This paper develops a path planner that minimizes risk (e.g. motion execution) while maximizing accumulated reward (e.g., quality of sensor viewpoint) motivated by visual assistance or tracking scenarios in unstructured or confined environments. In these scenarios, the robot should maintain the best viewpoint as it moves to the goal. However, in unstructured or confined environments, some paths may increase the risk of collision; therefore there is a tradeoff between risk and reward. Conventional state-dependent risk or probabilistic uncertainty modeling do not consider path-level risk or is difficult to acquire. This risk-reward planner explicitly represents risk as a function of motion plans, i.e., paths. Without manual assignment of the negative impact to the planner caused by risk, this planner takes in a pre-established viewpoint quality map and plans target location and path leading to it simultaneously, in order to maximize overall reward along the entire path while minimizing risk. Exact and approximate algorithms are presented, whose solution is further demonstrated on a physical tethered aerial vehicle. Other than the visual assistance problem, the proposed framework also provides a new planning paradigm to address minimum-risk planning under dynamical risk and absence of substructure optimality and to balance the trade-off between reward and risk.
All existing methods require an artificial assignment of the adverse impact caused by risk, in the form of negative reward (penalty), unit cost, or bound on probability. Such assignment is not clear and a desired value may not even exist @cite_11 . It is subjective to human bias and hard to determine, e.g., how to define the value of better situational awareness compared to the cost of losing the robot. This paper avoids the necessity of such artificial assignment, e.g., manually arbitrating the value of either maximum acceptable risk or minimum expected reward. A utility function of the ratio between reward and risk along the entire path is proposed, as a measurement of how much risk is taken to achieve one unit of reward. In addition, the desirable goal state is not specified to the planner beforehand, but discovered by the planner based on optimal utility during the planning process.
@cite_11
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This thesis investigates risk-sensitive sequential decision-making problems in an uncertain environment. We rst introduce the axiomatic concept of valuation functions that generalize known concepts of risk measures in mathematical nance to cover most of the existing risk related models in various elds, in particular, behavioral economics and cognitive neuroscience. By applying this concept to Markov processes, we construct valuation maps and develop thereby a uni ed framework for incorporating risk into Markov decision processes on general spaces. Within the framework, we study mainly two types of in nite-horizon risk-sensitive criteria, discounted and average valuations, and solve the associated optimization problems by value iteration. For the discounted case, we propose a new discount scheme, which is di erent from the conventional form but consistent with existing literature, while for the average criterion, we state Lyapunov-type stability conditions that generalize known conditions for Markov chains to ensure the existence of solutions to the optimality equation and a geometric convergence rate for the value iteration. Applying a set of valuation functions, called utility-based shortfall, we derive a family of model-free risk-sensitive reinforcement learning algorithms for solving the optimization problems corresponding to risk-sensitive valuations. In addition, we nd that when appropriate utility functions are chosen, agents’ behaviors express key features of human behavior as predicted by prospect theory, for example, di erent risk preferences for gains and losses, as well as the shape of subjective probability curves. As a proof of principle for the applicability of the new algorithms, we apply them to two tasks, 1) to quantify human behavior in a sequential investment task and 2) to perform risk control in simulated algorithmic trading of stocks. In the rst task, the risk-sensitive variant provides a signi cantly better t to the behavioral data and it leads to an interpretation of the subject’s responses which is indeed consistent with prospect theory. The analysis of simultaneously measured fMRI signals show a signi cant correlation of the risk-sensitive temporal di erence error with BOLD signal change in the ventral striatum. In the second task, our algorithm outperforms the risk-neutral reinforcement learning algorithm by keeping the trading cost at a substantially low level at the spot when the 2010 Flash Crash happened, and signi cantly reducing the risk over the whole test period. When controlling dynamic systems, such as mobile robots in uncertain environments, there is a trade off between risk and reward. For example, a race car can turn a corner faster by taking a more challenging path. This paper proposes a new approach to planning a control sequence with a guaranteed risk bound. Given a stochastic dynamic model, the problem is to find a control sequence that optimizes a performance metric, while satisfying chance constraints i.e. constraints on the upper bound of the probability of failure. We propose a two-stage optimization approach, with the upper stage optimizing the risk allocation and the lower stage calculating the optimal control sequence that maximizes reward. In general, the upper-stage is a non-convex optimization problem, which is hard to solve. We develop a new iterative algorithm for this stage that efficiently computes the risk allocation with a small penalty to optimality. The algorithm is implemented and tested on the autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) depth planning problem, and demonstrates a substantial improvement in computation cost and suboptimality, compared to the prior arts. In this paper, we propose an exact solution method to generate fair policies in