So far it is unclear how different factors of a scientific publication recommender system based on users' tweets have an influence on the recommendation performance. We examine three different factors, namely profiling method, temporal decay, and richness of content. Regarding profiling, we compare CF-IDF that replaces terms in TF-IDF by semantic concepts, HCF-IDF as novel hierarchical variant of CF-IDF, and topic modeling. As temporal decay functions, we apply sliding window and exponential decay. In terms of the richness of content, we compare recommendations using both full-texts and titles of publications and using only titles. Overall, the three factors make twelve recommendation strategies. We have conducted an online experiment with 123 participants and compared the strategies in a within-group design. The best recommendations are achieved by the strategy combining CF-IDF, sliding window, and with full-texts. However, the strategies using the novel HCF-IDF profiling method achieve similar results with just using the titles of the publications. Therefore, HCF-IDF can make recommendations when only short and sparse data is available.
Time-aware user profiles are constructed based on the assumption that the degree of user interests declines as time passes. The decline of user interests is modeled by a decay function. In the past, the decay functions sliding window @cite_14 and exponential decay @cite_12 @cite_25 have been employed for user profiling. However, they have not been compared so far like we do in this work.
@cite_14 @cite_25 @cite_12
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Collaborative filtering (CF) techniques recommend items to users based on their historical ratings. In real-world scenarios, user interests may drift over time since they are affected by moods, contexts, and pop culture trends. This leads to the fact that a user's historical ratings comprise many aspects of user interests spanning a long time period. However, at a certain time slice, one user's interest may only focus on one or a couple of aspects. Thus, CF techniques based on the entire historical ratings may recommend inappropriate items. In this paper, we consider modeling user-interest drift over time based on the assumption that each user has multiple counterparts over temporal domains and successive counterparts are closely related. We adopt the cross-domain CF framework to share the static group-level rating matrix across temporal domains, and let user-interest distribution over item groups drift slightly between successive temporal domains. The derived method is based on a Bayesian latent factor model which can be inferred using Gibbs sampling. Our experimental results show that our method can achieve state-of-the-art recommendation performance as well as explicitly track and visualize user-interest drift over time. We study the distribution of the activity period of users in five of the largest localized versions of the free, on- line encyclopedia Wikipedia. We find it to be consis- tent with a mixture of two truncated log-normal distri- butions. Using this model, the temporal evolution of these systems can be analyzed, showing that the statis- tical description is consistent over time. contributions: 1. We find all datasets to be consistent with the hypothesis that the lifetime of an user account is described by the su- perposition of two truncated log-normal distributions. An interpretation for this phenomenon is that two different regimes govern the participation of individuals to these versions of the Wikipedia project: the occasional users, who fail to find interest in the project after the first few at- tempts to contribute, and the long-term users, whose with- drawal is probably more related to external factors like the loss of personal incentives in contributing and similar causes. 2. Using our model, we characterize how the participation of users over time evolves, as the system ages. We find that the statistical description of the one-timers is stable over time, while the properties of the group of long-term users change as a consequence of the aging of the system. 3. We find evidence that the inter-edit time distribution de- cays with an heavy tail. In view of this finding, we check that our analysis is not affected by the choice of the pa- rameter used for determining when an user is to be con- sidered "inactive"; we find that for the one-timers it has no quantitative effect. For the statistics of the long-lived users we find instead a very good qualitative agreement. Historical user activity is key for building user profiles to predict the user behavior and affinities in many web applications such as targeting of online advertising, content personalization and social recommendations. User profiles are temporal, and changes in a user's activity patterns are particularly useful for improved prediction and recommendation. For instance, an increased interest in car-related web pages may well suggest that the user might be shopping for a new vehicle.In this paper we present a comprehensive statistical framework for user profiling based on topic models which is able to capture such effects in a fully fashion. Our method models topical interests of a user dynamically where both the user association with the topics and the topics themselves are allowed to vary over time, thus ensuring that the profiles remain current. We describe a streaming, distributed inference algorithm which is able to handle tens of millions of users. Our results show that our model contributes towards improved behavioral targeting of display