In online debates, as in offline ones, individual utterances or arguments support or attack each other, leading to some subset of arguments winning (potentially from different sides of the debate). However, online conversations are much larger in scale than offline ones, with often hundreds of thousands of users weighing in, and so, readers are often forced to sample a subset of the arguments or arguments being put forth. Since such sampling is rarely done in a principled manner, users may not get all the relevant "winning" arguments to get a full picture of the debate from a sample. This paper is interested in answering the question of how users should sample online conversations to selectively favour winning arguments. We apply techniques from argumentation theory and complex networks to build a model that predicts the probabilities of the normatively winning arguments given their location in idealised online discussions. Online discussions are modeled as reply networks where nodes represent the comments exchanged and directed edges represent replies that can either be supporting or attacking. Our model shows that the proportion of replies that are supporting in the network, the network's in-degree distribution and the locations of unrebutted arguments ("the last words") all determine the behaviour of the probability that a comment is a winning argument given its location. This is also verified with data scraped from the online debating platform Kialo. In predicting the locations of the winning arguments in reply networks, we can therefore suggest which arguments a reader should sample and read if he or she would like to grasp the winning opinions in such discussions. Our models have important implications for the design of future online discussion platforms.
It is important to study online discussions because they can affect the offline world. For example, @cite_36 has shown that large companies (as defined by Forbes) may actively censor critical comments. However, the magnitude of such effects is open for debate in some cases. For example, @cite_32 has clarified the factors behind how much the spread of fake news on social media can be responsible for influencing the 2016 US Presidential Election from the perspective of welfare economics, and argued that there are good reasons to argue that the effects are both small and large. Also, Twitter allows for UK MPs to follow other MPs; which may facilitate cross-party discussions despite ideological differences @cite_39 . But on the individual level, we seek to understand how information can be presented to them such that they read the most compelling of comments made in a discussion.
@cite_36 @cite_32 @cite_39
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In 2010, a paper entitled "From Obscurity to Prominence in Minutes: Political Speech and Real-time search" won the Best Paper Prize of the WebSci'10 conference. Among its findings were the discovery and documentation of what was labeled a "Twitter bomb", an organized effort to spread misinformation about the democratic candidate Martha Coakley through anonymous Twitter accounts. In this paper, after summarizing the details of that event, we outline the recipe of how social networks are used to spread misinformation. One of the most important steps in such a recipe is the "infiltration" of a community of users who are already engaged in conversations about a topic, to use them as organic spreaders of misinformation in their extended subnetworks. Then, we take this misinformation spreading recipe and indicate how it was successfully used to spread fake news during the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election. The main differences between the scenarios are the use of Facebook instead of Twitter, and the respective motivations (in 2010: political influence; in 2016: financial benefit through online advertising). After situating these events in the broader context of exploiting the Web, we seize this opportunity to address limitations of the reach of research findings and to start a conversation about how communities of researchers can in- crease their impact on real-world societ al issues. Social media have been extensively praised for increasing democratic discussion on social issues related to policy and politics. However, what happens when this powerful communication tools are exploited to manipulate online discussion, to change the public perception of political entities, or even to try affecting the outcome of political elections? In this study we investigated how the presence of social media bots, algorithmically driven entities that on the surface appear as legitimate users, affect political discussion around the 2016 U.S. Presidential election. By leveraging state-of-the-art social bot detection algorithms, we uncovered a large fraction of user population that may not be human, accounting for a significant portion of generated content (about one-fifth of the entire conversation). We inferred political partisanships from hashtag adoption, for both humans and bots, and studied spatio-temporal communication, political support dynamics, and influence mechanisms by discovering the level of network embeddedness of the bots. Our findings suggest that the presence of social media bots can indeed negatively affect democratic political discussion rather than improving it, which in turn can potentially alter public opinion and endanger the integrity of the Presidential election. The extensive use of social media has tremendous impact on culture, business, and politics on the world at large with potentially positive and negative effects. For example, social media coverage of crisis events may be used by authorities for effective disaster management or by malicious entities to spread rumors and fake news for financial or political benefit. Considering the harmful consequences of fake news in social media, there is a profound need to detect false information, control and or prevent it from spreading. In this paper, we propose an advanced framework to identify tweets with fake news contents using techniques including statistical analysis of Twitter user account, reverse image searching, cross verification of fake news sources, and data mining. Experimental results on a large miscellaneous events dataset demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach in identifying fake tweets. Transmitting messages in the most efficient way as possible has always been one of politicians’ main concerns during electoral processes. Due to the rapidly growing number of users, online social networks have become ideal platforms for politicians to interact with their potential voters. Exploiting the available potential of these tools to maximize their influence over voters is one of politicians’ actual challenges. To step in this direction, we have analyzed the user activity in the online social network Twitter, during the 2011 Spanish Presidential electoral process, and found that such activity is correlated with the election results. We introduce a new measure to study political sentiment in Twitter, which we call the relative support. We have also characterized user behavior by analyzing the structural and dynamical patterns of the complex networks emergent from the mention and retweet networks. Our results suggest that the collective attention is driven by a very small fraction of users. Furthermo...