Urban dispersal events are processes where an unusually large number of people leave the same area in a short period. Early prediction of dispersal events is important in mitigating congestion and safety risks and making better dispatching decisions for taxi and ride-sharing fleets. Existing work mostly focuses on predicting taxi demand in the near future by learning patterns from historical data. However, they fail in case of abnormality because dispersal events with abnormally high demand are non-repetitive and violate common assumptions such as smoothness in demand change over time. Instead, in this paper we argue that dispersal events follow a complex pattern of trips and other related features in the past, which can be used to predict such events. Therefore, we formulate the dispersal event prediction problem as a survival analysis problem. We propose a two-stage framework (DILSA), where a deep learning model combined with survival analysis is developed to predict the probability of a dispersal event and its demand volume. We conduct extensive case studies and experiments on the NYC Yellow taxi dataset from 2014-2016. Results show that DILSA can predict events in the next 5 hours with F1-score of 0.7 and with average time error of 18 minutes. It is orders of magnitude better than the state-ofthe-art deep learning approaches for taxi demand prediction.
Event detection has been widely studied in various domains, including public health, urban computing, and social network analysis. The works @cite_10 @cite_5 @cite_20 and other recent works on event detection @cite_13 @cite_1 use already observed counts. An event is defined as a region with significantly higher counts, such as disease reports or number of taxi drops. Social media posts and geo-tagged tweets have been used as well to detect and forecast events such as social unrests and protests @cite_0 @cite_19 @cite_21 @cite_6 . Regions and time windows where the frequency of certain keywords exhibit abnormal changes are identified as events. These works do not use mobility data. The of the events such as gathering or dispersing .
@cite_10 @cite_21 @cite_1 @cite_6 @cite_0 @cite_19 @cite_5 @cite_13 @cite_20
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Spatial event detection is an important and challenging problem. Unlike traditional event detection that focuses on the timing of global urgent event, the task of spatial event detection is to detect the spatial regions (e.g. clusters of neighboring cities) where urgent events occur. In this paper, we focus on the problem of spatial event detection using textual information in social media. We observe that, when a spatial event occurs, the topics relevant to the event are often discussed more coherently in cities near the event location than those far away. In order to capture this pattern, we propose a new method called Graph Topic Scan Statistic (Graph-TSS) that corresponds to a generalized log-likelihood ratio test based on topic modeling. We first demonstrate that the detection of spatial event regions under Graph-TSS is NP-hard due to a reduction from classical node-weighted prize-collecting Steiner tree problem (NW-PCST). We then design an efficient algorithm that approximately maximizes the graph topic scan statistic over spatial regions of arbitrary form. As a case study, we consider three applications using Twitter data, including Argentina civil unrest event detection, Chile earthquake detection, and United States influenza disease outbreak detection. Empirical evidence demonstrates that the proposed Graph-TSS performs superior over state-of-the-art methods on both running time and accuracy. Event detection in social media is an important but challenging problem. Most existing approaches are based on burst detection, topic modeling, or clustering techniques, which cannot naturally model the implicit heterogeneous network structure in social media. As a result, only limited information, such as terms and geographic locations, can be used. This paper presents Non-Parametric Heterogeneous Graph Scan (NPHGS), a new approach that considers the entire heterogeneous network for event detection: we first model the network as a "sensor" network, in which each node senses its "neighborhood environment" and reports an empirical p-value measuring its current level of anomalousness for each time interval (e.g., hour or day). Then, we efficiently maximize a nonparametric scan statistic over connected subgraphs to identify the most anomalous network clusters. Finally, the event represented by each cluster is summarized with information such as type of event, geographical locations, time, and participants. As a case study, we consider two applications using Twitter data, civil unrest event detection and rare disease outbreak detection, and present empirical evaluations illustrating the effectiveness and efficiency of our proposed approach. Detecting local events (e.g., protest, disaster) at their onsets is an important task for a wide spectrum of applications, ranging from disaster control to crime monitoring and place recommendation. Recent years have witnessed growing interest in leveraging geo-tagged tweet streams for online local event detection. Nevertheless, the accuracies of existing methods still remain unsatisfactory for building reliable local event detection systems. We propose TrioVecEvent, a method that leverages multimodal embeddings to achieve accurate online local event detection. The effectiveness of TrioVecEvent is underpinned by its two-step detection scheme. First, it ensures a high coverage of the underlying local events by dividing the tweets in the query window into coherent geo-topic clusters. To generate quality geo-topic clusters, we capture short-text semantics by learning multimodal embeddings of the location, time, and text, and then perform online clustering with a novel Bayesian mixture model. Second, TrioVecEvent considers the geo-topic clusters as candidate events and extracts a set of features for classifying the candidates. Leveraging the multimodal embeddings as background knowledge, we introduce discriminative features that can well characterize local events, which enables pinpointing true local events from the candidate pool with a small amount of training data. We have used crowdsourcing to evaluate TrioVecEvent, and found that it improves the performance of the state-of-the-art method by a large margin. In this paper, we model multi-agent events in terms of a temporally varying sequence of sub-events, and propose a novel approach for learning, detecting and representing events in videos. The proposed approach has three main steps. First, in order to learn the event structure from training videos, we automatically encode the sub-event dependency graph, which is the learnt event model that depicts the conditional dependency between sub-events. Second, we pose the problem of event detection in novel videos as clustering the maximally correlated sub-events using normalized cuts. The principal assumption made in this work is that the events are composed of a highly correlated chain of sub-events that have high weights (association) within the cluster and relatively low weights (disassociation) between the clusters. The event detection does not require prior knowledge of the number of agents involved in an event and does not make any assumptions about the length of an event. Third, we recognize the fact that any abstract event model should extend to representations related to human understanding of events. Therefore, we propose an extension of CASE representation of natural languages that allows a plausible means of interface between users and the computer. We show results of learning, detection, and representation of events for videos in the meeting, surveillance, and railroad monitoring domains.