Generative neural samplers are probabilistic models that implement sampling using feedforward neural networks: they take a random input vector and produce a sample from a probability distribution defined by the network weights. These models are expressive and allow efficient computation of samples and derivatives, but cannot be used for computing likelihoods or for marginalization. The generative-adversarial training method allows to train such models through the use of an auxiliary discriminative neural network. We show that the generative-adversarial approach is a special case of an existing more general variational divergence estimation approach. We show that any f-divergence can be used for training generative neural samplers. We discuss the benefits of various choices of divergence functions on training complexity and the quality of the obtained generative models.
@cite_25 and @cite_4 perform a factorization of the output using a predefined and somewhat arbitrary ordering of output dimensions. The resulting model samples one variable at a time conditioning on the entire history of past variables. These models provide tractable likelihood evaluations and compelling results but it is unclear how to select the factorization order in many applications .
@cite_4 @cite_25
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Recommender problems with large and dynamic item pools are ubiquitous in web applications like content optimization, online advertising and web search. Despite the availability of rich item meta-data, excess heterogeneity at the item level often requires inclusion of item-specific "factors" (or weights) in the model. However, since estimating item factors is computationally intensive, it poses a challenge for time-sensitive recommender problems where it is important to rapidly learn factors for new items (e.g., news articles, event updates, tweets) in an online fashion. In this paper, we propose a novel method called FOBFM (Fast Online Bilinear Factor Model) to learn item-specific factors quickly through online regression. The online regression for each item can be performed independently and hence the procedure is fast, scalable and easily parallelizable. However, the convergence of these independent regressions can be slow due to high dimensionality. The central idea of our approach is to use a large amount of historical data to initialize the online models based on offline features and learn linear projections that can effectively reduce the dimensionality. We estimate the rank of our linear projections by taking recourse to online model selection based on optimizing predictive likelihood. Through extensive experiments, we show that our method significantly and uniformly outperforms other competitive methods and obtains relative lifts that are in the range of 10-15 in terms of predictive log-likelihood, 200-300 for a rank correlation metric on a proprietary My Yahoo! dataset; it obtains 9 reduction in root mean squared error over the previously best method on a benchmark MovieLens dataset using a time-based train test data split. Extracting useful information from high-dimensional data is an important focus of today's statistical research and practice. Penalized loss function minimization has been shown to be effective for this task both theoretically and empirically. With the virtues of both regularization and sparsity, the L 1 -penalized squared error minimization method Lasso has been popular in regression models and beyond. In this paper, we combine different norms including L 1 to form an intelligent penalty in order to add side information to the fitting of a regression or classification model to obtain reasonable estimates. Specifically, we introduce the Composite Absolute Penalties (CAP) family, which allows given grouping and hierarchical relationships between the predictors to be expressed. CAP penalties are built by defining groups and combining the properties of norm penalties at the across-group and within-group levels. Grouped selection occurs for nonoverlapping groups. Hierarchical variable selection is reached by defining groups with particular overlapping patterns. We propose using the BLASSO and cross-validation to compute CAP estimates in general. For a subfamily of CAP estimates involving only the L 1 and L ∞ norms, we introduce the iCAP algorithm to trace the entire regularization path for the grouped selection problem. Within this subfamily, unbiased estimates of the degrees of freedom (df) are derived so that the regularization parameter is selected without cross-validation. CAP is shown to improve on the predictive performance of the LASSO in a series of simulated experiments, including cases with p » n and possibly mis-specified groupings. When the complexity of a model is properly calculated, iCAP is seen to be parsimonious in the experiments. Given a collection of r ≥ 2 linear regression problems in p dimensions, suppose that the regression coefficients share partially common supports of size at most s. This set-up suggests the use of l1 l∞-regularized regression for joint estimation of the p×r matrix of regression coefficients. We analyze the high-dimensional scaling of l1 l∞-regularized quadratic programming, considering both consistency rates in l∞-norm, and how the minimal sample size n required for consistent variable selection scales with model dimension, sparsity, and overlap between the supports. We first establish bounds on the l∞-error as well sufficient conditions for exact variable selection for fixed design matrices, as well as for designs drawn randomly from general Gaussian distributions. Specializing to the case r = 2 linear regression problems with standard Gaussian designs whose supports overlap in a fraction α ∈ [0,1] of their entries, we prove that l1 l∞-regularized method undergoes a phase transition characterized by the rescaled sample size θ1,∞(n, p, s, α) = n (4 - 3 α) s log(p-(2- α) s) . An implication is that the use of l1 l∞-regularization yields improved statistical efficiency if the overlap parameter is large enough ( α >; 