We consider a variant of the multi-armed bandit model, which we call multi-armed bandit problem with known trend, where the gambler knows the shape of the reward function of each arm but not its distribution. This new problem is motivated by different online problems like active learning, music and interface recommendation applications, where when an arm is sampled by the model the received reward change according to a known trend. By adapting the standard multi-armed bandit algorithm UCB1 to take advantage of this setting, we propose the new algorithm named A-UCB that assumes a stochastic model. We provide upper bounds of the regret which compare favourably with the ones of UCB1. We also confirm that experimentally with different simulations
Motivated by task scheduling, the author in @cite_7 proposed a policy where only the state of the arm currently selected can change in a given step, and proved its optimality for time discounting. This result gave rise to a rich line of work. For example, @cite_6 @cite_2 studied the restless bandits, where the states of all arms can change in each step according to an arbitrary stochastic transition function.
@cite_6 @cite_7 @cite_2
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This paper studies a generalized class of restless multi-armed bandits with hidden states and allow cumulative feedback, as opposed to the conventional instantaneous feedback. We call them lazy restless bandits (LRBs) as the events of decision making are sparser than the events of state transition. Hence, feedback after each decision event is the cumulative effect of the following state transition events. The states of arms are hidden from the decision maker and rewards for actions are state dependent. The decision maker needs to choose one arm in each decision interval, such that the long-term cumulative reward is maximized. As the states are hidden, the decision maker maintains and updates its belief about them. It is shown that LRBs admit an optimal policy which has threshold structure in belief space. The Whittle-index policy for solving the LRB problem is analyzed; indexability of LRBs is shown. Further, the closed-form index expressions are provided for two sets of special cases; for more general cases, an algorithm for index computation is provided. An extensive simulation study is presented; Whittle-index, modified Whittle-index, and myopic policies are compared. The Lagrangian relaxation of the problem provides an upper bound on the optimal value function; it is used to assess the degree of sub-optimality various policies. The problem of rested and restless multi-armed bandits with constrained availability (RMAB-CA) of arms is considered. The states of arms evolve in Markovian manner and the exact states are hidden from the decision maker. First, some structural results on value functions are claimed. Following these results, the optimal policy turns out to be a threshold policy . Furthermore, indexability is established for both rested and restless RMAB-CAs. An index formula is derived for the rested model, while an algorithm is provided for restless case. In this paper, we consider a class of restless multiarmed bandit processes (RMABs) that arises in dynamic multichannel access, user server scheduling, and optimal activation in multiagent systems. For this class of RMABs, we establish the indexability and obtain Whittle index in closed form for both discounted and average reward criteria. These results lead to a direct implementation of Whittle index policy with remarkably low complexity. When arms are stochastically identical, we show that Whittle index policy is optimal under certain conditions. Furthermore, it has a semiuniversal structure that obviates the need to know the Markov transition probabilities. The optimality and the semiuniversal structure result from the equivalence between Whittle index policy and the myopic policy established in this work. For nonidentical arms, we develop efficient algorithms for computing a performance upper bound given by Lagrangian relaxation. The tightness of the upper bound and the near-optimal performance of Whittle index policy are illustrated with simulation examples. We consider the restless multi-armed bandit (RMAB) problem with unknown dynamics. At each time, a player chooses K out of N (N > K) arms to play. The state of each arm determines the reward when the arm is played and transits according to Markovian rules no matter the arm is engaged or passive. The Markovian dynamics of the arms are unknown to the player. The objective is to maximize the long-term expected reward by designing an optimal arm selection policy. The performance of a policy is measured by regret, defined as the reward loss with respect to the case where the player knows which K arms are the most rewarding and always plays these K best arms. We construct a policy, referred to as Restless Upper Confidence Bound (RUCB), that achieves a regret with logarithmic order of time when an arbitrary nontrivial bound on certain system parameters is known. When no knowledge about the system is available, we extend the RUCB policy to achieve a regret arbitrarily close to the logarithmic order. In both cases, the system achieves the maximum average reward offered by the K best arms. Potential applications of these results include cognitive radio networks, opportunistic communications in unknown fading environments, and financial investment. In the classic Bayesian restless multi-armed bandit (RMAB) problem, there are N arms, with rewards on all arms evolving at each time as Markov chains with known parameters. A player seeks to activate K ≥ 1 arms at each time in order to maximize the expected total reward obtained over multiple plays. RMAB is a challenging problem that is known to be PSPACE-hard in general. We consider in this work the even harder non-Bayesian RMAB, in which the parameters of the Markov chain are assumed to be unknown a priori. We develop an original approach to this problem that is applicable when the corresponding Bayesian problem has the structure that, depending on the known parameter values, the optimal solution is one of a prescribed finite set of policies. In such settings, we propose to learn the optimal policy for the non-Bayesian RMAB by employing a suitable meta-policy which treats each policy from this finite set as an arm in a different non-Bayesian multi-armed bandit problem for which a single-arm selection policy is optimal. We demonstrate this approach by developing a novel sensing policy for opportunistic spectrum access over unknown dynamic channels. We prove that our policy achieves near-logarithmic regret (the difference in expected reward compared to a model-aware genie), which leads to the same average reward that can be achieved by the optimal policy under a known model. This is the first such result in the literature for a non-Bayesian RMAB. The restless bandit problem is one of the most well-studied generalizations of the celebrated stochastic multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem in decision theory. In its ultimate generality, the restless bandit problem is known to be PSPACE-Hard to approximate to any nontrivial factor, and little progress has been made on this problem despite its significance in modeling activity allocation under uncertainty. In this article, we consider the Feedback MAB problem, where the reward obtained by playing each of n independent arms varies according to an underlying on off Markov process whose exact state is only revealed when the arm is played. The goal is to design a policy for playing the arms in order to maximize the infinite horizon time average expected reward. This problem is also an instance of a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP), and is widely studied in wireless scheduling and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) routing. Unlike the stochastic MAB problem, the Feedback MAB problem does not admit to greedy index-based optimal policies. We develop a novel duality-based algorithmic technique that yields a surprisingly simple and intuitive (2+e)-approximate greedy policy to this problem. We show that both in terms of approximation factor and computational efficiency, our policy is closely related to the Whittle index, which is widely used for its simplicity and efficiency of computation. Subsequently we define a multi-state generalization, that we term Monotone bandits, which remains subclass of the restless bandit problem. We show that our policy remains a 2-approximation in this setting, and further, our technique is robust enough to incorporate various side-constraints such as blocking plays, switching costs, and even models where determining the state of an arm is a separate operation from playing it. Our technique is also of independent interest for other restless bandit problems, and we provide an example in nonpreemptive machine replenishment. Interestingly, in this case, our policy provides a constant factor guarantee, whereas the Whittle index is provably polynomially worse. By presenting the first O(1) approximations for nontrivial instances of restless bandits as well as of POMDPs, our work initiates the study of approximation algorithms in both these contexts. We consider the restless multiarmed bandit problem with unknown dynamics in which a player chooses one out of N arms to play at each time. The reward state of each arm transits according to an unknown Markovian rule when it is played and evolves according to an arbitrary unknown random process when it is passive. The performance of an arm selection policy is measured by regret, defined as the reward loss with respect to the case where the player knows which arm is the most rewarding and always plays the best arm. We construct a policy with an interleaving exploration and exploitation epoch structure that achieves a regret with logarithmic order. We further extend the problem to a decentralized setting where multiple distributed players share the arms without information exchange. Under both an exogenous restless model and an endogenous restless model, we show that a decentralized extension of the proposed policy preserves the logarithmic regret order as in the centralized setting. The results apply to adaptive learning in various dynamic systems and communication networks, as well as financial investment. We consider a class of restless multi-armed bandit (RMAB) problems with unknown arm dynamics. At each time, a player chooses an arm out of @math arms to play, referred to as an active arm, and receives a random reward from a finite set of reward states. The reward state of the active arm transits according to an unknown Markovian dynamic. The reward state of passive arms (which are not chosen to play at time t) evolves according to an arbitrary unknown random process. The objective is an arm-selection policy that minimizes the regret, defined as the reward loss with respect to a player that always plays the most