Updated and corrected. 
 
 On a muggy Fourth of July night just outside Austin, Rep. Beto O’Rourke walked on stage wearing a light blue button-down, with a Texas-size American flag in the background. But rather than one of his campaign rallies in his Senate bid against Republican Ted Cruz, the Democrat was in front of the thousands that came out for Willie Nelson’s Fourth of July Picnic, an annual celebration of country music started by the legendary singer 45 years ago. 
 
 Met with a mix of wild cheers and a fair share of booing on the soggy holiday, O’Rourke explained why this Independence Day mattered even more to the country, expressing hope that “the big, bold, confident, strong people of the state of Texas” would help show the rest of the United States that there’s no need to be afraid of immigrants, Muslims or anyone else who might be considered different. 
 
 “It’s my honor to be here tonight, to be able to work with so many of you,” he said just before the fireworks, “to be with legends like Ray [Benson] and Willie, who ensure that in times of disappointment and darkness that we meet that with power and joy and rock-and-roll music.” 
 
 Soon after, O’Rourke, whose punk-rock roots would later be rehashed by the Cruz campaign, shed his button-down for a black T-shirt and guitar and joined Nelson and the rest of his band on stage for spirited renditions of “Roll Me Up and Smoke Me When I Die” and “Will the Circle Be Unbroken” to close out the show. 
 
 For Nelson, the jam session with O’Rourke was the latest in a career filled with activism and liberal-leaning political stances that have largely gone against the norm for country-music culture. 
 
 But for some of Nelson’s fans, his partnership with O’Rourke was the breaking point. After Nelson announced Wednesday that he would be headlining a Sept. 29 rally for O’Rourke in Austin, fans have taken to social media to boycott and publicly disown the country legend. 
 
 On Nelson’s Facebook page, where he posted an article from news outlet Austin360 with the announcement, some of the most striking remarks accuse the performer of aligning with what they believe to be the “socialist” positions of O’Rourke. 
 
 “Goodbye Willie,” David R. Williams posted on Facebook. “I don’t support socialist commies! You’re not going to advertise on my FB page either.” He added: “Like we say in Texas, Now Git.” 
 
 “Open your eyes Willie!” Claudia Kirby Heathington wrote. “Beto is a Socialist who probably has lied to you. This is a real shame you support him.” 
 
 “Wow what a let down,” Melanie Philip said. “You would pick a socialist agenda and an Anti American fellow like BETO, shame on you.” 
 
 One man was so disgusted with Nelson that he offered up his ticket to one of the legend’s upcoming shows. 
 
 “I am no longer willing to watch that hippie guitarist who supports that … socialist running for Senate,” Dakota Bell tweeted Wednesday. 
 
 Someone buy my Willie Nelson ticket for Friday, November 16. I am no longer willing to watch that hippie guitarist who supports that damn socialist running for Senate. — Dakota Boll (@BollDakota) September 13, 2018 
 
 Others were much more supportive of Nelson and questioned those skeptical of the country legend. 
 
 “Not sure what went wrong in your life that would make you insult Willie Nelson,” tweeted Wheeler Walker Jr., a country singer and songwriter, on Thursday. “You can argue politics all you want but you cannot argue Willie.” 
 
 Not sure what went wrong in your life that would make you insult Willie Nelson. You can argue politics all you want but you cannot argue Willie. — Wheeler Walker, Jr. (@WheelerWalkerJr) September 13, 2018 
 
 In a news release announcing the concert, Nelson offered insight as to why he’s backing O’Rourke. 
 
 “My wife Annie and I have met and spoken with Beto and we share his concern for the direction things are headed,” Nelson said in the release. “Beto embodies what is special about Texas, an energy and an integrity that is completely genuine.” 
 
 The outrage comes as O’Rourke and Cruz are entangled in a tight Senate race, described by the incumbent as a “dogfight,” that has gained national spotlight in recent months. 
 
 Nelson’s political activism goes back decades, with his support of the environment, same-sex marriage and, famously, marijuana legalization. In 1980, President Jimmy Carter invited him to perform at the White House. Nelson later said that during the visit he smoked what he called a “big fat Austin torpedo” on the roof of the White House. He has supported President Barack Obama, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Hillary Clinton in recent years. 
 
 He even released a song last year inspired by President Trump, called “Delete and Fast-Forward.” 
 
 “Delete and fast-forward the news. The truth is the truth, but believe what you choose,” Nelson sings. “When we blow the whole world back to where it began, just delete and fast-forward again.” 
 
 Correction. The original version of this story incorrectly said this is the first public concert Nelson has held for a political candidate. The story and the headline have been corrected. 
 
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 ‘I’m Julie Chen Moonves’: Les Moonves’s wife stands by him in return to CBS ||||| After bringing Beto O’Rourke onstage during his Fourth of July Picnic this summer, Willie Nelson is doubling down on his support of the U.S. Senate candidate, headlining a rally and concert set for Sept. 29 at Auditorium Shores. 
 
