After months of waiting for Donald Trump’s decline, Republican insiders now concede the poll leader could take two of the first four early voting states, though they caution his hold on Iowa is weak. 
 
 That’s according to the POLITICO Caucus, our weekly poll of the top strategists, operatives and activists in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada. 
 
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 For this Thanksgiving holiday week, POLITICO analyzed seven months-worth of responses to our weekly benchmark question: Who would win your state if the voting were today? The result offers a snapshot of the current state of primary play — with Trump, Cruz, and Rubio grappling for wins in the early states — and chronicles Republicans’ slow acceptance of the real estate mogul as a contender with staying power. 
 
 Roughly three-in-four GOP insiders in New Hampshire and South Carolina, many of whom have been repeatedly and consistently skeptical of Trump’s chances, now say he would win their states if their primaries were held today. 
 
 “For the first time, I think the Trump phenomenon is becoming real,” a South Carolina Republican said. 
 
 “I do not think the media or the party establishment have a real grasp on how deep the anger and frustration is around the country,” that insider said when most recently surveyed last week. “After what have been ‘missteps’ by Trump in comparison of previous elections, he seems to have only strengthened. I still do not know if he can sustain it into the New Year — but after the Paris attacks, his stance on illegal immigration and unverified people coming into our nation has real impact.” 
 
 But his hold on Iowa and Nevada is more tenuous, according to insiders who note those states’ caucuses require significant organizational muscle to produce a win. 
 
 GOP insiders now have Cruz nudging Trump out of the lead in Iowa. That prediction came even before a Quinnipiac University poll this week showed the Texan running neck and neck with Trump. Neurosurgeon Ben Carson was the only other candidate to register significantly on this question. It’s the first time Cruz has led on this measure — after months of Trump and, briefly, Carson in front. 
 
 “I remain skeptical that Donald Trump's organization could turn out enough supporters today to win, and Ben Carson is fading on growing concerns that he's simply not up for the job,” said an Iowa Republican. “Cruz has been building — and continues to build — a solid organization. I'm not saying it won't change, although I've thought for some time now that Ted Cruz will win the Iowa caucuses — but this is the first week I'd put him on top in Iowa.” 
 
 Still, the third of Iowa insiders who said Trump would win insisted he has built the campaign infrastructure to turn out his voters, even if they aren’t traditional caucus-goers. “Trump still has the best ground game and organization in the state,” one insider said. 
 
 In Nevada, insiders were divided between Trump and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who has an organization in the state built somewhat on his appeal among Mormon voters, who made up about a quarter of the electorate, according to entrance polls. Rubio has consistently polled second in Nevada among GOP insiders since The POLITICO Caucus expanded there in early October. 
 
 “[Rubio] continues to have the best structure in the state that will actually turn people out on caucus day,” said one Nevada Republican. 
 
 Trump wasn’t always in such a dominating position. Before Trump entered the race in June, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who ended his campaign in September, was the odds-on favorite in neighboring Iowa: In weekly surveys from mid-April through the end of June, Walker was picked as the winner of the Iowa caucuses by more than 70 percent of Republican insiders. In New Hampshire, Bush was picked by two-thirds of insiders over the same time period. 
 
 The Caucus expanded to South Carolina and Nevada in early October — well after Trump’s surge to the top of the polls. But results have consistently shown Trump stronger in South Carolina — more than three-in-five insiders in October said he would win there at the time — than in Nevada, where only a plurality, about 45 percent, picked Trump. 
 
 Democrats: Clinton reasserts commanding advantage over Sanders 
 
 Hillary Clinton has stymied Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders’ summer surge, according to Democratic insiders in the same four early states surveyed by POLITICO. Insiders said overwhelmingly in all four states that Clinton would win if the caucuses or primaries were held today. 
 
 While members of The POLITICO Caucus have always leaned more toward Clinton than the public opinion polls, Sanders had closed the gap — especially in New Hampshire — over the summer. In late June and early July, roughly a quarter of New Hampshire Caucus members said Sanders would win the first-in-the-nation primary there if it were held that day. 
 
 But now only a handful of insiders say Sanders would win today in their states. “Hillary's organization in Nevada is large and very competent in its work preparing for our caucus,” said one Democrat. “Bernie might actually be more popular among active Democrats.” 
 
 A small fraction of insiders said the fervor of Sanders’ supporters will carry the day. “Sanders has a lot of working class support,” said an Iowa Democrat. “The proof of his support, though, will be evident at the precinct caucuses.” 
 
 Back in New Hampshire, where Sanders had posted his strongest leads in the polls, Democratic insiders are convinced Clinton has halted Sanders’ ascent. 
 
 “Sanders has lost momentum,” said one Democratic insider. “The race has become about more than income inequality, and his more limited focus/message — in contrast to Clinton's breadth and depth — has become a weakness. Also, as voters get more engaged and serious, the electability factor is also starting to become more important, helping Clinton [and] hurting Sanders.” 
 
