DELRAY BEACH, Fla. — Mitt Romney has taken a narrow national lead, tightened the gender gap and expanded his edge over President Barack Obama on who would best grow the economy. 
 
 A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll of 1,000 likely voters — taken from Sunday through Thursday of last week — shows Romney ahead of Obama by 2 percentage points, 49 to 47 percent. That represents a 3-point swing in the GOP nominee’s direction from a week ago but is still within the margin of error. Obama led 49 percent to 48 percent the week before. 
 
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 Romney has not led in the poll since the beginning of May. 
 
 Across the 10 states identified by POLITICO as competitive, Romney leads 50 percent to 48 percent. 
 
 On the generic congressional ballot, Republicans now tie Democrats, 46 percent to 46 percent, after trailing slightly over the past six weeks. 
 
 Two weeks from Election Day, the GOP nominee also continues to maintain a potentially pivotal advantage in intensity among his supporters. Seventy-two percent of those who support Obama say they are “extremely likely” to vote, compared to 80 percent who back Romney. Among this group, Romney leads Obama by 7 points, 52 percent to 45 percent. 
 
 Women propelled Romney’s move into first place in the poll — a majority of which was conducted before the Hofstra debate. Obama’s 11-point advantage a week ago among the crucially important group dwindled to 6 points. The Democratic incumbent still leads 51 to 45 percent with women, but Romney leads by 10 points among men. 
 
 Romney also doubled the size of his advantage over Obama on which candidate would better handle the economy. This week, 51 percent of respondents picked Romney and 45 percent chose Obama, compared to 50 percent for Romney and 47 percent for Obama a week ago. The former Massachusetts governor also leads by 4 points, 50 to 46 percent, on who would create more jobs. 
 
 A majority, 53 percent, disapprove of Obama’s handling of the economy, compared to 45 percent who approve. That 8-point spread was only 3 points a week ago. 
 
 Celinda Lake, the Democratic pollster who helped conduct the poll, sees the drop in Obama’s support among women and who can best handle the economy as connected. Obama now has only a 4-point advantage among women on who is better for the economy, even though respondents give the president significantly higher marks on a host of other questions, such as who shares their values and who is fighting hardest for the middle class. 
 
 Romney, meanwhile, is again underwater with women on likability: Forty0five percent view him favorably, and 50 percent view him unfavorably. ||||| The Pew poll is devastating, just devastating. Before the debate, Obama had a 51 - 43 lead; now, Romney has a 49 - 45 lead. That's a simply unprecedented reversal for a candidate in October. Before Obama had leads on every policy issue and personal characteristic; now Romney leads in almost all of them. Obama's performance gave Romney a 12 point swing! I repeat: a 12 point swing. 
 
 Romney's favorables are above Obama's now. Yes, you read that right. Romney's favorables are higher than Obama's right now. That gender gap that was Obama's firewall? Over in one night: 
 
 Currently, women are evenly divided (47% Obama, 47% Romney). Last month, Obama led Romney by 18 points (56% to 38%) among women likely voters. 
 
 Seriously: has that kind of swing ever happened this late in a campaign? Has any candidate lost 18 points among women voters in one night ever? And we are told that when Obama left the stage that night, he was feeling good. That's terrifying. On every single issue, Obama has instantly plummeted into near-oblivion. He still has some personal advantages over Romney - even though they are all much diminished. Obama still has an edge on Medicare, scores much higher on relating to ordinary people, is ahead on foreign policy, and on being moderate, consistent and honest (only 14 percent of swing voters believe Romney is honest). But on the core issues of the economy and the deficit, Romney is now kicking the president's ass: 
 
 By a 37% to 24% margin, more swing voters say Romney would improve the job situation. Swing voters favor Romney on the deficit by a two-to-one (41% vs. 20%) margin.... Romney has gained ground on several of these measures since earlier in the campaign. Most notably, Obama and Romney now run even (44% each) in terms of which candidate is the stronger leader. Obama held a 13-point advantage on this a month ago. And Obama’s 14-point edge as the more honest and truthful candidate has narrowed to just five points. In June, Obama held a 17-point lead as the candidate voters thought was more willing to work with leaders from the other party. Today, the candidates run about even on this (45% say Obama, 42% Romney). 
 
