Trajectory prediction (TP) is of great importance for a wide range of location-based applications in intelligent transport systems such as location-based advertising, route planning, traffic management, and early warning systems. In the last few years, the widespread use of GPS navigation systems and wireless communication technology enabled vehicles has resulted in huge volumes of trajectory data. The task of utilizing this data employing spatio-temporal techniques for trajectory prediction in an efficient and accurate manner is an ongoing research problem. Existing TP approaches are limited to short-term predictions. Moreover, they cannot handle a large volume of trajectory data for long-term prediction. To address these limitations, we propose a scalable clustering and Markov chain based hybrid framework, called Traj-clusiVAT-based TP, for both short-term and long-term trajectory prediction, which can handle a large number of overlapping trajectories in a dense road network. Traj-clusiVAT can also determine the number of clusters, which represent different movement behaviours in input trajectory data. In our experiments, we compare our proposed approach with a mixed Markov model (MMM)-based scheme, and a trajectory clustering, NETSCAN-based TP method for both short- and long-term trajectory predictions. We performed our experiments on two real, vehicle trajectory datasets, including a large-scale trajectory dataset consisting of 3.28 million trajectories obtained from 15,061 taxis in Singapore over a period of one month. Experimental results on two real trajectory datasets show that our proposed approach outperforms the existing approaches in terms of both short- and long-term prediction performances, based on prediction accuracy and distance error (in km).
Several rule-based methods have been used for location prediction. Morzy @cite_28 implemented a modified version of the PrefixSpan algorithm to extract association rules from a moving object database, and used frequent pattern tree with a matching function to select the best association rule from the database of movement rules. Jeung al @cite_40 proposed a hybrid prediction approach, which combines association rules in the form of trajectory patterns with the motion functions of an object's recent movements, to estimate future locations. Given an object's recent movement and predictive queries, the best association rule is chosen for prediction. The query processing approaches presented in @cite_40 can only support near and distant-time predictive queries, making them unsuitable for long-term trajectory prediction. Moreover, with the huge number of trajectories, the number of association rules is also huge, which makes association-rule based algorithms impractical for large-scale mobility data.
@cite_28 @cite_40
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Existing prediction methods in moving objects databases cannot forecast locations accurately if the query time is far away from the current time. Even for near future prediction, most techniques assume the trajectory of an object's movements can be represented by some mathematical formulas of motion functions based on its recent movements. However, an object's movements are more complicated than what the mathematical formulas can represent. Prediction based on an object's trajectory patterns is a powerful way and has been investigated by several work. But their main interest is how to discover the patterns. In this paper, we present a novel prediction approach, namely The Hybrid Prediction Model, which estimates an object's future locations based on its pattern information as well as existing motion functions using the object's recent movements. Specifically, an object's trajectory patterns which have ad-hoc forms for prediction are discovered and then indexed by a novel access method for efficient query processing. In addition, two query processing techniques that can provide accurate results for both near and distant time predictive queries are presented. Our extensive experiments demonstrate that proposed techniques are more accurate and efficient than existing forecasting schemes. The pervasiveness of mobile devices and location based services is leading to an increasing volume of mobility data.This side eect provides the opportunity for innovative methods that analyse the behaviors of movements. In this paper we propose WhereNext, which is a method aimed at predicting with a certain level of accuracy the next location of a moving object. The prediction uses previously extracted movement patterns named Trajectory Patterns, which are a concise representation of behaviors of moving objects as sequences of regions frequently visited with a typical travel time. A decision tree, named T-pattern Tree, is built and evaluated with a formal training and test process. The tree is learned from the Trajectory Patterns that hold a certain area and it may be used as a predictor of the next location of a new trajectory finding the best matching path in the tree. Three dierent best matching methods to classify a new moving object are proposed and their impact on the quality of prediction is studied extensively. Using Trajectory Patterns as predictive rules has the following implications: (I) the learning depends on the movement of all available objects in a certain area instead of on the individual history of an object; (II) the prediction tree intrinsically contains the spatio-temporal properties that have emerged from the data and this allows us to define matching methods that striclty depend on the properties of such movements. In addition, we propose a set of other measures, that evaluate a priori the predictive power of a set of Trajectory Patterns. This measures were tuned on a real life case study. Finally, an exhaustive set of experiments and results on the real dataset are presented. Location is a key context ingredient and many existing pervasive applications rely on the current locations of their users. However, with the ability to predict the future location and movement behavior of a user, the usability of these applications can be greatly improved. In this paper, we propose an approach to predict both the intended destination and the future route of a person. Rather than predicting the destination and future route separately, we have focused on making prediction in an integrated way by exploiting personal movement data (i.e. trajectories) collected by GPS. Since trajectories contain daily whereabouts information of a person, the proposed approach first detects the significant places where the person may depart from or go to using a clustering-based algorithm called FBM (Forward-Backward Matching), then abstracts the trajectories based on a space partitioning method, and finally extracts movement patterns from the abstracted trajectories using an extended CRPM (Continuous Route Pattern Mining) algorithm. Extracted movement patterns are organized in terms of origin-destination couples. The prediction is made based on a pattern tree built from these movement patterns. With the real personal movement data of 14 participants, we conducted a number of experiments to evaluate the performance of our system. The results show that our approach can achieve approximately 80 and 60 accuracy in destination prediction and 1-step prediction, respectively, and result in an average deviation of approximately 60 m in continuous future route prediction. Finally, based on the proposed approach, we implemented a prototype running on mobile phones, which can extract patterns from a user's historical movement data and predict the destination and future route. Location prediction has attracted a significant amount of research effort. Given an object's recent movements and a future time, the goal of location prediction is to predict the location of this object at the future time specified. Prior works have elaborated on mining association relationships among regions, in which objects frequently appear, to predict locations. Association relationships among regions are represented as association rules. By exploring association relationships among regions, prior works are able to have a good accuracy for location prediction. However, with a large amount of trajectory data produced, a huge amount of association rules is expected. Furthermore, trajectory data has both the spatial and temporal information. To further enhance the accuracy of location prediction, one could utilize not only spatial information but also temporal information to estimate locations of objects. In this paper, we propose a spatial-temporal trajectory model (abbreviated as STT) to capture movement behaviors of objects. STT is represented as a probabilistic suffix tree with both spatial and temporal information of movements. Note that STT is able to discover sequential traversal relationships among regions and, for each region, STT derives the corresponding probabilities about the time when objects appear. With the nature of probabilistic suffix tree, we could use a compact structure to capture movement behavior of objects compared to association rules proposed. In light of STT, we further propose an algorithm to traverse STT for location prediction. By exploring both the spatial and temporal information of STT, the accuracy of location prediction is improved. To evaluate our proposed STT and prediction algorithm, we conduct experiments on the synthetic dataset generated from real datasets. Experimental results shows that our proposed STT is able to capture both spatial and temporal patterns of movement behaviors and, by exploring STT, our proposed prediction algorithm outperforms existing works.