In this paper we study the problem of predictability in partially observable discrete event systems, i.e., the question whether an observer can predict the occurrence of a fault. We extend the definition of predictability to consider the time interval where the fault will occur: the @math -predictability does not only specify that the fault will be predicted before it occurs, but also that the predictor will be able to predict that its occurrence will occur in @math to @math observations from now. We also provide a quadratic algorithm that decides predictability of the system.
Predictability as presented in this paper was introduced by Genc and Lafortune @cite_13 . Their approach was however only Boolean: they addressed the question can the fault be predicted before it occurs?'' They presented an exponential space algorithm using a structure similar to our optimal predictor. They also announced the existence of a polytime algorithm, similar to the twin plant used for diagnosability and formally presented in an extension of their work @cite_3 .
@cite_13 @cite_3
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The exponential growth of computational power of the extreme scale machines over the past few decades has led to a corresponding decrease in reliability and a sharp increase of the frequency of hardware faults. Our research focuses on the mathematical challenges presented by the silent hardware faults; i.e., faults that can perturb the result of computations in an inconspicuous way. Using the approach of selective reliability, we present an analytic fault mode that can be used to study the resilience properties of a numerical algorithm. We apply our approach to the classical fixed point iteration and demonstrate that in the presence of hardware faults, the classical method fails to converge in expectation. We preset a modified resilient algorithm that detects and rejects faults resulting in error with large magnitude, while small faults are negated by the natural self-correcting properties of the algorithm. We show that our method is convergent (in first and second statistical moments) even in the presenc... To facilitate proactive fault management in large-scale systems such as IBM Blue Gene P, online failure prediction is of paramount importance. While many techniques have been presented for online failure prediction, questions arise regarding two commonly used approaches: period-based and event-driven. Which one has better accuracy? What is the best observation window (i.e., the time interval used to collect evidence before making a prediction)? How does the lead time (i.e., the time interval from the prediction to the failure occurrence) impact prediction arruracy? To answer these questions, we analyze and compare period-based and event-driven prediction approaches via a Bayesian prediction model. We evaluate these prediction approaches, under a variety of testing parameters, by means of RAS logs collected from a production supercomputer at Argonne National Laboratory. Experimental results show that the period-based Bayesian model and the event-driven Bayesian model can achieve up to 65.0 and 83.8 prediction accuracy, respectively. Furthermore, our sensitivity study indicates that the event-driven approach seems more suitable for proactive fault management in large-scale systems like Blue Gene P. This paper introduces a framework for inference of timed temporal logic properties from data. The dataset is given as a finite set of pairs of finite-time system traces and labels, where the labels indicate whether the traces exhibit some desired behavior (e.g., a ship traveling along a safe route). We propose a decision-tree based approach for learning signal temporal logic classifiers. The method produces binary decision trees that represent the inferred formulae. Each node of the tree contains a test associated with the satisfaction of a simple formula, optimally tuned from a predefined finite set of primitives. Optimality is assessed using heuristic impurity measures, which capture how well the current primitive splits the data with respect to the traces' labels. We propose extensions of the usual impurity measures from machine learning literature to handle classification of system traces by leveraging upon the robustness degree concept. The proposed incremental construction procedure greatly improves the execution time and the accuracy compared to existing algorithms. We present two case studies that illustrate the usefulness and the computational advantages of the algorithms. The first is an anomaly detection problem in a maritime environment. The second is a fault detection problem in an automotive powertrain system. A discrete event system that is predictable can anticipate faults and act accordingly. However, bare predictability (as found in the literature) has some drawbacks. One does not know exactly when a fault occurs (it could be immediately or long after it is predicted). We propose lower and upper bound refinements of predictability, called (lb; ub)-predictability. A lower bound guarantees a fault to occur after certain execution steps, whereas an upper bound guarantees a fault to occur, in the future, but before some steps. This information can be exploited by the system to adopt the best contingency plan. We formally define the notions of lb-predictability and ub-predictability, present a decision algorithm to verify it on arbitrary systems, and