How do blogs cite and influence each other? How do such links evolve? Does the popularity of old blog posts drop exponentially with time? These are some of the questions that we address in this work. Our goal is to build a model that generates realistic cascades, so that it can help us with link prediction and outlier detection. Blogs (weblogs) have become an important medium of information because of their timely publication, ease of use, and wide availability. In fact, they often make headlines, by discussing and discovering evidence about political events and facts. Often blogs link to one another, creating a publicly available record of how information and influence spreads through an underlying social network. Aggregating links from several blog posts creates a directed graph which we analyze to discover the patterns of information propagation in blogspace, and thereby understand the underlying social network. Not only are blogs interesting on their own merit, but our analysis also sheds light on how rumors, viruses, and ideas propagate over social and computer networks. Here we report some surprising findings of the blog linking and information propagation structure, after we analyzed one of the largest available datasets, with 45,000 blogs and 2.2 million blog-postings. Our analysis also sheds light on how rumors, viruses, and ideas propagate over social and computer networks. We also present a simple model that mimics the spread of information on the blogosphere, and produces information cascades very similar to those found in real life.
Most work on modeling link behavior in large-scale on-line data has been done in the blog domain @cite_21 @cite_12 @cite_11 . The authors note that, while information propagates between blogs, examples of genuine cascading behavior appeared relatively rare. This may, however, be due in part to the Web-crawling and text analysis techniques used to infer relationships among posts @cite_12 @cite_1 . Our work here differs in a way that we concentrate solely on the propagation of links, and do not infer additional links from text of the post, which gives us more accurate information.
@cite_21 @cite_1 @cite_12 @cite_11
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While the study of the connection between discourse patterns and personal identification is decades old, the study of these patterns using language technologies is relatively recent. In that more recent tradition we frame author age prediction from text as a regression problem. We explore the same task using three very different genres of data simultaneously: blogs, telephone conversations, and online forum posts. We employ a technique from domain adaptation that allows us to train a joint model involving all three corpora together as well as separately and analyze differences in predictive features across joint and corpus-specific aspects of the model. Effective features include both stylistic ones (such as POS patterns) as well as content oriented ones. Using a linear regression model based on shallow text features, we obtain correlations up to 0.74 and mean absolute errors between 4.1 and 6.8 years. Link prediction for knowledge graphs is the task of predicting missing relationships between entities. Previous work on link prediction has focused on shallow, fast models which can scale to large knowledge graphs. However, these models learn less expressive features than deep, multi-layer models -- which potentially limits performance. In this work, we introduce ConvE, a multi-layer convolutional network model for link prediction, and report state-of-the-art results for several established datasets. We also show that the model is highly parameter efficient, yielding the same performance as DistMult and R-GCN with 8x and 17x fewer parameters. Analysis of our model suggests that it is particularly effective at modelling nodes with high indegree -- which are common in highly-connected, complex knowledge graphs such as Freebase and YAGO3. In addition, it has been noted that the WN18 and FB15k datasets suffer from test set leakage, due to inverse relations from the training set being present in the test set -- however, the extent of this issue has so far not been quantified. We find this problem to be severe: a simple rule-based model can achieve state-of-the-art results on both WN18 and FB15k. To ensure that models are evaluated on datasets where simply exploiting inverse relations cannot yield competitive results, we investigate and validate several commonly used datasets -- deriving robust variants where necessary. We then perform experiments on these robust datasets for our own and several previously proposed models and find that ConvE achieves state-of-the-art Mean Reciprocal Rank across most datasets. With an increasing number of people that read, write and comment on blogs, the blogosphere has established itself as an essential medium of communication. A fundamental characteristic of the blogging activity is that bloggers often link to each other. The succession of linking behavior determines the way in which information propagates in the blogosphere, forming cascades. Analyzing cascades can be useful in various applications, such as providing insight of public opinion on various topics and developing better cascade models. This paper presents the results of an excessive study on cascading behavior in the blogosphere. Our objective is to present trends on the degree of engagement and reaction of bloggers in stories that become available in blogs under various parameters and constraints. To this end, we analyze cascades that are attributed to different population groups constrained by factors of gender, age, and continent. We also analyze how cascades differentiate depending on their subject. Our analysis is performed on one of the largest available datasets, including 30M active blogs and 700M posts. The study reveals large variations in the properties of cascades. Research on performance, robustness, and evolution of the global Internet is fundamentally handicapped without accurate and thorough knowledge of the nature and structure of the contractual relationships between Autonomous Systems (ASs). In this work we introduce novel heuristics for inferring AS relationships. Our heuristics improve upon previous works in several technical aspects, which we outline in detail and demonstrate with several examples. Seeking to increase the value and reliability of our inference results, we then focus on validation of inferred AS relationships. We perform a survey with ASs' network administrators to collect information on the actual connectivity and policies of the surveyed ASs. Based on the survey results, we find that our new AS relationship inference techniques achieve high levels of accuracy: we correctly infer 96.5 customer to provider (c2p), 82.8 peer to peer (p2p), and 90.3 sibling to sibling (s2s) relationships. We then cross-compare the reported AS connectivity with the AS connectivity data contained in BGP tables. We find that BGP tables miss up to 86.2 of the true adjacencies of the surveyed ASs. The majority of the missing links are of the p2p type, which highlights the limitations of present measuring techniques to capture links of this type. Finally, to make our results easily accessible and practically useful for the community, we open an AS relationship repository where we archive, on a weekly basis, and make publicly available the complete Internet AS-level topology annotated with AS relationship information for every pair of AS neighbors.