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بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم ال .. في ال previous

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meeting .. في ال previous meeting في اللقاءات

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الماضية كنا نحكي عن ال interest rates و ال

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effective rate of return و حكينا على الموضوع إن

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إذا كنا احنا بنحكي .. نحسب ال effective annual

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returnif it is less than one year اذا أقل من سنة

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we can use this calculation or this equation and

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if it is greater than one year so we can use this

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onethis is the idea of the interest rate of return

10
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so the most important thing is coming in the

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further stages الشغلات الأهم من هي هي جاية في

12
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الصفحات الجاية اللي هنعمل عليها تطبيق يعني هذا مش

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كتير انه احنا بس introduction لكم هنطبق في

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اللقاءات الجاية how we can use the interest rate

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of return كيف ممكن نستخدم ال interest rate of

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00:01:22,190 --> 00:01:28,510
return if you look carefully at this tableنتطلع ال

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relationship between treasury bills and the

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inflation العلاقة بين ال treasury bills و بين ال

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inflation and this is a very important

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relationship between inflation and the treasury

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bills rate of return يعني كتير مهم أنحن نعرف

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العلاقة بين التدخمو بين العقد التدخم وبين العقد

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اللي هو ال interest rate و ال inflation طيب لو

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احنا طلعنا على ال treasury bills in 1926 it is 3

25
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.71 okay the real treasury bills is 0.70 the

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inflation is 3.10 just focus onعن هذا، لذلك،

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عمليات التحذير الواحدة من 10 هي 3.70 والتحذير 3

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.10، فماذا تفهمين من هذا؟ هذا يعني أنه عندما

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تزداد التحذير، انظر إلى التحذير عندما تزداد

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التحذير، تتقل عمليات التحذير الحقيقةand this is

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what we yes this is what we said in before three

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meetings حكينا ان ال R small r is equal R minus I

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ال I when I increase R decrease كل ما ال I بتزيد

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ال inflation بتزيد كل ما ال R small r decrease طيب

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look at treasury bills and inflation if you look

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at the chart اذا احنا طلعنا عن ال chart if you

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look at this chart this

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is .. هي is the treasury bills هذا هو ال treasury

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bills and this is R of treasury billsإذا قررنا أن

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هذا 3.7 في جميعهم، فهذا 3.71 في جميعهم، فهذا 3.71

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في جميعهم، فهذا 3.71 في جميعهم، فهذا 3.71 في

42
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جميعهم، فهذا 3.71 في جميعهم، فهذا 3.71 في جميعهم،

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فهذا 3.71 في جميعهم، فهذا 3.71 في جميعهم، فهذا 3

44
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.71 في جميعهم، فهذا 3.71 في جميعهم، فهذا 3.71 في

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جميعهم، فهذا 3.71 في جميعهم، فهذا 3.10 في جميعهم،

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فهذا 3.10 في جميعهم، فهذا 3.10 في جميعهم، فهذا 3

47
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.10 في جميعهم، فهذا 3.10 في جميعهم،

48
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فهذا

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00:04:15,150 --> 00:04:23,350
.70 sorry okay approximately look

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at here if we look carefully at this خليني بس

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أعالكم zooming out أكبر الصورة عشان ت understand

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this

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this is a very very important if you don't

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understand this it means you will challenge

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problems in the in the next three four pages اذا

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مافهمتوش هذه العلاقة هتكون عندكم مشكلة في كمان

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00:04:52,260 --> 00:04:58,000
اربع خمس صفحات شوفوا هيك you

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know this this is security market line هذا هو

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security market line and this is treasury bills as

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I said all of thisis R which is equal to 3.71 so

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the nominal R is the nominal the nominal of the

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treasury bills is 3.71 as in the table here 3.71

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the inflation rate is 3 is this area 3.10

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this is I so I is three point one so now according

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to this chart حسب ال chart هان this is the real

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rate of return R just apply this equation R small

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R is equal big R minus I so this is big R all of

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thisminus I so we get .. we end up with small r

69
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okay so if you increase I look at this if you

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increase I, R becomes smaller and smaller يعني كل

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00:06:22,830 --> 00:06:25,930
ما احنا بنزود ال I، ال I بتصير smaller and smaller

72
00:06:27,300 --> 00:06:31,680
بتصير ال small r the real rate of return becomes

