Complex networks are nowadays employed in several applications. Modeling urban street networks is one of them, and in particular to analyze criminal aspects of a city. Several research groups have focused on such application, but until now, there is a lack of a well-defined methodology for employing complex networks in a whole crime analysis process, i.e. from data preparation to a deep analysis of criminal communities. Furthermore, the “toolset” available for those works is not complete enough, also lacking techniques to maintain up-to-date, complete crime datasets and proper assessment measures. In this sense, we propose a threefold methodology for employing complex networks in the detection of highly criminal areas within a city. Our methodology comprises three tasks: (i) Mapping of Urban Crimes; (ii) Criminal Community Identification; and (iii) Crime Analysis. Moreover, it provides a proper set of assessment measures for analyzing intrinsic criminality of communities, especially when considering different crime types. We show our methodology by applying it to a real crime dataset from the city of San Francisco—CA, USA. The results confirm its effectiveness to identify and analyze high criminality areas within a city. Hence, our contributions provide a basis for further developments on complex networks applied to crime analysis.
Shinode and Shinode @cite_13 aim at introducing a search-window method to analyze urban crimes in street networks. They represent a search window as a subarea that concentrates a high number of crimes in small regions; besides that, the crimes are used to identify clusters spatially and temporally. The authors validate their methods through an empirical case study. However, their criminal data derive from 911-calls made in 1996; that is, they used a dataset that carries few details and that is outdated, especially when one considers the conclusions claimed by the authors. Such information implies a superficial analysis of the crime behavior and the ways to prevent it.
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This study proposes a street-level space‐time hotspot detection method to analyse crime incidents recorded at the street-address level and provides description of the micro-level variation of crime incidents over space and time. It expands the notion of search-window techniques widely used in crime science by developing a method that can account for the spatial‐temporal distribution of crime incidents measured in network distance. The study first describes the methodological framework by presenting the concept of a new type of search window and how it is used in the process of statistical testing for detecting crime hotspots. This is followed by analyses using 1 a simulated distribution of points along the street network, and 2 a set of real street-crime incident data. The simulation study demonstrates that the proposed method is effective in identifying space‐time hotspots, which include those that are not detected by a non-temporal method. The empirical analysis of the drug markets and assaults in downtown Buffalo, New York, revealed a detailed space‐time signature of each type of crime, highlighting the recurrent nature of drug dealing at specific locations as well as the sporadic tendency of assault incidents. Motivated by empirical observations of spatio-temporal clusters of crime across a wide variety of urban settings, we present a model to study the emergence, dynamics, and steady-state properties of crime hotspots. We focus on a two-dimensional lattice model for residential burglary, where each site is characterized by a dynamic attractiveness variable, and where each criminal is represented as a random walker. The dynamics of criminals and of the attractiveness field are coupled to each other via specific biasing and feedback mechanisms. Depending on parameter choices, we observe and describe several regimes of aggregation, including hotspots of high criminal activity. On the basis of the discrete system, we also derive a continuum model; the two are in good quantitative agreement for large system sizes. By means of a linear stability analysis we are able to determine the parameter values that will lead to the creation of stable hotspots. We discuss our model and results in the context of established crim... Crime is classically âunpredictableâ. It is not necessarily random, but neither does it take place consistently in space or time. A better theoretical understanding is needed to facilitate practical crime prevention solutions that correspond to specific places and times. In this study, we discuss the preliminary results of a crime forecasting model developed in collaboration with the police department of a United States city in the Northeast. We first discuss our approach to architecting datasets from original crime records. The datasets contain aggregated counts of crime and crime-related events categorized by the police department. The location and time of these events is embedded in the data. Additional spatial and temporal features are harvested from the raw data set. Second, an ensemble of data mining classification techniques is employed to perform the crime forecasting. We analyze a variety of classification methods to determine which is best for predicting crime âhotspotsâ. We also investigate classification on increase or emergence. Last, we propose the best forecasting approach to achieve the most stable outcomes. The result of our research is a model that takes advantage of implicit and explicit