Many Web platforms rely on user collaboration to generate high-quality content: Wiki, Q&A communities, etc. Understanding and modeling the different collaborative behaviors is therefore critical. However, collaboration patterns are difficult to capture when the relationships between users are not directly observable, since they need to be inferred from the user actions. In this work, we propose a solution to this problem by adopting a systemic view of collaboration. Rather than modeling the users as independent actors in the system, we capture their coordinated actions with embedding methods which can, in turn, identify shared objectives and predict future user actions. To validate our approach, we perform a study on a dataset comprising more than 16M user actions, recorded on the online collaborative sandbox Reddit r place. Participants had access to a drawing canvas where they could change the color of one pixel at every fixed time interval. Users were not grouped in teams nor were given any specific goals, yet they organized themselves into a cohesive social fabric and collaborated to the creation of a multitude of artworks. Our contribution in this paper is multi-fold: i) we perform an in-depth analysis of the Reddit r place collaborative sandbox, extracting insights about its evolution over time; ii) we propose a predictive method that captures the latent structure of the emergent collaborative efforts; and iii) we show that our method provides an interpretable representation of the social structure.
The phenomenon of emergence has been studied in different domains, notably in the field of Complexity Science and in the context of agent based modeling. The term emergence has various definition across fields @cite_4 , alike complexity @cite_20 from which emergence has been suggested to arise from. Emergence generally refers to system-wide behaviors that cannot be explained by the sum of individual behaviors. Moreover, means of modeling emergence are still subject to debate. Counting interaction between agents is, however, a widely used method to infer complex behaviors in a system @cite_12 .
@cite_4 @cite_12 @cite_20
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Emergence is a concept widely used in the sciences, the arts, and engineering. Some effort has been made to formalize it, but it is used in various contexts with different meanings, and a unified theory of emergence is still distant. The ultimate goal of a theory of emergence should include using emergence to model, design, or predict the behavior of multiagent systems. The author proposes a formal definition of a basic type of emergence using a language-theoretic and grammar systems approach. It is shown which types of phenomena can be modeled in this sense and what the consequences are for other more complex phenomena. Understanding the behavior of complex systems is becoming a crucial issue as systems grow in size, and the interconnection and geographical distribution of their components diversifies. The interaction over time of many components often leads to emergent behavior, which can be harmful to the system. Despite this, very few practical approaches for the identification of emergent behavior exist, and many are unfeasible to implement. Approaches using interaction as a measure of emergence have the potential to alleviate this problem. In this paper, we analyse absolute and relative methods that use interaction as a measure of emergence. Absolute methods compute a degree of interaction that characterizes a system state as being emergent. Relative methods compare interaction graphs of the system state with interaction graphs of systems that have been shown previously to exhibit emergence. We present these approaches and discuss their advantages and limitations using theoretical and experimental analysis. The origin of large but rare cascades that are triggered by small initial shocks is a phenomenon that manifests itself as diversely as cultural fads, collective action, the diffusion of norms and innovations, and cascading failures in infrastructure and organizational networks. This paper presents a possible explanation of this phenomenon in terms of a sparse, random network of interacting agents whose decisions are determined by the actions of their neighbors according to a simple threshold rule. Two regimes are identified in which the network is susceptible to very large cascades—herein called global cascades—that occur very rarely. When cascade propagation is limited by the connectivity of the network, a power law distribution of cascade sizes is observed, analogous to the cluster size distribution in standard percolation theory and avalanches in self-organized criticality. But when the network is highly connected, cascade propagation is limited instead by the local stability of the nodes themselves, and the size distribution of cascades is bimodal, implying a more extreme kind of instability that is correspondingly harder to anticipate. In the first regime, where the distribution of network neighbors is highly skewed, it is found that the most connected nodes are far more likely than average nodes to trigger cascades, but not in the second regime. Finally, it is shown that heterogeneity plays an ambiguous role in determining a system's stability: increasingly heterogeneous thresholds make the system more vulnerable to global cascades; but an increasingly heterogeneous degree distribution makes it less vulnerable. Author(s): Aldous, DJ; Pittel, B | Abstract: A randomly evolving graph, with vertices immigrating at rate n and each possible edge appearing at rate 1 n, is