Existing studies of how information diffuses across social networks have thus far concentrated on analysing and recovering the spread of deterministic innovations such as URLs, hashtags, and group membership. However investigating how mentions of real-world entities appear and spread has yet to be explored, largely due to the computationally intractable nature of performing large-scale entity extraction. In this paper we present, to the best of our knowledge, one of the first pieces of work to closely examine the diffusion of named entities on social media, using Reddit as our case study platform. We first investigate how named entities can be accurately recognised and extracted from discussion posts. We then use these extracted entities to study the patterns of entity cascades and how the probability of a user adopting an entity (i.e. mentioning it) is associated with exposures to the entity. We put these pieces together by presenting a parallelised diffusion model that can forecast the probability of entity adoption, finding that the influence of adoption between users can be characterised by their prior interactions -- as opposed to whether the users propagated entity-adoptions beforehand. Our findings have important implications for researchers studying influence and language, and for community analysts who wish to understand entity-level influence dynamics.
@cite_27 predicted adoption probabilities in social networks by controlling for potential confounding, unobservable variables -- proposing a modification of expectation-maximisation to induce a Naive bayes predictive model. The authors found that social influence alone is insufficient to recover the diffusion process, and thus external factors -- that are latent -- must be countered for within any predictive model -- this was in the context of predicting the adoption of social ties. The adoption of information within a social network and its propagation was studied by @cite_3 by considering the role of temporal dynamics. The authors found that the probability of diffusion between users ( on Chinese microblogging platform Sina Weibo) reduces as a function of time from the last interaction between the users, thereby suggesting that have a strong effect in diffusion. We build time into our adaptation of 's @cite_39 general threshold diffusion model -- by comparing static and discrete time versions of adoption probabilities.
@cite_27 @cite_3 @cite_39
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In a social network, adoption probability refers to the probability that a social entity will adopt a product, service, or opinion in the foreseeable future. Such probabilities are central to fundamental issues in social network analysis, including the influence maximization problem. In practice, adoption probabilities have significant implications for applications ranging from social network-based target marketing to political campaigns, yet predicting adoption probabilities has not received sufficient research attention. Building on relevant social network theories, we identify and operationalize key factors that affect adoption decisions: social influence, structural equivalence, entity similarity, and confounding factors. We then develop the locally weighted expectation-maximization method for Naive Bayesian learning to predict adoption probabilities on the basis of these factors. The principal challenge addressed in this study is how to predict adoption probabilities in the presence of confounding factors that are generally unobserved. Using data from two large-scale social networks, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. The empirical results also suggest that cascade methods primarily using social influence to predict adoption probabilities offer limited predictive power and that confounding factors are critical to adoption probability predictions. Many people share their activities with others through online communities. These shared activities have an impact on other users' activities. For example, users are likely to become interested in items that are adopted (e.g. liked, bought and shared) by their friends. In this paper, we propose a probabilistic model for discovering latent influence from sequences of item adoption events. An inhomogeneous Poisson process is used for modeling a sequence, in which adoption by a user triggers the subsequent adoption of the same item by other users. For modeling adoption of multiple items, we employ multiple inhomogeneous Poisson processes, which share parameters, such as influence for each user and relations between users. The proposed model can be used for finding influential users, discovering relations between users and predicting item popularity in the future. We present an efficient Bayesian inference procedure of the proposed model based on the stochastic EM algorithm. The effectiveness of the proposed model is demonstrated by using real data sets in a social bookmark sharing service. The emergence and wide-spread use of online social networks has led to a dramatic increase on the availability of social activity data. Importantly, this data can be exploited to investigate, at a microscopic level, some of the problems that have captured the attention of economists, marketers and sociologists for decades, such as, e.g., product adoption, usage and competition. In this paper, we propose a continuous-time probabilistic model, based on temporal point processes, for the adoption and frequency of use of