Information cascades are ubiquitous in both physical society and online social media, taking on large variations in structures, dynamics and semantics. Although the dynamics and semantics of information cascades have been studied, the structural patterns and their correlations with dynamics and semantics are largely unknown. Here we explore a large-scale dataset including @math million information cascades with explicit records of spreading traces, spreading behaviors, information content as well as user profiles. We find that the structural complexity of information cascades is far beyond the previous conjectures. We first propose a ten-dimensional metric to quantify the structural characteristics of information cascades, reflecting cascade size, silhouette, direction and activity aspects. We find that bimodal law governs majority of the metrics, information flows in cascades have four directions, and the self-loop number and average activity of cascades follows power law. We then analyze the high-order structural patterns of information cascades. Finally, we evaluate to what extent the structural features of information cascades can explain its dynamic patterns and semantics, and finally uncover some notable implications of structural patterns in information cascades. Our discoveries also provide a foundation for the microscopic mechanisms for information spreading, potentially leading to implications for cascade prediction and outlier detection.
We presented related work in three dimensions: cascade structures, dynamics and topics. The cascade structures have been studied in different scenarios, including blogs @cite_1 @cite_24 @cite_27 , communication network @cite_6 , Facebook @cite_12 , Twitter @cite_32 , LinkedIn @cite_31 . , or to infer structures @cite_4 . Deep-tree structures are found and modeled in Ref. @cite_19 . Goel @cite_22 studied the virality of cascades by using Wiener index. However, we find information flows in cascades have four directions, indicating complex structures than tree patterns. Furthermore, ignoring the high-order correlations between structure metrics in previous studies prevent our understandings of cascade structures.
@cite_4 @cite_22 @cite_1 @cite_32 @cite_6 @cite_24 @cite_19 @cite_27 @cite_31 @cite_12
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Cascades are a popular construct to observe and study information propagation (or diffusion) in social media such as Twitter. and are defined using notions of influence, activity, or discourse commonality (e.g., hashtags). While these notions of cascades lead to different perspectives, primarily cascades are modeled as trees. We argue in this paper an alternative viewpoint of cascades as forests (of trees) which yields a richer vocabulary of features to understand information propagation. We develop a framework to extract forests and analyze their growth by studying their evolution at the tree-level and at the node-level. Moreover, we demonstrate how the structural features of forests, properties of the underlying network, and temporal features of the cascades provide significant predictive value in forecasting the future trajectory of both size and shape of forests. We observe that the forecasting performance increases with observations, that the temporal features are highly indicative of cascade size, and that the features extracted from the underlying connected graph best forecast the shape of the cascade. Information cascades on social networks, such as retweet cascades on Twitter, have been often viewed as an epidemiological process, with the associated notion of virality to capture popular cascades that spread across the network. The notion of structural virality or average path length has been posited as a measure of global spread. In this paper, we argue that this simple epidemiological view, though analytically compelling, is not the entire story. We first show empirically that the classical SIR diffusion process on the Twitter graph, even with the best possible distribution of infectiousness parameter, cannot explain the nature of observed retweet cascades on Twitter. More specifically, rather than spreading further from the source as the SIR model would predict, many cascades that have several retweets from direct followers, die out quickly beyond that. We show that our empirical observations can be reconciled if we take interests of users and tweets into account. In particular, we consider a model where users have multi-dimensional interests, and connect to other users based on similarity in interests. Tweets are correspondingly labeled with interests, and propagate only in the subgraph of interested users via the SIR process. In this model, interests can be either narrow or broad, with the narrowest interest corresponding to a star graph on the interested users, with the root being the source of the tweet, and the broadest interest spanning the whole graph. We show that if tweets are generated using such a mix of interests, coupled with a varying infectiousness parameter, then we can qualitatively explain our observation that cascades die out much more quickly than is predicted by the SIR model. In the same breath, this model also explains how cascades can have large size, but low "structural virality" or average path length. Cascades appear in many applications, including biological graphs and social media analysis. In a cascade, a dynamic attribute propagates through a