studied. The detailed picture of emergence of giant components with O(n2 3) vertices is shown to be the same as in the Erdos-Renyi graph process with the number of vertices fixed at n at the start. A major difference is that now the transition occurs about a time t = π 2, rather than t = 1. The proof has three ingredients. The size of the largest component in the subcritical phase is bounded by comparison with a certain multitype branching process. With this bound at hand, the growth of the sum-of-squares and sum-of-cubes of component sizes is shown, via martingale methods, to follow closely a solution of the Smoluchowsky-type equations. The approximation allows us to apply results of Aldous [Brownian excursions, critical random graphs and the multiplicative coalescent, Ann Probab 25 (1997), 812-854] on emergence of giant components in the multiplicative coalescent, i.e., a nonuniform random graph process. © 2000 John Wiley a Sons, Inc. Random Struct. Alg., 17, 79-102, 2000. We study the emergence of trust behavior at both the individual and the population levels. At the individual level, in contrast to prior research that views trust as fixed traits, we model the emergence of trust or cooperation as a result of trial and error learning by a computer algorithm borrowed from the field of artificial intelligence (Watkins 1989). We show that trust can indeed arise as a result of trial and error learning. Emergence of trust at the population level is modeled by a grid-world consisting of cells of individual agents, a technique known as spatialization in evolutionary game theory. We show that, under a wide range of assumptions, trusting individuals tend to take over the population and trust becomes a systematic property. At both individual and population levels, therefore, we argue that trust behaviors will often emerge as a result of learning. The field of convention emergence studies how agents involved in repeated coordination games can reach consensus through only local interactions. The literature on this topic is vast and is motivated by human societies, mainly addressing coordination problems between human agents, such as who gets to redial after a dropped telephone call. In contrast, real-world engineering problems, such as coordination in wireless sensor networks, involve agents with limited resources and knowledge and thus pose certain restrictions on the complexity of the coordination mechanisms. Due to these restrictions, strategies proposed for human coordination may not be suitable for engineering applications and need to be further explored in the context of real-world application domains. In this article we take the role of designers of large decentralized multi-agent systems. We investigate the factors that speed up the convergence process of agents arranged in different static and dynamic topologies and under different interaction models, typical for engineering applications. We also study coordination problems both under partial observability and in the presence of faults (or noise). The main contributions of this article are that we propose an approach for emergent coordination, motivated by highly constrained devices, such as wireless nodes and swarm bots, in the absence of a central entity and perform extensive theoretical and empirical studies. Our approach is called Win-Stay Lose-probabilistic-Shift, generalizing two well-known strategies in game theory that have been applied in other domains. We demonstrate that our approach performs well in different settings under limited information and imposes minimal system requirements, due to its simplicity. Moreover, our technique outperforms state-of-the-art coordination mechanisms, guarantees full convergence in any topology and has the property that all convention states are absorbing. Infants are experts at playing, with an amazing ability to generate novel structured behaviors in unstructured environments that lack clear extrinsic reward signals. We seek to mathematically formalize these abilities using a neural network that implements curiosity-driven intrinsic motivation. Using a simple but ecologically naturalistic simulated environment in which an agent can move and interact with objects it sees, we propose a "world-model" network that learns to predict the dynamic consequences of the agent's actions. Simultaneously, we train a separate explicit "self-model" that allows the agent to track the error map of its own world-model, and then uses the self-model to adversarially challenge the developing world-model. We demonstrate that this policy causes the agent to explore novel and informative interactions with its environment, leading to the generation of a spectrum of complex behaviors, including ego-motion prediction, object attention, and object gathering. Moreover, the world-model that the agent learns supports improved performance on object dynamics prediction, detection, localization and recognition tasks. Taken together, our results are initial steps toward creating flexible autonomous agents that self-supervise in complex novel physical environments. Concepts used in the scientific study of complex systems have become so widespread that their use and abuse has led to ambiguity and confusion in their meaning. In this article, we use information theory to provide abstract and concise measures of complexity, emergence, self-organization, and homeostasis. The purpose is to clarify the meaning of these concepts with the aid of the proposed formal measures. In a simplified version of the measures (focusing on the information produced by a system), emergence becomes the opposite of self-organization, while complexity represents their balance. Homeostasis can be seen as a measure of the stability of the system. We use computational experiments on random Boolean networks and elementary cellular automata to illustrate our measures at multiple scales. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity, 2012 © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Active inference is emerging as a possible unifying theory ofperception and action in cognitive and computational neuro-science. On this theory, perception is a process of inferringthe causes of sensory data by minimising the error betweenactual sensations and those predicted by an innergenerative(probabilistic) model. Action on the other hand is drawn as aprocess that modifies the world such that the consequent sen-sory input meets expectations encoded in the same internalmodel. These two processes, inferring properties of the worldand inferring actions needed to meet expectations, close thesensory motor loop and suggest a deep symmetry betweenaction and perception. In this work we present a simpleagent-based model inspired by this new theory that offers in-sights on some of its central ideas. Previous implementationsof active inference have typically examined a “perception-oriented” view of this theory, assuming that agents are en-dowed with a detailed generative model of their surround-ing environment. In contrast, we present an “action-oriented”solution showing how adaptive behaviour can emerge evenwhen agents operate with a simple model which bears littleresemblance to their environment. We examine how variousparameters of this formulation allow phototaxis and presentan example of a different, “pathological” behaviour. Evolutionary dynamics has been traditionally studied in the context of homogeneous populations, mainly described by the Moran process [P. Moran, Random processes in genetics, Proceedings of the Cambridge Philosophical Society 54 (1) (1958) 60-71]. Recently, this approach has been generalized in [E. Lieberman, C. Hauert, M.A. Nowak, Evolutionary dynamics on graphs, Nature 433 (2005) 312-316] by arranging individuals on the nodes of a network (in general, directed). In this setting, the existence of directed arcs enables the simulation of extreme phenomena, where the fixation probability of a randomly placed mutant (i.e., the probability that the offspring of the mutant eventually spread over the whole population) is arbitrarily small or large. On the other hand, undirected networks (i.e., undirected graphs) seem to have a smoother behavior, and thus it is more challenging to find suppressors amplifiers of selection, that is, graphs with smaller greater fixation probability than the complete graph (i.e., the homogeneous population). In this paper we focus on undirected graphs. We present the first class of undirected graphs which act as suppressors of selection, by achieving a fixation probability that is at most one half of that of the complete graph, as the number of vertices increases. Moreover, we provide some generic upper and lower bounds for the fixation probability of general undirected graphs. As our main contribution, we introduce the natural alternative of the model proposed in [E. Lieberman, C. Hauert, M.A. Nowak, Evolutionary dynamics on graphs, Nature 433 (2005) 312-316]. In our new evolutionary model, all individuals interact simultaneously and the result is a compromise between aggressive and non-aggressive individuals. We prove that our new model of mutual influences admits a potential function, which guarantees the convergence of the system for any graph topology and any initial fitness vector of the individuals. Furthermore, we prove fast convergence to the stable state for the case of the complete graph, as well as we provide almost tight bounds on the limit fitness of the individuals. Apart from being important on its own, this new evolutionary model appears to be useful also in the abstract modeling of control mechanisms over invading populations in networks. We demonstrate this by introducing and analyzing two alternative control approaches, for which we bound the time needed to stabilize to the ''healthy'' state of the system. Recent studies have emphasized the merits of search processes that lack overarching objectives, instead promoting divergence by rewarding behavioral novelty. While this less objective search paradigm is more open-ended and divergent, it still differs significantly from nature's mechanism of divergence. Rather than measuring novelty explicitly nature is guided by a single, fundamental constraint: survive long enough to reproduce. Surprisingly, this simple constraint produces both complexity and diversity in a continual process unparalleled by any algorithm to date. Inspired by the relative simplicity of open-endedness in nature in comparison to recent non-objective algorithms, this paper investigates the extent to which interactions between two coevolving populations, both subject to their own constraint, or minimal criterion, can produce results that are both functional and diverse even without any behavior characterization or novelty archive. To test this new approach, a novel maze navigation domain is introduced wherein evolved agents must learn to navigate mazes whose structures are simultaneously coevolving and increasing in complexity. The result is a broad range of maze topologies and successful agent trajectories in a single run, thereby suggesting the viability of minimal criterion coevolution as a new approach to non-objective search and a step towards genuinely open-ended algorithms. To explain