To minimize property loss and death count in terror attacks and other emergent scenarios, attention given to timely and effective evacuation cannot be enough. Due to limited evacuation resource, i.e., number of available exits, there exists interdependence among pedestrians such as cooperation, competition and herd effect. Thus human factors - more specifically, pedestrians' behavior in emergency evacuation - play a significant role in evacuation research. Effective evacuation can only be reached when route planning are considered in conjunction with psychological dynamics, which is often ignored. As another drawback, previous research assumes the environment including available exits as stationary. However, we note that during emergency, some exits which are not often utilized in normal times are opened, which potentially helps if pedestrians are aware of them. In this paper, we analyze the effect of pedestrians' behavior, i.e., herd effect and knowledge of changing environment with Cellular Automata (CA) simulation. Results of the simulation show the harmful effect of herd effect as well as highlight the importance of timely informing pedestrians of environmental change. Accordingly, we propose policy and procedural recommendations for emergency management of large, crowded structures. Our future work includes considering more human factors and applying our model to log data provided by videos in public venues, which can further show effectiveness of our model in real scenarios.
@cite_11 proposes a behavior-based cellular automaton (CA) model for pedestrian dynamics and show that for a given range of emergency degree, the enlarged emergency degree can shorten the evacuation time yet depresses cooperation enthusiasm. On the contrary, as dependence (familiarity) of pedestrians increases, the evacuation time and the fraction of cooperation increase.
@cite_11
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Pedestrian evacuation is one open question in a myriad of scientific disciplines and has attracted considerable attention during the past decades. Aim to issue, various research approaches, such as mathematical modeling and simulation, experimental studied and socio-psychology surveys, have been extensively employed. Different from previous frameworks, here a behavior-based cellular automaton model is proposed, which involves the environmental characteristics and neighbors' behaviors. Given the certain range of degree of emergency, it is shown that enhancing the degree of emergency will shorten evacuation time yet decrease cooperation enthusiasm. The larger the degree of familiarity is, the shorter the evacuation time will be. In variance, larger the dependence of pedestrians will prolong the evacuation time. Besides, the novel model also produces some interesting self-organization phenomena, such as the collective behavior at the beginning of the evacuation and arch-like blocking at the end of the evacuation. When our model is finally applied to the evacuation scenario where a room has two symmetrically located exits, the symmetry breaking effect takes place. Our model may shed new light to the study of pedestrian dynamics in realistic world. In this paper we present a model based on the parallel computational tool of cellular automata CA capable of simulating the process of disembarking in a small airplane seat layout, corresponding to Airbus A320 Boeing 737 layout, in search of ways to make it faster and safer under normal evacuation conditions, as well as emergency scenarios. The proposed model is highly customizable, with the number of exits, the walking speed of passengers, depending on their sex, age and height, and the effects of retrieving and carrying luggage. Additionally, the presence of obstacles in the aisles as well as the emergence of panic being parameters whose values can be varied in order to enlighten the disembarking and emergency evacuation processes are considered in detail. The simulation results were compared to existing aircraft disembarking and evacuation times and indicate the efficacy of the proposed model in investigating and revealing passenger attributes during these processes in all the examined cases. Moreover, we parallelized our code in order to run on a graphics processing unit GPU using the CUDA programming language, speeding up the simulation process. Finally, in order to present a fully dynamical anticipative real-time system helpful for decision-making we implemented the proposed CA model in a field programmable gate array FPGA device, and recreated the results given by the software simulations in a fraction of the time. We then compared and exported the performance results among a sequential software implementation, the implementation running on a GPU, and a hardware implementation, proving the consequent acceleration that results from the parallel CA implementation in specific hardware. Starting with a short review of the available literature in the field of pedestrian and evacuation research, an overview is given over the observed collective phenomena in pedestrian crowds. This includes lane formation in corridors and oscillations at bottlenecks in normal situations, while different kinds of blocked states are produced in panic situations. By means of molecular-dynamic-like microsimulations based on a generalized force model of interactive pedestrian dynamics, the spatio-temporal patterns in pedestrian crowds