Looking for news you can trust? 
 
 Subscribe to our free newsletters. 
 
 
 
 
 
 On Tuesday, after 13 debates, five different front-runners, and one unforgettable Gloria Allred press conference, the GOP presidential race will finally take its first, tentative steps toward clarity when upwards of 100,000 Iowans participate in the first-in-the-nation caucuses. A win on Tuesday isn’t exactly a ticket to the White House—no Republican caucus victor has gone on to win the presidency in the modern era—but a poor performance will almost certainly mark the end of the road for candidates like Rep. Michele Bachmann and former Sen. Rick Santorum. 
 
 Here’s how it works: As in any election, each voter is assigned to a precinct. A city like Waterloo would have multiple precincts; a flyspeck town in northwest Iowa might have just one (there are 1,774 in all). To participate, you show up at 7 p.m. and, after listening to speeches from fellow precinct members on behalf of their favored candidates, cast your ballot. Often, the speakers are respected community leaders whose words carry some weight; revered former Iowa State wrestling coach Jim Gibbons, for instance, told me he might speak on behalf of Santorum at his precinct. Democratic caucuses usually entail multiple ballots, but Republicans will vote just once. 
 
 So what should you watch for? Here’s a quick look at where the candidates stand, and how they’ve spent their final week before the big vote: 
 
 Rick Santorum‘s final pitch to Iowa voters on Monday centered, as you would expect, on social issues. In Polk City, a farming community north of Des Moines, he was joined by 13 of the 21 Duggars—stars of the TLC reality show 19 Kids and Counting, and celebrities among conservative home-schoolers. It was folks like the Duggars who pushed Mike Huckabee over the top in 2008. By the numbers: Number of Iowa counties visited, out of 99: 99; number of Pizza Ranch franchises visited: 33; number of sleeves on his sweater of choice: 0; number of members of his immediate family, out of 9, who do not belong to the National Rifle Association: 1; percentage of supporters who say they will definitely show up for their caucus: 76. 
 
 As my colleague Gavin Aronsen reports, Ron Paul’s path to victory depends heavily on an army of college activists who flew into the Hawkeye State for winter break. Over the last few weeks, GOP opponents have hit him hard for publishing a racist and anti-Semitic newsletter in the late ’80s and early ’90s, but he’s managed to climb toward the top of the polls and has saturated the airwaves with flashy ads touting his pro-life credentials and Chevy-truck-style consistency. By the numbers: Number of babies delivered, according to his campaign literature: ~4,000; number of volunteers his campaign paid to house at the YMCA camp in Boone: ~500; percent decrease in favorability ratings over the final week of the campaign, according to Public Polling Polling: 21. 
 
 After her triumph at the Ames Straw Poll in August, Michele Bachmann looked like a serious contender for the Republican nomination, but her campaign has since fallen apart. Bachmann’s top Iowa aide switched his support to Ron Paul late last week in a move that underscored just how dysfunctional her organization in the state was. She says she’s in the race for the long haul, but barring a miracle, she’s pretty much done. By the numbers: Percentage of Iowa Republicans who said they’d caucus for her on July 10: 25; percentage of Iowa Republicans who said the same on January 1: 7; salary paid to former top strategist Ed Rollins, who now says he never would have worked for her if had just Googled her: $90,000. 
 
 Rick Perry entered the race in August as a cocky, angry, anti-Obama candidate, but in the last week before the caucuses he’s resorted to taking shots—and cutting Jeopardy!-style radio ads—blasting Rick Santorum for helping secure funding for a teapot museum in North Carolina. He’s also more or less abandoned his original pitch as an economic miracle worker, and refocused his campaign around cracking down on gay and reproductive rights. Oh, and he still thinks gay sex should be illegal. By the numbers: Number of YouTube “dislikes” for his web ad, “Strong,” which lamented the end of Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell: 731,755; number of likes: 24,813; points fallen in the polls in Iowa since August 21: 41. 
 
 
 
 For a moment—a brief, eminently fascinating moment—Newt Gingrich looked like he might be the next Republican nominee. But after being swamped by negative ads from Ron Paul and a pro-Romney super-PAC, Gingrich has fallen back to earth hard. In Atlantic, Iowa, he was put on the defensive by his own supporters, who were concerned about his past support for global warming legislation, and his quasi-lobbying work for Freddie Mac (among other things). Gingrich is hoping outrage over a nonexistent EPA dust-regulation campaign will translate into support at the caucuses. By the numbers: Percentage points dropped from mid-December high-water mark: 20; number of days in between the launch of his campaign and the opening of a campaign office in Iowa: 183; date on which he told ABC’s Jake Tapper “I’m going to be the nominee”: January December 1. 
 