competing products, where the frequency of use of one product can be modulated by those of others. This model allows us to efficiently simulate the adoption and recurrent usages of competing products, and generate traces in which we can easily recognize the effect of social influence, recency and competition. We then develop an inference method to efficiently fit the model parameters by solving a convex program. The problem decouples into a collection of smaller subproblems, thus scaling easily to networks with hundred of thousands of nodes. We validate our model over synthetic and real diffusion data gathered from Twitter, and show that the proposed model does not only provides a good fit to the data and more accurate predictions than alternatives but also provides interpretable model parameters, which allow us to gain insights into some of the factors driving product adoption and frequency of use. Models of networked diffusion that are motivated by analogy with the spread of infectious disease have been applied to a wide range of social and economic adoption processes, including those related to new products, ideas, norms and behaviors. However, it is unknown how accurately these models account for the empirical structure of diffusion over networks. Here we describe the diffusion patterns arising from seven online domains, ranging from communications platforms to networked games to microblogging services, each involving distinct types of content and modes of sharing. We find strikingly similar patterns across all domains. In particular, the vast majority of cascades are small, and are described by a handful of simple tree structures that terminate within one degree of an initial adopting "seed." In addition we find that structures other than these account for only a tiny fraction of total adoptions; that is, adoptions resulting from chains of referrals are extremely rare. Finally, even for the largest cascades that we observe, we find that the bulk of adoptions often takes place within one degree of a few dominant individuals. Together, these observations suggest new directions for modeling of online adoption processes. We study the detailed growth of a social networking site with full temporal information by examining the creation process of each friendship relation that can collectively lead to the macroscopic properties of the network. We first study the reciprocal behavior of users, and find that link requests are quickly responded to and that the distribution of reciprocation intervals decays in an exponential form. The degrees of inviters accepters are slightly negatively correlative with reciprocation time. In addition, the temporal feature of the online community shows that the distributions of intervals of user behaviors, such as sending or accepting link requests, follow a power law with a universal exponent, and peaks emerge for intervals of an integral day. We finally study the preferential selection and linking phenomena of the social networking site and find that, for the former, a linear preference holds for preferential sending and reception, and for the latter, a linear preference also holds for preferential acceptance, creation, and attachment. Based on the linearly preferential linking, we put forward an analyzable network model which can reproduce the degree distribution of the network. The research framework presented in the paper could provide a potential insight into how the micro-motives of users lead to the global structure of online social networks. For the study of information propagation, one fundamental problem is uncovering universal laws governing the dynamics of information propagation. This problem, from the microscopic perspective, is formulated as estimating the propagation probability that a piece of information propagates from one individual to another. Such a propagation probability generally depends on two major classes of factors: the intrinsic attractiveness of information and the interactions between individuals. Despite the fact that the temporal effect of attractiveness is widely studied, temporal laws underlying individual interactions remain unclear, causing inaccurate prediction of information propagation on evolving social networks. In this report, we empirically study the dynamics of information propagation, using the dataset from a population-scale social media website. We discover a temporal scaling in information propagation: the probability a message propagates between two individuals decays with the length of time latency since their latest interaction, obeying a power-law rule. Leveraging the scaling law, we further propose a temporal model to estimate future propagation probabilities between individuals, reducing the error rate of information propagation prediction from 6.7 to 2.6 and improving viral marketing with 9.7 incremental customers. Models for the processes by which ideas and influence propagate through a social network have been studied in a number of domains, including the diffusion of medical and technological innovations, the sudden and widespread adoption of various strategies in game-theoretic settings, and the effects of "word of mouth" in the promotion of new products. Recently, motivated by the design of viral marketing strategies, Domingos and Richardson posed a fundamental algorithmic problem for such social network processes: if we can try to convince a subset of individuals to adopt a new product or innovation, and the goal is to trigger a