rewarding arm. This class of RMAB problems has been studied recently in the context of communication networks and financial investment applications. We develop a strategy that selects arms to be played in a consecutive manner in which the selection sequencing rules are adaptively updated controlled by the current sample reward means, referred to as Adaptive Sequencing Rules (ASR) algorithm. By designing judiciously the adaptive sequencing rules of the chosen arms, we show that ASR algorithm achieves a logarithmic regret order with time and a finite-sample bound on the regret is established. Although existing methods have shown a logarithmic regret order with time in this RMAB setting, the theoretical analysis presents significant improvement in the regret scaling with respect to the system parameters under ASR. Extensive simulation results support the theoretical study and demonstrate strong performance of the algorithm as compared to existing methods. We show that if performance measures in a stochastic scheduling problem satisfy a set of so-called partial conservation laws (PCL), which extend previously studied generalized conservation laws (GCL), then the problem is solved optimally by a priority-index policy for an appropriate range of linear performance objectives, where the optimal indices are computed by a one-pass adaptive-greedy algorithm, based on Klimov's. We further apply this framework to investigate the indexability property of restless bandits introduced by Whittle, obtaining the following results: (1) we identify a class of restless bandits (PCL-indexable) which are indexable; membership in this class is tested through a single run of the adaptive-greedy algorithm, which also computes the Whittle indices when the test is positive; this provides a tractable sufficient condition for indexability; (2) we further indentify the class of GCL-indexable bandits, which includes classical bandits, having the property that they are indexable under any linear reward objective. The analysis is based on the so-called achievable region method, as the results follow from new linear programming formulations for the problems investigated. The multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem features the classical tradeoff between exploration and exploitation. The input specifies several stochastic arms which evolve with each pull, and the goal is to maximize the expected reward after a fixed budget of pulls. The celebrated work of , surveyed in [8], presumes a condition on the arms called the martingale assumption. In [9], A. obtained an LP-based 1 48-approximation for the problem with the martingale assumption removed. We improve the algorithm to a 4 27-approximation, with simpler analysis. Our algorithm also generalizes to the case of MAB superprocesses with (stochastic) multi-period actions. This generalization captures the framework introduced by Guha and Munagala in [11], and yields new results for their budgeted learning problems. Also, we obtain a (1 2 -- e)-approximation for the variant of MAB where preemption (playing an arm, switching to another arm, then coming back to the first arm) is not allowed. This contains the stochastic knapsack problem of Dean, Goemans, and Vondrak in [6] with correlated rewards, where we are given a knapsack of fixed size, and a set of jobs each with a joint distribution for its size and reward. The actual size and reward of a job can only be discovered in real-time as it is being scheduled, and the objective is to maximize expected reward before the knapsack size is exhausted. Our (1 2 -- e)-approximation improves the 1 16 and 1 8 approximations in [9] for correlated stochastic knapsack with cancellation and no cancellation, respectively, providing to our knowledge the first tight algorithm for these problems that matches the integrality gap of 2. We sample probabilities from an exponential-sized dynamic programming solution, whose existence is guaranteed by an LP projection argument. We hope this technique can also be applied to other dynamic programming problems which can be projected down onto a small LP. The multiarmed bandit is often used as an analogy for the tradeoff between exploration and exploitation in search problems. The classic problem involves allocating trials to the arms of a multiarmed slot machine to maximize the expected sum of rewards. We pose a new variation of the multiarmed bandit--the Max K-Armed Bandit--in which trials must be allocated among the arms to maximize the expected best single sample reward of the series of trials. Motivation for the Max K-Armed Bandit is the allocation of restarts among a set of multistart stochastic search algorithms. We present an analysis of this Max K-Armed Bandit showing under certain assumptions that the optimal strategy allocates trials to the observed best arm at a rate increasing double exponentially relative to the other arms. This motivates an exploration strategy that follows a Boltzmann distribution with an exponentially decaying temperature parameter. We compare this exploration policy to policies that allocate trials to the observed best arm at rates faster (and slower) than double exponentially. The results confirm, for two scheduling domains, that the double exponential increase in the rate of allocations to the observed best heuristic outperfonns the other approaches. In this paper, we study the online learning problem involving rested and restless bandits, in both a centralized and a decentralized setting. In a