله فقالت له هو طفل صغير لا
+
+439
+00:42:14,570 --> 00:42:21,050
+يعقل قدم له تمرة وجمرة فامسك بالجمرة
+
+440
+00:42:21,050 --> 00:42:28,490
+ولاكها في فمه فاصيب باللثغة القرطة في لسانه طبعا
+
+441
+00:42:28,490 --> 00:42:32,710
+لا تعقل مثل هذه اللي لأن الإنسان بطبيعته وفطرته
+
+442
+00:42:32,710 --> 00:42:37,550
+بمجرد أن يمسك الجمرة وتكويه في يده يلقي بها لا
+
+443
+00:42:37,550 --> 00:42:44,460
+يضعها في فمه مثل هذه الرواية يعنيضعيفة و ..نفسها
+
+444
+00:42:44,460 --> 00:42:50,180
+بنفسها أو تبطي نفسها بنفسها لذلك لكن لو سلمنا أن
+
+445
+00:42:50,180 --> 00:42:55,080
+موسى عليه السلام كان ألثغان أو كان به عيب خلقي
+
+446
+00:42:55,080 --> 00:43:02,180
+أيضا نقول هذا كان قبل النبوة قبل النبوة فعندما
+
+447
+00:43:02,180 --> 00:43:07,840
+أرسله الله عز وجل إلى فرعون بعد أن كبره دع الله عز
+
+448
+00:43:07,840 --> 00:43:12,860
+وجل قال واحلل عقدة من لساني يفقه قوليفاستجاب الله
+
+449
+00:43:12,860 --> 00:43:17,960
+عز وجل لدعوته قائلا قد قال قد أوتيت سؤلك يا موسى
+
+450
+00:43:17,960 --> 00:43:25,120
+يعني نحن استجبنا لدعائك وأزلنا ما بك من عيب خلقي
+
+451
+00:43:25,120 --> 00:43:30,580
+في نطقك وفي لسانك وأصبحت قادر على التعبير على
+
+452
+00:43:30,580 --> 00:43:35,640
+التعبير بكل طلاقة فلك الآن أن تذهب إلى فرعونأنت
+
+453
+00:43:35,640 --> 00:43:42,640
+وأخيك ههو معك يشد أذرك هارون وتدعوانه إلى عبادتي
+
+454
+00:43:42,640 --> 00:43:47,520
+وإلى طاعته هذه يا أخواتي هي بعض الصفات الخلقية
+
+455
+00:43:47,520 --> 00:43:52,840
+الواجبة للأنبياء يعني نقصت بها اتصافهم بكل كمال
+
+456
+00:43:52,840 --> 00:43:58,620
+إنساني وتنفي عنهم كل نقص بشري وذلك لأن النبوة
+
+457
+00:43:58,620 --> 00:44:04,140
+والرسالة أشرف مناصب الخلقومقتضية الإجلال اللائق
+
+458
+00:44:04,140 --> 00:44:10,880
+بها فلا يصح أن يكون الأنبياء من الملائكة فهم بشر
+
+459
+00:44:10,880 --> 00:44:18,960
+كما ذكرنا وهم رجال هذه صفة الذكورة ثم هم أحرار لا
+
+460
+00:44:18,960 --> 00:44:24,690
+يصح أن يكون النبي عبدا و أيضايجب أن يكون النبي هذه
+
+461
+00:44:24,690 --> 00:44:28,430
+من صفاته الأصيلة السلامة من الأمراض والعيوب
+
+462
+00:44:28,430 --> 00:44:32,790
+والنقائص المنفرة اللقاء القادم ان شاء الله نتحدث
+
+463
+00:44:32,790 --> 00:44:37,330
+فيه الصفات الخلقية للأنبياء والمرسلين بارك الله
+
+464
+00:44:37,330 --> 00:44:39,610
+فيكم والسلام عليكم ورحمة الله
+
diff --git a/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/vNJm_MLpCU8.srt b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/vNJm_MLpCU8.srt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000000000000000000000000000000000000..2efa51dc51b21362c621211e55bc9709827cf37a
--- /dev/null
+++ b/PL9fwy3NUQKwaZV3azJygmELI1Des-NqnB/vNJm_MLpCU8.srt
@@ -0,0 +1,915 @@
+1
+00:00:20,810 --> 00:00:23,790
+أعوذ بالله السميع العلي من الشيطان الرجيم بسم الله
+
+2
+00:00:23,790 --> 00:00:28,210
+الرحمن الرحيم الحمد لله رب العالمين وأصلي وأسلم 
+
+3
+00:00:28,210 --> 00:00:31,870
