For autonomous agents to successfully operate in the real world, anticipation of future events and states of their environment is a key competence. This problem has been formalized as a sequence extrapolation problem, where a number of observations are used to predict the sequence into the future. Real-world scenarios demand a model of uncertainty of such predictions, as predictions become increasingly uncertain -- in particular on long time horizons. While impressive results have been shown on point estimates, scenarios that induce multi-modal distributions over future sequences remain challenging. Our work addresses these challenges in a Gaussian Latent Variable model for sequence prediction. Our core contribution is a "Best of Many" sample objective that leads to more accurate and more diverse predictions that better capture the true variations in real-world sequence data. Beyond our analysis of improved model fit, our models also empirically outperform prior work on three diverse tasks ranging from traffic scenes to weather data.
Recurrent Neural Networks. Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) are state of the art methods for variety of sequence learning tasks @cite_16 @cite_10 . In this work, we focus on sequence to sequence regression tasks, in particular, trajectory prediction and image sequence prediction. RNNs have been used for pedestrian trajectory prediction. In @cite_18 , trajectories of multiple people in a scene are jointly modelled in a social context. However, even though the distribution of pedestrian trajectories are highly multimodal (with diverse futures), only one mean estimate is modelled. @cite_0 jointly models multiple future pedestrian trajectories using a recurrent CVAE sampling module. Samples generated are refined and ranked using image and social context features. While our trajectory prediction model is similar to the sampling module of @cite_0 , we focus on improving the sampling module by our novel multi-sample objective function. Convolutional RNNs @cite_22 have been used for image sequence prediction. Examples include, robotic arm movement prediction @cite_26 and precipitation now-casting @cite_22 @cite_15 . In this work, we extend the model of @cite_22 for structured sequence prediction by conditioning predictions on Gaussian latent variables. Furthermore, we show that optimization using our novel multi-sample objective leads to improved results over the standard CVAE objective.
@cite_18 @cite_26 @cite_22 @cite_0 @cite_15 @cite_16 @cite_10
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Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) are very powerful sequence models that do not enjoy widespread use because it is extremely difficult to train them properly. Fortunately, recent advances in Hessian-free optimization have been able to overcome the difficulties associated with training RNNs, making it possible to apply them successfully to challenging sequence problems. In this paper we demonstrate the power of RNNs trained with the new Hessian-Free optimizer (HF) by applying them to character-level language modeling tasks. The standard RNN architecture, while effective, is not ideally suited for such tasks, so we introduce a new RNN variant that uses multiplicative (or "gated") connections which allow the current input character to determine the transition matrix from one hidden state vector to the next. After training the multiplicative RNN with the HF optimizer for five days on 8 high-end Graphics Processing Units, we were able to surpass the performance of the best previous single method for character-level language modeling – a hierarchical non-parametric sequence model. To our knowledge this represents the largest recurrent neural network application to date. Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have emerged as a powerful model for a broad range of machine learning problems that involve sequential data. While an abundance of work exists to understand and improve RNNs in the context of language and audio signals such as language modeling and speech recognition, relatively little attention has been paid to analyze or modify RNNs for visual sequences, which by nature have distinct properties. In this paper, we aim to bridge this gap and present the first large-scale exploration of RNNs for visual sequence learning. In particular, with the intention of leveraging the strong generalization capacity of pre-trained convolutional neural networks (CNNs), we propose a novel and effective approach, PreRNN, to make pre-trained CNNs recurrent by transforming convolutional layers or fully connected layers into recurrent layers. We conduct extensive evaluations on three representative visual sequence learning tasks: sequential face alignment, dynamic hand gesture recognition, and action recognition. Our experiments reveal that PreRNN consistently outperforms the traditional RNNs and achieves state-of-the-art results on the three applications, suggesting that PreRNN is more suitable for visual sequence learning. Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) such as long short-term memory and gated recurrent units are pivotal building blocks across a broad spectrum of sequence modeling problems. This paper proposes a recurrently controlled recurrent network (RCRN) for expressive and powerful sequence encoding. More concretely, the key idea behind our approach is to learn the recurrent gating functions using recurrent networks. Our architecture is split into two components - a controller cell and a listener cell whereby the recurrent controller actively influences the compositionality of the listener cell. We conduct extensive experiments on a myriad of tasks in the NLP domain such as sentiment analysis (SST, IMDb, Amazon reviews, etc.), question classification (TREC), entailment classification (SNLI, SciTail), answer selection (WikiQA, TrecQA) and reading comprehension (NarrativeQA). Across all 26 datasets, our results demonstrate that RCRN not only consistently outperforms BiLSTMs but also stacked BiLSTMs, suggesting that our controller architecture might be a suitable replacement for the widely adopted stacked architecture. Additionally, RCRN achieves state-of-the-art results on several well-established datasets. Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) are powerful sequence models that were believed to be difficult to train, and as a result they were rarely used in machine learning applications. This thesis presents methods that overcome the difficulty of training RNNs, and applications of RNNs to challenging problems. We first describe a new probabilistic sequence model that combines Restricted Boltzmann Machines and RNNs. The new model is more powerful than similar models while being less difficult to train. Next, we present a new variant of the Hessian-free (HF) optimizer and show that it can train RNNs on tasks that have extreme long-range temporal dependencies, which were previously considered to be impossibly hard. We then apply HF to character-level language modelling and get excellent results. We also apply HF to optimal control and obtain RNN control laws that can successfully operate under conditions of delayed feedback and unknown disturbances. Finally, we describe a random parameter initialization scheme that allows gradient descent with momentum to train RNNs on problems with long-term dependencies. This directly contradicts widespread beliefs about the inability of first-order methods to do so, and suggests that previous attempts at training RNNs failed partly due to flaws in the random initialization.