E-commerce web applications are almost ubiquitous in our day to day life, however as useful as they are, most of them have little to no adaptation to user needs, which in turn can cause both lower conversion rates as well as unsatisfied customers. We propose a machine learning system which learns the user behaviour from multiple previous sessions and predicts useful metrics for the current session. In turn, these metrics can be used by the applications to customize and better target the customer, which can mean anything from offering better offers of specific products, targeted notifications or placing smart ads. The data used for the learning algorithm is extracted from Google Analytics Enhanced E-commerce, which is enabled by most e-commerce websites and thus the system can be used by any such merchant. In order to learn the user patterns, only its behaviour features were used, which don't include names, gender or any other personal information that could identify the user. The learning model that was used is a double recurrent neural network which learns both intra-session and inter-session features. The model predicts for each session a probability score for each of the defined target classes.
Using Google Analytics data for Machine Learning purposes is a relatively new and rarely used method, perhaps because the analytics platform's original focus is on aggregated data. The User Explorer https: support.google.com analytics answer 6339208?hl=en report, which provides insights at the user level, is relatively new. In @cite_5 , they predict the amount of people visiting a city based on website traffic of various touristic websites. In @cite_1 , they try to identify the demography of the users on a website, studying the evolution of location as well as device used for some time frames. In @cite_10 , they analyzed the website traffic to sort the most visited pages for some online library. Then, based on the traffic analysis, they put more emphasis on the most visited ones, promoting them to the main page more often which resulted in a decrease of the bounce rate by a large margin. In @cite_0 , they analyze the performance of various e-commerce sites using computed statistics of the features offered by Google Analytics.
@cite_0 @cite_5 @cite_1 @cite_10
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The ability of 10 Google Analytics website traffic indicators from the Viennese DMO website to predict actual tourist arrivals to Vienna is investigated within the VAR model class. To prevent overparameterization, big data shrinkage methods are applied: Bayesian estimation of the VAR, reduction to a factor-augmented VAR, and application of Bayesian estimation to the FAVAR, the novel Bayesian FAVAR. Forecast accuracy results show that for shorter horizons (h=1, 2months ahead) a univariate benchmark performs best, while for longer horizons (h=3, 6, 12) forecast combination methods that include the predictive information of Google Analytics perform best, notably combined forecasts based on Bates–Granger weights, on forecast encompassing tests, and on a novel fusion of these two. The collection of huge amount of tracking data made possible by the widespread use of GPS devices, enabled the analysis of such data for several applications domains, ranging from traffic management to advertisement and social studies. However, the raw positioning data, as it is detected by GPS devices, lacks of semantic information since this data does not natively provide any additional contextual information like the places that people visited or the activities performed. Traditionally, this information is collected by hand filled questionnaire where a limited number of users are asked to annotate their tracks with the activities they have done. With the purpose of getting large amount of semantically rich trajectories, we propose an algorithm for automatically annotating raw trajectories with the activities performed by the users. To do this, we analyse the stops points trying to infer the Point Of Interest (POI) the user has visited. Based on the category of the POI and a probability measure based on the gravity law, we infer the activity performed. We experimented and evaluated the method in a real case study of car trajectories, manually annotated by users with their activities. Experimental results are encouraging and will drive our future works. In this paper, we combine ideas from machine learning (ML) and operations research and management science (OR MS) in developing a framework, along with specific methods, for using data to prescribe decisions in OR MS problems. In a departure from other work on data-driven optimization and reflecting our practical experience with the data available in applications of OR MS, we consider data consisting, not only of observations of quantities with direct effect on costs revenues, such as demand or returns, but predominantly of observations of associated auxiliary quantities. The main problem of interest is a conditional stochastic optimization problem, given imperfect observations, where the joint probability distributions that specify the problem are unknown. We demonstrate that our proposed solution methods are generally applicable to a wide range of decision problems. We prove that they are computationally tractable and asymptotically optimal under mild conditions even when data is not independent and identically distributed (iid) and even for censored observations. As an analogue to the coefficient of determination @math , we develop a metric @math termed the coefficient of prescriptiveness to measure the prescriptive content of data and the efficacy of a policy from an operations perspective. To demonstrate the power of our approach in a real-world setting we study an inventory management problem faced by the distribution arm of an international media conglomerate, which ships an average of 1 billion units per year. We leverage both internal data and public online data harvested from IMDb, Rotten Tomatoes, and Google to prescribe operational decisions that outperform baseline measures. Specifically, the data we collect, leveraged by our methods, accounts for an 88 improvement as measured by our coefficient of prescriptiveness. We consider MapReduce workloads that are produced by analytics applications. In contrast to ad