HOUSTON (AP) — President Donald Trump escalated his immigration rhetoric at a midterm rally in Texas on Monday, falsely accusing Democrats of "encouraging millions of illegal aliens to break our laws, violate our borders and overwhelm our nation." 
 
 With weeks to go before Election Day, Trump is seeking to drive Republican turnout with his hard-line immigration policies. He cast the November choice in stark terms before the Houston rally for Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, saying Democrats "have launched an assault on the sovereignty of our country." 
 
 Trump spoke before a massive crowd on behalf of his former foe, who faces a strong challenge from Democratic Rep. Beto O'Rourke. When the two competed in the 2016 Republican presidential primary, Trump would frequently deride his rival as "Lyin' Ted" but said in Texas that their relationship had come a long way. 
 
 "Nobody has helped me more with your tax cut, with your regulation," Trump said, also attacking O'Rourke, as a "stone-cold phony." 
 
 With the midterms drawing near, Trump has emphasized immigration, targeting a migrant caravan heading to the U.S. southern border. The president's focus on immigration politics comes as he seeks to counter Democratic enthusiasm in November. Trump believes that his campaign pledges, including his much vaunted — and still-unfulfilled — promise to quickly build a U.S.-Mexico border wall, are still rallying cries. 
 
 Trump is betting that his latest focus will further erode the enthusiasm gap that began to close during the debate over Brett Kavanaugh, Trump's nominee for the Supreme Court. But the approach offers both risks and rewards. 
 
 The hard-line rhetoric may be popular among the red-state rural Republicans who will play an outsized role in the top Senate contests. But it may further alienate the moderate Republicans and women in the overwhelmingly suburban races that will decide the House majority — including several in Texas, California and Florida that feature large Hispanic populations. 
 
 On Monday night, Trump called the caravan an "assault on our country" and suggested, without citing evidence, that "Democrats had something to do with it." He added: "We need a wall built fast." 
 
 Earlier Monday, Trump said the U.S. will begin "cutting off, or substantially reducing" aid to three Central American nations because of the caravan. 
 
 In Texas, an enthusiastic crowd packed into Houston's Toyota Center, wearing red Make America Great Again hats and waving signs, including some with the president's new catchphrase, "Jobs vs. Mobs." 
 
 Speaking before Trump took the stage, Cruz made clear that their conflict was behind them and that the two were working together. His biggest applause came when he predicted that "in 2020, Donald Trump will be overwhelmingly re-elected." 
 
 A series of elected state officials were among the warmup speakers, as well as Trump's daughter-in-law Lara Trump and son Eric Trump, who told the audience that "we are driving the Democrats absolutely nuts." 
 
 Trump gleefully used his latest attack line against Democrats, saying, "Democrats produce mobs, Republicans produce jobs." He declared Democrats would be a "big risk to the American family," and went after some of his favorite targets, including Democratic House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, California Rep. Maxine Waters, New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker and Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren. 
 
 The president stressed tax cuts, the strong economy and the hurricane response in the state. He repeated his pledge for a new middle-income tax cut of about 10 percent, though he offered few details on the plan. Trump said they would be "putting it in" next week, though Congress is not in session. 
 
 Trump also criticized so-called globalists, declaring, "You know what I am? I'm a nationalist." 
 
 Trump's Texas stop is part of a campaign blitz that is expected to last until Election Day. 
 
 Although political relationships tend to be fluid, Trump's appearance for Cruz is notable, given that the two were bitter enemies during the 2016 primaries. After Trump insulted Cruz's wife and father, and Cruz refused to endorse Trump at the Republican National Convention, it was far from clear that the two would ever put it all behind them. 
 
 But they started rebuilding in the closing days of the campaign and have worked together since Trump took the White House. 
 
 The White House views Cruz as a loyal vote for his agenda. Trump promised he would come to Texas after the Senate race grew closer than expected, with O'Rourke out-fundraising Cruz and drawing large and enthusiastic crowds around the state. Cruz, who is leading O'Rourke in the polls, said over the summer that he would welcome Trump's support, though he has brushed off any suggestion he'd need Trump to win. 
 
 During the 2016 Republican primary, Trump assailed Cruz as a liar and "dishonest politician," insulted his wife's appearance and promoted unsubstantiated claims that Cruz's father had links to President John F. Kennedy's assassin, Lee Harvey Oswald. 
 
 Trump on Monday did not voice any second thoughts about labeling Cruz the son of a presidential killer, telling reporters, "I don't regret anything." 
 
 Cruz gave back as good as he got in 2016. He savaged Trump as a "pathological liar," an "amoral bully" and a "sniveling coward." After Cruz lost the primary, he gave a speech at the Republican National Convention in which he did not endorse Trump and instead called on Republicans to "vote your conscience," drawing boos from the crowd. But he announced his support about a month before Election Day — and won points in Trump's camp for not withdrawing after the "Access Hollywood" tape was released in which Trump bragged about groping women. 
 
