In this paper, computational aspects of the panel aggregation problem are addressed. Motivated primarily by applications of risk assessment, an algorithm is developed for aggregating large corpora of internally incoherent probability assessments. The algorithm is characterized by a provable performance guarantee, and is demonstrated to be orders of magnitude faster than existing tools when tested on several real-world data-sets. In addition, unexpected connections between research in risk assessment and wireless sensor networks are exposed, as several key ideas are illustrated to be useful in both fields.
A panel-aggregation problem is addressed in the online" learning model, which is frequently studied in learning theory @cite_16 @cite_17 . In that setting, a panel of experts predicts the true outcome of a set of events. A central agent constructs its own forecast by fusing the experts' predictions, and upon learning the truth, suffers a loss sometimes specified by a quadratic penalty function. In repeated trials, the agent updates its fusion rule (e.g., the weights" in a weighted average), taking into account the performance of each expert. Under minimal assumptions on the evolution of these trials, bounds are derived that compare the trial-averaged performance of the central agent with that of the best (weighted combination of) expert(s). In contrast to the current framework, the online model typically assumes that each expert provides a forecast for the same event or partition of events. Thus, fusion strategies such as weighted averaging are appropriate in the online model, for the same reasons discussed above. Also, observe that the present model concerns a single trial", not many.
@cite_16 @cite_17
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Mixtures of Experts combine the outputs of several “expert” networks, each of which specializes in a different part of the input space. This is achieved by training a “gating” network that maps each input to a distribution over the experts. Such models show promise for building larger networks that are still cheap to compute at test time, and more parallelizable at training time. In this this work, we extend the Mixture of Experts to a stacked model, the Deep Mixture of Experts, with multiple sets of gating and experts. This exponentially increases the number of effective experts by associating each input with a combination of experts at each layer, yet maintains a modest model size. On a randomly translated version of the MNIST dataset, we find that the Deep Mixture of Experts automatically learns to develop location-dependent (“where”) experts at the first layer, and class-specific (“what”) experts at the second layer. In addition, we see that the different combinations are in use when the model is applied to a dataset of speech monophones. These demonstrate effective use of all expert combinations. We consider algorithms for combining advice from a set of experts. In each trial, the algorithm receives the predictions of the experts and produces its own prediction. A loss function is applied to measure the discrepancy between the predictions and actual observations. The algorithm keeps a weight for each expert. At each trial the weights are first used to help produce the prediction and then updated according to the observed outcome. Our starting point is Vovk's Aggregating Algorithm, in which the weights have a simple form: the weight of an expert decreases exponentially as a function of the loss incurred by the expert. The prediction of the Aggregating Algorithm is typically a non-linear function of the weights and the experts' predictions. We analyze here a simplified algorithm in which the weights are as in the original Aggregating Algorithm, but the prediction is simply the weighted average of the experts' predictions. We show that for a large class of loss functions, even with the simplified prediction rule the additional loss of the algorithm over the loss of the best expert is at most c ln n, where n is the number of experts and c a constant that depends on the loss function. Thus, the bound is of the same form as the known bounds for the Aggregating Algorithm, although the constants here are not quite as good. We use relative entropy to rewrite the bounds in a stronger form and to motivate the update. We present distributed algorithms that can be used by multiple agents to align their estimates with a particular value over a network with time-varying connectivity. Our framework is general in that this value can represent a consensus value among multiple agents or an optimal solution of an optimization problem, where the global objective function is a combination of local agent objective functions. Our main focus is on constrained problems where the estimates of each agent are restricted to lie in different convex sets. To highlight the effects of constraints, we first consider a constrained consensus problem and present a distributed "projected consensus algorithm" in which agents combine their local averaging operation with projection on their individual constraint sets. This algorithm can be viewed as a version of an alternating projection method with weights that are varying over time and across agents. We establish convergence and convergence rate results for the projected consensus algorithm. We next study a constrained optimization problem for optimizing the sum of local objective functions of the agents subject to the intersection of their local constraint sets. We present a distributed "projected subgradient algorithm" which involves each agent performing a local averaging operation, taking a subgradient step to minimize its own objective function, and projecting on its constraint set. We show that, with an appropriately