We present a simple model of a non-equilibrium self-organizing market where asset prices are partially driven by investment decisions of a bounded-rational agent. The agent acts in a stochastic market environment driven by various exogenous "alpha" signals, agent's own actions (via market impact), and noise. Unlike traditional agent-based models, our agent aggregates all traders in the market, rather than being a representative agent. Therefore, it can be identified with a bounded-rational component of the market itself, providing a particular implementation of an Invisible Hand market mechanism. In such setting, market dynamics are modeled as a fictitious self-play of such bounded-rational market-agent in its adversarial stochastic environment. As rewards obtained by such self-playing market agent are not observed from market data, we formulate and solve a simple model of such market dynamics based on a neuroscience-inspired Bounded Rational Information Theoretic Inverse Reinforcement Learning (BRIT-IRL). This results in effective asset price dynamics with a non-linear mean reversion - which in our model is generated dynamically, rather than being postulated. We argue that our model can be used in a similar way to the Black-Litterman model. In particular, it represents, in a simple modeling framework, market views of common predictive signals, market impacts and implied optimal dynamic portfolio allocations, and can be used to assess values of private signals. Moreover, it allows one to quantify a "market-implied" optimal investment strategy, along with a measure of market rationality. Our approach is numerically light, and can be implemented using standard off-the-shelf software such as TensorFlow.
In this paper, we address this problem using model-based IRL. Our framework relies on a model for specification of one-step costs, market impact, and risk metrics (we will use quadratic risk measures going forward). On the side of IRL literature, our approach is based on Maximum Entropy IRL developed in @cite_13 , and extended to continuous-space formulation in @cite_60 . A closely related method is Iterative Quadratic-Gaussian Regulator (IQGR) of Todorov and Li @cite_33 .
@cite_13 @cite_33 @cite_60
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We present new algorithms for inverse optimal control (or inverse reinforcement learning, IRL) within the framework of linearly-solvable MDPs (LMDPs). Unlike most prior IRL algorithms which recover only the control policy of the expert, we recover the policy, the value function and the cost function. This is possible because here the cost and value functions are uniquely defined given the policy. Despite these special properties, we can handle a wide variety of problems such as the grid worlds popular in RL and most of the nonlinear problems arising in robotics and control engineering. Direct comparisons to prior IRL algorithms show that our new algorithms provide more information and are orders of magnitude faster. Indeed our fastest algorithm is the first inverse algorithm which does not require solving the forward problem; instead it performs unconstrained optimization of a convex and easy-to-compute log-likelihood. Our work also sheds light on the recent Maximum Entropy (MaxEntIRL) algorithm, which was defined in terms of density estimation and the corresponding forward problem was left unspecified. We show that MaxEntIRL is inverting an LMDP, using the less efficient of the algorithms derived here. Unlike all prior IRL algorithms which assume pre-existing features, we study feature adaptation and show that such adaptation is essential in continuous state spaces. We consider the problem of imitation learning where the examples, demonstrated by an expert, cover only a small part of a large state space. Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL) provides an ecient tool for generalizing the demonstration, based on the assumption that the expert is optimally acting in a Markov Decision Process (MDP). Most of the past work on IRL requires that a (near)optimal policy can be computed for dierent reward functions. However, this requirement can hardly be satised in systems with a large, or continuous, state space. In this paper, we propose a model-free IRL algorithm, where the relative entropy between the empirical distribution of the state-action trajectories under a baseline policy and their distribution under the learned policy is minimized by stochastic gradient descent. We compare this new approach to well-known IRL algorithms using learned MDP models. Empirical results on simulated car racing, gridworld and ball-in-a-cup problems show that our approach is able to learn good policies from a small number of demonstrations. We introduce a general framework for visual forecasting, which directly imitates visual sequences without additional supervision. As a result, our model can be applied at several semantic levels and does not require any domain knowledge or handcrafted features. We achieve this by formulating visual forecasting as an inverse reinforcement learning (IRL) problem, and directly imitate the dynamics in natural sequences from their raw pixel values. The key challenge is the high-dimensional and continuous state-action space that prohibits the application of previous IRL algorithms. We address this computational bottleneck by extending recent progress in model-free imitation with trainable deep feature representations, which (1) bypasses the exhaustive state-action pair visits in dynamic programming by using a dual formulation and (2) avoids explicit state sampling at gradient computation using a deep feature reparametrization. This allows us to apply IRL at scale and directly imitate the dynamics in high-dimensional continuous visual sequences from the raw pixel values. We evaluate our approach at three different level-of-abstraction, from low level pixels to higher level semantics: future frame generation, action anticipation, visual story forecasting. At all levels, our approach outperforms existing methods. In most algorithmic applications which compare two distributions, information theoretic distances are more natural than standard l p norms. In this paper we design streaming and sublinear time property testing algorithms for entropy and various information theoretic distances. posed the problem of property testing with respect to the Jensen-Shannon distance. We present optimal algorithms for estimating bounded, symmetric f-divergences (including the Jensen-Shannon divergence and the Hellinger distance) between distributions in various property testing frameworks. Along the way, we close a (log n) H gap between the upper and lower bounds for estimating entropy H, yielding an optimal algorithm over all values of the entropy. In a data stream setting (sublinear space), we give the first algorithm for estimating the entropy of a distribution. Our algorithm runs in polylogarithmic space and yields an asymptotic constant factor approximation scheme. An integral part of the algorithm is an interesting use of an F 0 (the number of distinct elements in a set) estimation algorithm; we also provide other results along the space time approximation tradeoff curve.Our results have interesting structural implications that connect sublinear time and space constrained algorithms. The mediating model is the random order streaming model, which assumes the input is a random permutation of a multiset and was first considered by Munro and Paterson in 1980. We show that any property testing algorithm in the combined oracle model for calculating a permutation invariant functions can be simulated in the random order model in a single pass. This addresses a question raised by regarding the relationship between property testing and stream algorithms. Further, we give a polylog-space PTAS for estimating the entropy of a one pass random order stream. This bound cannot be achieved in the combined oracle (generalized property testing) model.