In the time-decay model for data streams, elements of an underlying data set arrive sequentially with the recently arrived elements being more important. A common approach for handling large data sets is to maintain a , a succinct summary of the processed data that allows approximate recovery of a predetermined query. We provide a general framework that takes any offline-coreset and gives a time-decay coreset for polynomial time decay functions. We also consider the exponential time decay model for @math -median clustering, where we provide a constant factor approximation algorithm that utilizes the online facility location algorithm. Our algorithm stores @math points where @math is the half-life of the decay function and @math is the aspect ratio of the dataset. Our techniques extend to @math -means clustering and @math -estimators as well.
Cohen and Strauss @cite_47 study problems in time-decaying data streams in 2003. There are a number of results @cite_49 @cite_41 @cite_46 @cite_24 in this line of work, but the most prominent time-decay model is the sliding window model. Datar al , @cite_4 introduced the exponential histogram as a framework in the sliding window for estimating statistics such as count, sum of positive integers, average, and @math norms. This initiated an active line of research, including improvements to count and sum @cite_26 , frequent itemsets @cite_33 @cite_12 , frequency counts and quantiles @cite_32 @cite_44 , rarity and similarity @cite_11 , variance and @math -medians @cite_36 and other geometric and numerical linear algebra problems @cite_10 @cite_25 @cite_18 .
@cite_18 @cite_26 @cite_4 @cite_33 @cite_41 @cite_46 @cite_36 @cite_32 @cite_24 @cite_44 @cite_49 @cite_47 @cite_10 @cite_25 @cite_12 @cite_11
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In the streaming model elements arrive sequentially and can be observed only once. Maintaining statistics and aggregates is an important and non-trivial task in the model. This becomes even more challenging in the sliding windows model, where statistics must be maintained only over the most recent n elements. In their pioneering paper, Datar, Gionis, Indyk and Motwani [15] presented exponential histograms, an effective method for estimating statistics on sliding windows. In this paper we present a new smooth histograms method that improves the approximation error rate obtained via exponential histograms. Furthermore, our smooth histograms method not only captures and improves multiple previous results on sliding windows bur also extends the class functions that can be approximated on sliding windows. In particular, we provide the first approximation algorithms for the following functions: Lp norms for p notin [1,2], frequency moments, length of increasing subsequence and geometric mean. We consider the problem of maintaining aggregates and statistics over data streams, with respect to the last N data elements seen so far. We refer to this model as the sliding window model. We consider the following basic problem: Given a stream of bits, maintain a count of the number of 1's in the last N elements seen from the stream. We show that, using @math bits of memory, we can estimate the number of 1's to within a factor of @math . We also give a matching lower bound of @math memory bits for any deterministic or randomized algorithms. We extend our scheme to maintain the sum of the last N positive integers and provide matching upper and lower bounds for this more general problem as well. We also show how to efficiently compute the Lp norms ( @math ) of vectors in the sliding window model using our techniques. Using our algorithm, one can adapt many other techniques to work for the sliding window model with a multiplicative overhead of @math in memory and a @math factor loss in accuracy. These include maintaining approximate histograms, hash tables, and statistics or aggregates such as sum and averages. We consider the problem of maintaining aggregates and statistics over data streams, with respect to the last N data elements seen so far. We refer to this model as the sliding window model. We consider the following basic problem: Given a stream of bits, maintain a count of the number of 1's in the last N elements seen from the stream. We show that using O(1 e log2N) bits of memory, we can estimate the number of 1's to within a factor of 1 + e. We also give a matching lower bound of Ω(1 e log2 N) memory bits for any deterministic or randomized algorithms. We extend our scheme to maintain the sum of the last N positive integers. We provide matching upper and lower bounds for this more general problem as well. We apply our techniques to obtain efficient algorithms for the L p norms (for p e [1, 2]) of vectors under the sliding window model. Using the algorithm for the basic counting problem, one can adapt many other techniques to work for the sliding window model, with a multiplicative overhead of O(1 elog N) in memory and a 1 + e factor loss in accuracy. These include maintaining approximate histograms, hash tables, and