hoc query workloads, analytics applications are comprised of fixed data flows that are run over newly arriving data sets or on different portions of an existing data set. Examples of such workloads include document analysis indexing, social media analytics, and ETL (Extract Transform Load). Motivated by these workloads, we propose a technique that predicts the runtime performance for a fixed set of queries running over varying input data sets. Our prediction technique splits each query into several segments where each segment’s performance is estimated using machine learning models. These per-segment estimates are plugged into a global analytical model to predict the overall query runtime. Our approach uses minimal statistics about the input data sets (e.g., tuple size, cardinality), which are complemented with historical information about prior query executions (e.g., execution time). We analyze the accuracy of predictions for several segment granularities on both standard analytical benchmarks such as TPC-DS [17], and on several real workloads. We obtain less than 25 prediction errors for 90 of predictions. Recently, many e-commerce websites have encouraged their users to rate shopping items and write review texts. This review information has been very useful for understanding user preferences and item properties, as well as enhancing the capability to make personalized recommendations of these websites. In this paper, we propose to model user preferences and item properties using convolutional neural networks (CNNs) with dual local and global attention, motivated by the superiority of CNNs to extract complex features. By using aggregated review texts from a user and aggregated review text for an item, our model can learn the unique features (embedding) of each user and each item. These features are then used to predict ratings. We train these user and item networks jointly which enable the interaction between users and items in a similar way as matrix factorization. The local attention provides us insight on a user's preferences or an item's properties. The global attention helps CNNs focus on the semantic meaning of the whole review text. Thus, the combined local and global attentions enable an interpretable and better-learned representation of users and items. We validate the proposed models by testing on popular review datasets in Yelp and Amazon and compare the results with matrix factorization (MF), the hidden factor and topical (HFT) model, and the recently proposed convolutional matrix factorization (ConvMF+). Our proposed CNNs with dual attention model outperforms HFT and ConvMF+ in terms of mean square errors (MSE). In addition, we compare the user item embeddings learned from these models for classification and recommendation. These results also confirm the superior quality of user item embeddings learned from our model. It is necessary to understand the content of articles and user preferences to make effective news recommendations. While ID-based methods, such as collaborative filtering and low-rank factorization, are well known for making recommendations, they are not suitable for news recommendations because candidate articles expire quickly and are replaced with new ones within short spans of time. Word-based methods, which are often used in information retrieval settings, are good candidates in terms of system performance but have issues such as their ability to cope with synonyms and orthographical variants and define "queries" from users' historical activities. This paper proposes an embedding-based method to use distributed representations in a three step end-to-end manner: (i) start with distributed representations of articles based on a variant of a denoising autoencoder, (ii) generate user representations by using a recurrent neural network (RNN) with browsing histories as input sequences, and (iii) match and list articles for users based on inner-product operations by taking system performance into consideration. The proposed method performed well in an experimental offline evaluation using past access data on Yahoo! JAPAN's homepage. We implemented it on our actual news distribution system based on these experimental results and compared its online performance with a method that was conventionally incorporated into the system. As a result, the click-through rate (CTR) improved by 23 and the total duration improved by 10 , compared with the conventionally incorporated method. Services that incorporated the method we propose are already open to all users and provide recommendations to over ten million individual users per day who make billions of accesses per month. The goal of this work is to automatically collect a large number of highly relevant natural images from Internet for given queries. A novel automatic image dataset construction framework is proposed by employing multiple query expansions. In specific, the given queries are first expanded by searching in the Google Books Ngrams Corpora to obtain a richer semantic descriptions, from which the visually non-salient and less relevant expansions are then filtered. After retrieving images from the Internet with filtered expansions, we further filter noisy images by clustering and progressively Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) based methods. To evaluate the performance of our proposed method for image dataset construction, we build an image dataset with 10 categories. We then run object detections on our image dataset with three other image datasets which were constructed by weak supervised, web supervised and full supervised learning, the experimental results indicated the effectiveness of our method is superior to weak supervised and web supervised state-of-the-art methods. In addition, we do a cross-dataset classification to evaluate the performance of our dataset with two publically available manual labelled dataset STL-10 and CIFAR-10. We consider the problem of using a large unlabeled sample to boost performance of a learning algorit,hrn when only a small set of labeled examples is available. In particular, we consider a problem setting motivated by the task of learning to classify web pages, in which the description of each example can be partitioned into two distinct views. For example, the description of a web page can be partitioned