Trajectory prediction (TP) is of great importance for a wide range of location-based applications in intelligent transport systems such as location-based advertising, route planning, traffic management, and early warning systems. In the last few years, the widespread use of GPS navigation systems and wireless communication technology enabled vehicles has resulted in huge volumes of trajectory data. The task of utilizing this data employing spatio-temporal techniques for trajectory prediction in an efficient and accurate manner is an ongoing research problem. Existing TP approaches are limited to short-term predictions. Moreover, they cannot handle a large volume of trajectory data for long-term prediction. To address these limitations, we propose a scalable clustering and Markov chain based hybrid framework, called Traj-clusiVAT-based TP, for both short-term and long-term trajectory prediction, which can handle a large number of overlapping trajectories in a dense road network. Traj-clusiVAT can also determine the number of clusters, which represent different movement behaviours in input trajectory data. In our experiments, we compare our proposed approach with a mixed Markov model (MMM)-based scheme, and a trajectory clustering, NETSCAN-based TP method for both short- and long-term trajectory predictions. We performed our experiments on two real, vehicle trajectory datasets, including a large-scale trajectory dataset consisting of 3.28 million trajectories obtained from 15,061 taxis in Singapore over a period of one month. Experimental results on two real trajectory datasets show that our proposed approach outperforms the existing approaches in terms of both short- and long-term prediction performances, based on prediction accuracy and distance error (in km).
Most of the work done in the area of trajectory prediction either use synthetic datasets @cite_28 @cite_40 @cite_6 @cite_13 or real datasets with small to medium numbers of data points @cite_50 @cite_4 @cite_31 . Most of them cannot handle big trajectory datasets. There have been several attempts to demonstrate trajectory prediction on real data having a large number of samples. For example, @cite_14 uses a real dataset consisting of @math million trajectories ( @math million GPS points) as a population, but only small subsets having a maximum @math trajectories are used in their experiments. To the best of our knowledge, the largest real dataset used was in @cite_3 , consisting of @math million GPS points. They utilized @cite_3 the MapReduce model in their implementation to handle large datasets. In this paper, we use the GPS traces of @math taxis in Singapore over a period of one month. We extract @math million passenger trajectories consisting of @math million GPS logs from this data for trajectory prediction task. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time trajectory prediction task has been performed on such a large number of real-world road network trajectories.
@cite_14 @cite_4 @cite_28 @cite_6 @cite_3 @cite_40 @cite_50 @cite_31 @cite_13
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In this paper, we propose a citywide and real-time model for estimating the travel time of any path (represented as a sequence of connected road segments) in real time in a city, based on the GPS trajectories of vehicles received in current time slots and over a period of history as well as map data sources. Though this is a strategically important task in many traffic monitoring and routing systems, the problem has not been well solved yet given the following three challenges. The first is the data sparsity problem, i.e., many road segments may not be traveled by any GPS-equipped vehicles in present time slot. In most cases, we cannot find a trajectory exactly traversing a query path either. Second, for the fragment of a path with trajectories, they are multiple ways of using (or combining) the trajectories to estimate the corresponding travel time. Finding an optimal combination is a challenging problem, subject to a tradeoff between the length of a path and the number of trajectories traversing the path (i.e., support). Third, we need to instantly answer users' queries which may occur in any part of a given city. This calls for an efficient, scalable and effective solution that can enable a citywide and real-time travel time estimation. To address these challenges, we model different drivers' travel times on different road segments in different time slots with a three dimension tensor. Combined with geospatial, temporal and historical contexts learned from trajectories and map data, we fill in the tensor's missing values through a context-aware tensor decomposition approach. We then devise and prove an object function to model the aforementioned tradeoff, with which we find the most optimal concatenation of trajectories for an estimate through a dynamic programming solution. In addition, we propose using frequent trajectory patterns (mined from historical trajectories) to scale down the candidates of concatenation and a suffix-tree-based index to manage the trajectories received in the present time slot. We evaluate our method based on extensive experiments, using GPS trajectories generated by more than 32,000 taxis over a period of two months. The results demonstrate the effectiveness, efficiency and scalability of our method beyond baseline