Iceland Has Never Won A Winter Olympics Medal. It's Not Alone 
 
 Enlarge this image toggle caption Rob Schumacher/USA Today Sports/Reuters Rob Schumacher/USA Today Sports/Reuters 
 
 Let's acknowledge at the outset that despite its name, Iceland can be brilliantly, beautifully green. But the country lies far north of the equator, and a small part of it has an ice cap. One Icelander even made waves this week for posting a photo of herself hanging out laundry in chest-deep snow. 
 
 So it may come as a surprise to learn that while Iceland has sent 75 athletes to the Winter Olympics since 1948, it has no winter medals to show for it. Meanwhile, it has won four Summer Olympics medals. 
 
 The Olympics bring a chance to look at the world through the prism of sport. But when it comes to predicting athletic prowess, geography can be surprising. 
 
 Iceland is certainly not the only nation among the 92 competing at the Pyeongchang Olympics to have never won a winter medal. More than 50 countries that are competing at the Pyeongchang Games have never won a medal. In fact, only 44 countries have ever won a medal of any type in the Winter Olympics, compared with 147 that have won a medal at the Summer Olympics. 
 
 When it comes to winning gold, the numbers are even smaller: Just 36 countries have earned gold medals in the Winter Games versus 106 countries in the Summer Olympics. 
 
 None of this is to say that the Olympic Games are only about medals, or winning. They're also about the spirit of competition and camaraderie. 
 
 But a little hardware would also be welcome — especially for the dozens of countries that have never won a medal at all. And as the U.S. won its 100th Winter Olympics gold medal Wednesday — it went to snowboarder Shaun White — it's fitting to remember the rarity of these medals and the individuals who win them. 
 
 In fairness, six of the countries in Pyeongchang with no winter medals so far are competing for the first time. These are Ecuador (cross-country skiing), Eritrea (alpine skiing), Kosovo (alpine skiing), Malaysia (figure skating and alpine skiing), Nigeria (bobsleigh and skeleton) and Singapore (short track speedskating). 
 
 But others have been competing for decades. Argentina has a strong skiing and snowboarding scene and has sent 136 athletes to the cold-weather games over the past 90 years. Every time, they've returned empty-handed. 
 
 Other countries still awaiting their first Winter Olympics medal include: 
 
 Lithuania (first Winter Games: 1928) 
 
 Greece (1936) 
 
 Chile (1948) 
 
 Iran (1956) 
 
 You can see the full list at the Sports Reference site, run by an independent group that tracks Olympics data and statistics. 
 
 And there are other surprises once you dig into the data of Winter Olympics winners. 
 
 Denmark has earned only one winter medal (curling) — despite competing since 1948 and being located between two cold-weather sport titans, Germany and (across the North Sea) Norway. In the Summer Games, Denmark has done far better, winning 208 medals. With 17 athletes at the Pyeongchang Games, it will try to tilt that balance. 
 
 Belgium has 164 summer medals and five winter ones. The disparity is even greater for Hungary, which has won 505 medals in summer and just six in the winter. 
 
 Some of the disparity may be explained by the 28-year head start the Summer Games have on the Winter Olympics. The former started in 1896; the latter in 1924. 
 
 Also, the Winter Games are smaller: The Rio Games of 2016 had 306 medal events, for instance, while the Pyeongchang Games have 102. 
 
 But then we notice that China — which only began competing in the Winter Olympics in 1980 — already has more than twice the number of medals as Great Britain, at 53 versus 26, at the start of the Pyeongchang Games. That's with China sending 311 athletes over the years, to Britain's 642. 
 
 Again, the picture changes in the summer: In Rio 2016, China and Britain dueled for the No. 2 spot overall, with Team GB winning out. 
 
 Some countries are uniquely efficient. Leading up to Pyeongchang, Luxembourg had sent 12 athletes to the Winter Olympics; they brought home two silver medals. (This year, Luxembourg has sent just one athlete to South Korea, alpine skier Matthieu Osch). 
 
 As for Iceland, the country currently has five athletes in Pyeongchang, competing in men's and women's alpine and cross-country skiing. Their events continue through Friday. ||||| Sean McCabe 
 
 More than 1,000 years ago, the Vikings evolved into fierce, intimidating conquerors. Now the Norsemen are at it again, this time in the form of the Olympic team from tiny Norway. 
 
 This country of five million people is poised to pull off one of the great triumphs in sports by winning the overall medal race and likely the most gold medals at the Sochi Olympics. The Wall Street Journal's medal projections for Sochi suggest the Norwegians will win 33 medals, one more than a strong team from the U.S., whose population is roughly 65 times as large. The two countries should be neck and neck for the internationally coveted spot atop the gold-medal table as well. Deep teams from Canada and Germany could challenge for supremacy, too—and keep an eye on the Russians with their home-snow advantage. 
 
