The fervent Republicans who throng the Conservative Political Action Conference every year aren't representative of the American electorate. They aren't even representative of the GOP electorate. For four of the last five years, their straw poll for president has chosen Rand Paul or Ron Paul. These are not everyday Republicans. 
 
 Yet the conference, which took place Thursday through Saturday, is still an important event — “the starting gun of the Republican primary campaign,” in the words of one veteran GOP strategist. It's the first real national audition for potential Republican candidates, all on the same stage, one after the other — even if the TV audience is only on C-SPAN. And a good performance can help recruit conservative foot soldiers across the country. 
 
 So almost everyone who's considering a run showed up, from CPAC favorites Rand Paul and Ted Cruz all the way to Jeb Bush, who's fighting off an unwanted label as the most moderate Republican in the race. 
 
 Here's what we learned: Bush has staying power, despite conservatives' suspicion that he's a closet moderate. Scott Walker, the governor of Wisconsin, is hot — the new more-conservative hope to stop the Bush juggernaut. Sens. Cruz (R-Texas) and Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) could rise if Walker stumbles. Chris Christie looks like a spent force. And Rand Paul is still Rand Paul. 
 
 Yes, it's still early; none of these proto-candidates has even announced formally that he's running. But it wasn't too early for each to deploy campaign buttons and T-shirts in CPAC's big convention hall. And that means it isn't too early to describe the rough shape of the 2016 GOP field: no single front-runner, but four or five candidates who are most likely to succeed. 
 
 There are new ideas in the Republican Party, but CPAC, it seems, was neither the time nor the place. 
 
 Bush didn't have the attendees on his side. There was a smattering of catcalls when he took the stage; a flag-waving activist in a Revolutionary War uniform led a decorous walkout of about two dozen. 
 
 But Bush's organization had salted the room with supporters — a page from Practical Politics 101 — and their cheers beat back the boos. Bush sensibly tackled the two issues on which he has diverged from his party orthodoxy — immigration and education — and while he attempted to make his positions sound as conservative as possible, he didn't trim them much. 
 
 He repeated his support for legislation that would create “a path to legal status” for immigrants who are in the country illegally, although he agreed that enforcing border controls should come first. 
 
 On education, he defended the Common Core system of standards, which many conservatives loathe, insisting it was never intended to remove authority from state and local governments. 
 
 “It's fine to oppose the bad things,” Bush said. “We need to start being for things again.” It was a solid, steady performance before a tough audience, and a step Bush needed, to remind GOP voters that he's a conservative too. 
 
 But the real winner of the event may have been Walker, the usually taciturn governor of Wisconsin, who brought the audience to its feet with an animated speech full of red meat. 
 
 “There's a reason we celebrate July 4 and not April 15,” Walker said. “We celebrate our independence from government, not dependence on it.... Get government out of the way.” 
 
 He listed his actions as governor — confronting public employee unions, lowering taxes, pushing anti-abortion legislation, lowering restrictions on concealed firearms — and said they showed that he is “someone who's going to fight.” 
 
 He stumbled when, asked how he would handle Islamic terrorists, he suggested his experience as governor covered that, too. “If I could take on 100,000 protesters [in Wisconsin], I can do the same across the world,” he said — a parallel that doesn't hold up long. 
 
 But his audience hardly noticed. 
 
 “He's the one,” said Ruth Willis of Syracuse, N.Y. “He's already won more fights than any of the others.” Cruz and Rubio were more polished — but as senators, neither could match Walker's executive experience far away from Washington. 
 
 One more lesson: Republicans will be talking a lot about foreign policy in this campaign. 
 
 “Our allies no longer trust us and our enemies no longer fear us,” Rubio warned. He charged that President Obama “treats the ayatollah of Iran better than the prime minister of Israel.” 
 
 Rubio and others skipped ahead to criticize former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, whom they excoriated as no different from Obama in foreign affairs. “She actually gave a reset button to the Russians,” exclaimed Walker, to whoops from the audience. “A reset button!” 
 
 The growing hawkishness in conservative ranks is a bad sign for Rand Paul, who has broken with most of his colleagues to urge restraint in U.S. foreign policy. But it's in keeping with recent polls that show most voters holding more confidence in Republicans than Democrats on foreign policy — a reversal of a GOP slump after the 2003 invasion of Iraq. 
 
 What was missing from CPAC? Any sign of the intellectual ferment in conservative think tanks about how to address the stagnant incomes of the American middle class. Most speakers stuck to more traditional fare: smaller government, lower taxes, less regulation. There are new ideas in the Republican Party, but this, it seems, was neither the time nor the place. 
 
