In this paper, we propose a method of ranking recently created Twitter accounts according to their prospective popularity. Early detection of new promising accounts is useful for trend prediction, viral marketing, user recommendation, and so on. New accounts are, however, difficult to evaluate because they have not established their reputations, and we cannot apply existing link-based or other popularity-based account evaluation methods. Our method first finds "early adopters", i.e., users who often find new good information sources earlier than others. Our method then regards new accounts followed by good early adopters as promising, even if they do not have many followers now. In order to find good early adopters, we estimate the frequency of link propagation from each account, i.e., how many times the follow links from the account have been copied by its followers. If its followers have copied many of its follow links in the past, the account must be an early adopter, who find good information sources earlier than its followers. We develop a method of inferring which links are created by copying which links. One advantage of our method is that our method only uses information that can be easily obtained only by crawling neighbors of the target accounts in the current Twitter graph. We evaluated our method by an experiment on Twitter data. We chose then-new accounts from an old snapshot of Twitter, compute their ranking by our method, and compare it with the number of followers the accounts currently have. The result shows that our method produces better rankings than various baseline methods, especially for new accounts that have only a few followers.
In sociology, there has been extensive research on the behavior of people in the real world. The results of the research are also helpful for understanding the behavior of people on social media. There have been some studies that have shown that the behavior reported in the past research in sociology is also observed on social media @cite_17 @cite_1 @cite_11 @cite_18 . One of such studies on the behavior of people has proposed the concept of triadic closure for explaining how people behave when they connect to each other. Our method uses this concept for inferring which links are created by copying which links.
@cite_18 @cite_11 @cite_1 @cite_17
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The fact that similarity breeds connections, the principle of homophily, has been well-studied in existing sociology literature. Several studies have observed this phenomenon by conducting surveys on human subjects. These studies have concluded that new ties are formed between similar individuals. This phenomenon has been used to explain several socio-psychological concepts such as, segregation, community development, social mobility, etc. However, due to the nature of these studies and limitations because of involvement of human subjects, conclusions from these studies are not easily extensible in online social media. Social media, which is becoming the infinite space for interactions, has exceeded all the expectations in terms of growth, for reasons beyond human mind. New ties are formed in social media in the same way that they emerge in real-world. However, given the differences between real world and online social media, do the same factors that govern the construction of new ties in real world also govern the construction of new ties in social media? In other words, does homophily exist in social media? In this article, we study this extremely significant question. We propose a systematic approach by studying three online social media sites, BlogCatalog, Last.fm, and LiveJournal and report our findings along with some interesting observations. The results indicate that the influence of interest-based homophily is not a very strong leading factor for constructing new ties specifically in the three social media sites with implications to strategic advertising, recommendations, and promoting applications at large. It has often been taken as a working assumption that directed links in information networks are frequently formed by “short-cutting” a two-step path between the source and the destination — a kind of implicit “link copying” analogous to the process of triadic closure in social networks. Despite the role of this assumption in theoretical models such as preferential attachment, it has received very little direct empirical investigation. Here we develop a formalization and methodology for studying this type of directed closure process, and we provide evidence for its important role in the formation of links on Twitter. We then analyze a sequence of models designed to capture the structural phenomena related to directed closure that we observe in the Twitter data. Every day millions of users are connected through online social networks, generating a rich trove of data that allows us to study the mechanisms behind human interactions. Triadic closure has been treated as the major mechanism for creating social links: if Alice follows Bob and Bob follows Charlie, Alice will follow Charlie. Here we present an analysis of longitudinal micro-blogging data, revealing a more nuanced view of the strategies employed by users when expanding their social circles. While the network structure affects the spread of information among users, the network is in turn shaped by this communication activity. This suggests a link creation mechanism whereby Alice is more likely to follow Charlie after seeing many messages by Charlie. We characterize users with a set of parameters associated with different link creation strategies, estimated by a Maximum-Likelihood approach. Triadic closure does have a strong effect on link formation, but shortcuts based on traffic are another key factor in interpreting network evolution. However, individual strategies for following other users are highly heterogeneous. Link creation behaviors can be summarized by classifying users in different categories with distinct structural and behavioral characteristics. Users who are popular, active, and influential tend to create traffic-based shortcuts, making the information diffusion process more efficient in the network. Today, numerous models and metrics are available to capture and characterize static properties of online social networks. When it comes to understanding their dynamics and evolution, however, research offers little interms of metrics or models. Current metrics are limited to logical time clocks, and unable to capture interactions with external factors that rely on physical time clocks. In this paper, our goal is to take initial steps towards building a set of metrics for characterizing social network dynamics based on physical time. We focus our attention on two metrics that capture the "eagerness" of users in building social structure. More specifically, we propose metrics of link delay and triadic closure delay, two metrics that capture the time delay between when a link or triadic closure is possible,and when they actually instantiate in the trace. Considered over time or across traces, the value of these metrics can provide insight on the speed at which users act in building and extending their social neighborhoods. We apply these metrics to two real traces of social network dynamics from the Renren and Facebook networks. We show that these metrics are generally consistent across networks, but their differences reveal interesting properties of each system. We argue that they can be attributed to factors such as network maturity, environmental and social contexts, and services offered by network provider, all factors independent of the network topology and captured by our proposed metrics. Finally, we find that triadic closure delays capture the ease of neighbor discovery in social networks, and can be strongly influenced by friend recommendation systems.