{"segments": [{"id": 1, "seek": 4149, "start": 20.77, "end": 41.49, "text": "بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم طيب احنا يا بنات بعد ما شرحنا اللي هو stationary و حكينا عن ال white noise خلينا نيجي نشوف كيف ممكن لو ال data ماكنتش stationary فطبعا من الطرق الشارعة انه نخلي ال data stationary و اتفقنا ان هو اللي بيحب ال stationary احنا", "tokens": [3555, 38251, 21984, 34892, 5016, 27842, 34892, 5016, 32640, 23032, 1829, 3555, 1975, 5016, 8315, 35186, 4724, 8315, 2655, 39182, 19446, 13412, 2288, 5016, 8315, 13672, 1829, 31439, 30452, 4032, 11331, 4117, 1829, 8315, 18871, 2423, 2418, 5658, 16490, 1211, 9957, 995, 8717, 1829, 7435, 1829, 8717, 8592, 38688, 9122, 33911, 3714, 43020, 45164, 2423, 1412, 19446, 19452, 2655, 8592, 30452, 6156, 9566, 3555, 3615, 995, 9154, 41950, 2288, 4587, 25124, 9640, 27884, 16472, 3224, 8717, 9778, 20292, 2423, 1412, 30452, 4032, 1975, 2655, 5172, 4587, 8315, 16472, 31439, 13672, 1829, 4724, 1829, 5016, 3555, 2423, 30452, 1975, 5016, 8315], "avg_logprob": 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"end": 166.42, "text": "فلو بدي اعمل دي trend يعني remove لل trend فكيف بتصير بطرح اللي هو مين Xt minus X hat تمام فهذا اللي بيطلع ال residual زي ما شايفين ال E hat هي عبارة عن Xt minus مين اللي هي طبعا Xt بالمناسبة ما هي Xt هي ها اللي هي ها كلها اللي هي beta zero زي beta واحد في T زي مين", "tokens": [5172, 1211, 2407, 4724, 16254, 1975, 25957, 1211, 11778, 1829, 6028, 37495, 22653, 4159, 24976, 6028, 6156, 4117, 33911, 39894, 9381, 13546, 4724, 9566, 2288, 5016, 13672, 1829, 31439, 3714, 9957, 1783, 83, 3175, 1783, 2385, 46811, 10943, 6156, 3224, 15730, 13672, 1829, 4724, 1829, 9566, 1211, 3615, 2423, 27980, 30767, 1829, 19446, 13412, 995, 33911, 9957, 2423, 462, 2385, 39896, 6225, 3555, 9640, 3660, 18871, 1783, 83, 3175, 3714, 9957, 13672, 1829, 39896, 23032, 3555, 3615, 995, 1783, 83, 20666, 2304, 8315, 35457, 3660, 19446, 39896, 1783, 83, 39896, 8032, 995, 13672, 1829, 39896, 8032, 995, 28242, 11296, 13672, 1829, 39896, 9861, 4018, 30767, 1829, 9861, 36764, 24401, 8978, 314, 30767, 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"probability": 0.9345703125}, {"start": 146.08, "end": 146.88, "word": " بطرح", "probability": 0.6649169921875}, {"start": 146.88, "end": 147.04, "word": " اللي", "probability": 0.72021484375}, {"start": 147.04, "end": 147.24, "word": " هو", "probability": 0.9755859375}, {"start": 147.24, "end": 147.6, "word": " مين", "probability": 0.7210693359375}, {"start": 147.6, "end": 148.7, "word": " Xt", "probability": 0.388916015625}, {"start": 148.7, "end": 149.34, "word": " minus", "probability": 0.33642578125}, {"start": 149.34, "end": 149.76, "word": " X", "probability": 0.97509765625}, {"start": 149.76, "end": 150.2, "word": " hat", "probability": 0.7685546875}, {"start": 150.2, "end": 151.0, "word": " تمام", "probability": 0.9345703125}, {"start": 151.0, "end": 151.68, "word": " فهذا", "probability": 0.8816731770833334}, {"start": 151.68, "end": 151.82, "word": " اللي", "probability": 0.9873046875}, {"start": 151.82, "end": 152.1, "word": " بيطلع", "probability": 0.96181640625}, {"start": 152.1, "end": 152.22, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.8583984375}, {"start": 152.22, "end": 152.58, "word": " residual", "probability": 0.93505859375}, {"start": 152.58, "end": 152.94, "word": " زي", "probability": 0.80615234375}, {"start": 152.94, "end": 153.0, "word": " ما", "probability": 0.93798828125}, {"start": 153.0, "end": 153.62, "word": " شايفين", "probability": 0.9190673828125}, {"start": 153.62, "end": 153.98, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.4931640625}, {"start": 153.98, "end": 154.14, "word": " E", "probability": 0.87451171875}, {"start": 154.14, "end": 154.52, "word": " hat", "probability": 0.8642578125}, {"start": 154.52, "end": 155.2, "word": " هي", "probability": 0.76904296875}, {"start": 155.2, "end": 155.66, "word": " عبارة", "probability": 0.9888916015625}, {"start": 155.66, "end": 155.86, "word": " عن", "probability": 0.9892578125}, {"start": 155.86, "end": 156.44, "word": " Xt", "probability": 0.93115234375}, {"start": 156.44, "end": 157.36, "word": " minus", "probability": 0.955078125}, {"start": 157.36, "end": 157.78, "word": " مين", "probability": 0.8916015625}, {"start": 157.78, "end": 158.54, "word": " اللي", "probability": 0.85498046875}, {"start": 158.54, "end": 158.82, "word": " هي", "probability": 0.80859375}, {"start": 158.82, "end": 159.48, "word": " طبعا", "probability": 0.9189453125}, {"start": 159.48, "end": 159.86, "word": " Xt", "probability": 0.93896484375}, {"start": 159.86, "end": 160.56, "word": " بالمناسبة", "probability": 0.98046875}, {"start": 160.56, "end": 160.68, "word": " ما", "probability": 0.38623046875}, {"start": 160.68, "end": 160.84, "word": " هي", "probability": 0.4736328125}, {"start": 160.84, "end": 161.4, "word": " Xt", "probability": 0.923828125}, {"start": 161.4, "end": 161.82, "word": " هي", "probability": 0.8427734375}, {"start": 161.82, "end": 