In order to anticipate dangerous events, like a collision, an agent needs to make long-term predictions. However, those are challenging due to uncertainties in internal and external variables and environment dynamics. A sensorimotor model is acquired online by the mobile robot using a state-of-the-art method that learns the optical flow distribution in images, both in space and time. The learnt model is used to anticipate the optical flow up to a given time horizon and to predict an imminent collision by using reinforcement learning. We demonstrate that multi-modal predictions reduce to simpler distributions once actions are taken into account.
In our work we are very interested in providing long-term predictions. One option is to learn a model based on a differential equation of how sensor values change @cite_1 . Then we can anticipate sensory states at arbitrary times by simulating such a system, although accuracy decreases quickly depending on model complexity. Unfortunately, this cannot be reused directly to predict collisions and cannot handle multi-modality unless using a mixture.
@cite_1
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Anticipating future situations from streaming sensor data is a key perception challenge for mobile robotics and automated vehicles. We address the problem of predicting the path of objects with multiple dynamic modes. The dynamics of such targets can be described by a Switching Linear Dynamical System (SLDS). However, predictions from this probabilistic model cannot anticipate when a change in dynamic mode will occur. We propose to extract various types of cues with computer vision to provide context on the target’s behavior, and incorporate these in a Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN). The DBN extends the SLDS by conditioning the mode transition probabilities on additional context states. We describe efficient online inference in this DBN for probabilistic path prediction, accounting for uncertainty in both measurements and target behavior. Our approach is illustrated on two scenarios in the Intelligent Vehicles domain concerning pedestrians and cyclists, so-called Vulnerable Road Users (VRUs). Here, context cues include the static environment of the VRU, its dynamic environment, and its observed actions. Experiments using stereo vision data from a moving vehicle demonstrate that the proposed approach results in more accurate path prediction than SLDS at the relevant short time horizon (1 s). It slightly outperforms a computationally more demanding state-of-the-art method. For autonomous agents to successfully operate in the real world, the ability to anticipate future scene states is a key competence. In real-world scenarios, future states become increasingly uncertain and multi-modal, particularly on long time horizons. Dropout based Bayesian inference provides a computationally tractable, theoretically well grounded approach to learn likely hypotheses models to deal with uncertain futures and make predictions that correspond well to observations -- are well calibrated. However, it turns out that such approaches fall short to capture complex real-world scenes, even falling behind in accuracy when compared to the plain deterministic approaches. This is because the used log-likelihood estimate discourages diversity. In this work, we propose a novel Bayesian formulation for anticipating future scene states which leverages synthetic likelihoods that encourage the learning of diverse models to accurately capture the multi-modal nature of future scene states. We show that our approach achieves accurate state-of-the-art predictions and calibrated probabilities through extensive experiments for scene anticipation on Cityscapes dataset. Moreover, we show that our approach generalizes across diverse tasks such as digit generation and precipitation forecasting. This paper is about long-term navigation in environments whose appearance changes over time - suddenly or gradually. We describe, implement and validate an approach which allows us to incrementally learn a model whose complexity varies naturally in accordance with variation of scene appearance. It allows us to leverage the state of the art in pose estimation to build over many runs, a world model of sufficient richness to allow simple localisation despite a large variation in conditions. As our robot repeatedly traverses its workspace, it accumulates distinct visual experiences that in concert, implicitly represent the scene variation - each experience captures a visual mode. When operating in a previously visited area, we continually try to localise in these previous experiences while simultaneously running an independent vision based pose estimation system. Failure to localise in a sufficient number of prior experiences indicates an insufficient model of the workspace and instigates the laying down of the live image sequence as a new distinct experience. In this way, over time we can capture the typical time varying appearance of an environment and the number of experiences required tends to a constant. Although we focus on vision as a primary sensor throughout, the ideas we present here are equally applicable to other sensor modalities. We demonstrate our approach working on a road vehicle operating over a three month period at different times of day, in different weather and lighting conditions. In all, we process over 136,000 frames captured from 37km of driving. This paper is about long-term navigation in environments whose appearance changes over time, suddenly or gradually. We describe, implement and validate an approach which allows us to incrementally learn a model whose complexity varies naturally in accordance with variation of scene appearance. It allows us to leverage the state of the art in pose estimation to build over many runs, a world model of sufficient richness to allow simple localisation despite a large variation in conditions. As our robot repeatedly traverses its workspace, it accumulates distinct visual experiences that in concert, implicitly represent the scene variation: each experience captures a visual mode. When operating in a previously visited area, we continually try to localise in these previous experiences while simultaneously running an independent vision-based pose estimation system. Failure to localise in a sufficient number of prior experiences indicates an insufficient model of the workspace and instigates the laying down of the live image sequence as a new distinct experience. In this way, over time we can capture the typical time-varying appearance of an environment and the number of experiences required tends to a constant. Although we focus on vision as a primary sensor throughout, the ideas we present here are equally applicable to other sensor modalities. We demonstrate our approach working on a road vehicle operating over a 3-month period at different times of day, in different weather and lighting conditions. We present extensive results analysing different aspects of the system and approach, in total processing over 136,000 frames captured from 37 km of driving.