Among the many approaches for reasoning about degrees of belief in the presence of noisy sensing and acting, the logical account proposed by Bacchus, Halpern, and Levesque is perhaps the most expressive. While their formalism is quite general, it is restricted to fluents whose values are drawn from discrete finite domains, as opposed to the continuous domains seen in many robotic applications. In this work, we show how this limitation in that approach can be lifted. By dealing seamlessly with both discrete distributions and continuous densities within a rich theory of action, we provide a very general logical specification of how belief should change after acting and sensing in complex noisy domains.
Recently in AI, limited versions of probabilistic logics have been discussed, in the form of relational graphical models, Markov logic networks, probabilistic databases and probabilistic programming @cite_19 @cite_79 @cite_39 @cite_5 @cite_55 @cite_40 @cite_21 @cite_46 @cite_84 . Some have been further extended for continuous probability distributions and temporal reasoning @cite_11 @cite_76 @cite_73 @cite_48 . Overall, these limit the first-order expressiveness of the language, do not treat actions in a general way, and do not handle strict uncertainty. Admittedly, syntactical restrictions in these frameworks are by design, in the interest of tractability (or at least decidability) wrt inference, as they have origins in the richer probabilistic logical languages mentioned above @cite_6 @cite_24 . From the point of view of a general-purpose representation language, however, they are lacking in the kinds of features that we emphasise here.
@cite_73 @cite_48 @cite_55 @cite_21 @cite_84 @cite_39 @cite_6 @cite_19 @cite_79 @cite_40 @cite_24 @cite_5 @cite_46 @cite_76 @cite_11
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We investigate the class of computable probability distributions and explore the fundamental limitations of using this class to describe and compute conditional distributions. In addition to proving the existence of noncomputable conditional distributions, and thus ruling out the possibility of generic probabilistic inference algorithms (even inefficient ones), we highlight some positive results showing that posterior inference is possible in the presence of additional structure like exchangeability and noise, both of which are common in Bayesian hierarchical modeling. This theoretical work bears on the development of probabilistic programming languages (which enable the specification of complex probabilistic models) and their implementations (which can be used to perform Bayesian reasoning). The probabilistic programming approach is particularly well suited for defining infinite-dimensional, recursively-defined stochastic processes of the sort used in nonparametric Bayesian statistics. We present a new construction of the Mondrian process as a partition-valued Markov process in continuous time, which can be viewed as placing a distribution on an infinite kd-tree data structure. (Copies available exclusively from MIT Libraries, Rm. 14-0551, Cambridge, MA 02139-4307. Ph. 617-253-5668; Fax 617-253-1690.) Most tasks require a person or an automated system to reason -- to reach conclusions based on available information. The framework of probabilistic graphical models, presented in this book, provides a general approach for this task. The approach is model-based, allowing interpretable models to be constructed and then manipulated by reasoning algorithms. These models can also be learned automatically from data, allowing the approach to be used in cases where manually constructing a model is difficult or even impossible. Because uncertainty is an inescapable aspect of most real-world applications, the book focuses on probabilistic models, which make the uncertainty explicit and provide models that are more faithful to reality. Probabilistic Graphical Models discusses a variety of models, spanning Bayesian networks, undirected Markov networks, discrete and continuous models, and extensions to deal with dynamical systems and relational data. For each class of models, the text describes the three fundamental cornerstones: representation, inference, and learning, presenting both basic concepts and advanced techniques. Finally, the book considers the use of the proposed framework for causal reasoning and decision making under uncertainty. The main text in each chapter provides the detailed technical development of the key ideas. Most chapters also include boxes with additional material: skill boxes, which describe techniques; case study boxes, which discuss empirical cases related to the approach described in the text, including applications in computer vision, robotics, natural language understanding, and computational biology; and concept boxes, which present significant concepts drawn from the material in the chapter. Instructors (and readers) can group chapters in various combinations, from core topics to more technically advanced material, to suit their particular needs. Many information-management tasks (including classification, retrieval, information extraction, and information integration) can be formalized as inference in an appropriate probabilistic first-order logic. However, most probabilistic first-order logics are not efficient enough for realistically-sized instances of these tasks. One key problem is that queries are typically answered by "grounding" the query---i.e., mapping it to a propositional representation, and then performing propositional inference---and with a large database of facts, groundings can be very large, making inference and learning computationally expensive. Here we present a first-order probabilistic language which is well-suited to approximate "local" grounding: in particular, every query @math can be approximately grounded with a small graph. The language is an extension of stochastic logic programs where inference is performed by a variant of personalized PageRank. Experimentally, we show that the approach performs well on an entity resolution task, a classification task, and a joint inference task; that the cost of inference is independent of database size; and that speedup in learning is possible by multi-threading. We propose a formal language for the specification of trace properties of probabilistic, nondeterministic transition systems, encompassing the properties expressible in Linear Time Logic. Those formulas are in general undecidable on infinite deterministic transition systems and thus on infinite Markov decision processes. This language has both a semantics in terms of sets of traces, as well as another semantics in terms of measurable functions; we give and prove theorems linking the two semantics. We then apply abstract interpretation-based techniques to give upper bounds on the worst-case probability of the studied property. We propose an enhancement of this technique when the state space is partitioned -- for instance along the program points -- allowing the use of faster iteration methods.