We consider the problem of generating randomized control sequences for complex networked systems typically actuated by human agents. Our approach leverages a concept known as control improvisation, which is based on a combination of data-driven learning and controller synthesis from formal specifications. We learn from existing data a generative model (for instance, an explicit-duration hidden Markov model, or EDHMM) and then supervise this model in order to guarantee that the generated sequences satisfy some desirable specifications given in Probabilistic Computation Tree Logic (PCTL). We present an implementation of our approach and apply it to the problem of mimicking the use of lighting appliances in a residential unit, with potential applications to home security and resource management. We present experimental results showing that our approach produces realistic control sequences, similar to recorded data based on human actuation, while satisfying suitable formal requirements.
Appliance modeling in residential settings has several proposed benefits, including reduced power consumption, automated actuation of smart appliances subject to energy pricing, microgrid load balancing, and home security @cite_4 . Additionally, personalized advisory tools have gained popularity to provide adaptive demand-response prediction @cite_5 @cite_17 . Bayesian modeling techniques for home appliance load modeling has been an emerging topic of interest @cite_16 , and EDHMM-based models have previously been proposed for load disaggregation @cite_10 . Markov modeling of uncertainties in demand and energy pricing has been studied in @cite_6 , which presents a reinforcement learning based approach to optimal load scheduling.
@cite_4 @cite_6 @cite_5 @cite_16 @cite_10 @cite_17
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With recent developments in the infrastructure of smart meters and smart grid, more electric power data is available and allows real-time easy data access. Modeling individual home appliance loads is important for tasks such as non-intrusive load disaggregation, load forecasting, and demand response support. Previous methods usually require sub-metering individual appliances in a home separately to determine the appliance models, which may not be practical, since we may only be able to observe aggregated real power signals for the entire-home through smart meters deployed in the field. In this paper, we propose a model, named Explicit-Duration Hidden Markov Model with differential observations (EDHMM-diff), for detecting and estimating individual home appliance loads from aggregated power signals collected by ordinary smart meters. Experiments on synthetic data and real data demonstrate that the EDHMM-diff model and the specialized forward-backward algorithm can effectively model major home appliance loads. Correctly anticipating load characteristics of low voltage level is getting increased interest by distribution network operators. Energy disaggregation could be one of the potential approaches to exploit the massive amount of smart meter data to fulfill the task. Proper individual home appliance modeling is critical to the performance of NILM. In this paper, a hierarchical hidden Markov model (HHMM) framework to model home appliances is proposed. This model aims to provide better representation for those appliances that have multiple built-in modes with distinct power consumption profiles, such as washing machines and dishwashers. The dynamic Bayesian network representation of such an appliance model is built. A forward–backward algorithm, which is based on the framework of expectation maximization, is formalized for the HHMM fitting process. Tests on publically available data show that the HHMM and proposed algorithm can effectively handle the modeling of appliances with multiple functional modes, as well as better representing a general type of appliances. A disaggregation test also demonstrates that the fitted HHMM can be easily applied to a general inference solver to outperform conventional hidden Markov model in the estimation of energy disaggregation. The widespread adoption of demand response enabled appliances and thermostats can result in significant reduction to peak electrical demand and provide potential grid stabilization benefits. GE has developed a line of appliances that will have the capability of offering several levels of demand reduction actions based on information from the utility grid, often in the form of price. However due to a number of factors, including the number of demand response enabled appliances available at any given time, the reduction of diversity factor due to the synchronizing control signal, and the percentage of consumers who may override the utility signal, it can be difficult to predict the aggregate response of a large number of residences. The effects of these behaviors can be modeled and simulated in open-source software, GridLAB-D, including evaluation of appliance controls, improvement to current algorithms, and development of aggregate control methodologies. This report is the first in a series of three reports describing the potential of GE's demand response enabled appliances to provide benefits to the utility grid. The first report will describe the modeling methodology used to represent the GE appliances in the GridLAB-D simulation environment and the estimated potential for peak demand reduction at various deployment levels. The second and third reports will explore the potential of aggregated group actions to positively impact grid stability, including frequency and voltage regulation and spinning reserves, and the impacts on distribution feeder voltage regulation, including mitigation of fluctuations caused by high penetration of photovoltaic distributed generation and the effects on volt-var control schemes. Realistic time-resolved data on occupant behaviour, presence and energy use are important inputs to various types of simulations, including performance of small-scale energy systems and buildings' indoor climate, use of lighting and energy demand. This paper presents a modelling framework for stochastic generation of high-resolution series of such data. The model generates both synthetic activity sequences of individual household members, including occupancy states, and domestic electricity demand based on these patterns. The activity-generating model, based on non-homogeneous Markov chains that are tuned to an extensive empirical time-use data set, creates a realistic spread of activities over time, down to a 1-min resolution. A detailed validation against measurements shows that modelled power demand data for individual households as well as aggregate demand for an arbitrary number of households are highly realistic in terms of end-use composition, annual and diurnal variations, diversity between households, short time-scale fluctuations and load coincidence. An important aim with the model development has been to maintain a sound balance between complexity and output quality. Although the model yields a high-quality output, the proposed model structure is uncomplicated in comparison to other available domestic load models.