For politics fans, it’s easy to get caught up in fun Electoral College scenarios — ones in which small states make a big difference or in which the House of Representatives has to decide the election. The alternative — endlessly repeating that “Florida is important; Ohio is important” — can get tiresome. That said, Ohio is important, and Florida is super important. 
 
 Florida has a 19 percent chance of providing the decisive vote in the Electoral College according to our polls-only forecast. It’s the most likely “tipping-point state,” in FiveThirtyEight parlance. That’s up from 16 percent just two weeks ago. There’s only one other state with a better than 10 percent chance of casting the decisive electoral vote: Pennsylvania, at 12 percent. 
 
 Florida tends to be a crucial battleground state in presidential elections (more on this in a moment), but it’s become even more pivotal in recent weeks in the race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Clinton has improved her position nationally and in Florida, but she’s made a bit more progress in the Sunshine State, moving it closer to the national average. Clinton leads by about 3 percentage points nationally and by about 1 point in Florida. That’s made it more plausible that Clinton could hold onto Florida while losing some light-blue states. 
 
 Let’s say, for example, that on Election Day, Clinton underperforms with white voters without college degrees even more so than she is doing now. Her support would collapse in the Midwest, and her troubles in Maine would likely bleed over into New Hampshire. But Florida is more diverse, with one of the largest groups of Latino voters of any battleground state and a sizable African-American population. So, in this scenario, the nonwhite vote in Florida might allow Clinton to hold onto the state even if she were to lose Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio and Wisconsin. 
 
 And that’s a winning map: 
 
 If Clinton wins Florida, Michigan and New Hampshire, she can afford to lose Pennsylvania, where she’s held a lead even as she’s trailed Trump in next-door Ohio. 
 
 Indeed, winning Florida opens up so many electoral paths for Clinton that it’s probably a must-win for Trump. If he loses Florida, Trump wins the presidency only 5 percent of the time according to our polls-only forecast. (Clinton, on the other hand, wins the election 33 percent of the time without a victory in Florida.) Considering that Clinton has led in every post-debate survey in Florida and has a small lead there in our polls-only forecast, you can understand why Clinton is currently a favorite to win the election. 
 
 Florida has two basic things going for it that make it so pivotal. The first, as I mentioned, is how closely the state mirrors the national vote. It’s about 2 or 3 percentage points more Republican-leaning than the country at the moment. Nevada and Wisconsin are about as equally close to the national margin, and the only states closer are Colorado (the current tipping-point state according to our forecasts), New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. Considering that the election is a little more than a month away and the inherent error in any forecast, it’s possible that the vote margin in Florida ends up as close or closer as in these other states. 
 
 The other factor that makes Florida important is its large population. None of the states listed in the previous paragraph besides Florida has more than 20 electoral votes. Florida has 29. It’s possible, therefore, for a candidate to lose smaller swing states and make up for those losses by winning in Florida. 
 
 No single state guarantees victory. The notion of a “must-win” state tends to be overplayed — instead, the states tend to move in concert, and the winner of the national popular vote almost always wins in the Electoral College. But Florida is about as close to an all-important state as we’re likely to see. ||||| Media playback is unsupported on your device Media caption Donald Trump follows a time-honoured electoral tradition in Tampa 
 
 Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump have been campaigning in Florida, a key battleground state that could tip Tuesday's US presidential election. 
 
 Florida is the largest swing state and is seen as a must-win for Mr Trump. 
 
 The Republican candidate later flew to North Carolina and will then head west to Nevada. 
 
 Opinion polls in recent days have suggested Mr Trump is gaining support but he still remains behind Mrs Clinton in most surveys. 
 
 In Florida, the contest appears to be tight. Real Clear Politics' poll average puts the Democratic candidate ahead, but poll analysis website FiveThirtyEight says Mr Trump has a 52.6% chance of winning the state. 
 
 US President Barack Obama won Florida in 2012 by a margin of just 0.9% over Republican Mitt Romney. 
 
 Candidates need 270 electoral college votes to win the presidency. Florida is worth 29. 
 
 Some 37 million early voters have already cast their ballots. Reports suggest many more Latino voters are turning out early in key states including Florida, Arizona and Nevada compared to past elections. 
 
 Media playback is unsupported on your device Media caption Beyonce and Jay Z turn out for Hillary Clinton 
 
 Florida has a significant Latino population, including many Cubans. 
 
 Mr Trump told a rally in Tampa: "I say to the Hispanic community living in the inner city, to the African-American community, I say: what the hell do you have to lose?" 
 
