While a plethora of hypertext links exist on the Web, only a small amount of them are regularly clicked. Starting from this observation, we set out to study large-scale click data from Wikipedia in order to understand what makes a link successful. We systematically analyze effects of link properties on the popularity of links. By utilizing mixed-effects hurdle models supplemented with descriptive insights, we find evidence of user preference towards links leading to the periphery of the network, towards links leading to semantically similar articles, and towards links in the top and left-side of the screen. We integrate these findings as Bayesian priors into a navigational Markov chain model and by doing so successfully improve the model fits. We further adapt and improve the well-known classic PageRank algorithm that assumes random navigation by accounting for observed navigational preferences of users in a weighted variation. This work facilitates understanding navigational click behavior and thus can contribute to improving link structures and algorithms utilizing these structures.
Since the inception of the Web, our research community has been interested in studying human navigational click data on the Web---e.g., see @cite_34 . In this line of research, a variety of models has been proposed including the well-known Markov chain model utilized in this work @cite_35 @cite_5 @cite_25 @cite_7 , or models such as decentralized search @cite_14 @cite_41 motivated by small-world navigation @cite_46 .
@cite_35 @cite_14 @cite_7 @cite_41 @cite_5 @cite_46 @cite_34 @cite_25
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One of the most frequently used models for understanding human navigation on the Web is the Markov chain model, where Web pages are represented as states and hyperlinks as probabilities of navigating from one page to another. Predominantly, human navigation on the Web has been thought to satisfy the memoryless Markov property stating that the next page a user visits only depends on her current page and not on previously visited ones. This idea has found its way in numerous applications such as Google's PageRank algorithm and others. Recently, new studies suggested that human navigation may better be modeled using higher order Markov chain models, i.e., the next page depends on a longer history of past clicks. Yet, this finding is preliminary and does not account for the higher complexity of higher order Markov chain models which is why the memoryless model is still widely used. In this work we thoroughly present a diverse array of advanced inference methods for determining the appropriate Markov chain order. We highlight strengths and weaknesses of each method and apply them for investigating memory and structure of human navigation on the Web. Our experiments reveal that the complexity of higher order models grows faster than their utility, and thus we confirm that the memoryless model represents a quite practical model for human navigation on a page level. However, when we expand our analysis to a topical level, where we abstract away from specific page transitions to transitions between topics, we find that the memoryless assumption is violated and specific regularities can be observed. We report results from experiments with two types of navigational datasets (goal-oriented vs. free form) and observe interesting structural differences that make a strong argument for more contextual studies of human navigation in future work. Models of human navigation play an important role for understanding and facilitating user behavior in hypertext systems. In this paper, we conduct a series of principled experiments with decentralized search - an established model of human navigation in social networks - and study its applicability to information networks. We apply several variations of decentralized search to model human navigation in information networks and we evaluate the outcome in a series of experiments. In these experiments, we study the validity of decentralized search by comparing it with human navigational paths from an actual information network - Wikipedia. We find that (i) navigation in social networks appears to differ from human navigation in information networks in interesting ways and (ii) in order to apply decentralized search to information networks, stochastic adaptations are required. Our work illuminates a way towards using decentralized search as a valid model for human navigation in information networks in future work. Our results are relevant for scientists who are interested in modeling human behavior in information networks and for engineers who are interested in using models and simulations of human behavior to improve on structural or user interface aspects of hypertextual systems. Abstract The enormous growth in the number of documents in the World Wide Web increases the need for improved link navigation and path analysis models. Link prediction and path analysis are important problems with a wide range of applications ranging from personalization to Web server request prediction. The sheer size of the World Wide Web coupled with the variation in users' navigation patterns makes this a very difficult sequence modelling problem. In this paper, the notion of probabilistic link prediction and path analysis using Markov chains is proposed and evaluated. Markov chains allow the system to dynamically model the URL access patterns that are observed in navigation logs based on the previous state. Furthermore, the Markov chain model can also be used in a generative mode to automatically obtain tours. The Markov transition matrix can be analysed further using eigenvector decomposition to obtain personalized hubs authorities'. The utility of the Markov chain approach is demonstrated in many domains: HTTP request prediction, system-driven adaptive Web navigation, tour generation, and detection of personalized hubs authorities' from user navigation profiles. The generality and power of Markov chains is a first step towards the application of powerful probabilistic models to Web path analysis and link prediction. When users interact with the Web today, they leave sequential digital trails on a