Migrants' assimilation is a major challenge for European societies, in part because of the sudden surge of refugees in recent years and in part because of long-term demographic trends. In this paper, we use Facebook's data for advertisers to study the levels of assimilation of Arabic-speaking migrants in Germany, as seen through the interests they express online. Our results indicate a gradient of assimilation along demographic lines, language spoken and country of origin. Given the difficulty to collect timely migration data, in particular for traits related to cultural assimilation, the methods that we develop and the results that we provide open new lines of research that computational social scientists are well-positioned to address.
New information, like Web and social media data, are a main source of innovation in the context of migration studies. Research in this area has focused on using online data to improve estimates of migration flows and stocks. After Zagheni and Weber used geo-located Yahoo! e-mail data to estimate international migration flows @cite_12 , several platforms have been used to understand the network structure of migration, including Facebook @cite_3 and Google+ @cite_1 . Geo-located Twitter data has proved useful for studying the relationship between internal and international migration @cite_2 , as well as short-term mobility versus long-term migration @cite_9 @cite_4 . LinkedIn data has provided insights into global patterns of migration for professionals @cite_10 .
@cite_4 @cite_9 @cite_1 @cite_3 @cite_2 @cite_10 @cite_12
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Data about migration flows are largely inconsistent across countries, typically outdated, and often inexistent. Despite the importance of migration as a driver of demographic change, there is limited availability of migration statistics. Generally, researchers rely on census data to indirectly estimate flows. However, little can be inferred for specific years between censuses and for recent trends. The increasing availability of geolocated data from online sources has opened up new opportunities to track recent trends in migration patterns and to improve our understanding of the relationships between internal and international migration. In this paper, we use geolocated data for about 500,000 users of the social network website "Twitter". The data are for users in OECD countries during the period May 2011- April 2013. We evaluated, for the subsample of users who have posted geolocated tweets regularly, the geographic movements within and between countries for independent periods of four months, respectively. Since Twitter users are not representative of the OECD population, we cannot infer migration rates at a single point in time. However, we proposed a difference-in-differences approach to reduce selection bias when we infer trends in out-migration rates for single countries. Our results indicate that our approach is relevant to address two longstanding questions in the migration literature. First, our methods can be used to predict turning points in migration trends, which are particularly relevant for migration forecasting. Second, geolocated Twitter data can substantially improve our understanding of the relationships between internal and international migration. Our analysis relies uniquely on publicly available data that could be potentially available in real time and that could be used to monitor migration trends. The Web Science community is well-positioned to address, in future work, a number of methodological and substantive questions that we discuss in this article. Recently, there have been considerable efforts to use online data to investigate international migration. These efforts show that Web data are valuable for estimating migration rates and are relatively easy to obtain. However, existing studies have only investigated flows of people along migration corridors, i.e. between pairs of countries. In our work, we use data about "places lived" from millions of Google+ users in order to study migration "clusters", i.e. groups of countries in which individuals have lived. For the first time, we consider information about more than two countries people have lived in. We argue that these data are very valuable because this type of information is not available in traditional demographic sources which record country-to-country migration flows independent of each other. We show that migration clusters of country triads cannot be identified using information about bilateral flows alone. To demonstrate the additional insights that can be gained by using data about migration clusters, we first develop a model that tries to predict the prevalence of a given triad using only data about its constituent pairs. We then inspect the groups of three countries which are more or less prominent, compared to what we would expect based on bilateral flows alone. Next, we identify a set of features such as a shared language or colonial ties that explain which triple of country pairs are more or less likely to be clustered when looking at country triples. Then we select and contrast a few cases of clusters that provide some qualitative information about what our data set shows. The type of data that we use is potentially available for a number of social media services. We hope that this first study about migration clusters will stimulate the use of Web data for the development of new theories of international migration that could not be tested appropriately before. Pervasive presence of location-sharing services made it possible for researchers to gain an unprecedented access to the