This paper presents the recurrent estimation of distributions (RED) for modeling real-valued data in a semiparametric fashion. RED models make two novel uses of recurrent neural networks (RNNs) for density estimation of general real-valued data. First, RNNs are used to transform input covariates into a latent space to better capture conditional dependencies in inputs. After, an RNN is used to compute the conditional distributions of the latent covariates. The resulting model is efficient to train, compute, and sample from, whilst producing normalized pdfs. The effectiveness of RED is shown via several real-world data experiments. Our results show that RED models achieve a lower held-out negative log-likelihood than other neural network approaches across multiple dataset sizes and dimensionalities. Further context of the efficacy of RED is provided by considering anomaly detection tasks, where we also observe better performance over alternative models.
Nonparametric density estimation has been a well studied problem in statistics and machine learning @cite_0 . Unfortunately, nonparametric approaches like kernel density estimation suffer greatly from the curse of dimensionality and do not perform well when data does not have a small number of dimensions ( @math ). To alleviate this, several semiparametric approaches have been explored. Such approaches include forest density estimation @cite_15 , which assumes that the data has a forest (i.e. a collection of trees) structured graph. This assumption leads to a density which factorizes in a first order Markovian fashion through a tree traversal of the graph. Another common semiparametric approach is to use a nonparanormal type model @cite_21 . This approach uses a Gaussian copula with a rank-based transformation and a sparse precision matrix. While both approaches are well-understood theoretically, their strong assumptions often lead to inflexible models.
@cite_0 @cite_15 @cite_21
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This paper develops a nonparametric density estimator with parametric overtones. Suppose f(x, θ) is some family of densities, indexed by a vector of parameters θ. We define a local kernel-smoothed likelihood function which, for each x, can be used to estimate the best local parametric approximant to the true density. This leads to a new density estimator of the form f(x, o(x)), thus inserting the best local parameter estimate for each new value of x. When the bandwidth used is large, this amounts to ordinary full likelihood parametric density estimation, while for moderate and small bandwidths the method is essentially nonparametric, using only local properties of data and the model. Alternative ways more general than via the local likelihood are also described. The methods can be seen as ways of nonparametrically smoothing the parameter within a parametric class. Properties of this new semiparametric estimator are investigated. Our preferred version has approximately the same variance as the ordinary kernel method but potentially a smaller bias. The new method is seen to perform better than the traditional kernel method in a broad nonparametric vicinity of the parametric model employed, while at the same time being capable of not losing much in precision to full likelihood methods when the model is correct. Other versions of the method are approximately equivalent to using particular higher order kernels in a semiparametric framework. The methodology we develop can be seen as the density estimation parallel to local likelihood and local weighted least squares theory in nonparametric regression. Non-parametric density estimation is an important technique in probabilistic modeling and reasoning with uncertainty. We present a method for learning mixtures of polynomials (MoPs) approximations of one-dimensional and multidimensional probability densities from data. The method is based on basis spline interpolation, where a density is approximated as a linear combination of basis splines. We compute maximum likelihood estimators of the mixing coefficients of the linear combination. The Bayesian information criterion is used as the score function to select the order of the polynomials and the number of pieces of the MoP. The method is evaluated in two ways. First, we test the approximation fitting. We sample artificial datasets from known one-dimensional and multidimensional densities and learn MoP approximations from the datasets. The quality of the approximations is analyzed according to different criteria, and the new proposal is compared with MoPs learned with Lagrange interpolation and mixtures of truncated basis functions. Second, the proposed method is used as a non-parametric density estimation technique in Bayesian classifiers. Two of the most widely studied Bayesian classifiers, i.e., the naive Bayes and tree-augmented naive Bayes classifiers, are implemented and compared. Results on real datasets show that the non-parametric Bayesian classifiers using MoPs are comparable to the kernel density-based Bayesian classifiers. We provide a free R package implementing the proposed methods. Kernel density estimation is the most widely-used practical method for accurate nonparametric density estimation. However, long-standing worst-case theoretical results showing that its performance worsens exponentially with the dimension of the data have quashed its application to modern high-dimensional datasets for decades. In practice, it has been recognized that often such data have a much lower-dimensional intrinsic structure. We propose a small modification to kernel density estimation for estimating probability density functions on Riemannian submanifolds of Euclidean space. Using ideas from Riemannian geometry, we prove the consistency of this modified estimator and show that the convergence rate is determined by the intrinsic dimension of the submanifold. We conclude with empirical results demonstrating the behavior predicted by our theory. Recent methods for estimating sparse undirected graphs for real-valued data in high dimensional problems rely heavily on the assumption of normality. We show how to use a semiparametric Gaussian copula---or "nonparanormal"---for high dimensional inference. Just as additive models extend linear models by replacing linear functions with a set of one-dimensional smooth functions, the nonparanormal extends the normal by transforming the variables by smooth functions. We derive a method for estimating the nonparanormal, study the method's theoretical properties, and show that it works well in many examples.