Iowa became the stage for electrifying political theater on caucus eve as six GOP presidential candidates tried to make a last-minute connection with voters — all while hounded by hundreds of reporters who documented their every move in mini messages on Twitter. 
 
 An expected 115,000 to 120,000 Iowa Republicans will record their choices tonight, GOP strategist John Stineman of West Des Moines estimated. 
 
 The race has shaped up as a three-way dead heat among Mitt Romney, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum, according to The Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll, conducted last week. But in a sign of how unsettled the race remains, 41 percent of those who have a first choice could still be persuaded to change their minds, the poll found. 
 
 After 354 days of campaigning and more than 900 events, from the sweaty heat of the Iowa State Fair to skin-biting wind on Monday, the candidates are making their final arguments. 
 
 They spent the final full day of campaigning before the first-in-the-nation vote in one last-gasp scramble, traveling from town to city. 
 
 The words “mob scene” cropped up on Twitter throughout the day Monday to describe campaign events, but it was all relative. 
 
 “Callista and I are overwhelmed by the turnout this week,” tweeted Newt Gingrich, who drew 125 in Independence, then 225 in Walford. 
 
 A tiny cafe in Polk City, with a 49-person capacity, was quickly jammed for Santorum. 
 
 “Our woman in IA, @ShushWalshe reports huge crowds at Santorum events. Like body-surfing huge. Get crushed in stampede huge,” ABC News’ @AmyEWalter tweeted. 
 
 About 200 people were there, inside and outside, with a heavy load of reporters. 
 
 At a supply warehouse in Dubuque, 600 people were treated to “Eye of the Tiger” and “Born Free” as they waited to see Romney. And before more than 600 in Marion, an upbeat Romney declared: “We’re going to win this thing.” (Aides said later he was referring to the nomination.) 
 
 The frenetic politicking will continue yet tonight. All 4,000 to 6,000 caucusgoers in Black Hawk County will gather under one roof — inside the UNI-Dome, Black Hawk County GOP Chairman Mac McDonald said. They will be divided into precincts to vote, with cameras from Fox News and CNN watching, he said. At least two candidates — Michele Bachmann and Gingrich — are expected to make personal pitches there about 6 p.m. 
 
 Here’s how the final day before the Iowa caucuses went down, per Twitter and Des Moines Register reporters on the scene: 
 
 MITT ROMNEY 
 
 On the road from Davenport (crowd of more than 300), one of Romney’s sons posted a Twitter photo of his father on the campaign bus. 
 
 “One of the vents on the bus is blowing cold air, so the mittster is duct taping it closed. Typical dad,” Tagg Romney tweeted. 
 
 Romney held rallies in four cities Monday, more campaigning than he’s done in Iowa on a single day since the 2008 cycle. The leader in the Iowa Poll is banking on his electability as a key to success. 
 
 Ron Breitbach, 51, of Dubuque, who caucused for Romney in 2008 and plans to do so again tonight, said: “He’s a problem-solver. He’s a leader.” 
 
 Breitbach, who owns a golf course and sports center, added: “He’s had so much success, and that’s what we need — we need someone with success for people to rally around.” 
 
 RON PAUL 
 
 Paul, who tweaks reporters for discounting him, descended into their lair Monday, the Marriott in downtown Des Moines. 
 
 “Ron Paul no fool,” tweeted @RogerPolitico. “Holding rally in hotel where 400 reporters are staying. I think all of them are here.” 
 
 Some of the bigfoots: Maggie Haberman of Politico, Joe Klein of Time, Soledad O’Brien of CNN, Dan Balz of the Washington Post, Carl Cameron of Fox News and Chris Matthews of MSNBC. 
 
 Hundreds of people packed the hotel meeting room. Paul also drew 200 in Cedar Falls and 300 in Cedar Rapids. 
 
 The TV camera crews beelined to the men in the Des Moines audience with heavy facial hair, tattoos and nose rings. 
 
 Aaron Lea, a 34-year-old painter from Des Moines with a grunge look, was pressed for interviews by three news agencies within minutes. 
 
 “You wouldn’t see people like this at a Bachmann or Mitt Romney rally, so it makes it a point of interest,” said Lea, an independent who will register as a Republican at the caucuses. 
 
 The Huffington Post’s @mlcalderone: “Sign at Paul’s Marriott event: ‘A Ron Paul win will discredit the mainstream media.’ ” 
 
 Paul, a libertarian-leaning Texas congressman in second place in the Iowa Poll, often starts out his speeches by attacking the sacred cow of military spending and predicts a looming global financial collapse. On Monday, he boiled down his message to one word: liberty. 
 
