We consider the one-sided exit problem for (fractionally) integrated random walks and L 'evy processes. We prove that the rate of decrease of the non-exit probability -- the so-called survival exponent -- is universal in this class of processes. In particular, the survival exponent can be inferred from the (fractionally) integrated Brownian motion. This, in particular, extends Sinai's result on the survival exponent for the integrated simple random walk to general random walks with some finite exponential moment. Further, we prove existence and monotonicity of the survival exponent of fractionally integrated processes. We show that this exponent is related to a constant appearing in the study of random polynomials.
Li and Shao @cite_10 @cite_20 are the first who aim at building a theory for a whole class of processes. In the mentioned works, the lower tail probability problem ) is studied for Gaussian processes. It is shown that the decrease in ) is indeed on the polynomial scale for many one-dimensional Gaussian processes. However, the technique does not yield values for the survival exponent. An important tool in the study of the above problems for Gaussian processes is the Slepian lemma @cite_2 and a comparable opposite inequality from @cite_17 .
@cite_10 @cite_17 @cite_20 @cite_2
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Let X=(Xt)t∈S be a real-valued Gaussian random process indexed by S with mean zero. General upper and lower estimates are given for the lower tail probability P(supt∈S(Xt−Xt0)≤x) as x→0, with t0∈S fixed. In particular, sharp rates are given for fractional Brownian sheet. Furthermore, connections between lower tail probabilities for Gaussian processes with stationary increments and level crossing probabilities for stationary Gaussian processes are studied. Our methods also provide useful information on a random pursuit problem for fractional Brownian particles. We consider the following detection problem: given a realization of a symmetric matrix X of dimension n, distinguish between the hypothesis that all upper triangular variables are i.i.d. Gaussians variables with mean 0 and variance 1 and the hypothesis that there is a planted principal submatrix B of dimension L for which all upper triangular variables are i.i.d. Gaussians with mean 1 and variance 1 , whereas all other upper triangular elements of X not in B are i.i.d. Gaussians variables with mean 0 and variance 1. We refer to this as the 'Gaussian hidden clique problem'. When L = (1 + ∊) √n (∊ > 0), it is possible to solve this detection problem with probability 1 - on(1) by computing the spectrum of X and considering the largest eigenvalue of X. We prove that when L < (1 - ∊) √n no algorithm that examines only the eigenvalues of X can detect the existence of a hidden Gaussian clique, with error probability vanishing as n → ∞. The result above is an immediate consequence of a more general result on rank-one perturbations of k-dimensional Gaussian tensors. In this context we establish a lower bound on the critical signal-to-noise ratio below which a rank-one signal cannot be detected. We consider the problem of learning a coefficient vector xο ∈ RN from noisy linear observation y = Axo + ∈ Rn. In many contexts (ranging from model selection to image processing), it is desirable to construct a sparse estimator x. In this case, a popular approach consists in solving an l1-penalized least-squares problem known as the LASSO or basis pursuit denoising. For sequences of matrices A of increasing dimensions, with independent Gaussian entries, we prove that the normalized risk of the LASSO converges to a limit, and we obtain an explicit expression for this limit. Our result is the first rigorous derivation of an explicit formula for the asymptotic mean square error of the LASSO for random instances. The proof technique is based on the analysis of AMP, a recently developed efficient algorithm, that is inspired from graphical model ideas. Simulations on real data matrices suggest that our results can be relevant in a broad array of practical applications. The paper uses empirical process techniques to study the asymptotics of the least-squares estimator (LSE) for the fitting of a nonlinear regression function. By combining and extending ideas of Wu and Van de Geer, it establishes new consistency and central limit theorems that hold under only second moment assumptions on the errors. An application to a delicate example of Wu's illustrates the use of the new theorems, leading to a normal approximation to the LSE with unusual logarithmic rescalings.