Software development needs continuous quality control for a timely detection and removal of quality problems. This includes frequent quality assessments, which need to be automated as far as possible to be feasible. One way of automation in assessing the security of software are application scanners that test an executing software for vulnerabilities. At present, common quality assessments do not integrate such scanners for giving an overall quality statement. This paper presents an integration of application scanners into a general quality assessment method based on explicit quality models and Bayesian nets. Its applicability and the detection capabilities of common scanners are investigated in a case study with two open-source web shops.
@cite_20 use Dynamic Bayesian Networks to investigate the security of networked systems. Their focus is more on the combined effects of different vulnerabilities as opposed to a complete quality statement for the system incorporating scan results.
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Given the increasing dependence of our societies on networked information systems, the overall security of these systems should be measured and improved. Existing security metrics have generally focused on measuring individual vulnerabilities without considering their combined effects. Our previous work tackle this issue by exploring the causal relationships between vulnerabilities encoded in an attack graph. However, the evolving nature of vulnerabilities and networks has largely been ignored. In this paper, we propose a Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBNs)-based model to incorporate temporal factors, such as the availability of exploit codes or patches. Starting from the model, we study two concrete cases to demonstrate the potential applications. This novel model provides a theoretical foundation and a practical framework for continuously measuring network security in a dynamic environment. In recent years, Bayesian networks have become highly successful tool for diagnosis, analysis, and decision making in real-world domains. We present an efficient algorithm for learning Bayes networks from data. Our approach constructs Bayesian networks by first identifying each node's Markov blankets, then connecting nodes in a maximally consistent way. In contrast to the majority of work, which typically uses hill-climbing approaches that may produce dense and causally incorrect nets, our approach yields much more compact causal networks by heeding independencies in the data. Compact causal networks facilitate fast inference and are also easier to understand. We prove that under mild assumptions, our approach requires time polynomial in the size of the data and the number of nodes. A randomized variant, also presented here, yields comparable results at much higher speeds. We describe a Bayesian approach for learning Bayesian networks from a combination of prior knowledge and statistical data. First and foremost, we develop a methodology for assessing informative priors needed for learning. Our approach is derived from a set of assumptions made previously as well as the assumption of likelihood equivalence, which says that data should not help to discriminate network structures that represent the same assertions of conditional independence. We show that likelihood equivalence when combined with previously made assumptions implies that the user's priors for network parameters can be encoded in a single Bayesian network for the next case to be seen—a prior network—and a single measure of confidence for that network. Second, using these priors, we show how to compute the relative posterior probabilities of network structures given data. Third, we describe search methods for identifying network structures with high posterior probabilities. We describe polynomial algorithms for finding the highest-scoring network structures in the special case where every node has at most k e 1 parent. For the general case (k > 1), which is NP-hard, we review heuristic search algorithms including local search, iterative local search, and simulated annealing. Finally, we describe a methodology for evaluating Bayesian-network learning algorithms, and apply this approach to a comparison of various approaches. A quantitative and practical Bayesian framework is described for learning of mappings in feedforward networks. The framework makes possible (1) objective comparisons between solutions using alternative network architectures, (2) objective stopping rules for network pruning or growing procedures, (3) objective choice of magnitude and type of weight decay terms or additive regularizers (for penalizing large weights, etc.), (4) a measure of the effective number of well-determined parameters in a model, (5) quantified estimates of the error bars on network parameters and on network output, and (6) objective comparisons with alternative learning and interpolation models such as splines and radial basis functions. The Bayesian "evidence" automatically embodies "Occam's razor," penalizing overflexible and overcomplex models. The Bayesian approach helps detect poor underlying assumptions in learning models. For learning models well matched to a problem, a good correlation between generalization ability and the Bayesian evidence is obtained. We survey the literature on methods for inference and learning in Bayesian Networks