Knowing where people live is a fundamental component of many decision making processes such as urban development, infectious disease containment, evacuation planning, risk management, conservation planning, and more. While bottom-up, survey driven censuses can provide a comprehensive view into the population landscape of a country, they are expensive to realize, are infrequently performed, and only provide population counts over broad areas. Population disaggregation techniques and population projection methods individually address these shortcomings, but also have shortcomings of their own. To jointly answer the questions of "where do people live" and "how many people live there," we propose a deep learning model for creating high-resolution population estimations from satellite imagery. Specifically, we train convolutional neural networks to predict population in the USA at a @math resolution grid from 1-year composite Landsat imagery. We validate these models in two ways: quantitatively, by comparing our model's grid cell estimates aggregated at a county-level to several US Census county-level population projections, and qualitatively, by directly interpreting the model's predictions in terms of the satellite image inputs. We find that aggregating our model's estimates gives comparable results to the Census county-level population projections and that the predictions made by our model can be directly interpreted, which give it advantages over traditional population disaggregation methods. In general, our model is an example of how machine learning techniques can be an effective tool for extracting information from inherently unstructured, remotely sensed data to provide effective solutions to social problems.
The most similar work to ours also uses CNNs to estimate population from satellite imagery @cite_19 . The motivation of this paper is similar to ours, as we both attempt to create high-resolution gridded population counts for use in planning applications. This paper estimates population in Kenya at a 8km @math resolution with a CNN trained on data from Tanzania at a @math satellite pixel resolution. The author's propose a way to use their CNN's output as a weighted surface for population disaggregation, and compare this method to other methods for disaggregating population counts in Kenya. Our work differs in several important ways. First, we focus on validating our model's predictions as raw population projections and do not consider using our model's prediction as a weighted surface for distributing population counts. If the population (or projected population) of an area is known a priori, then any population method can degrade into a weighting scheme. Secondly, we focus on interpreting the results of our model as a way of validating its ability to generalize. Thirdly, we apply our method to the entire US using census block derived training and testing data.
@cite_19
2558280540 2617256461 2962832028 2480078828
High-resolution population density maps are a critical component for global development efforts, including service delivery, resource allocation, and disaster response. Traditional population density efforts are predominantly survey driven, which are laborious, prohibitively expensive, infrequently updated, and inaccurate -- especially in remote areas. Furthermore, these maps are developed on a regional-basis where the methods used vary region to region, hence introducing notable spatio-temporal heterogeneity and bias. The advent of global-scale satellite imagery provides us with an unprecedented opportunity to create inexpensive, accurate, homogeneous, and rapidly updated population maps. To fulfill this vision, we must overcome both infrastructure and methodological obstacles. We propose a convolutional neural network approach that addresses some of the methodological challenges, while employing a publicly available, albeit low resolution, remote sensed product. The method converts satellite images into population density estimates. To explore both the accuracy and generalizability of our approach, we train our neural network on Tanzanian imagery and test the model on Kenyan data. We show that our method is able to generalize to unseen data and we improve upon the current state of the art by 177 percent. For crowded scenes, the accuracy of object-based computer vision methods declines when the images are low-resolution and objects have severe occlusions. Taking counting methods for example, almost all the recent state-of-the-art counting methods bypass explicit detection and adopt regression-based methods to directly count the objects of interest. Among regression-based methods, density map estimation, where the number of objects inside a subregion is the integral of the density map over that subregion, is especially promising because it preserves spatial information, which makes it useful for both counting and localization (detection and tracking). With the power of deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) the counting performance has improved steadily. The goal of this paper is to evaluate density maps generated by density estimation methods on a variety of crowd analysis tasks, including counting, detection, and tracking. Most existing CNN methods produce density maps with resolution that is smaller than the original images, due to the downsample strides in the convolution pooling operations. To produce an original-resolution density map, we also evaluate a classical CNN that uses a sliding window regressor to predict the density for every pixel in the image. We also consider a fully convolutional (FCNN) adaptation, with skip connections from lower convolutional layers to compensate for loss in spatial information during upsampling. In our experiments, we found that the lower-resolution density maps sometimes have better counting performance. In contrast, the original-resolution density maps improved localization tasks, such as detection and tracking, compared to bilinear upsampling the lower-resolution density maps. Finally, we also propose several metrics for measuring the quality of a density map, and relate them to experiment results on counting and localization. For crowded scenes, the accuracy of object-based computer vision methods declines when the images are low-resolution and objects have severe occlusions. Taking counting methods for example, almost all the recent state-of-the-art counting methods bypass explicit detection and adopt regression-based methods to directly count the objects of interest. Among regression-based methods, density map estimation, where the number of objects inside a subregion is the integral of the density map over that subregion, is especially promising because it preserves spatial information, which makes it useful for both counting and localization (detection and tracking). With the power of deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) the counting performance has improved steadily. The goal of this paper is to evaluate density maps generated by density estimation methods on a variety of crowd analysis tasks, including counting, detection, and tracking. Most existing CNN methods produce density maps with resolution that is smaller than the original images, due to the downsample strides in the convolution pooling operations. To produce an original-resolution density map, we also evaluate a classical CNN that uses a sliding window regressor to predict the density for every pixel in the image. We also consider a fully convolutional adaptation, with skip connections from lower convolutional layers to compensate for loss in spatial information during upsampling. In our experiments, we found that the lower-resolution density maps sometimes have better counting performance. In contrast, the original-resolution density maps improved localization tasks, such as detection and tracking, compared with bilinear upsampling the lower-resolution density maps. Finally, we also propose several metrics for measuring the quality of a density map, and relate them to experiment results on counting and localization. We propose a deep Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) for land cover mapping in remote sensing images, with a focus on urban areas. In remote sensing, class imbalance represents often a problem for tasks like land cover mapping, as small objects get less prioritised in an effort to achieve the best overall accuracy. We propose a novel approach to achieve high overall accuracy, while still achieving good accuracy for small objects. Quantifying the uncertainty on a pixel scale is another challenge in remote sensing, especially when using CNNs. In this paper we use recent advances in measuring uncertainty for CNNs and evaluate their quality both qualitatively and quantitatively in a remote sensing context. We demonstrate our ideas on different deep architectures including patch-based and so-called pixel-to-pixel approaches, as well as their combination, by classifying each pixel in a set of aerial images covering Vaihingen, Germany. The results show that we obtain an overall classification accuracy of 87 . The corresponding F1- score for the small object class "car" is 80.6 , which is higher than state-of-the art for this dataset.