In this paper, we propose an offline counterfactual policy estimation framework called Genie to optimize Sponsored Search Marketplace. Genie employs an open box simulation engine with click calibration model to compute the KPI impact of any modification to the system. From the experimental results on Bing traffic, we showed that Genie performs better than existing observational approaches that employs randomized experiments for traffic slices that have frequent policy updates. We also show that Genie can be used to tune completely new policies efficiently without creating risky randomized experiments due to cold start problem. As time of today, Genie hosts more than 10000 optimization jobs yearly which runs more than 30 Million processing node hours of big data jobs for Bing Ads. For the last 3 years, Genie has been proven to be the one of the major platforms to optimize Bing Ads Marketplace due to its reliability under frequent policy changes and its efficiency to minimize risks in real experiments.
Our focus in this paper is to propose efficient counterfactual estimator for practical tuning problems within the context of Sponsored Search System. In particular, we target on tuning scenarios where @math testing and existing observational approaches can not work efficiently. We split the causal graph for the sponsored search problem into input and system layer and apply different methodologies to predict outcomes. While machine learning methods gives very good results for predicting user click behaviors @cite_3 @cite_12 @cite_16 , we used log replay based to estimate the outcome of the sponsored search system. The reader could think of applying similar approaches for policy optimization problem when training data is very noisy due to frequent system changes or when it is not practical to create online experiment with the proposed modification.
@cite_16 @cite_12 @cite_3
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We develop a learning principle and an efficient algorithm for batch learning from logged bandit feedback. This learning setting is ubiquitous in online systems (e.g., ad placement, web search, recommendation), where an algorithm makes a prediction (e.g., ad ranking) for a given input (e.g., query) and observes bandit feedback (e.g., user clicks on presented ads). We first address the counterfactual nature of the learning problem (, 2013) through propensity scoring. Next, we prove generalization error bounds that account for the variance of the propensity-weighted empirical risk estimator. In analogy to the Structural Risk Minimization principle of Wapnik and Tscherwonenkis (1979), these constructive bounds give rise to the Counterfactual Risk Minimization (CRM) principle. We show how CRM can be used to derive a new learning method--called Policy Optimizer for Exponential Models (POEM)--for learning stochastic linear rules for structured output prediction. We present a decomposition of the POEM objective that enables efficient stochastic gradient optimization. The effectiveness and efficiency of POEM is evaluated on several simulated multi-label classification problems, as well as on a real-world information retrieval problem. The empirical results show that the CRM objective implemented in POEM provides improved robustness and generalization performance compared to the state-of-the-art. We develop a learning principle and an efficient algorithm for batch learning from logged bandit feedback. This learning setting is ubiquitous in online systems (e.g., ad placement, web search, recommendation), where an algorithm makes a prediction (e.g., ad ranking) for a given input (e.g., query) and observes bandit feedback (e.g., user clicks on presented ads). We first address the counterfactual nature of the learning problem through propensity scoring. Next, we prove generalization error bounds that account for the variance of the propensity-weighted empirical risk estimator. These constructive bounds give rise to the Counterfactual Risk Minimization (CRM) principle. We show how CRM can be used to derive a new learning method -- called Policy Optimizer for Exponential Models (POEM) -- for learning stochastic linear rules for structured output prediction. We present a decomposition of the POEM objective that enables efficient stochastic gradient optimization. POEM is evaluated on several multi-label classification problems showing substantially improved robustness and generalization performance compared to the state-of-the-art. Optimizing an interactive system against a predefined online metric is particularly challenging, especially when the metric is computed from user feedback such as clicks and payments. The key challenge is the counterfactual nature: in the case of Web search, any change to a component of the search engine may result in a different search result page for the same query, but we normally cannot infer reliably from search log how users would react to the new result page. Consequently, it appears impossible to accurately estimate online metrics that depend on user feedback, unless the new engine is actually run to serve live users and compared with a baseline in a controlled experiment. This approach, while valid and successful, is unfortunately expensive and time-consuming. In this paper, we propose to address this problem using causal inference techniques, under the contextual-bandit framework. This approach effectively allows one to run potentially many online experiments offline from search log, making it possible to estimate and optimize online metrics quickly and inexpensively. Focusing on an important component in a commercial search engine, we show how these ideas can be instantiated and applied, and obtain very promising results that suggest the wide applicability of these techniques. We consider the problem