In this work, we analyze the problem of adoption of mobile money in Pakistan by using the call detail records of a major telecom company as our input. Our results highlight the fact that different sections of the society have different patterns of adoption of digital financial services but user mobility related features are the most important one when it comes to adopting and using mobile money services.
The work on the adoption of digital financial services has been dominated by macroeconomic work related to regulatory issues around interoperability and the logistics of mobile money agents @cite_7 @cite_5 and a very few research papers have explored the adoption of mobile money from a quantitative perspective. However, mining of insights from mobile communication meta-data has been a popular area of research and some examples of work in this area include predicting the socioeconomic status @cite_1 , gender @cite_4 of mobile phone subscribers, customer churn behavior @cite_0 and analysis of gender disparities using social networks extracted from mobile communication logs @cite_8 .
@cite_4 @cite_7 @cite_8 @cite_1 @cite_0 @cite_5
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Billions of people around the world live without access to banks or other formal financial institutions. In the past several years, many mobile operators have launched "Mobile Money" platforms that deliver basic financial services over the mobile phone network. While many believe that these services can improve the lives of the poor, in many countries adoption of Mobile Money still remains anemic. In this paper, we develop a predictive model of Mobile Money adoption that uses billions of mobile phone communications records to understand the behavioral determinants of adoption. We describe a novel approach to feature engineering that uses a Deterministic Finite Automaton to construct thousands of behavioral metrics of phone use from a concise set of recursive rules. These features provide the foundation for a predictive model that is tested on mobile phone operators logs from Ghana, Pakistan, and Zambia, three very different developing-country contexts. The results highlight the key correlates of Mobile Money use in each country, as well as the potential for such methods to predict and drive adoption. More generally, our analysis provides insight into the extent to which homogenized supervised learning methods can generalize across geographic contexts. We find that without careful tuning, a model that performs very well in one country frequently does not generalize to another. 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Chakrabarti.- A discussion on Econophysics by Hideaki Aoyama. Demographics are widely used in marketing to characterize different types of customers. However, in practice, demographic information such as age, gender, and location is usually unavailable due to privacy and other reasons. In this paper, we aim to harness the power of big data to automatically infer users' demographics based on their daily mobile communication patterns. Our study is based on a real-world large mobile network of more than 7,000,000 users and over 1,000,000,000 communication records (CALL and SMS). We discover several interesting social strategies that mobile users frequently use to maintain their social connections. First, young people are very active in broadening their social circles, while seniors tend to keep close but more stable connections. Second, female users put more attention on cross-generation interactions than male users, though interactions between male and female users are frequent. Third, a persistent same-gender triadic pattern over one's lifetime is discovered for the first time, while more complex opposite-gender triadic patterns are only exhibited among young people. We further study to what extent users' demographics can be inferred from their mobile communications. As a special case, we formalize a problem of double dependent-variable prediction-inferring user gender and age simultaneously. We propose the WhoAmI method, a Double Dependent-Variable Factor Graph Model, to address this problem by considering not only the effects of features on gender age, but also the interrelation between gender and age. Our experiments show that the proposed WhoAmI method significantly improves the prediction accuracy by up to 10 compared with several alternative methods. Several attempts have already been made to use telecommunications networks for urban research, but the datasets employed have typically been neither dynamic nor fine grained. Against this research backdrop the mobile phone network offers a compelling compromise between these extremes: it is both highly mobile and yet still localisable in space. Moreover, the mobile phone’s enormous and enthusiastic adoption across most socioeconomic strata makes it a uniquely useful tool for conducting large-scale, representative behavioural research. In this paper we attempt to connect telecoms usage data from Telecom Italia Mobile (TIM) to a geography of human activity derived from data on commercial premises advertised through Pagine Gialle, the Italian ‘Yellow Pages’. We then employ eigendecomposition—a process similar to factoring but suitable for this complex dataset—to identify and extract recurring patterns of mobile phone usage. The resulting eigenplaces support the computational and comparative analysis of space through the lens of telecommuniations usage and enhance our understanding of the city as a ‘space of flows’. About 2.6 billion people in the world do not have access to formal financial services, and yet one billion of them have a mobile phone. Branchless banking systems take advantage of increasingly ubiquitous real-time mobile communications networks to bring banking services into everyday retail stores, thereby alleviating the lack of banking infrastructure in the communities where poor people live and work. Most of these deployments are quite recent, hence there is a shortage of hard empirical evidence relating to them. However, one mobile banking scheme, MPESA in Kenya, has been phenomenally successful and has been a catalyst for much of the research done to date. In this article, we review the emerging literature on the definitions and model taxonomies employed in mobile banking; the status and drivers of global adoption of these schemes; the take-up and usage patterns of customers and their socioeconomic impact; and, finally, regulatory issues. Our objective is to help policymakers and practitioners in their continued efforts to create an enabling environment for branchless banking. In the context of a myriad of mobile apps which collect personally identifiable