Knowledge tracing---where a machine models the knowledge of a student as they interact with coursework---is a well established problem in computer supported education. Though effectively modeling student knowledge would have high educational impact, the task has many inherent challenges. In this paper we explore the utility of using Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) to model student learning. The RNN family of models have important advantages over previous methods in that they do not require the explicit encoding of human domain knowledge, and can capture more complex representations of student knowledge. Using neural networks results in substantial improvements in prediction performance on a range of knowledge tracing datasets. Moreover the learned model can be used for intelligent curriculum design and allows straightforward interpretation and discovery of structure in student tasks. These results suggest a promising new line of research for knowledge tracing and an exemplary application task for RNNs.
Simpler models from the Performance Factors Analysis (PFA) framework @cite_27 and Learning Factors Analysis (LFA) framework @cite_19 have shown predictive power comparable to BKT @cite_23 . To obtain better predictive results than with any one model alone, various ensemble methods have been used to combine BKT and PFA @cite_10 . Model combinations supported by AdaBoost, Random Forest, linear regression, logistic regression and a feed-forward neural network were all shown to deliver superior results to BKT and PFA on their own. But because of the learner models they rely on, these ensemble techniques grapple with the same limitations, including a requirement for accurate concept labeling.
@cite_19 @cite_27 @cite_10 @cite_23
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Knowledge tracing (KT)[1] has been used in various forms for adaptive computerized instruction for more than 40 years. However, despite its long history of application, it is difficult to use in domain model search procedures, has not been used to capture learning where multiple skills are needed to perform a single action, and has not been used to compute latencies of actions. On the other hand, existing models used for educational data mining (e.g. Learning Factors Analysis (LFA)[2]) and model search do not tend to allow the creation of a “model overlay” that traces predictions for individual students with individual skills so as to allow the adaptive instruction to automatically remediate performance. Because these limitations make the transition from model search to model application in adaptive instruction more difficult, this paper describes our work to modify an existing data mining model so that it can also be used to select practice adaptively. We compare this new adaptive data mining model (PFA, Performance Factors Analysis) with two versions of LFA and then compare PFA with standard KT. Many machine learning and pattern classification methods have been applied to the diagnosis of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and its prodromal stage, i.e., mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Recently, rather than predicting categorical variables as in classification, several pattern regression methods have also been used to estimate continuous clinical variables from brain images. However, most existing regression methods focus on estimating multiple clinical variables separately and thus cannot utilize the intrinsic useful correlation information among different clinical variables. On the other hand, in those regression methods, only a single modality of data (usually only the structural MRI) is often used, without considering the complementary information that can be provided by different modalities. In this paper, we propose a general methodology, namely Multi-Modal Multi-Task (M3T) learning, to jointly predict multiple variables from multi-modal data. Here, the variables include not only the clinical variables used for regression but also the categorical variable used for classification, with different tasks corresponding to prediction of different variables. Specifically, our method contains two key components, i.e., (1) a multi-task feature selection which selects the common subset of relevant features for multiple variables from each modality, and (2) a multi-modal support vector machine which fuses the above-selected features from all modalities to predict multiple (regression and classification) variables. To validate our method, we perform two sets of experiments on ADNI baseline MRI, FDG-PET, and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) data from 45 AD patients, 91 MCI patients, and 50 healthy controls (HC). In the first set of experiments, we estimate two clinical variables such as Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) and Alzheimer’s Disease Assessment Scale - Cognitive Subscale (ADAS-Cog), as well as one categorical variable (with value of ‘AD’, ‘MCI’ or ‘HC’), from the baseline MRI, FDG-PET, and CSF data. In the second set of experiments, we predict the 2-year changes of MMSE and ADAS-Cog scores and also the conversion of MCI to AD from the baseline MRI, FDG-PET, and CSF data. The results on both sets of experiments demonstrate that our proposed M3T learning scheme can achieve better performance on both regression and classification tasks than the conventional learning methods. Machine learning techniques such as classification and regression trees (CART) have been suggested as promising alternatives to logistic regression for the estimation of propensity scores. The authors examined the performance of various CART-based propensity score models using simulated data. Hypothetical studies of varying sample sizes (n=500, 1000, 2000) with a binary exposure, continuous outcome, and ten covariates were simulated under seven scenarios differing by degree of non-linear and non-additive associations between covariates and the exposure. Propensity score weights were estimated using logistic regression (all main effects), CART, pruned CART, and the ensemble methods of bagged CART, random forests, and boosted CART. Performance metrics included covariate balance, standard error, percent absolute bias, and 95 confidence interval coverage. All methods displayed generally acceptable performance under conditions of either non-linearity or non-additivity alone. However, under conditions of both moderate non-additivity and moderate non-linearity, logistic regression had subpar performance, while ensemble methods provided substantially better bias reduction and more consistent 95 CI coverage. The results suggest that ensemble methods, especially boosted CART, may be useful for propensity score weighting. An ensemble method that fuses the output decision vectors of multiple feedforward-designed convolutional neural networks (FF-CNNs) to solve the image classification problem is proposed in this work. To enhance the performance of the ensemble system, it is critical to increasing the diversity of FF-CNN models. To achieve this objective, we introduce diversities by adopting three strategies: 1) different parameter settings in convolutional layers, 2) flexible feature subsets fed into the Fully-connected (FC) layers, and 3) multiple image embeddings of the same input source. Furthermore, we partition input samples into easy and hard ones based on their decision confidence scores. As a result, we can develop a new ensemble system tailored to hard samples to further boost classification accuracy. Experiments are conducted on the MNIST and CIFAR-10 datasets to demonstrate the effectiveness of the ensemble method.