To manage and maintain large-scale cellular networks, operators need to know which sectors underperform at any given time. For this purpose, they use the so-called hot spot score, which is the result of a combination of multiple network measurements and reflects the instantaneous overall performance of individual sectors. While operators have a good understanding of the current performance of a network and its overall trend, forecasting the performance of each sector over time is a challenging task, as it is affected by both regular and non-regular events, triggered by human behavior and hardware failures. In this paper, we study the spatio-temporal patterns of the hot spot score and uncover its regularities. Based on our observations, we then explore the possibility to use recent measurements' history to predict future hot spots. To this end, we consider tree-based machine learning models, and study their performance as a function of time, amount of past data, and prediction horizon. Our results indicate that, compared to the best baseline, tree-based models can deliver up to 14 better forecasts for regular hot spots and 153 better forecasts for non-regular hot spots. The latter brings strong evidence that, for moderate horizons, forecasts can be made even for sectors exhibiting isolated, non-regular behavior. Overall, our work provides insight into the dynamics of cellular sectors and their predictability. It also paves the way for more proactive network operations with greater forecasting horizons.
After an exhaustive search, we have not been able to find any work that characterizes performance of hot spots in cellular networks using real data. The only exception could be the work by Nika et al. @cite_4 , where a data set with more than 700K users is analyzed to understand temporal characteristics of data hot spots. Predictability is assessed, but considering only hot spot repetitions at the exact time and location in the forthcoming week. However, we find that the focus of the work is not on performance, but on load, with hot spots being defined on the basis of relative daily cell traffic.
@cite_4
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The unprecedented growth in mobile data usage is posing significant challenges to cellular operators. One key challenge is how to provide quality of service to subscribers when their residing cell is experiencing a significant amount of traffic, i.e. becoming a traffic hotspot. In this paper, we perform an empirical study on data hotspots in today's cellular networks using a 9-week cellular dataset with 734K+ users and 5327 cell sites. Our analysis examines in details static and dynamic characteristics, predictability, and causes of data hotspots, and their correlation with call hotspots. We believe the understanding of these key issues will lead to more efficient and responsive resource management and thus better QoS provision in cellular networks. To the best of our knowledge, our work is the first to characterize in detail traffic hotspots in today's cellular networks using real data. Mobile cellular networks are becoming increasingly complex to manage while classical deployment optimization techniques and current solutions (i.e., cell densification, acquiring more spec­trum, etc.) are cost-ineffective and thus seen as stopgaps. This calls for development of novel approaches that leverage recent advances in storage memory, context-awareness, edge cloud computing, and falls into framework of big data. However, the big data by itself is yet another complex phenomena to handle and comes with its notorious 4V: Velocity, voracity, volume, and variety. In this work, we address these issues in optimization of 5G wireless networks via the notion of proactive caching at the base stations. In particular, we investigate the gains of proactive caching in terms of backhaul of-floadings and request satisfactions, while tackling the large-amount of available data for content popularity estimation. In order to estimate the content popularity, we first collect users' mobile traffic data from a Turkish telecom operator from several base stations in hours of time interval. Then, an analysis is carried out locally on a big data platform and the gains of proactive caching at the base stations are investigated via numerical simulations. It turns out that several gains are possible depending on the level of available information and storage size. For instance, with 10 of content ratings and 15.4 Gbyte of storage size (87 of total catalog size), proactive caching achieves 100 of request satisfaction and offloads 98 of the backhaul when considering 16 base stations. In this work we consider the problem of an optimal geographic placement of content in wireless cellular networks modelled by Poisson point processes. Specifically, for the typical user requesting some particular content and whose popularity follows a given law (e.g. Zipf), we calculate the probability of finding the content cached in one of the base stations. Wireless coverage follows the usual signal-to-interference-and noise ratio (SINR) model, or some variants of it. We formulate and solve the problem of an optimal randomized content placement policy, to maximize the user's hit probability. The result dictates that it is not always optimal to follow the standard policy “cache the most popular content, everywhere”. In fact, our numerical results regarding three different coverage scenarios, show that the optimal policy significantly increases the chances of hit under high-coverage regime, i.e., when the probabilities of coverage by more than just one station are high enough. During crowded events, cellular networks face voice and data traffic volumes that are often orders of magnitude higher than what they face during routine days. Despite the use of portable base stations for temporarily increasing communication capacity and free Wi-Fi access points for offloading Internet traffic from cellular base stations, crowded events still present significant challenges for cellular network operators looking to reduce dropped call events and improve Internet speeds. For effective cellular network design, management, and optimization, it is crucial to understand how cellular network performance degrades during crowded events, what causes this degradation, and how practical mitigation schemes would perform in real-life crowded events. This paper makes a first step towards this end by characterizing the operational performance of a tier-1 cellular network in the United States during two high-profile crowded events in 2012. We illustrate how the changes in population distribution, user behavior, and application workload during crowded events result in significant voice and data performance degradation, including more than two orders of magnitude increase in connection failures. Our findings suggest two mechanisms that can improve performance without resorting to costly infrastructure changes: radio resource allocation tuning and opportunistic connection sharing. Using trace-driven simulations, we show that more aggressive release of radio resources via 1-2 seconds shorter RRC timeouts as compared to routine days helps to achieve better tradeoff between wasted radio resources, energy consumption, and delay during crowded events; and opportunistic connection sharing can reduce connection failures by 95 when employed by a small number of devices in each cell sector.