User behaviour targeting is essential in online advertising. Compared with sponsored search keyword targeting and contextual advertising page content targeting, user behaviour targeting builds users' interest profiles via tracking their online behaviour and then delivers the relevant ads according to each user's interest, which leads to higher targeting accuracy and thus more improved advertising performance. The current user profiling methods include building keywords and topic tags or mapping users onto a hierarchical taxonomy. However, to our knowledge, there is no previous work that explicitly investigates the user online visits similarity and incorporates such similarity into their ad response prediction. In this work, we propose a general framework which learns the user profiles based on their online browsing behaviour, and transfers the learned knowledge onto prediction of their ad response. Technically, we propose a transfer learning model based on the probabilistic latent factor graphic models, where the users' ad response profiles are generated from their online browsing profiles. The large-scale experiments based on real-world data demonstrate significant improvement of our solution over some strong baselines.
aims at predicting the probability that a specific user will respond (e.g., click) to an ad in a given context @cite_18 @cite_0 . Such context can be either a search keyword @cite_12 , webpage content @cite_28 , or other kinds of real-time information related to the underlying user @cite_3 . From the modelling perspective, many user response prediction solutions are based on linear models, such as logistic regression @cite_10 @cite_5 and Bayesian probit regression @cite_12 . Despite the advantage of high learning efficiency, these linear models suffer from the lack of feature interaction and combination @cite_17 . Thus non-linear models such as tree models @cite_17 and latent vector models @cite_14 @cite_22 are proposed to catch the data non-linearity and interactions between features. Recently the authors in @cite_2 proposed to first learn combination features from gradient boosting decision trees (GBDT) and, based on the tree leaves as features, learn a factorisation machine (FM) @cite_9 to build feature interactions to improve ad click prediction performance.
@cite_18 @cite_14 @cite_22 @cite_28 @cite_9 @cite_3 @cite_0 @cite_2 @cite_5 @cite_10 @cite_12 @cite_17
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Predicting user responses, such as click-through rate and conversion rate, are critical in many web applications including web search, personalised recommendation, and online advertising. Different from continuous raw features that we usually found in the image and audio domains, the input features in web space are always of multi-field and are mostly discrete and categorical while their dependencies are little known. Major user response prediction models have to either limit themselves to linear models or require manually building up high-order combination features. The former loses the ability of exploring feature interactions, while the latter results in a heavy computation in the large feature space. To tackle the issue, we propose two novel models using deep neural networks (DNNs) to automatically learn effective patterns from categorical feature interactions and make predictions of users’ ad clicks. To get our DNNs efficiently work, we propose to leverage three feature transformation methods, i.e., factorisation machines (FMs), restricted Boltzmann machines (RBMs) and denoising auto-encoders (DAEs). This paper presents the structure of our models and their efficient training algorithms. The large-scale experiments with real-world data demonstrate that our methods work better than major state-of-the-art models. Predicting user responses, such as click-through rate and conversion rate, are critical in many web applications including web search, personalised recommendation, and online advertising. Different from continuous raw features that we usually found in the image and audio domains, the input features in web space are always of multi-field and are mostly discrete and categorical while their dependencies are little known. Major user response prediction models have to either limit themselves to linear models or require manually building up high-order combination features. The former loses the ability of exploring feature interactions, while the latter results in a heavy computation in the large feature space. To tackle the issue, we propose two novel models using deep neural networks (DNNs) to automatically learn effective patterns from categorical feature interactions and make predictions of users' ad clicks. To get our DNNs efficiently work, we propose to leverage three feature transformation methods, i.e., factorisation machines (FMs), restricted Boltzmann machines (RBMs) and denoising auto-encoders (DAEs). This paper presents the structure of our models and their efficient training algorithms. The large-scale experiments with real-world data demonstrate that our methods work better than major state-of-the-art models. Recommender problems with large and dynamic item pools are ubiquitous in web applications like content optimization, online advertising and web search. Despite the availability of rich item meta-data, excess heterogeneity at the item level often requires inclusion of item-specific "factors" (or weights) in the model. However, since estimating item factors is computationally intensive, it poses a challenge for time-sensitive recommender problems where it is important to rapidly learn