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 If 2010 taught us anything, it's that few people are able to accurately predict even the simplest events in the near-term future, let alone the big ones. From the price of gold, to unemployment, to Google Wave, prognosticators got more than a few major items wrong in their predictions lists.Here, in no particular order, are "10 for 10" -- 10 of the worst predictions of 2010."Unemployment Drops Below 9 Percent," Newsweek "business predictions for 2010," December 2009.Unfortunately, despite increasing efforts to contain our nation's unemployment epidemic, the unemployment rate never dipped below 9.5 percent, and climbed to 9.8 percent in November. Let's hope that a dip in the unemployment rate below 9.5 percent is something we will see in the coming year."The GOP will make good, though not great, gains in the midterms," John Berbyshire, National Review , Dec. 30, 2009Republicans took an incredible 63 seats in the House and came within just a few seats of taking the Senate. But the next part of Derbyshire's prediction -- "They will immediately embark on a strategy guaranteed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory" -- may still come to pass."A new social network will rise to join the big ones." Marshall Kirkpatrick, ReadWriteWeb , Dec. 24, 2009.Not quite. In fact, 2010 was the year of Facebook. It topped 500 million users, it was the subject of constant IPO speculation, Time named its founder Person of the Year, and it spawned a hugely successful feature film. Meantime, its competitors struggled to stay afloat (looking at you, MySpace and Bebo). In short, no one is even attempting to challenge Facebook for supremacy. Perhaps someday a new player will rise to make the king of all social networks a second-rate choice, but that day doesn't look to be coming any time soon."Twitter, as we know it, will fade away. Either acquired or shut down." CNBC Tech Check Predictions 2010 , Dec. 1, 2009Many predicted the downfall and/or complete demise of Twitter in 2010, and many were completely wrong. Twitter has instead silenced its critics by gaining more than 100 million users, increasing staff from 130 to 350 people and raising more than $200 million in financing, raising its value to $3.7 billion, all during the past 12 months "To believe that Apple can somehow succeed where all others have failed is to ignore some fundamental realities of tablet computing." Randall C. Kennedy, Infoworld.com , Dec. 22, 2009Apple still hasn't lost its golden touch: More than 4 million iPad buyers in a single quarter can attest to that."In 2010 ... netbooks will take off," Julia Boorstin, CNBC , Dec. 1, 2009Between the announcement and introduction of the iPad and its many tablet-based competitors, and the lack of performance and high prices, netbook sales spiraled downward in 2010. Expect a continued free-fall in sales unless prices are slashed drastically, or the iPad ceases to exist."In 2010, Wave's utility will become more apparent," Pete Cashmore, CNN Tech , Dec. 3, 2009Massively over-hyped during its introduction in late 2009, Google Wave was to be the central hub of our lives, merging our e-mail, social networking, instant messaging, wiki and every other form of digital media in one "easy to use" package. "Easy to use" it was not, however. So while some were optimistic that Google Wave's utility would shine through eventually, the rest of us decided to simply ignore its clunky, scatterbrained approach to digital life.Google promptly flushed Wave down the toilet in August, less than a year after its introduction."A serious correction could send the precious metal toward $870," Saxo Bank analysts, cited by CNBC , Dec. 17, 2009.Not even close to coming true. Gold prices have steadily rallied upward in the past year, rising past the $1,400 mark per troy ounce late in the year."By late 2010, paying for products and services via a mobile device such as a cell phone will begin to emerge in the mainstream U.S.," Jonathan Reichental, reichental.com , Jan. 1, 2010.Another prediction that may come to pass someday but that wasn't meant to be in 2010. Simply put, people are not yet ready to give up their credit cards in favor of a "credit phone" to pay for purchases on- or offline."We project that at least half the cast will, of their own volition, opt to stay," Sarah Ball, Newsweek , December 2009While the cast of ABC's monumental hit would probably have liked to stay on the island and continue to collect their handsome paychecks, writers instead opted to kill everyone off in the series' finale.Here's one prediction you can count on coming true: Most 2011 predictions will also be spectacularly wrong, and I'll be watching.J. Conboy is a highly opinionated freelance writer with many specialties. You can find more of his work on AOL News, AOL Travel Luxist and various other AOL sites. ||||| BUFFALO -- President Obama had a simple message Thursday for the Republicans who have tried to thwart his economic policies. 
 
 I told you so. 
 
 In a defense of the often unpopular actions his administration has taken to confront the economic crisis, Obama told employees of an expanding manufacturing company here that he was right and his critics were wrong. 
 
 "Today, we are heading in the right direction," Obama said. "Those tough steps we took -- they're working. Despite all the naysayers -- who were predicting failure a year ago -- our economy is growing again." 
 
 Standing in front of heavy equipment in a manufacturing bay at a company that has added workers, Obama said his critics should have to admit that the steps he took -- and they opposed -- ended the recession and have begun to add jobs, if slowly. 
 
 "I knew that if we didn't act boldly and quickly -- if we didn't defy the politics of the moment and do what was necessary -- we would have risked an even greater disaster," he said, calling out the Republican Party as having been "in power when the crisis happened." 
 
 The response from Republicans was swift. They pointed out that White House officials had predicted an unemployment rate of 7.7 percent by now when they were arguing for the president's stimulus package. And they pointed to polls suggesting that the public still does not believe the recovery act has helped them much. 
 
 "Last year, the administration rushed a trillion-dollar stimulus bill through Congress because it said we needed it to create jobs," Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said. "Well, more than a year later unemployment is hovering around 10 percent. And taxpayers want their money back." 
 
 Obama's trip to Buffalo highlights one of the central dilemmas for any president presiding over a slow economic recovery: how to balance the good news and the bad news, the continuing misery and the hopeful signs. 
 