massive scale. Examples of such human trails include Web navigation, sequences of online restaurant reviews, or online music play lists. Understanding the factors that drive the production of these trails can be useful for e.g., improving underlying network structures, predicting user clicks or enhancing recommendations. In this work, we present a general approach called HypTrails for comparing a set of hypotheses about human trails on the Web, where hypotheses represent beliefs about transitions between states. Our approach utilizes Markov chain models with Bayesian inference. The main idea is to incorporate hypotheses as informative Dirichlet priors and to leverage the sensitivity of Bayes factors on the prior for comparing hypotheses with each other. For eliciting Dirichlet priors from hypotheses, we present an adaption of the so-called (trial) roulette method. We demonstrate the general mechanics and applicability of HypTrails by performing experiments with (i) synthetic trails for which we control the mechanisms that have produced them and (ii) empirical trails stemming from different domains including website navigation, business reviews and online music played. Our work expands the repertoire of methods available for studying human trails on the Web. This paper presents findings from a study of how knowledge workers use the Web to seek external information as part of their daily work. Thirty-four users from seven companies took part in the study. Participants were mainly IT specialists, managers, and research marketing consulting staff working in organizations that included a large utility company, a major bank, and a consulting firm. Participants answered a detailed questionnaire and were interviewed individually in order to understand their information needs and information seeking preferences. A custom-developed WebTracker software application was installed on each of their work place PCs, and participants' Web-use activities were then recorded continuously during two-week periods. The WebTracker recorded how participants used the browser to seek information on the Web: it logged menu choices, button bar selections, and keystroke actions, allowing browsing and searching sequences to be reconstructed. In a second round of personal interviews, participants recalled critical incidents of using information from the Web. Data from the two interviews and the WebTracker logs constituted the database for analysis. Sixty-one significant episodes of information seeking were identified. A model was developed to describe the common repertoires of information seeking that were observed. On one axis of the model, episodes were plotted according to the four scanning modes identified by Aguilar (1967), Weick and Daft (1983): undirected viewing, conditioned viewing, informal search, and formal search. Each mode is characterized by its own information needs and information seeking strategies. On the other axis of the model, episodes were plotted according to the occurrence of one or more of the six categories of information seeking behaviors identified by Ellis (1989, 1990): starting, chaining, browsing, differentiating, monitoring, and extracting. The study suggests that a behavioral framework that relates motivations (Aguilar) and moves (Ellis) may be helpful in analyzing patterns of Web-based information seeking. Background: Intricate maps of science have been created from citation data to visualize the structure of scientific activity. However, most scientific publications are now accessed online. Scholarly web portals record detailed log data at a scale that exceeds the number of all existing citations combined. Such log data is recorded immediately upon publication and keeps track of the sequences of user requests (clickstreams) that are issued by a variety of users across many different domains. Given these advantages of log datasets over citation data, we investigate whether they can produce high-resolution, more current maps of science. Methodology: Over the course of 2007 and 2008, we collected nearly 1 billion user interactions recorded by the scholarly web portals of some of the most significant publishers, aggregators and institutional consortia. The resulting reference data set covers a significant part of world-wide use of scholarly web portals in 2006, and provides a balanced coverage of the humanities, social sciences, and natural sciences. A journal clickstream model, i.e. a first-order Markov chain, was extracted from the sequences of user interactions in the logs. The clickstream model was validated by comparing it to the Getty Research Institute’s Architecture and Art Thesaurus. The resulting model was visualized as a journal network that outlines the relationships between various scientific domains and clarifies the connection of the social sciences and humanities to the natural sciences. Conclusions: Maps of science resulting from large-scale clickstream data provide a detailed, contemporary view of scientific activity and correct the underrepresentation of the social sciences and humanities that is commonly found in citation data. An important part of finding information online involves clicking from page to page until an information need is fully satisfied. This is a complex task that can easily be frustrating and force users to give up prematurely. An empirical analysis of what makes users abandon click-based navigation tasks is hard, since most passively collected browsing logs do not specify the exact target page that a user was trying to reach. We propose to overcome this problem by using data collected via Wikispeedia, a Wikipedia-based human-computation game, in which users are asked to navigate from a start page to an explicitly given target page (both Wikipedia articles) by only tracing hyperlinks between Wikipedia articles. Our contributions are two-fold. First, by analyzing the differences between successful and abandoned navigation paths, we aim to understand what types of behavior are indicative of users giving up their navigation task. We also investigate how users make use of back clicks during their navigation. We find that users prefer backtracking to high-degree nodes that serve as landmarks