We propose an algorithm for simultaneously detecting and locating changepoints in a time series, and a framework for predicting the distribution of the next point in the series. The kernel of the algorithm is a system of equations that computes, for each index i, the probability that the last (most recent) change point occurred at i. We evaluate this algorithm by applying it to the change point detection problem and comparing it to the generalized likelihood ratio (GLR) algorithm. We find that our algorithm is as good as GLR, or better, over a wide range of scenarios, and that the advantage increases as the signal-to-noise ratio decreases.
In the context of large databases, Kifer, Ben-David and Gehrke propose an algorithm for detecting changes in data streams @cite_14 . It is based on a two-window paradigm, in which the distribution of values in the current window is compared to the distribution of values in a past reference window. This approach is appropriate when the number of points between changepoints is large and alarm delay is not a critical metric.
@cite_14
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In this paper we study the problem of constructing histograms from high-speed time-changing data streams. Learning in this context requires the ability to process examples once at the rate they arrive, maintaining a histogram consistent with the most recent data, and forgetting out-date data whenever a change in the distribution is detected. To construct histogram from high-speed data streams we use the two layer structure used in the Partition Incremental Discretization (PiD) algorithm. Our contribution is a new method to detect whenever a change in the distribution generating examples occurs. The base idea consists of monitoring distributions from two different time windows: the reference time window, that reflects the distribution observed in the past; and the current time window reflecting the distribution observed in the most recent data. We compare both distributions and signal a change whenever they are greater than a threshold value, using three different methods: the Entropy Absolute Difference, the Kullback-Leibler divergence and the Cosine Distance. The experimental results suggest that Kullback-Leibler divergence exhibit high probability in change detection, faster detection rates, with few false positives alarms. This paper introduces a framework for inference of timed temporal logic properties from data. The dataset is given as a finite set of pairs of finite-time system traces and labels, where the labels indicate whether the traces exhibit some desired behavior (e.g., a ship traveling along a safe route). We propose a decision-tree based approach for learning signal temporal logic classifiers. The method produces binary decision trees that represent the inferred formulae. Each node of the tree contains a test associated with the satisfaction of a simple formula, optimally tuned from a predefined finite set of primitives. Optimality is assessed using heuristic impurity measures, which capture how well the current primitive splits the data with respect to the traces' labels. We propose extensions of the usual impurity measures from machine learning literature to handle classification of system traces by leveraging upon the robustness degree concept. The proposed incremental construction procedure greatly improves the execution time and the accuracy compared to existing algorithms. We present two case studies that illustrate the usefulness and the computational advantages of the algorithms. The first is an anomaly detection problem in a maritime environment. The second is a fault detection problem in an automotive powertrain system. In the past few years there has been increased interest in using data-mining techniques to extract interesting patterns from time series data generated by sensors monitoring temporally varying phenomenon. Most work has assumed that raw data is somehow processed to generate a sequence of events, which is then mined for interesting episodes. In some cases the rule for determining when a sensor reading should generate an event is well known. However, if the phenomenon is ill-understood, stating such a rule is difficult. Detection of events in such an environment is the focus of this paper. Consider a dynamic phenomenon whose behavior changes enough over time to be considered a qualitatively significant change. The problem we investigate is of identifying the time points at which the behavior change occurs. In the statistics literature this has been called the change-point detection problem. The standard approach has been to (a) upriori determine the number of change-points that are to be discovered, and (b) decide the function that will be used for curve fitting in the interval between successive change-points. In this paper we generalize along both these dimensions. We propose an iterative algorithm that fits a model to a time segment, and uses a likelihood criterion to determine if the segment should be partitioned further, i.e. if it contains a new changepoint. In this paper we present algorithms for both the batch and incremental versions of the problem, and evaluate their behavior with synthetic and real data. Finally, we present initial results comparing the change-points detected by the batch algorithm with those detected by people using visual inspection. Most existing model-based approaches to anomaly detection in streaming data are based on decision trees due to their fast construction speed [1]. This paper proposes two fast anomaly detectors based on ensembles of neural networks for evolving data streams. One model is a supervised online learning algorithm involving an ensemble of threaded multilayer perceptrons MLP. The other model is a one-class learning algorithm with an ensemble of threaded autoencoders. The latter model only requires data from the positive class for training and is accurate even when anomalous training data are rare. The models feature an ensemble of multilayer perceptrons or autoencoders from multi-threads which evolve with data streams. Using multi-threads makes the methods highly efficient because both methods process data streams in parallel. Our analysis shows that both methods in streaming data have constant small time complexity and constant memory requirement. When compared with Very Fast Decision Trees VFDT, a state-of-the-art algorithm, our methods performed favorably in terms of detection accuracy and training time for the datasets under consideration.