 Just days ago, Obama stood in the Rose Garden at the White House to tout the best job numbers in years -- almost 300,000 jobs created in a single month. Flanked by his economic team, the president used the opportunity to remind Americans how far the country had come since the recession began. 
 
 "At the height of the downturn, around the time that I took office, we were losing an average of 750,000 jobs per month," Obama told the people watching his announcement last Friday morning. 
 
 But as he has done every time there is good news, the president quickly made a pivot, acknowledging the frustration undoubtedly felt by the unemployed every time they hear that the economy is improving and that the recession is over. ||||| More Obama Fail: Another Week, Another Half a Million Out of Work November 19, 2009 Listen To It! WMP | RealPlayer Audio clips available for Rush 24/7 members only -- Join Now! 
 
 
 
 BEGIN TRANSCRIPT RUSH: "The number of newly laid-off American workers seeking unemployment benefits, unchanged last week, remains above the level that would indicate the economy is adding jobs." (laughing) They're struggling so hard, State-Controlled Associated Press, "remaining above the level that would indicate the economy is adding jobs." Still, "new claims are down about 22% from the spring." That's because so many people have given up! "The Labor Department says first-time claims for jobless benefits were a seasonally adjusted 505,000, the same as the previous week's revised figure and matching analysts' expectations." Oh, so nobody was surprised. (laughing) This is a first. Nobody was surprised! When was the last time we've read a jobless report where the experts weren't surprised? Mark this day down on the calendar! It actually says here, "matching analysts' expectations." Okay. So how is that hope and change working out for you? 
 
 
 
 Here's a little added data to this from Rasmussen: "Data from Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 15% of Democrats in the workforce are currently unemployed and looking for a job. Among adults not affiliated with either major party that number is 15.6%, while just 9.9% of Republicans are in the same situation." So the story here is that Democrats and unaffiliateds are more likely to be unemployed than Republicans are. Democrats hardest hit. Democrats, women, and minorities hardest hit. "These findings are from interviews with 15,000 American adults in October. The numbers show an increase in all categories from earlier in the year. The percentage of unemployed Democrats has grown less than a point from 14.2% in February." But it's inching up almost a full point to 15% now. (laughing) I shouldn't be laughing. I'm sorry, I shouldn't be laughing. 
 
 
 
 It's going to be a long, cold winter, ladies and gentlemen. "One Million Workers Could Lose Unemployment Benefits in January Unless Congress Extends Aid -- More than 1 million people will run out of unemployment benefits in January unless Congress quickly extends federal emergency aid, a nonprofit group said Wednesday." So the pressure being brought to bear -- does anybody doubt that we're going to extend unemployment benefits? I don't. This is exactly the agenda. This is the point: Get as many people as possible depending on government. I'll tell you, the more you extend unemployment benefits, the less -- this is just human nature. The less people are going to look for work. Oh. And, folks, I'm sorry to keep pounding you here with reality but I must do it. "More than 14 percent of American homeowners with a mortgage were either behind on their payments or in foreclosure at the end of September, a record-high for the ninth straight quarter and a problem that could threaten the economic recovery." (laughing) Every story contains the fig leaf of hope that maybe there's a recovery going on, but this really could hamper that. 
 
 
 
 "The Mortgage Bankers Association's report Thursday suggests the housing market and broader recovery could be thwarted by the continuing surge in home loan defaults, especially as the unemployment rate keeps rising. Lost jobs, rather than the shady loans made during the housing boom, are now the main reason homeowners fall behind on their mortgages." Shady loans. So now the subprime crisis is being referred to as "shady loans." And, of course, we're supposed to be thinking that the banks are the ones who are "shady" here when it was just the banks who were forced to make these shady loans. I thought this was fixed! I really thought Obama had a program here to fix this. Let me find the related story because it proves... (interruption) Yes, yes, I'm going to get to health care. Look, I can't do everything in the first 15 minutes. I got a lot of stuff on Reid's health care bill. It's funny. Where is this? I should have gotten this off the bottom of the stack and put it up at the top, but basically all of these plans to help people pay their mortgages and so forth, I think maybe 15% of the money's been authorized. That is all there is, which just proves to me again that the whole thing is just a slush fund. It's like 15% of the stimulus. Here it is, and it's in no less than the CNNmoney.com: "Obama Mortgage Rescue: Only a few get lasting help -- Only a handful of homeowners are receiving permanent loan modifications under the Obama administration's foreclosure prevention plan." That's the headline and the subhead. 
 
 
 
 Here's the way the story starts out: "Only a tiny percentage of troubled homeowners have received permanent modifications under President Obama's foreclosure prevention plan, raising concerns about the effectiveness of the $75 billion effort." When will the fact that Obama is helping no one anywhere filter through the haze that surrounds this man? We've had 15% of the stimulus spent. It's a slush fund. And now 1.26% of all trial adjustments were made permanent after three months, only 1.26%. So this $75 billion here is just another slush fund. The overall percentage is this: "Fewer than 5% of the trial modifications on loans owned or guaranteed by Freddie Mac were converted to long-term adjustments as of Sept. 30th." So mortgage delinquencies hit a record high. Obama mortgage rescue? Only a few get lasting help. Billions of dollars were allocated to fix this! Not one thing, not one thing that he has done has resulted in a fix of anything. 
 
 
 
 At some point that fact that he is helping no one anywhere has got to filter through the haze that surrounds him. (interruption) His hair is turning gray because of the pressure? He's losing weight because of the pressure, too. Somebody not eating out there. That's the story. He cares so deeply, you know? He cares so deeply. I mean, his heart aches over all of the pain that is happening out there. Now, this CNN story contradicts the AP story: "While the foreclosure rate has eased a bit recently thanks in part to the growing number of people in trial modifications, some experts fear foreclosures will start rising again unless more people receive permanent assistance." Mortgage delinquencies hit record high is the AP story. Foreclosure rate eased a bit. 
 
