President Barack Obama will map a course for drawing down the nearly 10-year war in Afghanistan Wednesday, when he is expected to set a target of bringing home about 30,000 troops by the end of 2012. 
 
 FILE - In this June 15, 2010 file photo, President Barack Obama speaks in Pensacola, Fla. Nearing a critical benchmark in the Afghanistan war, President Barack Obama is considering both how many U.S.... (Associated Press) 
 
 The president is likely to pull out 10,000 troops by the end of this year, administration and Pentagon officials said, and aims to bring another 20,000 home by the end of next year. 
 
 But with 100,000 U.S. troops currently in Afghanistan, that drawdown may not be substantial enough to satisfy some lawmakers on Capitol Hill and a war-weary public. 
 
 The initial withdrawal is expected to happen in two phases, with 5,000 troops coming home this summer and an additional 5,000 by the end of the year, a senior U.S. defense official said. 
 
 The pace of bringing home the other 20,000 forces was unclear heading into Obama's primetime address to the nation Wednesday. The White House opted not to give the president's speech the weight of an Oval Office address. Instead, Obama was to speak for about 10 to 15 minutes from the East Room of the White House. 
 
 Obama's expected blueprint focuses on the 30,000 surge forces he ordered to Afghanistan as part of his 2009 decision to send reinforcements to reverse the Taliban's battlefield momentum. 
 
 The president reached his decision a week after receiving a range of options from Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. and NATO commander in Afghanistan. Obama informed his senior national security advisers, including outgoing Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, of his plans during a White House meeting Tuesday. 
 
 "The president is commander in chief," spokesman Jay Carney said. "He is in charge of this process, and he makes the decision." 
 
 The administration has begun briefing NATO allies on its plans. British Prime Minister David Cameron's office confirmed that officials there have been informed but declined to offer comment, or to make any immediate statement on the plans for about 9,500 British forces in Afghanistan. 
 
 The withdrawals would put the U.S. on a path toward giving Afghans control of their security by 2014 and ultimately shifting the U.S. military from a combat role to a mission focused on training and supporting Afghan forces. 
 
 The Obama administration has said its goal in continuing the Afghanistan war is to blunt the Taliban insurgency and dismantle and defeat al-Qaida, the terror network that used the country as a training ground for the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the U.S. As of Tuesday, at least 1,522 members of the U.S. military had died in Afghanistan as a result of the U.S. invasion of Afghanistan in late 2001, according to an Associated Press count. 
 
 The U.S. and its allies have set Dec. 31, 2014, as a target date for ending the combat mission in Afghanistan. 
 
 A reduction this year totaling 10,000 troops would be the rough equivalent of two brigades, which are the main building blocks of an Army division. It's not clear whether Obama's decision would require the Pentagon to pull out two full brigades or, instead, withdraw a collection of smaller combat and support units with an equivalent number of troops. 
 
 If Obama were to leave the bulk of the 30,000 surge contingent in Afghanistan through 2012, he would be giving the military another fighting season _ in addition to the one now under way _ to further damage Taliban forces before a larger withdrawal got started. It also would buy more time for the Afghan army and police to grow in numbers and capability. 
 
 Under that scenario, the emphasis in U.S.-led military operations is likely to shift away from troop-intensive counterinsurgency operations toward more narrowly focused counterterrorism operations, which focus on capturing and killing insurgents. 
 
 Afghan security forces and judicial institutions are expected to take up many aspects of the counterinsurgency fight by establishing the rule of law and respect for government institutions, U.S. officials in Afghanistan said Tuesday. 
 
 In recent speeches, Afghan President Hamid Karzai has criticized American forces, suggesting his ally is in danger of becoming an occupying force. He has even threatened action against international forces that conduct airstrikes and has accused allies of undermining and corrupting his government. 
 
 Yet there are concerns in his country about the withdrawals. Some of the areas slated to transition to Afghan control have been struck by attacks in recent weeks despite assertions by Karzai that peace talks have started between the U.S., his Afghan government and Taliban emissaries. Publicly, the Taliban say there will be no negotiations until foreign troops leave Afghanistan. 
 
