To manage and maintain large-scale cellular networks, operators need to know which sectors underperform at any given time. For this purpose, they use the so-called hot spot score, which is the result of a combination of multiple network measurements and reflects the instantaneous overall performance of individual sectors. While operators have a good understanding of the current performance of a network and its overall trend, forecasting the performance of each sector over time is a challenging task, as it is affected by both regular and non-regular events, triggered by human behavior and hardware failures. In this paper, we study the spatio-temporal patterns of the hot spot score and uncover its regularities. Based on our observations, we then explore the possibility to use recent measurements' history to predict future hot spots. To this end, we consider tree-based machine learning models, and study their performance as a function of time, amount of past data, and prediction horizon. Our results indicate that, compared to the best baseline, tree-based models can deliver up to 14 better forecasts for regular hot spots and 153 better forecasts for non-regular hot spots. The latter brings strong evidence that, for moderate horizons, forecasts can be made even for sectors exhibiting isolated, non-regular behavior. Overall, our work provides insight into the dynamics of cellular sectors and their predictability. It also paves the way for more proactive network operations with greater forecasting horizons.
After an exhaustive search, we have not been able to find any work that characterizes performance of hot spots in cellular networks using real data. The only exception could be the work by Nika et al. @cite_4 , where a data set with more than 700K users is analyzed to understand temporal characteristics of data hot spots. Predictability is assessed, but considering only hot spot repetitions at the exact time and location in the forthcoming week. However, we find that the focus of the work is not on performance, but on load, with hot spots being defined on the basis of relative daily cell traffic.
@cite_4
2086787845 2963008907 1481341908 2153757920 2123153450 2278115387 2281709771 1809720746 2952796263 2115580127 2129343844 2026472243 2139614748 2114207517 2135401131 2143557214 1988545169 2047663002 2117527647 2132559723
The unprecedented growth in mobile data usage is posing significant challenges to cellular operators. One key challenge is how to provide quality of service to subscribers when their residing cell is experiencing a significant amount of traffic, i.e. becoming a traffic hotspot. In this paper, we perform an empirical study on data hotspots in today's cellular networks using a 9-week cellular dataset with 734K+ users and 5327 cell sites. Our analysis examines in details static and dynamic characteristics, predictability, and causes of data hotspots, and their correlation with call hotspots. We believe the understanding of these key issues will lead to more efficient and responsive resource management and thus better QoS provision in cellular networks. To the best of our knowledge, our work is the first to characterize in detail traffic hotspots in today's cellular networks using real data. Mobile cellular networks are becoming increasingly complex to manage while classical deployment optimization techniques and current solutions (i.e., cell densification, acquiring more spec­trum, etc.) are cost-ineffective and thus seen as stopgaps. This calls for development of novel approaches that leverage recent advances in storage memory, context-awareness, edge cloud computing, and falls into framework of big data. However, the big data by itself is yet another complex phenomena to handle and comes with its notorious 4V: Velocity, voracity, volume, and variety. In this work, we address these issues in optimization of 5G wireless networks via the notion of proactive caching at the base stations. In particular, we investigate the gains of proactive caching in terms of backhaul of-floadings and request satisfactions, while tackling the large-amount of available data for content popularity estimation. In order to estimate the content popularity, we first collect users' mobile traffic data from a Turkish telecom operator from several base stations in hours of time interval. Then, an analysis is carried out locally on a big data platform and the gains of proactive caching at the base stations are investigated via numerical simulations. It turns out that several gains are possible depending on the level of available information and storage size. For instance, with 10 of content ratings and 15.4 Gbyte of storage size (87 of total catalog size), proactive caching achieves 100 of request satisfaction and offloads 98 of the backhaul when considering 16 base stations. In this work we consider the problem of an optimal geographic placement of content in wireless cellular networks modelled by Poisson point processes. Specifically, for the typical user requesting some particular content and whose popularity follows a given law (e.g. Zipf), we calculate the probability of finding the content cached in one of the base stations. Wireless coverage follows the usual signal-to-interference-and noise ratio (SINR) model, or some variants of it. We formulate and solve the problem of an optimal randomized content placement policy, to maximize the user's hit probability. The result dictates that it is not always optimal to follow the standard policy “cache the most popular content, everywhere”. In fact, our numerical results regarding three different coverage scenarios, show that the optimal policy significantly increases the chances of hit under high-coverage regime, i.e., when the probabilities