73
00:06:31,680 --> 00:06:35,900
smaller and smaller يعني بتبدأ تنخفض ال real rate

74
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of return what

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you observe then what we observe we observe many

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things ايش احنا بنلاحظ؟ بنلاحظ كتير أشياء ال first

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one we have a negative relationship between small

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r and Ias I become bigger and bigger, R becomes

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smaller and smaller يعني كل ما ال I بتكبر ال R

80
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بتبدأ تزال okay just from the chart point of view

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من وجهة نظر ال chart we know this from the

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equation point of view يعني احنا فاهمين الكلام هذا

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من وجهة نظر ال equation as the equation saying and

84
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this is

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this table is an accurate table and a real table

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from the united states هذا هو table صحيح من ال

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united states from nineteen twenty six to two

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thousand and nine يعني هذا من سنة الف وتسعمائة

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وتسعت وعشرين لسنة الف وتسعمائة لسنة الفين وتسعة

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هذا ال table صحيح okay so the the real treasury

91
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bills is point seventy so the the one observation

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is as as i explainedthe one observation is when I

93
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become bigger and bigger R become smaller and

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smaller يعني كل ما بتكبر ال I كل ما ال R real كل

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ما كانت decrease other factors are equal other

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factors and equal معسبات العوامل أخرى other

97
00:08:12,310 --> 00:08:18,720
factors are equal okay nowif you compare between

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the 1968 with 1968,

99
00:08:25,220 --> 00:08:33,420
2009 and 1926, 1967 اتصلح وانشوف احنا بال .. لو

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قررنا ال 1968 ل 2009 مع ال 1926 ل 1967 what you

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00:08:39,920 --> 00:08:45,560
observe the treasury billsis greater than .. the

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real .. sorry .. the treasury bills is greater

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than the R nominal of treasury bills in the recent

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years is greater than in the .. in the early .. in

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the .. in the previous years نتطلع في ال .. في

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السابق كان عند ال .. في السابق كان عند ال .. ال

107
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real .. sorry ال nominal rate of return one point

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sixty sevenيعني من سنة ال 26 لل 67 كان عندى 1.67

109
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اللى هو ال nominal rate of return من سنة ال 68 ل

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2009 ال nominal rate of return زد you know why؟ في

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حد بعرف ليش؟ from the chart from the table look at

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the table how much the inflation increaseyou are

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right الinflation هو السبب يعني انتوا لاحظوا انه

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طلع انت just compare this with this انه كان five

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point seventy five sorry في السنوات الأخيرة بعد

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سبعة و تمانية و ستين ال nominal rate of return

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five point seventy five في السبتة و عشرين و سبعة و

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ستين قديما1.67 why؟ ليش .. سؤال .. سؤال مختصر ليش

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ال nominal rate of return زاد في الفترات الأخيرة

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فاطمة she said because of inflation look at this

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the inflation because of the .. اه ال inflation

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زاد فطبيعي بالظبط شايفين فعلاقة ترضية اذا هاي this

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is the first the secondthe second relation is as

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long as I increase as long as I increase sorry I

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increase

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when I is become grow .. become bigger and bigger

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the big R become bigger and bigger so this is

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positive relation between between the nominal rate

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of return and I look at here this is the second لو

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احنا طلعنا على الشغل التاني from the table look at

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the table لاحظنا ال inflation صغيرة شايفين شو ال

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nominal rate of return صغير صار لاحظنا ال

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inflation زادت ال nominal rate of return شو صار

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فيه decrease

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Okay يعني هاي .. هاي سبب .. يعني هاي ملاحظة تانية

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.. the second observation هاي observation تانية

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احنا بنلاحظها لو بدنا .. okay ال real لما بيقل شو

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سبب انه بيقل؟ مناشر ال real

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.. ال real بيقل okay هاي ال realبدي أقل متى بيقل

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ال real بيقل عشان ال inflation بتزيد يعني

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ال real هان is a function of خد بالك ال real is

142
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independent مستقل عفوا عامل تابع لل is dependent

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00:12:05,350 --> 00:12:08,870
عامل تابع لل .. إذا ال inflation هو اللي بيعمل كل

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المشكلة ال I هي عاملة كل المشكلة ليش؟

145
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المفروض يكون اقل يطلع ايش ال .. ال real هذا اه بس

146
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خد بالك ان ال treasure bills زادت و ال inflation

