With the growth of user-generated content, we observe the constant rise of the number of companies, such as search engines, content aggregators, etc., that operate with tremendous amounts of web content not being the services hosting it. Thus, aiming to locate the most important content and promote it to the users, they face the need of estimating the current and predicting the future content popularity. In this paper, we approach the problem of video popularity prediction not from the side of a video hosting service, as done in all previous studies, but from the side of an operating company, which provides a popular video search service that aggregates content from different video hosting websites. We investigate video popularity prediction based on features from three primary sources available for a typical operating company: first, the content hosting provider may deliver its data via its API, second, the operating company makes use of its own search and browsing logs, third, the company crawls information about embeds of a video and links to a video page from publicly available resources on the Web. We show that video popularity prediction based on the embed and link data coupled with the internal search and browsing data significantly improves video popularity prediction based only on the data provided by the video hosting and can even adequately replace the API data in the cases when it is partly or completely unavailable.
The video hosting content and its popularity were widely investigated in recent years. In one of the most cited studies on the topic @cite_30 , researchers focused on the analysis of video views dynamics decay after its peak. Both @cite_19 and @cite_5 examined how quickly a video can become popular. They found that the most popular and viral videos receive the major part of their views in the first weeks of their existence. Another study @cite_18 also found that, in general, viral videos are mostly viewed in the first week after their upload. All the mentioned studies confirm the importance of studying and predicting video popularity in the first days of its existence.
@cite_30 @cite_19 @cite_5 @cite_18
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This paper develops a framework for studying the popularity dynamics of user-generated videos, presents a characterization of the popularity dynamics, and proposes a model that captures the key properties of these dynamics. We illustrate the biases that may be introduced in the analysis for some choices of the sampling technique used for collecting data; however, sampling from recently-uploaded videos provides a dataset that is seemingly unbiased. Using a dataset that tracks the views to a sample of recently-uploaded YouTube videos over the first eight months of their lifetime, we study the popularity dynamics. We find that the relative popularities of the videos within our dataset are highly non-stationary, owing primarily to large differences in the required time since upload until peak popularity is finally achieved, and secondly to popularity oscillation. We propose a model that can accurately capture the popularity dynamics of collections of recently-uploaded videos as they age, including key measures such as hot set churn statistics, and the evolution of the viewing rate and total views distributions over time. Viral videos that gain popularity through the process of Internet sharing are having a profound impact on society. Existing studies on viral videos have only been on small or confidential datasets. We collect by far the largest open benchmark for viral video study called CMU Viral Video Dataset, and share it with researchers from both academia and industry. Having verified existing observations on the dataset, we discover some interesting characteristics of viral videos. Based on our analysis, in the second half of the paper, we propose a model to forecast the future peak day of viral videos. The application of our work is not only important for advertising agencies to plan advertising campaigns and estimate costs, but also for companies to be able to quickly respond to rivals in viral marketing campaigns. The proposed method is unique in that it is the first attempt to incorporate video metadata into the peak day prediction. The empirical results demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art methods, with statistically significant differences. Understanding content popularity growth is of great importance to Internet service providers, content creators and online marketers. In this work, we characterize the growth patterns of video popularity on the currently most popular video sharing application, namely YouTube. Using newly provided data by the application, we analyze how the popularity of individual videos evolves since the video's upload time. Moreover, addressing a key aspect that has been mostly overlooked by previous work, we characterize the types of the referrers that most often attracted users to each video, aiming at shedding some light into the mechanisms (e.g., searching or external linking) that often drive users towards a video, and thus contribute to popularity growth. Our analyses are performed separately for three video datasets, namely, videos that appear in the YouTube top lists, videos removed from the system due to copyright violation, and videos selected according to random queries submitted to YouTube's search engine. Our results show that popularity growth patterns depend on the video dataset. In particular, copyright protected videos tend to get most of their views much earlier in their lifetimes, often exhibiting a popularity growth characterized by a viral epidemic-like propagation process. In contrast, videos in the top lists tend to experience sudden significant bursts of popularity. We also show that not only search but also other YouTube internal mechanisms play important roles to attract users to videos in all three datasets. Video dissemination through sites such as YouTube can have widespread impacts on opinions, thoughts, and cultures. Not all videos will reach the same popularity and have the same impact. Popularity differences arise not only because of differences in video content, but also because of other "content-agnostic" factors. The latter factors are of considerable interest but it has been difficult to accurately study them. For example, videos uploaded by users with large social networks may tend to be more popular because they tend to have more interesting content, not because social network size has a substantial direct impact on popularity. In this paper, we develop and apply a methodology that is able to accurately assess, both qualitatively and quantitatively, the impacts of various content-agnostic factors on video popularity. When controlling for video content, we observe a strong linear "rich-get-richer" behavior, with the total number of previous views as the most important factor except for very young videos. The second most important factor is found to be video age. We analyze a number of phenomena that may contribute to rich-get-richer, including the first-mover advantage, and search bias towards popular videos. For young videos we find that factors other than the total number of previous views, such as uploader characteristics and number of keywords, become relatively more important. Our findings also confirm that inaccurate conclusions can be reached when not controlling for content.