Similarity-based approaches represent a promising direction for time series analysis. However, many such methods rely on parameter tuning, and some have shortcomings if the time series are multivariate (MTS), due to dependencies between attributes, or the time series contain missing data. In this paper, we address these challenges within the powerful context of kernel methods by proposing the robust (TCK). The approach taken leverages the missing data handling properties of Gaussian mixture models (GMM) augmented with informative prior distributions. An ensemble learning approach is exploited to ensure robustness to parameters by combining the clustering results of many GMM to form the final kernel. We evaluate the TCK on synthetic and real data and compare to other state-of-the-art techniques. The experimental results demonstrate that the TCK is robust to parameter choices, provides competitive results for MTS without missing data and outstanding results for missing data.
The simplest possible approach is to treat the time series as vectors and apply well-known kernels such as a linear or radial basis kernel @cite_32 . While this approach works well in some circumstances, time dependencies and the relationships among multiple attributes in the MTS are not explicitly modeled.
@cite_32
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Multivariate time series (MTS) classification has gained importance with the increase in the number of temporal datasets in different domains (such as medicine, finance, multimedia, etc.). Similarity-based approaches, such as nearest-neighbor classifiers, are often used for univariate time series, but MTS are characterized not only by individual attributes, but also by their relationships. Here we provide a classifier based on a new symbolic representation for MTS (denoted as SMTS) with several important elements. SMTS considers all attributes of MTS simultaneously, rather than separately, to extract information contained in the relationships. Symbols are learned from a supervised algorithm that does not require pre-defined intervals, nor features. An elementary representation is used that consists of the time index, and the values (and first differences for numerical attributes) of the individual time series as columns. That is, there is essentially no feature extraction (aside from first differences) and the local series values are fused to time position through the time index. The initial representation of raw data is quite simple conceptually and operationally. Still, a tree-based ensemble can detect interactions in the space of the time index and time values and this is exploited to generate a high-dimensional codebook from the terminal nodes of the trees. Because the time index is included as an attribute, each MTS is learned to be segmented by time, or by the value of one of its attributes. The codebook is processed with a second ensemble where now implicit feature selection is exploited to handle the high-dimensional input. The constituent properties produce a distinctly different algorithm. Moreover, MTS with nominal and missing values are handled efficiently with tree learners. Experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in terms of accuracy and computation times in a large collection multivariate (and univariate) datasets. Time series data mining has received much greater interest along with the increase in temporal data sets from different domains such as medicine, finance, multimedia, etc. Representations are important to reduce dimensionality and generate useful similarity measures. High-level representations such as Fourier transforms, wavelets, piecewise polynomial models, etc., were considered previously. Recently, autoregressive kernels were introduced to reflect the similarity of the time series. We introduce a novel approach to model the dependency structure in time series that generalizes the concept of autoregression to local autopatterns. Our approach generates a pattern-based representation along with a similarity measure called learned pattern similarity (LPS). A tree-based ensemble-learning strategy that is fast and insensitive to parameter settings is the basis for the approach. Then, a robust similarity measure based on the learned patterns is presented. This unsupervised approach to represent and measure the similarity between time series generally applies to a number of data mining tasks (e.g., clustering, anomaly detection, classification). Furthermore, an embedded learning of the representation avoids pre-defined features and an extraction step which is common in some feature-based approaches. The method generalizes in a straightforward manner to multivariate time series. The effectiveness of LPS is evaluated on time series classification problems from various domains. We compare LPS to eleven well-known similarity measures. Our experimental results show that LPS provides fast and competitive results on benchmark datasets from several domains. Furthermore, LPS provides a research direction and template approach that breaks from the linear dependency models to potentially foster other promising nonlinear approaches. We propose in this work a new family of kernels for variable-length time series. Our work builds upon the vector autoregressive (VAR) model for multivariate stochastic processes: given a multivariate time series x, we consider the likelihood function p_ (x) of different parameters in the VAR model as features to describe x. To compare two time series x and x', we form the product of their features p_ (x) p_ (x') which is integrated out w.r.t using a matrix normal-inverse Wishart prior. Among other properties, this kernel can be easily computed when the dimension d of the time series is much larger than the lengths of the considered time series x and x'. It can also be generalized to time series taking values in arbitrary state spaces, as long as the state space itself is endowed with a kernel . In that case, the kernel between x and x' is a a function of the Gram matrices produced by on