In this paper, we study multi-armed bandit problems in explore-then-commit setting. In our proposed explore-then-commit setting, the goal is to identify the best arm after a pure experimentation (exploration) phase and exploit it once or for a given finite number of times. We identify that although the arm with the highest expected reward is the most desirable objective for infinite exploitations, it is not necessarily the one that is most probable to have the highest reward in a single or finite-time exploitations. Alternatively, we advocate the idea of risk-aversion where the objective is to compete against the arm with the best risk-return trade-off. Then, we propose two algorithms whose objectives are to select the arm that is most probable to reward the most. Using a new notion of finite-time exploitation regret, we find an upper bound for the minimum number of experiments before commitment, to guarantee an upper bound for the regret. As compared to existing risk-averse bandit algorithms, our algorithms do not rely on hyper-parameters, resulting in a more robust behavior in practice, which is verified by the numerical evaluation.
Explore-then-commit is a class of multi-armed bandit problems that has two consecutive phases named as exploration (experimentation) and commitment. The decision maker can arbitrarily explore each arm in the experimentation phase; however, he she needs to commit to one selected arm in the commitment phase. There are several studies on explore-then-commit bandits in the literature as follows. @cite_8 studied the optimal number of explorations when cost is incurred in both phases. @cite_27 designed an explore-then-commit algorithm for the case where there is a limited space to record the arm reward statistics. @cite_19 studied explore-then-commit policy under the assumption that the employed policy must split explorations into a number of batches. None of these works have addressed the risk-averse issue on explore-then-commit bandits. In the following, we present an overview on risk-averse bandits.
@cite_19 @cite_27 @cite_8
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The multiarmed bandit is often used as an analogy for the tradeoff between exploration and exploitation in search problems. The classic problem involves allocating trials to the arms of a multiarmed slot machine to maximize the expected sum of rewards. We pose a new variation of the multiarmed bandit--the Max K-Armed Bandit--in which trials must be allocated among the arms to maximize the expected best single sample reward of the series of trials. Motivation for the Max K-Armed Bandit is the allocation of restarts among a set of multistart stochastic search algorithms. We present an analysis of this Max K-Armed Bandit showing under certain assumptions that the optimal strategy allocates trials to the observed best arm at a rate increasing double exponentially relative to the other arms. This motivates an exploration strategy that follows a Boltzmann distribution with an exponentially decaying temperature parameter. We compare this exploration policy to policies that allocate trials to the observed best arm at rates faster (and slower) than double exponentially. The results confirm, for two scheduling domains, that the double exponential increase in the rate of allocations to the observed best heuristic outperfonns the other approaches. The restless bandit problem is one of the most well-studied generalizations of the celebrated stochastic multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem in decision theory. In its ultimate generality, the restless bandit problem is known to be PSPACE-Hard to approximate to any nontrivial factor, and little progress has been made on this problem despite its significance in modeling activity allocation under uncertainty. In this article, we consider the Feedback MAB problem, where the reward obtained by playing each of n independent arms varies according to an underlying on off Markov process whose exact state is only revealed when the arm is played. The goal is to design a policy for playing the arms in order to maximize the infinite horizon time average expected reward. This problem is also an instance of a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP), and is widely studied in wireless scheduling and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) routing. Unlike the stochastic MAB problem, the Feedback MAB problem does not admit to greedy index-based optimal policies. We develop a novel duality-based algorithmic technique that yields a surprisingly simple and intuitive (2+e)-approximate greedy policy to this problem. We show that both in terms of approximation factor and computational efficiency, our policy is closely related to the Whittle index, which is widely used for its simplicity and efficiency of computation. Subsequently we define a multi-state generalization, that we term Monotone bandits, which remains subclass of the restless bandit problem. We show that our policy remains a 2-approximation in this setting, and further, our technique is robust enough to incorporate various side-constraints such as blocking plays, switching costs, and even models where determining the state of an arm is a separate operation from playing it. Our technique is also of independent interest for other restless bandit problems, and we provide an example in nonpreemptive machine replenishment. Interestingly, in this case, our policy provides a constant factor guarantee, whereas the Whittle index is provably polynomially worse. By presenting the first O(1) approximations for nontrivial instances of restless bandits as well as of POMDPs, our work initiates the study of approximation algorithms in both these contexts. In the classic Bayesian restless multi-armed bandit (RMAB) problem, there are N arms, with rewards on all arms evolving at each time as Markov chains with known parameters. A player seeks to activate K ≥ 1 arms at each time in order to maximize the expected total reward obtained over multiple plays. RMAB is a challenging problem that is known to be PSPACE-hard in general. We consider in this work the even harder non-Bayesian RMAB, in which the parameters of the Markov chain are assumed to be unknown a priori. We develop an original approach to this problem that is applicable when the corresponding Bayesian problem has the structure that, depending on the known parameter values, the optimal solution is one of a prescribed finite set of policies. In such settings, we propose to learn the optimal policy for the non-Bayesian RMAB by employing a suitable meta-policy which treats each policy from this finite set as an arm in a different non-Bayesian multi-armed bandit problem for which a single-arm selection policy is optimal. We demonstrate this approach by developing a novel sensing policy for opportunistic spectrum access over unknown dynamic channels. We prove that our policy achieves near-logarithmic regret (the difference in expected reward compared to a model-aware genie), which leads to the same average reward that can be achieved by the optimal policy under a known model. This is the first such result in the literature for a non-Bayesian RMAB. We consider the restless multi-armed bandit (RMAB) problem with unknown dynamics. At each time, a player chooses K out of N (N > K) arms to play. The state of each arm determines the reward when the arm is played and transits according to Markovian rules no matter the arm is engaged or passive. The Markovian dynamics of the arms are unknown to the player. The objective is to maximize the long-term expected reward by designing an optimal arm selection policy. The performance of a policy is measured by regret, defined as the reward loss with respect to the case where the player knows which K arms are the most rewarding and always plays these K best arms. We construct a policy, referred to as Restless Upper Confidence Bound (RUCB), that achieves a regret with logarithmic order of time when an arbitrary nontrivial bound on certain system parameters is known. When no knowledge about the system is available, we extend the RUCB policy to achieve a regret arbitrarily close to the logarithmic order. In both cases, the system achieves the maximum average reward offered by the K best arms. Potential applications of these results include cognitive radio networks, opportunistic communications in unknown fading environments, and financial investment.