Anticipating possible behaviors of traffic participants is an essential capability of autonomous vehicles. Many behavior detection and maneuver recognition methods only have a very limited prediction horizon that leaves inadequate time and space for planning. To avoid unsatisfactory reactive decisions, it is essential to count long-term future rewards in planning, which requires extending the prediction horizon. In this paper, we uncover that clues to vehicle behaviors over an extended horizon can be found in vehicle interaction, which makes it possible to anticipate the likelihood of a certain behavior, even in the absence of any clear maneuver pattern. We adopt a recurrent neural network (RNN) for observation encoding, and based on that, we propose a novel vehicle behavior interaction network (VBIN) to capture the vehicle interaction from the hidden states and connection feature of each interaction pair. The output of our method is a probabilistic likelihood of multiple behavior classes, which matches the multimodal and uncertain nature of the distant future. A systematic comparison of our method against two state-of-the-art methods and another two baseline methods on a publicly available real highway dataset is provided, showing that our method has superior accuracy and advanced capability for interaction modeling.
Many methods focus on trajectory prediction and generate a time-profiled trajectory directly. Regression methods, such as linear regressions @cite_2 and non-linear Gaussian process regression models @cite_10 @cite_26 @cite_17 , are extensively studied. Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have recently been widely applied to various trajectory prediction tasks including trajectory prediction for pedestrians and vehicles. For vehicles, apart from predicting trajectories, many methods also aim to predict high-level intentions @cite_1 @cite_3 @cite_11 @cite_27 . Moreover, some recent works suggest that trajectory prediction can be augmented by the prediction of high-level semantic behaviors, e.g., LCs and insertions, due to the multimodal nature of the problem @cite_0 @cite_6 @cite_21 . In this paper, we focus on the behavior prediction problem.
@cite_26 @cite_11 @cite_21 @cite_1 @cite_3 @cite_6 @cite_0 @cite_27 @cite_2 @cite_10 @cite_17
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Pedestrians follow different trajectories to avoid obstacles and accommodate fellow pedestrians. Any autonomous vehicle navigating such a scene should be able to foresee the future positions of pedestrians and accordingly adjust its path to avoid collisions. This problem of trajectory prediction can be viewed as a sequence generation task, where we are interested in predicting the future trajectory of people based on their past positions. Following the recent success of Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) models for sequence prediction tasks, we propose an LSTM model which can learn general human movement and predict their future trajectories. This is in contrast to traditional approaches which use hand-crafted functions such as Social forces. We demonstrate the performance of our method on several public datasets. Our model outperforms state-of-the-art methods on some of these datasets. We also analyze the trajectories predicted by our model to demonstrate the motion behaviour learned by our model. We present an interpretable framework for path prediction that learns scene-specific causations behind agents' behaviors. We exploit two sources of information: the past motion trajectory of the agent of interest and a wide top-down view of the scene. We propose a Clairvoyant Attentive Recurrent Network (CAR-Net) that learns "where to look" in the large image when solving the path prediction task. While previous works on trajectory prediction are constrained to either use semantic information or hand-crafted regions centered around the agent, our method has the capacity to select any region within the image, e.g., a far-away curve when predicting the change of speed of vehicles. To study our goal towards learning observable causality behind agents' behaviors, we have built a new dataset made of top view images of hundreds of scenes (e.g., F1 racing circuits) where the vehicles are governed by known specific regions within the images (e.g., upcoming curves). Our algorithm successfully selects these regions, learns navigation patterns that generalize to unseen maps, outperforms previous works in terms of prediction accuracy on publicly available datasets, and provides human-interpretable static scene-specific dependencies. We present an interpretable framework for path prediction that leverages dependencies between agents’ behaviors and their spatial navigation environment. We exploit two sources of information: the past motion trajectory of the agent of interest and a wide top-view image of the navigation scene. We propose a Clairvoyant Attentive Recurrent Network (CAR-Net) that learns where to look in a large image of the scene when solving the path prediction task. Our method can attend to any area, or combination of areas, within the raw image (e.g., road intersections) when predicting the trajectory of the agent. This allows us to visualize fine-grained semantic elements of navigation scenes that influence the prediction of trajectories. To study the impact of space on agents’ trajectories, we build a new dataset made of top-view images of hundreds of scenes (Formula One racing tracks) where agents’ behaviors are heavily influenced by known areas in the images (e.g., upcoming turns). CAR-Net successfully attends to these salient regions. Additionally, CAR-Net reaches state-of-the-art accuracy on the standard trajectory forecasting benchmark, Stanford Drone Dataset (SDD). Finally, we show CAR-Net’s ability to generalize to unseen scenes. In this paper, we propose an efficient vehicle trajectory prediction framework based on recurrent neural network. Basically, the characteristic of the vehicle's trajectory is different from that of regular moving objects since it is affected by various latent factors including road structure, traffic rules, and driver's intention. Previous state of the art approaches use sophisticated vehicle behavior model describing these factors and derive the complex trajectory prediction algorithm, which requires a system designer to conduct intensive model optimization for practical use. Our approach is data-driven and simple to use in that it learns complex behavior of the vehicles from the massive amount of trajectory data through deep neural network model. The proposed trajectory prediction method employs the recurrent neural network called long short-term memory (LSTM) to analyze the temporal behavior and predict the future coordinate of the surrounding vehicles. The proposed scheme feeds the sequence of vehicles' coordinates obtained from sensor measurements to the LSTM and produces the probabilistic information on the future location of the vehicles over occupancy grid map. The experiments conducted using the data collected from highway driving show that the proposed method can produce reasonably good estimate of future trajectory. Many problems in machine learning and computer vision consist of predicting multi-dimensional output vectors given a specific set of input features. In many of these problems, there exist inherent temporal and spatial dependencies between the output vectors, as well as repeating output patterns and input-output associations, that can provide more robust and accurate predictors when modeled properly. With this intrinsic motivation, we propose a novel Output-Associative Relevance Vector Machine (OA-RVM) regression framework that augments the traditional RVM regression by being able to learn non-linear input and output dependencies. Instead of depending solely on the input patterns, OA-RVM models output covariances within a predefined temporal window, thus capturing past, current and future context. As a result, output patterns manifested in the training data are captured within a formal probabilistic framework, and subsequently used during inference. As a proof of concept, we target the highly challenging problem of dimensional and continuous prediction of emotions, and evaluate the proposed framework by focusing on the case of multiple nonverbal cues, namely facial expressions, shoulder movements and audio cues. We demonstrate the advantages of the proposed OA-RVM regression by performing subject-independent evaluation using the SAL database that constitutes naturalistic conversational interactions. The experimental results show that OA-RVM regression outperforms the traditional RVM and SVM regression approaches in terms of accuracy of the prediction (evaluated using the Root Mean Squared Error) and structure of the prediction (evaluated using the correlation coefficient), generating more accurate and robust prediction models. Future vehicle systems for active pedestrian safety will not only require a high recognition performance but also an accurate analysis of the developing traffic situation. In this paper, we present a study on pedestrian path prediction and action classification at short subsecond time intervals. We consider four representative approaches: two novel approaches (based on Gaussian process dynamical models and probabilistic hierarchical trajectory matching) that use augmented features derived from dense optical flow and two approaches as baseline that use positional information only (a Kalman filter and its extension to interacting multiple models). In experiments using stereo vision data obtained from a vehicle, we investigate the accuracy of path prediction and action classification at various time horizons, the effect of various errors (image localization, vehicle egomotion estimation), and the benefit of the proposed approaches. The scenario of interest is that of a crossing pedestrian, who might stop or continue walking at the road curbside. Results indicate similar performance of the four approaches on walking motion, with near-linear dynamics. During stopping, however, the two newly proposed approaches, with nonlinear and or higher order models and augmented motion features, achieve a more accurate position prediction of 10-50 cm at a time horizon of 0-0.77 s around the stopping event. This paper examines techniques for finding falsifying trajectories of hybrid systems using an approach that we call trajectory splicing. Many formal verification techniques for hybrid systems, including flowpipe construction, can identify plausible abstract counterexamples for property violations. However, there is often a gap between the reported abstract counterexamples and the concrete system trajectories. Our approach starts with a candidate sequence of disconnected trajectory segments, each segment lying inside a discrete mode. However, such disconnected segments do not form concrete violations due to the gaps that exist between the ending state of one segment and the starting state of the subsequent segment. Therefore, trajectory splicing uses local optimization to minimize the gap between these segments, effectively splicing them together to form a concrete trajectory. We demonstrate the use of our approach for falsifying safety properties of hybrid systems using standard optimization techniques. As such, our approach is not restricted to linear systems. We compare our approach with other falsification approaches including uniform random sampling and a robustness guided falsification approach used in