Similarity-based approaches represent a promising direction for time series analysis. However, many such methods rely on parameter tuning, and some have shortcomings if the time series are multivariate (MTS), due to dependencies between attributes, or the time series contain missing data. In this paper, we address these challenges within the powerful context of kernel methods by proposing the robust (TCK). The approach taken leverages the missing data handling properties of Gaussian mixture models (GMM) augmented with informative prior distributions. An ensemble learning approach is exploited to ensure robustness to parameters by combining the clustering results of many GMM to form the final kernel. We evaluate the TCK on synthetic and real data and compare to other state-of-the-art techniques. The experimental results demonstrate that the TCK is robust to parameter choices, provides competitive results for MTS without missing data and outstanding results for missing data.
In several cases, the assumption of a single parametric model underlying all the data may be too strong. Additionally, finding the most suitable parametric model is a crucial and often difficult task, which must be repeated every time a new dataset is processed. This issue is addressed by the autoregressive kernel @cite_27 , which evaluates the similarity of two time series on the corresponding likelihood profiles of a vector autoregressive model of a given order, across all possible parameter settings, controlled by a prior. The kernel is then evaluated as the dot product in the parameter space of such profiles, used as sequence representations. The reservoir based kernels @cite_80 , map the time series into a high dimensional, dynamical feature space, where a linear readout is trained to discriminate each signal. These kernels fit reservoir models sharing the same fixed reservoir topology to all time series. Since the reservoir provides a rich pool of dynamical features, it is considered to be generic'' and, contrarily to kernels based on a single parametric model, it is able to represent a wide variety of dynamics for different datasets.
@cite_80 @cite_27
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Pictorial structure (PS) models are extensively used for part-based recognition of scenes, people, animals and multi-part objects. To achieve tractability, the structure and parameterization of the model is often restricted, for example, by assuming tree dependency structure and unimodal, data-independent pairwise interactions. These expressivity restrictions fail to capture important patterns in the data. On the other hand, local methods such as nearest-neighbor classification and kernel density estimation provide non-parametric flexibility but require large amounts of data to generalize well. We propose a simple semi-parametric approach that combines the tractability of pictorial structure inference with the flexibility of non-parametric methods by expressing a subset of model parameters as kernel regression estimates from a learned sparse set of exemplars. This yields query-specific, image-dependent pose priors. We develop an effective shape-based kernel for upper-body pose similarity and propose a leave-one-out loss function for learning a sparse subset of exemplars for kernel regression. We apply our techniques to two challenging datasets of human figure parsing and advance the state-of-the-art (from 80 to 86 on the Buffy dataset [8]), while using only 15 of the training data as exemplars. We consider supervised learning problems within the positive-definite kernel framework, such as kernel ridge regression, kernel logistic regression or the support vector machine. With kernels leading to infinite-dimensional feature spaces, a common practical limiting difficulty is the necessity of computing the kernel matrix, which most frequently leads to algorithms with running time at least quadratic in the number of observations n, i.e., O(n^2). Low-rank approximations of the kernel matrix are often considered as they allow the reduction of running time complexities to O(p^2 n), where p is the rank of the approximation. The practicality of such methods thus depends on the required rank p. In this paper, we show that in the context of kernel ridge regression, for approximations based on a random subset of columns of the original kernel matrix, the rank p may be chosen to be linear in the degrees of freedom associated with the problem, a quantity which is classically used in the statistical analysis of such methods, and is often seen as the implicit number of parameters of non-parametric estimators. This result enables simple algorithms that have sub-quadratic running time complexity, but provably exhibit the same predictive performance than existing algorithms, for any given problem instance, and not only for worst-case situations. We consider supervised learning problems within the positive-definite kernel framework, such as kernel ridge regression, kernel logistic regression or the support vector machine. With kernels leading to infinite-dimensional feature spaces, a common practi cal limiting difficulty is the necessity of computing the kernel matrix, which most frequently leads to algorithms with running time at least quadratic in the number of observations n, i.e., O(n 2 ). Low-rank approximations of the kernel matrix are often considered as they