Firms implementing digital advertising campaigns face a complex problem in determining the right match between their advertising creatives and target audiences. Typical solutions to the problem have leveraged non-experimental methods, or used "split-testing" strategies that have not explicitly addressed the complexities induced by targeted audiences that can potentially overlap with one another. This paper presents an adaptive algorithm that addresses the problem via online experimentation. The algorithm is set up as a contextual bandit and addresses the overlap issue by partitioning the target audiences into disjoint, non-overlapping sub-populations. It learns an optimal creative display policy in the disjoint space, while assessing in parallel which creative has the best match in the space of possibly overlapping target audiences. Experiments show that the proposed method is more efficient compared to naive "split-testing" or non-adaptive "A B n" testing based methods. We also describe a testing product we built that uses the algorithm. The product is currently deployed on the advertising platform of this http URL, an eCommerce company and a publisher of digital ads in China.
There is a mature literature on successful applications of bandits in web content optimization (e.g., @cite_5 , @cite_0 , @cite_1 , @cite_3 , @cite_9 ). This paper belongs to a sub-stream of this work that has focused on using bandits for controlled experiments on the web. The closest papers to our work are the complementary papers by @cite_4 , @cite_8 and @cite_6 who propose using bandit experiments to evaluate creatives for targeted advertising, without focusing explicitly on the problem addressed here of comparing target audiences.
@cite_4 @cite_8 @cite_9 @cite_1 @cite_3 @cite_6 @cite_0 @cite_5
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We propose novel multi-armed bandit (explore exploit) schemes to maximize total clicks on a content module published regularly on Yahoo! Intuitively, one can explore'' each candidate item by displaying it to a small fraction of user visits to estimate the item's click-through rate (CTR), and then exploit'' high CTR items in order to maximize clicks. While bandit methods that seek to find the optimal trade-off between explore and exploit have been studied for decades, existing solutions are not satisfactory for web content publishing applications where dynamic set of items with short lifetimes, delayed feedback and non-stationary reward (CTR) distributions are typical. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian solution and extend several existing schemes to our setting. Through extensive evaluation with nine bandit schemes, we show that our Bayesian solution is uniformly better in several scenarios. We also study the empirical characteristics of our schemes and provide useful insights on the strengths and weaknesses of each. Finally, we validate our results with a side-by-side'' comparison of schemes through live experiments conducted on a random sample of real user visits to Yahoo! We introduce a novel algorithmic approach to content recommendation based on adaptive clustering of exploration-exploitation "bandit") strategies. We provide a sharp regret analysis of this algorithm in a standard stochastic noise setting, demonstrate its scalability properties, and prove its effectiveness on a number of artificial and real-world datasets. Our experiments show a significant increase in prediction performance over state-of-the-art methods for bandit problems. In a multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem, an online algorithm makes a sequence of choices. In each round it chooses from a time-invariant set of alternatives and receives the payoff associated with this alternative. While the case of small strategy sets is by now well-understood, a lot of recent work has focused on MAB problems with exponentially or infinitely large strategy sets, where one needs to assume extra structure in order to make the problem tractable. In particular, recent literature considered information on similarity between arms. We consider similarity information in the setting of contextual bandits, a natural extension of the basic MAB problem where before each round an algorithm is given the context--a hint about the payoffs in this round. Contextual bandits are directly motivated by placing advertisements on web pages, one of the crucial problems in sponsored search. A particularly simple way to represent similarity information in the contextual bandit setting is via a similarity distance between the context-arm pairs which bounds from above the difference between the respective expected payoffs. Prior work on contextual bandits with similarity uses "uniform" partitions of the similarity space, so that each context-arm pair is approximated by the closest pair in the partition. Algorithms based on "uniform" partitions disregard the structure of the payoffs and the context arrivals, which is potentially wasteful. We present algorithms that are based on adaptive partitions, and take advantage of "benign" payoffs and context arrivals without sacrificing the worst-case performance. The central idea is to maintain a finer partition in high-payoff regions of the similarity space and in popular regions of the context space. Our results apply to several other settings, e.g., MAB with constrained temporal change (Slivkins and Upfal, 2008) and sleeping bandits (, 2008a). Multi-armed bandit problems are receiving a great deal of attention because they adequately