advertising relative to baseline models that do not incorporate topical and or temporal dependencies. As a side-effect our model yields human-understandable results which can be used in an intuitive fashion by advertisers. The frequently changing user preferences and or item profiles have put essential importance on the dynamic modeling of users and items in personalized recommender systems. However, due to the insufficiency of per user item records when splitting the already sparse data across time dimension, previous methods have to restrict the drifting purchasing patterns to pre-assumed distributions, and were hardly able to model them rather directly with, for example, time series analysis. Integrating content information helps to alleviate the problem in practical systems, but the domain-dependent content knowledge is expensive to obtain due to the large amount of manual efforts. In this paper, we make use of the large volume of textual reviews for the automatic extraction of domain knowledge, namely, the explicit features aspects in a specific product domain. We thus degrade the product-level modeling of user preferences, which suffers from the lack of data, to the feature-level modeling, which not only grants us the ability to predict user preferences through direct time series analysis, but also allows us to know the essence under the surface of product-level changes in purchasing patterns. Besides, the expanded feature space also helps to make cold-start recommendations for users with few purchasing records. Technically, we develop the Fourier-assisted Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (FARIMA) process to tackle with the year-long seasonal period of purchasing data to achieve daily-aware preference predictions, and we leverage the conditional opportunity models for daily-aware personalized recommendation. Extensive experimental results on real-world cosmetic purchasing data from a major e-commerce website (JD.com) in China verified both the effectiveness and efficiency of our approach. In recent years, many systems have been developed which aim at helping users to find pieces of information or other objects that are in accordance with their personal interests. In these systems, machine learning methods are often used to acquire the user interest profile. Frequently user interests drift with time. The ability to adapt fast to the current user's interests is an important feature for recommender systems. This paper presents a method for dealing with drifting interests by introducing the notion of gradual forgetting. Thus, the last observations should be more "important" for the learning algorithm than the old ones and the importance of an observation should decrease with time. The conducted experiments with a recommender system show that the gradual forgetting improves the ability to adapt to drifting user's interests. Experiments with the STAGGER problem provide additional evidences that gradual forgetting is able to improve the prediction accuracy on drifting concepts (incl. drifting user's interests). We focus on the problem of selecting meaningful tweets given a user's interests; the dynamic nature of user interests, the sheer volume, and the sparseness of individual messages make this an challenging problem. Specifically, we consider the task of time-aware tweets summarization, based on a user's history and collaborative social influences from social circles.'' We propose a time-aware user behavior model, the Tweet Propagation Model (TPM), in which we infer dynamic probabilistic distributions over interests and topics. We then explicitly consider novelty, coverage, and diversity to arrive at an iterative optimization algorithm for selecting tweets. Experimental results validate the effectiveness of our personalized time-aware tweets summarization method based on TPM. This paper intends to provide some insights of a scientific problem: how likely one's interests can be inferred from his her social connections -- friends, friends' friends, 3-degree friends, etc? Is "Birds of a Feather Flocks Together" a norm? We do not consider the friending activity on online social networking sites. Instead, we conduct this study by implementing a privacy-preserving large distribute social sensor system in a large global IT company to capture the multifaceted activities of 30,000+ people, including communications (e.g., emails, instant messaging, etc) and Web 2.0 activities (e.g., social bookmarking, file sharing, blogging, etc). These activities occupy the majority of employees' time in work, and thus, provide a high quality approximation to the real social connections of employees in the workplace context. In addition to such "informal networks", we investigated the "formal networks", such as their hierarchical structure, as well as the demographic profile data such as geography, job role, self-specified interests, etc. Because user ID matching across multiple sources on the Internet is very difficult, and most user activity logs have to be anonymized before they are processed, no prior studies could collect comparable multifaceted activity data of individuals. That makes this study unique. In this paper, we present a technique to predict the inference quality by utilizing (1) network analysis and network autocorrelation modeling of informal and formal networks, and (2) regression models to predict user interest inference quality from network characteristics. We verify our findings with experiments on both implicit user interests indicated by the content of communications or Web 2.0 activities, and explicit user