Accurate prediction of others' trajectories is essential for autonomous driving. Trajectory prediction is challenging because it requires reasoning about agents' past movements, social interactions among varying numbers and kinds of agents, constraints from the scene context, and the stochasticity of human behavior. Our approach models these interactions and constraints jointly within a novel Multi-Agent Tensor Fusion (MATF) network. Specifically, the model encodes multiple agents' past trajectories and the scene context into a Multi-Agent Tensor, then applies convolutional fusion to capture multiagent interactions while retaining the spatial structure of agents and the scene context. The model decodes recurrently to multiple agents' future trajectories, using adversarial loss to learn stochastic predictions. Experiments on both highway driving and pedestrian crowd datasets show that the model achieves state-of-the-art prediction accuracy.
Many data-driven approaches learn to predict deterministic future trajectories of agents by minimizing reconstruction loss @cite_17 @cite_6 . However, human behavior is inherently stochastic. Recent approaches address this by predicting a distribution over future trajectories by combining Variational Auto-Encoders @cite_28 and Inverse Optimal Control @cite_36 , or with conditional Generative Adversarial Nets @cite_19 @cite_40 . GAIL-GRU @cite_23 uses generative adversarial imitation learning @cite_18 to learn a stochastic policy that reproduces human expert driving behavior. R2P2 @cite_37 proposes a novel cost function to encourage enhancement in both precision and diversity of the learned predictive distribution. Other approaches predict a set of possible trajectories, instead of a single deterministic trajectory, by conditioning on possible maneuver classes @cite_29 @cite_4 .
@cite_18 @cite_37 @cite_4 @cite_28 @cite_36 @cite_29 @cite_6 @cite_19 @cite_40 @cite_23 @cite_17
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Given a visual history, multiple future outcomes for a video scene are equally probable, in other words, the distribution of future outcomes has multiple modes. Multimodality is notoriously hard to handle by standard regressors or classifiers: the former regress to the mean and the latter discretize a continuous high dimensional output space. In this work, we present stochastic neural network architectures that handle such multimodality through stochasticity: future trajectories of objects, body joints or frames are represented as deep, non-linear transformations of random (as opposed to deterministic) variables. Such random variables are sampled from simple Gaussian distributions whose means and variances are parametrized by the output of convolutional encoders over the visual history. We introduce novel convolutional architectures for predicting future body joint trajectories that outperform fully connected alternatives DBLP:journals corr WalkerDGH16 . We introduce stochastic spatial transformers through optical flow warping for predicting future frames, which outperform their deterministic equivalents DBLP:journals corr PatrauceanHC15 . Training stochastic networks involves an intractable marginalization over stochastic variables. We compare various training schemes that handle such marginalization through a) straightforward sampling from the prior, b) conditional variational autoencoders NIPS2015_5775,DBLP:journals corr WalkerDGH16 , and, c) a proposed K-best-sample loss that penalizes the best prediction under a fixed "prediction budget". We show experimental results on object trajectory prediction, human body joint trajectory prediction and video prediction under varying future uncertainty, validating quantitatively and qualitatively our architectural choices and training schemes. Deep generative models have recently shown great promise in imitation learning for motor control. Given enough data, even supervised approaches can do one-shot imitation learning; however, they are vulnerable to cascading failures when the agent trajectory diverges from the demonstrations. Compared to purely supervised methods, Generative Adversarial Imitation Learning (GAIL) can learn more robust controllers from fewer demonstrations, but is inherently mode-seeking and more difficult to train. In this paper, we show how to combine the favourable aspects of these two approaches. The base of our model is a new type of variational autoencoder on demonstration trajectories that learns semantic policy embeddings. We show that these embeddings can be learned on a 9 DoF Jaco robot arm in reaching tasks, and then smoothly interpolated with a resulting smooth interpolation of reaching behavior. Leveraging these policy representations, we develop a new version of GAIL that (1) is much more robust than the purely-supervised controller, especially with few demonstrations, and (2) avoids mode collapse, capturing many diverse behaviors when GAIL on its own does not. We demonstrate our approach on learning diverse gaits from demonstration on a 2D biped and a 62 DoF 3D humanoid in the MuJoCo physics environment. As a new way of training generative models, Generative Adversarial Net (GAN) that uses a discriminative model to guide the training of the generative model has enjoyed considerable success in generating real-valued data. However, it has limitations when the goal is for generating sequences of discrete tokens. A major reason lies in that the discrete outputs from the generative model make it difficult to pass the gradient update from the discriminative model to the generative model. Also, the discriminative model can only assess a complete sequence, while for a partially generated sequence, it is nontrivial to balance its current score and the future one once the entire sequence has been generated. In this paper, we propose a sequence generation framework, called SeqGAN, to solve the problems. Modeling the data generator as a stochastic policy in reinforcement learning (RL), SeqGAN bypasses the generator differentiation problem by directly performing gradient policy update. The RL reward signal comes from the GAN discriminator judged on a complete sequence, and is passed back to the intermediate state-action steps using Monte Carlo search. Extensive experiments on synthetic data and real-world tasks demonstrate significant improvements over strong baselines. As a new way of training generative models, Generative Adversarial Nets (GAN) that uses a discriminative model to guide the training of the generative model has enjoyed considerable success in generating real-valued data. However, it has limitations when the goal is for generating sequences of discrete tokens. A major reason lies in that the discrete outputs from the generative model make it difficult to pass the gradient update from the discriminative model to the generative model. Also, the discriminative model can only assess a complete sequence, while for a partially generated sequence, it is non-trivial to balance its current score and the future one once the entire sequence has been generated. In this paper, we propose a sequence generation framework, called SeqGAN, to solve the problems. Modeling the data generator as a stochastic policy in reinforcement learning (RL), SeqGAN bypasses the generator differentiation problem by directly performing gradient policy update. The RL reward signal comes from the GAN discriminator judged on a complete sequence, and is passed back to the intermediate state-action steps using Monte Carlo search. Extensive experiments on synthetic data and real-world tasks demonstrate significant improvements over strong baselines.