Donald Trump has stepped up his argument that the presidential election will be rigged in favour of Hillary Clinton, claiming that the only way he can lose Pennsylvania is “if cheating goes on”. 
 
 Whereas Trump regularly cited opinion polls when he was winning the Republican primaries, his poor showing in recent national surveys has left him sowing doubt about the integrity of the process, even before a vote is cast. 
 
 If Donald Trump loses, will the Republican party sink with him? Read more 
 
 Speaking at a rally in Altoona, Pennsylvania, on Friday evening, the celebrity tycoon said: “We’re gonna watch Pennsylvania. Go down to certain areas and watch and study and make sure other people don’t come in and vote five times. The only way we can lose, in my opinion – and I really mean this, Pennsylvania – is if cheating goes on. I really believe it.” 
 
 Trump went on: “I looked over Pennsylvania and I’m studying it. And we have some great people here. Some great leaders here of the Republican Party, and they’re very concerned about that, and that’s the way we can lose the state, and we have to call up law enforcement, and we have to have the sheriffs and the police chiefs and everybody watching. 
 
 “Because if we get cheated out of this election, if we get cheated out of a win in Pennsylvania, which is such a vital state, especially when I know what’s happening here, folks. I know. She can’t beat what’s happening here.” 
 
 In 2014, a Pennsylvania judge struck down a law requiring people to produce state-approved photo ID in order to vote. The last Republican presidential candidate to win the state was George H W Bush in 1988, but Trump hopes to defeat Clinton because of its significant blue collar population. 
 
 The Republican nominee added: “The only way they can beat it in my opinion – and I mean this 100% – if in certain sections of the state they cheat, OK? So I hope you people can sort of not just vote on the 8th, go around and look and watch other polling places and make sure that it’s 100% fine, because without voter identification – which is shocking, shocking that you don’t have it.” 
 
 Trump is trailing by 52% to 42% in Pennsylvania, according to a Quinnipiac survey of likely voters published on Tuesday. Is it one of several battleground states where he has fallen behind since the party conventions and a string of PR disasters. 
 
 As his chances of winning the White House appear to recede, Trump has increasingly gone on the offensive against perceived bias in the electoral system in a way no other candidate has in recent times. Earlier this month he told Fox News: “You don’t have to have voter ID to now go in and vote, and it’s a little bit scary, and I’ve heard a lot of bad things. I mean, people are going to walk in, they are going to vote 10 times maybe.” 
 
 He told the Washington Post: “If the election is rigged, I would not be surprised.” And last week, campaigning in Ohio, he said he’s “afraid the election is going to be rigged”, without offering evidence. 
 
 Several Trump supporters interviewed by the Guardian at a rally in Kissimmee, Florida, on Thursday night expressed the view that defeat, if it happens, will be explicable only in terms of irregularities. 
 
 Facebook Twitter Pinterest Donald Trump visits McLanahan Corporation headquarters in Hollidaysburg, Pennsylvania. Photograph: Eric Thayer/Reuters 
 
 Studies have shown only a minuscule fraction of voter fraud cases in recent years. Barack Obama has condemned Trump’s claims. “Of course the elections will not be rigged,” he told reporters recently. “What does that mean? The federal government doesn’t run the election process. States and cities and communities all across the country, they are the ones who set up the voting systems and the voting booths. 
 
 “And if Mr Trump is suggesting that there is a conspiracy theory that is being propagated across the country, including in places like Texas, where typically it’s not Democrats who are in charge of voting booths, that’s ridiculous. That doesn’t make any sense. And I don’t think anybody would take that seriously. 
 
 The president added: “This will be an election like every other election. And I think all of us at some points in our lives have played sports or maybe just played in a schoolyard or a sandbox. And sometimes folks, if they lose, they start complaining that they got cheated. But I’ve never heard of somebody complaining about being cheated before the game was over, or before the score is even tallied. So my suggestion would be go out there and try to win the election. 
 
 “If Mr Trump is up 10 or 15 points on Election Day and ends up losing, then maybe he can raise some questions. That doesn’t seem to be the case at the moment.” 
 
 During the rally in Altoona, Trump also claimed that the National Security Agency has Clinton’s missing emails and called on the agency to release them publicly. He was joined in Pennsylvania on Friday by Republican national committee chairman Reince Priebus amid speculation of friction between the camps. 
 
 Meanwhile Clinton’s husband Bill was campaigning in Las Vegas, Nevada. Addressing a forum of Asian American voters, the former president framed the election as a choice not simply of policy but of America’s identity as a nation of immigrants. 
 
 Looking around the room at the thousands who packed an auditorium at the Caesars Palace casino hotel, just down the Las Vegas strip from Trump’s eponymous tower, Clinton said “the metaphor of this election may be walls or bridges.” 
 
 “Are we stronger together or stronger apart?” he asked the crowd, comprising mostly of voters representing the nation’s fastest-growing racial group. “You remind people that e pluribus unum -- out of many, one -- is not just a slogan, it’s a way of life. 
 
 “You remind people that the eternal effort of making our union more perfect means expanding our definition of us and shrinking our definition of them, not the other way around.” ||||| HARRISBURG, Pa. — A Green Party-backed campaign changed its strategy to force a statewide recount of Pennsylvania's Nov. 8 presidential election, won by Republican Donald Trump, and said late Saturday night that it will seek help in the federal courts, rather than the state courts. 
 
 The announcement that it would seek an emergency federal court order on Monday for a recount came hours after it dropped a case in the state courts. 
 
 "Make no mistake — the Stein campaign will continue to fight for a statewide recount in Pennsylvania," recount campaign lawyer Jonathan Abady said in a statement issued around 11:30 p.m. "We are committed to this fight to protect the civil and voting rights of all Americans." 
 
 In the statement, Abady said barriers to a recount in Pennsylvania are pervasive and the state court system is ill-equipped to address the problem. 
 
 Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein has framed the campaign as an effort to explore whether voting machines and systems had been hacked and the election result manipulated. Stein's lawyers, however, had offered no evidence of hacking in Pennsylvania's election, and the state Republican Party and Trump had asked the court to dismiss the state court case. 
 
