We develop a worst-case analysis of aggregation of classifier ensembles for binary classification. The task of predicting to minimize error is formulated as a game played over a given set of unlabeled data (a transductive setting), where prior label information is encoded as constraints on the game. The minimax solution of this game identifies cases where a weighted combination of the classifiers can perform significantly better than any single classifier.
Our emphasis on the benefit of considering global effects (our transductive setting) even when data are i.i.d. is in the spirit of the idea of shrinkage, well known in statistical literature since at least the James-Stein estimator ( @cite_8 ).
@cite_8
2124335859 2404992943 2013122247 2950541101
Research on universal and minimax wavelet shrinkage and thresholding methods has demonstrated near-ideal estimation performance in various asymptotic frameworks. However, image processing practice has shown that universal thresholding methods are outperformed by simple Bayesian estimators assuming independent wavelet coefficients and heavy-tailed priors such as generalized Gaussian distributions (GGDs). In this paper, we investigate various connections between shrinkage methods and maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation using such priors. In particular, we state a simple condition under which MAP estimates are sparse. We also introduce a new family of complexity priors based upon Rissanen's universal prior on integers. One particular estimator in this class outperforms conventional estimators based on earlier applications of the minimum description length (MDL) principle. We develop analytical expressions for the shrinkage rules implied by GGD and complexity priors. This allows us to show the equivalence between universal hard thresholding, MAP estimation using a very heavy-tailed GGD, and MDL estimation using one of the new complexity priors. Theoretical analysis supported by numerous practical experiments shows the robustness of some of these estimates against mis-specifications of the prior-a basic concern in image processing applications. We consider the problem of estimating a low-rank signal matrix from noisy measurements under the assumption that the distribution of the data matrix belongs to an exponential family. In this setting, we derive generalized Stein's unbiased risk estimation (SURE) formulas that hold for any spectral estimators which shrink or threshold the singular values of the data matrix. This leads to new data-driven spectral estimators, whose optimality is discussed using tools from random matrix theory and through numerical experiments. Under the spiked population model and in the asymptotic setting where the dimensions of the data matrix are let going to infinity, some theoretical properties of our approach are compared to recent results on asymptotically optimal shrinking rules for Gaussian noise. It also leads to new procedures for singular values shrinkage in finite-dimensional matrix denoising for Gamma-distributed and Poisson-distributed measurements. Many statistical applications require an estimate of a covariance matrix and or its inverse. When the matrix dimension is large compared to the sample size, which happens frequently, the sample covariance matrix is known to perform poorly and may suffer from ill-conditioning. There already exists an extensive literature concerning improved estimators in such situations. In the absence of further knowledge about the structure of the true covariance matrix, the most successful approach so far, arguably, has been shrinkage estimation. Shrinking the sample covariance matrix to a multiple of the identity, by taking a weighted average of the two, turns out to be equivalent to linearly shrinking the sample eigenvalues to their grand mean, while retaining the sample eigenvectors. Our paper extends this approach by considering nonlinear transformations of the sample eigenvalues. We show how to construct an estimator that is asymptotically equivalent to an oracle estimator suggested in previous work. As demonstrated in extensive Monte Carlo simulations, the resulting bona fide estimator can result in sizeable improvements over the sample covariance matrix and also over linear shrinkage. A great deal of effort has been devoted to reducing the risk of spurious scientific discoveries, from the use of sophisticated validation techniques, to deep statistical methods for controlling the false discovery rate in multiple hypothesis testing. However, there is a fundamental disconnect between the theoretical results and the practice of data analysis: the theory of statistical inference assumes a fixed collection of hypotheses to be tested, or learning algorithms to be applied, selected non-adaptively before the data are gathered, whereas in practice data is shared and reused with hypotheses and new analyses being generated on the basis of data exploration and the outcomes of previous analyses. In this work we initiate a principled study of how to guarantee the validity of statistical inference in adaptive data analysis. As an instance of this problem, we propose and investigate the question of estimating the expectations of @math adaptively chosen functions on an unknown distribution given @math random samples. We show that, surprisingly, there is a way to estimate an exponential in @math number of expectations accurately even if the functions are chosen adaptively. This gives an exponential improvement over standard empirical estimators that are limited to a linear number of estimates. Our result follows from a general technique that counter-intuitively involves actively perturbing and coordinating the estimates, using techniques developed for privacy preservation. We give additional applications of this technique to our question.