In developing countries like India agriculture plays an extremely important role in the lives of the population. In India, around 80 of the population depend on agriculture or its by-products as the primary means for employment. Given large population dependency on agriculture, it becomes extremely important for the government to estimate market factors in advance and prepare for any deviation from those estimates. Commodity arrivals to market is an extremely important factor which is captured at district level throughout the country. Historical data and short-term prediction of important variables such as arrivals, prices, crop quality etc. for commodities are used by the government to take proactive steps and decide various policy measures. In this paper, we present a framework to work with short timeseries in conjunction with remote sensing data to predict future commodity arrivals. We deal with extremely high dimensional data which exceed the observation sizes by multiple orders of magnitude. We use cascaded layers of dimensionality reduction techniques combined with regularized regression models for prediction. We present results to predict arrivals to major markets and state wide prices for Tur' (red gram) crop in Karnataka, India. Our model consistently beats popular ML techniques on many instances. Our model is scalable, time efficient and can be generalized to many other crops and regions. We draw multiple insights from the regression parameters, some of which are important aspects to consider when predicting more complex quantities such as prices in the future. We also combine the insights to generate important recommendations for different government organizations.
Given the rate at which algorithms for crop classification and yield measurement have improved in recent years, future applications of satellite data are likely to be particularly rich in the agricultural arena. Different bands, and combinations thereof, have various useful properties. Plants reflect different sets of frequencies, at different rates, for different stages of their life cycle. For this reason, functions of reflectance in specific portions of the visible and infrared spectra can provide information about vegetation growth. This insight is used to produce the commonly used Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) @cite_24 . Infrared data can also be used to measure temperature and, indirectly, precipitation when applied to clouds (for example, @cite_17 ). Different techniques have been proposed to merge remote sensing data, more specifically NDVI with yield and crop parameter prediction. Time series based methods for yield prediction were proposed by @cite_12 . Supervised classification techniques were proposed by @cite_23 . Linear regression based crop coefficient prediction models were proposed by @cite_13 . In a recent paper Aviv and Lundsgaard-Nielsen @cite_14 propose a method to predict soy yield by coupling remote sensing data with soil measurement data for 58 locations.
@cite_14 @cite_24 @cite_23 @cite_13 @cite_12 @cite_17
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Monitoring crop condition and yields at regional scales using imagery from operational satellites remains a challenge because of the problem in scaling local yield simulations to the regional scales. NOAA AVHRR satellite imagery has been traditionally used to monitor vegetation changes that are used indirectly to assess crop condition and yields. Additionally, the 1-km spatial resolution of NOAA AVHRR is not adequate for monitoring crops at the field level. Imagery from the new MODIS sensor onboard the NASA Terra satellite offers an excellent opportunity for daily coverage at 250-m resolution, which is adequate to monitor field sizes are larger than 25 ha. A field study was conducted in the predominantly corn and soybean area of Iowa to evaluate the applicability of the 8-day MODIS composite imagery in operational assessment of crop condition and yields. Ground-based canopy reflectance and leaf area index (LAI) measurements were used to calibrate the models. The MODIS data was used in a radiative transfer model to estimate LAI through the season. LAI was integrated into a climate-based crop simulation model to scale from local simulation of crop development and responses to a regional scale. Simulations of corn and soybean yields at a 1.6×1.6-km2 grid scale were comparable to county yields reported by the USDA–National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS). Weekly changes in soil moisture for the top 1-m profile were also simulated as part of the crop model as one of the critical parameters influencing crop condition and yields. article i nfo The remote detection of water stress in a citrus orchard was investigated using leaf-level measurements of chlorophyll fluorescence and Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI) data, seasonal time-series of crown tem- perature and PRI, and high-resolution airborne imagery. The work was conducted in an orchard where a reg- ulated deficit irrigation (RDI) experiment generated a gradient in water stress levels. Stomatal conductance (Gs) and water potential (Ψ) were measured over the season on each treatment block. The airborne data consisted on thermal and hyperspectral imagery acquired at the time of maximum stress differences among treatments, prior