162.16, "word": " ها", "probability": 0.6646728515625}, {"start": 162.16, "end": 162.42, "word": " اللي", "probability": 0.951416015625}, {"start": 162.42, "end": 162.58, "word": " هي", "probability": 0.90576171875}, {"start": 162.58, "end": 162.76, "word": " ها", "probability": 0.7158203125}, {"start": 162.76, "end": 163.16, "word": " كلها", "probability": 0.96435546875}, {"start": 163.16, "end": 163.34, "word": " اللي", "probability": 0.966796875}, {"start": 163.34, "end": 163.54, "word": " هي", "probability": 0.92041015625}, {"start": 163.54, "end": 163.82, "word": " beta", "probability": 0.475830078125}, {"start": 163.82, "end": 164.28, "word": " zero", "probability": 0.35791015625}, {"start": 164.28, "end": 164.62, "word": " زي", "probability": 0.86376953125}, {"start": 164.62, "end": 165.02, "word": " beta", "probability": 0.350830078125}, {"start": 165.02, "end": 165.46, "word": " واحد", "probability": 0.904052734375}, {"start": 165.46, "end": 165.64, "word": " في", "probability": 0.84375}, {"start": 165.64, "end": 165.84, "word": " T", "probability": 0.7431640625}, {"start": 165.84, "end": 166.08, "word": " زي", "probability": 0.947509765625}, {"start": 166.08, "end": 166.42, "word": " مين", "probability": 0.91064453125}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 8, "seek": 18770, "start": 167.6, "end": 187.7, "text": "بتطرحها من مين؟ من X hat التي هي مين؟ Beta Zero hat A زائد Beta طبعا فيه زائد فبتصير ناقص فناقص Beta واحد hat T تمام يعني؟ هذا اسم ال trend فطبعا الآن بالنسبة لل differencing اللي هو عبارة عن الفرق بين مين؟ XT", "tokens": [3555, 2655, 9566, 2288, 5016, 11296, 9154, 3714, 9957, 22807, 9154, 1783, 2385, 38392, 39896, 3714, 9957, 22807, 33286, 17182, 2385, 316, 30767, 16373, 3215, 33286, 23032, 3555, 3615, 995, 8978, 3224, 30767, 16373, 3215, 6156, 3555, 2655, 9381, 13546, 8717, 995, 4587, 9381, 6156, 8315, 4587, 9381, 33286, 36764, 24401, 2385, 314, 46811, 10943, 37495, 22653, 22807, 23758, 24525, 2304, 2423, 6028, 6156, 9566, 3555, 3615, 995, 6024, 48506, 20666, 1863, 35457, 3660, 24976, 743, 13644, 13672, 1829, 31439, 6225, 3555, 9640, 3660, 18871, 27188, 2288, 4587, 49374, 3714, 9957, 22807, 1783, 51], "avg_logprob": -0.3037828815610785, "compression_ratio": 1.5922330097087378, "no_speech_prob": 5.960464477539062e-07, "words": [{"start": 167.60000000000002, "end": 168.36, "word": "بتطرحها", "probability": 0.704833984375}, {"start": 168.36, "end": 168.58, "word": " من", "probability": 0.89111328125}, {"start": 168.58, "end": 168.96, "word": " مين؟", "probability": 0.4834391276041667}, {"start": 168.96, "end": 170.22, "word": " من", "probability": 0.65185546875}, {"start": 170.22, "end": 170.56, "word": " X", "probability": 0.38037109375}, {"start": 170.56, "end": 170.82, "word": " hat", "probability": 0.7314453125}, {"start": 170.82, "end": 171.1, "word": " التي", "probability": 0.763671875}, {"start": 171.1, "end": 171.42, "word": " هي", "probability": 0.91064453125}, {"start": 171.42, "end": 172.2, "word": " مين؟", "probability": 0.7029622395833334}, {"start": 172.2, "end": 172.48, "word": " Beta", "probability": 0.470947265625}, {"start": 172.48, "end": 172.88, "word": " Zero", "probability": 0.251708984375}, {"start": 172.88, "end": 173.36, "word": " hat", "probability": 0.7939453125}, {"start": 173.36, "end": 174.18, "word": " A", "probability": 0.4873046875}, {"start": 174.18, "end": 174.8, "word": " زائد", "probability": 0.686279296875}, {"start": 174.8, "end": 175.12, "word": " Beta", "probability": 0.771484375}, {"start": 175.12, "end": 175.48, "word": " طبعا", "probability": 0.8475341796875}, {"start": 175.48, "end": 175.76, "word": " فيه", "probability": 0.593994140625}, {"start": 175.76, "end": 176.16, "word": " زائد", "probability": 0.9645182291666666}, {"start": 176.16, "end": 176.64, "word": " فبتصير", "probability": 0.804296875}, {"start": 176.64, "end": 177.16, "word": " ناقص", "probability": 0.97314453125}, {"start": 177.16, "end": 177.7, "word": " فناقص", "probability": 0.8515625}, {"start": 177.7, "end": 178.0, "word": " Beta", "probability": 0.77490234375}, {"start": 178.0, "end": 178.42, "word": " واحد", "probability": 0.76806640625}, {"start": 178.42, "end": 178.72, "word": " hat", "probability": 0.943359375}, {"start": 178.72, "end": 178.94, "word": " T", "probability": 0.66748046875}, {"start": 178.94, "end": 179.26, "word": " تمام", "probability": 0.673095703125}, {"start": 179.26, "end": 180.22, "word": " يعني؟", "probability": 0.6640625}, {"start": 180.22, "end": 180.38, "word": " هذا", "probability": 0.5546875}, {"start": 180.38, "end": 180.66, "word": " اسم", "probability": 0.923095703125}, {"start": 180.66, "end": 180.76, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.81494140625}, {"start": 180.76, "end": 181.58, "word": " trend", "probability": 0.56884765625}, {"start": 181.58, "end": 182.8, "word": " فطبعا", "probability": 0.7827880859375}, {"start": 182.8, "end": 183.2, "word": " الآن", "probability": 0.598388671875}, {"start": 183.2, "end": 