The past few years has seen the rapid growth of data min- ing approaches for the analysis of data obtained from Mas- sive Open Online Courses (MOOCs). The objectives of this study are to develop approaches to predict the scores a stu- dent may achieve on a given grade-related assessment based on information, considered as prior performance or prior ac- tivity in the course. We develop a personalized linear mul- tiple regression (PLMR) model to predict the grade for a student, prior to attempting the assessment activity. The developed model is real-time and tracks the participation of a student within a MOOC (via click-stream server logs) and predicts the performance of a student on the next as- sessment within the course offering. We perform a com- prehensive set of experiments on data obtained from three openEdX MOOCs via a Stanford University initiative. Our experimental results show the promise of the proposed ap- proach in comparison to baseline approaches and also helps in identification of key features that are associated with the study habits and learning behaviors of students.
Most similar to our proposed work, Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT) @cite_2 has been adapted to predict whether a student can get a MOOC assessment correct or not. BKT was first developed @cite_10 for modeling the evolving knowledge states of students monitored within Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITS). Pardos et. al. proposed a model Item Difficulty Effect Model (IDEM) that incorporates the difficulty levels of different questions and modifies the original BKT by adding an Item node to every question node. By identifying the challenges associated with modeling MOOC data, the IDEM approach and extensions that involve splitting questions into several sub-parts and incorporating resource (knowledge) information @cite_4 are considered state-of-the-art MOOC assessment prediction approaches and referred as KT-IDEM. However, this approach can only predict a binary value grade. In contrast, the model proposed in this paper is able to predict both, a continuous and a binary grade.
@cite_10 @cite_4 @cite_2
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Many models in computer education and assessment take into account difficulty. However, despite the positive results of models that take difficulty in to account, knowledge tracing is still used in its basic form due to its skill level diagnostic abilities that are very useful to teachers. This leads to the research question we address in this work: Can KT be effectively extended to capture item difficulty and improve prediction accuracy? There have been a variety of extensions to KT in recent years. One such extension was Baker's contextual guess and slip model. While this model has shown positive gains over KT in internal validation testing, it has not performed well relative to KT on unseen in-tutor data or post-test data, however, it has proven a valuable model to use alongside other models. The contextual guess and slip model increases the complexity of KT by adding regression steps and feature generation. The added complexity of feature generation across datasets may have hindered the performance of this model. Therefore, one of the aims of our work here is to make the most minimal of modifications to the KT model in order to add item difficulty and keep the modification limited to changing the topology of the model. We analyze datasets from two intelligent tutoring systems with KT and a model we have called KT-IDEM (Item Difficulty Effect Model) and show that substantial performance gains can be achieved with this minor modification that incorporates item difficulty. Modeling students' knowledge is a fundamental part of intelligent tutoring systems. One of the most popular methods for estimating students' knowledge is Corbett and Anderson's [6] Bayesian Knowledge Tracing model. The model uses four parameters per skill, fit using student performance data, to relate performance to learning. Beck [1] showed that existing methods for determining these parameters are prone to the Identifiability Problem:the same performance data can be fit equally well by different parameters, with different implications on system behavior. Beck offered a solution based on Dirichlet Priors [1], but, we show this solution is vulnerable to a different problem, Model Degeneracy, where parameter values violate the model's conceptual meaning (such as a student being more likely to get a correct answer if he she does not know a skill than if he she does).We offer a new method for instantiating Bayesian Knowledge Tracing, using machine learning to make contextual estimations of the probability that a student has guessed or slipped. This method is no more prone to problems with Identifiability than Beck's solution, has less Model Degeneracy than competing approaches, and fits student performance data better than prior methods. Thus, it allows for more accurate and reliable student modeling in ITSs that use knowledge tracing. Knowledge Tracing (BKT) is a common way of determining student knowledge of skills in adaptive educational systems and cognitive tutors. The basic BKT is a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) that models student knowledge based on five parameters: prior, learn rate, forget, guess, and slip. Expectation Maximization (EM) is often used to learn these parameters from training data. However, EM is a time-consuming process, and is prone to converging to erroneous, implausible local optima depending on the initial values of the BKT parameters. In this paper we address these two problems by using spectral learning to learn a Predictive State Representation (PSR) that represents the BKT HMM. We then use a heuristic to extract the BKT parameters from the learned PSR using basic matrix operations. The spectral learning method is based on an approximate factorization of the estimated covariance of windows from students' sequences of correct and incorrect responses; it is fast, local-optimum-free, and statistically consistent. In the past few years, spectral techniques have been used on real-world problems involving latent variables in dynamical systems, computer vision, and natural language processing. Our results suggest that the parameters learned by the spectral algorithm can replace the parameters learned by EM; the results of our study show that the spectral algorithm can improve knowledge tracing parameter- fitting time significantly while maintaining the same prediction accuracy, or help to improve accuracy while still keeping parameter-fitting time equivalent to EM. Despite the prevalence of e-learning systems in schools, most of today's systems do not personalize educational data to the individual needs of each student. This paper proposes a new algorithm for sequencing questions to students that is empirically shown to lead to better performance and engagement in real schools when compared to a baseline approach. It is based on using knowledge tracing to model students' skill acquisition over time, and to select questions that advance the student's learning within the range of the student's capabilities, as determined by the model. The algorithm is based on a Bayesian Knowledge Tracing (BKT) model that incorporates partial credit scores, reasoning about multiple attempts to solve problems, and integrating item difficulty. This model is shown to outperform other BKT models that do not reason about (or reason about some but not all) of these features. The model was incorporated into a sequencing algorithm and deployed in two classes in different schools where it was compared to a baseline sequencing algorithm that was designed by pedagogical experts. In both classes, students using the BKT sequencing approach solved more difficult questions and attributed higher performance than did students who used the expert-based approach. Students were also more engaged using the BKT approach, as determined by their interaction time and number of log-ins to the system, as well as their reported opinion. We expect our approach to inform the design of better methods for sequencing and personalizing educational content to students that will meet their individual learning needs.