Complex networks are nowadays employed in several applications. Modeling urban street networks is one of them, and in particular to analyze criminal aspects of a city. Several research groups have focused on such application, but until now, there is a lack of a well-defined methodology for employing complex networks in a whole crime analysis process, i.e. from data preparation to a deep analysis of criminal communities. Furthermore, the “toolset” available for those works is not complete enough, also lacking techniques to maintain up-to-date, complete crime datasets and proper assessment measures. In this sense, we propose a threefold methodology for employing complex networks in the detection of highly criminal areas within a city. Our methodology comprises three tasks: (i) Mapping of Urban Crimes; (ii) Criminal Community Identification; and (iii) Crime Analysis. Moreover, it provides a proper set of assessment measures for analyzing intrinsic criminality of communities, especially when considering different crime types. We show our methodology by applying it to a real crime dataset from the city of San Francisco—CA, USA. The results confirm its effectiveness to identify and analyze high criminality areas within a city. Hence, our contributions provide a basis for further developments on complex networks applied to crime analysis.
Crime Analysis. White @cite_8 represent criminal activities via a georeferenced complex network, through which they compare criminal demographics and identify criminal communities. The demographic regions are created by clustering the urban areas using socioeconomic borders, whereas the crime network is formed by linking crime locations that are close according to the Euclidean distance. To identify the criminal communities, the authors employ a label propagation technique. Their results show that the crime network can be constructed without requiring information about individual crimes. However, their crime network does not take the urban topology into account, so their comparison is based only on socioeconomic information.
@cite_8
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It is undoubtedly cliche to say that we are in the Age of Big Data Analytics or Data Science; every computing and IT publication you find talks about Big Data and companies no longer are interested in software engineers and analysts but instead they are looking for Data Scientists! In spite of the excessive use of the term, the truth of the matter is that data has never been more available and the increase in computation power allows for more sophisticated tools to identify patterns in the data and on the networks that governs these systems (complex networks). Crime is not different, the open data phenomena has spread to thousand of cities in the world, which are making data about crime activity available for any citizen to look at. Furthermore, new criminology studies argue that criminals typically commit crimes in areas in which they are familiar, usually close to home. Using this information we propose a new model based on networks to build links between crimes in close physical proximity. We show that the structure of the criminal activity can be partially represented by this spatial network of sites. In this paper we describe this process and the analysis of the networks we have constructed to find patterns in the underlying structure of criminal activity. Motivated by empirical observations of spatio-temporal clusters of crime across a wide variety of urban settings, we present a model to study the emergence, dynamics, and steady-state properties of crime hotspots. We focus on a two-dimensional lattice model for residential burglary, where each site is characterized by a dynamic attractiveness variable, and where each criminal is represented as a random walker. The dynamics of criminals and of the attractiveness field are coupled to each other via specific biasing and feedback mechanisms. Depending on parameter choices, we observe and describe several regimes of aggregation, including hotspots of high criminal activity. On the basis of the discrete system, we also derive a continuum model; the two are in good quantitative agreement for large system sizes. By means of a linear stability analysis we are able to determine the parameter values that will lead to the creation of stable hotspots. We discuss our model and results in the context of established crim... Crime is classically âunpredictableâ. It is not necessarily random, but neither does it take place consistently in space or time. A better theoretical understanding is needed to facilitate practical crime prevention solutions that correspond to specific places and times. In this study, we discuss the preliminary results of a crime forecasting model developed in collaboration with the police department of a United States city in the Northeast. We first discuss our approach to architecting datasets from original crime records. The datasets contain aggregated counts of crime and crime-related events categorized by the police department. The location and time of these events is embedded in the data. Additional spatial and temporal features are harvested from the raw data set. Second, an ensemble of data mining classification techniques is employed to perform the crime forecasting. We analyze a variety of classification methods to determine which is best for predicting crime âhotspotsâ. We also investigate classification on increase or emergence. Last, we propose the best forecasting approach to achieve the most stable outcomes. The result of our research is a model that takes advantage of implicit and explicit spatial and temporal data to make reliable crime predictions. This study proposes a street-level space‐time hotspot detection method to analyse crime incidents recorded at the street-address level and provides description of the micro-level variation of crime incidents over space and time. It expands the notion of search-window techniques widely used in crime science by developing a method that can account for the spatial‐temporal distribution of crime incidents measured in network distance. The study first describes the methodological framework by presenting the concept of a new type of search window and how it is used in the process of statistical testing for detecting crime hotspots. This