Multiple hypotheses testing is a core problem in statistical inference and arises in almost every scientific field. Given a sequence of null hypotheses @math , Benjamini and Hochberg benjamini1995controlling introduced the false discovery rate (FDR) criterion, which is the expected proportion of false positives among rejected null hypotheses, and proposed a testing procedure that controls FDR below a pre-assigned significance level. They also proposed a different criterion, called mFDR, which does not control a property of the realized set of tests; rather it controls the ratio of expected number of false discoveries to the expected number of discoveries. In this paper, we propose two procedures for multiple hypotheses testing that we will call "LOND" and "LORD". These procedures control FDR and mFDR in an . Concretely, we consider an ordered --possibly infinite-- sequence of null hypotheses @math where, at each step @math , the statistician must decide whether to reject hypothesis @math having access only to the previous decisions. To the best of our knowledge, our work is the first that controls FDR in this setting. This model was introduced by Foster and Stine alpha-investing whose alpha-investing rule only controls mFDR in online manner. In order to compare different procedures, we develop lower bounds on the total discovery rate under the mixture model and prove that both LOND and LORD have nearly linear number of discoveries. We further propose adjustment to LOND to address arbitrary correlation among the @math -values. Finally, we evaluate the performance of our procedures on both synthetic and real data comparing them with alpha-investing rule, Benjamin-Hochberg method and a Bonferroni procedure.
To the best of our knowledge, the only procedure that compares with the ones we develop is the ForwardStop rule of @cite_3 . Note, however, that this approach falls short of addressing the issues we consider, for several reasons. @math It is not online, at least in the form presented in @cite_3 since it reject the first @math null hypotheses, where @math depends on all the @math -values. @math It requires knowledge of all past @math -values (not only discovery events) to compute the current score. @math Since it is constrained to reject all hypotheses before @math , and accept them after, it cannot achieve any discovery rate increasing with @math , let alone nearly linear in @math . For instance in the mixture model of Section , if the fraction of true non-null is @math , then ForwardStop achieves @math discoveries out of @math true non-null. In other words its power is of order @math in this simple case (no matter what is the strength of the signal for non-null hypotheses).
@cite_3
2026924428 2949962875 2000931246 2950958145
where (an)n ENo is some sequence of nonnegative numbers, (Sn),nENo is the sequence of partial sums, S0 = 0, Sn = XflXk, of another sequence (Xk)kEN of i.i.d. random variables, and A c R is a fixed Borel set such as [0,1] or [0, oo). Examples of such convolution series are subordinated distributions (f=0Oan = 1) which arise as distributions of random sums, and harmonic and ordinary renewal measures (a0 = 0, an = 1 n for all n C N in the first, an = 1 for all n C NO in the second case). These examples are in turn essential for the analysis of the large time behaviour of diverse applied models such as branching and queueing processes, they are also of interest in connection with representation theorems such as the Levy representation of infinitely divisible distributions. A traditional approach to such problems is via regular variation: If the underlying random variables are nonnegative we can use Laplace transforms and the related Abelian and Tauberian theorems [see, e.g., Stam (1973) in the context of subordination and Feller (1971, XIV.3) in connection with renewal theory; Embrechts, Maejima, and Omey (1984) is a recent treatment of generalized renewal measures along these lines]. The approach of the present paper is based on the Wiener-Levy-Gel'fand theorem and has occasionally been called the Banach algebra method. In Gruibel (1983) we gave a new variant of this method for the special case of lattice distributions, showing that by using the appropriate Banach algebras of sequences, arbitrarily fine expansions are possible under certain assumptions on the higher-order differences of (P(X1 = n))fnEN. Here we give a corresponding treatment of nonlattice distributions. We restrict ourselves to an analogue of first-order differences and obtain a number of theorems which perhaps are described best as next-term results. To explain this let us consider a special case in more detail. In sparse principal component analysis we are given noisy observations of a low-rank matrix of dimension @math and seek to reconstruct it under additional sparsity assumptions. In particular, we assume here each of the principal components @math has at most @math non-zero entries. We are particularly