We present a scheme for sequential decision making with a risk-sensitive objective and constraints in a dynamic environment. A neural network is trained as an approximator of the mapping from parameter space to space of risk and policy with risk-sensitive constraints. For a given risk-sensitive problem, in which the objective and constraints are, or can be estimated by, functions of the mean and variance of return, we generate a synthetic dataset as training data. Parameters defining a targeted process might be dynamic, i.e., they might vary over time, so we sample them within specified intervals to deal with these dynamics. We show that: i). Most risk measures can be estimated using return variance; ii). By virtue of the state-augmentation transformation, practical problems modeled by Markov decision processes with stochastic rewards can be solved in a risk-sensitive scenario; and iii). The proposed scheme is validated by a numerical experiment.
The SDM problems considering risk, dynamic environment, and constraint are usually studied separately. Besides the works reviewed in , Shen @cite_13 generalized risk measures to the valuation functions. The author applied a set of valuation functions, derived some model-free risk-sensitive reinforcement learning algorithms, and presented a risk control example in simulated algorithmic trading of stocks. For SDMs in dynamic environments, Hadoux @cite_1 proposed a new model named Hidden Semi-Markov-Mode Markov Decision Process (HS3MDP), which represented non-stationary problems whose dynamics evolved among a finite set of contexts. The author adapted the Partially Observable Monte-Carlo Planning (POMCP) algorithm to HS3MDPs in order to efficiently solve those problems. The POMCP algorithm used a black-box environment simulator and a particle filter to approximate a belief state. The simulator relaxed the model-based requirement, and each filter particle represented a state of the POMDP being solved. For different types of dynamic environment, the author compared a regret-based method with its Markov counterpart @cite_31 . In the regret-based method, the agent was involved in a two-players repeated game, where two agents (the player and the opponent, which can be the environment) chose an action to play, got a feedback, and repeated the game.
@cite_1 @cite_31 @cite_13
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This paper explains how Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) can provide a principled mathematical framework for modelling the inherent uncertainty in spoken dialogue systems. It briefly summarises the basic mathematics and explains why exact optimisation is intractable. It then describes in some detail a form of approximation called the Hidden Information State model which does scale and which can be used to build practical systems. A prototype HIS system for the tourist information domain is evaluated and compared with a baseline MDP system using both user simulations and a live user trial. The results give strong support to the central contention that the POMDP-based framework is both a tractable and powerful approach to building more robust spoken dialogue systems. This thesis addresses the question of planning under uncertainty within a time-dependent changing environment. Original motivation for this work came from the problem of building an autonomous agent able to coordinate with its uncertain environment; this environment being composed of other agents communicating their intentions or non-controllable processes for which some discrete-event model is available. We investigate several approaches for modeling continuous time-dependency in the framework of Markov Decision Processes (MDPs), leading us to a definition of Temporal Markov Decision Problems. Then our approach focuses on two separate paradigms. First, we investigate time-dependent problems as processes and describe them through the formalism of Time-dependent MDPs (TMDPs). We extend the existing results concerning optimality equations and present a new Value Iteration algorithm based on piecewise polynomial function representations in order to solve a more general class of TMDPs. This paves the way to a more general discussion on parametric actions in hybrid state and action spaces MDPs with continuous time. In a second time, we investigate the option of separately modeling the concurrent contributions of exogenous events. This approach of modeling leads to the use of Generalized Semi-Markov Decision Processes (GSMDP). We establish a link between the general framework of Discrete Events Systems Specification (DEVS) and the formalism of GSMDP, allowing us to build sound discrete-event compatible simulators. Then we introduce a simulation-based Policy Iteration approach for explicit-event Temporal Markov Decision Problems. This algorithmic contribution brings together results from simulation theory, forward search in MDPs, and statistical learning theory. The implicit-event approach was tested on a specific version of the Mars rover planning problem and on a drone patrol mission planning problem while the explicit-event approach was evaluated on a subway network control problem. Learning to act optimally in a complex, dynamic and noisy environment is a hard problem. Various threads of research from reinforcement learning, animal conditioning, operations research, machine learning, statistics and optimal control are beginning to come together to offer solutions to this problem. I present a thesis in which novel algorithms are presented for learning the dynamics, learning the value function, and selecting good actions for Markov decision processes. The problems considered have high-dimensional factored state and action spaces, and are either fully or partially observable. The approach I take is to recognize similarities between the problems being solved in the reinforcement learning and graphical models literature, and to use and combine techniques from the two fields in novel ways. In particular I present two new algorithms. First, the DBN algorithm learns a compact representation of the core process of a partially observable MDP. Because inference in the DBN is intractable, I use approximate inference to maintain the belief state. A belief state action-value function is learned using reinforcement learning. I show that this DBN algorithm can solve POMDPs with very large state spaces and useful hidden state. Second, the PoE algorithm learns an approximation to value functions over large factored state-action spaces. The algorithm approximates values as (negative) free energies in a product of experts model. The model parameters can be learned efficiently because inference is tractable in a product of experts. I show that good actions can be found even in large factored action spaces by the use of brief Gibbs sampling. These two new algorithms take techniques from the machine learning community and apply them in new ways to reinforcement learning problems. Simulation results show that these new methods can be used to solve very large problems. The DBN method is used to solve a POMDP with a hidden state space and an observation space of size greater than 2180. The DBN model of the core process has 232 states represented as 32 binary variables. The PoE method is used to find actions in action spaces of size 240 . We propose a new approach to the problem of searching a space of policies for a Markov decision process (MDP) or a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP), given a model. Our approach is based on the following observation: Any (PO)MDP can be transformed into an "equivalent" POMDP in which all state transitions (given the current state and action) are deterministic. This reduces the general problem of policy search to one in which we need only consider POMDPs with deterministic transitions. We give a natural way of estimating the value of all policies in these transformed POMDPs. Policy search is then simply performed by searching for a policy with high estimated value. We also establish conditions under which our value estimates will be good, recovering theoretical results similar to those of Kearns, Mansour and Ng (1999), but with "sample complexity" bounds that have only a polynomial rather than exponential dependence on the horizon time. Our method applies to arbitrary POMDPs, including ones with infinite state and action spaces. We also present empirical results for our approach on a small discrete problem, and on a complex continuous state continuous action problem involving learning to ride a bicycle.