 The transition to full Afghan control will begin in earnest on July 20 in five provincial capital cities and two provinces. The provincial capitals identified for transition are Lashkar Gah in Helmand province, plus capitals from provinces in the west, east and north and most of Kabul, the nation's capital. The largely peaceful northern provinces of Bamyan and Panjshir will also start to transition to Afghan control. 
 
 Some U.S. military commanders have favored a more gradual reduction in troops than Obama is expected to announce Wednesday night, arguing that too fast a withdrawal could undermine the fragile security gains. 
 
 But other advisers have backed a more significant withdrawal that starts in July and proceeds steadily through the following months. That camp believes the slow yet steady improvements in security, combined with the killing of Osama bin Laden and U.S. success in dismantling much of the al-Qaida network in the country, give the president an opportunity to make larger reductions this year. 
 
 Obama previously has said he favors a "significant" withdrawal beginning in July, his self-imposed deadline for starting to bring U.S. troops home. Aides, however, have never quantified that statement. 
 
 Pressure for a substantial withdrawal has been mounting from the public and Congress. Even Gates, who has said he favored a "modest" withdrawal, said Tuesday that Obama's decision needed to incorporate domestic concerns about the war. 
 
 "It goes without saying that there are a lot of reservations in the Congress about the war in Afghanistan and our level of commitment," Gates said during a news conference at the State Department. "There are concerns among the American people who are tired of a decade of war." 
 
 According to an Associated Press-GfK poll last month, 80 percent of Americans say they approve of Obama's decision to begin withdrawal of combat troops in July and end U.S. combat operations in Afghanistan by 2014. Just 15 percent disapprove. 
 
 On Capitol Hill, even the more moderate or conservative members of his party, such as Sen. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania and Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, are pressing for significant cuts and a shift in mission. 
 
 "The question the president faces _ we all face _ is quite simple: Will we choose to rebuild America or Afghanistan? In light of our nation's fiscal peril, we cannot do both," Manchin said Tuesday. 
 
 Sen. Carl Levin, D-Mich., chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said improved conditions in Afghanistan would permit Obama to withdraw at least 15,000 troops by the end of the year. 
 
 Obama aides have sidestepped questions about what role the cost of the war in Afghanistan played in Obama's decision, saying only that the president was focused on meeting the goal of transferring security by 2014. 
 
 Following the announcement on the drawdown, Obama will visit troops Thursday at Fort Drum, the upstate New York Army post that is home to the 10th Mountain Division, one of the most frequently deployed divisions to Afghanistan. 
 
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 Associated Press writers Lolita C. Baldor, Matthew Lee and Donna Cassata in Washington and Solomon Moore in Kabul, Afghanistan, contributed to this report. 
 
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 Robert Burns can be reached at http://twitter.com/roburtburnsAP. Julie Pace can be reached at http://twitter.com/jpaceDC. ||||| President Barack Obama will announce the critical next steps in America's decade-long war in Afghanistan on Wednesday, outlining both a plan to start bringing thousands of U.S. troops home next month and a broader withdrawal blueprint aimed at giving Afghans control of their own security in 2014. 
 
 FILE - In this June 15, 2011 file photo, President Barack Obama speaks in Pensacola, Fla. Nearing a critical benchmark in the Afghanistan war, President Barack Obama is considering both how many U.S.... (Associated Press) 
 
 White House Press Secretary Jay Carney speaks during his daily news briefing at the White House in Washington, Monday, June, 20, 2011. (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Monsivais) (Associated Press) 
 
 But even as Obama finalizes those plans, there are divisions in his administration, with military leaders favoring only a gradual reduction in troops but other advisers advocating a significant decrease in the coming months. 
 
 Administration officials say Obama is still working through the details on how many troops will start leaving Afghanistan in July, his self-imposed deadline for beginning the drawdown. He is considering a range of options presented to him last week by Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. and NATO commander in Afghanistan. 
 
 "He's finalizing his decision. He's reviewing his options," White House spokesman Jay Carney said Monday. 
 