 RICK SANTORUM 
 
 Santorum, a Christian conservative from Pennsylvania, said at the Reising Sun Cafe in Polk City that he has raised more money in the last few days than he did in the last few months. 
 
 The Register’s latest Iowa Poll shows Santorum in third place, and rising. 
 
 Glenn Larson, a retired insurance underwriter from Clive, said Santorum represents his values: opposed to abortion, in favor of balancing the budget. 
 
 “I think he has been neglected and pushed aside by the liberal news media because they think he can beat Obama. They don’t want him to win,” Larson said. 
 
 Santorum knocked his rivals a bit. 
 
 “We aren’t looking for a chief executive officer. We’re looking for a commander in chief,” said @JimAcostaCNN, who caught the jab at Romney. 
 
 A bus with “Santorum for President” on the side appeared on the trail Monday. 
 
 “Chuck Laudner says when Rick Santorum saw the big bus festooned with his name … he said ‘I’m not paying for THAT!’ ” the Los Angeles Times’ @RAbcarian said. 
 
 The RV is just on loan, driven by the Duggar family of Arkansas, anti-abortion activists with 19 children. 
 
 Santorum drew more than 200 at the Pizza Ranch in Boone, including Fox News’ Bret Baier. Later, 400 people chanted “We pick Rick!” at an Altoona Pizza Ranch. 
 
 “Young woman just fainted at Santorum event it is so crowded,” reported the Register’s @WilliamPetroski from Boone. 
 
 NEWT GINGRICH 
 
 Gingrich, who last month declared certain victory in the nominating contest, talked again Monday about what he said was the unfair influence of negative ads in Iowa, and sounded a note of caucus defeat. 
 
 “Newt on IA: ‘I don’t think I’m going to win … I think the volume of negativity has done enough damage,’ ” @SarahH_CBSNJ tweeted as Gingrich talked to reporters in Independence. 
 
 Gingrich, a former U.S. House speaker, said: “It has nothing to do with governing America and solving our problems. It has everything to do with a very cheap and I think a very, very destructive model of politics, which is part of why Washington is sick today.” 
 
 At a later stop, he called the comment a mistake in wording, and pinned his hopes on the voters who say they could still change their minds. 
 
 Ed Larson and his wife, Janet, shook Gingrich’s hand, but they said they were not sure how they would caucus, since much of what happens depends on the consensus of their neighbors. 
 
 The Larsons downplayed Gingrich’s fourth-place ranking in the Iowa Poll. “It isn’t a concern because the polls are media-generated, and it changes every hour,” Ed Larson said. 
 
 RICK PERRY 
 
 “Perry press corp traveling 375 miles on the last day of the Iowa bus tour, ending the day with the stop we’ve all waited for — Perry, IA,” tweeted ABC News’ @ArletteSaenz. 
 
 When the Texas governor was introduced in Sioux City as the “next governor of the United States,” the crowd laughed. That got tweets with #oops hashtags. 
 
 Perry, who is fifth in the Iowa Poll, made a final plea to the crowd of 100: Decide by conscience, not poll numbers. 
 
 “A voter asks Perry what she can do to make him seem more electable in next 30 hours,” the Register’s @JoshHafner tweeted. “Perry says #iacaucus is just ‘mile one’ in a marathon.” 
 
 Perry said his campaign has the organizational endurance to win the nomination. 
 
 Jan Hansen, a teacher from Le Mars, decided in Sioux City that she’s caucusing for him. “I hear people saying all the time we need to choose the candidate that we feel is the most electable,” she said. “Vote your heart. That’s what he said.” 
 
 MICHELE BACHMANN 
 
 “Vote for a strong Iowa woman!” Bachmann told one backer amid a crush of people at Paula’s, a small restaurant in West Des Moines’ Valley Junction. 
 
 “You got a camera? We should take a picture. And then go home and Facebook it. Tell everybody to come out and caucus,” the Minnesota congresswoman said. 
 
 The crowd was in the dozens rather than hundreds. A team of 22 juniors and seniors from Blake School in Minneapolis was on a school-sponsored trip to witness the caucuses. 
 
 “Mostly Obama fans. No love for hometown Bachmann,” messaged the Register’s @JasonNoble1. 
 
 Bachmann, who had a horde of reporters turn up (Tucker Carlson, Andrea Mitchell and David Brooks),wandered to the Diggity Dog puppy treat shop, where her husband, Marcus, bought gifts for the family dog, Boomer. 
 
