In this paper, we propose an offline counterfactual policy estimation framework called Genie to optimize Sponsored Search Marketplace. Genie employs an open box simulation engine with click calibration model to compute the KPI impact of any modification to the system. From the experimental results on Bing traffic, we showed that Genie performs better than existing observational approaches that employs randomized experiments for traffic slices that have frequent policy updates. We also show that Genie can be used to tune completely new policies efficiently without creating risky randomized experiments due to cold start problem. As time of today, Genie hosts more than 10000 optimization jobs yearly which runs more than 30 Million processing node hours of big data jobs for Bing Ads. For the last 3 years, Genie has been proven to be the one of the major platforms to optimize Bing Ads Marketplace due to its reliability under frequent policy changes and its efficiency to minimize risks in real experiments.
Counterfactual reasoning and estimation systems @cite_19 @cite_21 @cite_14 answer questions like "how would the system performance had been changed if the modification had been applied to the system during log collection?". The idea for these systems is to use online event logs to train models and predict KPIs for new modifications.
@cite_19 @cite_14 @cite_21
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Predicting system failures can be of great benefit to managers that get a better command over system performance. Data that systems generate in the form of logs is a valuable source of information to predict system reliability. As such, there is an increasing demand of tools to mine logs and provide accurate predictions. However, interpreting information in logs poses some challenges. This study discusses how to effectively mining sequences of logs and provide correct predictions. The approach integrates different machine learning techniques to control for data brittleness, provide accuracy of model selection and validation, and increase robustness of classification results. We apply the proposed approach to log sequences of 25 different applications of a software system for telemetry and performance of cars. On this system, we discuss the ability of three well-known support vector machines - multilayer perceptron, radial basis function and linear kernels - to fit and predict defective log sequences. Our results show that a good analysis strategy provides stable, accurate predictions. Such strategy must at least require high fitting ability of models used for prediction. We demonstrate that such models give excellent predictions both on individual applications - e.g., 1 false positive rate, 94 true positive rate, and 95 precision - and across system applications - on average, 9 false positive rate, 78 true positive rate, and 95 precision. We also show that these results are similarly achieved for different degree of sequence defectiveness. To show how good are our results, we compare them with recent studies in system log analysis. We finally provide some recommendations that we draw reflecting on our study. This paper addresses the problem of predicting the outcome of an ongoing case of a business process based on event logs. In this setting, the outcome of a case may refer for example to the achievement of a performance objective or the fulfillment of a compliance rule upon completion of the case. Given a log consisting of traces of completed cases, given a trace of an ongoing case, and given two or more possible outcomes e.g., a positive and a negative outcome, the paper addresses the problem of determining the most likely outcome for the case in question. Previous approaches to this problem are largely based on simple symbolic sequence classification, meaning that they extract features from traces seen as sequences of event labels, and use these features to construct a classifier for runtime prediction. In doing so, these approaches ignore the data payload associated to each event. This paper approaches the problem from a different angle by treating traces as complex symbolic sequences, that is, sequences of events each carrying a data payload. In this context, the paper outlines different feature encodings of complex symbolic sequences and compares their predictive accuracy on real-life business process event logs. Optimizing an interactive system against a predefined online metric is particularly challenging, especially when the metric is computed from user feedback such as clicks and payments. The key challenge is the counterfactual nature: in the case of Web search, any change to a component of the search engine may result in a different search result page for the same query, but we normally cannot infer reliably from search log how users would react to the new result page. Consequently, it appears impossible to accurately estimate online metrics that depend on user feedback, unless the new engine is actually run to serve live users and compared with a baseline in a controlled experiment. This approach, while valid and successful, is unfortunately expensive and time-consuming. In this paper, we propose to address this problem using causal inference techniques, under the contextual-bandit framework. This approach effectively allows one to run potentially many online experiments offline from search log, making it possible to estimate and