In this paper, computational aspects of the panel aggregation problem are addressed. Motivated primarily by applications of risk assessment, an algorithm is developed for aggregating large corpora of internally incoherent probability assessments. The algorithm is characterized by a provable performance guarantee, and is demonstrated to be orders of magnitude faster than existing tools when tested on several real-world data-sets. In addition, unexpected connections between research in risk assessment and wireless sensor networks are exposed, as several key ideas are illustrated to be useful in both fields.
@cite_20 consider a Bayesian approach to reconciling probability forecasts, whereby noisy" observations @math are assumed to arise from a coherent set @math . CAP can be viewed as a special-case of their model, since as discussed above, the solution to ) admits a Bayesian interpretation as the maximum-likelihood coherent forecasts given additive white noise corrupted observations @math . However, note that @cite_20 sought to eliminate incoherence from a single judge, whereas CAP was introduced to address the panel aggregation problem. Moreover, Osherson and Vardi were motivated by non-statistical interpretations of CAP and as here, addressed the computational issue of implementing CAP.
@cite_20
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We address the problem of ranking question answerers according to their credibility, characterized here by the probability that a given question answerer (user) will be awarded a best answer on a question given the answerer’s question-answering history. This probability (represented by θ ) is considered to be a hidden variable that can only be estimated statistically from specific observations associated with the user, namely the number b of best answers awarded, associated with the number n of questions answered. The more specific problem addressed is the potentially high degree of uncertainty associated with such credibility estimates when they are based on small numbers of answers. We address this problem by a kind of Bayesian smoothing. The credibility estimate will consist of a mixture of the overall population statistics and those of the specific user. The greater the number of questions asked, the greater will be the contribution of the specific user statistics relative to those of the overall population. We use the Predictive Stochastic Complexity (PSC) as an accuracy measure to evaluate several methods that can be used for the estimation. We compare our technique (Bayesian Smoothing (BS)) with maximum a priori (MAP) estimation, maximum likelihood (ML) estimation and Laplace smoothing. In sparse principal component analysis we are given noisy observations of a low-rank matrix of dimension @math and seek to reconstruct it under additional sparsity assumptions. In particular, we assume here each of the principal components @math has at most @math non-zero entries. We are particularly interested in the high dimensional regime wherein @math is comparable to, or even much larger than @math . In an influential paper, johnstone2004sparse introduced a simple algorithm that estimates the support of the principal vectors @math by the largest entries in the diagonal of the empirical covariance. This method can be shown to identify the correct support with high probability if @math , and to fail with high probability if @math for two constants @math . Despite a considerable amount of work over the last ten years, no practical algorithm exists with provably better support recovery guarantees. Here we analyze a covariance thresholding algorithm that was recently proposed by KrauthgamerSPCA . On the basis of numerical simulations (for the rank-one case), these authors conjectured that covariance thresholding correctly recover the support with high probability for @math (assuming @math of the same order as @math ). We prove this conjecture, and in fact establish a more general guarantee including higher-rank as well as @math much smaller than @math . Recent lower bounds berthet2013computational, ma2015sum suggest that no polynomial time algorithm can do significantly better. The key technical component of our analysis develops new bounds on the norm of kernel random matrices, in regimes that were not considered before. We consider the CEO problem for non-regular source distributions (such as uniform or truncated Gaussian). A group of agents observe independently corrupted versions of data and transmit coded versions over rate-limited links to a CEO. The CEO then estimates the underlying data based on the received coded observations. Agents are not allowed to convene before transmitting their observations. This formulation is motivated by the practical problem of a firm’s CEO estimating (non-regular) beliefs about a sequence of events, before acting on them. Agents’ observations are modeled as jointly distributed with the underlying data through a given conditional probability density function. We study the asymptotic behavior of the minimum achievable mean squared error