Suppose we have a virus or one competing idea product that propagates over a multiple profile (e.g., social) network. Can we predict what proportion of the network will actually get "infected" (e.g., spread the idea or buy the competing product), when the nodes of the network appear to have different sensitivity based on their profile? For example, if there are two profiles @math and @math in a network and the nodes of profile @math and profile @math are susceptible to a highly spreading virus with probabilities @math and @math respectively, what percentage of both profiles will actually get infected from the virus at the end? To reverse the question, what are the necessary conditions so that a predefined percentage of the network is infected? We assume that nodes of different profiles can infect one another and we prove that under realistic conditions, apart from the weak profile (great sensitivity), the stronger profile (low sensitivity) will get infected as well. First, we focus on cliques with the goal to provide exact theoretical results as well as to get some intuition as to how a virus affects such a multiple profile network. Then, we move to the theoretical analysis of arbitrary networks. We provide bounds on certain properties of the network based on the probabilities of infection of each node in it when it reaches the steady state. Finally, we provide extensive experimental results that verify our theoretical results and at the same time provide more insight on the problem.
Ecology, is another interesting application field for such propagation models. The principle of states that two species that compete for the exact same resources cannot stably coexist which resembles the aforementioned phenomenon of "winner takes all". This principle has been studied intensively using propagation models such as SIS, SIRS, Lotka-Volterra etc. but there has been no analytical solution presented so far @cite_2 , @cite_22 , @cite_21 .
@cite_21 @cite_22 @cite_2
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The ecological principle of competitive exclusion asserts that two species cannot indefinitely occupy the same niche [Sj. Attempts have been made to state this principle as a mathematical theorem. A standard example is due to Volterra [14]. (See Example 2.1 below.) He constructed a model of two species competing for a single resource and showed that one of the species must go extinct. Although the concept of niche is rather vague, it is generally agreed that Volterra’s model is an example of two species competing for the same niche and is therefore an illustration of the principle of competitive exclusion. The generalizations of Volterra’s model have dealt largely with the introduction of more realistic assumptions about the interactions between species. These assumptions have led to some interesting mathematical problems, many of them unsolved. The purpose of this paper is to state these problems precisely, to give proofs of the known results, and to indicate the unanswered questions. The basic object of study is an idealized ecological community consisting of a certain number of species living together in an isolated geographical area. We shall assume that the community interactions are independent of both space and time and that each species is distributed uniformly over the region. The basic variables are the population densities of each of the species. The For the study of information propagation, one fundamental problem is uncovering universal laws governing the dynamics of information propagation. This problem, from the microscopic perspective, is formulated as estimating the propagation probability that a piece of information propagates from one individual to another. Such a propagation probability generally depends on two major classes of factors: the intrinsic attractiveness of information and the interactions between individuals. Despite the fact that the temporal effect of attractiveness is widely studied, temporal laws underlying individual interactions remain unclear, causing inaccurate prediction of information propagation on evolving social networks. In this report, we empirically study the dynamics of information propagation, using the dataset from a population-scale social media website. We discover a temporal scaling in information propagation: the probability a message propagates between two individuals decays with the length of time latency since their latest interaction, obeying a power-law rule. Leveraging the scaling law, we further propose a temporal model to estimate future propagation probabilities between individuals, reducing the error rate of information propagation prediction from 6.7 to 2.6 and improving viral marketing with 9.7 incremental customers. Cyclic dominance of species has been identified as a potential mechanism to maintain biodiversity, see, e.g., B. Kerr, M. A. Riley, M. W. Feldman and B. J. M. Bohannan Nature 418, 171 (2002)] and B. Kirkup and M. A. Riley Nature 428, 412 (2004)]. Through analytical methods supported by numerical simulations, we address this issue by studying the properties of a paradigmatic non-spatial three-species stochastic system, namely, the "rock-paper-scissors" or cyclic Lotka-Volterra model. While the deterministic approach (rate equations) predicts the coexistence of the species resulting in regular (yet neutrally stable) oscillations of the population densities, we demonstrate that fluctuations arising in the system with a finite number of agents drastically alter this picture and are responsible for extinction: After long enough time, two of the three species die out. As main findings we provide analytic estimates and numerical computation of the extinction probability at a given time. We also discuss the implications of our results for a broad class of competing population systems. Rock is wrapped by paper, paper is cut by scissors and scissors are crushed by rock. This simple game is popular among children and adults to decide on trivial disputes that have no obvious winner, but cyclic dominance