Unexpected increases in demand and most of all flash crowds are considered the bane of every web application as they may cause intolerable delays or even service unavailability. Proper quality of service policies must guarantee rapid reactivity and responsiveness even in such critical situations. Previous solutions fail to meet common performance requirements when the system has to face sudden and unpredictable surges of traffic. Indeed they often rely on a proper setting of key parameters which requires laborious manual tuning, preventing a fast adaptation of the control policies. We contribute an original Self-* Overload Control (SOC) policy. This allows the system to self-configure a dynamic constraint on the rate of admitted sessions in order to respect service level agreements and maximize the resource utilization at the same time. Our policy does not require any prior information on the incoming traffic or manual configuration of key parameters. We ran extensive simulations under a wide range of operating conditions, showing that SOC rapidly adapts to time varying traffic and self-optimizes the resource utilization. It admits as many new sessions as possible in observance of the agreements, even under intense workload variations. We compared our algorithm to previously proposed approaches highlighting a more stable behavior and a better performance.
The application of the autonomic computing paradigm to the problem of overload control in web systems poses some key problems concerning the design of the monitoring module. The authors of @cite_12 propose a technique for learning dynamic patterns of web user behavior. A finite state machine representing the typical user behavior is constructed on the basis of past history and used for prediction and prefetching techniques. In paper @cite_5 the problem of delay prediction is analyzed on the basis of a learning activity exploiting passive measurements of query executions. Such predictive capability is exploited to enhance traditional query optimizers.
@cite_5 @cite_12
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We present a probabilistic generative model for timing deviations in expressive music performance. The structure of the proposed model is equivalent to a switching state space model. The switch variables correspond to discrete note locations as in a musical score. The continuous hidden variables denote the tempo. We formulate two well known music recognition problems, namely tempo tracking and automatic transcription (rhythm quantization) as filtering and maximum a posteriori (MAP) state estimation tasks. Exact computation of posterior features such as the MAP state is intractable in this model class, so we introduce Monte Carlo methods for integration and optimization. We compare Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods (such as Gibbs sampling, simulated annealing and iterative improvement) and sequential Monte Carlo methods (particle filters). Our simulation results suggest better results with sequential methods. The methods can be applied in both online and batch scenarios such as tempo tracking and transcription and are thus potentially useful in a number of music applications such as adaptive automatic accompaniment, score typesetting and music information retrieval. Autonomics or self-reorganization becomes pertinent for web-sites serving a large number of users with highly varying workloads. An important component of self-adaptation is to model the behaviour of users and adapt accordingly. This paper proposes a learning-automata based technique for model discovery. User access patterns are used to construct an FSM model of user behaviour that in turn is used for prediction and prefetching. The proposed technique uses a generalization algorithm to classify behaviour patterns into a small number of generalized classes. It has been tested on both synthetic and live data-sets and has shown a prediction hit-rate of up to 89 on a real web-site. We study the problem of optimizing the performance of a system shared by selfish, noncooperative users. We consider the concrete setting of scheduling small jobs on a set of shared machines possessing latency functions that specify the amount of time needed to complete a job, given the machine load. We measure system performance by the total latency of the system. Assigning jobs according to the selfish interests of individual users, who wish to minimize only the latency that their own jobs experience, typically results in suboptimal system performance. However, in many systems of this type there is a mixture of "selfishly controlled" and "centrally controlled" jobs. The congestion due to centrally controlled jobs will influence the actions of selfish users, and we thus aspire to contain the degradation in system performance due to selfish behavior by scheduling the centrally controlled jobs in the best possible way. We formulate this goal as an optimization problem via Stackelberg games, games in which one player acts a leader (here, the centralized authority interested in optimizing system performance) and the rest as followers (the selfish users). The problem is then to compute a strategy for the leader (a Stackelberg strategy) that induces the followers to react in a way that (approximately) minimizes the total latency in the system. In this paper, we prove that it is NP-hard to compute an optimal Stackelberg strategy and present simple strategies with provably good performance guarantees. More precisely, we give a simple algorithm that computes a strategy inducing a job assignment with total latency no more than a constant times that of the optimal assignment of all of the jobs; in the absence of centrally controlled jobs and a Stackelberg strategy, no result of this type is possible. We also prove stronger performance guarantees in the special case where every machine latency function is linear in the machine load. We consider the problem of resource allocation