With the growth of user-generated content, we observe the constant rise of the number of companies, such as search engines, content aggregators, etc., that operate with tremendous amounts of web content not being the services hosting it. Thus, aiming to locate the most important content and promote it to the users, they face the need of estimating the current and predicting the future content popularity. In this paper, we approach the problem of video popularity prediction not from the side of a video hosting service, as done in all previous studies, but from the side of an operating company, which provides a popular video search service that aggregates content from different video hosting websites. We investigate video popularity prediction based on features from three primary sources available for a typical operating company: first, the content hosting provider may deliver its data via its API, second, the operating company makes use of its own search and browsing logs, third, the company crawls information about embeds of a video and links to a video page from publicly available resources on the Web. We show that video popularity prediction based on the embed and link data coupled with the internal search and browsing data significantly improves video popularity prediction based only on the data provided by the video hosting and can even adequately replace the API data in the cases when it is partly or completely unavailable.
The usefulness of content popularity prediction for search engines was discussed in @cite_29 @cite_16 @cite_9 where the prediction quality was estimated with ranking metrics for popularity of news articles and published jokes. Hence, in our study, we also evaluate the performance of our predictors by means of NDCG (one of the most popular ranking metrics @cite_22 ).
@cite_9 @cite_29 @cite_16 @cite_22
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In this paper, we propose a methodology to predict the popularity of online contents. More precisely, rather than trying to infer the popularity of a content itself, we infer the likelihood that a content will be popular. Our approach is rooted in survival analysis where predicting the precise lifetime of an individual is very hard and almost impossible but predicting the likelihood of one's survival longer than a threshold or another individual is possible. We position ourselves in the standpoint of an external observer who has to infer the popularity of a content only using publicly observable metrics, such as the lifetime of a thread, the number of comments, and the number of views. Our goal is to infer these observable metrics, using a set of explanatory factors, such as the number of comments and the number of links in the first hours after the content publication, which are observable by the external observer. We use a Cox proportional hazard regression model that divides the distribution function of the observable popularity metric into two components: a) one that can be explained by the given set of explanatory factors (called risk factors) and b) a baseline distribution function that integrates all the factors not taken into account. To validate our proposed approach, we use data sets from two different online discussion forums: dpreview.com, one of the largest online discussion groups providing news and discussion forums about all kinds of digital cameras, and myspace.com, one of the representative online social networking services. On these two data sets we model two different popularity metrics, the lifetime of threads and the number of comments, and show that our approach can predict the lifetime of threads from Dpreview (Myspace) by observing a thread during the first 5 6 days (24 hours, respectively) and the number of comments of Dpreview threads by observing a thread during first 2 3 days. Content popularity prediction finds application in many areas, including media advertising, content caching, movie revenue estimation, traffic management and macro-economic trends forecasting, to name a few. However, predicting this popularity is difficult due to, among others, the effects of external phenomena, the influence of context such as locality and relevance to users,and the difficulty of forecasting information cascades. In this paper we identify patterns of temporal evolution that are generalisable to distinct types of data, and show that we can (1) accurately classify content based on the evolution of its popularity over time and (2) predict the value of the content's future popularity. We verify the generality of our method by testing it on YouTube, Digg and Vimeo data sets and find our results to outperform the K-Means baseline when classifying the behaviour of content and the linear regression baseline when predicting its popularity. Predicting Web content popularity is an important task for supporting the design and evaluation of a wide range of systems, from targeted advertising to effective search and recommendation services. We here present two simple models for predicting the future popularity of Web content based on historical information given by early popularity measures. Our approach is validated on datasets consisting of videos from the widely used YouTube video-sharing portal. Our experimental results show that, compared to a state-of-the-art baseline model, our proposed models lead to significant decreases in relative squared errors, reaching up to 20 reduction on average, and larger reductions (of up to 71 ) for videos that experience a high peak in popularity in their early days followed by a sharp decrease in popularity. This paper presents results comparing user preference for search engine rankings with measures of effectiveness computed from a test collection. It establishes that preferences and evaluation measures correlate: systems measured as better on a test collection are preferred by users. This correlation is established for both "conventional web retrieval" and for retrieval that emphasizes diverse results. The nDCG measure is found to correlate best with user preferences compared to a selection of other well known measures. Unlike previous studies in this area, this examination involved a large population of users, gathered through crowd sourcing, exposed to a wide range of retrieval systems, test collections and search tasks. Reasons for user preferences were also gathered and analyzed. The work revealed a number of new results, but also showed that there is much scope for future work refining effectiveness measures to better capture user preferences.