To minimize property loss and death count in terror attacks and other emergent scenarios, attention given to timely and effective evacuation cannot be enough. Due to limited evacuation resource, i.e., number of available exits, there exists interdependence among pedestrians such as cooperation, competition and herd effect. Thus human factors - more specifically, pedestrians' behavior in emergency evacuation - play a significant role in evacuation research. Effective evacuation can only be reached when route planning are considered in conjunction with psychological dynamics, which is often ignored. As another drawback, previous research assumes the environment including available exits as stationary. However, we note that during emergency, some exits which are not often utilized in normal times are opened, which potentially helps if pedestrians are aware of them. In this paper, we analyze the effect of pedestrians' behavior, i.e., herd effect and knowledge of changing environment with Cellular Automata (CA) simulation. Results of the simulation show the harmful effect of herd effect as well as highlight the importance of timely informing pedestrians of environmental change. Accordingly, we propose policy and procedural recommendations for emergency management of large, crowded structures. Our future work includes considering more human factors and applying our model to log data provided by videos in public venues, which can further show effectiveness of our model in real scenarios.
@cite_12 the likely behaviours of train passengers in an emergency evacuation are explored in the form of questionnaires. The results showed that respondents are more likely to be reactive (e.g., wait for instruction from station staff) rather than proactive (e.g., move to exit); more likely to be cooperative (e.g., helping other people) than competitive (e.g., push other passengers); more likely to show herding or symmetry behaviour (e.g., following other passengers) than symmetric breaking behaviour (e.g., choose least crowded exit); and less likely to use the lifts, escalators and tunnels to escape in an emergency situation. In terms of demographic differences in behaviours, it's demonstrated that there are significant differences in the evacuation behaviours between males and females. Males are less likely to use emergency call buttons, call the emergency phone number or wait at the assembly area. Also, they are more likely to display competitive behaviour, choose the least crowded exit, and use the lifts, escalators and tunnels to escape in the event of an emergency evacuation. In contrast, differences in behaviours are not as obvious among different age groups.
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Abstract This paper explores the likely behaviours of train passengers in an emergency evacuation and examines four crucial theoretical issues on the passengers’ evacuation, including reactive vs. proactive behaviours, cooperative vs. competitive behaviours, symmetry breaking, and route exit choice. A survey of 1134 train passengers shows that respondents are not homogeneous in their likely behaviours. Overall, they are more likely to be reactive (e.g., wait for instruction from station staff) than proactive (e.g., move to exit) in an emergency situation. We also find that people are more likely to be co-operative (e.g., helping other people) than competitive (e.g., push other passengers). Although passengers are likely to show herding or symmetry breaking behaviour (e.g., following other passengers) than symmetric behaviour (e.g., choose least crowded exit), the degree of symmetry breaking behaviour is not as high as assumed in previous mathematical models. They are also unlikely to use escalators, lifts and train tunnels in their exit route choice during an emergency escape. In terms of demographic differences in behaviours, results from the ordered logit models demonstrate that there are significant differences in the evacuation behaviours between males and females but not among the different age groups. Besides providing valuable information for developing mathematical models intended to simulate passengers’ evacuation in a train station, our findings can assist managers of emergency response in developing appropriate strategies and training, and in designing solutions and education campaigns for effective evacuation. Emergency evacuation from airports is an important consideration given the continuing occurrence of both natural and human caused disasters. Unfortunately, the traditional evacuation-drill approach to prepare for emergency situations presents several practical challenges at the scale and magnitude required for airports. In this paper, we present an agent-based model (ABM) called exitus which is capable of determining the extent to which collective behavior and overall evacuation time of passenger groups is affected by changes in the built environment for large, complex structures. The model is unique because it explicitly considers the physical and psychological characteristics of individuals with disabilities. In our first experiment, several bomb simulation scenarios were conducted at an international airport using exitus. Several important findings were revealed including: 1) the importance of stairway and exit configurations; 2) the inherent weaknesses of the pier airport design in affecting timely evacuations; 3) who the most vulnerable groups of people are; 4) the particular risk engendered from crowded or complex building interiors for individuals