We provide a framework for modeling social network formation through conditional multinomial logit models from discrete choice and random utility theory, in which each new edge is viewed as a “choice” made by a node to connect to another node, based on (generic) features of the other nodes available to make a connection. This perspective on network formation unifies existing models such as preferential attachment, triadic closure, and node fitness, which are all special cases, and thereby provides a flexible means for conceptualizing, estimating, and comparing models. The lens of discrete choice theory also provides several new tools for analyzing social network formation; for example, the significance of node features can be evaluated in a statistically rigorous manner, and mixtures of existing models can be estimated by adapting known expectation-maximization algorithms. We demonstrate the flexibility of our framework through examples that analyze a number of synthetic and real-world datasets. For example, we provide rigorous methods for estimating preferential attachment models and show how to separate the effects of preferential attachment and triadic closure. Non-parametric estimates of the importance of degree show a highly linear trend, and we expose the importance of looking carefully at nodes with degree zero. Examining the formation of a large citation graph, we find evidence for an increased role of degree when accounting for age.
A related line of research studies the so-called stochastic actor-oriented model @cite_40 @cite_27 . This model combines multiple formation dynamics in a multinomial logit functional form, and develops connections between network formation and Markov chains in the space of graphs. However, they are impractical to estimate, especially for larger data sets. should increase distancing here? Need to return to the distancing here. Why is it impractical for large datasets?
@cite_27 @cite_40
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Abstract Stochastic actor-based models are models for network dynamics that can represent a wide variety of influences on network change, and allow to estimate parameters expressing such influences, and test corresponding hypotheses. The nodes in the network represent social actors, and the collection of ties represents a social relation. The assumptions posit that the network evolves as a stochastic process ‘driven by the actors’, i.e., the model lends itself especially for representing theories about how actors change their outgoing ties. The probabilities of tie changes are in part endogenously determined, i.e., as a function of the current network structure itself, and in part exogenously, as a function of characteristics of the nodes (‘actor covariates’) and of characteristics of pairs of nodes (‘dyadic covariates’). In an extended form, stochastic actor-based models can be used to analyze longitudinal data on social networks jointly with changing attributes of the actors: dynamics of networks and behavior. This paper gives an introduction to stochastic actor-based models for dynamics of directed networks, using only a minimum of mathematics. The focus is on understanding the basic principles of the model, understanding the results, and on sensible rules for model selection. A class of statistical models is proposed for longitudinal network data. The dependent variable is the changing (or evolving) relation network, represented by two or more observations of a directed graph with a fixed set of actors. The network evolution is modeled as the consequence of the actors making new choices, or withdrawing existing choices, on the basis of functions, with fixed and random components, that the actors try to maximize. Individual and dyadic exogenous variables can be used as covariates. The change in the network is modeled as the stochastic result of network effects (reciprocity, transitivity, etc.) and these covariates. The existing network structure is a dynamic constraint for the evolution of the structure itself. The models are continuous-time Markov chain models that can be implemented as simulation models. The model parameters are estimated from observed data. For estimating and testing these models, statistical procedures are proposed that are based on the method of moments. The statistical procedures are implemented using a stochastic approximation algorithm based on computer simulations of the network evolution process. We develop an information-theoretic view of the stochastic block model, a popular statistical model for the large-scale structure of complex networks. A graph G from such a model is generated by first assigning vertex labels at random from a finite alphabet, and then connecting vertices with edge probabilities depending on the labels of the endpoints. In the case of the symmetric two-group model, we establish an explicit ‘single-letter’ characterization of the per-vertex mutual information between the vertex labels and the graph, when the graph average degree diverges. The explicit expression of the mutual information is intimately related to estimation-theoretic quantities, and -in particular- reveals a phase transition at the critical point for community detection. Below the critical point the per-vertex mutual information is asymptotically the same as if edges were independent of the vertex labels. Correspondingly, no