2 3), but has worse statistical efficiency than a naive Lasso-based approach for moderate to small overlap (α <; 2 3 ). Empirical simulations illustrate the close agreement between theory and actual behavior in practice. These results show that caution must be exercised in applying l1 l∞ block regularization: if the data does not match its structure very closely, it can impair statistical performance relative to computationally less expensive schemes. We consider the least-square linear regression problem with regularization by the l1-norm, a problem usually referred to as the Lasso. In this paper, we present a detailed asymptotic analysis of model consistency of the Lasso. For various decays of the regularization parameter, we compute asymptotic equivalents of the probability of correct model selection (i.e., variable selection). For a specific rate decay, we show that the Lasso selects all the variables that should enter the model with probability tending to one exponentially fast, while it selects all other variables with strictly positive probability. We show that this property implies that if we run the Lasso for several bootstrapped replications of a given sample, then intersecting the supports of the Lasso bootstrap estimates leads to consistent model selection. This novel variable selection algorithm, referred to as the Bolasso, is compared favorably to other linear regression methods on synthetic data and datasets from the UCI machine learning repository. We introduce a dynamic mechanism for the solution of analytically-tractable substructure in probabilistic programs, using conjugate priors and affine transformations to reduce variance in Monte Carlo estimators. For inference with Sequential Monte Carlo, this automatically yields improvements such as locally-optimal proposals and Rao-Blackwellization. The mechanism maintains a directed graph alongside the running program that evolves dynamically as operations are triggered upon it. Nodes of the graph represent random variables, edges the analytically-tractable relationships between them. Random variables remain in the graph for as long as possible, to be sampled only when they are used by the program in a way that cannot be resolved analytically. In the meantime, they are conditioned on as many observations as possible. We demonstrate the mechanism with a few pedagogical examples, as well as a linear-nonlinear state-space model with simulated data, and an epidemiological model with real data of a dengue outbreak in Micronesia. In all cases one or more variables are automatically marginalized out to significantly reduce variance in estimates of the marginal likelihood, in the final case facilitating a random-weight or pseudo-marginal-type importance sampler for parameter estimation. We have implemented the approach in Anglican and a new probabilistic programming language called Birch. CANDECOMP PARAFAC (CP) tensor factorization of incomplete data is a powerful technique for tensor completion through explicitly capturing the multilinear latent factors. The existing CP algorithms require the tensor rank to be manually specified, however, the determination of tensor rank remains a challenging problem especially for CP rank . In addition, existing approaches do not take into account uncertainty information of latent factors, as well as missing entries. To address these issues, we formulate CP factorization using a hierarchical probabilistic model and employ a fully Bayesian treatment by incorporating a sparsity-inducing prior over multiple latent factors and the appropriate hyperpriors over all hyperparameters, resulting in automatic rank determination. To learn the model, we develop an efficient deterministic Bayesian inference algorithm, which scales linearly with data size. Our method is characterized as a tuning parameter-free approach, which can effectively infer underlying multilinear factors with a low-rank constraint, while also providing predictive distributions over missing entries. Extensive simulations on synthetic data illustrate the intrinsic capability of our method to recover the ground-truth of CP rank and prevent the overfitting problem, even when a large amount of entries are missing. Moreover, the results from real-world applications, including image inpainting and facial image synthesis, demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art approaches for both tensor factorization and tensor completion in terms of predictive performance. We develop a Bayesian nonparametric Poisson factorization model for recommendation systems. Poisson factorization implicitly models each user’s limited budget of attention (or money) that allows consumption of only a small subset of the available items. In our Bayesian nonparametric variant, the number of latent components is theoretically unbounded and eectively estimated when computing a posterior with observed user behavior data. To approximate the posterior, we develop an ecient variational inference algorithm. It adapts the dimensionality of the latent components to the data, only requires iteration over the user item pairs that have been rated, and has computational complexity on the same order as for a parametric model with xed dimensionality. We studied our model and algorithm with large realworld data sets of user-movie preferences. Our model eases the computational burden of searching for the number of latent components and gives better predictive performance than its parametric counterpart. The use of automated subset search algorithms is reviewed and issues concerning model selection and selection criteria are discussed. In addition, a Monte Carlo study is reported which presents data regarding the frequency with which authentic and noise variables are selected by automated subset algorithms. In particular, the effects of the correlation between predictor variables, the number of candidate predictor variables, the size of the sample, and the level of significance for entry and deletion of variables were studied for three automated subset algorithms: BACKWARD ELIMINATION, FORWARD