formalize the exploration-exploitation trade-offs arising in several industrially relevant applications, such as online advertisement and, more generally, recommendation systems. In many cases, however, these applications have a strong social component, whose integration in the bandit algorithm could lead to a dramatic performance increase. For instance, we may want to serve content to a group of users by taking advantage of an underlying network of social relationships among them. In this paper, we introduce novel algorithmic approaches to the solution of such networked bandit problems. More specifically, we design and analyze a global strategy which allocates a bandit algorithm to each network node (user) and allows it to "share" signals (contexts and payoffs) with the neghboring nodes. We then derive two more scalable variants of this strategy based on different ways of clustering the graph nodes. We experimentally compare the algorithm and its variants to state-of-the-art methods for contextual bandits that do not use the relational information. Our experiments, carried out on synthetic and real-world datasets, show a marked increase in prediction performance obtained by exploiting the network structure. Multi-armed bandit problems are the predominant theoretical model of exploration-exploitation tradeoffs in learning, and they have countless applications ranging from medical trials, to communication networks, to Web search and advertising. In many of these application domains the learner may be constrained by one or more supply (or budget) limits, in addition to the customary limitation on the time horizon. The literature lacks a general model encompassing these sorts of problems. We introduce such a model, called "bandits with knapsacks", that combines aspects of stochastic integer programming with online learning. A distinctive feature of our problem, in comparison to the existing regret-minimization literature, is that the optimal policy for a given latent distribution may significantly outperform the policy that plays the optimal fixed arm. Consequently, achieving sub linear regret in the bandits-with-knapsacks problem is significantly more challenging than in conventional bandit problems. We present two algorithms whose reward is close to the information-theoretic optimum: one is based on a novel "balanced exploration" paradigm, while the other is a primal-dual algorithm that uses multiplicative updates. Further, we prove that the regret achieved by both algorithms is optimal up to polylogarithmic factors. We illustrate the generality of the problem by presenting applications in a number of different domains including electronic commerce, routing, and scheduling. As one example of a concrete application, we consider the problem of dynamic posted pricing with limited supply and obtain the first algorithm whose regret, with respect to the optimal dynamic policy, is sub linear in the supply. The restless bandit problem is one of the most well-studied generalizations of the celebrated stochastic multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem in decision theory. In its ultimate generality, the restless bandit problem is known to be PSPACE-Hard to approximate to any nontrivial factor, and little progress has been made on this problem despite its significance in modeling activity allocation under uncertainty. In this article, we consider the Feedback MAB problem, where the reward obtained by playing each of n independent arms varies according to an underlying on off Markov process whose exact state is only revealed when the arm is played. The goal is to design a policy for playing the arms in order to maximize the infinite horizon time average expected reward. This problem is also an instance of a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP), and is widely studied in wireless scheduling and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) routing. Unlike the stochastic MAB problem, the Feedback MAB problem does not admit to greedy index-based optimal policies. We develop a novel duality-based algorithmic technique that yields a surprisingly simple and intuitive (2+e)-approximate greedy policy to this problem. We show that both in terms of approximation factor and computational efficiency, our policy is closely related to the Whittle index, which is widely used for its simplicity and efficiency of computation. Subsequently we define a multi-state generalization, that we term Monotone bandits, which remains subclass of the restless bandit problem. We show that our policy remains a 2-approximation in this setting, and further, our technique is robust enough to incorporate various side-constraints such as blocking plays, switching costs, and even models where determining the state of an arm is a separate operation from playing it. Our technique is also of independent interest for other restless bandit problems, and we provide an example in nonpreemptive machine replenishment. Interestingly, in this case, our policy provides a constant factor guarantee, whereas the Whittle index is provably polynomially worse. By presenting the first O(1) approximations for nontrivial instances of restless bandits as well as of POMDPs, our work initiates the study of approximation algorithms in both these contexts. Contextual bandits are widely used in Internet services from news recommendation to advertising, and to Web search. Generalized linear models (logistical regression in particular) have demonstrated stronger performance than linear models in many