Today people increasingly have the opportunity to opt-in to "usage-based" automotive insurance programs for reducing insurance premiums. In these programs, participants install devices in their vehicles that monitor their driving behavior, which raises some privacy concerns. Some devices collect fine-grained speed data to monitor driving habits. Companies that use these devices claim that their approach is privacy-preserving because speedometer measurements do not have physical locations. However, we show that with knowledge of the user's home location, as the insurance companies have, speed data is sufficient to discover driving routes and destinations when trip data is collected over a period of weeks. To demonstrate the real-world applicability of our approach we applied our algorithm, elastic pathing, to data collected over hundreds of driving trips occurring over several months. With this data and our approach, we were able to predict trip destinations to within 250 meters of ground truth in 10 of the traces and within 500 meters in 20 of the traces. This result, combined with the amount of speed data that is being collected by insurance companies, constitutes a substantial breach of privacy because a person's regular driving pattern can be deduced with repeated examples of the same paths with just a few weeks of monitoring.
Based on analysis of location data, such as mobile phone cell tower locations, researchers have shown 1) the nature of individual mobility patterns is bounded, and that humans visit only a few locations most of the time (e.g., just two @cite_26 @cite_49 @cite_27 ); 2) that there is high level of predictability for future and current locations (e.g. @cite_11 @cite_6 -- most trivially, 70 visited location coincides with the user's actual location'' @cite_11 ); and 3) that mobility patterns can also be used to predict social network ties (e.g, @cite_44 ). In a more applied domain, GPS traces have been used to learn transportation modes (e.g. walking, in a bus, or driving) @cite_34 , for predicting turns, route, and destination @cite_40 , for predicting family routines (e.g. picking up or dropping of children to activities) @cite_42 , probabilistic models describing when people are home or away @cite_46 , and recommending friends and locations @cite_30 . However, none of the above work can be used to discover locations based solely on speedometer measurements and a user's starting location.
@cite_30 @cite_26 @cite_42 @cite_6 @cite_44 @cite_27 @cite_40 @cite_49 @cite_46 @cite_34 @cite_11
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Location is a key context ingredient and many existing pervasive applications rely on the current locations of their users. However, with the ability to predict the future location and movement behavior of a user, the usability of these applications can be greatly improved. In this paper, we propose an approach to predict both the intended destination and the future route of a person. Rather than predicting the destination and future route separately, we have focused on making prediction in an integrated way by exploiting personal movement data (i.e. trajectories) collected by GPS. Since trajectories contain daily whereabouts information of a person, the proposed approach first detects the significant places where the person may depart from or go to using a clustering-based algorithm called FBM (Forward-Backward Matching), then abstracts the trajectories based on a space partitioning method, and finally extracts movement patterns from the abstracted trajectories using an extended CRPM (Continuous Route Pattern Mining) algorithm. Extracted movement patterns are organized in terms of origin-destination couples. The prediction is made based on a pattern tree built from these movement patterns. With the real personal movement data of 14 participants, we conducted a number of experiments to evaluate the performance of our system. The results show that our approach can achieve approximately 80 and 60 accuracy in destination prediction and 1-step prediction, respectively, and result in an average deviation of approximately 60 m in continuous future route prediction. Finally, based on the proposed approach, we implemented a prototype running on mobile phones, which can extract patterns from a user's historical movement data and predict the destination and future route. In this work, we discover the daily location-driven routines that are contained in a massive real-life human dataset collected by mobile phones. Our goal is the discovery and analysis of human routines that characterize both individual and group behaviors in terms of location patterns. We develop an unsupervised methodology based on two differing probabilistic topic models and apply them to the daily life of 97 mobile phone users over a 16-month period to achieve these goals. Topic models are probabilistic generative models for documents that identify the latent structure that underlies a set of words. Routines dominating the entire group's activities, identified with a methodology based on the Latent Dirichlet Allocation topic model, include “going to work late”, “going home early”, “working nonstop” and “having no reception (phone off)” at different times over varying time-intervals. We also detect routines which are characteristic of users, with a methodology based on the Author-Topic model. With the routines discovered, and the two methods of characterizing days and users, we can then perform various tasks. We use the routines discovered to determine behavioral patterns of users and groups of users. For example, we can find individuals that display specific daily routines, such as “going to work early” or “turning off the mobile (or having no reception) in the evenings”. We are also able to characterize daily patterns by determining the topic structure of days in addition to determining whether certain routines occur dominantly on weekends or weekdays. Furthermore, the routines discovered can be used to rank users or find subgroups of users who display certain routines. We can also characterize users based on their entropy. We compare our method to one based on clustering using K-means. Finally, we analyze an individual's routines over time to determine regions with high variations, which may correspond to specific events. User mobility has given rise to a variety of Web applications, in which the global positioning system (GPS) plays many important roles in bridging between these applications and end users. As a kind of human behavior, transportation modes, such as walking and driving, can provide pervasive computing systems with more contextual information and enrich a user's mobility with informative knowledge. In this article, we report on an approach based on supervised learning to automatically infer users' transportation modes, including driving, walking, taking a bus and riding a bike, from raw GPS logs. Our approach consists of three parts: a change point-based segmentation method, an inference model and a graph-based post-processing algorithm. First, we propose a change point-based segmentation method to partition each GPS trajectory into separate segments of different transportation modes. Second, from each segment, we identify a set of sophisticated features, which are not affected by differing traffic conditions (e.g., a person's direction when in a car is constrained more by the road than any change in traffic conditions). Later, these features are fed to a generative inference model to classify the segments of different modes. Third, we conduct graph-based postprocessing to further improve the inference performance. This postprocessing algorithm considers both the commonsense constraints of the real world and typical user behaviors based on locations in a probabilistic manner. The advantages of our method over the related works include three aspects. (1) Our approach can effectively segment trajectories containing multiple transportation modes. (2) Our work mined the location constraints from user-generated GPS logs, while being independent of additional sensor data and map information like road networks and bus stops. (3) The model learned from the dataset of some users can be applied to infer GPS data from others. Using the GPS logs collected by 65 people over a period of 10 months, we evaluated our approach via a set of experiments. As a result, based on the change-point-based segmentation method and Decision Tree-based inference model, we achieved prediction accuracy greater than 71 percent. Further, using the graph-based post-processing algorithm, the performance attained a 4-percent enhancement. Nowadays, human movement in urban spaces can be traced digitally in many cases. It can be observed that movement patterns are not constant, but vary across time and space. In this work, we characterize such spatio-temporal patterns with an innovative combination of two separate approaches that have been utilized for studying human mobility in the past. First, by using non-negative tensor factorization (NTF), we are able to cluster human behavior based on spatio-temporal dimensions. Second, for characterizing these clusters, we propose to use HypTrails, a Bayesian approach for expressing and comparing hypotheses about human trails. To formalize hypotheses, we utilize publicly available Web data (i.e., Foursquare and census data). By studying taxi data in Manhattan, we can discover and characterize human mobility patterns that cannot be identified in a collective analysis. As one example, we find a group of taxi rides that end at locations with a high number of party venues on weekend nights. Our findings argue for a more fine-grained analysis of human mobility in order to make informed decisions for e.g., enhancing urban structures, tailored traffic control and location-based recommender systems.