Mechanistic models of single-neuron dynamics have been extensively studied in computational neuroscience. However, identifying which models can quantitatively reproduce empirically measured data has been challenging. We propose to overcome this limitation by using likelihood-free inference approaches (also known as Approximate Bayesian Computation, ABC) to perform full Bayesian inference on single-neuron models. Our approach builds on recent advances in ABC by learning a neural network which maps features of the observed data to the posterior distribution over parameters. We learn a Bayesian mixture-density network approximating the posterior over multiple rounds of adaptively chosen simulations. Furthermore, we propose an efficient approach for handling missing features and parameter settings for which the simulator fails, as well as a strategy for automatically learning relevant features using recurrent neural networks. On synthetic data, our approach efficiently estimates posterior distributions and recovers ground-truth parameters. On in-vitro recordings of membrane voltages, we recover multivariate posteriors over biophysical parameters, which yield model-predicted voltage traces that accurately match empirical data. Our approach will enable neuroscientists to perform Bayesian inference on complex neuron models without having to design model-specific algorithms, closing the gap between mechanistic and statistical approaches to single-neuron modelling.
Given experimental data @math (e.g. intracellular voltage measurements of a single neuron, or extracellular recordings from a neural population), a model @math parameterised by @math (e.g. biophysical parameters, or connectivity strengths in a network simulation) and a prior distribution @math , our goal is to perform statistical inference, i.e. to find the posterior distribution @math . We assume that the model @math is only defined through a @cite_27 @cite_46 : we can generate samples @math from it, but not evaluate @math (or its gradients) explicitly. In neural modelling, many models are defined through specification of a dynamical system with external or intrinsic noise sources or even through a black-box simulator (e.g. using the NEURON software @cite_5 ).
@cite_46 @cite_5 @cite_27
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We consider the problem of learning a one-hidden-layer neural network: we assume the input @math is from Gaussian distribution and the label @math , where @math is a nonnegative vector in @math with @math , @math is a full-rank weight matrix, and @math is a noise vector. We first give an analytic formula for the population risk of the standard squared loss and demonstrate that it implicitly attempts to decompose a sequence of low-rank tensors simultaneously. Inspired by the formula, we design a non-convex objective function @math whose landscape is guaranteed to have the following properties: 1. All local minima of @math are also global minima. 2. All global minima of @math correspond to the ground truth parameters. 3. The value and gradient of @math can be estimated using samples. With these properties, stochastic gradient descent on @math provably converges to the global minimum and learn the ground-truth parameters. We also prove finite sample complexity result and validate the results by simulations. Multi-layer neural networks have lead to remarkable performance on many kinds of benchmark tasks in text, speech and image processing. Nonlinear parameter estimation in hierarchical models is known to be subject to overfitting and misspecification. One approach to these estimation and related problems (local minima, colinearity, feature discovery etc.) is called Dropout (Hinton, et al 2012, 2016). The Dropout algorithm removes hidden units according to a Bernoulli random variable with probability @math prior to each update, creating random "shocks" to the network that are averaged over updates. In this paper we will show that Dropout is a special case of a more general model published originally in 1990 called the Stochastic Delta Rule, or SDR (Hanson, 1990). SDR redefines each weight in the network as a random variable with mean @math and standard deviation @math . Each weight random variable is sampled on each forward activation, consequently creating an exponential number of potential networks with shared weights. Both parameters are updated according to prediction error, thus resulting in weight noise injections that reflect a local history of prediction error and local model averaging. SDR therefore implements a more sensitive local gradient-dependent simulated annealing per weight converging in the limit to a Bayes optimal network. Tests on standard benchmarks (CIFAR) using a modified version of DenseNet shows the SDR outperforms standard Dropout in test error by approx. @math with DenseNet-BC 250 on CIFAR-100 and approx. @math in smaller networks. We also show that SDR reaches the same accuracy that Dropout attains in 100 epochs in as few as 35 epochs. We consider the problem of learning an unknown function @math on the @math -dimensional sphere with respect to the square loss, given i.i.d. samples @math where @math is a feature vector uniformly distributed on the sphere and @math . We study two popular classes of models that can be regarded as linearizations of two-layers neural networks around a random initialization: (RF) The random feature model of Rahimi-Recht; (NT) The neural tangent kernel model of Jacot-Gabriel-Hongler. Both these approaches can also be regarded as randomized approximations of kernel ridge regression (with respect to different kernels), and hence enjoy universal approximation properties when the number of neurons @math diverges, for a fixed dimension @math . We prove that, if both @math and @math are large, the behavior of these models is instead remarkably simpler. If @math , then RF performs no better than linear regression with respect to the raw features @math , and NT performs no better than linear regression with respect to degree-one and two monomials in the @math . More generally, if @math then RF fits at most a degree- @math polynomial in the raw features, and NT fits at most a degree- @math polynomial. We study a statistical model for the tensor principal component analysis problem introduced by Montanari and Richard: Given a order- @math tensor @math of the form @math , where @math is a signal-to-noise ratio, @math is a unit vector, and @math is a random noise tensor, the goal is to recover the planted vector @math . For the case that @math has iid standard Gaussian entries, we give an efficient algorithm to recover @math whenever @math , and certify that the recovered vector is close to a maximum likelihood estimator, all with high probability over the random choice of @math . The previous best algorithms with provable guarantees required @math . In the regime @math , natural tensor-unfolding-based spectral relaxations for the underlying optimization problem break down (in the sense that their integrality gap is large). To go beyond this barrier, we use convex relaxations based on the sum-of-squares method. Our recovery algorithm proceeds by rounding a degree- @math sum-of-squares relaxations of the maximum-likelihood-estimation problem for the statistical model. To complement our algorithmic results, we show that degree- @math sum-of-squares relaxations break down for @math , which demonstrates that improving our current guarantees (by more than logarithmic factors) would require new techniques or might even be intractable. Finally, we show how to exploit additional problem structure in order to solve our sum-of-squares relaxations, up to some approximation, very efficiently. Our fastest algorithm runs in nearly-linear time using shifted (matrix) power iteration and has similar guarantees as above. The analysis of this algorithm also confirms a variant of a conjecture of Montanari and Richard about singular vectors of tensor unfoldings.