is followed by analyses using 1 a simulated distribution of points along the street network, and 2 a set of real street-crime incident data. The simulation study demonstrates that the proposed method is effective in identifying space‐time hotspots, which include those that are not detected by a non-temporal method. The empirical analysis of the drug markets and assaults in downtown Buffalo, New York, revealed a detailed space‐time signature of each type of crime, highlighting the recurrent nature of drug dealing at specific locations as well as the sporadic tendency of assault incidents. Abstract Street profile analysis is a new method for analyzing temporal and spatial crime patterns along major roadways in metropolitan areas. This crime mapping technique allows for the identification of crime patterns along these street segments. These are linear spaces where aggregate crime patterns merge with crime attractors generators and human movement to demonstrate how directionality is embedded in city infrastructures. Visually presenting the interplay between these criminological concepts and land use can improve police crime management strategies. This research presents how this crime mapping technique can be applied to a major roadway in Burnaby, Canada. This technique is contrasted with other crime mapping methods to demonstrate the utility of this approach when analyzing the rate and velocity of crime patterns overtime and in space. Preface to the Fifth Edition Acknowledgments About the Authors Chapter 1: Eight Fallacies about Crime The Dramatic Fallacy The Cops and Courts Fallacy The Not-Me Fallacy The Innocent- Youth Fallacy The Ingenuity Fallacy The Organized Crime Fallacy The Big Gang Fallacy The Agenda Fallacy Chapter 2: The Chemistry for Crime Risky Settings Stages of a Criminal Act First Three Elements of a Criminal Act Eck's Crime Triangle Predatory Crimes Calming the Waters and Looking after Places Hot Products The General Chemistry of Crime Chapter 3: Offenders Make Decisions The Decision to Commit a Crime Offenders Respond to Everyday Cues Odd and Bizarre Crimes Chapter 4: How Violence Erupts Making Students Angry in a Lab In Real Life Fights vs. Predatory Attacks Violent Decisions It Might Not Work Out Well Chapter 5: Bringing Crime to You Four Stages in the History of Everyday Life Life and Crime in the Convergent City Crime and the Divergent Metropolis Population Density, Shifts, and Patterns of Crime The Great Paradox: Central City Problems Versus Self-Report Evidence Chapter 6: Teenage Crime Perspective on Youth Crime Teenage Zigzags Chapter 7: Big Gang Theory What are Gang Crimes? Fundamentals The Puzzle The Reason for a Gang Chapter 8: Crime Multipliers One Crime Requires Another One Crime Disinhibits Another One Crime Advertises Another One Crime Entices Another One Crime Sets Up Another One Crime Escalates Into Another One Crime Starts A Victim Chain One Co-Offender Attacks Another Chapter 9: Moving Stolen Goods The Thief and the Public Inviting People to Steal More It's Easier to Sell Stolen Goods to the Poor New Avenues for Stolen Goods Chapter 10: Situational Crime Prevention Four Natural Experiments Situational Prevention and Crime Analysis Diverse Applications of Situational Crime Prevention Chapter 11: Local Design Against Crime Remarkable Research on Local Supervision Oscar Newman's Four Types of Space Versions of a Village The Offender-Target Convergence Process Seven Studies in Reducing Local Crime Chapter 12: "White-Collar" Crime How Offenders Get to Their Targets Crimes of Specialized Access Organizational Rank The Specialized-Access Crime Grid Chapter 13: Crime and Social Change Technology, Rightly Understood The Clean Water Example A General Approach: Summing Up This Book How to Think about Changing Crime References Index Advancements in mobile technology and computing have fostered the collection of a large number of civic datasets that capture the pulse of urban life. Furthermore, the open government and data initiative has led many local authorities to make these datasets publicly available, hoping to drive innovation that will further improve the quality of life for the city-dwellers. In this paper, we develop a novel application that utilizes crime data to provide safe urban navigation. Specifically, using crime data from Chicago and Philadelphia we develop a risk model for their street urban network, which allows us to estimate the relative probability of a crime on any road segment. Given such model we define two variants of the SafePaths problem where the goal is to find a short and low-risk path between a source and a destination location. Since both the length and the risk of the path are equally important but cannot be combined into a single objective, we approach the urban-navigation problem as a biobjective shortest path problem. Our algorithms aim to output a small set of paths that provide tradeoffs between distance and safety. Our experiments demonstrate the efficacy of our algorithms and their practical applicability. Abstract This short paper introduces the six papers comprising the Special Section on Crime Forecasting. A longer title for the section could have been “Forecasting crime for policy and planning decisions and in support of tactical deployment of police resources.” Crime forecasting for police is relatively new. It has been made relevant by recent criminological theories, made possible by recent information technologies including geographic information systems (GIS), and made desirable because of innovative crime management practices. While focused primarily on the police component of the criminal justice system, the six papers provide a wide range of forecasting settings and models including UK and US jurisdictions, long- and short-term horizons, univariate and multivariate methods, and fixed boundary versus ad hoc spatial cluster areal units for the space and time series data. Furthermore, the papers include several innovations for forecast models, with many driven by unique features of the problem area and data. In this paper, we perform an empirical analysis of the cyber criminal ecosystem on Twitter. Essentially, through analyzing inner social relationships in the criminal account community, we find that criminal accounts tend to be socially connected, forming a small-world network. We