Anticipating possible behaviors of traffic participants is an essential capability of autonomous vehicles. Many behavior detection and maneuver recognition methods only have a very limited prediction horizon that leaves inadequate time and space for planning. To avoid unsatisfactory reactive decisions, it is essential to count long-term future rewards in planning, which requires extending the prediction horizon. In this paper, we uncover that clues to vehicle behaviors over an extended horizon can be found in vehicle interaction, which makes it possible to anticipate the likelihood of a certain behavior, even in the absence of any clear maneuver pattern. We adopt a recurrent neural network (RNN) for observation encoding, and based on that, we propose a novel vehicle behavior interaction network (VBIN) to capture the vehicle interaction from the hidden states and connection feature of each interaction pair. The output of our method is a probabilistic likelihood of multiple behavior classes, which matches the multimodal and uncertain nature of the distant future. A systematic comparison of our method against two state-of-the-art methods and another two baseline methods on a publicly available real highway dataset is provided, showing that our method has superior accuracy and advanced capability for interaction modeling.
Modeling social interaction in RNNs started with the seminal work by Alahi @cite_16 , which proposes a social occupancy grid pooling mechanism, as shown in Fig. . This design is very effective for pedestrian trajectory prediction in a crowd @cite_4 @cite_7 @cite_15 , and is suitable for unstructured environments and modeling collision avoidance behaviors. It is directly applied to vehicle prediction in @cite_4 and @cite_0 . However, for highly dynamic on-road driving, spatial locations should not be the only reference for weighting social effects, as shown in Fig. . Going beyond these methods, our proposed VBIN can learn to weight the interactions automatically based on the relative dynamics of both agents.
@cite_4 @cite_7 @cite_0 @cite_15 @cite_16
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Pedestrians follow different trajectories to avoid obstacles and accommodate fellow pedestrians. Any autonomous vehicle navigating such a scene should be able to foresee the future positions of pedestrians and accordingly adjust its path to avoid collisions. This problem of trajectory prediction can be viewed as a sequence generation task, where we are interested in predicting the future trajectory of people based on their past positions. Following the recent success of Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) models for sequence prediction tasks, we propose an LSTM model which can learn general human movement and predict their future trajectories. This is in contrast to traditional approaches which use hand-crafted functions such as Social forces. We demonstrate the performance of our method on several public datasets. Our model outperforms state-of-the-art methods on some of these datasets. We also analyze the trajectories predicted by our model to demonstrate the motion behaviour learned by our model. Humans navigate crowded spaces such as a university campus by following common sense rules based on social etiquette. In this paper, we argue that in order to enable the design of new target tracking or trajectory forecasting methods that can take full advantage of these rules, we need to have access to better data in the first place. To that end, we contribute a new large-scale dataset that collects videos of various types of targets (not just pedestrians, but also bikers, skateboarders, cars, buses, golf carts) that navigate in a real world outdoor environment such as a university campus. Moreover, we introduce a new characterization that describes the “social sensitivity” at which two targets interact. We use this characterization to define “navigation styles” and improve both forecasting models and state-of-the-art multi-target tracking–whereby the learnt forecasting models help the data association step. In this paper, we study the safe navigation of a mobile robot through crowds of dynamic agents with uncertain trajectories. Existing algorithms suffer from the “freezing robot” problem: once the environment surpasses a certain level of complexity, the planner decides that all forward paths are unsafe, and the robot freezes in place (or performs unnecessary maneuvers) to avoid collisions. Since a feasible path typically exists, this behavior is suboptimal. Existing approaches have focused on reducing the predictive uncertainty for individual agents by employing more informed models or heuristically limiting the predictive covariance to prevent this overcautious behavior. In this work, we demonstrate that both the individual prediction and the predictive uncertainty have little to do with the frozen robot problem. Our key insight is that dynamic agents solve the frozen robot problem by engaging in “joint collision avoidance”: They cooperatively make room to create feasible trajectories. We develop IGP, a nonparametric statistical model based on dependent output Gaussian processes that can estimate crowd interaction from data. Our model naturally captures the non-Markov nature of agent trajectories, as well as their goal-driven navigation. We then show how planning in this model can be efficiently implemented using particle based inference. Lastly, we evaluate our model on a dataset of pedestrians entering and leaving a building, first comparing the model with