Final Senate race rankings 
 
 With Kevin Robillard, Maggie Severns and Elena Schneider 
 
 The following newsletter is an abridged version of Campaign Pro's Morning Score. For an earlier morning read on exponentially more races — and for a more comprehensive aggregation of the day's most important campaign news — sign up for Campaign Pro today. (http://www.politicopro.com/proinfo) 
 
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 MOST LIKELY TO FLIP — “Senate race rankings: Trump dragging on GOP majority,” by Campaign Pro’s Kevin Robillard: With two weeks until Election Day, Senate “Republicans remain optimistic they can prevent a wave, but Democrats believe the bottom will fall out on GOP hopes any day now. Here are the top 10 key Senate races, ranked in order of likelihood that each seat switches hands in this election. Democrats need to net at least four seats to take back the Senate majority if Hillary Clinton wins the White House.” 
 
 — No. 1: Illinois, held by GOP Sen. Mark Kirk: ... No. 2: Wisconsin, held by GOP Sen. Ron Johnson: While he’s gained some ground since the summer, “there’s still only been one public poll ever showing Johnson leading over Democratic former Sen. Russ Feingold, and Democratic strategists argue Johnson’s alleged comeback is a mirage." No. 3: Pennsylvania, held by GOP Sen. Pat Toomey: “Pennsylvania marks the start of the core of the map: The six states that will make or break a majority come January 2017. All of these races could be fairly described as toss-ups and will see the majority of the outside spending in the final two weeks of the election.” 
 
 — No. 4: Indiana, where GOP Sen. Dan Coats is retiring. No. 5: New Hampshire, held by GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte. No. 6: Missouri, held by GOP Sen. Roy Blunt. No. 7: North Carolina, held by GOP Sen. Richard Burr. More within; full story here. 
 
 AD STRATEGERY — “Complaints allege House Democrats’ Trump ads break campaign finance law,” by Campaign Pro’s Scott Bland: "A conservative-leaning watchdog group is accusing the DCCC and a dozen of its candidates of using illegal advertising practices this fall, arguing in new complaints that the committee has used its ad strategy to direct extra money to a number of its campaigns. The FEC complaints center on the growing number of Democratic TV ads linking Republican House candidates to Donald Trump. It’s a potentially devastating line of attack given Trump’s unpopularity, and the DCCC has spent hundreds of thousands of dollars in coordination with some candidates to help them air the ads — well in excess of the normal $48,100 limit on coordinated expenditures in most House races. Some candidates have legally exceeded the party-coordination limits in recent elections by making carefully worded ‘hybrid’ ads, which justify the unlimited cost splitting by making generic references to the parties as well as mentioning local candidates. But the DCCC is sharing massive campaign costs on ads directly naming a presidential candidate as well as local House candidates, which have prompted a series of FEC complaints from the Foundation for Accountability and Civic Trust." Full story. 
 
 MORE AD THEMES — "GOP candidates give up on Trump and run against Clinton," by POLITICO's Alex Isenstadt: "Republicans, desperate to salvage their congressional majorities amid Donald Trump’s collapse, are increasingly presenting themselves as checks on a Hillary Clinton presidency — a final argument that, if only implicitly, concedes the White House to Democrats. The offensive, which has been under discussion for months and is only now being unleashed, is designed to win over voters who want to see Clinton’s powers curtailed — even as she closes in on a potentially sweeping national victory." More on this below; full story here. 
 
 Days until the 2016 election: 14. 
 
 Thanks for joining us. You can email tips to the whole Campaign Pro team at sbland@politico.com, eschneider@politico.com, krobillard@politico.com, tmeyer@politico.com and mseverns@politico.com. 
 
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 FROM THE MAGAZINE — America’s Mayors to Trump: Enough with the hellhole stuff, already: In a new What Works Mayors’ Survey, we found that the Census Bureau has good news for our cities. In 2015, median income has ticked up, the poverty rate has plunged, the gender pay gap has narrowed and the uninsured rate has shriveled — and these gains are being amplified in cities. Read More. 
 
