Statistical models of word-sense disambiguation are often based on a small number of contextual features or on a model that is assumed to characterize the interactions among a set of features. Model selection is presented as an alternative to these approaches, where a sequential search of possible models is conducted in order to find the model that best characterizes the interactions among features. This paper expands existing model selection methodology and presents the first comparative study of model selection search strategies and evaluation criteria when applied to the problem of building probabilistic classifiers for word-sense disambiguation.
Alternative probabilistic approaches have involved using a single contextual feature to perform disambiguation (e.g., @cite_17 , @cite_20 , and @cite_14 present techniques for identifying the optimal feature to use in disambiguation). Maximum Entropy models have been used to express the interactions among multiple feature variables (e.g., @cite_6 ), but within this framework no systematic study of interactions has been proposed. Decision tree induction has been applied to word-sense disambiguation (e.g. @cite_7 and @cite_1 ) but, while it is a type of model selection, the models are not parametric.
@cite_14 @cite_7 @cite_1 @cite_6 @cite_20 @cite_17
2952541071 2121127625 2098774185 1511986666 2127508398 2950075229 2100714283 2141099517 2745919252 2911793117 236111108 64088143 1963619740 2143336154 2169677553 2156336347 2134092622 2903794034 2142940228 1773803948
Most probabilistic classifiers used for word-sense disambiguation have either been based on only one contextual feature or have used a model that is simply assumed to characterize the interdependencies among multiple contextual features. In this paper, a different approach to formulating a probabilistic model is presented along with a case study of the performance of models produced in this manner for the disambiguation of the noun "interest". We describe a method for formulating probabilistic models that use multiple contextual features for word-sense disambiguation, without requiring untested assumptions regarding the form of the model. Using this approach, the joint distribution of all variables is described by only the most systematic variable interactions, thereby limiting the number of parameters to be estimated, supporting computational efficiency, and providing an understanding of the data. This article considers approaches which rerank the output of an existing probabilistic parser. The base parser produces a set of candidate parses for each input sentence, with associated probabilities that define an initial ranking of these parses. A second model then attempts to improve upon this initial ranking, using additional features of the tree as evidence. The strength of our approach is that it allows a tree to be represented as an arbitrary set of features, without concerns about how these features interact or overlap and without the need to define a derivation or a generative model which takes these features into account. We introduce a new method for the reranking task, based on the boosting approach to ranking problems described in (1998). We apply the boosting method to parsing the Wall Street Journal treebank. The method combined the log-likelihood under a baseline model (that of Collins [1999]) with evidence from an additional 500,000 features over parse trees that were not included in the original model. The new model achieved 89.75 F-measure, a 13 relative decrease in F measure error over the baseline model's score of 88.2 . The article also introduces a new algorithm for the boosting approach which takes advantage of the sparsity of the feature space in the parsing data. Experiments show significant efficiency gains for the new algorithm over the obvious implementation of the boosting approach. We argue that the method is an appealing alternative—in terms of both simplicity and efficiency—to work on feature selection methods within log-linear (maximum-entropy) models. Although the experiments in this article are on natural language parsing (NLP), the approach should be applicable to many other NLP problems which are naturally framed as ranking tasks, for example, speech recognition, machine translation, or natural language generation. Recent research has shown the benefit of framing problems of imitation learning as solutions to Markov Decision Problems. This approach reduces learning to the problem of recovering a utility function that makes the behavior induced by a near-optimal policy closely mimic demonstrated behavior. In this work, we develop a probabilistic approach based on the principle of maximum entropy. Our approach provides a well-defined, globally normalized distribution over decision sequences, while providing the same performance guarantees as existing methods. We develop our technique in the context of modeling real-world navigation and driving behaviors where collected data is inherently noisy and imperfect. Our probabilistic approach enables modeling of route preferences as well as a powerful new approach to inferring destinations