We consider the problem of inferring the directed, causal graph from observational data, assuming no hidden confounders. We take an information theoretic approach, and make three main contributions. First, we show how through algorithmic information theory we can obtain SCI, a highly robust, effective and computationally efficient test for conditional independence---and show it outperforms the state of the art when applied in constraint-based inference methods such as stable PC. Second, building upon on SCI, we show how to tell apart the parents and children of a given node based on the algorithmic Markov condition. We give the Climb algorithm to efficiently discover the directed, causal Markov blanket---and show it is at least as accurate as inferring the global network, while being much more efficient. Last, but not least, we detail how we can use the Climb score to direct those edges that state of the art causal discovery algorithms based on PC or GES leave undirected---and show this improves their precision, recall and F1 scores by up to 20 .
To the best of our knowledge, there exists no algorithm that directly discovers the directed, causal Markov blanket, i.e. that can tell apart parents, children and spouses given only the Markov blanket of a target. In , we first discover the Markov blanket, and then orient the edges. To discover the blanket, we build upon and extend the state of the art @cite_17 and @cite_24 algorithms. Both follow the general structure of the GS algorithm, with employing fast symmetry correction to exclude children of children. Zhu and Yang @cite_13 proposed to speed up by pre-filtering based on mutual information, whereas @cite_14 discover Markov blankets based on conditional mutual information. Unlike our approach, these approaches require the user to set a cut-off value and a scaling parameter @math . For an in depth overview of related algorithms, we refer to the following articles @cite_15 @cite_25 .
@cite_14 @cite_24 @cite_15 @cite_13 @cite_25 @cite_17
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This paper presents a number of new algorithms for discovering the Markov Blanket of a target variable T from training data. The Markov Blanket can be used for variable selection for classification, for causal discovery, and for Bayesian Network learning. We introduce a low-order polynomial algorithm and several variants that soundly induce the Markov Blanket under certain broad conditions in datasets with thousands of variables and compare them to other state-of-the-art local and global methods with excellent results. In this paper we present a Bayesian framework for parsing images into their constituent visual patterns. The parsing algorithm optimizes the posterior probability and outputs a scene representation as a "parsing graph", in a spirit similar to parsing sentences in speech and natural language. The algorithm constructs the parsing graph and re-configures it dynamically using a set of moves, which are mostly reversible Markov chain jumps. This computational framework integrates two popular inference approaches--generative (top-down) methods and discriminative (bottom-up) methods. The former formulates the posterior probability in terms of generative models for images defined by likelihood functions and priors. The latter computes discriminative probabilities based on a sequence (cascade) of bottom-up tests filters. In our Markov chain algorithm design, the posterior probability, defined by the generative models, is the invariant (target) probability for the Markov chain, and the discriminative probabilities are used to construct proposal probabilities to drive the Markov chain. Intuitively, the bottom-up discriminative probabilities activate top-down generative models. In this paper, we focus on two types of visual patterns--generic visual patterns, such as texture and shading, and object patterns including human faces and text. These types of patterns compete and cooperate to explain the image and so image parsing unifies image segmentation, object detection, and recognition (if we use generic visual patterns only then image parsing will correspond to image segmentation (Tu and Zhu, 2002. IEEE Trans. PAMI, 24(5):657--673). We illustrate our algorithm on natural images of complex city scenes and show examples where image segmentation can be improved by allowing object specific knowledge to disambiguate low-level segmentation cues, and conversely where object detection can be improved by using generic visual patterns to explain away shadows and occlusions. We study a statistical model for the tensor principal component analysis problem introduced by Montanari and Richard: Given a order- @math tensor @math of the form @math , where @math is a signal-to-noise ratio, @math is a unit vector, and @math is a random noise tensor, the goal is to recover the planted vector @math . For the case that @math has iid standard Gaussian entries, we give an efficient algorithm to recover @math whenever @math , and certify that the recovered vector is close to a maximum likelihood estimator, all with high probability over the random choice of @math . The previous best algorithms with provable guarantees required @math . In the