direct records of human activity in space and time. This article analyses geo-located Twitter messages in order to uncover global patterns of human mobility. Based on a dataset of almost a billion tweets recorded in 2012, we estimate the volume of international travelers by country of residence. Mobility profiles of different nations were examined based on such characteristics as mobility rate, radius of gyration, diversity of destinations, and inflow–outflow balance. Temporal patterns disclose the universally valid seasons of increased international mobility and the particular character of international travels of different nations. Our analysis of the community structure of the Twitter mobility network reveals spatially cohesive regions that follow the regional division of the world. We validate our result using global tourism statistics and mobility models provided by other authors and argue that Twitter is exceptionally useful for understanding and quantifying global mobility patterns. Migration estimates are sensitive to definitions of time interval and duration. For example, when does a tourist become a migrant? As a result, harmonizing across different kinds of estimates or data sources can be difficult. Moreover in countries like the United States, that do not have a national registry system, estimates of internal migration typically rely on survey data that can require over a year from data collection to publication. In addition, each survey can ask only a limited set questions about migration (e.g., where did you live a year ago? where did you live five years ago?). We leverage a sample of geo-referenced Twitter tweets for about 62,000 users, spanning the period between 2010 and 2016, to estimate a series of US internal migration flows under varying time intervals and durations. Our findings, expressed in terms of 'migration curves', document, for the first time, the relationships between short-term mobility and long-term migration. The results open new avenues for demographic research. More specifically, future directions include the use of migration curves to produce probabilistic estimates of long-term migration from short-term (and vice versa) and to nowcast mobility rates at different levels of spatial and temporal granularity using a combination of previously published American Community Survey data and up-to-date data from a panel of Twitter users. International migration is one of the major determinants of demographic change. Although efforts to produce comparable statistics are underway, estimates of demographic flows are inexistent, outdated, or largely inconsistent, for most countries. We estimate age and gender-specific migration rates using data extracted from a large sample of Yahoo! e-mail messages. Self-reported age and gender of anonymized e-mail users were linked to the geographic locations (mapped from IP addresses) from where users sent e-mail messages over time (2009-2011). The users' country of residence over time was inferred as the one from where most e-mail messages were sent. Our estimates of age profiles of migration are qualitatively consistent with existing administrative data sources. Selection bias generates uncertainty for estimates at one point in time, especially for developing countries. However, our approach allows us to compare in a reliable way migration trends of females and males. We document the recent increase in human mobility and we observe that female mobility has been increasing at a faster pace. Our findings suggest that e-mail data may complement existing migration data, resolve inconsistencies arising from different definitions of migration, and provide new and rich information on mobility patterns and social networks of migrants. The use of digital records for demographic research has the potential to become particularly important for developing countries, where the diffusion of Internet will be faster than the development of mature demographic registration systems. Capturing human movement patterns across political borders is difficult and this difficulty highlights the need to investigate alternative data streams. With the advent of smart phones and the ability to attach accurate coordinates to Twitter messages, users leave a geographic digital footprint of their movement when posting tweets. In this study we analyzed 10 months of geo-located tweets for Kenya and were able to capture movement of people at different temporal (daily to periodic) and spatial (local, national to international) scales. We were also able to capture both long and short distances travelled, highlighting regional connections and cross-border movement between Kenya and the surrounding countries. The findings from this study has broad implications for studying movement patterns and mapping inter intra-region movement dynamics. The incredible growth of the social web over the last decade has ushered in a flurry of new social media sites. On one hand, users have an inordinate number of choices; on the other hand, users are constrained by limited time and resources and have to choose sites in order to remain social and active. Hence, dynamic social media entails user migration, a well studied phenomenon in fields such as sociology and psychology. Users are valuable assets for social media sites as they help contribute to the growth of a site and generate revenue by increased traffic. We are intrigued to know if social media user migration can be studied, and what migration patterns are. In particular, we investigate whether people migrate, and if they do, how they migrate. We formalize site and attention migration to help identify the