large cascade of further adoptions, which set of individuals should we target?We consider this problem in several of the most widely studied models in social network analysis. The optimization problem of selecting the most influential nodes is NP-hard here, and we provide the first provable approximation guarantees for efficient algorithms. Using an analysis framework based on submodular functions, we show that a natural greedy strategy obtains a solution that is provably within 63 of optimal for several classes of models; our framework suggests a general approach for reasoning about the performance guarantees of algorithms for these types of influence problems in social networks.We also provide computational experiments on large collaboration networks, showing that in addition to their provable guarantees, our approximation algorithms significantly out-perform node-selection heuristics based on the well-studied notions of degree centrality and distance centrality from the field of social networks. We develop a game-theoretic framework for the study of competition between firms who have budgets to "seed" the initial adoption of their products by consumers located in a social network. The payoffs to the firms are the eventual number of adoptions of their product through a competitive stochastic diffusion process in the network. This framework yields a rich class of competitive strategies, which depend in subtle ways on the stochastic dynamics of adoption, the relative budgets of the players, and the underlying structure of the social network. We identify a general property of the adoption dynamics --- namely, decreasing returns to local adoption --- for which the inefficiency of resource use at equilibrium (the Price of Anarchy) is uniformly bounded above, across all networks. We also show that if this property is violated the Price of Anarchy can be unbounded, thus yielding sharp threshold behavior for a broad class of dynamics. We also introduce a new notion, the Budget Multiplier, that measures the extent that imbalances in player budgets can be amplified at equilibrium. We again identify a general property of the adoption dynamics --- namely, proportional local adoption between competitors --- for which the (pure strategy) Budget Multiplier is uniformly bounded above, across all networks. We show that a violation of this property can lead to unbounded Budget Multiplier, again yielding sharp threshold behavior for a broad class of dynamics. Unlike traditional epidemic virus spreading, behavior diffusion in social networks is conducted by rational users, who would make strategic choices instead of being randomly infected with some probability. Specifically, individuals always try to maximize their utilities through rationally selecting specific behaviors (adopting a new product, or spreading a rumor, etc.). However, utility obtained by an individual, naturally contains uncertainty, and it may stem from two sources: users’ imperfect and incomplete knowledge about others, and the inherently stochastic property in human behavior. Thus, it is imperative to model and analyze the diffusion pattern under the resulting uncertainty in social networks, which, however, has not yet been deeply examined by the existing works. This paper deeply explores the pattern of gossip diffusion in social networks when uncertainty exists in users’ decision making. In detail, the innovative results provided in this paper are: first, inspired by random utility theory, we formulate the diffusion model based on mixed logit model that allows for user’s uncertainty in determining whether to adopt a specific strategy; second, the formal analysis framework characterizing the diffusion process is derived through the approximation method of mean field theory; finally, we explore the extensive applicability of our proposed analysis framework through modeling rumor diffusion in social networks as a coordination game. Our findings are, for various structural characteristics, small uncertainty can significantly speed up the diffusion of gossip; furthermore, social networks with scale-free property can facilitate the gossip diffusion in the easiest way, but, the range of uncertainty factor that can maximize gossip diffusion is the smallest. The obtained results perfectly comply with the philosophical saying about rumor diffusion in real social life: easy come, easy go. Given a social network G and a constant @math , the influence maximization problem asks for k nodes in G that (directly and indirectly) influence the largest number of nodes under a pre-defined diffusion model. This problem finds important applications in viral marketing, and has been extensively studied in the literature. Existing algorithms for influence maximization, however, either trade approximation guarantees for practical efficiency, or vice versa. In particular, among the algorithms that achieve constant factor approximations under the prominent independent cascade (IC) model or linear threshold (LT) model, none can handle a million-node graph without incurring prohibitive overheads. This paper presents TIM, an algorithm that aims to bridge the theory and practice in influence maximization. On the theory side, we show that TIM runs in O((k+ l) (n+m) log n e2) expected time and returns a (1-1 e-e)-approximate solution with at least 1 - n-l probability. The time complexity of TIM is near-optimal under the IC model, as it is only a log n factor larger than the Ω(m + n) lower-bound