Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has been the most ardent proponent of President Barack Obama taking a hard line with House Republicans in the latest fiscal crisis engulfing Washington. 
 
 And so far, Reid is getting his way. 
 
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 reset Heckler at House GOP rally Reid: Won't bow to 'anarchists' 
 
 When the president considered sitting down with the four congressional leaders in the White House ahead of the deadline to avert a government shutdown, Reid privately urged Obama to call off the meeting, according to several people familiar with the situation. Reid believed that it would amount to nothing more than a photo-op that would give the false impression that a serious negotiation was occurring, even warning he wouldn’t attend such a session. Obama scrapped it. 
 
 (Government shutdown full coverage) 
 
 As Washington barrels forward to the first government shutdown in 17 years on Tuesday, the wily Reid has taken the lead role in pushing a hardball Democratic legislative strategy that can be summed up like this: Make the Republicans cave. 
 
 “He’s been the rock … and he’s had our whole caucus behind him,” said Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), a close Reid ally who spoke with the majority leader nine times on Saturday afternoon. “Because if we negotiate on a short-term [government funding bill], what are [Republicans] going to do on a long-term bill? What are they going to do on the debt ceiling?” 
 
 So far in this fight, the party’s leadership, senior White House officials and the president have been on the same page. They will not let Republicans gut or delay Obamacare — or concede an inch to the GOP despite the ramifications of a shutdown. For now, even Republicans privately concede House Republicans could suffer much of the political backlash for a looming shutdown. 
 
 (Also on POLITICO: Republicans toss insults at Reid) 
 
 But Reid’s no-compromise stance is not without its own risks. With Washington held in such low regard, politicians of all stripes are certain to incur fury from constituents once government services are suspended, parks are closed and hundreds of thousands of federal workers are furloughed. And Reid now is protecting a fragile Democratic Senate majority, with Republicans just six seats away from returning to power — so any misstep by the Nevada Democrat could hurt vulnerable senators in red states. 
 
 A shutdown appears a near certainty at this point. After the Senate stripped out language to defund Obamacare in a bill to keep the government running until mid-November, the House in a rare Saturday session added in a yearlong delay of major portions of the health care law and a repeal of the law’s 2.3 percent tax on medical-device makers. On Monday afternoon, Reid will reconvene the Senate and quickly move to kill the House’s anti-Obamacare provisions on the votes of just Democratic senators. 
 
 At that point, the ball will be back in Speaker John Boehner’s court: Pass a $986-billion continuing resolution that would continue to fund Obamacare, or send back another plan taking aim at the health law that Republicans collectively hate. If they choose the latter, Democrats plan to vote it down in the Senate. And if the House refuses to pass a clean stopgap measure, a partial government shutdown would occur for the first time since the Clinton era. 
 
 (PHOTOS: 17 times the government has shut down) 
 
 Reid said in an interview Friday there was little point for Obama to engage directly in the fiscal fights. “Not on the debt ceiling and not on the CR,” he told POLITICO. “Maybe on something else — but not these two. We have to fund the government and pay our bills.” 
 
 Reid’s strategy boils down to a few factors: If Democrats give even a few small concessions on a short-term stopgap funding measure, Republicans will demand even bigger concessions to avoid a debt default in mid-October. Since Republicans have been engulfed in an intraparty war over how far to take a shutdown threat, Reid and his top lieutenants are convinced that the political backlash from a shutdown would be devastating to the GOP, potentially costing them their majority in the House. 
 
 (WATCH: Obamacare timeline) 
 
 Republicans on Sunday furiously sought to change that narrative and put the blame squarely on Reid. About 20 House members rallied in front of the Senate steps on Sunday afternoon, accusing Reid of angling for a government shutdown to hurt Republicans politically. They called on the Senate to come back into session Sunday and negotiate with House Republicans. 
 
 (WATCH: Romney: There's a better way to stop Obamacare) 
 
 “The fact that the senators aren’t here and Harry Reid is off somewhere is all the evidence that you need to know that they want to shut down the government,” said Rep. Tim Griffin of Arkansas. “I personally believe that Sen. Reid and the president — for political purposes — want to shut down the government.” 
 
