On stage next to a mechanical bull at a country bar in Las Vegas, Newt Gingrich made his pitch on the eve of today's GOP presidential caucuses that he's the right Republican to take on President Barack Obama and that his GOP foe Mitt Romney is "Obama-lite." 
 
 Six hours later, Romney rallied his supporters in a parking lot outside a pizza joint in Henderson, promising the evening crowd he would revive the economy and restore American principles if elected. 
 
 About the same time, Rep. Ron Paul of Texas signed autographs in a Las Vegas gun store, mobbed by political fans as muffled shots sounded from its shooting range. 
 
 "He is like a rock star," said Steve Dusterwald, beaming after Paul signed a copy of his 2008 book, "The Revolution: A Manifesto." "But instead of doing this for himself, he's doing it for everyone else." 
 
 Rick Santorum, the odd man out, had already moved on from Nevada. He campaigned Friday in Missouri, which holds a nonbinding primary next Tuesday, a beauty contest he hopes to win. 
 
 Today's caucuses are the first presidential vote in the West after the contenders split the first four early states. The mixed results exposed a division in the GOP electorate as conservatives divided support among a rotating cast of the front-runner Romney's foes, most of whom quickly disappeared. 
 
 In Nevada, Romney is the heavy favorite to win, a victory that would award him three states, including New Hampshire and Florida, and help speed his path toward the GOP nomination. 
 
 The key factors to watch for in today's caucuses are whether Romney, a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, holds his strong Mormon voting bloc and makes gains to equal or surpass his 51 percent finish four years ago when he won the GOP caucuses here. 
 
 A survey commissioned by the Las Vegas Review-Journal and 8NewsNow of Republicans who said they planned to caucus, showed Romney with 45 percent support compared with 25 percent for Gingrich, 11 percent for Santorum and 9 percent for Paul, who usually outperforms polls. 
 
 Paul finished second in the GOP caucuses here four years ago with 14 percent of the vote. He's expected to do better after expanding his ground troops and organization in the Silver State. 
 
 The wild card is whether Gingrich will win enough support from tea party voters and conservatives who don't like Romney to beat Paul for second place. The former House speaker may lose some conservatives to Santorum, who is staying in the race in hopes Gingrich will fade after Nevada. 
 
 On Friday, Gingrich projected confidence as he roused the morning crowd of 200 supporters inside Stoney's Rockin' Country bar, where the smell of beer and cigarettes hung in the air. 
 
 "We can win this one," Gingrich said to cheers. "We need your help tomorrow." 
 
 Romney appeared self-assured in his final pre-caucus rally Friday, not mentioning his GOP opponents and instead delivering a lofty speech about changing the direction of America. 
 
 "I want to make sure America remains the shining city on the hill," Romney said, invoking the late President Ronald Reagan, a GOP icon, as he spoke to about 400 supporters. 
 
 "I want to restore to America the values that made us the great nation that we are," he added, citing the U.S. Constitution and the Declaration of Independence as the guide. "If I'm president, I will do everything in my power to abide by those principles." 
 
 Gingrich, a former House speaker, made the case that he's the best GOP candidate because of his experience in balancing the budget in the 1990s several times while working with Democratic President Bill Clinton. 
 
 Gingrich also helped the GOP take over the House in 1994. 
 
 Gingrich touted a new video his campaign has released featuring George Soros, a liberal billionaire investor, comparing Obama and Romney and saying "there's no real difference." 
 
 From gun control to health care, Gingrich said, Obama and Romney have some of the same ideas. 
 
 "It isn't good enough for the Republican Party to nominate 'Obama-lite,' " he said, winning cheers from the audience. "I don't believe the Republican Party wants a George Soros-approved candidate." 
 
 Gingrich said that if elected, he would repeal Obama's health care plan and immediately sign a series of executive orders reversing much of what Obama had done in three years. 
 
 He said he would cut regulations and corporate taxes and offer people the choice of paying a flat 15 percent income tax. He called it his "Romney" tax plan because his GOP opponent paid about the same rate of taxes in the past couple of years. 
 
 Friday night, Gingrich wooed a religious group, preaching to the choir -- and about 1,000 other people -- at the International Church of Las Vegas following a Prayer for America event. 
 
 Gingrich called the Constitution and Declaration of Independence sacred documents. 
 
 "The key central point of American exceptionalism is endowed by our creator," he said to applause. 
 
 Gingrich said freedom of religion provided for in the First Amendment is under attack, including by last week's mandate from the Obama administration that requires religious organizations that provide services to the community to cover birth control for their employees' insurance. 
 
 "Obama declared war on the Catholic Church," he said. "He requires Catholics to stop being Catholics in order to serve people. This is a direct war on freedom of religion." 
 
 Nevadans aren't used to caucuses, which are neighborhood political party meetings, and so there might be a bit of chaos today as Republicans gather at their precincts to elect delegates to the county convention, discuss the party platform and then vote for their favorite presidential candidate. 
 
