The short-term forecasting of real-time locational marginal price (LMP) and network congestion is considered from a system operator perspective. A new probabilistic forecasting technique is proposed based on a multiparametric programming formulation that partitions the uncertainty parameter space into critical regions from which the conditional probability distribution of the real-time LMP congestion is obtained. The proposed method incorporates load generation forecast, time varying operation constraints, and contingency models. By shifting the computation cost associated with multiparametric programs offline, the online computation cost is significantly reduced. An online simulation technique by generating critical regions dynamically is also proposed, which results in several orders of magnitude improvement in the computational cost over standard Monte Carlo methods.
Several techniques have been proposed to approximate the LMP distribution at a future time. In @cite_8 , a probabilistic LMP forecasting approach was proposed based on attaching a Gaussian distribution to a point estimate. The advantage is that the technique can incorporate various point forecasting methods. The disadvantage, on the other hand, is that network effects are not easy to incorporate. The authors of @cite_6 and @cite_11 approximate the probabilistic distribution of LMP using higher order moments and cumulants. These methods are based on representing the probability distribution as an infinite series involving moments or cumulants. In practice, computing or estimating higher order moments and cumulants are very difficult; lower order approximations are necessary.
@cite_11 @cite_6 @cite_8
2010590907 2124895057 2951090971 1987772002
The problem of forecasting the real-time locational marginal price (LMP) by a system operator is considered. A new probabilistic forecasting framework is developed based on a time in-homogeneous Markov chain representation of the realtime LMP calculation. By incorporating real-time measurements and forecasts, the proposed forecasting algorithm generates the posterior probability distribution of future locational marginal prices with forecast horizons of 6–8 hours. Such a short-term forecast provides actionable information for market participants and system operators. A Monte Carlo technique is used to estimate the posterior transition probabilities of the Markov chain, and the real-time LMP forecast is computed by the product of the estimated transition matrices. The proposed forecasting algorithm is tested on the PJM 5-bus system. Simulations show marked improvements over benchmark techniques. In power market studies, the forecast of locational marginal price (LMP) relies on the load forecasting results from the viewpoint of planning. It is well known that short-term load forecasting results always carry certain degree of errors mainly due to the random nature of the load. At the same time, LMP step changes occur at critical load levels (CLLs). Therefore, it is interesting to investigate the impact of load forecasting uncertainty on LMP. With the assumption of a certain probability distribution of the actual load, this paper proposes the concept of probabilistic LMP and formulates the probability mass function of this random variable. The expected value of probabilistic LMP is then derived, as well as the lower and upper bound of its sensitivity. In addition, two useful curves, alignment probability of deterministic LMP versus forecasted load and expected value of probabilistic LMP versus forecasted load, are presented. The first curve is designed to identify the probability that the forecasted price in a deterministic LMP matches the actual price at the forecasted load level. The second curve is demonstrated to be smooth and therefore eliminates the step changes in deterministic LMP forecasting. This helps planners avoid the possible sharp changes during decision-making process. The proposed concept and method are illustrated with a modified PJM five-bus system and the IEEE 118-bus system. We consider the estimation of an i.i.d. random vector observed through a linear transform followed by a componentwise, probabilistic (possibly nonlinear) measurement channel. A novel algorithm, called generalized approximate message passing (GAMP), is presented that provides computationally efficient approximate implementations of max-sum and sum-problem loopy belief propagation for such problems. The algorithm extends earlier approximate message passing methods to incorporate arbitrary distributions on both the input and output of the transform and can be applied to a wide range of problems in nonlinear compressed sensing and learning. Extending an analysis by Bayati and Montanari, we argue that the asymptotic componentwise behavior of the GAMP method under large, i.i.d. Gaussian transforms is described by a simple set of state evolution (SE) equations. From the SE equations, one can predict the asymptotic value of virtually any componentwise performance metric including mean-squared error or detection accuracy. Moreover, the analysis is valid for arbitrary input and output distributions, even when the corresponding optimization problems are non-convex. The results match predictions by Guo and Wang for relaxed belief propagation on large sparse matrices and, in certain instances, also agree with the optimal performance predicted by the replica method. The GAMP methodology thus provides a computationally efficient methodology, applicable to a large class of non-Gaussian estimation problems with precise asymptotic performance guarantees. We consider the estimation of an independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) (possibly non-Gaussian) vector x ∈ Rn from measurements y ∈ Rm obtained by a general cascade model consisting of a known linear transform followed by a probabilistic componentwise (possibly nonlinear) measurement channel. A novel method, called adaptive generalized approximate message passing (adaptive GAMP) is presented. It enables the joint learning of the statistics of the prior and measurement channel along with estimation of the unknown vector x. We prove that, for large i.i.d. Gaussian transform matrices, the asymptotic componentwise behavior of the adaptive GAMP is predicted by a simple set of scalar state evolution equations. In addition, we show that the adaptive GAMP yields asymptotically consistent parameter estimates, when a certain maximum-likelihood estimation can be performed in each step. This implies that the algorithm achieves a reconstruction quality equivalent to the oracle algorithm that knows the correct parameter values. Remarkably, this result applies to essentially arbitrary parametrizations of the unknown distributions, including nonlinear and non-Gaussian ones. The adaptive GAMP methodology thus provides a systematic, general and computationally efficient method applicable to a large range of linear-nonlinear models with provable guarantees.