in downlink OFDMA systems for multi service and unknown environment. Due to users' mobility and intercell interference, the base station cannot predict neither the Signal to Noise Ratio (SNR) of each user in future time slots nor their probability distribution functions. In addition, the traffic is bursty in general with unknown arrival. The probability distribution functions of the SNR, channel state and traffic arrival density are then unknown. Achieving a multi service Quality of Service (QoS) while optimizing the performance of the system (e.g. total throughput) is a hard and interesting task since it depends on the unknown future traffic and SNR values. In this paper we solve this problem by modeling the multiuser queuing system as a discrete time linear dynamic system. We develop a robust H∞ controller to regulate the queues of different users. The queues and Packet Drop Rates (PDR) are controlled by proposing a minimum data rate according to the demanded service type of each user. The data rate vector proposed by the controller is then fed as a constraint to an instantaneous resource allocation framework. This instantaneous problem is formulated as a convex optimization problem for instantaneous subcarrier and power allocation decisions. Simulation results show small delays and better fairness among users. Machine-to-machine (M2M) communications have many applications, such as in smart grid, health monitoring alerting, and intelligent transportation. Due to unique characteristics that are different from the traditional human-to-human communications, numerous design challenges have to be tackled in M2M. A critical issue is that of dealing with the massive access of machine-type communication (MTC) devices while guaranteeing the desired quality of service (QoS). In this paper, we group MTC devices into clusters based on their QoS requirement. By utilizing the time-controlled M2M feature, we formulate the problem of massive access with QoS guarantee as a queuing problem. We derive an overflow probability estimation model by applying a large deviation principle and then propose an online-measurement-based adaptive massive access management for deciding the amount of resources allocated for each cluster. The proposed method bases the decision on the observed traffic workload with no prior knowledge of its statistics. We conduct the simulations in multicluster scenarios with distinct maximum tolerable delay and corresponding acceptable probability in a long-term evolution system. The simulation results show the adaptability of the proposed massive access management regime to the variations in the traffic workload; thus, it is capable of accommodating dynamic propagation conditions and unknown traffic characteristics, particularly in burst-by-burst communications. Abstract We present an approximation technique, that can render real-time model checking of safety and universal path properties more efficient. It is beneficial, when loops lead to repetition of control situations. Basically we augment a timed automata model with carefully selected extra transitions. This increases the size of the state-space, but potentially decreases the number of symbolic states to be explored by orders of magnitude. We give a formal definition of a timed automata formalism, enriched with basic data types, hand-shake synchronization, urgency, and committed locations. We prove by means of a trace semantics, that if a safety property can be established in the augmented model, it also holds for the original model. We extend our technique to a richer set of properties, that can be decided via a set of traces (universal path properties). In order for universal path properties to carry over to the original model, the semantics of the timed automata formalism is formulated relative to the applied augmentation. Our technique is particularly useful in systems, where a scheduler dictates repetition of control over elapsing time. As a typical example we mention translations of LEGO® RCX™ programs to U ppaal models, where the Round-Robin scheduler is a static entity. We allow scheduler and associated tasks to “park”, until some timing or environmental conditions are met. We apply our technique on a brick-sorter model for a safety property and report run-time data. We study the problem of optimizing the performance of a system shared by selfish, noncooperative users. We consider the concrete setting of scheduling jobs on a set of shared machines with load-dependent latency functions specifying the length of time necessary to complete a job; we measure system performance by the total latency of the system. Assigning jobs according to the selfish interests of individual users (who wish to minimize only the latency that their own jobs experience) typically results in suboptimal system performance. However, in many systems of this type there is a mixture of “selfishly controlled” and “centrally controlled” jobs; as the assignment of centrally controlled jobs will influence the subsequent actions by selfish users, we aspire to contain the degradation in system performance due to selfish behavior by scheduling the centrally controlled jobs in the best possible way. We formulate this goal as an optimization problem via Stackelberg games , games in which one player acts a leader (here, the centralized authority interested in optimizing system performance) and the rest as followers (the selfish users). The problem is then to compute a strategy for the leader (a em Stackelberg strategy ) that induces the followers to react in a way that (at least approximately) minimizes the total latency in the system. In this paper, we prove that it is NP-hard to compute the optimal Stackelberg strategy and present simple strategies with provable performance guarantees. More precisely, we give a simple algorithm that computes a strategy inducing a job assignment with total latency no more than a constant times that of the optimal assignment