Understanding users' interactions with highly subjective content---like artistic images---is challenging due to the complex semantics that guide our preferences. On the one hand one has to overcome standard' recommender systems challenges, such as dealing with large, sparse, and long-tailed datasets. On the other, several new challenges present themselves, such as the need to model content in terms of its visual appearance, or even social dynamics, such as a preference toward a particular artist that is independent of the art they create. In this paper we build large-scale recommender systems to model the dynamics of a vibrant digital art community, Behance, consisting of tens of millions of interactions (clicks and 'appreciates') of users toward digital art. Methodologically, our main contributions are to model (a) rich content, especially in terms of its visual appearance; (b) temporal dynamics, in terms of how users prefer 'visually consistent' content within and across sessions; and (c) social dynamics, in terms of how users exhibit preferences both towards certain art styles, as well as the artists themselves.
Notably, there is another line of work that employs (personalized) probabilistic Markov embeddings to model sequential data like playlists and POIs (e.g. @cite_28 @cite_22 @cite_5 ). These works differ from ours in terms of both the signals being modeled and the types of models. Moreover, none of them has shown to be able to handle datasets on the same scale with to the best of our knowledge.
@cite_28 @cite_5 @cite_22
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Predicting personalized sequential behavior is a key task for recommender systems. In order to predict user actions such as the next product to purchase, movie to watch, or place to visit, it is essential to take into account both long-term user preferences and sequential patterns (i.e., short-term dynamics). Matrix Factorization and Markov Chain methods have emerged as two separate but powerful paradigms for modeling the two respectively. Combining these ideas has led to unified methods that accommodate long- and short-term dynamics simultaneously by modeling pairwise user-item and item-item interactions. In spite of the success of such methods for tackling dense data, they are challenged by sparsity issues, which are prevalent in real-world datasets. In recent years, similarity-based methods have been proposed for (sequentially-unaware) item recommendation with promising results on sparse datasets. In this paper, we propose to fuse such methods with Markov Chains to make personalized sequential recommendations. We evaluate our method, Fossil, on a variety of large, real-world datasets. We show quantitatively that Fossil outperforms alternative algorithms, especially on sparse datasets, and qualitatively that it captures personalized dynamics and is able to make meaningful recommendations. Predicting personalized sequential behavior is a key task for recommender systems. In order to predict user actions such as the next product to purchase, movie to watch, or place to visit, it is essential to take into account both long-term user preferences and sequential patterns (i.e., short-term dynamics). Matrix Factorization and Markov Chain methods have emerged as two separate but powerful paradigms for modeling the two respectively. Combining these ideas has led to unified methods that accommodate long-and short-term dynamics simultaneously by modeling pairwise user-item and item-item interactions. In spite of the success of such methods for tackling dense data, they are challenged by sparsity issues, which are prevalent in real-world datasets. In recent years, similarity-based methods have been proposed for (sequentially-unaware) item recommendation with promising results on sparse datasets. In this paper, we propose to fuse such methods with Markov Chains to make personalized sequential recommendations. We evaluate our method, Fossil, on a variety of large, real-world datasets. We show quantitatively that Fossil outperforms alternative algorithms, especially on sparse datasets, and qualitatively that it captures personalized dynamics and is able to make meaningful recommendations. Recent research has shown that surprisingly rich models of human behavior can be learned from GPS (positional) data. However, most research to date has concentrated on modeling single individuals or aggregate statistical properties of groups of people. Given noisy real-world GPS data, we—in contrast—consider the problem of modeling and recognizing activities that involve multiple related individuals playing a variety of roles. Our test domain is the game of capture the flag—an outdoor game that involves many distinct cooperative and competitive joint activities. We model the domain using Markov logic, a statistical relational language, and learn a theory that jointly denoises the data and infers occurrences of high-level activities, such as capturing a player. Our model combines constraints imposed by the geometry of the game area, the motion model of the players, and by the rules and dynamics of the game in a probabilistically and logically sound fashion. We show that while it may be impossible to directly detect a multi-agent activity due to sensor noise or malfunction, the occurrence of the activity can still be inferred by considering both its impact on the future behaviors of the people involved as well as the events that could have preceded it. We compare our unified approach with three alternatives (both probabilistic and nonprobabilistic) where either the denoising of the GPS data and the detection of the high-level activities are strictly separated, or the states of the players are not considered, or both. We show that the unified approach with the time window spanning the entire game, although more computationally costly, is significantly more accurate. Most tasks require a person or an automated system to reason -- to reach conclusions based on available information. The framework of probabilistic graphical models, presented in this book, provides a general approach for this task. The approach is model-based, allowing interpretable models to be constructed and then manipulated by reasoning algorithms. These models can also be learned automatically from data, allowing the approach to be used in cases where manually constructing a model is difficult or even impossible. Because uncertainty is an inescapable aspect of most real-world applications, the book focuses on probabilistic models, which make the uncertainty explicit and provide models that are more faithful to reality. Probabilistic Graphical Models discusses a variety of models, spanning Bayesian networks, undirected Markov networks, discrete and continuous models, and extensions to deal with dynamical systems and relational data. For each class of models, the text describes the three fundamental cornerstones: representation, inference, and learning, presenting both basic concepts and advanced techniques. Finally, the book considers the use of the proposed framework for causal reasoning and decision making under uncertainty. The main text in each chapter provides the detailed technical development of the key ideas. Most chapters also include boxes with additional material: skill boxes, which describe techniques; case study boxes, which discuss empirical cases related to the approach described in the text, including applications in computer vision, robotics, natural language understanding, and computational biology; and concept boxes, which present significant concepts drawn from the material in the chapter. Instructors (and readers) can group chapters in various combinations, from core topics to more technically advanced material, to suit their particular needs. We present a novel probabilistic approach for fitting a statistical model to an image. A 3D Morphable Model (3DMM) of faces is interpreted as a generative (Top-Down) Bayesian model. Random Forests are used as noisy detectors (Bottom-Up) for the face and facial landmark positions. The Top-Down and Bottom-Up parts are then combined using a Data-Driven Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method (DDMCMC). As core of the integration, we use the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm which has two main advantages. First, the algorithm can handle unreliable detections and therefore does not need the detectors to take an early and possible wrong hard decision before fitting. Second, it is open for integration of various cues to guide the fitting process. Based on the proposed approach, we implemented a completely automatic, pose and illumination invariant face recognition application. We are able to train and test the building blocks of our application on different databases. The system is evaluated on the Multi-PIE database and reaches state of the art performance. This paper presents a probabilistic model of temporal structure in music which allows joint inference of tempo, meter and rhythmic pattern. The framework of the model naturally quantifies these three musical concepts in terms of hidden state-variables, allowing resolution of otherwise apparent ambiguities in musical structure. At the heart of the system is a probabilistic model of a hypothetical ‘bar-pointer’ which maps an input signal to one cycle of a latent, periodic rhythmical pattern. The system flexibly accommodates different input signals via two observation models: a Poisson points model for use with MIDI onset data and a Gaussian process model for use with raw audio signals. The discrete state-space permits exact computation of posterior probability distributions for the quantities of interest. Results are presented for both observation models, demonstrating the ability of the system to correctly detect changes in rhythmic pattern and meter, whilst tracking tempo. We present a probabilistic generative model for timing deviations in expressive music performance. The structure of the proposed model is equivalent to a switching state space model. The switch variables correspond to discrete note locations as in a musical score. The continuous hidden variables denote the tempo. We formulate two well known music recognition problems, namely tempo tracking and automatic transcription (rhythm quantization) as filtering and maximum a posteriori (MAP) state estimation tasks. Exact computation of posterior features such as the MAP state is intractable in this model class, so we introduce Monte Carlo methods for integration and optimization. We compare Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods (such as Gibbs sampling, simulated annealing and iterative improvement) and sequential Monte Carlo methods (particle filters). Our simulation results suggest better results with sequential methods. The methods can be applied in both online and batch scenarios such as tempo tracking and transcription and are thus potentially useful in a number of music applications such as adaptive automatic accompaniment, score typesetting and music information