White House Watch 
 
 White House Watch: Clinton Edges Ahead 
 
 Rasmussen Reports’ final White House Watch survey shows Democrat Hillary Clinton with a two-point lead over Republican Donald Trump with less than 24 hours to go until Election Day. Among early voters, Clinton has a double-digit lead. 
 
 The latest national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows Clinton with 45% support to Trump’s 43%. Libertarian Gary Johnson picks up four percent (4%) of the vote, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein gets two percent (2%). Three percent (3%) still like some other candidate, and four percent (4%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.) 
 
 On Friday, Trump and Clinton were tied at 44% apiece. The two major party candidates were tied most days last week. This survey has a margin of error of +/- 2.5%. 
 
 Among those who say they have already voted, Clinton leads 53% to 37%. Johnson earns three percent (3%) and Stein one percent (1%). 
 
 Just 88% of all likely voters say they have made up their minds how they will vote. Among these voters, Trump leads 52% to 43%; Johnson has four percent (4%), Stein one percent (1%). Among those who still could change their minds, it’s Clinton 40%, Trump 36%, Johnson 17% and Stein seven percent (7%). 
 
 Rasmussen Reports updates its White House Watch survey daily Monday through Friday at 8:30 am Eastern based on a three-day rolling average of 1,500 Likely U.S. Voters. 
 
 (Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook. 
 
 The survey of 1,500 Likely Voters was conducted on November 2-3 and 6, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology. 
 
 The FBI announced yesterday that it is standing by its earlier conclusion not to seek a criminal indictment of Clinton for mishandling classified information after reviewing thousands of newly obtained e-mails that she sent and received on a private e-mail server while secretary of State. Late last week, most voters considered it likely that Clinton broke the law, but they didn’t think she would be punished for it. 
 
 Trump has the support of 84% of Republicans and 11% of Democrats. He leads by eight points among voters not affiliated with either major party. Clinton gets 84% of the Democratic vote and 11% of GOP voters. 
 
 Johnson wins 10% of the unaffiliated vote but like Stein is in low single digits among voters in the two major parties. Thirteen percent (13%) of unaffiliated voters like some other candidate or are undecided. 
 
 Trump has a slight lead among men; Clinton is ahead among women. 
 
 Clinton has a sizable lead among those under 40. Older voters still prefer Trump. 
 
 Trump remains well ahead among white voters, but Clinton has dramatically larger advantages among blacks and other minority voters. 
 
 We’ll tell you at 10:30 this morning which presidential candidate voters think is most likely to win tomorrow. 
 
 Most voters consider the allegations of sexual harassment by multiple women against Trump important to their vote, but most also say the charges haven't affected how they will vote. 
 
 Voters continue to strongly believe that the media is more interested in controversy than in the issues when it comes to the presidential race. As in previous presidential election cycles, voters expect reporters covering political campaigns to help their favorite candidates, and 52% said in July that they were favoring Clinton. Twenty-seven percent (27%) said they were helping Trump instead. 
 
 Seventy percent (70%) of voters who support Clinton in the election say they’d rather vote for President Obama if it was a legal option. Fifty-one percent (51%) of GOP voters still think top Republican leaders don’t want Trump to be president. 
 
 Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only. 
 
 Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily email update (it’s free) or follow us on Twitter or Facebook. Let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news. ||||| By Sarah Dutton, Jennifer De Pinto, Fred Backus and Anthony Salvanto 
 
 With the first debate less than two weeks away, Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are in a tight race for the presidency nationally. Clinton has just a 2-point edge in a two-way match-up among likely voters. The race is tied when third party candidates are included. Among the broader electorate of registered voters, Clinton leads Trump by five points. 
 
 One disadvantage for Clinton is diminished voter enthusiasm. Democrats are less enthusiastic about voting now than they were in August. 
 
 More than four in 10 voters think each presidential candidate should release more of their medical records. This poll was conducted before either candidate’s recent release of medical information. 
 
 With Election Day just under eight weeks away, the race for President nationwide is tight. In a two-way match-up, Clinton has a slim edge over Trump, 46 - 44 percent among likely voters who support or lean toward a candidate. 
 