 But Election Day 2016 is still a year and a half away. On the Republican side, they're off — and (almost) running. 
 
 
 
 doyle.mcmanus@latimes.com 
 
 Twitter: @DoyleMcManus 
 
 Follow the Opinion section on Twitter @latimesopinion and Facebook ||||| Washington (CNN) Conservative Republicans, bullish on their prospects in 2016, are gathered at their vast annual conference to road test the long list of potential candidates promising to win them back the White House. 
 
 Virtually every potential Republican hopeful is making their case at the Conservative Political Action Conference, a massive gathering on the banks of the Potomac River in Maryland. The three-day political jamboree is featuring high-profile appearances from Jeb Bush , Scott Walker, Marco Rubio, along with other candidates struggling to get into the top tier. 
 
 New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, seeking to shore up his support among conservative grass-roots activists, was one of the first powerful political figures to appear, and immediately rejected the idea that his 2016 prospects are already waning. 
 
 "Is the election next week? I am not worried about what polls say 21 months before we elect the President of the United States," Christie said, dismissing polls that show him well behind in key battleground states in the fight for the Republican nomination. 
 
 Christie, who has been slowed by political troubles in New Jersey and Jeb Bush's quick consolidation of the establishment path to the Republican ticket, took a veiled shot at the former Florida governor. 
 
 "If the elites in Washington, who do backroom deals, get to decide who runs, then he is definitely going to be a frontrunner," Christie said, in a question and answer session. 
 
 Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who is already beloved among conservative activists, paced the stage like a preacher, and joked that the vast auditorium was so lacking in Democrats that it was as though Benjamin Netanyahu had been invited to speak, in a jab at the Obama administration over its opposition to the Israeli leader's speech in Congress next week on a proposed Iran nuclear deal. 
 
 "America is in jeopardy and we are met today on a great battlefield," Cruz declared. "Washington wants Obamacare but the people want liberty. Washington wants amnesty, but the people want the rule of law." 
 
 With the end of the Obama era in sight, grass roots activists at CPAC are bullish. 
 
 "I think the way most of us are approaching this is, there is going to be a Republican president. It is just a question of who it is going to be," said Daniel Ruoss, chairman of the Florida Federation of Young Republicans. 
 
 Crucial moment for GOP 
 
 The gathering comes at a crucial moment for Republicans. Walker, the Wisconsin governor, is rocketing to the top of some polls but must show he can maintain the momentum after some recent stumbles.He was due to speak later on Thursday. Bush could demonstrate his level of commitment to conservatives wary of him in his speech on Friday and Rubio and others will vie for an opportunity to break into the top tier. 
 
 And the whole show will play out as conservatives in Congress press GOP leaders to stand firm and allow the Department of Homeland Security to run out of money on Friday unless President Barack Obama's immigration orders are repealed. 
 
 CPAC is a riotous yearly festival of unfiltered right wing ideology and liberal bashing, featuring rock star conservative radio hosts and provocateurs, all paying homage to the memory of Ronald Reagan, the movement's hero. 
 
 Sarah Palin drinks a "Big Gulp" at CPAC 
 
 Mitch McConnell waves a rifle at CPAC 
 
 It was the place where the typically staid Mitch McConnell waved a musket over his head, Sarah Palin assailed the "nanny state" by guzzling on a Super Big Gulp soda and Dick Cheney told libertarian hecklers to "sit down and shut up" after they branded him a war criminal. 
 
 But this year's party atmosphere will hide a serious mission -- finding a president and schooling young activists in the techniques of micro-targeting and grass roots activism that helped Obama win twice. 
 
 Key conservative leaders believe that after a turbulent period of internal division, the movement is well positioned. 
 
 'Ready to win' 
 
 "Conservatives that I talk to around the country, they are ready to win," said Matt Schlapp, chairman of CPAC host, the American Conservative Union. 
 
 Watching Obama appoint hundreds of federal judges, two Supreme Court justices and dictate a foreign policy Republicans see as feckless has "sobered up conservatives," he said. 
 
 But conversations with grass roots conservatives and talk radio monologues often come back, sooner or later, to a latent fear -- that the GOP establishment, prioritizing electability over political purity, will foist a centrist candidate upon conservatives that they cannot embrace. 
 
 Many conservatives had trouble backing John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012 and are desperate to avoid a repeat. 
 
 "There are certainly a lot of reasons to be optimistic as we look towards 2016," said Dan Holler, spokesman for Heritage Action for America, a conservative advocacy group. But Holler warned many that Tea Party momentum must not be squandered by another establishment nominee. 
 