spatial and temporal data to make reliable crime predictions. It is undoubtedly cliche to say that we are in the Age of Big Data Analytics or Data Science; every computing and IT publication you find talks about Big Data and companies no longer are interested in software engineers and analysts but instead they are looking for Data Scientists! In spite of the excessive use of the term, the truth of the matter is that data has never been more available and the increase in computation power allows for more sophisticated tools to identify patterns in the data and on the networks that governs these systems (complex networks). Crime is not different, the open data phenomena has spread to thousand of cities in the world, which are making data about crime activity available for any citizen to look at. Furthermore, new criminology studies argue that criminals typically commit crimes in areas in which they are familiar, usually close to home. Using this information we propose a new model based on networks to build links between crimes in close physical proximity. We show that the structure of the criminal activity can be partially represented by this spatial network of sites. In this paper we describe this process and the analysis of the networks we have constructed to find patterns in the underlying structure of criminal activity. Advancements in mobile technology and computing have fostered the collection of a large number of civic datasets that capture the pulse of urban life. Furthermore, the open government and data initiative has led many local authorities to make these datasets publicly available, hoping to drive innovation that will further improve the quality of life for the city-dwellers. In this paper, we develop a novel application that utilizes crime data to provide safe urban navigation. Specifically, using crime data from Chicago and Philadelphia we develop a risk model for their street urban network, which allows us to estimate the relative probability of a crime on any road segment. Given such model we define two variants of the SafePaths problem where the goal is to find a short and low-risk path between a source and a destination location. Since both the length and the risk of the path are equally important but cannot be combined into a single objective, we approach the urban-navigation problem as a biobjective shortest path problem. Our algorithms aim to output a small set of paths that provide tradeoffs between distance and safety. Our experiments demonstrate the efficacy of our algorithms and their practical applicability. Abstract This paper investigates the effect of economic conditions (carrots) and sanctions (sticks) on murder, assault, robbery, burglary, motor vehicle theft, grand larceny, and rape in New York City, using monthly time‐series data spanning 1974–99. Carrots are measured by the unemployment rate and the real minimum wage; sticks are measured by the number of felony arrests, size of the police force, and number of New York City residents in prison. In addition, the paper tests the validity of the “broken windows” hypothesis. Consistent with its implementation by the New York Police Department, we use misdemeanor arrests as a measure of broken‐windows policing. The broken‐windows hypothesis has validity in the case of robbery, motor vehicle theft, and grand larceny. While both economic and deterrence variables are important in explaining the decline in crime, the contribution of deterrence measures is larger than those of economic variables. We address the problem of attribute-based people search in real surveillance environments. The system we developed is capable of answering user queries such as "show me all people with a beard and sunglasses, wearing a white hat and a patterned blue shirt, from all metro cameras in the downtown area, from 2pm to 4pm last Saturday". In this paper, we describe the lessons we learned from practical deployments of our system, and how we made our algorithms achieve the accuracy and efficiency required by many police departments around the world. In particular, we show that a novel set of multimodal integral filters and proper normalization of attribute scores are critical to obtain good performance. We conduct a comprehensive experimental analysis on video footage captured from a large set of surveillance cameras monitoring metro chokepoints, in both crowded and normal activity periods. Moreover, we show impressive results using images from the recent Boston marathon bombing event, where our system can rapidly retrieve the two suspects based on their attributes from a database containing more than one thousand people present at the event. Objectives. We modeled the spatiotemporal movement of hotspot clusters of homicide by motive in Newark, New Jersey, to investigate whether different homicide types have different patterns of clustering and movement.Methods. We obtained homicide data from the Newark Police Department Homicide Unit’s investigative files from 1997 through 2007 (n = 560). We geocoded the address at which each homicide victim was found and recorded the date of and the motive for the homicide. We used cluster detection software to model the spatiotemporal movement of statistically significant homicide clusters by motive, using census tract and month of occurrence as the spatial and temporal units of analysis.Results. Gang-motivated homicides showed evidence of clustering and diffusion through Newark. Additionally, gang-motivated homicide clusters overlapped to a degree with revenge and