actual pedestrians, and find that the algorithm either outperforms human pedestrians or performs very similarly to the pedestrians. We also present an experiment where a covariance reduction method results in highly overcautious behavior, while our model performs desirably. We present a novel Dynamic Bayesian Network for pedestrian path prediction in the intelligent vehicle domain. The model incorporates the pedestrian situational awareness, situation criticality and spatial layout of the environment as latent states on top of a Switching Linear Dynamical System (SLDS) to anticipate changes in the pedestrian dynamics. Using computer vision, situational awareness is assessed by the pedestrian head orientation, situation criticality by the distance between vehicle and pedestrian at the expected point of closest approach, and spatial layout by the distance of the pedestrian to the curbside. Our particular scenario is that of a crossing pedestrian, who might stop or continue walking at the curb. In experiments using stereo vision data obtained from a vehicle, we demonstrate that the proposed approach results in more accurate path prediction than only SLDS, at the relevant short time horizon (1 s), and slightly outperforms a computationally more demanding state-of-the-art method. For mobile robots navigating on sidewalks, it is essential to be able to safely cross street intersections. Most existing approaches rely on the recognition of the traffic light signal to make an informed crossing decision. Although these approaches have been crucial enablers for urban navigation, the capabilities of robots employing such approaches are still limited to navigating only on streets containing signalized intersections. In this paper, we address this challenge and propose a multimodal convolutional neural network framework to predict the safety of a street intersection for crossing. Our architecture consists of two subnetworks; an interaction-aware trajectory estimation stream IA-TCNN, that predicts the future states of all observed traffic participants in the scene, and a traffic light recognition stream AtteNet. Our IA-TCNN utilizes dilated causal convolutions to model the behavior of the observable dynamic agents in the scene without explicitly assigning priorities to the interactions among them. While AtteNet utilizes Squeeze-Excitation blocks to learn a content-aware mechanism for selecting the relevant features from the data, thereby improving the noise robustness. Learned representations from the traffic light recognition stream are fused with the estimated trajectories from the motion prediction stream to learn the crossing decision. Furthermore, we extend our previously introduced Freiburg Street Crossing dataset with sequences captured at different types of intersections, demonstrating complex interactions among the traffic participants. Extensive experimental evaluations on public benchmark datasets and our proposed dataset demonstrate that our network achieves state-of-the-art performance for each of the subtasks, as well as for the crossing safety prediction. This paper presents a method for constructing human-robot interaction policies in settings where multimodality, i.e., the possibility of multiple highly distinct futures, plays a critical role in decision making. We are motivated in this work by the example of traffic weaving, e.g., at highway on-ramps off-ramps, where entering and exiting cars must swap lanes in a short distance---a challenging negotiation even for experienced drivers due to the inherent multimodal uncertainty of who will pass whom. Our approach is to learn multimodal probability distributions over future human actions from a dataset of human-human exemplars and perform real-time robot policy construction in the resulting environment model through massively parallel sampling of human responses to candidate robot action sequences. Direct learning of these distributions is made possible by recent advances in the theory of conditional variational autoencoders (CVAEs), whereby we learn action distributions simultaneously conditioned on the present interaction history, as well as candidate future robot actions in order to take into account response dynamics. We demonstrate the efficacy of this approach with a human-in-the-loop simulation of a traffic weaving scenario. We develop predictive models of pedestrian dynamics by encoding the coupled nature of multi-pedestrian interaction using game theory, and deep learning-based visual analysis to estimate person-specific behavior parameters. Building predictive models for multi-pedestrian interactions however, is very challenging due to two reasons: (1) the dynamics of interaction are complex interdependent processes, where the predicted behavior of one pedestrian can affect the actions taken by others and (2) dynamics are variable depending on an individuals physical characteristics (e.g., an older person may walk slowly while the younger person may walk faster). To address these challenges, we (1) utilize concepts from game theory to model the interdependent decision making process of multiple pedestrians and (2) use visual classifiers to learn a mapping from pedestrian appearance to behavior parameters. We evaluate our proposed model on several public multiple pedestrian interaction video datasets. Results show that our strategic planning model explains human interactions 25 better when compared to state-of-the-art methods. Future vehicle systems for active pedestrian safety will not only require a high recognition performance