Uncovering factors underlying the network formation is a long-standing challenge for data mining and network analysis. In particular, the microscopic organizing principles of directed networks are less understood than those of undirected networks. This article proposes a hypothesis named potential theory, which assumes that every directed link corresponds to a decrease of a unit potential and subgraphs with definable potential values for all nodes are preferred. Combining the potential theory with the clustering and homophily mechanisms, it is deduced that the Bi-fan structure consisting of 4 nodes and 4 directed links is the most favored local structure in directed networks. Our hypothesis receives strongly positive supports from extensive experiments on 15 directed networks drawn from disparate fields, as indicated by the most accurate and robust performance of Bi-fan predictor within the link prediction framework. In summary, our main contribution is twofold: (i) We propose a new mechanism for the local organization of directed networks; (ii) We design the corresponding link prediction algorithm, which can not only testify our hypothesis, but also find out direct applications in missing link prediction and friendship recommendation.
Link prediction is one of the most fundamental problems in networked data mining that attempts to estimate the likelihood of the existence of a link between two nodes, according to observed links and the attributes of nodes @cite_21 @cite_41 . It has found applications in predicting missing links of biological networks and recommending social mates in online social networks. To evaluate the algorithmic performance, we usually divide the data into two parts and use the training set to predict the testing set. The algorithmic accuracy is quantified by counting the overlap of prediction and the testing set and or the ranks of links in the testing set among all non-observed links (i.e., node pairs not in the training set). Link prediction algorithm can be used in judging the driven mechanisms of network formation. The very nice performance of common-neighbor-based similarity indices strongly supports the validity of clustering mechanism @cite_31 @cite_37 . On several real friendship networks, @cite_25 showed that when combined with topological features, topical similarity achieves a link prediction accuracy of about 92
@cite_37 @cite_41 @cite_21 @cite_31 @cite_25
2007444087 2032553509 1996564243 2136116685 2097915776 2095054612 2107569009 2952696519 2964116313 2728059831 2604682274 2542727820 2125082260 188608978 2086643053 2051475803 2797520986 2788030877 2137962371 2109480754
Missing link prediction in networks is of both theoretical interest and practical significance in modern science. In this paper, we empirically investigate a simple framework of link prediction on the basis of node similarity. We compare nine well-known local similarity measures on six real networks. The results indicate that the simplest measure, namely Common Neighbours, has the best overall performance, and the Adamic-Adar index performs second best. A new similarity measure, motivated by the resource allocation process taking place on networks, is proposed and shown to have higher prediction accuracy than common neighbours. It is found that many links are assigned the same scores if only the information of the nearest neighbours is used. We therefore design another new measure exploiting information on the next nearest neighbours, which can remarkably enhance the prediction accuracy. Link prediction is a task in Social Network Analysis that consists of predicting connections that are most likely to appear considering previous observed links in a social network. The majority of works in this area only performs the task by exploring the state of the network at a specific moment to make the prediction of new links, without considering the behavior of links as time goes by. In this light, we investigate if temporal information can bring any performance gain to the link prediction task. A traditional approach for link prediction uses a chosen topological similarity metric on non-connected pairs of nodes of the network at present time to obtain a score that is going to be used by an unsupervised or a supervised method for link prediction. Our approach initially consists of building time series for each pair of non-connected nodes by computing their similarity scores at different past times. Then, we deploy a forecasting model on these time series and use their forecasts as the final scores of the pairs. Our preliminary results using two link prediction methods (unsupervised and supervised) on co-authorship networks revealed satisfactory results when temporal information was considered. Prediction is one of the most attractive aspects in data mining. Link prediction has recently attracted the attention of many researchers as an effective technique to be used in graph based models in general and in particular for social network analysis due to the recent popularity of the field. Link prediction helps to understand associations between nodes in social communities. Existing link prediction-related approaches described in the literature are limited to predict links that are anticipated to exist in the future. To the best of our knowledge, none of the previous works in this area has explored the prediction of links that could disappear in the future. We argue that the latter set of links are important to know about; they are at least equally important as and do complement the positive link prediction process in order to plan better for the future. In this paper, we propose a link prediction model which is capable of predicting both links that might exist and links that may disappear in the future. The model has been successfully applied in two different though very related domains, namely health care and gene expression networks. The former application concentrates on physicians and their interactions while the second application covers genes and their interactions. We have tested our model using different classifiers and the reported results are encouraging. Finally, we compare our approach with the