information (PII) and a prospective market place of personal data, we investigate a user-centric monetary valuation of mobile PII. During a 6-week long user study in a living lab deployment with 60 participants, we collected their daily valuations of 4 categories of mobile PII (communication, e.g. phonecalls made received, applications, e.g. time spent on different apps, location and media, e.g. photos taken) at three levels of complexity (individual data points, aggregated statistics and processed, i.e. meaningful interpretations of the data). In order to obtain honest valuations, we employ a reverse second price auction mechanism. Our findings show that the most sensitive and valued category of personal information is location. We report statistically significant associations between actual mobile usage, personal dispositions, and bidding behavior. Finally, we outline key implications for the design of mobile services and future markets of personal data. We live in a computerized and networked society where many of our actions leave a digital trace and affect other people’s actions. This has lead to the emergence of a new data-driven research field: mathematical methods of computer science, statistical physics and sociometry provide insights on a wide range of disciplines ranging from social science to human mobility. A recent important discovery is that search engine traffic (i.e., the number of requests submitted by users to search engines on the www) can be used to track and, in some cases, to anticipate the dynamics of social phenomena. Successful examples include unemployment levels, car and home sales, and epidemics spreading. Few recent works applied this approach to stock prices and market sentiment. However, it remains unclear if trends in financial markets can be anticipated by the collective wisdom of on-line users on the web. Here we show that daily trading volumes of stocks traded in NASDAQ-100 are correlated with daily volumes of queries related to the same stocks. In particular, query volumes anticipate in many cases peaks of trading by one day or more. Our analysis is carried out on a unique dataset of queries, submitted to an important web search engine, which enable us to investigate also the user behavior. We show that the query volume dynamics emerges from the collective but seemingly uncoordinated activity of many users. These findings contribute to the debate on the identification of early warnings of financial systemic risk, based on the activity of users of the www. The emergence and wide-spread use of online social networks has led to a dramatic increase on the availability of social activity data. Importantly, this data can be exploited to investigate, at a microscopic level, some of the problems that have captured the attention of economists, marketers and sociologists for decades, such as, e.g., product adoption, usage and competition. In this paper, we propose a continuous-time probabilistic model, based on temporal point processes, for the adoption and frequency of use of competing products, where the frequency of use of one product can be modulated by those of others. This model allows us to efficiently simulate the adoption and recurrent usages of competing products, and generate traces in which we can easily recognize the effect of social influence, recency and competition. We then develop an inference method to efficiently fit the model parameters by solving a convex program. The problem decouples into a collection of smaller subproblems, thus scaling easily to networks with hundred of thousands of nodes. We validate our model over synthetic and real diffusion data gathered from Twitter, and show that the proposed model does not only provides a good fit to the data and more accurate predictions than alternatives but also provides interpretable model parameters, which allow us to gain insights into some of the factors driving product adoption and frequency of use. The emerging wireless and mobile networks have extended electronic commerce to another research and application subject: mobile commerce. This creates new opportunities for customers to conduct business from any location at any time. One of the important uses of mobile applications is transforming the mobile phone into a mobile wallet with digital cash that supports both anonymity (as real cash) and security [3]. Hence, in this article we propose a scheme to support m-commerce transactions and provide fully anonymity for mobile users. Our scheme is based on 160 bit ECC, Whose security intensity is equal to 1024 bit RSA. The paper describes the model, infrastructure and details of the protocol. It also discusses the applying ECC on protocol, some implementation issues and restrictions in mobile payment systems. We combine data from a field survey with transaction log data from a mobile phone operator to provide new insight into daily patterns of mobile phone use in Rwanda. The analysis is divided into three parts. First, we present a statistical comparison of the general Rwandan population to the population of mobile phone owners in Rwanda. We find that phone owners are considerably wealthier, better educated, and more predominantly male than the general population. Second, we analyze patterns of phone use and access, based on self-reported survey data. We note statistically significant differences by gender; for instance, women are more likely to use shared phones than men. Third, we perform a quantitative analysis of calling patterns and social network structure using mobile operator billing logs. By these measures, the differences between men and women are more modest, but we observe vast differences in utilization between the relatively rich and the relatively poor. Taken together, the evidence in this paper suggests that phones are disproportionately owned and used by the privileged strata of Rwandan society. The ubiquitous deployment of mobile and sensor technologies has led to both the capacity to observe human behavior in physical (offline) settings as well as to record it. This provides researchers with a new lens to study and better understand the individual decision processes that were previously unobserved. In this paper, we study decision making behavior of 11,196 taxi drivers in a large Asian city using a rich data set consisting of 10.6 million fine-grained GPS trip records. These records include detailed taxi GPS trajectories, taxi occupancy data (i.e., whether a taxi was occupied with a passenger or was vacant) and taxi drivers’ daily incomes. This capacity to use data where occupancy of the taxi is known is a distinctive feature of our data set and sets this work apart from prior work which has attempted to study