illustrate them with examples. We consider the problem of identifying the source of failure in a network after receiving alarms or having observed symptoms. To locate the root cause accurately and timely in a large communication system is challenging because a single fault can often result in a large number of alarms, and multiple faults can occur concurrently. In this paper, we present a new fault localization method using a machine-learning approach. We propose to use logistic regression to study the correlation among network events based on end-to-end measurements. Then based on the regression model, we develop fault hypothesis that best explains the observed symptoms. Unlike previous work, the machine-learning algorithm requires neither the knowledge of dependencies among network events, nor the probabilities of faults, nor the conditional probabilities of fault propagation as input. The “low requirement” feature makes it suitable for large complex networks where accurate dependencies and prior probabilities are difficult to obtain. We then evaluate the performance of the learning algorithm with respect to the accuracy of fault hypothesis and the concentration property. Experimental results and theoretical analysis both show satisfactory performance. These lecture notes highlight the mathematical and computational structure relating to the formulation of, and development of algorithms for, the Bayesian approach to inverse problems in differential equations. This approach is fundamental in the quantification of uncertainty within applications in volving the blending of mathematical models with data. The finite dimensional situation is described first, along with some motivational examples. Then the development of probability measures on separable Banach space is undertaken, using a random series over an infinite set of functions to construct draws; these probability measures are used as priors in the Bayesian approach to inverse problems. Regularity of draws from the priors is studied in the natural Sobolev or Besov spaces implied by the choice of functions in the random series construction, and the Kolmogorov continuity theorem is used to extend regularity considerations to the space of Holder continuous functions. Bayes’ theorem is de rived in this prior setting, and here interpreted as finding conditions under which the posterior is absolutely continuous with respect to the prior, and determining a formula for the Radon-Nikodym derivative in terms of the likelihood of the data. Having established the form of the posterior, we then describe various properties common to it in the infinite dimensional setting. These properties include well-posedness, approximation theory, and the existence of maximum a posteriori estimators. We then describe measure-preserving dynamics, again on the infinite dimensional space, including Markov chain-Monte C arlo and sequential Monte Carlo methods, and measure-preserving reversible stochastic differential equations. By formulating the theory and algorithms on the underlying infinite dimensional space, we obtain a framework suitable for rigorous analysis of the accuracy of reconstructions, of computational complexity, as well as naturally constructing algorithms which perform well under mesh refinement, since they are inherently well-defined in infinite dimensions. We consider scheduling on an unreliable machine that may experience unexpected changes in processing speed or even full breakdowns. We aim for a universal solution that performs well without adaptation for any possible machine behavior. For the objective of minimizing the total weighted completion time, we design a polynomial time deterministic algorithm that finds a universal scheduling sequence with a solution value within 4 times the value of an optimal clairvoyant algorithm that knows the disruptions in advance. A randomized version of this algorithm attains in expectation a ratio of e. We also show that both results are best possible among all universal solutions. As a direct consequence of our results, we answer affirmatively the question of whether a constant approximation algorithm exists for the offline version of the problem when machine unavailability periods are known in advance. When jobs have individual release dates, the situation changes drastically. Even if all weights are equal, there are instances for which any universal solution is a factor of Ω(logn loglogn) worse than an optimal sequence. Motivated by this hardness, we study the special case when the processing time of each job is proportional to its weight. We present a non-trivial algorithm with a small constant performance guarantee. This paper develops a probabilistic anticipation algorithm for dynamic objects observed by an autonomous robot in an urban environment. Predictive Gaussian mixture models are used due to their ability to probabilistically capture continuous and discrete obstacle decisions and behaviors; the predictive system uses the probabilistic output (state estimate and covariance) of a tracking system and map of the environment to compute the probability distribution over future obstacle states for a specified anticipation horizon. A Gaussian splitting method is proposed based on the sigma-point transform and the nonlinear dynamics function, which enables increased accuracy as the number of mixands grows. An approach to caching elements of this optimal splitting method is