Predicting personalized sequential behavior is a key task for recommender systems. In order to predict user actions such as the next product to purchase, movie to watch, or place to visit, it is essential to take into account both long-term user preferences and sequential patterns (i.e., short-term dynamics). Matrix Factorization and Markov Chain methods have emerged as two separate but powerful paradigms for modeling the two respectively. Combining these ideas has led to unified methods that accommodate long- and short-term dynamics simultaneously by modeling pairwise user-item and item-item interactions. In spite of the success of such methods for tackling dense data, they are challenged by sparsity issues, which are prevalent in real-world datasets. In recent years, similarity-based methods have been proposed for (sequentially-unaware) item recommendation with promising results on sparse datasets. In this paper, we propose to fuse such methods with Markov Chains to make personalized sequential recommendations. We evaluate our method, Fossil, on a variety of large, real-world datasets. We show quantitatively that Fossil outperforms alternative algorithms, especially on sparse datasets, and qualitatively that it captures personalized dynamics and is able to make meaningful recommendations.
Temporal dynamics. Several works take temporal dynamics into account, mostly based on MF techniques @cite_14 . This includes seminal work proposed by Koren @cite_24 @cite_19 , where they showed state-of-the-art results on data by modeling the evolution of users and items over time. However, such works are ultimately building models to understand past actions (e.g. What did Tom like in 2008?', What does Grace like to do on Weekends?'), by making use of the explicit time stamps. The sequential prediction task differs from theirs in that it does not use time stamps directly, but rather models sequential relationships between actions.
@cite_24 @cite_19 @cite_14
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The queries people issue to a search engine and the results clicked following a query change over time. For example, after the earthquake in Japan in March 2011, the query japan spiked in popularity and people issuing the query were more likely to click government-related results than they would prior to the earthquake. We explore the modeling and prediction of such temporal patterns in Web search behavior. We develop a temporal modeling framework adapted from physics and signal processing and harness it to predict temporal patterns in search behavior using smoothing, trends, periodicities, and surprises. Using current and past behavioral data, we develop a learning procedure that can be used to construct models of users' Web search activities. We also develop a novel methodology that learns to select the best prediction model from a family of predictive models for a given query or a class of queries. Experimental results indicate that the predictive models significantly outperform baseline models that weight historical evidence the same for all queries. We present two applications where new methods introduced for the temporal modeling of user behavior significantly improve upon the state of the art. Finally, we discuss opportunities for using models of temporal dynamics to enhance other areas of Web search and information retrieval. Complex activities typically consist of multiple primitive events happening in parallel or sequentially over a period of time. Understanding such activities requires recognizing not only each individual event but, more importantly, capturing their spatiotemporal dependencies over different time intervals. Most of the current graphical model-based approaches have several limitations. First, time--sliced graphical models such as hidden Markov models (HMMs) and dynamic Bayesian networks are typically based on points of time and they hence can only capture three temporal relations: precedes, follows, and equals. Second, HMMs are probabilistic finite-state machines that grow exponentially as the number of parallel events increases. Third, other approaches such as syntactic and description-based methods, while rich in modeling temporal relationships, do not have the expressive power to capture uncertainties. To address these issues, we introduce the interval temporal Bayesian network (ITBN), a novel graphical model that combines the Bayesian Network with the interval algebra to explicitly model the temporal dependencies over time intervals. Advanced machine learning methods are introduced to learn the ITBN model structure and parameters. Experimental results show that by reasoning with spatiotemporal dependencies, the proposed model leads to a significantly improved performance when modeling and recognizing complex activities involving both parallel and sequential events. In this work, we discover the daily location-driven routines that are contained in a massive real-life human dataset collected by mobile phones. Our goal is the discovery and analysis of human routines that characterize both individual and group behaviors in terms of location patterns. We develop an unsupervised methodology based on two differing probabilistic topic models and apply them to the daily life of 97 mobile phone users over a 16-month period to achieve these goals. Topic models are probabilistic generative models for documents that identify the latent structure that underlies a set of words. Routines dominating the entire group's activities, identified with a methodology based on the Latent Dirichlet Allocation topic model, include “going to work late”, “going home early”, “working nonstop” and “having no reception (phone off)” at different times over varying time-intervals. We also detect routines which are characteristic of users, with a methodology based on the Author-Topic model. With the routines discovered, and the two methods of characterizing days and users, we can then perform various tasks. We use the routines discovered to determine behavioral patterns of users and groups of users. For example, we can find individuals that display specific daily routines, such as “going to work early” or “turning off the mobile (or having no reception) in the evenings”. We are also able to characterize daily patterns by determining the topic structure of days in addition to determining whether certain routines occur dominantly on weekends or weekdays. Furthermore, the routines discovered can be used to rank users or find subgroups of users who display certain routines. We can also characterize users based on their entropy. We compare our method to one based on clustering using K-means. Finally, we analyze an individual's routines over time to determine regions with high variations, which may correspond to specific events. We have already shown that extracting long-term dependencies from sequential data is difficult, both for determimstic dynamical systems such as recurrent networks, and probabilistic models such as hidden Markov models (HMMs) or input output hidden Markov models (IOHMMs). In practice, to avoid this problem, researchers have used domain specific a-priori knowledge to give meaning to the hidden or state variables representing past context. In this paper, we propose to use a more general type of a-priori knowledge, namely that the temporal dependencies are structured hierarchically. This implies that long-term dependencies are represented by variables with a long time scale. This principle is applied to a recurrent network which includes delays and multiple time scales. Experiments confirm the advantages of such structures. A similar approach is proposed for HMMs and IOHMMs.