The accurate estimation of predictive uncertainty carries importance in medical scenarios such as lung node segmentation. Unfortunately, most existing works on predictive uncertainty do not return calibrated uncertainty estimates, which could be used in practice. In this work we exploit multi-grader annotation variability as a source of 'groundtruth' aleatoric uncertainty, which can be treated as a target in a supervised learning problem. We combine this groundtruth uncertainty with a Probabilistic U-Net and test on the LIDC-IDRI lung nodule CT dataset and MICCAI2012 prostate MRI dataset. We find that we are able to improve predictive uncertainty estimates. We also find that we can improve sample accuracy and sample diversity.
In the Probabilistic U-Net @cite_1 , the approximate posterior distribution is given the form @math , where we have set @math . The hidden variables are thus activations @math dependent on the training data. A (conditional) prior over @math is given by a @math . To train this setup, the authors employ a variant of the ELBO with a @math -weight on the KL-penalty Again, @math represents the variational parameters to be optimized. Since at test time we do not have access to @math , we use the prior network and Monte Carlo sample in @math . The specific form of the likelihood @math can be found in the original paper @cite_1 . This method is known to produce very diverse samples, from which we could estimate aleatoric uncertainty. In this paper, we endow the Probabilistic U-Net with a mechanism to estimate epistemic uncertainty and extend this method yet further, such that the aleatoric uncertainty estimates are automatically calibrated to the training set.
@cite_1
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These lecture notes highlight the mathematical and computational structure relating to the formulation of, and development of algorithms for, the Bayesian approach to inverse problems in differential equations. This approach is fundamental in the quantification of uncertainty within applications in volving the blending of mathematical models with data. The finite dimensional situation is described first, along with some motivational examples. Then the development of probability measures on separable Banach space is undertaken, using a random series over an infinite set of functions to construct draws; these probability measures are used as priors in the Bayesian approach to inverse problems. Regularity of draws from the priors is studied in the natural Sobolev or Besov spaces implied by the choice of functions in the random series construction, and the Kolmogorov continuity theorem is used to extend regularity considerations to the space of Holder continuous functions. Bayes’ theorem is de rived in this prior setting, and here interpreted as finding conditions under which the posterior is absolutely continuous with respect to the prior, and determining a formula for the Radon-Nikodym derivative in terms of the likelihood of the data. Having established the form of the posterior, we then describe various properties common to it in the infinite dimensional setting. These properties include well-posedness, approximation theory, and the existence of maximum a posteriori estimators. We then describe measure-preserving dynamics, again on the infinite dimensional space, including Markov chain-Monte C arlo and sequential Monte Carlo methods, and measure-preserving reversible stochastic differential equations. By formulating the theory and algorithms on the underlying infinite dimensional space, we obtain a framework suitable for rigorous analysis of the accuracy of reconstructions, of computational complexity, as well as naturally constructing algorithms which perform well under mesh refinement, since they are inherently well-defined in infinite dimensions. We introduce a dynamic mechanism for the solution of analytically-tractable substructure in probabilistic programs, using conjugate priors and affine transformations to reduce variance in Monte Carlo estimators. For inference with Sequential Monte Carlo, this automatically yields improvements such as locally-optimal proposals and Rao-Blackwellization. The mechanism maintains a directed graph alongside the running program that evolves dynamically as operations are triggered upon it. Nodes of the graph represent random variables, edges the analytically-tractable relationships between them. Random variables remain in the graph for as long as possible, to be sampled only when they are used by the program in a way that cannot be resolved analytically. In the meantime, they are conditioned on as many observations as possible. We demonstrate the mechanism with a few pedagogical examples, as well as a linear-nonlinear state-space model with simulated data, and an epidemiological model with real data of a dengue outbreak in Micronesia. In all cases one or more variables are automatically marginalized out to significantly reduce variance in estimates of the marginal likelihood, in the final case facilitating a random-weight or pseudo-marginal-type importance sampler for parameter estimation. We have implemented the approach in Anglican and a new probabilistic programming language called Birch. We introduce a novel training principle for probabilistic models that is an alternative to maximum likelihood. The proposed Generative Stochastic Networks (GSN) framework is based on learning the transition operator of a Markov chain whose stationary distribution estimates the data distribution. The transition distribution of the Markov chain is conditional on the previous state, generally involving a small move, so this conditional distribution has fewer dominant modes, being unimodal in the limit of small moves. Thus, it is easier to learn because it is easier to approximate its partition function, more like learning to perform supervised function approximation, with gradients that can be obtained by backprop. We provide theorems that generalize recent work on the probabilistic interpretation of denoising autoencoders and obtain along the way an interesting justification for dependency networks and generalized pseudolikelihood, along with a definition of an appropriate joint distribution and sampling mechanism even when the conditionals are not consistent. GSNs can be used with missing inputs and can be used to sample subsets of variables given the rest. We validate these theoretical results with experiments on two image datasets using an architecture that mimics the Deep Boltzmann Machine Gibbs sampler but allows training to proceed with simple backprop, without the need for layerwise pretraining. We investigate the class of computable probability distributions and explore the fundamental limitations of using this class to describe and compute conditional distributions. In addition to proving the existence of noncomputable conditional distributions, and thus ruling out the possibility of generic probabilistic inference algorithms (even inefficient ones), we highlight some positive results showing that posterior inference is possible in the presence of additional structure like exchangeability and noise, both of which are common in Bayesian hierarchical modeling. This theoretical work bears on the development of probabilistic programming languages (which enable the specification of complex probabilistic models) and their implementations (which can be used to perform Bayesian reasoning). The probabilistic programming approach is particularly well suited for defining infinite-dimensional, recursively-defined stochastic processes of the sort used in nonparametric Bayesian statistics. We present a new construction of the Mondrian process as a partition-valued Markov process in continuous time, which can be viewed as placing a distribution on an infinite kd-tree data structure. (Copies available exclusively from MIT Libraries, Rm. 14-0551, Cambridge, MA 02139-4307. Ph. 617-253-5668; Fax 617-253-1690.)