 This is the first national poll in which CBS News and the New York Times have measured the presidential race among likely voters. The measure for likely voters takes into account voters’ reported intent to vote, enthusiasm about voting and other factors that historically affect an individual’s decision to vote. 
 
 Among the broader electorate – registered voters nationwide – Clinton leads Trump by five points, 46 percent to 41 percent. 
 
 When third party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein are factored in, the race is tied, with Trump and Clinton each getting the backing of 42 percent of likely voters. While Clinton and Trump retain most of their support when Johnson and Stein are included, slightly more of Clinton’s supporters move to Johnson or Stein, compared to Trump’s supporters. 
 
 Among registered voters, Clinton has a slight edge over Trump in a four-way contest. 
 
 Most Clinton and Trump voters say they’re sticking with their candidate. Ninety-two percent of Trump voters and 94 percent of Clinton voters say their choice is set. Few say they will change their minds before the election. 
 
 Enthusiasm and Strength of Support 
 
 Thirty-six percent of registered voters overall now say they are very enthusiastic about voting, the same as a month ago. But one disadvantage for Clinton is that enthusiasm among Republican voters has remained steady, while enthusiasm among Democrats has dropped. Among Democratic voters, the percentage that is at least somewhat enthusiastic has dropped from 77 percent in August to 64 percent today, while the percentage of Democrats who are very enthusiastic has dropped nine points – from 47 percent to 38 percent. 
 
 More specifically, Trump supporters are more excited about voting than Clinton’s supporters are. Forty-five percent of Trump voters say they are very enthusiastic about voting, compared to 36 percent of Clinton backers who feel that way. 
 
 Just over half of each candidate’s voters say they strongly support their candidate, but for many, support is not so strong - including a quarter who are voting for their candidate because they dislike the other choice. 
 
 Who’s Supporting Whom? 
 
 Trump now garners support from just under nine in ten Republican voters, as does Clinton among Democrats. 
 
 A look at the candidates’ demographic support also illustrates why the race is close. A gender gap remains: Trump has a double-digit lead over Clinton among men, while Clinton is ahead by a similar margin among women. Trump continues to struggle with African American voters but has an advantage over Clinton among whites. 
 
 Whites without a college degree are strong supporters of Trump (58 percent back him), while Clinton leads Trump among white voters with a college degree. 
 
 Clinton is ahead of Trump among voters under 30 but she is not getting the level of support Barack Obama received in 2012. 48 percent of young voters are currently backing her, while Obama won 60 percent of the young vote in 2012. Only 29 percent of young voters are supporting Trump, but 21 percent say they’ll vote for someone else or won’t vote. 
 
 The Candidates’ Medical Records 
 
 After Clinton’s bout of illness at the 9/11 ceremony and the announcement of her pneumonia diagnosis, more than four in 10 voters think each presidential candidate should release more of their medical records. About as many think the candidates have released enough information about their health already. The poll was conducted before either candidate’s recent release of medical records. 
 
 Over half of Republicans think Clinton should release more medical records concerning her health, but 52 percent think their nominee has released enough information already. Among Democrats, most (53 percent) say Clinton has released enough health information already, but want Trump to release more of his records. 
 
 This poll was conducted by telephone September 9-13, 2016 among a random sample of 1,753 adults nationwide, including 1,433 registered voters. Data collection was conducted on behalf of CBS News and The New York Times by SSRS of Media, PA. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. 
 
 The poll employed a random digit dial methodology. For the landline sample, a respondent was randomly selected from all adults in the household. For the cell sample, interviews were conducted with the person who answered the phone. 
 
 Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish using live interviewers. 
 
 The data have been weighted to reflect U.S. Census figures on demographic variables. 
 
 The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample and the sample of registered voters could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher and is available by request. The margin of error includes the effects of standard weighting procedures which enlarge sampling error slightly. 
 
 The sample of likely voters is modeled among registered voters (N=1,433), assigning each respondent a probability of voting based on their responses. The margin of error for the sample of likely voters is plus or minus three points. 
 
 This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls. ||||| Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton leads Republican Donald Trump by six points among likely voters heading into the first presidential debate on Monday, according to a brand-new national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll. 
 
 The survey – which was conducted after Clinton’s return to the campaign trail following her bout with pneumonia – shows a bigger advantage for the secretary of state than did polls taken during the heightened scrutiny of her health. 
 
