We consider the problem of adaptively placing sensors along an interval to detect stochastically-generated events. We present a new formulation of the problem as a continuum-armed bandit problem with feedback in the form of partial observations of realisations of an inhomogeneous Poisson process. We design a solution method by combining Thompson sampling with nonparametric inference via increasingly granular Bayesian histograms and derive an @math bound on the Bayesian regret in @math rounds. This is coupled with the design of an efficent optimisation approach to select actions in polynomial time. In simulations we demonstrate our approach to have substantially lower and less variable regret than competitor algorithms.
The continuum-armed bandit (CAB) model @cite_13 is an infinitely-many armed extension of the classic multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem. There are two main classes of algorithm for CAB problems: discretisation-based approaches which select from a discrete subset of the continuous action space at each iteration, and approaches which make decisions directly on the whole action space. Our proposed method belongs to the former class. Early discretisation-based approaches focused on fixed discretisation @cite_8 @cite_0 , with more recent approaches typically using adaptive discretisations such as a zooming'' approach @cite_17 or a tree-based structure @cite_1 @cite_5 @cite_15 to manage the exploration. Authors who handle the full continuous action space typically use Gaussian process models to capture uncertainty in the unknown continuous function and balance exploration-exploitation in light of this @cite_2 @cite_11 @cite_4 . As mentioned in Section , our problem can map into a CAB, but since our information structure is more complex, our action space has dimension greater than 1, and the stochastic components have heavier tails than usual, standard algorithms and results do not apply.
@cite_11 @cite_4 @cite_8 @cite_1 @cite_0 @cite_2 @cite_5 @cite_15 @cite_13 @cite_17
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The multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem features the classical tradeoff between exploration and exploitation. The input specifies several stochastic arms which evolve with each pull, and the goal is to maximize the expected reward after a fixed budget of pulls. The celebrated work of , surveyed in [8], presumes a condition on the arms called the martingale assumption. In [9], A. obtained an LP-based 1 48-approximation for the problem with the martingale assumption removed. We improve the algorithm to a 4 27-approximation, with simpler analysis. Our algorithm also generalizes to the case of MAB superprocesses with (stochastic) multi-period actions. This generalization captures the framework introduced by Guha and Munagala in [11], and yields new results for their budgeted learning problems. Also, we obtain a (1 2 -- e)-approximation for the variant of MAB where preemption (playing an arm, switching to another arm, then coming back to the first arm) is not allowed. This contains the stochastic knapsack problem of Dean, Goemans, and Vondrak in [6] with correlated rewards, where we are given a knapsack of fixed size, and a set of jobs each with a joint distribution for its size and reward. The actual size and reward of a job can only be discovered in real-time as it is being scheduled, and the objective is to maximize expected reward before the knapsack size is exhausted. Our (1 2 -- e)-approximation improves the 1 16 and 1 8 approximations in [9] for correlated stochastic knapsack with cancellation and no cancellation, respectively, providing to our knowledge the first tight algorithm for these problems that matches the integrality gap of 2. We sample probabilities from an exponential-sized dynamic programming solution, whose existence is guaranteed by an LP projection argument. We hope this technique can also be applied to other dynamic programming problems which can be projected down onto a small LP. The restless bandit problem is one of the most well-studied generalizations of the celebrated stochastic multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem in decision theory. In its ultimate generality, the restless bandit problem is known to be PSPACE-Hard to approximate to any nontrivial factor, and little progress has been made on this problem despite its significance in modeling activity allocation under uncertainty. In this article, we consider the Feedback MAB problem, where the reward obtained by playing each of n independent arms varies according to an underlying on off Markov process whose exact state is only revealed when the arm is played. The goal is to design a policy for playing the arms in order to maximize the infinite horizon time average expected reward. This problem is also an instance of a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP), and is widely studied in wireless scheduling and unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) routing. Unlike the stochastic MAB problem, the Feedback MAB problem does not admit to greedy index-based optimal policies. We develop a novel duality-based algorithmic technique that yields a surprisingly simple and intuitive (2+e)-approximate greedy policy to this problem. We show that both in terms of approximation factor and computational efficiency, our policy is closely related to the Whittle index, which is widely used for its simplicity and efficiency of computation. Subsequently we define a multi-state generalization, that we term Monotone bandits, which remains subclass of the restless bandit problem. We show that our policy remains a 2-approximation in this setting, and further, our technique is robust enough to incorporate various side-constraints such as blocking plays, switching costs, and even models where determining the state of an arm is a separate operation from playing it. Our technique is also of independent interest for other restless bandit problems, and we provide an example in nonpreemptive machine replenishment. Interestingly, in this case, our policy provides a constant factor guarantee, whereas the Whittle index is provably polynomially worse. By presenting the first O(1) approximations for nontrivial instances of restless bandits as well as of POMDPs, our work initiates the study of approximation algorithms in both these contexts. We introduce the budget-limited multi-armed bandit (MAB), which captures situations where a learner's actions are costly and constrained by a fixed budget that is incommensurable with the rewards earned from the bandit machine, and then describe a first algorithm for solving it. Since the learner has a budget, the problem's duration is finite. Consequently an optimal exploitation policy is not to pull the optimal arm repeatedly, but to pull the combination of arms that maximises the agent's total reward within the budget. As such, the rewards for all arms must be estimated, because any of them may appear in the optimal combination. This difference from existing MABs means that new approaches to maximising the total reward are required. To this end, we propose an ∊-first algorithm, in which the first ∊ of the budget is used solely to learn the arms' rewards (exploration), while the remaining 1 - ∊ is used to maximise the received reward based on those estimates (exploitation). We derive bounds on the algorithm's loss for generic and uniform exploration methods, and compare its performance with traditional MAB algorithms under various distributions of rewards and costs, showing that it outperforms the others by up to 50 . In the classic Bayesian restless multi-armed bandit (RMAB) problem, there are N arms, with rewards on all arms evolving at each time as Markov chains with known parameters. A player seeks to activate K ≥ 1 arms at each time in order to maximize the expected total reward obtained over multiple plays. RMAB is a challenging problem that is known to be PSPACE-hard in general. We consider in this work the even harder non-Bayesian RMAB, in which the parameters of the Markov chain are assumed to be unknown a priori. We develop an original approach to this problem that is applicable when the corresponding Bayesian problem has the structure that, depending on the known parameter values, the optimal solution is one of a prescribed finite set of policies. In such settings, we propose to learn the optimal policy for the non-Bayesian RMAB by employing a suitable meta-policy which treats each policy from this finite set as an arm in a different non-Bayesian multi-armed bandit problem for which a single-arm selection policy is optimal. We demonstrate this approach by developing a novel sensing policy for opportunistic spectrum access over unknown dynamic channels. We prove that our policy achieves near-logarithmic regret (the difference in expected reward compared to a model-aware genie), which leads to the same average reward that can be achieved by the optimal policy under a known model. This is the first such result in the literature for a non-Bayesian RMAB.