distortion at the CEO in the limit when the number of agents @math and the sum rate @math tend to infinity. We establish a @math convergence of the distortion, an intermediate regime of performance between the exponential behavior in discrete CEO problems [Berger, Zhang, and Viswanathan (1996)], and the @math behavior in Gaussian CEO problems [Viswanathan and Berger (1997)]. Achievability is proved by a layered architecture with scalar quantization, distributed entropy coding, and midrange estimation. The converse is proved using the Bayesian Chazan–Zakai–Ziv bound. We study a statistical model for the tensor principal component analysis problem introduced by Montanari and Richard: Given a order- @math tensor @math of the form @math , where @math is a signal-to-noise ratio, @math is a unit vector, and @math is a random noise tensor, the goal is to recover the planted vector @math . For the case that @math has iid standard Gaussian entries, we give an efficient algorithm to recover @math whenever @math , and certify that the recovered vector is close to a maximum likelihood estimator, all with high probability over the random choice of @math . The previous best algorithms with provable guarantees required @math . In the regime @math , natural tensor-unfolding-based spectral relaxations for the underlying optimization problem break down (in the sense that their integrality gap is large). To go beyond this barrier, we use convex relaxations based on the sum-of-squares method. Our recovery algorithm proceeds by rounding a degree- @math sum-of-squares relaxations of the maximum-likelihood-estimation problem for the statistical model. To complement our algorithmic results, we show that degree- @math sum-of-squares relaxations break down for @math , which demonstrates that improving our current guarantees (by more than logarithmic factors) would require new techniques or might even be intractable. Finally, we show how to exploit additional problem structure in order to solve our sum-of-squares relaxations, up to some approximation, very efficiently. Our fastest algorithm runs in nearly-linear time using shifted (matrix) power iteration and has similar guarantees as above. The analysis of this algorithm also confirms a variant of a conjecture of Montanari and Richard about singular vectors of tensor unfoldings. An empirical Bayes approach to the estimation of possibly sparse sequences observed in Gaussian white noise is set out and investigated. The prior considered is a mixture of an atom of probability at zero and a heavy-tailed density y, with the mixing weight chosen by marginal maximum likelihood, in the hope of adapting between sparse and dense sequences. If estimation is then carried out using the posterior median, this is a random thresholding procedure. Other thresholding rules employing the same threshold can also be used. Probability bounds on the threshold chosen by the marginal maximum likelihood approach lead to overall risk bounds over classes of signal sequences of length n, allowing for sparsity of various kinds and degrees. The signal classes considered are nearly black sequences where only a proportion η is allowed to be nonzero, and sequences with normalized p norm bounded by η, for η > 0 and 0 1. Simulations show excellent performance. For appropriately chosen functions y, the method is computationally tractable and software is available. The extension to a modified thresholding method relevant to the estimation of very sparse sequences is also considered. Extracting useful information from high-dimensional data is an important focus of today's statistical research and practice. Penalized loss function minimization has been shown to be effective for this task both theoretically and empirically. With the virtues of both regularization and sparsity, the L 1 -penalized squared error minimization method Lasso has been popular in regression models and beyond. In this paper, we combine different norms including L 1 to form an intelligent penalty in order to add side information to the fitting of a regression or classification model to obtain reasonable estimates. Specifically, we introduce the Composite Absolute Penalties (CAP) family, which allows given grouping and hierarchical relationships between the predictors to be expressed. CAP penalties are built by defining groups and combining the properties of norm penalties at the across-group and within-group levels. Grouped selection occurs for nonoverlapping groups. Hierarchical variable selection is reached by defining groups with particular overlapping patterns. We propose using the BLASSO and cross-validation to compute CAP estimates in general. For a subfamily of CAP estimates involving only the L 1 and L ∞ norms, we introduce the iCAP algorithm to trace the entire regularization path for the grouped selection problem. Within this subfamily, unbiased estimates of the degrees of freedom (df) are derived so that the regularization parameter is selected without cross-validation. CAP is shown to improve on the predictive performance of the LASSO in a series of