We present a deep learning framework for probabilistic pixel-wise semantic segmentation, which we term Bayesian SegNet. Semantic segmentation is an important tool for visual scene understanding and a meaningful measure of uncertainty is essential for decision making. Our contribution is a practical system which is able to predict pixel-wise class labels with a measure of model uncertainty. We achieve this by Monte Carlo sampling with dropout at test time to generate a posterior distribution of pixel class labels. In addition, we show that modelling uncertainty improves segmentation performance by 2-3 across a number of state of the art architectures such as SegNet, FCN and Dilation Network, with no additional parametrisation. We also observe a significant improvement in performance for smaller datasets where modelling uncertainty is more effective. We benchmark Bayesian SegNet on the indoor SUN Scene Understanding and outdoor CamVid driving scenes datasets.
We note that the probability distribution from Monte Carlo sampling is significantly different to the obtained from a softmax classifier. The softmax function approximates relative probabilities between the class labels, but not an overall measure of the model's uncertainty @cite_11 . Figure illustrates these differences.
@cite_11
2100002341 2108018401 2138309709 2867167548
We introduce a two-layer undirected graphical model, called a "Replicated Softmax", that can be used to model and automatically extract low-dimensional latent semantic representations from a large unstructured collection of documents. We present efficient learning and inference algorithms for this model, and show how a Monte-Carlo based method, Annealed Importance Sampling, can be used to produce an accurate estimate of the log-probability the model assigns to test data. This allows us to demonstrate that the proposed model is able to generalize much better compared to Latent Dirichlet Allocation in terms of both the log-probability of held-out documents and the retrieval accuracy. In many important machine learning applications, the source distribution used to estimate a probabilistic classifier differs from the target distribution on which the classifier will be used to make predictions. Due to its asymptotic properties, sample reweighted empirical loss minimization is a commonly employed technique to deal with this difference. However, given finite amounts of labeled source data, this technique suffers from significant estimation errors in settings with large sample selection bias. We develop a framework for learning a robust bias-aware (RBA) probabilistic classifier that adapts to different sample selection biases using a minimax estimation formulation. Our approach requires only accurate estimates of statistics under the source distribution and is otherwise as robust as possible to unknown properties of the conditional label distribution, except when explicit generalization assumptions are incorporated. We demonstrate the behavior and effectiveness of our approach on binary classification tasks. SUMMARY A generalization of the sampling method introduced by (1953) is presented along with an exposition of the relevant theory, techniques of application and methods and difficulties of assessing the error in Monte Carlo estimates. Examples of the methods, including the generation of random orthogonal matrices and potential applications of the methods to numerical problems arising in statistics, are discussed. For numerical problems in a large number of dimensions, Monte Carlo methods are often more efficient than conventional numerical methods. However, implementation of the Monte Carlo methods requires sampling from high dimensional probability distributions and this may be very difficult and expensive in analysis and computer time. General methods for sampling from, or estimating expectations with respect to, such distributions are as follows. (i) If possible, factorize the distribution into the product of one-dimensional conditional distributions from which samples may be obtained. (ii) Use importance sampling, which may also be used for variance reduction. That is, in order to evaluate the integral J = X) p(x)dx = Ev(f), where p(x) is a probability density function, instead of obtaining independent samples XI, ..., Xv from p(x) and using the estimate J, = Zf(xi) N, we instead obtain the sample from a distribution with density q(x) and use the estimate J2 = Y f(xj)p(x1) q(xj)N . This may be advantageous if it is easier to sample from q(x) thanp(x), but it is a difficult method to use in a large number of dimensions, since the values of the weights w(xi) = p(x1) q(xj) for reasonable values of N may all be extremely small, or a few may be extremely large. In estimating the probability of an event A, however, these difficulties may not be as serious since the only values of w(x) which are important are those for which x -A. Since the methods proposed by Trotter & Tukey (1956) for the estimation of conditional expectations require the use of importance sampling, the same difficulties may be encountered in their use. (iii) Use a simulation technique; that is, if it is difficult to sample directly from p(x) or if p(x) is unknown, sample from some distribution q(y) and obtain the sample x values as some function of the corresponding y values. If we want samples from the conditional dis Detecting test samples drawn sufficiently far away from the training distribution statistically or adversarially is the fundamental requirement to deploy a good classifier in many real-world machine learning applications. However, deep neural networks with the softmax classifier are known to produce highly overconfident posterior distributions even for such abnormal samples. In this paper, we propose a simple yet effective method for detecting any abnormal samples, which is applicable to any pre-trained softmax neural classifier. We obtain the class conditional Gaussian distributions with respect to (low- and upper-level) features of the deep models under Gaussian discriminant analysis, which result in a confidence score based on the Mahalanobis distance. While most prior methods have been evaluated for detecting either out-of-distribution or adversarial samples, but not both, the proposed method achieves the state-of-art performances for both cases in our experiments. Moreover, we found that our proposed method is more robust in extreme cases, e.g., when the training dataset has noisy labels or small number of samples. Finally, we show that the proposed method enjoys broader usage by applying it to class incremental learning: whenever out-of-distribution samples are detected, our classification rule can incorporate new classes well without further training deep models.