The Shapley value has become a popular method to attribute the prediction of a machine-learning model on an input to its base features. The Shapley value [1] is known to be the unique method that satisfies certain desirable properties, and this motivates its use. Unfortunately, despite this uniqueness result, there are a multiplicity of Shapley values used in explaining a model's prediction. This is because there are many ways to apply the Shapley value that differ in how they reference the model, the training data, and the explanation context. In this paper, we study an approach that applies the Shapley value to conditional expectations (CES) of sets of features (cf. [2]) that subsumes several prior approaches within a common framework. We provide the first algorithm for the general version of CES. We show that CES can result in counterintuitive attributions in theory and in practice (we study a diabetes prediction task); for instance, CES can assign non-zero attributions to features that are not referenced by the model. In contrast, we show that an approach called the Baseline Shapley (BS) does not exhibit counterintuitive attributions; we support this claim with a uniqueness (axiomatic) result. We show that BS is a special case of CES, and CES with an independent feature distribution coincides with a randomized version of BS. Thus, BS fits into the CES framework, but does not suffer from many of CES's deficiencies.
The first and second approaches solve a different problem (of feature importance across all the training data), and we will ignore them for the most part. Notice that the rest are solving the attribution problem, @cite_13 unifies several of these methods under a common framework based on conditional expectations. and they all apply the Shapley value, but they differ in how they switch a feature off', and consequently give different results. In this paper, we attempt to pick between these methods using the lens of axiomatization.
@cite_13
2662684858 2120708938 2153929442 2137901802
Note that a newer expanded version of this paper is now available at: arXiv:1802.03888 It is critical in many applications to understand what features are important for a model, and why individual predictions were made. For tree ensemble methods these questions are usually answered by attributing importance values to input features, either globally or for a single prediction. Here we show that current feature attribution methods are inconsistent, which means changing the model to rely more on a given feature can actually decrease the importance assigned to that feature. To address this problem we develop fast exact solutions for SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanation) values, which were recently shown to be the unique additive feature attribution method based on conditional expectations that is both consistent and locally accurate. We integrate these improvements into the latest version of XGBoost, demonstrate the inconsistencies of current methods, and show how using SHAP values results in significantly improved supervised clustering performance. Feature importance values are a key part of understanding widely used models such as gradient boosting trees and random forests, so improvements to them have broad practical implications. The most basic assumption used in statistical learning theory is that training data and test data are drawn from the same underlying distribution. Unfortunately, in many applications, the "in-domain" test data is drawn from a distribution that is related, but not identical, to the "out-of-domain" distribution of the training data. We consider the common case in which labeled out-of-domain data is plentiful, but labeled in-domain data is scarce. We introduce a statistical formulation of this problem in terms of a simple mixture model and present an instantiation of this framework to maximum entropy classifiers and their linear chain counterparts. We present efficient inference algorithms for this special case based on the technique of conditional expectation maximization. Our experimental results show that our approach leads to improved performance on three real world tasks on four different data sets from the natural language processing domain. Let X denote the feature and Y the target. We consider domain adaptation under three possible scenarios: (1) the marginal PY changes, while the conditional PX Y stays the same (target shift), (2) the marginal PY is fixed, while the conditional PX Y changes with certain constraints (conditional shift), and (3) the marginal PY changes, and the conditional PX Y changes with constraints (generalized target shift). Using background knowledge, causal interpretations allow us to determine the correct situation for a problem at hand. We exploit importance reweighting or sample transformation to find the learning machine that works well on test data, and propose to estimate the weights or transformations by reweighting or transforming training data to reproduce the covariate distribution on the test domain. Thanks to kernel embedding of conditional as well as marginal distributions, the proposed approaches avoid distribution estimation, and are applicable for high-dimensional problems. Numerical evaluations on synthetic and real-world data sets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework. Discriminative learning when training and test data belong to different distributions is a challenging and complex task. Often times we have very few or no labeled data from the test or target distribution but may have plenty of labeled data from multiple related sources with different distributions. The difference in distributions may be both in marginal and conditional probabilities. Most of the existing domain adaptation work focuses on the marginal probability distribution difference between the domains, assuming that the conditional probabilities are similar. However in many real world applications, conditional probability distribution differences are as commonplace as marginal probability differences. In this paper we propose a two-stage domain adaptation methodology which combines weighted data from multiple sources based on marginal probability differences (first stage) as well as conditional probability differences (second stage), with the target domain data. The weights for minimizing the marginal probability differences are estimated independently, while the weights for minimizing conditional probability differences are computed simultaneously by exploiting the potential interaction among multiple sources. We also provide a theoretical analysis on the generalization performance of the proposed multi-source domain adaptation formulation using the weighted Rademacher complexity measure. Empirical comparisons with existing state-of-the-art domain adaptation methods using three real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.