We present a methodology to estimate the number of attendees to events happening in the city from cellular network data. In this work we used anonymized Call Detail Records (CDRs) comprising data on where and when users access the cellular network. Our approach is based on two key ideas: (1) we identify the network cells associated to the event location. (2) We verify the attendance of each user, as a measure of whether (s)he generates CDRs during the event, but not during other times. We evaluate our approach to estimate the number of attendees to a number of events ranging from football matches in stadiums to concerts and festivals in open squares. Comparing our results with the best groundtruth data available, our estimates provide a median error of less than 15 of the actual number of attendees.
The work in @cite_13 is very interesting and closer to our approach. They use a Bayesian model to localize the source of CDRs. Then, they compute the probability @math of each user to participate an event as @math . Where @math is the fraction of time in which the user is in the event area at the event time. @math is the fraction of time in which the use is in the event area at other times. Finally, they use an outlier detection mechanism (based on a z-score) to classify users as participants to an event. Unfortunately, they use the approach only to identify an event and not to estimate the actual attendance.
@cite_13
2014394530 2133027741 1983481354 2139386764
The task of event coreference resolution plays a critical role in many natural language processing applications such as information extraction, question answering, and topic detection and tracking. In this article, we describe a new class of unsupervised, nonparametric Bayesian models with the purpose of probabilistically inferring coreference clusters of event mentions from a collection of unlabeled documents. In order to infer these clusters, we automatically extract various lexical, syntactic, and semantic features for each event mention from the document collection. Extracting a rich set of features for each event mention allows us to cast event coreference resolution as the task of grouping together the mentions that share the same features they have the same participating entities, share the same location, happen at the same time, etc.. Some of the most important challenges posed by the resolution of event coreference in an unsupervised way stem from a the choice of representing event mentions through a rich set of features and b the ability of modeling events described both within the same document and across multiple documents. Our first unsupervised model that addresses these challenges is a generalization of the hierarchical Dirichlet process. This new extension presents the hierarchical Dirichlet process's ability to capture the uncertainty regarding the number of clustering components and, additionally, takes into account any finite number of features associated with each event mention. Furthermore, to overcome some of the limitations of this extension, we devised a new hybrid model, which combines an infinite latent class model with a discrete time series model. The main advantage of this hybrid model stands in its capability to automatically infer the number of features associated with each event mention from data and, at the same time, to perform an automatic selection of the most informative features for the task of event coreference. The evaluation performed for solving both within-and cross-document event coreference shows significant improvements of these models when compared against two baselines for this task. These lecture notes highlight the mathematical and computational structure relating to the formulation of, and development of algorithms for, the Bayesian approach to inverse problems in differential equations. This approach is fundamental in the quantification of uncertainty within applications in volving the blending of mathematical models with data. The finite dimensional situation is described first, along with some motivational examples. Then the development of probability measures on separable Banach space is undertaken, using a random series over an infinite set of functions to construct draws; these probability measures are used as priors in the Bayesian approach to inverse problems. Regularity of draws from the priors is studied in the natural Sobolev or Besov spaces implied by the choice of functions in the random series construction, and the Kolmogorov continuity theorem is used to extend regularity considerations to the space of Holder continuous functions. Bayes’ theorem is de rived in this prior setting, and here interpreted as finding conditions under which the posterior is absolutely continuous with respect to the prior, and determining a formula for the Radon-Nikodym derivative in terms of the likelihood of the data. Having established the form of the posterior, we then describe various properties common to it in the infinite dimensional setting. These properties include well-posedness, approximation theory, and the existence of maximum a posteriori estimators. We then describe measure-preserving dynamics, again on the infinite dimensional space, including Markov chain-Monte C arlo and sequential Monte Carlo methods, and measure-preserving reversible stochastic differential equations. By formulating the theory and algorithms on the underlying infinite dimensional space, we obtain a framework suitable for rigorous analysis of the accuracy of reconstructions, of computational complexity, as well as naturally constructing algorithms which perform well under mesh refinement, since they are inherently well-defined in infinite dimensions. With the fast growth of smart devices and social networks, a lot of computing systems collect data that record different types of activities. An important computational challenge is to analyze these data, extract patterns, and understand activity trends. We consider the problem of mining activity networks to identify interesting events, such as a big concert or a demonstration in a city, or a trending keyword in a user community in a social network. We define an event to be a subset of nodes in the network that are close to each other and have high activity levels. We formalize the problem of event detection using two graph-theoretic formulations. The first one captures the compactness of an event using the sum of distances among all pairs of the event nodes. We show that this formulation can be mapped to the maxcut problem, and thus, it can be solved by applying standard semidefinite programming techniques. The second formulation captures compactness using a minimum-distance tree. This formulation leads to the prize-collecting Steiner-tree problem, which we solve by adapting existing approximation algorithms. For the two problems we introduce, we also propose efficient and effective greedy approaches and we prove performance guarantees for one of them. We experiment with the proposed algorithms on real datasets from a public bicycling system and a geolocation-enabled social network dataset collected from twitter. The results show that our methods are able to detect meaningful events. This paper builds upon the scalable admission control schemes for CDMA networks developed in F. (2003, December 2004). These schemes are based on an exact representation of the geometry of both the downlink and the uplink channels and ensure that the associated power allocation problems have solutions under constraints on the maximal power of each station user. These schemes are decentralized in that they can be implemented in such a way that each base station only has to consider the load brought by its own users to decide on admission. By load we mean here some function of the configuration of the users and of their bit rates that is described in the paper. When implemented in each base station, such schemes ensure the global feasibility of the power allocation even in a very large (infinite number of cells) network. The estimation of the capacity of large CDMA networks controlled by such schemes was made in these references. In certain cases, for example for a Poisson pattern of mobiles in an hexagonal network of base stations, this approach gives explicit formulas for the infeasibility probability, defined as the fraction of cells where the population of users cannot be entirely admitted by the base station. In the present paper we show that the notion of infeasibility probability is closely related to the notion of blocking probability, defined as the fraction of users that are rejected by the admission control policy in the long run, a notion of central practical importance within this setting. The relation between these two notions is not bound to our particular admission control schemes, but is of more general nature, and in a simplified scenario it can be identified with the well-known Erlang loss formula. We prove this relation using a general spatial birth-and-death process, where customer locations are represented by a spatial point process that evolves over time as users arrive or depart. This allows our model to include the exact representation of the geometry of inter-cell and intra-cell interferences, which play an essential role in the load indicators used in these cellular network admission control schemes.