Variable importance is central to scientific studies, including the social sciences and causal inference, healthcare, and in other domains. However, current notions of variable importance are often tied to a specific predictive model. This is problematic: what if there were multiple well-performing predictive models, and a specific variable is important to some of them and not to others? In that case, we may not be able to tell from a single well-performing model whether a variable is always important in predicting the outcome. Rather than depending on variable importance for a single predictive model, we would like to explore variable importance for all approximately-equally-accurate predictive models. This work introduces the concept of a variable importance cloud, which maps every variable to its importance for every good predictive model. We show properties of the variable importance cloud and draw connections other areas of statistics. We introduce variable importance diagrams as a projection of the variable importance cloud into two dimensions for visualization purposes. Experiments with criminal justice and marketing data illustrate how variables can change dramatically in importance for approximately-equally-accurate predictive models.
In our paper, we analyze variable importance in the context of a set of good models, namely the Rashomon set. This idea is closely related to the works that investigate variable importance without using posthoc analysis. @cite_11 estimate the bounds of variable importance in the sense that no good predictive model has variable importance that exceed the bounds. Unlike the posthoc methods mentioned above, they do not study variable importance for a pre-selected model. Instead, the analysis is performed on the set of all good models within a model class. Our work differs from theirs because we look at the joint set of variable importance rather than only the extremes. Our approach can reveal the importance of a variable in the context of other variables, which is not what their framework is designed to do.
@cite_11
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Three Bayesian related approaches, namely, variational Bayesian (VB), minimum message length (MML) and Bayesian Ying-Yang (BYY) harmony learning, have been applied to automatically determining an appropriate number of components during learning Gaussian mixture model (GMM). This paper aims to provide a comparative investigation on these approaches with not only a Jeffreys prior but also a conjugate Dirichlet-Normal-Wishart (DNW) prior on GMM. In addition to adopting the existing algorithms either directly or with some modifications, the algorithm for VB with Jeffreys prior and the algorithm for BYY with DNW prior are developed in this paper to fill the missing gap. The performances of automatic model selection are evaluated through extensive experiments, with several empirical findings: 1) Considering priors merely on the mixing weights, each of three approaches makes biased mistakes, while considering priors on all the parameters of GMM makes each approach reduce its bias and also improve its performance. 2) As Jeffreys prior is replaced by the DNW prior, all the three approaches improve their performances. Moreover, Jeffreys prior makes MML slightly better than VB, while the DNW prior makes VB better than MML. 3) As the hyperparameters of DNW prior are further optimized by each of its own learning principle, BYY improves its performances while VB and MML deteriorate their performances when there are too many free hyper-parameters. Actually, VB and MML lack a good guide for optimizing the hyper-parameters of DNW prior. 4) BYY considerably outperforms both VB and MML for any type of priors and whether hyper-parameters are optimized. Being different from VB and MML that rely on appropriate priors to perform model selection, BYY does not highly depend on the type of priors. It has model selection ability even without priors and performs already very well with Jeffreys prior, and incrementally improves as Jeffreys prior is replaced by the DNW prior. Finally, all algorithms are applied on the Berkeley segmentation database of real world images. Again, BYY considerably outperforms both VB and MML, especially in detecting the objects of interest from a confusing background.