We propose a general formulation for addressing reinforcement learning (RL) problems in settings with observational data. That is, we consider the problem of learning good policies solely from historical data in which unobserved factors (confounders) affect both observed actions and rewards. Our formulation allows us to extend a representative RL algorithm, the Actor-Critic method, to its deconfounding variant, with the methodology for this extension being easily applied to other RL algorithms. In addition to this, we develop a new benchmark for evaluating deconfounding RL algorithms by modifying the OpenAI Gym environments and the MNIST dataset. Using this benchmark, we demonstrate that the proposed algorithms are superior to traditional RL methods in confounded environments with observational data. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that confounders are taken into consideration for addressing full RL problems with observational data. Code is available at this https URL.
@cite_11 attempted to learn individual-level causal effects from observational data in the non-temporal setting. They also used a variational auto-encoder to estimate the unknown confounder given a causal graph. @cite_10 developed predictive models based on electronic medical records without using causal inference. @cite_8 proposed a nonparametric Bayesian method to analyze clinical temporal data. @cite_12 represented the treatment response curves using linear time-invariant dynamical systems. This provides a flexible approach to modeling response over time. Although the latter two works model sequential data, they both do not consider RL or causal inference.
@cite_8 @cite_10 @cite_12 @cite_11
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Predicated on the increasing abundance of electronic health records, we investigate the problem of inferring individualized treatment effects using observational data. Stemming from the potential outcomes model, we propose a novel multi-task learning framework in which factual and counterfactual outcomes are modeled as the outputs of a function in a vector-valued reproducing kernel Hilbert space (vvRKHS). We develop a nonparametric Bayesian method for learning the treatment effects using a multi-task Gaussian process (GP) with a linear coregionalization kernel as a prior over the vvRKHS. The Bayesian approach allows us to compute individualized measures of confidence in our estimates via pointwise credible intervals, which are crucial for realizing the full potential of precision medicine. The impact of selection bias is alleviated via a risk-based empirical Bayes method for adapting the multi-task GP prior, which jointly minimizes the empirical error in factual outcomes and the uncertainty in (unobserved) counterfactual outcomes. We conduct experiments on observational datasets for an interventional social program applied to premature infants, and a left ventricular assist device applied to cardiac patients wait-listed for a heart transplant. In both experiments, we show that our method significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art. Causal inference from observational data is an ambitious but highly relevant task, with diverse applications ranging from natural to social sciences. Within the scope of nonparametric time series, causal inference defined through interventions is largely unexplored, although time order simplifies the problem substantially. A marginal integration scheme is considered for inferring causal effects from observational time series data, MINT-T (marginal integration in time series), which is an adaptation for time series of a previously proposed method for the case of independent data. This approach for stationary stochastic processes is fully nonparametric and, assuming no instantaneous effects consistently recovers the total causal effect of a single intervention with optimal one-dimensional nonparametric convergence rate n−2 5 assuming regularity conditions and twice differentiability of a certain corresponding regression function. Therefore, MINT-T remains largely unaffected by the curse of dimensionality as long as smoothness conditions hold in higher dimensions and it is feasible for a large class of stationary time series, including nonlinear and multivariate processes. For the case with instantaneous effects, we provide a procedure which guards against false positive causal statements. Objective Build probabilistic topic model representations of hospital admissions processes and compare the ability of such models to predict clinical order patterns as compared to preconstructed order sets. @PARASPLIT Materials and Methods The authors evaluated the first 24 hours of structured electronic health record data for > 10 K inpatients. Drawing an analogy between structured items (e.g., clinical orders) to words in a text document, the authors performed latent Dirichlet allocation probabilistic topic modeling. These topic models use initial clinical information to predict clinical orders for a separate validation set of > 4 K patients. The authors evaluated these topic model-based predictions vs existing human-authored order sets by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, precision, and recall for subsequent clinical orders. @PARASPLIT Results Existing order sets predict clinical orders used within 24 hours with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.81, precision 16 , and recall 35 . This can be improved to 0.90, 24 , and 47 ( P < 10−20) by using probabilistic topic models to summarize clinical data into up to 32 topics. Many of these latent topics yield natural clinical interpretations (e.g., “critical care,” “pneumonia,” “neurologic evaluation”). @PARASPLIT Discussion Existing order sets tend to provide nonspecific, process-oriented aid, with usability limitations impairing more precise, patient-focused support. Algorithmic summarization has the potential to breach this usability barrier by automatically inferring patient context, but with potential tradeoffs in interpretability. @PARASPLIT Conclusion Probabilistic topic modeling provides an automated approach to detect thematic trends in patient care and generate decision support content. A potential use case finds related clinical orders for decision support. Learning individual-level causal effects from observational data, such as inferring the most effective medication for a specific patient, is a problem of growing importance for policy makers. The most important aspect of inferring causal effects from observational data is the handling of confounders, factors that affect both an intervention and its outcome. A carefully designed observational study attempts to measure all important confounders. However, even if one does not have direct access to all confounders, there may exist noisy and uncertain measurement of proxies for confounders. We build on recent advances in latent variable modeling to simultaneously estimate the unknown latent space summarizing the confounders and the causal effect. Our method is based on Variational Autoencoders (VAE) which follow the causal structure of inference with proxies. We show our method is significantly more robust than existing methods, and matches the state-of-the-art on previous benchmarks focused on individual treatment effects.