 
 
 Get this: "Experts fear foreclosures will start rising again unless more people receive permanent assistance." Permanent assistance. Now, those of you who are in a mortgage, who have a home in a mortgage and you're paying it, understand that there are experts out there who think others ought to have their mortgages permanently paid for by a plan that only has spent 5% of the money allocated to it. So there are slush funds all over this administration. TARP is a slush fund. The stimulus package is a slush fund, no question about that; and now this foreclosure plan, that's obviously a slush fund, too, because it's not being spent on the stated purpose. 
 
 
 
 Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll out just today: Obama's approval rating is 46% in the Fox News/Opinion Dynamic poll. The last period was October 27th and 28th. He was at 50% approve and 41% disapprove. This polling period is 900 registered voters. The 17th and 18th of November which is just the last couple of days. Forty-six approve, 46 disapprove. Eight percent don't know. So he's under 50% in two polls now, Quinnipiac and the Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll. Gallup has him just teetering on the little teeter-totter at 50% and they're doing everything they can -- they're upping the sample to black Americans -- to keep him up at 50% in the Gallup poll. RUSH: "The number of newly laid-off American workers seeking unemployment benefits, unchanged last week, remains above the level that would indicate the economy is adding jobs." (laughing) They're struggling so hard, State-Controlled Associated Press, "remaining above the level that would indicate the economy is adding jobs." Still, "new claims are down about 22% from the spring." That's because so many people have given up! "The Labor Department says first-time claims for jobless benefits were a seasonally adjusted 505,000, the same as the previous week's revised figure and matching analysts' expectations." Oh, so nobody was surprised. (laughing) This is a first. Nobody was surprised! When was the last time we've read a jobless report where the experts weren't surprised? Mark this day down on the calendar! It actually says here, "matching analysts' expectations." Okay. So how is that hope and change working out for you?Here's a little added data to this from Rasmussen: "Data from Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 15% of Democrats in the workforce are currently unemployed and looking for a job. Among adults not affiliated with either major party that number is 15.6%, while just 9.9% of Republicans are in the same situation." So the story here is that Democrats and unaffiliateds are more likely to be unemployed than Republicans are. Democrats hardest hit. Democrats, women, and minorities hardest hit. "These findings are from interviews with 15,000 American adults in October. The numbers show an increase in all categories from earlier in the year. The percentage of unemployed Democrats has grown less than a point from 14.2% in February." But it's inching up almost a full point to 15% now. (laughing) I shouldn't be laughing. I'm sorry, I shouldn't be laughing.It's going to be a long, cold winter, ladies and gentlemen. "One Million Workers Could Lose Unemployment Benefits in January Unless Congress Extends Aid -- More than 1 million people will run out of unemployment benefits in January unless Congress quickly extends federal emergency aid, a nonprofit group said Wednesday." So the pressure being brought to bear -- does anybody doubt that we're going to extend unemployment benefits? I don't. This is exactly the agenda. This is the point: Get as many people as possible depending on government. I'll tell you, the more you extend unemployment benefits, the less -- this is just human nature. The less people are going to look for work. Oh. And, folks, I'm sorry to keep pounding you here with reality but I must do it. "More than 14 percent of American homeowners with a mortgage were either behind on their payments or in foreclosure at the end of September, a record-high for the ninth straight quarter and a problem that could threaten the economic recovery." (laughing) Every story contains the fig leaf of hope that maybe there's a recovery going on, but this really could hamper that."The Mortgage Bankers Association's report Thursday suggests the housing market and broader recovery could be thwarted by the continuing surge in home loan defaults, especially as the unemployment rate keeps rising. Lost jobs, rather than the shady loans made during the housing boom, are now the main reason homeowners fall behind on their mortgages." Shady loans. So now the subprime crisis is being referred to as "shady loans." And, of course, we're supposed to be thinking that the banks are the ones who are "shady" here when it was just the banks who were forced to make these shady loans. I thought this was fixed! I really thought Obama had a program here to fix this. Let me find the related story because it proves... (interruption) Yes, yes, I'm going to get to health care. Look, I can't do everything in the first 15 minutes. I got a lot of stuff on Reid's health care bill. It's funny. Where is this? I should have gotten this off the bottom of the stack and put it up at the top, but basically all of these plans to help people pay their mortgages and so forth, I think maybe 15% of the money's been authorized. That is all there is, which just proves to me again that the whole thing is just a slush fund. It's like 15% of the stimulus. Here it is, and it's in no less than the CNNmoney.com: "Obama Mortgage Rescue: Only a few get lasting help -- Only a handful of homeowners are receiving permanent loan modifications under the Obama administration's foreclosure prevention plan." That's the headline and the subhead.Here's the way the story starts out: "Only a tiny percentage of troubled homeowners have received permanent modifications under President Obama's foreclosure prevention plan, raising concerns about the effectiveness of the $75 billion effort." When will the fact that Obama is helping no one anywhere filter through the haze that surrounds this man? We've had 15% of the stimulus spent. It's a slush fund. And now 1.26% of all trial adjustments were made permanent after three months, only 1.26%. So this $75 billion here is just another slush fund. The overall percentage is this: "Fewer than 5% of the trial modifications on loans owned or guaranteed by Freddie Mac were converted to long-term adjustments as of Sept. 30th." So mortgage delinquencies hit a record high. Obama mortgage rescue? Only a few get lasting help. Billions of dollars were allocated to fix this! Not one thing, not one thing that he has done has resulted in a fix of anything.At some point that fact that he is helping no one anywhere has got to filter through the haze that surrounds him. (interruption) His hair is turning gray because of the pressure? He's losing weight because of the pressure, too. Somebody not eating out there. That's the story. He cares so deeply, you know? He cares so deeply. I mean, his heart aches over all of the pain that is happening out there. Now, this CNN story contradicts the AP story: "While the foreclosure rate has eased a bit recently thanks in part to the growing number of people in trial modifications, some experts fear foreclosures will start rising again unless more people receive permanent assistance." Mortgage delinquencies hit record high is the AP story. Foreclosure rate eased a bit.Get this: "Experts fear foreclosures will start rising again unless more people receive permanent assistance." Permanent assistance. Now, those of you who are in a mortgage, who have a home in a mortgage and you're paying it, understand that there are experts out there who think others ought to have their mortgages permanently paid for by a plan that only has spent 5% of the money allocated to it. So there are slush funds all over this administration. TARP is a slush fund. The stimulus package is a slush fund, no question about that; and now this foreclosure plan, that's obviously a slush fund, too, because it's not being spent on the stated purpose.Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll out just today: Obama's approval rating is 46% in the Fox News/Opinion Dynamic poll. The last period was October 27th and 28th. He was at 50% approve and 41% disapprove. This polling period is 900 registered voters. The 17th and 18th of November which is just the last couple of days. Forty-six approve, 46 disapprove. Eight percent don't know. So he's under 50% in two polls now, Quinnipiac and the Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll. Gallup has him just teetering on the little teeter-totter at 50% and they're doing everything they can -- they're upping the sample to black Americans -- to keep him up at 50% in the Gallup poll. END TRANSCRIPT Read the Background Material...  AP: New Jobless Benefit Claims Unchanged at 505K 
 