SELECTION, and STEPWISE. Results indicated that: (1) the degree of correlation between the predictor variables affected the frequency with which authentic predictor variables found their way into the final model; (2) the number of candidate predictor variables affected the number of noise variables that gained entry to the model; (3) the size of the sample was of little practical importance in determining the number of authentic variables contained in the final model; and (4) the population multiple coefficient of determination could be faithfully estimated by adopting a statistic that is adjusted by the total number of candidate predictor variables rather than the number of variables in the final model. We propose robust methods for inference on the effect of a treatment variable on a scalar outcome in the presence of very many controls. Our setting is a partially linear model with possibly non-Gaussian and heteroscedastic disturbances. Our analysis allows the number of controls to be much larger than the sample size. To make informative inference feasible, we require the model to be approximately sparse; that is, we require that the effect of confounding factors can be controlled for up to a small approximation error by conditioning on a relatively small number of controls whose identities are unknown. The latter condition makes it possible to estimate the treatment effect by selecting approximately the right set of controls. We develop a novel estimation and uniformly valid inference method for the treatment effect in this setting, called the "post-double-selection" method. Our results apply to Lasso-type methods used for covariate selection as well as to any other model selection method that is able to find a sparse model with good approximation properties. The main attractive feature of our method is that it allows for imperfect selection of the controls and provides confidence intervals that are valid uniformly across a large class of models. In contrast, standard post-model selection estimators fail to provide uniform inference even in simple cases with a small, fixed number of controls. Thus our method resolves the problem of uniform inference after model selection for a large, interesting class of models. We illustrate the use of the developed methods with numerical simulations and an application to the effect of abortion on crime rates. Many factorization models like matrix or tensor factorization have been proposed for the important application of recommender systems. The success of such factorization models depends largely on the choice of good values for the regularization parameters. Without a careful selection they result in poor prediction quality as they either underfit or overfit the data. Regularization values are typically determined by an expensive search that requires learning the model parameters several times: once for each tuple of candidate values for the regularization parameters. In this paper, we present a new method that adapts the regularization automatically while training the model parameters. To achieve this, we optimize simultaneously for two criteria: (1) as usual the model parameters for the regularized objective and (2) the regularization of future parameter updates for the best predictive quality on a validation set. We develop this for the generic model class of Factorization Machines which subsumes a wide variety of factorization models. We show empirically, that the advantages of our adaptive regularization method compared to expensive hyperparameter search do not come to the price of worse predictive quality. In total with our method, learning regularization parameters is as easy as learning model parameters and thus there is no need for any time-consuming search of regularization values because they are found on-the-fly. This makes our method highly attractive for practical use. We are interested in estimating the average effect of a binary treatment on a scalar outcome. If assignment to the treatment is independent of the potential outcomes given pretreatment variables, biases associated with simple treatment-control average comparisons can be removed by adjusting for differences in the pre-treatment variables. Rosenbaum and Rubin (1983, 1984) show that adjusting solely for differences between treated and control units in a scalar function of the pre-treatment, the propensity score, also removes the entire bias associated with differences in pre-treatment variables. Thus it is possible to obtain unbiased estimates of the treatment effect without conditioning on a possibly high-dimensional vector of pre-treatment variables. Although adjusting for the propensity score removes all the bias, this can come at the expense of efficiency. We show that weighting with the inverse of a nonparametric estimate of the propensity score, rather than the true propensity score, leads to efficient estimates of the various average treatment effects. This result holds whether the pre-treatment variables have discrete or continuous distributions. We provide intuition for this result in a number of ways. First we show that with discrete covariates, exact adjustment for the estimated propensity score is identical to adjustment for the pre-treatment variables. Second, we show that weighting by the inverse of the estimated propensity score can be interpreted as an empirical likelihood estimator that efficiently incorporates the information about the propensity score. Finally, we make a connection to results to other results on efficient estimation through weighting in the context of variable probability sampling. Meinshausen and Buhlmann [Ann. Statist. 