Multiobjective Markov Decision Processes (MMDPs). MMDPs consider n immediate reward functions, representing either individual payoffs in a multiagent problem or rewards with respect to different objectives. In this context, we focus on the determination of a policy that fairly shares regrets among agents or objectives, the regret being defined on each dimension as the opportunity loss with respect to optimal expected rewards. To this end, we propose to minimize the ordered weighted average of regrets (OWR). The OWR criterion indeed extends the minimax regret, relaxing egalitarianism for a milder notion of fairness. After showing that OWR-optimality is state-dependent and that the Bellman principle does not hold for OWR-optimal policies, we propose a linear programming reformulation of the problem. We also provide experimental results showing the efficiency of our approach. We consider schemes for obtaining truthful reports on a common but hidden signal from large groups of rational, self-interested agents. One example are online feedback mechanisms, where users provide observations about the quality of a product or service so that other users can have an accurate idea of what quality they can expect. However, (i) providing such feedback is costly, and (ii) there are many motivations for providing incorrect feedback. Both problems can be addressed by reward schemes which (i) cover the cost of obtaining and reporting feedback, and (ii) maximize the expected reward of a rational agent who reports truthfully. We address the design of such incentive-compatible rewards for feedback generated in environments with pure adverse selection. Here, the correlation between the true knowledge of an agent and her beliefs regarding the likelihoods of reports of other agents can be exploited to make honest reporting a Nash equilibrium. In this paper we extend existing methods for designing incentive-compatible rewards by also considering collusion. We analyze different scenarios, where, for example, some or all of the agents collude. For each scenario we investigate whether a collusion-resistant, incentive-compatible reward scheme exists, and use automated mechanism design to specify an algorithm for deriving an efficient reward mechanism. Imitation learning of sequential, goal-directed behavior by standard supervised techniques is often difficult. We frame learning such behaviors as a maximum margin structured prediction problem over a space of policies. In this approach, we learn mappings from features to cost so an optimal policy in an MDP with these cost mimics the expert's behavior. Further, we demonstrate a simple, provably efficient approach to structured maximum margin learning, based on the subgradient method, that leverages existing fast algorithms for inference. Although the technique is general, it is particularly relevant in problems where A* and dynamic programming approaches make learning policies tractable in problems beyond the limitations of a QP formulation. We demonstrate our approach applied to route planning for outdoor mobile robots, where the behavior a designer wishes a planner to execute is often clear, while specifying cost functions that engender this behavior is a much more difficult task. Abstract With regard to future service robots, unsafe exceptional circumstances can occur in complex systems that are hardly to foresee. In this paper, the assumption of having no knowledge about the environment is investigated using reinforcement learning as an option for learning behavior by trial-and-error. In such a scenario, action-selection decisions are made based on future reward predictions for minimizing costs in reaching a goal. It is shown that the selection of safety-critical actions leading to highly negative costs from the environment is directly related to the exploration exploitation dilemma in temporal-difference learning. For this, several exploration policies are investigated with regard to worst- and best-case performance in a dynamic environment. Our results show that in contrast to established exploration policies like e-Greedy and Softmax, the recently proposed VDBE-Softmax policy seems to be more appropriate for such applications due to its robustness of the exploration parameter for unexpected situations. We investigate the problem of planning under uncertainty, with application to mobile robotics. We propose a probabilistic framework in which the robot bases its decisions on the generalized belief, which is a probabilistic description of its own state and of external variables of interest. The approach naturally leads to a dual-layer architecture: an inner estimation layer, which performs inference to predict the outcome of possible decisions; and an outer decisional layer which is in charge of deciding the best action to undertake. Decision making is entrusted to a model predictive control MPC scheme. The formulation is valid for general cost functions and does not discretize the state or control space, enabling planning in continuous domain. Moreover, it allows to relax the assumption of maximum likelihood observations: predicted measurements are treated as random variables, and binary random variables are used to model the event that a measurement is actually taken by the robot. We successfully apply our approach to the problem of uncertainty-constrained exploration, in which the robot has to perform tasks in an unknown environment, while maintaining localization uncertainty within given bounds. We present an extensive numerical analysis of the proposed approach and compare it against related work. In practice, our planning approach produces smooth and natural trajectories and is able to impose soft upper bounds on the uncertainty. Finally, we exploit the results of this analysis to identify current limitations and show that the proposed framework can accommodate several desirable extensions. This paper considers agency in the setting of embodied or active inference. In brief, we associate a sense of agency with prior beliefs about action and ask what sorts of beliefs underlie optimal behaviour. In