 NEW THIS MORNING — Congressional Leadership Fund debuts a dozen new ads: The super PAC and its sister nonprofit, American Action Network, are out with new TV ads in 12 House districts. The CA-21 ad attacks Democrat Emilio Huerta of profiting from a "crooked sweetheart insider deal." Watch the ad here. The CO-06 ad attacks Democrat Morgan Carroll's "spending obsession." Watch the ad here. The FL-26 ad goes after Democrat Joe Garcia over the conviction of one of his former aides. Watch the ad here. The IA-01 ad attacks Democrat Monica Vernon for supporting the Iranian nuclear deal. The IA-03 ad charges that Democrat "Jim Mowrer's agenda will hurt the economy and kill jobs." Watch the ad here. The ME-02 ad charges that Democrat Emily Cain "definitely supports raising our taxes." Watch the ad here. The MI-01 ad ties Hillary Clinton to Democrat Lon Johnson. Watch the ad here. 
 
 — The MI-07 ad attacks Democrat Gretchen Driskell for supporting tax hikes. Watch the ad here. The MN-08 ad accuses Democratic Rep. Rick Nolan of voting "against a job-training program" for veterans. Watch the ad here. The NE-02 ad attacks Democratic Rep. Brad Ashford for taking "care of himself with your money." Watch the ad here. The VA-10 ad accuses Democrat LuAnn Bennett of backing a plan that "taxes the insurance policies families rely on." Watch the ad here. The WI-08 ad charges that Democrat Tom Nelson "helped create the largest budget deficit in state history." Watch the ad here. 
 
 FIRST IN SCORE — Comstock praises bipartisanship in new ad: Republican Rep. Barbara Comstock boasts her bipartisan approach to lawmaking in a new ad. Comstock recently abandoned Trump in her effort to keep her northern Virginia seat during a challenge from Democrat LuAnn Bennett. “Others seek to divide us, I get results that unite us,” Comstock says in the ad. “I’ve worked with Democrats and Republicans to get results for northern Virginia.” Watch the ad here. 
 
 FIRST IN SCORE — Sidie links Trump and Yoder in KS-03: The Democrat taking on GOP Rep. Kevin Yoder is linking the Republican to Trump on TV for the first time. "Even after this" — a clip of Trump's lewd 2005 Access Hollywood tape then plays — "Kevin Yoder still supports Donald Trump for president," the narrator of Sidie's ad said. Trump has trailed Clinton in Democratic and Republican internal polls of the district, which Mitt Romney carried in 2012. Sidie's new ad also continues linking Yoder and unpopular GOP Gov. Sam Brownback. Watch the ad here. 
 
 FIRST IN SCORE — Majority Forward uses rival bike messenger in new Pennsylvania ad: Just when we thought we were done with bike messengers appearing in ads for Pennsylvania’s Senate race, the Democratic nonprofit Majority Forward is using a new one in an ad. “That other messenger? He’s been lying to you about Katie McGinty,” the messenger says in the ad. “The truth is in government and in business, Katie McGinty has been a leader in clean energy. She’s never done anything illegal or improper.” Watch the ad here. 
 
 — Super PAC ad attacks Hassan over Exeter scandal: Granite State Solutions is attacking Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan over a sex scandal that happened while her husband was headmaster at Phillips Exeter, a tony boarding school. The teacher, who was dismissed, subsequently donated to Hassan’s campaigns. There’s no direct evidence Hassan know of the scandal, but the ad asks: “How could she not have known?” Watch the ad here. 
 
 — Senate Leadership Fund is also hitting the air in Pennsylvania, with TV and radio ads attacking McGinty on ethics. The ads go after her for steering a grant to a company that employed her husband. Watch the TV ad here. And listen to the radio version here. 
 
 NEW THIS MORNING — New Strickland TV ad features Obama: Democratic Senate candidate Ted Strickland prominently features prior remarks from President Barack Obama in a new TV ad. “Ted Strickland, love this man,” Obama says in the ad. Watch the ad here. 
 
