Financial time-series forecasting has long been a challenging problem because of the inherently noisy and stochastic nature of the market. In the High-Frequency Trading (HFT), forecasting for trading purposes is even a more challenging task since an automated inference system is required to be both accurate and fast. In this paper, we propose a neural network layer architecture that incorporates the idea of bilinear projection as well as an attention mechanism that enables the layer to detect and focus on crucial temporal information. The resulting network is highly interpretable, given its ability to highlight the importance and contribution of each temporal instance, thus allowing further analysis on the time instances of interest. Our experiments in a large-scale Limit Order Book (LOB) dataset show that a two-hidden-layer network utilizing our proposed layer outperforms by a large margin all existing state-of-the-art results coming from much deeper architectures while requiring far fewer computations.
Based on the aforementioned attention mechanism, @cite_45 proposed to replace Eq. ) with a modified attention calculation scheme that assumes the existence of pseudo-periods in the given time-series. Their experiments in energy consumption and weather forecast showed that the proposed model learned to attend particular time instances which indicate the pseudo-periods existing in the data. For the future stock price prediction task given current and past prices of multiple stock indices, the authors in @cite_40 developed a recurrent network with two-stage attention mechanism which first focuses on different input series then different time instances. We should note that the formulations above of attention mechanism were proposed for the recurrent structure.
@cite_40 @cite_45
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The Nonlinear autoregressive exogenous (NARX) model, which predicts the current value of a time series based upon its previous values as well as the current and past values of multiple driving (exogenous) series, has been studied for decades. Despite the fact that various NARX models have been developed, few of them can capture the long-term temporal dependencies appropriately and select the relevant driving series to make predictions. In this paper, we propose a dual-stage attention-based recurrent neural network (DA-RNN) to address these two issues. In the first stage, we introduce an input attention mechanism to adaptively extract relevant driving series (a.k.a., input features) at each time step by referring to the previous encoder hidden state. In the second stage, we use a temporal attention mechanism to select relevant encoder hidden states across all time steps. With this dual-stage attention scheme, our model can not only make predictions effectively, but can also be easily interpreted. Thorough empirical studies based upon the SML 2010 dataset and the NASDAQ 100 Stock dataset demonstrate that the DA-RNN can outperform state-of-the-art methods for time series prediction. We propose here an extended attention model for sequence-to-sequence recurrent neural networks (RNNs) designed to capture (pseudo-)periods in time series. This extended attention model can be deployed on top of any RNN and is shown to yield state-of-the-art performance for time series forecasting on several univariate and multivariate time series. Automatic sleep staging has been often treated as a simple classification problem that aims at determining the label of individual target polysomnography epochs one at a time. In this paper, we tackle the task as a sequence-to-sequence classification problem that receives a sequence of multiple epochs as input and classifies all of their labels at once. For this purpose, we propose a hierarchical recurrent neural network named SeqSleepNet (source code is available at http: github.com pquochuy SeqSleepNet ). At the epoch processing level, the network consists of a filterbank layer tailored to learn frequency-domain filters for preprocessing and an attention-based recurrent layer designed for short-term sequential modeling. At the sequence processing level, a recurrent layer placed on top of the learned epoch-wise features for long-term modeling of sequential epochs. The classification is then carried out on the output vectors at every time step of the top recurrent layer to produce the sequence of output labels. Despite being hierarchical, we present a strategy to train the network in an end-to-end fashion. We show that the proposed network outperforms the state-of-the-art approaches, achieving an overall accuracy, macro F1-score, and Cohen’s kappa of 87.1 , 83.3 , and 0.815 on a publicly available dataset with 200 subjects. textabstractForecasting financial time series using past observations has been a significant topic of interest. While temporal relationships in the data exist, they are difficult to analyze and predict accurately due to the non-linear trends and noise present in the series. We propose to learn these dependencies by a convolutional neural network. In particular the focus is on multivariate time series forecasting. Effectively, we use multiple financial time series as input in the neural network, thus conditioning the forecast of a time series x(t) on both its own history as well as that of a second (or third) time series y(t). Training a model on multiple stock series allows the network to exploit the correlation structure between these series so that the network can learn the market dynamics in shorter sequences of data. We show that long-term temporal dependencies in and between financial time series can be learned by means of a deep convolutional neural network based on the WaveNet model [2]. The network makes use of dilated convolutions applied to multiple time series so that the receptive field of the network is wide enough to learn both short and long-term dependencies. The architecture includes batch normalization and uses a 1 × k convolution with parametrized skip connections from the input time series as well as the time series we condition on, in this way learning long-term interdependencies in an efficient manner [1]. This improves the forecast, while at the same time limiting the requirement for a long historical price series and reducing the noise. Knowing the strong performance of CNNs on classification problems we show that they can be applied successfully to forecasting financial time series, without the need of large samples of data. We compare the performance of the WaveNet model to a state-of-the-art fully convolutional network (FCN), and an autoregressive model popular in econometrics and show that our model is much better able to learn important dependencies in between financial time series resulting in a more robust and accurate forecast.