Many interesting natural phenomena are sparsely distributed and discrete. Locating the hotspots of such sparsely distributed phenomena is often difficult because their density gradient is likely to be very noisy. We present a novel approach to this search problem, where we model the co-occurrence relations between a robot's observations with a Bayesian nonparametric topic model. This approach makes it possible to produce a robust estimate of the spatial distribution of the target, even in the absence of direct target observations. We apply the proposed approach to the problem of finding the spatial locations of the hotspots of a specific phytoplankton taxon in the ocean. We use classified image data from Imaging FlowCytobot (IFCB), which automatically measures individual microscopic cells and colonies of cells. Given these individual taxon-specific observations, we learn a phytoplankton community model that characterizes the co-occurrence relations between taxa. We present experiments with simulated robot missions drawn from real observation data collected during a research cruise traversing the US Atlantic coast. Our results show that the proposed approach outperforms nearest neighbor and k-means based methods for predicting the spatial distribution of hotspots from in-situ observations.
@cite_1 also developed an approach to predict the abundance of a particular species known to cause harmful algal blooms in the study region. Their objective was to optimize capture of the target species in a small, fixed number of physical samples taken by a robot. Their model is based on a Gaussian Process, with a set of environment variables including fluorescence, temperature, and other chemical properties as inputs, and the results of manual molecular analysis of historical data as training targets. Whereas their method focuses on predicting the abundance of the target species from environmental variables, our method predicts the abundance of a taxon from the distribution of other taxa. These two perspectives are complementary and both are useful for the problem of automatically choosing the best set of sample locations for extended ex-situ analysis.
@cite_1
2163932785 2114866007 1938668859 2117418453
Received 28 May 2002; revised 18 September 2002; accepted 24 September 2002; published 14 February 2003. [1] When an inverse problem is solved to estimate an unknown function such as the hydraulic conductivity in an aquifer or the contamination history at a site, one constraint is that the unknown function is known to be everywhere nonnegative. In this work, we develop a statistically rigorous method for enforcing function nonnegativity in Bayesian inverse problems. The proposed method behaves similarly to a Gaussian process with a linear variogram (i.e., unrestricted Brownian motion) for parameter values significantly greater than zero. The method uses the method of images to define a prior probability density function based on reflected Brownian motion that implicitly enforces nonnegativity. This work focuses on problems where the unknown is a function of a single variable (e.g., time). A Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, specifically, a highly efficient Gibbs sampler, is implemented to generate conditional realizations of the unknown function. The new method is applied to the estimation of the trichloroethylene (TCE) and perchloroethylene (PCE) contamination history in an aquifer at Dover Air Force Base, Delaware, based on concentration profiles obtained from an underlying aquitard. INDEX TERMS: 1831 Hydrology: Groundwater quality; 1869 Hydrology: Stochastic processes; 3260 Mathematical Geophysics: Inverse theory; KEYWORDS: stochastic inverse modeling, contaminant source identification, inference under constraints, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), Gibbs sampling, Bayesian inference Harmful algal blooms (HABs) pose an enormous threat to the U.S. marine habitation and economy in the coastal waters. Federal and state coastal administrators have been devising a state-of-the-art monitoring and forecasting system for these HAB events. The efficacy of a monitoring and forecasting system relies on the performance of HAB detection. We propose a machine learning based spatio-temporal data mining approach for the detection of HAB events in the region of the Gulf of Mexico. In this study, a spatio-temporal cubical neighborhood around the training sample is introduced to retrieve relevant spectral information of both HAB and non-HAB classes. The feature relevance is studied through mutual information criterion to understand the important features in classifying HABs from non-HABs. Kernel based support vector machine is used as a classifier in the detection of HABs. This approach gives a significant performance improvement by reducing the false alarm rate. Further, with the achieved classification accuracy, the seasonal variations and sequential occurrence of algal blooms are predicted from spatio-temporal datasets. New variability visualization is introduced to illustrate the dynamic behavior of HABs across space and time. Robotic sampling is attractive in many field robotics applications that require persistent collection of physical samples for ex-situ analysis. Examples abound in the earth sciences in studies involving the collection of rock, soil, and water samples for laboratory analysis. In our test domain, marine ecosystem monitoring, detailed understanding of plankton ecology requires laboratory analysis of water samples, but predictions using physical and chemical properties measured in real-time by sensors aboard an autonomous underwater vehicle AUV can guide sample collection decisions. In this paper, we present a data-driven and opportunistic sampling strategy to minimize cumulative regret for batches of plankton samples acquired by an AUV over multiple surveys. Samples are labeled at the end of each survey, and used to update a probabilistic model that guides sampling during subsequent surveys. During a survey, the AUV makes irrevocable sample collection decisions online for a sequential stream of candidates, with no knowledge of the quality of future samples. In addition to extensive simulations using historical field data, we present results from a one-day field trial where beginning with a prior model learned from data collected and labeled in an earlier campaign, the AUV collected water samples with a high abundance of a pre-specified planktonic target. This is the first time such a field experiment has been carried out in its entirety in a data-driven fashion, in effect ?closing the loop? on a significant and relevant ecosystem monitoring problem while allowing domain experts marine ecologists to specify the mission at a relatively high level. For a training dataset with a nonexhaustive list of classes, i.e. some classes are not yet known and hence are not represented, the resulting learning problem is ill-defined. In this case a sample from a missing class is incorrectly classified to one of the existing classes. For some applications the cost of misclassifying a sample could be negligible. However, the significance of this problem can better be acknowledged when the potentially undesirable consequences of incorrectly classifying a food pathogen as a nonpathogen are considered. Our research is directed towards the real-time detection of food pathogens using optical-scattering technology. Bacterial colonies consisting of the progeny of a single parent cell scatter light at 635 nm to produce unique forward-scatter signatures. These spectral signatures contain descriptive characteristics of bacterial colonies, which can be used to identify bacteria cultures in real time. One bottleneck that remains to be addressed is the nonexhaustive nature of the training library. It is very difficult if not impractical to collect samples from all possible bacteria colonies and construct a digital library with an exhaustive set of scatter signatures. This study deals with the real-time detection of samples from a missing class and the associated problem of learning with a nonexhaustive training dataset. Our proposed method assumes a common prior for the set of all classes, known and missing. The parameters of the prior are estimated from the samples of the known classes. This prior is then used to generate a large number of samples to simulate the space of missing classes. Finally a Bayesian maximum likelihood classifier is implemented using samples from real as well as simulated classes. Experiments performed with samples collected for 28 bacteria subclasses favor the proposed approach over the state of the art.