FILE - In this file image made from video of an Aug. 14, 2017, broadcast in a news bulletin by North Korea's KRT, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un receives a military briefing in Pyongyang. Conventional... (Associated Press) 
 
 TOKYO (AP) — Conventional wisdom says that if North Korea were ever to use its nuclear weapons, it would be an act of suicide. But brace yourself for what deterrence experts call the "theory of victory." 
 
 To many who have studied how nuclear strategies actually work, it's conceivable North Korea could escalate to a nuclear war and still survive. Tuesday's missile test suggests once again it may be racing to prepare itself to do just that — but only if forced into a corner. 
 
 Every missile North Korean leader Kim Jong Un launches comes at a high cost. North Korea doesn't have an unlimited supply, and they aren't easy or cheap to build. 
 
 So when Kim orders his strategic forces to launch, it's safe to assume it's a move calculated to achieve maximum political, technical and training value. Tuesday's launch of a ballistic missile over Japan and into the open Pacific Ocean, once again blowing past warnings from the United States and its allies, is a prime example. 
 
 There is a solid strategy hidden in each launch. From Kim's perspective, here's what it looks like. 
 
 ___ 
 
 HOW THE NORTH COULD SURVIVE 
 
 North Korea has never suggested it would use its nuclear weapons to attack the United States or its allies completely out of the blue. 
 
 But, like Washington, it has stated quite explicitly that if it is either attacked or has reason to believe an attack is imminent, it has the right to launch a retaliatory or even a pre-emptive first strike. 
 
 The trigger for North Korea could be unusual troop movements in South Korea, suspicious activity at U.S. bases in Japan or — as the North has recently warned — flights near its airspace by U.S. Air Force B-1B bombers out of their home base on the island of Guam. 
 
 If Kim deemed any of those an imminent attack, one North Korean strategy would be to immediately target U.S. bases in Japan. A more violent move would be to attack a Japanese city, such as Tokyo, though that would probably be unnecessary since at this point the objective would be to weaken the U.S. military's command and control. Going nuclear would send the strongest message, but chemical weapons would be an alternative. 
 
 North Korea's ability to next hit the U.S. mainland with nuclear-tipped missiles is the key to how it would survive in this scenario. And that's why Kim has been rushing to perfect and show them off to the world. 
 
 "The whole reason they developed the ICBM was to deter American nuclear retaliation because if you can hold an American city or cities at risk the American calculation always changes," said Vipin Narang, an associate professor of political science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a nuclear strategy specialist. 
 
 "Are we really willing to risk Los Angeles or Chicago in retaliation for an attack on a U.S. military base in the region?" he asks. "Probably not." 
 
 That, right there, is Kim's big wager. 
 
 If "no" actually is the answer, then North Korea has a chance — though slim and risky — of staving off a full-scale conventional attack by the United States to survive another day. 
 
 ___ 
 
 USE 'EM OR LOSE 'EM 
 
 Kim isn't paranoid. He has good reason to fear an attack by the United States. 
 
 It's highly unlikely Washington would unilaterally start a war. But if it did, North Korea would face a far stronger and better equipped enemy able to — literally — bring the fight right to Kim's front door. A successful U.S. first strike could within hours or days take out North Korea's leadership, or at least seriously disrupt its chain of command, and destroy a good portion of the country's fighting power. 
 
 So North Korea has a very strong incentive to escalate fast, before all is lost. 
 
 Under Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il — Kim's grandfather and father — North Korea relied on conventional artillery just north of the Demilitarized Zone to keep Washington at bay, figuring the U.S. wouldn't make any moves that might risk an attack on South Korea's capital, Seoul, and the tremendous casualties and destruction that would bring. 
 
 Kim, fearing "decapitation strikes," has brought missiles and nukes into the mix for an added layer of protection. 
 
 His strategy is to neutralize Washington's military option by holding both Seoul and an American city hostage while building up his own ability to withstand a first strike or a massive wave of retaliation. To do that, North Korea is developing an array of missiles that can be launched by land or from submarines and easily hidden and transported to remote, hard-to-detect sites. 
 
 Reasonably enough, countries with big arsenals are generally considered less likely to feel the need to use them or lose them. 
 
 North Korea is believed to have an arsenal of perhaps several dozen nuclear weapons, growing by maybe a dozen or so each year. That's a lot, but some analysts believe it may take a few hundred to cure Kim of the itchy trigger finger syndrome. 
 
 ___ 
 
 THE 'MADMAN STRATEGY' 
 
 In deterrence circles, ambiguity is considered a must. But confusion can be deadly. 
 
 In any confrontation, it's best that an opponent knows better than to cross the line — but not to know exactly where that line is. That fosters caution. Confusion, on the other hand, creates the incentive to make a move either out of frightened self-defense or confident opportunism. 
 
 That's what North Korea appears to be doing now, though it's not clear whether the motive is fear or arrogance. 
 
 Over the past several weeks, U.S. President Donald Trump has promised fire, fury and power like the world has never seen should North Korea issue even a vocal threat — which it did almost immediately, with no major consequences. Trump's Cabinet members walked that back, but in the process set or seemed to erase red lines of their own. 
 
 Some have suggested this is a deliberate "madman strategy." 
 
 Inspired by the writings of Machiavelli, President Richard Nixon gave this ploy a go against Vietnam in the late 1960s. His idea was to make the Vietnamese and their Communist allies think that Nixon would do anything, including use his nuclear weapons, to end the war. 
 
 But if Trump is doing the same, he isn't doing it very well, Narang said. 
 
 While Kim's government speaks with one voice and maintains consistency, which is what gives the madman approach its credibility, it's "really hard for Trump to make these crazy statements and not have them walked back by someone in his administration." 
 
