We propose to solve large scale Markowitz mean-variance (MV) portfolio allocation problem using reinforcement learning (RL). By adopting the recently developed continuous-time exploratory control framework, we formulate the exploratory MV problem in high dimensions. We further show the optimality of a multivariate Gaussian feedback policy, with time-decaying variance, in trading off exploration and exploitation. Based on a provable policy improvement theorem, we devise a scalable and data-efficient RL algorithm and conduct large scale empirical tests using data from the S&P 500 stocks. We found that our method consistently achieves over 10 annualized returns and it outperforms econometric methods and the deep RL method by large margins, for both long and medium terms of investment with monthly and daily trading.
Existing works on variance estimation and control generally divide into value based methods and policy based methods. @cite_29 obtained the Bellman's equation for the variance of reward-to-go under a fixed , given policy. @cite_15 further derived the TD(0) learning rule to estimate the variance, followed by @cite_7 which applied this value based method to an MV portfolio selection problem. It is worth noting that due to the definition of the value function (i.e., the variance penalized expected reward-to-go) in @cite_7 , Bellman's optimality principle does not hold. As a result, it is not guaranteed that a greedy policy based on the latest updated value function will eventually lead to the true global optimal policy. The second approach, the policy based RL, was proposed in @cite_16 . They also extended the work to linear function approximators and devised actor-critic algorithms for MV optimization problems for which convergence to the local optimum is guaranteed with probability one ( @cite_17 ). Related works following this line of research include @cite_18 , @cite_4 , among others. Despite the various methods mentioned above, it remains an open and interesting question in RL to search for the global optimum under the MV criterion.
@cite_18 @cite_4 @cite_7 @cite_29 @cite_15 @cite_16 @cite_17
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In many sequential decision-making problems we may want to manage risk by minimizing some measure of variability in rewards in addition to maximizing a standard criterion. Variance related risk measures are among the most common risk-sensitive criteria in finance and operations research. However, optimizing many such criteria is known to be a hard problem. In this paper, we consider both discounted and average reward Markov decision processes. For each formulation, we first define a measure of variability for a policy, which in turn gives us a set of risk-sensitive criteria to optimize. For each of these criteria, we derive a formula for computing its gradient. We then devise actor-critic algorithms that operate on three timescales--a TD critic on the fastest timescale, a policy gradient (actor) on the intermediate timescale, and a dual ascent for Lagrange multipliers on the slowest timescale. In the discounted setting, we point out the difficulty in estimating the gradient of the variance of the return and incorporate simultaneous perturbation approaches to alleviate this. The average setting, on the other hand, allows for an actor update using compatible features to estimate the gradient of the variance. We establish the convergence of our algorithms to locally risk-sensitive optimal policies. Finally, we demonstrate the usefulness of our algorithms in a traffic signal control application. In Markov decision processes (MDPs), the variance of the reward-to-go is a natural measure of uncertainty about the long term performance of a policy, and is important in domains such as finance, resource allocation, and process control. Currently however, there is no tractable procedure for calculating it in large scale MDPs. This is in contrast to the case of the expected reward-to-go, also known as the value function, for which effective simulation-based algorithms are known, and have been used successfully in various domains. In this paper we extend temporal difference (TD) learning algorithms to estimating the variance of the reward-to-go for a fixed policy. We propose variants of both TD(0) and LSTD(λ) with linear function approximation, prove their convergence, and demonstrate their utility in an option pricing problem. Our results show a dramatic improvement in terms of sample efficiency over standard Monte-Carlo methods, which are currently the state-of-the-art. With the goal to generate more scalable algorithms with higher efficiency and fewer open parameters, reinforcement learning (RL) has recently moved towards combining classical techniques from optimal control and dynamic programming with modern learning techniques from statistical estimation theory. In this vein, this paper suggests to use the framework of stochastic optimal control with path integrals to derive a novel approach to RL with parameterized policies. While solidly grounded in value function estimation and optimal control based on the stochastic Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equations, policy improvements can be transformed into an approximation problem of a path integral which has no open algorithmic parameters other than the exploration noise. The resulting algorithm can be conceived of as model-based, semi-model-based, or even model free, depending on how the learning problem is structured. The update equations have no danger of numerical instabilities as neither matrix inversions nor gradient learning rates are required. Our new algorithm demonstrates interesting similarities with previous RL research in the framework of probability matching and provides intuition why the slightly heuristically motivated probability matching approach can actually perform well. Empirical evaluations demonstrate significant performance improvements over gradient-based policy learning and scalability to high-dimensional control problems. Finally, a learning experiment on a simulated 12 degree-of-freedom robot dog illustrates the functionality of our algorithm in a complex robot learning scenario. We believe that Policy Improvement with Path Integrals (PI2) offers currently one of the most efficient, numerically robust, and easy to implement algorithms for RL based on trajectory roll-outs. This letter proposes a new reinforcement learning (RL) paradigm that explicitly takes into account input disturbance as well as modeling errors. The use of environmental models in RL is quite popular for both offline learning using simulations and for online action planning. However, the difference between the model and the real environment can lead to unpredictable, and often unwanted, results. Based on the theory of H∞ control, we consider a differential game in which a "disturbing" agent tries to make the worst possible disturbance while a "control" agent tries to make the best control input. The problem is formulated as finding a min-max solution of a value function that takes into account the amount of the reward and the norm of the disturbance. We derive online learning algorithms for estimating the value function and for calculating the worst disturbance and the best control in reference to the value function. We tested the paradigm, which we call robust reinforcement learning (RRL), on the control task of an inverted pendulum. In the linear domain, the policy and the value function learned by online algorithms coincided with those derived analytically by the linear H∞ control theory. For a fully nonlinear swing-up task, RRL achieved robust performance with changes in the pendulum weight and friction, while a standard reinforcement learning algorithm could not deal with these changes. We also applied RRL to the cart-pole swing-up task, and a robust swing-up policy was acquired.