and routes based on partial trajectories. Most tasks require a person or an automated system to reason -- to reach conclusions based on available information. The framework of probabilistic graphical models, presented in this book, provides a general approach for this task. The approach is model-based, allowing interpretable models to be constructed and then manipulated by reasoning algorithms. These models can also be learned automatically from data, allowing the approach to be used in cases where manually constructing a model is difficult or even impossible. Because uncertainty is an inescapable aspect of most real-world applications, the book focuses on probabilistic models, which make the uncertainty explicit and provide models that are more faithful to reality. Probabilistic Graphical Models discusses a variety of models, spanning Bayesian networks, undirected Markov networks, discrete and continuous models, and extensions to deal with dynamical systems and relational data. For each class of models, the text describes the three fundamental cornerstones: representation, inference, and learning, presenting both basic concepts and advanced techniques. Finally, the book considers the use of the proposed framework for causal reasoning and decision making under uncertainty. The main text in each chapter provides the detailed technical development of the key ideas. Most chapters also include boxes with additional material: skill boxes, which describe techniques; case study boxes, which discuss empirical cases related to the approach described in the text, including applications in computer vision, robotics, natural language understanding, and computational biology; and concept boxes, which present significant concepts drawn from the material in the chapter. Instructors (and readers) can group chapters in various combinations, from core topics to more technically advanced material, to suit their particular needs. We consider a task of scheduling with a common deadline on a single machine. Every player reports to a scheduler the length of his job and the scheduler needs to finish as many jobs as possible by the deadline. For this simple problem, there is a truthful mechanism that achieves maximum welfare in dominant strategies. The new aspect of our work is that in our setting players are uncertain about their own job lengths, and hence are incapable of providing truthful reports (in the strict sense of the word). For a probabilistic model for uncertainty we show that even with relatively little uncertainty, no mechanism can guarantee a constant fraction of the maximum welfare. To remedy this situation, we introduce a new measure of economic efficiency, based on a notion of a fair share of a player, and design mechanisms that are Ω(1)-fair. In addition to its intrinsic appeal, our notion of fairness implies good approximation of maximum welfare in several cases of interest. In our mechanisms the machine is sometimes left idle even though there are jobs that want to use it. We show that this unfavorable aspect is unavoidable, unless one gives up other favorable aspects (e.g., give up Ω(1)-fairness). We also consider a qualitative approach to uncertainty as an alternative to the probabilistic quantitative model. In the qualitative approach we break away from solution concepts such as dominant strategies (they are no longer well defined), and instead suggest an axiomatic approach, which amounts to listing desirable properties for mechanisms. We provide a mechanism that satisfies these properties. Maximum entropy models are considered by many to be one of the most promising avenues of language modeling research. Unfortunately, long training times make maximum entropy research difficult. We present a novel speedup technique: we change the form of the model to use classes. Our speedup works by creating two maximum entropy models, the first of which predicts the class of each word, and the second of which predicts the word itself. This factoring of the model leads to fewer non-zero indicator functions, and faster normalization, achieving speedups of up to a factor of 35 over one of the best previous techniques. It also results in typically slightly lower perplexities. The same trick can be used to speed training of other machine learning techniques, e.g. neural networks, applied to any problem with a large number of outputs, such as language modeling. Maximum entropy models are considered by many to be one of the most promising avenues of language modeling research. Unfortunately, long training times make maximum entropy research difficult. We present a speedup technique: we change the form of the model to use classes. Our speedup works by creating two maximum entropy models, the first of which predicts the class of each word, and the second of which predicts the word itself. This factoring of the model leads to fewer nonzero indicator functions, and faster normalization, achieving speedups of up to a factor of 35 over one of the best previous techniques. It also results in typically slightly lower perplexities. The same trick can be used to speed training of other machine