Variable importance is central to scientific studies, including the social sciences and causal inference, healthcare, and in other domains. However, current notions of variable importance are often tied to a specific predictive model. This is problematic: what if there were multiple well-performing predictive models, and a specific variable is important to some of them and not to others? In that case, we may not be able to tell from a single well-performing model whether a variable is always important in predicting the outcome. Rather than depending on variable importance for a single predictive model, we would like to explore variable importance for all approximately-equally-accurate predictive models. This work introduces the concept of a variable importance cloud, which maps every variable to its importance for every good predictive model. We show properties of the variable importance cloud and draw connections other areas of statistics. We introduce variable importance diagrams as a projection of the variable importance cloud into two dimensions for visualization purposes. Experiments with criminal justice and marketing data illustrate how variables can change dramatically in importance for approximately-equally-accurate predictive models.
In our paper, we analyze variable importance in the context of a set of good models, namely the Rashomon set. This idea is closely related to the works that investigate variable importance without using posthoc analysis. @cite_11 estimate the bounds of variable importance in the sense that no good predictive model has variable importance that exceed the bounds. Unlike the posthoc methods mentioned above, they do not study variable importance for a pre-selected model. Instead, the analysis is performed on the set of all good models within a model class. Our work differs from theirs because we look at the joint set of variable importance rather than only the extremes. Our approach can reveal the importance of a variable in the context of other variables, which is not what their framework is designed to do.
@cite_11
2083712543 2949399223 2899595183 2147631685
Three Bayesian related approaches, namely, variational Bayesian (VB), minimum message length (MML) and Bayesian Ying-Yang (BYY) harmony learning, have been applied to automatically determining an appropriate number of components during learning Gaussian mixture model (GMM). This paper aims to provide a comparative investigation on these approaches with not only a Jeffreys prior but also a conjugate Dirichlet-Normal-Wishart (DNW) prior on GMM. In addition to adopting the existing algorithms either directly or with some modifications, the algorithm for VB with Jeffreys prior and the algorithm for BYY with DNW prior are developed in this paper to fill the missing gap. The performances of automatic model selection are evaluated through extensive experiments, with several empirical findings: 1) Considering priors merely on the mixing weights, each of three approaches makes biased mistakes, while considering priors on all the parameters of GMM makes each approach reduce its bias and also improve its performance. 2) As Jeffreys prior is replaced by the DNW prior, all the three approaches improve their performances. Moreover, Jeffreys prior makes MML slightly better than VB, while the DNW prior makes VB better than MML. 3) As the hyperparameters of DNW prior are further optimized by each of its own learning principle, BYY improves its performances while VB and MML deteriorate their performances when there are too many free hyper-parameters. Actually, VB and MML lack a good guide for optimizing the hyper-parameters of DNW prior. 4) BYY considerably outperforms both VB and MML for any type of priors and whether hyper-parameters are optimized. Being different from VB and MML that rely on appropriate priors to perform model selection, BYY does not highly depend on the type of priors. It has model selection ability even without priors and performs already very well with Jeffreys prior, and incrementally improves as Jeffreys prior is replaced by the DNW prior. Finally, all algorithms are applied on the Berkeley segmentation database of real world images. Again, BYY considerably outperforms both VB and MML, especially in detecting the objects of interest from a confusing background. We propose robust methods for inference on the effect of a treatment variable on a scalar outcome in the presence of very many controls. Our setting is a partially linear model with possibly non-Gaussian and heteroscedastic disturbances. Our analysis allows the number of controls to be much larger than the sample size. To make informative inference feasible, we require the model to be approximately sparse; that is, we require that the effect of confounding factors can be controlled for up to a small approximation error by conditioning on a relatively small number of controls whose identities are unknown. The latter condition makes it possible to estimate the treatment effect by selecting approximately the right set of controls. We develop a novel estimation and uniformly valid inference method for the treatment effect in this setting, called the "post-double-selection" method. Our results apply to Lasso-type methods used for covariate selection as well as to any other model selection method that is able to find a sparse model with good approximation properties. The main attractive feature of our method is that it allows for imperfect selection of the controls and provides confidence intervals that are valid uniformly across a large class of models. In contrast, standard post-model selection estimators fail to provide uniform inference even in simple cases with a small, fixed number of controls. Thus our method resolves the problem of uniform inference after model selection for a large, interesting class of models. We illustrate the use of the developed methods with numerical simulations and an application to the effect of abortion on crime rates. Variable importance (VI) tools describe how much covariates contribute to a prediction model's accuracy. However, important variables for one well-performing model (for example, a linear model @math with a fixed coefficient vector @math ) may be unimportant for another model. In this paper, we propose model class reliance (MCR) as the range of VI values across all well-performing model in a prespecified class. Thus, MCR gives a more comprehensive description of importance by accounting for the fact that many prediction models, possibly of different parametric forms, may fit the data well. In the process of deriving MCR, we show several informative results for permutation-based VI estimates, similar to the VI measures used in Random Forests. Specifically, we derive connections between permutation importance estimates for a single prediction model, U-statistics, conditional causal effects, and linear model coefficients. We then give probabilistic bounds for MCR, using a novel, generalizable technique. We apply MCR in a public dataset of Broward County criminal records to study the reliance of recidivism prediction models on sex and race. In this application, MCR can be used to help inform VI for unknown, proprietary models. Meinshausen and Buhlmann [Ann. Statist. 34 (2006) 1436-1462] showed that, for neighborhood selection in Gaussian graphical models, under a neighborhood stability condition, the LASSO is consistent, even when the number of variables is of greater order than the sample size. Zhao and Yu [(2006) J. Machine Learning Research 7 2541-2567] formalized the neighborhood stability condition in the context of linear regression as a strong irrepresentable condition. That paper showed that under this condition, the LASSO selects exactly the set of nonzero regression coefficients, provided that these coefficients are bounded away from zero at a certain rate. In this paper, the regression coefficients outside an ideal model are assumed to be small, but not necessarily zero. Under a sparse Riesz condition on the correlation of design variables, we prove that the LASSO selects a model of the correct order of dimensionality, controls the bias of the selected model at a level determined by the contributions of small regression coefficients and threshold bias, and selects all coefficients of greater order than the bias of the selected model. Moreover, as a consequence of this rate consistency of the LASSO in model selection, it is proved that the sum of error squares for the mean response and the l α -loss for the regression coefficients converge at the best possible rates under the given conditions. An interesting aspect of our results is that the logarithm of the number of variables can be of the same order as the sample size for certain random dependent designs.