migration between popular social media sites and determine clear patterns of migration between sites. This work suggests a feasible way to study migration patterns in social media. The discovered patterns can help understand social media sites and gauge their popularity to improve business intelligence and revenue generation through the retention of users. Nowadays, human movement in urban spaces can be traced digitally in many cases. It can be observed that movement patterns are not constant, but vary across time and space. In this work, we characterize such spatio-temporal patterns with an innovative combination of two separate approaches that have been utilized for studying human mobility in the past. First, by using non-negative tensor factorization (NTF), we are able to cluster human behavior based on spatio-temporal dimensions. Second, for characterizing these clusters, we propose to use HypTrails, a Bayesian approach for expressing and comparing hypotheses about human trails. To formalize hypotheses, we utilize publicly available Web data (i.e., Foursquare and census data). By studying taxi data in Manhattan, we can discover and characterize human mobility patterns that cannot be identified in a collective analysis. As one example, we find a group of taxi rides that end at locations with a high number of party venues on weekend nights. Our findings argue for a more fine-grained analysis of human mobility in order to make informed decisions for e.g., enhancing urban structures, tailored traffic control and location-based recommender systems. Geolocated social media data provides a powerful source of information about place and regional human behavior. Because little social media data is geolocation-annotated, inference techniques serve an essential role for increasing the volume of annotated data. One major class of inference approaches has relied on the social network of Twitter, where the locations of a user's friends serve as evidence for that user's location. While many such inference techniques have been recently proposed, we actually know little about their relative performance, with the amount of ground truth data varying between 5 and 100 of the network, the size of the social network varying by four orders of magnitude, and little standardization in evaluation metrics. We conduct a systematic comparative analysis of nine state-of-the-art network-based methods for performing geolocation inference at the global scale, controlling for the source of ground truth data, dataset size, and temporal recency in test data. Furthermore, we identify a comprehensive set of evaluation metrics that clarify performance differences. Our analysis identifies a large performance disparity between that reported in the literature and that seen in real-world conditions. To aid reproducibility and future comparison, all implementations have been released in an open source geoinference package. We investigate trends in the international migration of professional workers by analyzing a dataset of millions of geolocated career histories provided by LinkedIn, the largest online platform for professionals. The new dataset confirms that the United States is, in absolute terms, the top destination for international migrants. However, we observe a decrease, from 2000 to 2012, in the percentage of professional migrants, worldwide, who have the United States as their country of destination. The pattern holds for persons with Bachelor’s, Master’s, and PhD degrees alike, and for individuals with degrees from highly-ranked worldwide universities. Our analysis also reveals the growth of Asia as a major professional migration destination during the past twelve years. Although we see a decline in the share of employment-based migrants going to the United States, our results show a recent rebound in the percentage of international students who choose the United States as their destination. The popularity of social media websites like Flickr and Twitter has created enormous collections of user-generated content online. Latent in these content collections are observations of the world: each photo is a visual snapshot of what the world looked like at a particular point in time and space, for example, while each tweet is a textual expression of the state of a person and his or her environment. Aggregating these observations across millions of social sharing users could lead to new techniques for large-scale monitoring of the state of the world and how it is changing over time. In this paper we step towards that goal, showing that by analyzing the tags and image features of geo-tagged, time-stamped photos we can measure and quantify the occurrence of ecological phenomena including ground snow cover, snow fall and vegetation density. We compare several techniques for dealing with the large degree of noise in the dataset, and show how machine learning can be used to reduce errors caused by misleading tags and ambiguous visual content. We evaluate the accuracy of these techniques by comparing to ground truth data collected both by surface stations and by Earth-observing satellites. Besides the immediate application to ecology, our study gives insight into how to accurately crowd-source other types of information from large, noisy social sharing datasets. The website wheresgeorge.com invites its users to enter the serial numbers of their US dollar bills and track them across America and beyond. Why? “For fun and because it had not been done yet”, they say. But the dataset accumulated since December 1998 has provided the ideal raw material to test the mathematical laws underlying human travel, and that has important