 ___ 
 
 Associated Press writer Steve Peoples in New York contributed to this report. ||||| (CNN) Before the midterm elections, CNN Opinion asked commentators to weigh in on the races they were watching most closely. We have asked those commentators to assess the outcome of those races -- and what they mean for the future of American politics. The views expressed are solely their own. 
 
 Raul Reyes: Chances are, we have not heard the last from Beto 
 
 On Tuesday, just hours before the polls closed in Texas, Beyonce made a surprise endorsement for Democrat Beto O'Rourke over Republican Ted Cruz in the race for Texas senator. Maybe Queen Bey should have weighed in a little sooner. Maybe O'Rourke should have run a more traditional campaign, instead of refusing to run negative ads. Maybe O'Rourke should have worked harder at winning over Republican voters, rather than focusing on identifying new voters. 
 
 The "what-if's" will no doubt linger around O'Rourke's candidacy for a long time, as incumbent Cruz defeated him in the Lone Star State by single digits. Though O'Rourke excited voters in a way reminiscent of Barack Obama, this was not Beto's night. His narrow defeat was a heartbreaker for Democrats who have long dreamed of turning this state blue. 
 
 Still, this has been an extraordinary campaign, one that O'Rourke can and should be proud of. If he had run a conventional campaign, it likely would not have captured national attention, inspired Texas Democrats and made "Beto" a household name . O'Rourke should be pleased with the fact that he has awakened the state's Democrats. Just the fact that, until around 10 p.m. Tuesday night, the race was seen as a tossup is an accomplishment in itself. 
 
 O'Rourke has shown that a progressive Democrat can mount a serious challenge in a red state. He has brought in thousands of first-time voters, among them many Latinos and millennials. And he did this while refraining from personal attacks and staying true to his inclusive values. 
 
 Ted Cruz likely benefitted from the structural electoral advantages that Republicans enjoy in Texas -- as well as a healthy dose of political tribalism. But thanks to his charisma and sharp political instincts, O'Rourke has made a substantial impact on Texas politics. He is well-positioned to challenge Sen. John Cornyn, or even consider a presidential run. Chances are, we have not heard the last from Beto. 
 
 Raul A. Reyes is an attorney and member of the USA Today board of contributors. Follow him on Twitter @RaulAReyes 
 
 Jennifer L. Lawless: Three lessons from Texas 23 
 
 Republican incumbent Will Hurd's win over Gina Jones in Texas' 23rd Congressional District race demonstrates three important lessons about the midterms. 
 
 First, TX-23 is one of the 23 House districts that voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, but which sent a Republican to Congress. Both parties were laser-focused on this year's race because it was prime real estate to flip. The fact that the GOP held it yet the Democrats still found a path to control the House highlights the importance of broadening the electoral map. A loss in TX-23 would have been devastating for Democrats had fewer districts been in play. 
 
 Second, a compelling profile can only take a candidate so far. Gina Jones' background was a progressive Democratic voter's dream come true. She's young. She's gay. She's a woman of color. She's an Iraq War veteran. But even if she motivated and energized Democrats, there weren't enough of them in the district. 
 
 Third, Hurd's win isn't synonymous with a Donald Trump victory. Hurd isn't a Trump acolyte. He differs from the President on DACA and the border wall (not surprising given that the district is 55% Hispanic). And as a former CIA official, he's condemned the administration for how it handled Russian interference in the 2016 election. Hurd didn't embrace Trump and managed to eke out a win, probably to the president's chagrin. 
 
 TX-23 reminds us that even in a nationalized election, some politics are still local. 
 
 Jennifer L. Lawless is the Commonwealth Professor of Politics at the University of Virginia. 
 
 Julian Zelizer: Trumpism was victorious in Tennessee 
 
 Tennessee produced an important victory for Trumpism, a Republican agenda that revolves around nativism, tariffs and nationalism -- as well as an unorthodox style of governance. The state's Senate race was perceived by both parties as a good test of what kind of impact Trump was having in territory that was friendly to him in 2016. 
 
 Democrats were hoping that the former governor, Phil Bredesen, a moderate and beloved politician, could defeat the conservative Representative Marsha Blackburn, a close ally of Trump. 
 
 And Bredesen put up a good fight. He stuck to whatever center still exists in American politics -- supporting Judge Brett Kavanaugh and saying he wouldn't vote for Sen. Chuck Schumer as the party leader. But the fact that he could not pull this off will be deflating. 
 
 If the Senate remains in Republican hands, the administration and the Republican leadership will certainly read into the results signs that the last month's aggressive partisan strategy worked -- play to the base, be as rightward as possible and do not cede anything to moderation. 
 
 The message from Tennessee will also have an effect on Democrats, as they start sorting through what kind of candidates they want to run in 2020 -- with an inevitable battle between those who favor centrists and those who want progressives. Bredesen's inability to pull off a victory in Tennessee means there is little hope that anyone else in the party can. 
 
 With Tennessee, even in an evening when Republicans suffered in swing House districts, score one for Trumpism. 
 
 Julian Zelizer is a professor of history and public affairs at Princeton University and author of "The Fierce Urgency of Now: Lyndon Johnson, Congress and the Battle for the Great Society." 
 