  CNN: 1 Million Jobless Face Benefits Loss in January 
 
  Rasmussen Reports: Democrats & Unaffiliateds More Likely To Be Unemployed Than Republicans 
 
  CNN: Obama Mortgage Rescue: Only a Few Get Lasting Help 
 
  FOXNews: Americans Divided on Obama's Job Performance 
 
  Wall Street Journal: AOL Seeks To Reduce Workforce By One-Third 
 
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 THERE is no shortage of explanations for the economy’s maddening inability to leave behind the Great Recession and start adding large numbers of jobs: The deficit is too big. The stimulus was flawed. China is overtaking us. Businesses are overregulated. Wall Street is underregulated. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 But the real culprit — or at least the main one — has been hiding in plain sight. We are living through a tremendous bust. It isn’t simply a housing bust. It’s a fizzling of the great consumer bubble that was decades in the making. 
 
 The auto industry is on pace to sell 28 percent fewer new vehicles this year than it did 10 years ago — and 10 years ago was 2001, when the country was in recession. Sales of ovens and stoves are on pace to be at their lowest level since 1992. Home sales over the past year have fallen back to their lowest point since the crisis began. And big-ticket items are hardly the only problem. 
 
 The Federal Reserve Bank of New York recently published a jarring report on what it calls discretionary service spending, a category that excludes housing, food and health care and includes restaurant meals, entertainment, education and even insurance. Going back decades, such spending had never fallen more than 3 percent per capita in a recession. In this slump, it is down almost 7 percent, and still has not really begun to recover. 
 
 Photo 
 
 The past week brought more bad news. Retail sales in June were weaker than expected, and consumer confidence fell, causing economists to downgrade their estimates for economic growth yet again. It’s a familiar routine by now. Forecasters in Washington and on Wall Street keep saying the recovery’s problems are temporary — and then they redefine temporary. 
 
 If you’re looking for one overarching explanation for the still-terrible job market, it is this great consumer bust. Business executives are only rational to hold back on hiring if they do not know when their customers will fully return. Consumers, for their part, are coping with a sharp loss of wealth and an uncertain future (and many have discovered that they don’t need to buy a new car or stove every few years). Both consumers and executives are easily frightened by the latest economic problem, be it rising gas prices or the debt-ceiling impasse. 
 
 Advertisement Continue reading the main story 
 
 Earlier this year, Charles M. Holley Jr., the chief financial officer of Wal-Mart, said that his company had noticed consumers were often buying smaller packages toward the end of the month, just before many households receive their next paychecks. “You see customers that are running out of money at the end of the month,” Mr. Holley said. 
 
 In past years, many of those customers could have relied on debt, often a home-equity line of credit or a credit card, to tide them over. Debt soared in the late 1980s, 1990s and the last decade, which allowed spending to grow faster than incomes and helped cushion every recession in that period. 
 
 Now, the economic version of the law of gravity is reasserting itself. We are feeling the deferred pain from 25 years of excess, as people try to rebuild their depleted savings. This pattern is a classic one. The definitive book about financial crises has become “This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly,” published in 2009 with exquisite timing, by Carmen M. Reinhart, now of the Peterson Institute for International Economics, and Kenneth S. Rogoff, of Harvard. 
 
 Advertisement Continue reading the main story 
 
 Surveying hundreds of years of crises around the world, Ms. Reinhart and Mr. Rogoff conclude that debt is the primary cause and that the aftermath is “deep and prolonged,” with “profound declines in output and employment.” On average, a modern financial crisis has caused the unemployment rate to rise for more than four years and by 7 percentage points. (We’re now at almost four years and 5 percentage points.) The recovery takes many years more. 
 
 THE notion that the United States needs to begin moving away from its consumer economy — toward more of an investment and production economy, with rising exports, expanding factories and more good-paying service jobs — has become so commonplace that it’s practically a cliché. It’s also true. And the consumer bust shows why. The old consumer economy is gone, and it’s not coming back. 
 
