Complex networks are nowadays employed in several applications. Modeling urban street networks is one of them, and in particular to analyze criminal aspects of a city. Several research groups have focused on such application, but until now, there is a lack of a well-defined methodology for employing complex networks in a whole crime analysis process, i.e. from data preparation to a deep analysis of criminal communities. Furthermore, the “toolset” available for those works is not complete enough, also lacking techniques to maintain up-to-date, complete crime datasets and proper assessment measures. In this sense, we propose a threefold methodology for employing complex networks in the detection of highly criminal areas within a city. Our methodology comprises three tasks: (i) Mapping of Urban Crimes; (ii) Criminal Community Identification; and (iii) Crime Analysis. Moreover, it provides a proper set of assessment measures for analyzing intrinsic criminality of communities, especially when considering different crime types. We show our methodology by applying it to a real crime dataset from the city of San Francisco—CA, USA. The results confirm its effectiveness to identify and analyze high criminality areas within a city. Hence, our contributions provide a basis for further developments on complex networks applied to crime analysis.
Rey @cite_10 employ spatiotemporal techniques to represent and analyze urban crimes. Their approach provides a way to quantify neighborhood criminality and is able to identify patterns from the data. Moreover, they discuss spatial crime analyses as a way to determine the influence of a crime on its surroundings, analyzing an entire city and providing an evaluation of its crimes. However, their work is based on outdated data, derived from a police district in the period from 2005 to 2009. Besides, their methods rely on black-box GIS technologies, used to summarize criminal areas by geocoding each crime into a quarter-mile grid cell. Furthermore, they analyze only city cells having residential units.
@cite_10
2113796482 2301635754 2056712395 2155458379 121858502 1888064802 2129343844 2129784614 1978208906 2007027649 2115715042 2170245723 2953145849 2199318833 2113859792 2338768639 2053750911 2042323109 1484003379 86385803
This study proposes a street-level space‐time hotspot detection method to analyse crime incidents recorded at the street-address level and provides description of the micro-level variation of crime incidents over space and time. It expands the notion of search-window techniques widely used in crime science by developing a method that can account for the spatial‐temporal distribution of crime incidents measured in network distance. The study first describes the methodological framework by presenting the concept of a new type of search window and how it is used in the process of statistical testing for detecting crime hotspots. This is followed by analyses using 1 a simulated distribution of points along the street network, and 2 a set of real street-crime incident data. The simulation study demonstrates that the proposed method is effective in identifying space‐time hotspots, which include those that are not detected by a non-temporal method. The empirical analysis of the drug markets and assaults in downtown Buffalo, New York, revealed a detailed space‐time signature of each type of crime, highlighting the recurrent nature of drug dealing at specific locations as well as the sporadic tendency of assault incidents. Abstract Street profile analysis is a new method for analyzing temporal and spatial crime patterns along major roadways in metropolitan areas. This crime mapping technique allows for the identification of crime patterns along these street segments. These are linear spaces where aggregate crime patterns merge with crime attractors generators and human movement to demonstrate how directionality is embedded in city infrastructures. Visually presenting the interplay between these criminological concepts and land use can improve police crime management strategies. This research presents how this crime mapping technique can be applied to a major roadway in Burnaby, Canada. This technique is contrasted with other crime mapping methods to demonstrate the utility of this approach when analyzing the rate and velocity of crime patterns overtime and in space. Crime is classically âunpredictableâ. It is not necessarily random, but neither does it take place consistently in space or time. A better theoretical understanding is needed to facilitate practical crime prevention solutions that correspond to specific places and times. In this study, we discuss the preliminary results of a crime forecasting model developed in collaboration with the police department of a United States city in the Northeast. We first discuss our approach to architecting datasets from original crime records. The datasets contain aggregated counts of crime and crime-related events categorized by the police department. The location and time of these events is embedded in the data. Additional spatial and temporal features are harvested from the raw data set. Second, an ensemble of data mining classification techniques is employed to perform the crime forecasting. We analyze a variety of classification methods to determine which is best for predicting crime âhotspotsâ. We also investigate classification on increase or emergence. Last, we propose the best forecasting approach to achieve the most stable outcomes. The result of our research is a model that takes advantage of implicit and explicit spatial and temporal data to make reliable crime predictions. Motivated by empirical observations of spatio-temporal clusters of crime across a wide variety of urban settings, we present a model to study the emergence, dynamics, and steady-state properties of crime hotspots. We focus on a two-dimensional lattice model for residential burglary, where each site is characterized by a dynamic attractiveness variable, and where each criminal is represented as a random walker. The dynamics of criminals and of the attractiveness field are coupled to each other via specific biasing and feedback mechanisms. Depending on parameter choices, we observe and describe several regimes of aggregation, including hotspots of high criminal