Photovoltaic (PV) power generation has emerged as one of the lead renewable energy sources. Yet, its production is characterized by high uncertainty, being dependent on weather conditions like solar irradiance and temperature. Predicting PV production, even in the 24-hour forecast, remains a challenge and leads energy providers to left idling - often carbon emitting - plants. In this paper, we introduce a Long-Term Recurrent Convolutional Network using Numerical Weather Predictions (NWP) to predict, in turn, PV production in the 24-hour and 48-hour forecast horizons. This network architecture fully leverages both temporal and spatial weather data, sampled over the whole geographical area of interest. We train our model on an NWP dataset from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to predict spatially aggregated PV production in Germany. We compare its performance to the persistence model and state-of-the-art methods.
Meanwhile, flexible non-linear predictions models taking into account the spatio-temporal structure of the data, like Long-Term Recurrent Convolutional Network (LRCN) @cite_24 , 2D LSTM or Convolutional LSTM architectures (ConvLSTM) @cite_30 , have been successfully applied to a variety of problems. LRCN models have been used in activity recognition, image captioning and visual question answering @cite_24 . A 2D LSTM model has been applied to traffic forecasting @cite_3 while a ConvLSTM has shown promising results on a precipitation forecast that predicts rainfall intensity in a local region on a very short time horizon @cite_30 (also known as nowcasting), a weather-related prediction problem that shares similarities with PV forecast.
@cite_24 @cite_30 @cite_3
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With the goal of making high-resolution forecasts of regional rainfall, precipitation nowcasting has become an important and fundamental technology underlying various public services ranging from rainstorm warnings to flight safety. Recently, the Convolutional LSTM (ConvLSTM) model has been shown to outperform traditional optical flow based methods for precipitation nowcasting, suggesting that deep learning models have a huge potential for solving the problem. However, the convolutional recurrence structure in ConvLSTM-based models is location-invariant while natural motion and transformation (e.g., rotation) are location-variant in general. Furthermore, since deep-learning-based precipitation nowcasting is a newly emerging area, clear evaluation protocols have not yet been established. To address these problems, we propose both a new model and a benchmark for precipitation nowcasting. Specifically, we go beyond ConvLSTM and propose the Trajectory GRU (TrajGRU) model that can actively learn the location-variant structure for recurrent connections. Besides, we provide a benchmark that includes a real-world large-scale dataset from the Hong Kong Observatory, a new training loss, and a comprehensive evaluation protocol to facilitate future research and gauge the state of the art. The goal of precipitation nowcasting is to predict the future rainfall intensity in a local region over a relatively short period of time. Very few previous studies have examined this crucial and challenging weather forecasting problem from the machine learning perspective. In this paper, we formulate precipitation nowcasting as a spatiotemporal sequence forecasting problem in which both the input and the prediction target are spatiotemporal sequences. By extending the fully connected LSTM (FC-LSTM) to have convolutional structures in both the input-to-state and state-to-state transitions, we propose the convolutional LSTM (ConvLSTM) and use it to build an end-to-end trainable model for the precipitation nowcasting problem. Experiments show that our ConvLSTM network captures spatiotemporal correlations better and consistently outperforms FC-LSTM and the state-of-the-art operational ROVER algorithm for precipitation nowcasting. Multivariate time series forecasting is an important machine learning problem across many domains, including predictions of solar plant energy output, electricity consumption, and traffic jam situation. Temporal data arise in these real-world applications often involves a mixture of long-term and short-term patterns, for which traditional approaches such as Autoregressive models and Gaussian Process may fail. In this paper, we proposed a novel deep learning framework, namely Long- and Short-term Time-series network (LSTNet), to address this open challenge. LSTNet uses the Convolution Neural Network (CNN) and the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) to extract short-term local dependency patterns among variables and to discover long-term patterns for time series trends. Furthermore, we leverage traditional autoregressive model to tackle the scale insensitive problem of the neural network model. In our evaluation on real-world data with complex mixtures of repetitive patterns, LSTNet achieved significant performance improvements over that of several state-of-the-art baseline methods. All the data and experiment codes are available online. In this paper, we develop deep spatio-temporal neural networks to sequentially count vehicles from low quality videos captured by city cameras (citycams). Citycam videos have low resolution, low frame rate, high occlusion and large perspective, making most existing methods lose their efficacy. To overcome limitations of existing methods and incorporate the temporal information of traffic video, we design a novel FCN-rLSTM network to jointly estimate vehicle density and vehicle count by connecting fully convolutional neural networks (FCN) with long short term memory networks (LSTM) in a residual learning fashion. Such design leverages the strengths of FCN for pixel-level prediction and the strengths of LSTM for learning complex temporal dynamics. The residual learning connection reformulates the vehicle count regression as learning residual functions with reference to the sum of densities in each frame, which significantly accelerates the training of networks. To preserve feature map resolution, we propose a Hyper-Atrous combination to integrate atrous convolution in FCN and combine feature maps of different convolution layers. FCN-rLSTM enables refined feature representation and a novel end-to-end trainable mapping from pixels to vehicle count. We extensively evaluated the proposed method on different counting tasks with three datasets, with experimental results demonstrating their effectiveness and robustness. In particular, FCN-rLSTM reduces the mean absolute error (MAE) from 5.31 to 4.21 on TRANCOS; and reduces the MAE from 2.74 to 1.53 on WebCamT. Training process is accelerated by 5 times on average.