 Sally Kohn: Georgia's 6th District reminds us why every vote matters 
 
 When Democrat Lucy McBath announced her candidacy to unseat Republican incumbent Karen Handel in Georgia's 6th, no one really thought the flight attendant turned gun control advocate had a chance. After all, Handel had won her seat in the fiercely contested special election against Democrat Jon Ossoff in June 2017. While Ossoff broke fundraising records and almost became a national rock star, Handel ultimately won by more than 3 percentage points. 
 
 Georgia's 6th District -- the one that once sent Republican Newt Gingrich to Congress -- is historically red and 60% white. McBath is a black woman who rose to prominence as a voice in the Black Lives Matter movement after her 17-year-old son, Jordan Davis, was shot and killed by a white man at a gas station after an argument over the volume of music playing in the teen's car. 
 
 So what happened in the election? As of Thursday morning, McBath won. What's more, it appears turnout in the district this midterm election nearly matches that of 2016 , which is highly unusual. 
 
 In addition, a strong base of volunteers showed up for both McBath and Democratic gubernatorial candidate Stacey Abrams, at the top of the state ticket. What really seems to distinguish this election is the level of sustained and enthusiastic grassroots support across the country. Trump supporters may have shown up in big numbers to attend rallies in airport hangars, but Democrats knocked on millions of doors, made millions of calls and mobilized in ways that will continue to shake politics in this country. That surge of progressive grassroots action is just beginning. George Goehl, the director of People's Action, rightly called the midterm results a "people's wave." 
 
 That's in a state where allegations of voter suppression were widely reported, especially after Georgia's secretary of state and Republican gubernatorial candidate Brian Kemp canceled more than 1.4 million voter registrations since 2012, according to The Associated Press . Republicans and Trump made clear in this election that they're willing to fight dirty by spreading hate or actively discouraging people from voting. And the Georgia 6th race reminds us why every vote matters. 
 
 Sally Kohn is a CNN political commentator and author of the book, "The Opposite of Hate." 
 
 Jeff Yang: Never underestimate a well-run Democratic campaign 
 
 In a night where the Democratic Party's hope for a blue tidal wave was tempered by a redder-than-expected reality, Antonio Delgado's victory in New York's 19th Congressional District was a sterling example of how the traditional combination of an appealing candidate, methodical grassroots organizing, and, of course, an ample war chest is still the formula for success in demographically challenging areas. 
 
 Delgado, running as a pragmatic progressive in a rural, 84% white district that Trump won, set incumbent John Faso back on his heels with his ability to fund-raise and with competitive results in early polls. 
 
 Republicans tried to fight him by playing the racial fear card, running an ad referring to Delgado as an ex-rapper whose profane lyrics and left-wing politics showed him to be out of touch with the values of the community -- obscuring Delgado's status as a Harvard-educated lawyer and Rhodes scholar. 
 
 The ads may have backfired; at the least, they led to articles shaming Faso's clumsy attempt at race-baiting in the New York Times, Washington Post, New York magazine and local papers like the Times-Union. This allowed Delgado to avoid directly responding to the attacks, while focusing on more pertinent concerns for the district, such as health care, a topic on which Faso, who had voted to kill Obamacare, was already vulnerable. The victory polishes Delgado's status as a potential rising star in the Democratic Party -- which the party needs, given its lackluster bench going forward into 2020 and beyond. 
 
 Jeff Yang is a frequent contributor to CNN Opinion, a featured writer for Quartz and other publications, and the co-host of the podcast "They Call Us Bruce." 
 
 Scott Jennings: Progressives cannot win in Kentucky 
 
 Republican incumbent Andy Barr in Kentucky's 6th Congressional District found himself in a dogfight with Democratic challenger Amy McGrath, a former fighter pilot who came home to storm her primary and give Democrats hope in a district that covers Kentucky's beautiful bluegrass region. 
 
 But Barr brought in a wingman -- President Donald Trump -- and defeated McGrath in one of the closest congressional races in recent Kentucky history. 
 
 Trump rallied for Barr in Madison County, where thousands packed an arena on the campus of Eastern Kentucky University in Richmond. And when the votes were tallied on election night Madison delivered for Barr, giving him 59% of the vote and a nearly 7,000-vote margin. 
 
 Republican turnout in the district's rural counties overcame McGrath's strong showing in Fayette County, the urban heart of the district. There was some Republican handwringing over whether Barr should cleave so closely to Trump, but the campaign made the correct call and used the President in just the right way, giving Barr his happy landing. 
 
 This campaign showed the value of opposition research. Insiders say McGrath had a double-digit polling lead during the summer, but crashed back to earth when the Barr campaign unleashed tapes of her talking to liberal donors at out-of-state fundraisers. 
 
 "I am further left, I am more progressive, than anyone in the state of Kentucky," McGrath told her donors in one speech, a clip of which appeared in numerous sidewinders fired off by Barr and the Republicans in their ad barrage. Note to future candidates: everything you say anywhere might follow you home. 
 