 FLASHBACK — “Bayh lunched with bank lobbyists on day of ‘08 bailout vote,” by POLITICO’s John Bresnahan: “Former Indiana senator and longtime Banking Committee member Evan Bayh held a series of private meetings with financial services industry executives and lobbyists throughout 2008 — just as Wall Street was collapsing and big banks were seeking a bailout from Washington, according to a newly obtained schedule for the ex-lawmaker now running to reclaim his seat. One of the engagements — which included lunches, dinners and golf outings — happened the day of the Wall Street bailout vote. On Oct. 1, 2008, when the Senate voted to approve the $700 billion rescue package, Bayh held a “Lunch with Supporters” that included lobbyists for the financial services industry, his schedule shows.” Full story. 
 
 DEBATE NIGHT — Toomey ducks Trump questions in Pennsylvania Senate debate: There were two competing story lines coming out of Monday night’s Pennsylvania Senate debate. The first? With 15 days before the election, GOP Sen. Pat Toomey still hasn’t revealed who he plans on voting for in the presidential election. The moderator of the debate at Temple University in Philadelphia asked three times, and Toomey dodged each time, eventually explaining: “I don’t think my constituents care that much how one person is going to vote.” Democrat Katie McGinty accused Toomey of having two different messages in the state: “In Philadelphia, the senator will say that he has differences and disagreements with Donald Trump," she said. “But in other parts of the state, what we hear from the senator is how excited he will be to confirm President Trump’s Supreme Court nominees.” 
 
 — The DSCC switches out attack ad: In recent weeks, McGinty’s campaign has repeatedly attacked Toomey for owning a bank that used a controversial technique called confessions of judgment to start foreclosure proceedings. But guess who else also used confessions of judgment? Pennsylvania’s Department of Environmental Protection when McGinty ran it. Toomey’s campaign blasted out video of McGinty answering questions on the topic after the debate, and also forced some alterations to a TV ad on the topic from the DSCC. “We made a minor adjustment at the request of one station and the ad carries the same message, which Senator Toomey’s own lawyers acknowledge is fact: the bank Senator Toomey co-founded relied on a controversial legal maneuver to expedite foreclosures on Pennsylvanians,” said Lauren Passalacqua, a DSCC spokeswoman. “That Senator Toomey spent more time quibbling over this ad than he did working to protect consumers shows how out of touch he is.” 
 
 UTAH UPDATE — UT-04 Democratic poll: Love 49, Owens 41: GOP Rep. Mia Love leads Democrat Doug Owens 49 percent to 41 percent, according to a new internal poll conducted by the DCCC’s targeting and analytics department. While committees don’t typically release polls showing their candidates losing by such margins, there’s a silver lining for Democrats: Hillary Clinton and the independent candidate Evan McMullin are tied at 29 percent in the district, with Donald Trump in third at 21 percent. The poll also found that 85 percent of registered Democrats reported being enthusiastic about voting, while only 72 percent of Republicans felt the same way. Here’s the full polling memo. 
 
 MORE POLLS, OFF THE BEATEN PATH — NJ-07 Democratic robopoll: Jacob and Lance tied at 45 percent: GOP Rep. Leonard Lance isn't considered vulnerable this cycle. But a new poll from his Democratic challenger, Peter Jacob, shows a tied race in the Republican-leaning district in New Jersey, with Lance and Jacob at 45 percent. At the presidential level, Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump 45 percent to 44 percent. The poll was conducted Oct. 21-22 by Public Policy Polling and surveyed 982 registered voters. Here's the full polling memo. 
 
 PRESIDENTIAL SPEED READ — "Florida spirals away from Trump," by POLITICO Florida's Marc Caputo: "From polling to early voting trends to TV ad spending to ground game, Donald Trump’s Florida fortunes are beginning to look so bleak that some Republicans are steeling themselves for what could be the equivalent of a “landslide” loss in the nation’s biggest battleground state. Trump has trailed Hillary Clinton in 10 of the 11 public polls conducted in October — according to POLITICO’s Battleground States polling average, Clinton has a 3.4 point lead. Even private surveys conducted by Republican-leaning groups show Trump’s in trouble in Florida, where a loss would end his White House hopes." Full story. 
 
