Unexpected increases in demand and most of all flash crowds are considered the bane of every web application as they may cause intolerable delays or even service unavailability. Proper quality of service policies must guarantee rapid reactivity and responsiveness even in such critical situations. Previous solutions fail to meet common performance requirements when the system has to face sudden and unpredictable surges of traffic. Indeed they often rely on a proper setting of key parameters which requires laborious manual tuning, preventing a fast adaptation of the control policies. We contribute an original Self-* Overload Control (SOC) policy. This allows the system to self-configure a dynamic constraint on the rate of admitted sessions in order to respect service level agreements and maximize the resource utilization at the same time. Our policy does not require any prior information on the incoming traffic or manual configuration of key parameters. We ran extensive simulations under a wide range of operating conditions, showing that SOC rapidly adapts to time varying traffic and self-optimizes the resource utilization. It admits as many new sessions as possible in observance of the agreements, even under intense workload variations. We compared our algorithm to previously proposed approaches highlighting a more stable behavior and a better performance.
The problem of designing adaptive component-level thresholds is analyzed in @cite_17 for a general context of autonomic computing. The mechanism proposed in the paper consists in monitoring the threshold values in use by keeping track of false alarms with respect to possible violations of service level agreements. A regression model is used to to fit the observed history. When a sufficiently confident fit is attained the thresholds are calculated accordingly. On the contrary if the required confidence is not attained, the thresholds are set to random values as if there was no history. A critical problem of this proposal is the fact that the most common threshold policies cause on off behaviors that often result in unacceptable performance. Our proposal is instead based on a probabilistic approach and on a learning technique, that dynamically creates a knowledge basis for the online evaluation of the best decision to make even for traffic situations that never occurred in the past history.
@cite_17
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Threshold violations reported for system components signal undesirable conditions in the system. In complex computer systems, characterized by dynamically changing workload patterns and evolving business goals, the pre-computed performance thresholds on the operational values of performance metrics of individual system components are not available. This paper focuses on a fundamental enabling technology for performance management: automatic computation and adaptation of statistically meaningful performance thresholds for system components. We formally define the problem of adaptive threshold setting with controllable accuracy of the thresholds and propose a novel algorithm for solving it. Given a set of Service Level Objectives (SLOs) of the applications executing in the system, our algorithm continually adapts the per-component performance thresholds to the observed SLO violations. The purpose of this continual threshold adaptation is to control the average amounts of false positive and false negative alarms to improve the efficacy of the threshold-based management. We implemented the proposed algorithm and applied it to a relatively simple, albeit non-trivial, storage system. In our experiments we achieved a positive predictive value of 92 and a negative predictive value of 93 for component level performance thresholds This paper explores a class of empirical Bayes methods for level-dependent threshold selection in wavelet shrinkage. The prior considered for each wavelet coefficient is a mixture of an atom of probability at zero and a heavy-tailed density. The mixing weight, or sparsity parameter, for each level of the transform is chosen by marginal maximum likelihood. If estimation is carried out using the posterior median, this is a random thresholding procedure; the estimation can also be carried out using other thresholding rules with the same threshold. Details of the calculations needed for implementing the procedure are included. In practice, the estimates are quick to compute and there is software available. Simulations on the standard model functions show excellent performance, and applications to data drawn from various fields of application are used to explore the practical performance of the approach. By using a general result on the risk of the corresponding marginal maximum likelihood approach for a single sequence, overall bounds on the risk of the method are found subject to membership of the unknown function in one of a wide range of Besov classes, covering also the case of f of bounded variation. The rates obtained are optimal for any value of the parameter p in (0, ∞], simultaneously for a wide range of loss functions, each dominating the Lq norm of the σth derivative, with σ ≥ 0 and 0 < q ≤ 2. Attention is paid to the distinction between sampling the unknown function within white noise and sampling at discrete points, and between placing constraints on the function itself and on the discrete wavelet