driver behavior. The specific decision we focus on pertains to actions drivers take to find new passengers after they have dropped off their current passengers. In particular, we study the role of information derivable from the GPS trace data (e.g., where passengers are dropped off, where passengers are picked up, longitudinal taxicab travel history with fine-grained time stamps) observable by or made available to drivers in enabling them to learn the distribution of demand for their services over space and time. We conduct our study using a heterogeneous Bayesian learning model. We find strong heterogeneity in individual learning behavior and driving decisions, which is significantly associated with individual economic outcomes. Drivers with higher incomes benefit significantly from their ability to learn from not only demand information directly observable in the local market, but also aggregate information on demand flows across markets. Interestingly, our policy simulations indicate information that is noisy at the individual level becomes valuable after being aggregated across various spatial and temporal dimensions. Moreover, the value of information does not increase monotonically with the scale and frequency of information sharing. Finally, our study has important welfare implications in that efficient information sharing leads to an income increase among all drivers, instead of a redistribution of income between different types of drivers. Our work allows us not only to explain driver decision making behavior using these detailed behavioral traces, but also to prescribe information sharing strategy for the firm in order to improve the overall market efficiency. Initiating and bootstrapping secure, yet low-cost, ad-hoc transactions is an important challenge that needs to be overcome if the promise of mobile and pervasive computing is to be fulfilled. For example, mobile payment applications would benefit from the ability to pair devices securely without resorting to conventional mechanisms such as shared secrets, a Public Key Infrastructure (PKI), or trusted third parties. A number of methods have been proposed for doing this based on the use of a secondary out-of-band (OOB) channel that either authenticates information passed over the normal communication channel or otherwise establishes an authenticated shared secret which can be used for subsequent secure communication. A key element of the success of these methods is dependent on the performance and effectiveness of the OOB channel, which usually depends on people performing certain critical tasks correctly. In this paper, we present the results of a comparative usability study on methods that propose using humans to implement the OOB channel and argue that most of these proposals fail to take into account factors that may seriously harm the security and usability of a protocol. Our work builds on previous research in the usability of pairing methods and the accompanying recommendations for designing user interfaces that minimise human mistakes. Our findings show that the traditional methods of comparing and typing short strings into mobile devices are still preferable despite claims that new methods are more usable and secure, and that user interface design alone is not sufficient in mitigating human mistakes in OOB channels. Mobile phone usage provides a wealth of information, which can be used to better understand the demographic structure of a population. In this paper we focus on the population of Mexican mobile phone users. Our first contribution is an observational study of mobile phone usage according to gender and age groups. We were able to detect significant differences in phone usage among different subgroups of the population. Our second contribution is to provide a novel methodology to predict demographic features (namely age and gender) of unlabeled users by leveraging individual calling patterns, as well as the structure of the communication graph. We provide details of the methodology and show experimental results on a real world dataset that involves millions of users. The gender divide in the access to technology in developing economies makes gender characterization and automatic gender identification two of the most critical needs for improving cell phone-based services. Gender identification has been typically solved using voice or image processing. However, such techniques cannot be applied to cell phone networks mostly due to privacy concerns. In this paper, we present a study aimed at characterizing and automatically identifying the gender of a cell phone user in a developing economy based on behavioral, social and mobility variables. Our contributions are twofold: (1) understanding the role that gender plays on phone usage, and (2) evaluating common machine learning approaches for gender identification. The analysis was carried out using the encrypted CDRs (Call Detail Records) of approximately 10,000 users from a developing economy, whose gender was known a priori. Our results indicate that behavioral and social variables, including the number of input output calls and the in degree out degree of the social network, reveal statistically significant differences between male and female callers. Finally, we propose a new gender identification algorithm that can achieve classification rates of up to 80 when the percentage of predicted instances is reduced. In this paper, we investigate the relationship between automatically extracted behavioral characteristics derived from rich smartphone data and self-reported Big-Five personality traits (extraversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness, emotional stability and openness to experience). Our data stem from smartphones of 117 Nokia N95 smartphone users, collected over a continuous period of 17 months in Switzerland. From the analysis, we show that several aggregated features obtained from smartphone usage data can be indicators of the Big-Five traits. Next, we describe a machine learning method to detect the personality trait of a user based on smartphone usage. Finally, we study the benefits of using gender-specific models for this task. Apart from a psychological viewpoint, this study facilitates further research on the automated classification and usage of personality traits for personalizing services on smartphones. We propose a survey of soft computing techniques applied to financial market.We surveyed several primary studies proposed in the literature.A framework for building an intelligent trading system was proposed.Future directions of this research field are discussed. Financial markets play an important role on the economical and social organization of modern society. In