TOKYO (AP) — A new study says children living near the Fukushima nuclear meltdowns have been diagnosed with thyroid cancer at a rate 20 to 50 times that of children elsewhere, a difference the authors contend undermines the government's position that more cases have been discovered in the area only because of stringent monitoring. 
 
 Toshihide Tsuda, a professor at Okayama University, speaks during a press conference at Foreign Correspondents' Club of Japan in Tokyo, Thursday, Oct. 8, 2015. A new study says children living near the... (Associated Press) 
 
 FILE - In this March 29, 2011 file photo, children watch their father being screened for radiation at a shelter in Fukushima, northeast of Tokyo. A new study says children living near the Fukushima nuclear... (Associated Press) 
 
 FILE - In this March 15, 2011 file photo, a child is screened for radiation exposure at a testing center in Koriyama city, Fukushima Prefecture, northeast of Tokyo, after a nuclear power plant on the... (Associated Press) 
 
 Toshihide Tsuda, a professor at Okayama University, listens to a reporter's questions during a press conference at Foreign Correspondents' Club of Japan in Tokyo, Thursday, Oct. 8, 2015. A new study says... (Associated Press) 
 
 FILE - In this March 24, 2011 file photo, a young evacuee is screened at a shelter for leaked radiation from the tsunami-ravaged Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant in Fukushima, northeast of Tokyo. A new... (Associated Press) 
 
 Most of the 370,000 children in Fukushima prefecture (state) have been given ultrasound checkups since the March 2011 meltdowns at the tsunami-ravaged Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant. The most recent statistics, released in August, show that thyroid cancer is suspected or confirmed in 137 of those children, a number that rose by 25 from a year earlier. Elsewhere, the disease occurs in only about one or two of every million children per year by some estimates. 
 
 "This is more than expected and emerging faster than expected," lead author Toshihide Tsuda told The Associated Press during a visit to Tokyo. "This is 20 times to 50 times what would be normally expected." 
 
 The study was released online this week and is being published in the November issue of Epidemiology, produced by the Herndon, Virginia-based International Society for Environmental Epidemiology. The data comes from tests overseen by Fukushima Medical University. 
 
 Making sense of the relationship between radiation and cancer is precarious: It's scientifically impossible to link an individual cancer case to radiation. Looking harder with routine check-ups, like the one in Fukushima, leads to quicker discovery of tumors, inflating the tallies in a so-called "screening effect." 
 
 Right after the disaster, the lead doctor brought in to Fukushima, Shunichi Yamashita, repeatedly ruled out the possibility of radiation-induced illnesses. The thyroid checks were being ordered just to play it safe, according to the government. 
 
 But Tsuda, a professor at Okayama University, said the latest results from the ultrasound checkups, which continue to be conducted, raise doubts about the government's view. 
 
 Thyroid cancer among children is one sickness the medical world has definitively linked to radiation after the 1986 Chernobyl catastrophe. If treated, it is rarely fatal, and early detection is a plus, but patients are on medication for the rest of their lives. 
 
 Scientists are divided on Tsuda's conclusions. 
 
 In the same Epidemiology issue, Scott Davis, professor at the Department of Epidemiology in the Seattle-based School of Public Health, said the key limitation of Tsuda's study is the lack of individual-level data to estimate actual radiation doses. 
 
 Davis agreed with the findings of the World Health Organization and UNSCEAR, or the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation, both of which have carried out reviews on Fukushima and predicted cancer rates will remain stable, with no rises being discernable as radiation-caused. 
 
 David J. Brenner, professor of radiation biophysics at Columbia University Medical Center, took a different view. While he agreed individual estimates on radiation doses are needed, he said in a telephone interview that the higher thyroid cancer rate in Fukushima is "not due to screening. It's real." 
 
 Conclusions about any connection between Fukushima radiation and cancer will help determine compensation and other policies. Many people who live in areas deemed safe by the government have fled fearing sickness, especially for their children. 
 
 An area extending about 20 kilometers (12 miles) from the nuclear plant has been declared an exclusion zone. The borders are constantly being remapped as cleanup of radiated debris and soil continues in an effort to bring as many people back as possible. Decommissioning the plant is expected to take decades. 
 
 Noriko Matsumoto, 53, who used to work as a nurse in Koriyama, Fukushima, outside the no-go zone, fled to Tokyo with her then-11-year-old daughter a few months after the disaster. She had initially shrugged off the fears but got worried when her daughter started getting nosebleeds and rashes. 
 
 "My daughter has the right to live free of radiation," she said. "We can never be sure about blaming radiation. But I personally feel radiation is behind sicknesses." 
 