+على رسول الله الأمين محمد بن عبد الله الصادق
+
+4
+00:00:31,870 --> 00:00:35,810
+الأمين صلى الله عليه وعلى آله وصحبه وسلم أجمعين
+
+5
+00:00:35,810 --> 00:00:39,930
+اللهم لا سهل إلا ما جعلته سهلًا وأنت تجعل الحزن إن
+
+6
+00:00:39,930 --> 00:00:44,030
+شئت سهلًا اللهم علّمنا ما ينفعنا وانفعنا بما علّمتنا
+
+7
+00:00:44,030 --> 00:00:50,100
+وازدنا علمًا إنك أنت العليم الحكيم وبعد، باستكمال لما
+
+8
+00:00:50,100 --> 00:00:53,560
+مرّ من الحديث .. ما سبق من حديثنا عن علامات الساعة
+
+9
+00:00:53,560 --> 00:00:58,340
+الصغرى نستكمل إن شاء الله هذه العلامات فالعلامة
+
+10
+00:00:58,340 --> 00:01:04,620
+التي تلي ما يعني وصلنا إليه عدم تحري الرزق الحلال
+
+11
+00:01:06,010 --> 00:01:09,790
+فهذه على ما أخبر بها النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم وقد
+
+12
+00:01:09,790 --> 00:01:13,990
+كان كما أخبر عليه الصلاة والسلام قال عليه الصلاة
+
+13
+00:01:13,990 --> 00:01:18,430
+والسلام: يأتي على الناس زمان لا يبالي المرء ما أخذ
+
+14
+00:01:18,430 --> 00:01:25,900
+منه أمن الحلال أم من الحرام، وهذا أمر مشهود، هذا أصبح
+
+15
+00:01:25,900 --> 00:01:31,740
+واقعًا للأسف الشديد في حياتنا فأصبح كثير من الناس
+
+16
+00:01:31,740 --> 00:01:36,580
+كثير من الناس لا يهمه أن يكون مصدر رزقه حلالًا أم
+
+17
+00:01:36,580 --> 00:01:41,740
+حرام، المهم أن يدر عليه المشروع الذي يعمل فيه أو
+
+18
+00:01:41,740 --> 00:01:47,200
+العمل الذي يعني يعمل فيه أن يكون يدر عليه أرباحًا
+
+19
+00:01:47,200 --> 00:01:52,000
+بغض النظر هو حلال أم حرام، حتى هنا كثير من البيوت ..
+
+20
+00:01:52,000 --> 00:01:57,020
+من بيوت المسلمين أصبح ولي الأمر الأب أو الأم لا
+
+21
+00:01:57,020 --> 00:02:02,380
+يسألون أبناءهم عن مصدر رزقهم، المهم على الولد أن
+
+22
+00:02:02,380 --> 00:02:07,990
+يأتي أو الشاب أن يأتي بـ .. بفلوس، بغض النظر أهي من
+
+23
+00:02:07,990 --> 00:02:12,750
+حلال أم من حرام أم سرقة أم ربا أم مقامرة، المهم أن
+
+24
+00:02:12,750 --> 00:02:18,610
+يأتي بفلوس، وهذه علامة كما قلنا أخبر بها النبي صلى
+
+25
+00:02:18,610 --> 00:02:22,470
+الله عليه وسلم وقد كانت كما أخبر عليه الصلاة
+
+26
+00:02:22,470 --> 00:02:28,570
+والسلام، وهي عدم تحري الرزق الحلال، عدم تحري الرزق
+
+27
+00:02:28,570 --> 00:02:32,530
+الحلال، هذه علامة من علامات الساعة الصغرى، أيضًا من
+
+28
+00:02:32,530 --> 00:02:36,840
+العلامات التي أخبر بها النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم أن
+
+29
+00:02:36,840 --> 00:02:45,040
+يجفّ الرجل أباه ويقرب صديقه، هذه علامة من العلامات
+
+30
+00:02:45,040 --> 00:02:53,600
+أيضًا نجد أننا نبش ونصر ونضحك ونمزح ونستقبل بالبشر
+
+31
+00:02:53,600 --> 00:02:58,620
+والسرور أصدقاءنا، لكن إذا دخلنا بيوتنا، إذا دخل
+
+32
+00:02:58,620 --> 00:03:06,550
+الواحد منهم بيته يتجهمّ، مجرد هكذا يكشر ويكشف عن
+
+33
+00:03:06,550 --> 00:03:15,010
+أنيابه، يكون صعبًا صالفا جامدًا جافًا في معاملته مع
+
+34
+00:03:15,010 --> 00:03:20,310
+والديه، هذه صورة من صور التعامل مع الوالدين، هذه
+
+35
