With the advent of Big Data, nowadays in many applications databases containing large quantities of similar time series are available. Forecasting time series in these domains with traditional univariate forecasting procedures leaves great potentials for producing accurate forecasts untapped. Recurrent neural networks (RNNs), and in particular Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, have proven recently that they are able to outperform state-of-the-art univariate time series forecasting methods in this context when trained across all available time series. However, if the time series database is heterogeneous, accuracy may degenerate, so that on the way towards fully automatic forecasting methods in this space, a notion of similarity between the time series needs to be built into the methods. To this end, we present a prediction model that can be used with different types of RNN models on subgroups of similar time series, which are identified by time series clustering techniques. We assess our proposed methodology using LSTM networks, a widely popular RNN variant. Our method achieves competitive results on benchmarking datasets under competition evaluation procedures. In particular, in terms of mean sMAPE accuracy, it consistently outperforms the baseline LSTM model and outperforms all other methods on the CIF2016 forecasting competition dataset.
@cite_6 highlights several design implications of the MLP architecture for time series forecasting, such as a large number of design parameters, long training time, a potential of the fitting procedure to suffer from local minima, etc. To overcome these shortcomings, those authors introduce GRNN, a special type of neural network that contains a single design parameter and carries out a relatively fast training procedure compared to vanilla MLP. Also, they incorporate several design strategies (e.g., fusing multiple GRNNs) to automate the proposed modelling scheme to make it more desirable for large-scale business time series forecasting.
@cite_6
2030888282 2402146185 2094887027 2798598284
Over the past few decades, application of artificial neural networks (ANN) to time-series forecasting (TSF) has been growing rapidly due to several unique features of ANN models. However, to date, a consistent ANN performance over different studies has not been achieved. Many factors contribute to the inconsistency in the performance of neural network models. One such factor is that ANN modeling involves determining a large number of design parameters, and the current design practice is essentially heuristic and ad hoc, this does not exploit the full potential of neural networks. Systematic ANN modeling processes and strategies for TSF are, therefore, greatly needed. Motivated by this need, this paper attempts to develop an automatic ANN modeling scheme. It is based on the generalized regression neural network (GRNN), a special type of neural network. By taking advantage of several GRNN properties (i.e., a single design parameter and fast learning) and by incorporating several design strategies (e.g., fusing multiple GRNNs), we have been able to make the proposed modeling scheme to be effective for modeling large-scale business time series. The initial model was entered into the NN3 time-series competition. It was awarded the best prediction on the reduced dataset among approximately 60 different models submitted by scholars worldwide. Recurrent neural network architectures have been shown to efficiently model long term temporal dependencies between acoustic events. However the training time of recurrent networks is higher than feedforward networks due to the sequential nature of the learning algorithm. In this paper we propose a time delay neural network architecture which models long term temporal dependencies with training times comparable to standard feed-forward DNNs. The network uses sub-sampling to reduce computation during training. On the Switchboard task we show a relative improvement of 6 over the baseline DNN model. We present results on several LVCSR tasks with training data ranging from 3 to 1800 hours to show the effectiveness of the TDNN architecture in learning wider temporal dependencies in both small and large data scenarios. We propose a wavelet multiscale decomposition-based autoregressive approach for the prediction of 1-h ahead load based on historical electricity load data. This approach is based on a multiple resolution decomposition of the signal using the non-decimated or redundant Haar a trous wavelet transform whose advantage is taking into account the asymmetric nature of the time-varying data. There is an additional computational advantage in that there is no need to recompute the wavelet transform (wavelet coefficients) of the full signal if the electricity data (time series) is regularly updated. We assess results produced by this multiscale autoregressive (MAR) method, in both linear and non-linear variants, with single resolution autoregression (AR), multilayer perceptron (MLP), Elman recurrent neural network (ERN) and the general regression neural network (GRNN) models. Results are based on the New South Wales (Australia) electricity load data that is provided by the National Electricity Market Management Company (NEMMCO). Two architectures that generalize convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for the processing of signals supported on graphs are introduced. We start with the selection graph neural network (GNN), which replaces linear time invariant filters with linear shift invariant graph filters to generate convolutional features and reinterprets pooling as a possibly nonlinear subsampling stage where nearby nodes pool their information in a set of preselected sample nodes. A key component of the architecture is to remember the position of sampled nodes to permit computation of convolutional features at deeper layers. The second architecture, dubbed aggregation GNN, diffuses the signal through the graph and stores the sequence of diffused components observed by a designated node. This procedure effectively aggregates all components into a stream of information having temporal structure to which the convolution and pooling stages of regular CNNs can be applied. A multinode version of aggregation GNNs is further introduced for operation in large-scale graphs. An important property of selection and aggregation GNNs is that they reduce to conventional CNNs when particularized to time signals reinterpreted as graph signals in a circulant graph. Comparative numerical analyses are performed in a source localization application over synthetic and real-world networks. Performance is also evaluated for an authorship attribution problem and text category classification. Multinode aggregation GNNs are consistently the best-performing GNN architecture.