1 00:00:21,260 --> 00:00:25,140 بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم in the last meeting we 2 00:00:25,140 --> 00:00:28,800 talked about the active or passive managers or 3 00:00:28,800 --> 00:00:31,780 managements the main difference between active and 4 00:00:31,780 --> 00:00:34,320 passive **in** regard to what extent the market is 5 00:00:34,320 --> 00:00:37,360 efficient يعني الفرق بين الـ active و الـ 6 00:00:37,360 --> 00:00:41,500 passive لأي درجة الـ market is efficient لأي 7 00:00:41,500 --> 00:00:46,540 درجة السوق المالي كفوء طبعا فالـ active 8 00:00:46,540 --> 00:00:49,820 managers think that the market is not efficient 9 00:00:51,080 --> 00:00:55,340 however the passive managers think the market is 10 00:00:55,340 --> 00:01:02,960 efficient يعني المدراء اللي بيعملوا دائما تغيير في 11 00:01:02,960 --> 00:01:06,900 الـ portfolios تبعتهم بيعتقدوا الـ market ليس كفوء 12 00:01:06,900 --> 00:01:11,740 لكن الـ managers المدراء اللي 13 00:01:11,740 --> 00:01:14,120 هم ما بيغيروا بالـ portfolios تبعتهم و passive 14 00:01:14,120 --> 00:01:17,660 بيكونوا سلبيين لتغيرات السوق بيعتقدوا أن الـ market 15 00:01:17,660 --> 00:01:20,740 is efficient and we don't need to rebalance 16 00:01:20,740 --> 00:01:23,380 our portfolios or to follow up the information 17 00:01:23,380 --> 00:01:26,380 وما بيزامش كثير أن احنا نـ نتابع 18 00:01:26,380 --> 00:01:30,000 المعلومات market efficiency and portfolio 19 00:01:30,000 --> 00:01:34,300 management let's consider the relationship between 20 00:01:34,300 --> 00:01:37,560 the market efficiency and the portfolio management 21 00:01:37,560 --> 00:01:40,780 حكينا portfolio management اللي هو إدارة المحفظة 22 00:01:40,780 --> 00:01:45,840 يمكن مش واضحة عندكم what it means portfolio خلينا 23 00:01:45,840 --> 00:01:50,280 نفترض فرضية بسيطة لو كان أنا معايا 1000$ ألف دولار 24 00:01:50,280 --> 00:01:54,860 I have two options to invest all of them in one 25 00:01:54,860 --> 00:01:59,390 stock or one security إنه أنا أستثمرهم كلهم في one 26 00:01:59,390 --> 00:02:03,970 security in one single stock يعني أستثمر كل الـ one 27 00:02:03,970 --> 00:02:10,970 thousand dollar في سهم واحد the problem of this is 28 00:02:10,970 --> 00:02:15,750 not considering the importance of risk يعني لو 29 00:02:15,750 --> 00:02:24,380 كانت a ارتفعت is fine but when a is going down this 30 00:02:24,380 --> 00:02:28,420 investor will lose his or her all money يعني الـ 31 00:02:28,420 --> 00:02:33,930 investor هيخسر كل فلوسه but if we invest this is if 32 00:02:33,930 --> 00:02:37,590 we invest in one single security إذا احنا بنستثمر 33 00:02:37,590 --> 00:02:41,490 في سهم واحد but in the portfolio management لكن 34 00:02:41,490 --> 00:02:46,290 الإدارة الاستثمارية built on the notion مبنية على 35 00:02:46,290 --> 00:02:51,190 فكرة that don't put your eggs on one basket يعني 36 00:02:51,190 --> 00:02:54,650 مانحطش البيض كله تبعنا في سلة واحدة so we can 37 00:02:54,650 --> 00:02:59,700 invest on a portfolio this portfolio includes C, B, 38 00:03:00,340 --> 00:03:07,440 A, X, Y for instance if A is going down maybe X is 39 00:03:07,440 --> 00:03:12,540 going up, C is going up, Y going up and maybe B is 40 00:03:12,540 --> 00:03:17,970 going down so it means yes so it's like is good for 41 00:03:17,970 --> 00:03:21,230 managing the risk إذا كويسة بتكون في managing the 42 00:03:21,230 --> 00:03:24,050 risk so this is the importance of the portfolio 43 00:03:24,050 --> 00:03:27,890 the portfolio the main importance of the portfolio 44 00:03:27,890 --> 00:03:32,090 is to increase the interest rate increase the rate of 45 00:03:32,090 --> 00:03:34,950 return and decrease the risk يعني الهدف في النهاية 46 00:03:34,950 --> 00:03:37,570 تبع الـ portfolio المحفظة أن احنا نزيد العائد و 47 00:03:37,570 --> 00:03:41,970 نقلل المخاطر and in the chapter five and six we 48 00:03:41,970 --> 00:03:45,060 will see how we can manage this في chapter خمسة و 49 00:03:45,060 --> 00:03:48,280 ستة هنشوف كيف أنه احنا هنعمل managing للـ portfolio 50 00:03:48,280 --> 00:03:55,240 okay so the thing is the link between the market 51 00:03:55,240 --> 00:03:58,880 efficiency and portfolio management enable the 52 00:03:58,880 --> 00:04:03,880 investor to diversify their securities بيقدروا 53 00:04:03,880 --> 00:04:07,620 ينوعوا فاحنا في الـ portfolios احنا في عندنا C في 54 00:04:07,620 --> 00:04:10,820 عندنا D في عندنا A في عندنا X و عندنا Y لأنه الـ 55 00:04:10,820 --> 00:04:14,020 market is efficient and we know the rate of return 56 00:04:14,020 --> 00:04:17,340 of C, we know the risk, we know the rate of return 57 00:04:17,340 --> 00:04:20,760 of Y, we know the risk, we know everything so this 58 00:04:20,760 --> 00:04:25,660 enable us to do diversification diversification it 59 00:04:25,660 --> 00:04:29,720 means تنويع بنقدر احنا ننوع not only the 60 00:04:29,720 --> 00:04:33,440 diversification on the securities on the stocks مش 61 00:04:33,440 --> 00:04:36,420 بس أن احنا بنقدر نعمل تنويع بالـ stocks بالأسهم 62 00:04:36,420 --> 00:04:41,420 ممكن we can create another portfolio ممكن أن احنا 63 00:04:41,420 --> 00:04:46,380 نعمل portfolio أخرى includes stocks for instance A 64 00:04:46,380 --> 00:04:51,540 ,B,R stocks we can include the treasury bills we 65 00:04:51,540 --> 00:04:56,840 can include bonds يعني ممكن احنا كمان ننوع بأنواع 66 00:04:56,840 --> 00:04:59,520 الـ securities نعمل diversification نعمل تنويع حسب 67 00:04:59,520 --> 00:05:03,600 نوع الـ securities ممكن احنا نحط أسهم و نحط سندات و 68 00:05:03,600 --> 00:05:08,020 نحط treasure bins و سندات خزينة we can also build 69 00:05:08,020 --> 00:05:10,880 another portfolio based on the geographic areas 70 00:05:10,880 --> 00:05:17,060 حسب التنويع الجغرافي for instance united states 71 00:05:17,060 --> 00:05:22,020 stocks ممكن نحط أسهم بتاعي على الـ united states UK 72 00:05:22,020 --> 00:05:28,360 stocks Asian, Asians stock أسهم آسيوية for instance 73 00:05:28,360 --> 00:05:33,620 نحط مثلا من Tokyo، من Japan، من دبي، من قطر، the 74 00:05:33,620 --> 00:05:40,640 king سعودي we can include other areas in our 75 00:05:40,640 --> 00:05:44,040 portfolios ممكن احنا نوّع المحفظة الاستثمارية ممكن 76 00:05:44,040 --> 00:05:46,280 ناخد أسهم من الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية أسهم من 77 00:05:46,280 --> 00:05:50,460 الأوروبـا أسهم من الـ UK أسهم من السعودية من دبي من 78 00:05:50,460 --> 00:05:55,240 قطر من Tokyo من ماليزيا فهي بيسموها تنويع جغرافي 79 00:05:55,240 --> 00:06:03,650 okay هذه هي الـ hypothesis التسريحية التي تساعدنا في 80 00:06:03,650 --> 00:06:09,010 تدفع ميزاتنا باستخدام الأمن باستخدام المناطق 81 00:06:09,010 --> 00:06:13,510 الجغرافية باستخدام رغبات الأمن على سبيل المثال 82 00:06:13,510 --> 00:06:20,650 نستطيع إنشاء ميزاتنا باستخدام على سبيل المثال 83 00:06:20,650 --> 00:06:30,350 أصول رخية و أصول خفية يعني ممكن احنا نعمل 84 00:06:30,350 --> 00:06:34,170 portfolio جزء منها assets فيها مخاطر و assets 85 00:06:34,170 --> 00:06:38,610 مافيهاش فيها مخاطر okay فزي ما أنتو شايفين الـ 86 00:06:38,610 --> 00:06:43,290 investors are free to form up their portfolios أن 87 00:06:43,290 --> 00:06:47,990 المستثمرين هم أحرار في يكونوا الـ portfolios تبعتهم 88 00:06:47,990 --> 00:06:52,350 ممكن يعملوا جغرافية تنمية جغرافية ممكن they can 89 00:06:52,350 --> 00:06:56,950 also diversify their portfolios based on the 90 00:06:56,950 --> 00:07:01,080 industrial level ممكن حسب الـ industrial level ممكن 91 00:07:01,080 --> 00:07:05,480 هم يستثمروا مثلا في الـ agriculture في الزراعة ممكن 92 00:07:05,480 --> 00:07:11,900 في الـ tourist السياحة ممكن يستثمروا في الـ industry 93 00:07:11,900 --> 00:07:16,640 الصناعة ممكن في الـ telecommunication okay so they 94 00:07:16,640 --> 00:07:19,980 don't need to to channel their funds to a 95 00:07:19,980 --> 00:07:25,000 particular industry يعني مابيحتاجوش أن فقط يروحوا 96 00:07:25,000 --> 00:07:28,490 يستثمروا only in the telecommunication because if 97 00:07:28,490 --> 00:07:31,690 they invest in only the telecommunication it means 98 00:07:31,690 --> 00:07:34,590 they only taking the risk of the telecommunication 99 00:07:34,590 --> 00:07:37,310 and if the telecommunication is going down all of 100 00:07:37,310 --> 00:07:39,930 their portfolios is going down so they need to 101 00:07:39,930 --> 00:07:42,830 diversify their portfolios based on the industrial 102 00:07:42,830 --> 00:07:46,830 level فعشان هيك هم محتاجين كمان يعملوا تنويع في 103 00:07:46,830 --> 00:07:49,610 المحفظة حسب الـ industrial level يعني بيستثمروا في 104 00:07:49,610 --> 00:07:52,800 العقارات في الـ real