We present a simple model of a non-equilibrium self-organizing market where asset prices are partially driven by investment decisions of a bounded-rational agent. The agent acts in a stochastic market environment driven by various exogenous "alpha" signals, agent's own actions (via market impact), and noise. Unlike traditional agent-based models, our agent aggregates all traders in the market, rather than being a representative agent. Therefore, it can be identified with a bounded-rational component of the market itself, providing a particular implementation of an Invisible Hand market mechanism. In such setting, market dynamics are modeled as a fictitious self-play of such bounded-rational market-agent in its adversarial stochastic environment. As rewards obtained by such self-playing market agent are not observed from market data, we formulate and solve a simple model of such market dynamics based on a neuroscience-inspired Bounded Rational Information Theoretic Inverse Reinforcement Learning (BRIT-IRL). This results in effective asset price dynamics with a non-linear mean reversion - which in our model is generated dynamically, rather than being postulated. We argue that our model can be used in a similar way to the Black-Litterman model. In particular, it represents, in a simple modeling framework, market views of common predictive signals, market impacts and implied optimal dynamic portfolio allocations, and can be used to assess values of private signals. Moreover, it allows one to quantify a "market-implied" optimal investment strategy, along with a measure of market rationality. Our approach is numerically light, and can be implemented using standard off-the-shelf software such as TensorFlow.
We use entropy-regularized Reinforcement Learning in the form suggested by Tishby and co-workers under the name of G-learning @cite_15 , as a way to do Reinforcement Learning in a noisy environment. While @cite_15 assumed a tabulated discrete-state discrete-action setting, in our case both the state and action spaces are high-dimensional continuous spaces. For a tutorial-style introduction to Information-constrained Markov Decision Processes, see Larsson el. al. @cite_35 .
@cite_35 @cite_15
1554120378 2619268125 2785342287 2950462959
Learning to act optimally in a complex, dynamic and noisy environment is a hard problem. Various threads of research from reinforcement learning, animal conditioning, operations research, machine learning, statistics and optimal control are beginning to come together to offer solutions to this problem. I present a thesis in which novel algorithms are presented for learning the dynamics, learning the value function, and selecting good actions for Markov decision processes. The problems considered have high-dimensional factored state and action spaces, and are either fully or partially observable. The approach I take is to recognize similarities between the problems being solved in the reinforcement learning and graphical models literature, and to use and combine techniques from the two fields in novel ways. In particular I present two new algorithms. First, the DBN algorithm learns a compact representation of the core process of a partially observable MDP. Because inference in the DBN is intractable, I use approximate inference to maintain the belief state. A belief state action-value function is learned using reinforcement learning. I show that this DBN algorithm can solve POMDPs with very large state spaces and useful hidden state. Second, the PoE algorithm learns an approximation to value functions over large factored state-action spaces. The algorithm approximates values as (negative) free energies in a product of experts model. The model parameters can be learned efficiently because inference is tractable in a product of experts. I show that good actions can be found even in large factored action spaces by the use of brief Gibbs sampling. These two new algorithms take techniques from the machine learning community and apply them in new ways to reinforcement learning problems. Simulation results show that these new methods can be used to solve very large problems. The DBN method is used to solve a POMDP with a hidden state space and an observation space of size greater than 2180. The DBN model of the core process has 232 states represented as 32 binary variables. The PoE method is used to find actions in action spaces of size 240 . We propose a general framework for entropy-regularized average-reward reinforcement learning in Markov decision processes (MDPs). Our approach is based on extending the linear-programming formulation of policy optimization in MDPs to accommodate convex regularization functions. Our key result is showing that using the conditional entropy of the joint state-action distributions as regularization yields a dual optimization problem closely resembling the Bellman optimality equations. This result enables us to formalize a number of state-of-the-art entropy-regularized reinforcement learning algorithms as approximate variants of Mirror Descent or Dual Averaging, and thus to argue about the convergence properties of these methods. In particular, we show that the exact version of the TRPO algorithm of (2015) actually converges to the optimal policy, while the entropy-regularized policy gradient methods of (2016) may fail to converge to a fixed point. Finally, we illustrate empirically the effects of using various regularization techniques on learning performance in a simple reinforcement learning setup. We present a method for reinforcement learning of closely related skills that are parameterized via a skill embedding space. We learn such skills by taking advantage of latent variables and exploiting a connection between reinforcement learning and variational inference. The main contribution of our work is an entropy-regularized policy gradient formulation for hierarchical policies, and an associated, data-efficient and robust off-policy gradient algorithm based on stochastic value gradients. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on several simulated robotic manipulation tasks. We find that our method allows for discovery of multiple solutions and is capable of learning the minimum number of distinct skills that are necessary to solve a given set of tasks. In addition, our results indicate that the hereby proposed technique can interpolate and or sequence previously learned skills in order to accomplish more complex tasks, even in the presence of sparse rewards. Reinforcement Learning algorithms can learn complex behavioral patterns for sequential decision making tasks wherein an agent interacts with an environment and acquires feedback in the form of rewards sampled from it. Traditionally, such algorithms make decisions, i.e., select actions to execute, at every single time step of the agent-environment interactions. In this paper, we propose a novel framework, Fine Grained Action Repetition (FiGAR), which enables the agent to decide the action as well as the time scale of repeating it. FiGAR can be used for improving any Deep Reinforcement Learning algorithm which maintains an explicit policy estimate by enabling temporal abstractions in the action space. We empirically demonstrate the efficacy of our framework by showing performance improvements on top of three policy search algorithms in different domains: Asynchronous Advantage Actor Critic in the Atari 2600 domain, Trust Region Policy Optimization in Mujoco domain and Deep Deterministic Policy Gradients in the TORCS car racing domain.