This paper presents the recurrent estimation of distributions (RED) for modeling real-valued data in a semiparametric fashion. RED models make two novel uses of recurrent neural networks (RNNs) for density estimation of general real-valued data. First, RNNs are used to transform input covariates into a latent space to better capture conditional dependencies in inputs. After, an RNN is used to compute the conditional distributions of the latent covariates. The resulting model is efficient to train, compute, and sample from, whilst producing normalized pdfs. The effectiveness of RED is shown via several real-world data experiments. Our results show that RED models achieve a lower held-out negative log-likelihood than other neural network approaches across multiple dataset sizes and dimensionalities. Further context of the efficacy of RED is provided by considering anomaly detection tasks, where we also observe better performance over alternative models.
NICE models assume that data is drawn from a latent independent Gaussian space and transformed @cite_19 . The transformation uses several additive coupling'' shifting transformations on the second half of dimensions, using the first half of dimensions. The full transformation is the result of stacking several of these additive coupling layers together followed by a final rescaling operation. The resulting composition of these transformation yields a simple determinant of the Jacobian.
@cite_19
1583912456 2096198554 1907927509 2094248329 2166063021 2030656756 1993882792 2073587810 2169779569 2949485285 2124609748 2107636931 2190195640 2122189848 2470207857 2139122061 236111108 88434223 2158038039 2134477639
We propose a deep learning framework for modeling complex high-dimensional densities called Non-linear Independent Component Estimation (NICE). It is based on the idea that a good representation is one in which the data has a distribution that is easy to model. For this purpose, a non-linear deterministic transformation of the data is learned that maps it to a latent space so as to make the transformed data conform to a factorized distribution, i.e., resulting in independent latent variables. We parametrize this transformation so that computing the Jacobian determinant and inverse transform is trivial, yet we maintain the ability to learn complex non-linear transformations, via a composition of simple building blocks, each based on a deep neural network. The training criterion is simply the exact log-likelihood, which is tractable. Unbiased ancestral sampling is also easy. We show that this approach yields good generative models on four image datasets and can be used for inpainting. In previous work on "transformed mixtures of Gaussians" and "transformed hidden Markov models", we showed how the EM algorithm in a discrete latent variable model can be used to jointly normalize data (e.g., center images, pitch-normalize spectrograms) and learn a mixture model of the normalized data. The only input to the algorithm is the data, a list of possible transformations, and the number of clusters to find. The main criticism of this work was that the exhaustive computation of the posterior probabilities over transformations would make scaling up to large feature vectors and large sets of transformations intractable. Here, we describe how a tremendous speed-up is acheived through the use of a variational technique for decoupling transformations, and a fast Fourier transform method for computing posterior probabilities. For N × N images, learning C clusters under N rotations, N scales, N x-translations and N y-translations takes only (C + 2 log N)N2 scalar operations per iteration. In contrast, the original algorithm takes CN6 operations to account for these transformations. We give results on learning a 4-component mixture model from a video sequence with frames of size 320×240. The model accounts for 360 rotations and 76,800 translations. Each iteration of EM takes only 10 seconds per frame in MATLAB, which is over 5 million times faster than the original algorithm. In recent years analysis of complexity of learning Gaussian mixture models from sampled data has received significant attention in computational machine learning and theory communities. In this paper we present the first result showing that polynomial time learning of multidimensional Gaussian Mixture distributions is possible when the separation between the component means is arbitrarily small. Specifically, we present an algorithm for learning the parameters of a mixture of k identical spherical Gaussians in n-dimensional space with an arbitrarily small separation between the components, which is polynomial in dimension, inverse component separation and other input parameters for a fixed number of components k. The algorithm uses a projection to k dimensions and then a reduction to the 1-dimensional case. It relies on a theoretical analysis showing that two 1-dimensional mixtures whose densities are close in the L norm must have similar means and mixing coefficients. To produce the necessary lower bound for the L norm in terms of the distances between the corresponding means, we analyze the behavior of the Fourier transform of a mixture of Gaussians in one dimension around the origin, which turns out to be closely related to the properties of the Vandermonde matrix obtained from the component means. Analysis of minors of the Vandermonde matrix together with basic function approximation results allows us to provide a lower bound for the norm of the mixture in the Fourier domain and hence a bound in the original space. Additionally, we present a separate argument for reconstructing variance. A hierarchical Bayes Gaussian Mixture Model (HBGMM) with adaptive sparsity is proposed.We impose our hierarchical Bayes prior on the entries of precision matrices in GMM to encourage sparsity.Our adaptive sparsity can reduce the dimensionality of the parameters in GMM to be estimated.Our HBGMM method does not involve any hyperparameters to be estimated, i.e., it is hyperparameter-free. Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) has been widely used in statistics for its great flexibility. However, parameter estimation for GMM with high dimensionality is a challenge because of the large number of parameters and the lack of observation data. In this paper, we propose an effective method named hierarchical Bayes based Adaptive Sparsity in Gaussian Mixture Model (ASGMM) to estimate the parameters in a GMM by incorporating a two-layer hierarchical Bayes based adaptive sparsity prior. The prior we impose on the precision matrices can encourage sparsity and hence reduce the dimensionality of the parameters to be estimated. In contrast to the l 1 -norm penalty or Laplace prior, our approach does not involve any hyperparameters that must be tuned, and the sparsity adapts to the observation data. The proposed method is achieved by three steps: first, we formulate an adaptive hierarchical Bayes model of the precision matrices in the GMM with a Jeffrey's noninformative hyperprior, which expresses scale-invariance and, more importantly, is hyperparameter-free and unbiased. Second, we perform a Cholesky decomposition on the precision matrices to impose the positive definite property. Finally, we exploit the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm to obtain the final estimated parameters in the GMM. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world datasets demonstrate that ASGMM cannot only adapt the sparsity of high-dimensional data with small estimated error, but also achieve better clustering performance comparing with several classical methods. This paper introduces Gaussian Process Dynamical Models (GPDM) for nonlinear time series analysis. A GPDM comprises a low-dimensional latent space with associated dynamics, and a map from the latent space to an observation space. We marginalize out the model parameters in closed-form, using Gaussian Process (GP) priors for both the dynamics and the observation mappings. This results in a nonparametric model for dynamical systems that accounts for uncertainty in the model. We demonstrate the approach on human motion capture data in which each pose is 62-dimensional. Despite the use of small data sets, the GPDM learns an effective representation of the nonlinear dynamics in these spaces. Webpage: http: www.dgp.toronto.edu jmwang gpdm In this paper, we propose a Gaussian process (GP) model for analysis of nonlinear time series. Formulation of our model is based on the consideration that the observed data are functions of latent variables, with the associated mapping between observations and latent representations modeled through GP priors. In addition, to capture the temporal dynamics in the modeled data, we assume that subsequent latent representations depend on each other on the basis of a hidden Markov prior imposed over them. Derivation of our model is performed by marginalizing out the model parameters in closed form using GP priors for observation mappings, and appropriate stick-breaking priors for the latent variable (Markovian) dynamics. This way, we eventually obtain a nonparametric Bayesian model for dynamical systems that accounts for uncertainty in the modeled data. We provide efficient inference algorithms for our model on the basis of a truncated variational Bayesian approximation. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach considering a number of applications dealing with real-world data, and compare it with the related state-of-the-art approaches. Gaussian mixture models are currently the dominant technique for modeling the emission distribution of hidden Markov models for speech recognition. We show that better phone recognition on the TIMIT dataset can be achieved by replacing Gaussian mixture models by deep neural networks that contain many layers of features and a very large number of parameters. These networks are first pre-trained as a multi-layer generative model of a window of spectral feature vectors without making use of any discriminative information. Once the generative pre-training has designed the features, we perform discriminative fine-tuning using backpropagation to adjust the features slightly to make them better at predicting a probability distribution over the states of monophone hidden Markov models. The representation of a knowledge graph (KG) in a latent space recently has attracted more and more attention. To this end, some proposed models (e.g., TransE) embed entities and relations of a KG into a "point" vector space by optimizing a global loss function which ensures the scores of positive triplets are higher than negative ones. We notice that these models always regard all entities and relations in a same manner and ignore their (un)certainties. In fact, different entities and relations may contain different certainties, which makes identical certainty insufficient for modeling. Therefore, this paper switches to density-based embedding and propose KG2E for explicitly modeling the certainty of entities and relations, which learn the representations of KGs in the space of multi-dimensional Gaussian distributions. Each entity relation is represented by a Gaussian distribution, where the mean denotes its position and the covariance (currently with diagonal covariance) can properly represent its certainty. In addition, compared with the symmetric measures used in point-based methods, we employ the KL-divergence for scoring triplets, which is a natural asymmetry function for effectively modeling multiple types of relations. We have conducted extensive experiments on link prediction and triplet classification with multiple benchmark datasets (WordNet and Freebase). Our experimental results demonstrate that our method can effectively model the (un)certainties of entities and relations in a KG, and it significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods (including TransH and TransR). In this paper we introduce a new underlying probabilistic model for principal component analysis (PCA). Our formulation interprets PCA as a particular Gaussian process prior on a mapping from a latent space to the observed data-space. We show that if the prior's covariance