Nonpartisan report: Ryan Medicare plan hurts Florida seniors the most 
 
 By Stephen C. Webster 
 
 Monday, October 15, 2012 15:14 EDT 
 
 The nonpartisan Kaiser Family Foundation said Monday that a year-long study has found that Rep. Paul Ryan’s (R-WI) plan to turn Medicare into a privatized “premium support” coupon program will result in higher costs for six out of every 10 beneficiaries just to maintain their current levels of service. 
 
 Kaiser’s study (PDF) found that his plan to partially privatize Medicare would result in wild variations in policy costs across the country, with some states set to be hit much worse than others, confirming in greater detail earlier studies that found Ryan’s plan would result in significantly higher costs for most seniors. 
 
 In particular, Kaiser notes that the crucial swing state of Florida — where former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney currently enjoys a slight lead in the polls over President Barack Obama — would see the worst fallout, with about 77 percent of Medicare beneficiaries expected to pay $200 or more per month under the Republican’s coupon program. 
 
 It would be especially expensive in areas with the highest concentration of Medicare enrollees, like Miami-Dade County, where nearly all seniors face paying nearly $500 more per month, or Palm Beach County, where 99 percent of plans would go up by more than $370 a month. Kaiser added that Los Angeles County and Orange County in California also face some of the worst price hikes under the Ryan coupon plan, where 99 percent of seniors face paying an additional $$216-$260 more per month. 
 
 Overall, seniors would face increased costs of about $720 per year on average across the country under Ryan’s proposed plan, Kaiser added. 
 
 “That means that under Romney’s plan, millions of people—especially those with complicated health needs who see a lot of different doctors—would have to give up their doctors or pay extra to maintain access to their choices,” a prepared statement from the Obama campaign claimed. “Even worse, this study is just examining the impact of their plan in a single year. It ignores the role of adverse selection against traditional Medicare—which would drive costs higher and force more people to give up their choice of doctor. It also doesn’t factor in the impact of the cap Romney would place on the growth rate of the vouchers, which results in seniors paying thousands of dollars more every year regardless of which plan they choose.” 
 
 Both Romney and Ryan have campaigned on the claim that 7.4 million seniors will lose their access to Medicare due to cuts in Obama’s health reforms, but many fact checkers have refuted that representation of the law. The Affordable Care Act does not cut Medicare benefits, but instead aims to find billions in savings in the Medicare Advantage program, which officials say is unnecessarily costly. The 7.4 million figure cited by both conservative candidates is actually the Congressional Budget Office’s estimate of how many more people would be covered under traditional Medicare plans that cost beneficiaries less. Additionally, Ryan’s budget includes the same provision, and most Republicans in Congress have voted for it twice. 
 
 Reacting to Kaiser’s study, Romney spokesperson Andrea Saul told Talking Points Memo that Kaiser’s study does not reflect “the Romney-Ryan plan,” which is supposedly different from the Ryan plan, although neither candidate has specified where they differ on substance. “Our plan would always provide future beneficiaries guaranteed coverage options with no increase in out-of-pocket costs from today’s Medicare,” Saul insisted, offering no further details. 
 
 Romney said in August that he would implement a program that’s “the same if not identical” to what Ryan proposed. ||||| Nearly six in 10 Medicare recipients would pay higher premiums under a hypothetical privatized system along the lines of what Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney has proposed, according to a study released Monday. 
 
 The report by the nonpartisan Kaiser Family Foundation also found striking regional differences that could lead to big premium hikes in some states and counties. That finding instantly made it ammunition in the presidential campaign. 
 
 In the senior-rich political swing state of Florida, the hypothetical plan modeled by Kaiser would boost premiums for traditional Medicare by more than $200 a month on average. In Nevada, another competitive state, 50 percent of seniors would face additional monthly premiums of $100 or more for their coverage. A new pattern of regional disparities would emerge from overhauling Medicare's payment system, the report said. 
 
 Romney and his running mate, Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan, have proposed changing Medicare to a "premium support" system dominated by private plans that are paid a fixed amount by the government. President Barack Obama says replacing the current open-ended Medicare benefit would shift costs to seniors. 
 
 Romney's approach would mirror the difference between traditional workplace pensions and modern-day 401(k) plans, in which the employer contribution is limited. While Medicare financing wouldn't be as heavy a lift for taxpayers, the risk is that retirees could end up paying more if medical costs rise. 
 
