Estimating mutual information from i.i.d. samples drawn from an unknown joint density function is a basic statistical problem of broad interest with multitudinous applications. The most popular estimator is one proposed by Kraskov and St "ogbauer and Grassberger (KSG) in 2004, and is nonparametric and based on the distances of each sample to its @math nearest neighboring sample, where @math is a fixed small integer. Despite its widespread use (part of scientific software packages), theoretical properties of this estimator have been largely unexplored. In this paper we demonstrate that the estimator is consistent and also identify an upper bound on the rate of convergence of the bias as a function of number of samples. We argue that the superior performance benefits of the KSG estimator stems from a curious "correlation boosting" effect and build on this intuition to modify the KSG estimator in novel ways to construct a superior estimator. As a byproduct of our investigations, we obtain nearly tight rates of convergence of the @math error of the well known fixed @math nearest neighbor estimator of differential entropy by Kozachenko and Leonenko.
The basic estimation question studied in this paper takes a different hue depending on whether the underlying distribution is discrete or continuous. In the discrete setting, significant understanding of the minimax rate-optimal estimation of functionals, including entropy and mutual information, of an unknown probability mass function is attained via recent works @cite_5 @cite_48 @cite_39 @cite_45 @cite_13 . The continuous setting is significantly different, bringing to fore the interplay of geometry of the Euclidean space as well as the role of dimensionality of the domain in terms of estimating the information theoretic quantities; this setting is the focus of this paper. This fundamental question has been of longstanding interest in the theoretical statistics community where it is a canonical question of estimating a functional of the (unknown) density @cite_8 but also in the machine learning @cite_15 @cite_10 , information theory @cite_36 @cite_5 @cite_13 @cite_52 , and theoretical computer science @cite_39 @cite_43 @cite_7 communities. The popularity of mutual information and other information theoretic quantities comes from their wide use as basic features in several downstream applications @cite_28 @cite_9 @cite_4 @cite_57 .
@cite_4 @cite_7 @cite_8 @cite_36 @cite_48 @cite_10 @cite_28 @cite_9 @cite_52 @cite_39 @cite_57 @cite_43 @cite_45 @cite_5 @cite_15 @cite_13
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These lecture notes highlight the mathematical and computational structure relating to the formulation of, and development of algorithms for, the Bayesian approach to inverse problems in differential equations. This approach is fundamental in the quantification of uncertainty within applications in volving the blending of mathematical models with data. The finite dimensional situation is described first, along with some motivational examples. Then the development of probability measures on separable Banach space is undertaken, using a random series over an infinite set of functions to construct draws; these probability measures are used as priors in the Bayesian approach to inverse problems. Regularity of draws from the priors is studied in the natural Sobolev or Besov spaces implied by the choice of functions in the random series construction, and the Kolmogorov continuity theorem is used to extend regularity considerations to the space of Holder continuous functions. Bayes’ theorem is de rived in this prior setting, and here interpreted as finding conditions under which the posterior is absolutely continuous with respect to the prior, and determining a formula for the Radon-Nikodym derivative in terms of the likelihood of the data. Having established the form of the posterior, we then describe various properties common to it in the infinite dimensional setting. These properties include well-posedness, approximation theory, and the existence of maximum a posteriori estimators. We then describe measure-preserving dynamics, again on the infinite dimensional space, including Markov chain-Monte C arlo and sequential Monte Carlo methods, and measure-preserving reversible stochastic differential equations. By formulating the theory and algorithms on the underlying infinite dimensional space, we obtain a framework suitable for rigorous analysis of the accuracy of reconstructions, of computational complexity, as well as naturally constructing algorithms which perform well under mesh refinement, since they are inherently well-defined in infinite dimensions. We propose a general methodology for the construction and analysis of essentially minimax estimators for a wide class of functionals of finite dimensional parameters, and elaborate on the case of discrete distributions, where the support size @math is unknown and may be comparable with or even much larger than the number of observations @math . We treat the respective regions where the functional is nonsmooth and smooth separately. In the nonsmooth regime, we apply