 Whether the party can stick together when the political heat intensifies remains to be seen given that Democrats haven’t always been unified in fiscal fights during Obama’s time in office. 
 
 Reid and top Democrats were infuriated by the White House’s handling of the fiscal cliff fight that led to a New Year’s Eve 2012 deal between Vice President Joe Biden and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. In late 2010, when the White House cut a deal with Senate Republicans to extend Bush-era tax cuts for two years, Democrats were also furious. And in 2011, Democrats feared Obama would cut a grand-bargain deal with Boehner that would slash too deeply into entitlement programs they have vowed to protect. 
 
 Now, the White House and Reid both plan to furiously make the argument that the burden will be squarely on Boehner to pass a temporary stopgap measure to keep the government funded — or risk the wrath from voters tired of political brinksmanship. 
 
 (Obamacare full coverage) 
 
 And Democrats say they will make sure neither they — nor the White House — will bend. Eventually, they believe, Boehner will be forced to acquiesce to Democratic demands to keep the government funded without any anti-Obamacare provisions. 
 
 “I think Harry Reid and the Democratic Senate Caucus have been the group that has been the strongest,” Schumer told POLITICO Sunday. 
 
 John Bresnahan contributed to this report. ||||| Correction: A previous version of this article incorrectly said that Border Patrol officers, prison guards and air traffic controllers were told they may not be paid for their work during the shutdown. They will be paid, as will other workers who are deemed essential, but their pay may be delayed This version has been corrected. 
 
 House Speaker John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) talks with reporters after meeting with the House Republican caucus on the eighth day of the government shutdown. House Republican leaders pressed demands for negotiations with Senate Democrats and President Obama over bills to fund the government and raise the federal debt limit, but they would not say what they are seeking in those negotiations. 
 
 Oct. 8, 2013 House Speaker John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) talks with reporters after meeting with the House Republican caucus on the eighth day of the government shutdown. House Republican leaders pressed demands for negotiations with Senate Democrats and President Obama over bills to fund the government and raise the federal debt limit, but they would not say what they are seeking in those negotiations. Melina Mara/The Washington Post 
 
 With no agreement on a funding bill in sight, Republicans and Democrats continue to spar on Capitol Hill, while federal workers sit at home and the American public watches as an even more critical deadline on raising the federal debt limit nears. 
 
 The Senate rejected House amendments to a short-term spending bill Monday, pushing the government toward its first shutdown in nearly two decades. 
 
 The Senate rejected House amendments to a short-term spending bill Monday, pushing the government toward its first shutdown in nearly two decades. 
 
 by Lori Montgomery and Paul Kane 
 
 The U.S. government began to shut down for the first time in 17 years early Tuesday, after a Congress bitterly divided over President Obama’s signature health-care initiative failed to reach agreement to fund federal agencies. 
 
 Hours before a midnight deadline, the Republican House passed its third proposal in two weeks to fund the government for a matter of weeks. Like the previous plans, the new one sought to undermine the Affordable Care Act, this time by delaying enforcement of the “individual mandate,” a cornerstone of the law that requires all Americans to obtain health insurance. 
 
 The new measure also sought to strip lawmakers and their aides of long-standing government health benefits. 
 
 The Democratic-led Senate quickly rejected that plan on a party-line vote. Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid (D-Nev.) urged House Speaker John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) to abandon the assault on the health-care law and pass a simple bill to keep the government open. Otherwise, Reid warned, “the responsibility for this Republican government shutdown will rest squarely on his shoulders.” 
 
 Boehner refused to yield. He instead won approval, in a 1 a.m. largely party-line roll call, requesting a special House-Senate committee to meet in the coming days to resolve differences between the two parties, leaving in limbo the fate of millions of federal workers and the services they provide. 
 
 Shortly before midnight, the White House budget office issued a memo instructing agencies to “execute plans for an orderly shutdown due to the absence of appropriations.” 
 
 The impasse means 800,000 federal workers will be furloughed Tuesday. National parks, monuments and museums, as well as most federal offices, will close. Tens of thousands of air-traffic controllers, prison guards and Border Patrol agents will be required to serve, but their pay may be delayed. And many congressional hearings — including one scheduled for Tuesday on last month’s Washington Navy Yard shootings — will be postponed. 
 