183.58, "word": " بالنسبة", "probability": 0.9710693359375}, {"start": 183.58, "end": 183.72, "word": " لل", "probability": 0.91796875}, {"start": 183.72, "end": 184.42, "word": " differencing", "probability": 0.7137451171875}, {"start": 184.42, "end": 185.08, "word": " اللي", "probability": 0.86962890625}, {"start": 185.08, "end": 185.28, "word": " هو", "probability": 0.98046875}, {"start": 185.28, "end": 185.68, "word": " عبارة", "probability": 0.986328125}, {"start": 185.68, "end": 185.84, "word": " عن", "probability": 0.9931640625}, {"start": 185.84, "end": 186.22, "word": " الفرق", "probability": 0.9791666666666666}, {"start": 186.22, "end": 186.46, "word": " بين", "probability": 0.9111328125}, {"start": 186.46, "end": 187.24, "word": " مين؟", "probability": 0.8616536458333334}, {"start": 187.24, "end": 187.7, "word": " XT", "probability": 0.6827392578125}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 9, "seek": 21768, "start": 188.32, "end": 217.68, "text": "و XT minus T واحد صح طيب هلأ الرسمة اللي أمامنا من الفوق خالص هي رسمة ال series الأصلية مع اللي هو ال regression line اللي أنتوا شايفينه ال trend line هذا طبعا ال series الأصلية واضح أنه أصلا مش stationary و لا شو رأيكوا مش stationary لأنها بتزداد مع تزايدها ففي trend واضح لما نعملنا دي trend هي الرسمة الوصطانية هذه عارفين الرسمة هذه كيف حصلتوا عليها", "tokens": [2407, 1783, 51, 3175, 314, 36764, 24401, 20328, 5016, 23032, 1829, 3555, 8032, 1211, 10721, 34892, 38251, 3660, 13672, 1829, 5551, 2304, 10943, 8315, 9154, 27188, 30543, 16490, 6027, 9381, 39896, 12602, 38251, 3660, 2423, 2638, 16247, 36520, 10632, 20449, 13672, 1829, 31439, 2423, 24590, 1622, 13672, 1829, 14739, 2655, 14407, 13412, 995, 33911, 9957, 3224, 2423, 6028, 1622, 23758, 23032, 3555, 3615, 995, 2423, 2638, 16247, 36520, 10632, 4032, 46958, 5016, 14739, 3224, 5551, 9381, 15040, 37893, 30452, 4032, 20193, 13412, 2407, 12602, 10721, 1829, 4117, 14407, 37893, 30452, 5296, 33456, 11296, 39894, 11622, 3215, 18513, 20449, 6055, 11622, 995, 25708, 11296, 6156, 41185, 6028, 4032, 46958, 5016, 5296, 15042, 8717, 25957, 1211, 8315, 11778, 1829, 6028, 39896, 34892, 38251, 3660, 2423, 2407, 9381, 9566, 7649, 10632, 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"word": " هذه", "probability": 0.48486328125}, {"start": 432.37, "end": 432.75, "word": " هنشوف", "probability": 0.902099609375}, {"start": 432.75, "end": 433.03, "word": " أنها", "probability": 0.708984375}, {"start": 433.03, "end": 433.43, "word": " moving", "probability": 0.56787109375}, {"start": 433.43, "end": 433.99, "word": " average", "probability": 0.810546875}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 18, "seek": 45196, "start": 435.32, "end": 451.96, "text": "ماشي هذه مش white noise شكلها moving average المهم احنا مش مشكلتنا بس هي قريبة ان تكون مالها white noise او خلينا نقول التعامل معها بيكون ألطف من التعامل مع المين مع اللي فوق منها ماشي طيب نأتي الآن ل اللي هو", "tokens": [2304, 33599, 1829, 29538, 37893, 2418, 5658, 13412, 28820, 11296, 2684, 4274, 9673, 16095, 1975, 5016, 8315, 37893, 37893, 28820, 2655, 8315, 4724, 3794, 39896, 12174, 16572, 49401, 16472, 6055, 30544, 3714, 6027, 11296, 2418, 5658, 1975, 2407, 16490, 20292, 8315, 8717, 39648, 16712, 3615, 10943, 1211, 20449, 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"probability": 0.76318359375}, {"start": 439.06, "end": 439.62, "word": " المهم", "probability": 0.507080078125}, {"start": 439.62, "end": 439.82, "word": " احنا", "probability": 0.84130859375}, {"start": 439.82, "end": 439.98, "word": " مش", "probability": 0.990234375}, {"start": 439.98, "end": 440.56, "word": " مشكلتنا", "probability": 0.994873046875}, {"start": 440.56, "end": 440.8, "word": " بس", "probability": 0.936767578125}, {"start": 440.8, "end": 440.92, "word": " هي", "probability": 0.810546875}, {"start": 440.92, "end": 441.4, "word": " قريبة", "probability": 0.96875}, {"start": 441.4, "end": 441.72, "word": " ان", "probability": 0.5556640625}, {"start": 441.72, "end": 442.1, "word": " تكون", "probability": 0.87841796875}, {"start": 442.1, "end": 442.5, "word": " مالها", "probability": 0.7235921223958334}, {"start": 442.5, "end": 443.14, "word": " white", "probability": 0.9306640625}, {"start": 443.14, "end": 443.4, "word": " noise", "probability": 0.974609375}, {"start": 443.4, "end": 443.8, "word": " او", "probability": 0.88916015625}, {"start": 443.8, "end": 444.1, "word": " خلينا", "probability": 0.7593587239583334}, {"start": 444.1, "end": 444.34, "word": " نقول", "probability": 0.990478515625}, {"start": 444.34, "end": 444.84, "word": " التعامل", "probability": 0.9881591796875}, {"start": 444.84, "end": 445.14, "word": " معها", "probability": 0.841064453125}, {"start": 445.14, "end": 445.46, "word": " بيكون", "probability": 0.9339192708333334}, {"start": 445.46, "end": 445.84, "word": " ألطف", "probability": 0.8665771484375}, {"start": 445.84, "end": 445.98, "word": " من", "probability": 0.9794921875}, {"start": 445.98, "end": 446.6, "word": " التعامل", "probability": 0.871826171875}, {"start": 