Many real-world prediction tasks have outcome (a.k.a. target or response) variables that have characteristic heavy-tail distributions. Examples include copies of books sold, auction prices of art pieces, etc. By learning heavy-tailed distributions, big and rare'' instances (e.g., the best-sellers) will have accurate predictions. Most existing approaches are not dedicated to learning heavy-tailed distribution; thus, they heavily under-predict such instances. To tackle this problem, we introduce ( L2P ), which exploits the pairwise relationships between instances to learn from a proportionally higher number of rare instances. L2P consists of two stages. In Stage 1, L2P learns a pairwise preference classifier: . In Stage 2, L2P learns to place a new instance into an ordinal ranking of known instances. Based on its placement, the new instance is then assigned a value for its outcome variable. Experiments on real data show that L2P outperforms competing approaches in terms of accuracy and capability to reproduce heavy-tailed outcome distribution. In addition, L2P can provide an interpretable model with explainable outcomes by placing each predicted instance in context with its comparable neighbors.
Regression problems are known to suffer from under-predicting rare instances @cite_17 . Approaches proposed to correct fitting models consider prior correction that introduces terms capturing a fraction of rare events in the observations and weighting the data to compensate for differences @cite_0 @cite_4 . Hsu and Sabato @cite_27 proposed a methodology for linear regression with possibly heavy-tailed responses. They split data into multiple pieces, repeat the estimation process several times, and select the estimators based on their performance. They analytically prove that their method can perform reasonably well on heavy-tailed datasets. Quantile regression related approaches are proposed as well. Wang @cite_24 proposed estimating the intermediate conditional quantiles using conventional quantile regression and extrapolating these estimates to capture the behavior at the tail of the distribution. Robust Regression for Asymmetric Tails (RRAT) @cite_33 was proposed to address the problem of asymmetric noise distribution by using conditional quantile estimators. Zhang and Zhou @cite_20 considered linear regression with heavy-tail distributions and showed that using @math loss with truncated minimization can have advantages over @math loss. Like all truncated based approaches, their method requires prior knowledge of distributional properties. None of these regression techniques can capture non-linear decision boundaries.
@cite_4 @cite_33 @cite_0 @cite_24 @cite_27 @cite_20 @cite_17
2963290535 2142057089 2113290770 2208030666
In this paper, we consider the problem of linear regression with heavy-tailed distributions. Different from previous studies that use the squared loss to measure the performance, we choose the absolute loss, which is more robust in the presence of large prediction errors. To address the challenge that both the input and output could be heavy-tailed, we propose a truncated minimization problem, and demonstrate that it enjoys an O( √ d n ) excess risk, where d is the dimensionality and n is the number of samples. Compared with traditional work on l1-regression, the main advantage of our result is that we achieve a high-probability risk bound without exponential moment conditions on the input and output. Furthermore, if the input is bounded, we show that the classical empirical risk minimization is competent for l1-regression even when the output is heavy-tailed. Recommender problems with large and dynamic item pools are ubiquitous in web applications like content optimization, online advertising and web search. Despite the availability of rich item meta-data, excess heterogeneity at the item level often requires inclusion of item-specific "factors" (or weights) in the model. However, since estimating item factors is computationally intensive, it poses a challenge for time-sensitive recommender problems where it is important to rapidly learn factors for new items (e.g., news articles, event updates, tweets) in an online fashion. In this paper, we propose a novel method called FOBFM (Fast Online Bilinear Factor Model) to learn item-specific factors quickly through online regression. The online regression for each item can be performed independently and hence the procedure is fast, scalable and easily parallelizable. However, the convergence of these independent regressions can be slow due to high dimensionality. The central idea of our approach is to use a large amount of historical data to initialize the online models based on offline features and learn linear projections that can effectively reduce the dimensionality. We estimate the rank of our linear projections by taking recourse to online model selection based on optimizing predictive likelihood. Through extensive experiments, we show that our method significantly and uniformly outperforms other competitive methods and obtains relative lifts that are in the range of 10-15 in terms of predictive log-likelihood, 200-300 for a rank correlation metric on a proprietary My Yahoo! dataset; it obtains 9 reduction in root mean squared error over the previously best method on a benchmark MovieLens dataset using a time-based train test data split. In this paper, we theoretically study the problem of binary classification in the presence of random classification noise—the learner, instead of seeing the true labels, sees labels that have independently been flipped with some small probability. Moreover, random label noise is class-conditional— the flip probability depends on the class. We provide two approaches to suitably modify any given surrogate loss function. First, we provide a simple unbiased estimator of any loss, and obtain performance bounds for empirical risk minimization in the presence of iid data with noisy labels. If the loss function satisfies a simple symmetry condition, we show that the method leads to an efficient algorithm for empirical minimization. Second, by leveraging a reduction of risk minimization under noisy labels to classification with weighted 0-1 loss, we suggest the use of a simple weighted surrogate loss, for which we are able to obtain strong empirical risk bounds. This approach has a very remarkable consequence — methods used in practice such as biased SVM and weighted logistic regression are provably noise-tolerant. On a synthetic non-separable dataset, our methods achieve over 88 accuracy even when 40 of the labels are corrupted, and are competitive with respect to recently proposed methods for dealing with label noise in several benchmark datasets. In this paper, we treat the problem of continuous pose estimation for object categories as a regression problem on the basis of only 2D training information. While regression is a natural framework for continuous problems, regression methods so far achieved inferior results with respect to 3D-based and 2D-based classification-and-refinement approaches. This may be attributed to their weakness to high intra-class variability as well as to noisy matching procedures and lack of geometrical constraints. We propose to apply regression to Fisher-encoded vectors computed from large cells by learning an array of Fisher regressors. Fisher encoding makes our algorithm flexible to variations in class appearance, while the array structure permits to indirectly introduce spatial context information in the approach. We formulate our problem as a MAP inference problem, where the likelihood function is composed of a generative term based on the prediction error generated by the ensemble of Fisher regressors as well as a discriminative term based on SVM classifiers. We test our algorithm on three publicly available datasets that envisage several difficulties, such as high intra-class variability, truncations, occlusions, and motion blur, obtaining state-of-the-art results.