observations and subsequences of observations enumerated in x and x'. We describe a computationally efficient implementation of this generalization that uses low-rank matrix factorization techniques. These kernels are compared to other known kernels using a set of benchmark classification tasks carried out with support vector machines. One approach to improving the running time of kernel-based methods is to build a small sketch of the kernel matrix and use it in lieu of the full matrix in the machine learning task of interest. Here, we describe a version of this approach that comes with running time guarantees as well as improved guarantees on its statistical performance. By extending the notion of statistical leverage scores to the setting of kernel ridge regression, we are able to identify a sampling distribution that reduces the size of the sketch (i.e., the required number of columns to be sampled) to the effective dimensionality of the problem. This latter quantity is often much smaller than previous bounds that depend on the maximal degrees of freedom. We give an empirical evidence supporting this fact. Our second contribution is to present a fast algorithm to quickly compute coarse approximations to these scores in time linear in the number of samples. More precisely, the running time of the algorithm is O(np2) with p only depending on the trace of the kernel matrix and the regularization parameter. This is obtained via a variant of squared length sampling that we adapt to the kernel setting. Lastly, we discuss how this new notion of the leverage of a data point captures a fine notion of the difficulty of the learning problem. A common way to represent a time series is to divide it into short-duration blocks, each of which is then represented by a set of basis functions. A limitation of this approach, however, is that the temporal alignment of the basis functions with the underlying structure in the time series is arbitrary. We present an algorithm for encoding a time series that does not require blocking the data. The algorithm finds an efficient representation by inferring the best temporal positions for functions in a kernel basis. These can have arbitrary temporal extent and are not constrained to be orthogonal. This allows the model to capture structure in the signal that may occur at arbitrary temporal positions and preserves the relative temporal structure of underlying events. The model is shown to be equivalent to a very sparse and highly overcomplete basis. Under this model, the mapping from the data to the representation is nonlinear, but can be computed efficiently. This form also allows the use of existing methods for adapting the basis itself to data. This approach is applied to speech data and results in a shift invariant, spikelike representation that resembles coding in the cochlear nerve. In this paper, we propose support vector-based supervised learning algorithms, called multiclass support vector data description with weighted dynamic time warping kernel function (MSVDD-WDTWK) and multiclass support vector machines with weighted dynamic time warping kernel function (MSVM-WDTWK), which provides a flexible and robust kernel function for time series classification between non-aligned time series data resulting in improved accuracy. The proposed WDTW kernel function provides an optimal match between two time series data by not only allowing a non-linear mapping between two data sequences, but also considering relative significance depending on the phase difference between points on time series data. We validate the proposed approaches using extensive numerical experiments on a number of multiclass UCR time series data mining archive, and demonstrate that our proposed methods provide lower classification error rates compared with existing techniques. We consider the problem of finding rules relating patterns in a time series to other patterns in that series, or patterns in one series to patterns in another series. A simple example is a rule such as "a period of low telephone call activity is usually followed by a sharp rise in call volume". Examples of rules relating two or more time series are "if the Microsoft stock price goes up and Intel falls, then IBM goes up the next day," and "if Microsoft goes up strongly for one day, then declines strongly on the next day, and on the same days Intel stays about level, then IBM stays about level." Our emphasis is in the discovery of local patterns in multivariate time series, in contrast to traditional time series analysis which largely focuses on global models. Thus, we search for rules whose conditions refer to patterns in time series. However, we do not want to define beforehand which patterns are to be used; rather, we want the patterns to be formed from the data in the context of rule discovery. We describe adaptive methods for finding rules of the above type from time-series data. The methods are based on discretizing the sequence by methods resembling vector quantization. We first form subsequences by sliding a window through the time series, and then cluster these subsequences by using a suitable measure of time-series similarity. The discretized version of the time series is obtained by taking the cluster identifiers corresponding to the subsequence. Once the time-series is discretized, we use simple rule finding methods to obtain rules from the sequence. We present empirical results on the behavior of the method. We consider supervised learning problems within the positive-definite kernel framework, such as kernel ridge regression, kernel logistic regression or the support vector machine. With kernels leading to infinite-dimensional feature spaces, a common practical limiting difficulty is the necessity of computing the kernel matrix, which most frequently leads to algorithms with running time at least quadratic in the number of observations n, i.e., O(n^2). Low-rank approximations of the kernel matrix are often considered as they allow the reduction of running time complexities to O(p^2 n), where p is