Networks extracted from social media platforms frequently include multiple types of links that dynamically change over time; these links can be used to represent dyadic interactions such as economic transactions, communications, and shared activities. Organizing this data into a dynamic multiplex network, where each layer is composed of a single edge type linking the same underlying vertices, can reveal interesting cross-layer interaction patterns. In coevolving networks, links in one layer result in an increased probability of other types of links forming between the same node pair. Hence we believe that a holistic approach in which all the layers are simultaneously considered can outperform a factored approach in which link prediction is performed separately in each layer. This paper introduces a comprehensive framework, MLP (Multilayer Link Prediction), in which link existence likelihoods for the target layer are learned from the other network layers. These likelihoods are used to reweight the output of a single layer link prediction method that uses rank aggregation to combine a set of topological metrics. Our experiments show that our reweighting procedure outperforms other methods for fusing information across network layers.
Conversely, there are a number of approaches that ignore cross-layer network dependencies, while using the history of changes between snapshots to predict future network dynamics. We have experimented with two types of techniques: time series forecasting @cite_20 @cite_6 and decay models @cite_21 . Soares and Prud ^ e ncio @cite_6 investigated the use of time series within both supervised and unsupervised link prediction frameworks. The core concept of their approach is that it is possible to predict the future values of topological metrics with time series; these values can either be used in an unsupervised fashion or combined in a supervised way with a classifier. In previous work, we introduced a rate prediction model @cite_20 that uses time series to predict the rate of link formation. Our proposed framework, , both models the rate of link formation in each layer and uses a decay model to account for changes in the topological metrics over time. In our results, we compare the improvements achieved by temporal vs. cross-layer modeling.
@cite_21 @cite_6 @cite_20
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Determining interrelatedness structure of various entities from multiple time series data is of significant interest to many areas. Knowledge of such a structure can aid in identifying cause and effect relationships, clustering of similar entities, identification of representative elements and model reduction. The majority of existing results are based on correlation based indices which effectively assume a static relationship between the time series data and are not suitable for detecting interrelatedness when the time series are dynamically related or when the time series involve loops. In this paper, a methodology for identifying the interrelatedness structure of dynamically related time series data is presented that also allows for the presence of loops in the connectivity structure. A linear dynamic graph model is presented where it is assumed that each time series data is the sum of an independent stochastic noise source and a dynamically weighted sum of other time series data. A link is assumed to be present between two time series if the weight of a time series, which is a linear time-invariant filter, is nonzero in the formation of the other. Reconstruction of the link connectivity structure under various scenarios is considered. It is shown that when the linear dynamic graph is allowed to admit non-causal weights, then the links structure can be recovered with the possibility of identifying spurious connections. However, it is shown that the spurious links remain local, where, a spurious link is restricted to be within one hop of a true link. Furthermore, strategies for exact reconstruction of the link structure when the weights are restricted to be causal are developed. The main tools for determining the network topology are based on variations of Wiener filtering. A significant insight provided by the article is that, in the class of network models considered in the paper, the Wiener filter estimating a stochastic process based on other processes remains local in the sense that the Wiener filter utilizes only measurements local to the node being estimated. We propose a simple discrete time semi-supervised graph embedding approach to link prediction in dynamic networks. The learned embedding reflects information from both the temporal and cross-sectional network structures, which is performed by defining the loss function as a weighted sum of the supervised loss from past dynamics and the unsupervised loss of predicting the neighborhood context in the current network. Our model is also capable of learning different embeddings for both formation and dissolution dynamics. These key aspects contributes to the predictive performance of our model and we provide experiments with three real--world dynamic networks showing that our method is comparable to state of the art methods in link formation prediction and outperforms state of the art baseline methods in link dissolution prediction. textabstractForecasting financial time series using past observations has been a significant topic of interest. While temporal relationships in the data exist, they are difficult to analyze