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زادت فالفرق بين اتهم خلى ال real يزيد كمان طبعا

148
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الفرق يعني الفرق هذا نقص هذا بيخلى يزيد طيب هذا

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لأنه التنين نازلين فبيخلى الفرق نازلهذا ال spread

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بيسموه طيب

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فى

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حد عنده ملاحظات تانية طيب نتطلع على ال .. ستة و

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00:13:01,800 --> 00:13:09,160
عشرين اربعة و ستة عشر اتطلعوا

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على ال charts اكتر inflation ال risk اتطلعوا نتطلع

155
00:13:15,240 --> 00:13:18,930
على ال riskهذا هو ال .. until هو average annual

156
00:13:18,930 --> 00:13:22,310
return هذا الجانب هو return و هذا الجانب اسمه risk

157
00:13:22,310 --> 00:13:24,770
لان هاي standard deviation of annual return

158
00:13:24,770 --> 00:13:30,610
standard deviation of annual return نتطلع احنا على

159
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ال risk بتاع ال inflation تدخم وين

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كان اكتر فيه اكتر تدخم موجود من 26 ل 67 ليش طيب

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تعرفوا حداشر why thisليش كان ال risk من سنة ال 26

162
00:13:50,940 --> 00:13:55,080
ل 67 أعلى risk؟

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00:13:55,080 --> 00:14:04,760
في أهم من الحروب كانت في سنة 1929 شو كان لنا؟ big

164
00:14:04,760 --> 00:14:07,400
recession because of the big recession the big

165
00:14:07,400 --> 00:14:11,260
recession this is why the inflation rate is

166
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greater than any other stages

167
00:14:15,630 --> 00:14:20,010
because of the big recession الكساد الكبير في فترة

168
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الكساد الكبير ودخلت اوروبا بحرب ضد الحلفة وطلعت

169
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الحرب العالمية التانية فصار الكل يعمل يعمل سك عملة

170
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بدون ما يكون مدعوم العملة من ال .. بالدهب وبالتالي

171
00:14:37,370 --> 00:14:41,390
كان ال .. صار في inflation عالي كتير تضخم عالي

172
00:14:41,390 --> 00:14:45,150
خلصنا أول ملاحظة تاني ملاحظة

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الملاحظة التالتة اللى هنخرج فيها خلصنا أول ملاحظة

174
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ناخد الملاحظة التالتة the third one the third one

175
00:15:01,400 --> 00:15:05,120
if you look at this moderate inflation can offset

176
00:15:05,120 --> 00:15:08,840
most of the nominal gains on low risk investments

177
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ملاحظة تالتة انتبهوا للمكتوبها بال slidemoderate

178
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inflation can offset most of the nominal gains on

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low risk investments المشكلة وين؟ المشكلة أن ال

180
00:15:25,490 --> 00:15:31,550
lower risk instruments hold the majority of the

181
00:15:31,550 --> 00:15:38,330
systematic risk in other words بكلمات أخرى the

182
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lower risk investments

183
00:15:42,110 --> 00:15:49,450
is subject to the impact of the systematic risk or

184
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is a subject of the impact of the inflation rate

185
00:15:51,770 --> 00:15:59,390
than any other securities يعني الأدوات

186
00:15:59,390 --> 00:16:05,170
المالية قليلة المخاطر بتأثر بأكتر من أي أداء

187
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استثمارية أخرى بالتدخم خلينا نشوف المثال هذاشوفوا

188
00:16:09,700 --> 00:16:12,560
ال treasury bills انقرن ال treasury bills مع ال

189
00:16:12,560 --> 00:16:15,840
commercial paper احنا we sell commercial paper is

190
00:16:15,840 --> 00:16:21,620
one of the money market securities my question is

191
00:16:21,620 --> 00:16:25,680
which is hold higher risk او lower risk؟ مين بيحمل

192
00:16:25,680 --> 00:16:28,200
lower risk? treasury bills or commercial paper؟

193
00:16:28,200 --> 00:16:32,920
commercial paperإرادة my question like this yes

194
00:16:32,920 --> 00:16:36,560
treasury bills who's holding lower risk treasury

195
00:16:36,560 --> 00:16:41,140
bills okay so treasury bills holding lower risk

196
00:16:41,140 --> 00:16:53,080
fine yes okay يعني أقل مخاطر أقل مخاطر ال treasury

