The increasing use of renewable energy sources with variable output, such as solar photovoltaic and wind power generation, calls for Smart Grids that effectively manage flexible loads and energy storage. The ability to forecast consumption at different locations in distribution systems will be a key capability of Smart Grids. The goal of this paper is to benchmark state-of-the-art methods for forecasting electricity demand on the household level across different granularities and time scales in an explorative way, thereby revealing potential shortcomings and find promising directions for future research in this area. We apply a number of forecasting methods including ARIMA, neural networks, and exponential smoothening using several strategies for training data selection, in particular day type and sliding window based strategies. We consider forecasting horizons ranging between 15 minutes and 24 hours. Our evaluation is based on two data sets containing the power usage of individual appliances at second time granularity collected over the course of several months. The results indicate that forecasting accuracy varies significantly depending on the choice of forecasting methods strategy and the parameter configuration. Measured by the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), the considered state-of-the-art forecasting methods rarely beat corresponding persistence forecasts. Overall, we observed MAPEs in the range between 5 and >100 . The average MAPE for the first data set was 30 , while it was 85 for the other data set. These results show big room for improvement. Based on the identified trends and experiences from our experiments, we contribute a detailed discussion of promising future research.
Demand side management and demand response receive increasing attention by research and industry. The research work published so far includes a variety of directions from direct load control or targeted customer interaction to indirect incentive-based control (see @cite_18 for an overview). In order to help balancing demand and supply, demand side management programs require accurate predictions of consumer demand.
@cite_18
2026647281 2014891227 2044689796 2068060907
This paper mainly focuses on demand side management and demand response, including drivers and benefits, shiftable load scheduling methods and peak shaving techniques. Demand side management techniques found in literature are overviewed and a novel electricity demand control technique using real-time pricing is proposed. Currently users have no means to change their power consumption to benefit the whole system. The proposed method consists of modern system identification and control that would enable user side load control. This would potentially balance demand side with supply side more effectively and would also reduce peak demand and make the whole system more efficient. Demand-side energy management improves robustness and efficiency in Smart Grids. Load-adjustment and load-shifting are performed to match demand to available supply. These operations come at a discomfort cost for consumers as their lifestyle is influenced when they adjust or shift in time their demand. Performance of demand-side energy management mainly concerns how robustness is maximized or discomfort is minimized. However, measuring and controlling the distribution of discomfort as perceived between different consumers provides an enriched notion of fairness in demand-side energy management that is missing in current approaches. This paper defines unfairness in demand-side energy management and shows how unfairness is measurable and controllable by software agents that plan energy demand in a decentralized fashion. Experimental evaluation using real demand and survey data from two operational Smart Grid projects confirms these findings. © 2014 IEEE. Demand-side Demand-side control is playing an increasingly important role in smart grid control strategies. Modeling the dynamical behavior of a large population of appliances is especially important to evaluate the effectiveness of various load control strategies. In this paper, a high accuracy aggregated model is first developed for a population of HVAC units. The model efficiently includes statistical information of the population, systematically deals with heterogeneity, and accounts for a second-order effect necessary to accurately capture the transient dynamics in the collective response. Furthermore, the model takes into account the lockout effect of the compressor in order to represent the dynamics of the system under control more accurately. Then, a novel closed loop load control strategy is designed to track a desired demand curve and to ensure a stable and smooth response. Most of the existing demand-side management programs focus primarily on the interactions between a utility company and its customers users. In this paper, we present an autonomous and distributed demand-side energy management system among users that takes advantage of a two-way digital communication infrastructure which is envisioned in the future smart grid. We use game theory and formulate an energy consumption scheduling game, where the players are the users and their strategies are the daily schedules of their household appliances and loads. It is assumed that the utility company can adopt adequate pricing tariffs that differentiate the energy usage in time and level. We show that for a common scenario, with a single utility company serving multiple customers, the global optimal performance in terms of minimizing the energy costs is achieved at the Nash equilibrium of the formulated energy consumption scheduling game. The proposed distributed demand-side energy management strategy requires each user to simply apply its best response strategy to the current total load and tariffs in the power distribution system. The users can maintain privacy and do not need to reveal the details on their energy consumption schedules to other users. We also show that users will have the incentives to participate in the energy consumption scheduling game and subscribing to such services. Simulation results confirm that the proposed approach can reduce the peak-to-average ratio of the total energy demand, the total energy costs, as well as each user's individual daily electricity charges.