We analyze general trends and pattern in time series that characterize the dynamics of collective attention to social media services and Web-based businesses. Our study is based on search frequency data available from Google Trends and considers 175 different services. For each service, we collect data from 45 different countries as well as global averages. This way, we obtain more than 8,000 time series which we analyze using diffusion models from the economic sciences. We find that these models accurately characterize the empirical data and our analysis reveals that collective attention to social media grows and subsides in a highly regular and predictable manner. Regularities persist across regions, cultures, and topics and thus hint at general mechanisms that govern the adoption of Web-based services. We discuss several cases in detail to highlight interesting findings. Our methods are of economic interest as they may inform investment decisions and can help assessing at what stage of the general life-cycle a Web service is at.
In a delightful synchronicity, Cannarella and Spechler @cite_17 , Ribeiro @cite_19 , and we ourselves @cite_8 all published analyzes on how attention to social media evolves over time in early 2014. While @cite_17 was uploaded to arXiv, @cite_19 and @cite_17 were both presented at the International World Wide Web Conference in Seoul.
@cite_19 @cite_8 @cite_17
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We analyze the online response to the preprint publication of a cohort of 4,606 scientific articles submitted to the preprint database arXiv.org between October 2010 and May 2011. We study three forms of responses to these preprints: downloads on the arXiv.org site, mentions on the social media site Twitter, and early citations in the scholarly record. We perform two analyses. First, we analyze the delay and time span of article downloads and Twitter mentions following submission, to understand the temporal configuration of these reactions and whether one precedes or follows the other. Second, we run regression and correlation tests to investigate the relationship between Twitter mentions, arXiv downloads, and article citations. We find that Twitter mentions and arXiv downloads of scholarly articles follow two distinct temporal patterns of activity, with Twitter mentions having shorter delays and narrower time spans than arXiv downloads. We also find that the volume of Twitter mentions is statistically correlated with arXiv downloads and early citations just months after the publication of a preprint, with a possible bias that favors highly mentioned articles. Can we identify patterns of temporal activities caused by human communications in social media? Is it possible to model these patterns and tell if a user is a human or a bot based only on the timing of their postings? Social media services allow users to make postings, generating large datasets of human activity time-stamps. In this paper we analyze time-stamp data from social media services and find that the distribution of postings inter-arrival times (IAT) is characterized by four patterns: (i) positive correlation between consecutive IATs, (ii) heavy tails, (iii) periodic spikes and (iv) bimodal distribution. Based on our findings, we propose Rest-Sleep-and-Comment (RSC), a generative model that is able to match all four discovered patterns. We demonstrate the utility of RSC by showing that it can accurately fit real time-stamp data from Reddit and Twitter. We also show that RSC can be used to spot outliers and detect users with non-human behavior, such as bots. We validate RSC using real data consisting of over 35 million postings from Twitter and Reddit. RSC consistently provides a better fit to real data and clearly outperform existing models for human dynamics. RSC was also able to detect bots with a precision higher than 94 . Online content exhibits rich temporal dynamics, and diverse realtime user generated content further intensifies this process. However, temporal patterns by which online content grows and fades over time, and by which different pieces of content compete for attention remain largely unexplored. We study temporal patterns associated with online content and how the content's popularity grows and fades over time. The attention that content receives on the Web varies depending on many factors and occurs on very different time scales and at different resolutions. In order to uncover the temporal dynamics of online content we formulate a time series clustering problem using a similarity metric that is invariant to scaling and shifting. We develop the K-Spectral Centroid (K-SC) clustering algorithm that effectively finds cluster centroids with our similarity measure. By applying an adaptive wavelet-based incremental approach to clustering, we scale K-SC to large data sets. We demonstrate our approach on two massive datasets: a set of 580 million Tweets, and a set of 170 million blog posts and news media articles. We find that K-SC outperforms the K-means clustering algorithm in finding distinct shapes of time series. Our analysis shows that there are six main temporal shapes of attention of online content. We also present a simple model that reliably predicts the shape of attention by using information about only a small number of participants. Our analyses offer insight into common temporal patterns of the content on theWeb and broaden the understanding of the dynamics of human attention. With the explosive growth of online media platforms in recent years, it becomes more and more attractive to provide users a solution of emerging topic detection and elaboration. And this posts a real challenge to both industrial and academic researchers because of the overwhelming information available in multiple modalities and with large outlier noises. This article provides a method on emerging topic detection and elaboration using multimedia streams cross different online platforms. Specifically, Twitter, New York Times and Flickr are selected for the work to represent the microblog, news portal and imaging sharing platforms. The emerging keywords of Twitter are firstly extracted using aging theory. Then, to overcome the nature of short length message in microblog, Robust Cross-Platform Multimedia Co-Clustering (RCPMM-CC) is proposed to detect emerging topics with three novelties: 1) The data from different media platforms are in multimodalities; 2) The coclustering is processed based on a pairwise correlated structure, in which the involved three media platforms are pairwise dependent; 3) The noninformative samples are automatically pruned away at the same time of coclustering. In the last step of cross-platform elaboration, we enrich each emerging topic with the samples from New York Times and Flickr by computing the implicit links between social topics and samples from selected news and Flickr image clusters, which are obtained by RCPMM-CC. Qualitative and quantitative evaluation results demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.