factors for new items (e.g., news articles, event updates, tweets) in an online fashion. In this paper, we propose a novel method called FOBFM (Fast Online Bilinear Factor Model) to learn item-specific factors quickly through online regression. The online regression for each item can be performed independently and hence the procedure is fast, scalable and easily parallelizable. However, the convergence of these independent regressions can be slow due to high dimensionality. The central idea of our approach is to use a large amount of historical data to initialize the online models based on offline features and learn linear projections that can effectively reduce the dimensionality. We estimate the rank of our linear projections by taking recourse to online model selection based on optimizing predictive likelihood. Through extensive experiments, we show that our method significantly and uniformly outperforms other competitive methods and obtains relative lifts that are in the range of 10-15 in terms of predictive log-likelihood, 200-300 for a rank correlation metric on a proprietary My Yahoo! dataset; it obtains 9 reduction in root mean squared error over the previously best method on a benchmark MovieLens dataset using a time-based train test data split. This article considers approaches which rerank the output of an existing probabilistic parser. The base parser produces a set of candidate parses for each input sentence, with associated probabilities that define an initial ranking of these parses. A second model then attempts to improve upon this initial ranking, using additional features of the tree as evidence. The strength of our approach is that it allows a tree to be represented as an arbitrary set of features, without concerns about how these features interact or overlap and without the need to define a derivation or a generative model which takes these features into account. We introduce a new method for the reranking task, based on the boosting approach to ranking problems described in (1998). We apply the boosting method to parsing the Wall Street Journal treebank. The method combined the log-likelihood under a baseline model (that of Collins [1999]) with evidence from an additional 500,000 features over parse trees that were not included in the original model. The new model achieved 89.75 F-measure, a 13 relative decrease in F measure error over the baseline model's score of 88.2 . The article also introduces a new algorithm for the boosting approach which takes advantage of the sparsity of the feature space in the parsing data. Experiments show significant efficiency gains for the new algorithm over the obvious implementation of the boosting approach. We argue that the method is an appealing alternative—in terms of both simplicity and efficiency—to work on feature selection methods within log-linear (maximum-entropy) models. Although the experiments in this article are on natural language parsing (NLP), the approach should be applicable to many other NLP problems which are naturally framed as ranking tasks, for example, speech recognition, machine translation, or natural language generation. Many predictive tasks of web applications need to model categorical variables, such as user IDs and demographics like genders and occupations. To apply standard machine learning techniques, these categorical predictors are always converted to a set of binary features via one-hot encoding, making the resultant feature vector highly sparse. To learn from such sparse data effectively, it is crucial to account for the interactions between features. Factorization Machines (FMs) are a popular solution for efficiently using the second-order feature interactions. However, FM models feature interactions in a linear way, which can be insufficient for capturing the non-linear and complex inherent structure of real-world data. While deep neural networks have recently been applied to learn non-linear feature interactions in industry, such as the Wide&Deep by Google and DeepCross by Microsoft, the deep structure meanwhile makes them difficult to train. In this paper, we propose a novel model Neural Factorization Machine (NFM) for prediction under sparse settings. NFM seamlessly combines the linearity of FM in modelling second-order feature interactions and the non-linearity of neural network in modelling higher-order feature interactions. Conceptually, NFM is more expressive than FM since FM can be seen as a special case of NFM without hidden layers. Empirical results on two regression tasks show that with one hidden layer only, NFM significantly outperforms FM with a 7.3 relative improvement. Compared to the recent deep learning methods Wide&Deep and DeepCross, our NFM uses a shallower structure but offers better performance, being much easier to train and tune in practice. We present a probabilistic model for generating personalised recommendations of items to users of a web service. The Matchbox system makes use of content information in the form of user and item meta data in combination with collaborative filtering information from previous user behavior in order to predict the value of an item for a user. Users and items are represented by feature vectors which are mapped into a low-dimensional trait space' in which similarity is measured in terms of inner products. The model can be trained from different types of feedback in order to learn user-item preferences. Here we present three alternatives: direct observation of an absolute rating each user gives to some items, observation of a binary preference (like don't like) and observation of a set