approaches. User mobility has given rise to a variety of Web applications, in which the global positioning system (GPS) plays many important roles in bridging between these applications and end users. As a kind of human behavior, transportation modes, such as walking and driving, can provide pervasive computing systems with more contextual information and enrich a user's mobility with informative knowledge. In this article, we report on an approach based on supervised learning to automatically infer users' transportation modes, including driving, walking, taking a bus and riding a bike, from raw GPS logs. Our approach consists of three parts: a change point-based segmentation method, an inference model and a graph-based post-processing algorithm. First, we propose a change point-based segmentation method to partition each GPS trajectory into separate segments of different transportation modes. Second, from each segment, we identify a set of sophisticated features, which are not affected by differing traffic conditions (e.g., a person's direction when in a car is constrained more by the road than any change in traffic conditions). Later, these features are fed to a generative inference model to classify the segments of different modes. Third, we conduct graph-based postprocessing to further improve the inference performance. This postprocessing algorithm considers both the commonsense constraints of the real world and typical user behaviors based on locations in a probabilistic manner. The advantages of our method over the related works include three aspects. (1) Our approach can effectively segment trajectories containing multiple transportation modes. (2) Our work mined the location constraints from user-generated GPS logs, while being independent of additional sensor data and map information like road networks and bus stops. (3) The model learned from the dataset of some users can be applied to infer GPS data from others. Using the GPS logs collected by 65 people over a period of 10 months, we evaluated our approach via a set of experiments. As a result, based on the change-point-based segmentation method and Decision Tree-based inference model, we achieved prediction accuracy greater than 71 percent. Further, using the graph-based post-processing algorithm, the performance attained a 4-percent enhancement. Location is a key context ingredient and many existing pervasive applications rely on the current locations of their users. However, with the ability to predict the future location and movement behavior of a user, the usability of these applications can be greatly improved. In this paper, we propose an approach to predict both the intended destination and the future route of a person. Rather than predicting the destination and future route separately, we have focused on making prediction in an integrated way by exploiting personal movement data (i.e. trajectories) collected by GPS. Since trajectories contain daily whereabouts information of a person, the proposed approach first detects the significant places where the person may depart from or go to using a clustering-based algorithm called FBM (Forward-Backward Matching), then abstracts the trajectories based on a space partitioning method, and finally extracts movement patterns from the abstracted trajectories using an extended CRPM (Continuous Route Pattern Mining) algorithm. Extracted movement patterns are organized in terms of origin-destination couples. The prediction is made based on a pattern tree built from these movement patterns. With the real personal movement data of 14 participants, we conducted a number of experiments to evaluate the performance of our system. The results show that our approach can achieve approximately 80 and 60 accuracy in destination prediction and 1-step prediction, respectively, and result in an average deviation of approximately 60 m in continuous future route prediction. Finally, based on the proposed approach, we implemented a prototype running on mobile phones, which can extract patterns from a user's historical movement data and predict the destination and future route. The collection of huge amount of tracking data made possible by the widespread use of GPS devices, enabled the analysis of such data for several applications domains, ranging from traffic management to advertisement and social studies. However, the raw positioning data, as it is detected by GPS devices, lacks of semantic information since this data does not natively provide any additional contextual information like the places that people visited or the activities performed. Traditionally, this information is collected by hand filled questionnaire where a limited number of users are asked to annotate their tracks with the activities they have done. With the purpose of getting large amount of semantically rich trajectories, we propose an algorithm for automatically annotating raw trajectories with the activities performed by the users. To do this, we analyse the stops points trying to infer the Point Of Interest (POI) the user has visited. Based on the category of the POI and a probability measure based on the gravity law, we infer the activity performed. We experimented and evaluated the method in a real case study of car trajectories, manually annotated by users with their activities. Experimental results are encouraging and will drive our future works.