of learning to act in partially observable, continuous-state-and-action worlds where we have abstract prior knowledge about the structure of the optimal policy in the form of a distribution over policies. Using ideas from planning-as-inference reductions and Bayesian unsupervised learning, we cast Markov Chain Monte Carlo as a stochastic, hill-climbing policy search algorithm. Importantly, this algorithm's search bias is directly tied to the prior and its MCMC proposal kernels, which means we can draw on the full Bayesian toolbox to express the search bias, including nonparametric priors and structured, recursive processes like grammars over action sequences. Furthermore, we can reason about uncertainty in the search bias itself by constructing a hierarchical prior and reasoning about latent variables that determine the abstract structure of the policy. This yields an adaptive search algorithm--our algorithm learns to learn a structured policy efficiently. We show how inference over the latent variables in these policy priors enables intra- and intertask transfer of abstract knowledge. We demonstrate the flexibility of this approach by learning meta search biases, by constructing a nonparametric finite state controller to model memory, by discovering motor primitives using a simple grammar over primitive actions, and by combining all three. In this paper, we make two contributions to unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA) using the convolutional neural network (CNN). First, our approach transfers knowledge in all the convolutional layers through attention alignment. Most previous methods align high-level representations, e.g., activations of the fully connected (FC) layers. In these methods, however, the convolutional layers which underpin critical low-level domain knowledge cannot be updated directly towards reducing domain discrepancy. Specifically, we assume that the discriminative regions in an image are relatively invariant to image style changes. Based on this assumption, we propose an attention alignment scheme on all the target convolutional layers to uncover the knowledge shared by the source domain. Second, we estimate the posterior label distribution of the unlabeled data for target network training. Previous methods, which iteratively update the pseudo labels by the target network and refine the target network by the updated pseudo labels, are vulnerable to label estimation errors. Instead, our approach uses category distribution to calculate the cross-entropy loss for training, thereby ameliorating the error accumulation of the estimated labels. The two contributions allow our approach to outperform the state-of-the-art methods by +2.6 on the Office-31 dataset. This paper identifies a severe problem of the counterfactual risk estimator typically used in batch learning from logged bandit feedback (BLBF), and proposes the use of an alternative estimator that avoids this problem. In the BLBF setting, the learner does not receive full-information feedback like in supervised learning, but observes feedback only for the actions taken by a historical policy. This makes BLBF algorithms particularly attractive for training online systems (e.g., ad placement, web search, recommendation) using their historical logs. The Counterfactual Risk Minimization (CRM) principle [1] offers a general recipe for designing BLBF algorithms. It requires a counterfactual risk estimator, and virtually all existing works on BLBF have focused on a particular unbiased estimator. We show that this conventional estimator suffers from a propensity overfitting problem when used for learning over complex hypothesis spaces. We propose to replace the risk estimator with a self-normalized estimator, showing that it neatly avoids this problem. This naturally gives rise to a new learning algorithm - Normalized Policy Optimizer for Exponential Models (Norm-POEM) - for structured output prediction using linear rules. We evaluate the empirical effectiveness of Norm-POEM on several multi-label classification problems, finding that it consistently outperforms the conventional estimator. Machine learning is now being used to make crucial decisions about people's lives. For nearly all of these decisions there is a risk that individuals of a certain race, gender, sexual orientation, or any other subpopulation are unfairly discriminated against. Our recent method has demonstrated how to use techniques from counterfactual inference to make predictions fair across different subpopulations. This method requires that one provides the causal model that generated the data at hand. In general, validating all causal implications of the model is not possible without further assumptions. Hence, it is desirable to integrate competing causal models to provide counterfactually fair decisions, regardless of which causal "world" is the correct one. In this paper, we show how it is possible to make predictions that are approximately fair with respect to multiple possible causal models at once, thus mitigating the problem of exact causal specification. We frame the goal of learning a fair classifier as an optimization problem with fairness constraints entailed by competing causal explanations. We show how this optimization problem can be efficiently solved using gradient-based methods. We demonstrate the flexibility of our model on two real-world fair classification problems. We show that our model can seamlessly balance fairness in multiple worlds with prediction accuracy. Click prediction is one of the fundamental problems in sponsored search. Most of existing studies took advantage of machine learning approaches to predict ad click for each event of ad view independently. However, as observed in the real-world sponsored search system, user's behaviors on ads yield high