selected stepsize rule, the agent estimates generated by this algorithm converge to the same optimal solution for the cases when the weights are constant and equal, and when the weights are time-varying but all agents have the same constraint set. Statistical aggregation is often used to combine multiple opinions within a group. Such aggregates outperform individuals, including experts, in various prediction and estimation tasks. This result is attributed to the “wisdom of crowds.” We seek to improve the quality of such aggregates by eliminating poorly performing individuals from the crowd. We propose a new measure of contribution to assess the judges' performance relative to the group and use positive contributors to build a weighting model for aggregating forecasts. In Study 1, we analyze 1,233 judges forecasting almost 200 current events to illustrate the superiority of our model over unweighted models and models weighted by measures of absolute performance. In Study 2, we replicate our findings by using economic forecasts from the European Central Bank and show how the method can be used to identify smaller crowds of the top positive contributors. We show that the model derives its power from identifying experts who consistently outperform the crowd. Data, as supplemental material, are available at http: dx.doi.org 10.1287 mnsc.2014.1909 . This paper was accepted by James Smith, decision analysis. In this paper, a novel algorithm to blindly separate an instantaneous linear underdetermined mixture of nonstationary sources is proposed. It means that the number of sources exceeds the number of channels of the available data. The separation is based on the working assumption that the sources are piecewise stationary with a different variance in each block. It proceeds in two steps: 1) estimating the mixing matrix, and 2) computing the optimum beamformer in each block to maximize the signal-to-interference ratio of each separated signal with respect to the remaining signals. Estimating the mixing matrix is accomplished through a specialized tensor decomposition of the set of sample covariance matrices of the received mixture in each block. It utilizes optimum weighting, which allows statistically efficient (CRB attaining) estimation provided that the data obey the assumed Gaussian piecewise stationary model. In simulations, performance of the algorithm is successfully tested on blind separation of 16 speech signals from nine linear instantaneous mixtures of these signals. Recommender problems with large and dynamic item pools are ubiquitous in web applications like content optimization, online advertising and web search. Despite the availability of rich item meta-data, excess heterogeneity at the item level often requires inclusion of item-specific "factors" (or weights) in the model. However, since estimating item factors is computationally intensive, it poses a challenge for time-sensitive recommender problems where it is important to rapidly learn factors for new items (e.g., news articles, event updates, tweets) in an online fashion. In this paper, we propose a novel method called FOBFM (Fast Online Bilinear Factor Model) to learn item-specific factors quickly through online regression. The online regression for each item can be performed independently and hence the procedure is fast, scalable and easily parallelizable. However, the convergence of these independent regressions can be slow due to high dimensionality. The central idea of our approach is to use a large amount of historical data to initialize the online models based on offline features and learn linear projections that can effectively reduce the dimensionality. We estimate the rank of our linear projections by taking recourse to online model selection based on optimizing predictive likelihood. Through extensive experiments, we show that our method significantly and uniformly outperforms other competitive methods and obtains relative lifts that are in the range of 10-15 in terms of predictive log-likelihood, 200-300 for a rank correlation metric on a proprietary My Yahoo! dataset; it obtains 9 reduction in root mean squared error over the previously best method on a benchmark MovieLens dataset using a time-based train test data split. Previous research has shown that averaging ensemble can scale up learning over very large cost-sensitive datasets with linear speedup independent of the learning algorithms. At the same time, it achieves the same or even better accuracy than a single model computed from the entire dataset. However, one major drawback is its inefficiency in prediction since every base model in the ensemble has to be consulted in order to produce a final prediction. In this paper, we propose several approaches to reduce the number of base classifiers. Among various methods explored, our empirical studies have shown that the benefit-based greedy approach can safely remove more than 90 of the base models while maintaining or even exceeding the prediction accuracy of the original ensemble. Assuming that each base classifier consumes one unit of prediction time, the removal of 90 of base classifiers translates to a prediction speedup of 10 times. On top of pruning, we propose a novel dynamic scheduling approach to further reduce the "expected" number of classifiers employed in prediction. It measures the confidence of a prediction by a subset of classifiers in the pruned ensemble. This confidence is used to decide if more classifiers are needed in order to produce a prediction that is the same as the original unpruned ensemble. This approach reduces the "expected" number of classifiers by another 25 to 75 without loss of accuracy. We propose a hybrid model for automatically acquiring a policy for a complex