In this paper, we study the accuracy of values aggregated over classes predicted by a classification algorithm. The problem is that the resulting aggregates (e.g., sums of a variable) are known to be biased. The bias can be large even for highly accurate classification algorithms, in particular when dealing with class-imbalanced data. To correct this bias, the algorithm's classification error rates have to be estimated. In this estimation, two issues arise when applying existing bias correction methods. First, inaccuracies in estimating classification error rates have to be taken into account. Second, impermissible estimates, such as a negative estimate for a positive value, have to be dismissed. We show that both issues are relevant in applications where the true labels are known only for a small set of data points. We propose a novel bias correction method using Bayesian inference. The novelty of our method is that it imposes constraints on the model parameters. We show that our method solves the problem of biased classification-based aggregates as well as the two issues above, in the general setting of multi-class classification. In the empirical evaluation, using a binary classifier on a real-world dataset of company tax returns, we show that our method outperforms existing methods in terms of mean squared error.
Assume that the classes @math are not known, but instead predicted to be @math . The predicted class matrix based on the predictions @math is denoted by @math . Similarly, @math denotes the predicted counts vector. Assume that @math is known for all @math . The goal is to estimate the sum of @math over each of the classes @math . In other words, the main problem statement is how to find, using the predicted @math and the known @math , an accurate estimator of the In the sentiment analysis application from before, the set @math is the set of messages and @math is binary (a positive or negative message). Each @math equals 1 and hence @math is a 2-vector with @math the number of positive messages and @math the number of negative messages. In the land cover mapping application obtained from @cite_2 , each @math is a pixel and @math may attain @math different values. The value @math is the real land area corresponding to pixel @math . Hence, the 15-vector @math contains the total land area of each of the 15 land cover classes.
@cite_2
2077306951
We consider the problem of estimating an unknown signal @math from noisy linear observations @math . In many practical instances, @math has a certain structure that can be captured by a structure inducing convex function @math . For example, @math norm can be used to encourage a sparse solution. To estimate @math with the aid of @math , we consider the well-known LASSO method and provide sharp characterization of its performance. We assume the entries of the measurement matrix @math and the noise vector @math have zero-mean normal distributions with variances @math and @math respectively. For the LASSO estimator @math , we attempt to calculate the Normalized Square Error (NSE) defined as @math as a function of the noise level @math , the number of observations @math and the structure of the signal. We show that, the structure of the signal @math and choice of the function @math enter the error formulae through the summary parameters @math and @math , which are defined as the Gaussian squared-distances to the subdifferential cone and to the @math -scaled subdifferential, respectively. The first LASSO estimator assumes a-priori knowledge of @math and is given by @math . We prove that its worst case NSE is achieved when @math and concentrates around @math . Secondly, we consider @math , for some @math . This time the NSE formula depends on the choice of @math and is given by @math . We then establish a mapping between this and the third estimator @math . Finally, for a number of important structured signal classes, we translate our abstract formulae to closed-form upper bounds on the NSE.