 CODA — QUOTE OF THE DAY: "Literally, people will seriously say, 'Can't you delete his Twitter app?'" — Kellyanne Conway, in an interview with CNN's Dana Bash. ||||| With two weeks to go in this train wreck of an election, the outcome is coming into focus. Hillary Clinton, ahead in all but two swing states, appears on track to get at least 330 electoral votes (some analysts say more)—a comfortable margin over Donald Trump. She would become the first female president, certainly a historic event, but would also enter office distrusted and disliked by a broad swath of the nation. Presidents always have a honeymoon period; hers is likely to be brief, if it exists at all. 
 
 On the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue, Republicans will retain control of the House of Representatives, but their huge majority—the biggest in 90 years—will be whittled down. Republicans now control 246 seats to the Democrats’ 186 (there are three vacancies at the moment). That’s expected to be halved, to a 233-202 edge, according to the latest analysis by the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. That means Paul Ryan will likely remain Speaker, if he can control the far right wingers in his caucus—the same bunch who wore John Boehner down a year ago. 
 
 But the Senate, that’s a very different story. Here’s the math. Right now Republicans control 54 seats. But they’re defending 24 of them on November 8th. At least two—Mark Kirk in Illinois and Wisconsin’s Ron Johnson—are projected to lose. That reduces the GOP’s margin to two. Three other Republicans—Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire, Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania and North Carolina’s Richard Burr—are toss ups. Clinton leads in all three of these swing states, which suggests trouble for these down-ballot Republicans. If two of them flipped, that makes it 50-50. Assuming Clinton wins the presidency, Vice President Tim Kaine would break ties in favor the Democrats. 
 
 So what happens then if Clinton wins the White House, Democrats regain control (albeit barely) of the Senate, while Republicans maintain their leadership of the House? 
 
 On the surface it sounds like we’re in for more gridlock. On everything from banking legislation to trade, taxes and spending, Republicans could continue with their obstructionist ways, as they have with the soon-to-depart Barack Obama. But there are three reasons why things could be different. 
 
 First, the red wall of opposition won’t be as thick. Second, polling shows that the Republican brand has been badly damaged in recent years. The GOP might decide that after yet another presidential defeat—the sixth popular vote loss in seven national elections—it’s time to change. 
 
 Finally, there is this overlooked fact about Hillary Clinton: when she was in the Senate, she became known as someone who reached across the aisle looking for common ground with Republicans. Don’t believe me? Two-thirds of her Senate bills had Republican co-sponsors. A President Clinton might be more of a get-stuff-done deal-maker than Obama ever was, or ever could be. 
 
 Also read: Clinton and Trump’s agreement on this issue could mean a big things for buyback ETFs 
 
 An example of early accommodation with Republicans could be on trade. At first Clinton was for TPP, the Trans-Pacific Partnership. She opposed it during her primary fight against Bernie Sanders, but now there have been hints from Camp Clinton that the new president would move back towards the center come January. If she did, she would find support from the pro-trade wing of the GOP. It could very well be that if Clinton flipped again on trade, that opposition within her own party—led by Sanders—could cause her more problems than the Republicans. 
 
 Donald Trump has sucked so much oxygen out of the room that many of Clinton’s proposals seem almost unknown. But one thing she would do in her first 100 days is roll out an infrastructure bill that her website says would be the “biggest investment in American infrastructure in decades.” The cost would be some $275 billion, which her close friend and possible Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer says could be paid for by lowering the tax rate on profits stashed overseas by U.S. corporations. 
 
