Gang violence is a severe issue in major cities across the U.S. and recent studies [ 2017] have found evidence of social media communications that can be linked to such violence in communities with high rates of exposure to gang activity. In this paper we partnered computer scientists with social work researchers, who have domain expertise in gang violence, to analyze how public tweets with images posted by youth who mention gang associations on Twitter can be leveraged to automatically detect psychosocial factors and conditions that could potentially assist social workers and violence outreach workers in prevention and early intervention programs. To this end, we developed a rigorous methodology for collecting and annotating tweets. We gathered 1,851 tweets and accompanying annotations related to visual concepts and the psychosocial codes: aggression, loss, and substance use. These codes are relevant to social work interventions, as they represent possible pathways to violence on social media. We compare various methods for classifying tweets into these three classes, using only the text of the tweet, only the image of the tweet, or both modalities as input to the classifier. In particular, we analyze the usefulness of mid-level visual concepts and the role of different modalities for this tweet classification task. Our experiments show that individually, text information dominates classification performance of the loss class, while image information dominates the aggression and substance use classes. Our multimodal approach provides a very promising improvement (18 relative in mean average precision) over the best single modality approach. Finally, we also illustrate the complexity of understanding social media data and elaborate on open challenges.
In @cite_28 , Gerber uses statistical topic modeling on tweets that have geolocation to predict how likely 20 different types of crimes are to happen in individual cells of a grid that covers the city of Chicago. This work is a large scale approach for predicting future crime locations, while we detect codes in individual tweets related to future violence. Another important difference is that @cite_28 is meant to assist criminal justice decision makers, whereas our efforts are community based and have solid grounding in social work research.
@cite_28
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Twitter is used extensively in the United States as well as globally, creating many opportunities to augment decision support systems with Twitterdriven predictive analytics. Twitter is an ideal data source for decision support: its users, who number in the millions, publicly discuss events, emotions, and innumerable other topics; its content is authored and distributed in real time at no charge; and individual messages (also known as tweets) are often tagged with precise spatial and temporal coordinates. This article presents research investigating the use of spatiotemporally tagged tweets for crime prediction. We use Twitter-specific linguistic analysis and statistical topic modeling to automatically identify discussion topics across a major city in the United States. We then incorporate these topics into a crime prediction model and show that, for 19 of the 25 crime types we studied, the addition of Twitter data improves crime prediction performance versus a standard approach based on kernel density estimation. We identify a number of performance bottlenecks that could impact the use of Twitter in an actual decision support system. We also point out important areas of future work for this research, including deeper semantic analysis of message con Prior work on criminal incident prediction has relied primarily on the historical crime record and various geospatial and demographic information sources. Although promising, these models do not take into account the rich and rapidly expanding social media context that surrounds incidents of interest. This paper presents a preliminary investigation of Twitter-based criminal incident prediction. Our approach is based on the automatic semantic analysis and understanding of natural language Twitter posts, combined with dimensionality reduction via latent Dirichlet allocation and prediction via linear modeling. We tested our model on the task of predicting future hit-and-run crimes. Evaluation results indicate that the model comfortably outperforms a baseline model that predicts hit-and-run incidents uniformly across all days. This study proposes a street-level space‐time hotspot detection method to analyse crime incidents recorded at the street-address level and provides description of the micro-level variation of crime incidents over space and time. It expands the notion of search-window techniques widely used in crime science by developing a method that can account for the spatial‐temporal distribution of crime incidents measured in network distance. The study first describes the methodological framework by presenting the concept of a new type of search window and how it is used in the process of statistical testing for detecting crime hotspots. This is followed by analyses using 1 a simulated distribution of points along the street network, and 2 a set of real street-crime incident data. The simulation study demonstrates that the proposed method is effective in identifying space‐time hotspots, which include those that are not detected by a non-temporal method. The empirical analysis of the drug markets and assaults in downtown Buffalo, New York, revealed a detailed space‐time signature of each type of crime, highlighting the recurrent nature of drug dealing at specific locations as well as the sporadic tendency of assault incidents. Advancements in mobile technology and computing have fostered the collection of a large number of civic datasets that capture the pulse of urban life. Furthermore, the open government and data initiative has led many local authorities to make these datasets publicly available, hoping to drive innovation that will further improve the quality of life for the city-dwellers. In this paper, we develop a novel application that utilizes crime data to provide safe urban navigation. Specifically, using crime data from Chicago and Philadelphia we develop a risk model for their street urban network, which allows us to estimate the relative probability of a crime on any road segment. Given such model we define two variants of the SafePaths problem where the goal is to find a short and low-risk path between a source and a destination location. Since both the length and the risk of the path are equally important but cannot be combined into a single objective, we approach the urban-navigation problem as a biobjective shortest path problem. Our algorithms aim to output a small set of paths that provide tradeoffs between distance and safety. Our experiments demonstrate the efficacy of our algorithms and their practical applicability.