allow the reduction of running time complexities to O(p 2 n), where p is the rank of the approximation. The practicality of such methods thus depends on the required rank p. In this paper, we show that in the context of kernel ridge regression, for approximations based on a random subset of columns of the original kernel matrix, the rank p may be chosen to be linear in the degrees of freedom associated with the problem, a quantity which is classically used in the statistical analysis of such method s, and is often seen as the implicit number of parameters of non-parametric estimators. This result enables simple algorithms that have sub-quadratic running time complexity, but provably exhibit the same predictive performancethan existing algorithms, for any given problem instance, and not only for worst-case situations. Time series data mining has received much greater interest along with the increase in temporal data sets from different domains such as medicine, finance, multimedia, etc. Representations are important to reduce dimensionality and generate useful similarity measures. High-level representations such as Fourier transforms, wavelets, piecewise polynomial models, etc., were considered previously. Recently, autoregressive kernels were introduced to reflect the similarity of the time series. We introduce a novel approach to model the dependency structure in time series that generalizes the concept of autoregression to local autopatterns. Our approach generates a pattern-based representation along with a similarity measure called learned pattern similarity (LPS). A tree-based ensemble-learning strategy that is fast and insensitive to parameter settings is the basis for the approach. Then, a robust similarity measure based on the learned patterns is presented. This unsupervised approach to represent and measure the similarity between time series generally applies to a number of data mining tasks (e.g., clustering, anomaly detection, classification). Furthermore, an embedded learning of the representation avoids pre-defined features and an extraction step which is common in some feature-based approaches. The method generalizes in a straightforward manner to multivariate time series. The effectiveness of LPS is evaluated on time series classification problems from various domains. We compare LPS to eleven well-known similarity measures. Our experimental results show that LPS provides fast and competitive results on benchmark datasets from several domains. Furthermore, LPS provides a research direction and template approach that breaks from the linear dependency models to potentially foster other promising nonlinear approaches. Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) with Bilinear Pooling, initially in their full form and later using compact representations, have yielded impressive performance gains on a wide range of visual tasks, including fine-grained visual categorization, visual question answering, face recognition, and description of texture and style. The key to their success lies in the spatially invariant modeling of pairwise (2nd order) feature interactions. In this work, we propose a general pooling framework that captures higher order interactions of features in the form of kernels. We demonstrate how to approximate kernels such as Gaussian RBF up to a given order using compact explicit feature maps in a parameter-free manner. Combined with CNNs, the composition of the kernel can be learned from data in an end-to-end fashion via error back-propagation. The proposed kernel pooling scheme is evaluated in terms of both kernel approximation error and visual recognition accuracy. Experimental evaluations demonstrate state-of-the-art performance on commonly used fine-grained recognition datasets. In this paper, we propose an efficient algorithm, called vector field consensus, for establishing robust point correspondences between two sets of points. Our algorithm starts by creating a set of putative correspondences which can contain a very large number of false correspondences, or outliers, in addition to a limited number of true correspondences (inliers). Next, we solve for correspondence by interpolating a vector field between the two point sets, which involves estimating a consensus of inlier points whose matching follows a nonparametric geometrical constraint. We formulate this a maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation of a Bayesian model with hidden latent variables indicating whether matches in the putative set are outliers or inliers. We impose nonparametric geometrical constraints on the correspondence, as a prior distribution, using Tikhonov regularizers in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. MAP estimation is performed by the EM algorithm which by also estimating the variance of the prior model (initialized to a large value) is able to obtain good estimates very quickly (e.g., avoiding many of the local minima inherent in this formulation). We illustrate this method on data sets in 2D and 3D and demonstrate that it is robust to a very large number of outliers (even up to 90 ). We also show that in the special case where there is an underlying parametric geometrical model (e.g., the epipolar line constraint) that we obtain better results than standard alternatives like RANSAC if a large number of outliers are present. This suggests a two-stage