Fitting high-dimensional statistical models often requires the use of non-linear parameter estimation procedures. As a consequence, it is generally impossible to obtain an exact characterization of the probability distribution of the parameter estimates. This in turn implies that it is extremely challenging to quantify the associated with a certain parameter estimate. Concretely, no commonly accepted procedure exists for computing classical measures of uncertainty and statistical significance as confidence intervals or @math -values for these models. We consider here high-dimensional linear regression problem, and propose an efficient algorithm for constructing confidence intervals and @math -values. The resulting confidence intervals have nearly optimal size. When testing for the null hypothesis that a certain parameter is vanishing, our method has nearly optimal power. Our approach is based on constructing a de-biased' version of regularized M-estimators. The new construction improves over recent work in the field in that it does not assume a special structure on the design matrix. We test our method on synthetic data and a high-throughput genomic data set about riboflavin production rate.
Belloni, Chernozhukov and collaborators @cite_26 @cite_45 consider inference in a regression model with high-dimensional data. In this model the response variable relates to a scalar main regressor and a @math -dimensional control vector. The main regressor is of primary interest and the control vector is treated as nuisance component. Assuming that the control vector is @math -sparse, the authors propose a method to construct confidence regions for the parameter of interest under the sample size requirement @math . The proposed method is shown to attain the semi-parametric efficiency bounds for this class of models. The key modeling assumption in this paper is that the scalar regressor of interest is random, and depends linearly on the @math -dimensional control vector, with a sparse coefficient vector (with sparsity again of order @math . This assumption is closely related to the sparse inverse covariance assumption of @cite_48 (with the difference that only one regressor is tested).
@cite_48 @cite_26 @cite_45
2949399223 2949962875 2930033329 1664169458
We propose robust methods for inference on the effect of a treatment variable on a scalar outcome in the presence of very many controls. Our setting is a partially linear model with possibly non-Gaussian and heteroscedastic disturbances. Our analysis allows the number of controls to be much larger than the sample size. To make informative inference feasible, we require the model to be approximately sparse; that is, we require that the effect of confounding factors can be controlled for up to a small approximation error by conditioning on a relatively small number of controls whose identities are unknown. The latter condition makes it possible to estimate the treatment effect by selecting approximately the right set of controls. We develop a novel estimation and uniformly valid inference method for the treatment effect in this setting, called the "post-double-selection" method. Our results apply to Lasso-type methods used for covariate selection as well as to any other model selection method that is able to find a sparse model with good approximation properties. The main attractive feature of our method is that it allows for imperfect selection of the controls and provides confidence intervals that are valid uniformly across a large class of models. In contrast, standard post-model selection estimators fail to provide uniform inference even in simple cases with a small, fixed number of controls. Thus our method resolves the problem of uniform inference after model selection for a large, interesting class of models. We illustrate the use of the developed methods with numerical simulations and an application to the effect of abortion on crime rates. In sparse principal component analysis we are given noisy observations of a low-rank matrix of dimension @math and seek to reconstruct it under additional sparsity assumptions. In particular, we assume here each of the principal components @math has at most @math non-zero entries. We are particularly interested in the high dimensional regime wherein @math is comparable to, or even much larger than @math . In an influential paper, johnstone2004sparse introduced a simple algorithm that estimates the support of the principal vectors @math by the largest entries in the diagonal of the empirical covariance. This method can be shown to identify the correct support with high probability if @math , and to fail with high probability if @math for two constants @math . Despite a considerable amount of work over the last ten years, no practical algorithm exists with provably better support recovery guarantees. Here we analyze a covariance thresholding algorithm that was recently proposed by KrauthgamerSPCA . On the basis of numerical simulations (for the rank-one case), these authors conjectured that covariance thresholding correctly recover the support with high probability for @math (assuming @math of the same order as @math ). We prove this conjecture, and in fact establish a more general guarantee including higher-rank as well as @math much smaller than @math . Recent lower bounds berthet2013computational, ma2015sum suggest that no polynomial time algorithm can do significantly better. The key technical component of our analysis develops new bounds on the norm of kernel random matrices, in regimes that were not considered before. We consider inference about a scalar parameter under a non-parametric model based on a one-step estimator computed as a plug in estimator plus the empirical mean of an estimator of the parameter's influence function. We focus on a class of parameters that have influence function which depends on two infinite dimensional nuisance functions and such that the bias of the one-step estimator of the parameter of interest is the expectation of the product of the estimation errors of the two nuisance functions. Our class includes many important treatment effect contrasts of interest in causal inference and econometrics, such as ATE, ATT, an integrated causal contrast with a continuous treatment, and the mean of an outcome missing not at random. We propose estimators of the target parameter that entertain approximately sparse regression models for the nuisance functions allowing for the number of potential confounders to be even larger than the sample size. By employing sample splitting, cross-fitting and @math -regularized regression estimators of the nuisance functions based on objective functions whose directional derivatives agree with those of the parameter's influence function, we obtain estimators of the target parameter with two desirable robustness properties: (1) they are rate doubly-robust in that they are root-n consistent and asymptotically normal when both nuisance functions follow approximately sparse models, even if one function has a very non-sparse regression coefficient, so long as the other has a sufficiently sparse regression coefficient, and (2) they are model doubly-robust in that they are root-n consistent and asymptotically normal even if one of the nuisance functions does not follow an approximately sparse model so long as the other nuisance function follows an approximately sparse model with a sufficiently sparse regression coefficient. We consider high dimensional sparse regression, and develop strategies able to deal with arbitrary -- possibly, severe or coordinated -- errors in the covariance matrix @math . These may come from corrupted data, persistent experimental errors, or malicious respondents in surveys recommender systems, etc. Such non-stochastic error-in-variables problems are notoriously difficult to treat, and as we demonstrate, the problem is particularly pronounced in high-dimensional settings where the primary goal is support recovery of the sparse regressor. We develop algorithms for support recovery in sparse regression, when some number @math out of @math total covariate response pairs are arbitrarily (possibly maliciously) corrupted . We are interested in understanding how many outliers, @math , we can tolerate, while identifying the correct support. To the best of our knowledge, neither standard outlier rejection techniques, nor recently developed robust regression algorithms (that focus only on corrupted response variables), nor recent algorithms for dealing with stochastic noise or erasures, can provide guarantees on support recovery. Perhaps surprisingly, we also show that the natural brute force algorithm that searches over all subsets of @math covariate response pairs, and all subsets of possible support coordinates in order to minimize regression error, is remarkably poor, unable to correctly identify the support with even @math corrupted points, where @math is the sparsity. This is true even in the basic setting we consider, where all authentic measurements and noise are independent and sub-Gaussian. In this setting, we provide a simple algorithm -- no more computationally taxing than OMP -- that gives stronger performance guarantees, recovering the support with up to @math corrupted points, where @math is the dimension of the signal to be recovered.