Scientists often run experiments to distinguish competing theories. This requires patience, rigor, and ingenuity - there is often a large space of possible experiments one could run. But we need not comb this space by hand - if we represent our theories as formal models and explicitly declare the space of experiments, we can automate the search for good experiments, looking for those with high expected information gain. Here, we present a general and principled approach to experiment design based on probabilistic programming languages (PPLs). PPLs offer a clean separation between declaring problems and solving them, which means that the scientist can automate experiment design by simply declaring her model and experiment spaces in the PPL without having to worry about the details of calculating information gain. We demonstrate our system in two case studies drawn from cognitive psychology, where we use it to design optimal experiments in the domains of sequence prediction and categorization. We find strong empirical validation that our automatically designed experiments were indeed optimal. We conclude by discussing a number of interesting questions for future research.
The basic intuition behind OED---to find experiments that maximize some expected measure of informativeness---has been independently discovered in a number of fields, including physics @cite_7 , chemistry @cite_2 , biology @cite_12 @cite_4 , psychology @cite_9 , statistics @cite_0 , and machine learning @cite_8 .
@cite_4 @cite_7 @cite_8 @cite_9 @cite_0 @cite_2 @cite_12
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We consider the Bayesian active learning and experimental design problem, where the goal is to learn the value of some unknown target variable through a sequence of informative, noisy tests. In contrast to prior work, we focus on the challenging, yet practically relevant setting where test outcomes can be conditionally dependent given the hidden target variable. Under such assumptions, common heuristics, such as greedily performing tests that maximize the reduction in uncertainty of the target, often perform poorly. In this paper, we propose ECED, a novel, computationally efficient active learning algorithm, and prove strong theoretical guarantees that hold with correlated, noisy tests. Rather than directly optimizing the prediction error, at each step, ECED picks the test that maximizes the gain in a surrogate objective, which takes into account the dependencies between tests. Our analysis relies on an information-theoretic auxiliary function to track the progress of ECED, and utilizes adaptive submodularity to attain the near-optimal bound. We demonstrate strong empirical performance of ECED on two problem instances, including a Bayesian experimental design task intended to distinguish among economic theories of how people make risky decisions, and an active preference learning task via pairwise comparisons. We show that, under a standard hardness assumption, there is no computationally efficient algorithm that given @math samples from an unknown distribution can give valid answers to @math adaptively chosen statistical queries. A statistical query asks for the expectation of a predicate over the underlying distribution, and an answer to a statistical query is valid if it is "close" to the correct expectation over the distribution. Our result stands in stark contrast to the well known fact that exponentially many statistical queries can be answered validly and efficiently if the queries are chosen non-adaptively (no query may depend on the answers to previous queries). Moreover, a recent work by shows how to accurately answer exponentially many adaptively chosen statistical queries via a computationally inefficient algorithm; and how to answer a quadratic number of adaptive queries via a computationally efficient algorithm. The latter result implies that our result is tight up to a linear factor in @math Conceptually, our result demonstrates that achieving statistical validity alone can be a source of computational intractability in adaptive settings. For example, in the modern large collaborative research environment, data analysts typically choose a particular approach based on previous findings. False discovery occurs if a research finding is supported by the data but not by the underlying distribution. While the study of preventing false discovery in Statistics is decades old, to the best of our knowledge our result is the first to demonstrate a computational barrier. In particular, our result suggests that the perceived difficulty of preventing false discovery in today's collaborative research environment may be inherent. Abstract In this article statistical inference is viewed as information processing involving input information and output information. After introducing information measures for the input and output information, an information criterion functional is formulated and optimized to obtain an optimal information processing rule (IPR). For the particular information measures and criterion functional adopted, it is shown that Bayes's theorem is the optimal IPR. This optimal IPR is shown to be 100 efficient in the sense that its use leads to the output information being exactly equal to the given input information. Also, the analysis links Bayes's theorem to maximum-entropy considerations. The most basic assumption used in statistical learning theory is that training data and test data are drawn from the same underlying distribution. Unfortunately, in many applications, the "in-domain" test data is drawn from a distribution that is related, but not identical, to the "out-of-domain" distribution of the training data. We consider the common case in which labeled out-of-domain data is plentiful, but labeled in-domain data is scarce. We introduce a statistical formulation of this problem in terms of a simple mixture model and present an instantiation of this framework to maximum entropy classifiers and their linear chain counterparts. We present efficient inference algorithms for this special case based on the technique of conditional expectation maximization. Our experimental results show that our approach leads to improved performance on three real world tasks on four different data sets from the natural language processing domain.