applications where rewards are binary. However, most theoretical analyses on contextual bandits so far are on linear bandits. In this work, we propose an upper confidence bound based algorithm for generalized linear contextual bandits, which achieves an @math regret over @math rounds with @math dimensional feature vectors. This regret matches the minimax lower bound, up to logarithmic terms, and improves on the best previous result by a @math factor, assuming the number of arms is fixed. A key component in our analysis is to establish a new, sharp finite-sample confidence bound for maximum-likelihood estimates in generalized linear models, which may be of independent interest. We also analyze a simpler upper confidence bound algorithm, which is useful in practice, and prove it to have optimal regret for certain cases. In sequential decision problems in an unknown environment, the decision maker often faces a dilemma over whether to explore to discover more about the environment, or to exploit current knowledge. We address the exploration-exploitation dilemma in a general setting encompassing both standard and contextualised bandit problems. The contextual bandit problem has recently resurfaced in attempts to maximise click-through rates in web based applications, a task with significant commercial interest. In this article we consider an approach of Thompson (1933) which makes use of samples from the posterior distributions for the instantaneous value of each action. We extend the approach by introducing a new algorithm, Optimistic Bayesian Sampling (OBS), in which the probability of playing an action increases with the uncertainty in the estimate of the action value. This results in better directed exploratory behaviour. We prove that, under unrestrictive assumptions, both approaches result in optimal behaviour with respect to the average reward criterion of Yang and Zhu (2002). We implement OBS and measure its performance in simulated Bernoulli bandit and linear regression domains, and also when tested with the task of personalised news article recommendation on a Yahoo! Front Page Today Module data set. We find that OBS performs competitively when compared to recently proposed benchmark algorithms and outperforms Thompson's method throughout. Online advertising and product recommendation are important domains of applications for multi-armed bandit methods. In these fields, the reward that is immediately available is most often only a proxy for the actual outcome of interest, which we refer to as a conversion. For instance, in web advertising, clicks can be observed within a few seconds after an ad display but the corresponding sale –if any– will take hours, if not days to happen. This paper proposes and investigates a new stochas-tic multi-armed bandit model in the framework proposed by Chapelle (2014) –based on empirical studies in the field of web advertising– in which each action may trigger a future reward that will then happen with a stochas-tic delay. We assume that the probability of conversion associated with each action is unknown while the distribution of the conversion delay is known, distinguishing between the (idealized) case where the conversion events may be observed whatever their delay and the more realistic setting in which late conversions are censored. We provide performance lower bounds as well as two simple but efficient algorithms based on the UCB and KLUCB frameworks. The latter algorithm, which is preferable when conversion rates are low, is based on a Poissonization argument, of independent interest in other settings where aggregation of Bernoulli observations with different success probabilities is required. Motivated by the engineering problem of cellular coverage optimization, we propose a novel multiarmed bandit model called generalized global bandit. We develop a series of greedy algorithms that have the capability to handle nonmonotonic but decomposable reward functions, multidimensional global parameters, and switching costs. The proposed algorithms are rigorously analyzed under the multiarmed bandit framework, where we show that they achieve bounded regret, and hence, they are guaranteed to converge to the optimal arm in finite time. The algorithms are then applied to the cellular coverage optimization problem to achieve the optimal tradeoff between sufficient small cell coverage and limited macroleakage without prior knowledge of the deployment environment. The performance advantage of the new algorithms over existing bandits solutions is revealed analytically and further confirmed via numerical simulations. The key element behind the performance improvement is a more efficient “trial and error” mechanism, in which any trial will help improve the knowledge of all candidate power levels. This paper considers stochastic bandits with side observations, a model that accounts for both the exploration exploitation dilemma and relationships between arms. In this setting, after pulling an arm i, the decision maker also observes the rewards for some other actions related to i. We will see that this model is suited to content recommendation in social networks, where users' reactions may be endorsed or not by their friends. We provide efficient algorithms based on upper confidence bounds (UCBs) to leverage this additional information and derive new bounds improving on standard regret guarantees. We also evaluate these policies in the context of movie recommendation in social networks: experiments on real datasets show substantial learning rate