Time series forecasting is one of the challenging problems for humankind. Traditional forecasting methods using mean regression models have severe shortcomings in reflecting real-world fluctuations. While new probabilistic methods rush to rescue, they fight with technical difficulties like quantile crossing or selecting a prior distribution. To meld the different strengths of these fields while avoiding their weaknesses as well as to push the boundary of the state-of-the-art, we introduce ForGAN - one step ahead probabilistic forecasting with generative adversarial networks. ForGAN utilizes the power of the conditional generative adversarial network to learn the data generating distribution and compute probabilistic forecasts from it. We argue how to evaluate ForGAN in opposition to regression methods. To investigate probabilistic forecasting of ForGAN, we create a new dataset and demonstrate our method abilities on it. This dataset will be made publicly available for comparison. Furthermore, we test ForGAN on two publicly available datasets, namely Mackey-Glass dataset and Internet traffic dataset (A5M) where the impressive performance of ForGAN demonstrate its high capability in forecasting future values.
To the best of our knowledge, this is for the first time that a GAN is employed for the forecasting task. Our work is analogous to RCGAN @cite_100 , however, we pursue a different goal. As a result, we need to take a different approach to train and evaluate the performance of ForGAN.
@cite_100
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Traditional generative adversarial networks (GAN) and many of its variants are trained by minimizing the KL or JS-divergence loss that measures how close the generated data distribution is from the true data distribution. A recent advance called the WGAN based on Wasserstein distance can improve on the KL and JS-divergence based GANs, and alleviate the gradient vanishing, instability, and mode collapse issues that are common in the GAN training. In this work, we aim at improving on the WGAN by first generalizing its discriminator loss to a margin-based one, which leads to a better discriminator, and in turn a better generator, and then carrying out a progressive training paradigm involving multiple GANs to contribute to the maximum margin ranking loss so that the GAN at later stages will improve upon early stages. We call this method Gang of GANs (GoGAN). We have shown theoretically that the proposed GoGAN can reduce the gap between the true data distribution and the generated data distribution by at least half in an optimally trained WGAN. We have also proposed a new way of measuring GAN quality which is based on image completion tasks. We have evaluated our method on four visual datasets: CelebA, LSUN Bedroom, CIFAR-10, and 50K-SSFF, and have seen both visual and quantitative improvement over baseline WGAN. Despite being impactful on a variety of problems and applications, the generative adversarial nets (GANs) are remarkably difficult to train. This issue is formally analyzed by arjovsky2017towards , who also propose an alternative direction to avoid the caveats in the minmax two-player training of GANs. The corresponding algorithm, called Wasserstein GAN (WGAN), hinges on the 1-Lipschitz continuity of the discriminator. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to enforcing the Lipschitz continuity in the training procedure of WGANs. Our approach seamlessly connects WGAN with one of the recent semi-supervised learning methods. As a result, it gives rise to not only better photo-realistic samples than the previous methods but also state-of-the-art semi-supervised learning results. In particular, our approach gives rise to the inception score of more than 5.0 with only 1,000 CIFAR-10 images and is the first that exceeds the accuracy of 90 on the CIFAR-10 dataset using only 4,000 labeled images, to the best of our knowledge. Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) excel at creating realistic images with complex models for which maximum likelihood is infeasible. However, the convergence of GAN training has still not been proved. We propose a two time-scale update rule (TTUR) for training GANs with stochastic gradient descent on arbitrary GAN loss functions. TTUR has an individual learning rate for both the discriminator and the generator. Using the theory of stochastic approximation, we prove that the TTUR converges under mild assumptions to a stationary local Nash equilibrium. The convergence carries over to the popular Adam optimization, for which we prove that it follows the dynamics of a heavy ball with friction and thus prefers flat minima in the objective landscape. For the evaluation of the performance of GANs at image generation, we introduce the "Frechet Inception Distance" (FID) which captures the similarity of generated images to real ones better than the Inception Score. In experiments, TTUR improves learning for DCGANs and Improved Wasserstein GANs (WGAN-GP) outperforming conventional GAN training on CelebA, CIFAR-10, SVHN, LSUN Bedrooms, and the One Billion Word Benchmark. Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) excel at creating realistic images with complex models for which maximum likelihood is infeasible. However, the convergence of GAN training has still not been proved. We propose a two time-scale update rule (TTUR) for training GANs with stochastic gradient descent on arbitrary GAN loss functions. TTUR has an individual learning rate for both the discriminator and the generator. Using the theory of stochastic approximation, we prove that the TTUR converges under mild assumptions to a stationary local Nash equilibrium. The convergence carries over to the popular Adam optimization, for which we prove that it follows the dynamics of a heavy ball with friction and thus prefers flat minima in the objective landscape. For the evaluation of the performance of GANs at image generation, we introduce the Frechet Inception Distance'' (FID) which captures the similarity of generated images to real ones better than the Inception Score. In experiments, TTUR improves learning for DCGANs and Improved Wasserstein GANs (WGAN-GP) outperforming conventional GAN training on CelebA, CIFAR-10, SVHN, LSUN Bedrooms, and the One Billion Word Benchmark.