A variety of real-world processes (over networks) produce sequences of data whose complex temporal dynamics need to be studied. More especially, the event timestamps can carry important information about the underlying network dynamics, which otherwise are not available from the time-series evenly sampled from continuous signals. Moreover, in most complex processes, event sequences and evenly-sampled times series data can interact with each other, which renders joint modeling of those two sources of data necessary. To tackle the above problems, in this paper, we utilize the rich framework of (temporal) point processes to model event data and timely update its intensity function by the synergic twin Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs). In the proposed architecture, the intensity function is synergistically modulated by one RNN with asynchronous events as input and another RNN with time series as input. Furthermore, to enhance the interpretability of the model, the attention mechanism for the neural point process is introduced. The whole model with event type and timestamp prediction output layers can be trained end-to-end and allows a black-box treatment for modeling the intensity. We substantiate the superiority of our model in synthetic data and three real-world benchmark datasets.
: In contrast, event sequence with timestamp about their occurrence, which are asynchronously and randomly distributed over the continuous time space, is another typical input type for RNNs @cite_11 @cite_52 (despite its title for 'time series'). One key differentiation against the first scenario is that the timestamp or time duration between events (together with other features) is taken as input to the RNNs. By doing so, (long-range) event dependency can be effectively encoded.
@cite_52 @cite_11
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Event sequence, asynchronously generated with random timestamp, is ubiquitous among applications. The precise and arbitrary timestamp can carry important clues about the underlying dynamics, and has lent the event data fundamentally different from the time-series whereby series is indexed with fixed and equal time interval. One expressive mathematical tool for modeling event is point process. The intensity functions of many point processes involve two components: the background and the effect by the history. Due to its inherent spontaneousness, the background can be treated as a time series while the other need to handle the history events. In this paper, we model the background by a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) with its units aligned with time series indexes while the history effect is modeled by another RNN whose units are aligned with asynchronous events to capture the long-range dynamics. The whole model with event type and timestamp prediction output layers can be trained end-to-end. Our approach takes an RNN perspective to point process, and models its background and history effect. For utility, our method allows a black-box treatment for modeling the intensity which is often a pre-defined parametric form in point processes. Meanwhile end-to-end training opens the venue for reusing existing rich techniques in deep network for point process modeling. We apply our model to the predictive maintenance problem using a log dataset by more than 1000 ATMs from a global bank headquartered in North America. Existing sequence prediction methods are mostly concerned with time-independent sequences, in which the actual time span between events is irrelevant and the distance between events is simply the difference between their order positions in the sequence. While this time-independent view of sequences is applicable for data such as natural languages, e.g., dealing with words in a sentence, it is inappropriate and inefficient for many real world events that are observed and collected at unequally spaced points of time as they naturally arise, e.g., when a person goes to a grocery store or makes a phone call. The time span between events can carry important information about the sequence dependence of human behaviors. In this work, we propose a set of methods for using time in sequence prediction. Because neural sequence models such as RNN are more amenable for handling token-like input, we propose two methods for time-dependent event representation, based on the intuition on how time is tokenized in everyday life and previous work on embedding contextualization. We also introduce two methods for using next event duration as regularization for training a sequence prediction model. We discuss these methods based on recurrent neural nets. We evaluate these methods as well as baseline models on five datasets that resemble a variety of sequence prediction tasks. The experiments revealed that the proposed methods offer accuracy gain over baseline models in a range of settings. Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) and one of its specific architectures, Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), have been widely used for sequence labeling. In this paper, we first enhance LSTM-based sequence labeling to explicitly model label dependencies. Then we propose another enhancement to incorporate the global information spanning over the whole input sequence. The latter proposed method, encoder-labeler LSTM, first encodes the whole input sequence into a fixed length vector with the encoder LSTM, and then uses this encoded vector as the initial state of another LSTM for sequence labeling. Combining these methods, we can predict the label sequence with considering label dependencies and information of whole input sequence. In the experiments of a slot filling task, which is an essential component of natural language understanding, with using the standard ATIS corpus, we achieved the state-of-the-art F1-score of 95.66 . Despite recent advances in training recurrent neural networks (RNNs), capturing long-term dependencies in sequences remains a fundamental challenge. Most approaches use backpropagation through time (BPTT), which is difficult to scale to very long sequences. This paper proposes a simple method that improves the ability to capture long term dependencies in RNNs by adding an unsupervised auxiliary loss to the original objective. This auxiliary loss forces RNNs to either reconstruct previous events or predict next events in a sequence, making truncated backpropagation feasible for long sequences and also improving full BPTT. We evaluate our method on a variety of settings, including pixel-by-pixel image classification with sequence lengths up to 16 ,000, and a real document classification benchmark. Our results highlight good performance and resource efficiency of this approach over competitive baselines, including other recurrent models and a comparable sized Transformer. Further analyses reveal beneficial effects of the auxiliary loss on optimization and regularization, as well as extreme cases where there is little to no backpropagation.