simulated experiments, including cases with p » n and possibly mis-specified groupings. When the complexity of a model is properly calculated, iCAP is seen to be parsimonious in the experiments. Received 28 May 2002; revised 18 September 2002; accepted 24 September 2002; published 14 February 2003. [1] When an inverse problem is solved to estimate an unknown function such as the hydraulic conductivity in an aquifer or the contamination history at a site, one constraint is that the unknown function is known to be everywhere nonnegative. In this work, we develop a statistically rigorous method for enforcing function nonnegativity in Bayesian inverse problems. The proposed method behaves similarly to a Gaussian process with a linear variogram (i.e., unrestricted Brownian motion) for parameter values significantly greater than zero. The method uses the method of images to define a prior probability density function based on reflected Brownian motion that implicitly enforces nonnegativity. This work focuses on problems where the unknown is a function of a single variable (e.g., time). A Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, specifically, a highly efficient Gibbs sampler, is implemented to generate conditional realizations of the unknown function. The new method is applied to the estimation of the trichloroethylene (TCE) and perchloroethylene (PCE) contamination history in an aquifer at Dover Air Force Base, Delaware, based on concentration profiles obtained from an underlying aquitard. INDEX TERMS: 1831 Hydrology: Groundwater quality; 1869 Hydrology: Stochastic processes; 3260 Mathematical Geophysics: Inverse theory; KEYWORDS: stochastic inverse modeling, contaminant source identification, inference under constraints, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), Gibbs sampling, Bayesian inference We consider a Bayesian approach to variable selection in the presence of high dimensional covariates based on a hierarchical model that places prior distributions on the regression coefficients as well as on the model space. We adopt the well-known spike and slab Gaussian priors with a distinct feature, that is, the prior variances depend on the sample size through which appropriate shrinkage can be achieved. We show the strong selection consistency of the proposed method in the sense that the posterior probability of the true model converges to one even when the number of covariates grows nearly exponentially with the sample size. This is arguably the strongest selection consistency result that has been available in the Bayesian variable selection literature; yet the proposed method can be carried out through posterior sampling with a simple Gibbs sampler. Furthermore, we argue that the proposed method is asymptotically similar to model selection with the @math penalty. We also demonstrate through empirical work the fine performance of the proposed approach relative to some state of the art alternatives. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian MAP estimator for solving the deconvolution problems when the observations are corrupted by Poisson noise. Towards this goal, a proper data fidelity term (log-likelihood) is introduced to reflect the Poisson statistics of the noise. On the other hand, as a prior, the images to restore are assumed to be positive and sparsely represented in a dictionary of waveforms such as wavelets or curvelets. Both analysis and synthesis-type sparsity priors are considered. Piecing together the data fidelity and the prior terms, the deconvolution problem boils down to the minimization of non-smooth convex functionals (for each prior). We establish the well-posedness of each optimization problem, characterize the corresponding minimizers, and solve them by means of proximal splitting algorithms originating from the realm of non-smooth convex optimization theory. Experimental results are conducted to demonstrate the potential applicability of the proposed algorithms to astronomical imaging datasets. These lecture notes highlight the mathematical and computational structure relating to the formulation of, and development of algorithms for, the Bayesian approach to inverse problems in differential equations. This approach is fundamental in the quantification of uncertainty within applications in volving the blending of mathematical models with data. The finite dimensional situation is described first, along with some motivational examples. Then the development of probability measures on separable Banach space is undertaken, using a random series over an infinite set of functions to construct draws; these probability measures are used as priors in the Bayesian approach to inverse problems. Regularity of draws from the priors is studied in the natural Sobolev or Besov spaces implied by the choice of functions in the random series construction, and the Kolmogorov continuity theorem is used to extend regularity considerations to the space of Holder continuous functions. Bayes’ theorem is de rived in this prior setting, and here interpreted as finding conditions under