established in previous work (for fixed k, l, and e). Moreover, TIM supports the triggering model, which is a general diffusion model that includes both IC and LT as special cases. On the practice side, TIM incorporates novel heuristics that significantly improve its empirical efficiency without compromising its asymptotic performance. We experimentally evaluate TIM with the largest datasets ever tested in the literature, and show that it outperforms the state-of-the-art solutions (with approximation guarantees) by up to four orders of magnitude in terms of running time. In particular, when k = 50, e = 0.2, and l = 1, TIM requires less than one hour on a commodity machine to process a network with 41.6 million nodes and 1.4 billion edges. This demonstrates that influence maximization algorithms can be made practical while still offering strong theoretical guarantees. We extend variational autoencoders (VAEs) to collaborative filtering for implicit feedback. This non-linear probabilistic model enables us to go beyond the limited modeling capacity of linear factor models which still largely dominate collaborative filtering research.We introduce a generative model with multinomial likelihood and use Bayesian inference for parameter estimation. Despite widespread use in language modeling and economics, the multinomial likelihood receives less attention in the recommender systems literature. We introduce a different regularization parameter for the learning objective, which proves to be crucial for achieving competitive performance. Remarkably, there is an efficient way to tune the parameter using annealing. The resulting model and learning algorithm has information-theoretic connections to maximum entropy discrimination and the information bottleneck principle. Empirically, we show that the proposed approach significantly outperforms several state-of-the-art baselines, including two recently-proposed neural network approaches, on several real-world datasets. We also provide extended experiments comparing the multinomial likelihood with other commonly used likelihood functions in the latent factor collaborative filtering literature and show favorable results. Finally, we identify the pros and cons of employing a principled Bayesian inference approach and characterize settings where it provides the most significant improvements. There is considerable interest in developing predictive capabilities for social diffusion processes, for instance to permit early identification of emerging contentious situations, rapid detection of disease outbreaks, or accurate forecasting of the ultimate reach of potentially “viral” ideas or behaviors. This paper proposes a new approach to this predictive analytics problem, in which analysis of meso-scale network dynamics is leveraged to generate useful predictions for complex social phenomena. We begin by deriving a stochastic hybrid dynamical systems (S-HDS) model for diffusion processes taking place over social networks with realistic topologies; this modeling approach is inspired by recent work in biology demonstrating that S-HDS offer a useful mathematical formalism with which to represent complex, multi-scale biological network dynamics. We then perform formal stochastic reachability analysis with this S-HDS model and conclude that the outcomes of social diffusion processes may depend crucially upon the way the early dynamics of the process interacts with the underlying network’s community structure and core-periphery structure. This theoretical finding provides the foundations for developing a machine learning algorithm that enables accurate early warning analysis for social diffusion events. The utility of the warning algorithm, and the power of network-based predictive metrics, are demonstrated through an empirical investigation of the propagation of political “memes” over social media networks. Additionally, we illustrate the potential of the approach for security informatics applications through case studies involving early warning analysis of large-scale protests events and politically-motivated cyber attacks. We extend variational autoencoders (VAEs) to collaborative filtering for implicit feedback. This non-linear probabilistic model enables us to go beyond the limited modeling capacity of linear factor models which still largely dominate collaborative filtering research. We introduce a generative model with multinomial likelihood and use Bayesian inference to learn this powerful generative model. Despite widespread use in language modeling and economics, the multinomial likelihood receives less attention in the recommender systems literature. We introduce a different regularization parameter for the learning objective, which proves to be crucial for achieving competitive performance. Remarkably, there is an efficient way to tune the parameter using annealing. The resulting model and learning algorithm has information-theoretic connections to maximum entropy discrimination and the information bottleneck principle. Empirically, we show that the proposed approach significantly outperforms several state-of-the-art baselines, including two recently-proposed neural network approaches, on several real-world datasets. We also provide extended experiments comparing the multinomial likelihood with other commonly used likelihood functions in the latent factor collaborative filtering literature and show favorable results. Finally, we identify the pros and cons of employing a principled Bayesian