dependency on how the user behaved along with the past time, especially in terms of what queries she submitted, what ads she clicked or ignored, and how long she spent on the landing pages of clicked ads, etc. Inspired by these observations, we introduce a novel framework based on Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN). Compared to traditional methods, this framework directly models the dependency on user's sequential behaviors into the click prediction process through the recurrent structure in RNN. Large scale evaluations on the click-through logs from a commercial search engine demonstrate that our approach can significantly improve the click prediction accuracy, compared to sequence-independent approaches. We propose a novel approach for inferring the individualized causal effects of a treatment (intervention) from observational data. Our approach conceptualizes causal inference as a multitask learning problem; we model a subject's potential outcomes using a deep multitask network with a set of shared layers among the factual and counterfactual outcomes, and a set of outcome-specific layers. The impact of selection bias in the observational data is alleviated via a propensity-dropout regularization scheme, in which the network is thinned for every training example via a dropout probability that depends on the associated propensity score. The network is trained in alternating phases, where in each phase we use the training examples of one of the two potential outcomes (treated and control populations) to update the weights of the shared layers and the respective outcome-specific layers. Experiments conducted on data based on a real-world observational study show that our algorithm outperforms the state-of-the-art. While classic machine learning paradigms assume training and test data are generated from the same process, domain adaptation addresses the more realistic setting in which the learner has large quantities of labeled data from some source task but limited or no labeled data from the target task it is attempting to learn. In this work, we give the first formal analysis showing that using active learning for domain adaptation yields a way to address the statistical challenges inherent in this setting. We propose a novel nonparametric algorithm, ANDA, that combines an active nearest neighbor querying strategy with nearest neighbor prediction. We provide analyses of its querying behavior and of finite sample convergence rates of the resulting classifier under covariate shift. Our experiments show that ANDA successfully corrects for dataset bias in multiclass image categorization. In this paper, we address the problem of 3D object instance recognition and pose estimation of localized objects in cluttered environments using convolutional neural networks. Inspired by the descriptor learning approach of , we propose a method that introduces the dynamic margin in the manifold learning triplet loss function. Such a loss function is designed to map images of different objects under different poses to a lower-dimensional, similarity-preserving descriptor space on which efficient nearest neighbor search algorithms can be applied. Introducing the dynamic margin allows for faster training times and better accuracy of the resulting low-dimensional manifolds. Furthermore, we contribute the following: adding in-plane rotations (ignored by the baseline method) to the training, proposing new background noise types that help to better mimic realistic scenarios and improve accuracy with respect to clutter, adding surface normals as another powerful image modality representing an object surface leading to better performance than merely depth, and finally implementing an efficient online batch generation that allows for better variability during the training phase. We perform an exhaustive evaluation to demonstrate the effects of our contributions. Additionally, we assess the performance of the algorithm on the large BigBIRD dataset to demonstrate good scalability properties of the pipeline with respect to the number of models. Recently, neuron activations extracted from a pre-trained convolutional neural network (CNN) show promising performance in various visual tasks. However, due to the domain and task bias, using the features generated from the model pre-trained for image classification as image representations for instance retrieval is problematic. In this paper, we propose quartet-net learning to improve the discriminative power of CNN features for instance retrieval. The general idea is to map the features into a space where the image similarity can be better evaluated. Our network differs from the traditional Siamese-net in two ways. First, we adopt a double-margin contrastive loss with a dynamic margin tuning strategy to train the network which leads to more robust performance. Second, we introduce in the mimic learning regularization to improve the generalization ability of the network by preventing it from overfitting to the training data. Catering for the network learning, we collect a large-scale dataset, namely GeoPair, which consists of 68k matching image pairs and 63k non-matching pairs. Experiments on several standard instance retrieval datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method. Abstract Visual tracking algorithms based on structured output support vector machine (SOSVM) have demonstrated excellent performance. However, sampling methods and optimization strategies of SOSVM undesirably increase the computational overloads, which hinder real-time application of these algorithms. Moreover, due to the lack of high-dimensional features and dense training samples, SOSVM-based algorithms are unstable to deal with various challenging scenarios, such as occlusions and scale variations. Recently, visual tracking