To manage and maintain large-scale cellular networks, operators need to know which sectors underperform at any given time. For this purpose, they use the so-called hot spot score, which is the result of a combination of multiple network measurements and reflects the instantaneous overall performance of individual sectors. While operators have a good understanding of the current performance of a network and its overall trend, forecasting the performance of each sector over time is a challenging task, as it is affected by both regular and non-regular events, triggered by human behavior and hardware failures. In this paper, we study the spatio-temporal patterns of the hot spot score and uncover its regularities. Based on our observations, we then explore the possibility to use recent measurements' history to predict future hot spots. To this end, we consider tree-based machine learning models, and study their performance as a function of time, amount of past data, and prediction horizon. Our results indicate that, compared to the best baseline, tree-based models can deliver up to 14 better forecasts for regular hot spots and 153 better forecasts for non-regular hot spots. The latter brings strong evidence that, for moderate horizons, forecasts can be made even for sectors exhibiting isolated, non-regular behavior. Overall, our work provides insight into the dynamics of cellular sectors and their predictability. It also paves the way for more proactive network operations with greater forecasting horizons.
A few further research papers have been written in an attempt to understand how load evolves in cellular networks. For instance, Paul et al. @cite_12 analyzed the spatio-temporal behavior of network resource usage in a real 3G network. Interestingly, their results indicate that aggregate network usage exhibits periodic behavior, but individual sectors do not exhibit such properties (however, in @cite_20 , Jiang et al. do find such correlations in KPIs). The usage of individual applications in cellular data networks has been studied by @cite_14 . Finally, simulation has been also used to quantify hot spots in wireless cellular networks @cite_11 . None of the previous works considers real performance hot spots nor provides any forecasting methodology.
@cite_14 @cite_20 @cite_12 @cite_11
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With a proliferation of new mobile data services, the complexity of wireless mobile networks is rapidly growing. While large amount of operational monitoring data such as performance measurement statistics is available, it is a great challenge to correlate such data effectively for real time performance analysis. Meantime, the dynamics of mobile applications and environments introduce another dimension of complexity for us to track the evolving system status. In this paper, we analyze the spatial and temporal correlations of Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) to track and interpret the operational status of wide-area cellular systems. We first correlate large number of raw measurements into limited number of KPIs. Further we exploit spatial and temporal correlations of these KPIs for cellular network management. We use large volume of field data collected from real cellular systems in our analysis. Experimental results demonstrate that it is promising to build a real-time data management and support system by effectively correlating KPIs. Significant geospatial and temporal correlations, in terms of traffic volume and application access, exist in cellular network usage as shown in recent studies on cellular network measurement. Such geospatial and temporal correlation patterns provide local optimization opportunities to cellular network operators for handling the explosive growth in the traffic volume observed in recent years. To the best of our knowledge, in this paper, we provide the first fine-grained joint characterization of the geospatial and temporal dynamics of application usage in a 3G cellular data network. Our analysis is based on two simultaneously collected traces from the radio access network (containing location records) and the core network (containing traffic records) of a tier-1 cellular network in the United States. To better understand the application usage in our data, we first cluster cell locations based on their application distributions and then study the geospatial and temporal dynamics of application usage across different geographical regions. The results of our measurement study present cellular network operators with fine-grained insights that can be leveraged to tune network parameter settings for better network performance and user experience. During crowded events, cellular networks face voice and data traffic volumes that are often orders of magnitude higher than what they face during routine days. Despite the use of portable base stations for temporarily increasing communication capacity and free Wi-Fi access points for offloading Internet traffic from cellular base stations, crowded events still present significant challenges for cellular network operators looking to reduce dropped call events and improve Internet speeds. For effective cellular network design, management, and optimization, it is crucial to understand how cellular network performance degrades during crowded events, what causes this degradation, and how practical mitigation schemes would perform in real-life crowded events. This paper makes a first step towards this end by characterizing the operational performance of a tier-1 cellular network in the United States during two high-profile crowded events in 2012. We illustrate how the changes in population distribution, user behavior, and application workload during crowded events result in significant voice and data performance degradation, including more than two orders of magnitude increase in connection failures. Our findings suggest two mechanisms that can improve performance without resorting to costly infrastructure changes: radio resource allocation tuning and opportunistic connection sharing. Using trace-driven simulations, we show that more aggressive release of radio resources via 1-2 seconds shorter RRC timeouts as compared to routine days helps to achieve better tradeoff between wasted radio resources, energy consumption, and delay during crowded events; and opportunistic connection sharing can reduce connection failures by 95 when employed by a small number of devices in each cell sector. We investigate a wireless system of multiple cells, each having a downlink shared channel in support of high-speed packet data services. In practice, such a system consists of hierarchically organized entities including a central server, Base Stations (BSs), and Mobile Stations (MSs). Our goal is to improve global resource utilization and reduce regional congestion given asymmetric arrivals and departures of mobile users, a goal requiring load balancing among multiple cells. For this purpose, we propose a scalable cross-layer framework to coordinate packet-level scheduling, call-level cell-site selection and handoff, and system-level cell coverage based on load, throughput, and channel measurements. In this framework, an opportunistic scheduling algorithm--the weighted Alpha-Rule--exploits the gain of multiuser diversity in each cell independently, trading aggregate (mean) down-link throughput for fairness and minimum rate guarantees among MSs. Each MS adapts to its channel dynamics and the load fluctuations in neighboring cells, in accordance with MSs' mobility or their arrival and departure, by initiating load-aware handoff and cell-site selection. The central server adjusts schedulers of all cells to coordinate their coverage by prompting cell breathing or distributed MS handoffs. Across the whole system, BSs and MSs constantly monitor their load, throughput, or channel quality in order to facilitate the overall system coordination. Our specific contributions in such a framework are highlighted by the minimum-rate guaranteed weighted Alpha-Rule scheduling, the load-aware MS handoff cell-site selection, and the Media Access Control (MAC)-layer cell breathing. Our evaluations show that the proposed framework can improve global resource utilization and load balancing, resulting in a smaller blocking rate of MS arrivals without extra resources while the aggregate throughput remains roughly the same or improved at the hot-spots. Our simulation tests also show that the coordinated system is robust to dynamic load fluctuations and is scalable to both the system dimension and the size of MS population.