Online detection of instantaneous changes in the generative process of a data sequence generally focuses on retrospective inference of such change points without considering their future occurrences. We extend the Bayesian Online Change Point Detection algorithm to also infer the number of time steps until the next change point (i.e., the residual time). This enables us to handle observation models which depend on the total segment duration, which is useful to model data sequences with temporal scaling. In addition, we extend the model by removing the i.i.d. assumption on the observation model parameters. The resulting inference algorithm for segment detection can be deployed in an online fashion, and we illustrate applications to synthetic and to two medical real-world data sets.
The joint probability in is not only insightful for detecting change points, but can also be used to perform predictions about future observations. The predictive distribution for the next observation (shown in ) is derived by marginalizing over the current run length posterior, which is obtained from . Note that an HSMM (Section ) with a single hidden state @math leads to almost the same generative model of BOCPD. One of the key differences is that the HSMMs are traditionally parameterized in terms of the total segment duration, whereas the BOCPD parameterization is based on the run length through the hazard function instead of the duration model. As hinted earlier, the equivalence between the hazard function and the duration model is well-understood---see @cite_11 for details. However, the chosen parameterization has relevant implications for the UPMs, as discussed in Section .
@cite_11
2135024229 2753034091 2004469928 2161029186
Dynamic Probabilistic Networks (DPNs) are exploited for modeling the temporal relationships among a set of different object temporal events in the scene for a coherent and robust scene-level behaviour interpretation. In particular, we develop a Dynamically Multi-Linked Hidden Markov Model (DML-HMM) to interpret group activities involving multiple objects captured in an outdoor scene. The model is based on the discovery of salient dynamic interlinks among multiple temporal events using DPNs. Object temporal events are detected and labeled using Gaussian Mixture Models with automatic model order selection. A DML-HMM is built using Schwarz's Bayesian Information Criterion based factorisation resulting in its topology being intrinsically determined by the underlying causality and temporal order among different object events. Our experiments demonstrate that its performance on modelling group activities in a noisy outdoor scene is superior compared to that of a Multi-Observation Hidden Markov Model (MOHMM), a Parallel Hidden Markov Model (PaHMM) and a Coupled Hidden Markov Model (CHMM). Segmentation and labeling of high dimensional time series data has wide applications in behavior understanding and medical diagnosis. Due to the difficulty in obtaining the label information for high dimensional data, realizing this objective in an unsupervised way is highly desirable. Hidden Semi-Markov Model (HSMM) is a classical tool for this problem. However, existing HSMM and its variants has simple conditional assumptions of observations, thus the ability to capture the nonlinear and complex dynamics within segments is limited. To tackle this limitation, we propose to incorporate the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) to model the generative process in HSMM, resulting the Recurrent HSMM (R-HSMM). To accelerate the inference while preserving accuracy, we designed a structure encoding function to mimic the exact inference. By generalizing the penalty method to distribution space, we are able to train the model and the encoding function simultaneously. Empirical results show that the proposed R-HSMM achieves the state-of-the-art performances on both synthetic and real-world datasets. Hidden semi-Markov Model (HsMM) has been well studied and widely applied to many areas. The advantage of using an HsMM is its efficient forward-backward algorithm for estimating model parameters to best account for an observed sequence. In this paper, we propose an HsMM to model the distribution of network-wide traffic and use an observation window to distinguish DoS flooding attacks mixed within the normal background traffic. Several experiments are conducted to validate our method. This paper addresses the problem of learning and recognizing human activities of daily living (ADL), which is an important research issue in building a pervasive and smart environment. In dealing with ADL, we argue that it is beneficial to exploit both the inherent hierarchical organization of the activities and their typical duration. To this end, we introduce the switching hidden semi-markov model (S-HSMM), a two-layered extension of the hidden semi-Markov model (HSMM) for the modeling task. Activities are modeled in the S-HSMM in two ways: the bottom layer represents atomic activities and their duration using HSMMs; the top layer represents a sequence of high-level activities where each high-level activity is made of a sequence of atomic activities. We consider two methods for modeling duration: the classic explicit duration model using multinomial distribution, and the novel use of the discrete Coxian distribution. In addition, we propose an effective scheme to detect abnormality without the need for training on abnormal data. Experimental results show that the S-HSMM performs better than existing models including the flat HSMM and the hierarchical hidden Markov model in both classification and abnormality detection tasks, alleviating the need for presegmented training data. Furthermore, our discrete Coxian duration model yields better computation time and generalization error than the classic explicit duration model.