internal links approach and we reached the conclusion that our approach performs very well in both bipartite and non-bipartite graphs. Link prediction is a fundamental problem in social network analysis. The key technique in unsupervised link prediction is to find an appropriate similarity measure between nodes of a network. A class of wildly used similarity measures are based on random walk on graph. The traditional random walk (TRW) considers the link structures by treating all nodes in a network equivalently, and ignores the centrality of nodes of a network. However, in many real networks, nodes of a network not only prefer to link to the similar node, but also prefer to link to the central nodes of the network. To address this issue, we use maximal entropy random walk (MERW) for link prediction, which incorporates the centrality of nodes of the network. First, we study certain important properties of MERW on graph @math by constructing an eigen-weighted graph G. We show that the transition matrix and stationary distribution of MERW on G are identical to the ones of TRW on G. Based on G, we further give the maximal entropy graph Laplacians, and show how to fast compute the hitting time and commute time of MERW. Second, we propose four new graph kernels and two similarity measures based on MERW for link prediction. Finally, to exhibit the power of MERW in link prediction, we compare 27 various link prediction methods over 3 synthetic and 8 real networks. The results show that our newly proposed MERW based methods outperform the state-of-the-art method on most datasets. Link prediction is a complex, inherently relational, task. Be it in the domain of scientific citations, social networks or hypertext links, the underlying data are extremely noisy and the characteristics useful for prediction are not readily available in a “flat” file format, but rather involve complex relationships among objects. In this paper, we propose the application of our methodology for Statistical Relational Learning to building link prediction models. We propose an integrated approach to building regression models from data stored in relational databases in which potential predictors are generated by structured search of the space of queries to the database, and then tested for inclusion in a logistic regression. We present experimental results for the task of predicting citations made in scientific literature using relational data taken from CiteSeer. This data includes the citation graph, authorship and publication venues of papers, as well as their word content. Link prediction, i.e., predicting links or interactions between objects in a network, is an important task in network analysis. Although the problem has attracted much attention recently, there are several challenges that have not been addressed so far. First, most existing studies focus only on link prediction in homogeneous networks, where all objects and links belong to the same type. However, in the real world, heterogeneous networks that consist of multi-typed objects and relationships are ubiquitous. Second, most current studies only concern the problem of whether a link will appear in the future but seldom pay attention to the problem of when it will happen. In this paper, we address both issues and study the problem of predicting when a certain relationship will happen in the scenario of heterogeneous networks. First, we extend the link prediction problem to the relationship prediction problem, by systematically defining both the target relation and the topological features, using a meta path-based approach. Then, we directly model the distribution of relationship building time with the use of the extracted topological features. The experiments on citation relationship prediction between authors on the DBLP network demonstrate the effectiveness of our methodology. Predicting the occurrence of links is a fundamental problem in networks. In the link prediction problem we are given a snapshot of a network and would like to infer which interactions among existing members are likely to occur in the near future or which existing interactions are we missing. Although this problem has been extensively studied, the challenge of how to effectively combine the information from the network structure with rich node and edge attribute data remains largely open. We develop an algorithm based on Supervised Random Walks that naturally combines the information from the network structure with node and edge level attributes. We achieve this by using these attributes to guide a random walk on the graph. We formulate a supervised learning task where the goal is to learn a function that assigns strengths to edges in the network such that a random walker is more likely to visit the nodes to which new links will be created in the future. We develop an efficient training algorithm to directly learn the edge strength estimation function. Our experiments on the Facebook social graph and large collaboration networks show that our approach outperforms state-of-the-art unsupervised approaches as well as approaches that are based on feature extraction. Predicting the occurrence of links is a fundamental problem in networks. In the link prediction problem we are given a snapshot of a network and would like to infer which interactions among existing members are likely to occur in the near future or which existing interactions are we missing. Although this problem has been extensively studied, the challenge of how to effectively combine the information from the network structure with rich node and edge attribute data remains largely open. We develop an algorithm based on Supervised Random Walks that naturally combines the information from the network structure with node and edge level attributes. We achieve this by using these attributes to guide a random walk on the graph. We formulate a supervised learning task where the goal is to learn a function that assigns strengths to edges in the network such that a random walker is more likely to visit the nodes to which new links will be created in the future. We develop an efficient training algorithm to directly learn the edge strength