 McGrath's strong showing could make her a player for a future contest, perhaps a state office in 2019 or a run for US Senate in 2020 or 2022 when senators Mitch McConnell and Rand Paul next face the voters, respectively. But given the damage the opposition research did to McGrath's image in a purplish district like Kentucky's sixth, it's hard to imagine her words playing any better throughout the redder portions of Kentucky. 
 
 Trump will be at the top of the ticket in 2020, and his alliance with McConnell will make it hard for any self-professed progressive to overcome the President and Senate majority leader in a state that's among the most receptive to the #MAGA agenda. 
 
 Scott Jennings, a CNN contributor, is a former special assistant to President George W. Bush and former campaign adviser to Sen. Mitch McConnell. He is a partner at RunSwitch Public Relations in Louisville, Kentucky. Follow him on Twitter @ScottJenningsKY. 
 
 Jen Psaki: Sometimes the national party gets it right 
 
 On a night when Texas sent Ted Cruz back to the Senate, his opponent still made a significant contribution to a big democratic night. Beto O'Rourke's grassroots turnout operation,and energizing message helped bring more Democrats to the polls and helped Lizzie Fletcher defeat John Culberson in Texas' 7th Congressional District. 
 
 Fletcher ran a smart race focused on health care and Culberson's votes to repeal the Affordable Care Act. And she successfully appealed to the anger and frustration of women in the Houston suburbs, including independent and Republican women, who were eager to send a message to President Donald Trump. 
 
 This race also showed that, once again, Democrats can come together after a bruising primary contest -- even one where the national party ham-handedly weighed in with opposition research against the primary candidate they viewed as weaker. Whether or not it was the right tactic, the Democrats ended up with the nominee they wanted and a nominee who won a crucial southern seat. 
 
 Jen Psaki, a CNN political commentator, was the White House communications director and State Department spokeswoman during the Obama administration. She is vice president of communications and strategy at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Follow her at @jrpsaki. 
 
 Robby Soave: It's tough out there for third-party candidates 
 
 Former Gov. Gary Johnson came up well short in his third-party bid for New Mexico's Senate seat -- a familiar outcome for the Libertarian presidential aspirant. 
 
 Johnson, who previously earned 3% of the national popular vote in the 2016 presidential election, entered New Mexico's Senate race in early August. He took an early lead over Republican candidate Mark Rich, but trailed incumbent Democratic Sen. Martin Heinrich. An early Emerson College poll put Johnson at 21% vs. Rich's 11% and Heinrich's 39%. That turned out to be the high-water mark for Johnson; his support collapsed in subsequent polls. News outlets called the race on Tuesday night for Heinrich. 
 
 It's tough out there for third-party candidates. Dissatisfied voters who plan to spurn the two major parties often come around and cast a lesser-of-two-evils vote for one or the other. Johnson, for instance, was polling at 10% at various points in 2016, but the final tally -- while still the strongest showing for a third-party candidate since Ross Perot -- was just over 3%. 
 
 Johnson's loss is not unexpected, but it's still a pity. An independent senator willing to challenge Trump and the Democratic Party would have been a welcome change of pace. Alas, the two-party duopoly is tough to break, no matter how many Americans would prefer a wider variety of choices. 
 
 Robby Soave writes for the libertarian magazine Reason . Follow him on Twitter @robbysoave 
 
 Haroon Moghul: Ojeda represented something unusual 
 
 I wanted Richard Ojeda to win, not just because he is a Democrat, but because he represented something as important as it is unusual. A one-time Trump supporter, the military veteran switched sides, not out of crass political calculation -- West Virginia, whose 3rd Congressional District he ran in, is obviously not a blue state -- but out of genuine conviction. He believed, and rightly, that the President was not keeping his promises, that his fellow West Virginians were better represented by a party that cared for and fought for them. Ojeda represented, in other words, the possibility of partisan fluidity. 
 
 It may be that, in a district where he had little, if any, realistic chance of victory, there is no larger lesson to be learned. It could be, though, that this speaks to a disquieting obstacle; that, come 2020, Democrats will be doomed by a terrible trinity: gerrymandering, an Electoral College that slights majorities and party loyalty impossible to transcend. 
 
 But in the same state where Ojeda lost to Carol Miller, the state Trump won by a whopping 42%, Democratic incumbent Sen. Joe Manchin held on. However, Manchin voted to confirm Kavanaugh. That's another kind of partisan fluidity. 
 
 Be careful what you wish for. 
 
 Haroon Moghul is Fellow in Jewish-Muslim Relations at the Shalom Hartman Institute of North America, and author of "How to be a Muslim: An American Story." 
 
 Errol Louis: DeSantis benefited from the Trump boost 
 
 Andrew Gillum's potential loss to Ron DeSantis in the race for Florida governor continues a pattern: Democrats, who have frequently carried the Sunshine State in presidential contests, have not won the governor's mansion since 1998, despite coming within 1% of victory three times. 
 
 The race was nasty from the very start, with DeSantis drawing criticism for warning supporters not to "monkey this up" by losing to Gillum -- a statement immediately condemned as racist by DeSantis critics. 
 