interests specified in user profiles. We demonstrate that the inference quality prediction increases the inference quality of implicit interests by 42.8 , and inference quality of explicit interests by up to 101 . We examine the fundamental properties that determine the basic performance metrics for opportunistic communications. We first consider the distribution of inter-contact times between mobile devices. Using a diverse set of measured mobility traces, we find as an invariant property that there is a characteristic time, order of half a day, beyond which the distribution decays exponentially. Up to this value, the distribution in many cases follows a power law, as shown in recent work. This powerlaw finding was previously used to support the hypothesis that inter-contact time has a power law tail, and that common mobility models are not adequate. However, we observe that the time scale of interest for opportunistic forwarding may be of the same order as the characteristic time, and thus the exponential tail is important. We further show that already simple models such as random walk and random way point can exhibit the same dichotomy in the distribution of inter-contact time ascin empirical traces. Finally, we perform an extensive analysis of several properties of human mobility patterns across several dimensions, and we present empirical evidence that the return time of a mobile device to its favorite location site may already explain the observed dichotomy. Our findings suggest that existing results on the performance of forwarding schemes basedon power-law tails might be overly pessimistic. Insights into the behavior and preference of mobile device users from their web browsing application activities are critical components of any successful dynamic content recommendation system, mobile advertisement platform, or web personalization initiative. In this paper we use an unsupervised topic model to understand the interests of the cellular users based upon their browsing profile. We posit that the length of time a user remains on a given website is positively correlated with the user’s interest in the website’s content. We propose an extended model to integrate this duration information efficiently by oversampling the URLs. Time information plays a crucial role on social media popularity. Existing research on popularity prediction, effective though, ignores temporal information which is highly related to user-item associations and thus often results in limited success. An essential way is to consider all these factors (user, item, and time), which capture the dynamic nature of photo popularity. In this paper, we present a novel approach to factorize the popularity into user-item context and time-sensitive context for exploring the mechanism of dynamic popularity. The user-item context provides a holistic view of popularity, while the time-sensitive context captures the temporal dynamics nature of popularity. Accordingly, we develop two kinds of time-sensitive features, including user activeness variability and photo prevalence variability. To predict photo popularity, we propose a novel framework named Multi-scale Temporal Decomposition (MTD), which decomposes the popularity matrix in latent spaces based on contextual associations. Specifically, the proposed MTD models time-sensitive context on different time scales, which is beneficial to automatically learn temporal patterns. Based on the experiments conducted on a real-world dataset with 1.29M photos from Flickr, our proposed MTD can achieve the prediction accuracy of 79.8 and outperform the best three state-of-the-art methods with a relative improvement of 9.6 on average. We examine the fundamental properties that determine the basic performance metrics for opportunistic communications. We first consider the distribution of intercontact times between mobile devices. Using a diverse set of measured mobility traces, we find as an invariant property that there is a characteristic time, order of half a day, beyond which the distribution decays exponentially. Up to this value, the distribution in many cases follows a power law, as shown in recent work. This power law finding was previously used to support the hypothesis that intercontact time has a power law tail, and that common mobility models are not adequate. However, we observe that the timescale of interest for opportunistic forwarding may be of the same order as the characteristic time, and thus, the exponential tail is important. We further show that already simple models such as random walk and random waypoint can exhibit the same dichotomy in the distribution of intercontact time as in empirical traces. Finally, we perform an extensive analysis of several properties of human mobility patterns across several dimensions, and we present empirical evidence that the return time of a mobile device to its favorite location site may already explain the observed dichotomy. Our findings suggest that existing results on the performance of forwarding schemes based on power law tails might be overly pessimistic. The ability to predict future user activity is invaluable when it comes to content recommendation and personalization. For instance, knowing when users will return to an online music service and what they will listen to increases user satisfaction and therefore user retention. We present a model based on Long-Short Term Memory to estimate when a user will return to a site and what their future listening behavior will be. In doing so, we aim to solve the problem of Just-In-Time recommendation, that is, to recommend the