Methods to solve a node discovery problem for a social network are presented. Covert nodes refer to the nodes which are not observable directly. They transmit the influence and affect the resulting collaborative activities among the persons in a social network, but do not appear in the surveillance logs which record the participants of the collaborative activities. Discovering the covert nodes is identifying the suspicious logs where the covert nodes would appear if the covert nodes became overt. The performance of the methods is demonstrated with a test dataset generated from computationally synthesized networks and a real organization.
Research interests have been moving from describing organizational structure to discovering dynamical phenomena on a social network. A link discovery predicts the existence of an unknown link between two nodes from the information on the known attributes of the nodes and the known links @cite_13 . It is one of the tasks of link mining @cite_1 . The link discovery techniques are combined with domain-specific heuristics. The collaboration between scientists can be predicted from the published co-authorship @cite_22 . The friendship between people is inferred from the information available on their web pages @cite_21 .
@cite_1 @cite_21 @cite_13 @cite_22
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Link prediction is a complex, inherently relational, task. Be it in the domain of scientific citations, social networks or hypertext links, the underlying data are extremely noisy and the characteristics useful for prediction are not readily available in a “flat” file format, but rather involve complex relationships among objects. In this paper, we propose the application of our methodology for Statistical Relational Learning to building link prediction models. We propose an integrated approach to building regression models from data stored in relational databases in which potential predictors are generated by structured search of the space of queries to the database, and then tested for inclusion in a logistic regression. We present experimental results for the task of predicting citations made in scientific literature using relational data taken from CiteSeer. This data includes the citation graph, authorship and publication venues of papers, as well as their word content. The temporal dynamics of a complex system such as a social network or a communication network can be studied by understanding the patterns of link appearance and disappearance over time. A critical task along this understanding is to predict the link state of the network at a future time given a collection of link states at earlier time points. In existing literature, this task is known as link prediction in dynamic networks. Solving this task is more difficult than its counterpart in static networks because an effective feature representation of node-pair instances for the case of dynamic network is hard to obtain. To overcome this problem, we propose a novel method for metric embedding of node-pair instances of a dynamic network. The proposed method models the metric embedding task as an optimal coding problem where the objective is to minimize the reconstruction error, and it solves this optimization task using a gradient descent method. We validate the effectiveness of the learned feature representation by utilizing it for link prediction in various real-life dynamic networks. Specifically, we show that our proposed link prediction model, which uses the extracted feature representation for the training instances, outperforms several existing methods that use well-known link prediction features. One of the core tasks in social network analysis is to predict the formation of links (i.e. various types of relationships) over time. Previous research has generally represented the social network in the form of a graph and has leveraged topological and semantic measures of similarity between two nodes to evaluate the probability of link formation. Here we introduce a novel local probabilistic graphical model method that can scale to large graphs to estimate the joint co-occurrence probability of two nodes. Such a probability measure captures information that is not captured by either topological measures or measures of semantic similarity, which are the dominant measures used for link prediction. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the co-occurrence probability feature by using it both in isolation and in combination with other topological and semantic features for predicting co-authorship collaborations on real datasets. To reveal information hiding in link space of bibliographical networks, link analysis has been studied from different perspectives in recent years. In this paper, we address a novel problem namely citation prediction, that is: given information about authors, topics, target publication venues as well as time of certain research paper, finding and predicting the citation relationship between a query paper and a set of previous papers. Considering the gigantic size of relevant papers, the loosely connected citation network structure as well as the highly skewed citation relation distribution, citation prediction is more challenging than other link prediction problems which have been studied before. By building a meta-path based prediction model on a topic discriminative search space, we here propose a two-phase citation probability learning approach, in order to predict citation relationship effectively and efficiently. Experiments are performed on real-world dataset with comprehensive measurements, which demonstrate that our framework has substantial advantages over commonly used link prediction approaches in predicting citation relations in bibliographical networks. Predicting the existence of links between pairwise objects in networks is a key problem in the study of social networks. However, relationships among objects