This paper discusses a novel initialization algorithm for the estimation of nonlinear state-space models. Good initial values for the model parameters are obtained by identifying separately the linear dynamics and the nonlinear terms in the model. In particular, the nonlinear dynamic problem is transformed into an approximate static formulation, and simple regression methods are applied to obtain the solution in a fast and efficient way. The proposed method is validated by means of two measurement examples: the Wiener-Hammerstein benchmark problem and the identification of a crystal detector.
Other examples of techniques that employ the EM algorithm in a maximum likelihood framework, and that use particle smoothing are presented in @cite_2 and @cite_16 . The same authors propose in @cite_27 a different approach that makes use of Fisher's identity and particle smoothing for gradient computation.
@cite_27 @cite_16 @cite_2
2962737134 2134199473 2567948266 2011277999
We develop a general framework for proving rigorous guarantees on the performance of the EM algorithm and a variant known as gradient EM. Our analysis is divided into two parts: a treatment of these algorithms at the population level (in the limit of infinite data), followed by results that apply to updates based on a finite set of samples. First, we characterize the domain of attraction of any global maximizer of the population likelihood. This characterization is based on a novel view of the EM updates as a perturbed form of likelihood ascent, or in parallel, of the gradient EM updates as a perturbed form of standard gradient ascent. Leveraging this characterization, we then provide non-asymptotic guarantees on the EM and gradient EM algorithms when applied to a finite set of samples. We develop consequences of our general theory for three canonical examples of incompletedata problems: mixture of Gaussians, mixture of regressions, and linear regression with covariates missing completely at random. In each case, our theory guarantees that with a suitable initialization, a relatively small number of EM (or gradient EM) steps will yield (with high probability) an estimate that is within statistical error of the MLE. We provide simulations to confirm this theoretically predicted behavior. We build up the mathematical connection between the “Expectation-Maximization” (EM) algorithm and gradient-based approaches for maximum likelihood learning of finite gaussian mixtures. We show that the EM step in parameter space is obtained from the gradient via a projection matrix P, and we provide an explicit expression for the matrix. We then analyze the convergence of EM in terms of special properties of P and provide new results analyzing the effect that P has on the likelihood surface. Based on these mathematical results, we present a comparative discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of EM and other algorithms for the learning of gaussian mixture models. The EM algorithm performs maximum likelihood estimation for data in which some variables are unobserved. We present a function that resembles negative free energy and show that the M step maximizes this function with respect to the model parameters and the E step maximizes it with respect to the distribution over the unobserved variables. From this perspective, it is easy to justify an incremental variant of the EM algorithm in which the distribution for only one of the unobserved variables is recalculated in each E step. This variant is shown empirically to give faster convergence in a mixture estimation problem. A variant of the algorithm that exploits sparse conditional distributions is also described, and a wide range of other variant algorithms are also seen to be possible. The Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm is an iterative approach to maximum likelihood parameter estimation. Jordan and Jacobs (1993) recently proposed an EM algorithm for the mixture of experts architecture of Jacobs, Jordan, Nowlan and Hinton (1991) and the hierarchical mixture of experts architecture of Jordan and Jacobs (1992). They showed empirically that the EM algorithm for these architectures yields significantly faster convergence than gradient ascent. In the current paper we provide a theoretical analysis of this algorithm. We show that the algorithm can be regarded as a variable metric algorithm with its searching direction having a positive projection on the gradient of the log likelihood. We also analyze the convergence of the algorithm and provide an explicit expression for the convergence rate. In addition, we describe an acceleration technique that yields a significant speedup in simulation experiments.