We propose a new approach to value function approximation which combines linear temporal difference reinforcement learning with subspace identification. In practical applications, reinforcement learning (RL) is complicated by the fact that state is either high-dimensional or partially observable. Therefore, RL methods are designed to work with features of state rather than state itself, and the success or failure of learning is often determined by the suitability of the selected features. By comparison, subspace identification (SSID) methods are designed to select a feature set which preserves as much information as possible about state. In this paper we connect the two approaches, looking at the problem of reinforcement learning with a large set of features, each of which may only be marginally useful for value function approximation. We introduce a new algorithm for this situation, called Predictive State Temporal Difference (PSTD) learning. As in SSID for predictive state representations, PSTD finds a linear compression operator that projects a large set of features down to a small set that preserves the maximum amount of predictive information. As in RL, PSTD then uses a Bellman recursion to estimate a value function. We discuss the connection between PSTD and prior approaches in RL and SSID. We prove that PSTD is statistically consistent, perform several experiments that illustrate its properties, and demonstrate its potential on a difficult optimal stopping problem.
Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) extend MDPs to situations where the state is not directly observable @cite_31 @cite_14 @cite_29 . In this circumstance, an agent can plan using a continuous with dimensionality equal to the number of hidden states in the POMDP @. When the number of hidden states is large, dimensionality reduction in POMDPs can be achieved by projecting a high dimensional belief space to a lower dimensional one; of course, the difficulty is to find a projection which preserves decision quality. Strategies for finding good projections include value-directed compression @cite_15 and non-negative matrix factorization @cite_3 @cite_21 . The resulting model after compression is a Predictive State Representation (PSR) @cite_36 @cite_6 , an Observable Operator Model @cite_30 , or a multiplicity automaton @cite_26 . Moving to one of these representations can often compress a POMDP by a large factor with little or no loss in accuracy: examples exist with arbitrarily large lossless compression factors, and in practice, we can often achieve large compression ratios with little loss.
@cite_30 @cite_14 @cite_26 @cite_15 @cite_36 @cite_29 @cite_21 @cite_3 @cite_6 @cite_31
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This paper explains how Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) can provide a principled mathematical framework for modelling the inherent uncertainty in spoken dialogue systems. It briefly summarises the basic mathematics and explains why exact optimisation is intractable. It then describes in some detail a form of approximation called the Hidden Information State model which does scale and which can be used to build practical systems. A prototype HIS system for the tourist information domain is evaluated and compared with a baseline MDP system using both user simulations and a live user trial. The results give strong support to the central contention that the POMDP-based framework is both a tractable and powerful approach to building more robust spoken dialogue systems. Standard value function approaches to finding policies for Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) are generally considered to be intractable for large models. The intractability of these algorithms is to a large extent a consequence of computing an exact, optimal policy over the entire belief space. However, in real-world POMDP problems, computing the optimal policy for the full belief space is often unnecessary for good control even for problems with complicated policy classes. The beliefs experienced by the controller often lie near a structured, low-dimensional subspace embedded in the high-dimensional belief space. Finding a good approximation to the optimal value function for only this subspace can be much easier than computing the full value function. We introduce a new method for solving large-scale POMDPs by reducing the dimensionality of the belief space. We use Exponential family Principal Components Analysis (Collins, Dasgupta, & Schapire, 2002) to represent sparse, high-dimensional belief spaces using small sets of learned features of the belief state. We then plan only in terms of the low-dimensional belief features. By planning in this low-dimensional space, we can find policies for POMDP models that are orders of magnitude larger than models that can be handled by conventional techniques. We demonstrate the use of this algorithm on a synthetic problem and on mobile robot navigation tasks. We introduce a highly efficient method for solving continuous partially-observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) in which beliefs can be modeled using Gaussian distributions over the state space. Our method enables fast solutions to sequential decision making under uncertainty for a variety of problems involving noisy or incomplete observations and stochastic actions. We present an efficient approach to compute locally-valid approximations to the value function over continuous spaces in time polynomial (O[n4]) in the dimension n of the state space. To directly tackle the intractability of solving general POMDPs, we leverage the assumption that beliefs are Gaussian distributions over the state space, approximate the belief update using an extended Kalman filter (EKF), and represent the value function by a function that is quadratic in the mean and linear in the variance of the belief. Our approach iterates towards a linear control policy over the state space that is locally-optimal with respect to a user defined cost function, and is approximately valid in the vicinity of a nominal trajectory through belief space. We demonstrate the scalability and potential of our approach on problems inspired by robot navigation under uncertainty for state spaces of up to 128 dimensions. High dimensionality of POMDP's belief state space is one major cause that makes the underlying optimal policy computation intractable. Belief compression refers to the methodology that projects the belief state space to a low-dimensional one to alleviate the problem. In this paper, we propose a novel orthogonal non-negative matrix factorization (O-NMF) for the projection. The proposed O-NMF not only factors the belief state space by minimizing the reconstruction error, but also allows the compressed POMDP formulation to be efficiently computed (due to its orthogonality) in a value-directed manner so that the value function will take same values for corresponding belief states in the original and compressed state spaces. We have tested the proposed approach using a number of benchmark problems and the empirical results confirms its effectiveness in achieving substantial computational cost saving in policy computation.