We consider a variant of the multi-armed bandit model, which we call multi-armed bandit problem with known trend, where the gambler knows the shape of the reward function of each arm but not its distribution. This new problem is motivated by different online problems like active learning, music and interface recommendation applications, where when an arm is sampled by the model the received reward change according to a known trend. By adapting the standard multi-armed bandit algorithm UCB1 to take advantage of this setting, we propose the new algorithm named A-UCB that assumes a stochastic model. We provide upper bounds of the regret which compare favourably with the ones of UCB1. We also confirm that experimentally with different simulations
Our work is an adaptation of these classes of policies for MAB Problem with known trend reward function. Our work is most related to the study of dynamic versions of the MAB where either the set of arms or their expected reward may change over time. There are several applications, including active learning, music and interface recommendation, where the rewards are far from being stationary random sequences. A solution to cope with non-stationary is to drop the stochastic reward assumption and assume the reward sequences to be chosen by an adversary. Even with this adversarial formulation of the MAB problem, a randomized strategy like EXP3 provides the guarantee of a minimal regret @cite_0 @cite_14 .
@cite_0 @cite_14
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The multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem features the classical tradeoff between exploration and exploitation. The input specifies several stochastic arms which evolve with each pull, and the goal is to maximize the expected reward after a fixed budget of pulls. The celebrated work of , surveyed in [8], presumes a condition on the arms called the martingale assumption. In [9], A. obtained an LP-based 1 48-approximation for the problem with the martingale assumption removed. We improve the algorithm to a 4 27-approximation, with simpler analysis. Our algorithm also generalizes to the case of MAB superprocesses with (stochastic) multi-period actions. This generalization captures the framework introduced by Guha and Munagala in [11], and yields new results for their budgeted learning problems. Also, we obtain a (1 2 -- e)-approximation for the variant of MAB where preemption (playing an arm, switching to another arm, then coming back to the first arm) is not allowed. This contains the stochastic knapsack problem of Dean, Goemans, and Vondrak in [6] with correlated rewards, where we are given a knapsack of fixed size, and a set of jobs each with a joint distribution for its size and reward. The actual size and reward of a job can only be discovered in real-time as it is being scheduled, and the objective is to maximize expected reward before the knapsack size is exhausted. Our (1 2 -- e)-approximation improves the 1 16 and 1 8 approximations in [9] for correlated stochastic knapsack with cancellation and no cancellation, respectively, providing to our knowledge the first tight algorithm for these problems that matches the integrality gap of 2. We sample probabilities from an exponential-sized dynamic programming solution, whose existence is guaranteed by an LP projection argument. We hope this technique can also be applied to other dynamic programming problems which can be projected down onto a small LP. We consider a class of restless multi-armed bandit (RMAB) problems with unknown arm dynamics. At each time, a player chooses an arm out of @math arms to play, referred to as an active arm, and receives a random reward from a finite set of reward states. The reward state of the active arm transits according to an unknown Markovian dynamic. The reward state of passive arms (which are not chosen to play at time t) evolves according to an arbitrary unknown random process. The objective is an arm-selection policy that minimizes the regret, defined as the reward loss with respect to a player that always plays the most rewarding arm. This class of RMAB problems has been studied recently in the context of communication networks and financial investment applications. We develop a strategy that selects arms to be played in a consecutive manner in which the selection sequencing rules are adaptively updated controlled by the current sample reward means, referred to as Adaptive Sequencing Rules (ASR) algorithm. By designing judiciously the adaptive sequencing rules of the chosen arms, we show that ASR algorithm achieves a logarithmic regret order with time and a finite-sample bound on the regret is established. Although existing methods have shown a logarithmic regret order with time in this RMAB setting, the theoretical analysis presents significant improvement in the regret scaling with respect to the system parameters under ASR. Extensive simulation results support the theoretical study and demonstrate strong performance of the algorithm as compared to existing methods. The restless bandit problem is one of the most well-studied generalizations of the celebrated stochastic multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem in decision theory. In its ultimate generality, the restless bandit problem is known to be PSPACE-Hard to approximate to any nontrivial factor, and little progress has been made on this problem despite its significance in modeling activity allocation under uncertainty. In this article, we consider the Feedback MAB problem, where the reward obtained by playing each of n independent arms varies according to an underlying on off Markov process whose exact state is only revealed when the arm is played. The goal is to design a policy for playing the arms in order to maximize the infinite horizon time average expected reward. This problem is also an instance of a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP), and is widely studied in wireless scheduling and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) routing. Unlike the stochastic MAB problem, the Feedback MAB problem does not