Survival analysis in the presence of multiple possible adverse events, i.e., competing risks, is a pervasive problem in many industries (healthcare, finance, etc.). Since only one event is typically observed, the incidence of an event of interest is often obscured by other related competing events. This nonidentifiability, or inability to estimate true cause-specific survival curves from empirical data, further complicates competing risk survival analysis. We introduce Siamese Survival Prognosis Network (SSPN), a novel deep learning architecture for estimating personalized risk scores in the presence of competing risks. SSPN circumvents the nonidentifiability problem by avoiding the estimation of cause-specific survival curves and instead determines pairwise concordant time-dependent risks, where longer event times are assigned lower risks. Furthermore, SSPN is able to directly optimize an approximation to the C-discrimination index, rather than relying on well-known metrics which are unable to capture the unique requirements of survival analysis with competing risks.
Previous work on classical survival analysis has demonstrated the advantages of deep learning over statistical methods @cite_26 @cite_1 @cite_8 . Cox proportional hazards model @cite_15 is the baseline statistical model for survival analysis, but is limited since the dependent risk function is the product of a linear covariate function and a time dependent function, which is insufficient for modeling complex non-linear medical data. @cite_1 replaced the linear covariate function with a feed-forward neural network as input for the Cox PH model and demonstrated improved performance. The current literature addresses competing risks based on statistical methods (the Fine Gray model @cite_21 ), classical machine learning (Random Survival Forest @cite_7 @cite_22 ), multi-task learning @cite_4 ) etc., with limited success. These existing competing risk models are challenged by computational scalability issues for datasets with many patients and multiple covariates. To address this challenge, we propose a deep learning architecture for survival analysis with competing risks to optimize the time-dependent discrimination index. This is not trivial and will be elaborated in the next section.
@cite_26 @cite_4 @cite_22 @cite_7 @cite_8 @cite_21 @cite_1 @cite_15
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Medical practitioners use survival models to explore and understand the relationships between patients’ covariates (e.g. clinical and genetic features) and the effectiveness of various treatment options. Standard survival models like the linear Cox proportional hazards model require extensive feature engineering or prior medical knowledge to model treatment interaction at an individual level. While nonlinear survival methods, such as neural networks and survival forests, can inherently model these high-level interaction terms, they have yet to be shown as effective treatment recommender systems. We introduce DeepSurv, a Cox proportional hazards deep neural network and state-of-the-art survival method for modeling interactions between a patient’s covariates and treatment effectiveness in order to provide personalized treatment recommendations. We perform a number of experiments training DeepSurv on simulated and real survival data. We demonstrate that DeepSurv performs as well as or better than other state-of-the-art survival models and validate that DeepSurv successfully models increasingly complex relationships between a patient’s covariates and their risk of failure. We then show how DeepSurv models the relationship between a patient’s features and effectiveness of different treatment options to show how DeepSurv can be used to provide individual treatment recommendations. Finally, we train DeepSurv on real clinical studies to demonstrate how it’s personalized treatment recommendations would increase the survival time of a set of patients. The predictive and modeling capabilities of DeepSurv will enable medical researchers to use deep neural networks as a tool in their exploration, understanding, and prediction of the effects of a patient’s characteristics on their risk of failure. Previous research has shown that neural networks can model survival data in situations in which some patients' death times are unknown, e.g. right-censored. However, neural networks have rarely been shown to outperform their linear counterparts such as the Cox proportional hazards model. In this paper, we run simulated experiments and use real survival data to build upon the risk-regression architecture proposed by Faraggi and Simon. We demonstrate that our model, DeepSurv, not only works as well as other survival models but actually outperforms in predictive ability on survival data with linear and nonlinear risk functions. We then show that the neural network can also serve as a recommender system by including a categorical variable representing a treatment group. This can be used to provide personalized treatment recommendations based on an individual's calculated risk. We provide an open source Python module that implements these methods in order to advance research on deep learning and survival analysis. An accurate model of patient-specific kidney graft survival distributions can help to improve shared-decision making in the treatment and care of patients. In this paper, we propose a deep learning method that directly models the survival function instead of estimating the hazard