Investment decisions can benefit from incorporating an accumulated knowledge of the past to drive future decision making. We introduce Continual Learning Augmentation (CLA) which is based on an explicit memory structure and a feed forward neural network (FFNN) base model and used to drive long term financial investment decisions. We demonstrate that our approach improves accuracy in investment decision making while memory is addressed in an explainable way. Our approach introduces novel remember cues, consisting of empirically learned change points in the absolute error series of the FFNN. Memory recall is also novel, with contextual similarity assessed over time by sampling distances using dynamic time warping (DTW). We demonstrate the benefits of our approach by using it in an expected return forecasting task to drive investment decisions. In an investment simulation in a broad international equity universe between 2003-2017, our approach significantly outperforms FFNN base models. We also illustrate how CLA's memory addressing works in practice, using a worked example to demonstrate the explainability of our approach.
Memory modelling approaches using external memory structures requires an appropriate memory addressing mechanism (a way of storing and recalling a memory). Memory addressing is generally based on a similarity measure such as cosine similarity @cite_23 @cite_10 kernel weighting @cite_33 , use of linear models @cite_38 or instance-based similarities, many using K-nearest neighbours @cite_21 @cite_22 . However, these approaches are not obviously well suited to assessing the similarity of noisy and non-stationary, multivariate time-series. Euclidean distance offers a way to compare time-series but has a high sensitivity to the timing of data-points, something that has been addressed by dynamic time warping (DTW) @cite_18 @cite_5 . However, DTW requires normalized data @cite_27 and is also computationally expensive, although some mitigating measures have been developed (see @cite_8 ).
@cite_38 @cite_18 @cite_33 @cite_22 @cite_8 @cite_21 @cite_27 @cite_23 @cite_5 @cite_10
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Domain specific (dis-)similarity or proximity measures used e.g. in alignment algorithms of sequence data are popular to analyze complicated data objects and to cover domain specific data properties. Without an underlying vector space these data are given as pairwise (dis-)similarities only. The few available methods for such data focus widely on similarities and do not scale to large datasets. Kernel methods are very effective for metric similarity matrices, also at large scale, but costly transformations are necessary starting with non-metric (dis-) similarities. We propose an integrative combination of Nystrom approximation, potential double centering and eigenvalue correction to obtain valid kernel matrices at linear costs in the number of samples. By the proposed approach effective kernel approaches become accessible. Experiments with several larger (dis-)similarity datasets show that the proposed method achieves much better runtime performance than the standard strategy while keeping competitive model accuracy. The main contribution is an efficient and accurate technique, to convert (potentially non-metric) large scale dissimilarity matrices into approximated positive semi-definite kernel matrices at linear costs. HighlightsWe propose a linear time and memory efficient approach for converting low rank dissimilarity matrices to similarity matrices and vice versa.Our approach is applicable for proximities obtained from non-metric proximity measures (indefinite kernels, non-standard dissimilarity measures).The presented approach also comprises a generalization of Landmark MDS - the presented approach is in general more accurate and flexible than Landmark MDS.We provide an alternative derivation of the Nystrom approximation together with a convergence proof, also for indefinite kernels not given in the workshop paper as a core element of the approach. Dynamic time warping (DTW), which finds the minimum path by providing non-linear alignments between two time series, has been widely used as a distance measure for time series classification and clustering. However, DTW does not account for the relative importance regarding the phase difference between a reference point and a testing point. This may lead to misclassification especially in applications where the shape similarity between two sequences is a major consideration for an accurate recognition. Therefore, we propose a novel distance measure, called a weighted DTW (WDTW), which is a penalty-based DTW. Our approach penalizes points with higher phase difference between a reference point and a testing point in order to prevent minimum distance distortion caused by outliers. The rationale underlying the proposed distance measure is demonstrated with some illustrative examples. A new weight function, called the modified logistic weight function (MLWF), is also proposed to systematically assign weights as a function of the phase difference between a reference point and a testing point. By applying different weights to adjacent points, the proposed algorithm can enhance the detection of similarity between two time series. We show that some popular distance measures such as DTW and Euclidean distance are special cases of our proposed WDTW measure. We extend the proposed idea to other variants of DTW such as derivative dynamic time warping (DDTW) and propose the weighted version of DDTW. We have compared the performances of our proposed procedures with other popular approaches using public data sets available through the UCR Time Series Data Mining Archive for both time series classification and clustering problems. The experimental results indicate that the proposed approaches can achieve improved accuracy for time series classification and clustering problems. Abstract We propose a novel approach to solving the approximate k-nearest neighbor search problem in metric spaces. The search structure is based on a navigable small world graph with vertices corresponding to the stored elements, edges to links between them, and a variation of greedy algorithm for searching. The navigable small world is created simply by keeping old Delaunay graph approximation links produced at the start of construction. The approach is very universal, defined in terms of arbitrary metric spaces and at the same time it is very simple. The algorithm handles insertions in the same way as queries: by finding approximate neighbors for the inserted element and connecting it to them. Both search and insertion can be done in parallel requiring only local information from the structure. The structure can be made distributed. The accuracy of the probabilistic k-nearest neighbor queries can be adjusted without rebuilding the structure. The performed simulation for data in the Euclidean spaces shows that the structure built using the proposed algorithm has small world navigation properties with log 2 ( n ) insertion and search complexity at fixed accuracy, and performs well at high dimensionality. Simulation on a CoPHiR dataset revealed its high efficiency in case of large datasets (more than an order of magnitude less metric computations at fixed recall) compared to permutation indexes. Only 0.03 of the 10 million 208-dimensional vector dataset is needed to be evaluated to achieve 0.999 recall (virtually exact search). For recall 0.93 processing speed 2800 queries s can be achieved on a dual Intel X5675 Xenon server node with Java implementation. Existing billion-scale nearest neighbor search systems have mostly been compared on a single dataset of a billion of SIFT vectors, where systems based on the Inverted Multi-Index (IMI) have been performing very well, achieving state-of-the-art recall in several milliseconds. SIFT-like descriptors, however, are quickly being replaced with descriptors based on deep neural networks (DNN) that provide better performance for many computer vision tasks. In this paper, we introduce a new dataset of one billion descriptors based on DNNs and reveal the relative inefficiency of IMI-based indexing for such descriptors compared to SIFT data. We then introduce two new indexing structures, the Non-Orthogonal Inverted Multi-Index (NO-IMI) and the Generalized Non-Orthogonal Inverted Multi-Index (GNO-IMI). We show that due to additional flexibility, the new structures are able to adapt to DNN descriptor distribution in a better way. In particular, extensive experiments on the new dataset demonstrate that these data structures provide considerably better trade-off between the speed of retrieval and recall, given similar amount of memory, as compared to the standard Inverted Multi-Index.