We introduce random directed acyclic graph and use it to model the information diffusion network. Subsequently, we analyze the cascade generation model (CGM) introduced by [19]. Until now only empirical studies of this model were done. In this paper, we present the first theoretical proof that the sizes of cascades generated by the CGM follow the power-law distribution, which is consistent with multiple empirical analysis of the large social networks. We compared the assumptions of our model with the Twitter social network and tested the goodness of approximation.
One of the greatest issue in analyzing the cascade size distribution is the lack of a good theoretical background for this process. Recently, researchers @cite_16 has presented new models, designed to fit real distribution of cascade sizes. Moreover, goodness of fit test against CGM model has been conducted. It turns out, that CGM works well for small cascades, however it is unreliable for the large ones. The introduction of time dependent parameters significantly improves predictions for the large cascades @cite_16 .
@cite_16
1988927463 2135502357 2101217650 1996263819
The probability distribution of the cascade generators in a random multiplicative cascade represents a hidden parameter which is reflected in the fine scale limiting behavior of the scaling exponents (sample moments) of a single sample cascade realization as a.s. constants. We identify a large class of cascade generators uniquely determined by these scaling exponents. For this class we provide both asymptotic consistency and confidence intervals for two different estimators of the cumulant generating function (log Laplace transform) of the cascade generator distribution. These results are derived from investigation of the convergence properties of the fine scale sample moments of a single cascade realization. Cascade detectors have been shown to operate extremely rapidly, with high accuracy, and have important applications such as face detection. Driven by this success, cascade learning has been an area of active research in recent years. Nevertheless, there are still challenging technical problems during the training process of cascade detectors. In particular, determining the optimal target detection rate for each stage of the cascade remains an unsolved issue. In this paper, we propose the multiple instance pruning (MIP) algorithm for soft cascades. This algorithm computes a set of thresholds which aggressively terminate computation with no reduction in detection rate or increase in false positive rate on the training dataset. The algorithm is based on two key insights: i) examples that are destined to be rejected by the complete classifier can be safely pruned early; ii) face detection is a multiple instance learning problem. The MIP process is fully automatic and requires no assumptions of probability distributions, statistical independence, or ad hoc intermediate rejection targets. Experimental results on the MIT+CMU dataset demonstrate significant performance advantages. The problem of learning classifier cascades is considered. A new cascade boosting algorithm, fast cascade boosting (FCBoost), is proposed. FCBoost is shown to have a number of interesting properties, namely that it 1) minimizes a Lagrangian risk that jointly accounts for classification accuracy and speed, 2) generalizes adaboost, 3) can be made cost-sensitive to support the design of high detection rate cascades, and 4) is compatible with many predictor structures suitable for sequential decision making. It is shown that a rich family of such structures can be derived recursively from cascade predictors of two stages, denoted cascade generators. Generators are then proposed for two new cascade families, last-stage and multiplicative cascades, that generalize the two most popular cascade architectures in the literature. The concept of neutral predictors is finally introduced, enabling FCBoost to automatically determine the cascade configuration, i.e., number of stages and number of weak learners per stage, for the learned cascades. Experiments on face and pedestrian detection show that the resulting cascades outperform current state-of-the-art methods in both detection accuracy and speed. On many social networking web sites such as Facebook and Twitter, resharing or reposting functionality allows users to share others' content with their own friends or followers. As content is reshared from user to user, large cascades of reshares can form. While a growing body of research has focused on analyzing and characterizing such cascades, a recent, parallel line of work has argued that the future trajectory of a cascade may be inherently unpredictable. In this work, we develop a framework for addressing cascade prediction problems. On a large sample of photo reshare cascades on Facebook, we find strong performance in predicting whether a cascade will continue to grow in the future. We find that the relative growth of a cascade becomes more predictable as we observe more of its reshares, that temporal and structural features are key predictors of cascade size, and that initially, breadth, rather than depth in a cascade is a better indicator of larger cascades. This prediction performance is robust in the sense that multiple distinct classes of features all achieve similar performance. We also discover that temporal features are predictive of a cascade's eventual shape. Observing independent cascades of the same content, we find that while these cascades differ greatly in size, we are still able to predict which ends up the largest.