This paper discusses a novel initialization algorithm for the estimation of nonlinear state-space models. Good initial values for the model parameters are obtained by identifying separately the linear dynamics and the nonlinear terms in the model. In particular, the nonlinear dynamic problem is transformed into an approximate static formulation, and simple regression methods are applied to obtain the solution in a fast and efficient way. The proposed method is validated by means of two measurement examples: the Wiener-Hammerstein benchmark problem and the identification of a crystal detector.
State-space models parametrized as feedforward NNs with one hidden layer and @math as activation function are presented in @cite_4 and @cite_10 . For these neural state-space models, prediction error learning algorithms are discussed. In particular, as an alternative to the Extended Kalman Filter, the Kalman gain is directly parametrized in order to obtain simpler expressions. In this way, the gradient of the cost function can be computed in a straightforward manner by following Narendra's sensitivity model approach. To deal with local minima problems two different heuristics are proposed: the initialization of nonlinear neural state-space models as linear state-space models, and learning complex models starting from less complex ones, by increasing the number of hidden neurons in the model.
@cite_10 @cite_4
2004175622 2122263489 2157098139 2399994860
Prediction error learning algorithms for neural state space models are developed, both for the deterministic case and the stochastic case with measurement and process noise. For the stochastic case, a predictor with direct parametrization of the Kalman gain by a neural net architecture is proposed. Expressions for the gradients are derived by applying Narendra's sensitivity model approach. Finally a linear fractional transformation representation is given for neural state space models, which makes it possible to use these models, obtained from input output measurements on a plant, in a standard robust performance control scheme. Identification of nonlinear state space models when no information is available from the state transition or output model has played an important role in the recent research. In this paper, we propose a new approach for modeling a discrete time nonlinear state space system with a multi layer perceptron (MLP) neural network. The expectation maximization (EM) algorithm is used for joint parameter and state estimation of the proposed structure where the particle smoothing algorithm will be applied for estimating hidden states. Because of the non-affine structure of MLP networks compared with some other models such as radial basis functions, the gradient method is used at the M phase of the EM algorithm for parameter and noise estimation. Simulation studies show the superiority and fast convergence of our proposed structure in identification of nonlinear state space models. A new sequential data assimilation method is discussed. It is based on forecasting the error statistics using Monte Carlo methods, a better alternative than solving the traditional and computationally extremely demanding approximate error covariance equation used in the extended Kalman filter. The unbounded error growth found in the extended Kalman filter, which is caused by an overly simplified closure in the error covariance equation, is completely eliminated. Open boundaries can be handled as long as the ocean model is well posed. Well-known numerical instabilities associated with the error covariance equation are avoided because storage and evolution of the error covariance matrix itself are not needed. The results are also better than what is provided by the extended Kalman filter since there is no closure problem and the quality of the forecast error statistics therefore improves. The method should be feasible also for more sophisticated primitive equation models. The computational load for reasonable accuracy is only a fraction of what is required for the extended Kalman filter and is given by the storage of, say, 100 model states for an ensemble size of 100 and thus CPU requirements of the order of the cost of 100 model integrations. The proposed method can therefore be used with realistic nonlinear ocean models on large domains on existing computers, and it is also well suited for parallel computers and clusters of workstations where each processor integrates a few members of the ensemble. We use smoothed analysis techniques to provide guarantees on the training loss of Multilayer Neural Networks (MNNs) at differentiable local minima. Specifically, we examine MNNs with piecewise linear activation functions, quadratic loss and a single output, under mild over-parametrization. We prove that for a MNN with one hidden layer, the training error is zero at every differentiable local minimum, for almost every dataset and dropout-like noise realization. We then extend these results to the case of more than one hidden layer. Our theoretical guarantees assume essentially nothing on the training data, and are verified numerically. These results suggest why the highly non-convex loss of such MNNs can be easily optimized using local updates (e.g., stochastic gradient descent), as observed empirically.