statistics or aggregates such as sum and averages. We initiate the study of numerical linear algebra in the sliding window model, where only the most recent @math updates in the data stream form the underlying set. Although most existing work in the sliding window model uses the smooth histogram framework, most interesting linear-algebraic problems are not smooth; we show that the spectral norm, vector induced matrix norms, generalized regression, and low-rank approximation are not amenable for the smooth histogram framework. To overcome this challenge, we first give a deterministic algorithm that achieves spectral approximation in the sliding window model that can be viewed as a generalization of smooth histograms, using the Loewner ordering of PSD matrices. We then give algorithms for both spectral approximation and low-rank approximation that are space-optimal up to polylogarithmic factors. Our algorithms are based on a new notion of "reverse online" leverage scores that account for both how unique and how recent a row is, while preserving sparsity so that both our algorithms run in input sparsity runtime, up to lower order factors. We show that our techniques have applications to linear-algebraic problems in other settings. Specifically, we show that our analysis immediately implies an algorithm for low-rank approximation in the online setting that is space-optimal up to logarithmic factors, as well as nearly input sparsity time. We show our deterministic spectral approximation algorithm can be used to handle @math spectral approximation in the sliding window model under a certain assumption on the bit complexity of the entries. Finally, we show that our downsampling framework can be applied to the problem of approximate matrix multiplication and provide upper and lower bounds that are tight up to @math factors. where (an)n ENo is some sequence of nonnegative numbers, (Sn),nENo is the sequence of partial sums, S0 = 0, Sn = XflXk, of another sequence (Xk)kEN of i.i.d. random variables, and A c R is a fixed Borel set such as [0,1] or [0, oo). Examples of such convolution series are subordinated distributions (f=0Oan = 1) which arise as distributions of random sums, and harmonic and ordinary renewal measures (a0 = 0, an = 1 n for all n C N in the first, an = 1 for all n C NO in the second case). These examples are in turn essential for the analysis of the large time behaviour of diverse applied models such as branching and queueing processes, they are also of interest in connection with representation theorems such as the Levy representation of infinitely divisible distributions. A traditional approach to such problems is via regular variation: If the underlying random variables are nonnegative we can use Laplace transforms and the related Abelian and Tauberian theorems [see, e.g., Stam (1973) in the context of subordination and Feller (1971, XIV.3) in connection with renewal theory; Embrechts, Maejima, and Omey (1984) is a recent treatment of generalized renewal measures along these lines]. The approach of the present paper is based on the Wiener-Levy-Gel'fand theorem and has occasionally been called the Banach algebra method. In Gruibel (1983) we gave a new variant of this method for the special case of lattice distributions, showing that by using the appropriate Banach algebras of sequences, arbitrarily fine expansions are possible under certain assumptions on the higher-order differences of (P(X1 = n))fnEN. Here we give a corresponding treatment of nonlattice distributions. We restrict ourselves to an analogue of first-order differences and obtain a number of theorems which perhaps are described best as next-term results. To explain this let us consider a special case in more detail. We are interested in the clusters formed by a Poisson ensemble of Markovian loops on infinite graphs. This model was introduced and studied in Le Jan (C R Math Acad Sci Paris 350(13–14):643–646, 2012, Ill J Math 57(2):525–558, 2013). It is a model with long range correlations with two parameters ( ) and ( ). The non-negative parameter ( ) measures the amount of loops, and ( ) plays the role of killing on vertices penalizing ( ( >0 )) or favoring ( ( <0 )) appearance of large loops. It was shown in Le Jan (Ill J Math 57(2):525–558, 2013) that for any fixed ( ) and large enough ( ), there exists an infinite cluster in the loop percolation on ( Z ^d ). In the present article, we show a non-trivial phase transition on the integer lattice ( Z ^d ) ( (d 3 )) for ( =0 ). More precisely, we show that there is no loop percolation for ( =0 ) and ( ) small enough. Interestingly, we observe a critical like behavior on the whole sub-critical domain of ( ), namely, for ( =0 ) and any sub-critical value of ( ), the probability of one-arm event decays at most polynomially. For (d 5 ), we prove that there exists a non-trivial threshold for the finiteness of the expected cluster size. For ( ) below this threshold, we calculate, up to a constant factor, the decay of the probability of one-arm event, two point function, and the tail