 "At some point," Narang said, "the blurriness goes away and we just look incoherent." 
 
 ___ 
 
 Eric Talmadge has been the AP's Pyongyang bureau chief since 2013. Follow him on Twitter at EricTalmadge and on Instagram @erictalmadge. ||||| A day after North Korea launched a missile over Japan, Tokyo Bureau Chief Anna Fifield answers one of the questions she gets most often about North Korea: "Are we going to war?" (Anna Fifield/The Washington Post) 
 
 A day after North Korea launched a missile over Japan, Tokyo Bureau Chief Anna Fifield answers one of the questions she gets most often about North Korea: "Are we going to war?" (Anna Fifield/The Washington Post) 
 
 North Korea’s launch of a ballistic missile over Japan was unprecedented, but President Trump’s response Tuesday was not — a renewal of his warning that “all options are on the table.” His tough talk may only serve to remind that the possibility of military action has not yet deterred North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. 
 
 The missile launch seemed designed to wreak just the right amount of havoc: enough for Kim to show that he would not be cowed but not so much as to invite the “fire and fury” that Trump warned could follow continued North Korean threats. 
 
 The launch early Tuesday was the first test of such a sophisticated weapon over the landmass of a U.S. ally and an obvious warning to the United States that North Korea could easily target U.S. military facilities on Guam or elsewhere in the Pacific region. 
 
 It came during annual joint military exercises between the United States and South Korea that have infuriated the nuclear-armed communist regime. It also came despite recent offers of talks from Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. 
 
 “The world has received North Korea’s latest message loud and clear: this regime has signaled its contempt for its neighbors, for all members of the United Nations, and for minimum standards of acceptable international behavior,” Trump said in an early morning statement. 
 
 North Korea launched a ballistic missile that passed over northern Japan’s Hokkaido island on Aug. 29, before dropping into the Pacific Ocean. (Shin Takizawa/Twitter) 
 
 “Threatening and destabilizing actions only increase the North Korean regime’s isolation in the region and among all nations of the world,” he said. “All options are on the table.” 
 
 The United States requested an emergency meeting of the U.N. Security Council, which this month unanimously approved the strictest economic sanctions to date on a nation that already is one of the most heavily sanctioned in the world. 
 
 “No country should have missiles flying over them like those 130 million people in Japan. It’s unacceptable,” U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley said. 
 
 North Korea has “violated every single U.N. Security Council resolution that we’ve had, and so I think something serious has to happen,” she added. “Enough is enough.” 
 
 [ North Korean missile flies over Japan, prompting an angry response from Tokyo ] 
 
 There was no indication that Kim was intimidated by the White House reaction. The state Korean Central News Agency reported Wednesday morning local time that the North Korean leader had been present for the missile launch and had called it “a meaningful prelude to containing Guam.” According to the agency, Kim said he had gone ahead with the missile launch because the United States proceeded with “the bellicose war exercises” with South Korea. 
 
 International outrage over the latest North Korean missile went well beyond Washington. Trump spoke by phone with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe hours after the launch, and the two leaders “committed to increasing pressure on North Korea, and doing their utmost to convince the international community to do the same,” according to a White House statement. 
 
 People watch a television news screen showing file footage of a North Korean missile launch, at a railway station in Seoul on Aug. 29, 2017. (Jung Yeon-Je/AFP/Getty Images) 
 
 That was a reference to stiff international sanctions that so far have failed to stop North Korea from developing working nuclear bombs and intercontinental ballistic missiles. The United States claims North Korea could not evade those sanctions if other countries including China enforced them more stringently. 
 
 Asked about the effectiveness of sanctions and international denunciation, given that North Korea does not seem to care about the moves, deputy British U.N. envoy Jonathan Allen insisted such actions have merit. 
 
 “They send that really important message of the entire world being united, and they do have an impact on North Korea,” Allen told reporters at the United Nations. 
 
 The missile appeared to be a Hwasong-12, the intermediate-range ballistic missile that North Korea has been threatening to shoot into the waters near the U.S. territory of Guam. 
 
 But North Korea did not shoot it southeast toward Guam. Instead, it lobbed the missile in a northeasterly direction, over Japan and into the Pacific Ocean. 
 
 It was, as Stephan Haggard, a political scientist and Korea expert at the University of California at San Diego, described it, “perfectly calibrated to create political mischief.” 
 
 “The launch shows how Kim Jong Un is weirdly conservative, calibrating tests so that they are difficult to counter, flying just beneath the radar of a required kinetic response,” Haggard said. 
 
 Taro Kono, Japan’s foreign minister, acknowledged as much. “If North Korea had launched the missile to the south, the U.S. might have viewed it as a considerable provocation and responded accordingly,” Kono told reporters after the launch. 
 
 North Korea’s action also seemed designed to drive a wedge between its neighbors. 
 
 In Japan, Abe called it “an unprecedented, grave and serious threat.” Abe wants to beef up Japan’s military capabilities, and missile launches like this provide ammunition for his controversial cause. South Korea’s liberal president, Moon Jae-in, who has promoted engagement with Pyongyang, immediately denounced the launch and sent his fighter jets to drop bombs on a shooting range near the border with North Korea. 
 
 Both reactions appear to have rattled China, where officials called on all sides to take a step back. Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying characterized the North Korea situation as “at a tipping point, approaching a crisis.” She repeated China’s call for talks between North Korea and the United States. 
 
 [ North Korea launches three missiles into sea, heightening tensions ] 
 
 Tillerson had stressed Sunday that the offer of talks remained open, and he encouraged Kim to choose “a different path.” For weeks, U.S. officials have sought to assure Kim that Washington does not want to topple him or invade his country, a message also meant to appeal to North Korea’s protector, China. 
 