transform of its sequence of values at the observation points. Results for all relevant combinations of these scenarios are obtained. In some cases a key feature of the theory is a particular boundary-corrected wavelet basis, details of which are discussed. Overall, the approach described seems so far unique in combining the properties of fast computation, good theoretical properties and good performance in simulations and in practice. A key feature appears to be that the estimate of sparsity adapts to three different zones of estimation, first where the signal is not sparse enough for thresholding to be of benefit, second where an appropriately chosen threshold results in substantially improved estimation, and third where the signal is so sparse that the zero estimate gives the optimum accuracy rate. This paper presents a safe learning framework that employs an adaptive model learning method together with barrier certificates for systems with possibly nonstationary agent dynamics. To extract the dynamic structure of the model, we use a sparse optimization technique, and the resulting model will be used in combination with control barrier certificates which constrain policies (feedback controllers) in order to maintain safety, which refers to avoiding certain regions of the state space. Under certain conditions, recovery of safety in the sense of Lyapunov stability after violations of safety due to the nonstationarity is guaranteed. In addition, we reformulate action-value function approximation to make any kernel-based nonlinear function estimation method applicable to our adaptive learning framework. Lastly, solutions to the barrier-certified policy optimization are guaranteed to be globally optimal, ensuring greedy policy updates under mild conditions. The resulting framework is validated via simulations of a quadrotor, which has been used in the safe learnings literature under stationarity assumption, and then tested on a real robot called brushbot , whose dynamics is unknown, highly complex, and most probably nonstationary. Structure from Motion (SfM) algorithms take as input multi-view stereo images (along with internal calibration information) and yield a 3D point cloud and camera orientations poses in a common 3D coordinate system. In the case of an incremental SfM pipeline, the process requires repeated model estimations based on detected feature points: homography, fundamental and essential matrices, as well as camera poses. These estimations have a crucial impact on the quality of 3D reconstruction. We propose to improve these estimations using the a contrario methodology. While SfM pipelines usually have globally-fixed thresholds for model estimation, the a contrario principle adapts thresholds to the input data and for each model estimation. Our experiments show that adaptive thresholds reach a significantly better precision. Additionally, the user is free from having to guess thresholds or to optimistically rely on default values. There are also cases where a globally-fixed threshold policy, whatever the threshold value is, cannot provide the best accuracy, contrary to an adaptive threshold policy. This paper describes a methodology for detecting anomalies from sequentially observed and potentially noisy data. The proposed approach consists of two main elements: 1) filtering, or assigning a belief or likelihood to each successive measurement based upon our ability to predict it from previous noisy observations and 2) hedging, or flagging potential anomalies by comparing the current belief against a time-varying and data-adaptive threshold. The threshold is adjusted based on the available feedback from an end user. Our algorithms, which combine universal prediction with recent work on online convex programming, do not require computing posterior distributions given all current observations and involve simple primal-dual parameter updates. At the heart of the proposed approach lie exponential-family models which can be used in a wide variety of contexts and applications, and which yield methods that achieve sublinear per-round regret against both static and slowly varying product distributions with marginals drawn from the same exponential family. Moreover, the regret against static distributions coincides with the minimax value of the corresponding online strongly convex game. We also prove bounds on the number of mistakes made during the hedging step relative to the best offline choice of the threshold with access to all estimated beliefs and feedback signals. We validate the theory on synthetic data drawn from a time-varying distribution over binary vectors of high dimensionality, as well as on the Enron email dataset. Determining a detection threshold to automatically maintain a low false alarm rate is a challenging problem. In a number of different applications, the underlying parametric assumptions of most automatic target detection algorithms are invalid. Therefore, thresholds derived using these incorrect distribution assumptions do not produce desirable results when applied to real sensor data. Monte Carlo methods for threshold determination work well but tend to perform poorly when targets are present. In order to mitigate these effects, we propose an algorithm using extreme value theory through the use of the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) and a Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistical