Cascades on social and information networks have been a tremendously popular subject of study in the past decade, and there is a considerable literature on phenomena such as diffusion mechanisms, virality, cascade prediction, and peer network effects. Against the backdrop of this research, a basic question has received comparatively little attention: how desirable are cascades on a social media platform from the point of view of users' While versions of this question have been considered from the perspective of the producers of cascades, any answer to this question must also take into account the effect of cascades on their audience --- the viewers of the cascade who do not directly participate in generating the content that launched it. In this work, we seek to fill this gap by providing a consumer perspective of information cascades. Users on social and information networks play the dual role of producers and consumers, and our work focuses on how users perceive cascades as consumers. Starting from this perspective, we perform an empirical study of the interaction of Twitter users with retweet cascades. We measure how often users observe retweets in their home timeline, and observe a phenomenon that we term the Impressions Paradox: the share of impressions for cascades of size k decays much more slowly than frequency of cascades of size k. Thus, the audience for cascades can be quite large even for rare large cascades. We also measure audience engagement with retweet cascades in comparison to non-retweeted or organic content. Our results show that cascades often rival or exceed organic content in engagement received per impression. This result is perhaps surprising in that consumers didn't opt in to see tweets from these authors. Furthermore, although cascading content is widely popular, one would expect it to eventually reach parts of the audience that may not be interested in the content. Motivated by the tension in these empirical findings, we posit a simple theoretical model that focuses on the effect of cascades on the audience (rather than the cascade producers). Our results on this model highlight the balance between retweeting as a high-quality content selection mechanism and the role of network users in filtering irrelevant content. In particular, the results suggest that together these two effects enable the audience to consume a high quality stream of content in the presence of cascades.
In addition, it has been shown that only a very small fraction of cascades become viral @cite_3 but the ones that do become viral cover a large diverse set of users. In other words, if you are the source of a cascade you have a low chance of creating a viral cascade but, once we switch to the consumer's point of view we observe that a large fraction of a user's timeline is made up of these diffusing pieces of content. Another related theme on this work has been the observation that a small number of elite'' users produce a substantial fraction of original content on Twitter @cite_19 . As with other studies, this one also focused on active cascade participants, and our work is differentiated by the focus on cascade audience.
@cite_19 @cite_3
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Information cascades on social networks, such as retweet cascades on Twitter, have been often viewed as an epidemiological process, with the associated notion of virality to capture popular cascades that spread across the network. The notion of structural virality or average path length has been posited as a measure of global spread. In this paper, we argue that this simple epidemiological view, though analytically compelling, is not the entire story. We first show empirically that the classical SIR diffusion process on the Twitter graph, even with the best possible distribution of infectiousness parameter, cannot explain the nature of observed retweet cascades on Twitter. More specifically, rather than spreading further from the source as the SIR model would predict, many cascades that have several retweets from direct followers, die out quickly beyond that. We show that our empirical observations can be reconciled if we take interests of users and tweets into account. In particular, we consider a model where users have multi-dimensional interests, and connect to other users based on similarity in interests. Tweets are correspondingly labeled with interests, and propagate only in the subgraph of interested users via the SIR process. In this model, interests can be either narrow or broad, with the narrowest interest corresponding to a star graph on the interested users, with the root being the source of the tweet, and the broadest interest spanning the whole graph. We show that if tweets are generated using such a mix of interests, coupled with a varying infectiousness parameter, then we can qualitatively explain our observation that cascades die out much more quickly than is predicted by the SIR model. In the same breath, this model also explains how cascades can have large size, but low "structural virality" or average path length. Cascades of information-sharing are a primary mechanism by which content reaches its audience on social media, and an active line of research has studied how such cascades, which form as content is reshared from person to person, develop and subside. In this paper, we perform a large-scale analysis of cascades on Facebook over significantly longer time scales, and find that a more complex picture emerges, in which many large cascades recur, exhibiting multiple bursts of popularity with periods of quiescence in between. We characterize recurrence by measuring the time elapsed between bursts, their overlap and proximity in the social network, and the diversity in the demographics of individuals participating in each peak. We discover that content virality, as revealed by its initial popularity, is a main driver of recurrence, with the availability of multiple copies of that content helping to spark new bursts. Still, beyond a certain popularity of content, the rate of recurrence drops as cascades start exhausting the population of interested individuals. We reproduce these observed patterns in a simple model of content recurrence simulated on a real social network. Using only characteristics of a cascade's initial burst, we demonstrate strong performance in predicting whether it will recur in the future. Cascades of information-sharing are a primary mechanism by which content reaches its audience on social media, and an active line of research has studied how such cascades, which form as content is reshared from person to person, develop and subside. In this paper, we perform a large-scale analysis of cascades on Facebook over significantly longer time scales, and find that a more complex picture emerges, in which many large cascades recur, exhibiting multiple bursts of popularity with periods of quiescence in between. We characterize recurrence by measuring the time elapsed between bursts, their overlap and proximity in the social network, and the diversity in the demographics of individuals participating in each peak. We discover that content virality, as revealed by its initial popularity, is a main driver of recurrence, with the availability of multiple copies of that content helping to spark new bursts. Still, beyond a certain popularity of content, the rate of recurrence drops as cascades start exhausting the population of interested individuals. We reproduce these observed patterns in a simple model of content recurrence simulated on a real social network. Using only characteristics of a cascade's initial burst, we demonstrate strong performance in predicting whether it will recur in the future. On many social networking web sites such as Facebook and Twitter, resharing or reposting functionality allows users to share others' content with their own friends or followers. As content is reshared from user to user, large cascades of reshares can form. While a growing body of research has focused on analyzing and characterizing such cascades, a recent, parallel line of work has argued that the future trajectory of a cascade may be inherently unpredictable. In this work, we develop a framework for addressing cascade prediction problems. On a large sample of photo reshare cascades on Facebook, we find strong performance in predicting whether a cascade will continue to grow in the future. We find that the relative growth of a cascade becomes more predictable as we observe more of its reshares, that temporal and structural features are key predictors of cascade size, and that initially, breadth, rather than depth in a cascade is a better indicator of larger cascades. This prediction performance is robust in the sense that multiple distinct classes of features all achieve similar performance. We also discover that temporal features are predictive of a cascade's eventual shape. Observing independent cascades of the same content, we find that while these cascades differ greatly in size, we are still able to predict which ends up the largest.