is also at the heart of predator–prey interactions, the mating strategy of side-blotched lizards, the overgrowth of marine sessile organisms and competition in microbial populations. Cyclical interactions also emerge spontaneously in evolutionary games entailing volunteering, reward, punishment, and in fact are common when the competing strategies are three or more, regardless of the particularities of the game. Here, we review recent advances on the rock–paper–scissors (RPS) and related evolutionary games, focusing, in particular, on pattern formation, the impact of mobility and the spontaneous emergence of cyclic dominance. We also review mean-field and zero-dimensional RPS models and the application of the complex Ginzburg–Landau equation, and we highlight the importance and usefulness of statistical physics for the successful study of large-scale ecological systems. Directions for future research, related, for example, to dynamical effects of coevolutionary rules and invasion reversals owing to multi-point interactions, are also outlined. Recent studies have emphasized the merits of search processes that lack overarching objectives, instead promoting divergence by rewarding behavioral novelty. While this less objective search paradigm is more open-ended and divergent, it still differs significantly from nature's mechanism of divergence. Rather than measuring novelty explicitly nature is guided by a single, fundamental constraint: survive long enough to reproduce. Surprisingly, this simple constraint produces both complexity and diversity in a continual process unparalleled by any algorithm to date. Inspired by the relative simplicity of open-endedness in nature in comparison to recent non-objective algorithms, this paper investigates the extent to which interactions between two coevolving populations, both subject to their own constraint, or minimal criterion, can produce results that are both functional and diverse even without any behavior characterization or novelty archive. To test this new approach, a novel maze navigation domain is introduced wherein evolved agents must learn to navigate mazes whose structures are simultaneously coevolving and increasing in complexity. The result is a broad range of maze topologies and successful agent trajectories in a single run, thereby suggesting the viability of minimal criterion coevolution as a new approach to non-objective search and a step towards genuinely open-ended algorithms. Suppose we have two competing ideas products viruses, that propagate over a social or other network. Suppose that they are strong virulent enough, so that each, if left alone, could lead to an epidemic. What will happen when both operate on the network? Earlier models assume that there is perfect competition: if a user buys product 'A' (or gets infected with virus 'X'), she will never buy product 'B' (or virus 'Y'). This is not always true: for example, a user could install and use both Firefox and Google Chrome as browsers. Similarly, one type of flu may give partial immunity against some other similar disease. In the case of full competition, it is known that 'winner takes all,' that is the weaker virus product will become extinct. In the case of no competition, both viruses survive, ignoring each other. What happens in-between these two extremes? We show that there is a phase transition: if the competition is harsher than a critical level, then 'winner takes all;' otherwise, the weaker virus survives. These are the contributions of this paper (a) the problem definition, which is novel even in epidemiology literature (b) the phase-transition result and (c) experiments on real data, illustrating the suitability of our results. Experimental determinations of Drosophila population dynamics cannot be explained by the Lotka-Volterra model of interspecific competition. This paper presents other possible mathematical models of competition between species, and gives the results of experiments designed to test the validity of such models. Eight of the ten new models presented contain the Lotka-Volterra model as a special case. The experiments made to test the models are of two kinds. Type 1 experiments are continuous one- or two-species populations, which permit the estimation of the carrying capacity of each species and the numbers of the two species at the point of stable equilibrium. Type 2 experiments measure the change in numbers over a short time interval in populations started with many different initial densities of the two species. Type 2 experiments give information on the dynamics of the two-species system in the phase plane whose coordinates are the number of individuals of each species. The models accounting best for the results are models five and seven (Table II). Each of these two models contains one parameter more than the Lotka-Volterra model. Model five adds a nonlinear term of self-interaction (−βiN2i). Model seven has the form, dNi dt = riN Kθii(Kθii − Nθi i − αijNj1−θi i). The exponential parameter θ removes the restriction of the logistic theory of population growth, that each individual added to the population decrease the rate of growth of the population by a constant amount. With model seven the rate of growth of a population of a single species need not have its maximum at K2, that is when the number of individuals is half the carrying capacity of the environment. Abstract Several competing human behavior models have been proposed to model boundedly rational adversaries in repeated Stackelberg Security Games (SSG). However, these existing models fail to address three main issues which are detrimental to defender performance. First, while they attempt to learn adversary behavior models from adversaries' past actions (“attacks on targets”), they fail to take into account adversaries' future adaptation based on successes or failures of these past actions. Second, existing algorithms fail to learn a reliable model of the adversary unless there exists sufficient data collected by exposing enough of the attack surface – a