 The decision came two days before a state court hearing was scheduled in the case. Saturday's court filing to withdraw the case said the Green Party-backed voters who filed it "are regular citizens of ordinary means" and cannot afford the $1 million bond ordered by the court by 5 p.m. Monday. Green Party-backed efforts to force recounts and analyze election software in scattered precincts were continuing. 
 
 The case in Pennsylvania court has been part of an effort spearheaded by Stein to force recounts in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, three states with a history of backing Democrats for president that were narrowly and unexpectedly won by Trump over Democrat Hillary Clinton. 
 
 A recount began Thursday in Wisconsin, while a recount could begin next week in Michigan. Trump's victory in Pennsylvania was particularly stunning: the state's fifth-most electoral votes are a key stepping stone to the White House, and no Republican presidential candidate had captured the state since 1988. 
 
 Stein had said the purpose of Pennsylvania's recount was to ensure "our votes are safe and secure," considering hackers' probing of election targets in other states and hackers' accessing of the emails of the Democratic National Committee and several Clinton staffers. U.S. security officials have said they believe Russian hackers orchestrated the email hacks, something Russia has denied. 
 
 They have sought unsuccessfully in recent days to get various counties to allow a forensic examination of their election system software. 
 
 Lawyers for Trump and the state Republican Party argued there was no evidence, or even an allegation, that tampering with Pennsylvania's voting systems had occurred. Further, Pennsylvania law does not allow a court-ordered recount, they argued, and a lawyer for the Green Party had acknowledged that the effort was without precedent in Pennsylvania. 
 
 The case also had threatened Pennsylvania's ability to certify its presidential electors by the Dec. 13 federal deadline, Republican lawyers argued. 
 
 On Saturday, a GOP lawyer, Lawrence Tabas, said the case had been meant "solely for purposes to delay the Electoral College vote in Pennsylvania for President-Elect Trump." 
 
 The state's top elections official, Secretary of State Pedro Cortes, a Democrat, has said there was no evidence of any sort of cyberattacks or irregularities in the election. Any recount would change few votes, Cortes predicted. 
 
 As of Friday, Trump's margin of victory in Pennsylvania was 49,000, or less than 1 percent, out of 6 million votes cast, according to state election officials. Final counts were outstanding in some counties, including heavily populated Allegheny County, but state and county officials did not expect any outstanding uncounted votes to change the outcome of the presidential election in Pennsylvania. 
 
 Pennsylvania's automatic statewide recount trigger is 0.5 percent. Stein drew less than 1 percent of the votes cast. ||||| “Undecided voters still have a long way to go before they vote for Trump,” said Frank Luntz, a Republican strategist who holds focus groups with voters. “He has high unfavorable ratings with so many voters that he would need to win most of the rest of the electorate, and his post-convention problems aren’t helping him grow.” 
 
 Mr. Trump’s troubles are perhaps most pronounced in Pennsylvania, which he has targeted for victory in November even though the state has gone Democratic in the last six presidential elections. He is running strong in the traditionally conservative western part of the state, and his advisers argue that his populist views on trade, immigration and foreign policy could resonate with independents and blue-collar Democrats. 
 
 “We have to win Pennsylvania,” Mr. Trump said on Friday during a campaign rally in Erie. “We win Pennsylvania, we’re going to win it,” apparently a reference to the presidency. 
 
 But to carry the state, pollsters say, Mr. Trump would need to beat Mrs. Clinton here in the Philadelphia suburbs, where President Obama defeated Mitt Romney in 2012 by about nine percentage points. (Mr. Obama carried the state by about five points.) Yet Mrs. Clinton holds a wide lead in those suburbs, 52 percent to 26 percent, according to an NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist College poll published Wednesday. 
 
 “There is absolutely no way Trump wins Pennsylvania unless he can broaden his appeal significantly and overcome his huge deficit in the suburbs,” said G. Terry Madonna, director of the Franklin & Marshall College poll and a longtime analyst of Pennsylvania politics. “He does well with white working-class voters, but there simply aren’t enough of them in Pennsylvania to win. And he can’t stick with his political message for more than five minutes.” 
 
 Mr. Trump’s advisers expressed confidence in their strategy and questioned whether public polls fully reflect his support. While some did express concern that there could be a ceiling on his support among women and members of minority groups, they also said he had room to grow among first-time voters, white men and independents — who, they said, will not pay attention to the race until the presidential debates begin in late September. 
 
 Paul Manafort, Mr. Trump’s campaign chairman, said the debates would be critical to winning over voters, but he also pointed to increased spending by the Clinton campaign on television ads in Pennsylvania and Ohio as proof of the threat Mr. Trump poses there. 
 
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 “We expect to do very well in the suburbs, which will help us to carry Pennsylvania,” Mr. Manafort said. “The demographics are very positive for Donald Trump and the issue agenda favors Donald Trump in Pennsylvania.” 
 
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 A Clinton campaign spokesman did not respond to a request for comment, but several of Mrs. Clinton’s advisers and allies said they were highly optimistic that she would carry Pennsylvania and most other Rust Belt states. 
 
 There are few greater threats to candidates than a ceiling on their support, which is why many take more moderate positions during the general election in hopes of appealing to the broadest possible constituency. Republicans and Democrats have a history of nominating presidential candidates genial and ideologically flexible enough to expand their support beyond party loyalists. 
 
 Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton have historically high unfavorability ratings and extremely low favorability ratings among undecided voters. Yet since the conventions, Mrs. Clinton has focused her message and campaign schedule on undecided voters in swing states. Mr. Trump has shown little interest in changing his unorthodox approach: In an interview on CNBC on Thursday he said he would “just keep doing the same thing I’m doing right now,” even if he ended up losing. 
 
 Many Republican-leaning voters here in Bucks County said in interviews that Mr. Trump seemed almost to be willfully trying to alienate them: He says the right things about repealing the Affordable Care Act and cutting taxes, but then appears to revel in insulting women and Mexicans and singling out Muslims for harsh treatment. Several voters also cited Mr. Trump’s mocking of a disabled reporter, and others said that he seemed too hotheaded in confrontational situations, such as when he came under criticism from Khizr Khan, the father of the United States Army officer killed in Iraq, during his speech at the Democratic convention. 
 