estimation function. Our experiments on the Facebook social graph and large collaboration networks show that our approach outperforms state-of-the-art unsupervised approaches as well as approaches that are based on feature extraction. Link prediction for knowledge graphs is the task of predicting missing relationships between entities. Previous work on link prediction has focused on shallow, fast models which can scale to large knowledge graphs. However, these models learn less expressive features than deep, multi-layer models - which potentially limits performance. In this work we introduce ConvE, a multi-layer convolutional network model for link prediction, and report state-of-the-art results for several established datasets. We also show that the model is highly parameter efficient, yielding the same performance as DistMult and R-GCN with 8x and 17x fewer parameters. Analysis of our model suggests that it is particularly effective at modelling nodes with high indegree - which are common in highly-connected, complex knowledge graphs such as Freebase and YAGO3. In addition, it has been noted that the WN18 and FB15k datasets suffer from test set leakage, due to inverse relations from the training set being present in the test set - however, the extent of this issue has so far not been quantified. We find this problem to be severe: a simple rule-based model can achieve state-of-the-art results on both WN18 and FB15k. To ensure that models are evaluated on datasets where simply exploiting inverse relations cannot yield competitive results, we investigate and validate several commonly used datasets - deriving robust variants where necessary. We then perform experiments on these robust datasets for our own and several previously proposed models, and find that ConvE achieves state-of-the-art Mean Reciprocal Rank across all datasets. Link prediction for knowledge graphs is the task of predicting missing relationships between entities. Previous work on link prediction has focused on shallow, fast models which can scale to large knowledge graphs. However, these models learn less expressive features than deep, multi-layer models -- which potentially limits performance. In this work, we introduce ConvE, a multi-layer convolutional network model for link prediction, and report state-of-the-art results for several established datasets. We also show that the model is highly parameter efficient, yielding the same performance as DistMult and R-GCN with 8x and 17x fewer parameters. Analysis of our model suggests that it is particularly effective at modelling nodes with high indegree -- which are common in highly-connected, complex knowledge graphs such as Freebase and YAGO3. In addition, it has been noted that the WN18 and FB15k datasets suffer from test set leakage, due to inverse relations from the training set being present in the test set -- however, the extent of this issue has so far not been quantified. We find this problem to be severe: a simple rule-based model can achieve state-of-the-art results on both WN18 and FB15k. To ensure that models are evaluated on datasets where simply exploiting inverse relations cannot yield competitive results, we investigate and validate several commonly used datasets -- deriving robust variants where necessary. We then perform experiments on these robust datasets for our own and several previously proposed models and find that ConvE achieves state-of-the-art Mean Reciprocal Rank across most datasets. Link prediction is a fundamental task in such areas as social network analysis, information retrieval, and bioinformatics. Usually link prediction methods use the link structures or node attributes as the sources of information. Recently, the relational topic model (RTM) and its variants have been proposed as hybrid methods that jointly model both sources of information and achieve very promising accuracy. However, the representations (features) learned by them are still not effective enough to represent the nodes (items). To address this problem, we generalize recent advances in deep learning from solely modeling i.i.d. sequences of attributes to jointly modeling graphs and non-i.i.d. sequences of attributes. Specifically, we follow the Bayesian deep learning framework and devise a hierarchical Bayesian model, called relational deep learning (RDL), to jointly model high-dimensional node attributes and link structures with layers of latent variables. Due to the multiple nonlinear transformations in RDL, standard variational inference is not applicable. We propose to utilize the product of Gaussians (PoG) structure in RDL to relate the inferences on different variables and derive a generalized variational inference algorithm for learning the variables and predicting the links. Experiments on three real-world datasets show that RDL works surprisingly well and significantly outperforms the state of the art. Online social networking sites have become increasingly popular over the last few years. As a result, new interdisciplinary research directions have emerged in which social network analysis methods are applied to networks containing hundreds millions of users. Unfortunately, links between individuals may be missing due to imperfect acquirement processes or because they are not yet reflected in the online network (i.e., friends in real world did not form a virtual connection.) Existing link prediction techniques lack the scalability required for full application on a continuously growing social network which may be adding everyday users with thousands of connections. The primary bottleneck in link prediction techniques is extracting structural features required for classifying links. In this paper we propose a set of simple, easy-to-compute structural features that can be analyzed to identify missing links. We show that a machine learning classifier trained using the proposed simple structural features can successfully identify missing links even when applied to a hard problem of classifying links between individuals who have at least one common friend. A new friends measure that we developed is shown to be a good predictor for missing links and an evaluation experiment was