Survival analysis in the presence of multiple possible adverse events, i.e., competing risks, is a pervasive problem in many industries (healthcare, finance, etc.). Since only one event is typically observed, the incidence of an event of interest is often obscured by other related competing events. This nonidentifiability, or inability to estimate true cause-specific survival curves from empirical data, further complicates competing risk survival analysis. We introduce Siamese Survival Prognosis Network (SSPN), a novel deep learning architecture for estimating personalized risk scores in the presence of competing risks. SSPN circumvents the nonidentifiability problem by avoiding the estimation of cause-specific survival curves and instead determines pairwise concordant time-dependent risks, where longer event times are assigned lower risks. Furthermore, SSPN is able to directly optimize an approximation to the C-discrimination index, rather than relying on well-known metrics which are unable to capture the unique requirements of survival analysis with competing risks.
Previous work on classical survival analysis has demonstrated the advantages of deep learning over statistical methods @cite_26 @cite_1 @cite_8 . Cox proportional hazards model @cite_15 is the baseline statistical model for survival analysis, but is limited since the dependent risk function is the product of a linear covariate function and a time dependent function, which is insufficient for modeling complex non-linear medical data. @cite_1 replaced the linear covariate function with a feed-forward neural network as input for the Cox PH model and demonstrated improved performance. The current literature addresses competing risks based on statistical methods (the Fine Gray model @cite_21 ), classical machine learning (Random Survival Forest @cite_7 @cite_22 ), multi-task learning @cite_4 ) etc., with limited success. These existing competing risk models are challenged by computational scalability issues for datasets with many patients and multiple covariates. To address this challenge, we propose a deep learning architecture for survival analysis with competing risks to optimize the time-dependent discrimination index. This is not trivial and will be elaborated in the next section.
@cite_26 @cite_4 @cite_22 @cite_7 @cite_8 @cite_21 @cite_1 @cite_15
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Medical practitioners use survival models to explore and understand the relationships between patients’ covariates (e.g. clinical and genetic features) and the effectiveness of various treatment options. Standard survival models like the linear Cox proportional hazards model require extensive feature engineering or prior medical knowledge to model treatment interaction at an individual level. While nonlinear survival methods, such as neural networks and survival forests, can inherently model these high-level interaction terms, they have yet to be shown as effective treatment recommender systems. We introduce DeepSurv, a Cox proportional hazards deep neural network and state-of-the-art survival method for modeling interactions between a patient’s covariates and treatment effectiveness in order to provide personalized treatment recommendations. We perform a number of experiments training DeepSurv on simulated and real survival data. We demonstrate that DeepSurv performs as well as or better than other state-of-the-art survival models and validate that DeepSurv successfully models increasingly complex relationships between a patient’s covariates and their risk of failure. We then show how DeepSurv models the relationship between a patient’s features and effectiveness of different treatment options to show how DeepSurv can be used to provide individual treatment recommendations. Finally, we train DeepSurv on real clinical studies to demonstrate how it’s personalized treatment recommendations would increase the survival time of a set of patients. The predictive and modeling capabilities of DeepSurv will enable medical researchers to use deep neural networks as a tool in their exploration, understanding, and prediction of the effects of a patient’s characteristics on their risk of failure. Previous research has shown that neural networks can model survival data in situations in which some patients' death times are unknown, e.g. right-censored. However, neural networks have rarely been shown to outperform their linear counterparts such as the Cox proportional hazards model. In this paper, we run simulated experiments and use real survival data to build upon the risk-regression architecture proposed by Faraggi and Simon. We demonstrate that our model, DeepSurv, not only works as well as other survival models but actually outperforms in predictive ability on survival data with linear and nonlinear risk functions. We then show that the neural network can also serve as a recommender system by including a categorical variable representing a treatment group. This can be used to provide personalized treatment recommendations based on an individual's calculated risk. We provide an open source Python module that implements these methods in order to advance research on deep learning and survival analysis. An accurate model of patient-specific kidney graft survival distributions can help to improve shared-decision making in the treatment and care of patients. In this paper, we propose a deep learning method that directly models the survival function instead of estimating the hazard function to predict survival times for graft patients based on the principle of multi-task learning. By learning to jointly predict the time of the event, and its rank in the cox partial log likelihood framework, our deep learning approach outperforms, in terms of survival time prediction quality and concordance index, other common methods for survival analysis, including the Cox Proportional Hazards model and a network trained on the cox partial log-likelihood. Abstract Visual tracking algorithms based on structured output support vector machine (SOSVM) have demonstrated excellent performance. However, sampling methods and optimization strategies of SOSVM undesirably increase the computational overloads, which hinder real-time application of these algorithms. Moreover, due to the lack of high-dimensional features and dense training samples, SOSVM-based algorithms are unstable to deal with various challenging scenarios, such as occlusions and scale variations. Recently, visual tracking algorithms based on discriminative correlation filters (DCF), especially the combination of DCF and features from deep convolutional neural networks (CNN), have been successfully applied to visual tracking, and attains surprisingly good performance on recent benchmarks. The success is mainly attributed to two aspects: the circular correlation properties of DCF and the powerful representation capabilities of CNN features. Nevertheless, compared with SOSVM, DCF-based algorithms are restricted to simple ridge regression which has a weaker discriminative ability. In this paper, a novel circular and structural operator tracker (CSOT) is proposed for high performance visual tracking, it not only possesses the powerful discriminative capability of SOSVM but also efficiently inherits the superior computational efficiency of DCF. Based on the proposed circular and structural operators, a set of primal confidence score maps can be obtained by circular correlating feature maps with their corresponding structural correlation filters. Furthermore, an implicit interpolation is applied to convert the multi-resolution feature maps to the continuous domain and make all primal confidence score maps have the same spatial resolution. Then, we exploit an efficient ensemble post-processor based on relative entropy, which can coalesce primal confidence score maps and create an optimal confidence score map for more accurate localization. The target is localized on the peak of the optimal confidence score map. Besides, we introduce a collaborative optimization strategy to update circular and structural operators by iteratively training structural correlation filters, which significantly reduces computational complexity and improves robustness. