We consider the problem of generating randomized control sequences for complex networked systems typically actuated by human agents. Our approach leverages a concept known as control improvisation, which is based on a combination of data-driven learning and controller synthesis from formal specifications. We learn from existing data a generative model (for instance, an explicit-duration hidden Markov model, or EDHMM) and then supervise this model in order to guarantee that the generated sequences satisfy some desirable specifications given in Probabilistic Computation Tree Logic (PCTL). We present an implementation of our approach and apply it to the problem of mimicking the use of lighting appliances in a residential unit, with potential applications to home security and resource management. We present experimental results showing that our approach produces realistic control sequences, similar to recorded data based on human actuation, while satisfying suitable formal requirements.
The related subjects of data-driven occupancy prediction @cite_15 and user behavior modeling for energy demand predictions have also been studied in recent years. In @cite_1 , a stochastic model to predict time-dependent user activity was presented, while in @cite_18 , a data-driven approach was adapted for learning residential power profiles based on user-specific factors. Integration of suitable occupancy and user prediction techniques with ours is a clear direction for future work.
@cite_15 @cite_1 @cite_18
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Abstract User behaviour plays a key role in the energy demand of residential buildings, and its importance will only increase when moving towards nearly Zero-Energy homes. However, little detailed information is available on how users interact with their homes. Due to the lack of information, user behaviour is often included in building performance simulations through one standard user pattern. To obtain more accurate energy demand simulations, user patterns are needed that capture the wide variations in behaviour without making simulations overly complicated. To this end, we developed a probabilistic model which generates realistic occupancy sequences that include three possible states: (1) at home and awake, (2) sleeping or (3) absent. This paper reports on the methodology used to construct this occupancy model based on the 2005 Belgian time-use survey. Using hierarchical clustering, we were able to identify seven typical occupancy patterns. The modelling of individual occupancy sequences based on this method enables to include highly differentiated yet realistic behaviour that is relevant to building simulations and can be used for individualised feedback based on peer comparison. The model's calibration data is available for download [1] . Realistic time-resolved data on occupant behaviour, presence and energy use are important inputs to various types of simulations, including performance of small-scale energy systems and buildings' indoor climate, use of lighting and energy demand. This paper presents a modelling framework for stochastic generation of high-resolution series of such data. The model generates both synthetic activity sequences of individual household members, including occupancy states, and domestic electricity demand based on these patterns. The activity-generating model, based on non-homogeneous Markov chains that are tuned to an extensive empirical time-use data set, creates a realistic spread of activities over time, down to a 1-min resolution. A detailed validation against measurements shows that modelled power demand data for individual households as well as aggregate demand for an arbitrary number of households are highly realistic in terms of end-use composition, annual and diurnal variations, diversity between households, short time-scale fluctuations and load coincidence. An important aim with the model development has been to maintain a sound balance between complexity and output quality. Although the model yields a high-quality output, the proposed model structure is uncomplicated in comparison to other available domestic load models. In this paper, the modeling of building end-use energy profile is comprehensively investigated. Top-down and Bottom-up approaches are discussed with a focus on the latter for better integration with occupant information. Compared to the Time-Of-Use (TOU) data used in previous Bottom-up models, this work utilizes high frequency sampled appliance power consumption data from wireless sensor network, and hence builds an appliance-data-driven probability based end-use energy profile model. ON OFF probabilities of appliances are used in this model, to build a non-homogeneous Markov Chain, compared to the duration statistics based model that is widely used in other works. The simulation results show the capability of the model to capture the diversity and variability of different categories of end-use appliance energy profile, which can further help on the design of a modern robust building power system. Abstract Energy is the lifeblood of modern societies. In the past decades, the world's energy consumption and associated CO2 emissions increased rapidly due to the increases in population and comfort demands of people. Building energy consumption prediction is essential for energy planning, management, and conservation. Data-driven models provide a practical approach to energy consumption prediction. This paper offers a review of the studies that developed data-driven building energy consumption prediction models, with a particular focus on reviewing the scopes of prediction, the data properties and the data preprocessing methods used, the machine learning algorithms utilized for prediction, and the performance measures used for evaluation. Based on this review, existing research gaps are identified and future research directions in the area of data-driven building energy consumption prediction are highlighted.