Learning Granger causality for general point processes is a very challenging task. In this paper, we propose an effective method, learning Granger causality, for a special but significant type of point processes --- Hawkes process. We reveal the relationship between Hawkes process's impact function and its Granger causality graph. Specifically, our model represents impact functions using a series of basis functions and recovers the Granger causality graph via group sparsity of the impact functions' coefficients. We propose an effective learning algorithm combining a maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) with a sparse-group-lasso (SGL) regularizer. Additionally, the flexibility of our model allows to incorporate the clustering structure event types into learning framework. We analyze our learning algorithm and propose an adaptive procedure to select basis functions. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world data show that our method can learn the Granger causality graph and the triggering patterns of the Hawkes processes simultaneously.
Many efforts have been made to learn the Granger causality of point processes @cite_23 . For general random processes, a kernel independence test is developed in @cite_0 . Focusing on 1-D point process with simple piecewise constant conditional intensity, a model for capturing temporal dependencies between event types is proposed in @cite_33 . @cite_7 @cite_36 , the inherent grouping structure is considered when learning the Granger casuality on networks from discrete transition process. @cite_1 proposed a continuous-time diffusion network inference method based on parametric cascade generative process. In more general cases, a class of graphical models of marked point processes is proposed in @cite_34 to capture the local independence over various marks. Specializing the work for Hawkes processes, @cite_40 firstly connects Granger causality with impact functions. However, although applying lasso or its variants to capture the intra-structure of nodes @cite_20 is a common strategy, less work has been done on learning causality graph of Hawkes process with sparse-group-lasso as we do, which leads them to be sensitive to noisy and insufficient data.
@cite_33 @cite_7 @cite_36 @cite_1 @cite_0 @cite_40 @cite_23 @cite_34 @cite_20
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Hawkes (1971) introduced a powerful multivariate point process model of mutually exciting processes to explain causal structure in data. In this paper it is shown that the Granger causality structure of such processes is fully encoded in the corresponding link functions of the model. A new nonparametric estimator of the link functions based on a time-discretized version of the point process is introduced by using an infinite order autoregression. Consistency of the new estimator is derived. The estimator is applied to simulated data and to neural spike train data from the spinal dorsal horn of a rat. We propose a graphical model for representing networks of stochastic processes, the minimal generative model graph. It is based on reduced factorizations of the joint distribution over time. We show that under appropriate conditions, it is unique and consistent with another type of graphical model, the directed information graph, which is based on a generalization of Granger causality. We demonstrate how directed information quantifies Granger causality in a particular sequential prediction setting. We also develop efficient methods to estimate the topological structure from data that obviate estimating the joint statistics. One algorithm assumes upper bounds on the degrees and uses the minimal dimension statistics necessary. In the event that the upper bounds are not valid, the resulting graph is nonetheless an optimal approximation in terms of Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence. Another algorithm uses near-minimal dimension statistics when no bounds are known, but the distribution satisfies a certain criterion. Analogous to how structure learning algorithms for undirected graphical models use mutual information estimates, these algorithms use directed information estimates. We characterize the sample-complexity of two plug-in directed information estimators and obtain confidence intervals. For the setting when point estimates are unreliable, we propose an algorithm that uses confidence intervals to identify the best approximation that is robust to estimation error. Last, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms through the analysis of both synthetic data and real data from the Twitter network. In the latter case, we identify which news sources influence users in the network by merely analyzing tweet times. The problem of consistently estimating the sparsity pattern of a vector β* ∈ RP based on observations contaminated by noise arises in various contexts, including signal denoising, sparse approximation, compressed sensing, and model selection. We analyze the behavior of l1-constrained quadratic programming (QP), also referred to as the Lasso, for recovering the sparsity pattern. Our main result is to establish precise