Understanding political phenomena requires measuring the political preferences of society. We introduce a model based on mixtures of spatial voting models that infers the underlying distribution of political preferences of voters with only voting records of the population and political positions of candidates in an election. Beyond offering a cost-effective alternative to surveys, this method projects the political preferences of voters and candidates into a shared latent preference space. This projection allows us to directly compare the preferences of the two groups, which is desirable for political science but difficult with traditional survey methods. After validating the aggregated-level inferences of this model against results of related work and on simple prediction tasks, we apply the model to better understand the phenomenon of political polarization in the Texas, New York, and Ohio electorates. Taken at face value, inferences drawn from our model indicate that the electorates in these states may be less bimodal than the distribution of candidates, but that the electorates are comparatively more extreme in their variance. We conclude with a discussion of limitations of our method and potential future directions for research.
Within the computer science field, our work falls closest to a growing line of research dedicated to developing novel machine learning models for computational social science. Machine learning researchers in this area have not yet addressed the exact problem we study in our work, to the best of our knowledge. However, they have been interested in similar problems and related classes of models (e.g. @cite_13 @cite_3 @cite_1 @cite_22 ). More tangentially, a large body of work in computer science has been dedicated to drawing inferences from public observational data. Some researchers have suggested using social media data to better understand public opinion @cite_21 , while others have developed models based on inconsistent user behavior to infer their implicit preferences @cite_2 .
@cite_22 @cite_21 @cite_1 @cite_3 @cite_2 @cite_13
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We show how machine learning and inference can be harnessed to leverage the complementary strengths of humans and computational agents to solve crowdsourcing tasks. We construct a set of Bayesian predictive models from data and describe how the models operate within an overall crowd-sourcing architecture that combines the efforts of people and machine vision on the task of classifying celestial bodies defined within a citizens' science project named Galaxy Zoo. We show how learned probabilistic models can be used to fuse human and machine contributions and to predict the behaviors of workers. We employ multiple inferences in concert to guide decisions on hiring and routing workers to tasks so as to maximize the efficiency of large-scale crowdsourcing processes based on expected utility. When analysing human activities using data mining or machine learning techniques, it can be useful to infer properties such as the gender or age of the people involved. This paper focuses on the sub-problem of gender recognition, which has been studied extensively in the literature, with two main problems remaining unsolved: how to improve the accuracy on real-world face images, and how to generalise the models to perform well on new datasets. We address these problems by collecting five million weakly labelled face images, and performing three different experiments, investigating: the performance difference between convolutional neural networks (CNNs) of differing depths and a support vector machine approach using local binary pattern features on the same training data, the effect of contextual information on classification accuracy, and the ability of convolutional neural networks and large amounts of training data to generalise to cross-database classification. We report record-breaking results on both the Labeled Faces in the Wild (LFW) dataset, achieving an accuracy of 98.90 , and the Images of Groups (GROUPS) dataset, achieving an accuracy of 91.34 for cross-database gender classification. The rapid development of social media brings about vast user generated content. Computational cyber-psychology, an interdisciplinary subject area, employs machine learning approaches to explore underlying psychological patterns. Our research aims at identifying users’ mental health status through their social media behavior. We collected both users’ social media data and mental health data from the most popular Chinses microblog service provider, Sina Weibo. By extracting linguistic and behavior features, and applying machine learning algorithms, we made preliminary exploration to identify users’ mental health status automaticly, which previously is mainly measured by well-designed psychological questionnaire. Our classification model achieves the accuracy of 72 , and the continous predicting model achieved correlation of 0.3 with questionnaire based score. This paper intends to provide some insights of a scientific problem: how likely one's interests can be inferred from his her social connections -- friends, friends' friends, 3-degree friends, etc? Is "Birds of a Feather Flocks Together" a norm? We do not consider the friending activity on online social networking sites. Instead, we conduct this study by implementing a privacy-preserving large distribute social sensor system in a large global IT company to capture the multifaceted activities of 30,000+ people, including communications (e.g., emails, instant messaging, etc) and Web 2.0 activities (e.g., social bookmarking, file sharing, blogging, etc). These activities occupy the majority of employees' time in work, and thus, provide a high quality approximation to the real social connections of employees in the workplace context. In addition to such "informal networks", we investigated the "formal networks", such as their hierarchical structure, as well as the demographic profile data such as geography, job role, self-specified interests, etc. Because user ID matching across multiple sources on the Internet is very difficult, and most user activity logs have to be anonymized before they are processed, no prior studies could collect comparable multifaceted activity data of individuals. That makes this study unique. In this paper, we present a technique to predict the inference quality by utilizing (1) network analysis and network autocorrelation modeling of informal and formal networks, and (2) regression models to predict user interest inference quality from network characteristics. We verify our findings with experiments on both implicit user interests indicated by the content of communications or Web 2.0 activities, and explicit user interests specified in user profiles. We demonstrate that the inference quality prediction increases the inference quality of implicit interests by 42.8 , and inference quality of explicit interests by up to 101 .