 Gillum, the mayor of Tallahassee, at first looked like the candidate to change the Democrats' luck. He led in 34 out of 37 polls leading up to election day; the final pre-election sounding by NBC News/Marist found Gillum leading DeSantis by a healthy 50% to 46%. 
 
 Gillum rolled up decent majorities in urban areas, including Jacksonville, Tampa, Miami and his base in Tallahassee. But last-minute campaigning by President Donald Trump boosted the turnout for DeSantis in Republican strongholds, as well as many suburban and exurban communities surrounding the Democratic cities. 
 
 One bright sign on the horizon for Democrats is the passage of a voter referendum that abolishes Florida's onerous practice of banning ex-felons from voting for life unless a special pardon was granted. The restoration of voting rights could add more than 1 million voters to the rolls. That could be a game-changer in a future race. 
 
 Errol Louis is the host of "Inside City Hall," a nightly political show on NY1, a New York all-news channel. 
 
 Tara Setmayer: It may be another generation before we see a New Jersey GOP Senator 
 
 Democratic incumbent Bob Medendez won his third term handily, despite his ethics-plagued tenure. His Republican challenger, Bob Hugin, tried to make the race a referendum on Menendez's scandals by spending $36 million of his own money in what became one of the nastiest Senate races in the country. Hugin spent millions on TV ads alone, hammering Menendez on his alleged corruption and outspending the incumbent two to one . But he could not overcome Trump's unpopularity in a state where the blue wave crashed ashore with a vengeance. 
 
 Hugin gave Democrats a scare when he pulled within single digits of Menendez, prompting the party to infuse almost $8 million into a race that shouldn't have been competitive in the first place. Menendez's ethical issues in office created lukewarm support for him within the party. Democrats were already in a tough spot defending multiple Senate seats in red states that Trump won in 2016. The last thing they wanted to do was spend that kind of money in a reliably blue state like New Jersey. It took home state elected officials like Senator Cory Booker and Governor Phil Murphy to use their political capital to convince reluctant Democrats to hold their noses and support Menendez. 
 
 Given how well Democrats performed in New Jersey, turning three long-time Republican congressional districts blue, it may be another generation before we see a GOP senator from the Garden State. 
 
 Tara Setmayer, a CNN political commentator, is the host of the "Honestly Speaking with Tara" podcast. Follow her on Twitter @tarasetmayer. ||||| Shocking turnout for first day of early voting in Houston 
 
 Thousands of people were already camped out at a key early voting location in Houston on Monday morning, hours before voting was even set to begin. 
 
 Nearly 2,000 people stood in line outside of the Metropolitan Multi-Service Center on West Gray near River Oaks in a scene that looked more like a Black Friday shopping morning. 
 
 BETO IN THE BURBS: O'Rourke touts willingness to serve all Texans in Conroe visit 
 
 "This is one of the most important elections of our lifetimes," said Cody Pogue, who arrived at 8:30 p.m. on Sunday to make sure he'd be one of the first people to cast a ballot for Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Beto O'Rourke. 
 
 Whoa. This is the line for early voting in #Houston. Literally people camped out last night so they could be among the first to vote. “This is one of the most important elections of our lifetimes,” Cody Pogue tells me pic.twitter.com/swtTEmcjcZ — Jeremy Wallace (@JeremySWallace) October 22, 2018 
 
 Just moments later, O'Rourke was across the street firing up his supporters with a bullhorn. 
 
 "Are y'all ready?" O'Rourke said to a cascade of cheers. "Houston, I love you." 
 
 Karen Bard, who was in line more than an hour before the polls opened, said she doesn't normally vote in midterms, but O'Rourke changed that. 
 
 "It's not about me, it's about my kids," Bard said. 
 
 BRACING FOR THE PRESIDENT: Street closures in Downtown Houston for Trump's appearance 
 
 O'Rourke has a half-dozen rallies planned all over the Houston area on Monday to start early voting. 
 
 Those rallies come as U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz brings in President Donald Trump for a rally to back his campaign at the 18,000-seat Toyota Center. Trump took to Twitter just as polls were opening in Texas. 
 
 "Big Night In Texas!!!!" Trump tweeted. 
 
 Big Night In Texas!!!! — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 22, 2018 
 
 On Sunday, Cruz brought in Gov. Greg Abbott for a rally in Houston to boost GOP turnout. Both warned that O'Rourke represents a national Democratic Party trying to turn Texas into a liberal state. 
 
 "Now there are a whole bunch of national Democrats that want to turn Texas into California," Cruz said calling on his supporters to turn out in big numbers to push back against them. 
 
 Abbott said despite national Democrats wanting to turn Texas blue, he is convinced Cruz will prevail. 
 
 VITAL INFORMATION: When, where can I early vote in Houston? Here's everything you need to know 
 
 "Ted Cruz is going to win because Beto is hostile to Texas values," he said. 
 
 O'Rourke meanwhile objected to the partisan undertones in Abbott's and Cruz's message. In an interview with the Houston Chronicle on Sunday night in Sugar Land, he said this election isn't about Texas being red or blue. 
 
