Tracking Twitter for public health has shown great potential. However, most recent work has been focused on correlating Twitter messages to influenza rates, a disease that exhibits a marked seasonal pattern. In the presence of sudden outbreaks, how can social media streams be used to strengthen surveillance capacity? In May 2011, Germany reported an outbreak of Enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC). It was one of the largest described outbreaks of EHEC HUS worldwide and the largest in Germany. In this work, we study the crowd's behavior in Twitter during the outbreak. In particular, we report how tracking Twitter helped to detect key user messages that triggered signal detection alarms before MedISys and other well established early warning systems. We also introduce a personalized learning to rank approach that exploits the relationships discovered by: (i) latent semantic topics computed using Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), and (ii) observing the social tagging behavior in Twitter, to rank tweets for epidemic intelligence. Our results provide the grounds for new public health research based on social media.
Our work is similar to that of @cite_24 , were media reports on the 2011 EHEC outbreak in Germany are tracked. Although in their work no early warning was possible, they identified key aspects of developing outbreak stories. In contrast to this work, our approach exploits social media data and we show that a system can help to get early warnings on public health threats.
@cite_24
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In May 2011, an outbreak of enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC) occurred in northern Germany. The Shiga toxin-producing strain O104:H4 infected several thousand people, frequently leading to haemolytic uremic syndrome (HUS) and gastroenteritis (GI). First reports about the outbreak appeared in the German media on Saturday 21st of May 2011; the media attention rose to high levels in the following two weeks, with up to 2000 articles categorized per day by the automatic threat detection system MedISys (Medical Information System). In this article, we illustrate how MedISys detected the sudden increase in reporting on E. coli on 21st of May and how automatic analysis of the reporting provided epidemic intelligence information to follow the event. Categorization, filtering and clustering allowed identifying different aspects within the unfolding news event, analyzing general media and official sites in parallel. Content analysis and clustering of natural language documents becomes crucial in various domains, even in public health. Recent pandemics such as Swine Flu have caused concern for public health officials. Given the ever increasing pace at which infectious diseases can spread globally, officials must be prepared to react sooner and with greater epidemic intelligence gathering capabilities. Information should be gathered from a broader range of sources, including the Web which in turn requires more robust processing capabilities. To address this limitation, in this paper, we propose a new approach to detect public health events in an unsupervised manner. We address the problems associated with adapting an unsupervised learner to the medical domain and in doing so, propose an approach which combines aspects from different feature-based event detection methods. We evaluate our approach with a real world dataset with respect to the quality of article clusters. Our results show that we are able to achieve a precision of 62 and a recall of 75 evaluated using manually annotated, real-world data. Background Surveys are popular methods to measure public perceptions in emergencies but can be costly and time consuming. We suggest and evaluate a complementary “infoveillance” approach using Twitter during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic. Our study aimed to: 1) monitor the use of the terms “H1N1” versus “swine flu” over time; 2) conduct a content analysis of “tweets”; and 3) validate Twitter as a real-time content, sentiment, and public attention trend-tracking tool. Methodology Principal Findings Between May 1 and December 31, 2009, we archived over 2 million Twitter posts containing keywords “swine flu,” “swineflu,” and or “H1N1.” using Infovigil, an infoveillance system. Tweets using “H1N1” increased from 8.8 to 40.5 (R2 = .788; p<.001), indicating a gradual adoption of World Health Organization-recommended terminology. 5,395 tweets were randomly selected from 9 days, 4 weeks apart and coded using a tri-axial coding scheme. To track tweet content and to test the feasibility of automated coding, we created database queries for keywords and correlated these results with manual coding. Content analysis indicated resource-related posts were most commonly shared (52.6 ). 4.5 of cases were identified as misinformation. News websites were the most popular sources (23.2 ), while government and health agencies were linked only 1.5 of the time. 7 10 automated queries correlated with manual coding. Several Twitter activity peaks coincided with major news stories. Our results correlated well with H1N1 incidence data. Conclusions This study illustrates the potential of using social media to conduct “infodemiology” studies for public health. 2009 H1N1-related tweets were primarily used to disseminate information from credible sources, but were also a source of opinions and experiences. Tweets can be used for real-time content analysis and knowledge translation research, allowing health authorities to respond to public concerns. Abstract Introduction The authors of this work propose an unsupervised machine learning model that has the ability to identify real-world latent infectious diseases by mining social media data. In this study, a latent infectious disease is defined as a communicable disease that has not yet been formalized by national public health institutes and explicitly communicated to the general public. Most existing approaches to modeling infectious-disease-related knowledge discovery through social media networks are top-down approaches that are based on already known information, such as the names of diseases and their symptoms. In existing top-down approaches, necessary but unknown information, such as disease names and symptoms, is mostly unidentified in social media data until national public health institutes have formalized that disease. Most of the formalizing processes for latent infectious diseases are time consuming. Therefore, this study presents a bottom-up approach for latent infectious disease discovery in a given location without prior information, such as disease names and related symptoms. Methods Social media messages with user and temporal information are extracted during the data preprocessing stage. An unsupervised sentiment analysis model is then presented. Users’ expressions about symptoms, body parts, and pain locations are also identified from social media data. Then, symptom weighting vectors for each individual and time period are created, based on their sentiment and social media expressions. Finally, latent-infectious-disease-related information is retrieved from individuals’ symptom weighting vectors. Datasets and results Twitter data from August 2012 to May 2013 are used to validate this study. Real electronic medical records for 104 individuals, who were diagnosed with influenza in the same period, are used to serve as ground truth validation. The results are promising, with the highest precision, recall, and F 1 score values of 0.773, 0.680, and 0.724, respectively. Conclusion This work uses individuals’ social media messages to identify latent infectious diseases, without prior information, quicker than when the disease(s) is formalized by national public health institutes. In particular, the unsupervised machine learning model using user, textual, and temporal information in social media data, along with sentiment analysis, identifies latent infectious diseases in a given location.