How do blogs cite and influence each other? How do such links evolve? Does the popularity of old blog posts drop exponentially with time? These are some of the questions that we address in this work. Our goal is to build a model that generates realistic cascades, so that it can help us with link prediction and outlier detection. Blogs (weblogs) have become an important medium of information because of their timely publication, ease of use, and wide availability. In fact, they often make headlines, by discussing and discovering evidence about political events and facts. Often blogs link to one another, creating a publicly available record of how information and influence spreads through an underlying social network. Aggregating links from several blog posts creates a directed graph which we analyze to discover the patterns of information propagation in blogspace, and thereby understand the underlying social network. Not only are blogs interesting on their own merit, but our analysis also sheds light on how rumors, viruses, and ideas propagate over social and computer networks. Here we report some surprising findings of the blog linking and information propagation structure, after we analyzed one of the largest available datasets, with 45,000 blogs and 2.2 million blog-postings. Our analysis also sheds light on how rumors, viruses, and ideas propagate over social and computer networks. We also present a simple model that mimics the spread of information on the blogosphere, and produces information cascades very similar to those found in real life.
How often do people create blog posts and links? Extensive work has been published on patterns relating to human behavior, which often generates bursty traffic. Disk accesses, network traffic, web-server traffic all exhibit burstiness. in @cite_15 provide fast algorithms for modeling such burstiness. Burstiness is often related to self-similarity, which was studied in the context of World Wide Web traffic @cite_17 . @cite_22 demonstrate the bursty behavior in web page visits and corresponding response times.
@cite_15 @cite_22 @cite_17
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Network, Web, and disk I O traffic are usually bursty and self-similar and therefore cannot be modeled adequately with Poisson arrivals. However, we wish to model these types of traffic and generate realistic traces, because of obvious applications for disk scheduling, network management, and Web server design. Previous models (like fractional Brownian motion and FARIMA, etc.) tried to capture the 'burstiness'. However, the proposed models either require too many parameters to fit and or require prohibitively large (quadratic) time to generate large traces. We propose a simple, parsimonious method, the b-model, which solves both problems: it requires just one parameter, and can easily generate large traces. In addition, it has many more attractive properties: (a) with our proposed estimation algorithm, it requires just a single pass over the actual trace to estimate b. For example, a one-day-long disk trace in milliseconds contains about 86 Mb data points and requires about 3 minutes for model fitting and 5 minutes for generation. (b) The resulting synthetic traces are very realistic: our experiments on real disk and Web traces show that our synthetic traces match the real ones very well in terms of queuing behavior. How do blogs produce posts? What local, underlying mechanisms lead to the bursty temporal behaviors observed in blog networks? Earlier work analyzed network patterns of blogs and found that blog behavior is bursty and often follows power laws in both topological and temporal characteristics. However, no intuitive and realistic model has yet been introduced, that can lead to such patterns. This is exactly the focus of this work. We propose a generative model that uses simple and intuitive principles for each individual blog, and yet it is able to produce the temporal characteristics of the blogosphere together with global topological network patterns, like power-laws for degree distributions, for inter-posting times, and several more. Our model ZC uses a novel ‘zero-crossing’ approach based on a random walk, combined with other powerful ideas like exploration and exploitation. This makes it the first model to simultaneously model the topology and temporal dynamics of the blogosphere. We validate our model with experiments on a large collection of 45,000 blogs and 2.2 million posts. Demonstrates that Ethernet LAN traffic is statistically self-similar, that none of the commonly used traffic models is able to capture this fractal-like behavior, that such behavior has serious implications for the design, control, and analysis of high-speed, cell-based networks, and that aggregating streams of such traffic typically intensifies the self-similarity ("burstiness") instead of smoothing it. These conclusions are supported by a rigorous statistical analysis of hundreds of millions of high quality Ethernet traffic measurements collected between 1989 and 1992, coupled with a discussion of the underlying mathematical and statistical properties of self-similarity and their relationship with actual network behavior. The authors also present traffic models based on self-similar stochastic processes that provide simple, accurate, and realistic descriptions of traffic scenarios expected during B-ISDN deployment. > We investigate the communication sequences of millions of people through two different channels and analyse the fine grained temporal structure of correlated event trains induced by single individuals. By focusing on correlations between the heterogeneous dynamics and the topology of egocentric networks we find that the bursty trains usually evolve for pairs of individuals rather than for the ego and his her several neighbours, thus burstiness is a property of the links rather than of the nodes. We compare the directional balance of calls and short messages within bursty trains to the average on the actual link and show that for the trains of voice calls the imbalance is significantly enhanced, while for short messages the balance within the trains increases. These effects can be partly traced back to the technological constraints (for short messages) and partly to the human behavioural features (voice calls). We define a model that is able to reproduce the empirical results and may help us to understand better the mechanisms driving technology mediated human communication dynamics.