 Andrew F. Olshan, professor at the Department of Epidemiology at the University of North Carolina, in Chapel Hill, noted that research on what follows a catastrophe is complex and difficult. 
 
 "Dr. Tsuda's study had limitations including assessment of individual radiation dose levels to the thyroid and the ability to fully assess the impact of screening on the excess cases detected," he said. 
 
 "Nonetheless, this study is critical to initiate additional investigations of possible health effects, for governmental planning, and increasing public awareness." 
 
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 Follow Yuri Kageyama: http://twitter.com/yurikageyama ||||| Fukushima Study Links Children's Cancer To Nuclear Accident 
 
 Enlarge this image toggle caption Chris Meyers/Reuters/Landov Chris Meyers/Reuters/Landov 
 
 Updated at 3:40 p.m. ET 
 
 A new analysis of data from Fukushima suggests children exposed to the March 2011 nuclear accident may be developing thyroid cancer at an elevated rate. 
 
 But independent experts say that the study, published in the journal Epidemiology, has numerous shortcomings and does not prove a link between the accident and cancer. 
 
 The work, led by Toshihide Tsuda of Okayama University, is based on a large public health survey that was set up in Japan's Fukushima prefecture following the accident. As part of the survey, children who were living near the plant at the time of the accident have been offered regular thyroid screenings. 
 
 Thyroid cancer can be caused by radioactive iodine released in a nuclear accident. Children are particularly susceptible because their thyroids are growing rapidly. Thyroid cancer was listed as a possible health risk in a World Health Organization report on Fukushima, though the report stated it would be difficult to link cancer cases to the accident. 
 
 In the past year or so, the Fukushima Health Survey of more than 150,000 children has turned up 25 "suspicious or malignant cases" of thyroid cancer. Thyroid screenings in previous years have also found numerous cases. 
 
 Enlarge this image toggle caption Wally Santana/AP Wally Santana/AP 
 
 Japanese officials believe the screening process itself may be behind the numbers. Increased vigilance might be turning up thyroid abnormalities that otherwise would have gone undetected. 
 
 But the new paper contradicts that view. The increase in cancer is "unlikely to be caused by a screening surge," the paper says. It says thyroid cancer rates are highly elevated throughout Fukushima. 
 
 Other researchers are skeptical of the new result. Geraldine Thomas, a professor at Imperial College who has studied thyroid cancer from Chernobyl, says the analysis incorrectly compares the screening in Fukushima to clinical cases of thyroid cancer in which patients are already sick. The comparison falsely suggests thyroid cancer in Fukushima is elevated by as much as 50 times compared with the general population. "This is not a very good paper to be basing opinions on," she says. 
 
 More accurate comparisons between residents within different parts of Fukushima prefecture show no statistically significant variations in cancer rates, she says. 
 
 David Brenner, director of the Center for Radiological Research at Columbia University, adds that the study makes no effort to trace the exposure of patients. "It's simply relating geographic regions to cancer risks and not looking at individual radiation doses," he says, adding that without that information, it's virtually impossible to connect the screenings to the accident. 
 
 "It really doesn't tell us the whole story," he says. ||||| Background: After the Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami in March 2011, radioactive elements were released from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. Based on prior knowledge, concern emerged about whether an increased incidence of thyroid cancer among exposed residents would occur as a result. 
 
 Methods: After the release, Fukushima Prefecture performed ultrasound thyroid screening on all residents ages <=18 years. The first round of screening included 298,577 examinees, and a second round began in April 2014. We analyzed the prefecture results from the first and second round up to December 31, 2014, in comparison with the Japanese annual incidence and the incidence within a reference area in Fukushima Prefecture. 
 
 Results: The highest incidence rate ratio, using a latency period of 4 years, was observed in the central middle district of the prefecture compared with the Japanese annual incidence (incidence rate ratio = 50; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 25, 90). The prevalence of thyroid cancer was 605 per million examinees (95% CI = 302, 1,082) and the prevalence odds ratio compared with the reference district in Fukushima Prefecture was 2.6 (95% CI = 0.99, 7.0). In the second screening round, even under the assumption that the rest of examinees were disease free, an incidence rate ratio of 12 has already been observed (95% CI = 5.1, 23). 
 
 Conclusions: An excess of thyroid cancer has been detected by ultrasound among children and adolescents in Fukushima Prefecture within 4 years of the release, and is unlikely to be explained by a screening surge. 
 
 This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-Non Commercial-No Derivatives License 4.0 (CCBY-NC-ND), where it is permissible to download and share the work provided it is properly cited. The work cannot be changed in any way or used commercially. 
 
