While it has long been believed in psychology that weather somehow influences human's mood, the debates have been going on for decades about how they are correlated. In this paper, we try to study this long-lasting topic by harnessing a new source of data compared from traditional psychological researches: Twitter. We analyze 2 years' twitter data collected by twitter API which amounts to @math of all postings and try to reveal the correlations between multiple dimensional structure of human mood with meteorological effects. Some of our findings confirm existing hypotheses, while others contradict them. We are hopeful that our approach, along with the new data source, can shed on the long-going debates on weather-mood correlation.
As Twitter mood indicators have been demonstrated as both robust and sensitive @cite_22 @cite_47 , researchers are exploring ways to predict a variety of real-world outcomes based on indicators, such as economics @cite_16 @cite_6 @cite_1 @cite_51 , stock market @cite_26 @cite_33 or political events @cite_60 @cite_50 @cite_59 @cite_11 or disease @cite_57 @cite_17 . Lindsay @cite_34 built a sentiment classifier with Facebook data set and demonstrates the significant correlation between microblog sentiments and polls during 2008 presidential election. O' @cite_50 tried to predict political events based on user-mood analysis on twitter.
@cite_26 @cite_22 @cite_33 @cite_60 @cite_1 @cite_17 @cite_6 @cite_34 @cite_57 @cite_50 @cite_59 @cite_47 @cite_16 @cite_51 @cite_11
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We perform a sentiment analysis of all tweets published on the microblogging platform Twitter in the second half of 2008. We use a psychometric instrument to extract six mood states (tension, depression, anger, vigor, fatigue, confusion) from the aggregated Twitter content and compute a six-dimensional mood vector for each day in the timeline. We compare our results to a record of popular events gathered from media and sources. We find that events in the social, political, cultural and economic sphere do have a significant, immediate and highly specific effect on the various dimensions of public mood. We speculate that large scale analyses of mood can provide a solid platform to model collective emotive trends in terms of their predictive value with regards to existing social as well as economic indicators. Microblogging is a form of online communication by which users broadcast brief text updates, also known as tweets, to the public or a selected circle of contacts. A variegated mosaic of microblogging uses has emerged since the launch of Twitter in 2006: daily chatter, conversation, information sharing, and news commentary, among others. Regardless of their content and intended use, tweets often convey pertinent information about their author's mood status. As such, tweets can be regarded as temporally-authentic microscopic instantiations of public mood state. In this article, we perform a sentiment analysis of all public tweets broadcasted by Twitter users between August 1 and December 20, 2008. For every day in the timeline, we extract six dimensions of mood (tension, depression, anger, vigor, fatigue, confusion) using an extended version of the Profile of Mood States (POMS), a well-established psychometric instrument. We compare our results to fluctuations recorded by stock market and crude oil price indices and major events in media and popular culture, such as the U.S. Presidential Election of November 4, 2008 and Thanksgiving Day. We find that events in the social, political, cultural and economic sphere do have a significant, immediate and highly specific effect on the various dimensions of public mood. We speculate that large scale analyses of mood can provide a solid platform to model collective emotive trends in terms of their predictive value with regards to existing social as well as economic indicators. Behavioral economics tells us that emotions can profoundly affect individual behavior and decision-making. Does this also apply to societies at large, i.e. can societies experience mood states that affect their collective decision making? By extension is the public mood correlated or even predictive of economic indicators? Here we investigate whether measurements of collective mood states derived from large-scale Twitter feeds are correlated to the value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) over time. We analyze the text content of daily Twitter feeds by two mood tracking tools, namely OpinionFinder that measures positive vs. negative mood and Google-Profile of Mood States (GPOMS) that measures mood in terms of 6 dimensions (Calm, Alert, Sure, Vital, Kind, and Happy). We cross-validate the resulting mood time series by comparing their ability to detect the public's response to the presidential election and Thanksgiving day in 2008. A Granger causality analysis and a Self-Organizing Fuzzy Neural Network are then used to investigate the hypothesis that public mood states, as measured by the OpinionFinder and GPOMS mood time series, are predictive of changes in DJIA closing values. Our results indicate that the accuracy of DJIA predictions can be significantly improved by the inclusion of specific public mood dimensions but not others. We find an accuracy of 87.6 in predicting the daily up and down changes in the closing values of the DJIA and a reduction of the Mean Average Percentage Error by more than 6 . Index Terms—stock market prediction — twitter — mood analysis. The increasing adoption of social media provides unprecedented opportunities to gain insight into human nature at vastly broader scales. Regarding the study of population-wide sentiment, prior research commonly focuses on text-based analyses and ignores a treasure trove of sentiment-laden content: images. In this paper, we make methodological and computational contributions by introducing the Smile Index as a formalized measure of societ al happiness. Detecting smiles in 9 million geo-located tweets over 16 months, we validate our Smile Index against both text-based techniques and self-reported happiness. We further make observational contributions by applying our metric to explore temporal trends in sentiment, relate public mood to societ al events, and predict economic indicators. Reflecting upon the innate, language-independent aspects of facial expressions, we recommend future improvements and applications to enable robust, global-level analyses. We conclude with implications for researchers studying and facilitating the expression of collective emotion through socio-technical systems.