The energy output a photo voltaic(PV) panel is a function of solar irradiation and weather parameters like temperature and wind speed etc. A general measure for solar irradiation called Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI), customarily reported in Watt meter @math , is a generic indicator for this intermittent energy resource. An accurate prediction of GHI is necessary for reliable grid integration of the renewable as well as for power market trading. While some machine learning techniques are well introduced along with the traditional time-series forecasting techniques, deep-learning techniques remains less explored for the task at hand. In this paper we give deep learning models suitable for sequence to sequence prediction of GHI. The deep learning models are reported for short-term forecasting @math hour along with the state-of-the art techniques like Gradient Boosted Regression Trees(GBRT) and Feed Forward Neural Networks(FFNN). We have checked that spatio-temporal features like wind direction, wind speed and GHI of neighboring location improves the prediction accuracy of the deep learning models significantly. Among the various sequence-to-sequence encoder-decoder models LSTM performed superior, handling short-comings of the state-of-the-art techniques.
In deep learning encoder-decoder network using LSTM and RNN were first used for machine translation as a sequence-to-sequence learning problem, where length of the input and output sequence is not fixed. @cite_13 @cite_4 . However it was then applied to forecasting problems where the lengths were known, yet they are not reported to be used in solar irradiation forecasting so far. @cite_24 @cite_23 . In this paper we implement such model both with and without neighboring location.
@cite_24 @cite_23 @cite_13 @cite_4
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We introduce a novel schema for sequence to sequence learning with a Deep Q-Network (DQN), which decodes the output sequence iteratively. The aim here is to enable the decoder to first tackle easier portions of the sequences, and then turn to cope with difficult parts. Specifically, in each iteration, an encoder-decoder Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network is employed to, from the input sequence, automatically create features to represent the internal states of and formulate a list of potential actions for the DQN. Take rephrasing a natural sentence as an example. This list can contain ranked potential words. Next, the DQN learns to make decision on which action (e.g., word) will be selected from the list to modify the current decoded sequence. The newly modified output sequence is subsequently used as the input to the DQN for the next decoding iteration. In each iteration, we also bias the reinforcement learning's attention to explore sequence portions which are previously difficult to be decoded. For evaluation, the proposed strategy was trained to decode ten thousands natural sentences. Our experiments indicate that, when compared to a left-to-right greedy beam search LSTM decoder, the proposed method performed competitively well when decoding sentences from the training set, but significantly outperformed the baseline when decoding unseen sentences, in terms of BLEU score obtained. Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) and one of its specific architectures, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), have been widely used for sequence labeling. In this paper, we first enhance LSTM-based sequence labeling to explicitly model label dependencies. Then we propose another enhancement to incorporate the global information spanning over the whole input sequence. The latter proposed method, encoder-labeler LSTM, first encodes the whole input sequence into a fixed length vector with the encoder LSTM, and then uses this encoded vector as the initial state of another LSTM for sequence labeling. Combining these methods, we can predict the label sequence with considering label dependencies and information of whole input sequence. In the experiments of a slot filling task, which is an essential component of natural language understanding, with using the standard ATIS corpus, we achieved the state-of-the-art F1-score of 95.66 . The vector representations of fixed dimensionality for words (in text) offered by Word2Vec have been shown to be very useful in many application scenarios, in particular due to the semantic information they carry. This paper proposes a parallel version, the Audio Word2Vec. It offers the vector representations of fixed dimensionality for variable-length audio segments. These vector representations are shown to describe the sequential phonetic structures of the audio segments to a good degree, with very attractive real world applications such as query-by-example Spoken Term Detection (STD). In this STD application, the proposed approach significantly outperformed the conventional Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) based approaches at significantly lower computation requirements. We propose unsupervised learning of Audio Word2Vec from audio data without human annotation using Sequence-to-sequence Audoencoder (SA). SA consists of two RNNs equipped with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) units: the first RNN (encoder) maps the input audio sequence into a vector representation of fixed dimensionality, and the second RNN (decoder) maps the representation back to the input audio sequence. The two RNNs are jointly trained by minimizing the reconstruction error. Denoising Sequence-to-sequence Autoencoder (DSA) is furthered proposed offering more robust learning. Attentional sequence-to-sequence models have become the new standard for machine translation, but one challenge of such models is a significant increase in training and decoding cost compared to phrase-based systems. Here, we focus on efficient decoding, with a goal of achieving accuracy close the state-of-the-art in neural machine translation (NMT), while achieving CPU decoding speed throughput close to that of a phrasal decoder. We approach this problem from two angles: First, we describe several techniques for speeding up an NMT beam search decoder, which obtain a 4.4x