optimize online metrics quickly and inexpensively. Focusing on an important component in a commercial search engine, we show how these ideas can be instantiated and applied, and obtain very promising results that suggest the wide applicability of these techniques. A traditional counterexample to a linear-time safety property shows the values of all signals at all times prior to the error. However, some signals may not be critical to causing the failure. A succinct explanation may help human understanding as well as speed up algorithms that have to analyze many such traces. In Bounded Model Checking (BMC), a counterexample is constructed from a satisfying assignment to a Boolean formula, typically in CNF. Modern SAT solvers usually assign values to all variables when the input formula is satisfiable. Deriving minimal satisfying assignments from such complete assignments does not lead to concise explanations of counterexamples because of how CNF formulae are derived from the models. Hence, we formulate the extraction of a succinct counterexample as the problem of finding a minimal assignment that, together with the Boolean formula describing the model, implies an objective. We present a two-stage algorithm for this problem, such that the result of each stage contributes to identify the “interesting” events that cause the failure. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach with an example and with experimental results. This paper identifies a severe problem of the counterfactual risk estimator typically used in batch learning from logged bandit feedback (BLBF), and proposes the use of an alternative estimator that avoids this problem. In the BLBF setting, the learner does not receive full-information feedback like in supervised learning, but observes feedback only for the actions taken by a historical policy. This makes BLBF algorithms particularly attractive for training online systems (e.g., ad placement, web search, recommendation) using their historical logs. The Counterfactual Risk Minimization (CRM) principle [1] offers a general recipe for designing BLBF algorithms. It requires a counterfactual risk estimator, and virtually all existing works on BLBF have focused on a particular unbiased estimator. We show that this conventional estimator suffers from a propensity overfitting problem when used for learning over complex hypothesis spaces. We propose to replace the risk estimator with a self-normalized estimator, showing that it neatly avoids this problem. This naturally gives rise to a new learning algorithm - Normalized Policy Optimizer for Exponential Models (Norm-POEM) - for structured output prediction using linear rules. We evaluate the empirical effectiveness of Norm-POEM on several multi-label classification problems, finding that it consistently outperforms the conventional estimator. We develop a learning principle and an efficient algorithm for batch learning from logged bandit feedback. This learning setting is ubiquitous in online systems (e.g., ad placement, web search, recommendation), where an algorithm makes a prediction (e.g., ad ranking) for a given input (e.g., query) and observes bandit feedback (e.g., user clicks on presented ads). We first address the counterfactual nature of the learning problem through propensity scoring. Next, we prove generalization error bounds that account for the variance of the propensity-weighted empirical risk estimator. These constructive bounds give rise to the Counterfactual Risk Minimization (CRM) principle. We show how CRM can be used to derive a new learning method -- called Policy Optimizer for Exponential Models (POEM) -- for learning stochastic linear rules for structured output prediction. We present a decomposition of the POEM objective that enables efficient stochastic gradient optimization. POEM is evaluated on several multi-label classification problems showing substantially improved robustness and generalization performance compared to the state-of-the-art. We develop a learning principle and an efficient algorithm for batch learning from logged bandit feedback. This learning setting is ubiquitous in online systems (e.g., ad placement, web search, recommendation), where an algorithm makes a prediction (e.g., ad ranking) for a given input (e.g., query) and observes bandit feedback (e.g., user clicks on presented ads). We first address the counterfactual nature of the learning problem (, 2013) through propensity scoring. Next, we prove generalization error bounds that account for the variance of the propensity-weighted empirical risk estimator. In analogy to the Structural Risk Minimization principle of Wapnik and Tscherwonenkis (1979), these constructive bounds give rise to the Counterfactual Risk Minimization (CRM) principle. We show how CRM can be used to derive a new learning method--called Policy Optimizer for Exponential Models (POEM)--for learning stochastic linear rules for structured output prediction. We present a decomposition of the POEM objective that enables efficient stochastic gradient optimization. The effectiveness and efficiency of POEM is evaluated on several simulated multi-label classification problems, as well as on a real-world information retrieval problem. The empirical results show that the CRM objective implemented in POEM provides improved robustness and generalization performance compared to the state-of-the-art. This paper develops a declarative