The Liven missile boat of the Russian Baltic Fleet out at sea to take part in Zapad 2017, on September 16. Photo: Vitaly Nevar/TASS 
 
 On Thursday, Russia and Belarus began a week of war games, which rattled Eastern European NATO states and led to rampant speculation about the true purpose of the exercise before they even began. Dubbed “Zapad 2017” (meaning “West”), the games are meant to simulate an attack by a coalition of fictional Western states — Lubenia, Vesbaria, and Veishnoria — which some observers see as stand-ins for Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia. 
 
 The Zapad exercises are neither new nor unusual: The Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact countries carried out a series of “Zapad” exercises simulating NATO invasions from the West throughout the ’70s and ’80s, and this is the fourth conducted by the Russian Federation since 1999. What has Europe worried is that Zapad 2017 comes at a time of considerable tension in Eastern Europe, while the memory of 2013, when Russia used the Zapad exercise to lay the groundwork for the seizure of Crimea from Ukraine the following year, remains fresh. Military exercises were also used as a disguise for the invasion of Georgia in 2008. 
 
 By and large, NATO does not see Russia pulling a similar stunt with this year’s exercise, but the alliance has expressed concern that Moscow is not being transparent about the number of troops involved in the exercise, claiming that under 13,000 soldiers are participating when the total could really be as high as 100,000. What the Russian and Belarusian governments have depicted as a routine defensive drill looks from the outside like a rehearsal for a major war. 
 
 The Baltic countries, NATO members that see themselves as likely targets of Russian president Vladimir Putin’s expansionist ambitions, are particularly unnerved. Poland is upping defense spending and even neutral Sweden is holding war games of its own, its largest in 20 years. Ukrainian president Petro Poroshenko, meanwhile, characterized Zapad as “preparations for an offensive war of continental proportions.” The fear is that the military assets Russia deploys in Belarus for the exercise will somehow not find their way back to Russia, instead serving as forward bases for an offensive on “Veishnoria” — or, as the Belarusian opposition fears, a permanent occupation of their country. 
 
 Not everyone agrees that Zapad is worth making a fuss about, however: Finnish defense minister Jussi Niinistö called it a propaganda exercise and said the panic it had inspired was exactly what Putin was going for. “Western countries have taken the bait completely, they’ve plugged the exercises so much,” he added. 
 
 Zapad is indeed, in Poroshenko’s formulation, practice for a “war of continental proportions.” Russia and Belarus may deny that NATO is the enemy envisioned in these war games, but it’s hard to imagine who else they could have in mind. The lingering question is whether the exercise is indeed defensive, or a dress rehearsal for an attack. 
 
 Of course, it could always be a bit of both. It’s important to bear in mind that in Putin’s eyes, the post–Cold War NATO is not a defensive alliance keeping Russia from doing something stupid, but rather an instrument of American hegemony stepping ever more brazenly into Russia’s backyard. Both the invasion of Georgia in 2008 and the Ukrainian incursion in 2014 (and the ongoing frozen conflicts in both countries) have been sold to the Russian public (and anyone who believes what they see on RT) as defensive acts to protect Russian people and interests against American aggression. 
 
 In the fake news era, the line between genuine concern and convenient excuse is thinner than ever, but if Putin and other Russian elites are smoking what they’re selling, they really do see the U.S. meddling not only in Russia’s sphere of influence, but in Russia itself, seeking to destabilize the country in order to undermine and ultimately overthrow its government. In that light, the Zapad exercise is more an expression of fear than of confidence. 
 
 Alongside this fear is a suspicion that U.S. and Western encroachment on Russia’s sphere is actually harmful to regional and global stability. Putin and other Russian elites believe the U.S. has overstayed its welcome as a sole superpower, destabilizing the Middle East and Eastern Europe by inserting itself into conflicts it doesn’t understand and exporting Western ideas and values to places they don’t belong. As a critique of U.S. foreign policy in the 21st century so far, this is not entirely outlandish. 
 
 Yet if Putin is motivated by the ostensible threat of the U.S. and its allies to the global order, he is also a revisionist, with dreams of restoring Russia to its former imperial glory. Protecting the old Russosphere against the damaging influence of the U.S. does not mean leaving these countries to determine their own destinies. To Putin, while American influence does not belong in Eastern Europe, Central Asia, or the Middle East, Russian influence very much does. In this regard, his foreign policy may be “defensive” but also revanchist or expansionist, depending on one’s point of view. 
 
 Any attempt to read the tea leaves of Zapad 2017 must take all of these confounding angles into account. In any case, it is too early to conclude anything about what Putin is up to. The nature of the game will become clear when the Russian soldiers currently defending Belarus from Veishnorian aggression go home — or when they don’t. ||||| FILE - In this file photo taken on Wednesday, Aug. 2, 2017 Russian soldiers compete during a team's run at the Army Scout Masters competition, part of Army Games, outside Novosibirsk, 2900 km (some 1800... (Associated Press) 
 
 FILE - In this file photo taken on Wednesday, Aug. 2, 2017 Russian soldiers compete during a team's run at the Army Scout Masters competition, part of Army Games, outside Novosibirsk, 2900 km (some 1800 miles) east of Moscow, Russia. The Russian military says major war games, the Zapad (West) 2017... (Associated Press) 
 
 MOSCOW (AP) — In a bid to dispel Western fears about planned war games by Russia and Belarus, the Russian military said Tuesday the maneuvers simulating a response to foreign-backed "extremists" won't threaten anyone. 
 
 The maneuvers, to be held Sept. 14-20 in Belarus and western Russia, have raised NATO concerns. Some alliance members, including the Baltic states and Poland, have criticized Moscow for a lack of transparency and questioned its intentions. 
 