 Obama is expected to make Wednesday's announcement in Washington. On Thursday, he will visit troops at Fort Drum, the upstate New York military base that is home to the 10th Mountain Division, one of the most frequently deployed divisions to Afghanistan and Iraq. 
 
 While much of the attention is focused on how many troops will leave Afghanistan next month, the more telling aspects of Obama's decision center on what happens after July, particularly how long the president plans to keep the 30,000 surge forces he sent in 2009 in the country. 
 
 There is a growing belief that the president must at least map out the initial withdrawal of the surge troops when he addresses the public. But whether those forces should come out over the next eight to 12 months or slowly trickle out over a longer time is hotly debated. 
 
 Military commanders want to keep as many of those forces in Afghanistan for as long as possible, arguing that too fast a withdrawal could undermine the fragile security gains in the fight against the Taliban insurgency in Afghanistan, the al-Qaida training ground for the Sept. 11 attacks. There are also concerns about pulling out a substantial number of U.S. forces as the heightened summer fighting season gets under way. 
 
 Retiring Defense Secretary Robert Gates has said he believes the initial drawdown should be "modest". 
 
 But other advisers are backing a more significant withdrawal that starts in July and proceeds steadily through the following months. That camp believes the slow, yet steady, security gains in Afghanistan, combined with the death of Osama bin Laden and U.S. success in dismantling much of the al-Qaida network in the country give the president an opportunity to make larger reductions this year. 
 
 There is also growing political pressure on Capitol Hill for a more significant withdrawal. Twenty-seven senators, Democrats as well as Republicans, sent Obama a letter last week pressing for a shift in Afghanistan strategy and major troop cuts. 
 
 "Given our successes, it is the right moment to initiate a sizable and sustained reduction in forces, with the goal of steadily redeploying all regular combat troops," the senators wrote. "The costs of prolonging the war far outweigh the benefits." 
 
 There is broad public support for starting to withdraw U.S. troops. According to an Associated Press-GfK poll last month, 80 percent of Americans say they approve of Obama's decision to begin withdrawal of combat troops in July and end U.S. combat operations in Afghanistan by 2014. Just 15 percent disapprove. 
 
 Obama has tripled the number of U.S. forces in Afghanistan since taking office, bringing the total there to about 100,000. The 30,000 troop surge he announced at the end of 2009 came with the condition that he would start bringing forces home in July 2011. 
 
 The president took months to settle on the surge strategy. This time around, aides say the process is far less formal and Obama is far more knowledgeable about the situation in Afghanistan than he was in 2009, his first year in office. 
 
 Obama has said the July withdrawal will be "significant," though aides haven't quantified that. They do say Obama sees the initial drawdown in July as part of a larger strategy aimed at ending the U.S. combat mission in Afghanistan by the end of 2014 and turning security responsibility over to the Afghans. 
 
 On a trip to Afghanistan earlier this month, Gates advocated for a comprehensive decision from the president. 
 
 "I think to make a decision on July in complete isolation from anything else has no strategic meaning," Gates said. "And so part of that has to be kind of, what's the book end? Where are we headed? What's the ramp look like?" 
 
 Gates is retiring from the Pentagon June 30. 
 
 There are also indications that the administration, having learned from the U.S. experience in Iraq, will set deadline dates for the drawdown as it progresses, in order to keep pressure on the Afghans and give Congress mileposts. 
 
 With Iraq as a blueprint, commanders will need time to figure out what they call "battlefield geometry" _ what types of troops are needed where. Those could include trainers, intelligence officers, special operations forces, various support units _ from medical and construction to air transport _ as well as combat troops. 
 
 Much of that will depend on where the Afghan security forces are able to take the lead, as well as the state of the insurgency. Part of the debate will also require commanders to determine the appropriate ratio of trainers versus combat troops. 
 
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 Associated Press writers Lolita C. Baldor and Robert Burns contributed to this report. 
 
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 Julie Pace can be reached at http://twitter/jpaceDC ||||| WASHINGTON — The Obama administration plans to slash U.S. forces in Afghanistan by more than half during the next 16 months, a faster withdrawal than top commanders once considered prudent, officials said. 
 