 Alpine skier Ted Ligety may be a long shot for a U.S. medal. AFP/Getty Images 
 
 Norway's Winter Olympics success over the years represents one of the unlikeliest feats in sports. Though it last swept the medal tables at a Winter Games in 1968, the country is the all-time leader in both gold and total Winter Olympics medals. And even though it lacks Cold War political ramifications, the "Knut vs. Goliath" battle between Norway and the U.S. in Sochi should make for one of the most entertaining Olympic medals races. 
 
 At bottom, it's a competition between two diametrically opposed approaches to success in Olympic sports. The U.S. will bring 230 athletes and challenge for medals in everything from speed and figure skating to alpine skiing and Nordic combined, an event that requires both cross-country skiing and ski jumping. Meanwhile, Norway will focus its fire almost exclusively on Nordic sports that involve some form of cross country and ski jumping. 
 
 "We concentrate where we can do well, and on what is closest to our hearts," said Gerhard Heiberg, the International Olympic Committee member who organized the 1994 Games in Lillehammer. 
 
 Dress Rehearsal 
 
 At last year's World Championships in Nordic sports, Norway won 16 gold medals and 30 overall. If it repeats that performance in Sochi, it could conceivably win both medal races without even bringing ice skates, alpine skis or a curling stone to Sochi. 
 
 Kikkan Randall in cross country is a better bet. AFP/Getty Images 
 
 The Journal's forecasting system, which has proved accurate to within a few medals in the last two Olympics, takes into account basic information such as interviews with experts and the performances of athletes in recent national and international competitions. But rather than simply anointing first-, second- and third-place finishers in each event, the model assigns probabilities to the top medal contenders, then uses those probabilities to project the most likely outcomes. 
 
 For instance, Germany's two top duos in doubles luge—Tobias Wendl/Tobias Arlt and Toni Eggert/Sascha Benecken—have won every World Cup event this season. They have finished one-two in six of eight races. Together, the two teams are a combined 80% favorite to win the gold by our count. A tandem from Austria has a 20% chance. 
 
 On the other hand, Ted Ligety, the American alpine skiing champion, performs in far more competitive events. He is the world's best technical skier, but he hasn't been on a Super G podium this season, even though he is the defending world champion in that event, so his chances of prevailing in Super G are just 25%. 
 
 To compile the figures, we enlisted sports actuary John Dewan, founder of Stats LLC, to tally the probabilities and run 1,000 simulations of the Games. 
 
 Norway won the most gold medals in 471 of these simulations, including ties, beating the U.S., which won the most golds 439 times. Germany (141), Canada (58) and Russia (48) were next. The results in the overall medal race lean significantly toward Norway, which won the most medals 549 times, compared with 369 for the U.S. 
 
 Relative long shots by comparison are Canada, with 154 simulated overall medal wins; Russia, with 32; and Germany, with 28. 
 
 A warning to Winter Olympics gamblers: Predicting outcomes of events that take place on slippery surfaces and on blades a few millimeters thick can be a fool's errand. The outcome of the medal tables could turn on a split-second brush with the wall. 
 
 Early U.S. Promise 
 
 In Vancouver in 2010, the U.S. slaughtered the competition in the overall medals race, winning 37 overall, seven more than second-place Germany. The Canadians collected a world-best 14 golds on home snow and ice after investing $100 million to improve their efforts. During the next three years, Team USA became even more formidable: It dominated world championships in alpine skiing last year, Kikkan Randall became the world's fastest freestyle Nordic skier and Tim Burke won a silver medal in the biathlon world championships. 
 
 Also working in favor of the U.S.: The IOC in 2011 added two more competitions in snowboarding and freestyle skiing, sports at which the U.S. excels. And it added women's ski jumping, an event that now has an American world champion in Sarah Hendrickson. The stage appeared set for a U.S. triumph in enemy territory. 
 
 A Rash of U.S. Injuries 
 
 Then the Americans caught the injury bug. On Aug. 23, Evan Lysacek, the defending gold medalist in figure skating, tore his hip labrum, and Hendrickson tore her ACL and MCL in a training jump. Lysacek will miss the Games. Hendrickson just got back on snow three weeks ago. Earlier last year, two-time gold medalist in snowboard cross Seth Wescott tore his ACL filming a movie in Alaska. In December skier Lindsey Vonn, the defending downhill champion and a threat to win five medals, reinjured her ACL, removing her from contention. 
 
 "You're simply not going to replace a Lindsey Vonn," says Alan Ashley, chief of Sport Performance at the U.S. Olympic Committee. Ashley says winning 37 medals again is "imaginable," but will go no further than that. 
 
 The luge pair Tobias Wendl and Tobias Arlt have been hot this season for Germany. AFP/Getty Images 
 
 Ashley is responsible for channeling the USOC's resources where the organization believes it has the best chances to excel. Since 2010, the organization has steered several million dollars from BMW toward the bobsled competition, enlisting the sponsor to design a new two-man sled for an American team that often features the sport's most gifted athletes—Olympic sprinters Lolo Jones and Lauryn Williams are on the team this year—but trails the Germans in technology. Now, American bobsledders, including Steve Holcomb, who piloted the victorious four-man crew in Vancouver, could win as many as four medals in Sochi. 
 