into the words occurring on that page, and the words occurring in hyperlinks t,hat point to that page. We assume that either view of the example would be sufficient for learning if we had enough labeled data, but our goal is to use both views together to allow inexpensive unlabeled data to augment, a much smaller set of labeled examples. Specifically, the presence of two distinct views of each example suggests strategies in which two learning algorithms are trained separately on each view, and then each algorithm’s predictions on new unlabeled examples are used to enlarge the training set of the other. Our goal in this paper is to provide a PAC-style analysis for this setting, and, more broadly, a PAC-style framework for the general problem of learning from both labeled and unlabeled data. We also provide empirical results on real web-page data indicating that this use of unlabeled examples can lead to significant improvement of hypotheses in practice. *This research was supported in part by the DARPA HPKB program under contract F30602-97-1-0215 and by NSF National Young investigator grant CCR-9357793. Permission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. TO copy otherwise, to republish, to post on servers or to redistribute to lists, requires prior specific permission and or a fee. COLT 98 Madison WI USA Copyright ACM 1998 l-58113-057--0 98 7... 5.00 92 Tom Mitchell School of Computer Science Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh, PA 15213-3891 mitchell+@cs.cmu.edu Abstract The authors develop and estimate a model of online buying using clickstream data from a Web site that sells cars. The model predicts online buying by linking the purchase decision to what visitors do and to what they are exposed to while at the site. To overcome the challenges of predicting Internet buying, the authors decompose the purchase process into the completion of sequential nominal user tasks and account for heterogeneity across visitors at the county level. Using a sequence of binary probits, the authors model the visitor’s decision of whether to complete each task for the first time, given that the visitor has completed the previous tasks at least once. The results indicate that visitors’ browsing experiences and navigational behavior predict task completion for all decision levels. The results also indicate that the number of repeat visits per se is not diagnostic of buying propensity and that a site’s offering of sophisticated decision aids does not guarantee increased conversion rat... Predicting user behaviour on a website is a difficult task, which requires the integration of multiple sources of information, such as geo-location, user profile or web surfing history. In this paper we tackle the problem of predicting the user intent, based on the queries that were used to access a certain webpage. We make no additional assumptions, such as domain detection, device used or location, and only use the word information embedded in the given query. In order to build competitive classifiers, we label a small fraction of the EDI query intent prediction dataset edi-challenge-dataset , which is used as ground truth. Then, using various rule-based approaches, we automatically label the rest of the dataset, train the classifiers and evaluate the quality of the automatic labeling on the ground truth dataset. We used both recurrent and convolutional networks as the models, while representing the words in the query with multiple embedding methods. We propose a new model to interpret the clickthrough logs of a web search engine. This model is based on explicit assumptions on the user behavior. In particular, we draw conclusions on a document relevance by observing the user behavior after he examined the document and not based on whether a user clicks or not a document url. This results in a model based on intrinsic relevance, as opposed to perceived relevance. We use the model to predict document relevance and then use this as feature for a "Learning to Rank" machine learning algorithm. Comparing the ranking functions obtained by training the algorithm with and without the new feature we observe surprisingly good results. This is particularly notable given that the baseline we use is the heavily optimized ranking function of a leading commercial search engine. A deeper analysis shows that the new feature is particularly helpful for non navigational queries and queries with a large abandonment rate or a large average number of queries per session. This is important because these types of query is considered to be the most difficult to solve. This paper describes a novel approach for gathering profile information about mobile phone users. The focus is on information that can be used to enhance targeting of advertisements. (The ads might be delivered into the mobile phones, or to other devices such as the user's IPTV.) Unlike previous approaches, we use a two-tiered approach for learning end-user habits and preferences. In this approach the first tier involves statistical learning from network observable data (in the current paper, primarily logs of cell towers visited), and the second tier involves explicit queries to the user (in the current paper, to ask, e.g., what kinds of activities the user does in a given region that he frequents). The user might be willing to answer occasional queries of this sort through offers of service discounts, or to be able to receive more relevant ads. The paper focuses on two key aspects of our approach, which correspond to how the two tiers are instantiated in the current version of the prototype system that we have developed at Bell Labs. The first concerns the statistical techniques used to determine information about regions visited, along with the frequency of visits, typical durations, and typical visit times. These techniques were developed based on a training set consisting of logs of 6 users with mobile devices over a period of several months. The techniques address issues that arise when a given small region is serviced by multiple cell towers (in which case oscillations between cell towers can be confused with movement between regions). The second key aspect concerns optimizing the order in which queries are presented to users, in a context where different query answers have different value for the advertising