Many social media platforms offer a mechanism for readers to react to comments, both positively and negatively, which in aggregate can be thought of as community endorsement. This paper addresses the problem of predicting community endorsement in online discussions, leveraging both the participant response structure and the text of the comment. The different types of features are integrated in a neural network that uses a novel architecture to learn latent modes of discussion structure that perform as well as deep neural networks but are more interpretable. In addition, the latent modes can be used to weight text features thereby improving prediction accuracy.
For all the different types of measures, a challenge in predicting the cumulative reaction is that the cases of most interest are at the tails of a Zipfian distribution. Various prediction tasks have been proposed with this in mind, including regression on a log score @cite_17 , classification into 3-4 groups (e.g. none, low, high) @cite_6 @cite_4 @cite_2 , a binary decision as to whether the score will double given a current score @cite_24 , and relative ranking of comments @cite_26 @cite_3 . In our work, we take the approach of classification, but use a finer grain quantization with bins automatically determined by the score distribution.
@cite_26 @cite_4 @cite_6 @cite_3 @cite_24 @cite_2 @cite_17
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Machine learning techniques such as classification and regression trees (CART) have been suggested as promising alternatives to logistic regression for the estimation of propensity scores. The authors examined the performance of various CART-based propensity score models using simulated data. Hypothetical studies of varying sample sizes (n=500, 1000, 2000) with a binary exposure, continuous outcome, and ten covariates were simulated under seven scenarios differing by degree of non-linear and non-additive associations between covariates and the exposure. Propensity score weights were estimated using logistic regression (all main effects), CART, pruned CART, and the ensemble methods of bagged CART, random forests, and boosted CART. Performance metrics included covariate balance, standard error, percent absolute bias, and 95 confidence interval coverage. All methods displayed generally acceptable performance under conditions of either non-linearity or non-additivity alone. However, under conditions of both moderate non-additivity and moderate non-linearity, logistic regression had subpar performance, while ensemble methods provided substantially better bias reduction and more consistent 95 CI coverage. The results suggest that ensemble methods, especially boosted CART, may be useful for propensity score weighting. This paper studies two-class (or binary) classification of elements X in R k that allows for a reject option. Based on n independent copies of the pair of random variables (X,Y ) with X 2 R k and Y 2 0,1 , we consider classifiers f(X) that render three possible outputs: 0, 1 and R. The option R expresses doubt and is to be used for few observations that are hard to classify in an automatic way. Chow (1970) derived the optimal rule minimizing the risk P f(X) 6 Y, f(X) 6 R + dP f(X) = R . This risk function subsumes that the cost of making a wrong decision equals 1 and that of utilizing the reject option is d. We show that the classification problem hinges on the behavior of the regression function (x) = E(Y |X = x) near d and 1 d. (Here d 2 [0,1 2] as the other cases turn out to be trivial.) Classification rules can be categorized into plug-in estimators and empirical risk minimizers. Both types are considered here and we prove that the rates of convergence of the risk of any estimate depends on P | (X) d| + P | (X) (1 d)| and on the quality of the estimate for or an appropriate measure of the size of the class of classifiers, in case of plug-in rules and empirical risk minimizers, respectively. We extend the mathematical framework even further by dierentiating between costs associated with the two possible errors: predicting f(X) = 0 whilst Y = 1 and predicting f(X) = 1 whilst Y = 0. Such situations are common in, for instance, medical studies where misclassifying a sick patient as healthy is worse than the opposite. We are interested in estimating the average effect of a binary treatment on a scalar outcome. If assignment to the treatment is independent of the potential outcomes given pretreatment variables, biases associated with simple treatment-control average comparisons can be removed by adjusting for differences in the pre-treatment variables. Rosenbaum and Rubin (1983, 1984) show that adjusting solely for differences between treated and control units in a scalar function of the pre-treatment, the propensity score, also removes the entire bias associated with differences in pre-treatment variables. Thus it is possible to obtain unbiased estimates of the treatment effect without conditioning on a possibly high-dimensional vector of pre-treatment variables. Although adjusting for the propensity score removes all the bias, this can come at the expense of efficiency. We show that weighting with the inverse of a nonparametric estimate of the propensity score, rather than the true propensity score, leads to efficient estimates of the various average treatment effects. This result holds whether the pre-treatment variables have discrete or continuous distributions. We provide intuition for this result in a number of ways. First we show that with discrete covariates, exact adjustment for the estimated propensity score is identical to adjustment for the pre-treatment variables. Second, we show that weighting by the inverse of the estimated propensity score can be interpreted as an empirical likelihood estimator that efficiently incorporates the information about the propensity score. Finally, we make a connection to results to other results on efficient estimation through weighting in the context of variable probability sampling. We propose using five data-driven community detection approaches from social networks to partition the label space in the task of multi-label classification as an alternative to random partitioning into equal subsets as performed by RAkELd. We evaluate modularity-maximizing using fast greedy and leading eigenvector approximations, infomap, walktrap and label propagation algorithms. For this purpose, we propose to construct a label co-occurrence graph (both weighted and unweighted versions) based on training data and perform community detection to partition the label set. Then, each partition constitutes a label space for separate multi-label classification sub-problems. As a result, we obtain an ensemble of multi-label classifiers that jointly covers the whole label space. Based on the binary relevance and label powerset classification methods, we compare community detection methods to label space divisions against random baselines on 12 benchmark datasets over five evaluation measures. We discover that data-driven approaches are more efficient and more likely to outperform RAkELd than binary relevance or label powerset is, in every evaluated measure. For all measures, apart from Hamming loss, data-driven approaches are significantly better than RAkELd ( α = 0 . 05 ), and at least one data-driven approach is more likely to outperform RAkELd than a priori methods in the case of RAkELd’s best performance. This is the largest RAkELd evaluation published to date with 250 samplings per value for 10 values of RAkELd parameter k on 12 datasets published to date.