An active area of research is to increase the safety of self-driving vehicles. Although safety cannot be guarenteed completely, the capability of a vehicle to predict the future trajectories of its surrounding vehicles could help ensure this notion of safety to a greater deal. We cast the trajectory forecast problem in a multi-time step forecasting problem and develop a Convolutional Neural Network based approach to learn from trajectory sequences generated from completely raw dataset in real-time. Results show improvement over baselines.
Several recent studies have addressed the problem of vehicle trajectory forecasting. A survey of previous work could be found in @cite_10 . Previous approaches can be grouped into two major classes. The first class of approaches treat the trajectory forecasting as a time series classification task where the aim is to assign class labels such as turn left, right or stay in lane for the trajectories. For such classification, Markov based models @cite_23 and Support Vector Machines have been adopted @cite_1 . Moreover, Neural Networks were also used in this direction where a probabilistic multilayer perceptron based approach is proposed in @cite_3 to model how likely a vehicle is to follow a particular trajectory or a lane for a given input of vehicle position history. Furthermore, the Long short term memory (LSTM) network was also investigated in @cite_18 where a framework for activity classification of on-road vehicles using 3D trajectory cues was proposed. @cite_9 also follows a classification objective where an LSTM model is trained with sequence data to produce softmax probabilities of future vehicle position on the grid.
@cite_18 @cite_9 @cite_1 @cite_3 @cite_23 @cite_10
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In this paper, we propose an efficient vehicle trajectory prediction framework based on recurrent neural network. Basically, the characteristic of the vehicle's trajectory is different from that of regular moving objects since it is affected by various latent factors including road structure, traffic rules, and driver's intention. Previous state of the art approaches use sophisticated vehicle behavior model describing these factors and derive the complex trajectory prediction algorithm, which requires a system designer to conduct intensive model optimization for practical use. Our approach is data-driven and simple to use in that it learns complex behavior of the vehicles from the massive amount of trajectory data through deep neural network model. The proposed trajectory prediction method employs the recurrent neural network called long short-term memory (LSTM) to analyze the temporal behavior and predict the future coordinate of the surrounding vehicles. The proposed scheme feeds the sequence of vehicles' coordinates obtained from sensor measurements to the LSTM and produces the probabilistic information on the future location of the vehicles over occupancy grid map. The experiments conducted using the data collected from highway driving show that the proposed method can produce reasonably good estimate of future trajectory. In this paper, we propose a deep learning-based vehicle trajectory prediction technique which can generate the future trajectory sequence of the surrounding vehicles in real time. We employ the encoder-decoder architecture which analyzes the pattern underlying in the past trajectory using the long short term memory (LSTM)-based encoder and generates the future trajectory sequence using the LSTM-based decoder. This structure produces the @math most likely trajectory candidates over occupancy grid map by employing the beam search technique which keeps the @math locally best candidates from the decoder output. The experiments conducted on highway traffic scenarios show that the prediction accuracy of the proposed method is significantly higher than the conventional trajectory prediction techniques. This paper presents a novel 3DOF pedestrian trajectory prediction approach for autonomous mobile service robots. While most previously reported methods are based on learning of 2D positions in monocular camera images, our approach uses range-finder sensors to learn and predict 3DOF pose trajectories (i.e. 2D position plus 1D rotation within the world coordinate system). Our approach, T-Pose-LSTM (Temporal 3DOF-Pose Long-Short-Term Memory), is trained using long-term data from real-world robot deployments and aims to learn context-dependent (environment- and time-specific) human activities. Our approach incorporates long-term temporal information (i.e. date and time) with short-term pose observations as input. A sequence-to-sequence LSTM encoder-decoder is trained, which encodes observations into LSTM and then decodes as predictions. For deployment, it can perform on-the-fly prediction in real-time. Instead of using manually annotated data, we rely on a robust human detection, tracking and SLAM system, providing us with examples in a global coordinate system. We validate the approach using more than 15K pedestrian trajectories recorded in a care home environment over a period of three months. The experiment shows that the proposed T-Pose-LSTM model advances the state-of-the-art 2D-based method for human trajectory prediction in long-term mobile robot deployments. For safe and reliable autonomous driving systems, prediction of surrounding vehicles' future behavior and potential risks are critical. The state-of-the-art prediction algorithms tend to show limited performance on long-term predictions due to their deterministic nature. In this paper, a probabilistic lateral motion prediction algorithm is proposed based on multilayer perceptron (MLP) approach. The MLP model consists of two parts; target lane and trajectory models. In order to develop an intuitive and accurate prediction algorithm, a lane-based trajectory prediction model is introduced based on the fact that vehicles drive within a lane except for during lane changes. More specifically, a set of three representative trajectories with different levels of lane-change positions are generated for each target lane, and real-world traffic data is categorized by each trajectory for MLP training. These target lane and trajectory models enable the stochastic MLP modeling and training. The proposed MLP model outputs probabilities of how likely a vehicle will follow each trajectory and each lane for a given input of vehicle position history including current position. For training the MLP model, Next Generation Simulation traffic data are used. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm detects lane-changes one to one and a half second earlier than existing methods and three seconds before lane crossing with about ninety percentages accuracy.