centralized setting, the system consists of a single player user and a set of K finite-state discrete-time Markov chains (arms) with unknown state spaces (rewards) and statistics. The objective of the player is to decide in each step which M of the K arms to play over a sequence of trials so as to maximize its long-term reward. In a decentralized setting, multiple uncoordinated players each makes its own decision on which arm to play in a step, and if two or more players select the same arm simultaneously, a collision results and none of the players selecting that arm gets a reward. The objective of each player again is to maximize its long-term reward. We first show that logarithmic regret algorithms exist both for the centralized rested and restless bandit problems. For the decentralized setting, we propose an algorithm with logarithmic regret with respect to the optimal centralized arm allocation. Numerical results and extensive discussion are also provided to highlight insights obtained from this study. We show that the optimal decision policy for several types of Bayesian sequential detection problems has a threshold switching curve structure on the space of posterior distributions. This is established by using lattice programming and stochastic orders in a partially observed Markov decision process (POMDP) framework. A stochastic gradient algorithm is presented to estimate the optimal linear approximation to this threshold curve. We illustrate these results by first considering quickest time detection with phase-type distributed change time and a variance stopping penalty. Then it is proved that the threshold switching curve also arises in several other Bayesian decision problems such as quickest transient detection, exponential delay (risk-sensitive) penalties, stopping time problems in social learning, and multi-agent scheduling in a changing world. Using Blackwell dominance, it is shown that for dynamic decision making problems, the optimal decision policy is lower bounded by a myopic policy. Finally, it is shown how the achievable cost of the optimal decision policy varies with change time distribution by imposing a partial order on transition matrices. Motivated by online recommendation and advertising systems, we consider a causal model for stochastic contextual bandits with a latent low-dimensional confounder. In our model, there are @math observed contexts and @math arms of the bandit. The observed context influences the reward obtained through a latent confounder variable with cardinality @math ( @math ). The arm choice and the latent confounder causally determines the reward while the observed context is correlated with the confounder. Under this model, the @math mean reward matrix @math (for each context in @math and each arm in @math ) factorizes into non-negative factors @math ( @math ) and @math ( @math ). This insight enables us to propose an @math -greedy NMF-Bandit algorithm that designs a sequence of interventions (selecting specific arms), that achieves a balance between learning this low-dimensional structure and selecting the best arm to minimize regret. Our algorithm achieves a regret of @math at time @math , as compared to @math for conventional contextual bandits, assuming a constant gap between the best arm and the rest for each context. These guarantees are obtained under mild sufficiency conditions on the factors that are weaker versions of the well-known Statistical RIP condition. We further propose a class of generative models that satisfy our sufficient conditions, and derive a lower bound of @math . These are the first regret guarantees for online matrix completion with bandit feedback, when the rank is greater than one. We further compare the performance of our algorithm with the state of the art, on synthetic and real world data-sets. We present an algorithm for generating open-loop trajectories that solve the problem of rearrangement planning under uncertainty. We frame this as a selection problem where the goal is to choose the most robust trajectory from a finite set of candidates. We generate each candidate using a kinodynamic state space planner and evaluate it using noisy rollouts. Our key insight is we can formalize the selection problem as the “best arm” variant of the multi-armed bandit problem. We use the successive rejects algorithm to efficiently allocate rollouts between candidate trajectories given a rollout budget. We show that the successive rejects algorithm identifies the best candidate using fewer rollouts than a baseline algorithm in simulation. We also show that selecting a good candidate increases the likelihood of successful execution on a real robot. We consider stochastic multi-armed bandit problems with complex actions over a set of basic arms, where the decision maker plays a complex action rather than a basic arm in each round. The reward of the complex action is some function of the basic arms' rewards, and the feedback observed may not necessarily be the reward perarm. For instance, when the complex actions are subsets of the arms, we may only observe the maximum reward over the chosen subset. Thus, feedback across complex actions may be coupled due to the nature of the reward function. We prove a frequentist regret bound for Thompson sampling in a very general setting involving parameter, action and observation spaces and a likelihood function over them. The bound holds for discretely-supported priors over the parameter space without additional structural properties