 Also on the bill are Leon Bridges, Joe Ely, Carrie Rodriguez, Tameca Jones, and Nelson’s sons Lukas and Micah Nelson. (Update, Sept. 19: An initial report of Leon Bridges being on the bill was unconfirmed when the show was announced on Sept. 12, but Bridges confirmed on Sept. 19 that he will be on the bill.) 
 
 Admission is free but requires an RSVP via O’Rourke’s website. 
 
 A press release from Nelson’s publicist describes the event as “the first public concert Nelson has held for a political candidate.” 
 
 “My wife Annie and I have met and spoken with Beto and we share his concern for the direction things are headed,” Nelson said in the press release. “Beto embodies what is special about Texas, an energy and an integrity that is completely genuine.” 
 
 Nelson’s new album “My Way,” featuring standards associated with the repertoire of Frank Sinatra, comes out Friday on Legacy Recordings. 
 
 RELATED: More Willie Nelson news on Austin360 
 
 Will Beto jam with Willie again? That’s what happened during the encore of the July Fourth Picnic, when O’Rourke joined in on acoustic guitar for the finale of “Will the Circle Be Unbroken” and “I’ll Fly Away.” 
 
 So @BetoORourke not only stuck around to sing with @WillieNelson, he played guitar with him. pic.twitter.com/HZdod0WLqr — Peter Blackstock (@Blackstock360) July 5, 2018 ||||| Beto O'Rourke, the Democratic candidate for Senate in Texas, at an event in Austin in September. (Erich Schlegel/Reuters) 
 
 No doubt about it: Rep. Beto O’Rourke (D-Tex.) is a Democratic star the likes of which the party hasn’t seen in a Senate candidate in years. But is he too hot for the Democratic Party’s own good? 
 
 On Friday, his Senate campaign announced it raised $38 million in just the past three months. 
 
 That will go down in history. What O’Rourke raised in three months is what some presidential campaigns raise. It blasted through a fundraising record ($22 million in one quarter) that no Senate candidate has been able to touch in 18 years. 
 
 To put that money in perspective in Texas, $38 million was more than half of what O’Rourke — who was already raising insane sums of money — raised during the rest of his entire campaign. The $62 million he has raised so far is more than twice as much as his opponent, incumbent GOP Sen. Ted Cruz, has. 
 
 'It’s an astonishing number — and done with all people, no PACs," said Adam Bozzi with the End Citizens United PAC, which supports candidates like O’Rourke who have said no to political action money from special interests. O’Rourke’s campaign didn’t share much detail about his fundraising, but he did say the contributions averaged $47 from roughly 802,000 people, about half of whom were in Texas. 
 
 But that does not mean O'Rourke will win a Senate seat in Texas. He's still behind in the polls, and the fundamentals of the conservative state suggest it might not be ready to elect a Democrat to statewide office. 
 
 And if a fired-up Democratic base is so willing to pour money into big Senate races, you could argue that at least some of that money would be more useful going to fellow Democratic candidates in red-leaning states like North Dakota and West Virginia and Montana and Tennessee, all of whom have a much better chance of winning than O’Rourke does. 
 
 The Texas Senate race is still remarkably competitive. But let’s put this $38 million — and O’Rourke’s chances in Texas — in perspective. 
 
 He’s behind in the polls: O’Rourke hasn’t led in a single high-quality public poll since this race began. Some polls this spring and summer had the race too close to call. But since September, Cruz has been well ahead. A new Quinnipiac University poll shows Cruz ahead of O’Rourke by 9 percentage points, mirroring Republican private polling showing Cruz ahead. Polling closer to Election Day tends to be more accurate since more likely voters start paying attention. 
 
 Money can mean momentum, but it doesn’t always equal momentum: In 2014, Democrat Wendy Davis launched a buzzy run for governor in Texas. At one point she outraised her Republican opponent (though not nearly as much as O’Rourke is outpacing Cruz), earning her lots of national headlines and even more buzz. 
 
 She ended up losing the governor’s race by 20 points. It was the worst showing of a Democratic candidate for governor in the state in 16 years. 
 
 That’s not to say O’Rourke is going to lose as Davis did. But that a Democrat in Texas can raise tens of millions and still lose badly underscores our next point, that: 
 
 The fundamentals in the state still favor Republicans: There is plenty of evidence that Texas Democrats are motivated to vote in November — not an easy thing to do in a state where general elections are usually foregone conclusions for the Republican. 
 
 In this spring’s primary, Democrats doubled their turnout from 2014 to 2016, breaking 1 million voters. At the state level, Democrats are challenging Gov. Greg Abbott (R), 14 of 15 state Senate seats and nearly 90 percent of the state’s 150 state House seats. Texas Democrats haven’t put up that kind of defense in a quarter-century. 
 
