In this paper, we study the accuracy of values aggregated over classes predicted by a classification algorithm. The problem is that the resulting aggregates (e.g., sums of a variable) are known to be biased. The bias can be large even for highly accurate classification algorithms, in particular when dealing with class-imbalanced data. To correct this bias, the algorithm's classification error rates have to be estimated. In this estimation, two issues arise when applying existing bias correction methods. First, inaccuracies in estimating classification error rates have to be taken into account. Second, impermissible estimates, such as a negative estimate for a positive value, have to be dismissed. We show that both issues are relevant in applications where the true labels are known only for a small set of data points. We propose a novel bias correction method using Bayesian inference. The novelty of our method is that it imposes constraints on the model parameters. We show that our method solves the problem of biased classification-based aggregates as well as the two issues above, in the general setting of multi-class classification. In the empirical evaluation, using a binary classifier on a real-world dataset of company tax returns, we show that our method outperforms existing methods in terms of mean squared error.
The first field is , which studies the distribution of health and disease. There, it is well-known how a low base rate can lead to high bias even if sensitivity ( @math ) and specificity ( @math ) are high @cite_13 (cf. The Base Rate Example). As mostly binary classifiers are considered (sick or not), bias correction is straightforward [pp. 87-89] lash_applying_2009 . In addition, a standard Bayesian method of bias correction, predominantly using a uniform or Jeffreys prior without parameter constraints, is applied in epidemiology @cite_3 @cite_5 . We will generalize these Bayesian methods to the entire family of conjugate prior distributions and to the setting of multi-class classification. Moreover, we will improve empirical performance by imposing well-chosen parameter constraints.
@cite_5 @cite_13 @cite_3
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Three Bayesian related approaches, namely, variational Bayesian (VB), minimum message length (MML) and Bayesian Ying-Yang (BYY) harmony learning, have been applied to automatically determining an appropriate number of components during learning Gaussian mixture model (GMM). This paper aims to provide a comparative investigation on these approaches with not only a Jeffreys prior but also a conjugate Dirichlet-Normal-Wishart (DNW) prior on GMM. In addition to adopting the existing algorithms either directly or with some modifications, the algorithm for VB with Jeffreys prior and the algorithm for BYY with DNW prior are developed in this paper to fill the missing gap. The performances of automatic model selection are evaluated through extensive experiments, with several empirical findings: 1) Considering priors merely on the mixing weights, each of three approaches makes biased mistakes, while considering priors on all the parameters of GMM makes each approach reduce its bias and also improve its performance. 2) As Jeffreys prior is replaced by the DNW prior, all the three approaches improve their performances. Moreover, Jeffreys prior makes MML slightly better than VB, while the DNW prior makes VB better than MML. 3) As the hyperparameters of DNW prior are further optimized by each of its own learning principle, BYY improves its performances while VB and MML deteriorate their performances when there are too many free hyper-parameters. Actually, VB and MML lack a good guide for optimizing the hyper-parameters of DNW prior. 4) BYY considerably outperforms both VB and MML for any type of priors and whether hyper-parameters are optimized. Being different from VB and MML that rely on appropriate priors to perform model selection, BYY does not highly depend on the type of priors. It has model selection ability even without priors and performs already very well with Jeffreys prior, and incrementally improves as Jeffreys prior is replaced by the DNW prior. Finally, all algorithms are applied on the Berkeley segmentation database of real world images. Again, BYY considerably outperforms both VB and MML, especially in detecting the objects of interest from a confusing background. In this paper, we investigate how to modify the naive Bayes classifier in order to perform classification that is restricted to be independent with respect to a given sensitive attribute. Such independency restrictions occur naturally when the decision process leading to the labels in the data-set was biased; e.g., due to gender or racial discrimination. This setting is motivated by many cases in which there exist laws that disallow a decision that is partly based on discrimination. Naive application of machine learning techniques would result in huge fines for companies. We present three approaches for making the naive Bayes classifier discrimination-free: (i) modifying the probability of the decision being positive, (ii) training one model for every sensitive attribute value and balancing them, and (iii) adding a latent variable to the Bayesian model that represents the unbiased label and optimizing the model parameters for likelihood using expectation maximization. We present experiments for the three approaches on both artificial and real-life data. This paper studies two-class (or binary) classification of elements X in R k that allows for a reject option. Based on n independent copies of the pair of random variables (X,Y ) with X 2 R k and Y 2 0,1 , we consider classifiers f(X) that render three possible outputs: 0, 1 and R. The option R expresses doubt and is to be used for few observations that are hard to classify in an automatic way. Chow (1970) derived the optimal rule minimizing the risk P f(X) 6 Y, f(X) 6 R + dP f(X) = R . This risk function subsumes that the cost of making a wrong decision equals 1 and that of utilizing the reject option is d. We show that the classification problem hinges on the behavior of the regression function (x) = E(Y |X = x) near d and 1 d. (Here d 2 [0,1 2] as the other cases turn out to be trivial.) Classification rules can be categorized into plug-in estimators and empirical risk minimizers. Both types are considered here and we prove that the rates of convergence of the risk of any estimate depends on P | (X) d| + P | (X) (1 d)| and on the quality of the estimate for or an appropriate measure of the size of the class of classifiers, in case of plug-in rules and empirical risk minimizers, respectively. We extend the mathematical framework even further by dierentiating between costs associated with the two possible errors: predicting f(X) = 0 whilst Y = 1 and predicting f(X) = 1 whilst Y = 0. Such situations are common in, for instance, medical studies where misclassifying a sick patient as healthy is worse than the opposite. Summary In this paper we propose, survey and compare some classes of probability densities that may be used to represent partial prior information, to model either prior ignorance or Bayesian sensitivity analysis. We distinguish two types of models appropriate for two different situations: near ignorance models which are suitable in problems where there is little prior information, and neighbourhood models, which can be used to 'robustify' a strict Bayesian analysis in problems where there is substantial prior information about location. We argue that, especially for the first situation, a reasonable class of prior densities is not the same as a class of reasonable prior densities. We discuss various desiderata for a 'reasonable' class, including coherence and sensible dependence of inferences on sample size. The translation invariant models studied here are classes of conjugate priors, classes of double exponential densities and a neighbourhood of the uniform prior. Of the neighbourhood models we examine examples of E-contamination neighbourhoods (previously studied by Huber, Berger and Berliner) and intervals of measures (DeRobertis and Hartigan). We illustrate the models in the simple problem of constructing credible intervals for an unknown normal mean. Of the models studied in detail, a translation-invariant class of double exponential priors is favoured for modelling little prior information, and a type of interval of measures seems most suitable for robust Bayesian analysis.