After the peace agreement of 2016 with FARC, the killings of social leaders have emerged as an important post-conflict challenge for Colombia. We present a data analysis based on official records obtained from the Colombian General Attorney's Office spanning the time period from 2012 to 2017. The results of the analysis show a drastic increase in the officially recorded number of killings of democratically elected leaders of community organizations, in particular those belonging to Juntas de Accion Comunal [Community Action Boards]. These are important entities that have been part of the Colombian democratic apparatus since 1958, and enable communities to advocate for their needs. We also describe how the data analysis guided a journalistic investigation that was motivated by the Colombian government's denial of the systematic nature of social leaders killings.
In a working paper, @cite_9 use data from the Colombian nonprofit organization to investigate the killings of social leaders. The authors hypothesise that social leaders were increasingly killed by armed groups excluded from the peace process that wanted to consolidate their power, especially in areas where they took over FARC's illegal activities. In the dataset, @cite_9 also find that the category of social leaders targeted the most since the beginning of the ceasefire are local community council leaders.
@cite_9
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We study the unintended consequences of the recent peace process in Colombia, that ended over five decades of internal armed conflict with the FARC insurgency. Using a triple differences empirical strategy, we show that the permanent ceasefire that started in December 2014 in the context of the peace negotiations was followed by an increase in the killing of social leaders in previously FARC-dominated territories, perpetrated by other armed groups seeking control of these areas. Con- sistent with our interpretation that local social leaders are killed to thwart collective action and mobilization at the municipal level, we show that the targeting of social leaders is not explained by the behavior of the overall homicide rate and that it is exacerbated in municipalities with weaker state capacity and an inefficient local judi- ciary. Our results suggest that partial pacification processes can exacerbate violence by other existing armed groups, aimed at controlling pacified territories. Although it is increasingly recognised that violence, crime, and associated fear are challenging democratic governance in Latin America, less attention has been paid to the ways in which state responses to crime contribute to the problem. By analysing El Salvador as a case study, this article addresses three key interconnected issues in the debate. First, it explores the dynamic of violence. It then locates youth gangs as violent actors within this context. Finally, it addresses the state response to the growing phenomenon of youth gangs. It is argued that current strategies, dubbed Mano Dura – Iron Fist, employed by the Salvadoran government serve to reveal the fragility of the democratic project, exposing the underside of authoritarianism that remains key to Salvadoran political life in the transitional process from civil war to peace. This paper examines the spatio-temporal evolution of homicide across the municipalities of El Salvador. It aims at identifying both temporal trends and spatial clusters that may contribute to the formation of time-stable corridors lying behind a historically (recurrent) high homicide rate. The results from this study reveal the presence of significant clusters of high homicide municipalities in the Western part of the country that have remained stable over time, and a process of formation of high homicide clusters in the Eastern region. The results show an increasing homicide trend from 2002 to 2013 with significant municipality-specific differential trends across the country. The data suggests that links may exist between the dynamics of homicide rates, drug trafficking and organized crime. Objectives. We modeled the spatiotemporal movement of hotspot clusters of homicide by motive in Newark, New Jersey, to investigate whether different homicide types have different patterns of clustering and movement.Methods. We obtained homicide data from the Newark Police Department Homicide Unit’s investigative files from 1997 through 2007 (n = 560). We geocoded the address at which each homicide victim was found and recorded the date of and the motive for the homicide. We used cluster detection software to model the spatiotemporal movement of statistically significant homicide clusters by motive, using census tract and month of occurrence as the spatial and temporal units of analysis.Results. Gang-motivated homicides showed evidence of clustering and diffusion through Newark. Additionally, gang-motivated homicide clusters overlapped to a degree with revenge and drug-motivated homicide clusters. Escalating dispute and nonintimate familial homicides clustered; however, there was no evidence of diffusion. ... In this paper we examine the information sharing practices of people living in cities amid armed conflict. We describe the volume and frequency of microblogging activity on Twitter from four cities afflicted by the Mexican Drug War, showing how citizens use social media to alert one another and to comment on the violence that plagues their communities. We then investigate the emergence of civic media "curators," individuals who act as "war correspondents" by aggregating and disseminating information to large numbers of people on social media. We conclude by outlining the implications of our observations for the design of civic media systems in wartime. Abstract Propagation of political ideologies in social networks has shown a substantial impact on voting behavior. Both the