of coverage by more than just one station are high enough. During crowded events, cellular networks face voice and data traffic volumes that are often orders of magnitude higher than what they face during routine days. Despite the use of portable base stations for temporarily increasing communication capacity and free Wi-Fi access points for offloading Internet traffic from cellular base stations, crowded events still present significant challenges for cellular network operators looking to reduce dropped call events and improve Internet speeds. For effective cellular network design, management, and optimization, it is crucial to understand how cellular network performance degrades during crowded events, what causes this degradation, and how practical mitigation schemes would perform in real-life crowded events. This paper makes a first step towards this end by characterizing the operational performance of a tier-1 cellular network in the United States during two high-profile crowded events in 2012. We illustrate how the changes in population distribution, user behavior, and application workload during crowded events result in significant voice and data performance degradation, including more than two orders of magnitude increase in connection failures. Our findings suggest two mechanisms that can improve performance without resorting to costly infrastructure changes: radio resource allocation tuning and opportunistic connection sharing. Using trace-driven simulations, we show that more aggressive release of radio resources via 1-2 seconds shorter RRC timeouts as compared to routine days helps to achieve better tradeoff between wasted radio resources, energy consumption, and delay during crowded events; and opportunistic connection sharing can reduce connection failures by 95 when employed by a small number of devices in each cell sector. Significant geospatial and temporal correlations, in terms of traffic volume and application access, exist in cellular network usage as shown in recent studies on cellular network measurement. Such geospatial and temporal correlation patterns provide local optimization opportunities to cellular network operators for handling the explosive growth in the traffic volume observed in recent years. To the best of our knowledge, in this paper, we provide the first fine-grained joint characterization of the geospatial and temporal dynamics of application usage in a 3G cellular data network. Our analysis is based on two simultaneously collected traces from the radio access network (containing location records) and the core network (containing traffic records) of a tier-1 cellular network in the United States. To better understand the application usage in our data, we first cluster cell locations based on their application distributions and then study the geospatial and temporal dynamics of application usage across different geographical regions. The results of our measurement study present cellular network operators with fine-grained insights that can be leveraged to tune network parameter settings for better network performance and user experience. While 5G wireless networks are expected to handle ever growing data avalanche, classical deployment optimization approaches such as hyper- dense deployment of base stations or having more bandwidth are cost-inefficient, therefore seen as stopgaps. In this regard, context-aware approaches which exploits human predictability, recent advances in storage, edge cloud computing and big data analytics are needed. In this article, we approach to this problem from a proactive caching perspective where gains of cache-enabled base stations in 5G wireless are studied. In particular, huge amount of real data from a telecom operator in Turkey is collected processed on a big data platform, and an analysis is carried out for content popularity estimation for caching, aiming to improve users' experience in terms of request satisfactions and offload the backhaul. Subsequently, with this mobile traffic data collected from many base stations within several hours of time interval and estimation of content popularity via machine learning tools, we investigate the gains of the proactive caching via numerical simulations. The results show that proactive caching fulfils 100 of user request satisfaction and offloads 98 of the backhaul, in a setting of 16 base station with 15.4 Gbyte of storage size (87 of the total catalog size) and 10 of content ratings. In this work we investigate optimal geographical caching in heterogeneous cellular networks where different types of base stations (BSs) have different cache capacities. Users request files from a content library according to a known probability distribution. The performance metric is the total hit probability, which is the probability that a user at an arbitrary location in the plane will find the content that it requires in one of the BSs that it is covered by. We consider the problem of optimally placing content in all BSs jointly. As this problem is not convex, we provide a heuristic scheme by finding the optimal placement policy for one type of base station conditioned on the placement in all other types. We demonstrate that these individual optimization problems are convex and we provide an analytical solution. As an illustration, we find the optimal placement policy of the small base stations (SBSs) depending on the placement policy of the macro base stations (MBSs). We show how the hit probability evolves as the deployment density of the SBSs varies. We show that the heuristic of placing the most popular content in the MBSs is almost optimal after deploying the SBSs with optimal placement policies. Also, for the SBSs no such heuristic can be used; the optimal