In many traditional job scheduling settings, it is assumed that one knows the time it will take for a job to complete service. In such cases, strategies such as shortest job first can be used to improve performance in terms of measures such as the average time a job waits in the system. We consider the setting where the service time is not known, but is predicted by for example a machine learning algorithm. Our main result is the derivation, under natural assumptions, of formulae for the performance of several strategies for queueing systems that use predictions for service times in order to schedule jobs. As part of our analysis, we suggest the framework of the "price of misprediction," which offers a measure of the cost of using predicted information.
While traditional algorithmic analysis focuses on worst-case algorithm behavior, there is a growing movement to develop frameworks that go beyond worst-case analysis @cite_20 . While such frameworks have existed in the past, most notably via probabilistic analysis (e.g., @cite_18 ), semi-random models (e.g., @cite_4 @cite_5 ), and smoothed analysis @cite_21 , one natural approach that has received little attention is the use of machine-learning-based approaches to provide predictions to algorithms, with the goal of realizing provable performance guarantees. (The idea of using machine learning to give hints as to which heuristic algorithm to employ has been considered in meta-heuristics for several large-scale problems, most notably for satisfiability @cite_16 ; this is a distinct line of work.)
@cite_18 @cite_4 @cite_21 @cite_5 @cite_16 @cite_20
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Summary Background—Most machine learning approaches only provide a classification for binary responses. However, probabilities are required for risk estimation using individual patient characteristics. It has been shown recently that every statistical learning machine known to be consistent for a nonparametric regression problem is a probability machine that is provably consistent for this estimation problem. Objectives—The aim of this paper is to show how random forests and nearest neighbors can be used for consistent estimation of individual probabilities. Methods—Two random forest algorithms and two nearest neighbor algorithms are described in detail for estimation of individual probabilities. We discuss the consistency of random forests, nearest neighbors and other learning machines in detail. We conduct a simulation study to illustrate the validity of the methods. We exemplify the algorithms by analyzing two well-known data sets on the diagnosis of appendicitis and the diagnosis of diabetes in Pima Indians. Results—Simulations demonstrate the validity of the method. With the real data application, we show the accuracy and practicality of this approach. We provide sample code from R packages in which the probability estimation is already available. This means that all calculations can be performed using existing software. Conclusions—Random forest algorithms as well as nearest neighbor approaches are valid machine learning methods for estimating individual probabilities for binary responses. Freely available implementations are available in R and may be used for applications. With the increasing popularity of machine learning techniques, it has become common to see prediction algorithms operating within some larger process. However, the criteria by which we train these algorithms often differ from the ultimate criteria on which we evaluate them. This paper proposes an end-to-end approach for learning probabilistic machine learning models in a manner that directly captures the ultimate task-based objective for which they will be used, within the context of stochastic programming. We present three experimental evaluations of the proposed approach: a classical inventory stock problem, a real-world electrical grid scheduling task, and a real-world energy storage arbitrage task. We show that the proposed approach can outperform both traditional modeling and purely black-box policy optimization approaches in these applications. Recent work has shown that machine learning can automate and in some cases outperform hand crafted compiler optimizations. Central to such an approach is that machine learning techniques typically rely upon summaries or features of the program. The quality of these features is critical to the accuracy of the resulting machine learned algorithm; no machine learning method will work well with poorly chosen features. However, due to the size and complexity of programs, theoretically there are an infinite number of potential features to choose from. The compiler writer now has to expend effort in choosing the best features from this space. This paper develops a novel mechanism to automatically find those features which most improve the quality of the machine learned heuristic. The feature space is described by a grammar and is then searched with genetic programming and predictive modeling. We apply this technique to loop unrolling in GCC 4.3.1 and evaluate our approach on a Pentium 6. On a benchmark suite of 57 programs, GCC's hard-coded heuristic achieves only 3 of the maximum performance available, while a state of the art machine learning approach with hand-coded features obtains 59 . Our feature generation technique is able to achieve 76 of the maximum available speedup, outperforming existing approaches. Most tasks require a person or an automated system to reason -- to reach conclusions based on available information. The framework of probabilistic graphical models, presented in this book, provides a general approach for this task. The approach is model-based, allowing interpretable models to be constructed and then manipulated by reasoning algorithms. These models can also be learned automatically from data, allowing the approach to be used in cases where manually constructing a model is difficult or even impossible. Because uncertainty is an inescapable aspect of most real-world applications, the book focuses on probabilistic models, which make the uncertainty explicit and provide models that are more faithful to reality. Probabilistic Graphical Models discusses a variety of models, spanning Bayesian networks, undirected Markov networks, discrete and continuous models, and extensions to deal with dynamical systems and relational data. For each class of models, the text describes the three fundamental cornerstones: representation, inference, and learning, presenting both basic concepts and advanced techniques. Finally, the book considers the use of the proposed framework for causal reasoning and decision making under uncertainty. The main text in each chapter provides the detailed technical development of the key ideas. Most chapters also include boxes with additional material: skill boxes, which describe techniques; case study boxes, which discuss empirical cases related to the approach described in the text, including applications in computer vision, robotics, natural language understanding, and computational biology; and concept boxes, which present significant concepts drawn from the material in the chapter. Instructors (and readers) can group chapters in various combinations, from core topics to more technically advanced material, to suit their particular needs.