The objective of this work is to take advantage of deep neural networks in order to make next day crime count predictions in a fine-grain city partition. We make predictions using Chicago and Portland crime data, which is augmented with additional datasets covering weather, census data, and public transportation. The crime counts are broken into 10 bins and our model predicts the most likely bin for a each spatial region at a daily level. We train this data using increasingly complex neural network structures, including variations that are suited to the spatial and temporal aspects of the crime prediction problem. With our best model we are able to predict the correct bin for overall crime count with 75.6 and 65.3 accuracy for Chicago and Portland, respectively. The results show the efficacy of neural networks for the prediction problem and the value of using external datasets in addition to standard crime data.
Crime as a problem of course has both spatial and temporal dimensions, and some components of these were not accounted for in previous work. In the work by @cite_12 , the spatial dependence was captured through feature engineering, and many works have used time series for temporal dependence @cite_12 @cite_9 . This type of information can be covered better by certain network architectures; recurrent networks are used to handle temporal information and convolutional networks for local spatial information. Our main model does utilize both convolution and recurrent layers to capture the temporal and spatial aspects of the data.
@cite_9 @cite_12
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In this paper, we present an end-to-end approach to simultaneously learn spatio-temporal features and corresponding similarity metric for video-based person re-identification. Given the video sequence of a person, features from each frame that are extracted from all levels of a deep convolutional network can preserve a higher spatial resolution from which we can model finer motion patterns. These low-level visual percepts are leveraged into a variant of recurrent model to characterize the temporal variation between time-steps. Features from all time-steps are then summarized using temporal pooling to produce an overall feature representation for the complete sequence. The deep convolutional network, recurrent layer, and the temporal pooling are jointly trained to extract comparable hidden-unit representations from input pair of time series to compute their corresponding similarity value. The proposed framework combines time series modeling and metric learning to jointly learn relevant features and a good similarity measure between time sequences of person. Experiments demonstrate that our approach achieves the state-of-the-art performance for video-based person re-identification on iLIDS-VID and PRID 2011, the two primary public datasets for this purpose. Models based on deep convolutional networks have dominated recent image interpretation tasks; we investigate whether models which are also recurrent, or “temporally deep”, are effective for tasks involving sequences, visual and otherwise. We develop a novel recurrent convolutional architecture suitable for large-scale visual learning which is end-to-end trainable, and demonstrate the value of these models on benchmark video recognition tasks, image description and retrieval problems, and video narration challenges. In contrast to current models which assume a fixed spatio-temporal receptive field or simple temporal averaging for sequential processing, recurrent convolutional models are “doubly deep” in that they can be compositional in spatial and temporal “layers”. Such models may have advantages when target concepts are complex and or training data are limited. Learning long-term dependencies is possible when nonlinearities are incorporated into the network state updates. Long-term RNN models are appealing in that they directly can map variable-length inputs (e.g., video frames) to variable length outputs (e.g., natural language text) and can model complex temporal dynamics; yet they can be optimized with backpropagation. Our recurrent long-term models are directly connected to modern visual convnet models and can be jointly trained to simultaneously learn temporal dynamics and convolutional perceptual representations. Our results show such models have distinct advantages over state-of-the-art models for recognition or generation which are separately defined and or optimized. Models based on deep convolutional networks have dominated recent image interpretation tasks; we investigate whether models which are also recurrent, or "temporally deep", are effective for tasks involving sequences, visual and otherwise. We develop a novel recurrent convolutional architecture suitable for large-scale visual learning which is end-to-end trainable, and demonstrate the value of these models on benchmark video recognition tasks, image description and retrieval problems, and video narration challenges. In contrast to current models which assume a fixed spatio-temporal receptive field or simple temporal averaging for sequential processing, recurrent convolutional models are "doubly deep"' in that they can be compositional in spatial and temporal "layers". Such models may have advantages when target concepts are complex and or training data are limited. Learning long-term dependencies is possible when nonlinearities are incorporated into the network state updates. Long-term RNN models are appealing in that they directly can map variable-length inputs (e.g., video frames) to variable length outputs (e.g., natural language text) and can model complex temporal dynamics; yet they can be optimized with backpropagation. Our recurrent long-term models are directly connected to modern visual convnet models and can be jointly trained to simultaneously learn temporal dynamics and convolutional perceptual representations. Our results show such models have distinct advantages over state-of-the-art models for recognition or generation which are separately defined and or optimized. Spatial and temporal contextual information plays a key role for analyzing user behaviors, and is helpful for predicting where he or she will go next. With the growing ability of collecting information, more and more temporal and spatial contextual information is collected in systems, and the location prediction problem becomes crucial and feasible. Some works have been proposed to address this problem, but they all have their limitations. Factorizing Personalized Markov Chain (FPMC) is constructed based on a strong independence assumption among different factors, which limits its performance. Tensor Factorization (TF) faces the cold start problem in predicting future actions. Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) model shows promising performance comparing with PFMC and TF, but all these methods have problem in modeling continuous time interval and geographical distance. In this paper, we extend RNN and propose a novel method called Spatial Temporal Recurrent Neural Networks (ST-RNN). ST-RNN can model local temporal and spatial contexts in each layer with time-specific transition matrices for different time intervals and distance-specific transition matrices for different geographical distances. Experimental results show that the proposed ST-RNN model yields significant improvements over the competitive compared methods on two typical datasets, i.e., Global Terrorism Database (GTD) and Gowalla dataset.