regime @math , natural tensor-unfolding-based spectral relaxations for the underlying optimization problem break down (in the sense that their integrality gap is large). To go beyond this barrier, we use convex relaxations based on the sum-of-squares method. Our recovery algorithm proceeds by rounding a degree- @math sum-of-squares relaxations of the maximum-likelihood-estimation problem for the statistical model. To complement our algorithmic results, we show that degree- @math sum-of-squares relaxations break down for @math , which demonstrates that improving our current guarantees (by more than logarithmic factors) would require new techniques or might even be intractable. Finally, we show how to exploit additional problem structure in order to solve our sum-of-squares relaxations, up to some approximation, very efficiently. Our fastest algorithm runs in nearly-linear time using shifted (matrix) power iteration and has similar guarantees as above. The analysis of this algorithm also confirms a variant of a conjecture of Montanari and Richard about singular vectors of tensor unfoldings. We consider the problem of learning to act in partially observable, continuous-state-and-action worlds where we have abstract prior knowledge about the structure of the optimal policy in the form of a distribution over policies. Using ideas from planning-as-inference reductions and Bayesian unsupervised learning, we cast Markov Chain Monte Carlo as a stochastic, hill-climbing policy search algorithm. Importantly, this algorithm's search bias is directly tied to the prior and its MCMC proposal kernels, which means we can draw on the full Bayesian toolbox to express the search bias, including nonparametric priors and structured, recursive processes like grammars over action sequences. Furthermore, we can reason about uncertainty in the search bias itself by constructing a hierarchical prior and reasoning about latent variables that determine the abstract structure of the policy. This yields an adaptive search algorithm--our algorithm learns to learn a structured policy efficiently. We show how inference over the latent variables in these policy priors enables intra- and intertask transfer of abstract knowledge. We demonstrate the flexibility of this approach by learning meta search biases, by constructing a nonparametric finite state controller to model memory, by discovering motor primitives using a simple grammar over primitive actions, and by combining all three. The adoption of everyday decisions in public affairs, fashion, movie-going, and consumer behavior is now thoroughly believed to migrate in a population through an influential network. The same diffusion process when being imitated by intention is called viral marketing. This process can be modeled by a (directed) graph G=(V,E) with a threshold t(v) for every vertex v?V, where v becomes active once at least t(v) of its (in-)neighbors are already active. A Perfect Target Set is a set of vertices whose activation will eventually activate the entire graph, and the Perfect Target Set Selection Problem (PTSS) asks for the minimum such initial set. It is known (Chen (2008) 6) that PTSS is hard to approximate, even for some special cases such as bounded-degree graphs, or majority thresholds.We propose a combinatorial model for this dynamic activation process, and use it to represent PTSS and its variants by linear integer programs. This allows one to use standard integer programming solvers for solving small-size PTSS instances. We also show combinatorial lower and upper bounds on the size of the minimum Perfect Target Set. Our upper bound implies that there are always Perfect Target Sets of size at most |V| 2 and 2|V| 3 under majority and strict majority thresholds, respectively, both in directed and undirected graphs. This improves the bounds of 0.727|V| and 0.7732|V| found recently by Chang and Lyuu (2010) 5 for majority and strict majority thresholds in directed graphs, and matches their bound under majority thresholds in undirected graphs. Furthermore, our proof is much simpler, and we observe that some of these bounds are tight. One interesting and perhaps surprising implication of our lower bound for undirected graphs, is that it is easy to get a constant factor approximation for PTSS for “relatively balanced” graphs (e.g., bounded-degree graphs, nearly regular graphs) with a “more than majority” threshold (that is, t(v)=??deg(v), for every v?V and some constant ?