algorithms based on discriminative correlation filters (DCF), especially the combination of DCF and features from deep convolutional neural networks (CNN), have been successfully applied to visual tracking, and attains surprisingly good performance on recent benchmarks. The success is mainly attributed to two aspects: the circular correlation properties of DCF and the powerful representation capabilities of CNN features. Nevertheless, compared with SOSVM, DCF-based algorithms are restricted to simple ridge regression which has a weaker discriminative ability. In this paper, a novel circular and structural operator tracker (CSOT) is proposed for high performance visual tracking, it not only possesses the powerful discriminative capability of SOSVM but also efficiently inherits the superior computational efficiency of DCF. Based on the proposed circular and structural operators, a set of primal confidence score maps can be obtained by circular correlating feature maps with their corresponding structural correlation filters. Furthermore, an implicit interpolation is applied to convert the multi-resolution feature maps to the continuous domain and make all primal confidence score maps have the same spatial resolution. Then, we exploit an efficient ensemble post-processor based on relative entropy, which can coalesce primal confidence score maps and create an optimal confidence score map for more accurate localization. The target is localized on the peak of the optimal confidence score map. Besides, we introduce a collaborative optimization strategy to update circular and structural operators by iteratively training structural correlation filters, which significantly reduces computational complexity and improves robustness. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance in mean AUC scores of 71.5 and 69.4 on the OTB2013 and OTB2015 benchmarks respectively, and obtains a third-best expected average overlap (EAO) score of 29.8 on the VOT2017 benchmark. This paper proposes a novel approach for constructing effective personalized policies when the observed data lacks counter-factual information, is biased and possesses many features. The approach is applicable in a wide variety of settings from healthcare to advertising to education to finance. These settings have in common that the decision maker can observe, for each previous instance, an array of features of the instance, the action taken in that instance, and the reward realized -- but not the rewards of actions that were not taken: the counterfactual information. Learning in such settings is made even more difficult because the observed data is typically biased by the existing policy (that generated the data) and because the array of features that might affect the reward in a particular instance -- and hence should be taken into account in deciding on an action in each particular instance -- is often vast. The approach presented here estimates propensity scores for the observed data, infers counterfactuals, identifies a (relatively small) number of features that are (most) relevant for each possible action and instance, and prescribes a policy to be followed. Comparison of the proposed algorithm against the state-of-art algorithm on actual datasets demonstrates that the proposed algorithm achieves a significant improvement in performance. The rapidly evolving landscape of multicore architectures makes the construction of efficient libraries a daunting task. A family of methods known collectively as “auto-tuning” has emerged to address this challenge. Two major approaches to auto-tuning are empirical and model-based: empirical autotuning is a generic but slow approach that works by measuring runtimes of candidate implementations, model-based auto-tuning predicts those runtimes using simplified abstractions designed by hand. We show that machine learning methods for non-linear regression can be used to estimate timing models from data, capturing the best of both approaches. A statistically-derived model offers the speed of a model-based approach, with the generality and simplicity of empirical auto-tuning. We validate our approach using the filterbank correlation kernel described in Pinto and Cox [2012], where we find that 0.1 seconds of hill climbing on the regression model (“predictive auto-tuning”) can achieve almost the same speed-up as is brought by minutes of empirical auto-tuning. Our approach is not specific to filterbank correlation, nor even to GPU kernel auto-tuning, and can be applied to almost any templated-code optimization problem, spanning a wide variety of problem types, kernel types, and platforms. Predicting user responses, such as click-through rate and conversion rate, are critical in many web applications including web search, personalised recommendation, and online advertising. Different from continuous raw features that we usually found in the image and audio domains, the input features in web space are always of multi-field and are mostly discrete and categorical while their dependencies are little known. Major user response prediction models have to either limit themselves to linear models or require manually building up high-order combination features. The former loses the ability of exploring feature interactions, while the latter results in a heavy computation in the large feature space. To tackle the issue, we propose two novel models using deep neural networks (DNNs) to automatically learn effective patterns from categorical feature interactions and make predictions of users’ ad clicks. To get our DNNs efficiently work, we propose to leverage three feature transformation methods, i.e., factorisation machines (FMs), restricted Boltzmann machines (RBMs) and denoising auto-encoders (DAEs). This paper presents the structure of our models and their efficient