+00:03:20,310 --> 00:03:26,310
+صورة من صور عقوق الوالدين، وصورة أخرى أنه قد يأتيني
+
+36
+00:03:26,310 --> 00:03:34,060
+أصدقاء فأكرمهم وأقدم لهم الفواكه والمكسرات وما طاب
+
+37
+00:03:34,060 --> 00:03:38,960
+من ملذات الطعام، لكن في حين أنني أبخل على والدي
+
+38
+00:03:38,960 --> 00:03:46,280
+بهذا الطعام، يجفّ الرجل أباه ويقرب صديقه، هذه من
+
+39
+00:03:46,280 --> 00:03:50,900
+علامات الساعة الصغرى التي أخبر بها نبينا صلى الله
+
+40
+00:03:50,900 --> 00:03:56,360
+عليه وسلم وقد كان، وقد كان ما أخبر به عليه الصلاة
+
+41
+00:03:56,360 --> 00:04:01,420
+والسلام، وهذا يدل عليه .. يدل على صدق النبي، الواقع
+
+42
+00:04:01,420 --> 00:04:08,340
+الذي نحياه، كثرت مظاهر عقوق الوالدين برفع الصوت
+
+43
+00:04:08,340 --> 00:04:15,480
+والجفاء والمقاطعة، بل وأحيانًا بيع البيت الذي يسكنه
+
+44
+00:04:15,480 --> 00:04:23,670
+الوالد، سمعتوا أن أنا شاب يبيع البيت الذي بناه والده
+
+45
+00:04:23,670 --> 00:04:31,250
+ومن ما هو أقبح من ذلك أن يأخذ الرجل والده أو
+
+46
+00:04:31,250 --> 00:04:36,890
+والدته إلى دار المسنين، إلى دار المسنين، فلا يزوره
+
+47
+00:04:36,890 --> 00:04:41,790
+إن زاره لا يزوره إلا في السنة مرة أو المرات
+
+48
+00:04:41,790 --> 00:04:47,910
+القليلة، ومجرد أن يفكر الابن في حمل والده أو
+
+49
+00:04:47,910 --> 00:04:52,700
+والدته إلى دار المسنين هي عقوق في حد ذاتها، بل هي
+
+50
+00:04:52,700 --> 00:04:58,480
+من أكبر الكبائر كما عدّها النبي ﷺ عقوق الوالدين
+
+51
+00:04:59,780 --> 00:05:06,300
+المطلوب منا أن نبرّ والدينا وأن نعرف فضلهما علينا
+
+52
+00:05:06,300 --> 00:05:11,220
+ونحن صغارًا بدلًا من أن نقول كما علمنا ربنا تبارك
+
+53
+00:05:11,220 --> 00:05:17,300
+وتعالى ربّ رحمهما كما ربياني صغيرًا. إذا هذه علامة من
+
+54
+00:05:17,300 --> 00:05:21,180
+علامات الساعة الصغرى أخبر بها نبينا صلى الله عليه
+
+55
+00:05:21,180 --> 00:05:26,180
+وسلم وقد كان الأمر كما أخبر عليه الصلاة والسلام.
+
+56
+00:05:26,700 --> 00:05:33,630
+على ما أخرى تمني الموت لكثرة الفتنة، تمني الموت، أخبر
+
+57
+00:05:33,630 --> 00:05:38,050
+صلى الله عليه وسلم بهذه العلامة وقد كان الأمر كما
+
+58
+00:05:38,050 --> 00:05:41,950
+أخبر عليه الصلاة والسلام قال عليه الصلاة والسلام
+
+59
+00:05:41,950 --> 00:05:48,070
+لا تقوم الساعة حتى يمرّ الرجل بقبر الرجل فيقول يا
+
+60
+00:05:48,070 --> 00:05:53,710
+ليتني مكانه، يا ليتني مكانه، من كثرة الفتن التي
+
+61
+00:05:53,710 --> 00:05:59,470
+يراها الإنسان ويعيشها في حياته ويكابدها في حياته
+
+62
+00:06:00,240 --> 00:06:05,800
+فيتمنى إن مرّ على مقبرة أن يكون معهم من بين الأموات
+
+63
+00:06:05,800 --> 00:06:13,000
+لشدة هذه الفتن التي يعيشها، فالحروب التي تحصل، عقوق
+
+64
+00:06:13,000 --> 00:06:19,420
+الوالدين الذي يحصل، قلة الرزق التي تحصل، ضيق المعيشة
+
+65
+00:06:19,420 --> 00:06:24,280
+الحصار الذي نحياه، كثير من المظاهر تجعل الإنسان
+
+66
+00:06:24,280 --> 00:06:29,620
+يتمنى الموت، يتمنى أن يكون مع الأموات لعله لو كان
+
+67
+00:06:29,620 --> 00:06:36,830