situation that often arises in initial rounds of the repeated SSG. Third, current leading models have failed to include probability weighting functions, even though it is well known that human beings' weighting of probability is typically nonlinear. To address these limitations of existing models, this article provides three main contributions. Our first contribution is a new human behavior model, SHARP, which mitigates these three limitations as follows: (i) SHARP reasons based on success or failure of the adversary's past actions on exposed portions of the attack surface to model adversary adaptivity; (ii) SHARP reasons about similarity between exposed and unexposed areas of the attack surface, and also incorporates a discounting parameter to mitigate adversary's lack of exposure to enough of the attack surface; and (iii) SHARP integrates a non-linear probability weighting function to capture the adversary's true weighting of probability. Our second contribution is a first “repeated measures study” – at least in the context of SSGs – of competing human behavior models. This study, where each experiment lasted a period of multiple weeks with individual sets of human subjects on the Amazon Mechanical Turk platform, illustrates the strengths and weaknesses of different models and shows the advantages of SHARP. Our third major contribution is to demonstrate SHARP's superiority by conducting real-world human subjects experiments at the Bukit Barisan Seletan National Park in Indonesia against wildlife security experts. Saliency propagation has been widely adopted for identifying the most attractive object in an image. The propagation sequence generated by existing saliency detection methods is governed by the spatial relationships of image regions, i.e., the saliency value is transmitted between two adjacent regions. However, for the inhomogeneous difficult adjacent regions, such a sequence may incur wrong propagations. In this paper, we attempt to manipulate the propagation sequence for optimizing the propagation quality. Intuitively, we postpone the propagations to difficult regions and meanwhile advance the propagations to less ambiguous simple regions. Inspired by the theoretical results in educational psychology, a novel propagation algorithm employing the teaching-to-learn and learning-to-teach strategies is proposed to explicitly improve the propagation quality. In the teaching-to-learn step, a teacher is designed to arrange the regions from simple to difficult and then assign the simplest regions to the learner. In the learning-to-teach step, the learner delivers its learning confidence to the teacher to assist the teacher to choose the subsequent simple regions. Due to the interactions between the teacher and learner, the uncertainty of original difficult regions is gradually reduced, yielding manifest salient objects with optimized background suppression. Extensive experimental results on benchmark saliency datasets demonstrate the superiority of the proposed algorithm over twelve representative saliency detectors. Population diversity is essential for the effective use of any crossover operator. We compare seven commonly used diversity mechanisms and prove rigorous run time bounds for the (μ+1) GA using uniform crossover on the fitness function Jumpk. All previous results in this context only hold for unrealistically low crossover probability pc=O(k n), while we give analyses for the setting of constant pc 2 and constant pc, we can compare the resulting expected optimisation times for different diversity mechanisms assuming an optimal choice of μ: O (nk-1) for duplicate elimination minimisation, O (n2 log n) for maximising the convex hull, O(n log n) for det. crowding (assuming pc = k n), O(n log n) for maximising the Hamming distance, O(n log n) for fitness sharing, O(n log n) for the single-receiver island model. This proves a sizeable advantage of all variants of the (μ+1) GA compared to the (1+1) EA, which requires θ(nk). In a short empirical study we confirm that the asymptotic differences can also be observed experimentally. Malecot's models of isolation by distance seem to assume random distribution in space, Poisson distribution of offspring number, and independent migration of individuals. These assumptions are inconsistent. By calculating the probability of joint occupancy of two locations at a distance x, it is shown that a haploid model embodying the latter two assumptions violates the first, forming larger and larger clumps of individuals separated by greater and greater distances. Thus the model is biologically irrelevant, even though it is possible to use it to calculate probabilities of genetic identity at different distances. The formation of these clumps is verified by computer simulation. The same phenomenon occurs in two- and three-dimensional models. In models of finite regions (a circle or a torus), the formation of clumps takes the form of the certainty of ultimate local extinction of the organism in each region. This does not occur if we hold the number of individuals on the circle or torus constant, but con... In a recent series of papers a surprisingly strong connection was discovered between standard evolutionary models of natural selection and Multiplicative Weights Updates Algorithm, a ubiquitous model of online learning and optimization. These papers establish that, under specific assumptions, mathematical models of biological evolution can be reduced to studying discrete replicator dynamics, a close variant of MWUA, in coordination games. This connection allows for introducing insights from game theoretic dynamics into the field of mathematical biology. Using these results as a stepping stone, we show that mathematical models of haploid evolution imply the extinction of genetic diversity in the long term limit, a widely believed conjecture in genetics. In game theoretic terms we show that in the case of coordination games, under minimal genericity assumptions, discrete replicator dynamics converge to pure Nash equilibria for all