In traditional models for word-of-mouth recommendations and viral marketing, the objective function has generally been based on reaching as many people as possible. However, a number of studies have shown that the indiscriminate spread of a product by word-of-mouth can result in overexposure, reaching people who evaluate it negatively. This can lead to an effect in which the over-promotion of a product can produce negative reputational effects, by reaching a part of the audience that is not receptive to it. How should one make use of social influence when there is a risk of overexposure? In this paper, we develop and analyze a theoretical model for this process; we show how it captures a number of the qualitative phenomena associated with overexposure, and for the main formulation of our model, we provide a polynomial-time algorithm to find the optimal marketing strategy. We also present simulations of the model on real network topologies, quantifying the extent to which our optimal strategies outperform natural baselines
As noted in the introduction, our work --- through its focus on selecting a seed set of nodes with which to start a cascade --- follows the motivation underlying the line of theoretical work on influence maximization @cite_18 @cite_27 @cite_15 . There has been some theoretical work showing the counter-intuitive outcome where increased effort results in a less successful spread. An example is @cite_0 , where they show that due to the separation of the infection and viral stage, there are cases where an increased effort can result in a lower rate of spread. A related line of work has made use of rich datasets on digital friend-to-friend recommendations on e-commerce sites to analyze the flow of product recommendations through an underlying social network @cite_19 . Further work has experimentally explored influence strategies, with individuals either immediately broadcasting their product adoption to their social network, or selecting individuals to recommend the product to @cite_20 .
@cite_18 @cite_0 @cite_19 @cite_27 @cite_15 @cite_20
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We study the problem of maximizing the expected spread of an innovation or behavior within a social network, in the presence of “word-of-mouth” referral. Our work builds on the observation that individuals’ decisions to purchase a product or adopt an innovation are strongly influenced by recommendations from their friends and acquaintances. Understanding and leveraging this influence may thus lead to a much larger spread of the innovation than the traditional view of marketing to individuals in isolation. In this paper, we define a natural and general model of influence propagation that we term the decreasing cascade model, generalizing models used in the sociology and economics communities. In this model, as in related ones, a behavior spreads in a cascading fashion according to a probabilistic rule, beginning with a set of initially “active” nodes. We study the target set selection problem: we wish to choose a set of individuals to target for initial activation, such that the cascade beginning with this active set is as large as possible in expectation. We show that in the decreasing cascade model, a natural greedy algorithm is a 1-1 e-e approximation for selecting a target set of size k. Many studies in the field of information spread through social networks focus on the detection of influencers. The spread dynamics in most of these studies assumes these influencers are first selected and "infected" with a message, and then this message spreads through the networks by a viral process. The following work presents some difficulties with this separation between the infection stage and the viral stage, and provides a case where an increased effort spent on the spread of an idea results in lower final rates of spread. Such results can be prevented by the Scheduling Seeding approach. This approach gradually plans the timing of infection for each particular node as the viral process progresses. It outperforms the initial seeding approach, and prevents the occurrence of the counter-intuitive (and unwanted) results where a greater effort results in a less successful spread. A simple but effective heuristics to detect what node to seed and where is provided. Social networks are commonly used for marketing purposes. For example, free samples of a product can be given to a few influential social network users (or seed nodes), with the hope that they will convince their friends to buy it. One way to formalize this objective is through the problem of influence maximization (or IM), whose goal is to find the best seed nodes to activate under a fixed budget, so that the number of people who get influenced in the end is maximized. Solutions to IM rely on the influence probability that a user influences another one. However, this probability information may be unavailable or incomplete. In this paper, we study IM in the absence of complete information on influence probability. We call this problem Online Influence Maximization (OIM), since we learn influence probabilities at the same time we run influence campaigns. To solve OIM, we propose a multiple-trial approach, where (1) some seed nodes are selected based on existing influence information; (2) an influence campaign is started with these seed nodes; and (3) user feedback is used to update influence information. We adopt Explore-Exploit strategies, which can select seed nodes using either the current influence probability estimation (exploit), or the confidence bound on the estimation (explore). Any existing IM algorithm can be used in this framework. We also develop an incremental algorithm that can significantly reduce the overhead of handling user feedback information. Our experiments show that our solution is more effective than traditional IM methods on the partial information. The emergence and wide-spread use of online social networks has led to a dramatic increase on the availability of social activity data. Importantly, this data can be exploited to investigate, at a microscopic level, some of the problems that have captured the attention of economists, marketers and sociologists for decades, such as, e.g., product adoption, usage and competition. In this paper, we propose a continuous-time probabilistic model, based on temporal point processes, for the adoption and frequency of use of competing products, where the frequency of use of one product can be modulated by those of others. This model allows us to efficiently simulate the adoption and recurrent usages of competing products, and generate traces in which we can easily recognize the effect of social influence, recency and competition. We then develop an inference method to efficiently fit the model parameters by solving a convex program. The problem decouples into a collection of smaller subproblems, thus scaling easily to networks with hundred of thousands of nodes. We validate our model over synthetic and real diffusion data gathered from Twitter, and show that the proposed model does not only provides a good fit to the data and more accurate predictions than alternatives but also provides interpretable model parameters, which allow us to gain insights into some of the factors driving product adoption and frequency of use.