>1 2), whereas no polylogarithmic approximation exists for “more than majority” graphs. An analytic solution to the multi-target Bayes recursion known as the @math -Generalized Labeled Multi-Bernoulli ( @math -GLMB) filter has been recently proposed by Vo and Vo in [“Labeled Random Finite Sets and Multi-Object Conjugate Priors,” IEEE Trans. Signal Process., vol. 61, no. 13, pp. 3460–3475, 2014]. As a sequel to that paper, the present paper details efficient implementations of the @math -GLMB multi-target tracking filter. Each iteration of this filter involves an update operation and a prediction operation, both of which result in weighted sums of multi-target exponentials with intractably large number of terms. To truncate these sums, the ranked assignment and K-th shortest path algorithms are used in the update and prediction, respectively, to determine the most significant terms without exhaustively computing all of the terms. In addition, using tools derived from the same framework, such as probability hypothesis density filtering, we present inexpensive (relative to the @math -GLMB filter) look-ahead strategies to reduce the number of computations. Characterization of the @math -error in the multi-target density arising from the truncation is presented. Selective families, a weaker variant of superimposed codes [KS64, F92, 197, CR96], have been recently used to design Deterministic Distributed Broadcast (DDB) protocols for unknown radio networks (a radio network is said to be unknown when the nodes know nothing about the network but their own label) [CGGPR00, CGOR00]. We first provide a general almost tight lower bound on the size of selective families. Then, by reverting the selective families - DDB protocols connection, we exploit our lower bound to construct a family of “hard” radio networks (i.e. directed graphs). These networks yield an O(n log D) lower bound on the completion time of DDB protocols that is superlinear (in the size n of the network) even for very small maximum eccentricity D of the network, while all the previous lower bounds (e.g. O(D log n) [CGGPR00]) are superlinear only when D is almost linear. On the other hand, the previous upper bounds are all superlinear in n independently of the eccentricity D and the maximum in-degree d of the network. We introduce a broadcast technique that exploits selective families in a new way. Then, by combining selective families of almost optimal size with our new broadcast technique, we obtain an O(Dd log3 n) upper bound that we prove to be almost optimal when d = O(n D). This exponentially improves over the best known upper bound [CGR00) when D, d = O(polylogn). Furthermore, by comparing our deterministic upper bound with the best known randomized one [BGI87] we obtain a new, rather surprising insight into the real gap between deterministic and randomized protocols. It turns out that this gap is exponential (as discovered in [BGI87]), but only when the network has large maximum in-degree (i.e. d = O(na), for some constant a > O). We then look at the multibroadcast problem on unknown radio networks. A similar connection to that between selective families and (single) broadcast also holds between superimposed codes and multibroadcast. We in fact combine a variant of our (single) broadcast technique with superimposed codes of almost optimal size available in literature [EFF85, HS87, I97, CHI99]. This yields a multibroadcast protocol having completion time O(Dd2 log3 n). Finally, in order to determine the limits of our multibroadcast technique, we generalize (and improve) the best known lower bound [CR96] on the size of superimposed codes. For many random constraint satisfaction problems, by now there exist asymptotically tight estimates of the largest constraint density for which solutions exist. At the same time, for many of these problems, all known polynomial-time algorithms stop finding solutions at much smaller densities. For example, it is well-known that it is easy to color a random graph using twice as many colors as its chromatic number. Indeed, some of the simplest possible coloring algorithms achieve this goal. Given the simplicity of those algorithms, one would expect room for improvement. Yet, to date, no algorithm is known that uses (2 - epsiv)chi colors, in spite of efforts by numerous researchers over the years. In view of the remarkable resilience of this factor of 2 against every algorithm hurled at it, we find it natural to inquire into its origin. We do so by analyzing the evolution of the set of k-colorings of a random graph, viewed as a subset of 1,...,k n, as edges are added. We prove that the factor of 2 corresponds in a precise mathematical sense to a phase transition in the geometry of this set. Roughly speaking, we prove that the set of k-colorings looks like a giant ball for k ges 2chi, but like an error-correcting code for k les (2 - epsiv)chi. We also prove that an analogous phase transition occurs both in random k-SAT and in random hypergraph 2-coloring. And that for each of these three problems, the location of the transition corresponds to the point where all known polynomial-time algorithms fail. To prove our results we develop a general technique that allows us to establish rigorously much of the celebrated 1-step replica-symmetry-breaking hypothesis of statistical physics for random CSPs. Finding an efficient way to discover Markov blanket is one of the core issue s in data mining. This paper first discusses the problems existed in IAMB algorithm which is a typical algorithm for discovering the Markov b lanket of a target variable from the training dat a, and then proposes an improved algorithm λ -IAMB based on the improving approach which contains two aspects: code optimization and the improving strategy for conditional independence testing. E xperimental results show that λ -IAMB algorithm performs better than IAMB by finding Markov blanket of variables in typical Bayesian network and by testing the