placement is significantly better than storing the most popular content. Finally, we show that solving the individual problems to find the optimal placement policies for different types of BSs iteratively, namely repeatedly updating the placement policies, does not improve the performance. People spend most of their time at a few key locations, such as home and work. Being able to identify how the movements of people cluster around these "important places" is crucial for a range of technology and policy decisions in areas such as telecommunications and transportation infrastructure deployment. In this paper, we propose new techniques based on clustering and regression for analyzing anonymized cellular network data to identify generally important locations, and to discern semantically meaningful locations such as home and work. Starting with temporally sparse and spatially coarse location information, we propose a new algorithm to identify important locations. We test this algorithm on arbitrary cellphone users, including those with low call rates, and find that we are within 3 miles of ground truth for 88 of volunteer users. Further, after locating home and work, we achieve commute distance estimates that are within 1 mile of equivalent estimates derived from government census data. Finally, we perform carbon footprint analyses on hundreds of thousands of anonymous users as an example of how our data and algorithms can form an accurate and efficient underpinning for policy and infrastructure studies. There have been a bulk of analytic results about the performance of cellular networks where base stations are regularly located on a hexagonal or square lattice. This regular model cannot reflect the reality, and tends to overestimate the network performance. Moreover, tractable analysis can be performed only for a fixed location user (e.g., cell center or edge user). In this paper, we use the stochastic geometry approach, where base stations can be modeled as a homogeneous Poisson point process. We also consider the user density, and derive the user outage probability that an arbitrary user is under outage owing to low signal-to-interference-plus-noise ratio or high congestion by multiple users. Using the result, we calculate the density of success transmissions in the downlink cellular network. An interesting observation is that the success transmission density increases with the base station density, but the increasing rate diminishes. This means that the number of base stations installed should be more than @math -times to increase the network capacity by a factor of @math . Our results will provide a framework for performance analysis of the wireless infrastructure with a high density of access points, which will significantly reduce the burden of network-level simulations. With a proliferation of new mobile data services, the complexity of wireless mobile networks is rapidly growing. While large amount of operational monitoring data such as performance measurement statistics is available, it is a great challenge to correlate such data effectively for real time performance analysis. Meantime, the dynamics of mobile applications and environments introduce another dimension of complexity for us to track the evolving system status. In this paper, we analyze the spatial and temporal correlations of Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) to track and interpret the operational status of wide-area cellular systems. We first correlate large number of raw measurements into limited number of KPIs. Further we exploit spatial and temporal correlations of these KPIs for cellular network management. We use large volume of field data collected from real cellular systems in our analysis. Experimental results demonstrate that it is promising to build a real-time data management and support system by effectively correlating KPIs. Pervasive infrastructures, such as cell phone networks, enable to capture large amounts of human behavioral data but also provide information about the structure of cities and their dynamical properties. In this article, we focus on these last aspects by studying phone data recorded during 55 days in 31 Spanish cities. We first define an urban dilatation index which measures how the average distance between individuals evolves during the day, allowing us to highlight different types of city structure. We then focus on hotspots, the most crowded places in the city. We propose a parameter free method to detect them and to test the robustness of our results. The number of these hotspots scales sublinearly with the population size, a result in agreement with previous theoretical arguments and measures on employment datasets. We study the lifetime of these hotspots and show in particular that the hierarchy of permanent ones, which constitute the ‘heart' of the city, is very stable whatever the size of the city. The spatial structure of these hotspots is also of interest and allows us to distinguish different categories of cities, from monocentric and “segregated” where the spatial distribution is very dependent on land use, to polycentric where the spatial mixing between land uses is much more important. These results point towards the possibility of a new, quantitative classification of cities using high resolution spatio-temporal data. With the tremendous growth in wireless network deployment and increasing use of mobile devices, e.g., smartphones and tablets, improving energy efficiency in such devices, especially with communication driven workloads, is critical to providing a satisfactory user experience. Studies show that signal strength plays an important role on energy consumption of cellular data communications. While energy consumption can be