The author's presentation of multilevel Monte Carlo path simulation at the MCQMC 2006 conference stimulated a lot of research into multilevel Monte Carlo methods. This paper reviews the progress since then, emphasising the simplicity, flexibility and generality of the multilevel Monte Carlo approach. It also offers a few original ideas and suggests areas for future research.
Prior to the author's first publications @cite_11 @cite_8 on MLMC for Brownian path simulations, Heinrich developed a multilevel Monte Carlo method for parametric integration, the evaluation of functionals arising from the solution of integral equations, and weakly singular integral operators @cite_3 @cite_31 @cite_51 @cite_6 @cite_14 . Parametric integration concerns the estimation of @math where @math is a finite-dimensional random variable and @math is a parameter. In the simplest case in which @math is a real variable in the range @math , having estimated the value of @math and @math , one can use @math as a control variate when estimating the value of @math . This approach can then be applied recursively for other intermediate values of @math , yielding large savings if @math is sufficiently smooth with respect to @math . Although this does not quite fit into the general MLMC form given in the previous section, the recursive control variate approach is very similar and the complexity analysis is also very similar to the analysis to be presented in the next section.
@cite_14 @cite_8 @cite_3 @cite_6 @cite_31 @cite_51 @cite_11
1989307896 2774890264 2394967154 1997019093
In this paper we propose a general framework for the uncertainty quantification of quantities of interest for high-contrast single-phase flow problems. It is based on the generalized multiscale finite element method (GMsFEM) and multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) methods. The former provides a hierarchy of approximations of different resolution, whereas the latter gives an efficient way to estimate quantities of interest using samples on different levels. The number of basis functions in the online GMsFEM stage can be varied to determine the solution resolution and the computational cost, and to efficiently generate samples at different levels. In particular, it is cheap to generate samples on coarse grids but with low resolution, and it is expensive to generate samples on fine grids with high accuracy. By suitably choosing the number of samples at different levels, one can leverage the expensive computation in larger fine-grid spaces toward smaller coarse-grid spaces, while retaining the accuracy of the final Monte Carlo estimate. Further, we describe a multilevel Markov chain Monte Carlo method, which sequentially screens the proposal with different levels of approximations and reduces the number of evaluations required on fine grids, while combining the samples at different levels to arrive at an accurate estimate. The framework seamlessly integrates the multiscale features of the GMsFEM with the multilevel feature of the MLMC methods following the work in [26], and our numerical experiments illustrate its efficiency and accuracy in comparison with standard Monte Carlo estimates. In human-robot collaborative tasks, incorporating qualitative information provided by humans can greatly enhance the robustness and efficacy of robot state estimation. We introduce an algorithmic framework to model qualitative information as quantitative constraints on and between states. Our approach, named Sequentially Constrained Hamiltonian Monte Carlo, integrates Hamiltonian dynamics into Sequentially Constrained Monte Carlo sampling. We are able to generate samples that satisfy arbitrarily complex, non-smooth and discontinuous constraints, which in turn allows us to support a wide range of qualitative information. We evaluate our approach for constrained sampling qualitatively and quantitatively with several classes of constraints. SCHMC significantly outperforms the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm (a standard Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method) and the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) method, in terms of both the accuracy of the sampling (for satisfying constraints) and the quality of approximation. Compared to Sequentially Constrained Monte Carlo (SCMC), which supports similar kinds of constraints, our SCHMC approach has faster convergence rates and lower parameter sensitivity. Recently, Stochastic Gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SG-MCMC) methods have been proposed for scaling up Monte Carlo computations to large data problems. Whilst these approaches have proven useful in many applications, vanilla SG-MCMC might suffer from poor mixing rates when random variables exhibit strong couplings under the target densities or big scale differences. In this study, we propose a novel SG-MCMC method that takes the local geometry into account by using ideas from Quasi-Newton optimization methods. These second order methods directly approximate the inverse Hessian by using a limited history of samples and their gradients. Our method uses dense approximations of the inverse Hessian while keeping the time and memory complexities linear with the dimension of the problem. We provide a formal theoretical analysis where we show that the proposed method is asymptotically unbiased and consistent with the posterior expectations. We illustrate the effectiveness of the approach on both synthetic and real datasets. Our experiments on two challenging applications show that our method achieves fast convergence rates similar to Riemannian approaches while at the same time having low computational requirements similar to diagonal preconditioning approaches. In a companion paper (see Self-Similarity: Part I-Splines and Operators), we characterized the class of scale-invariant convolution operators: the generalized fractional derivatives of order gamma. We used these operators to specify regularization functionals for a series of Tikhonov-like least-squares data fitting problems and proved that the general solution is a fractional spline of twice the order. We investigated the deterministic properties of these smoothing splines and proposed a fast Fourier transform (FFT)-based implementation. Here, we present an alternative stochastic formulation to further justify these fractional spline estimators. As suggested by the title, the relevant processes are those that are statistically self-similar; that is, fractional Brownian motion (fBm) and its higher order extensions. To overcome the technical difficulties due to the nonstationary character of fBm, we adopt a distributional formulation due to Gel'fand. This allows us to rigorously specify an innovation model for these fractal processes, which rests on the property that they can be whitened by suitable fractional differentiation. Using the characteristic form of the fBm, we then derive the conditional probability density function (PDF) p(BH(t)|Y), where Y= BH(k)+n[k] kisinZ are the noisy samples of the fBm BH(t) with Hurst exponent H. We find that the conditional mean is a fractional spline of degree 2H, which proves that this class of functions is indeed optimal for the estimation of fractal-like processes. The result also yields the optimal [minimum mean-square error (MMSE)] parameters for the smoothing spline estimator, as well as the connection with kriging and Wiener filtering