function constrains the mappings to be linear the model is equivalent to PCA, we then extend the model by considering less restrictive covariance functions which allow non-linear mappings. This more general Gaussian process latent variable model (GPLVM) is then evaluated as an approach to the visualisation of high dimensional data for three different data-sets. Additionally our non-linear algorithm can be further kernelised leading to 'twin kernel PCA' in which a mapping between feature spaces occurs. This paper proves that an "old dog", namely -- the classical Johnson-Lindenstrauss transform, "performs new tricks" -- it gives a novel way of preserving differential privacy. We show that if we take two databases, @math and @math , such that (i) @math is a rank-1 matrix of bounded norm and (ii) all singular values of @math and @math are sufficiently large, then multiplying either @math or @math with a vector of iid normal Gaussians yields two statistically close distributions in the sense of differential privacy. Furthermore, a small, deterministic and alteration of the input is enough to assert that all singular values of @math are large. We apply the Johnson-Lindenstrauss transform to the task of approximating cut-queries: the number of edges crossing a @math -cut in a graph. We show that the JL transform allows us to that preserves edge differential privacy (where two graphs are neighbors if they differ on a single edge) while adding only @math random noise to any given query (w.h.p). Comparing the additive noise of our algorithm to existing algorithms for answering cut-queries in a differentially private manner, we outperform all others on small cuts ( @math ). We also apply our technique to the task of estimating the variance of a given matrix in any given direction. The JL transform allows us to that preserves differential privacy w.r.t bounded changes (each row in the matrix can change by at most a norm-1 vector) while adding random noise of magnitude independent of the size of the matrix (w.h.p). In contrast, existing algorithms introduce an error which depends on the matrix dimensions. We introduce Gaussian process dynamical models (GPDMs) for nonlinear time series analysis, with applications to learning models of human pose and motion from high-dimensional motion capture data. A GPDM is a latent variable model. It comprises a low-dimensional latent space with associated dynamics, as well as a map from the latent space to an observation space. We marginalize out the model parameters in closed form by using Gaussian process priors for both the dynamical and the observation mappings. This results in a nonparametric model for dynamical systems that accounts for uncertainty in the model. We demonstrate the approach and compare four learning algorithms on human motion capture data, in which each pose is 50-dimensional. Despite the use of small data sets, the GPDM learns an effective representation of the nonlinear dynamics in these spaces. Latent variable models represent the probability density of data in a space of several dimensions in terms of a smaller number of latent, or hidden, variables. A familiar example is factor analysis which is based on a linear transformations between the latent space and the data space. In this paper we introduce a form of non-linear latent variable model called the Generative Topographic Mapping, for which the parameters of the model can be determined using the EM algorithm. GTM provides a principled alternative to the widely used Self-Organizing Map (SOM) of Kohonen (1982), and overcomes most of the significant limitations of the SOM. We demonstrate the performance of the GTM algorithm on a toy problem and on simulated data from flow diagnostics for a multi-phase oil pipeline. It is well documented that natural images are compressible in wavelet bases and tend to exhibit fractal properties. In this paper, we investigate statistical models that mimic these behaviors. We then use our models to make predictions on the statistics of the wavelet coefficients. Following an innovation modeling approach, we identify a general class of finite-variance self-similar sparse random processes. We first prove that spatially dilated versions of self-similar sparse processes are asymptotically Gaussian as the dilation factor increases. Based on this fundamental result, we show that the coarse-scale wavelet coefficients of these processes are also asymptotically Gaussian, provided the wavelet has enough vanishing moments. Moreover, we quantify the degree of Gaussianity by deriving the theoretical evolution of the kurtosis of the wavelet coefficients across scales. Finally, we apply our analysis to one- and two-dimensional signals, including natural images, and show that the wavelet coefficients ... We describe a latent variable model for supervised dimensionality reduction and distance metric learning. The model discovers linear projections of high dimensional data that shrink the distance between similarly labeled inputs and expand the distance between differently labeled ones. The model's continuous latent variables locate pairs of examples in a latent space of lower dimensionality. The model differs significantly from classical factor analysis in that the posterior distribution over these latent variables is not always multivariate Gaussian. Nevertheless we show that inference is completely tractable and derive an Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for parameter estimation. We also compare the model to other approaches in distance metric learning. The model's main advantage is its simplicity: at each iteration of the EM algorithm, the distance metric is re-estimated by solving an unconstrained least-squares problem. Experiments show that these simple updates are highly effective. Abstract We describe a method for removing the effect of confounders to reconstruct a latent quantity of interest. The method, referred to as “half-sibling regression,” is inspired by recent work in causal inference using additive noise models. We provide a theoretical justification, discussing both independent and