 In a last-minute ray of hope for active-duty troops, Congress on Monday approved and sent to the White House an agreement to keep issuing military paychecks. But Obama warned that the broader economy, which is finally starting to recover from the shocks of the past six years, would take a substantial hit if congressional gridlock shutters “America’s largest employer.” 
 
 “Keeping the people’s government open is not a concession to me. Keeping vital services running and hundreds of thousands of Americans on the job is not something you ‘give’ to the other side. It’s our basic responsibility,” Obama said in a statement Monday evening at the White House. 
 
 Privately, senior Republicans predicted that the closure would last at least a week. A fraction of today’s House Republicans were on Capitol Hill in 1995 and 1996 when a Republican-led Congress last shut down the government in a dispute over the budget with a Democratic president. Younger lawmakers don’t remember the pain the shutdown caused constituents, senior Republicans said. And many of them now question the conventional wisdom that the closures weakened the GOP presidential candidate in 1996 and nearly cost the party control of the House. 
 
 Democrats predicted that if the shutdown stretches into the weekend, the government-funding dispute could be rolled into an even more serious battle over the $16.7 trillion federal debt limit. The Treasury Department will begin running short of cash to pay the nation’s bills as soon as Oct. 17 unless Congress approves additional borrowing authority. With so little time remaining to avoid what would be the nation’s first default, Democratic aides predicted that negotiations to reopen the government may be merged into the debt-limit talks. 
 
 On Monday evening, Obama telephoned Boehner to urge him to reconsider his stance on the health-care law. In a call that lasted nearly 10 minutes, according to Boehner’s office, the president reiterated his insistence that there would be no negotiations over the debt limit, and that Congress must pay the bills it has incurred. 
 
 Boehner responded by mocking Obama in a speech on the House floor. 
 
 “ ‘I’m not going to negotiate,’ ” he said, quoting Obama. “I would say to the president: This is not about me. It’s not about Republicans here in Congress. It’s about fairness.” 
 
 The speech drew applause for the embattled speaker, who argued passionately that Republicans were merely seeking “fairness” for working people. Obama has delayed a mandate for employers to insure workers and delayed other requirements for big unions, Boehner said. “Yet they stick our constituents with a bill they don’t like and a bill they can’t afford,” he said. 
 
 Despite the show of unity, Republicans on both sides of the Capitol remain deeply divided about the attack on the health-care law. In the House, a group of more moderate Republicans was seething about the decision to bow to the forces that oppose the Affordable Care Act, led by Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) and his allies on the right, including such outside groups as Heritage Action for America. 
 
 On Monday, some publicly urged Boehner to drop the issue and seek the help of House Democrats to pass the simple government-funding bill that the Senate approved last week. 
 
 “I don’t want to shut down the government,” said Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (W.Va.), who is trying to become her state’s first GOP senator since the 1950s, adding that she was inclined to support a “clean” funding bill. 
 
 Frustrations also were simmering among Senate Republicans, who complained that House leaders were pressing the attack in direct opposition to public opinion. Polls show that voters overwhelmingly disapprove of using the threat of a shutdown to defund the health-care law and that blame for a shutdown will fall squarely on Republicans. 
 
 “By wanting to repeal Obamacare using this method, it defies what the popular will is,” said Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), the 2008 GOP presidential nominee, who campaigned last year on behalf of his party’s national ticket. 
 
 “I campaigned in 2012 all over this country for months: ‘Repeal and replace Obamacare.’ That was not the mandate of the voters,” McCain said. “If they wanted to repeal Obamacare, the 2012 election would have been probably significantly different.” 
 
 Adding to the tension Monday was Boehner’s decision to add the provision that would strip lawmakers, congressional staff members and White House aides of the employer subsidies for health insurance they have received for many years. 
 
 Now that lawmakers and their aides must join the new health-insurance exchanges, some conservative groups have criticized the subsidies, worth about $5,000 a year for individual coverage and $10,000 for families, as a “special exemption” from the new law. By including the provision, House leaders hoped to attract conservative support and put pressure on Senate Democrats, who faced the choice of shutting down the government to protect their own perks. 
 