 “America’s role in the world matters to me, and I don’t want a president who yells at other people,” said Adam Woldow, a dermatologist in Richboro, Pa., who said he voted for Mr. Romney in 2012 and John McCain in 2008. 
 
 As he waited for his station wagon to emerge from a carwash, Dr. Woldow paused to consider why Mr. Trump bothered him so much. “He just has so much baggage at this point, all the things he keeps saying,” he said. “I feel he’s even a bit racist.” Dr. Woldow said he was leaning toward Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate. 
 
 Penny Clendaniel-Bullaro, an independent from Morrisville, Pa., who also voted for Mr. Romney, said she was dismayed when Mr. Trump insinuated that Mr. Khan’s wife, Ghazala, had not been “allowed” to speak when she appeared alongside him at the convention. 
 
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 “Who is Trump to make these judgments? Trump speaks all the time with his own wife by his side, silent,” Ms. Clendaniel-Bullaro said while perusing the lunch menu at a diner in Doylestown. “He should be talking about issues if he wants to actually win people over.” 
 
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 But Mariann Davies, a lawyer in Doylestown who supports Mr. Trump, predicted that his popularity would grow among voters who do not want Mrs. Clinton to continue the Obama administration’s policies. 
 
 “He’s talking about the issues everyone is pussyfooting around,” Ms. Davies said of Mr. Trump. “I think he could attract more voters if he would just focus on trade policy and jobs because people around here care a lot about those things.” 
 
 For most politicians, a call-it-as-you-see-it approach has limits: Candidates who offend too many voters, or look overly impulsive or intemperate, generally lose. But Mr. Trump believes that voters who have seen hard times in their communities will embrace him as a truth teller. 
 
 In the blue-collar cities of northeast Pennsylvania, a traditionally Democratic area where Mr. Trump would need to overperform, several voters said they were skeptical of his leadership skills even though they shared his concerns about immigration and national security. 
 
 Ody Draklellis, a Republican who owns the Queen City Diner in Allentown, said people in the area were open to Mr. Trump because they mistrusted Mrs. Clinton and were tired of Mr. Obama’s policies. But Mr. Trump’s main problem, Mr. Draklellis added, “is Mr. Trump himself.” 
 
 “Could Trump be a good president? Probably. But he might get us into a war, so the risk is too high,” said Mr. Draklellis, who has not chosen a candidate. “You would think he’d be totally focused on all of Hillary’s vulnerabilities. He could grow in the polls that way. Instead he just shoots his mouth off.” ||||| Donald Trump (AP Photo/Evan Vucci) 
 
 Update: This article originally ran when Donald Trump made comments about voter fraud in Pennsylvania in August. On a Saturday night rally in the state, he repeated the claim, so we're republishing it with some updated numbers. 
 
 Donald Trump held a rally in Altoona, Pa., on Friday night, during which he told the audience that the only way Hillary Clinton could win the state was if "in certain sections of the state they cheat." 
 
 CBS's Sopan Deb transcribed Trump's comments. 
 
 We're gonna watch Pennsylvania. Go down to certain areas and watch and study and make sure other people don't come in and vote five times. ... The only way we can lose, in my opinion -- and I really mean this, Pennsylvania -- is if cheating goes on. I really believe it. Because I looked at Erie and it was the same thing as this. ... [L]et me just tell you, I looked over Pennsylvania. And I'm studying it. And we have some great people here. Some great leaders here of the Republican Party, and they're very concerned about that. And that's the way we can lose the state. And we have to call up law enforcement. And we have to have the sheriffs and the police chiefs and everybody watching. Because if we get cheated out of this election, if we get cheated out of a win in Pennsylvania, which is such a vital state, especially when I know what's happening here, folks. I know. She can't beat what's happening here. The only way they can beat it in my opinion -- and I mean this 100 percent -- if in certain sections of the state they cheat, OK? So I hope you people can sort of not just vote on the 8th, go around and look and watch other polling places and make sure that it's 100 percent fine, because without voter identification -- which is shocking, shocking that you don't have it. 
 
 There is almost no actual in-person voter fraud. In a survey of 1 billion ballots cast between 2000 and 2014, 241 possible -- possible! -- fraudulent ballots were found. Several of those ballots were cast in elections in Pennsylvania where a man named "Joseph Cheeseboro" and another named "Joseph J. Cheeseborough" each cast a ballot. That's all that was uncovered in Pennsylvania. 
 
 The "certain sections of the state" to which Trump is referring is almost certainly are a reference to a long-standing conspiracy theory involving the results in Philadelphia in 2012, where, in some places Mitt Romney got zero votes. Trump ally Sean Hannity raised it during a dispute with CNN's Brian Stelter. 
 
 Calling us unpatriotic? 59 districts not one Romney vote. So you are voting for the liar HRC. Did DNC hurt Bernie? https://t.co/Wuf5Sv9nCR — Sean Hannity (@seanhannity) August 7, 2016 
 
 The Philadelphia Inquirer wrote about the absence of Romney votes after the election, but included a key phrase: "The unanimous support for [President] Obama in these Philadelphia neighborhoods -- clustered in almost exclusively black sections of West and North Philadelphia -- fertilizes fears of fraud, despite little hard evidence." Little hard evidence -- and the voting was clustered in areas with a high percentage of black voters. Obama won 93 percent of the black vote in 2012. 
 
 But you don't have to take my word for it. An inspector of elections in Philadelphia, Ryan Godfrey, replied to Hannity on Twitter. Some excerpts: 
 
 1. I'm an inspector of elections for a Philly voting division. Independent but was a Republican as recently as June. https://t.co/pd82mOkEKh — Ryan Godfrey (@rgodfrey) August 7, 2016 
 
 Claim that 59 divisions in Philadelphia engaged in electoral fraud in 2012 because no votes for Romney is absurd & personally insulting. First, there's absolutely no way to erase votes from the machines we use in this city. ... Next, we get a paper tally at the end of the night that we match against physical count of voters who used machines (like an odometer). We match that against the count of the individual names of voters who have signed our rolls (and whose names we also recorded in books). ... So, # of votes corresponds with # of voters, & can't be tampered with after fact, but what about having machines change R votes to D? ... Why would they ever change *ALL* R votes to D votes, when anybody who voted R could easily refute the results just by saying they had? 
 
