Epidemic processes are common out-of-equilibrium phenomena of broad interdisciplinary interest. Recently, dynamic message-passing (DMP) has been proposed as an efficient algorithm for simulating epidemic models on networks, and in particular for estimating the probability that a given node will become infectious at a particular time. To date, DMP has been applied exclusively to models with one-way state changes, as opposed to models like SIS and SIRS where nodes can return to previously inhabited states. Because many real-world epidemics can exhibit such recurrent dynamics, we propose a DMP algorithm for complex, recurrent epidemic models on networks. Our approach takes correlations between neighboring nodes into account while preventing causal signals from backtracking to their immediate source, and thus avoids echo chamber effects'' where a pair of adjacent nodes each amplify the probability that the other is infectious. We demonstrate that this approach well approximates results obtained from Monte Carlo simulation and that its accuracy is often superior to the pair approximation (which also takes second-order correlations into account). Moreover, our approach is more computationally efficient than the pair approximation, especially for complex epidemic models: the number of variables in our DMP approach grows as @math where @math is the number of edges and @math is the number of states, as opposed to @math for the pair approximation. We suspect that the resulting reduction in computational effort, as well as the conceptual simplicity of DMP, will make it a useful tool in epidemic modeling, especially for high-dimensional inference tasks.
Systems of differential equations for , such as , do not appear to have a closed analytic form due to their nonlinearities. On the other hand, we can compute quantities such as epidemic thresholds by linearizing around a stationary point, such as @math where the initial outbreak is small. Given a perturbation @math , the linear stability of the system, i.e., whether or not @math diverges in time, is governed by the eigenvalues of the Jacobian matrix @math of the right hand side of at the stationary point @math . The Jacobian for at @math is (j i),(k j') = - kj ij' + (1- j ^*) (j i),(k j') , . where (j i),(k j') = jj' (1- ik ) , . This definition of @math is another way of saying that the edge @math influences edges @math for @math , but does not backtrack to @math . This corresponds to our assumption that infections, for instance, do not bounce from @math to @math and back again and create an echo chamber effect. For this reason, @math is also known in the literature as the non-backtracking matrix @cite_24 or the Hashimoto matrix @cite_16 .
@cite_24 @cite_16
2102902005 2964292545 2002850151 2003571173
Consider a Markov chain on an infinite tree T = (V,E) rooted at . In such a chain, once the initial root state ( ) is chosen, each vertex iteratively chooses its state from the one of its parent by an application of a Markov transition rule (and all such applications are independent). Let µj denote the resulting measure for ( ) = j. µj is defined on configurations = ( (x))x2V 2 A V , where A is some finite set. Let µ n denote the restriction of µ to the sigma-algebra generated by the variables (x) where x is at distance exactly n from . Letting n = maxi,j2A dTV (µ n ,µ n ), where dTV denotes total variation distance, we say that the reconstruction problem is solvable if liminfn!1 n > 0. Reconstruction solvability roughly means that the n’th level of the tree contains a non-vanishing amount of information on the root of the tree, as n ! 1. In this paper we study the problem of robust reconstruction. Let be a non degenerate distribution on A and > 0. Let be chosen according to µ n and 0 be obtained from by letting for each node independently (v) = 0 (v) with probability 1 and 0 (v) to be an independent sample from otherwise. We denote by µ n [, ] the resulting measure on 0 . The measure µ n [, ] is a perturbation of the measure µ n . Letting n(, ) = maxi,j2A dTV (µ n [, ],µ n [, ]), we say that the reconstruction problem is -robust-solvable if liminfn!1 n(, ) > 0 for all 0 1, where 2(M) is the second largest eigenvalue of M (in absolute value), then for all non-degenerate , the reconstruction problem is -robust-solvable. We prove a converse and show that the reconstruction problem is not -robust-solvable if B| 2(M)| 2 < 1. This proves a conjecture by the second author and Peres. We also consider other models of noise and general trees. We consider the problem of clustering a graph @math into two communities by observing a subset of the vertex correlations. Specifically, we consider the inverse problem with observed variables @math , where @math is the incidence matrix of a graph @math , @math is the vector of unknown vertex variables (with a uniform prior), and @math is a noise vector with Bernoulli @math i.i.d. entries. All variables and operations are Boolean. This model is motivated by coding, synchronization, and community detection