We present an analysis of a person-to-person recommendation network, consisting of 4 million people who made 16 million recommendations on half a million products. We observe the propagation of recommendations and the cascade sizes, which we explain by a simple stochastic model. We analyze how user behavior varies within user communities defined by a recommendation network. Product purchases follow a ‘long tail’ where a significant share of purchases belongs to rarely sold items. We establish how the recommendation network grows over time and how effective it is from the viewpoint of the sender and receiver of the recommendations. While on average recommendations are not very effective at inducing purchases and do not spread very far, we present a model that successfully identifies communities, product, and pricing categories for which viral marketing seems to be very effective.
Cascade model @cite_29 where whenever a neighbor @math of node @math adopts, then node @math also adopts with probability @math . In other words, every time a neighbor of @math purchases a product, there is a chance that @math will decide to purchase as well.
@cite_29
2950143436 2591036807 1654194294 2011047110
Information spreads across social and technological networks, but often the network structures are hidden from us and we only observe the traces left by the diffusion processes, called cascades. Can we recover the hidden network structures from these observed cascades? What kind of cascades and how many cascades do we need? Are there some network structures which are more difficult than others to recover? Can we design efficient inference algorithms with provable guarantees? Despite the increasing availability of cascade data and methods for inferring networks from these data, a thorough theoretical understanding of the above questions remains largely unexplored in the literature. In this paper, we investigate the network structure inference problem for a general family of continuous-time diffusion models using an @math -regularized likelihood maximization framework. We show that, as long as the cascade sampling process satisfies a natural incoherence condition, our framework can recover the correct network structure with high probability if we observe @math cascades, where @math is the maximum number of parents of a node and @math is the total number of nodes. Moreover, we develop a simple and efficient soft-thresholding inference algorithm, which we use to illustrate the consequences of our theoretical results, and show that our framework outperforms other alternatives in practice. We consider distributed plurality consensus in a complete graph of size @math with @math initial opinions. We design an efficient and simple protocol in the asynchronous communication model that ensures that all nodes eventually agree on the initially most frequent opinion. In this model, each node is equipped with a random Poisson clock with parameter @math . Whenever a node's clock ticks, it samples some neighbors, uniformly at random and with replacement, and adjusts its opinion according to the sample. A prominent example is the so-called two-choices algorithm in the synchronous model, where in each round, every node chooses two neighbors uniformly at random, and if the two sampled opinions coincide, then that opinion is adopted. This protocol is very efficient and well-studied when @math . If @math for some small @math , we show that it converges to the initial plurality opinion within @math rounds, w.h.p., as long as the initial difference between the largest and second largest opinion is @math . On the other side, we show that there are cases in which @math rounds are needed, w.h.p. One can beat this lower bound in the synchronous model by combining the two-choices protocol with randomized broadcasting. Our main contribution is a non-trivial adaptation of this approach to the asynchronous model. If the support of the most frequent opinion is at least @math times that of the second-most frequent one and @math , then our protocol achieves the best possible run time of @math , w.h.p. We relax full synchronicity by allowing @math nodes to be poorly synchronized, and the well synchronized nodes are only required to be within a certain time difference from one another. We enforce this synchronicity by introducing a novel gadget into the protocol. We study the problem of maximizing the expected spread of an innovation or behavior within a social network, in the presence of “word-of-mouth” referral. Our work builds on the observation that individuals’ decisions to purchase a product or adopt an innovation are strongly influenced by recommendations from their friends and acquaintances. Understanding and leveraging this influence may thus lead to a much larger spread of the innovation than the traditional view of marketing to individuals in isolation. In this paper, we define a natural and general model of influence propagation that we term the decreasing cascade model, generalizing models used in the sociology and economics communities. In this model, as in related ones, a behavior spreads in a cascading fashion according to a probabilistic rule, beginning with a set of initially “active” nodes. We study the target set selection problem: we wish to choose a set of individuals to target for initial activation, such that the cascade beginning with this active set is as large as possible in expectation. We show that in the decreasing cascade model, a natural greedy algorithm is a 1-1 e-e approximation for selecting a target set of size k. We study simple interacting particle systems on heterogeneous networks, including the voter model and the invasion process. These are both two-state models in which in an update event an individual changes state to agree with a neighbor. For the voter model, an individual imports'' its state from a randomly chosen neighbor. Here the average time @math to reach consensus for a network of @math nodes with an uncorrelated degree distribution scales as @math , where @math is the @math moment of the degree distribution. Quick consensus thus arises on networks with broad degree distributions. We also identify the conservation law that characterizes the route by which consensus is reached. Parallel results are derived for the invasion process, in which the state of an agent is exported'' to a random neighbor. We further generalize to biased dynamics in which one state is favored. The probability for a single fitter mutant located at a node of degree @math to overspread the population the fixation probability is proportional to @math for the voter model and to @math for the invasion process.