446.6, "end": 446.76, "word": " مع", "probability": 0.98486328125}, {"start": 446.76, "end": 447.12, "word": " المين", "probability": 0.59228515625}, {"start": 447.12, "end": 447.68, "word": " مع", "probability": 0.90380859375}, {"start": 447.68, "end": 447.86, "word": " اللي", "probability": 0.8759765625}, {"start": 447.86, "end": 448.08, "word": " فوق", "probability": 0.969482421875}, {"start": 448.08, "end": 448.28, "word": " منها", "probability": 0.5992431640625}, {"start": 448.28, "end": 448.72, "word": " ماشي", "probability": 0.7645670572916666}, {"start": 448.72, "end": 449.82, "word": " طيب", "probability": 0.8151041666666666}, {"start": 449.82, "end": 450.36, "word": " نأتي", "probability": 0.800048828125}, {"start": 450.36, "end": 450.8, "word": " الآن", "probability": 0.7376708984375}, {"start": 450.8, "end": 451.22, "word": " ل", "probability": 0.74365234375}, {"start": 451.22, "end": 451.64, "word": " اللي", "probability": 0.7052001953125}, {"start": 451.64, "end": 451.96, "word": " هو", "probability": 0.9892578125}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 19, "seek": 46941, "start": 453.35, "end": 469.41, "text": "مفاهيم جديدة وهي لب الإحصال ل ال time series أنا وهي ال ARMA model و الحلقة الخاصة منها اللي هي ال auto-regressive model AR model و ال moving average model MA model تمام و من ثم نحكي عن القريمة model", "tokens": [2304, 5172, 40294, 32640, 10874, 16254, 41891, 37037, 1829, 5296, 3555, 33688, 5016, 9381, 6027, 5296, 2423, 565, 2638, 41850, 37037, 1829, 2423, 8943, 9998, 2316, 4032, 21542, 1211, 28671, 33962, 33546, 3660, 9154, 11296, 13672, 1829, 39896, 2423, 8399, 12, 265, 3091, 488, 2316, 8943, 2316, 4032, 2423, 2684, 4274, 2316, 12191, 2316, 46811, 10943, 4032, 9154, 38637, 2304, 8717, 5016, 4117, 1829, 18871, 25062, 16572, 46007, 2316], "avg_logprob": -0.27142856546810695, "compression_ratio": 1.5133689839572193, "no_speech_prob": 1.6689300537109375e-06, "words": [{"start": 453.35, "end": 453.97, "word": "مفاهيم", "probability": 0.774810791015625}, {"start": 453.97, "end": 454.45, "word": " جديدة", "probability": 0.9830729166666666}, {"start": 454.45, "end": 455.15, "word": " وهي", "probability": 0.67041015625}, {"start": 455.15, "end": 455.49, "word": " لب", "probability": 0.59716796875}, {"start": 455.49, "end": 456.13, "word": " الإحصال", "probability": 0.8746337890625}, {"start": 456.13, "end": 456.33, "word": " ل", "probability": 0.334716796875}, {"start": 456.33, "end": 456.43, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.3564453125}, {"start": 456.43, "end": 456.61, "word": " time", "probability": 0.41552734375}, {"start": 456.61, "end": 457.05, "word": " series", "probability": 0.8408203125}, {"start": 457.05, "end": 457.29, "word": " أنا", "probability": 0.23876953125}, {"start": 457.29, "end": 457.71, "word": " وهي", "probability": 0.834716796875}, {"start": 457.71, "end": 457.83, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.7099609375}, {"start": 457.83, "end": 458.21, "word": " ARMA", "probability": 0.6666259765625}, {"start": 458.21, "end": 458.59, "word": " model", "probability": 0.81689453125}, {"start": 458.59, "end": 459.33, "word": " و", "probability": 0.5009765625}, {"start": 459.33, "end": 459.67, "word": " الحلقة", "probability": 0.7342936197916666}, {"start": 459.67, "end": 460.19, "word": " الخاصة", "probability": 0.9871419270833334}, {"start": 460.19, "end": 460.61, "word": " منها", "probability": 0.98974609375}, {"start": 460.61, "end": 461.19, "word": " اللي", "probability": 0.85205078125}, {"start": 461.19, "end": 461.37, "word": " هي", "probability": 0.54296875}, {"start": 461.37, "end": 461.83, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.75927734375}, {"start": 461.83, "end": 462.09, "word": " auto", "probability": 0.732421875}, {"start": 462.09, "end": 462.67, "word": "-regressive", "probability": 0.776611328125}, {"start": 462.67, "end": 462.93, "word": " model", "probability": 0.9150390625}, {"start": 462.93, "end": 463.17, "word": " AR", "probability": 0.61474609375}, {"start": 463.17, "end": 463.71, "word": " model", "probability": 0.91259765625}, {"start": 463.71, "end": 463.93, "word": " و", "probability": 0.9375}, {"start": 463.93, "end": 464.05, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.61572265625}, {"start": 464.05, "end": 464.33, "word": " moving", "probability": 0.859375}, {"start": 464.33, "end": 464.83, "word": " average", "probability": 0.7783203125}, {"start": 464.83, "end": 465.13, "word": " model", "probability": 0.96044921875}, {"start": 465.13, "end": 465.67, "word": " MA", "probability": 0.395263671875}, {"start": 465.67, "end": 466.35, "word": " model", "probability": 0.943359375}, {"start": 466.35, "end": 467.25, "word": " تمام", "probability": 0.951904296875}, {"start": 467.25, "end": 467.63, "word": " و", "probability": 0.83349609375}, {"start": 467.63, "end": 467.79, "word": " من", "probability": 0.87158203125}, {"start": 467.79, "end": 468.05, "word": " ثم", "probability": 0.992919921875}, {"start": 