Vice-presidential picks are always judged by their effect on the coming election. They rarely have any. 
 
 They haven’t had a decisive influence since Lyndon Johnson carried Texas for John Kennedy in 1960. (That and Illinois put Kennedy over the top.) This time, however, the effect could be significant. The Democrats’ Mediscare barrage is already in full swing. Paul Ryan, it seems, is determined to dispossess Grandmother, then toss her over a cliff. If the charge is not successfully countered, good-bye Florida. 
 
 Republicans have a twofold answer. First, hammer home that their Medicare plan affects no one over 55, let alone 65. Second, go on offense. Point out that President Obama cuts Medicare by $700 billion to finance Obamacare. 
 
 It’s a sweet judo throw: Want to bring up Medicare, supposedly our weakness? Fine. But now you’ve got to debate Obamacare, your weakness — and explain why you are robbing Granny’s health care to pay for your pet project. 
 
 If Mitt Romney and Ryan can successfully counterattack Mediscare, the Ryan effect becomes a major plus. Because: 
 
 (a) Ryan nationalizes the election and makes it ideological, reprising the 2010 dynamic that delivered a “shellacking” to the Democrats. 
 
 (b) If the conversation is about big issues, Obama cannot hide from his dismal economic record and complete failure of vision. In Obama’s own on-camera commercial — “the choice . . . couldn’t be bigger” — what’s his big idea? A 4.6-point increase in the marginal tax rate of 2 percent of the population. 
 
 That’s it? That’s his program? For a country with stagnant growth, ruinous debt and structural problems crying out for major entitlement and tax reform? Obama’s “plan” would cut the deficit from $1.20 trillion to $1.12 trillion. It’s a joke. 
 
 (c) Image. Ryan, fresh and 42, brings youth, energy and vitality — the very qualities Obama projected in 2008 and has by now depleted. “Hope and change” has become “the other guy killed a steelworker’s wife.” From transcendence to the political gutter in under four years. A new Olympic record. 
 
 While Ryan’s effect on 2012 is as yet undetermined — it depends on the success or failure of Mediscare — there is less doubt about the meaning of Ryan’s selection for beyond 2012. He could well become the face of Republicanism for a generation. 
 
 There’s a history here. By choosing George H.W. Bush in 1980, Ronald Reagan gave birth to a father-son dynasty that dominated the presidential scene for three decades. The Bush name was on six of seven consecutive national tickets. 
 
 When Dwight Eisenhower picked Richard Nixon in 1952, he turned a relatively obscure senator into a dominant national figure for a quarter-century, appearing on the presidential ticket in five of six consecutive elections. 
 
 Even losing VP candidates can ascend to party leader and presumptive presidential nominee. Ed Muskie so emerged in 1968, until he melted down in New Hampshire in 1972. Walter Mondale so emerged in 1980 and won the presidential nomination four years later. (The general election was another story.) 
 
 Winning is even better. Forty percent of 20th-century presidents were former VPs: Theodore Roosevelt, Coolidge, Truman, Johnson, Nixon, Ford and Bush (41). 
 
 Before Aug. 11, Ryan already was the party’s intellectual leader and de facto parliamentary leader — youngest-ever House Budget Committee chairman whose fiscal blueprint has driven congressional debate for two years. Now, however, he is second only to Romney as the party’s undisputed political leader. 
 
 And while Romney is the present, Ryan is the future. Romney’s fate will be determined on Nov. 6. Ryan’s presence, assuming he acquits himself well in the campaign, will extend for decades. 
 
 Ryan’s importance is enhanced by his identity as a movement conservative. Reagan was the first movement leader in modern times to achieve the presidency. Like him, Ryan represents a new kind of conservatism for his time. 
 
 Reagan rejected the moderate accommodationism represented by Gerald Ford, the sitting president Reagan nearly overthrew in 1976. Ryan represents a new constitutional conservatism of limited government and individual opportunity that carried Republicans to victory in 2010, not just as a rejection of Obama’s big-government hyper-liberalism but also as a significant departure from the philosophically undisciplined, idiosyncratically free-spending “compassionate conservatism” of Obama’s Republican predecessor. 
 
 Ryan’s role is to make the case for a serious approach to structural problems — a hardheaded, sober-hearted conservatism that puts to shame a reactionary liberalism that, with Greece in our future, offers handouts, bromides and a 4.6 percent increase in tax rates. 
 
 If Ryan does it well, win or lose in 2012, he becomes a dominant national force. Mild and moderate Mitt Romney will have shaped the conservative future for years to come. 
 
