Many data mining approaches aim at modelling and predicting human behaviour. An important quantity of interest is the quality of model-based predictions, e.g. for finding a competition winner with best prediction performance. In real life, human beings meet their decisions with considerable uncertainty. Its assessment and resulting implications for statistically evident evaluation of predictive models are in the main focus of this contribution. We identify relevant sources of uncertainty as well as the limited ability of its accurate measurement, propose an uncertainty-aware methodology for more evident evaluations of data mining approaches, and discuss its implications for existing quality assessment strategies. Specifically, our approach switches from common point-paradigm to more appropriate distribution-paradigm. This is exemplified in the context of recommender systems and their established metrics of prediction quality. The discussion is substantiated by comprehensive experiments with real users, large-scale simulations, and discussion of prior evaluation campaigns (i.a. Netflix Prize) in the light of human uncertainty aspects.
In the context of this paper, we exemplify our approach by scenarios from the field of recommender systems as summarised in @cite_4 and focus specifically on comparative evaluation metrics. Recommender systems were initially based on demographic, content-based and collaborative filtering. An overview of these techniques are given in @cite_19 . As collaborative filtering recently turned out to be one of the most successful techniques, they rapidly got into the centre of further research. A roadmap to collaborative filtering as well as a profound discussion on its predictive performance is provided by @cite_3 .
@cite_19 @cite_4 @cite_3
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Recommender systems have become an important research area because they have been a kind of Web intelligence techniques to search through the enormous volume of information available on the Internet. Collaborative filtering and content-based methods are two most commonly used approaches in most recommender systems. Although each of them has both advantages and disadvantages in providing high quality recommendations, a hybrid recommendation mechanism incorporating components from both of the methods would yield satisfactory results in many situations. In this paper, we present an elegant and effective framework for combining content and collaboration. Our approach uses a content-based predictor to enhance existing user data and item data, and then provides personalized suggestions through user-based collaborative filtering and item-based collaborative filtering. The proposed system clusters on content-based approach and collaborative approach then it contribute to the improvement of prediction quality of a hybrid recommender system. Collaborative filtering or recommender systems use a database about user preferences to predict additional topics or products a new user might like. In this paper we describe several algorithms designed for this task, including techniques based on correlation coefficients, vector-based similarity calculations, and statistical Bayesian methods. We compare the predictive accuracy of the various methods in a set of representative problem domains. We use two basic classes of evaluation metrics. The first characterizes accuracy over a set of individual predictions in terms of average absolute deviation. The second estimates the utility of a ranked list of suggested items. This metric uses an estimate of the probability that a user will see a recommendation in an ordered list. Experiments were run for datasets associated with 3 application areas, 4 experimental protocols, and the 2 evaluation metr rics for the various algorithms. Results indicate that for a wide range of conditions, Bayesian networks with decision trees at each node and correlation methods outperform Bayesian-clustering and vector-similarity methods. Between correlation and Bayesian networks, the preferred method depends on the nature of the dataset, nature of the application (ranked versus one-by-one presentation), and the availability of votes with which to make predictions. Other considerations include the size of database, speed of predictions, and learning time. The collaborative filtering approach to recommender systems predicts user preferences for products or services by learning past user-item relationships. In this work, we propose novel algorithms for predicting user ratings of items by integrating complementary models that focus on patterns at different scales. At a local scale, we use a neighborhood-based technique that infers ratings from observed ratings by similar users or of similar items. Unlike previous local approaches, our method is based on a formal model that accounts for interactions within the neighborhood, leading to improved estimation quality. At a higher, regional, scale, we use SVD-like matrix factorization for recovering the major structural patterns in the user-item rating matrix. Unlike previous approaches that require imputations in order to fill in the unknown matrix entries, our new iterative algorithm avoids imputation. Because the models involve estimation of millions, or even billions, of parameters, shrinkage of estimated values to account for sampling variability proves crucial to prevent overfitting. Both the local and the regional approaches, and in particular their combination through a unifying model, compare favorably with other approaches and deliver substantially better results than the commercial Netflix Cinematch recommender system on a large publicly available data set. Recommender systems have been evaluated in many, often incomparable, ways. In this article, we review the key decisions in evaluating collaborative filtering recommender systems: the user tasks being evaluated, the types of analysis and datasets being used, the ways in which prediction quality is measured, the evaluation of prediction attributes other than quality, and the user-based evaluation of the system as a whole. In addition to reviewing the evaluation strategies used by prior researchers, we present empirical results from the analysis of various accuracy metrics on one content domain where all the tested metrics collapsed roughly into three equivalence classes. Metrics within each equivalency class were strongly correlated, while metrics from different equivalency classes were uncorrelated.