Estimating vaccination uptake is an integral part of ensuring public health. It was recently shown that vaccination uptake can be estimated automatically from web data, instead of slowly collected clinical records or population surveys. All prior work in this area assumes that features of vaccination uptake collected from the web are temporally regular. We present the first ever method to remove this assumption from vaccination uptake estimation: our method dynamically adapts to temporal fluctuations in time series web data used to estimate vaccination uptake. We show our method to outperform the state of the art compared to competitive baselines that use not only web data but also curated clinical data. This performance improvement is more pronounced for vaccines whose uptake has been irregular due to negative media attention (HPV-1 and HPV-2), problems in vaccine supply (DiTeKiPol), and targeted at children of 12 years old (whose vaccination is more irregular compared to younger children).
Vaccination programs are an efficient and cost effective method to improve public health. With sufficiently many people vaccinated the population gains herd immunity, meaning the disease cannot spread. Timely actions to avoid drops in vaccination coverage are therefore of great importance. Many countries have no registries of timely vaccination uptake information, but rely for example on yearly surveys. In such countries estimations of near real-time vaccination uptake based solely on web data are valuable. We extend prior work in this area @cite_2 , which showed that vaccination uptake can be estimated sufficiently accurately from web search data. Our extension consists of a new estimation method that adapts dynamically to temporal fluctuations in the signal (web search queries in our case) instead of assuming temporal stationarity as in @cite_2 . This contribution is novel within vaccination uptake estimation.
@cite_2
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Estimating vaccination uptake is an integral part of ensuring public health. It was recently shown that vaccination uptake can be estimated automatically from web data, instead of slowly collected clinical records or population surveys. All prior work in this area assumes that features of vaccination uptake collected from the web are temporally regular. We present the first ever method to remove this assumption from vaccination uptake estimation: our method dynamically adapts to temporal fluctuations in time series web data used to estimate vaccination uptake. We show our method to outperform the state of the art compared to competitive baselines that use not only web data but also curated clinical data. This performance improvement is more pronounced for vaccines whose uptake has been irregular due to negative media attention (HPV-1 and HPV-2), problems in vaccine supply (DiTeKiPol), and targeted at children of 12 years old (whose vaccination is more irregular compared to younger children). We present a method that uses ensemble learning to combine clinical and web-mined time-series data in order to predict future vaccination uptake. The clinical data is official vaccination registries, and the web data is query frequencies collected from Google Trends. Experiments with official vaccine records show that our method predicts vaccination uptake effectively (4.7 Root Mean Squared Error). Whereas performance is best when combining clinical and web data, using solely web data yields comparative performance. To our knowledge, this is the first study to predict vaccination uptake using web data (with and without clinical data). We present a method that uses ensemble learning to combine clinical and web-mined time-series data in order to predict future vaccination uptake. The clinical data is official vaccination registries, and the web data is query frequencies collected from Google Trends. Experiments with official vaccine records show that our method predicts vaccination uptake effectively (4.7 Root Mean Squared Error). Whereas performance is best when combining clinical and web data, using solely web data yields comparative performance. To our knowledge, this is the first study to predict vaccination uptake using web data (with and without clinical data). Vaccination campaigns are one of the most important and successful public health programs ever undertaken. People who want to learn about vaccines in order to make an informed decision on whether to vaccinate are faced with a wealth of information on the Internet, both for and against vaccinations. In this paper we develop an automated way to score Internet search queries and web pages as to the likelihood that a person making these queries or reading those pages would decide to vaccinate. We apply this method to data from a major Internet search engine, while people seek information about the Measles, Mumps and Rubella (MMR) vaccine. We show that our method is accurate, and use it to learn about the information acquisition process of people. Our results show that people who are pro-vaccination as well as people who are anti-vaccination seek similar information, but browsing this information has differing effect on their future browsing. These findings demonstrate the need for health authorities to tailor their information according to the current stance of users.