Predictive process monitoring is concerned with the analysis of events produced during the execution of a business process in order to predict as early as possible the final outcome of an ongoing case. Traditionally, predictive process monitoring methods are optimized with respect to accuracy. However, in environments where users make decisions and take actions in response to the predictions they receive, it is equally important to optimize the stability of the successive predictions made for each case. To this end, this paper defines a notion of temporal stability for binary classification tasks in predictive process monitoring and evaluates existing methods with respect to both temporal stability and accuracy. We find that methods based on XGBoost and LSTM neural networks exhibit the highest temporal stability. We then show that temporal stability can be enhanced by hyperparameter-optimizing random forests and XGBoost classifiers with respect to inter-run stability. Finally, we show that time series smoothing techniques can further enhance temporal stability at the expense of slightly lower accuracy.
Several existing works have proposed dividing prefixes into buckets and training separate classifiers for each bucket, resulting in a approach. An example is @cite_17 , where different classifiers are built for each prefix length. Other methods cluster the prefixes based on frequencies of performed activities and build one classifier per cluster @cite_31 . Others train a classifier for every state in a process model or a transition system @cite_1 .
@cite_31 @cite_1 @cite_17
2140013053 130850236 1834987204 2096995231
Multiple-instance learning algorithms train classifiers from lightly supervised data, i.e. labeled collections of items, rather than labeled items. We compare the multiple-instance learners mi-SVM and MILES on the task of classifying 10second song clips. These classifiers are trained on tags at the track, album, and artist levels, or granularities, that have been derived from tags at the clip granularity, allowing us to test the effectiveness of the learners at recovering the clip labeling in the training set and predicting the clip labeling for a held-out test set. We find that mi-SVM is better than a control at the recovery task on training clips, with an average classification accuracy as high as 87 over 43 tags; on test clips, it is comparable to the control with an average classification accuracy of up to 68 . MILES performed adequately on the recovery task, but poorly on the test clips. We present a technique for augmenting annotated training data with hierarchical word clusters that are automatically derived from a large unannotated corpus. Cluster membership is encoded in features that are incorporated in a discriminatively trained tagging model. Active learning is used to select training examples. We evaluate the technique for named-entity tagging. Compared with a state-of-the-art HMM-based name finder, the presented technique requires only 13 as much annotated data to achieve the same level of performance. Given a large annotated training set of 1,000,000 words, the technique achieves a 25 reduction in error over the state-of-the-art HMM trained on the same material. Recommending phrases from web pages for advertisers to bid on against search engine queries is an important research problem with direct commercial impact. Most approaches have found it infeasible to determine the relevance of all possible queries to a given ad landing page and have focussed on making recommendations from a small set of phrases extracted (and expanded) from the page using NLP and ranking based techniques. In this paper, we eschew this paradigm, and demonstrate that it is possible to efficiently predict the relevant subset of queries from a large set of monetizable ones by posing the problem as a multi-label learning task with each query being represented by a separate label. We develop Multi-label Random Forests to tackle problems with millions of labels. Our proposed classifier has prediction costs that are logarithmic in the number of labels and can make predictions in a few milliseconds using 10 Gb of RAM. We demonstrate that it is possible to generate training data for our classifier automatically from click logs without any human annotation or intervention. We train our classifier on tens of millions of labels, features and training points in less than two days on a thousand node cluster. We develop a sparse semi-supervised multi-label learning formulation to deal with training set biases and noisy labels harvested automatically from the click logs. This formulation is used to infer a belief in the state of each label for each training ad and the random forest classifier is extended to train on these beliefs rather than the given labels. Experiments reveal significant gains over ranking and NLP based techniques on a large test set of 5 million ads using multiple metrics. Lazy local learning methods train a classifier "on the fly" at test time, using only a subset of the training instances that are most relevant to the novel test example. The goal is to tailor the classifier to the properties of the data surrounding the test example. Existing methods assume that the instances most useful for building the local model are strictly those closest to the test example. However, this fails to account for the fact that the success of the resulting classifier depends on the full distribution of selected training instances. Rather than simply gathering the test example's nearest neighbors, we propose to predict the subset of training data that is jointly relevant to training its local model. We develop an approach to discover patterns between queries and their "good" neighborhoods using large-scale multi-label classification with compressed sensing. Given a novel test point, we estimate both the composition and size of the training subset likely to yield an accurate local model. We demonstrate the approach on image classification tasks on SUN and aPascal and show its advantages over traditional global and local approaches.