strategy, where we use our nonparametric model to reduce the size of the putative set and then apply a parametric variant of our approach to estimate the geometric parameters. Our algorithm is computationally efficient and we provide code for others to use it. In addition, our approach is general and can be applied to other problems, such as learning with a badly corrupted training data set. We propose in this work a new family of kernels for variable-length time series. Our work builds upon the vector autoregressive (VAR) model for multivariate stochastic processes: given a multivariate time series x, we consider the likelihood function p_ (x) of different parameters in the VAR model as features to describe x. To compare two time series x and x', we form the product of their features p_ (x) p_ (x') which is integrated out w.r.t using a matrix normal-inverse Wishart prior. Among other properties, this kernel can be easily computed when the dimension d of the time series is much larger than the lengths of the considered time series x and x'. It can also be generalized to time series taking values in arbitrary state spaces, as long as the state space itself is endowed with a kernel . In that case, the kernel between x and x' is a a function of the Gram matrices produced by on observations and subsequences of observations enumerated in x and x'. We describe a computationally efficient implementation of this generalization that uses low-rank matrix factorization techniques. These kernels are compared to other known kernels using a set of benchmark classification tasks carried out with support vector machines. This paper develops a nonparametric density estimator with parametric overtones. Suppose f(x, θ) is some family of densities, indexed by a vector of parameters θ. We define a local kernel-smoothed likelihood function which, for each x, can be used to estimate the best local parametric approximant to the true density. This leads to a new density estimator of the form f(x, o(x)), thus inserting the best local parameter estimate for each new value of x. When the bandwidth used is large, this amounts to ordinary full likelihood parametric density estimation, while for moderate and small bandwidths the method is essentially nonparametric, using only local properties of data and the model. Alternative ways more general than via the local likelihood are also described. The methods can be seen as ways of nonparametrically smoothing the parameter within a parametric class. Properties of this new semiparametric estimator are investigated. Our preferred version has approximately the same variance as the ordinary kernel method but potentially a smaller bias. The new method is seen to perform better than the traditional kernel method in a broad nonparametric vicinity of the parametric model employed, while at the same time being capable of not losing much in precision to full likelihood methods when the model is correct. Other versions of the method are approximately equivalent to using particular higher order kernels in a semiparametric framework. The methodology we develop can be seen as the density estimation parallel to local likelihood and local weighted least squares theory in nonparametric regression. Summary Variable selection for recovering sparsity in nonadditive and nonparametric models with high-dimensional variables has been challenging. This problem becomes even more difficult due to complications in modeling unknown interaction terms among high-dimensional variables. There is currently no variable selection method to overcome these limitations. Hence, in this article we propose a variable selection approach that is developed by connecting a kernel machine with the nonparametric regression model. The advantages of our approach are that it can: (i) recover the sparsity; (ii) automatically model unknown and complicated interactions; (iii) connect with several existing approaches including linear nonnegative garrote and multiple kernel learning; and (iv) provide flexibility for both additive and nonadditive nonparametric models. Our approach can be viewed as a nonlinear version of a nonnegative garrote method. We model the smoothing function by a Least Squares Kernel Machine (LSKM) and construct the nonnegative garrote objective function as the function of the sparse scale parameters of kernel machine to recover sparsity of input variables whose relevances to the response are measured by the scale parameters. We also provide the asymptotic properties of our approach. We show that sparsistency is satisfied with consistent initial kernel function coefficients under certain conditions. An efficient coordinate descent backfitting algorithm is developed. A resampling procedure for our variable selection methodology is also proposed to improve the power. Recommender problems with large and dynamic item pools are ubiquitous in web applications like content optimization, online advertising and web search. Despite the availability of rich item meta-data, excess heterogeneity at the item level often requires inclusion of item-specific "factors" (or weights) in the model. However, since estimating item factors is computationally intensive, it poses a challenge for time-sensitive recommender problems where it is important to rapidly learn factors for new items (e.g., news articles, event updates, tweets) in an online fashion. In this