In Intelligent Tutoring System (ITS), tracing the student's knowledge state during learning has been studied for several decades in order to provide more supportive learning instructions. In this paper, we propose a novel model for knowledge tracing that i) captures students' learning ability and dynamically assigns students into distinct groups with similar ability at regular time intervals, and ii) combines this information with a Recurrent Neural Network architecture known as Deep Knowledge Tracing. Experimental results confirm that the proposed model is significantly better at predicting student performance than well known state-of-the-art techniques for student modelling.
We review here four of the best known state-of-the-art student modelling methods for estimating student's performance, either for their predominance in psychometrics (IRT) or Educational Data Mining (BKT), or because they are best performers (PFA, DKT). See @cite_18 for a general review.
@cite_18
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Estimating student proficiency is an important task for computer based learning systems. We compare a family of IRT-based proficiency estimation methods to Deep Knowledge Tracing (DKT), a recently proposed recurrent neural network model with promising initial results. We evaluate how well each model predicts a student's future response given previous responses using two publicly available and one proprietary data set. We find that IRT-based methods consistently matched or outperformed DKT across all data sets at the finest level of content granularity that was tractable for them to be trained on. A hierarchical extension of IRT that captured item grouping structure performed best overall. When data sets included non-trivial autocorrelations in student response patterns, a temporal extension of IRT improved performance over standard IRT while the RNN-based method did not. We conclude that IRT-based models provide a simpler, better-performing alternative to existing RNN-based models of student interaction data while also affording more interpretability and guarantees due to their formulation as Bayesian probabilistic models. Knowledge tracing (KT)[1] has been used in various forms for adaptive computerized instruction for more than 40 years. However, despite its long history of application, it is difficult to use in domain model search procedures, has not been used to capture learning where multiple skills are needed to perform a single action, and has not been used to compute latencies of actions. On the other hand, existing models used for educational data mining (e.g. Learning Factors Analysis (LFA)[2]) and model search do not tend to allow the creation of a “model overlay” that traces predictions for individual students with individual skills so as to allow the adaptive instruction to automatically remediate performance. Because these limitations make the transition from model search to model application in adaptive instruction more difficult, this paper describes our work to modify an existing data mining model so that it can also be used to select practice adaptively. We compare this new adaptive data mining model (PFA, Performance Factors Analysis) with two versions of LFA and then compare PFA with standard KT. Modeling students' knowledge is a fundamental part of intelligent tutoring systems. One of the most popular methods for estimating students' knowledge is Corbett and Anderson's [6] Bayesian Knowledge Tracing model. The model uses four parameters per skill, fit using student performance data, to relate performance to learning. Beck [1] showed that existing methods for determining these parameters are prone to the Identifiability Problem:the same performance data can be fit equally well by different parameters, with different implications on system behavior. Beck offered a solution based on Dirichlet Priors [1], but, we show this solution is vulnerable to a different problem, Model Degeneracy, where parameter values violate the model's conceptual meaning (such as a student being more likely to get a correct answer if he she does not know a skill than if he she does).We offer a new method for instantiating Bayesian Knowledge Tracing, using machine learning to make contextual estimations of the probability that a student has guessed or slipped. This method is no more prone to problems with Identifiability than Beck's solution, has less Model Degeneracy than competing approaches, and fits student performance data better than prior methods. Thus, it allows for more accurate and reliable student modeling in ITSs that use knowledge tracing. Student modeling is an important component of ITS research because it can help guide the behavior of a running tutor and help researchers understand how students learn. Due to its predictive accuracy, interpretability and ability to infer student knowledge, Corbett & Anderson’s Bayesian Knowledge Tracing is one of the most popular student models. However, researchers have discovered problems with some of the most popular methods of fitting it. These problems include: multiple sets of highly dissimilar parameters predicting the data equally well (identifiability), local minima, degenerate parameters, and computational cost during fitting. Some researchers have proposed new fitting procedures to combat these problems, but are more complex and not completely successful at eliminating the problems they set out to prevent. We instead fit parameters by estimating the mostly likely point that each student learned the skill, developing a new method that avoids the above problems while achieving similar predictive accuracy.