activity. On the basis of the discrete system, we also derive a continuum model; the two are in good quantitative agreement for large system sizes. By means of a linear stability analysis we are able to determine the parameter values that will lead to the creation of stable hotspots. We discuss our model and results in the context of established crim... It is undoubtedly cliche to say that we are in the Age of Big Data Analytics or Data Science; every computing and IT publication you find talks about Big Data and companies no longer are interested in software engineers and analysts but instead they are looking for Data Scientists! In spite of the excessive use of the term, the truth of the matter is that data has never been more available and the increase in computation power allows for more sophisticated tools to identify patterns in the data and on the networks that governs these systems (complex networks). Crime is not different, the open data phenomena has spread to thousand of cities in the world, which are making data about crime activity available for any citizen to look at. Furthermore, new criminology studies argue that criminals typically commit crimes in areas in which they are familiar, usually close to home. Using this information we propose a new model based on networks to build links between crimes in close physical proximity. We show that the structure of the criminal activity can be partially represented by this spatial network of sites. In this paper we describe this process and the analysis of the networks we have constructed to find patterns in the underlying structure of criminal activity. Objectives. We modeled the spatiotemporal movement of hotspot clusters of homicide by motive in Newark, New Jersey, to investigate whether different homicide types have different patterns of clustering and movement.Methods. We obtained homicide data from the Newark Police Department Homicide Unit’s investigative files from 1997 through 2007 (n = 560). We geocoded the address at which each homicide victim was found and recorded the date of and the motive for the homicide. We used cluster detection software to model the spatiotemporal movement of statistically significant homicide clusters by motive, using census tract and month of occurrence as the spatial and temporal units of analysis.Results. Gang-motivated homicides showed evidence of clustering and diffusion through Newark. Additionally, gang-motivated homicide clusters overlapped to a degree with revenge and drug-motivated homicide clusters. Escalating dispute and nonintimate familial homicides clustered; however, there was no evidence of diffusion. ... Pervasive infrastructures, such as cell phone networks, enable to capture large amounts of human behavioral data but also provide information about the structure of cities and their dynamical properties. In this article, we focus on these last aspects by studying phone data recorded during 55 days in 31 Spanish cities. We first define an urban dilatation index which measures how the average distance between individuals evolves during the day, allowing us to highlight different types of city structure. We then focus on hotspots, the most crowded places in the city. We propose a parameter free method to detect them and to test the robustness of our results. The number of these hotspots scales sublinearly with the population size, a result in agreement with previous theoretical arguments and measures on employment datasets. We study the lifetime of these hotspots and show in particular that the hierarchy of permanent ones, which constitute the ‘heart' of the city, is very stable whatever the size of the city. The spatial structure of these hotspots is also of interest and allows us to distinguish different categories of cities, from monocentric and “segregated” where the spatial distribution is very dependent on land use, to polycentric where the spatial mixing between land uses is much more important. These results point towards the possibility of a new, quantitative classification of cities using high resolution spatio-temporal data. Abstract This paper investigates the effect of economic conditions (carrots) and sanctions (sticks) on murder, assault, robbery, burglary, motor vehicle theft, grand larceny, and rape in New York City, using monthly time‐series data spanning 1974–99. Carrots are measured by the unemployment rate and the real minimum wage; sticks are measured by the number of felony arrests, size of the police force, and number of New York City residents in prison. In addition, the paper tests the validity of the “broken windows” hypothesis. Consistent with its implementation by the New York Police Department, we use misdemeanor arrests as a measure of broken‐windows policing. The broken‐windows hypothesis has validity in the case of robbery, motor vehicle theft, and grand larceny. While both economic and deterrence variables are important in explaining the decline in crime, the contribution of deterrence measures is larger than those of economic variables. Abstract This short paper introduces the six papers comprising the Special Section on Crime Forecasting. A longer title for the section could have been “Forecasting crime for policy and planning decisions and in support of tactical deployment of police resources.” Crime forecasting for police is relatively new. It has been made relevant by recent criminological theories, made possible by recent information technologies including geographic information systems (GIS), and made desirable because of innovative crime management practices. While focused primarily on the police component of the criminal justice system, the six papers provide a wide range of forecasting settings and models including UK and US jurisdictions, long- and short-term horizons, univariate and multivariate methods, and fixed boundary versus ad hoc spatial cluster areal units for the space and time series data. Furthermore, the papers include several innovations for forecast models, with many driven by unique features of the problem area and data. We present a method for automatically identifying and validating predictive relationships between the visual appearance of a city and its non-visual attributes (e.g. crime statistics, housing prices, population density etc.). Given a