+ميتًا يحسب أنه بالتأكيد لن يعني يرتكب معاصي حرام، لن 
+
+68
+00:06:36,830 --> 00:06:40,910
+يشاهد ما يغضب الله تبارك وتعالى، فيتمنى أن يكون مع
+
+69
+00:06:40,910 --> 00:06:47,130
+الأموات بدلًا من ارتكاب هذه المعاصي، هذه علامة أخبر
+
+70
+00:06:47,130 --> 00:06:51,250
+بها نبينا وقد كان كما أخبر عليه الصلاة والسلام
+
+71
+00:06:51,250 --> 00:06:57,100
+علامة أخرى أن تريد الأمة ربتها، أن تلد الأمة ربتها
+
+72
+00:06:57,100 --> 00:07:00,920
+هذه العلامة جاءت في حديث جبريل عليه السلام، وحديثه
+
+73
+00:07:00,920 --> 00:07:05,780
+جبريل معروف للجميع الذي يرويه عمرو بن العاص رضوان
+
+74
+00:07:05,780 --> 00:07:10,640
+الله عليه، والذي في أوله يقول عمرو رضوان الله عليه
+
+75
+00:07:10,640 --> 00:07:15,000
+بينما نحن جلوس عند رسول الله صلى الله عليه وسلم إذ
+
+76
+00:07:15,000 --> 00:07:20,040
+طلع علينا رجل شديد بياض الثياب شديد سواد الشعر لا
+
+77
+00:07:20,040 --> 00:07:26,430
+يعرفه أحد منا، دخل فسلم ثم جلس فأسند ركبتيه إلى
+
+78
+00:07:26,430 --> 00:07:31,210
+ركبتي النبي وسأل النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم ما
+
+79
+00:07:31,210 --> 00:07:35,410
+الإيمان فأجابه النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم بأركان
+
+80
+00:07:35,410 --> 00:07:40,050
+الإيمان الستة، ثم سأله ما الإسلام فأجابه النبي صلى
+
+81
+00:07:40,050 --> 00:07:44,510
+الله عليه وسلم بأركان الإسلام الخمسة، ثم سأله ما
+
+82
+00:07:44,510 --> 00:07:49,380
+الإحسان فقال الإحسان أن تعبد الله كأنك تراه، فإن لم
+
+83
+00:07:49,380 --> 00:07:55,120
+تكن تراه فإنه يراك، ثم سأله النبي عن الساعة متى
+
+84
+00:07:55,120 --> 00:07:58,680
+الساعة، فقال صلى الله عليه وسلم ما المسئول عنها
+
+85
+00:07:58,680 --> 00:08:03,140
+بأعلى من السائل، قال اخبرني عن إماراتها، قال ما أنك
+
+86
+00:08:03,140 --> 00:08:07,330
+لا تعرف متى تقوم الساعة، إذا أخبرني عن إماراتها
+
+87
+00:08:07,330 --> 00:08:13,470
+فأجاب النبي بهذه العلامة، بعلامتين وهنا نموذج من
+
+88
+00:08:13,470 --> 00:08:18,130
+العلامات، فقال أن تلد الأمة ربتها وأن ترى الحفاة
+
+89
+00:08:18,130 --> 00:08:22,570
+العُرى رعاة الشاة يتطاولون في البنيان، هذه هي
+
+90
+00:08:22,570 --> 00:08:27,250
+العلامة التي نتحدث فيها، أن تلد الأمة ربتها في معنى
+
+91
+00:08:27,250 --> 00:08:33,990
+هذا الحديث لأهل العلم أقوال فيه، القول الأول أن تلد
+
+92
+00:08:33,990 --> 00:08:40,190
+الأمة ربتها بمعنى أن تتسع رقعة الإسلام وأن يستولي
+
+93
+00:08:40,190 --> 00:08:47,650
+المسلمون على بلاد كثيرة فيكون لهم من الجوار
+
+94
+00:08:47,650 --> 00:08:56,890
+والإماء فيتزوج الرجل بأمته أما من إمائه فتنجب له
+
+95
+00:08:56,890 --> 00:08:59,170
+طفلة
+
+96
+00:09:00,690 --> 00:09:10,070
+فهي بنت عبدة، بنت أمة ووالدها سيد، حرّ، فتكون هذه
+
+97
+00:09:10,070 --> 00:09:17,990
+البنت المولودة سيدة لأمها، أن تلد الأمة سيدتها،
+
+98
+00:09:17,990 --> 00:09:25,610
+ربتها بمعنى إيه؟ سيدتها لأن أمها أمة، أمها أمة، و
+
+99
+00:09:25,610 --> 00:09:32,060
+هي إيه؟ وهي حرة، هي بنت السيدة، هذا معنى من المعاني
