Mixability of a loss is known to characterise when constant regret bounds are achievable in games of prediction with expert advice through the use of the aggregating algorithm [Vovk, 2001]. We provide a new interpretation of mixability via convex analysis that highlights the role of the Kullback-Leibler divergence in its definition. This naturally generalises to what we call �-mixability where the Bregman divergence D� replaces the KL divergence. We prove that losses that are �-mixable also enjoy constant regret bounds via a generalised aggregating algorithm that is similar to mirror descent.
The starting point for mixability and the aggregating algorithm is the work of . The general setting of prediction with expert advice is summarised in [Chapters 2 and 3] Cesa-Bianchi:2006 . There one can find a range of results that study diffferent aggregation schemes and different assumptions on the losses (exp-concave, mixable). Variants of the aggregating algorithm have been studied for classically mixable losses, with a tradeoff between tightness of the bound (in a constant factor) and the computational complexity . Weakly mixable losses are a generalisation of mixable losses. They have been studied in @cite_1 where it is shown there exists a variant of the aggregating algorithm that achives regret @math for some constant @math . [in .2] Vovk:2001 makes the observation that his Aggregating Algorithm reduces to Bayesian mixtures in the case of the log loss game. See also the discussion in [page 330] Cesa-Bianchi:2006 relating certain aggregation schemes to Bayesian updating.
@cite_1
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In this paper, a novel algorithm to blindly separate an instantaneous linear underdetermined mixture of nonstationary sources is proposed. It means that the number of sources exceeds the number of channels of the available data. The separation is based on the working assumption that the sources are piecewise stationary with a different variance in each block. It proceeds in two steps: 1) estimating the mixing matrix, and 2) computing the optimum beamformer in each block to maximize the signal-to-interference ratio of each separated signal with respect to the remaining signals. Estimating the mixing matrix is accomplished through a specialized tensor decomposition of the set of sample covariance matrices of the received mixture in each block. It utilizes optimum weighting, which allows statistically efficient (CRB attaining) estimation provided that the data obey the assumed Gaussian piecewise stationary model. In simulations, performance of the algorithm is successfully tested on blind separation of 16 speech signals from nine linear instantaneous mixtures of these signals. We consider algorithms for combining advice from a set of experts. In each trial, the algorithm receives the predictions of the experts and produces its own prediction. A loss function is applied to measure the discrepancy between the predictions and actual observations. The algorithm keeps a weight for each expert. At each trial the weights are first used to help produce the prediction and then updated according to the observed outcome. Our starting point is Vovk's Aggregating Algorithm, in which the weights have a simple form: the weight of an expert decreases exponentially as a function of the loss incurred by the expert. The prediction of the Aggregating Algorithm is typically a non-linear function of the weights and the experts' predictions. We analyze here a simplified algorithm in which the weights are as in the original Aggregating Algorithm, but the prediction is simply the weighted average of the experts' predictions. We show that for a large class of loss functions, even with the simplified prediction rule the additional loss of the algorithm over the loss of the best expert is at most c ln n, where n is the number of experts and c a constant that depends on the loss function. Thus, the bound is of the same form as the known bounds for the Aggregating Algorithm, although the constants here are not quite as good. We use relative entropy to rewrite the bounds in a stronger form and to motivate the update. We present an algorithm for the statistical learning setting with a bounded exp-concave loss in @math dimensions that obtains excess risk @math with probability at least @math . The core technique is to boost the confidence of recent in-expectation @math excess risk bounds for empirical risk minimization (ERM), without sacrificing the rate, by leveraging a Bernstein condition which holds due to exp-concavity. We also show that with probability @math the standard ERM method obtains excess risk @math . We further show that a regret bound for any online learner in this setting translates to a high probability excess risk bound for the corresponding online-to-batch conversion of the online learner. Lastly, we present two high probability bounds for the exp-concave model selection aggregation problem that are quantile-adaptive in a certain sense. The first bound is a purely exponential weights type algorithm, obtains a nearly optimal rate, and has no explicit dependence on the Lipschitz continuity of the loss. The second bound requires Lipschitz continuity but obtains the optimal rate. We analyze mixture density approximation and estimation. We form a convex set of density functions by taking the convex hull of a parametric family, e.g. mixtures of the Gaussian location family. A sequence of finite mixture densities is formulated to provide a parsimonious approximation for the target density. If the target density itself is in the convex hull, we show that the approximation error goes to zero with a rate of 1 k, where k is the number of components in the approximation. If the target density is outside of the convex hull, the approximation error is equal to the best achievable error plus a term that goes to zero with a rate of 1 k. A greedy algorithm that introduces one component at each step is shown to achieve such an error rate. Similarly, a greedy estimation algorithm is provided to find such approximation for data from an arbitrary density. This algorithm estimates one mixture component at one time. We prove that such an algorithm achieves a likelihood nearly as good as the MLE (maximum likelihood estimate) over the whole convex hull. And we identify the difference as being bounded by order O(1 k), where k is the number of components in the estimate. Risks of such estimators are shown to be bounded by a sum of approximation error and estimation error. The error terms are identified. An optimal choice of k can be derived by minimizing the risk bound. Acting as a similar role as the bandwidth in non-parainetric density estimation, k controls two error terms in opposite directions. A large k reduces approximation error and increases estimation error. A MDL (minimum description length) principle is derived to provide an estimation method for k. And the estimated k is shown to achieve the risk bound as if we know the best k in advance. A new information projection theory is derived to expand the approximating class to include its information closure. We prove the existence and uniqueness of a f* in the closure of the convex hull C (in a sense we identify), such that D ( fpf* ) = infg∈CD fpg , where Dfpg is the Kullback-Leibler divergence. And log(fk) → log(f*) in L1 (f) for any sequence fk in C with Dfpfk→ infg∈CD fpg. Other characterizing properties of f* are also given.