We apply empirical likelihood techniques to contextual bandit policy value estimation, confidence intervals, and learning. We propose a tighter estimator for off-policy evaluation with improved statistical performance over previous proposals. Coupled with this estimator is a confidence interval which also improves over previous proposals. We then harness these to improve learning from contextual bandit data. Each of these is empirically evaluated to show good performance against strong baselines in finite sample regimes.
Ideas from empirical likelihood have previously been applied to robust supervised learning @cite_14 . Our combination of confidence intervals with learning is a contextual bandit analogue to robust supervised learning. Regularizing counterfactual learning via lower-bound optimization has been previously considered, e.g., based upon empirical Bernstein bounds @cite_3 or divergence-based trust regions grounded in lower bounds from conservative policy iteration @cite_25 @cite_20 .
@cite_14 @cite_20 @cite_25 @cite_3
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We incorporate statistical confidence intervals in both the multi-armed bandit and the reinforcement learning problems. In the bandit problem we show that given n arms, it suffices to pull the arms a total of O((n e2)log(1 δ)) times to find an e-optimal arm with probability of at least 1-δ. This bound matches the lower bound of Mannor and Tsitsiklis (2004) up to constants. We also devise action elimination procedures in reinforcement learning algorithms. We describe a framework that is based on learning the confidence interval around the value function or the Q-function and eliminating actions that are not optimal (with high probability). We provide a model-based and a model-free variants of the elimination method. We further derive stopping conditions guaranteeing that the learned policy is approximately optimal with high probability. Simulations demonstrate a considerable speedup and added robustness over e-greedy Q-learning. With the goal to generate more scalable algorithms with higher efficiency and fewer open parameters, reinforcement learning (RL) has recently moved towards combining classical techniques from optimal control and dynamic programming with modern learning techniques from statistical estimation theory. In this vein, this paper suggests to use the framework of stochastic optimal control with path integrals to derive a novel approach to RL with parameterized policies. While solidly grounded in value function estimation and optimal control based on the stochastic Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equations, policy improvements can be transformed into an approximation problem of a path integral which has no open algorithmic parameters other than the exploration noise. The resulting algorithm can be conceived of as model-based, semi-model-based, or even model free, depending on how the learning problem is structured. The update equations have no danger of numerical instabilities as neither matrix inversions nor gradient learning rates are required. Our new algorithm demonstrates interesting similarities with previous RL research in the framework of probability matching and provides intuition why the slightly heuristically motivated probability matching approach can actually perform well. Empirical evaluations demonstrate significant performance improvements over gradient-based policy learning and scalability to high-dimensional control problems. Finally, a learning experiment on a simulated 12 degree-of-freedom robot dog illustrates the functionality of our algorithm in a complex robot learning scenario. We believe that Policy Improvement with Path Integrals (PI2) offers currently one of the most efficient, numerically robust, and easy to implement algorithms for RL based on trajectory roll-outs. The recently proposed semi-supervised learning methods exploit consistency loss between different predictions under random perturbations. Typically, a student model is trained to predict consistently with the targets generated by a noisy teacher. However, they ignore the fact that not all training data provide meaningful and reliable information in terms of consistency. For misclassified data, blindly minimizing the consistency loss around them can hinder learning. In this paper, we propose a novel certainty-driven consistency loss (CCL) to dynamically select data samples that have relatively low uncertainty. Specifically, we measure the variance or entropy of multiple predictions under random augmentations and dropout as an estimation of uncertainty. Then, we introduce two approaches, i.e. Filtering CCL and Temperature CCL to guide the student learn more meaningful and certain reliable targets, and hence improve the quality of the gradients backpropagated to the student. Experiments demonstrate the advantages of the proposed method over the state-of-the-art semi-supervised deep learning methods on three benchmark datasets: SVHN, CIFAR10, and CIFAR100. Our method also shows robustness to noisy labels. We develop a learning principle and an efficient algorithm for batch learning from logged bandit feedback. This learning setting is ubiquitous in online systems (e.g., ad placement, web search, recommendation), where an algorithm makes a prediction (e.g., ad ranking) for a given input (e.g., query) and observes bandit feedback (e.g., user clicks on presented ads). We first address the counterfactual nature of the learning problem through propensity scoring. Next, we prove generalization error bounds that account for the variance of the propensity-weighted empirical risk estimator. These constructive bounds give rise to the Counterfactual Risk Minimization (CRM) principle. We show how CRM can be used to derive a new learning method -- called Policy Optimizer for Exponential Models (POEM) -- for learning stochastic linear rules for structured output prediction. We present a decomposition of the POEM objective that enables efficient stochastic gradient optimization. POEM is evaluated on several multi-label classification problems showing substantially improved robustness and generalization performance compared to the state-of-the-art.