composed of discrete and continuous nodes, in which the continuous nodes have a multivariate Gaussian distribution, whose mean and variance depends on the values of the discrete nodes. We also briefly consider hybrid Dynamic Bayesian Networks, an extension of switching Kalman filters. This report is meant to summarize what is known at a sufficient level of detail to enable someone to implement the algorithms, but without dwelling on formalities. A new method is proposed for exploiting causal independencies in exact Bayesian network inference. A Bayesian network can be viewed as representing a factorization of a joint probability into the multiplication of a set of conditional probabilities. We present a notion of causal independence that enables one to further factorize the conditional probabilities into a combination of even smaller factors and consequently obtain a finer-grain factorization of the joint probability. The new formulation of causal independence lets us specify the conditional probability of a variable given its parents in terms of an associative and commutative operator, such as "or", "sum" or "max", on the contribution of each parent. We start with a simple algorithm VE for Bayesian network inference that, given evidence and a query variable, uses the factorization to find the posterior distribution of the query. We show how this algorithm can be extended to exploit causal independence. Empirical studies, based on the CPCS networks for medical diagnosis, show that this method is more efficient than previous methods and allows for inference in larger networks than previous algorithms. We explore scalable and accurate dynamic pattern detection methods in graph-based data sets. We apply our proposed Dynamic Subset Scan method to the task of detecting, tracking, and source-tracing contaminant plumes spreading through a water distribution system equipped with noisy, binary sensors. While static patterns affect the same subset of data over a period of time, dynamic patterns may affect different subsets of the data at each time step. These dynamic patterns require a new approach to define and optimize penalized likelihood ratio statistics in the subset scan framework, as well as new computational techniques that scale to large, real-world networks. To address the first concern, we develop new subset scan methods that allow the detected subset of nodes to change over time, while incorporating temporal consistency constraints to reward patterns that do not dramatically change between adjacent time steps. Second, our Additive Graph Scan algorithm allows our novel scan statistic to process small graphs (500 nodes) in 4.1 seconds on average while maintaining an approximation ratio over 99 compared to an exact optimization method, and to scale to large graphs with over 12,000 nodes in 30 minutes on average. Evaluation results across multiple detection, tracking, and source-tracing tasks demonstrate substantial performance gains achieved by the Dynamic Subset Scan approach. The Bayesian analysis of neural networks is difficult because a simple prior over weights implies a complex prior distribution over functions. In this paper we investigate the use of Gaussian process priors over functions, which permit the predictive Bayesian analysis for fixed values of hyperparameters to be carried out exactly using matrix operations. Two methods, using optimization and averaging (via Hybrid Monte Carlo) over hyperparameters have been tested on a number of challenging problems and have produced excellent results. Bayesian logic programs tightly integrate definite logic programs with Bayesian networks in order to incorporate the notions of objects and relations into Bayesian networks. They establish a one-to-one mapping between ground atoms and random variables, and between the immediate consequence operator and the directly influenced by relation. In doing so, they nicely separate the qualitative (i.e. logical) component from the quantitative (i.e. the probabilistic) one providing a natural framework to describe general, probabilistic dependencies among sets of random variables. In this chapter, we present results on combining Inductive Logic Programming with Bayesian networks to learn both the qualitative and the quantitative components of Bayesian logic programs from data. More precisely, we show how the qualitative components can be learned by combining the inductive logic programming setting learning from interpretations with score-based techniques for learning Bayesian networks. The estimation of the quantitative components is reduced to the corresponding problem of (dynamic) Bayesian networks. Bayesian network (BN) models can be used to predict the level of fault injection in the different phases of the software development process. This paper describes the techniques used by Motorola to develop BN fault prediction models using product, usage and process information. It also includes a procedure created to validate and calibrate the BN models. Statistical techniques are applied that provide a measurement of the quality of the predictions made by the models, and directions on how the models could be improved. The validation method described in this paper considers two alternative ways to produce an improved network. The first is based mainly on modifying the ranges of the existing nodes, adding interdependencies between them, and varying the weight values associated with each of the nodes that are used as inputs to the intermediate nodes of the BN model. The second possibility uses linear regression and principal component analysis to build the intermediate and output nodes of the network. The paper closes with some encouraging results, and outlines a number of unresolved questions. