The 2016 United States presidential election has been characterized as a period of extreme divisiveness that was exacerbated on social media by the influence of fake news, trolls, and social bots. However, the extent to which the public became more polarized in response to these influences over the course of the election is not well understood. In this paper we propose IdeoTrace, a framework for (i) jointly estimating the ideology of social media users and news websites and (ii) tracing changes in user ideology over time. We apply this framework to the last two months of the election period for a group of 47508 Twitter users and demonstrate that both liberal and conservative users became more polarized over time.
Recent works on estimating the political ideology of social media users include @cite_18 and @cite_47 which infer users' ideology based on the text in their social media posts using an recurrent neural network framework and natural language processing techniques respectively. In @cite_23 , political ideology is inferred by jointly estimating the ideology of Twitter users and the politicians that they follow using a Bayes ideal-point estimation model.
@cite_18 @cite_47 @cite_23
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Numerous papers have reported great success at inferring the political orientation of Twitter users. This paper has some unfortunate news to deliver: while past work has been sound and often methodologically novel, we have discovered that reported accuracies have been systemically overoptimistic due to the way in which validation datasets have been collected, reporting accuracy levels nearly 30 higher than can be expected in populations of general Twitter users. Using careful and novel data collection and annotation techniques, we collected three different sets of Twitter users, each characterizing a different degree of political engagement on Twitter - from politicians (highly politically vocal) to "normal" users (those who rarely discuss politics). Applying standard techniques for inferring political orientation, we show that methods which previously reported greater than 90 inference accuracy, actually achieve barely 65 accuracy on normal users. We also show that classifiers cannot be used to classify users outside the narrow range of political orientation on which they were trained. While a sobering finding, our results quantify and call attention to overlooked problems in the latent attribute inference literature that, no doubt, extend beyond political orientation inference: the way in which datasets are assembled and the transferability of classifiers. We demonstrate that social media data represent a useful resource for testing models of legislative and individual-level political behavior and attitudes. First, we develop a model to estimate the ideology of politicians and their supporters using social media data on individual citizens’ endorsements of political figures. Our measure allows us to place politicians and more than 6 million citizens who are active in social media on the same metric. We validate the ideological estimates that result from the scaling process by showing they correlate highly with existing measures of ideology from Congress, and with individual-level self-reported political views. Finally, we use these measures to study the relationship between ideology and age, social relationships and ideology, and the relationship between friend ideology and turnout. People are shifting from traditional news sources to online news at an incredibly fast rate. However, the technology behind online news consumption promotes content that confirms the users» existing point of view. This phenomenon has led to polarization of opinions and intolerance towards opposing views. Thus, a key problem is to model information filter bubbles on social media and design methods to eliminate them. In this paper, we use a machine-learning approach to learn a liberal-conservative ideology space on Twitter, and show how we can use the learned latent space to tackle the filter bubble problem. We model the problem of learning the liberal-conservative ideology space of social media users and media sources as a constrained non-negative matrix-factorization problem. Our model incorporates the social-network structure and content-consumption information in a joint factorization problem with shared latent factors. We validate our model and solution on a real-world Twitter dataset consisting of controversial topics, and show that we are able to separate users by ideology with over 90 purity. When applied to media sources, our approach estimates ideology scores that are highly correlated(Pearson correlation 0.9) with ground-truth ideology scores. Finally, we demonstrate the utility of our model in real-world scenarios, by illustrating how the learned ideology latent space can be used to develop exploratory and interactive interfaces that can help users in diffusing their information filter bubble. An individual’s words often reveal their political ideology. Existing automated techniques to identify ideology from text focus on bags of words or wordlists, ignoring syntax. Taking inspiration from recent work in sentiment analysis that successfully models the compositional aspect of language, we apply a recursive neural network (RNN) framework to the task of identifying the political position evinced by a sentence. To show the importance of modeling subsentential elements, we crowdsource political annotations at a phrase and sentence level. Our model outperforms existing models on our newly annotated dataset and an existing dataset.