contents of the messages (the ideology) and the politicians' influence on their online audiences (their followers) have been associated with such an impact. In this study we evaluate which of these factors exerted a major role in deciding electoral results of the 2015 Colombian regional elections by evaluating the linguistic similarity of political ideologies and their influence on the Twitter sphere. The electoral results proved to be strongly associated with tweets and retweets and not with the linguistic content of their ideologies or politicians' followers in Twitter. Finally, suggestions for new ways to analyze electoral processes are discussed. Extremist political movements have proliferated on the web in recent years due to the advent of minimal publication costs coupled with near universal access, resulting in what appears to be an abundance of groups that hover on the fringe of many socially divisive issues. Whether white-supremacist, neo- Nazi, anti-abortion, black separatist, radical Christian, animal rights, or violent environmentalists, all have found a home (and voice) on the Web. These groups form social networks whose ties are predicated primarily on shared political goals. Little is known about these groups, their interconnections, their animosities, and most importantly, their growth and development and studies such as the Dark Web Project, while considering domestic extremists, have focused primarily on international terrorist groups. Yet here in the US, there has been a complex social dynamic unfolding as well. While left-wing radicalism declined throughout the 80s and 90s, right wing hate groups began to flourish. Today, the web offers a place for any brand of extremism, but little is understood about their current growth and development. While there is much to gain from in-depth studies of the content provided by these sites, there is also a surprising amount of information contained in their online network structure as manifested in links between and among these web sites. Our research follows the idea that much can be known about you by the company you keep. In this paper, we propose an approach to measure the intrinsic relationships (i.e., similarities) of a set of extremist web pages. In this model, the web presence of a group is thought of as a node in a social network and the links between these pages are the ties between groups. This approach takes the bi-directional hyperlink structure of web pages and, based on similarity scores, applies an effective multi-membership clustering algorithm known as the quasi clique merger method to cluster these web pages using a derived hierarchical tree. The experimental results show that this new similarity measurement and hierarchical clustering algorithm gives an improvement over traditional link based clustering methods. Introduction This study seeks to analyse the trend of homicide rate in Mexico in last 30 years by age, gender and mechanism of death and identify the socioeconomic variables that better explain the spatial variations of homicide rate in Mexico in 2000 and 2008. Methods Homicide rates adjusted by age were calculated; through the use of multiple regression analysis (stepwise method), variables that better explained the interstate variations in the homicide rates were identified. Results The results show that although homicide rates in Mexico have been relatively high, the rate markedly decreased between early nineties and 2005, but has increased around 35 in last 3 years; furthermore, years of potential life lost by homicide has increased in recent years because the victims are younger; currently, male homicide rate is nine times higher than female rate; throughout the period more than half of homicides were committed by firearms, and in recent years figures exceed 60 . Moreover, social exclusion, drug trafficking, impunity and firearms possession are key elements to understand the spatial variations of the homicide mortality in Mexico in analysed years. Conclusions In recent years it is observed a rise of the homicide rate and consequently, an increment of the social insecurity at a national level; to reduce the number of homicide victims and spatial variations in the rate, the Mexican government needs to combat the cartels of drug trafficking, but also to implement structural reforms to improve the life conditions of Mexican population and diminish the socioeconomic disparities among states. We say that a population is perfectly polarized when divided in two groups of the same size and opposite opinions. In this paper, we propose a methodology to study and measure the emergence of polarization from social interactions. We begin by proposing a model to estimate opinions in which a minority of influential individuals propagate their opinions through a social network. The result of the model is an opinion probability density function. Next, we propose an index to quantify the extent to which the resulting distribution is polarized. Finally, we apply the proposed methodology to a Twitter conversation about the late Venezuelan president, Hugo Chavez, finding a good agreement between our results and offline data. Hence, we show that our methodology can detect different degrees of polarization, depending on the structure of the network. The objective was to evaluate correlations between suicide, homicide and socio-demographic variables by an ecological study. Mortality and socio-demographic data were collected from official records of the Ministry of Health and IBGE (2010), aggregated by state (27). The data were analyzed using correlation techniques, factor analysis, principal component analysis with a varimax rotation and multiple linear regression. Suicide age-adjusted rates for the total population, men and women were 5.0, 8.0, and 2.2 per 100,000 inhabitants respectively. The suicide rates ranged from 2.7 in Para to 9.1 