Understanding why students stopout will help in understanding how students learn in MOOCs. In this report, part of a 3 unit compendium, we describe how we build accurate predictive models of MOOC student stopout. We document a scalable, stopout prediction methodology, end to end, from raw source data to model analysis. We attempted to predict stopout for the Fall 2012 offering of 6.002x. This involved the meticulous and crowd-sourced engineering of over 25 predictive features extracted for thousands of students, the creation of temporal and non-temporal data representations for use in predictive modeling, the derivation of over 10 thousand models with a variety of state-of-the-art machine learning techniques and the analysis of feature importance by examining over 70000 models. We found that stop out prediction is a tractable problem. Our models achieved an AUC (receiver operating characteristic area-under-the-curve) as high as 0.95 (and generally 0.88) when predicting one week in advance. Even with more difficult prediction problems, such as predicting stop out at the end of the course with only one weeks' data, the models attained AUCs of 0.7.
There are three noteworthy accomplishments of our study when compared to these studies above. First, throughout our study we emphasize on variable feature engineering from the click stream data and thus generate complex features that explain student behavior longitudinally @cite_56 . We attribute success of our models to these variables (more then the models themselves) as we achieve AUC in the range of 0.88-0.90 for one week ahead for the cohort.
@cite_56
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Recommender problems with large and dynamic item pools are ubiquitous in web applications like content optimization, online advertising and web search. Despite the availability of rich item meta-data, excess heterogeneity at the item level often requires inclusion of item-specific "factors" (or weights) in the model. However, since estimating item factors is computationally intensive, it poses a challenge for time-sensitive recommender problems where it is important to rapidly learn factors for new items (e.g., news articles, event updates, tweets) in an online fashion. In this paper, we propose a novel method called FOBFM (Fast Online Bilinear Factor Model) to learn item-specific factors quickly through online regression. The online regression for each item can be performed independently and hence the procedure is fast, scalable and easily parallelizable. However, the convergence of these independent regressions can be slow due to high dimensionality. The central idea of our approach is to use a large amount of historical data to initialize the online models based on offline features and learn linear projections that can effectively reduce the dimensionality. We estimate the rank of our linear projections by taking recourse to online model selection based on optimizing predictive likelihood. Through extensive experiments, we show that our method significantly and uniformly outperforms other competitive methods and obtains relative lifts that are in the range of 10-15 in terms of predictive log-likelihood, 200-300 for a rank correlation metric on a proprietary My Yahoo! dataset; it obtains 9 reduction in root mean squared error over the previously best method on a benchmark MovieLens dataset using a time-based train test data split. The recently proposed self-ensembling methods have achieved promising results in deep semi-supervised learning, which penalize inconsistent predictions of unlabeled data under different perturbations. However, they only consider adding perturbations to each single data point, while ignoring the connections between data samples. In this paper, we propose a novel method, called Smooth Neighbors on Teacher Graphs (SNTG). In SNTG, a graph is constructed based on the predictions of the teacher model, i.e., the implicit self-ensemble of models. Then the graph serves as a similarity measure with respect to which the representations of "similar" neighboring points are learned to be smooth on the low-dimensional manifold. We achieve state-of-the-art results on semi-supervised learning benchmarks. The error rates are 9.89 , 3.99 for CIFAR-10 with 4000 labels, SVHN with 500 labels, respectively. In particular, the improvements are significant when the labels are fewer. For the non-augmented MNIST with only 20 labels, the error rate is reduced from previous 4.81 to 1.36 . Our method also shows robustness to noisy labels. We study student performance prediction in Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs), where the objective is to predict whether a user will be Correct on First Attempt (CFA) in answering a question. In doing so, we develop novel techniques that leverage behavioral data collected by MOOC platforms. Using video-watching clickstream data from one of our MOOCs, we first extract summary quantities (e.g., fraction played, number of pauses) for each user-video pair, and show how certain intervals sets of values for these behaviors quantify that a pair is more likely to be CFA or not for the corresponding question. Motivated by these findings, our methods are designed to determine suitable intervals from training data and to use the corresponding success estimates as learning features in prediction algorithms. Tested against a large set of empirical data, we find that our schemes outperform standard algorithms (i.e., without behavioral data) for all datasets and metrics tested. Moreover, the improvement is particularly pronounced when considering the first few course weeks, demonstrating the “early detection” capability of such clickstream data. We also discuss how CFA prediction can be used to depict graphs of the Social Learning Network (SLN) of students, which can help instructors manage courses more effectively. Earlier studies have suggested that higher education institutions could harness the predictive power of Learning Management System (LMS) data to develop reporting tools that identify at-risk students and allow for more timely pedagogical interventions. This paper confirms and extends this proposition by providing data from an international research project investigating which student online activities accurately predict academic achievement. Analysis of LMS tracking data from a Blackboard Vista-supported course identified 15 variables demonstrating a significant simple correlation with student final grade. Regression modelling generated a best-fit predictive model for this course which incorporates key variables such as total number of discussion messages posted, total number of mail messages sent, and total number of assessments completed and which explains more than 30 of the variation in student final grade. Logistic modelling demonstrated the predictive power of this model, which correctly identified 81 of students who achieved a failing grade. Moreover, network analysis of course discussion forums afforded insight into the development of the student learning community by identifying disconnected students, patterns of student-to-student communication, and instructor positioning within the network. This study affirms that pedagogically meaningful information can be extracted from LMS-generated student tracking data, and discusses how these findings are informing the development of a customizable dashboard-like reporting tool for educators that will extract and visualize real-time data on student engagement and likelihood of success.