but also an accurate analysis of the developing traffic situation. In this paper, we present a study on pedestrian path prediction and action classification at short subsecond time intervals. We consider four representative approaches: two novel approaches (based on Gaussian process dynamical models and probabilistic hierarchical trajectory matching) that use augmented features derived from dense optical flow and two approaches as baseline that use positional information only (a Kalman filter and its extension to interacting multiple models). In experiments using stereo vision data obtained from a vehicle, we investigate the accuracy of path prediction and action classification at various time horizons, the effect of various errors (image localization, vehicle egomotion estimation), and the benefit of the proposed approaches. The scenario of interest is that of a crossing pedestrian, who might stop or continue walking at the road curbside. Results indicate similar performance of the four approaches on walking motion, with near-linear dynamics. During stopping, however, the two newly proposed approaches, with nonlinear and or higher order models and augmented motion features, achieve a more accurate position prediction of 10-50 cm at a time horizon of 0-0.77 s around the stopping event. This paper addresses the problem of path prediction for multiple interacting agents in a scene, which is a crucial step for many autonomous platforms such as self-driving cars and social robots. We present ; an interpretable framework based on Generative Adversarial Network (GAN), which leverages two sources of information, the path history of all the agents in a scene, and the scene context information, using images of the scene. To predict a future path for an agent, both physical and social information must be leveraged. Previous work has not been successful to jointly model physical and social interactions. Our approach blends a social attention mechanism with a physical attention that helps the model to learn where to look in a large scene and extract the most salient parts of the image relevant to the path. Whereas, the social attention component aggregates information across the different agent interactions and extracts the most important trajectory information from the surrounding neighbors. SoPhie also takes advantage of GAN to generates more realistic samples and to capture the uncertain nature of the future paths by modeling its distribution. All these mechanisms enable our approach to predict socially and physically plausible paths for the agents and to achieve state-of-the-art performance on several different trajectory forecasting benchmarks. We consider the problem of navigating a mobile robot through dense human crowds. We begin by exploring a fundamental impediment to classical motion planning algorithms called the âfreezing robot problemâ: once the environment surpasses a certain level of dynamic complexity, the planner decides that all forward paths are unsafe, and the robot freezes in place or performs unnecessary maneuvers to avoid collisions. We argue that this problem can be avoided if the robot anticipates human cooperation, and accordingly we develop interacting Gaussian processes, a prediction density that captures cooperative collision avoidance, and a âmultiple goalâ extension that models the goal-driven nature of human decision making. We validate this model with an empirical study of robot navigation in dense human crowds 488 runs, specifically testing how cooperation models effect navigation performance. The multiple goal interacting Gaussian processes algorithm performs comparably with human teleoperators in crowd densities nearing 0.8 humans m2, while a state-of-the-art non-cooperative planner exhibits unsafe behavior more than three times as often as the multiple goal extension, and twice as often as the basic interacting Gaussian process approach. Furthermore, a reactive planner based on the widely used dynamic window approach proves insufficient for crowd densities above 0.55 people m2. We also show that our non-cooperative planner or our reactive planner capture the salient characteristics of nearly any dynamic navigation algorithm. Based on these experimental results and theoretical observations, we conclude that a cooperation model is critical for safe and efficient robot navigation in dense human crowds. When driving in urban environments, an autonomous vehicle must account for the interaction with other traffic participants. It must reason about their future behavior, how its actions affect their future behavior, and potentially consider multiple motion hypothesis. In this paper we introduce a method for joint behavior estimation and trajectory planning that models interaction and multi-policy decision-making. The method leverages Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes to estimate the behavior of other traffic participants given the planned trajectory for the ego-vehicle, and Receding-Horizon Control for generating safe trajectories for the ego-vehicle. To achieve safe navigation we introduce chance constraints over multiple motion policies in the receding-horizon planner. These constraints account for uncertainty over the behavior of other traffic participants. The method is capable of running in real-time and we show its performance and good scalability in simulated multi-vehicle intersection scenarios. This paper presents a method for constructing human-robot interaction policies in settings where multimodality, i.e., the possibility of multiple