an unbiased estimator for the best polynomial approximation of the functional whereas, in the smooth regime, we apply a bias-corrected version of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE). We illustrate the merit of this approach by thoroughly analyzing the performance of the resulting schemes for estimating two important information measures: 1) the entropy @math and 2) @math . We obtain the minimax @math rates for estimating these functionals. In particular, we demonstrate that our estimator achieves the optimal sample complexity @math for entropy estimation. We also demonstrate that the sample complexity for estimating @math n S^ 1 S @math 1 , we show the minimax @math rate for estimating @math is @math for infinite support size, while the maximum @math rate for the MLE is @math . For all the above cases, the behavior of the minimax rate-optimal estimators with @math samples is essentially that of the MLE (plug-in rule) with @math samples, which we term “effective sample size enlargement.” We highlight the practical advantages of our schemes for the estimation of entropy and mutual information. We compare our performance with various existing approaches, and demonstrate that our approach reduces running time and boosts the accuracy. Moreover, we show that the minimax rate-optimal mutual information estimator yielded by our framework leads to significant performance boosts over the Chow–Liu algorithm in learning graphical models. The wide use of information measure estimation suggests that the insights and estimators obtained in this paper could be broadly applicable. We present some new results on the nonparametric estimation of entropy and mutual information. First, we use an exact local expansion of the entropy function to prove almost sure consistency and central limit theorems for three of the most commonly used discretized information estimators. The setup is related to Grenander's method of sieves and places no assumptions on the underlying probability measure generating the data. Second, we prove a converse to these consistency theorems, demonstrating that a misapplication of the most common estimation techniques leads to an arbitrarily poor estimate of the true information, even given unlimited data. This "inconsistency" theorem leads to an analytical approximation of the bias, valid in surprisingly small sample regimes and more accurate than the usual 1 N formula of Miller and Madow over a large region of parameter space. The two most practical implications of these results are negative: (1) information estimates in a certain data regime are likely contaminated by bias, even if "bias-corrected" estimators are used, and (2) confidence intervals calculated by standard techniques drastically underestimate the error of the most common estimation methods.Finally, we note a very useful connection between the bias of entropy estimators and a certain polynomial approximation problem. By casting bias calculation problems in this approximation theory framework, we obtain the best possible generalization of known asymptotic bias results. More interesting, this framework leads to an estimator with some nice properties: the estimator comes equipped with rigorous bounds on the maximum error over all possible underlying probability distributions, and this maximum error turns out to be surprisingly small. We demonstrate the application of this new estimator on both real and simulated data. We introduce a new approach to characterizing the unobserved portion of a distribution, which provides sublinear--sample estimators achieving arbitrarily small additive constant error for a class of properties that includes entropy and distribution support size. Additionally, we show new matching lower bounds. Together, this settles the longstanding question of the sample complexities of these estimation problems, up to constant factors. Our algorithm estimates these properties up to an arbitrarily small additive constant, using O(n log n) samples, where n is a bound on the support size, or in the case of estimating the support size, 1 n is a lower bound on the probability of any element of the domain. Previously, no explicit sublinear--sample algorithms for either of these problems were known. Our algorithm is also computationally extremely efficient, running in time linear in the number of samples used. In the second half of the paper, we provide a matching lower bound of Ω(n log n) samples for estimating entropy or distribution support size to within an additive constant. The previous lower-bounds on these sample complexities were n 2O(√log n). To show our lower bound, we prove two new and natural multivariate central limit theorems (CLTs); the first uses Stein's method to relate the sum of independent distributions to the multivariate Gaussian of corresponding mean and covariance, under the earthmover distance metric (also known as the Wasserstein metric). We leverage this central limit theorem to prove a stronger but more specific central limit theorem for "generalized multinomial" distributions---a large class of discrete distributions, parameterized by matrices, that