+
+100
+00:09:32,060 --> 00:09:36,720
+الذي ذهب إليه العلماء، أما المعنى الثاني قال أهل
+
+101
+00:09:36,720 --> 00:09:42,800
+العلم أن يكسروا العقوق في الأمهات فيعامل
+
+102
+00:09:42,800 --> 00:09:49,900
+الولد أمه معاملة السيد أمته من الإهانة والسبب وهذا
+
+103
+00:09:49,900 --> 00:09:59,300
+حاصل، لا سيما في علاقة الأبناء والبنات مع أمهاتهم مع
+
+104
+00:09:59,300 --> 00:10:05,960
+الأمهات، هذا حاصل بالتقاصر
+
+105
+00:10:05,960 --> 00:10:12,740
+عن المساعدة في عمل البيت، هذا عقوق برفع الصوت
+
+106
+00:10:12,740 --> 00:10:18,980
+والصراخ، هذا عقوق بعدم
+
+107
+00:10:18,980 --> 00:10:26,810
+سماع الكلام والإنصياع للتوجيهات من الأم والأب، هذا
+
+108
+00:10:26,810 --> 00:10:32,950
+عقوق، قال ابن حجر هذا الوجه الثاني وهذا أوجه الأوجه
+
+109
+00:10:32,950 --> 00:10:40,850
+عندي، بمعنى هذا هو الراجح، ولكن نقول وكلا الأمرين قد
+
+110
+00:10:40,850 --> 00:10:49,990
+كان، الأمر الأول وهو اتساع رقعة بلاد الإسلام وأن
+
+111
+00:10:49,990 --> 00:10:58,220
+يتزوج الرجل أمته فتنجب له بنتًا فتكون سيدة لأمها
+
+112
+00:10:58,220 --> 00:11:08,540
+والأمر الثاني عقوق البنات لأمهاتهن وابن حجر يرجّح
+
+113
+00:11:08,540 --> 00:11:14,660
+هذا الوجه الثاني قال وهذا أوجه الأوجه عندي، أوجه
+
+114
+00:11:14,660 --> 00:11:22,470
+الأوجه عندي هذا هو الراجح، فهذه نبوءة هذه علامة من
+
+115
+00:11:22,470 --> 00:11:26,090
+علامات الساعة أخبر بها نبينا صلى الله عليه وسلم
+
+116
+00:11:26,090 --> 00:11:30,790
+وقد كان الأمر كما أخبر عليه الصلاة والسلام
+
+117
+00:11:30,790 --> 00:11:34,450
+والعلامة
+
+118
+00:11:34,450 --> 00:11:39,970
+الأخرى في حديث جبريل السابق ذكره أن ترى الحفاة
+
+119
+00:11:39,970 --> 00:11:45,050
+العُرى العالة رعاة الشاة يتطاولون في البنيان
+
+120
+00:11:45,050 --> 00:11:53,550
+يتطاولون في البنيان وقد ظهر هذا في زماننا جليًا، كان
+
+121
+00:11:53,550 --> 00:12:03,390
+الأمر كنا نحسب أن معنى هذا الحديث أن يسكن البدو
+
+122
+00:12:03,390 --> 00:12:12,170
+وأهل البادية والصحراء أن يسكنوا العمارات والبناء
+
+123
+00:12:12,170 --> 00:12:19,190
+البُسُلْح بدلًا من الخيمة وبيت الشعر، هذا المعنى القديم
+
+124
+00:12:19,190 --> 00:12:27,300
+لكن بدأ لنا أن الأمر له معنى آخر وهو التطاول في
+
+125
+00:12:27,300 --> 00:12:31,640
+البنيان كما ذكر النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم، فهؤلاء 
+
+126
+00:12:31,640 --> 00:12:42,300
+يسكنون بيتا من طوب مسلح بيتا عاديا لعله طوابق
+
+127
+00:12:42,300 --> 00:12:49,240
+خمس طوابق ستة طوابق فيأتي جارهم، جار صاحب هذا البيت 
+
+128
+00:12:49,240 --> 00:12:56,580
+فيبني بجانبه بناية ثلاثين طابق فيأتي ينظر صاحب هذه
+
+129
+00:12:56,580 --> 00:13:03,940
+البناية خمس، ست طوابق فينظر فيقول جاري أغنى مني
+
+130
+00:13:03,940 --> 00:13:11,360
+وأقدر مني لأفعلن أكثر مما فعل فيهدم هذه البناية
+
+131
+00:13:11,360 --> 00:13:20,290
+ليبني أربعين طابق ليبني بناية أربعين طابقا صدق رسول
+
+132
+00:13:20,290 --> 00:13:23,970
+الله صلى الله عليه وسلم أن ترى الحفاة العراة