of ordinal ratings on a user-specific scale. Efficient inference is achieved by approximate message passing involving a combination of Expectation Propagation (EP) and Variational Message Passing. We also include a dynamics model which allows an item's popularity, a user's taste or a user's personal rating scale to drift over time. By using Assumed-Density Filtering (ADF) for training, the model requires only a single pass through the training data. This is an on-line learning algorithm capable of incrementally taking account of new data so the system can immediately reflect the latest user preferences. We evaluate the performance of the algorithm on the MovieLens and Netflix data sets consisting of approximately 1,000,000 and 100,000,000 ratings respectively. This demonstrates that training the model using the on-line ADF approach yields state-of-the-art performance with the option of improving performance further if computational resources are available by performing multiple EP passes over the training data. Graphical models (e.g., Bayesian and constraint networks, influence diagrams, and Markov decision processes) have become a central paradigm for knowledge representation and reasoning in both artificial intelligence and computer science in general. These models are used to perform many reasoning tasks, such as scheduling, planning and learning, diagnosis and prediction, design, hardware and software verification, and bioinformatics. These problems can be stated as the formal tasks of constraint satisfaction and satisfiability, combinatorial optimization, and probabilistic inference. It is well known that the tasks are computationally hard, but research during the past three decades has yielded a variety of principles and techniques that significantly advanced the state of the art. In this book we provide comprehensive coverage of the primary exact algorithms for reasoning with such models. The main feature exploited by the algorithms is the model's graph. We present inference-based, message-passing schemes (e.g., variable-elimination) and search-based, conditioning schemes (e.g., cycle-cutset conditioning and AND OR search). Each class possesses distinguished characteristics and in particular has different time vs. space behavior. We emphasize the dependence of both schemes on few graph parameters such as the treewidth, cycle-cutset, and (the pseudo-tree) height. We believe the principles outlined here would serve well in moving forward to approximation and anytime-based schemes. The target audience of this book is researchers and students in the artificial intelligence and machine learning area, and beyond. Table of Contents: Preface Introduction What are Graphical Models Inference: Bucket Elimination for Deterministic Networks Inference: Bucket Elimination for Probabilistic Networks Tree-Clustering Schemes AND OR Search Spaces and Algorithms for Graphical Models Combining Search and Inference: Trading Space for Time Conclusion Bibliography Author's Biography In this paper, we study the gradient boosted decision trees (GBDT) when the output space is high dimensional and sparse. For example, in multilabel classification, the output space is a L-dimensional 0 1 vector, where L is number of labels that can grow to millions and beyond in many modern applications. We show that vanilla GBDT can easily run out of memory or encounter near-forever running time in this regime, and propose a new GBDT variant, GBDT-SPARSE, to resolve this problem by employing L0 regularization. We then discuss in detail how to utilize this sparsity to conduct GBDT training, including splitting the nodes, computing the sparse residual, and predicting in sub-linear time. Finally, we apply our algorithm to extreme multilabel classification problems, and show that the proposed GBDT-SPARSE achieves an order of magnitude improvements in model size and prediction time over existing methods, while yielding similar performance. We study resource-limited online learning, motivated by the problem of conditional-branch outcome prediction in computer architecture. In particular, we consider (parallel) time and space-efficient ensemble learners for online settings, empirically demonstrating benefits similar to those shown previously for offline ensembles. Our learning algorithms are inspired by the previously published “boosting by filtering” framework as well as the offline Arc-x4 boosting-style algorithm. We train ensembles of online decision trees using a novel variant of the ID4 online decision-tree algorithm as the base learner, and show empirical results for both boosting and bagging-style online ensemble methods. Our results evaluate these methods on both our branch prediction domain and online variants of three familiar machine-learning benchmarks. Our data justifies three key claims. First, we show empirically that our extensions to ID4 significantly improve performance for single trees and additionally are critical to achieving performance gains in tree ensembles. Second, our results indicate significant improvements in predictive accuracy with ensemble size for the boosting-style algorithm. The bagging algorithms we tried showed poor performance relative to the boosting-style algorithm (but still improve upon individual base learners). Third, we show that ensembles of small trees are often able to outperform large single trees with the same number of nodes (and similarly outperform smaller ensembles of larger trees that use the same total number of nodes). This makes online boosting particularly useful in domains such as branch prediction with tight space