retrieval. We have already shown that extracting long-term dependencies from sequential data is difficult, both for determimstic dynamical systems such as recurrent networks, and probabilistic models such as hidden Markov models (HMMs) or input output hidden Markov models (IOHMMs). In practice, to avoid this problem, researchers have used domain specific a-priori knowledge to give meaning to the hidden or state variables representing past context. In this paper, we propose to use a more general type of a-priori knowledge, namely that the temporal dependencies are structured hierarchically. This implies that long-term dependencies are represented by variables with a long time scale. This principle is applied to a recurrent network which includes delays and multiple time scales. Experiments confirm the advantages of such structures. A similar approach is proposed for HMMs and IOHMMs. In this paper we present a Bayesian framework for parsing images into their constituent visual patterns. The parsing algorithm optimizes the posterior probability and outputs a scene representation as a "parsing graph", in a spirit similar to parsing sentences in speech and natural language. The algorithm constructs the parsing graph and re-configures it dynamically using a set of moves, which are mostly reversible Markov chain jumps. This computational framework integrates two popular inference approaches--generative (top-down) methods and discriminative (bottom-up) methods. The former formulates the posterior probability in terms of generative models for images defined by likelihood functions and priors. The latter computes discriminative probabilities based on a sequence (cascade) of bottom-up tests filters. In our Markov chain algorithm design, the posterior probability, defined by the generative models, is the invariant (target) probability for the Markov chain, and the discriminative probabilities are used to construct proposal probabilities to drive the Markov chain. Intuitively, the bottom-up discriminative probabilities activate top-down generative models. In this paper, we focus on two types of visual patterns--generic visual patterns, such as texture and shading, and object patterns including human faces and text. These types of patterns compete and cooperate to explain the image and so image parsing unifies image segmentation, object detection, and recognition (if we use generic visual patterns only then image parsing will correspond to image segmentation (Tu and Zhu, 2002. IEEE Trans. PAMI, 24(5):657--673). We illustrate our algorithm on natural images of complex city scenes and show examples where image segmentation can be improved by allowing object specific knowledge to disambiguate low-level segmentation cues, and conversely where object detection can be improved by using generic visual patterns to explain away shadows and occlusions. Graphical models (e.g., Bayesian and constraint networks, influence diagrams, and Markov decision processes) have become a central paradigm for knowledge representation and reasoning in both artificial intelligence and computer science in general. These models are used to perform many reasoning tasks, such as scheduling, planning and learning, diagnosis and prediction, design, hardware and software verification, and bioinformatics. These problems can be stated as the formal tasks of constraint satisfaction and satisfiability, combinatorial optimization, and probabilistic inference. It is well known that the tasks are computationally hard, but research during the past three decades has yielded a variety of principles and techniques that significantly advanced the state of the art. In this book we provide comprehensive coverage of the primary exact algorithms for reasoning with such models. The main feature exploited by the algorithms is the model's graph. We present inference-based, message-passing schemes (e.g., variable-elimination) and search-based, conditioning schemes (e.g., cycle-cutset conditioning and AND OR search). Each class possesses distinguished characteristics and in particular has different time vs. space behavior. We emphasize the dependence of both schemes on few graph parameters such as the treewidth, cycle-cutset, and (the pseudo-tree) height. We believe the principles outlined here would serve well in moving forward to approximation and anytime-based schemes. The target audience of this book is researchers and students in the artificial intelligence and machine learning area, and beyond. Table of Contents: Preface Introduction What are Graphical Models Inference: Bucket Elimination for Deterministic Networks Inference: Bucket Elimination for Probabilistic Networks Tree-Clustering Schemes AND OR Search Spaces and Algorithms for Graphical Models Combining Search and Inference: Trading Space for Time Conclusion Bibliography Author's Biography Probabilistic graphical models, such as partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs), have been used in stochastic spoken dialog systems to handle the inherent uncertainty in speech recognition and language understanding. Such dialog systems suffer from the fact that only a relatively small number of domain variables are allowed in the model, so as to ensure the generation of good-quality dialog policies. At the same time, the non-language perception modalities on robots, such as vision-based facial expression recognition and Lidar-based distance detection, can hardly be integrated into this process. In this paper, we use a probabilistic commonsense reasoner to “guide” our