Ad exchanges are widely used in platforms for online display advertising. Autonomous agents operating in these exchanges must learn policies for interacting profitably with a diverse, continually changing, but unknown market. We consider this problem from the perspective of a publisher, strategically interacting with an advertiser through a posted price mechanism. The learning problem for this agent is made difficult by the fact that information is censored, i.e., the publisher knows if an impression is sold but no other quantitative information. We address this problem using the Harsanyi-Bellman Ad Hoc Coordination (HBA) algorithm [1, 3], which conceptualises this interaction in terms of a Stochastic Bayesian Game and arrives at optimal actions by best responding with respect to probabilistic beliefs maintained over a candidate set of opponent behaviour profiles. We adapt and apply HBA to the censored information setting of ad exchanges. Also, addressing the case of stochastic opponents, we devise a strategy based on a Kaplan-Meier estimator for opponent modelling. We evaluate the proposed method using simulations wherein we show that HBA-KM achieves substantially better competitive ratio and lower variance of return than baselines, including a Q-learning agent and a UCB-based online learning agent, and comparable to the offline optimal algorithm.
Another literature that is closely relevant pertains to learning to interact in multiagent domains, with limited or no prior coordination. Related work includes @cite_7 @cite_6 @cite_13 . A key concept arising from this literature is that of modelling the opponent in terms of a hypothesis space of policies, that in a certain sense approximate the space from which that agent herself chooses the true policy.
@cite_13 @cite_6 @cite_7
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Creating coordinated multiagent policies in environments with uncertainty is a challenging problem, which can be greatly simplified if the coordination needs are known to be limited to specific parts of the state space, as previous work has successfully shown. In this work, we assume that such needs are unknown and we investigate coordination learning in multiagent settings. We contribute a reinforcement learning based algorithm in which independent decision-makers agents learn both individual policies and when and how to coordinate. We focus on problems in which the interaction between the agents is sparse, exploiting this property to minimize the coupling of the learning processes for the different agents. We introduce a two-layer extension of Q-learning, in which we augment the action space of each agent with a coordination action that uses information from other agents to decide the correct action. Our results show that our agents learn both to act coordinate and to act independently, in the different regions of the space where they need to, and need not to, coordinate, respectively. Learning in multiagent systems suffers from the fact that both the state and the action space scale exponentially with the number of agents. In this paper we are interested in using Q-learning to learn the coordinated actions of a group of cooperative agents, using a sparse representation of the joint state-action space of the agents. We first examine a compact representation in which the agents need to explicitly coordinate their actions only in a predefined set of states. Next, we use a coordination-graph approach in which we represent the Q-values by value rules that specify the coordination dependencies of the agents at particular states. We show how Q-learning can be efficiently applied to learn a coordinated policy for the agents in the above framework. We demonstrate the proposed method on the predator-prey domain, and we compare it with other related multiagent Q-learning methods. The key challenge in multiagent learning is learning a best response to the behaviour of other agents, which may be non-stationary: if the other agents adapt their strategy as well, the learning target moves. Disparate streams of research have approached non-stationarity from several angles, which make a variety of implicit assumptions that make it hard to keep an overview of the state of the art and to validate the innovation and significance of new works. This survey presents a coherent overview of work that addresses opponent-induced non-stationarity with tools from game theory, reinforcement learning and multi-armed bandits. Further, we reflect on the principle approaches how algorithms model and cope with this non-stationarity, arriving at a new framework and five categories (in increasing order of sophistication): ignore, forget, respond to target models, learn models, and theory of mind. A wide range of state-of-the-art algorithms is classified into a taxonomy, using these categories and key characteristics of the environment (e.g., observability) and adaptation behaviour of the opponents (e.g., smooth, abrupt). To clarify even further we present illustrative variations of one domain, contrasting the strengths and limitations of each category. Finally, we discuss in which environments the different approaches yield most merit, and point to promising avenues of future research. Creating coordinated multiagent policies in environments with uncertainty is a challenging problem, which can be greatly simplified if the coordination needs are known to be limited to specific parts of the state space. In this work, we explore how such local interactions can simplify coordination in multiagent systems. We focus on problems in which the interaction between the agents is sparse and contribute a new decision-theoretic model for decentralized sparse-interaction multiagent systems, Dec-SIMDPs, that explicitly distinguishes the situations in which the agents in the team must coordinate from those in which they can act independently. We relate our new model to other existing models such as MMDPs and Dec-MDPs. We then propose a solution method that takes advantage of the particular structure of Dec-SIMDPs and provide theoretical error bounds on the quality of the obtained solution. Finally, we show a reinforcement learning algorithm in which independent agents learn both individual policies and when and how to coordinate. We illustrate the application of the algorithms throughout the paper in several multiagent navigation scenarios.