Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) place priors over the parameters in a neural network. Inference in BNNs, however, is difficult; all inference methods for BNNs are approximate. In this work, we empirically compare the quality of predictive uncertainty estimates for 10 common inference methods on both regression and classification tasks. Our experiments demonstrate that commonly used metrics (e.g. test log-likelihood) can be misleading. Our experiments also indicate that inference innovations designed to capture structure in the posterior do not necessarily produce high quality posterior approximations.
Finally, Dropout @cite_15 and ensemble methods @cite_10 @cite_9 @cite_14 by-pass the difficulties of performing Bayesian inference and obtain predictive uncertainty estimates through implicitly or explicitly training multiple models on the same data.
@cite_9 @cite_15 @cite_14 @cite_10
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To obtain uncertainty estimates with real-world Bayesian deep learning models, practical inference approximations are needed. Dropout variational inference (VI) for example has been used for machine vision and medical applications, but VI can severely underestimates model uncertainty. Alpha-divergences are alternative divergences to VI's KL objective, which are able to avoid VI's uncertainty underestimation. But these are hard to use in practice: existing techniques can only use Gaussian approximating distributions, and require existing models to be changed radically, thus are of limited use for practitioners. We propose a reparametrisation of the alpha-divergence objectives, deriving a simple inference technique which, together with dropout, can be easily implemented with existing models by simply changing the loss of the model. We demonstrate improved uncertainty estimates and accuracy compared to VI in dropout networks. We study our model's epistemic uncertainty far away from the data using adversarial images, showing that these can be distinguished from non-adversarial images by examining our model's uncertainty. As deep neural networks (DNNs) are applied to increasingly challenging problems, they will need to be able to represent their own uncertainty. Modeling uncertainty is one of the key features of Bayesian methods. Using Bernoulli dropout with sampling at prediction time has recently been proposed as an efficient and well performing variational inference method for DNNs. However, sampling from other multiplicative noise based variational distributions has not been investigated in depth. We evaluated Bayesian DNNs trained with Bernoulli or Gaussian multiplicative masking of either the units (dropout) or the weights (dropconnect). We tested the calibration of the probabilistic predictions of Bayesian convolutional neural networks (CNNs) on MNIST and CIFAR-10. Sampling at prediction time increased the calibration of the DNNs' probabalistic predictions. Sampling weights, whether Gaussian or Bernoulli, led to more robust representation of uncertainty compared to sampling of units. However, using either Gaussian or Bernoulli dropout led to increased test set classification accuracy. Based on these findings we used both Bernoulli dropout and Gaussian dropconnect concurrently, which we show approximates the use of a spike-and-slab variational distribution without increasing the number of learned parameters. We found that spike-and-slab sampling had higher test set performance than Gaussian dropconnect and more robustly represented its uncertainty compared to Bernoulli dropout. Deep learning tools have gained tremendous attention in applied machine learning. However such tools for regression and classification do not capture model uncertainty. In comparison, Bayesian models offer a mathematically grounded framework to reason about model uncertainty, but usually come with a prohibitive computational cost. In this paper we develop a new theoretical framework casting dropout training in deep neural networks (NNs) as approximate Bayesian inference in deep Gaussian processes. A direct result of this theory gives us tools to model uncertainty with dropout NNs - extracting information from existing models that has been thrown away so far. This mitigates the problem of representing uncertainty in deep learning without sacrificing either computational complexity or test accuracy. We perform an extensive study of the properties of dropout's uncertainty. Various network architectures and nonlinearities are assessed on tasks of regression and classification, using MNIST as an example. We show a considerable improvement in predictive log-likelihood and RMSE compared to existing state-of-the-art methods, and finish by using dropout's uncertainty in deep reinforcement learning. Dropout is one of the key techniques to prevent the learning from overfitting. It is explained that dropout works as a kind of modified L2 regularization. Here, we shed light on the dropout from Bayesian standpoint. Bayesian interpretation enables us to optimize the dropout rate, which is beneficial for learning of weight parameters and prediction after learning. The experiment result also encourages the optimization of the dropout. For autonomous agents to successfully operate in the real world, the ability to anticipate future scene states is a key competence. In real-world scenarios, future states become increasingly uncertain and multi-modal, particularly on long time horizons. Dropout based Bayesian inference provides a computationally tractable, theoretically well grounded approach to learn likely hypotheses models to deal with uncertain futures and make predictions that correspond well to observations -- are well calibrated. However, it turns out that such approaches fall short to capture complex real-world scenes, even falling behind in accuracy when compared to the plain deterministic approaches. This is because the used log-likelihood estimate discourages diversity. In this work, we propose a novel Bayesian formulation for