News articles are extremely time sensitive by nature. There is also intense competition among news items to propagate as widely as possible. Hence, the task of predicting the popularity of news items on the social web is both interesting and challenging. Prior research has dealt with predicting eventual online popularity based on early popularity. It is most desirable, however, to predict the popularity of items prior to their release, fostering the possibility of appropriate decision making to modify an article and the manner of its publication. In this paper, we construct a multi-dimensional feature space derived from properties of an article and evaluate the efficacy of these features to serve as predictors of online popularity. We examine both regression and classification algorithms and demonstrate that despite randomness in human behavior, it is possible to predict ranges of popularity on twitter with an overall 84 accuracy. Our study also serves to illustrate the differences between traditionally prominent sources and those immensely popular on the social web.
Finally, recent work on variation in the spread of content has been carried out by @cite_2 with a focus on categories of twitter hashtags (similar to keywords). This work is aligned with ours in its attention to importance of content in variations among popularity, however they consider categories only, with news being one of the hashtag categories. @cite_0 conduct similar work on social marketing messages.
@cite_0 @cite_2
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Because of Twitter’s popularity and the viral nature of information dissemination on Twitter, predicting which Twitter topics will become popular in the near future becomes a task of considerable economic importance. Many Twitter topics are annotated by hashtags. In this article, we propose methods to predict the popularity of new hashtags on Twitter by formulating the problem as a classification task. We use five standard classification models (i.e., Naive bayes, k-nearest neighbors, decision trees, support vector machines, and logistic regression) for prediction. The main challenge is the identification of effective features for describing new hashtags. We extract 7 content features from a hashtag string and the collection of tweets containing the hashtag and 11 contextual features from the social graph formed by users who have adopted the hashtag. We conducted experiments on a Twitter data set consisting of 31 million tweets from 2 million Singapore-based users. The experimental results show that the standard classifiers using the extracted features significantly outperform the baseline methods that do not use these features. Among the five classifiers, the logistic regression model performs the best in terms of the Micro-F1 measure. We also observe that contextual features are more effective than content features. There is a widespread intuitive sense that different kinds of information spread differently on-line, but it has been difficult to evaluate this question quantitatively since it requires a setting where many different kinds of information spread in a shared environment. Here we study this issue on Twitter, analyzing the ways in which tokens known as hashtags spread on a network defined by the interactions among Twitter users. We find significant variation in the ways that widely-used hashtags on different topics spread. Our results show that this variation is not attributable simply to differences in "stickiness," the probability of adoption based on one or more exposures, but also to a quantity that could be viewed as a kind of "persistence" - the relative extent to which repeated exposures to a hashtag continue to have significant marginal effects. We find that hashtags on politically controversial topics are particularly persistent, with repeated exposures continuing to have unusually large marginal effects on adoption; this provides, to our knowledge, the first large-scale validation of the "complex contagion" principle from sociology, which posits that repeated exposures to an idea are particularly crucial when the idea is in some way controversial or contentious. Among other findings, we discover that hashtags representing the natural analogues of Twitter idioms and neologisms are particularly non-persistent, with the effect of multiple exposures decaying rapidly relative to the first exposure. We also study the subgraph structure of the initial adopters for different widely-adopted hashtags, again finding structural differences across topics. We develop simulation-based and generative models to analyze how the adoption dynamics interact with the network structure of the early adopters on which a hashtag spreads. Since the introduction of microblogging services, there has been a continuous growth of short-text social networking on the Internet. With the generation of large amounts of microposts, there is a need for effective categorization and search of the data. Twitter, one of the largest microblogging sites, allows users to make use of hashtags to categorize their posts. However, the majority of tweets do not contain tags, which hinders the quality of the search results. In this paper, we propose a novel method for unsupervised and content-based hashtag recommendation for tweets. Our approach relies on Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) to model the underlying topic assignment of language classified tweets. The advantage of our approach is the use of a topic distribution to recommend general hashtags. The first objective towards the effective use of microblogging services such as Twitter for situational awareness during the emerging disasters is discovery of the disaster-related postings. Given the wide range of possible disasters, using a pre-selected set of disaster-related keywords for the discovery is suboptimal. An alternative that we focus on in this work is to train a classifier using a small set of labeled postings that are becoming available as a disaster is emerging. Our hypothesis is that utilizing large quantities of historical microblogs could improve the quality of classification, as compared to training a classifier only on the labeled data. We propose to use unlabeled microblogs to cluster words into a limited number of clusters and use the word clusters as features for classification. To evaluate the proposed semi-supervised approach, we used Twitter data from 6 different disasters. Our results indicate that when the number of labeled tweets is 100 or less, the proposed approach is superior to the standard classification based on the bag or words feature representation. Our results also reveal that the choice of the unlabeled corpus, the choice of word clustering algorithm, and the choice of hyperparameters can have a significant impact on the classification accuracy.