Information theory has been very successful in obtaining performance limits for various problems such as communication, compression and hypothesis testing. Likewise, stochastic control theory provides a characterization of optimal policies for Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) using dynamic programming. However, finding optimal policies for these problems is computationally hard in general and thus, heuristic solutions are employed in practice. Deep learning can be used as a tool for designing better heuristics in such problems. In this paper, the problem of active sequential hypothesis testing is considered. The goal is to design a policy that can reliably infer the true hypothesis using as few samples as possible by adaptively selecting appropriate queries. This problem can be modeled as a POMDP and bounds on its value function exist in literature. However, optimal policies have not been identified and various heuristics are used. In this paper, two new heuristics are proposed: one based on deep reinforcement learning and another based on a KL-divergence zero-sum game. These heuristics are compared with state-of-the-art solutions and it is demonstrated using numerical experiments that the proposed heuristics can achieve significantly better performance than existing methods in some scenarios.
Active hypothesis testing was first formulated by Chernoff in @cite_9 inspired by Wald's Sequential Probability Ratio Test (SPRT) @cite_23 . Thereafter, this work has been extended in various ways. In @cite_10 , the problem of multihypothesis testing is considered in both fixed sample size and sequential settings. In @cite_5 , a Bayesian setting is examined with a random stopping time and is formulated as a POMDP. Upper and lower bounds on the optimal value function of this POMDP were derived and some heuristic policies were proposed. All these works provide heuristic policies that are asymptotically optimal. However, optimal policies for the non-asymptotic formulations are not known. Furthermore, most of the heuristics proposed in these works are almost open-loop and randomized policies. This motivates us to seek better heuristics.
@cite_5 @cite_9 @cite_10 @cite_23
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The problem of multiple hypothesis testing with observation control is considered in both fixed sample size and sequential settings. In the fixed sample size setting, for binary hypothesis testing, the optimal exponent for the maximal error probability corresponds to the maximum Chernoff information over the choice of controls, and a pure stationary open-loop control policy is asymptotically optimal within the larger class of all causal control policies. For multihypothesis testing in the fixed sample size setting, lower and upper bounds on the optimal error exponent are derived. It is also shown through an example with three hypotheses that the optimal causal control policy can be strictly better than the optimal open-loop control policy. In the sequential setting, a test based on earlier work by Chernoff for binary hypothesis testing, is shown to be first-order asymptotically optimal for multihypothesis testing in a strong sense, using the notion of decision making risk in place of the overall probability of error. Another test is also designed to meet hard risk constrains while retaining asymptotic optimality. The role of past information and randomization in designing optimal control policies is discussed. We propose a new approach to the problem of searching a space of policies for a Markov decision process (MDP) or a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP), given a model. Our approach is based on the following observation: Any (PO)MDP can be transformed into an "equivalent" POMDP in which all state transitions (given the current state and action) are deterministic. This reduces the general problem of policy search to one in which we need only consider POMDPs with deterministic transitions. We give a natural way of estimating the value of all policies in these transformed POMDPs. Policy search is then simply performed by searching for a policy with high estimated value. We also establish conditions under which our value estimates will be good, recovering theoretical results similar to those of Kearns, Mansour and Ng (1999), but with "sample complexity" bounds that have only a polynomial rather than exponential dependence on the horizon time. Our method applies to arbitrary POMDPs, including ones with infinite state and action spaces. We also present empirical results for our approach on a small discrete problem, and on a complex continuous state continuous action problem involving learning to ride a bicycle. The partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) provides a principled general framework for planning under uncertainty, but solving POMDPs optimally is computationally intractable, due to the "curse of dimensionality" and the "curse of history". To overcome these challenges, we introduce the Determinized Sparse Partially Observable Tree (DESPOT), a sparse approximation of the standard belief tree, for online planning under uncertainty. A DESPOT focuses online planning on a set of randomly sampled scenarios and compactly captures the "execution" of all policies under these scenarios. We show that the best policy obtained from a DESPOT is near-optimal, with a regret bound that depends on the representation size of the optimal policy. Leveraging this result, we give an anytime online planning algorithm, which searches a DESPOT for a policy that optimizes a regularized objective function. Regularization balances the estimated value of a policy under the sampled scenarios and the policy size, thus avoiding overfitting. The algorithm demonstrates strong experimental results, compared with some of the best online POMDP algorithms available. It has also been incorporated into an autonomous driving system for real-time vehicle control. The source code for the algorithm is available online. In this paper, we study sequential testing problems with overlapping hypotheses. We first focus on the simple problem of assessing if the mean µ of a Gaussian distribution is @math , both answers are considered to be correct. Then, we consider PAC-best arm identification in a bandit model: given K probability distributions on R with means @math , we derive the asymptotic complexity of identifying, with risk at most @math , an index @math such that @math . We provide non asymptotic bounds on the error of a parallel General Likelihood Ratio Test, which can also be used for more general testing problems. We further propose lower bound on the number of observation needed to identify a correct hypothesis. Those lower bounds rely on information-theoretic arguments, and specifically on two versions of a change of measure lemma (a high-level form, and a low-level form) whose relative merits are discussed.