In this paper, computational aspects of the panel aggregation problem are addressed. Motivated primarily by applications of risk assessment, an algorithm is developed for aggregating large corpora of internally incoherent probability assessments. The algorithm is characterized by a provable performance guarantee, and is demonstrated to be orders of magnitude faster than existing tools when tested on several real-world data-sets. In addition, unexpected connections between research in risk assessment and wireless sensor networks are exposed, as several key ideas are illustrated to be useful in both fields.
Linear averaging @cite_12 , @cite_1 is arguably the most popular aggregation principle, given its simplicity, various axiomatic justifications, and documented empirical success. To illustrate this natural approach, consider the panel exhibited in Table 2. Here, three judges provide forecasts for three events, a conjunction and its conjuncts. The Aggregate" forecast is the simple un-weighted average of the three judges' forecasts. Though appealing, linear averaging is not without pitfalls, as can be illustrated with a few examples.
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Distributed averaging describes a class of network algorithms for the decentralized computation of aggregate statistics. Initially, each node has a scalar data value, and the goal is to compute the average of these values at every node (the so-called average consensus problem). Nodes iteratively exchange information with their neighbors and perform local updates until the value at every node converges to the initial network average. Much previous work has focused on algorithms where each node maintains and updates a single value; every time an update is performed, the previous value is forgotten. Convergence to the average consensus is achieved asymptotically. The convergence rate is fundamentally limited by network connectivity, and it can be prohibitively slow on topologies such as grids and random geometric graphs, even if the update rules are optimized. In this paper, we provide the first theoretical demonstration that adding a local prediction component to the update rule can significantly improve the convergence rate of distributed averaging algorithms. We focus on the case where the local predictor is a linear combination of the node's current and previous values (i.e., two memory taps), and our update rule computes a combination of the predictor and the usual weighted linear combination of values received from neighboring nodes. We derive the optimal mixing parameter for combining the predictor with the neighbors' values, and conduct a theoretical analysis of the improvement in convergence rate that can be achieved using this acceleration methodology. For a chain topology on N nodes, this leads to a factor of N improvement over standard consensus, and for a two-dimensional grid, our approach achieves a factor of ?N improvement. Statistical aggregation is often used to combine multiple opinions within a group. Such aggregates outperform individuals, including experts, in various prediction and estimation tasks. This result is attributed to the “wisdom of crowds.” We seek to improve the quality of such aggregates by eliminating poorly performing individuals from the crowd. We propose a new measure of contribution to assess the judges' performance relative to the group and use positive contributors to build a weighting model for aggregating forecasts. In Study 1, we analyze 1,233 judges forecasting almost 200 current events to illustrate the superiority of our model over unweighted models and models weighted by measures of absolute performance. In Study 2, we replicate our findings by using economic forecasts from the European Central Bank and show how the method can be used to identify smaller crowds of the top positive contributors. We show that the model derives its power from identifying experts who consistently outperform the crowd. Data, as supplemental material, are available at http: dx.doi.org 10.1287 mnsc.2014.1909 . This paper was accepted by James Smith, decision analysis. In this paper, a novel algorithm to blindly separate an instantaneous linear underdetermined mixture of nonstationary sources is proposed. It means that the number of sources exceeds the number of channels of the available data. The separation is based on the working assumption that the sources are piecewise stationary with a different variance in each block. It proceeds in two steps: 1) estimating the mixing matrix, and 2) computing the optimum beamformer in each block to maximize the signal-to-interference ratio of each separated signal with respect to the remaining signals. Estimating the mixing matrix is accomplished through a specialized tensor decomposition of the set of sample covariance matrices of the received mixture in each block. It utilizes optimum weighting, which allows statistically efficient (CRB attaining) estimation provided that the data obey the assumed Gaussian piecewise stationary model. In simulations, performance of the algorithm is successfully tested on blind separation of 16 speech signals from nine linear instantaneous mixtures of these signals. This paper begins by presenting a simple model of the way in which experts estimate probabilities. The model is then used to construct a likelihood-based aggregation formula for combining multiple probability forecasts. The resulting aggregator has a simple analytical form that depends on a single, easily-interpretable parameter. This makes it computationally simple, attractive for further development, and robust against overfitting. Based on a large-scale dataset in which over 1300 experts tried to predict 69 geopolitical events, our aggregator is found to be superior to several widely-used aggregation algorithms.