By Erin McPike - July 10, 2012 
 
 Early this spring, as the new electoral map began to take shape, an intriguing scenario began circulating in political circles: the very real possibility that the 2012 presidential election could result in an Electoral College tie. 
 
 The most likely combination that would produce such a result requires Mitt Romney to carry all the states John McCain won in 2008, which after the redistricting process account for 180 electoral votes. Add to Romney's column Indiana (11), Virginia (13), North Carolina (15), Florida (29), Ohio (18), and New Hampshire (4). That would yield 270 electoral votes for Romney to 268 for President Obama, the narrowest possible win for the challenger. 
 
 But then subtract from the Republican ticket the single electoral vote Obama won in Nebraska due to the anomalous way the Cornhusker State allocates its five electoral votes, and there would be a rare electoral tie that would send the election to the House of Representatives. 
 
 There are other avenues to an electoral tie, as well, and given shifting dynamics and poll numbers, they aren't as unlikely as one might think. 
 
 For the sake of projections, consider Indiana lost for the president and give it to Romney (191). Add to his column North Carolina (15), Florida (29) and Ohio (18), getting the GOP challenger to 253. Then throw in Iowa (6), where Romney has been campaigning vigorously and where poll numbers are tight, getting him to 259. Add in Wisconsin (10), where Republicans are newly energized, and -- presto! -- Romney gets to 269. 
 
 Such a scenario assumes that the president will hang on to Virginia’s 13 electoral votes, where he leads in the RCP Average. Indeed, Public Policy Polling is releasing a new survey of Virginia voters Tuesday that will show Obama leading Mitt Romney comfortably. PPP pollster Tom Jensen wrote on Twitter Monday afternoon, “Another very good poll for Obama in Virginia. Going to be pretty surprised if he doesn't win it again.” 
 
 To be sure, there are only two states not won by McCain in which Romney isn’t trailing the president in the RCP Average. They are Indiana, where the last survey taken was in March, and North Carolina, where Romney leads the president in the RCP Average, 47.3 percent to 45.3 percent. 
 
 In Ohio, Obama beats Romney in the average by 2.6 percentage points, and in Virginia it’s 2.4 points. The president is ahead in Iowa by 2.5 points and leads by 1.7 points in Florida. 
 
 Out West, the president is doing even better: He leads Romney by a 5.3-point margin in Nevada -- a state Republicans believe is automatically in play due to its dubious distinction of having the highest unemployment rate of any state in the country at 11.2 percent. In Colorado -- where Romney will visit Tuesday -- Obama leads by 3 points. 
 
 In half of the states Romney hit along his six-state bus tour in June (which also featured Iowa and Ohio, mentioned above), the president is comfortably ahead. Obama enjoys an 8-point lead over his challenger in the RCP Average in Pennsylvania and a 5.7-point lead in New Hampshire, where Romney owns a vacation home and spent the last week. Obama has a 3-point advantage in the RCP Average in Wisconsin. Michigan, however, is closer. Obama has a lead of only 1.8 points there. 
 
 Let’s assume, then, that Romney is able to pull ahead of the president in the following states where the margin is closest. Starting with 191 (McCain victories plus Indiana), give Romney North Carolina, where he’s leading (15), Florida, which boasts the president’s narrowest polling lead in a state (29), Michigan, which is the next closest in the RCP Average (16), Virginia (13) and Iowa (6) -- and Romney is back to 270. But subtract that single Nebraska vote, and they both get 269. 
 
 Given the current polling data, that may be the likeliest of the electoral tie combinations. Right now, if the concept of “tossup states” are rejected, President Obama beats Mitt Romney on the RCP "no toss up" map, 332 electoral votes to 206, with just Indiana and North Carolina flipping to the challenger after going for Obama in 2008. ||||| Wisconsin May Be the New Ohio 
 
 A Commentary By Scott Rasmussen 
 
 In Election 2000, Florida was the decisive state in the Electoral College. In 2004, Ohio was the ultimate battleground that put George W. Bush over the top. This year, it might come down to Wisconsin. 
 
 That's a state President Obama won by 14 points four years ago. But Wisconsin has gone through an amazing two years of nonstop campaigning since Gov. Scott Walker was elected in 2010. After he took on the teachers unions, there were efforts to recall several Republican state senators and then Walker himself. 
 
 The governor not only survived, but he won more votes in his recall election this year than he won on Election Day in 2010. But it's not what happened in Wisconsin that could make the state decisive in Election 2012; it's what's happening all around the country. 
 
 All signs point to a close race with just over a week to go. In fact, current polling suggests it might be close enough to produce a split decision, with Mitt Romney winning the popular vote and the president keeping his job with a victory in the Electoral College. 
 
 Most national polls show Romney with a very slight lead of around 2 percentage points. 
 
 Still, it's Obama who has the edge in the Electoral College. Rasmussen Reports currently projects that the president should win states with 237 Electoral College votes. Romney has enough states to win 235. Those projections assume Florida and North Carolina end up in the GOP column -- an assumption the Obama campaign contests. 
 
 That leaves seven toss-up states -- Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado and Nevada. 
 
 To move into the White House, Romney absolutely needs to win Virginia's 13 electoral votes. If he can accomplish that goal, he just needs to win Ohio and one other swing state to reach the magic number of 270 for victory. 
 
 Romney has never led in Ohio according to scores of public polls. The numbers in the Buckeye State so far suggest that the race is either tied or leaning slightly in Obama's favor. 
 
 If Ohio goes for the president, Romney has a few perilous paths to victory available to him. All require him to carry Wisconsin and its 10 Electoral College votes. 
 
 The simplest path without Ohio would be for Romney to win Wisconsin, Colorado and one other swing state. It's plausible, but an uphill struggle. The latest Rasmussen Reports polling in Wisconsin shows the president up by 2 points. 
 
 Despite the polls, some conservative activists in Wisconsin think it's possible to pull off an upset. They point out that, unlike Ohio, the state was not flooded with anti-Romney ads over the summer (in Wisconsin, they were still fighting about the governor's election recall at the time). That means more voters may be open to supporting the GOP candidate. 
 
 Additionally, in Ohio, almost all analysts believe the Democrats have a better ground game to get voters to the polls. That's not the case in Wisconsin. The Republican ground game got a good and very successful dry run during the recall election in June. And, of course, the man on the ticket with Romney is from Wisconsin. If Paul Ryan is able to pull in just a few extra votes, it could make a lot of difference. 
 
 On election night, the first places to watch will be Virginia and Florida. If Romney wins there, watch Ohio. If the president wins Ohio, Wisconsin is likely to be the decisive battleground state of Election 2012.
– Surprise, surprise: Yet another poll, this one by the Washington Post, shows the presidential race to be a statistical dead heat. What about an electoral dead heat? Real Clear Politics crunches the numbers and comes up with several ways that Mitt Romney and President Obama could be tied at 269 electoral votes apiece after the polls close, a result that would require the House to decide the next president. One example, which Erin McPike at RCP calls the most likely way for a tie to happen: Romney claims all of John McCain's states, along with Indiana, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, and New Hampshire. But he loses one electoral vote to Obama in Nebraska because of that state's "anomalous way" of allocating its five votes. Voila: 269-269. There are several other ways, or combinations thereof, that yield the same result, "and given shifting dynamics and poll numbers, they aren't as unlikely as one might think," adds McPike.