but a zero measure of initial conditions. This result holds despite the fact that mixed Nash equilibria can be exponentially (or even uncountably) many, completely dominating in number the set of pure Nash equilibria. Thus, in haploid organisms the long term preservation of genetic diversity needs to be safeguarded by other evolutionary mechanisms such as mutations and speciation. We introduce two mechanisms for interference mitigation, inspired by evolutionary game theory and machine learning to support the coexistence of a macrocell network underlaid with self-organized femtocell networks. In the first approach, stand-alone femtocells choose their strategies, observe the behavior of other players, and make the best decision based on their instantaneous payoff, as well as the average payoff of all other femtocells. We formulate the interactions among selfish femtocells using evolutionary games and demonstrate how the system converges to an equilibrium. In contrast, in the Reinforcement-Learning (RL) approach, information exchange among femtocells is no longer possible and hence each femtocell adapts its strategy and gradually learns by interacting with its environment (i.e., neighboring interferers) through trials-and-errors. Our investigations reveal that through learning, femtocells are able to self-organize by relying only on local information, while mitigating the interference towards the macrocell network. Besides, a trade-off exists where faster convergence is obtained in the evolutionary case as compared to the RL approach, at the expense of more side information. Finally, it is shown that femtocells face an interesting tradeoff of exploration versus exploitation in their learning processes. In this paper, the application of wireless information and power transfer to cooperative networks is investigated, where the relays in the network are randomly located and based on the decode-forward strategy. For the scenario with one source-destination pair, three different strategies for using the available relays are studied, and their impact on the outage probability and diversity gain is characterized by applying stochastic geometry. By using the assumptions that the path loss exponent is two and that the relay-destination distances are much larger than the source-relay distances, closed form analytical results can be developed to demonstrate that the use of energy harvesting relays can achieve the same diversity gain as the case with conventional self-powered relays. For the scenario with multiple sources, the relays can be viewed as a type of scarce resource, where the sources compete with each other to get help from the relays. Such a competition is modeled as a coalition formation game, and two distributed game theoretic algorithms are developed based on different payoff functions. Simulation results are provided to confirm the accuracy of the developed analytical results and facilitate a better performance comparison. Every form of behavior is shaped by trial and error. Such stepwise adaptation can occur through individual learning or through natural selection, the basis of evolution. Since the work of Maynard Smith and others, it has been realized how game theory can model this process. Evolutionary game theory replaces the static solutions of classical game theory by a dynamical approach centered not on the concept of rational players but on the population dynamics of behavioral programs. In this book the authors investigate the nonlinear dynamics of the self-regulation of social and economic behavior, and of the closely related interactions among species in ecological communities. Replicator equations describe how successful strategies spread and thereby create new conditions that can alter the basis of their success, i.e., to enable us to understand the strategic and genetic foundations of the endless chronicle of invasions and extinctions that punctuate evolution. In short, evolutionary game theory describes when to escalate a conflict, how to elicit cooperation, why to expect a balance of the sexes, and how to understand natural selection in mathematical terms. Comprehensive treatment of ecological and game theoretic dynamics Invasion dynamics and permanence as key concepts Explanation in terms of games of things like competition between species We introduce Equilibrium Propagation, a learning framework for energy-based models. It involves only one kind of neural computation, performed in both the first phase (when the prediction is made) and the second phase of training (after the target or prediction error is revealed). Although this algorithm computes the gradient of an objective function just like Backpropagation, it does not need a special computation or circuit for the second phase, where errors are implicitly propagated. Equilibrium Propagation shares similarities with Contrastive Hebbian Learning and Contrastive Divergence while solving the theoretical issues of both algorithms: our algorithm computes the gradient of a well defined objective function. Because the objective function is defined in terms of local perturbations, the second phase of Equilibrium Propagation corresponds to only nudging the prediction (fixed point, or stationary distribution) towards a configuration that reduces prediction error. In the case of a recurrent multi-layer supervised network, the output units are slightly nudged towards their target in the second phase, and the perturbation introduced at the output layer propagates backward in the hidden layers. We show that the signal 'back-propagated' during this second phase corresponds to the propagation of error derivatives and encodes the gradient of the objective function, when the synaptic update corresponds to a standard form of spike-timing dependent plasticity. This work makes it more plausible that a mechanism similar to Backpropagation could be implemented by brains, since leaky integrator neural computation performs both inference and error back-propagation in our model. The only local difference between the two