Twitter as a new form of social media potentially contains useful information that opens new opportunities for content analysis on tweets. This paper examines the predictive power of Twitter regarding the US presidential election of 2012. For this study, we analyzed 32 million tweets regarding the US presidential election by employing a combination of machine learning techniques. We devised an advanced classifier for sentiment analysis in order to increase the accuracy of Twitter content analysis. We carried out our analysis by comparing Twitter results with traditional opinion polls. In addition, we used the Latent Dirichlet Allocation model to extract the underlying topical structure from the selected tweets. Our results show that we can determine the popularity of candidates by running sentiment analysis. We can also uncover candidates popularities in the US states by running the sentiment analysis algorithm on geo-tagged tweets. To the best of our knowledge, no previous work in the field has presented a systematic analysis of a considerable number of tweets employing a combination of analysis techniques by which we conducted this study. Thus, our results aptly suggest that Twitter as a well-known social medium is a valid source in predicting future events such as elections. This implies that understanding public opinions and trends via social media in turn allows us to propose a cost- and time-effective way not only for spreading and sharing information, but also for predicting future events.
Marwick argued that Facebook or Twitter users' imagined audience might be different from actual readers who would be interested in tweets and posts @cite_35 . Another account may lie in a big data fallacy that can be found in demographic bias in that users tend to be young, and big data itself may not be statistically representative of the whole population. For instance, Twitter users are predominantly males, but the rate of male users was found to have decreased, oppositely to the bias that the rate of male users would increase @cite_17 . Because of these reasons, some contend that the predictability of Twitter data does not guarantee generalization of its positive analysis results in the past @cite_6 . Having a specific conception of the users' online identity presentation, and understanding of Twitter users can help for advanced observations and predictions, since such an understanding can reduce biases of tweet-based analysis @cite_17 . While conducting this study, we could partly detect users' gender and resident cities.
@cite_35 @cite_6 @cite_17
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Social media platforms have become a major gateway to receive and analyze public opinions. Understanding users can provide invaluable context information of their social media posts and significantly improve traditional opinion analysis models. Demographic attributes, such as ethnicity, gender, age, among others, have been extensively applied to characterize social media users. While studies have shown that user groups formed by demographic attributes can have coherent opinions towards political issues, these attributes are often not explicitly coded by users through their profiles. Previous work has demonstrated the effectiveness of different user signals such as users’ posts and names in determining demographic attributes. Yet, these efforts mostly evaluate linguistic signals from users’ posts and train models from artificially balanced datasets. In this paper, we propose a comprehensive list of user signals: self-descriptions and posts aggregated from users’ friends and followers, users’ profile images, and users’ names. We provide a comparative study of these signals side-by-side in the tasks on inferring three major demographic attributes, namely ethnicity, gender, and age. We utilize a realistic unbalanced datasets that share similar demographic makeups in Twitter for training models and evaluation experiments. Our experiments indicate that self-descriptions provide the strongest signal for ethnicity and age inference and clearly improve the overall performance when combined with tweets. Profile images for gender inference have the highest precision score with overall score close to the best result in our setting. This suggests that signals in self-descriptions and profile images have potentials to facilitate demographic attribute inferences in Twitter, and are promising for future investigation. Understanding the demographics of users of online social networks has important applications for health, marketing, and public messaging. Whereas most prior approaches rely on a supervised learning approach, in which individual users are labeled with demographics for training, we instead create a distantly labeled dataset by collecting audience measurement data for 1,500 websites (e.g., 50 of visitors to gizmodo.com are estimated to have a bachelor's degree). We then fit a regression model to predict these demographics from information about the followers of each website on Twitter. Using patterns derived both from textual content and the social network of each user, our final model produces an average held-out correlation of .77 across seven different variables (age, gender, education, ethnicity, income, parental status, and political preference). We then apply this model to classify individual Twitter users by ethnicity, gender, and political preference, finding performance that is surprisingly competitive with a fully supervised approach. Users of social media sites like Facebook and Twitter rely on crowdsourced content recommendation systems (e.g., Trending Topics) to retrieve important and useful information. Contents selected for recommendation indirectly give the initial users who promoted (by liking or posting) the content an opportunity to propagate their messages to a wider audience. Hence, it is important to understand the demographics of people who make a content worthy of recommendation, and explore whether they are representative of the media site's overall population. In this work, using extensive data collected from Twitter, we make the first attempt to quantify and explore the demographic biases in the crowdsourced recommendations. Our analysis, focusing on the selection of trending topics, finds that a large fraction of trends are promoted by crowds whose demographics are significantly different from the overall Twitter population. More worryingly, we find that certain demographic groups are systematically under-represented among the promoters of the trending topics. To make the demographic biases in Twitter trends more transparent, we developed and deployed a Web-based service 'Who-Makes-Trends' at twitter-app.mpi-sws.org who-makes-trends. Twitter user profiles contain rich information that allows researchers to infer particular attributes of users' identities. Knowing identity attributes such as gender, age, and or nationality are a first step in many studies which seek to describe various phenomena related to computational social science. Often, it is through such attributes that studies of social media that focus on, for example, the isolation of foreigners, become possible. However, such characteristics are not often clearly stated by Twitter users, so researchers must turn to other means to ascertain various categories of identity. In this paper, we discuss the challenge of detecting the nationality of Twitter users using rich features from their profiles. In addition, we look at the effectiveness of different features as we go about this task. For the case of a highly diverse country---Qatar---we provide a detailed network analysis with insights into user behaviors and linking preference (or the lack thereof) to other nationalities.