estates ممكن يستثمروا في الـ 105 00:07:52,800 --> 00:07:55,800 currencies، في العملات، ممكن يستثمروا في السياحة، 106 00:07:55,800 --> 00:07:58,560 يستثمروا في الصناعة، في الـ telecommunication، في 107 00:07:58,560 --> 00:08:01,640 .. في كل هذه يكونوا محافظ استثمارية، فإذا كانت الـ 108 00:08:01,640 --> 00:08:04,720 telecommunication is going down ممكن يكون في other 109 00:08:04,720 --> 00:08:09,520 areas is going up، يعني areas أخرى بتطلع .. تطلع، 110 00:08:09,520 --> 00:08:13,080 فهذه بدأت أخد بعين الأعتبار، إذا هذه some examples 111 00:08:13,080 --> 00:08:17,850 on how investors forming up their 112 00:08:17,850 --> 00:08:21,370 portfolios كيف هم بيكونوا المحفظة الاستثمارية 113 00:08:21,370 --> 00:08:27,610 بناء على شو هم بدهم Okay ف the efficient markets 114 00:08:27,610 --> 00:08:32,390 helping them to forming a good diversified 115 00:08:32,390 --> 00:08:36,730 portfolio لتساعدهم بأنهم يحصلوا على تنويع ممتاز من 116 00:08:36,730 --> 00:08:39,670 المحفظة الاستثمارية and as I said the main 117 00:08:39,670 --> 00:08:43,310 objective of doing this is to reduce the risk يعني 118 00:08:43,310 --> 00:08:47,330 الهدف أن احنا نخفض المخاطر اللي بتتحملها الـ 119 00:08:47,330 --> 00:08:53,370 investors The second most important thing is 120 00:08:53,370 --> 00:08:57,990 appropriate risk level if we look at the 121 00:08:57,990 --> 00:09:03,890 portfolios the investors they try to assign which 122 00:09:03,890 --> 00:09:08,490 risk they can apply 123 00:09:08,490 --> 00:09:12,190 يعني بيقدروا من خلال الـ portfolio يقولوا احنا بدنا 124 00:09:12,190 --> 00:09:16,680 مخاطر X فبيقدروا يعملوا الـ portfolios تبعتهم 125 00:09:16,680 --> 00:09:21,080 according to the X risk يعني بتوفر لهم ال 126 00:09:21,080 --> 00:09:24,740 portfolio management إنه بالظبط يقدروا يكونوا 127 00:09:24,740 --> 00:09:32,140 محافظ استثمارية with unknown risk يعني بيقدروا 128 00:09:32,140 --> 00:09:36,240 يعملوا محافظ استثمارية معروفة المخاطر Okay فالأسواق 129 00:09:36,240 --> 00:09:39,600 المالية بتساعدهم على الكلام هذا and they use 130 00:09:39,600 --> 00:09:42,060 advanced calculations بيستخدموا الـ advanced 131 00:09:42,060 --> 00:09:47,080 calculations to do this يعني رياضيات متقدمة عشان 132 00:09:47,080 --> 00:09:50,220 يحصلوا على الـ appropriate risk يعني مثلا خليني 133 00:09:50,220 --> 00:09:56,160 أعطيكم مثال لو أجاني investors شوفوا كيف مثلا 134 00:09:56,160 --> 00:10:03,650 خليني .. لو أجاني أنا channel investors from 135 00:10:03,650 --> 00:10:09,830 different origins يعني مستثمرين من من مختلف الـ 136 00:10:09,830 --> 00:10:16,630 origins المصادر okay مثلا عندنا I one investor one 137 00:10:16,630 --> 00:10:22,990 I two investor two I three I four I five till I 138 00:10:22,990 --> 00:10:31,450 end for instance I one is old old man لو كان الـ I 139 00:10:31,450 --> 00:10:35,630 one investor number one is old man رجل كبير and I 140 00:10:35,630 --> 00:10:42,770 two is old lady I five for instance is young with 141 00:10:42,770 --> 00:10:48,070 a secure job okay 142 00:10:48,070 --> 00:10:56,890 and I four is young lady with a secure job as well 143 00:10:56,890 --> 00:11:00,690 so let's see how we can reflect appropriate level 144 00:11:00,690 --> 00:11:03,270 of risk according to the characteristics of the 145 00:11:03,270 --> 00:11:06,310 investors يعني خليني أشوف كيف احنا ممكن نعمل محفظة 146 00:11:06,310 --> 00:11:13,170 استثمارية حسب المخاطر بتاعة الـ investors okay طيب 147 00:11:13,170 --> 00:11:15,330 هلأ لو نيجي احنا نيجي handle الـ old men and old 148 00:11:15,330 --> 00:11:19,750 ladies هدول بتحمل المخاطر؟شو رأيكم؟ زلمة كبيرة و 149 00:11:19,750 --> 00:11:22,390 ستة كبيرة يعني retired people يعني خلينا نحكي هنا 150 00:11:22,390 --> 00:11:28,690 number .. I3 retired lady يعني ستة تقاعدت يعني 151 00:11:28,690 --> 00:11:33,810 كانت تشتغل و صار عندها تقاعد شو رأيكم؟الـ old man و 152 00:11:33,810 --> 00:11:38,150 الـ old lady و الـ retired lady هدول بتحملوش مخاطر 153 00:11:38,150 --> 00:11:42,210 فإحنا إيش بنعملهم محفظة ناخدهم هدول مع بعض و 154 00:11:42,210 --> 00:11:46,130 بنعملهم محفظة with lower risk بنعملهم محفظ 155 00:11:46,130 --> 00:11:49,670 استثماري with lower risk طب إيش بنستثمرهم؟ إيش الـ 156 00:11:49,670 --> 00:11:53,420 investment اللي فيه lower risk؟الـ treasury bills، 157 00:11:53,420 --> 00:11:56,440 مظبوط، فيه lower risk، إيش فيه كمان؟ الـ bonds، 158 00:11:56,440 --> 00:12:01,880 فيها lower risk، إيش كمان؟ عقد ثابت، إيش رأيكم؟ الـ 159 00:12:01,880 --> 00:12:04,420 derivatives، نحطولهم في الـ derivatives؟ نستثمرهم 160 00:12:04,420 --> 00:12:07,880 في الـ derivatives؟ no, لأن الـ derivatives ..high 161 00:12:07,880 --> 00:12:12,580 risk طيب وش كمان ممكن نعطيهم real estate عقارات 162 00:12:12,580 --> 00:12:15,500 استثمروا بالعقارات so this is the thing so we 163 00:12:15,500 --> 00:12:19,000 forming up this portfolio by using for instance 164 00:12:19,000 --> 00:12:21,980 treasury bills which is risk free maybe treasury 165 00:12:21,980 --> 00:12:28,160 bonds and real estate this is the example okay 166 00:12:28,160 --> 00:12:33,600 let's consider the I4 and I5 I5 young man and 167 00:12:33,600 --> 00:12:39,480 young lady with a secure job صغار و عندهم شغلهم 168 00:12:39,480 --> 00:12:43,400 okay so they can bear more risk so they can bear 169 00:12:43,400 --> 00:12:46,280 more risk يعني ممكن يتحملوا or they hold they may 170 00:12:46,280 --> 00:12:50,540 hold more risk فممكن يتحملوا مخاطر أعلى so وين 171 00:12:50,540 --> 00:12:53,240 ممكن يستثمروا ممكن في الـ stocks يستثمروا بالـ 172 00:12:53,240 --> 00:12:57,240 stocks ممكن بالـ currencies ممكن يستثمروا ممكن في 173 00:12:57,240 --> 00:13:02,800 الـ derivatives okay that's it يعني شفنا احنا how 174 00:13:02,800 --> 00:13:09,000 we reflect this إذن حسب the characteristics of the 175 00:13:09,000 --> 00:13:14,240 investors so we can forming up the appropriate 176 00:13:14,240 --> 00:13:18,040 portfolio with appropriate risk يعني ممكن إحنا 177 00:13:18,040 --> 00:13:22,500 ننشأ محافظة استثمارية حسب الـ investors اللي سبعونا 178 00:13:22,500 --> 00:13:27,560 وحسب المخاطر اللي هم ممكن يتحملوها okay so this is 179 00:13:27,560 --> 00:13:32,660 the appropriate risk level the last one is tax 180 00:13:32,660 --> 00:13:36,890 considerations tax tax consideration okay let's 181 00:13:36,890 --> 00:13:39,370 focus on the importance of tax considerations 182 00:13:39,370 --> 00:13:44,950 خلّيني أركز على الـ tax considerations يعني 183 00:13:44,950 --> 00:13:54,930 الاعتبارات الضريبية طيب 184 00:13:54,930 --> 00:14:03,980 خلّيني أخد مثال احنا عندنا stock A stock A بيوزع 185 00:14:03,980 --> 00:14:13,360 dividends، الـ stock A نفسه ممكن 186 00:14:13,360 --> 00:14:19,040 ما يدفع dividends، no dividends، نشوف what is the 187 00:14:19,040 --> 00:14:21,860 difference when the stock A paying dividends and 188 00:14:21,860 --> 00:14:24,840 when the stock A paying no dividends يعني إيش 189 00:14:24,840 --> 00:14:28,560 الفرق بإنه الشركة تدفع أرباح .. تدفع توزيعات أرباح 190 00:14:28,560 --> 00:14:33,140 و ما تدفعش؟the dividends when the investors 191 00:14:33,140 --> 00:14:37,600 receiving the dividends they have to pay tax لازم 192 00:14:37,600 --> 00:14:45,700 يدفعوا ضريبة and this tax is maybe 25% هبتصل this 193 00:14:45,700 --> 00:14:50,280 tax in the united states this the tax income is up 194 00:14:50,280 --> 00:14:54,520 to 25% and in the UK as well يعني في الولايات 195 00:14:54,520 --> 00:14:59,600 المتحدة الأمريكية و الـ .. و الـ .. و الـ UK بتصل ل 196 00:14:59,600 --> 00:15:05,480 25% فاللي مثلا لو احنا we receive 10$ as a 197 00:15:05,480 --> 00:15:11,540 dividends we have to pay 2.5$ as a tax okay this 198 00:15:11,540 --> 00:15:16,760 is the .. this is the problem in the opposite if a 199 00:15:16,760 --> 00:15:24,000 being no dividends it means there is no tax طيب 200 00:15:24,000 --> 00:15:26,660 what is the alternative of not paying the 201 00:15:26,660 --> 00:15:31,840 dividends؟ شو البديل أنه احنا ماددفعش نوزعش أرباح؟ 202 00:15:31,840 --> 00:15:36,400 فضل ازاي 203 00:15:36,400 --> 00:15:41,860 صح كلامك بس ازاي انا احكي لك لما احنا ماددفعش 204 00:15:41,860 --> 00:15:45,840 الأرباح انا محتجزة بيصير في 110 earnings أرباح 205 00:15:45,840 --> 00:15:50,200 محتجزة اه بتكون قصود احنا الأصل هو عبارة عن قيمة 206 00:15:50,200 --> 00:15:57,970 الفرق من القصود او قيمته بصير ايش؟