particular, we consider prior beliefs that action minimises the Kullback-Leibler divergence between desired states and attainable states in the future. This allows one to formulate bounded rationality as approximate Bayesian inference that optimises a free energy bound on model evidence. We show that constructs like expected utility, exploration bonuses, softmax choice rules and optimism bias emerge as natural consequences of this formulation. Previous accounts of active inference have focused on predictive coding and Bayesian filtering schemes for minimising free energy. Here, we consider variational Bayes as an alternative scheme that provides formal constraints on the computational anatomy of inference and action – constraints that are remarkably consistent with neuroanatomy. Furthermore, this scheme contextualises optimal decision theory and economic (utilitarian) formulations as pure inference problems. For example, expected utility theory emerges as a special case of free energy minimisation, where the sensitivity or inverse temperature (of softmax functions and quantal response equilibria) has a unique and Bayes-optimal solution – that minimises free energy. This sensitivity corresponds to the precision of beliefs about behaviour, such that attainable goals are afforded a higher precision or confidence. In turn, this means that optimal behaviour entails a representation of confidence about outcomes that are under an agent's control. In this paper, we consider Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with error states. Error states are those states entering which is undesirable or dangerous. We define the risk with respect to a policy as the probability of entering such a state when the policy is pursued. We consider the problem of finding good policies whose risk is smaller than some user-specified threshold, and formalize it as a constrained MDP with two criteria. The first criterion corresponds to the value function originally given. We will show that the risk can be formulated as a second criterion function based on a cumulative return, whose definition is independent of the original value function. We present a model free, heuristic reinforcement learning algorithm that aims at finding good deterministic policies. It is based on weighting the original value function and the risk. The weight parameter is adapted in order to find a feasible solution for the constrained problem that has a good performance with respect to the value function. The algorithm was successfully applied to the control of a feed tank with stochastic inflows that lies upstream of a distillation column. This control task was originally formulated as an optimal control problem with chance constraints, and it was solved under certain assumptions on the model to obtain an optimal solution. The power of our learning algorithm is that it can be used even when some of these restrictive assumptions are relaxed. A key problem in structured output prediction is direct optimization of the task reward function that matters for test evaluation. This paper presents a simple and computationally efficient approach to incorporate task reward into a maximum likelihood framework. By establishing a link between the log-likelihood and expected reward objectives, we show that an optimal regularized expected reward is achieved when the conditional distribution of the outputs given the inputs is proportional to their exponentiated scaled rewards. Accordingly, we present a framework to smooth the predictive probability of the outputs using their corresponding rewards. We optimize the conditional log-probability of augmented outputs that are sampled proportionally to their exponentiated scaled rewards. Experiments on neural sequence to sequence models for speech recognition and machine translation show notable improvements over a maximum likelihood baseline by using reward augmented maximum likelihood (RML), where the rewards are defined as the negative edit distance between the outputs and the ground truth labels. In this semi-tutorial paper, we first review the information-theoretic approach to account for the computational costs incurred during the search for optimal actions in a sequential decision-making problem. The traditional (MDP) framework ignores computational limitations while searching for optimal policies, essentially assuming that the acting agent is perfectly rational and aims for exact optimality. Using the free-energy, a variational principle is introduced that accounts not only for the value of a policy alone, but also considers the cost of finding this optimal policy. The solution of the variational equations arising from this formulation can be obtained using familiar Bellman-like value iterations from dynamic programming (DP) and the Blahut-Arimoto (BA) algorithm from rate distortion theory. Finally, we demonstrate the utility of the approach for generating hierarchies of state abstractions that can be used to best exploit the available computational resources. A numerical example showcases these concepts for a path-planning problem in a grid world environment. In standard reinforcement learning, each new skill requires a manually-designed reward function, which takes considerable manual effort and engineering. Self-supervised goal setting has the potential to automate this process, enabling an agent to propose its own goals and acquire skills that achieve these goals. However, such methods typically rely on manually-designed goal distributions, or heuristics to force the agent to explore a wide range of states. We propose a formal exploration objective for goal-reaching policies that maximizes state coverage. We show that this objective is equivalent to maximizing the entropy of the goal distribution together with goal reaching performance, where goals correspond to entire states. We present an algorithm called Skew-Fit for learning such a maximum-entropy goal distribution, and show that under certain regularity conditions, our method converges to a uniform distribution over the set of possible states, even when we do not