We consider the problem of inferring the directed, causal graph from observational data, assuming no hidden confounders. We take an information theoretic approach, and make three main contributions. First, we show how through algorithmic information theory we can obtain SCI, a highly robust, effective and computationally efficient test for conditional independence---and show it outperforms the state of the art when applied in constraint-based inference methods such as stable PC. Second, building upon on SCI, we show how to tell apart the parents and children of a given node based on the algorithmic Markov condition. We give the Climb algorithm to efficiently discover the directed, causal Markov blanket---and show it is at least as accurate as inferring the global network, while being much more efficient. Last, but not least, we detail how we can use the Climb score to direct those edges that state of the art causal discovery algorithms based on PC or GES leave undirected---and show this improves their precision, recall and F1 scores by up to 20 .
The discovery of Markov blankets is important in two regards. First, it represents the optimal set of variables for feature selection @cite_15 and second, for investigating the local structure around a target it is much faster than discovering the whole Bayesian network @cite_2 . The idea of first discovering the neighbourhood of a node, instead of the full Bayesian network got more common with the grow and shrink (GS) algorithm @cite_8 . It consists of two sub routines. First, it discovers the potential parents and children in a bottom up approach. Then, it finds the spouses based on the parents and children from the previous step.
@cite_8 @cite_15 @cite_2
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This paper presents a number of new algorithms for discovering the Markov Blanket of a target variable T from training data. The Markov Blanket can be used for variable selection for classification, for causal discovery, and for Bayesian Network learning. We introduce a low-order polynomial algorithm and several variants that soundly induce the Markov Blanket under certain broad conditions in datasets with thousands of variables and compare them to other state-of-the-art local and global methods with excellent results. Finding an efficient way to discover Markov blanket is one of the core issue s in data mining. This paper first discusses the problems existed in IAMB algorithm which is a typical algorithm for discovering the Markov b lanket of a target variable from the training dat a, and then proposes an improved algorithm λ -IAMB based on the improving approach which contains two aspects: code optimization and the improving strategy for conditional independence testing. E xperimental results show that λ -IAMB algorithm performs better than IAMB by finding Markov blanket of variables in typical Bayesian network and by testing the performance of them as feature selection method on some well-known real world datasets . Learning Markov blanket (MB) structures has proven useful in performing feature selection, learning Bayesian networks (BNs), and discovering causal relationships. We present a formula for efficiently determining the number of MB structures given a target variable and a set of other variables. As expected, the number of MB structures grows exponentially. However, we show quantitatively that there are many fewer MB structures that contain the target variable than there are BN structures that contain it. In particular, the ratio of BN structures to MB structures appears to increase exponentially in the number of variables. In many multivariate domains, we are interested in analyzing the dependency structure of the underlying distribution, e.g., whether two variables are in direct interaction. We can represent dependency structures using Bayesian network models. To analyze a given data set, Bayesian model selection attempts to find the most likely (MAP) model, and uses its structure to answer these questions. However, when the amount of available data is modest, there might be many models that have non-negligible posterior. Thus, we want compute the Bayesian posterior of a feature, i.e., the total posterior probability of all models that contain it. In this paper, we propose a new approach for this task. We first show how to efficiently compute a sum over the exponential number of networks that are consistent with a fixed order over network variables. This allows us to compute, for a given order, both the marginal probability of the data and the posterior of a feature. We then use this result as the basis for an algorithm that approximates the Bayesian posterior of a feature. Our approach uses a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, but over orders rather than over network structures. The space of orders is smaller and more regular than the space of structures, and has much a smoother posterior “landscape”. We present empirical results on synthetic and real-life datasets that compare our approach to full model averaging (when possible), to MCMC over network structures, and to a non-Bayesian bootstrap approach. In this paper we present a Bayesian framework for parsing images into their constituent visual patterns. The parsing algorithm optimizes the posterior probability and outputs a scene representation as a "parsing graph", in a spirit similar to parsing sentences in speech and natural language. The algorithm constructs the parsing graph and re-configures it dynamically using a set of moves, which are mostly reversible Markov chain jumps. This computational framework integrates two popular inference approaches--generative (top-down) methods and discriminative (bottom-up) methods. The former formulates the posterior probability