The fundamental building block of social influence is for one person to elicit a response in another. Researchers measuring a "response" in social media typically depend either on detailed models of human behavior or on platform-specific cues such as re-tweets, hash tags, URLs, or mentions. Most content on social networks is difficult to model because the modes and motivation of human expression are diverse and incompletely understood. We introduce content transfer, an information-theoretic measure with a predictive interpretation that directly quantifies the strength of the effect of one user's content on another's in a model-free way. Estimating this measure is made possible by combining recent advances in non-parametric entropy estimation with increasingly sophisticated tools for content representation. We demonstrate on Twitter data collected for thousands of users that content transfer is able to capture non-trivial, predictive relationships even for pairs of users not linked in the follower or mention graph. We suggest that this measure makes large quantities of previously under-utilized social media content accessible to rigorous statistical causal analysis.
A crucial component of our approach is based on the ability to estimate entropic quantities for very-high-dimensional random variables. Due to data sparsity, naive methods based on binning are not feasible. The binless approach for entropy estimation introduced in @cite_15 has been used for quantifying information in neural spike trains @cite_21 . The binless approach has been extended for estimating higher order entropic quantities such as mutual information @cite_34 , divergences between two distributions @cite_16 , and transfer entropy @cite_31 . We also note that a linear version of the transfer entropy known as Granger causality @cite_0 has been used recently for uncovering predictive causal relationships in neuroscience @cite_17 , genetics @cite_22 , climate modeling @cite_24 and various other applications.
@cite_31 @cite_22 @cite_21 @cite_16 @cite_0 @cite_24 @cite_15 @cite_34 @cite_17
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We present a unified and complete account of maximum entropy density estimation subject to constraints represented by convex potential functions or, alternatively, by convex regularization. We provide fully general performance guarantees and an algorithm with a complete convergence proof. As special cases, we easily derive performance guarantees for many known regularization types, including l1, l2, l22, and l2 + l22 style regularization. We propose an algorithm solving a large and general subclass of generalized maximum entropy problems, including all discussed in the paper, and prove its convergence. Our approach generalizes and unifies techniques based on information geometry and Bregman divergences as well as those based more directly on compactness. Our work is motivated by a novel application of maximum entropy to species distribution modeling, an important problem in conservation biology and ecology. In a set of experiments on real-world data, we demonstrate the utility of maximum entropy in this setting. We explore effects of different feature types, sample sizes, and regularization levels on the performance of maxent, and discuss interpretability of the resulting models. We give near-optimal sketching and streaming algorithms for estimating Shannon entropy in the most general streaming model, with arbitrary insertions and deletions. This improves on prior results that obtain suboptimal space bounds in the general model, and near-optimal bounds in the insertion-only model without sketching. Our high-level approach is simple: we give algorithms to estimate Tsallis entropy, and use them to extrapolate an estimate of Shannon entropy. The accuracy of our estimates is proven using approximation theory arguments and extremal properties of Chebyshev polynomials. Our work also yields the best-known and near-optimal additive approximations for entropy, and hence also for conditional entropy and mutual information. Motivated by recent work of Joe (1989,Ann. Inst. Statist. Math.,41, 683–697), we introduce estimators of entropy and describe their properties. We study the effects of tail behaviour, distribution smoothness and dimensionality on convergence properties. In particular, we argue that root-n consistency of entropy estimation requires appropriate assumptions about each of these three features. Our estimators are different from Joe's, and may be computed without numerical integration, but it can be shown that the same interaction of tail behaviour, smoothness and dimensionality also determines the convergence rate of Joe's estimator. We study both histogram and kernel estimators of entropy, and in each case suggest empirical methods for choosing the smoothing parameter. In most algorithmic applications which compare two distributions, information theoretic distances are more natural than standard l p norms. In this paper we design streaming and sublinear time property testing algorithms for entropy and various information theoretic distances. posed the problem of property testing with respect to the Jensen-Shannon distance. We present optimal algorithms for estimating bounded, symmetric f-divergences (including the Jensen-Shannon divergence and the Hellinger distance) between distributions in various property testing frameworks. Along the way, we close a (log n) H gap between the upper and lower bounds for estimating entropy H, yielding an optimal algorithm over all values of the entropy. In a data stream setting (sublinear space), we give the first algorithm for estimating the entropy of a distribution. Our algorithm runs in polylogarithmic space and yields an asymptotic constant factor approximation scheme. An integral part of the algorithm is an interesting use of an F 0 (the number of distinct elements in a set) estimation algorithm; we also provide other results along the space time approximation tradeoff curve.Our results have interesting structural implications that connect sublinear time and space constrained algorithms. The mediating model is the random order streaming model, which assumes the input is a random permutation of a multiset and was first considered by Munro and Paterson in 1980. We show that any property testing algorithm in the combined oracle model for calculating a permutation invariant functions can be simulated in the random order model in a single pass. This addresses a question raised by regarding the relationship between property testing and stream algorithms. Further, we give a polylog-space PTAS for estimating the entropy of a one pass random order stream. This bound cannot be achieved in the combined oracle (generalized property testing) model.