34 (2006) 1436-1462] showed that, for neighborhood selection in Gaussian graphical models, under a neighborhood stability condition, the LASSO is consistent, even when the number of variables is of greater order than the sample size. Zhao and Yu [(2006) J. Machine Learning Research 7 2541-2567] formalized the neighborhood stability condition in the context of linear regression as a strong irrepresentable condition. That paper showed that under this condition, the LASSO selects exactly the set of nonzero regression coefficients, provided that these coefficients are bounded away from zero at a certain rate. In this paper, the regression coefficients outside an ideal model are assumed to be small, but not necessarily zero. Under a sparse Riesz condition on the correlation of design variables, we prove that the LASSO selects a model of the correct order of dimensionality, controls the bias of the selected model at a level determined by the contributions of small regression coefficients and threshold bias, and selects all coefficients of greater order than the bias of the selected model. Moreover, as a consequence of this rate consistency of the LASSO in model selection, it is proved that the sum of error squares for the mean response and the l α -loss for the regression coefficients converge at the best possible rates under the given conditions. An interesting aspect of our results is that the logarithm of the number of variables can be of the same order as the sample size for certain random dependent designs. Matrix factorization approaches to relation extraction provide several attractive features: they support distant supervision, handle open schemas, and leverage unlabeled data. Unfortunately, these methods share a shortcoming with all other distantly supervised approaches: they cannot learn to extract target relations without existing data in the knowledge base, and likewise, these models are inaccurate for relations with sparse data. Rule-based extractors, on the other hand, can be easily extended to novel relations and improved for existing but inaccurate relations, through first-order formulae that capture auxiliary domain knowledge. However, usually a large set of such formulae is necessary to achieve generalization. In this paper, we introduce a paradigm for learning low-dimensional embeddings of entity-pairs and relations that combine the advantages of matrix factorization with first-order logic domain knowledge. We introduce simple approaches for estimating such embeddings, as well as a novel training algorithm to jointly optimize over factual and first-order logic information. Our results show that this method is able to learn accurate extractors with little or no distant supervision alignments, while at the same time generalizing to textual patterns that do not appear in the formulae. We present an expository, general analysis of valid post-selection or post-regularization inference about a low-dimensional target parameter in the presence of a very high-dimensional nuisance parameter that is estimated using selection or regularization methods. Our analysis provides a set of high-level conditions under which inference for the low-dimensional parameter based on testing or point estimation methods will be regular despite selection or regularization biases occurring in the estimation of the high-dimensional nuisance parameter. A key element is the use of so-called immunized or orthogonal estimating equations that are locally insensitive to small mistakes in the estimation of the high-dimensional nuisance parameter. As an illustration, we analyze affine-quadratic models and specialize these results to a linear instrumental variables model with many regressors and many instruments. We conclude with a review of other developments in post-selection inference and note that many can be viewed as special cases of the general encompassing framework of orthogonal estimating equations provided in this article. Summary. Variable selection plays an important role in high dimensional statistical modelling which nowadays appears in many areas and is key to various scientific discoveries. For problems of large scale or dimensionality p, accuracy of estimation and computational cost are two top concerns. Recently, Candes and Tao have proposed the Dantzig selector using L1‐regularization and showed that it achieves the ideal risk up to a logarithmic factor log (p). Their innovative procedure and remarkable result are challenged when the dimensionality is ultrahigh as the factor log (p) can be large and their uniform uncertainty principle can fail. Motivated by these concerns, we introduce the concept of sure screening and propose a sure screening method that is based on correlation learning, called sure independence screening, to reduce dimensionality from high to a moderate scale that is below the sample size. In a fairly general asymptotic framework, correlation learning is shown to have the sure screening property for even exponentially growing dimensionality. As a methodological extension, iterative sure independence screening is also proposed to enhance its finite sample performance. With dimension reduced accurately from high to below sample size, variable selection can be improved on both speed and accuracy, and can then be accomplished by a well‐developed method such as smoothly clipped absolute deviation, the Dantzig selector, lasso or adaptive lasso. The connections between these penalized least squares methods are also elucidated. Most deep latent factor models choose simple priors for simplicity, tractability or not knowing what prior to use. Recent studies show that the choice of the prior may have a profound effect on the expressiveness of the model, especially when its generative network has limited capacity. In this paper, we propose to learn a proper prior from data for adversarial autoencoders (AAEs). We introduce the notion of code generators to transform manually selected simple priors into ones that can better characterize the data distribution. Experimental results show that the proposed model can generate better image quality and learn better disentangled representations than AAEs in both supervised and unsupervised settings. Lastly, we present its ability to do cross-domain translation in a text-to-image synthesis task. Neural Autoregressive Distribution Estimators (NADEs) have recently been shown as successful alternatives for modeling high dimensional multimodal distributions. One issue associated with NADEs