بتزيد المكية 207 00:15:57,970 --> 00:16:02,470 بتزيد حصته بس هذا from the financial perspective 208 00:16:02,470 --> 00:16:05,770 this is from the corporate finance perspective هذا 209 00:16:05,770 --> 00:16:08,970 من غير نظر corporate finance but from the 210 00:16:08,970 --> 00:16:12,430 financial market perspective you are right but 211 00:16:12,430 --> 00:16:14,990 from the financial market perspective let's see 212 00:16:14,990 --> 00:16:19,050 what is going خلينا نشوف الـ A بتدفع dividends فهم 213 00:16:19,050 --> 00:16:22,170 بدفعوا taxation فالـ investors اللي بتثمروا في A و 214 00:16:22,170 --> 00:16:28,010 اللي بتدفع dividends فهيدفعوا 25% taxation if a 215 00:16:28,010 --> 00:16:31,310 decided not paying any dividends إذا هم قرروا 216 00:16:31,310 --> 00:16:34,550 مايدفعوش dividends خلينا نشوف لو أنتوا شفتوا الـ 217 00:16:34,550 --> 00:16:40,550 assets و الـ liabilities مظبوط؟فلما أنا ب .. بعمل 218 00:16:40,550 --> 00:16:46,310 no dividends فبعمل احتجاز للأرباح فبتروحها تحت الـ 219 00:16:46,310 --> 00:16:49,730 capital as she said تحت الـ capital بيصير في return 220 00:16:49,730 --> 00:16:53,910 earnings طيب let's ask you a question return 221 00:16:53,910 --> 00:16:57,250 earnings what is the importance of return earnings 222 00:16:57,250 --> 00:17:00,890 خلينا سؤال finance إيش أهمية الـ return earnings 223 00:17:00,890 --> 00:17:05,370 ليش .. ليش الشركات بتعمل investment is for 224 00:17:05,370 --> 00:17:10,800 expansion expansion يعني توسع صح ولا لأ Okay فالان 225 00:17:10,800 --> 00:17:16,120 لما الشركات بتروح بتعمل keeping the profit it 226 00:17:16,120 --> 00:17:19,820 means return earnings it means in the future they 227 00:17:19,820 --> 00:17:22,440 may invest this money في المستقبل هم هيتستثمروا 228 00:17:22,440 --> 00:17:28,420 الأموال because they keep this the price of the 229 00:17:28,420 --> 00:17:32,380 stocks is going up لما الشركات تحتجز الأرباح 230 00:17:32,380 --> 00:17:36,060 فالمستثمرين مقتنعين ان هاي الشركات لما تحتجز 231 00:17:36,060 --> 00:17:38,520 الأرباح هتعمل expansion ايش يعني expansion يعني 232 00:17:38,520 --> 00:17:42,830 توسع طب لأنه بده تعمل expansion فبصير الـ investors 233 00:17:42,830 --> 00:17:46,990 معنيين بالشركة هذه بتعرفوا أن الشركة هذه مثلا نيجي 234 00:17:46,990 --> 00:17:50,910 بالتل عاملة تحتجز أرباح و بتفكر أنه تروح تعمل مثلا 235 00:17:50,910 --> 00:17:55,390 a new investment فإيش اللي بيصير على الـ price إيش 236 00:17:55,390 --> 00:17:58,490 الـ price السعر؟ شو بيصير فيه؟ going up بصير ارتفاع 237 00:17:58,490 --> 00:18:05,070 طيب خليني عشان انا بتواصلكم فكرة معينة هلأ instead 238 00:18:05,070 --> 00:18:09,640 of paying dividends بدل ما احنا ندفع dividends we 239 00:18:09,640 --> 00:18:14,980 are keeping the profits مظبوط keeping the profits 240 00:18:14,980 --> 00:18:20,740 اللي هو بانجو سان نسميها returned earnings اللي هو 241 00:18:20,740 --> 00:18:26,020 احتجاز أربعة طيب هلأ حكينا 25% اللي ندفعه على الـ 242 00:18:26,020 --> 00:18:29,220 dividend tax لما نعمل keeping the profits مع 243 00:18:29,220 --> 00:18:34,340 الكلام we do expansion نعمل expansion توسع 244 00:18:36,580 --> 00:18:43,140 لما يعمل توسع الـ investors think that the income 245 00:18:43,140 --> 00:18:46,720 will increase لما الـ investors بيعرفوا أن الشركة 246 00:18:46,720 --> 00:18:50,460 هي هتعمل توسع الأربعة هتزيد صح ولا لأ؟because they 247 00:18:50,460 --> 00:18:53,620 think the income increase the price will going up 248 00:18:53,620 --> 00:18:58,500 السعر هيرتفع okay what this means from the 249 00:18:58,500 --> 00:19:01,300 financial market perspective هذا إيش معنى الكلام 250 00:19:01,300 --> 00:19:04,300 من وجهة نظر الـ financial perspective الـ financial 251 00:19:04,300 --> 00:19:09,700 perspective saying that it means R the return on a 252 00:19:09,700 --> 00:19:13,900 particular asset R of A this is from mathematical 253 00:19:13,900 --> 00:19:16,740 perspective من وجهة نظر المحاسبية financial 254 00:19:16,740 --> 00:19:19,780 mathematical perspective من وجهة نظر المالية 255 00:19:19,780 --> 00:19:23,220 المحاسبية RA اللي هو السهم A اللي احنا حكينا فيه 256 00:19:23,220 --> 00:19:33,080 بساوي D one D plus P one minus P not what it means 257 00:19:33,080 --> 00:19:41,760 العائد بتاع RA هيساوي ال dividends على زائد price one 258 00:19:41,760 --> 00:19:45,960 سعر البيع ناقص سعر الشراء معنى الكلام أنه احنا 259 00:19:45,960 --> 00:19:50,540 العائد تبع السهم بنحصله من مكانين من ال dividends 260 00:19:50,540 --> 00:19:56,520 و من ال capital gains هذا بيسموها capital gains 261 00:19:56,520 --> 00:20:02,320 ليش سميناها capital gains لأنه