which the posterior is absolutely continuous with respect to the prior, and determining a formula for the Radon-Nikodym derivative in terms of the likelihood of the data. Having established the form of the posterior, we then describe various properties common to it in the infinite dimensional setting. These properties include well-posedness, approximation theory, and the existence of maximum a posteriori estimators. We then describe measure-preserving dynamics, again on the infinite dimensional space, including Markov chain-Monte C arlo and sequential Monte Carlo methods, and measure-preserving reversible stochastic differential equations. By formulating the theory and algorithms on the underlying infinite dimensional space, we obtain a framework suitable for rigorous analysis of the accuracy of reconstructions, of computational complexity, as well as naturally constructing algorithms which perform well under mesh refinement, since they are inherently well-defined in infinite dimensions. This paper considers the inverse problem with observed variables Y = BGX ⊕Z, where BG is the incidence matrix of a graph G, X is the vector of unknown vertex variables with a uniform prior, and Z is a noise vector with Bernoulli(e) i.i.d. entries. All variables and operations are Boolean. This model is motivated by coding, synchronization, and community detection problems. In particular, it corresponds to a stochastic block model or a correlation clustering problem with two communities and censored edges. Without noise, exact recovery of X is possible if and only the graph G is connected, with a sharp threshold at the edge probability log(n) n for Erdős-Renyi random graphs. The first goal of this paper is to determine how the edge probability p needs to scale to allow exact recovery in the presence of noise. Defining the degree (oversampling) rate of the graph by α = np log(n), it is shown that exact recovery is possible if and only if α > 2 (1−2e)+o(1 (1−2e)). In other words, 2 (1−2e) is the information theoretic threshold for exact recovery at lowSNR. In addition, an efficient recovery algorithm based on semidefinite programming is proposed and shown to succeed in the threshold regime up to twice the optimal rate. Full version available in [1]. A statistical approach to a posteriori blockmodeling for graphs is proposed. The model assumes that the vertices of the graph are partitioned into two unknown blocks and that the probability of an edge between two vertices depends only on the blocks to which they belong. Statistical procedures are derived for estimating the probabilities of edges and for predicting the block structure from observations of the edge pattern only. ML estimators can be computed using the EM algorithm, but this strategy is practical only for small graphs. A Bayesian estimator, based on Gibbs sampling, is proposed. This estimator is practical also for large graphs. When ML estimators are used, the block structure can be predicted based on predictive likelihood. When Gibbs sampling is used, the block structure can be predicted from posterior predictive probabilities. A side result is that when the number of vertices tends to infinity while the probabilities remain constant, the block structure can be recovered correctly with probability tending to 1. (Less) We consider the problem of clustering a graph @math into two communities by observing a subset of the vertex correlations. Specifically, we consider the inverse problem with observed variables @math , where @math is the incidence matrix of a graph @math , @math is the vector of unknown vertex variables (with a uniform prior), and @math is a noise vector with Bernoulli @math i.i.d. entries. All variables and operations are Boolean. This model is motivated by coding, synchronization, and community detection problems. In particular, it corresponds to a stochastic block model or a correlation clustering problem with two communities and censored edges. Without noise, exact recovery (up to global flip) of @math is possible if and only the graph @math is connected, with a sharp threshold at the edge probability @math for Erdős-Renyi random graphs. The first goal of this paper is to determine how the edge probability @math needs to scale to allow exact recovery in the presence of noise. Defining the degree rate of the graph by @math , it is shown that exact recovery is possible if and only if @math . In other words, @math is the information theoretic threshold for exact recovery at low-SNR. In addition, an efficient recovery algorithm based on semidefinite programming is proposed and shown to succeed in the threshold regime up to twice the optimal rate. For a deterministic graph @math , defining the degree rate as @math , where @math is the minimum degree of the graph, it is shown that the proposed method achieves the rate @math , where @math is the spectral gap of the graph @math . We investigate the class of computable probability distributions and explore the fundamental limitations of using this class to describe and compute conditional distributions. In