In this paper, computational aspects of the panel aggregation problem are addressed. Motivated primarily by applications of risk assessment, an algorithm is developed for aggregating large corpora of internally incoherent probability assessments. The algorithm is characterized by a provable performance guarantee, and is demonstrated to be orders of magnitude faster than existing tools when tested on several real-world data-sets. In addition, unexpected connections between research in risk assessment and wireless sensor networks are exposed, as several key ideas are illustrated to be useful in both fields.
@cite_20 consider a Bayesian approach to reconciling probability forecasts, whereby noisy" observations @math are assumed to arise from a coherent set @math . CAP can be viewed as a special-case of their model, since as discussed above, the solution to ) admits a Bayesian interpretation as the maximum-likelihood coherent forecasts given additive white noise corrupted observations @math . However, note that @cite_20 sought to eliminate incoherence from a single judge, whereas CAP was introduced to address the panel aggregation problem. Moreover, Osherson and Vardi were motivated by non-statistical interpretations of CAP and as here, addressed the computational issue of implementing CAP.
@cite_20
1599813212 2949962875 2043312033 1521197246
We address the problem of ranking question answerers according to their credibility, characterized here by the probability that a given question answerer (user) will be awarded a best answer on a question given the answerer’s question-answering history. This probability (represented by θ ) is considered to be a hidden variable that can only be estimated statistically from specific observations associated with the user, namely the number b of best answers awarded, associated with the number n of questions answered. The more specific problem addressed is the potentially high degree of uncertainty associated with such credibility estimates when they are based on small numbers of answers. We address this problem by a kind of Bayesian smoothing. The credibility estimate will consist of a mixture of the overall population statistics and those of the specific user. The greater the number of questions asked, the greater will be the contribution of the specific user statistics relative to those of the overall population. We use the Predictive Stochastic Complexity (PSC) as an accuracy measure to evaluate several methods that can be used for the estimation. We compare our technique (Bayesian Smoothing (BS)) with maximum a priori (MAP) estimation, maximum likelihood (ML) estimation and Laplace smoothing. In sparse principal component analysis we are given noisy observations of a low-rank matrix of dimension @math and seek to reconstruct it under additional sparsity assumptions. In particular, we assume here each of the principal components @math has at most @math non-zero entries. We are particularly interested in the high dimensional regime wherein @math is comparable to, or even much larger than @math . In an influential paper, johnstone2004sparse introduced a simple algorithm that estimates the support of the principal vectors @math by the largest entries in the diagonal of the empirical covariance. This method can be shown to identify the correct support with high probability if @math , and to fail with high probability if @math for two constants @math . Despite a considerable amount of work over the last ten years, no practical algorithm exists with provably better support recovery guarantees. Here we analyze a covariance thresholding algorithm that was recently proposed by KrauthgamerSPCA . On the basis of numerical simulations (for the rank-one case), these authors conjectured that covariance thresholding correctly recover the support with high probability for @math (assuming @math of the same order as @math ). We prove this conjecture, and in fact establish a more general guarantee including higher-rank as well as @math much smaller than @math . Recent lower bounds berthet2013computational, ma2015sum suggest that no polynomial time algorithm can do significantly better. The key technical component of our analysis develops new bounds on the norm of kernel random matrices, in regimes that were not considered before. We consider the CEO problem for non-regular source distributions (such as uniform or truncated Gaussian). A group of agents observe independently corrupted versions of data and transmit coded versions over rate-limited links to a CEO. The CEO then estimates the underlying data based on the received coded observations. Agents are not allowed to convene before transmitting their observations. This formulation is motivated by the practical problem of a firm’s CEO estimating (non-regular) beliefs about a sequence of events, before acting on them. Agents’ observations are modeled as jointly distributed with the underlying data through a given conditional probability density function. We study the asymptotic behavior of the minimum achievable mean squared error distortion at the CEO in the limit when the number of agents @math and the sum rate @math tend to infinity. We establish a @math convergence of the distortion, an intermediate regime of performance between the exponential behavior in discrete CEO problems [Berger, Zhang, and Viswanathan (1996)], and the @math behavior in Gaussian CEO problems [Viswanathan and Berger (1997)]. Achievability is proved by a layered architecture with scalar quantization, distributed entropy coding, and midrange estimation. The converse is proved using the Bayesian Chazan–Zakai–Ziv bound. We study a statistical model for the tensor principal component analysis problem introduced by Montanari and Richard: Given a order- @math tensor @math of the form @math , where @math is a signal-to-noise ratio, @math is a unit vector, and @math is a random noise tensor, the goal is to recover the planted vector @math . For the case that @math has iid standard Gaussian entries, we give an efficient algorithm to recover @math whenever @math , and certify that the recovered vector is close to a maximum likelihood estimator, all with high probability over the random choice of @math . The previous best algorithms with provable guarantees required @math . In the regime @math , natural tensor-unfolding-based spectral relaxations for the underlying optimization problem break down (in the sense that their integrality gap is large). To go beyond this barrier, we use convex relaxations based on the sum-of-squares method. Our recovery algorithm proceeds by rounding a degree- @math sum-of-squares relaxations of the maximum-likelihood-estimation problem for the statistical model. To complement our algorithmic results, we show that degree- @math sum-of-squares relaxations break down for @math , which demonstrates that improving our current guarantees (by more than logarithmic factors) would require new techniques or might even be intractable. Finally, we show how to exploit additional problem structure in order to solve our sum-of-squares relaxations, up to some approximation, very efficiently. Our fastest algorithm runs in nearly-linear time using shifted (matrix) power iteration and has similar guarantees as above. The analysis of this algorithm also confirms a variant of a conjecture of Montanari and Richard about singular vectors of tensor unfoldings.