Many online social networks thrive on automatic sharing of friends' activities to a user through activity feeds, which may influence the user's next actions. However, identifying such social influence is tricky because these activities are simultaneously impacted by influence and homophily. We propose a statistical procedure that uses commonly available network and observational data about people's actions to estimate the extent of copy-influence---mimicking others' actions that appear in a feed. We assume that non-friends don't influence users; thus, comparing how a user's activity correlates with friends versus non-friends who have similar preferences can help tease out the effect of copy-influence. Experiments on datasets from multiple social networks show that estimates that don't account for homophily overestimate copy-influence by varying, often large amounts. Further, copy-influence estimates fall below 1 of total actions in all networks: most people, and almost all actions, are not affected by the feed. Our results question common perceptions around the extent of copy-influence in online social networks and suggest improvements to diffusion and recommendation models.
Another approach by randomizes the order of people's actions to remove causal links due to temporality between A's and B's actions @cite_44 . In the absence of influence, the expected probability of a user acting upon an item given that some number of their friends have already done so---called @math -exposure @cite_41 @cite_6 ---should be the same in the observed data and the time-shuffled data. If it is statistically different, influence is in play. The method was used on a Flickr dataset and showed no significant difference between the two worlds. Still, the authors do not rule out influence, giving examples from their dataset that demonstrate influence effects, and note that their method is unable to make individual-level influence estimates.
@cite_44 @cite_41 @cite_6
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The discovery of causal relationships from purely observational data is a fundamental problem in science. The most elementary form of such a causal discovery problem is to decide whether X causes Y or, alternatively, Y causes X, given joint observations of two variables X,Y. An example is to decide whether altitude causes temperature, or vice versa, given only joint measurements of both variables. Even under the simplifying assumptions of no confounding, no feedback loops, and no selection bias, such bivariate causal discovery problems are challenging. Nevertheless, several approaches for addressing those problems have been proposed in recent years. We review two families of such methods: methods based on Additive Noise Models (ANMs) and Information Geometric Causal Inference (IGCI). We present the benchmark CAUSEEFFECTPAIRS that consists of data for 100 different causee ffect pairs selected from 37 data sets from various domains (e.g., meteorology, biology, medicine, engineering, economy, etc.) and motivate our decisions regarding the "ground truth" causal directions of all pairs. We evaluate the performance of several bivariate causal discovery methods on these real-world benchmark data and in addition on artificially simulated data. Our empirical results on real-world data indicate that certain methods are indeed able to distinguish cause from effect using only purely observational data, although more benchmark data would be needed to obtain statistically significant conclusions. One of the best performing methods overall is the method based on Additive Noise Models that has originally been proposed by (2009), which obtains an accuracy of 63 ± 10 and an AUC of 0.74 ± 0.05 on the real-world benchmark. As the main theoretical contribution of this work we prove the consistency of that method. In many online social systems, social ties between users play an important role in dictating their behavior. One of the ways this can happen is through social influence, the phenomenon that the actions of a user can induce his her friends to behave in a similar way. In systems where social influence exists, ideas, modes of behavior, or new technologies can diffuse through the network like an epidemic. Therefore, identifying and understanding social influence is of tremendous interest from both analysis and design points of view. This is a difficult task in general, since there are factors such as homophily or unobserved confounding variables that can induce statistical correlation between the actions of friends in a social network. Distinguishing influence from these is essentially the problem of distinguishing correlation from causality, a notoriously hard statistical problem. In this paper we study this problem systematically. We define fairly general models that replicate the aforementioned sources of social correlation. We then propose two simple tests that can identify influence as a source of social correlation when the time series of user actions is available. We give a theoretical justification of one of the tests by proving that with high probability it succeeds in ruling out influence in a rather general model of social correlation. We also simulate our tests on a number of examples designed by randomly generating actions of nodes on a real social network (from Flickr) according to one of several models. Simulation results confirm that our test performs well on these data. Finally, we apply them to real tagging data on Flickr, exhibiting that while there is significant social correlation in tagging behavior on this system, this correlation cannot be attributed to social influence. An important problem in econometrics and marketing is to infer the causal impact that a designed market intervention has exerted on an outcome metric over time. In order to allocate a given budget optimally, for example, an advertiser must determine the incremental contributions that dierent advertising campaigns have made to web searches, product installs, or sales. This paper proposes to infer causal impact on the basis of a diusion-regressi on state-space model that predicts the counterfactual market response that would have occurred had no intervention taken place. In con- trast to classical dierence-in-dier ences schemes, state-space models make it possible to (i) infer the temporal evolution of attributable impact, (ii) incorporate empirical priors on the parameters in a fully Bayesian treatment, and (iii) exibly accommodate multiple sources of variation, including the time-varying inuence of contemporane- ous covariates, i.e., synthetic controls. Using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for posterior inference, we illustrate the statistical properties of our approach on synthetic data. We then demonstrate its practical utility by evaluating the eect of an online advertising campaign on search-related site visits. We discuss the strengths and limitations of our approach in improving the accuracy of causal at- tribution, power analyses, and principled budget allocation. Recently, there has been increasing interest in making causal inference when interference is possible. In the presence of interference, treatment may have several types of effects. In this article, we consider inference about such effects when the population consists of groups of individuals where interference is possible within groups but not between groups. A two-stage randomization design is assumed where in the first stage groups are randomized to different treatment allocation strategies and in the second stage individuals are randomized to treatment or control conditional on the strategy assigned to their group in the first stage. For this design, the asymptotic distributions of estimators of the causal effects are derived when either the number of individuals per group or the number of groups grows large. Under certain homogeneity assumptions, the asymptotic distributions provide justification for Wald-type confidence intervals (CIs) and tests. Empirical results demonstrate that the Wald CIs have good coverage in finite samples and are narrower than CIs based on either the Chebyshev or Hoeffding inequalities provided the number of groups is not too small. The methods are illustrated by two examples which consider the effects of cholera vaccination and an intervention to encourage voting.