Agent-based models (ABM) are gaining traction as one of the most powerful modelling tools within the social sciences. They are particularly suited to simulating complex systems. Despite many methodological advances within ABM, one of the major drawbacks is their inability to incorporate real-time data to make accurate short-term predictions. This paper presents an approach that allows ABMs to be dynamically optimised. Through a combination of parameter calibration and data assimilation (DA), the accuracy of model-based predictions using ABM in real time is increased. We use the exemplar of a bus route system to explore these methods. The bus route ABMs developed in this research are examples of ABMs that can be dynamically optimised by a combination of parameter calibration and DA. The proposed model and framework can also be used in an passenger information system, or in an Intelligent Transport Systems to provide forecasts of bus locations and arrival times.
This paper follows an identical twin' experiment framework @cite_0 , where experiment data to be used will be generated from simulation, instead of using real data. The reason is that real data often comes with noise that hides the true state of the bus route (e.g. noise from GPS data). A simulated synthetic data would enable us to control the level of noise in the data, and to evaluate the modelling results against the ground truth rather than noisy data. Figure shows the workflow of this study.
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Simulated, false location reports can be an effective way to confuse a privacy attacker. When a mobile user must transmit his or her location to a central server, these location reports can be accompanied by false reports that, ideally, cannot be distinguished from the true one. The realism of the false reports is important, because otherwise an attacker could filter out all but the real data. Using our database of GPS tracks from over 250 volunteer drivers, we developed probabilistic models of driving behavior and applied the models to create realistic driving trips. The simulations model realistic start and end points, slightly non-optimal routes, realistic driving speeds, and spatially varying GPS noise.