The thermal subsystem of the Mars Express (MEX) spacecraft keeps the on-board equipment within its predefined operating temperatures range. To plan and optimize the scientific operations of MEX, its operators need to estimate in advance, as accurately as possible, the power consumption of the thermal subsystem. The remaining power can then be allocated for scientific purposes. We present a machine learning pipeline for efficiently constructing accurate predictive models for predicting the power of the thermal subsystem on board MEX. In particular, we employ state-of-the-art feature engineering approaches for transforming raw telemetry data, in turn used for constructing accurate models with different state-of-the-art machine learning methods. We show that the proposed pipeline considerably improve our previous (competition-winning) work in terms of time efficiency and predictive performance. Moreover, while achieving superior predictive performance, the constructed models also provide important insight into the spacecraft's behavior, allowing for further analyses and optimal planning of MEX's operation.
Machine learning offers an ample amount of methods that tackle predictive tasks in real life domains @cite_8 @cite_23 . These methods have been applied for predicting discrete output values (classification), continuous output values (regression), even structured outputs as in gene networks, image classification, text categorization etc @cite_24 .
@cite_24 @cite_23 @cite_8
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Many structured prediction tasks in machine vision have a collection of acceptable answers, instead of one definitive ground truth answer. Segmentation of images, for example, is subject to human labeling bias. Similarly, there are multiple possible pixel values that could plausibly complete occluded image regions. State-of-the art supervised learning methods are typically optimized to make a single test-time prediction for each query, failing to find other modes in the output space. Existing methods that allow for sampling often sacrifice speed or accuracy. We introduce a simple method for training a neural network, which enables diverse structured predictions to be made for each test-time query. For a single input, we learn to predict a range of possible answers. We compare favorably to methods that seek diversity through an ensemble of networks. Such stochastic multiple choice learning faces mode collapse, where one or more ensemble members fail to receive any training signal. Our best performing solution can be deployed for various tasks, and just involves small modifications to the existing single-mode architecture, loss function, and training regime. We demonstrate that our method results in quantitative improvements across three challenging tasks: 2D image completion, 3D volume estimation, and flow prediction. Recent work has shown that machine learning can automate and in some cases outperform hand crafted compiler optimizations. Central to such an approach is that machine learning techniques typically rely upon summaries or features of the program. The quality of these features is critical to the accuracy of the resulting machine learned algorithm; no machine learning method will work well with poorly chosen features. However, due to the size and complexity of programs, theoretically there are an infinite number of potential features to choose from. The compiler writer now has to expend effort in choosing the best features from this space. This paper develops a novel mechanism to automatically find those features which most improve the quality of the machine learned heuristic. The feature space is described by a grammar and is then searched with genetic programming and predictive modeling. We apply this technique to loop unrolling in GCC 4.3.1 and evaluate our approach on a Pentium 6. On a benchmark suite of 57 programs, GCC's hard-coded heuristic achieves only 3 of the maximum performance available, while a state of the art machine learning approach with hand-coded features obtains 59 . Our feature generation technique is able to achieve 76 of the maximum available speedup, outperforming existing approaches. Machine learning often relies on costly labeled data, and this impedes its application to new classification and information extraction problems. This has motivated the development of methods for leveraging abundant prior knowledge about these problems, including methods for lightly supervised learning using model expectation constraints. Building on this work, we envision an interactive training paradigm in which practitioners perform evaluation, analyze errors, and provide and refine expectation constraints in a closed loop. In this paper, we focus on several key subproblems in this paradigm that can be cast as selecting a representative sample of the unlabeled data for the practitioner to inspect. To address these problems, we propose stratified sampling methods that use model expectations as a proxy for latent output variables. In classification and sequence labeling experiments, these sampling strategies reduce accuracy evaluation effort by as much as 53 , provide more reliable estimates of @math for rare labels, and aid in the specification and refinement of constraints. Research into methods for reasoning under uncertainty is currently one of the most exciting areas of artificial intelligence, largely because it has recently become possible to record, store, and process large amounts of data. While impressive achievements have been made in pattern classification problems such as handwritten character recognition, face detection, speaker identification, and prediction of gene function, it is even more exciting that researchers are on the verge of introducing systems that can perform large-scale combinatorial analyses of data, decomposing the data into interacting components. For example, computational methods for automatic scene analysis are now emerging in the computer vision community. These methods decompose an input image into its constituent objects, lighting conditions, motion patterns, etc. Two of the main challenges are finding effective representations and models in specific applications and finding efficient algorithms for inference and learning in these models. In this paper, we advocate the use of graph-based probability models and their associated inference and learning algorithms. We review exact techniques and various approximate, computationally efficient techniques, including iterated conditional modes, the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm, Gibbs sampling, the mean field method, variational techniques, structured variational techniques and the sum-product algorithm ("loopy" belief propagation). We describe how each technique can be applied in a vision model of multiple, occluding objects and contrast the behaviors and performances of the techniques using a unifying cost function, free energy.