 He continues -- but that last point is key, and he reiterates it: 
 
 18. The Philadelphia Inquirer couldn't find anyone who cast a vote for Romney. Anyone. https://t.co/5hmtwwP1wi — Ryan Godfrey (@rgodfrey) August 7, 2016 
 
 Let's move to the bigger picture. In July 2012, the state stipulated that there had been no in-person voter fraud in the state. There have been instances of other types of fraud, as Godfrey notes, including an incident in which election workers in Philadelphia tampered with voting machines to add six votes. There have also been many instances in which voter rolls in different counties had two people that appeared to be identical, like Mr. Cheeseboro -- but few instances in which both of those people have cast ballots and raised concerns. Usually, such dual ballots "melt down to one or two if any at all," a researcher from MIT told the Pittsburgh Tribune‑Review. Why? In part because they are usually data errors or people with similar names. But also because there are a lot of protections, as Godfrey outlines. (Those protections, in fact, made it hard for Trump to vote in 2004.) 
 
 1 of 60 Full Screen Autoplay Close Skip Ad × What Donald Trump is doing on the campaign trail View Photos The GOP presidential nominee is out on the trail ahead of the general election in November. Caption The GOP presidential nominee is pressing his case ahead of Election Day. Nov. 7, 2016 Donald Trump speaks during a campaign event at SNHU Arena in Manchester, N.H. Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post Buy Photo Wait 1 second to continue. 
 
 What's above is a tally of rare incidents. In 2012, 5.5 million presidential ballots were cast in Pennsylvania. There's no evidence that thousands of fraudulent votes were cast -- or hundreds, or dozen, or even a handful. 
 
 [Rigging an election is a lot harder than you might think] 
 
 Perhaps more importantly, Trump is also already losing Pennsylvania. The RealClearPolitics polling average in the state shows Clinton with a lead of more than nine points. This, of course, doesn't include Trump's alleged, unproven voter fraud. It's an average of a number of polls in the state. 
 
 (Trump has claimed that polls under-represent his support; there's no evidence of that.) 
 
 Trump is convinced that he will win Pennsylvania, it seems, because of the support he sees in the state. Fair enough. But thousands of people at a rally doesn't compare to millions of voters. Why is Trump likely to lose Pennsylvania? Half the state thinks Obama is doing a good job. Thirteen percent of the electorate in 2012 was black; 93 percent of those voters supported Obama. In a new NBC/Marist poll, Clinton gets 94 percent of the black vote. Clinton and Trump are tied among white voters, thanks to Clinton winning women by 25 points. Obama won them in 2012 by 13. 
 
 Update: As the national race has tightened, so have polls in Pennsylvania. The most recent was conducted in late September, near the closest point of the Trump-Clinton race nationally. Clinton has a 2.4-point lead as it stands -- a figure that includes polls conducted after Trump's closing much of the national gap but before the first debate. 
 
 What's more disconcerting than Trump's baseless assertion that Clinton can only win by cheating is his suggestion that his supporters -- and law enforcement -- police the polls. Even the Inquirer, which raised the question in 2012, notes that voter ID laws wouldn't somehow erase votes for Romney. What Trump is encouraging is vigilante citizens harassing voters at polling places, asking that they prove they are who they say they are. He's asking for intimidation, explicitly: Challenge suspect voters. This is a recipe for tension, if not violence -- and the lack of voter fraud incidents reveals that there's no purpose to it. 
 
 Political campaigns often have staffers at polling places track who has voted for turnout efforts. Trump, ironically, has no real get-out-the-vote effort, which could help him police this imaginary threat. So he suggests he will turn to untrained supporters. 
 
 American politics succeeds because the transfer of power is gracious. Trump's comments once again seem to anticipate that his response to what increasingly looks like it will be a loss will not fall into that category. ||||| Marie Jeffries has a very firm view of Donald Trump, and she says it won’t change in the nine weeks before election day. 
 
 “He’s a wild man. I think he might put us into a war,” said Jeffries, who was among hundreds sauntering down Main Street in this southeastern Pennsylvania town on the balmy evening that opened Labor Day weekend. 
 
 She once was intrigued by Trump, she said, but “then he started the shenanigans, and opened his trap.” 
 
 “He’s a bully,” she said. “We’re trying to get away from it in schools. Why have a bully as president?” 
 
 Her views matter. Jeffries is a 66-year-old woman who lives in the suburbs, in her case Philadelphia’s. Right now, voters like her stand to cost Trump the presidential contests in key battleground states, starting with Pennsylvania. 
 
 Trump is caught in a powerful vise of his own making, between those who find him offensive, like Jeffries, and those who find him entrancing. The things he does and says that appeal to that latter group, which is dominated by white men, often alienate the suburban voters, particularly women, he needs if he is to broaden his base enough to win. 
 
 Mark Shimp is one of those Trump voters. He owns a plumbing company in Newtown, Pa., and calls Hillary Clinton “terrible”—the only printable description he can offer, he says. 
 
 “If there is a definition in the dictionary of what is wrong in politics, Hillary Clinton is it,” he said, standing on his front porch, a Trump campaign sign on the lawn and American and Marine Corps flags flying from a pole nearby. 
 
 “How does she feel the pain of the middle class?” 
 
 In broad strokes, Trump and Clinton supporters are seldom near each other in much of the country. The Republican dominates rural, white America; the Democrat overwhelmingly wins the cities with their higher minority populations. But in this slice of Pennsylvania north and west of Philadelphia, where the suburbs meet the exurbs, the two sides collide. 
 
 Already, the campaign has left many voters wary. 
 
 At a farmer’s market in Bucks County, north of Philadelphia, Christine Passarelli lamented that both candidates are “divisive” in different ways. 
 
 Nearby, at a Polish American festival in Doylestown, a woman who was asked about the presidential campaign raised her hands to her face and opened her mouth in a silent scream. A friend standing nearby laughed, shook her head in agreement and refused to talk about November’s election. 
 
