A rising topic in computational journalism is how to enhance the diversity in news served to subscribers to foster exploration behavior in news reading. Despite the success of preference learning in personalized news recommendation, their over-exploitation causes filter bubble that isolates readers from opposing viewpoints and hurts long-term user experiences with lack of serendipity. Since news providers can recommend neither opposite nor diversified opinions if unpopularity of these articles is surely predicted, they can only bet on the articles whose forecasts of click-through rate involve high variability (risks) or high estimation errors (uncertainties). We propose a novel Bayesian model of uncertainty-aware scoring and ranking for news articles. The Bayesian binary classifier models probability of success (defined as a news click) as a Beta-distributed random variable conditional on a vector of the context (user features, article features, and other contextual features). The posterior of the contextual coefficients can be computed efficiently using a low-rank version of Laplace's method via thin Singular Value Decomposition. Efficiencies in personalized targeting of exceptional articles, which are chosen by each subscriber in test period, are evaluated on real-world news datasets. The proposed estimator slightly outperformed existing training and scoring algorithms, in terms of efficiency in identifying successful outliers.
Beta-binomial-logit models have been used for robust classification whereas their over-dispersion has been supplied by not a regression formula but by a scholar hyperparameter (e.g., @cite_31 ). Contextual-risk models have been used in regression tasks such as Gaussian Process (GP) regression with input-dependent variances @cite_6 , while have been uncommon in classification tasks. Our derivation of the custom Laplace approximation and marginal likelihood are based on the techniques in GP classification @cite_38 , for which Expectation Propagation (EP; @cite_16 ) is also applicable whereas we avoided too complicated formulas of EP. Nonparametric conditional density estimation (e.g., @cite_23 @cite_7 ) naturally introduces input-dependent noises while simpler forms are preferable in our task. @math -logistic regression @cite_34 is another robust classifier and Bayesian estimation of robust classifiers produces robust credible intervals (e.g., @cite_36 ), while their risks do not depend on inputs. Overall, to the best of our knowledge, we provide the most parsimonious Bayesian classifier that suits recommendation of outlying items based on input-dependent variabilities and uncertainties.
@cite_38 @cite_7 @cite_36 @cite_6 @cite_34 @cite_23 @cite_31 @cite_16
2221087461 2113290770 2803642127 2949712484
A Beta-Binomial-Logit model is a Beta-Binomial model with covariate information incorporated via a logistic regression. Posterior propriety of a Bayesian Beta-Binomial-Logit model can be data-dependent for improper hyper-prior distributions. Various researchers in the literature have unknowingly used improper posterior distributions or have given incorrect statements about posterior propriety because checking posterior propriety can be challenging due to the complicated functional form of a Beta-Binomial-Logit model. We derive data-dependent necessary and sufficient conditions for posterior propriety within a class of hyper-prior distributions that encompass those used in previous studies. In this paper, we theoretically study the problem of binary classification in the presence of random classification noise—the learner, instead of seeing the true labels, sees labels that have independently been flipped with some small probability. Moreover, random label noise is class-conditional— the flip probability depends on the class. We provide two approaches to suitably modify any given surrogate loss function. First, we provide a simple unbiased estimator of any loss, and obtain performance bounds for empirical risk minimization in the presence of iid data with noisy labels. If the loss function satisfies a simple symmetry condition, we show that the method leads to an efficient algorithm for empirical minimization. Second, by leveraging a reduction of risk minimization under noisy labels to classification with weighted 0-1 loss, we suggest the use of a simple weighted surrogate loss, for which we are able to obtain strong empirical risk bounds. This approach has a very remarkable consequence — methods used in practice such as biased SVM and weighted logistic regression are provably noise-tolerant. On a synthetic non-separable dataset, our methods achieve over 88 accuracy even when 40 of the labels are corrupted, and are competitive with respect to recently proposed methods for dealing with label noise in several benchmark datasets. We study binary classification in the presence of class-conditional random noise, where the learner gets to see labels that are flipped independently with some probability, and where the flip probability depends on the class. Our goal is to devise learning algorithms that are efficient and statistically consistent with respect to commonly used utility measures. In particular, we look at a family of measures motivated by their application in domains where cost-sensitive learning is necessary (for example, when there is class imbalance). In contrast to most of the existing literature on consistent classification that are limited to the classical 0-1 loss, our analysis includes more general utility measures such as the AM measure (arithmetic mean of True Positive Rate and True Negative Rate). For this problem of cost-sensitive learning under class-conditional random noise, we develop two approaches that are based on suitably modifying surrogate losses. First, we provide a simple unbiased estimator of any loss, and obtain performance bounds for empirical utility maximization in the presence of i.i.d. data with noisy labels. If the loss function satis_es a simple symmetry condition, we show that using unbiased estimator leads to an efficient algorithm for empirical maximization. Second, by leveraging a reduction of risk minimization under noisy labels to classification with weighted 0-1 loss, we suggest the use of a simple weighted surrogate loss, for which we are able to obtain strong utility bounds. This approach implies that methods already used in practice, such as biased SVM and weighted logistic regression, are provably noise-tolerant. For two practically important measures in our family, we show that the proposed methods are competitive with respect to recently proposed methods for dealing with label noise in several benchmark data sets. In regression analysis of counts, a lack of simple and efficient algorithms for posterior computation has made Bayesian approaches appear unattractive and thus underdeveloped. We propose a lognormal and gamma mixed negative binomial (NB) regression model for counts, and present efficient closed-form Bayesian inference; unlike conventional Poisson models, the proposed approach has two free parameters to include two different kinds of random effects, and allows the incorporation of prior information, such as sparsity in the regression coefficients. By placing a gamma distribution prior on the NB dispersion parameter r, and connecting a lognormal distribution prior with the logit of the NB probability parameter p, efficient Gibbs sampling and variational Bayes inference are both developed. The closed-form updates are obtained by exploiting conditional conjugacy via both a compound Poisson representation and a Polya-Gamma distribution based data augmentation approach. The proposed Bayesian inference can be implemented routinely, while being easily generalizable to more complex settings involving multivariate dependence structures. The algorithms are illustrated using real examples.