interested in the high dimensional regime wherein @math is comparable to, or even much larger than @math . In an influential paper, johnstone2004sparse introduced a simple algorithm that estimates the support of the principal vectors @math by the largest entries in the diagonal of the empirical covariance. This method can be shown to identify the correct support with high probability if @math , and to fail with high probability if @math for two constants @math . Despite a considerable amount of work over the last ten years, no practical algorithm exists with provably better support recovery guarantees. Here we analyze a covariance thresholding algorithm that was recently proposed by KrauthgamerSPCA . On the basis of numerical simulations (for the rank-one case), these authors conjectured that covariance thresholding correctly recover the support with high probability for @math (assuming @math of the same order as @math ). We prove this conjecture, and in fact establish a more general guarantee including higher-rank as well as @math much smaller than @math . Recent lower bounds berthet2013computational, ma2015sum suggest that no polynomial time algorithm can do significantly better. The key technical component of our analysis develops new bounds on the norm of kernel random matrices, in regimes that were not considered before. Let f be a random Boolean formula that is an instance of 3-SAT. We consider the problem of computing the least real number k such that if the ratio of the number of clauses over the number of variables of f strictly exceeds k , then f is almost certainly unsatisfiable. By a well-known and more or less straightforward argument, it can be shown that kF5.191. This upper bound was improved by to 4.758 by first providing new improved bounds for the occupancy problem. There is strong experimental evidence that the value of k is around 4.2. In this work, we define, in terms of the random formula f, a decreasing sequence of random variables such that, if the expected value of any one of them converges to zero, then f is almost certainly unsatisfiable. By letting the expected value of the first term of the sequence converge to zero, we obtain, by simple and elementary computations, an upper bound for k equal to 4.667. From the expected value of the second term of the sequence, we get the value 4.601q . In general, by letting the U This work was performed while the first author was visiting the School of Computer Science, Carleton Ž University, and was partially supported by NSERC Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council . of Canada , and by a grant from the University of Patras for sabbatical leaves. The second and third Ž authors were supported in part by grants from NSERC Natural Sciences and Engineering Research . Council of Canada . During the last stages of this research, the first and last authors were also partially Ž . supported by EU ESPRIT Long-Term Research Project ALCOM-IT Project No. 20244 . †An extended abstract of this paper was published in the Proceedings of the Fourth Annual European Ž Symposium on Algorithms, ESA’96, September 25]27, 1996, Barcelona, Spain Springer-Verlag, LNCS, . pp. 27]38 . That extended abstract was coauthored by the first three authors of the present paper. Correspondence to: L. M. Kirousis Q 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. CCC 1042-9832r98r030253-17 253 We consider the problem of selecting the best subset of exactly @math columns from an @math matrix @math . We present and analyze a novel two-stage algorithm that runs in @math time and returns as output an @math matrix @math consisting of exactly @math columns of @math . In the first (randomized) stage, the algorithm randomly selects @math columns according to a judiciously-chosen probability distribution that depends on information in the top- @math right singular subspace of @math . In the second (deterministic) stage, the algorithm applies a deterministic column-selection procedure to select and return exactly @math columns from the set of columns selected in the first stage. Let @math be the @math matrix containing those @math columns, let @math denote the projection matrix onto the span of those columns, and let @math denote the best rank- @math approximation to the matrix @math . Then, we prove that, with probability at least 0.8, @math This Frobenius norm bound is only a factor of @math worse than the best previously existing existential result and is roughly @math better than the best previous algorithmic result for the Frobenius norm version of this Column Subset Selection Problem (CSSP). We also prove that, with probability at least 0.8, @math This spectral norm bound is not directly comparable to the best previously existing bounds for the spectral norm version of this CSSP. Our bound depends on @math , whereas previous results depend on @math ; if these two quantities are comparable, then our bound is asymptotically worse by a @math factor.