addition to proving the existence of noncomputable conditional distributions, and thus ruling out the possibility of generic probabilistic inference algorithms (even inefficient ones), we highlight some positive results showing that posterior inference is possible in the presence of additional structure like exchangeability and noise, both of which are common in Bayesian hierarchical modeling. This theoretical work bears on the development of probabilistic programming languages (which enable the specification of complex probabilistic models) and their implementations (which can be used to perform Bayesian reasoning). The probabilistic programming approach is particularly well suited for defining infinite-dimensional, recursively-defined stochastic processes of the sort used in nonparametric Bayesian statistics. We present a new construction of the Mondrian process as a partition-valued Markov process in continuous time, which can be viewed as placing a distribution on an infinite kd-tree data structure. (Copies available exclusively from MIT Libraries, Rm. 14-0551, Cambridge, MA 02139-4307. Ph. 617-253-5668; Fax 617-253-1690.) This paper studies the problem of estimating the vector input to a sparse linear transformation based on the observation of the output vector through a bank of arbitrary independent channels. The linear transformation is drawn randomly from an ensemble with mild regularity conditions. The central result is a decoupling principle in the large-system limit. That is, the optimal estimation of each individual symbol in the input vector is asymptotically equivalent to estimating the same symbol through a scalar additive Gaussian channel, where the aggregate effect of the interfering symbols is tantamount to a degradation in the signal-to-noise ratio. The degradation is determined from a recursive formula related to the score function of the conditional probability distribution of the noisy channel. A sufficient condition is provided for belief propagation (BP) to asymptotically produce the a posteriori probability distribution of each input symbol given the output. This paper extends the authors' previous decoupling result for Gaussian channels to arbitrary channels, which was based on an earlier work of Montanari and Tse. Moreover, a rigorous justification is provided for the generalization of some results obtained via statical physics methods. We want to deduce, from a sequence of noisy two-dimensional images of a scene of several rigid bodies moving independently in three dimensions, the number of bodies and the grouping of given feature points in the images to the bodies. Prior processing is assumed to have identified features or points common to all frames and the images are assumed to be created by orthographic projection (i.e., perspective effects are minimal). We describe a computationally inexpensive algorithm that can determine which points or features belong to which rigid body using the fact that, with exact observations in orthographic projection, points on a single body lie in a three or less dimensional linear manifold of frame space. If there are enough observations and independent motions, these manifolds can be viewed as a set linearly independent, four or less dimensional subspaces. We show that the row echelon canonical form provides direct information on the grouping of points to these subspaces. Treatment of the noise is the most difficult part of the problem. This paper uses a statistical approach to estimate the grouping of points to subspaces in the presence of noise by computing which partition has the maximum likelihood. The input data is assumed to be contaminated with independent Gaussian noise. The algorithm can base its estimates on a user-supplied standard deviation of the noise, or it can estimate the noise from the data. The algorithm can also be used to estimate the probability of a user-specified partition so that the hypothesis can be combined with others using Bayesian statistics. We propose a probabilistic formulation of joint silhouette extraction and 3D reconstruction given a series of calibrated 2D images. Instead of segmenting each image separately in order to construct a 3D surface consistent with the estimated silhouettes, we compute the most probable 3D shape that gives rise to the observed color information. The probabilistic framework, based on Bayesian inference, enables robust 3D reconstruction by optimally taking into account the contribution of all views. We solve the arising maximum a posteriori shape inference in a globally optimal manner by convex relaxation techniques in a spatially continuous representation. For an interactively provided user input in the form of scribbles specifying foreground and background regions, we build corresponding color distributions as multivariate Gaussians and find a volume occupancy that best fits to this data in a variational sense. Compared to classical methods for silhouette-based multiview reconstruction, the proposed approach does not depend on initialization and enjoys significant resilience to violations