In light of growing attention of intelligent vehicle systems, we propose developing a driver model that uses a hybrid system formulation to capture the intent of the driver. This model hopes to capture human driving behavior in a way that can be utilized by semi- and fully autonomous systems in heterogeneous environments. We consider a discrete set of high level goals or intent modes, that is designed to encompass the decision making process of the human. A driver model is derived using a dataset of lane changes collected in a realistic driving simulator, in which the driver actively labels data to give us insight into her intent. By building the labeled dataset, we are able to utilize classification tools to build the driver model using features of based on her perception of the environment, and achieve high accuracy in identifying driver intent. Multiple algorithms are presented and compared on the dataset, and a comparison of the varying behaviors between drivers is drawn. Using this modeling methodology, we present a model that can be used to assess driver behaviors and to develop human-inspired safety metrics that can be utilized in intelligent vehicular systems.
There are many works that consider predicting driver behavior by monitoring the driver @cite_15 , and have shown promising results in terms of human-in-the-loop and shared control for semi-autonomous frameworks @cite_4 . When it comes to driver modeling intent, many rely heavily on the driver state @cite_9 or on driver input @cite_0 . While effective, these methods rely on heuristics to determine when a lane change begins use windowing to select features that will train the classifier @cite_9 . This ultimately assumes that these high level decisions are made as a function of time, and not by the dynamic state of the environment, which is difficult to predict due to the high variability over long time horizons @cite_4 .
@cite_0 @cite_9 @cite_15 @cite_4
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Predicting driver behavior is a key component for Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS). In this paper, a novel approach based on Support Vector Machine and Bayesian filtering is proposed for online lane change intention prediction. The approach uses the multiclass probabilistic outputs of the Support Vector Machine as an input to the Bayesian filter, and the output of the Bayesian filter is used for the final prediction of lane changes. A lane tracker integrated in a passenger vehicle is used for real-world data collection for the purpose of training and testing. Data from different drivers on different highways were used to evaluate the robustness of the approach. The results demonstrate that the proposed approach is able to predict driver intention to change lanes on average 1.3 seconds in advance, with a maximum prediction horizon of 3.29 seconds. Misunderstanding of driver correction behaviors is the primary reason for false warnings of lane-departure-prediction systems. We proposed a learning-based approach to predict unintended lane-departure behaviors and chances of drivers to bring vehicles back to the lane. First, a personalized driver model for lane-departure and lane-keeping behavior is established by combining the Gaussian mixture model and the hidden Markov model. Second, based on this model, we developed an online model-based prediction algorithm to predict the forthcoming vehicle trajectory and judge whether the driver will act a lane departure behavior or correction behavior. We also develop a warning strategy based on the model-based prediction algorithm that allows the lane-departure warning system to be acceptable for drivers according to the predicted trajectory. In addition, the naturalistic driving data of ten drivers were collected to train the personalized driver model and validate this approach. We compared the proposed method with a basic time-to-lane-crossing (TLC) method and a TLC-directional sequence of piecewise lateral slopes (TLC-DSPLS) method. Experimental results show that the proposed approach can reduce the false-warning rate to 3.13 on average at 1-s prediction time. Predicting driver behavior in general, and the problem of predicting an impending lane change in particular have been studied in the community under different aspects and setups. Mostly the problem is approached as a classification problem in which each class represents a possible action in the next few seconds. In this work, we re-define the task as a regression problem, in which the time until the ego-vehicle touches the other lane is predicted. In particular, we use Long-Short-Term-Memory (LSTM) networks to learn to predict the time to lane change. Even though a regression-based formulation of the problem captures more information and should thus be harder to learn, we can show that it provides slightly better results than a comparable classification-based approach. Moreover, the additional precision that we get about the exact time of the impending the lane change could be used to further increase a user's acceptance of advanced driver assistance systems. We also show that it is possible to individualize the network by fine-tuning it to a particular driver's behavior. The fine-tuning results in an improvement of F1-Score while observing about 20 minutes of driving data from that driver. The ability to accurately predict and simulate human driving behavior is critical for the development of intelligent transportation systems. Traditional modeling methods have employed simple parametric models and behavioral cloning. This paper adopts a method for overcoming the problem of cascading errors inherent in prior approaches, resulting in realistic behavior that is robust to trajectory perturbations. We extend Generative Adversarial Imitation Learning to the training of recurrent policies, and we demonstrate that our model rivals rule-based controllers and maximum likelihood models in realistic highway simulations. Our model both reproduces emergent behavior of human drivers, such as lane change rate, while maintaining realistic control over long time horizons.