such as closed-form posteriors, conjugate prior structure or independence across arms. The regret bound scales logarithmically with time but, more importantly, with an improved constant that non-trivially captures the coupling across complex actions due to the structure of the rewards. As applications, we derive improved regret bounds for classes of complex bandit problems involving selecting subsets of arms, including the first nontrivial regret bounds for nonlinear MAX reward feedback from subsets. Using particle filters for computing posterior distributions which lack an explicit closed-form, we present numerical results for the performance of Thompson sampling for subset-selection and job scheduling problems. We develop a mathematical programming approach for the classicalPSPACE-hard restless bandit problem in stochastic optimization. We introduce a hierarchy ofN (whereN is the number of bandits) increasingly stronger linear programming relaxations, the last of which is exact and corresponds to the (exponential size) formulation of the problem as a Markov decision chain, while the other relaxations provide bounds and are efficiently computed. We also propose a priority-index heuristic scheduling policy from the solution to the firstorder relaxation, where the indices are defined in terms of optimal dual variables. In this way we propose a policy and a suboptimality guarantee. We report results of computational experiments that suggest that the proposed heuristic policy is nearly optimal. Moreover, the second-order relaxation is found to provide strong bounds on the optimal value. In budget-limited multi-armed bandit (MAB) problems, the learner's actions are costly and constrained by a fixed budget. Consequently, an optimal exploitation policy may not be to pull the optimal arm repeatedly, as is the case in other variants of MAB, but rather to pull the sequence of different arms that maximises the agent's total reward within the budget. This difference from existing MABs means that new approaches to maximising the total reward are required. Given this, we develop two pulling policies, namely: (i) KUBE; and (ii) fractional KUBE. Whereas the former provides better performance up to 40 in our experimental settings, the latter is computationally less expensive. We also prove logarithmic upper bounds for the regret of both policies, and show that these bounds are asymptotically optimal (i.e. they only differ from the best possible regret by a constant factor). We formulate the following combinatorial multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem: There are N random variables with unknown mean that are each instantiated in an i.i.d. fashion over time. At each time multiple random variables can be selected, subject to an arbitrary constraint on weights associated with the selected variables. All of the selected individual random variables are observed at that time, and a linearly weighted combination of these selected variables is yielded as the reward. The goal is to find a policy that minimizes regret, defined as the difference between the reward obtained by a genie that knows the mean of each random variable, and that obtained by the given policy. This formulation is broadly applicable and useful for stochastic online versions of many interesting tasks in networks that can be formulated as tractable combinatorial optimization problems with linear objective functions, such as maximum weighted matching, shortest path, and minimum spanning tree computations. Prior work on multi-armed bandits with multiple plays cannot be applied to this formulation because of the general nature of the constraint. On the other hand, the mapping of all feasible combinations to arms allows for the use of prior work on MAB with single-play, but results in regret, storage, and computation growing exponentially in the number of unknown variables. We present new efficient policies for this problem that are shown to achieve regret that grows logarithmically with time, and polynomially in the number of unknown variables. Furthermore, these policies only require storage that grows linearly in the number of unknown parameters. For problems where the underlying deterministic problem is tractable, these policies further require only polynomial computation. For computationally intractable problems, we also present results on a different notion of regret that is suitable when a polynomial-time approximation algorithm is used. We consider a non-Bayesian infinite horizon version of the multi-armed bandit problem with the objective of designing simple policies whose regret increases sldwly with time. In their seminal work on this problem, Lai and Robbins had obtained a O(logn) lower bound on the regret with a constant that depends on the KullbackLeibler number. They also constructed policies for some specific families of probability distributions (including exponential families) that achieved the lower bound. In this paper we construct index policies that depend on the rewards from each arm only through their sample mean. These policies are computationally much simpler and are also applicable much more generally. They achieve a O(logn) regret with a constant that is also based on the Kullback-Leibler number. This constant turns out to be optimal for one-parameter exponential families; however, in general it is derived from the optimal one via a 'contraction' principle. Our results rely entirely on a few key lemmas from the theory of large deviations.