minimized by accurately predicting signal strengths and reacting to it in real-time, the dynamic nature of wireless environments makes signal strengths highly unpredictable. In this paper, after analyzing in detail the signal strength variation and its impact on energy consumption, we propose to use crowdsourcing approach to optimize mobile devices’ energy efficiency by utilizing signal strength traces reported shared by other users devices in cellular networks. Via a comprehensive measurement study, we observe that signal strength traces collected from different devices are pseudo-identical, and they even exhibit similar threshold-based behaviors in the relationship between signal strength and device power consumption. Based on our observations, we propose a predictive scheduling algorithm that: (i) selects the right set of signal strength traces based on its location, (ii) applies a filter to smooth out signal strengths and hide abrupt changes, (iii) digitizes the signal strength to “good” and “bad” areas, and (iv) schedules transmissions based on power-throughput characteristics to optimize the transmission energy efficiency. To demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed algorithms, we prototype the crowdsourcing-based predicative scheduling algorithm on Android-based smartphones. Our experiment results from real-life driving tests demonstrate that, by leveraging others’ signal traces, mobile devices can save energy up to 35 percent compared to the conventional opportunistic scheduling, i.e., schedule transmissions only based on instantaneous channel conditions. Cellular radios consume more power and suffer reduced data rate when the signal is weak. According to our measurements, the communication energy per bit can be as much as 6x higher when the signal is weak than when it is strong. To realize energy savings, applications must preferentially communicate when the signal is strong, either by deferring non-urgent communication or by advancing anticipated communication to coincide with periods of strong signal. Allowing applications to perform such scheduling requires predicting signal strength, so that opportunities for energy-efficient communication can be anticipated. Furthermore, such prediction must be performed at little energy cost. In this paper, we make several contributions towards a practical system for energy-aware cellular data scheduling called Bartendr. First, we establish, via measurements, the relationship between signal strength and power consumption. Second, we show that location alone is not sufficient to predict signal strength and motivate the use of tracks to enable effective prediction. Finally, we develop energy-aware scheduling algorithms for different workloads - syncing and streaming - and evaluate these via simulation driven by traces obtained during actual drives, demonstrating energy savings of up to 60 . Our experiments have been performed on four cellular networks across two large metropolitan areas, one in India and the other in the U.S. In cellular network models, the base stations are usually assumed to form a lattice or a Poisson point process (PPP). In reality, however, they are deployed neither fully regularly nor completely randomly. Accordingly, in this paper, we consider the very general class of motion-invariant models and analyze the behavior of the outage probability (the probability that the signal-to-interference-plus-noise-ratio (SINR) is smaller than a threshold) as the threshold goes to zero. We show that, remarkably, the slope of the outage probability (in dB) as a function of the threshold (also in dB) is the same for essentially all motion-invariant point processes. The slope merely depends on the fading statistics. Using this result, we introduce the notion of the asymptotic deployment gain (ADG), which characterizes the horizontal gap between the success probabilities of the PPP and another point process in the high-reliability regime (where the success probability is near 1). To demonstrate the usefulness of the ADG for the characterization of the SINR distribution, we investigate the outage probabilities and the ADGs for different point processes and fading statistics by simulations. In this work, we study and quantify the effects of hotspots in wireless cellular networks. Hotspots are caused when the bandwidth resources available at some location in the network are not enough to sustain the needs of the users, which are then blocked or dropped. A deeper understanding of hotspots can help in conducting more realistic simulations and enable improved network design. We identify some causes for the formation of hotspots and based on them, categorize hotspots into three different types: a) capacity based, b) delay based, and c) preferential mobility based. We show how these types have different effects on network performance. We also consider the effects of hotspots from various perspectives such as the number of hotspots, the placement of hotspots, etc. We also develop a fluid flow model and an analytical model to study hotspots. The fluid flow model is surprisingly simple yet effective in helping us understand hotspots and their properties. We also describe an analytical model in which we consider a cell as an M M B B queue. We use these models to substantiate some of the observations from the simulations. Server side measurements from several Wi-Fi hot-spots deployed in a nationwide network over different types of venues from small coffee shops to large enterprises are used to highlight differences in traffic volumes and patterns. We develop a common modeling framework for the number of simultaneously present customers. Our approach has many novel elements: (a) We combine statistical clustering with