of all of the jobs; in the absence of centrally controlled jobs and a Stackelberg strategy, no result of this type is possible. We also prove stronger performance guarantees in the Scavenging the idling computation resources at the enormous number of mobile devices, ranging from small IoT devices to powerful laptop computers, can provide a powerful platform for local mobile cloud computing. The vision can be realized by peer-to-peer cooperative computing between edge devices, referred to as co-computing . This paper exploits the non-causal helper’s CPU-state information to design energy-efficient co-computing policies for scavenging time-varying spare computation resources at peer mobiles. Specifically, we consider a co-computing system where a user offloads computation of input data to a helper. The helper controls the offloading process for the objective of minimizing the user’s energy consumption based on a predicted helper’s CPU-idling profile that specifies the amount of available computation resource for co-computing. Consider the scenario that the user has one-shot input-data arrival and the helper buffers offloaded bits. The problem for energy-efficient co-computing is formulated as two sub-problems: the slave problem corresponding to adaptive offloading and the master one to data partitioning. Given a fixed offloaded data size, the adaptive offloading aims at minimizing the energy consumption for offloading by controlling the offloading rate under the deadline and buffer constraints. By deriving the necessary and sufficient conditions for the optimal solution, we characterize the structure of the optimal policies and propose algorithms for computing the policies. Furthermore, we show that the problem of optimal data partitioning for offloading and local computing at the user is convex, admitting a simple solution using the sub-gradient method. Finally, the developed design approach for co-computing is extended to the scenario of bursty data arrivals at the user accounting for data causality constraints. Simulation results verify the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms. We present automated techniques for the verification and control of partially observable, probabilistic systems for both discrete and dense models of time. For the discrete-time case, we formally model these systems using partially observable Markov decision processes; for dense time, we propose an extension of probabilistic timed automata in which local states are partially visible to an observer or controller. We give probabilistic temporal logics that can express a range of quantitative properties of these models, relating to the probability of an event's occurrence or the expected value of a reward measure. We then propose techniques to either verify that such a property holds or synthesise a controller for the model which makes it true. Our approach is based on a grid-based abstraction of the uncountable belief space induced by partial observability and, for dense-time models, an integer discretisation of real-time behaviour. The former is necessarily approximate since the underlying problem is undecidable, however we show how both lower and upper bounds on numerical results can be generated. We illustrate the effectiveness of the approach by implementing it in the PRISM model checker and applying it to several case studies from the domains of task and network scheduling, computer security and planning. Accurate analytical expressions of delay and packet reception probabilities, and energy consumption of duty-cycled wireless sensor networks with random medium access control (MAC) are instrumental for the efficient design and optimization of these resource-constrained networks. Given a clustered network topology with unslotted IEEE 802.15.4 and preamble sampling MAC, a novel approach to the modeling of the delay, reliability, and energy consumption is proposed. The challenging part in such a modeling is the random MAC and sleep policy of the receivers, which prevents to establish the exact time of data packet transmission. The analysis gives expressions as function of sleep time, listening time, traffic rate and MAC parameters. The analytical results are then used to optimize the duty cycle of the nodes and MAC protocol parameters. The approach provides a significant reduction of the energy consumption compared to existing solutions in the literature. Monte Carlo simulations by ns2 assess the validity of the analysis. We consider the problem of learning to act in partially observable, continuous-state-and-action worlds where we have abstract prior knowledge about the structure of the optimal policy in the form of a distribution over policies. Using ideas from planning-as-inference reductions and Bayesian unsupervised learning, we cast Markov Chain Monte Carlo as a stochastic, hill-climbing policy search algorithm. Importantly, this algorithm's search bias is directly tied to the prior and its MCMC proposal kernels, which means we can draw on the full Bayesian toolbox to express the search bias, including nonparametric priors and structured, recursive processes like grammars over action sequences. Furthermore, we can reason about uncertainty in the search bias itself by constructing a hierarchical prior and reasoning about latent variables that determine the abstract structure of the policy. This yields an adaptive search algorithm--our algorithm learns to learn a structured policy efficiently. We show how inference over the latent variables in these policy priors enables intra- and intertask transfer of abstract knowledge. We demonstrate the flexibility of this approach by learning meta search biases, by constructing a nonparametric finite state controller to model memory, by discovering motor primitives using a simple grammar over primitive actions, and by combining all three. Many problems in machine learning and computer vision consist of predicting multi-dimensional output vectors