set of street-level images and (location, city-attribute-value) pairs of measurements, we first identify visual elements in the images that are discriminative of the attribute. We then train a predictor by learning a set of weights over these elements using non-linear Support Vector Regression. To perform these operations efficiently, we implement a scalable distributed processing framework that speeds up the main computational bottleneck (extracting visual elements) by an order of magnitude. This speedup allows us to investigate a variety of city attributes across 6 different American cities. We find that indeed there is a predictive relationship between visual elements and a number of city attributes including violent crime rates, theft rates, housing prices, population density, tree presence, graffiti presence, and the perception of danger. We also test human performance for predicting theft based on street-level images and show that our predictor outperforms this baseline with 33 higher accuracy on average. Finally, we present three prototype applications that use our system to (1) define the visual boundary of city neighborhoods, (2) generate walking directions that avoid or seek out exposure to city attributes, and (3) validate user-specified visual elements for prediction. CrimeStat is a spatial statistics program used in crime mapping. The program inputs incident or point locations and outputs statistics that can be displayed graphically in a geographic information systems (GIS) program. Among the routines are those for summary spatial description, hot spot analysis, interpolation, space–time analysis, and journey-to-crime modeling. Version 3.0 has a crime travel demand module for analyzing travel patterns over a metropolitan area. The program and documentation are distributed by the National Institute of Justice. In this paper, we describe a method to represent and discover adversarial group behavior in a continuous domain. In comparison to other types of behavior, adversarial behavior is heavily structured as the location of a player (or agent) is dependent both on their teammates and adversaries, in addition to the tactics or strategies of the team. We present a method which can exploit this relationship through the use of a spatiotemporal basis model. As players constantly change roles during a match, we show that employing a "role-based" representation instead of one based on player "identity" can best exploit the playing structure. As vision-based systems currently do not provide perfect detection tracking (e.g. missed or false detections), we show that our compact representation can effectively "denoise" erroneous detections as well as enabling temporal analysis, which was previously prohibitive due to the dimensionality of the signal. To evaluate our approach, we used a fully instrumented field-hockey pitch with 8 fixed high-definition (HD) cameras and evaluated our approach on approximately 200,000 frames of data from a state-of-the-art real-time player detector and compare it to manually labelled data. Understanding the spatiotemporal distribution of people within a city is crucial to many planning applications. Obtaining data to create required knowledge, currently involves costly survey methods. At the same time ubiquitous mobile sensors from personal GPS devices to mobile phones are collecting massive amounts of data on urban systems. The locations, communications, and activities of millions of people are recorded and stored by new information technologies. This work utilizes novel dynamic data, generated by mobile phone users, to measure spatiotemporal changes in population. In the process, we identify the relationship between land use and dynamic population over the course of a typical week. A machine learning classification algorithm is used to identify clusters of locations with similar zoned uses and mobile phone activity patterns. It is shown that the mobile phone data is capable of delivering useful information on actual land use that supplements zoning regulations. Advancements in mobile technology and computing have fostered the collection of a large number of civic datasets that capture the pulse of urban life. Furthermore, the open government and data initiative has led many local authorities to make these datasets publicly available, hoping to drive innovation that will further improve the quality of life for the city-dwellers. In this paper, we develop a novel application that utilizes crime data to provide safe urban navigation. Specifically, using crime data from Chicago and Philadelphia we develop a risk model for their street urban network, which allows us to estimate the relative probability of a crime on any road segment. Given such model we define two variants of the SafePaths problem where the goal is to find a short and low-risk path between a source and a destination location. Since both the length and the risk of the path are equally important but cannot be combined into a single objective, we approach the urban-navigation problem as a biobjective shortest path problem. Our algorithms aim to output a small set of paths that provide tradeoffs between distance and safety. Our experiments demonstrate the efficacy of our algorithms and their practical applicability. Thanks to the development of Mobile mapping systems (MMS), street object recognition, classification, modelling and related studies have become hot topics recently. There has been increasing interest in detecting changes between mobile laser scanning (MLS) point clouds in complex urban areas. A method based on the consistency between the occupancies of space computed from different datasets is proposed. First occupancy of scan rays (empty, occupied, unknown) are defined while considering the accuracy of measurement and registration. Then the occupancy of scan rays are fused using the Weighted Dempster‐Shafer theory (WDST). Finally, the consistency between different datasets is obtained by comparing the occupancy at points from one dataset with the fused occupancy of neighbouring rays from the other dataset. Change detection results are compared with a conventional point to triangle (PTT) distance method. Changes at point level are detected fully automatically. The proposed approach allows to detect changes at large