Infrastructure as a service clouds hide the complexity of maintaining the physical infrastructure with a slight disadvantage: they also hide their internal working details. Should users need knowledge about these details e.g., to increase the reliability or performance of their applications, they would need solutions to detect behavioural changes in the underlying system. Existing runtime solutions for such purposes offer limited capabilities as they are mostly restricted to revealing weekly or yearly behavioural periodicity in the infrastructure. This article proposes a technique for predicting generic background workload by means of simulations that are capable of providing additional knowledge of the underlying private cloud systems in order to support activities like cloud orchestration or workflow enactment. Our technique uses long-running scientific workflows and their behaviour discrepancies and tries to replicate these in a simulated cloud with known (trace-based) workloads. We argue that the better we can mimic the current discrepancies the better we can tell expected workloads in the near future on the real life cloud. We evaluated the proposed prediction approach with a biochemical application on both real and simulated cloud infrastructures. The proposed algorithm has shown to produce significantly ( 20 ) better workload predictions for the future of simulated clouds than random workload selection.
@cite_15 offers cloud workload prediction based on autoregressive integrated moving average. They argue that proactive dynamic provisioning of resources could achieve good quality of service. Their model's accuracy is evaluated by predicting future workloads of real request traces to web servers. Additionally, @cite_3 developed a workload model for the CloudSim simulator using generalised extreme value lambda distributions. This model captures user behavioural patterns and supports the simulation of resource utilisation in clouds. They argue that user behaviour must be considered in workload modelling to reflect realistic conditions. Our approach share this view: we apply a runtime behaviour analysis to find a workflow enactment plan that best matches the infrastructure load including user activities.
@cite_15 @cite_3
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We model a web application to support analysis and simulation of cloud environments.We implement the model as an extension of the CloudSim simulator.We found that the user behavior has a strong influence on the resource utilization.We found Generalized Extreme Value and Generalized Lambda distributions instead of Exponential distribution to represent session time. Display Omitted Workload modeling enables performance analysis and simulation of cloud resource management policies, which allows cloud providers to improve their systems' Quality of Service (QoS) and researchers to evaluate new policies without deploying expensive large scale environments. However, workload modeling is challenging in the context of cloud computing due to the virtualization layer overhead, insufficient tracelogs available for analysis, and complex workloads. These factors contribute to a lack of methodologies and models to characterize applications hosted in the cloud. To tackle the above issues, we propose a web application model to capture the behavioral patterns of different user profiles and to support analysis and simulation of resources utilization in cloud environments. A model validation was performed using graphic and statistical hypothesis methods. An implementation of our model is provided as an extension of the CloudSim simulator. Workload variations on Internet platforms such as YouTube, Flickr, LastFM require novel approaches to dynamic resource provisioning in order to meet QoS requirements, while reducing the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) of the infrastructures. The economy of scale promise of cloud computing is a great opportunity to approach this problem, by developing elastic large scale server infrastructures. However, a proactive approach to dynamic resource provisioning requires prediction models forecasting future load patterns. On the other hand, unexpected volume and data spikes require reactive provisioning for serving unexpected surges in workloads. When workload can not be predicted, adequate data grouping and placement algorithms may facilitate agile scaling up and down of an infrastructure. In this paper, we analyze a dynamic workload of an on-line music portal and present an elastic Web infrastructure that adapts to workload variations by dynamically scaling up and down servers. The workload is predicted by an autoregressive model capturing trends and seasonal patterns. Further, for enhancing data locality, we propose a predictive data grouping based on the history of content access of a user community. Finally, in order to facilitate agile elasticity, we present a data placement based on workload and access pattern prediction. The experimental results demonstrate that our forecasting model predicts workload with a high precision. Further, the predictive data grouping and placement methods provide high locality, load balance and high utilization of resources, allowing a server infrastructure to scale up and down depending on workload. The recent surge in the popularity and usage of Cloud Computing services by both the enterprise and individual consumers has necessitated efficient and proactive management of data center resources which host services having varied characteristics. One of the major issues concerning both the cloud service providers and consumers is the automatic scalability of resources (i.e., compute, storage and bandwidth) in response to the highly unpredictable demands. To this end, an opportunity exists to harness the predictive and diagnostic capabilities of machine learning approaches to incorporate dynamic scaling up and scaling down of resources without violating the Service Level Agreements (SLA) and simultaneously ensuring adequate revenue to the providers. This paper proposes, implements and evaluates a Bayesian Networks based predictive modeling framework to provide for an autonomic scaling of utility computing resources in the Cloud Computing scenario. In essence, the BN-based model captures the historical behavior of the system involving various performance metrics (indicators) and predicts the desired unknown metric (e.g. SLA parameter). Initial simulated experiments involving random demand scenarios provide insights into the feasibility and applicability of the proposed approach for improving the management of present data center facilities. Cloud computing promises high scalability, flexibility and cost-effectiveness to satisfy emerging computing requirements. To efficiently provision computing resources in the cloud, system administrators need the capabilities of characterizing and predicting workload on the Virtual Machines (VMs). In this paper, we use data traces obtained from a real data center to develop such capabilities. First, we search for repeatable workload patterns by exploring cross-VM workload correlations resulted from the dependencies among applications running on different VMs. Treating workload data samples as time series, we develop a co-clustering technique to identify groups of VMs that frequently exhibit correlated workload patterns, and also the time periods in which these VM groups are active. Then, we introduce a method based on Hidden Markov Modeling (HMM) to characterize the temporal correlations in the discovered VM clusters and to predict variations of workload patterns. The experimental results show that our method can not only help better understand group-level workload characteristics, but also make more accurate predictions on workload changes in a cloud.