 Copyright (C) 2016 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved. ||||| People in Aachen often feel uneasy about their proximity to the Belgian border, and the controversial Tihange nuclear power plant located some 70 kilometers (43 miles) away. Parts of the plant are more than 40 years old. The oldest block was meant to be taken offline two years ago. Repeated reports about newly discovered cracks in the reactors send collective shivers through Aachen's population. Now, local authorities are taking a preventative measure. Starting on Friday, residents can order free iodine tablets online, in the event of a major accident in Tihange. 
 
 Usually, iodine tablets are stored in a central location, and only distributed in an emergency. But Markus Kremer, the Aachen city official in charge of environmental issues, said the city came to the conclusion that the tablets couldn't be distributed quickly enough in the case of an accident at Tihange. "That's how we had the idea of supplying a large part of the population with iodine tablets in advance," he said. 
 
 The tablets could help prevent thyroid cancer in case of radioactive contamination, and are aimed primarily at children, breastfeeding mothers and people under the age of 45. For all other people, the risk of side effects outweighs the likelihood of one day contracting thyroid cancer. 
 
 'Don't want to downplay the risks' 
 
 Kremer says the city is aware that such a preventative measure could have the unwanted effect of further unsettling Aachen residents. "In everything we've done so far, we've tried to find a sensible way of communicating the necessary information. On the one hand, there is absolutely no point in people panicking, but we also don't want to downplay the risks." Authorities estimate that more than a third of residents will take advantage of the free tablets. 
 
 Belgium's nuclear plants have also mobilized Aachen residents in other ways. Many windows and car bumpers sport stickers and flyers calling for Tihange to be closed down. This summer, activists formed a human chain stretching 90 kilometers along the road from Tihange to Aachen in protest against the power plant. 
 
 Local pharmacist Gabriele Neumann said there was already demand for iodine tablets before the city launched its distribution program. "There was particularly large demand around 18 months ago when Tihange was shut down and then restarted a few times," she said, adding her pharmacy alone sold more than 300 packages of iodine tablets at the time. 
 
 Many Aachen residents have displayed signs calling for the Tihange plant's closure 
 
 Tablets 'only a first step' 
 
 But iodine tablets alone are not nearly enough if citizens seriously want to prepare themselves for a large-scale nuclear accident, said Hans-Josef Allelein, an expert on reactor safety and reactor technology at Aachen's technical university. "We need to be clear: that's just a first step. I personally don't think this fear is founded, but if you have this fear, you should also stockpile two liters of water per person, basic food supplies, vitamin tablets, rubber boots and materials you can use to seal your doors and windows," said Allelein. But he's critical of the debate about iodine tablets specifically, and Tihange in general, saying the tone has been too hysterical. And he takes particular issue with a study commissioned on the Aachen region, outlining possible scenarios in the event of a major accident at the plant. 
 
 The study, conducted by the Institute for Security and Risk Assessment at the University of Vienna, concluded that in the event of an accident at Tihange, the Aachen region would very likely be affected by radioactive radiation. Furthermore, the study said that, depending on weather patterns, the levels of radioactivity could reach those seen during the 1986 Chernobyl disaster, leading to widespread evacuations. 
 
 Does nuclear power have a future? Deadly disaster The worst nuclear disaster of all time, the explosion at Chernobyl nuclear plant in Ukraine released massive amounts of radiation into the atmosphere. Areas close to the plant - in Ukraine, Belarus and Russia - were heavily contaminated. Heightened levels of radiation were also measured across most of Europe. The "exclusion zone" around Chernobyl remains off-limits to human habitation today. 
 
 Does nuclear power have a future? It happens again After a magnitude-9 earthquake and consequent tsunami, three nuclear reactors at Fukushima power plant in Japan went into meltdown in March 2011. There were also four hydrogen explosions. The accident released 500 times as much radioactive cesium-137 as the nuclear bomb dropped on Hiroshima in 1945. The clean-up is expected to take decades. 
 
 Does nuclear power have a future? Sickening impact After Chernobyl, thousands of people developed cancer. In Japan too, the heavily contaminated region of Fukushima, where 200,000 people lost their homes, saw cases of the disease escalate. The number of children with thyroid cancer there is 20 times higher than other regions. 
 
 Does nuclear power have a future? Rallying against nuclear power Chernobyl fueled public opposition to nuclear power, particularly in Europe. The same happened after Fukushima. Before the Japanese disaster, the country relied on nuclear for 30 percent of its power. That has fallen to 1 percent. The government wants to continue producing nuclear power and plans to reinstall some reactors. But affected regions have successfully pushed back those plans. 
 
