In this paper we address the problem of predicting a time series using the ARMA (autoregressive moving average) model, under minimal assumptions on the noise terms. Using regret minimization techniques, we develop effective online learning algorithms for the prediction problem, without assuming that the noise terms are Gaussian, identically distributed or even independent. Furthermore, we show that our algorithm's performances asymptotically approaches the performance of the best ARMA model in hindsight.
Furthermore, an online approach that relies on regret minimization techniques was never considered for ARMA prediction, and hence regret bounds of the type we are interested simply do not exist. Yet, results on the convergence rate of the coefficient vectors do exist, and regret bounds can be derived from these results. E.g., in @cite_2 such results are presented, and a regret bound of @math can be derived for the squared loss. We are not familiar of these kind of results for general convex loss functions.
@cite_2
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This paper examines the generalization properties of online convex programming algorithms when the loss function is Lipschitz and strongly convex. Our main result is a sharp bound, that holds with high probability, on the excess risk of the output of an online algorithm in terms of the average regret. This allows one to use recent algorithms with logarithmic cumulative regret guarantees to achieve fast convergence rates for the excess risk with high probability. As a corollary, we characterize the convergence rate of PEGASOS (with high probability), a recently proposed method for solving the SVM optimization problem. We present an algorithm for the statistical learning setting with a bounded exp-concave loss in @math dimensions that obtains excess risk @math with probability at least @math . The core technique is to boost the confidence of recent in-expectation @math excess risk bounds for empirical risk minimization (ERM), without sacrificing the rate, by leveraging a Bernstein condition which holds due to exp-concavity. We also show that with probability @math the standard ERM method obtains excess risk @math . We further show that a regret bound for any online learner in this setting translates to a high probability excess risk bound for the corresponding online-to-batch conversion of the online learner. Lastly, we present two high probability bounds for the exp-concave model selection aggregation problem that are quantile-adaptive in a certain sense. The first bound is a purely exponential weights type algorithm, obtains a nearly optimal rate, and has no explicit dependence on the Lipschitz continuity of the loss. The second bound requires Lipschitz continuity but obtains the optimal rate. We study online aggregation of the predictions of experts, and first show new second-order regret bounds in the standard setting, which are obtained via a version of the Prod algorithm (and also a version of the polynomially weighted average algorithm) with multiple learning rates. These bounds are in terms of excess losses, the differences between the instantaneous losses suffered by the algorithm and the ones of a given expert. We then demonstrate the interest of these bounds in the context of experts that report their confidences as a number in the interval [0; 1] using a generic reduction to the standard setting. We conclude by two other applications in the standard setting, which improve the known bounds in case of small excess losses and show a bounded regret against i.i.d. sequences of losses. We study the online convex optimization problem, in which an online algorithm has to make repeated decisions with convex loss functions and hopes to achieve a small regret. We consider a natural restriction of this problem in which the loss functions have a small deviation, measured by the sum of the distances between every two consecutive loss functions, according to some distance metrics. We show that for the linear and general smooth convex loss functions, an online algorithm modified from the gradient descend algorithm can achieve a regret which only scales as the square root of the deviation. For the closely related problem of prediction with expert advice, we show that an online algorithm modified from the multiplicative update algorithm can also achieve a similar regret bound for a different measure of deviation. Finally, for loss functions which are strictly convex, we show that an online algorithm modified from the online Newton step algorithm can achieve a regret which is only logarithmic in terms of the deviation, and as an application, we can also have such a logarithmic regret for the portfolio management problem. We introduce a new online convex optimization algorithm that adaptively chooses its regularization function based on the loss functions observed so far. This is in contrast to previous algorithms that use a fixed regularization function such as L2-squared, and modify it only via a single time-dependent parameter. Our algorithm’s regret bounds are worst-case optimal, and for certain realistic classes of loss functions they are much better than existing bounds. These bounds are problem-dependent, which means they can exploit the structure of the actual problem instance. Critically, however, our algorithm does not need to know this structure in advance. Rather, we prove competitive guarantees that show the algorithm provides a bound within a constant factor of the best possible bound (of a certain functional form) in hindsight. We introduce a new online convex optimization algorithm that adaptively chooses its regularization function based on the loss functions observed so far. This is in contrast to previous algorithms that use a fixed regularization function such as L2-squared, and modify it only via a single time-dependent parameter. Our algorithm's regret bounds