graph, following its edges. We present the results of a formal user study that tests the effectiveness of different types of cascade visualisations on node-link diagrams for the task of judging cascade spread. Overall, we found that a small multiples presentation was significantly faster than animation with no significant difference in terms of error rate. Participants generally preferred animation over small multiples and a hierarchical layout to a force-directed layout. Considering each presentation method separately, when comparing force-directed layouts to hierarchical layouts, hierarchical layouts were found to be significantly faster for both presentation methods and significantly more accurate for animation. Representing the history of the cascade had no significant effect. Thus, for our task, this experiment supports the use of a small multiples interf... Information spreads across social and technological networks, but often the network structures are hidden from us and we only observe the traces left by the diffusion processes, called cascades. Can we recover the hidden network structures from these observed cascades? What kind of cascades and how many cascades do we need? Are there some network structures which are more difficult than others to recover? Can we design efficient inference algorithms with provable guarantees? Despite the increasing availability of cascade data and methods for inferring networks from these data, a thorough theoretical understanding of the above questions remains largely unexplored in the literature. In this paper, we investigate the network structure inference problem for a general family of continuous-time diffusion models using an @math -regularized likelihood maximization framework. We show that, as long as the cascade sampling process satisfies a natural incoherence condition, our framework can recover the correct network structure with high probability if we observe @math cascades, where @math is the maximum number of parents of a node and @math is the total number of nodes. Moreover, we develop a simple and efficient soft-thresholding inference algorithm, which we use to illustrate the consequences of our theoretical results, and show that our framework outperforms other alternatives in practice. Cascades are ubiquitous in various network environments. How to predict these cascades is highly nontrivial in several vital applications, such as viral marketing, epidemic prevention and traffic management. Most previous works mainly focus on predicting the final cascade sizes. As cascades are typical dynamic processes, it is always interesting and important to predict the cascade size at any time, or predict the time when a cascade will reach a certain size (e.g. an threshold for outbreak). In this paper, we unify all these tasks into a fundamental problem: cascading process prediction. That is, given the early stage of a cascade, how to predict its cumulative cascade size of any later time? For such a challenging problem, how to understand the micro mechanism that drives and generates the macro phenomena (i.e. cascading process) is essential. Here we introduce behavioral dynamics as the micro mechanism to describe the dynamic process of a node's neighbors getting infected by a cascade after this node getting infected (i.e. one-hop subcascades). Through data-driven analysis, we find out the common principles and patterns lying in behavioral dynamics and propose a novel Networked Weibull Regression model for behavioral dynamics modeling. After that we propose a novel method for predicting cascading processes by effectively aggregating behavioral dynamics, and present a scalable solution to approximate the cascading process with a theoretical guarantee. We extensively evaluate the proposed method on a large scale social network dataset. The results demonstrate that the proposed method can significantly outperform other state-of-the-art baselines in multiple tasks including cascade size prediction, outbreak time prediction and cascading process prediction. On many social networking web sites such as Facebook and Twitter, resharing or reposting functionality allows users to share others' content with their own friends or followers. As content is reshared from user to user, large cascades of reshares can form. While a growing body of research has focused on analyzing and characterizing such cascades, a recent, parallel line of work has argued that the future trajectory of a cascade may be inherently unpredictable. In this work, we develop a framework for addressing cascade prediction problems. On a large sample of photo reshare cascades on Facebook, we find strong performance in predicting whether a cascade will continue to grow in the future. We find that the relative growth of a cascade becomes more predictable as we observe more of its reshares, that temporal and structural features are key predictors of cascade size, and that initially, breadth, rather than depth in a cascade is a better indicator of larger cascades. This prediction performance is robust in the sense that multiple distinct classes of features all achieve similar performance. We also discover that temporal features are predictive of a cascade's eventual shape. Observing independent cascades of the same content, we find that while these cascades differ greatly in size, we are still able to predict which ends up the largest. The origin of large but rare cascades that are triggered