Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) place priors over the parameters in a neural network. Inference in BNNs, however, is difficult; all inference methods for BNNs are approximate. In this work, we empirically compare the quality of predictive uncertainty estimates for 10 common inference methods on both regression and classification tasks. Our experiments demonstrate that commonly used metrics (e.g. test log-likelihood) can be misleading. Our experiments also indicate that inference innovations designed to capture structure in the posterior do not necessarily produce high quality posterior approximations.
As a result, much effort has been spent on variational methods. Mean Field Variational Bayes for BNNs were in introduced in @cite_3 , the gradient computation of which was later improved in Bayes by Backprop (BBB) . However, the fully factorized Gaussian variational family used in BBB is unable to capture correlation amongst the parameters in the posterior. In contrast, Matrix Gaussian Posteriors (MVG) @cite_2 , Multiplicative Normalizing Flows (MNF) @cite_8 , and Bayes by Hypernet (BBH) @cite_7 are explicitly designed to capture posterior correlation by imposing structured approximation families; works like Black Box @math -Divergence @cite_1 and Probabilistic Backpropagation (PBP) use a richer family of divergence measures, encouraging approximate posteriors to capture important properties of true posterior distributions.
@cite_7 @cite_8 @cite_1 @cite_3 @cite_2
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Variational Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) perform variational inference over weights, but it is difficult to specify meaningful priors and approximate posteriors in a high-dimensional weight space. We introduce functional variational Bayesian neural networks (fBNNs), which maximize an Evidence Lower BOund (ELBO) defined directly on stochastic processes, i.e. distributions over functions. We prove that the KL divergence between stochastic processes equals the supremum of marginal KL divergences over all finite sets of inputs. Based on this, we introduce a practical training objective which approximates the functional ELBO using finite measurement sets and the spectral Stein gradient estimator. With fBNNs, we can specify priors entailing rich structures, including Gaussian processes and implicit stochastic processes. Empirically, we find fBNNs extrapolate well using various structured priors, provide reliable uncertainty estimates, and scale to large datasets. Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) hold great promise as a flexible and principled solution to deal with uncertainty when learning from finite data. Among approaches to realize probabilistic inference in deep neural networks, variational Bayes (VB) is theoretically grounded, generally applicable, and computationally efficient. With wide recognition of potential advantages, why is it that variational Bayes has seen very limited practical use for BNNs in real applications? We argue that variational inference in neural networks is fragile: successful implementations require careful initialization and tuning of prior variances, as well as controlling the variance of Monte Carlo gradient estimates. We fix VB and turn it into a robust inference tool for Bayesian neural networks. We achieve this with two innovations: first, we introduce a novel deterministic method to approximate moments in neural networks, eliminating gradient variance; second, we introduce a hierarchical prior for parameters and a novel empirical Bayes procedure for automatically selecting prior variances. Combining these two innovations, the resulting method is highly efficient and robust. On the application of heteroscedastic regression we demonstrate strong predictive performance over alternative approaches. We provide a general framework for privacy-preserving variational Bayes (VB) for a large class of probabilistic models, called the conjugate exponential (CE) family. Our primary observation is that when models are in the CE family, we can privatise the variational posterior distributions simply by perturbing the expected sufficient statistics of the complete-data likelihood. For widely used non-CE models with binomial likelihoods, we exploit the P 'o lya-Gamma data augmentation scheme to bring such models into the CE family, such that inferences in the modified model resemble the private variational Bayes algorithm as closely as possible. The iterative nature of variational Bayes presents a further challenge since iterations increase the amount of noise needed. We overcome this by combining: (1) a relaxed notion of differential privacy, called concentrated differential privacy, which provides a tight bound on the privacy cost of multiple VB iterations and thus significantly decreases the amount of additive noise; and (2) the privacy amplification effect of subsampling mini-batches from large-scale data in stochastic learning. We empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in CE and non-CE models including latent Dirichlet allocation, Bayesian logistic regression, and sigmoid belief networks, evaluated on real-world datasets. We investigate a local reparameterizaton technique for greatly reducing the variance of stochastic gradients for variational Bayesian inference (SGVB) of a posterior over model parameters, while retaining parallelizability. This local reparameterization translates uncertainty about global parameters into local noise that is independent across datapoints in the minibatch. Such parameterizations can be trivially parallelized and have variance that is inversely proportional to the mini-batch size, generally leading to much faster convergence. Additionally, we explore a connection with dropout: Gaussian dropout objectives correspond to SGVB with local reparameterization, a scale-invariant prior and proportionally fixed posterior variance. Our method allows inference of more flexibly parameterized posteriors; specifically, we propose variational dropout, a generalization of Gaussian dropout where the dropout rates are learned, often leading to better models. The method is demonstrated through several experiments.