 The problem for Team USA is that it needs to win medals in sports that are unpredictable. Alpine skiing produced two gold medals and eight overall for the U.S. in Vancouver. Ligety and 18-year-old prodigy Mikaela Shiffrin are the best at their events, but in alpine skiing, a momentary gaffe can mean the difference between a gold medal and 12th place. 
 
 Where the Medals Are 
 
 Norway, on the other hand, specializes in cross-country skiing and biathlon, which combines cross country and sharpshooting. They are the most medal-rich sports of the games, producing 69 medals—and among the least competitive. 
 
 Throughout the 90-year history of the Winter Games, just four countries—Germany, Norway, France, and Russia and its Soviet predecessors—have won nearly three-quarters of biathlon medals. In cross-country skiing, five countries have won 82% of the medals. 
 
 Aksel Lund Svindal, who is something of an oddity as a Norwegian alpine world champion, says nearly all the best athletes in his country pursue cross-country skiing, so Norway's projected success in Sochi doesn't surprise him. "When the best talent goes into sports that the U.S. doesn't hear about and you have a good program, it makes sense." 
 
 Norway is continuing to reap the benefits of hosting the 1994 Winter Games in Lillehammer. The 20-somethings leading the Norwegian Olympic team now—cross-country stars Martin Sundby, Petter Northug and Therese Johaug—were young children then. They grew up on the new training facilities built for those Games, when the country recommitted itself to success at the Winter Olympics. 
 
 But Heiberg, the Lillehammer organizer, has a different message: Beware of the Russians. "The Russians have mobilized so much that they will be hard to beat on home ground," he says. 
 
 Indeed, U.S. medal totals jumped to 10 golds and 34 overall in Salt Lake in 2002 from six and 13 in 1998 in Nagano. Canada doubled its gold-medal haul to 14 in Vancouver from seven in Turin in 2006. The Russian team won just three gold medals and 15 overall in 2010, after which then-Russian President Dmitry Medvedev forced the head of Russia's Olympic Committee to resign as punishment for the lackluster showing. 
 
 Russian sports officials have built new ski-jumping, bobsled and curling training facilities in recent years. They recruited foreign experts and athletes to bolster the Russian national teams. Led by Viktor Ahn, a former South Korean short-track speedskating champion, the Russians last month took the 5,000-meter relay at the European championships. 
 
 The Russians will also have a huge team in Sochi, with some 225 athletes. "Even in the Soviet era, we didn't have as big a team for the Winter Olympics as we will have in Sochi," Alexander Zhukov, the Russian Olympic Committee president, said at a recent news conference. Officials have said Russia has a shot at winning medals in 11 sports, up from seven in Vancouver. 
 
 Men's hockey is the priority. In recent years Russia's top pro league has recruited the country's NHL stars, including Ilya Kovalchuk, back to the motherland to prepare for the Games. Russian President Vladimir Putin has said he would be watching closely as Alexander Ovechkin and Evgeny Malkin take on Team USA on Saturday, Feb. 15, though the Russians will likely have to beat the defending champion Canadians to win the gold medal. 
 
 Canadian Depth 
 
 As Canada proved in 2010, it isn't just about hockey (or curling) anymore. Like the American team, the Canadians are deep and well-rounded. Dominique Maltais and Maelle Ricker are dominant in snowboard cross. Patrick Chan is a favorite for figure-skating gold, and his country may win the sport's first team gold medal, a new event. 
 
 And what of Germany, the world's pre-eminent winter-sports country since unification? The Germans should clean up in luge, as usual, but they have fallen off in biathlon, which historically has been a strength. Its best biathlete, Magdalena Neuner, winner of three medals in Vancouver, two of them gold, retired in 2012 at 25, in part to pursue a fashion career. 
 
 Still Michael Vesper, Germany's chef de mission for Sochi, predicts his country will take home at least 30 medals. "We have to do better in the new sports," Vesper said recently. "In snowboarding and moguls, we didn't get any medals in Vancouver. We think we can get some this time." 
 
 Perhaps Germany might be better off sticking to what has traditionally made it so strong. That strategy seems to be working just fine for Norway. 
 
 Matthew Futterman is a senior special writer for The Wall Street Journal in New York. He can be reached at matthew.futterman@wsj.com. Paul Sonne, a Journal reporter based in Moscow, contributed to this article. Email him at paul.sonne@wsj.com.
– When you think "Winter Olympics," a country with the word "ice" as part of its name would seem to be a shoo-in for the event's medal podium. Yet Iceland, which has been competing in the winter version of the Games since 1948, has yet to take home a bronze, silver, or gold, per NPR. The site digs through stats on the Sports Reference site to see which other countries have come up short in the cold-weather competition over the years. Here, 10 nations that have been disappointed, as well as the year they started competing: Iceland (1948) Lithuania (1928) Mexico (1928) Morocco (1968) Turkey (1936)