We present an analysis of a person-to-person recommendation network, consisting of 4 million people who made 16 million recommendations on half a million products. We observe the propagation of recommendations and the cascade sizes, which we explain by a simple stochastic model. We analyze how user behavior varies within user communities defined by a recommendation network. Product purchases follow a ‘long tail’ where a significant share of purchases belongs to rarely sold items. We establish how the recommendation network grows over time and how effective it is from the viewpoint of the sender and receiver of the recommendations. While on average recommendations are not very effective at inducing purchases and do not spread very far, we present a model that successfully identifies communities, product, and pricing categories for which viral marketing seems to be very effective.
Diffusion models that try to model the process of adoption of an idea or a product can generally be divided into two groups: Threshold model @cite_16 where each node in the network has a threshold @math , typically drawn from some probability distribution. We also assign connection weights @math on the edges of the network. A node adopts the behavior if a sum of the connection weights of its neighbors that already adopted the behavior (purchased a product in our case) is greater than the threshold: @math .
@cite_16
2170002160 2028055861 2398538542 1963343385
In this paper we consider a fundamental problem in the area of viral marketing, called T ARGET S ET S ELECTION problem. In a a viral marketing setting, social networks are modeled by graphs with potential customers of a new product as vertices and friend relationships as edges, where each vertex @math is assigned a threshold value @math . The thresholds represent the different latent tendencies of customers (vertices) to buy the new product when their friend (neighbors) do. Consider a repetitive process on social network @math where each vertex @math is associated with two states, active and inactive, which indicate whether @math is persuaded into buying the new product. Suppose we are given a target set @math . Initially, all vertices in @math are inactive. At time step 0, we choose all vertices in @math to become active. Then, at every time step @math , all vertices that were active in time step @math remain active, and we activate any vertex @math if at least @math of its neighbors were active at time step @math . The activation process terminates when no more vertices can get activated. We are interested in the following optimization problem, called T ARGET S ET S ELECTION : Finding a target set @math of smallest possible size that activates all vertices of @math . There is an important and well-studied threshold called strict majority threshold, where for every vertex @math in @math we have @math and @math is the degree of @math in @math . In this paper, we consider the T ARGET S ET S ELECTION problem under strict majority thresholds and focus on three popular regular network structures: cycle permutation graphs, generalized Petersen graphs and torus cordalis. Models of networked diffusion that are motivated by analogy with the spread of infectious disease have been applied to a wide range of social and economic adoption processes, including those related to new products, ideas, norms and behaviors. However, it is unknown how accurately these models account for the empirical structure of diffusion over networks. Here we describe the diffusion patterns arising from seven online domains, ranging from communications platforms to networked games to microblogging services, each involving distinct types of content and modes of sharing. We find strikingly similar patterns across all domains. In particular, the vast majority of cascades are small, and are described by a handful of simple tree structures that terminate within one degree of an initial adopting "seed." In addition we find that structures other than these account for only a tiny fraction of total adoptions; that is, adoptions resulting from chains of referrals are extremely rare. Finally, even for the largest cascades that we observe, we find that the bulk of adoptions often takes place within one degree of a few dominant individuals. Together, these observations suggest new directions for modeling of online adoption processes. The spread of epidemics and malware is commonly modeled by diffusion processes on networks. Protective interventions such as vaccinations or installing anti-virus software are used to contain their spread. Typically, each node in the network has to decide its own strategy of securing itself, and its benefit depends on which other nodes are secure, making this a natural game-theoretic setting. There has been a lot of work on network security game models, but most of the focus has been either on simplified epidemic models or homogeneous network structure. We develop a new formulation for an epidemic containment game, which relies on the characterization of the SIS model in terms of the spectral radius of the network. We show in this model that pure Nash equilibria (NE) always exist, and can be found by a best response strategy. We analyze the complexity of finding NE, and derive rigorous bounds on their costs and the Price of Anarchy or PoA (the ratio of the cost of the worst NE to the optimum social cost) in general graphs as well as in random graph models. In particular, for arbitrary power-law graphs with exponent β > 2, we show that the PoA is bounded by O(T2(β -1))), where T = γ α is the ratio of the recovery rate to the transmission rate in the SIS model. We prove that this bound is tight up to a constant factor for the Chung-Lu random power-law graph model. We study the characteristics of Nash equilibria empirically in different real communication and infrastructure networks, and find that our analytical results can help explain some of the empirical observations. Predicting the diffusion of information on social networks is a key problem for applications like Opinion Leader Detection, Buzz Detection or Viral Marketing. Many recent diffusion models are direct extensions of the Cascade and Threshold models, initially proposed for epidemiology and social studies. In such models, the diffusion process is based on the dynamics of interactions between neighbor nodes in the network (the social pressure), and largely ignores important dimensions as the content of the piece of information diffused. We propose here a new family of probabilistic models that aims at predicting how a content diffuses in a network by making use of additional dimensions: the content of the piece of information diffused, user's profile and willingness to diffuse. These models are illustrated and compared with other approaches on two blog datasets. The experimental results obtained on these datasets show that taking into account the content of the piece of information diffused is important to accurately model the diffusion process.