identically distributed as well as time series data, respectively, and illustrate the potential of the method in a challenging astronomy application. In this paper we describe a technique that allows the extraction of multiple local shift-invariant features from analysis of non-negative data of arbitrary dimensionality. Our approach employs a probabilistic latent variable model with sparsity constraints. We demonstrate its utility by performing feature extraction in a variety of domains ranging from audio to images and video. We present a novel probabilistic approach for fitting a statistical model to an image. A 3D Morphable Model (3DMM) of faces is interpreted as a generative (Top-Down) Bayesian model. Random Forests are used as noisy detectors (Bottom-Up) for the face and facial landmark positions. The Top-Down and Bottom-Up parts are then combined using a Data-Driven Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method (DDMCMC). As core of the integration, we use the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm which has two main advantages. First, the algorithm can handle unreliable detections and therefore does not need the detectors to take an early and possible wrong hard decision before fitting. Second, it is open for integration of various cues to guide the fitting process. Based on the proposed approach, we implemented a completely automatic, pose and illumination invariant face recognition application. We are able to train and test the building blocks of our application on different databases. The system is evaluated on the Multi-PIE database and reaches state of the art performance. An arbitrary rigid transformation in SE(3) can be separated into two parts, namely, a translation and a rigid rotation. This technical report reviews, under a unifying viewpoint, three common alternatives to representing the rotation part: sets of three (yaw-pitch-roll) Euler angles, orthogonal rotation matrices from SO(3) and quaternions. It will be described: (i) the equivalence between these representations and the formulas for transforming one to each other (in all cases considering the translational and rotational parts as a whole), (ii) how to compose poses with poses and poses with points in each representation and (iii) how the uncertainty of the poses (when modeled as Gaussian distributions) is affected by these transformations and compositions. Some brief notes are also given about the Jacobians required to implement least-squares optimization on manifolds, an very promising approach in recent engineering literature. The text reflects which MRPT C++ library1 functions implement each of the described algorithms. All the implementations have been thoroughly validated by means of unit testing and numerical estimation of the Jacobians. http: www.mrpt.org A tutorial on SE(3) transformation parameterizations and on-manifold optimization MAPIR Group Technical report #012010 Dpto. de Ingenieŕia de Sistemas y Automatica http: mapir.isa.uma.es History of document versions: • Version 5: Fixed a typo in Eq. 9.19 (21 Oct 2014) (Thanks to Tanner Schmidt for reporting) • Version 4: Added formulas for the Jacobian of the SO(3) logarithm map, in §10.3.2 (9 May 2013) • Version 3: Added the explicit formulas for the logarithm map of SO(3) and SE(3), fixed error in Eq. (10.25), explained the equivalence between the yaw-pitch-roll and roll-pitch-yaw forms and introduction of the [lnR] ▽ notation when discussing the logarithm maps (14 Aug 2012) • Version 2: Added more Jacobians (§10.3.5, §10.3.6, §10.3.4), the Appendix A and approximation in §10.3.8. (12 Sep 2010) • Version 1: First version (Released 1 Sep 2010). Notice: Part of this report was also published within chapter 10 and appendix IV of the book [6]. Takens' theorem demonstrates that in the absence of noise a multidimensional state space can be reconstructed from a scalar time series. This theorem gives little guidance, however, about practical considerations for reconstructing a good state space. We extend Takens' treatment, applying statistical methods to incorporate the effects of observational noise and estimation error. We define the distortion matrix, which is proportional to the conditional covariance of a state, given a series of noisy measurements, and the noise amplification, which is proportional to root-mean-square time series prediction errors with an ideal model. We derive explicit formulae for these quantities, and we prove that in the low noise limit minimizing the distortion is equivalent to minimizing the noise amplification. We identify several different scaling regimes for distortion and noise amplification, and derive asymptotic scaling laws. When the dimension and Lyapunov exponents are sufficiently large these scaling laws show that, no matter how the state space is reconstructed, there is an explosion in the noise amplification- from a practical point of view determinism is lost, and the time series is effectively a random process. In the low noise, large data limit we show that the technique of local singular value decomposition is an optimal coordinate transformation, in the sense that it achieves the minimum distortion in a state space of the lowest possible dimension. However, in numerical experiments we find that estimation error complicates this issue. For local approximation methods, we analyze the effect of reconstruction on estimation error, derive a scaling law, and suggest an algorithm for reducing estimation errors. We generalise the Gaussian process (GP) framework for regression by learning a nonlinear transformation of the GP outputs. This allows for non-Gaussian processes and non-Gaussian noise. The learning algorithm chooses a nonlinear transformation such that transformed data is well-modelled by a GP. This can be seen as including a preprocessing transformation as an integral part of the probabilistic modelling problem, rather than as an ad-hoc step. We demonstrate on several real regression problems that learning the transformation can lead to significantly better performance than using a regular GP, or a GP with a fixed transformation.