paper, we propose a novel method called FOBFM (Fast Online Bilinear Factor Model) to learn item-specific factors quickly through online regression. The online regression for each item can be performed independently and hence the procedure is fast, scalable and easily parallelizable. However, the convergence of these independent regressions can be slow due to high dimensionality. The central idea of our approach is to use a large amount of historical data to initialize the online models based on offline features and learn linear projections that can effectively reduce the dimensionality. We estimate the rank of our linear projections by taking recourse to online model selection based on optimizing predictive likelihood. Through extensive experiments, we show that our method significantly and uniformly outperforms other competitive methods and obtains relative lifts that are in the range of 10-15 in terms of predictive log-likelihood, 200-300 for a rank correlation metric on a proprietary My Yahoo! dataset; it obtains 9 reduction in root mean squared error over the previously best method on a benchmark MovieLens dataset using a time-based train test data split. The rapidly evolving landscape of multicore architectures makes the construction of efficient libraries a daunting task. A family of methods known collectively as “auto-tuning” has emerged to address this challenge. Two major approaches to auto-tuning are empirical and model-based: empirical autotuning is a generic but slow approach that works by measuring runtimes of candidate implementations, model-based auto-tuning predicts those runtimes using simplified abstractions designed by hand. We show that machine learning methods for non-linear regression can be used to estimate timing models from data, capturing the best of both approaches. A statistically-derived model offers the speed of a model-based approach, with the generality and simplicity of empirical auto-tuning. We validate our approach using the filterbank correlation kernel described in Pinto and Cox [2012], where we find that 0.1 seconds of hill climbing on the regression model (“predictive auto-tuning”) can achieve almost the same speed-up as is brought by minutes of empirical auto-tuning. Our approach is not specific to filterbank correlation, nor even to GPU kernel auto-tuning, and can be applied to almost any templated-code optimization problem, spanning a wide variety of problem types, kernel types, and platforms. Tensor-based techniques for learning allow one to exploit the structure of carefully chosen representations of data. This is a desirable feature in particular when the number of training patterns is small which is often the case in areas such as biosignal processing and chemometrics. However, the class of tensor-based models is somewhat restricted and might suffer from limited discriminative power. On a different track, kernel methods lead to flexible nonlinear models that have been proven successful in many different contexts. Nonetheless, a naive application of kernel methods does not exploit structural properties possessed by the given tensorial representations. The goal of this work is to go beyond this limitation by introducing non-parametric tensor-based models. The proposed framework aims at improving the discriminative power of supervised tensor-based models while still exploiting the structural information embodied in the data. We begin by introducing a feature space formed by multilinear functionals. The latter can be considered as the infinite dimensional analogue of tensors. Successively we show how to implicitly map input patterns in such a feature space by means of kernels that exploit the algebraic structure of data tensors. The proposed tensorial kernel links to the MLSVD and features an interesting invariance property; the approach leads to convex optimization and fits into the same primal-dual framework underlying SVM-like algorithms. The problem of efficiently and accurately locating patterns of interest in massive time series data sets is an important and non-trivial problem in a wide variety of applications, including diagnosis and monitoring of complex systems, biomedical data analysis, and exploratory data analysis in scientific and business time series. In this paper a probabilistic approach is taken to this problem. Using piecewise linear segmentations as the underlying representation, local features (such as peaks, troughs, and plateaus) are defined using a prior distribution on expected deformations from a basic template. Global shape information is represented using another prior on the relative locations of the individual features. An appropriately defined probabilistic model integrates the local and global information and directly leads to an overall distance measure between sequence patterns based on prior knowledge. A search algorithm using this distance measure is shown to efficiently and accurately find matches for a variety of patterns on a number of data sets, including engineering sensor data from space Shuttle mission archives. The proposed approach provides a natural framework to support user-customizable "query by content" on time series data, taking prior domain information into account in a principled manner. This paper describes a general model that subsumes many parametric models for continuous data. The model comprises hidden layers of