admit to greedy index-based optimal policies. We develop a novel duality-based algorithmic technique that yields a surprisingly simple and intuitive (2+e)-approximate greedy policy to this problem. We show that both in terms of approximation factor and computational efficiency, our policy is closely related to the Whittle index, which is widely used for its simplicity and efficiency of computation. Subsequently we define a multi-state generalization, that we term Monotone bandits, which remains subclass of the restless bandit problem. We show that our policy remains a 2-approximation in this setting, and further, our technique is robust enough to incorporate various side-constraints such as blocking plays, switching costs, and even models where determining the state of an arm is a separate operation from playing it. Our technique is also of independent interest for other restless bandit problems, and we provide an example in nonpreemptive machine replenishment. Interestingly, in this case, our policy provides a constant factor guarantee, whereas the Whittle index is provably polynomially worse. By presenting the first O(1) approximations for nontrivial instances of restless bandits as well as of POMDPs, our work initiates the study of approximation algorithms in both these contexts. In a multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem a gambler needs to choose at each round of play one of K arms, each characterized by an unknown reward distribution. Reward realizations are only observed when an arm is selected, and the gambler's objective is to maximize his cumulative expected earnings over some given horizon of play T. To do this, the gambler needs to acquire information about arms (exploration) while simultaneously optimizing immediate rewards (exploitation); the price paid due to this trade off is often referred to as the regret, and the main question is how small can this price be as a function of the horizon length T. This problem has been studied extensively when the reward distributions do not change over time; an assumption that supports a sharp characterization of the regret, yet is often violated in practical settings. In this paper, we focus on a MAB formulation which allows for a broad range of temporal uncertainties in the rewards, while still maintaining mathematical tractability. We fully characterize the (regret) complexity of this class of MAB problems by establishing a direct link between the extent of allowable reward "variation" and the minimal achievable regret. Our analysis draws some connections between two rather disparate strands of literature: the adversarial and the stochastic MAB frameworks. We study the stochastic multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem in the presence of side-observations across actions. In our model, choosing an action provides additional side observations for a subset of the remaining actions. One example of this model occurs in the problem of targeting users in online social networks where users respond to their friends's activity, thus providing information about each other's preferences. Our contributions are as follows: 1) We derive an asymptotic (with respect to time) lower bound (as a function of the network structure) on the regret (loss) of any uniformly good policy that achieves the maximum long term average reward. 2) We propose two policies - a randomized policy and a policy based on the well-known upper confidence bound (UCB) policies, both of which explore each action at a rate that is a function of its network position. We show that these policies achieve the asymptotic lower bound on the regret up to a multiplicative factor independent of network structure. The upper bound guarantees on the regret of these policies are better than those of existing policies. Finally, we use numerical examples on a real-world social network to demonstrate the significant benefits obtained by our policies against other existing policies. In the classic Bayesian restless multi-armed bandit (RMAB) problem, there are N arms, with rewards on all arms evolving at each time as Markov chains with known parameters. A player seeks to activate K ≥ 1 arms at each time in order to maximize the expected total reward obtained over multiple plays. RMAB is a challenging problem that is known to be PSPACE-hard in general. We consider in this work the even harder non-Bayesian RMAB, in which the parameters of the Markov chain are assumed to be unknown a priori. We develop an original approach to this problem that is applicable when the corresponding Bayesian problem has the structure that, depending on the known parameter values, the optimal solution is one of a prescribed finite set of policies. In such settings, we propose to learn the optimal policy for the non-Bayesian RMAB by employing a suitable meta-policy which treats each policy from this finite set as an arm in a different non-Bayesian multi-armed bandit problem for which a single-arm selection policy is optimal. We demonstrate this approach by developing a novel sensing policy for opportunistic spectrum access over unknown dynamic channels. We prove that our policy achieves near-logarithmic regret (the difference in expected reward compared to a model-aware genie), which leads to the same average reward that can be achieved by the optimal policy under a known model. This is the first such result in the literature for a non-Bayesian RMAB. We formulate the following combinatorial multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem: There are N random variables with unknown mean that are each instantiated in an i.i.d. fashion over time. At each time multiple random variables can be selected, subject to an arbitrary constraint on weights associated with the selected variables. All of the selected individual random variables are observed at that time, and a linearly weighted combination of these selected variables is yielded as the reward. The goal is to find a policy that minimizes regret, defined as the difference between the reward obtained by a genie that knows the mean of each random variable, and that