proposed, in order to enable real-time implementation. Simulation results and evaluations on data from the research community demonstrate that the proposed algorithm can accurately anticipate the probability distributions over future states of nonlinear systems. We present a novel probabilistic approach for fitting a statistical model to an image. A 3D Morphable Model (3DMM) of faces is interpreted as a generative (Top-Down) Bayesian model. Random Forests are used as noisy detectors (Bottom-Up) for the face and facial landmark positions. The Top-Down and Bottom-Up parts are then combined using a Data-Driven Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method (DDMCMC). As core of the integration, we use the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm which has two main advantages. First, the algorithm can handle unreliable detections and therefore does not need the detectors to take an early and possible wrong hard decision before fitting. Second, it is open for integration of various cues to guide the fitting process. Based on the proposed approach, we implemented a completely automatic, pose and illumination invariant face recognition application. We are able to train and test the building blocks of our application on different databases. The system is evaluated on the Multi-PIE database and reaches state of the art performance. If one possesses a model of a controlled deterministic system, then from any state, one may consider the set of all possible reachable states starting from that state and using any sequence of actions. This forms a tree whose size is exponential in the planning time horizon. Here we ask the question: given finite computational resources (e.g. CPU time), which may not be known ahead of time, what is the best way to explore this tree, such that once all resources have been used, the algorithm would be able to propose an action (or a sequence of actions) whose performance is as close as possible to optimality? The performance with respect to optimality is assessed in terms of the regret (with respect to the sum of discounted future rewards) resulting from choosing the action returned by the algorithm instead of an optimal action. In this paper we investigate an optimistic exploration of the tree, where the most promising states are explored first, and compare this approach to a naive uniform exploration. Bounds on the regret are derived both for uniform and optimistic exploration strategies. Numerical simulations illustrate the benefit of optimistic planning. Analyzing, understanding and predicting failure is of paramount importance to achieve effective fault management. While various fault prediction methods have been studied in the past, many of them are not practical for use in real systems. In particular, they fail to address two crucial issues: one is to provide location information (i.e., the components where the failure is expected to occur on) and the other is to provide sufficient lead time (i.e., the time interval preceding the time of failure occurrence). In this paper, we first refine the widely-used metrics for evaluating prediction accuracy by including location as well as lead time. We, then, present a practical failure prediction mechanism for IBM Blue Gene systems. A Genetic Algorithm based method is exploited, which takes into consideration the location and the lead time for failure prediction. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this mechanism by means of real failure logs and job logs collected from the IBM Blue Gene P system at Argonne National Laboratory. Our experiments show that the presented method can significantly improve fault management (e.g., to reduce service unit loss by up to 52.4 ) by incorporating location and lead time information in the prediction. We consider the problem of scheduling a number of jobs on a single machine against a restrictive common due date. The paper consists of two parts: firstly a new and appropriate problem representation is developed. As the restrictive common due date problem is known to be intractable we decided, secondly, to apply meta-heuristics, namely evolutionary strategies, simulated annealing and threshold accepting. We demonstrate that our application of these meta-heuristics is efficient in obtaining near-optimal solutions by solving 140 benchmark problems with up to 1000 jobs. Furthermore, we compare their solution quality and find that a new variant of threshold accepting is superior to the other approaches. Let f be a random Boolean formula that is an instance of 3-SAT. We consider the problem of computing the least real number k such that if the ratio of the number of clauses over the number of variables of f strictly exceeds k , then f is almost certainly unsatisfiable. By a well-known and more or less straightforward argument, it can be shown that kF5.191. This upper bound was improved by to 4.758 by first providing new improved bounds for the occupancy problem. There is strong experimental evidence that the value of k is around 4.2. In this work, we define, in terms of the random formula f, a decreasing sequence of random variables such that, if the expected value of any one of them converges to zero, then f is almost certainly unsatisfiable. By letting the expected value of the first term of the sequence converge to zero, we obtain, by simple and elementary computations, an upper bound for k equal to 4.667. From the expected value