A design-centric modeling approach was proposed to model the behavior of the physical process controlled by an Industrial Control System (ICS) and study the cascading effects of data-oriented attacks. A threat model was used as input to guide the construction of the model where control components which are within the adversary's intent and capabilities are extracted. The relevant control components are subsequently modeled together with their control dependencies and operational design specifications. The approach was demonstrated and validated on a water treatment testbed. Attacks were simulated on the testbed model where its resilience to attacks was evaluated using proposed metrics such as Impact Ratio and Time-to-Critical-State. From the analysis of the attacks, design strengths and weaknesses were identified and design improvements were recommended to increase the testbed's resilience to attacks.
In @cite_17 , proposed a methodology of assessing the impact of attacks by measuring the cross-covariances of control variables before and after the system is perturbed. While this method provides insights on how the impact of attack propagates through the system via the relationship between control variables, it does not translate to the consequence of attacks on system performance.
@cite_17
2509307846 2082281040 2137313157 2077227429
Abstract Estimating the possible impacts of security attacks on physical processes can help to rank the critical assets based on their sensitivity to performed attacks and predict their attractiveness from the attacker’s point of view. To address this challenge, this paper proposes a new method for assessing the direct and indirect impacts of attacks on cyber–physical systems (CPSs). The proposed method studies the dynamic behavior of systems in normal situation and under security attacks and evaluates the consequence propagation of attacks. The inputs to the model are control parameters including sensor readings and controller signals. The output of the model is evaluating the consequence propagation of attacks, ranking the important assets of systems based on their sensitivity to conducted attacks, and prioritizing the attacks based on their impacts on the behavior of system. The validation phase of the proposed method is performed by modeling and evaluating the consequence propagation of attacks against a boiling water power plant (BWPP). The massive proliferation of information and communications technologies (hardware and software) into the heart of modern critical infrastructures has given birth to a unique technological ecosystem. Despite the many advantages brought about by modern information and communications technologies, the shift from isolated environments to "systems-of-systems" integrated with massive information and communications infrastructures (e.g., the Internet) exposes critical infrastructures to significant cyber threats. Therefore, it is imperative to develop approaches for identifying and ranking assets in complex, large-scale and heterogeneous critical infrastructures. To address these challenges, this paper proposes a novel methodology for assessing the impacts of cyber attacks on critical infrastructures. The methodology is inspired by research in system dynamics and sensitivity analysis. The proposed behavioral analysis methodology computes the covariances of the observed variables before and after the execution of a specific intervention involving the control variables. Metrics are proposed for quantifying the significance of control variables and measuring the impact propagation of cyber attacks.Experiments conducted on the IEEE 14-bus and IEEE 300-bus electric grid models, and on the well-known Tennessee Eastman chemical process demonstrate the efficiency, scalability and cross-sector applicability of the proposed methodology in several attack scenarios. The advantages of the methodology over graph-theoretic and electrical centrality metric approaches are demonstrated using several test cases. Finally, a novel, stealthy cyber-physical attack is demonstrated against a simulated power grid; this attack can be used to analyze the precision of anomaly detection systems. Measuring the impact of network attack is an important issue in network science. In this paper, we study the impact of maximal vertex coverage (MVC) attack in large complex networks, where the attacker aims at deleting as many edges of the network as possible by attacking a small fraction of nodes. First, we present two metrics to measure the impact of MVC attack. To compute these metrics, we propose an efficient randomized greedy algorithm with near-optimal performance guarantee. Second, we generalize the MVC attack into an uncertain setting, in which a node is deleted by the attacker with a prior probability. We refer to the MVC attack under such uncertain environment as the probabilistic MVC attack. Based on the probabilistic MVC attack, we propose two adaptive metrics, and then present an adaptive greedy algorithm for calculating such metrics accurately and efficiently. Finally, we conduct extensive experiments on 20 real datasets. The results show that P2P and co-authorship networks are extremely robust under the MVC attack while both the online social networks and the Email communication networks exhibit vulnerability under the MVC attack. In addition, the results demonstrate the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed algorithms for computing the proposed metrics. Control strategies for systems with information bottlenecks often follow an estimate-then-control paradigm. This paper presents a “non-coherent” system where this strategy cannot work and provides an alternative. The paper considers the estimation and control of a discrete-time linear system with continuous random observation gain, i.e. through a non-coherent channel. It is shown that such an unstable system is not mean-squared observable regardless of the density of the random observation gain: the mean-squared estimation error for any estimator must go to infinity. This is surprising in the context of threshold results for rate-limited estimation. In contrast to other results with rate-limited feedback, the paper shows that the system can be closed-loop mean-square stabilized in a certain parameter regime even though its open-loop counterpart is not mean-square observable. Finally, carry-free models (generalized deterministic models) provide an intuitive interpretation for the results.