Machine Translation Quality Estimation is a notoriously difficult task, which lessens its usefulness in real-world translation environments. Such scenarios can be improved if quality predictions are accompanied by a measure of uncertainty. However, models in this task are traditionally evaluated only in terms of point estimate metrics, which do not take prediction uncertainty into account. We investigate probabilistic methods for Quality Estimation that can provide well-calibrated uncertainty estimates and evaluate them in terms of their full posterior predictive distributions. We also show how this posterior information can be useful in an asymmetric risk scenario, which aims to capture typical situations in translation workflows.
Asymmetric loss functions are common in the econometrics literature and were studied by and , among others. Besides the AL and the linex, another well studied loss is the asymmetric quadratic, which in turn relates to the concept of expectiles @cite_21 . This loss generalises the commonly used squared error loss. In terms of applications, gives an example in real estate assessment, where the consequences of under- and over-assessment are usually different depending on the specific scenario. An engineering example is given by in the context of dam construction, where an underestimate of peak water level is much more serious than an overestimate. Such real-world applications guided many developments in this field: we believe that translation and other language processing scenarios which rely on NLP technologies can heavily benefit from these advancements.
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Surrogate losses underlie numerous state-of-the-art binary classification algorithms, such as support vector machines and boosting. The impact of a surrogate loss on the statistical performance of an algorithm is well-understood in symmetric classification settings, where the misclassification costs are equal and the loss is a margin loss. In particular, classification-calibrated losses are known to imply desirable properties such as consistency. While numerous efforts have been made to extend surrogate loss-based algorithms to asymmetric settings, to deal with unequal misclassification costs or training data imbalance, considerably less attention has been paid to whether the modified loss is still calibrated in some sense. This article extends the theory of classification-calibrated losses to asymmetric problems. As in the symmetric case, it is shown that calibrated asymmetric surrogate losses give rise to excess risk bounds, which control the expected misclassification cost in terms of the excess surrogate risk. This theory is illustrated on the class of uneven margin losses, and the uneven hinge, squared error, exponential, and sigmoid losses are treated in detail. When training the parameters for a natural language system, one would prefer to minimize 1-best loss (error) on an evaluation set. Since the error surface for many natural language problems is piecewise constant and riddled with local minima, many systems instead optimize log-likelihood, which is conveniently differentiable and convex. We propose training instead to minimize the expected loss, or risk. We define this expectation using a probability distribution over hypotheses that we gradually sharpen (anneal) to focus on the 1-best hypothesis. Besides the linear loss functions used in previous work, we also describe techniques for optimizing nonlinear functions such as precision or the BLEU metric. We present experiments training log-linear combinations of models for dependency parsing and for machine translation. In machine translation, annealed minimum risk training achieves significant improvements in BLEU over standard minimum error training. We also show improvements in labeled dependency parsing. The choice of the loss function is critical in extreme multi-label learning where the objective is to annotate each data point with the most relevant subset of labels from an extremely large label set. Unfortunately, existing loss functions, such as the Hamming loss, are unsuitable for learning, model selection, hyperparameter tuning and performance evaluation. This paper addresses the issue by developing propensity scored losses which: (a) prioritize predicting the few relevant labels over the large number of irrelevant ones; (b) do not erroneously treat missing labels as irrelevant but instead provide unbiased estimates of the true loss function even when ground truth labels go missing under arbitrary probabilistic label noise models; and (c) promote the accurate prediction of infrequently occurring, hard to predict, but rewarding tail labels. Another contribution is the development of algorithms which efficiently scale to extremely large datasets with up to 9 million labels, 70 million points and 2 million dimensions and which give significant improvements over the state-of-the-art. This paper's results also apply to tagging, recommendation and ranking which are the motivating applications for extreme multi-label learning. They generalize previous attempts at deriving unbiased losses under the restrictive assumption that labels go missing uniformly at random from the ground truth. Furthermore, they provide a sound theoretical justification for popular label weighting heuristics used to recommend rare items. Finally, they demonstrate that the proposed contributions align with real world applications by achieving superior clickthrough rates on sponsored search advertising in Bing. In discriminative machine learning one is interested in training a system to optimize a certain desired measure of performance, or loss. In binary classification one typically tries to minimizes the error rate. But in structured prediction each task often has its own measure of performance such as the BLEU score in machine translation or the intersection-over-union score in PASCAL segmentation. The most common approaches to structured prediction, structural SVMs and CRFs, do not minimize the task loss: the former minimizes a surrogate loss with no guarantees for task loss and the latter minimizes log loss independent of task loss. The main contribution of this paper is a theorem stating that a certain perceptron-like learning rule, involving features vectors derived from loss-adjusted inference, directly corresponds to the gradient of task loss. We give empirical results on phonetic alignment of a standard test set from the TIMIT corpus, which surpasses all previously reported results on this problem.