 Bush 
 
 That's where Bush comes in. 
 
 The former Florida governor has already said that he is willing to lose "the primary to win the general" election, prompting some conservatives to suspect he is mulling a centrist 2016 campaign to woo moderate voters. He's already alienated some grass roots activists because of his support for Common Core education standards and immigration reform. 
 
 Photos: Potential 2016 presidential candidates Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush has said his decision to run for the Republican nomination will be based on two things: his family and whether he can lift America's spirit. His father and brother are former Presidents. Hide Caption 1 of 19 Photos: Potential 2016 presidential candidates Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker has created a political committee that will help him travel and raise money while he considers a 2016 bid. Additionally, billionaire businessman David Koch said in a private gathering in Manhattan this month that he wants Walker to be the next president, but he doesn't plan to back anyone in the primaries. Hide Caption 2 of 19 Photos: Potential 2016 presidential candidates Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal is establishing a committee to formally explore a White House bid. "If I run, my candidacy will be based on the idea that the American people are ready to try a dramatically different direction," he said in a news release provided to CNN on Monday, May 18 Hide Caption 3 of 19 Photos: Potential 2016 presidential candidates Sen. Bernie Sanders , an independent from Vermont who caucuses with Democrats, has said the United States needs a "political revolution" of working-class Americans looking to take back control of the government from billionaires. He first announced the run in an email to supporters early on the morning of Thursday, April 30. Hide Caption 4 of 19 Photos: Potential 2016 presidential candidates On March 2, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson announced the launch of an exploratory committee. The move will allow him to raise money that could eventually be transferred to an official presidential campaign and indicates he is on track with stated plans to formally announce a bid in May. Hide Caption 5 of 19 Photos: Potential 2016 presidential candidates South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham has said he'll make a decision about a presidential run sometime soon. A potential bid could focus on Graham's foreign policy stance. Hide Caption 6 of 19 Photos: Potential 2016 presidential candidates Hillary Clinton launched her presidential bid Sunday, April 12, through a video message on social media. She continues to be considered the overwhelming front-runner among possible 2016 Democratic presidential candidates. Hide Caption 7 of 19 Photos: Potential 2016 presidential candidates Sen. Marco Rubio announced his bid for the 2016 presidency on Monday, April 13, a day after Hillary Clinton, with a rally in Florida. He's a Republican rising star from Florida who swept into office in 2010 on the back of tea party fervor. But his support of comprehensive immigration reform, which passed the Senate but has stalled in the House, has led some in his party to sour on his prospects. Hide Caption 8 of 19 Photos: Potential 2016 presidential candidates Lincoln Chafee, a Republican-turned-independent-turned-Democrat former governor and senator of Rhode Island, said he's running for president on Thursday, April 16, as a Democrat, but his spokeswoman said the campaign is still in the presidential exploratory committee stages. Hide Caption 9 of 19 Photos: Potential 2016 presidential candidates Jim Webb, the former Democratic senator from Virginia, is entertaining a 2016 presidential run. In January, he told NPR that his party has not focused on white, working-class voters in past elections. Hide Caption 10 of 19 Photos: Potential 2016 presidential candidates Vice President Joe Biden has twice before made unsuccessful bids for the Oval Office -- in 1988 and 2008. A former senator known for his foreign policy and national security expertise, Biden made the rounds on the morning shows recently and said he thinks he'd "make a good President." Hide Caption 11 of 19 Photos: Potential 2016 presidential candidates New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has started a series of town halls in New Hampshire to test the presidential waters, becoming more comfortable talking about national issues and staking out positions on hot topic debates. Hide Caption 12 of 19 Photos: Potential 2016 presidential candidates Rep. Paul Ryan, a former 2012 vice presidential candidate and fiscally conservative budget hawk, says he's keeping his "options open" for a possible presidential run but is not focused on it. Hide Caption 13 of 19 Photos: Potential 2016 presidential candidates Sen. Rand Paul officially announced his presidential bid on Tuesday, April 7, at a rally in Louisville, Kentucky. The tea party favorite probably will have to address previous controversies that include comments on civil rights, a plagiarism allegation and his assertion that the top NSA official lied to Congress about surveillance. Hide Caption 14 of 19 Photos: Potential 2016 presidential candidates Texas Sen. Ted Cruz announced his 2016 presidential bid on Monday, March 23, in a speech at Liberty University. The first-term Republican and tea party darling is considered a gifted orator and smart politician. He is best known in the Senate for his marathon filibuster over defunding Obamacare. Hide Caption 15 of 19 Photos: Potential 2016 presidential candidates Democrat Martin O'Malley, the former Maryland governor, released a "buzzy" political video in November 2013 in tandem with visits to New Hampshire. He also headlined a Democratic Party event in South Carolina, which holds the first Southern primary. Hide Caption 16 of 19 Photos: Potential 2016 presidential candidates Republican Rick Perry, the former Texas governor, announced in 2013 that he would not be seeking re-election, leading to speculation that he might mount a second White House bid. Hide Caption 17 of 19 Photos: Potential 2016 presidential candidates Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, a social conservative, gave Mitt Romney his toughest challenge in the nomination fight last time out and has made trips recently to early voting states, including Iowa and South Carolina. Hide Caption 18 of 19 Photos: Potential 2016 presidential candidates Political observers expect New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo to yield to Hillary Clinton's run in 2016, fearing there wouldn't be room in the race for two Democrats from the Empire State. Hide Caption 19 of 19 
 
