For autonomous agents to successfully operate in the real world, anticipation of future events and states of their environment is a key competence. This problem has been formalized as a sequence extrapolation problem, where a number of observations are used to predict the sequence into the future. Real-world scenarios demand a model of uncertainty of such predictions, as predictions become increasingly uncertain -- in particular on long time horizons. While impressive results have been shown on point estimates, scenarios that induce multi-modal distributions over future sequences remain challenging. Our work addresses these challenges in a Gaussian Latent Variable model for sequence prediction. Our core contribution is a "Best of Many" sample objective that leads to more accurate and more diverse predictions that better capture the true variations in real-world sequence data. Beyond our analysis of improved model fit, our models also empirically outperform prior work on three diverse tasks ranging from traffic scenes to weather data.
Structured Output Prediction. Stochastic feed-forward neural networks (SFNN) @cite_20 model multi-modal conditional distributions through binary stochastic hidden variables. During training multiple samples are drawn and weighted according to importance-weights. However, due to the latent variables being binary SFNNs are hard to train on large datasets. There has been several efforts to make training more efficient for binary latent variables @cite_1 @cite_21 @cite_5 @cite_3 . However, not all tasks can be efficiently modelled with binary hidden variables. In @cite_12 , Gaussian hidden variables are considered where the re-parameterization trick can be used for learning on large datasets using stochastic optimization. Inspired by this technique we model Gaussian hidden variables for structured sequence prediction tasks.
@cite_21 @cite_1 @cite_3 @cite_5 @cite_12 @cite_20
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It has been believed that stochastic feedforward neural networks (SFNNs) have several advantages beyond deterministic deep neural networks (DNNs): they have more expressive power allowing multi-modal mappings and regularize better due to their stochastic nature. However, training large-scale SFNN is notoriously harder. In this paper, we aim at developing efficient training methods for SFNN, in particular using known architectures and pre-trained parameters of DNN. To this end, we propose a new intermediate stochastic model, called Simplified-SFNN, which can be built upon any baseline DNNand approximates certain SFNN by simplifying its upper latent units above stochastic ones. The main novelty of our approach is in establishing the connection between three models, i.e., DNN->Simplified-SFNN->SFNN, which naturally leads to an efficient training procedure of the stochastic models utilizing pre-trained parameters of DNN. Using several popular DNNs, we show how they can be effectively transferred to the corresponding stochastic models for both multi-modal and classification tasks on MNIST, TFD, CASIA, CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100 and SVHN datasets. In particular, we train a stochastic model of 28 layers and 36 million parameters, where training such a large-scale stochastic network is significantly challenging without using Simplified-SFNN Stochastic binary hidden units in a multi-layer perceptron (MLP) network give at least three potential benefits when compared to deterministic MLP networks. (1) They allow to learn one-to-many type of mappings. (2) They can be used in structured prediction problems, where modeling the internal structure of the output is important. (3) Stochasticity has been shown to be an excellent regularizer, which makes generalization performance potentially better in general. However, training stochastic networks is considerably more difficult. We study training using M samples of hidden activations per input. We show that the case M=1 leads to a fundamentally different behavior where the network tries to avoid stochasticity. We propose two new estimators for the training gradient and propose benchmark tests for comparing training algorithms. Our experiments confirm that training stochastic networks is difficult and show that the proposed two estimators perform favorably among all the five known estimators. Multilayer perceptrons (MLPs) or neural networks are popular models used for nonlinear regression and classification tasks. As regressors, MLPs model the conditional distribution of the predictor variables Y given the input variables X. However, this predictive distribution is assumed to be unimodal (e.g. Gaussian). For tasks involving structured prediction, the conditional distribution should be multi-modal, resulting in one-to-many mappings. By using stochastic hidden variables rather than deterministic ones, Sigmoid Belief Nets (SBNs) can induce a rich multimodal distribution in the output space. However, previously proposed learning algorithms for SBNs are not efficient and unsuitable for modeling real-valued data. In this paper, we propose a stochastic feedforward network with hidden layers composed of both deterministic and stochastic variables. A new Generalized EM training procedure using importance sampling allows us to efficiently learn complicated conditional distributions. Our model achieves superior performance on synthetic and facial expressions datasets compared to conditional Restricted Boltzmann Machines and Mixture Density Networks. In addition, the latent features of our model improves classification and can learn to generate colorful textures of objects. Supervised deep learning has been successfully applied to many recognition problems. Although it can approximate a complex many-to-one function well when a large amount of training data is provided, it is still challenging to model complex structured output representations that effectively perform probabilistic inference and make diverse predictions. In this work, we develop a deep conditional generative model for structured output prediction using Gaussian latent variables. The model is trained efficiently in the framework of stochastic gradient variational Bayes, and allows for fast prediction using stochastic feed-forward inference. In addition, we provide novel strategies to build robust structured prediction algorithms, such as input noise-injection and multi-scale prediction objective at training. In experiments, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed algorithm in comparison to the deterministic deep neural network counterparts in generating diverse but realistic structured output predictions using stochastic inference. Furthermore, the proposed training methods are complimentary, which leads to strong pixel-level object segmentation and semantic labeling performance on Caltech-UCSD Birds 200 and the subset of Labeled Faces in the Wild dataset.