algorithm can estimate the partition better than random guessing. Conversely, above the threshold, the per-vertex mutual information is strictly smaller than the independent-edges upper bound. In this regime there exists a procedure that estimates the vertex labels better than random guessing. Determining interrelatedness structure of various entities from multiple time series data is of significant interest to many areas. Knowledge of such a structure can aid in identifying cause and effect relationships, clustering of similar entities, identification of representative elements and model reduction. The majority of existing results are based on correlation based indices which effectively assume a static relationship between the time series data and are not suitable for detecting interrelatedness when the time series are dynamically related or when the time series involve loops. In this paper, a methodology for identifying the interrelatedness structure of dynamically related time series data is presented that also allows for the presence of loops in the connectivity structure. A linear dynamic graph model is presented where it is assumed that each time series data is the sum of an independent stochastic noise source and a dynamically weighted sum of other time series data. A link is assumed to be present between two time series if the weight of a time series, which is a linear time-invariant filter, is nonzero in the formation of the other. Reconstruction of the link connectivity structure under various scenarios is considered. It is shown that when the linear dynamic graph is allowed to admit non-causal weights, then the links structure can be recovered with the possibility of identifying spurious connections. However, it is shown that the spurious links remain local, where, a spurious link is restricted to be within one hop of a true link. Furthermore, strategies for exact reconstruction of the link structure when the weights are restricted to be causal are developed. The main tools for determining the network topology are based on variations of Wiener filtering. A significant insight provided by the article is that, in the class of network models considered in the paper, the Wiener filter estimating a stochastic process based on other processes remains local in the sense that the Wiener filter utilizes only measurements local to the node being estimated. We develop an information-theoretic view of the stochastic block model, a popular statistical model for the large-scale structure of complex networks. A graph @math from such a model is generated by first assigning vertex labels at random from a finite alphabet, and then connecting vertices with edge probabilities depending on the labels of the endpoints. In the case of the symmetric two-group model, we establish an explicit single-letter' characterization of the per-vertex mutual information between the vertex labels and the graph. The explicit expression of the mutual information is intimately related to estimation-theoretic quantities, and --in particular-- reveals a phase transition at the critical point for community detection. Below the critical point the per-vertex mutual information is asymptotically the same as if edges were independent. Correspondingly, no algorithm can estimate the partition better than random guessing. Conversely, above the threshold, the per-vertex mutual information is strictly smaller than the independent-edges upper bound. In this regime there exists a procedure that estimates the vertex labels better than random guessing. We introduce a general stochastic model for the spread of rumours, and derive mean-field equations that describe the dynamics of the model on complex social networks (in particular, those mediated by the Internet). We use analytical and numerical solutions of these equations to examine the threshold behaviour and dynamics of the model on several models of such networks: random graphs, uncorrelated scale-free networks and scale-free networks with assortative degree correlations. We show that in both homogeneous networks and random graphs the model exhibits a critical threshold in the rumour spreading rate below which a rumour cannot propagate in the system. In the case of scale-free networks, on the other hand, this threshold becomes vanishingly small in the limit of infinite system size. We find that the initial rate at which a rumour spreads is much higher in scale-free networks than in random graphs, and that the rate at which the spreading proceeds on scale-free networks is further increased when assortative degree correlations are introduced. The impact of degree correlations on the final fraction of nodes that ever hears a rumour, however, depends on the interplay between network topology and the rumour spreading rate. Our results show that scale-free social networks are prone to the spreading of rumours, just as they are to the spreading of infections. They are relevant to the spreading dynamics of chain emails, viral advertising and large-scale information dissemination algorithms on the Internet. Abstract A stochastic model is proposed for social networks in which the actors in a network are partitioned into subgroups called blocks. The model provides a stochastic generalization of the blockmodel. Estimation techniques are developed for the special case of a single relation social network, with blocks