Data-driven models are subject to model errors due to limited and noisy training data. Key to the application of such models in safety-critical domains is the quantification of their model error. Gaussian processes provide such a measure and uniform error bounds have been derived, which allow safe control based on these models. However, existing error bounds require restrictive assumptions. In this paper, we employ the Gaussian process distribution and continuity arguments to derive a novel uniform error bound under weaker assumptions. Furthermore, we demonstrate how this distribution can be used to derive probabilistic Lipschitz constants and analyze the asymptotic behavior of our bound. Finally, we derive safety conditions for the control of unknown dynamical systems based on Gaussian process models and evaluate them in simulations of a robotic manipulator.
The latter issue has been addressed by considering the support of the prior distribution of the Gaussian process as belief space. Based on bounds for the suprema of GPs @cite_23 and existing error bounds for interpolation with radial basis functions a uniform error bound for Kriging (alternative term for GP regression for noise-free training data) is derived in @cite_6 . However, the uniform error of Gaussian process regression with noisy observations has not been analyzed with the help of the prior GP distribution to the best of our knowledge.
@cite_6 @cite_23
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Gaussian process (GP) models are very popular for machine learning and regression and they are widely used to account for spatial or temporal relationships between multivariate random variables. In this paper, we propose a general formulation of underdetermined source separation as a problem involving GP regression. The advantage of the proposed unified view is first to describe the different underdetermined source separation problems as particular cases of a more general framework. Second, it provides a flexible means to include a variety of prior information concerning the sources such as smoothness, local stationarity or periodicity through the use of adequate covariance functions. Third, given the model, it provides an optimal solution in the minimum mean squared error (MMSE) sense to the source separation problem. In order to make the GP models tractable for very large signals, we introduce framing as a GP approximation and we show that computations for regularly sampled and locally stationary GPs can be done very efficiently in the frequency domain. These findings establish a deep connection between GP and nonnegative tensor factorizations (NTF) with the Itakura-Saito distance and lead to effective methods to learn GP hyperparameters for very large and regularly sampled signals. Gaussian processes (GPs) are powerful non-parametric function estimators. However, their applications are largely limited by the expensive computational cost of the inference procedures. Existing stochastic or distributed synchronous variational inferences, although have alleviated this issue by scaling up GPs to millions of samples, are still far from satisfactory for real-world large applications, where the data sizes are often orders of magnitudes larger, say, billions. To solve this problem, we propose ADVGP, the first Asynchronous Distributed Variational Gaussian Process inference for regression, on the recent large-scale machine learning platform, PARAMETERSERVER. ADVGP uses a novel, flexible variational framework based on a weight space augmentation, and implements the highly efficient, asynchronous proximal gradient optimization. While maintaining comparable or better predictive performance, ADVGP greatly improves upon the efficiency of the existing variational methods. With ADVGP, we effortlessly scale up GP regression to a real-world application with billions of samples and demonstrate an excellent, superior prediction accuracy to the popular linear models. We introduce the Gaussian Process Convolution Model (GPCM), a two-stage non-parametric generative procedure to model stationary signals as the convolution between a continuous-time white-noise process and a continuous-time linear filter drawn from Gaussian process. The GPCM is a continuous-time nonparametric-window moving average process and, conditionally, is itself a Gaussian process with a nonparametric kernel defined in a probabilistic fashion. The generative model can be equivalently considered in the frequency domain, where the power spectral density of the signal is specified using a Gaussian process. One of the main contributions of the paper is to develop a novel variational free-energy approach based on inter-domain inducing variables that efficiently learns the continuous-time linear filter and infers the driving white-noise process. In turn, this scheme provides closed-form probabilistic estimates of the covariance kernel and the noise-free signal both in denoising and prediction scenarios. Additionally, the variational inference procedure provides closed-form expressions for the approximate posterior of the spectral density given the observed data, leading to new Bayesian nonparametric approaches to spectrum estimation. The proposed GPCM is validated using synthetic and real-world signals. Learning in real-time applications, e.g., online approximation of the inverse dynamics model for model-based robot control, requires fast online regression techniques. Inspired by local learning, we propose a method to speed up standard Gaussian Process regression (GPR) with local GP models (LGP). The training data is partitioned in local regions, for each an individual GP model is trained. The prediction for a query point is performed by weighted estimation using nearby local models. Unlike other GP approximations, such as mixtures of experts, we use a distance based measure for partitioning of the data and weighted prediction. The proposed method achieves online learning and prediction in real-time. Comparisons with other nonparametric regression methods show that LGP has higher accuracy than LWPR and close to the performance of standard GPR and nu-SVR.