The Moran process is a randomised algorithm that models the spread of genetic mutations through graphs. If the graph is connected, the process eventually reaches "fixation", where every vertex is a mutant, or "extinction", where no vertex is a mutant. Our main result is an almost-tight bound on the expected running time of the algorithm. For all epsilon > 0, we show that the expected running time on an n-vertex graph is o(n^(3+epsilon)). In fact, we show that it is at most n^3 * exp(O((log log n)^3)) and that there is a family of graphs where it is Omega(n^3). In the course of proving our main result, we also establish a phase transition in the probability of fixation, depending on the fitness parameter r of the mutation. We show that no similar phase transition occurs for digraphs, where it is already known that the expected running time can also be exponential. Finally, we give an improved FPRAS for approximating the probability of fixation. Its running time is independent of the size of the graph when the maximum degree is bounded.
Prior to Theorem , it was known that for all @math -vertex graphs @math , @math is increasing in @math @cite_3 and that @math [Lemma 1] DGMRSS2014 . Thus @math for all @math , and @math for all @math . To our knowledge, these were the best previously known bounds that apply to all graphs, and the only known bound for @math . When @math , given a fixed initial mutant @math , Mertzios and Spirakis [Theorem 4] MS2013 showed that fixation occurs with probability at least @math , and a result of Giakkoupis [Lemma 6] Gia2016 implies that fixation occurs with probability at least @math . These results both imply better bounds than @math in the case where @math is sparse or has high minimum degree.
@cite_3
2205121374
This work extends what is known so far for a basic model of evolutionary antagonism in undirected networks (graphs). More specifically, this work studies the generalized Moran process, as introduced by Lieberman, Hauert, and Nowak [Nature, 433:312-316, 2005], where the individuals of a population reside on the vertices of an undirected connected graph. The initial population has a single mutant of a fitness value r (typically r>1), residing at some vertex v of the graph, while every other vertex is initially occupied by an individual of fitness 1. At every step of this process, an individual (i.e. vertex) is randomly chosen for reproduction with probability proportional to its fitness, and then it places a copy of itself on a random neighbor, thus replacing the individual that was residing there. The main quantity of interest is the fixation probability, i.e. the probability that eventually the whole graph is occupied by descendants of the mutant. In this work we concentrate on the fixation probability when the mutant is initially on a specific vertex v, thus refining the older notion of which studied the fixation probability when the initial mutant is placed at a random vertex. We then aim at finding graphs that have many "strong starts" (or many "weak starts") for the mutant. Thus we introduce a parameterized notion of selective amplifiers (resp. selective suppressors) of evolution. We prove the existence of strong selective amplifiers (i.e. for h(n)=Θ(n) vertices v the fixation probability of v is at least @math for a function c(r) that depends only on r), and the existence of quite strong selective suppressors. Regarding the traditional notion of fixation probability from a random start, we provide strong upper and lower bounds: first we demonstrate the non-existence of "strong universal" amplifiers, and second we prove the Thermal Theorem which states that for any undirected graph, when the mutant starts at vertex v, the fixation probability at least @math . This theorem (which extends the "Isothermal Theorem" of for regular graphs) implies an almost tight lower bound for the usual notion of fixation probability. Our proof techniques are original and are based on new domination arguments which may be of general interest in Markov Processes that are of the general birth-death type.