 “On what flooding peninsula can you stand when it’s a question of delaying the individual mandate, ending member subsidies and funding the government?” said Rep. Peter Roskam (R-Ill.). If Reid kills it, “the senators he’s going to protect become the subject of incredible scrutiny.” 
 
 Even some Republicans were uneasy about the prospect of dealing their aides — and some of their colleagues — the equivalent of a big pay cut. Sen. Richard J. Durbin (D-Ill.) called it an “outrage,” adding that Boehner had worked directly with Reid and the Obama administration to make sure the subsidies would stay in place when congressional employees join the exchanges next year. 
 
 Boehner and his team presented the proposal to rank-and-file Republicans in a closed-door meeting Monday. For more than an hour and a half, lawmakers argued about the plan. They emerged with an unusual number of public dissenters, including Rep. Peter T. King (N.Y.), one of a dozen Republicans who ultimately voted against the proposal. 
 
 “I don’t want to be the facilitator of a disastrous process and plan,” he said. 
 
 Still, most Republicans endorsed the deal, even if somewhat reluctantly. “I think this is a principled call by leadership and it has the support of the con­ference,” said Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.), one of Boehner’s closest friends. 
 
 Democrats, meanwhile, were united against any attempt by Republicans to extract concessions now, especially with the larger fight over the debt limit swiftly approaching. 
 
 “The bottom line is very simple,” said Sen. Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.). “You negotiate on this, they will up the ante for the debt limit.” 
 
 Ed O’Keefe, Rosalind S. Helderman, Jackie Kucinich and Jeff Simon contributed to this report. ||||| Racing to make a deadline, the Senate passed legislation Wednesday night to avoid a threatened national default and end the 16-day partial government shutdown along the strict terms set by President Barack Obama. 
 
 Speaker of the House Rep. John Boehner, R-Ohio, walks past reporters after a meeting with House Republicans on Capitol Hill on Wednesday, Oct. 16, 2013 in Washington. The partial government shutdown is... (Associated Press) 
 
 White House Press Secretary Jay Carney smiles as he arrives for the daily press briefing at the White House in Washington, Wednesday, Oct. 16, 2013, after lawmakers reached a bipartisan deal to avoid... (Associated Press) 
 
 Senate Majority Leader Sen. Harry Reid, D-Nev., walks to his office after arriving on Capitol Hill on Wednesday, Oct. 16, 2013 in Washington. Aides to Senate Democrat Majority Leader Harry Reid and Republican... (Associated Press) 
 
 Activists perform a "Die In" to protest government shutdown and proposed cuts to Medicare, Social Security benefits, as well as child care, food, disability, and senior advocate programs outside of the... (Associated Press) 
 
 Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, speaks to reporters waiting outside a closed-door meeting of Senate Republicans as news emerged that leaders reached a last-minute agreement to avert a threatened Treasury default... (Associated Press) 
 
 Tea party conservatives Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, and Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, right, walk to a meeting as the Senate prepares to vote on a measure to avert a threatened Treasury default and reopen the government... (Associated Press) 
 
 Senate Minority Leader Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., walks to the Senate floor after agreeing to the framework of a deal to avoid default and reopen the government on Capitol Hill on Wednesday, Oct. 16,... (Associated Press) 
 
 Speaker of the House Rep. John Boehner, R-Ohio, pumps his fist as he walks past reporters after a meeting with House Republicans on Capitol Hill on Wednesday, Oct. 16, 2013 in Washington. The partial... (Associated Press) 
 
 The 81-18 vote sent the measure to a waiting House. Expected passage there late in the evening would clear it for Obama's signature _ the final act in an epic political drama that put the economy's health at risk. 
 
 The legislation would permit the Treasury to borrow normally through Feb. 7 or perhaps a month longer, and fund the government through Jan. 15. More than two million federal workers would be paid _ those who had remained on the job and those who had been furloughed. 
 
 The stock market surged higher at the prospect of an end to the crisis that also had threatened to shake confidence in the U.S. economy overseas. 
 
 The White House embraced the bill, worked out by the Senate's two party leaders, saying in a statement it would "protect the full faith and credit of the United States and end the government shutdown." 
 
