Deep Learning is a consolidated, state-of-the-art Machine Learning tool to fit a function (y=f(x) ) when provided with large data sets of examples ( (x_i, y_i) ). However, in regression tasks, the straightforward application of Deep Learning models provides a point estimate of the target. In addition, the model does not take into account the uncertainty of a prediction. This represents a great limitation for tasks where communicating an erroneous prediction carries a risk. In this paper we tackle a real-world problem of forecasting impending financial expenses and incomings of customers, while displaying predictable monetary amounts on a mobile app. In this context, we investigate if we would obtain an advantage by applying Deep Learning models with a Heteroscedastic model of the variance of a network’s output. Experimentally, we achieve a higher accuracy than non-trivial baselines. More importantly, we introduce a mechanism to discard low-confidence predictions, which means that they will not be visible to users. This should help enhance the user experience of our product.
In the case of using Deep Learning for classification, it is common to use a Softmax activation function in the last layer @cite_6 . This yields a non-calibrated probability score which can be used heuristically as the confidence score or calibrated to a true probability @cite_10 . However, in the case of regression, the output variables are not class labels and it is not possible to obtain such scores. On the other hand, @cite_13 introduces the idea of combining different kinds of Aleatoric and Epistemic uncertainties. Nevertheless, as we saw in Table , the use of Epistemic uncertainty for our problem worsens the accuracy and the general performance of the model.
@cite_13 @cite_10 @cite_6
2125327503 2773012335 2949561789 2867167548
It is difficult to apply machine learning to new domains because often we lack labeled problem instances. In this paper, we provide a solution to this problem that leverages domain knowledge in the form of affinities between input features and classes. For example, in a baseball vs. hockey text classification problem, even without any labeled data, we know that the presence of the word puck is a strong indicator of hockey. We refer to this type of domain knowledge as a labeled feature. In this paper, we propose a method for training discriminative probabilistic models with labeled features and unlabeled instances. Unlike previous approaches that use labeled features to create labeled pseudo-instances, we use labeled features directly to constrain the model's predictions on unlabeled instances. We express these soft constraints using generalized expectation (GE) criteria --- terms in a parameter estimation objective function that express preferences on values of a model expectation. In this paper we train multinomial logistic regression models using GE criteria, but the method we develop is applicable to other discriminative probabilistic models. The complete objective function also includes a Gaussian prior on parameters, which encourages generalization by spreading parameter weight to unlabeled features. Experimental results on text classification data sets show that this method outperforms heuristic approaches to training classifiers with labeled features. Experiments with human annotators show that it is more beneficial to spend limited annotation time labeling features rather than labeling instances. For example, after only one minute of labeling features, we can achieve 80 accuracy on the ibm vs. mac text classification problem using GE-FL, whereas ten minutes labeling documents results in an accuracy of only 77 In this paper, we focus on improving the proposal classification stage in the object detection task and present implicit negative sub-categorization and sink diversion to lift the performance by strengthening loss function in this stage. First, based on the observation that the “background” class is generally very diverse and thus challenging to be handled as a single indiscriminative class in existing state-of-the-art methods, we propose to divide the background category into multiple implicit sub-categories to explicitly differentiate diverse patterns within it. Second, since the ground truth class inevitably has low-value probability scores for certain images, we propose to add a “sink” class and divert the probabilities of wrong classes to this class when necessary, such that the ground truth label will still have a higher probability than other wrong classes even though it has low probability output. Additionally, we propose to use dilated convolution, which is widely used in the semantic segmentation task, for efficient and valuable context information extraction. Extensive experiments on PASCAL VOC 2007 and 2012 data sets show that our proposed methods based on faster R-CNN implementation can achieve state-of-the-art mAPs, i.e., 84.1 , 82.6 , respectively, and obtain 2.5 improvement on ILSVRC DET compared with that of ResNet. We consider the task of learning a classifier for semantic segmentation using weak supervision in the form of image labels which specify the object classes present in the image. Our method uses deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and adopts an Expectation-Maximization (EM) based approach. We focus on the following three aspects of EM: (i) initialization; (ii) latent posterior estimation (E-step) and (iii) the parameter update (M-step). We show that saliency and attention maps, our bottom-up and top-down cues respectively, of simple images provide very good cues to learn an initialization for the EM-based algorithm. Intuitively, we show that before trying to learn to segment complex images, it is much easier and highly effective to first learn to segment a set of simple images and then move towards the complex ones. Next, in order to update the parameters, we propose minimizing the combination of the standard softmax loss and the KL divergence between the true latent posterior and the likelihood given by the CNN. We argue that this combination is more robust to wrong predictions made by the expectation step of the EM method. We support this argument with empirical and visual results. Extensive experiments and discussions show that: (i) our method is very simple and intuitive; (ii) requires only image-level labels; and (iii) consistently outperforms other weakly-supervised state-of-the-art methods with a very high margin on the PASCAL VOC 2012 dataset. Detecting test samples drawn sufficiently far away from the training distribution statistically or adversarially is the fundamental requirement to deploy a good classifier in many real-world machine learning applications. However, deep neural networks with the softmax classifier are known to produce highly overconfident posterior distributions even for such abnormal samples. In this paper, we propose a simple yet effective method for detecting any abnormal samples, which is applicable to any pre-trained softmax neural classifier. We obtain the class conditional Gaussian distributions with respect to (low- and upper-level) features of the deep models under Gaussian discriminant analysis, which result in a confidence score based on the Mahalanobis distance. While most prior methods have been evaluated for detecting either out-of-distribution or adversarial samples, but not both, the proposed method achieves the state-of-art performances for both cases in our experiments. Moreover, we found that our proposed method is more robust in extreme cases, e.g., when the training dataset has noisy labels or small number of samples. Finally, we show that the proposed method enjoys broader usage by applying it to class incremental learning: whenever out-of-distribution samples are detected, our classification rule can incorporate new classes well without further training deep models.