From: mjp@austin.ibm.com  (Michael Phelps)
Subject: Re: Is it really apples to apples?  (Lawful vs. unlawful use of guns)
Originator: mjp@bwa.kgn.ibm.com
Reply-To: mjp@vnet.ibm.com (Michael J. Phelps)
Organization: IBM Kingston NY
Lines: 51


In article <1993Apr16.092618.22936@husc3.harvard.edu>,
kim39@scws8.harvard.edu (John Kim) writes:
|> I have been convinced of the right of AMericans to an effective 
|> self-defense, but something strikes me as odd among the
|> pro-RKBA arguments presented here.
|> 
|> The numbers comparing hundreds of thousands (indeed, even a
|> million) of instances of law abiding citizens deterring
|> criminal activity, seem valid to me.  Likewise the number
|> of gun-caused homicides each year (about 11,000/year?).  However,
|> it is surprising that the "Evil AntiGun Empire " (Darth Vader
|> breathing sound effect here) never tries to compare
|> "All legitimate gun defenses" vs. "All gun crimes."  Instead, 
|> it's always "All legitimate gun defenses,"  which includes
|> cases in which the criminals are shot but not killed, and
|> cases in which the criminal is not here, vs. just 
|> criminal gun homicides, which only includes case sin which
|> the victim died.
|> 
|> Why is this?  Of course, it wouldn't be unreasonable to say
|> that in each crime already measured (involving guns), the
|> consequnces are already known and it is safe to assume that
|> a gun-based bank robbery last week will not suddenly turn
|> into a gun-basd robbery+homicide.  Whereas in the legitimate
|> gun defenses, one may assume that all those criminals who
|> were deterred would have committed more crime or more
|> serious crimes had they not been deterred.

I think its an attempt to show lives_saved v lives_lost; all other
 gun related crimes don't result in lives_lost.  On the other hand,
 its impossible to know how many of the successful self defenses 
 prevented lives from being lost.  In other words, the lives_lost
 is pretty clear [its the homicide and non negligent manslaughter
 number], while the lives saved is some percentage of the successful 
 self defenses.  Clearly that percentage doesn't have to be real 
 high to show that lives_saved > lives_lost.

As a semi-related point, check out Kleck's "Point Blank".  I believe
 it goes into some related areas; it also is well written and informative. 

|> 
|> -Case Kim
|> 
|> kim39@husc.harvard.edu
|> 

-- 
Michael Phelps, (external) mjp@vnet.ibm.com ..
                (internal) mjp@bwa.kgn.ibm.com .. mjp at kgnvmy         
 (and last but not least a disclaimer)  These opinions are mine..       
