Proposed methods for prediction interval estimation so far focus on cases where input variables are numerical. In datasets with solely nominal input variables, we observe records with the exact same input @math , but different real valued outputs due to the inherent noise in the system. Existing prediction interval estimation methods do not use representations that can accurately model such inherent noise in the case of nominal inputs. We propose a new prediction interval estimation method tailored for this type of data, which is prevalent in biology and medicine. We call this method Distribution Adaptive Prediction Interval Estimation given Nominal inputs (DAPIEN) and has four main phases. First, we select a distribution function that can best represent the inherent noise of the system for all unique inputs. Then we infer the parameters @math (e.g. @math ) of the selected distribution function for all unique input vectors @math and generate a new corresponding training set using pairs of @math . III). Then, we train a model to predict @math given a new @math . Finally, we calculate the prediction interval for a new sample using the inverse of the cumulative distribution function once the parameters @math is predicted by the trained model. We compared DAPIEN to the commonly used Bootstrap method on three synthetic datasets. Our results show that DAPIEN provides tighter prediction intervals while preserving the requested coverage when compared to Bootstrap. This work can facilitate broader usage of regression methods in medicine and biology where it is necessary to provide tight prediction intervals while preserving coverage when input variables are nominal.
An extensive review for neural network-based prediction intervals is provided in @cite_8 . Next we provide a concise summary of PI assessment measures and also discuss the latest developments in PI prediction methods, some of which have not been reviewed together before.
@cite_8
2132477882 2171666055 2136009263 2530816535
Prediction intervals (PIs) have been proposed in the literature to provide more information by quantifying the level of uncertainty associated to the point forecasts. Traditional methods for construction of neural network (NN) based PIs suffer from restrictive assumptions about data distribution and massive computational loads. In this paper, we propose a new, fast, yet reliable method for the construction of PIs for NN predictions. The proposed lower upper bound estimation (LUBE) method constructs an NN with two outputs for estimating the prediction interval bounds. NN training is achieved through the minimization of a proposed PI-based objective function, which covers both interval width and coverage probability. The method does not require any information about the upper and lower bounds of PIs for training the NN. The simulated annealing method is applied for minimization of the cost function and adjustment of NN parameters. The demonstrated results for 10 benchmark regression case studies clearly show the LUBE method to be capable of generating high-quality PIs in a short time. Also, the quantitative comparison with three traditional techniques for prediction interval construction reveals that the LUBE method is simpler, faster, and more reliable. This paper evaluates the four leading techniques proposed in the literature for construction of prediction intervals (PIs) for neural network point forecasts. The delta, Bayesian, bootstrap, and mean-variance estimation (MVE) methods are reviewed and their performance for generating high-quality PIs is compared. PI-based measures are proposed and applied for the objective and quantitative assessment of each method's performance. A selection of 12 synthetic and real-world case studies is used to examine each method's performance for PI construction. The comparison is performed on the basis of the quality of generated PIs, the repeatability of the results, the computational requirements and the PIs variability with regard to the data uncertainty. The obtained results in this paper indicate that: 1) the delta and Bayesian methods are the best in terms of quality and repeatability, and 2) the MVE and bootstrap methods are the best in terms of low computational load and the width variability of PIs. This paper also introduces the concept of combinations of PIs, and proposes a new method for generating combined PIs using the traditional PIs. Genetic algorithm is applied for adjusting the combiner parameters through minimization of a PI-based cost function subject to two sets of restrictions. It is shown that the quality of PIs produced by the combiners is dramatically better than the quality of PIs obtained from each individual method. Neural networks (NNs) are an effective tool to model nonlinear systems. However, their forecasting performance significantly drops in the presence of process uncertainties and disturbances. NN-based prediction intervals (PIs) offer an alternative solution to appropriately quantify uncertainties and disturbances associated with point forecasts. In this paper, an NN ensemble procedure is proposed to construct quality PIs. A recently developed lower–upper bound estimation method is applied to develop NN-based PIs. Then, constructed PIs from the NN ensemble members are combined using a weighted averaging mechanism. Simulated annealing and a genetic algorithm are used to optimally adjust the weights for the aggregation mechanism. The proposed method is examined for three different case studies. Simulation results reveal that the proposed method improves the average PI quality of individual NNs by 22 , 18 , and 78 for the first, second, and third case studies, respectively. The simulation study also demonstrates that a 3 –4 improvement in the quality of PIs can be achieved using the proposed method compared to the simple averaging aggregation method. In this paper, we present a simple and efficient method for training deep neural networks in a semi-supervised setting where only a small portion of training data is labeled. We introduce self-ensembling, where we form a consensus prediction of the unknown labels using the outputs of the network-in-training on different epochs, and most importantly, under different regularization and input augmentation conditions. This ensemble prediction can be expected to be a better predictor for the unknown labels than the output of the network at the most recent training epoch, and can thus be used as a target for training. Using our method, we set new records for two standard semi-supervised learning benchmarks, reducing the (non-augmented) classification error rate from 18.44 to 7.05 in SVHN with 500 labels and from 18.63 to 16.55 in CIFAR-10 with 4000 labels, and further to 5.12 and 12.16 by enabling the standard augmentations. We additionally obtain a clear improvement in CIFAR-100 classification accuracy by using random images from the Tiny Images dataset as unlabeled extra inputs during training. Finally, we demonstrate good tolerance to incorrect labels.