In this paper, computational aspects of the panel aggregation problem are addressed. Motivated primarily by applications of risk assessment, an algorithm is developed for aggregating large corpora of internally incoherent probability assessments. The algorithm is characterized by a provable performance guarantee, and is demonstrated to be orders of magnitude faster than existing tools when tested on several real-world data-sets. In addition, unexpected connections between research in risk assessment and wireless sensor networks are exposed, as several key ideas are illustrated to be useful in both fields.
A panel-aggregation problem is addressed in the online" learning model, which is frequently studied in learning theory @cite_16 @cite_17 . In that setting, a panel of experts predicts the true outcome of a set of events. A central agent constructs its own forecast by fusing the experts' predictions, and upon learning the truth, suffers a loss sometimes specified by a quadratic penalty function. In repeated trials, the agent updates its fusion rule (e.g., the weights" in a weighted average), taking into account the performance of each expert. Under minimal assumptions on the evolution of these trials, bounds are derived that compare the trial-averaged performance of the central agent with that of the best (weighted combination of) expert(s). In contrast to the current framework, the online model typically assumes that each expert provides a forecast for the same event or partition of events. Thus, fusion strategies such as weighted averaging are appropriate in the online model, for the same reasons discussed above. Also, observe that the present model concerns a single trial", not many.
@cite_16 @cite_17
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Mixtures of Experts combine the outputs of several “expert” networks, each of which specializes in a different part of the input space. This is achieved by training a “gating” network that maps each input to a distribution over the experts. Such models show promise for building larger networks that are still cheap to compute at test time, and more parallelizable at training time. In this this work, we extend the Mixture of Experts to a stacked model, the Deep Mixture of Experts, with multiple sets of gating and experts. This exponentially increases the number of effective experts by associating each input with a combination of experts at each layer, yet maintains a modest model size. On a randomly translated version of the MNIST dataset, we find that the Deep Mixture of Experts automatically learns to develop location-dependent (“where”) experts at the first layer, and class-specific (“what”) experts at the second layer. In addition, we see that the different combinations are in use when the model is applied to a dataset of speech monophones. These demonstrate effective use of all expert combinations. We consider algorithms for combining advice from a set of experts. In each trial, the algorithm receives the predictions of the experts and produces its own prediction. A loss function is applied to measure the discrepancy between the predictions and actual observations. The algorithm keeps a weight for each expert. At each trial the weights are first used to help produce the prediction and then updated according to the observed outcome. Our starting point is Vovk's Aggregating Algorithm, in which the weights have a simple form: the weight of an expert decreases exponentially as a function of the loss incurred by the expert. The prediction of the Aggregating Algorithm is typically a non-linear function of the weights and the experts' predictions. We analyze here a simplified algorithm in which the weights are as in the original Aggregating Algorithm, but the prediction is simply the weighted average of the experts' predictions. We show that for a large class of loss functions, even with the simplified prediction rule the additional loss of the algorithm over the loss of the best expert is at most c ln n, where n is the number of experts and c a constant that depends on the loss function. Thus, the bound is of the same form as the known bounds for the Aggregating Algorithm, although the constants here are not quite as good. We use relative entropy to rewrite the bounds in a stronger form and to motivate the update. We present distributed algorithms that can be used by multiple agents to align their estimates with a particular value over a network with time-varying connectivity. Our framework is general in that this value can represent a consensus value among multiple agents or an optimal solution of an optimization problem, where the global objective function is a combination of local agent objective functions. Our main focus is on constrained problems where the estimates of each agent are restricted to lie in different convex sets. To highlight the effects of constraints, we first consider a constrained consensus problem and present a distributed "projected consensus algorithm" in which agents combine their local averaging operation with projection on their individual constraint sets. This algorithm can be viewed as a version of an alternating projection method with weights that are varying over time and across agents. We establish convergence and convergence rate results for the projected consensus algorithm. We next study a constrained optimization problem for optimizing the sum of local objective functions of the agents subject to the intersection of their local constraint sets. We present a distributed "projected subgradient algorithm" which involves each agent performing a local averaging operation, taking a subgradient step to minimize its own objective function, and projecting on its constraint set. We show that, with an appropriately selected stepsize rule, the agent estimates generated by this algorithm converge to the same optimal solution for the cases when the weights are constant and equal, and when the weights are time-varying but all agents have the same constraint set. Statistical aggregation is often used to combine multiple opinions within a group. Such aggregates outperform individuals, including experts, in various prediction and estimation tasks. This result is attributed to the “wisdom of crowds.” We seek to improve the quality of such aggregates by eliminating poorly performing individuals from the crowd. We propose a new measure of contribution to assess the judges' performance relative to the group and use positive contributors to build a weighting model for aggregating forecasts. In Study 1, we analyze 1,233 judges forecasting almost 200 current events to illustrate the superiority of our model over unweighted models and models weighted by measures of absolute performance. In Study 2, we replicate our findings by using economic forecasts from the European Central Bank and show how the method can be used to identify smaller crowds of the top positive contributors. We show that the model derives its power from identifying experts who consistently outperform the crowd. Data, as supplemental material, are available at http: dx.doi.org 10.1287 mnsc.2014.1909 . This paper was accepted by James Smith, decision analysis.