in terms of generative models for images defined by likelihood functions and priors. The latter computes discriminative probabilities based on a sequence (cascade) of bottom-up tests filters. In our Markov chain algorithm design, the posterior probability, defined by the generative models, is the invariant (target) probability for the Markov chain, and the discriminative probabilities are used to construct proposal probabilities to drive the Markov chain. Intuitively, the bottom-up discriminative probabilities activate top-down generative models. In this paper, we focus on two types of visual patterns--generic visual patterns, such as texture and shading, and object patterns including human faces and text. These types of patterns compete and cooperate to explain the image and so image parsing unifies image segmentation, object detection, and recognition (if we use generic visual patterns only then image parsing will correspond to image segmentation (Tu and Zhu, 2002. IEEE Trans. PAMI, 24(5):657--673). We illustrate our algorithm on natural images of complex city scenes and show examples where image segmentation can be improved by allowing object specific knowledge to disambiguate low-level segmentation cues, and conversely where object detection can be improved by using generic visual patterns to explain away shadows and occlusions. We study a statistical model for the tensor principal component analysis problem introduced by Montanari and Richard: Given a order- @math tensor @math of the form @math , where @math is a signal-to-noise ratio, @math is a unit vector, and @math is a random noise tensor, the goal is to recover the planted vector @math . For the case that @math has iid standard Gaussian entries, we give an efficient algorithm to recover @math whenever @math , and certify that the recovered vector is close to a maximum likelihood estimator, all with high probability over the random choice of @math . The previous best algorithms with provable guarantees required @math . In the regime @math , natural tensor-unfolding-based spectral relaxations for the underlying optimization problem break down (in the sense that their integrality gap is large). To go beyond this barrier, we use convex relaxations based on the sum-of-squares method. Our recovery algorithm proceeds by rounding a degree- @math sum-of-squares relaxations of the maximum-likelihood-estimation problem for the statistical model. To complement our algorithmic results, we show that degree- @math sum-of-squares relaxations break down for @math , which demonstrates that improving our current guarantees (by more than logarithmic factors) would require new techniques or might even be intractable. Finally, we show how to exploit additional problem structure in order to solve our sum-of-squares relaxations, up to some approximation, very efficiently. Our fastest algorithm runs in nearly-linear time using shifted (matrix) power iteration and has similar guarantees as above. The analysis of this algorithm also confirms a variant of a conjecture of Montanari and Richard about singular vectors of tensor unfoldings. These lecture notes highlight the mathematical and computational structure relating to the formulation of, and development of algorithms for, the Bayesian approach to inverse problems in differential equations. This approach is fundamental in the quantification of uncertainty within applications in volving the blending of mathematical models with data. The finite dimensional situation is described first, along with some motivational examples. Then the development of probability measures on separable Banach space is undertaken, using a random series over an infinite set of functions to construct draws; these probability measures are used as priors in the Bayesian approach to inverse problems. Regularity of draws from the priors is studied in the natural Sobolev or Besov spaces implied by the choice of functions in the random series construction, and the Kolmogorov continuity theorem is used to extend regularity considerations to the space of Holder continuous functions. Bayes’ theorem is de rived in this prior setting, and here interpreted as finding conditions under which the posterior is absolutely continuous with respect to the prior, and determining a formula for the Radon-Nikodym derivative in terms of the likelihood of the data. Having established the form of the posterior, we then describe various properties common to it in the infinite dimensional setting. These properties include well-posedness, approximation theory, and the existence of maximum a posteriori estimators. We then describe measure-preserving dynamics, again on the infinite dimensional space, including Markov chain-Monte C arlo and sequential Monte Carlo methods, and measure-preserving reversible stochastic differential equations. By formulating the theory and algorithms on the underlying infinite dimensional space, we obtain a framework suitable for rigorous analysis of the accuracy of reconstructions, of computational complexity, as well as naturally constructing algorithms which perform well under mesh refinement, since they are inherently well-defined in infinite dimensions. We present a novel probabilistic approach for fitting a statistical model to an image. A 3D Morphable Model (3DMM) of faces is interpreted as a generative (Top-Down) Bayesian model. Random Forests are used as noisy detectors (Bottom-Up) for the face and facial landmark positions. The Top-Down and Bottom-Up parts are then combined using a Data-Driven Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method (DDMCMC). As core of the integration, we use the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm which has two main advantages. First, the algorithm can handle unreliable