learning techniques, e.g. neural networks, applied to any problem with a large number of outputs, such as language modeling. Models for many natural language tasks benefit from the flexibility to use overlapping, non-independent features. For example, the need for labeled data can be drastically reduced by taking advantage of domain knowledge in the form of word lists, part-of-speech tags, character n-grams, and capitalization patterns. While it is difficult to capture such inter-dependent features with a generative probabilistic model, conditionally-trained models, such as conditional maximum entropy models, handle them well. There has been significant work with such models for greedy sequence modeling in NLP (Ratnaparkhi, 1996; , 1998). We introduce a dynamic mechanism for the solution of analytically-tractable substructure in probabilistic programs, using conjugate priors and affine transformations to reduce variance in Monte Carlo estimators. For inference with Sequential Monte Carlo, this automatically yields improvements such as locally-optimal proposals and Rao-Blackwellization. The mechanism maintains a directed graph alongside the running program that evolves dynamically as operations are triggered upon it. Nodes of the graph represent random variables, edges the analytically-tractable relationships between them. Random variables remain in the graph for as long as possible, to be sampled only when they are used by the program in a way that cannot be resolved analytically. In the meantime, they are conditioned on as many observations as possible. We demonstrate the mechanism with a few pedagogical examples, as well as a linear-nonlinear state-space model with simulated data, and an epidemiological model with real data of a dengue outbreak in Micronesia. In all cases one or more variables are automatically marginalized out to significantly reduce variance in estimates of the marginal likelihood, in the final case facilitating a random-weight or pseudo-marginal-type importance sampler for parameter estimation. We have implemented the approach in Anglican and a new probabilistic programming language called Birch. Consider a Markov decision process (MDP) that admits a set of state-action features, which can linearly express the process's probabilistic transition model. We propose a parametric Q-learning algorithm that finds an approximate-optimal policy using a sample size proportional to the feature dimension @math and invariant with respect to the size of the state space. To further improve its sample efficiency, we exploit the monotonicity property and intrinsic noise structure of the Bellman operator, provided the existence of anchor state-actions that imply implicit non-negativity in the feature space. We augment the algorithm using techniques of variance reduction, monotonicity preservation, and confidence bounds. It is proved to find a policy which is @math -optimal from any initial state with high probability using @math sample transitions for arbitrarily large-scale MDP with a discount factor @math . A matching information-theoretical lower bound is proved, confirming the sample optimality of the proposed method with respect to all parameters (up to polylog factors). We present a novel probabilistic approach for fitting a statistical model to an image. A 3D Morphable Model (3DMM) of faces is interpreted as a generative (Top-Down) Bayesian model. Random Forests are used as noisy detectors (Bottom-Up) for the face and facial landmark positions. The Top-Down and Bottom-Up parts are then combined using a Data-Driven Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method (DDMCMC). As core of the integration, we use the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm which has two main advantages. First, the algorithm can handle unreliable detections and therefore does not need the detectors to take an early and possible wrong hard decision before fitting. Second, it is open for integration of various cues to guide the fitting process. Based on the proposed approach, we implemented a completely automatic, pose and illumination invariant face recognition application. We are able to train and test the building blocks of our application on different databases. The system is evaluated on the Multi-PIE database and reaches state of the art performance. Predicting human behavior from a small amount of training examples is a challenging machine learning problem. In this thesis, we introduce the principle of maximum causal entropy, a general technique for applying information theory to decision-theoretic, game-theoretic, and control settings where relevant information is sequentially revealed over time. This approach guarantees decision-theoretic performance by matching purposeful measures of behavior (Abbeel & Ng, 2004), and or enforces game-theoretic rationality constraints (Aumann, 1974), while otherwise being as uncertain as possible, which minimizes worst-case predictive log-loss (Grunwald & Dawid, 2003). We derive probabilistic models for decision, control, and multi-player game settings using this approach. We then develop corresponding algorithms