We propose a new approach to value function approximation which combines linear temporal difference reinforcement learning with subspace identification. In practical applications, reinforcement learning (RL) is complicated by the fact that state is either high-dimensional or partially observable. Therefore, RL methods are designed to work with features of state rather than state itself, and the success or failure of learning is often determined by the suitability of the selected features. By comparison, subspace identification (SSID) methods are designed to select a feature set which preserves as much information as possible about state. In this paper we connect the two approaches, looking at the problem of reinforcement learning with a large set of features, each of which may only be marginally useful for value function approximation. We introduce a new algorithm for this situation, called Predictive State Temporal Difference (PSTD) learning. As in SSID for predictive state representations, PSTD finds a linear compression operator that projects a large set of features down to a small set that preserves the maximum amount of predictive information. As in RL, PSTD then uses a Bellman recursion to estimate a value function. We discuss the connection between PSTD and prior approaches in RL and SSID. We prove that PSTD is statistically consistent, perform several experiments that illustrate its properties, and demonstrate its potential on a difficult optimal stopping problem.
Just as showed for the two simpler methods, we show that our two improved methods (model-free and model-based) are equivalent. This result yields some appealing theoretical benefits: for example, PSTD features can be explicitly interpreted as a statistically consistent estimate of the true underlying system state. And, the feasibility of finding the true value function can be shown to depend on the of the dynamical system, or equivalently, the dimensionality of the predictive state representation--- on the cardinality of the POMDP state space. Therefore our representation is naturally compressed'' in the sense of @cite_15 , speeding up convergence.
@cite_15
2208906386 1997691213 199115908 2952801764
Recently, a number of researchers have proposed spectral algorithms for learning models of dynamical systems—for example, Hidden Markov Models (HMMs), Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs), and Transformed Predictive State Representations (TPSRs). These algorithms are attractive since they are statistically consistent and not subject to local optima. However, they are batch methods: they need to store their entire training data set in memory at once and operate on it as a large matrix, and so they cannot scale to extremely large data sets (either many examples or many features per example). In turn, this restriction limits their ability to learn accurate models of complex systems. To overcome these limitations, we propose a new online spectral algorithm, which uses tricks such as incremental Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) and random projections to scale to much larger data sets and more complex systems than previous methods. We demonstrate the new method on an inertial measurement prediction task and a high-bandwidth video mapping task and we illustrate desirable behaviors such as "closing the loop," where the latent state representation changes suddenly as the learner recognizes that it has returned to a previously known place. Pictorial structure (PS) models are extensively used for part-based recognition of scenes, people, animals and multi-part objects. To achieve tractability, the structure and parameterization of the model is often restricted, for example, by assuming tree dependency structure and unimodal, data-independent pairwise interactions. These expressivity restrictions fail to capture important patterns in the data. On the other hand, local methods such as nearest-neighbor classification and kernel density estimation provide non-parametric flexibility but require large amounts of data to generalize well. We propose a simple semi-parametric approach that combines the tractability of pictorial structure inference with the flexibility of non-parametric methods by expressing a subset of model parameters as kernel regression estimates from a learned sparse set of exemplars. This yields query-specific, image-dependent pose priors. We develop an effective shape-based kernel for upper-body pose similarity and propose a leave-one-out loss function for learning a sparse subset of exemplars for kernel regression. We apply our techniques to two challenging datasets of human figure parsing and advance the state-of-the-art (from 80 to 86 on the Buffy dataset [8]), while using only 15 of the training data as exemplars. Early prediction of ongoing activity has been more and more valuable in a large variety of time-critical applications. To build an effective representation for prediction, human activities can be characterized by a complex temporal composition of constituent simple actions. Different from early recognition on short-duration simple activities, we propose a novel framework for long-duration complex activity prediction by discovering the causal relationships between constituent actions and the predictable characteristics of activities. The major contributions of our work include: (1) we propose a novel activity decomposition method by monitoring motion velocity which encodes a temporal decomposition of long activities into a sequence of meaningful action units; (2) Probabilistic Suffix Tree (PST) is introduced to represent both large and small order Markov dependencies between action units; (3) we present a Predictive Accumulative Function (PAF) to depict the predictability of each kind of activity. The effectiveness of the proposed method is evaluated on two experimental scenarios: activities with middle-level complexity and activities with high-level complexity. Our method achieves promising results and can predict global activity classes and local action units. In this paper, we introduce a new adaptive data analysis method to study trend and instantaneous frequency of nonlinear and non-stationary data. This method is inspired by the Empirical Mode Decomposition method (EMD) and the recently developed compressed (compressive) sensing theory. The main idea is to look for the sparsest representation of multiscale data within the largest possible dictionary consisting of intrinsic mode functions of the form @math , where @math , @math consists of the functions smoother than @math and @math . This problem can be formulated as a nonlinear @math optimization problem. In order to solve this optimization problem, we propose a nonlinear matching pursuit method by generalizing the classical matching pursuit for the @math optimization problem. One important advantage of this nonlinear matching pursuit method is it can be implemented very efficiently and is very stable to noise. Further, we provide a convergence analysis of our nonlinear matching pursuit method under certain scale separation assumptions. Extensive numerical examples will be given to demonstrate the robustness of our method and comparison will be made with the EMD EEMD method. We also apply our method to study data without scale separation, data with intra-wave frequency modulation, and data with incomplete or under-sampled data.