Time series prediction has been studied in a variety of domains. However, it is still challenging to predict future series given historical observations and past exogenous data. Existing methods either fail to consider the interactions among different components of exogenous variables which may affect the prediction accuracy, or cannot model the correlations between exogenous data and target data. Besides, the inherent temporal dynamics of exogenous data are also related to the target series prediction, and thus should be considered as well. To address these issues, we propose an end-to-end deep learning model, i.e., Hierarchical attention-based Recurrent Highway Network (HRHN), which incorporates spatio-temporal feature extraction of exogenous variables and temporal dynamics modeling of target variables into a single framework. Moreover, by introducing the hierarchical attention mechanism, HRHN can adaptively select the relevant exogenous features in different semantic levels. We carry out comprehensive empirical evaluations with various methods over several datasets, and show that HRHN outperforms the state of the arts in time series prediction, especially in capturing sudden changes and sudden oscillations of time series.
RNNs @cite_14 @cite_16 are a class of neural networks that are naturally suited for modeling time series data @cite_18 @cite_19 . The NARX-RNN @cite_20 model combines the capability of capturing nonlinear relationships by RNN with the effectiveness of gradient learning by NARX. However, traditional RNNs suffer from the issues of gradient vanishing and error propagation when learning long-term dependencies @cite_26 . Therefore, special gating mechanisms that control access to memory cells have been developed, such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) @cite_15 and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) @cite_6 , which have already been used to perform time series predictions @cite_13 @cite_29 @cite_17 . Moreover, the MIST-RNN @cite_0 model has been developed based on a gating mechanism that is similar to GRU. This model makes the gradient decay's exponent closer to zero by using the mixed historical inputs. Although MIST-RNN can capture the long-term dependencies well, it does not consider the temporal behaviors of exogenous variables that may affect the dynamic properties of the observation data.
@cite_18 @cite_14 @cite_26 @cite_29 @cite_6 @cite_0 @cite_19 @cite_15 @cite_16 @cite_13 @cite_20 @cite_17
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Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have been widely used for processing sequential data. However, RNNs are commonly difficult to train due to the well-known gradient vanishing and exploding problems and hard to learn long-term patterns. Long short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU) were developed to address these problems, but the use of hyperbolic tangent and the sigmoid action functions results in gradient decay over layers. Consequently, construction of an efficiently trainable deep network is challenging. In addition, all the neurons in an RNN layer are entangled together and their behaviour is hard to interpret. To address these problems, a new type of RNN, referred to as independently recurrent neural network (IndRNN), is proposed in this paper, where neurons in the same layer are independent of each other and they are connected across layers. We have shown that an IndRNN can be easily regulated to prevent the gradient exploding and vanishing problems while allowing the network to learn long-term dependencies. Moreover, an IndRNN can work with non-saturated activation functions such as relu (rectified linear unit) and be still trained robustly. Multiple IndRNNs can be stacked to construct a network that is deeper than the existing RNNs. Experimental results have shown that the proposed IndRNN is able to process very long sequences (over 5000 time steps), can be used to construct very deep networks (21 layers used in the experiment) and still be trained robustly. Better performances have been achieved on various tasks by using IndRNNs compared with the traditional RNN and LSTM. Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) are powerful sequence models that were believed to be difficult to train, and as a result they were rarely used in machine learning applications. This thesis presents methods that overcome the difficulty of training RNNs, and applications of RNNs to challenging problems. We first describe a new probabilistic sequence model that combines Restricted Boltzmann Machines and RNNs. The new model is more powerful than similar models while being less difficult to train. Next, we present a new variant of the Hessian-free (HF) optimizer and show that it can train RNNs on tasks that have extreme long-range temporal dependencies, which were previously considered to be impossibly hard. We then apply HF to character-level language modelling and get excellent results. We also apply HF to optimal control and obtain RNN control laws that can successfully operate under conditions of delayed feedback and unknown disturbances. Finally, we describe a random parameter initialization scheme that allows gradient descent with momentum to train RNNs on problems with long-term dependencies. This directly contradicts widespread beliefs about the inability of first-order methods to do so, and suggests that previous attempts at training RNNs failed partly due to flaws in the random initialization. Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have achieved state-of-the-art performance on many diverse tasks, from machine translation to surgical activity recognition, yet training RNNs to capture long-term dependencies remains difficult. To date, the vast majority of successful RNN architectures alleviate this problem using nearly-additive connections between states, as introduced by long short-term memory (LSTM). We take an orthogonal approach and introduce MIST RNNs, a NARX RNN architecture that allows direct connections from the very distant past. We show that MIST RNNs 1) exhibit superior vanishing-gradient properties in comparison to LSTM and previously-proposed NARX RNNs; 2) are far more efficient than previously-proposed NARX RNN architectures, requiring even fewer computations than LSTM; and 3) improve performance substantially over LSTM and Clockwork RNNs on tasks requiring very long-term dependencies. Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) such as long short-term memory and gated recurrent units are pivotal building blocks across a broad spectrum of sequence modeling problems. This paper proposes a recurrently controlled recurrent network (RCRN) for expressive and powerful sequence encoding. More concretely, the key idea behind our approach is to learn the recurrent gating functions using recurrent networks. Our architecture is split into two components - a controller cell and a listener cell whereby the recurrent controller actively influences the compositionality of the listener cell. We conduct extensive experiments on a myriad of tasks in the NLP domain such as sentiment analysis (SST, IMDb, Amazon reviews, etc.), question classification (TREC), entailment classification (SNLI, SciTail), answer selection (WikiQA, TrecQA) and reading comprehension (NarrativeQA). Across all 26 datasets, our results demonstrate that RCRN not only consistently outperforms BiLSTMs but also stacked BiLSTMs, suggesting that our controller architecture might be a suitable replacement for the widely adopted stacked architecture. Additionally, RCRN achieves state-of-the-art results on several well-established datasets.