Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) is a framework for performing likelihood-free posterior inference for simulation models. Stochastic Variational inference (SVI) is an appealing alternative to the inefficient sampling approaches commonly used in ABC. However, SVI is highly sensitive to the variance of the gradient estimators, and this problem is exacerbated by approximating the likelihood. We draw upon recent advances in variance reduction for SV and likelihood-free inference using deterministic simulations to produce low variance gradient estimators of the variational lower-bound. By then exploiting automatic differentiation libraries we can avoid nearly all model-specific derivations. We demonstrate performance on three problems and compare to existing SVI algorithms. Our results demonstrate the correctness and efficiency of our algorithm.
@cite_2 used automatic differentiation to fully automate variational inference, which we refer to as AVI. AVI fits a Gaussian variational distribution in a transformed space, leading to a non-Gaussian approximation in the original space when transformed back. This limits the range of variational distributions. In the transformed space they make a fully-factorized mean-field assumption. AVI requires rewriting the simulator in STAN. With complex simulators, this is unrealistic and negates the main benefit: that it is automatic.
@cite_2
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Variational inference is a scalable technique for approximate Bayesian inference. Deriving variational inference algorithms requires tedious model-specific calculations; this makes it difficult for non-experts to use. We propose an automatic variational inference algorithm, automatic differentiation variational inference (ADVI); we implement it in Stan (code available), a probabilistic programming system. In ADVI the user provides a Bayesian model and a dataset, nothing else. We make no conjugacy assumptions and support a broad class of models. The algorithm automatically determines an appropriate variational family and optimizes the variational objective. We compare ADVI to MCMC sampling across hierarchical generalized linear models, nonconjugate matrix factorization, and a mixture model. We train the mixture model on a quarter million images. With ADVI we can use variational inference on any model we write in Stan. Stochastic variational inference makes it possible to approximate posterior distributions induced by large datasets quickly using stochastic optimization. The algorithm relies on the use of fully factorized variational distributions. However, this "mean-field" independence approximation limits the fidelity of the posterior approximation, and introduces local optima. We show how to relax the mean-field approximation to allow arbitrary dependencies between global parameters and local hidden variables, producing better parameter estimates by reducing bias, sensitivity to local optima, and sensitivity to hyperparameters. The variational autoencoder (VAE) is a popular model for density estimation and representation learning. Canonically, the variational principle suggests to prefer an expressive inference model so that the variational approximation is accurate. However, it is often overlooked that an overly-expressive inference model can be detrimental to the test set performance of both the amortized posterior approximator and, more importantly, the generative density estimator. In this paper, we leverage the fact that VAEs rely on amortized inference and propose techniques for amortized inference regularization (AIR) that control the smoothness of the inference model. We demonstrate that, by applying AIR, it is possible to improve VAE generalization on both inference and generative performance. Our paper challenges the belief that amortized inference is simply a mechanism for approximating maximum likelihood training and illustrates that regularization of the amortization family provides a new direction for understanding and improving generalization in VAEs. Stochastic variational inference (SVI), the state-of-the-art algorithm for scaling variational inference to large-datasets, is inherently serial. Moreover, it requires the parameters to fit in the memory of a single processor; this is problematic when the number of parameters is in billions. In this paper, we propose extreme stochastic variational inference (ESVI), an asynchronous and lock-free algorithm to perform variational inference for mixture models on massive real world datasets. ESVI overcomes the limitations of SVI by requiring that each processor only access a subset of the data and a subset of the parameters, thus providing data and model parallelism simultaneously. We demonstrate the effectiveness of ESVI by running Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) on UMBC-3B, a dataset that has a vocabulary of 3 million and a token size of 3 billion. In our experiments, we found that ESVI not only outperforms VI and SVI in wallclock-time, but also achieves a better quality solution. In addition, we propose a strategy to speed up computation and save memory when fitting large number of topics.