are worst-case optimal, and for certain realistic classes of loss functions they are much better than existing bounds. These bounds are problem-dependent, which means they can exploit the structure of the actual problem instance. Critically, however, our algorithm does not need to know this structure in advance. Rather, we prove competitive guarantees that show the algorithm provides a bound within a constant factor of the best possible bound (of a certain functional form) in hindsight. In the classical stochastic k-armed bandit problem, in each of a sequence of T rounds, a decision maker chooses one of k arms and incurs a cost chosen from an unknown distribution associated with that arm. The goal is to minimize regret, defined as the difference between the cost incurred by the algorithm and the optimal cost. In the linear optimization version of this problem (first considered by Auer [2002]), we view the arms as vectors in R, and require that the costs be linear functions of the chosen vector. As before, it is assumed that the cost functions are sampled independently from an unknown distribution. In this setting, the goal is to find algorithms whose running time and regret behave well as functions of the number of rounds T and the dimensionality n (rather than the number of arms, k, which may be exponential in n or even infinite). We give a nearly complete characterization of this problem in terms of both upper and lower bounds for the regret. In certain special cases (such as when the decision region is a polytope), the regret is polylog(T ). In general though, the optimal regret is Θ∗( √ T ) — our lower bounds rule out the possibility of obtaining polylog(T ) rates in general. We present two variants of an algorithm based on the idea of “upper confidence bounds.” The first, due to Auer [2002], but not fully analyzed, obtains regret whose dependence on n and T are both essentially optimal, but which may be computationally intractable when the decision set is a polytope. The second version can be efficiently implemented when the decision set is a polytope (given as an intersection of half-spaces), but gives up a factor of √ n in the regret bound. Our results also extend to the setting where the set of allowed decisions may change over time. ∗Department of Computer Science, University of Chicago, varsha@cs.uchicago.edu †Toyota Technological Institute at Chicago, hayest,sham @tti-c.org We apply the exponential weight algorithm, introduced and Littlestone and Warmuth [26]and by Vovk [35]to the problem of predicting a binary sequence almost as well as the best biased coin. We first show that for the case of the logarithmic loss, the derived algorithm is equivalent to the Bayes algorithm with Jeffreys prior, that was studied by Xie and Barron [38]under probabilistic assumptions. We derive a uniform bound on the regret which holds for any sequence. We also show that if the empirical distribution of the sequence is bounded away from 0 and from 1, then, as the length of the sequence increases to infinity, the difference between this bound and a corresponding bound on the average case regret of the same algorithm (which is asymptotically optimal in that case) is only 1 2. We show that this gap of 1 2 is necessary by calculating the regret of the min–max optimal algorithm for this problem and showing that the asymptotic upper bound is tight. We also study the application of this algorithm to the square loss and show that the algorithm that is derived in this case is different from the Bayes algorithm and is better than it for prediction in the worstcase. The study of online convex optimization in the bandit setting was initiated by Kleinberg (2004) and (2005). Such a setting models a decision maker that has to make decisions in the face of adversarially chosen convex loss functions. Moreover, the only information the decision maker receives are the losses. The identities of the loss functions themselves are not revealed. In this setting, we reduce the gap between the best known lower and upper bounds for the class of smooth convex functions, i.e. convex functions with a Lipschitz continuous gradient. Building upon existing work on selfconcordant regularizers and one-point gradient estimation, we give the first algorithm whose expected regret is O(T ), ignoring constant and logarithmic factors. We address online linear optimization problems when the possible actions of the decision maker are represented by binary vectors. The regret of the decision maker is the difference between her realized loss and the minimal loss she would have achieved by picking, in hindsight, the best possible action. Our goal is to understand the magnitude of the best possible minimax regret. We study the problem under three different assumptions for the feedback the decision maker receives: full information, and the partial information models of the so-called “semi-bandit” and “bandit” problems. In the full information case we show that the standard exponentially weighted average forecaster is a provably suboptimal strategy. For the semi-bandit model, by combining the Mirror Descent algorithm and the INF Implicitely Normalized Forecaster strategy, we are able to prove the first optimal bounds. Finally, in the bandit case we discuss existing results in light of a new lower bound, and suggest a conjecture on the optimal regret in that case. This work deals with four classical prediction settings, namely full information, bandit, label efficient and bandit label efficient as well as four different notions of regret: pseudo-regret, expected regret, high probability regret and tracking the best expert regret. We introduce a new forecaster, INF (Implicitly Normalized Forecaster) based on an arbitrary function ψ for which we propose a unified analysis of its pseudo-regret in the four games we consider. In particular, for ψ(x)=exp(η x) + γ K, INF reduces to the classical