Behavioral cloning reduces policy learning to supervised learning by training a discriminative model to predict expert actions given observations. Such discriminative models are non-causal: the training procedure is unaware of the causal structure of the interaction between the expert and the environment. We point out that ignoring causality is particularly damaging because of the distributional shift in imitation learning. In particular, it leads to a counter-intuitive "causal confusion" phenomenon: access to more information can yield worse performance. We investigate how this problem arises, and propose a solution to combat it through targeted interventions---either environment interaction or expert queries---to determine the correct causal model. We show that causal confusion occurs in several benchmark control domains as well as realistic driving settings, and validate our solution against DAgger and other baselines and ablations.
We also compare against : to prevent imitators from copying past actions, they train with dropout @cite_19 on dimensions that might reveal past actions. While our approach seeks to find the true causal graph in a mixture of graph-parameterized policies, dropout corresponds to directly applying the mixture policy. In our experiments, our approach performs significantly better.
@cite_19
2716974933 2949176378 2804020409 204991199 2542071751 2152722485 2952825952 2083689856 2245825236 2964094335 2751258126 1956343362 2767382337 2964139811 2962750142 1850984366 2951392118 2559823555 119705851 2964345061
We propose a novel approach for inferring the individualized causal effects of a treatment (intervention) from observational data. Our approach conceptualizes causal inference as a multitask learning problem; we model a subject's potential outcomes using a deep multitask network with a set of shared layers among the factual and counterfactual outcomes, and a set of outcome-specific layers. The impact of selection bias in the observational data is alleviated via a propensity-dropout regularization scheme, in which the network is thinned for every training example via a dropout probability that depends on the associated propensity score. The network is trained in alternating phases, where in each phase we use the training examples of one of the two potential outcomes (treated and control populations) to update the weights of the shared layers and the respective outcome-specific layers. Experiments conducted on data based on a real-world observational study show that our algorithm outperforms the state-of-the-art. Dropout training, originally designed for deep neural networks, has been successful on high-dimensional single-layer natural language tasks. This paper proposes a theoretical explanation for this phenomenon: we show that, under a generative Poisson topic model with long documents, dropout training improves the exponent in the generalization bound for empirical risk minimization. Dropout achieves this gain much like a marathon runner who practices at altitude: once a classifier learns to perform reasonably well on training examples that have been artificially corrupted by dropout, it will do very well on the uncorrupted test set. We also show that, under similar conditions, dropout preserves the Bayes decision boundary and should therefore induce minimal bias in high dimensions. In this paper, we describe a novel approach to imitation learning that infers latent policies directly from state observations. We introduce a method that characterizes the causal effects of latent actions on observations while simultaneously predicting their likelihood. We then outline an action alignment procedure that leverages a small amount of environment interactions to determine a mapping between the latent and real-world actions. We show that this corrected labeling can be used for imitating the observed behavior, even though no expert actions are given. We evaluate our approach within classic control environments and a platform game and demonstrate that it performs better than standard approaches. Code for this work is available at this https URL. We address the problem of visually detecting causal events and fitting them together into a coherent story of the action witnessed by the camera. We show that this can be done by reasoning about the motions and collisions of surfaces, using high-level causal constraints derived from psychological studies of infant visual behavior. These constraints are naive forms of basic physical laws governing substantiality, contiguity, momentum, and acceleration. We describe two implementations. One system parses instructional videos, extracting plans of action and key frames suitable for storyboarding. Since learning will play a role in making such systems robust, we introduce a new framework for higher-order hidden Markov models and demonstrate its use in a second system that segments stereo video into actions in near real-time. Rather than attempt accurate low-level vision, both systems use high-level causal analysis to integrate fast but sloppy pixel-based representations over time. The output is suitable for summary, indexing, and automated editing. Motivated by online recommendation and advertising systems, we consider a causal model for stochastic contextual bandits with a latent low-dimensional confounder. In our model, there are @math observed contexts and @math arms of the bandit. The observed context influences the reward obtained through a latent confounder variable with cardinality @math ( @math ). The arm choice and the latent confounder causally determines the reward while the observed context is correlated with the confounder. Under this model, the @math mean reward matrix @math (for each context in @math and each arm in @math ) factorizes into non-negative factors @math ( @math ) and @math ( @math ). This insight enables us to propose an @math -greedy NMF-Bandit algorithm that designs a sequence of interventions (selecting specific arms), that achieves a balance between learning this low-dimensional structure and selecting the best arm to minimize regret. Our algorithm achieves a regret of @math at time @math , as compared to @math for conventional contextual bandits, assuming a constant gap between the best arm and the rest for each context. These guarantees are obtained under mild sufficiency conditions on the factors that are weaker versions of the well-known Statistical RIP condition. We further propose a class of generative models that satisfy