 Bachmann was up at dawn for TV appearances on “The Early Show” on CBS and “Morning Joe” on MSNBC. She ended her day with a 9 p.m. rally at campaign headquarters in Urbandale. 
 
 Standing on a pickup truck tailgate, Bachmann thanked perhaps 150 volunteers for their work on her behalf. 
 
 Des Moines voter Sally Mead said after hearing Bachmann in West Des Moines: “I’ll follow with whatever she has in mind that she thinks is right. She’s genuine.” ||||| ALTOONA, Iowa - A large crowd of voters - many enthusiastic supporters - plus a mass of cameras and reporters turned a Rick Santorum event into a chaotic scene, but there was no doubt where the interest was. 
 
 The former Pennsylvania senator spoke to voters in a side room of the campaign favorite, Pizza Ranch, Monday evening. Last week, there would be no need to occupy the entire restaurant, the side room would be enough. Monday, the day before Iowans kick off the voting process the entire restaurant was packed and cameras swarmed the candidate. 
 
 Standing on a chair and using a bullhorn, Santorum gave voters waiting for him in the main part of the restaurant, who were not able to hear him, his final pitch. 
 
 "I don't know what's going to happen tomorrow night, but this has been an amazing experience," Santorum said to the crowd of about 150. "The people of Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina have not only made me a better candidate, not only will they make be a better president, but they've made me a better person." 
 
 He told Iowans to, "Trust what you've seen and heard … You want to be first? Lead." 
 
 He repeated what he's been stressing all week: don't vote for someone just because others say they are electable. 
 
 "They may not be able to do what American needs to get done and that's a victory that will feel very empty," Santorum said, wearing a gray sweater vest. "It will not be Pizza Ranch pizza, you will walk out of those caucuses hungry. Walk out of those caucuses like you just ate at a Pizza Ranch buffet." 
 
 Santorum added: "You will not only shock this country, but you will shock the world." 
 
 It was the last of five events in a day where every event was packed with voters, political tourists, and a crush of reporters and cameras. 
 
 While leaving the Hotel Pattee in Perry, Iowa - his second event of the day - Santorum said his campaign, despite their financial disadvantage, does have the ground game in New Hampshire to compete there. 
 
 "We are going to do better, we are going to move up that ladder and if we can finish in the top three or four that would be a good finish for us," Santorum told ABC News. 
 
 Mitt Romney's SuperPAC, "Restore Our Future," has spent three million dollars in the state on advertising, most of it targeting Newt Gingrich directly. When asked how he would handle being on the receiving end of the onslaught of negative ads his rivals have had to endure, Santorum answered, "I'm not Newt Gingrich. I feel pretty comfortable that their attacks will ring hollow coming from where they are coming from." 
 
 He stressed that despite his conservative stances he will be able to appeal to more moderate voters citing his wins in Pennsylvania and that voters trust him. 
 
 "People tell me, 'I don't agree with everything you say, but I trust you,'" Santorum said. 
 
 Throughout the day he stressed electability, but in Perry without being asked he mentioned working with Democrats, including Barbara Boxer and Hillary Clinton. 
 
 "When I agreed with her, I worked with her," Santorum said referring to Boxer as a way of criticizing President Obama for not working across the aisle. "We've got to set it aside because we have a country to run." 
 
 At Santorum's third event of the day in Boone he told the crowd that voters were receiving robo-calls that said he wasn't tough enough on preserving the second amendment. 
 
 "Believe it or not, someone is out there making robo-calls saying I'm against the second amendment! Whoever that is - Ron Paul - whoever that is," Santorum said, pointing his finger directly at the Texas congressman. "If Ron Paul got his way, there'd be no gun manufacturers in this country." 
 
 At that moment a protester and supporter of Paul's shouted that Santorum was "lying." The candidate didn't pause and the protester soon left. 
 
 The event was also in a Pizza Ranch, Santorum's third for the day and by their count 33 rd Pizza Ranch stop, It was so tight and warm a woman fainted and was receiving medical attention. ||||| Back to previous page 
 
 6 candidates set off on Iowa sprint as caucuses’ outcome remains uncertain 
 
 DES MOINES — One week before Republican voters begin selecting a presidential nominee, the race in Iowa is as muddled as any in recent times as six candidates set off on a sprint to win a contest that leading strategists here say is up for grabs. 
 
 Former House speaker Newt Gingrich, who only a few weeks ago had a clear lead, appears to have lost significant ground under an onslaught of negative advertisements. One beneficiary may be former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, who had been making only sporadic appearances in Iowa but this week begins a concerted late push, with operatives in the state suggesting he might actually win. 
 