in Rio Grande do Sul. Homicide for the total population, men and women were 27.2, 50.8, and 4.5 per 100,000, respectively. The homicide rates ranged from 13.0 in Santa Catarina to 68.9 in Alagoas. Suicide and homicide were negatively associated, the significance persisted among men. Unemployment was negatively correlated with suicide and positively with homicide. Different socio-demographic variables were found to correlate with suicide and homicide in the regressions. Suicide showed a pattern suggesting that, in Brazil, it is related to high socioeconomic status. Homicide seemed to follow the pattern found in other countries, associated with lower social and economic status. OBJECTIVE To analyze the spatial distribution of homicide mortality in the state of Bahia, Northeastern Brazil. METHODS Ecological study of the 15 to 39-year old male population in the state of Bahia in the period 1996-2010. Data from the Mortality Information System, relating to homicide (X85-Y09) and population estimates from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics were used. The existence of spatial correlation, the presence of clusters and critical areas of the event studied were analyzed using Moran’s I Global and Local indices. RESULTS A non-random spatial pattern was observed in the distribution of rates, as was the presence of three clusters, the first in the north health district, the second in the eastern region, and the third cluster included townships in the south and the far south of Bahia. CONCLUSIONS The homicide mortality in the three different critical areas requires further studies that consider the socioeconomic, cultural and environmental characteristics in order to guide specific preventive and interventionist practices. This study examines the JUNIOR SUMMIT online community, which consisted of 3,062 adolescents representing 139 countries, varying SES, and a range of experience with computers. The online forum culminated in the election of 100 delegates. By analyzing the messages posted before results of the election were announced, we explore whether language use predicts who was elected as a leader, as well as gender differences in leadership style. Results indicate that the young online leaders do not adhere to adult leadership styles of contributing many ideas, sticking to task, and using powerful language. On the contrary, while the young people elected as delegates do contribute more, their linguistic style is likely to keep the goals and needs of the group as central-by referring to the group rather than to themselves, and by synthesizing the posts of others rather than solely contributing their own ideas. Furthermore, both boy and girl leaders follow this pattern of interpersonal language use. These results reassure us that young people can be civically engaged and community minded, while indicating that these concepts themselves may change through contact with the next generation. The wide availability of user-provided content in online social media facilitates the aggregation of people around common interests, worldviews, and narratives. However, the World Wide Web (WWW) also allows for the rapid dissemination of unsubstantiated rumors and conspiracy theories that often elicit rapid, large, but naive social responses such as the recent case of Jade Helm 15––where a simple military exercise turned out to be perceived as the beginning of a new civil war in the United States. In this work, we address the determinants governing misinformation spreading through a thorough quantitative analysis. In particular, we focus on how Facebook users consume information related to two distinct narratives: scientific and conspiracy news. We find that, although consumers of scientific and conspiracy stories present similar consumption patterns with respect to content, cascade dynamics differ. Selective exposure to content is the primary driver of content diffusion and generates the formation of homogeneous clusters, i.e., “echo chambers.” Indeed, homogeneity appears to be the primary driver for the diffusion of contents and each echo chamber has its own cascade dynamics. Finally, we introduce a data-driven percolation model mimicking rumor spreading and we show that homogeneity and polarization are the main determinants for predicting cascades’ size. Data from a voluntary association are used to construct a new formal model for a traditional anthropological problem, fission in small groups. The process leading to fission is viewed as an unequal flow of sentiments and information across the ties in a social network. This flow is unequal because it is uniquely constrained by the contextual range and sensitivity of each relationship in the network. The subsequent differential sharing of sentiments leads to the formation of subgroups with more internal stability than the group as a whole, and results in fission. The Ford-Fulkerson labeling algorithm allows an accurate prediction of membership in the subgroups and of the locus of the fission to be made from measurements of the potential for information flow across each edge in the network. Methods for measurement of potential information flow are discussed, and it is shown that all appropriate techniques will generate the same predictions. Modern conflicts are characterized by an ever increasing use of information and sensing technology, resulting in vast amounts of high resolution data. Modelling and prediction of conflict, however, remain challenging tasks due to the heterogeneous and dynamic nature of the data typically available. Here we propose the use of dynamic spatiotemporal modelling tools for the identification of complex underlying processes in conflict, such as diffusion, relocation, heterogeneous escalation, and volatility. Using ideas from statistics, signal processing, and ecology, we provide a predictive framework able to assimilate data and