game, which combines online learning with mining knowledge from a corpus of human game play. Our hypothesis is that a player that learns its policies by combining (online) exploration with biases towards human behaviour that's attested in a corpus of humans playing the game will outperform any agent that uses only one of the knowledge sources. During game play, the agent extracts similar moves made by players in the corpus in similar situations, and approximates their utility alongside other possible options by performing simulations from its current state. We implement and assess our model in an agent playing the complex win-lose board game Settlers of Catan, which lacks an implementation that would challenge a human expert. The results from the preliminary set of experiments illustrate the potential of such a joint model. We consider the problem of learning a structured multi-task regression, where the output consists of multiple responses that are related by a graph and the correlated response variables are dependent on the common inputs in a sparse but synergistic manner. Previous methods such as l1 l2-regularized multi-task regression assume that all of the output variables are equally related to the inputs, although in many real-world problems, outputs are related in a complex manner. In this paper, we propose graph-guided fused lasso (GFlasso) for structured multi-task regression that exploits the graph structure over the output variables. We introduce a novel penalty function based on fusion penalty to encourage highly correlated outputs to share a common set of relevant inputs. In addition, we propose a simple yet efficient proximal-gradient method for optimizing GFlasso that can also be applied to any optimization problems with a convex smooth loss and the general class of fusion penalty defined on arbitrary graph structures. By exploiting the structure of the non-smooth ''fusion penalty'', our method achieves a faster convergence rate than the standard first-order method, sub-gradient method, and is significantly more scalable than the widely adopted second-order cone-programming and quadratic-programming formulations. In addition, we provide an analysis of the consistency property of the GFlasso model. Experimental results not only demonstrate the superiority of GFlasso over the standard lasso but also show the efficiency and scalability of our proximal-gradient method. This paper begins by presenting a simple model of the way in which experts estimate probabilities. The model is then used to construct a likelihood-based aggregation formula for combining multiple probability forecasts. The resulting aggregator has a simple analytical form that depends on a single, easily-interpretable parameter. This makes it computationally simple, attractive for further development, and robust against overfitting. Based on a large-scale dataset in which over 1300 experts tried to predict 69 geopolitical events, our aggregator is found to be superior to several widely-used aggregation algorithms. Motivated by sensor networks and other distributed settings, several models for distributed learning are presented. The models differ from classical works in statistical pattern recognition by allocating observations of an independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) sampling process among members of a network of simple learning agents. The agents are limited in their ability to communicate to a central fusion center and thus, the amount of information available for use in classification or regression is constrained. For several basic communication models in both the binary classification and regression frameworks, we question the existence of agent decision rules and fusion rules that result in a universally consistent ensemble; the answers to this question present new issues to consider with regard to universal consistency. This paper addresses the issue of whether or not the guarantees provided by Stone's theorem in centralized environments hold in distributed settings. We study resource-limited online learning, motivated by the problem of conditional-branch outcome prediction in computer architecture. In particular, we consider (parallel) time and space-efficient ensemble learners for online settings, empirically demonstrating benefits similar to those shown previously for offline ensembles. Our learning algorithms are inspired by the previously published “boosting by filtering” framework as well as the offline Arc-x4 boosting-style algorithm. We train ensembles of online decision trees using a novel variant of the ID4 online decision-tree algorithm as the base learner, and show empirical results for both boosting and bagging-style online ensemble methods. Our results evaluate these methods on both our branch prediction domain and online variants of three familiar machine-learning benchmarks. Our data justifies three key claims. First, we show empirically that our extensions to ID4 significantly improve performance for single trees and additionally are critical to achieving performance gains in tree ensembles. Second, our results indicate significant improvements in predictive accuracy with ensemble size for the boosting-style algorithm. The bagging algorithms we tried showed poor performance relative to the boosting-style algorithm (but still improve upon individual base learners). Third, we show that ensembles of small trees are often able to outperform large single trees with the same number of nodes (and similarly outperform smaller ensembles of larger trees that use the same total number of nodes). This makes online boosting particularly useful in domains such as branch prediction with tight space restrictions (i.e., the available real-estate on a microprocessor chip). We