In this paper, we study the accuracy of values aggregated over classes predicted by a classification algorithm. The problem is that the resulting aggregates (e.g., sums of a variable) are known to be biased. The bias can be large even for highly accurate classification algorithms, in particular when dealing with class-imbalanced data. To correct this bias, the algorithm's classification error rates have to be estimated. In this estimation, two issues arise when applying existing bias correction methods. First, inaccuracies in estimating classification error rates have to be taken into account. Second, impermissible estimates, such as a negative estimate for a positive value, have to be dismissed. We show that both issues are relevant in applications where the true labels are known only for a small set of data points. We propose a novel bias correction method using Bayesian inference. The novelty of our method is that it imposes constraints on the model parameters. We show that our method solves the problem of biased classification-based aggregates as well as the two issues above, in the general setting of multi-class classification. In the empirical evaluation, using a binary classifier on a real-world dataset of company tax returns, we show that our method outperforms existing methods in terms of mean squared error.
Assume that the classes @math are not known, but instead predicted to be @math . The predicted class matrix based on the predictions @math is denoted by @math . Similarly, @math denotes the predicted counts vector. Assume that @math is known for all @math . The goal is to estimate the sum of @math over each of the classes @math . In other words, the main problem statement is how to find, using the predicted @math and the known @math , an accurate estimator of the In the sentiment analysis application from before, the set @math is the set of messages and @math is binary (a positive or negative message). Each @math equals 1 and hence @math is a 2-vector with @math the number of positive messages and @math the number of negative messages. In the land cover mapping application obtained from @cite_2 , each @math is a pixel and @math may attain @math different values. The value @math is the real land area corresponding to pixel @math . Hence, the 15-vector @math contains the total land area of each of the 15 land cover classes.
@cite_2
2077306951 2766371994 2537174396 1998269045
We consider the problem of estimating an unknown signal @math from noisy linear observations @math . In many practical instances, @math has a certain structure that can be captured by a structure inducing convex function @math . For example, @math norm can be used to encourage a sparse solution. To estimate @math with the aid of @math , we consider the well-known LASSO method and provide sharp characterization of its performance. We assume the entries of the measurement matrix @math and the noise vector @math have zero-mean normal distributions with variances @math and @math respectively. For the LASSO estimator @math , we attempt to calculate the Normalized Square Error (NSE) defined as @math as a function of the noise level @math , the number of observations @math and the structure of the signal. We show that, the structure of the signal @math and choice of the function @math enter the error formulae through the summary parameters @math and @math , which are defined as the Gaussian squared-distances to the subdifferential cone and to the @math -scaled subdifferential, respectively. The first LASSO estimator assumes a-priori knowledge of @math and is given by @math . We prove that its worst case NSE is achieved when @math and concentrates around @math . Secondly, we consider @math , for some @math . This time the NSE formula depends on the choice of @math and is given by @math . We then establish a mapping between this and the third estimator @math . Finally, for a number of important structured signal classes, we translate our abstract formulae to closed-form upper bounds on the NSE. We consider the problem of learning a one-hidden-layer neural network: we assume the input @math is from Gaussian distribution and the label @math , where @math is a nonnegative vector in @math with @math , @math is a full-rank weight matrix, and @math is a noise vector. We first give an analytic formula for the population risk of the standard squared loss and demonstrate that it implicitly attempts to decompose a sequence of low-rank tensors simultaneously. Inspired by the formula, we design a non-convex objective function @math whose landscape is guaranteed to have the following properties: 1. All local minima of @math are also global minima. 2. All global minima of @math correspond to the ground truth parameters. 3. The value and gradient of @math can be estimated using samples. With these properties, stochastic gradient descent on @math provably converges to the global minimum and learn the ground-truth parameters. We also prove finite sample complexity result and validate the results by simulations. This paper considers recovering @math -dimensional vectors @math , and @math from their circular convolutions @math . The vector @math is assumed to be @math -sparse in a known basis that is spread out in the Fourier domain, and each input @math is a member of a known @math -dimensional random subspace. We prove that whenever @math , the problem can be solved effectively by using only the nuclear-norm minimization as the convex relaxation, as long as the inputs are sufficiently diverse and obey @math . By “diverse inputs,” we mean that the @math ’s belong to different, generic subspaces. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first theoretical result on blind deconvolution where the subspace to which @math belongs is not fixed but needs to be determined. We discuss the result in the context of multipath channel estimation in wireless communications. Both the fading coefficients and the delays in the channel impulse response @math are unknown. The encoder codes the @math -dimensional message vectors randomly and then transmits coded messages @math ’s over a fixed channel one after the other. The decoder then discovers all of the messages and the channel response when the number of samples taken for each received message are roughly greater than @math , and the number of messages is roughly at least @math . Many data analysis applications deal with large matrices and involve approximating the matrix using a small number of “components.” Typically, these components are linear combinations of the rows and columns of the matrix, and are thus difficult to interpret in terms of the original features of the input data. In this paper, we propose and study matrix approximations that are explicitly expressed in terms of a small number of columns and or rows of the data matrix, and thereby more amenable to interpretation in terms of the original data. Our main algorithmic results are two randomized algorithms which take as input an @math matrix @math and a rank parameter @math . In our first algorithm, @math is chosen, and we let @math , where @math is the Moore-Penrose generalized inverse of @math . In our second algorithm @math , @math , @math are chosen, and we let @math . ( @math and @math are matrices that consist of actual columns and rows, respectively, of @math , and @math is a generalized inverse of their intersection.) For each algorithm, we show that with probability at least @math , @math , where @math is the “best” rank- @math approximation provided by truncating the SVD of @math , and where @math is the Frobenius norm of the matrix @math . The number of columns of @math and rows of @math is a low-degree polynomial in @math , @math , and @math . Both the Numerical Linear Algebra community and the Theoretical Computer Science community have studied variants of these matrix decompositions over the last ten years. However, our two algorithms are the first polynomial time algorithms for such low-rank matrix approximations that come with relative-error guarantees; previously, in some cases, it was not even known whether such matrix decompositions exist. Both of our algorithms are simple and they take time of the order needed to approximately compute the top @math singular vectors of @math . The technical crux of our analysis is a novel, intuitive sampling method we introduce in this paper called “subspace sampling.” In subspace sampling, the sampling probabilities depend on the Euclidean norms of the rows of the top singular vectors. This allows us to obtain provable relative-error guarantees by deconvoluting “subspace” information and “size-of- @math ” information in the input matrix. This technique is likely to be useful for other matrix approximation and data analysis problems.