Destination prediction is an essential task in a variety of mobile applications. In this paper, we optimize the matrix operation and adapt a semi-lazy framework to improve the prediction accuracy and efficiency of a state-of-the-art approach. To this end, we employ efficient dynamic-programming by devising several data constructs including Efficient Transition Probability and Transition Probabilities with Detours that are capable of pinpointing the minimum amount of computation. We prove that our method achieves one order of cut in both time and space complexity. The experimental results on real-world and synthetic datasets have shown that our solution consistently outperforms its state-of-the-art counterparts in terms of both efficiency (approximately over 100 times faster) and accuracy (above 30 increase).
Krumm and Horvitz @cite_4 incorporated in their approach multiple features including driving efficiency, ground cover, trip times etc. and employed an open-world model to capture the probabilities of users leaving for places which have never been visited in the past. @cite_0 employed a sophisticated context-aware behavior model PROCAB to infer intersection decisions, routes and destinations of drivers. @cite_25 demonstrated the breach of privacy induced by insurance schemes through predicting the destinations by exploiting only the speed data of a vehicle. The aim of our work differs from all the preceding research since we concentrate on destination prediction using only the historical trajectories.
@cite_0 @cite_4 @cite_25
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We describe a method called Predestination that uses a history of a driver's destinations, along with data about driving behaviors, to predict where a driver is going as a trip progresses. Driving behaviors include types of destinations, driving efficiency, and trip times. Beyond considering previously visited destinations, Predestination leverages an open-world modeling methodology that considers the likelihood of users visiting previously unobserved locations based on trends in the data and on the background properties of locations. This allows our algorithm to smoothly transition between “out of the box” with no training data to more fully trained with increasing numbers of observations. Multiple components of the analysis are fused via Bayesian inference to produce a probabilistic map of destinations. Our algorithm was trained and tested on hold-out data drawn from a database of GPS driving data gathered from 169 different subjects who drove 7,335 different trips. We present PROCAB, an efficient method for Probabilistically Reasoning from Observed Context-Aware Behavior. It models the context-dependent utilities and underlying reasons that people take different actions. The model generalizes to unseen situations and scales to incorporate rich contextual information. We train our model using the route preferences of 25 taxi drivers demonstrated in over 100,000 miles of collected data, and demonstrate the performance of our model by inferring: (1) decision at next intersection, (2) route to known destination, and (3) destination given partially traveled route. Location is a key context ingredient and many existing pervasive applications rely on the current locations of their users. However, with the ability to predict the future location and movement behavior of a user, the usability of these applications can be greatly improved. In this paper, we propose an approach to predict both the intended destination and the future route of a person. Rather than predicting the destination and future route separately, we have focused on making prediction in an integrated way by exploiting personal movement data (i.e. trajectories) collected by GPS. Since trajectories contain daily whereabouts information of a person, the proposed approach first detects the significant places where the person may depart from or go to using a clustering-based algorithm called FBM (Forward-Backward Matching), then abstracts the trajectories based on a space partitioning method, and finally extracts movement patterns from the abstracted trajectories using an extended CRPM (Continuous Route Pattern Mining) algorithm. Extracted movement patterns are organized in terms of origin-destination couples. The prediction is made based on a pattern tree built from these movement patterns. With the real personal movement data of 14 participants, we conducted a number of experiments to evaluate the performance of our system. The results show that our approach can achieve approximately 80 and 60 accuracy in destination prediction and 1-step prediction, respectively, and result in an average deviation of approximately 60 m in continuous future route prediction. Finally, based on the proposed approach, we implemented a prototype running on mobile phones, which can extract patterns from a user's historical movement data and predict the destination and future route. This paper presents a generic approach for tactical decision-making under uncertainty in the context of driving. The complexity of this task mainly stems from the fact that rational decision-making in this context must consider several sources of uncertainty: The temporal evolution of situations cannot be predicted without uncertainty because other road users behave stochastically and their goals and plans cannot be measured. Even more important, road users are only able to perceive a tiny part of the current situation with their sensors because measurements are noisy and most of the environment is occluded. In order to anticipate the consequences of decisions a probabilistic approach, considering both forms of uncertainty, is necessary. The authors address this by formulating the task of driving as a continuous Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) that can be automatically optimized for different scenarios. As driving is a continuous-space problem, the belief space is infinite-dimensional. The authors do not use a symbolic representation or discretize the state space a priori because there is no representation of the state space that is optimal for every situation. Instead, they employ a continuous POMDP solver that learns a good representation of the specific situation.