This paper presents a novel 3DOF pedestrian trajectory prediction approach for autonomous mobile service robots. While most previously reported methods are based on learning of 2D positions in monocular camera images, our approach uses range-finder sensors to learn and predict 3DOF pose trajectories (i.e. 2D position plus 1D rotation within the world coordinate system). Our approach, T-Pose-LSTM (Temporal 3DOF-Pose Long-Short-Term Memory), is trained using long-term data from real-world robot deployments and aims to learn context-dependent (environment- and time-specific) human activities. Our approach incorporates long-term temporal information (i.e. date and time) with short-term pose observations as input. A sequence-to-sequence LSTM encoder-decoder is trained, which encodes observations into LSTM and then decodes as predictions. For deployment, it can perform on-the-fly prediction in real-time. Instead of using manually annotated data, we rely on a robust human detection, tracking and SLAM system, providing us with examples in a global coordinate system. We validate the approach using more than 15K pedestrian trajectories recorded in a care home environment over a period of three months. The experiment shows that the proposed T-Pose-LSTM model advances the state-of-the-art 2D-based method for human trajectory prediction in long-term mobile robot deployments.
Predicting pedestrian trajectories has a long history in computer vision @cite_15 @cite_14 @cite_19 @cite_0 @cite_2 @cite_17 @cite_21 . Pioneering work focuses on representing the social context with hand-crafted features @cite_15 @cite_14 @cite_19 @cite_0 , while more recent approaches have tried to learn from context information relating to the position of other pedestrians or landmarks in the environment @cite_2 @cite_17 . As the trajectory prediction can be formulated as a regression problem, Gaussian Process (GP)-based methods @cite_19 @cite_7 are very popular in pedestrian prediction. The limitation of GP-like parametric models is that the computation increases exponentially with the number of training examples. Although sparse GP methods @cite_7 can be much more efficient for large-scale datasets, this problem is unlikely be remedied.
@cite_14 @cite_7 @cite_21 @cite_0 @cite_19 @cite_2 @cite_15 @cite_17
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Pedestrians follow different trajectories to avoid obstacles and accommodate fellow pedestrians. Any autonomous vehicle navigating such a scene should be able to foresee the future positions of pedestrians and accordingly adjust its path to avoid collisions. This problem of trajectory prediction can be viewed as a sequence generation task, where we are interested in predicting the future trajectory of people based on their past positions. Following the recent success of Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) models for sequence prediction tasks, we propose an LSTM model which can learn general human movement and predict their future trajectories. This is in contrast to traditional approaches which use hand-crafted functions such as Social forces. We demonstrate the performance of our method on several public datasets. Our model outperforms state-of-the-art methods on some of these datasets. We also analyze the trajectories predicted by our model to demonstrate the motion behaviour learned by our model. In this paper, we study the safe navigation of a mobile robot through crowds of dynamic agents with uncertain trajectories. Existing algorithms suffer from the “freezing robot” problem: once the environment surpasses a certain level of complexity, the planner decides that all forward paths are unsafe, and the robot freezes in place (or performs unnecessary maneuvers) to avoid collisions. Since a feasible path typically exists, this behavior is suboptimal. Existing approaches have focused on reducing the predictive uncertainty for individual agents by employing more informed models or heuristically limiting the predictive covariance to prevent this overcautious behavior. In this work, we demonstrate that both the individual prediction and the predictive uncertainty have little to do with the frozen robot problem. Our key insight is that dynamic agents solve the frozen robot problem by engaging in “joint collision avoidance”: They cooperatively make room to create feasible trajectories. We develop IGP, a nonparametric statistical model based on dependent output Gaussian processes that can estimate crowd interaction from data. Our model naturally captures the non-Markov nature of agent trajectories, as well as their goal-driven navigation. We then show how planning in this model can be efficiently implemented using particle based inference. Lastly, we evaluate our model on a dataset of pedestrians entering and leaving a building, first comparing the model with actual pedestrians, and find that the algorithm either outperforms human pedestrians or performs very similarly to the pedestrians. We also present an experiment where a covariance reduction method results in highly overcautious behavior, while our model performs desirably. As humans we possess an intuitive ability for navigation which we master through years of practice; however existing approaches to model this trait for diverse tasks including monitoring pedestrian flow and detecting abnormal events have been limited by using a variety of hand-crafted features. Recent research in the area of deep-learning has demonstrated the power of learning features directly from the data; and related research in recurrent neural networks has shown exemplary results in sequence-to-sequence problems such as neural machine translation and neural image caption generation. Motivated by these approaches, we propose a novel method to predict the future motion of a pedestrian given a short history of their, and their neighbours, past behaviour. The novelty of the proposed method is the combined attention model which utilises both "soft attention" as well as "hard-wired" attention in order to map the trajectory information from the local neighbourhood to the future positions of the pedestrian of interest. We illustrate how a simple approximation of attention weights (i.e hard-wired) can be merged together with soft attention weights in order to make our model applicable for challenging real world scenarios with hundreds of neighbours. The navigational capability of the proposed method is tested on two challenging publicly available surveillance databases where our model outperforms the current-state-of-the-art methods. Additionally, we illustrate how the proposed architecture can be directly applied for the task of abnormal event detection without handcrafting the features. Future vehicle systems for active pedestrian safety will not only require a high recognition performance but also an accurate analysis of the developing traffic situation. In this paper, we present a study on pedestrian path prediction and action classification at short subsecond time intervals. We consider four representative approaches: two novel approaches (based on Gaussian process dynamical models and probabilistic hierarchical trajectory matching) that use augmented features derived from dense optical flow and two approaches as baseline that use positional information only (a Kalman filter and its extension to interacting multiple models). In experiments using stereo vision data obtained from a vehicle, we investigate the accuracy of path prediction and action classification at various time horizons, the effect of various errors (image localization, vehicle egomotion estimation), and the benefit of the proposed approaches. The scenario of interest is that of a crossing pedestrian, who might stop or continue walking at the road curbside. Results indicate similar performance of the four approaches on walking motion, with near-linear dynamics. During stopping, however, the two newly proposed approaches, with nonlinear and or higher order models and augmented motion features, achieve a more accurate position prediction of 10-50 cm at a time horizon of 0-0.77 s around the stopping event.