 Rep. Ron Paul (Tex.), whose campaign organization remains strong, has run into controversies over racially charged writings, while three second-tier candidates are trying to seize momentum. One of them, former senator Rick Santorum (Pa.), got the backing of two leading conservatives last week and is seen by strategists as beginning to make a move, although the question is how significant it might be. 
 
 “I’ve never seen it this fluid, this late in the process, with this many candidates,” Iowa GOP Chairman Matt Strawn said. “In the past, maybe it’s been down to a binary choice of a couple of candidates, but the fact that half of Iowans are telling pollsters they could change their minds is unprecedented.” 
 
 Santorum was the only candidate in the state Monday. He went bird hunting with Iowa conservatives, including Rep. Steve King, whose endorsement most candidates are aggressively seeking. King said after the hunt with Santorum that he remains undecided. 
 
 “Our campaign is clearly the one that is rising right now and has the momentum,” Santorum, who was wearing bright-orange hunting gear said. “No votes have been cast, and I feel very, very good that all the work that we’ve done, all the groundwork we’re doing, the foundation we’ve laid is coming and working just perfectly.” 
 
 The other candidates are set to return Tuesday for their final pushes after a weekend break for the Christmas holiday. In the meantime, Romney and Texas Gov. Rick Perry launched television advertisements Monday that seemed designed to appeal to tea party activists. Romney focused on cutting government spending while Perry pumped his proposal to turn Congress into a part-time institution. 
 
 Gingrich, who is trying to regain some of the enthusiasm that lifted his candidacy early in the month, began to draw fresh contrasts with Romney over his economic policy and avowed conservatism. In a statement, the Gingrich campaign asked: “Can we trust a Massachusetts Moderate to enact a conservative agenda?” 
 
 Gingrich last week acknowledged that the negative ads — aired by a political action committee financed by Romney allies as well as Paul’s and Perry’s campaigns — had hurt him here and that he would have to fight back more aggressively. Gingrich plans to contrast his tax proposals with Romney’s, which his campaign will describe as “timid” and “moderate,” through conservative surrogates as well as the candidate himself on a 44-stop bus tour, according to a senior campaign official. 
 
 But some Republican operatives question whether it is too late for Gingrich to regain his standing. 
 
 “These negative ads that are running against him are effective,” Iowa strategist Craig Robinson said. “There’s not going to be any singular moment where he can regain the footing. Nothing will allow him to pull the break in these polls.” 
 
 Romney will touch down in the Hawkeye State on Tuesday afternoon to deliver a speech in Davenport. He will then embark on a three-day bus tour through communities where he performed well in the 2008 caucuses. Romney also will employ a series of surrogates, including New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Sen. John Thune (S.D.), to help blanket the state with his message. 
 
 Perry and Rep. Michele Bachmann (Minn.), who promised to hit all 99 counties in the final weeks, will lead their own bus tours Tuesday. 
 
 All other candidates concede that Paul has a strong organization but contend that there may be a ceiling to his support. The controversy over newsletters produced in the early 1990s, in between his stints as a member of Congress, threatens to disrupt his message. Written in the early 1990s, the newsletters, circulated in libertarian circles, included highly insensitive writings about racial issues and black leaders and activists. 
 
 Paul has disavowed the writings and said he never read them until years later. But he is likely to face questions when he returns here. 
 
 The contest has lacked the intensity of past Iowa campaigns, with the leading candidates making vastly fewer visits. But this week marks a newly frenetic pace of retail campaigning, with Republican voters giving the candidates a final look before heading into the Jan. 3 precinct caucuses. 
 
 “All those undecided voters we’ve been talking about for months will firm up,” said Iowa GOP operative Tim Albrecht. “All the candidates are doing the right things, and that is they’re hopping on a bus and making the final pitch to Iowans. There’s no better way to secure support for the caucuses than to look an Iowan in the eye and ask for it.” 
 
 GOP leaders in some of the state’s biggest Republican strongholds described an unusual state of uncertainty, with no clear favorite heading into the caucuses. They said anecdotal evidence suggests that after visiting all 99 counties, many of them multiple times, Santorum’s hard work may finally be paying off with a late surge. But he has yet to make a sizable leap in public polling. 
 
 “He’s working very hard to drive his turnout up, and he’s made a very favorable impression on people,” said Bob Anderson, chairman of the Johnson County Republican Party, who noted an uptick in Romney’s support as well. 
 
