The Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is one of the mainstays of statistical modeling of discrete time series, with applications including speech recognition, computational biology, computer vision and econometrics. Estimating an HMM from its observation process is often addressed via the Baum-Welch algorithm, which is known to be susceptible to local optima. In this paper, we first give a general characterization of the basin of attraction associated with any global optimum of the population likelihood. By exploiting this characterization, we provide non-asymptotic finite sample guarantees on the Baum-Welch updates, guaranteeing geometric convergence to a small ball of radius on the order of the minimax rate around a global optimum. As a concrete example, we prove a linear rate of convergence for a hidden Markov mixture of two isotropic Gaussians given a suitable mean separation and an initialization within a ball of large radius around (one of) the true parameters. To our knowledge, these are the first rigorous local convergence guarantees to global optima for the Baum-Welch algorithm in a setting where the likelihood function is nonconvex. We complement our theoretical results with thorough numerical simulations studying the convergence of the Baum-Welch algorithm and illustrating the accuracy of our predictions.
Our work builds upon a framework for analysis of EM, as previously introduced by a subset of the current authors @cite_8 ; see also the follow-up work to regularized EM algorithms @cite_28 @cite_26 . All of this past work applies to models based on i.i.d. samples, and as we show in this paper, there are a number of non-trivial steps required to derive analogous theory for the dependent variables that arise for HMMs. Before doing so, let us put the results of this paper in context relative to older and more classical work on Baum-Welch and related algorithms.
@cite_28 @cite_26 @cite_8
2165959773 2170546552 2153331007 1968668741
We consider problems of sequence processing and propose a solution based on a discrete-state model in order to represent past context. We introduce a recurrent connectionist architecture having a modular structure that associates a subnetwork to each state. The model has a statistical interpretation we call input-output hidden Markov model (IOHMM). It can be trained by the estimation-maximization (EM) or generalized EM (GEM) algorithms, considering state trajectories as missing data, which decouples temporal credit assignment and actual parameter estimation. The model presents similarities to hidden Markov models (HMMs), but allows us to map input sequences to output sequences, using the same processing style as recurrent neural networks. IOHMMs are trained using a more discriminant learning paradigm than HMMs, while potentially taking advantage of the EM algorithm. We demonstrate that IOHMMs are well suited for solving grammatical inference problems on a benchmark problem. Experimental results are presented for the seven Tomita grammars, showing that these adaptive models can attain excellent generalization. Mulmuley [Mul12a] recently gave an explicit version of Noether’s Normalization lemma for ring of invariants of matrices under simultaneous conjugation, under the conjecture that there are deterministic black-box algorithms for polynomial identity testing (PIT). He argued that this gives evidence that constructing such algorithms for PIT is beyond current techniques. In this work, we show this is not the case. That is, we improve Mulmuley’s reduction and correspondingly weaken the conjecture regarding PIT needed to give explicit Noether Normalization. We then observe that the weaker conjecture has recently been nearly settled by the authors ([FS12]), who gave quasipolynomial size hitting sets for the class of read-once oblivious algebraic branching programs (ROABPs). This gives the desired explicit Noether Normalization unconditionally, up to quasipolynomial factors. As a consequence of our proof we give a deterministic parallel polynomial-time algorithm for deciding if two matrix tuples have intersecting orbit closures, under simultaneous conjugation. We also study the strength of conjectures that Mulmuley requires to obtain similar results as ours. We prove that his conjectures are stronger, in the sense that the computational model he needs PIT algorithms for is equivalent to the well-known algebraic branching program (ABP) model, which is provably stronger than the ROABP model. Finally, we consider the depth-3 diagonal circuit model as defined by Saxena [Sax08], as PIT algorithms for this model also have implications in Mulmuley’s work. Previous work (such as [ASS12] and [FS12]) have given quasipolynomial size hitting sets for this model. In this work, we give a much simpler construction of such hitting sets, using techniques of Shpilka and Volkovich [SV09]. Existing algorithms for estimating the model parameters of an explicit-duration hidden Markov model (HMM) usually require computations as large as O((MD sup 2 + M sup 2 )T) or O(M sup 2 DT), where M is the number of states; D is the maximum possible interval between state transitions; and T is the period of observations used to estimate the model parameters. Because of such computational requirements, these algorithms are not practical when we wish to construct an HMM model with large state space and large explicit state duration and process a large amount of measurement data to obtain high accuracy. We propose a new forward-backward algorithm whose computational complexity is only O((MD + M sup 2 )T), a reduction by almost a factor of D when D > M and whose memory requirement is O(MT). As an application example, we discuss an HMM characterization of access traffic observed at a large-scale Web site: we formulate the Web access pattern in terms of an HMM with explicit duration and estimate the model parameters using our algorithm. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) have during the last decade become a widespread tool for modeling sequences of dependent random variables. Inference for such models is usually based on the maximum-likelihood estimator (MLE), and consistency of the MLE for general HMMs was recently proved by Leroux. In this paper we show that under mild conditions the MLE is also asymptotically normal and prove that the observed information matrix is a consistent estimator of the Fisher information.