and predict accurately due to the non-linear trends and noise present in the series. We propose to learn these dependencies by a convolutional neural network. In particular the focus is on multivariate time series forecasting. Effectively, we use multiple financial time series as input in the neural network, thus conditioning the forecast of a time series x(t) on both its own history as well as that of a second (or third) time series y(t). Training a model on multiple stock series allows the network to exploit the correlation structure between these series so that the network can learn the market dynamics in shorter sequences of data. We show that long-term temporal dependencies in and between financial time series can be learned by means of a deep convolutional neural network based on the WaveNet model [2]. The network makes use of dilated convolutions applied to multiple time series so that the receptive field of the network is wide enough to learn both short and long-term dependencies. The architecture includes batch normalization and uses a 1 × k convolution with parametrized skip connections from the input time series as well as the time series we condition on, in this way learning long-term interdependencies in an efficient manner [1]. This improves the forecast, while at the same time limiting the requirement for a long historical price series and reducing the noise. Knowing the strong performance of CNNs on classification problems we show that they can be applied successfully to forecasting financial time series, without the need of large samples of data. We compare the performance of the WaveNet model to a state-of-the-art fully convolutional network (FCN), and an autoregressive model popular in econometrics and show that our model is much better able to learn important dependencies in between financial time series resulting in a more robust and accurate forecast. The temporal dynamics of a complex system such as a social network or a communication network can be studied by understanding the patterns of link appearance and disappearance over time. A critical task along this understanding is to predict the link state of the network at a future time given a collection of link states at earlier time points. In existing literature, this task is known as link prediction in dynamic networks. Solving this task is more difficult than its counterpart in static networks because an effective feature representation of node-pair instances for the case of dynamic network is hard to obtain. To overcome this problem, we propose a novel method for metric embedding of node-pair instances of a dynamic network. The proposed method models the metric embedding task as an optimal coding problem where the objective is to minimize the reconstruction error, and it solves this optimization task using a gradient descent method. We validate the effectiveness of the learned feature representation by utilizing it for link prediction in various real-life dynamic networks. Specifically, we show that our proposed link prediction model, which uses the extracted feature representation for the training instances, outperforms several existing methods that use well-known link prediction features. Time varying problems usually have complex underlying structures represented as dynamic networks where entities and relationships appear and disappear over time. The problem of efficiently performing dynamic link inference is extremely challenging due to the dynamic nature in massive evolving networks especially when there exist sparse connectivities and nonlinear transitional patterns. In this paper, we propose a novel deep learning framework, i.e., Conditional Temporal Restricted Boltzmann Machine (ctRBM), which predicts links based on individual transition variance as well as influence introduced by local neighbors. The proposed model is robust to noise and have the exponential capability to capture nonlinear variance. We tackle the computational challenges by developing an efficient algorithm for learning and inference of the proposed model. To improve the efficiency of the approach, we give a faster approximated implementation based on a proposed Neighbor Influence Clustering algorithm. Extensive experiments on simulated as well as real-world dynamic networks show that the proposed method outperforms existing algorithms in link inference on dynamic networks. In this paper, we make two contributions to unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA) using the convolutional neural network (CNN). First, our approach transfers knowledge in all the convolutional layers through attention alignment. Most previous methods align high-level representations, e.g., activations of the fully connected (FC) layers. In these methods, however, the convolutional layers which underpin critical low-level domain knowledge cannot be updated directly towards reducing domain discrepancy. Specifically, we assume that the discriminative regions in an image are relatively invariant to image style changes. Based on this assumption, we propose an attention alignment scheme on all the target convolutional layers to uncover the knowledge shared by the source domain. Second, we estimate the posterior label distribution of the unlabeled data for target network training. Previous methods, which iteratively update the pseudo labels by the target network and refine the target network by the updated pseudo labels, are vulnerable to label estimation errors. Instead, our