Different machine learning techniques have been proposed and used for modeling individual and group user needs, interests and preferences. In the traditional predictive modeling instances are described by observable variables, called attributes. The goal is to learn a model for predicting the target variable for unseen instances. For example, for marketing purposes a company consider profiling a new user based on her observed web browsing behavior, referral keywords or other relevant information. In many real world applications the values of some attributes are not only observable, but can be actively decided by a decision maker. Furthermore, in some of such applications the decision maker is interested not only to generate accurate predictions, but to maximize the probability of the desired outcome. For example, a direct marketing manager can choose which type of a special offer to send to a client (actionable attribute), hoping that the right choice will result in a positive response with a higher probability. We study how to learn to choose the value of an actionable attribute in order to maximize the probability of a desired outcome in predictive modeling. We emphasize that not all instances are equally sensitive to changes in actions. Accurate choice of an action is critical for those instances, which are on the borderline (e.g. users who do not have a strong opinion one way or the other). We formulate three supervised learning approaches for learning to select the value of an actionable attribute at an instance level. We also introduce a focused training procedure which puts more emphasis on the situations where varying the action is the most likely to take the effect. The proof of concept experimental validation on two real-world case studies in web analytics and e-learning domains highlights the potential of the proposed approaches.
In @cite_25 @cite_30 actionable knowledge is extracted from . The approaches relate to the proposed Seek approach. The idea is to inspect the resulting tree and find what attributes could be changed in order to end up in the decision leaf with higher probability of the desired outcome. Instead of assuming actionable and observable attributes, the authors introduce a cost matrix for changing the value of each attribute. Impossible actions are marked with infinite costs (like changing from an adult to a child).
@cite_30 @cite_25
2400287765 2951503583 1558666744 2293258084
A popular approach for online decision making in large MDPs is time-bounded tree search. The effectiveness of tree search, however, is largely influenced by the action branching factor, which limits the search depth given a time bound. An obvious way to reduce action branching is to consider only a subset of potentially good actions at each state as specified by a provided partial policy. In this work, we consider offline learning of such partial policies with the goal of speeding up search without significantly reducing decision-making quality. Our first contribution is to study learning algorithms based on reducing our learning problem to i.i.d. supervised learning. We give a reduction-style analysis of three such algorithms, each making different assumptions, which relates the supervised learning objectives to the sub-optimality of search using the learned partial policies. Our second contribution is to describe concrete implementations of the algorithms within the popular framework of Monte-Carlo tree search. Finally, the third contribution is to evaluate the learning algorithms in two challenging MDPs with large action branching factors, showing that the learned partial policies can significantly improve the anytime performance of Monte-Carlo tree search. In many settings, a decision-maker wishes to learn a rule, or policy, that maps from observable characteristics of an individual to an action. Examples include selecting offers, prices, advertisements, or emails to send to consumers, as well as the problem of determining which medication to prescribe to a patient. While there is a growing body of literature devoted to this problem, most existing results are focused on the case where data comes from a randomized experiment, and further, there are only two possible actions, such as giving a drug to a patient or not. In this paper, we study the offline multi-action policy learning problem with observational data and where the policy may need to respect budget constraints or belong to a restricted policy class such as decision trees. We build on the theory of efficient semi-parametric inference in order to propose and implement a policy learning algorithm that achieves asymptotically minimax-optimal regret. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first result of this type in the multi-action setup, and it provides a substantial performance improvement over the existing learning algorithms. We then consider additional computational challenges that arise in implementing our method for the case where the policy is restricted to take the form of a decision tree. We propose two different approaches, one using a mixed integer program formulation and the other using a tree-search based algorithm. Inductive learning techniques such as the naive Bayes and decision tree algorithms have been extended in the past to handle different types of costs mainly by distinguishing different costs of classification errors. However, it is an equally important issue to consider how to handle the test costs associated with querying the missing values in a test case. When the value of an attribute is missing in a test case, it may or may not be worthwhile to take the effort to obtain its missing value, depending on how much the value results in a potential gain in the classification accuracy. In this paper, we show how to obtain a test-cost sensitive naive Bayes classifier (csNB) by including a test strategy which determines how unknown attributes are selected to perform test on in order to minimize the sum of the mis-classification costs and test costs. We propose and evaluate several potential test strategies including one that allows several tests to be done at once. We empirically evaluate the csNB method, and show that it compares favorably with its decision tree counterpart. Searching in partially ordered structures has been considered in the context of information retrieval and efficient tree-like indices, as well as in hierarchy based knowledge representation. In this paper we focus on tree-like partial orders and consider the problem of identifying an initially unknown vertex in a tree by asking edge queries: an edge query e returns the component of T - e containing the vertex sought for, while incurring some known cost c ( e ) . The Tree Search Problem with Non-Uniform Cost is the following: given a tree T on n vertices, each edge having an associated cost, construct a strategy that minimizes the total cost of the identification in the worst case.Finding the strategy guaranteeing the minimum possible cost is an NP-complete problem already for input trees of degree 3 or diameter 6. The best known approximation guarantee was an O ( log ź n log ź log ź log ź n ) -approximation algorithm of (2012) 4.We improve upon the above results both from the algorithmic and the computational complexity point of view: We provide a novel algorithm that provides an O ( log ź n log ź log ź n ) -approximation of the cost of the optimal strategy. In addition, we show that finding an optimal strategy is NP-hard even when the input tree is a spider of diameter 6, i.e., at most one vertex has degree larger than 2.