performed on five large social networks datasets: Face book, Flickr, You Tube, Academia and The Marker. Our methods can provide social network site operators with the capability of helping users to find known, offline contacts and to discover new friends online. They may also be used for exposing hidden links in an online social network. One of the core tasks in social network analysis is to predict the formation of links (i.e. various types of relationships) over time. Previous research has generally represented the social network in the form of a graph and has leveraged topological and semantic measures of similarity between two nodes to evaluate the probability of link formation. Here we introduce a novel local probabilistic graphical model method that can scale to large graphs to estimate the joint co-occurrence probability of two nodes. Such a probability measure captures information that is not captured by either topological measures or measures of semantic similarity, which are the dominant measures used for link prediction. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the co-occurrence probability feature by using it both in isolation and in combination with other topological and semantic features for predicting co-authorship collaborations on real datasets. Link prediction is an important task for analying social networks which also has applications in other domains like, information retrieval, bioinformatics and e-commerce. There exist a variety of techniques for link prediction, ranging from feature-based classification and kernel-based method to matrix factorization and probabilistic graphical models. These methods differ from each other with respect to model complexity, prediction performance, scalability, and generalization ability. In this article, we survey some representative link prediction methods by categorizing them by the type of the models. We largely consider three types of models: first, the traditional (non-Bayesian) models which extract a set of features to train a binary classification model. Second, the probabilistic approaches which model the joint-probability among the entities in a network by Bayesian graphical models. And, finally the linear algebraic approach which computes the similarity between the nodes in a network by rank-reduced similarity matrices. We discuss various existing link prediction models that fall in these broad categories and analyze their strength and weakness. We conclude the survey with a discussion on recent developments and future research direction. Link prediction has become an important and active research topic in recent years, which is prevalent in many real-world applications. Current research on link prediction focuses on predicting one single type of links, such as friendship links in social networks, or predicting multiple types of links independently. However, many real-world networks involve more than one type of links, and different types of links are not independent, but related with complex dependencies among them. In such networks, the prediction tasks for different types of links are also correlated and the links of different types should be predicted collectively. In this paper, we study the problem of collective prediction of multiple types of links in heterogeneous information networks. To address this problem, we introduce the linkage homophily principle and design a relatedness measure, called RM, between different types of objects to compute the existence probability of a link. We also extend conventional proximity measures to heterogeneous links. Furthermore, we propose an iterative framework for heterogeneous collective link prediction, called HCLP, to predict multiple types of links collectively by exploiting diverse and complex linkage information in heterogeneous information networks. Empirical studies on real-world tasks demonstrate that the proposed collective link prediction approach can effectively boost link prediction performances in heterogeneous information networks. In recent years, social networks have surged in popularity. One key aspect of social network research is identifying important missing information that is not explicitly represented in the network, or is not visible to all. To date, this line of research typically focused on finding the connections that are missing between nodes, a challenge typically termed as the link prediction problem. This article introduces the missing node identification problem, where missing members in the social network structure must be identified. In this problem, indications of missing nodes are assumed to exist. Given these indications and a partial network, we must assess which indications originate from the same missing node and determine the full network structure. Toward solving this problem, we present the missing node identification by spectral clustering algorithm (MISC), an approach based on a spectral clustering algorithm, combined with nodes’ pairwise affinity measures that were adopted from link prediction research. We evaluate the performance of our approach in different problem settings and scenarios, using real-life data from Facebook. The results show that our approach has beneficial results and can be effective in solving the missing node identification problem. In addition, this article also presents R-MISC, which uses a sparse matrix representation, efficient algorithms for calculating the nodes’ pairwise affinity, and a proprietary dimension reduction technique to enable scaling the MISC algorithm to large networks of more than 100,000 nodes. Last, we consider problem settings where some of the indications are unknown. Two algorithms are suggested for this problem: speculative MISC, based on MISC, and missing link completion, based on classical link prediction literature. We show that speculative MISC outperforms missing link completion. The temporal dynamics of a complex system such as a social network or a communication network can be studied by understanding the patterns of link appearance and disappearance over time. A critical task along this understanding is to predict the link state of the network at a future time given a