 It also finds that Clinton is running nearly even with Trump when it comes to voter enthusiasm. 
 
 “Despite arguably the worst few weeks of her candidacy, the fundamentals still point toward a Hillary Clinton victory,” says Democratic pollster Fred Yang of Hart Research Associates, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies. 
 
 McInturff adds, “Donald Trump has closed the margin since August, but as we head towards the debate, still needs to push this campaign closer. The good news for him is the electorate narrowly agrees with him that America has lost ground and wants to see a change in direction.” 
 
 In a four-way horserace, Clinton gets support from 43 percent of likely voters and Trump gets 37 percent, while Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson is at 9 percent and the Green Party’s Jill Stein is at 3 percent. 
 
 In a head-to-head matchup without those third-party candidates, Clinton’s advantage expands to seven points, 48 percent to 41 percent. This is the NBC/WSJ poll’s first general-election poll of likely voters in the 2016 race. 
 
 Among the broader electorate of all registered voters, Clinton is ahead of Trump by five points in the four-way contest, 42 percent to 37 percent – down from Clinton’s nine-point lead in August. 
 
 And in a two-way race, Clinton’s edge among registered voters is seven points, 48 percent to 41 percent – also down from nine points in August. 
 
 Here, Clinton has the advantage with African American voters (81 percent to 7 percent), women (51 percent to 37 percent) and those ages 18-34 (50 percent to 34 percent), while Trump is ahead among men (46 percent to 44 percent) and whites (49 percent to 41 percent). 
 
 But the poll reveals a familiar pattern among white registered voters: Those without a college degree break for Trump, 53 percent to 35 percent, while those with college degrees tilt in Clinton’s favor, 49 percent to 43 percent. 
 
 Clinton runs nearly even with Trump on voter enthusiasm 
 
 Seventy-eight percent of Trump’s voters say they are highly interested in November’s general election – registering either a “9” or “10” on a 10-point scale – versus 75 percent of Clinton voters who say that. 
 
 What’s more, 68 percent of Clinton voters respond that they will “definitely” vote for her, compared with 66 percent of Trump supporters who say that about the New York businessman. 
 
 And 50 percent of Clinton voters say their vote is more for Clinton, while 44 percent of them say their vote is more being against Trump. 
 
 That’s compared with 41 percent of Trump voters who say their vote is more for Trump, versus 51 percent who say it’s more being against Clinton. 
 
 Many voters still want change 
 
 Despite Clinton’s lead in the NBC/WSJ poll, Trump’s advantage is that many voters still want change. 
 
 By a 49 percent-to-47 percent margin, registered voters say they prefer a president who will bring major changes to the way the government operates, even if those changes might be unpredictable – though that margin is less than it was back in July. 
 
 And 48 percent of voters agree with Trump’s statement that America is losing ground and the economy hasn’t improved enough. That’s compared with 45 percent who agree with the Clinton message that the country is making progress and the economy has come back. 
 
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 Trump holds the advantage on economy, Clinton on all other issues 
 
 Asked which candidate is better on the economy, 46 percent of registered voters say Trump, while 41 percent pick Clinton. 
 
 But Clinton leads on every other issue the poll tested – on being in charge of nuclear weapons (51 percent to 25 percent), on being a good commander-in-chief (48 percent to 33 percent), on dealing with immigration (50 percent to 39 percent) and on terrorism and homeland security (44 percent to 43 percent). 
 
 Clinton also holds the advantage over Trump on being knowledgeable and experienced enough to handle the presidency (60 percent to 23 percent) and on having the right temperament to be president (56 percent to 23 percent). 
 
 But Trump holds the edge on being honest and straightforward (41 percent say Trump is better here, versus 31 percent who say Clinton is). 
 
 Obama’s job rating remains above 50 percent 
 
 The poll also finds President Barack Obama’s job-approval rating at 52 percent – unchanged from last month. Indeed, this is the fifth-straight NBC/WSJ poll in which his job rating has been above 50 percent. 
 
 And the poll shows Democrats enjoying a three-point advantage on which party should control Congress – 48 percent of registered voters prefer Democrats in charge, while 45 percent want the GOP in control. 
 
 Democrats held a four-point advantage on this question a month ago. 
 