احنا اشترينا السهم 262 00:20:02,320 --> 00:20:06,480 على سعره لما صار في keeping the profit هنبيعه على 263 00:20:06,480 --> 00:20:12,020 سعر أعلى okay طب لنفترض احنا هنا حكينا ال tax high 264 00:20:12,020 --> 00:20:15,840 ال tax في حالة ال dividends is greater than the 265 00:20:15,840 --> 00:20:18,960 capital gains ال tax في حالة ال dividends is 266 00:20:18,960 --> 00:20:22,100 greater than the capital gains الحكومة الأمريكية و 267 00:20:22,100 --> 00:20:26,220 البريطانية و حتى اللي عندنا و ال local governments 268 00:20:26,220 --> 00:20:30,800 و الحكومات المحلية عندنا بتفرض ضرائب أعلى على ال 269 00:20:30,800 --> 00:20:36,040 dividends فبصير إنه الاهتمام بال capital gains أكثر 270 00:20:36,040 --> 00:20:42,120 من اهتمام بال dividends okay so the thing is some 271 00:20:42,120 --> 00:20:48,020 investors they prefer to take dividends but the 272 00:20:48,020 --> 00:20:54,520 problem is paying more tax بعض المستثمرين يفضلوا 273 00:20:54,520 --> 00:20:57,660 ال dividends لكن المشكلة إيش في ال dividends تدفع 274 00:20:57,660 --> 00:21:01,780 ضريبة عالية they have to do this يعني نرجع لمثالنا 275 00:21:01,780 --> 00:21:06,740 إذا كانت راجل كبير و ست كبيرة بيفضلوا ال dividends 276 00:21:06,740 --> 00:21:10,360 ما بيفضلوش إن الشركات تروح تترسم للأربعة واحدة 277 00:21:10,360 --> 00:21:15,120 بعدها بفضلوا كل شهرين تلاتة يجي لهم dividends لكن 278 00:21:15,120 --> 00:21:19,860 المشكلة هذه they have to pay high tax لكن بواجهوا 279 00:21:19,860 --> 00:21:21,560 مشكلة إنه بدفعوا ضريبة عالية 280 00:21:24,390 --> 00:21:28,350 people they prefer the capital gains they don't 281 00:21:28,350 --> 00:21:33,850 consider the risk ما يهتموش بالضريبة they want to 282 00:21:33,850 --> 00:21:37,750 avoid the high tax الناس اللي بيفضلوا الأرباح 283 00:21:37,750 --> 00:21:42,870 المحتجزة طبعا في الحالة هذه هيتجنبوا دفع ضرائب 284 00:21:42,870 --> 00:21:48,920 عالية فاحنا أمام two synergies the tax on the 285 00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:52,960 dividends is higher than the capital gains الأرباح 286 00:21:52,960 --> 00:21:56,540 الرأس مالية so some investors prefer the dividends 287 00:21:56,540 --> 00:22:02,340 however it pay high tax other investors prefer the 288 00:22:02,340 --> 00:22:07,920 capital gains and paying no tax طب التنين 289 00:22:07,920 --> 00:22:11,360 بيه مشكلة على فكرة التنين إيه إيش بيه مشكلة مشكلة 290 00:22:11,360 --> 00:22:14,320 هذا معروفة أنه بي .. أنه الضرائب طب مشكلة هذا وين؟ 291 00:22:16,580 --> 00:22:20,860 time yes right the time إيش risk لأنه there is no 292 00:22:20,860 --> 00:22:24,320 guarantee the price will go up فش ضمان الأسعار 293 00:22:24,320 --> 00:22:28,120 ترتفع لفوق صحيح they are keeping the profits is 294 00:22:28,120 --> 00:22:31,180 right they are keeping the profits but it is not 295 00:22:31,180 --> 00:22:35,300 guaranteed the prices will go up يعني زي مثلا مثال 296 00:22:35,300 --> 00:22:38,800 بنقول الحج والحجة اللي هو old man old man old lady 297 00:22:38,800 --> 00:22:43,880 they consider one bird in your hand is more 298 00:22:43,880 --> 00:22:47,640 preferable than ten birds on the tree يعني عصفور 299 00:22:47,640 --> 00:22:51,120 بيدك أحسن من عشر على الشجرة ده ال thing in this way 300 00:22:51,120 --> 00:22:55,420 بقى young people الناس الصغار في السن اللي زيكو 301 00:22:55,420 --> 00:23:00,240 طبعا they have difference بيقولوا لأ why I don't 302 00:23:00,240 --> 00:23:03,240 need money for instance now so خلي العشر على الشجرة 303 00:23:03,240 --> 00:23:07,640 أحسن ما يكونوا في one bird in my hand because ten 304 00:23:07,640 --> 00:23:11,900 birds on the tree .. ten birds on the tree إيش بيصير? ten 305 00:23:11,900 --> 00:23:17,650 birds on the trees may call other bears to be in 306 00:23:17,650 --> 00:23:21,410 the tree but if the bird is in your hands, no 307 00:23:21,410 --> 00:23:25,130 additional birds will be in your hands يعني لما 308 00:23:25,130 --> 00:23:28,950 تخلوا العشر على الشجرة, they calling more birds 309 00:23:28,950 --> 00:23:32,710 هيستدعوا طيور أكثر تيجي على الشجرة لكن لما يكون 310 00:23:32,710 --> 00:23:37,610 الطير بيدك في حد هييجي و that's it يعني 311 00:23:40,050 --> 00:23:44,630 الفكرة هنا أنه ال capital gains is higher risk 312 00:23:44,630 --> 00:23:47,810 than the dividends, the dividends is guaranteed, 313 