given a specific set of input features. In many of these problems, there exist inherent temporal and spatial dependencies between the output vectors, as well as repeating output patterns and input-output associations, that can provide more robust and accurate predictors when modeled properly. With this intrinsic motivation, we propose a novel Output-Associative Relevance Vector Machine (OA-RVM) regression framework that augments the traditional RVM regression by being able to learn non-linear input and output dependencies. Instead of depending solely on the input patterns, OA-RVM models output covariances within a predefined temporal window, thus capturing past, current and future context. As a result, output patterns manifested in the training data are captured within a formal probabilistic framework, and subsequently used during inference. As a proof of concept, we target the highly challenging problem of dimensional and continuous prediction of emotions, and evaluate the proposed framework by focusing on the case of multiple nonverbal cues, namely facial expressions, shoulder movements and audio cues. We demonstrate the advantages of the proposed OA-RVM regression by performing subject-independent evaluation using the SAL database that constitutes naturalistic conversational interactions. The experimental results show that OA-RVM regression outperforms the traditional RVM and SVM regression approaches in terms of accuracy of the prediction (evaluated using the Root Mean Squared Error) and structure of the prediction (evaluated using the correlation coefficient), generating more accurate and robust prediction models. This paper presents a novel modeling and con- trol approach for the aggregation of large numbers of hetero- geneous thermostatically controlled loads, such as refrigera- tors, electric water heaters, and air conditioners, and their usage for Demand Response. Unlike traditional Demand Re- sponse methods that act on time scales of hours, this ap- proach is able to provide short-term (e.g., second-to-second) ancillary services, such as balancing and frequency control. A statistical modeling approach based on Markov Chains is used to describe the evolution of probability mass in a tem- perature state space. The Markov state transition matrix is identified using state information from the population of thermostatically controlled loads. A predictive controller is used to control the aggregate population of loads such that it tracks a signal. A simulation example shows the applicabil- ity of the approach to realistic systems, and includes a com- parison of control performance depending on available state information and controller parameterization. Time varying problems usually have complex underlying structures represented as dynamic networks where entities and relationships appear and disappear over time. The problem of efficiently performing dynamic link inference is extremely challenging due to the dynamic nature in massive evolving networks especially when there exist sparse connectivities and nonlinear transitional patterns. In this paper, we propose a novel deep learning framework, i.e., Conditional Temporal Restricted Boltzmann Machine (ctRBM), which predicts links based on individual transition variance as well as influence introduced by local neighbors. The proposed model is robust to noise and have the exponential capability to capture nonlinear variance. We tackle the computational challenges by developing an efficient algorithm for learning and inference of the proposed model. To improve the efficiency of the approach, we give a faster approximated implementation based on a proposed Neighbor Influence Clustering algorithm. Extensive experiments on simulated as well as real-world dynamic networks show that the proposed method outperforms existing algorithms in link inference on dynamic networks. The paper concerns the synthesis of supervisory controllers for a class of continuous-time hybrid systems with discrete-valued input signals that select differential inclusions for continuous-valued state trajectories and event-valued output signals generated by threshold crossings in the continuous state space, the supervisor is allowed to switch the input signal value when threshold events are observed. The objective is to synthesize a nonblocking supervisor such that the set of possible sequences of control and threshold event pairs for the closed-loop system lies between given upper and lower bounds in the sense of set containment. We show how this problem can be converted into a supervisor synthesis problem for a standard controlled discrete-event system (DES). A finite representation may not exist for the exact DES model of the hybrid system, however. To circumvent this difficulty, we present an algorithm for constructing finite-state Muller automata that accept outer approximations to the exact controlled threshold-event language, and we demonstrate that supervisors that solve the synthesis problem for the approximating automata achieve the control specifications when applied to the original hybrid system. Due to the limited amount of training samples, finetuning pre-trained deep models online is prone to overfitting. In this paper, we propose a sequential training method for convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to effectively transfer pre-trained deep features for online applications. We regard a CNN as an ensemble with each channel of the output feature map as an individual base learner. Each base learner is trained using different loss criterions to reduce correlation and avoid over-training. To achieve the best ensemble online, all the base learners are sequentially sampled into the ensemble via important sampling. To further improve the robustness of each base learner, we propose to train the convolutional layers with random binary masks, which serves as a regularization to enforce each base learner to focus on different input features. The