 That’s an idea that Republicans in both chambers would likely back; they have previously suggested taxing these profits at a 8.75% rate. Given that American corporations have some $2.5 trillion parked overseas, that implies a $218 billion windfall. If the Democrats want $275 billon for infrastructure, that implies an 11% rate. So perhaps a compromise around 10% could be made. Both figures are well below the current 35% maximum rate, of course. 
 
 That aside, the split in Congress could hinder any sweeping tax overhaul. Clinton’s desire to hike taxes on the top 1% of earners would likely get nowhere in the House. But the prospects look brighter for doing away with the “carried-interest” loophole that lets investment firms declare profits as capital gains (which are taxed at lower rates than ordinary income). It’s an unpopular issue for Republicans to defend and Clinton wants it closed. Other parts of Clinton’s economic agenda, such as a higher national minimum wage, would continue to find little Republican support in either the House or Senate. But given that at least 30 states (including several red ones) and many big cities have raised the minimum wage on their own, that’s not a fight that Clinton needs to make. ||||| Three weeks before Election Day, Republicans are on the brink of winning the Senate. But their advantage is so slight that a morale-sapping defeat is still very much possible. 
 
 That's the state of play in the latest edition of National Journal Hotline's Senate race rankings. At this point, it looks like Republicans have the inside track on taking over six red states currently represented by Democrats, and two of this year's rock-star GOP nominees also have Democrats on the ropes in a pair of swing states, Iowa and Colorado. Those states could give Republicans some breathing room if a state such as Alaska surprises when the returns come in. But late-breaking trouble in Kansas, of all places, has opened the door to continued Democratic control a little bit wider. 
 
 Democrats currently control 55 seats in the Senate, meaning the GOP has to win six to take over the chamber. As we've said before, the best way to think about the Senate landscape is in tiers: The top three states look very likely to flip; the GOP appears to have smaller advantages in the next three states; the next bloc of three look like something close to pure toss-ups; and the incumbent party is favored in the races after No. 9. The races in our list are ordered by the likelihood of the seat flipping between the parties. 
 
 1. Montana (Open D, Sen. John Walsh retiring) (Previous ranking: 3) 
 
 Montana Democrats are on their third candidate of the cycle at this point (fourth, if you count Brian Schweitzer's planned-then-canceled bid) after Walsh withdrew following graduate-school plagiarism revelations. That, in a nutshell, shows why the state has been the Democrats worst Senate race of 2014. It's almost hard to remember that last year, most analysts believed either Sen. Max Baucus or the former Gov. Schweitzer would hold the seat for their party. Now, GOP Rep. Steve Daines is nearly certain to win against Democratic state Rep. Amanda Curtis, which will mark the first time a Republican will hold the seat in more than 100 years. 
 
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 2. West Virginia (Open D, Sen. Jay Rockefeller retiring) (Previous: 2) 
 
 Democratic Secretary of State Natalie Tennant hasn't done badly at all in this race, but GOP Rep. Shelley Moore Capito is just too strong and the state too conservative. This race has never really been on the radar, despite some late July spending by Senate Majority PAC—which just happened, coincidentally we're sure, to almost match the $250,000 Rockefeller donated to the Democratic super PAC this year. 
 
 3. South Dakota (Open D, Sen. Tim Johnson retiring) (Previous: 1) 
 
 Almost overnight, this race has risen from the dead. Make no mistake: Former GOP Gov. Mike Rounds is still the favorite here. But a coalition of outside groups has been hammering Rounds on his involvement in a visa scandal, and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee said its internal polls showed a close-enough race to prompt a late $1 million TV blitz that started this week. The National Republican Senatorial Committee is responding with $1 million of its own. But with Rounds, Democrat Rick Weiland, and former Sen. Larry Pressler—a former Republican-turned-Obama-praising independent—splitting votes, each side faces a puzzling question of where to direct its firepower. While Rounds still solidly holds control of this race, Republicans are lamenting a lack of effort from what should have been a sure-thing campaign, forcing them to spend money in an unexpected place while other races around the country remain tightly contested. 
 