 Polls also show Bush has work to do with the primary electorate. 
 
 A Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday showed Bush 15 points down to Walker among likely caucus goers in Iowa, a state where social and evangelical conservatives play a key role. 
 
 Bush also has a family problem with conservatives. The movement never warmed to his father, George H.W. Bush, while his brother, George W. Bush, lost their support with his record on spending. 
 
 While Jeb Bush has lined up big donor backing, laid out a hawkish foreign policy and effectively pushed Romney from launching another race, he has yet to make a true play for conservatives. 
 
 There's no better place to do that than CPAC. 
 
 "I am going to be very curious to see how Jeb Bush performs," said Ned Ryun, founder of American Majority, a new conservative grass roots organization. "He has the potential to win some people over, but I do think there are going to be some skeptics in the crowd." 
 
 CPAC risks 
 
 Walker is a mirror image of Bush at CPAC. He already has the instinctive trust of conservatives after winning two gubernatorial elections in a Democratic leaning state and beating a recall. 
 
 But he must show he is up to the scrutiny of being a top tier candidate and show his involvement in recent disputes over whether Obama is a Christian or loves his country does not mean he is prone to stumble into political sideshows. 
 
 Walker said his speech will show he is both a new voice and a tested leader. 
 
 "People in American want a fresh face, they want big, bold ideas from outside Washington and they want someone who has got a proven track record," he told Greta Van Susteren on Fox News on Tuesday. 
 
 Other candidates hope to spring a surprise, including Rubio, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal and Carly Fiorina. Perhaps CPAC will be the place where Chris Christie gets his wobbling pre-campaign back on track, or where former Texas Gov. Perry turns it around after his disastrous 2012 primary run. 
 
 "I do think is somebody going to step up to the plate and insert themselves in the conversation, which has almost become a Walker-Bush conversation," said Ryun. 
 
 The immediate impact of those efforts could register as soon as Saturday afternoon in the annual CPAC Straw Poll. Though it's more of a popularity contest than a true reflection of presidential viability, it does offer a quick snapshot of the sentiment of the conservative movement. 
 
 Rand Paul is tipped to make it a hat trick of straw poll wins by flexing his organizational skills. But the last Republican to win the straw poll and reach the White House was George W. Bush in 2000 -- so it's hardly a reliable predictor of the next president. 
 
 CPAC also offers a chance for more marginal potential candidates to take a run in the spotlight. Former business executive Carly Fiorina, who wants to bring gender diversity to the Republican race, took the chance to slam Democratic front runner Hillary Clinton over reports that her family's foundation had infringed rules on foreign donations established when she was secretary of state. 
 
 "She tweets about equal pay for women but won't answer basic questions about her own offices' pay standards—and neither will our President. Hillary likes hashtags. But she doesn't know what leadership means," Fiorina told activists. ||||| Rich Lowry February 27, 2015 6:22 PM @richlowry by 
 
 They were the winners of CPAC. 
 
 Here are some impressions from the candidate speeches during the first two days of CPAC, in no particular order: 
 
 Carly Fiorina: She followed up on her strong Iowa performance with another really good, tough speech. She is an adept public speaker and is obviously auditioning for the role of anti-Hillary attack dog. 
 
 Scott Walker: It was a barnburner of a speech. He lit up the crowd and handled a heckler adroitly. His record in Wisconsin is a roll call of achievements to thrill conservatives. A few weeks ago, I thought there were three questions about Walker: Would he be up for a national race as a performer? Could he scale up his Wisconsin operation? And what are his national positions? 
 
