Trajectory prediction (TP) is of great importance for a wide range of location-based applications in intelligent transport systems such as location-based advertising, route planning, traffic management, and early warning systems. In the last few years, the widespread use of GPS navigation systems and wireless communication technology enabled vehicles has resulted in huge volumes of trajectory data. The task of utilizing this data employing spatio-temporal techniques for trajectory prediction in an efficient and accurate manner is an ongoing research problem. Existing TP approaches are limited to short-term predictions. Moreover, they cannot handle a large volume of trajectory data for long-term prediction. To address these limitations, we propose a scalable clustering and Markov chain based hybrid framework, called Traj-clusiVAT-based TP, for both short-term and long-term trajectory prediction, which can handle a large number of overlapping trajectories in a dense road network. Traj-clusiVAT can also determine the number of clusters, which represent different movement behaviours in input trajectory data. In our experiments, we compare our proposed approach with a mixed Markov model (MMM)-based scheme, and a trajectory clustering, NETSCAN-based TP method for both short- and long-term trajectory predictions. We performed our experiments on two real, vehicle trajectory datasets, including a large-scale trajectory dataset consisting of 3.28 million trajectories obtained from 15,061 taxis in Singapore over a period of one month. Experimental results on two real trajectory datasets show that our proposed approach outperforms the existing approaches in terms of both short- and long-term prediction performances, based on prediction accuracy and distance error (in km).
Traditional clustering @cite_35 @cite_53 @cite_26 @cite_15 based prediction methods are not scalable for a large number of trajectories as distance matrix computation is time and space prohibitive. Most of them require the number of clusters to be known in advance, but in practice, it is often unknown, making it difficult for the user to choose the optimal number of clusters for location prediction. Furthermore, the clusters are determined by fixed rules. Some of the road network based clustering approaches @cite_49 @cite_8 , though scalable, produce clusters having high intra-cluster variance, which span a large area of a road network.
@cite_35 @cite_26 @cite_8 @cite_53 @cite_49 @cite_15
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Location is a key context ingredient and many existing pervasive applications rely on the current locations of their users. However, with the ability to predict the future location and movement behavior of a user, the usability of these applications can be greatly improved. In this paper, we propose an approach to predict both the intended destination and the future route of a person. Rather than predicting the destination and future route separately, we have focused on making prediction in an integrated way by exploiting personal movement data (i.e. trajectories) collected by GPS. Since trajectories contain daily whereabouts information of a person, the proposed approach first detects the significant places where the person may depart from or go to using a clustering-based algorithm called FBM (Forward-Backward Matching), then abstracts the trajectories based on a space partitioning method, and finally extracts movement patterns from the abstracted trajectories using an extended CRPM (Continuous Route Pattern Mining) algorithm. Extracted movement patterns are organized in terms of origin-destination couples. The prediction is made based on a pattern tree built from these movement patterns. With the real personal movement data of 14 participants, we conducted a number of experiments to evaluate the performance of our system. The results show that our approach can achieve approximately 80 and 60 accuracy in destination prediction and 1-step prediction, respectively, and result in an average deviation of approximately 60 m in continuous future route prediction. Finally, based on the proposed approach, we implemented a prototype running on mobile phones, which can extract patterns from a user's historical movement data and predict the destination and future route. With the advent of ubiquitous computing, we can easily acquire the locations of moving objects. This paper studies clustering problems for trajectory data that is constrained by the road network. While many trajectory clustering algorithms have been proposed, they do not consider the spatial proximity of objects across the road network. For this kind of data, we propose a new distance measure that reflects the spatial proximity of vehicle trajectories on the road network, and an efficient clustering method that reduces the number of distance computations during the clustering process. Experimental results demonstrate that our proposed method correctly identifies clusters using real-life trajectory data yet reduces the distance computations by up to 80 against the baseline algorithm. Spatio-temporal and geo-referenced datasets are growing rapidly, with the rapid development of some technology, such as GPS, satellite systems. At present, many scholars are very interested in the clustering of the trajectory. Existing trajectory clustering algorithms group similar trajectories as a whole and can't distinguish the direction of trajectory. Our key finding is that clustering trajectories as a whole could miss common sub-trajectories and trajectory has direction information. In many applications, discovering common sub-trajectories is very useful. In this paper, we present a trajectory clustering algorithm CTHD (clustering of trajectory based on hausdorff distance). In the CTHD, the trajectory is firstly described by a sequence of flow vectors and partitioned into a set of sub-trajectory. Next the similarity between trajectories is measured by their respective Hausdorff distances. Finally, the trajectories are clustered by the DBSCAN clustering algorithm. The proposed algorithm is different from other schemes using Hausdorff distance that the flow vectors include the position and direction. So it can distinguish the trajectories in different directions. The experimental result shows the phenomenon. We tackle the problem of extracting stay regions from a geospatial trajectory where a user has stayed longer than a certain time threshold. There are four major difficulties with this problem: (1) stay regions are not only point-type ones such as at a bus-stop but large and arbitrary-shaped ones such as at a shopping mall; (2) trajectories contain spatial outliers; (3) there are missing points in trajectories; and (4) trajectories should be analyzed in an online mode. Previous algorithms cannot overcome these difficulties simultaneously. Density-based batch algorithms have advantages over the previous algorithms in discovering of arbitrary-shaped clusters from spatial data containing outliers; however, they do not consider temporal durations and thus have not been used for extracting stay regions. We extended a density-based algorithm so that it would work in a duration-based manner online and have robustness to missing points in stay regions while keeping its advantages. Experiments on real trajectories of 13 users conducting their daily activities for three weeks demonstrated that our algorithm statistically significantly outperformed five state-of-the-art algorithms in terms of F1 score and works well without trajectory preprocessing consisting of filtering, interpolating, and smoothing.