distribution of the cluster size. These rates are comparable with the ones obtained from a single large loop and only depend on the dimension. For (d=3 ) or 4, we give better lower bounds on the decay of the probability of one-arm event, which show importance of small loops for long connections. In addition, we show that the one-arm exponent in dimension 3 depends on the intensity ( ). In this paper we study the problem of constructing histograms from high-speed time-changing data streams. Learning in this context requires the ability to process examples once at the rate they arrive, maintaining a histogram consistent with the most recent data, and forgetting out-date data whenever a change in the distribution is detected. To construct histogram from high-speed data streams we use the two layer structure used in the Partition Incremental Discretization (PiD) algorithm. Our contribution is a new method to detect whenever a change in the distribution generating examples occurs. The base idea consists of monitoring distributions from two different time windows: the reference time window, that reflects the distribution observed in the past; and the current time window reflecting the distribution observed in the most recent data. We compare both distributions and signal a change whenever they are greater than a threshold value, using three different methods: the Entropy Absolute Difference, the Kullback-Leibler divergence and the Cosine Distance. The experimental results suggest that Kullback-Leibler divergence exhibit high probability in change detection, faster detection rates, with few false positives alarms. Multi-layer neural networks have lead to remarkable performance on many kinds of benchmark tasks in text, speech and image processing. Nonlinear parameter estimation in hierarchical models is known to be subject to overfitting and misspecification. One approach to these estimation and related problems (local minima, colinearity, feature discovery etc.) is called Dropout (Hinton, et al 2012, 2016). The Dropout algorithm removes hidden units according to a Bernoulli random variable with probability @math prior to each update, creating random "shocks" to the network that are averaged over updates. In this paper we will show that Dropout is a special case of a more general model published originally in 1990 called the Stochastic Delta Rule, or SDR (Hanson, 1990). SDR redefines each weight in the network as a random variable with mean @math and standard deviation @math . Each weight random variable is sampled on each forward activation, consequently creating an exponential number of potential networks with shared weights. Both parameters are updated according to prediction error, thus resulting in weight noise injections that reflect a local history of prediction error and local model averaging. SDR therefore implements a more sensitive local gradient-dependent simulated annealing per weight converging in the limit to a Bayes optimal network. Tests on standard benchmarks (CIFAR) using a modified version of DenseNet shows the SDR outperforms standard Dropout in test error by approx. @math with DenseNet-BC 250 on CIFAR-100 and approx. @math in smaller networks. We also show that SDR reaches the same accuracy that Dropout attains in 100 epochs in as few as 35 epochs. We consider the problem of maintaining polynomial and exponential decay aggregates of a data stream, where the weight of values seen from the stream diminishes as time elapses. These types of aggregation were discussed by Cohen and Strauss (J. Algorithms 1(59), 2006), and can be used in many applications in which the relative value of streaming data decreases since the time the data was seen. Some recent work and space efficient algorithms were developed for time-decaying aggregations, and in particular polynomial and exponential decaying aggregations. All of the work done so far has maintained multiplicative approximations for the aggregates. In this paper we present the first O(log N) space algorithm for the polynomial decay under a multiplicative approximation, matching a lower bound. In addition, we explore and develop algorithms and lower bounds for approximations allowing an additive error in addition to the multiplicative error. We show that in some cases, allowing an additive error can decrease the amount of space required, while in other cases we cannot do any better than a solution without additive error. Recommender problems with large and dynamic item pools are ubiquitous in web applications like content optimization, online advertising and web search. Despite the availability of rich item meta-data, excess heterogeneity at the item level often requires inclusion of item-specific "factors" (or weights) in the model. However, since estimating item factors is computationally intensive, it poses a challenge for time-sensitive recommender problems where it is important to rapidly learn factors for new items (e.g., news articles, event updates, tweets) in an online fashion. In this paper, we propose a novel method called FOBFM (Fast Online Bilinear Factor Model) to learn item-specific factors quickly through online regression. The online regression for each item can be performed independently and hence the procedure is fast, scalable and easily parallelizable. However, the convergence of these independent regressions can be slow due to high dimensionality. The central idea of our approach is to use a large amount of historical data to initialize the online models based on offline features and learn linear projections that can effectively reduce the dimensionality. We estimate the rank of our linear projections by taking recourse to online model selection based on optimizing predictive likelihood. Through extensive experiments, we show that our method significantly and uniformly outperforms other competitive methods and obtains relative lifts that are in the range of 10-15 in terms of predictive log-likelihood, 200-300 for a rank correlation metric on a proprietary My Yahoo! dataset; it obtains 9 reduction in root mean squared error over the previously best method on a benchmark MovieLens dataset using a time-based train test data split. Documents and other categorical valued time series are often characterized by the frequencies of short range sequential patterns such as n-grams. This representation converts sequential data of varying lengths to high dimensional histogram vectors which are easily modeled by standard statistical models. Unfortunately, the histogram representation ignores most of the medium and long range sequential dependencies making it unsuitable for visualizing sequential data. We present a novel framework for sequential visualization of discrete categorical time series based on the idea of local statistical modeling. The framework embeds categorical time series as smooth curves in the multinomial simplex summarizing the progression of sequential trends. We discuss several visualization techniques based on the above framework and demonstrate their usefulness for document visualization. We consider a random, uniformly elliptic coefficient field (a(x) ) on the (d )-dimensional integer lattice ( Z ^d ). We are interested in the spatial decay of the quenched elliptic Green function (G(a;x,y) ). Next to stationarity, we assume that the spatial correlation of the coefficient field decays sufficiently fast to the effect that a logarithmic Sobolev inequality holds for the ensemble ( ). We prove that all stochastic moments of the first and second mixed derivatives of the Green function, that is, ( | _x G(x,y)|^p ) and ( | _x _y G(x,y)|^p ), have the same decay rates in (|x-y| 1 ) as for the constant coefficient Green function, respectively. This result relies on and substantially extends the one by Delmotte and Deuschel (Probab Theory Relat Fields 133:358–390, 2005), which optimally controls second moments for the first derivatives and first moments of the second mixed derivatives of (G ), that is, ( | _x G(x,y)|^2 ) and ( | _x _y G(x,y)| ). As an application, we are able to obtain optimal estimates on the random part of the homogenization error even for large ellipticity contrast. Time series data mining has received much greater interest along with the increase in temporal data sets from different domains such as medicine, finance, multimedia, etc. Representations are important to reduce dimensionality and generate useful similarity measures. High-level representations such as Fourier transforms, wavelets, piecewise polynomial models, etc., were considered previously. Recently, autoregressive kernels were introduced to reflect the similarity of the time series. We introduce a novel approach to model the dependency structure in time series that generalizes the concept of autoregression to local autopatterns. Our approach generates a pattern-based representation along with a similarity measure called learned pattern similarity (LPS). A tree-based ensemble-learning strategy that is fast and insensitive to parameter settings is the basis for the approach. Then, a robust similarity measure based on the learned patterns is presented. This unsupervised approach to represent and measure the similarity between time series generally applies to a number of data mining tasks (e.g., clustering, anomaly detection, classification). Furthermore, an embedded learning of the representation avoids pre-defined features and an extraction step which is common in some feature-based approaches. The method generalizes in a straightforward manner to multivariate time series. The effectiveness of LPS is evaluated on time series classification problems from various domains. We compare LPS to eleven well-known similarity measures. Our experimental results show that LPS provides fast and competitive results on benchmark datasets from several domains. Furthermore, LPS provides a research direction and template approach that breaks from the linear dependency models to potentially foster other promising nonlinear approaches. We consider the least-square linear regression problem with regularization by the l1-norm, a problem usually