 Trump has consistently lagged in general election polls here, in a state where he is battling not only distaste with his style, but also demographics that have aligned voters with Democrats in every presidential election since George H. W. Bush’s win in 1988. 
 
 In the last few decades, the population has dropped in the western part of the state and expanded in the east. The manufacturing communities that might be enticed by Trump’s trade and cultural arguments have declined in political potency; heightened is the importance of urban areas, particularly Philadelphia, and the diversified economy that has taken hold in the suburban counties that ring it. 
 
 Between 2000 and 2010, census figures show, Pennsylvania grew by 3.4%. Montgomery County, where Lansdale is located, grew by 6.6%. Next-door Bucks County, home to Doylestown and Newtown, rose 4.6%. Counties in the west, meantime, lost residents. 
 
 The west-to-east population shift has pushed the state toward moderation even as the Republican Party has become more conservative, setting up the disconnect that has bedeviled the party’s nominees in six straight contests. 
 
 The latest statewide poll, by Franklin & Marshall College, showed Clinton with a 7 point lead among likely voters. That was a smaller gap than in August, but remains larger than President Obama’s margin over Republican Mitt Romney in the 2012 election here. 
 
 Among Pennsylvania women, Clinton held a 10-point lead, whereas men were split between the candidates. Even among white women, a category usually secured by Republicans, Clinton led by 7. She had a striking 21-point margin among college-educated whites, a group that has never sided with a Democratic candidate in modern campaigns. 
 
 Many of those supporters are planted in the suburbs; in the more densely populated southeastern part of the state outside of Philadelphia, Clinton led by 14 points, offsetting Trump’s more substantial margins in less-inhabited areas. 
 
 “Trump has to cut away the Democratic margins in suburban counties where Democrats have had a field day in past elections, which is why they win the state,” said G. Terry Madonna, who directed the Franklin & Marshall College poll. 
 
 “The reason it’s tricky is that he’s got to appeal to men on trade.” he said, “These are not the same interests as in the southeastern part of the state, in suburban Pennsylvania.” 
 
 Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg, who has surveyed extensively in Pennsylvania this year, said the changing economy of the state has helped Clinton. Voters working in healthcare or education—two of the big and, relatively, newer employers in southeastern Pennsylvania--“don’t have the same economic woes” that have led manufacturing workers to “feel embattled and left behind,” she said. 
 
 “They think he’s a dolt,” she said of the way many suburban voters, particularly the college-educated, see Trump. “Not a stupid person, but a caricature, a reality-TV caricature.” 
 
 Trump’s campaign dismisses the notion that with his hefty appeals to blue-collar men, Trump is blunting his ascent in the suburbs. 
 
 “I think Mr. Trump’s message on increased national security, better schooling for kids, increased economic security, cuts across a wide swath” of Pennsylvania voters, said David Urban, a veteran of state political campaigns who is running the Republican’s effort here. “Mr. Trump is not a traditional politician, as has been evident. I think that inures to our benefit.” 
 
 Urban pointed to large crowds that Trump has drawn at recent events as indicative of an “enthusiasm gap” over Clinton. That argument was brushed aside by T.J. Rooney, a former Democratic state party chairman and state legislator backing Clinton. 
 
 “When he speaks in Pennsylvania, when his surrogates speak in Pennsylvania, they are speaking to people that should have been locked down three months ago,” Rooney said. “There is no indication that he has expanded, added to his vote share. There’s nothing to suggest he’s making great inroads.” ||||| Media playback is unsupported on your device Media caption US election: Relive the wild ride in 170 seconds 
 
 Some of the wisest words I have heard during this campaign came from the Governor of Ohio and Republican presidential hopeful John Kasich. 
 
 During a campaign stop at a brewery in Michigan, he explained how he had implored young aides, during a picturesque swing through the upper peninsula of the Great Lake State, to avert their eyes from their smartphones and to take in the scenery passing by unnoticed outside. 
 
 Though sometimes it meant coming late to the newest Trump Twitter storm or reading the freshest batch of Clinton campaign emails a few minutes after Wikileaks released them - an eternity in this age of hurtling news cycles - I have tried to heed his advice. 
 
 For the landscape of America is not just a wonder to behold, but always provided clues to this election. 
 
 Image copyright Getty Images Image caption John Kasich had some words of advice that Nick Bryant took to heart 
 
 The post-industrial wastelands of the rustbelt, with their skeletal remains and carcass-like old steel mills, are hardly a new feature of the topography in states like Pennsylvania and Ohio. But to view them again was to look at the seedbeds of Trumpism - rubble-strewn but seedbeds nonetheless. 
 
 In New Hampshire, especially when we visited some of the state's pretty university campuses, it was impossible not to notice the Bernie Sanders signs dotting the snow-covered lawns and verges. In Florida, ahead of Super Tuesday, it was the absence of Marco Rubio placards and the proliferation of Make America Great Again signage that pointed towards a Trump victory. 
 
 US election: The essentials 
 
 More recently in the suburbs of Philadelphia, the home to many soccer moms, security moms and Starbucks moms, demographics that often have the decisive say in presidential elections, it was the surfeit of Clinton/Kaine markers. 
 
 Had we not been looking outside the window as we drove away from Pittsburgh airport one morning, we would have failed to notice the signpost to Clinton, Pennsylvania. 
 
 Down that road, greeting drivers as they entered, was a mammoth Trump/Pence billboard, which stood in towering defiance of the name of this small hamlet, and conveyed the message that Clinton was Trump country. 
 
 Media playback is unsupported on your device Media caption US Election: Voters in Pennsylvania sound off 
 
 Just this past weekend, had our eyes been trained on our smartphones as we drove through the steel town of Braddock, Pennsylvania, we wouldn't have seen the long queue stretching around the block. 
 
 Knowing that these people could not be queuing to cast their ballots, since Pennsylvania doesn't have early voting, we stopped to see what was happening. We found out they were waiting in the damp cold for food handouts. 
 
 Many of these working people, inevitably, were supporting Donald Trump, even though none of them could ever afford to stay at one of his hotels or play a round at one of his golf courses. 
 