 Amid spiraling tensions over fighting in Ukraine, Western worries about the planned maneuvers have ranged from allegations that Russia could keep its forces in Belarus after the drills, to fears of a surprise attack on the Baltics. 
 
 Russia's Deputy Defense Minister, Lt. Gen. Alexander Fomin, rejected what he described as Western "myths about the so-called Russian threat." 
 
 "The most improbable scenarios have been floated," he said at a briefing for foreign military attaches. "Some have reached as far as to claim that the Zapad 2017 exercises will serve as a 'platform for invasion' and 'occupation' of Lithuania, Poland and Ukraine." 
 
 Fomin said the Russian military will invite foreign observers to the maneuvers, which will involve 5,500 Russian and 7,200 Belarusian troops, about 70 aircraft, up to 250 tanks, 200 artillery systems and 10 navy ships. 
 
 Moscow's assurances, however, have failed to assuage Russia's neighbors, which expect the drills to be far greater in scope than officially declared. 
 
 Estonian Defense Minister Juri Luik said last month that Moscow could deploy up to 100,000 troops for the maneuvers. Poland's Deputy Defense Minister Michal Dworczyk also questioned Russia's official claims, saying that Warsaw expects many more Russian soldiers and equipment to be deployed. 
 
 Speaking Monday on Polish state Radio 1, Dworczyk expressed hope that the exercise "will not include any aggressive scenarios" and won't cause any incidents, adding that "operations on this scale always run this risk." 
 
 NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said last week that the alliance will send two observers to the maneuvers, but noted that access offered by Belarus does not constitute real monitoring. He said NATO is seeking "a more thorough way of observing" the drills. 
 
 NATO has rotated military units in the Baltics and Poland and held regular drills in the region — activities that Moscow has criticized as a reflection of its hostile intentions. 
 
 The alliance has watched Russian military moves with utmost concern following Moscow's 2014 annexation of Crimea and support for pro-Russian insurgents in eastern Ukraine. Russia had leased a naval base in Crimea prior to its seizure, and used troops deployed there to quickly overtake the Black Sea peninsula. 
 
 Speaking in Moscow, Fomin said next month's exercise will simulate a military response to foreign-backed extremist groups and aren't directed against anyone in particular. 
 
 "Despite the fact that the bulk of it will be held on the territory of Belarus, we had in mind an imaginary adversary unrelated to any specific region," he said. "According to our estimates, the situation envisaged in the maneuvers' scenario could develop in any part of the world." 
 
 Dworczyk, Poland's deputy defense minister, said Warsaw is particularly worried about the possibility that Russia could keep some of its forces in Belarus after the maneuvers. 
 
 "Obviously, this would negatively impact the region," he said. 
 
 Belarus has maintained close political, economic and military contacts with its giant eastern neighbor. Its authoritarian leader, President Alexander Lukashenko, has relied on cheap Russian oil and billions of dollars in loans to keep the nation's Soviet-style economy afloat. 
 
 But relations between the two allies often have been mired in disputes, as Lukashenko has accused the Kremlin of trying to strong-arm Belarus into surrendering control over its most-prized industrial assets. 
 
 Belarus hosts a Russian military early warning radar and a navy communications facility, but Lukashenko has resisted Kremlin pressure for hosting a Russian air base. Some in Belarus voiced fears that the base could provide a foothold for Moscow if it decides to annex its neighbor, like what happened in Crimea. 
 
 The flamboyant Belarusian leader has hailed bilateral military cooperation and criticized NATO's moves, but he has refused to recognize Crimea as part of Russia. He also failed to follow suit when Moscow acknowledged Georgia's breakaway provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states after a brief 2008 Russian-Georgian war. 
 
 Alexander Golts, a Moscow-based independent military analyst, said that while Moscow would certainly like to permanently station its forces in Belarus, Lukashenko will strongly oppose such a move because that could put his nation in cross-fire in case of a conflict between Russia and NATO. 
 
 "The possibility of a permanent Russian military deployment in Belarus appears unlikely," Golts said. 
 
 Alexander Klaskovsky, an independent political analyst in Minsk, agreed. 
 
 "Lukashenko is involved in a delicate balancing act, trying to show his loyalty to the Kremlin without damaging ties with the West," he said. 
 
 The chief of the Belarusian military's General Staff, Oleg Belokonev, pledged Tuesday that all Russian troops involved in the maneuvers will leave Belarus by the end of September. 
 
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 Monika Scislowska in Warsaw and Yuras Karmanau in Minsk, Belarus, contributed to this report.
– Russia is staging war games in Belarus in September, but US officials and US allies in the area are concerned the country's real aim is to bring military equipment into the country and leave it there. "People are worried this is a Trojan horse. They say, 'We're just doing an exercise,' and then all of a sudden they've moved all these people and capabilities somewhere," the head of US Army forces in Europe tells Reuters. He says NATO officials will be watching the Zapad 2017 exercise closely for that reason. Some allies think the exercise will involve nuclear weapons training and could utilize more than 100,000 troops, which would make it the largest such exercise since 2013, the Guardian reports. The official did note that there are no indications Russia really is planning such a "trojan horse," but called for more transparency from the country as to the size and scope of the war games in order to ease concerns. A senior Russian diplomat says Moscow has no plans to leave military equipment in Belarus, and says the concern from NATO is just "artificial buffoonery" over routine war games that is "aimed at justifying the sharp intensification of the NATO bloc (activities) along the perimeter of Russian territory." NATO is also keeping a close eye on war games in the Baltic Sea taking place July 24-31; Chinese warships were to join the Russian navy there Friday.