are successfully reproduced and interpreted as self-organized phenomena. In contrast to previous socio-psychological approaches, this allows a physical understanding of the observations. Despite the significantly different phenomena occuring in normal and panic situations, the main effects can be described by a unified model containing only well interpretable and plausible terms. The transition between the “rational” normal behavior and the apparently “irrational” panic behavior is controlled by a single parameter, the “nervousness”, which influences fluctuation strengths, desired speeds, and the tendency of herding. Thereby, it causes paradoxial effects like “freezing by heating”, “faster is slower”, and the ignorance of available exits. Nevertheless, there are measures to improve pedestrian flows, both in normal and panic situations. For example, the suitable placement of columns can help, although they reduce the accessible space. In this paper, we study the safe navigation of a mobile robot through crowds of dynamic agents with uncertain trajectories. Existing algorithms suffer from the “freezing robot” problem: once the environment surpasses a certain level of complexity, the planner decides that all forward paths are unsafe, and the robot freezes in place (or performs unnecessary maneuvers) to avoid collisions. Since a feasible path typically exists, this behavior is suboptimal. Existing approaches have focused on reducing the predictive uncertainty for individual agents by employing more informed models or heuristically limiting the predictive covariance to prevent this overcautious behavior. In this work, we demonstrate that both the individual prediction and the predictive uncertainty have little to do with the frozen robot problem. Our key insight is that dynamic agents solve the frozen robot problem by engaging in “joint collision avoidance”: They cooperatively make room to create feasible trajectories. We develop IGP, a nonparametric statistical model based on dependent output Gaussian processes that can estimate crowd interaction from data. Our model naturally captures the non-Markov nature of agent trajectories, as well as their goal-driven navigation. We then show how planning in this model can be efficiently implemented using particle based inference. Lastly, we evaluate our model on a dataset of pedestrians entering and leaving a building, first comparing the model with actual pedestrians, and find that the algorithm either outperforms human pedestrians or performs very similarly to the pedestrians. We also present an experiment where a covariance reduction method results in highly overcautious behavior, while our model performs desirably. This paper proposes a group-based framework with dedicated path planning for emergency guiding based on Internet of Things (IoT) technologies. The proposed framework can model the spatiotemporal mobility of indoor people to determine and relieve the congestion of corridors and exits. A dedicated path can be determined to provide the shortest evacuation time for each group of nearby people. The corridor and exit capacities, corridor lengths, clustering motion of a group, concurrent moving of different groups, and up-to-date distribution of group people are considered together to accurately estimate the evacuation time for each group. Based on the estimated evacuation time, evacuation load can be evenly distributed among corridors and exits to alleviate the congestion of all corridors and exits for minimizing total evacuation time. The performance of the proposed framework is evaluated by conducting mathematical analysis and computer simulations, which outperforms existing schemes and can achieve the shortest evacuation time for group-based emergency guiding. In addition, an Android-based prototype with indoor IoT localization technologies is implemented to verify the feasibility of our framework. We consider the problem of navigating a mobile robot through dense human crowds. We begin by exploring a fundamental impediment to classical motion planning algorithms called the âfreezing robot problemâ: once the environment surpasses a certain level of dynamic complexity, the planner decides that all forward paths are unsafe, and the robot freezes in place or performs unnecessary maneuvers to avoid collisions. We argue that this problem can be avoided if the robot anticipates human cooperation, and accordingly we develop interacting Gaussian processes, a prediction density that captures cooperative collision avoidance, and a âmultiple goalâ extension that models the goal-driven nature of human decision making. We validate this model with an empirical study of robot navigation in dense human crowds 488 runs, specifically testing how cooperation models effect navigation performance. The multiple goal interacting Gaussian processes algorithm performs comparably with human teleoperators in crowd densities nearing 0.8 humans m2, while a state-of-the-art non-cooperative planner exhibits unsafe behavior more than three times as often as the multiple goal extension, and twice as often as the basic interacting Gaussian process approach. Furthermore, a reactive planner based on the widely used dynamic window approach proves insufficient for crowd densities above 0.55 people m2. We also show that our non-cooperative planner or our reactive planner capture the salient characteristics of nearly any dynamic navigation