test. Unlike previous work based on GPD estimates, this algorithm incorporates a way to adaptively maintain low false alarm rates in the presence of targets. Both synthetic and real-world detection results demonstrate the usefulness of this algorithm. This paper examines the close interplay between cooperation and adaptation for distributed detection schemes over fully decentralized networks. The combined attributes of cooperation and adaptation are necessary to enable networks of detectors to continually learn from streaming data and to continually track drifts in the state of nature when deciding in favor of one hypothesis or another. The results in this paper establish a fundamental scaling law for the steady-state probabilities of miss detection and false alarm in the slow adaptation regime, when the agents interact with each other according to distributed strategies that employ small constant step-sizes. The latter are critical to enable continuous adaptation and learning. This paper establishes three key results. First, it is shown that the output of the collaborative process at each agent has a steady-state distribution. Second, it is shown that this distribution is asymptotically Gaussian in the slow adaptation regime of small step-sizes. Third, by carrying out a detailed large deviations analysis, closed-form expressions are derived for the decaying rates of the false-alarm and miss-detection probabilities. Interesting insights are gained from these expressions. In particular, it is verified that as the step-size @math decreases, the error probabilities are driven to zero exponentially fast as functions of @math , and that the exponents governing the decay increase linearly in the number of agents. It is also verified that the scaling laws governing the errors of detection and the errors of estimation over the network behave very differently, with the former having exponential decay proportional to @math , while the latter scales linearly with decay proportional to @math . Moreover, and interestingly, it is shown that the cooperative strategy allows each agent to reach the same detection performance, in terms of detection error exponents, of a centralized stochastic-gradient solution. The results of this paper are illustrated by applying them to canonical distributed detection problems. This paper considers a sparse signal recovery task in time-varying (time-adaptive) environments. The contribution of the paper to sparsity-aware online learning is threefold; first, a generalized thresholding (GT) operator, which relates to both convex and non-convex penalty functions, is introduced. This operator embodies, in a unified way, the majority of well-known thresholding rules which promote sparsity. Second, a non-convexly constrained, sparsity-promoting, online learning scheme, namely the adaptive projection-based generalized thresholding (APGT), is developed that incorporates the GT operator with a computational complexity that scales linearly to the number of unknowns. Third, the novel family of partially quasi-nonexpansive mappings is introduced as a functional analytic tool for treating the GT operator. By building upon the rich fixed point theory, the previous class of mappings establishes also a link between the GT operator and a union of linear subspaces; a non-convex object which lies at the heart of any sparsity promoting technique, batch or online. Based on this functional analytic framework, a convergence analysis of the APGT is provided. Extensive experiments suggest that the APGT exhibits competitive performance when compared to computationally more demanding alternatives, such as the sparsity-promoting affine projection algorithm (APA)- and recursive least-squares (RLS)-based techniques. Threshold functions and related operators are widely used as basic elements of adaptive and associative networks [Nakano 72, Amari 72, Hopfield 82]. There exist numerous learning rules for finding a set of weights to achieve a particular correspondence between input-output pairs. But early works in the field have shown that the number of threshold functions (or linearly separable functions) in N binary variables is small compared to the number of all possible boolean mappings in N variables, especially if N is large. This problem is one of the main limitations of most neural networks models where the state is fully specified by the environment during learning: they can only learn linearly separable functions of their inputs. Moreover, a learning procedure which requires the outside world to specify the state of every neuron during the learning session can hardly be considered as a general learning rule because in real-world conditions, only a partial information on the “ideal” network state for each task is available from the environment. It is possible to use a set of so-called “hidden units” [Hinton,Sejnowski,Ackley. 