We build a model of information cascades on feed-based networks, taking into account the finite attention span of users, message generation rates and message forwarding rates. Through simulation of this model, we study the effect of the extent of user attention on the probability that the cascade becomes viral. In analogy with a branching process, we estimate the branching factor associated with the cascade process for different attention spans and different forwarding probabilities, and demonstrate that beyond a certain attention span, cascades tend to become viral. The critical forwarding probabilities have an inverse relationship with the attention span. Next, we develop an analytical and numerical approach that allows us to determine the branching factor for given values of message generation rates, message forwarding rates and attention spans. The branching factors obtained using this analytical approach show good agreement with those obtained through simulations. Finally, we analyze an event-specific dataset obtained from Twitter, and show that estimated branching factors correlate well with the cascade-size distributions associated with distinct hashtags.
Using attributes of the underlying graph as explanatory variables is a common approach to studying information cascades on networks. Typically, these networks have either directional links, through follower and followee relationships or bi-directional links, through friendship statuses. @cite_0 consider a model to predict spikes of activity while considering various graph-theoretic characteristics of these networks. In contrast, our analysis is based on abstracting the cascade as a branching process, and we apply this approach to data generated from simulations on scale-free networks, and to data collected from Twitter.
@cite_0
2289705509 2117289809 2398526644 2257559988
Information cascades on social networks, such as retweet cascades on Twitter, have been often viewed as an epidemiological process, with the associated notion of virality to capture popular cascades that spread across the network. The notion of structural virality or average path length has been posited as a measure of global spread. In this paper, we argue that this simple epidemiological view, though analytically compelling, is not the entire story. We first show empirically that the classical SIR diffusion process on the Twitter graph, even with the best possible distribution of infectiousness parameter, cannot explain the nature of observed retweet cascades on Twitter. More specifically, rather than spreading further from the source as the SIR model would predict, many cascades that have several retweets from direct followers, die out quickly beyond that. We show that our empirical observations can be reconciled if we take interests of users and tweets into account. In particular, we consider a model where users have multi-dimensional interests, and connect to other users based on similarity in interests. Tweets are correspondingly labeled with interests, and propagate only in the subgraph of interested users via the SIR process. In this model, interests can be either narrow or broad, with the narrowest interest corresponding to a star graph on the interested users, with the root being the source of the tweet, and the broadest interest spanning the whole graph. We show that if tweets are generated using such a mix of interests, coupled with a varying infectiousness parameter, then we can qualitatively explain our observation that cascades die out much more quickly than is predicted by the SIR model. In the same breath, this model also explains how cascades can have large size, but low "structural virality" or average path length. Given a directed social graph and a set of past informa- tion cascades observed over the graph, we study the novel problem of detecting modules of the graph (communities of nodes), that also explain the cascades. Our key observation is that both information propagation and social ties forma- tion in a social network can be explained according to the same latent factor, which ultimately guide a user behavior within the network. Based on this observation, we propose the Community-Cascade Network (CCN) model, a stochas- tic mixture membership generative model that can fit, at the same time, the social graph and the observed set of cas- cades. Our model produces overlapping communities and for each node, its level of authority and passive interest in each community it belongs. For learning the parameters of the CCN model, we devise a Generalized Expectation Maximization procedure. We then apply our model to real-world social networks and in- formation cascades: the results witness the validity of the proposed CCN model, providing useful insights on its signif- icance for analyzing social behavior. Cascades are a popular construct to observe and study information propagation (or diffusion) in social media such as Twitter. and are defined using notions of influence, activity, or discourse commonality (e.g., hashtags). While these notions of cascades lead to different perspectives, primarily cascades are modeled as trees. We argue in this paper an alternative viewpoint of cascades as forests (of trees) which yields a richer vocabulary of features to understand information propagation. We develop a framework to extract forests and analyze their growth by studying their evolution at the tree-level and at the node-level. Moreover, we demonstrate how the structural features of forests, properties of the underlying network, and temporal features of the cascades provide significant predictive value in forecasting the future trajectory of both size and shape of forests. We observe that the forecasting performance increases with observations, that the temporal features are highly indicative of cascade size, and that the features extracted from the underlying connected graph best forecast the shape of the cascade. Cascades of information-sharing are a primary mechanism by which content reaches its audience on social media, and an active line of research has studied how such cascades, which form as content is reshared from person to person, develop and subside. In this paper, we perform a large-scale analysis of cascades on Facebook over significantly longer time scales, and find that a more complex picture emerges, in which many large cascades recur, exhibiting multiple bursts of popularity with periods of quiescence in between. We characterize recurrence by measuring the time elapsed between bursts, their overlap and proximity in the social network, and the diversity in the demographics of individuals participating in each peak. We discover that content virality, as revealed by its initial popularity, is a main driver of recurrence, with the availability of multiple copies of that content helping to spark new bursts. Still, beyond a certain popularity of content, the rate of recurrence drops as cascades start exhausting the population of interested individuals. We reproduce these observed patterns in a simple model of content recurrence simulated on a real social network. Using only characteristics of a cascade's initial burst, we demonstrate strong performance in predicting whether it will recur in the future.