referred to as the Lasso. In this paper, we present a detailed asymptotic analysis of model consistency of the Lasso. For various decays of the regularization parameter, we compute asymptotic equivalents of the probability of correct model selection (i.e., variable selection). For a specific rate decay, we show that the Lasso selects all the variables that should enter the model with probability tending to one exponentially fast, while it selects all other variables with strictly positive probability. We show that this property implies that if we run the Lasso for several bootstrapped replications of a given sample, then intersecting the supports of the Lasso bootstrap estimates leads to consistent model selection. This novel variable selection algorithm, referred to as the Bolasso, is compared favorably to other linear regression methods on synthetic data and datasets from the UCI machine learning repository. We consider linear problems in fields, ordered fields, discretely valued fields (with finite residue field or residue field of characteristic zero) and fields with finitely many independent orderings and discrete valuations. Most of the fields considered will be of characteristic zero. Formally, linear statements about these structures (with parameters) are given by formulas of the respective first-order language, in which all bound variables occur only linearly. We study symbolic algorithms (linear elimination procedures) that reduce linear formulas to linear formulas of a very simple form, i.e. quantifier-free linear formulas, and algorithms (linear decision procedures) that decide whether a given linear sentence holds in all structures of the given class. For all classes of fields considered, we find linear elimination procedures that run in double exponential space and time. As a consequence, we can show that for fields (with one or several discrete valuations), linear statements can be transferred from characteristic zero to prime characteristic p, provided p is double exponential in the length of the statement. (For similar bounds in the non-linear case, see Brown, 1978.) We find corresponding linear decision procedures in the Berman complexity classes @[email protected]?NSTA(*,2^c^n,dn) for d = 1, 2. In particular, all hese procedures run in exponential space. The technique employed is quantifier elimination via Skolem terms based on Ferrante & Rackoff (1975). Using ideas of Fischer & Rabin (1974), Berman (1977), Furer (1982), we establish lower bounds for these problems showing that our upper bounds are essentially tight. For linear formulas with a bounded number of quantifiers all our algorithms run in polynomial time. For linear formulas of bounded quantifier alternation most of the algorithms run in time 2^O^(^n^^^k^) for fixed k. In the windowed data stream model, we observe items coming in over time. At any time t, we consider the window of the last N observations a t -(N-1), a t-(N-2),..., a t , each a i E 1,...,u ; we are required to support queries about the data in the window. A crucial restriction is that we are only allowed o(N) (often polylogarithmic in N) storage space, so not all items within the window can be archived. We study two basic problems in the windowed data stream model. The first is the estimation of the rarity of items in the window. Our second problem is one of estimating similarity between two data stream windows using the Jacard's coefficient. The problems of estimating rarity and similarity have many applications in mining massive data sets. We present novel, simple algorithms for estimating rarity and similarity on windowed data streams, accurate up to factor 1 ± e using space only logarithmic in the window size. Consider the problem of approximately counting weighted independent sets of a graph G with activity λ, i.e., where the weight of an independent set I is λ|I|. We present a novel analysis yielding a deterministic approximation scheme which runs in polynomial time for any graph of maximum degree Δ and λ< λc=(Δ-1)Δ-1 (Δ-2)Δ. This improves on the previously known general bound of λ ≤ (2 ‾ Δ-2). The new regime includes the interesting case of λ=1 (uniform weights) and Δ ≤ 5. The previous bound required Δ ≤ 4 for uniform approximate counting and there is evidence that for Δ ≥ 6 the problem is hard. Note that λc is the critical activity for uniqueness of the Gibbs measure on the regular tree of degree Δ, i.e., for λ ≤ λc the probability that the root is in the independent set is asymptotically independent of the configuration on the leaves far below. Indeed, our analysis is focused on establishing decay of correlations with distance in the above weighted distribution. We show that on any graph of maximum degree Δ correlations decay with distance at least as fast as they do on the regular tree of the same degree. This resolves an open conjecture in statistical physics. Our comparison of a general graph with the tree uses an algorithmic argument yielding the approximation scheme mentioned above. Also, by existing arguments, establishing decay of