anticipating future scene states which leverages synthetic likelihoods that encourage the learning of diverse models to accurately capture the multi-modal nature of future scene states. We show that our approach achieves accurate state-of-the-art predictions and calibrated probabilities through extensive experiments for scene anticipation on Cityscapes dataset. Moreover, we show that our approach generalizes across diverse tasks such as digit generation and precipitation forecasting. Deep learning tools have gained tremendous attention in applied machine learning. However such tools for regression and classification do not capture model uncertainty. In comparison, Bayesian models offer a mathematically grounded framework to reason about model uncertainty, but usually come with a prohibitive computational cost. In this paper we develop a new theoretical framework casting dropout training in deep neural networks (NNs) as approximate Bayesian inference in deep Gaussian processes. A direct result of this theory gives us tools to model uncertainty with dropout NNs -- extracting information from existing models that has been thrown away so far. This mitigates the problem of representing uncertainty in deep learning without sacrificing either computational complexity or test accuracy. We perform an extensive study of the properties of dropout's uncertainty. Various network architectures and non-linearities are assessed on tasks of regression and classification, using MNIST as an example. We show a considerable improvement in predictive log-likelihood and RMSE compared to existing state-of-the-art methods, and finish by using dropout's uncertainty in deep reinforcement learning. Dropout has been witnessed with great success in training deep neural networks by independently zeroing out the outputs of neurons at random. It has also received a surge of interest for shallow learning, e.g., logistic regression. However, the independent sampling for dropout could be suboptimal for the sake of convergence. In this paper, we propose to use multinomial sampling for dropout, i.e., sampling features or neurons according to a multinomial distribution with different probabilities for different features neurons. To exhibit the optimal dropout probabilities, we analyze the shallow learning with multinomial dropout and establish the risk bound for stochastic optimization. By minimizing a sampling dependent factor in the risk bound, we obtain a distribution-dependent dropout with sampling probabilities dependent on the second order statistics of the data distribution. To tackle the issue of evolving distribution of neurons in deep learning, we propose an efficient adaptive dropout (named ) that computes the sampling probabilities on-the-fly from a mini-batch of examples. Empirical studies on several benchmark datasets demonstrate that the proposed dropouts achieve not only much faster convergence and but also a smaller testing error than the standard dropout. For example, on the CIFAR-100 data, the evolutional dropout achieves relative improvements over 10 on the prediction performance and over 50 on the convergence speed compared to the standard dropout. Multi-layer neural networks have lead to remarkable performance on many kinds of benchmark tasks in text, speech and image processing. Nonlinear parameter estimation in hierarchical models is known to be subject to overfitting and misspecification. One approach to these estimation and related problems (local minima, colinearity, feature discovery etc.) is called Dropout (Hinton, et al 2012, 2016). The Dropout algorithm removes hidden units according to a Bernoulli random variable with probability @math prior to each update, creating random "shocks" to the network that are averaged over updates. In this paper we will show that Dropout is a special case of a more general model published originally in 1990 called the Stochastic Delta Rule, or SDR (Hanson, 1990). SDR redefines each weight in the network as a random variable with mean @math and standard deviation @math . Each weight random variable is sampled on each forward activation, consequently creating an exponential number of potential networks with shared weights. Both parameters are updated according to prediction error, thus resulting in weight noise injections that reflect a local history of prediction error and local model averaging. SDR therefore implements a more sensitive local gradient-dependent simulated annealing per weight converging in the limit to a Bayes optimal network. Tests on standard benchmarks (CIFAR) using a modified version of DenseNet shows the SDR outperforms standard Dropout in test error by approx. @math with DenseNet-BC 250 on CIFAR-100 and approx. @math in smaller networks. We also show that SDR reaches the same accuracy that Dropout attains in 100 epochs in as few as 35 epochs. Learning to infer Bayesian posterior from a few-shot dataset is an important step towards robust meta-learning due to the model uncertainty inherent in the problem. In this paper, we propose a novel Bayesian model-agnostic meta-learning method. The proposed method combines scalable gradient-based meta-learning with nonparametric variational inference in a principled probabilistic framework. During fast adaptation, the method is capable of learning complex uncertainty structure beyond a point estimate or a simple Gaussian approximation. In addition, a robust Bayesian meta-update mechanism with a new meta-loss prevents overfitting during meta-update. Remaining an efficient gradient-based meta-learner, the method is also model-agnostic and simple to implement. Experiment results show the accuracy and robustness of the proposed method in various tasks: sinusoidal regression, image classification, active learning, and reinforcement learning. The recently proposed semi-supervised learning methods exploit consistency loss between different predictions under random perturbations. Typically, a student model is trained to predict consistently with the targets generated by a