 "Who cares about the partisan color of Texas?" O'Rourke said. "I could give a damn about what party you are in." ||||| Democrats are tamping down expectations for a “blue wave” two weeks before the midterm elections as key races in the House tighten and winning back the Senate majority looks increasingly out of reach. 
 
 Democratic National Committee (DNC) chairman Tom Perez Thomas Edward PerezClinton’s top five vice presidential picks Government social programs: Triumph of hope over evidence Labor’s 'wasteful spending and mismanagement” at Workers’ Comp MORE said on CNN's “New Day” that he doesn’t use the term “blue wave,” and added that he’s always thought this year’s races would be close. 
 
 Separately, Sen. Bernie Sanders Bernard (Bernie) SandersOvernight Health Care: Drug industry nervous about Grassley | CDC warns public not to eat romaine lettuce | Sanders unveils new drug pricing bill Sanders and Khanna have a plan to lower your drug prices 2020 Democrats challenge Trump's use of troops at Mexico border MORE (I-Vt.), who's campaigning for Democratic candidates, said he doesn’t believe in a blue wave. 
 
 “I know a lot of people talk about this blue wave. I don’t believe it,” Sanders told “Rising” Hill.TV co-host Krystal Ball. 
 
 “I happen to think that on election night you’re going to find a very close situation and maybe a handful of votes determining whether Democrats are gaining control of the House,” he said. 
 
 The remarks by Perez and Sanders could be seen as a way of motivating the Democratic base. 
 
 Many Democrats are convinced that the 2016 presidential race was lost in part because Democratic voters didn’t show up, perhaps because they thought there was little chance that Republican Donald Trump would win. 
 
 Talk of a blue wave sends the signal that Democrats have races in the bag, and that voters don’t need to come to the polls on Nov. 6. 
 
 “I think it’s really, really smart and if you look at some of our strongest candidates, they’re being very thoughtful and very intelligent on how they’re approaching this, which is always run like your 10 points down,” said Jon Reinish, a Democratic strategist and former aide to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand Kirsten Elizabeth Gillibrand2020 Democrats challenge Trump's use of troops at Mexico border Some of us Midwesterners think maybe Amy Klobuchar would do OK as president Banking panel showcases 2020 Dems MORE (D-N.Y.). 
 
 “It’s less of an expectation management game than it is a turnout game,” he added. “Never say ‘we’ve got this.’ " 
 
 At the same time, there are real reasons for Democrats to fret over their chances given President Trump Donald John TrumpTrump: WHCA picking non-comedian for headliner a 'good first step' Five takeaways from Mississippi's Senate debate Watergate’s John Dean: Nixon would tell Trump 'he's going too far' MORE’s rising approval ratings, fallout from the fight over Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh Brett Michael KavanaughAvenatti: ‘I will be fully exonerated’ The future of abortion politics is changing Senate barrels toward showdown over Trump's court picks MORE’s confirmation fight and a strong economy the White House has taken credit for delivering. 
 
 Perez still said he has “a lot of confidence” that his party will win back the House. 
 
 Democrats have led Republicans on the generic congressional ballot in virtually every public poll conducted over the past year, and an NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey released Monday gave the party a 9-point lead over the GOP in the race to control Congress. 
 
 Some Democrats insist that winning the bare minimum of 23 seats needed to flip the House still amounts to a wave. 
 
 “Winning 23 seats is a wave,” said a Democratic strategist familiar with House races. “The frustration among some Democrats is losing sight of how big of an accomplishment it is. 
 
 “People built expectations for this giant tsunami without the evidence there. The people actually looking at that data, in this fight, know how hard it is and are not taking anything for granted.” 
 
 Perez acknowledged, however, that the race for the Senate presents “a tougher map” for Democrats. 
 
 More than two dozen of the party’s incumbents are defending their seats this year, including 10 in states won by Trump in 2016, and Republicans are eager to expand their slim 51-49 majority by flipping seats in deep-red states, such as North Dakota, Indiana and Missouri. 
 
 Democrats believe they have benefited from an enthusiasm gap with Republicans for most of the year, but there are some signs that GOP voters are getting more motivated ahead of Nov. 6. 
 
 Trump has been campaigning across the country and is increasingly using the bully pulpit to steer the national conversation toward issues such as the immigrant caravan headed toward the U.S. border with Mexico — something seemingly designed to fire up his base. 
 
 Early voting in some critical battlegrounds as of Monday found that GOP-affiliated voters are outnumbering the Democratic-affiliated voters in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, Tennessee and Texas, according to TargetSmart data analyzed by NBC News. 
 
 Democratic-affiliated voters outpaced GOP ones only in Nevada, according to the report. 
 
 Democrats are also worried about laws in crucial pockets of the country that could suppress Democratic voters. 
 
 These allegations have become a dominant issue in Georgia’s nationally watched governor’s race between former state House minority leader Stacey Abrams (D) and Republican Secretary of State Brian Kemp. If elected, Abrams would be the first black woman to serve as governor in U.S history. 
 
 An APM Reports analysis found an estimated 107,000 voters in Georgia have been removed from the state’s voter rolls because of the “use it or lose it” law, which removes people who have not voted or made contact with an election official over three years. 
 
