Social media expose millions of users every day to information campaigns --- some emerging organically from grassroots activity, others sustained by advertising or other coordinated efforts. These campaigns contribute to the shaping of collective opinions. While most information campaigns are benign, some may be deployed for nefarious purposes. It is therefore important to be able to detect whether a meme is being artificially promoted at the very moment it becomes wildly popular. This problem has important social implications and poses numerous technical challenges. As a first step, here we focus on discriminating between trending memes that are either organic or promoted by means of advertisement. The classification is not trivial: ads cause bursts of attention that can be easily mistaken for those of organic trends. We designed a machine learning framework to classify memes that have been labeled as trending on Twitter.After trending, we can rely on a large volume of activity data. Early detection, occurring immediately at trending time, is a more challenging problem due to the minimal volume of activity data that is available prior to trending.Our supervised learning framework exploits hundreds of time-varying features to capture changing network and diffusion patterns, content and sentiment information, timing signals, and user meta-data. We explore different methods for encoding feature time series. Using millions of tweets containing trending hashtags, we achieve 75 AUC score for early detection, increasing to above 95 after trending. We evaluate the robustness of the algorithms by introducing random temporal shifts on the trend time series. Feature selection analysis reveals that content cues provide consistently useful signals; user features are more informative for early detection, while network and timing features are more helpful once more data is available.
The proposed framework is based on a mixture of features common in social media data, including emotional and sentiment information. The literature has reported extensively on the use of social media content to describe emotional and demographic characteristics of users @cite_11 @cite_67 @cite_1 . The use of language in online communities is the focus of two recent papers @cite_79 @cite_82 : the authors observe that the language of social media users evolves, and common patterns emerge over time. The language style of users adapts to achieve better fitness in the conversation @cite_35 . These findings suggest that language contains strong signals, in particular if studied in conjunction with other dimensions of the data. Our study confirms the importance of content for campaign detection.
@cite_35 @cite_67 @cite_11 @cite_1 @cite_79 @cite_82
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While the study of the connection between discourse patterns and personal identification is decades old, the study of these patterns using language technologies is relatively recent. In that more recent tradition we frame author age prediction from text as a regression problem. We explore the same task using three very different genres of data simultaneously: blogs, telephone conversations, and online forum posts. We employ a technique from domain adaptation that allows us to train a joint model involving all three corpora together as well as separately and analyze differences in predictive features across joint and corpus-specific aspects of the model. Effective features include both stylistic ones (such as POS patterns) as well as content oriented ones. Using a linear regression model based on shallow text features, we obtain correlations up to 0.74 and mean absolute errors between 4.1 and 6.8 years. Social media content can be used as a complementary source to the traditional methods for extracting and studying collective social attributes. This study focuses on the prediction of the occupational class for a public user profile. Our analysis is conducted on a new annotated corpus of Twitter users, their respective job titles, posted textual content and platform-related attributes. We frame our task as classification using latent feature representations such as word clusters and embeddings. The employed linear and, especially, non-linear methods can predict a user’s occupational class with strong accuracy for the coarsest level of a standard occupation taxonomy which includes nine classes. Combined with a qualitative assessment, the derived results confirm the feasibility of our approach in inferring a new user attribute that can be embedded in a multitude of downstream applications. Social media platforms have become a major gateway to receive and analyze public opinions. Understanding users can provide invaluable context information of their social media posts and significantly improve traditional opinion analysis models. Demographic attributes, such as ethnicity, gender, age, among others, have been extensively applied to characterize social media users. While studies have shown that user groups formed by demographic attributes can have coherent opinions towards political issues, these attributes are often not explicitly coded by users through their profiles. Previous work has demonstrated the effectiveness of different user signals such as users’ posts and names in determining demographic attributes. Yet, these efforts mostly evaluate linguistic signals from users’ posts and train models from artificially balanced datasets. In this paper, we propose a comprehensive list of user signals: self-descriptions and posts aggregated from users’ friends and followers, users’ profile images, and users’ names. We provide a comparative study of these signals side-by-side in the tasks on inferring three major demographic attributes, namely ethnicity, gender, and age. We utilize a realistic unbalanced datasets that share similar demographic makeups in Twitter for training models and evaluation experiments. Our experiments indicate that self-descriptions provide the strongest signal for ethnicity and age inference and clearly improve the overall performance when combined with tweets. Profile images for gender inference have the highest precision score with overall score close to the best result in our setting. This suggests that signals in self-descriptions and profile images have potentials to facilitate demographic attribute inferences in Twitter, and are promising for future investigation. In recent years, new studies concentrating on analyzing user personality and finding credible content in social media have become quite popular. Most such work augments features from textual content with features representing the user's social ties and the tie strength. Social ties are crucial in understanding the network the people are a part of. However, textual content is extremely useful in understanding topics discussed and the personality of the individual. We bring a new dimension to this type of analysis with methods to compute the type of ties individuals have and the strength of the ties in each dimension. We present a new genre of behavioral features that are able to capture the "function" of a specific relationship without the help of textual features. Our novel features are based on the statistical properties of communication patterns between individuals such as reciprocity, assortativity, attention and latency. We introduce a new methodology for determining how such features can be compared to textual features, and show, using Twitter data, that our features can be used to capture contextual information present in textual features very accurately. Conversely, we also demonstrate how textual features can be used to determine social attributes related to an individual.