While it has long been believed in psychology that weather somehow influences human's mood, the debates have been going on for decades about how they are correlated. In this paper, we try to study this long-lasting topic by harnessing a new source of data compared from traditional psychological researches: Twitter. We analyze 2 years' twitter data collected by twitter API which amounts to @math of all postings and try to reveal the correlations between multiple dimensional structure of human mood with meteorological effects. Some of our findings confirm existing hypotheses, while others contradict them. We are hopeful that our approach, along with the new data source, can shed on the long-going debates on weather-mood correlation.
As Twitter mood indicators have been demonstrated as both robust and sensitive @cite_22 @cite_47 , researchers are exploring ways to predict a variety of real-world outcomes based on indicators, such as economics @cite_16 @cite_6 @cite_1 @cite_51 , stock market @cite_26 @cite_33 or political events @cite_60 @cite_50 @cite_59 @cite_11 or disease @cite_57 @cite_17 . Lindsay @cite_34 built a sentiment classifier with Facebook data set and demonstrates the significant correlation between microblog sentiments and polls during 2008 presidential election. O' @cite_50 tried to predict political events based on user-mood analysis on twitter.
@cite_26 @cite_22 @cite_33 @cite_60 @cite_1 @cite_17 @cite_6 @cite_34 @cite_57 @cite_50 @cite_59 @cite_47 @cite_16 @cite_51 @cite_11
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We perform a sentiment analysis of all tweets published on the microblogging platform Twitter in the second half of 2008. We use a psychometric instrument to extract six mood states (tension, depression, anger, vigor, fatigue, confusion) from the aggregated Twitter content and compute a six-dimensional mood vector for each day in the timeline. We compare our results to a record of popular events gathered from media and sources. We find that events in the social, political, cultural and economic sphere do have a significant, immediate and highly specific effect on the various dimensions of public mood. We speculate that large scale analyses of mood can provide a solid platform to model collective emotive trends in terms of their predictive value with regards to existing social as well as economic indicators. Microblogging is a form of online communication by which users broadcast brief text updates, also known as tweets, to the public or a selected circle of contacts. A variegated mosaic of microblogging uses has emerged since the launch of Twitter in 2006: daily chatter, conversation, information sharing, and news commentary, among others. Regardless of their content and intended use, tweets often convey pertinent information about their author's mood status. As such, tweets can be regarded as temporally-authentic microscopic instantiations of public mood state. In this article, we perform a sentiment analysis of all public tweets broadcasted by Twitter users between August 1 and December 20, 2008. For every day in the timeline, we extract six dimensions of mood (tension, depression, anger, vigor, fatigue, confusion) using an extended version of the Profile of Mood States (POMS), a well-established psychometric instrument. We compare our results to fluctuations recorded by stock market and crude oil price indices and major events in media and popular culture, such as the U.S. Presidential Election of November 4, 2008 and Thanksgiving Day. We find that events in the social, political, cultural and economic sphere do have a significant, immediate and highly specific effect on the various dimensions of public mood. We speculate that large scale analyses of mood can provide a solid platform to model collective emotive trends in terms of their predictive value with regards to existing social as well as economic indicators. Behavioral economics tells us that emotions can profoundly affect individual behavior and decision-making. Does this also apply to societies at large, i.e. can societies experience mood states that affect their collective decision making? By extension is the public mood correlated or even predictive of economic indicators? Here we investigate whether measurements of collective mood states derived from large-scale Twitter feeds are correlated to the value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) over time. We analyze the text content of daily Twitter feeds by two mood tracking tools, namely OpinionFinder that measures positive vs. negative mood and Google-Profile of Mood States (GPOMS) that measures mood in terms of 6 dimensions (Calm, Alert, Sure, Vital, Kind, and Happy). We cross-validate the resulting mood time series by comparing their ability to detect the public's response to the presidential election and Thanksgiving day in 2008. A Granger causality analysis and a Self-Organizing Fuzzy Neural Network are then used to investigate the hypothesis that public mood states, as measured by the OpinionFinder and GPOMS mood time series, are predictive of changes in DJIA closing values. Our results indicate that the accuracy of DJIA predictions can be significantly improved by the inclusion of specific public mood dimensions but not others. We find an accuracy of 87.6 in predicting the daily up and down changes in the closing values of the DJIA and a reduction of the Mean Average Percentage Error by more than 6 . Index Terms—stock market prediction — twitter — mood analysis. The increasing adoption of social media provides unprecedented opportunities to gain insight into human nature at vastly broader scales. Regarding the study of population-wide sentiment, prior research commonly focuses on text-based analyses and ignores a treasure trove of sentiment-laden content: images. In this paper, we make methodological and computational contributions by introducing the Smile Index as a formalized measure of societ al happiness. Detecting smiles in 9 million geo-located tweets over 16 months, we validate our Smile Index against both text-based techniques and self-reported happiness. We further make observational contributions by applying our metric to explore temporal trends in sentiment, relate public mood to societ al events, and predict economic indicators. Reflecting upon the innate, language-independent aspects of facial expressions, we recommend future improvements and applications to enable robust, global-level analyses. We conclude with implications for researchers studying and facilitating the expression of collective emotion through socio-technical systems. Abstract In this paper, we propose a robust methodology to assess the value of microblogging