Similarity-based approaches represent a promising direction for time series analysis. However, many such methods rely on parameter tuning, and some have shortcomings if the time series are multivariate (MTS), due to dependencies between attributes, or the time series contain missing data. In this paper, we address these challenges within the powerful context of kernel methods by proposing the robust (TCK). The approach taken leverages the missing data handling properties of Gaussian mixture models (GMM) augmented with informative prior distributions. An ensemble learning approach is exploited to ensure robustness to parameters by combining the clustering results of many GMM to form the final kernel. We evaluate the TCK on synthetic and real data and compare to other state-of-the-art techniques. The experimental results demonstrate that the TCK is robust to parameter choices, provides competitive results for MTS without missing data and outstanding results for missing data.
Conversely, there exists a class of (probabilistic) kernels operating on the configurations of a given parametric model, where the idea is to leverage the way distributions capture similarity. For instance, the Fisher kernel assumes an underlying generative model to explain all observed data @cite_85 . The Fisher kernel maps each time series @math into a feature vector @math , which is the gradient of the log-likelihood of the generative model fit on the dataset. The kernel is defined as @math , where @math is the fisher information matrix. Another example is the probability product kernel @cite_10 , which is evaluated by means of the Bhattacharyya distance in the probability space. A further representative is the marginalized kernel @cite_64 , designed to deal with objects generated from latent variable models. Given two visible variables, @math and @math and two hidden variables, @math and @math , at first, a joint kernel @math is defined over the two combined variables @math and @math . Then, a marginalized kernel for visible data is derived from the expectation with respect to hidden variables: @math . The posterior distributions are in general unknown and are estimated by fitting a parametric model on the data.
@cite_85 @cite_10 @cite_64
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Within the field of pattern classification, the Fisher kernel is a powerful framework which combines the strengths of generative and discriminative approaches. The idea is to characterize a signal with a gradient vector derived from a generative probability model and to subsequently feed this representation to a discriminative classifier. We propose to apply this framework to image categorization where the input signals are images and where the underlying generative model is a visual vocabulary: a Gaussian mixture model which approximates the distribution of low-level features in images. We show that Fisher kernels can actually be understood as an extension of the popular bag-of-visterms. Our approach demonstrates excellent performance on two challenging databases: an in-house database of 19 object scene categories and the recently released VOC 2006 database. It is also very practical: it has low computational needs both at training and test time and vocabularies trained on one set of categories can be applied to another set without any significant loss in performance. The advantages of discriminative learning algorithms and kernel machines are combined with generative modeling using a novel kernel between distributions. In the probability product kernel, data points in the input space are mapped to distributions over the sample space and a general inner product is then evaluated as the integral of the product of pairs of distributions. The kernel is straightforward to evaluate for all exponential family models such as multinomials and Gaussians and yields interesting nonlinear kernels. Furthermore, the kernel is computable in closed form for latent distributions such as mixture models, hidden Markov models and linear dynamical systems. For intractable models, such as switching linear dynamical systems, structured mean-field approximations can be brought to bear on the kernel evaluation. For general distributions, even if an analytic expression for the kernel is not feasible, we show a straightforward sampling method to evaluate it. Thus, the kernel permits discriminative learning methods, including support vector machines, to exploit the properties, metrics and invariances of the generative models we infer from each datum. Experiments are shown using multinomial models for text, hidden Markov models for biological data sets and linear dynamical systems for time series data. Motivation: Kernel methods such as support vector machines require a kernel function between objects to be defined a priori. Several works have been done to derive kernels from probability distributions, e.g., the Fisher kernel. However, a general methodology to design a kernel is not fully developed. Results: We propose a reasonable way of designing a kernel when objects are generated from latent variable models (e.g., HMM). First of all, a joint kernel is designed for complete data which include both visible and hidden variables. Then a marginalized kernel for visible data is obtained by taking the expectation with respect to hidden variables. We will show that the Fisher kernel is a special case of marginalized kernels, which gives another viewpoint to the Fisher kernel theory. Although our approach can be applied to any object, we particularly derive several marginalized kernels useful for biological sequences (e.g., DNA and proteins). The effectiveness of marginalized kernels is illustrated in the task of classifying bacterial gyrase subunit B (gyrB) amino acid sequences. One approach to improve the accuracy of classifications based on generative models is to combine them with successful discriminative algorithms. Fisher kernels were developed to combine generative models with a currently very popular class of learning algorithms, kernel methods. Empirically, the combination of hidden Markov models with support vector machines has shown promising results. So far, however, Fisher kernels have only been considered for sequences over flat alphabets. This is mostly due to the lack of a method for computing the gradient of a generative model over structured sequences. In this paper, we show how to compute the gradient of logical hidden Markov models, which allow for the modelling of logical sequences, i.e., sequences over an alphabet of logical atoms. Experiments show a considerable improvement over results achieved without Fisher kernels for logical sequences.