Information extracted from social media streams has been leveraged to forecast the outcome of a large number of real-world events, from political elections to stock market fluctuations. An increasing amount of studies demonstrates how the analysis of social media conversations provides cheap access to the wisdom of the crowd. However, extents and contexts in which such forecasting power can be effectively leveraged are still unverified at least in a systematic way. It is also unclear how social-media-based predictions compare to those based on alternative information sources. To address these issues, here we develop a machine learning framework that leverages social media streams to automatically identify and predict the outcomes of soccer matches. We focus in particular on matches in which at least one of the possible outcomes is deemed as highly unlikely by professional bookmakers. We argue that sport events offer a systematic approach for testing the predictive power of social media conversations, and allow to compare such power against the rigorous baselines set by external sources. Despite such strict baselines, our framework yields above 8 marginal profit when used to inform simple betting strategies. The system is based on real-time sentiment analysis and exploits data collected immediately before the game start, allowing for bets informed by its predictions. We first discuss the rationale behind our approach, then describe the learning framework, its prediction performance and the return it provides as compared to a set of betting strategies. To test our framework we use both historical Twitter data from the 2014 FIFA World Cup games (10 sample), and real-time Twitter data (full stream) collected by monitoring the conversations about all soccer matches of the four major European tournaments (FA Premier League, Serie A, La Liga, and Bundesliga), and the 2014 UEFA Champions League, during the period between October, 25th 2014 and November, 26th 2014.
Various works called for caution when using social media to predict exogenous events @cite_9 @cite_13 : in such cases, it is important to keep in mind that the usage of machine learning algorithms or statistical models that function as black boxes can yield to results which are not interpretable and misleading @cite_22 . For these reasons, when we designed our machine learning framework we based it on simple assumptions: the prediction dynamics are entirely explainable and observable in real time. In fact, our model relies only on one single feature (the average conversation sentiment measured over time) and it allows to interpret the predictions in a concise and clear way. Our hypotheses are also rooted on recent advances in social psychology that support the idea that collective attention enhances group emotions @cite_28 @cite_25 @cite_14 .
@cite_14 @cite_22 @cite_28 @cite_9 @cite_13 @cite_25
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The widescale use of machine learning algorithms to drive decision-making has highlighted the critical importance of ensuring the interpretability of such models in order to engender trust in their output. The state-of-the-art recommendation systems use black-box latent factor models that provide no explanation of why a recommendation has been made, as they abstract their decision processes to a high-dimensional latent space which is beyond the direct comprehension of humans. We propose a novel approach for extracting explanations from latent factor recommendation systems by training association rules on the output of a matrix factorisation black-box model. By taking advantage of the interpretable structure of association rules, we demonstrate that predictive accuracy of the recommendation model can be maintained whilst yielding explanations with high fidelity to the black-box model on a unique industry dataset. Our approach mitigates the accuracy-interpretability trade-off whilst avoiding the need to sacrifice flexibility or use external data sources. We also contribute to the ill-defined problem of evaluating interpretability. The recent years have witnessed the rise of accurate but obscure decision systems which hide the logic of their internal decision processes to the users. The lack of explanations for the decisions of black box systems is a key ethical issue, and a limitation to the adoption of machine learning components in socially sensitive and safety-critical contexts. Therefore, we need explanations that reveals the reasons why a predictor takes a certain decision. In this paper we focus on the problem of black box outcome explanation, i.e., explaining the reasons of the decision taken on a specific instance. We propose LORE, an agnostic method able to provide interpretable and faithful explanations. LORE first leans a local interpretable predictor on a synthetic neighborhood generated by a genetic algorithm. Then it derives from the logic of the local interpretable predictor a meaningful explanation consisting of: a decision rule, which explains the reasons of the decision; and a set of counterfactual rules, suggesting the changes in the instance's features that lead to a different outcome. Wide experiments show that LORE outperforms existing methods and baselines both in the quality of explanations and in the accuracy in mimicking the black box. Due to their complex nature, it is hard to characterize the ways in which machine learning models can misbehave or be exploited when deployed. Recent work on adversarial examples, i.e. inputs with minor perturbations that result in substantially different model predictions, is helpful in evaluating the robustness of these models by exposing the adversarial scenarios where they fail. However, these malicious perturbations are often unnatural, not semantically meaningful, and not applicable to complicated domains such as language. In this paper, we propose a framework to generate natural and legible adversarial examples that lie on the data manifold, by searching in semantic space of dense and continuous data representation, utilizing the recent advances in generative adversarial networks. We present generated adversaries to demonstrate the potential of the proposed approach for black-box classifiers for a wide range of applications such as image classification, textual entailment, and machine translation. We include experiments to show that the generated adversaries are natural, legible to humans, and useful in evaluating and analyzing black-box classifiers. Despite widespread adoption, machine learning models remain mostly black boxes. Understanding the reasons behind predictions is, however, quite important in assessing trust, which is fundamental if one plans to take action based on a prediction, or when choosing whether to deploy a new model. Such understanding also provides insights into the model, which can be used to transform an untrustworthy model or prediction into a trustworthy one. In this work, we propose LIME, a novel explanation technique that explains the predictions of any classifier in an interpretable and faithful manner, by learning an interpretable model locally varound the prediction. We also propose a method to explain models by presenting representative individual predictions and their explanations in a non-redundant way, framing the task as a submodular optimization problem. We demonstrate the flexibility of these methods by explaining different models for text (e.g. random forests) and image classification (e.g. neural networks). We show the utility of explanations via novel experiments, both simulated and with human subjects, on various scenarios that require trust: deciding if one should trust a prediction, choosing between models, improving an untrustworthy classifier, and identifying why a classifier should not be trusted.