Optimising black-box functions is important in many disciplines, such as tuning machine learning models, robotics, finance and mining exploration. Bayesian optimisation is a state-of-the-art technique for the global optimisation of black-box functions which are expensive to evaluate. At the core of this approach is a Gaussian process prior that captures our belief about the distribution over functions. However, in many cases a single Gaussian process is not flexible enough to capture non-stationarity in the objective function. Consequently, heteroscedasticity negatively affects performance of traditional Bayesian methods. In this paper, we propose a novel prior model with hierarchical parameter learning that tackles the problem of non-stationarity in Bayesian optimisation. Our results demonstrate substantial improvements in a wide range of applications, including automatic machine learning and mining exploration.
Several approaches have been proposed to manage heteroscedasticity with Gaussian processes. @cite_20 attempted to project inputs into a latent space that is stationary. This approach was later extended by @cite_9 . A latent space representation in higher dimensions was also proposed by @cite_3 . Others such as @cite_12 and @cite_11 have tried to model heteroscedasticity directly with the choice of covariance function. In 2005, gramacy2005bayesian proposed a treed GP model to attack non-stationarity. While this work, as well as, the work of @cite_2 , are the closest to ours, both were developed for modelling functions and not for global optimisation under a limited number of observations.
@cite_9 @cite_3 @cite_2 @cite_20 @cite_12 @cite_11
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The representation of a knowledge graph (KG) in a latent space recently has attracted more and more attention. To this end, some proposed models (e.g., TransE) embed entities and relations of a KG into a "point" vector space by optimizing a global loss function which ensures the scores of positive triplets are higher than negative ones. We notice that these models always regard all entities and relations in a same manner and ignore their (un)certainties. In fact, different entities and relations may contain different certainties, which makes identical certainty insufficient for modeling. Therefore, this paper switches to density-based embedding and propose KG2E for explicitly modeling the certainty of entities and relations, which learn the representations of KGs in the space of multi-dimensional Gaussian distributions. Each entity relation is represented by a Gaussian distribution, where the mean denotes its position and the covariance (currently with diagonal covariance) can properly represent its certainty. In addition, compared with the symmetric measures used in point-based methods, we employ the KL-divergence for scoring triplets, which is a natural asymmetry function for effectively modeling multiple types of relations. We have conducted extensive experiments on link prediction and triplet classification with multiple benchmark datasets (WordNet and Freebase). Our experimental results demonstrate that our method can effectively model the (un)certainties of entities and relations in a KG, and it significantly outperforms state-of-the-art methods (including TransH and TransR). In this paper, we propose a Gaussian process (GP) model for analysis of nonlinear time series. Formulation of our model is based on the consideration that the observed data are functions of latent variables, with the associated mapping between observations and latent representations modeled through GP priors. In addition, to capture the temporal dynamics in the modeled data, we assume that subsequent latent representations depend on each other on the basis of a hidden Markov prior imposed over them. Derivation of our model is performed by marginalizing out the model parameters in closed form using GP priors for observation mappings, and appropriate stick-breaking priors for the latent variable (Markovian) dynamics. This way, we eventually obtain a nonparametric Bayesian model for dynamical systems that accounts for uncertainty in the modeled data. We provide efficient inference algorithms for our model on the basis of a truncated variational Bayesian approximation. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach considering a number of applications dealing with real-world data, and compare it with the related state-of-the-art approaches. We introduce the Gaussian Process Convolution Model (GPCM), a two-stage non-parametric generative procedure to model stationary signals as the convolution between a continuous-time white-noise process and a continuous-time linear filter drawn from Gaussian process. The GPCM is a continuous-time nonparametric-window moving average process and, conditionally, is itself a Gaussian process with a nonparametric kernel defined in a probabilistic fashion. The generative model can be equivalently considered in the frequency domain, where the power spectral density of the signal is specified using a Gaussian process. One of the main contributions of the paper is to develop a novel variational free-energy approach based on inter-domain inducing variables that efficiently learns the continuous-time linear filter and infers the driving white-noise process. In turn, this scheme provides closed-form probabilistic estimates of the covariance kernel and the noise-free signal both in denoising and prediction scenarios. Additionally, the variational inference procedure provides closed-form expressions for the approximate posterior of the spectral density given the observed data, leading to new Bayesian nonparametric approaches to spectrum estimation. The proposed GPCM is validated using synthetic and real-world signals. Gaussian process (GP) models are very popular for machine learning and regression and they are widely used to account for spatial or temporal relationships between multivariate random variables. In this paper, we propose a general formulation of underdetermined source separation as a problem involving GP regression. The advantage of the proposed unified view is first to describe the different underdetermined source separation problems as particular cases of a more general framework. Second, it provides a flexible means to include a variety of prior information concerning the sources such as smoothness, local stationarity or periodicity through the use of adequate covariance functions. Third, given the model, it provides an optimal solution in the minimum mean squared error (MMSE) sense to the source separation problem. In order to make the GP models tractable for very large signals, we introduce framing as a GP approximation and we show that computations for regularly sampled and locally stationary GPs can be done very efficiently in the frequency domain. These findings establish a deep connection between GP and nonnegative tensor factorizations (NTF) with the Itakura-Saito distance and lead to effective methods to learn GP hyperparameters for very large and regularly sampled signals.