The organizer of a machine learning competition faces the problem of maintaining an accurate leaderboard that faithfully represents the quality of the best submission of each competing team. What makes this estimation problem particularly challenging is its sequential and adaptive nature. As participants are allowed to repeatedly evaluate their submissions on the leaderboard, they may begin to overfit to the holdout data that supports the leaderboard. Few theoretical results give actionable advice on how to design a reliable leaderboard. Existing approaches therefore often resort to poorly understood heuristics such as limiting the bit precision of answers and the rate of re-submission. In this work, we introduce a notion of "leaderboard accuracy" tailored to the format of a competition. We introduce a natural algorithm called "the Ladder" and demonstrate that it simultaneously supports strong theoretical guarantees in a fully adaptive model of estimation, withstands practical adversarial attacks, and achieves high utility on real submission files from an actual competition hosted by Kaggle. Notably, we are able to sidestep a powerful recent hardness result for adaptive risk estimation that rules out algorithms such as ours under a seemingly very similar notion of accuracy. On a practical note, we provide a completely parameter-free variant of our algorithm that can be deployed in a real competition with no tuning required whatsoever.
A highly relevant recent work @cite_3 , that inspired us, studies a more general question: Given a sequence of bounded functions @math over a domain @math estimate the expectations of these function @math over an unknown distribution @math given @math samples from this distribution. If we think of each function as expressing the loss of one classifier submitted to the leaderboard, then such an algorithm could in principle be used in our setting. The main result of @cite_3 is an algorithm that achieves maximum error [ O ( (k)^ 3 7 ( |X|)^ 1 7 n^ 2 7 ,( |X| (k) n)^ 1 4 ) ] This bound readily implies a corresponding result for leaderboard accuracy albeit worse than the one we show. One issue is that this algorithm requires the entire test set to be withheld and not just the labels as is required in the Kaggle application. The bigger obstacle is that the algorithm is unfortunately not computationally efficient and this is inherent. In fact, no computationally efficient algorithm can give non-trivial error on @math adaptively chosen functions as was shown recently @cite_0 @cite_1 under a standard computational hardness assumption.
@cite_0 @cite_1 @cite_3
2000931246 2949121808 2952550721 2097646889
Let f be a random Boolean formula that is an instance of 3-SAT. We consider the problem of computing the least real number k such that if the ratio of the number of clauses over the number of variables of f strictly exceeds k , then f is almost certainly unsatisfiable. By a well-known and more or less straightforward argument, it can be shown that kF5.191. This upper bound was improved by to 4.758 by first providing new improved bounds for the occupancy problem. There is strong experimental evidence that the value of k is around 4.2. In this work, we define, in terms of the random formula f, a decreasing sequence of random variables such that, if the expected value of any one of them converges to zero, then f is almost certainly unsatisfiable. By letting the expected value of the first term of the sequence converge to zero, we obtain, by simple and elementary computations, an upper bound for k equal to 4.667. From the expected value of the second term of the sequence, we get the value 4.601q . In general, by letting the U This work was performed while the first author was visiting the School of Computer Science, Carleton Ž University, and was partially supported by NSERC Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council . of Canada , and by a grant from the University of Patras for sabbatical leaves. The second and third Ž authors were supported in part by grants from NSERC Natural Sciences and Engineering Research . Council of Canada . During the last stages of this research, the first and last authors were also partially Ž . supported by EU ESPRIT Long-Term Research Project ALCOM-IT Project No. 20244 . †An extended abstract of this paper was published in the Proceedings of the Fourth Annual European Ž Symposium on Algorithms, ESA’96, September 25]27, 1996, Barcelona, Spain Springer-Verlag, LNCS, . pp. 27]38 . That extended abstract was coauthored by the first three authors of the present paper. Correspondence to: L. M. Kirousis Q 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. CCC 1042-9832r98r030253-17 253 Let @math be a @math -ary predicate over a finite alphabet. Consider a random CSP @math instance @math over @math variables with @math constraints. When @math the instance @math will be unsatisfiable with high probability, and we want to find a refutation - i.e., a certificate of unsatisfiability. When @math is the @math -ary OR predicate, this is the well