these kinds of markets, information is an invaluable asset. However, with the modernization of the financial transactions and the information systems, the large amount of information available for a trader can make prohibitive the analysis of a financial asset. In the last decades, many researchers have attempted to develop computational intelligent methods and algorithms to support the decision-making in different financial market segments. In the literature, there is a huge number of scientific papers that investigate the use of computational intelligence techniques to solve financial market problems. However, only few studies have focused on review the literature of this topic. Most of the existing review articles have a limited scope, either by focusing on a specific financial market application or by focusing on a family of machine learning algorithms. This paper presents a review of the application of several computational intelligent methods in several financial applications. This paper gives an overview of the most important primary studies published from 2009 to 2015, which cover techniques for preprocessing and clustering of financial data, for forecasting future market movements, for mining financial text information, among others. The main contributions of this paper are: (i) a comprehensive review of the literature of this field, (ii) the definition of a systematic procedure for guiding the task of building an intelligent trading system and (iii) a discussion about the main challenges and open problems in this scientific field. This paper addresses the behavior of the selfish service providers in the form of IP sinks providing high-speed IP access. Service providers compete for mobile users by adjusting the price they charge for their services. Their aim is to maximize the total collected profit. Mobile users are also selfish choosing the service provider offering the best quality of service and price combination. As the service providers come closer to each other, we show the existence of three critical phase transitions in their behavior. Depending on the separation between them, there may exists a unique Nash equilibrium, or a continuum of Nash equilibria, or no Nash equilibrium. We completely characterize the pricing strategies of service providers at Nash equilibria. We also prove that the total social welfare in the presence of selfish providers is close to the maximum social welfare that can reached through non- selfish optimization. 3G networks are currently overloaded, due to the increasing popularity of various applications for smartphones. Offloading mobile data traffic through opportunistic communications is a promising solution to partially solve this problem, because there is almost no monetary cost for it. We propose to exploit opportunistic communications to facilitate information dissemination in the emerging Mobile Social Networks (MoSoNets) and thus reduce the amount of mobile data traffic. As a case study, we investigate the target-set selection problem for information delivery. In particular, we study how to select the target set with only k users, such that we can minimize the mobile data traffic over cellular networks. We propose three algorithms, called Greedy, Heuristic, and Random, for this problem and evaluate their performance through an extensive trace-driven simulation study. Our simulation results verify the efficiency of these algorithms for both synthetic and real-world mobility traces. For example, the Heuristic algorithm can offload mobile data traffic by up to 73.66 percent for a real-world mobility trace. Moreover, to investigate the feasibility of opportunistic communications for mobile phones, we implement a proof-of-concept prototype, called Opp-off, on Nokia N900 smartphones, which utilizes their Bluetooth interface for device service discovery and content transfer. Accurate and timely estimates of population characteristics are a critical input to social and economic research and policy. In industrialized economies, novel sources of data are enabling new approaches to demographic profiling, but in developing countries, fewer sources of big data exist. We show that an individual’s past history of mobile phone use can be used to infer his or her socioeconomic status. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the predicted attributes of millions of individuals can, in turn, accurately reconstruct the distribution of wealth of an entire nation or to infer the asset distribution of microregions composed of just a few households. In resource-constrained environments where censuses and household surveys are rare, this approach creates an option for gathering localized and timely information at a fraction of the cost of traditional methods. In this work, we discover the daily location-driven routines that are contained in a massive real-life human dataset collected by mobile phones. Our goal is the discovery and analysis of human routines that characterize both individual and group behaviors in terms of location patterns. We develop an unsupervised methodology based on two differing probabilistic topic models and apply them to the daily life of 97 mobile phone users over a 16-month period to achieve these goals. Topic models are probabilistic generative models for documents that identify the latent structure that underlies a set of words. Routines dominating the entire group's activities, identified with a methodology based on the Latent Dirichlet Allocation topic model, include “going to work late”, “going home early”, “working nonstop” and “having no reception (phone off)” at different times over varying time-intervals. We also detect routines which are characteristic of users, with a methodology based on the Author-Topic model. With the routines discovered, and the two methods of characterizing days and users, we can then perform various tasks. We use the routines discovered to determine behavioral patterns of users and groups of users. For example, we can find individuals that display specific daily routines, such as “going to work early” or “turning off the mobile (or having no reception) in the evenings”. We are also able to characterize daily patterns by determining the topic structure of days in addition to determining whether certain routines occur dominantly on weekends or weekdays. Furthermore, the routines discovered can be used to rank users or find subgroups of users who display certain routines. We can also characterize users based on their entropy. We compare our method to one based on clustering using K-means. Finally, we analyze an individual's routines over time to determine regions with high variations, which may correspond to specific events.