 The Tuesday evening caucuses, held in 1,774 precincts, will be in part a battle of turnout. GOP officials estimated that turnout could be as high or higher than in 2008, when a record 119,118 Iowa Republicans participated. 
 
 Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee won the 2008 caucuses with 34 percent of the vote, but Iowa strategists believe that this time, with so many candidates bunched near the top, a candidate could win with a smaller plurality. The lowest winning percentage was Robert J. Dole’s 26 percent in 1996. 
 
 “We’re expecting a good turnout,” said Brian Rosener, chairman of the Woodbury County Republican Party. He added that his office has received “a lot of calls from people who haven’t done it before asking what do I do, where do I go, how does it work, and even some Democrats calling in to say they’re switching parties.” ||||| MANCHESTER, N.H. -- Tuesday’s is the seventh New Hampshire primary I’ve covered, so I’ve learned the shortcuts through the lake region, the best diners, and the ways that voters here can confound pundits on primary day. 
 
 Here is what I am watching for Tuesday night: 
 
 What is the margin of victory? 
 
 Assuming everything goes as imagined, Mitt Romney—who served as governor of neighboring Massachusetts, has been on the ballot here before, and even owns a vacation home in the state—wins, and the question becomes: by how much? Polls during the final week show him well ahead, but with his margin eroding. If he doesn’t maintain a double-digit lead in the end, expectations could render him a weakened front-runner. 
 
 Can Jon Huntsman survive? 
 
 As Romney’s lead has eroded, Huntsman, another Mormon—with roots in Utah—has apparently earned a second look. (“We are being screwed as Americans,” he says in ads airing here in what seems like a continuous loop.) If he nudges Ron Paul aside to edge into second place, a lot of other voters could start giving him a second look as well. But that’s a big if. 
 
 Does Ron Paul have a path forward? 
 
 His solid 20-percent base of support isn’t going anywhere, and no candidate has a more passionate following than the Texas congressman. But his path forward is interesting. His campaign is planning for him to compete in primaries like South Carolina, but to emphasize caucus states. Nevada, anyone? 
 
 Was Rick Santorum’s Iowa breakthrough an anomaly? 
 
 New Hampshire voters certainly perked up when Santorum blew back into the state with a second-place Iowa finish and wind at his back. But New Hampshire is not a friendly place for social conservatives, and Santorum’s message—accusing the president of “snobbery” for favoring college education, and flatly opposing gay marriage and even contraception—guarantees he had a pretty low ceiling here. 
 
 How low will Newt go? 
 
 Newt Gingrich is still unhappy about how thoroughly he was kicked to the curb by negative advertising during the Iowa caucuses. This shows in his Web videos and the ads he can afford to pay for. Romney is his main target. But in both weekend debates, it became clear that Gingrich is conflicted. On the same day he cast himself as a Reagan conservative who knew how to work with Democrats and independents, he also castigated Romney for being a “Massachusetts moderate” lacking conservative principles. Does he really want to do Democrats’ dirty work for them? 
 
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– Tonight’s the night! At 7pm CT, Iowa Republicans will gather to cast the first votes in the Republican nominating season. Consider this your pregame report, with info from Politico, Mother Jones, and the Des Moines Register: The frontrunners: Polls show Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum are poised to grab the proverbial “three tickets out of Iowa.” Romney doesn’t need to win to remain the favorite for the nomination, but anything less than a respectable second will be damaging. Turnout is everything: If it’s high, that’s probably a good sign for Romney. If it’s low, it’s a good sign for Paul and/or Santorum—depending on where it’s concentrated. Bad weather is thought to favor Paul’s band of enthusiastic supporters. Location, location, location: Romney’s support is strongest in eastern Iowa, Santorum should fare well in the northwest, and Paul is hoping for turnout in college towns such as Ames. Politico highlights 10 counties to watch here. The battle for fourth: If either Newt Gingrich or Rick Perry can pull out a closer-than-expected fourth, they might be able to stay in the race. Last-minute campaigning: Romney held rallies in four cities yesterday, his most since 2008. Paul held forth in a hotel full of journalists in Des Moines, hoping to grab media buzz. And Santorum appeared with the cast of 19 Kids and Counting, the TLC reality show beloved by Iowa homeschoolers. Some intriguing numbers: Paul’s favorability has fallen 21 points in the past week. Only 76% of Santorum’s supporters say they’ll definitely caucus for him. Romney, meanwhile, has at some point trailed five different candidates in Iowa—and is now polling at exactly the same 18% he was at in January.