scales in urban scenes with fine detail and more importantly, distinguish real changes from occlusions. Nowadays, human movement in urban spaces can be traced digitally in many cases. It can be observed that movement patterns are not constant, but vary across time and space. In this work, we characterize such spatio-temporal patterns with an innovative combination of two separate approaches that have been utilized for studying human mobility in the past. First, by using non-negative tensor factorization (NTF), we are able to cluster human behavior based on spatio-temporal dimensions. Second, for characterizing these clusters, we propose to use HypTrails, a Bayesian approach for expressing and comparing hypotheses about human trails. To formalize hypotheses, we utilize publicly available Web data (i.e., Foursquare and census data). By studying taxi data in Manhattan, we can discover and characterize human mobility patterns that cannot be identified in a collective analysis. As one example, we find a group of taxi rides that end at locations with a high number of party venues on weekend nights. Our findings argue for a more fine-grained analysis of human mobility in order to make informed decisions for e.g., enhancing urban structures, tailored traffic control and location-based recommender systems. In this paper, we propose a method to detect changes in the geometry of a city using panoramic images captured by a car driving around the city. We designed our approach to account for all the challenges involved in a large scale application of change detection, such as, inaccuracies in the input geometry, errors in the geo-location data of the images, as well as, the limited amount of information due to sparse imagery. We evaluated our approach on an area of 6 square kilometers inside a city, using 3420 images downloaded from Google Street View. These images besides being publicly available, are also a good example of panoramic images captured with a driving vehicle, and hence demonstrating all the possible challenges resulting from such an acquisition. We also quantitatively compared the performance of our approach with respect to a ground truth, as well as to prior work. This evaluation shows that our approach outperforms the current state of the art. We propose a method to detect changes in the geometry of a city using panoramic images captured by a car driving around the city. The proposed method can be used to significantly optimize the process of updating the 3D model of an urban environment that is changing over time, by restricting this process to only those areas where changes are detected. With this application in mind, we designed our algorithm to specifically detect only structural changes in the environment, ignoring any changes in its appearance, and ignoring also all the changes which are not relevant for update purposes such as cars, people etc. The approach also accounts for the challenges involved in a large scale application of change detection, such as inaccuracies in the input geometry, errors in the geo-location data of the images as well as the limited amount of information due to sparse imagery. We evaluated our approach on a small scale setup using high resolution, densely captured images and a large scale setup covering an entire city using instead the more realistic scenario of low resolution, sparsely captured images. A quantitative evaluation was also conducted for the large scale setup consisting of @math images. Preface to the Fifth Edition Acknowledgments About the Authors Chapter 1: Eight Fallacies about Crime The Dramatic Fallacy The Cops and Courts Fallacy The Not-Me Fallacy The Innocent- Youth Fallacy The Ingenuity Fallacy The Organized Crime Fallacy The Big Gang Fallacy The Agenda Fallacy Chapter 2: The Chemistry for Crime Risky Settings Stages of a Criminal Act First Three Elements of a Criminal Act Eck's Crime Triangle Predatory Crimes Calming the Waters and Looking after Places Hot Products The General Chemistry of Crime Chapter 3: Offenders Make Decisions The Decision to Commit a Crime Offenders Respond to Everyday Cues Odd and Bizarre Crimes Chapter 4: How Violence Erupts Making Students Angry in a Lab In Real Life Fights vs. Predatory Attacks Violent Decisions It Might Not Work Out Well Chapter 5: Bringing Crime to You Four Stages in the History of Everyday Life Life and Crime in the Convergent City Crime and the Divergent Metropolis Population Density, Shifts, and Patterns of Crime The Great Paradox: Central City Problems Versus Self-Report Evidence Chapter 6: Teenage Crime Perspective on Youth Crime Teenage Zigzags Chapter 7: Big Gang Theory What are Gang Crimes? Fundamentals The Puzzle The Reason for a Gang Chapter 8: Crime Multipliers One Crime Requires Another One Crime Disinhibits Another One Crime Advertises Another One Crime Entices Another One Crime Sets Up Another One Crime Escalates Into Another One Crime Starts A Victim Chain One Co-Offender Attacks Another Chapter 9: Moving Stolen Goods The Thief and the Public Inviting People to Steal More It's Easier to Sell Stolen Goods to the Poor New Avenues for Stolen Goods Chapter 10: Situational Crime Prevention Four Natural Experiments Situational Prevention and Crime Analysis Diverse Applications of Situational Crime Prevention Chapter 11: Local Design Against Crime Remarkable Research on Local Supervision Oscar Newman's Four Types of Space Versions of a Village The Offender-Target Convergence Process Seven Studies in Reducing Local Crime Chapter 12: "White-Collar" Crime How Offenders Get to Their Targets Crimes of Specialized Access Organizational Rank The Specialized-Access Crime Grid Chapter 13: Crime and Social Change Technology, Rightly Understood The Clean Water Example A General Approach: Summing Up This Book How to Think about Changing Crime References Index A methodological critique of Cantor and Land's (1985) approach to the time series analysis of the crime–unemployment relationship is developed. Error correction models for U.S. homicide and robbery rates for the years 1946–1997 are presented to illustrate procedures for analyzing nonstationary time series data. The critique is followed by a discussion of methodological problems in work by (1988), (1992), and Britt (1994, 1997) that builds on Cantor and Land's approach.