 Another Democrat in New Hampshire was even more blunt, writing simply: “It is so over.” ||||| 9:48 p.m. Cruz and Rubio are still locked in a tight race for second place. 
 
 9:45 p.m.Ted Cruz spoke with supporters from his South Carolina headquarters Saturday. "Friends, once again, we have made history," Cruz said, noting that "right now we are effectively tied for second place" with rival Marco Rubio. 
 
 He addressed Bush's withdrawal from the race at the beginning of his speech, saying the former Florida governor "brought honor and dignity" to the race. Cruz said Bush was "a man who didn't go to the gutter and engage in insults and attacks." 
 
 "We don't know the exact results right now," he said, "Right now, we are effectively tied for second place." 
 
 9:32 p.m.Speaking to supporters in Wakefield, Massachusetts, Ohio Gov. John Kasich addressed the results coming out of South Carolina's Republican primary Saturday night. 
 
 "We came roaring out of New Hampshire," Kasich said, referring to his strong second-place finish behind Donald Trump in the first-in-the-nation primary state. "And tonight one more time, we have defied and overcome expectations in the state of South Carolina." 
 
 "For all the people watching -- you fasten your seatbelts, please," he said. 
 
 Kasich is trailing in fifth place in South Carolina, with just eight percent of the vote, according to CBS News exit polls. Former neurosurgeon Ben Carson is the only candidate behind him, with seven percent of support. 
 
 9:23 p.m. Marco Rubio came out to speak to his supporters even though the race between him and Cruz was still too close to call. They are both battling for second place. 
 
 "This has been a three-person race and we will win the nomination," said Rubio, who congratulated Bush on a hard-fought campaign and called him "the greatest governor in the history of Florida." 
 
 Rubio said the 2016 campaign has been a "long road" and there were many people on the campaign when it first kicked off. 
 
 "Practically speaking, it's down to three," he said, adding that his campaign provides the best chance to unify the GOP and unify the country. 
 
 8:54 p.m. Donald Trump addresses his supporters in South Carolina. 
 
 "We are going to start winning for our country," Trump said. 
 
 "It's tough, it's nasty, it's mean, it's vicious. It's beautiful. When you win, it's beautiful," he added of campaigning. 
 
 The businessman said he was headed to Nevada to campaign Sunday and predicted he would do "terrific" both there and in the SEC primary, the collection of southern states that vote on Super Tuesday. 
 
 While he congratulated rivals Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio by name, he neglected to mention another opponent: Jeb Bush, who withdrew from the White House race Saturday night. 
 
 Trump was joined by several family members on the stage, including wife Melania Trump. 
 
 "He will be the best president," Mrs. Trump told South Carolina supporters. 
 
 After Trump congratulated rivals Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio for doing "a very good job," the audience booed. But then he promised, "We go back to war tomorrow morning." 
 
 The billionaire's victory in South Carolina's GOP primary can be explained in part by the way he edged out his opponents in key demographic groups. 
 
 Donald Trump projected to win South Carolina GOP primary 
 
 Trump won among men (35 percent) compared to Cruz's 24 percent and Rubio's 22 percent. Interestingly, he also did better than all his opponents among women, winning 28 percent of the vote to Cruz and Rubio's 24 percent respectively. 
 
 Three-quarters of those who turned out in the primary were 45 years of age or older. Among these older voters, Trump won 33 percent to Rubio and Cruz who split evenly at 22 percent each. 
 
 Another key constituency that helped catapult Trump to victory is those who have less than a college education. Forty-six percent of those who turned out do not have a college degree and of those voters, 40% supported Trump compared with 27 percent for Cruz and 17 percent for Rubio. 
 
 Finally, Trump did very well with white evangelicals who make up a key voting group in South Carolina's Republican party. While Cruz was expected to do very well with this group, Trump edged him out 32 percent to 27 percent. 
 
 8:40 p.m. Jeb Bush drops out of the White House race. 
 
 "I am proud of the campaign that we have run to unify our country and to advocate conservative solutions that would give more Americans the opportunity to rise up and reach their god given potential," he told his supporters after South Carolina's GOP primary. "But the people of Iowa and New Hampshire and South Carolina have spoken and I really respect their decision so tonight I am suspending my campaign." 
 
 Bush was joined by South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham and Columba Bush on stage in Columbia, South Carolina. 
 
 Republican U.S. presidential candidate Jeb Bush (L) is applauded by U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham (R) as he arrives to announce that he is ending his campaign for the White House by suspending his campaign for the Republican presidential nomination at his South Carolina primary night party in Columbia, South Carolina, February 20, 2016. REUTERS 
 
 8:28 p.m. More than 70 percent of voters said South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley's endorsement of Rubio was not an important factor in their vote while a quarter said it was an important factor. 
 
 8:21 p.m. GOP voters see Trump as the candidate who is in the best position to handle the economy. Forty-four percent said Trump would handle it best while 20 percent said the same for Cruz and 14 percent for Rubio. 
 