197
00:16:53,080 --> 00:17:03,520
bills بتحمل أقل مخاطرطبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا

198
00:17:03,520 --> 00:17:09,360
طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا

199
00:17:09,360 --> 00:17:13,000
طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا

200
00:17:13,000 --> 00:17:18,180
طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا طبعا

201
00:17:24,630 --> 00:17:27,670
the majority of the systematic risk انتبهوا لكلام

202
00:17:27,670 --> 00:17:30,970
اللي انا بحكي فيه the majority of systematic risk

203
00:17:30,970 --> 00:17:36,770
is inflation ايش يعني حكيته؟ the majority of

204
00:17:36,770 --> 00:17:44,070
systematic risk is inflation غالبية risk ايش ال

205
00:17:44,070 --> 00:17:48,690
systematic risk؟ مخاطر النظام هي تدخم يعني غالبية

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المخاطر النظامية هي تدخم يعني لو احنا لاحظنا هنا

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لأن هذا هو التضخم ال I مظبوط هذا كل هذا ال system

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of interest كله هذا هذا الجزء الكبير منه تقريبا

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جداش يعني ممكن اطلع مثلا ال لو قلنا 3.1 divided by

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3.70 جداش تطلع معاكم او 71 المخاطر النظامية كلها 3

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.71 كلها و 3.1 اللي هي ال inflation لوحدهاالغالبية

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المخاطر النظامية هي inflation تقريبا فوق 8% تقريبا

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38% طيب نطلع على ال commercial paper نطلع على ال

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commercial paper ال commercial paper لنفترض ال

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return hand 5%

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ال systematic risk او نحكي ال inflation زي ما

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بتكون ال systematic risk و ال inflation واحد ال

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inflation هي 3.1 بدنا نشوف to what extent the

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inflation influence on the commercial paper لأي

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درجة بتأثر ال systematic .. ال inflation بيأثر على

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ال commercial paper بنقول 3.1 divided by 5 اللي هو

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ال 5 5 percent جداش تطلع في النسبة المقوية؟

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كم؟ 62% خلّينا نقارن بين هذه وبين هذه هذه ال

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treasury bills وهذه ال commercial paper تلاتة و

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تمانية في المية معناه ان ال inflation أثرت على ال

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treasury bills بتلاتة و تمانية في المية which is

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higher أكتر طب نشوف ال commercial paper أداش أثرت

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عليها أقل اذا هاي commercial paper وهذه ال

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treasury bills انجرب ال stocks انجرب ايش ال stocks

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الـ stocks مثلا نفترض أنها 9% عقل 9% نشوف .. نشوف

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ال inflation rate هداش بتأثر بال stocks نفس .. نفس

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الفكرة 3.1 divided by 9% عشان نشوف هداش بتأثر

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عليها 34% 34% نقارن التلات نتائج ببعض look at this

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83%والذي هو أعلى، الورق التجاربي مصطلح، الأسعار هي

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فرصة الاستثمار أو فرصة استثمار على

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on the rate of return is less than the impact of

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treasury bills of the inflation on the treasury

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bills يعني أثر التضخم على الأسهم أقل من أثر التضخم

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على ال treasury bills هذه الملاحظة التالتة اللي هي

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هان لو كتبناكوا إياها the influence of

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inflation

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أو بنجوسانيه systematic risk because inflation is

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systematic risk on

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the influence of inflation or systematic risk on

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the treasury bills is

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higher than any other securitiesany other

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securities زي ما إنتوا إحنا شايفين يعني أثر ال

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inflation على ال treasury bills أكثر من أثر ال

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inflation على أي security أخرى خليني أجرب ال

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derivatives مشتقات العقل

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بتاع المشتقات نفترض مثلا 70%

252
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نقسم هان three point one اللي هى ال inflation

253
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divided by seventy كدهش بتطلع؟

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three point one divided by seventy three

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point one divided by seventy اربعمية و اربعمية

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ماقول اربعمية يعني اربعمية او اربعميةلأ three

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point one divided بس تلاتة فاصلة سبعة بتطلع zero

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zero something أكام

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zero عد؟ zero واحد أربعة و أربعين يعني بتأثر عليها

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ب أربعة point أربعة percent أربعة فاصلة أربعة في

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المية يعني بتأثر ال inflation على ال derivatives

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بس ب أربعة فاصلة أربعة في المية so we conclude