POMDP-based dialog manager, and present a principled, multimodal dialog management (MDM) framework that allows the robot's dialog belief state to be seamlessly updated by both observations of human spoken language, and exogenous events such as the change of human facial expressions. The MDM approach has been implemented and evaluated both in simulation and on a real mobile robot using guidance tasks. Abstract This paper advocates that for some multimodal tasks involving more than one stream of data representing the same sequence of events, it might sometimes be a good idea to be able to desynchronize the streams in order to maximize their joint likelihood. We thus present a novel Hidden Markov Model architecture to model the joint probability of pairs of asynchronous sequences describing the same sequence of events. An Expectation–Maximization algorithm to train the model is presented, as well as a Viterbi decoding algorithm, which can be used to obtain the optimal state sequence as well as the alignment between the two sequences. The model was tested on two audio–visual speech processing tasks, namely speech recognition and text-dependent speaker verification, both using the M2VTS database. Robust performances under various noise conditions were obtained in both cases. Celebrated and its fruitful variants are powerful models to achieve excellent performance on the tasks that map sequences to sequences. However, these are many machine learning tasks with inputs naturally represented in a form of graphs, which imposes significant challenges to existing Seq2Seq models for lossless conversion from its graph form to the sequence. In this work, we present a general end-to-end approach to map the input graph to a sequence of vectors, and then another attention-based LSTM to decode the target sequence from these vectors. Specifically, to address inevitable information loss for data conversion, we introduce a novel graph-to-sequence neural network model that follows the encoder-decoder architecture. Our method first uses an improved graph-based neural network to generate the node and graph embeddings by a novel aggregation strategy to incorporate the edge direction information into the node embeddings. We also propose an attention based mechanism that aligns node embeddings and decoding sequence to better cope with large graphs. Experimental results on bAbI task, Shortest Path Task, and Natural Language Generation Task demonstrate that our model achieves the state-of-the-art performance and significantly outperforms other baselines. We also show that with the proposed aggregation strategy, our proposed model is able to quickly converge to good performance. In order to track moving objects in long range against occlusion, interruption, and background clutter, this paper proposes a unified approach for global trajectory analysis. Instead of the traditional frame-by-frame tracking, our method recovers target trajectories based on a short sequence of video frames, e.g., 15 frames. We initially calculate a foreground map at each frame obtained from a state-of-the-art background model. An attribute graph is then extracted from the foreground map, where the graph vertices are image primitives represented by the composite features. With this graph representation, we pose trajectory analysis as a joint task of spatial graph partitioning and temporal graph matching. The task can be formulated by maximizing a posteriori under the Bayesian framework, in which we integrate the spatio-temporal contexts and the appearance models. The probabilistic inference is achieved by a data-driven Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Given a period of observed frames, the algorithm simulates an ergodic and aperiodic Markov chain, and it visits a sequence of solution states in the joint space of spatial graph partitioning and temporal graph matching. In the experiments, our method is tested on several challenging videos from the public datasets of visual surveillance, and it outperforms the state-of-the-art methods. Learning algorithms that embed objects into Euclidean space have become the methods of choice for a wide range of problems, ranging from recommendation and image search to playlist prediction and language modeling. Probabilistic embedding methods provide elegant approaches to these problems, but can be expensive to train and store as a large monolithic model. In this paper, we propose a method that trains not one monolithic model, but multiple local embeddings for a class of pairwise conditional models especially suited for sequence and co-occurrence modeling. We show that computation and memory for training these multi-space models can be efficiently parallelized over many nodes of a cluster. Focusing on sequence modeling for music playlists, we show that the method substantially speeds up training while maintaining high model quality. Tag recommendation has become one of the most important ways of organizing and indexing online resources like articles, movies, and music. Since tagging information is usually very sparse, effective learning of the content representation for these resources is crucial to accurate tag recommendation. Recently, models proposed for tag recommendation, such as collaborative topic regression and its variants, have demonstrated promising accuracy. However, a limitation of these models is that, by using topic models like latent Dirichlet allocation as the key component, the learned representation may not be compact and effective