We study loss functions that measure the accuracy of a prediction based on multiple data points simultaneously. To our knowledge, such loss functions have not been studied before in the area of property elicitation or in machine learning more broadly. As compared to traditional loss functions that take only a single data point, these multi-observation loss functions can in some cases drastically reduce the dimensionality of the hypothesis required. In elicitation, this corresponds to requiring many fewer reports; in empirical risk minimization, it corresponds to algorithms on a hypothesis space of much smaller dimension. We explore some examples of the tradeoff between dimensionality and number of observations, give some geometric characterizations and intuition for relating loss functions and the properties that they elicit, and discuss some implications for both elicitation and machine-learning contexts.
Our work is inspired in part by @cite_1 which proposes a way to elicit the confidence (inverse of variance) of an agent's estimate of the bias of a coin by simply flipping it twice. In our terminology, this follows from the fact that the variance is @math -elicitable. Multi-observation losses have been previously introduced to learn embeddings , though an explicit property statistic is never discussed.
@cite_1
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In this paper, we theoretically study the problem of binary classification in the presence of random classification noise—the learner, instead of seeing the true labels, sees labels that have independently been flipped with some small probability. Moreover, random label noise is class-conditional— the flip probability depends on the class. We provide two approaches to suitably modify any given surrogate loss function. First, we provide a simple unbiased estimator of any loss, and obtain performance bounds for empirical risk minimization in the presence of iid data with noisy labels. If the loss function satisfies a simple symmetry condition, we show that the method leads to an efficient algorithm for empirical minimization. Second, by leveraging a reduction of risk minimization under noisy labels to classification with weighted 0-1 loss, we suggest the use of a simple weighted surrogate loss, for which we are able to obtain strong empirical risk bounds. This approach has a very remarkable consequence — methods used in practice such as biased SVM and weighted logistic regression are provably noise-tolerant. On a synthetic non-separable dataset, our methods achieve over 88 accuracy even when 40 of the labels are corrupted, and are competitive with respect to recently proposed methods for dealing with label noise in several benchmark datasets. We study the problem of eliciting and aggregating probabilistic information from multiple agents. In order to successfully aggregate the predictions of agents, the principal needs to elicit some notion of confidence from agents, capturing how much experience or knowledge led to their predictions. To formalize this, we consider a principal who wishes to elicit predictions about a random variable from a group of Bayesian agents, each of whom have privately observed some independent samples of the random variable, and hopes to aggregate the predictions as if she had directly observed the samples of all agents. Leveraging techniques from Bayesian statistics, we represent confidence as the number of samples an agent has observed, which is quantified by a hyperparameter from a conjugate family of prior distributions. This then allows us to show that if the principal has access to a few samples, she can achieve her aggregation goal by eliciting predictions from agents using proper scoring rules. In particular, if she has access to one sample, she can successfully aggregate the agents' predictions if and only if every posterior predictive distribution corresponds to a unique value of the hyperparameter. Furthermore, this uniqueness holds for many common distributions of interest. When this uniqueness property does not hold, we construct a novel and intuitive mechanism where a principal with two samples can elicit and optimally aggregate the agents' predictions. We study binary classification in the presence of class-conditional random noise, where the learner gets to see labels that are flipped independently with some probability, and where the flip probability depends on the class. Our goal is to devise learning algorithms that are efficient and statistically consistent with respect to commonly used utility measures. In particular, we look at a family of measures motivated by their application in domains where cost-sensitive learning is necessary (for example, when there is class imbalance). In contrast to most of the existing literature on consistent classification that are limited to the classical 0-1 loss, our analysis includes more general utility measures such as the AM measure (arithmetic mean of True Positive Rate and True Negative Rate). For this problem of cost-sensitive learning under class-conditional random noise, we develop two approaches that are based on suitably modifying surrogate losses. First, we provide a simple unbiased estimator of any loss, and obtain performance bounds for empirical utility maximization in the presence of i.i.d. data with noisy labels. If the loss function satis_es a simple symmetry condition, we show that using unbiased estimator leads to an efficient algorithm for empirical maximization. Second, by leveraging a reduction of risk minimization under noisy labels to classification with weighted 0-1 loss, we suggest the use of a simple weighted surrogate loss, for which we are able to obtain strong utility bounds. This approach implies that methods already used in practice, such as biased SVM and weighted logistic regression, are provably noise-tolerant. For two practically important measures in our family, we show that the proposed methods are competitive with respect to recently proposed methods for dealing with label noise in several benchmark data sets. In this article we study a class of parameters with the so-called mixed bias property'. For parameters with this property, the bias of the semiparametric efficient one step estimator is equal to the mean of the product of the estimation errors of two nuisance functions. In non-parametric models, parameters with the mixed bias property admit so-called rate doubly robust estimators, i.e. estimators that are consistent and asymptotically normal when one succeeds in estimating both nuisance functions at sufficiently fast rates, with the possibility of trading off slower rates of convergence for the estimator of one of the nuisance functions with faster rates for the estimator of the other nuisance. We show that the class of parameters with the mixed bias property strictly includes two recently studied classes of parameters which, in turn, include many parameters of interest in causal inference. We characterize the form of parameters with the mixed bias property and of their influence functions. Furthermore, we derive two functional moment equations, each being solved at one of the two nuisance functions, as well as, two functional loss functions, each being minimized at one of the two nuisance functions. These loss functions can be used to derive loss based penalized estimators of the nuisance functions.