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00:23:08,140 --> 00:23:12,330
thatthe treasury bills is more subject to

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inflation than any other securities يعني أنا بحاول

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بعطيكوا إياها بعدد لهجات و بعدد context بحيث أنه

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you digest this يعني بحاول كذا طريقة أنه تصلكم

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المعلومة okay

268
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فإذا ال inflation rates بيأثر كتير على .. عنو

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أكتر؟ ال lower securities ولا ال higher .. ال

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lower risk securities ولا ال higher risk .. lower

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.. lower risk لأن زي ما إحنا شايفين .. طب نشوف

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ليش؟ why؟ إيش السبب؟ إحنا حكينا إن ال fee بيصير

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هيك but why؟ why .. why the .. the lower

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securitieswhile the lower .. the higher securities

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or the higher risk securities fight

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against inflation يعني تواجه الinflation because

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investors .. أساس ال inflation مفرق واعرز okay طيب

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الشغل اللي بتأثر كده هو ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال

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00:24:24,450 --> 00:24:24,550
.. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال ..

280
00:24:24,550 --> 00:24:24,930
ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال

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00:24:24,930 --> 00:24:27,130
.. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال .. ال ..

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00:24:28,880 --> 00:24:32,820
يعني ان الinflation هو أسس المعنى المعدد هو system

283
00:24:32,820 --> 00:24:39,560
of risk هو مخاطر نظامية عشان

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هيك ال lower risk يتأثر فيها أكتر لسبب واضح ان ال

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securities ال lower risk securities they don't

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00:24:47,680 --> 00:24:53,120
have a premium ماعندهم مش علامة عندهم مش ال ال ال

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00:24:53,120 --> 00:24:59,820
the R is small اه the real R is smallReal R إيش هي

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00:24:59,820 --> 00:25:05,980
ال real R؟ لو إجينا إحنا طلعوها أخدنا ال real R مش

289
00:25:05,980 --> 00:25:13,400
هادي R ال real R هادي R بس لاحظولي على ال real R

290
00:25:13,400 --> 00:25:19,820
سابتة لأ كيف يا بابا سابتة عادة ايوة ال real R

291
00:25:19,820 --> 00:25:24,580
شوفي هذا هذا ال real R بعملك عليه هيك هو real R

292
00:25:27,100 --> 00:25:30,200
اللي بعمل عليه cross هو real R ايش بتلاحظوا انتوا

293
00:25:30,200 --> 00:25:37,180
بال real R؟ كل ما بيجيب بتزيد ايوة شوفوا ال real R

294
00:25:37,180 --> 00:25:40,840
هان، قارنوا ال real R هان small r مش احنا قولنا ال

295
00:25:40,840 --> 00:25:46,300
real R هي ال R .. هذه ال R كلها nominal minus ال I

296
00:25:46,300 --> 00:25:52,480
فإيش بتلاحظوا ال R؟ شو بيصير فيها؟ ال increase

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00:25:52,480 --> 00:25:52,860
because

298
00:25:56,850 --> 00:26:02,030
the real R has a positive function with the risk

299
00:26:02,030 --> 00:26:11,270
هذا حطوها في بالكم R the small R هتطلعوا على ال

300
00:26:11,270 --> 00:26:15,190
charts look at this chart look at this R شوفوا ال

301
00:26:15,190 --> 00:26:19,070
R هذه شايفينها which is bigger this one or this

302
00:26:19,070 --> 00:26:27,560
onethis one اذا حكينا هذه R نود هذي R1 R2 R3 R4

303
00:26:27,560 --> 00:26:36,120
طلعوا على R1 ال R1 ايه؟ حكينا فيها ال real of

304
00:26:36,120 --> 00:26:39,940
commercial paper ال real for the bonds ال real for

305
00:26:39,940 --> 00:26:43,520
the stocks ال real for the derivatives طلعوا ال

306
00:26:43,520 --> 00:26:46,380
real بتاعة ال commercial paper is greater than the

307
00:26:46,380 --> 00:26:52,050
real of the treasury bills why؟because the higher

308
00:26:52,050 --> 00:26:57,610
the risk the higher are كل ما بتزيد ال risk كل ما

309
00:26:57,610 --> 00:27:02,450
ال R بتزيد طيب look at here again the higher the

