Esports has emerged as a popular genre for players as well as spectators, supporting a global entertainment industry. Esports analytics has evolved to address the requirement for data-driven feedback, and is focused on cyber-athlete evaluation, strategy and prediction. Towards the latter, previous work has used match data from a variety of player ranks from hobbyist to professional players. However, professional players have been shown to behave differently than lower ranked players. Given the comparatively limited supply of professional data, a key question is thus whether mixed-rank match datasets can be used to create data-driven models which predict winners in professional matches and provide a simple in-game statistic for viewers and broadcasters. Here we show that, although there is a slightly reduced accuracy, mixed-rank datasets can be used to predict the outcome of professional matches, with suitably optimized configurations.
There is a wide variety of machine learning algorithms for supervised win prediction in . The difference lies in how the algorithms build their models and how those models function internally. Much previous work used logistic regression (LR) @cite_5 @cite_6 @cite_14 @cite_7 @cite_13 @cite_4 . Kalyanaraman2015ToWO compared LR and Random Forests (RF) and found a tendency for RFs to over-fit the training data so they enhanced LR with genetic algorithms. In contrast, johansson2015result found RF had the highest prediction accuracy and that kNN (along with support vector machines) were unsuitable due to the excessive training time (over 12 hours on 15,146 files). rioult2014mining ; yang2014identifying used decision trees which have the twin advantages of being simple and allowing rules to be extracted while Semenov2017 used both Factorization Machines and extreme gradient boosting (Random Forests with meta-learning).
@cite_14 @cite_4 @cite_7 @cite_6 @cite_5 @cite_13
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Random Forests (RFs) are frequently used in many computer vision and machine learning applications. Their popularity is mainly driven by their high computational efficiency during both training and evaluation while achieving state-of-the-art results. However, in most applications RFs are used off-line. This limits their usability for many practical problems, for instance, when training data arrives sequentially or the underlying distribution is continuously changing. In this paper, we propose a novel on-line random forest algorithm. We combine ideas from on-line bagging, extremely randomized forests and propose an on-line decision tree growing procedure. Additionally, we add a temporal weighting scheme for adaptively discarding some trees based on their out-of-bag-error in given time intervals and consequently growing of new trees. The experiments on common machine learning data sets show that our algorithm converges to the performance of the off-line RF. Additionally, we conduct experiments for visual tracking, where we demonstrate real-time state-of-the-art performance on well-known scenarios and show good performance in case of occlusions and appearance changes where we outperform trackers based on on-line boosting. Finally, we demonstrate the usability of on-line RFs on the task of interactive real-time segmentation. In recent years, machine learning research has gained momentum: new developments in the field of deep learning allow for multiple levels of abstraction and are starting to supersede well-known and powerful tree-based techniques mainly operating on the original feature space. All these methods can be applied to various fields, including finance. This paper implements and analyzes the effectiveness of deep neural networks (DNN), gradient-boosted-trees (GBT), random forests (RAF), and several ensembles of these methods in the context of statistical arbitrage. Each model is trained on lagged returns of all stocks in the S&P 500, after elimination of survivor bias. From 1992 to 2015, daily one-day-ahead trading signals are generated based on the probability forecast of a stock to outperform the general market. The highest k probabilities are converted into long and the lowest k probabilities into short positions, thus censoring the less certain middle part of the ranking. Empirical findings are promising. A simple, equal-weighted ensemble (ENS1) consisting of one deep neural network, one gradient-boosted tree, and one random forest produces out-of-sample returns exceeding 0.45 percent per day for k=10, prior to transaction costs. Irrespective of the fact that profits are declining in recent years, our findings pose a severe challenge to the semi-strong form of market efficiency. We propose to prune a random forest (RF) for resource-constrained prediction. We first construct a RF and then prune it to optimize expected feature cost & accuracy. We pose pruning RFs as a novel 0-1 integer program with linear constraints that encourages feature re-use. We establish total unimodularity of the constraint set to prove that the corresponding LP relaxation solves the original integer program. We then exploit connections to combinatorial optimization and develop an efficient primal-dual algorithm, scalable to large datasets. In contrast to our bottom-up approach, which benefits from good RF initialization, conventional methods are top-down acquiring features based on their utility value and is generally intractable, requiring heuristics. Empirically, our pruning algorithm outperforms existing state-of-the-art resource-constrained algorithms. Attentional, RNN-based encoder-decoder models for abstractive summarization have achieved good performance on short input and output sequences. For longer documents and summaries however these models often include repetitive and incoherent phrases. We introduce a neural network model with a novel intra-attention that attends over the input and continuously generated output separately, and a new training method that combines standard supervised word prediction and reinforcement learning (RL). Models trained only with supervised learning often exhibit "exposure bias" - they assume ground truth is provided at each step during training. However, when standard word prediction is combined with the global sequence prediction training of RL the resulting summaries become more readable. We evaluate this model on the CNN Daily Mail and New York Times datasets. Our model obtains a 41.16 ROUGE-1 score on the CNN Daily Mail dataset, an improvement over previous state-of-the-art models. Human evaluation also shows that our model produces higher quality summaries.