 The NBC/WSJ poll was conducted Sept. 16-19 of 1,000 registered voters – by both landline and cell phone interviews – and it has an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points. Among the 922 likely voters the survey interviewed, the margin of error is plus-minus 3.2 percentage points. ||||| White House Watch 
 
 White House Watch: Trump 42%, Clinton 40%, Johnson 7%, Stein 2% 
 
 Are concerns over Hillary Clinton’s health changing the equation? Donald Trump has once again edged ahead of Clinton after trailing her by four points a week ago. 
 
 The latest Rasmussen Reports weekly White House Watch national telephone and online survey shows Trump with 42% support to Clinton’s 40%. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson gets seven percent (7%) of the vote, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein earns two percent (2%). Another two percent (2%) like some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.) 
 
 Clinton led Trump 43% to 39% a week ago and has trailed the GOP nominee only one time since mid-July.Still, the race has remained a close one for months, within or just outside our survey’s +/- 3 margin of error. 
 
 Clinton earns 74% support among Democratic voters, while 76% of Republicans favor Trump. Trump has pulled slightly ahead of Clinton 36% to 32% among voters not affiliated with either political party. 
 
 Johnson has the support of six percent (6%) of Republicans, two percent (2%) of Democrats and 15% of unaffiliateds. Stein earns just one percent (1%) support from GOP voters, two percent (2%) of Democrats and three percent (3%) of unaffiliated voters. 
 
 (Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook. 
 
 The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on September 12-13, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology. 
 
 [Rasmussen Reports analysts Amy Holmes and Fran Coombs are available for interested media. Please call 732-776-9777 ext. 205 for interviews.] 
 
 This latest White House Watch survey was taken after Clinton’s fainting spell at Sunday’s 9/11 ceremony in New York City and after her campaign’s release of a statement saying she is suffering from pneumonia. Democrats aren’t worried about Clinton’s health, but most other voters feel she may not be physically up to the job. 
 
 This week's survey finds Trump with a six-point advantage among men and in a near tie among women. 
 
 Clinton remains ahead among those under 40 but trails among older voters. 
 
 The Democratic nominee is the choice of 73% of liberal voters and holds a 45% to 31% advantage among moderates. Seventy-two percent (72%) of conservatives prefer Trump. 
 
 Voters strongly agree that a candidate’s health is an important voting issue, but while most Republicans and unaffiliated voters think the state of Clinton’s health is worth exploring, the majority of Democrats disagree. 
 
 Americans continue to question the country’s safety from terrorism and are skeptical of the government’s ability to prevent domestic terror attacks in the future. Voters tend to think Trump would do a better job than Clinton protecting the country from terrorists. 
 
 An overwhelming majority of voters continues to believe politicians don’t keep their campaign promises and are even more convinced it’s because they’ll say whatever it takes to get elected. 
 
 The percentage of all voters who consider a candidate’s religious faith important to their vote continues to decline. Voters put even less stock into a candidate’s appearance or racial background. 
 
 Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only. 
 
 Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily email update (it’s free) or follow us on Twitter or Facebook. Let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.
– The race for the White House does indeed appear to be tightening. A new CBS/New York Times national poll shows Hillary Clinton with just a 2-point lead over Donald Trump among likely voters, 46% to 44% in a two-candidate race, with a 3-point margin of error. With Gary Johnson and Jill Stein in the mix, Clinton and Trump are neck-and-neck at 42% each. Among all registered voters, Clinton fares better. She has a 5-point lead over Trump, 46% to 41%, in a two-candidate race, and a 2-point lead, 41% to 39%, with Johnson and Stein included. But her lead is still diminshed, and her recent bout with pneumonia may have played a role. Just 38% of Democrats said they were excited about voting in the poll of 1,753 from Friday to Tuesday, down from 47% in August. That's compared to 64% of Republicans, down from 77%, though nearly all Trump and Clinton supporters said their minds were made up. "Not since Trump's post-Republican National Convention bump has the GOP nominee seemed to be in such a strong position," though he's "still the underdog," writes David A. Graham at the Atlantic. A Quinnipiac University national poll of 960 likely voters shows Clinton with a 5-point lead over Trump in a head-to-head battle, and a 2-point lead in a four-candidate race with a 3-point margin of error, per Politico.