approach uses category distribution to calculate the cross-entropy loss for training, thereby ameliorating the error accumulation of the estimated labels. The two contributions allow our approach to outperform the state-of-the-art methods by +2.6 on the Office-31 dataset. Feedforward multilayer networks trained by supervised learning have recently demonstrated state of the art performance on image labeling problems such as boundary prediction and scene parsing. As even very low error rates can limit practical usage of such systems, methods that perform closer to human accuracy remain desirable. In this work, we propose a new type of network with the following properties that address what we hypothesize to be limiting aspects of existing methods: (1) a wide' structure with thousands of features, (2) a large field of view, (3) recursive iterations that exploit statistical dependencies in label space, and (4) a parallelizable architecture that can be trained in a fraction of the time compared to benchmark multilayer convolutional networks. For the specific image labeling problem of boundary prediction, we also introduce a novel example weighting algorithm that improves segmentation accuracy. Experiments in the challenging domain of connectomic reconstruction of neural circuity from 3d electron microscopy data show that these "Deep And Wide Multiscale Recursive" (DAWMR) networks lead to new levels of image labeling performance. The highest performing architecture has twelve layers, interwoven supervised and unsupervised stages, and uses an input field of view of 157,464 voxels ( @math ) to make a prediction at each image location. We present an associated open source software package that enables the simple and flexible creation of DAWMR networks. The ability to predict linkages among data objects is central to many data mining tasks, such as product recommendation and social network analysis. Substantial literature has been devoted to the link prediction problem either as an implicitly embedded problem in specific applications or as a generic data mining task. This literature has mostly adopted a static graph representation where a snapshot of the network is analyzed to predict hidden or future links. However, this representation is only appropriate to investigate whether a certain link will ever occur and does not apply to many applications for which the prediction of the repeated link occurrences are of primary interest (e.g., communication network surveillance). In this paper, we introduce the time-series link prediction problem, taking into consideration temporal evolutions of link occurrences to predict link occurrence probabilities at a particular time. Using Enron e-mail data and high-energy particle physics literature coauthorship data, we have demonstrated that time-series models of single-link occurrences achieve comparable link prediction performance with commonly used static graph link prediction algorithms. Furthermore, a combination of static graph link prediction algorithms and time-series models produced significantly better predictions over static graph link prediction methods, demonstrating the great potential of integrated methods that exploit both interlink structural dependencies and intralink temporal dependencies. Abstract Many networks derived from society and nature are temporal and incomplete. The temporal link prediction problem in networks is to predict links at time T + 1 based on a given temporal network from time 1 to T , which is essential to important applications. The current algorithms either predict the temporal links by collapsing the dynamic networks or collapsing features derived from each network, which are criticized for ignoring the connection among slices. to overcome the issue, we propose a novel graph regularized nonnegative matrix factorization algorithm (GrNMF) for the temporal link prediction problem without collapsing the dynamic networks. To obtain the feature for each network from 1 to t , GrNMF factorizes the matrix associated with networks by setting the rest networks as regularization, which provides a better way to characterize the topological information of temporal links. Then, the GrNMF algorithm collapses the feature matrices to predict temporal links. Compared with state-of-the-art methods, the proposed algorithm exhibits significantly improved accuracy by avoiding the collapse of temporal networks. Experimental results of a number of artificial and real temporal networks illustrate that the proposed method is not only more accurate but also more robust than state-of-the-art approaches. Temporal networks come with a wide variety of heterogeneities, from burstiness of event sequences to correlations between timings of node and link activations. In this paper, we set to explore the latter by using temporal greedy walks as probes of temporal network structure. Given a temporal network (a sequence of contacts), temporal greedy walks proceed from node to node by always following the first available contact. Because of this, their structure is particularly sensitive to temporal-topological patterns involving repeated contacts between sets of nodes. This becomes evident in their small coverage per step taken as compared to a temporal reference model – in empirical temporal networks, greedy walks often get stuck within small sets of nodes because of correlated contact patterns. While this may also happen in static networks that have pronounced community structure, the use