highly distinct futures, plays a critical role in decision making. We are motivated in this work by the example of traffic weaving, e.g., at highway on-ramps off-ramps, where entering and exiting cars must swap lanes in a short distance-a challenging negotiation even for experienced drivers due to the inherent multimodal uncertainty of who will pass whom. Our approach is to learn multimodal probability distributions over future human actions from a dataset of human-human exemplars and perform real-time robot policy construction in the resulting environment model through massively parallel sampling of human responses to candidate robot action sequences. Direct learning of these distributions is made possible by recent advances in the theory of conditional variational autoencoders (CVAEs), whereby we learn action distributions simultaneously conditioned on the present interaction history, as well as candidate future robot actions in order to take into account response dynamics. We demonstrate the efficacy of this approach with a human-in-the-loop simulation of a traffic weaving scenario. This paper presents a novel cooperative-driving prediction and planning framework for dynamic environments based on the methods of game theory. The proposed algorithm can be used for highly automated driving on highways or as a sophisticated prediction module for advanced driver-assistance systems with no need for intervehicle communication. The main contribution of this paper is a model-based interaction-aware motion prediction of all vehicles in a scene. In contrast to other state-of-the-art approaches, the system also models the replanning capabilities of all drivers. With that, the driving strategy is able to capture complex interactions between vehicles, thus planning maneuver sequences over longer time horizons. It also enables an accurate prediction of traffic for the next immediate time step. The prediction model is supported by an interpretation of what other drivers intend to do, how they interact with traffic, and the ongoing observation. As part of the prediction loop, the proposed planning strategy incorporates the expected reactions of all traffic participants, offering cooperative and robust driving decisions. By means of experimental results under simulated highway scenarios, the validity of the proposed concept and its real-time capability is demonstrated. We propose a Dynamic-Spatial-Attention (DSA) Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) for anticipating accidents in dashcam videos (Fig. 1). Our DSA-RNN learns to (1) distribute soft-attention to candidate objects dynamically to gather subtle cues and (2) model the temporal dependencies of all cues to robustly anticipate an accident. Anticipating accidents is much less addressed than anticipating events such as changing a lane, making a turn, etc., since accidents are rare to be observed and can happen in many different ways mostly in a sudden. To overcome these challenges, we (1) utilize state-of-the-art object detector [3] to detect candidate objects, and (2) incorporate full-frame and object-based appearance and motion features in our model. We also harvest a diverse dataset of 678 dashcam accident videos on the web (Fig. 3). The dataset is unique, since various accidents (e.g., a motorbike hits a car, a car hits another car, etc.) occur in all videos. We manually mark the time-location of accidents and use them as supervision to train and evaluate our method. We show that our method anticipates accidents about 2 s before they occur with 80 recall and 56.14 precision. Most importantly, it achieves the highest mean average precision (74.35 ) outperforming other baselines without attention or RNN. With the rapid development of the techniques for autonomous driving and ADAS in the last decade, more advanced methods to understand pedestrian behavior are required. Crosswalks at intersections are the one of most hazardous where many accidents between turning-vehicles and pedestrians occur. In this paper, we present a method for estimating the pedestrian’s intention to cross a signalized crosswalk or stop in front of it. The intention is crucial to not only the collision avoidance but also smooth traffic in the context of autonomous driving by reducing unnecessary risk margins. Regarding the behavioral flow of pedestrian: assessment, decision-making and physical movement, as a stochastic process, we construct a probabilistic model with the Dynamic Bayesian Network. It takes account of not only pedestrian physical states but also contextual information and integrates the relationship among them. By employing the particle filter as a Bayesian filtering framework, the model estimates the pedestrian state from signal information and pedestrian position measurements. Evaluation using experimental data collected in real traffic scene shows that the proposed model has an ability to detect the pedestrian intention to cross a crosswalk even when he she is far from it. Many current autonomous systems are being designed with a strong reliance on black box predictions from deep neural networks (DNNs). However, DNNs tend to be overconfident in predictions on unseen data and can give unpredictable results for far-from-distribution test data. The importance of predictions that are robust to this distributional shift is evident for safety-critical applications, such as collision avoidance around pedestrians. Measures of model uncertainty can be used to identify unseen data, but the state-of-the-art extraction methods such as Bayesian neural