310
00:27:02,450 --> 00:27:06,050
risk ال risk مشي زاد so the higher the R

311
00:27:09,260 --> 00:27:15,400
bigger and bigger as the risk become bigger and

312
00:27:15,400 --> 00:27:19,920
bigger as a result of risk طيب خلينا إذا .. إذا

313
00:27:19,920 --> 00:27:27,100
تلاتة ناخد أربعة .. أربعة saying as sigma .. sigma

314
00:27:27,100 --> 00:27:33,960
is a measure of risk as sigma increase as

315
00:27:33,960 --> 00:27:37,140
sigma increases R increases

316
00:27:40,380 --> 00:27:46,620
Okay, so this is the relation زي number four

317
00:27:46,620 --> 00:27:51,740
مراحظة رقم أربعة زي ما sigma بتزيد طبعا ايه sigma؟

318
00:27:51,740 --> 00:27:57,700
sigma مخاطر هى هى دى sigma اه بيسموها risk امشوا

319
00:27:57,700 --> 00:28:01,000
هيك يمين بتلاقيه ال R بتزيد because of systematic

320
00:28:01,000 --> 00:28:05,800
because of the total risk increase لإن ال total

321
00:28:05,800 --> 00:28:10,600
risk قاعد بزيدو كل ما زاد ال S كل ما زادت ال R ال

322
00:28:10,600 --> 00:28:16,660
R صغيرة الملاحظة الرابعة as sigma increases ايش

323
00:28:16,660 --> 00:28:19,840
sigma عارفين شو sigma ال standard deviation بتاعة

324
00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:24,160
التو اللي حكينا فيها ليه هذه standard deviation

325
00:28:24,160 --> 00:28:29,340
اللي هو standard deviation okay as sigma increases

326
00:28:29,340 --> 00:28:36,810
كل ما sigma زادت كل ما R increasesكل ما R .. ال

327
00:28:36,810 --> 00:28:42,410
real rate of return كل ما كان زائد زي ما انتوا

328
00:28:42,410 --> 00:28:46,010
شايفين بال chart هو على حال ال chart يعني لو انا

329
00:28:46,010 --> 00:28:51,010
هيك طلعت .. طلعت .. اه

330
00:28:51,010 --> 00:28:56,450
.. كيف؟ ال R ال real دايما بتكون تربيه معاها اللي

331
00:28:56,450 --> 00:29:00,130
هي .. معاها بال .. معاها بال .. بال total risk

332
00:29:00,130 --> 00:29:04,330
خدوا بالك بال total risk okay طيب خلصنا الملاحظات

333
00:29:04,330 --> 00:29:04,570
هذه

334
00:29:15,920 --> 00:29:19,180
Okay وهي هم a dollar invested in treasury bills

335
00:29:19,180 --> 00:29:21,440
from nineteen twenty six two thousand grow to

336
00:29:21,440 --> 00:29:26,300
twenty dollar but with a real value only شوفوا رغم

337
00:29:26,300 --> 00:29:30,160
انه لو احنا استثمرنا دولار واحد شوفوا لو احنا

338
00:29:30,160 --> 00:29:35,220
استثمرنا دولار واحد في سنة الستة وعشرين لسنة الفين

339
00:29:35,220 --> 00:29:39,170
وتسعة هنستفيد عشرين دولارلكن استفادتنا الحقيقية

340
00:29:39,170 --> 00:29:44,890
كم؟ 1.69$ نرجع ال table لو احنا استثمرنا دولار

341
00:29:44,890 --> 00:29:48,410
واحد في ال treasury bills بسنة ستة وعشرين الفين

342
00:29:48,410 --> 00:29:53,670
وتسعة استفادتنا الحقيقية just point seventy طلع

343
00:29:53,670 --> 00:29:58,090
لأن في عندى inflation عالي كتير لو احنا استثمرنا

344
00:29:58,090 --> 00:30:01,550
من التمانية وستين للألفين وتسعة دولار واحد تمانية

345
00:30:01,550 --> 00:30:05,090
وستين استفادتنا بس one point seventeenالحففية ال

346
00:30:05,090 --> 00:30:10,130
real لو احنا استثمرنا من ال 26 لل 67 يعني استثمرنا

347
00:30:10,130 --> 00:30:15,250
يعني تلاتين سنة تقريبا لو استثمرنا دول لو احنا لسا

