We define a Causal Decision Problem as a Decision Problem where the available actions, the family of uncertain events and the set of outcomes are related through the variables of a Causal Graphical Model @math . A solution criteria based on Pearl's Do-Calculus and the Expected Utility criteria for rational preferences is proposed. The implementation of this criteria leads to an on-line decision making procedure that has been shown to have similar performance to classic Reinforcement Learning algorithms while allowing for a causal model of an environment to be learned. Thus, we aim to provide the theoretical guarantees of the usefulness and optimality of a decision making procedure based on causal information.
From the Machine Learning point of view, @cite_1 consider a where the actions available to an autonomous agent are interventions over a known causal model. In their work it is required that the causal model is known, an assumption later relaxed by @cite_0 who considers as unknown only a part of the causal model.
@cite_0 @cite_1
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For an autonomous agent to fulfill a wide range of user-specified goals at test time, it must be able to learn broadly applicable and general-purpose skill repertoires. Furthermore, to provide the requisite level of generality, these skills must handle raw sensory input such as images. In this paper, we propose an algorithm that acquires such general-purpose skills by combining unsupervised representation learning and reinforcement learning of goal-conditioned policies. Since the particular goals that might be required at test-time are not known in advance, the agent performs a self-supervised "practice" phase where it imagines goals and attempts to achieve them. We learn a visual representation with three distinct purposes: sampling goals for self-supervised practice, providing a structured transformation of raw sensory inputs, and computing a reward signal for goal reaching. We also propose a retroactive goal relabeling scheme to further improve the sample-efficiency of our method. Our off-policy algorithm is efficient enough to learn policies that operate on raw image observations and goals in a real-world physical system, and substantially outperforms prior techniques. Machine learning is now being used to make crucial decisions about people's lives. For nearly all of these decisions there is a risk that individuals of a certain race, gender, sexual orientation, or any other subpopulation are unfairly discriminated against. Our recent method has demonstrated how to use techniques from counterfactual inference to make predictions fair across different subpopulations. This method requires that one provides the causal model that generated the data at hand. In general, validating all causal implications of the model is not possible without further assumptions. Hence, it is desirable to integrate competing causal models to provide counterfactually fair decisions, regardless of which causal "world" is the correct one. In this paper, we show how it is possible to make predictions that are approximately fair with respect to multiple possible causal models at once, thus mitigating the problem of exact causal specification. We frame the goal of learning a fair classifier as an optimization problem with fairness constraints entailed by competing causal explanations. We show how this optimization problem can be efficiently solved using gradient-based methods. We demonstrate the flexibility of our model on two real-world fair classification problems. We show that our model can seamlessly balance fairness in multiple worlds with prediction accuracy. We propose a novel approach for inferring the individualized causal effects of a treatment (intervention) from observational data. Our approach conceptualizes causal inference as a multitask learning problem; we model a subject's potential outcomes using a deep multitask network with a set of shared layers among the factual and counterfactual outcomes, and a set of outcome-specific layers. The impact of selection bias in the observational data is alleviated via a propensity-dropout regularization scheme, in which the network is thinned for every training example via a dropout probability that depends on the associated propensity score. The network is trained in alternating phases, where in each phase we use the training examples of one of the two potential outcomes (treated and control populations) to update the weights of the shared layers and the respective outcome-specific layers. Experiments conducted on data based on a real-world observational study show that our algorithm outperforms the state-of-the-art. We consider planning problems, that often arise in autonomous driving applications, in which an agent should decide on immediate actions so as to optimize a long term objective. For example, when a car tries to merge in a roundabout it should decide on an immediate acceleration braking command, while the long term effect of the command is the success failure of the merge. Such problems are characterized by continuous state and action spaces, and by interaction with multiple agents, whose behavior can be adversarial. We argue that dual versions of the MDP framework (that depend on the value function and the @math function) are problematic for autonomous driving applications due to the non Markovian of the natural state space representation, and due to the continuous state and action spaces. We propose to tackle the planning task by decomposing the problem into two phases: First, we apply supervised learning for predicting the near future based on the present. We require that the predictor will be differentiable with respect to the representation of the present. Second, we model a full trajectory of the agent using a recurrent neural network, where unexplained factors are modeled as (additive) input nodes. This allows us to solve the long-term planning problem using supervised learning techniques and direct optimization over the recurrent neural network. Our approach enables us to learn robust policies by incorporating adversarial elements to the environment.