Composition and parametrisation of multicomponent predictive systems (MCPSs) consisting of chains of data transformation steps is a challenging task. This paper is concerned with theoretical considerations and extensive experimental analysis for automating the task of building such predictive systems. In the theoretical part of the paper, we first propose to adopt the Well-handled and Acyclic Workflow (WA-WF) Petri net as a formal representation of MCPSs. We then define the optimisation problem in which the search space consists of suitably parametrised directed acyclic graphs (i.e. WA-WFs) forming the sought MCPS solutions. In the experimental analysis we focus on examining the impact of considerably extending the search space resulting from incorporating multiple sequential data cleaning and preprocessing steps in the process of composing optimised MCPSs, and the quality of the solutions found. In a range of extensive experiments three different optimisation strategies are used to automatically compose MCPSs for 21 publicly available datasets and 7 datasets from real chemical processes. The diversity of the composed MCPSs found is an indication that fully and automatically exploiting different combinations of data cleaning and preprocessing techniques is possible and highly beneficial for different predictive models. Our findings can have a major impact on development of high quality predictive models as well as their maintenance and scalability aspects needed in modern applications and deployment scenarios.
The CASH problem can be approached in different ways. One example is a grid search, i.e. an exhaustive search over all the possible combinations of discretized parameters. Such technique can however be computationally prohibitive in large search spaces or with big datasets. Instead, a simpler mechanism like random search, where the search space is randomly explored in a limited amount of time, has been shown to be more effective in high-dimensional spaces @cite_41 .
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The multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem features the classical tradeoff between exploration and exploitation. The input specifies several stochastic arms which evolve with each pull, and the goal is to maximize the expected reward after a fixed budget of pulls. The celebrated work of , surveyed in [8], presumes a condition on the arms called the martingale assumption. In [9], A. obtained an LP-based 1 48-approximation for the problem with the martingale assumption removed. We improve the algorithm to a 4 27-approximation, with simpler analysis. Our algorithm also generalizes to the case of MAB superprocesses with (stochastic) multi-period actions. This generalization captures the framework introduced by Guha and Munagala in [11], and yields new results for their budgeted learning problems. Also, we obtain a (1 2 -- e)-approximation for the variant of MAB where preemption (playing an arm, switching to another arm, then coming back to the first arm) is not allowed. This contains the stochastic knapsack problem of Dean, Goemans, and Vondrak in [6] with correlated rewards, where we are given a knapsack of fixed size, and a set of jobs each with a joint distribution for its size and reward. The actual size and reward of a job can only be discovered in real-time as it is being scheduled, and the objective is to maximize expected reward before the knapsack size is exhausted. Our (1 2 -- e)-approximation improves the 1 16 and 1 8 approximations in [9] for correlated stochastic knapsack with cancellation and no cancellation, respectively, providing to our knowledge the first tight algorithm for these problems that matches the integrality gap of 2. We sample probabilities from an exponential-sized dynamic programming solution, whose existence is guaranteed by an LP projection argument. We hope this technique can also be applied to other dynamic programming problems which can be projected down onto a small LP. Grid search and manual search are the most widely used strategies for hyper-parameter optimization. This paper shows empirically and theoretically that randomly chosen trials are more efficient for hyper-parameter optimization than trials on a grid. Empirical evidence comes from a comparison with a large previous study that used grid search and manual search to configure neural networks and deep belief networks. Compared with neural networks configured by a pure grid search, we find that random search over the same domain is able to find models that are as good or better within a small fraction of the computation time. Granting random search the same computational budget, random search finds better models by effectively searching a larger, less promising configuration space. Compared with deep belief networks configured by a thoughtful combination of manual search and grid search, purely random search over the same 32-dimensional configuration space found statistically equal performance on four of seven data sets, and superior performance on one of seven. A Gaussian process analysis of the function from hyper-parameters to validation set performance reveals that for most data sets only a few of the hyper-parameters really matter, but that different hyper-parameters are important on different data sets. This phenomenon makes grid search a poor choice for configuring algorithms for new data sets. Our analysis casts some light on why recent "High Throughput" methods achieve surprising success--they appear to search through a large number of hyper-parameters because most hyper-parameters do not matter much. We anticipate that growing interest in large hierarchical models will place an increasing burden on techniques for hyper-parameter optimization; this work shows that random search is a natural baseline against which to judge progress in the development of adaptive (sequential) hyper-parameter optimization algorithms. It has long been assumed that high dimensional continuous control problems cannot be solved effectively by discretizing individual dimensions of the action space due to the exponentially large number of bins over which policies would have to be learned. In this paper, we draw inspiration from the recent success of sequence-to-sequence models for structured prediction problems to develop policies over discretized spaces. Central to this method is the realization that complex functions over high dimensional spaces can be modeled by neural networks that predict one dimension at a time. Specifically, we show how Q-values and policies over continuous spaces can be modeled using a next step prediction model over discretized dimensions. With this parameterization, it is possible to both leverage the compositional structure of action spaces during learning, as well as compute maxima over action spaces (approximately). On a simple example task we demonstrate empirically that our method can perform global search, which effectively gets around the local optimization issues that plague DDPG. We apply the technique to off-policy (Q-learning) methods and show that our method can achieve the state-of-the-art for off-policy methods on several continuous control tasks. The problem of assessing the significance of data mining results on high-dimensional 0-1 data sets has been studied extensively in the literature. For problems such as mining frequent sets and finding correlations, significance testing can be done by, e.g., chi-square tests, or many other methods. However, the results of such tests depend only on the specific attributes and not on the dataset as a whole. Moreover, the tests are more difficult to apply to sets of patterns or other complex results of data mining. In this paper, we consider a simple randomization technique that deals with this shortcoming. The approach consists of producing random datasets that have the same row and column margins with the given dataset, computing the results of interest on the randomized instances, and comparing them against the results on the actual data. This randomization technique can be used to assess the results of many different types of data mining algorithms, such as frequent sets, clustering, and rankings. To generate random datasets with given margins, we use variations of a Markov chain approach, which is based on a simple swap operation. We give theoretical results on the efficiency of different randomization methods, and apply the swap randomization method to several well-known datasets. Our results indicate that for some datasets the structure discovered by the data mining algorithms is a random artifact, while for other datasets the discovered structure conveys meaningful information.