state-space or dynamic causal models, arranged so that the output of one provides input to another. The ensuing hierarchy furnishes a model for many types of data, of arbitrary complexity. Special cases range from the general linear model for static data to generalised convolution models, with system noise, for nonlinear time-series analysis. Crucially, all of these models can be inverted using exactly the same scheme, namely, dynamic expectation maximization. This means that a single model and optimisation scheme can be used to invert a wide range of models. We present the model and a brief review of its inversion to disclose the relationships among, apparently, diverse generative models of empirical data. We then show that this inversion can be formulated as a simple neural network and may provide a useful metaphor for inference and learning in the brain. textabstractForecasting financial time series using past observations has been a significant topic of interest. While temporal relationships in the data exist, they are difficult to analyze and predict accurately due to the non-linear trends and noise present in the series. We propose to learn these dependencies by a convolutional neural network. In particular the focus is on multivariate time series forecasting. Effectively, we use multiple financial time series as input in the neural network, thus conditioning the forecast of a time series x(t) on both its own history as well as that of a second (or third) time series y(t). Training a model on multiple stock series allows the network to exploit the correlation structure between these series so that the network can learn the market dynamics in shorter sequences of data. We show that long-term temporal dependencies in and between financial time series can be learned by means of a deep convolutional neural network based on the WaveNet model [2]. The network makes use of dilated convolutions applied to multiple time series so that the receptive field of the network is wide enough to learn both short and long-term dependencies. The architecture includes batch normalization and uses a 1 × k convolution with parametrized skip connections from the input time series as well as the time series we condition on, in this way learning long-term interdependencies in an efficient manner [1]. This improves the forecast, while at the same time limiting the requirement for a long historical price series and reducing the noise. Knowing the strong performance of CNNs on classification problems we show that they can be applied successfully to forecasting financial time series, without the need of large samples of data. We compare the performance of the WaveNet model to a state-of-the-art fully convolutional network (FCN), and an autoregressive model popular in econometrics and show that our model is much better able to learn important dependencies in between financial time series resulting in a more robust and accurate forecast. The advantages of discriminative learning algorithms and kernel machines are combined with generative modeling using a novel kernel between distributions. In the probability product kernel, data points in the input space are mapped to distributions over the sample space and a general inner product is then evaluated as the integral of the product of pairs of distributions. The kernel is straightforward to evaluate for all exponential family models such as multinomials and Gaussians and yields interesting nonlinear kernels. Furthermore, the kernel is computable in closed form for latent distributions such as mixture models, hidden Markov models and linear dynamical systems. For intractable models, such as switching linear dynamical systems, structured mean-field approximations can be brought to bear on the kernel evaluation. For general distributions, even if an analytic expression for the kernel is not feasible, we show a straightforward sampling method to evaluate it. Thus, the kernel permits discriminative learning methods, including support vector machines, to exploit the properties, metrics and invariances of the generative models we infer from each datum. Experiments are shown using multinomial models for text, hidden Markov models for biological data sets and linear dynamical systems for time series data. Abstract The purpose of this study is to find a combination of optimal numerical algorithms for time-stepping and mode-splitting suitable for a high-resolution, free-surface, terrain-following coordinate oceanic model. Due to mathematical feedback between the baroclinic momentum and tracer equations and, similarly, between the barotropic momentum and continuity equations, it is advantageous to treat both modes so that, after a time step for the momentum equation, the computed velocities participate immediately in the computation of tracers and continuity, and vice versa, rather than advancing all equations for one time step simultaneously. This leads to a new family of time-stepping algorithms that combine forward–backward feedback with the best known synchronous algorithms, allowing an increased time step due to the enhanced internal stability without sacrificing its accuracy. Based on these algorithms we design a split-explicit hydrodynamic kernel for a realistic oceanic model, which addresses multiple numerical issues associated with mode splitting. This kernel utilizes consistent temporal averaging of the