Developing knowledge-driven contemporaneous health index (CHI) that can precisely reflect the underlying patient across the course of the condition's progression holds a unique value, like facilitating a range of clinical decision-making opportunities. This is particularly important for monitoring degenerative condition such as Alzheimer's disease (AD), where the condition of the patient will decay over time. Detecting early symptoms and progression sign, and continuous severity evaluation, are all essential for disease management. While a few methods have been developed in the literature, uncertainty quantification of those health index models has been largely neglected. To ensure the continuity of the care, we should be more explicit about the level of confidence in model outputs. Ideally, decision-makers should be provided with recommendations that are robust in the face of substantial uncertainty about future outcomes. In this paper, we aim at filling this gap by developing an uncertainty quantification based contemporaneous longitudinal index, named UQ-CHI, with a particular focus on continuous patient monitoring of degenerative conditions. Our method is to combine convex optimization and Bayesian learning using the maximum entropy learning (MEL) framework, integrating uncertainty on labels as well. Our methodology also provides closed-form solutions in some important decision making tasks, e.g., such as predicting the label of a new sample. Numerical studies demonstrate the effectiveness of the propose UQ-CHI method in prediction accuracy, monitoring efficacy, and unique advantages if uncertainty quantification is enabled practice.
Let, @math , denote a training set of @math patients. Each measurement @math , is the value of the @math th variable for the @math th subject in a given time @math , where @math is the time index. our goal is, given a training set, convert each measurement @math into an health index @math , which requires a mathematical model of @math . For simplicity, multivariable form of the hypothesis function @math was studies in @cite_13 , i.e., @math , where @math is a vector of weight coefficients that combines the @math variables. The total number of positive and negative samples is shown by @math and @math respectively, i.e., @math and @math . The formulation of the CHI learning framework is shown in below:
@cite_13
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Let @math be a zero mean Gaussian vector and @math be a subset of @math . Suppose we are given @math i.i.d. replications of the vector @math . We propose a new test for testing that @math is independent of @math conditionally to @math against the general alternative that it is not. This procedure does not depend on any prior information on the covariance of @math or the variance of @math and applies in a high-dimensional setting. It straightforwardly extends to test the neighbourhood of a Gaussian graphical model. The procedure is based on a model of Gaussian regression with random Gaussian covariates. We give non asymptotic properties of the test and we prove that it is rate optimal (up to a possible @math factor) over various classes of alternatives under some additional assumptions. Besides, it allows us to derive non asymptotic minimax rates of testing in this setting. Finally, we carry out a simulation study in order to evaluate the performance of our procedure. Let @math denote the first passage time to 1 of a standard Brownian motion. It is well known that as @math goes to infinity, @math goes to zero at rate @math , where @math equals @math . The goal of this note is to establish a quantitative, infinite dimensional version of this result. Namely, we will prove the existence of positive and finite constants @math and @math , such that for all @math , @math where @math ' denotes the natural logarithm, and @math is the Fukushima-Malliavin capacity on the space of continuous functions. We investigate the approximability of several classes of real-valued functions by functions of a small number of variables ( juntas ). Our main results are tight bounds on the number of variables required to approximate a function @math within @math -error @math over the uniform distribution: 1. If @math is submodular, then it is @math -close to a function of @math variables. This is an exponential improvement over previously known results. We note that @math variables are necessary even for linear functions. 2. If @math is fractionally subadditive (XOS) it is @math -close to a function of @math variables. This result holds for all functions with low total @math -influence and is a real-valued analogue of Friedgut's theorem for boolean functions. We show that @math variables are necessary even for XOS functions. As applications of these results, we provide learning algorithms over the uniform distribution. For XOS functions, we give a PAC learning algorithm that runs in time @math . For submodular functions we give an algorithm in the more demanding PMAC learning model (Balcan and Harvey, 2011) which requires a multiplicative @math factor approximation with probability at least @math over the target distribution. Our uniform distribution algorithm runs in time @math . This is the first algorithm in the PMAC model that over the uniform distribution can achieve a constant approximation factor arbitrarily close to 1 for all submodular functions. As follows from the lower bounds in (, 2013) both of these algorithms are close to optimal. We also give applications for proper learning, testing and agnostic learning with value queries of these classes. This article offers a simplified approach to the distribution theory of randomly weighted averages or @math -means @math , for a sequence of i.i.d.random variables @math , and independent random weights @math with @math and @math . The collection of distributions of @math , indexed by distributions of @math , is shown to encode Kingman's partition structure derived from @math . For instance, if @math has Bernoulli @math distribution on @math , the @math th moment of @math is a polynomial function of @math which equals the probability generating function of the number @math of distinct values in a sample of size @math from @math : @math . This elementary identity illustrates a general moment formula for @math -means in terms of the partition structure associated with random samples from @math , first developed by Diaconis and Kemperman (1996) and Kerov (1998) in terms of random permutations. As shown by Tsilevich (1997) if the partition probabilities factorize in a way characteristic of the generalized Ewens sampling formula with two parameters @math , found by Pitman (1992), then the moment formula yields the Cauchy-Stieltjes transform of an @math mean. The analysis of these random means includes the characterization of @math -means, known as Dirichlet means, due to Von Neumann (1941), Watson (1956) and Cifarelli and Regazzini (1990) and generalizations of L 'evy's arcsine law for the time spent positive by a Brownian motion, due to Darling (1949) Lamperti (1958) and Barlow, Pitman and Yor (1989).