 Trump said last week that North Korea was finally “starting to respect us,” although he added that his threat to answer the country’s provocations with “fire and fury” might not have been strong enough. 
 
 Tillerson also had publicly praised North Korea last week for showing “restraint” since the U.N. Security Council vote and in the face of the annual military drills. Although North Korea had not test-launched any missiles for nearly a month at that point, it has done so twice since Tillerson spoke. 
 
 North Korea fired rockets over the Japanese mainland in 1998 and 2009 — but it described them as satellite launch vehicles and gave Japan advance warning in the second case. Tuesday’s missile launch was purely military and “demonstrated a direct threat,” said Narushige Michishita, an expert on Korean Peninsula security issues at the Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo. 
 
 “From a military point of view, they have demonstrated an ability to use a very mobile, agile missile against targets anywhere in Japan,” he said. 
 
 [ In a dangerous time, the Pentagon prepares for a war game on the Korean Peninsula ] 
 
 Defense Secretary Jim Mattis has said that the United States would shoot down any missile North Korea fired at Guam or a U.S. ally. 
 
 Fifield reported from Tokyo. 
 
 Read more 
 
 North Korea mocks Trump’s ‘ego-driven’ Twitter posts as military exercises continue 
 
 North Korea could cross ICBM threshold next year, U.S. officials warn in new assessment 
 
 Kim Jong Un’s rockets are getting an important boost — from China 
 
 Today’s coverage from Post correspondents around the world 
 
 Like Washington Post World on Facebook and stay updated on foreign news ||||| In this undated photo distributed on Saturday, Sept. 16, 2017, by the North Korean government, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, center, celebrates what was said to be the test launch of an intermediate... (Associated Press) 
 
 SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — North Korea leader Kim Jong Un said his country is nearing its goal of "equilibrium" in military force with the United States, as the United Nations Security Council strongly condemned the North's "highly provocative" ballistic missile launch over Japan on Friday. 
 
 The North's official Korean Central News Agency carried Kim's comments on Saturday — a day after U.S. and South Korean militaries detected the missile launch from the North Korean capital of Pyongyang. 
 
 It traveled 3,700 kilometers (2,300 miles) as it passed over the Japanese island of Hokkaido before landing in the northern Pacific Ocean. It was the country's longest-ever test flight of a ballistic missile. 
 
 The North has confirmed the missile as an intermediate range Hwasong-12, the same model launched over Japan on Aug. 29. 
 
 Under Kim's watch, North Korea has maintained a torrid pace in weapons tests, including its most powerful nuclear test to date on Sept. 3 and two July flight tests of intercontinental ballistic missiles that could strike deep into the U.S. mainland when perfected. 
 
 The increasingly frequent and aggressive tests have added to outside fears that the North is closer than ever to building a military arsenal that could viably target the U.S. and its allies in Asia. The tests, which could potentially make launches over Japan an accepted norm, are also seen as North Korea's attempt to win greater military freedom in the region and raise doubts in Seoul and Tokyo that Washington would risk the annihilation of a U.S. city to protect them. 
 
 The KCNA said Kim expressed great satisfaction over the launch, which he said verified the "combat efficiency and reliability" of the missile and the success of efforts to increase its power. 
 
 While the English version of the report was less straightforward, the Korean version quoted Kim as declaring the missile as operationally ready. He vowed to complete his nuclear weapons program in the face of strengthening international sanctions, the agency said. 
 
 Photos published by North Korea's state media showed the missile being launched from a truck-mounted launcher and a smiling Kim clapping and raising his fist while celebrating from an observation point. 
 
 The U.N. Security Council accused North Korea of undermining regional peace and security by launching its latest missile over Japan and said its nuclear and missile tests "have caused grave security concerns around the world" and threaten all 193 U.N. member states. 
 
 Kim also said the country, despite "limitless" international sanctions, has nearly completed the building of its nuclear weapons force and called for "all-state efforts" to reach the goal and obtain a "capacity for nuclear counterattack the U.S. cannot cope with." 
 
 "As recognized by the whole world, we have made all these achievements despite the U.N. sanctions that have lasted for decades," the agency quoted Kim as saying. 
 
 Kim said the country's final goal "is to establish the equilibrium of real force with the U.S. and make the U.S. rulers dare not talk about military option for the DPRK," referring to North Korea's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea. 
 
 He indicated that more missile tests would be forthcoming, saying that all future drills should be "meaningful and practical ones for increasing the combat power of the nuclear force" to establish an order in the deployment of nuclear warheads for "actual war." 
 
 Prior to the launches over Japan, North Korean had threatened to fire a salvo of Hwasong-12s toward Guam, the U.S. Pacific island territory and military hub the North has called an "advanced base of invasion." 
 
 The Security Council stressed in a statement after a closed-door emergency meeting that all countries must "fully, comprehensively and immediately" implement all U.N. sanctions. 
 
 Japan's U.N. Ambassador Koro Bessho called the missile launch an "outrageous act" that is not only a threat to Japan's security but a threat to the whole world. 
 
 Bessho and the British, French and Swedish ambassadors demanded that all sanctions be implemented. 
 
 Calling the latest launch a "terrible, egregious, illegal, provocative reckless act," Britain's U.N. Ambassador Matthew Rycroft said North Korea's largest trading partners and closest links — a clear reference to China — must "demonstrate that they are doing everything in their power to implement the sanctions of the Security Council and to encourage the North Korean regime to change course." 
 
 France's Foreign Ministry said in a statement that the country is ready to work on tougher U.N. and EU measures to convince Pyongyang that there is no interest in an escalation, and to bring it to the negotiating table. 
 
 Friday's launch followed North Korea's sixth nuclear test on Sept. 3 in what it described as a detonation of a thermonuclear weapon built for its developmental ICBMs. 
 