84], without direct interaction with the environment, which can compute intermediate predicates. Unfortunately, the global response depends on the output of a particular hidden unit in a highly non-linear way, moreover the nature of this dependence is influenced by the states of the other cells. This paper introduces a framework for inference of timed temporal logic properties from data. The dataset is given as a finite set of pairs of finite-time system traces and labels, where the labels indicate whether the traces exhibit some desired behavior (e.g., a ship traveling along a safe route). We propose a decision-tree based approach for learning signal temporal logic classifiers. The method produces binary decision trees that represent the inferred formulae. Each node of the tree contains a test associated with the satisfaction of a simple formula, optimally tuned from a predefined finite set of primitives. Optimality is assessed using heuristic impurity measures, which capture how well the current primitive splits the data with respect to the traces' labels. We propose extensions of the usual impurity measures from machine learning literature to handle classification of system traces by leveraging upon the robustness degree concept. The proposed incremental construction procedure greatly improves the execution time and the accuracy compared to existing algorithms. We present two case studies that illustrate the usefulness and the computational advantages of the algorithms. The first is an anomaly detection problem in a maritime environment. The second is a fault detection problem in an automotive powertrain system. This paper considers the inverse problem with observed variables Y = BGX ⊕Z, where BG is the incidence matrix of a graph G, X is the vector of unknown vertex variables with a uniform prior, and Z is a noise vector with Bernoulli(e) i.i.d. entries. All variables and operations are Boolean. This model is motivated by coding, synchronization, and community detection problems. In particular, it corresponds to a stochastic block model or a correlation clustering problem with two communities and censored edges. Without noise, exact recovery of X is possible if and only the graph G is connected, with a sharp threshold at the edge probability log(n) n for Erdős-Renyi random graphs. The first goal of this paper is to determine how the edge probability p needs to scale to allow exact recovery in the presence of noise. Defining the degree (oversampling) rate of the graph by α = np log(n), it is shown that exact recovery is possible if and only if α > 2 (1−2e)+o(1 (1−2e)). In other words, 2 (1−2e) is the information theoretic threshold for exact recovery at lowSNR. In addition, an efficient recovery algorithm based on semidefinite programming is proposed and shown to succeed in the threshold regime up to twice the optimal rate. Full version available in [1]. A new method is developed using the hidden Markov model (HMM) based technique. To handle nongesture patterns, we introduce the concept of a threshold model that calculates the likelihood threshold of an input pattern and provides a confirmation mechanism for the provisionally matched gesture patterns. The threshold model is a weak model for all trained gestures in the sense that its likelihood is smaller than that of the dedicated gesture model for a given gesture. Consequently, the likelihood can be used as an adaptive threshold for selecting proper gesture model. It has, however, a large number of states and needs to be reduced because the threshold model is constructed by collecting the states of all gesture models in the system. To overcome this problem, the states with similar probability distributions are merged, utilizing the relative entropy measure. Experimental results show that the proposed method can successfully extract trained gestures from continuous hand motion with 93.14 reliability. We consider the problem of identifying the source of failure in a network after receiving alarms or having observed symptoms. To locate the root cause accurately and timely in a large communication system is challenging because a single fault can often result in a large number of alarms, and multiple faults can occur concurrently. In this paper, we present a new fault localization method using a machine-learning approach. We propose to use logistic regression to study the correlation among network events based on end-to-end measurements. Then based on the regression model, we develop fault hypothesis that best explains the observed symptoms. Unlike previous work, the machine-learning algorithm requires neither the knowledge of dependencies among network events, nor the probabilities of faults, nor the conditional probabilities of fault propagation as input. The “low requirement” feature makes it suitable for large complex networks where accurate dependencies and prior probabilities are difficult to obtain. We then evaluate the performance of the learning algorithm with respect to the accuracy of fault hypothesis and the concentration property. Experimental results and theoretical analysis both show satisfactory performance. Many object detectors, such as AdaBoost, SVM and deformable part-based models (DPM), compute additive scoring functions at a large number of windows scanned over image pyramid, thus computational efficiency is an important consideration beside accuracy performance. In this paper, we present a framework of learning cost-sensitive decision policy which is a sequence of two-sided thresholds to execute early rejection or early acceptance based on the accumulative scores at each step. A decision policy is said to be optimal if it minimizes an empirical global risk function that sums over the loss of false negatives (FN) and false positives (FP), and the cost of computation. While the risk function is very complex due to high-order