348
00:30:15,250 --> 00:30:17,290
في just point twenty four percent

349
00:30:20,200 --> 00:30:23,960
Okay بأكد الكلام لو احنا استثمرنا دولار واحد بال

350
00:30:23,960 --> 00:30:26,160
treasury bills من ستة و عشرين ل الفين و دسعة

351
00:30:26,160 --> 00:30:29,560
هنستفيد عشرين دولار بقى ال reality احنا مستفدناش

352
00:30:29,560 --> 00:30:32,780
لعشرين دولار استفدنا just طب ليش الفرق قد صار

353
00:30:32,780 --> 00:30:37,480
because of what because of inflation لأنه ال

354
00:30:37,480 --> 00:30:40,560
inflation هو عمل الكلام هذا طبعا بنات بتعرفوش

355
00:30:40,560 --> 00:30:46,140
معناه inflation تدخم okay okay طيب

356
00:30:49,580 --> 00:30:59,840
طب كيف أنا بدي أعرف العلاقة بين الinflation و

357
00:30:59,840 --> 00:31:04,800
بين ال R بقيس أنا ال correlation سمعتوا في شغل

358
00:31:04,800 --> 00:31:09,320
اسمها ال correlation الارتباط بقيس الارتباط في

359
00:31:09,320 --> 00:31:11,720
فترة من الفترات كان الارتباط إيجابي بين

360
00:31:11,720 --> 00:31:14,980
الinflation و between real rate of return وفترات

361
00:31:14,980 --> 00:31:20,340
أخرى صار سلبي خلّيني نشوفnegative correlation

362
00:31:20,340 --> 00:31:24,460
between real rates and inflation rates means that

363
00:31:24,460 --> 00:31:27,940
nominal rate responds less than 1.1 to changes in

364
00:31:27,940 --> 00:31:31,740
the expected inflation هذه هنشرحها، طلعواها،

365
00:31:31,740 --> 00:31:34,360
طلعواها على ال chart، بدنا نحكي عن ال correlation

366
00:31:34,360 --> 00:31:40,580
ال correlation اللي هو الارتباط الارتباط بين ال

367
00:31:40,580 --> 00:31:45,100
real rate of return و الinflation و التضخم هو

368
00:31:45,100 --> 00:31:50,310
ارتباط سلبي، negativeارتباط سلبي negative okay

369
00:31:50,310 --> 00:31:56,490
لأنهم بيمشوا عكس بعض ننتبه هان نرجع كيف سلبي كل ما

370
00:31:56,490 --> 00:32:02,610
زودنا ال inflation ال I كل ما ال R بتنزل فهذا ايش

371
00:32:02,610 --> 00:32:06,590
يسموه correlation معله negative okay negative كيف

372
00:32:06,590 --> 00:32:09,230
نقيسه بال Excel طبعا مش مطلوب منكوا تقيسوه بال

373
00:32:09,230 --> 00:32:13,530
Excel بس كيف نقيسه نجيب ال I و نجيب ال R real rate

374
00:32:13,530 --> 00:32:18,130
of return و بنعمل يسوي correlationالارتباط بيطلع

375
00:32:18,130 --> 00:32:21,090
عندنا الارتباط وبعدين بيطلع عندنا الرسمة هذه لو

376
00:32:21,090 --> 00:32:27,750
حبنا احنا نرسمها اتطلعوا ال correlation spend one

377
00:32:27,750 --> 00:32:32,950
minute to look at this chart يعني فاكروا ده فيخة

378
00:32:32,950 --> 00:32:37,290
واحدة عشان تفكروا بهال chart and what you observe

379
00:32:37,290 --> 00:32:46,610
on this chart okay يالا بدنا نشوف answer منكميلا

380
00:32:46,610 --> 00:32:54,510
answer me in nineteen twenty six we have .. we

381
00:32:54,510 --> 00:32:57,890
haven't inflation we .. we haven't inflation؟ yes

382
00:32:57,890 --> 00:33:02,650
we have inflation or we .. يعني لك ساعات okay من

383
00:33:02,650 --> 00:33:05,670
ستة و عشرين لستة و تلاتين خلي بالك اول اشي ان ال

384
00:33:05,670 --> 00:33:09,370
treasury treasury bill rates اللي هو ال black one

385
00:33:09,370 --> 00:33:13,250
و ال inflation هو ال blue one okay تمام ايش كان ..