are often more complex than simple pairwise relations. By restricting attention to dyads, it is possible that information valuable for many learning tasks can be lost. The hypernetwork relaxes the assumption that only two nodes can participate in a link, permitting instead an arbitrary number of nodes to participate in so-called hyperlinks or hyperedges, which is a more natural representation for complex, multi-party relations. However, the hyperlink prediction problem has yet to be studied. In this paper, we propose HPLSF (Hyperlink Prediction using Latent Social Features), a hyperlink prediction algorithm for hypernetworks. By exploiting the homophily property of social networks, HPLSF explores social features for hyperlink prediction. To handle the problem that social features are not always observable, a latent social feature learning scheme is developed. To cope with the arbitrary cardinality hyperlink issue in hypernetworks, we design a feature-embedding scheme to map the a priori arbitrarily-sized feature set associated with each hyperlink into a uniformly-sized auxiliary space. To address the fact that observed features and latent features may be not independent, we generalize a structural SVM to learn using both observed features and latent features. In experiments, we evaluate the proposed HPLSF framework on three large-scale hypernetwork datasets. Our results on the three diverse datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the HPLSF algorithm. Although developed in the context of social networks, HPLSF is a general methodology and applies to arbitrary hypernetworks. The problem of predicting links or interactions between objects in a network, is an important task in network analysis. Along this line, link prediction between co-authors in a co-author network is a frequently studied problem. In most of these studies, authors are considered in a homogeneous network, .e., only one type of objects(author type) and one type of links (co-authorship) exist in the network. However, in a real bibliographic network, there are multiple types of objects ( .g., venues, topics, papers) and multiple types of links among these objects. In this paper, we study the problem of co-author relationship prediction in the heterogeneous bibliographic network, and a new methodology called, .e., meta path-based relationship prediction model, is proposed to solve this problem. First, meta path-based topological features are systematically extracted from the network. Then, a supervised model is used to learn the best weights associated with different topological features in deciding the co-author relationships. We present experiments on a real bibliographic network, the DBLP network, which show that metapath-based heterogeneous topological features can generate more accurate prediction results as compared to homogeneous topological features. In addition, the level of significance of each topological feature can be learned from the model, which is helpful in understanding the mechanism behind the relationship building. In this paper we discuss a very simple approach of combining content and link information in graph structures for the purpose of community discovery, a fundamental task in network analysis. Our approach hinges on the basic intuition that many networks contain noise in the link structure and that content information can help strengthen the community signal. This enables ones to eliminate the impact of noise (false positives and false negatives), which is particularly prevalent in online social networks and Web-scale information networks. Specifically we introduce a measure of signal strength between two nodes in the network by fusing their link strength with content similarity. Link strength is estimated based on whether the link is likely (with high probability) to reside within a community. Content similarity is estimated through cosine similarity or Jaccard coefficient. We discuss a simple mechanism for fusing content and link similarity. We then present a biased edge sampling procedure which retains edges that are locally relevant for each graph node. The resulting backbone graph can be clustered using standard community discovery algorithms such as Metis and Markov clustering. Through extensive experiments on multiple real-world datasets (Flickr, Wikipedia and CiteSeer) with varying sizes and characteristics, we demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our methods over state-of-the-art learning and mining approaches several of which also attempt to combine link and content analysis for the purposes of community discovery. Specifically we always find a qualitative benefit when combining content with link analysis. Additionally our biased graph sampling approach realizes a quantitative benefit in that it is typically several orders of magnitude faster than competing approaches. Predicting the occurrence of links is a fundamental problem in networks. In the link prediction problem we are given a snapshot of a network and would like to infer which interactions among existing members are likely to occur in the near future or which existing interactions are we missing. Although this problem has been extensively studied, the challenge of how to effectively combine the information from the network structure with rich node and edge attribute data remains largely open. We develop an algorithm based on Supervised Random Walks that naturally combines the information from the network structure with node and edge level attributes. We achieve this by using these attributes to guide a random walk on the graph. We formulate a supervised learning task where the goal is to learn a function that assigns strengths to edges in the network such that a random walker is more likely to visit the nodes to which new links will be created in the future. We develop an efficient training algorithm to directly learn the edge strength estimation function. Our