inference approach and characterize settings where it provides the most significant improvements. The explosive growth of social networks in recent times has presented a powerful source of information to be utilized as an extra source for assisting in the social recommendation problems. The social recommendation methods that are based on probabilistic matrix factorization improved the recommendation accuracy and partly solved the cold-start and data sparsity problems. However, these methods only exploited the explicit social relations and almost completely ignored the implicit social relations. In this article, we firstly propose an algorithm to extract the implicit relation in the undirected graphs of social networks by exploiting the link prediction techniques. Furthermore, we propose a new probabilistic matrix factorization method to alleviate the data sparsity problem through incorporating explicit friendship and implicit friendship. We evaluate our proposed approach on two real datasets, Last.Fm and Douban. The experimental results show that our method performs much better than the state-of-the-art approaches, which indicates the importance of incorporating implicit social relations in the recommendation process to address the poor prediction accuracy. This paper extends Ajzen's (1991) theory of planned behavior (TPB) to explain and predict the process of e-commerce adoption by consumers. The process is captured through two online consumer behaviors: (1) getting information and (2) purchasing a product from a Web vendor. First, we simultaneously model the association between these two contingent online behaviors and their respective intentions by appealing to consumer behavior theories and the theory of implementation intentions, respectively. Second, following TPB, we derive for each behavior its intention, attitude, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control (PBC). Third, we elicit and test a comprehensive set of salient beliefs for each behavior. A longitudinal study with online consumers supports the proposed e-commerce adoption model, validating the predictive power of TPB and the proposed conceptualization of PBC as a higher-order factor formed by self-efficacy and controllability. Our findings stress the importance of trust and technology adoption variables (perceived usefulness and ease of use) as salient beliefs for predicting e-commerce adoption, justifying the integration of trust and technology adoption variables within the TPB framework. In addition, technological characteristics (download delay, Website navigability, and information protection), consumer skills, time and monetary resources, and product characteristics (product diagnosticity and product value) add to the explanatory and predictive power of our model. Implications for Information Systems, e-commerce, TPB, and the study of trust are discussed. Predicting the diffusion of information on social networks is a key problem for applications like Opinion Leader Detection, Buzz Detection or Viral Marketing. Many recent diffusion models are direct extensions of the Cascade and Threshold models, initially proposed for epidemiology and social studies. In such models, the diffusion process is based on the dynamics of interactions between neighbor nodes in the network (the social pressure), and largely ignores important dimensions as the content of the piece of information diffused. We propose here a new family of probabilistic models that aims at predicting how a content diffuses in a network by making use of additional dimensions: the content of the piece of information diffused, user's profile and willingness to diffuse. These models are illustrated and compared with other approaches on two blog datasets. The experimental results obtained on these datasets show that taking into account the content of the piece of information diffused is important to accurately model the diffusion process. Threshold models try to explain the consequences of social influence like the spread of fads and opinions. Along with models of epidemics, they constitute a major theoretical framework of social spreading processes. In threshold models on static networks, an individual changes her state if a certain fraction of her neighbors has done the same. When there are strong correlations in the temporal aspects of contact patterns, it is useful to represent the system as a temporal network. In such a system, not only contacts but also the time of the contacts are represented explicitly. In many cases, bursty temporal patterns slow down disease spreading. However, as we will see, this is not a universal truth for threshold models. In this work we propose an extension of Watts’s classic threshold model to temporal networks. We do this by assuming that an agent is influenced by contacts which lie a certain time into the past. I.e., the individuals are affected by contacts within a time window. In addition to thresholds in the fraction of contacts, we also investigate the number of contacts within the time window as a basis for influence. To elucidate the model’s behavior, we run the model on real and randomized empirical contact datasets. An edge-Markovian process with birth-rate p and death-rate q generates sequences of graphs (G0,G1,G2,…) with the same node set [n] such that Gt is obtained from Gt−1 as follows: if e ∉ E(Gt−1) then e ∈ E(Gt) with probability p, and if e ∈ E(Gt−1) then e ∉ E(Gt) with probability q. (PODC 2008) analyzed thoroughly information