with disabilities; and 5) the potential problems caused by locating explosive detection system machines near passenger processing areas. The results of a second exploratory experiment also revealed the importance of realistically modeling psychological attributes of individuals with disabilities and their potential impact on collective evacuation performance. Overall the findings demonstrated the model’s ability to generate a common operational picture capable of guiding preparedness efforts for both public and private organizations encompassing a wide variety of professional endeavor. Metro construction in China enjoyed and will continue to enjoy unprecedented development in the tenth 5 Year Plan period and the upcoming eleventh 5 Year Plan period. In China, cities are densely populated, and as a modernized urban rail transit means, metros have been undertaking increasingly important tasks of large passenger flow transportation, under which circumstance the injury and casualty will be enormous if an accident occurs. China's work safe laws and regulations have stipulated that safety evaluation must be carried out during planning, design, construction and operation of metros. As a part of the metro safety evaluation, occupant safe evacuation is a critical aspect to be assessed. This paper will first introduce the occupants evacuation design in the construction of metros in China based on Code for design of metro (CFDOM) (GB 50157-2003), including evacuation passage design, evacuation time and evacuation safe area as well as fire-engineering-based occupants evacuation design philosophy and calculation method. Finally, a computer simulation of the process of evacuation of occupants from deep buried metro station (DBMS) by using occupants evacuation dynamic model will be conducted on the example of DBMS of Guangzhou Metro Line 6, so as to study whether the occupants can be safely evacuated from DBMS in case of fire. Starting with a short review of the available literature in the field of pedestrian and evacuation research, an overview is given over the observed collective phenomena in pedestrian crowds. This includes lane formation in corridors and oscillations at bottlenecks in normal situations, while different kinds of blocked states are produced in panic situations. By means of molecular-dynamic-like microsimulations based on a generalized force model of interactive pedestrian dynamics, the spatio-temporal patterns in pedestrian crowds are successfully reproduced and interpreted as self-organized phenomena. In contrast to previous socio-psychological approaches, this allows a physical understanding of the observations. Despite the significantly different phenomena occuring in normal and panic situations, the main effects can be described by a unified model containing only well interpretable and plausible terms. The transition between the “rational” normal behavior and the apparently “irrational” panic behavior is controlled by a single parameter, the “nervousness”, which influences fluctuation strengths, desired speeds, and the tendency of herding. Thereby, it causes paradoxial effects like “freezing by heating”, “faster is slower”, and the ignorance of available exits. Nevertheless, there are measures to improve pedestrian flows, both in normal and panic situations. For example, the suitable placement of columns can help, although they reduce the accessible space. Pedestrian evacuation is one open question in a myriad of scientific disciplines and has attracted considerable attention during the past decades. Aim to issue, various research approaches, such as mathematical modeling and simulation, experimental studied and socio-psychology surveys, have been extensively employed. Different from previous frameworks, here a behavior-based cellular automaton model is proposed, which involves the environmental characteristics and neighbors' behaviors. Given the certain range of degree of emergency, it is shown that enhancing the degree of emergency will shorten evacuation time yet decrease cooperation enthusiasm. The larger the degree of familiarity is, the shorter the evacuation time will be. In variance, larger the dependence of pedestrians will prolong the evacuation time. Besides, the novel model also produces some interesting self-organization phenomena, such as the collective behavior at the beginning of the evacuation and arch-like blocking at the end of the evacuation. When our model is finally applied to the evacuation scenario where a room has two symmetrically located exits, the symmetry breaking effect takes place. Our model may shed new light to the study of pedestrian dynamics in realistic world. In this paper we present a model based on the parallel computational tool of cellular automata CA capable of simulating the process of disembarking in a small airplane seat layout, corresponding to Airbus A320 Boeing 737 layout, in search of ways to make it faster and safer under normal evacuation conditions, as well as emergency scenarios. The proposed model is highly customizable, with the number of exits, the walking speed of passengers, depending on their sex, age and height, and the effects of retrieving and carrying luggage. Additionally, the presence of obstacles in the aisles as well as the emergence of panic being parameters whose values can be varied in order to enlighten the disembarking and emergency evacuation processes are considered in detail. The simulation results were compared to existing aircraft disembarking and evacuation times and