give confidence estimates on the predictions. We demonstrate our methods on the WikiLeaks Afghan War Diary. Our results show that the approach allows deeper insights into conflict dynamics and allows a strikingly statistically accurate forward prediction of armed opposition group activity in 2010, based solely on data from previous years. The wide availability of user-provided content in online social media facilitates the aggregation of people around common interests, worldviews, and narratives. Despite the enthusiastic rhetoric on the part of some that this process generates "collective intelligence", the WWW also allows the rapid dissemination of unsubstantiated conspiracy theories that often elicite rapid, large, but naive social responses such as the recent case of Jade Helm 15 -- where a simple military exercise turned out to be perceived as the beginning of the civil war in the US. We study how Facebook users consume information related to two different kinds of narrative: scientific and conspiracy news. We find that although consumers of scientific and conspiracy stories present similar consumption patterns with respect to content, the sizes of the spreading cascades differ. Homogeneity appears to be the primary driver for the diffusion of contents, but each echo chamber has its own cascade dynamics. To mimic these dynamics, we introduce a data-driven percolation model on signed networks. This article explores a particular pattern of wartime violence, the relative absence of sexual violence on the part of many armed groups. This neglected fact has important policy implications: If some groups do not engage in sexual violence, then rape is not inevitable in war as is sometimes claimed, and there are stronger grounds for holding responsible those groups that do engage in sexual violence. After developing a theoretical framework for understanding the observed variation in wartime sexual violence, the article analyzes the puzzling absence of sexual violence on the part of the secessionist Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam of Sri Lanka. We propose a new, socially-impactful task for natural language processing: from a news corpus, extract names of persons who have been killed by police. We present a newly collected police fatality corpus, which we release publicly, and present a model to solve this problem that uses EM-based distant supervision with logistic regression and convolutional neural network classifiers. Our model outperforms two off-the-shelf event extractor systems, and it can suggest candidate victim names in some cases faster than one of the major manually-collected police fatality databases. Abstract : The purpose of this paper is to explore the question of how modern terrorist groups manage to survive in the face of aggressive counterterrorist operations by security forces. Al Qa'ida survives to this day, despite the destruction of their Afghanistan sanctuary, the loss of countless key personnel, and continuous pressure by the United States and their allies. Why has al Qa'ida survived? Since much of the literature on terrorism focuses on how to eliminate them, this research paper focuses on why they still endure. In other words, instead of asking, "How do we kill them," this research asks, "Why don't they die?" This research employs a dynamic network analysis approach to explore the primary research question of terrorist survival. This analysis combines aspects of traditional social network analysis with a new multi-agent model that describes how terrorist groups raise agents through the organization to positions of prominence. The key to this process is the radicalization of members based on time, connectivity, and belief intensity. The testing dataset comes from the 1998 Tanzania Embassy bombing, expressed in the form of a meta-network. After four testing program iterations, the author concludes that terrorist organizational survival is based on the internal dynamics of leader selection and growth within the group as new members advance. These findings imply a number of recommendations for counterterrorist operations and intelligence activities in order to disrupt the growth and development of new leaders. Additionally, these results imply that current Joint and Army doctrine on network analysis insufficiently addresses the dynamic processes that network diagrams are intended to depict. American military counterinsurgency and counterterrorist operations can be greatly enhanced by moving from a network analysis approach based on structure to one based on dynamics. In this paper we present a multimodal analysis of emergent leadership in small groups using audio-visual features and discuss our experience in designing and collecting a data corpus for this purpose. The ELEA Audio-Visual Synchronized corpus (ELEA AVS) was collected using a light portable setup and contains recordings of small group meetings. The participants in each group performed the winter survival task and filled in questionnaires related to personality and several social concepts such as leadership and dominance. In addition, the corpus includes annotations on participants’ performance in the survival task, and also annotations of social concepts from external viewers. Based on this corpus, we present the feasibility of predicting the emergent leader in small groups using automatically extracted audio and visual features, based on speaking turns and visual attention, and we focus specifically on multimodal features that make use of the looking at participants while speaking and looking at while not speaking measures. Our findings indicate that emergent leadership is related, but not equivalent, to dominance, and while multimodal features bring a moderate degree of effectiveness in inferring the leader, much simpler features extracted from the audio channel are found to give better performance.