for efficient inference that include relaxations of the Bellman equation (Bellman, 1957), and simple learning algorithms based on convex optimization. We apply the models and algorithms to a number of behavior prediction tasks. Specifically, we present empirical evaluations of the approach in the domains of vehicle route preference modeling using over 100,000 miles of collected taxi driving data, pedestrian motion modeling from weeks of indoor movement data, and robust prediction of game play in stochastic multi-player games. This paper deals with probabilistic and nondeterministic processes represented by a variant of labeled transition systems where any outgoing transition of a state s is augmented with probabilities for the possible successor states. Our main contributions are algorithms for computing this bisimulation equivalence classes as introduced by Larsen and Skou (1996, Inform. and Comput.99, 1?28), and the simulation preorder a la Segala and Lynch (1995, Nordic J. Comput.2, 250?273). The algorithm for deciding bisimilarity is based on a variant of the traditional partitioning technique and runs in time O(mn(logm+logn)) where m is the number of transitions and n the number of states. The main idea for computing the simulation preorder is the reduction to maximum flow problems in suitable networks. Using the method of Cheriyan, Hagerup, and Mehlhorn, (1990, Lecture Notes in Computer Science, Vol. 443, pp. 235?248, Springer-Verlag, Berlin) for computing the maximum flow, the algorithm runs in time O((mn6+m2n3) logn). Moreover, we show that the network-based technique is also applicable to compute the simulation-like relation of Jonsson and Larsen (1991, “Proc. LICS'91” pp. 266?277) in fully probabilistic systems (a variant of ordinary labeled transition systems where the nondeterminism is totally resolved by probabilistic choices). Recent progress towards unifying the probabilistic and preferential models semantics for non-monotonic reasoning has led to a remarkable observation: Any consistent system of default rules imposes an unambiguous and natural ordering on these rules which, to emphasize its simple and basic character, we term "Z-ordering." This ordering can be used with various levels of refinement, to prioritize conflicting arguments, to rank the degree of abnormality of states of the world, and to define plausible consequence relationships. This paper defines the Z-ordering, briefly mentions its semantical origins, and illustrates two simple entailment relationships induced by the ordering. Two extensions are then described, maximum-entropy and conditional entailment, which trade in computational simplicity for semantic refinements. In this paper we present a novel abstraction technique for Markov decision processes (MDPs), which are widely used for modelling systems that exhibit both probabilistic and nondeterministic behaviour. In the field of model checking, abstraction has proved an extremely successful tool to combat the state-space explosion problem. In the probabilistic setting, however, little practical progress has been made in this area. We propose an abstraction method for MDPs based on stochastic two-player games. The key idea behind this approach is to maintain a separation between nondeterminism present in the original MDP and nondeterminism introduced through abstraction, each type being represented by a different player in the game. Crucially, this allows us to obtain distinct lower and upper bounds for both the best and worst-case performance (minimum or maximum probabilities) of the MDP. We have implemented our techniques and illustrate their practical utility by applying them to a quantitative analysis of the Zeroconf dynamic network configuration protocol. Retrieving images in response to textual queries requires some knowledge of the semantics of the picture. Here, we show how we can do both automatic image annotation and retrieval (using one word queries) from images and videos using a multiple Bernoulli relevance model. The model assumes that a training set of images or videos along with keyword annotations is provided. Multiple keywords are provided for an image and the specific correspondence between a keyword and an image is not provided. Each image is partitioned into a set of rectangular regions and a real-valued feature vector is computed over these regions. The relevance model is a joint probability distribution of the word annotations and the image feature vectors and is computed using the training set. The word probabilities are estimated using a multiple Bernoulli model and the image feature probabilities using a non-parametric kernel density estimate. The model is then used to annotate images in a test set. We show experiments on both images from a standard Corel data set and a set of video key frames from NIST's video tree. Comparative experiments show that the model performs better than a model based on estimating word probabilities using the popular multinomial distribution. The results also show that our model significantly outperforms previously reported results on the task of image and video