is that they rely on a particular order of factorization for P(x). This issue has been recently addressed by a variant of NADE called Orderless NADEs and its deeper version, Deep Orderless NADE. Orderless NADEs are trained based on a criterion that stochastically maximizes P(x) with all possible orders of factorizations. Unfortunately, ancestral sampling from deep NADE is very expensive, corresponding to running through a neural net separately predicting each of the visible variables given some others. This work makes a connection between this criterion and the training criterion for Generative Stochastic Networks (GSNs). It shows that training NADEs in this way also trains a GSN, which defines a Markov chain associated with the NADE model. Based on this connection, we show an alternative way to sample from a trained Orderless NADE that allows to trade-off computing time and quality of the samples: a 3 to 10-fold speedup (taking into account the waste due to correlations between consecutive samples of the chain) can be obtained without noticeably reducing the quality of the samples. This is achieved using a novel sampling procedure for GSNs called annealed GSN sampling, similar to tempering methods that combines fast mixing (obtained thanks to steps at high noise levels) with accurate samples (obtained thanks to steps at low noise levels). A novel probabilistic retrieval model is presented. It forms a basis to interpret the TF-IDF term weights as making relevance decisions. It simulates the local relevance decision-making for every location of a document, and combines all of these “local” relevance decisions as the “document-wide” relevance decision for the document. The significance of interpreting TF-IDF in this way is the potential to: (1) establish a unifying perspective about information retrieval as relevance decision-making; and (2) develop advanced TF-IDF-related term weights for future elaborate retrieval models. Our novel retrieval model is simplified to a basic ranking formula that directly corresponds to the TF-IDF term weights. In general, we show that the term-frequency factor of the ranking formula can be rendered into different term-frequency factors of existing retrieval systems. In the basic ranking formula, the remaining quantity - log p(rvt ∈ d) is interpreted as the probability of randomly picking a nonrelevant usage (denoted by r) of term t. Mathematically, we show that this quantity can be approximated by the inverse document-frequency (IDF). Empirically, we show that this quantity is related to IDF, using four reference TREC ad hoc retrieval data collections. Many modern tools in machine learning and signal processing, such as sparse dictionary learning, principal component analysis, non-negative matrix factorization, @math -means clustering, and so on, rely on the factorization of a matrix obtained by concatenating high-dimensional vectors from a training collection. While the idealized task would be to optimize the expected quality of the factors over the underlying distribution of training vectors, it is achieved in practice by minimizing an empirical average over the considered collection. The focus of this paper is to provide sample complexity estimates to uniformly control how much the empirical average deviates from the expected cost function. Standard arguments imply that the performance of the empirical predictor also exhibit such guarantees. The level of genericity of the approach encompasses several possible constraints on the factors (tensor product structure, shift-invariance, sparsity…), thus providing a unified perspective on the sample complexity of several widely used matrix factorization schemes. The derived generalization bounds behave proportional to @math with respect to the number of samples @math for the considered matrix factorization techniques. In this paper, we propose three criteria for efficient sample selection in case of data stream regression problems within an online active learning context. The selection becomes important whenever the target values, which guide the update of the regressors as well as the implicit model structures, are costly or time-consuming to measure and also in case when very fast models updates are required to cope with stream mining real-time demands. Reducing the selected samples as much as possible while keeping the predictive accuracy of the models on a high level is, thus, a central challenge. This should be ideally achieved in unsupervised and single-pass manner. Our selection criteria rely on three aspects: 1) the extrapolation degree combined with the model's nonlinearity degree , which is measured in terms of a new specific homogeneity criterion among adjacent local approximators; 2) the uncertainty in model outputs, which can be measured in terms of confidence intervals using so-called adaptive local error bars — we integrate a weighted localization of an incremental noise level estimator and propose formulas for online merging of local error bars; 3) the uncertainty in model parameters, which is estimated by the so-called A-optimality criterion, which relies on the Fisher information matrix. The selection criteria are developed in combination with evolving generalized Takagi–Sugeno (TS) fuzzy models (containing rules in arbitrarily rotated position), as it could be shown in previous publications that these outperform conventional evolving TS models (containing axis-parallel rules). The results based on three high-dimensional real-world streaming problems show that a model update based on only 10 –20 selected samples can still achieve similar accumulated model errors over time to the case when performing a full model update on all samples. This can be achieved with a negligible sensitivity on the size of the active learning latency buffer. Random sampling with the same percentages of samples selected, however, achieved much higher error rates. Hence, the intelligence in our sample selection concept leads to an economic balance between model accuracy and measurement as well computational costs for model updates.