We report on a data-driven investigation aimed at understanding the dynamics of message spreading in a real-world dynamical network of human proximity. We use data collected by means of a proximity-sensing network of wearable sensors that we deployed at three different social gatherings, simultaneously involving several hundred individuals. We simulate a message spreading process over the recorded proximity network, focusing on both the topological and the temporal properties. We show that by using an appropriate technique to deal with the temporal heterogeneity of proximity events, a universal statistical pattern emerges for the delivery times of messages, robust across all the data sets. Our results are useful to set constraints for generic processes of data dissemination, as well as to validate established models of human mobility and proximity that are frequently used to simulate realistic behaviors.
Another relevant area deals with modeling data dissemination in opportunistic networks. In Ref. @cite_2 data is proactively disseminated using a strategy based on the utility of the data itself. Utility is defined on top of existing social relationships between users, and the resulting Markovian model is validated in simulation only.
@cite_2
2166093893 2206697650 2164227199 1511986666
In opportunistic networks data dissemination is an important, although not widely explored, topic. Since opportunistic networks topologies are very challenged and unstable, data-centric approaches are an interesting direction to pursue. Data should be proactively and cooperatively disseminated from sources towards possibly interested receivers, as sources and receivers might not be aware of each other, and never get in touch directly. In this paper we consider a utility-based cooperative data dissemination system in which the utility of data is defined based on the social relationships between users. Specifically, we study the performance of this system through an analytical model. Our model allows us to completely characterise the data dissemination process, as it describes both its stationary and transient regimes. After validating the model, we study the system's behaviour with respect to key parameters such as the definition of the data utility function, the initial data allocation on nodes, the number of users in the system, and the data popularity. The emergence and wide-spread use of online social networks has led to a dramatic increase on the availability of social activity data. Importantly, this data can be exploited to investigate, at a microscopic level, some of the problems that have captured the attention of economists, marketers and sociologists for decades, such as, e.g., product adoption, usage and competition. In this paper, we propose a continuous-time probabilistic model, based on temporal point processes, for the adoption and frequency of use of competing products, where the frequency of use of one product can be modulated by those of others. This model allows us to efficiently simulate the adoption and recurrent usages of competing products, and generate traces in which we can easily recognize the effect of social influence, recency and competition. We then develop an inference method to efficiently fit the model parameters by solving a convex program. The problem decouples into a collection of smaller subproblems, thus scaling easily to networks with hundred of thousands of nodes. We validate our model over synthetic and real diffusion data gathered from Twitter, and show that the proposed model does not only provides a good fit to the data and more accurate predictions than alternatives but also provides interpretable model parameters, which allow us to gain insights into some of the factors driving product adoption and frequency of use. Many people share their activities with others through online communities. These shared activities have an impact on other users' activities. For example, users are likely to become interested in items that are adopted (e.g. liked, bought and shared) by their friends. In this paper, we propose a probabilistic model for discovering latent influence from sequences of item adoption events. An inhomogeneous Poisson process is used for modeling a sequence, in which adoption by a user triggers the subsequent adoption of the same item by other users. For modeling adoption of multiple items, we employ multiple inhomogeneous Poisson processes, which share parameters, such as influence for each user and relations between users. The proposed model can be used for finding influential users, discovering relations between users and predicting item popularity in the future. We present an efficient Bayesian inference procedure of the proposed model based on the stochastic EM algorithm. The effectiveness of the proposed model is demonstrated by using real data sets in a social bookmark sharing service. Most tasks require a person or an automated system to reason -- to reach conclusions based on available information. The framework of probabilistic graphical models, presented in this book, provides a general approach for this task. The approach is model-based, allowing interpretable models to be constructed and then manipulated by reasoning algorithms. These models can also be learned automatically from data, allowing the approach to be used in cases where manually constructing a model is difficult or even impossible. Because uncertainty is an inescapable aspect of most real-world applications, the book focuses on probabilistic models, which make the uncertainty explicit and provide models that are more faithful to reality. Probabilistic Graphical Models discusses a variety of models, spanning Bayesian networks, undirected Markov networks, discrete and continuous models, and extensions to deal with dynamical systems and relational data. For each class of models, the text describes the three fundamental cornerstones: representation, inference, and learning, presenting both basic concepts and advanced techniques. Finally, the book considers the use of the proposed framework for causal reasoning and decision making under uncertainty. The main text in each chapter provides the detailed technical development of the key ideas. Most chapters also include boxes with additional material: skill boxes, which describe techniques; case study boxes, which discuss empirical cases related to the approach described in the text, including applications in computer vision, robotics, natural language understanding, and computational biology; and concept boxes, which present significant concepts drawn from the material in the chapter. Instructors (and readers) can group chapters in various combinations, from core topics to more technically advanced material, to suit their particular needs.