of the temporal reference model takes the underlying static network structure out of the equation and indicates that there is a purely temporal reason for the observations. Further analysis of the structure of greedy walks indicates that burst trains, sequences of repeated contacts between node pairs, are the dominant factor. However, there are larger patterns too, as shown with non-backtracking greedy walks. We proceed further to study the entropy rates of greedy walks, and show that the sequences of visited nodes are more structured and predictable in original data as compared to temporally uncorrelated references. Taken together, these results indicate a richness of correlated temporal-topological patterns in temporal networks. Time series data mining has received much greater interest along with the increase in temporal data sets from different domains such as medicine, finance, multimedia, etc. Representations are important to reduce dimensionality and generate useful similarity measures. High-level representations such as Fourier transforms, wavelets, piecewise polynomial models, etc., were considered previously. Recently, autoregressive kernels were introduced to reflect the similarity of the time series. We introduce a novel approach to model the dependency structure in time series that generalizes the concept of autoregression to local autopatterns. Our approach generates a pattern-based representation along with a similarity measure called learned pattern similarity (LPS). A tree-based ensemble-learning strategy that is fast and insensitive to parameter settings is the basis for the approach. Then, a robust similarity measure based on the learned patterns is presented. This unsupervised approach to represent and measure the similarity between time series generally applies to a number of data mining tasks (e.g., clustering, anomaly detection, classification). Furthermore, an embedded learning of the representation avoids pre-defined features and an extraction step which is common in some feature-based approaches. The method generalizes in a straightforward manner to multivariate time series. The effectiveness of LPS is evaluated on time series classification problems from various domains. We compare LPS to eleven well-known similarity measures. Our experimental results show that LPS provides fast and competitive results on benchmark datasets from several domains. Furthermore, LPS provides a research direction and template approach that breaks from the linear dependency models to potentially foster other promising nonlinear approaches. We propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach to the problem of jointly modeling multiple related time series. Our model discovers a latent set of dynamical behaviors shared among the sequences, and segments each time series into regions defined by a subset of these behaviors. Using a beta process prior, the size of the behavior set and the sharing pattern are both inferred from data. We develop Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods based on the Indian buffet process representation of the predictive distribution of the beta process. Our MCMC inference algorithm efficiently adds and removes behaviors via novel split-merge moves as well as data-driven birth and death proposals, avoiding the need to consider a truncated model. We demonstrate promising results on unsupervised segmentation of human motion capture data. 1. Introduction. Classical time series analysis has generally focused on the study of a single (potentially multivariate) time series. Instead, we consider analyzing collections of related time series, motivated by the increasing abundance of such data in many domains. In this work we explore this problem by considering time series produced by motion capture sensors on the joints of people performing exercise routines. An individual recording provides a multivariate time series that can be segmented into types of exercises (e.g., jumping jacks, arm-circles, and twists). Each exercise type describes locally coherent and simple dynamics that persist over a segment of time. We have such motion capture recordings from multiple individuals, each of whom performs some subset of a global set of exercises, as shown in Figure1. Our goal is to discover the set of global exercise types (“behaviors”) and their occurrences in each individual’s data stream. We would like to take advantage of the overlap between individuals: if a jumping-jack behavior is discovered in one sequence, then it can be used to model data for other individuals. Deep convolutional networks have achieved successful performance in data mining field. However, training large networks still remains a challenge, as the training data may be insufficient and the model can easily get overfitted. Hence the training process is usually combined with a model regularization. Typical regularizers include weight decay, Dropout, etc. In this paper, we propose a novel regularizer, named Structured Decorrelation Constraint (SDC), which is applied to the activations of the hidden layers to prevent overfitting and achieve better generalization. SDC impels the network to learn structured representations by grouping the hidden units and encouraging the units within the same group to have strong connections during the training procedure. Meanwhile, it forces the units in different groups to learn non-redundant representations by minimizing the cross-covariance between them. Compared with Dropout, SDC