While a plethora of hypertext links exist on the Web, only a small amount of them are regularly clicked. Starting from this observation, we set out to study large-scale click data from Wikipedia in order to understand what makes a link successful. We systematically analyze effects of link properties on the popularity of links. By utilizing mixed-effects hurdle models supplemented with descriptive insights, we find evidence of user preference towards links leading to the periphery of the network, towards links leading to semantically similar articles, and towards links in the top and left-side of the screen. We integrate these findings as Bayesian priors into a navigational Markov chain model and by doing so successfully improve the model fits. We further adapt and improve the well-known classic PageRank algorithm that assumes random navigation by accounting for observed navigational preferences of users in a weighted variation. This work facilitates understanding navigational click behavior and thus can contribute to improving link structures and algorithms utilizing these structures.
Our work is also broadly connected to research studying click data in other contexts, e.g., characterizing user behavior and sybil detection in online social networks @cite_29 @cite_15 , improving search engine ranking functions @cite_9 @cite_11 @cite_42 @cite_16 @cite_1 , and marketing and next purchase prediction @cite_17 @cite_37 @cite_21 @cite_28 . However, these do not cover the specifics of large-scale information networks such as Wikipedia.
@cite_37 @cite_28 @cite_9 @cite_29 @cite_42 @cite_1 @cite_17 @cite_21 @cite_15 @cite_16 @cite_11
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We live in a computerized and networked society where many of our actions leave a digital trace and affect other people’s actions. This has lead to the emergence of a new data-driven research field: mathematical methods of computer science, statistical physics and sociometry provide insights on a wide range of disciplines ranging from social science to human mobility. A recent important discovery is that search engine traffic (i.e., the number of requests submitted by users to search engines on the www) can be used to track and, in some cases, to anticipate the dynamics of social phenomena. Successful examples include unemployment levels, car and home sales, and epidemics spreading. Few recent works applied this approach to stock prices and market sentiment. However, it remains unclear if trends in financial markets can be anticipated by the collective wisdom of on-line users on the web. Here we show that daily trading volumes of stocks traded in NASDAQ-100 are correlated with daily volumes of queries related to the same stocks. In particular, query volumes anticipate in many cases peaks of trading by one day or more. Our analysis is carried out on a unique dataset of queries, submitted to an important web search engine, which enable us to investigate also the user behavior. We show that the query volume dynamics emerges from the collective but seemingly uncoordinated activity of many users. These findings contribute to the debate on the identification of early warnings of financial systemic risk, based on the activity of users of the www. Recent advances in search users' click modeling consider both users' search queries and click skip behavior on documents to infer the user's perceived relevance. Most of these models, including dynamic Bayesian networks (DBN) and user browsing models (UBM), use probabilistic models to understand user click behavior based on individual queries. The user behavior is more complex when her actions to satisfy her information needs form a search session, which may include multiple queries and subsequent click behaviors on various items on search result pages. Previous research is limited to treating each query within a search session in isolation, without paying attention to their dynamic interactions with other queries in a search session. Investigating this problem, we consider the sequence of queries and their clicks in a search session as a task and propose a task-centric click model (TCM). TCM characterizes user behavior related to a task as a collective whole. Specifically, we identify and consider two new biases in TCM as the basis for user modeling. The first indicates that users tend to express their information needs incrementally in a task, and thus perform more clicks as their needs become clearer. The other illustrates that users tend to click fresh documents that are not included in the results of previous queries. Using these biases, TCM is more accurately able to capture user search behavior. Extensive experimental results demonstrate that by considering all the task information collectively, TCM can better interpret user click behavior and achieve significant improvements in terms of ranking metrics of NDCG and perplexity. An important part of finding information online involves clicking from page to page until an information need is fully satisfied. This is a complex task that can easily be frustrating and force users to give up prematurely. An empirical analysis of what makes users abandon click-based navigation tasks is hard, since most passively collected browsing logs do not specify the exact target page that a user was trying to reach. We propose to overcome this problem by using data collected via Wikispeedia, a Wikipedia-based human-computation game, in which users are asked to navigate from a start page to an explicitly given target page (both Wikipedia articles) by only tracing hyperlinks between Wikipedia articles. Our contributions are two-fold. First, by analyzing the differences between successful and abandoned navigation paths, we aim to understand what types of behavior are indicative of users giving up their navigation task. We also investigate how users make use of back clicks during their navigation. We find that users prefer backtracking to high-degree nodes that serve as landmarks and hubs for exploring the network of pages. Second, based on our analysis, we build statistical models for