386
00:33:13,250 --> 00:33:15,570
شو بطلع اصلا؟ كانت ستة و عشرين لستة و تلاتين

387
00:33:15,800 --> 00:33:20,260
inflation okay تضخم اه و بعدين .. فى نفس اللحظة

388
00:33:20,260 --> 00:33:23,240
إيش كان فى ال treasury bills طبعا كانت معدلاتها

389
00:33:23,240 --> 00:33:26,840
تنزل شو اللي بنزل ال inflation ال treasury bills

390
00:33:26,840 --> 00:33:30,820
كانت بالأول عالية و بعدين نزلت سنة مع المعدل سبعت

391
00:33:30,820 --> 00:33:34,500
طيب و بعدين بدأت تطلع ال treasury bills و ال

392
00:33:34,500 --> 00:33:38,820
inflation بدأت تطلع okay خليني .. okay كلامك فيه

393
00:33:38,820 --> 00:33:44,240
منه صح نرادها هو عمال كانت بياكل الشراباتأه في هنا

394
00:33:44,240 --> 00:33:48,940
negative correlation طلع و هان look at this لو

395
00:33:48,940 --> 00:33:54,620
احنا كنا في النقطة هذه بس just observe on this لو

396
00:33:54,620 --> 00:33:58,040
احنا أخدنا النقطة هذه هيك نقطة ملاحظ انه ال

397
00:33:58,040 --> 00:34:02,640
treasury bills increase لكن الinflation decrease

398
00:34:02,640 --> 00:34:08,720
فال correlation ايش كان negative through the time

399
00:34:08,720 --> 00:34:12,060
مع الزمن ال correlation شو بيصير فيه بيصير

400
00:34:12,060 --> 00:34:17,170
positiveلحظة يعني ال treasury bills ال inflation

401
00:34:17,170 --> 00:34:24,190
نزل ال treasury bills نزلت معاها okay so دي اذا

402
00:34:24,190 --> 00:34:29,550
احنا بنحكي باللحظة متى اتغيرت التوجه؟ قبل ال 68

403
00:34:29,550 --> 00:34:34,130
شوفوا بال .. قبل ال 68 او قبل ال 66 كان في

404
00:34:34,130 --> 00:34:38,590
negative correlation و بعدين صار positive يعني

405
00:34:38,590 --> 00:34:42,050
صارت ال inflation تمشي بالزق .. يعني يبدو كان اول

406
00:34:42,050 --> 00:34:46,030
زمان انه ال .. ال financial الواقع ال .. مافيش

407
00:34:46,030 --> 00:34:51,270
نظام مالي يعني ال inflation مش هي ال .. ال .. the

408
00:34:51,270 --> 00:34:57,290
main .. the main systematic riskبعد هيك صارت ان ال

409
00:34:57,290 --> 00:35:00,550
treasury bills طلعوا .. طلعوا النقطة هذه في ال 76

410
00:35:00,550 --> 00:35:08,190
ال .. ال inflation زادت و ال treasury bills زادت

411
00:35:08,190 --> 00:35:11,730
ال treasury bills زادت و ال inflation زادت راحوا

412
00:35:11,730 --> 00:35:16,150
نزلوا مع بعض زي ما انتوا شايفين نزلوا مع بعض طلعوا

413
00:35:16,150 --> 00:35:20,830
مع بعضنزلوا مع بعض طلعوا مع بعض لكن لو احنا طلعنا

414
00:35:20,830 --> 00:35:26,490
back to before 1968 لو احنا طلعنا شوفوا ال

415
00:35:26,490 --> 00:35:31,530
inflation زادت هذه انخفضت او ثابتة هان مثلا شوفوا

416
00:35:31,530 --> 00:35:35,390
النقطة هذه زادت هذه انخفضت ف this is important

417
00:35:35,390 --> 00:35:39,050
make

418
00:35:39,050 --> 00:35:42,050
.. make the correlation positive بيخلي ال .. ال

419
00:35:42,050 --> 00:35:42,970
correlation positive

420
00:35:45,540 --> 00:35:48,240
الأدوات المالية بالظبط كانت ال inflation مش هي

421
00:35:48,240 --> 00:35:54,080
العامل الرئيسي لكن صارت ال .. طيب اذا هذا اللي

422
00:35:54,080 --> 00:35:59,920
احنا بدي احكي فيه اليوم و في حد عندى سؤال؟