reduces the co-adaptions between the hidden units in an explicit way. Besides, we propose a novel approach called Reg-Conv that can help SDC to regularize the complex convolutional layers. Experiments on extensive datasets show that SDC significantly reduces overfitting and yields very meaningful improvements on classification performance (on CIFAR-10 6.22 accuracy promotion and on CIFAR-100 9.63 promotion). In this paper we address the problem of temporal link prediction, i.e., predicting the apparition of new links, in time-evolving networks. This problem appears in applications such as recommender systems, social network analysis or citation analysis. Link prediction in time-evolving networks is usually based on the topological structure of the network only. We propose here a model which exploits multiple information sources in the network in order to predict link occurrence probabilities as a function of time. The model integrates three types of information: the global network structure, the content of nodes in the network if any, and the local or proximity information of a given vertex. The proposed model is based on a matrix factorization formulation of the problem with graph regularization. We derive an efficient optimization method to learn the latent factors of this model. Extensive experiments on several real world datasets suggest that our unified framework outperforms state-of-the-art methods for temporal link prediction tasks. This paper considers jointly optimal design of crosslayer congestion control, routing and scheduling for ad hoc wireless networks. We first formulate the rate constraint and scheduling constraint using multicommodity flow variables, and formulate resource allocation in networks with fixed wireless channels (or single-rate wireless devices that can mask channel variations) as a utility maximization problem with these constraints. By dual decomposition, the resource allocation problem naturally decomposes into three subproblems: congestion control, routing and scheduling that interact through congestion price. The global convergence property of this algorithm is proved. We next extend the dual algorithm to handle networks with timevarying channels and adaptive multi-rate devices. The stability of the resulting system is established, and its performance is characterized with respect to an ideal reference system which has the best feasible rate region at link layer. We then generalize the aforementioned results to a general model of queueing network served by a set of interdependent parallel servers with time-varying service capabilities, which models many design problems in communication networks. We show that for a general convex optimization problem where a subset of variables lie in a polytope and the rest in a convex set, the dual-based algorithm remains stable and optimal when the constraint set is modulated by an irreducible finite-state Markov chain. This paper thus presents a step toward a systematic way to carry out cross-layer design in the framework of “layering as optimization decomposition” for time-varying channel models. Based on the empirical analysis of the dependency network in 18 Java projects, we develop a novel model of network growth which considersboth: an attachment mechanism and the addition of new nodes with a heterogeneous distribution of their initial degree, k0. Empirically we find that the cumulative degree distributions of initial degrees and of the final network, follow power-law behaviors: P(k0) ∝ k01−α, and P(k) ∝ k1−γ, respectively. For the total number of links as a function of the network size, we find empirically K(N) ∝ Nβ, where β is (at the beginning of thenetwork evolution) between 1.25 and 2, while converging to ∼ 1 for large N. This indicates a transition from a growth regime with increasing network density towards a sustainable regime, which revents a collapse because of ever increasing dependencies. Our theoretical framework is able to predict relations between the exponents α, β, γ, which also link issues of software engineering and developer activity. These relations are verified by means of computer simulations and empirical investigations. They indicate that the growth of real Open Source Software networks occurs on the edge between two regimes, which are either dominated by the initial degree distribution of added nodes, or by the preferential attachment mechanism. Hence, the heterogeneous degree distribution of newly added nodes, found empirically, is essential to describe the laws of sustainable growth in networks. The aim of link prediction is to forecast connections that are most likely to occur in the future, based on examples of previously observed links. A key insight is that it is useful to explicitly model network dynamics, how frequently links are created or destroyed when doing link prediction. In this paper, we introduce a new supervised link prediction framework, RPM (Rate Prediction Model). In addition to network similarity measures, RPM uses the predicted rate of link modifications, modeled using time series data; it is implemented in Spark-ML and trained with the original link distribution, rather than a small balanced subset. We compare the use of this network dynamics model to directly creating time series of network similarity measures. Our experiments show that RPM, which leverages predicted rates, outperforms the use of network similarity measures, either individually or within a time series. short-lived or