 And then there’s Mitt Romney, who stands to all but lock up the Republican nomination with a win tonight. He’d be in pretty good shape with a loss, too, provided he at least outperforms a couple of key rivals. After initially keeping his distance from Iowa, the former Massachusetts governor poured considerable resources into the state over the last month of the race and plans to spend Tuesday night in Des Moines—a sign he expects to do well. As one Romney aide told Politico’s Roger Simon, “Iowa is about eliminating Gingrich and Perry without us having to spend a lot of money to do so.” By the numbers: Number of different Republican rivals he has trailed in the polls in Iowa at some point or another: 5; amount, in millions, spent by his super-PAC on ads targeting Newt Gingrich: $3.5; number of staffers it takes to hold his chair in place; 1; number of chemicals it takes to hold his hair in place: 0; percentage of Iowa voters who said they’d vote for him on July 11: 18; percent who said they’d vote for him on January 1: 18. 
 
 How to watch: Check this space, and Twitter, for updates. Gavin Aronsen (@garonsen) and I (@timothypmurphy) will be reporting from Iowa all day. By 10 p.m., we should have some idea of how the night will turn out. ||||| Iowa became the stage for electrifying political theater on caucus eve as six GOP presidential candidates tried to make a last-minute connection with voters — all while hounded by hundreds of reporters who documented their every move in mini messages on Twitter. 
 
 An expected 115,000 to 120,000 Iowa Republicans will record their choices tonight, GOP strategist John Stineman of West Des Moines estimated. 
 
 The race has shaped up as a three-way dead heat among Mitt Romney, Ron Paul and Rick Santorum, according to The Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll, conducted last week. But in a sign of how unsettled the race remains, 41 percent of those who have a first choice could still be persuaded to change their minds, the poll found. 
 
 After 354 days of campaigning and more than 900 events, from the sweaty heat of the Iowa State Fair to skin-biting wind on Monday, the candidates are making their final arguments. 
 
 They spent the final full day of campaigning before the first-in-the-nation vote in one last-gasp scramble, traveling from town to city. 
 
 The words “mob scene” cropped up on Twitter throughout the day Monday to describe campaign events, but it was all relative. 
 
 “Callista and I are overwhelmed by the turnout this week,” tweeted Newt Gingrich, who drew 125 in Independence, then 225 in Walford. 
 
 A tiny cafe in Polk City, with a 49-person capacity, was quickly jammed for Santorum. 
 
 “Our woman in IA, @ShushWalshe reports huge crowds at Santorum events. Like body-surfing huge. Get crushed in stampede huge,” ABC News’ @AmyEWalter tweeted. 
 
 About 200 people were there, inside and outside, with a heavy load of reporters. 
 
 At a supply warehouse in Dubuque, 600 people were treated to “Eye of the Tiger” and “Born Free” as they waited to see Romney. And before more than 600 in Marion, an upbeat Romney declared: “We’re going to win this thing.” (Aides said later he was referring to the nomination.) 
 
 The frenetic politicking will continue yet tonight. All 4,000 to 6,000 caucusgoers in Black Hawk County will gather under one roof — inside the UNI-Dome, Black Hawk County GOP Chairman Mac McDonald said. They will be divided into precincts to vote, with cameras from Fox News and CNN watching, he said. At least two candidates — Michele Bachmann and Gingrich — are expected to make personal pitches there about 6 p.m. 
 
 Here’s how the final day before the Iowa caucuses went down, per Twitter and Des Moines Register reporters on the scene: 
 
 MITT ROMNEY 
 
 On the road from Davenport (crowd of more than 300), one of Romney’s sons posted a Twitter photo of his father on the campaign bus. 
 
 “One of the vents on the bus is blowing cold air, so the mittster is duct taping it closed. Typical dad,” Tagg Romney tweeted. 
 
 Romney held rallies in four cities Monday, more campaigning than he’s done in Iowa on a single day since the 2008 cycle. The leader in the Iowa Poll is banking on his electability as a key to success. 
 
 Ron Breitbach, 51, of Dubuque, who caucused for Romney in 2008 and plans to do so again tonight, said: “He’s a problem-solver. He’s a leader.” 
 
 Breitbach, who owns a golf course and sports center, added: “He’s had so much success, and that’s what we need — we need someone with success for people to rally around.” 
 
 RON PAUL 
 
 Paul, who tweaks reporters for discounting him, descended into their lair Monday, the Marriott in downtown Des Moines. 
 
 “Ron Paul no fool,” tweeted @RogerPolitico. “Holding rally in hotel where 400 reporters are staying. I think all of them are here.” 
 
 Some of the bigfoots: Maggie Haberman of Politico, Joe Klein of Time, Soledad O’Brien of CNN, Dan Balz of the Washington Post, Carl Cameron of Fox News and Chris Matthews of MSNBC. 
 
