The accurate estimation of predictive uncertainty carries importance in medical scenarios such as lung node segmentation. Unfortunately, most existing works on predictive uncertainty do not return calibrated uncertainty estimates, which could be used in practice. In this work we exploit multi-grader annotation variability as a source of 'groundtruth' aleatoric uncertainty, which can be treated as a target in a supervised learning problem. We combine this groundtruth uncertainty with a Probabilistic U-Net and test on the LIDC-IDRI lung nodule CT dataset and MICCAI2012 prostate MRI dataset. We find that we are able to improve predictive uncertainty estimates. We also find that we can improve sample accuracy and sample diversity.
Current techniques for estimating aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty follow similar line. In Tanno @cite_4 the authors treat MRI superresolution as a regression problem. They build a CNN directly outputting @math and @math . They model epistemic uncertainty using variational dropout @cite_7 . Bragman @cite_6 build on this technique, applying it to radiotherapy-treatment planning and multi-task learning. Concurrent to @cite_4 Kendall and Gal proposed a similar method using Monte Carlo (MC) instead of variational dropout @cite_12 .They also proposed a method which would work for classification, where they predict a mean and variance in the logit-space just before a sigmoid. Jungo @cite_19 estimate epistemic uncertainty in the context of postoperative brain tumor cavity segmentation using MC dropout @cite_12 . In @cite_18 Ayhan and Berens treat the data augmentation process as part of the approximate posterior @math . They claim this is aleatoric uncertainty, but from their method it appears they really compute epistemic uncertainty. None of these works quantitatively evaluates the quality of the epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties. In this work, we show that the aleatoric uncertainty can indeed be measured.
@cite_18 @cite_4 @cite_7 @cite_6 @cite_19 @cite_12
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Uncertainty estimates of modern neuronal networks provide additional information next to the computed predictions and are thus expected to improve the understanding of the underlying model. Reliable uncertainties are particularly interesting for safety-critical computer-assisted applications in medicine, e.g., neurosurgical interventions and radiotherapy planning. We propose an uncertainty-driven sanity check for the identification of segmentation results that need particular expert review. Our method uses a fully-convolutional neural network and computes uncertainty estimates by the principle of Monte Carlo dropout. We evaluate the performance of the proposed method on a clinical dataset with 30 postoperative brain tumor images. The method can segment the highly inhomogeneous resection cavities accurately (Dice coefficients 0.792 @math 0.154). Furthermore, the proposed sanity check is able to detect the worst segmentation and three out of the four outliers. The results highlight the potential of using the additional information from the model's parameter uncertainty to validate the segmentation performance of a deep learning model. We present an adversarial domain adaptation based deep learning approach for automatic tumor segmentation from T2-weighted MRI. Our approach is composed of two steps: (i) a tumor-aware unsupervised cross-domain adaptation (CT to MRI), followed by (ii) semi-supervised tumor segmentation using Unet trained with synthesized and limited number of original MRIs. We introduced a novel target specific loss, called tumor-aware loss, for unsupervised cross-domain adaptation that helps to preserve tumors on synthesized MRIs produced from CT images. In comparison, state-of-the art adversarial networks trained without our tumor-aware loss produced MRIs with ill-preserved or missing tumors. All networks were trained using labeled CT images from 377 patients with non-small cell lung cancer obtained from the Cancer Imaging Archive and unlabeled T2w MRIs from a completely unrelated cohort of 6 patients with pre-treatment and 36 on-treatment scans. Next, we combined 6 labeled pre-treatment MRI scans with the synthesized MRIs to boost tumor segmentation accuracy through semi-supervised learning. Semi-supervised training of cycle-GAN produced a segmentation accuracy of 0.66 computed using Dice Score Coefficient (DSC). Our method trained with only synthesized MRIs produced an accuracy of 0.74 while the same method trained in semi-supervised setting produced the best accuracy of 0.80 on test. Our results show that tumor-aware adversarial domain adaptation helps to achieve reasonably accurate cancer segmentation from limited MRI data by leveraging large CT datasets. There are two major types of uncertainty one can model. Aleatoric uncertainty captures noise inherent in the observations. On the other hand, epistemic uncertainty accounts for uncertainty in the model - uncertainty which can be explained away given enough data. Traditionally it has been difficult to model epistemic uncertainty in computer vision, but with new Bayesian deep learning tools this is now possible. We study the benefits of modeling epistemic vs. aleatoric uncertainty in Bayesian deep learning models for vision tasks. For this we present a Bayesian deep learning framework combining input-dependent aleatoric uncertainty together with epistemic uncertainty. We study models under the framework with per-pixel semantic segmentation and depth regression tasks. Further, our explicit uncertainty formulation leads to new loss functions for these tasks, which can be interpreted as learned attenuation. This makes the loss more robust to noisy data, also giving new state-of-the-art results on segmentation and depth regression benchmarks. Deep learning (DL) networks have recently been shown to outperform other segmentation methods on various public, medical-image challenge datasets [3, 11, 16], especially for large pathologies. However, in the context of diseases such as Multiple Sclerosis (MS), monitoring all the focal lesions visible on MRI sequences, even very small ones, is essential for disease staging, prognosis, and evaluating treatment efficacy. Moreover, producing deterministic outputs hinders DL adoption into clinical routines. Uncertainty estimates for the predictions would permit subsequent revision by clinicians. We present the first exploration of multiple uncertainty estimates based on Monte Carlo (MC) dropout [4] in the context of deep networks for lesion detection and segmentation in medical images. Specifically, we develop a 3D MS lesion segmentation CNN, augmented to provide four different voxel-based uncertainty measures based on MC dropout. We train the network on a proprietary, large-scale, multi-site, multi-scanner, clinical MS dataset, and compute lesion-wise uncertainties by accumulating evidence from voxel-wise uncertainties within detected lesions. We analyze the performance of voxel-based segmentation and lesion-level detection by choosing operating points based on the uncertainty. Empirical evidence suggests that uncertainty measures consistently allow us to choose superior operating points compared only using the network’s sigmoid output as a probability.