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Collaborative filtering or recommender systems use a database about user preferences to predict additional topics or products a new user might like. In this paper we describe several algorithms designed for this task, including techniques based on correlation coefficients, vector-based similarity calculations, and statistical Bayesian methods. We compare the predictive accuracy of the various methods in a set of representative problem domains. We use two basic classes of evaluation metrics. The first characterizes accuracy over a set of individual predictions in terms of average absolute deviation. The second estimates the utility of a ranked list of suggested items. This metric uses an estimate of the probability that a user will see a recommendation in an ordered list. Experiments were run for datasets associated with 3 application areas, 4 experimental protocols, and the 2 evaluation metr rics for the various algorithms. Results indicate that for a wide range of conditions, Bayesian networks with decision trees at each node and correlation methods outperform Bayesian-clustering and vector-similarity methods. Between correlation and Bayesian networks, the preferred method depends on the nature of the dataset, nature of the application (ranked versus one-by-one presentation), and the availability of votes with which to make predictions. Other considerations include the size of database, speed of predictions, and learning time. We present a scalable nonparametric Bayesian method to perform network reconstruction from observed functional behavior, that at the same time infers the communities present in the network. We show that the joint reconstruction with community detection has a synergistic effect, where the edge correlations used to inform the existence of communities are inherently also used to improve the accuracy of the reconstruction, which in turn can better inform the uncovering of communities. We illustrate the use of our method with observations arising from epidemic models and the Ising model, both on synthetic and empirical networks, as well as on data containing only functional information. Bayesian networks, and especially their structures, are powerful tools for representing conditional independencies and dependencies between random variables. In applications where related variables form a priori known groups, chosen to represent different "views" to or aspects of the same entities, one may be more interested in modeling dependencies between groups of variables rather than between individual variables. Motivated by this, we study prospects of representing relationships between variable groups using Bayesian network structures. We show that for dependency structures between groups to be learnable, the data have to satisfy the so-called groupwise faithfulness assumption. We also show that one cannot learn causal relations between groups using only groupwise conditional independencies, but also variable-wise relations are needed. Additionally, we present algorithms for finding the groupwise dependency structures. The Bayesian framework for model comparison and regularisation is demonstrated by studying interpolation and classification problems modelled with both linear and non-linear models. This framework quantitatively embodies 'Occam's razor'. Over-complex and under-regularised models are automatically inferred to be less probable, even though their flexibility allows them to fit the data better. When applied to 'neural networks', the Bayesian framework makes possible (1) objective comparison of solutions using alternative network architectures; (2) objective stopping rules for network pruning or growing procedures; (3) objective choice of type of weight decay terms (or regularisers); (4) on-line techniques for optimising weight decay (or regularisation constant) magnitude; (5) a measure of the effective number of well-determined parameters in a model; (6) quantified estimates of the error bars on network parameters and on network output. In the case of classification models, it is shown that the careful incorporation of error bar information into a classifier's predictions yields improved performance. Comparisons of the inferences of the Bayesian framework with more traditional cross-validation methods help detect poor underlying assumptions in learning models. The relationship of the Bayesian learning framework to 'active learning' is examined. Objective functions are discussed which measure the expected informativeness of candidate data measurements, in the context of both interpolation and classification problems. The concepts and methods described in this thesis are quite general and will be applicable to other data modelling problems whether they involve regression, classification or density estimation. Buoyed by the success of deep multilayer neural networks, there is renewed interest in scalable learning of Bayesian neural networks. Here, we study algorithms that utilize recent advances in Bayesian inference to