and hubs for exploring the network of pages. Second, based on our analysis, we build statistical models for predicting whether a user will finish or abandon a navigation task, and if the next action will be a back click. Being able to predict these events is important as it can potentially help us design more human-friendly browsing interfaces and retain users who would otherwise have given up navigating a website. User mobility has given rise to a variety of Web applications, in which the global positioning system (GPS) plays many important roles in bridging between these applications and end users. As a kind of human behavior, transportation modes, such as walking and driving, can provide pervasive computing systems with more contextual information and enrich a user's mobility with informative knowledge. In this article, we report on an approach based on supervised learning to automatically infer users' transportation modes, including driving, walking, taking a bus and riding a bike, from raw GPS logs. Our approach consists of three parts: a change point-based segmentation method, an inference model and a graph-based post-processing algorithm. First, we propose a change point-based segmentation method to partition each GPS trajectory into separate segments of different transportation modes. Second, from each segment, we identify a set of sophisticated features, which are not affected by differing traffic conditions (e.g., a person's direction when in a car is constrained more by the road than any change in traffic conditions). Later, these features are fed to a generative inference model to classify the segments of different modes. Third, we conduct graph-based postprocessing to further improve the inference performance. This postprocessing algorithm considers both the commonsense constraints of the real world and typical user behaviors based on locations in a probabilistic manner. The advantages of our method over the related works include three aspects. (1) Our approach can effectively segment trajectories containing multiple transportation modes. (2) Our work mined the location constraints from user-generated GPS logs, while being independent of additional sensor data and map information like road networks and bus stops. (3) The model learned from the dataset of some users can be applied to infer GPS data from others. Using the GPS logs collected by 65 people over a period of 10 months, we evaluated our approach via a set of experiments. As a result, based on the change-point-based segmentation method and Decision Tree-based inference model, we achieved prediction accuracy greater than 71 percent. Further, using the graph-based post-processing algorithm, the performance attained a 4-percent enhancement. In this work we study how people navigate the information network of Wikipedia and investigate i free-form navigation by studying all clicks within the English Wikipedia over an entire month and ii goal-directed Wikipedia navigation by analyzing wikigames, where users are challenged to retrieve articles by following links. To study how the organization of Wikipedia articles in terms of layout and links affects navigation behavior, we first investigate the characteristics of the structural organization and of hyperlinks in Wikipedia and then evaluate link selection models based on article structure and other potential influences in navigation, such as the generality of an article's topic. In free-form Wikipedia navigation, covering all Wikipedia usage scenarios, we find that click choices can be best modeled by a bias towards article structure, such as a tendency to click links located in the lead section. For the goal-directed navigation of wikigames, our findings confirm the zoom-out and the homing-in phases identified by previous work, where users are guided by generality at first and textual similarity to the target later. However, our interpretation of the link selection models accentuates that article structure is the best explanation for the navigation paths in all except these initial and final stages. Overall, we find evidence that users more frequently click on links that are located close to the top of an article. The structure of Wikipedia articles, which places links to more general concepts near the top, supports navigation by allowing users to quickly find the better-connected articles that facilitate navigation. Our results highlight the importance of article structure and link position in Wikipedia navigation and suggest that better organization of information can help make information networks more navigable. Geographic information has spawned many novel Web applications where global positioning system (GPS) plays important roles in bridging the applications and end users. Learning knowledge from users' raw GPS data can provide rich context information for both geographic and mobile applications. However, so far, raw GPS data are still used directly without much understanding. In this paper, an approach based on supervised learning is proposed to automatically infer transportation mode from raw GPS data. The transportation mode, such as walking, driving, etc., implied in a user's GPS data can provide us valuable knowledge to understand the user. It also enables context-aware computing based on user's present transportation mode and design of an innovative user interface for Web users. Our approach consists of three parts: a change point-based segmentation method, an inference model and a post-processing algorithm based on conditional probability. The change point-based segmentation method was compared with two baselines including uniform duration based and uniform length based methods. Meanwhile, four different inference models including Decision Tree, Bayesian Net, Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Conditional Random Field (CRF) are studied in the experiments. We evaluated the approach using the GPS data collected by 45 users over six months period. As a result, beyond other two segmentation methods, the change point based method achieved a higher degree of accuracy in predicting transportation modes and detecting transitions between them. Decision Tree outperformed other