function to predict survival times for graft patients based on the principle of multi-task learning. By learning to jointly predict the time of the event, and its rank in the cox partial log likelihood framework, our deep learning approach outperforms, in terms of survival time prediction quality and concordance index, other common methods for survival analysis, including the Cox Proportional Hazards model and a network trained on the cox partial log-likelihood. Abstract Visual tracking algorithms based on structured output support vector machine (SOSVM) have demonstrated excellent performance. However, sampling methods and optimization strategies of SOSVM undesirably increase the computational overloads, which hinder real-time application of these algorithms. Moreover, due to the lack of high-dimensional features and dense training samples, SOSVM-based algorithms are unstable to deal with various challenging scenarios, such as occlusions and scale variations. Recently, visual tracking algorithms based on discriminative correlation filters (DCF), especially the combination of DCF and features from deep convolutional neural networks (CNN), have been successfully applied to visual tracking, and attains surprisingly good performance on recent benchmarks. The success is mainly attributed to two aspects: the circular correlation properties of DCF and the powerful representation capabilities of CNN features. Nevertheless, compared with SOSVM, DCF-based algorithms are restricted to simple ridge regression which has a weaker discriminative ability. In this paper, a novel circular and structural operator tracker (CSOT) is proposed for high performance visual tracking, it not only possesses the powerful discriminative capability of SOSVM but also efficiently inherits the superior computational efficiency of DCF. Based on the proposed circular and structural operators, a set of primal confidence score maps can be obtained by circular correlating feature maps with their corresponding structural correlation filters. Furthermore, an implicit interpolation is applied to convert the multi-resolution feature maps to the continuous domain and make all primal confidence score maps have the same spatial resolution. Then, we exploit an efficient ensemble post-processor based on relative entropy, which can coalesce primal confidence score maps and create an optimal confidence score map for more accurate localization. The target is localized on the peak of the optimal confidence score map. Besides, we introduce a collaborative optimization strategy to update circular and structural operators by iteratively training structural correlation filters, which significantly reduces computational complexity and improves robustness. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance in mean AUC scores of 71.5 and 69.4 on the OTB2013 and OTB2015 benchmarks respectively, and obtains a third-best expected average overlap (EAO) score of 29.8 on the VOT2017 benchmark. We present an adversarial domain adaptation based deep learning approach for automatic tumor segmentation from T2-weighted MRI. Our approach is composed of two steps: (i) a tumor-aware unsupervised cross-domain adaptation (CT to MRI), followed by (ii) semi-supervised tumor segmentation using Unet trained with synthesized and limited number of original MRIs. We introduced a novel target specific loss, called tumor-aware loss, for unsupervised cross-domain adaptation that helps to preserve tumors on synthesized MRIs produced from CT images. In comparison, state-of-the art adversarial networks trained without our tumor-aware loss produced MRIs with ill-preserved or missing tumors. All networks were trained using labeled CT images from 377 patients with non-small cell lung cancer obtained from the Cancer Imaging Archive and unlabeled T2w MRIs from a completely unrelated cohort of 6 patients with pre-treatment and 36 on-treatment scans. Next, we combined 6 labeled pre-treatment MRI scans with the synthesized MRIs to boost tumor segmentation accuracy through semi-supervised learning. Semi-supervised training of cycle-GAN produced a segmentation accuracy of 0.66 computed using Dice Score Coefficient (DSC). Our method trained with only synthesized MRIs produced an accuracy of 0.74 while the same method trained in semi-supervised setting produced the best accuracy of 0.80 on test. Our results show that tumor-aware adversarial domain adaptation helps to achieve reasonably accurate cancer segmentation from limited MRI data by leveraging large CT datasets. We propose a novel method called deep convolutional decision jungle (CDJ) and its learning algorithm for image classification. The CDJ maintains the structure of standard convolutional neural networks (CNNs), i.e. multiple layers of multiple response maps fully connected. Each response map-or node-in both the convolutional and fully-connected layers selectively respond to class labels s.t. each data sample travels via a specific soft route of those activated nodes. The proposed method CDJ automatically learns features, whereas decision forests and jungles require pre-defined feature sets. Compared to CNNs, the method embeds the benefits of using data-dependent discriminative functions, which better handles multi-modal heterogeneous data; further,the method offers more diverse sparse network responses, which in turn can be used for cost-effective learning classification. The network is learnt by combining conventional softmax and proposed entropy