We report on a data-driven investigation aimed at understanding the dynamics of message spreading in a real-world dynamical network of human proximity. We use data collected by means of a proximity-sensing network of wearable sensors that we deployed at three different social gatherings, simultaneously involving several hundred individuals. We simulate a message spreading process over the recorded proximity network, focusing on both the topological and the temporal properties. We show that by using an appropriate technique to deal with the temporal heterogeneity of proximity events, a universal statistical pattern emerges for the delivery times of messages, robust across all the data sets. Our results are useful to set constraints for generic processes of data dissemination, as well as to validate established models of human mobility and proximity that are frequently used to simulate realistic behaviors.
Human trajectories are often approximated by random walk models. Measurements suggest that animal but also human trajectories can be approximated by L ' e vy flights @cite_15 @cite_3 @cite_13 @cite_33 . Mobility patterns of individuals at the geographic scale, as obtained from mobile phones, show that the distribution of displacements over all users is well approximated by a truncated power-law @cite_27 . Investigating mobility at the geographic scale, however, does not shed light on the shorter-range scale that is relevant for individual mobility and proximity in contexts that are relevant for data diffusion and its applications.
@cite_33 @cite_3 @cite_27 @cite_15 @cite_13
2133400794 2056284729 2153248811 2133286823
Individual human trajectories are characterized by fat-tailed distributions of jump sizes and waiting times, suggesting the relevance of continuous-time random-walk (CTRW) models for human mobility. However, human traces are barely random. Given the importance of human mobility, from epidemic modelling to traffic prediction and urban planning, we need quantitative models that can account for the statistical characteristics of individual human trajectories. Here we use empirical data on human mobility, captured by mobile-phone traces, to show that the predictions of the CTRW models are in systematic conflict with the empirical results. We introduce two principles that govern human trajectories, allowing us to build a statistically self-consistent microscopic model for individual human mobility. The model accounts for the empirically observed scaling laws, but also allows us to analytically predict most of the pertinent scaling exponents. The website wheresgeorge.com invites its users to enter the serial numbers of their US dollar bills and track them across America and beyond. Why? “For fun and because it had not been done yet”, they say. But the dataset accumulated since December 1998 has provided the ideal raw material to test the mathematical laws underlying human travel, and that has important implications for the epidemiology of infectious diseases. Analysis of the trajectories of over half a million dollar bills shows that human dispersal is described by a ‘two-parameter continuous-time random walk’ model: our travel habits conform to a type of random proliferation known as ‘superdiffusion’. And with that much established, it should soon be possible to develop a new class of models to account for the spread of human disease. The dynamic spatial redistribution of individuals is a key driving force of various spatiotemporal phenomena on geographical scales. It can synchronize populations of interacting species, stabilize them, and diversify gene pools1,2,3. Human travel, for example, is responsible for the geographical spread of human infectious disease4,5,6,7,8,9. In the light of increasing international trade, intensified human mobility and the imminent threat of an influenza A epidemic10, the knowledge of dynamical and statistical properties of human travel is of fundamental importance. Despite its crucial role, a quantitative assessment of these properties on geographical scales remains elusive, and the assumption that humans disperse diffusively still prevails in models. Here we report on a solid and quantitative assessment of human travelling statistics by analysing the circulation of bank notes in the United States. Using a comprehensive data set of over a million individual displacements, we find that dispersal is anomalous in two ways. First, the distribution of travelling distances decays as a power law, indicating that trajectories of bank notes are reminiscent of scale-free random walks known as Levy flights. Second, the probability of remaining in a small, spatially confined region for a time T is dominated by algebraically long tails that attenuate the superdiffusive spread. We show that human travelling behaviour can be described mathematically on many spatiotemporal scales by a two-parameter continuous-time random walk model to a surprising accuracy, and conclude that human travel on geographical scales is an ambivalent and effectively superdiffusive process. We report that human walks performed in outdoor settings of tens of kilometers resemble a truncated form of Levy walks commonly observed in animals such as monkeys, birds and jackals. Our study is based on about one thousand hours of GPS traces involving 44 volunteers in various outdoor settings including two different college campuses, a metropolitan area, a theme park and a state fair. This paper shows that many statistical features of human walks follow truncated power-law, showing evidence of scale-freedom and do not conform to the central limit theorem. These traits are similar to those of Levy walks. It is conjectured that the truncation, which makes the mobility deviate from pure Levy walks, comes from geographical constraints including walk boundary, physical obstructions and traffic. None of commonly used mobility models for mobile networks captures these properties. Based on these findings, we construct a simple Levy walk mobility model which is versatile enough in emulating diverse statistical patterns of human walks observed in our traces. The model is also used to recreate similar power-law inter-contact time distributions observed in previous human mobility studies. Our network simulation indicates that the Levy walk features are important in characterizing the performance of mobile network routing performance. We report that human walk patterns contain statistically similar features observed in Levy walks. These features include heavy-tail flight and pause-time distributions and the super-diffusive nature of mobility. Human walks are not random walks, but it is surprising that the patterns of human walks and Levy walks contain some statistical similarity. Our study is based on 226 daily GPS traces collected from 101 volunteers in five different outdoor sites. The heavy-tail flight distribution of human mobility induces the super-diffusivity of travel, but up to 30 min to 1 h due to the boundary effect of people's daily movement, which is caused by the tendency of people to move within a predefined (also confined) area of daily activities. These tendencies are not captured in common mobility models such as random way point (RWP). To evaluate the impact of these tendencies on the performance of mobile networks, we construct a simple truncated Levy walk mobility (TLW) model that emulates the statistical features observed in our analysis and under which we measure the performance of routing protocols in delay-tolerant networks (DTNs) and mobile ad hoc networks (MANETs). The results indicate the following. Higher diffusivity induces shorter intercontact times in DTN and shorter path durations with higher success probability in MANET. The diffusivity of TLW is in between those of RWP and Brownian motion (BM). Therefore, the routing performance under RWP as commonly used in mobile network studies and tends to be overestimated for DTNs and underestimated for MANETs compared to the performance under TLW.