Prognostics or Remaining Useful Life (RUL) Estimation from multi-sensor time series data is useful to enable condition-based maintenance and ensure high operational availability of equipment. We propose a novel deep learning based approach for Prognostics with Uncertainty Quantification that is useful in scenarios where: (i) access to labeled failure data is scarce due to rarity of failures (ii) future operational conditions are unobserved and (iii) inherent noise is present in the sensor readings. All three scenarios mentioned are unavoidable sources of uncertainty in the RUL estimation process often resulting in unreliable RUL estimates. To address (i), we formulate RUL estimation as an Ordinal Regression (OR) problem, and propose LSTM-OR: deep Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) network based approach to learn the OR function. We show that LSTM-OR naturally allows for incorporation of censored operational instances in training along with the failed instances, leading to more robust learning. To address (ii), we propose a simple yet effective approach to quantify predictive uncertainty in the RUL estimation models by training an ensemble of LSTM-OR models. Through empirical evaluation on C-MAPSS turbofan engine benchmark datasets, we demonstrate that LSTM-OR is significantly better than the commonly used deep metric regression based approaches for RUL estimation, especially when failed training instances are scarce. Further, our uncertainty quantification approach yields high quality predictive uncertainty estimates while also leading to improved RUL estimates compared to single best LSTM-OR models.
: Recently, @cite_4 proposed the use of dropout at the inference time to provide Bayesian approximation in the RUL estimation. Further, @cite_10 proposed the use of an ensemble of neural networks for predictive uncertainty estimation and demonstrated their use in comparison to Bayesian methods. Similarly, we also use an ensemble of LSTM networks to estimate the empirical uncertainty in RUL predictions.
@cite_10 @cite_4
2415594836 2907176385 2744067593 2605055943
Prognostics technique aims to accurately estimate the Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of a subsystem or a component using sensor data, which has many real world applications. However, many of the existing algorithms are based on linear models, which cannot capture the complex relationship between the sensor data and RUL. Although Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) has been applied to predict RUL, it cannot learn salient features automatically, because of its network structure. A novel deep Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) based regression approach for estimating the RUL is proposed in this paper. Although CNN has been applied on tasks such as computer vision, natural language processing, speech recognition etc., this is the first attempt to adopt CNN for RUL estimation in prognostics. Different from the existing CNN structure for computer vision, the convolution and pooling filters in our approach are applied along the temporal dimension over the multi-channel sensor data to incorporate automated feature learning from raw sensor signals in a systematic way. Through the deep architecture, the learned features are the higher-level abstract representation of low-level raw sensor signals. Furthermore, feature learning and RUL estimation are mutually enhanced by the supervised feedback. We compared with several state-of-the-art algorithms on two publicly available data sets to evaluate the effectiveness of this proposed approach. The encouraging results demonstrate that our proposed deep convolutional neural network based regression approach for RUL estimation is not only more efficient but also more accurate. As deep neural networks (DNNs) are applied to increasingly challenging problems, they will need to be able to represent their own uncertainty. Modeling uncertainty is one of the key features of Bayesian methods. Using Bernoulli dropout with sampling at prediction time has recently been proposed as an efficient and well performing variational inference method for DNNs. However, sampling from other multiplicative noise based variational distributions has not been investigated in depth. We evaluated Bayesian DNNs trained with Bernoulli or Gaussian multiplicative masking of either the units (dropout) or the weights (dropconnect). We tested the calibration of the probabilistic predictions of Bayesian convolutional neural networks (CNNs) on MNIST and CIFAR-10. Sampling at prediction time increased the calibration of the DNNs' probabalistic predictions. Sampling weights, whether Gaussian or Bernoulli, led to more robust representation of uncertainty compared to sampling of units. However, using either Gaussian or Bernoulli dropout led to increased test set classification accuracy. Based on these findings we used both Bernoulli dropout and Gaussian dropconnect concurrently, which we show approximates the use of a spike-and-slab variational distribution without increasing the number of learned parameters. We found that spike-and-slab sampling had higher test set performance than Gaussian dropconnect and more robustly represented its uncertainty compared to Bernoulli dropout. Remaining Useful Life (RUL) of a component or a system is defined as the length from the current time to the end of the useful life. Accurate RUL estimation plays a critical role in Prognostics and Health Management(PHM). Data driven approaches for RUL estimation use sensor data and operational data to estimate RUL. Traditional regression based approaches and recent Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) approach use features created from sliding windows to build models. However, sequence information is not fully considered in these approaches. Sequence learning models such as Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) have flaws when modeling sequence information. HMMs are limited to discrete hidden states and are known to have issues when modeling long-term dependencies in the data. RNNs also have issues with long-term dependencies. In this work, we propose a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) approach for RUL estimation, which can make full use of the sensor sequence information and expose hidden patterns within sensor data with multiple operating conditions, fault and degradation models. Extensive experiments using three widely adopted Prognostics and Health Management data sets show that LSTM for RUL estimation significantly outperforms traditional approaches for RUL estimation as well as Convolutional Neural Network (CNN). To obtain uncertainty estimates with real-world Bayesian deep learning models, practical inference approximations are needed. Dropout variational inference (VI) for example has been used for machine vision and medical applications, but VI can severely underestimates model uncertainty. Alpha-divergences are alternative divergences to VI's KL objective, which are able to avoid VI's uncertainty underestimation. But these are hard to use in practice: existing techniques can only use Gaussian approximating distributions, and require existing models to be changed radically, thus are of limited use for practitioners. We propose a reparametrisation of the alpha-divergence objectives, deriving a simple inference technique which, together with dropout, can be easily implemented with existing models by simply changing the loss of the model. We demonstrate improved uncertainty estimates and accuracy compared to VI in dropout networks. We study our model's epistemic uncertainty far away from the data using adversarial images, showing that these can be distinguished from non-adversarial images by examining our model's uncertainty.