 4. Louisiana (D, Sen. Mary Landrieu) (Previous: 4) 
 
 The last few months have dulled some of the shine on Landrieu's vaunted political operation. First were a series of damaging stories about billing taxpayers for private plane rides, followed by news that her campaign manager was being replaced just a month before Election Day. Both have increased the palpable sense that the Bayou State's three-term senator is an underdog in her fight against GOP Rep. Bill Cassidy. Polls show the Republican physician, whose own campaign hasn't blown anyone away, with a slight edge on Landrieu. Still, this race is headed to a Dec. 6 runoff, and it's impossible to predict what that one-month contest will look like. (For example, whether the Senate majority is still at stake would have a major effect on the campaign.) 
 
 5. Arkansas (D, Sen. Mark Pryor) (Previous: 6) 
 
 This race is swinging back the way Republicans had always planned, a battle that has less to do with two-term Sen. Pryor's personal qualities and everything to do with an unpopular national Democratic agenda. Considering how inhospitable the state has become, Pryor may actually be exceeding expectations by keeping the race within a few points all summer. The Democrat has done everything he can to paint conservative superstar Tom Cotton as out of step with Arkansas. But Cotton's military background has come in handy as voters' attention shifted to foreign policy late this year. 
 
 (RELATED: The Hotline's House Race Rankings: The 30 Districts Most Likely to Change Hands in November) 
 
 6. Alaska (D, Sen. Mark Begich) (Previous: 7) 
 
 At the end of the summer, Begich had Alaska Republicans positively alarmed. The incumbent was running possibly the best Senate campaign in the country, the GOP primary was dragging on, and Begich's backup from outside groups was compounding Republican Dan Sullivan's problems. But things changed pretty quickly once Sullivan locked up the nomination. Begich is still running a formidable campaign (though he caught serious criticism for an ad that used a murder and sexual assault case from Sullivan's time as state attorney general despite complaints from the victims' lawyer), but the polls haven't been kind to him since then—last week, the first independent live-caller polls in Alaska this year both gave Sullivan small leads. But the race isn't over, even though Sullivan appears to have the upper hand right now. Not only is polling notoriously difficult in the state, Begich has constructed an unrivaled field program stretching far into remote rural areas that could boost Alaska Native turnout. 
 
 7. Iowa (Open D, Sen. Tom Harkin retiring) (Previous: 8) 
 
 It says a lot about this race that the Bloomberg/Des Moines Register poll that showed Democrat Bruce Braley in a statistical dead heat with Republican Joni Ernst (he trailed by one point, 47 percent to 46 percent) counts as good news for Democrats. Previous surveys painted a much more pessimistic picture for the congressman. Ernst shares some flaws that have proven fatal to past GOP Senate campaigns— her suggestion that privatizing Social Security is an "option," for instance, might have been the best thing to happen to Braley in months. But the state senator has also turned one of her early weaknesses into a huge strength, collecting an incredible $6 million in the last quarter after struggling to raise money at the beginning of her campaign. This is a race where both candidates have flaws—and whoever's flaws voters judge to be worse will lose what is one of the year's tightest contests. 
 
 8. Kansas (R, Sen. Pat Roberts) (Previous: Not Ranked) 
 
 New to our list, this race is perhaps the most perplexing, because a loss by Roberts doesn't necessarily place a win in either party's column. Independent Greg Orman, who now goes head-to-head with Roberts following Democrat Chad Taylor's withdrawal from the ballot, has not said which side he would join in the Senate if elected—only that he'd likely go with whoever had the majority. Republicans have sent in a new campaign team to overhaul Roberts's sleepy operation, and GOP-aligned outside groups have slowly but surely come to his aid against the wealthy Orman, attacking the independent's business records and Democratic connections. Roberts's biggest problem remains damage sustained in his difficult primary campaign; the polls that have shown him still viewed negatively have him trailing badly, while he was at least tied in recent ones where respondents viewed him more neutrally. But, if Roberts and friends can define Orman quickly and give voters pause about the political newcomer, Roberts still stands a good chance of righting the ship. 
 