 Does nuclear power have a future? Nuclear industry in crisis Today, the nuclear power sector is deep in economic crisis. In Japan, the United States and France, nuclear power plants run at a loss, and construction projects for new reactors have been postponed. 
 
 Does nuclear power have a future? New-build set-backs France had high hopes for its newest nuclear reactors - called pressurized water reactors (PWRs). This technology was supposed to be safe, and the Flamanville power plant was due to be switched on in 2012. Due to security issues, that's been pushed back to 2018 at the earliest. The project will cost more than 10 billion euros - three times the original budget. 
 
 Does nuclear power have a future? Great Britain plans new reactors For years, the UK has been planning to build two new PWR reactors at Hinkley Point. Costs are estimated at 33 billion euros and groundbreaking is slated for 2019. But doubts are growing over its economic viability. The electricity it produces will be much pricier than solar or wind power, and will need subsidies to compete in the market. 
 
 Does nuclear power have a future? Aging reactors up for grabs Nuclear power plants used to be lucrative. But now, many are old and frail. Repair costs often mean they cannot turn a profit. Swiss energy corporation Alpiq recently tried to give away two of its old plants, 33 and 38 years old, to French energy company EDF - which declined the offer. 
 
 Does nuclear power have a future? Disasters abroad prompt German phase-out Three decades ago, the Chernobyl disaster galvanized Germany's anti-nuclear movement, which is often cited as the roots of the country's energy transition. In 2002, Germany passed a law that would have seen the last reactor shut down in 2022. The plan was later scrapped by Angela Merkel's government. But after Fukushima, Merkel quickly reversed her decision and the phase-out was back on track. 
 
 Does nuclear power have a future? Switching them off So far, nine of Germany's reactors have gone offline, with eight more to follow by 2022. To finance the costs of nuclear waste disposal, plant operators must pay 23.6 billion euros into a federal fund. The operators themselves are responsible for the similarly costly process of dismantling the plants, which will take decades to complete. 
 
 Does nuclear power have a future? Growing fear of accidents Across the EU and Switzerland 132 nuclear reactors are still online. They were designed to operate for 30 to 35 years - their average age is now 32 years. Malfunctions and security issues are frequently detected and protestors are increasingly calling for plants to be shut down. 
 
 Does nuclear power have a future? China pushes on with nuclear No new nuclear power plants have been built in the EU, Japan or Russia since the Fukushima disaster in 2011. China remains committed to nuclear, partly to replace coal-based power. But the country is also upping investment in wind and solar. Author: Gero Rueter (sst,jf) 
 
 
 
 Government: No basis for conclusions 
 
 At the end of last year, Green party lawmaker Sylvia Kotting-Uhl submitted a parliamentary question to the federal government in which she referred to the results of the study from Vienna. The government responded at the start of this year, saying that the study did not adequately describe the disaster and emergency measures, and that it could therefore not be used as the basis for any firm conclusions. 
 
 Even though physicist Allelein personally feels that fears about a nuclear disaster at Tihange are unfounded, he does agree with one aspect of the criticism directed at the Belgian operators of the power plant: "I have the feeling that the Belgian operators and also Belgium's Federal Agency for Nuclear Control only ever release information once it's somehow been released elsewhere." ||||| TOKYO — Radioactive iodine detected in Tokyo’s water supply prompted Japanese authorities on Wednesday to warn that infants in Tokyo and surrounding areas should not be given tap water to drink, adding to the anxiety about public safety posed by Japan ’s unfolding nuclear crisis. 
 
 Ei Yoshida, head of water purification for the Tokyo water department, said at a televised news conference that iodine 131 had been detected in water samples at a level of 210 becquerels per liter, about a quart. The recommended limit for infants is 100 becquerels per liter. For adults, the recommended limit is 300 becquerels. (The unit is named for Henri Becquerel, one of the discoverers of radioactivity.) 
 
 The announcement prompted a run on bottled water at stores in Tokyo and a pledge from the authorities to distribute bottled water to families with infants. Prime Minister Naoto Kan said earlier Wednesday that the public should avoid additional farm produce from areas near the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station, severely damaged by the March 11 earthquake and tsunami, according to the Japanese news media. 
 
 The Health Ministry said that it was unlikely that there would be negative consequences for infants who were given the water, but that it should be avoided if possible and not be used to make infant formula. There was some confusion about the public health advice, with experts saying it should also apply to pregnant women, since they and fetuses were vulnerable. 
 