 Hundreds of people packed the hotel meeting room. Paul also drew 200 in Cedar Falls and 300 in Cedar Rapids. 
 
 The TV camera crews beelined to the men in the Des Moines audience with heavy facial hair, tattoos and nose rings. 
 
 Aaron Lea, a 34-year-old painter from Des Moines with a grunge look, was pressed for interviews by three news agencies within minutes. 
 
 “You wouldn’t see people like this at a Bachmann or Mitt Romney rally, so it makes it a point of interest,” said Lea, an independent who will register as a Republican at the caucuses. 
 
 The Huffington Post’s @mlcalderone: “Sign at Paul’s Marriott event: ‘A Ron Paul win will discredit the mainstream media.’ ” 
 
 Paul, a libertarian-leaning Texas congressman in second place in the Iowa Poll, often starts out his speeches by attacking the sacred cow of military spending and predicts a looming global financial collapse. On Monday, he boiled down his message to one word: liberty. 
 
 RICK SANTORUM 
 
 Santorum, a Christian conservative from Pennsylvania, said at the Reising Sun Cafe in Polk City that he has raised more money in the last few days than he did in the last few months. 
 
 The Register’s latest Iowa Poll shows Santorum in third place, and rising. 
 
 Glenn Larson, a retired insurance underwriter from Clive, said Santorum represents his values: opposed to abortion, in favor of balancing the budget. 
 
 “I think he has been neglected and pushed aside by the liberal news media because they think he can beat Obama. They don’t want him to win,” Larson said. 
 
 Santorum knocked his rivals a bit. 
 
 “We aren’t looking for a chief executive officer. We’re looking for a commander in chief,” said @JimAcostaCNN, who caught the jab at Romney. 
 
 A bus with “Santorum for President” on the side appeared on the trail Monday. 
 
 “Chuck Laudner says when Rick Santorum saw the big bus festooned with his name … he said ‘I’m not paying for THAT!’ ” the Los Angeles Times’ @RAbcarian said. 
 
 The RV is just on loan, driven by the Duggar family of Arkansas, anti-abortion activists with 19 children. 
 
 Santorum drew more than 200 at the Pizza Ranch in Boone, including Fox News’ Bret Baier. Later, 400 people chanted “We pick Rick!” at an Altoona Pizza Ranch. 
 
 “Young woman just fainted at Santorum event it is so crowded,” reported the Register’s @WilliamPetroski from Boone. 
 
 NEWT GINGRICH 
 
 Gingrich, who last month declared certain victory in the nominating contest, talked again Monday about what he said was the unfair influence of negative ads in Iowa, and sounded a note of caucus defeat. 
 
 “Newt on IA: ‘I don’t think I’m going to win … I think the volume of negativity has done enough damage,’ ” @SarahH_CBSNJ tweeted as Gingrich talked to reporters in Independence. 
 
 Gingrich, a former U.S. House speaker, said: “It has nothing to do with governing America and solving our problems. It has everything to do with a very cheap and I think a very, very destructive model of politics, which is part of why Washington is sick today.” 
 
 At a later stop, he called the comment a mistake in wording, and pinned his hopes on the voters who say they could still change their minds. 
 
 Ed Larson and his wife, Janet, shook Gingrich’s hand, but they said they were not sure how they would caucus, since much of what happens depends on the consensus of their neighbors. 
 
 The Larsons downplayed Gingrich’s fourth-place ranking in the Iowa Poll. “It isn’t a concern because the polls are media-generated, and it changes every hour,” Ed Larson said. 
 
 RICK PERRY 
 
 “Perry press corp traveling 375 miles on the last day of the Iowa bus tour, ending the day with the stop we’ve all waited for — Perry, IA,” tweeted ABC News’ @ArletteSaenz. 
 
 When the Texas governor was introduced in Sioux City as the “next governor of the United States,” the crowd laughed. That got tweets with #oops hashtags. 
 
 Perry, who is fifth in the Iowa Poll, made a final plea to the crowd of 100: Decide by conscience, not poll numbers. 
 
 “A voter asks Perry what she can do to make him seem more electable in next 30 hours,” the Register’s @JoshHafner tweeted. “Perry says #iacaucus is just ‘mile one’ in a marathon.” 
 
 Perry said his campaign has the organizational endurance to win the nomination. 
 
 Jan Hansen, a teacher from Le Mars, decided in Sioux City that she’s caucusing for him. “I hear people saying all the time we need to choose the candidate that we feel is the most electable,” she said. “Vote your heart. That’s what he said.” 
 
 MICHELE BACHMANN 
 
 “Vote for a strong Iowa woman!” Bachmann told one backer amid a crush of people at Paula’s, a small restaurant in West Des Moines’ Valley Junction. 
 
 “You got a camera? We should take a picture. And then go home and Facebook it. Tell everybody to come out and caucus,” the Minnesota congresswoman said. 
 
 The crowd was in the dozens rather than hundreds. A team of 22 juniors and seniors from Blake School in Minneapolis was on a school-sponsored trip to witness the caucuses. 
 
 “Mostly Obama fans. No love for hometown Bachmann,” messaged the Register’s @JasonNoble1. 
 
 Bachmann, who had a horde of reporters turn up (Tucker Carlson, Andrea Mitchell and David Brooks),wandered to the Diggity Dog puppy treat shop, where her husband, Marcus, bought gifts for the family dog, Boomer. 
 
 Bachmann was up at dawn for TV appearances on “The Early Show” on CBS and “Morning Joe” on MSNBC. She ended her day with a 9 p.m. rally at campaign headquarters in Urbandale. 
 
 Standing on a pickup truck tailgate, Bachmann thanked perhaps 150 volunteers for their work on her behalf. 
 
 Des Moines voter Sally Mead said after hearing Bachmann in West Des Moines: “I’ll follow with whatever she has in mind that she thinks is right. She’s genuine.” ||||| 12.30 pm. Two last things: McCain will endorse Romney tomorrow. And Frum takes on Kristol: 
 
 Bill Kristol saying this is a real race in NH between Romney and Santorum. No it's not. Birth control pretty popular outside Iowa. 
 
 12.22 pm. Santorum starts by quoting C.S. Lewis, movingly, about his wife. Then it's on to God and Iowa. As Romney overtakes him in the count. I want to sleep now. 
 
 12.19 am. A word from Radley Balko: 
 
 Was already clear, but GOP establishment reaction to Paul tonight confirms that party's most important issue is promotion of perpetual war. 
 
 Perpetual pre-emptive war - and the national security state to buttress it. 
 
 12.17 am. A reader writes about Bachmann's concession speech: 
 
 The definition of tone-deaf: The entire country thinks your husband is gay, and the cute little anecdote you choose to pull out about him is that, while you were all campaigning, he was buying accessories for your dog. 
 
 12.15 am. Geraghty, pooping the party: 
 
 Btw, man of the hour Rick Santorum did not file petitions in Virginia. Not "didn't file enough signatures"; didn't turn them in at all. 
 
 12.03 am. From my perusal of the counties yet to report, most of them have Romney slightly ahead. So it could still tighten or change - with about 100 votes or so currently between them. When it's that close, I don't think you can make a huge deal out of the actual winner. But Romney could well still win this. 
 
 I suspect that this event has rather indeed winnowed the field, with Perry and Bachmann heading for the exit, Ron Paul headed for more delegates and a possible third party run, Romney doing a little worse than he did last time around. But fair's fair: Santorum is the big surprise and the big winner. He has coalesced the evangelical vote behind him, and given the religious nature of the current GOP, that matters. 
 
 But how remarkable that the Tea Party infused GOP has picked two of the most fiscally liberal candidates as their final two. Now Newt and Santorum will savage Romney; and the press will expose Santorum. Paul will have his delegates and will have to be handled right if he is not to indirectly re-elect Obama in a landslide. 
 
 11.59 pm. Perry says he will go back to Texas and reassess his candidacy. That's big news. But he looks relieved in a way. If you out-spend your opponents by this vast amount and come in fifth, you really need to drop out. And it looks as if he will. 
 
 11.53 pm. A shout out to Al Giordano's aside in a December 22 post: 
 
 “Before concluding, I’ll say a few words about former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum. He could still surprise in Iowa. With the graceless falls of Bachman and Perry, it’s now between Santorum and Gingrich as to who can possibly coalesce the Evangelical right behind one candidate in Iowa. But that would require a sudden Santorum surge in the New Year’s Des Moines Register poll.” 
 
 11.51 pm. Bret Baier: "The brown there is Rick Santorum." You realize the puns are going to, er, surge now, after this frothy late-night three-way. 
 
 11.37 pm. Santorum looks like he could win this. Amazing. He wins 53 percent in the "evangelical epicenters". The question now is: can he win in the South? 
 
 11.32 pm. Scott Galupo gets it right: 
 
 If anyone attracted new and younger voters to the caucuses, it was Ron Paul — who I can say with certainty will not be the nominee. Romney, for his part, does well among wealthy, older voters. Tonight’s results are mildly troubling for Romney—but more than mildly troubling for the GOP long-term. The party appeals mostly to a segment of the country that’s literally dying. 
 
 A party that repels and even demonizes the one candidate able to bring new voters to its ranks is not a healthy party. 
 
