UPDATE (Oct. 2, 5:52 p.m.): According to the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center, at 5 p.m. Friday, Hurricane Joaquin is expected to stay out to sea. 
 
 UPDATE (Oct. 1, 1:21 p.m.): Hurricane Joaquin has been upgraded to a Category 3 storm (and is expected to hit Category 4). Here’s the latest forecast: 
 
 The odds are that Hurricane Joaquin, now lingering 175 miles east-northeast of the Bahamas, will hit somewhere along the U.S. coastline some time in the next five days, but there’s no guarantee. 
 
 The path of this storm is more difficult to forecast than that of most hurricanes. The National Hurricane Center forecasts the storm to make landfall along the North Carolina coast on Sunday, but there’s a wide “cone of uncertainty” (in weather forecasting parlance) around that projection. 
 
 Why is Joaquin playing tricks with forecasters? Forecasts rely on models, and the models on this one are all over the place. The late-morning run of the Global Forecast System (GFS) model has the storm slamming into the coastline of southern North Carolina overnight Saturday and into Sunday: 
 
 The spread of the GFS ensembles (models re-run with slightly different initial conditions because we can’t measure initial conditions perfectly) include a number of scenarios where Joaquin veers out east, farther into the Atlantic Ocean, and never makes landfall. 
 
 The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (Euro), which correctly predicted Hurricane Sandy’s path, has Joaquin staying out at sea as well. 
 
 But the majority of global and hurricane models have the storm hitting the southeast U.S. coast late this weekend or early next week. 
 
 Indeed, there are good reasons to expect the storm to hit the U.S. We have high pressure blocking the storm’s path over the northwest Atlantic Ocean (see the solid red line on the map below from New York Metro Weather), according to meteorologist John Homenuk. 
 
 That high pressure could push the storm into the coast. Without it, Joaquin could “re-curve out to sea,” according to forecaster Ian Livingston of the Capital Weather Gang. He said most storms that have made it this far north have gone back out to sea rather than making landfall. 
 
 Both Homenuk and Livingston also noted an incoming area of low pressure (red arrow on the map above) coming out of the southeast U.S. that could help draw the storm into the coastline. 
 
 But here’s the problem: The hurricane models don’t necessarily have a good grip on either the “blocking” (that high pressure preventing the storm from turning back to sea) or the “trough” (the low pressure drawing the storm toward the coastline). Homenuk told me that the models can “struggle with the intricate details of this blocking.” They aren’t used to seeing high pressure this strong in the Atlantic this time of year, and minor changes in blocking can make a major difference in the track of a storm. Livingston said the models that show Joaquin coming into the coast, such as the GFS, have the storm “sufficiently captured by the incoming trough.” That means they predict that the low pressure pulling it in to shore will prevail. Model outcomes such as the Euro, on the other hand, have the storm too far south for the trough to drive it back into the coastline. 
 
 The safest bet for now is to keep an eye on the National Hurricane Center’s forecasts. ||||| NASSAU, Bahamas (AP) — Hurricane Joaquin strengthened into a Category 4 storm on Thursday as it roared through lightly populated islands of the eastern Bahamas, and forecasters said it could grow still more intense before following a path that would near the U.S. East Coast. 
 
 Clouds mark a low-pressure system moving into Somers Point, N.J., Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2015. A strengthening Hurricane Joaquin approached the central islands of the Bahamas on Wednesday evening, following... (Associated Press) 
 
 Clouds mark a low-pressure system moving into Somers Point, N.J., Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2015. A strengthening Hurricane Joaquin approached the central islands of the Bahamas on Wednesday evening, following... (Associated Press) 
 
 This NOAA satellite image taken Thursday, Oct. 1, 2015, at 12:45 AM EDT shows a cold front pushing off of the Eastern Seaboard. This cold front still lingers through the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast... (Associated Press) 
 
 There were no immediate reports of casualties as the storm reached the island chain, said Capt. Stephen Russell, the director of the Bahamas National Emergency Management Agency. 
 
 The most severe flooding reported so far was on Acklins island, where power went off overnight and phones were down. Russell said some of the roughly 565 people who live there were trapped in their homes. 
 
 Bahamas resident Shandira Forbes said she had spoken to her mother on Acklins by phone Thursday. 
 
 "She was calling for help because the sea was coming into her house," Forbes said. "People's roofs were lifting up. No one knew (about the storm), so there was no preparedness, there was no meeting, there was nothing." 
 
 Flooding also was reported across parts of Long Island, but no one had been injured, said Parliament member Loretta Butler Turner. 
 