indicate the efficacy of the proposed model in investigating and revealing passenger attributes during these processes in all the examined cases. Moreover, we parallelized our code in order to run on a graphics processing unit GPU using the CUDA programming language, speeding up the simulation process. Finally, in order to present a fully dynamical anticipative real-time system helpful for decision-making we implemented the proposed CA model in a field programmable gate array FPGA device, and recreated the results given by the software simulations in a fraction of the time. We then compared and exported the performance results among a sequential software implementation, the implementation running on a GPU, and a hardware implementation, proving the consequent acceleration that results from the parallel CA implementation in specific hardware. In subway systems, the energy put into accelerating trains can be reconverted into electric energy by using the motors as generators during the braking phase. In general, except for a small part that is used for onboard purposes, most of the recovery energy is transmitted backward along the conversion chain and fed back into the overhead contact line. To improve the utilization of recovery energy, this paper proposes a cooperative scheduling approach to optimize the timetable so that the recovery energy that is generated by the braking train can directly be used by the accelerating train. The recovery that is generated by the braking train is less than the required energy for the accelerating train; therefore, only the synchronization between successive trains is considered. First, we propose the cooperative scheduling rules and define the overlapping time between the accelerating and braking trains for a peak-hours scenario and an off-peak-hours scenario, respectively. Second, we formulate an integer programming model to maximize the overlapping time with the headway time and dwell time control. Furthermore, we design a genetic algorithm with binary encoding to solve the optimal timetable. Last, we present six numerical examples based on the operation data from the Beijing Yizhuang subway line in China. The results illustrate that the proposed model can significantly improve the overlapping time by 22.06 at peak hours and 15.19 at off-peak hours. The Great East Japan Earthquake and the Fukushima nuclear accident cause large human population movements and evacuations. Understanding and predicting these movements is critical for planning effective humanitarian relief, disaster management, and long-term societ al reconstruction. In this paper, we construct a large human mobility database that stores and manages GPS records from mobile devices used by approximately 1.6 million people throughout Japan from 1 August 2010 to 31 July 2011. By mining this enormous set of Auto-GPS mobile sensor data, the short-term and long-term evacuation behaviors for individuals throughout Japan during this disaster are able to be automatically discovered. To better understand and simulate human mobility during the disasters, we develop a probabilistic model that is able to be effectively trained by the discovered evacuations via machine learning technique. Based on our training model, population mobility in various cities impacted by the disasters throughout the country is able to be automatically simulated or predicted. On the basis of the whole database, developed model, and experimental results, it is easy for us to find some new features or population mobility patterns after the recent severe earthquake, tsunami and release of radioactivity in Japan, which are likely to play a vital role in future disaster relief and management worldwide. We consider the problem of navigating a mobile robot through dense human crowds. We begin by exploring a fundamental impediment to classical motion planning algorithms called the âfreezing robot problemâ: once the environment surpasses a certain level of dynamic complexity, the planner decides that all forward paths are unsafe, and the robot freezes in place or performs unnecessary maneuvers to avoid collisions. We argue that this problem can be avoided if the robot anticipates human cooperation, and accordingly we develop interacting Gaussian processes, a prediction density that captures cooperative collision avoidance, and a âmultiple goalâ extension that models the goal-driven nature of human decision making. We validate this model with an empirical study of robot navigation in dense human crowds 488 runs, specifically testing how cooperation models effect navigation performance. The multiple goal interacting Gaussian processes algorithm performs comparably with human teleoperators in crowd densities nearing 0.8 humans m2, while a state-of-the-art non-cooperative planner exhibits unsafe behavior more than three times as often as the multiple goal extension, and twice as often as the basic interacting Gaussian process approach. Furthermore, a reactive planner based on the widely used dynamic window approach proves insufficient for crowd densities above 0.55 people m2. We also show that our non-cooperative planner or our reactive planner capture the salient characteristics of nearly any dynamic navigation algorithm. Based on these experimental results and theoretical observations, we conclude that a cooperation model is critical for safe and efficient robot navigation in dense human crowds. We report a user study which compared four virtual environment travel techniques using a divided attention task. Participants