 Indeed, the rule of thumb in this election, in non-urban settings especially, was the more impoverished the landscape, the more likely its inhabitants were to support the billionaire. 
 
 Image copyright Getty Images 
 
 Yet this election hasn't only provided a lesson in geography, physical and political. Teachable moments have come in all manner of forms. We've had to study again the fast-changing demographics of the American electorate. 
 
 For years we've been talking about the mounting importance of the Hispanic vote, and it is clear already from early voting that this sleeping giant has awoken. In Florida, the Clinton campaign estimates it has increased by 139% over four years ago. 
 
 The multi-ethnic make-up of this nation of immigrants could end up being decisive. Indeed, just as a sign hung in the Clinton campaign headquarters in 1992 declaring "It's the economy, stupid," this year it could easily read "It's the demographics, stupid." 
 
 Because it is weighted so heavily in the Democrats' favour at present, the Electoral College, the state-based mechanism by which Americans elect their presidents, is also key. 
 
 This is primarily because many of the most populous states, like California, New York, Illinois and Pennsylvania, are reliably Democratic. They form part of the famed "blue wall" - 18 states, plus the District of Columbia - that have voted Democrat in the past six elections. 
 
 Media playback is unsupported on your device Media caption Election 2016: The race for battleground states 
 
 If recent history repeats itself, those states alone would give Hillary Clinton 242 Electoral College votes. If she won Florida, and its 29 electoral votes, she would bust through the 270 mark needed to win. 
 
 Understanding Electoral College mathematics is essential for any campaign reporter, but I wonder how many correspondents have, like me, checked the rules in Nebraska and Maine, the only states that are not winner-takes-all. Another teachable moment. 
 
 There have been others. Since most of us modern-day journalists like to try our hands at psychiatric portraiture, I have tried to learn more about narcissistic personality disorder. 
 
 Many commentators from both sides believe having a basic grasp of the condition was important in making sense of the behaviour of Donald Trump. It also came in handy when the disgraced former congressman Anthony Weiner made an unexpected cameo at the end. 
 
 On the psychiatric front, I've also learned more about co-dependency or relationship addiction. Defined as "an emotional and behavioural condition that affects an individual's ability to have a healthy, mutually satisfying relationship," it neatly described the media's relationship with Donald Trump. 
 
 Covering Hillary Clinton raised the fascinating question of what feminism means for millennial women, many of whom have been singularly unenthused by the prospect of a first female president. 
 
 Image copyright Getty Images 
 
 And as with Trump, her personality is endlessly intriguing. Why, for instance, does she struggle to convey the warmth and spontaneity in public that many of us have witnessed in private? Trump, too, can ooze charm when you meet him one-on-one. 
 
 Because of the criminalisation of American politics, and, more specifically, the FBI's investigations into Hillary Clinton's private email server, we've all had to brush up on our jurisprudence. If this election turns out to be disputed, maybe we will have to become quickly versed again in US constitutional law, as in 2000, although one can only hope that this year's contest will be decided by voters rather than jurists dressed in black robes. 
 
 Because of the "celebritisation" of American politics, the blurring of the lines between pop culture and political culture, we've all had to try at least to keep pace with the zeitgeist. 
 
 Katy Perry (Roar), Pharrell Williams (Happy) and Rachel Platten (Fight Song) have provided much of the soundtrack, but I confess that the most memorable musical moment of the campaign came for me when Donald Trump entered on the night of the Empire State primary with Frank Sinatra's thumping anthem, New York, New York, bouncing off the marble walls of Trump Tower. 
 
 That night I made the mistake of trying to record what we call a piece to camera while the billionaire was delivering his victory speech. 
 
 Blessed with a booming voice, in an atrium that doubles as an echo chamber, for a few seconds my words came close to overpowering his. Thinking he was being heckled, Trump stopped mid-stream, as his security and press team converged on my red-faced cameraman and me. 
 
 Image copyright AP 
 
 On other occasions, when Trump harangued the press in a thuggish and abusive way, I would happily have ejected myself from Trump Tower. 
 
 This has been an ugly and dispiriting campaign. All the more reason to look out the window at the landscape. 
 
 But what of the people who inhabit this great land - the voters who decide this election? 
 
 The commonplace has it that a country gets the politics it deserves. But as we reach the end to this absurdly long and costly process, my sense and profound belief is that America is better than this election. ||||| President Donald Trump, in a wide-ranging set of remarks at a Pennsylvania campaign rally for congressional candidate Rick Saccone, urged support for the GOP hopeful. He also said that the Democrat in the race, Conor Lamb, was likely to vote the party line despite efforts to distance himself from the national party. 
 
 And, on another note, he took a swipe at NBC "Meet the Press" host Chuck Todd at the Saturday night event, calling Todd a “son of a b-----” 
 
 The president mentioned a 1999 appearance on "Meet the Press" where he can be seen talking about North Korea and his stance on the situation, which has remained the same since: “You got to take them out now!” 
 
 “It’s 1999, I’m on 'Meet the Press,' a show now headed by sleepy-eyes Chuck Todd,” Trump said. “He’s a sleeping son of a b----, I’ll tell you.” 
 
 Trump also took the opportunity to slam CNN for its coverage over his decision to meet with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un. 
 
 "Fake as hell, CNN. The worst. So fake." 
 
 Trump was speaking at a campaign rally in Moon Township, Pa., in a show of support for Saccone, who faces a tough special congressional election outside of Pittsburgh. 
 
 In lengthy remarks at the evening rally, Trump told Pennsylvania voters that his new tariffs were saving the steel industry and urged them to send a Republican to the House so he can keep delivering those kinds of results. 
 
 We need our Congressman Saccone" to "keep America great," Trump said, framing the race as a national referendum ahead of the 2018 midterms, which will determine which party controls Capitol Hill. 
 
 The president dismissed Democrat Lamb's efforts to distance himself from his national party and House Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi. "We need Republicans put in office," Trump later added. 
 
 In the final days leading up to Tuesday’s competitive election, Trump warned Pennsylvania voters not to fall for Lamb, who has shown support for Trump over his own party. 
 
 "The people of Pittsburgh cannot be conned by this guy Lamb," Trump said. "He's never going to vote for us. 
 
