We introduce a new methodology for analyzing serial data by quantile regression assuming that the underlying quantile function consists of constant segments. The procedure does not rely on any distributional assumption besides serial independence. It is based on a multiscale statistic, which allows to control the (finite sample) probability for selecting the correct number of segments S at a given error level, which serves as a tuning parameter. For a proper choice of this parameter, this tends exponentially fast to the true S, as sample size increases. We further show that the location and size of segments are estimated at minimax optimal rate (compared to a Gaussian setting) up to a log-factor. Thereby, our approach leads to (asymptotically) uniform confidence bands for the entire quantile regression function in a fully nonparametric setup. The procedure is efficiently implemented using dynamic programming techniques with double heap structures, and software is provided. Simulations and data examples from genetic sequencing and ion channel recordings confirm the robustness of the proposed procedure, which at the same hand reliably detects changes in quantiles from arbitrary distributions with precise statistical guarantees.
The previously mentioned methods that target quantile regression do not come with specific confidence statements as MQS does. Conceptually, this is closely related to confidence bands and intervals in the context of change point regression introduced in @cite_9 for general exponential families. The present methodology extends this to the situation where no parametric model has to be assumed.
@cite_9
2303223340 2108306139 2116113389 2086688853
We propose a new method for pointwise estimation of monotone, uni- modal and U-shaped failure rates, under a right-censoring mechanism, using non- parametric likelihood ratios. The asymptotic distribution of the likelihood ratio is pivotal, though non-standard, and can therefore be used to construct asymptotic confidence intervals for the failure rate at a point of interest, via inversion. Major advantages of the new method lie in the facts that it completely avoids estima- tion of nuisance parameters, or the choice of a bandwidth tuning parameter, and is extremely easy to implement. The new method is shown to perform competi- tively in simulations, and is illustrated on a data set involving time to diagnosis of schizophrenia in the Jerusalem Perinatal Cohort Schizophrenia Study. Abstract A vast literature in statistics, biometrics, and econometrics is concerned with the analysis of binary and polychotomous response data. The classical approach fits a categorical response regression model using maximum likelihood, and inferences about the model are based on the associated asymptotic theory. The accuracy of classical confidence statements is questionable for small sample sizes. In this article, exact Bayesian methods for modeling categorical response data are developed using the idea of data augmentation. The general approach can be summarized as follows. The probit regression model for binary outcomes is seen to have an underlying normal regression structure on latent continuous data. Values of the latent data can be simulated from suitable truncated normal distributions. If the latent data are known, then the posterior distribution of the parameters can be computed using standard results for normal linear models. Draws from this posterior are used to sample new latent data, and t... Recent approaches to Reinforcement Learning (RL) with function approximation include Neural Fitted Q Iteration and the use of Gaussian Processes. They belong to the class of fitted value iteration algorithms, which use a set of support points to fit the value-function in a batch iterative process. These techniques make efficient use of a reduced number of samples by reusing them as needed, and are appropriate for applications where the cost of experiencing a new sample is higher than storing and reusing it, but this is at the expense of increasing the computational effort, since these algorithms are not incremental. On the other hand, non-parametric models for function approximation, like Gaussian Processes, are preferred against parametric ones, due to their greater flexibility. A further advantage of using Gaussian Processes for function approximation is that they allow to quantify the uncertainty of the estimation at each point. In this paper, we propose a new approach for RL in continuous domains based on Probability Density Estimations. Our method combines the best features of the previous methods: it is non-parametric and provides an estimation of the variance of the approximated function at any point of the domain. In addition, our method is simple, incremental, and computationally efficient. All these features make this approach more appealing than Gaussian Processes and fitted value iteration algorithms in general. The additive isotonic least-squares regression model has been fit using a sequential pooled adjacent violators algorithm, estimating each isotonic component in turn, and looping until convergence. However, the individual components are not, in general, estimable. The sum of the components, i.e. the expected value of the response, has a unique estimate, which can be found using a single cone projection. Estimators for the individual components are then easily obtained, which are unique if the conditions for estimability hold. Parametrically modelled covariates are easily included in the cone projection specification. The cone structure also provides information about the degrees of freedom of the fit, which can be used in inference methods, variable selection, and estimation of the model variance. Simulations show that these methods can compare favourably to standard parametric methods, even when the parametric assumptions are correct. The estimation and inference methods can be extended to other constraints such as convex regression or isotonic regression on partial orderings.