Patients in the intensive care unit (ICU) require constant and close supervision. To assist clinical staff in this task, hospitals use monitoring systems that trigger audiovisual alarms if their algorithms indicate that a patient's condition may be worsening. However, current monitoring systems are extremely sensitive to movement artefacts and technical errors. As a result, they typically trigger hundreds to thousands of false alarms per patient per day - drowning the important alarms in noise and adding to the exhaustion of clinical staff. In this setting, data is abundantly available, but obtaining trustworthy annotations by experts is laborious and expensive. We frame the problem of false alarm reduction from multivariate time series as a machine-learning task and address it with a novel multitask network architecture that utilises distant supervision through multiple related auxiliary tasks in order to reduce the number of expensive labels required for training. We show that our approach leads to significant improvements over several state-of-the-art baselines on real-world ICU data and provide new insights on the importance of task selection and architectural choices in distantly supervised multitask learning.
Driven by widespread efforts to automate patient monitoring, there has been a recent surge in works applying machine learning to the vast amounts of data generated in ICUs. One notable driver is the MIMIC @cite_16 dataset that has made ICU data accessible to a large number of researchers. Related works have, for example, explored the use of ICU data for tasks such as mortality modelling @cite_13 , illness assessment and forecasting @cite_46 , diagnostic support @cite_18 , patient state prediction @cite_37 and learning weaning policies for mechanical ventilation @cite_49 . Applying machine-learning approaches to clinical and physiological data is challenging, because it is heterogenous, noisy, confounded, sparse and of high temporal resolution over long periods of time. These properties are in stark contrast to many of the benchmark datasets that machine-learning approaches are typically developed and evaluated on. Several works therefore deal with adapting existing machine-learning approaches to the idiosyncrasies of clinical and physiological data, such as missingness @cite_14 @cite_12 , long-term temporal dependencies @cite_8 , noise @cite_3 , heterogeneity @cite_26 and sparsity @cite_50 . We build on several of these innovations in this work.
@cite_37 @cite_18 @cite_14 @cite_26 @cite_8 @cite_3 @cite_49 @cite_50 @cite_46 @cite_16 @cite_13 @cite_12
2764165920 2755482777 2562568662 2106107776 2950123077 2188373600 2000292092 2963639714 2046788142 2963078493 2148330046 2141173017
Abstract Background Mortality prediction of hospitalized patients is an important problem. Over the past few decades, several severity scoring systems and machine learning mortality prediction models have been developed for predicting hospital mortality. By contrast, early mortality prediction for intensive care unit patients remains an open challenge. Most research has focused on severity of illness scoring systems or data mining (DM) models designed for risk estimation at least 24 or 48 h after ICU admission. Objectives This study highlights the main data challenges in early mortality prediction in ICU patients and introduces a new machine learning based framework for Early Mortality Prediction for Intensive Care Unit patients (EMPICU). Materials and methods The proposed method is evaluated on the Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care II (MIMIC-II) database. Mortality prediction models are developed for patients at the age of 16 or above in Medical ICU (MICU), Surgical ICU (SICU) or Cardiac Surgery Recovery Unit (CSRU). We employ the ensemble learning Random Forest (RF), the predictive Decision Trees (DT), the probabilistic Naive Bayes (NB) and the rule-based Projective Adaptive Resonance Theory (PART) models. The primary outcome was hospital mortality. The explanatory variables included demographic, physiological, vital signs and laboratory test variables. Performance measures were calculated using cross-validated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) to minimize bias. 11,722 patients with single ICU stays are considered. Only patients at the age of 16 years old and above in Medical ICU (MICU), Surgical ICU (SICU) or Cardiac Surgery Recovery Unit (CSRU) are considered in this study. Results The proposed EMPICU framework outperformed standard scoring systems (SOFA, SAPS-I, APACHE-II, NEWS and qSOFA) in terms of AUROC and time (i.e. at 6 h compared to 48 h or more after admission). Discussion and conclusion The results show that although there are many values missing in the first few hour of ICU admission, there is enough signal to effectively predict mortality during the first 6 h of admission. The proposed framework, in particular the one that uses the ensemble learning approach – EMPICU Random Forest (EMPICU-RF) offers a base to construct an effective and novel mortality prediction model in the early hours of an ICU patient admission, with an improved performance profile. There are approximately 4 million intensive care unit (ICU) admissions each year in the United States with costs accounting for 4.1 of national health expenditures. Unforeseen adverse events contribute disproportionately to these costs. Thus, there has been substantial research in developing clinical decision support systems to predict and improve ICU outcomes such as ICU mortality, prolonged length of stay, and ICU readmission. However, the data in the ICU is collected at diverse time intervals and includes both static and temporal data. Common methods for static data mining such as Cox and logistic regression and methods for temporal data analysis such as temporal association rule mining do not model the combination of both static and temporal data. This work aims to overcome this challenge to combine static models such as logistic regression and feedforward neural networks with temporal models such as conditional random