performance of them as feature selection method on some well-known real world datasets . There are several existing algorithms that under appropriate assumptions can reliably identify a subset of the underlying causal relationships from observational data. This paper introduces the first computationally feasible score-based algorithm that can reliably identify causal relationships in the large sample limit for discrete models, while allowing for the possibility that there are unobserved common causes. In doing so, the algorithm does not ever need to assign scores to causal structures with unobserved common causes. The algorithm is based on the identification of so called Y substructures within Bayesian network structures that can be learned from observational data. An example of a Y substructure is A -> C, B -> C, C -> D. After providing background on causal discovery, the paper proves the conditions under which the algorithm is reliable in the large sample limit. We propose a factor-graph-based approach to joint channel-estimation-and-decoding (JCED) of bit-interleaved coded orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (BICM-OFDM). In contrast to existing designs, ours is capable of exploiting not only sparsity in sampled channel taps but also clustering among the large taps, behaviors which are known to manifest at larger communication bandwidths. In order to exploit these channel-tap structures, we adopt a two-state Gaussian mixture prior in conjunction with a Markov model on the hidden state. For loopy belief propagation, we exploit a “generalized approximate message passing” (GAMP) algorithm recently developed in the context of compressed sensing, and show that it can be successfully coupled with soft-input soft-output decoding, as well as hidden Markov inference, through the standard sum-product framework. For N subcarriers and any channel length L<;N, the resulting JCED-GAMP scheme has a computational complexity of only O(N log2 N +N|S|), where |S| is the constellation size. Numerical experiments using IEEE 802.15.4a channels show that our scheme yields BER performance within 1 dB of the known-channel bound and 3-4 dB better than soft equalization based on LMMSE and LASSO. We present an algorithmic framework for learning local causal structure around target variables of interest in the form of direct causes effects and Markov blankets applicable to very large data sets with relatively small samples. The selected feature sets can be used for causal discovery and classification. The framework (Generalized Local Learning, or GLL) can be instantiated in numerous ways, giving rise to both existing state-of-the-art as well as novel algorithms. The resulting algorithms are sound under well-defined sufficient conditions. In a first set of experiments we evaluate several algorithms derived from this framework in terms of predictivity and feature set parsimony and compare to other local causal discovery methods and to state-of-the-art non-causal feature selection methods using real data. A second set of experimental evaluations compares the algorithms in terms of ability to induce local causal neighborhoods using simulated and resimulated data and examines the relation of predictivity with causal induction performance. Our experiments demonstrate, consistently with causal feature selection theory, that local causal feature selection methods (under broad assumptions encompassing appropriate family of distributions, types of classifiers, and loss functions) exhibit strong feature set parsimony, high predictivity and local causal interpretability. Although non-causal feature selection methods are often used in practice to shed light on causal relationships, we find that they cannot be interpreted causally even when they achieve excellent predictivity. Therefore we conclude that only local causal techniques should be used when insight into causal structure is sought. In a companion paper we examine in depth the behavior of GLL algorithms, provide extensions, and show how local techniques can be used for scalable and accurate global causal graph learning. We present a new efficient algorithm for the search version of the approximate Closest Vector Problem with Preprocessing (CVPP). Our algorithm achieves an approximation factor of O(n sqrt log n ), improving on the previous best of O(n^ 1.5 ) due to Lag arias, Lenstra, and Schnorr hkzbabai . We also show, somewhat surprisingly, that only O(n) vectors of preprocessing advice are sufficient to solve the problem (with the slightly worse approximation factor of O(n)). We remark that this still leaves a large gap with respect to the decisional version of CVPP, where the best known approximation factor is O(sqrt n log n ) due to Aharonov and Regev AharonovR04 . To achieve these results, we show a reduction to the same problem restricted to target points that are close to the lattice and a more efficient reduction to a harder problem, Bounded Distance Decoding with preprocessing (BDDP). Combining either reduction with the previous best-known algorithm for BDDP by Liu, Lyubashevsky, and Micciancio LiuLM06 gives our main result. In the setting of CVP without preprocessing, we also give a reduction from (1+eps)gamma