by small initial shocks is a phenomenon that manifests itself as diversely as cultural fads, collective action, the diffusion of norms and innovations, and cascading failures in infrastructure and organizational networks. This paper presents a possible explanation of this phenomenon in terms of a sparse, random network of interacting agents whose decisions are determined by the actions of their neighbors according to a simple threshold rule. Two regimes are identified in which the network is susceptible to very large cascades—herein called global cascades—that occur very rarely. When cascade propagation is limited by the connectivity of the network, a power law distribution of cascade sizes is observed, analogous to the cluster size distribution in standard percolation theory and avalanches in self-organized criticality. But when the network is highly connected, cascade propagation is limited instead by the local stability of the nodes themselves, and the size distribution of cascades is bimodal, implying a more extreme kind of instability that is correspondingly harder to anticipate. In the first regime, where the distribution of network neighbors is highly skewed, it is found that the most connected nodes are far more likely than average nodes to trigger cascades, but not in the second regime. Finally, it is shown that heterogeneity plays an ambiguous role in determining a system's stability: increasingly heterogeneous thresholds make the system more vulnerable to global cascades; but an increasingly heterogeneous degree distribution makes it less vulnerable. To comprehend the multipartite organization of large-scale biological and social systems, we introduce an information theoretic approach that reveals community structure in weighted and directed networks. We use the probability flow of random walks on a network as a proxy for information flows in the real system and decompose the network into modules by compressing a description of the probability flow. The result is a map that both simplifies and highlights the regularities in the structure and their relationships. We illustrate the method by making a map of scientific communication as captured in the citation patterns of >6,000 journals. We discover a multicentric organization with fields that vary dramatically in size and degree of integration into the network of science. Along the backbone of the network—including physics, chemistry, molecular biology, and medicine—information flows bidirectionally, but the map reveals a directional pattern of citation from the applied fields to the basic sciences. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for efficient training of deep neural networks in a bottom-up fashion using a layered structure. Our algorithm, which we refer to as deep cascade learning, is motivated by the cascade correlation approach of Fahlman and Lebiere, who introduced it in the context of perceptrons. We demonstrate our algorithm on networks of convolutional layers, though its applicability is more general. Such training of deep networks in a cascade directly circumvents the well-known vanishing gradient problem by ensuring that the output is always adjacent to the layer being trained. We present empirical evaluations comparing our deep cascade training with standard end–end training using back propagation of two convolutional neural network architectures on benchmark image classification tasks (CIFAR-10 and CIFAR-100). We then investigate the features learned by the approach and find that better, domain-specific, representations are learned in early layers when compared to what is learned in end–end training. This is partially attributable to the vanishing gradient problem that inhibits early layer filters to change significantly from their initial settings. While both networks perform similarly overall, recognition accuracy increases progressively with each added layer, with discriminative features learned in every stage of the network, whereas in end–end training, no such systematic feature representation was observed. We also show that such cascade training has significant computational and memory advantages over end–end training, and can be used as a pretraining algorithm to obtain a better performance. The problem of learning classifier cascades is considered. A new cascade boosting algorithm, fast cascade boosting (FCBoost), is proposed. FCBoost is shown to have a number of interesting properties, namely that it 1) minimizes a Lagrangian risk that jointly accounts for classification accuracy and speed, 2) generalizes adaboost, 3) can be made cost-sensitive to support the design of high detection rate cascades, and 4) is compatible with many predictor structures suitable for sequential decision making. It is shown that a rich family of such structures can be derived recursively from cascade predictors of two stages, denoted cascade generators. Generators are then proposed for two new cascade families, last-stage and multiplicative cascades, that generalize the two most popular cascade architectures in the literature. The concept of neutral predictors is finally introduced, enabling FCBoost to automatically determine the cascade configuration, i.e., number of stages and number of weak learners per stage, for the learned cascades. Experiments on face and pedestrian detection show that the resulting cascades outperform current state-of-the-art methods in both detection accuracy and speed.