 There shouldn’t be any more doubt on the first. But he is still especially wobbly on the last. I think he is getting unfairly dinged on comparing union protestors to terrorists — that’s clearly not what he meant — but he said what he did because he’s straining for national-security credibility. He’d be better off just having clear, sound answers to foreign-policy questions rather than reaching to extrapolate from his Wisconsin experiences. 
 
 In the meantime, based on CPAC, the Walker wave will probably only keep building. 
 
 Ted Cruz: Oddly, the quotient of applause lines to applause seemed off. His jokes were clunky and he was a little shouty. But there is no doubt that people still love him for his role in the last government shutdown. One problem for his candidacy is that his show-me-what-you’ve done riff is a better setup for Scott Walker than for himself. It is a bit odd for a senator to say “Talk is cheap” when, unless they are master legislators, pretty much all that senators do is talk. 
 
 Marco Rubio: He gave a speech that felt a little more like a set speech at a political convention than the usual CPAC red-meat fare. He kept it short to leave more time for a Q&A with Sean Hannity. The speech was devoted to American exceptionalism and American leadership and was well received. He was excellent in the discussion with Hannity. I’m glad to hear that, after the experience of comprehensive immigration reform, he now favors enforcement-first on immigration. 
 
 Rubio is a natural political talent, who has spent the last year thinking through a fresh domestic-policy agenda in support of his view of America as a land of aspiration. His personal narrative could line up very powerfully with his emphasis on American exceptionalism and his theme of the future versus the past (his one word for Hillary in the Q&A with Hannity: “yesterday”). It’s a crowded field and perhaps Rubio will never find the daylight for running room, but if he does: Watch out. 
 
 Chris Christie: Candidates had the option of giving a speech or getting interviewed. Christie chose to get interviewed by Laura Ingraham. It was a wise choice. Laura challenged him, but he weathered the questioning fine and it was a format best suited for the force of Christie’s personality. The problem for him is that his early accomplishments in New Jersey and his personality manifestly aren’t going to be enough to get him through a Republican nomination battle. 
 
 Jeb Bush: He, too, opted for a Q&A instead of a speech. Sean Hannity questioned him and hit on the big two problem issues, immigration and Common Core. Jeb handled them well, and emphasized border enforcement in his discussion of immigration. (Republicans are wrong, by the way, merely to focus on the border, when workplace enforcement is equally or more important.) 
 
 He touted his record in Florida, which was one of conservative accomplishment, and put an emphasis on economic growth. Among Bush’s strengths are his policy knowledge and his seriousness of purpose. When Hannity asked him what kind of conservative he is, he basically said a conservative practitioner—someone who doesn’t just believe and talk about this stuff but gets it done. He’s not an exciting speaker and he shares some mannerisms with his brother that might be a little off-putting to people. 
 
 But he did well before a skeptical audience, and perhaps his best line was when Hannity asked him what he thought of people reacting negatively just at the mention of his name. Bush said he would count those people as neutral and be happy to be their second choice — exactly the right answer for someone who can’t afford to give off any sense of entitlement. 
 
 Overall, it was a heartening two days. This is a very strong field, and it hasn’t even kicked into full gear yet. 
 
 — Rich Lowry is the editor of National Review. He can be reached via e-mail: [email protected].
– Today saw the conclusion of the Conservative Political Action Conference, a gathering which a GOP strategist calls "the starting gun of the Republican primary campaign," the Los Angeles Times reports. The event saw a number of possible candidates offer their pitches, and Scott Walker was among its stars: The Wisconsin governor made a "barn-burner of a speech. He lit up the crowd," writes Rich Lowry at the National Review, noting that the event settled any doubt as to whether Walker is "up for a national race." At the New Yorker, John Cassidy adds that Walker looks "like Bush’s strongest rival. Whenever someone mentioned Bush’s name, boos rang out." Indeed, Bush faced the threat of a walkout at the very conservative event, according to a report in the Washington Times. But reports say only a few people made good on that threat, and the former Florida governor came off well. "He didn’t make any enemies, or any new ones at least. Indeed, he made a pretty convincing case that he is a committed conservative," Cassidy writes. "In entering the conservative den and emerging unscathed, he did what he needed to do." Among the other candidates: Marco Rubio, Lowry writes, is "a natural political talent," and in the Times, Doyle McManus calls the Florida senator a possibility to "rise if Walker stumbles." As for Chris Christie, he "weathered" questioning by Laura Ingraham well, but "the problem for him is that his early accomplishments in New Jersey and his personality manifestly aren’t going to be enough to get him through a Republican nomination battle," Lowry writes.