 11.24 pm. Gingrich is summarizing the core Republican message: a war on Iran, and the "survival" of the US and Israel. Then he calls Romney "a moderate from Massachusetts" who would preside over "the management of decay." He's talking about a months-long campaign in the primaries. And he's going to go negative in New Hampshire. As will Santorum with whatever money he now gets. 
 
 11.23 pm. Gingrich says Santorum ran a totally positive campaign. Yesterday, Santorum called Ron Paul "disgusting". 
 
 11.22 pm. John Hinderaker does his best to encourage Ron Paul to pursue a third party run. 
 
 11.21 pm. There are now 13 votes between Santorum and Romney. 
 
 11.13 pm. There's some buzz about Palin's return to her original (pre-McCain) position on foreign policy and her kind words for Ron Paul. There is a right-wing populism out there that Romney cannot harvest and Santorum - who is deeply suspicious of individual freedom - cannot appeal to beyond the Christianists and theocons. 
 
 11.10 pm. Paul's Iowa speech focuses on two themes: "freedom is popular" and that his supporters are people who actually "believe in something!" If his supporters are deflated, he doesn't seem it at all. He's a player. But in a Santorum-Romney race, his supporters will flee the GOP. As they should. 
 
 11.02 pm. The mood chez Paul is deflated; and Fox just declared that he will come third. That's a rough result for him after his surge. Geraghty assesses Santorum's chances now: 
 
 A big question about Santorum has been whether he can assemble a campaign infrastructure in all the states to come, but somehow I suspect that the considerable number of anybody-but-Romney Republicans will eagerly step forward and help assemble that infrastructure. If the race comes down to Romney & Santorum, the former Pennsylvania senator will have access to funds from the grassroots. Perhaps not enough to go toe-to-toe with Romney, but enough to make it competitive. 
 
 10.56 pm. Romney wins Polk County. Santorum is killing it in the West of the state, especially Woodbury county, where Sioux City is. He may become the evangelicals' not-Romney. He sure didn't win the Catholic vote in Dubuque. 
 
 10.49 pm. A shift: Romney is pulling ahead at 25 percent. If he wins this, even technically, he has a great storyline for New Hampshire and then the firewall of South Carolina. But it's still very tight, and some Paul strongholds have yet to report. Silver: 
 
 It's still early, but it appears the eventual winner in Iowa tonight may end up with a somewhat dubious distinction: the smallest share of the electorate by any winner. That title to date is held by Bob Dole, who won the Republican caucus in Iowa in 1996 with 26 percent of the vote (that was, as Nate said, the closest Iowa caucus in history). Right now, no candidate has more than 24 percent. 
 
 Advantage: Romney, right? But Romney is under-performing compared with how he did in 2008. It's a mess, isn't it? 
 
 10.46 pm. Tobin has some smart analysis: 
 
 The greatest danger to Romney’s hopes of winning the nomination was for one of his conservative rivals to break out from the pack. So long as the various not-Romneys are fighting each other, the actual Romney wins. So no matter who comes out ahead in this three-way tangle, the fact that there is no single rival for him in the top tier constitutes a strategic victory for him. Even so, his own inability to do better than the same 20-25 percent he’s had all along doesn’t make him look good. That’s why a first place finish would be sweet for him no matter how narrow the margin of victory. And a third-place finish will feel like a defeat. 
 
 So my bet is on second. 
 
 10.39 pm. Two possible straws in the wind: the western counties which favor Santorum have yet to report; the same can be said for the big delegate count in Des Moines, where Paul is edging his opponents and where the results are only 37 percent in. 
 
 10.33 pm. Romney's Super-PAC worked. Of those who said their vote was influenced by political ads, Romney came in first. 
 
 10.30 pm. "More people are tweeting this caucus than are voting in it. Literally." Good one, JPod. And the movement right is not thrilled. Erickson tweets: 
 
 10.28 pm. Fox projects that Newt will beat Perry. Perry is one of the most embarrassingly awful candidates for a national party since Sarah Palin. He should quit but won't. 
 
 10.20 pm. So we may not find out for quite a while, given how close this is, and how some of Paul's and Santorum's strongest counties have yet to report fully. It's got to be excruciating for the GOP. Romney may get about the same support in Iowa this time as last, and slightly below his national average. Paul gets to be taken seriously at last and is showing, I think, his potential as a third-party candidate. Santorum, meanwhile, has captured the Christianist vote over Perry. Can he replicate that in South Carolina? Who knows? What will now happen to Santorum's fundraising? 
 
 All of which is to say: this could go on for a long time, and damage everyone involved. Once the vetting of Santorum gets going, we'll have another major turn-off for anyone under 30. Romney is still failing to catch fire, having more of his supporters with reservations than anyone else. And in a year when the GOP was supposed to be rearing to defeat Obama , they cannot turn out more people than last time around, in the dark days of Bush-Cheney. 
 
