Predicting epidemic dynamics is of great value in understanding and controlling diffusion processes, such as infectious disease spread and information propagation. This task is intractable, especially when surveillance resources are very limited. To address the challenge, we study the problem of active surveillance, i.e., how to identify a small portion of system components as sentinels to effect monitoring, such that the epidemic dynamics of an entire system can be readily predicted from the partial data collected by such sentinels. We propose a novel measure, the gamma value, to identify the sentinels by modeling a sentinel network with row sparsity structure. We design a flexible group sparse Bayesian learning algorithm to mine the sentinel network suitable for handling both linear and non-linear dynamical systems by using the expectation maximization method and variational approximation. The efficacy of the proposed algorithm is theoretically analyzed and empirically validated using both synthetic and real-world data.
In spatial statistics, Gaussian processes (GPs) can effective represent the spatial correlation and uncertainty of the sensed field. Based on GPs, one can adopt general information criteria, typically such as mutual information (GPs-MI), to greedily select sentinels @cite_7 @cite_6 . In this framework, both the GPs and the information criteria are model-free. They neglect the mechanism of data generation. As a result, the prior knowledge of the phenomena [e.g., the susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) model for infectious disease @cite_21 ] is difficult to integrate into the method. If such available prior knowledge can be adequately incorporated, the performance of learning and prediction will be significantly improved, as shown in our experiments.
@cite_21 @cite_6 @cite_7
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Gaussian processes (GPs) are a powerful tool for probabilistic inference over functions. They have been applied to both regression and non-linear dimensionality reduction, and offer desirable properties such as uncertainty estimates, robustness to over-fitting, and principled ways for tuning hyper-parameters. However the scalability of these models to big datasets remains an active topic of research. We introduce a novel re-parametrisation of variational inference for sparse GP regression and latent variable models that allows for an efficient distributed algorithm. This is done by exploiting the decoupling of the data given the inducing points to re-formulate the evidence lower bound in a Map-Reduce setting. We show that the inference scales well with data and computational resources, while preserving a balanced distribution of the load among the nodes. We further demonstrate the utility in scaling Gaussian processes to big data. We show that GP performance improves with increasing amounts of data in regression (on flight data with 2 million records) and latent variable modelling (on MNIST). The results show that GPs perform better than many common models often used for big data. When monitoring spatial phenomena, such as the ecological condition of a river, deciding where to make observations is a challenging task. In these settings, a fundamental question is when an active learning, or sequential design, strategy, where locations are selected based on previous measurements, will perform significantly better than sensing at an a priori specified set of locations. For Gaussian Processes (GPs), which often accurately model spatial phenomena, we present an analysis and efficient algorithms that address this question. Central to our analysis is a theoretical bound which quantifies the performance difference between active and a priori design strategies. We consider GPs with unknown kernel parameters and present a nonmyopic approach for trading off exploration, i.e., decreasing uncertainty about the model parameters, and exploitation, i.e., near-optimally selecting observations when the parameters are (approximately) known. We discuss several exploration strategies, and present logarithmic sample complexity bounds for the exploration phase. We then extend our algorithm to handle nonstationary GPs exploiting local structure in the model. We also present extensive empirical evaluation on several real-world problems. While Gaussian processes (GPs) are the method of choice for regression tasks, they also come with practical difficulties, as inference cost scales cubic in time and quadratic in memory. In this paper, we introduce a natural and expressive way to tackle these problems, by incorporating GPs in sum-product networks (SPNs), a recently proposed tractable probabilistic model allowing exact and efficient inference. In particular, by using GPs as leaves of an SPN we obtain a novel flexible prior over functions, which implicitly represents an exponentially large mixture of local GPs. Exact and efficient posterior inference in this model can be done in a natural interplay of the inference mechanisms in GPs and SPNs. Thereby, each GP is -- similarly as in a mixture of experts approach -- responsible only for a subset of data points, which effectively reduces inference cost in a divide and conquer fashion. We show that integrating GPs into the SPN framework leads to a promising probabilistic regression model which is: (1) computational and memory efficient, (2) allows efficient and exact posterior inference, (3) is flexible enough to mix different kernel functions, and (4) naturally accounts for non-stationarities in time series. In a variate of experiments, we show that the SPN-GP model can learn input dependent parameters and hyper-parameters and is on par with or outperforms the traditional GPs as well as state of the art approximations on real-world data. We present a novel algorithm to produce descriptive online 3D occupancy maps using Gaussian processes (GPs). GP regression and classification have met with recent success in their application to robot mapping, as GPs are capable of expressing rich correlation among map cells and sensor data. However, the cubic computational complexity has limited its application to large-scale mapping and online use. In this paper we address this issue first by proposing test-data octrees, octrees within blocks of the map that prune away nodes of the same state, condensing the number of test data used in a regression, in addition to allowing fast data retrieval. We also propose a nested Bayesian committee machine which, after new sensor data is partitioned among several GP regressions, fuses the result and updates the map with greatly reduced complexity. Finally, by adjusting the range of influence of the training data and tuning a variance threshold implemented in our method's binary classification step, we are able to control the richness of inference achieved by GPs - and its tradeoff with classification accuracy. The performance of the proposed approach is evaluated with both simulated and real data, demonstrating that the method may serve both as an improved-accuracy classifier, and as a predictive tool to support autonomous navigation.