algorithm. Based on these experimental results and theoretical observations, we conclude that a cooperation model is critical for safe and efficient robot navigation in dense human crowds. We introduce and analyze a simple probabilistic cellular automaton which emulates the flow of cars along a highway. Our Traffic CA captures the essential features of several more complicated algorithms, studied numerically by K. Nagel and others over the past decade as prototypes for the emergence of traffic jams. By simplifying the dynamics, we are able to identify and precisely formulate the self-organized critical evolution of our system. We focus here on the Cruise Control case, in which well-spaced cars move deterministically at maximal speed, and we obtain rigorous results for several special cases. Then we introduce a symmetry assumption that leads to a two-parameter model, described in terms of acceleration (α) and braking (β) probabilities. Based on the results of simulations, we map out the (α, β) phase diagram, identifying three qualitatively distinct varieties of traffic which arise, and we derive rigorous bounds to establish the existence of a phase transition from free flow to jams. Many other results and conjectures are presented. From a mathematical perspective, Traffic CA provides local, particle-conserving, one-dimensional dynamics which cluster, and converge to a mixture of two distinct equilibria. Future vehicle systems for active pedestrian safety will not only require a high recognition performance but also an accurate analysis of the developing traffic situation. In this paper, we present a study on pedestrian path prediction and action classification at short subsecond time intervals. We consider four representative approaches: two novel approaches (based on Gaussian process dynamical models and probabilistic hierarchical trajectory matching) that use augmented features derived from dense optical flow and two approaches as baseline that use positional information only (a Kalman filter and its extension to interacting multiple models). In experiments using stereo vision data obtained from a vehicle, we investigate the accuracy of path prediction and action classification at various time horizons, the effect of various errors (image localization, vehicle egomotion estimation), and the benefit of the proposed approaches. The scenario of interest is that of a crossing pedestrian, who might stop or continue walking at the road curbside. Results indicate similar performance of the four approaches on walking motion, with near-linear dynamics. During stopping, however, the two newly proposed approaches, with nonlinear and or higher order models and augmented motion features, achieve a more accurate position prediction of 10-50 cm at a time horizon of 0-0.77 s around the stopping event. In this paper, a new Mixture model of Dynamic pedestrian-Agents (MDA) is proposed to learn the collective behavior patterns of pedestrians in crowded scenes. Collective behaviors characterize the intrinsic dynamics of the crowd. From the agent-based modeling, each pedestrian in the crowd is driven by a dynamic pedestrian-agent, which is a linear dynamic system with its initial and termination states reflecting a pedestrian's belief of the starting point and the destination. Then the whole crowd is modeled as a mixture of dynamic pedestrian-agents. Once the model is unsupervisedly learned from real data, MDA can simulate the crowd behaviors. Furthermore, MDA can well infer the past behaviors and predict the future behaviors of pedestrians given their trajectories only partially observed, and classify different pedestrian behaviors in the scene. The effectiveness of MDA and its applications are demonstrated by qualitative and quantitative experiments on the video surveillance dataset collected from the New York Grand Central Station. We present a novel Dynamic Bayesian Network for pedestrian path prediction in the intelligent vehicle domain. The model incorporates the pedestrian situational awareness, situation criticality and spatial layout of the environment as latent states on top of a Switching Linear Dynamical System (SLDS) to anticipate changes in the pedestrian dynamics. Using computer vision, situational awareness is assessed by the pedestrian head orientation, situation criticality by the distance between vehicle and pedestrian at the expected point of closest approach, and spatial layout by the distance of the pedestrian to the curbside. Our particular scenario is that of a crossing pedestrian, who might stop or continue walking at the curb. In experiments using stereo vision data obtained from a vehicle, we demonstrate that the proposed approach results in more accurate path prediction than only SLDS, at the relevant short time horizon (1 s), and slightly outperforms a computationally more demanding state-of-the-art method. We propose an agent-based behavioral model of pedestrians to improve tracking performance in realistic scenarios. In this model, we view pedestrians as decision-making agents who consider a plethora of personal, social, and environmental factors to decide where to go next. We formulate prediction of pedestrian behavior as an energy minimization on this model. Two of our main contributions are simple, yet effective estimates of pedestrian destination and social relationships (groups). Our final contribution is to incorporate these hidden properties