The task of keyhole (unobtrusive) plan recognition is central to adaptive game AI. "Tech trees" or "build trees" are the core of real-time strategy (RTS) game strategic (long term) planning. This paper presents a generic and simple Bayesian model for RTS build tree prediction from noisy observations, which parameters are learned from replays (game logs). This unsupervised machine learning approach involves minimal work for the game developers as it leverage players' data (com- mon in RTS). We applied it to StarCraft1 and showed that it yields high quality and robust predictions, that can feed an adaptive AI.
This work was encouraged by the reading of weber Data Mining Approach to Strategy Prediction and the fact that they provided their dataset. They tried and evaluated several machine learning algorithms on replays that were labeled with strategies (supervised learning). There are related works in the domains of opponent modeling @cite_6 @cite_18 @cite_11 . The main methods used to these ends are case-based reasoning (CBR) and planning or plan recognition @cite_0 @cite_10 @cite_3 @cite_5 @cite_15 . There are precedent works of Bayesian plan recognition @cite_9 , even in games with @cite_13 using dynamic Bayesian networks to recognize a user's plan in a multi-player dungeon adventure. Also, Chung05 describe a Monte-Carlo plan selection algorithm applied to Open RTS.
@cite_13 @cite_18 @cite_9 @cite_6 @cite_3 @cite_0 @cite_5 @cite_15 @cite_10 @cite_11
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This paper presents a Bayesian model to predict the opening (first strategy) of opponents in real-time strategy (RTS) games. Our model is general enough to be applied to any RTS game with the canonical gameplay of gathering resources to extend a technology tree and produce military units and we applied it to StarCraft1. This model can also predict the possible technology trees of the opponent, but we will focus on openings here. The parameters of this model are learned from replays (game logs), labeled with openings. We present a semi-supervised method of labeling replays with the expectation-maximization algorithm and key features, then we use these labels to learn our parameters and benchmark our method with cross-validation. Uses of such a model range from a commentary assistant (for competitive games) to a core component of a dynamic RTS bot AI, as it will be part of our StarCraft AI competition entry bot. We present a data mining approach to opponent modeling in strategy games. Expert gameplay is learned by applying machine learning techniques to large collections of game logs. This approach enables domain independent algorithms to acquire domain knowledge and perform opponent modeling. Machine learning algorithms are applied to the task of detecting an opponent's strategy before it is executed and predicting when an opponent will perform strategic actions. Our approach involves encoding game logs as a feature vector representation, where each feature describes when a unit or building type is first produced. We compare our representation to a state lattice representation in perfect and imperfect information environments and the results show that our representation has higher predictive capabilities and is more tolerant of noise. We also discuss how to incorporate our data mining approach into a full game playing agent. While several researchers have applied case-based reasoning techniques to games, only Ponsen and Spronck (2004) have addressed the challenging problem of learning to win real-time games. Focusing on Wargus, they report good results for a genetic algorithm that searches in plan space, and for a weighting algorithm (dynamic scripting) that biases subplan retrieval. However, both approaches assume a static opponent, and were not designed to transfer their learned knowledge to opponents with substantially different strategies. We introduce a plan retrieval algorithm that, by using three key sources of domain knowledge, removes the assumption of a static opponent. Our experiments show that its implementation in the Case-based Tactician (CaT) significantly outperforms the best among a set of genetically evolved plans when tested against random Wargus opponents. CaT communicates with Wargus through TIELT, a testbed for integrating and evaluating decision systems with simulators. This is the first application of TIELT. We describe this application, our lessons learned, and our motivations for future work. Graphical models (e.g., Bayesian and constraint networks, influence diagrams, and Markov decision processes) have become a central paradigm for knowledge representation and reasoning in both artificial intelligence and computer science in general. These models are used to perform many reasoning tasks, such as scheduling, planning and learning, diagnosis and prediction, design, hardware and software verification, and bioinformatics. These problems can be stated as the formal tasks of constraint satisfaction and satisfiability, combinatorial optimization, and probabilistic inference. It is well known that the tasks are computationally hard, but research during the past three decades has yielded a variety of principles and techniques that significantly advanced the state of the art. In this book we provide comprehensive coverage of the primary exact algorithms for reasoning with such models. The main feature exploited by the algorithms is the model's graph. We present inference-based, message-passing schemes (e.g., variable-elimination) and search-based, conditioning schemes (e.g., cycle-cutset conditioning and AND OR search). Each class possesses distinguished characteristics and in particular has different time vs. space behavior. We emphasize the dependence of both schemes on few graph parameters such as the treewidth, cycle-cutset, and (the pseudo-tree) height. We believe the principles outlined here would serve well in moving forward to approximation and anytime-based schemes. The target audience of this book is researchers and students in the artificial intelligence and machine learning area, and beyond. Table of Contents: Preface Introduction What are Graphical Models Inference: Bucket Elimination for Deterministic Networks Inference: Bucket Elimination for Probabilistic Networks Tree-Clustering Schemes AND OR Search Spaces and Algorithms for Graphical Models Combining Search and Inference: Trading Space for Time Conclusion Bibliography Author's Biography We consider the problem of learning to act in partially observable, continuous-state-and-action worlds where we have abstract prior knowledge about the structure of the optimal policy in the form of a distribution over policies. Using ideas from planning-as-inference reductions and Bayesian unsupervised learning, we cast Markov Chain Monte Carlo as a stochastic, hill-climbing policy search algorithm. Importantly, this algorithm's search bias is directly tied to the prior and its MCMC proposal kernels, which means we can draw on the full Bayesian toolbox to express the search bias, including nonparametric priors and structured, recursive processes like grammars over action sequences. Furthermore, we can reason about uncertainty in the search bias itself by constructing a hierarchical prior and reasoning about latent variables that determine the abstract structure of the policy. This