inference models over the change point based segmentation method. As humans we possess an intuitive ability for navigation which we master through years of practice; however existing approaches to model this trait for diverse tasks including monitoring pedestrian flow and detecting abnormal events have been limited by using a variety of hand-crafted features. Recent research in the area of deep-learning has demonstrated the power of learning features directly from the data; and related research in recurrent neural networks has shown exemplary results in sequence-to-sequence problems such as neural machine translation and neural image caption generation. Motivated by these approaches, we propose a novel method to predict the future motion of a pedestrian given a short history of their, and their neighbours, past behaviour. The novelty of the proposed method is the combined attention model which utilises both "soft attention" as well as "hard-wired" attention in order to map the trajectory information from the local neighbourhood to the future positions of the pedestrian of interest. We illustrate how a simple approximation of attention weights (i.e hard-wired) can be merged together with soft attention weights in order to make our model applicable for challenging real world scenarios with hundreds of neighbours. The navigational capability of the proposed method is tested on two challenging publicly available surveillance databases where our model outperforms the current-state-of-the-art methods. Additionally, we illustrate how the proposed architecture can be directly applied for the task of abnormal event detection without handcrafting the features. Both recognizing human behavior and understanding a user's mobility from sensor data are critical issues in ubiquitous computing systems. As a kind of user behavior, the transportation modes, such as walking, driving, etc., that a user takes, can enrich the user's mobility with informative knowledge and provide pervasive computing systems with more context information. In this paper, we propose an approach based on supervised learning to infer people's motion modes from their GPS logs. The contribution of this work lies in the following two aspects. On one hand, we identify a set of sophisticated features, which are more robust to traffic condition than those other researchers ever used. On the other hand, we propose a graph-based post-processing algorithm to further improve the inference performance. This algorithm considers both the commonsense constraint of real world and typical user behavior based on location in a probabilistic manner. Using the GPS logs collected by 65 people over a period of 10 months, we evaluated our approach via a set of experiments. As a result, based on the change point-based segmentation method and Decision Tree-based inference model, the new features brought an eight percent improvement in inference accuracy over previous result, and the graph-based post-processing achieve a further four percent enhancement. People regularly face tasks that can be understood as navigation in information networks, where the goal is to find a path between two given nodes. In many such situations, the navigator only gets local access to the node currently under inspection and its immediate neighbors. This lack of global information about the network notwithstanding, humans tend to be good at finding short paths, despite the fact that realworld networks are typically very large. One potential reason for this could be that humans possess vast amounts of background knowledge about the world, which they leverage to make good guesses about possible solutions. In this paper we ask the question: Are human-like high-level reasoning skills really necessary for finding short paths? To answer this question, we design a number of navigation agents without such skills, which use only simple numerical features. We evaluate the agents on the task of navigating Wikipedia, a domain for which we also possess large-scale human navigation data. We observe that the agents find shorter paths than humans on average and therefore conclude that, perhaps surprisingly, no sophisticated background knowledge or high-level reasoning is required for navigating the complex Wikipedia network. The collection of huge amount of tracking data made possible by the widespread use of GPS devices, enabled the analysis of such data for several applications domains, ranging from traffic management to advertisement and social studies. However, the raw positioning data, as it is detected by GPS devices, lacks of semantic information since this data does not natively provide any additional contextual information like the places that people visited or the activities performed. Traditionally, this information is collected by hand filled questionnaire where a limited number of users are asked to annotate their tracks with the activities they have done. With the purpose of getting large amount of semantically rich trajectories, we propose an algorithm for automatically annotating raw trajectories with the activities performed by the users. To do this, we analyse the stops points trying to infer the Point Of Interest (POI) the user has visited. Based on the category of the POI and a probability measure based on the gravity law, we infer the activity performed. We experimented and evaluated the method in a real case study of car trajectories, manually annotated by users with their activities. Experimental results are encouraging and will drive our future works. We propose a new model to interpret the clickthrough logs of a web search engine. This model is based on explicit assumptions on the user behavior. In particular, we draw conclusions on a document relevance by observing the user behavior after he examined the document and not based on whether a user clicks or not a document url. This results in a model based on intrinsic relevance, as opposed to perceived relevance. We use the model to predict document relevance and then use this as feature for a "Learning to Rank" machine learning algorithm. Comparing the ranking functions obtained by training the algorithm with and without the new feature we observe surprisingly