of the model assumptions due to background clutter, specular reflections, and camera sensor perturbations. In experiments on several real-world data sets, we show that exploiting a silhouette coherency criterion in a multiview setting allows for dramatic improvements of silhouette quality over independent 2D segmentations without any significant increase of computational efforts. This results in more accurate visual hull estimation, needed by a multitude of image-based modeling approaches. We made use of recent advances in parallel computing with a GPU implementation of the proposed method generating reconstructions on volume grids of more than 20 million voxels in up to 4.41 seconds. Traditional sampling theories consider the problem of reconstructing an unknown signal x from a series of samples. A prevalent assumption which often guarantees recovery from the given measurements is that x lies in a known subspace. Recently, there has been growing interest in nonlinear but structured signal models, in which x lies in a union of subspaces. In this paper, we develop a general framework for robust and efficient recovery of such signals from a given set of samples. More specifically, we treat the case in which x lies in a sum of k subspaces, chosen from a larger set of m possibilities. The samples are modeled as inner products with an arbitrary set of sampling functions. To derive an efficient and robust recovery algorithm, we show that our problem can be formulated as that of recovering a block-sparse vector whose nonzero elements appear in fixed blocks. We then propose a mixed lscr2 lscr1 program for block sparse recovery. Our main result is an equivalence condition under which the proposed convex algorithm is guaranteed to recover the original signal. This result relies on the notion of block restricted isometry property (RIP), which is a generalization of the standard RIP used extensively in the context of compressed sensing. Based on RIP, we also prove stability of our approach in the presence of noise and modeling errors. A special case of our framework is that of recovering multiple measurement vectors (MMV) that share a joint sparsity pattern. Adapting our results to this context leads to new MMV recovery methods as well as equivalence conditions under which the entire set can be determined efficiently. This paper describes a methodology for detecting anomalies from sequentially observed and potentially noisy data. The proposed approach consists of two main elements: 1) filtering, or assigning a belief or likelihood to each successive measurement based upon our ability to predict it from previous noisy observations and 2) hedging, or flagging potential anomalies by comparing the current belief against a time-varying and data-adaptive threshold. The threshold is adjusted based on the available feedback from an end user. Our algorithms, which combine universal prediction with recent work on online convex programming, do not require computing posterior distributions given all current observations and involve simple primal-dual parameter updates. At the heart of the proposed approach lie exponential-family models which can be used in a wide variety of contexts and applications, and which yield methods that achieve sublinear per-round regret against both static and slowly varying product distributions with marginals drawn from the same exponential family. Moreover, the regret against static distributions coincides with the minimax value of the corresponding online strongly convex game. We also prove bounds on the number of mistakes made during the hedging step relative to the best offline choice of the threshold with access to all estimated beliefs and feedback signals. We validate the theory on synthetic data drawn from a time-varying distribution over binary vectors of high dimensionality, as well as on the Enron email dataset. The observations in many applications consist of counts of discrete events, such as photons hitting a dector, which cannot be effectively modeled using an additive bounded or Gaussian noise model, and instead require a Poisson noise model. As a result, accurate reconstruction of a spatially or temporally distributed phenomenon (f) from Poisson data (y) cannot be accomplished by minimizing a conventional l 2 - l 1 objective function. The problem addressed in this paper is the estimation of f from y in an inverse problem setting, where (a) the number of unknowns may potentially be larger than the number of observations and (b) f admits a sparse approximation in some basis. The optimization formulation considered in this paper uses a negative Poisson log-likelihood objective function with nonnegativity constraints (since Poisson intensities are naturally nonnegative). This paper describes computational methods for solving the constrained sparse Poisson inverse problem. In particular, the proposed approach incorporates key ideas of using quadratic separable approximations to the objective function at each iteration and computationally efficient partition-based multiscale estimation methods.