Traditional stock market prediction methods commonly only utilize the historical trading data, ignoring the fact that stock market fluctuations can be impacted by various other information sources such as stock related events. Although some recent works propose event-driven prediction approaches by considering the event data, how to leverage the joint impacts of multiple data sources still remains an open research problem. In this work, we study how to explore multiple data sources to improve the performance of the stock prediction. We introduce an Extended Coupled Hidden Markov Model incorporating the news events with the historical trading data. To address the data sparsity issue of news events for each single stock, we further study the fluctuation correlations between the stocks and incorporate the correlations into the model to facilitate the prediction task. Evaluations on China A-share market data in 2016 show the superior performance of our model against previous methods.
There are also a few studies that analyze the impacts of sentiments on stock market volatility. One main data source for sentiment analysis is the news articles @cite_35 @cite_45 @cite_7 @cite_23 , and the other common data source is the social media @cite_6 @cite_22 @cite_40 @cite_48 . @cite_22 use sentiment and attention indicators extracted from microblogs and survey indices to predict stock market behavior. Topics and related sentiments are extracted from the texts in a message board, which are provided to facilitate stock prediction @cite_26 . With Twitter data, the social relations between stocks are exploited to build a stock network based on the co-occurring relationships @cite_49 . Then a lexicon-based sentiment analysis method is applied to compute the sentiment score for each node and each edge. The sentiment time series and price time series are used for prediction. However, these studies didn't take the impacts of the news events into account.
@cite_35 @cite_26 @cite_22 @cite_7 @cite_48 @cite_6 @cite_40 @cite_45 @cite_23 @cite_49
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Predicting stock market movements is a well-known problem of interest. Now-a-days social media is perfectly representing the public sentiment and opinion about current events. Especially, Twitter has attracted a lot of attention from researchers for studying the public sentiments. Stock market prediction on the basis of public sentiments expressed on Twitter has been an intriguing field of research. Previous studies have concluded that the aggregate public mood collected from Twitter may well be correlated with Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJIA). The thesis of this work is to observe how well the changes in stock prices of a company, the rises and falls, are correlated with the public opinions being expressed in tweets about that company. Understanding author's opinion from a piece of text is the objective of sentiment analysis. The present paper have employed two different textual representations, Word2vec and N-gram, for analyzing the public sentiments in tweets. In this paper, we have applied sentiment analysis and supervised machine learning principles to the tweets extracted from Twitter and analyze the correlation between stock market movements of a company and sentiments in tweets. In an elaborate way, positive news and tweets in social media about a company would definitely encourage people to invest in the stocks of that company and as a result the stock price of that company would increase. At the end of the paper, it is shown that a strong correlation exists between the rise and falls in stock prices with the public sentiments in tweets. Studying the relationship between public sentiment and stock prices has been the focus of several studies. This paper analyzes whether the sentiment expressed in Twitter feeds, which discuss selected companies and their products, can indicate their stock price changes. To address this problem, an active learning approach was developed and applied to sentiment analysis of tweet streams in the stock market domain. The paper first presents a static Twitter data analysis problem, explored in order to determine the best Twitter-specific text preprocessing setting for training the Support Vector Machine (SVM) sentiment classifier. In the static setting, the Granger causality test shows that sentiments in stock-related tweets can be used as indicators of stock price movements a few days in advance, where improved results were achieved by adapting the SVM classifier to categorize Twitter posts into three sentiment categories of positive, negative and neutral (instead of positive and negative only). These findings were adopted in the development of a new stream-based active learning approach to sentiment analysis, applicable in incremental learning from continuously changing financial tweet streams. To this end, a series of experiments was conducted to determine the best querying strategy for active learning of the SVM classifier adapted to sentiment analysis of financial tweet streams. The experiments in analyzing stock market sentiments of a particular company show that changes in positive sentiment probability can be used as indicators of the changes in stock closing prices. Abstract Recent studies in behavioral finance discover that emotional impulses of stock investors affect stock prices. The challenge lies in how to quantify such sentiment to predict stock market movements. In this article, we propose a media-aware quantitative trading strategy utilizing sentiment information of Web media. This is achieved by capturing public mood from interactive behaviors of investors in social media and studying the impact of firm-specific news sentiment on stocks along with such public mood. Our experiments on the CSI 100 stocks during a three-month period show that a predictive performance in closeness to the actual future stock price is 0.612 in terms of root mean squared error, the same direction of price movement as the future price is 55.08 , and a simulation trading return is up to 166.11 . Financial news articles are believed to have impacts on stock price return. Previous works model news pieces in bag-of-words space, which analyzes the latent relationship between word statistical patterns and stock price movements. However, news sentiment, which is an important ring on the chain of mapping from the word patterns to the price movements, is rarely touched. In this paper, we first implement a generic stock price prediction framework, and plug in six different models with different analyzing approaches. To take one step further, we use Harvard psychological dictionary and Loughran–McDonald financial sentiment dictionary to construct a sentiment space. Textual news articles are then quantitatively measured and projected onto the sentiment space. Instance labeling method is rigorously discussed and tested. We evaluate the models' prediction accuracy and empirically compare their performance at different market classification levels. Experiments are conducted on five years historical Hong Kong Stock Exchange prices and news articles. Results show that (1) at individual stock, sector and index levels, the models with sentiment analysis outperform the bag-of-words model in both validation set and independent testing set; (2) the models which use sentiment polarity cannot provide useful predictions; (3) there is a minor difference between the models using two different sentiment dictionaries.