networks are mostly intractable to compute. This paper uses MC-Dropout and Bootstrapping to give computationally tractable and parallelizable uncertainty estimates. The methods are embedded in a Safe Reinforcement Learning framework to form uncertainty-aware navigation around pedestrians. The result is a collision avoidance policy that and cautiously avoids pedestrians that exhibit unseen behavior. The policy is demonstrated in simulation to be more robust to novel observations and take safer actions than an uncertainty-unaware baseline. Anticipating future situations from streaming sensor data is a key perception challenge for mobile robotics and automated vehicles. We address the problem of predicting the path of objects with multiple dynamic modes. The dynamics of such targets can be described by a Switching Linear Dynamical System (SLDS). However, predictions from this probabilistic model cannot anticipate when a change in dynamic mode will occur. We propose to extract various types of cues with computer vision to provide context on the target’s behavior, and incorporate these in a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN). The DBN extends the SLDS by conditioning the mode transition probabilities on additional context states. We describe efficient online inference in this DBN for probabilistic path prediction, accounting for uncertainty in both measurements and target behavior. Our approach is illustrated on two scenarios in the Intelligent Vehicles domain concerning pedestrians and cyclists, so-called Vulnerable Road Users (VRUs). Here, context cues include the static environment of the VRU, its dynamic environment, and its observed actions. Experiments using stereo vision data from a moving vehicle demonstrate that the proposed approach results in more accurate path prediction than SLDS at the relevant short time horizon (1 s). It slightly outperforms a computationally more demanding state-of-the-art method. We propose an agent-based behavioral model of pedestrians to improve tracking performance in realistic scenarios. In this model, we view pedestrians as decision-making agents who consider a plethora of personal, social, and environmental factors to decide where to go next. We formulate prediction of pedestrian behavior as an energy minimization on this model. Two of our main contributions are simple, yet effective estimates of pedestrian destination and social relationships (groups). Our final contribution is to incorporate these hidden properties into an energy formulation that results in accurate behavioral prediction. We evaluate both our estimates of destination and grouping, as well as our accuracy at prediction and tracking against state of the art behavioral model and show improvements, especially in the challenging observational situation of infrequent appearance observations–something that might occur in thousands of webcams available on the Internet. Active safety systems which assess highly dynamic traffic situations including pedestrians are required with growing demands in autonomous driving and ADAS. In this paper, we focus on one of the most hazardous traffic situations: the possible collision between a pedestrian and a turning vehicle at intersections. This paper presents a probabilistic model of pedestrian behavior to signalized crosswalks. For this purpose, we take not only pedestrian physical states but also contextual information into account. We propose a model based on the Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) which integrates relations among the intersection context information and the pedestrian behavior in the same way as human. Afterwards, the model jointly estimates their states by the particle filter. Experimental evaluation using real traffic data shows that this model is able to recognize the pedestrian crossing decision in advance from the traffic signal and pedestrian position information. The objective of this study is the development of a computer simulation model for pedestrian movement in architectural and urban space. The characteristic of the model is the ability to visualize the movement of each pedestrian in a plan as an animation. So architects and designers can easily find and understand the problems in their design projects. In this model, the movement of each pedestrian is simulated by the motion of a magnetized object in a magnetic field. Positive magnetic pole is given to each pedestrian and obstacles like walls and columns. Negative magnetic pole is located at the goal of pedestrians. Each pedestrian moves to his goal by the attractive force caused by the negative magnetic pole at his goal, avoiding collisions with other pedestrians and obstacles by repulsive forces caused by the positive magnetic poles. The effectiveness of the simulation model is shown by the following two kinds of simulation examples. (1) Evacuation from an office building In this model pedestrians walk along the route from each starting point to the exit in case of evacuation. The example shows the places where stagnations and heavy congestions occur, and designers can see if the evacuation routes are appropriate. (2) Movement of pedestrians in queue spaces Three types of queuing behavior is classified in this model: movement in front of counters, movement passing through ratches, and movement of getting on and off in elevator halls. Simulation examples in a railway station and in a main floor of a resort hotel are shown where several kinds of queue spaces are included and complicated movements of hundreds of pedestrians occur.