The computational costs of inference and planning have confined Bayesian model-based reinforcement learning to one of two dismal fates: powerful Bayes-adaptive planning but only for simplistic models, or powerful, Bayesian non-parametric models but using simple, myopic planning strategies such as Thompson sampling. We ask whether it is feasible and truly beneficial to combine rich probabilistic models with a closer approximation to fully Bayesian planning. First, we use a collection of counterexamples to show formal problems with the over-optimism inherent in Thompson sampling. Then we leverage state-of-the-art techniques in efficient Bayes-adaptive planning and non-parametric Bayesian methods to perform qualitatively better than both existing conventional algorithms and Thompson sampling on two contextual bandit-like problems.
Many researchers have considered powerful statistical models in the context of sequential decision-making @cite_26 @cite_8 , including in exploration-exploitation settings @cite_0 @cite_13 . Non-parametric models have been considered in the context of control before @cite_2 @cite_13 but with an emphasis on modeling the data rather than planning. In @cite_24 , the authors consider factored mdp s whose transitions are modeled using Bayesian Networks. They demonstrate the advantages of having an appropriate prior to capture the existing structure in the true dynamics, at least in a case in which the problems of safe exploration do not arise. For planning, they propose an online Monte-Carlo algorithm with an approximate sampling scheme, however the forward-search is conducted with a depth of 2 and a small branching factor, presumably limiting the benefits of Bayes-adaptivity.
@cite_26 @cite_8 @cite_0 @cite_24 @cite_2 @cite_13
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Objective Build probabilistic topic model representations of hospital admissions processes and compare the ability of such models to predict clinical order patterns as compared to preconstructed order sets. @PARASPLIT Materials and Methods The authors evaluated the first 24 hours of structured electronic health record data for > 10 K inpatients. Drawing an analogy between structured items (e.g., clinical orders) to words in a text document, the authors performed latent Dirichlet allocation probabilistic topic modeling. These topic models use initial clinical information to predict clinical orders for a separate validation set of > 4 K patients. The authors evaluated these topic model-based predictions vs existing human-authored order sets by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, precision, and recall for subsequent clinical orders. @PARASPLIT Results Existing order sets predict clinical orders used within 24 hours with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.81, precision 16 , and recall 35 . This can be improved to 0.90, 24 , and 47 ( P < 10−20) by using probabilistic topic models to summarize clinical data into up to 32 topics. Many of these latent topics yield natural clinical interpretations (e.g., “critical care,” “pneumonia,” “neurologic evaluation”). @PARASPLIT Discussion Existing order sets tend to provide nonspecific, process-oriented aid, with usability limitations impairing more precise, patient-focused support. Algorithmic summarization has the potential to breach this usability barrier by automatically inferring patient context, but with potential tradeoffs in interpretability. @PARASPLIT Conclusion Probabilistic topic modeling provides an automated approach to detect thematic trends in patient care and generate decision support content. A potential use case finds related clinical orders for decision support. Consider a Markov decision process (MDP) that admits a set of state-action features, which can linearly express the process's probabilistic transition model. We propose a parametric Q-learning algorithm that finds an approximate-optimal policy using a sample size proportional to the feature dimension @math and invariant with respect to the size of the state space. To further improve its sample efficiency, we exploit the monotonicity property and intrinsic noise structure of the Bellman operator, provided the existence of anchor state-actions that imply implicit non-negativity in the feature space. We augment the algorithm using techniques of variance reduction, monotonicity preservation, and confidence bounds. It is proved to find a policy which is @math -optimal from any initial state with high probability using @math sample transitions for arbitrarily large-scale MDP with a discount factor @math . A matching information-theoretical lower bound is proved, confirming the sample optimality of the proposed method with respect to all parameters (up to polylog factors). This thesis addresses the question of planning under uncertainty within a time-dependent changing environment. Original motivation for this work came from the problem of building an autonomous agent able to coordinate with its uncertain environment; this environment being composed of other agents communicating their intentions or non-controllable processes for which some discrete-event model is available. We investigate several approaches for modeling continuous time-dependency in the framework of Markov Decision Processes (MDPs), leading us to a definition of Temporal Markov Decision Problems. Then our approach focuses on two separate paradigms. First, we investigate time-dependent problems as processes and describe them through the formalism of Time-dependent MDPs (TMDPs). We extend the existing results concerning optimality equations and present a new Value Iteration algorithm based on piecewise polynomial function representations in order to solve a more general class of TMDPs. This paves the way to a more general discussion on parametric actions in hybrid state and action spaces MDPs with continuous time. In a second time, we investigate the option of separately modeling the concurrent contributions of exogenous events. This approach of modeling leads to the use of Generalized Semi-Markov Decision Processes (GSMDP). We establish a link between the general framework of Discrete Events Systems Specification (DEVS) and the formalism of GSMDP, allowing us to build sound discrete-event compatible simulators. Then we introduce a simulation-based Policy Iteration approach for explicit-event Temporal Markov Decision Problems. This algorithmic contribution brings together results from simulation theory, forward search in MDPs, and statistical learning theory. The implicit-event approach was tested on a specific version of the Mars rover planning problem and on a drone patrol mission planning problem while the explicit-event approach was evaluated on a subway network control problem. We consider the problem of multi-task reinforcement learning, where the agent needs to solve a sequence of Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) chosen randomly from a fixed but unknown distribution. We model the distribution over MDPs using a hierarchical Bayesian infinite mixture model. For each novel MDP, we use the previously learned distribution as an informed prior for modelbased Bayesian reinforcement learning. The hierarchical Bayesian framework provides a strong prior that allows us to rapidly infer the characteristics of new environments based on previous environments, while the use of a nonparametric model allows us to quickly adapt to environments we have not encountered before. In addition, the use of infinite mixtures allows for the model to automatically learn the number of underlying MDP components. We evaluate our approach and show that it leads to significant speedups in convergence to an optimal policy after observing only a small number of tasks.