We use multiple measures of graph complexity to evaluate the realism of synthetically-generated networks of human activity, in comparison with several stylized network models as well as a collection of empirical networks from the literature. The synthetic networks are generated by integrating data about human populations from several sources, including the Census, transportation surveys, and geographical data. The resulting networks represent an approximation of daily or weekly human interaction. Our results indicate that the synthetically generated graphs according to our methodology are closer to the real world graphs, as measured across multiple structural measures, than a range of stylized graphs generated using common network models from the literature.
studied differences in social contact networks generated according to different methods @cite_37 and the differences between the networks generated for two different cities (Delhi and Los Angeles) @cite_27 . They used both static and dynamic measures including degree distribution, temporal degree, vulnerability distribution, simulated epidemic curves, and the efficacy of two different epidemic mitigation interventions. Vulnerability is the probability that a node gets infected during an infectious disease outbreak. They showed significant differences due to the network generation methodology as well as across the two cities.
@cite_27 @cite_37
1914370899 2043890595 2086916865 2100741829
Given a contact network that changes over time (say, day vs night connectivity), and the SIS (susceptible infected susceptible, flu like) virus propagation model, what can we say about its epidemic threshold? That is, can we determine when a small infection will "take-off" and create an epidemic? Consequently then, which nodes should we immunize to prevent an epidemic? This is a very real problem, since, e.g. people have different connections during the day at work, and during the night at home. Static graphs have been studied for a long time, with numerous analytical results. Time-evolving networks are so hard to analyze, that most existing works are simulation studies [5]. Specifically, our contributions in this paper are: (a) we formulate the problem by approximating it by a Non-linear Dynamical system (NLDS), (b) we derive the first closed formula for the epidemic threshold of time-varying graphs under the SIS model, and finally (c) we show the usefulness of our threshold by presenting efficient heuristics and evaluate the effectiveness of our methods on synthetic and real data like the MIT reality mining graphs. The systematic study of large-scale networks has unveiled the ubiquitous presence of connectivity patterns characterized by large-scale heterogeneities and unbounded statistical fluctuations. These features affect dramatically the behavior of the diffusion processes occurring on networks, determining the ensuing statistical properties of their evolution pattern and dynamics. In this article, we present a stochastic computational framework for the forecast of global epidemics that considers the complete worldwide air travel infrastructure complemented with census population data. We address two basic issues in global epidemic modeling: (i) we study the role of the large scale properties of the airline transportation network in determining the global diffusion pattern of emerging diseases; and (ii) we evaluate the reliability of forecasts and outbreak scenarios with respect to the intrinsic stochasticity of disease transmission and traffic flows. To address these issues we define a set of quantitative measures able to characterize the level of heterogeneity and predictability of the epidemic pattern. These measures may be used for the analysis of containment policies and epidemic risk assessment. We consider the problem of controlling the propagation of an epidemic outbreak in an arbitrary contact network by distributing vaccination resources throughout the network. We analyze a networked version of the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic model when individuals in the network present different levels of susceptibility to the epidemic. In this context, controlling the spread of an epidemic outbreak can be written as a spectral condition involving the eigenvalues of a matrix that depends on the network structure and the parameters of the model. We study the problem of finding the optimal distribution of vaccines throughout the network to control the spread of an epidemic outbreak. We propose a convex framework to find cost-optimal distribution of vaccination resources when different levels of vaccination are allowed.We illustrate our approaches with numerical simulations in a real social network. Empirical data on contacts between individuals in social contexts play an important role in providing information for models describing human behavior and how epidemics spread in populations. Here, we analyze data on face-to-face contacts collected in an office building. The statistical properties of contacts are similar to other social situations, but important differences are observed in the contact network structure. In particular, the contact network is strongly shaped by the organization of the offices in departments, which has consequences in the design of accurate agent-based models of epidemic spread. We consider the contact network as a potential substrate for infectious disease spread and show that its sparsity tends to prevent outbreaks of rapidly spreading epidemics. Moreover, we define three typical behaviors according to the fraction f of links each individual shares outside its own department: residents, wanderers, and linkers. Linkers ( f 50 ) act as bridges in the network and have large betweenness centralities. Thus, a vaccination strategy targeting linkers efficiently prevents large outbreaks. As such a behavior may be spotted a priori in the offices' organization or from surveys, without the full knowledge of the time-resolved contact network, this result may help the design of efficient, low-cost vaccination or social-distancing strategies.