We address the problem of incrementally modeling and forecasting long-term goals of a first-person camera wearer: what the user will do, where they will go, and what goal they seek. In contrast to prior work in trajectory forecasting, our algorithm, DARKO, goes further to reason about semantic states (will I pick up an object?), and future goal states that are far in terms of both space and time. DARKO learns and forecasts from first-person visual observations of the user's daily behaviors via an Online Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL) approach. Classical IRL discovers only the rewards in a batch setting, whereas DARKO discovers the states, transitions, rewards, and goals of a user from streaming data. Among other results, we show DARKO forecasts goals better than competing methods in both noisy and ideal settings, and our approach is theoretically and empirically no-regret.
Physical trajectory forecasting has received much attention from the vision community. Multiple human trajectory forecasting from a surveillance camera was investigated by @cite_29 . Other trajectory forecasting approaches use demonstrations observed from a bird's-eye view; @cite_18 infers latent goal locations and @cite_17 employ LSTMs to jointly reason about trajectories of multiple humans. In @cite_20 , the model forecasted short-term future trajectories of a first-person camera wearer by retrieving the nearest neighbors from a dataset of first-person trajectories under an obstacle-avoidance cost function, with each trajectory representing predictions of where the user will move in view of the frame; in @cite_16 , a similar model with learned cost function is extended to multiple users.
@cite_18 @cite_29 @cite_16 @cite_20 @cite_17
2613736160 2738596168 2558623550 2418222507
Given a visual history, multiple future outcomes for a video scene are equally probable, in other words, the distribution of future outcomes has multiple modes. Multimodality is notoriously hard to handle by standard regressors or classifiers: the former regress to the mean and the latter discretize a continuous high dimensional output space. In this work, we present stochastic neural network architectures that handle such multimodality through stochasticity: future trajectories of objects, body joints or frames are represented as deep, non-linear transformations of random (as opposed to deterministic) variables. Such random variables are sampled from simple Gaussian distributions whose means and variances are parametrized by the output of convolutional encoders over the visual history. We introduce novel convolutional architectures for predicting future body joint trajectories that outperform fully connected alternatives DBLP:journals corr WalkerDGH16 . We introduce stochastic spatial transformers through optical flow warping for predicting future frames, which outperform their deterministic equivalents DBLP:journals corr PatrauceanHC15 . Training stochastic networks involves an intractable marginalization over stochastic variables. We compare various training schemes that handle such marginalization through a) straightforward sampling from the prior, b) conditional variational autoencoders NIPS2015_5775,DBLP:journals corr WalkerDGH16 , and, c) a proposed K-best-sample loss that penalizes the best prediction under a fixed "prediction budget". We show experimental results on object trajectory prediction, human body joint trajectory prediction and video prediction under varying future uncertainty, validating quantitatively and qualitatively our architectural choices and training schemes. This paper presents a method to predict the future movements (location and gaze direction) of basketball players as a whole from their first person videos. The predicted behaviors reflect an individual physical space that affords to take the next actions while conforming to social behaviors by engaging to joint attention. Our key innovation is to use the 3D reconstruction of multiple first person cameras to automatically annotate each others visual semantics of social configurations. We leverage two learning signals uniquely embedded in first person videos. Individually, a first person video records the visual semantics of a spatial and social layout around a person that allows associating with past similar situations. Collectively, first person videos follow joint attention that can link the individuals to a group. We learn the egocentric visual semantics of group movements using a Siamese neural network to retrieve future trajectories. We consolidate the retrieved trajectories from all players by maximizing a measure of social compatibility&#x2014;the gaze alignment towards joint attention predicted by their social formation, where the dynamics of joint attention is learned by a long-term recurrent convolutional network. This allows us to characterize which social configuration is more plausible and predict future group trajectories. This paper presents a method to predict the future movements (location and gaze direction) of basketball players as a whole from their first person videos. The predicted behaviors reflect an individual physical space that affords to take the next actions while conforming to social behaviors by engaging to joint attention. Our key innovation is to use the 3D reconstruction of multiple first person cameras to automatically annotate each other's the visual semantics of social configurations. We leverage two learning signals uniquely embedded in first person videos. Individually, a first person video records the visual semantics of a spatial and social layout around a person that allows associating with past similar situations. Collectively, first person videos follow joint attention that can link the individuals to a group. We learn the egocentric visual semantics of group movements using a Siamese neural network to retrieve future trajectories. We consolidate the retrieved trajectories from all players by maximizing a measure of social compatibility---the gaze alignment towards joint attention predicted by their social formation, where the dynamics of joint attention is learned by a long-term recurrent convolutional network. This allows us to characterize which social configuration is more plausible and predict future group trajectories. To enable safe and efficient human–robot collaboration in shared workspaces, it is important for the robot to predict how a human will move when performing a task. While predicting human motion for tasks not known a priori is very challenging, we argue that single-arm reaching motions for known tasks in collaborative settings (which are especially relevant for manufacturing) are indeed predictable. Two hypotheses underlie our approach for predicting such motions: First, that the trajectory the human performs is optimal with respect to an unknown cost function, and second, that human adaptation to their partner's motion can be captured well through iterative replanning with the above cost function. The key to our approach is thus to learn a cost function that “explains” the motion of the human. To do this, we gather example trajectories from pairs of participants performing a collaborative assembly task using motion capture. We then use inverse optimal control to learn a cost function from these trajectories. Finally, we predict reaching motions from the human's current configuration to a task-space goal region by iteratively replanning a trajectory using the learned cost function. Our planning algorithm is based on the trajectory optimizer: stochastic trajectory optimizer for motion planning [1] ; it plans for a 23-degree-of-freedom human kinematic model and accounts for the presence of a moving collaborator and obstacles in the environment. Our results suggest that in most cases, our method outperforms baseline methods when predicting motions. We also show that our method outperforms baselines for predicting human motion when a human and a robot share the workspace.