Our aging population increasingly suffers from multiple chronic diseases simultaneously, necessitating the comprehensive treatment of these conditions. Finding the optimal set of drugs for a combinatorial set of diseases is a combinatorial pattern exploration problem. Association rule mining is a popular tool for such problems, but the requirement of health care for finding causal, rather than associative, patterns renders association rule mining unsuitable. To address this issue, we propose a novel framework based on the Rubin-Neyman causal model for extracting causal rules from observational data, correcting for a number of common biases. Specifically, given a set of interventions and a set of items that define subpopulations (e.g., diseases), we wish to find all subpopulations in which effective intervention combinations exist and in each such subpopulation, we wish to find all intervention combinations such that dropping any intervention from this combination will reduce the efficacy of the treatment. A key aspect of our framework is the concept of closed intervention sets which extend the concept of quantifying the effect of a single intervention to a set of concurrent interventions. We also evaluated our causal rule mining framework on the Electronic Health Records (EHR) data of a large cohort of patients from Mayo Clinic and showed that the patterns we extracted are sufficiently rich to explain the controversial findings in the medical literature regarding the effect of a class of cholesterol drugs on Type-II Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM).
Even extending association rules mining to causal rule mining has been attempted before @cite_24 @cite_25 @cite_30 . @cite_24 used odds ratio to identify causal patterns and later extended their technique @cite_30 to handle large data set. Their technique, however, is not rooted in a causal model and hence offers no protection against computing systematically biased estimates. In their proposed causal decision trees @cite_23 , they used the potential outcome framework, but still have not addressed correction for various biases, including confounding.
@cite_24 @cite_30 @cite_25 @cite_23
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Mining for association rules in market basket data has proved a fruitful area of research. Measures such as conditional probability (confidence) and correlation have been used to infer rules of the form “the existence of item A implies the existence of item B.” However, such rules indicate only a statistical relationship between A and B. They do not specify the nature of the relationship: whether the presence of A causes the presence of B, or the converse, or some other attribute or phenomenon causes both to appear together. In applications, knowing such causal relationships is extremely useful for enhancing understanding and effecting change. While distinguishing causality from correlation is a truly difficult problem, recent work in statistics and Bayesian learning provide some avenues of attack. In these fields, the goal has generally been to learn complete causal models, which are essentially impossible to learn in large-scale data mining applications with a large number of variables. In this paper, we consider the problem of determining casual relationships, instead of mere associations, when mining market basket data. We identify some problems with the direct application of Bayesian learning ideas to mining large databases, concerning both the scalability of algorithms and the appropriateness of the statistical techniques, and introduce some initial ideas for dealing with these problems. We present experimental results from applying our algorithms on several large, real-world data sets. The results indicate that the approach proposed here is both computationally feasible and successful in identifying interesting causal structures. An interesting outcome is that it is perhaps easier to infer the lack of causality than to infer causality, information that is useful in preventing erroneous decision making. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are the most effective approach to causal discovery, but in many circumstances it is impossible to conduct RCTs. Therefore, observational studies based on passively observed data are widely accepted as an alternative to RCTs. However, in observational studies, prior knowledge is required to generate the hypotheses about the cause-effect relationships to be tested, and hence they can only be applied to problems with available domain knowledge and a handful of variables. In practice, many datasets are of high dimensionality, which leaves observational studies out of the opportunities for causal discovery from such a wealth of data sources. In another direction, many efficient data mining methods have been developed to identify associations among variables in large datasets. The problem is that causal relationships imply associations, but the reverse is not always true. However, we can see the synergy between the two paradigms here. Specifically, association rule mining can be used to deal with the high-dimensionality problem, whereas observational studies can be utilised to eliminate noncausal associations. In this article, we propose the concept of causal rules (CRs) and develop an algorithm for mining CRs in large datasets. We use the idea of retrospective cohort studies to detect CRs based on the results of association rule mining. Experiments with both synthetic and real-world datasets have demonstrated the effectiveness and efficiency of CR mining. In comparison with the commonly used causal discovery methods, the proposed approach generally is faster and has better or competitive performance in finding correct or sensible causes. It is also capable of finding a cause consisting of multiple variables—a feature that other causal discovery methods do not possess. Association rules discovered through attribute-oriented induction are commonly used in data mining tools to express relationships between variables. However, causal inference algorithms discover more concise relationships between variables, namely, relations of direct cause. These algorithms produce regressive structured equation models for continuous linear data and Bayes networks for discrete data. This work compares the effectiveness of causal inference algorithms with association rule induction for discovering patterns in discrete data. Discovering causal relationships in large databases of observational data is challenging. The pioneering work in this area was rooted in the theory of Bayesian network (BN) learning, which however, is a NP-complete problem. Hence several constraint-based algorithms have been developed to efficiently discover causations in large databases. These methods usually use the idea of BN learning, directly or indirectly, and are focused on causal relationships with single cause variables. In this paper, we propose an approach to mine causal rules in large databases of binary variables. Our method expands the scope of causality discovery to causal relationships with multiple cause variables, and we utilise partial association tests to exclude noncausal associations, to ensure the high reliability of discovered causal rules. Furthermore an efficient algorithm is designed for the tests in large databases. We assess the method with a set of real-world diagnostic data. The results show that our method can effectively discover interesting causal rules in large databases.