know this set beforehand. Skew-Fit enables self-supervised agents to autonomously choose and practice diverse goals. Our experiments show that it can learn a variety of manipulation tasks from images, including opening a door with a real robot, entirely from scratch and without any manually-designed reward function. In the classical stochastic k-armed bandit problem, in each of a sequence of T rounds, a decision maker chooses one of k arms and incurs a cost chosen from an unknown distribution associated with that arm. The goal is to minimize regret, defined as the difference between the cost incurred by the algorithm and the optimal cost. In the linear optimization version of this problem (first considered by Auer [2002]), we view the arms as vectors in R, and require that the costs be linear functions of the chosen vector. As before, it is assumed that the cost functions are sampled independently from an unknown distribution. In this setting, the goal is to find algorithms whose running time and regret behave well as functions of the number of rounds T and the dimensionality n (rather than the number of arms, k, which may be exponential in n or even infinite). We give a nearly complete characterization of this problem in terms of both upper and lower bounds for the regret. In certain special cases (such as when the decision region is a polytope), the regret is polylog(T ). In general though, the optimal regret is Θ∗( √ T ) — our lower bounds rule out the possibility of obtaining polylog(T ) rates in general. We present two variants of an algorithm based on the idea of “upper confidence bounds.” The first, due to Auer [2002], but not fully analyzed, obtains regret whose dependence on n and T are both essentially optimal, but which may be computationally intractable when the decision set is a polytope. The second version can be efficiently implemented when the decision set is a polytope (given as an intersection of half-spaces), but gives up a factor of √ n in the regret bound. Our results also extend to the setting where the set of allowed decisions may change over time. ∗Department of Computer Science, University of Chicago, varsha@cs.uchicago.edu †Toyota Technological Institute at Chicago, hayest,sham @tti-c.org Consider a setting where robots must visit sites represented as nodes in a graph, but each robot may fail when traversing an edge. The goal is to find a set of paths for a team of robots which maximizes the expected number of nodes collectively visited, while guaranteeing that the paths satisfy a notion of “independence” formalized by a matroid (e.g. limits on team size, number of visits to regions), and that the probabilities that each robot survives to its destination are above a given threshold. We call this problem the Matroid Team Surviving Orienteers (MTSO) problem, which has broad applications such as environmental monitoring in risky regions and search and rescue in dangerous conditions. We present the MTSO formally and detail numerous examples of matroids in a path planning context. We then propose an approximate greedy algorithm for selecting a feasible set of paths and prove that the value of the output is within a factor p s p s + λ of the optimum, where p s is the per-robot survival probability threshold and 1 λ ≤ 1 is the approximation factor of an oracle routine for the well known orienteering problem. We demonstrate the efficiency of our approach by applying it to a scenario where a team of robots must gather information while avoiding pirates in the Coral Triangle. Standard value function approaches to finding policies for Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) are generally considered to be intractable for large models. The intractability of these algorithms is to a large extent a consequence of computing an exact, optimal policy over the entire belief space. However, in real-world POMDP problems, computing the optimal policy for the full belief space is often unnecessary for good control even for problems with complicated policy classes. The beliefs experienced by the controller often lie near a structured, low-dimensional subspace embedded in the high-dimensional belief space. Finding a good approximation to the optimal value function for only this subspace can be much easier than computing the full value function. We introduce a new method for solving large-scale POMDPs by reducing the dimensionality of the belief space. We use Exponential family Principal Components Analysis (Collins, Dasgupta, & Schapire, 2002) to represent sparse, high-dimensional belief spaces using small sets of learned features of the belief state. We then plan only in terms of the low-dimensional belief features. By planning in this low-dimensional space, we can find policies for POMDP models that are orders of magnitude larger than models that can be handled by conventional techniques. We demonstrate the use of this algorithm on a synthetic problem and on mobile robot navigation tasks. Motivated by online recommendation and advertising systems, we consider a causal model for stochastic contextual bandits with a latent low-dimensional confounder. In our model, there are @math observed contexts and @math arms of the bandit. The observed context influences the reward obtained through a latent confounder variable with cardinality @math ( @math ). The arm choice and the latent confounder causally determines the reward while the observed context is correlated with the confounder. Under this model, the @math mean reward matrix @math (for each context in @math and each arm in @math ) factorizes into non-negative factors @math ( @math ) and @math ( @math ). This insight enables us to propose an @math -greedy NMF-Bandit algorithm that designs a sequence of interventions (selecting specific arms), that achieves a balance between learning this low-dimensional structure and selecting the best arm to minimize regret. Our algorithm achieves a regret of @math at time @math , as compared to @math for conventional contextual bandits, assuming a constant gap between the best arm and the rest for each context. These