the rank of the approximation. The practicality of such methods thus depends on the required rank p. In this paper, we show that in the context of kernel ridge regression, for approximations based on a random subset of columns of the original kernel matrix, the rank p may be chosen to be linear in the degrees of freedom associated with the problem, a quantity which is classically used in the statistical analysis of such methods, and is often seen as the implicit number of parameters of non-parametric estimators. This result enables simple algorithms that have sub-quadratic running time complexity, but provably exhibit the same predictive performance than existing algorithms, for any given problem instance, and not only for worst-case situations. textabstractForecasting financial time series using past observations has been a significant topic of interest. While temporal relationships in the data exist, they are difficult to analyze and predict accurately due to the non-linear trends and noise present in the series. We propose to learn these dependencies by a convolutional neural network. In particular the focus is on multivariate time series forecasting. Effectively, we use multiple financial time series as input in the neural network, thus conditioning the forecast of a time series x(t) on both its own history as well as that of a second (or third) time series y(t). Training a model on multiple stock series allows the network to exploit the correlation structure between these series so that the network can learn the market dynamics in shorter sequences of data. We show that long-term temporal dependencies in and between financial time series can be learned by means of a deep convolutional neural network based on the WaveNet model [2]. The network makes use of dilated convolutions applied to multiple time series so that the receptive field of the network is wide enough to learn both short and long-term dependencies. The architecture includes batch normalization and uses a 1 × k convolution with parametrized skip connections from the input time series as well as the time series we condition on, in this way learning long-term interdependencies in an efficient manner [1]. This improves the forecast, while at the same time limiting the requirement for a long historical price series and reducing the noise. Knowing the strong performance of CNNs on classification problems we show that they can be applied successfully to forecasting financial time series, without the need of large samples of data. We compare the performance of the WaveNet model to a state-of-the-art fully convolutional network (FCN), and an autoregressive model popular in econometrics and show that our model is much better able to learn important dependencies in between financial time series resulting in a more robust and accurate forecast. We consider supervised learning problems within the positive-definite kernel framework, such as kernel ridge regression, kernel logistic regression or the support vector machine. With kernels leading to infinite-dimensional feature spaces, a common practi cal limiting difficulty is the necessity of computing the kernel matrix, which most frequently leads to algorithms with running time at least quadratic in the number of observations n, i.e., O(n 2 ). Low-rank approximations of the kernel matrix are often considered as they allow the reduction of running time complexities to O(p 2 n), where p is the rank of the approximation. The practicality of such methods thus depends on the required rank p. In this paper, we show that in the context of kernel ridge regression, for approximations based on a random subset of columns of the original kernel matrix, the rank p may be chosen to be linear in the degrees of freedom associated with the problem, a quantity which is classically used in the statistical analysis of such method s, and is often seen as the implicit number of parameters of non-parametric estimators. This result enables simple algorithms that have sub-quadratic running time complexity, but provably exhibit the same predictive performancethan existing algorithms, for any given problem instance, and not only for worst-case situations. In time series mining, one of the interesting tasks that attract many researchers is time series clustering which is classified into two main categories. Whole time series clustering considers how to cluster multiple time series, and the other one is Subsequence Time Series (STS) clustering, a clustering of subparts or subsequences within a single time series. Deplorably, STS clustering is not preferable even though it had widely been used as a subroutine in various mining tasks, e.g., rule discovery, anomaly detection, or classification, due to the recent finding a decade ago that STS clustering problem can produce meaningless results. There have been numerous attempts to resolve this problem but seemed to be unsuccessful. Until the two most recent attempts, they seem to accomplish in producing meaningful results; however, their approaches do need some predefined constraint values, such as the width of the subsequences that are in fact quite subjective and sensitive. Thus, we propose a novel parameter-free clustering technique to eliminate this problem by utilizing a motif discovery algorithm and some statistical principles to properly determine these parameters. Our experimental results from well-known datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm in selecting the proper subsequence width, and in turn leading to meaningful and highly accurate results. Effective use of support vector machines (SVMs) in classification necessitates the appropriate choice of a kernel. Designing problem specific kernels involves the definition of a similarity measure, with the condition that kernels are positive semi-definite (PSD). An alternative approach which places no such restrictions on the similarity measure is to construct a set of inputs and let each example be represented by its similarity to all the examples in this set and then apply a conventional