predicting whether a user will finish or abandon a navigation task, and if the next action will be a back click. Being able to predict these events is important as it can potentially help us design more human-friendly browsing interfaces and retain users who would otherwise have given up navigating a website. This paper intends to provide some insights of a scientific problem: how likely one's interests can be inferred from his her social connections -- friends, friends' friends, 3-degree friends, etc? Is "Birds of a Feather Flocks Together" a norm? We do not consider the friending activity on online social networking sites. Instead, we conduct this study by implementing a privacy-preserving large distribute social sensor system in a large global IT company to capture the multifaceted activities of 30,000+ people, including communications (e.g., emails, instant messaging, etc) and Web 2.0 activities (e.g., social bookmarking, file sharing, blogging, etc). These activities occupy the majority of employees' time in work, and thus, provide a high quality approximation to the real social connections of employees in the workplace context. In addition to such "informal networks", we investigated the "formal networks", such as their hierarchical structure, as well as the demographic profile data such as geography, job role, self-specified interests, etc. Because user ID matching across multiple sources on the Internet is very difficult, and most user activity logs have to be anonymized before they are processed, no prior studies could collect comparable multifaceted activity data of individuals. That makes this study unique. In this paper, we present a technique to predict the inference quality by utilizing (1) network analysis and network autocorrelation modeling of informal and formal networks, and (2) regression models to predict user interest inference quality from network characteristics. We verify our findings with experiments on both implicit user interests indicated by the content of communications or Web 2.0 activities, and explicit user interests specified in user profiles. We demonstrate that the inference quality prediction increases the inference quality of implicit interests by 42.8 , and inference quality of explicit interests by up to 101 . Click prediction is one of the fundamental problems in sponsored search. Most of existing studies took advantage of machine learning approaches to predict ad click for each event of ad view independently. However, as observed in the real-world sponsored search system, user's behaviors on ads yield high dependency on how the user behaved along with the past time, especially in terms of what queries she submitted, what ads she clicked or ignored, and how long she spent on the landing pages of clicked ads, etc. Inspired by these observations, we introduce a novel framework based on Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN). Compared to traditional methods, this framework directly models the dependency on user's sequential behaviors into the click prediction process through the recurrent structure in RNN. Large scale evaluations on the click-through logs from a commercial search engine demonstrate that our approach can significantly improve the click prediction accuracy, compared to sequence-independent approaches. The concern of privacy has become an important issue for online social networks. In services such as Foursquare.com, whether a person likes an article is considered private and therefore not disclosed; only the aggregative statistics of articles (i.e., how many people like this article) is revealed. This paper tries to answer a question: can we predict the opinion holder in a heterogeneous social network without any labeled data? This question can be generalized to a link prediction with aggregative statistics problem. This paper devises a novel unsupervised framework to solve this problem, including two main components: (1) a three-layer factor graph model and three types of potential functions; (2) a ranked-margin learning and inference algorithm. Finally, we evaluate our method on four diverse prediction scenarios using four datasets: preference (Foursquare), repost (Twitter), response (Plurk), and citation (DBLP). We further exploit nine unsupervised models to solve this problem as baselines. Our approach not only wins out in all scenarios, but on the average achieves 9.90 AUC and 12.59 NDCG improvement over the best competitors. The resources are available at http: www.csie.ntu.edu.tw d97944007 aggregative Search engine click logs provide an invaluable source of relevance information but this information is biased because we ignore which documents from the result list the users have actually seen before and after they clicked. Otherwise, we could estimate document relevance by simple counting. In this paper, we propose a set of assumptions on user browsing behavior that allows the estimation of the probability that a document is seen, thereby providing an unbiased estimate of document relevance. To train, test and compare our model to the best alternatives described in the Literature, we gather a large set of real data and proceed to an extensive cross-validation experiment. Our solution outperforms very significantly all previous models. As a side effect, we gain insight into the browsing behavior of users and we can compare it to the conclusions of an eye-tracking experiments by [12]. In particular, our findings confirm that a user almost always see the document directly after a clicked document. They also explain why documents situated just after a very relevant document are clicked more often. In this paper, we present the results of a user study on exploratory search activities in a social science digital library. We conducted a user study with 32 participants with a social sciences background—16 postdoctoral researchers and 16 students—who were asked to solve a task on searching related work to a given topic. The exploratory search task was performed in a 10-min time slot. The use of certain search activities is measured and compared to gaze data recorded