studied problem of refuting random @math -SAT formulas, and an efficient algorithm is known only when @math . Understanding the density required for refutation of other predicates is important in cryptography, proof complexity, and learning theory. Previously, it was known that for a @math -ary predicate, having @math constraints suffices for refutation. We give a criterion for predicates that often yields efficient refutation algorithms at much lower densities. Specifically, if @math fails to support a @math -wise uniform distribution, then there is an efficient algorithm that refutes random CSP @math instances @math whp when @math . Indeed, our algorithm will "somewhat strongly" refute @math , certifying @math , if @math then we get the strongest possible refutation, certifying @math . This last result is new even in the context of random @math -SAT. Regarding the optimality of our @math requirement, prior work on SDP hierarchies has given some evidence that efficient refutation of random CSP @math may be impossible when @math . Thus there is an indication our algorithm's dependence on @math is optimal for every @math , at least in the context of SDP hierarchies. Along these lines, we show that our refutation algorithm can be carried out by the @math -round SOS SDP hierarchy. Finally, as an application of our result, we falsify assumptions used to show hardness-of-learning results in recent work of Daniely, Linial, and Shalev-Shwartz. We show that, under a standard hardness assumption, there is no computationally efficient algorithm that given @math samples from an unknown distribution can give valid answers to @math adaptively chosen statistical queries. A statistical query asks for the expectation of a predicate over the underlying distribution, and an answer to a statistical query is valid if it is "close" to the correct expectation over the distribution. Our result stands in stark contrast to the well known fact that exponentially many statistical queries can be answered validly and efficiently if the queries are chosen non-adaptively (no query may depend on the answers to previous queries). Moreover, a recent work by shows how to accurately answer exponentially many adaptively chosen statistical queries via a computationally inefficient algorithm; and how to answer a quadratic number of adaptive queries via a computationally efficient algorithm. The latter result implies that our result is tight up to a linear factor in @math Conceptually, our result demonstrates that achieving statistical validity alone can be a source of computational intractability in adaptive settings. For example, in the modern large collaborative research environment, data analysts typically choose a particular approach based on previous findings. False discovery occurs if a research finding is supported by the data but not by the underlying distribution. While the study of preventing false discovery in Statistics is decades old, to the best of our knowledge our result is the first to demonstrate a computational barrier. In particular, our result suggests that the perceived difficulty of preventing false discovery in today's collaborative research environment may be inherent. By the breakthrough work of Hastad [J ACM 48(4) (2001), 798–859], several constraint satisfaction problems are now known to have the following approximation resistance property: Satisfying more clauses than what picking a random assignment would achieve is NP-hard. This is the case for example for Max E3-Sat, Max E3-Lin, and Max E4-Set Splitting. A notable exception to this extreme hardness is constraint satisfaction over two variables (2-CSP); as a corollary of the celebrated Goemans-Williamson algorithm [J ACM 42(6) (1995), 1115–1145], we know that every Boolean 2-CSP has a nontrivial approximation algorithm whose performance ratio is better than that obtained by picking a random assignment to the variables. An intriguing question then is whether this is also the case for 2-CSPs over larger, non-Boolean domains. This question is still open, and is equivalent to whether the generalization of Max 2-SAT to domains of size d, can be approximated to a factor better than (1 − 1 d2). In an attempt to make progress towards this question, in this paper we prove, first, that a slight restriction of this problem, namely, a generalization of linear inequations with two variables per constraint, is not approximation resistant, and, second, that the Not-All-Equal Sat problem over domain size d with three variables per constraint, is approximation resistant, for every d ≥ 3. In the Boolean case, Not-All-Equal Sat with three variables per constraint is equivalent to Max 2-SAT and thus has a nontrivial approximation algorithm; for larger domain sizes, Max 2-SAT can be reduced to Not-All-Equal Sat with three variables per constraint. Our approximation algorithm implies that a wide class of 2-CSPs called regular 2-CSPs can all be approximated beyond their random assignment threshold. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Random Struct. Alg. 2004