obtained by the given policy. This formulation is broadly applicable and useful for stochastic online versions of many interesting tasks in networks that can be formulated as tractable combinatorial optimization problems with linear objective functions, such as maximum weighted matching, shortest path, and minimum spanning tree computations. Prior work on multi-armed bandits with multiple plays cannot be applied to this formulation because of the general nature of the constraint. On the other hand, the mapping of all feasible combinations to arms allows for the use of prior work on MAB with single-play, but results in regret, storage, and computation growing exponentially in the number of unknown variables. We present new efficient policies for this problem that are shown to achieve regret that grows logarithmically with time, and polynomially in the number of unknown variables. Furthermore, these policies only require storage that grows linearly in the number of unknown parameters. For problems where the underlying deterministic problem is tractable, these policies further require only polynomial computation. For computationally intractable problems, we also present results on a different notion of regret that is suitable when a polynomial-time approximation algorithm is used. Multi-armed bandit (MAB) is a class of online learning problems where a learning agent aims to maximize its expected cumulative reward while repeatedly selecting to pull arms with unknown reward distributions. In this paper, we consider a scenario in which the arms' reward distributions may change in a piecewise-stationary fashion at unknown time steps. By connecting change-detection techniques with classic UCB algorithms, we motivate and propose a learning algorithm called M-UCB, which can detect and adapt to changes, for the considered scenario. We also establish an @math regret bound for M-UCB, where @math is the number of time steps, @math is the number of arms, and @math is the number of stationary segments. and @math is the gap between the expected rewards of the optimal and best suboptimal arms. Comparison with the best available lower bound shows that M-UCB is nearly optimal in @math up to a logarithmic factor. We also compare M-UCB with state-of-the-art algorithms in a numerical experiment based on a public Yahoo! dataset. In this experiment, M-UCB achieves about @math regret reduction with respect to the best performing state-of-the-art algorithm. We consider the restless multi-armed bandit (RMAB) problem with unknown dynamics. At each time, a player chooses K out of N (N > K) arms to play. The state of each arm determines the reward when the arm is played and transits according to Markovian rules no matter the arm is engaged or passive. The Markovian dynamics of the arms are unknown to the player. The objective is to maximize the long-term expected reward by designing an optimal arm selection policy. The performance of a policy is measured by regret, defined as the reward loss with respect to the case where the player knows which K arms are the most rewarding and always plays these K best arms. We construct a policy, referred to as Restless Upper Confidence Bound (RUCB), that achieves a regret with logarithmic order of time when an arbitrary nontrivial bound on certain system parameters is known. When no knowledge about the system is available, we extend the RUCB policy to achieve a regret arbitrarily close to the logarithmic order. In both cases, the system achieves the maximum average reward offered by the K best arms. Potential applications of these results include cognitive radio networks, opportunistic communications in unknown fading environments, and financial investment. Multi-armed bandit problems are considered as a paradigm of the trade-off between exploring the environment to find profitable actions and exploiting what is already known. In the stationary case, the distributions of the rewards do not change in time, Upper-Confidence Bound (UCB) policies have been shown to be rate optimal. A challenging variant of the MABP is the non-stationary bandit problem where the gambler must decide which arm to play while facing the possibility of a changing environment. In this paper, we consider the situation where the distributions of rewards remain constant over epochs and change at unknown time instants. We analyze two algorithms: the discounted UCB and the sliding-window UCB. We establish for these two algorithms an upper-bound for the expected regret by upper-bounding the expectation of the number of times a suboptimal arm is played. For that purpose, we derive a Hoeffding type inequality for self normalized deviations with a random number of summands. We establish a lower-bound for the regret in presence of abrupt changes in the arms reward distributions. We show that the discounted UCB and the sliding-window UCB both match the lower-bound up to a logarithmic factor. We consider the problem of distributed online learning with multiple players in multiarmed bandit (MAB) models. Each player can pick among multiple arms. When a player picks an arm, it gets a reward. We consider both independent identically distributed (i.i.d.) reward model and Markovian reward model. In the i.i.d. model, each arm is modeled as an i.i.d. process with an unknown distribution with an unknown mean. In the Markovian model, each arm is modeled as a finite, irreducible, aperiodic and reversible Markov chain with an unknown probability transition matrix and stationary distribution. The arms give different rewards to different players. If two players pick the same arm, there is a collision, and neither of them get any reward. There is no dedicated control channel for coordination or communication among the players. Any other communication between the users is costly and will add to the regret. We propose an online index-based distributed learning policy called dUCB4 algorithm that trades off exploration versus exploitation in the right way, and achieves expected regret that grows at most as near- O(log2T). The motivation comes from opportunistic spectrum access by multiple