of the second term of the sequence, we get the value 4.601q . In general, by letting the U This work was performed while the first author was visiting the School of Computer Science, Carleton Ž University, and was partially supported by NSERC Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council . of Canada , and by a grant from the University of Patras for sabbatical leaves. The second and third Ž authors were supported in part by grants from NSERC Natural Sciences and Engineering Research . Council of Canada . During the last stages of this research, the first and last authors were also partially Ž . supported by EU ESPRIT Long-Term Research Project ALCOM-IT Project No. 20244 . †An extended abstract of this paper was published in the Proceedings of the Fourth Annual European Ž Symposium on Algorithms, ESA’96, September 25]27, 1996, Barcelona, Spain Springer-Verlag, LNCS, . pp. 27]38 . That extended abstract was coauthored by the first three authors of the present paper. Correspondence to: L. M. Kirousis Q 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. CCC 1042-9832r98r030253-17 253 We present a scalable reachability algorithm for hybrid systems with piecewise affine, non-deterministic dynamics. It combines polyhedra and support function representations of continuous sets to compute an over-approximation of the reachable states. The algorithm improves over previous work by using variable time steps to guarantee a given local error bound. In addition, we propose an improved approximation model, which drastically improves the accuracy of the algorithm. The algorithm is implemented as part of SpaceEx, a new verification platform for hybrid systems, available at spaceex.imag.fr. Experimental results of full fixed-point computations with hybrid systems with more than 100 variables illustrate the scalability of the approach. Reliable systems have always been built out of unreliable components [1]. Early on, the reliable components were small such as mirrored disks or ECC (Error Correcting Codes) in core memory. These systems were designed such that failures of these small components were transparent to the application. Later, the size of the unreliable components grew larger and semantic challenges crept into the application when failures occurred. Fault tolerant algorithms comprise a set of idempotent subalgorithms. Between these idempotent sub-algorithms, state is sent across the failure boundaries of the unreliable components. The failure of an unreliable component can then be tolerated as a takeover by a backup, which uses the last known state and drives forward with a retry of the idempotent sub-algorithm. Classically, this has been done in a linear fashion (i.e. one step at a time). As the granularity of the unreliable component grows (from a mirrored disk to a system to a data center), the latency to communicate with a backup becomes unpalatable. This leads to a more relaxed model for fault tolerance. The primary system will acknowledge the work request and its actions without waiting to ensure that the backup is notified of the work. This improves the responsiveness of the system because the user is not delayed behind a slow interaction with the backup. There are two implications of asynchronous state capture: 1) Everything promised by the primary is probabilistic. There is always a chance that an untimely failure shortly after the promise results in a backup proceeding without knowledge of the commitment. Hence, nothing is guaranteed! 2) Applications must ensure eventual consistency [20]. Since work may be stuck in the primary after a failure and reappear later, the processing order for work cannot be guaranteed. Platform designers are struggling to make this easier for their applications. Emerging patterns of eventual consistency and probabilistic execution may soon yield a way for applications to express requirements for a “looser” form of consistency while providing availability in the face of ever larger failures. As we will also point out in this paper, the patterns of probabilistic execution and eventual consistency are applicable to intermittently connected application patterns. This paper recounts portions of the evolution of these trends, attempts to show the patterns that span these changes, and talks about future directions as we continue to “build on quicksand”. We consider the makespan-minimization problem on unrelated machines in the context of algorithmic mechanism design. No truthful mechanisms with non-trivial approximation guarantees are known for this multidimensional domain. We study a well-motivated special case (also a multidimensional domain), where the processing time of a job on each machine is either "low" or "high." We give a general technique to convert any c-approximation algorithm (in a black-box fashion) to a 3c-approximation truthful-in-expectation mechanism. Our construction uses fractional truthful mechanisms as a building block, and builds upon a technique of Lavi and Swamy [Lavi, R., Swamy, C., 2005. Truthful and near-optimal mechanism design via linear programming. In: Proc. 46th FOCS, pp. 595-604]. When all jobs have identical low and high values, we devise a deterministic 2-approximation truthful mechanism. The chief novelty of our results is that we do not utilize explicit price definitions to prove truthfulness. Instead we design algorithms that satisfy cycle monotonicity [Rochet, J., 1987. A necessary and