with an eye tracking device. We use a novel tree graph representation to visualise the users’ search patterns and introduce a way to combine multiple search session trees. The tree graph representation is capable of creating one single tree for multiple users and identifying common search patterns. In addition, the information behaviour of students and postdoctoral researchers is being compared. The results show that search activities on the stratagem level are frequently utilised by both user groups. The most heavily used search activities were keyword search, followed by browsing through references and citations, and author searching. The eye tracking results showed an intense examination of documents metadata, especially on the level of citations and references. When comparing the group of students and postdoctoral researchers, we found significant differences regarding gaze data on the area of the journal name of the seed document. In general, we found a tendency of the postdoctoral researchers to examine the metadata records more intensively with regard to dwell time and the number of fixations. By creating combined session trees and deriving subtrees from those, we were able to identify common patterns like economic (explorative) and exhaustive (navigational) behaviour. Our results show that participants utilised multiple search strategies starting from the seed document, which means that they examined different paths to find related publications. Abstract Using the clickstream data recorded in Web server log files, the authors develop and estimate a model of the browsing behavior of visitors to a Web site. Two basic aspects of browsing behavior are examined: (1) the visitor’s decisions to continue browsing (by submitting an additional page request) or to exit the site and (2) the length of time spent viewing each page. The authors propose a type II tobit model that captures both aspects of browsing behavior and handles the limitations of server log-file data. The authors fit the model to the individual-level browsing decisions of a random sample of 5000 visitors to the Web site of an Internet automotive company. Empirical results show that visitors’ propensity to continue browsing changes dynamically as a function of the depth of a given site visit and the number of repeat visits to the site. The dynamics are consistent both with “within-site lock-in” or site “stickiness” and with learning that carries over repeat visits. In particular, repeat vis... Abstract The authors develop and estimate a model of online buying using clickstream data from a Web site that sells cars. The model predicts online buying by linking the purchase decision to what visitors do and to what they are exposed to while at the site. To overcome the challenges of predicting Internet buying, the authors decompose the purchase process into the completion of sequential nominal user tasks and account for heterogeneity across visitors at the county level. Using a sequence of binary probits, the authors model the visitor’s decision of whether to complete each task for the first time, given that the visitor has completed the previous tasks at least once. The results indicate that visitors’ browsing experiences and navigational behavior predict task completion for all decision levels. The results also indicate that the number of repeat visits per se is not diagnostic of buying propensity and that a site’s offering of sophisticated decision aids does not guarantee increased conversion rat... This empirical study investigates the contribution of different types of predictors to the purchasing behaviour at an online store. We use logit modelling to predict whether or not a purchase is made during the next visit to the website using both forward and backward variable-selection techniques, as well as Furnival and Wilson’s global score search algorithm to find the best subset of predictors. We contribute to the literature by using variables from four different categories in predicting online-purchasing behaviour: (1) general clickstream behaviour at the level of the visit, (2) more detailed clickstream information, (3) customer demographics, and (4) historical purchase behaviour. The results show that predictors from all four categories are retained in the final (best subset) solution indicating that clickstream behaviour is important when determining the tendency to buy. We clearly indicate the contribution in predictive power of variables that were never used before in online purchasing studies. Detailed clickstream variables are the most important ones in classifying customers according to their online purchase behaviour. In doing so, we are able to highlight the advantage of e-commerce retailers of being able to capture an elaborate list of customer information. We consider the problem of using a large unlabeled sample to boost performance of a learning algorit,hrn when only a small set of labeled examples is available. In particular, we consider a problem setting motivated by the task of learning to classify web pages, in which the description of each example can be partitioned into two distinct views. For example, the description of a web page can be partitioned into the words occurring on that page, and the words occurring in hyperlinks t,hat point to that page. We assume that either view of the example would be sufficient for learning if we had enough labeled data, but our goal is to use both views together to allow inexpensive unlabeled data to augment, a much smaller set of labeled examples. Specifically, the presence of two distinct views of each example suggests strategies in which two learning algorithms are trained separately on each view, and then each algorithm’s predictions on new unlabeled examples are used to enlarge the training set of the other. Our goal in this paper is to provide a PAC-style analysis for this setting, and, more broadly, a PAC-style framework for the general problem of learning from both labeled and unlabeled data. We also provide empirical results on real web-page data indicating that this use of unlabeled examples can lead to significant improvement of hypotheses in practice. *This research was supported in part by the DARPA HPKB program under contract F30602-97-1-0215 and by NSF National Young investigator grant CCR-9357793. Permission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. TO copy otherwise, to republish, to post on servers or to redistribute to lists, requires prior specific permission and or a fee. COLT 98 Madison WI USA Copyright ACM 1998 l-58113-057--0 98 7... 