secondary users in cognitive radio networks wherein they must pick among various wireless channels that look different to different users. This is the first distributed learning algorithm for multiplayer MABs with heterogeneous players (that have player-dependent rewards) to the best of our knowledge. In this paper, we study the stochastic combinatorial multi-armed bandit (CMAB) framework that allows a general nonlinear reward function, whose expected value may not depend only on the means of the input random variables but possibly on the entire distributions of these variables. Our framework enables a much larger class of reward functions such as the @math function and nonlinear utility functions. Existing techniques relying on accurate estimations of the means of random variables, such as the upper confidence bound (UCB) technique, do not work directly on these functions. We propose a new algorithm called stochastically dominant confidence bound (SDCB), which estimates the distributions of underlying random variables and their stochastically dominant confidence bounds. We prove that SDCB can achieve @math distribution-dependent regret and @math distribution-independent regret, where @math is the time horizon. We apply our results to the @math -MAX problem and expected utility maximization problems. In particular, for @math -MAX, we provide the first polynomial-time approximation scheme (PTAS) for its offline problem, and give the first @math bound on the @math -approximation regret of its online problem, for any @math . In budget-limited multi-armed bandit (MAB) problems, the learner's actions are costly and constrained by a fixed budget. Consequently, an optimal exploitation policy may not be to pull the optimal arm repeatedly, as is the case in other variants of MAB, but rather to pull the sequence of different arms that maximises the agent's total reward within the budget. This difference from existing MABs means that new approaches to maximising the total reward are required. Given this, we develop two pulling policies, namely: (i) KUBE; and (ii) fractional KUBE. Whereas the former provides better performance up to 40 in our experimental settings, the latter is computationally less expensive. We also prove logarithmic upper bounds for the regret of both policies, and show that these bounds are asymptotically optimal (i.e. they only differ from the best possible regret by a constant factor). In this paper, we consider a class of restless multiarmed bandit processes (RMABs) that arises in dynamic multichannel access, user server scheduling, and optimal activation in multiagent systems. For this class of RMABs, we establish the indexability and obtain Whittle index in closed form for both discounted and average reward criteria. These results lead to a direct implementation of Whittle index policy with remarkably low complexity. When arms are stochastically identical, we show that Whittle index policy is optimal under certain conditions. Furthermore, it has a semiuniversal structure that obviates the need to know the Markov transition probabilities. The optimality and the semiuniversal structure result from the equivalence between Whittle index policy and the myopic policy established in this work. For nonidentical arms, we develop efficient algorithms for computing a performance upper bound given by Lagrangian relaxation. The tightness of the upper bound and the near-optimal performance of Whittle index policy are illustrated with simulation examples. In this paper, we study the stochastic combinatorial multi-armed bandit (CMAB) framework that allows a general nonlinear reward function, whose expected value may not depend only on the means of the input random variables but possibly on the entire distributions of these variables. Our framework enables a much larger class of reward functions such as the max() function and nonlinear utility functions. Existing techniques relying on accurate estimations of the means of random variables, such as the upper confidence bound (UCB) technique, do not work directly on these functions. We propose a new algorithm called stochastically dominant confidence bound (SDCB), which estimates the distributions of underlying random variables and their stochastically dominant confidence bounds. We prove that SDCB can achieve O(log T) distribution-dependent regret and O(√T) distribution-independent regret, where T is the time horizon. We apply our results to the K-MAX problem and expected utility maximization problems. In particular, for K-MAX, we provide the first polynomial-time approximation scheme (PTAS) for its offline problem, and give the first O(√T) bound on the (1 — e)-approximation regret of its online problem, for any e > 0. We define a general framework for a large class of combinatorial multi-armed bandit (CMAB) problems, where subsets of base arms with unknown distributions form super arms. In each round, a super arm is played and the base arms contained in the super arm are played and their outcomes are observed. We further consider the extension in which more base arms could be probabilistically triggered based on the outcomes of already triggered arms. The reward of the super arm depends on the outcomes of all played arms, and it only needs to satisfy two mild assumptions, which allow a large class of nonlinear reward instances. We assume the availability of an offline (α β)-approximation oracle that takes the means of the outcome distributions of arms and outputs a super arm that with probability β generates an α fraction of the optimal expected reward. The objective of an online learning algorithm for CMAB is to minimize (α β)-approximation regret, which is the difference in total expected reward between the αβ fraction of expected reward when always playing the optimal super arm, and the expected reward of playing super arms according to the algorithm. We provide CUCB algorithm that achieves O(log n) distribution-dependent regret, where n is the number of rounds played, and we further provide distribution-independent bounds for a large class of reward functions. Our regret