In this work, we propose a regression method to predict the popularity of an online video measured by its number of views. Our method uses Support Vector Regression with Gaussian radial basis functions. We show that predicting popularity patterns with this approach provides more precise and more stable prediction results, mainly thanks to the nonlinear character of the proposed method as well as its robustness. We prove the superiority of our method against the state of the art using datasets containing almost 24 000 videos from YouTube and Facebook. We also show that using visual features, such as the outputs of deep neural networks or scene dynamics’ metrics, can be useful for popularity prediction before content publication. Furthermore, we show that popularity prediction accuracy can be improved by combining early distribution patterns with social and visual features and that social features represent a much stronger signal in terms of video popularity prediction than the visual ones.
Due to the enormous growth of the number of Internet users and online data available, popularity prediction of online content has received a lot of attention from the research community. Early works have focused on user web-access patterns @cite_31 and more specifically on the distribution of the video content @cite_21 , as it accounted for a significant portion of the Internet traffic and the findings could be used to determine the benefits of caching. Once the general access patterns were understood, the attention of the research community shifted to the actual popularity prediction of various content types.
@cite_31 @cite_21
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Content popularity prediction finds application in many areas, including media advertising, content caching, movie revenue estimation, traffic management and macro-economic trends forecasting, to name a few. However, predicting this popularity is difficult due to, among others, the effects of external phenomena, the influence of context such as locality and relevance to users,and the difficulty of forecasting information cascades. In this paper we identify patterns of temporal evolution that are generalisable to distinct types of data, and show that we can (1) accurately classify content based on the evolution of its popularity over time and (2) predict the value of the content's future popularity. We verify the generality of our method by testing it on YouTube, Digg and Vimeo data sets and find our results to outperform the K-Means baseline when classifying the behaviour of content and the linear regression baseline when predicting its popularity. Predicting Web content popularity is an important task for supporting the design and evaluation of a wide range of systems, from targeted advertising to effective search and recommendation services. We here present two simple models for predicting the future popularity of Web content based on historical information given by early popularity measures. Our approach is validated on datasets consisting of videos from the widely used YouTube video-sharing portal. Our experimental results show that, compared to a state-of-the-art baseline model, our proposed models lead to significant decreases in relative squared errors, reaching up to 20 reduction on average, and larger reductions (of up to 71 ) for videos that experience a high peak in popularity in their early days followed by a sharp decrease in popularity. Popularity prediction, with both technological and economic importance, has been extensively studied for conventional video sharing sites (VSSes), where the videos are mainly found via searching, browsing, or related links. Recent statistics however suggest that online social network (OSN) users regularly share video contents from VSSes, which has contributed to a significant portion of the accesses; yet the popularity prediction in this new context remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we present an initial study on the popularity prediction of videos propagated in OSNs along friendship links. We conduct a large-scale measurement and analysis of viewing patterns of videos shared in one of largest OSNs in China, and examine the performance of typical views-based prediction models. We find that they are generally ineffective, if not totally fail, especially when predicting the early peaks and later bursts of accesses, which are common during video propagations in OSNs. To overcome these limits, we track the propagation process of videos shared in a Facebook-like OSN in China, and analyze the user viewing and sharing behaviors. We accordingly develop a novel propagation-based video popularity prediction solution, namely SoVP. Instead of relying solely on the early views for prediction, SoVP considers both the intrinsic attractiveness of a video and the influence from the underlying propagation structure. The effectiveness of SoVP, particularly for predicting the peaks and bursts, have been validated through our trace-driven experiments. This paper presents a traffic characterization study of the popular video sharing service, YouTube. Over a three month period we observed almost 25 million transactions between users on an edge network and YouTube, including more than 600,000 video downloads. We also monitored the globally popular videos over this period of time. In the paper we examine usage patterns, file properties, popularity and referencing characteristics, and transfer behaviors of YouTube, and compare them to traditional Web and media streaming workload characteristics. We conclude the paper with a discussion of the implications of the observed characteristics. For example, we find that as with the traditional Web, caching could improve the end user experience, reduce network bandwidth consumption, and reduce the load on YouTube's core server infrastructure. Unlike traditional Web caching, Web 2.0 provides additional meta-data that should be exploited to improve the effectiveness of strategies like caching.