Estimation of parameters of a diffusion based on discrete time observations poses a difficult problem due to the lack of a closed form expression for the likelihood. From a Bayesian computational perspective it can be casted as a missing data problem where the diffusion bridges in between discrete-time observations are missing. The computational problem can then be dealt with using a Markov-chain Monte-Carlo method known as data-augmentation. If unknown parameters appear in the diffusion coefficient, direct implementation of data-augmentation results in a Markov chain that is reducible. Furthermore, data-augmentation requires efficient sampling of diffusion bridges, which can be difficult, especially in the multidimensional case. We present a general framework to deal with with these problems that does not rely on discretisation. The construction generalises previous approaches and sheds light on the assumptions necessary to make these approaches work. We define a random-walk type Metropolis-Hastings sampler for updating diffusion bridges. Our methods are illustrated using guided proposals for sampling diffusion bridges. These are Markov processes obtained by adding a guiding term to the drift of the diffusion. We give general guidelines on the construction of these proposals and introduce a time change and scaling of the guided proposal that reduces discretisation error. Numerical examples demonstrate the performance of our methods.
Without loss of generality we may assume we have have one observation @math . If @math in , a slight adjustment of the Euler discretisation of the bridge (introduced by @cite_9 ) sets where @math and @math (the adjustment being the addition of the term @math in front of @math ). If @math is small, the right hand side defines a discrete time Markov chain approximation @math to @math termed the Modified Brownian Bridge. We can define a mapping @math by the relation [ ( X^ , , X^ ) =g( , W_1, , W_N), ] where @math and @math . This implies that parameters in the diffusion coefficient can be updated conditional on @math , instead of @math ; thereby preventing degeneracy of the data-aug -men -ta -tion algorithm. This is the approach of @cite_30 . @cite_23 use the same algorithm using Euler discretisation of @math in case @math (so no correction in the diffusion coefficient appears in the discretisation). Note that there is no formal proof that these methods work as @math .
@cite_30 @cite_9 @cite_23
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Estimation of parameters of a diffusion based on discrete time observations poses a difficult problem due to the lack of a closed form expression for the likelihood. From a Bayesian computational perspective it can be casted as a missing data problem where the diffusion bridges in between discrete-time observations are missing. The computational problem can then be dealt with using a Markov-chain Monte-Carlo method known as data-augmentation. If unknown parameters appear in the diffusion coefficient, direct implementation of data-augmentation results in a Markov chain that is reducible. Furthermore, data-augmentation requires efficient sampling of diffusion bridges, which can be difficult, especially in the multidimensional case. We present a general framework to deal with with these problems that does not rely on discretisation. The construction generalises previous approaches and sheds light on the assumptions necessary to make these approaches work. We define a random-walk type Metropolis-Hastings sampler for updating diffusion bridges. Our methods are illustrated using guided proposals for sampling diffusion bridges. These are Markov processes obtained by adding a guiding term to the drift of the diffusion. We give general guidelines on the construction of these proposals and introduce a time change and scaling of the guided proposal that reduces discretisation error. Numerical examples demonstrate the performance of our methods. We study supercritical branching Brownian motion on the real line starting at the origin and with constant drift @math . At the point @math , we add an absorbing barrier, i.e. individuals touching the barrier are instantly killed without producing offspring. It is known that there is a critical drift @math , such that this process becomes extinct almost surely if and only if @math . In this case, if @math denotes the number of individuals absorbed at the barrier, we give an asymptotic for @math as @math goes to infinity. If @math and the reproduction is deterministic, this improves upon results of [L. Addario-Berry and N. Broutin (2009), http: arxiv.org abs 0908.1083v1 ] and [E. A " dekon (2009), http: arxiv.org abs 0911.0877v1 ] on a conjecture by David Aldous about the total progeny of a branching random walk. The main technique used in the proofs is analysis of the generating function of @math near its singular point @math , based on classical results on some complex differential equations. A discrete uncoupling process for finite spaces is introduced, called the Markov Cluster Process or the MCL process. The process is the engine for the graph clustering algorithm called the MCL algorithm. The MCL process takes a stochastic matrix as input, and then alternates expansion and inflation, each step defining a stochastic matrix in terms of the previous one. Expansion corresponds with taking the @math th power of a stochastic matrix, where @math . Inflation corresponds with a parametrized operator @math , @math , that maps the set of (column) stochastic matrices onto itself. The image @math is obtained by raising each entry in @math to the @math th power and rescaling each column to have sum 1 again. In practice the process converges very fast towards a limit that is invariant under both matrix multiplication and inflation, with quadratic convergence around the limit points. The heuristic behind the process is its expected behavior for (Markov) graphs possessing cluster structure. The process is typically applied to the matrix of random walks on a given graph @math , and the connected components of (the graph associated with) the process limit generically allow a clustering interpretation of @math . The limit is in general extremely sparse and iterands are sparse in a weighted sense, implying that the MCL algorithm is very fast and highly scalable. Several mathematical properties of the MCL process are established. Most notably, the process (and algorithm) iterands posses structural properties generalizing the mapping from process limits onto clusterings. The inflation operator @math maps the class of matrices that are diagonally similar to a symmetric matrix onto itself. The phrase diagonally positive semi-definite (dpsd) is used for matrices that are diagonally similar to a positive semi-definite matrix. For @math and for @math a stochastic dpsd matrix, the image @math is again dpsd. Determinantal inequalities satisfied by a dpsd matrix @math imply a natural ordering among the diagonal elements of @math , generalizing the mapping of process limits onto clusterings. The spectrum of @math is of the form @math , where @math is the number of endclasses of the ordering associated with @math , and @math is the dimension of @math . This attests to the uncoupling effect of the inflation operator. In this work we show that for every @math , such that for all @math where the parameters of the model do not depend on @math . They also provide a rare example where one can prove a polynomial time mixing of Gibbs sampler in a situation where the actual mixing time is slower than @math . Our proof exploits in novel ways the local treelike structure of Erd o s-R 'enyi random graphs, comparison and block dynamics arguments and a recent result of Weitz. Our results extend to much more general families of graphs which are sparse in some average sense and to much more general interactions. In particular, they apply to any graph for which every vertex @math of the graph has a neighborhood @math of radius @math in which the induced sub-graph is a tree union at most @math edges and where for each simple path in @math the sum of the vertex degrees along the path is @math . Moreover, our result apply also in the case of arbitrary external fields and provide the first FPRAS for sampling the Ising distribution in this case. We finally present a non Markov Chain algorithm for sampling the distribution which is effective for a wider range of parameters. In particular, for @math it applies for all external fields and @math , where @math is the critical point for decay of correlation for the Ising model on @math .