training algorithms. The large-scale experiments with real-world data demonstrate that our methods work better than major state-of-the-art models. Until recently, the lack of ground truth data has hindered the application of discriminative structured prediction techniques to the stereo problem. In this paper we use ground truth data sets that we have recently constructed to explore different model structures and parameter learning techniques. To estimate parameters in Markov random fields (MRFs) via maximum likelihood one usually needs to perform approximate probabilistic inference. Conditional random fields (CRFs) are discriminative versions of traditional MRFs. We explore a number of novel CRF model structures including a CRF for stereo matching with an explicit occlusion model. CRFs require expensive inference steps for each iteration of optimization and inference is particularly slow when there are many discrete states. We explore belief propagation, variational message passing and graph cuts as inference methods during learning and compare with learning via pseudolikelihood. To accelerate approximate inference we have developed a new method called sparse variational message passing which can reduce inference time by an order of magnitude with negligible loss in quality. Learning using sparse variational message passing improves upon previous approaches using graph cuts and allows efficient learning over large data sets when energy functions violate the constraints imposed by graph cuts. Predicting user responses, such as click-through rate and conversion rate, are critical in many web applications including web search, personalised recommendation, and online advertising. Different from continuous raw features that we usually found in the image and audio domains, the input features in web space are always of multi-field and are mostly discrete and categorical while their dependencies are little known. Major user response prediction models have to either limit themselves to linear models or require manually building up high-order combination features. The former loses the ability of exploring feature interactions, while the latter results in a heavy computation in the large feature space. To tackle the issue, we propose two novel models using deep neural networks (DNNs) to automatically learn effective patterns from categorical feature interactions and make predictions of users' ad clicks. To get our DNNs efficiently work, we propose to leverage three feature transformation methods, i.e., factorisation machines (FMs), restricted Boltzmann machines (RBMs) and denoising auto-encoders (DAEs). This paper presents the structure of our models and their efficient training algorithms. The large-scale experiments with real-world data demonstrate that our methods work better than major state-of-the-art models. Given a convolutional neural network (CNN) that is pre-trained for object classification, this paper proposes to use active question-answering to semanticize neural patterns in conv-layers of the CNN and mine part concepts. For each part concept, we mine neural patterns in the pre-trained CNN, which are related to the target part, and use these patterns to construct an And-Or graph (AOG) to represent a four-layer semantic hierarchy of the part. As an interpretable model, the AOG associates different CNN units with different explicit object parts. We use an active human-computer communication to incrementally grow such an AOG on the pre-trained CNN as follows. We allow the computer to actively identify objects, whose neural patterns cannot be explained by the current AOG. Then, the computer asks human about the unexplained objects, and uses the answers to automatically discover certain CNN patterns corresponding to the missing knowledge. We incrementally grow the AOG to encode new knowledge discovered during the active-learning process. In experiments, our method exhibits high learning efficiency. Our method uses about 1 6&#x2013;1 3 of the part annotations for training, but achieves similar or better part-localization performance than fast-RCNN methods. Recommending phrases from web pages for advertisers to bid on against search engine queries is an important research problem with direct commercial impact. Most approaches have found it infeasible to determine the relevance of all possible queries to a given ad landing page and have focussed on making recommendations from a small set of phrases extracted (and expanded) from the page using NLP and ranking based techniques. In this paper, we eschew this paradigm, and demonstrate that it is possible to efficiently predict the relevant subset of queries from a large set of monetizable ones by posing the problem as a multi-label learning task with each query being represented by a separate label. We develop Multi-label Random Forests to tackle problems with millions of labels. Our proposed classifier has prediction costs that are logarithmic in the number of labels and can make predictions in a few milliseconds using 10 Gb of RAM. We demonstrate that it is possible to generate training data for our classifier automatically from click logs without any human annotation or intervention. We train our classifier on tens of millions of labels, features and training points in less than two days on a thousand node cluster. We develop a sparse semi-supervised multi-label learning formulation to deal with training set biases and noisy labels harvested automatically from the click logs. This formulation is used to infer a belief in the state of each label for each training ad and the random forest classifier is extended to train on these beliefs rather than the given labels. Experiments reveal significant gains over ranking and NLP based techniques on a large test set of 5 million ads using multiple metrics.