We provide theoretical and empirical evidence for a type of asymmetry between causes and effects that is present when these are related via linear models contaminated with additive non-Gaussian noise. Assuming that the causes and the effects have the same distribution, we show that the distribution of the residuals of a linear fit in the anti-causal direction is closer to a Gaussian than the distribution of the residuals in the causal direction. This Gaussianization effect is characterized by reduction of the magnitude of the high-order cumulants and by an increment of the differential entropy of the residuals. The problem of non-linear causal inference is addressed by performing an embedding in an expanded feature space, in which the relation between causes and effects can be assumed to be linear. The effectiveness of a method to discriminate between causes and effects based on this type of asymmetry is illustrated in a variety of experiments using different measures of Gaussianity. The proposed method is shown to be competitive with state-of-the-art techniques for causal inference.
The Gaussianity of residuals was first employed for causal inference by . These authors analyze auto-regressive (AR) processes and show that a similar asymmetry as the one described in this paper can be used to determine the temporal direction of a time series in the presence of non-Gaussian noise. Namely, when fitting an AR process to a reversed time series, the residuals obtained follow a distribution that is closer to a Gaussian distribution. Nevertheless, unlike the work described here, the method proposed by @cite_2 cannot be used to tackle multidimensional or non-linear causal inference problems. In their work, show some advantages of using statistical tests based on measures of Gaussianity to determine the temporal direction of a time series, as a practical alternative to statistical tests based on the independence of the cause and the residual. The motivation for these advantages is that the former tests are one-sample tests while the later ones are two-sample tests.
@cite_2
2142435179 2949337148 2149273154 1716904016
We conjecture that the distribution of the time-reversed residuals of a causal linear process is closer to a Gaussian than the distribution of the noise used to generate the process in the forward direction. This property is demonstrated for causal AR(1) processes assuming that all the cumulants of the distribution of the noise are defined. Based on this observation, it is possible to design a decision rule for detecting the direction of time series that can be described as linear processes: The correct direction (forward in time) is the one in which the residuals from a linear fit to the time series are less Gaussian. A series of experiments with simulated and real-world data illustrate the superior results of the proposed rule when compared with other state-of-the-art methods based on independence tests. We discuss the Gaussian graphical model (GGM; an undirected network of partial correlation coefficients) and detail its utility as an exploratory data analysis tool. The GGM shows which variables predict one-another, allows for sparse modeling of covariance structures, and may highlight potential causal relationships between observed variables. We describe the utility in 3 kinds of psychological datasets: datasets in which consecutive cases are assumed independent (e.g., cross-sectional data), temporally ordered datasets (e.g., n = 1 time series), and a mixture of the 2 (e.g., n > 1 time series). In time-series analysis, the GGM can be used to model the residual structure of a vector-autoregression analysis (VAR), also termed graphical VAR. Two network models can then be obtained: a temporal network and a contemporaneous network. When analyzing data from multiple subjects, a GGM can also be formed on the covariance structure of stationary means---the between-subjects network. We discuss the interpretation of these models and propose estimation methods to obtain these networks, which we implement in the R packages graphicalVAR and mlVAR. The methods are showcased in two empirical examples, and simulation studies on these methods are included in the supplementary materials. Gaussian process (GP) models are very popular for machine learning and regression and they are widely used to account for spatial or temporal relationships between multivariate random variables. In this paper, we propose a general formulation of underdetermined source separation as a problem involving GP regression. The advantage of the proposed unified view is first to describe the different underdetermined source separation problems as particular cases of a more general framework. Second, it provides a flexible means to include a variety of prior information concerning the sources such as smoothness, local stationarity or periodicity through the use of adequate covariance functions. Third, given the model, it provides an optimal solution in the minimum mean squared error (MMSE) sense to the source separation problem. In order to make the GP models tractable for very large signals, we introduce framing as a GP approximation and we show that computations for regularly sampled and locally stationary GPs can be done very efficiently in the frequency domain. These findings establish a deep connection between GP and nonnegative tensor factorizations (NTF) with the Itakura-Saito distance and lead to effective methods to learn GP hyperparameters for very large and regularly sampled signals. The Gaussian graphical model, a popular paradigm for studying relationship among variables in a wide range of applications, has attracted great attention in recent years. This paper considers a fundamental question: When is it possible to estimate low-dimensional parameters at parametric square-root rate in a large Gaussian graphical model? A novel regression approach is proposed to obtain asymptotically efficient estimation of each entry of a precision matrix under a sparseness condition relative to the sample size. When the precision matrix is not sufficiently sparse, or equivalently the sample size is not sufficiently large, a lower bound is established to show that it is no longer possible to achieve the parametric rate in the estimation of each entry. This lower bound result, which provides an answer to the delicate sample size question, is established with a novel construction of a subset of sparse precision matrices in an application of Le Cam's lemma. Moreover, the proposed estimator is proven to have optimal convergence rate when the parametric rate cannot be achieved, under a minimal sample requirement. The proposed estimator is applied to test the presence of an edge in the Gaussian graphical model or to recover the support of the entire model, to obtain adaptive rate-optimal estimation of the entire precision matrix as measured by the matrix @math operator norm and to make inference in latent variables in the graphical model. All of this is achieved under a sparsity condition on the precision matrix and a side condition on the range of its spectrum. This significantly relaxes the commonly imposed uniform signal strength condition on the precision matrix, irrepresentability condition on the Hessian tensor operator of the covariance matrix or the @math constraint on the precision matrix. Numerical results confirm our theoretical findings. The ROC curve of the proposed algorithm, Asymptotic Normal Thresholding (ANT), for support recovery significantly outperforms that of the popular GLasso algorithm.