Safely exploring an unknown dynamical system is critical to the deployment of reinforcement learning (RL) in physical systems where failures may have catastrophic consequences. In scenarios where one knows little about the dynamics, diverse transition data covering relevant regions of state-action space is needed to apply either model-based or model-free RL. Motivated by the cooling of Google's data centers, we study how one can safely identify the parameters of a system model with a desired accuracy and confidence level. In particular, we focus on learning an unknown linear system with Gaussian noise assuming only that, initially, a nominal safe action is known. Define safety as satisfying specific linear constraints on the state space (e.g., requirements on process variable) that must hold over the span of an entire trajectory, and given a Probably Approximately Correct (PAC) style bound on the estimation error of model parameters, we show how to compute safe regions of action space by gradually growing a ball around the nominal safe action. One can apply any exploration strategy where actions are chosen from such safe regions. Experiments on a stylized model of data center cooling dynamics show how computing proper safe regions can increase the sample efficiency of safe exploration.
In the context of robust parameter estimation, there is a line of work on bounded noise models in system identification @cite_15 @cite_9 @cite_23 . This paradigm does not assume any statistical form of the noise inherent in state observations, but instead assumes only that the noise is bounded by an unknown constant. Researchers have studied the existence and characteristics of estimators for various optimality concepts @cite_14 . In our setting, we assume a statistical distribution for the noise model, but we compute robust, safe actions with respect to the uncertainty in the model parameters estimated from trajectory data.
@cite_9 @cite_15 @cite_14 @cite_23
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Author(s): Plan, Y; Vershynin, R; Yudovina, E | Abstract: Consider measuring an n-dimensional vector x through the inner product with several measurement vectors, a_1, a_2, ..., a_m. It is common in both signal processing and statistics to assume the linear response model y_i = + e_i, where e_i is a noise term. However, in practice the precise relationship between the signal x and the observations y_i may not follow the linear model, and in some cases it may not even be known. To address this challenge, in this paper we propose a general model where it is only assumed that each observation y_i may depend on a_i only through . We do not assume that the dependence is known. This is a form of the semiparametric single index model, and it includes the linear model as well as many forms of the generalized linear model as special cases. We further assume that the signal x has some structure, and we formulate this as a general assumption that x belongs to some known (but arbitrary) feasible set K. We carefully detail the benefit of using the signal structure to improve estimation. The theory is based on the mean width of K, a geometric parameter which can be used to understand its effective dimension in estimation problems. We determine a simple, efficient two-step procedure for estimating the signal based on this model -- a linear estimation followed by metric projection onto K. We give general conditions under which the estimator is minimax optimal up to a constant. This leads to the intriguing conclusion that in the high noise regime, an unknown non-linearity in the observations does not significantly reduce one's ability to determine the signal, even when the non-linearity may be non-invertible. Our results may be specialized to understand the effect of non-linearities in compressed sensing. In many problems such as linear and nonlinear regressions, parameter and state estimation of dynamic systems, state-space and time series prediction, interpolation, smoothing and functions approximation, one has to evaluate some unknown variable using available data. The data are always associated with some uncertainty and it is necessary to evaluate how this uncertainty affects the estimated variables. Typically, the problem is approached assuming a probabilistic description of uncertainty and applying statistical estimation theory. An interesting alternative approach, referred to as set membership or unknown but bounded (UBB) error description, has been investigated since the late 1960s. In this approach, uncertainty is described by an additive noise which is known only to have given integral (typically l2 of l1) or componentwise (l∞) bounds. In this paper we review the main results of this theory, with special attention to the most recent advances obtained in the case of componentwise bounds. The paper studies distributed static parameter (vector) estimation in sensor networks with nonlinear observation models and noisy intersensor communication. It introduces separably estimable observation models that generalize the observability condition in linear centralized estimation to nonlinear distributed estimation. It studies two distributed estimation algorithms in separably estimable models, the NU (with its linear counterpart LU) and the NLU. Their update rule combines a consensus step (where each sensor updates the state by weight averaging it with its neighbors' states) and an innovation step (where each sensor processes its local current observation). This makes the three algorithms of the consensus + innovations type, very different from traditional consensus. This paper proves consistency (all sensors reach consensus almost surely and converge to the true parameter value), efficiency, and asymptotic unbiasedness. For LU and NU, it proves asymptotic normality and provides convergence rate guarantees. The three algorithms are characterized by appropriately chosen decaying weight sequences. Algorithms LU and NU are analyzed in the framework of stochastic approximation theory; algorithm NLU exhibits mixed time-scale behavior and biased perturbations, and its analysis requires a different approach that is developed in this paper. Consider the problem of joint parameter estimation and prediction in a Markov random field: that is, the model parameters are estimated on the basis of an initial set of data, and then the fitted model is used to perform prediction (e.g., smoothing, denoising, interpolation) on a new noisy observation. Working under the restriction of limited computation, we analyze a joint method in which the same convex variational relaxation is used to construct an M-estimator for fitting parameters, and to perform approximate marginalization for the prediction step. The key result of this paper is that in the computation-limited setting, using an inconsistent parameter estimator (i.e., an estimator that returns the "wrong" model even in the infinite data limit) is provably beneficial, since the resulting errors can partially compensate for errors made by using an approximate prediction technique. En route to this result, we analyze the asymptotic properties of M-estimators based on convex variational relaxations, and establish a Lipschitz stability property that holds for a broad class of convex variational methods. This stability result provides additional incentive, apart from the obvious benefit of unique global optima, for using message-passing methods based on convex variational relaxations. We show that joint estimation prediction based on the reweighted sum-product algorithm substantially outperforms a commonly used heuristic based on ordinary sum-product.