high degree peers due to the dynamics of peer participation or the heterogeneity of peer degrees, respectively. This paper presents Respondent-Driven Sampling (RDS) as a promising technique for sampling unstructured P2P overlays. This allows one to accurately estimate the distribution of a desired peer property without capturing the entire overlay structure. RDS is a variant of snowball sampling that has been proposed and used in the social sciences to characterize hidden population in a society [9], [13]. We apply the RDS technique to unstructured P2P network and evaluate its performance over a wide range of static and dynamic graphs as well as a widely deployed P2P system. Throughout our evaluation, we compare and contrast the performance of the RDS technique with another sampling technique, namely Metropolized Random Walk (MRW), that we developed in our earlier work [16]. Our main findings can be summarized as follows: First, RDS outperforms MRW across all scenarios. In particular, RDS exhibits a significantly better performance than MRW when the overlay structure exhibits a combination of highly skewed node degrees and highly skewed (local) clustering coefficients. Second, our simulation and empirical evaluations reveal that both the RDS and MRW techniques can accurately estimate key peer properties over dynamic unstructured overlays. Third, our empirical evaluations suggest that the efficiency of the two sampling techniques in practice is lower than in our simulations involving synthetic graphs. We attribute this to our inability to capture accurate reference snapshots. The rest of the paper is organized as follows: Section II presents an overview of both the RDS and MRW techniques, and sketches our evaluation methodology. We examine both techniques over variety of static and dynamic graphs in Section III and IV, respectively. Section V presents the empirical evaluation of the two sampling techniques over Gnutella network. Most of the existing works on human activity analysis focus on recognition or early recognition of the activity labels from complete or partial observations. Predicting the labels of future unobserved activities where no frames of the predicted activities have been observed is a challenging problem, with important applications, which has not been explored much. Associated with the future label prediction problem is the problem of predicting the starting time of the next activity. In this work, we propose a system that is able to infer about the labels and the starting times of future activities. Activities are characterized by the previous activity sequence (which is observed), as well as the objects present in the scene during their occurrence. We propose a network similar to a hybrid Siamese network with three branches to jointly learn both the future label and the starting time. The first branch takes visual features from the objects present in the scene using a fully connected network, the second branch takes previous activity features using a LSTM network to model long-term sequential relationships and the third branch captures the last observed activity features to model the context of inter-activity time using another fully connected network. These concatenated features are used for both label and time prediction. Experiments on two challenging datasets demonstrate that our framework for joint prediction of activity label and starting time improves the performance of both, and outperforms the state-of-the-arts. Many network problems are based on fundamental relationships involving time. Consider, for example, the problems of modeling the flow of information through a distributed network, studying the spread of a disease through a population, or analyzing the reachability properties of an airline timetable. In such settings, a natural model is that of a graph in which each edge is annotated with a time label specifying the time at which its endpoints "communicated." We will call such a graph a temporal network. To model the notion that information in such a network "flows" only on paths whose labels respect the ordering of time, we call a path time-respecting if the time labels on its edges are non-decreasing. The central motivation for our work is the following question: how do the basic combinatorial and algorithmic properties of graphs change when we impose this additional temporal condition? The notion of a path is intrinsic to many of the most fundamental algorithmic problems on graphs; spanning trees, connectivity, flows, and cuts are some examples. When we focus on time-respecting paths in place of arbitrary paths, many of these problems acquire a character that is different from the traditional setting, but very rich in its own right. We provide results on two types of problems for temporal networks. First, we consider connectivity problems, in which we seek disjoint time-respecting paths between pairs of nodes. The natural analogue of Menger's Theorem for node-disjoint paths fails in general for time-respecting paths; we give a non-trivial characterization of those graphs for which the theorem does hold in terms of an excluded subdivision theorem, and provide a polynomial-time algorithm for connectivity on this class of graphs. (The problem on general graphs is NP-complete.) We then define and study the class of inference problems, in which we seek to reconstruct a partially specified time labeling of a network in a manner consistent with an observed history of information flow.