study the problem of eliciting and aggregating probabilistic information from multiple agents. In order to successfully aggregate the predictions of agents, the principal needs to elicit some notion of confidence from agents, capturing how much experience or knowledge led to their predictions. To formalize this, we consider a principal who wishes to elicit predictions about a random variable from a group of Bayesian agents, each of whom have privately observed some independent samples of the random variable, and hopes to aggregate the predictions as if she had directly observed the samples of all agents. Leveraging techniques from Bayesian statistics, we represent confidence as the number of samples an agent has observed, which is quantified by a hyperparameter from a conjugate family of prior distributions. This then allows us to show that if the principal has access to a few samples, she can achieve her aggregation goal by eliciting predictions from agents using proper scoring rules. In particular, if she has access to one sample, she can successfully aggregate the agents' predictions if and only if every posterior predictive distribution corresponds to a unique value of the hyperparameter. Furthermore, this uniqueness holds for many common distributions of interest. When this uniqueness property does not hold, we construct a novel and intuitive mechanism where a principal with two samples can elicit and optimally aggregate the agents' predictions. In this paper we define a research agenda to develop a general framework supporting online autonomous tuning of data partitioning and layouts with a reinforcement learning formulation. We establish the core elements of our approach: agent, environment, action space and supporting components. Externally predicted workloads and the current physical design serve as input to our agent. The environment guides the search process by generating immediate rewards based on fresh cost estimates, for either the entirety or a sample of queries from the workload, and by deciding the possible actions given a state. This set of actions is configurable, enabling the representation of different partitioning problems. For use in an online setting the agent learns a fixed-length sequence of n actions that maximize the temporal reward for the predicted workload. Through an initial implementation we assert the feasibility of our approach. To conclude, we list open challenges for this work. Distributed averaging describes a class of network algorithms for the decentralized computation of aggregate statistics. Initially, each node has a scalar data value, and the goal is to compute the average of these values at every node (the so-called average consensus problem). Nodes iteratively exchange information with their neighbors and perform local updates until the value at every node converges to the initial network average. Much previous work has focused on algorithms where each node maintains and updates a single value; every time an update is performed, the previous value is forgotten. Convergence to the average consensus is achieved asymptotically. The convergence rate is fundamentally limited by network connectivity, and it can be prohibitively slow on topologies such as grids and random geometric graphs, even if the update rules are optimized. In this paper, we provide the first theoretical demonstration that adding a local prediction component to the update rule can significantly improve the convergence rate of distributed averaging algorithms. We focus on the case where the local predictor is a linear combination of the node's current and previous values (i.e., two memory taps), and our update rule computes a combination of the predictor and the usual weighted linear combination of values received from neighboring nodes. We derive the optimal mixing parameter for combining the predictor with the neighbors' values, and conduct a theoretical analysis of the improvement in convergence rate that can be achieved using this acceleration methodology. For a chain topology on N nodes, this leads to a factor of N improvement over standard consensus, and for a two-dimensional grid, our approach achieves a factor of ?N improvement. We provide a model to investigate the tension between information aggregation and spread of misinformation. Individuals meet pairwise and exchange information, which is modeled as both individuals adopting the average of their pre-meeting beliefs. "Forceful" agents influence the beliefs of (some of) the other individuals they meet, but do not change their own opinions. We characterize how the presence of forceful agents interferes with information aggregation. Under the assumption that even forceful agents obtain some information from others, we first show that all beliefs converge to a stochastic consensus. Our main results quantify the extent of misinformation by providing bounds or exact results on the gap between the consensus value and the benchmark without forceful agents (where there is efficient information aggregation). The worst outcomes obtain when there are several forceful agents who update their beliefs only on the basis of information from individuals that have been influenced by them. This article reviews statistical techniques for combining multiple probability distributions. The framework is that of a decision maker who consults several experts regarding some events. The experts express their opinions in the form of probability distributions. The decision maker must aggregate the experts' distributions into a single distribution that can be used for decision making. Two classes of aggregation methods are reviewed. When using a supra Bayesian procedure, the decision maker treats the expert opinions as data that may be combined