losses in each layer. The entropy loss,as used in decision tree growing, measures the purity of data activation according to the class label distribution. The back-propagation rule for the proposed loss function is derived from stochastic gradient descent (SGD) optimization of CNNs. We show that our proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art methods on three public image classification benchmarks and one face verification dataset. We also demonstrate the use of auxiliary data labels, when available, which helps our method to learn more discriminative routing and representations and leads to improved classification. Abstract Several competing human behavior models have been proposed to model boundedly rational adversaries in repeated Stackelberg Security Games (SSG). However, these existing models fail to address three main issues which are detrimental to defender performance. First, while they attempt to learn adversary behavior models from adversaries' past actions (“attacks on targets”), they fail to take into account adversaries' future adaptation based on successes or failures of these past actions. Second, existing algorithms fail to learn a reliable model of the adversary unless there exists sufficient data collected by exposing enough of the attack surface – a situation that often arises in initial rounds of the repeated SSG. Third, current leading models have failed to include probability weighting functions, even though it is well known that human beings' weighting of probability is typically nonlinear. To address these limitations of existing models, this article provides three main contributions. Our first contribution is a new human behavior model, SHARP, which mitigates these three limitations as follows: (i) SHARP reasons based on success or failure of the adversary's past actions on exposed portions of the attack surface to model adversary adaptivity; (ii) SHARP reasons about similarity between exposed and unexposed areas of the attack surface, and also incorporates a discounting parameter to mitigate adversary's lack of exposure to enough of the attack surface; and (iii) SHARP integrates a non-linear probability weighting function to capture the adversary's true weighting of probability. Our second contribution is a first “repeated measures study” – at least in the context of SSGs – of competing human behavior models. This study, where each experiment lasted a period of multiple weeks with individual sets of human subjects on the Amazon Mechanical Turk platform, illustrates the strengths and weaknesses of different models and shows the advantages of SHARP. Our third major contribution is to demonstrate SHARP's superiority by conducting real-world human subjects experiments at the Bukit Barisan Seletan National Park in Indonesia against wildlife security experts. Time-to-event outcomes based data can be modelled using survival regression methods which can predict these outcomes in different censored data applications in diverse fields such as engineering, economics and healthcare. Predictive models are built by inferring from the censored variable in time-to-event data, which differentiates them from other regression methods. Censoring is represented as a binary indicator variable and machine learning methods have been tuned to account for the censored attribute. Active learning from censored data using survival regression methods can make the model query a domain expert for the time-to-event label of the sampled instances. This offers higher advantages in the healthcare domain where a domain expert can interactively refine the model with his feedback. With this motivation, we address this problem by providing an active learning based survival model which uses a novel model discriminative gradient based sampling scheme. We evaluate this framework on electronic health records (EHR), publicly available survival and synthetic censored datasets of varying diversity. Experimental evaluation against state of the art survival regression methods indicates the higher discriminative ability of the proposed approach. We also present the sampling results for the proposed approach in an active learning setting which indicate better learning rates in comparison to other sampling strategies. This thesis investigates risk-sensitive sequential decision-making problems in an uncertain environment. We rst introduce the axiomatic concept of valuation functions that generalize known concepts of risk measures in mathematical nance to cover most of the existing risk related models in various elds, in particular, behavioral economics and cognitive neuroscience. By applying this concept to Markov processes, we construct valuation maps and develop thereby a uni ed framework for incorporating risk into Markov decision processes on general spaces. Within the framework, we study mainly two types of in nite-horizon risk-sensitive criteria, discounted and average valuations, and solve the associated optimization problems by value iteration. For the discounted case, we propose a new discount scheme, which is di erent from the conventional form but consistent with existing literature, while for the average criterion, we state Lyapunov-type stability conditions that generalize known conditions for Markov chains to ensure the existence of solutions to the optimality equation and a geometric convergence rate for the value iteration. Applying a set of valuation functions, called utility-based shortfall, we derive a family of