00:23:48,130 --> 00:23:50,190 there is a dividends, but the problem in the 314 00:23:50,190 --> 00:23:54,890 dividends, there is high tax okay, so the 315 00:23:54,890 --> 00:23:57,590 portfolios, the portfolio management is helping us 316 00:23:57,590 --> 00:24:00,790 to state whether we prefer the tax or we avoid the 317 00:24:00,790 --> 00:24:04,990 tax, some people or some investors are between the 318 00:24:04,990 --> 00:24:08,620 two scenarios بعض الناس بال two scenarios ممكن 319 00:24:08,620 --> 00:24:12,080 بياخدوا ال portfolios تبعتهم stocks بتعمل 320 00:24:12,080 --> 00:24:16,120 dividends و stocks ما بتعملش dividends يعني بياخدوا أسهم 321 00:24:16,120 --> 00:24:19,280 بتعمل dividends و أسهم ما بتعملش dividends هدول 322 00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:28,900 بيكونوا إيش يعني متوسط المخاطر تمام؟ okay يعني لو 323 00:24:28,900 --> 00:24:34,600 احنا قررنا مثلا ladies بال in her 35 to 40 ست كانت 324 00:24:34,600 --> 00:24:40,120 من 35 لل40 مع راجل من 35 لل40 طبعا ال ladies عادة 325 00:24:40,120 --> 00:24:44,920 بيكونوا يتحملوا المخاطر أقل فهم ممكن يختاروا 326 00:24:44,920 --> 00:24:49,360 dividends مع capital gains ال mens تحملهم للمخاطر 327 00:24:49,360 --> 00:24:53,260 أعلى شوية فممكن ان هم to go to the capital gains 328 00:24:53,260 --> 00:24:55,720 إنهم يروحوا لل capital gains more than the 329 00:24:55,720 --> 00:25:01,350 dividends okay هذا المثال ممكن احنا نعطيه طبعا هذا 330 00:25:01,350 --> 00:25:04,690 ما يعني ان ال ladies they took whole dress لأ في 331 00:25:04,690 --> 00:25:08,610 ناس ممكن يتحملوا بس احنا بنحكي in majority in the 332 00:25:08,610 --> 00:25:15,010 majority اه بال majority يعني ان هم جداش بتحملوا 333 00:25:15,010 --> 00:25:19,290 المخاطر ممكن رجال كمان conservative كونوا طبعا 334 00:25:19,290 --> 00:25:22,610 احنا بنحكي بشكل عام إيش بيصير بالأسواق المالية 335 00:25:22,610 --> 00:25:23,470 okay 336 00:25:31,000 --> 00:25:36,020 طيب أي سؤال any question about the free 337 00:25:36,020 --> 00:25:39,200 diversification appropriate risk level, tax 338 00:25:39,200 --> 00:25:45,200 considerations؟ no questions؟ أه؟ في حد عنده سؤال؟ 339 00:25:45,200 --> 00:25:51,260 okay طيب resource allocations توزيع الموارد أو 340 00:25:51,260 --> 00:25:52,780 تخصيص الموارد 341 00:25:59,910 --> 00:26:02,270 طيب ال market .. we still talking about the 342 00:26:02,270 --> 00:26:05,010 implications of market efficiency احنا مازلنا 343 00:26:05,010 --> 00:26:08,230 بنحكي عن أثر ال market efficiency on portfolio 344 00:26:08,230 --> 00:26:12,450 management على إدارة المحفظة الاستثمارية if you 345 00:26:12,450 --> 00:26:16,490 think the market is inefficient we cannot 346 00:26:16,490 --> 00:26:20,290 efficiently allocate our resources يعني إذا احنا 347 00:26:20,290 --> 00:26:24,530 بنعتقد أن السوق غير كفوء بيكون احنا من الصعوبة إن 348 00:26:24,530 --> 00:26:29,200 احنا نعمل تخصيص الموارد تبعتنا because the market 349 00:26:29,200 --> 00:26:33,420 is inefficient فبصير في miss pricing فبتكون الأسهم 350 00:26:33,420 --> 00:26:36,540 الغالية هتكون رخيصة و الأسهم الرخيصة هتكون غالية 351 00:26:36,540 --> 00:26:41,260 that's it يعني if the market is inefficient okay 352 00:26:42,550 --> 00:26:45,790 فإذا كان السوق المالي كفوء يعني لو أجينا احنا مثلا 353 00:26:45,790 --> 00:26:48,870 على ال mobile إذا كان السوق المالي كفوء هذا سعره 354 00:26:48,870 --> 00:26:51,610 مثلا مائة دولار so the price is مائة دولار one 355 00:26:51,610 --> 00:26:55,430 hundred dollar if the market is inefficient this 356 00:26:55,430 --> 00:26:59,610 could be overpriced or could be underpriced ممكن 357 00:26:59,610 --> 00:27:02,570 يكون أقل من سعره ممكن يكون أعلى من سعره يعني if 358 00:27:02,570 --> 00:27:04,730 this one hundred dollar it could be one hundred 359 00:27:04,730 --> 00:27:07,510 fifty if the market is inefficient and in this 360 00:27:07,510 --> 00:27:12,790 case it is overpriced if it is fifty dollar it 361 00:27:12,790 --> 00:27:18,470 means it is under priced and this is misleading if 362 00:27:18,470 --> 00:27:21,170 the market is inefficient buying and selling these 363 00:27:21,170 --> 00:27:25,510 mobile phones is misleading يعني ممكن تعمل 364 00:27:25,510 --> 00:27:31,310 misleading يعني إيش misleading إنه ما يستطيعوش 365 00:27:31,310 --> 00:27:34,310 ال investors to take the