SVM to this transformed data. Dynamic time warping (DTW) is a well established distance measure for time series but has been of limited use in SVMs since it is not obvious how it can be used to derive a PSD kernel. The feasibility of the similarity based approach for DTW is investigated by applying the method to a large set of time-series classification problems. The increasing availability of temporal network data is calling for more research on extracting and characterizing mesoscopic structures in temporal networks and on relating such structure to specific functions or properties of the system. An outstanding challenge is the extension of the results achieved for static networks to time-varying networks, where the topological structure of the system and the temporal activity patterns of its components are intertwined. Here we investigate the use of a latent factor decomposition technique, non-negative tensor factorization, to extract the community-activity structure of temporal networks. The method is intrinsically temporal and allows to simultaneously identify communities and to track their activity over time. We represent the time-varying adjacency matrix of a temporal network as a three-way tensor and approximate this tensor as a sum of terms that can be interpreted as communities of nodes with an associated activity time series. We summarize known computational techniques for tensor decomposition and discuss some quality metrics that can be used to tune the complexity of the factorized representation. We subsequently apply tensor factorization to a temporal network for which a ground truth is available for both the community structure and the temporal activity patterns. The data we use describe the social interactions of students in a school, the associations between students and school classes, and the spatio-temporal trajectories of students over time. We show that non-negative tensor factorization is capable of recovering the class structure with high accuracy. In particular, the extracted tensor components can be validated either as known school classes, or in terms of correlated activity patterns, i.e., of spatial and temporal coincidences that are determined by the known school activity schedule. In this paper we formulate multi-target tracking (MTT) as a rank-1 tensor approximation problem and propose an l1 norm tensor power iteration solution. In particular, a high order tensor is constructed based on trajectories in the time window, with each tensor element as the affinity of the corresponding trajectory candidate. The local assignment variables are the l1 normalized vectors, which are used to approximate the rank-1 tensor. Our approach provides a flexible and effective formulation where both pairwise and high-order association energies can be used expediently. We also show the close relation between our formulation and the multi-dimensional assignment (MDA) model. To solve the optimization in the rank-1 tensor approximation, we propose an algorithm that iteratively powers the intermediate solution followed by an l1 normalization. Aside from effectively capturing high-order motion information, the proposed solver runs efficiently with proved convergence. The experimental validations are conducted on two challenging datasets and our method demonstrates promising performances on both. Time series stored as feature vectors can be indexed by multidimensional index trees like R-Trees for fast retrieval. Due to the dimensionality curse problem, transformations are applied to time series to reduce the number of dimensions of the feature vectors. Different transformations like Discrete Fourier Transform (DFT) Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT), Karhunen-Loeve (KL) transform or Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) can be applied. While the use of DFT and K-L transform or SVD have been studied on the literature, to our knowledge, there is no in-depth study on the application of DWT. In this paper we propose to use Haar Wavelet Transform for time series indexing. The major contributions are: (1) we show that Euclidean distance is preserved in the Haar transformed domain and no false dismissal will occur, (2) we show that Haar transform can outperform DFT through experiments, (3) a new similarity model is suggested to accommodate vertical shift of time series, and (4) a two-phase method is proposed for efficient n-nearest neighbor query in time series databases. Discovering recurring patterns in time series data is a fundamental problem for temporal data mining. This paper addresses the problem of locating subdimensional motifs in real-valued, multivariate time series, which requires the simultaneous discovery of sets of recurring patterns along with the corresponding relevant dimensions. While many approaches to motif discovery have been developed, most are restricted to categorical data, univariate time series, or multivariate data in which the temporal patterns span all of the dimensions. In this paper, we present an expected linear-time algorithm that addresses a generalization of multivariate pattern discovery in which each motif may span only a subset of the dimensions. To validate our algorithm, we discuss its theoretical properties and empirically evaluate it using several data sets including synthetic data and motion capture data collected by an on-body iner- tial sensor. For more than a decade, time series similarity search has been given a great deal of attention by data mining researchers. As a result, many time series representations and distance measures have been proposed. However, most existing work on time series similarity search relies on shape-based similarity matching. While some of the existing approaches work well for short time series data, they typically fail to produce satisfactory results when the sequence is long. For long sequences, it is more appropriate to consider the similarity based on the higher-level structures. In this work, we present a histogram-based representation for time series data, similar