experiments on the Facebook social graph and large collaboration networks show that our approach outperforms state-of-the-art unsupervised approaches as well as approaches that are based on feature extraction. Predicting the occurrence of links is a fundamental problem in networks. In the link prediction problem we are given a snapshot of a network and would like to infer which interactions among existing members are likely to occur in the near future or which existing interactions are we missing. Although this problem has been extensively studied, the challenge of how to effectively combine the information from the network structure with rich node and edge attribute data remains largely open. We develop an algorithm based on Supervised Random Walks that naturally combines the information from the network structure with node and edge level attributes. We achieve this by using these attributes to guide a random walk on the graph. We formulate a supervised learning task where the goal is to learn a function that assigns strengths to edges in the network such that a random walker is more likely to visit the nodes to which new links will be created in the future. We develop an efficient training algorithm to directly learn the edge strength estimation function. Our experiments on the Facebook social graph and large collaboration networks show that our approach outperforms state-of-the-art unsupervised approaches as well as approaches that are based on feature extraction. Link prediction is a task in Social Network Analysis that consists of predicting connections that are most likely to appear considering previous observed links in a social network. The majority of works in this area only performs the task by exploring the state of the network at a specific moment to make the prediction of new links, without considering the behavior of links as time goes by. In this light, we investigate if temporal information can bring any performance gain to the link prediction task. A traditional approach for link prediction uses a chosen topological similarity metric on non-connected pairs of nodes of the network at present time to obtain a score that is going to be used by an unsupervised or a supervised method for link prediction. Our approach initially consists of building time series for each pair of non-connected nodes by computing their similarity scores at different past times. Then, we deploy a forecasting model on these time series and use their forecasts as the final scores of the pairs. Our preliminary results using two link prediction methods (unsupervised and supervised) on co-authorship networks revealed satisfactory results when temporal information was considered. Prediction is one of the most attractive aspects in data mining. Link prediction has recently attracted the attention of many researchers as an effective technique to be used in graph based models in general and in particular for social network analysis due to the recent popularity of the field. Link prediction helps to understand associations between nodes in social communities. Existing link prediction-related approaches described in the literature are limited to predict links that are anticipated to exist in the future. To the best of our knowledge, none of the previous works in this area has explored the prediction of links that could disappear in the future. We argue that the latter set of links are important to know about; they are at least equally important as and do complement the positive link prediction process in order to plan better for the future. In this paper, we propose a link prediction model which is capable of predicting both links that might exist and links that may disappear in the future. The model has been successfully applied in two different though very related domains, namely health care and gene expression networks. The former application concentrates on physicians and their interactions while the second application covers genes and their interactions. We have tested our model using different classifiers and the reported results are encouraging. Finally, we compare our approach with the internal links approach and we reached the conclusion that our approach performs very well in both bipartite and non-bipartite graphs. Link prediction for knowledge graphs is the task of predicting missing relationships between entities. Previous work on link prediction has focused on shallow, fast models which can scale to large knowledge graphs. However, these models learn less expressive features than deep, multi-layer models -- which potentially limits performance. In this work, we introduce ConvE, a multi-layer convolutional network model for link prediction, and report state-of-the-art results for several established datasets. We also show that the model is highly parameter efficient, yielding the same performance as DistMult and R-GCN with 8x and 17x fewer parameters. Analysis of our model suggests that it is particularly effective at modelling nodes with high indegree -- which are common in highly-connected, complex knowledge graphs such as Freebase and YAGO3. In addition, it has been noted that the WN18 and FB15k datasets suffer from test set leakage, due to inverse relations from the training set being present in the test set -- however, the extent of this issue has so far not been quantified. We find this problem to be severe: a simple rule-based model can achieve state-of-the-art results on both WN18 and FB15k. To ensure that models are evaluated on datasets where simply exploiting inverse relations cannot yield competitive results, we investigate and validate several commonly used datasets -- deriving robust variants where necessary. We then perform experiments on these robust datasets for our own and several previously proposed models and find that ConvE achieves state-of-the-art Mean Reciprocal Rank across most datasets. Link prediction for knowledge graphs is the task of