 The study carried a prominent disclaimer: It should not be taken as a specific analysis of the Romney-Ryan proposal, partly because their plan lacks details. However, Kaiser says it is modeled on what Romney and Ryan propose. 
 
 "This approach is similar to the premium support proposal included in (House Budget) Chairman Paul Ryan's ... budget proposal for (fiscal year) 2013 that was embraced by presidential nominee Mitt Romney," the report said. 
 
 Like the Romney-Ryan plan, government health insurance payments for individual seniors would be tied to the cost of the second-lowest private insurance plan in their geographical area, or traditional Medicare, whichever is less expensive. Seniors could pick a private plan or a new public program modeled on traditional Medicare. But if their pick costs more than the government payment, they would have to pay the difference themselves. 
 
 One of the biggest differences, however, is that the report assumes the privatization plan is already in place. Under Romney-Ryan, current beneficiaries and those 10 years from retirement could stay in the traditional system. But the Kaiser study assumed the change has already happened, and all Medicare recipients are already in the new system. 
 
 The study also did not model the effects of additional financial help that Romney has promised for low-income seniors and those in frail health, because such details have not been filled in. 
 
 The Obama campaign pounced on the findings, while the Romney camp pointed to the disclaimer, saying the report does not reflect the candidate's own plan. 
 
 "As the authors stress, this is not a study of the Romney-Ryan plan," said Romney spokeswoman Andrea Saul. "Our plan would always provide future beneficiaries guaranteed coverage options with no increase in out-of-pocket costs from today's Medicare." 
 
 The Obama campaign posted a link to the study on its website. 
 
 "Under Romney's plan, millions of people _especially those with complicated health needs who see a lot of different doctors_ would have to give up their doctors or pay extra to maintain access to their choices," said Obama spokesman Adam Fetcher. 
 
 Kaiser's top Medicare expert, Tricia Neuman, said the organization has been working on the report since the early part of the year, well before Romney picked Ryan as his running mate and cemented his support for the congressman's Medicare overhaul. 
 
 Kaiser serves as an information clearinghouse about the health care system. Neuman, a vice president of the group, said the goal is to help inform next year's budget debates, regardless of who is elected president. 
 
 Currently about 75 percent of Medicare's nearly 50 million beneficiaries are in the traditional government program, while the remaining 25 percent have opted for private Medicare Advantage plans. The standard Part B premium most beneficiaries pay is now $99.90 a month. 
 
 The study's main finding is that changing Medicare from an open-ended program that covers the same benefits across the country will have profound local implications. 
 
 Since Medicare spending per person varies dramatically around the country, privatizing the program would create big regional disparities. In high-cost areas, the difference between the second-least expensive private insurance plan and traditional Medicare can be substantial, said Neuman. 
 
 Because the government's contribution would be limited under the new system, seniors in areas with high medical costs would see an increase in their premiums for traditional Medicare unless they switch to a low-cost private plan. 
 
 In low-cost areas, the reverse would be true: seniors in private plans would pay higher premiums unless they switched to traditional Medicare. 
 
 Overall, the study found that 59 percent of all Medicare recipients would face higher premiums if they stick with their current coverage, including about half of those in the traditional program. 
 
 In five states _ California, Connecticut, Florida, New Jersey and Nevada _ more than 45 percent of beneficiaries would pay at least $100 a month more in premiums. 
 
 Premiums could also vary within states. In San Francisco and Sacramento counties in the northern part of California, premiums for traditional Medicare would remain unchanged. But to the south, in Los Angeles and Orange counties, premiums would go up more than $200 a month. 
 
 "If coupled with caps on the growth in Medicare spending, a premium support approach could make federal (spending) for the Medicare program more predictable but also increase costs and financial risks for beneficiaries over time," the report said. 
 
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 Online: 
 
 Kaiser Family Foundation study - http://tinyurl.com/8bj3l6h ||||| Marc Piscotty/Getty Images 
 
 WARREN, Ohio-Paul Ryan is headed to a Florida retirement community with his mother on Saturday to make his argument about the need to change Medicare for future generations. Ryan's mother is in her late 70s. 
 
 He'll appear at The Villages, the world's largest retirement community and a conservative stronghold that is a must stop for Republican candidates. In 2008, a massive crowd of between 30,000 and 60,000 seniors came out to a rally Sarah Palin held there. Despite the Republican-leanings it's a clear sign the Romney campaign will continue to stay on the offense on Medicare, but with this trip they may be entering the lion's den. 
 