language, P-log, that combines logical and probabilistic arguments in its reasoning. Answer Set Prolog is used as the logical foundation, while causal Bayes nets serve as a probabilistic foundation. We give several non-trivial examples and illustrate the use of P-log for knowledge representation and updating of knowledge. We argue that our approach to updates is more appealing than existing approaches. We give sufficiency conditions for the coherency of P-log programs and show that Bayes nets can be easily mapped to coherent P-log programs. Learning representations for counterfactual inference from observational data is of high practical relevance for many domains, such as healthcare, public policy and economics. Counterfactual inference enables one to answer "What if...?" questions, such as "What would be the outcome if we gave this patient treatment @math ?". However, current methods for training neural networks for counterfactual inference on observational data are either overly complex, limited to settings with only two available treatment options, or both. Here, we present Perfect Match (PM), a method for training neural networks for counterfactual inference that is easy to implement, compatible with any architecture, does not add computational complexity or hyperparameters, and extends to any number of treatments. PM is based on the idea of augmenting samples within a minibatch with their propensity-matched nearest neighbours. Our experiments demonstrate that PM outperforms a number of more complex state-of-the-art methods in inferring counterfactual outcomes across several real-world and semi-synthetic datasets. Let X denote the feature and Y the target. We consider domain adaptation under three possible scenarios: (1) the marginal PY changes, while the conditional PX Y stays the same (target shift), (2) the marginal PY is fixed, while the conditional PX Y changes with certain constraints (conditional shift), and (3) the marginal PY changes, and the conditional PX Y changes with constraints (generalized target shift). Using background knowledge, causal interpretations allow us to determine the correct situation for a problem at hand. We exploit importance reweighting or sample transformation to find the learning machine that works well on test data, and propose to estimate the weights or transformations by reweighting or transforming training data to reproduce the covariate distribution on the test domain. Thanks to kernel embedding of conditional as well as marginal distributions, the proposed approaches avoid distribution estimation, and are applicable for high-dimensional problems. Numerical evaluations on synthetic and real-world data sets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework. With the rapid development of software and distributed computing, Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS) are widely adopted in many application areas, e.g., smart grid, autonomous automobile. It is difficult to detect defects in CPS models due to the complexities involved in the software and physical systems. To find defects in CPS models efficiently, robustness guided falsification of CPS is introduced. Existing methods use several optimization techniques to generate counterexamples, which falsify the given properties of a CPS. However those methods may require a large number of simulation runs to find the counterexample and are far from practical. In this work, we explore state-of-the-art Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) techniques to reduce the number of simulation runs required to find such counterexamples. We report our method and the preliminary evaluation results. Many real-world knowledge-based systems must deal with information coming from different sources that invariably leads to incompleteness, overspecification, or inherently uncertain content. The presence of these varying levels of uncertainty doesn't mean that the information is worthless --- rather, these are hurdles that the knowledge engineer must learn to work with. In this paper, we continue work on an argumentation-based framework that extends the well-known Defeasible Logic Programming (DeLP) language with probabilistic uncertainty, giving rise to the Defeasible Logic Programming with Presumptions and Probabilistic Environments (DeLP3E) model. Our prior work focused on the problem of belief revision in DeLP3E, where we proposed a non-prioritized class of revision operators called AFO (Annotation Function-based Operators) to solve this problem. In this paper, we further study this class and argue that in some cases it may be desirable to define revision operators that take quantitative aspects into account, such as how the probabilities of certain literals or formulas of interest change after the revision takes place. To the best of our knowledge, this problem has not been addressed in the argumentation literature to date. We propose the QAFO (Quantitative Annotation Function-based Operators) class of operators, a subclass of AFO, and then go on to study the complexity of several problems related to their specification and application in revising knowledge bases. Finally, we present an algorithm for computing the probability that a literal is warranted in a DeLP3E knowledge base, and discuss how it could be applied towards implementing QAFO-style operators that compute approximations rather than exact operations. This paper proposes