detections and therefore does not need the detectors to take an early and possible wrong hard decision before fitting. Second, it is open for integration of various cues to guide the fitting process. Based on the proposed approach, we implemented a completely automatic, pose and illumination invariant face recognition application. We are able to train and test the building blocks of our application on different databases. The system is evaluated on the Multi-PIE database and reaches state of the art performance. In recent years, Bayesian networks have become highly successful tool for diagnosis, analysis, and decision making in real-world domains. We present an efficient algorithm for learning Bayes networks from data. Our approach constructs Bayesian networks by first identifying each node's Markov blankets, then connecting nodes in a maximally consistent way. In contrast to the majority of work, which typically uses hill-climbing approaches that may produce dense and causally incorrect nets, our approach yields much more compact causal networks by heeding independencies in the data. Compact causal networks facilitate fast inference and are also easier to understand. We prove that under mild assumptions, our approach requires time polynomial in the size of the data and the number of nodes. A randomized variant, also presented here, yields comparable results at much higher speeds. Three Bayesian related approaches, namely, variational Bayesian (VB), minimum message length (MML) and Bayesian Ying-Yang (BYY) harmony learning, have been applied to automatically determining an appropriate number of components during learning Gaussian mixture model (GMM). This paper aims to provide a comparative investigation on these approaches with not only a Jeffreys prior but also a conjugate Dirichlet-Normal-Wishart (DNW) prior on GMM. In addition to adopting the existing algorithms either directly or with some modifications, the algorithm for VB with Jeffreys prior and the algorithm for BYY with DNW prior are developed in this paper to fill the missing gap. The performances of automatic model selection are evaluated through extensive experiments, with several empirical findings: 1) Considering priors merely on the mixing weights, each of three approaches makes biased mistakes, while considering priors on all the parameters of GMM makes each approach reduce its bias and also improve its performance. 2) As Jeffreys prior is replaced by the DNW prior, all the three approaches improve their performances. Moreover, Jeffreys prior makes MML slightly better than VB, while the DNW prior makes VB better than MML. 3) As the hyperparameters of DNW prior are further optimized by each of its own learning principle, BYY improves its performances while VB and MML deteriorate their performances when there are too many free hyper-parameters. Actually, VB and MML lack a good guide for optimizing the hyper-parameters of DNW prior. 4) BYY considerably outperforms both VB and MML for any type of priors and whether hyper-parameters are optimized. Being different from VB and MML that rely on appropriate priors to perform model selection, BYY does not highly depend on the type of priors. It has model selection ability even without priors and performs already very well with Jeffreys prior, and incrementally improves as Jeffreys prior is replaced by the DNW prior. Finally, all algorithms are applied on the Berkeley segmentation database of real world images. Again, BYY considerably outperforms both VB and MML, especially in detecting the objects of interest from a confusing background. We consider the question of computing Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) assignment in an arbitrary pair-wise Markov Random Field (MRF). We present a randomized iterative algorithm based on simple local updates. The algorithm, starting with an arbitrary initial assignment, updates it in each iteration by first, picking a random node, then selecting an (appropriately chosen) random local neighborhood and optimizing over this local neighborhood. Somewhat surprisingly, we show that this algorithm finds a near optimal assignment within n log2 n iterations with high probability for any n node pair-wise MRF with geometry (i.e. MRF graph with polynomial growth) with the approximation error depending on (in a reasonable manner) the geometric growth rate of the graph and the average radius of the local neighborhood - this allows for a graceful tradeoff between the complexity of the algorithm and the approximation error. Through extensive simulations, we show that our algorithm finds extremely good approximate solutions for various kinds of MRFs with geometry. Learning the most probable a posteriori Bayesian network from data has been shown to be an NP-Hard problem and typical state-of-the-art algorithms are exponential in the worst case. However, an important open problem in the field is to identify the least restrictive set of assumptions and corresponding algorithms under which learning the optimal network becomes polynomial. In this paper, we present a technique for learning the skeleton of a Bayesian network, called Polynomial Max-Min Skeleton (PMMS), and compare it with Three Phase Dependency Analysis, another state-ofthe-art polynomial algorithm. This analysis considers both the theoretical and empirical differences between the two algorithms, and demonstrates PMMS’s advantages in both respects. When extended with a greedy hill-climbing Bayesianscoring search to orient the edges, the novel algorithm proved more time efficient, scalable, and accurate in quality of reconstruction than most state-of-the-art Bayesian network learning algorithms. The results show promise of the existence of polynomial algorithms that are provably correct under minimal