468.05, "end": 468.45, "word": " نحكي", "probability": 0.9898681640625}, {"start": 468.45, "end": 468.59, "word": " عن", "probability": 0.96875}, {"start": 468.59, "end": 469.09, "word": " القريمة", "probability": 0.8564453125}, {"start": 469.09, "end": 469.41, "word": " model", "probability": 0.87353515625}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 20, "seek": 49838, "start": 470.08, "end": 498.38, "text": "و طبعا السريمة و السريمة seasonal وشوف كيف ان شاء الله فيما بعد نستخدمهم في ال forecasting طبعا هذه المحاضرة ستكون هي سلسلة من محاضرات حتى نغطي هذه المواضيع كلها اللي هي ال linear process معاها ماشي لحد ما نخرجها في عند اللي هو القريمة و بنبدأ بعديها في سلسلة أخرى خلينا نركز مثلا في البداية نحكي على ال autoregressive ثم ال moving average ثم ال arma", "tokens": [2407, 23032, 3555, 3615, 995, 21136, 16572, 46007, 4032, 21136, 16572, 46007, 27421, 4032, 8592, 38688, 9122, 33911, 16472, 13412, 16606, 21984, 8978, 15042, 39182, 8717, 14851, 9778, 40448, 16095, 8978, 2423, 44331, 23032, 3555, 3615, 995, 29538, 9673, 5016, 46958, 25720, 8608, 2655, 30544, 39896, 8608, 1211, 3794, 37977, 9154, 3714, 5016, 46958, 2288, 9307, 11331, 49975, 8717, 17082, 9566, 1829, 29538, 9673, 2407, 46958, 40228, 28242, 11296, 13672, 1829, 39896, 2423, 8213, 1399, 20449, 995, 11296, 3714, 33599, 1829, 5296, 24401, 19446, 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{"start": 486.08, "end": 486.44, "word": " هو", "probability": 0.9658203125}, {"start": 486.44, "end": 487.44, "word": " القريمة", "probability": 0.7466634114583334}, {"start": 487.44, "end": 488.22, "word": " و", "probability": 0.9287109375}, {"start": 488.22, "end": 488.58, "word": " بنبدأ", "probability": 0.8902994791666666}, {"start": 488.58, "end": 489.16, "word": " بعديها", "probability": 0.8351236979166666}, {"start": 489.16, "end": 490.4, "word": " في", "probability": 0.92138671875}, {"start": 490.4, "end": 491.14, "word": " سلسلة", "probability": 0.994384765625}, {"start": 491.14, "end": 491.82, "word": " أخرى", "probability": 0.96875}, {"start": 491.82, "end": 492.52, "word": " خلينا", "probability": 0.7835286458333334}, {"start": 492.52, "end": 493.1, "word": " نركز", "probability": 0.99267578125}, {"start": 493.1, "end": 493.42, "word": " مثلا", "probability": 0.946044921875}, {"start": 493.42, "end": 493.56, "word": " في", "probability": 0.921875}, {"start": 493.56, "end": 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"start": 498.89, "end": 526.07, "text": "وننتقل بعد ذلك خطوة إلى بعد ذلك للقريمة والسريمة ونكمل ونشوف إيش بنلسوا فهذه هي المحاضرة الأولى في السلسلة هذه المحاضرات يمكن تلت أربع محاضرات يمكن أجل الله علم ف ال linear model اللي بنحكي عنه for stationary time series without a trend or seasonal effect that is if necessary any trend or seasonal or cyclic effect have been removed واضح الكلام المكتوب؟", "tokens": [11536, 29399, 4587, 1211, 39182, 29910, 23275, 16490, 9566, 2407, 3660, 30731, 39182, 29910, 23275, 24976, 4587, 16572, 46007, 16070, 3794, 16572, 46007, 4032, 1863, 24793, 1211, 4032, 1863, 8592, 38688, 11933, 1829, 8592, 44945, 1211, 3794, 14407, 6156, 3224, 24192, 39896, 9673, 5016, 46958, 25720, 16247, 12610, 7578, 8978, 21136, 1211, 3794, 37977, 29538, 9673, 5016, 46958, 2288, 9307, 7251, 43020, 6055, 1211, 2655, 5551, 25513, 3615, 3714, 5016, 46958, 2288, 9307, 7251, 43020, 5551, 7435, 1211, 21984, 11203, 2304, 6156, 2423, 8213, 2316, 13672, 1829, 44945, 5016, 4117, 1829, 18871, 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"text": "و ال auto-regressive moving average model اللي هو ARMA و من ثم يعني هذه فيما بعد حلم شوية لقدام اللي هو auto-regressive integrated moving average model اللي هي ال ARIMA و حقيقة فيه السريمة بس السريمة لها علاقة بال seasonal بال seasonal فعشان هيك أنا محطتهاش هان طبعا هدولة ال models ممكن فيما بعد نعملهم modeling هالجهة و من ثم نستخدمهم في ال forecasting ماشي؟", "tokens": [2407, 2423, 8399, 12, 265, 3091, 488, 2684, 4274, 2316, 13672, 1829, 31439, 8943, 9998, 4032, 9154, 38637, 2304, 37495, 22653, 29538, 8978, 15042, 39182, 11331, 19528, 13412, 2407, 10632, 5296, 28543, 10943, 13672, 1829, 31439, 8399, 12, 265, 3091, 488, 10919, 2684, 4274, 2316, 13672, 1829, 39896, 2423, 8943, 6324, 32, 4032, 11331, 38436, 28671, 8978, 3224, 21136, 16572, 46007, 4724, 3794, 21136, 16572, 46007, 5296, 11296, 11203, 995, 28671, 20666, 27421, 20666, 27421, 6156, 3615, 8592, 7649, 39896, 4117, 41850, 3714, 5016, 9566, 47395, 33599, 8032, 7649, 23032, 3555, 3615, 995, 8032, 3215, 12610, 3660, 2423, 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mean إذا ال mean اللي هو ال mu تبع ال XT يبقى نت مش zero ففي الحالة هدى we replace ال XT بإيش", "tokens": [2407, 6027, 20292, 39896, 27188, 47302, 4724, 1829, 39896, 6225, 3555, 9640, 3660, 18871, 36764, 24401, 3175, 8032, 3215, 7578, 23032, 3555, 3615, 995, 19446, 16472, 2655, 14407, 6156, 995, 16095, 9957, 11296, 8032, 3215, 7578, 1975, 5016, 8315, 11331, 4117, 36081, 11296, 4724, 9381, 23557, 5016, 3660, 37893, 6225, 9640, 5172, 32239, 8592, 9122, 2304, 