sufficient condition for rationalizability in a quasilinear context. J. Math. Econ. 16, 191-200], a necessary and sufficient condition for truthfulness in multidimensional settings; this is the first work that leverages this characterization. We study a natural generalization of the problem of minimizing makespan on unrelated machines in which jobs may be split into parts. The different parts of a job can be (simultaneously) processed on different machines, but each part requires a setup time before it can be processed. First we show that a natural adaptation of the seminal approximation algorithm for unrelated machine scheduling [11] yields a 3-approximation algorithm, equal to the integrality gap of the corresponding LP relaxation. Through a stronger LP relaxation, obtained by applying a lift-and-project procedure, we are able to improve both the integrality gap and the implied approximation factor to 1 + φ, where φ ≈ 1.618 is the golden ratio. This ratio decreases to 2 in the restricted assignment setting, matching the result for the classic version. Interestingly, we show that our problem cannot be approximated within a factor better than e e-1 ≈ 1.582 (unless P = NP). This provides some evidence that it is harder than the classic version, which is only known to be inapproximable within a factor 1.5 - e. Since our 1 + φ bound remains tight when considering the seemingly stronger machine configuration LP, we propose a new job based configuration LP that has an infinite number of variables, one for each possible way a job may be split and processed on the machines. Using convex duality we show that this infinite LP has a finite representation and can be solved in polynomial time to any accuracy, rendering it a promising relaxation for obtaining better algorithms. © 2014 Springer International Publishing Switzerland. A companion paper Part I considers the problem of minimizing the weighted earliness and tardiness of jobs scheduled on a single machine around a common due date, d, which is unrestrictively late. This paper Part II considers the problem of minimizing the unweighted earliness and tardiness of jobs, allowing the possibility that d is early enough to constrain the scheduling decision. We describe several optimality conditions. The recognition version of the problem is shown to be NP-complete in the ordinary sense, confirming a well known conjecture. Moreover, this complexity definition is precise, since we describe a dynamic programming algorithm which runs in pseudopolynomial time. This algorithm is also extremely efficient computationally, providing an improvement over earlier procedures, of almost two orders of magnitude in the size of instance that can be solved. Finally, we describe a special case of the problem which is polynomially solvable. We present a replanning algorithm for repairing rapidly-exploring random trees when changes are made to the configuration space. Instead of abandoning the current RRT, our algorithm efficiently removes just the newly-invalid parts and maintains the rest. It then grows the resulting tree until a new solution is found. We use this algorithm to create a probabilistic analog to the widely-used D* family of deterministic algorithms, and demonstrate its effectiveness in a multirobot planning domain As the failure frequency is increasing with the components count in modern and future supercomputers, resilience is becoming critical for extreme scale systems. The association of failure prediction with proactive checkpointing seeks to reduce the effect of failures in the execution time of parallel applications. Unfortunately, proactive checkpointing does not systematically avoid restarting from scratch. To mitigate this issue, failure prediction and proactive checkpointing can be coupled with periodic checkpointing. However, blind use of these techniques does not always improves system efficiency, because everyone of them comes with a mix of overheads and benefits. In order to study and understand the combination of these techniques and their improvement in the system's efficiency, we developed: (i) a prototype combining state of the art failure prediction, fast proactive checkpointing and preventive checkpointing; (ii) a mathematical model that reflects the expected computing efficiency of the combination and computes the optimal checkpointing interval in this context; (iii) a discrete event simulator to evaluate the computing efficiency of the combination for system parameters corresponding to the current and projected large scale HPC systems. We evaluate our proposed technique on a large supercomputer (i.e. TSUBAME2) with production-level HPC applications and we show that failure prediction, proactive and preventive checkpointing can be coupled successfully, imposing only about 2 to 6 of overhead in comparison with preventive checkpointing only. Moreover, our model-based simulations show that the optimal solution improves the computing efficiency up to 30 in comparison with classic periodic checkpointing. We show that the prediction recall has a much higher impact on execution efficiency than the prediction precision. This result suggests that researchers on failure prediction algorithms should focus on improving the recall. We also show that the combination of these techniques can significantly improve (by a factor 2, for a particular configuration) the mean time between failures (MTBF) perceived by the application.