We consider a variant of the multi-armed bandit model, which we call multi-armed bandit problem with known trend, where the gambler knows the shape of the reward function of each arm but not its distribution. This new problem is motivated by different online problems like active learning, music and interface recommendation applications, where when an arm is sampled by the model the received reward change according to a known trend. By adapting the standard multi-armed bandit algorithm UCB1 to take advantage of this setting, we propose the new algorithm named A-UCB that assumes a stochastic model. We provide upper bounds of the regret which compare favourably with the ones of UCB1. We also confirm that experimentally with different simulations
Another work done in @cite_5 considers the situation where the distributions of rewards remain constant over epochs and change at unknown time instants. They analyze two algorithms: the discounted UCB and the sliding-window UCB and they establish for these two algorithms an upper-bound for the expected regret by upper-bounding the expectation of the number of times a suboptimal arm is played. They establish a lower-bound for the regret in presence of abrupt changes in the arms reward distributions.
@cite_5
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Many problems, such as cognitive radio, parameter control of a scanning tunnelling microscope or internet advertisement, can be modelled as non-stationary bandit problems where the distributions of rewards changes abruptly at unknown time instants. In this paper, we analyze two algorithms designed for solving this issue: discounted UCB (D-UCB) and sliding-window UCB (SW-UCB). We establish an upperbound for the expected regret by upper-bounding the expectation of the number of times suboptimal arms are played. The proof relies on an interesting Hoeffding type inequality for self normalized deviations with a random number of summands. We establish a lower-bound for the regret in presence of abrupt changes in the arms reward distributions. We show that the discounted UCB and the sliding-window UCB both match the lower-bound up to a logarithmic factor. Numerical simulations show that D-UCB and SW-UCB perform significantly better than existing soft-max methods like EXP3.S. Multi-armed bandit problems are considered as a paradigm of the trade-off between exploring the environment to find profitable actions and exploiting what is already known. In the stationary case, the distributions of the rewards do not change in time, Upper-Confidence Bound (UCB) policies have been shown to be rate optimal. A challenging variant of the MABP is the non-stationary bandit problem where the gambler must decide which arm to play while facing the possibility of a changing environment. In this paper, we consider the situation where the distributions of rewards remain constant over epochs and change at unknown time instants. We analyze two algorithms: the discounted UCB and the sliding-window UCB. We establish for these two algorithms an upper-bound for the expected regret by upper-bounding the expectation of the number of times a suboptimal arm is played. For that purpose, we derive a Hoeffding type inequality for self normalized deviations with a random number of summands. We establish a lower-bound for the regret in presence of abrupt changes in the arms reward distributions. We show that the discounted UCB and the sliding-window UCB both match the lower-bound up to a logarithmic factor. We consider the restless multi-armed bandit (RMAB) problem with unknown dynamics. At each time, a player chooses K out of N (N > K) arms to play. The state of each arm determines the reward when the arm is played and transits according to Markovian rules no matter the arm is engaged or passive. The Markovian dynamics of the arms are unknown to the player. The objective is to maximize the long-term expected reward by designing an optimal arm selection policy. The performance of a policy is measured by regret, defined as the reward loss with respect to the case where the player knows which K arms are the most rewarding and always plays these K best arms. We construct a policy, referred to as Restless Upper Confidence Bound (RUCB), that achieves a regret with logarithmic order of time when an arbitrary nontrivial bound on certain system parameters is known. When no knowledge about the system is available, we extend the RUCB policy to achieve a regret arbitrarily close to the logarithmic order. In both cases, the system achieves the maximum average reward offered by the K best arms. Potential applications of these results include cognitive radio networks, opportunistic communications in unknown fading environments, and financial investment. We define a general framework for a large class of combinatorial multi-armed bandit (CMAB) problems, where subsets of base arms with unknown distributions form super arms. In each round, a super arm is played and the base arms contained in the super arm are played and their outcomes are observed. We further consider the extension in which more base arms could be probabilistically triggered based on the outcomes of already triggered arms. The reward of the super arm depends on the outcomes of all played arms, and it only needs to satisfy two mild assumptions, which allow a large class of nonlinear reward instances. We assume the availability of an offline (α β)-approximation oracle that takes the means of the outcome distributions of arms and outputs a super arm that with probability β generates an α fraction of the optimal expected reward. The objective of an online learning algorithm for CMAB is to minimize (α β)-approximation regret, which is the difference in total expected reward between the αβ fraction of expected reward when always playing the optimal super arm, and the expected reward of playing super arms according to the algorithm. We provide CUCB algorithm that achieves O(log n) distribution-dependent regret, where n is the number of rounds played, and we further provide distribution-independent bounds for a large class of reward functions. Our regret analysis is tight in that it matches the bound of UCB1 algorithm (up to a constant factor) for the classical MAB problem, and it significantly improves the regret bound in an earlier paper on combinatorial bandits with linear rewards. We apply our CMAB framework to two new applications, probabilistic maximum coverage (PMC) for online advertising and social in uence maximization for viral marketing, both having nonlinear reward structures. In particular, application to social in uence maximization requires our extension on probabilistically triggered arms.