problems. In particular, it corresponds to a stochastic block model or a correlation clustering problem with two communities and censored edges. Without noise, exact recovery (up to global flip) of @math is possible if and only the graph @math is connected, with a sharp threshold at the edge probability @math for Erdős-Renyi random graphs. The first goal of this paper is to determine how the edge probability @math needs to scale to allow exact recovery in the presence of noise. Defining the degree rate of the graph by @math , it is shown that exact recovery is possible if and only if @math . In other words, @math is the information theoretic threshold for exact recovery at low-SNR. In addition, an efficient recovery algorithm based on semidefinite programming is proposed and shown to succeed in the threshold regime up to twice the optimal rate. For a deterministic graph @math , defining the degree rate as @math , where @math is the minimum degree of the graph, it is shown that the proposed method achieves the rate @math , where @math is the spectral gap of the graph @math . A discrete uncoupling process for finite spaces is introduced, called the Markov Cluster Process or the MCL process. The process is the engine for the graph clustering algorithm called the MCL algorithm. The MCL process takes a stochastic matrix as input, and then alternates expansion and inflation, each step defining a stochastic matrix in terms of the previous one. Expansion corresponds with taking the @math th power of a stochastic matrix, where @math . Inflation corresponds with a parametrized operator @math , @math , that maps the set of (column) stochastic matrices onto itself. The image @math is obtained by raising each entry in @math to the @math th power and rescaling each column to have sum 1 again. In practice the process converges very fast towards a limit that is invariant under both matrix multiplication and inflation, with quadratic convergence around the limit points. The heuristic behind the process is its expected behavior for (Markov) graphs possessing cluster structure. The process is typically applied to the matrix of random walks on a given graph @math , and the connected components of (the graph associated with) the process limit generically allow a clustering interpretation of @math . The limit is in general extremely sparse and iterands are sparse in a weighted sense, implying that the MCL algorithm is very fast and highly scalable. Several mathematical properties of the MCL process are established. Most notably, the process (and algorithm) iterands posses structural properties generalizing the mapping from process limits onto clusterings. The inflation operator @math maps the class of matrices that are diagonally similar to a symmetric matrix onto itself. The phrase diagonally positive semi-definite (dpsd) is used for matrices that are diagonally similar to a positive semi-definite matrix. For @math and for @math a stochastic dpsd matrix, the image @math is again dpsd. Determinantal inequalities satisfied by a dpsd matrix @math imply a natural ordering among the diagonal elements of @math , generalizing the mapping of process limits onto clusterings. The spectrum of @math is of the form @math , where @math is the number of endclasses of the ordering associated with @math , and @math is the dimension of @math . This attests to the uncoupling effect of the inflation operator. This paper considers the problem of recovering an unknown sparse p×p matrix X from an m×m matrix Y=AXB T , where A and B are known m×p matrices with m≪p. The main result shows that there exist constructions of the sketching matrices A and B so that even if X has O(p) nonzeros, it can be recovered exactly and efficiently using a convex program as long as these nonzeros are not concentrated in any single row column of X. Furthermore, it suffices for the size of Y (the sketch dimension) to scale as m = O(√(# nonzeros in X) × log p). The results also show that the recovery is robust and stable in the sense that if X is equal to a sparse matrix plus a perturbation, then the convex program we propose produces an approximation with accuracy proportional to the size of the perturbation. Unlike traditional results on sparse recovery, where the sensing matrix produces independent measurements, our sensing operator is highly constrained (it assumes a tensor product structure). Therefore, proving recovery guarantees require nonstandard techniques. Indeed, our approach relies on a novel result concerning tensor products of bipartite graphs, which may be of independent interest. This problem is motivated by the following application, among others. Consider a p×n data matrix D, consisting of n observations of p variables. Assume that the correlation matrix X:=DD T is (approximately) sparse in the sense that each of the p variables is significantly correlated with only a few others. Our results show that these significant correlations can be detected even if we have access to only a sketch of the data S=AD with A ∈ R m×p .