Author(s): Zhang, Yuqian; Bradic, Jelena | Abstract: We provide a high-dimensional semi-supervised inference framework focused on the mean and variance of the response. Our data are comprised of an extensive set of observations regarding the covariate vectors and a much smaller set of labeled observations where we observe both the response as well as the covariates. We allow the size of the covariates to be much larger than the sample size and impose weak conditions on a statistical form of the data. We provide new estimators of the mean and variance of the response that extend some of the recent results presented in low-dimensional models. In particular, at times we will not necessitate consistent estimation of the functional form of the data. Together with estimation of the population mean and variance, we provide their asymptotic distribution and confidence intervals where we showcase gains in efficiency compared to the sample mean and variance. Our procedure, with minor modifications, is then presented to make important contributions regarding inference about average treatment effects. We also investigate the robustness of estimation and coverage and showcase widespread applicability and generality of the proposed method.
Several papers use generalized methods for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects as well as treatment effect size. Random forests approaches appear in @cite_0 . Other related approaches include those of @cite_6 and @cite_26 , which build learners of sorts that can conform to many types of nonparametric or machine learning methods; however, these papers do not analyze semi-supervised settings and possible improvements therein over using labeled observations only. In improving treatment effects estimates over the labeled observations, we follow our work on semi-supervised estimation of the mean closely whereas for the case of treatment effect size we build further on our work on semi-supervised estimation of the variance of the responses. As we will show we can achieve asymptotic normality under relaxed assumptions, in particular, a consistent estimation is no longer needed for both of the unknowns; one consistency suffices.
@cite_0 @cite_26 @cite_6
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In this paper we propose methods for estimating heterogeneity in causal effects in experimental and observational studies and for conducting hypothesis tests about the magnitude of differences in treatment effects across subsets of the population. We provide a data-driven approach to partition the data into subpopulations that differ in the magnitude of their treatment effects. The approach enables the construction of valid confidence intervals for treatment effects, even with many covariates relative to the sample size, and without “sparsity” assumptions. We propose an “honest” approach to estimation, whereby one sample is used to construct the partition and another to estimate treatment effects for each subpopulation. Our approach builds on regression tree methods, modified to optimize for goodness of fit in treatment effects and to account for honest estimation. Our model selection criterion anticipates that bias will be eliminated by honest estimation and also accounts for the effect of making additional splits on the variance of treatment effect estimates within each subpopulation. We address the challenge that the “ground truth” for a causal effect is not observed for any individual unit, so that standard approaches to cross-validation must be modified. Through a simulation study, we show that for our preferred method honest estimation results in nominal coverage for 90 confidence intervals, whereas coverage ranges between 74 and 84 for nonhonest approaches. Honest estimation requires estimating the model with a smaller sample size; the cost in terms of mean squared error of treatment effects for our preferred method ranges between 7–22 . Many scientific and engineering challenges -- ranging from personalized medicine to customized marketing recommendations -- require an understanding of treatment effect heterogeneity. In this paper, we develop a non-parametric causal forest for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects that extends Breiman's widely used random forest algorithm. In the potential outcomes framework with unconfoundedness, we show that causal forests are pointwise consistent for the true treatment effect, and have an asymptotically Gaussian and centered sampling distribution. We also discuss a practical method for constructing asymptotic confidence intervals for the true treatment effect that are centered at the causal forest estimates. Our theoretical results rely on a generic Gaussian theory for a large family of random forest algorithms. To our knowledge, this is the first set of results that allows any type of random forest, including classification and regression forests, to be used for provably valid statistical inference. In experiments, we find causal forests to be substantially more powerful than classical methods based on nearest-neighbor matching, especially in the presence of irrelevant covariates. AbstractMany scientific and engineering challenges—ranging from personalized medicine to customized marketing recommendations—require an understanding of treatment effect heterogeneity. In this paper, we develop a non-parametric causal forest for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects that extends Breiman's widely used random forest algorithm. In the potential outcomes framework with unconfoundedness, we show that causal forests are pointwise consistent for the true treatment effect, and have an asymptotically Gaussian and centered sampling distribution. We also discuss a practical method for constructing asymptotic confidence intervals for the true treatment effect that are centered at the causal forest estimates. Our theoretical results rely on a generic Gaussian theory for a large family of random forest algorithms. To our knowledge, this is the first set of results that allows any type of random forest, including classification and regression forests, to be used for provably valid statistical infe... The recently proposed semi-supervised learning methods exploit consistency loss between different predictions under random perturbations. Typically, a student model is trained to predict consistently with the targets generated by a noisy teacher. However, they ignore the fact that not all training data provide meaningful and reliable information in terms of consistency. For misclassified data, blindly minimizing the consistency loss around them can hinder learning. In this paper, we propose a novel certainty-driven consistency loss (CCL) to dynamically select data samples that have relatively low uncertainty. Specifically, we measure the variance or entropy of multiple predictions under random augmentations and dropout as an estimation of uncertainty. Then, we introduce two approaches, i.e. Filtering CCL and Temperature CCL to guide the student learn more meaningful and certain reliable targets, and hence improve the quality of the gradients backpropagated to the student. Experiments demonstrate the advantages of the proposed method over the state-of-the-art semi-supervised deep learning methods on three benchmark datasets: SVHN, CIFAR10, and CIFAR100. Our method also shows robustness to noisy labels.