Information cascades are ubiquitous in both physical society and online social media, taking on large variations in structures, dynamics and semantics. Although the dynamics and semantics of information cascades have been studied, the structural patterns and their correlations with dynamics and semantics are largely unknown. Here we explore a large-scale dataset including @math million information cascades with explicit records of spreading traces, spreading behaviors, information content as well as user profiles. We find that the structural complexity of information cascades is far beyond the previous conjectures. We first propose a ten-dimensional metric to quantify the structural characteristics of information cascades, reflecting cascade size, silhouette, direction and activity aspects. We find that bimodal law governs majority of the metrics, information flows in cascades have four directions, and the self-loop number and average activity of cascades follows power law. We then analyze the high-order structural patterns of information cascades. Finally, we evaluate to what extent the structural features of information cascades can explain its dynamic patterns and semantics, and finally uncover some notable implications of structural patterns in information cascades. Our discoveries also provide a foundation for the microscopic mechanisms for information spreading, potentially leading to implications for cascade prediction and outlier detection.
Previous study shows different topics of information spreading follow different mechanism @cite_17 . Celebrated topic modeling method LDA @cite_20 is not applicable to Twitter or Weibo scenarios @cite_2 . In oder to get high precision in topic modeling, we adopt information filtering methods inspired by @cite_14 @cite_2 .
@cite_14 @cite_2 @cite_20 @cite_17
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In this work, we address the problem of joint modeling of text and citations in the topic modeling framework. We present two different models called the Pairwise-Link-LDA and the Link-PLSA-LDA models. The Pairwise-Link-LDA model combines the ideas of LDA [4] and Mixed Membership Block Stochastic Models [1] and allows modeling arbitrary link structure. However, the model is computationally expensive, since it involves modeling the presence or absence of a citation (link) between every pair of documents. The second model solves this problem by assuming that the link structure is a bipartite graph. As the name indicates, Link-PLSA-LDA model combines the LDA and PLSA models into a single graphical model. Our experiments on a subset of Citeseer data show that both these models are able to predict unseen data better than the baseline model of Erosheva and Lafferty [8], by capturing the notion of topical similarity between the contents of the cited and citing documents. Our experiments on two different data sets on the link prediction task show that the Link-PLSA-LDA model performs the best on the citation prediction task, while also remaining highly scalable. In addition, we also present some interesting visualizations generated by each of the models. Topic models, such as Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), posit that documents are drawn from admixtures of distributions over words, known as topics. The inference problem of recovering topics from admixtures, is NP-hard. Assuming separability, a strong assumption, [4] gave the first provable algorithm for inference. For LDA model, [6] gave a provable algorithm using tensor-methods. But [4,6] do not learn topic vectors with bounded @math error (a natural measure for probability vectors). Our aim is to develop a model which makes intuitive and empirically supported assumptions and to design an algorithm with natural, simple components such as SVD, which provably solves the inference problem for the model with bounded @math error. A topic in LDA and other models is essentially characterized by a group of co-occurring words. Motivated by this, we introduce topic specific Catchwords, group of words which occur with strictly greater frequency in a topic than any other topic individually and are required to have high frequency together rather than individually. A major contribution of the paper is to show that under this more realistic assumption, which is empirically verified on real corpora, a singular value decomposition (SVD) based algorithm with a crucial pre-processing step of thresholding, can provably recover the topics from a collection of documents drawn from Dominant admixtures. Dominant admixtures are convex combination of distributions in which one distribution has a significantly higher contribution than others. Apart from the simplicity of the algorithm, the sample complexity has near optimal dependence on @math , the lowest probability that a topic is dominant, and is better than [4]. Empirical evidence shows that on several real world corpora, both Catchwords and Dominant admixture assumptions hold and the proposed algorithm substantially outperforms the state of the art [5]. Modeling the movement of information within social media outlets, like Twitter, is key to understanding to how ideas spread but quantifying such movement runs into several difficulties. Two specific areas that elude a clear characterization are (i) the intrinsic random nature of individuals to potentially adopt and subsequently broadcast a Twitter topic, and (ii) the dissemination of information via non-Twitter sources, such as news outlets and word of mouth, and its impact on Twitter propagation. These distinct yet inter-connected areas must be incorporated to generate a comprehensive model of information diffusion. We propose a bispace model to capture propagation in the union of (exclusively) Twitter and non-Twitter environments. To quantify the stochastic nature of Twitter topic propagation, we combine principles of geometric Brownian motion and traditional network graph theory. We apply Poisson process functions to model information diffusion outside of the Twitter mentions network. We discuss techniques to unify the two sub-models to accurately model information dissemination. We demonstrate the novel application of these techniques on real Twitter datasets related to mass protest adoption in social communities. This paper presents online topic model (OLDA), a topic model that automatically captures the thematic patterns and identifies emerging topics of text streams and their changes over time. Our approach allows the topic modeling framework, specifically the latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) model, to work in an online fashion such that it incrementally builds an up-to-date model (mixture of topics per document and mixture of words per topic) when a new document (or a set of documents) appears. A solution based on the empirical Bayes method is proposed. The idea is to incrementally update the current model according to the information inferred from the new stream of data with no need to access previous data. The dynamics of the proposed approach also provide an efficient mean to track the topics over time and detect the emerging topics in real time. Our method is evaluated both qualitatively and quantitatively using benchmark datasets. In our experiments, the OLDA has discovered interesting patterns by just analyzing a fraction of data at a time. Our tests also prove the ability of OLDA to align the topics across the epochs with which the evolution of the topics over time is captured. The OLDA is also comparable to, and sometimes better than, the original LDA in predicting the likelihood of unseen documents.