Understanding the intentions of drivers at intersections is a critical component for autonomous vehicles. Urban intersections that do not have traffic signals are a common epicentre of highly variable vehicle movement and interactions. We present a method for predicting driver intent at urban intersections through multi-modal trajectory prediction with uncertainty. Our method is based on recurrent neural networks combined with a mixture density network output layer. To consolidate the multi-modal nature of the output probability distribution, we introduce a clustering algorithm that extracts the set of possible paths that exist in the prediction output, and ranks them according to likelihood. To verify the method's performance and generalizability, we present a real-world dataset that consists of over 23,000 vehicles traversing five different intersections, collected using a vehicle mounted Lidar based tracking system. An array of metrics is used to demonstrate the performance of the model against several baselines.
Maneuver based models are those that predict the intention of a driver by classifying intention into a known set of groups, which can include lane changing, stopping, and turns at an intersection. Once the maneuver has been predicted, the vehicle's trajectory can be assumed to match that of the particular maneuver. There have been several approaches to this problem recently, with the use of Support Vector Machines @cite_3 , Hidden Markov Models @cite_26 , and Bayesian Networks @cite_0 . The author's previous work @cite_25 demonstrates the classifying accuracy of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) given data from a Lidar based smart vehicle at an unsignalized intersection. @cite_31 demonstrate the classification accuracy of LSTMs at multi-lane, signalized intersections with dedicated turning lanes, as in the NGSIM Lankershim and Peachtree datasets.
@cite_26 @cite_3 @cite_0 @cite_31 @cite_25
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Maneuver recognition and trajectory prediction of moving vehicles are two important and challenging tasks of advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) at urban intersections. This paper presents a continuing work to handle these two problems in a consistent framework using non-parametric regression models. We provide a feature normalization scheme and present a strategy for constructing three-dimensional Gaussian process regression models from two-dimensional trajectory patterns. These models can capture spatio-temporal characteristics of traffic situations. Given a new, partially observed and unlabeled trajectory, the maneuver can be recognized online by comparing the likelihoods of the observation data for each individual regression model. Furthermore, we take advantage of our representation for trajectory prediction. Because predicting possible trajectories at urban intersection involves obvious multimodalities and non-linearities, we employ the Monte Carlo method to handle these difficulties. This approach allows the incremental prediction of possible trajectories in situations where unimodal estimators such as Kalman Filters would not work well. The proposed framework is evaluated experimentally in urban intersection scenarios using real-world data. Accurate maneuver prediction for surrounding vehicles enables intelligent vehicles to make safe and socially compliant decisions in advance, thus improving the safety and comfort of the driving. The main contribution of this paper is proposing a practical, high-performance, and low-cost maneuver-prediction approach for intelligent vehicles. Our approach is based on a dynamic Bayesian network, which exploits multiple predictive features, namely, historical states of predicting vehicles, road structures, as well as traffic interactions for inferring the probability of each maneuver. The paper also presents algorithms of feature extraction for the network. Our approach is verified on real traffic data in large-scale publicly available datasets. The results show that our approach can recognize the lane-change maneuvers with an F1 score of 80 and an advanced prediction time of 3.75 s, which greatly improves the performance on prediction compared to other baseline approaches. Forecasting the motion of surrounding vehicles is a critical ability for an autonomous vehicle deployed in complex traffic. Motion of all vehicles in a scene is governed by the traffic context, i.e., the motion and relative spatial configuration of neighboring vehicles. In this paper we propose an LSTM encoder-decoder model that uses convolutional social pooling as an improvement to social pooling layers for robustly learning interdependencies in vehicle motion. Additionally, our model outputs a multi-modal predictive distribution over future trajectories based on maneuver classes. We evaluate our model using the publicly available NGSIM US-101 and I-80 datasets. Our results show improvement over the state of the art in terms of RMS values of prediction error and negative log-likelihoods of true future trajectories under the model's predictive distribution. We also present a qualitative analysis of the model's predicted distributions for various traffic scenarios. Forecasting the motion of surrounding vehicles is a critical ability for an autonomous vehicle deployed in complex traffic. Motion of all vehicles in a scene is governed by the traffic context, i.e., the motion and relative spatial configuration of neighboring vehicles. In this paper we propose an LSTM encoder-decoder model that uses convolutional social pooling as an improvement to social pooling layers for robustly learning interdependencies in vehicle motion. Additionally, our model outputs a multi-modal predictive distribution over future trajectories based on maneuver classes. We evaluate our model using the publicly available NGSIM US-101 and I-80 datasets. Our results show improvement over the state of the art in terms of RMS values of prediction error and negative log-likelihoods of true future trajectories under the model's predictive distribution. We also present a qualitative analysis of the model's predicted distributions for various traffic scenarios.