Temporal point process is widely used for sequential data modeling. In this paper, we focus on the problem of modeling sequential event propagation in graph, such as retweeting by social network users, news transmitting between websites, etc. Given a collection of event propagation sequences, conventional point process model consider only the event history, i.e. embed event history into a vector, not the latent graph structure. We propose a Graph Biased Temporal Point Process (GBTPP) leveraging the structural information from graph representation learning, where the direct influence between nodes and indirect influence from event history is modeled respectively. Moreover, the learned node embedding vector is also integrated into the embedded event history as side information. Experiments on a synthetic dataset and two real-world datasets show the efficacy of our model compared to conventional methods and state-of-the-art.
Traditional TPP models are modeled by parametric forms involving manual design of conditional intensity function @math depicting event occurrence rate over time, which measures the instantaneous event occurrence rate at time @math . A few popular examples include: Poisson process @cite_25 : the basic form is history independent @math which can be dated back to the 1900's; Reinforced Poisson processes @cite_19 : the model captures the rich-get-richer' mechanism by @math where @math mimics the aging effect while @math is the accumulation of history events; Self-exciting process (Hawkes process) @cite_16 : it provides an additive model to capture the self-exciting effect from history events @math ; Reactive point process @cite_21 : generalization to the Hawkes process by adding a self-inhibiting term to account for the inhibiting effects from history @math .
@cite_19 @cite_16 @cite_21 @cite_25
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Determinantal point processes (DPP) serve as a practicable modeling for many applications of repulsive point processes. A known approach for simulation was proposed in Hough(2006) , which generate the desired distribution point wise through rejection sampling. Unfortunately, the size of rejection could be very large. In this paper, we investigate the application of perfect simulation via coupling from the past (CFTP) on DPP. We give a general framework for perfect simulation on DPP model. It is shown that the limiting sequence of the time-to-coalescence of the coupling is bounded by @math An application is given to the stationary models in DPP. Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the University of Washington Reactive point processes (RPPs) are a new statistical model designed for predicting discrete events in time, based on past history. RPPs were developed to handle an important problem within the domain of electrical grid reliability: short term prediction of electrical grid failures (“manhole events”), including outages, fires, explosions, and smoking manholes, which can cause threats to public safety and reliability of electrical service in cities. RPPs incorporate self-exciting, self-regulating, and saturating components. The self-excitement occurs as a result of a past event, which causes a temporary rise in vulnerability to future events. The self-regulation occurs as a result of an external inspection which temporarily lowers vulnerability to future events. RPPs can saturate when too many events or inspections occur close together, which ensures that the probability of an event stays within a realistic range. Two of the operational challenges for power companies are i) making continuous-time failure predictions, and ii) cost benefit analysis for decision making and proactive maintenance. RPPs are naturally suited for handling both of these challenges. We use the model to predict power-grid failures in Manhattan over a short term horizon, and use to provide a cost benefit analysis of different proactive maintenance programs. Large volumes of event data are becoming increasingly available in a wide variety of applications, such as healthcare analytics, smart cities and social network analysis. The precise time interval or the exact distance between two events carries a great deal of information about the dynamics of the underlying systems. These characteristics make such data fundamentally different from independently and identically distributed data and time-series data where time and space are treated as indexes rather than random variables. Marked temporal point processes are the mathematical framework for modeling event data with covariates. However, typical point process models often make strong assumptions about the generative processes of the event data, which may or may not reflect the reality, and the specifically fixed parametric assumptions also have restricted the expressive power of the respective processes. Can we obtain a more expressive model of marked temporal point processes? How can we learn such a model from massive data? In this paper, we propose the Recurrent Marked Temporal Point Process (RMTPP) to simultaneously model the event timings and the markers. The key idea of our approach is to view the intensity function of a temporal point process as a nonlinear function of the history, and use a recurrent neural network to automatically learn a representation of influences from the event history. We develop an efficient stochastic gradient algorithm for learning the model parameters which can readily scale up to millions of events. Using both synthetic and real world datasets, we show that, in the case where the true models have parametric specifications, RMTPP can learn the dynamics of such models without the need to know the actual parametric forms; and in the case where the true models are unknown, RMTPP can also learn the dynamics and achieve better predictive performance than other parametric alternatives based on particular prior assumptions. Event sequence, asynchronously generated with random timestamp, is ubiquitous among applications. The precise and arbitrary timestamp can carry important clues about the underlying dynamics, and has lent the event data fundamentally different from the time-series whereby series is indexed with fixed and equal time interval. One expressive mathematical tool for modeling event is point process. The intensity functions of many point processes involve two components: the background and the effect by the history. Due to its inherent spontaneousness, the background can be treated as a time series while the other need to handle the history events. In this paper, we model the background by a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) with its units aligned with time series indexes while the history effect is modeled by another RNN whose units are aligned with asynchronous events to capture the long-range dynamics. The whole model with event type and timestamp prediction output layers can be trained end-to-end. Our approach takes an RNN perspective to point process, and models its background and history effect. For utility, our method allows a black-box treatment for modeling the intensity which is often a pre-defined parametric form in point processes. Meanwhile end-to-end training opens the venue for reusing existing rich techniques in deep network for point process modeling. We apply our model to the predictive maintenance problem using a log dataset by more than 1000 ATMs from a global bank headquartered in North America.