 Lies work when they are unrebutted live on stage. And momentum counts at this point in the election. 
 
 Now look at Pew's question as to who would help the middle class the most: 
 
 Look: I'm trying to rally some morale, but I've never seen a candidate this late in the game, so far ahead, just throw in the towel in the way Obama did last week - throw away almost every single advantage he had with voters and manage to enable his opponent to seem as if he cares about the middle class as much as Obama does. How do you erase that imprinted first image from public consciousness: a president incapable of making a single argument or even a halfway decent closing statement? And after Romney's convincing Etch-A-Sketch, convincing because Obama was incapable of exposing it, Romney is now the centrist candidate, even as he is running to head up the most radical party in the modern era. 
 
 How can Obama come back? By ensuring people know that Romney was and is a shameless liar and opportunist? That doesn't work for a sitting president. He always needed a clear positive proposal - tax reform, a Grand Bargain on S-B lines - as well as a sterling defense of his admirable record. Bill Clinton did the former for him. Everyone imaginable did what they could for him. And his response? Well, let's look back a bit: 
 
 With President Obama holed up in a Nevada resort for debate practice, things can get pretty boring on the White House beat right now. Pretty boring for Obama too, apparently. "Basically they're keeping me indoors all the time," Obama told a supporter on the phone during a visit to a Las Vegas area field office. "It's a drag," he added. "They're making me do my homework." 
 
 Too arrogant to take a core campaign responsibility seriously. Too arrogant to give his supporters what they deserve. If he now came out and said he supports Simpson-Bowles in its entirety, it would look desperate, but now that Romney has junked every proposal he ever told his base, and we're in mid-October, it's Obama's only chance on the economy. 
 
 Or maybe, just maybe, Obama can regain our trust and confidence somehow in the next debate. Maybe he can begin to give us a positive vision of what he wants to do (amazing that it's October and some of us are still trying to help him, but he cannot). Maybe if Romney can turn this whole campaign around in 90 minutes, Obama can now do the same. But I doubt it. A sitting president does not recover from being obliterated on substance, style and likability in the first debate and get much of a chance to come back. He has, at a critical moment, deeply depressed his base and his supporters and independents are flocking to Romney in droves. 
 
 I've never seen a candidate self-destruct for no external reason this late in a campaign before. Gore was better in his first debate - and he threw a solid lead into the trash that night. Even Bush was better in 2004 than Obama last week. Even Reagan's meandering mess in 1984 was better - and he had approaching Alzheimer's to blame. 
 
 I'm trying to see a silver lining. But when a president self-immolates on live TV, and his opponent shines with lies and smiles, and a record number of people watch, it's hard to see how a president and his party recover. I'm not giving up. If the lies and propaganda of the last four years work even after Obama had managed to fight back solidly against them to get a clear and solid lead in critical states, then reality-based government is over in this country again. We're back to Bush-Cheney, but more extreme. We have to find a way to avoid that. Much, much more than Obama's vanity is at stake. 
 
 (Photo: Obama as he imploded, by Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg via Getty Images.)
– So much for President Obama's unassailable lead: A handful of new polls are calling a close presidential race on the eve of Obama's first debate with Mitt Romney, CNN reports. CNN's latest poll found that 50% favor Obama and 47% favor Romney, a difference within the survey's margin of error. An ABC News/Washington Post poll found 49% for Obama and 47% for Romney, and the American Research Group counted 49% for Obama and 46% for Romney. These numbers are all national, of course—not swing state. But at least nationally, there is "a strong suggestion that whatever bounce President Obama received from his convention has, as expected, faded away," says a CNN pollster. "That's why they call them 'bounces.'" Among the interesting CNN poll factoids: Romney and Obama are liked equally on the economy, Obama has a 52%-45% edge on foreign policy, women prefer Obama by 53%-44%, and Romney has a 50%-47% lead among men—but that's less than he had before the conventions.