observations from nonmonotonic background theories, one often needs removal of some hypotheses as well as addition of other hypotheses. Moreover, some observations should not be explained, while some are to be explained. In order to formalize these situations, extended abduction was introduced by Inoue and Sakama (1995) to generalize traditional abduction in the sense that it can compute negative explanations by removing hypotheses and antidexplanations to unexplain negative observations. In this paper, we propose a computational mechanism for extended abduction. When a background theory is written in a normal logic program, we introduce its transaction program for computing extended abduction. A transaction program is a set of nonddeterministic production rules that declaratively specify addition and deletion of abductive hypotheses. Abductive explanations are then computed by the fixpoint of a transaction program using a bottomdup model generation procedure. The correctness of the proposed procedure is shown for the class of acyclic covered abductive logic programs. In the context of deductive databases, a transaction program provides a declarative specification of database update. Modelling is becoming a necessity in studying biological signalling pathways, because the combinatorial complexity of such systems rapidly overwhelms intuitive and qualitative forms of reasoning. Yet, this same combinatorial explosion makes the traditional modelling paradigm based on systems of differential equations impractical. In contrast, agentbased or concurrent languages, such as ? [1,2,3] or the closely related BioNetGen language [4,5,6,7,8,9,10], describe biological interactions in terms of rules, thereby avoiding the combinatorial explosion besetting differential equations. Rules are expressed in an intuitive graphical form that transparently represents biological knowledge. In this way, rules become a natural unit of model building, modification, and discussion. We illustrate this with a sizeable example obtained from refactoring two models of EGF receptor signalling that are based on differential equations [11,12]. An exciting aspect of the agent-based approach is that it naturally lends itself to the identification and analysis of the causal structures that deeply shape the dynamical, and perhaps even evolutionary, characteristics of complex distributed biological systems. In particular, one can adapt the notions of causality and conflict, familiar from concurrency theory, to ?, our representation language of choice. Using the EGF receptor model as an example, we show how causality enables the formalization of the colloquial concept of pathway and, perhaps more surprisingly, how conflict can be used to dissect the signalling dynamics to obtain a qualitative handle on the range of system behaviours. By taming the combinatorial explosion, and exposing the causal structures and key kinetic junctures in a model, agent- and rule-based representations hold promise for making modelling more powerful, more perspicuous, and of appeal to a wider audience. Infants are experts at playing, with an amazing ability to generate novel structured behaviors in unstructured environments that lack clear extrinsic reward signals. We seek to replicate some of these abilities with a neural network that implements curiosity-driven intrinsic motivation. Using a simple but ecologically naturalistic simulated environment in which the agent can move and interact with objects it sees, the agent learns a world model predicting the dynamic consequences of its actions. Simultaneously, the agent learns to take actions that adversarially challenge the developing world model, pushing the agent to explore novel and informative interactions with its environment. We demonstrate that this policy leads to the self-supervised emergence of a spectrum of complex behaviors, including ego motion prediction, object attention, and object gathering. Moreover, the world model that the agent learns supports improved performance on object dynamics prediction and localization tasks. Our results are a proof-of-principle that computational models of intrinsic motivation might account for key features of developmental visuomotor learning in infants. We study the problem of eliciting and aggregating probabilistic information from multiple agents. In order to successfully aggregate the predictions of agents, the principal needs to elicit some notion of confidence from agents, capturing how much experience or knowledge led to their predictions. To formalize this, we consider a principal who wishes to elicit predictions about a random variable from a group of Bayesian agents, each of whom have privately observed some independent samples of the random variable, and hopes to aggregate the predictions as if she had directly observed the samples of all agents. Leveraging techniques from Bayesian statistics, we represent confidence as the number of samples an agent has observed, which is quantified by a hyperparameter from a conjugate family of prior distributions. This then allows us to show that if the principal has access to a few samples, she can achieve her aggregation goal by eliciting predictions from agents using proper scoring rules. In particular, if she has access to one sample, she can successfully aggregate the agents' predictions if and only if every posterior predictive distribution corresponds to a unique value of the hyperparameter. Furthermore, this uniqueness holds for many common distributions of interest. When this uniqueness property does not hold, we construct a novel and intuitive mechanism where