Twitter as a new form of social media potentially contains useful information that opens new opportunities for content analysis on tweets. This paper examines the predictive power of Twitter regarding the US presidential election of 2012. For this study, we analyzed 32 million tweets regarding the US presidential election by employing a combination of machine learning techniques. We devised an advanced classifier for sentiment analysis in order to increase the accuracy of Twitter content analysis. We carried out our analysis by comparing Twitter results with traditional opinion polls. In addition, we used the Latent Dirichlet Allocation model to extract the underlying topical structure from the selected tweets. Our results show that we can determine the popularity of candidates by running sentiment analysis. We can also uncover candidates popularities in the US states by running the sentiment analysis algorithm on geo-tagged tweets. To the best of our knowledge, no previous work in the field has presented a systematic analysis of a considerable number of tweets employing a combination of analysis techniques by which we conducted this study. Thus, our results aptly suggest that Twitter as a well-known social medium is a valid source in predicting future events such as elections. This implies that understanding public opinions and trends via social media in turn allows us to propose a cost- and time-effective way not only for spreading and sharing information, but also for predicting future events.
A social medium Twitter service has become omnipresent with hyper-connectivity for social networking and content sharing. Facebook established a status update field in June 2006, but Twitter took status sharing between people to cell phones four months later @cite_24 . Since then, Twitter has grown exponentially beyond status sharing. For instance, in 2009 the number of Twitter users was 18.2 million, which was 1,448 per cent growth from the year of 2008 @cite_35 . Then, what made Twitter grow dramatically? One reason may be the simplicity of Twitter in using. For instance, while blogging needs decent writing skills and a large size of content to fill pages @cite_24 , Twitter originally developed for mobile phones @cite_35 restricts users to posting 140-character text messages, also known as tweets, to a network of others without technical requirement of reciprocity @cite_16 . This encourages more users to post, and which facilitates real-time diffusion of information @cite_16 . Thus, users can easily post and read tweets on the web, using different access methods, such as desktop computers, smartphones, and other devices @cite_35 .
@cite_24 @cite_35 @cite_16
2093588201 2091325569 2101196063 2756686115
In just under seven years, Twitter has grown to count nearly 3 of the entire global population among its active users who have sent more than 170 billion 140-character messages. Today the service plays such a significant role in American culture that the Library of Congress has assembled a permanent archive of the site back to its first tweet, updated daily. With its open API, Twitter has become one of the most popular data sources for social research, yet the majority of the literature has focused on it as a text or network graph source, with only limited efforts to date focusing exclusively on the geography of Twitter, assessing the various sources of geographic information on the service and their accuracy. More than 3 of all tweets are found to have native location information available, while a naive geocoder based on a simple major cities gazetteer and relying on the user-provided Location and Profile fields is able to geolocate more than a third of all tweets with high accuracy when measured against the GPS-based baseline. Geographic proximity is found to play a minimal role both in who users communicate with and what they communicate about, providing evidence that social media is shifting the communicative landscape. The 5-year-old social media Web site Twitter now claims that more than 100 million users post 230 million "tweets" (text messages up to 140 characters long) every day. In that torrent of data, some social scientists see an unprecedented opportunity to study human communication and social networks. On page [1878][1] of this week's issue of Science , researchers report their effort to use Twitter to study the collective moods of millions of people in diverse cultures around the world in real time. Their findings paint a portrait of humanity's mood swings. @PARASPLIT [1]: http: www.sciencemag.org cgi content full 333 6051 1878 Twitter, a microblogging service less than three years old, commands more than 41 million users as of July 2009 and is growing fast. Twitter users tweet about any topic within the 140-character limit and follow others to receive their tweets. The goal of this paper is to study the topological characteristics of Twitter and its power as a new medium of information sharing. We have crawled the entire Twitter site and obtained 41.7 million user profiles, 1.47 billion social relations, 4,262 trending topics, and 106 million tweets. In its follower-following topology analysis we have found a non-power-law follower distribution, a short effective diameter, and low reciprocity, which all mark a deviation from known characteristics of human social networks [28]. In order to identify influentials on Twitter, we have ranked users by the number of followers and by PageRank and found two rankings to be similar. Ranking by retweets differs from the previous two rankings, indicating a gap in influence inferred from the number of followers and that from the popularity of one's tweets. We have analyzed the tweets of top trending topics and reported on their temporal behavior and user participation. We have classified the trending topics based on the active period and the tweets and show that the majority (over 85 ) of topics are headline news or persistent news in nature. A closer look at retweets reveals that any retweeted tweet is to reach an average of 1,000 users no matter what the number of followers is of the original tweet. Once retweeted, a tweet gets retweeted almost instantly on next hops, signifying fast diffusion of information after the 1st retweet. To the best of our knowledge this work is the first quantitative study on the entire Twittersphere and information diffusion on it. Twitter enables large populations of end-users of software to publicly share their experiences and concerns about software systems in the form of micro-blogs. Such data can be collected and classified to help software developers infer users' needs, detect bugs in their code, and plan for future releases of their systems. However, automatically capturing, classifying, and presenting useful tweets is not a trivial task. Challenges stem from the scale of the data available, its unique format, diverse nature, and high percentage of irrelevant information and spam. Motivated by these challenges, this paper reports on a three-fold study that is aimed at leveraging Twitter as a main source of software user requirements. The main objective is to enable a responsive, interactive, and adaptive data-driven requirements engineering process. Our analysis is conducted using 4,000 tweets collected from the Twitter feeds of 10 software systems sampled from a broad range of application domains. The results reveal that around 50 of collected tweets contain useful technical information. The results also show that text classifiers such as Support Vector Machines and Naive Bayes can be very effective in capturing and categorizing technically informative tweets. Additionally, the paper describes and evaluates multiple summarization strategies for generating meaningful summaries of informative software-relevant tweets.