speedups ranging from 2.2x to 14x on dense networks. Although many algorithms for the multi-armed bandit problem are well-understood theoretically, empirical confirmation of their effectiveness is generally scarce. This paper presents a thorough empirical study of the most popular multi-armed bandit algorithms. Three important observations can be made from our results. Firstly, simple heuristics such as epsilon-greedy and Boltzmann exploration outperform theoretically sound algorithms on most settings by a significant margin. Secondly, the performance of most algorithms varies dramatically with the parameters of the bandit problem. Our study identifies for each algorithm the settings where it performs well, and the settings where it performs poorly. Thirdly, the algorithms' performance relative each to other is affected only by the number of bandit arms and the variance of the rewards. This finding may guide the design of subsequent empirical evaluations. In the second part of the paper, we turn our attention to an important area of application of bandit algorithms: clinical trials. Although the design of clinical trials has been one of the principal practical problems motivating research on multi-armed bandits, bandit algorithms have never been evaluated as potential treatment allocation strategies. Using data from a real study, we simulate the outcome that a 2001-2002 clinical trial would have had if bandit algorithms had been used to allocate patients to treatments. We find that an adaptive trial would have successfully treated at least 50 more patients, while significantly reducing the number of adverse effects and increasing patient retention. At the end of the trial, the best treatment could have still been identified with a high level of statistical confidence. Our findings demonstrate that bandit algorithms are attractive alternatives to current adaptive treatment allocation strategies. We develop a learning principle and an efficient algorithm for batch learning from logged bandit feedback. This learning setting is ubiquitous in online systems (e.g., ad placement, web search, recommendation), where an algorithm makes a prediction (e.g., ad ranking) for a given input (e.g., query) and observes bandit feedback (e.g., user clicks on presented ads). We first address the counterfactual nature of the learning problem (, 2013) through propensity scoring. Next, we prove generalization error bounds that account for the variance of the propensity-weighted empirical risk estimator. In analogy to the Structural Risk Minimization principle of Wapnik and Tscherwonenkis (1979), these constructive bounds give rise to the Counterfactual Risk Minimization (CRM) principle. We show how CRM can be used to derive a new learning method--called Policy Optimizer for Exponential Models (POEM)--for learning stochastic linear rules for structured output prediction. We present a decomposition of the POEM objective that enables efficient stochastic gradient optimization. The effectiveness and efficiency of POEM is evaluated on several simulated multi-label classification problems, as well as on a real-world information retrieval problem. The empirical results show that the CRM objective implemented in POEM provides improved robustness and generalization performance compared to the state-of-the-art. We develop a learning principle and an efficient algorithm for batch learning from logged bandit feedback. This learning setting is ubiquitous in online systems (e.g., ad placement, web search, recommendation), where an algorithm makes a prediction (e.g., ad ranking) for a given input (e.g., query) and observes bandit feedback (e.g., user clicks on presented ads). We first address the counterfactual nature of the learning problem through propensity scoring. Next, we prove generalization error bounds that account for the variance of the propensity-weighted empirical risk estimator. These constructive bounds give rise to the Counterfactual Risk Minimization (CRM) principle. We show how CRM can be used to derive a new learning method -- called Policy Optimizer for Exponential Models (POEM) -- for learning stochastic linear rules for structured output prediction. We present a decomposition of the POEM objective that enables efficient stochastic gradient optimization. POEM is evaluated on several multi-label classification problems showing substantially improved robustness and generalization performance compared to the state-of-the-art. The multiarmed bandit is often used as an analogy for the tradeoff between exploration and exploitation in search problems. The classic problem involves allocating trials to the arms of a multiarmed slot machine to maximize the expected sum of rewards. We pose a new variation of the multiarmed bandit--the Max K-Armed Bandit--in which trials must be allocated among the arms to maximize the expected best single sample reward of the series of trials. Motivation for the Max K-Armed Bandit is the allocation of restarts among a set of multistart stochastic search algorithms. We present an analysis of this Max K-Armed Bandit showing under certain assumptions that the optimal strategy allocates trials to the observed best arm at a rate increasing double exponentially relative to the other arms. This motivates an exploration strategy that follows a Boltzmann distribution with an exponentially decaying temperature parameter. We compare this exploration policy to policies that allocate trials to the observed best arm at rates faster (and slower) than double exponentially. The results