 The cunning of history. Or if you prefer, its sheer capriciousness. 
 
 letters@charleskrauthammer.com ||||| Story highlights Sen. Reid says Romney still isn't coming clean on taxes 
 
 Paul Ryan gets mixed reception at AARP event 
 
 Ryan and President Obama accuse each other of being untruthful 
 
 Obama says leadership means rejecting bad ideas 
 
 President Barack Obama and GOP vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan on Friday traded sharp criticism over health care reforms and Medicare, with each telling a leading advocacy group for senior citizens that the other was being untruthful. 
 
 "Contrary to what you've heard and what you may hear from subsequent speakers, Obamacare actually strengthened Medicare," the president told the AARP Liffe@50+ event, using the nickname for the 2010 Affordable Care Act that passed with no Republican support. 
 
 In particular, he called the claim by Ryan and other Republicans that $716 billion is being cut from Medicare to fund the health care bill "simply not true." 
 
 Ryan spoke to the same event shortly afterward, saying that Obama's contention that the health care law strengthened Medicare was "just not true," adding that the legislation "turned Medicare into a piggy bank for Obamacare." 
 
 The debate over Medicare is a major issue in the November election campaign, especially in the vital battleground state of Florida with its large population of senior citizens. 
 
 Ryan headed to Florida later Friday, while Obama campaigned in Virginia, Vice President Joe Biden spoke in New Hampshire and GOP presidential nominee Mitt Romney headed to Las Vegas. All four states are considered up-for-grabs in the election less than seven weeks away. 
 
 In a separate development, Romney released details of his 2011 income tax return that showed he made $13.7 million last year and paid $1.94 million in federal taxes, giving him an effective tax rate of 14.1%, his campaign said. 
 
 The majority of the candidate's income last year came from his investments, Brad Malt, the trustee of Romney's blind trust, said in a blog post. The Romneys gave just over $4 million to charity. 
 
 In addition, the Romney campaign said his tax filings from 1990 to 2009 show that he and his wife paid 100% of the federal and state income taxes they owed and that their overall average annual effective federal tax rate was 20.2%. 
 
 Romney has been criticized by Democrats and even some Republicans for not releasing more than two years worth of taxes. His wealth and investment industry background, as well as his father's decision to release a dozen years of tax records during his presidential run four decades ago, have only raised interest in Romney's returns. 
 
 Obama deputy campaign manager Stephanie Cutter said in a statement the disclosure "continues to mask Romney's true wealth" and income from the private equity firm he once led, leaving the American people in the dark about critical details of his finances. 
 
 Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nevada, called the new tax information insufficient. 
 
 "What we don't know is why he refuses to be straight with the American people about the choices he's made in his financial life," according to a statement from Reid, who previously created a stir when he alleged Romney paid no taxes in some years but refused to divulge the source of his accusation. 
 
 "When will the American people see the returns he filed before he was running for president?" Reid asked. 
 
 Obama responds to health care attacks 
 
 In his appearance by satellite at the AARP event in New Orleans, Obama responded to specific attacks on the health care law by Ryan and other Republicans, declaring the 2010 measure cuts waste and fraud in Medicare, provides preventive care to keep people healthier and reduces prescription drug costs for seniors. 
 
 Savings come from "using the purchasing power of Medicare to say to doctors and hospitals and insurance companies: 'You guys need to work smarter,'" Obama said to applause. "Instead of having five different tests that each of you is charging for, do one test and email it to everybody." 
 
 Ryan, the conservative House Budget Committee chairman from Wisconsin, has proposed a partial privatization of the entitlement that would provide government subsidies to help senior citizens pay for coverage they would choose from a list of options. 
 
 He defended the plan Friday in the face of a mixed reception. 
 
 "The first step to a stronger Medicare is to repeal Obamacare because it represents the worst of both worlds," Ryan said to loud booing. He added: "I had a feeling there'd be mixed reaction so let me get into it ." 
 
 "It weakens Medicare for today's seniors and puts it at risk for the next generation," Ryan said, repeating the factually challenged claim of $716 billion in Medicare cuts and also targeting a panel created under the health care law charged with recommending ways to reach targeted savings starting in 2014. 
 
 Ryan also took a swipe at Obama's re-election slogan of "Forward," saying it means "Forward into a future where seniors are denied the care they earned because a bureaucrat decided it wasn't worth the money." 
 
 In his remarks, Obama argued that Medicare savings come from "using the purchasing power of Medicare to say to doctors and hospitals and insurance companies: 'You guys need to work smarter." 
 
 "Instead of having five different tests that each of you is charging for, do one test and email it to everybody," he said to applause. 
 
 With polls showing Romney unable to overtake Obama with less than seven weeks to go until the November election, GOP infighting is showing a rising frustration over the candidate's campaign against a president saddled by high unemployment and a sluggish economy. 
 
 New figures show Obama and his allies raised nearly $85 million in August, outpacing Romney's haul in the month that included both parties' national conventions. 
 