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach achieves state-of-the-art performance in mean AUC scores of 71.5 and 69.4 on the OTB2013 and OTB2015 benchmarks respectively, and obtains a third-best expected average overlap (EAO) score of 29.8 on the VOT2017 benchmark. We present an adversarial domain adaptation based deep learning approach for automatic tumor segmentation from T2-weighted MRI. Our approach is composed of two steps: (i) a tumor-aware unsupervised cross-domain adaptation (CT to MRI), followed by (ii) semi-supervised tumor segmentation using Unet trained with synthesized and limited number of original MRIs. We introduced a novel target specific loss, called tumor-aware loss, for unsupervised cross-domain adaptation that helps to preserve tumors on synthesized MRIs produced from CT images. In comparison, state-of-the art adversarial networks trained without our tumor-aware loss produced MRIs with ill-preserved or missing tumors. All networks were trained using labeled CT images from 377 patients with non-small cell lung cancer obtained from the Cancer Imaging Archive and unlabeled T2w MRIs from a completely unrelated cohort of 6 patients with pre-treatment and 36 on-treatment scans. Next, we combined 6 labeled pre-treatment MRI scans with the synthesized MRIs to boost tumor segmentation accuracy through semi-supervised learning. Semi-supervised training of cycle-GAN produced a segmentation accuracy of 0.66 computed using Dice Score Coefficient (DSC). Our method trained with only synthesized MRIs produced an accuracy of 0.74 while the same method trained in semi-supervised setting produced the best accuracy of 0.80 on test. Our results show that tumor-aware adversarial domain adaptation helps to achieve reasonably accurate cancer segmentation from limited MRI data by leveraging large CT datasets. We propose a novel method called deep convolutional decision jungle (CDJ) and its learning algorithm for image classification. The CDJ maintains the structure of standard convolutional neural networks (CNNs), i.e. multiple layers of multiple response maps fully connected. Each response map-or node-in both the convolutional and fully-connected layers selectively respond to class labels s.t. each data sample travels via a specific soft route of those activated nodes. The proposed method CDJ automatically learns features, whereas decision forests and jungles require pre-defined feature sets. Compared to CNNs, the method embeds the benefits of using data-dependent discriminative functions, which better handles multi-modal heterogeneous data; further,the method offers more diverse sparse network responses, which in turn can be used for cost-effective learning classification. The network is learnt by combining conventional softmax and proposed entropy losses in each layer. The entropy loss,as used in decision tree growing, measures the purity of data activation according to the class label distribution. The back-propagation rule for the proposed loss function is derived from stochastic gradient descent (SGD) optimization of CNNs. We show that our proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art methods on three public image classification benchmarks and one face verification dataset. We also demonstrate the use of auxiliary data labels, when available, which helps our method to learn more discriminative routing and representations and leads to improved classification. Abstract Several competing human behavior models have been proposed to model boundedly rational adversaries in repeated Stackelberg Security Games (SSG). However, these existing models fail to address three main issues which are detrimental to defender performance. First, while they attempt to learn adversary behavior models from adversaries' past actions (“attacks on targets”), they fail to take into account adversaries' future adaptation based on successes or failures of these past actions. Second, existing algorithms fail to learn a reliable model of the adversary unless there exists sufficient data collected by exposing enough of the attack surface – a situation that often arises in initial rounds of the repeated SSG. Third, current leading models have failed to include probability weighting functions, even though it is well known that human beings' weighting of probability is typically nonlinear. To address these limitations of existing models, this article provides three main contributions. Our first contribution is a new human behavior model, SHARP, which mitigates these three limitations as follows: (i) SHARP reasons based on success or failure of the adversary's past actions on exposed portions of the attack surface to model adversary adaptivity; (ii) SHARP reasons about similarity between exposed and unexposed areas of the attack surface, and also incorporates a discounting parameter to mitigate adversary's lack of exposure to enough of the attack surface; and (iii) SHARP integrates a non-linear probability weighting function to capture the adversary's true weighting of probability. Our second contribution is a first “repeated measures study” – at least in the context of SSGs – of competing human behavior models. This study, where each experiment lasted a period of multiple weeks with individual sets of human subjects on the Amazon Mechanical Turk platform, illustrates the strengths and weaknesses of different models and shows the advantages of SHARP. Our third major contribution is to demonstrate SHARP's superiority by conducting real-world human subjects experiments at the Bukit Barisan Seletan National Park in Indonesia against wildlife security experts. Time-to-event outcomes based data can be modelled using survival regression methods which can predict these outcomes in different censored data applications in diverse fields such as engineering, economics and healthcare. Predictive models are built by inferring from the censored variable in time-to-event data, which differentiates them from other regression methods. Censoring is represented as a binary indicator variable and machine learning methods have been tuned to account for the censored attribute. Active learning from censored data using survival regression methods can make the model query a domain expert for the time-to-event label of the sampled instances. This offers higher advantages in the healthcare domain where a domain expert can interactively refine the model with his feedback. With this motivation, we address this problem by providing an active learning based survival model which uses a novel model discriminative gradient based sampling scheme. We evaluate this framework on electronic health records (EHR), publicly available survival and synthetic censored datasets of varying diversity. Experimental evaluation against state of the art survival regression methods indicates the higher discriminative ability of the proposed approach. We also present the sampling results for the proposed approach in an active learning setting which indicate better learning rates in comparison to other sampling strategies.