approximate CVP to gamma approximate CVP where the target is at distance at most 1+1 eps times the minimum distance (the length of the shortest non-zero vector) which relies on the lattice sparsification techniques of Dadush and Kun DadushK13 . As our final and most technical contribution, we present a substantially more efficient variant of the LLM algorithm (both in terms of run-time and amount of preprocessing advice), and via an improved analysis, show that it can decode up to a distance proportional to the reciprocal of the smoothing parameter of the dual lattice MR04 . We show that this is never smaller than the LLM decoding radius, and that it can be up to an wide tilde Omega (sqrt n ) factor larger. We propose a graphical model for representing networks of stochastic processes, the minimal generative model graph. It is based on reduced factorizations of the joint distribution over time. We show that under appropriate conditions, it is unique and consistent with another type of graphical model, the directed information graph, which is based on a generalization of Granger causality. We demonstrate how directed information quantifies Granger causality in a particular sequential prediction setting. We also develop efficient methods to estimate the topological structure from data that obviate estimating the joint statistics. One algorithm assumes upper bounds on the degrees and uses the minimal dimension statistics necessary. In the event that the upper bounds are not valid, the resulting graph is nonetheless an optimal approximation in terms of Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence. Another algorithm uses near-minimal dimension statistics when no bounds are known, but the distribution satisfies a certain criterion. Analogous to how structure learning algorithms for undirected graphical models use mutual information estimates, these algorithms use directed information estimates. We characterize the sample-complexity of two plug-in directed information estimators and obtain confidence intervals. For the setting when point estimates are unreliable, we propose an algorithm that uses confidence intervals to identify the best approximation that is robust to estimation error. Last, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms through the analysis of both synthetic data and real data from the Twitter network. In the latter case, we identify which news sources influence users in the network by merely analyzing tweet times. We aim to apply sparse autoencoder-based unsupervised feature learning to emotional semantic analysis for textile images. To tackle the problem of limited training data, we present a cross-domain feature learning scheme for emotional textile image classification using convolutional autoencoders. We further propose a correlation-analysis-based feature selection method for the weights learned by sparse autoencoders to reduce the number of features extracted from large size images. First, we randomly collect image patches on an unlabeled image dataset in the source domain and learn local features with a sparse autoencoder. We then conduct feature selection according to the correlation between different weight vectors corresponding to the autoencoder’s hidden units. We finally adopt a convolutional neural network including a pooling layer to obtain global feature activations of textile images in the target domain and send these global feature vectors into logistic regression models for emotional image classification. The cross-domain unsupervised feature learning method achieves 65 to 78 average accuracy in the cross-validation experiments corresponding to eight emotional categories and performs better than conventional methods. Feature selection can reduce the computational cost of global feature extraction by about 50 while improving classification performance. We describe a novel unsupervised method for learning sparse, overcomplete features. The model uses a linear encoder, and a linear decoder preceded by a sparsifying non-linearity that turns a code vector into a quasi-binary sparse code vector. Given an input, the optimal code minimizes the distance between the output of the decoder and the input patch while being as similar as possible to the encoder output. Learning proceeds in a two-phase EM-like fashion: (1) compute the minimum-energy code vector, (2) adjust the parameters of the encoder and decoder so as to decrease the energy. The model produces "stroke detectors" when trained on handwritten numerals, and Gabor-like filters when trained on natural image patches. Inference and learning are very fast, requiring no preprocessing, and no expensive sampling. Using the proposed unsupervised method to initialize the first layer of a convolutional network, we achieved an error rate slightly lower than the best reported result on the MNIST dataset. Finally, an extension of the method is described to learn topographical filter maps. These lecture notes highlight the mathematical and computational structure relating to the formulation of, and development of algorithms for, the Bayesian approach to inverse problems in differential equations. This approach is fundamental in the quantification of uncertainty within