represents sums of independent binomial or multinomial distributions, and describes many distributions encountered in computer science. Convergence here is in the strong sense of statistical distance, which immediately implies that any algorithm with input drawn from a generalized multinomial distribution behaves essentially as if the input were drawn from a discretized Gaussian with the same mean and covariance. Such tools in the multivariate setting are rare, and we hope this new tool will be of use to the community. We analyze the estimation of information theoretic measures of continuous random variables such as: differential entropy, mutual information or Kullback-Leibler divergence. The objective of this paper is two-fold. First, we prove that the information theoretic measure estimates using the k-nearest-neighbor density estimation with fixed k converge almost surely, even though the k-nearest-neighbor density estimation with fixed k does not converge to its true measure. Second, we show that the information theoretic measure estimates do not converge for k growing linearly with the number of samples. Nevertheless, these nonconvergent estimates can be used for solving the two-sample problem and assessing if two random variables are independent. We show that the two-sample and independence tests based on these nonconvergent estimates compare favorably with the maximum mean discrepancy test and the Hilbert Schmidt independence criterion. In most algorithmic applications which compare two distributions, information theoretic distances are more natural than standard l p norms. In this paper we design streaming and sublinear time property testing algorithms for entropy and various information theoretic distances. posed the problem of property testing with respect to the Jensen-Shannon distance. We present optimal algorithms for estimating bounded, symmetric f-divergences (including the Jensen-Shannon divergence and the Hellinger distance) between distributions in various property testing frameworks. Along the way, we close a (log n) H gap between the upper and lower bounds for estimating entropy H, yielding an optimal algorithm over all values of the entropy. In a data stream setting (sublinear space), we give the first algorithm for estimating the entropy of a distribution. Our algorithm runs in polylogarithmic space and yields an asymptotic constant factor approximation scheme. An integral part of the algorithm is an interesting use of an F 0 (the number of distinct elements in a set) estimation algorithm; we also provide other results along the space time approximation tradeoff curve.Our results have interesting structural implications that connect sublinear time and space constrained algorithms. The mediating model is the random order streaming model, which assumes the input is a random permutation of a multiset and was first considered by Munro and Paterson in 1980. We show that any property testing algorithm in the combined oracle model for calculating a permutation invariant functions can be simulated in the random order model in a single pass. This addresses a question raised by regarding the relationship between property testing and stream algorithms. Further, we give a polylog-space PTAS for estimating the entropy of a one pass random order stream. This bound cannot be achieved in the combined oracle (generalized property testing) model. We introduce and investigate a new model of learning probability distributions from independent draws. Our model is inspired by the popular Probably Approximately Correct (PAC) model for learning boolean functions from labeled examples [24], in the sense that we emphasize efficient and approximate learning, and we study the learnability of restricted classes of target distributions. The dist ribut ion classes we examine are often defined by some simple computational mechanism for transforming a truly random string of input bits (which is not visible to the learning algorithm) into the stochastic observation (output) seen by the learning algorithm. In this paper, we concentrate on discrete distributions over O, I n. The problem of inferring an approximation to an unknown probability distribution on the basis of independent draws has a long and complex history in the pattern recognition and statistics literature. For instance, the problem of estimating the parameters of a Gaussian density in highdimensional space is one of the most studied statistical problems. Distribution learning problems have often been investigated in the context of unsupervised learning, in which a linear mixture of two or more distributions is generating the observations, and the final goal is not to model the distributions themselves, but to predict from which distribution each observation was drawn. Data clustering methods are a common tool here. There is also a large literature on nonpararnetric density estimation, in which no assumptions are made on the unknown target density. Nearest-neighbor approaches to the unsupervised learning problem often arise in the nonparametric setting. While we obviously cannot do justice to these areas here, the