How to recognise whether an observed person walks or runs? We consider a dynamic environment where observations (e.g. the posture of a person) are caused by different dynamic processes (walking or running) which are active one at a time and which may transition from one to another at any time. For this setup, switching dynamic models have been suggested previously, mostly, for linear and nonlinear dynamics in discrete time. Motivated by basic principles of computations in the brain (dynamic, internal models) we suggest a model for switching nonlinear differential equations. The switching process in the model is implemented by a Hopfield network and we use parametric dynamic movement primitives to represent arbitrary rhythmic motions. The model generates observed dynamics by linearly interpolating the primitives weighted by the switching variables and it is constructed such that standard filtering algorithms can be applied. In two experiments with synthetic planar motion and a human motion capture data set we show that inference with the unscented Kalman filter can successfully discriminate several dynamic processes online.
More recently, other continuous-time switched dynamic models have been proposed, for example, nonparametric models @cite_11 @cite_16 which extend Bayesian online change point detection @cite_14 @cite_18 using Gaussian processes. Although online inference methods for these models have been described, their aim is not to identify a known dynamic process, but rather to make accurate predictions of observations across change points at which the underlying dynamic process changes. Similarly, switched latent force models @cite_12 are nonparametric models in which the position of change points and the underlying dynamic processes are modelled using Gaussian processes and DMPs. The proposed inference method is offline, i.e., all observed data are used and again the aim is not to discriminate between different, previously learnt models. Rather, this approach could be used to learn parametric models based on the obtained change point posterior.
@cite_18 @cite_14 @cite_16 @cite_12 @cite_11
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We combine Bayesian online change point detection with Gaussian processes to create a nonparametric time series model which can handle change points. The model can be used to locate change points in an online manner; and, unlike other Bayesian online change point detection algorithms, is applicable when temporal correlations in a regime are expected. We show three variations on how to apply Gaussian processes in the change point context, each with their own advantages. We present methods to reduce the computational burden of these models and demonstrate it on several real world data sets. We introduce the Gaussian Process Convolution Model (GPCM), a two-stage non-parametric generative procedure to model stationary signals as the convolution between a continuous-time white-noise process and a continuous-time linear filter drawn from Gaussian process. The GPCM is a continuous-time nonparametric-window moving average process and, conditionally, is itself a Gaussian process with a nonparametric kernel defined in a probabilistic fashion. The generative model can be equivalently considered in the frequency domain, where the power spectral density of the signal is specified using a Gaussian process. One of the main contributions of the paper is to develop a novel variational free-energy approach based on inter-domain inducing variables that efficiently learns the continuous-time linear filter and infers the driving white-noise process. In turn, this scheme provides closed-form probabilistic estimates of the covariance kernel and the noise-free signal both in denoising and prediction scenarios. Additionally, the variational inference procedure provides closed-form expressions for the approximate posterior of the spectral density given the observed data, leading to new Bayesian nonparametric approaches to spectrum estimation. The proposed GPCM is validated using synthetic and real-world signals. In this paper, we propose a Gaussian process (GP) model for analysis of nonlinear time series. Formulation of our model is based on the consideration that the observed data are functions of latent variables, with the associated mapping between observations and latent representations modeled through GP priors. In addition, to capture the temporal dynamics in the modeled data, we assume that subsequent latent representations depend on each other on the basis of a hidden Markov prior imposed over them. Derivation of our model is performed by marginalizing out the model parameters in closed form using GP priors for observation mappings, and appropriate stick-breaking priors for the latent variable (Markovian) dynamics. This way, we eventually obtain a nonparametric Bayesian model for dynamical systems that accounts for uncertainty in the modeled data. We provide efficient inference algorithms for our model on the basis of a truncated variational Bayesian approximation. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach considering a number of applications dealing with real-world data, and compare it with the related state-of-the-art approaches. We consider the estimation of an independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) (possibly non-Gaussian) vector x ∈ Rn from measurements y ∈ Rm obtained by a general cascade model consisting of a known linear transform followed by a probabilistic componentwise (possibly nonlinear) measurement channel. A novel method, called adaptive generalized approximate message passing (adaptive GAMP) is presented. It enables the joint learning of the statistics of the prior and measurement channel along with estimation of the unknown vector x. We prove that, for large i.i.d. Gaussian transform matrices, the asymptotic componentwise behavior of the adaptive GAMP is predicted by a simple set of scalar state evolution equations. In addition, we show that the adaptive GAMP yields asymptotically consistent parameter estimates, when a certain maximum-likelihood estimation can be performed in each step. This implies that the algorithm achieves a reconstruction quality equivalent to the oracle algorithm that knows the correct parameter values. Remarkably, this result applies to essentially arbitrary parametrizations of the unknown distributions, including nonlinear and non-Gaussian ones. The adaptive GAMP methodology thus provides a systematic, general and computationally efficient method applicable to a large range of linear-nonlinear models with provable guarantees.