enough. Moreover, since relational data exist as an auxiliary data source in many applications, it is desirable to incorporate such data into tag recommendation models. In this paper, we start with a deep learning model called stacked denoising autoencoder (SDAE) in an attempt to learn more effective content representation. We propose a probabilistic formulation for SDAE and then extend it to a relational SDAE (RSDAE) model. RSDAE jointly performs deep representation learning and relational learning in a principled way under a probabilistic framework. Experiments conducted on three real datasets show that both learning more effective representation and learning from relational data are beneficial steps to take to advance the state of the art. This paper presents a novel modeling and con- trol approach for the aggregation of large numbers of hetero- geneous thermostatically controlled loads, such as refrigera- tors, electric water heaters, and air conditioners, and their usage for Demand Response. Unlike traditional Demand Re- sponse methods that act on time scales of hours, this ap- proach is able to provide short-term (e.g., second-to-second) ancillary services, such as balancing and frequency control. A statistical modeling approach based on Markov Chains is used to describe the evolution of probability mass in a tem- perature state space. The Markov state transition matrix is identified using state information from the population of thermostatically controlled loads. A predictive controller is used to control the aggregate population of loads such that it tracks a signal. A simulation example shows the applicabil- ity of the approach to realistic systems, and includes a com- parison of control performance depending on available state information and controller parameterization. Dynamic Bayesian networks such as Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are successfully used as probabilistic models for human motion. The use of hidden variables makes them expressive models, but inference is only approximate and requires procedures such as particle filters or Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. In this work we propose to instead use simple Markov models that only model observed quantities. We retain a highly expressive dynamic model by using interactions that are nonlinear and non-parametric. A presentation of our approach in terms of latent variables shows logarithmic growth for the computation of exact log-likelihoods in the number of latent states. We validate our model on human motion capture data and demonstrate state-of-the-art performance on action recognition and motion completion tasks. With the rapid growth of Internet applications, sequential prediction in collaborative filtering has become an emerging and crucial task. Given the behavioral history of a specific user, predicting his or her next choice plays a key role in improving various online services. Meanwhile, there are more and more scenarios with multiple types of behaviors, while existing works mainly study sequences with a single type of behavior. As a widely used approach, Markov chain based models are based on a strong independence assumption. As two classical neural network methods for modeling sequences, recurrent neural networks cannot well model short-term contexts, and the log-bilinear model is not suitable for long-term contexts. In this paper, we propose a Recurrent Log-BiLinear (RLBL) model. It can model multiple types of behaviors in historical sequences with behavior-specific transition matrices. RLBL applies a recurrent structure for modeling long-term contexts. It models several items in each hidden layer and employs position-specific transition matrices for modeling short-term contexts. Moreover, considering continuous time difference in behavioral history is a key factor for dynamic prediction, we further extend RLBL and replace position-specific transition matrices with time-specific transition matrices, and accordingly propose a Time-Aware Recurrent Log-BiLinear (TA-RLBL) model. Experimental results show that the proposed RLBL model and TA-RLBL model yield significant improvements over the competitive compared methods on three datasets, i.e., Movielens-1M dataset, Global Terrorism Database and Tmall dataset with different numbers of behavior types. We consider the problem of 20 questions with noise for multiple players under the minimum entropy criterion in the setting of stochastic search, with application to target localization. Each player yields a noisy response to a binary query governed by a certain error probability. First, we propose a sequential policy for constructing questions that queries each player in sequence and refines the posterior of the target location. Second, we consider a joint policy that asks all players questions in parallel at each time instant and characterize the structure of the optimal policy for constructing the sequence of questions. This generalizes the single player probabilistic bisection method for stochastic search problems. Third, we prove an equivalence between the two schemes showing that, despite the fact that the sequential scheme has access to a more refined filtration, the joint scheme performs just as well on average. Fourth, we establish convergence rates of the mean-square error and derive error exponents. Finally, we obtain an extension to the case of unknown error probabilities. This framework provides a mathematical model for incorporating a human in the loop for active machine learning systems.