 Sure, house and car sales will eventually surpass their old highs, as the economy slowly recovers and the population continues expanding. But consumer spending will not soon return to the growth rates of the 1980s and ’90s. They depended on income people didn’t have. 
 
 The choice, then, is between starting to make the transition to a different economy and enduring years of stop-and-start economic malaise. 
 
 The easy thing now might be to proclaim that debt is evil and ask everyone — consumers, the federal government, state governments — to get thrifty. The pithiest version of that strategy comes from Andrew W. Mellon, the Treasury secretary when the Depression began: “Liquidate labor, liquidate stocks, liquidate the farmers, liquidate real estate,” Mellon said, according to his boss, President Herbert Hoover. “It will purge the rottenness out of the system.” 
 
 History, however, has a different verdict. If governments stop spending at the same time that consumers do, the economy can enter a vicious cycle, as it did in Hoover’s day. 
 
 The prospect of that cycle is one reason an impasse on the debt ceiling, and a government default, could do so much damage. Global investors may be the only major constituency that has been feeling sanguine about the American economy. If Washington unnerves them, and sends interest rates rising, the effect really could be calamitous. 
 
 But the debt-ceiling debate doesn’t have to be yet another problem for the economy. The right kind of agreement could help soften the consumer bust and also speed the transition to a different kind of economy. 
 
 What might that agreement look like? First, it could reduce deficits in future years, to keep investors confident that Washington too could begin living within its means after years of excess. 
 
 Second, a deal could avoid the Mellon-like problem of having government cut back at the same time as consumers. The Federal Reserve, the Obama administration and Congress seemed to learn this lesson in 2009, when they aggressively responded to the crisis, only to turn more passive in 2010 and spend much of the year hoping for the best. It didn’t work out. Today, the most obvious options for stimulus are extensions of jobless benefits and of a temporary cut in the Social Security tax. 
 
 Advertisement Continue reading the main story 
 
 Advertisement Continue reading the main story 
 
 But they probably shouldn’t be the only options. The biggest flaw with the past stimulus was that it imagined that the old consumer economy might return. Households received large tax rebates, usually with little incentive to spend the money (the cash-for-clunkers program being the exception that proves the rule). People did spend some of these across-the-board rebates, and kept economic growth and unemployment from being even worse, but also saved a sizable portion. 
 
 A more promising approach could instead offer a tax cut to businesses — but only to those expanding their payrolls and, in the process, helping to solve the jobs crisis. Along similar lines, a budget deal could increase funding for medical research and clean energy by even more than President Obama has suggested. These are the kinds of investments that have brought huge returns in the past — think of the Internet, a Defense Department creation — and whose price tags are tiny compared to, say, Medicare or the Bush tax cuts. 
 
 Politics, of course, makes many of these ideas unlikely to happen anytime soon. Unfortunately, though, these debt-ceiling talks won’t be the final chance for Washington to help the country recover from the great consumer bust. That’s the thing about consumer busts. They last for a very long time. ||||| Democrats rushed Monday to put out a fire set the day before by surrogates who declined to answer head-on whether Americans are better off than they were four years ago. 
 
 Asked on NBC’s “Today” show whether Americans were better off, Obama deputy campaign manager Stephanie Cutter was definitive. 
 
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 reset Cutter adds to 'better off' debate 
 
 “Absolutely,” said Cutter, listing statistics about rising unemployment and declining wages in the six months before Obama took office. “By any measure, the country has moved forward over the last four years. It might not be as fast as some people would have hoped, [but] the president agrees with that, he knows we need to do more.” 
 
 “The answer is we are better off,” Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, chairman of the Democratic National Convention, said on CBS’s “This Morning.” “We were losing 800,000 jobs a month, we lost 3.5 million jobs, the mortgage lending crisis was creating a foreclosure problem that we hadn’t seen since probably the Great Depression … We’ve had 29 consecutive months of growth in private-sector jobs… So the answer is yes, we are better off.” 
 
 “Absolutely,” said Democratic National Committee spokesman Brad Woodhouse on CNN’s “Starting Point.” “The truth is, though, is that the American people know, we were literally a plane that was heading, the trajectory was towards the ground when the president took over. He got the stick and pulled us up out of that decline.” 
 
 (Also on POLITICO: Full coverage of the Democratic convention) 
 
 These answers differ from Gov. Martin O’Malley’s (D-Md.) response to the same question Sunday on CBS’s “Face the Nation.” Asked whether Americans were better off, O’Malley replied, “No, but that’s not the question of this election.” 
 
 Even O’Malley changed his response Monday morning, saying on CNN, “We are clearly better off as a country, because we are now creating jobs rather than losing jobs.” 
 
 Also on Sunday, both Senior White House adviser David Plouffe and Obama strategist David Axelrod declined to directly answer whether Americans were better off than they were four years ago. 
 
 Plouffe reverted to talking points about job creation and the failings of the Bush administration, prompting ABC “This Week” host George Stephanopoulos to say, “You still can’t say yes.” 
 
 On “Fox News Sunday,” Axelrod merely said that Americans are now in a “better position” than they would have been in if the Republicans were in office. 
 
 The Romney campaign seized on the comments to make the point that Americans are not doing very well under the president. 
 
 “They made a political calculation that they have to say that things are better today than they were four years ago,” Fehrnstrom said in an interview on Fox News. “They are siding with the 30 percent of Americans who believe we are on the right track. But by siding with them they risk alienating the majority of people in this country that know from their own experience that things are not better.” 
 