model-free risk-sensitive reinforcement learning algorithms for solving the optimization problems corresponding to risk-sensitive valuations. In addition, we nd that when appropriate utility functions are chosen, agents’ behaviors express key features of human behavior as predicted by prospect theory, for example, di erent risk preferences for gains and losses, as well as the shape of subjective probability curves. As a proof of principle for the applicability of the new algorithms, we apply them to two tasks, 1) to quantify human behavior in a sequential investment task and 2) to perform risk control in simulated algorithmic trading of stocks. In the rst task, the risk-sensitive variant provides a signi cantly better t to the behavioral data and it leads to an interpretation of the subject’s responses which is indeed consistent with prospect theory. The analysis of simultaneously measured fMRI signals show a signi cant correlation of the risk-sensitive temporal di erence error with BOLD signal change in the ventral striatum. In the second task, our algorithm outperforms the risk-neutral reinforcement learning algorithm by keeping the trading cost at a substantially low level at the spot when the 2010 Flash Crash happened, and signi cantly reducing the risk over the whole test period. Classical regression methods treat covariates as a vector and estimate a corresponding vector of regression coefficients. Modern applications in medical imaging generate covariates of more complex form such as multidimensional arrays (tensors). Traditional statistical and computational methods are proving insufficient for analysis of these high-throughput data due to their ultrahigh dimensionality as well as complex structure. In this article, we propose a new family of tensor regression models that efficiently exploit the special structure of tensor covariates. Under this framework, ultrahigh dimensionality is reduced to a manageable level, resulting in efficient estimation and prediction. A fast and highly scalable estimation algorithm is proposed for maximum likelihood estimation and its associated asymptotic properties are studied. Effectiveness of the new methods is demonstrated on both synthetic and real MRI imaging data. Supplementary materials for this article are available online. Flexible modelling in survival analysis can be useful both for exploratory and predictive purposes. Feed forward neural networks were recently considered for flexible non-linear modelling of censored survival data through the generalization of both discrete and continuous time models. We show that by treating the time interval as an input variable in a standard feed forward network with logistic activation and entropy error function, it is possible to estimate smoothed discrete hazards as conditional probabilities of failure. We considered an easily implementable approach with a fast selection criteria of the best configurations. Examples on data sets from two clinical trials are provided. The proposed artificial neural network (ANN) approach can be applied for the estimation of the functional relationships between covariates and time in survival data to improve model predictivity in the presence of complex prognostic relationships. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. These lecture notes highlight the mathematical and computational structure relating to the formulation of, and development of algorithms for, the Bayesian approach to inverse problems in differential equations. This approach is fundamental in the quantification of uncertainty within applications in volving the blending of mathematical models with data. The finite dimensional situation is described first, along with some motivational examples. Then the development of probability measures on separable Banach space is undertaken, using a random series over an infinite set of functions to construct draws; these probability measures are used as priors in the Bayesian approach to inverse problems. Regularity of draws from the priors is studied in the natural Sobolev or Besov spaces implied by the choice of functions in the random series construction, and the Kolmogorov continuity theorem is used to extend regularity considerations to the space of Holder continuous functions. Bayes’ theorem is de rived in this prior setting, and here interpreted as finding conditions under which the posterior is absolutely continuous with respect to the prior, and determining a formula for the Radon-Nikodym derivative in terms of the likelihood of the data. Having established the form of the posterior, we then describe various properties common to it in the infinite dimensional setting. These properties include well-posedness, approximation theory, and the existence of maximum a posteriori estimators. We then describe measure-preserving dynamics, again on the infinite dimensional space, including Markov chain-Monte C arlo and sequential Monte Carlo methods, and measure-preserving reversible stochastic differential equations. By formulating the theory and algorithms on the underlying infinite dimensional space, we obtain a framework suitable for rigorous analysis of the accuracy of reconstructions, of computational complexity, as well as naturally constructing algorithms which perform well under mesh refinement, since they are inherently well-defined in infinite dimensions. In this paper, we exploit the advantages of tensorial representations and propose several tensor learning models for