We propose the use of a stochastic variational frame prediction deep neural network with a learned prior distribution trained on two-dimensional rain radar reflectivity maps for precipitation nowcasting with lead times of up to 2 1 2 hours. We present a comparison to a standard convolutional LSTM network and assess the evolution of the structural similarity index for both methods. Case studies are presented that illustrate that the novel methodology can yield meaningful forecasts without excessive blur for the time horizons of interest.
Here we adopt a slight modification of the methodology proposed in @cite_13 , see also @cite_8 @cite_1 for similar approaches. In particular, we train a stochastic variational autoencoder-like architecture with a learned prior distribution.
@cite_1 @cite_13 @cite_8
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Variational Autoencoders are powerful models for unsupervised learning. However deep models with several layers of dependent stochastic variables are difficult to train which limits the improvements obtained using these highly expressive models. We propose a new inference model, the Ladder Variational Autoencoder, that recursively corrects the generative distribution by a data dependent approximate likelihood in a process resembling the recently proposed Ladder Network. We show that this model provides state of the art predictive log-likelihood and tighter log-likelihood lower bound compared to the purely bottom-up inference in layered Variational Autoencoders and other generative models. We provide a detailed analysis of the learned hierarchical latent representation and show that our new inference model is qualitatively different and utilizes a deeper more distributed hierarchy of latent variables. Finally, we observe that batch normalization and deterministic warm-up (gradually turning on the KL-term) are crucial for training variational models with many stochastic layers. Variational autoencoders are powerful models for unsupervised learning. However deep models with several layers of dependent stochastic variables are difficult to train which limits the improvements obtained using these highly expressive models. We propose a new inference model, the Ladder Variational Autoencoder, that recursively corrects the generative distribution by a data dependent approximate likelihood in a process resembling the recently proposed Ladder Network. We show that this model provides state of the art predictive log-likelihood and tighter log-likelihood lower bound compared to the purely bottom-up inference in layered Variational Autoencoders and other generative models. We provide a detailed analysis of the learned hierarchical latent representation and show that our new inference model is qualitatively different and utilizes a deeper more distributed hierarchy of latent variables. Finally, we observe that batch-normalization and deterministic warm-up (gradually turning on the KL-term) are crucial for training variational models with many stochastic layers. We introduce a novel training principle for probabilistic models that is an alternative to maximum likelihood. The proposed Generative Stochastic Networks (GSN) framework is based on learning the transition operator of a Markov chain whose stationary distribution estimates the data distribution. The transition distribution of the Markov chain is conditional on the previous state, generally involving a small move, so this conditional distribution has fewer dominant modes, being unimodal in the limit of small moves. Thus, it is easier to learn because it is easier to approximate its partition function, more like learning to perform supervised function approximation, with gradients that can be obtained by backprop. We provide theorems that generalize recent work on the probabilistic interpretation of denoising autoencoders and obtain along the way an interesting justification for dependency networks and generalized pseudolikelihood, along with a definition of an appropriate joint distribution and sampling mechanism even when the conditionals are not consistent. GSNs can be used with missing inputs and can be used to sample subsets of variables given the rest. We validate these theoretical results with experiments on two image datasets using an architecture that mimics the Deep Boltzmann Machine Gibbs sampler but allows training to proceed with simple backprop, without the need for layerwise pretraining. We introduce a new representation learning approach for domain adaptation, in which data at training and test time come from similar but different distributions. Our approach is directly inspired by the theory on domain adaptation suggesting that, for effective domain transfer to be achieved, predictions must be made based on features that cannot discriminate between the training (source) and test (target) domains. The approach implements this idea in the context of neural network architectures that are trained on labeled data from the source domain and unlabeled data from the target domain (no labeled target-domain data is necessary). As the training progresses, the approach promotes the emergence of features that are (i) discriminative for the main learning task on the source domain and (ii) indiscriminate with respect to the shift between the domains. We show that this adaptation behaviour can be achieved in almost any feed-forward model by augmenting it with few standard layers and a new gradient reversal layer. The resulting augmented architecture can be trained using standard backpropagation and stochastic gradient descent, and can thus be implemented with little effort using any of the deep learning packages. We demonstrate the success of our approach for two distinct classification problems (document sentiment analysis and image classification), where state-of-the-art domain adaptation performance on standard benchmarks is achieved. We also validate the approach for descriptor learning task in the context of person re-identification application.