used either real walking, gaze-directed, pointing-directed, or torso-directed travel to follow a target through an environment while simultaneously responding to auditory stimuli. In addition to travel technique, we investigated gender as a between-subjects variable and task difficulty (simple or complex) and task type (single or divided) as within-subjects variables. Real walking allowed superior performance over the pointing-directed technique on measures of navigation task performance and recognition of stimuli presented during navigation. This indicates that participants using real walking may have had more spare cognitive capacity to process and encode stimuli than those using pointing-directed travel. We also found a gender-difficulty interaction where males performed worse and responded slower to the attention task when the spatial task was more difficult, but no differences were observed for females between difficulty levels. While these results may be pertinent for the design of virtual environments, the nature and goal of the virtual environment tasks must be carefully considered to determine whether similar effects on performance can be expected under different conditions. The ubiquitous deployment of mobile and sensor technologies has led to both the capacity to observe human behavior in physical (offline) settings as well as to record it. This provides researchers with a new lens to study and better understand the individual decision processes that were previously unobserved. In this paper, we study decision making behavior of 11,196 taxi drivers in a large Asian city using a rich data set consisting of 10.6 million fine-grained GPS trip records. These records include detailed taxi GPS trajectories, taxi occupancy data (i.e., whether a taxi was occupied with a passenger or was vacant) and taxi drivers’ daily incomes. This capacity to use data where occupancy of the taxi is known is a distinctive feature of our data set and sets this work apart from prior work which has attempted to study driver behavior. The specific decision we focus on pertains to actions drivers take to find new passengers after they have dropped off their current passengers. In particular, we study the role of information derivable from the GPS trace data (e.g., where passengers are dropped off, where passengers are picked up, longitudinal taxicab travel history with fine-grained time stamps) observable by or made available to drivers in enabling them to learn the distribution of demand for their services over space and time. We conduct our study using a heterogeneous Bayesian learning model. We find strong heterogeneity in individual learning behavior and driving decisions, which is significantly associated with individual economic outcomes. Drivers with higher incomes benefit significantly from their ability to learn from not only demand information directly observable in the local market, but also aggregate information on demand flows across markets. Interestingly, our policy simulations indicate information that is noisy at the individual level becomes valuable after being aggregated across various spatial and temporal dimensions. Moreover, the value of information does not increase monotonically with the scale and frequency of information sharing. Finally, our study has important welfare implications in that efficient information sharing leads to an income increase among all drivers, instead of a redistribution of income between different types of drivers. Our work allows us not only to explain driver decision making behavior using these detailed behavioral traces, but also to prescribe information sharing strategy for the firm in order to improve the overall market efficiency. The study of crowd dynamics is interesting because of the various self-organization phenomena resulting from the interactions of many pedestrians, which may improve or obstruct their flow. Besides formation of lanes of uniform walking direction and oscillations at bottlenecks at moderate densities, it was recently discovered that stop-and-go waves [D. , Phys. Rev. Lett. 97 (2006) 168001] and a phenomenon called "crowd turbulence" can occur at high pedestrian densities [D. , Phys. Rev. E 75 (2007) 046109]. Although the behavior of pedestrian crowds under extreme conditions is decisive for the safety of crowds during the access to or egress from mass events as well as for situations of emergency evacuation, there is still a lack of empirical studies of extreme crowding. Therefore, this paper discusses how one may study high-density conditions based on suitable video data. This is illustrated at the example of pilgrim flows entering the previous Jamarat Bridge in Mina, 5 kilometers from the Holy Mosque in Makkah, Saudi-Arabia. Our results reveal previously unexpected pattern formation phenomena and show that the average individual speed does not go to zero even at local densities of 10 persons per square meter. Since the maximum density and flow are different from measurements in other countries, this has implications for the capacity assessment and dimensioning of facilities for mass events. When conditions become congested, the flow drops significantly, which can cause stop-and-go waves and a further increase of the density until critical crowd conditions are reached. Then, "crowd turbulence" sets in, which may trigger crowd disasters. For this reason, it is important to operate pedestrian facilities sufficiently below their maximum capacity and to take measures to improve crowd safety, some