Models for predicting the time of a future event are crucial for risk assessment, across a diverse range of applications. Existing time-to-event (survival) models have focused primarily on preserving pairwise ordering of estimated event times, or relative risk. Model calibration is relatively under explored, despite its critical importance in time-to-event applications. We present a survival function estimator for probabilistic predictions in time-to-event models, based on a neural network model for draws from the distribution of event times, without explicit assumptions on the form of the distribution. This is done like in adversarial learning, but we achieve learning without a discriminator or adversarial objective. The proposed estimator can be used in practice as a means of estimating and comparing conditional survival distributions, while accounting for the predictive uncertainty of probabilistic models. Extensive experiments show that the proposed model outperforms existing approaches, trained both with and without adversarial learning, in terms of both calibration and concentration of time-to-event distributions.
Existing calibration literature in predictive models has primarily focused on recalibration techniques for predictions from classification or regression models . For classification tasks, the Brier score is a commonly used proper score metric, quantifying the accuracy of probabilistic predictions, and thus it is often used to assess calibration. The Brier score has also been used to asses calibration in time-to-event models @cite_0 @cite_14 @cite_2 @cite_11 , however, this score has to be evaluated at pre-specified (thresholded) time horizons. Alternatively, S-CRPS @cite_12 considers the integral of the Brier score evaluated at all possible thresholds @cite_13 , which is a more principled and comprehensive approach than calibration at pre-specifying time horizon thresholds.
@cite_14 @cite_0 @cite_2 @cite_13 @cite_12 @cite_11
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Personalized probabilistic forecasts of time to event (such as mortality) can be crucial in decision making, especially in the clinical setting. Inspired by ideas from the meteorology literature, we approach this problem through the paradigm of maximizing sharpness of prediction distributions, subject to calibration. In regression problems, it has been shown that optimizing the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) instead of maximum likelihood leads to sharper prediction distributions while maintaining calibration. We introduce the Survival-CRPS, a generalization of the CRPS to the time to event setting, and present right-censored and interval-censored variants. To holistically evaluate the quality of predicted distributions over time to event, we present the Survival-AUPRC evaluation metric, an analog to area under the precision-recall curve. We apply these ideas by building a recurrent neural network for mortality prediction, using an Electronic Health Record dataset covering millions of patients. We demonstrate significant benefits in models trained by the Survival-CRPS objective instead of maximum likelihood. One of the aims of credit scoring models is to predict the probability of repayment of any applicant and yet such models are usually parameterised using a sample of accepted applicants only. This may lead to biased estimates of the parameters. In this paper we examine two issues. First, we compare the classification accuracy of a model based only on accepted applicants, relative to one based on a sample of all applicants. We find only a minimal difference, given the cutoff scores for the old model used by the data supplier. Using a simulated model we examine the predictive performance of models estimated from bands of applicants, ranked by predicted creditworthiness. We find that the lower the risk band of the training sample, the less accurate the predictions for all applicants. We also find that the lower the risk band of the training sample, the greater the overestimate of the true performance of the model, when tested on a sample of applicants within the same risk band — as a financial institution would do. The overestimation may be very large. Second, we examine the predictive accuracy of a bivariate probit model with selection (BVP). This parameterises the accept–reject model allowing for (unknown) omitted variables to be correlated with those of the original good–bad model. The BVP model may improve accuracy if the loan officer has overridden a scoring rule. We find that a small improvement when using the BVP model is sometimes possible. Propensity score methods are widely used for estimating treatment effects from observational studies. A popular approach is to estimate propensity scores by maximum likelihood based on logistic regression, and then apply inverse probability weighted estimators or extensions to estimate treatment effects. However, a challenging issue is that such inverse probability weighting methods including doubly robust methods can perform poorly even when the logistic model appears adequate as examined by conventional techniques. In addition, there is increasing difficulty to appropriately estimate propensity scores when dealing with a large number of covariates. To address these issues, we study calibrated estimation as an alternative to maximum likelihood estimation for fitting logistic propensity score models. We show that, with possible model misspecification, minimizing the expected calibration loss underlying the calibrated estimators involves reducing both the expected likelihood loss and a measure of relative errors which controls the mean squared errors of inverse probability weighted estimators. Furthermore, we propose a regularized calibrated estimator by minimizing the calibration loss with a Lasso penalty. We develop a novel Fisher scoring descent algorithm for computing the proposed estimator, and provide a high-dimensional analysis of the resulting inverse probability weighted estimators of population means, leveraging the control of relative errors for calibrated estimation. We present a simulation study and an empirical application to demonstrate the advantages of the proposed methods compared with maximum likelihood and regularization. In this paper, we propose a rank minimization method to fuse the predicted confidence scores of multiple models, each of which is obtained based on a certain kind of feature. Specifically, we convert each confidence score vector obtained from one model into a pairwise relationship matrix, in which each entry characterizes the comparative relationship of scores of two test samples. Our hypothesis is that the relative score relations are consistent among component models up to certain sparse deviations, despite the large variations that may exist in the absolute values of the raw scores. Then we formulate the score fusion problem as seeking a shared rank-2 pairwise relationship matrix based on which each original score matrix from individual model can be decomposed into the common rank-2 matrix and sparse deviation errors. A robust score vector is then extracted to fit the recovered low rank score relation matrix. We formulate the problem as a nuclear norm and l 1 norm optimization objective function and employ the Augmented Lagrange Multiplier (ALM) method for the optimization. Our method is isotonic (i.e., scale invariant) to the numeric scales of the scores originated from different models. We experimentally show that the proposed method achieves significant performance gains on various tasks including object categorization and video event detection.