 In Wisconsin, conservative candidate Tommy Thompson put some of the blame for his slipping poll numbers on the Romney campaign and conservative commentators, including former GOP speechwriter Peggy Noonan, have depicted the Romney team as floundering. 
 
 "Stop it. This is hard. You want to try it? Get in the ring," Ann Romney said of her husband's critics in an interview on Thursday with Radio Iowa. 
 
 Romney tweaked his campaign strategy twice this week in response to controversies that distracted from his main message challenging Obama's record as president. 
 
 On Thursday, he kept up attacks on Obama over a 1998 comment regarding redistribution of wealth, and also claimed the president had given up on changing Washington. The Obama camp fired back that the criticism was off base. 
 
 At the AARP event Friday, Obama said the Ryan proposal to reform Medicare would make it a voucher program that shifts health care costs to senior citizens. He noted that AARP supported the 2010 health care reform act and opposed Ryan's Medicare proposal. 
 
 "They know that a voucher program is not going to be a good deal," Obama said. 
 
 Ryan, however, denied it was a voucher program and insisted that the idea originated in Democratic proposals of the past. 
 
 "This financial support system is designed to guarantee that seniors can always afford Medicare coverage -- no exceptions," he said to some applause. 
 
 Members of AARP -- a nonprofit organization and a powerful lobbying group that boasts of having more than 37 million members -- submitted questions to the nominees on their website. 
 
 Tough stretch for Romney 
 
 Romney is coming off a tough stretch in the weeks before the three presidential debates in October. 
 
 Last week, the Romney campaign struggled in its initial response to anti-American violence in Libya and Egypt. Then a left-leaning magazine released secretly recorded clips of Romney speaking at a May fund-raiser in which he said 47% of Americans depended on government help, saw themselves as victims and won't support him. 
 
 Under criticism for the comments at the fund-raiser, Romney stuck by them and rallied some conservative commentators to his side by emphasizing his message on his allegation that Obama's polices increased public dependency on government. 
 
 In particular, they accused Obama of favoring wealth redistribution -- code for socialism among conservatives -- based on the 1998 video of the president when he was a state senator in Illinois. 
 
 "I think the trick is figuring out how do we structure government systems that pool resources and hence facilitate some redistribution -- because I actually believe in some redistribution, at least at a certain level to make sure that everybody's got a shot," Obama says in the clip, posted Tuesday on the conservative Drudge Report website. 
 
 The White House on Wednesday characterized the GOP attacks over the redistribution comment as an effort to divert attention from Romney's remarks at the May fundraiser. 
 
 Romney also took aim at Obama's comment on Thursday at a Univision "Meet the Candidates" forum in which the president said he was unable to change Washington from within. 
 
 House Speaker John Boehner continued the Romney attack line on Friday, saying Obama and congressional Democrats lacked the leadership qualities necessary to change the culture of partisan divide and legislative gridlock. 
 
 "It takes courage, it takes determination and it takes sincerity, and it's called leadership," Boehner told reporters. 
 
 Asked about the inability to work out compromises with Republicans on deficit reduction and other major issues, Obama blamed GOP intransigence and said he was being a leader by rejecting what he called "bad ideas." 
 
 He noted that his proposals, including the health care reform measure opposed by every Republican, included some ideas with GOP origins. 
 
 "Obamacare owes a debt to what was done in Massachusetts by my opponent, Mr. Romney, even though sometimes he denies it," the president said in a jab at his challenger, who passed a similar plan while governor of the state but now vows to repeal the federal version. 
 
 "The one thing I won't do though is go along with bad ideas that are not helping the middle class," Obama said to applause, adding: "If I hear the only way Republicans in Congress are willing to move forward is to voucherize Medicare, I'll say no."
– Assuming Paul Ryan doesn't flop over the next three months, then, win or lose, "he could well become the face of Republicanism for a generation," declares a happy Charles Krauthammer in the Washington Post. Ryan is the natural leader of a "new constitutional conservatism" in America, just as Reagan was in his time. And, oddly, the credit for shaping this "conservative future" goes to none other than Mitt Romney. As for 2012, the success of Romney-Ryan will hinge on which party controls the message on "Mediscare," writes Krauthammer, who wants the GOP to push the theme that Ryan's plan will save it while ObamaCare will gut it. Another prominent voice on the right, Peggy Noonan, suggests a campaign ad showing a "Clark Kent" character—that would be Ryan—saving Granny from going off a cliff. She also thinks that Ryan and Romney should campaign together all the time, against tradition, and that Ryan should do long, substantive interviews frequently. "Romney just threw a long ball," she writes in the Wall Street Journal. "Fine. The GOP will have to play an audacious, longball game." Read Noonan's full column here, Krauthammer's here.