efficiently learn distributions over network weights. In particular, we focus on recently proposed assumed density filtering based methods for learning Bayesian neural networks – Expectation and Probabilistic backpropagation. Apart from scaling to large datasets, these techniques seamlessly deal with non-differentiable activation functions and provide parameter (learning rate, momentum) free learning. In this paper, we first rigorously compare the two algorithms and in the process develop several extensions, including a version of EBP for continuous regression problems and a PBP variant for binary classification. Next, we extend both algorithms to deal with multiclass classification and count regression problems. On a variety of diverse real world benchmarks, we find our extensions to be effective, achieving results competitive with the state-of-the-art. Bayesian networks, and especially their structures, are powerful tools for representing conditional independencies and dependencies between random variables. In applications where related variables form a priori known groups, chosen to represent different “views” to or aspects of the same entities, one may be more interested in modeling dependencies between groups of variables rather than between individual variables. Motivated by this, we study prospects of representing relationships between variable groups using Bayesian network structures. We show that for dependency structures between groups to be expressible exactly, the data have to satisfy the so-called groupwise faithfulness assumption. We also show that one cannot learn causal relations between groups using only groupwise conditional independencies, but also variable-wise relations are needed. Additionally, we present algorithms for finding the groupwise dependency structures. We study how to communicate findings of Bayesian inference to third parties, while preserving the strong guarantee of differential privacy. Our main contributions are four different algorithms for private Bayesian inference on proba-bilistic graphical models. These include two mechanisms for adding noise to the Bayesian updates, either directly to the posterior parameters, or to their Fourier transform so as to preserve update consistency. We also utilise a recently introduced posterior sampling mechanism, for which we prove bounds for the specific but general case of discrete Bayesian networks; and we introduce a maximum-a-posteriori private mechanism. Our analysis includes utility and privacy bounds, with a novel focus on the influence of graph structure on privacy. Worked examples and experiments with Bayesian na "i ve Bayes and Bayesian linear regression illustrate the application of our mechanisms. Learning the network structure of a large graph is computationally demanding, and dynamically monitoring the network over time for any changes in structure threatens to be more challenging still. This paper presents a two-stage method for anomaly detection in dynamic graphs: the first stage uses simple, conjugate Bayesian models for discrete time counting processes to track the pairwise links of all nodes in the graph to assess normality of behavior; the second stage applies standard network inference tools on a greatly reduced subset of potentially anomalous nodes. The utility of the method is demonstrated on simulated and real data sets. We describe algorithms for learning Bayesian networks from a combination of user knowledge and statistical data. The algorithms have two components: a scoring metric and a search procedure. The scoring metric takes a network structure, statistical data, and a user's prior knowledge, and returns a score proportional to the posterior probability of the network structure given the data. The search procedure generates networks for evaluation by the scoring metric. Our contributions are threefold. First, we identify two important properties of metrics, which we call event equivalence and parameter modularity. These properties have been mostly ignored, but when combined, greatly simplify the encoding of a user's prior knowledge. In particular, a user can express her knowledge-for the most part-as a single prior Bayesian network for the domain. Second, we describe local search and annealing algorithms to be used in conjunction with scoring metrics. In the special case where each node has at most one parent, we show that heuristic search can be replaced with a polynomial algorithm to identify the networks with the highest score. Third, we describe a methodology for evaluating Bayesian-network learning algorithms. We apply this approach to a comparison of metrics and search procedures. Bayesian models provide a framework for probabilistic modelling of complex datasets. However, many of such models are computationally demanding especially in the presence of large datasets. On the other hand, in sensor network applications, statistical (Bayesian) parameter estimation usually needs distributed algorithms, in which both data and computation are distributed across the nodes of the network. In this paper we propose a general framework for distributed Bayesian learning using Bregman Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (B-ADMM). We demonstrate the utility of our framework, with Mean Field Variational Bayes (MFVB) as the primitive for distributed Matrix Factorization (MF) and distributed affine structure from motion (SfM).