exponentially weighted average forecaster and our analysis of the pseudo-regret recovers known results while for the expected regret we slightly tighten the bounds. On the other hand with ψ(x)=(η -x)q + γ K, which defines a new forecaster, we are able to remove the extraneous logarithmic factor in the pseudo-regret bounds for bandits games, and thus fill in a long open gap in the characterization of the minimax rate for the pseudo-regret in the bandit game. We also provide high probability bounds depending on the cumulative reward of the optimal action. Finally, we consider the stochastic bandit game, and prove that an appropriate modification of the upper confidence bound policy UCB1 (, 2002a) achieves the distribution-free optimal rate while still having a distribution-dependent rate logarithmic in the number of plays. We consider the adversarial convex bandit problem and we build the first @math -time algorithm with @math -regret for this problem. To do so we introduce three new ideas in the derivative-free optimization literature: (i) kernel methods, (ii) a generalization of Bernoulli convolutions, and (iii) a new annealing schedule for exponential weights (with increasing learning rate). The basic version of our algorithm achieves @math -regret, and we show that a simple variant of this algorithm can be run in @math -time per step at the cost of an additional @math factor in the regret. These results improve upon the @math -regret and @math -time result of the first two authors, and the @math -regret and @math -time result of Hazan and Li. Furthermore we conjecture that another variant of the algorithm could achieve @math -regret, and moreover that this regret is unimprovable (the current best lower bound being @math and it is achieved with linear functions). For the simpler situation of zeroth order stochastic convex optimization this corresponds to the conjecture that the optimal query complexity is of order @math . We consider a non-Bayesian infinite horizon version of the multi-armed bandit problem with the objective of designing simple policies whose regret increases sldwly with time. In their seminal work on this problem, Lai and Robbins had obtained a O(logn) lower bound on the regret with a constant that depends on the KullbackLeibler number. They also constructed policies for some specific families of probability distributions (including exponential families) that achieved the lower bound. In this paper we construct index policies that depend on the rewards from each arm only through their sample mean. These policies are computationally much simpler and are also applicable much more generally. They achieve a O(logn) regret with a constant that is also based on the Kullback-Leibler number. This constant turns out to be optimal for one-parameter exponential families; however, in general it is derived from the optimal one via a 'contraction' principle. Our results rely entirely on a few key lemmas from the theory of large deviations. We study an equivalence of (i) deterministic pathwise statements appearing in the online learning literature (termed regret bounds), (ii) high-probability tail bounds for the supremum of a collection of martingales (of a specific form arising from uniform laws of large numbers for martingales), and (iii) in-expectation bounds for the supremum. By virtue of the equivalence, we prove exponential tail bounds for norms of Banach space valued martingales via deterministic regret bounds for the online mirror descent algorithm with an adaptive step size. We extend these results beyond the linear structure of the Banach space: we define a notion of martingale type for general classes of real-valued functions and show its equivalence (up to a logarithmic factor) to various sequential complexities of the class (in particular, the sequential Rademacher complexity and its offset version). For classes with the general martingale type 2, we exhibit a finer notion of variation that allows partial adaptation to the function indexing the martingale. Our proof technique rests on sequential symmetrization and on certifying the existence of regret minimization strategies for certain online prediction problems. In this paper, we initiate a systematic investigation of differentially private algorithms for convex empirical risk minimization. Various instantiations of this problem have been studied before. We provide new algorithms and matching lower bounds for private ERM assuming only that each data point's contribution to the loss function is Lipschitz bounded and that the domain of optimization is bounded. We provide a separate set of algorithms and matching lower bounds for the setting in which the loss functions are known to also be strongly convex. Our algorithms run in polynomial time, and in some cases even match the optimal non-private running time (as measured by oracle complexity). We give separate algorithms (and lower bounds) for @math - and @math -differential privacy; perhaps surprisingly, the techniques used for designing optimal algorithms in the two cases are completely different. Our lower bounds apply even to very simple, smooth function families, such as linear and quadratic functions. This implies that algorithms from previous work can be used to obtain optimal error rates, under the additional assumption that the contributions of each data point to the loss function is smooth. We show that simple approaches to smoothing arbitrary loss functions (in order to apply previous techniques) do not yield optimal error rates. In particular, optimal algorithms were not previously known for problems such as training support vector machines and the high-dimensional median. Consider a sequence of bits where we are trying to predict the next bit from the previous bits. Assume we are allowed to say 'predict 0' or 'predict 1', and our payoff is +1 if the prediction is correct and -1 otherwise. We will say that at