The past few years has seen the rapid growth of data min- ing approaches for the analysis of data obtained from Mas- sive Open Online Courses (MOOCs). The objectives of this study are to develop approaches to predict the scores a stu- dent may achieve on a given grade-related assessment based on information, considered as prior performance or prior ac- tivity in the course. We develop a personalized linear mul- tiple regression (PLMR) model to predict the grade for a student, prior to attempting the assessment activity. The developed model is real-time and tracks the participation of a student within a MOOC (via click-stream server logs) and predicts the performance of a student on the next as- sessment within the course offering. We perform a com- prehensive set of experiments on data obtained from three openEdX MOOCs via a Stanford University initiative. Our experimental results show the promise of the proposed ap- proach in comparison to baseline approaches and also helps in identification of key features that are associated with the study habits and learning behaviors of students.
Several researchers have focused on the analysis of education data (including MOOCs), in an effort to understand the characteristics of student learning behaviors and motivation within this education model @cite_1 . Boyer et. al. @cite_14 focus on the stopout prediction problem within MOOCs; by designing a set of processes using information from previous courses and the previous weeks of the current course. Brinton et. al. @cite_5 developed an approach to predict if a student answers a question correct on the first attempt via click-stream information and social learning networks. Kennedy et. al. @cite_19 analyzed the relationship between a student's prior knowledge on end-of-MOOC performance. Sunar et. al. @cite_18 developed an approach to predict the possible interactions between peers participating in a MOOC.
@cite_18 @cite_14 @cite_1 @cite_19 @cite_5
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We examine the process of engineering features for developing models that improve our understanding of learners' online behavior in MOOCs. Because feature engineering relies so heavily on human insight, we argue that extra effort should be made to engage the crowd for feature proposals and even their operationalization. We show two approaches where we have started to engage the crowd. We also show how features can be evaluated for their relevance in predictive accuracy. When we examined crowd-sourced features in the context of predicting stopout, not only were they nuanced, but they also considered more than one interaction mode between the learner and platform and how the learner was relatively performing. We were able to identify different influential features for stop out prediction that depended on whether a learner was in 1 of 4 cohorts defined by their level of engagement with the course discussion forum or wiki. This report is part of a compendium which considers different aspects of MOOC data science and stop out prediction. Data recorded while learners are interacting with Massive Open Online Courses (MOOC) platforms provide a unique opportunity to build predictive models that can help anticipate future behaviors and develop interventions. But since most of the useful predictive problems are defined for a real-time framework, using knowledge drawn from the past courses becomes crucial. To address this challenge, we designed a set of processes that take advantage of knowledge from both previous courses and previous weeks of the same course to make real time predictions on learners behavior. In particular, we evaluate multiple transfer learning methods. In this article, we present our results for the stopout prediction problem (predicting which learners are likely to stop engaging in the course). We believe this paper is a first step towards addressing the need of transferring knowledge across courses. We study student performance prediction in Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs), where the objective is to predict whether a user will be Correct on First Attempt (CFA) in answering a question. In doing so, we develop novel techniques that leverage behavioral data collected by MOOC platforms. Using video-watching clickstream data from one of our MOOCs, we first extract summary quantities (e.g., fraction played, number of pauses) for each user-video pair, and show how certain intervals sets of values for these behaviors quantify that a pair is more likely to be CFA or not for the corresponding question. Motivated by these findings, our methods are designed to determine suitable intervals from training data and to use the corresponding success estimates as learning features in prediction algorithms. Tested against a large set of empirical data, we find that our schemes outperform standard algorithms (i.e., without behavioral data) for all datasets and metrics tested. Moreover, the improvement is particularly pronounced when considering the first few course weeks, demonstrating the “early detection” capability of such clickstream data. We also discuss how CFA prediction can be used to depict graphs of the Social Learning Network (SLN) of students, which can help instructors manage courses more effectively. While MOOCs have taken the world by storm, questions remain about their pedagogical value and high rates of attrition. In this paper we argue that MOOCs which have open entry and open curriculum structures, place pressure on learners to not only have the requisite knowledge and skills to complete the course, but also the skills to traverse the course in adaptive ways that lead to success. The empirical study presented in the paper investigated the degree to which students' prior knowledge and skills, and their engagement with the MOOC as measured through learning analytics, predict end-of-MOOC performance. The findings indicate that prior knowledge is the most significant predictor of MOOC success followed by students' ability to revise and revisit their previous work.