Predictive process monitoring is concerned with the analysis of events produced during the execution of a business process in order to predict as early as possible the final outcome of an ongoing case. Traditionally, predictive process monitoring methods are optimized with respect to accuracy. However, in environments where users make decisions and take actions in response to the predictions they receive, it is equally important to optimize the stability of the successive predictions made for each case. To this end, this paper defines a notion of temporal stability for binary classification tasks in predictive process monitoring and evaluates existing methods with respect to both temporal stability and accuracy. We find that methods based on XGBoost and LSTM neural networks exhibit the highest temporal stability. We then show that temporal stability can be enhanced by hyperparameter-optimizing random forests and XGBoost classifiers with respect to inter-run stability. Finally, we show that time series smoothing techniques can further enhance temporal stability at the expense of slightly lower accuracy.
Existing works have experimented with different classification algorithms. The most popular choices are tree-based methods, such as decision trees @cite_31 @cite_1 @cite_0 and random forests @cite_17 @cite_31 . To our knowledge, there is no existing work on using recurrent neural networks (RNNs) for outcome-oriented predictive pocess monitoring. However, RNNs with long short term memory units (LSTMs) have been used in other predictive monitoring tasks, such as for predicting remaining time and next activity prediction @cite_26 @cite_16 .
@cite_26 @cite_1 @cite_0 @cite_31 @cite_16 @cite_17
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Recurrent neural networks (RNNs), such as long short-term memory networks (LSTMs), serve as a fundamental building block for many sequence learning tasks, including machine translation, language modeling, and question answering. In this paper, we consider the specific problem of word-level language modeling and investigate strategies for regularizing and optimizing LSTM-based models. We propose the weight-dropped LSTM which uses DropConnect on hidden-to-hidden weights as a form of recurrent regularization. Further, we introduce NT-ASGD, a variant of the averaged stochastic gradient method, wherein the averaging trigger is determined using a non-monotonic condition as opposed to being tuned by the user. Using these and other regularization strategies, we achieve state-of-the-art word level perplexities on two data sets: 57.3 on Penn Treebank and 65.8 on WikiText-2. In exploring the effectiveness of a neural cache in conjunction with our proposed model, we achieve an even lower state-of-the-art perplexity of 52.8 on Penn Treebank and 52.0 on WikiText-2. Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) with Long Short-Term Memory units (LSTM) are widely used because they are expressive and are easy to train. Our interest lies in empirically evaluating the expressiveness and the learnability of LSTMs in the sequence-to-sequence regime by training them to evaluate short computer programs, a domain that has traditionally been seen as too complex for neural networks. We consider a simple class of programs that can be evaluated with a single left-to-right pass using constant memory. Our main result is that LSTMs can learn to map the character-level representations of such programs to their correct outputs. Notably, it was necessary to use curriculum learning, and while conventional curriculum learning proved ineffective, we developed a new variant of curriculum learning that improved our networks' performance in all experimental conditions. The improved curriculum had a dramatic impact on an addition problem, making it possible to train an LSTM to add two 9-digit numbers with 99 accuracy. Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) with sophisticated units that implement a gating mechanism have emerged as powerful technique for modeling sequential signals such as speech or electroencephalography (EEG). The latter is the focus on this paper. A significant big data resource, known as the TUH EEG Corpus (TUEEG), has recently become available for EEG research, creating a unique opportunity to evaluate these recurrent units on the task of seizure detection. In this study, we compare two types of recurrent units: long short-term memory units (LSTM) and gated recurrent units (GRU). These are evaluated using a state of the art hybrid architecture that integrates Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) with RNNs. We also investigate a variety of initialization methods and show that initialization is crucial since poorly initialized networks cannot be trained. Furthermore, we explore regularization of these convolutional gated recurrent networks to address the problem of overfitting. Our experiments revealed that convolutional LSTM networks can achieve significantly better performance than convolutional GRU networks. The convolutional LSTM architecture with proper initialization and regularization delivers 30 sensitivity at 6 false alarms per 24 hours. Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), and specifically a variant with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), are enjoying renewed interest as a result of successful applications in a wide range of machine learning problems that involve sequential data. However, while LSTMs provide exceptional results in practice, the source of their performance and their limitations remain rather poorly understood. Using character-level language models as an interpretable testbed, we aim to bridge this gap by providing an analysis of their representations, predictions and error types. In particular, our experiments reveal the existence of interpretable cells that keep track of long-range dependencies such as line lengths, quotes and brackets. Moreover, our comparative analysis with finite horizon n-gram models traces the source of the LSTM improvements to long-range structural dependencies. Finally, we provide analysis of the remaining errors and suggests areas for further study.