Click-through rate (CTR) is a key signal of relevance for search engine results, both organic and sponsored. CTR of a result has two core components: (a) the probability of examination of a result by a user, and (b) the perceived relevance of the result given that it has been examined by the user. There has been considerable work on user browsing models, to model and analyze both the examination and the relevance components of CTR. In this paper, we propose a novel formulation: a micro-browsing model for how users read result snippets. The snippet text of a result often plays a critical role in the perceived relevance of the result. We study how particular words within a line of snippet can influence user behavior. We validate this new micro-browsing user model by considering the problem of predicting which snippet will yield higher CTR, and show that classification accuracy is dramatically higher with our micro-browsing user model. The key insight in this paper is that varying relatively few words within a snippet, and even their location within a snippet, can have a significant influence on the clickthrough of a snippet.
The Bayesian browsing model (BBM) @cite_21 uses exactly the same browsing model as UBM. However, BBM adopts a Bayesian paradigm for relevance, i.e., BBM considers relevance to be a random variable with a probability distribution, rather than a fixed (but unknown) value to be estimated. In the context of this paper, where we are focused on the user browsing model, UBM and BBM can be considered equivalent.
@cite_21
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Given a quarter of petabyte click log data, how can we estimate the relevance of each URL for a given query? In this paper, we propose the Bayesian Browsing Model (BBM), a new modeling technique with following advantages: (a) it does exact inference; (b) it is single-pass and parallelizable; (c) it is effective. We present two sets of experiments to test model effectiveness and efficiency. On the first set of over 50 million search instances of 1.1 million distinct queries, BBM out-performs the state-of-the-art competitor by 29.2 in log-likelihood while being 57 times faster. On the second click-log set, spanning a quarter of petabyte data, we showcase the scalability of BBM: we implemented it on a commercial MapReduce cluster, and it took only 3 hours to compute the relevance for 1.15 billion distinct query-URL pairs. We introduce a hierarchical Bayesian approach to tackle the challenging problem of size recommendation in e-commerce fashion. Our approach jointly models a size purchased by a customer, and its possible return event: 1. no return, 2. returned too small 3. returned too big. Those events are drawn following a multinomial distribution parameterized on the joint probability of each event, built following a hierarchy combining priors. Such a model allows us to incorporate extended domain expertise and article characteristics as prior knowledge, which in turn makes it possible for the underlying parameters to emerge thanks to sufficient data. Experiments are presented on real (anonymized) data from millions of customers along with a detailed discussion on the efficiency of such an approach within a large scale production system. In many multivariate domains, we are interested in analyzing the dependency structure of the underlying distribution, e.g., whether two variables are in direct interaction. We can represent dependency structures using Bayesian network models. To analyze a given data set, Bayesian model selection attempts to find the most likely (MAP) model, and uses its structure to answer these questions. However, when the amount of available data is modest, there might be many models that have non-negligible posterior. Thus, we want compute the Bayesian posterior of a feature, i.e., the total posterior probability of all models that contain it. In this paper, we propose a new approach for this task. We first show how to efficiently compute a sum over the exponential number of networks that are consistent with a fixed order over network variables. This allows us to compute, for a given order, both the marginal probability of the data and the posterior of a feature. We then use this result as the basis for an algorithm that approximates the Bayesian posterior of a feature. Our approach uses a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, but over orders rather than over network structures. The space of orders is smaller and more regular than the space of structures, and has much a smoother posterior “landscape”. We present empirical results on synthetic and real-life datasets that compare our approach to full model averaging (when possible), to MCMC over network structures, and to a non-Bayesian bootstrap approach. This paper introduces a general Bayesian framework for obtaining sparse solutions to regression and classification tasks utilising models linear in the parameters. Although this framework is fully general, we illustrate our approach with a particular specialisation that we denote the 'relevance vector machine' (RVM), a model of identical functional form to the popular and state-of-the-art 'support vector machine' (SVM). We demonstrate that by exploiting a probabilistic Bayesian learning framework, we can derive accurate prediction models which typically utilise dramatically fewer basis functions than a comparable SVM while offering a number of additional advantages. These include the benefits of probabilistic predictions, automatic estimation of 'nuisance' parameters, and the facility to utilise arbitrary basis functions (e.g. non-'Mercer' kernels). We detail the Bayesian framework and associated learning algorithm for the RVM, and give some illustrative examples of its application along with some comparative benchmarks. We offer some explanation for the exceptional degree of sparsity obtained, and discuss and demonstrate some of the advantageous features, and potential extensions, of Bayesian relevance learning.