In this paper, we propose a framework to infer the topic preferences of Donald Trump's followers on Twitter. We first use latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) to derive the weighted mixture of topics for each Trump tweet. Then we use negative binomial regression to model the "likes," with the weights of each topic serving as explanatory variables. Our study shows that attacking Democrats such as President Obama and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton earns Trump the most "likes." Our framework of inference is generalizable to the study of other politicians.
There are also quite a few studies modeling individual behaviors in social media. @cite_3 models the decision to retweet, using Twitter user features such as agreeableness, number of tweets posted, and daily tweeting patterns. @cite_2 models individuals' waiting time before replying to a tweet based on their previous replying patterns. Our study models the number of likes'' that a Trump's tweet receives. Our innovation is to use tweet-specific features instead of individual-specific features, as done in the above-cited literature.
@cite_3 @cite_2
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There has been much effort on studying how social media sites, such as Twitter, help propagate information in different situations, including spreading alerts and SOS messages in an emergency. However, existing work has not addressed how to actively identify and engage the right strangers at the right time on social media to help effectively propagate intended information within a desired time frame. To address this problem, we have developed three models: (1) a feature-based model that leverages people's exhibited social behavior, including the content of their tweets and social interactions, to characterize their willingness and readiness to propagate information on Twitter via the act of retweeting; (2) a wait-time model based on a user's previous retweeting wait times to predict his or her next retweeting time when asked; and (3) a subset selection model that automatically selects a subset of people from a set of available people using probabilities predicted by the feature-based model and maximizes retweeting rate. Based on these three models, we build a recommender system that predicts the likelihood of a stranger to retweet information when asked, within a specific time window, and recommends the top-N qualified strangers to engage with. Our experiments, including live studies in the real world, demonstrate the effectiveness of our work. Previous studies have established the link between one's actions (e.g., engaging with others vs. minding one's own business) and one's national culture (e.g., collectivist vs. individualistic), and such actions have been shown to be important as they are collectively affiliated with a country's economic outcomes (e.g., Gross Domestic Product). Hitherto there has not been any systematic study of whether one's action on Twitter (e.g., deciding when to post messages) is linked to one's culture (e.g., country's Pace of Life). To fix that, we build different network snapshots starting from 55,000 seed users on Twitter, and we do so for 10 weeks across 30 countries (after filtering those with low penetration rates) for a total of 2.34 M profiles. Based on Hofstede's theory of cultural dimensions and Levine's Pace of Life theory, we consider three behavioral patterns on Twitter (i.e., temporal predictability of tweets, engaging with others, and supporting others who are less popular) and associate them with three different dimensions derived from the two theories: Pace of Life, Individualism and Power Distance. We find the following strong correlations: activity predictability negatively correlates with Pace of Life (r=-0.62), tweets with mentions negatively correlates with Individualism (r = -0.55), and power (e.g, Twitter popularity) imbalance in relationships (between, for example, two users mentioning each other) is correlated with Power Distance (r=0.62). These three cultural dimensions matter because they are associated with a country's socio-economic aspects - with GDP per capita, income inequality, and education expenditure. Existing models for social media personal analytics assume access to thousands of messages per user, even though most users author content only sporadically over time. Given this sparsity, we: (i) leverage content from the local neighborhood of a user; (ii) evaluate batch models as a function of size and the amount of messages in various types of neighborhoods; and (iii) estimate the amount of time and tweets required for a dynamic model to predict user preferences. We show that even when limited or no selfauthored data is available, language from friend, retweet and user mention communications provide sufficient evidence for prediction. When updating models over time based on Twitter, we find that political preference can be often be predicted using roughly 100 tweets, depending on the context of user selection, where this could mean hours, or weeks, based on the author’s tweeting frequency. Twitter and other microblogs have rapidly become a significant means by which people communicate with the world and each other in near realtime. There has been a large number of studies surrounding these social media, focusing on areas such as information spread, various centrality measures, topic detection and more. However, one area which has not received much attention is trying to better understand what information is being spread and why it is being spread. This work looks to get a better understanding of what makes people spread information in tweets or microblogs through the use of retweeting. Several retweet behavior models are presented and evaluated on a Twitter data set consisting of over 768,000 tweets gathered from monitoring over 30,000 users for a period of one month. We evaluate the proposed models against each user and show how people use different retweet behavior models. For example, we find that although users in the majority of cases do not retweet information on topics that they themselves Tweet about as or from people who are "like them" (hence anti-homophily), we do find that models which do take homophily, or similarity, into account fits the observed retweet behaviors much better than other more general models which do not take this into account. We further find that, not surprisingly, people's retweeting behavior is better explained through multiple different models rather than one model.