 "We will have to wait for the winds to die down before we can go out and really assess the damage," she said. 
 
 Islands such as San Salvador, Cat Island and Rum Cay were expected to be hit hardest before the storm begins an expected shift toward the north, forecasters said. 
 
 "Everyone is just trying to get their stuff battened down," said Frances Missick, chief councilor of Rum Cay, which has a population of about 100 and 40 homes. 
 
 Missick and other people on the small island gathered in a shelter set up at the St. Christopher Anglican Church. As of Thursday, there was only minor flooding and power and water were still running. 
 
 Joaquin had maximum sustained winds of 130 mph (210 kph) and hurricane strength winds extending 45 miles (75 kilometers) from the eye, the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said. As of 2 p.m. EDT, the storm was located about 70 miles (115 kilometers) south-southeast of San Salvador island after passing over Samana Cays, Bahamas. It was moving southwest at 6 mph (9 kph). 
 
 While Samana Cays is usually uninhabited, eight to 10 people were working there, staying in temporary housing, when the storm hit, said Parliament member Alfred Gray. 
 
 "If the buildings look like they won't withstand, there are some caves on the side of the rock that they can go into because it's not prone to flooding," he said. 
 
 The storm was predicted to turn to the north and northwest toward the United States on Friday, but forecasters were still gathering data to determine how it might affect the U.S. East Coast, which was already suffering flooding and heavy rains from separate storms. 
 
 "There's still a distinct possibility that his could make landfall somewhere in the U.S.," said Dennis Feltgen, a meteorologist and hurricane center spokesman. 
 
 The Hurricane Center said parts of the Bahamas could see storm surge raising sea levels 5 to 10 feet (as much as 3 meters) above normal, with 10 to 15 inches (250 to 380 millimeters) of rain falling on the central Bahamas. 
 
 The U.S. National Hurricane Center's long-term forecast showed the storm could near the U.S. East Coast along North Carolina and Virginia on Sunday or Monday. 
 
 "Residents of the Carolinas north should be paying attention and monitoring the storm. There's no question," said Eric Blake, a hurricane specialist with the center. "If your hurricane plans got a little dusty because of the light hurricane season, now is a good time to update them." 
 
 ___ 
 
 Associated Press writers Tony Winton in Miami and Ava Turnquest in Nassau contributed to this report. ||||| Story highlights Captain: The search for a ship that lost communications near the Bahamas will resume Saturday 
 
 Hurricane Joaquin is now moving northeast at 7 mph, has 125 mph sustained winds 
 
 Hurricane Joaquin may not hit the U.S. East Coast, but heavy rain and flooding is still possible 
 
 (CNN) For more than 36 hours, there's been no word from, and no sign of, the U.S.-flagged container ship El Faro. 
 
 That means no news on what's happened to the 28 Americans and five Poles aboard, faced with the full fury of Hurricane Joaquin and its up to 150-mph gusts, 30-foot waves and potentially 25 inches of rain. 
 
 The U.S. Coast Guard dispatched a cutter ship, an MH-60 Jayhawk rescue helicopter and a C-130 Hercules airplane on Friday. But while the C-130 flew as low as 2,000 feet -- far below the normal 10,000 feet for such a storm -- it was not able to get close to the last known location off the Bahamas of El Faro, which means lighthouse in Spanish, much less spot or communicate with its occupants. 
 
 "There's so much wind, thunderstorms and sea spray that it is difficult to see," Coast Guard Capt. Mark Fedor told CNN's Eric Burnett. "But our hope is that they are either on the vessel or on life rafts, and we can identify them." 
 
 The search was resumed Saturday morning and was still underway as of Saturday afternoon. 
 
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– Hurricane Joaquin remains a Category 4 storm that's currently battering the Bahamas, but the East Coast may dodge one bullet this weekend if the storm keeps to its offshore path, Weather.com and CNN report. Tracking maps show Joaquin solidly out in the Atlantic and set to keep veering away from the coastline. Still, coastal states may not escape serious weather—though not entirely due to Joaquin. The Washington Post explains a "a predecessor surge of moisture [is] streaming up the eastern seaboard" right now; CNN reports Joaquin is funneling moisture into that weather system. The result: rain and flooding. The Post frames the latter as a "major concern," and CNN meteorologist Rachel Aissen predicts the flooding in South Carolina could be "historic." South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley has declared a state of emergency, as have the governors of North Carolina, Virginia, and New Jersey. Aissen notes that while the storm could still shift back to shore, chances are if it keeps out to sea into Friday evening, it will stay there. (Don't be a "social media-rologist" and makes these five weather-prediction mistakes mentioned by Forbes.)