Choosing optimal (or at least better) policies is an important problem in domains from medicine to education to finance and many others. One approach to this problem is through controlled experiments trials - but controlled experiments are expensive. Hence it is important to choose the best policies on the basis of observational data. This presents two difficult challenges: (i) missing counterfactuals, and (ii) selection bias. This paper presents theoretical bounds on estimation errors of counterfactuals from observational data by making connections to domain adaptation theory. It also presents a principled way of choosing optimal policies using domain adversarial neural networks. We illustrate the effectiveness of domain adversarial training together with various features of our algorithm on a semi-synthetic breast cancer dataset and a supervised UCI dataset (Statlog).
The work on ITE estimation that is most closely related to ours focuses on learning balanced representations @cite_1 @cite_2 . These papers develop neural network algorithms to minimize the mean squared error between predictions and actual outcomes in the observational data and also the discrepancy between the representations of the factual and counterfactual data. As these papers note, there is no principled approach to extend them to more than two treatments. Other recent works in ITE estimation include tree-based methods @cite_16 @cite_12 @cite_20 and Gaussian processes @cite_26 . The last is perhaps the most successful, but the computational complexity is @math (where @math is the number of instances) so it is not easy to apply to large observational studies.
@cite_26 @cite_1 @cite_2 @cite_16 @cite_12 @cite_20
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There is intense interest in applying machine learning to problems of causal inference in fields such as healthcare, economics and education. In particular, individual-level causal inference has important applications such as precision medicine. We give a new theoretical analysis and family of algorithms for predicting individual treatment effect (ITE) from observational data, under the assumption known as strong ignorability. The algorithms learn a "balanced" representation such that the induced treated and control distributions look similar. We give a novel, simple and intuitive generalization-error bound showing that the expected ITE estimation error of a representation is bounded by a sum of the standard generalization-error of that representation and the distance between the treated and control distributions induced by the representation. We use Integral Probability Metrics to measure distances between distributions, deriving explicit bounds for the Wasserstein and Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) distances. Experiments on real and simulated data show the new algorithms match or outperform the state-of-the-art. There is intense interest in applying machine learning to problems of causal inference in fields such as healthcare, economics and education. In particular, individual-level causal inference has important applications such as precision medicine. We give a new theoretical analysis and family of algorithms for predicting individual treatment effect (ITE) from observational data, under the assumption known as strong ignorability. The algorithms learn a "balanced" representation such that the induced treated and control distributions look similar, and we give a novel and intuitive generalization-error bound showing the expected ITE estimation error of a representation is bounded by a sum of the standard generalization-error of that representation and the distance between the treated and control distributions induced by the representation. We use Integral Probability Metrics to measure distances between distributions, deriving explicit bounds for the Wasserstein and Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) distances. Experiments on real and simulated data show the new algorithms match or outperform the state-of-the-art. Estimating individualized treatment effects (ITE) is a challenging task due to the need for an individual's potential outcomes to be learned from biased data and without having access to the counterfactuals. We propose a novel method for inferring ITE based on the Generative Adversarial Nets (GANs) framework. Our method, termed Generative Adversarial Nets for inference of Individualized Treatment Effects (GANITE), is motivated by the possibility that we can capture the uncertainty in the counterfactual distributions by attempting to learn them using a GAN. We generate proxies of the counterfactual outcomes using a counterfactual generator, G, and then pass these proxies to an ITE generator, I, in order to train it. By modeling both of these using the GAN framework, we are able to infer based on the factual data, while still accounting for the unseen counterfactuals. We test our method on three real-world datasets (with both binary and multiple treatments) and show that GANITE outperforms state-of-the-art methods. We propose a new method for creating computationally efficient convolutional neural networks (CNNs) by using low-rank representations of convolutional filters. Rather than approximating filters in previously-trained networks with more efficient versions, we learn a set of small basis filters from scratch; during training, the network learns to combine these basis filters into more complex filters that are discriminative for image classification. To train such networks, a novel weight initialization scheme is used. This allows effective initialization of connection weights in convolutional layers composed of groups of differently-shaped filters. We validate our approach by applying it to several existing CNN architectures and training these networks from scratch using the CIFAR, ILSVRC and MIT Places datasets. Our results show similar or higher accuracy than conventional CNNs with much less compute. Applying our method to an improved version of VGG-11 network using global max-pooling, we achieve comparable validation accuracy using 41 less compute and only 24 of the original VGG-11 model parameters; another variant of our method gives a 1 percentage point increase in accuracy over our improved VGG-11 model, giving a top-5 center-crop validation accuracy of 89.7 while reducing computation by 16 relative to the original VGG-11 model. Applying our method to the GoogLeNet architecture for ILSVRC, we achieved comparable accuracy with 26 less compute and 41 fewer model parameters. Applying our method to a near state-of-the-art network for CIFAR, we achieved comparable accuracy with 46 less compute and 55 fewer parameters.