We propose a general approach for change-point detection in dynamic networks. The proposed method is model-free and covers a wide range of dynamic networks. The key idea behind our approach is to effectively utilize the network structure in designing change-point detection algorithms. This is done via an initial step of graphon estimation, where we propose a modified neighborhood smoothing (MNBS) algorithm for estimating the link probability matrices of a dynamic network. Based on the initial graphon estimation, we then develop a screening and thresholding algorithm for multiple change-point detection in dynamic networks. The convergence rate and consistency for the change-point detection procedure are derived as well as those for MNBS. When the number of nodes is large (e.g., exceeds the number of temporal points), our approach yields a faster convergence rate in detecting change-points comparing with an algorithm that simply employs averaged information of the dynamic network across time. Numerical experiments demonstrate robust performance of the proposed algorithm for change-point detection under various types of dynamic networks, and superior performance over existing methods is observed. A real data example is provided to illustrate the effectiveness and practical impact of the procedure.
@cite_5 proposes a novel estimator for estimating the link probability matrix @math of an undirected network by neighborhood smoothing (NBS). The essential idea consists of the following: Given an adjacent matrix @math , the link probability @math between node @math and @math is estimated by where @math is a certain set of neighboring nodes of node @math , which consists of the nodes that exhibit similar connection patterns as node @math . With a well-designed neighborhood adaptive to the network structure, the smoothing achieves an accurate estimation for @math . NBS in @cite_5 estimates @math with a single adjacency matrix @math . For a dynamic network, a sequence of adjacency matrices @math is available, which provides extra information of the network. By aggregating information from repeated observations across time, in Section , we propose a modified NBS by carefully shrinking the neighborhood size, which yields a better convergence rate in estimating the link probability matrix @math and thus an improved rate in change-point detection.
@cite_5
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The estimation of probabilities of network edges from the observed adjacency matrix has important applications to predicting missing links and network denoising. It has usually been addressed by estimating the graphon, a function that determines the matrix of edge probabilities, but this is ill-defined without strong assumptions on the network structure. Here we propose a novel computationally efficient method, based on neighborhood smoothing to estimate the expectation of the adjacency matrix directly, without making the structural assumptions that graphon estimation requires. The neighborhood smoothing method requires little tuning, has a competitive mean-squared error rate, and outperforms many benchmark methods on link prediction in simulated and real networks. SummaryThe estimation of probabilities of network edges from the observed adjacency matrix has important applications to the prediction of missing links and to network denoising. It is usually addressed by estimating the graphon, a function that determines the matrix of edge probabilities, but this is ill-defined without strong assumptions on the network structure. Here we propose a novel computationally efficient method, based on neighbourhood smoothing, to estimate the expectation of the adjacency matrix directly, without making the structural assumptions that graphon estimation requires. The neighbourhood smoothing method requires little tuning, has a competitive mean squared error rate and outperforms many benchmark methods for link prediction in simulated and real networks. Let @math be a tree space (or tree network) represented by a weighted tree with @math vertices, and @math be a set of @math stochastic points in @math , each of which has a fixed location with an independent existence probability. We investigate two fundamental problems under such a stochastic setting, the closest-pair problem and the nearest-neighbor search. For the former, we study the computation of the @math -threshold probability and the expectation of the closest-pair distance of a realization of @math . We propose the first algorithm to compute the @math -threshold probability in @math time for any given threshold @math , which immediately results in an @math -time algorithm for computing the expected closest-pair distance. Based on this, we further show that one can compute a @math -approximation for the expected closest-pair distance in @math time, by arguing that the expected closest-pair distance can be approximated via @math threshold probability queries. For the latter, we study the @math most-likely nearest-neighbor search ( @math -LNN) via a notion called @math most-likely Voronoi Diagram ( @math -LVD). We show that the size of the @math -LVD @math of @math on @math is bounded by @math if the existence probabilities of the points in @math are constant-far from 0. Furthermore, we establish an @math average-case upper bound for the size of @math , by regarding the existence probabilities as i.i.d. random variables drawn from some fixed distribution. Our results imply the existence of an LVD data structure which answers @math -LNN queries in @math time using average-case @math space, and worst-case @math space if the existence probabilities are constant-far from 0. Finally, we also give an @math -time algorithm to construct the LVD data structure. We consider the problem of clustering a graph @math into two communities by observing a subset of the vertex correlations. Specifically, we consider the inverse problem with observed variables @math , where @math is the incidence matrix of a graph @math , @math is the vector of unknown vertex variables (with a uniform prior), and @math is a noise vector with Bernoulli @math i.i.d. entries. All variables and operations are Boolean. This model is motivated by coding, synchronization, and community detection problems. In particular, it corresponds to a stochastic block model or a correlation clustering problem with two communities and censored edges. Without noise, exact recovery (up to global flip) of @math is possible if and only the graph @math is connected, with a sharp threshold at the edge probability @math for Erdős-Renyi random graphs. The first goal of this paper is to determine how the edge probability @math needs to scale to allow exact recovery in the presence of noise. Defining the degree rate of the graph by @math , it is shown that exact recovery is possible if and only if @math . In other words, @math is the information theoretic threshold for exact recovery at low-SNR. In addition, an efficient recovery algorithm based on semidefinite programming is proposed and shown to succeed in the threshold regime up to twice the optimal rate. For a deterministic graph @math , defining the degree rate as @math , where @math is the minimum degree of the graph, it is shown that the proposed method achieves the rate @math , where @math is the spectral gap of the graph @math .