implications for the epidemiology of infectious diseases. Analysis of the trajectories of over half a million dollar bills shows that human dispersal is described by a ‘two-parameter continuous-time random walk’ model: our travel habits conform to a type of random proliferation known as ‘superdiffusion’. And with that much established, it should soon be possible to develop a new class of models to account for the spread of human disease. The dynamic spatial redistribution of individuals is a key driving force of various spatiotemporal phenomena on geographical scales. It can synchronize populations of interacting species, stabilize them, and diversify gene pools1,2,3. Human travel, for example, is responsible for the geographical spread of human infectious disease4,5,6,7,8,9. In the light of increasing international trade, intensified human mobility and the imminent threat of an influenza A epidemic10, the knowledge of dynamical and statistical properties of human travel is of fundamental importance. Despite its crucial role, a quantitative assessment of these properties on geographical scales remains elusive, and the assumption that humans disperse diffusively still prevails in models. Here we report on a solid and quantitative assessment of human travelling statistics by analysing the circulation of bank notes in the United States. Using a comprehensive data set of over a million individual displacements, we find that dispersal is anomalous in two ways. First, the distribution of travelling distances decays as a power law, indicating that trajectories of bank notes are reminiscent of scale-free random walks known as Levy flights. Second, the probability of remaining in a small, spatially confined region for a time T is dominated by algebraically long tails that attenuate the superdiffusive spread. We show that human travelling behaviour can be described mathematically on many spatiotemporal scales by a two-parameter continuous-time random walk model to a surprising accuracy, and conclude that human travel on geographical scales is an ambivalent and effectively superdiffusive process. Human-generated textual data streams from services such as Twitter increasingly become geo-referenced. The spatial resolution of their coverage improves quickly, making them a promising instrument for sensing various aspects of evolution and dynamics of social systems. This work explores spacetime structures of the topical content of short textual messages in a stream available from Twitter in Ireland. It uses a streaming Latent Dirichlet Allocation topic model trained with an incremental variational Bayes method. The posterior probabilities of the discovered topics are post-processed with a spatial kernel density and subjected to comparative analysis. The identified prevailing topics are often found to be spatially contiguous. We apply Markov-modulated non-homogeneous Poisson processes to quantify a proportion of novelty in the observed abnormal patterns. A combined use of these techniques allows for real-time analysis of the temporal evolution and spatial variability of population's response to various stimuli such as large scale sportive, political or cultural events. Moving to a new country can be difficult, but relationships made there can ease the integration into the new environment. The social ties can be formed with different groups: compatriots from their home country, people originally from their new country (locals), and also immigrants from other countries. Yet very little research on immigration has addressed this important aspect, primarily because large-scale studies of social networks are impractical using traditional methods such as surveys. In this study we provide the first comprehensive view into the composition of immigrants' social networks in the United States using data from the social networking site Facebook. We measure the integration of immigrant populations through the structure of friendship ties, and contrast it with the spatial density of immigrant communities. Beyond friendships with compatriots and locals, we look at friendships between immigrant groups, deriving a map of cultural friendship affinities. Abstract The availability of new data sources on human mobility is opening new avenues for investigating the interplay of social networks, human mobility and dynamical processes such as epidemic spreading. Here we analyze data on the time-resolved face-to-face proximity of individuals in large-scale real-world scenarios. We compare two settings with very different properties, a scientific conference and a long-running museum exhibition. We track the behavioral networks of face-to-face proximity, and characterize them from both a static and a dynamic point of view, exposing differences and similarities. We use our data to investigate the dynamics of a susceptible–infected model for epidemic spreading that unfolds on the dynamical networks of human proximity. The spreading patterns are markedly different for the conference and the museum case, and they are strongly impacted by the causal structure of the network data. A deeper study of the spreading paths shows that the mere knowledge of static aggregated networks would lead to erroneous conclusions about the transmission paths on the dynamical networks. The wide availability of user-provided content in online social media facilitates the aggregation of people around common interests, worldviews, and narratives. However, the World Wide Web (WWW) also allows for the rapid dissemination of unsubstantiated rumors and conspiracy theories that often elicit rapid, large, but naive social responses such as the