As advances in technology allow for the collection, storage, and analysis of vast amounts of data, the task of screening and assessing the significance of discovered patterns is becoming a major challenge in data mining applications. In this work, we address significance in the context of frequent itemset mining. Specifically, we develop a novel methodology to identify a meaningful support threshold s* for a dataset, such that the number of itemsets with support at least s* represents a substantial deviation from what would be expected in a random dataset with the same number of transactions and the same individual item frequencies. These itemsets can then be flagged as statistically significant with a small false discovery rate. We present extensive experimental results to substantiate the effectiveness of our methodology.
The problem of spurious discoveries in the mining of significant patterns is studied in @cite_24 . The paper is concerned with the discovery of significant pairs of items, where significance is measured through the @math -value, that is, the probability of occurrence of the observed support in a random dataset. Significant pairs are those whose @math -values are below a certain threshold that can be suitably chosen to bound the FWER, or to bound the FDR. The authors compare the relative power of the two metrics through experimental results, but do not provide methods to set a meaningful support threshold, which is the most prominent feature of our approach.
@cite_24
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The problem of spurious apparent patterns arising by chance is a fundamental one for pattern detection. Classical approaches, based on adjustments such as the Bonferroni procedure, are arguably not appropriate in a data mining context. Instead, methods based on the false discovery rate - the proportion of flagged patterns which do not represent an underlying reality - may be more relevant. We describe such procedures and illustrate their application on a marketing dataset. Let f be a random Boolean formula that is an instance of 3-SAT. We consider the problem of computing the least real number k such that if the ratio of the number of clauses over the number of variables of f strictly exceeds k , then f is almost certainly unsatisfiable. By a well-known and more or less straightforward argument, it can be shown that kF5.191. This upper bound was improved by to 4.758 by first providing new improved bounds for the occupancy problem. There is strong experimental evidence that the value of k is around 4.2. In this work, we define, in terms of the random formula f, a decreasing sequence of random variables such that, if the expected value of any one of them converges to zero, then f is almost certainly unsatisfiable. By letting the expected value of the first term of the sequence converge to zero, we obtain, by simple and elementary computations, an upper bound for k equal to 4.667. From the expected value of the second term of the sequence, we get the value 4.601q . In general, by letting the U This work was performed while the first author was visiting the School of Computer Science, Carleton Ž University, and was partially supported by NSERC Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council . of Canada , and by a grant from the University of Patras for sabbatical leaves. The second and third Ž authors were supported in part by grants from NSERC Natural Sciences and Engineering Research . Council of Canada . During the last stages of this research, the first and last authors were also partially Ž . supported by EU ESPRIT Long-Term Research Project ALCOM-IT Project No. 20244 . †An extended abstract of this paper was published in the Proceedings of the Fourth Annual European Ž Symposium on Algorithms, ESA’96, September 25]27, 1996, Barcelona, Spain Springer-Verlag, LNCS, . pp. 27]38 . That extended abstract was coauthored by the first three authors of the present paper. Correspondence to: L. M. Kirousis Q 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. CCC 1042-9832r98r030253-17 253 Discovering the most interesting patterns is the key problem in the field of pattern mining. While ranking or selecting patterns is well-studied for itemsets it is surprisingly under-researched for other, more complex, pattern types. In this paper we propose a new quality measure for episodes. An episode is essentially a set of events with possible restrictions on the order of events. We say that an episode is significant if its occurrence is abnormally compact, that is, only few gap events occur between the actual episode events, when compared to the expected length according to the independence model. We can apply this measure as a post-pruning step by first discovering frequent episodes and then rank them according to this measure. In order to compute the score we will need to compute the mean and the variance according to the independence model. As a main technical contribution we introduce a technique that allows us to compute these values. Such a task is surprisingly complex and in order to solve it we develop intricate finite state machines that allow us to compute the needed statistics. We also show that asymptotically our score can be interpreted as a @math P value. In our experiments we demonstrate that despite its intricacy our ranking is fast: we can rank tens of thousands episodes in seconds. Our experiments with text data demonstrate that our measure ranks interpretable episodes high. We investigate some pitfalls regarding the discriminatory power of MT evaluation metrics and the accuracy of statistical significance tests. In a discriminative reranking experiment for phrase-based SMT we show that the NIST metric is more sensitive than BLEU or F-score despite their incorporation of aspects of fluency or meaning adequacy into MT evaluation. In an experimental comparison of two statistical significance tests we show that p-values are estimated more conservatively by approximate randomization than by bootstrap tests, thus increasing the likelihood of type-I error for the latter. We point out a pitfall of randomly assessing significance in multiple pairwise comparisons, and conclude with a recommendation to combine NIST with approximate randomization, at more stringent rejection levels than is currently standard.