Existing video prediction methods mainly rely on observing multiple historical frames or focus on predicting the next one-frame. In this work, we study the problem of generating consecutive multiple future frames by observing one single still image only. We formulate the multi-frame prediction task as a multiple time step flow (multi-flow) prediction phase followed by a flow-to-frame synthesis phase. The multi-flow prediction is modeled in a variational probabilistic manner with spatial-temporal relationships learned through 3D convolutions. The flow-to-frame synthesis is modeled as a generative process in order to keep the predicted results lying closer to the manifold shape of real video sequence. Such a two-phase design prevents the model from directly looking at the high-dimensional pixel space of the frame sequence and is demonstrated to be more effective in predicting better and diverse results. Extensive experimental results on videos with different types of motion show that the proposed algorithm performs favorably against existing methods in terms of quality, diversity and human perceptual evaluation.
In terms of modeling future uncertainties, two methods @cite_2 @cite_5 are closely related. However, Xue al @cite_2 only model the uncertainty in the next one-step prediction. If we iteratively run the one-step prediction model for multi-step predictions, the frame quality will degrade fast through error accumulations, due to the lack of temporal relationships modeling between frames. Though Walker al @cite_5 could keep forecasting over the course of one second, instead of predicting real future frames, it only predicts the dense trajectory of pixels. Also such a trajectory-supervised modeling requires laborious human labeling. Different from these methods, our approach integrates the multi-frame prediction and uncertainty modeling in one model.
@cite_5 @cite_2
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Existing video prediction methods mainly rely on observing multiple historical frames or focus on predicting the next one-frame. In this work, we study the problem of generating consecutive multiple future frames by observing one single still image only. We formulate the multi-frame prediction task as a multiple time step flow (multi-flow) prediction phase followed by a flow-to-frame synthesis phase. The multi-flow prediction is modeled in a variational probabilistic manner with spatial-temporal relationships learned through 3D convolutions. The flow-to-frame synthesis is modeled as a generative process in order to keep the predicted results lying closer to the manifold shape of real video sequence. Such a two-phase design prevents the model from directly looking at the high-dimensional pixel space of the frame sequence and is demonstrated to be more effective in predicting better and diverse results. Extensive experimental results on videos with different types of motion show that the proposed algorithm performs favorably against existing methods in terms of quality, diversity and human perceptual evaluation. Given a visual history, multiple future outcomes for a video scene are equally probable, in other words, the distribution of future outcomes has multiple modes. Multimodality is notoriously hard to handle by standard regressors or classifiers: the former regress to the mean and the latter discretize a continuous high dimensional output space. In this work, we present stochastic neural network architectures that handle such multimodality through stochasticity: future trajectories of objects, body joints or frames are represented as deep, non-linear transformations of random (as opposed to deterministic) variables. Such random variables are sampled from simple Gaussian distributions whose means and variances are parametrized by the output of convolutional encoders over the visual history. We introduce novel convolutional architectures for predicting future body joint trajectories that outperform fully connected alternatives DBLP:journals corr WalkerDGH16 . We introduce stochastic spatial transformers through optical flow warping for predicting future frames, which outperform their deterministic equivalents DBLP:journals corr PatrauceanHC15 . Training stochastic networks involves an intractable marginalization over stochastic variables. We compare various training schemes that handle such marginalization through a) straightforward sampling from the prior, b) conditional variational autoencoders NIPS2015_5775,DBLP:journals corr WalkerDGH16 , and, c) a proposed K-best-sample loss that penalizes the best prediction under a fixed "prediction budget". We show experimental results on object trajectory prediction, human body joint trajectory prediction and video prediction under varying future uncertainty, validating quantitatively and qualitatively our architectural choices and training schemes. Predicting future frames for a video sequence is a challenging generative modeling task. Promising approaches include probabilistic latent variable models such as the Variational Auto-Encoder. While VAEs can handle uncertainty and model multiple possible future outcomes, they have a tendency to produce blurry predictions. In this work we argue that this is a sign of underfitting. To address this issue, we propose to increase the expressiveness of the latent distributions and to use higher capacity likelihood models. Our approach relies on a hierarchy of latent variables, which defines a family of flexible prior and posterior distributions in order to better model the probability of future sequences. We validate our proposal through a series of ablation experiments and compare our approach to current state-of-the-art latent variable models. Our method performs favorably under several metrics in three different datasets. We propose a hierarchical approach for making long-term predictions of future frames. To avoid inherent compounding errors in recursive pixel-level prediction, we propose to first estimate high-level structure in the input frames, then predict how that structure evolves in the future, and finally by observing a single frame from the past and the predicted high-level structure, we construct the future frames without having to observe any of the pixel-level predictions. Long-term video prediction is difficult to perform by recurrently observing the predicted frames because the small errors in pixel space exponentially amplify as predictions are made deeper into the future. Our approach prevents pixel-level error propagation from happening by removing the need to observe the predicted frames. Our model is built with a combination of LSTM and analogy-based encoder-decoder convolutional neural networks, which independently predict the video structure and generate the future frames, respectively. In experiments, our model is evaluated on the Human 3.6M and Penn Action datasets on the task of long-term pixel-level video prediction of humans performing actions and demonstrate significantly better results than the state-of-the-art.