User engagement refers to the amount of interaction an instance (e.g., tweet, news, and forum post) achieves. Ranking the items in social media websites based on the amount of user participation in them, can be used in different applications, such as recommender systems. In this paper, we consider a tweet containing a rating for a movie as an instance and focus on ranking the instances of each user based on their engagement, i.e., the total number of retweets and favorites it will gain. For this task, we define several features which can be extracted from the meta-data of each tweet. The features are partitioned into three categories: user-based, movie-based, and tweet-based. We show that in order to obtain good results, features from all categories should be considered. We exploit regression and learning to rank methods to rank the tweets and propose to aggregate the results of regression and learning to rank methods to achieve better performance. We have run our experiments on an extended version of MovieTweeting dataset provided by ACM RecSys Challenge 2014. The results show that learning to rank approach outperforms most of the regression models and the combination can improve the performance significantly.
Predicting the extent to which a news is going to be breaking or how many comments a news is going to gain is one of the engagement prediction problems. @cite_20 have analyzed a news dataset to address this problem. They have focused on sorting the articles based on their future popularity and they have proposed to use linear regression for this task.
@cite_20
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Understanding user participation is fundamental in anticipating the popularity of online content. In this paper, we explore how the number of users' comments during a short observation period after publication can be used to predict the expected popularity of articles published by a countrywide online newspaper. We evaluate a simple linear prediction model on a real dataset of hundreds of thousands of articles and several millions of comments collected over a period of four years. Analyzing the accuracy of our proposed model for different values of its basic parameters we provide valuable insights on the potentials and limitations for predicting content popularity based on early user activity. News articles are a captivating type of online content that capture a significant amount of Internet users' interest. They are particularly consumed by mobile users and extremely diffused through online social platforms. As a result, there is an increased interest in promptly identifying the articles that will receive a significant amount of user attention. This task falls under the broad scope of content popularity prediction and has direct implications in various contexts such as caching strategies or online advertisement policies. In this paper we address the problem of predicting the popularity of news articles based on user comments. We formulate the prediction task into a ranking problem where the goal is not to infer the precise attention that a content will receive but to accurately rank articles based on their predicted popularity. To this end, we analyze the ranking performance of three prediction models using a dataset of articles covering a four-year period and published by 20minutes.fr, an important French online news platform. Our results indicate that prediction methods improve the ranking performance and we observed that for our dataset a simple linear prediction method outperforms more dedicated prediction methods. While the study of the connection between discourse patterns and personal identification is decades old, the study of these patterns using language technologies is relatively recent. In that more recent tradition we frame author age prediction from text as a regression problem. We explore the same task using three very different genres of data simultaneously: blogs, telephone conversations, and online forum posts. We employ a technique from domain adaptation that allows us to train a joint model involving all three corpora together as well as separately and analyze differences in predictive features across joint and corpus-specific aspects of the model. Effective features include both stylistic ones (such as POS patterns) as well as content oriented ones. Using a linear regression model based on shallow text features, we obtain correlations up to 0.74 and mean absolute errors between 4.1 and 6.8 years. In this paper, we propose a methodology to predict the popularity of online contents. More precisely, rather than trying to infer the popularity of a content itself, we infer the likelihood that a content will be popular. Our approach is rooted in survival analysis where predicting the precise lifetime of an individual is very hard and almost impossible but predicting the likelihood of one's survival longer than a threshold or another individual is possible. We position ourselves in the standpoint of an external observer who has to infer the popularity of a content only using publicly observable metrics, such as the lifetime of a thread, the number of comments, and the number of views. Our goal is to infer these observable metrics, using a set of explanatory factors, such as the number of comments and the number of links in the first hours after the content publication, which are observable by the external observer. We use a Cox proportional hazard regression model that divides the distribution function of the observable popularity metric into two components: a) one that can be explained by the given set of explanatory factors (called risk factors) and b) a baseline distribution function that integrates all the factors not taken into account. To validate our proposed approach, we use data sets from two different online discussion forums: dpreview.com, one of the largest online discussion groups providing news and discussion forums about all kinds of digital cameras, and myspace.com, one of the representative online social networking services. On these two data sets we model two different popularity metrics, the lifetime of threads and the number of comments, and show that our approach can predict the lifetime of threads from Dpreview (Myspace) by observing a thread during the first 5 6 days (24 hours, respectively) and the number of comments of Dpreview threads by observing a thread during first 2 3 days.