+
+133
+00:13:23,970 --> 00:13:29,850
+العالي رعاة الغنم ما لهم يتطاولون في البنيان
+
+134
+00:13:29,850 --> 00:13:37,010
+واليوم العرب يتسابقون في أعلى برج في العالم أعلى 
+
+135
+00:13:37,010 --> 00:13:44,660
+برج في العالم أو أكبر صحن حمص أو أكبر كيكة كعكة أو
+
+136
+00:13:44,660 --> 00:13:49,120
+ما إلى ذلك من الفطائر أو ما إلى ذلك هكذا فيما هذا
+
+137
+00:13:49,120 --> 00:13:54,980
+هو ما يتسابقون فيه للأسف الشديد من العلامات أيضا
+
+138
+00:13:54,980 --> 00:14:02,180
+قبض العلم وظهور الجهل هذه علامة أخبر بها نبينا صلى
+
+139
+00:14:02,180 --> 00:14:06,140
+الله عليه وسلم قال عليه الصلاة والسلام من أشراط
+
+140
+00:14:06,140 --> 00:14:11,610
+الساعة أن يُرفع العلم ويثبت الجهل 
+
+141
+00:14:11,610 --> 00:14:17,050
+ويثبت الجهل ولعل الواحد مننا عندما يسمع هذه
+
+142
+00:14:17,050 --> 00:14:21,950
+العلامة يستغرب فما نراه في الواقع أن العلم يكثر
+
+143
+00:14:21,950 --> 00:14:31,770
+بمعنى أن المطابع والكتب المجلدات المؤلفات وسائل
+
+144
+00:14:31,770 --> 00:14:38,130
+نقل المعرفة المقروءة والمسموعة والمرئية والإنترنت
+
+145
+00:14:38,130 --> 00:14:44,630
+والمواقع العلمية المنتشرة الكثيرة بلغات عديدة
+
+146
+00:14:44,630 --> 00:14:50,750
+وصناعة التواصل وصناعة نقل المعلومة هذا يعني يعطي
+
+147
+00:14:50,750 --> 00:14:56,990
+انطباعا على أن هذا الحديث يعني غيره صحيح بدلا من
+
+148
+00:14:56,990 --> 00:15:02,330
+أن يرفع العلم لأ هو يكثر العلم العلم لا يرفع العلم
+
+149
+00:15:02,330 --> 00:15:09,360
+يوضع بين الأيادي ويقرب إلى الأفهام والحقيقة أن النبي 
+
+150
+00:15:09,360 --> 00:15:14,960
+صلى الله عليه وسلم يعرف كيف يُقبض العلم كيف يُرفع
+
+151
+00:15:14,960 --> 00:15:20,140
+العلم في حديث صحيح البخاري عليه رحمة الله قال
+
+152
+00:15:20,140 --> 00:15:25,840
+صلى الله عليه وسلم إن الله لا يقبض العلم انتزاعا
+
+153
+00:15:25,840 --> 00:15:32,560
+ينتزعه من العباد ولكن يقبض العلم بقبض العلماء أي
+
+154
+00:15:32,560 --> 00:15:39,610
+نعم حتى إذا لم يبقى عالما اتخذ الناس رؤوسا وفي
+
+155
+00:15:39,610 --> 00:15:48,590
+رواية رؤساء جهالا فسئلوا فأفتوا بغير علم فضلوا و
+
+156
+00:15:48,590 --> 00:15:56,470
+أضلوا فإذا قبض العلم يكون بقبض العلماء رفع العلم
+
+157
+00:15:56,470 --> 00:16:03,070
+يكون برفع العلماء بقبض أرواح العلماء وهذه حقيقة لم 
+
+158
+00:16:03,070 --> 00:16:10,970
+نعد نشاهد علماء مسلمين موسوعيين كحال علماء الإسلام
+
+159
+00:16:10,970 --> 00:16:18,250
+في صدر الإسلام فالعلماء كان الواحد منهم كما يتكلم
+
+160
+00:16:18,250 --> 00:16:23,990
+في التفسير والحديث والعقيدة والفقه أيضا يتكلم في
+
+161
+00:16:23,990 --> 00:16:30,640
+الفلك والهندسة والطب وما إلى ذلك من علوم فاليوم
+
+162
+00:16:30,640 --> 00:16:36,400
+أمثال هؤلاء العلماء الموسوعيين لم يعودوا موجودين
+
+163
+00:16:36,400 --> 00:16:41,780
+لم يعودوا موجودين قال الإمام النووي رحمه الله هذا
+
+164
+00:16:41,780 --> 00:16:45,980
+الحديث يبين أن المراد بقبض العلم في الأحاديث
+
+165
+00:16:45,980 --> 00:16:51,580