distributional assumptions. Despite having various attractive qualities such as high prediction accuracy and the ability to quantify uncertainty and avoid over-fitting, Bayesian Matrix Factorization has not been widely adopted because of the prohibitive cost of inference. In this paper, we propose a scalable distributed Bayesian matrix factorization algorithm using stochastic gradient MCMC. Our algorithm, based on Distributed Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics, can not only match the prediction accuracy of standard MCMC methods like Gibbs sampling, but at the same time is as fast and simple as stochastic gradient descent. In our experiments, we show that our algorithm can achieve the same level of prediction accuracy as Gibbs sampling an order of magnitude faster. We also show that our method reduces the prediction error as fast as distributed stochastic gradient descent, achieving a 4.1 improvement in RMSE for the Netflix dataset and an 1.8 for the Yahoo music dataset. Privacy-preserving data publishing is an important problem that has been the focus of extensive study. The state-of-the-art solution for this problem is differential privacy, which offers a strong degree of privacy protection without making restrictive assumptions about the adversary. Existing techniques using differential privacy, however, cannot effectively handle the publication of high-dimensional data. In particular, when the input dataset contains a large number of attributes, existing methods require injecting a prohibitive amount of noise compared to the signal in the data, which renders the published data next to useless. To address the deficiency of the existing methods, this paper presents P riv B ayes , a differentially private method for releasing high-dimensional data. Given a dataset D, P riv B ayes first constructs a Bayesian network N, which (i) provides a succinct model of the correlations among the attributes in D and (ii) allows us to approximate the distribution of data in D using a set P of low-dimensional marginals of D. After that, P riv B ayes injects noise into each marginal in P to ensure differential privacy and then uses the noisy marginals and the Bayesian network to construct an approximation of the data distribution in D. Finally, P riv B ayes samples tuples from the approximate distribution to construct a synthetic dataset, and then releases the synthetic data. Intuitively, P riv B ayes circumvents the curse of dimensionality, as it injects noise into the low-dimensional marginals in P instead of the high-dimensional dataset D. Private construction of Bayesian networks turns out to be significantly challenging, and we introduce a novel approach that uses a surrogate function for mutual information to build the model more accurately. We experimentally evaluate P riv B ayes on real data and demonstrate that it significantly outperforms existing solutions in terms of accuracy. We propose a series of Bayesian nonparametric statistical models for community detection in graphs. We model the probability of the presence or absence of edges within the graph. Using these models, we naturally incorporate uncertainty and variability and take advantage of nonparametric techniques, such as the Chinese restaurant process and the Dirichlet process. Some of the contributions include: (a) the community structure is directly modeled without specifying the number of communities a priori; (b) the probabilities of edges within or between communities may be modeled as varying by community or pairs of communities; (c) some nodes can be classified as not belonging to any community; and (d) Bayesian model diagnostics are used to compare models and help with appropriate model selection. We start by fitting an initial model to a well-known network dataset, and we develop a series of increasingly complex models. We propose Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms to carry out the estimation as well as an app... We develop a probabilistic framework for adapting information extraction wrappers with new attribute discovery. Wrapper adaptation aims at automatically adapting a previously learned wrapper from the source Web site to a new unseen site for information extraction. One unique characteristic of our framework is that it can discover new or previously unseen attributes as well as headers from the new site. It is based on a generative model for the generation of text fragments related to attribute items and formatting data in a Web page. To solve the wrapper adaptation problem, we consider two kinds of information from the source Web site. The first kind of information is the extraction knowledge contained in the previously learned wrapper from the source Web site. The second kind of information is the previously extracted or collected items. We employ a Bayesian learning approach to automatically select a set of training examples for adapting a wrapper for the new unseen site. To solve the new attribute discovery problem, we develop a model which analyzes the surrounding text fragments of the attributes in the new unseen site. A Bayesian learning method is developed to discover the new attributes and their headers. EM technique is employed in both Bayesian learning models. We conducted extensive experiments from a number of real-world Web sites to demonstrate the effectiveness of our framework. We consider the problem of autonomously bringing an article of clothing into a desired configuration using a general-purpose two-armed robot. We propose a hidden Markov model (HMM) for estimating the identity of the article and tracking the article's configuration throughout a specific sequence of manipulations and observations. At the end of this sequence, the article's configuration is known, though not