 The Hwasong-12 and the Hwasong-14 were initially fired at highly lofted angles to reduce their range and avoid neighboring countries. The two Hwasong-12 launches over Japan indicate North Korea is moving toward using angles close to operational to evaluate whether its warheads can survive the harsh conditions of atmospheric re-entry and detonate properly. 
 
 While some experts believe North Korea would need to conduct more tests to confirm Hwasong-12's accuracy and reliability, Kim Jong Un's latest comments indicate the country would soon move toward mass producing the missiles for operational deployment, said Kim Dong-yub, an analyst at Seoul's Institute for Far Eastern Studies. He also said that the North is likely planning similar test launches of its Hwasong-14 ICBM. 
 
 South Korean President Moon Jae-in, a liberal who initially pushed for talks with North Korea, said its tests currently make dialogue "impossible." 
 
 "If North Korea provokes us or our allies, we have the strength to smash the attempt at an early stage and inflict a level of damage it would be impossible to recover from," said Moon, who ordered his military to conduct a live-fire ballistic missile drill in response to the North Korean launch. 
 
 ___ 
 
 Lederer reported from the United Nations. ||||| Image copyright Reuters Image caption The Pacific island of Guam is home to the US Air Force's Andersen air base 
 
 North Korea has said it is considering carrying out missile strikes on the US Pacific territory of Guam. 
 
 The North's official news agency said on Tuesday the plan involved firing medium-to-long-range rockets at Guam, where US strategic bombers are based. 
 
 US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, flying into Guam, said there was no imminent threat from North Korea. 
 
 He also defended President Donald Trump, who on Tuesday threatened Pyongyang with "fire and fury". 
 
 Mr Tillerson said that North Korean leader Kim Jong-un did not understand diplomatic language, and a strong message was needed that he would understand. 
 
 "I think the president just wanted to be clear to the North Korean regime that the US... will defend itself and its allies," he said. 
 
 On Wednesday, Mr Trump tweeted that the US nuclear arsenal was "more powerful than ever before", but added he was hopeful "we will never have to use this power". 
 
 The recent exchanges mark a sharp rise in rhetoric between Washington and Pyongyang, but China has urged calm. 
 
 A foreign ministry statement quoted by Reuters called on all sides to avoid words or actions which might escalate the situation and to make greater efforts to resolve the issue via talks. 
 
 The UN recently approved further economic sanctions on North Korea, which Pyongyang said were a "violent violation of our sovereignty", warning the US would "pay a price". 
 
 Media playback is unsupported on your device Media caption President Trump threatened a response 'like the world has never seen' 
 
 On Wednesday, the official KCNA news agency said North Korea was "carefully examining the operational plan for making an enveloping fire at the areas around Guam" using its domestically made medium-to-long-range Hwasong-12 missiles. 
 
 The news agency reported a military statement issued on Tuesday, which probably came in response to US military drills in Guam. 
 
 However, there has been no indication that any attack on Guam by North Korea is imminent. 
 
 In a message to the public, the governor of Guam Eddie Baza Calvo said there was currently "no threat" to the island and the Marianas archipelago, but that Guam was "prepared for any eventuality". 
 
 North Korea's statement is the latest stage in a heating up of rhetoric and tension. 
 
 Pyongyang, which has tested nuclear devices five times, launched two intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) in July, claiming it now had the ability to hit mainland US. 
 
 On Tuesday, media reports in the US claimed the North had achieved its goal of making a nuclear warhead small enough to fit inside its missiles. 
 
 Media playback is unsupported on your device Media caption North Korea's second intercontinental missile launched last month was "seen from Japan" 
 
 While not confirmed, this was seen as one of the last obstacles to North Korea being a fully nuclear-armed state. 
 
 A report in the Washington Post, citing US intelligence officials, suggested North Korea was developing nuclear weapons capable of hitting the US at a much faster rate than expected. 
 
 A Japanese government defence white paper also said the weapons programme had "advanced considerably" and that North Korea possibly now had nuclear weapons. 
 
 North Korea's missile programme explained 
 
 In response, President Trump warned North Korea to stop threatening the US, saying they would be "met with fire and fury like the world has never seen". 
 
 However, veteran US Senator John McCain was sceptical about Mr Trump's statement, saying he was "not sure that President Trump is ready to act". 
 
 'Scary' situation - BBC's Yogita Limaye in Seoul, South Korea 
 
 On the streets of Seoul, barely 50km (30 miles) from the border with North Korea, the latest developments have drawn mixed reactions. Kim Seong-su, 62, said he thought Pyongyang was bluffing to preserve its regime and justify its nuclear programme. 
 
 But others are more concerned. Yeon Eui-sook says she finds the situation scary. "I hope everyone can live in peace. Kim Jong-un keeps doing this and making us worry," she said. 
 
 Analysts say the language from Pyongyang always gets more aggressive in August, when the US and South Korea conduct joint military exercises. But this time - with a US president who also uses strong words - the confrontation is getting even fiercer than usual. 
 
 North Korea had reacted angrily after the fresh sanctions were announced on Saturday by the UN, in an attempt to pressure it into giving up its nuclear ambitions. 
 
 The sanctions aim to reduce North Korea's export revenues by a third. 
 
 KCNA said North Korea would retaliate and make "the US pay a price" for drafting the new measures. 
 
 It called the sanctions a "violent violation of our sovereignty", the news agency said. 
 
 Meanwhile on Wednesday the UK Foreign Office said it would "continue to work with the US and our international partners to maintain pressure on North Korea". 
 
 "We have been consistently clear and forthright in our condemnation of North Korea's destabilising and illegal behaviour, including through support for UN Security Council resolutions to bring in sanctions that will limit North Korea's ability to pursue its nuclear weapons programme," a spokesman said. 
 