our sufficient conditions, and derive a lower bound of @math . These are the first regret guarantees for online matrix completion with bandit feedback, when the rank is greater than one. We further compare the performance of our algorithm with the state of the art, on synthetic and real world data-sets. Dropout and other feature noising schemes control overfitting by artificially corrupting the training data. For generalized linear models, dropout performs a form of adaptive regularization. Using this viewpoint, we show that the dropout regularizer is first-order equivalent to an L2 regularizer applied after scaling the features by an estimate of the inverse diagonal Fisher information matrix. We also establish a connection to AdaGrad, an online learning algorithm, and find that a close relative of AdaGrad operates by repeatedly solving linear dropout-regularized problems. By casting dropout as regularization, we develop a natural semi-supervised algorithm that uses unlabeled data to create a better adaptive regularizer. We apply this idea to document classification tasks, and show that it consistently boosts the performance of dropout training, improving on state-of-the-art results on the IMDB reviews dataset. Dropout and other feature noising schemes control overfitting by artificially corrupting the training data. For generalized linear models, dropout performs a form of adaptive regularization. Using this viewpoint, we show that the dropout regularizer is first-order equivalent to an L2 regularizer applied after scaling the features by an estimate of the inverse diagonal Fisher information matrix. We also establish a connection to AdaGrad, an online learning algorithm, and find that a close relative of AdaGrad operates by repeatedly solving linear dropout-regularized problems. By casting dropout as regularization, we develop a natural semi-supervised algorithm that uses unlabeled data to create a better adaptive regularizer. We apply this idea to document classification tasks, and show that it consistently boosts the performance of dropout training, improving on state-of-the-art results on the IMDB reviews dataset. Inferring the causal structure that links n observables is usually based upon detecting statistical dependences and choosing simple graphs that make the joint measure Markovian. Here we argue why causal inference is also possible when the sample size is one. We develop a theory how to generate causal graphs explaining similarities between single objects. To this end, we replace the notion of conditional stochastic independence in the causal Markov condition with the vanishing of conditional algorithmic mutual information and describe the corresponding causal inference rules. We explain why a consistent reformulation of causal inference in terms of algorithmic complexity implies a new inference principle that takes into account also the complexity of conditional probability densities, making it possible to select among Markov equivalent causal graphs. This insight provides a theoretical foundation of a heuristic principle proposed in earlier work. We also sketch some ideas on how to replace Kolmogorov complexity with decidable complexity criteria. This can be seen as an algorithmic analog of replacing the empirically undecidable question of statistical independence with practical independence tests that are based on implicit or explicit assumptions on the underlying distribution. We consider the problem of learning to act in partially observable, continuous-state-and-action worlds where we have abstract prior knowledge about the structure of the optimal policy in the form of a distribution over policies. Using ideas from planning-as-inference reductions and Bayesian unsupervised learning, we cast Markov Chain Monte Carlo as a stochastic, hill-climbing policy search algorithm. Importantly, this algorithm's search bias is directly tied to the prior and its MCMC proposal kernels, which means we can draw on the full Bayesian toolbox to express the search bias, including nonparametric priors and structured, recursive processes like grammars over action sequences. Furthermore, we can reason about uncertainty in the search bias itself by constructing a hierarchical prior and reasoning about latent variables that determine the abstract structure of the policy. This yields an adaptive search algorithm--our algorithm learns to learn a structured policy efficiently. We show how inference over the latent variables in these policy priors enables intra- and intertask transfer of abstract knowledge. We demonstrate the flexibility of this approach by learning meta search biases, by constructing a nonparametric finite state controller to model memory, by discovering motor primitives using a simple grammar over primitive actions, and by combining all three. © 2018 by authors.All right reserved. Dropout, a stochastic regularisation technique for training of neural networks, has recently been reinterpreted as a specific type of approximate inference algorithm for Bayesian neural networks. The main contribution of the reinterpretation is in providing a theoretical framework useful for analysing and extending the algorithm. We show that the proposed framework suffers from several issues; from undefined or pathological behaviour of the true posterior related to use of improper priors, to an ill-defined variational objective due to singularity of the approximating distribution relative to the true posterior. Our analysis of the improper log uniform prior used in variational Gaussian dropout suggests the pathologies are generally irredeemable, and that the algorithm still works only because the variational formulation annuls some of the pathologies. To address the singularity issue, we proffer Quasi-KL (QKL) divergence, a new approximate inference objective for approximation of high-dimensional distributions. We show that motivations for variational Bernoulli dropout based on discretisation and noise have QKL as a limit. Properties of QKL are studied both theoretically and on a simple practical example which shows that the QKL-optimal approximation of a full rank Gaussian with a degenerate one naturally leads to the Principal Component Analysis solution. It has been postulated that a good representation is one that disentangles the underlying explanatory factors of variation. However, it remains an open question what kind of training framework could potentially achieve that. Whereas most previous work focuses on the