 Ryan's mother, who will accompany him, can help her son connect with the senior citizen audience. She lives part of the year in Lauderdale-By-The Sea and part of the year outside of Janesville, Wisconsin. 
 
 But if addressing a group of Florida seniors on Medicare reform is a challenge for Ryan, even as his drastic changes to the program would alter no benefits for those currently over 55, then Ryan is making his pitch to one of the friendliest lion's dens possible: The Villages is a hotbed of pro-Romney money. 
 
 Get more pure politics at ABCNews.com/Politics and a lighter take on the news at OTUSNews.com 
 
 The retirement location itself made a hefty corporate donation to the main super PAC supporting Mitt Romney's presidential bid. The Villages of Lake Sumter, Inc., the Florida retirement community that includes property development, golf and other recreational activities, donated $250,000 to Restore Our Future last June. Five individual residents donated a total of over $678,000 to the group, which also received money from utility, communications, commercial property, and investment companies located in The Villages, Fla. 
 
 Ryan and Romney continue to hone their Medicare argument. Ryan was asked directly about his criticism of cuts to future Medicare spending in the president's health care plan Thursday and how that squares with his own signature budget plan, which includes those same exact cuts. 
 
 At a hot dog restaurant here he said because those cuts are already signed into law they are part of the baseline and if the Affordable Care Act is repealed, like the GOP ticket is proposing, that money would come back to Medicare. 
 
 "First of all, those are in the baseline, he put those cuts in," said Ryan at the Original Hot Dog Shoppe, suggesting that he is simply working with the budget situation handed to him by the president and Democrats. "Second of all, we voted to repeal Obamacare repeatedly, including those cuts. I voted that way before the budget, I voted that way after the budget. So when you repeal all of Obamacare what you end up doing is that repeals that as well. In our budget we've restored a lot of that…We would never have done it in the first place. We voted to repeal the whole bill. I just don't think the president's going to be able to get out of the fact that he took $716 billion from Medicare to pay for Obamacare." 
 
 At a Catholic college Thursday morning Ryan repeated that the Medicare debate is one "we need to have" and one "we are going to win," before laying into Obama over these same cuts. 
 
 "What he probably did not mention yesterday is that when he passed his signature health care achievement Obamacare he raided 716 billion dollars from Medicare to pay for Obamacare," Ryan said at Walsh University. "This will lead to fewer services for seniors. President Obama's campaign calls this an achievement. You think raiding Medicare to pay for Obamacare? Neither do I." 
 
 He added that the Romney ticket will "protect and strengthen Medicare, leave it in tact for our current seniors and save it for the next generation." 
 
 Ryan's plan would replace Medicare with a voucher program. In his plan Medicare would cease to pay for health services directly, instead operating as a board that approves a menu of health plans for public sale and doles out predetermined lumps of money to people enrolled in Medicare, to help them buy those plans. This could cost seniors thousands of dollars more each year, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. 
 
 Ryan endorsed the same exact cuts in his plan, the same plan Romney has said he would sign if he became president. The cuts do not affect benefits for seniors or the elderly. Instead, they reduce provider reimbursements and curb waste, fraud and abuse. In an interview with ABC News Green Bay, Wisconsin affiliate, WBAY, Wednesday Romney said his "plan for Medicare is the same, if not identical, it's probably close to identical" to Ryan's signature plan. 
 
 ABC News' Chris Good contributed to this report.
– Paul Ryan's coupon-based Medicare plan would result in higher costs for six in 10 beneficiaries for the same service they're getting now—and Floridians would suffer the greatest financial toll, a yearlong, nonpartisan study finds. The Kaiser Family Foundation says that Medicare beneficiaries in Florida would pay, on average, more than $200 extra per month on the Ryan plan, the AP reports. In Miami-Dade County, which has a large population of beneficiaries, most recipients would pay almost an extra $500 per month; 99% of Palm Beach County plans would rise $370 a month, the Raw Story reports. Seniors nationwide would pay an average of an extra $720 a year, the Kaiser report finds. Both campaigns have already issued reactions to the study. The Obama campaign says the study doesn't even tell the full story, since it only looks at "a single year" and "ignores the role of adverse selection against traditional Medicare—which would drive costs higher." A Romney rep notes that the study doesn't look at "the Romney-Ryan plan"—distinct from the Ryan plan, though Mitt Romney has called the two "the same, if not identical." The Romney-Ryan plan would mean "no increase in out-of-pocket costs from today’s Medicare," the spokeswoman adds.