We consider the problem of off-policy evaluation in Markov decision processes. Off-policy evaluation is the task of evaluating the expected return of one policy with data generated by a different, behavior policy. Importance sampling is a technique for off-policy evaluation that re-weights off-policy returns to account for differences in the likelihood of the returns between the two policies. In this paper, we study importance sampling with an estimated behavior policy where the behavior policy estimate comes from the same set of data used to compute the importance sampling estimate. We find that this estimator often lowers the mean squared error of off-policy evaluation compared to importance sampling with the true behavior policy or using a behavior policy that is estimated from a separate data set. Our empirical results also extend to other popular variants of importance sampling and show that estimating a non-Markovian behavior policy can further lower mean squared error even when the true behavior policy is Markovian.
In this section we survey work related to behavior policy estimation for importance sampling. Methods related to @math have been studied for Monte Carlo integration @cite_22 @cite_8 and causal inference @cite_1 @cite_10 . The @math method (discussed below) can be seen as the direct extension of these methods to MDPs. In contrast to these works, we study policy evaluation in Markov decision processes which introduces sequential structure into the samples and unknown stochasticity in the state transitions. These methods have also, to the best of our knowledge, been studied in Markov decision processes or for sequential data.
@cite_10 @cite_1 @cite_22 @cite_8
2765892966 2911793117 2950462606 2964000194
Consider the problem of approximating the optimal policy of a Markov decision process (MDP) by sampling state transitions. In contrast to existing reinforcement learning methods that are based on successive approximations to the nonlinear Bellman equation, we propose a Primal-Dual @math Learning method in light of the linear duality between the value and policy. The @math learning method is model-free and makes primal-dual updates to the policy and value vectors as new data are revealed. For infinite-horizon undiscounted Markov decision process with finite state space @math and finite action space @math , the @math learning method finds an @math -optimal policy using the following number of sample transitions @math where @math is an upper bound of mixing times across all policies and @math is a parameter characterizing the range of stationary distributions across policies. The @math learning method also applies to the computational problem of MDP where the transition probabilities and rewards are explicitly given as the input. In the case where each state transition can be sampled in @math time, the @math learning method gives a sublinear-time algorithm for solving the averaged-reward MDP. Consider a Markov decision process (MDP) that admits a set of state-action features, which can linearly express the process's probabilistic transition model. We propose a parametric Q-learning algorithm that finds an approximate-optimal policy using a sample size proportional to the feature dimension @math and invariant with respect to the size of the state space. To further improve its sample efficiency, we exploit the monotonicity property and intrinsic noise structure of the Bellman operator, provided the existence of anchor state-actions that imply implicit non-negativity in the feature space. We augment the algorithm using techniques of variance reduction, monotonicity preservation, and confidence bounds. It is proved to find a policy which is @math -optimal from any initial state with high probability using @math sample transitions for arbitrarily large-scale MDP with a discount factor @math . A matching information-theoretical lower bound is proved, confirming the sample optimality of the proposed method with respect to all parameters (up to polylog factors). We propose a new approach to the problem of searching a space of policies for a Markov decision process (MDP) or a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP), given a model. Our approach is based on the following observation: Any (PO)MDP can be transformed into an "equivalent" POMDP in which all state transitions (given the current state and action) are deterministic. This reduces the general problem of policy search to one in which we need only consider POMDPs with deterministic transitions. We give a natural way of estimating the value of all policies in these transformed POMDPs. Policy search is then simply performed by searching for a policy with high estimated value. We also establish conditions under which our value estimates will be good, recovering theoretical results similar to those of Kearns, Mansour and Ng (1999), but with "sample complexity" bounds that have only a polynomial rather than exponential dependence on the horizon time. Our method applies to arbitrary POMDPs, including ones with infinite state and action spaces. We also present empirical results for our approach on a small discrete problem, and on a complex continuous state continuous action problem involving learning to ride a bicycle. We consider the problem of learning an unknown Markov Decision Process (MDP) that is weakly communicating in the infinite horizon setting. We propose a Thompson Sampling-based reinforcement learning algorithm with dynamic episodes (TSDE). At the beginning of each episode, the algorithm generates a sample from the posterior distribution over the unknown model parameters. It then follows the optimal stationary policy for the sampled model for the rest of the episode. The duration of each episode is dynamically determined by two stopping criteria. The first stopping criterion controls the growth rate of episode length. The second stopping criterion happens when the number of visits to any state-action pair is doubled. We establish @math bounds on expected regret under a Bayesian setting, where @math and @math are the sizes of the state and action spaces, @math is time, and @math is the bound of the span. This regret bound matches the best available bound for weakly communicating MDPs. Numerical results show it to perform better than existing algorithms for infinite horizon MDPs.