The evolution of social media popularity exhibits rich temporality, i.e., popularities change over time at various levels of temporal granularity. This is influenced by temporal variations of public attentions or user activities. For example, popularity patterns of street snap on Flickr are observed to depict distinctive fashion styles at specific time scales, such as season-based periodic fluctuations for Trench Coat or one-off peak in days for Evening Dress. However, this fact is often overlooked by existing research of popularity modeling. We present the first study to incorporate multiple time-scale dynamics into predicting online popularity. We propose a novel computational framework in the paper, named Multi-scale Temporalization, for estimating popularity based on multi-scale decomposition and structural reconstruction in a tensor space of user, post, and time by joint low-rank constraints. By considering the noise caused by context inconsistency, we design a data rearrangement step based on context aggregation as preprocessing to enhance contextual relevance of neighboring data in the tensor space. As a result, our approach can leverage multiple levels of temporal characteristics and reduce the noise of data decomposition to improve modeling effectiveness. We evaluate our approach on two large-scale Flickr image datasets with over 1.8 million photos in total, for the task of popularity prediction. The results show that our approach significantly outperforms state-of-the-art popularity prediction techniques, with a relative improvement of 10.9 -47.5 in terms of prediction accuracy.
The first paradigm focuses on exploring the patterns of evolving trend for popularity variations @cite_8 @cite_51 @cite_11 @cite_33 . Throughout the early years, Szabo and Huberman attempted to analyze online popularity trend growth with pattern characteristics @cite_40 . Mathioudakis and Koudas detected popularity trends by bursty key words in Twitter @cite_14 . Yang and Leskovec found the cluster centroids of patterns associated with overall items and how the content's popularity grows and fades over time @cite_23 . Roy proposed a novel transfer learning framework to grasp sudden popularity trend bursts with temporal knowledge from social streams @cite_2 . Kong explored the problems of real-time prediction of bursting hashtags. Although these works exploited general comprehension on the variance mechanisms of popularity evolution, most of them are designed for general popularity or a group of items online @cite_8 . These models have limited effectiveness on predicting the individual popularity in social media.
@cite_14 @cite_33 @cite_8 @cite_40 @cite_23 @cite_2 @cite_51 @cite_11
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The evolution of social media popularity exhibits rich temporality, i.e., popularities change over time at various levels of temporal granularity. This is influenced by temporal variations of public attentions or user activities. For example, popularity patterns of street snap on Flickr are observed to depict distinctive fashion styles at specific time scales, such as season-based periodic fluctuations for Trench Coat or one-off peak in days for Evening Dress. However, this fact is often overlooked by existing research of popularity modeling. We present the first study to incorporate multiple time-scale dynamics into predicting online popularity. We propose a novel computational framework in the paper, named Multi-scale Temporalization, for estimating popularity based on multi-scale decomposition and structural reconstruction in a tensor space of user, post, and time by joint low-rank constraints. By considering the noise caused by context inconsistency, we design a data rearrangement step based on context aggregation as preprocessing to enhance contextual relevance of neighboring data in the tensor space. As a result, our approach can leverage multiple levels of temporal characteristics and reduce the noise of data decomposition to improve modeling effectiveness. We evaluate our approach on two large-scale Flickr image datasets with over 1.8 million photos in total, for the task of popularity prediction. The results show that our approach significantly outperforms state-of-the-art popularity prediction techniques, with a relative improvement of 10.9 -47.5 in terms of prediction accuracy. The wide availability of user-provided content in online social media facilitates the aggregation of people around common interests, worldviews, and narratives. However, the World Wide Web (WWW) also allows for the rapid dissemination of unsubstantiated rumors and conspiracy theories that often elicit rapid, large, but naive social responses such as the recent case of Jade Helm 15––where a simple military exercise turned out to be perceived as the beginning of a new civil war in the United States. In this work, we address the determinants governing misinformation spreading through a thorough quantitative analysis. In particular, we focus on how Facebook users consume information related to two distinct narratives: scientific and conspiracy news. We find that, although consumers of scientific and conspiracy stories present similar consumption patterns with respect to content, cascade dynamics differ. Selective exposure to content is the primary driver of content diffusion and generates the formation of homogeneous clusters, i.e., “echo chambers.” Indeed, homogeneity appears to be the primary driver for the diffusion of contents and each echo chamber has its own cascade dynamics. Finally, we introduce a data-driven percolation model mimicking rumor spreading and we show that homogeneity and polarization are the main determinants for predicting cascades’ size. Previous research on online media popularity prediction concluded that the rise in popularity of online videos maintains a conventional logarithmic distribution. However, recent studies have shown that a significant portion of online videos exhibit bursty sudden rise in popularity, which cannot be accounted for by video domain features alone. In this paper, we propose a novel transfer learning framework that utilizes knowledge from social streams (e.g., Twitter) to grasp sudden popularity bursts in online content. We develop a transfer learning algorithm that can learn topics from social streams allowing us to model the social prominence of video content and improve popularity predictions in the video domain. Our transfer learning framework has the ability to scale with incoming stream of tweets, harnessing physical world event information in real-time. Using data comprising of 10.2 million tweets and 3.5 million YouTube videos, we show that social prominence of the video topic (context) is responsible for the sudden rise in its popularity where social trends have a ripple effect as they spread from the Twitter domain to the video domain. We envision that our cross-domain popularity prediction model will be substantially useful for various media applications that could not be previously solved by traditional multimedia techniques alone. While the study of the connection between discourse patterns and personal identification is decades old, the study of these patterns using language technologies is relatively recent. In that more recent tradition we frame author age prediction from text as a regression problem. We explore the same task using three very different genres of data simultaneously: blogs, telephone conversations, and online forum posts. We employ a technique from domain adaptation that allows us to train a joint model involving all three corpora together as well as separately and analyze differences in predictive features across joint and corpus-specific aspects of the model. Effective features include both stylistic ones (such as POS patterns) as well as content oriented ones. Using a linear regression model based on shallow text features, we obtain correlations up to 0.74 and mean absolute errors between 4.1 and 6.8 years.