the tool S-Taliro. Our preliminary evaluation clearly shows the potential of our approach to search for candidate trajectory segments and use them to find concrete property violations. We propose a Dynamic-Spatial-Attention (DSA) Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) for anticipating accidents in dashcam videos (Fig. 1). Our DSA-RNN learns to (1) distribute soft-attention to candidate objects dynamically to gather subtle cues and (2) model the temporal dependencies of all cues to robustly anticipate an accident. Anticipating accidents is much less addressed than anticipating events such as changing a lane, making a turn, etc., since accidents are rare to be observed and can happen in many different ways mostly in a sudden. To overcome these challenges, we (1) utilize state-of-the-art object detector [3] to detect candidate objects, and (2) incorporate full-frame and object-based appearance and motion features in our model. We also harvest a diverse dataset of 678 dashcam accident videos on the web (Fig. 3). The dataset is unique, since various accidents (e.g., a motorbike hits a car, a car hits another car, etc.) occur in all videos. We manually mark the time-location of accidents and use them as supervision to train and evaluate our method. We show that our method anticipates accidents about 2 s before they occur with 80 recall and 56.14 precision. Most importantly, it achieves the highest mean average precision (74.35 ) outperforming other baselines without attention or RNN. This paper presents a novel 3DOF pedestrian trajectory prediction approach for autonomous mobile service robots. While most previously reported methods are based on learning of 2D positions in monocular camera images, our approach uses range-finder sensors to learn and predict 3DOF pose trajectories (i.e. 2D position plus 1D rotation within the world coordinate system). Our approach, T-Pose-LSTM (Temporal 3DOF-Pose Long-Short-Term Memory), is trained using long-term data from real-world robot deployments and aims to learn context-dependent (environment- and time-specific) human activities. Our approach incorporates long-term temporal information (i.e. date and time) with short-term pose observations as input. A sequence-to-sequence LSTM encoder-decoder is trained, which encodes observations into LSTM and then decodes as predictions. For deployment, it can perform on-the-fly prediction in real-time. Instead of using manually annotated data, we rely on a robust human detection, tracking and SLAM system, providing us with examples in a global coordinate system. We validate the approach using more than 15K pedestrian trajectories recorded in a care home environment over a period of three months. The experiment shows that the proposed T-Pose-LSTM model advances the state-of-the-art 2D-based method for human trajectory prediction in long-term mobile robot deployments. Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are a very recent technique to model long range dependencies in natural languages. They have clearly outperformed trigrams and other more advanced language modeling techniques by using non-linearly modeling long range dependencies. An alternative is to use log-linear interpolation of skip models (i.e. skip bigrams and skip trigrams). The method as such has been published earlier. In this paper we investigate the impact of different smoothing techniques on the skip models as a measure of their overall performance. One option is to use automatically trained distance clusters (both hard and soft) to increase robustness and to combat sparseness in the skip model. We also investigate alternative smoothing techniques on word level. For skip bigrams when skipping a small number of words Kneser-Ney smoothing (KN) is advantageous. For a larger number of words being skipped Dirichlet smoothing performs better. In order to exploit the advantages of both KN and Dirichlet smoothing we propose a new unified smoothing technique. Experiments are performed on four Babel languages: Cantonese, Pashto, Tagalog and Turkish. RNNs and log-linearly interpolated skip models are on par if the skip models are trained with standard smoothing techniques. Using the improved smoothing of the skip models along with distance clusters, we can clearly outperform RNNs by about 8-11 in perplexity across all four languages. Spatial and temporal contextual information plays a key role for analyzing user behaviors, and is helpful for predicting where he or she will go next. With the growing ability of collecting information, more and more temporal and spatial contextual information is collected in systems, and the location prediction problem becomes crucial and feasible. Some works have been proposed to address this problem, but they all have their limitations. Factorizing Personalized Markov Chain (FPMC) is constructed based on a strong independence assumption among different factors, which limits its performance. Tensor Factorization (TF) faces the cold start problem in predicting future actions. Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN) model shows promising performance comparing with PFMC and TF, but all these methods have problem in modeling continuous time interval and geographical distance. In this paper, we extend RNN and propose a novel method called Spatial Temporal Recurrent Neural Networks (ST-RNN). ST-RNN can model local temporal and spatial contexts in each layer with time-specific transition matrices for different time intervals and distance-specific transition matrices for different geographical distances. Experimental results show that the proposed ST-RNN model yields significant improvements over the competitive compared methods on two typical datasets, i.e., Global Terrorism Database (GTD) and Gowalla dataset.