In the context of a motivating study of dynamic network flow data on a large-scale e-commerce web site, we develop Bayesian models for on-line sequential analysis for monitoring and adapting to changes reflected in node-node traffic. For large-scale networks, we customize core Bayesian time series analysis methods using dynamic generalized linear models (DGLMs) integrated into the multivariate network context using the concept of decouple recouple recently introduced in multivariate time series. This enables flexible dynamic modeling of flows on large-scale networks and exploitation of partial parallelization of analysis while critically maintaining coherence with an over-arching multivariate dynamic flow model. Development is anchored in a case-study on internet data, with flows of visitors to a commercial news web site defining a long time series of node-node counts on over 56,000 node pairs. Characterizing inherent stochasticity in traffic patterns, understanding node-node interactions, adapting to dynamic changes in flows and allowing for sensitive monitoring to flag anomalies are central questions. The methodology of dynamic network DGLMs will be of interest and utility in broad ranges of dynamic network flow studies.
Various Bayesian statistical models have also been developed for dynamic network studies with state-space models . State-space models represent data with coupled observation (noise, natural random variation) components and latent process (underlying state variables with stochastic but sustained patterns over time). Conditionally linear, Gaussian models are amenable to analytic computation using Kalman filtering-style analysis, and more extensive analysis using broader classes of Bayesian state-state space models [e.g.][] WestHarrison1997 . However, many most problems of network inference in dynamic contexts involve non-Gaussian data structures and non-linear effects, so one needs stronger computational methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo . For example, @cite_3 map the dynamic co-occurrence data to dynamic embeddings in low-dimension Euclidean space, while @cite_2 and @cite_4 extend well-known stochastic block models to study dynamic network tomography. More closely allied to some of our main interests here are past works on the so-called network tomography problem [e.g.][] Tebaldi1998 and state-space models for physical traffic flow forecasting [e.g.][] Tebaldi2002,Queen2009, AnacletoEtAl2013a, AnacletoEtAl2013b . Our work presents a broader approach to such studies by exploiting rich classes of Bayesian state-space models to characterize and analyse complex, time-varying flows on networks.
@cite_4 @cite_3 @cite_2
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Rich and complex time-series data, such as those generated from engineering systems, financial markets, videos, or neural recordings are now a common feature of modern data analysis. Explaining the phenomena underlying these diverse data sets requires flexible and accurate models. In this paper, we promote Gaussian process dynamical systems as a rich model class that is appropriate for such an analysis. We present a new approximate message-passing algorithm for Bayesian state estimation and inference in Gaussian process dynamical systems, a non-parametric probabilistic generalization of commonly used state-space models. We derive our message-passing algorithm using Expectation Propagation and provide a unifying perspective on message passing in general state-space models. We show that existing Gaussian filters and smoothers appear as special cases within our inference framework, and that these existing approaches can be improved upon using iterated message passing. Using both synthetic and real-world data, we demonstrate that iterated message passing can improve inference in a wide range of tasks in Bayesian state estimation, thus leading to improved predictions and more effective decision making. State-space models are successfully used in many areas of science, engineering and economics to model time series and dynamical systems. We present a fully Bayesian approach to inference (i.e. state estimation and system identification) in nonlinear nonparametric state-space models. We place a Gaussian process prior over the state transition dynamics, resulting in a flexible model able to capture complex dynamical phenomena. To enable efficient inference, we marginalize over the transition dynamics function and infer directly the joint smoothing distribution using specially tailored Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo samplers. Once a sample from the smoothing distribution is computed, the state transition predictive distribution can be formulated analytically. Our approach preserves the full nonparametric expressivity of the model and can make use of sparse Gaussian processes to greatly reduce computational complexity. This brief introduces a class of problems and models for the prediction of the scalar field of interest from noisy observations collected by mobile sensor networks. It also introduces the problem of optimal coordination of robotic sensors to maximize the prediction quality subject to communication and mobility constraints either in a centralized or distributed manner. To solve such problems, fully Bayesian approaches are adopted, allowing various sources of uncertainties to be integrated into an inferential framework effectively capturing all aspects of variability involved. The fully Bayesian approach also allows the most appropriate values for additional model parameters to be selected automatically by data, and the optimal inference and prediction for the underlying scalar field to be achieved. In particular, spatio-temporal Gaussian process regression is formulated for robotic sensors to fuse multifactorial effects of observations, measurement noise, and prior distributions for obtaining the predictive distribution of a scalar environmental field of interest. New techniques are introduced to avoid computationally prohibitive Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for resource-constrained mobile sensors. Bayesian Prediction and Adaptive Sampling Algorithms for Mobile Sensor Networks starts with a simple spatio-temporal model and increases the level of model flexibility and uncertainty step by step, simultaneously solving increasingly complicated problems and coping with increasing complexity, until it ends with fully Bayesian approaches that take into account a broad spectrum of uncertainties in observations, model parameters, and constraints in mobile sensor networks. The book is timely, being very useful for many researchers in control, robotics, computer science and statistics trying to tackle a variety of tasks such as environmental monitoring and adaptive sampling, surveillance, exploration, and plume tracking which are of increasing currency. Problems are solved creatively by seamless combination of theories and concepts from Bayesian statistics, mobile sensor networks, optimal experiment design, and distributed computation. This paper is concerned with Bayesian optimal filtering and smoothing of non-linear continuous-discrete state space models, where the state dynamics are modeled with non-linear Ito-type stochastic differential equations, and measurements are obtained at discrete time instants from a non-linear measurement model with Gaussian noise. We first show how the recently developed sigma-point approximations as well as the multi-dimensional Gauss-Hermite quadrature and cubature approximations can be applied to classical continuous-discrete Gaussian filtering. We then derive two types of new Gaussian approximation based smoothers for continuous-discrete models and apply the numerical methods to the smoothers. We also show how the latter smoother can be efficiently implemented by including one additional cross-covariance differential equation to the filter prediction step. The performance of the methods is tested in a simulated application.