also find that criminal hubs, sitting in the center of the social graph, are more inclined to follow criminal accounts. Through analyzing outer social relationships between criminal accounts and their social friends outside the criminal account community, we reveal three categories of accounts that have close friendships with criminal accounts. Through these analyses, we provide a novel and effective criminal account inference algorithm by exploiting criminal accounts' social relationships and semantic coordinations. This chapter examines the possibility to analyze and compare human activities in an urban environment based on the detection of mobile phone usage patterns. Thanks to an unprecedented collection of counter data recording the number of calls, SMS, and data transfers resolved both in time and space, we confirm the connection between temporal activity profile and land usage in three global cities: New York, London, and Hong Kong. By comparing whole cities’ typical patterns, we provide insights on how cultural, technological, and economical factors shape human dynamics. At a more local scale, we use clustering analysis to identify locations with similar patterns within a city. Our research reveals a universal structure of cities, with core financial centers all sharing similar activity patterns and commercial or residential areas with more city-specific patterns. These findings hint that as the economy becomes more global, common patterns emerge in business areas of different cities across the globe, while the impact of local conditions still remains recognizable on the level of routine people activity. CrimeStat is a spatial statistics program used in crime mapping. The program inputs incident or point locations and outputs statistics that can be displayed graphically in a geographic information systems (GIS) program. Among the routines are those for summary spatial description, hot spot analysis, interpolation, space–time analysis, and journey-to-crime modeling. Version 3.0 has a crime travel demand module for analyzing travel patterns over a metropolitan area. The program and documentation are distributed by the National Institute of Justice. We compare the structural properties of the street networks of ten different European cities using their primal representation. We investigate the properties of the geometry of the networks and a set of centrality measures highlighting differences and similarities between cases. In particular, we found that cities share structural similarities due to their quasiplanarity but that there are also several distinctive geometrical properties. A principal component analysis is performed on the distributions of centralities and their respective moments, which is used to find distinctive characteristics by which we can classify cities into families. We believe that, beyond the improvement of the empirical knowledge on streets' network properties, our findings can open new perspectives into the scientific relationship between city planning and complex networks, stimulating the debate on the effectiveness of the set of knowledge that statistical physics can contribute for city planning and urban-morphology studies. A consistent trade-off facing participants in any criminal network is that between organizing for efficiency or security—participants collectively pursue an objective while keeping the action leading to that goal concealed. Which side of the trade-off is prioritized depends on the objective that is pursued by the criminal group. The distinction is most salient when comparing terrorist with criminal enterprise networks. Terrorist networks are ideologically driven, while criminal enterprises pursue monetary ends. Time-to-task is shorter in the criminal enterprise and group efficiency is therefore prioritized over group security. Terrorist networks, in contrast, have longer horizons and security is prioritized over the execution of any single attack. Using Krebs’ exploratory research on networks of terrorist cells and electronic surveillance transcripts of a drug importation network, our analyses demonstrate how these opposing trade-offs emerge in criminal group structures. People spend most of their time at a few key locations, such as home and work. Being able to identify how the movements of people cluster around these "important places" is crucial for a range of technology and policy decisions in areas such as telecommunications and transportation infrastructure deployment. In this paper, we propose new techniques based on clustering and regression for analyzing anonymized cellular network data to identify generally important locations, and to discern semantically meaningful locations such as home and work. Starting with temporally sparse and spatially coarse location information, we propose a new algorithm to identify important locations. We test this algorithm on arbitrary cellphone users, including those with low call rates, and find that we are within 3 miles of ground truth for 88 of volunteer users. Further, after locating home and work, we achieve commute distance estimates that are within 1 mile of equivalent estimates derived from government census data. Finally, we perform carbon footprint analyses on hundreds of thousands of anonymous users as an example of how our data and algorithms can form an accurate and efficient underpinning for policy and infrastructure studies. Abstract This paper investigates the effect of economic conditions (carrots) and sanctions (sticks) on murder, assault, robbery, burglary, motor vehicle theft, grand larceny, and rape in New York City, using monthly time‐series data spanning 1974–99. Carrots are measured by the unemployment rate and the real minimum wage; sticks are measured by the number of felony arrests, size of the police force, and number of New York City residents in prison. In addition, the paper tests the validity of the “broken windows” hypothesis. Consistent with its implementation by the New York Police Department, we use misdemeanor arrests as a measure of broken‐windows policing. The broken‐windows hypothesis has validity in the case of robbery, motor vehicle theft, and grand larceny. While both economic and deterrence variables are important in explaining the decline in crime, the contribution of deterrence measures is larger than those of economic