The key idea of Bayesian optimization is replacing an expensive target function with a cheap surrogate model. By selection of an acquisition function for Bayesian optimization, we trade off between exploration and exploitation. The acquisition function typically depends on the mean and the variance of the surrogate model at a given point. The most common Gaussian process-based surrogate model assumes that the target with fixed parameters is a realization of a Gaussian process. However, often the target function doesn't satisfy this approximation. Here we consider target functions that come from the binomial distribution with the parameter that depends on inputs. Typically we can vary how many Bernoulli samples we obtain during each evaluation. We propose a general Gaussian process model that takes into account Bernoulli outputs. To make things work we consider a simple acquisition function based on Expected Improvement and a heuristic strategy to choose the number of samples at each point thus taking into account precision of the obtained output.
As mentioned in chapter values of a black box could have Binomial distribution. It means that the exact Bayesian inference fails, since the likelihood is not Gaussian. The same problem arises when you try to adapt the Gaussian processes for the task of classification @cite_21 or robust regression with Laplace or Cauchy likelihood @cite_13 .
@cite_21 @cite_13
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Optimising black-box functions is important in many disciplines, such as tuning machine learning models, robotics, finance and mining exploration. Bayesian optimisation is a state-of-the-art technique for the global optimisation of black-box functions which are expensive to evaluate. At the core of this approach is a Gaussian process prior that captures our belief about the distribution over functions. However, in many cases a single Gaussian process is not flexible enough to capture non-stationarity in the objective function. Consequently, heteroscedasticity negatively affects performance of traditional Bayesian methods. In this paper, we propose a novel prior model with hierarchical parameter learning that tackles the problem of non-stationarity in Bayesian optimisation. Our results demonstrate substantial improvements in a wide range of applications, including automatic machine learning and mining exploration. An empirical Bayes approach to the estimation of possibly sparse sequences observed in Gaussian white noise is set out and investigated. The prior considered is a mixture of an atom of probability at zero and a heavy-tailed density y, with the mixing weight chosen by marginal maximum likelihood, in the hope of adapting between sparse and dense sequences. If estimation is then carried out using the posterior median, this is a random thresholding procedure. Other thresholding rules employing the same threshold can also be used. Probability bounds on the threshold chosen by the marginal maximum likelihood approach lead to overall risk bounds over classes of signal sequences of length n, allowing for sparsity of various kinds and degrees. The signal classes considered are nearly black sequences where only a proportion η is allowed to be nonzero, and sequences with normalized p norm bounded by η, for η > 0 and 0 1. Simulations show excellent performance. For appropriately chosen functions y, the method is computationally tractable and software is available. The extension to a modified thresholding method relevant to the estimation of very sparse sequences is also considered. We introduce overdispersed black-box variational inference, a method to reduce the variance of the Monte Carlo estimator of the gradient in black-box variational inference. Instead of taking samples from the variational distribution, we use importance sampling to take samples from an overdispersed distribution in the same exponential family as the variational approximation. Our approach is general since it can be readily applied to any exponential family distribution, which is the typical choice for the variational approximation. We run experiments on two non-conjugate probabilistic models to show that our method effectively reduces the variance, and the overhead introduced by the computation of the proposal parameters and the importance weights is negligible. We find that our overdispersed importance sampling scheme provides lower variance than black-box variational inference, even when the latter uses twice the number of samples. This results in faster convergence of the black-box inference procedure. We consider in this paper the problem of sampling a high-dimensional probability distribution @math having a density with respect to the Lebesgue measure on @math , known up to a normalization constant @math . Such problem naturally occurs for example in Bayesian inference and machine learning. Under the assumption that @math is continuously differentiable, @math is globally Lipschitz and @math is strongly convex, we obtain non-asymptotic bounds for the convergence to stationarity in Wasserstein distance of order @math and total variation distance of the sampling method based on the Euler discretization of the Langevin stochastic differential equation, for both constant and decreasing step sizes. The dependence on the dimension of the state space of these bounds is explicit. The convergence of an appropriately weighted empirical measure is also investigated and bounds for the mean square error and exponential deviation inequality are reported for functions which are measurable and bounded. An illustration to Bayesian inference for binary regression is presented to support our claims.