process. (The values of answers might be influenced by the mix of advertising campaigns from which ads are to be matched against users.) Optimization is NP-complete in a relatively general context. We develop a polynomial time algorithm which yields optimal sequences for the case where the family of queries to be asked satisfies a tree-based property. This is extended to create a heuristic polynomial time algorithm for the general case. We address the task of learning a semantic segmentation from weakly supervised data. Our aim is to devise a system that predicts an object label for each pixel by making use of only image level labels during training – the information whether a certain object is present or not in the image. Such coarse tagging of images is faster and easier to obtain as opposed to the tedious task of pixelwise labeling required in state of the art systems. We cast this task naturally as a multiple instance learning (MIL) problem. We use Semantic Texton Forest (STF) as the basic framework and extend it for the MIL setting. We make use of multitask learning (MTL) to regularize our solution. Here, an external task of geometric context estimation is used to improve on the task of semantic segmentation. We report experimental results on the MSRC21 and the very challenging VOC2007 datasets. On MSRC21 dataset we are able, by using 276 weakly labeled images, to achieve the performance of a supervised STF trained on pixelwise labeled training set of 56 images, which is a significant reduction in supervision needed. We propose a method for high-performance semantic image segmentation (or semantic pixel labelling) based on very deep residual networks, which achieves the state-of-the-art performance. A few design factors are carefully considered to this end. We make the following contributions. (i) First, we evaluate different variations of a fully convolutional residual network so as to find the best configuration, including the number of layers, the resolution of feature maps, and the size of field-of-view. Our experiments show that further enlarging the field-of-view and increasing the resolution of feature maps are typically beneficial, which however inevitably leads to a higher demand for GPU memories. To walk around the limitation, we propose a new method to simulate a high resolution network with a low resolution network, which can be applied during training and or testing. (ii) Second, we propose an online bootstrapping method for training. We demonstrate that online bootstrapping is critically important for achieving good accuracy. (iii) Third we apply the traditional dropout to some of the residual blocks, which further improves the performance. (iv) Finally, our method achieves the currently best mean intersection-over-union 78.3 on the PASCAL VOC 2012 dataset, as well as on the recent dataset Cityscapes. ∗This research was in part supported by the Data to Decisions Cooperative Research Centre. C. Shen’s participation was in part supported by an ARC Future Fellowship (FT120100969). C. Shen is the corresponding author. 1 ar X iv :1 60 4. 04 33 9v 1 [ cs .C V ] 1 5 A pr 2 01 6 The frequently changing user preferences and or item profiles have put essential importance on the dynamic modeling of users and items in personalized recommender systems. However, due to the insufficiency of per user item records when splitting the already sparse data across time dimension, previous methods have to restrict the drifting purchasing patterns to pre-assumed distributions, and were hardly able to model them rather directly with, for example, time series analysis. Integrating content information helps to alleviate the problem in practical systems, but the domain-dependent content knowledge is expensive to obtain due to the large amount of manual efforts. In this paper, we make use of the large volume of textual reviews for the automatic extraction of domain knowledge, namely, the explicit features aspects in a specific product domain. We thus degrade the product-level modeling of user preferences, which suffers from the lack of data, to the feature-level modeling, which not only grants us the ability to predict user preferences through direct time series analysis, but also allows us to know the essence under the surface of product-level changes in purchasing patterns. Besides, the expanded feature space also helps to make cold-start recommendations for users with few purchasing records. Technically, we develop the Fourier-assisted Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (FARIMA) process to tackle with the year-long seasonal period of purchasing data to achieve daily-aware preference predictions, and we leverage the conditional opportunity models for daily-aware personalized recommendation. Extensive experimental results on real-world cosmetic purchasing data from a major e-commerce website (JD.com) in China verified both the effectiveness and efficiency of our approach. Despite the availability of a huge amount of video data accompanied by descriptive texts, it is not always easy to exploit the information contained in natural language in order to automatically recognize video concepts. Towards this goal, in this paper we use textual cues as means of supervision, introducing two weakly supervised techniques that extend the Multiple Instance Learning (MIL) framework: the Fuzzy Sets Multiple Instance Learning (FSMIL) and the Probabilistic Labels Multiple Instance Learning (PLMIL). The former encodes the spatio-temporal imprecision of the linguistic descriptions with Fuzzy Sets, while the latter models different interpretations of each description's semantics with Probabilistic Labels, both formulated through a convex optimization algorithm. In addition, we provide a novel technique to extract weak labels in the presence of complex semantics, that consists of semantic similarity computations. We evaluate our methods on two distinct problems, namely face and action recognition, in the challenging and realistic setting of movies accompanied by their screenplays, contained in the COGNIMUSE database. We show that, on both tasks, our method considerably outperforms a state-of-the-art weakly supervised approach, as well as other baselines. Enterprise data analytics is a booming area in the data management industry. Many companies are racing