Time is an important feature in many applications involving events that occur synchronously and or asynchronously. To effectively consume time information, recent studies have focused on designing new architectures. In this paper, we take an orthogonal but complementary approach by providing a model-agnostic vector representation for time, called Time2Vec, that can be easily imported into many existing and future architectures and improve their performances. We show on a range of models and problems that replacing the notion of time with its Time2Vec representation improves the performance of the final model.
There is a long history of algorithms for predictive modeling in time series analysis. They include auto-regressive techniques @cite_40 that predict future measurements in a sequence based on a window of past measurements. Since it is not always clear how long the window of past measurements should be, hidden Markov models @cite_54 , dynamic Bayesian networks @cite_9 , and dynamic conditional random fields @cite_46 use hidden states as a finite memory that can remember information arbitrarily far in the past. These models can be seen as special cases of recurrent neural networks @cite_19 . They typically assume that inputs are synchronous, arrive at regular time intervals, and that the underlying process is stationary with respect to time. It is possible to aggregate asynchronous events into time-bins and to use synchronous models over the bins @cite_18 @cite_56 . Asynchronous events can also be directly modeled with point processes ( , Poisson, Cox, and Hawkes point processes) @cite_13 @cite_30 @cite_29 @cite_58 @cite_57 and continuous time normalizing flows @cite_48 . Alternatively, one can also interpolate or make predictions at arbitrary time stamps with Gaussian processes @cite_31 or support vector regression @cite_51 .
@cite_30 @cite_18 @cite_31 @cite_48 @cite_9 @cite_54 @cite_29 @cite_56 @cite_57 @cite_19 @cite_40 @cite_51 @cite_46 @cite_58 @cite_13
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textabstractForecasting financial time series using past observations has been a significant topic of interest. While temporal relationships in the data exist, they are difficult to analyze and predict accurately due to the non-linear trends and noise present in the series. We propose to learn these dependencies by a convolutional neural network. In particular the focus is on multivariate time series forecasting. Effectively, we use multiple financial time series as input in the neural network, thus conditioning the forecast of a time series x(t) on both its own history as well as that of a second (or third) time series y(t). Training a model on multiple stock series allows the network to exploit the correlation structure between these series so that the network can learn the market dynamics in shorter sequences of data. We show that long-term temporal dependencies in and between financial time series can be learned by means of a deep convolutional neural network based on the WaveNet model [2]. The network makes use of dilated convolutions applied to multiple time series so that the receptive field of the network is wide enough to learn both short and long-term dependencies. The architecture includes batch normalization and uses a 1 × k convolution with parametrized skip connections from the input time series as well as the time series we condition on, in this way learning long-term interdependencies in an efficient manner [1]. This improves the forecast, while at the same time limiting the requirement for a long historical price series and reducing the noise. Knowing the strong performance of CNNs on classification problems we show that they can be applied successfully to forecasting financial time series, without the need of large samples of data. We compare the performance of the WaveNet model to a state-of-the-art fully convolutional network (FCN), and an autoregressive model popular in econometrics and show that our model is much better able to learn important dependencies in between financial time series resulting in a more robust and accurate forecast. We introduce a new statistical model for time series that iteratively segments data into regimes with approximately linear dynamics and learns the parameters of each of these linear regimes. This model combines and generalizes two of the most widely used stochastic time-series models— hidden Markov models and linear dynamical systems—and is closely related to models that are widely used in the control and econometrics literatures. It can also be derived by extending the mixture of experts neural network (Jacobs, Jordan, Nowlan, & Hinton, 1991) to its fully dynamical version, in which both expert and gating networks are recurrent. Inferring the posterior probabilities of the hidden states of this model is computationally intractable, and therefore the exact expectation maximization (EM) algorithm cannot be applied. However, we present a variational approximation that maximizes a lower bound on the log-likelihood and makes use of both the forward and backward recursions for hidden Markov models and the Kalman filter recursions for linear dynamical systems. We tested the algorithm on artificial data sets and a natural data set of respiration force from a patient with sleep apnea. The results suggest that variational approximations are a viable method for inference and learning in switching state-space models. We present a probabilistic generative model for timing deviations in expressive music performance. The structure of the proposed model is equivalent to a switching state space model. The switch variables correspond to discrete note locations as in a musical score. The continuous hidden variables denote the tempo. We formulate two well known music recognition problems, namely tempo tracking and automatic transcription (rhythm quantization) as filtering and maximum a posteriori (MAP) state estimation tasks. Exact computation of posterior features such as the MAP state is intractable in this model class, so we introduce Monte Carlo methods for integration and optimization. We compare Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods (such as Gibbs sampling, simulated annealing and iterative improvement) and sequential Monte Carlo methods (particle filters). Our simulation results suggest better results with sequential methods. The methods can be applied in both online and batch scenarios such as tempo tracking and transcription and are thus potentially useful in a number of music applications such as adaptive automatic accompaniment, score typesetting and music information retrieval. Automatic sleep staging has been often treated as a simple classification problem that aims at determining the label of individual target polysomnography epochs one at a time. In this paper, we tackle the task as a sequence-to-sequence classification problem that receives a sequence of multiple epochs as input and classifies all of their labels at once. For this purpose, we propose a hierarchical recurrent neural network named SeqSleepNet (source code is available at http: github.com pquochuy SeqSleepNet ). At the epoch processing level, the network consists of a filterbank layer tailored to learn frequency-domain filters for preprocessing and an attention-based recurrent layer designed for short-term sequential modeling. At the sequence processing level, a recurrent layer placed on top of the learned epoch-wise features for long-term modeling of sequential epochs. The classification is then carried out on the output vectors at every time step of the top recurrent layer to produce the sequence of output labels. Despite being hierarchical, we present a strategy to train the network in an end-to-end fashion. We show that the proposed network outperforms the state-of-the-art approaches, achieving an overall accuracy, macro F1-score, and Cohen’s kappa of 87.1 , 83.3 , and 0.815 on a publicly available dataset with 200 subjects.