 “It’s unfortunate, but the radiation is clearly being carried on the air from the Fukushima plant,” Yukio Edano, the chief cabinet secretary, said Wednesday. “Because it’s raining, it’s possible that a lot of places will be affected. Even if people consume the water a few times, there should be no long-term ill effects.” 
 
 As authorities tried to maintain calm in Tokyo, residents were racing to buy as much bottled water as they could, clearing the shelves of the city’s stores. Mr. Edano said Thursday that officials were considering a plan to import water from overseas, to supplement the bottles they planned to begin distributing across the city. 
 
 Despite the frequent rain in recent days, it was not entirely clear why the levels of iodine were so high, said a senior Western nuclear executive, noting that the prevailing breezes seemed to be pushing radiation out to sea. “The contamination levels are well beyond what you’d expect from what is in the public domain,” said the executive, who insisted on anonymity and has broad contacts in Japan. 
 
 It was possible that the levels were an indirect indication that the problems at the plant were deeper than had been publicly acknowledged. 
 
 The daily Asahi Shimbun cited the Health Ministry as saying that drinking the water would hurt neither a pregnant woman nor her fetus, and that it was safe for bathing and other everyday activities. 
 
 But experts say that pregnant women, nursing mothers and fetuses, as well as children, face the greatest danger from radioactive iodine, which is taken in by the thyroid gland and can cause thyroid cancer. Children are at much higher risk than adults because they are growing, and their thyroid glands are more active and in need of iodine. In addition, the gland is smaller in children than in adults, so a given amount of iodine 131 will deliver a higher dose of radiation to a child’s thyroid and potentially do more harm. 
 
 According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, if an adult and a child ingest the same amount of radioactive iodine, the thyroid dose will be 16 times higher to a newborn than to an adult; for a child under 1 year old, eight times the adult dose; for a 5-year-old, four times the adult dose. 
 
 Pregnant women also take up more iodine 131 in the thyroid, especially in the first trimester. The iodine crosses the placenta and reaches the fetus, and the fetal thyroid takes up more iodine as pregnancy progresses. During the first week after birth a baby’s thyroid activity increases up to fourfold and stays at that level for a few days, so newborns are especially vulnerable. 
 
 Potassium iodide can protect the thyroid by saturating it with normal iodine. People in Japan have been advised to take it. 
 
 The 1986 accident at Chernobyl caused an epidemic of thyroid cancer — 6,000 cases so far — in people who were exposed as children. The culprit was milk produced by cows that had grazed on grass heavily carpeted by fallout. The epidemic could probably have been prevented if people in the region had been told not to drink milk and if they had been given potassium iodide. 
 
 The warning Wednesday applied to Tokyo’s 23 wards, as well as to the towns of Mitaka, Tama, Musashino, Machida and Inagi to the west. At a press briefing on Thursday, Mr. Edano said radiation had also shown up in tests of water supplies for two of Tokyo’s neighboring prefectures, Chiba and Saitama, in levels above the maximum recommended limits for infants, but below levels considered dangerous to adults. 
 
 At a Lawson convenience store in the Tsukiji neighborhood of central Tokyo, the shelves were about half-stocked with water. A clerk said he had restocked them just an hour before.
– For four years, nearly all kids living in Japan's Fukushima prefecture have received ultrasounds to gauge the effects of the nuclear disaster there in March 2011. Now a research team says the alarming results are in: Children living near the nuclear plant have thyroid cancer rates that are 20 to 50 times higher than those found in children elsewhere, the AP reports. Per a study being published in the November issue of Epidemiology, of the 370,000 or so kids 18 and under in the Fukushima region who received thyroid exams since the disaster, 137 of them have suspected or confirmed cases of thyroid cancer, a number that rose by 25 from last year, the AP notes. "This is more than expected and emerging faster than expected," lead author Toshihide Tsuda tells the AP. Thyroid cancer cases in children outside the prefecture are estimated to be around one or two out of every million kids per year. Children's thyroids are particularly vulnerable to cancer—radioactive iodine released during nuclear meltdowns can cause it—because they're growing so quickly, NPR notes. Tsuda and his team claim that the numbers aren't simply the result of a "screening effect"—in which more routine checkups like the ones in Fukushima have simply found tumors earlier and more often—as the Japanese government has suggested. Other experts, however, aren't so sure how accurate Tsuda's study is and note the complexity of studying such an issue. The director for Columbia University's Center for Radiological Research, for example, tells NPR that just tying certain geographic areas to higher cancer rates doesn't prove anything without looking at individual radiation exposure, a claim that's echoed in a report by the World Health Organization.(The residents of the Japanese town of Nahara are finally allowed back—but many don't want to go.)