The social Web is transforming the way information is created and distributed. Blog authoring tools enable users to publish content, while sites such as Digg and Del.icio.us are used to distribute content to a wider audience. With content fast becoming a commodity, interest in using social networks to promote and find content has grown, both on the side of content producers (viral marketing) and consumers (recommendation). Here we study the role of social networks in promoting content on Digg, a social news aggregator that allows users to submit links to and vote on news stories. Digg's goal is to feature the most interesting stories on its front page, and it aggregates opinions of its many users to identify them. Like other social networking sites, Digg allows users to designate other users as friends'' and see what stories they found interesting. We studied the spread of interest in news stories submitted to Digg in June 2006. Our results suggest that pattern of the spread of interest in a story on the network is indicative of how popular the story will become. Stories that spread mainly outside of the submitter's neighborhood go on to be very popular, while stories that spread mainly through submitter's social neighborhood prove not to be very popular. This effect is visible already in the early stages of voting, and one can make a prediction about the potential audience of a story simply by analyzing where the initial votes come from.
Other researchers have used Digg's trove of empirical data to study dynamics of voting. Wu and Huberman @cite_1 found that interest in a story peaks when the story first hits the front page, and then decays with time, with a half-life of about a day. Their study is complementary to ours, as they studied dynamics of stories they hit the front page. Also, they do not identify a mechanism for the spread of interest in a story. We, on the other hand, propose, and empirically study, social networks as a mechanism for the spread of interest in a story. Crane and Sornette @cite_14 analyzed a large number of videos posted on YouTube. By looking at the dynamics of the number of votes received by the videos, they found that they could identify high quality videos, whether they were selected by YouTube editors, or spontaneously became popular. Like Wu and Huberman, they looked at aggregate statistics, not the microscopic dynamics of the spread of interest in stories.
@cite_14 @cite_1
2070366435 2129419521 1769818149 1980722028
We present a method for accurately predicting the long time popularity of online content from early measurements of user's access. Using two content sharing portals, Youtube and Digg, we show that by modeling the accrual of views and votes on content offered by these services we can predict the long-term dynamics of individual submissions from initial data. In the case of Digg, measuring access to given stories during the first two hours allows us to forecast their popularity 30 days ahead with remarkable accuracy, while downloads of Youtube videos need to be followed for 10 days to attain the same performance. The differing time scales of the predictions are shown to be due to differences in how content is consumed on the two portals: Digg stories quickly become outdated, while Youtube videos are still found long after they are initially submitted to the portal. We show that predictions are more accurate for submissions for which attention decays quickly, whereas predictions for evergreen content will be prone to larger errors. This paper develops a framework for studying the popularity dynamics of user-generated videos, presents a characterization of the popularity dynamics, and proposes a model that captures the key properties of these dynamics. We illustrate the biases that may be introduced in the analysis for some choices of the sampling technique used for collecting data; however, sampling from recently-uploaded videos provides a dataset that is seemingly unbiased. Using a dataset that tracks the views to a sample of recently-uploaded YouTube videos over the first eight months of their lifetime, we study the popularity dynamics. We find that the relative popularities of the videos within our dataset are highly non-stationary, owing primarily to large differences in the required time since upload until peak popularity is finally achieved, and secondly to popularity oscillation. We propose a model that can accurately capture the popularity dynamics of collections of recently-uploaded videos as they age, including key measures such as hot set churn statistics, and the evolution of the viewing rate and total views distributions over time. Large-scale data from social media have a significant potential to describe complex phenomena in the real world and to anticipate collective behaviors such as information spreading and social trends. One specific case of study is represented by the collective attention to the action of political parties. Not surprisingly, researchers and stakeholders tried to correlate parties' presence on social media with their performances in elections. Despite the many efforts, results are still inconclusive since this kind of data is often very noisy and significant signals could be covered by (largely unknown) statistical fluctuations. In this paper we consider the number of tweets (tweet volume) of a party as a proxy of collective attention to the party, identify the dynamics of the volume, and show that this quantity has some information on the election outcome. We find that the distribution of the tweet volume for each party follows a log-normal distribution with a positive autocorrelation of the volume over short terms, which indicates the volume has large fluctuations of the log-normal distribution yet with a short-term tendency. Furthermore, by measuring the ratio of two consecutive daily tweet volumes, we find that the evolution of the daily volume of a party can be described by means of a geometric Brownian motion (i.e., the logarithm of the volume moves randomly with a trend). Finally, we determine the optimal period of averaging tweet volume for reducing fluctuations and extracting short-term tendencies. We conclude that the tweet volume is a good indicator of parties' success in the elections when considered over an optimal time window. Our study identifies the statistical nature of collective attention to political issues and sheds light on how to model the dynamics of collective attention in social media. We study the detailed growth of a social networking site with full temporal information by examining the creation process of each friendship relation that can collectively lead to the macroscopic properties of the network. We first study the reciprocal behavior of users, and find that link requests are quickly responded to and that the distribution of reciprocation intervals decays in an exponential form. The degrees of inviters accepters are slightly negatively correlative with reciprocation time. In addition, the temporal feature of the online community shows that the distributions of intervals of user behaviors, such as sending or accepting link requests, follow a power law with a universal exponent, and peaks emerge for intervals of an integral day. We finally study the preferential selection and linking phenomena of the social networking site and find that, for the former, a linear preference holds for preferential sending and reception, and for the latter, a linear preference also holds for preferential acceptance, creation, and attachment. Based on the linearly preferential linking, we put forward an analyzable network model which can reproduce the degree distribution of the network. The research framework presented in the paper could provide a potential insight into how the micro-motives of users lead to the global structure of online social networks.