applications in volving the blending of mathematical models with data. The finite dimensional situation is described first, along with some motivational examples. Then the development of probability measures on separable Banach space is undertaken, using a random series over an infinite set of functions to construct draws; these probability measures are used as priors in the Bayesian approach to inverse problems. Regularity of draws from the priors is studied in the natural Sobolev or Besov spaces implied by the choice of functions in the random series construction, and the Kolmogorov continuity theorem is used to extend regularity considerations to the space of Holder continuous functions. Bayes’ theorem is de rived in this prior setting, and here interpreted as finding conditions under which the posterior is absolutely continuous with respect to the prior, and determining a formula for the Radon-Nikodym derivative in terms of the likelihood of the data. Having established the form of the posterior, we then describe various properties common to it in the infinite dimensional setting. These properties include well-posedness, approximation theory, and the existence of maximum a posteriori estimators. We then describe measure-preserving dynamics, again on the infinite dimensional space, including Markov chain-Monte C arlo and sequential Monte Carlo methods, and measure-preserving reversible stochastic differential equations. By formulating the theory and algorithms on the underlying infinite dimensional space, we obtain a framework suitable for rigorous analysis of the accuracy of reconstructions, of computational complexity, as well as naturally constructing algorithms which perform well under mesh refinement, since they are inherently well-defined in infinite dimensions. In this paper, we present a novel method to explore semantically meaningful visual information and identify the discriminative spatiotemporal relationships between them for real-time activity recognition. Our approach infers human activities using continuous egocentric (first-person-view) videos of object manipulations in an industrial setup. In order to achieve this goal, we propose a random forest that unifies randomization, discriminative relationships mining and a Markov temporal structure. Discriminative relationships mining helps us to model relations that distinguish different activities, while randomization allows us to handle the large feature space and prevents over-fitting. The Markov temporal structure provides temporally consistent decisions during testing. The proposed random forest uses a discriminative Markov decision tree, where every nonterminal node is a discriminative classifier and the Markov structure is applied at leaf nodes. The proposed approach outperforms the state-of-the-art methods on a new challenging video dataset of assembling a pump system. Until recently, the lack of ground truth data has hindered the application of discriminative structured prediction techniques to the stereo problem. In this paper we use ground truth data sets that we have recently constructed to explore different model structures and parameter learning techniques. To estimate parameters in Markov random fields (MRFs) via maximum likelihood one usually needs to perform approximate probabilistic inference. Conditional random fields (CRFs) are discriminative versions of traditional MRFs. We explore a number of novel CRF model structures including a CRF for stereo matching with an explicit occlusion model. CRFs require expensive inference steps for each iteration of optimization and inference is particularly slow when there are many discrete states. We explore belief propagation, variational message passing and graph cuts as inference methods during learning and compare with learning via pseudolikelihood. To accelerate approximate inference we have developed a new method called sparse variational message passing which can reduce inference time by an order of magnitude with negligible loss in quality. Learning using sparse variational message passing improves upon previous approaches using graph cuts and allows efficient learning over large data sets when energy functions violate the constraints imposed by graph cuts. We address the problem of learning structured unsupervised models with moment sparsity typical in many natural language induction tasks. For example, in unsupervised part-of-speech (POS) induction using hidden Markov models, we introduce a bias for words to be labeled by a small number of tags. In order to express this bias of posterior sparsity as opposed to parametric sparsity, we extend the posterior regularization framework [7]. We evaluate our methods on three languages — English, Bulgarian and Portuguese — showing consistent and significant accuracy improvement over EM-trained HMMs, and HMMs with sparsity-inducing Dirichlet priors trained by variational EM. We increase accuracy with respect to EM by 2.3 -6.5 in a purely unsupervised setting as well as in a weakly-supervised setting where the closed-class words are provided. Finally, we show improvements using our method when using the induced clusters as features of a discriminative model in a semi-supervised setting.