drug-motivated homicide clusters. Escalating dispute and nonintimate familial homicides clustered; however, there was no evidence of diffusion. ... Abstract Street profile analysis is a new method for analyzing temporal and spatial crime patterns along major roadways in metropolitan areas. This crime mapping technique allows for the identification of crime patterns along these street segments. These are linear spaces where aggregate crime patterns merge with crime attractors generators and human movement to demonstrate how directionality is embedded in city infrastructures. Visually presenting the interplay between these criminological concepts and land use can improve police crime management strategies. This research presents how this crime mapping technique can be applied to a major roadway in Burnaby, Canada. This technique is contrasted with other crime mapping methods to demonstrate the utility of this approach when analyzing the rate and velocity of crime patterns overtime and in space. Street scene understanding is an essential task for autonomous driving. One important step toward this direction is scene labeling, which annotates each pixel in the images with a correct class label. Although many approaches have been developed, there are still some weak points. First, many methods are based on the hand-crafted features whose image representation ability is limited. Second, they cannot label foreground objects accurately due to the data set bias. Third, in the refinement stage, the traditional Markov random filed inference is prone to over smoothness. For improving the above problems, this paper proposes a joint method of priori convolutional neural networks at superpixel level (called as “priori s-CNNs”) and soft restricted context transfer. Our contributions are threefold: 1) a priori s-CNNs model that learns priori location information at superpixel level is proposed to describe various objects discriminatingly; 2) a hierarchical data augmentation method is presented to alleviate data set bias in the priori s-CNNs training stage, which improves foreground objects labeling significantly; and 3) a soft restricted MRF energy function is defined to improve the priori s-CNNs model’s labeling performance and reduce the over smoothness at the same time. The proposed approach is verified on CamVid data set (11 classes) and SIFT Flow Street data set (16 classes) and achieves a competitive performance. We present a method for automatically identifying and validating predictive relationships between the visual appearance of a city and its non-visual attributes (e.g. crime statistics, housing prices, population density etc.). Given a set of street-level images and (location, city-attribute-value) pairs of measurements, we first identify visual elements in the images that are discriminative of the attribute. We then train a predictor by learning a set of weights over these elements using non-linear Support Vector Regression. To perform these operations efficiently, we implement a scalable distributed processing framework that speeds up the main computational bottleneck (extracting visual elements) by an order of magnitude. This speedup allows us to investigate a variety of city attributes across 6 different American cities. We find that indeed there is a predictive relationship between visual elements and a number of city attributes including violent crime rates, theft rates, housing prices, population density, tree presence, graffiti presence, and the perception of danger. We also test human performance for predicting theft based on street-level images and show that our predictor outperforms this baseline with 33 higher accuracy on average. Finally, we present three prototype applications that use our system to (1) define the visual boundary of city neighborhoods, (2) generate walking directions that avoid or seek out exposure to city attributes, and (3) validate user-specified visual elements for prediction. Pervasive infrastructures, such as cell phone networks, enable to capture large amounts of human behavioral data but also provide information about the structure of cities and their dynamical properties. In this article, we focus on these last aspects by studying phone data recorded during 55 days in 31 Spanish cities. We first define an urban dilatation index which measures how the average distance between individuals evolves during the day, allowing us to highlight different types of city structure. We then focus on hotspots, the most crowded places in the city. We propose a parameter free method to detect them and to test the robustness of our results. The number of these hotspots scales sublinearly with the population size, a result in agreement with previous theoretical arguments and measures on employment datasets. We study the lifetime of these hotspots and show in particular that the hierarchy of permanent ones, which constitute the ‘heart' of the city, is very stable whatever the size of the city. The spatial structure of these hotspots is also of interest and allows us to distinguish different categories of cities, from monocentric and “segregated” where the spatial distribution is very dependent on land use, to polycentric where the spatial mixing between land uses is much more important. These results point towards the possibility of a new, quantitative classification of cities using high resolution spatio-temporal data. The advent of location-based social networking sites provides an open sharing space of crowd-sourced lifelogs that can be regarded