 Kemp, who oversees the state’s elections, said his office is following the law and has worked to prevent voter fraud. 
 
 “There are so many ways that Republicans have tried to make voting less accessible to voters over the last two years,” a former DNC aide told The Hill. “We’re really cautious of what the impact of those actions will be going to the polls and how many people are able to vote.” 
 
 Some Democratic strategists are also exercising caution about their midterm prospects because they’re “still a little scarred," in the words of one observer, after Trump’s shock victory over Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton Hillary Diane Rodham ClintonWatergate’s John Dean: Nixon would tell Trump 'he's going too far' Senate Homeland Security chairman requests briefing on Ivanka Trump emails House GOP to hold hearing into DOJ’s probe of Clinton Foundation MORE in the 2016 presidential election. 
 
 Trump has stepped up campaigning for Republicans in the final stretch of the campaign, attracting thousands of Republicans, while expressing confidence about the party’s prospects. 
 
 In recent rallies, the president has also sought to cast Democrats as unfit to govern and has spoken intermittently about a coming “red wave” that would expand the Republican majorities in both chambers. ||||| A voter arrives as a worker walks past during early voting at a polling place in Charlotte, N.C., Tuesday, Oct. 23, 2018. (AP Photo/Chuck Burton) (Associated Press) 
 
 A voter arrives as a worker walks past during early voting at a polling place in Charlotte, N.C., Tuesday, Oct. 23, 2018. (AP Photo/Chuck Burton) (Associated Press) 
 
 NEW YORK (AP) — In the closing stretch of the 2018 campaign, the question is no longer the size of the Democratic wave. It's whether there will be a wave at all. 
 
 Top operatives in both political parties concede that Democrats' narrow path to the Senate majority has essentially disappeared, a casualty of surging Republican enthusiasm across GOP strongholds. At the same time, leading Democrats now fear the battle for the House majority will be decided by just a handful of seats. 
 
 "It's always been an inside straight, and it still is," Democratic pollster Paul Maslin said of Democrats' outlook in the Senate, where they need to pick up two seats while holding on to several others in Republican-leaning states to seize the majority. "If it had been a different year, with a different map, we might have had a terrific sweep. That would be a long shot." 
 
 While the trend may be troubling for Democrats, the evolving political landscape remains unsettled two weeks before Election Day, even with millions of votes already cast across 20 states. 
 
 There are signs that the Democrats' position in the expanding House battlefield may actually be improving. Yet Republican candidates locked in tight races from New York to Nevada find themselves in stronger-than-expected positions because of a bump in President Donald Trump's popularity, the aftermath of a divisive Supreme Court fight and the sudden focus on a caravan of Latin American immigrants seeking asylum at the U.S. border. 
 
 Democrats say they never assumed it would be easy. 
 
 "It's still much closer than people think, with a surprise or two in the wings," New York Sen. Chuck Schumer, the top Senate Democrat, told The Associated Press. 
 
 The midterm elections will decide whether Republicans maintain control of Congress for the final two years of Trump's first term. Even if Democrats lose the Senate and win the House, they could block much of Trump's agenda and use subpoena power to investigate his many scandals. Some in the party's far-left wing have also vowed to impeach the president, while others promise to roll back the Republican tax overhaul and expand health care coverage for all Americans. 
 
 Democrats have enjoyed an overwhelming enthusiasm advantage for much of the Trump era. They hope an explosion of early voting across states like Florida, Texas and Nevada is further proof of their enthusiasm gap. 
 
 It took voters in the Houston area less than six hours Monday to set a new opening day record for early voting during a midterm election. And in some Florida counties, two and three times as many voters cast ballots on the first day of early voting Monday compared to four years ago. 
 
 Public and private polling, however, suggests the GOP is getting more excited as Nov. 6 approaches. 
 
 "Republican enthusiasm doesn't quite equal the white-hot enthusiasm of Democratic voters, but the Kavanaugh hearings got it pretty close," said GOP consultant Whit Ayres. 
 
 He also attributes the party's strong position on an unusual Senate map. Democrats are defending 26 seats of the 35 seats in play, including 10 in states that Trump carried in 2016. Ayres calls it "maybe the most Republican-leaning map of our lifetimes." 
 
 He expects the GOP to maintain the Senate majority, perhaps adding a seat or two to its current 51-49 edge. Others have begun to envision the GOP picking up as many as four or five new seats. 
 
 Democrats, meanwhile, have effectively protected their Senate candidates in states across the Midwest — Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — that helped give Trump the presidency in 2016. They are increasingly pessimistic about picking up any seats, however. 
 
 The Tennessee Senate contest, in particular, has shifted sharply in Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn's direction in recent weeks, while Democratic pickup opportunities in Arizona and Nevada are now considered toss-ups. In a measure of the deep uncertainty that has defined the Trump era, only one Democratic incumbent — North Dakota's Heidi Heitkamp — is seen as most in danger of losing. 
 