collection of link states at earlier time points. In existing literature, this task is known as link prediction in dynamic networks. Solving this task is more difficult than its counterpart in static networks because an effective feature representation of node-pair instances for the case of dynamic network is hard to obtain. To overcome this problem, we propose a novel method for metric embedding of node-pair instances of a dynamic network. The proposed method models the metric embedding task as an optimal coding problem where the objective is to minimize the reconstruction error, and it solves this optimization task using a gradient descent method. We validate the effectiveness of the learned feature representation by utilizing it for link prediction in various real-life dynamic networks. Specifically, we show that our proposed link prediction model, which uses the extracted feature representation for the training instances, outperforms several existing methods that use well-known link prediction features. A common data mining task on networks is community detection, which seeks an unsupervised decomposition of a network into structural groups based on statistical regularities in the network's connectivity. Although many methods exist, the No Free Lunch theorem for community detection implies that each makes some kind of tradeoff, and no algorithm can be optimal on all inputs. Thus, different algorithms will over or underfit on different inputs, finding more, fewer, or just different communities than is optimal, and evaluation methods that use a metadata partition as a ground truth will produce misleading conclusions about general accuracy. Here, we present a broad evaluation of over and underfitting in community detection, comparing the behavior of 16 state-of-the-art community detection algorithms on a novel and structurally diverse corpus of 406 real-world networks. We find that (i) algorithms vary widely both in the number of communities they find and in their corresponding composition, given the same input, (ii) algorithms can be clustered into distinct high-level groups based on similarities of their outputs on real-world networks, and (iii) these differences induce wide variation in accuracy on link prediction and link description tasks. We introduce a new diagnostic for evaluating overfitting and underfitting in practice, and use it to roughly divide community detection methods into general and specialized learning algorithms. Across methods and inputs, Bayesian techniques based on the stochastic block model and a minimum description length approach to regularization represent the best general learning approach, but can be outperformed under specific circumstances. These results introduce both a theoretically principled approach to evaluate over and underfitting in models of network community structure and a realistic benchmark by which new methods may be evaluated and compared. In this paper we discuss a very simple approach of combining content and link information in graph structures for the purpose of community discovery, a fundamental task in network analysis. Our approach hinges on the basic intuition that many networks contain noise in the link structure and that content information can help strengthen the community signal. This enables ones to eliminate the impact of noise (false positives and false negatives), which is particularly prevalent in online social networks and Web-scale information networks. Specifically we introduce a measure of signal strength between two nodes in the network by fusing their link strength with content similarity. Link strength is estimated based on whether the link is likely (with high probability) to reside within a community. Content similarity is estimated through cosine similarity or Jaccard coefficient. We discuss a simple mechanism for fusing content and link similarity. We then present a biased edge sampling procedure which retains edges that are locally relevant for each graph node. The resulting backbone graph can be clustered using standard community discovery algorithms such as Metis and Markov clustering. Through extensive experiments on multiple real-world datasets (Flickr, Wikipedia and CiteSeer) with varying sizes and characteristics, we demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our methods over state-of-the-art learning and mining approaches several of which also attempt to combine link and content analysis for the purposes of community discovery. Specifically we always find a qualitative benefit when combining content with link analysis. Additionally our biased graph sampling approach realizes a quantitative benefit in that it is typically several orders of magnitude faster than competing approaches. The problem of predicting links or interactions between objects in a network, is an important task in network analysis. Along this line, link prediction between co-authors in a co-author network is a frequently studied problem. In most of these studies, authors are considered in a homogeneous network, .e., only one type of objects(author type) and one type of links (co-authorship) exist in the network. However, in a real bibliographic network, there are multiple types of objects ( .g., venues, topics, papers) and multiple types of links among these objects. In this paper, we study the problem of co-author relationship prediction in the heterogeneous bibliographic network, and a new methodology called, .e., meta path-based relationship prediction model, is proposed to solve this problem. First, meta path-based topological features are systematically extracted from the network. Then, a supervised model is used to learn the best weights associated with different topological features in deciding the co-author relationships. We present experiments on a real bibliographic network, the DBLP network, which show that metapath-based heterogeneous topological features can generate more accurate prediction results as compared to homogeneous topological features. In addition, the level of significance of each topological feature can be learned from the model, which is helpful in understanding the mechanism behind the relationship building.