We show that in an equity market model with Knightian uncertainty regarding the relative risk and covariance structure of its assets, the arbitrage function -- defined as the reciprocal of the highest return on investment that can be achieved relative to the market using nonanticipative strategies, and under any admissible market model configuration -- is a viscosity solution of an associated Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation under appropriate boundedness, continuity and Markovian assumptions on the uncertainty structure. This result generalizes that of Fernholz and Karatzas (2011), who characterized this arbitrage function as a classical solution of a Cauchy problem for this HJB equation under much stronger conditions than those needed here.
For a model with no uncertainty and with local volatility matrix @math and relative risk vector @math at time @math , the viscosity characterization was obtained in [Proposition 4.5] BHS but with additional local condition on @math and @math . This (local) condition is also a typical assumption in previous literature on stochastic control and dynamic programming, e.g., @cite_15 , @cite_17 and @cite_28 (it is even assumed in @cite_9 that @math and @math are continuous and twice differentiable in @math ).
@cite_28 @cite_9 @cite_15 @cite_17
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We prove a weak version of the dynamic programming principle for standard stochastic control problems and mixed control-stopping problems, which avoids the technical difficulties related to the measurable selection argument. In the Markov case, our result is tailor-made for the derivation of the dynamic programming equation in the sense of viscosity solutions. Continuous-time stochastic volatility models are becoming an increasingly popular way to describe moderate and high-frequency financial data. Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (2001a) proposed a class of models where the volatility behaves according to an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck (OU) process, driven by a positive Levy process without Gaussian component. These models introduce discontinuities, or jumps, into the volatility process. They also consider superpositions of such processes and we extend that to the inclusion of a jump component in the returns. In addition, we allow for leverage effects and we introduce separate risk pricing for the volatility components. We design and implement practically relevant inference methods for such models, within the Bayesian paradigm. The algorithm is based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods and we use a series representation of Levy processes. MCMC methods for such models are complicated by the fact that parameter changes will often induce a change in the distribution of the representation of the process and the associated problem of overconditioning. We avoid this problem by dependent thinning methods. An application to stock price data shows the models perform very well, even in the face of data with rapid changes, especially if a superposition of processes with different risk premiums and a leverage effect is used. These lecture notes highlight the mathematical and computational structure relating to the formulation of, and development of algorithms for, the Bayesian approach to inverse problems in differential equations. This approach is fundamental in the quantification of uncertainty within applications in volving the blending of mathematical models with data. The finite dimensional situation is described first, along with some motivational examples. Then the development of probability measures on separable Banach space is undertaken, using a random series over an infinite set of functions to construct draws; these probability measures are used as priors in the Bayesian approach to inverse problems. Regularity of draws from the priors is studied in the natural Sobolev or Besov spaces implied by the choice of functions in the random series construction, and the Kolmogorov continuity theorem is used to extend regularity considerations to the space of Holder continuous functions. Bayes’ theorem is de rived in this prior setting, and here interpreted as finding conditions under which the posterior is absolutely continuous with respect to the prior, and determining a formula for the Radon-Nikodym derivative in terms of the likelihood of the data. Having established the form of the posterior, we then describe various properties common to it in the infinite dimensional setting. These properties include well-posedness, approximation theory, and the existence of maximum a posteriori estimators. We then describe measure-preserving dynamics, again on the infinite dimensional space, including Markov chain-Monte C arlo and sequential Monte Carlo methods, and measure-preserving reversible stochastic differential equations. By formulating the theory and algorithms on the underlying infinite dimensional space, we obtain a framework suitable for rigorous analysis of the accuracy of reconstructions, of computational complexity, as well as naturally constructing algorithms which perform well under mesh refinement, since they are inherently well-defined in infinite dimensions. This paper discusses practical Bayesian estimation of stochastic volatility models based on OU processes with marginal Gamma laws. Estimation is based on a parameterization which is derived from the Rosinski representation, and has the advantage of being a non-centered parameterization. The parameterization is based on a marked point process, living on the positive real line, with uniformly distributed marks. We define a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) scheme which enables multiple updates of the latent point process, and generalizes single updating algorithm used earlier. At each MCMC draw more than one point is added or deleted from the latent point process. This is particularly useful for high intensity processes. Furthermore, the article deals with superposition models, where it discuss how the identifiability problem inherent in the superposition model may be avoided by the use of a Markov prior. Finally, applications to simulated data as well as exchange rate data are discussed.