In this paper, we present a novel approach to predict crime in a geographic space from multiple data sources, in particular mobile phone and demographic data. The main contribution of the proposed approach lies in using aggregated and anonymized human behavioral data derived from mobile network activity to tackle the crime prediction problem. While previous research efforts have used either background historical knowledge or offenders' profiling, our findings support the hypothesis that aggregated human behavioral data captured from the mobile network infrastructure, in combination with basic demographic information, can be used to predict crime. In our experimental results with real crime data from London we obtain an accuracy of almost 70 when predicting whether a specific area in the city will be a crime hotspot or not. Moreover, we provide a discussion of the implications of our findings for data-driven crime analysis.
Researchers have devoted attention to the study of criminal behavior dynamics both from a people- and place- centric perspective. The people-centric perspective has mostly been used for individual or collective criminal profiling. Wang @cite_3 proposed , a machine learning approach to the problem of detecting specific patterns in crimes that are committed by the same offender or group of offenders. In @cite_45 , it is proposed a biased random walk model built upon empirical knowledge of criminal offenders behavior along with spatio-temporal crime information to take into account repeating patterns in historical crime data. Furthermore, Ratcliffe @cite_44 investigated the spatio-temporal constraints underlying offenders' criminal behavior.
@cite_44 @cite_45 @cite_3
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Motivated by empirical observations of spatio-temporal clusters of crime across a wide variety of urban settings, we present a model to study the emergence, dynamics, and steady-state properties of crime hotspots. We focus on a two-dimensional lattice model for residential burglary, where each site is characterized by a dynamic attractiveness variable, and where each criminal is represented as a random walker. The dynamics of criminals and of the attractiveness field are coupled to each other via specific biasing and feedback mechanisms. Depending on parameter choices, we observe and describe several regimes of aggregation, including hotspots of high criminal activity. On the basis of the discrete system, we also derive a continuum model; the two are in good quantitative agreement for large system sizes. By means of a linear stability analysis we are able to determine the parameter values that will lead to the creation of stable hotspots. We discuss our model and results in the context of established crim... Crime is classically âunpredictableâ. It is not necessarily random, but neither does it take place consistently in space or time. A better theoretical understanding is needed to facilitate practical crime prevention solutions that correspond to specific places and times. In this study, we discuss the preliminary results of a crime forecasting model developed in collaboration with the police department of a United States city in the Northeast. We first discuss our approach to architecting datasets from original crime records. The datasets contain aggregated counts of crime and crime-related events categorized by the police department. The location and time of these events is embedded in the data. Additional spatial and temporal features are harvested from the raw data set. Second, an ensemble of data mining classification techniques is employed to perform the crime forecasting. We analyze a variety of classification methods to determine which is best for predicting crime âhotspotsâ. We also investigate classification on increase or emergence. Last, we propose the best forecasting approach to achieve the most stable outcomes. The result of our research is a model that takes advantage of implicit and explicit spatial and temporal data to make reliable crime predictions. Environments such as schools, public parks and prisonsand others that contain a large number of people are typi-cally characterized by frequent and complex social interac-tions. In order to identify activities and behaviors in suchenvironments, it is necessary to understand the interactionsthat take place at a group level. To this end, this paper ad-dresses the problem of detecting and predicting suspiciousand in particular aggressive behaviors between groups ofindividuals such as gangs in prison yards. The work buildson a mature multi-camera multi-target person tracking sys-tem that operates in real-time and has the ability to han-dle crowded conditions. We consider two approaches forgrouping individuals: (i) agglomerative clustering favoredby the computer vision community, as well as (ii) decisiveclustering based on the concept of modularity, which is fa-vored by the social network analysis community. We showthe utility of such grouping analysis towards the detectionof group activities of interest. The presented algorithm isintegrated with a system operating in real-time to success-fully detect highly realistic aggressive behaviors enacted bycorrectional officers in a simulated prison environment. Wepresent results from these enactments that demonstrate theefficacy of our approach. Predicting human behavior from a small amount of training examples is a challenging machine learning problem. In this thesis, we introduce the principle of maximum causal entropy, a general technique for applying information theory to decision-theoretic, game-theoretic, and control settings where relevant information is sequentially revealed over time. This approach guarantees decision-theoretic performance by matching purposeful measures of behavior (Abbeel & Ng, 2004), and or enforces game-theoretic rationality constraints (Aumann, 1974), while otherwise being as uncertain as possible, which minimizes worst-case predictive log-loss (Grunwald & Dawid, 2003). We derive probabilistic models for decision, control, and multi-player game settings using this approach. We then develop corresponding algorithms for efficient inference that include relaxations of the Bellman equation (Bellman, 1957), and simple learning algorithms based on convex optimization. We apply the models and algorithms to a number of behavior prediction tasks. Specifically, we present empirical evaluations of the approach in the domains of vehicle route preference modeling using over 100,000 miles of collected taxi driving data, pedestrian motion modeling from weeks of indoor movement data, and robust prediction of game play in stochastic multi-player games.