static setting (e.g., with images), we postulate that some of the causal factors could be discovered if the learner is allowed to interact with its environment. The agent can experiment with different actions and observe their effects. More specifically, we hypothesize that some of these factors correspond to aspects of the environment which are independently controllable, i.e., that there exists a policy and a learnable feature for each such aspect of the environment, such that this policy can yield changes in that feature with minimal changes to other features that explain the statistical variations in the observed data. We propose a specific objective function to find such factors and verify experimentally that it can indeed disentangle independently controllable aspects of the environment without any extrinsic reward signal. We investigate the problem of learning representations that are invariant to certain nuisance or sensitive factors of variation in the data while retaining as much of the remaining information as possible. Our model is based on a variational autoencoding architecture with priors that encourage independence between sensitive and latent factors of variation. Any subsequent processing, such as classification, can then be performed on this purged latent representation. To remove any remaining dependencies we incorporate an additional penalty term based on the "Maximum Mean Discrepancy" (MMD) measure. We discuss how these architectures can be efficiently trained on data and show in experiments that this method is more effective than previous work in removing unwanted sources of variation while maintaining informative latent representations. We present a method for transferring neural representations from label-rich source domains to unlabeled target domains. Recent adversarial methods proposed for this task learn to align features across domains by fooling a special domain critic network. However, a drawback of this approach is that the critic simply labels the generated features as in-domain or not, without considering the boundaries between classes. This can lead to ambiguous features being generated near class boundaries, reducing target classification accuracy. We propose a novel approach, Adversarial Dropout Regularization (ADR), to encourage the generator to output more discriminative features for the target domain. Our key idea is to replace the critic with one that detects non-discriminative features, using dropout on the classifier network. The generator then learns to avoid these areas of the feature space and thus creates better features. We apply our ADR approach to the problem of unsupervised domain adaptation for image classification and semantic segmentation tasks, and demonstrate significant improvement over the state of the art. We also show that our approach can be used to train Generative Adversarial Networks for semi-supervised learning. We present a method for transferring neural representations from label-rich source domains to unlabeled target domains. Recent adversarial methods proposed for this task learn to align features across domains by fooling a special domain critic network. However, a drawback of this approach is that the critic simply labels the generated features as in-domain or not, without considering the boundaries between classes. This can lead to ambiguous features being generated near class boundaries, reducing target classification accuracy. We propose a novel approach, Adversarial Dropout Regularization (ADR), to encourage the generator to output more discriminative features for the target domain. Our key idea is to replace the critic with one that detects non-discriminative features, using dropout on the classifier network. The generator then learns to avoid these areas of the feature space and thus creates better features. We apply our ADR approach to the problem of unsupervised domain adaptation for image classification and semantic segmentation tasks, and demonstrate significant improvement over the state of the art. We also show that our approach can be used to train Generative Adversarial Networks for semi-supervised learning. Abstract: We investigate the problem of learning representations that are invariant to certain nuisance or sensitive factors of variation in the data while retaining as much of the remaining information as possible. Our model is based on a variational autoencoding architecture with priors that encourage independence between sensitive and latent factors of variation. Any subsequent processing, such as classification, can then be performed on this purged latent representation. To remove any remaining dependencies we incorporate an additional penalty term based on the "Maximum Mean Discrepancy" (MMD) measure. We discuss how these architectures can be efficiently trained on data and show in experiments that this method is more effective than previous work in removing unwanted sources of variation while maintaining informative latent representations. The discovery of causal relationships from purely observational data is a fundamental problem in science. The most elementary form of such a causal discovery problem is to decide whether X causes Y or, alternatively, Y causes X, given joint observations of two variables X,Y. An example is to decide whether altitude causes temperature, or vice versa, given only joint measurements of both variables. Even under the simplifying assumptions of no confounding, no feedback loops, and no selection bias, such bivariate causal discovery problems are challenging. Nevertheless, several approaches for addressing those problems have been proposed in recent years. We review two families of such methods: methods based on Additive Noise Models (ANMs) and Information Geometric Causal Inference (IGCI). We present the benchmark CAUSEEFFECTPAIRS that consists of data for 100 different causee ffect pairs selected from 37 data sets from various domains (e.g., meteorology, biology, medicine, engineering, economy, etc.) and motivate our decisions regarding the "ground truth" causal directions of all pairs. We evaluate the performance of several bivariate causal discovery methods on these real-world benchmark data and in addition on artificially simulated data. Our empirical results on real-world data indicate that certain methods are indeed able to distinguish cause from effect using only purely observational data, although more benchmark data would be needed to obtain statistically significant conclusions. One