+السابقة المطلقة ليس هو محوه من صدور حافظه ولكن
+
+166
+00:16:51,580 --> 00:17:00,470
+معناه أن يموت حمله ويتخذ الناس جهالا يحكمون
+
+167
+00:17:00,470 --> 00:17:10,230
+بجهالتهم فيضلون ويضلون وقال الإمام الذهبي وما
+
+168
+00:17:10,230 --> 00:17:16,110
+أوتوا من العلم إلا قليلا وأما اليوم فما بقي من
+
+169
+00:17:16,110 --> 00:17:22,780
+العلوم القليلة إلا القليل في أناس قليل ما أقل من
+
+170
+00:17:22,780 --> 00:17:27,180
+يعلم منهم بذلك القليل فحسبنا الله ونعم الوكيل هذا
+
+171
+00:17:27,180 --> 00:17:32,040
+في زمن الذهبي عليه الرحمة الله فما بالنا في زماننا
+
+172
+00:17:32,040 --> 00:17:37,800
+ما بالنا في زماننا وقد ابتعدنا عن زمن أو عن عهد
+
+173
+00:17:37,800 --> 00:17:43,680
+النبوة فكثر الجهل وقبض العلم كما أخبر النبي صلى
+
+174
+00:17:43,680 --> 00:17:48,780
+الله عليه وسلم إذا هذه علامة أيضا من علامات الساعة
+
+175
+00:17:48,780 --> 00:17:55,430
+الصغرى قبض العلم قبض العلم فقبض العلم يكون بقبض
+
+176
+00:17:55,430 --> 00:18:02,670
+العلماء بموت هؤلاء العلماء الموسوعيين الذين يعرفون
+
+177
+00:18:02,670 --> 00:18:11,870
+أو يتحدثون ويُكتبون ويؤلفون في علوم شتى علامة
+
+178
+00:18:11,870 --> 00:18:18,970
+أخرى ولعلها من أغرب العلامات العلامة التي قبل
+
+179
+00:18:18,970 --> 00:18:25,470
+الأخيرة والأخيرة قبل الأخيرة تحاصر العراق ويُمنع
+
+180
+00:18:25,470 --> 00:18:31,750
+عنها الطعام والمساعدات والأخيرة ثم تحاصر الشام
+
+181
+00:18:31,750 --> 00:18:37,550
+سوريا ولبنان والأردن وفلسطين يقال لها بلاد
+
+182
+00:18:37,550 --> 00:18:43,530
+الشام إذا تحاصر العراق هذه علامة من علامات الساعة
+
+183
+00:18:43,530 --> 00:18:50,280
+الصغرى ويُمنع عنها الطعام والشراب والمساعدات وليس
+
+184
+00:18:50,280 --> 00:18:54,360
+العراق فحسب إنما أيضا بلاد الشام أيضا تحاصر
+
+185
+00:18:54,360 --> 00:19:00,520
+سوريا ولبنان والأردن وفلسطين فيمنع عنهم أيضا
+
+186
+00:19:00,520 --> 00:19:06,420
+الطعام والشراب وكما قلت هاتان العلامتان السابقتان
+
+187
+00:19:06,420 --> 00:19:11,400
+من أعجب ما أخبر به النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم أنه
+
+188
+00:19:11,400 --> 00:19:18,620
+سيكون في آخر الزمن فقد وقع هذا حصار العراق حصار
+
+189
+00:19:18,620 --> 00:19:26,140
+العراق وحصار فلسطين والآن سوريا تحاصر وتحقق قول
+
+190
+00:19:26,140 --> 00:19:30,220
+نبينا المعصوم صلى الله عليه وسلم الذي لا ينطق عن
+
+191
+00:19:30,220 --> 00:19:35,840
+الهوى لنسمع ماذا يقول نبينا صلى الله عليه وسلم قال
+
+192
+00:19:35,840 --> 00:19:42,600
+يوشك أهل العراق أن لا يجب إليهم قفيز ولا درهم
+
+193
+00:19:43,910 --> 00:19:50,450
+قفيز ولا درهم القفيز هو إناء عندهم مكيال من المكاييل
+
+194
+00:19:50,450 --> 00:19:58,270
+ولا درهم الدراهم هي نوع من العملة النقود يوشك أهل
+
+195
+00:19:58,270 --> 00:20:02,410
+العراق أن لا يجب إليهم قفيز ولا درهم قلنا من أين
+
+196
+00:20:02,410 --> 00:20:08,810
+ذلك؟ من الذي يفعل ذلك؟ قال من قبل العجم يمنعون ذلك
+
+197
+00:20:08,810 --> 00:20:14,920