conditions on the problern dimension p, the number k of nonzero elements in β*, and the number of observations n that are necessary and sufficient for sparsity pattern recovery using the Lasso. We first analyze the case of observations made using deterministic design matrices and sub-Gaussian additive noise, and provide sufficient conditions for support recovery and l∞-error bounds, as well as results showing the necessity of incoherence and bounds on the minimum value. We then turn to the case of random designs, in which each row of the design is drawn from a N(0, Σ) ensemble. For a broad class of Gaussian ensembles satisfying mutual incoherence conditions, we compute explicit values of thresholds 0 0, if n > 2(θu + δ)k log(p - k), then the Lasso succeeds in recovering the sparsity pattern with probability converging to one for large problems, whereas for n < 2(θl - δ)k log(p - k), then the probability of successful recovery converges to zero. For the special case of the uniform Gaussian ensemble (Σ = I p×p), we show that θl = θu = 1, so that the precise threshold n = 2k log (p - k) is exactly determined. We consider the problem of discovering gene regulatory networks from time-series microarray data. Recently, graphical Granger modeling has gained considerable attention as a promising direction for addressing this problem. These methods apply graphical modeling methods on time-series data and invoke the notion of ‘Granger causality’ to make assertions on causality through inference on time-lagged effects. Existing algorithms, however, have neglected an important aspect of the problem—the group structure among the lagged temporal variables naturally imposed by the time series they belong to. Specifically, existing methods in computational biology share this shortcoming, as well as additional computational limitations, prohibiting their effective applications to the large datasets including a large number of genes and many data points. In the present article, we propose a novel methodology which we term ‘grouped graphical Granger modeling method’, which overcomes the limitations mentioned above by applying a regression method suited for high-dimensional and large data, and by leveraging the group structure among the lagged temporal variables according to the time series they belong to. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology on both simulated and actual gene expression data, specifically the human cancer cell (HeLa S3) cycle data. The simulation results show that the proposed methodology generally exhibits higher accuracy in recovering the underlying causal structure. Those on the gene expression data demonstrate that it leads to improved accuracy with respect to prediction of known links, and also uncovers additional causal relationships uncaptured by earlier works. Contact: aclozano@us.ibm.com We present a novel approach to the causal temporal analysis of event data from video content. Our key observation is that the sequence of visual words produced by a space-time dictionary representation of a video sequence can be interpreted as a multivariate point-process. By using a spectral version of the pairwise test for Granger causality, we can identify patterns of interactions between words and group them into independent causal sets. We demonstrate qualitatively that this produces semantically-meaningful groupings, and we demonstrate quantitatively that these groupings lead to improved performance in retrieving and classifying social games from unstructured videos. k−2 � 1 − xb−k � � dx� . Call this process a � -coalescent. Discrete measure-valued processes derived from the � -coalescent model a system of masses undergoing coalescent collisions. Kingman's coalescent, which has numerous applications in population genetics, is the δ0-coalescent for δ0 a unit mass at 0. The coalescent recently derived by Bolthausen and Sznit- man from Ruelle's probability cascades, in the context of the Sherrington- Kirkpatrick spin glass model in mathematical physics, is the U-coalescent for U uniform on � 0� 1� .F or� = U, and whenever an infinite number of masses are present, each collision in a � -coalescent involves an infinite number of masses almost surely, and the proportion of masses involved exists as a limit almost surely and is distributed proportionally to � . The two-parameter Poisson-Dirichlet family of random discrete distributions derived from a stable subordinator, and corresponding exchangeable ran- dom partitions ofgoverned by a generalization of the Ewens sampling formula, are applied to describe transition mechanisms for processes of coalescence and fragmentation, including the U-coalescent and its time reversal. 