Based on interviews with more than a dozen pollsters, strategists and TV admakers, here’s a look at the five most vulnerable House incumbents in the 2014 elections: 
 
 Rep. Bill Enyart (D-Ill.) 
 
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 Enyart, a freshman Democrat, is running for reelection in a southern Illinois district where Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn and President Barack Obama are deeply unpopular. A former adjutant general in the Illinois National Guard, Enyart remains an unknown figure throughout much of the district and has struggled to raise campaign cash. His Republican opponent, state Rep. Mike Bost, is famous for his tirades on the floor of the Legislature. 
 
 Rep. Michael Grimm (R-N.Y.) 
 
 Grimm’s 20-count federal indictment has made him the most endangered House GOP lawmaker of 2014. But he’s not done yet. Internal polling from both parties suggests that Grimm is tied or slightly ahead of his Democratic opponent, former New York City Councilman Domenic Recchia. But Democrats have promised to bombard Grimm with millions of dollars of TV ads, and national Republicans are queasy about coming to Grimm’s aid. 
 
 (WATCH: House races preview) 
 
 Rep. Rick Nolan (D-Minn.) 
 
 Democrats have grown increasingly worried about Nolan, who won a 2012 comeback race after serving in the House from 1974 to 1980. Over the summer, the Democratic groups House Majority PAC and the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees joined forces to air TV ads in an attempt to boost the 70-year-old incumbent, who has also struggled to raise money. Nolan faces a strong opponent in Republican businessman Stewart Mills, who has been dubbed the “Brad Pitt” of the GOP. 
 
 Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D-N.H.) 
 
 Polling shows Shea-Porter, a third-term Democrat, falling behind her likely Republican opponent, former Rep. Frank Guinta. Guinta, who unseated Shea-Porter in 2010 and then lost to her in 2012, is well known in the Manchester area and the favorable environment could push him over the top in a district that skews slightly to the right. 
 
 Rep. Steve Southerland (R-Fla.) 
 
 Southerland, a sophomore Republican, faces perhaps the strongest Democratic recruit in the country in Gwen Graham, a Leon County schools official who is the daughter of former Sen. Bob Graham. Graham has outraised Southerland, and she’s waging an energetic campaign, running quality TV ads and joining her father on the trail. ||||| With Republicans certain to gain House seats next Tuesday — the only real question is how many — it’s enough to make you want to tune out and focus on the Senate. Peel back a layer or two, though, and there’s actually plenty of drama to keep things interesting the final week. 
 
 In California, a much-hyped contender is trying to fend off explosive last-minute sexual harassment accusations and save his candidacy. In Arizona, a former Air Force fighter pilot who’s fallen behind is trying to mount a comeback. In Nebraska, the national GOP is gambling that a TV commercial that’s been compared to the infamous Willie Horton ad will put a beleaguered incumbent over the top. 
 
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 And in New York, an indicted congressman who once threatened to toss a reporter over a balcony just might defy his critics and win another term. 
 
 (POLITICO's 2014 race ratings) 
 
 Here’s POLITICO’s look at the five most suspenseful House races in the 2014 homestretch. 
 
 Arizona’s 2nd 
 
 It’s one of the most scrutinized races in the country, pitting Democratic Rep. Ron Barber, a popular congressman and shooting spree survivor, and Republican Martha McSally, a retired Air Force officer who was the first female to fly in combat. 
 
 Now, it looks to be headed for a photo finish. 
 
 For most of the year, Barber has maintained a steady lead over McSally, successfully portraying himself as a moderate figure in a swing district. McSally has waged what’s been widely seen as a lackluster campaign, spending more time talking about her personal history than her policy positions. 
 
 (Full 2014 election results) 
 
 But operatives from both sides believe McSally is closing the gap thanks to an infusion of cash from Republican groups who view her as a rising star and future party leader. Over the last month, Republicans have outspent Democrats on the TV airwaves $1.75 million to $1.25 million. 
 
 Worth keeping on eye on: What role former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, Barber’s former boss, plays in the final week of the contest. The former congresswoman, who along with Barber survived the Jan. 2011 Tucson massacre, has been airing TV commercials voicing her support for Barber, who succeeded her in Congress. 
 
 California’s 52nd 
 
 Republican Carl DeMaio, a former San Diego councilman and one of his party’s highest profile recruits, nearly saw his campaign collapse this month when an ex-staffer accused him of sexual harassment. 
 
 But DeMaio is still in the hunt. An independent poll released last week showed him running neck and neck, 46 percent to 45 percent, with Democratic Rep. Scott Peters. DeMaio, who’s denied the allegations, also got a boost when law enforcement officials recently said they would not be pursuing charges against him. 
 
 (POLITICO's polling center) 
 
 Many GOP strategists still see DeMaio as the underdog. In a politically moderate district, they point out, Peters has succeeded in driving up negative sentiment of DeMaio by tying him to the tea party. They also worry that the harassment accusations, true or not, will leave him damaged. 
 