of which are discussed in the end. The problem of transporting patients or elderly people has been widely studied in literature and is usually modeled as a dial-a-ride problem (DARP). In this paper we analyze the corresponding problem arising in the daily operation of the Austrian Red Cross. This nongovernmental organization is the largest organization performing patient transportation in Austria. The aim is to design vehicle routes to serve partially dynamic transportation requests using a fixed vehicle fleet. Each request requires transportation from a patient's home location to a hospital (outbound request) or back home from the hospital (inbound request). Some of these requests are known in advance. Some requests are dynamic in the sense that they appear during the day without any prior information. Finally, some inbound requests are stochastic. More precisely, with a certain probability each outbound request causes a corresponding inbound request on the same day. Some stochastic information about these return transports is available from historical data. The purpose of this study is to investigate, whether using this information in designing the routes has a significant positive effect on the solution quality. The problem is modeled as a dynamic stochastic dial-a-ride problem with expected return transports. We propose four different modifications of metaheuristic solution approaches for this problem. In detail, we test dynamic versions of variable neighborhood search (VNS) and stochastic VNS (S-VNS) as well as modified versions of the multiple plan approach (MPA) and the multiple scenario approach (MSA). Tests are performed using 12 sets of test instances based on a real road network. Various demand scenarios are generated based on the available real data. Results show that using the stochastic information on return transports leads to average improvements of around 15 . Moreover, improvements of up to 41 can be achieved for some test instances. Emergency rescues require that first responders provide support to evacuate injured and other civilians who are obstructed by the hazards. In this case, the emergency personnel can take actions strategically in order to rescue people maximally, efficiently and quickly. The paper studies the effectiveness of a random neural network (RNN)-based task assignment algorithm involving optimally matching emergency personnel and injured civilians, so that the emergency personnel can aid trapped people to move towards evacuation exits in real-time. The evaluations are run on a decision support evacuation system using the Distributed Building Evacuation Simulator (DBES) multi-agent platform in various emergency scenarios. The simulation results indicate that the RNN-based task assignment algorithm provides a near-optimal solution to resource allocation problems, which avoids resource wastage and improves the efficiency of the emergency rescue process. We report that human walk patterns contain statistically similar features observed in Levy walks. These features include heavy-tail flight and pause-time distributions and the super-diffusive nature of mobility. Human walks are not random walks, but it is surprising that the patterns of human walks and Levy walks contain some statistical similarity. Our study is based on 226 daily GPS traces collected from 101 volunteers in five different outdoor sites. The heavy-tail flight distribution of human mobility induces the super-diffusivity of travel, but up to 30 min to 1 h due to the boundary effect of people's daily movement, which is caused by the tendency of people to move within a predefined (also confined) area of daily activities. These tendencies are not captured in common mobility models such as random way point (RWP). To evaluate the impact of these tendencies on the performance of mobile networks, we construct a simple truncated Levy walk mobility (TLW) model that emulates the statistical features observed in our analysis and under which we measure the performance of routing protocols in delay-tolerant networks (DTNs) and mobile ad hoc networks (MANETs). The results indicate the following. Higher diffusivity induces shorter intercontact times in DTN and shorter path durations with higher success probability in MANET. The diffusivity of TLW is in between those of RWP and Brownian motion (BM). Therefore, the routing performance under RWP as commonly used in mobile network studies and tends to be overestimated for DTNs and underestimated for MANETs compared to the performance under TLW. The objective of this study is the development of a computer simulation model for pedestrian movement in architectural and urban space. The characteristic of the model is the ability to visualize the movement of each pedestrian in a plan as an animation. So architects and designers can easily find and understand the problems in their design projects. In this model, the movement of each pedestrian is simulated by the motion of a magnetized object in a magnetic field. Positive magnetic pole is given to each pedestrian and obstacles like walls and columns. Negative magnetic pole is located at the goal of pedestrians. Each pedestrian moves to his goal by the attractive force caused by the negative magnetic pole at his goal, avoiding collisions with other pedestrians and obstacles by repulsive forces caused by the positive magnetic poles. The effectiveness of the simulation model is shown by the following two kinds of simulation examples. (1) Evacuation from an office building In this model