5.00 92 Tom Mitchell School of Computer Science Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh, PA 15213-3891 mitchell+@cs.cmu.edu Image reranking is effective for improving the performance of a text-based image search. However, existing reranking algorithms are limited for two main reasons: 1) the textual meta-data associated with images is often mismatched with their actual visual content and 2) the extracted visual features do not accurately describe the semantic similarities between images. Recently, user click information has been used in image reranking, because clicks have been shown to more accurately describe the relevance of retrieved images to search queries. However, a critical problem for click-based methods is the lack of click data, since only a small number of web images have actually been clicked on by users. Therefore, we aim to solve this problem by predicting image clicks. We propose a multimodal hypergraph learning-based sparse coding method for image click prediction, and apply the obtained click data to the reranking of images. We adopt a hypergraph to build a group of manifolds, which explore the complementarity of different features through a group of weights. Unlike a graph that has an edge between two vertices, a hyperedge in a hypergraph connects a set of vertices, and helps preserve the local smoothness of the constructed sparse codes. An alternating optimization procedure is then performed, and the weights of different modalities and the sparse codes are simultaneously obtained. Finally, a voting strategy is used to describe the predicted click as a binary event (click or no click), from the images' corresponding sparse codes. Thorough empirical studies on a large-scale database including nearly 330 K images demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach for click prediction when compared with several other methods. Additional image reranking experiments on real-world data show the use of click prediction is beneficial to improving the performance of prominent graph-based image reranking algorithms. This paper presents findings from a study of how knowledge workers use the Web to seek external information as part of their daily work. Thirty-four users from seven companies took part in the study. Participants were mainly IT specialists, managers, and research marketing consulting staff working in organizations that included a large utility company, a major bank, and a consulting firm. Participants answered a detailed questionnaire and were interviewed individually in order to understand their information needs and information seeking preferences. A custom-developed WebTracker software application was installed on each of their work place PCs, and participants' Web-use activities were then recorded continuously during two-week periods. The WebTracker recorded how participants used the browser to seek information on the Web: it logged menu choices, button bar selections, and keystroke actions, allowing browsing and searching sequences to be reconstructed. In a second round of personal interviews, participants recalled critical incidents of using information from the Web. Data from the two interviews and the WebTracker logs constituted the database for analysis. Sixty-one significant episodes of information seeking were identified. A model was developed to describe the common repertoires of information seeking that were observed. On one axis of the model, episodes were plotted according to the four scanning modes identified by Aguilar (1967), Weick and Daft (1983): undirected viewing, conditioned viewing, informal search, and formal search. Each mode is characterized by its own information needs and information seeking strategies. On the other axis of the model, episodes were plotted according to the occurrence of one or more of the six categories of information seeking behaviors identified by Ellis (1989, 1990): starting, chaining, browsing, differentiating, monitoring, and extracting. The study suggests that a behavioral framework that relates motivations (Aguilar) and moves (Ellis) may be helpful in analyzing patterns of Web-based information seeking. The advent of the Internet has made the transmission of personally identifiable information more common and often unintended by the user. As personal information becomes more accessible, individuals worry that businesses misuse the information that is collected while they are online. Organizations have tried to mitigate this concern in two ways: (1) by offering privacy policies regarding the handling and use of personal information and (2) by offering benefits such as financial gains or convenience. In this paper, we interpret these actions in the context of the information-processing theory of motivation. Information-processing theories, also known as expectancy theories in the context of motivated behavior, are built on the premise that people process information about behavior-outcome relationships. By doing so, they are forming expectations and making decisions about what behavior to choose. Using an experimental setting, we empirically validate predictions that the means to mitigate privacy concerns are associated with positive valences resulting in an increase in motivational score. In a conjoint analysis exercise, 268 participants from the United States and Singapore face trade-off situations, where an organization may only offer incomplete privacy protection or some benefits. While privacy protections (against secondary use, improper access, and error) are associated with positive valences, we also find that financial gains and convenience can significantly