 Obama cannot be too worried tonight, can he? 
 
 10.17 pm. Tweet of the minute: 
 
 10.12 pm. Santorum is strong in the eastern counties, as expected. Better than expected, actually. But the general result looks like a clean divide between those favoring libertarianism, Christianism, and Romneyism. So take your pick. 
 
 10.09 pm. There's a slight shift toward Romney and Santorum, edging ahead with 24 percent to Paul's 22 percent. But it's still way too close to call. 
 
 10.06 pm. Palin actually says the GOP must not now marginalize Ron Paul. She declines to back Santorum. 
 
 10.05 pm. A woman with a very bad wig is now on Fox. What's her name again? 
 
 10.03 pm. Turnout is poor, and the winner is still highly uncertain. In general, that seems like bad news for the GOP. The enthusiasm just isn't there, is it, except for Paul among the young. And the field is deeply split. 
 
 9.57 pm. Does it matter who wins, when it's this close? Of course, there's a bump from any actual victory. But if I were Romney, I wouldn't want to come in third, especially if he gets fewer votes this time than in 2008. Nonetheless, it seems to me that Santorum's late surge has hurt Paul and denied him what would have been a stunner. Bachmann is surely toast; Perry has long since become a joke; and Gingrich has shown how vulnerable he is to Super-Pac sliming. 
 
 9.54 pm. Gingrich's New Hampshire pitch: "FUNDAMENTALLY MORE TALENTED VERSION OF ABRAHAM LINCOLN." 
 
 9.50 pm. Intrade goes for Paul: 
 
 9.44 pm. Yglesias Award Nomination for Rich Lowry: 
 
 I think the “there is no bad result for Romney in Iowa” theme in the media is overdone. If he badly under-performs, say slips to 19%, he’s going to experience an immediate downdraft. So the results we’re about to start seeing do really matter for that and many other reasons. 
 
 But so far, Romney is holding up. 
 
 9.40 pm. Roger Ebert: 
 
 Leaving politics out of it, what sets Ron Paul aside from every other GOP candidate? He's the only one who's cool. 
 
 9.38 pm. Krauthammer is spinning for Romney and Santorum, and notes Paul's collapse among the final deciders. But he's right about Perry: a disaster, given the enormous amount of money Perry spent in the state. 
 
 9.37 pm. A reader writes: 
 
 &OMG. Fox News is actually showing a list of hot Google searches, talking about how many people are Googling "Santorum." And they are wholly clueless about what that search reveals. Fair and balanced -- but not fact-checked in advance! 
 
 9.36 pm. With almost a third of the vote in, there's no daylight really between the top three. 
 
 9.33 pm. A fascinating entrance poll nugget: Paul wins the intensity vote, with 28 percent of his voters strongly favoring him, compared with Romney's 20 percent. More to the point, 28 percent of Romney supporters said they had reservations about him. Only 18 percent of Paul's voters had reservations. 
 
 9.25 pm. Paul seems to be winning both Polk and Dallas counties: must-wins for Romney or Santorum, according to the WaPo. But Santorum and Romney are by no means out of it yet. It really is a three-way race. But a remarkable feat for the candidate Roger Ailes has decreed cannot win. 
 
 9.18 pm. Some interesting factoids from the entrance polls: Paul beats Santorum among those without a college education; Paul easily wins the under-30s and the lower income brackets. Alana Goodman: 
 
 Thirty-two percent of voters say that being able to beat President Obama is the “most important” quality in a candidate. Out of that group, 48 percent are backing Romney, 10 percent Santorum, and 7 percent Paul. 
 
 9.16 pm. Withdrawn tweet from Paul to Huntsman: 
 
 "we found your one Iowa voter, you might want to call him and say thanks" 
 
 9.09 pm. The independents have flooded in, doubling their impact over 2008, thanks to Ron Paul. Silver: 
 
 Almost 30 percent of voters identify as either independent or Democratic, much higher than in 2008 and toward the high range of the estimates that pollsters made in their likely voter models. The entrance polls report that about half of those voters are breaking for Ron Paul. Likewise, the percentage of moderates according to the the exit polls is about 20 percent - twice as high as in 2008 - and those voters so far are breaking for Mr. Paul as well. 
 
 Santorum is beating Romney among conservatives. This is interesting because New Hampshire really favors candidates with an outreach to independents. And Paul has reversed the youthful exodus from the GOP. Why would any Republicans want that? 
 
 9.07 pm. With 14 percent in state-wide, it's basically a three way tie, with Paul just in front. It's exactly the same as CNN's entrance poll results. 
 