predicting missing relationships between entities. Previous work on link prediction has focused on shallow, fast models which can scale to large knowledge graphs. However, these models learn less expressive features than deep, multi-layer models - which potentially limits performance. In this work we introduce ConvE, a multi-layer convolutional network model for link prediction, and report state-of-the-art results for several established datasets. We also show that the model is highly parameter efficient, yielding the same performance as DistMult and R-GCN with 8x and 17x fewer parameters. Analysis of our model suggests that it is particularly effective at modelling nodes with high indegree - which are common in highly-connected, complex knowledge graphs such as Freebase and YAGO3. In addition, it has been noted that the WN18 and FB15k datasets suffer from test set leakage, due to inverse relations from the training set being present in the test set - however, the extent of this issue has so far not been quantified. We find this problem to be severe: a simple rule-based model can achieve state-of-the-art results on both WN18 and FB15k. To ensure that models are evaluated on datasets where simply exploiting inverse relations cannot yield competitive results, we investigate and validate several commonly used datasets - deriving robust variants where necessary. We then perform experiments on these robust datasets for our own and several previously proposed models, and find that ConvE achieves state-of-the-art Mean Reciprocal Rank across all datasets. Link prediction is a fundamental task in such areas as social network analysis, information retrieval, and bioinformatics. Usually link prediction methods use the link structures or node attributes as the sources of information. Recently, the relational topic model (RTM) and its variants have been proposed as hybrid methods that jointly model both sources of information and achieve very promising accuracy. However, the representations (features) learned by them are still not effective enough to represent the nodes (items). To address this problem, we generalize recent advances in deep learning from solely modeling i.i.d. sequences of attributes to jointly modeling graphs and non-i.i.d. sequences of attributes. Specifically, we follow the Bayesian deep learning framework and devise a hierarchical Bayesian model, called relational deep learning (RDL), to jointly model high-dimensional node attributes and link structures with layers of latent variables. Due to the multiple nonlinear transformations in RDL, standard variational inference is not applicable. We propose to utilize the product of Gaussians (PoG) structure in RDL to relate the inferences on different variables and derive a generalized variational inference algorithm for learning the variables and predicting the links. Experiments on three real-world datasets show that RDL works surprisingly well and significantly outperforms the state of the art. Online social networking sites have become increasingly popular over the last few years. As a result, new interdisciplinary research directions have emerged in which social network analysis methods are applied to networks containing hundreds millions of users. Unfortunately, links between individuals may be missing due to imperfect acquirement processes or because they are not yet reflected in the online network (i.e., friends in real world did not form a virtual connection.) Existing link prediction techniques lack the scalability required for full application on a continuously growing social network which may be adding everyday users with thousands of connections. The primary bottleneck in link prediction techniques is extracting structural features required for classifying links. In this paper we propose a set of simple, easy-to-compute structural features that can be analyzed to identify missing links. We show that a machine learning classifier trained using the proposed simple structural features can successfully identify missing links even when applied to a hard problem of classifying links between individuals who have at least one common friend. A new friends measure that we developed is shown to be a good predictor for missing links and an evaluation experiment was performed on five large social networks datasets: Face book, Flickr, You Tube, Academia and The Marker. Our methods can provide social network site operators with the capability of helping users to find known, offline contacts and to discover new friends online. They may also be used for exposing hidden links in an online social network. Link prediction, i.e., predicting links or interactions between objects in a network, is an important task in network analysis. Although the problem has attracted much attention recently, there are several challenges that have not been addressed so far. First, most existing studies focus only on link prediction in homogeneous networks, where all objects and links belong to the same type. However, in the real world, heterogeneous networks that consist of multi-typed objects and relationships are ubiquitous. Second, most current studies only concern the problem of whether a link will appear in the future but seldom pay attention to the problem of when it will happen. In this paper, we address both issues and study the problem of predicting when a certain relationship will happen in the scenario of heterogeneous networks. First, we extend the link prediction problem to the relationship prediction problem, by systematically defining both the target relation and the topological features, using a meta path-based approach. Then, we directly model the distribution of relationship building time with the use of the extracted topological features. The experiments on citation relationship prediction between authors on the DBLP network demonstrate the effectiveness of our methodology. The ability to predict linkages among