dissemination in such dynamic graphs, by establishing bounds on their flooding time--flooding is the basic mechanism in which every node becoming aware of an information at step t forwards this information to all its neighbors at all forthcoming steps t∦ > t. In this paper, we establish tight bounds on the complexity of flooding for all possible birth rates and death rates, completing the previous results by Moreover, we note that despite its many advantages in term of simplicity and robustness, flooding suffers from its high bandwidth consumption. Hence we also show that flooding in dynamic graphs can be implemented in a more parsimonious manner, so that to save bandwidth, yet preserving efficiency in term of simplicity and completion time. For a positive integer k, we say that the flooding protocol is k-active if each node forwards an information only during the k time steps immediately following the step at which the node receives that information for the first time. We define the reachability threshold for the flooding protocol as the smallest integer k such that, for any source s ∈ [n], the k-active flooding protocol from s completes (i.e., reaches all nodes), and we establish tight bounds for this parameter. We show that, for a large spectrum of parameters p and q, the reachability threshold is by several orders of magnitude smaller than the flooding time. In particular, we show that it is even constant whenever the ratio p (p + q) exceeds log n n. Moreover, we also show that being active for a number of steps equal to the reachability threshold (up to a multiplicative constant) allows the flooding protocol to complete in optimal time, i.e., in asymptotically the same number of steps as when being perpetually active. These results demonstrate that flooding can be implemented in a practical and efficient manner in dynamic graphs. The main ingredient in the proofs of our results is a reduction lemma enabling to overcome the time dependencies in edge-Markovian dynamic graphs. This paper intends to provide some insights of a scientific problem: how likely one's interests can be inferred from his her social connections -- friends, friends' friends, 3-degree friends, etc? Is "Birds of a Feather Flocks Together" a norm? We do not consider the friending activity on online social networking sites. Instead, we conduct this study by implementing a privacy-preserving large distribute social sensor system in a large global IT company to capture the multifaceted activities of 30,000+ people, including communications (e.g., emails, instant messaging, etc) and Web 2.0 activities (e.g., social bookmarking, file sharing, blogging, etc). These activities occupy the majority of employees' time in work, and thus, provide a high quality approximation to the real social connections of employees in the workplace context. In addition to such "informal networks", we investigated the "formal networks", such as their hierarchical structure, as well as the demographic profile data such as geography, job role, self-specified interests, etc. Because user ID matching across multiple sources on the Internet is very difficult, and most user activity logs have to be anonymized before they are processed, no prior studies could collect comparable multifaceted activity data of individuals. That makes this study unique. In this paper, we present a technique to predict the inference quality by utilizing (1) network analysis and network autocorrelation modeling of informal and formal networks, and (2) regression models to predict user interest inference quality from network characteristics. We verify our findings with experiments on both implicit user interests indicated by the content of communications or Web 2.0 activities, and explicit user interests specified in user profiles. We demonstrate that the inference quality prediction increases the inference quality of implicit interests by 42.8 , and inference quality of explicit interests by up to 101 . We introduce a general stochastic model for the spread of rumours, and derive mean-field equations that describe the dynamics of the model on complex social networks (in particular, those mediated by the Internet). We use analytical and numerical solutions of these equations to examine the threshold behaviour and dynamics of the model on several models of such networks: random graphs, uncorrelated scale-free networks and scale-free networks with assortative degree correlations. We show that in both homogeneous networks and random graphs the model exhibits a critical threshold in the rumour spreading rate below which a rumour cannot propagate in the system. In the case of scale-free networks, on the other hand, this threshold becomes vanishingly small in the limit of infinite system size. We find that the initial rate at which a rumour spreads is much higher in scale-free networks than in random graphs, and that the rate at which the spreading proceeds on scale-free networks is further increased when assortative degree correlations are introduced. The impact of degree correlations on the final fraction of nodes that ever hears a rumour, however, depends on the interplay between network topology and the rumour spreading rate. Our results show that scale-free social networks are prone to the spreading of rumours, just as they are to the spreading of infections. They are relevant to the spreading dynamics of chain emails, viral advertising and large-scale information dissemination algorithms on the Internet.