1. Introduction. Markovian coalescent models for the evolution of a sys- tem of masses by a random process of binary collisions were introduced by Marcus (29) and Lushnikov (28). See (3) for a recent survey of the scientific lit- erature of these models and their relation to Smoluchowski's mean-field theory of coagulation phenomena. Evans and Pitman (15) gave a general framework for the rigorous construction of partition-valued and discrete measure-valued coalescent Markov processes allowing infinitely many massses and treated the binary coalescent model where each pair of masses x and y is subject to a coa- lescent collision at rate κ� xyfor a suitable rate kernel κ. This paper studies a family of partition-valued Markov processes, with state space the compact set of all partitions of � �= � 1� 2 ���� � , such that the restriction of the partition to each finite subset ofis a Markov chain with transition rates of a simple form determined by the moments of a finite measureon the unit interval. The case � = δ 0 , a unit mass at 0, is Kingman's coalescent in which every We introduce an extended family of continuous-domain stochastic models for sparse, piecewise-smooth signals. These are specified as solutions of stochastic differential equations, or, equivalently, in terms of a suitable innovation model; the latter is analogous conceptually to the classical interpretation of a Gaussian stationary process as filtered white noise. The two specific features of our approach are 1) signal generation is driven by a random stream of Dirac impulses (Poisson noise) instead of Gaussian white noise, and 2) the class of admissible whitening operators is considerably larger than what is allowed in the conventional theory of stationary processes. We provide a complete characterization of these finite-rate-of-innovation signals within Gelfand's framework of generalized stochastic processes. We then focus on the class of scale-invariant whitening operators which correspond to unstable systems. We show that these can be solved by introducing proper boundary conditions, which leads to the specification of random, spline-type signals that are piecewise-smooth. These processes are the Poisson counterpart of fractional Brownian motion; they are nonstationary and have the same 1 ω-type spectral signature. We prove that the generalized Poisson processes have a sparse representation in a wavelet-like basis subject to some mild matching condition. We also present a limit example of sparse process that yields a MAP signal estimator that is equivalent to the popular TV-denoising algorithm. We develop a canonical framework for the study of the problem of registration of multiple point processes subjected to warping, known as the problem of separation of amplitude and phase variation. The amplitude variation of a real random function Y(x) : x is an element of [0, 1] corresponds to its random oscillations in the y-axis, typically encapsulated by its (co) variation around a mean level. In contrast, its phase variation refers to fluctuations in the x-axis, often caused by random time changes. We formalise similar notions for a point process, and nonparametrically separate them based on realisations of i.i.d. copies Pi(i) of the phase-varying point process. A key element in our approach is to demonstrate that when the classical phase variation assumptions of Functional Data Analysis (FDA) are applied to the point process case, they become equivalent to conditions interpretable through the prism of the theory of optimal transportation of measure. We demonstrate that these induce a natural Wasserstein geometry tailored to the warping problem, including a formal notion of bias expressing over-registration. Within this framework, we construct nonparametric estimators that tend to avoid over-registration in finite samples. We show that they consistently estimate the warp maps, consistently estimate the structural mean, and consistently register the warped point processes, even in a sparse sampling regime. We also establish convergence rates, and derivev root n-consistency and a central limit theorem in the Cox process case under dense sampling, showing rate optimality of our structural mean estimator in that case. In crowded scenes, the extracted low-level features, such as optical flow or spatio-temporal interest point, are inevitably noisy and uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a fully unsupervised non-negative sparse coding based approach for abnormality event detection in crowded scenes, which is specifically tailored to cope with feature noisy and uncertainty. The abnormality of query sample is decided by the sparse reconstruction cost from an atomically learned event dictionary, which forms a sparse coding bases. In our algorithm, we formulate the task of dictionary learning as a non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) problem with a sparsity constraint. We take the robust Earth Mover's Distance (EMD), instead of traditional Euclidean distance, as distance metric reconstruction cost function. To reduce the computation complexity of EMD, an approximate EMD, namely wavelet EMD, is introduced and well combined into our approach, without losing performance. In addition, the combination of wavelet EMD with our approach guarantees the convexity of optimization in dictionary learning. To handle both local abnormality detection (LAD) and global abnormality detection, we adopt two different types of spatio-temporal basis. Experiments conducted on four public available datasets demonstrate the promising performance of our work against the state-of-the-art methods.