necessarily desired. The estimated identity and configuration of the article are then used to plan a second sequence of manipulations that brings the article into the desired configuration. We propose a relaxation of a strain-limiting finite element model for cloth simulation that can be solved via convex optimization; this serves as the basis of the transition and observation models of the HMM. The observation model uses simple perceptual cues consisting of the height of the article when held by a single gripper and the silhouette of the article when held by two grippers. The model accurately estimates the identity and configuration of clothing articles, enabling our procedure to autonomously bring a variety of articles into desired configurations that are useful for other tasks, such as folding. This paper examines the close interplay between cooperation and adaptation for distributed detection schemes over fully decentralized networks. The combined attributes of cooperation and adaptation are necessary to enable networks of detectors to continually learn from streaming data and to continually track drifts in the state of nature when deciding in favor of one hypothesis or another. The results in this paper establish a fundamental scaling law for the steady-state probabilities of miss detection and false alarm in the slow adaptation regime, when the agents interact with each other according to distributed strategies that employ small constant step-sizes. The latter are critical to enable continuous adaptation and learning. This paper establishes three key results. First, it is shown that the output of the collaborative process at each agent has a steady-state distribution. Second, it is shown that this distribution is asymptotically Gaussian in the slow adaptation regime of small step-sizes. Third, by carrying out a detailed large deviations analysis, closed-form expressions are derived for the decaying rates of the false-alarm and miss-detection probabilities. Interesting insights are gained from these expressions. In particular, it is verified that as the step-size @math decreases, the error probabilities are driven to zero exponentially fast as functions of @math , and that the exponents governing the decay increase linearly in the number of agents. It is also verified that the scaling laws governing the errors of detection and the errors of estimation over the network behave very differently, with the former having exponential decay proportional to @math , while the latter scales linearly with decay proportional to @math . Moreover, and interestingly, it is shown that the cooperative strategy allows each agent to reach the same detection performance, in terms of detection error exponents, of a centralized stochastic-gradient solution. The results of this paper are illustrated by applying them to canonical distributed detection problems. Given a large overcomplete dictionary of basis vectors, the goal is to simultaneously represent L>1 signal vectors using coefficient expansions marked by a common sparsity profile. This generalizes the standard sparse representation problem to the case where multiple responses exist that were putatively generated by the same small subset of features. Ideally, the associated sparse generating weights should be recovered, which can have physical significance in many applications (e.g., source localization). The generic solution to this problem is intractable and, therefore, approximate procedures are sought. Based on the concept of automatic relevance determination, this paper uses an empirical Bayesian prior to estimate a convenient posterior distribution over candidate basis vectors. This particular approximation enforces a common sparsity profile and consistently places its prominent posterior mass on the appropriate region of weight-space necessary for simultaneous sparse recovery. The resultant algorithm is then compared with multiple response extensions of matching pursuit, basis pursuit, FOCUSS, and Jeffreys prior-based Bayesian methods, finding that it often outperforms the others. Additional motivation for this particular choice of cost function is also provided, including the analysis of global and local minima and a variational derivation that highlights the similarities and differences between the proposed algorithm and previous approaches. We describe a Bayesian approach for learning Bayesian networks from a combination of prior knowledge and statistical data. First and foremost, we develop a methodology for assessing informative priors needed for learning. Our approach is derived from a set of assumptions made previously as well as the assumption of likelihood equivalence, which says that data should not help to discriminate network structures that represent the same assertions of conditional independence. We show that likelihood equivalence when combined with previously made assumptions implies that the user's priors for network parameters can be encoded in a single Bayesian network for the next case to be seen—a prior network—and a single measure of confidence for that network. Second, using these priors, we show how to compute the relative posterior probabilities of network structures given data. Third, we describe search methods for identifying network structures with high posterior probabilities. We describe polynomial algorithms for finding the highest-scoring network structures in the special case where every node has at most k e 1 parent. For the general case (k > 1), which is NP-hard, we review heuristic search algorithms including local search, iterative local search, and simulated annealing. Finally, we describe a methodology for evaluating Bayesian-network learning algorithms, and apply this approach to a comparison of various approaches.