 A spokesman for Germany's foreign ministry, quoted by AFP, said it was watching the situation "with the greatest concern" and called on all sides to use restraint. 
 
 The tiny but important island of Guam 
 
 The 541sq km (209 sq miles) volcanic and coral island in the Pacific between the Philippines and Hawaii. 
 
 It is a "non-incorporated" US territory, with a population of about 163,000. 
 
 That means people born in Guam are US citizens, have an elected governor and House Representative, but cannot vote for a president in US national elections. 
 
 US military bases cover about a quarter of the island. About 6,000 personnel are based there and there are plans to move in thousands more. 
 
 It was a key US base in World War Two, and remains a vital staging post for US operations, giving access to potential flashpoints like the South China Sea, the Koreas and the Taiwan Straits. 
 
 Guam profile from BBC Monitoring 
 
 Get news from the BBC in your inbox, each weekday morning ||||| This article is over 1 year old 
 
 Kim Jong-un, who oversaw rocket launch on Sunday, warns Washington that US mainland is in ‘sighting range for strike’ 
 
 North Korea claims the US mainland is now within range of its missiles after it successfully test-fired a new rocket it says is capable of carrying a “large-scale, heavy nuclear warhead”. 
 
 North Korea test-fires what could be new kind of longer-range missile Read more 
 
 Sunday morning’s launch of a mid- to long-range ballistic missile was overseen by the country’s leader, Kim Jong-un, who accused the US of “browbeating” countries that “have no nukes”. He warned Washington not to misjudge the reality that the US mainland is in Pyongyang’s “sighting range for [a] strike”, the KCNA state news agency reported. 
 
 KCNA said the missile was a new ground-to-ground Hwasong-12 capable of carrying a large-size heavy nuclear warhead. Kim reportedly “hugged officials in the field of rocket research, saying that they worked hard to achieve a great thing”, it added. 
 
 The missile was launched on an unusually high trajectory to avoid threatening the security of nearby countries. KCNA said it flew to an altitude of 1,312 miles (2,111 km) and travelled 490 miles before landing in the Sea of Japan, near Russia. 
 
 Most experts are sceptical of North Korean claims that it has missiles that can reach the US mainland, but analysts said the flight data suggested the rocket launched on Sunday could fly at least 2,800 miles if launched at a standard trajectory – putting the Pacific territory of Guam within range. 
 
 “This is the longest-range missile North Korea has ever tested,” Jeffrey Lewis, a nuclear expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in the US, told Agence France-Presse. 
 
 John Schilling, an aerospace engineering specialist, said on the website of 38 North, a Washington-based monitoring project, that the launch appeared to demonstrate an intermediate-range ballistic missile that could reliably strike the US base at Guam in the Pacific. 
 
 “More importantly,” Schilling said, it “may represent a substantial advance to developing an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).” 
 
 Schilling said the ability to hit Guam was not a game-changer, but the new missile could be the forerunner to an even more powerful missile. 
 
 “What would change the strategic balance is an ICBM capable of reaching the US mainland,” he said. “This is not that missile but it might be a test bed, demonstrating technologies and systems to be used in future ICBMs.” 
 
 Facebook Twitter Pinterest An unidentified missile that analysts believe could be the North Korean Hwasong-12 being paraded in Pyongyang last month. Photograph: Wong Maye-E/AP 
 
 The Trump administration has warned that a first ICBM test, together with any further nuclear tests, would cross a line that could prompt military retaliation, although the president has also called for the proper application of multilateral sanctions against Pyongyang and even held out the possibility of a summit with Kim “if the conditions are set”. 
 
 
 
 Sunday’s launch is also being interpreted as sending a message to South Korea, days after President Moon Jae-in took office, pledging to engage Pyongyang after declaring a decade of isolation and sanctions under his conservative predecessors a failure. 
 
 'We are a target': South Korean village wakes up on frontline with North Read more 
 
 On Monday, South Korea’s unification ministry declined to speculate on its neighbour’s intentions, but warned it not to underestimate the strength of international opposition to its missile tests. 
 
 “[The international community] has the shared view that North Korea’s nuclear and missile provocations pose a grave threat to peace and security in the region and beyond the peninsula,” Lee Duk-haeng, a ministry spokesman, said. 
 
 The Australian prime minister, Malcolm Turnbull, called on China – North Korea’s main ally and trading partner – to increase pressure on the regime to end its missile tests. 
 
 He said the regime’s conduct was reckless, provocative and unlawful. 
 
 “The greatest responsibility for bringing North Korea to its senses … lies with China,” he said. “They have the overwhelming dominant economic relationship with North Korea and because they have the greatest leverage, they have the greatest responsibility.” 
 
 The US military’s Pacific command said the type of missile fired was “not consistent with an intercontinental ballistic missile”. 
 
 
 
 KCNA said the launch was designed to verify “the tactical and technological specifications of the newly developed ballistic rocket capable of carrying a large-size heavy nuclear warhead”. 
 
 The UN security council is scheduled to meet on Tuesday to discuss the missile launch, diplomats said. 
 
 The US ambassador to the UN called the launch a message by Pyongyang to South Korea after the election of Moon. 
 
 Facebook Twitter Pinterest Nikki Haley at a security council meeting at the UN headquarters in New York. Photograph: Stephanie Keith/Reuters 
 
 Nikki Haley told ABC’s This Week programme: “You first have to get into Kim Jong-un’s head – which is, he’s in a state of paranoia, he’s incredibly concerned about anything and everything around him.” 
 
 She said the missile test had quashed any immediate prospects of Trump holding talks with Kim : “Having a missile test is not the way to sit down with the president, because he’s absolutely not going to do it.” 
 