of the best performing methods overall is the method based on Additive Noise Models that has originally been proposed by (2009), which obtains an accuracy of 63 ± 10 and an AUC of 0.74 ± 0.05 on the real-world benchmark. As the main theoretical contribution of this work we prove the consistency of that method. We introduce a conditional generative model for learning to disentangle the hidden factors of variation within a set of labeled observations, and separate them into complementary codes. One code summarizes the specified factors of variation associated with the labels. The other summarizes the remaining unspecified variability. During training, the only available source of supervision comes from our ability to distinguish among different observations belonging to the same class. Examples of such observations include images of a set of labeled objects captured at different viewpoints, or recordings of set of speakers dictating multiple phrases. In both instances, the intra-class diversity is the source of the unspecified factors of variation: each object is observed at multiple viewpoints, and each speaker dictates multiple phrases. Learning to disentangle the specified factors from the unspecified ones becomes easier when strong supervision is possible. Suppose that during training, we have access to pairs of images, where each pair shows two different objects captured from the same viewpoint. This source of alignment allows us to solve our task using existing methods. However, labels for the unspecified factors are usually unavailable in realistic scenarios where data acquisition is not strictly controlled. We address the problem of disentanglement in this more general setting by combining deep convolutional autoencoders with a form of adversarial training. Both factors of variation are implicitly captured in the organization of the learned embedding space, and can be used for solving single-image analogies. Experimental results on synthetic and real datasets show that the proposed method is capable of generalizing to unseen classes and intra-class variabilities. We introduce a conditional generative model for learning to disentangle the hidden factors of variation within a set of labeled observations, and separate them into complementary codes. One code summarizes the specified factors of variation associated with the labels. The other summarizes the remaining unspecified variability. During training, the only available source of supervision comes from our ability to distinguish among different observations belonging to the same class. Examples of such observations include images of a set of labeled objects captured at different viewpoints, or recordings of set of speakers dictating multiple phrases. In both instances, the intra-class diversity is the source of the unspecified factors of variation: each object is observed at multiple viewpoints, and each speaker dictates multiple phrases. Learning to disentangle the specified factors from the unspecified ones becomes easier when strong supervision is possible. Suppose that during training, we have access to pairs of images, where each pair shows two different objects captured from the same viewpoint. This source of alignment allows us to solve our task using existing methods. However, labels for the unspecified factors are usually unavailable in realistic scenarios where data acquisition is not strictly controlled. We address the problem of disentaglement in this more general setting by combining deep convolutional autoencoders with a form of adversarial training. Both factors of variation are implicitly captured in the organization of the learned embedding space, and can be used for solving single-image analogies. Experimental results on synthetic and real datasets show that the proposed method is capable of generalizing to unseen classes and intra-class variabilities. Recent studies have shown that graph-based approaches are effective for semi-supervised learning. The key idea behind many graph-based approaches is to enforce the consistency between the class assignment of unlabeled examples and the pairwise similarity between examples. One major limitation with most graph-based approaches is that they are unable to explore dissimilarity or negative similarity. This is because the dissimilar relation is not transitive, and therefore is difficult to be propagated. Furthermore, negative similarity could result in unbounded energy functions, which makes most graph-based algorithms unapplicable. In this paper, we propose a new graph-based approach, termed as "mixed label propagation" which is able to effectively explore both similarity and dissimilarity simultaneously. In particular, the new framework determines the assignment of class labels by (1) minimizing the energy function associated with positive similarity, and (2) maximizing the energy function associated with negative similarity. Our empirical study with collaborative filtering shows promising performance of the proposed approach. Dropout has been witnessed with great success in training deep neural networks by independently zeroing out the outputs of neurons at random. It has also received a surge of interest for shallow learning, e.g., logistic regression. However, the independent sampling for dropout could be suboptimal for the sake of convergence. In this paper, we propose to use multinomial sampling for dropout, i.e., sampling features or neurons according to a multinomial distribution with different probabilities for different features neurons. To exhibit the optimal dropout probabilities, we analyze the shallow learning with multinomial dropout and establish the risk bound for stochastic optimization. By minimizing a sampling dependent factor in the risk bound, we obtain a distribution-dependent dropout with sampling probabilities dependent on the second order statistics of the data distribution. To tackle the issue of evolving distribution of neurons in deep learning, we propose an efficient adaptive dropout (named ) that computes the sampling probabilities on-the-fly from a mini-batch of examples. Empirical studies on several benchmark datasets demonstrate that the proposed dropouts achieve not only much faster convergence and but also a smaller testing error than the standard dropout. For example, on the CIFAR-100 data, the evolutional dropout achieves relative improvements over 10 on the prediction performance and over 50 on the convergence speed compared to the standard dropout.