specified a priori. An extension of the model allows for tendencies toward reciprocation of ties beyond those explained by the partition. The extended model provides a one degree-of-freedom test of the model. A numerical example from the social network literature is used to illustrate the methods. This paper contains a quantitative evaluation of probabilistic traffic assignment models and proposes an alternate formulation. First, the concept of stochastic-user-equilibration (S-U-E) is formalized as an extension of Wardrop's user-equilibration criterion. Then, the stochastic-network-loading (S-N-L) problem (a special case of S-U-E for networks with constant link costs) is analyzed in detail and an expression for the probability of route choice which is based on two general postulates of user behavior is derived. The paper also discusses the weaknesses of existing S-N-L techniques with special attention paid to Dial's multipath method and compares them to the suggested approach. The proposed model seems reasonable and does not exhibit the inherent weaknesses of the logit model when applied to sets of routes which overlap heavily. The discussion is supported by several numerical examples on small contrived networks. The paper concludes with the discussion of two techniques that can be used to approximate the link flows resulting from the proposed model in large networks. The percolation phase transition and the mechanism of the emergence of the giant component through the critical scaling window for random graph models, has been a topic of great interest in many dierent communities ranging from statistical physics, combinatorics, computer science, social networks and probability theory. The last few years have witnessed an explosion of models which couple random aggregation rules, that specify how one adds edges to existing congurations, and choice, wherein one selects from a ‘limited’ set of edges at random to use in the conguration. These models exhibit fascinating new phenomenon, ranging from delaying or speeding up the emergence of the giant component, to percolation", where the diameter of the scaling window is several orders of magnitude smaller than that for standard random graph models. While an intense study of such models has ensued, understanding the actual emergence of the giant component and merging dynamics in the critical scaling window has remained impenetrable to a rigorous analysis. In this work we take an important step in the analysis of such models by studying one of the standard examples of such processes, namely the Bohman-Frieze model, and provide rst results on the asymptotic dynamics, through the critical scaling window, that lead to the emergence of the giant component for such models. We identify the scaling window and show that through this window, the component sizes properly rescaled converge to the standard multiplicative coalescent. Proofs hinge on a careful analysis of certain innite-type branching processes with types taking values in the space of RCLL paths, and stochastic analytic techniques to estimate susceptibility functions of the components all the way through the scaling window where these functions explode. Previous approaches for analyzing random graphs at criticality have relied largely on classical breadth-rst search techniques that exploit asymptotic connections with Brownian excursions. For dynamic random graph models evolving via general Markovian rules, such approaches fail and we develop a quite dierent set of tools that can potentially be used for the study of critical dynamics for all bounded size rules. In this paper, we present two methods for classification of different social network actors (individuals or organizations) such as leaders (e.g., news groups), lurkers, spammers and close associates. The first method is a two-stage process with a fuzzy-set theoretic (FST) approach to evaluation of the strengths of network links (or equivalently, actor-actor relationships) followed by a simple linear classifier to separate the actor classes. Since this method uses a lot of contextual information including actor profiles, actor-actor tweet and reply frequencies, it may be termed as a context-dependent approach. To handle the situation of limited availability of actor data for learning network link strengths, we also present a second method that performs actor classification by matching their short-term (say, roughly 25 days) tweet patterns with the generic tweet patterns of the prototype actors of different classes. Since little contextual information is used here, this can be called a context-independent approach. Our experimentation with over 500 randomly sampled records from a twitter database consists of 441,234 actors, 2,045,804 links, 6,481,900 tweets, and 2,312,927 total reply messages indicates that, in the context-independent analysis, a multilayer perceptron outperforms on both on classification accuracy and a new F-measure for classification performance, the Bayes classifier and Random Forest classifiers. However, as expected, the context-dependent analysis using link strengths evaluated using the FST approach in conjunction with some actor information reveals strong clustering of actor data based on their types, and hence can be considered as a superior approach when data available for training the system is abundant. We investigate social networks of