 "He can say, 'I love President Trump.' I don't want to meet him. I might like him," the president quipped. 
 
 He warned that although Lamb has voiced his opinion against Pelosi, if Democrats do win control, Lamb will surely “vote the party line.” 
 
 The president noted that Lamb and Saccone have both endorsed his new tariffs on steel and aluminum. But he made clear that tariffs "are my baby" and are not supported by Democrats. Plenty of Republicans do, as well. But the president said the policy is evidence of his defense of the working class. 
 
 Pennsylvania's 18th Congressional District has an estimated 17,000 steelworkers and almost 90,000 voters from union households. 
 
 "Not all of our friends on Wall Street love it, but we love it," Trump said of the tariffs. 
 
 Trump's appearance was an attempt to help Saccone in the closing days of a special election to replace Republican Rep. Tim Murphy, who resigned last year amid revelations of an extramarital affair in which he is said to have urged his mistress to get an abortion when he thought she was pregnant. 
 
 Murphy, an eight-term congressman, never had a close election. But Saccone has struggled with his own fundraising and hasn't run as aggressive a campaign as Lamb, prompting criticism from Republicans in Washington. 
 
 Trump, referring to those dynamics, noted talk of Lamb as a handsome candidate. But he said he thinks he's better looking, and added that Saccone "is handsome," too. 
 
 For his part, Saccone was delighted to have support from the White House. 
 
 "The president's support is key to attaining victory," Saccone told rally attendees about 45 minutes before Trump took the stage. "There's no one that I would rather have in my corner than President Trump. Are you with me on that?" 
 
 
 
 The Associated Press contributed to this report. ||||| Construction continues on the presidential reviewing stand on Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington, Friday, Nov. 25, 2016, looking toward the White House and the Washington Monument. The reviewing stand... (Associated Press) 
 
 Construction continues on the presidential reviewing stand on Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington, Friday, Nov. 25, 2016, looking toward the White House and the Washington Monument. The reviewing stand is where then President Donald Trump will view the inaugural parade on Jan. 20, 2017. (AP Photo/Alex... (Associated Press) 
 
 WASHINGTON (AP) — The Latest on President-elect Donald Trump (all times EST): 
 
 12:20 p.m. 
 
 President-elect Donald Trump is threatening to end the detente with Cuba initiated by the Obama administration. 
 
 Trump tweeted Monday he "will terminate" President Barack Obama's reestablishment of diplomatic ties and normalization of relations if "Cuba is unwilling to make a better deal for the Cuban people, the Cuban/American people and the U.S. as a whole." 
 
 But Trump's warning could face opposition from some Republicans on Capitol Hill and corporate leaders who see continued engagement with Havana as good for American businesses and the best way to force the Cuban government to change. 
 
 Arizona Republican Sen. Jeff Flake said this past weekend a "get tough" policy that isolates Havana and restricts travel and commerce will hurt the Cuban people and make the U.S. government "a convenient scapegoat for failed socialist policies." 
 
 __ 
 
 11:55 a.m. 
 
 The Green Party says it will ask a Pennsylvania court to order a statewide recount of the state's Nov. 8 presidential election result. 
 
 But it's unclear if the courts would have authority to do so. 
 
 A lawyer for Green Party presidential candidate Jill Stein wouldn't discuss what would be alleged in the expected lawsuit Monday. 
 
 Republican President-elect Donald Trump edged Democrat Hillary Clinton by about 71,000 votes, or about 1 percent, in Pennsylvania. 
 
 Democratic Secretary of State Pedro Cortes says there's no evidence of voting irregularities or cyberattacks on Pennsylvania's voting machines, 96 percent of which record votes electronically and leave no paper trail. 
 
 A GOP lawyer says the courts lack authority to order a statewide recount. Cortes says he's also unaware of the courts having authority to do so 
 
 __ 
 
 11:50 a.m. 
 
 A Republican member of the Electoral College from Texas says he's resigning so he won't cast one of the state's 38 electoral votes for Donald Trump. 
 
 Art Sisneros previously told The Associated Press that he was wavering on supporting Trump because the Republican "is not biblically qualified for office." 
 
 In a lengthy weekend blog post, Sisneros updated that, saying "the best option I see at this time is to resign my position as an elector." 
 
 Texas doesn't require its presidential electors to vote in accordance with the state's presidential election results. Trump won Texas by around 9 percentage points and captured 290 overall electoral votes to Hillary Clinton's 232. 
 
 Texas electors meet in Austin next month to vote for president. By state law, they can vote then on a replacement for Sisneros. 
 
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 10 a.m. 
 
 President-elect Donald Trump is claiming, without evidence, that millions of people voted illegally in the election he won, issuing the baseless claim as part of his angry response to a recount effort led by the Green Party and joined by Hillary Clinton's campaign. 
 
 Trump tweeted on Sunday that he won the popular vote "if you deduct the millions of people who voted illegally." He later alleged "serious voter fraud in Virginia, New Hampshire and California." 
 
 Trump's transition team did not provide any evidence to back up the president-elect's assertions of fraud in the November election. They pointed only to past charges of irregularities in voter registration. 
 
 There has been no evidence of widespread tampering or hacking that would change the results of the presidential contest between Trump and Clinton. ||||| NEWARK, N.J. (AP) — Lawyers for Democrats around the country are filing lawsuits claiming Republicans and the campaign of GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump are pushing supporters to intimidate and confront voters on Election Day. 
 
 Trump has called on his supporters to act as "election observers" in certain areas of the country to help prevent fraud. 
 
 In Ohio, a federal judge on Friday issued a temporary restraining order against Trump's campaign and his friend and informal adviser, Roger Stone, barring them from harassing or intimidating Ohio voters during Tuesday's election. 
 
 Attorneys representing the Democratic Party argued Friday in New Jersey court that the GOP was coordinating with Trump to intimidate voters, accusations that the Republican Party says are not true in that state or in five other states where Democrats are waging similar battles. 
 
 Here's a look at the cases being heard around the country: 
 
 ___ 
 
 NEW JERSEY 
 
 The case is different than the ones filed in the states as it relates to a consent decree in place since 1982 regulating what the Republican National Committee can do when it comes to issues of ballot security. 
 