guarantees are obtained under mild sufficiency conditions on the factors that are weaker versions of the well-known Statistical RIP condition. We further propose a class of generative models that satisfy our sufficient conditions, and derive a lower bound of @math . These are the first regret guarantees for online matrix completion with bandit feedback, when the rank is greater than one. We further compare the performance of our algorithm with the state of the art, on synthetic and real world data-sets. Reinforcement Learning (RL) agents require the specification of a reward signal for learning behaviours. However, introduction of corrupt or stochastic rewards can yield high variance in learning. Such corruption may be a direct result of goal misspecification, randomness in the reward signal, or correlation of the reward with external factors that are not known to the agent. Corruption or stochasticity of the reward signal can be especially problematic in robotics, where goal specification can be particularly difficult for complex tasks. While many variance reduction techniques have been studied to improve the robustness of the RL process, handling such stochastic or corrupted reward structures remains difficult. As an alternative for handling this scenario in model-free RL methods, we suggest using an estimator for both rewards and value functions. We demonstrate that this improves performance under corrupted stochastic rewards in both the tabular and non-linear function approximation settings for a variety of noise types and environments. The use of reward estimation is a robust and easy-to-implement improvement for handling corrupted reward signals in model-free RL. This paper presents a critique of expected utility theory as a descriptive model of decision making under risk, and develops an alternative model, called prospect theory. Choices among risky prospects exhibit several pervasive effects that are inconsistent with the basic tenets of utility theory. In particular, people underweight outcomes that are merely probable in comparison with outcomes that are obtained with certainty. This tendency, called the certainty effect, contributes to risk aversion in choices involving sure gains and to risk seeking in choices involving sure losses. In addition, people generally discard components that are shared by all prospects under consideration. This tendency, called the isolation effect, leads to inconsistent preferences when the same choice is presented in different forms. An alternative theory of choice is developed, in which value is assigned to gains and losses rather than to final assets and in which probabilities are replaced by decision weights. The value function is normally concave for gains, commonly convex for losses, and is generally steeper for losses than for gains. Decision weights are generally lower than the corresponding probabilities, except in the range of low prob- abilities. Overweighting of low probabilities may contribute to the attractiveness of both insurance and gambling. EXPECTED UTILITY THEORY has dominated the analysis of decision making under risk. It has been generally accepted as a normative model of rational choice (24), and widely applied as a descriptive model of economic behavior, e.g. (15, 4). Thus, it is assumed that all reasonable people would wish to obey the axioms of the theory (47, 36), and that most people actually do, most of the time. The present paper describes several classes of choice problems in which preferences systematically violate the axioms of expected utility theory. In the light of these observations we argue that utility theory, as it is commonly interpreted and applied, is not an adequate descriptive model and we propose an alternative account of choice under risk. 2. CRITIQUE Inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) attempts to infer human rewards or preferences from observed behavior. Since human planning systematically deviates from rationality, several approaches have been tried to account for specific human shortcomings. However, the general problem of inferring the reward function of an agent of unknown rationality has received little attention. Unlike the well-known ambiguity problems in IRL, this one is practically relevant but cannot be resolved by observing the agent's policy in enough environments. This paper shows (1) that a No Free Lunch result implies it is impossible to uniquely decompose a policy into a planning algorithm and reward function, and (2) that even with a reasonable simplicity prior Occam's razor on the set of decompositions, we cannot distinguish between the true decomposition and others that lead to high regret. To address this, we need simple normative' assumptions, which cannot be deduced exclusively from observations. Agents are asked to rank two objects in a setting where effort is costly and agents differ in quality (which is the probability that they can identify the correct, ground truth, ranking). We study simple output-agreement mechanisms that pay an agent in the case she agrees with the report of another, and potentially penalizes for disagreement through a negative payment. Assuming access to a quality oracle, able to determine whether an agent's quality is above a given threshold, we design a payment scheme that aligns incentives so that agents whose quality is above this threshold participate and invest effort. Precluding negative payments leads the expected cost of this quality-oracle mechanism to increase by a factor of 2 to 5 relative to allowing both positive and negative payments. Dropping the assumption about access to a quality oracle, we further show that negative payments can be used to make agents with quality lower than the quality threshold choose to not to participate, while those above continue to participate and invest effort. Through the appropriate choice of payments, any design threshold can be achieved. This self-selection mechanism has the same expected cost as the cost-minimal quality-oracle mechanism, and thus when using the self-selection mechanism, perfect screening comes for free.