+العجم الأجانب الغرب أوروبا وأمريكا ثم قال يوشك أهل
+
+198
+00:20:14,920 --> 00:20:25,200
+الشام أن لا يجب عليهم دينار ولا مد والمد هو ما
+
+199
+00:20:25,200 --> 00:20:32,740
+يُعرف بإيه بكف اليدين بالكفين قلنا من أين ذلك قال
+
+200
+00:20:32,740 --> 00:20:38,700
+من قبل الروم يمنعون ذلك من قبل الروم يمنعون ذلك
+
+201
+00:20:38,700 --> 00:20:44,350
+ونحن الآن في العام الحادي عشر من حصار بلاد الشام
+
+202
+00:20:44,350 --> 00:20:49,370
+تحاصر فلسطين تحديدا وغزة تحديدا تحاصر للعام
+
+203
+00:20:49,370 --> 00:20:53,630
+الحادي عشر فهذا ما أخبر به نبينا صلى الله عليه
+
+204
+00:20:53,630 --> 00:20:59,190
+وسلم هذه العلامات علامات الساعة الصغرى التي أخبر
+
+205
+00:20:59,190 --> 00:21:03,970
+بها النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم هذا غيظ من فيض هذا
+
+206
+00:21:03,970 --> 00:21:11,240
+شيء قليل من كثير فلو أردت أن أستقصي علامات الساعة
+
+207
+00:21:11,240 --> 00:21:17,300
+الصغرى نحتاج إلى لقاءات عديدة لقاءات عديدة فقد
+
+208
+00:21:17,300 --> 00:21:23,840
+ألف فيها العلماء مؤلفات تحت عنوان الفتن والملاحم
+
+209
+00:21:23,840 --> 00:21:30,580
+التي تكون في آخر الزمان لو رجعنا إلى كتاب البداية
+
+210
+00:21:30,580 --> 00:21:35,580
+والنهاية لو رجعنا إلى النهاية من كتاب البداية
+
+211
+00:21:35,580 --> 00:21:40,300
+والنهاية النهاية لا نريد البداية البداية تحدثت عن
+
+212
+00:21:40,300 --> 00:21:46,360
+التاريخ أما النهاية فتحدثت عن ما يكون في مقتبل
+
+213
+00:21:46,360 --> 00:21:51,420
+الزمان في آخر الزمان ما يحصل لهذه الأمة ما يحصل
+
+214
+00:21:51,420 --> 00:21:57,640
+لهذه الأمة وهي جلها معظمها مما تحدث به النبي صلى
+
+215
+00:21:57,640 --> 00:22:02,880
+الله عليه وسلم من علامات الساعة الصغرى والكبرى فهذه
+
+216
+00:22:02,880 --> 00:22:06,900
+العلامات تنطبق أشد المطابقة على هذا العصر الذي
+
+217
+00:22:06,900 --> 00:22:14,240
+نعيشه، غير أن قتامة هذه الصورة التي تحدثنا عنها، لا
+
+218
+00:22:14,240 --> 00:22:19,510
+تدفعنا إلى اليأس والقنوط بل إن ما تحقق منها أولا
+
+219
+00:22:19,510 --> 00:22:25,570
+يزيدنا إيمانا ويقينا بصدق نبينا صلى الله عليه
+
+220
+00:22:25,570 --> 00:22:30,830
+وسلم ويزيدنا يقينا أيضا وإيمانا بأن العلامات
+
+221
+00:22:30,830 --> 00:22:34,650
+التي أخبر بها النبي صلى الله عليه وسلم والتي لم
+
+222
+00:22:34,650 --> 00:22:39,890
+نتحدث عنها سواء من العلامات الصغرى أو ما سيأتي مما
+
+223
+00:22:39,890 --> 00:22:44,970
+سنتحدث عنه من علامات الساعة الكبرى أنه سيكون لا
+
+224
+00:22:44,970 --> 00:22:51,810
+محالة ومنها نزول عيسى عليه السلام ومن قبله خروج
+
+225
+00:22:51,810 --> 00:22:57,470
+المهدي عليه السلام وعودة حكم الإسلام عودة حكم ربنا
+
+226
+00:22:57,470 --> 00:23:02,960
+تبارك وتعالى في هذه الأرض قبل قيام الساعة فهذا مما
+
+227
+00:23:02,960 --> 00:23:09,000
+نعتقد به ونعول عليه بمشيئة الله تبارك وتعالى نكتفي
+
+228
+00:23:09,000 --> 00:23:13,060
+بهذا القدر أقول قول هذا وأستغفر الله لي ولكم
+
+229
+00:23:13,060 --> 00:23:15,580
+والسلام عليكم ورحمة الله وبركاته