Sales forecasts are crucial for the E-commerce business. State-of-the-art techniques typically apply only univariate methods to make prediction for each series independently. However, due to the short nature of sales times series in E-commerce, univariate methods don't apply well. In this article, we propose a global model which outperforms state-of-the-art models on real dataset. It is achieved by using Tree Boosting Methods that exploit non-linearity and cross-series information. We also proposed a preprocessing framework to overcome the inherent difficulties in the E-commerce data. In particular, we use different schemes to limit the impact of the volatility of the data.
Recently, neural networks @cite_9 have been proposed to use cross-series information for the specific purpose of E-commerce. They adapt a Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network (LSTM) architecture to treat all the series at the same time. They also separate effects of longitudinal and temporal features and seem to have a good performance. This suggests that non-linearity is important for modelling such data.
@cite_9
2024632416
Neural network based approaches have recently produced record-setting performances in natural language understanding tasks such as word labeling. In the word labeling task, a tagger is used to assign a label to each word in an input sequence. Specifically, simple recurrent neural networks (RNNs) and convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have shown to significantly outperform the previous state-of-the-art - conditional random fields (CRFs). This paper investigates using long short-term memory (LSTM) neural networks, which contain input, output and forgetting gates and are more advanced than simple RNN, for the word labeling task. To explicitly model output-label dependence, we propose a regression model on top of the LSTM un-normalized scores. We also propose to apply deep LSTM to the task. We investigated the relative importance of each gate in the LSTM by setting other gates to a constant and only learning particular gates. Experiments on the ATIS dataset validated the effectiveness of the proposed models.