Behaviour cloning is a commonly used strategy for imitation learning and can be extremely effective in constrained domains. However, in cases where the dynamics of an environment may be state dependent and varying, behaviour cloning places a burden on model capacity and the number of demonstrations required. This paper introduces switching density networks, which rely on a categorical reparametrisation for hybrid system identification. This results in a network comprising a classification layer that is followed by a regression layer. We use switching density networks to predict the parameters of hybrid control laws, which are toggled by a switching layer to produce different controller outputs, when conditioned on an input state. This work shows how switching density networks can be used for hybrid system identification in a variety of tasks, successfully identifying the key joint angle goals that make up manipulation tasks, while simultaneously learning image-based goal classifiers and regression networks that predict joint angles from images. We also show that they can cluster the phase space of an inverted pendulum, identifying the balance, spin and pump controllers required to solve this task. Switching density networks can be difficult to train, but we introduce a cross entropy regularisation loss that stabilises training.
Learning for switching state space models can also be considered from a changepoint detection perspective, and a range of numerical inference techniques have been used to detect changepoints in sequential data @cite_13 . More recently, variational and gradient-based inference strategies for Bayesian learning have proved useful in hierarchical modelling @cite_29 @cite_27 and variational auto-encoding @cite_26 .
@cite_27 @cite_29 @cite_26 @cite_13
2102134363 2529448179 2396178844 2122263489
We show that the optimal decision policy for several types of Bayesian sequential detection problems has a threshold switching curve structure on the space of posterior distributions. This is established by using lattice programming and stochastic orders in a partially observed Markov decision process (POMDP) framework. A stochastic gradient algorithm is presented to estimate the optimal linear approximation to this threshold curve. We illustrate these results by first considering quickest time detection with phase-type distributed change time and a variance stopping penalty. Then it is proved that the threshold switching curve also arises in several other Bayesian decision problems such as quickest transient detection, exponential delay (risk-sensitive) penalties, stopping time problems in social learning, and multi-agent scheduling in a changing world. Using Blackwell dominance, it is shown that for dynamic decision making problems, the optimal decision policy is lower bounded by a myopic policy. Finally, it is shown how the achievable cost of the optimal decision policy varies with change time distribution by imposing a partial order on transition matrices. Gaussian state space models have been used for decades as generative models of sequential data. They admit an intuitive probabilistic interpretation, have a simple functional form, and enjoy widespread adoption. We introduce a unified algorithm to efficiently learn a broad class of linear and non-linear state space models, including variants where the emission and transition distributions are modeled by deep neural networks. Our learning algorithm simultaneously learns a compiled inference network and the generative model, leveraging a structured variational approximation parameterized by recurrent neural networks to mimic the posterior distribution. We apply the learning algorithm to both synthetic and real-world datasets, demonstrating its scalability and versatility. We find that using the structured approximation to the posterior results in models with significantly higher held-out likelihood. We introduce Deep Variational Bayes Filters (DVBF), a new method for unsupervised learning of latent Markovian state space models. Leveraging recent advances in Stochastic Gradient Variational Bayes, DVBF can overcome intractable inference distributions by means of variational inference. Thus, it can handle highly nonlinear input data with temporal and spatial dependencies such as image sequences without domain knowledge. Our experiments show that enabling backpropagation through transitions enforces state space assumptions and significantly improves information content of the latent embedding. This also enables realistic long-term prediction. Identification of nonlinear state space models when no information is available from the state transition or output model has played an important role in the recent research. In this paper, we propose a new approach for modeling a discrete time nonlinear state space system with a multi layer perceptron (MLP) neural network. The expectation maximization (EM) algorithm is used for joint parameter and state estimation of the proposed structure where the particle smoothing algorithm will be applied for estimating hidden states. Because of the non-affine structure of MLP networks compared with some other models such as radial basis functions, the gradient method is used at the M phase of the EM algorithm for parameter and noise estimation. Simulation studies show the superiority and fast convergence of our proposed structure in identification of nonlinear state space models.