connections among the two-sided thresholds, we find its upper bound can be optimized by dynamic programming (DP) efficiently and thus say the learned policy is near-optimal. Given the loss of FN and FP and the cost in three numbers, our method can produce a policy on-the-fly for Adaboost, SVM and DPM. In experiments, we show that our decision policy outperforms state-of-the-art cascade methods significantly in terms of speed with similar accuracy performance. For achieving optimized spectrum usage, most existing opportunistic spectrum sensing and access protocols model the spectrum sensing and access problem as a partially observed Markov decision process by assuming that the information states and or the primary users' (PUs) traffic statistics are known a priori to the secondary users (SUs). While theoretically sound, the existing solutions may not be effective in practice due to two main concerns. First, the assumptions are not practical, as before the communication starts, PUs' traffic statistics may not be readily available to the SUs. Second and more serious, existing approaches are extremely vulnerable to malicious jamming attacks. By leveraging the same statistic information and stochastic dynamic decision-making process that the SUs would follow, a cognitive attacker with sensing capability can sense and jam the channels to be accessed by SUs, while not interfering PUs. To address these concerns, we formulate the antijamming, multichannel access problem as a nonstochastic multi-armed bandit problem. By leveraging probabilistically shared information between the sender and the receiver, our proposed protocol enables them to hop to the same set of channels with high probability while gaining resilience to jamming attacks without affecting PUs' activities. We analytically show the convergence of the learning algorithms and derive the performance bound based on regret . We further discuss the problem of tracking the best adaptive strategy and characterize the performance bound based on a new regret . Extensive simulation results show that the probabilistic spectrum sensing and access protocol can overcome the limitation of existing solutions and is highly resilient to various jamming attacks even with jammed acknowledgment (ACK) information. Dynamic and appropriate resource dimensioning isa crucial issue in cloud computing. As applications go more andmore 24 7, online policies must be sought to balance performancewith the cost of allocated virtual machines. Most industrialapproaches to date use ad hoc manual policies, such as thresholdbasedones. Providing good thresholds proved to be tricky andhard to automatize to fit every application requirement. Researchis being done to apply automatic decision-making approaches,such as reinforcement learning. Yet, they face a lot of problemsto go to the field: having good policies in the early phasesof learning, time for the learning to converge to an optimalpolicy and coping with changes in the application performancebehavior over time. In this paper, we propose to deal with theseproblems using appropriate initialization for the early stages aswell as convergence speedups applied throughout the learningphases and we present our first experimental results for these.We also introduce a performance model change detection onwhich we are currently working to complete the learning processmanagement. Even though some of these proposals were knownin the reinforcement learning field, the key contribution of thispaper is to integrate them in a real cloud controller and toprogram them as an automated workflow. As the failure frequency is increasing with the components count in modern and future supercomputers, resilience is becoming critical for extreme scale systems. The association of failure prediction with proactive checkpointing seeks to reduce the effect of failures in the execution time of parallel applications. Unfortunately, proactive checkpointing does not systematically avoid restarting from scratch. To mitigate this issue, failure prediction and proactive checkpointing can be coupled with periodic checkpointing. However, blind use of these techniques does not always improves system efficiency, because everyone of them comes with a mix of overheads and benefits. In order to study and understand the combination of these techniques and their improvement in the system's efficiency, we developed: (i) a prototype combining state of the art failure prediction, fast proactive checkpointing and preventive checkpointing; (ii) a mathematical model that reflects the expected computing efficiency of the combination and computes the optimal checkpointing interval in this context; (iii) a discrete event simulator to evaluate the computing efficiency of the combination for system parameters corresponding to the current and projected large scale HPC systems. We evaluate our proposed technique on a large supercomputer (i.e. TSUBAME2) with production-level HPC applications and we show that failure prediction, proactive and preventive checkpointing can be coupled successfully, imposing only about 2 to 6 of overhead in comparison with preventive checkpointing only. Moreover, our model-based simulations show that the optimal solution improves the computing efficiency up to 30 in comparison with classic periodic checkpointing. We show that the prediction recall has a much higher impact on execution efficiency