 9.06 pm. Huntsman gets 1 percent and disses Iowans: "Welcome to New Hampshire. Nobody cares." 
 
 9.01 pm. The newsletters do not seem to have hurt, as even Weigel concedes: 
 
 So much for the newsletter story. Paul cleans up with "liberal or moderate" voters, winning 40 percent of them, and wins 48 percent of independents. 
 
 Who wants a Republican candidate who can appeal to the young, moderates and liberals? I mean, as Marc Thiessen would say, seriously. 
 
 8.57 pm. A reader writes: 
 
 You're going to be flooded with emails from Canadian readers after the "Santorum/sweater vest" post. In the 2008 election here in Canada, Prime Minister Stephen Harper, generally not known as the cuddly type, (in)famously made over his image by appearing in ads wearing a blue sweater vest. The sweater-vest-as-political-prop has become kind of a meme here in Canada, and for those of us who dislike the Harper conservatives, it's now a symbol of disingenuousness and smarmy politicking. Nevertheless, the makeover seems to have worked; Mr. Harper won that election, and this year, as you know, he finally got his long-sought-after majority government. 
 
 The website of the political consulting company that devised the sweater-vest strategy is here. 
 
 8.51 pm. Here's a terrific map which helps you judge the actual caucus precinct based on its demographics. It too is showing a strong Paul presence. With 6 percent of the votes in, it's a three way race between Santorum, Paul and Romney. Money quote from earlier today: 
 
 There are only four Monied Burb counties in Iowa (around Des Moines in the state’s center and in the west near Omaha, NE), but in 2008 they produced 26 percent of all the caucus votes. In 2012, they could be good territory for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. The Burbs, which are wealthier than average, tend to be less focused on cultural issues like gay marriage and more on the economy. They should be Romney’s strong suit. If Texas Congressman Ron Paul wins in the Burbs, it means populist anger in these counties is running high. 
 
 The results are still very slim, but Paul is well ahead of Romney in those burbs. It could well change over the night, of course. 
 
 8.50 pm. Which candidate had a speaker at every caucus? Ron Paul. 
 
 8.47 pm. Tweets from the field show a pretty lame showing for Perry and Bachmann, as do the entrance polls. Ron Paul wins the total entrance poll from CNN, just ahead of Romney. 
 
 8.45 pm. Direct results available here. Some are already dribbling in. 
 
 8.44 pm. CNN has the born-again vote going to Paul. Paul is second among the non-evangelicals as well. Hmmm. 
 
 8.38 pm. David Frum deserves a reply to this post: 
 
 Here’s my question for Ron Paul supporters: why the denial of the undeniable? Perhaps you like Paul’s message of legalized marijuana? Why not just say so? You don’t think it’s important to stop Iran from gaining nuclear weapons? Argue it forthrightly. If you regard Social Security and Medicare as literally the moral equivalents of slavery, go ahead, make your case. But all this excuse-making, special pleading and jiggering of the rules of evidence so as to exculpate Ron Paul from the record of his whole political life? For what? 
 
 Well, for my part, I have often made the case for legalizing marijuana, for containing, not bombing, Iran, and for serious cuts in Medicare and social security. And I do not believe Paul should be absolved from responsibility for the newsletters. He said himself it was a flaw on the Sunday talk shows, which seems like taking responsibility to me. 
 
 My question back to David is: which other Republican candidate favors an end to the drug war, reforming entitlements, cutting defense and not launching a new war on Iran? None so far as I can tell. And the whole record of Paul's public life is not defined by the extremes David cites. 
 
 8.36 pm. Never under-estimate the Paulites. 
 
 8.35 pm Tweet of the minute: 
 
 8.30 pm. CNN's early "entrance polls" show a tie between Romney and Paul, with Santorum close behind. Meanwhile, Ron Paul is busy on this night emphasizing his anti-war foreign policy in Alkeny. ||||| Paul continues to have much more passionate support than Romney. 77% of his voters are firmly committed to him, compared to 71% for Romney. Among voters who say their minds are completely made up Paul's lead expands to 7 points at 28-21. If Paul's lead holds on through next Tuesday it appears he'll have won this on the ground- 26% of voters think he's run the strongest campaign in the state to 18% for Bachmann and 10% for Santorum with just 5% bestowing that designation to Romney. There's also an increasing sense that Paul will indeed win the state- 29% think he'll emerge victorious with 15% picking Romney and no one else in double digits. 
 
 Paul's strength in Iowa continues to depend on a coalition of voters that's pretty unusual for a Republican in the state. Romney leads 22-20 with those who are actually Republicans, while Paul has a 39-12 advantage with the 24% who are either independents or Democrats. GOP caucus voters tend to skew old, and Romney has a 34-12 advantage with seniors. But Paul's candidacy looks like it's going to attract an unusual number of younger voters to the caucus this year, and with those under 45 he has a 35-11 advantage on Romney. The independent/young voter combo worked for Barack Obama in securing an unexpectedly large victory on the Democratic side in 2008 and it may be Paul's winning equation in 2012. 
 