confirm, for two scheduling domains, that the double exponential increase in the rate of allocations to the observed best heuristic outperfonns the other approaches. We study contextual bandits with ancillary constraints on resources, which are common in real-world applications such as choosing ads or dynamic pricing of items. We design the first algorithm for solving these problems that handles constrained resources other than time, and improves over a trivial reduction to the non-contextual case. We consider very general settings for both contextual bandits (arbitrary policy sets, e.g. (UAI'11)) and bandits with resource constraints (bandits with knapsacks, (FOCS'13)), and prove a regret guarantee with near-optimal statistical properties. Motivated by online recommendation and advertising systems, we consider a causal model for stochastic contextual bandits with a latent low-dimensional confounder. In our model, there are @math observed contexts and @math arms of the bandit. The observed context influences the reward obtained through a latent confounder variable with cardinality @math ( @math ). The arm choice and the latent confounder causally determines the reward while the observed context is correlated with the confounder. Under this model, the @math mean reward matrix @math (for each context in @math and each arm in @math ) factorizes into non-negative factors @math ( @math ) and @math ( @math ). This insight enables us to propose an @math -greedy NMF-Bandit algorithm that designs a sequence of interventions (selecting specific arms), that achieves a balance between learning this low-dimensional structure and selecting the best arm to minimize regret. Our algorithm achieves a regret of @math at time @math , as compared to @math for conventional contextual bandits, assuming a constant gap between the best arm and the rest for each context. These guarantees are obtained under mild sufficiency conditions on the factors that are weaker versions of the well-known Statistical RIP condition. We further propose a class of generative models that satisfy our sufficient conditions, and derive a lower bound of @math . These are the first regret guarantees for online matrix completion with bandit feedback, when the rank is greater than one. We further compare the performance of our algorithm with the state of the art, on synthetic and real world data-sets. Contextual bandit algorithms have become popular for online recommendation systems such as Digg, Yahoo! Buzz, and news recommendation in general. Offline evaluation of the effectiveness of new algorithms in these applications is critical for protecting online user experiences but very challenging due to their "partial-label" nature. Common practice is to create a simulator which simulates the online environment for the problem at hand and then run an algorithm against this simulator. However, creating simulator itself is often difficult and modeling bias is usually unavoidably introduced. In this paper, we introduce a replay methodology for contextual bandit algorithm evaluation. Different from simulator-based approaches, our method is completely data-driven and very easy to adapt to different applications. More importantly, our method can provide provably unbiased evaluations. Our empirical results on a large-scale news article recommendation dataset collected from Yahoo! Front Page conform well with our theoretical results. Furthermore, comparisons between our offline replay and online bucket evaluation of several contextual bandit algorithms show accuracy and effectiveness of our offline evaluation method. Contextual bandit algorithms provide principled online learning solutions to find optimal trade-offs between exploration and exploitation with companion side-information. They have been extensively used in many important practical scenarios, such as display advertising and content recommendation. A common practice estimates the unknown bandit parameters pertaining to each user independently. This unfortunately ignores dependency among users and thus leads to suboptimal solutions, especially for the applications that have strong social components. In this paper, we develop a collaborative contextual bandit algorithm, in which the adjacency graph among users is leveraged to share context and payoffs among neighboring users while online updating. We rigorously prove an improved upper regret bound of the proposed collaborative bandit algorithm comparing to conventional independent bandit algorithms. Extensive experiments on both synthetic and three large-scale real-world datasets verified the improvement of our proposed algorithm against several state-of-the-art contextual bandit algorithms. Restless bandits model the exploration vs. exploitation trade-off in a changing (non-stationary) world. Restless bandits have been studied in both the context of continuously-changing (drifting) and change-point (sudden) restlessness. In this work, we study specific classes of drifting restless bandits selected for their relevance to modelling an online website optimization process. The contribution in this work is a simple, feasible weighted least squares technique capable of utilizing contextual arm parameters while considering the parameter space drifting non-stationary within reasonable bounds. We produce a reference implementation, then evaluate and compare its performance in several different true world states, finding experimentally that performance is robust to time drifting factors similar to those seen in many real world cases.