 The consent decree was created after Democrats alleged that the RNC helped intimidate black voters during New Jersey's 1981 gubernatorial election. The RNC and New Jersey's Republican Party allegedly had off-duty law enforcement officers stand at polling places in urban areas wearing "National Ballot Security Task Force" armbands. Some had guns visible. 
 
 The RNC admitted no wrongdoing but agreed to the decree to settle the case. The decree only regulates work done by the RNC and is scheduled to end next year. The Democratic National Committee wants it extended another eight years, but needs to convince a judge that the RNC has violated the 34-year-old rules. 
 
 Joshua Kaul, an attorney representing the Democratic National Committee, told the judge in Newark, New Jersey, on Friday that Trump has "repeatedly encouraged his supporters to engage in vigilante efforts" in the guise of ferreting out potential voter fraud. Kaul said the RNC is participating. 
 
 Bobby Burchfield, an attorney for Republicans, told the judge that party volunteers are engaging in normal poll-watching and that Democrats haven't found one instance in which someone was intimidated or prevented from voting. 
 
 Judge John Michael Vazquez did not immediately rule. 
 
 ___ 
 
 OHIO 
 
 A federal judge said Friday in issuing a temporary restraining order against Trump's campaign and his friend Roger Stone that anyone who engaged in intimidation or harassment inside or near Ohio polling places would face contempt of court charges. 
 
 U.S. District Judge James Gwin in Cleveland said charges would be filed regardless of political alliance. 
 
 The judge's written order blocks activities from both campaigns that include unauthorized poll watching, the admonishing or questioning of voters, and taking photos or recording voters inside or near polling places. 
 
 The Ohio Democratic Party had claimed in its lawsuit that the Ohio GOP, the Trump campaign, Stone and Stone's political action committee Stop the Steal were conspiring to suppress minorities in urban areas from casting ballots on Tuesday. The lawsuit cited comments made by Trump and his surrogates about voter fraud and efforts by Democrats to steal the election. 
 
 Gwin dismissed the Ohio Republican Party as a defendant in the case. 
 
 David Pepper, chairman of the Ohio Democratic Party, said the judge's decision was "a big win for Ohio voters." 
 
 ___ 
 
 MICHIGAN 
 
 The Michigan Democratic Party on Friday filed a lawsuit Friday asking a judge to order the state Republican Party not to intimidate voters on Election Day. 
 
 Democrats sued in Detroit federal court, seeking an injunction against Republicans, Donald Trump's presidential campaign and GOP allies. The court filing listed no specific allegations in Michigan. 
 
 Republican spokeswoman Sarah Anderson said the lawsuit is "insulting and shameful." She called it a "desperate act" by supporters of Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton. 
 
 ___ 
 
 NEVADA 
 
 A federal judge in Las Vegas on Thursday said he hasn't seen evidence that Trump's campaign is training people to intimidate voters. 
 
 U.S. District Judge Richard Boulware said he doesn't expect to issue a restraining order that Democrats sought ahead of Tuesday's election, but won't issue a final ruling until a hearing on Friday about whether Stone was encouraging what Democrats call "vigilante voter intimidation." 
 
 ___ 
 
 ARIZONA 
 
 At a four-hour proceeding in Phoenix on Thursday, Stone's attorney said Democrats have not produced evidence that his client or "Stop the Steal" is intimidating voters. 
 
 "My client is engaging in legal First Amendment speech," attorney Paul Jensen told U.S. District Judge John Tuchi. 
 
 The chairman of the Arizona Republican Party testified that the party helped train certified poll watchers and told them to avoid confronting voters inside polling locations and not to intimidate voters. Chairman Robert Graham acknowledged that they are encouraged to follow those they suspect of illegally dropping off multiple ballots out of the polling place to photograph them. 
 
 The attorney for Arizona Democrats, Mike Gottlieb, urged Tuchi to issue an injunction blocking what he called illegal tactics. 
 
 "This is an election unlike any other where the candidate has gone around the country and implored his supporters to engage in aggressive poll watching," Gottlieb said. 
 
 ____ 
 
 PENNSYLVANIA 
 
 A judge has scheduled arguments in Pennsylvania on Monday. 
 
 ___ 
 
 Cornfield reported from Trenton, New Jersey. Associated Press writers Mark Gillespie in Cleveland, Bob Christie in Phoenix and Ken Ritter in Las Vegas contributed to this story.
– Pennsylvania hasn't voted Republican in a presidential election since 1988—but if it goes Democratic this time, it will be evidence of skulduggery, according to Donald Trump. "The only way we can lose, in my opinion—and I really mean this, Pennsylvania—is if cheating goes on. I really believe it," he told a rally in Altoona Friday night, per the Guardian. "We have to call up law enforcement, and we have to have the sheriffs and the police chiefs and everybody watching," Trump said, expressing dismay at the state's lack of voter ID requirements and urging his supporters to "go around and look and watch other polling places" after they have cast their votes in November. A round-up of coverage: Wendy Weiser, director of the Democracy Program at the New York University School of Law’s Brennan Center for Justice, tells the Los Angeles Times that Trump's "disturbing and harmful" remarks could lead to the intimidation of minority voters. Pennsylvania is a must-win state for Trump, but he is 11 points behind Clinton, according to the latest Marist poll. Analysts say that while Trump is doing well with the state's working-class white voters, there aren't enough of them for him to win the state unless there is a massive shift away from Clinton in the Philadelphia suburbs, the New York Times reports. BuzzFeed reports that Trump has added a new page to his website seeking "volunteer Trump Election Observers" to help him stop "Crooked Hillary" from "rigging this election." Philip Bump at the Washington Post looks at problems that have occured in recent Pennsylvania elections, and finds there is little to warrant what he calls Trump's call for voter intimidation—which could be a "recipe for tension, if not violence." Politico reports that earlier on Friday, Trump said his claim that President Obama is the founder of ISIS was "sarcasm," then told a rally in Erie, Pa. he "was being sarcastic—"but not that sarcastic, to be honest with you." CNN takes issue with his use of the word "sarcasm."