During the lifetime of a Business Process changes can be made to the workflow, the required resources, required documents, . . . . Different traces from the same Business Process within a single log file can thus differ substantially due to these changes. We propose a method that is able to detect concept drift in multivariate log files with a dozen attributes. We test our approach on the BPI Challenge 2018 data con- sisting of applications for EU direct payment from farmers in Germany where we use it to detect Concept Drift. In contrast to other methods our algorithm does not require the manual selection of the features used to detect drift. Our method first creates a model that captures the re- lations between attributes and between events of different time steps. This model is then used to score every event and trace. These scores can be used to detect outlying cases and concept drift. Thanks to the decomposability of the score we are able to perform detailed root-cause analysis.
In @cite_3 a concept drift detection method is proposed that uses statistical tests over feature vectors. These feature vectors are based on the order in which activities occur in the workflow. They record for example how many activities always, sometimes, or never occur after a given activity. Other measures can be used to add extra features that may incorporate the other attributes in the log. The method does require manual selection of the exact features to be used in the statistical tests.
@cite_3
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An established method to detect concept drift in data streams is to perform statistical hypothesis testing on the multivariate data in the stream. The statistical theory offers rank-based statistics for this task. However, these statistics depend on a fixed set of characteristics of the underlying distribution. Thus, they work well whenever the change in the underlying distribution affects the properties measured by the statistic, but they perform not very well, if the drift influences the characteristics caught by the test statistic only to a small degree. To address this problem, we show how uniform convergence bounds in learning theory can be adjusted for adaptive concept drift detection. In particular, we present three novel drift detection tests, whose test statistics are dynamically adapted to match the actual data at hand. The first one is based on a rank statistic on density estimates for a binary representation of the data, the second compares average margins of a linear classifier induced by the 1-norm support vector machine (SVM), and the last one is based on the average zero-one, sigmoid or stepwise linear error rate of an SVM classifier. We compare these new approaches with the maximum mean discrepancy method, the StreamKrimp system, and the multivariate Wald–Wolfowitz test. The results indicate that the new methods are able to detect concept drift reliably and that they perform favorably in a precision-recall analysis. Copyright © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Statistical Analysis and Data Mining 2: 311-327, 2009 Business processes are prone to continuous and unexpected changes. Process workers may start executing a process differently in order to adjust to changes in workload, season, guidelines or regulations for example. Early detection of business process changes based on their event logs --- also known as business process drift detection --- enables analysts to identify and act upon changes that may otherwise affect process performance. Previous methods for business process drift detection are based on an exploration of a potentially large feature space and in some cases they require users to manually identify the specific features that characterize the drift. Depending on the explored feature set, these methods may miss certain types of changes. This paper proposes a fully automated and statistically grounded method for detecting process drift. The core idea is to perform statistical tests over the distributions of runs observed in two consecutive time windows. By adaptively sizing the window, the method strikes a trade-off between classification accuracy and drift detection delay. A validation on synthetic and real-life logs shows that the method accurately detects typical change patterns and scales up to the extent that it works for online drift detection. New classifier-independent, dynamic, unsupervised approach for detecting concept drift.Reduced number of false alarms and increased relevance of drift detection.Results comparable to supervised approaches, which require fully labeled streams.Our approach generalizes the notion of margin density, as a signal to detect drifts.Experiments on cybersecurity datasets, show efficacy for detecting adversarial drifts. Classifiers deployed in the real world operate in a dynamic environment, where the data distribution can change over time. These changes, referred to as concept drift, can cause the predictive performance of the classifier to drop over time, thereby making it obsolete. To be of any real use, these classifiers need to detect drifts and be able to adapt to them, over time. Detecting drifts has traditionally been approached as a supervised task, with labeled data constantly being used for validating the learned model. Although effective in detecting drifts, these techniques are impractical, as labeling is a difficult, costly and time consuming activity. On the other hand, unsupervised change detection techniques are unreliable, as they produce a large number of false alarms. The inefficacy of the unsupervised techniques stems from the exclusion of the characteristics of the learned classifier, from the detection process. In this paper, we propose the Margin Density Drift Detection (MD3) algorithm, which tracks the number of samples in the uncertainty region of a classifier, as a metric to detect drift. The MD3 algorithm is a distribution independent, application independent, model independent, unsupervised and incremental algorithm for reliably detecting drifts from data streams. Experimental evaluation on 6 drift induced datasets and 4 additional datasets from the cybersecurity domain demonstrates that the MD3 approach can reliably detect drifts, with significantly fewer false alarms compared to unsupervised feature based drift detectors. At the same time, it produces performance comparable to that of a fully labeled drift detector. The reduced false alarms enables the signaling of drifts only when they are most likely to affect classification performance. As such, the MD3 approach leads to a detection scheme which is credible, label efficient and general in its applicability. Decision makers increasingly require near-instant models to make sense of fast evolving data streams. Learning from such evolving environments is, however, a challenging task. This challenge is partially due to the fact that the distribution of data often changes over time, thus potentially leading to degradation in the overall performance. In particular, classification algorithms need to adapt their models after facing such distributional changes (also referred to as concept drifts). Usually, drift detection methods are utilized in order to accomplish this task. It follows that detecting concept drifts as soon as possible, while resulting in fewer false positives and false negatives, is a major objective of drift detectors. To this end, we introduce the Fast Hoeffding Drift Detection Method (FHDDM) which detects the drift points using a sliding window and Hoeffding’s inequality. FHDDM detects a drift when a significant difference between the maximum probability of correct predictions and the most recent probability of correct predictions is observed. Experimental results confirm that FHDDM detects drifts with less detection delay, less false positive and less false negative, when compared to the state-of-the-art.