speedup over a very efficient baseline decoder without changing the decoder output. Second, we propose a simple but powerful network architecture which uses an RNN (GRU LSTM) layer at bottom, followed by a series of stacked fully-connected layers applied at every timestep. This architecture achieves similar accuracy to a deep recurrent model, at a small fraction of the training and decoding cost. By combining these techniques, our best system achieves a very competitive accuracy of 38.3 BLEU on WMT English-French NewsTest2014, while decoding at 100 words sec on single-threaded CPU. We believe this is the best published accuracy speed trade-off of an NMT system. In this paper, we propose a novel neural network model called RNN Encoder-Decoder that consists of two recurrent neural networks (RNN). One RNN encodes a sequence of symbols into a fixed-length vector representation, and the other decodes the representation into another sequence of symbols. The encoder and decoder of the proposed model are jointly trained to maximize the conditional probability of a target sequence given a source sequence. The performance of a statistical machine translation system is empirically found to improve by using the conditional probabilities of phrase pairs computed by the RNN Encoder-Decoder as an additional feature in the existing log-linear model. Qualitatively, we show that the proposed model learns a semantically and syntactically meaningful representation of linguistic phrases. In this paper, we propose a novel neural network model called RNN Encoder‐ Decoder that consists of two recurrent neural networks (RNN). One RNN encodes a sequence of symbols into a fixedlength vector representation, and the other decodes the representation into another sequence of symbols. The encoder and decoder of the proposed model are jointly trained to maximize the conditional probability of a target sequence given a source sequence. The performance of a statistical machine translation system is empirically found to improve by using the conditional probabilities of phrase pairs computed by the RNN Encoder‐Decoder as an additional feature in the existing log-linear model. Qualitatively, we show that the proposed model learns a semantically and syntactically meaningful representation of linguistic phrases. Attentional, RNN-based encoder-decoder models for abstractive summarization have achieved good performance on short input and output sequences. For longer documents and summaries however these models often include repetitive and incoherent phrases. We introduce a neural network model with a novel intra-attention that attends over the input and continuously generated output separately, and a new training method that combines standard supervised word prediction and reinforcement learning (RL). Models trained only with supervised learning often exhibit "exposure bias" - they assume ground truth is provided at each step during training. However, when standard word prediction is combined with the global sequence prediction training of RL the resulting summaries become more readable. We evaluate this model on the CNN Daily Mail and New York Times datasets. Our model obtains a 41.16 ROUGE-1 score on the CNN Daily Mail dataset, an improvement over previous state-of-the-art models. Human evaluation also shows that our model produces higher quality summaries. The approach of training sequence models using supervised learning and next-step prediction suffers from known failure modes. For example, it is notoriously difficult to ensure multi-step generated sequences have coherent global structure. We propose a novel sequence-learning approach in which we use a pre-trained Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) to supply part of the reward value in a Reinforcement Learning (RL) model. Thus, we can refine a sequence predictor by optimizing for some imposed reward functions, while maintaining good predictive properties learned from data. We propose efficient ways to solve this by augmenting deep Q-learning with a cross-entropy reward and deriving novel off-policy methods for RNNs from KL control. We explore the usefulness of our approach in the context of music generation. An LSTM is trained on a large corpus of songs to predict the next note in a musical sequence. This Note RNN is then refined using our method and rules of music theory. We show that by combining maximum likelihood (ML) and RL in this way, we can not only produce more pleasing melodies, but significantly reduce unwanted behaviors and failure modes of the RNN, while maintaining information learned from data. We have recently shown that deep Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks (RNNs) outperform feed forward deep neural networks (DNNs) as acoustic models for speech recognition. More recently, we have shown that the performance of sequence trained context dependent (CD) hidden Markov model (HMM) acoustic models using such LSTM RNNs can be equaled by sequence trained phone models initialized with connectionist temporal classification (CTC). In this paper, we present techniques that further improve performance of LSTM RNN acoustic models for large vocabulary speech recognition. We show that frame stacking and reduced frame rate lead to more accurate models and faster decoding. CD phone modeling leads to further improvements. We also present initial results for LSTM RNN models outputting words directly. Recurrent neural networks (RNNs), such as long short-term memory networks (LSTMs), serve as a fundamental building block for many sequence learning tasks, including machine translation, language modeling, and question answering. In this paper, we consider the specific problem of word-level language modeling and investigate strategies for regularizing and optimizing LSTM-based models. We propose the weight-dropped LSTM which uses DropConnect on hidden-to-hidden weights as a form of recurrent regularization. Further, we introduce NT-ASGD, a variant of the averaged stochastic gradient method, wherein the averaging trigger is determined using a non-monotonic condition as opposed to being tuned by the user. Using these and other regularization strategies, we achieve state-of-the-art word level perplexities on two data sets: 57.3 on Penn Treebank and 65.8 on WikiText-2. In exploring the effectiveness of a neural cache in conjunction with our proposed model, we achieve an even lower state-of-the-art perplexity of 52.8 on Penn Treebank and 52.0 on WikiText-2. Sequence prediction and classification are ubiquitous and challenging problems in machine learning that can require identifying complex dependencies between temporally distant inputs. Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) have the ability, in theory, to cope with these temporal dependencies by virtue of the short-term memory implemented by their recurrent (feedback) connections. However, in practice they are difficult to train successfully when long-term memory is required. This paper introduces a simple, yet powerful modification to the simple RNN (SRN) architecture, the Clockwork RNN (CW-RNN), in which the hidden layer is partitioned into separate modules, each processing inputs at its own temporal granularity, making computations only at its prescribed clock rate. Rather than making the standard RNN models more complex, CW-RNN reduces the number of SRN parameters, improves the performance significantly in the tasks tested, and speeds up the network evaluation. The network is demonstrated in preliminary experiments involving three tasks: audio signal generation, TIMIT spoken word classification, where it outperforms both SRN and LSTM networks, and online handwriting recognition, where it outperforms SRNs. In this work, we cast text summarization as a sequence-to-sequence problem and apply the attentional encoder-decoder RNN that has been shown to be successful for Machine Translation ( (2014)). Our experiments show that the proposed architecture significantly outperforms the state-of-the art model of (2015) on the Gigaword dataset without any additional tuning. We also propose additional extensions to the standard architecture, which we show contribute to further improvement in performance. We explore alternative acoustic modeling techniques for large vocabulary speech recognition using Long Short-Term Memory recurrent neural networks. For an acoustic frame labeling task, we compare the conventional approach of cross-entropy (CE) training using fixed forced-alignments of frames and labels, with the Connectionist Temporal Classification (CTC) method proposed for labeling unsegmented sequence data. We demonstrate that the latter can be implemented with finite state transducers. We experiment with phones and context dependent HMM states as acoustic modeling units. We also investigate the effect of context in acoustic input by training unidirectional and bidirectional LSTM RNN models. We show that a bidirectional LSTM RNN CTC model using phone units can perform as well as an LSTM RNN model trained with CE using HMM state alignments. Finally, we also show the effect of sequence discriminative training on these models and show the first results for sMBR training of CTC models. Even though a linguistics-free sequence to sequence model in neural machine translation (NMT) has certain capability of implicitly learning syntactic information of source sentences, this paper shows that source syntax can be explicitly incorporated into NMT effectively to provide further improvements. Specifically, we linearize parse trees of source sentences to obtain structural label sequences. On the basis, we propose three different sorts of encoders to incorporate source syntax into NMT: 1) Parallel RNN encoder that learns word and label annotation vectors parallelly; 2) Hierarchical RNN encoder that learns word and label annotation vectors in a two-level hierarchy; and 3) Mixed RNN encoder that stitchingly learns word and label annotation vectors over sequences where words and labels are mixed. Experimentation on Chinese-to-English translation demonstrates that all the three proposed syntactic encoders are able to improve translation accuracy. It is interesting to note that the simplest RNN encoder, i.e., Mixed RNN encoder yields the best performance with an significant improvement of 1.4 BLEU points. Moreover, an in-depth analysis from several perspectives is provided to reveal how source syntax benefits NMT. Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) are powerful models that have achieved excellent performance on difficult learning tasks. Although DNNs work well whenever large labeled training sets are available, they cannot be used to map sequences to sequences. In this paper, we present a general end-to-end approach to sequence learning that makes minimal assumptions on the sequence structure. Our method uses a multilayered Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) to map the input sequence to a vector of a fixed dimensionality, and then another deep LSTM to decode the target sequence from the vector. Our main result is that on an English to French translation task from the WMT'14 dataset, the translations produced by the LSTM achieve a BLEU score of 34.8 on the entire test set, where the LSTM's BLEU score was penalized on out-of-vocabulary words. Additionally, the LSTM did not have difficulty on long sentences. For comparison, a phrase-based SMT system achieves a BLEU score of 33.3 on the same dataset. When we used the LSTM to rerank the 1000 hypotheses produced by the aforementioned SMT system, its BLEU score increases to 36.5, which is close to the previous best result on this task. The LSTM also learned sensible phrase and sentence representations that are sensitive to word order and are relatively invariant to the active and the passive voice. Finally, we found that reversing the order of the words in all source sentences (but not target sentences) improved the LSTM's performance markedly, because doing so introduced many short term dependencies between the source and the target sentence which made the optimization problem easier. Sequence prediction and classification are ubiquitous and challenging problems in machine learning that can require identifying complex dependencies between temporally distant inputs. Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) have the ability, in theory, to cope with these temporal dependencies by virtue of the short-term memory implemented by their recurrent (feedback) connections. However, in practice they are difficult to train successfully when the long-term memory is required. This paper introduces a simple, yet powerful modification to the standard RNN architecture, the Clockwork RNN (CW-RNN), in which the hidden layer is partitioned into separate modules, each processing inputs at its own temporal granularity, making computations only at its prescribed clock rate. Rather than making the standard RNN models more complex, CW-RNN reduces the number of RNN parameters, improves the performance significantly in the tasks tested, and speeds up the network evaluation. The network is demonstrated in preliminary experiments involving two tasks: audio signal generation and TIMIT spoken word classification, where it outperforms both RNN and LSTM networks. Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) are powerful models that have achieved excellent performance on difficult learning tasks. Although DNNs work well whenever large labeled training sets are available, they cannot be used to map sequences to sequences. In this paper, we present a general end-to-end approach to sequence learning that makes minimal assumptions on the sequence structure. Our method uses a multilayered Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) to map the input sequence to a vector of a fixed dimensionality, and then another deep LSTM to decode the target sequence from the vector. Our main result is that on an English to French translation task from the WMT-14 dataset, the translations produced by the LSTM achieve a BLEU score of 34.8 on the entire test set, where the LSTM's BLEU score was penalized on out-of-vocabulary words. Additionally, the LSTM did not have difficulty on long sentences. For comparison, a phrase-based SMT system achieves a BLEU score of 33.3 on the same dataset. When we used the LSTM to rerank the 1000 hypotheses produced by the aforementioned SMT system, its BLEU score increases to 36.5, which is close to the previous state of the art. The LSTM also learned sensible phrase and sentence representations that are sensitive to word order and are relatively invariant to the active and the passive voice. Finally, we found that reversing the order of the words in all source sentences (but not target sentences) improved the LSTM's performance markedly, because doing so introduced many short term dependencies between the source and the target sentence which made the optimization problem easier. We investigate training end-to-end speech recognition models with the recurrent neural network transducer (RNN-T): a streaming, all-neural, sequence-to-sequence architecture which jointly learns acoustic and language model components from transcribed acoustic data. We explore various model architectures and demonstrate how the model can be improved further if additional text or pronunciation data are available. The model consists of an ‘encoder’, which is initialized from a connectionist temporal classification-based (CTC) acoustic model, and a ‘decoder’ which is partially initialized from a recurrent neural network language model trained on text data alone. The entire neural network is trained with the RNN-T loss and directly outputs the recognized transcript as a sequence of graphemes, thus performing end-to-end speech recognition. We find that performance can be improved further through the use of sub-word units ('wordpieces') which capture longer context and significantly reduce substitution errors. The best RNN-T system, a twelve-layer LSTM encoder with a two-layer LSTM decoder trained with 30,000 wordpieces as output targets achieves a word error rate of 8.5 on voice-search and 5.2 on voice-dictation tasks and is comparable to a state-of-the-art baseline at 8.3 on voice-search and 5.4 voice-dictation. We propose a neural sequence-to-sequence model for direction following, a task that is essential to realizing effective autonomous agents. Our alignment-based encoder-decoder model with long short-term memory recurrent neural networks (LSTM-RNN) translates natural language instructions to action sequences based upon a representation of the observable world state. We introduce a multi-level aligner that empowers our model to focus on sentence "regions" salient to the current world state by using multiple abstractions of the input sentence. In contrast to existing methods, our model uses no specialized linguistic resources (e.g., parsers) or task-specific annotations (e.g., seed lexicons). It is therefore generalizable, yet still achieves the best results reported to-date on a benchmark single-sentence dataset and competitive results for the limited-training multi-sentence setting. We analyze our model through a series of ablations that elucidate the contributions of the primary components of our model. Sequence-to-sequence deep learning has recently emerged as a new paradigm in supervised learning for spoken language understanding. However, most of the previous studies explored this framework for building single domain models for each task, such as slot filling or domain classification, comparing deep learning based approaches with conventional ones like conditional random fields. This paper proposes a holistic multi-domain, multi-task (i.e. slot filling, domain and intent detection) modeling approach to estimate complete semantic frames for all user utterances addressed to a conversational system, demonstrating the distinctive power of deep learning methods, namely bi-directional recurrent neural network (RNN) with long-short term memory (LSTM) cells (RNN-LSTM) to handle such complexity. The contributions of the presented work are three-fold: (i) we propose an RNN-LSTM architecture for joint modeling of slot filling, intent determination, and domain classification; (ii) we build a joint multi-domain model enabling multi-task deep learning where the data from each domain reinforces each other; (iii) we investigate alternative architectures for modeling lexical context in spoken language understanding. In addition to the simplicity of the single model framework, experimental results show the power of such an approach on Microsoft Cortana real user data over alternative methods based on single domain task deep learning.