as a novel source to monitor massive crowds' lifestyles in the real world. In this paper, we challenge to analyze urban characteristics in terms of crowd behavior by utilizing the crowd lifelogs in urban area. In order to collect crowd behavioral data, we utilize Twitter where enormous numbers of geo-tagged crowd's micro lifelogs can be easily acquired. We model the crowd behavior on the social network sites as a feature, which will be used to derive crowd-based urban characteristics. Based on this crowd behavior feature, we analyze significant crowd behavioral patterns for extracting urban characteristics. In the experiment, we actually conduct the urban characterization over the crowd behavioral patterns using a large number of geo-tagged tweets found in Japan from Twitter and report a comparison result with map-based observation of cities as an evaluation. Nowadays, human movement in urban spaces can be traced digitally in many cases. It can be observed that movement patterns are not constant, but vary across time and space. In this work, we characterize such spatio-temporal patterns with an innovative combination of two separate approaches that have been utilized for studying human mobility in the past. First, by using non-negative tensor factorization (NTF), we are able to cluster human behavior based on spatio-temporal dimensions. Second, for characterizing these clusters, we propose to use HypTrails, a Bayesian approach for expressing and comparing hypotheses about human trails. To formalize hypotheses, we utilize publicly available Web data (i.e., Foursquare and census data). By studying taxi data in Manhattan, we can discover and characterize human mobility patterns that cannot be identified in a collective analysis. As one example, we find a group of taxi rides that end at locations with a high number of party venues on weekend nights. Our findings argue for a more fine-grained analysis of human mobility in order to make informed decisions for e.g., enhancing urban structures, tailored traffic control and location-based recommender systems. Detecting local events (e.g., protest, disaster) at their onsets is an important task for a wide spectrum of applications, ranging from disaster control to crime monitoring and place recommendation. Recent years have witnessed growing interest in leveraging geo-tagged tweet streams for online local event detection. Nevertheless, the accuracies of existing methods still remain unsatisfactory for building reliable local event detection systems. We propose TrioVecEvent, a method that leverages multimodal embeddings to achieve accurate online local event detection. The effectiveness of TrioVecEvent is underpinned by its two-step detection scheme. First, it ensures a high coverage of the underlying local events by dividing the tweets in the query window into coherent geo-topic clusters. To generate quality geo-topic clusters, we capture short-text semantics by learning multimodal embeddings of the location, time, and text, and then perform online clustering with a novel Bayesian mixture model. Second, TrioVecEvent considers the geo-topic clusters as candidate events and extracts a set of features for classifying the candidates. Leveraging the multimodal embeddings as background knowledge, we introduce discriminative features that can well characterize local events, which enables pinpointing true local events from the candidate pool with a small amount of training data. We have used crowdsourcing to evaluate TrioVecEvent, and found that it improves the performance of the state-of-the-art method by a large margin. Abstract Purpose — In this chapter, we will review several alternative methods of collecting data from mobile phones for human mobility analysis. We propose considering cellular network location data as a useful complementary source for human mobility research and provide case studies to illustrate the advantages and disadvantages of each method. Methodology approach — We briefly describe cellular phone network architecture and the location data it can provide, and discuss two types of data collection: active and passive localization. Active localization is something like a personal travel diary. It provides a tool for recording positioning data on a survey sample over a long period of time. Passive localization, on the other hand, is based on phone network data that are automatically recorded for technical or billing purposes. It offers the advantage of access to very large user populations for mobility flow analysis of a broad area. Findings — We review several alternative methods of collecting data from mobile phone for human mobility analysis to show that cellular network data, although limited in terms of location precision and recording frequency, offer two major advantages for studying human mobility. First, very large user samples – covering broad geographical areas – can be followed over a long period of time. Second, this type of data allows researchers to choose a specific data collection methodology (active or passive), depending on the objectives of their study. The big mobile phone localization datasets have provided a new impulse for the interdisciplinary research in human mobility. Originality value of chapter — We propose considering cellular network location data as a useful complementary source for transportation research and provide case studies to illustrate the advantages and disadvantages of each proposed method. Mobile phones have become a kind of “personal sensor” offering an ever-increasing