In many areas of data mining, data is collected from humans beings. In this contribution, we ask the question of how people actually respond to ordinal scales. The main problem observed is that users tend to be volatile in their choices, i.e. complex cognitions do not always lead to the same decisions, but to distributions of possible decision outputs. This human uncertainty may sometimes have quite an impact on common data mining approaches and thus, the question of effective modelling this so called human uncertainty emerges naturally. Our contribution introduces two different approaches for modelling the human uncertainty of user responses. In doing so, we develop techniques in order to measure this uncertainty at the level of user inputs as well as the level of user cognition. With support of comprehensive user experiments and large-scale simulations, we systematically compare both methodologies along with their implications for personalisation approaches. Our findings demonstrate that significant amounts of users do submit something completely different (action) than they really have in mind (cognition). Moreover, we demonstrate that statistically sound evidence with respect to algorithm assessment becomes quite hard to realise, especially when explicit rankings shall be built.
The complexity of human perception and cognition can be addressed by means of latent distributions. This idea is widely used in cognitive science and in statistical models for ordinal data. For example, so-called CUB models for ordinal data @cite_12 assume the Gaussian as a latent response model underlying the observations. We adopt the idea of modelling user uncertainty by means of individual Gaussians following the argumentation in @cite_12 for constructing our individual response models.
@cite_12
2013652217 2108306139 2261396597 2907176385
This article presents a Bayesian latent variable model used to analyze ordinal response survey data by taking into account the characteristics of respondents. The ordinal response data are viewed as multivariate responses arising from continuous latent variables with known cut-points. Each respondent is characterized by two parameters that have a Dirichlet process as their joint prior distribution. The proposed mechanism adjusts for classes of personalities. The model is applied to student survey data in course evaluations. Goodness-of-fit (GoF) procedures are developed for assessing the validity of the model. The proposed GoF procedures are simple, intuitive, and do not seem to be a part of current Bayesian practice. Abstract A vast literature in statistics, biometrics, and econometrics is concerned with the analysis of binary and polychotomous response data. The classical approach fits a categorical response regression model using maximum likelihood, and inferences about the model are based on the associated asymptotic theory. The accuracy of classical confidence statements is questionable for small sample sizes. In this article, exact Bayesian methods for modeling categorical response data are developed using the idea of data augmentation. The general approach can be summarized as follows. The probit regression model for binary outcomes is seen to have an underlying normal regression structure on latent continuous data. Values of the latent data can be simulated from suitable truncated normal distributions. If the latent data are known, then the posterior distribution of the parameters can be computed using standard results for normal linear models. Draws from this posterior are used to sample new latent data, and t... Representation learning systems typically rely on massive amounts of labeled data in order to be trained to high accuracy. Recently, high-dimensional parametric models like neural networks have succeeded in building rich representations using either compressive, reconstructive or supervised criteria. However, the semantic structure inherent in observations is oftentimes lost in the process. Human perception excels at understanding semantics but cannot always be expressed in terms of labels. Thus, or , for example crowdsourcing, are often employed to generate similarity constraints using an implicit similarity function encoded in human perception. In this work we propose to combine with a in order to transfer implicit privileged oracle knowledge into explicit nonlinear Bayesian latent factor models of the observations. We use a fast variational algorithm to learn the joint model and demonstrate applicability to a well-known image dataset. We show how implicit triplet information can provide rich information to learn representations that outperform previous metric learning approaches as well as generative models without this side-information in a variety of predictive tasks. In addition, we illustrate that the proposed approach compartmentalizes the latent spaces semantically which allows interpretation of the latent variables. As deep neural networks (DNNs) are applied to increasingly challenging problems, they will need to be able to represent their own uncertainty. Modeling uncertainty is one of the key features of Bayesian methods. Using Bernoulli dropout with sampling at prediction time has recently been proposed as an efficient and well performing variational inference method for DNNs. However, sampling from other multiplicative noise based variational distributions has not been investigated in depth. We evaluated Bayesian DNNs trained with Bernoulli or Gaussian multiplicative masking of either the units (dropout) or the weights (dropconnect). We tested the calibration of the probabilistic predictions of Bayesian convolutional neural networks (CNNs) on MNIST and CIFAR-10. Sampling at prediction time increased the calibration of the DNNs' probabalistic predictions. Sampling weights, whether Gaussian or Bernoulli, led to more robust representation of uncertainty compared to sampling of units. However, using either Gaussian or Bernoulli dropout led to increased test set classification accuracy. Based on these findings we used both Bernoulli dropout and Gaussian dropconnect concurrently, which we show approximates the use of a spike-and-slab variational distribution without increasing the number of learned parameters. We found that spike-and-slab sampling had higher test set performance than Gaussian dropconnect and more robustly represented its uncertainty compared to Bernoulli dropout.