Click-through rate (CTR) prediction is a critical task in online advertising systems. A large body of research considers each ad independently, but ignores its relationship to other ads that may impact the CTR. In this paper, we investigate various types of auxiliary ads for improving the CTR prediction of the target ad. In particular, we explore auxiliary ads from two viewpoints: one is from the spatial domain, where we consider the contextual ads shown above the target ad on the same page; the other is from the temporal domain, where we consider historically clicked and unclicked ads of the user. The intuitions are that ads shown together may influence each other, clicked ads reflect a user's preferences, and unclicked ads may indicate what a user dislikes to certain extent. In order to effectively utilize these auxiliary data, we propose the Deep Spatio-Temporal neural Networks (DSTNs) for CTR prediction. Our model is able to learn the interactions between each type of auxiliary data and the target ad, to emphasize more important hidden information, and to fuse heterogeneous data in a unified framework. Offline experiments on one public dataset and two industrial datasets show that DSTNs outperform several state-of-the-art methods for CTR prediction. We have deployed the best-performing DSTN in Shenma Search, which is the second largest search engine in China. The A B test results show that the online CTR is also significantly improved compared to our last serving model.
@cite_26 consider the pairwise relationship between ads shown on the same page and propose a Conditional Random Field (CRF)-based model for CTR prediction. @cite_25 consider various contextual factors such as ad depth, query diversity and ad interaction for click modeling. One major problem of these models is that the vertex and edge feature functions need to be manually defined based on data analysis and it is difficult to generalize the model to other types of data.
@cite_26 @cite_25
2146422856 2127856808 2161236525 2952793010
This paper is concerned with the prediction of clicking an ad in sponsored search. The accurate prediction of user's click on an ad plays an important role in sponsored search, because it is widely used in both ranking and pricing of the ads. Previous work on click prediction usually takes a single ad as input, and ignores its relationship to the other ads shown in the same page. This independence assumption here, however, might not be valid in the real scenario. In this paper, we first perform an analysis on this issue by looking at the click-through rates (CTR) of the same ad, in the same position and for the same query, but surrounded by different ads. We found that in most cases the CTR varies largely, which suggests that the relationship between ads is really an important factor in predicting click probability. Furthermore, our investigation shows that the more similar the surrounding ads are to an ad, the lower the CTR of the ad is. Based on this observation, we design a continuous conditional random fields (CRF) based model for click prediction, which considers both the features of an ad and its similarity to the surrounding ads. We show that the model can be effectively learned using maximum likelihood estimation, and can also be efficiently inferred due to its closed form solution. Our experimental results on the click-through log from a commercial search engine show that the proposed model can predict clicks more accurately than previous independent models. To our best knowledge this is the first work that predicts ad clicks by considering the relationship between ads. Until recently, the lack of ground truth data has hindered the application of discriminative structured prediction techniques to the stereo problem. In this paper we use ground truth data sets that we have recently constructed to explore different model structures and parameter learning techniques. To estimate parameters in Markov random fields (MRFs) via maximum likelihood one usually needs to perform approximate probabilistic inference. Conditional random fields (CRFs) are discriminative versions of traditional MRFs. We explore a number of novel CRF model structures including a CRF for stereo matching with an explicit occlusion model. CRFs require expensive inference steps for each iteration of optimization and inference is particularly slow when there are many discrete states. We explore belief propagation, variational message passing and graph cuts as inference methods during learning and compare with learning via pseudolikelihood. To accelerate approximate inference we have developed a new method called sparse variational message passing which can reduce inference time by an order of magnitude with negligible loss in quality. Learning using sparse variational message passing improves upon previous approaches using graph cuts and allows efficient learning over large data sets when energy functions violate the constraints imposed by graph cuts. Most state-of-the-art techniques for multi-class image segmentation and labeling use conditional random fields defined over pixels or image regions. While region-level models often feature dense pairwise connectivity, pixel-level models are considerably larger and have only permitted sparse graph structures. In this paper, we consider fully connected CRF models defined on the complete set of pixels in an image. The resulting graphs have billions of edges, making traditional inference algorithms impractical. Our main contribution is a highly efficient approximate inference algorithm for fully connected CRF models in which the pairwise edge potentials are defined by a linear combination of Gaussian kernels. Our experiments demonstrate that dense connectivity at the pixel level substantially improves segmentation and labeling accuracy. Most state-of-the-art techniques for multi-class image segmentation and labeling use conditional random fields defined over pixels or image regions. While region-level models often feature dense pairwise connectivity, pixel-level models are considerably larger and have only permitted sparse graph structures. In this paper, we consider fully connected CRF models defined on the complete set of pixels in an image. The resulting graphs have billions of edges, making traditional inference algorithms impractical. Our main contribution is a highly efficient approximate inference algorithm for fully connected CRF models in which the pairwise edge potentials are defined by a linear combination of Gaussian kernels. Our experiments demonstrate that dense connectivity at the pixel level substantially improves segmentation and labeling accuracy.