 
 
 Haley added that Kim “can sit there and say all the conditions he wants. Until he meets our conditions, we’re not sitting down with him.” 
 
 The KCNA report on the missile’s flight was largely consistent with South Korean and Japanese assessments that it flew 435 miles and reached an altitude of more than 1,243 miles, which is further and higher than an intermediate-range missile tested in February from the same region, north-west of Pyongyang. 
 
 Reuters and Associated Press contributed to this report ||||| "Threatening the world, these weapons and tests further isolate North Korea, weaken its economy, and deprive its people." Trump said in a written statement. "The United States will take all necessary steps to ensure the security of the American homeland and protect our allies in the region." 
 
 The United States detected an intercontinental ballistic missile launch out of North Korea at approximately 10:45 am ET on Friday, the Pentagon confirmed to CNN -- Pyongyang's second such test this month. 
 
 The missile was launched from Mupyong-ni and traveled about 1000 km before splashing down in the waters off the Japanese coast, according to the Pentagon, which is working with interagency partners on a more detailed assessment. 
 
 The North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) determined the missile launch from North Korea did not pose a threat to North America. 
 
 "Our commitment to the defense of our allies, including the Republic of Korea and Japan, in the face of these threats, remains ironclad. We remain prepared to defend ourselves and our allies from any attack or provocation," a statement from the Pentagon said. 
 
 Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe told Japanese broadcaster NHK: "I have received the first report that North Korea again launched a missile and it possibly landed inside the exclusive economic zone." 
 
 Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said the missile launched by North Korea possibly flew for approximately 45 minutes. 
 
 Suga told reporters there is no damage to any vessel or aircraft. 
 
 South Korea's joint chiefs of staff said they estimate that the intercontinental ballistic missile is more advanced than one launched last month based on the range it traveled. 
 
 "The altitude is about 3,700 km and the flying distance is about 1,000 km. It is estimated that it was a more advanced type of an ICBM compared to the previous one based on the range," a statement to CNN said. 
 
 The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Joseph F. Dunford, Jr., and the commander of US Pacific Command, Admiral Harry Harris, called the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Lee Sun Jin in the wake of North Korea's test to express the US' "ironclad commitment" to its alliance with South Korea and discuss military response options. 
 
 Hours after that call, the US and South Korean military conducted a live fire exercise as a show of force in response to the missile test, according to Pentagon spokesman, Capt. Jeff Davis. The exercise included firing missiles into the ocean. 
 
 Both militaries conducted a similar show of force, after North Korea's first ICBM test in early July. 
 
 New US intelligence on North Korea missile program 
 
 The ongoing assessment from the US intelligence community in recent months has been that North Korea has accelerated its intercontinental range ballistic missile program. 
 
 The US believes that North Korea will be able to launch a reliable nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) by early 2018, a US official familiar with the latest intelligence assessment confirmed to CNN Wednesday. 
 
 That would be an acceleration of two years from previous estimates that put Pyongyang three to five years from fully developing long-range missile capabilities. 
 
 The official clarified to CNN that while North Korea can currently get a missile "off the ground," there are still a lot of undetermined variables about guidance, re-entry and the ability to hit a specific target. 
 
 CNN reported earlier this month that US intelligence indicated that North Korea was making preparations for another ICBM or intermediate range missile test. 
 
 Two administration officials familiar with the latest intelligence at the time confirmed they'd seen indicators of test preparations. 
 
 "In all honesty, we should not be surprised anymore: North Korea is slowly morphing into a nuclear and missile power right before our very eyes," said Harry J. Kazianis, director of defense studies at the Center for the National Interest and an expert on North Korea. 
 
 2017 has been a year of rapid progress for North Korea's missile program. 
 
 Pyongyang has carried out 12 missile tests since February and conducted its first-ever test of an ICBM on July 4 -- which it claims could reach "anywhere in the world." 
 
 "North Korea will continue to test over and over again its missile technology and nuclear weapons in the months and years to come in order to develop the most lethal systems it can," Kazianis said. "You can bet every time they do tensions will continue to rise. This is what makes the situation on the Korean Peninsula as dangerous as it is." 
 
 Less than six years into his reign, Kim Jong Un has tested more missiles than his father and grandfather combined. 
 
 What are President Donald Trump's options? 
 
 North Korea's latest test has spurred calls for a response from the Trump administration. 
 
 "North Korea's latest missile test shows the Trump administration's actions are not changing North Korea's behavior and it's time for the President to articulate a comprehensive strategy to the American people -- so far he's failed to do that," Democratic Rep. Ted Lieu told CNN on Friday. 
 
 Trump administration officials have warned that "all options are on the table" but a clear path forward has yet to materialize. 
 
 Doug Bandow, a senior fellow at the Cato Institute who specializes in foreign policy, told CNN that North Korea's missile launch shows Pyongyang is "absolutely committed to their missile programs" and not interested in tempering their activities. 
 
 Bandow, who visited North Korea just last month, said the regime is convinced that developing its missile program as a nuclear deterrent is absolutely necessary -- a mindset that continues to put pressure on President Donald Trump, who finds himself in a situation with no good choices, according to Bandow. 
 
 Those choices are further complicated by the unpredictable nature of Kim Jong Un, according to Lieu, who also told CNN he "does not know" if Kim would be willing to use a long-range nuclear weapon should he acquire that capability. 
 
 Trump has often cited China, North Korea's longtime ally, as a key player in reining in North Korea's quest to have long-range nuclear missiles. 
 
 But diplomatic efforts calling for China to put pressure on Pyongyang or enforce meaningful sanctions on North Korean revenue streams used to fund its missile program have proven ineffective to date. 
 
 Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has put countries on notice that if they or their companies help North Korea -- also known as the DPRK -- they'll face penalties. That mostly means China, which accounts for 90 percent of North Korea's trade. 
 