than the prediction precision. This result suggests that researchers on failure prediction algorithms should focus on improving the recall. We also show that the combination of these techniques can significantly improve (by a factor 2, for a particular configuration) the mean time between failures (MTBF) perceived by the application. In this paper, we propose three criteria for efficient sample selection in case of data stream regression problems within an online active learning context. The selection becomes important whenever the target values, which guide the update of the regressors as well as the implicit model structures, are costly or time-consuming to measure and also in case when very fast models updates are required to cope with stream mining real-time demands. Reducing the selected samples as much as possible while keeping the predictive accuracy of the models on a high level is, thus, a central challenge. This should be ideally achieved in unsupervised and single-pass manner. Our selection criteria rely on three aspects: 1) the extrapolation degree combined with the model's nonlinearity degree , which is measured in terms of a new specific homogeneity criterion among adjacent local approximators; 2) the uncertainty in model outputs, which can be measured in terms of confidence intervals using so-called adaptive local error bars — we integrate a weighted localization of an incremental noise level estimator and propose formulas for online merging of local error bars; 3) the uncertainty in model parameters, which is estimated by the so-called A-optimality criterion, which relies on the Fisher information matrix. The selection criteria are developed in combination with evolving generalized Takagi–Sugeno (TS) fuzzy models (containing rules in arbitrarily rotated position), as it could be shown in previous publications that these outperform conventional evolving TS models (containing axis-parallel rules). The results based on three high-dimensional real-world streaming problems show that a model update based on only 10 –20 selected samples can still achieve similar accumulated model errors over time to the case when performing a full model update on all samples. This can be achieved with a negligible sensitivity on the size of the active learning latency buffer. Random sampling with the same percentages of samples selected, however, achieved much higher error rates. Hence, the intelligence in our sample selection concept leads to an economic balance between model accuracy and measurement as well computational costs for model updates. We show that the optimal decision policy for several types of Bayesian sequential detection problems has a threshold switching curve structure on the space of posterior distributions. This is established by using lattice programming and stochastic orders in a partially observed Markov decision process (POMDP) framework. A stochastic gradient algorithm is presented to estimate the optimal linear approximation to this threshold curve. We illustrate these results by first considering quickest time detection with phase-type distributed change time and a variance stopping penalty. Then it is proved that the threshold switching curve also arises in several other Bayesian decision problems such as quickest transient detection, exponential delay (risk-sensitive) penalties, stopping time problems in social learning, and multi-agent scheduling in a changing world. Using Blackwell dominance, it is shown that for dynamic decision making problems, the optimal decision policy is lower bounded by a myopic policy. Finally, it is shown how the achievable cost of the optimal decision policy varies with change time distribution by imposing a partial order on transition matrices. The increased complexity of performance-sensitive software systems leads to increased use of automated adaptation policies in lieu of manual performance tuning. Composition of adaptive components into larger adaptive systems, however, presents challenges that arise from potential incompatibilities among the respective adaptation policies. Consequently, unstable or poorly-tuned feedback loops may result that cause performance deterioration. This paper (i) presents a mechanism, called adaptation graph analysis, for identifying potential incompatibilities between composed adaptation policies and (ii) illustrates a general design methodology for co-adaptation that resolves such incompatibilities. Our results are demonstrated by a case study on energy minimization in multi-tier Web server farms subject to soft real-time constraints. Two independently efficient energy saving policies (an on off policy that switches machines off when not needed and a dynamic voltage scaling policy) are shown to conflict leading to increased energy consumption when combined. Our adaptation graph analysis predicts the problem, and our co-adaptation design methodology finds a solution that improves performance. Experimental results from a 17-server farm running the industry standard TPC-W e-commerce benchmark show that co-adaptation renders a cut-down in energy consumption by more than 50 , when workload is not high, while maintaining latency within acceptable bounds. The paper serves as a proof of concept of the proposed conflict-identification and resolution methodology and an invitation to further investigate a science for composing adaptive systems.