 Republicans had other concerns. "We fought the good fight. We just didn't win," conceded House Speaker John Boehner as lawmakers lined up to vote on a bill that includes nothing for Republicans demanding to eradicate or scale back Obama's signature health care overhaul. 
 
 "The compromise we reached will provide our economy with the stability it desperately needs," said Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, declaring that the nation "came to the brink of disaster" before sealing an agreement. 
 
 Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell, who negotiated the deal with Reid, emphasized that it preserved a round of spending cuts negotiated two years ago with Obama and Democrats. As a result, he said, "government spending has declined for two years in a row" for the first time since the Korean War. "And we're not going back on this agreement," he added. 
 
 Only a temporary truce, the measure set a timeframe of early next winter for the next likely clash between Obama and the Republicans over spending and borrowing. 
 
 But for now, government was lurching back to life. In one example, officials met to discuss plans for gearing back up at the Department of Housing and Urban Development, where 307 employees remained at work during the partial shutdown and more than 8,000 were furloughed. 
 
 After weeks of gridlock, the measure had support from the White House, most if not all Democrats in Congress and many Republicans fearful of the economic impact of a default. 
 
 Boehner and the rest of the top GOP leadership told their rank and file they would vote for the measure, and there was little or no doubt it would pass both houses and reach the White House in time for Obama's signature before the administration's 11:59 p.m. Oct. 17 deadline. 
 
 That was when Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew said the government would reach the current $16.7 trillion debt limit and could no longer borrow to meet its obligations. 
 
 Tea party-aligned lawmakers who triggered the shutdown that began on Oct. 1 said they would vote against the legislation. Significantly, though, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and others agreed not to use the Senate's cumbersome 18th century rules to slow the bill's progress. 
 
 In remarks on the Senate floor, Cruz said the measure was "a terrible deal" and criticized fellow Republicans for lining up behind it. 
 
 McConnell made no mention of the polls showing that the shutdown and flirtation with default have sent Republicans' public approval plummeting and have left the party badly split nationally as well as in his home state of Kentucky. He received a prompt reminder, though. 
 
 "When the stakes are highest Mitch McConnell can always be counted on to sell out conservatives," said Matt Bevin, who is challenging the party leader from the right in a 2014 election primary. 
 
 More broadly, national tea party groups and their allies underscored the internal divide. The Club for Growth urged lawmakers to vote against the congressional measure, and said it would factor in the organization's decision when it decides which candidates to support in midterm elections next year. 
 
 "There are no significant changes to Obamacare, nothing on the other major entitlements that are racked with trillions in unfunded liabilities, and no meaningful spending cuts either. If this bill passes, Congress will kick the can down the road, yet again," the group said. 
 
 Even so, support for Boehner appeared solid inside his fractious rank and file. "There are no plots, plans or rumblings that I know of. And I was part of one in January, so I'd probably be on the whip list for that," said Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky. 
 
 The U.S. Chamber of Commerce came out in favor of the bill. 
 
 Simplicity at the end, there was next to nothing in the agreement beyond authorization for the Treasury to resume borrowing and funding for the government to reopen. 
 
 House and Senate negotiators are to meet this fall to see if progress is possible on a broad deficit-reduction compromise of the type that has proved elusive in the current era of divided government. 
 
 Additionally, Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius is to be required to produce a report stating that her agency is capable of verifying the incomes of individuals who apply for federal subsidies under the health care law known as Obamacare. 
 
 Obama had insisted repeatedly he would not pay "ransom" by yielding to Republican demands for significant changes to the health care overhaul in exchange for funding the government and permitting Treasury the borrowing latitude to pay the nation's bills. 
 
 Other issues fell by the wayside in a final deal, including a Republican proposal for the suspension of a medical device tax in Obamacare and a Democratic call to delay a fee on companies for everyone who receives health coverage under an employer-sponsored plan. 
 
 The gradual withering of Republicans' Obamacare-related demands defined the arc of the struggle that has occupied virtually all of Congress' time for the past three weeks. 
 
 The shutdown began on Oct. 1 after Cruz and his tea party allies in the House demanded the defunding of the health care law as a trade for providing essential government funding. 
 
 Obama and Reid refused, then refused again and again as Boehner gradually scaled back Republican demands. 
 