books of Duda and Hart [9] and Vapnik [25] provide excellent overviews and introductions to the pattern recognition work, as well as many pointers for further reading. See also Izenman’s recent survey article [16]. Roughly speaking, our work departs from the traditional statistical and pattern recognition approaches in two ways. First, we place explicit emphasis on the comput ationrd complexity of distribution learning. It seems fair to say that while previous research has provided an excellent understanding of the information-theoretic issues involved in dis- Let f be a random Boolean formula that is an instance of 3-SAT. We consider the problem of computing the least real number k such that if the ratio of the number of clauses over the number of variables of f strictly exceeds k , then f is almost certainly unsatisfiable. By a well-known and more or less straightforward argument, it can be shown that kF5.191. This upper bound was improved by to 4.758 by first providing new improved bounds for the occupancy problem. There is strong experimental evidence that the value of k is around 4.2. In this work, we define, in terms of the random formula f, a decreasing sequence of random variables such that, if the expected value of any one of them converges to zero, then f is almost certainly unsatisfiable. By letting the expected value of the first term of the sequence converge to zero, we obtain, by simple and elementary computations, an upper bound for k equal to 4.667. From the expected value of the second term of the sequence, we get the value 4.601q . In general, by letting the U This work was performed while the first author was visiting the School of Computer Science, Carleton Ž University, and was partially supported by NSERC Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council . of Canada , and by a grant from the University of Patras for sabbatical leaves. The second and third Ž authors were supported in part by grants from NSERC Natural Sciences and Engineering Research . Council of Canada . During the last stages of this research, the first and last authors were also partially Ž . supported by EU ESPRIT Long-Term Research Project ALCOM-IT Project No. 20244 . †An extended abstract of this paper was published in the Proceedings of the Fourth Annual European Ž Symposium on Algorithms, ESA’96, September 25]27, 1996, Barcelona, Spain Springer-Verlag, LNCS, . pp. 27]38 . That extended abstract was coauthored by the first three authors of the present paper. Correspondence to: L. M. Kirousis Q 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. CCC 1042-9832r98r030253-17 253 We present simple and computationally efficient nonparametric estimators of R 'enyi entropy and mutual information based on an i.i.d. sample drawn from an unknown, absolutely continuous distribution over @math . The estimators are calculated as the sum of @math -th powers of the Euclidean lengths of the edges of the generalized nearest-neighbor' graph of the sample and the empirical copula of the sample respectively. For the first time, we prove the almost sure consistency of these estimators and upper bounds on their rates of convergence, the latter of which under the assumption that the density underlying the sample is Lipschitz continuous. Experiments demonstrate their usefulness in independent subspace analysis. This paper establishes information-theoretic limits for estimating a finite-field low-rank matrix given random linear measurements of it. These linear measurements are obtained by taking inner products of the low-rank matrix with random sensing matrices. Necessary and sufficient conditions on the number of measurements required are provided. It is shown that these conditions are sharp and the minimum-rank decoder is asymptotically optimal. The reliability function of this decoder is also derived by appealing to de Caen's lower bound on the probability of a union. The sufficient condition also holds when the sensing matrices are sparse-a scenario that may be amenable to efficient decoding. More precisely, it is shown that if the n × n-sensing matrices contain, on average, Ω(nlog n) entries, the number of measurements required is the same as that when the sensing matrices are dense and contain entries drawn uniformly at random from the field. Analogies are drawn between the aforementioned results and rank-metric codes in the coding theory literature. In fact, we are also strongly motivated by understanding when minimum rank distance decoding of random rank-metric codes succeeds. To this end, we derive minimum distance properties of equiprobable and sparse rank-metric codes. These distance properties provide a precise geometric interpretation of the fact that the sparse ensemble requires as few measurements as the dense one. With the dramatic growth in the number of application domains that generate probabilistic, noisy and uncertain data, there has been an increasing interest in designing algorithms for geometric or combinatorial optimization problems over such data. In this paper, we initiate the study of constructing epsilon-kernel coresets for uncertain points. We consider