We present our Zero Energy Network'' (ZEN) protocol stack for energy harvesting wireless sensor networks applications. The novelty in our work is @math fold: (1) Energy harvesting aware fully featured MAC layer. Carrier sensing, Backoff algorithms, ARQ, RTS CTS mechanisms, Adaptive Duty Cycling are either auto configurable or available as tunable parameters to match the available energy (b) Energy harvesting aware Routing Protocol. The multi-hop network establishes routes to the base station using a modified version of AODVjr routing protocol assisted by energy predictions. (c) Application of a time series called Holt-Winters'' for predicting the incoming energy. (d) A distributed smart application running over the ZEN stack which utilizes a multi parameter optimized perturbation technique to optimally use the available energy. The application is capable of programming the ZEN stack in an energy efficient manner. The energy harvested distributed smart application runs on a realistic solar energy trace with a three year seasonality database. We implement a smart application, capable of modifying itself to suit its own as well as the network's energy level. Our analytical results show a close match with the measurements conducted over EHWSN testbed.
Accurate prediction of the energy is an important factor for energy neutral operations. Time series based energy predictions are commonly used for predicting solar energy. Exponential Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) is commonly applied for future energy predictions @cite_8 , @cite_18 and assigns weights to data in the time series, assigning lower weights to older data and giving importance to more recently acquired data. Holt-Winters (HW) time series is widely used in stock markets trend analysis, production planning, healthcare decisions on staffing & purchasing, demand forecasting @cite_12 and for predicting share prices where forecast value takes trend and seasonal variation into account @cite_4 , @cite_2 . In @cite_26 a three state markov chain model is used to predict the solar energy source and their transition probabilities are restricted for day time only. Energy samples from a simulation model are also generated from the model.
@cite_18 @cite_26 @cite_4 @cite_8 @cite_2 @cite_12
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Abstract This paper proposes a stochastic and dynamic mixed-integer linear program (SD-MILP) for optimal coordinated bidding of a risk-averse profit-maximizing hydropower producer. The day-ahead, intra-day, and real-time markets are considered. To model and predict day-ahead, intra-day, and real-time prices, the Holt–Winter (HW) and the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) predictors are combined using a proposed Markov switch. The discrete behavior of intra-day and real-time prices is modeled as different Markov states. The proposed Markov-based HW–GARCH model with a standard scenario generation-reduction technique is used to capture the uncertainty in day-ahead, intra-day, and real-time prices. The time-dependent conditional value at risk (T-CVaR) is proposed to model the risk of trading in different considered markets. The convex combination of the expected profit and T-CVaR is used as the objective of SD-MILP. The Markov-based HW–GARCH is modeled in Matlab and the SD-MILP is coded in GAMS. The Markov-based HW–GARCH predictor and the SD-MILP are used to develop the bidding curve of a three-reservoir hydropower producer using the electricity prices from the Nordic power market. To further examine the developed models a seven-reservoir hydropower producer is also studied. For these two cases, the coordinated bidding curves are derived and discussed. Recently, Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) begin to use the solar energy. But the energy from the environment is usually unstable, An efficient solar prediction algorithm should be studied. In this paper, a novel solar energy prediction algorithm, namely Weather-Conditioned Selective Moving Average (WCSMA), is proposed by using the trend similarity of energy harvesting and the classification of sunny and cloudy days. The simulation results show that the relative mean error of WCSMA algorithm only around 10 , and it is much lower than the Exponential Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) algorithm which is widely used now. This paper considers univariate online electricity demand forecasting for lead times from a half-hour-ahead to a day-ahead. A time series of demand recorded at half-hourly intervals contains more than one seasonal pattern. A within-day seasonal cycle is apparent from the similarity of the demand profile from one day to the next, and a within-week seasonal cycle is evident when one compares the demand on the corresponding day of adjacent weeks. There is strong appeal in using a forecasting method that is able to capture both seasonalities. The multiplicative seasonal ARIMA model has been adapted for this purpose. In this paper, we adapt the Holt-Winters exponential smoothing formulation so that it can accommodate two seasonalities. We correct for residual autocorrelation using a simple autoregressive model. The forecasts produced by the new double seasonal Holt-Winters method outperform those from traditional Holt-Winters and from a well-specified multiplicative double seasonal ARIMA model. Realistic time-resolved data on occupant behaviour, presence and energy use are important inputs to various types of simulations, including performance of small-scale energy systems and buildings' indoor climate, use of lighting and energy demand. This paper presents a modelling framework for stochastic generation of high-resolution series of such data. The model generates both synthetic activity sequences of individual household members, including occupancy states, and domestic electricity demand based on these patterns. The activity-generating model, based on non-homogeneous Markov chains that are tuned to an extensive empirical time-use data set, creates a realistic spread of activities over time, down to a 1-min resolution. A detailed validation against measurements shows that modelled power demand data for individual households as well as aggregate demand for an arbitrary number of households are highly realistic in terms of end-use composition, annual and diurnal variations, diversity between households, short time-scale fluctuations and load coincidence. An important aim with the model development has been to maintain a sound balance between complexity and output quality. Although the model yields a high-quality output, the proposed model structure is uncomplicated in comparison to other available domestic load models.