Inference for population genetics models is hindered by computationally intractable likelihoods. While this issue is tackled by likelihood-free methods, these approaches typically rely on hand-crafted summary statistics of the data. In complex settings, designing and selecting suitable summary statistics is problematic and results are very sensitive to such choices. In this paper, we learn the first exchangeable feature representation for population genetic data to work directly with genotype data. This is achieved by means of a novel Bayesian likelihood-free inference framework, where a permutation-invariant convolutional neural network learns the inverse functional relationship from the data to the posterior. We leverage access to scientific simulators to learn such likelihood-free function mappings, and establish a general framework for inference in a variety of simulation-based tasks. We demonstrate the power of our method on the recombination hotspot testing problem, outperforming the state-of-the-art.
Other likelihood-free approaches have emerged from the machine learning community and have been applied to population genetics, such as support vector machines (SVMs) @cite_29 @cite_24 , single-layer neural networks @cite_20 , and deep learning @cite_7 . The connection between likelihood-free Bayesian inference and neural networks has also been studied previously by and . An attractive property of these methods is that, unlike ABC, they can be applied to multiple datasets without repeating the training process, which is commonly referred to as amortized inference. However, current practice in population genetics collapses the data to a set of summary statistics before passing it through the machine learning models. Therefore, the performance still rests on the ability to laboriously hand-engineer informative statistics, and must be repeated from scratch for each new problem setting.
@cite_24 @cite_29 @cite_7 @cite_20
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Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) techniques permit inferences in complex demographic models, but are computationally inefficient. A Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach has been proposed ( 2003), but it suffers from computational problems and poor mixing. We propose several methodological developments to overcome the shortcomings of this MCMC approach and hence realize substantial computational advances over standard ABC. The principal idea is to relax the tolerance within MCMC to permit good mixing, but retain a good approximation to the posterior by a combination of subsampling the output and regression adjustment. We also propose to use a partial least-squares (PLS) transformation to choose informative statistics. The accuracy of our approach is examined in the case of the divergence of two populations with and without migration. In that case, our ABC–MCMC approach needs considerably lower computation time to reach the same accuracy than conventional ABC. We then apply our method to a more complex case with the estimation of divergence times and migration rates between three African populations. Approximate Bayesian inference on the basis of summary statistics is well-suited to complex problems for which the likelihood is either mathematically or computationally intractable. However the methods that use rejection suffer from the curse of dimensionality when the number of summary statistics is increased. Here we propose a machine-learning approach to the estimation of the posterior density by introducing two innovations. The new method fits a nonlinear conditional heteroscedastic regression of the parameter on the summary statistics, and then adaptively improves estimation using importance sampling. The new algorithm is compared to the state-of-the-art approximate Bayesian methods, and achieves considerable reduction of the computational burden in two examples of inference in statistical genetics and in a queueing model. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) constitutes a class of computational methods rooted in Bayesian statistics. In all model-based statistical inference, the likelihood function is of central importance, since it expresses the probability of the observed data under a particular statistical model, and thus quantifies the support data lend to particular values of parameters and to choices among different models. For simple models, an analytical formula for the likelihood function can typically be derived. However, for more complex models, an analytical formula might be elusive or the likelihood function might be computationally very costly to evaluate. ABC methods bypass the evaluation of the likelihood function. In this way, ABC methods widen the realm of models for which statistical inference can be considered. ABC methods are mathematically well-founded, but they inevitably make assumptions and approximations whose impact needs to be carefully assessed. Furthermore, the wider application domain of ABC exacerbates the challenges of parameter estimation and model selection. ABC has rapidly gained popularity over the last years and in particular for the analysis of complex problems arising in biological sciences (e.g., in population genetics, ecology, epidemiology, and systems biology). Scientists often express their understanding of the world through a computationally demanding simulation program. Analyzing the posterior distribution of the parameters given observations (the inverse problem) can be extremely challenging. The Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) framework is the standard statistical tool to handle these likelihood free problems, but they require a very large number of simulations. In this work we develop two new ABC sampling algorithms that significantly reduce the number of simulations necessary for posterior inference. Both algorithms use confidence estimates for the accept probability in the Metropolis Hastings step to adaptively choose the number of necessary simulations. Our GPS-ABC algorithm stores the information obtained from every simulation in a Gaussian process which acts as a surrogate function for the simulated statistics. Experiments on a challenging realistic biological problem illustrate the potential of these algorithms.