proposed online training method is applied to visual tracking problem by transferring deep features trained on massive annotated visual data and is shown to significantly improve tracking performance. Extensive experiments are conducted on two challenging benchmark data set and demonstrate that our tracking algorithm can outperform state-of-the-art methods with a considerable margin. We introduce autonomous gossiping (A G), a new genre epidemic algorithm for selective dissemination of information in contrast to previous usage of epidemic algorithms which flood the whole network. A G is a paradigm which suits well in a mobile ad-hoc networking (MANET) environment because it does not require any infrastructure or middleware like multicast tree and (un)subscription maintenance for publish subscribe, but uses ecological and economic principles in a self-organizing manner in order to achieve any arbitrary selectivity (flexible casting). The trade-off of using a stateless self-organizing mechanism like A G is that it does not guarantee completeness deterministically as is one of the original objectives of alternate selective dissemination schemes like publish subscribe. We argue that such incompleteness is not a problem in many non-critical real-life civilian application scenarios and realistic node mobility patterns, where the overhead of infrastructure maintenance may outweigh the benefits of completeness, more over, at present there exists no mechanism to realize publish subscribe or other paradigms for selective dissemination in MANET environments. This paper introduces a framework for inference of timed temporal logic properties from data. The dataset is given as a finite set of pairs of finite-time system traces and labels, where the labels indicate whether the traces exhibit some desired behavior (e.g., a ship traveling along a safe route). We propose a decision-tree based approach for learning signal temporal logic classifiers. The method produces binary decision trees that represent the inferred formulae. Each node of the tree contains a test associated with the satisfaction of a simple formula, optimally tuned from a predefined finite set of primitives. Optimality is assessed using heuristic impurity measures, which capture how well the current primitive splits the data with respect to the traces' labels. We propose extensions of the usual impurity measures from machine learning literature to handle classification of system traces by leveraging upon the robustness degree concept. The proposed incremental construction procedure greatly improves the execution time and the accuracy compared to existing algorithms. We present two case studies that illustrate the usefulness and the computational advantages of the algorithms. The first is an anomaly detection problem in a maritime environment. The second is a fault detection problem in an automotive powertrain system. Graphical models (e.g., Bayesian and constraint networks, influence diagrams, and Markov decision processes) have become a central paradigm for knowledge representation and reasoning in both artificial intelligence and computer science in general. These models are used to perform many reasoning tasks, such as scheduling, planning and learning, diagnosis and prediction, design, hardware and software verification, and bioinformatics. These problems can be stated as the formal tasks of constraint satisfaction and satisfiability, combinatorial optimization, and probabilistic inference. It is well known that the tasks are computationally hard, but research during the past three decades has yielded a variety of principles and techniques that significantly advanced the state of the art. In this book we provide comprehensive coverage of the primary exact algorithms for reasoning with such models. The main feature exploited by the algorithms is the model's graph. We present inference-based, message-passing schemes (e.g., variable-elimination) and search-based, conditioning schemes (e.g., cycle-cutset conditioning and AND OR search). Each class possesses distinguished characteristics and in particular has different time vs. space behavior. We emphasize the dependence of both schemes on few graph parameters such as the treewidth, cycle-cutset, and (the pseudo-tree) height. We believe the principles outlined here would serve well in moving forward to approximation and anytime-based schemes. The target audience of this book is researchers and students in the artificial intelligence and machine learning area, and beyond. Table of Contents: Preface Introduction What are Graphical Models Inference: Bucket Elimination for Deterministic Networks Inference: Bucket Elimination for Probabilistic Networks Tree-Clustering Schemes AND OR Search Spaces and Algorithms for Graphical Models Combining Search and Inference: Trading Space for Time Conclusion Bibliography Author's Biography The computational power of networks of small resource-limited mobile agents is explored. Two new models of computation based on pairwise interactions of finite-state agents in populations of finite but unbounded size are defined. With a fairness condition on interactions, the concept of stable computation of a function or predicate is defined. Protocols are given that stably compute any predicate in the class definable by formulas of Presburger arithmetic, which includes Boolean combinations of threshold-k, majority, and equivalence modulo m. All stably computable predicates are shown to be in NL. Assuming uniform random sampling of interacting pairs yields the model of conjugating automata. Any counter machine with O (1) counters of capacity O (n) can be simulated with high probability by a conjugating automaton in a population of size n. All predicates computable with high probability in this model are shown to be in P; they can also be computed by a randomized logspace machine in exponential time. Several open problems and promising future directions are discussed.