restrictions (i.e., the available real-estate on a microprocessor chip). Recommending phrases from web pages for advertisers to bid on against search engine queries is an important research problem with direct commercial impact. Most approaches have found it infeasible to determine the relevance of all possible queries to a given ad landing page and have focussed on making recommendations from a small set of phrases extracted (and expanded) from the page using NLP and ranking based techniques. In this paper, we eschew this paradigm, and demonstrate that it is possible to efficiently predict the relevant subset of queries from a large set of monetizable ones by posing the problem as a multi-label learning task with each query being represented by a separate label. We develop Multi-label Random Forests to tackle problems with millions of labels. Our proposed classifier has prediction costs that are logarithmic in the number of labels and can make predictions in a few milliseconds using 10 Gb of RAM. We demonstrate that it is possible to generate training data for our classifier automatically from click logs without any human annotation or intervention. We train our classifier on tens of millions of labels, features and training points in less than two days on a thousand node cluster. We develop a sparse semi-supervised multi-label learning formulation to deal with training set biases and noisy labels harvested automatically from the click logs. This formulation is used to infer a belief in the state of each label for each training ad and the random forest classifier is extended to train on these beliefs rather than the given labels. Experiments reveal significant gains over ranking and NLP based techniques on a large test set of 5 million ads using multiple metrics. Health surveillance systems based on online user-generated content often rely on the identification of textual markers that are related to a target disease. Given the high volume of available data, these systems benefit from an automatic feature selection process. This is accomplished either by applying statistical learning techniques, which do not consider the semantic relationship between the selected features and the inference task, or by developing labour-intensive text classifiers. In this paper, we use neural word embeddings, trained on social media content from Twitter, to determine, in an unsupervised manner, how strongly textual features are semantically linked to an underlying health concept. We then refine conventional feature selection methods by a priori operating on textual variables that are sufficiently close to a target concept. Our experiments focus on the supervised learning problem of estimating influenza-like illness rates from Google search queries. A "flu infection" concept is formulated and used to reduce spurious and potentially confounding features that were selected by previously applied approaches. In this way, we also address forms of scepticism regarding the appropriateness of the feature space, alleviating potential cases of overfitting. Ultimately, the proposed hybrid feature selection method creates a more reliable model that, according to our empirical analysis, improves the inference performance (Mean Absolute Error) of linear and nonlinear regressors by 12 and 28.7 , respectively. A central problem in machine learning is identifying a representative set of features from which to construct a classification model for a particular task. This thesis addresses the problem of feature selection for machine learning through a correlation based approach. The central hypothesis is that good feature sets contain features that are highly correlated with the class, yet uncorrelated with each other. A feature evaluation formula, based on ideas from test theory, provides an operational definition of this hypothesis. CFS (Correlation based Feature Selection) is an algorithm that couples this evaluation formula with an appropriate correlation measure and a heuristic search strategy. CFS was evaluated by experiments on artificial and natural datasets. Three machine learning algorithms were used: C4.5 (a decision tree learner), IB1 (an instance based learner), and naive Bayes. Experiments on artificial datasets showed that CFS quickly identifies and screens irrelevant, redundant, and noisy features, and identifies relevant features as long as their relevance does not strongly depend on other features. On natural domains, CFS typically eliminated well over half the features. In most cases, classification accuracy using the reduced feature set equaled or bettered accuracy using the complete feature set. Feature selection degraded machine learning performance in cases where some features were eliminated which were highly predictive of very small areas of the instance space. Further experiments compared CFS with a wrapper—a well known approach to feature selection that employs the target learning algorithm to evaluate feature sets. In many cases CFS gave comparable results to the wrapper, and in general, outperformed the wrapper on small datasets. CFS executes many times faster than the wrapper, which allows it to scale to larger datasets. Two methods of extending CFS to handle feature interaction are presented and experimentally evaluated. The first considers pairs of features and the second incorporates iii feature weights calculated by the RELIEF algorithm. Experiments on artificial domains showed that both methods were able to identify interacting features. On natural domains, the pairwise method gave more reliable results than using weights provided by RELIEF.