Social networks play a fundamental role in the diffusion of information. However, there are two different ways of how information reaches a person in a network. Information reaches us through connections in our social networks, as well as through the influence of external out-of-network sources, like the mainstream media. While most present models of information adoption in networks assume information only passes from a node to node via the edges of the underlying network, the recent availability of massive online social media data allows us to study this process in more detail. We present a model in which information can reach a node via the links of the social network or through the influence of external sources. We then develop an efficient model parameter fitting technique and apply the model to the emergence of URL mentions in the Twitter network. Using a complete one month trace of Twitter we study how information reaches the nodes of the network. We quantify the external influences over time and describe how these influences affect the information adoption. We discover that the information tends to "jump" across the network, which can only be explained as an effect of an unobservable external influence on the network. We find that only about 71 of the information volume in Twitter can be attributed to network diffusion, and the remaining 29 is due to external events and factors outside the network.
External influence in networks has been considered in the case of the popularity of YouTube videos @cite_7 . Authors considered a simple model of information diffusion on an implicit completely connected network and argued that since some videos became popular quicker than their model predicted, the additional popularity must have been a result of external influence. Our approach differs significantly: We directly consider the network and the effect of node-to-node interactions, explicitly infer the activity of external source over time and use a much more realistic model of information adoption that distinguishes between exposures to and the adoption of information. Our model builds on the notion of exposure curves which was proposed and studied by @cite_13 . Recently, it was also argued @cite_6 that it is the shape of exposure curves that stops the information from spreading. We make a step forward by providing an inference method that infers the shape of such exposure curves. Simulations show that our method much more accurately infers the exposure curves than the methods previously proposed @cite_13 @cite_6 .
@cite_13 @cite_6 @cite_7
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Social networks play a fundamental role in the diffusion of information. However, there are two different ways of how information reaches a person in a network. Information reaches us through connections in our social networks, as well as through the influence external out-of-network sources, like the mainstream media. While most present models of information adoption in networks assume information only passes from a node to node via the edges of the underlying network, the recent availability of massive online social media data allows us to study this process in more detail. We present a model in which information can reach a node via the links of the social network or through the influence of external sources. We then develop an efficient model parameter fitting technique and apply the model to the emergence of URL mentions in the Twitter network. Using a complete one month trace of Twitter we study how information reaches the nodes of the network. We quantify the external influences over time and describe how these influences affect the information adoption. We discover that the information tends to "jump" across the network, which can only be explained as an effect of an unobservable external influence on the network. We find that only about 71 of the information volume in Twitter can be attributed to network diffusion, and the remaining 29 is due to external events and factors outside the network. It is widely believed that the success of deep convolutional networks is based on progressively discarding uninformative variability about the input with respect to the problem at hand. This is supported empirically by the difficulty of recovering images from their hidden representations, in most commonly used network architectures. In this paper we show that this loss of information is not a necessary condition to learn representations that generalize well on complicated problems, such as ImageNet. Via a cascade of homeomorphic layers, we build the i-RevNet, a network that can be fully inverted up to the final projection onto the classes, i.e. no information is discarded. Building an invertible architecture is difficult, for example, because the local inversion is ill-conditioned, we overcome this by providing an explicit inverse. An analysis of i-RevNet’s learned representations suggests an explanation of the good accuracy by a progressive contraction and linear separation with depth. To shed light on the nature of the model learned by the i-RevNet we reconstruct linear interpolations between natural images representations. Social media forms a central domain for the production and dissemination of real-time information. Even though such flows of information have traditionally been thought of as diffusion processes over social networks, the underlying phenomena are the result of a complex web of interactions among numerous participants. Here we develop the Linear Influence Model where rather than requiring the knowledge of the social network and then modeling the diffusion by predicting which node will influence which other nodes in the network, we focus on modeling the global influence of a node on the rate of diffusion through the (implicit) network. We model the number of newly infected nodes as a function of which other nodes got infected in the past. For each node we estimate an influence function that quantifies how many subsequent infections can be attributed to the influence of that node over time. A nonparametric formulation of the model leads to a simple least squares problem that can be solved on large datasets. We validate our model on a set of 500 million tweets and a set of 170 million news articles and blog posts. We show that the Linear Influence Model accurately models influences of nodes and reliably predicts the temporal dynamics of information diffusion. We find that patterns of influence of individual participants differ significantly depending on the type of the node and the topic of the information. Video popularity prediction plays a foundational role in many aspects of life, such as recommendation systems and investment consulting. Because of its technological and economic importance, this problem has been extensively studied for years. However, four constraints have limited most related works' usability. First, most feature oriented models are inadequate in the social media environment, because many videos are published with no specific content features, such as a strong cast or a famous script. Second, many studies assume that there is a linear correlation existing between view counts from early and later days, but this is not the case in every scenario. Third, numerous works just take view counts into consideration, but discount associated sentiments. Nevertheless, it is the public opinions that directly drive a video's final success failure. Also, many related approaches rely on a network topology, but such topologies are unavailable in many situations. Here, we propose a Dual Sentimental Hawkes Process (DSHP) to cope with all the problems above. DSHP's innovations are reflected in three ways: (1) it breaks the "Linear Correlation" assumption, and implements Hawkes Process; (2) it reveals deeper factors that affect a video's popularity; and (3) it is topology free. We evaluate DSHP on four types of videos: Movies, TV Episodes, Music Videos, and Online News, and compare its performance against 6 widely used models, including Translation Model, Multiple Linear Regression, KNN Regression, ARMA, Reinforced Poisson Process, and Univariate Hawkes Process. Our model outperforms all of the others, which indicates a promising application prospect.