Group discussions are essential for organizing every aspect of modern life, from faculty meetings to senate debates, from grant review panels to papal conclaves. While costly in terms of time and organization effort, group discussions are commonly seen as a way of reaching better decisions compared to solutions that do not require coordination between the individuals (e.g. voting)---through discussion, the sum becomes greater than the parts. However, this assumption is not irrefutable: anecdotal evidence of wasteful discussions abounds, and in our own experiments we find that over 30 of discussions are unproductive. We propose a framework for analyzing conversational dynamics in order to determine whether a given task-oriented discussion is worth having or not. We exploit conversational patterns reflecting the flow of ideas and the balance between the participants, as well as their linguistic choices. We apply this framework to conversations naturally occurring in an online collaborative world exploration game developed and deployed to support this research. Using this setting, we show that linguistic cues and conversational patterns extracted from the first 20 seconds of a team discussion are predictive of whether it will be a wasteful or a productive one.
Research on success in groups with more than two members is less common. model the grades of 27 group assignments from a class using measures of average entrainment, finding task-specific words to be a strong cue. shows how the affective balance expressed in correlates with performance on engineering tasks, in 30 teams of up to 4 students. In a related study the balance in the first 5 minutes of an interaction is found predictive of performance @cite_21 . None of the research we are aware of controls for initial skill or potential of the members.
@cite_21
1523179845 2100502494 1995708924 2150150736
The monitoring and support of university freshmen is considered very important at many educational institutions. In this paper we describe the results of the educational data mining case study aimed at predicting the Electrical Engineering (EE) students drop out after the first semester of their studies or even before they enter the study program as well as identifying success-factors specific to the EE program. Our experimental results show that rather simple and intuitive classifiers (decision trees) give a useful result with accuracies between 75 and 80 . Besides, we demonstrate the usefulness of cost-sensitive learning and thorough analysis of misclassifications, and show a few ways of further prediction improvement without having to collect additional data about the students. A critical factor in work group coordination, communication has been studied extensively. Yet, we are missing objective evidence of the relationship between successful coordination outcome and communication structures. Using data from IBM's Jazz™ project, we study communication structures of development teams with high coordination needs. We conceptualize coordination outcome by the result of their code integration build processes (successful or failed) and study team communication structures with social network measures. Our results indicate that developer communication plays an important role in the quality of software integrations. Although we found that no individual measure could indicate whether a build will fail or succeed, we leveraged the combination of communication structure measures into a predictive model that indicates whether an integration will fail. When used for five project teams, our predictive model yielded recall values between 55 and 75 , and precision values between 50 to 76 . Inspired by research on the role of affect in marital interactions, the authors examined whether affective interaction dynamics occurring within a 5-minute slice can predict pair programming performance. In a laboratory experiment with professional programmers, Group Hedonic Balance, a measure of the balance between positive and negative expressed affect, accounted for up to 35 of the variance in not only subjective but also objective pair programming performance. Implications include a new set of methods to study pair programming interactions and recommendations to improve pair programming performance. Signals from peripheral physiology (e.g., ECG, EMG, and GSR) in conjunction with machine learning techniques can be used for the automatic detection of affective states. The affect detector can be user-independent, where it is expected to generalize to novel users, or user-dependent, where it is tailored to a specific user. Previous studies have reported some success in detecting affect from physiological signals, but much of the work has focused on induced affect or acted expressions instead of contextually constrained spontaneous expressions of affect. This study addresses these issues by developing and evaluating user-independent and user-dependent physiology-based detectors of nonbasic affective states (e.g., boredom, confusion, curiosity) that were trained and validated on naturalistic data collected during interactions between 27 students and AutoTutor, an intelligent tutoring system with conversational dialogues. There is also no consensus on which techniques (i.e., feature selection or classification methods) work best for this type of data. Therefore, this study also evaluates the efficacy of affect detection using a host of feature selection and classification techniques on three physiological signals (ECG, EMG, and GSR) and their combinations. Two feature selection methods and nine classifiers were applied to the problem of recognizing eight affective states (boredom, confusion, curiosity, delight, flow -engagement, surprise, and neutral). The results indicated that the user-independent modeling approach was not feasible; however, a mean kappa score of 0.25 was obtained for user-dependent models that discriminated among the most frequent emotions. The results also indicated that k-nearest neighbor and Linear Bayes Normal Classifier (LBNC) classifiers yielded the best affect detection rates. Single channel ECG, EMG, and GSR and three-channel multimodal models were generally more diagnostic than two--channel models.