 The last week and a half has brought little change in the standings for the Iowa Republican caucus: Ron Paul continues to lead Mitt Romney by a modest margin, 24-20. Newt Gingrich is in 3rd at 13% followed by Michele Bachmann at 11%, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum at 10%, Jon Huntsman at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at 2%. 
 
 Although Romney's support has held steady at 20% over the last week his favorability numbers have taken a hit, something that could keep him from moving into first place over the final week. He was at +9 (49/40) but has dipped now into negative territory at -3 (44/47). Additionally Romney is the second choice of only 10% of voters, barely better than Paul's 9%. It's certainly still close enough that he could win, but there's nothing within the numbers this week to suggest that he should win. One of Romney's biggest problems continues to be his inability to hold onto his 2008 voters. Only 48% of them are still with him. 
 
 In a development that probably no one would have expected a year ago Romney is winning big with regular Fox News viewers, getting 27% to 16% for Gingrich, 15% for Bachmann, and just 12% for Paul. But Paul leads Romney 38-13 with the 48% of likely caucus voters who don't regularly watch Fox News. 
 
 Newt Gingrich just keeps on sliding. He's gone from 27% to 22% to 14% to 13% over the course of our four Iowa tracking polls. His favorability numbers are pretty abysmal now at 37/54 and only 32% of likely voters think that he has strong principles to 45% who believe he does not. Once the darling of Tea Party voters in the state, he's now slipped to third with that group behind Bachmann and Paul. There's not much reason to think Gingrich can return to his former strong standing in the state in the final week. 
 
 Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, and Rick Santorum continue to all be clustered right around 10%. Santorum actually has the best favorability numbers of any of the candidates at +27 (56/29). He's also the most frequent second choice of voters at 14%. Whether he can translate any of this into a top 3 finish remains to be seen, but he's someone who would seem to have the potential to grow his support in the final week. 
 
 One thing that's hurt Santorum's ability to really make a move is that the Evangelical vote is incredibly fragmented with 6 different candidates getting between 12 and 21%. Paul actually leads the way with that group at 21% to 16% for Romney and Bachmann, 15% for Santorum, 14% for Gingrich, and 12% for Perry. 
 
 Bachmann leads the way with Tea Party voters 24-21 over Paul but the fact that you can be winning Tea Partiers but only in 4th place overall speaks to the diminished power of that movement compared to 2010 within the Republican electorate...only 26% of likely caucus voters consider themselves to be members. 
 
 Iowa looks like a 2 person race between Paul and Romney as the campaign enters its final week. If Paul can really change the electorate by turning out all these young people and independents who don't usually vote in Republican caucuses, he'll win. If turnout ends up looking a little bit more traditional, Romney will probably prevail. And given all the strange twists and turns to this point don't be surprised to see yet another surprise in the final week...and based on the innards of this poll the person best positioned to provide that surprise in the closing stretch is Santorum. 
 
 Full results here
– Tonight’s the night! At 7pm CT, Iowa Republicans will gather to cast the first votes in the Republican nominating season. Consider this your pregame report, with info from Politico, Mother Jones, and the Des Moines Register: The frontrunners: Polls show Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum are poised to grab the proverbial “three tickets out of Iowa.” Romney doesn’t need to win to remain the favorite for the nomination, but anything less than a respectable second will be damaging. Turnout is everything: If it’s high, that’s probably a good sign for Romney. If it’s low, it’s a good sign for Paul and/or Santorum—depending on where it’s concentrated. Bad weather is thought to favor Paul’s band of enthusiastic supporters. Location, location, location: Romney’s support is strongest in eastern Iowa, Santorum should fare well in the northwest, and Paul is hoping for turnout in college towns such as Ames. Politico highlights 10 counties to watch here. The battle for fourth: If either Newt Gingrich or Rick Perry can pull out a closer-than-expected fourth, they might be able to stay in the race. Last-minute campaigning: Romney held rallies in four cities yesterday, his most since 2008. Paul held forth in a hotel full of journalists in Des Moines, hoping to grab media buzz. And Santorum appeared with the cast of 19 Kids and Counting, the TLC reality show beloved by Iowa homeschoolers. Some intriguing numbers: Paul’s favorability has fallen 21 points in the past week. Only 76% of Santorum’s supporters say they’ll definitely caucus for him. Romney, meanwhile, has at some point trailed five different candidates in Iowa—and is now polling at exactly the same 18% he was at in January.