 After Heitkamp, Democrats facing the greatest risk of defeat are Joe Donnelly of Indiana, Claire McCaskill of Missouri, and perhaps Bill Nelson of Florida. Texas Democratic Senate candidate Beto O'Rourke has shattered fundraising records and developed a national following, but polls have consistently given Republican Sen. Ted Cruz a significant lead against him. 
 
 In the race for the House, both sides acknowledge the prospect of a wipeout-style wave is shrinking. 
 
 It's not that Democrats won't be able to wrestle the House majority. But Republican lawmakers are increasingly optimistic, in part because of Trump's recent performance as the GOP's campaigner in chief. 
 
 Republicans say the often-volatile president has been surprisingly on-message during his campaign events, touting the strong economy and doubling down on the Kavanaugh fight to promote his efforts to fill courts with conservative jurists. And while Trump has been criticized by members of his own party for his handling of the case of the death of a Saudi journalist working for The Washington Post, operatives say the matter appears to be having little impact on voters. 
 
 On a conference call last week, House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., urged rank-and-file lawmakers to pony up extra cash and help for tough races. They see hopeful signs in Iowa, Florida and Kansas. 
 
 Rep. Tom Cole, R-Okla., emerged from the call saying it's going to be a "dogfight" to the finish. 
 
 There are signs, however, that Democrats are expanding the House battlefield as Election Day approaches. 
 
 Republicans in recent days have pumped new money into House districts held by Republicans in Florida, Georgia, Virginia and New York, suggesting they're on the defensive. Already, Democrats invested in nearly 80 races, including more than a dozen legitimate pickup opportunities in districts Trump carried by at least 9 points. 
 
 Democrats need a net gain of 23 seats to claim the House majority. 
 
 The massive battlefield remains a problem for Republicans, who have struggled to match Democratic fundraising and face several first-time candidates not yet tainted by Washington. 
 
 Still, Dan Sena, the executive director of the House Democrats campaign arm, recently predicted Democrats would win the majority by only two seats. 
 
 The Republican shift is not playing out as planned. 
 
 The GOP hoped its tax cuts would fuel their midterm message. After they proved unpopular, Republicans largely abandoned their most significant policy achievement in the Trump era in favor of a more familiar message of anger and fear. 
 
 The super PAC aligned with House Speaker Paul Ryan, which is expected to spend $100 million before Election Day — most of it on attack ads — highlighted the shifting landscape in a memo to donors. 
 
 "The polling momentum that began with the Supreme Court confirmation hearings has continued, and the environment has continued to improve," wrote Corry Bliss, executive director of the Congressional Leadership Fund. Still, he wrote, "20 races that will decide the majority remain a coin-flip." 
 
 ___ 
 
 Beaumont reported from Des Moines, Iowa. Mascaro reported from Washington. AP writers Alan Fram and Julie Pace in Washington contributed to this report.
– With two weeks to go until the midterm elections, passions—and voter turnout—are running high in Texas. In Houston early Monday, thousands of people lined up at a voting location hours before early voting began, the Houston Chronicle reports. Authorities say early voting turnout has been much higher than in 2014 across the state's biggest counties. Renée Cross, senior director for the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston, tells the Texas Tribune that the numbers are "very impressive." "We see so much anger or enthusiasm about candidates in much higher numbers than we’ve ever seen," she says. "From a political standpoint, I think there’s just as much energy that we’ve seen in presidential years." In other election news: Trump praises "Beautiful Ted." President Trump appeared at a Houston rally for Sen. Ted Cruz on Monday, where both men made it clear the bitterness of the 2016 campaign was behind them. Before he flew to Texas, Trump told reporters that he now called Cruz "Beautiful Ted" or "Texas Ted" instead of "Lyin' Ted," reports the Washington Post. At the rally, the two men embraced and Cruz told the crowd that he is looking forward to hitting the campaign trail for Trump's re-election bid in 2020. Trump described Cruz's opponent, Beto O'Rourke, as "overrated." "You know what I am? I'm a nationalist." At the Cruz rally, Trump attacked Democrats as a "big risk to the American family" and accused them of "encouraging millions of illegal aliens to break our laws, violate our borders, and overwhelm our nation," the AP reports. He also attacked globalists, declaring himself to be a nationalist. GOP may have the edge in early voting. According to data analyzed by NBC News, talk of a "blue wave" may be overstated: In early voting, Republican-affiliated voters have outnumbered Democrats in Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, Tennessee, and Texas, while Democrats are ahead in Nevada. Trump "plans to distance himself from GOP losses." Insiders tell Politico that while Trump is currently describing the midterm vote as a vote on his presidency, he plans to break with recent precedent and distance himself from the results if there are serious GOP losses. The sources say Trump is likely to blame losses on House Speaker Paul Ryan and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell—as well as the media. One GOP insider says Trump has said of McConnell and Ryan: "These are their elections ... and if they screw it up, it's not my fault." Dems lower "blue wave" expectations. Trump may not have to distance himself from results: With congressional races tightening, Democrats have been trying to lower expectations of a "blue wave," the Hill reports. Democratic National Committee Chair Tom Perez says he believes this year's races will be close and control of the House could rest on just a few votes. (These are the most, and least, political states.)