 Gen. John R. Allen, who commands the international forces in Afghanistan, had wanted to keep the bulk of the 66,000 U.S. troops in place through the summer, traditionally the heaviest months of fighting against Taliban insurgents. 
 
 But in recent weeks Allen's advisors and top Obama administration officials have developed a timetable for steady reductions that would reduce troop levels to fewer than 66,000 this summer and to 25,000-30,000 in spring 2014, with further withdrawals later that year, the officials said. 
 
 The emerging consensus has narrowed the split between the Pentagon and the White House over the extent to which the U.S. needs to remain engaged militarily in Afghanistan to prevent the country from slipping back into lawlessness and civil war after the bulk of foreign troops withdraw. 
 
 The administration is still discussing the size of the American force that will remain in Afghanistan after 2014, talks that will intensify this week when Afghan President Hamid Karzai meets President Obama at the White House. Pentagon officials are pushing for 6,000 to 9,000 troops, though White House aides are considering a force of 3,000 or even fewer. 
 
 The plan to accelerate the pace of the U.S. drawdown has emerged as military planners have examined the cost and logistical complexity of waiting until next year to bring out tens of thousands of troops, the officials said. 
 
 Keeping troop levels near 60,000 would require the Pentagon to extend deployments of troops currently on nine-month deployments or to send additional units for short tours, officials said, noting that neither option is likely to be popular with the public or the White House. 
 
 Deputy national security advisor Ben Rhodes told reporters Tuesday that Obama "is committed to continuing steady reductions," and that "we are not going to plateau at" 66,000 until 2014 "and then remove our troops." 
 
 At the same time, U.S. officials want to keep as many as 30,000 troops in Afghanistan through April 2014, when the nation is scheduled to hold elections to choose Karzai's successor. That size force is considered large enough to serve as a deterrent to efforts by the Taliban to disrupt the elections or by presidential contenders to seize power by force, officials said. 
 
 Many senior military officers remain deeply concerned that the post-2014 U.S. troop presence under consideration is too small to meaningfully assist the fledgling Afghan security forces. But these officers acknowledge that they are unlikely to win the argument with a White House that is intent on reducing the U.S. footprint as much as possible. 
 
 Rhodes did not rule out the possibility that Obama could eventually decide to leave no U.S. troops in Afghanistan after 2014. The "zero option" would be considered, he said. 
 
 Whether or not troops remain, the U.S. will help Afghanistan with training, equipment and aid, Rhodes said. 
 
 Earlier concern among senior U.S. commanders that a rapid U.S. withdrawal could jeopardize security has eased as many Afghan army and police units have successfully taken over security responsibilities in some areas. 
 
 "That's a surprising fact, so with that variable in play you have more room to maneuver," said a U.S. official, who requested anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. 
 
 The Obama administration is also making a renewed push for peace talks with some factions of the Taliban, in hope that reducing the strength of the insurgency will make it easier for Afghan security forces, which now number nearly 352,000, to handle security with limited U.S. backing. 
 
 "We believe ultimately that [negotiating ] is an essential part of a process that would lead to a more peaceful and stable Afghanistan," White House spokesman Jay Carney told reporters. 
 
 david.cloud@latimes.com 
 
 Times staff writer Christi Parsons contributed to this report.
– A few hours ahead of President Obama's prime-time address on Afghanistan, administration officials are leaking some main points to the AP, Washington Post, and the New York Times: Obama will bring home 10,000 troops this year and another 20,000 or so by the end of next summer. Those combined withdrawals will effectively mean the return home of all the "surge" troops Obama sent to Afghanistan in 2009. Another 70,000 US troops would remain in the country heading into 2013. The timeline does not please Gen. David Petraeus, who wants the surge troops to remain through the end of 2012—long enough for another season of fighting. (The Times says Petraeus did not endorse the decision, though Robert Gates and Hillary Clinton did with reluctance.) Though generals think it's too much, too fast, Obama will likely face criticism from the growing number of critics who say the US should bring home more troops even quicker. The president gives his 10-minute address at 8pm ET.