a novel approach for constructing effective personalized policies when the observed data lacks counter-factual information, is biased and possesses many features. The approach is applicable in a wide variety of settings from healthcare to advertising to education to finance. These settings have in common that the decision maker can observe, for each previous instance, an array of features of the instance, the action taken in that instance, and the reward realized -- but not the rewards of actions that were not taken: the counterfactual information. Learning in such settings is made even more difficult because the observed data is typically biased by the existing policy (that generated the data) and because the array of features that might affect the reward in a particular instance -- and hence should be taken into account in deciding on an action in each particular instance -- is often vast. The approach presented here estimates propensity scores for the observed data, infers counterfactuals, identifies a (relatively small) number of features that are (most) relevant for each possible action and instance, and prescribes a policy to be followed. Comparison of the proposed algorithm against the state-of-art algorithm on actual datasets demonstrates that the proposed algorithm achieves a significant improvement in performance. Actions are more than just movements and trajectories: we cook to eat and we hold a cup to drink from it. A thorough understanding of videos requires going beyond appearance modeling and necessitates reasoning about the sequence of activities, as well as the higher-level constructs such as intentions. But how do we model and reason about these? We propose a fully-connected temporal CRF model for reasoning over various aspects of activities that includes objects, actions, and intentions, where the potentials are predicted by a deep network. End-to-end training of such structured models is a challenging endeavor: For inference and learning we need to construct mini-batches consisting of whole videos, leading to mini-batches with only a few videos. This causes high-correlation between data points leading to breakdown of the backprop algorithm. To address this challenge, we present an asynchronous variational inference method that allows efficient end-to-end training. Our method achieves a classification mAP of 22.4 on the Charades [42] benchmark, outperforming the state-of-the-art (17.2 mAP), and offers equal gains on the task of temporal localization. From doctors diagnosing patients to judges setting bail, experts often base their decisions on experience and intuition rather than on statistical models. While understandable, relying on intuition over models has often been found to result in inferior outcomes. Here we present a new method, select-regress-and-round, for constructing simple rules that perform well for complex decisions. These rules take the form of a weighted checklist, can be applied mentally, and nonetheless rival the performance of modern machine learning algorithms. Our method for creating these rules is itself simple, and can be carried out by practitioners with basic statistics knowledge. We demonstrate this technique with a detailed case study of judicial decisions to release or detain defendants while they await trial. In this application, as in many policy settings, the effects of proposed decision rules cannot be directly observed from historical data: if a rule recommends releasing a defendant that the judge in reality detained, we do not observe what would have happened under the proposed action. We address this key counterfactual estimation problem by drawing on tools from causal inference. We find that simple rules significantly outperform judges and are on par with decisions derived from random forests trained on all available features. Generalizing to 22 varied decision-making domains, we find this basic result replicates. We conclude with an analytical framework that helps explain why these simple decision rules perform as well as they do. Nowadays, business processes are increasingly supported by IT services that produce massive amounts of event data during the execution of a process. This event data can be used to analyze the process using process mining techniques to discover the real process, measure conformance to a given process model, or to enhance existing models with performance information. While it is essential to map the produced events to activities of a given process model for conformance analysis and process model annotation, it is also an important step for the straightforward interpretation of process discovery results. In order to accomplish this mapping with minimal manual effort, we developed a semi-automatic approach that maps events to activities using the solution of a corresponding constraint satisfaction problem. The approach extracts behavioral profiles from both the log and the model to build constraints to efficiently reduce the number of possible mappings. The evaluation with an industry process model collection and simulated event logs demonstrates the effectiveness of the approach and its robustness towards non-conforming execution logs. The resources allocated for software quality assurance and improvement have not increased with the ever-increasing need for better software quality. A targeted software quality inspection can detect faulty modules and reduce the number