The prediction of periodical time-series remains challenging due to various types of data distortions and misalignments. Here, we propose a novel model called Temporal embedding-enhanced convolutional neural Network (TeNet) to learn repeatedly-occurring-yet-hidden structural elements in periodical time-series, called abstract snippets, for predicting future changes. Our model uses convolutional neural networks and embeds a time-series with its potential neighbors in the temporal domain for aligning it to the dominant patterns in the dataset. The model is robust to distortions and misalignments in the temporal domain and demonstrates strong prediction power for periodical time-series. We conduct extensive experiments and discover that the proposed model shows significant and consistent advantages over existing methods on a variety of data modalities ranging from human mobility to household power consumption records. Empirical results indicate that the model is robust to various factors such as number of samples, variance of data, numerical ranges of data etc. The experiments also verify that the intuition behind the model can be generalized to multiple data types and applications and promises significant improvement in prediction performances across the datasets studied.
Now we consider the periodical time-series prediction problem for data such as daily traveling distances or daily household power consumptions. To tackle this problem, conventionally statistical models such as autoregression and its variants are strongly favored. While in the past decade, realizing there is abstract and structural information beneath the raw numeric values in the time-series, researchers have experimented to discover such patterns by clustering or motif'' discovery @cite_20 @cite_4 @cite_5 . Though conceptually similar, these motifs'' usually are concrete subsequences that are restricted by specific mathematical definitions, which differentiate themselves from the concept of abstract, representative snippets in our paper. However, how to design a method that can find abstract patterns as well as predict future values, that meanwhile is robust to various temporal distortions and misalignment, is yet to be answered. Inspired by the success of convolutional neural networks, we investigate using convolution-based neural networks to address this problem.
@cite_5 @cite_4 @cite_20
2603648311 151863654 2120905266 34835763
textabstractForecasting financial time series using past observations has been a significant topic of interest. While temporal relationships in the data exist, they are difficult to analyze and predict accurately due to the non-linear trends and noise present in the series. We propose to learn these dependencies by a convolutional neural network. In particular the focus is on multivariate time series forecasting. Effectively, we use multiple financial time series as input in the neural network, thus conditioning the forecast of a time series x(t) on both its own history as well as that of a second (or third) time series y(t). Training a model on multiple stock series allows the network to exploit the correlation structure between these series so that the network can learn the market dynamics in shorter sequences of data. We show that long-term temporal dependencies in and between financial time series can be learned by means of a deep convolutional neural network based on the WaveNet model [2]. The network makes use of dilated convolutions applied to multiple time series so that the receptive field of the network is wide enough to learn both short and long-term dependencies. The architecture includes batch normalization and uses a 1 × k convolution with parametrized skip connections from the input time series as well as the time series we condition on, in this way learning long-term interdependencies in an efficient manner [1]. This improves the forecast, while at the same time limiting the requirement for a long historical price series and reducing the noise. Knowing the strong performance of CNNs on classification problems we show that they can be applied successfully to forecasting financial time series, without the need of large samples of data. We compare the performance of the WaveNet model to a state-of-the-art fully convolutional network (FCN), and an autoregressive model popular in econometrics and show that our model is much better able to learn important dependencies in between financial time series resulting in a more robust and accurate forecast. We consider the problem of finding rules relating patterns in a time series to other patterns in that series, or patterns in one series to patterns in another series. A simple example is a rule such as "a period of low telephone call activity is usually followed by a sharp rise in call volume". Examples of rules relating two or more time series are "if the Microsoft stock price goes up and Intel falls, then IBM goes up the next day," and "if Microsoft goes up strongly for one day, then declines strongly on the next day, and on the same days Intel stays about level, then IBM stays about level." Our emphasis is in the discovery of local patterns in multivariate time series, in contrast to traditional time series analysis which largely focuses on global models. Thus, we search for rules whose conditions refer to patterns in time series. However, we do not want to define beforehand which patterns are to be used; rather, we want the patterns to be formed from the data in the context of rule discovery. We describe adaptive methods for finding rules of the above type from time-series data. The methods are based on discretizing the sequence by methods resembling vector quantization. We first form subsequences by sliding a window through the time series, and then cluster these subsequences by using a suitable measure of time-series similarity. The discretized version of the time series is obtained by taking the cluster identifiers corresponding to the subsequence. Once the time-series is discretized, we use simple rule finding methods to obtain rules from the sequence. We present empirical results on the behavior of the method. Discovering recurring patterns in time series data is a fundamental problem for temporal data mining. This paper addresses the problem of locating subdimensional motifs in real-valued, multivariate time series, which requires the simultaneous discovery of sets of recurring patterns along with the corresponding relevant dimensions. While many approaches to motif discovery have been developed, most are restricted to categorical data, univariate time series, or multivariate data in which the temporal patterns span all of the dimensions. In this paper, we present an expected linear-time algorithm that addresses a generalization of multivariate pattern discovery in which each motif may span only a subset of the dimensions. To validate our algorithm, we discuss its theoretical properties and empirically evaluate it using several data sets including synthetic data and motion capture data collected by an on-body iner- tial sensor. The problem of locating motifs in real-valued, multivariate time series data involves the discovery of sets of recurring patterns embedded in the time series. Each set is composed of several non-overlapping subsequences and constitutes a motif because all of the included subsequences are similar. The ability to automatically discover such motifs allows intelligent systems to form endogenously meaningful representations of their environment through unsupervised sensor analysis. In this paper, we formulate a unifying view of motif discovery as a problem of locating regions of high density in the space of all time series subsequences. Our approach is efficient (sub-quadratic in the length of the data), requires fewer user-specified parameters than previous methods, and naturally allows variable length motif occurrences and non-linear temporal warping. We evaluate the performance of our approach using four data sets from different domains including on-body inertial sensors and speech.