noisy teacher. However, they ignore the fact that not all training data provide meaningful and reliable information in terms of consistency. For misclassified data, blindly minimizing the consistency loss around them can hinder learning. In this paper, we propose a novel certainty-driven consistency loss (CCL) to dynamically select data samples that have relatively low uncertainty. Specifically, we measure the variance or entropy of multiple predictions under random augmentations and dropout as an estimation of uncertainty. Then, we introduce two approaches, i.e. Filtering CCL and Temperature CCL to guide the student learn more meaningful and certain reliable targets, and hence improve the quality of the gradients backpropagated to the student. Experiments demonstrate the advantages of the proposed method over the state-of-the-art semi-supervised deep learning methods on three benchmark datasets: SVHN, CIFAR10, and CIFAR100. Our method also shows robustness to noisy labels. As deep neural networks (DNNs) are applied to increasingly challenging problems, they will need to be able to represent their own uncertainty. Modelling uncertainty is one of the key features of Bayesian methods. Bayesian DNNs that use dropout-based variational distributions and scale to complex tasks have recently been proposed. We evaluate Bayesian DNNs trained with Bernoulli or Gaussian multiplicative masking of either the units (dropout) or the weights (dropconnect). We compare these Bayesian DNNs ability to represent their uncertainty about their outputs through sampling during inference. We tested the calibration of these Bayesian fully connected and convolutional DNNs on two visual inference tasks (MNIST and CIFAR-10). By adding different levels of Gaussian noise to the test images, we assessed how these DNNs represented their uncertainty about regions of input space not covered by the training set. These Bayesian DNNs represented their own uncertainty more accurately than traditional DNNs with a softmax output. We find that sampling of weights, whether Gaussian or Bernoulli, led to more accurate representation of uncertainty compared to sampling of units. However, sampling units using either Gaussian or Bernoulli dropout led to increased convolutional neural network (CNN) classification accuracy. Based on these findings we use both Bernoulli dropout and Gaussian dropconnect concurrently, which approximates the use of a spike-and-slab variational distribution. We find that networks with spike-and-slab sampling combine the advantages of the other methods: they classify with high accuracy and robustly represent the uncertainty of their classifications for all tested architectures. Student modeling is an important component of ITS research because it can help guide the behavior of a running tutor and help researchers understand how students learn. Due to its predictive accuracy, interpretability and ability to infer student knowledge, Corbett & Anderson’s Bayesian Knowledge Tracing is one of the most popular student models. However, researchers have discovered problems with some of the most popular methods of fitting it. These problems include: multiple sets of highly dissimilar parameters predicting the data equally well (identifiability), local minima, degenerate parameters, and computational cost during fitting. Some researchers have proposed new fitting procedures to combat these problems, but are more complex and not completely successful at eliminating the problems they set out to prevent. We instead fit parameters by estimating the mostly likely point that each student learned the skill, developing a new method that avoids the above problems while achieving similar predictive accuracy. © 2018 by authors.All right reserved. Dropout, a stochastic regularisation technique for training of neural networks, has recently been reinterpreted as a specific type of approximate inference algorithm for Bayesian neural networks. The main contribution of the reinterpretation is in providing a theoretical framework useful for analysing and extending the algorithm. We show that the proposed framework suffers from several issues; from undefined or pathological behaviour of the true posterior related to use of improper priors, to an ill-defined variational objective due to singularity of the approximating distribution relative to the true posterior. Our analysis of the improper log uniform prior used in variational Gaussian dropout suggests the pathologies are generally irredeemable, and that the algorithm still works only because the variational formulation annuls some of the pathologies. To address the singularity issue, we proffer Quasi-KL (QKL) divergence, a new approximate inference objective for approximation of high-dimensional distributions. We show that motivations for variational Bernoulli dropout based on discretisation and noise have QKL as a limit. Properties of QKL are studied both theoretically and on a simple practical example which shows that the QKL-optimal approximation of a full rank Gaussian with a degenerate one naturally leads to the Principal Component Analysis solution. We investigate a local reparameterizaton technique for greatly reducing the variance of stochastic gradients for variational Bayesian inference (SGVB) of a posterior over model parameters, while retaining parallelizability. This local reparameterization translates uncertainty about global parameters into local noise that is independent across datapoints in the minibatch. Such parameterizations can be trivially parallelized and have variance that is inversely proportional to the mini-batch size, generally leading to much faster convergence. Additionally, we explore a connection with dropout: Gaussian dropout objectives correspond to SGVB with local reparameterization, a scale-invariant prior and proportionally fixed posterior variance. Our method allows inference of more flexibly parameterized posteriors; specifically, we propose variational dropout, a generalization of Gaussian dropout where