A central question for knowledge representation is how to encode and handle uncertain knowledge adequately. We introduce the probabilistic description logic ALCP that is designed for representing context-dependent knowledge, where the actual context taking place is uncertain. ALCP allows the expression of logical dependencies on the domain and probabilistic dependencies on the possible contexts. In order to draw probabilistic conclusions, we employ the principle of maximum entropy. We provide reasoning algorithms for this logic, and show that it satisfies several desirable properties of probabilistic logics.
Many probabilistic DLs have also been considered in the last decades @cite_15 @cite_6 @cite_20 . Our approach is closest to Bayesian DLs @cite_23 @cite_16 and disponte @cite_14 . The greatest difference with the former lies in the fact that KBs do not require a complete specification of the probability distribution, but only a set of probabilistic constraints. Moreover, the previous formalisms consider only the sceptical degree of belief, while we are interested in the full belief interval. In contrast to disponte , is capable of expressing both, logical and probabilistic dependencies between the axioms in a KB; in addition, disponte requires all uncertainty degrees to be assigned as mutually independent point probabilities, while allows for a more flexible specification.
@cite_14 @cite_6 @cite_23 @cite_15 @cite_16 @cite_20
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We present DISPONTE, a semantics for probabilistic ontologies that is based on the distribution semantics for probabilistic logic programs. In DISPONTE the axioms of a probabilistic ontology can be annotated with an epistemic or a statistical probability. The epistemic probability represents a degree of confidence in the axiom, while the statistical probability considers the populations to which the axiom is applied. We investigate the class of computable probability distributions and explore the fundamental limitations of using this class to describe and compute conditional distributions. In addition to proving the existence of noncomputable conditional distributions, and thus ruling out the possibility of generic probabilistic inference algorithms (even inefficient ones), we highlight some positive results showing that posterior inference is possible in the presence of additional structure like exchangeability and noise, both of which are common in Bayesian hierarchical modeling. This theoretical work bears on the development of probabilistic programming languages (which enable the specification of complex probabilistic models) and their implementations (which can be used to perform Bayesian reasoning). The probabilistic programming approach is particularly well suited for defining infinite-dimensional, recursively-defined stochastic processes of the sort used in nonparametric Bayesian statistics. We present a new construction of the Mondrian process as a partition-valued Markov process in continuous time, which can be viewed as placing a distribution on an infinite kd-tree data structure. (Copies available exclusively from MIT Libraries, Rm. 14-0551, Cambridge, MA 02139-4307. Ph. 617-253-5668; Fax 617-253-1690.) The DL-Litefamily of tractable description logics lies between the semantic web languages RDFS and OWL Lite. In this paper, we present a probabilistic generalization of the DL-Litedescription logics, which is based on Bayesian networks. As an important feature, the new probabilistic description logics allow for flexibly combining terminological and assertional pieces of probabilistic knowledge. We show that the new probabilistic description logics are rich enough to properly extend both the DL-Litedescription logics as well as Bayesian networks. We also show that satisfiability checking and query processing in the new probabilistic description logics is reducible to satisfiability checking and query processing in the DL-Litefamily. Furthermore, we show that satisfiability checking and answering unions of conjunctive queries in the new logics can be done in LogSpace in the data complexity. For this reason, the new probabilistic description logics are very promising formalisms for data-intensive applications in the Semantic Web involving probabilistic uncertainty. Objective Build probabilistic topic model representations of hospital admissions processes and compare the ability of such models to predict clinical order patterns as compared to preconstructed order sets. @PARASPLIT Materials and Methods The authors evaluated the first 24 hours of structured electronic health record data for > 10 K inpatients. Drawing an analogy between structured items (e.g., clinical orders) to words in a text document, the authors performed latent Dirichlet allocation probabilistic topic modeling. These topic models use initial clinical information to predict clinical orders for a separate validation set of > 4 K patients. The authors evaluated these topic model-based predictions vs existing human-authored order sets by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, precision, and recall for subsequent clinical orders. @PARASPLIT Results Existing order sets predict clinical orders used within 24 hours with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.81, precision 16 , and recall 35 . This can be improved to 0.90, 24 , and 47 ( P < 10−20) by using probabilistic topic models to summarize clinical data into up to 32 topics. Many of these latent topics yield natural clinical interpretations (e.g., “critical care,” “pneumonia,” “neurologic evaluation”). @PARASPLIT Discussion Existing order sets tend to provide nonspecific, process-oriented aid, with usability limitations impairing more precise, patient-focused support. Algorithmic summarization has the potential to breach this usability barrier by automatically inferring patient context, but with potential tradeoffs in interpretability. @PARASPLIT Conclusion Probabilistic topic modeling provides an automated approach to detect thematic trends in patient care and generate decision support content. A potential use case finds related clinical orders for decision support.