 “The middle class has been crushed under President Obama, but he doesn’t seem to get it. Gas prices have doubled, incomes have dropped, poverty is headed toward fifty-year highs, and chronic unemployment is at unprecedented levels. But the Obama campaign now has a clear message for Americans – you’re doing well, you just don’t know it. Americans deserve a president who understands we’re not better off and has a plan to fix it,” added Amanda Henneberg, a Romney spokesperson. 
 
 Correction: an earlier version of this article misspelled the name of L.A. Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. ||||| Americans are growing more pessimistic about the economy and the war in Afghanistan, and are losing faith that Democrats have better solutions than Republicans, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll. 
 
 Underpinning the gloom: Nearly two-thirds of Americans believe the economy has yet to hit bottom, a sharply higher percentage than the 53% who felt that way in January. 
 
 The sour national mood appears all-encompassing and is dragging down ratings for the GOP too, suggesting voters above all are disenchanted with the political establishment in Washington. Just 24% express positive feelings about the Republican Party, a new low in the 21-year history of the Journal's survey. Democrats are only slightly more popular, but also near an all-time low. 
 
 A new WSJ/NBC News poll found that Americans are becoming grimmer about the economy with nearly two-thirds believing that the economy has yet to hit bottom. Peter Wallsten and David Weidner discuss. Also, Scott McCartney finds that some airlines are more fuel efficient than others, and others are gas guzzlers. 
 
 The results likely foreshadow a poor showing in November's mid-term for Democrats, whose leaders had hoped the public would grow more optimistic about the economy and, as a result, more supportive of the party agenda. Now, despite the weak Republican numbers, the survey shows frustrated voters on the left are less interested than impassioned voters on the right to in the election. 
 
 "Even with Republicans having low numbers, they are the opposition party and are going to benefit from people saying, 'We're ticked off and we want a change,"' said Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who conducted the survey with Democratic pollster Peter Hart. "The way you vote your discontent is to say you're going to vote Republican." 
 
 Mr. Hart said the 2010 contest is being pulled by the sentiment associated with the JetBlue flight attendant who fled his plane via the emergency chute after an altercation with a passenger. Calling it the "JetBlue election," Mr. Hart said: "Everyone's hurling invective and they're all taking the emergency exit." 
 
 As in recent polls, Americans are split on President Barack Obama's job performance, with 47% approving and 48% disapproving. But a majority disapproves of his performance on the economy. And six in 10, including 83% of independents and a quarter of Democrats, say they are only somewhat or not at all confident that Mr. Obama has the right policies to improve it. 
 
 Pulse of the Poll View Interactive See results from The Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll. Following the Polls View Interactive Pick your own answers to some survey questions and see how you line up with the poll respondents. 
 
 The survey suggests that Democrats should expect little if any appreciation from voters for legislative achievements such as overhauling the health care and financial systems. Six in 10 Americans rated Congress' performance this year as below average or one of the worst. And the economy is dominating voters' worries. Among those who believe the economy will get worse over the next year, 67% want a GOP-led Congress. 
 
 "Several months ago I was very hopeful" said Fort Worth, Texas, public-schools administrator Susan Stitt, 63 years old, an independent who leans Republican. "But in May or so, about three months ago, I just started hearing more and more little things on the news that would chip away at my confidence." 
 
 Denis Goulet, 59 years old, a contract manager for Verizon from Calvert County, Md., and a Democratic-leaning independent, said the economy made him "feel like Charlie Brown kicking the football." 
 
 "Every time things start looking better, they start looking bad again" he said. Mr. Goulet said he has always voted for Democrats, but doesn't know how to vote this year. "I have gotten as wrapped up as anyone else just trying to stay afloat." 
 
 View Full Image AFP/Getty Images The poll finds that 68% of Americans now feel less confident the war in Afghanistan will come to a successful conclusion. Above, U.S. soldiers gather after disembarking from a base in Kandahar. 
 
 On the Afghanistan war, which had been an area of strength for the president since he revamped his military strategy, 68% of Americans now feel less confident the war will come to a successful conclusion. Just 44% approve of the president's job on Afghanistan, down from a majority who approved in March, the last time the poll addressed the topic. 
 
 Voters appear evenly split on which party they hope will control Congress after November. But Republicans retain an advantage among those more likely to turn out. Among those most interested in the election, half favor GOP control and 39% support the Democrats. One positive movement for Democrats: That 11-point gap is down from 21 points in June. 
 
 Democrats and the president retain strong approval among minorities. But they are losing some groups that helped the party take control of Congress in 2006, particularly working-class whites. Among whites with less than a college education—a group the two parties split in the most-recent midterms—the GOP has a 16-point advantage, 49% to 33%, when voters were asked which party they wanted to control Congress. 
 
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 Republicans, meantime, are gaining ground on a number of issues that have traditionally been advantages for Democrats. More Americans now think the GOP would do a better job on the economy—an advantage the party last held briefly in 2004 but has not enjoyed consistently since the mid-1990s. On one of the Democrats' core issues, Social Security, just 30% now think the party would do a better job than the GOP, compared to 26% who favor the Republicans. That margin was 28 points in 2006. 
 
 "The Republicans don't have a message as to why people should vote for them, but it's pretty clear why you shouldn't vote for the Democrats," said poll respondent Tim Krsak, 33, a lawyer from Indianapolis and independent who has been unemployed since January. "So by default, you have to vote for the other guy." 
 
 Write to Peter Wallsten at peter.wallsten@wsj.com ||||| From: To: 
 
 The public has consistently expressed strong interest in the health care debate, but relatively few Americans can correctly answer two key questions related to the Senate’s consideration of health care legislation. 
 