uncertainty in the existential model where each point's location is fixed but only occurs with a certain probability, and the locational model where each point has a probability distribution describing its location. An epsilon-kernel coreset approximates the width of a point set in any direction. We consider approximating the expected width (an epsilon-EXP-KERNEL), as well as the probability distribution on the width (an (epsilon, tau)-QUANT-KERNEL) for any direction. We show that there exists a set of O(epsilon^ -(d-1) 2 ) deterministic points which approximate the expected width under the existential and locational models, and we provide efficient algorithms for constructing such coresets. We show, however, it is not always possible to find a subset of the original uncertain points which provides such an approximation. However, if the existential probability of each point is lower bounded by a constant, an epsilon-EXP-KERNEL is still possible. We also provide efficient algorithms for construct an (epsilon, tau)-QUANT-KERNEL coreset in nearly linear time. Our techniques utilize or connect to several important notions in probability and geometry, such as Kolmogorov distances, VC uniform convergence and Tukey depth, and may be useful in other geometric optimization problem in stochastic settings. Finally, combining with known techniques, we show a few applications to approximating the extent of uncertain functions, maintaining extent measures for stochastic moving points and some shape fitting problems under uncertainty. We consider in this paper the problem of sampling a high-dimensional probability distribution @math having a density with respect to the Lebesgue measure on @math , known up to a normalization constant @math . Such problem naturally occurs for example in Bayesian inference and machine learning. Under the assumption that @math is continuously differentiable, @math is globally Lipschitz and @math is strongly convex, we obtain non-asymptotic bounds for the convergence to stationarity in Wasserstein distance of order @math and total variation distance of the sampling method based on the Euler discretization of the Langevin stochastic differential equation, for both constant and decreasing step sizes. The dependence on the dimension of the state space of these bounds is explicit. The convergence of an appropriately weighted empirical measure is also investigated and bounds for the mean square error and exponential deviation inequality are reported for functions which are measurable and bounded. An illustration to Bayesian inference for binary regression is presented to support our claims. We consider estimation of network cardinality by distributed anonymous strategies relying on statistical inference methods. In particular, we focus on the relative Mean Square Error (MSE) of Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimators based on either the maximum or the average of M-dimensional vectors randomly generated at each node. In the case of continuous probability distributions, we show that the relative MSE achieved by the max-based strategy decreases as 1 M, independently of the used distribution, while that of the average-based estimator scales approximately as 2 M. We then introduce a novel strategy based on the average of M-dimensional vectors locally generated from Bernoulli random variables. In this case, the ML estimator, which is the Least Common Multiple (LCM) of the denominators of the irreducible fractions corresponding to the M elements of the average vector, leads to an MSE which goes exponentially to zero as M increases. We then discuss the effects of finite-precision arithmetics in practical dynamic implementations. Numerical experiments reveal that the MSE of the strategy based on Bernoulli trials is two order of magnitude smaller than that based on continuous random variables, at a price of one order of magnitude slower convergence time. We study the metric properties of finite subsets of L1. The analysis of such metrics is central to a number of important algorithmic problems involving the cut structure of weighted graphs, including the Sparsest Cut Problem, one of the most compelling open problems in the field of approximation algorithms. Additionally, many open questions in geometric non-linear functional analysis involve the properties of finite subsets of L1.We present some new observations concerning the relation of L1 to dimension, topology, and Euclidean distortion. We show that every n-point subset of L1 embeds into L2 with average distortion O(√log n), yielding the first evidence that the conjectured worst-case bound of O(√log n) is valid. We also address the issue of dimension reduction in Lp for p ∈ (1, 2). We resolve a question left open by M. Charikar and A. Sahai [Dimension reduction in the l1 norm, in: Proceedings of the 43rd Annual IEEE Conference on Foundations of Computer Science, ACM, 2002, pp. 251-260] concerning the impossibility of dimension reduction with a linear map in the above cases, and we show that a natural variant of the recent example of Brinkman and Charikar [On the impossibility of dimension