characters found in cultural works such as novels and films. These character networks exhibit many of the properties of complex networks such as skewed degree distribution and community structure, but may be of relatively small order with a high multiplicity of edges. Building on recent work of Beveridge and Shan [4], we consider graph extraction, visualization, and network statistics for three novels: Twilight by Stephanie Meyer, Steven King’s The Stand, and J.K. Rowling’s Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire. Coupling with 800 character networks from films found in the http: moviegalaxies.com database, we compare the data sets to simulations from various stochastic complex networks models including random graphs with given expected degrees (also known as the Chung-Lu model), the configuration model, and the preferential attachment model. Using machine learning techniques based on motif (or small subgraph) counts, we determine that the Chung-Lu model best fits character networks and we conjecture why this may be the case. This paper reports statistical analyses performed on simulated data from a stochastic multi-agent model of speculative behaviour in a financial market. The price dynamics resulting from this artificial market process exhibits the same type of scaling laws as do empirical data from stock markets and foreign exchange markets: (i) one observes scaling in the probability distribution of relative price changes with a Pareto exponent around 2.6, (ii) volatility shows significant long-range correlation with a self-similarity parameter H around 0.85. This happens although we assume that news about the intrinsic or fundamental value of the asset follows a white noise process and, hence, incorporation of news about fundamental factors is insufficient to explain either of the characteristics (i) or (ii). As a consequence, in our model, the main stylised facts of financial data originate from the working of the market itself and one need not resort to scaling in unobservable extraneous signals as an explanation of the source of scaling in financial prices. The emergence of power laws can be explained by the existence of a critical state which is repeatedly approached in the course of the system's development. In a dynamic social or biological environment, interactions between the underlying actors can undergo large and systematic changes. Each actor can assume multiple roles and their degrees of affiliation to these roles can also exhibit rich temporal phenomena. We propose a state space mixed membership stochastic blockmodel which can track across time the evolving roles of the actors. We also derive an efficient variational inference procedure for our model, and apply it to the Enron email networks, and rewiring gene regulatory networks of yeast. In both cases, our model reveals interesting dynamical roles of the actors. Stochastic binary hidden units in a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) network give at least three potential benefits when compared to deterministic MLP networks. (1) They allow to learn one-to-many type of mappings. (2) They can be used in structured prediction problems, where modeling the internal structure of the output is important. (3) Stochasticity has been shown to be an excellent regularizer, which makes generalization performance potentially better in general. However, training stochastic networks is considerably more difficult. We study training using M samples of hidden activations per input. We show that the case M=1 leads to a fundamentally different behavior where the network tries to avoid stochasticity. We propose two new estimators for the training gradient and propose benchmark tests for comparing training algorithms. Our experiments confirm that training stochastic networks is difficult and show that the proposed two estimators perform favorably among all the five known estimators. In this paper we study how to learn stochastic, multimodal transition dynamics in reinforcement learning (RL) tasks. We focus on evaluating transition function estimation, while we defer planning over this model to future work. Stochasticity is a fundamental property of many task environments. However, discriminative function approximators have difficulty estimating multimodal stochasticity. In contrast, deep generative models do capture complex high-dimensional outcome distributions. First we discuss why, amongst such models, conditional variational inference (VI) is theoretically most appealing for model-based RL. Subsequently, we compare different VI models on their ability to learn complex stochasticity on simulated functions, as well as on a typical RL gridworld with multimodal dynamics. Results show VI successfully predicts multimodal outcomes, but also robustly ignores these for deterministic parts of the transition dynamics. In summary, we show a robust method to learn multimodal transitions using function approximation, which is a key preliminary for model-based RL in stochastic domains. The Gilbert model (1-st order Markov chain model) and the single-multiplexer model are two frequently used models in the study of packet-loss processes in communication networks. In this paper we investigate the accuracy of the Gilbert model, and higher-order Markov chain extended Gilbert models, in characterizing the packet-loss process associated with a transport