 That doesn't seem to be working yet. 
 
 Lawmakers in the US House and Senate have overwhelmingly passed a bill that would expand economic sanctions on North Korea, but the White House has not definitively said Trump will sign the sweeping measure that also tightens restrictions on Iran and Russia. 
 
 Republican Rep. Mike Turner of Ohio, a senior member of the House Armed Services Committee, implored Trump to sign the bill following North Korea's missile test on Friday. 
 
 "These missile tests must be met with consequences. Earlier this week, I voted to increase sanctions against North Korea. The Senate has since taken the same action. I urge the President to quickly sign these sanctions into law to thwart further escalation of North Korea's missile systems," a statement from Turner said. 
 
 Even if Trump does sign the bill there is no guarantee that additional sanctions will slow North Korea's march toward a long-range nuclear missile. 
 
 Pyongyang's nuclear aspirations have progressed forward rapidly despite previous sanctions, and Kim's regime has resisted any US attempts at negotiation that mandates de-nuclearization upfront. 
 
 Earlier this year, Beijing called on Pyongyang to suspend its nuclear and missile tests while calling on the US to stop military exercises on and near the Korean Peninsula, which North Korea sees as a threat to its sovereignty. 
 
 But neither the US nor North Korea has shown any willingness to compromise as the situation has escalated in recent months. 
 
 Last month, CNN reported that the US military updated its options for North Korea with the goal of giving Trump plans for a rapid response, according to two US military officials at the time. 
 
 Officials said the options, which include a military response, would be presented to the President if Pyongyang conducted an underground nuclear or ballistic missile test that indicates the regime has made significant progress toward developing a weapon that could attack the US. 
 
 But a US preemptive attack continues to be highly problematic option because the Pentagon has long believed North Korea would in turn attack South Korea. 
 
 CIA Director Mike Pompeo said last week that the Trump administration needed to find a way to separate Kim from his growing nuclear stockpile. 
 
 "As for the regime, I am hopeful we will find a way to separate that regime from this system," Pompeo said. "The North Korean people I'm sure are lovely people and would love to see him go." 
 
 Those comments were met with harsh rhetoric from North Korea, which threatened a nuclear strike on "the heart of the US" if it attempts to remove Kim Jong Un as Supreme Leader, Pyongyang's state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported Tuesday. 
 
 KCNA reported that a spokesman from the North Korean foreign ministry said, "The DPRK legally stipulates that if the supreme dignity of the DPRK is threatened, it must preemptively annihilate those countries and entities that are directly or indirectly involved in it, by mobilizing all kinds of strike means including the nuclear ones." 
 
 "Should the US dare to show even the slightest sign of attempt to remove our supreme leadership, we will strike a merciless blow at the heart of the US with our powerful nuclear hammer, honed and hardened over time," the foreign ministry spokesman added. 
 
 Earlier this year, Trump said he would be willing to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un "under the right circumstances" to defuse tensions over North Korea's nuclear program. 
 
 No sitting US president has ever met with the leader of North Korea while in power, and the idea is extremely controversial. 
 
 But some lawmakers now say they would support direct diplomacy with the North Korean regime. 
 
 "Sanctions without direct diplomatic engagement has been tried for over a decade and failed," Democratic Sen. Ed Markey, a Massachusetts Democrat, said in a statement. 
 
 "Pressure cannot bring North Korea to the table until we are willing talk to them. Now is the time for President Trump to clearly state his diplomatic engagement strategy, how he intends to use unprecedented sanctions pressure to bring North Korea to the table, and allow American diplomats to talk directly with North Korean diplomats so long as they freeze testing of their nuclear and missile programs," he said. 
 
 Lieu, a member of the House foreign affairs committee said he would also support engaging the Kim regime directly. 
 
 "If the choice is between military conflict or talking, I would support talking," Lieu told CNN. ||||| SEOUL/UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) - North Korea said on Saturday it aims to reach an “equilibrium” of military force with the United States, which earlier signaled its patience for diplomacy is wearing thin after Pyongyang fired a missile over Japan for the second time in under a month. 
 
 “Our final goal is to establish the equilibrium of real force with the U.S. and make the U.S. rulers dare not talk about military option,” North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was quoted as saying by the state news agency, KCNA. 
 
 Kim was shown beaming as he watched the missile fly from a moving launcher in photos released by the agency, surrounded by several officials. 
 
 “The combat efficiency and reliability of Hwasong-12 were thoroughly verified,” said Kim as quoted by KCNA. Kim added the North’s goal of completing its nuclear force had “nearly reached the terminal”. 
 
 North Korea has launched dozens of missiles under Kim’s leadership as it accelerates a weapons program designed to give it the ability to target the United States with a powerful, nuclear-tipped missile. 
 
 After the latest missile launch on Friday, White House National Security Adviser H.R. McMaster said the United States was fast running out of patience with North Korea’s missile and nuclear programs. 
 
 “We’ve been kicking the can down the road, and we’re out of road,” McMaster told reporters, referring to Pyongyang’s repeated missile tests in defiance of international pressure. 
 
 “For those ... who have been commenting on a lack of a military option, there is a military option,” he said, adding that it would not be the Trump administration’s preferred choice. 
 
 Also on Friday, the U.N. Security Council condemned the “highly provocative” missile launch by North Korea. 
 
 It had already stepped up sanctions against North Korea in response to a nuclear bomb test on Sept. 3, imposing a ban on North Korea’s textile exports and capping its imports of crude oil. 
 
 The U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, echoed McMaster’s strong rhetoric, even as she said Washington’s preferred resolution to the crisis is through diplomacy and sanctions. 
 