 
 
 In the latest installment of the Pew Research Center’s News IQ Quiz, just 32% know that the Senate passed its version of the legislation without a single Republican vote. And, in what proved to be the most difficult question on the quiz, only about a quarter (26%) knows that it takes 60 votes to break a filibuster in the Senate and force a vote on a bill. The survey was conducted before Massachusetts Republican Scott Brown won a special election to the Senate on Jan. 19; Brown’s election means Senate Democrats can no longer count on a 60-vote majority once he takes office. 
 
 About six-in-ten (59%) correctly identify China as the foreign country holding the most U.S. government debt. Nearly as many (57%) know that the United States imports two-thirds of the oil it consumes. As was the case in previous knowledge surveys, a majority (55%) knows the current unemployment rate is about 10%. However, far fewer (36%) correctly estimate the current level of the Dow Jones Industrial Average at about 10,000 points. 
 
 The news quiz, conducted by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press Jan. 14-17 among 1,003 adults reached on cell phones and landlines, asked 12 multiple choice questions on subjects ranging from economics and foreign affairs to prominent people in the news. Americans answered an average of 5.3 questions correctly. 
 
 The survey finds that while the public struggled with most of the political questions on the survey, most Americans (56%) know that there currently is more than one woman serving on the Supreme Court. Notably, this is the only question on the quiz where as many women as men answer correctly; men scored significantly better on other questions. 
 
 In response to questions about terrorism and national security, half (50%) correctly identify Yemen as the country where intelligence officials believe the suspect in an attempted Christmas Day airline bombing received training and bomb materials. A slightly smaller percentage (43%) knows that during all of 2009 there were more American military fatalities in Afghanistan than in Iraq; 32% said more U.S. troops were killed in Iraq. This question proved difficult for many, even though interest in developments in Afghanistan – and media coverage – picked up in late 2009 as President Obama announced his war strategy [See "Top Stories of 2009: Economy, Obama and Health Care," released Dec. 29, 2009]. 
 
 Questions about people in the news round out the quiz update. About four-in-ten (39%) know that Nevada Democrat Harry Reid is the majority leader of the U.S. Senate. About a third (32%) correctly pick Michael Steele as the chairman of the Republican National Committee. Interestingly, nearly half of Republicans (48%) are able to identify Reid as Senate majority leader compared with just a third (33%) of Democrats. More Republicans can identify Reid as majority leader than can identify Steel as chairman of the RNC (37%). 
 
 About four-in-ten (41%) correctly say that Stephen Colbert is a comedian and television talk show host. This is the only question on the quiz that more people younger than 30 than older people answer correctly (49% vs. 39%). 
 
 Knowledge and the Senate Health Care Bill 
 
 Asked how many GOP senators voted for the chamber’s health care bill on Dec. 24, only 32% know that the measure received no support from Republican members. About as many answer incorrectly, saying that five (13%), 10 (8%), or 20 (8%) GOP Senators voted for the bill. About four-in-ten (39%) do not know or decline to answer. 
 
 A smaller percentage (26%) knows that 60 votes are needed to break a filibuster in the Senate. About as many (25%) mistakenly say that a simple majority of 51 votes can break a filibuster. 
 
 As with most other questions on the news quiz, well-educated people, older Americans and men are more likely to correctly answer the questions about the Senate vote on health care and the filibuster. 
 
 Less than a third of Republicans or Democrats can correctly identify the number of votes needed to end a filibuster (30% among Republicans, 25% among Democrats). College graduates fared better than other demographic groups on this question, but fewer than half of college graduates (45%) know that it takes 60 Senate votes to overcome a filibuster. 
 
 
 
 
 
 Republicans More Knowledgeable on Many Issues 
 
 Republicans, on average, answered one more question correctly than Democrats (5.9 vs. 4.9 correct). These differences are partly a reflection of the demographics of the two groups; Republicans tend to be older, well educated and male, which are characteristics associated with political and economic knowledge. Still, even when these factors are held constant, Republicans do somewhat better than Democrats on the knowledge quiz. 
 
 Among the largest gaps comes over knowledge of who leads the U.S. Senate. About half (48%) of Republicans are able to identify Reid as the current majority leader, while only a third of Democrats can name their own party’s Senate leader. More Republicans can name Reid (48%) than Steele (37%), the RNC chairman. 
 
 The one question in the survey in which Democrats slightly outperform Republicans is about the number of women now serving on the U.S. Supreme Court. Close to six-in-ten Democrats (58%) know that more than one woman serves on the high court, compared with 50% of Republicans. Though the Democratic Party is made up of more women than men, this finding does not appear driven mostly by gender. Republican men and women are about equally likely to answer this question correctly (about half each), while solid majorities of both Democratic men (60%) and women (57%) get this question right. 
 
 
 
 
 
 Large Age Gap in Knowledge 
 
 
 
 As in previous knowledge surveys, older people fare much better on most questions than do young people. The largest gaps come on questions about the Christmas Day terrorist plot and the name of the Senate leader. 
 
 When asked to name the country that intelligence officials believe trained and equipped the suspected Christmas Day bomber, close to six-in-ten (59%) Americans 50 and older correctly identify Yemen, compared with just 25% of those younger than 30. Similarly, there is a 34-point difference between those younger than 30 and older than 50 in knowledge of who leads the U.S. Senate (16% vs. 50%). 
 
 The most notable exception to this pattern is the ability of young people to identify Colbert. About half (49%) of those younger than 30 correctly identify the comedian and talk show host compared with 38% of those older than 50. 
 
 Gender Differences on Economic Questions 
 
 
 
 The Pew Research Center’s news consumption surveys have consistently measured greater attentiveness to news about politics and economics among men than among women. The results of the News IQ Quiz tend to reflect these news preferences. 
 
