In trick-taking card games, a two-step process of state sampling and evaluation is widely used to approximate move values. While the evaluation component is vital, the accuracy of move value estimates is also fundamentally linked to how well the sampling distribution corresponds the true distribution. Despite this, recent work in trick-taking card game AI has mainly focused on improving evaluation algorithms with limited work on improving sampling. In this paper, we focus on the effect of sampling on the strength of a player and propose a novel method of sampling more realistic states given move history. In particular, we use predictions about locations of individual cards made by a deep neural network --- trained on data from human gameplay - in order to sample likely worlds for evaluation. This technique, used in conjunction with Perfect Information Monte Carlo (PIMC) search, provides a substantial increase in cardplay strength in the popular trick-taking card game of Skat.
Kermit @cite_11 @cite_12 uses a table-based procedure that takes opponent bids or declarations into account in order to infer the likelihood of states within an information set. Unlike our work, Kermit does not use the sequence of actions during the cardplay phase for further inference --- only marginalizing over its own private cards and those that have already been played. Ginsberg's bridge-playing GIB @cite_5 was the first successful application of PIMC in a trick-taking card game. GIB also appears to perform some state inference in that it samples a set @math of deals consistent with both the bidding and play'', but details regarding the inference are absent from the paper.
@cite_5 @cite_12 @cite_11
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Perfect information Monte Carlo (PIMC) search is the method of choice for constructing strong Al systems for trick-taking card games. PIMC search evaluates moves in imperfect information games by repeatedly sampling worlds based on state inference and estimating move values by solving the corresponding perfect information scenarios. PIMC search performs well in trick-taking card games despite the fact that it suffers from the strategy fusion problem, whereby the game's information set structure is ignored because moves are evaluated opportunistically in each world. In this paper we describe imperfect information Monte Carlo (IIMC) search, which aims at mitigating this problem by basing move evaluation on more realistic playout sequences rather than perfect information move values. We show that RecPIMC - a recursive IIMC search variant based on perfect information evaluation - performs considerably better than PIMC search in a large class of synthetic imperfect information games and the popular card game of Skat, for which PIMC search is the state-of-the-art cardplay algorithm. This paper investigates the problems arising in the construction of a program to play the game of contract bridge. These problems include both the difficulty of solving the game's perfect information variant, and techniques needed to address the fact that bridge is not, in fact, a perfect information game. GIB, the program being described, involves five separate technical advances: partition search, the practical application of Monte Carlo techniques to realistic problems, a focus on achievable sets to solve problems inherent in the Monte Carlo approach, an extension of alpha-beta pruning from total orders to arbitrary distributive lattices, and the use of squeaky wheel optimization to find approximately optimal solutions to cardplay problems. GIB is currently believed to be of approximately expert caliber, and is currently the strongest computer bridge program in the world. Tasks such as record linkage and multi-target tracking, which involve reconstructing the set of objects that underlie some observed data, are particularly challenging for probabilistic inference. Recent work has achieved efficient and accurate inference on such problems using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques with customized proposal distributions. Currently, implementing such a system requires coding MCMC state representations and acceptance probability calculations that are specific to a particular application. An alternative approach, which we pursue in this paper, is to use a general-purpose probabilistic modeling language (such as BLOG) and a generic Metropolis-Hastings MCMC algorithm that supports user-supplied proposal distributions. Our algorithm gains flexibility by using MCMC states that are only partial descriptions of possible worlds; we provide conditions under which MCMC over partial worlds yields correct answers to queries. We also show how to use a context-specific Bayes net to identify the factors in the acceptance probability that need to be computed for a given proposed move. Experimental results on a citation matching task show that our general-purpose MCMC engine compares favorably with an application-specific system. In this paper, we examine the use of Monte Carlo tree search (MCTS) for a variant of one of the most popular and profitable games in the world: the card game Magic: The Gathering (M:TG). The game tree for M:TG has a range of distinctive features, which we discuss here; it has incomplete information through the opponent's hidden cards and randomness through card drawing from a shuffled deck. We investigate a wide range of approaches that use determinization, where all hidden and random information is assumed known to all players, alongside MCTS. We consider a number of variations to the rollout strategy using a range of levels of sophistication and expert knowledge, and decaying reward to encourage play urgency. We examine the effect of utilizing various pruning strategies in order to increase the information gained from each determinization, alongside methods that increase the relevance of random choices. Additionally, we deconstruct the move generation procedure into a binary yes no decision tree and apply MCTS to this finer grained decision process. We compare our modifications to a basic MCTS approach for M:TG using fixed decks, and show that significant improvements in playing strength can be obtained.