regression. The model is based on the canonical parallel-factor decomposition of tensors of multiple modes and allows the simultaneous projections of an input tensor to more than one direction along each mode. Two empirical risk functions are studied, namely, the square loss and e-insensitive loss functions. The former leads to higher rank tensor ridge regression (TRR), and the latter leads to higher rank support tensor regression (STR), both formulated using the Frobenius norm for regularization. We also use the group-sparsity norm for regularization, favoring in that way the low rank decomposition of the tensorial weight. In that way, we achieve the automatic selection of the rank during the learning process and obtain the optimal-rank TRR and STR. Experiments conducted for the problems of head-pose, human-age, and 3-D body-pose estimations using real data from publicly available databases, verified not only the superiority of tensors over their vector counterparts but also the efficiency of the proposed algorithms. In spite of the compelling achievements that deep neural networks (DNNs) have made in medical image computing, these deep models often suffer from degraded performance when being applied to new test datasets with domain shift. In this paper, we present a novel unsupervised domain adaptation approach for segmentation tasks by designing semantic-aware generative adversarial networks (GANs). Specifically, we transform the test image into the appearance of source domain, with the semantic structural information being well preserved, which is achieved by imposing a nested adversarial learning in semantic label space. In this way, the segmentation DNN learned from the source domain is able to be directly generalized to the transformed test image, eliminating the need of training a new model for every new target dataset. Our domain adaptation procedure is unsupervised, without using any target domain labels. The adversarial learning of our network is guided by a GAN loss for mapping data distributions, a cycle-consistency loss for retaining pixel-level content, and a semantic-aware loss for enhancing structural information. We validated our method on two different chest X-ray public datasets for left right lung segmentation. Experimental results show that the segmentation performance of our unsupervised approach is highly competitive with the upper bound of supervised transfer learning. This paper considers a sparse signal recovery task in time-varying (time-adaptive) environments. The contribution of the paper to sparsity-aware online learning is threefold; first, a generalized thresholding (GT) operator, which relates to both convex and non-convex penalty functions, is introduced. This operator embodies, in a unified way, the majority of well-known thresholding rules which promote sparsity. Second, a non-convexly constrained, sparsity-promoting, online learning scheme, namely the adaptive projection-based generalized thresholding (APGT), is developed that incorporates the GT operator with a computational complexity that scales linearly to the number of unknowns. Third, the novel family of partially quasi-nonexpansive mappings is introduced as a functional analytic tool for treating the GT operator. By building upon the rich fixed point theory, the previous class of mappings establishes also a link between the GT operator and a union of linear subspaces; a non-convex object which lies at the heart of any sparsity promoting technique, batch or online. Based on this functional analytic framework, a convergence analysis of the APGT is provided. Extensive experiments suggest that the APGT exhibits competitive performance when compared to computationally more demanding alternatives, such as the sparsity-promoting affine projection algorithm (APA)- and recursive least-squares (RLS)-based techniques. Abstract In this paper, we develop a novel formulation for contemporaneous patient risk monitoring by exploiting the emerging data-rich environment in many healthcare applications, where an abundance of longitudinal data that reflect the degeneration of the health condition can be continuously collected. Our objective, and the developed formulation, is fundamentally different from many existing risk score models for different healthcare applications, which mostly focus on predicting the likelihood of a certain outcome at a pre-specified time. Rather, our formulation translates multivariate longitudinal measurements into a contemporaneous health index (CHI) that captures patient condition changes over the course of progression. Another significant feature of our formulation is that, CHI can be estimated with or without label information, different from other risk score models strictly based on supervised learning. To develop this formulation, we focus on the degenerative disease conditions, for which we could utilize the monotonic progression characteristic (either towards disease or recovery) to learn CHI. Such a domain knowledge leads us to a novel learning formulation, and on top of that, we further generalize this formulation with a capacity to incorporate label information if available. We further develop algorithms to mitigate the challenges associated with the nonsmooth convex optimization problem by first identifying its dual reformulation as a constrained smooth optimization problem, and then, using the block coordinate descent algorithm to iteratively solve the optimization with a derived efficient projection at each