variables. Environments such as schools, public parks and prisonsand others that contain a large number of people are typi-cally characterized by frequent and complex social interac-tions. In order to identify activities and behaviors in suchenvironments, it is necessary to understand the interactionsthat take place at a group level. To this end, this paper ad-dresses the problem of detecting and predicting suspiciousand in particular aggressive behaviors between groups ofindividuals such as gangs in prison yards. The work buildson a mature multi-camera multi-target person tracking sys-tem that operates in real-time and has the ability to han-dle crowded conditions. We consider two approaches forgrouping individuals: (i) agglomerative clustering favoredby the computer vision community, as well as (ii) decisiveclustering based on the concept of modularity, which is fa-vored by the social network analysis community. We showthe utility of such grouping analysis towards the detectionof group activities of interest. The presented algorithm isintegrated with a system operating in real-time to success-fully detect highly realistic aggressive behaviors enacted bycorrectional officers in a simulated prison environment. Wepresent results from these enactments that demonstrate theefficacy of our approach. The high degree of variance of crime rates across space (and across time) is one of the oldest puzzles in the social sciences (see Quetelet (1835)). Our empirical work strongly suggests that this variance is not the result of observed or unobserved geographic attributes. This paper presents a model where social interactions create enough covariance across individuals to explain the high cross- city variance of crime rates. This model provides a natural index of social interactions which can compare the degree of social interaction across crimes, across geographic 1units and across time. Our index gives similar results for different data samples and suggests that the amount of social interactions are highest in petty crimes (such as larceny and auto theft), moderate in more serious crimes (assault, burglary and robbery) and almost negligible in murder and rape. The index of social interactions is also applied to non-criminal choices and we find that there is substantial interaction in schooling choice. In this paper we present our tool LogAnalysis for forensic visual statistical analysis of mobile phone traffic. LogAnalysis graphically represents the relationships among mobile phone users with a node-link layout. Its aim is to explore the structure of a large graph, measure connectivity among users and give support to visual search and automatic identification of organizations. To do so, LogAnalysis integrates graphical representation of network elements with measures typical of Social Network Analysis (SNA) in order to help detectives or forensic analysts to systematically examine relationships. The analysis of data extracted from mobile phone traffic logs has a fundamental relevance in forensic investigations since it allows to unveil the structure of relationships among individuals suspected to be part of criminal organizations together with the role they play inside the organization itself. To this purpose, the Social Network Analysis (SNA) methods were heavily employed in order to understand the importance of relationships. Interpretation and visual exploration of graphs representing phone contacts over a given time interval may become demanding, due to the presence of numerous nodes and edges. Our main contribution is an interface that enables systematic analysis of social relationships using visual different techniques and statistical information. LogAnalysis allows a deeper and clearer understanding of criminal associations while evidencing key members inside the criminal ring, and or those working as link among different associations Network theory has established itself as an appropriate tool for complex systems analysis and pattern recognition. In the context of spatiotemporal data analysis, correlation networks are used in the vast majority of works. However, the Pearson correlation coefficient captures only linear relationships and does not correctly capture recurrent events. This missed information is essential for temporal pattern recognition. In this work, we propose a chronological network construction process that is capable of capturing various events. Similar to the previous methods, we divide the area of study into grid cells and represent them by nodes. In our approach, links are established if two consecutive events occur in two different nodes. Our method is computationally efficient, adaptable to different time windows and can be applied to any spatiotemporal data set. As a proof-of-concept, we evaluated the proposed approach by constructing chronological networks from the MODIS dataset for fire events in the Amazon basin. We explore two data analytic approaches: one static and another temporal. The results show some activity patterns on the fire events and a displacement phenomenon over the year. The validity of the analyses in this application indicates that our data modeling approach is very promising for spatio-temporal data mining. Complex systems in nature and in society are often represented as networks, describing the rich set of interactions between objects of interest. Many deterministic and probabilistic clustering methods have been developed to analyze such structures. Given a network, almost all of them partition the vertices into disjoint clusters, according to their connection profile. However, recent studies have shown that these techniques were too restrictive and that most of the existing networks contained overlapping clusters. To tackle this issue, we present in this paper the Overlapping Stochastic Block Model. Our approach allows the vertices to belong to multiple clusters, and, to some extent, generalizes the well-known Stochastic Block Model [Nowicki and Snijders (2001)]. We show that the model is generically identifiable within classes of equivalence and we propose an approximate inference procedure, based on global and local variational techniques. Using toy data sets as well as the French Political Blogosphere network and the transcriptional network of Saccharomyces cerevisiae, we compare our work with other approaches.