For all @math , we show that the set of Poisson Binomial distributions on @math variables admits a proper @math -cover in total variation distance of size @math , which can also be computed in polynomial time. We discuss the implications of our construction for approximation algorithms and the computation of approximate Nash equilibria in anonymous games.
These results provide structural information about PBDs that can be well approximated by simpler distributions, but fall short of our goal of approximating a PBD to within arbitrary accuracy . Indeed, the approximations obtained in the probability literature (such as the Poisson, Normal and Binomial approximations) typically depend on the first few moments of the PBD being approximated, while higher moments are crucial for arbitrary approximation @cite_22 . At the same time, algorithmic applications often require that the approximating distribution is of the same kind as the distribution that is being approximated. E.g., in the anonymous game application mentioned earlier, the parameters of the given PBD correspond to mixed strategies of players at Nash equilibrium, and the parameters of the approximating PBD correspond to mixed strategies at approximate Nash equilibrium. Approximating the given PBD via a Poisson or a Normal distribution would not have any meaning in the context of a game.
@cite_22
2139774323 1857802886 2122653474 1576554202
(This article originally appeared in Management Science, November 1967, Volume 14, Number 3, pp. 159-182, published by The Institute of Management Sciences.) The paper develops a new theory for the analysis of games with incomplete information where the players are uncertain about some important parameters of the game situation, such as the payoff functions, the strategies available to various players, the information other players have about the game, etc. However, each player has a subjective probability distribution over the alternative possibilities. In most of the paper it is assumed that these probability distributions entertained by the different players are mutually "consistent," in the sense that they can be regarded as conditional probability distributions derived from a certain "basic probability distribution" over the parameters unknown to the various players. But later the theory is extended also to cases where the different players' subjective probability distributions fail to satisfy this consistency assumption. In cases where the consistency assumption holds, the original game can be replaced by a game where nature first conducts a lottery in accordance with the basic probability distribution, and the outcome of this lottery will decide which particular subgame will be played, i.e., what the actual values of the relevant parameters will be in the game. Yet, each player will receive only partial information about the outcome of the lottery, and about the values of these parameters. However, every player will know the "basic probability distribution" governing the lottery. Thus, technically, the resulting game will be a game with complete information. It is called the Bayes-equivalent of the original game. Part I of the paper describes the basic model and discusses various intuitive interpretations for the latter. Part II shows that the Nash equilibrium points of the Bayes-equivalent game yield "Bayesian equilibrium points" for the original game. Finally, Part III considers the main properties of the "basic probability distribution." One reason for wanting to compute an (approximate) Nash equilibrium of a game is to predict how players will play. However, if the game has multiple equilibria that are far apart, or e-equilibria that are far in variation distance from the true Nash equilibrium strategies, then this prediction may not be possible even in principle. Motivated by this consideration, in this paper we define the notion of games that are approximation stable, meaning that all e-approximate equilibria are contained inside a small ball of radius Δ around a true equilibrium, and investigate a number of their properties. Many natural small games such as matching pennies and rock-paper-scissors are indeed approximation stable. We show furthermore there exist 2-player n-by-n approximationstable games in which the Nash equilibrium and all approximate equilibria have support Ω(log n). On the other hand, we show all (e,Δ) approximation-stable games must have an e-equilibrium of support O(Δ2-o(1) e2 log n), yielding an immediate nO(Δ2-o(1) e2 log n) -time algorithm, improving over the bound of [11] for games satisfying this condition. We in addition give a polynomial-time algorithm for the case that Δ and e are sufficiently close together. We also consider an inverse property, namely that all non-approximate equilibria are far from some true equilibrium, and give an efficient algorithm for games satisfying that condition. We show that there is a polynomial-time approximation scheme for computing Nash equilibria in anonymous games with any fixed number of strategies (a very broad and important class of games), extending the two-strategy result of Daskalakis and Papadimitriou 2007. The approximation guarantee follows from a probabilistic result of more general interest: The distribution of the sum of n independent unit vectors with values ranging over e1,...,ek , where ei is the unit vector along dimension i of the k-dimensional Euclidean space, can be approximated by the distribution of the sum of another set of independent unit vectors whose probabilities of obtaining each value are multiples of 1 z for some integer z, and so that the variational distance of the two distributions is at most eps, where eps is bounded by an inverse polynomial in z and a function of k, but with no dependence on n. Our probabilistic result specifies the construction of a surprisingly sparse epsi-cover- under the total variation distance - of the set of distributions of sums of independent unit vectors, which is of interest on its own right. We consider the problem of computing a Nash equilibrium in multiple-player games. It is known that there exist games, in which all the equilibria have irrational entries in their probability distributions [19]. This suggests that either we should look for symbolic representations of equilibria or we should focus on computing approximate equilibria. We show that every finite game has an equilibrium such that all the entries in the probability distributions are algebraic numbers and hence can be finitely represented. We also propose an algorithm which computes an approximate equilibrium in the following sense: the strategies output by the algorithm are close with respect to l ∞ -norm to those of an exact Nash equilibrium and also the players have only a negligible incentive to deviate to another strategy. The running time of the algorithm is exponential in the number of strategies and polynomial in the digits of accuracy. We obtain similar results for approximating market equilibria in the neoclassical exchange model under certain assumptions.