annotation. Many interesting domains in machine learning can be viewed as networks, with relationships (e.g., friendships) connecting items (e.g., individuals). The Active Exploration (AE) task is to identify all items in a network with a desired trait (i.e., positive labels) given only partial information about the network. The AE process iteratively queries for labels or network structure within a limited budget; thus, accurate predictions prior to making each query is critical to maximizing the number of positives gathered. However, the targeted AE query process produces partially observed networks that can create difficulties for predictive modeling. In particular, we demonstrate that these partial networks can exhibit extreme label correlation bias, which makes it difficult for conventional relational learning methods to accurately estimate relational parameters. To overcome this issue, we model the joint distribution of possible edges and labels to improve learning and inference. Our proposed method, Probabilistic Relational Expectation Maximization (PR-EM), is the first AE approach to accurately learn the complex dependencies between attributes, labels, and structure to improve predictions. PR-EM utilizes collective inference over the missing relationships in the partial network to jointly infer unknown item traits. Further, we develop a linear inference algorithm to facilitate efficient use of PR-EM in large networks. We test our approach on four real world networks, showing that AE with PR-EM gathers significantly more positive items compared to state-of-the-art methods. In this paper, we proposed a novel Probabilistic Attribute Tree-CNN (PAT-CNN) to explicitly deal with the large intra-class variations caused by identity-related attributes, e.g., age, race, and gender. Specifically, a novel PAT module with an associated PAT loss was proposed to learn features in a hierarchical tree structure organized according to attributes, where the final features are less affected by the attributes. Then, expression-related features are extracted from leaf nodes. Samples are probabilistically assigned to tree nodes at different levels such that expression-related features can be learned from all samples weighted by probabilities. We further proposed a semi-supervised strategy to learn the PAT-CNN from limited attribute-annotated samples to make the best use of available data. Experimental results on five facial expression datasets have demonstrated that the proposed PAT-CNN outperforms the baseline models by explicitly modeling attributes. More impressively, the PAT-CNN using a single model achieves the best performance for faces in the wild on the SFEW dataset, compared with the state-of-the-art methods using an ensemble of hundreds of CNNs. Algorithms for data-driven learning of domain-specific overcomplete dictionaries are developed to obtain maximum likelihood and maximum a posteriori dictionary estimates based on the use of Bayesian models with concave Schur-concave (CSC) negative log priors. Such priors are appropriate for obtaining sparse representations of environmental signals within an appropriately chosen (environmentally matched) dictionary. The elements of the dictionary can be interpreted as concepts, features, or words capable of succinct expression of events encountered in the environment (the source of the measured signals). This is a generalization of vector quantization in that one is interested in a description involving a few dictionary entries (the proverbial "25 words or less"), but not necessarily as succinct as one entry. To learn an environmentally adapted dictionary capable of concise expression of signals generated by the environment, we develop algorithms that iterate between a representative set of sparse representations found by variants of FOCUSS and an update of the dictionary using these sparse representations.Experiments were performed using synthetic data and natural images. For complete dictionaries, we demonstrate that our algorithms have improved performance over other independent component analysis (ICA) methods, measured in terms of signal-to-noise ratios of separated sources. In the overcomplete case, we show that the true underlying dictionary and sparse sources can be accurately recovered. In tests with natural images, learned overcomplete dictionaries are shown to have higher coding efficiency than complete dictionaries; that is, images encoded with an overcomplete dictionary have both higher compression (fewer bits per pixel) and higher accuracy (lower mean square error). This paper presents a statistical model which trains from a corpus annotated with Part Of Speech tags and assigns them to previously unseen text with state of the art accuracy The model can be classi ed as a Maximum Entropy model and simultaneously uses many contextual features to predict the POS tag Furthermore this paper demonstrates the use of specialized fea tures to model di cult tagging decisions discusses the corpus consistency problems discovered during the implementation of these features and proposes a training strategy that mitigates these problems