Consumer Debt has risen to be an important problem of modern societies, generating a lot of research in order to understand the nature of consumer indebtness, which so far its modelling has been carried out by statistical models. In this work we show that Computational Intelligence can offer a more holistic approach that is more suitable for the complex relationships an indebtness dataset has and Linear Regression cannot uncover. In particular, as our results show, Neural Networks achieve the best performance in modelling consumer indebtness, especially when they manage to incorporate the significant and experimentally verified results of the Data Mining process in the model, exploiting the flexibility Neural Networks offer in designing their topology. This novel method forms an elaborate framework to model Consumer indebtness that can be extended to any other real world application.
Statistical models and linear regression are primarily used for the level of debt prediction in the literature. A significant amount of the work is summarised in @cite_3 where they also provide a model for separating debtors from non-debtors. However, their suggested logit model suffers from a low @math (33 On the other hand, Random Forests, a popular machine learning algorithm for Data Mining, has been shown to be able to handle non-linearities in the data @cite_4 . They have received a lot of attention in biostatistics and other fields @cite_4 due to their ability to handle a large number of variables with a relatively small number of observations and because they provide a way to identify variable importance @cite_4 @cite_6 . They manage to demonstrate exceptional performance with only one parameter and their regression has been proven not to overfit the data @cite_6 . An interesting application of Random Forests is in @cite_13 where a model measuring the impact of the reviews of products in sales and perceived usefulness was constructed.
@cite_13 @cite_4 @cite_6 @cite_3
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Machine learning techniques such as classification and regression trees (CART) have been suggested as promising alternatives to logistic regression for the estimation of propensity scores. The authors examined the performance of various CART-based propensity score models using simulated data. Hypothetical studies of varying sample sizes (n=500, 1000, 2000) with a binary exposure, continuous outcome, and ten covariates were simulated under seven scenarios differing by degree of non-linear and non-additive associations between covariates and the exposure. Propensity score weights were estimated using logistic regression (all main effects), CART, pruned CART, and the ensemble methods of bagged CART, random forests, and boosted CART. Performance metrics included covariate balance, standard error, percent absolute bias, and 95 confidence interval coverage. All methods displayed generally acceptable performance under conditions of either non-linearity or non-additivity alone. However, under conditions of both moderate non-additivity and moderate non-linearity, logistic regression had subpar performance, while ensemble methods provided substantially better bias reduction and more consistent 95 CI coverage. The results suggest that ensemble methods, especially boosted CART, may be useful for propensity score weighting. This review presents a unified, efficient model of random decision forests which can be applied to a number of machine learning, computer vision, and medical image analysis tasks. Our model extends existing forest-based techniques as it unifies classification, regression, density estimation, manifold learning, semi-supervised learning, and active learning under the same decision forest framework. This gives us the opportunity to write and optimize the core implementation only once, with application to many diverse tasks. The proposed model may be used both in a discriminative or generative way and may be applied to discrete or continuous, labeled or unlabeled data. The main contributions of this review are: (1) Proposing a unified, probabilistic and efficient model for a variety of learning tasks; (2) Demonstrating margin-maximizing properties of classification forests; (3) Discussing probabilistic regression forests in comparison with other nonlinear regression algorithms; (4) Introducing density forests for estimating probability density functions; (5) Proposing an efficient algorithm for sampling from a density forest; (6) Introducing manifold forests for nonlinear dimensionality reduction; (7) Proposing new algorithms for transductive learning and active learning. Finally, we discuss how alternatives such as random ferns and extremely randomized trees stem from our more general forest model. This document is directed at both students who wish to learn the basics of decision forests, as well as researchers interested in the new contributions. It presents both fundamental and novel concepts in a structured way, with many illustrative examples and real-world applications. Thorough comparisons with state-of-the-art algorithms such as support vector machines, boosting and Gaussian processes are presented and relative advantages and disadvantages discussed. The many synthetic examples and existing commercial applications demonstrate the validity of the proposed model and its flexibility. Relative importance of regressor variables is an old topic that still awaits a satisfactory solution. When interest is in attributing importance in linear regression, averaging over orderings methods for decomposing R2 are among the state-of-the-art methods, although the mechanism behind their behavior is not (yet) completely understood. Random forests—a machine-learning tool for classification and regression proposed a few years ago—have an inherent procedure of producing variable importances. This article compares the two approaches (linear model on the one hand and two versions of random forests on the other hand) and finds both striking similarities and differences, some of which can be explained whereas others remain a challenge. The investigation improves understanding of the nature of variable importance in random forests. This article has supplementary material online. Recommender problems with large and dynamic item pools are ubiquitous in web applications like content optimization, online advertising and web search. Despite the availability of rich item meta-data, excess heterogeneity at the item level often requires inclusion of item-specific "factors" (or weights) in the model. However, since estimating item factors is computationally intensive, it poses a challenge for time-sensitive recommender problems where it is important to rapidly learn factors for new items (e.g., news articles, event updates, tweets) in an online fashion. In this paper, we propose a novel method called FOBFM (Fast Online Bilinear Factor Model) to learn item-specific factors quickly through online regression. The online regression for each item can be performed independently and hence the procedure is fast, scalable and easily parallelizable. However, the convergence of these independent regressions can be slow due to high dimensionality. The central idea of our approach is to use a large amount of historical data to initialize the online models based on offline features and learn linear projections that can effectively reduce the dimensionality. We estimate the rank of our linear projections by taking recourse to online model selection based on optimizing predictive likelihood. Through extensive experiments, we show that our method significantly and uniformly outperforms other competitive methods and obtains relative lifts that are in the range of 10-15 in terms of predictive log-likelihood, 200-300 for a rank correlation metric on a proprietary My Yahoo! dataset; it obtains 9 reduction in root mean squared error over the previously best method on a benchmark MovieLens dataset using a time-based train test data split.