The possibility to analyze, quantify and forecast epidemic outbreaks is fundamental when devising effective disease containment strategies. Policy makers are faced with the intricate task of drafting realistically implementable policies that strike a balance between risk management and cost. Two major techniques policy makers have at their disposal are: epidemic modeling and contact tracing. Models are used to forecast the evolution of the epidemic both globally and regionally, while contact tracing is used to reconstruct the chain of people who have been potentially infected, so that they can be tested, isolated and treated immediately. However, both techniques might provide limited information, especially during an already advanced crisis when the need for action is urgent. In this paper we propose an alternative approach that goes beyond epidemic modeling and contact tracing, and leverages behavioral data generated by mobile carrier networks to evaluate contagion risk on a per-user basis. The individual risk represents the loss incurred by not isolating or treating a specific person, both in terms of how likely it is for this person to spread the disease as well as how many secondary infections it will cause. To this aim, we develop a model, named Progmosis, which quantifies this risk based on movement and regional aggregated statistics about infection rates. We develop and release an open-source tool that calculates this risk based on cellular network events. We simulate a realistic epidemic scenarios, based on an Ebola virus outbreak; we find that gradually restricting the mobility of a subset of individuals reduces the number of infected people after 30 days by 24 .
Our work relies on mobile phone call records for estimating risk transfer in a population. The suitability of CDRs for tracking population movements and identification of spatial events in populations has been shown by @cite_12 and @cite_1 . Furthermore, when it comes to infectivity modeling, in @cite_4 show that simple interaction potential measures, such as the total number of a user's connections (total degree), perform almost as well as more complex measures of interaction, such as individually weighted links. In further work the total node degree might be used to approximate a user's potential for contact. Finally, in this work we do not modify the interaction network over time. Such modifications, orthogonal to our approach, are discussed in @cite_22 , and can be accounted for by having a time-dependent contact network.
@cite_4 @cite_1 @cite_22 @cite_12
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The analysis of multiple datasets on users’ behaviors opens interesting information fusion possibilities and, at the same time, creates a potential for re-identification and de-anonymization of users’ data. On the one hand, this kind of approaches can breach users’ privacy despite anonymization. On the other hand, combining different datasets is a key enabler for advanced context-awareness in that information from multiple sources can complement and enrich each other. In this work we analyze different anonymized mobility datasets in the direction of highlighting re-identification and information fusion possibilities. In particular we focus on call detail record (CDR) datasets released by mobile telecom operators and datasets comprising geo-localized messages released by social network sites. Results shows that: (1) in line with previous findings, few (about 4) data points are enough to uniquely pin point the majority (90 ) of the users, (2) more than 20 of CDR users have a single social network user exhibiting a number of matching data points. We speculate that these two users might be the same person. (3) We derive an estimate of the probability of two users begin the same person given the number of data points they have in common, and estimate that for 3 of the social network users we can find a CDR user very likely (>90 probability) to be the same person. Continuous personal position information has been attracting attention in a variety of service and research areas. In recent years, many studies have applied the telecommunication histories of mobile phones (CDRs: call detail records) to position acquisition. Although large-scale and long-term data are accumulated from CDRs through everyday use of mobile phones, the spatial resolution of CDRs is lower than that of existing positioning technologies. Therefore, interpolating spatiotemporal positions of such sparse CDRs in accordance with human behavior models will facilitate services and researches. In this paper, we propose a new method to compensate for CDR drawbacks in tracking positions. We generate as many candidate routes as possible in the spatiotemporal domain using trip patterns interpolated using road and railway networks and select the most likely route from them. Trip patterns are feasible combinations between stay places that are detected from individual location histories in CDRs. The most likely route could be estimated through comparing candidate routes to observed CDRs during a target day. We also show the assessment of our method using CDRs and GPS logs obtained in the experimental survey. Models of human mobility have broad applicability in urban planning, ecology, epidemiology, and other fields. Starting with Call Detail Records (CDRs) from a cellular telephone network that have gone through a straightforward anonymization procedure, the prior WHERE modeling approach produces synthetic CDRs for a synthetic population. The accuracy of WHERE has been validated against billions of location samples for hundreds of thousands of cell phones in the New York and Los Angeles metropolitan areas. In this paper, we introduce DP-WHERE, which modifies WHERE by adding controlled noise to achieve differential privacy, a strict definition of privacy that makes no assumptions about the power or background knowledge of a potential adversary. We also present experiments showing that the accuracy of DP-WHERE remains close to that of WHERE and of real CDRs. With this work, we aim to enable the creation and possible release of synthetic models that capture the mobility patterns of real metropolitan populations while preserving privacy. In this study, with Singapore as an example, we demonstrate how we can use mobile phone call detail record (CDR) data, which contains millions of anonymous users, to extract individual mobility networks comparable to the activity-based approach. Such an approach is widely used in the transportation planning practice to develop urban micro simulations of individual daily activities and travel; yet it depends highly on detailed travel survey data to capture individual activity-based behavior. We provide an innovative data mining framework that synthesizes the state-of-the-art techniques in extracting mobility patterns from raw mobile phone CDR data, and design a pipeline that can translate the massive and passive mobile phone records to meaningful spatial human mobility patterns readily interpretable for urban and transportation planning purposes. With growing ubiquitous mobile sensing, and shrinking labor and fiscal resources in the public sector globally, the method presented in this research can be used as a low-cost alternative for transportation and planning agencies to understand the human activity patterns in cities, and provide targeted plans for future sustainable development.