into an energy formulation that results in accurate behavioral prediction. We evaluate both our estimates of destination and grouping, as well as our accuracy at prediction and tracking against state of the art behavioral model and show improvements, especially in the challenging observational situation of infrequent appearance observations–something that might occur in thousands of webcams available on the Internet. Abstract This paper explores the likely behaviours of train passengers in an emergency evacuation and examines four crucial theoretical issues on the passengers’ evacuation, including reactive vs. proactive behaviours, cooperative vs. competitive behaviours, symmetry breaking, and route exit choice. A survey of 1134 train passengers shows that respondents are not homogeneous in their likely behaviours. Overall, they are more likely to be reactive (e.g., wait for instruction from station staff) than proactive (e.g., move to exit) in an emergency situation. We also find that people are more likely to be co-operative (e.g., helping other people) than competitive (e.g., push other passengers). Although passengers are likely to show herding or symmetry breaking behaviour (e.g., following other passengers) than symmetric behaviour (e.g., choose least crowded exit), the degree of symmetry breaking behaviour is not as high as assumed in previous mathematical models. They are also unlikely to use escalators, lifts and train tunnels in their exit route choice during an emergency escape. In terms of demographic differences in behaviours, results from the ordered logit models demonstrate that there are significant differences in the evacuation behaviours between males and females but not among the different age groups. Besides providing valuable information for developing mathematical models intended to simulate passengers’ evacuation in a train station, our findings can assist managers of emergency response in developing appropriate strategies and training, and in designing solutions and education campaigns for effective evacuation. Active safety systems which assess highly dynamic traffic situations including pedestrians are required with growing demands in autonomous driving and ADAS. In this paper, we focus on one of the most hazardous traffic situations: the possible collision between a pedestrian and a turning vehicle at intersections. This paper presents a probabilistic model of pedestrian behavior to signalized crosswalks. For this purpose, we take not only pedestrian physical states but also contextual information into account. We propose a model based on the Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) which integrates relations among the intersection context information and the pedestrian behavior in the same way as human. Afterwards, the model jointly estimates their states by the particle filter. Experimental evaluation using real traffic data shows that this model is able to recognize the pedestrian crossing decision in advance from the traffic signal and pedestrian position information. With the rapid development of the techniques for autonomous driving and ADAS in the last decade, more advanced methods to understand pedestrian behavior are required. Crosswalks at intersections are the one of most hazardous where many accidents between turning-vehicles and pedestrians occur. In this paper, we present a method for estimating the pedestrian’s intention to cross a signalized crosswalk or stop in front of it. The intention is crucial to not only the collision avoidance but also smooth traffic in the context of autonomous driving by reducing unnecessary risk margins. Regarding the behavioral flow of pedestrian: assessment, decision-making and physical movement, as a stochastic process, we construct a probabilistic model with the Dynamic Bayesian Network. It takes account of not only pedestrian physical states but also contextual information and integrates the relationship among them. By employing the particle filter as a Bayesian filtering framework, the model estimates the pedestrian state from signal information and pedestrian position measurements. Evaluation using experimental data collected in real traffic scene shows that the proposed model has an ability to detect the pedestrian intention to cross a crosswalk even when he she is far from it. We develop predictive models of pedestrian dynamics by encoding the coupled nature of multi-pedestrian interaction using game theory, and deep learning-based visual analysis to estimate person-specific behavior parameters. Building predictive models for multi-pedestrian interactions however, is very challenging due to two reasons: (1) the dynamics of interaction are complex interdependent processes, where the predicted behavior of one pedestrian can affect the actions taken by others and (2) dynamics are variable depending on an individuals physical characteristics (e.g., an older person may walk slowly while the younger person may walk faster). To address these challenges, we (1) utilize concepts from game theory to model the interdependent decision making process of multiple pedestrians and (2) use visual classifiers to learn a mapping from pedestrian appearance to behavior parameters. We evaluate our proposed model on several public multiple pedestrian interaction video datasets. Results show that our strategic planning model explains human interactions 25 better when compared to