From: gjp@sei.cmu.edu (George Pandelios)
Subject: Re: Patrick Playoffs Look Like This
Organization: The Software Engineering Institute
Lines: 73


In article <BSON.93Apr14154548@hal.gnu.ai.mit.edu>, bson@gnu.ai.mit.edu (Jan Brittenson) writes:
|> In article <1993Apr13.132133.16224@sei.cmu.edu> gjp@sei.cmu.edu (George Pandelios) writes:
|> 
|>  > The Pens won't be playing Montreal, because Boston will win Adams
|>  > divisional play.  Buffalo and Quebec will make decent showings.
|>  > Boston, out of sheer determination, will win a game against the Pens,
|>  > but no more.  They have heart, but the Pens have too many big guns and
|>  > too many ways to win.
|> 
|>    If Boston does indeed win the Adams (nothing is certain), and
|> indeed gets to play the Pens, then I think you'll find a very
|> different Boston team this year. Boston will use every trick in the
|> book to shut down the Pens offense -- something they didn't even try
|> last year. The Pens' weak spot is defense and goaltending -- if Boston

First, I enjoyed reading your post.  Second, I disagree with the Pen's weak
spot being defense and goaltending - for a couple of reasons.  Barrasso has
had a spectacular year - no slow start, consistently sharp, GAA < 3.0, and 
leads the league in wins.  Tommy deserves the Vezina.  Given the lack of 
respect he commands, though, I doubt he will win it.  The other reason 
concerns the Pens' team defense.  They are hovering around 3rd or 4th in the
fewest goals allowed.  That is a big improvement for them, and it indicates
that they are playing better team defense.

|> can shut down the Pens' offense and get an early goal, then you have a
|> real game. If the Pens score first, then it's practically over. I
|> don't think the Pens have the discipline to stick to the team game if
|> they're held scoreless 5 minutes into the second.
|> 
|>    Boston doesn't have the guns of the Pens, but the Pens doesn't have
|> the defense, goaltending, and discipline of Boston. Still, Boston can
|> put the puck in the net. Remember that Boston is not a "run-and-gun"
|> Patrick-style team, although they played run-and-gun hockey for the
|> better part of the regular season (who doesn't). Even Neely backchecks
|> all the way in behind his own net if necessary.
|> 
|>    Penalty-killing will be a big factor. Boston are, I believe +2 over
|> the last 40-something short-handed situations, meaning they have
|> scored 4 SHG while giving up 2 PPG (one in a lackluster game against
|> Ottawa).
|> 
|>    I'd say the series will go to 5 or 6. But I'm much less certain
|> whether it will be in favor of the Pens or the B's. Their styles going
|> into the playoffs are too different to make it predictable. Still, I'd
|> place my bets on the Pens I think. My prediction is that if the B's
|> can get the first goal in four of the games, they'll take the series.
|> Otherwise the Pens will.
|> 
|>    But I'd rather wait and see whether the B's will actually get out
|> of the Adams to begin with... Buffalo, Quebec, and Montreal aren't
|> exactly planning to call it a game and go home!
|> 
|> --
|> 						-- Jan Brittenson
|> 						   bson@gnu.ai.mit.edu

We'll see.  It'll be fun.

George
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