fields(CRF). We demonstrate the results using adult patient records from a publicly available database called Multi-parameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care - II (MIMIC-II). We show that the combination models outperformed individual models of logistic regression, feed-forward neural networks and conditional random fields in predicting ICU mortality. The combination models also outperform the static models of logistic regression and feed-forward neural networks for the prediction of 30 day ICU readmissions when tested using Matthews correlation coefficient and accuracy as the metrics. ICU mortality risk prediction may help clinicians take effective interventions to improve patient outcome. Existing machine learning approaches often face challenges in integrating a comprehensive panel of physiologic variables and presenting to clinicians interpretable models. We aim to improve both accuracy and interpretability of prediction models by introducing Subgraph Augmented Non-negative Matrix Factorization (SANMF) on ICU physiologic time series. SANMF converts time series into a graph representation and applies frequent subgraph mining to automatically extract temporal trends. We then apply non-negative matrix factorization to group trends in a way that approximates patient pathophysiologic states. Trend groups are then used as features in training a logistic regression model for mortality risk prediction, and are also ranked according to their contribution to mortality risk. We evaluated SANMF against four empirical models on the task of predicting mortality or survival 30 days after discharge from ICU using the observed physiologic measurements between 12 and 24 hours after admission. SANMF outperforms all comparison models, and in particular, demonstrates an improvement in AUC (0.848 vs. 0.827, p<0.002) compared to a state-of-the-art machine learning method that uses manual feature engineering. Feature analysis was performed to illuminate insights and benefits of subgraph groups in mortality risk prediction. Background Existing risk adjustment models for intensive care unit (ICU) outcomes rely on manual abstraction of patient-level predictors from medical charts. Developing an automated method for abstracting these data from free text might reduce cost and data collection times. @PARASPLIT Objective To develop a support vector machine (SVM) classifier capable of identifying a range of procedures and diagnoses in ICU clinical notes for use in risk adjustment. @PARASPLIT Materials and methods We selected notes from 2001–2008 for 4191 neonatal ICU (NICU) and 2198 adult ICU patients from the MIMIC-II database from the Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center. Using these notes, we developed an implementation of the SVM classifier to identify procedures (mechanical ventilation and phototherapy in NICU notes) and diagnoses (jaundice in NICU and intracranial hemorrhage (ICH) in adult ICU). On the jaundice classification task, we also compared classifier performance using n-gram features to unigrams with application of a negation algorithm (NegEx). @PARASPLIT Results Our classifier accurately identified mechanical ventilation (accuracy=0.982, F1=0.954) and phototherapy use (accuracy=0.940, F1=0.912), as well as jaundice (accuracy=0.898, F1=0.884) and ICH diagnoses (accuracy=0.938, F1=0.943). Including bigram features improved performance on the jaundice (accuracy=0.898 vs 0.865) and ICH (0.938 vs 0.927) tasks, and outperformed NegEx-derived unigram features (accuracy=0.898 vs 0.863) on the jaundice task. @PARASPLIT Discussion Overall, a classifier using n-gram support vectors displayed excellent performance characteristics. The classifier generalizes to diverse patient populations, diagnoses, and procedures. @PARASPLIT Conclusions SVM-based classifiers can accurately identify procedure status and diagnoses among ICU patients, and including n-gram features improves performance, compared to existing methods. Over the past decade the rate of care unit (CU) use in the United States has been increasing. With an aging population and ever-growing demand for medical care, effective management of patients' transitions among different care facilities will prove indispensible for shortening the length of hospital stays, improving patient outcomes, allocating critical care resources, and reducing preventable re-admissions. In this paper, we focus on an important problem of predicting the so-called "patient flow" from longitudinal electronic health records (EHRs), which has not been explored via existing machine learning techniques. By treating a sequence of transition events as a point process, we develop a novel framework for modeling patient flow through various CUs and jointly predicting patients' destination CUs and duration days. Instead of learning a generative point process model via maximum likelihood estimation, we propose a novel discriminative learning algorithm aiming at improving the prediction of transition events in the case of sparse data. By parameterizing the proposed model as a mutually-correcting process, we formulate the estimation problem via generalized linear models, which lends itself to efficient learning based on alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM). Furthermore, we achieve simultaneous feature selection and learning by adding a group-lasso regularizer to the ADMM algorithm. Additionally, for suppressing the negative influence of data imbalance on the learning of model, we synthesize auxiliary training data for the classes with extremely few samples, and improve the robustness of our learning method accordingly. Testing on real-world data, we show that our method obtains superior performance in terms of accuracy of predicting the destination CU transition and duration of each CU occupancy. Recognizing human activities from wearable sensor data is an important problem, particularly for health and eldercare applications. However, collecting sufficient labeled training data is challenging, especially since interpreting IMU traces is difficult for human