7649, 3714, 25720, 3714, 37983, 2288, 11296, 8032, 7649, 4724, 3794, 36145, 15042, 39896, 13412, 28820, 11296, 3714, 37983, 25720, 16490, 1211, 33546, 37893, 37893, 28820, 3660, 9122, 3215, 3224, 9122, 28814, 22653, 1975, 8315, 3714, 37983, 2288, 11296, 8032, 1211, 10721, 11331, 49975, 8717, 36150, 8592, 8717, 5016, 4117, 1829, 18871, 2423, 914, 11933, 15730, 2423, 914, 13672, 1829, 31439, 2423, 2992, 6055, 3555, 3615, 2423, 1783, 51, 7251, 3555, 4587, 7578, 8717, 2655, 37893, 4018, 6156, 41185, 21542, 6027, 3660, 8032, 3215, 7578, 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"probability": 0.9404296875}, {"start": 1206.6, "end": 1206.96, "word": " mean", "probability": 0.93505859375}, {"start": 1206.96, "end": 1207.4, "word": " اللي", "probability": 0.7476806640625}, {"start": 1207.4, "end": 1207.58, "word": " هو", "probability": 0.9921875}, {"start": 1207.58, "end": 1207.74, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.8994140625}, {"start": 1207.74, "end": 1208.1, "word": " mu", "probability": 0.29296875}, {"start": 1208.1, "end": 1208.88, "word": " تبع", "probability": 0.7145182291666666}, {"start": 1208.88, "end": 1209.02, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.90771484375}, {"start": 1209.02, "end": 1209.34, "word": " XT", "probability": 0.5380859375}, {"start": 1209.34, "end": 1209.54, "word": " يبقى", "probability": 0.80810546875}, {"start": 1209.54, "end": 1209.74, "word": " نت", "probability": 0.439208984375}, {"start": 1209.74, "end": 1209.92, "word": " مش", "probability": 0.7158203125}, {"start": 1209.92, "end": 1210.38, "word": " zero", "probability": 0.654296875}, {"start": 1210.38, "end": 1211.22, "word": " ففي", "probability": 0.965087890625}, {"start": 1211.22, "end": 1211.64, "word": " الحالة", "probability": 0.9534505208333334}, {"start": 1211.64, "end": 1211.98, "word": " هدى", "probability": 0.8880208333333334}, {"start": 1211.98, "end": 1212.16, "word": " we", "probability": 0.76220703125}, {"start": 1212.16, "end": 1212.88, "word": " replace", "probability": 0.95849609375}, {"start": 1212.88, "end": 1213.34, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.8818359375}, {"start": 1213.34, "end": 1213.72, "word": " XT", "probability": 0.958740234375}, {"start": 1213.72, "end": 1214.3, "word": " بإيش", "probability": 0.89990234375}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 50, "seek": 122688, "start": 1216.1, "end": 1226.88, "text": "وفي الحالة هاي we get إيش بدل ما هي XT تسوى فاي واحد XT ناجس واحد، يعني كل XT بدك ترفعيها و تحط بدلها 100", "tokens": [2407, 41185, 21542, 6027, 3660, 8032, 47302, 321, 483, 11933, 1829, 8592, 47525, 1211, 19446, 39896, 1783, 51, 6055, 3794, 2407, 7578, 6156, 47302, 36764, 24401, 1783, 51, 8717, 26108, 3794, 36764, 24401, 12399, 37495, 22653, 28242, 1783, 51, 47525, 4117, 6055, 28480, 3615, 1829, 11296, 4032, 6055, 5016, 9566, 47525, 1211, 11296, 2319], "avg_logprob": -0.42698864611712367, "compression_ratio": 1.323076923076923, "no_speech_prob": 1.7881393432617188e-07, "words": [{"start": 1216.1, "end": 1216.86, "word": "وفي", "probability": 0.100555419921875}, {"start": 1216.86, "end": 1217.3, "word": " الحالة", "probability": 0.9378255208333334}, {"start": 1217.3, "end": 1217.5, "word": " هاي", "probability": 0.4974365234375}, {"start": 1217.5, "end": 1217.6, "word": " we", "probability": 0.343017578125}, {"start": 1217.6, "end": 1217.92, "word": " get", "probability": 0.9404296875}, {"start": 1217.92, "end": 1218.36, "word": " إيش", "probability": 0.6896158854166666}, {"start": 1218.36, "end": 1218.98, "word": " بدل", "probability": 0.7734375}, {"start": 1218.98, "end": 1219.04, "word": " ما", "probability": 0.923828125}, {"start": 1219.04, "end": 1219.24, "word": " هي", "probability": 0.73876953125}, {"start": 1219.24, "end": 1219.64, "word": " XT", "probability": 0.3529052734375}, {"start": 1219.64, "end": 1220.16, "word": " تسوى", "probability": 0.576751708984375}, {"start": 1220.16, "end": 1220.48, "word": " فاي", "probability": 0.4449462890625}, {"start": 1220.48, "end": 1221.18, "word": " واحد", "probability": 0.982666015625}, {"start": 1221.18, "end": 1221.72, "word": " XT", "probability": 0.76220703125}, {"start": 1221.72, "end": 1222.04, "word": " ناجس", "probability": 0.8655598958333334}, {"start": 1222.04, "end": 1222.42, "word": " واحد،", "probability": 0.7444661458333334}, {"start": 1222.42, "end": 1224.46, "word": " يعني", "probability": 0.62451171875}, {"start": 1224.46, "end": 1224.72, "word": " كل", "probability": 0.908203125}, {"start": 1224.72, "end": 1225.14, "word": " XT", "probability": 0.958740234375}, {"start": 1225.14, "end": 1225.4, "word": " بدك", "probability": 0.5419921875}, {"start": 1225.4, "end": 1225.86, "word": " ترفعيها", "probability": 0.88291015625}, {"start": 1225.86, "end": 1225.98, "word": " و", "probability": 0.50634765625}, {"start": 1225.98, "end": 1226.24, "word": " تحط", "probability": 0.9270833333333334}, {"start": 1226.24, "end": 1226.64, "word": " بدلها", "probability": 