 9. Colorado (D, Sen. Mark Udall) (Previous: 9) 
 
 Just because this race stayed in the same place on the list doesn't mean nothing changed. Republican hopes in both Iowa and Colorado have been rising for months now, and Cory Gardner moved into the lead in public polls and Republican internals. Democrats say they think the race is a dead-even heat right now, and what's more, they think that makes Udall a favorite, thanks to the party's vaunted ground game in the Rocky Mountain State. That will have a slightly different twist this year, the first time that every active voter will receive a mail ballot from the state. The Denver Post, the state's largest newspaper, rolled out its endorsement of Gardner over the weekend just before voting is set to start. Udall's campaign focus on birth control and contraception has helped open a big gender gap in the race, but the Post and others say he hasn't paid enough attention to other issues. 
 
 10. North Carolina (D, Sen. Kay Hagan) (Previous: 5) 
 
 Not many would have picked Kay Hagan to be the Democrats' strongest red-state incumbent when the cycle began, or, for that matter, after a winter spending barrage from Americans for Prosperity sent her poll numbers tumbling. But the first-term senator, once lightly regarded, has clawed her way back to a small advantage in recent polls, thanks in part to a spending binge from her own campaign and allies. GOP nominee Thom Tillis even trails in his campaign's own internal survey. The Tar Heel State has become the capital of the gender gap in 2014: Even as surveys show Tillis winning men by wavelike proportions, Hagan's advantage among women has canceled that out. Now, Hagan has to prove that the revelation she skipped an Armed Services Committee hearing for a fundraiser won't knock her off stride, though it certainly put her on the defensive in last week's final debate. And she has to hope that the Libertarian candidate, pizza deliveryman Sean Haugh, doesn't bleed all of his support to Tillis between now and Election Day. 
 
 11. New Hampshire (D, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen) (Previous: 13) 
 
 Scott Brown has closed the gap, but can he finish the job? The Republican transplant from Massachusetts still trails Shaheen in most polls, though he's done well enough to attract a seven-figure investment in the race from American Crossroads. Brown's biggest impediment at this point, after heavy advertising against him from Democrats, may be that while Shaheen remains popular, more people say they dislike him than like him in poll after poll. (Many more, in the case of the most recent WMUR poll, though CNN found a smaller spread.) Even in a state like New Hampshire that tends to feel national political trends strongly, that's not a good foundation for progress. 
 
 12. Georgia (Open R, Sen. Saxby Chambliss retiring) (Previous: 11) 
 
 This race was always going to be tough for former nonprofit CEO Michelle Nunn, especially when Republicans rejected three current lawmaker candidates in their primary, making a planned insider-versus-outsider campaign more difficult. Since then, both candidates have suffered some of the most notable opposition hits of the election cycle: a leaked Nunn campaign memo that detailed her own weaknesses and David Perdue's embrace of outsourcing in a deposition, which played right into one of Nunn's main lines of attack. Republican outside groups' reluctance to spend here defending a Republican seat has played in Nunn's favor, but the NRSC is coming to town for the last few weeks. Even Nunn's strong fundraising may not be enough to defend her in this red state, though it's changing enough that she might be able to force Perdue into a January runoff by holding him under 50 percent of the vote in November. 
 
 13. Kentucky (R, Sen. Mitch McConnell) (Previous: 10) 
 
 Democratic pollster Mark Mellman was on an island through much of the early fall when his internal surveys showed Democratic client Alison Lundergan Grimes leading Republican incumbent McConnell. And then the state's automated Bluegrass Poll showed the Democrat up 2 points, 46 percent to 44 percent. McConnell's campaign quickly pointed out, correctly, that the survey was an outlier, but it still suggested Grimes's campaign wasn't dead and buried yet (despite calls from some local Democrats to shake up her organization and a string of painful-to-watch encounters with reporters). But don't get us wrong: McConnell is still the strong favorite in this race, and it would take an immense anti-incumbent wave against the Senate minority leader for that to change. 
 
