In this paper we apply a time series based Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) approach to the problem of predicting unemployment insurance claims in different census regions of the United States. Unemployment insurance claims data, reported weekly, are a leading indicator of the US unemployment rate. Gathering weekly unemployment claims and aggregating by region, we model correlation between the different census regions. Additionally, we explore the use of external variables such as Bing search query volumes and URL site clicks related to unemployment claims. To prevent any spurious predictors from appearing in the model we use sparse model based regularization. Preliminary results indicate that our approach is promising and in ongoing work we are extending the approach to a larger set of predictors and a longer data range.
De @cite_5 looked at a Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) model for predicting monthly unemployment rates in the census regions. While this approach has some resemblance to our method, the important thing to note is that we do not force any spatial constraints in the model to infer any dependence between the regions. We achieve this goal by using a sparse penalty in the model. More importantly our model also incorporates exogenous signals. Search data provides an interesting source of boundary crossing information, since an individual can work in one state or region but live in another where their search occurs.
@cite_5
162947328 1836500409 2148739392 2158842374
We analyze spatio-temporal data on U.S. unemployment rates. For this purpose, we present a family of models designed for the analysis and time-forward prediction of spatio-temporal econometric data. Our model is aimed at applications with spatially sparse but temporally rich data, i.e. for observations collected at few spatial regions, but at many regular time intervals. The family of models utilized does not make spatial stationarity assumptions and consists in a vector autoregressive (VAR) specification, where there are as many time series as spatial regions. A model building strategy is used that takes into account the spatial dependence structure of the data. Model building may be performed either by displaying sample partial correlation functions, or automatically with an information criterion. Monthly data on unemployment rates in the nine census divisions of the U.S. are analyzed. We show with a residual analysis that our autoregressive model captures the dependence structure of the data better than with univariate time series modeling. The vector autoregressive (VAR) model is a powerful tool in learning complex time series and has been exploited in many fields. The VAR model poses some unique challenges to researchers: On one hand, the dimensionality, introduced by incorporating multiple numbers of time series and adding the order of the vector autoregression, is usually much higher than the time series length; On the other hand, the temporal dependence structure naturally present in the VAR model gives rise to extra difficulties in data analysis. The regular way in cracking the VAR model is via "least squares" and usually involves adding different penalty terms (e.g., ridge or lasso penalty) in handling high dimensionality. In this manuscript, we propose an alternative way in estimating the VAR model. The main idea is, via exploiting the temporal dependence structure, formulating the estimating problem to a linear program. There is instant advantage of the proposed approach over the lasso-type estimators: The estimation equation can be decomposed to multiple sub-equations and accordingly can be solved efficiently using parallel computing. Besides that, we also bring new theoretical insights into the VAR model analysis. So far the theoretical results developed in high dimensions (e.g., Song and Bickel, 2011 and Kock and Callot, 2015) are based on stringent assumptions that are not transparent. Our results, on the other hand, show that the spectral norms of the transition matrices play an important role in estimation accuracy and build estimation and prediction consistency accordingly. Moreover, we provide some experiments on both synthetic and real-world equity data. We show that there are empirical advantages of our method over the lasso-type estimators in parameter estimation and forecasting. We propose a new algorithm to detect facial points in frontal and near-frontal face images. It combines a regression-based approach with a probabilistic graphical model-based face shape model that restricts the search to anthropomorphically consistent regions. While most regression-based approaches perform a sequential approximation of the target location, our algorithm detects the target location by aggregating the estimates obtained from stochastically selected local appearance information into a single robust prediction. The underlying assumption is that by aggregating the different estimates, their errors will cancel out as long as the regressor inputs are uncorrelated. Once this new perspective is adopted, the problem is reformulated as how to optimally select the test locations over which the regressors are evaluated. We propose to extend the regression-based model to provide a quality measure of each prediction, and use the shape model to restrict and correct the sampling region. Our approach combines the low computational cost typical of regression-based approaches with the robustness of exhaustive-search approaches. The proposed algorithm was tested on over 7,500 images from five databases. Results showed significant improvement over the current state of the art. Many state-of-the-art segmentation algorithms rely on Markov or Conditional Random Field models designed to enforce spatial and global consistency constraints. This is often accomplished by introducing additional latent variables to the model, which can greatly increase its complexity. As a result, estimating the model parameters or computing the best maximum a posteriori (MAP) assignment becomes a computationally expensive task. In a series of experiments on the PASCAL and the MSRC datasets, we were unable to find evidence of a significant performance increase attributed to the introduction of such constraints. On the contrary, we found that similar levels of performance can be achieved using a much simpler design that essentially ignores these constraints. This more simple approach makes use of the same local and global features to leverage evidence from the image, but instead directly biases the preferences of individual pixels. While our investigation does not prove that spatial and consistency constraints are not useful in principle, it points to the conclusion that they should be validated in a larger context.