a principal with two samples can elicit and optimally aggregate the agents' predictions. Imitation is actively being studied as an effective means of learning in multi-agent environments. It allows an agent to learn how to act well (perhaps optimally) by passively observing the actions of cooperative teachers or other more experienced agents its environment. We propose a straightforward imitation mechanism called model extraction that can be integrated easily into standard model-based reinforcement learning algorithms. Roughly, by observing a mentor with similar capabilities, an agent can extract information about its own capabilities in unvisited parts of state space. The extracted information can accelerate learning dramatically. We illustrate the benefits of model extraction by integrating it with prioritized sweeping, and demonstrating improved performance and convergence through observation of single and multiple mentors. Though we make some stringent assumptions regarding observability, possible interactions and common abilities, we briefly comment on extensions of the model that relax these. A higher order recurrent neural network architecture learns to recognize and generate languages after being “trained” on categorized exemplars. Studying these networks from the perspective of dynamical systems yields two interesting discoveries: First, a longitudinal examination of the learning process illustrates a new form of mechanical inference: Induction by phase transition. A small weight adjustment causes a “bifurcation” in the limit behavior of the network. This phase transition corresponds to the onset of the network's capacity for generalizing to arbitrary-length strings. Second, a study of the automata resulting from the acquisition of previously published training sets indicates that while the architecture is not guaranteed to find a minimal finite automaton consistent with the given exemplars, which is an NP-Hard problem, the architecture does appear capable of generating non-regular languages by exploiting fractal and chaotic dynamics. I end the paper with a hypothesis relating linguistic generative capacity to the behavioral regimes of non-linear dynamical systems. Effective norms, emerging from sustained individual interactions over time, can complement societ al rules and significantly enhance performance of individual agents and agent societies. Researchers have used a model that supports the emergence of social norms via learning from interaction experiences where each interaction is viewed as a stage game. In this social learning model, which is distinct from an agent learning from repeated interactions against the same player, an agent learns a policy to play the game from repeated interactions with multiple learning agents. The key research question is to characterize when and how the entire population of homogeneous learners converge to a consistent norm when multiple action combinations yield the same optimal payoff. In this paper we study two extensions to the social learning model that significantly enhances its applicability. We first explore the effects of heterogeneous populations where different agents may be using different learning algorithms. We also investigate norm emergence when agent interactions are physically constrained. We consider agents located on a grid where an agent is more likely to interact with other agents situated closer to it than those that are situated afar. The key new results include the surprising acceleration in learning with limited interaction ranges. We also study the effects of pure-strategy players, i.e., nonlearners in the environment. We present a Bayesian framework for explaining how people reason about and predict the actions of an intentional agent, based on observing its behavior. Action-understanding is cast as a problem of inverting a probabilistic generative model, which assumes that agents tend to act rationally in order to achieve their goals given the constraints of their environment. Working in a simple sprite-world domain, we show how this model can be used to infer the goal of an agent and predict how the agent will act in novel situations or when environmental constraints change. The model provides a qualitative account of several kinds of inferences that preverbal infants have been shown to perform, and also fits quantitative predictions that adult observers make in a new experiment. This paper reports statistical analyses performed on simulated data from a stochastic multi-agent model of speculative behaviour in a financial market. The price dynamics resulting from this artificial market process exhibits the same type of scaling laws as do empirical data from stock markets and foreign exchange markets: (i) one observes scaling in the probability distribution of relative price changes with a Pareto exponent around 2.6, (ii) volatility shows significant long-range correlation with a self-similarity parameter H around 0.85. This happens although we assume that news about the intrinsic or fundamental value of the asset follows a white noise process and, hence, incorporation of news about fundamental factors is insufficient to explain either of the characteristics (i) or (ii). As a consequence, in our model, the main stylised facts of financial data originate from the working of the market itself and one need not resort to scaling in unobservable extraneous signals as an explanation of the source of scaling in financial prices. The emergence of power laws can be explained by the existence of a critical state which is repeatedly approached in the course of the system's development.