 14. Michigan (Open D, Sen. Carl Levin retiring) (Previous: 12) 
 
 This is possibly the one state in the country where Democrats have been on a consistent upward trajectory all year long. Despite a lot of spending to beat down Democratic Rep. Gary Peters and raise up Republican Terri Lynn Land, two things have always stood in the GOP's way. Michigan is just more naturally Democratic-leaning than the other big Senate battlegrounds of 2014, and Land hasn't been a strong enough candidate to deal with that effectively, despite good fundraising. Meanwhile, Peters's polling lead has grown steadily as more and more voters got to know him, making him a big favorite. 
 
 15. Virginia (D, Sen. Mark Warner) (Previous: 15) 
 
 Former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie has made progress this year as he transitioned from political operative to political candidate, but Warner has held steady as a strong favorite all along. There is a small chance, though, that an "October surprise" could change all that: The Washington Post reported last weekend that Warner "discussed the possibility of several jobs, including a federal judgeship," for the daughter of a Virginia state senator "in an effort to dissuade him from quitting the evenly divided state Senate" earlier this year, according to what the former legislator's son told federal investigators. Is that enough to put Warner in jeopardy? Perhaps not. But it could nudge things a little closer than otherwise—and who knows if there might be other revelations about the episode. 
 
 16. Minnesota (D, Sen. Al Franken) (Previous: 14) 
 
 This race has been talked about for months as a potential sleeper, but three weeks from Election Day, it's still dozing. National money has completely skipped over the state, and per usual, Franken has been a fundraising machine, spending quickly as he goes, while businessman Mike McFadden has failed to make any breakthroughs. Franken has never trailed, or even come close to it, in a public poll—even one recently released by the state GOP. Franken's first race was the closest in the country, but there's going to be less drama this time around. 
 
 17. Oregon (D, Sen. Jeff Merkley) (Previous: 16) 
 
 As one columnist wrote for the Portland Oregonian, Republican Monica Wehby has hit the "trifecta" of campaign pitfalls: embarrassing personal revelations, a plagiarized website (twice), and refusals to debate or sit down with the media. The moderate pediatric neurosurgeon once had Republicans giddy about their chances of expanding the map into solidly blue Oregon, but the campaign hasn't been kind to her. Merkley's lead has never looked to be in jeopardy, and it'd take something pretty extraordinary for this race to come into contention late. 
 
 Could This Be the New Republican Stance on Same-Sex Marriage? 
 
 This article appears in the October 14, 2014 edition of NJ Daily.
– So which party will control the Senate next year? Flip a coin. That's the current assessment at FiveThirtyEight.com, which gives Democrats a 52% or 53% chance of regaining control and a 16% chance of a 50-50 tie. In the latter case, the new VP would cast tie-breaking votes. Not too long ago, most forecasts comfortably predicted that Democrats would wrest control, but things have tightened considerably. The GOP currently has a 54-46 advantage (two independents caucus with Democrats), but Democrats have an opportunity to pick up ground up because 24 of the 34 seats up for grabs are held by Republicans. Some key races, per FiveThirtyEight, the Washington Post, and NBC News: New Hampshire: GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte has been in a virtual dead heat with Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan. This race in particular "is expected to play a critical role in determining which party will hold the Senate majority next year," notes the Post. Wisconsin: Republican Ron Johnson is defending his seat in a tight race against a familiar Democratic name, former Sen. Russ Feingold. Pennsylvania: Incumbent Republican Pat Toomey, a staunch conservative, is in a close one with challenger Katie McGinty, who could get a boost if Hillary Clinton wins the state. Illinois: GOP incumbent Mark Kirk is in real danger of losing to Democratic Rep. Tammy Duckworth. (Moments like this haven't helped him.) Missouri: Democratic challenger Jason Kander has a chance of ousting Republican incumbent Roy Blunt. Nevada: Harry Reid is retiring, and Republicans hope to get a flip of their own. The GOP's Joe Heck is keeping it close with Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto.