Selective inference is a recent research topic that tries to perform valid inference after using the data to select a reasonable statistical model. We propose MAGIC, a new method for selective inference that is general, powerful and tractable. MAGIC is a method for selective inference after solving a convex optimization problem with smooth loss and @math penalty. Randomization is incorporated into the optimization problem to boost statistical power. Through reparametrization, MAGIC reduces the problem into a sampling problem with simple constraints. MAGIC applies to many @math penalized optimization problem including the Lasso, logistic Lasso and neighborhood selection in graphical models, all of which we consider in this paper.
In the post selection literature, the authors in @cite_3 proposed the PoSI approach, which reduce the problem to a simultaneous inference problem. Because of the simultaneity, it prevents data snooping from any selection procedure, but also results in more conservative inference. In addition, the PoSI method has extremely high computational cost, and is only applicable when the dimension @math or for very sparse models. The authors proposed a method for computing p-values that controls false discovery rate (FDR) among all variables. This is quite different from the hypothesis testing framework of this work, as the hypotheses tested in selective inference are chosen as a function of the data. Hence, the hypotheses tested are not directly comparable. Furthermore, compared with @cite_7 , MAGIC has the advantage of being able to construct confidence intervals for the selected variables.
@cite_7 @cite_3
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We propose robust methods for inference on the effect of a treatment variable on a scalar outcome in the presence of very many controls. Our setting is a partially linear model with possibly non-Gaussian and heteroscedastic disturbances. Our analysis allows the number of controls to be much larger than the sample size. To make informative inference feasible, we require the model to be approximately sparse; that is, we require that the effect of confounding factors can be controlled for up to a small approximation error by conditioning on a relatively small number of controls whose identities are unknown. The latter condition makes it possible to estimate the treatment effect by selecting approximately the right set of controls. We develop a novel estimation and uniformly valid inference method for the treatment effect in this setting, called the "post-double-selection" method. Our results apply to Lasso-type methods used for covariate selection as well as to any other model selection method that is able to find a sparse model with good approximation properties. The main attractive feature of our method is that it allows for imperfect selection of the controls and provides confidence intervals that are valid uniformly across a large class of models. In contrast, standard post-model selection estimators fail to provide uniform inference even in simple cases with a small, fixed number of controls. Thus our method resolves the problem of uniform inference after model selection for a large, interesting class of models. We illustrate the use of the developed methods with numerical simulations and an application to the effect of abortion on crime rates. The observations in many applications consist of counts of discrete events, such as photons hitting a dector, which cannot be effectively modeled using an additive bounded or Gaussian noise model, and instead require a Poisson noise model. As a result, accurate reconstruction of a spatially or temporally distributed phenomenon (f) from Poisson data (y) cannot be accomplished by minimizing a conventional l 2 - l 1 objective function. The problem addressed in this paper is the estimation of f from y in an inverse problem setting, where (a) the number of unknowns may potentially be larger than the number of observations and (b) f admits a sparse approximation in some basis. The optimization formulation considered in this paper uses a negative Poisson log-likelihood objective function with nonnegativity constraints (since Poisson intensities are naturally nonnegative). This paper describes computational methods for solving the constrained sparse Poisson inverse problem. In particular, the proposed approach incorporates key ideas of using quadratic separable approximations to the objective function at each iteration and computationally efficient partition-based multiscale estimation methods. It is common practice in statistical data analysis to perform data-driven variable selection and derive statistical inference from the resulting model. Such inference enjoys none of the guarantees that classical statistical theory provides for tests and confidence intervals when the model has been chosen a priori. We propose to produce valid post-selection inference'' by reducing the problem to one of simultaneous inference and hence suitably widening conventional confidence and retention intervals. Simultaneity is required for all linear functions that arise as coefficient estimates in all submodels. By purchasing simultaneity insurance'' for all possible submodels, the resulting post-selection inference is rendered universally valid under all possible model selection procedures. This inference is therefore generally conservative for particular selection procedures, but it is always less conservative than full Scheffe protection. Importantly it does not depend on the truth of the selected submodel, and hence it produces valid inference even in wrong models. We describe the structure of the simultaneous inference problem and give some asymptotic results. In many fields of science, we observe a response variable together with a large number of potential explanatory variables, and would like to be able to discover which variables are truly associated with the response. At the same time, we need to know that the false discovery rate (FDR) - the expected fraction of false discoveries among all discoveries - is not too high, in order to assure the scientist that most of the discoveries are indeed true and replicable. This paper introduces the knockoff filter, a new variable selection procedure controlling the FDR in the statistical linear model whenever there are at least as many observations as variables. This method achieves exact FDR control in finite sample settings no matter the design or covariates, the number of variables in the model, or the amplitudes of the unknown regression coefficients, and does not require any knowledge of the noise level. As the name suggests, the method operates by manufacturing knockoff variables that are cheap - their construction does not require any new data - and are designed to mimic the correlation structure found within the existing variables, in a way that allows for accurate FDR control, beyond what is possible with permutation-based methods. The method of knockoffs is very general and flexible, and can work with a broad class of test statistics. We test the method in combination with statistics from the Lasso for sparse regression, and obtain empirical results showing that the resulting method has far more power than existing selection rules when the proportion of null variables is high.