 “The energy in the Lone Star State is palpable,” Democratic National Committee Chairman Tom Perez said. 
 
 But Republicans set their own primary vote record with 1.5 million votes. And they didn’t have to stretch that much to do it; 1.5 million votes was a slight uptick from the last midterm election cycle. Cruz got twice as many votes in his Republican primary than O’Rourke did in the Democratic one. And O’Rourke ceded 38 percent points to two much lesser-known, less-hyped challengers. 
 
 Democrats in Texas say that if the state votes like it looks (meaning minority and younger voters vote Democratic and vote in high numbers), it can be blue. But so far there’s little evidence that’s happening, at least to the degree Democrats need. 
 
 [Signs of the blue wave in Texas? Not so fast.] 
 
 There are a lot of other places this money might be more useful: One GOP operative calculates that what O’Rourke raised in three months is more than three times what Democrats have spent in North Dakota so far. It’s more than double what Democrats have spent in Tennessee and West Virginia. 
 
 Not every state is created equal, of course. It costs more to buy TV ads in Dallas than in, say, Fargo, N.D. But those three Senate races all have something in common that O’Rourke’s doesn’t: The Democrat is more likely to win. 
 
 Texas doesn’t even make the top 10 of the Fix’s latest rankings of the most competitive Senate races. Democratic Sens. Heidi Heitkamp (N.D.), Joe Manchin III (W.Va.), Jon Tester (Mont.), Bill Nelson (Fla.) and Democratic candidate Phil Bredesen in Tennessee are all on the list. Some of those candidates, especially Heitkamp, are fighting for their political careers. And their races are crucial to helping Democrats take back the Senate. 
 
 [Why is Heidi Heitkamp voting against Kavanaugh?] 
 
 Republicans to whom The Fix spoke couldn’t be happier to see so much Democratic money go into Texas instead. 
 
 “Every dollar that’s going to Beto," said one Republican operative watching the race closely and granted anonymity to speak candidly, “is a dollar that is not going to Florida or Montana or North Dakota.” ||||| Republican Ted Cruz leads Democrat Beto O’Rourke 51 percent to 45 percent in the Texas race for the U.S. Senate, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll. Libertarian Neal Dikeman was the choice of 2 percent of likely voters and another 2 percent said they would vote for someone else. 
 
 Democratic and Republican voters, as might be expected, lined up strongly behind their respective party’s candidates. But independent voters, a group that often leans to the Republicans in statewide elections, broke for O’Rourke, 51 percent to Cruz’s 39 percent. 
 
 “The major Senate candidates were trying to mobilize their partisans, without a lot of attempt to get voters to cross over. And it looks like they’ve done that,” said Jim Henson, co-director of the poll and head of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin. “If you look for Republican defections to Beto O’Rourke, they’re not there. But the independents break to the Democrat instead of the Republican in that race.” 
 
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 The poll of likely Texas voters was conducted before early voting in the general election began this week. 
 
 In several other races for statewide office, Republicans hold double-digit leads over their Democratic opponents. 
 
 Gov. Greg Abbott maintains a comfortable 19-percentage point lead over Democratic challenger Lupe Valdez, with 56 percent backing him to her 37 percent. Mark Tippetts, a Libertarian, attracted 3 percent support and 4 percent said they would vote for someone else. 
 
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 In that race, independent voters lined up with Abbott, 59 percent to 30 percent. And Valdez’s support among Democrats, while strong, didn’t match O’Rourke’s. Where the Senate candidate had 94 percent of Democrats behind him, 82 percent of Democrats said they would vote for the party’s gubernatorial candidate. 
 
 Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick leads Democratic challenger Mike Collier by 18 percentage points, with 53 percent of the vote to Collier’s 35 percent. Libertarian Kerry McKennon drew 5 percent; 7 percent of voters said they’d prefer someone else. 
 
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 Attorney General Ken Paxton’s race is slightly closer; he leads Democrat Justin Nelson by 12 percentage points, 48 percent to 36 percent. Michael Ray Harris, the Libertarian in that contest, got 6 percent, and 10 percent said they would vote for someone else. 
 
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 “Abbott does better than other Republicans with Hispanic voters — even running against a Latina,” said Josh Blank, manager of polling and research for the Texas Politics Project at UT. Valdez had the support of 52 percent of Hispanics to Abbott’s 39 percent. Compare that with O’Rourke at 60 percent to Cruz’s 33 percent; Collier’s 44 percent to Patrick’s 40 percent; and Nelson’s 44 percent to Paxton’s 30 percent. 
 
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 “For every other race, the independents are in the Republican column,” Blank said. “Also, the other Democrats in the poll do not have the same level of support from Democratic voters that O’Rourke has.” He added that, “In the end, most of the Democrats voting for O’Rourke are going to vote for Valdez, Collier and Nelson.” 
 