annotators. Recently, crowdsourcing through services such as Amazon's Mechanical Turk has emerged as a promising alternative for annotating such data, with active learning (Cohn, Ghahramani, and Jordan 1996) serving as a natural method for affordably selecting an appropriate subset of instances to label. Unfortunately, since most active learning strategies are greedy methods that select the most uncertain sample, they are very sensitive to annotation errors (which corrupt a significant fraction of crowdsourced labels). This paper proposes methods for robust active learning under these conditions. Specifically, we make three contributions: 1) we obtain better initial labels by asking labelers to solve a related task; 2) we propose a new principled method for selecting instances in active learning that is more robust to annotation noise; 3) we estimate confidence scores for labels acquired from MTurk and ask workers to relabel samples that receive low scores under this metric. The proposed method is shown to significantly outperform existing techniques both under controlled noise conditions and in real active learning scenarios. The resulting method trains classifiers that are close in accuracy to those trained using ground-truth data. Many machine learning and pattern classification methods have been applied to the diagnosis of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and its prodromal stage, i.e., mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Recently, rather than predicting categorical variables as in classification, several pattern regression methods have also been used to estimate continuous clinical variables from brain images. However, most existing regression methods focus on estimating multiple clinical variables separately and thus cannot utilize the intrinsic useful correlation information among different clinical variables. On the other hand, in those regression methods, only a single modality of data (usually only the structural MRI) is often used, without considering the complementary information that can be provided by different modalities. In this paper, we propose a general methodology, namely Multi-Modal Multi-Task (M3T) learning, to jointly predict multiple variables from multi-modal data. Here, the variables include not only the clinical variables used for regression but also the categorical variable used for classification, with different tasks corresponding to prediction of different variables. Specifically, our method contains two key components, i.e., (1) a multi-task feature selection which selects the common subset of relevant features for multiple variables from each modality, and (2) a multi-modal support vector machine which fuses the above-selected features from all modalities to predict multiple (regression and classification) variables. To validate our method, we perform two sets of experiments on ADNI baseline MRI, FDG-PET, and cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) data from 45 AD patients, 91 MCI patients, and 50 healthy controls (HC). In the first set of experiments, we estimate two clinical variables such as Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) and Alzheimer’s Disease Assessment Scale - Cognitive Subscale (ADAS-Cog), as well as one categorical variable (with value of ‘AD’, ‘MCI’ or ‘HC’), from the baseline MRI, FDG-PET, and CSF data. In the second set of experiments, we predict the 2-year changes of MMSE and ADAS-Cog scores and also the conversion of MCI to AD from the baseline MRI, FDG-PET, and CSF data. The results on both sets of experiments demonstrate that our proposed M3T learning scheme can achieve better performance on both regression and classification tasks than the conventional learning methods. Despite tremendous progress in computer vision, there has not been an attempt to apply machine learning on very large-scale medical image databases. We present an interleaved text image deep learning system to extract and mine the semantic interactions of radiology images and reports from a national research hospital's Picture Archiving and Communication System. With natural language processing, we mine a collection of ∼216K representative two-dimensional images selected by clinicians for diagnostic reference and match the images with their descriptions in an automated manner. We then employ a weakly supervised approach using all of our available data to build models for generating approximate interpretations of patient images. Finally, we demonstrate a more strictly supervised approach to detect the presence and absence of a number of frequent disease types, providing more specific interpretations of patient scans. A relatively small amount of data is used for this part, due to the challenge in gathering quality labels from large raw text data. Our work shows the feasibility of large-scale learning and prediction in electronic patient records available in most modern clinical institutions. It also demonstrates the trade-offs to consider in designing machine learning systems for analyzing large medical data. Objective: We sought to develop an intensive care unit research database applying automated techniques to aggregate high-resolution diagnostic and therapeutic data from a large, diverse population of adult intensive care unit patients. This freely available database is intended to support epidemiologic research in critical care medicine and serve as a resource to evaluate new clinical decision support and monitoring algorithms. Design: Data collection and retrospective analysis. Setting: All adult intensive care units (medical intensive care unit, surgical intensive care unit, cardiac care unit, cardiac surgery recovery unit) at a tertiary care hospital. Patients: Adult patients admitted to intensive care units between 2001 and 2007. Interventions: None. Measurements and Main Results: The Multiparameter Intelligent Monitoring in Intensive Care II (MIMIC-II) database consists of 25,328 intensive care unit stays. The investigators collected detailed information about intensive care unit patient stays, including laboratory