phases is whether synaptic changes are allowed or not. We also show experimentally that multi-layer recurrently connected networks with 1, 2 and 3 hidden layers can be trained by Equilibrium Propagation on the permutation-invariant MNIST task. Modelling is becoming a necessity in studying biological signalling pathways, because the combinatorial complexity of such systems rapidly overwhelms intuitive and qualitative forms of reasoning. Yet, this same combinatorial explosion makes the traditional modelling paradigm based on systems of differential equations impractical. In contrast, agentbased or concurrent languages, such as ? [1,2,3] or the closely related BioNetGen language [4,5,6,7,8,9,10], describe biological interactions in terms of rules, thereby avoiding the combinatorial explosion besetting differential equations. Rules are expressed in an intuitive graphical form that transparently represents biological knowledge. In this way, rules become a natural unit of model building, modification, and discussion. We illustrate this with a sizeable example obtained from refactoring two models of EGF receptor signalling that are based on differential equations [11,12]. An exciting aspect of the agent-based approach is that it naturally lends itself to the identification and analysis of the causal structures that deeply shape the dynamical, and perhaps even evolutionary, characteristics of complex distributed biological systems. In particular, one can adapt the notions of causality and conflict, familiar from concurrency theory, to ?, our representation language of choice. Using the EGF receptor model as an example, we show how causality enables the formalization of the colloquial concept of pathway and, perhaps more surprisingly, how conflict can be used to dissect the signalling dynamics to obtain a qualitative handle on the range of system behaviours. By taming the combinatorial explosion, and exposing the causal structures and key kinetic junctures in a model, agent- and rule-based representations hold promise for making modelling more powerful, more perspicuous, and of appeal to a wider audience. We study competition between wireless devices with incomplete information about their opponents. We model such interactions as Bayesian interference games. Each wireless device selects a power profile over the entire available bandwidth to maximize its data rate. Such competitive models represent situations in which several wireless devices share spectrum without any central authority or coordinated protocol. In contrast to games where devices have complete information about their opponents, we consider scenarios where the devices are unaware of the interference they cause to other devices. Such games, which are modeled as Bayesian games, can exhibit significantly different equilibria. We first consider a simple scenario of simultaneous move games, where we show that the unique Bayes-Nash equilibrium is where both devices spread their power equally across the entire bandwidth. We then extend this model to a two-tiered spectrum sharing case where users act sequentially. Here one of the devices, called the primary user, is the owner of the spectrum and it selects its power profile first. The second device (called the secondary user) then responds by choosing a power profile to maximize its Shannon capacity. In such sequential move games, we show that there exist equilibria in which the primary user obtains a higher data rate by using only a part of the bandwidth. In a repeated Bayesian interference game, we show the existence of reputation effects: an informed primary user can bluff to prevent spectrum usage by a secondary user who suffers from lack of information about the channel gains. The resulting equilibrium can be highly inefficient, suggesting that competitive spectrum sharing is highly suboptimal. We consider a general heterogeneous network in which, besides general propagation effects (shadowing and or fading), individual base stations can have different emitting powers and be subject to different parameters of Hata-like path-loss models (path-loss exponent and constant) due to, for example, varying antenna heights. We assume also that the stations may have varying parameters of, for example, the link layer performance (SINR threshold, etc). By studying the propagation processes of signals received by the typical user from all antennas marked by the corresponding antenna parameters, we show that seemingly different heterogeneous networks based on Poisson point processes can be equivalent from the point of view a typical user. These neworks can be replaced with a model where all the previously varying propagation parameters (including path-loss exponents) are set to constants while the only trade-off being the introduction of an isotropic base station density. This allows one to perform analytic comparisons of different network models via their isotropic representations. In the case of a constant path-loss exponent, the isotropic representation simplifies to a homogeneous modification of the constant intensity of the original network, thus generalizing a previous result showing that the propagation processes only depend on one moment of the emitted power and propagation effects. We give examples and applications to motivate these results and highlight an interesting observation regarding random path-loss exponents. We introduce a new optimization framework to maximize the expected spread of cascades in networks. Our model allows a rich set of actions that directly manipulate cascade dynamics by adding nodes or edges to the network. Our motivating application is one in spatial conservation planning, where a cascade models the dispersal of wild animals through a fragmented landscape. We propose a mixed integer programming (MIP) formulation that combines elements from network design and stochastic optimization. Our approach results in solutions with stochastic optimality guarantees and points to conservation strategies that are fundamentally different from naive approaches.