0.8937174479166666}, {"start": 1226.64, "end": 1226.88, "word": " 100", "probability": 0.309326171875}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 51, "seek": 125154, "start": 1228.16, "end": 1251.54, "text": "هو بيعطيكي هذه المعادلة واضحة هتنقراها XT-MU تساوي مين فاي واحد افتح جواز XT ناقص واحد ناقص ميو زاد فاي تانين نفتح جواز XT تانين ناقص تانين ناقص ميو و هكذا طيب ممكن هذا نكتبه اللي انتوا شايفينه", "tokens": [3224, 2407, 4724, 40228, 9566, 1829, 4117, 1829, 29538, 9673, 3615, 18513, 37977, 4032, 46958, 5016, 3660, 8032, 2655, 1863, 4587, 23557, 11296, 1783, 51, 12, 44, 52, 6055, 3794, 995, 45865, 3714, 9957, 6156, 47302, 36764, 24401, 1975, 5172, 2655, 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0.9439697265625}, {"start": 1230.58, "end": 1231.54, "word": " هتنقراها", "probability": 0.7449137369791666}, {"start": 1231.54, "end": 1232.08, "word": " XT", "probability": 0.2576904296875}, {"start": 1232.08, "end": 1232.96, "word": "-MU", "probability": 0.4671223958333333}, {"start": 1232.96, "end": 1233.44, "word": " تساوي", "probability": 0.566802978515625}, {"start": 1233.44, "end": 1233.74, "word": " مين", "probability": 0.712890625}, {"start": 1233.74, "end": 1234.8, "word": " فاي", "probability": 0.29913330078125}, {"start": 1234.8, "end": 1235.28, "word": " واحد", "probability": 0.98486328125}, {"start": 1235.28, "end": 1235.68, "word": " افتح", "probability": 0.8714599609375}, {"start": 1235.68, "end": 1236.04, "word": " جواز", "probability": 0.593017578125}, {"start": 1236.04, "end": 1237.26, "word": " XT", "probability": 0.884033203125}, {"start": 1237.26, "end": 1237.94, "word": " ناقص", "probability": 0.678466796875}, {"start": 1237.94, "end": 1238.92, "word": " واحد", "probability": 0.970947265625}, {"start": 1238.92, "end": 1239.28, "word": " ناقص", "probability": 0.9798583984375}, {"start": 1239.28, "end": 1239.62, "word": " ميو", "probability": 0.6612955729166666}, {"start": 1239.62, "end": 1240.36, "word": " زاد", "probability": 0.770751953125}, {"start": 1240.36, "end": 1240.9, "word": " فاي", "probability": 0.693115234375}, {"start": 1240.9, "end": 1241.2, "word": " تانين", "probability": 0.7654622395833334}, {"start": 1241.2, "end": 1241.5, "word": " نفتح", "probability": 0.8507080078125}, {"start": 1241.5, "end": 1241.84, "word": " جواز", "probability": 0.9363606770833334}, {"start": 1241.84, "end": 1242.86, "word": " XT", "probability": 0.9267578125}, {"start": 1242.86, "end": 1243.74, "word": " تانين", "probability": 0.7322591145833334}, {"start": 1243.74, "end": 1244.14, "word": " ناقص", "probability": 0.9576416015625}, {"start": 1244.14, "end": 1244.96, "word": " تانين", "probability": 0.70703125}, {"start": 1244.96, "end": 1245.32, "word": " ناقص", "probability": 0.89794921875}, {"start": 1245.32, "end": 1245.58, "word": " ميو", "probability": 0.97607421875}, {"start": 1245.58, "end": 1245.74, "word": " و", "probability": 0.6806640625}, {"start": 1245.74, "end": 1246.34, "word": " هكذا", "probability": 0.853515625}, {"start": 1246.34, "end": 1248.86, "word": " طيب", "probability": 0.7423095703125}, {"start": 1248.86, "end": 1249.44, "word": " ممكن", "probability": 0.95263671875}, {"start": 1249.44, "end": 1249.78, "word": " هذا", "probability": 0.7353515625}, {"start": 1249.78, "end": 1250.4, "word": " نكتبه", "probability": 0.958984375}, {"start": 1250.4, "end": 1250.62, "word": " اللي", "probability": 0.936767578125}, {"start": 1250.62, "end": 1250.84, "word": " انتوا", "probability": 0.76318359375}, {"start": 1250.84, "end": 1251.54, "word": " شايفينه", "probability": 0.9765625}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 52, "seek": 127820, "start": 1253.2, "end": 1278.2, "text": "في دلالة أن الـ Alpha XT تساوي Alpha زائد Phi واحد XT ناقص واحد زائد Phi تنين XT ناقص اتنين و هكذا حيث أن ال Alpha في الحالة هذه ستكون مين هي لم U مضروبا في واحد ناقص يعني انتوا شايفين انه كأنه بده يقولك هذه ال series الآن اللي كأنه", "tokens": [41185, 11778, 1211, 6027, 3660, 14739, 2423, 39184, 20588, 1783, 51, 6055, 3794, 995, 45865, 20588, 30767, 16373, 3215, 41435, 36764, 24401, 1783, 51, 8717, 995, 4587, 9381, 36764, 24401, 30767, 16373, 3215, 41435, 6055, 1863, 9957, 1783, 51, 8717, 995, 4587, 9381, 1975, 2655, 1863, 9957, 4032, 8032, 4117, 15730, 11331, 1829, 12984, 14739, 2423, 20588, 8978, 21542, 6027, 3660, 29538, 8608, 2655, 30544, 3714, 9957, 39896, 32767, 624, 3714, 11242, 32887, 3555, 995, 8978, 36764, 24401, 8717, 995, 4587, 9381, 37495, 22653, 16472, 2655, 14407, 13412, 995, 33911, 9957, 16472, 3224, 9122, 33456, 3224, 47525, 3224, 7251, 39648, 4117, 29538, 2423, 2638, 6024, 48506, 13672, 1829, 9122, 33456, 3224], "avg_logprob": -0.20605468098074198, "compression_ratio": 1.7431192660550459, "no_speech_prob": 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1.0}, {"id": 96, "seek": 248396, "start": 2456.53, "end": 2483.97, "text": "في الوقت اللي ال auto-regressive stationary في حالة واحدة إذا بتذكروا و قلتلكوا لما ال roots الجذور هذه أكبر من الواحدة أه لما يكون الجذور مش دايما stationary لكن ال moving average دايما stationary ليش؟ والله واضحة ما هي ال stationary معناها؟ مافيش اتجاه يعني ليه لا؟ إيش مالكوا؟", "tokens": [41185, 2423, 30543, 2655, 13672, 1829, 2423, 8399, 12, 265, 3091, 488, 30452, 8978, 11331, 6027, 3660, 36764, 24401, 3660, 11933, 15730, 39894, 8848, 37983, 14407, 4032, 12174, 1211, 2655, 23275, 14407, 5296, 15042, 2423, 10669, 25724, 8848, 13063, 29538, 5551, 4117, 26890, 9154, 2423, 14407, 24401, 3660, 5551, 3224, 5296, 15042, 7251, 30544, 25724, 8848, 13063, 37893, 11778, 47302, 15042, 30452, 44381, 2423, 2684, 4274, 11778, 47302, 15042, 30452, 32239, 8592, 22807, 16070, 43761, 4032, 46958, 5016, 3660, 19446, 39896, 2423, 30452, 20449, 8315, 11296, 22807, 19446, 41185, 8592, 1975, 2655, 7435, 40294, 37495, 22653, 32239, 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2482.71, "word": " يعني", "probability": 0.890869140625}, {"start": 2482.71, "end": 2483.15, "word": " ليه", "probability": 0.513092041015625}, {"start": 2483.15, "end": 2483.37, "word": " لا؟", "probability": 0.3951416015625}, {"start": 2483.37, "end": 2483.55, "word": " إيش", "probability": 0.8645833333333334}, {"start": 2483.55, "end": 2483.97, "word": " مالكوا؟", "probability": 0.8861328125}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 97, "seek": 250427, "start": 2485.33, "end": 2504.27, "text": "من هو اللي بعتمدش على التاني؟ من هو اللي .. ال stationary في حاجتين بيتحقق و من هما ال mean و ال variance و ال covariance .. ال C تلوس المحاضر السابع .. ال mean و ال covariance .. شو ال mean؟", "tokens": [27842, 31439, 13672, 1829, 4724, 34268, 2304, 3215, 8592, 15844, 16712, 7649, 1829, 22807, 9154, 31439, 13672, 1829, 4386, 2423, 30452, 8978, 11331, 26108, 2655, 9957, 4724, 36081, 5016, 4587, 4587, 4032, 9154, 8032, 15042, 2423, 914, 4032, 2423, 21977, 4032, 2423, 49851, 719, 4386, 2423, 383, 6055, 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"probability": 0.65673828125}, {"start": 2677.24, "end": 2677.4, "word": " ال", "probability": 0.978515625}, {"start": 2677.4, "end": 2677.64, "word": " moving", "probability": 0.90234375}, {"start": 2677.64, "end": 2678.04, "word": " average", "probability": 0.7998046875}, {"start": 2678.04, "end": 2678.24, "word": " هو", "probability": 0.978515625}, {"start": 2678.24, "end": 2678.46, "word": " نفس", "probability": 0.990478515625}, {"start": 2678.46, "end": 2678.7, "word": " هذا", "probability": 0.9765625}, {"start": 2678.7, "end": 2681.36, "word": " هو؟", "probability": 0.5313720703125}, {"start": 2681.36, "end": 2681.94, "word": " لأ", "probability": 0.922607421875}, {"start": 2681.94, "end": 2682.1, "word": " طب", "probability": 0.975341796875}, {"start": 2682.1, "end": 2682.32, "word": " معناه", "probability": 0.97607421875}, {"start": 2682.32, "end": 2682.54, "word": " مش", "probability": 0.9453125}, {"start": 2682.54, "end": 2682.84, "word": " هو", "probability": 0.99658203125}, {"start": 2682.84, "end": 2684.2, "word": " و", "probability": 0.5830078125}, {"start": 2684.2, "end": 2684.58, "word": " اقولكوا", "probability": 0.835693359375}, {"start": 2684.58, "end": 2684.82, "word": " شغل", "probability": 0.8128255208333334}, {"start": 2684.82, "end": 2685.32, "word": " واحدة", "probability": 0.9651692708333334}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 105, "seek": 270932, "start": 2686.46, "end": 2709.32, "text": "في جدل على إنه هل هذا اللي إحنا بنعمله الآن اللي أمامك و اللي على اللوح، هل هذا moving average؟ هل هذا إيه علاقة بال average أصلا؟ ما معناه ال average؟ هل هذا المتوسط للقيم هيجمع لواحد مثلا؟ يعني ال average لو جمعناهم ضربناهم في أعداد القيم بيطلع يعني ال average اللي بيعرفه؟ no أكيد no، لأ", "tokens": [41185, 10874, 3215, 1211, 15844, 36145, 3224, 8032, 1211, 23758, 13672, 1829, 11933, 5016, 8315, 44945, 25957, 43761, 6024, 48506, 13672, 1829, 5551, 2304, 10943, 4117, 4032, 13672, 1829, 15844, 13672, 2407, 5016, 12399, 8032, 1211, 23758, 2684, 4274, 22807, 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2707.0, "end": 2707.16, "word": " اللي", "probability": 0.956298828125}, {"start": 2707.16, "end": 2707.92, "word": " بيعرفه؟", "probability": 0.7314453125}, {"start": 2707.92, "end": 2708.16, "word": " no", "probability": 0.422607421875}, {"start": 2708.16, "end": 2708.64, "word": " أكيد", "probability": 0.7938639322916666}, {"start": 2708.64, "end": 2709.04, "word": " no،", "probability": 0.565185546875}, {"start": 2709.04, "end": 2709.32, "word": " لأ", "probability": 0.92578125}], "temperature": 1.0}, {"id": 106, "seek": 272550, "start": 2710.28, "end": 2725.5, "text": "أقولكوا صراحة أنا عملت search على هذا الموضوع ووصلت لقناعة حسب الرأي الغالبية بإنه هو بالغلط حكى كلمة moving average", "tokens": [10721, 39648, 4117, 14407, 20328, 23557, 5016, 3660, 41850, 6225, 42213, 2655, 3164, 15844, 23758, 9673, 2407, 11242, 45367, 4032, 2407, 36520, 2655, 5296, 4587, 8315, 27884, 11331, 35457, 34892, 10721, 1829, 6024, 118, 6027, 3555, 10632, 4724, 28814, 1863, 3224, 31439, 20666, 17082, 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