Poisson regression from Generalized Linear Models to fit a non-stationary Poisson process to the arrival counts and demonstrate its remarkable accuracy; (b) We model the heavy tailed distribution of connection durations through fitting a Phase Type distribution to its logarithm so that not only the tail but also the overall distribution is well matched; (c) We obtain the distribution of the number of simultaneously present customers from an M t G ∞ queuing model using a novel regenerative argument that is transparent and avoids the customarily made assumption of the queue starting empty at an infinite past; (d) Most importantly, we validate our models by comparison of their predictions and confidence intervals against test data that is not used in fitting the models. In this work, we discover the daily location-driven routines that are contained in a massive real-life human dataset collected by mobile phones. Our goal is the discovery and analysis of human routines that characterize both individual and group behaviors in terms of location patterns. We develop an unsupervised methodology based on two differing probabilistic topic models and apply them to the daily life of 97 mobile phone users over a 16-month period to achieve these goals. Topic models are probabilistic generative models for documents that identify the latent structure that underlies a set of words. Routines dominating the entire group's activities, identified with a methodology based on the Latent Dirichlet Allocation topic model, include “going to work late”, “going home early”, “working nonstop” and “having no reception (phone off)” at different times over varying time-intervals. We also detect routines which are characteristic of users, with a methodology based on the Author-Topic model. With the routines discovered, and the two methods of characterizing days and users, we can then perform various tasks. We use the routines discovered to determine behavioral patterns of users and groups of users. For example, we can find individuals that display specific daily routines, such as “going to work early” or “turning off the mobile (or having no reception) in the evenings”. We are also able to characterize daily patterns by determining the topic structure of days in addition to determining whether certain routines occur dominantly on weekends or weekdays. Furthermore, the routines discovered can be used to rank users or find subgroups of users who display certain routines. We can also characterize users based on their entropy. We compare our method to one based on clustering using K-means. Finally, we analyze an individual's routines over time to determine regions with high variations, which may correspond to specific events. Small cell network is designed to provide mobile services to hot spots by deploying a large number of small access points (APs). As traditional network deployment requires costly AP location acquisition, cost-effective network deployment is necessary for small cell networks. We investigate this question by studying the network performance in terms of spatial outage and throughput of a completely random topology in comparison to that of a perfectly regular topology. Using a stochastic geometry model of user SINR in a random topology, our results show that the performance gap in terms of user SINR guarantee becomes narrow when the network density increases during the network densification. By a massive deployment, the loss is about 1 dB. Besides, it is at about 18 loss in user average throughput. These comparative results would provide helpful information to choose an appropriate deployment. In particular, as far as this relatively small performance loss can be compensated by other network control algorithms, the massive random deployment of a small cell network becomes attractive considering the cost reduction by the given deployment freedom. There is a need to increase the capacity of cellular networks to support the successful growth of mobile broadband usage. Network densification with HetNet (Heterogeneous Networks) is identified as a key method to meet future demands. In this paper one promising HetNet component is studied, the low power pico node. The 3GPP LTE (Long Term Evolution) pico features are described and the deployment aspects are investigated by means of simulations. It is found that with good deployment the capacity increase from low power nodes can be significantly improved. Capturing hot spot traffic has larger impact on performance than radio access features like range extension. Thus, knowing the hot spot cluster positions and ability to deploy the pico node near these positions is important. Also the hotspot positions relative the overlaying macro cells have impact. In this work we present a novel scheme for statistical-based anomaly detection in 3G cellular networks. The traffic data collected by a passive monitoring system are reduced to a set of per-mobile user counters, from which time-series of unidimensional feature distributions are derived. An example of feature is the number of TCP SYN packets seen in uplink for each mobile user in fixed-length time bins. We design a changedetection algorithm to identify deviations in each distribution time-series. Our algorithm is designed specifically to cope with the marked non-stationarities, daily weekly seasonality and longterm trend that characterize the global traffic in a real network. The proposed scheme was applied to the analysis of a large dataset from an operational 3G network. Here we present the algorithm and report on our practical experience with the analysis of real data, highlighting the key lessons learned in the perspective of the possible adoption of our anomaly detection tool on a production basis.