good results. This is particularly notable given that the baseline we use is the heavily optimized ranking function of a leading commercial search engine. A deeper analysis shows that the new feature is particularly helpful for non navigational queries and queries with a large abandonment rate or a large average number of queries per session. This is important because these types of query is considered to be the most difficult to solve. Recent advances in click model have positioned it as an attractive method for representing user preferences in web search and online advertising. Yet, most of the existing works focus on training the click model for individual queries, and cannot accurately model the tail queries due to the lack of training data. Simultaneously, most of the existing works consider the query, url and position, neglecting some other important attributes in click log data, such as the local time. Obviously, the click through rate is different between daytime and midnight. In this paper, we propose a novel click model based on Bayesian network, which is capable of modeling the tail queries because it builds the click model on attribute values, with those values being shared across queries. We called our work General Click Model (GCM) as we found that most of the existing works can be special cases of GCM by assigning different parameters. Experimental results on a large-scale commercial advertisement dataset show that GCM can significantly and consistently lead to better results as compared to the state-of-the-art works. In this paper, we formulate visual tracking as random walks on graph models with nodes representing superpixels and edges denoting relationships between superpixels. We integrate two novel graphs with the theory of Markov random walks, resulting in two Markov chains. First, an ergodic Markov chain is enforced to globally search for the candidate nodes with similar features to the template nodes. Second, an absorbing Markov chain is utilized to model the temporal coherence between consecutive frames. The final confidence map is generated by a structural model which combines both appearance similarity measurement derived by the random walks and internal spatial layout demonstrated by different target parts. The effectiveness of the proposed Markov chains as well as the structural model is evaluated both qualitatively and quantitatively. Experimental results on challenging sequences show that the proposed tracking algorithm performs favorably against state-of-the-art methods. Clickstream data provide information about the sequence of pages or the path viewed by users as they navigate a website. We show how path information can be categorized and modeled using a dynamic multinomial probit model of Web browsing. We estimate this model using data from a major online bookseller. Our results show that the memory component of the model is crucial in accurately predicting a path. In comparison, traditional multinomial probit and first-order Markov models predict paths poorly. These results suggest that paths may reflect a user's goals, which could be helpful in predicting future movements at a website. One potential application of our model is to predict purchase conversion. We find that after only six viewings purchasers can be predicted with more than 40 accuracy, which is much better than the benchmark 7 purchase conversion prediction rate made without path information. This technique could be used to personalize Web designs and product offerings based upon a user's path. We present a novel approach for real-time and proactive navigation in crowded environments such as event spaces and urban areas where many people are moving to their destinations simultaneously. Our challenge is to develop a real-time navigation system that enables movements of entire groups to be efficiently guided without causing congestion by making near-future predictions of people flow. Our approach tries to detect future congestion by using a spatio-temporal statistical method that predicts people flow. When future congestion is detected, our approach creates an optimal navigation plan based on "what-if" simulations, which accounts for the effect of total people flow change caused by navigation. We experimentally compare the spatio-temporal statistical method with the conventional matrix factorization based approach using a real data set. We also demonstrate the effectiveness of our navigation approach by computer simulation using artificial people-flow data. Recent research has shown that surprisingly rich models of human behavior can be learned from GPS (positional) data. However, most research to date has concentrated on modeling single individuals or aggregate statistical properties of groups of people. Given noisy real-world GPS data, we—in contrast—consider the problem of modeling and recognizing activities that involve multiple related individuals playing a variety of roles. Our test domain is the game of capture the flag—an outdoor game that involves many distinct cooperative and competitive joint activities. We model the domain using Markov logic, a statistical relational language, and learn a theory that jointly denoises the data and infers occurrences of high-level activities, such as capturing a player. Our model combines constraints imposed by the geometry of the game area, the motion model of the players, and by the rules and dynamics of the game in a probabilistically and logically sound fashion. We show that while it may be impossible to directly detect a multi-agent activity due to sensor noise or malfunction, the occurrence of the activity can still be inferred by considering both its impact on the future behaviors of the people involved as well as the events that could have preceded it. We compare our unified approach with three alternatives (both probabilistic and nonprobabilistic) where either the denoising of the GPS data and the detection of the high-level activities are strictly separated, or the states of the players are not considered, or both. We show that the unified approach with the time window spanning the entire game, although more computationally costly, is significantly more accurate.