Many real-life dynamical systems change abruptly followed by almost stationary periods. In this paper, we consider streams of data with such abrupt behavior and investigate the problem of tracking their statistical properties in an online manner. We devise a tracking procedure where an estimator that is suitable for a stationary environment is combined together with an event detection method such that the estimator rapidly can jump to a more suitable value if an event is detected. Combining an estimation procedure with detection procedure is commonly known idea in the literature. However, our contribution lies in building the detection procedure based on the difference between the stationary estimator and a Stochastic Learning Weak Estimator (SLWE). The SLWE estimator is known to be the state-of-the art approach to tracking properties of non-stationary environments and thus should be a better choice to detect changes in abruptly changing environments than the far more common sliding window based approaches. To the best of our knowledge, the event detection procedure suggested by (2012) is the only procedure in the literature taking advantage of the powerful tracking properties of the SLWE estimator. The procedure in is however quite complex and not well founded theoretically compared to the procedures in this paper. In this paper, we focus on estimation procedure for the binomial and multinomial distributions, but our approach can be easily generalized to cover other distributions as well. Extensive simulation results based on both synthetic and real-life data related to news classification demonstrate that our estimation procedure is easy to tune and performs well.
Another interesting family of approaches assume that the true value of the parameter being estimated is revealed after some delay, which enables quantifying the error of the estimator. In such settings, some research @cite_23 have used ensemble methods where the output of different estimators is combined using weighted majority voting. The weights of each estimator is adjusted based on its error. In this sense, estimation methods that produce high error see their weight decrease.
@cite_23
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Consider the problem of joint parameter estimation and prediction in a Markov random field: that is, the model parameters are estimated on the basis of an initial set of data, and then the fitted model is used to perform prediction (e.g., smoothing, denoising, interpolation) on a new noisy observation. Working under the restriction of limited computation, we analyze a joint method in which the same convex variational relaxation is used to construct an M-estimator for fitting parameters, and to perform approximate marginalization for the prediction step. The key result of this paper is that in the computation-limited setting, using an inconsistent parameter estimator (i.e., an estimator that returns the "wrong" model even in the infinite data limit) is provably beneficial, since the resulting errors can partially compensate for errors made by using an approximate prediction technique. En route to this result, we analyze the asymptotic properties of M-estimators based on convex variational relaxations, and establish a Lipschitz stability property that holds for a broad class of convex variational methods. This stability result provides additional incentive, apart from the obvious benefit of unique global optima, for using message-passing methods based on convex variational relaxations. We show that joint estimation prediction based on the reweighted sum-product algorithm substantially outperforms a commonly used heuristic based on ordinary sum-product. In many problems such as linear and nonlinear regressions, parameter and state estimation of dynamic systems, state-space and time series prediction, interpolation, smoothing and functions approximation, one has to evaluate some unknown variable using available data. The data are always associated with some uncertainty and it is necessary to evaluate how this uncertainty affects the estimated variables. Typically, the problem is approached assuming a probabilistic description of uncertainty and applying statistical estimation theory. An interesting alternative approach, referred to as set membership or unknown but bounded (UBB) error description, has been investigated since the late 1960s. In this approach, uncertainty is described by an additive noise which is known only to have given integral (typically l2 of l1) or componentwise (l∞) bounds. In this paper we review the main results of this theory, with special attention to the most recent advances obtained in the case of componentwise bounds. Abstract : This paper presents a general theoretical framework for ensemble methods of constructing significantly improved regression estimates. Given a population of regression estimators, the authors construct a hybrid estimator that is as good or better in the mean square error sense than any estimator in the population. They argue that the ensemble method presented has several properties: (1) it efficiently uses all the networks of a population -- none of the networks need to be discarded; (2) it efficiently uses all of the available data for training without over-fitting; (3) it inherently performs regularization by smoothing in functional space, which helps to avoid over-fitting; (4) it utilizes local minima to construct improved estimates whereas other neural network algorithms are hindered by local minima; (5) it is ideally suited for parallel computation; (6) it leads to a very useful and natural measure of the number of distinct estimators in a population; and (7) the optimal parameters of the ensemble estimator are given in closed form. Experimental results show that the ensemble method dramatically improves neural network performance on difficult real-world optical character recognition tasks. This work considers a computationally and statistically efficient parameter estimation method for a wide class of latent variable models---including Gaussian mixture models, hidden Markov models, and latent Dirichlet allocation---which exploits a certain tensor structure in their low-order observable moments (typically, of second- and third-order). Specifically, parameter estimation is reduced to the problem of extracting a certain (orthogonal) decomposition of a symmetric tensor derived from the moments; this decomposition can be viewed as a natural generalization of the singular value decomposition for matrices. Although tensor decompositions are generally intractable to compute, the decomposition of these specially structured tensors can be efficiently obtained by a variety of approaches, including power iterations and maximization approaches (similar to the case of matrices). A detailed analysis of a robust tensor power method is provided, establishing an analogue of Wedin's perturbation theorem for the singular vectors of matrices. This implies a robust and computationally tractable estimation approach for several popular latent variable models.