Extending R. A. Fisher and D. A. Freedman's results on the analysis of covariance, Lin [2013] proposed an ordinary least squares adjusted estimator of the average treatment effect in completely randomized experiments. We further study its statistical properties under the potential outcomes model in the asymptotic regimes allowing for a diverging number of covariates. We show that Lin [2013]'s estimator is consistent when @math and asymptotically normal when @math under mild moment conditions, where @math is the maximum leverage score of the covariate matrix. In the favorable case where leverage scores are all close together, his estimator is consistent when @math and is asymptotically normal when @math . In addition, we propose a bias-corrected estimator that is consistent when @math and is asymptotically normal, with the same variance in the fixed- @math regime, when @math . In the favorable case, the latter condition reduces to @math . Similar to Lin [2013], our results hold for non-random potential outcomes and covariates without any model specification. Our analysis requires novel analytic tools for sampling without replacement, which complement and potentially enrich the theory in other areas such as survey sampling, matrix sketching, and transductive learning.
Theoretical analyses under the finite-population randomization model are challenging due to the lack of probability tools. The closest work to ours is @cite_8 , which allows @math to grow with @math and potentially exceed @math . However, they assume that the potential outcomes have sparse linear representations based on the covariates, and require @math where @math is a measure of sparsity. Under additional regularities conditions, they show that @math is consistent and asymptotically normal with @math being the LASSO coefficients of the covariates. Although the LASSO-adjusted estimator can handle ultra-high dimensional case where @math , it has three limitations. First, the requirement @math is stringent. For instance, the PAC-man dataset considered by @cite_8 has @math and @math , so the condition reads @math , which implicitly imposes a strong sparse modelling assumption.
@cite_8
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Given @math noisy samples with @math dimensions, where @math , we show that the multi-step thresholding procedure based on the Lasso -- we call it the Thresholded Lasso , can accurately estimate a sparse vector @math in a linear model @math , where @math is a design matrix normalized to have column @math norm @math , and @math . We show that under the restricted eigenvalue (RE) condition (Bickel-Ritov-Tsybakov 09), it is possible to achieve the @math loss within a logarithmic factor of the ideal mean square error one would achieve with an oracle while selecting a sufficiently sparse model -- hence achieving sparse oracle inequalities ; the oracle would supply perfect information about which coordinates are non-zero and which are above the noise level. In some sense, the Thresholded Lasso recovers the choices that would have been made by the @math penalized least squares estimators, in that it selects a sufficiently sparse model without sacrificing the accuracy in estimating @math and in predicting @math . We also show for the Gauss-Dantzig selector (Cand e s-Tao 07), if @math obeys a uniform uncertainty principle and if the true parameter is sufficiently sparse, one will achieve the sparse oracle inequalities as above, while allowing at most @math irrelevant variables in the model in the worst case, where @math is the smallest integer such that for @math , @math . Our simulation results on the Thresholded Lasso match our theoretical analysis excellently. We consider the problem of fitting the parameters of a high-dimensional linear regression model. In the regime where the number of parameters @math is comparable to or exceeds the sample size @math , a successful approach uses an @math -penalized least squares estimator, known as Lasso. Unfortunately, unlike for linear estimators (e.g., ordinary least squares), no well-established method exists to compute confidence intervals or p-values on the basis of the Lasso estimator. Very recently, a line of work javanmard2013hypothesis, confidenceJM, GBR-hypothesis has addressed this problem by constructing a debiased version of the Lasso estimator. In this paper, we study this approach for random design model, under the assumption that a good estimator exists for the precision matrix of the design. Our analysis improves over the state of the art in that it establishes nearly optimal testing power if the sample size @math asymptotically dominates @math , with @math being the sparsity level (number of non-zero coefficients). Earlier work obtains provable guarantees only for much larger sample size, namely it requires @math to asymptotically dominate @math . In particular, for random designs with a sparse precision matrix we show that an estimator thereof having the required properties can be computed efficiently. Finally, we evaluate this approach on synthetic data and compare it with earlier proposals. We consider linear regression in the high-dimensional regime where the number of observations @math is smaller than the number of parameters @math . A very successful approach in this setting uses @math -penalized least squares (a.k.a. the Lasso) to search for a subset of @math parameters that best explain the data, while setting the other parameters to zero. Considerable amount of work has been devoted to characterizing the estimation and model selection problems within this approach. In this paper we consider instead the fundamental, but far less understood, question of . More precisely, we address the problem of computing p-values for single regression coefficients. On one hand, we develop a general upper bound on the minimax power of tests with a given significance level. On the other, we prove that this upper bound is (nearly) achievable through a practical procedure in the case of random design matrices with independent entries. Our approach is based on a debiasing of the Lasso estimator. The analysis builds on a rigorous characterization of the asymptotic distribution of the Lasso estimator and its debiased version. Our result holds for optimal sample size, i.e., when @math is at least on the order of @math . We generalize our approach to random design matrices with i.i.d. Gaussian rows @math . In this case we prove that a similar distributional characterization (termed standard distributional limit') holds for @math much larger than @math . Finally, we show that for optimal sample size, @math being at least of order @math , the standard distributional limit for general Gaussian designs can be derived from the replica heuristics in statistical physics. In the sparse linear regression setting, we consider testing the significance of the predictor variable that enters the current lasso model, in the sequence of models visited along the lasso solution path. We propose a simple test statistic based on lasso fitted values, called the covariance test statistic, and show that when the true model is linear, this statistic has an Exp(1) asymptotic distribution under the null hypothesis (the null being that all truly active variables are contained in the current lasso model). Our proof of this result for the special case of the first predictor to enter the model (i.e., testing for a single significant predictor variable against the global null) requires only weak assumptions on the predictor matrix X. On the other hand, our proof for a general step in the lasso path places further technical assumptions on X and the generative model, but still allows for the important high-dimensional case p > n, and does not necessarily require that the current lasso model achieves perfect recovery of the truly active variables. Of course, for testing the significance of an additional variable between two nested linear models, one typically uses the chi-squared test, comparing the drop in residual sum of squares (RSS) to a χ12 distribution. But when this additional variable is not fixed, and has been chosen adaptively or greedily, this test is no longer appropriate: adaptivity makes the drop in RSS stochastically much larger than χ12 under the null hypothesis. Our analysis explicitly accounts for adaptivity, as it must, since the lasso builds an adaptive sequence of linear models as the tuning parameter λ decreases. In this analysis, shrinkage plays a key role: though additional variables are chosen adaptively, the coefficients of lasso active variables are shrunken due to the l1 penalty. Therefore, the test statistic (which is based on lasso fitted values) is in a sense balanced by these two opposing properties—adaptivity and shrinkage—and its null distribution is tractable and asymptotically Exp(1).