In this study we analyze the dynamics of the contact list evolution of millions of users of the Skype communication network. We find that egocentric networks evolve heterogeneously in time as events of edge additions and deletions of individuals are grouped in long bursty clusters, which are separated by long inactive periods. We classify users by their link creation dynamics and show that bursty peaks of contact additions are likely to appear shortly after user account creation. We also study possible relations between bursty contact addition activity and other user-initiated actions like free and paid service adoption events. We show that bursts of contact additions are associated with increases in activity and adoption—an observation that can inform the design of targeted marketing tactics.
Temporal evolution of networks was studied thoroughly during the last years as datasets recording the dynamics of millions of interacting entities became available @cite_3 . One of the most investigated area was the evolution of large social networks @cite_24 @cite_20 @cite_11 @cite_1 where it has been shown that several mechanisms push such networks towards developing heterogeneous topologies and strongly modular structures @cite_26 @cite_13 @cite_12 . In addition various methodologies have been developed to detect evolving mezoscopic patterns @cite_4 @cite_6 and emerging community structures @cite_8 . Our study falls under the same umbrella as these previous works but focuses on the temporal evolution of egocentric networks.
@cite_26 @cite_4 @cite_8 @cite_1 @cite_3 @cite_6 @cite_24 @cite_13 @cite_12 @cite_20 @cite_11
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Detecting the time evolution of the community structure of networks is crucial to identify major changes in the internal organization of many complex systems, which may undergo important endogenous or exogenous events. This analysis can be done in two ways: considering each snapshot as an independent community detection problem or taking into account the whole evolution of the network. In the first case, one can apply static methods on the temporal snapshots, which correspond to configurations of the system in short time windows, and match afterward the communities across layers. Alternatively, one can develop dedicated dynamic procedures so that multiple snapshots are simultaneously taken into account while detecting communities, which allows us to keep memory of the flow. To check how well a method of any kind could capture the evolution of communities, suitable benchmarks are needed. Here we propose a model for generating simple dynamic benchmark graphs, based on stochastic block models. In them, the time evolution consists of a periodic oscillation of the system's structure between configurations with built-in community structure. We also propose the extension of quality comparison indices to the dynamic scenario. Temporal networks come with a wide variety of heterogeneities, from burstiness of event sequences to correlations between timings of node and link activations. In this paper, we set to explore the latter by using temporal greedy walks as probes of temporal network structure. Given a temporal network (a sequence of contacts), temporal greedy walks proceed from node to node by always following the first available contact. Because of this, their structure is particularly sensitive to temporal-topological patterns involving repeated contacts between sets of nodes. This becomes evident in their small coverage per step taken as compared to a temporal reference model – in empirical temporal networks, greedy walks often get stuck within small sets of nodes because of correlated contact patterns. While this may also happen in static networks that have pronounced community structure, the use of the temporal reference model takes the underlying static network structure out of the equation and indicates that there is a purely temporal reason for the observations. Further analysis of the structure of greedy walks indicates that burst trains, sequences of repeated contacts between node pairs, are the dominant factor. However, there are larger patterns too, as shown with non-backtracking greedy walks. We proceed further to study the entropy rates of greedy walks, and show that the sequences of visited nodes are more structured and predictable in original data as compared to temporally uncorrelated references. Taken together, these results indicate a richness of correlated temporal-topological patterns in temporal networks. We discover communities from social network data and analyze the community evolution. These communities are inherent characteristics of human interaction in online social networks, as well as paper citation networks. Also, communities may evolve over time, due to changes to individuals' roles and social status in the network as well as changes to individuals' research interests. We present an innovative algorithm that deviates from the traditional two-step approach to analyze community evolutions. In the traditional approach, communities are first detected for each time slice, and then compared to determine correspondences. We argue that this approach is inappropriate in applications with noisy data. In this paper, we propose FacetNet for analyzing communities and their evolutions through a robust unified process. This novel framework will discover communities and capture their evolution with temporal smoothness given by historic community structures. Our approach relies on formulating the problem in terms of maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation, where the community structure is estimated both by the observed networked data and by the prior distribution given by historic community structures. Then we develop an iterative algorithm, with proven low time complexity, which is guaranteed to converge to an optimal solution. We perform extensive experimental studies, on both synthetic datasets and real datasets, to demonstrate that our method discovers meaningful communities and provides additional insights not directly obtainable from traditional methods. The systematic study of large-scale networks has unveiled the ubiquitous presence of connectivity patterns characterized by large-scale heterogeneities and unbounded statistical fluctuations. These features affect dramatically the behavior of the diffusion processes occurring on networks, determining the ensuing statistical properties of their evolution pattern and dynamics. In this article, we present a stochastic computational framework for the forecast of global epidemics that considers the complete worldwide air travel infrastructure complemented with census population data. We address two basic issues in global epidemic modeling: (i) we study the role of the large scale properties of the airline transportation network in determining the global diffusion pattern of emerging diseases; and (ii) we evaluate the reliability of forecasts and outbreak scenarios with respect to the intrinsic stochasticity of disease transmission and traffic flows. To address these issues we define a set of quantitative measures able to characterize the level of heterogeneity and predictability of the epidemic pattern. These measures may be used for the analysis of containment policies and epidemic risk assessment.