 8:00 p.m. Cruz and Rubio are locked in a tight battle for second. 
 
 7:50 p.m. About three-quarters of GOP voters described themselves today as born-again or evangelical Christians. Of that group, Trump won slightly more of the vote, 30 percent, than Cruz, who got 29 percent. 
 
 Trump also did better than any of the other candidates with those voters who aren't evangelical or born-again. 
 
 7:36 p.m. Cruz and Rubio are now battling for second place. 
 
 7:30 p.m. CBS News now projects that Trump will win South Carolina's GOP primary. 
 
 7:29 p.m. CBS News reports Trump has a narrow edge over Cruz and Rubio. 
 
 7:19 p.m. More than half of Republican voters, 53 percent, said they feel betrayed by their own party. Forty-four percent said they don't feel betrayed. 
 
 7 p.m.Donald Trump, Ted Cruz and and Marco Rubio are locked in a three-way race, far ahead of the rest of the pack, according to CBS News exit polling. 
 
 6:09 p.m. Forty-one percent of voters said Trump is running the most unfair campaign while a third said the same of Ted Cruz. 
 
 5:58 p.m. More than half of Republicans said they made up their mind about who they were going to support last month, or even before that. On the other hand, 45 percent said they decided in the last week, 24 percent decided in the last few days and 14 percent made their decision today. 
 
 5:52 p.m. More than 95 percent of GOP primary voters said they are either somewhat or very concerned about the future of the nation's economy. Two percent said they are not concerned with the economy. 
 
 5:44 p.m. More than half of GOP voters, 53 percent, said they support offering illegal immigrants working in the U.S. the chance to apply for legal status. Forty-three percent, meanwhile, said those who are in the U.S. illegally should be deported and sent back to their country of origin. 
 
 5:41 p.m. GOP voters in South Carolina are almost evenly split on whether they prefer a candidate from the establishment vs. a political outsider. Forty-eight percent said they prefer that the candidate has experience and 46 percent said they prefer someone from outside the establishment. This closely mirrors what voter in New Hampshire told pollsters. 
 
 5:33 p.m. Three-quarters of GOP primary voters support Donald Trump's proposal to block Muslims from entering the United States. Twenty-three percent, on the other hand, said they oppose the proposed ban. 
 
 5:27 p.m. More than half of voters said they are dissatisfied with the way the government is working and 40 percent said they are angry. Only 7 percent said they are satisfied with how the federal government is working. 
 
 5:23 p.m. More than three quarters of voters in the South Carolina primary say it matters either a great deal or somewhat that a candidate share his religious values. Less than a quarter, by contrast, say it doesn't matter at all. 
 
 5:00 p.m. Early exit polling results is beginning to come in from South Carolina's GOP primary soon. The state's Republican voters have been showing up to their polling sites throughout the day to cast ballots in the GOP's third presidential nominating contest. 
 
 Early exit polls in South Carolina suggest that voters see terrorism as the most important issue facing the country (32 percent), followed by those who see the economy (28 percent) and government spending (27 percent) as the most critical issues. In contrast only one out of 10 respondents said that immigration is the most important issue facing the nation. 
 
 Voters are choosing among Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, Ben Carson and John Kasich. 
 
 Polls are slated to close at 7 p.m. EST. Meanwhile, the results are coming in quickly from Nevada's Democratic caucuses. 
 
 Trump has consistently led the GOP pack in South Carolina, though some recent polls have indicated a tightening race. A Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist poll released Friday, for example, found he now only leads his closest rival, Cruz, by five percentage points with 28 percent support. A Bloomberg Politics pollreleased Wednesday found Trump with a 19-percentage-point advantage over Cruz. Thirty-six percent said they back Trump and 17 percent support Cruz. 
 
 A CBS News national poll released Thursday found Trump with a 17-percentage-point lead over Cruz. 
 
 Cruz won the Iowa caucuses earlier this month, and Trump won New Hampshire's GOP primary. 
 
 CBS News Poll Analyst Jeanne Zaino and Reena Flores contributed to this story.
– Donald Trump's antics last week, including attacks on a disabled reporter and questionable recollections of 9/11, may have been the last straw for some supporters, the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll suggests. The poll put his support at 31% for the week ending on Nov. 27, down from 43% a week earlier, marking Trump's biggest poll drop since he became the front-runner in July, though Ben Carson isn't closing the gap: His numbers have also dropped and he is now a distant second at 15%, according to the poll, with Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz tied for third at 8% apiece and Jeb Bush fifth at 7%. But even with the latest fall, Trump's staying power has surprised Republican insiders, who now admit that he could win early voting states including Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. "I do not think the media or the party establishment have a real grasp on how deep the anger and frustration is around the country," a South Carolina Republican tells Politico. "I still do not know if he can sustain it into the New Year—but after the Paris attacks, his stance on illegal immigration and unverified people coming into our nation has real impact." (Four GOP rivals are getting equal time from NBC for Trump's Saturday Night Live appearance.)