yields an adaptive search algorithm--our algorithm learns to learn a structured policy efficiently. We show how inference over the latent variables in these policy priors enables intra- and intertask transfer of abstract knowledge. We demonstrate the flexibility of this approach by learning meta search biases, by constructing a nonparametric finite state controller to model memory, by discovering motor primitives using a simple grammar over primitive actions, and by combining all three. In the field of infrastructures’ surveillance and protection, it is important to make decisions based on activities occurring in the environment and its local context and conditions. In this paper we use an active rule based event processing architecture in order to make sense of situations from the combination of different signals received by the rule engine. However obtaining some high level information automatically is not without risks, especially in sensitive environments, and detection mistakes can happen for various reasons: the signal’s source can be defective, whether it is human—miss-interpretation of the signal—or computed—material malfunction; the aggregation rules can be wrong syntaxically, for example when a rule will never be triggered or a situation never detected; the interpretation given to the combination of signals does not correspond to the reality on the field—because the knowledge of the rule designer is subjective or because the environment evolves over-time—the rules are therefore incorrect semantically. In this paper, a new approach is proposed to avoid the third kind of error sources. We present a hybrid machine learning technique adapted to the complexity of the rules’ representation, in order to create a system more conform to reality. The proposed approach uses a combination of an Association Rule Mining algorithm and Inductive Logic Programming for rule induction. Empirical studies on simulated datasets demonstrate how our method can contribute to sensible systems such as the security of a public or semi-public place. These lecture notes highlight the mathematical and computational structure relating to the formulation of, and development of algorithms for, the Bayesian approach to inverse problems in differential equations. This approach is fundamental in the quantification of uncertainty within applications in volving the blending of mathematical models with data. The finite dimensional situation is described first, along with some motivational examples. Then the development of probability measures on separable Banach space is undertaken, using a random series over an infinite set of functions to construct draws; these probability measures are used as priors in the Bayesian approach to inverse problems. Regularity of draws from the priors is studied in the natural Sobolev or Besov spaces implied by the choice of functions in the random series construction, and the Kolmogorov continuity theorem is used to extend regularity considerations to the space of Holder continuous functions. Bayes’ theorem is de rived in this prior setting, and here interpreted as finding conditions under which the posterior is absolutely continuous with respect to the prior, and determining a formula for the Radon-Nikodym derivative in terms of the likelihood of the data. Having established the form of the posterior, we then describe various properties common to it in the infinite dimensional setting. These properties include well-posedness, approximation theory, and the existence of maximum a posteriori estimators. We then describe measure-preserving dynamics, again on the infinite dimensional space, including Markov chain-Monte C arlo and sequential Monte Carlo methods, and measure-preserving reversible stochastic differential equations. By formulating the theory and algorithms on the underlying infinite dimensional space, we obtain a framework suitable for rigorous analysis of the accuracy of reconstructions, of computational complexity, as well as naturally constructing algorithms which perform well under mesh refinement, since they are inherently well-defined in infinite dimensions. Abstract We argue that the problem of plan recognition, inferring an agent's plan from observations, is largely a problem of inference under conditions of uncertainty. We present an approach to the plan recognition problem that is based on Bayesian probability theory. In attempting to solve a plan recognition problem we first retrieve candidate explanations. These explanations (sometimes only the most promising ones) are assembled into a plan recognition Bayesian network , which is a representation of a probability distribution over the set of possible explanations. We perform Bayesian updating to choose the most likely interpretation for the set of observed actions. This approach has been implemented in the Wimp3 system for natural language story understanding. Automatic sleep staging has been often treated as a simple classification problem that aims at determining the label of individual target polysomnography epochs one at a time. In this paper, we tackle the task as a sequence-to-sequence classification problem that receives a sequence of multiple epochs as input and classifies all of their labels at once. For this purpose, we propose a hierarchical recurrent neural network named SeqSleepNet (source code is available at http: github.com pquochuy SeqSleepNet ). At the epoch processing level, the network consists of a filterbank layer tailored to learn frequency-domain filters for preprocessing and an attention-based recurrent layer designed for short-term sequential modeling. At the sequence processing level, a recurrent layer placed on top of the learned epoch-wise features for long-term modeling of sequential epochs. The classification is then carried out on the output vectors at every time step of the top recurrent layer to produce the sequence of output labels. Despite being hierarchical, we present a strategy to train the network in an end-to-end fashion. We show that the proposed network outperforms the state-of-the-art approaches, achieving an overall accuracy, macro F1-score, and Cohen’s kappa of 87.1 , 83.3 , and 0.815 on a publicly available dataset with 200 subjects. We aim to produce predictive models that are not only accurate, but are also interpretable to human experts. Our models are decision lists, which consist of a series of if...then... statements (for example, if high blood pressure, then stroke) that discretize a high-dimensional, multivariate feature space into a series of simple, readily interpretable decision statements. We introduce a generative model called Bayesian Rule Lists that yields a posterior distribution over possible decision lists. It employs a novel prior structure to encourage sparsity. Our experiments show that Bayesian Rule Lists has predictive accuracy on par with the current top algorithms for prediction in machine learning. Our method is motivated by recent developments in personalized medicine, and can be used to produce highly accurate and interpretable medical scoring systems. We demonstrate this by producing an alternative to the CHADS2 score, actively used in clinical practice for estimating the risk of stroke in patients that have atrial fibrillation. Our model is as interpretable as CHADS2, but more accurate.