amount of location data on mobile phone users over long time periods. These data can thus provide a framework for a comprehensive and longitudinal study of temporal dynamics, and can be used to capture ephemeral events and fluctuations in day-to-day mobility behavior offering powerful tools to transportation research, urban planning, or even real-time city monitoring. People spend most of their time at a few key locations, such as home and work. Being able to identify how the movements of people cluster around these "important places" is crucial for a range of technology and policy decisions in areas such as telecommunications and transportation infrastructure deployment. In this paper, we propose new techniques based on clustering and regression for analyzing anonymized cellular network data to identify generally important locations, and to discern semantically meaningful locations such as home and work. Starting with temporally sparse and spatially coarse location information, we propose a new algorithm to identify important locations. We test this algorithm on arbitrary cellphone users, including those with low call rates, and find that we are within 3 miles of ground truth for 88 of volunteer users. Further, after locating home and work, we achieve commute distance estimates that are within 1 mile of equivalent estimates derived from government census data. Finally, we perform carbon footprint analyses on hundreds of thousands of anonymous users as an example of how our data and algorithms can form an accurate and efficient underpinning for policy and infrastructure studies. Prior work on criminal incident prediction has relied primarily on the historical crime record and various geospatial and demographic information sources. Although promising, these models do not take into account the rich and rapidly expanding social media context that surrounds incidents of interest. This paper presents a preliminary investigation of Twitter-based criminal incident prediction. Our approach is based on the automatic semantic analysis and understanding of natural language Twitter posts, combined with dimensionality reduction via latent Dirichlet allocation and prediction via linear modeling. We tested our model on the task of predicting future hit-and-run crimes. Evaluation results indicate that the model comfortably outperforms a baseline model that predicts hit-and-run incidents uniformly across all days. In this work, we discover the daily location-driven routines that are contained in a massive real-life human dataset collected by mobile phones. Our goal is the discovery and analysis of human routines that characterize both individual and group behaviors in terms of location patterns. We develop an unsupervised methodology based on two differing probabilistic topic models and apply them to the daily life of 97 mobile phone users over a 16-month period to achieve these goals. Topic models are probabilistic generative models for documents that identify the latent structure that underlies a set of words. Routines dominating the entire group's activities, identified with a methodology based on the Latent Dirichlet Allocation topic model, include “going to work late”, “going home early”, “working nonstop” and “having no reception (phone off)” at different times over varying time-intervals. We also detect routines which are characteristic of users, with a methodology based on the Author-Topic model. With the routines discovered, and the two methods of characterizing days and users, we can then perform various tasks. We use the routines discovered to determine behavioral patterns of users and groups of users. For example, we can find individuals that display specific daily routines, such as “going to work early” or “turning off the mobile (or having no reception) in the evenings”. We are also able to characterize daily patterns by determining the topic structure of days in addition to determining whether certain routines occur dominantly on weekends or weekdays. Furthermore, the routines discovered can be used to rank users or find subgroups of users who display certain routines. We can also characterize users based on their entropy. We compare our method to one based on clustering using K-means. Finally, we analyze an individual's routines over time to determine regions with high variations, which may correspond to specific events. Several attempts have already been made to use telecommunications networks for urban research, but the datasets employed have typically been neither dynamic nor fine grained. Against this research backdrop the mobile phone network offers a compelling compromise between these extremes: it is both highly mobile and yet still localisable in space. Moreover, the mobile phone’s enormous and enthusiastic adoption across most socioeconomic strata makes it a uniquely useful tool for conducting large-scale, representative behavioural research. In this paper we attempt to connect telecoms usage data from Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM) to a geography of human activity derived from data on commercial premises advertised through Pagine Gialle, the Italian ‘Yellow Pages’. We then employ eigendecomposition—a process similar to factoring but suitable for this complex dataset—to identify and extract recurring patterns of mobile phone usage. The resulting eigenplaces support the computational and comparative analysis of space through the lens of telecommuniations usage and enhance our understanding of the city as a ‘space of flows’.