 A handful of the state’s races for Congress have been very competitive this year; a “generic ballot” for congressional races suggests the reason for that. Asked which party’s candidates they would support in a race for Congress, 54 percent picked the unnamed Republican and 46 percent picked the unnamed Democrat. That 8-percentage-point difference is smaller than the results in most of the statewide races. 
 
 Voter impressions of the candidates reveal some shifts since the last UT/TT Poll in June. Cruz gets favorable marks from 51 percent of likely voters and unfavorable marks from 44 percent. He’s improved his standing with Republicans to 86 percent favorable from 77 percent in June. 
 
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 More importantly, his race to define his leading opponent to voters before O’Rourke could do it himself has paid dividends. In the June UT/TT Poll, 49 percent of Republicans said they had no opinion of O’Rourke; in the latest survey, that had dropped to 9 percent. Now, 83 percent of Republican voters said they have an unfavorable opinion of Cruz’s challenger — up from 42 percent at the beginning of the summer. 
 
 Overall, 44 percent of likely voters have a favorable impression of O’Rourke, while 49 percent said they have an unfavorable one. 
 
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 In the governor’s race, Abbott is viewed positively by 56 percent of likely voters and negatively by 34 percent — healthy numbers for an incumbent. Valdez has had difficulties breaking through: 31 percent of voters have a positive opinion of her and 37 percent have a negative opinion. But while only 11 percent of voters had a neutral or no opinion of Abbott, three times as many had no impression of Valdez. She hasn’t left an impression on a third of the Texans likely to vote in this election. 
 
 Ask voters about the work being done by public officials and Texas politicians do better than their national colleagues. President Donald Trump’s numbers have held steady in Texas, where 48 percent of all voters give him good marks and 45 percent give him bad ones. For U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, the ratings were 39 percent positive and 34 percent negative, and for Cruz, they were 47 percent to 42 percent. 
 
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 The numbers for Congress have improved from horrible to merely terrible: 26 percent of Texas voters say Congress is doing a good job, while 57 percent say it’s not. That’s up from 19 percent positive in June — and 12 percent positive in the UT/TT Poll a year ago. 
 
 That probably explains the results when voters were asked which branch of the federal government they most trust: Congress got 8 percent of that vote, while the executive and judicial branches each got 29 percent. The remaining 35 percent didn’t choose any of the three. 
 
 At the state level, Abbott got good marks from 52 percent of voters and bad ones from 32 percent. For Patrick, it was 44 percent good and 31 percent bad. 
 
 The University of Texas/Texas Tribune internet survey of 1,200 registered voters was conducted from October 15 to October 21 and has an overall margin of error of +/- 2.83 percentage points. The likely voter sample of 927 voters has a margin of error of +/- 3.22 percentage points. Numbers in charts might not add up to 100 percent because of rounding. 
 
 The University of Texas has been a financial supporter of The Texas Tribune, a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization that is funded in part by donations from members, foundations and corporate sponsors. Financial supporters play no role in the Tribune's journalism. Find a complete list of them here. 
 
 Reference UT/TT Poll, October 2018, Methodology (64.4 KB) DOWNLOAD 
 
 Reference UT/TT Poll, October 2018, Summary (168.6 KB) DOWNLOAD
– A free Willie Nelson concert in the heart of the Lone Star State seems like something that would attract fans of all political stripes, but there's a good chance the Sept. 29 event will feature a largely left-leaning crowd. That's because the country crooner is headlining a "Turn Out for Texas" rally in Austin for Beto O'Rourke, the Democratic challenger to GOP Sen. Ted Cruz, and many of Nelson's fans aren't happy about it, KTRK reports. Per Austin360, it's "the first public concert Nelson has held for a political candidate," the singer's publicist says in a release, though Rolling Stone notes he's put on private concerts for politicians in the past. "My wife Annie and I have met and spoken with Beto and we share his concern for the direction things are headed," Nelson says in the release. "Beto embodies what is special about Texas, an energy and an integrity that is completely genuine." The site notes Nelson even brought O'Rourke out on stage during his Fourth of July concert. None of this pleases Nelson's more conservative fans, who see his ties to O'Rourke as a "breaking point," per the Washington Post. "I am certain you've lost your mind," one commenter wrote on Nelson's Facebook page, while another noted: "Willie's position is proof positive that marijuana use over time kills brain cells." Still others are dumping already purchased tickets to future Nelson shows. Many, however, applauded Nelson's decision. "So glad you are involved in this good cause. I have always been a fan, and am now a bigger fan," noted one well-liked post. The Post notes Nelson has long been politically active, throwing his support behind Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and Bernie Sanders, and advocating for pot legalization, gay marriage, and the environment.