correlations for all graphs and λ<λc gives that the Glauber dynamics is rapidly mixing in this regime. However, the implication from decay of correlations to rapid mixing of the dynamics is only known to hold for graphs of subexponential growth, and hence, our result regarding the Glauber dynamics is limited to this class of graphs. Let f be a random Boolean formula that is an instance of 3-SAT. We consider the problem of computing the least real number k such that if the ratio of the number of clauses over the number of variables of f strictly exceeds k , then f is almost certainly unsatisfiable. By a well-known and more or less straightforward argument, it can be shown that kF5.191. This upper bound was improved by to 4.758 by first providing new improved bounds for the occupancy problem. There is strong experimental evidence that the value of k is around 4.2. In this work, we define, in terms of the random formula f, a decreasing sequence of random variables such that, if the expected value of any one of them converges to zero, then f is almost certainly unsatisfiable. By letting the expected value of the first term of the sequence converge to zero, we obtain, by simple and elementary computations, an upper bound for k equal to 4.667. From the expected value of the second term of the sequence, we get the value 4.601q . In general, by letting the U This work was performed while the first author was visiting the School of Computer Science, Carleton Ž University, and was partially supported by NSERC Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council . of Canada , and by a grant from the University of Patras for sabbatical leaves. The second and third Ž authors were supported in part by grants from NSERC Natural Sciences and Engineering Research . Council of Canada . During the last stages of this research, the first and last authors were also partially Ž . supported by EU ESPRIT Long-Term Research Project ALCOM-IT Project No. 20244 . †An extended abstract of this paper was published in the Proceedings of the Fourth Annual European Ž Symposium on Algorithms, ESA’96, September 25]27, 1996, Barcelona, Spain Springer-Verlag, LNCS, . pp. 27]38 . That extended abstract was coauthored by the first three authors of the present paper. Correspondence to: L. M. Kirousis Q 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. CCC 1042-9832r98r030253-17 253 We consider solutions to the linear wave equation @math on a non-extremal maximally extended Schwarzschild-de Sitter spacetime arising from arbitrary smooth initial data prescribed on an arbitrary Cauchy hypersurface. (In particular, no symmetry is assumed on initial data, and the support of the solutions may contain the sphere of bifurcation of the black white hole horizons and the cosmological horizons.) We prove that in the region bounded by a set of black white hole horizons and cosmological horizons, solutions @math converge pointwise to a constant faster than any given polynomial rate, where the decay is measured with respect to natural future-directed advanced and retarded time coordinates. We also give such uniform decay bounds for the energy associated to the Killing field as well as for the energy measured by local observers crossing the event horizon. The results in particular include decay rates along the horizons themselves. Finally, we discuss the relation of these results to previous heuristic analysis of Price and Preface 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Examples of Time Series 1.2 Objectives of Time Series Analysis 1.3 Some Simple Time Series Models 1.3.3 A General Approach to Time Series Modelling 1.4 Stationary Models and the Autocorrelation Function 1.4.1 The Sample Autocorrelation Function 1.4.2 A Model for the Lake Huron Data 1.5 Estimation and Elimination of Trend and Seasonal Components 1.5.1 Estimation and Elimination of Trend in the Absence of Seasonality 1.5.2 Estimation and Elimination of Both Trend and Seasonality 1.6 Testing the Estimated Noise Sequence 1.7 Problems 2 STATIONARY PROCESSES 2.1 Basic Properties 2.2 Linear Processes 2.3 Introduction to ARMA Processes 2.4 Properties of the Sample Mean and Autocorrelation Function 2.4.2 Estimation of @math and @math 2.5 Forecasting Stationary Time Series 2.5.3 Prediction of a Stationary Process in Terms of Infinitely Many Past Values 2.6 The Wold Decomposition 1.7 Problems 3 ARMA MODELS 3.1 ARMA( @math ) Processes 3.2 The ACF and PACF of an ARMA @math Process 3.2.1 Calculation of the ACVF 3.2.2 The Autocorrelation Function 3.2.3 The Partial Autocorrelation Function 3.3 Forecasting ARMA Processes 1.7 Problems 4 SPECTRAL ANALYSIS 4.1 Spectral Densities 4.2 The Periodogram 4.3 Time-Invariant Linear Filters 4.4 The Spectral Density of an ARMA Process 1.7 Problems 5 MODELLING AND PREDICTION WITH ARMA PROCESSES 5.1 Preliminary Estimation 5.1.1 Yule-Walker Estimation 5.1.3 The Innovations Algorithm 5.1.4 The Hannan-Rissanen Algorithm 5.2 Maximum Likelihood Estimation 5.3 Diagnostic Checking 5.3.1 The Graph of $ =1, ,n 5.3.2 The Sample ACF of the Residuals