Given key performance indicators collected with fine granularity as time series, our aim is to predict and explain failures in storage environments. Although explainable predictive modeling based on spiky telemetry data is key in many domains, current approaches cannot tackle this problem. Deep learning methods suitable for sequence modeling and learning temporal dependencies, such as RNNs, are effective, but opaque from an explainability perspective. Our approach first extracts the anomalous spikes from time series as events and then builds an RNN classifier with attention mechanisms to embed the irregularity and frequency of these events. A preliminary evaluation on real world storage environments shows that our approach can predict failures within a 3-day prediction window with comparable accuracy as traditional RNN-based classifiers. At the same time it can explain the predictions by returning the key anomalous events which led to those failure predictions.
aim to provide local explanations for specific decisions, rather than attempting to explain the whole system behavior. One of the most representative examples for classification in recent years is LIME @cite_1 . The approach is simple: generate an explanation by approximating the underlying model by an interpretable one (e.g., a linear model with a only a few non-zero coefficients), learned on perturbations of the original instance. Typical perturbations can be removing words or hiding parts of an image. A similar model-agnostic approach is BETA @cite_21 , which optimizes for fidelity to the black-box model and interpretability of the explanation. @cite_0 focuses on pixel-wise decomposition of nonlinear classifiers, which allows to visualize contributions of single pixels to predictions for kernel-based classifiers. @cite_23 extracts explanations from latent factor recommendation systems by training association rules on the output of a matrix factorization black-box model. All approaches have been applied on text and images, but are not built to take into consideration temporal progressions in time or event series.
@cite_0 @cite_21 @cite_1 @cite_23
2808925008 2949467366 2962759300 2785269845
The widescale use of machine learning algorithms to drive decision-making has highlighted the critical importance of ensuring the interpretability of such models in order to engender trust in their output. The state-of-the-art recommendation systems use black-box latent factor models that provide no explanation of why a recommendation has been made, as they abstract their decision processes to a high-dimensional latent space which is beyond the direct comprehension of humans. We propose a novel approach for extracting explanations from latent factor recommendation systems by training association rules on the output of a matrix factorisation black-box model. By taking advantage of the interpretable structure of association rules, we demonstrate that predictive accuracy of the recommendation model can be maintained whilst yielding explanations with high fidelity to the black-box model on a unique industry dataset. Our approach mitigates the accuracy-interpretability trade-off whilst avoiding the need to sacrifice flexibility or use external data sources. We also contribute to the ill-defined problem of evaluating interpretability. Clearly explaining a rationale for a classification decision to an end-user can be as important as the decision itself. Existing approaches for deep visual recognition are generally opaque and do not output any justification text; contemporary vision-language models can describe image content but fail to take into account class-discriminative image aspects which justify visual predictions. We propose a new model that focuses on the discriminating properties of the visible object, jointly predicts a class label, and explains why the predicted label is appropriate for the image. We propose a novel loss function based on sampling and reinforcement learning that learns to generate sentences that realize a global sentence property, such as class specificity. Our results on a fine-grained bird species classification dataset show that our model is able to generate explanations which are not only consistent with an image but also more discriminative than descriptions produced by existing captioning methods. Adversarial perturbations of normal images are usually imperceptible to humans, but they can seriously confuse state-of-the-art machine learning models. What makes them so special in the eyes of image classifiers? In this paper, we show empirically that adversarial examples mainly lie in the low probability regions of the training distribution, regardless of attack types and targeted models. Using statistical hypothesis testing, we find that modern neural density models are surprisingly good at detecting imperceptible image perturbations. Based on this discovery, we devised PixelDefend, a new approach that purifies a maliciously perturbed image by moving it back towards the distribution seen in the training data. The purified image is then run through an unmodified classifier, making our method agnostic to both the classifier and the attacking method. As a result, PixelDefend can be used to protect already deployed models and be combined with other model-specific defenses. Experiments show that our method greatly improves resilience across a wide variety of state-of-the-art attacking methods, increasing accuracy on the strongest attack from 63 to 84 for Fashion MNIST and from 32 to 70 for CIFAR-10. CNNs are poised to become integral parts of many critical systems. Despite their robustness to natural variations, image pixel values can be manipulated, via small, carefully crafted, imperceptible perturbations, to cause a model to misclassify images. We present an algorithm to process an image so that classification accuracy is significantly preserved in the presence of such adversarial manipulations. Image classifiers tend to be robust to natural noise, and adversarial attacks tend to be agnostic to object location. These observations motivate our strategy, which leverages model robustness to defend against adversarial perturbations by forcing the image to match natural image statistics. Our algorithm locally corrupts the image by redistributing pixel values via a process we term pixel deflection. A subsequent wavelet-based denoising operation softens this corruption, as well as some of the adversarial changes. We demonstrate experimentally that the combination of these techniques enables the effective recovery of the true class, against a variety of robust attacks. Our results compare favorably with current state-of-the-art defenses, without requiring retraining or modifying the CNN.