pedestrians walk along the route from each starting point to the exit in case of evacuation. The example shows the places where stagnations and heavy congestions occur, and designers can see if the evacuation routes are appropriate. (2) Movement of pedestrians in queue spaces Three types of queuing behavior is classified in this model: movement in front of counters, movement passing through ratches, and movement of getting on and off in elevator halls. Simulation examples in a railway station and in a main floor of a resort hotel are shown where several kinds of queue spaces are included and complicated movements of hundreds of pedestrians occur. Travelling by public transport is usually regarded as boring and uninteresting. Refraining from talking to the stranger next to you may be due to limitations that are self-imposed and further corroborated by social expectations and cultural norms that govern behaviour in public space. Our design research into passenger interactions on board of urban commuter trains has informed the development of the TrainRoulette prototype -- a mobile app for situated, real-time chats between train passengers. We study the impact of our design intervention on shaping perceptions of the train journey experience. Moreover, we are interested in the implications of such ICT-mediated interactions within train journeys for stimulating social offline interactions and new forms of passenger engagement. Given a large city represented by nodes and arcs, with a subset of these nodes having people required to be evacuated in a disaster situation, and a subset of destination nodes where the people may be taken for safety, the evacuation route planner finds routes in this network to evacuate the people in minimum possible time. Evacuation route planning in pre-known disasters such as hurricanes is of utmost importance for civic authorities. Computing such evacuation routes in a large graph with road infrastructure constraints such as road capacities and travelling times can be challenging. The Capacity Constrained Route Planner (CCRP) is a well studied heuristic algorithm proposed by Lu, George and Shekhar for solving this problem. It uses shortest path computations as a basis for finding and scheduling possible evacuation paths in the graph. However, the algorithm fails to scale to very large graphs. Other algorithms based on CCRP like CCRP++ and Incremental Data Structure based CCRP have been proposed to scale them to larger graphs. In this paper, we analyze these algorithms from performance perspective and suggest a faster algorithm by extending the CCRP algorithm that avoids recomputing partial paths. We have carried out experiments on various graph structures which show a vast improvement in runtime without impacting the optimality of CCRP results. For instance, for the city of Oldenburg with 382285 people, 6105 nodes and 7034 edges, our algorithm produced an evacuation plan in 2.6 seconds as compared to 123.8 seconds by CCRP and 9.3 seconds by CCRP++. We consider the application of route planning in large public-transportation networks (buses, trains, subways, etc). Many connections in such networks are operated at periodic time intervals. When a set of connections has sufficient periodicity, it becomes more efficient to store the time range and frequency (e.g., every 15 minutes from 8:00am-6:00pm) instead of storing each of the time events separately. Identifying an optimal frequency-compression is NP-hard, so we present a time- and space-efficient heuristic. We show how we can use this compression to not only save space but also query time. We particularly consider profile queries, which ask for all optimal routes with departure times in a given interval (e.g., a whole day). In particular, we design a new version of Dijkstra's algorithm that works with frequency-based labels and is suitable for profile queries. We evaluate the savings of our approach on two metropolitan and three country-wide public-transportation networks. On our largest network, we simultaneously achieve a better space consumption than all previous methods as well as profile query times that are about 5 times faster than the best previous method. We also improve Transfer Patterns, a state-of-the-art technique for fully realistic route planning in large public-transportation networks. In particular, we accelerate the expensive preprocessing by a factor of 60 compared to the original publication. We investigate the communication sequences of millions of people through two different channels and analyse the fine grained temporal structure of correlated event trains induced by single individuals. By focusing on correlations between the heterogeneous dynamics and the topology of egocentric networks we find that the bursty trains usually evolve for pairs of individuals rather than for the ego and his her several neighbours, thus burstiness is a property of the links rather than of the nodes. We compare the directional balance of calls and short messages within bursty trains to the average on the actual link and show that for the trains of voice calls the imbalance is significantly enhanced, while for short messages the balance within the trains increases. These effects can be partly traced back to the technological constraints (for short messages) and partly to the human behavioural features (voice calls). We define a model that is able to reproduce the empirical results and may help us to understand better the mechanisms driving technology mediated human communication dynamics.