In Crowdfunding platforms, people turn their prototype ideas into real products by raising money from the crowd, or invest in someone else's projects. In reward-based crowdfunding platforms such as Kickstarter and Indiegogo, selecting accurate reward delivery duration becomes crucial for creators, backers, and platform providers to keep the trust between the creators and the backers, and the trust between the platform providers and users. According to Kickstarter, 35 backers did not receive rewards on time. Unfortunately, little is known about on-time and late reward delivery projects, and there is no prior work to estimate reward delivery duration. To fill the gap, in this paper, we (i) extract novel features that reveal latent difficulty levels of project rewards; (ii) build predictive models to identify whether a creator will deliver all rewards in a project on time or not; and (iii) build a regression model to estimate accurate reward delivery duration (i.e., how long it will take to produce and deliver all the rewards). Experimental results show that our models achieve good performance -- 82.5 accuracy, 78.1 RMSE, and 0.108 NRMSE at the first 5 of the longest reward delivery duration.
While most of the previous research works focused on , we focus on the next phase -- . Our work is also different from @cite_28 . In particular, we analyze characteristics of on-time and late delivery projects, and build a predictive model to predict whether rewards in a project will be delivered on-time or not. In addition, we build a regression model to recommend accurate delivery duration to creators.
@cite_28
1988545169 2163352112 2786674049 2542071751
In this work, we discover the daily location-driven routines that are contained in a massive real-life human dataset collected by mobile phones. Our goal is the discovery and analysis of human routines that characterize both individual and group behaviors in terms of location patterns. We develop an unsupervised methodology based on two differing probabilistic topic models and apply them to the daily life of 97 mobile phone users over a 16-month period to achieve these goals. Topic models are probabilistic generative models for documents that identify the latent structure that underlies a set of words. Routines dominating the entire group's activities, identified with a methodology based on the Latent Dirichlet Allocation topic model, include “going to work late”, “going home early”, “working nonstop” and “having no reception (phone off)” at different times over varying time-intervals. We also detect routines which are characteristic of users, with a methodology based on the Author-Topic model. With the routines discovered, and the two methods of characterizing days and users, we can then perform various tasks. We use the routines discovered to determine behavioral patterns of users and groups of users. For example, we can find individuals that display specific daily routines, such as “going to work early” or “turning off the mobile (or having no reception) in the evenings”. We are also able to characterize daily patterns by determining the topic structure of days in addition to determining whether certain routines occur dominantly on weekends or weekdays. Furthermore, the routines discovered can be used to rank users or find subgroups of users who display certain routines. We can also characterize users based on their entropy. We compare our method to one based on clustering using K-means. Finally, we analyze an individual's routines over time to determine regions with high variations, which may correspond to specific events. We consider the courier delivery problem (CDP), a variant of the vehicle routing problem with time windows (VRPTW) in which customers appear probabilistically and their service times are uncertain. We use scenario-based stochastic programming with recourse to model the uncertainty in customers and robust optimization for the uncertainty in service times. Our proposed model generates a master plan and daily schedules by maximizing the coverage of customers and the similarity of routes in each scenario, while minimizing the total time spent by the couriers and the total earliness and lateness penalty. To solve large-scale problem instances, we develop an insertion-based solution heuristic, called master and daily scheduler (MADS), and a tabu search improvement procedure. The computational results show that our heuristic improves the similarity of routes and the lateness penalty at the expense of increased total time spent when compared to a solution of independently scheduling each day. Our experimental results also show improvements over current industry practice on two real-world data sets. In this paper, we present the results of long-term research conducted in order to study the contribution made by software models based on the Unified Modeling Language (UML) to the comprehensibility of Java source-code deprived of comments. We have conducted 12 controlled experiments in different experimental contexts and on different sites with participants with different levels of expertise (i.e., Bachelor’s, Master’s, and PhD students and software practitioners from Italy and Spain). A total of 333 observations were obtained from these experiments. The UML models in our experiments were those produced in the analysis and design phases. The models produced in the analysis phase were created with the objective of abstracting the environment in which the software will work (i.e., the problem domain), while those produced in the design phase were created with the goal of abstracting implementation aspects of the software (i.e., the solution application domain). Source-code comprehensibility was assessed with regard to correctness of understanding, time taken to accomplish the comprehension tasks, and efficiency as regards accomplishing those tasks. In order to study the global effect of UML models on source-code comprehensibility, we aggregated results from the individual experiments using a meta-analysis. We made every effort to account for the heterogeneity of our experiments when aggregating the results obtained from them. The overall results suggest that the use of UML models affects the comprehensibility of source-code, when it is deprived of comments. Indeed, models produced in the analysis phase might reduce source-code comprehensibility, while increasing the time taken to complete comprehension tasks. That is, browsing source code and this kind of models together negatively impacts on the time taken to complete comprehension tasks without having a positive effect on the comprehensibility of source code. One plausible justification for this is that the UML models produced in the analysis phase focus on the problem domain. That is, models produced in the analysis phase say nothing about source code and there should be no expectation that they would, in any way, be beneficial to comprehensibility. On the other hand, UML models produced in the design phase improve source-code comprehensibility. One possible justification for this result is that models produced in the design phase are more focused on implementation details. Therefore, although the participants had more material to read and browse, this additional effort was paid back in the form of an improved comprehension of source code. Motivated by online recommendation and advertising systems, we consider a causal model for stochastic contextual bandits with a latent low-dimensional confounder. In our model, there are @math observed contexts and @math arms of the bandit. The observed context influences the reward obtained through a latent confounder variable with cardinality @math ( @math ). The arm choice and the latent confounder causally determines the reward while the observed context is correlated with the confounder. Under this model, the @math mean reward matrix @math (for each context in @math and each arm in @math ) factorizes into non-negative factors @math ( @math ) and @math ( @math ). This insight enables us to propose an @math -greedy NMF-Bandit algorithm that designs a sequence of interventions (selecting specific arms), that achieves a balance between learning this low-dimensional structure and selecting the best arm to minimize regret. Our algorithm achieves a regret of @math at time @math , as compared to @math for conventional contextual bandits, assuming a constant gap between the best arm and the rest for each context. These guarantees are obtained under mild sufficiency conditions on the factors that are weaker versions of the well-known Statistical RIP condition. We further propose a class of generative models that satisfy our sufficient conditions, and derive a lower bound of @math . These are the first regret guarantees for online matrix completion with bandit feedback, when the rank is greater than one. We further compare the performance of our algorithm with the state of the art, on synthetic and real world data-sets.