state-of-the-art methods. We present an approach for mobile robots to learn to navigate in dynamic environments with pedestrians via raw depth inputs, in a socially compliant manner. To achieve this, we adopt a generative adversarial imitation learning (GAIL) strategy, which improves upon a pre-trained behavior cloning policy. Our approach overcomes the disadvantages of previous methods, as they heavily depend on the full knowledge of the location and velocity information of nearby pedestrians, which not only requires specific sensors, but also the extraction of such state information from raw sensory input could consume much computation time. In this paper, our proposed GAIL-based model performs directly on raw depth inputs and plans in real-time. Experiments show that our GAIL-based approach greatly improves the safety and efficiency of the behavior of mobile robots from pure behavior cloning. The real-world deployment also shows that our method is capable of guiding autonomous vehicles to navigate in a socially compliant manner directly through raw depth inputs. In addition, we release a simulation plugin for modeling pedestrian behaviors based on the social force model. A method for predicting pedestrian movement on the basis of a mixed Markov-chain model (MMM) is proposed. MMM takes into account a pedestrian's personality as an unobservable parameter. It also takes into account the effects of the pedestrian's previous status. A promotional experiment in a major shopping mall demonstrated that the highest prediction accuracy of the MMM method is 74.4 . In comparison with methods based on a Markov-chain model (MM) and a hidden-Markov model (HMM) (i.e., prediction rates of about 45 and 2 , respectively), the proposed MMM-based prediction method is substantially more accurate. This pedestrian-movement prediction based on MMM using tracking data will make it possible to provide so-called "adaptive mobile services" with proactive functions. We present a novel approach for pedestrian intention recognition for advanced video-based driver assistance systems using a Latent-dynamic Conditional Random Field model. The model integrates pedestrian dynamics and situational awareness using observations from a stereo-video system for pedestrian detection and human head pose estimation. The model is able to capture both intrinsic and extrinsic class dynamics. Evaluation of our method is performed on a public available dataset addressing scenarios of lateral approaching pedestrians that might cross the road, turn into the road or stop at the curbside. During experiments, we demonstrate that the proposed approach leads to better stability and class separation compared to state-of-the-art pedestrian intention recognition approaches. In this paper, we target on the problem of estimating the statistic of pedestrian travel time within a period from an entrance to a destination in a crowded scene. Such estimation is based on the global distributions of crowd densities and velocities instead of complete trajectories of pedestrians, which cannot be obtained in crowded scenes. The proposed method is motivated by our statistical investigation into the correlations between travel time and global properties of crowded scenes. Active regions are created for each source-destination pair to model the probable walking regions over the corresponding source-destination traffic flow. Two sets of scene features are specially designed for modeling moving and stationary persons inside the active regions and their influences on pedestrian travel time. The estimation of pedestrian travel time provides valuable information for both crowd scene understanding and pedestrian behavior analysis, but was not sufficiently studied in literature. The effectiveness of the proposed pedestrian travel time estimation model is demonstrated through several surveillance applications, including dynamic scene monitoring, localization of regions blocking traffics, and detection of abnormal pedestrian behaviors. Many more valuable applications based on our method are to be explored in the future. We develop predictive models of pedestrian dynamics by encoding the coupled nature of multi-pedestrian interaction using game theory and deep learning-based visual analysis to estimate person-specific behavior parameters. We focus on predictive models since they are important for developing interactive autonomous systems (e.g., autonomous cars, home robots, smart homes) that can understand different human behavior and pre-emptively respond to future human actions. Building predictive models for multi-pedestrian interactions however, is very challenging due to two reasons: (1) the dynamics of interaction are complex interdependent processes, where the decision of one person can affect others, and (2) dynamics are variable, where each person may behave differently (e.g., an older person may walk slowly while the younger person may walk faster). To address these challenges, we utilize concepts from game theory to model the intertwined decision making process of multiple pedestrians and use visual classifiers to learn a mapping from pedestrian appearance to behavior parameters. We evaluate our proposed model on several public multiple pedestrian interaction video datasets. Results show that our strategic planning model predicts and explains human interactions 25 better when compared to a state-of-the-art activity forecasting method.