increase individuals' motivational score of registering with a Web site. We find that benefits-monetary reward and future convenience-significantly affect individuals' preferences over Web sites with differing privacy policies. We also quantify the value of Web site privacy protection. Among U.S. subjects, protection against errors, improper access, and secondary use of personal information is worth @math 44.62. Finally, our approach also allows us to identify three distinct segments of Internet users-privacy guardians, information sellers, and convenience seekers. To reveal information hiding in link space of bibliographical networks, link analysis has been studied from different perspectives in recent years. In this paper, we address a novel problem namely citation prediction, that is: given information about authors, topics, target publication venues as well as time of certain research paper, finding and predicting the citation relationship between a query paper and a set of previous papers. Considering the gigantic size of relevant papers, the loosely connected citation network structure as well as the highly skewed citation relation distribution, citation prediction is more challenging than other link prediction problems which have been studied before. By building a meta-path based prediction model on a topic discriminative search space, we here propose a two-phase citation probability learning approach, in order to predict citation relationship effectively and efficiently. Experiments are performed on real-world dataset with comprehensive measurements, which demonstrate that our framework has substantial advantages over commonly used link prediction approaches in predicting citation relations in bibliographical networks. Getting a better understanding of user behavior is important for advancing information retrieval systems. Existing work focuses on modeling and predicting single interaction events, such as clicks. In this paper, we for the first time focus on modeling and predicting sequences of interaction events. And in particular, sequences of clicks. We formulate the problem of click sequence prediction and propose a click sequence model (CSM) that aims to predict the order in which a user will interact with search engine results. CSM is based on a neural network that follows the encoder-decoder architecture. The encoder computes contextual embeddings of the results. The decoder predicts the sequence of positions of the clicked results. It uses an attention mechanism to extract necessary information about the results at each timestep. We optimize the parameters of CSM by maximizing the likelihood of observed click sequences. We test the effectiveness of CSM on three new tasks: (i) predicting click sequences, (ii) predicting the number of clicks, and (iii) predicting whether or not a user will interact with the results in the order these results are presented on a search engine result page (SERP). Also, we show that CSM achieves state-of-the-art results on a standard click prediction task, where the goal is to predict an unordered set of results a user will click on. As with any application of machine learning, web search ranking requires labeled data. The labels usually come in the form of relevance assessments made by editors. Click logs can also provide an important source of implicit feedback and can be used as a cheap proxy for editorial labels. The main difficulty however comes from the so called position bias - urls appearing in lower positions are less likely to be clicked even if they are relevant. In this paper, we propose a Dynamic Bayesian Network which aims at providing us with unbiased estimation of the relevance from the click logs. Experiments show that the proposed click model outperforms other existing click models in predicting both click-through rate and relevance. We consider the problem of estimating occurrence rates of rare eventsfor extremely sparse data, using pre-existing hierarchies to perform inference at multiple resolutions. In particular, we focus on the problem of estimating click rates for (webpage, advertisement) pairs (called impressions) where both the pages and the ads are classified into hierarchies that capture broad contextual information at different levels of granularity. Typically the click rates are low and the coverage of the hierarchies is sparse. To overcome these difficulties we devise a sampling method whereby we analyze aspecially chosen sample of pages in the training set, and then estimate click rates using a two-stage model. The first stage imputes the number of (webpage, ad) pairs at all resolutions of the hierarchy to adjust for the sampling bias. The second stage estimates clickrates at all resolutions after incorporating correlations among sibling nodes through a tree-structured Markov model. Both models are scalable and suited to large scale data mining applications. On a real-world dataset consisting of 1 2 billion impressions, we demonstrate that even with 95 negative (non-clicked) events in the training set, our method can effectively discriminate extremely rare events in terms of their click propensity. The paper proposes identifying relevant information sources from the history of combined searching and browsing behavior of many Web users. While it has been previously shown that user interactions with search engines can be employed to improve document ranking, browsing behavior that occurs beyond search result pages has been largely overlooked in prior work. The paper demonstrates that users' post-search browsing activity strongly reflects implicit endorsement of visited pages, which allows estimating topical relevance of Web resources by mining large-scale datasets of search trails. We present heuristic and probabilistic algorithms that rely on such datasets for suggesting authoritative websites for search queries. Experimental evaluation shows that exploiting complete post-search browsing trails outperforms alternatives in isolation (e.g., clickthrough logs), and yields accuracy improvements when employed as a feature in learning to rank for Web search.