barotropic mode via a specially designed filter function to guarantee both exact conservation and constancy preservation properties for tracers and yields more accurate (up to second-order), resolved barotropic processes, while preventing aliasing of unresolved barotropic signals into the slow baroclinic motions. It has a more accurate mode-splitting due to redefined barotropic pressure-gradient terms to account for the local variations in density field, while maintaining the computational efficiency of a split model. It is naturally compatible with a variety of centered and upstream-biased high-order advection algorithms, and helps to mitigate computational cost of expensive physical parameterization of mixing processes and submodels. As machine learning (ML) applications become increasingly prevalent, protecting the confidentiality of ML models becomes paramount for two reasons: (a) models may constitute a business advantage to its owner, and (b) an adversary may use a stolen model to find transferable adversarial examples that can be used to evade classification by the original model. One way to protect model confidentiality is to limit access to the model only via well-defined prediction APIs. This is common not only in machine-learning-as-a-service (MLaaS) settings where the model is remote, but also in scenarios like autonomous driving where the model is local but direct access to it is protected, for example, by hardware security mechanisms. Nevertheless, prediction APIs still leak information so that it is possible to mount model extraction attacks by an adversary who repeatedly queries the model via the prediction API. In this paper, we describe a new model extraction attack by combining a novel approach for generating synthetic queries together with recent advances in training deep neural networks. This attack outperforms state-of-the-art model extraction techniques in terms of transferability of targeted adversarial examples generated using the extracted model (+15-30 percentage points, pp), and in prediction accuracy (+15-20 pp) on two datasets. We then propose the first generic approach to effectively detect model extraction attacks: PRADA. It analyzes how the distribution of consecutive queries to the model evolves over time and raises an alarm when there are abrupt deviations. We show that PRADA can detect all known model extraction attacks with a 100 success rate and no false positives. PRADA is particularly suited for detecting extraction attacks against local models. Kernel classifiers and regressors designed for structured data, such as sequences, trees and graphs, have significantly advanced a number of interdisciplinary areas such as computational biology and drug design. Typically, kernels are designed beforehand for a data type which either exploit statistics of the structures or make use of probabilistic generative models, and then a discriminative classifier is learned based on the kernels via convex optimization. However, such an elegant two-stage approach also limited kernel methods from scaling up to millions of data points, and exploiting discriminative information to learn feature representations. We propose, structure2vec, an effective and scalable approach for structured data representation based on the idea of embedding latent variable models into feature spaces, and learning such feature spaces using discriminative information. Interestingly, structure2vec extracts features by performing a sequence of function mappings in a way similar to graphical model inference procedures, such as mean field and belief propagation. In applications involving millions of data points, we showed that structure2vec runs 2 times faster, produces models which are @math times smaller, while at the same time achieving the state-of-the-art predictive performance. High-dimensional problem domains pose significant challenges for anomaly detection. The presence of irrelevant features can conceal the presence of anomalies. This problem, known as the 'curse of dimensionality', is an obstacle for many anomaly detection techniques. Building a robust anomaly detection model for use in high-dimensional spaces requires the combination of an unsupervised feature extractor and an anomaly detector. While one-class support vector machines are effective at producing decision surfaces from well-behaved feature vectors, they can be inefficient at modelling the variation in large, high-dimensional datasets. Architectures such as deep belief networks (DBNs) are a promising technique for learning robust features. We present a hybrid model where an unsupervised DBN is trained to extract generic underlying features, and a one-class SVM is trained from the features learned by the DBN. Since a linear kernel can be substituted for nonlinear ones in our hybrid model without loss of accuracy, our model is scalable and computationally efficient. The experimental results show that our proposed model yields comparable anomaly detection performance with a deep autoencoder, while reducing its training and testing time by a factor of 3 and 1000, respectively. HighlightsWe use a combination of a one-class SVM and deep learning.In our model linear kernels can be used rather than nonlinear ones.Our model delivers a comparable accuracy with a deep autoencoder.Our model executes 3times faster in training and 1000 faster than a deep autoencoder.