In this paper, we propose a method of ranking recently created Twitter accounts according to their prospective popularity. Early detection of new promising accounts is useful for trend prediction, viral marketing, user recommendation, and so on. New accounts are, however, difficult to evaluate because they have not established their reputations, and we cannot apply existing link-based or other popularity-based account evaluation methods. Our method first finds "early adopters", i.e., users who often find new good information sources earlier than others. Our method then regards new accounts followed by good early adopters as promising, even if they do not have many followers now. In order to find good early adopters, we estimate the frequency of link propagation from each account, i.e., how many times the follow links from the account have been copied by its followers. If its followers have copied many of its follow links in the past, the account must be an early adopter, who find good information sources earlier than its followers. We develop a method of inferring which links are created by copying which links. One advantage of our method is that our method only uses information that can be easily obtained only by crawling neighbors of the target accounts in the current Twitter graph. We evaluated our method by an experiment on Twitter data. We chose then-new accounts from an old snapshot of Twitter, compute their ranking by our method, and compare it with the number of followers the accounts currently have. The result shows that our method produces better rankings than various baseline methods, especially for new accounts that have only a few followers.
The discovery of early adopters in online community has been discussed in several studies. @cite_14 analyzed how users adopt new contents in a social network in Second Life, and identified early adopters, but also found that early adopters do not always have significant influence on the other users. Saez- @cite_3 proposed a method of identifying early adopters that also have significant influence on the others in information network, such as Twitter, and called such users trendsetters. These studies focused on temporal relationship of users' adoption of contents, such as hashtags and URLs. @cite_13 also proposed a method of identifying leaders in online communities whose actions, e.g., tagging resources or rating songs, are imitated by many users. On the other hand, we focused on the adoption of new Twitter accounts, i.e., the creation of new follow links, and imitation of them by the followers. We showed that the idea similar to theirs can also be applied to such a type of actions in order to predict future popularity of new accounts in Twitter. Another contribution of this paper is to develop a method of inferring who copied which follow links, the information which is not immediately available.
@cite_14 @cite_13 @cite_3
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Many people share their activities with others through online communities. These shared activities have an impact on other users' activities. For example, users are likely to become interested in items that are adopted (e.g. liked, bought and shared) by their friends. In this paper, we propose a probabilistic model for discovering latent influence from sequences of item adoption events. An inhomogeneous Poisson process is used for modeling a sequence, in which adoption by a user triggers the subsequent adoption of the same item by other users. For modeling adoption of multiple items, we employ multiple inhomogeneous Poisson processes, which share parameters, such as influence for each user and relations between users. The proposed model can be used for finding influential users, discovering relations between users and predicting item popularity in the future. We present an efficient Bayesian inference procedure of the proposed model based on the stochastic EM algorithm. The effectiveness of the proposed model is demonstrated by using real data sets in a social bookmark sharing service. Social influence determines to a large extent what we adopt and when we adopt it. This is just as true in the digital domain as it is in real life, and has become of increasing importance due to the deluge of user-created content on the Internet. In this paper, we present an empirical study of user-to-user content transfer occurring in the context of a time-evolving social network in Second Life, a massively multiplayer virtual world. We identify and model social influence based on the change in adoption rate following the actions of one's friends and find that the social network plays a significant role in the adoption of content. Adoption rates quicken as the number of friends adopting increases and this effect varies with the connectivity of a particular user. We further find that sharing among friends occurs more rapidly than sharing among strangers, but that content that diffuses primarily through social influence tends to have a more limited audience. Finally, we examine the role of individuals, finding that some play a more active role in distributing content than others, but that these influencers are distinct from the early adopters. There is a widespread intuitive sense that different kinds of information spread differently on-line, but it has been difficult to evaluate this question quantitatively since it requires a setting where many different kinds of information spread in a shared environment. Here we study this issue on Twitter, analyzing the ways in which tokens known as hashtags spread on a network defined by the interactions among Twitter users. We find significant variation in the ways that widely-used hashtags on different topics spread. Our results show that this variation is not attributable simply to differences in "stickiness," the probability of adoption based on one or more exposures, but also to a quantity that could be viewed as a kind of "persistence" - the relative extent to which repeated exposures to a hashtag continue to have significant marginal effects. We find that hashtags on politically controversial topics are particularly persistent, with repeated exposures continuing to have unusually large marginal effects on adoption; this provides, to our knowledge, the first large-scale validation of the "complex contagion" principle from sociology, which posits that repeated exposures to an idea are particularly crucial when the idea is in some way controversial or contentious. Among other findings, we discover that hashtags representing the natural analogues of Twitter idioms and neologisms are particularly non-persistent, with the effect of multiple exposures decaying rapidly relative to the first exposure. We also study the subgraph structure of the initial adopters for different widely-adopted hashtags, again finding structural differences across topics. We develop simulation-based and generative models to analyze how the adoption dynamics interact with the network structure of the early adopters on which a hashtag spreads. Twitter has become a significant means by which people communicate with the world and describe their current activities, opinions and status in short text snippets. Tweets can be analyzed automatically in order to derive much potential information such as, interesting topics, social influence, user’s communities, etc. Community extraction within social networks has been a focus of recent work in several areas. Different from the most community discovery methods focused on the relations between users, we aim to derive user’s communities based on common topics from user’s tweets. For instance, if two users always talk about politic in their tweets, thus they can be grouped in the same community which is related to politic topic. To achieve this goal, we propose a new approach called CETD: Community Extraction based on Topic-Driven-Model. This approach combines our proposed model used to detect topics of the user’s tweets based on a semantic taxonomy together with a community extraction method based on the hierarchical clustering technique. Our experimentation on the proposed approach shows the relevant of the users communities extracted based on their common topics and domains.