to the re-watering phase, using a miniaturized thermal camera and a micro-hyperspectral imager on board an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). The hyperspectral imagery was acquired at 40 cm resolution and 260 spectral bands in the 400-885 nm spectral range at 6.4 nm full width at half maximum (FWHM) spectral resolution and 1.85 nmsampling interval,enablingthe identificationof pure crownsfor extractingradiance andreflectance hyperspectral spectra from each tree. The FluorMOD model was used to investigate the retrieval of chlorophyll fluorescence by applying the Fraunhofer Line Depth (FLD) principle using three spectral bands (FLD3), which demonstrated that fluorescence retrievalwas feasible with the configuration of the UAV micro-hyperspectral in- strument flown over the orchard. Results demonstrated the link between seasonal PRI and crown temperature acquired from instrumented trees and field measurements of stomatal conductance and water potential. The sensitivity of PRI and Tc-Ta time-series to water stress levels demonstrated a time delay of PRI vs Tc-Ta during the recovery phase after re-watering started. At the time of the maximum stress difference among treatment blocks, the airborneimagery acquired fromthe UAV platform demonstrated that the crown temperature yielded the best coefficient of determination for Gs (r 2 Crop coefficient (Kc)-based estimation of crop evapotranspiration is one of the most commonly used methods for irrigation water management. However, uncertainties of the generalized dual crop coefficient (Kc) method of the Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations Irrigation and Drainage Paper No. 56 can contribute to crop evapotranspiration estimates that are substantially different from actual crop evapotranspiration. Similarities between the crop coefficient curve and a satellite-derived vegetation index showed potential for modeling a crop coefficient as a function of the vegetation index. Therefore, the possibility of directly estimating the crop coefficient from satellite reflectance of a crop was investigated. The Kc data used in developing the relationship with NDVI were derived from back-calculations of the FAO-56 dual crop coefficients procedure using field data obtained during 2007 from representative US cropping systems in the High Plains from AmeriFlux sites. A simple linear regression model ( ) is developed to establish a general relationship between a normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from a moderate resolution satellite data (MODIS) and the crop coefficient (Kc) calculated from the flux data measured for different crops and cropping practices using AmeriFlux towers. There was a strong linear correlation between the NDVI-estimated Kc and the measured Kc with an r2 of 0.91 and 0.90, while the root-mean-square error (RMSE) for Kc in 2006 and 2007 were 0.16 and 0.19, respectively. The procedure for quantifying crop coefficients from NDVI data presented in this paper should be useful in other regions of the globe to understand regional irrigation water consumption. Agricultural management increasingly uses crop maps based on classification of remotely sensed data. However, classification errors can translate to errors in model outputs, for instance agricultural production monitoring (yield, water demand) or crop acreage calculation. Hence, knowledge on the spatial variability of the classier performance is important information for the user. But this is not provided by traditional assessments of accuracy, which are based on the confusion matrix. In this study, classification uncertainty was analyzed, based on the support vector machines (SVM) algorithm. SVM was applied to multi-spectral time series data of RapidEye from different agricultural landscapes and years. Entropy was calculated as a measure of classification uncertainty, based on the per-object class membership estimations from the SVM algorithm. Permuting all possible combinations of available images allowed investigating the impact of the image acquisition frequency and timing, respectively, on the classification uncertainty. Results show that multi-temporal datasets decrease classification uncertainty for different crops compared to single data sets, but there was no “one-image-combination-fits-all” solution. The number and acquisition timing of the images, for which a decrease in uncertainty could be realized, proved to be specific to a given landscape, and for each crop they differed across different landscapes. For some crops, an increase of uncertainty was observed when increasing the quantity of images, even if classification accuracy was improved. Random forest regression was employed to investigate the impact of different explanatory variables on the observed spatial pattern of classification uncertainty. It was strongly influenced by factors related with the agricultural management and training sample density. Lower uncertainties were revealed for fields close to rivers or irrigation canals. This study demonstrates that classification uncertainty estimates by the SVM algorithm provide a valuable addition to traditional accuracy assessments. This allows analyzing spatial variations of the classifier performance in maps and also differences in classification uncertainty within the growing season and between crop types, respectively.