 Those with last-minute questions about caucusing in Clark County can call the party at 258-9184. Photo identification will be required for participants. 
 
 In Clark County, the doors open at 8 a.m. at 38 sites, mostly schools and community centers, and the caucus meetings begin at 9 a.m. They should wrap up by 3 p.m. at the latest. 
 
 A special sundown caucus is being held at the Adelson Educational Campus for members of the Jewish faith and Seventh-day Adventists, who hold Saturdays sacred. The doors open at 6 p.m., and the caucus meeting begins at 7 p.m. and will include only a presidential vote. 
 
 The late meeting will delay the official results. The Nevada Republican Party said it plans to release the results from the state's other 16 counties at 5 p.m. via its Twitter feed, @nvgop. But Clark County, where 60 percent of the state's Republicans live, doesn't plan to release its results until after the post-sundown caucus is complete, perhaps about 8 p.m. 
 
 Reporters Lawrence Mower and Doug McMurdo contributed to this report. Contact reporter Laura Myers at lmyers@reviewjournal.com or 702-387-2919. Follow her on Twitter @lmyerslvrj. ||||| ATLANTA -- Well, that was unusually inconclusive. 
 
 Or was it? 
 
 Yes, it was. 
 
 
 
 1) Mitt Romney has the same rural problem that Barack Obama does. Here's the map of Ohio from last night's primary. 
 
 Here's the map from 2008, an unusually good Democratic year. 
 
 
 
 Both candidates figured out a pretty simple lesson: Get more votes where people live, don't lose too many votes where people don't. But a county map of the primary so far, even if it excludes Missouri, reveals only urban and suburban areas breaking for Romney. The rural areas that build up any eventual nominee's margin -- all for the other guys. 
 
 
 
 2) Ron Paul has hit his ceiling. The pre-Tuesday campaign schedule for the Paul campaign pointed reporters to the states where he might win. Idaho's low-attendence caucus. Alaska's low-attendence caucus. North Dakota's low-attendence caucus, where Paul spent election night. In Alaska, where Paul got 2,004 caucus votes in 2008, he drew more than 1,000 to two stump speeches. He had the state to himself. And... he edged up to 3,175 votes, coming in third place. 
 
 Yes, the "win"-driven coverage of the primary is a little silly. Paul won delegates in all of yesterday's caucus states, Vermont, and Virgina. But he's now averaged around 11 percent of the vote in primaries and 21 percent and caucuses. As he stays in, and as, in April, we move to a winner-take-all process, he's hitting the natural limits of his support. In Missouri, Santorum could win a one-on-one beauty contest with Romney, with Paul taking votes on the side. In Virginia, Paul could only win 40 percent and one district. 
 
 
 
 3) Newt Gingrich owns the deep south. He won all but three counties in Georgia, just as he'd won all but three counties in South Carolina. When Florida voted, he won all but three counties in the panhandle, losing two of them (Oskaloosa and Bay) by less than 100 votes. This is one of Mitt Romney's best prospects for March: Gingrich is in a good position to win Alabama and Mississippi next week, further muddling the "Santorum, conservative champion!" story. 
 
 
 
 4) Mitt Romney's a good closer. The frontrunner's strategy from state to state looks a bit like Galactus's strategy for planet-devouring: Move in, absorb everything. Restore Our Future is his Silver Surfer, softening up the terrain and warning of doom. So in Tennessee, Romney spent money late, made one appearance, and won voters who decided in the last few days, 30-28 -- he lost the state overall, 37-28. In Ohio, where he defeated Rick Santorum by one point, he won last-few-day-voters 43-37. But Santorum had once led by around 10 points in an average of polls. When Romney needs to dispatch Santorum, or he needs to cut into his delegate advantage -- as long as Newt Gingrich is in the race, he can do it. 
 
 5) Caucuses reveal that the base is cold on Romney. Here are four numbers: 37%, 45%, 60%, 41%. Here are four more: 24%, 32%, 35%, 17%. Those are the numbers for Rommey, respectively, from the 2008 caucuses in North Dakota, Alaska, Colorado, and Minnesota, and from the 2012 caucuses in the same states.
– The polls this week were right: Mitt Romney easily won the Nevada caucuses tonight, just as he did four years ago, report the AP and CNN. That's two straight victories for the frontrunner. The more interesting battle was that for second place: Romney took 42%, but Ron Paul at times looked poised to trounce Newt Gingrich. Gingrich prevailed in the final tally with 25%, Paul with 18%, and Rick Santorum had 13%. As he did after his South Carolina win, Romney addressed supporters and put the focus on the White House rather than his rivals."President Obama seems to believe America's role as leader in the world is a thing of the past," he said. "I believe the 21st century will be and must be an American century." Next up after tonight: Tuesday night caucuses in Minnesota and Colorado, and a primary in Missouri. (No delegates will be awarded in the Missouri contest, and Gingrich isn't even on the ballot, notes the Washington Post.)