with its own prior distribution via Bayes' rule. When using a linear opinion pool, the decision maker forms a linear combination of the expert opinions. The major feature that makes the aggregation of expert opinions difficult is the high correlation or dependence that typically occurs among these opinions. A theme of this paper is the need for training procedures that result in experts with relatively independent opinions or for aggregation methods that implici... We study a generic framework that provides a unified view on two important classes of problems: (i) extensions of the k-median problem where clients are interested in having multiple facilities in their vicinity (e.g., due to the fact that, with some small probability, the closest facility might be malfunctioning and so might not be available for using), and (ii) finding winners according to some appealing multiwinner election rules, i.e., election system aimed for choosing representatives bodies, such as parliaments, based on preferences of a population of voters over individual candidates. Each problem in our framework is associated with a vector of weights: we show that the approximability of the problem depends on structural properties of these vectors. We specifically focus on the harmonic sequence of weights for which the objective function interpreted in a multiwinner election setup reflects to the well-known Proportional Approval Voting (PAV) rule. Our main result is that, due to the specific (harmonic) structure of weights, the problem allows constant factor approximation. This is surprising since the problem can be interpreted as a variant of the k-median problem where we do not assume that the connection costs satisfy the triangle inequality. The algorithm we propose is based on dependent rounding [Srinivasan, FOCS'01] applied to the solution of a natural LP-relaxation of the problem. The rounding process is well known to produce distributions over integral solutions satisfying Negative Correlation (NC), which is usually sufficient for the analysis of approximation guarantees offered by rounding procedures. In our analysis, however, we need to use the fact that the carefully implemented rounding process satisfies a stronger property, called Negative Association (NA), which allows us to apply standard concentration bounds for conditional random variables. Networks form an indispensable part of our lives. In particular, computer networks have ranked amongst the most influential networks in recent times. In such an ever-evolving and fast growing network, the primary concern is to understand and analyse different aspects of the network behaviour, such as the quality of service and efficient information propagation. It is also desirable to predict the behaviour of a large computer network if, for example, one of the computers is infected by a virus. In all of the aforementioned cases, we need protocols that are able to make local decisions and handle the dynamic changes in the network topology. Here, randomised algorithms are preferred because many deterministic algorithms often require a central control. In this thesis, we investigate three network-based randomised algorithms, threshold load balancing with weighted tasks, the pull-Moran process and the coalescing-branching random walk. Each of these algorithms has extensive applicability within networks and computational complexity within computer science. In this thesis we investigate threshold-based load balancing protocols. We introduce a generalisation of protocols in [2, 3] to weighted tasks. This thesis also analyses an evolutionary-based process called the death-birth update, defined here as the Pull-Moran process. We show that a class of strong universal amplifiers does not exist for the Pull-Moran process. We show that any class of selective amplifiers in the (standard) Moran process is a class of selective suppressors under the Pull-Moran process. We then introduce a class of selective amplifiers called Punk graphs. Finally, we improve the broadcasting time of the coalescing-branching (COBRA) walk analysed in [4], for random regular graphs. Here, we look into the COBRA approach as a randomised rumour spreading protocol. Previous approaches to select agents to form a team rely on single-agent capabilities, and team performance is treated as a sum of such known capabilities. Motivated by complex team formation situations, we address the problem where both single-agent capabilities may not be known upfront, e.g., as in ad hoc teams, and where team performance goes beyond single-agent capabilities and depends on the specific synergy among agents. We formally introduce a novel weighted synergy graph model to capture new interactions among agents. Agents are represented as vertices in the graph, and their capabilities are represented as Normally-distributed variables. The edges of the weighted graph represent how well the agents work together, i.e., their synergy in a team. We contribute a learning algorithm that learns the weighted synergy graph using observations of performance of teams of only two and three agents. Further, we contribute two team formation algorithms, one that finds the optimal team in exponential time, and one that approximates the optimal team in polynomial time. We extensively evaluate our learning algorithm, and demonstrate the expressiveness of the weighted synergy graph in a variety of problems. We show our approach in a rich ad hoc team formation problem capturing a rescue domain, namely the RoboCup Rescue domain, where simulated robots rescue civilians and put out fires in a simulated urban disaster. We show that the weighted synergy graph outperforms a competing algorithm, thus illustrating the efficacy of our model and algorithms.