In this paper, we deal with the uncertainty of bidding for display advertising. Similar to the financial market trading, real-time bidding (RTB) based display advertising employs an auction mechanism to automate the impression level media buying; and running a campaign is no different than an investment of acquiring new customers in return for obtaining additional converted sales. Thus, how to optimally bid on an ad impression to drive the profit and return-on-investment becomes essential. However, the large randomness of the user behaviors and the cost uncertainty caused by the auction competition may result in a significant risk from the campaign performance estimation. In this paper, we explicitly model the uncertainty of user click-through rate estimation and auction competition to capture the risk. We borrow an idea from finance and derive the value at risk for each ad display opportunity. Our formulation results in two risk-aware bidding strategies that penalize risky ad impressions and focus more on the ones with higher expected return and lower risk. The empirical study on real-world data demonstrates the effectiveness of our proposed risk-aware bidding strategies: yielding profit gains of 15.4 in offline experiments and up to 17.5 in an online A B test on a commercial RTB platform over the widely applied bidding strategies.
Recently, the ideas of risk management has been introduced to information retrieval, such as document ranking in web search @cite_11 @cite_9 and diversification in top-N recommendation @cite_40 @cite_21 , to improve the model robustness or catch the users' satisfaction on uncertainty psychologically. In the area of recommender system, bandits solutions @cite_25 have been proposed to model confidence interval to balance exploration and exploitation in a risk-seeking fashion.
@cite_9 @cite_21 @cite_40 @cite_25 @cite_11
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A large number of online services provide automated recommendations to help users to navigate through a large collection of items. New items (products, videos, songs, advertisements) are suggested on the basis of the user's past history and --when available-- her demographic profile. Recommendations have to satisfy the dual goal of helping the user to explore the space of available items, while allowing the system to probe the user's preferences. We model this trade-off using linearly parametrized multi-armed bandits, propose a policy and prove upper and lower bounds on the cumulative "reward" that coincide up to constants in the data poor (high-dimensional) regime. Prior work on linear bandits has focused on the data rich (low-dimensional) regime and used cumulative "risk" as the figure of merit. For this data rich regime, we provide a simple modification for our policy that achieves near-optimal risk performance under more restrictive assumptions on the geometry of the problem. We test (a variation of) the scheme used for establishing achievability on the Netflix and MovieLens datasets and obtain good agreement with the qualitative predictions of the theory we develop. Queries submitted to a retrieval system are often ambiguous. In such a situation, a sensible strategy is to diversify the ranking of results to be retrieved, in the hope that users will find at least one of these results to be relevant to their information need. In this paper, we introduce xQuAD, a novel framework for search result diversification that builds such a diversified ranking by explicitly accounting for the relationship between documents retrieved for the original query and the possible aspects underlying this query, in the form of sub-queries. We evaluate the effectiveness of xQuAD using a standard TREC collection. The results show that our framework markedly outperforms state-of-the-art diversification approaches under a simulated best-case scenario. Moreover, we show that its effectiveness can be further improved by estimating the relative importance of each identified sub-query. Finally, we show that our framework can still outperform the simulated best-case scenario of the state-of-the-art diversification approaches using sub-queries automatically derived from the baseline document ranking itself. A number of text mining and information extraction projects such as Text Runner and NELL seek to automatically build knowledge bases from the rapidly growing amount of information on the web. In order to scale to the size of the web, these projects often employ ad hoc heuristics to reason about uncertain and contradictory information rather than reasoning jointly about all candidate facts. In this paper, we present a Markov logic-based system for cleaning an extracted knowledge base. This allows a scalable system such as NELL to take advantage of joint probabilistic inference, or, conversely, allows Markov logic to be applied to a web scale problem. Our system uses only the ontological constraints and confidence values of the original system, along with human-labeled data if available. The labeled data can be used to calibrate the confidence scores from the original system or learn the effectiveness of individual extraction patterns. To achieve scalability, we introduce a neighborhood grounding method that only instantiates the part of the network most relevant to the given query. This allows us to partition the knowledge cleaning task into tractable pieces that can be solved individually. In experiments on NELL's knowledge base, we evaluate several variants of our approach and find that they improve both F1 and area under the precision-recall curve. We propose a new unsupervised learning technique for extracting information from large text collections. We model documents as if they were generated by a two-stage stochastic process. Each author is represented by a probability distribution over topics, and each topic is represented as a probability distribution over words for that topic. The words in a multi-author paper are assumed to be the result of a mixture of each authors' topic mixture. The topic-word and author-topic distributions are learned from data in an unsupervised manner using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. We apply the methodology to a large corpus of 160,000 abstracts and 85,000 authors from the well-known CiteSeer digital library, and learn a model with 300 topics. We discuss in detail the interpretation of the results discovered by the system including specific topic and author models, ranking of authors by topic and topics by author, significant trends in the computer science literature between 1990 and 2002, parsing of abstracts by topics and authors and detection of unusual papers by specific authors. An online query interface to the model is also discussed that allows interactive exploration of author-topic models for corpora such as CiteSeer.