Abstract In large crowd events, there is always a potential possibility that a stampede accident will occur. The accident may cause injuries or even death. Approaches for controlling crowd flows and predicting dangerous congestion spots would be a boon to on-site authorities to manage the crowd and to prevent fatal accidents. One of the most popular approaches is real-time crowd simulation based on position data from personal Global Positioning System (GPS) devices. However, the accuracy of spatial data varies for different GPS devices, and it is also affected by an environment in which an event takes place. In this paper, we would like to assess the effect of position errors on stampede prediction. We propose an Automatic Real-time dEtection of Stampedes (ARES) method to predict stampedes for large events. We implement three different stampede assessment methods in Menge framework and incorporate position errors. Our analysis suggests that the probability of simulated stampede changes significantly with the increase of the magnitude of position errors, which cannot be eliminated entirely with the help of classic techniques, such as the Kalman filter. Thus, it is our position that novel stampede assessment methods should be developed, focusing on the detection of position noise and the elimination of its effect.
Agent-based pedestrian crowd simulation is a well-known solution for crowd management. Thus, a variety of simulation frameworks were proposed. @cite_6 proposed a multi-agent framework to simulate emergency evacuation scenarios. @cite_25 introduced an open-source, cross-platform and agent-based crowd simulation framework---Menge. @cite_19 proposed an agent-based crowd simulation and analysis framework and used a case study of Hajj as an example for the assessment of crowd evacuation strategies.
@cite_19 @cite_25 @cite_6
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In recent years crowd modeling has become increasingly important both in the computer games industry and in emergency simulation. This paper discusses some aspects of what has been accomplished in this field, from social sciences to the computer implementation of modeling and simulation. Problem overview is described including some of the most common techniques used. Multi-Agent Systems is stated as the preferred approach for emergency evacuation simulations. A framework is proposed based on the work of Fangqin and Aizhu with extensions to include some BDI aspects. Future work includes expansion of the model's features and implementation of a prototype for validation of the propose methodology. Hajj is one of the largest mass gatherings where Muslims from all over the world gather in Makah each year for pilgrimage. A mass assembly of such scale bears a huge risk of disaster either natural or man-made. In the past few years, thousands of casualties have occurred while performing different Hajj rituals, especially during the Circumambulation of Kaba (Tawaf) due to stampede or chaos. During such calamitous situations, an appropriate evacuation strategy can help resolve the problem and mitigate further risk of causalities. It is however a daunting research problem to identify an optimal course of action based on several constraints. Modeling and analyzing such a problem of real-time and spatially explicit complexity requires a microscale crowd simulation and analysis framework. Which not only allows the modeler to express the spatial dimensions and features of the environment in real scale, but also provides modalities to capture complex crowd behaviors. In this paper, we propose an Agent-based Crowd Simulation & Analysis framework that incorporates the use of Anylogic Pedestrian library and integrates interoperate Anylogic Simulation environment with the external modules for optimization and analysis. Hence provides a runtime environment for analyzing complex situations, e.g., emergency evacuation strategies. The key features of the proposed framework include: (i) Ability to model large crowd in a spatially explicit environment at real-scale; (ii) Simulation of complex crowd behavior such as emergency evacuation; (iii) Interoperability of optimization and analysis modules with simulation runtime for evaluating evacuation strategies. We present a case study of Hajj scenario as a proof of concept and a test bed for identifying and evaluating optimal strategies for crowd evacuation In this paper, a new Mixture model of Dynamic pedestrian-Agents (MDA) is proposed to learn the collective behavior patterns of pedestrians in crowded scenes. Collective behaviors characterize the intrinsic dynamics of the crowd. From the agent-based modeling, each pedestrian in the crowd is driven by a dynamic pedestrian-agent, which is a linear dynamic system with its initial and termination states reflecting a pedestrian's belief of the starting point and the destination. Then the whole crowd is modeled as a mixture of dynamic pedestrian-agents. Once the model is unsupervisedly learned from real data, MDA can simulate the crowd behaviors. Furthermore, MDA can well infer the past behaviors and predict the future behaviors of pedestrians given their trajectories only partially observed, and classify different pedestrian behaviors in the scene. The effectiveness of MDA and its applications are demonstrated by qualitative and quantitative experiments on the video surveillance dataset collected from the New York Grand Central Station. We present an example-based crowd simulation technique. Most crowd simulation techniques assume that the behavior exhibited by each person in the crowd can be defined by a restricted set of rules. This assumption limits the behavioral complexity of the simulated agents. By learning from real-world examples, our autonomous agents display complex natural behaviors that are often missing in crowd simulations. Examples are created from tracked video segments of real pedestrian crowds. During a simulation, autonomous agents search for examples that closely match the situation that they are facing. Trajectories taken by real people in similar situations, are copied to the simulated agents, resulting in seemingly natural behaviors.