This paper proposes a novel approach for constructing effective personalized policies when the observed data lacks counter-factual information, is biased and possesses many features. The approach is applicable in a wide variety of settings from healthcare to advertising to education to finance. These settings have in common that the decision maker can observe, for each previous instance, an array of features of the instance, the action taken in that instance, and the reward realized—but not the rewards of actions that were not taken: the counterfactual information. Learning in such settings is made even more difficult because the observed data is typically biased by the existing policy (that generated the data) and because the array of features that might affect the reward in a particular instance—and hence should be taken into account in deciding on an action in each particular instance—is often vast. The approach presented here estimates propensity scores for the observed data, infers counterfactuals, identifies a (relatively small) number of features that are (most) relevant for each possible action and instance, and prescribes a policy to be followed. Comparison of the proposed algorithm against state-of-art algorithms on actual datasets demonstrates that the proposed algorithm achieves a significant improvement in performance.
Our work can be seen as building on and extending the work of @cite_4 @cite_5 , which learn linear stochastic policies. We go much further by learning a non-linear stochastic policy. Our work can also be seen as an off-line variant of the on-line REINFORCE algorithm @cite_25 .
@cite_5 @cite_4 @cite_25
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Eligibility traces have been shown to speed reinforcement learning, to make it more robust to hidden states, and to provide a link between Monte Carlo and temporal-difference methods. Here we generalize eligibility traces to off-policy learning, in which one learns about a policy different from the policy that generates the data. Off-policy methods can greatly multiply learning, as many policies can be learned about from the same data stream, and have been identified as particularly useful for learning about subgoals and temporally extended macro-actions. In this paper we consider the off-policy version of the policy evaluation problem, for which only one eligibility trace algorithm is known, a Monte Carlo method. We analyze and compare this and four new eligibility trace algorithms, emphasizing their relationships to the classical statistical technique known as importance sampling. Our main results are 1) to establish the consistency and bias properties of the new methods and 2) to empirically rank the new methods, showing improvement over one-step and Monte Carlo methods. Our results are restricted to model-free, table-lookup methods and to offline updating (at the end of each episode) although several of the algorithms could be applied more generally. This paper investigates the problem of policy learning in multiagent environments using the stochastic game framework, which we briefly overview. We introduce two properties as desirable for a learning agent when in the presence of other learning agents, namely rationality and convergence. We examine existing reinforcement learning algorithms according to these two properties and notice that they fail to simultaneously meet both criteria. We then contribute a new learning algorithm, WoLF policy hillclimbing, that is based on a simple principle: “learn quickly while losing, slowly while winning.” The algorithm is proven to be rational and we present empirical results for a number of stochastic games showing the algorithm converges. Increasing attention has been paid to reinforcement learning algorithms in recent years, partly due to successes in the theoretical analysis of their behavior in Markov environments. If the Markov assumption is removed, however, neither generally the algorithms nor the analyses continue to be usable. We propose and analyze a new learning algorithm to solve a certain class of non-Markov decision problems. Our algorithm applies to problems in which the environment is Markov, but the learner has restricted access to state information. The algorithm involves a Monte-Carlo policy evaluation combined with a policy improvement method that is similar to that of Markov decision problems and is guaranteed to converge to a local maximum. The algorithm operates in the space of stochastic policies, a space which can yield a policy that performs considerably better than any deterministic policy. Although the space of stochastic policies is continuous--even for a discrete action space--our algorithm is computationally tractable. We consider the problem of learning to act in partially observable, continuous-state-and-action worlds where we have abstract prior knowledge about the structure of the optimal policy in the form of a distribution over policies. Using ideas from planning-as-inference reductions and Bayesian unsupervised learning, we cast Markov Chain Monte Carlo as a stochastic, hill-climbing policy search algorithm. Importantly, this algorithm's search bias is directly tied to the prior and its MCMC proposal kernels, which means we can draw on the full Bayesian toolbox to express the search bias, including nonparametric priors and structured, recursive processes like grammars over action sequences. Furthermore, we can reason about uncertainty in the search bias itself by constructing a hierarchical prior and reasoning about latent variables that determine the abstract structure of the policy. This yields an adaptive search algorithm--our algorithm learns to learn a structured policy efficiently. We show how inference over the latent variables in these policy priors enables intra- and intertask transfer of abstract knowledge. We demonstrate the flexibility of this approach by learning meta search biases, by constructing a nonparametric finite state controller to model memory, by discovering motor primitives using a simple grammar over primitive actions, and by combining all three.