reduction in l1, in: Proceedings of the 44th Annual IEEE Conference on Foundations of Computer Science, ACM, 2003, pp. 514-523], cannot be used to prove a lower bound for the non-linear case. This is acomplished by exhibiting constant-distortion embeddings of snowflaked planar metrics into Euclidean space. The problem of maximum-likelihood (ML) estimation of discrete tree-structured distributions is considered. Chow and Liu established that ML-estimation reduces to the construction of a maximum-weight spanning tree using the empirical mutual information quantities as the edge weights. Using the theory of large-deviations, we analyze the exponent associated with the error probability of the event that the ML-estimate of the Markov tree structure differs from the true tree structure, given a set of independently drawn samples. By exploiting the fact that the output of ML-estimation is a tree, we establish that the error exponent is equal to the exponential rate of decay of a single dominant crossover event. We prove that in this dominant crossover event, a non-neighbor node pair replaces a true edge of the distribution that is along the path of edges in the true tree graph connecting the nodes in the non-neighbor pair. Using ideas from Euclidean information theory, we then analyze the scenario of ML-estimation in the very noisy learning regime and show that the error exponent can be approximated as a ratio, which is interpreted as the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) for learning tree distributions. We show via numerical experiments that in this regime, our SNR approximation is accurate. Determining the structure of dependencies among a set of variables is a common task in many signal and image processing applications, including multitarget tracking and computer vision. In this paper, we present an information-theoretic, machine learning approach to problems of this type. We cast this problem as a hypothesis test between factorizations of variables into mutually independent subsets. We show that the likelihood ratio can be written as sums of two sets of Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence terms. The first set captures the structure of the statistical dependencies within each hypothesis, whereas the second set measures the details of model differences between hypotheses. We then consider the case when the signal prior models are unknown, so that the distributions of interest must be estimated directly from data, showing that the second set of terms is (asymptotically) negligible and quantifying the loss in hypothesis separability when the models are completely unknown. We demonstrate the utility of nonparametric estimation methods for such problems, providing a general framework for determining and distinguishing between dependency structures in highly uncertain environments. Additionally, we develop a machine learning approach for estimating lower bounds on KL divergence and mutual information from samples of high-dimensional random variables for which direct density estimation is infeasible. We present empirical results in the context of three prototypical applications: association of signals generated by sources possessing harmonic behavior, scene correspondence using video imagery, and detection of coherent behavior among sets of moving objects. This paper explores a class of empirical Bayes methods for level-dependent threshold selection in wavelet shrinkage. The prior considered for each wavelet coefficient is a mixture of an atom of probability at zero and a heavy-tailed density. The mixing weight, or sparsity parameter, for each level of the transform is chosen by marginal maximum likelihood. If estimation is carried out using the posterior median, this is a random thresholding procedure; the estimation can also be carried out using other thresholding rules with the same threshold. Details of the calculations needed for implementing the procedure are included. In practice, the estimates are quick to compute and there is software available. Simulations on the standard model functions show excellent performance, and applications to data drawn from various fields of application are used to explore the practical performance of the approach. By using a general result on the risk of the corresponding marginal maximum likelihood approach for a single sequence, overall bounds on the risk of the method are found subject to membership of the unknown function in one of a wide range of Besov classes, covering also the case of f of bounded variation. The rates obtained are optimal for any value of the parameter p in (0, ∞], simultaneously for a wide range of loss functions, each dominating the Lq norm of the σth derivative, with σ ≥ 0 and 0 < q ≤ 2. Attention is paid to the distinction between sampling the unknown function within white noise and sampling at discrete points, and between placing constraints on the function itself and on the discrete wavelet transform of its sequence of values at the observation points. Results for all relevant combinations of these scenarios are obtained. In some cases a key feature of the theory is a