 But DeMaio’s party is sticking by him, convinced he has a path to victory. Republican groups intend to drop $1.2 million on TV ads in the final week in hopes of pushing him over the top. 
 
 Nebraska’s 2nd 
 
 It will be remembered as one of the most explosive TV commercials of the year. 
 
 Produced by the National Republican Congressional Committee, the ad accuses Democratic state legislator Brad Ashford of supporting a “good time law” that allowed murderer Nikko Jenkins to be released from prison early. It drew immediate comparisons to the racially-charged 1988 “Willie Horton” commercial and was rebuked by members of both parties. Former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele, who is African American, called it “racist.” 
 
 But some Republicans believe the spot could deliver a badly-needed jolt to GOP Rep. Lee Terry, who has waged an uninspiring campaign. The congressman has been hurt by a series of self-inflicted wounds, including his remark during the government shutdown that he would continue receiving a federal paycheck because he had a “nice house” to pay for. 
 
 Whatever one’s opinion of the Jenkins ad, it cut through the clutter in a way few commercials do. Many strategists say the race, one of Democrats’ top pickup opportunities, could go either way. 
 
 New York’s 11th 
 
 Just a few months ago, who would have guessed that scandal-plagued GOP Rep. Michael Grimm would be on his way to reelection? 
 
 Yet that’s precisely what appears to be happening. Operatives from both parties say Democrat Domenic Recchia is trailing Grimm, who faces a 20-count federal indictment in connection to his past management of a Manhattan health food restaurant and who in January threatened to throw a journalist off a Capitol Hill balcony. 
 
 It’s a circumstance that has much to do with the ideological nature of the Staten Island-based district, which has long favored Republicans. But it also may have something to do with Recchia himself. The former New York city councilman, who’s repeatedly stumbled over policy questions, has faced questions about his intellectual aptitude. He was recently lampooned on the Daily Show. 
 
 Recchia might not be done yet, however. On Monday, a national Democratic group, House Majority PAC, announced that it would be spending $1.7 million on a last-ditch push to oust Grimm. 
 
 West Virginia’s 3rd 
 
 Democratic Rep. Nick Rahall has been a mainstay of Capitol Hill, for nearly four decades representing a West Virginia district even as it turned deeply conservative. 
 
 Now, his time may be up. After months of attacks from Republican groups, many of them funded by the Koch brothers, Rahall is teetering. Internal polling from both parties shows him narrowly trailing Republican Evan Jenkins, a state senator who last year switched parties. Jenkins has presented Rahall, who typically skates to reelection, with his most serious challenge since 1990. 
 
 Much of the GOP barrage has focused on tethering Rahall to President Barack Obama, who is deeply unpopular in a state that views him as an enemy of the coal industry. It also painted Rahall, 65, as a congressman who’s gradually lost touch with his constituents. 
 
 If Jenkins can sustain his lead through the final week of the race and defeat Rahall, it would give Republicans control of a deep red seat that’s almost certain to remain in their column for years to come.
– Given the stakes, you may be tempted to focus more on Senate races next Tuesday than House ones—but there's plenty of political drama to hold your attention in the lower chamber. Among the most interesting races: In New York's 11th district, a man facing a federal indictment on 20 counts—who also threatened on camera to hurl a reporter off a balcony—is actually leading the race, both parties say. Republican Rep. Michael Grimm is ahead of Domenic Recchia in a red area of Staten Island, and Recchia hasn't helped himself with befuddled discussions of policy, Politico reports. In California's 52nd, a poll shows Democratic Rep. Scott Peters with 45% of the vote to ex-San Diego councilman Carl DeMaio's 46%. DeMaio is facing trouble over accusations of sexual harassment from a former staffer; he denies them, and police aren't looking to charge him. The GOP is still hopeful. In West Virginia's 3rd, an almost four-decade incumbent is grappling with Koch-funded attacks pushing his association with President Obama. Democratic Rep. Nick Rahall is now just behind Republican Evan Jenkins in both parties' polls—and if Jenkins wins, Republicans are poised to hold onto the seat for a long time. Here's an odd one: Both candidates running in Florida's 26th are caught up in scandals, and perhaps the weirdest is the accusation that Democratic incumbent Joe Garcia ate his own earwax on TV, the Daily Beast reports. But opponent Carlos Curbelo has taken flak for calling Medicare and Social Security "Ponzi schemes." In Nebraska's 2nd, the race could hinge on an inflammatory ad. Former RNC chairman Michael Steele says the ad, which targets Democratic state lawmaker Brad Ashford, is "racist." The spot argues that Ashford backed a "good time law" resulting in the early release of convicted murderer Nikko Jenkins. The district offers Democrats a chance at a new seat, but some in the GOP believe the ad could help the party keep it. Of course, some people think this election is pretty boring...