The number of Americans seeking unemployment aid plummeted last week to seasonally adjusted 339,000, the lowest level in more than four years. The sharp drop offered a hopeful sign that the job market could pick up. 
 
 In this Friday Sept. 28, 2012, photo, a group of veterans listen during a session with one of the employers at a job fair introducing veterans to careers in the security and private investigations industry... (Associated Press) 
 
 The Labor Department said Thursday that weekly applications fell by 30,000 to the fewest since February 2008. The four-week average, a less volatile measure, dropped by 11,500 to 364,000, a six-month low. 
 
 The positive figures follow a report last week that said the unemployment rate fell in September to 7.8 percent. It was the first time since January 2009 that the rate dropped below 8 percent. 
 
 A Labor Department spokesman cautioned that the weekly applications can be volatile, particularly at the start of a quarter. And the spokesman said one large state accounted for much of the decline. The spokesman did not name the state. 
 
 Unemployment benefit applications are a proxy for layoffs. When they consistently drop below 375,000, it suggests that hiring is strong enough to lower the unemployment rate. 
 
 Some economists said they want to see more data before suggesting the job market is turning around. 
 
 "Should this level hold for another week, it would flag a meaningful improvement in October" hiring, said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, in a note to clients. 
 
 Dan Greenhaus, chief market strategist at BTIG LLC, is also reserving judgment. "Are things that much better all of a sudden? Perhaps. We're going to wait for some corroborating data." 
 
 The total number of people receiving unemployment benefits also fell, the Labor Department said. A little more than 5 million Americans received benefits in the week ending Sept. 22, the latest data available. That's down about 44,000 from the previous week. 
 
 Last week's report noted that the unemployment rate declined to 7.8 percent in September from 8.1 percent in August because a government survey of households found that 873,000 more people had jobs. It was the biggest jump in nearly 10 years, although it was largely because of an increase in part-time employment. 
 
 Still, a separate survey of businesses showed that employers added only 114,000 jobs in September. That's generally enough to keep pace with population growth but not enough to rapidly bring relief to more than 12 million who are unemployed. 
 
 Hiring over the summer was stronger than previously estimated. The economy gained an average of 146,000 jobs a month in the July-September quarter. That's more than double the monthly pace in the April-June quarter. 
 
 Another report Wednesday suggested hiring will likely remain modest. Employers posted slightly fewer open jobs in August compared with July, the Labor Department said. It was the second straight monthly drop and the fewest openings since April. 
 
 A key problem is the economy is not growing fast enough to generate much hiring. Growth slowed to a tepid annual rate of 1.3 percent in the April-June quarter, down from 2 percent in the previous quarter. Most economists see growth staying at or below 2 percent in the second half of the year. ||||| The U.S. job market strengthened in the second half of 2011, and December is expected to cap a solid finish. 
 
 Economists forecast that employers added a net 150,000 jobs last month, according to a survey by Factset. They also predict that the unemployment rate ticked up to 8.7 percent from 8.6 percent, which was the lowest rate since March 2009. 
 
 The Labor Department will issue the December jobs report at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time (1330 GMT) Friday. 
 
 The projected hiring gains would mark a six-month stretch in which the economy generated 100,000 jobs or more in each month. The last time that happened was in April 2006 _ more than a year and a half before the country plunged into the Great Recession. 
 
 President Barack Obama still could face voters in November with the highest unemployment rate of a sitting president seeking election since World War II. Unemployment was 7.8 percent when Obama took office in January 2009. 
 
 But Obama could benefit if the unemployment rate continues to dip. History suggests that presidents' re-election prospects depend less on the unemployment rate itself than on the rate's direction during the year or two before Election Day. 
 
 A more robust hiring market would coincide with other positive data that show the economy ended the year with some momentum. 
 
 Weekly applications for unemployment benefits have fallen to levels last seen more than three years ago. Holiday sales were solid. And November and December were the strongest months of 2011 for U.S. auto sales. 
 
 Many businesses say they are ready to increase hiring in early 2012 after seeing stronger consumer confidence and greater demand for their products. 
 
 Even the projected increase in the unemployment rate could be a positive sign. The rate is expected to rise as more people feel better about their chances to find employment and resume job searches. The government counts out-of-work people as unemployed only if they are looking for work. 
 
 The government uses a survey of mostly large companies and government agencies to determine how many jobs were added or lost each month. It uses a separate survey of households to determine the unemployment rate. 
 
 The household survey picks up hiring by companies of all sizes, including small businesses and companies just getting off the ground. It also includes farm workers and the self-employed, who aren't included in the survey of companies. 
 
 The household survey has shown an average of 321,000 jobs created per month since July, compared with an average of 13,000 the first seven months of the year. 
 
 When the economy is either improving or slipping into recession, many economists say, the household survey does the better job of picking up the shift because it detects small business hiring. 
 
 Economists surveyed by the Associated Press project that the economy will generate an average of 175,000 jobs per month this year. That would be a step up from average monthly gains of 130,000 last year and 78,000 in 2010. 
 
 The pickup in hiring reflects some modest improvement in the economy. Growth will likely top 3 percent at an annual rate in the final three months of this year, economists expect. That would be a sharp improvement over the 1.8 percent growth in the July-September quarter. 
 
 Even so, many economists forecast that growth could slow to roughly 2 percent this year. Europe is almost certain to fall into recession because of its financial troubles. And without more jobs and higher incomes, consumers may have to cut back on spending. That could drag on growth in 2012.
– The unemployment rate had been expected to hold steady at 8.5%, with just 125,000 jobs added—instead, unemployment fell to 8.3% and 243,000 jobs were added last month, according to January's better-than-expected jobs report. The report has Wall Street Journal bloggers particularly effusive: "America's back, baby. America's back." Stock futures are also up on the news, the Journal notes. That's the fifth consecutive month in which the unemployment rate has dropped, the AP reports. The number of jobs added is the highest in nine months, and the unemployment rate is the lowest in almost three years.