In this paper we propose a new method to predict the final destination of vehicle trips based on their initial partial trajectories. We first review how we obtained clustering of trajectories that describes user behaviour. Then, we explain how we model main traffic flow patterns by a mixture of 2d Gaussian distributions. This yielded a density based clustering of locations, which produces a data driven grid of similar points within each pattern. We present how this model can be used to predict the final destination of a new trajectory based on their first locations using a two step procedure: We first assign the new trajectory to the clusters it mot likely belongs. Secondly, we use characteristics from trajectories inside these clusters to predict the final destination. Finally, we present experimental results of our methods for classification of trajectories and final destination prediction on datasets of timestamped GPS-Location of taxi trips. We test our methods on two different datasets, to assess the capacity of our method to adapt automatically to different subsets.
Monreale @cite_0 built a decision tree, named T-pattern Tree based on extracted movement patterns and predicted the next location of a new trajectory finding the best matching path in the tree. Tiesyte and Jensen @cite_13 proposed a nearest-neighbour trajectory method that utilised distance measures to identify the historical trajectory most similar to the current partial trajectory.
@cite_0 @cite_13
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The pervasiveness of mobile devices and location based services is leading to an increasing volume of mobility data.This side eect provides the opportunity for innovative methods that analyse the behaviors of movements. In this paper we propose WhereNext, which is a method aimed at predicting with a certain level of accuracy the next location of a moving object. The prediction uses previously extracted movement patterns named Trajectory Patterns, which are a concise representation of behaviors of moving objects as sequences of regions frequently visited with a typical travel time. A decision tree, named T-pattern Tree, is built and evaluated with a formal training and test process. The tree is learned from the Trajectory Patterns that hold a certain area and it may be used as a predictor of the next location of a new trajectory finding the best matching path in the tree. Three dierent best matching methods to classify a new moving object are proposed and their impact on the quality of prediction is studied extensively. Using Trajectory Patterns as predictive rules has the following implications: (I) the learning depends on the movement of all available objects in a certain area instead of on the individual history of an object; (II) the prediction tree intrinsically contains the spatio-temporal properties that have emerged from the data and this allows us to define matching methods that striclty depend on the properties of such movements. In addition, we propose a set of other measures, that evaluate a priori the predictive power of a set of Trajectory Patterns. This measures were tuned on a real life case study. Finally, an exhaustive set of experiments and results on the real dataset are presented. Location is a key context ingredient and many existing pervasive applications rely on the current locations of their users. However, with the ability to predict the future location and movement behavior of a user, the usability of these applications can be greatly improved. In this paper, we propose an approach to predict both the intended destination and the future route of a person. Rather than predicting the destination and future route separately, we have focused on making prediction in an integrated way by exploiting personal movement data (i.e. trajectories) collected by GPS. Since trajectories contain daily whereabouts information of a person, the proposed approach first detects the significant places where the person may depart from or go to using a clustering-based algorithm called FBM (Forward-Backward Matching), then abstracts the trajectories based on a space partitioning method, and finally extracts movement patterns from the abstracted trajectories using an extended CRPM (Continuous Route Pattern Mining) algorithm. Extracted movement patterns are organized in terms of origin-destination couples. The prediction is made based on a pattern tree built from these movement patterns. With the real personal movement data of 14 participants, we conducted a number of experiments to evaluate the performance of our system. The results show that our approach can achieve approximately 80 and 60 accuracy in destination prediction and 1-step prediction, respectively, and result in an average deviation of approximately 60 m in continuous future route prediction. Finally, based on the proposed approach, we implemented a prototype running on mobile phones, which can extract patterns from a user's historical movement data and predict the destination and future route. We consider the problem of constructing street networks from geo-referenced trajectory data: Given a set of trajectories in the plane, compute a street network that represents all trajectories in the set. We present a simple and practical incremental algorithm that is based on partial matching of the trajectories to the graph. We use minimumlink paths to reduce the complexity of the reconstructed graph. We provide quality guarantees and experimental results based on both real and synthetic data. For the partial matching we introduce a new variant of partial Frechet distance. We introduce a new probabilistic proximity search algorithm for range and A"-nearest neighbor (A"-NN) searching in both coordinate and metric spaces. Although there exist solutions for these problems, they boil down to a linear scan when the space is intrinsically high dimensional, as is the case in many pattern recognition tasks. This, for example, renders the A"-NN approach to classification rather slow in large databases. Our novel idea is to predict closeness between elements according to how they order their distances toward a distinguished set of anchor objects. Each element in the space sorts the anchor objects from closest to farthest to it and the similarity between orders turns out to be an excellent predictor of the closeness between the corresponding elements. We present extensive experiments comparing our method against state-of-the-art exact and approximate techniques, both in synthetic and real, metric and nonmetric databases, measuring both CPU time and distance computations. The experiments demonstrate that our technique almost always improves upon the performance of alternative techniques, in some cases by a wide margin.