Information overload has become an ubiquitous problem in modern society. Social media users and microbloggers receive an endless flow of information, often at a rate far higher than their cognitive abilities to process the information. In this paper, we conduct a large scale quantitative study of information overload and evaluate its impact on information dissemination in the Twitter social media site. We model social media users as information processing systems that queue incoming information according to some policies, process information from the queue at some unknown rates and decide to forward some of the incoming information to other users. We show how timestamped data about tweets received and forwarded by users can be used to uncover key properties of their queueing policies and estimate their information processing rates and limits. Such an understanding of users' information processing behaviors allows us to infer whether and to what extent users suffer from information overload. Our analysis provides empirical evidence of information processing limits for social media users and the prevalence of information overloading. The most active and popular social media users are often the ones that are overloaded. Moreover, we find that the rate at which users receive information impacts their processing behavior, including how they prioritize information from different sources, how much information they process, and how quickly they process information. Finally, the susceptibility of a social media user to social contagions depends crucially on the rate at which she receives information. An exposure to a piece of information, be it an idea, a convention or a product, is much less effective for users that receive information at higher rates, meaning they need more exposures to adopt a particular contagion.
Last, very recently, there have been attempts to analyze and model information propagation assuming competition and cooperation between contagions @cite_1 @cite_16 @cite_2 . However, this line of work considers only interactions between pairs of contagions @cite_16 or present theoretical models without experimental validation @cite_1 . In contrast, our work investigates the effect - that observing a great number of contagions simultaneously propagating, not necessarily informative or in -te -res -ting, has on the ability of a person to process and forward information. We believe this is a key point for understanding information propagation in the age of information overload.
@cite_16 @cite_1 @cite_2
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In networks, contagions such as information, purchasing behaviors, and diseases, spread and diffuse from node to node over the edges of the network. Moreover, in real-world scenarios multiple contagions spread through the network simultaneously. These contagions not only propagate at the same time but they also interact and compete with each other as they spread over the network. While traditional empirical studies and models of diffusion consider individual contagions as independent and thus spreading in isolation, we study how different contagions interact with each other as they spread through the network. We develop a statistical model that allows for competition as well as cooperation of different contagions in information diffusion. Competing contagions decrease each other's probability of spreading, while cooperating contagions help each other in being adopted throughout the network. We evaluate our model on 18,000 contagions simultaneously spreading through the Twitter network. Our model learns how different contagions interact with each other and then uses these interactions to more accurately predict the diffusion of a contagion through the network. Moreover, the model also provides a compelling hypothesis for the principles that govern content interaction in information diffusion. Most importantly, we find very strong effects of interactions between contagions. Interactions cause a relative change in the spreading probability of a contagion by em 71 on the average. For the study of information propagation, one fundamental problem is uncovering universal laws governing the dynamics of information propagation. This problem, from the microscopic perspective, is formulated as estimating the propagation probability that a piece of information propagates from one individual to another. Such a propagation probability generally depends on two major classes of factors: the intrinsic attractiveness of information and the interactions between individuals. Despite the fact that the temporal effect of attractiveness is widely studied, temporal laws underlying individual interactions remain unclear, causing inaccurate prediction of information propagation on evolving social networks. In this report, we empirically study the dynamics of information propagation, using the dataset from a population-scale social media website. We discover a temporal scaling in information propagation: the probability a message propagates between two individuals decays with the length of time latency since their latest interaction, obeying a power-law rule. Leveraging the scaling law, we further propose a temporal model to estimate future propagation probabilities between individuals, reducing the error rate of information propagation prediction from 6.7 to 2.6 and improving viral marketing with 9.7 incremental customers. It is commonly believed that information spreads between individuals like a pathogen, with each exposure by an informed friend potentially resulting in a naive individual becoming infected. However, empirical studies of social media suggest that individual response to repeated exposure to information is far more complex. As a proxy for intervention experiments, we compare user responses to multiple exposures on two different social media sites, Twitter and Digg. We show that the position of exposing messages on the user-interface strongly affects social contagion. Accounting for this visibility significantly simplifies the dynamics of social contagion. The likelihood an individual will spread information increases monotonically with exposure, while explicit feedback about how many friends have previously spread it increases the likelihood of a response. We provide a framework for unifying information visibility, divided attention, and explicit social feedback to predict the temporal dynamics of user behavior. IN contagious processes (e.g. measles, hijacking, etc.) the occurrence of events increases the probability of further events occurring in the near future. Also several series of events may interact with each other, for example one might consider notifications of some disease in a number of adjacent regions which would interact through infectives or carriers moving between the regions. In this paper we postulate a model for such processes and derive a general expression for the point spectral matrices. These theoretical spectra are useful for comparison with spectra estimated from data and thus provide a means of evaluating the fit of such a model in the manner of Bartlett (1963). The model studied was put forward in an earlier paper (Hawkes, 1971) but the solution was obtained only in special cases. In this paper an elegant solution is obtained for the. general case. Consider a stationary k-variate point process N(t), where Ni(t) represents the cumulative number of events in the ith process up to time t, with intensity vector X = of dN(t) dt and covariance density matrix