to the "bag of words" approach that is widely accepted by the text mining and information retrieval communities. We performed extensive experiments and show that our approach outperforms the leading existing methods in clustering, classification, and anomaly detection on dozens of real datasets. We further demonstrate that the representation allows rotation-invariant matching in shape datasets. Clustering time series data using the popular subsequence (STS) technique has been widely used in the data mining and wider communities. Recently the conclusion was made that it is meaningless, based on the findings that it produces (a) clustering outcomes for distinct time series that are not distinguishable from one another, and (b) cluster centroids that are smoothed. More recent work has since showed that (a) could be solved by introducing a lag in the subsequence vector construction process, however we show in this paper that such an approach does not solve (b). Motivating the terminology that a clustering method which overcomes (a) is meaningful, while one which overcomes (a) and (b) is useful, we propose an approach that produces useful time series clustering. The approach is based on restricting the clustering space to extend only over the region visited by the time series in the subsequence vector space. We test the approach on a set of 12 diverse real-world and synthetic data sets and find that (a) one can distinguish between the clusterings of these time series, and (b) that the centroids produced in each case retain the character of the underlying series from which they came. This paper describes a generalized axiomatic scale-space theory that makes it possible to derive the notions of linear scale-space, affine Gaussian scale-space and linear spatio-temporal scale-space using a similar set of assumptions (scale-space axioms). The notion of non-enhancement of local extrema is generalized from previous application over discrete and rotationally symmetric kernels to continuous and more general non-isotropic kernels over both spatial and spatio-temporal image domains. It is shown how a complete classification can be given of the linear (Gaussian) scale-space concepts that satisfy these conditions on isotropic spatial, non-isotropic spatial and spatio-temporal domains, which results in a general taxonomy of Gaussian scale-spaces for continuous image data. The resulting theory allows filter shapes to be tuned from specific context information and provides a theoretical foundation for the recently exploited mechanisms of shape adaptation and velocity adaptation, with highly useful applications in computer vision. It is also shown how time-causal spatio-temporal scale-spaces can be derived from similar assumptions. The mathematical structure of these scale-spaces is analyzed in detail concerning transformation properties over space and time, the temporal cascade structure they satisfy over time as well as properties of the resulting multi-scale spatio-temporal derivative operators. It is also shown how temporal derivatives with respect to transformed time can be defined, leading to the formulation of a novel analogue of scale normalized derivatives for time-causal scale-spaces. The kernels generated from these two types of theories have interesting relations to biological vision. We show how filter kernels generated from the Gaussian spatio-temporal scale-space as well as the time-causal spatio-temporal scale-space relate to spatio-temporal receptive field profiles registered from mammalian vision. Specifically, we show that there are close analogies to space-time separable cells in the LGN as well as to both space-time separable and non-separable cells in the striate cortex. We do also present a set of plausible models for complex cells using extended quasi-quadrature measures expressed in terms of scale normalized spatio-temporal derivatives. The theories presented as well as their relations to biological vision show that it is possible to describe a general set of Gaussian and or time-causal scale-spaces using a unified framework, which generalizes and complements previously presented scale-space formulations in this area. Domain specific (dis-)similarity or proximity measures used e.g. in alignment algorithms of sequence data are popular to analyze complicated data objects and to cover domain specific data properties. Without an underlying vector space these data are given as pairwise (dis-)similarities only. The few available methods for such data focus widely on similarities and do not scale to large datasets. Kernel methods are very effective for metric similarity matrices, also at large scale, but costly transformations are necessary starting with non-metric (dis-) similarities. We propose an integrative combination of Nystrom approximation, potential double centering and eigenvalue correction to obtain valid kernel matrices at linear costs in the number of samples. By the proposed approach effective kernel approaches become accessible. Experiments with several larger (dis-)similarity datasets show that the proposed method achieves much better runtime performance than the standard strategy while keeping competitive model accuracy. The main contribution is an efficient and accurate technique, to convert (potentially non-metric) large scale dissimilarity matrices into approximated positive semi-definite kernel matrices at linear costs. HighlightsWe propose a linear time and memory efficient approach for converting low rank dissimilarity matrices to similarity matrices and vice versa.Our approach is applicable for proximities obtained from non-metric proximity measures (indefinite kernels, non-standard dissimilarity measures).The presented approach also comprises a generalization of Landmark MDS - the presented approach is in general more accurate and flexible than Landmark MDS.We provide an alternative derivation of the Nystrom approximation together with a convergence proof, also for indefinite kernels not given in the workshop paper as a core element of the approach.