recent case of Jade Helm 15––where a simple military exercise turned out to be perceived as the beginning of a new civil war in the United States. In this work, we address the determinants governing misinformation spreading through a thorough quantitative analysis. In particular, we focus on how Facebook users consume information related to two distinct narratives: scientific and conspiracy news. We find that, although consumers of scientific and conspiracy stories present similar consumption patterns with respect to content, cascade dynamics differ. Selective exposure to content is the primary driver of content diffusion and generates the formation of homogeneous clusters, i.e., “echo chambers.” Indeed, homogeneity appears to be the primary driver for the diffusion of contents and each echo chamber has its own cascade dynamics. Finally, we introduce a data-driven percolation model mimicking rumor spreading and we show that homogeneity and polarization are the main determinants for predicting cascades’ size. Platforms such as Twitter have provided researchers with ample opportunities to analytically study social phenomena. There are however, significant computational challenges due to the enormous rate of production of new information: researchers are therefore, often forced to analyze a judiciously selected “sample” of the data. Like other social media phenomena, information diffusion is a social process–it is affected by user context, and topic, in addition to the graph topology. This paper studies the impact of different attribute and topology based sampling strategies on the discovery of an important social media phenomena–information diffusion. We examine several widely-adopted sampling methods that select nodes based on attribute (random, location, and activity) and topology (forest fire) as well as study the impact of attribute based seed selection on topology based sampling. Then we develop a series of metrics for evaluating the quality of the sample, based on user activity (e.g. volume, number of seeds), topological (e.g. reach, spread) and temporal characteristics (e.g. rate). We additionally correlate the diffusion volume metric with two external variables–search and news trends. Our experiments reveal that for small sample sizes (30 ), a sample that incorporates both topology and user context (e.g. location, activity) can improve on naive methods by a significant margin of 15-20 . Nowadays, an ever-growing amount of information is being transferred through web-based social media. In particular, Twitter emerged to be an important social medium providing most up-to-date information and comments on current events and topics of any kind. This led to a continuous growth of the interest of various security-related organizations in tools for real-time monitoring of Twitter streams to collect information there from. In this paper we present some initial explorations on how to exploit Twitter for border security-related intelligence gathering. To be more precise, we present techniques for: (a) retrieving and analyzing tweets posted in third countries, in which opinions and information are provided on migration to Europe or related issues (here we experimented with sentiment analysis for improving the retrieval performance), and (b) enhancing the information extracted from online news on border security-related events in third countries with information extracted from Twitter. Characterizing information diffusion on social platforms like Twitter enables us to understand the properties of underlying media and model communication patterns. As Twitter gains in popularity, it has also become a venue to broadcast rumors and misinformation. We use epidemiological models to characterize information cascades in twitter resulting from both news and rumors. Specifically, we use the SEIZ enhanced epidemic model that explicitly recognizes skeptics to characterize eight events across the world and spanning a range of event types. We demonstrate that our approach is accurate at capturing diffusion in these events. Our approach can be fruitfully combined with other strategies that use content modeling and graph theoretic features to detect (and possibly disrupt) rumors. The rise in the use of social networks in the recent years has resulted in an abundance of information on different aspects of everyday social activities that is available online, with the most prominent and timely source of such information being Twitter. This has resulted in a proliferation of tools and applications that can help end-users and large-scale event organizers to better plan and manage their activities. In this process of analysis of the information originating from social networks, an important aspect is that of the geographic coordinates, i.e., geolocalisation, of the relevant information, which is necessary for several applications (e.g., on trending venues, traffic jams, etc.). Unfortunately, only a very small percentage of the twitter posts are geotagged, which significantly restricts the applicability and utility of such applications. In this work, we address this problem by proposing a framework for geolocating tweets that are not geotagged. Our solution is general, and estimates the location from which a post was generated by exploiting the similarities in the content between this post and a set of geotagged tweets, as well as their time-evolution characteristics. Contrary to previous approaches, our framework aims at providing accurate geolocation estimates at fine grain (i.e., within a city). The experimental evaluation with real data demonstrates the efficiency and effectiveness of our approach.