analysis is tight in that it matches the bound of UCB1 algorithm (up to a constant factor) for the classical MAB problem, and it significantly improves the regret bound in an earlier paper on combinatorial bandits with linear rewards. We apply our CMAB framework to two new applications, probabilistic maximum coverage (PMC) for online advertising and social in uence maximization for viral marketing, both having nonlinear reward structures. In particular, application to social in uence maximization requires our extension on probabilistically triggered arms. We consider a multi-armed bandit problem in a setting where each arm produces a noisy reward realization which depends on an observable random covariate. As opposed to the traditional static multi-armed bandit problem, this setting allows for dynamically changing rewards that better describe applications where side information is available. We adopt a nonparametric model where the expected rewards are smooth functions of the covariate and where the hardness of the problem is captured by a margin parameter. To maximize the expected cumulative reward, we introduce a policy called Adaptively Binned Successive Elimination (abse) that adaptively decomposes the global problem into suitably “localized” static bandit problems. This policy constructs an adaptive partition using a variant of the Successive Elimination (se) policy. Our results include sharper regret bounds for the se policy in a static bandit problem and minimax optimal regret bounds for the abse policy in the dynamic problem. We define a general framework for a large class of combinatorial multi-armed bandit (CMAB) problems, where simple arms with unknown distributions form super arms. In each round, a super arm is played and the outcomes of its related simple arms are observed, which helps the selection of super arms in future rounds. The reward of the super arm depends on the outcomes of played arms, and it only needs to satisfy two mild assumptions, which allow a large class of nonlinear reward instances. We assume the availability of an (α, β)-approximation oracle that takes the means of the distributions of arms and outputs a super arm that with probability β generates an β fraction of the optimal expected reward. The objective of a CMAB algorithm is to minimize (α, β)- approximation regret, which is the difference in total expected reward between the αbeta; fraction of expected reward when always playing the optimal super arm, and the expected reward of playing super arms according to the algorithm. We provide CUCB algorithm that achieves O(log n) regret, where n is the number of rounds played, and we further provide distribution-independent bounds for a large class of reward functions. Our regret analysis is tight in that it matches the bound for classical MAB problem up to a constant factor, and it significantly improves the regret bound in a recent paper on combinatorial bandits with linear rewards. We apply our CMAB framework to two new applications, probabilistic maximum coverage (PMC) for online advertising and social influence maximization for viral marketing, both having nonlinear reward structures. We consider stochastic multi-armed bandits where the expected reward is a unimodal function over partially ordered arms. This important class of problems has been recently investigated in (Cope 2009, Yu 2011). The set of arms is either discrete, in which case arms correspond to the vertices of a finite graph whose structure represents similarity in rewards, or continuous, in which case arms belong to a bounded interval. For discrete unimodal bandits, we derive asymptotic lower bounds for the regret achieved under any algorithm, and propose OSUB, an algorithm whose regret matches this lower bound. Our algorithm optimally exploits the unimodal structure of the problem, and surprisingly, its asymptotic regret does not depend on the number of arms. We also provide a regret upper bound for OSUB in non-stationary environments where the expected rewards smoothly evolve over time. The analytical results are supported by numerical experiments showing that OSUB performs significantly better than the state-of-the-art algorithms. For continuous sets of arms, we provide a brief discussion. We show that combining an appropriate discretization of the set of arms with the UCB algorithm yields an order-optimal regret, and in practice, outperforms recently proposed algorithms designed to exploit the unimodal structure. The fundamental problem of multiple secondary users contending for opportunistic spectrum access over multiple channels in cognitive radio networks has been formulated recently as a decentralized multi-armed bandit (D-MAB) problem. In a D-MAB problem there are @math users and @math arms (channels) that each offer i.i.d. stochastic rewards with unknown means so long as they are accessed without collision. The goal is to design a decentralized online learning policy that incurs minimal regret, defined as the difference between the total expected rewards accumulated by a model-aware genie, and that obtained by all users applying the policy. We make two contributions in this paper. First, we consider the setting where the users have a prioritized ranking, such that it is desired for the @math -th-ranked user to learn to access the arm offering the @math -th highest mean reward. For this problem, we present the first distributed policy that yields regret that is uniformly logarithmic over time without requiring any prior assumption about the mean rewards. Second, we consider the case when a fair access policy is required, i.e., it is desired for all users to experience the same mean reward. For this problem, we present a distributed policy that yields order-optimal regret scaling with respect to the number of users and arms, better than previously proposed policies in the literature. Both of our distributed policies make use of an innovative modification of the well known UCB1 policy for the classic multi-armed bandit problem that allows a single user to learn how to play the arm that yields the @math -th largest mean reward.