data, therapeutic intervention profiles such as vasoactive medication drip rates and ventilator settings, nursing progress notes, discharge summaries, radiology reports, provider order entry data, International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision codes, and, for a subset of patients, high-resolution vital sign trends and waveforms. Data were automatically deidentified to comply with Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act standards and integrated with relational database software to create electronic intensive care unit records for each patient stay. The data were made freely available in February 2010 through the Internet along with a detailed user’s guide and an assortment of data processing tools. The overall hospital mortality rate was 11.7 , which varied by critical care unit. The median intensive care unit length of stay was 2.2 days (interquartile range, 1.1‐4.4 days). According to the primary International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision codes, the following disease categories each comprised at least 5 of the case records: diseases of the circulatory system (39.1 ); trauma (10.2 ); diseases of the digestive system (9.7 ); pulmonary diseases (9.0 ); infectious diseases (7.0 ); and neoplasms (6.8 ). Conclusions: MIMIC-II documents a diverse and very large population of intensive care unit patient stays and contains comprehensive and detailed clinical data, including physiological waveforms and minute-by-minute trends for a subset of records. It establishes a new public-access resource for critical care research, supporting a diverse range of analytic studies spanning epidemiology, clinical decision-rule development, and electronic tool development. (Crit Care Med 2011; 39:952‐960) Abstract: Clinical medical data, especially in the intensive care unit (ICU), consist of multivariate time series of observations. For each patient visit (or episode), sensor data and lab test results are recorded in the patient's Electronic Health Record (EHR). While potentially containing a wealth of insights, the data is difficult to mine effectively, owing to varying length, irregular sampling and missing data. Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), particularly those using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) hidden units, are powerful and increasingly popular models for learning from sequence data. They effectively model varying length sequences and capture long range dependencies. We present the first study to empirically evaluate the ability of LSTMs to recognize patterns in multivariate time series of clinical measurements. Specifically, we consider multilabel classification of diagnoses, training a model to classify 128 diagnoses given 13 frequently but irregularly sampled clinical measurements. First, we establish the effectiveness of a simple LSTM network for modeling clinical data. Then we demonstrate a straightforward and effective training strategy in which we replicate targets at each sequence step. Trained only on raw time series, our models outperform several strong baselines, including a multilayer perceptron trained on hand-engineered features. We present a machine learning-based methodology capable of providing real-time (“nowcast”) and forecast estimates of influenza activity in the US by leveraging data from multiple data sources including: Google searches, Twitter microblogs, nearly real-time hospital visit records, and data from a participatory surveillance system. Our main contribution consists of combining multiple influenza-like illnesses (ILI) activity estimates, generated independently with each data source, into a single prediction of ILI utilizing machine learning ensemble approaches. Our methodology exploits the information in each data source and produces accurate weekly ILI predictions for up to four weeks ahead of the release of CDC’s ILI reports. We evaluate the predictive ability of our ensemble approach during the 2013–2014 (retrospective) and 2014–2015 (live) flu seasons for each of the four weekly time horizons. Our ensemble approach demonstrates several advantages: (1) our ensemble method’s predictions outperform every prediction using each data source independently, (2) our methodology can produce predictions one week ahead of GFT’s real-time estimates with comparable accuracy, and (3) our two and three week forecast estimates have comparable accuracy to real-time predictions using an autoregressive model. Moreover, our results show that considerable insight is gained from incorporating disparate data streams, in the form of social media and crowd sourced data, into influenza predictions in all time horizons. Clinical medical data, especially in the intensive care unit (ICU), consist of multivariate time series of observations. For each patient visit (or episode), sensor data and lab test results are recorded in the patient's Electronic Health Record (EHR). While potentially containing a wealth of insights, the data is difficult to mine effectively, owing to varying length, irregular sampling and missing data. Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), particularly those using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) hidden units, are powerful and increasingly popular models for learning from sequence data. They effectively model varying length sequences and capture long range dependencies. We present the first study to empirically evaluate the ability of LSTMs to recognize patterns in multivariate time series of clinical measurements. Specifically, we consider multilabel classification of diagnoses, training a model to classify 128 diagnoses given 13 frequently but irregularly sampled clinical measurements. First, we establish the effectiveness of a simple LSTM network for modeling clinical data. Then we demonstrate a straightforward and effective training strategy in which we replicate targets at each sequence step. Trained only on raw time series, our models outperform several strong baselines, including a multilayer perceptron trained on hand-engineered features.