Coordination recognition and subtle pattern prediction of future trajectories play a significant role when modeling interactive behaviors of multiple agents. Due to the essential property of uncertainty in the future evolution, deterministic predictors are not sufficiently safe and robust. In order to tackle the task of probabilistic prediction for multiple, interactive entities, we propose a coordination and trajectory prediction system (CTPS), which has a hierarchical structure including a macro-level coordination recognition module and a micro-level subtle pattern prediction module which solves a probabilistic generation task. We illustrate two types of representation of the coordination variable: categorized and real-valued, and compare their effects and advantages based on empirical studies. We also bring the ideas of Bayesian deep learning into deep generative models to generate diversified prediction hypotheses. The proposed system is tested on multi-ple driving datasets in various traffic scenarios, which achieves better performance than baseline approaches in terms of a set of evaluation metrics. The results also show that using categorized coordination can better capture multi-modality and generate more diversified samples than the real-valued coordination, while the latter can generate prediction hypotheses with smaller errors with a sacrifice of sample diversity. Moreover, employing neural networks with weight uncertainty is able to generate samples with larger variance and diversity.
Many research efforts have been devoted to forecasting behaviors and trajectories of on-road vehicles and pedestrians. Many rule-based and model-based approaches were proposed to estimate future states on time-series data, such as variants of Kalman filter (KF) applied to system dynamic models @cite_19 , auto-regressive models @cite_5 and time-series analysis @cite_0 . However, these approaches are not able to incorporate the coordination among highly interactive agents due to the limited model flexibility. Therefore, more learning-based approaches were put forward to tackle complicated scenarios. In @cite_14 , a variational neural network was employed to predict future trajectories at an urban intersection. In @cite_3 , a dynamic Bayesian network was designed to predict driver maneuvers in highway scenarios. Other methodologies in the existing literature include hidden Markov models @cite_13 , Gaussian mixture models @cite_22 , Gaussian process @cite_15 and inverse reinforcement learning @cite_1 @cite_11 . In this paper, we propose a hierarchical prediction system based on Bayesian generative modeling and variational inference, which can approximate the data distribution and capture multi-modalities.
@cite_14 @cite_22 @cite_1 @cite_3 @cite_0 @cite_19 @cite_5 @cite_15 @cite_13 @cite_11
2099040926 2004641798 2056358962 2082585576
This paper develops a probabilistic anticipation algorithm for dynamic objects observed by an autonomous robot in an urban environment. Predictive Gaussian mixture models are used due to their ability to probabilistically capture continuous and discrete obstacle decisions and behaviors; the predictive system uses the probabilistic output (state estimate and covariance) of a tracking system and map of the environment to compute the probability distribution over future obstacle states for a specified anticipation horizon. A Gaussian splitting method is proposed based on the sigma-point transform and the nonlinear dynamics function, which enables increased accuracy as the number of mixands grows. An approach to caching elements of this optimal splitting method is proposed, in order to enable real-time implementation. Simulation results and evaluations on data from the research community demonstrate that the proposed algorithm can accurately anticipate the probability distributions over future states of nonlinear systems. Future vehicle systems for active pedestrian safety will not only require a high recognition performance but also an accurate analysis of the developing traffic situation. In this paper, we present a study on pedestrian path prediction and action classification at short subsecond time intervals. We consider four representative approaches: two novel approaches (based on Gaussian process dynamical models and probabilistic hierarchical trajectory matching) that use augmented features derived from dense optical flow and two approaches as baseline that use positional information only (a Kalman filter and its extension to interacting multiple models). In experiments using stereo vision data obtained from a vehicle, we investigate the accuracy of path prediction and action classification at various time horizons, the effect of various errors (image localization, vehicle egomotion estimation), and the benefit of the proposed approaches. The scenario of interest is that of a crossing pedestrian, who might stop or continue walking at the road curbside. Results indicate similar performance of the four approaches on walking motion, with near-linear dynamics. During stopping, however, the two newly proposed approaches, with nonlinear and or higher order models and augmented motion features, achieve a more accurate position prediction of 10-50 cm at a time horizon of 0-0.77 s around the stopping event. In this paper, we focus on the problem of motion tracking in unknown environments using visual and inertial sensors. We term this estimation task visual-inertial odometry (VIO), in analogy to the well-known visual-odometry problem. We present a detailed study of extended Kalman filter (EKF)-based VIO algorithms, by comparing both their theoretical properties and empirical performance. We show that an EKF formulation where the state vector comprises a sliding window of poses (the multi-state-constraint Kalman filter (MSCKF)) attains better accuracy, consistency, and computational efficiency than the simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) formulation of the EKF, in which the state vector contains the current pose and the features seen by the camera. Moreover, we prove that both types of EKF approaches are inconsistent, due to the way in which Jacobians are computed. Specifically, we show that the observability properties of the EKF's linearized system models do not match those of the underlying system, which causes the filters to underestimate the uncertainty in the state estimates. Based on our analysis, we propose a novel, real-time EKF-based VIO algorithm, which achieves consistent estimation by (i) ensuring the correct observability properties of its linearized system model, and (ii) performing online estimation of the camera-to-inertial measurement unit (IMU) calibration parameters. This algorithm, which we term MSCKF 2.0, is shown to achieve accuracy and consistency higher than even an iterative, sliding-window fixed-lag smoother, in both Monte Carlo simulations and real-world testing. In this paper, we study the safe navigation of a mobile robot through crowds of dynamic agents with uncertain trajectories. Existing algorithms suffer from the “freezing robot” problem: once the environment surpasses a certain level of complexity, the planner decides that all forward paths are unsafe, and the robot freezes in place (or performs unnecessary maneuvers) to avoid collisions. Since a feasible path typically exists, this behavior is suboptimal. Existing approaches have focused on reducing the predictive uncertainty for individual agents by employing more informed models or heuristically limiting the predictive covariance to prevent this overcautious behavior. In this work, we demonstrate that both the individual prediction and the predictive uncertainty have little to do with the frozen robot problem. Our key insight is that dynamic agents solve the frozen robot problem by engaging in “joint collision avoidance”: They cooperatively make room to create feasible trajectories. We develop IGP, a nonparametric statistical model based on dependent output Gaussian processes that can estimate crowd interaction from data. Our model naturally captures the non-Markov nature of agent trajectories, as well as their goal-driven navigation. We then show how planning in this model can be efficiently implemented using particle based inference. Lastly, we evaluate our model on a dataset of pedestrians entering and leaving a building, first comparing the model with actual pedestrians, and find that the algorithm either outperforms human pedestrians or performs very similarly to the pedestrians. We also present an experiment where a covariance reduction method results in highly overcautious behavior, while our model performs desirably.