 In the current poll, men on average answer more questions correctly than women (6.0 for men vs. 4.6 for women). The gender gap in news knowledge is greatest on the question of which country holds the most U.S. government debt (70% of men answer correctly vs. 49% of women) and the current level of the Dow (45% of men know this vs. 27% of women). But there is no gender divide on the item about the number of women on the Supreme Court. Roughly equal proportions of men (57%) and women (56%) answer this correctly. 
 
 News Knowledge on Average 
 
 
 
 The survey measures overall news knowledge using the 12 multiple choice questions in an additive scale. For each question answered correctly respondents receive one point on a scale ranging from zero (none correct) to 12 (all correct). In the current News IQ Quiz, just 2% of the public answered all questions correctly (12 out of 12), while 6% failed to answer a single question right. 
 
 Compared with the News Quiz from nearly a year ago, it proved harder for the public to answer at least half the questions correctly this time. Only 42% of Americans answered at least six questions right, compared with 71% who answered at least half the questions correctly in March 2009. 
 
 Consistent with past knowledge tests, demographic groups differed in how well they performed on the quiz. Men correctly answered an average of 6.0 out of 12 questions correctly, while women answered an average of 4.6 questions right. Those with college degrees correctly answered 7.3 questions correctly on average. Those with some college experience answered an average of 5.4 questions and those with no college experience answered 3.9 correctly on average. 
 
 As in the past, older Americans generally did better than young people. Respondents 50 and older could correctly answer an average of about two more questions than those under age 30 (5.9 vs. 3.8). 
 
 Republicans averaged 5.9 correct answers. Independents correctly answered 5.6 on average and Democrats answered 4.9 correct on average. ||||| NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Major U.S. stock markets surged Thursday after investors cheered a possible short-term agreement between Republicans and Democrats to raise the nation's borrowing limit. 
 
 
 
 The S&P 500 advanced 2.2% to 1,692.56, the benchmark's biggest jump since January 2. 
 
 
 
 House Speaker John Boehner urged his Republican colleagues to agree to a short-term debt ceiling increase, while White House Press Secretary Jay Carney didn't signal that President Obama would reject the plan. 
 
 
 
 "History has proven time and again that the system is stronger and more resilient than the politicians and we are confident that this again will be the case," J. Wesley Clayton, managing director and founder of HighTower's Twickenham Wealth Advisors in Huntsville, AL commented in an email. "We always take a longer term view of the markets, and the current version of proven political incompetence to solve problems effectively suggests that the more things change, the more they stay the same. 
 
 The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.2% to 15,176.07 while the Nasdaq added 2.3% to 3,760.75. 
 
 
 
 
 
 Best Buy (BBY) shares soared 7.6% to $39 after Stifel Nicolaus reported that consumer interest in shopping at the electronics retail chain appears to be improving at a steady pace with late September and early October data showing high single digit year-over-year improvements. Separately, the company is reportedly getting ready to launch a trade-in offer that would allow customers to trade in a working smartphone for a $100 gift card that could go toward the purchase of the new Apple AAPL iPhone 5s and 5c smartphones. 
 
 Gilead Sciences (GILD) jumped 6.5% to $62.74 after the Foster City, Calif.-based biopharmaceutical company said that it was able to stop clinical trials of the experimental idelalisib drug after an independent committee said that there was sufficient data to show that the treatment is effective in preventing the progression of illness in chronic lymphocytic leukemia patients who are not fit for chemotherapy. 
 
 shares gained 5.4% to $303.99 afteranalysts initiated coverage of the movie and TV show streaming service with a "buy" explaining that it is the best way to play global broadband growth over the next five years. 
 
 was the worst performer on the S&P 500 after the company cut its third-quarter revenue and earnings per share projections . Shares of the IT services company plunged 11.9% to $58.75 
 
 Treasury Secretary Jack Lew set a do-or-die tone early in the day when he appeared before the Senate Finance Committee to warn lawmakers that a failure to reach an agreement would risk the U.S. falling short on payments to public programs such as Social Security and to global creditors.Lew said the country shouldn't have to be put in a position where it has to pick and choose which principal and interest payments can be fulfilled and which ones must be delayed. "There is no way of knowing the irrevocable damage such an approach would have on our economy and financial markets," Lew said. 
 
 The nomination of Janet Yellen to replace Ben Bernanke as the chief of thecontinued to resonate with investors on hopes that her appointment would guarantee a smooth transition at the helm of the central bank and a mild, incremental unwinding of the central bank's massive bond-buying program.The market has been deprived of key economic data since the government shutdown began 10 days ago. However, Thursday brought the weekly jobless claims report from the Labor Department. An increase to 374,000 from 308,000 was reported. Economists are expecting an increase to 310,000. 
 
 The benchmark 10-year Treasury was down 9/32, raising the yield to 2.695%. 
 
 -- Written by Andrea Tse in New York 
 
 >To contact the writer of this article, click here: Andrea Tse .>
– The media gave us plenty of predictions for 2010, and plenty of them simply didn’t come true. AOL News lists some of the most glaring: Job growth will begin again. Newsweek predicted it unemployment would fall “below 9%,” but it was never less than 9.5%. Republicans won’t storm the midterms. The National Review foresaw “good, though not great, gains.” The GOP won 63 House seats. Twitter will fizzle. Tell that to the 100 million new users this year, CNBC. We’ll start riding Google Wave. Or so thought CNN. Google shut it down within a year of its debut. Netbooks will be hot. CNBC was wrong here, too: sales sunk. The iPad won’t sell. More than 4 million buyers proved Infoworld.com incorrect. Americans will use mobile devices like credit cards. So said reichental.com. Swiped your smartphone lately?