We provide a framework for modeling social network formation through conditional multinomial logit models from discrete choice and random utility theory, in which each new edge is viewed as a “choice” made by a node to connect to another node, based on (generic) features of the other nodes available to make a connection. This perspective on network formation unifies existing models such as preferential attachment, triadic closure, and node fitness, which are all special cases, and thereby provides a flexible means for conceptualizing, estimating, and comparing models. The lens of discrete choice theory also provides several new tools for analyzing social network formation; for example, the significance of node features can be evaluated in a statistically rigorous manner, and mixtures of existing models can be estimated by adapting known expectation-maximization algorithms. We demonstrate the flexibility of our framework through examples that analyze a number of synthetic and real-world datasets. For example, we provide rigorous methods for estimating preferential attachment models and show how to separate the effects of preferential attachment and triadic closure. Non-parametric estimates of the importance of degree show a highly linear trend, and we expose the importance of looking carefully at nodes with degree zero. Examining the formation of a large citation graph, we find evidence for an increased role of degree when accounting for age.
Estimating the parameters that drive edge formation is different from identifying the factors that could have lead to the observed graph. There is vast literature on pursuing the latter question by estimating a logit model with maximum likelihood, called exponential random graph models (ERGMs) @cite_46 @cite_42 @cite_54 . However, these models do not consider individual edge events, are hard to estimate, and have known pathologies @cite_2 @cite_68 . Should check out TERGMs again, temporal ERGMs, and put that work in it's place here. I think Carter Butts is in that literature.
@cite_54 @cite_42 @cite_2 @cite_46 @cite_68
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We develop an information-theoretic view of the stochastic block model, a popular statistical model for the large-scale structure of complex networks. A graph G from such a model is generated by first assigning vertex labels at random from a finite alphabet, and then connecting vertices with edge probabilities depending on the labels of the endpoints. In the case of the symmetric two-group model, we establish an explicit ‘single-letter’ characterization of the per-vertex mutual information between the vertex labels and the graph, when the graph average degree diverges. The explicit expression of the mutual information is intimately related to estimation-theoretic quantities, and -in particular- reveals a phase transition at the critical point for community detection. Below the critical point the per-vertex mutual information is asymptotically the same as if edges were independent of the vertex labels. Correspondingly, no algorithm can estimate the partition better than random guessing. Conversely, above the threshold, the per-vertex mutual information is strictly smaller than the independent-edges upper bound. In this regime there exists a procedure that estimates the vertex labels better than random guessing. We develop an information-theoretic view of the stochastic block model, a popular statistical model for the large-scale structure of complex networks. A graph @math from such a model is generated by first assigning vertex labels at random from a finite alphabet, and then connecting vertices with edge probabilities depending on the labels of the endpoints. In the case of the symmetric two-group model, we establish an explicit single-letter' characterization of the per-vertex mutual information between the vertex labels and the graph. The explicit expression of the mutual information is intimately related to estimation-theoretic quantities, and --in particular-- reveals a phase transition at the critical point for community detection. Below the critical point the per-vertex mutual information is asymptotically the same as if edges were independent. Correspondingly, no algorithm can estimate the partition better than random guessing. Conversely, above the threshold, the per-vertex mutual information is strictly smaller than the independent-edges upper bound. In this regime there exists a procedure that estimates the vertex labels better than random guessing. We consider the popular and well-studied push model, which is used to spread information in a given network with n vertices. Initially, some vertex owns a rumour and passes it to one of its neighbours, which is chosen randomly. In each of the succeeding rounds, every vertex that knows the rumour informs a random neighbour. It has been shown on various network topologies that this algorithm succeeds in spreading the rumour within O(log n) rounds. However, many studies are quite coarse and involve huge constants that do not allow for a direct comparison between different network topologies. In this paper, we analyse the push model on several important families of graphs, and obtain tight runtime estimates. We first show that, for any almost-regular graph on n vertices with small spectral expansion, rumour spreading completes after log2n + log n+o(log n) rounds with high probability. This is the first result that exhibits a general graph class for which rumour spreading is essentially as fast as on complete graphs. Moreover, for the random graph G(n,p) with p=c log n n, where c > 1, we determine the runtime of rumour spreading to be log2n + γ (c)log n with high probability, where γ(c) = clog(c (c−1)). In particular, this shows that the assumption of almost regularity in our first result is necessary. Finally, for a hypercube on n=2d vertices, the runtime is with high probability at least (1+β) ⋅ (log2n + log n), where β > 0. This reveals that the push model on hypercubes is slower than on complete graphs, and thus shows that the assumption of small spectral expansion in our first result is also necessary. In addition, our results combined with the upper bound of O(log n) for the hypercube (see [11]) imply that the push model is faster on hypercubes than on a random graph G(n, clog n n), where c is sufficiently close to 1. The “classical” random graph models, in particular G(n,p), are “homogeneous,” in the sense that the degrees (for example) tend to be concentrated around a typical value. Many graphs arising in the real world do not have this property, having, for example, power-law degree distributions. Thus there has been a lot of recent interest in defining and studying “inhomogeneous” random graph models. One of the most studied properties of these new models is their “robustness”, or, equivalently, the “phase transition” as an edge density parameter is varied. For G(n,p), p = c n, the phase transition at c = 1 has been a central topic in the study of random graphs for well over 40 years. Many of the new inhomogeneous models are rather complicated; although there are exceptions, in most cases precise questions such as determining exactly the critical point of the phase transition are approachable only when there is independence between the edges. Fortunately, some models studied have this property already, and others can be approximated by models with independence. Here we introduce a very general model of an inhomogeneous random graph with (conditional) independence between the edges, which scales so that the number of edges is linear in the number of vertices. This scaling corresponds to the p = c n scaling for G(n,p) used to study the phase transition; also, it seems to be a property of many large real-world graphs. Our model includes as special cases many models previously studied. We show that, under one very weak assumption (that the expected number of edges is “what it should be”), many properties of the model can be determined, in particular the critical point of the phase transition, and the size of the giant component above the transition. We do this by relating our random graphs to branching processes, which are much easier to analyze. We also consider other properties of the model, showing, for example, that when there is a giant component, it is “stable”: for a typical random graph, no matter how we add or delete o(n) edges, the size of the giant component does not change by more than o(n). © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Random Struct. Alg., 31, 3–122, 2007