the dropout rates are learned, often leading to better models. The method is demonstrated through several experiments. We explore a recently proposed Variational Dropout technique that provided an elegant Bayesian interpretation to Gaussian Dropout. We extend Variational Dropout to the case when dropout rates are unbounded, propose a way to reduce the variance of the gradient estimator and report first experimental results with individual dropout rates per weight. Interestingly, it leads to extremely sparse solutions both in fully-connected and convolutional layers. This effect is similar to automatic relevance determination effect in empirical Bayes but has a number of advantages. We reduce the number of parameters up to 280 times on LeNet architectures and up to 68 times on VGG-like networks with a negligible decrease of accuracy. We explore a recently proposed Variational Dropout technique that provided an elegant Bayesian interpretation to Gaussian Dropout. We extend Variational Dropout to the case when dropout rates are unbounded, propose a way to reduce the variance of the gradient estimator and report first experimental results with individual dropout rates per weight. Interestingly, it leads to extremely sparse solutions both in fully-connected and convolutional layers. This effect is similar to automatic relevance determination effect in empirical Bayes but has a number of advantages. We reduce the number of parameters up to 280 times on LeNet architectures and up to 68 times on VGG-like networks with a negligible decrease of accuracy. Given multiple prediction problems such as regression or classification, we are interested in a joint inference framework that can effectively share information between tasks to improve the prediction accuracy, especially when the number of training examples per problem is small. In this paper we propose a probabilistic framework which can support a set of latent variable models for different multi-task learning scenarios. We show that the framework is a generalization of standard learning methods for single prediction problems and it can effectively model the shared structure among different prediction tasks. Furthermore, we present efficient algorithms for the empirical Bayes method as well as point estimation. Our experiments on both simulated datasets and real world classification datasets show the effectiveness of the proposed models in two evaluation settings: a standard multi-task learning setting and a transfer learning setting. In this paper, a dropout prediction method for e-learning courses, based on three popular machine learning techniques and detailed student data, is proposed. The machine learning techniques used are feed-forward neural networks, support vector machines and probabilistic ensemble simplified fuzzy ARTMAP. Since a single technique may fail to accurately classify some e-learning students, whereas another may succeed, three decision schemes, which combine in different ways the results of the three machine learning techniques, were also tested. The method was examined in terms of overall accuracy, sensitivity and precision and its results were found to be significantly better than those reported in relevant literature. We develop a general framework for distribution-free predictive inference in regression, using conformal inference. The proposed methodology allows for the construction of a prediction band for the response variable using any estimator of the regression function. The resulting prediction band preserves the consistency properties of the original estimator under standard assumptions, while guaranteeing finite-sample marginal coverage even when these assumptions do not hold. We analyze and compare, both empirically and theoretically, the two major variants of our conformal framework: full conformal inference and split conformal inference, along with a related jackknife method. These methods offer different tradeoffs between statistical accuracy (length of resulting prediction intervals) and computational efficiency. As extensions, we develop a method for constructing valid in-sample prediction intervals called rank-one-out conformal inference, which has essentially the same computational efficiency as split conformal inference. We also describe an extension of our procedures for producing prediction bands with locally varying length, in order to adapt to heteroskedascity in the data. Finally, we propose a model-free notion of variable importance, called leave-one-covariate-out or LOCO inference. Accompanying this paper is an R package conformalInference that implements all of the proposals we have introduced. In the spirit of reproducibility, all of our empirical results can also be easily (re)generated using this package. Dropout-based regularization methods can be regarded as injecting random noise with pre-defined magnitude to different parts of the neural network during training. It was recently shown that Bayesian dropout procedure not only improves gener- alization but also leads to extremely sparse neural architectures by automatically setting the individual noise magnitude per weight. However, this sparsity can hardly be used for acceleration since it is unstructured. In the paper, we propose a new Bayesian model that takes into account the computational structure of neural net- works and provides structured sparsity, e.g. removes neurons and or convolutional channels in CNNs. To do this we inject noise to the neurons outputs while keeping the weights unregularized. We establish the probabilistic model with a proper truncated log-uniform prior over the noise and truncated log-normal variational approximation that ensures that the KL-term in the evidence lower bound is com- puted in closed-form. The model leads to structured sparsity by removing elements with a low SNR from the computation graph and provides significant acceleration on a number of deep neural architectures. The model is easy to implement as it can be formulated as a separate dropout-like layer.