right decision okay 366 00:27:39,170 --> 00:27:42,450 ف the implications of .. if markets were 367 00:27:42,450 --> 00:27:47,250 inefficient إذا كان الأسواق ليست كفؤة resources 368 00:27:47,250 --> 00:27:51,810 would be systematically misallocated هنروح نعمل 369 00:27:51,810 --> 00:27:54,670 misallocation لل .. نروح .. نروح نستثمر في أشياء 370 00:27:54,670 --> 00:27:57,350 غالية هي المفروض تكون رخيصة و أشياء رخيصة المفروض 371 00:27:57,350 --> 00:28:01,230 تكون غالية so this is the things misallocation or 372 00:28:01,230 --> 00:28:05,010 misleading as .. as I explained fame with 373 00:28:05,010 --> 00:28:07,310 overvalued securities can raise capital too 374 00:28:07,310 --> 00:28:13,780 cheaply يعني الشركات اللي أسعارها مغالا فيها ممكن 375 00:28:13,780 --> 00:28:20,560 تحصل على تمويل رخيص و العكس شركات undervalued أقل 376 00:28:20,560 --> 00:28:25,280 من قيمتها الحقيقية may have to pass up profitable 377 00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:27,700 opportunities because the cost of capital is too high 378 00:28:27,700 --> 00:28:30,980 ممكن أنه ما تحصلش على تمويل لأنه the cost of capital 379 00:28:30,980 --> 00:28:37,260 تكلفة رأس المال بتكون عالية جدا okay so this is 380 00:28:37,260 --> 00:28:41,630 important for resource allocation if the market is 381 00:28:41,630 --> 00:28:44,730 efficient we can effectively allocate our 382 00:28:44,730 --> 00:28:49,170 resources but the problem efficient market does 383 00:28:49,170 --> 00:28:53,230 not mean perfect for sides markets ما بتعنيش كل شيء 384 00:28:53,230 --> 00:28:57,170 تمام 100% هأعطيكم مثال يعني لا يعني أنه if the 385 00:28:57,170 --> 00:29:01,150 market is efficient it means we have a proper 386 00:29:01,150 --> 00:29:05,970 asset allocation ده يعني أنه السوق المالي كافٍ أنه 387 00:29:05,970 --> 00:29:11,150 في عندنا توزيع صحيح for instance لو أنا جبت لكم car 388 00:29:11,150 --> 00:29:18,430 2013 and we have two people سيارة 2013 efficient 389 00:29:18,430 --> 00:29:22,250 خدنا نقول مثلاً لموزعين وجئنا the two people we have 390 00:29:22,250 --> 00:29:26,150 a good driver and we have a bad driver and we said 391 00:29:26,150 --> 00:29:30,190 to the bad driver take the keys and try it يعني 392 00:29:30,190 --> 00:29:33,290 خذها المفاتيح وروح جربها maybe after one minute 393 00:29:33,290 --> 00:29:37,850 come back with a smashed car ممكن بعد دقيقة يرجع لنا 394 00:29:37,850 --> 00:29:42,790 والسيارة مكسرة and we may talk to the second 395 00:29:42,790 --> 00:29:45,750 driver which is an excellent driver with a good 396 00:29:45,750 --> 00:29:50,170 profile he can use it and get it back with 397 00:29:50,170 --> 00:29:54,260 excellent condition لذا لدينا اتفاقين اثنين، 398 00:29:54,260 --> 00:29:59,760 المشكلة في الناس وكيف يستخدموا المصادر، السيارة 399 00:29:59,760 --> 00:30:04,060 مفيدة، كل شيء بخير، لكن المشكلة في الناس وكيف 400 00:30:04,060 --> 00:30:09,190 يستخدموا المصادر you have good experience with a 401 00:30:09,190 --> 00:30:11,310 good knowledge with the .. with the .. with a good 402 00:30:11,310 --> 00:30:14,650 profile you can efficiently and effectively manage 403 00:30:14,650 --> 00:30:18,530 the portfolios if you don't have this knowledge it 404 00:30:18,530 --> 00:30:22,990 means you cannot do this هذه المشكلة efficient 405 00:30:22,990 --> 00:30:25,450 market does not mean perfect foresight markets 406 00:30:25,450 --> 00:30:28,210 because it depends on how people foresight how 407 00:30:28,210 --> 00:30:32,050 they understand the portfolios يعني لو احنا جبنا 408 00:30:32,050 --> 00:30:36,190 اللاب توب هذا وحكينا للناس خذوا صمموه لشغلات على 409 00:30:36,190 --> 00:30:41,340 اللاب توب ممكن ناس بيعرفوه وناس ما بيعرفوش so it 410 00:30:41,340 --> 00:30:43,540 depends يعني ما تفكروا أن والله احنا خدنا 411 00:30:43,540 --> 00:30:46,620 portfolio management and investments and we can do 412 00:30:46,620 --> 00:30:51,440 this so you should have skills to do the .. the 413 00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:57,020 management .. the portfolio management okay نحكي 414 00:30:57,020 --> 00:31:02,410 عن event studies اللقاء القادم بيكون نقف عند ال 415 00:31:02,410 --> 00:31:07,070 event studies اللقاء القادم is the last meeting 416 00:31:07,070 --> 00:31:11,770 talking about the chapter four