iteration. Extensive numerical studies are performed on both synthetic datasets and real-world applications on Alzheimer’s disease and Surgical Site Infection, which demonstrate the utility and efficacy of the proposed method on degenerative conditions that include a wide range of applications. Modern health data science applications leverage abundant molecular and electronic health data, providing opportunities for machine learning to build statistical models to support clinical practice. Time-to-event analysis, also called survival analysis, stands as one of the most representative examples of such statistical models. We present a novel deep-network-based approach that leverages adversarial learning to address a key challenge in modern time-to-event modeling: nonparametric estimation of event-time distributions. We also introduce a principled cost function to exploit information from censored events (events that occur subsequent to the observation window). Unlike most time-to-event models, we focus on the estimation of time-to-event distributions, rather than time ordering. We validate our model on both benchmark and real datasets, demonstrating that the proposed formulation yields significant performance gains relative to a parametric alternative, which we also propose. Statistical inference and information processing of high-dimensional data often require an efficient and accurate estimation of their second-order statistics. With rapidly changing data, limited processing power and storage at the acquisition devices, it is desirable to extract the covariance structure from a single pass over the data and a small number of stored measurements. In this paper, we explore a quadratic (or rank-one) measurement model which imposes minimal memory requirements and low computational complexity during the sampling process, and is shown to be optimal in preserving various low-dimensional covariance structures. Specifically, four popular structural assumptions of covariance matrices, namely, low rank, Toeplitz low rank, sparsity, jointly rank-one and sparse structure, are investigated, while recovery is achieved via convex relaxation paradigms for the respective structure. The proposed quadratic sampling framework has a variety of potential applications, including streaming data processing, high-frequency wireless communication, phase space tomography and phase retrieval in optics, and noncoherent subspace detection. Our method admits universally accurate covariance estimation in the absence of noise, as soon as the number of measurements exceeds the information theoretic limits. We also demonstrate the robustness of this approach against noise and imperfect structural assumptions. Our analysis is established upon a novel notion called the mixed-norm restricted isometry property (RIP- @math ), as well as the conventional RIP- @math for near-isotropic and bounded measurements. In addition, our results improve upon the best-known phase retrieval (including both dense and sparse signals) guarantees using PhaseLift with a significantly simpler approach. The main contribution of this paper is a simple semi-supervised pipeline that only uses the original training set without collecting extra data. It is challenging in 1) how to obtain more training data only from the training set and 2) how to use the newly generated data. In this work, the generative adversarial network (GAN) is used to generate unlabeled samples. We propose the label smoothing regularization for outliers (LSRO). This method assigns a uniform label distribution to the unlabeled images, which regularizes the supervised model and improves the baseline. We verify the proposed method on a practical problem: person re-identification (re-ID). This task aims to retrieve a query person from other cameras. We adopt the deep convolutional generative adversarial network (DCGAN) for sample generation, and a baseline convolutional neural network (CNN) for representation learning. Experiments show that adding the GAN-generated data effectively improves the discriminative ability of learned CNN embeddings. On three large-scale datasets, Market-1501, CUHK03 and DukeMTMC-reID, we obtain +4.37 , +1.6 and +2.46 improvement in rank-1 precision over the baseline CNN, respectively. We additionally apply the proposed method to fine-grained bird recognition and achieve a +0.6 improvement over a strong baseline. The code is available at this https URL For survival, a living agent (e.g., human in Fig. 1(a)) must have the ability to assess risk (1) by temporally anticipating accidents before they occur (Fig. 1(b)), and (2) by spatially localizing risky regions (Fig. 1(c)) in the environment to move away from threats. In this paper, we take an agent-centric approach to study the accident anticipation and risky region localization tasks. We propose a novel soft-attention Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) which explicitly models both spatial and appearance-wise non-linear interaction between the agent triggering the event and another agent or static-region involved. In order to test our proposed method, we introduce the Epic Fail (EF) dataset consisting of 3000 viral videos capturing various accidents. In the experiments, we evaluate the risk assessment accuracy both in the temporal domain (accident anticipation) and spatial domain (risky region localization) on our EF dataset and the Street Accident (SA) dataset. Our method consistently outperforms other baselines on both datasets.