of faults occurring during operations. We present a software fault prediction modeling approach with case-based reasoning (CBR), a part of the computational intelligence field focusing on automated reasoning processes. A CBR system functions as a software fault prediction model by quantifying, for a module under development, the expected number of faults based on similar modules that were previously developed. Such a system is composed of a similarity function, the number of nearest neighbor cases used for fault prediction, and a solution algorithm. The selection of a particular similarity function and solution algorithm may affect the performance accuracy of a CBR-based software fault prediction system. This paper presents an empirical study investigating the effects of using three different similarity functions and two different solution algorithms on the prediction accuracy of our CBR system. The influence of varying the number of nearest neighbor cases on the performance accuracy is also explored. Moreover, the benefits of using metric-selection procedures for our CBR system is also evaluated. Case studies of a large legacy telecommunications system are used for our analysis. It is observed that the CBR system using the Mahalanobis distance similarity function and the inverse distance weighted solution algorithm yielded the best fault prediction. In addition, the CBR models have better performance than models based on multiple linear regression. Ideal hardware performance counters provide exact deterministic results. Real-world performance monitoring unit (PMU) implementations do not always live up to this ideal. Events that should be exact and deterministic (such as retired instructions) show run-to-run variation and overcount on ×86_64 machines, even when run in strictly controlled environments. These effects are non-intuitive to casual users and cause difficulties when strict determinism is desirable, such as when implementing deterministic replay or deterministic threading libraries. We investigate eleven different x86 64 CPU implementations and discover the sources of divergence from expected count totals. Of all the counter events investigated, we find only a few that exhibit enough determinism to be used without adjustment in deterministic execution environments. We also briefly investigate ARM, IA64, POWER and SPARC systems and find that on these platforms the counter events have more determinism. We explore various methods of working around the limitations of the ×86_64 events, but in many cases this is not possible and would require architectural redesign of the underlying PMU. Existing visual explanation generating agents learn to fluently justify a class prediction. However, they may mention visual attributes which reflect a strong class prior, although the evidence may not actually be in the image. This is particularly concerning as ultimately such agents fail in building trust with human users. To overcome this limitation, we propose a phrase-critic model to refine generated candidate explanations augmented with flipped phrases which we use as negative examples while training. At inference time, our phrase-critic model takes an image and a candidate explanation as input and outputs a score indicating how well the candidate explanation is grounded in the image. Our explainable AI agent is capable of providing counter arguments for an alternative prediction, i.e. counterfactuals, along with explanations that justify the correct classification decisions. Our model improves the textual explanation quality of fine-grained classification decisions on the CUB dataset by mentioning phrases that are grounded in the image. Moreover, on the FOIL tasks, our agent detects when there is a mistake in the sentence, grounds the incorrect phrase and corrects it significantly better than other models. Accelerating Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) on GPUs usually involves two stages: training and inference. Traditionally, this two-stage process is deployed on high-end GPU-equipped servers. Driven by the increase in compute power of desktop and mobile GPUs, there is growing interest in performing inference on various kinds of platforms. In contrast to the requirements of high throughput and accuracy during the training stage, end-users will face diverse requirements related to inference tasks. To address this emerging trend and new requirements, we propose Pervasive CNN (P-CNN), a user satisfaction-aware CNN inference framework. P-CNN is composed of two phases: cross-platform offline compilation and run-time management. Based on users' requirements, offline compilation generates the optimal kernel using architecture-independent techniques, such as adaptive batch size selection and coordinated fine-tuning. The runtime management phase consists of accuracy tuning, execution, and calibration. First, accuracy tuning dynamically identifies the fastest kernels with acceptable accuracy. Next, the run-time kernel scheduler partitions the optimal computing resource for each layer and schedules the GPU thread blocks. If its accuracy is not acceptable to the end-user, the calibration stage selects a slower but more precise kernel to improve the accuracy. Finally, we design a user satisfaction metric for CNNs to evaluate ourPervasive deign. Our evaluation results show P-CNN can provide the best user satisfaction for different inference tasks.