particular boundary-corrected wavelet basis, details of which are discussed. Overall, the approach described seems so far unique in combining the properties of fast computation, good theoretical properties and good performance in simulations and in practice. A key feature appears to be that the estimate of sparsity adapts to three different zones of estimation, first where the signal is not sparse enough for thresholding to be of benefit, second where an appropriately chosen threshold results in substantially improved estimation, and third where the signal is so sparse that the zero estimate gives the optimum accuracy rate. The advent of data science has spurred interest in estimating properties of distributions over large alphabets. Fundamental symmetric properties such as support size, support coverage, entropy, and proximity to uniformity, received most attention, with each property estimated using a different technique and often intricate analysis tools. We prove that for all these properties, a single, simple, plug-in estimator---profile maximum likelihood (PML)---performs as well as the best specialized techniques. This raises the possibility that PML may optimally estimate many other symmetric properties. In this paper, we formally present a novel estimation method, referred to as the Stochastic Learning Weak Estimator (SLWE), which yields the estimate of the parameters of a binomial distribution, where the convergence of the estimate is weak, i.e. with regard to the first and second moments. The estimation is based on the principles of stochastic learning. The mean of the final estimate is independent of the scheme's learning coefficient, @l, and both the variance of the final distribution and the speed decrease with @l. Similar results are true for the multinomial case, except that the equations transform from being of a scalar type to be of a vector type. Amazingly enough, the speed of the latter only depends on the same parameter, @l, which turns out to be the only non-unity eigenvalue of the underlying stochastic matrix that determines the time-dependence of the estimates. An empirical analysis on synthetic data shows the advantages of the scheme for non-stationary distributions. The paper also briefly reports (without detailed explanation) conclusive results that demonstrate the superiority of SLWE in pattern-recognition-based data compression, where the underlying data distribution is non-stationary. Finally, and more importantly, the paper includes the results of two pattern recognition exercises, the first of which involves artificial data, and the second which involves the recognition of the types of data that are present in news reports of the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC). The superiority of the SLWE in both these cases is demonstrated. There is growing interest in algorithms for processing and querying continuous data streams (i.e., data seen only once in a fixed order) with limited memory resources. In its most general form, a data stream is actually an update stream, i.e., comprising data-item deletions as well as insertions. Such massive update streams arise naturally in several application domains (e.g., monitoring of large IP network installations or processing of retail-chain transactions). Estimating the cardinality of set expressions defined over several (possibly distributed) update streams is perhaps one of the most fundamental query classes of interest; as an example, such a query may ask “what is the number of distinct IP source addresses seen in passing packets from both router R1 and R 2 but not router R3?”. Earlier work only addressed very restricted forms of this problem, focusing solely on the special case of insert-only streams and specific operators (e.g., union). In this paper, we propose the first space-efficient algorithmic solution for estimating the cardinality of full-fledged set expressions over general update streams. Our estimation algorithms are probabilistic in nature and rely on a novel, hash-based synopsis data structure, termed ”2-level hash sketch”. We demonstrate how our 2-level hash sketch synopses can be used to provide low-error, high-confidence estimates for the cardinality of set expressions (including operators such as set union, intersection, and difference) over continuous update streams, using only space that is significantly sublinear in the sizes of the streaming input (multi-)sets. Furthermore, our estimators never require rescanning or resampling of past stream items, regardless of the number of deletions in the stream. We also present lower bounds for the problem, demonstrating that the space usage of our estimation algorithms is within small factors of the optimal. Finally, we propose an optimized, time-efficient stream synopsis (based on 2-level hash sketches) that provides similar, strong accuracy-space guarantees while requiring only guaranteed logarithmic maintenance time per update, thus making our methods applicable for truly rapid-rate data streams. Our results from an empirical study of our synopsis and estimation techniques verify the effectiveness of our approach.