each point in time the loss of an algorithm is the number of wrong predictions minus the number of right predictions so far. In this paper we are interested in algorithms that have essentially zero (expected) loss over any string at any point in time and yet have small regret with respect to always predicting 0 or always predicting 1. For a sequence of length @math our algorithm has regret @math and loss @math in expectation for all strings. We show that the tradeoff between loss and regret is optimal up to constant factors. Our techniques extend to the general setting of @math experts, where the related problem of trading off regret to the best expert for regret to the special' expert has been studied by Even- (COLT'07). We obtain essentially zero loss with respect to the special expert and optimal loss regret tradeoff, improving upon the results of Even- and settling the main question left open in their paper. The strong loss bounds of the algorithm have some surprising consequences. A simple iterative application of our algorithm gives essentially optimal regret bounds at multiple time scales, bounds with respect to @math -shifting optima as well as regret bounds with respect to higher norms of the input sequence. In the online linear optimization problem, a learner must choose, in each round, a decision from a set D ⊂ ℝn in order to minimize an (unknown and changing) linear cost function. We present sharp rates of convergence (with respect to additive regret) for both the full information setting (where the cost function is revealed at the end of each round) and the bandit setting (where only the scalar cost incurred is revealed). In particular, this paper is concerned with the price of bandit information, by which we mean the ratio of the best achievable regret in the bandit setting to that in the full-information setting. For the full information case, the upper bound on the regret is O*( √nT), where n is the ambient dimension and T is the time horizon. For the bandit case, we present an algorithm which achieves O*(n3 2 √T) regret — all previous (nontrivial) bounds here were O(poly(n)T2 3) or worse. It is striking that the convergence rate for the bandit setting is only a factor of n worse than in the full information case — in stark contrast to the K-arm bandit setting, where the gap in the dependence on K is exponential (√TK vs. √T log K). We also present lower bounds showing that this gap is at least √n, which we conjecture to be the correct order. The bandit algorithm we present can be implemented efficiently in special cases of particular interest, such as path planning and Markov Decision Problems. Many applications require optimizing an unknown, noisy function that is expensive to evaluate. We formalize this task as a multi-armed bandit problem, where the payoff function is either sampled from a Gaussian process (GP) or has low RKHS norm. We resolve the important open problem of deriving regret bounds for this setting, which imply novel convergence rates for GP optimization. We analyze GP-UCB, an intuitive upper-confidence based algorithm, and bound its cumulative regret in terms of maximal information gain, establishing a novel connection between GP optimization and experimental design. Moreover, by bounding the latter in terms of operator spectra, we obtain explicit sublinear regret bounds for many commonly used covariance functions. In some important cases, our bounds have surprisingly weak dependence on the dimensionality. In our experiments on real sensor data, GP-UCB compares favorably with other heuristical GP optimization approaches. We consider stochastic multi-armed bandit problems with complex actions over a set of basic arms, where the decision maker plays a complex action rather than a basic arm in each round. The reward of the complex action is some function of the basic arms' rewards, and the feedback observed may not necessarily be the reward perarm. For instance, when the complex actions are subsets of the arms, we may only observe the maximum reward over the chosen subset. Thus, feedback across complex actions may be coupled due to the nature of the reward function. We prove a frequentist regret bound for Thompson sampling in a very general setting involving parameter, action and observation spaces and a likelihood function over them. The bound holds for discretely-supported priors over the parameter space without additional structural properties such as closed-form posteriors, conjugate prior structure or independence across arms. The regret bound scales logarithmically with time but, more importantly, with an improved constant that non-trivially captures the coupling across complex actions due to the structure of the rewards. As applications, we derive improved regret bounds for classes of complex bandit problems involving selecting subsets of arms, including the first nontrivial regret bounds for nonlinear MAX reward feedback from subsets. Using particle filters for computing posterior distributions which lack an explicit closed-form, we present numerical results for the performance of Thompson sampling for subset-selection and job scheduling problems. We introduce the general and powerful scheme of predicting information re-use in optimization algorithms. This allows us to devise a computationally efficient algorithm for bandit convex optimization with new state-of-the-art guarantees for both Lipschitz loss functions and loss functions with Lipschitz gradients. This is the first algorithm admitting both a polynomial time complexity and a regret that is polynomial in the dimension of the action space that improves upon the original regret bound for Lipschitz loss functions, achieving a regret of @math . Our algorithm further improves upon the best existing polynomial-in-dimension bound (both computationally and in terms of regret) for loss functions with Lipschitz gradients, achieving a regret of @math .