 The shutdown initially idled about 800,000 workers, but that soon fell to about 350,000 after Congress agreed to let furloughed Pentagon employees return to work. While there was widespread inconvenience, the mail was delivered, Medicare continued to pay doctors who treated seniors and there was no interruption in Social Security benefits. 
 
 Still, national parks were closed to the detriment of tourists and local businesses, government research scientists were sent home and Food and Drug Administration inspectors worked only sporadically. 
 
 Obama and Boehner both came to the same conclusion _ that they would allow the shutdown to persist for two weeks, until it became politically possible to reopen government and address the threat of default at the same time. 
 
 As Republican polls sank, Boehner refused to let the House vote on legislation to reopen the entire government, insisting on a piecemeal approach that the White House and Reid rejected as insufficient. 
 
 As the Oct. 17 debt-limit deadline approached, there were warnings from European officials as well as Cabinet members and bankers in this country that failure to raise the debt limit invited an economic disaster far worse than the near-meltdown of 2008. 
 
 On Tuesday, the Fitch credit rating agency said it was reviewing its AAA rating on U.S. government debt for possible downgrade. 
 
 By then, the endgame was underway. 
 
 Late last week, Obama met with Boehner and House Republicans at the White House. The session resulted in brief follow-up talks in which GOP aides suggested easing the across-the-board spending cuts in exchange for changes in benefit programs such as making Medicare more expensive for better-off beneficiaries. 
 
 After that faltered, Reid and McConnell announced over the weekend they were seeking a deal to solve the crises, and expressed hope they could quickly come to an agreement. 
 
 That effort was suspended on Tuesday, a day of suspense in which Boehner made one last stab at a conservatives' solution. When his rank and file refused to coalesce around any proposal, he gave up and McConnell and Reid returned to their labors. 
 
 ___ 
 
 Associated Press writers Donna Cassata, Alan Fram, Andrew Taylor, Henry C. Jackson, Bradley Klapper, Laurie Kellman, Julie Pace and Jim Kuhnhenn contributed to this story.
– Washington is braced for the first government shutdown in 17 years, which will happen at midnight tonight unless lawmakers manage to break the deadlock over funding and hammer out a deal. Here's what to expect from a day of drama in DC: The House has passed legislation to delay ObamaCare for a year and repeal a tax on medical devices, so the measure will return to the Senate this afternoon, just hours before the shutdown is due to kick in. Harry Reid is expected to table the anti-ObamaCare amendments with a simple Democratic majority and quickly send it back to the House—but if any opportunity arises for Senate Republicans to use delaying tactics, expect Ted Cruz to lead the way, the Wall Street Journal predicts. There's a chance of a straight up-or-down vote in the House, but if it becomes clear that it will be impossible to break the deadlock by midnight—which appears to be the likeliest scenario—the partial shutdown could still be averted if lawmakers pass a short-term funding bill to buy another week or so of debating time. So who will blink first? Neither Reid nor John Boehner appears likely to give way. Reid is determined to play hardball and not give an inch on ObamaCare, Politico reports. Reid and his allies believe that giving any concessions now will only lead to bigger concessions to avoid a debt default next month—and they think the backlash from a government shutdown will hit the GOP hardest. Boehner, meanwhile, will face the wrath of his party's conservatives if he gives way too soon—but polls show the public will blame his House Republicans if there is a shutdown. If there is a shutdown, it won't be an abrupt halt to government, but more "like a spending freeze that will gradually spread through the government like ice forming in water," Quartz explains. Federal employees, 800,000 of whom will be sent home without pay, will be the first affected, and the shutdown will also affect scientific research, trade negotiations, and the federal programs that guarantee home loans and provide capital to business. Air traffic controllers will still be at work, however, and agencies that deal with national security and law enforcement are exempt from the shutdown. A shutdown of a few days might not do too much damage, but experts warn that the national economy will take a serious hit if it is prolonged. In Washington, DC, however, even a brief shutdown will cost the district an estimated $200 million a day—and affect basic services like trash collection. "This is serious," the director of George Mason University’s Center for Regional Analysis tells the Washington Post. "The national economy may not notice a shutdown much unless it lasts three or four weeks. But for the Washington area, this is a tsunami."