to develop toolkits that closely integrate statistical and machine learning techniques with data management systems. Almost all such toolkits assume that the input to a learning algorithm is a single table. However, most relational datasets are not stored as single tables due to normalization. Thus, analysts often perform key-foreign key joins before learning on the join output. This strategy of learning after joins introduces redundancy avoided by normalization, which could lead to poorer end-to-end performance and maintenance overheads due to data duplication. In this work, we take a step towards enabling and optimizing learning over joins for a common class of machine learning techniques called generalized linear models that are solved using gradient descent algorithms in an RDBMS setting. We present alternative approaches to learn over a join that are easy to implement over existing RDBMSs. We introduce a new approach named factorized learning that pushes ML computations through joins and avoids redundancy in both I O and computations. We study the tradeoff space for all our approaches both analytically and empirically. Our results show that factorized learning is often substantially faster than the alternatives, but is not always the fastest, necessitating a cost-based approach. We also discuss extensions of all our approaches to multi-table joins as well as to Hive. Recent advances in Natural Language Processing and Machine Learning provide us with the tools to build predictive models that can be used to unveil patterns driving judicial decisions. This can be useful, for both lawyers and judges, as an assisting tool to rapidly identify cases and extract patterns which lead to certain decisions. This paper presents the first systematic study on predicting the outcome of cases tried by the European Court of Human Rights based solely on textual content. We formulate a binary classification task where the input of our classifiers is the textual content extracted from a case and the target output is the actual judgment as to whether there has been a violation of an article of the convention of human rights. Textual information is represented using contiguous word sequences, i.e., N-grams, and topics. Our models can predict the court’s decisions with a strong accuracy (79 on average). Our empirical analysis indicates that the formal facts of a case are the most important predictive factor. This is consistent with the theory of legal realism suggesting that judicial decision-making is significantly affected by the stimulus of the facts. We also observe that the topical content of a case is another important feature in this classification task and explore this relationship further by conducting a qualitative analysis. When users interact with the Web today, they leave sequential digital trails on a massive scale. Examples of such human trails include Web navigation, sequences of online restaurant reviews, or online music play lists. Understanding the factors that drive the production of these trails can be useful for e.g., improving underlying network structures, predicting user clicks or enhancing recommendations. In this work, we present a general approach called HypTrails for comparing a set of hypotheses about human trails on the Web, where hypotheses represent beliefs about transitions between states. Our approach utilizes Markov chain models with Bayesian inference. The main idea is to incorporate hypotheses as informative Dirichlet priors and to leverage the sensitivity of Bayes factors on the prior for comparing hypotheses with each other. For eliciting Dirichlet priors from hypotheses, we present an adaption of the so-called (trial) roulette method. We demonstrate the general mechanics and applicability of HypTrails by performing experiments with (i) synthetic trails for which we control the mechanisms that have produced them and (ii) empirical trails stemming from different domains including website navigation, business reviews and online music played. Our work expands the repertoire of methods available for studying human trails on the Web. Machine learning research has, to a great extent, ignored an important aspect of many real world applications: time. Existing concept learners predominantly operate on a static set of attributes; for example, classifying flowers described by leaf size, pet al colour and pet al count. However, many real datasets are not static; they cannot sensibly be represented as a fixed set of attributes. Rather, the examples are expressed as features that vary temporally, and it is the temporal variation itself that is used for classification. Consider a simple gesture recognition domain, in which the temporal features are the position of the hands, finger bends, and so on. Looking at the position of the hand at one point in time is not likely to lead to a successful classification; it is only by analysing changes in position that recognition is possible. This thesis presents a new technique for temporal classification. By extracting sub-events from the training instances and parameterising them to allow feature construction for a subsequent learning process, it is able to employ background knowledge and express learnt concepts in terms of the background knowledge. The novel results of the thesis are: a temporal learner capable of producing comprehensible and accurate classifiers for multivariate time series that can learn from a small number of instances and can integrate non-temporal features; a feature construction technique that parameterises sub-events of the training set and clusters them to construct features for a propositional learner; and a technique for post-processing classification rules produced by the learner to give a comprehensible description expressed in the same form as the original background knowledge. The thesis discusses the implementation of TClass, a temporal learner. Results show rules that are comprehensible in many cases and accuracy results close to or better than existing technique—over 98 per cent for sign language and 72 per cent for ECGs (equivalent to the accuracy of a human cardiologist). One further surprising result is that a small set of very primitive sub-events proves to be functional, avoiding the need for labour-intensive background knowledge if it is not available.