right items at the right time. We use tools from survival analysis for return time prediction and exponential families for future activity analysis. We show that the resulting multitask problem can be solved accurately, when applied to two real-world datasets. User profiling techniques have mostly focused on retrieving and representing a user's knowledge, context and interests in order to provide recommendations, personalise search, and build user-adaptive systems. However, building a user profile on a single social network limits the quality and completeness of the profile, especially when interoperability of the profile is key and its reuse on different sites is necessary for providing other types of personalisation. Indeed recent studies have shown that users on the Social Web often use different social networking sites for diverse, and sometimes non-overlapping, purposes and interests. In this paper, we describe our methodology for the automatic creation and aggregation of interoperable and multi-domain user profiles of interests using semantic technologies. Moreover, we propose a user study on different user profiling techniques for social networking websites in general, and for Twitter and Facebook in particular. In this regard, based on the results of our user evaluation, we investigate (i) the accuracy of different methodologies for profiling, (ii) the effect of time decay functions on ranking user interests, and (iii) the benefits of merging different user models using semantic technologies. Customer preferences for products are drifting over time. Product perception and popularity are constantly changing as new selection emerges. Similarly, customer inclinations are evolving, leading them to ever redefine their taste. Thus, modeling temporal dynamics should be a key when designing recommender systems or general customer preference models. However, this raises unique challenges. Within the eco-system intersecting multiple products and customers, many different characteristics are shifting simultaneously, while many of them influence each other and often those shifts are delicate and associated with a few data instances. This distinguishes the problem from concept drift explorations, where mostly a single concept is tracked. Classical time-window or instance-decay approaches cannot work, as they lose too much signal when discarding data instances. A more sensitive approach is required, which can make better distinctions between transient effects and long term patterns. The paradigm we offer is creating a model tracking the time changing behavior throughout the life span of the data. This allows us to exploit the relevant components of all data instances, while discarding only what is modeled as being irrelevant. Accordingly, we revamp two leading collaborative filtering recommendation approaches. Evaluation is made on a large movie rating dataset by Netflix. Results are encouraging and better than those previously reported on this dataset. Customer preferences for products are drifting over time. Product perception and popularity are constantly changing as new selection emerges. Similarly, customer inclinations are evolving, leading them to ever redefine their taste. Thus, modeling temporal dynamics is essential for designing recommender systems or general customer preference models. However, this raises unique challenges. Within the ecosystem intersecting multiple products and customers, many different characteristics are shifting simultaneously, while many of them influence each other and often those shifts are delicate and associated with a few data instances. This distinguishes the problem from concept drift explorations, where mostly a single concept is tracked. Classical time-window or instance decay approaches cannot work, as they lose too many signals when discarding data instances. A more sensitive approach is required, which can make better distinctions between transient effects and long-term patterns. We show how to model the time changing behavior throughout the life span of the data. Such a model allows us to exploit the relevant components of all data instances, while discarding only what is modeled as being irrelevant. Accordingly, we revamp two leading collaborative filtering recommendation approaches. Evaluation is made on a large movie-rating dataset underlying the Netflix Prize contest. Results are encouraging and better than those previously reported on this dataset. In particular, methods described in this paper play a significant role in the solution that won the Netflix contest. User preferences are usually dynamic in real-world recommender systems, and a user»s historical behavior records may not be equally important when predicting his her future interests. Existing recommendation algorithms -- including both shallow and deep approaches -- usually embed a user»s historical records into a single latent vector representation, which may have lost the per item- or feature-level correlations between a user»s historical records and future interests. In this paper, we aim to express, store, and manipulate users» historical records in a more explicit, dynamic, and effective manner. To do so, we introduce the memory mechanism to recommender systems. Specifically, we design a memory-augmented neural network (MANN) integrated with the insights of collaborative filtering for recommendation. By leveraging the external memory matrix in MANN, we store and update users» historical records explicitly, which enhances the expressiveness of the model. We further adapt our framework to both item- and feature-level