 He said Cubans supported him. He said he would provide jobs and solve crime for inner-city communities. 
 
 Mrs Clinton courted voters in a Haitian-American district of Miami before holding a rally in Pembroke Pines. Her short address there ended in a downpour of rain. 
 
 She will later make an appearance in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, alongside pop star Katy Perry. 
 
 Florida's Latino vote 
 
 Image copyright Reuters Image caption Some Latinos support Trump, despite his harsh rhetoric targeting immigrants 
 
 Hispanics make up 16% of registered voters in Florida this election, the Associated Press reports, up from 13.5% in 2012. 
 
 American Hispanics mostly vote Democrat but Florida's large Cuban population - which make up 31% of the state's Hispanic vote - have traditionally voted Republican. 
 
 Donald Trump recently began to speak out against the US lifting its economic embargo on Cuba in a play for older voters, analysts say. 
 
 But they also point out that as more younger Cubans have settled in Miami, support for warming US-Cuba relations - which Mrs Clinton backs - is growing among the community. Polls now suggest that more Miami Cubans are against the embargo than for it. 
 
 Mr Trump's divisive and insulting comments about immigrants from Mexico and elsewhere have also angered many Latinos. 
 
 Both candidates held rallies in Ohio and Pennsylvania on Friday. 
 
 In Cleveland, Mrs Clinton ended the day's campaigning at a concert, where she was joined by the singer Beyonce and her husband, rapper Jay Z. 
 
 The Clinton campaign is putting on several events with high-profile figures from the entertainment world as it tries to energise young and minority voters. 
 
 Media playback is unsupported on your device Media caption Voters describe what's the worst that could happen if the other side wins. 
 
 Rocker Jon Bon Jovi will later appear with Democratic vice-presidential candidate Tim Kaine in St Petersburg, Florida. 
 
 On Friday night, Mr Trump told supporters in Hershey, Pennsylvania, that he "didn't have to bring J-Lo or Jay Z" to draw crowds. 
 
 "I am here all by myself. Just me. No guitar, no piano, no nothing," he said. 
 
 In other campaign developments: 
 
 Documents alleging to show that Mr Trump's wife, Melania, worked illegally as a model in the US for a brief period two decades ago before she obtained the legal right to work have been obtained by the Associated Press. 
 
 The National Enquirer, a US tabloid, paid $150,000 (£120,000) to a former Playboy model for exclusive rights to the story of an alleged affair she had with Donald Trump from 2006-2007, the Wall Street Journal reports. But the Enquirer, which supports Mr Trump, then killed the story, it says. The National Enquirer has denied paying to suppress the story and the Trump campaign says the alleged affair did not occur. 
 
 Democratic campaign chief John Podesta said Mr Trump should ask the governor of New Jersey, Chris Christie, to step down as the head of his transition team after two of his aides were found guilty of orchestrating traffic jams in New Jersey as an act of political retribution against a local Democratic mayor. Mr Christie has denied any involvement. 
 
 Who is ahead in the polls? See full poll tracker 
 
 Mrs Clinton has faced a torrent of negative headlines after the FBI said last week it was looking into emails that may be connected to her use of a private email server while she was secretary of state. 
 
 The Clinton camp have questioned the timing of the announcement. 
 
 Two senior Democrats have now called for an investigation into the role of former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani, a Trump surrogate, after he appeared to suggest he knew about the inquiry before it was announced. 
 
 Separately, US authorities have said they are assessing the credibility of information on a possible al-Qaeda extremist attack before election day. 
 
 New York City, Texas and Virginia were said to be possible targets but a police spokesman said the information "lacks specificity". 
 
 Officials say they regularly assess all possible threats before major events. 
 
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– Another year, another election, and Florida still continues to be one of the most influential states in the Electoral College. Political pundits have paid special attention to this swing state after its unique role in determining the winner of the 2000 election, and the story isn't any different this cycle. Polling and statistics site FiveThirtyEight—which correctly predicted the entire Electoral College map in 2012—estimates Florida is the most likely "tipping point" state for the 2016 election. Currently, Hillary Clinton holds a 1-point lead in Florida. Florida's large allotment of 29 electoral votes means Clinton could afford to lose several other states if she was able to hold on to Florida. Trump, data shows, does not have that luxury. The businessman needs Florida to put together any sort of plausible electoral win—at least according to current polls. Trump has made no secret that he doesn't trust the polls, and according to the AP, neither do his supporters. So at least in Trump-land, there may be more paths to victory that don't include Florida. But for now, experts say Trump and his campaign should be spending a lot of time down South in the sun. Read FiveThirtyEight's full post here.