network modeled in terms of a single-multiplexer. More specifically, we quantitatively compare the packet-loss statistics predicted by the Gilbert models with those predicted by an exact queueing analysis of the single-multiplexer model. This topic is important since low-complexity Gilbert models are frequently used to characterize end-to-end network packet-loss behavior. On the other hand, network congestion behavior is often characterized in terms of a single bottleneck node modeled as a multiplexer. It is of some interest then to establish the relative accuracy of Gilbert models in predicting the packet-loss behavior on even such a simplified network model. We demonstrate that the Gilbert models have some serious deficiencies in accurately predicting the packet-loss statistics of the single-multiplexer model. The results are shown to have some serious consequences for the performance evaluation of forward error correction (FEC) coding schemes used to combat the effects of packet losses due to network buffer overflows. We present a general model for the growth of weighted networks in which the structural growth is coupled with the edges’ weight dynamical evolution. The model is based on a simple weight-driven dynamics and a weights’ reinforcement mechanism coupled to the local network growth. That coupling can be generalized in order to include the effect of additional randomness and nonlinearities which can be present in real-world networks. The model generates weighted graphs exhibiting the statistical properties observed in several realworld systems. In particular, the model yields a nontrivial time evolution of vertices’ properties and scale-free behavior with exponents depending on the microscopic parameters characterizing the coupling rules. Very interestingly, the generated graphs spontaneously achieve a complex hierarchical architecture characterized by clustering and connectivity correlations varying as a function of the vertices’ degree. Although a large body of work is devoted to finding communities in static social networks, only a few studies examined the dynamics of communities in evolving social networks. In this paper, we propose a dynamic stochastic block model for finding communities and their evolution in a dynamic social network. The proposed model captures the evolution of communities by explicitly modeling the transition of community memberships for individual nodes in the network. Unlike many existing approaches for modeling social networks that estimate parameters by their most likely values (i.e., point estimation), in this study, we employ a Bayesian treatment for parameter estimation that computes the posterior distributions for all the unknown parameters. This Bayesian treatment allows us to capture the uncertainty in parameter values and therefore is more robust to data noise than point estimation. In addition, an efficient algorithm is developed for Bayesian inference to handle large sparse social networks. Extensive experimental studies based on both synthetic data and real-life data demonstrate that our model achieves higher accuracy and reveals more insights in the data than several state-of-the-art algorithms. Network models are widely used to represent relations between interacting units or actors. Network data often exhibit transitivity, meaning that two actors that have ties to a third actor are more likely to be tied than actors that do not, homophily by attributes of the actors or dyads, and clustering. Interest often focuses on finding clusters of actors or ties, and the number of groups in the data is typically unknown. We propose a new model, the "latent position cluster model", under which the probability of a tie between two actors depends on the distance between them in an unobserved Euclidean 'social space', and the actors' locations in the latent social space arise from a mixture of distributions, each corresponding to a cluster. We propose two estimation methods: a two-stage maximum likelihood method and a fully Bayesian method that uses Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. The former is quicker and simpler, but the latter performs better. We also propose a Bayesian way of determining the number of clusters that are present by using approximate conditional Bayes factors. Our model represents transitivity, homophily by attributes and clustering simultaneously and does not require the number of clusters to be known. The model makes it easy to simulate realistic networks with clustering, which are potentially useful as inputs to models of more complex systems of which the network is part, such as epidemic models of infectious disease. We apply the model to two networks of social relations. A free software package in the R statistical language, latentnet, is available to analyse data by using the model. Copyright 2007 Royal Statistical Society. Abstract As a consequence of the rising interest in longitudinal social networks and their analysis, there is also an increasing demand for tools to visualize them. We argue that similar adaptations of state-of-the-art graph-drawing methods can be used to visualize both, longitudinal networks and predictions of stochastic actor-oriented models (SAOMs), the most prominent approach for analyzing such networks. The proposed methods are illustrated on a longitudinal network of acquaintanceship among university freshmen.