versions, and design the corresponding memory reading writing operations according to the nature of personalized recommendation scenarios. Compared with state-of-the-art methods that consider users» sequential behavior for recommendation, e.g., sequential recommenders with recurrent neural networks (RNN) or Markov chains, our method achieves significantly and consistently better performance on four real-world datasets. Moreover, experimental analyses show that our method is able to extract the intuitive patterns of how users» future actions are affected by previous behaviors. We study the detailed growth of a social networking site with full temporal information by examining the creation process of each friendship relation that can collectively lead to the macroscopic properties of the network. We first study the reciprocal behavior of users, and find that link requests are quickly responded to and that the distribution of reciprocation intervals decays in an exponential form. The degrees of inviters accepters are slightly negatively correlative with reciprocation time. In addition, the temporal feature of the online community shows that the distributions of intervals of user behaviors, such as sending or accepting link requests, follow a power law with a universal exponent, and peaks emerge for intervals of an integral day. We finally study the preferential selection and linking phenomena of the social networking site and find that, for the former, a linear preference holds for preferential sending and reception, and for the latter, a linear preference also holds for preferential acceptance, creation, and attachment. Based on the linearly preferential linking, we put forward an analyzable network model which can reproduce the degree distribution of the network. The research framework presented in the paper could provide a potential insight into how the micro-motives of users lead to the global structure of online social networks. Abstract Using the clickstream data recorded in Web server log files, the authors develop and estimate a model of the browsing behavior of visitors to a Web site. Two basic aspects of browsing behavior are examined: (1) the visitor’s decisions to continue browsing (by submitting an additional page request) or to exit the site and (2) the length of time spent viewing each page. The authors propose a type II tobit model that captures both aspects of browsing behavior and handles the limitations of server log-file data. The authors fit the model to the individual-level browsing decisions of a random sample of 5000 visitors to the Web site of an Internet automotive company. Empirical results show that visitors’ propensity to continue browsing changes dynamically as a function of the depth of a given site visit and the number of repeat visits to the site. The dynamics are consistent both with “within-site lock-in” or site “stickiness” and with learning that carries over repeat visits. In particular, repeat vis... We study the relationship between content and temporal dynamics of information on Twitter, focusing on the persistence of information. We compare two extreme temporal patterns in the decay rate of URLs embedded in tweets, defining a prediction task to distinguish between URLs that fade rapidly following their peak of popularity and those that fade more slowly. Our experiments show a strong association between the content and the temporal dynamics of information: given unigram features extracted from corresponding HTML webpages, a linear SVM classifier can predict the temporal pattern of URLs with high accuracy. We further explore the content of URLs in the two temporal classes using various textual analysis techniques (via LIWC and trend detection). We find that the rapidly-fading information contains significantly more words related to negative emotion, actions, and more complicated cognitive processes, whereas the persistent information contains more words related to positive emotion, leisure, and lifestyle. The evolution of social media popularity exhibits rich temporality, i.e., popularities change over time at various levels of temporal granularity. This is influenced by temporal variations of public attentions or user activities. For example, popularity patterns of street snap on Flickr are observed to depict distinctive fashion styles at specific time scales, such as season-based periodic fluctuations for Trench Coat or one-off peak in days for Evening Dress. However, this fact is often overlooked by existing research of popularity modeling. We present the first study to incorporate multiple time-scale dynamics into predicting online popularity. We propose a novel computational framework in the paper, named Multi-scale Temporalization, for estimating popularity based on multi-scale decomposition and structural reconstruction in a tensor space of user, post, and time by joint low-rank constraints. By considering the noise caused by context inconsistency, we design a data rearrangement step based on context aggregation as preprocessing to enhance contextual relevance of neighboring data in the tensor space. As a result, our approach can leverage multiple levels of temporal characteristics and reduce the noise of data decomposition to improve modeling effectiveness. We evaluate our approach on two large-scale Flickr image datasets with over 1.8 million photos in total, for the task of popularity prediction. The results show that our approach significantly outperforms state-of-the-art popularity prediction techniques, with a relative improvement of 10.9 -47.5 in terms of prediction accuracy.