data to forecast stock market variables: returns, volatility and trading volume of diverse indices and portfolios. The methodology uses sentiment and attention indicators extracted from microblogs (a large Twitter dataset is adopted) and survey indices (AAII and II, USMC and Sentix), diverse forms to daily aggregate these indicators, usage of a Kalman Filter to merge microblog and survey sources, a realistic rolling windows evaluation, several Machine Learning methods and the Diebold-Mariano test to validate if the sentiment and attention based predictions are valuable when compared with an autoregressive baseline. We found that Twitter sentiment and posting volume were relevant for the forecasting of returns of S&P 500 index, portfolios of lower market capitalization and some industries. Additionally, KF sentiment was informative for the forecasting of returns. Moreover, Twitter and KF sentiment indicators were useful for the prediction of some survey sentiment indicators. These results confirm the usefulness of microblogging data for financial expert systems, allowing to predict stock market behavior and providing a valuable alternative for existing survey measures with advantages (e.g., fast and cheap creation, daily frequency). Efforts to assess people’s sentiments on Twitter have suggested that Twitter could be a valuable resource for studying political sentiment and that it reflects the offline political landscape. Many opinion mining systems and tools provide users with people’s attitudes toward products, people, or topics and their attributes aspects. However, although it may appear simple, using sentiment analysis to predict election results is difficult, since it is empirically challenging to train a successful model to conduct sentiment analysis on tweet streams for a dynamic event such as an election. This article highlights some of the challenges related to sentiment analysis encountered during monitoring of the presidential election using Kno.e.sis’s Twitris system. Twitter has brought much attention recently as a hot research topic in the domain of sentiment analysis. Training sentiment classifiers from tweets data often faces the data sparsity problem partly due to the large variety of short and irregular forms introduced to tweets because of the 140-character limit. In this work we propose using two different sets of features to alleviate the data sparseness problem. One is the semantic feature set where we extract semantically hidden concepts from tweets and then incorporate them into classifier training through interpolation. Another is the sentiment-topic feature set where we extract latent topics and the associated topic sentiment from tweets, then augment the original feature space with these sentiment-topics. Experimental results on the Stanford Twitter Sentiment Dataset show that both feature sets outperform the baseline model using unigrams only. Moreover, using semantic features rivals the previously reported best result. Using sentimenttopic features achieves 86.3 sentiment classification accuracy, which outperforms existing approaches. Sentiment analysis on Twitter data has attracted much attention recently. In this paper, we focus on target-dependent Twitter sentiment classification; namely, given a query, we classify the sentiments of the tweets as positive, negative or neutral according to whether they contain positive, negative or neutral sentiments about that query. Here the query serves as the target of the sentiments. The state-of-the-art approaches for solving this problem always adopt the target-independent strategy, which may assign irrelevant sentiments to the given target. Moreover, the state-of-the-art approaches only take the tweet to be classified into consideration when classifying the sentiment; they ignore its context (i.e., related tweets). However, because tweets are usually short and more ambiguous, sometimes it is not enough to consider only the current tweet for sentiment classification. In this paper, we propose to improve target-dependent Twitter sentiment classification by 1) incorporating target-dependent features; and 2) taking related tweets into consideration. According to the experimental results, our approach greatly improves the performance of target-dependent sentiment classification. Numerous papers have reported great success at inferring the political orientation of Twitter users. This paper has some unfortunate news to deliver: while past work has been sound and often methodologically novel, we have discovered that reported accuracies have been systemically overoptimistic due to the way in which validation datasets have been collected, reporting accuracy levels nearly 30 higher than can be expected in populations of general Twitter users. Using careful and novel data collection and annotation techniques, we collected three different sets of Twitter users, each characterizing a different degree of political engagement on Twitter - from politicians (highly politically vocal) to "normal" users (those who rarely discuss politics). Applying standard techniques for inferring political orientation, we show that methods which previously reported greater than 90 inference accuracy, actually achieve barely 65 accuracy on normal users. We also show that classifiers cannot be used to classify users outside the narrow range of political orientation on which they were trained. While a sobering finding, our results quantify and call attention to overlooked problems in the latent attribute inference literature that, no doubt, extend beyond political orientation inference: the way in which datasets are assembled and the transferability of classifiers. Predicting stock market movements is a well-known problem of interest. Now-a-days social media is perfectly representing the public sentiment and opinion about current events. Especially, Twitter has attracted a lot of attention from researchers for studying the public sentiments. Stock market prediction on the basis of public sentiments expressed on Twitter has been an intriguing field of research. Previous studies have concluded that the aggregate public mood collected from Twitter may well be correlated with Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJIA). The thesis of this work is to observe how well the changes in stock prices of a company, the rises and falls, are correlated with the public opinions being expressed in tweets about that company. Understanding author's opinion from a piece of text is the objective of sentiment analysis. The present paper have employed two different textual representations, Word2vec and N-gram, for analyzing the public sentiments in tweets. In this paper, we have