Demand Response (DR) programs serve to reduce the consumption of electricity at times when the supply is scarce and expensive. The utility informs the aggregator of an anticipated DR event. The aggregator calls on a subset of its pool of recruited agents to reduce their electricity use. Agents are paid for reducing their energy consumption from contractually established baselines. Baselines are counter-factual consumption estimates of the energy an agent would have consumed if they were not participating in the DR program. Baselines are used to determine payments to agents. This creates an incentive for agents to inflate their baselines. We propose a novel self-reported baseline mechanism (SRBM) where each agent reports its baseline and marginal utility. These reports are strategic and need not be truthful. Based on the reported information, the aggregator selects or calls on agents to meet the load reduction target. Called agents are paid for observed reductions from their self- reported baselines. Agents who are not called face penalties for consumption shortfalls below their baselines. The mechanism is specified by the probability with which agents are called, reward prices for called agents, and penalty prices for agents who are not called. Under SRBM, we show that truthful reporting of baseline consumption and marginal utility is a dominant strategy. Thus, SRBM eliminates the incentive for agents to inflate baselines. SRBM is assured to meet the load reduction target. SRBM is also nearly efficient since it selects agents with the smallest marginal utilities, and each called agent contributes maximally to the load reduction target. Finally, we show that SRBM is almost optimal in the metric of average cost of DR provision faced by the aggregator.
Regression methods fit a model to the historical data which is used to predict the baseline @cite_4 @cite_3 . They can potentially overcome biases incurred by averaging methods @cite_1 . They often require considerable historical data for acceptable accuracy, and the models may be too simple to capture the complex behavior of individual agents.
@cite_1 @cite_4 @cite_3
2142057089 1480312878 2086688853 2047028564
Recommender problems with large and dynamic item pools are ubiquitous in web applications like content optimization, online advertising and web search. Despite the availability of rich item meta-data, excess heterogeneity at the item level often requires inclusion of item-specific "factors" (or weights) in the model. However, since estimating item factors is computationally intensive, it poses a challenge for time-sensitive recommender problems where it is important to rapidly learn factors for new items (e.g., news articles, event updates, tweets) in an online fashion. In this paper, we propose a novel method called FOBFM (Fast Online Bilinear Factor Model) to learn item-specific factors quickly through online regression. The online regression for each item can be performed independently and hence the procedure is fast, scalable and easily parallelizable. However, the convergence of these independent regressions can be slow due to high dimensionality. The central idea of our approach is to use a large amount of historical data to initialize the online models based on offline features and learn linear projections that can effectively reduce the dimensionality. We estimate the rank of our linear projections by taking recourse to online model selection based on optimizing predictive likelihood. Through extensive experiments, we show that our method significantly and uniformly outperforms other competitive methods and obtains relative lifts that are in the range of 10-15 in terms of predictive log-likelihood, 200-300 for a rank correlation metric on a proprietary My Yahoo! dataset; it obtains 9 reduction in root mean squared error over the previously best method on a benchmark MovieLens dataset using a time-based train test data split. Given a collection of r ≥ 2 linear regression problems in p dimensions, suppose that the regression coefficients share partially common supports of size at most s. This set-up suggests the use of l1 l∞-regularized regression for joint estimation of the p×r matrix of regression coefficients. We analyze the high-dimensional scaling of l1 l∞-regularized quadratic programming, considering both consistency rates in l∞-norm, and how the minimal sample size n required for consistent variable selection scales with model dimension, sparsity, and overlap between the supports. We first establish bounds on the l∞-error as well sufficient conditions for exact variable selection for fixed design matrices, as well as for designs drawn randomly from general Gaussian distributions. Specializing to the case r = 2 linear regression problems with standard Gaussian designs whose supports overlap in a fraction α ∈ [0,1] of their entries, we prove that l1 l∞-regularized method undergoes a phase transition characterized by the rescaled sample size θ1,∞(n, p, s, α) = n (4 - 3 α) s log(p-(2- α) s) . An implication is that the use of l1 l∞-regularization yields improved statistical efficiency if the overlap parameter is large enough ( α >; 2 3), but has worse statistical efficiency than a naive Lasso-based approach for moderate to small overlap (α <; 2 3 ). Empirical simulations illustrate the close agreement between theory and actual behavior in practice. These results show that caution must be exercised in applying l1 l∞ block regularization: if the data does not match its structure very closely, it can impair statistical performance relative to computationally less expensive schemes. The additive isotonic least-squares regression model has been fit using a sequential pooled adjacent violators algorithm, estimating each isotonic component in turn, and looping until convergence. However, the individual components are not, in general, estimable. The sum of the components, i.e. the expected value of the response, has a unique estimate, which can be found using a single cone projection. Estimators for the individual components are then easily obtained, which are unique if the conditions for estimability hold. Parametrically modelled covariates are easily included in the cone projection specification. The cone structure also provides information about the degrees of freedom of the fit, which can be used in inference methods, variable selection, and estimation of the model variance. Simulations show that these methods can compare favourably to standard parametric methods, even when the parametric assumptions are correct. The estimation and inference methods can be extended to other constraints such as convex regression or isotonic regression on partial orderings. In multiple regression it is shown that parameter estimates based on minimum residual sum of squares have a high probability of being unsatisfactory, if not incorrect, if the prediction vectors are not orthogonal. Proposed is an estimation procedure based on adding small positive quantities to the diagonal of X′X. Introduced is the ridge trace, a method for showing in two dimensions the effects of nonorthogonality. It is then shown how to augment X′X to obtain biased estimates with smaller mean square error.