data objects is central to many data mining tasks, such as product recommendation and social network analysis. Substantial literature has been devoted to the link prediction problem either as an implicitly embedded problem in specific applications or as a generic data mining task. This literature has mostly adopted a static graph representation where a snapshot of the network is analyzed to predict hidden or future links. However, this representation is only appropriate to investigate whether a certain link will ever occur and does not apply to many applications for which the prediction of the repeated link occurrences are of primary interest (e.g., communication network surveillance). In this paper, we introduce the time-series link prediction problem, taking into consideration temporal evolutions of link occurrences to predict link occurrence probabilities at a particular time. Using Enron e-mail data and high-energy particle physics literature coauthorship data, we have demonstrated that time-series models of single-link occurrences achieve comparable link prediction performance with commonly used static graph link prediction algorithms. Furthermore, a combination of static graph link prediction algorithms and time-series models produced significantly better predictions over static graph link prediction methods, demonstrating the great potential of integrated methods that exploit both interlink structural dependencies and intralink temporal dependencies. Much of the data of scientific interest, particularly when independence of data is not assumed, can be represented in the form of information networks where data nodes are joined together to form edges corresponding to some kind of associations or relationships. Such information networks abound, like protein interactions in biology, web page hyperlink connections in information retrieval on the Web, cellphone call graphs in telecommunication, co-authorships in bibliometrics, crime event connections in criminology, etc. All these networks, also known as social networks, share a common property, the formation of connected groups of information nodes, called community structures. These groups are densely connected nodes with sparse connections outside the group. Finding these communities is an important task for the discovery of underlying structures in social networks, and has recently attracted much attention in data mining research. In this paper, we present Top Leaders, a new community mining approach that, simply put, regards a community as a set of followers congregating around a potential leader. Our algorithm starts by identifying promising leaders in a given network then iteratively assembles followers to their closest leaders to form communities, and subsequently finds new leaders in each group around which to gather followers again until convergence. Our intuitions are based on proven observations in social networks and the results are very promising. Experimental results on benchmark networks verify the feasibility and eectiveness of our new community mining approach. Determining interrelatedness structure of various entities from multiple time series data is of significant interest to many areas. Knowledge of such a structure can aid in identifying cause and effect relationships, clustering of similar entities, identification of representative elements and model reduction. The majority of existing results are based on correlation based indices which effectively assume a static relationship between the time series data and are not suitable for detecting interrelatedness when the time series are dynamically related or when the time series involve loops. In this paper, a methodology for identifying the interrelatedness structure of dynamically related time series data is presented that also allows for the presence of loops in the connectivity structure. A linear dynamic graph model is presented where it is assumed that each time series data is the sum of an independent stochastic noise source and a dynamically weighted sum of other time series data. A link is assumed to be present between two time series if the weight of a time series, which is a linear time-invariant filter, is nonzero in the formation of the other. Reconstruction of the link connectivity structure under various scenarios is considered. It is shown that when the linear dynamic graph is allowed to admit non-causal weights, then the links structure can be recovered with the possibility of identifying spurious connections. However, it is shown that the spurious links remain local, where, a spurious link is restricted to be within one hop of a true link. Furthermore, strategies for exact reconstruction of the link structure when the weights are restricted to be causal are developed. The main tools for determining the network topology are based on variations of Wiener filtering. A significant insight provided by the article is that, in the class of network models considered in the paper, the Wiener filter estimating a stochastic process based on other processes remains local in the sense that the Wiener filter utilizes only measurements local to the node being estimated. A major problem in social network analysis and link discovery is the discovery of hidden organizational structure and selection of interesting influential members based on low-level, incomplete and noisy evidence data. To address such a challenge, we exploit an information theoretic model that combines information theory with statistical techniques from area of text mining and natural language processing. The Entropy model identifies the most interesting and important nodes in a graph. We show how entropy models on graphs are relevant to study of information flow in an organization. We review the results of two different experiments which are based on entropy models. The first version of this model has been successfully tested and evaluated on the Enron email dataset.