 “What we are seeing is, they are continuing to be provocative, they are continuing to be reckless and at that point there’s not a whole lot the Security Council is going to be able to do from here, when you’ve cut 90 percent of the trade and 30 percent of the oil,” Haley said. 
 
 U.S. President Donald Trump said that he is “more confident than ever that our options in addressing this threat are both effective and overwhelming.” He said at Joint Base Andrews near Washington that North Korea “has once again shown its utter contempt for its neighbors and for the entire world community.” 
 
 MISSILE 
 
 North Korea’s latest test missile flew over Hokkaido in northern Japan on Friday and landed in the Pacific about 2,000 km (1,240 miles) to the east, the Japanese government said. 
 
 It traveled about 3,700 km (2,300 miles) in total, according to South Korea’s military, far enough to reach the U.S. Pacific territory of Guam, which the North has threatened before. 
 
 “The range of this test was significant since North Korea demonstrated that it could reach Guam with this missile,” the Union of Concerned Scientists advocacy group said in a statement. However, the accuracy of the missile, still at an early stage of development, was low, it said. 
 
 On Thursday, U.S. Secretary of State Tillerson called on China, Pyongyang’s only ally, and Russia to apply more pressure on North Korea by “taking direct actions of their own.” 
 
 Beijing has pushed back, urging Washington to do more to rein in North Korea. 
 
 “Honestly, I think the United States should be doing .. much more than now, so that there’s real effective international cooperation on this issue,” China’s ambassador to the United States, Cui Tiankai, said on Friday. 
 
 North Korean leader Kim Jong Un (not pictured) guides the launch of a Hwasong-12 missile in this undated combination photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on September 16, 2017. KCNA via REUTERS 
 
 “They should refrain from issuing more threats. They should do more to find effective ways to resume dialogue and negotiation,” he said, while adding that China would never accept North Korea as a nuclear weapons state. 
 
 North Korea staged its sixth and most powerful nuclear bomb test earlier this month and in July tested long-range intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching at least parts of the U.S. mainland. 
 
 Last month, North Korea fired an intermediate range missile that also flew over Hokkaido into the ocean. 
 
 Warning announcements about the latest missile blared in parts of northern Japan, while many residents received alerts on their mobile phones or saw warnings on TV telling them to seek refuge. 
 
 The U.S. military said it had detected a single intermediate range ballistic missile but it did not pose a threat to North America or Guam. 
 
 Global equities investors largely shrugged off the latest missile test by North Korea as shares on Wall Street set new highs on Friday. 
 
 DIFFERENCES OVER DIRECT TALKS 
 
 Trump has promised not to allow North Korea to threaten the United States with a nuclear-tipped missile. 
 
 Russia’s U.N. ambassador, Vassily Nebenzia, said the United States needed to begin talks with North Korea, something that Washington has so far ruled out. 
 
 “We called on our U.S. partners and others to implement political and diplomatic solutions that are provided for in the resolution,” Nebenzia told reporters after the Security Council meeting. “Without implementing this, we also will consider it as a non-compliance with the resolution.” 
 
 Asked about the prospect for direct talks, a White House spokesman said, “As the president and his national security team have repeatedly said, now is not the time to talk to North Korea.” 
 
 Slideshow (19 Images) 
 
 South Korean President Moon Jae-in also said dialogue with the North was impossible at this point. He ordered officials to analyze and prepare for possible new North Korean threats, including electromagnetic pulse and biochemical attacks. 
 
 The United States and South Korea are technically still at war with North Korea because the 1950-53 Korean conflict ended with a truce and not a peace treaty. The North accuses the United States, which has 28,500 troops in South Korea, of planning to invade and regularly threatens to destroy it and its Asian allies. 
 
 (For graphic on North Korea's missile and nuclear tests, click tmsnrt.rs/2f3Y8rQ)
– "Are we really willing to risk Los Angeles or Chicago in retaliation for an attack on a US military base in the region? Probably not," nuclear strategy specialist Vipin Narang tells the AP. And that's exactly the calculation that gives North Korea a small shot at "winning" in a nuclear conflict, challenging the assumption that launching a nuclear weapon would be automatic suicide for the country. If North Korea feels threatened to the point of using a nuclear weapon, a first target would likely be a US military base in Japan; North Korea would then use its long-range nukes to threaten the US mainland and avoid a retaliatory strike. Experts say this is Kim Jong Un's "theory of victory"—one that President Trump may be attempting to combat with an unsuccessful version of the "madman strategy." Here's what else you need to know about North Korea's most-recent missile launch: Tuesday's missile launch over Japan seems likely to result in even more sanctions against North Korea. But after UN sanctions Aug. 5 targeted millions of dollars in seafood, coal, iron ore, and more, is there anything left to sanction? CNN reports two options are oil and Chinese banks. After Tuesday's missile launch, Trump said "all options are on the table." This was, all things considered, a "measured" response from the president, according to the Atlantic. It was an official statement instead of a tweet, didn't threaten "fire and fury," and avoided calling Kim Jong Un a "wack job." The Guardian reports on the scary morning had by residents of Japan, who were awoken around 6am Tuesday by a government missile warning on their phones. They were given less than 10 minutes to get to a shelter or sturdy building as sirens and special broadcasts blared. The missile test impacted US markets, with the Dow dropping more than 100 points Tuesday morning, Reuters reports. The stock market would recover by the afternoon as the threat passed. Korea expert Stephan Haggard tells the Washington Post that Tuesday was another example of how "weirdly conservative" Kim Jong Un is—carrying out provocative actions with just enough restraint to avoid an actual response. For example, pointing the missile toward Japan, not Guam. Finally, Russia's deputy foreign minister blamed the US and South Korea for Tuesday's nuclear test and came out against further sanctions against North Korea, saying they haven't prevented missile tests in the past and won't in the future, Newsweek reports.