We consider the performance modeling and evaluation of network systems powered with renewable energy sources such as solar and wind energy. Such energy sources largely depend on environmental conditions, which are hard to predict accurately. As such, it may only make sense to require the network systems to support a soft quality of service (QoS) guarantee, i.e., to guarantee a service requirement with a certain high probability. In this paper, we intend to build a solid mathematical foundation to help better understand the stochastic energy constraint and the inherent correlation between QoS and the uncertain energy supply. We utilize a calculus approach to model the cumulative amount of charged energy and the cumulative amount of consumed energy. We derive upper and lower bounds on the remaining energy level based on a stochastic energy charging rate and a stochastic energy discharging rate. By building the bridge between energy consumption and task execution (i.e., service), we study the QoS guarantee under the constraint of uncertain energy sources. We further show how performance bounds can be improved if some strong assumptions can be made.
In the stochastic group, Markov chain models have been used extensively. Susu @cite_4 use a discrete-time Markov chain in which states represent different energy levels. Some work @cite_5 uses a Markov chain model to capture the influence of clouds and wind on solar radiation intensity. Relevant to stochastic energy modeling, there are many efforts to predict a stochastic energy supply. Lu @cite_17 assess three prediction techniques: regression analysis, moving average, and exponential smoothing. Recas @cite_12 propose a weather-conditioned moving average () model, which adapts to long-term seasonal changes and short-term sudden weather changes. Moser @cite_20 introduce energy variability curves to predict the power provided by a harvesting unit.
@cite_4 @cite_5 @cite_12 @cite_20 @cite_17
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Realistic time-resolved data on occupant behaviour, presence and energy use are important inputs to various types of simulations, including performance of small-scale energy systems and buildings' indoor climate, use of lighting and energy demand. This paper presents a modelling framework for stochastic generation of high-resolution series of such data. The model generates both synthetic activity sequences of individual household members, including occupancy states, and domestic electricity demand based on these patterns. The activity-generating model, based on non-homogeneous Markov chains that are tuned to an extensive empirical time-use data set, creates a realistic spread of activities over time, down to a 1-min resolution. A detailed validation against measurements shows that modelled power demand data for individual households as well as aggregate demand for an arbitrary number of households are highly realistic in terms of end-use composition, annual and diurnal variations, diversity between households, short time-scale fluctuations and load coincidence. An important aim with the model development has been to maintain a sound balance between complexity and output quality. Although the model yields a high-quality output, the proposed model structure is uncomplicated in comparison to other available domestic load models. This paper presents a novel modeling and con- trol approach for the aggregation of large numbers of hetero- geneous thermostatically controlled loads, such as refrigera- tors, electric water heaters, and air conditioners, and their usage for Demand Response. Unlike traditional Demand Re- sponse methods that act on time scales of hours, this ap- proach is able to provide short-term (e.g., second-to-second) ancillary services, such as balancing and frequency control. A statistical modeling approach based on Markov Chains is used to describe the evolution of probability mass in a tem- perature state space. The Markov state transition matrix is identified using state information from the population of thermostatically controlled loads. A predictive controller is used to control the aggregate population of loads such that it tracks a signal. A simulation example shows the applicabil- ity of the approach to realistic systems, and includes a com- parison of control performance depending on available state information and controller parameterization. Abstract This paper proposes a stochastic and dynamic mixed-integer linear program (SD-MILP) for optimal coordinated bidding of a risk-averse profit-maximizing hydropower producer. The day-ahead, intra-day, and real-time markets are considered. To model and predict day-ahead, intra-day, and real-time prices, the Holt–Winter (HW) and the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) predictors are combined using a proposed Markov switch. The discrete behavior of intra-day and real-time prices is modeled as different Markov states. The proposed Markov-based HW–GARCH model with a standard scenario generation-reduction technique is used to capture the uncertainty in day-ahead, intra-day, and real-time prices. The time-dependent conditional value at risk (T-CVaR) is proposed to model the risk of trading in different considered markets. The convex combination of the expected profit and T-CVaR is used as the objective of SD-MILP. The Markov-based HW–GARCH is modeled in Matlab and the SD-MILP is coded in GAMS. The Markov-based HW–GARCH predictor and the SD-MILP are used to develop the bidding curve of a three-reservoir hydropower producer using the electricity prices from the Nordic power market. To further examine the developed models a seven-reservoir hydropower producer is also studied. For these two cases, the coordinated bidding curves are derived and discussed. Many vision problems have been formulated as energy minimization problems and there have been significant advances in energy minimization algorithms. The most widely-used energy minimization algorithms include graph cuts, belief propagation and tree-reweighted message passing. Although they have obtained good results, they are still unsatisfactory when it comes to more difficult MRF problems such as non-submodular energy functions, highly connected MRFs, and high-order clique potentials. There have also been other approaches, known as stochastic sampling-based algorithms, which include simulated annealing, Markov chain Monte Carlo and population based Markov chain Monte Carlo. They are applicable to any general energy models but they are usually slower than deterministic methods. In this paper, we propose new algorithms which elegantly combine stochastic and deterministic methods. Sampling-based methods are boosted by deterministic methods so that they can rapidly move to lower energy states and easily jump over energy barriers. In different point of view, the sampling-based method prevents deterministic methods from getting stuck at local minima. Consequently, a combination of both approaches substantially increases the quality of the solutions. We present a thorough analysis of the proposed methods in synthetic MRF problems by controlling the hardness of the problems. We also demonstrate experimental results for the photomontage problem which is the most difficult one among the standard MRF benchmark problems.