We analyze learning data of an e-assessment platform for an introductory mathematical statistics course, more specifically the time of the day when students learn. We propose statistical models to predict students' success and to describe their behavior with a special focus on the following aspects. First, we find that learning during daytime and not at nighttime is a relevant variable for predicting success in final exams. Second, we observe that good and very good students tend to learn in the afternoon, while some students who failed our course were more likely to study at night but not successfully so. Third, we discuss the average time spent on exercises. Regarding this, students who participated in an exam spent more time doing exercises than students who dropped the course before.
In contrast to previous studies which mostly rely on quantitative and qualitative learning activity measured by time-invariant variables, there is also a temporal dimension of engagement which has been studied from different perspectives throughout the academic literature. @cite_4 use time-dependent information provided by a learning management system to predict academic performance. @cite_5 incorporate students' response time as an additional feature into a random forest to investigate the predictive capability for students' performance and find evidence that it can indeed improve prediction accuracy. @cite_0 and @cite_10 further elaborate on the latter by using more sophisticated techniques and are able to support the preceding result.
@cite_0 @cite_5 @cite_4 @cite_10
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Earlier studies have suggested that higher education institutions could harness the predictive power of Learning Management System (LMS) data to develop reporting tools that identify at-risk students and allow for more timely pedagogical interventions. This paper confirms and extends this proposition by providing data from an international research project investigating which student online activities accurately predict academic achievement. Analysis of LMS tracking data from a Blackboard Vista-supported course identified 15 variables demonstrating a significant simple correlation with student final grade. Regression modelling generated a best-fit predictive model for this course which incorporates key variables such as total number of discussion messages posted, total number of mail messages sent, and total number of assessments completed and which explains more than 30 of the variation in student final grade. Logistic modelling demonstrated the predictive power of this model, which correctly identified 81 of students who achieved a failing grade. Moreover, network analysis of course discussion forums afforded insight into the development of the student learning community by identifying disconnected students, patterns of student-to-student communication, and instructor positioning within the network. This study affirms that pedagogically meaningful information can be extracted from LMS-generated student tracking data, and discusses how these findings are informing the development of a customizable dashboard-like reporting tool for educators that will extract and visualize real-time data on student engagement and likelihood of success. Machine learning research has, to a great extent, ignored an important aspect of many real world applications: time. Existing concept learners predominantly operate on a static set of attributes; for example, classifying flowers described by leaf size, pet al colour and pet al count. However, many real datasets are not static; they cannot sensibly be represented as a fixed set of attributes. Rather, the examples are expressed as features that vary temporally, and it is the temporal variation itself that is used for classification. Consider a simple gesture recognition domain, in which the temporal features are the position of the hands, finger bends, and so on. Looking at the position of the hand at one point in time is not likely to lead to a successful classification; it is only by analysing changes in position that recognition is possible. This thesis presents a new technique for temporal classification. By extracting sub-events from the training instances and parameterising them to allow feature construction for a subsequent learning process, it is able to employ background knowledge and express learnt concepts in terms of the background knowledge. The novel results of the thesis are: a temporal learner capable of producing comprehensible and accurate classifiers for multivariate time series that can learn from a small number of instances and can integrate non-temporal features; a feature construction technique that parameterises sub-events of the training set and clusters them to construct features for a propositional learner; and a technique for post-processing classification rules produced by the learner to give a comprehensible description expressed in the same form as the original background knowledge. The thesis discusses the implementation of TClass, a temporal learner. Results show rules that are comprehensible in many cases and accuracy results close to or better than existing technique—over 98 per cent for sign language and 72 per cent for ECGs (equivalent to the accuracy of a human cardiologist). One further surprising result is that a small set of very primitive sub-events proves to be functional, avoiding the need for labour-intensive background knowledge if it is not available. We develop early warning systems to predict at-risk students while a course is in progress.Learning portfolios from a fully online course are evaluated by data mining techniques.The results show that CART supplemented by AdaBoost has the best classification performance.Time-dependent variables are essential to identify student online learning performance. An early warning system can help to identify at-risk students, or predict student learning performance by analyzing learning portfolios recorded in a learning management system (LMS). Although previous studies have shown the applicability of determining learner behaviors from an LMS, most investigated datasets are not assembled from online learning courses or from whole learning activities undertaken on courses that can be analyzed to evaluate students' academic achievement. Previous studies generally focus on the construction of predictors for learner performance evaluation after a course has ended, and neglect the practical value of an "early warning" system to predict at-risk students while a course is in progress. We collected the complete learning activities of an online undergraduate course and applied data-mining techniques to develop an early warning system. Our results showed that, time-dependent variables extracted from LMS are critical factors for online learning. After students have used an LMS for a period of time, our early warning system effectively characterizes their current learning performance. Data-mining techniques are useful in the construction of early warning systems; based on our experimental results, classification and regression tree (CART), supplemented by AdaBoost is the best classifier for the evaluation of learning performance investigated by this study. All forms of learning take time. There is a large body of research suggesting that the amount of time spent on learning can improve the quality of learning, as represented by academic performance. The wide-spread adoption of learning technologies such as learning management systems (LMSs), has resulted in large amounts of data about student learning being readily accessible to educational researchers. One common use of this data is to measure time that students have spent on different learning tasks (i.e., time-on-task). Given that LMS systems typically only capture times when students executed various actions, time-on-task measures are estimated based on the recorded trace data. LMS trace data has been extensively used in many studies in the field of learning analytics, yet the problem of time-on-task estimation is rarely described in detail and the consequences that it entails are not fully examined. This paper presents the results of a study that examined the effects of different time-on-task estimation methods on the results of commonly adopted analytical models. The primary goal of this paper is to raise awareness of the issue of accuracy and appropriateness surrounding time-estimation within the broader learning analytics community, and to initiate a debate about the challenges of this process. Furthermore, the paper provides an overview of time-on-task estimation methods in educational and related research fields.