applied sentiment analysis and supervised machine learning principles to the tweets extracted from Twitter and analyze the correlation between stock market movements of a company and sentiments in tweets. In an elaborate way, positive news and tweets in social media about a company would definitely encourage people to invest in the stocks of that company and as a result the stock price of that company would increase. At the end of the paper, it is shown that a strong correlation exists between the rise and falls in stock prices with the public sentiments in tweets. We connect measures of public opinion measured from polls with sentiment measured from text. We analyze several surveys on consumer confidence and political opinion over the 2008 to 2009 period, and find they correlate to sentiment word frequencies in contemporaneous Twitter messages. While our results vary across datasets, in several cases the correlations are as high as 80 , and capture important large-scale trends. The results highlight the potential of text streams as a substitute and supplement for traditional polling. We propose a supervised model for expanding an opinion lexicon for Twitter.We combine automatically annotated tweets with existing hand-made opinion lexicons.We use POS tags and associations between words and sentiment as word-level features.Expanded words are mapped to a positive, negative, and neutral distribution.We outperform the performance obtained by using PMI semantic orientation alone. Opinion lexicons, which are lists of terms labeled by sentiment, are widely used resources to support automatic sentiment analysis of textual passages. However, existing resources of this type exhibit some limitations when applied to social media messages such as tweets (posts in Twitter), because they are unable to capture the diversity of informal expressions commonly found in this type of media.In this article, we present a method that combines information from automatically annotated tweets and existing hand-made opinion lexicons to expand an opinion lexicon in a supervised fashion. The expanded lexicon contains part-of-speech (POS) disambiguated entries with a probability distribution for positive, negative, and neutral polarity classes, similarly to SentiWordNet.To obtain this distribution using machine learning, we propose word-level attributes based on (a) the morphological information conveyed by POS tags and (b) associations between words and the sentiment expressed in the tweets that contain them. We consider tweets with both hard and soft sentiment labels. The sentiment associations are modeled in two different ways: using point-wise-mutual-information semantic orientation (PMI-SO), and using stochastic gradient descent semantic orientation (SGD-SO), which learns a linear relationship between words and sentiment. The training dataset is labeled by a seed lexicon formed by combining multiple hand-annotated lexicons.Our experimental results show that our method outperforms the three-dimensional word-level polarity classification performance obtained by using PMI-SO alone. This is significant because PMI-SO is a state-of-the-art measure for establishing world-level sentiment. Additionally, we show that lexicons created with our method achieve significant improvements over SentiWordNet for classifying tweets into polarity classes, and also outperform SentiStrength in the majority of the experiments. We developed computational models to predict the emergence of depression and Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder in Twitter users. Twitter data and details of depression history were collected from 204 individuals (105 depressed, 99 healthy). We extracted predictive features measuring affect, linguistic style, and context from participant tweets (N = 279,951) and built models using these features with supervised learning algorithms. Resulting models successfully discriminated between depressed and healthy content, and compared favorably to general practitioners’ average success rates in diagnosing depression, albeit in a separate population. Results held even when the analysis was restricted to content posted before first depression diagnosis. State-space temporal analysis suggests that onset of depression may be detectable from Twitter data several months prior to diagnosis. Predictive results were replicated with a separate sample of individuals diagnosed with PTSD (Nusers = 174, Ntweets = 243,775). A state-space time series model revealed indicators of PTSD almost immediately post-trauma, often many months prior to clinical diagnosis. These methods suggest a data-driven, predictive approach for early screening and detection of mental illness. Twitter, as a social media is a very popular way of expressing opinions and interacting with other people in the online world. When taken in aggregation tweets can provide a reflection of public sentiment towards events. In this paper, we provide a positive or negative sentiment on Twitter posts using a well-known machine learning method for text categorization. In addition, we use manually labeled (positive negative) tweets to build a trained method to accomplish a task. The task is looking for a correlation between twitter sentiment and events that have occurred. The trained model is based on the Bayesian Logistic Regression (BLR) classification method. We used external lexicons to detect subjective or objective tweets, added Unigram and Bigram features and used TF-IDF (Term Frequency-Inverse Document Frequency) to filter out the features. Using the FIFA World Cup 2014 as our case study, we used Twitter Streaming API and some of the official world cup hashtags to mine, filter and process tweets, in order to analyze the reflection of public sentiment towards unexpected events. The same approach, can be used as a basis for predicting future events. The language used in tweets from 1,300 different US counties was found to be predictive of the subjective well-being of people living in those counties as measured by representative surveys. Topics, sets of co-occurring words derived from the tweets using LDA, improved accuracy in predicting life satisfaction over and above standard demographic and socio-economic controls (age, gender, ethnicity, income, and education). The LDA topics provide a greater behavioural and conceptual resolution into life satisfaction than the broad socio-economic and demographic variables. For example, tied in with the psychological literature, words relating to outdoor activities, spiritual meaning, exercise, and good jobs correlate with increased life satisfaction, while words signifying disengagement like ’bored’ and ’tired’ show a negative association.