We analyze general trends and pattern in time series that characterize the dynamics of collective attention to social media services and Web-based businesses. Our study is based on search frequency data available from Google Trends and considers 175 different services. For each service, we collect data from 45 different countries as well as global averages. This way, we obtain more than 8,000 time series which we analyze using diffusion models from the economic sciences. We find that these models accurately characterize the empirical data and our analysis reveals that collective attention to social media grows and subsides in a highly regular and predictable manner. Regularities persist across regions, cultures, and topics and thus hint at general mechanisms that govern the adoption of Web-based services. We discuss several cases in detail to highlight interesting findings. Our methods are of economic interest as they may inform investment decisions and can help assessing at what stage of the general life-cycle a Web service is at.
While attention dynamics on shorter time scales have been modeled using random fields @cite_15 , structured models @cite_12 , or differential equations @cite_22 , long term temporal dynamics of collective attention have previously been modeled using mixtures of power-law and Poisson distributions @cite_4 or systems of differential equations @cite_30 @cite_25 which were inspired by techniques from the area of epidemic modeling @cite_26 @cite_9 . In this context, we note that the diffusion models considered in this paper also allow for interpretations in terms of the dynamics of elementary differential equations. For instance, the Weibull model in can be expressed as @math which hints at a similarity in spirit between economic diffusion and established epidemic models that seems to merit further research.
@cite_30 @cite_26 @cite_4 @cite_22 @cite_9 @cite_15 @cite_25 @cite_12
2042034885 2086627840 2144588366 2016674662
We study the relaxation response of a social system after endogenous and exogenous bursts of activity using the time series of daily views for nearly 5 million videos on YouTube. We find that most activity can be described accurately as a Poisson process. However, we also find hundreds of thousands of examples in which a burst of activity is followed by an ubiquitous power-law relaxation governing the timing of views. We find that these relaxation exponents cluster into three distinct classes and allow for the classification of collective human dynamics. This is consistent with an epidemic model on a social network containing two ingredients: a power-law distribution of waiting times between cause and action and an epidemic cascade of actions becoming the cause of future actions. This model is a conceptual extension of the fluctuation-dissipation theorem to social systems [Ruelle, D (2004) Phys Today 57:48–53] and [Roehner BM, et al, (2004) Int J Mod Phys C 15:809–834], and provides a unique framework for the investigation of timing in complex systems. The population dynamics underlying the diffusion of ideas hold many qualitative similarities to those involved in the spread of infections. In spite of much suggestive evidence this analogy is hardly ever quantified in useful ways. The standard benefit of modeling epidemics is the ability to estimate quantitatively population average parameters, such as interpersonal contact rates, incubation times, duration of infectious periods, etc. In most cases such quantities generalize naturally to the spread of ideas and provide a simple means of quantifying sociological and behavioral patterns. Here we apply several paradigmatic models of epidemics to empirical data on the advent and spread of Feynman diagrams through the theoretical physics communities of the USA, Japan, and the USSR in the period immediately after World War II. This test case has the advantage of having been studied historically in great detail, which allows validation of our results. We estimate the effectiveness of adoption of the idea in the three communities and find values for parameters reflecting both intentional social organization and long lifetimes for the idea. These features are probably general characteristics of the spread of ideas, but not of common epidemics. Epidemic algorithms have recently been proposed as an effective solution for disseminating information in large-scale peer-to-peer (P2P) systems and in mobile ad hoc networks (MANET). In this paper, we present a modeling approach for steady-state analysis of epidemic dissemination of information in MANET. As major contribution, the introduced approach explicitly represents the spread of multiple data items, finite buffer capacity at mobile devices and a least recently used buffer replacement scheme. Using the introduced modeling approach, we analyze seven degrees of separation (7DS) as one well-known approach for implementing P2P data sharing in a MANET using epidemic dissemination of information. A validation of results derived from the analytical model against simulation shows excellent agreement. Quantitative performance curves derived from the analytical model yield several insights for optimizing the system design of 7DS. Among the realistic ingredients to be considered in the computational modeling of infectious diseases, human mobility represents a crucial challenge both on the theoretical side and in view of the limited availability of empirical data. To study the interplay between short-scale commuting flows and long-range airline traffic in shaping the spatiotemporal pattern of a global epidemic we (i) analyze mobility data from 29 countries around the world and find a gravity model able to provide a global description of commuting patterns up to 300 kms and (ii) integrate in a worldwide-structured metapopulation epidemic model a timescale-separation technique for evaluating the force of infection due to multiscale mobility processes in the disease dynamics. Commuting flows are found, on average, to be one order of magnitude larger than airline flows. However, their introduction into the worldwide model shows that the large-scale pattern of the simulated epidemic exhibits only small variations with respect to the baseline case where only airline traffic is considered. The presence of short-range mobility increases, however, the synchronization of subpopulations in close proximity and affects the epidemic behavior at the periphery of the airline transportation infrastructure. The present approach outlines the possibility for the definition of layered computational approaches where different modeling assumptions and granularities can be used consistently in a unifying multiscale framework.