Many social media platforms offer a mechanism for readers to react to comments, both positively and negatively, which in aggregate can be thought of as community endorsement. This paper addresses the problem of predicting community endorsement in online discussions, leveraging both the participant response structure and the text of the comment. The different types of features are integrated in a neural network that uses a novel architecture to learn latent modes of discussion structure that perform as well as deep neural networks but are more interpretable. In addition, the latent modes can be used to weight text features thereby improving prediction accuracy.
The cumulative response of readers to social media and online content has been studied using a variety of measurements, including: the volume of comments in response to blog posts @cite_2 and news articles @cite_6 @cite_20 , the number of Twitter shares of news articles @cite_17 , the number of reshares on Facebook @cite_12 and retweets on Twitter @cite_0 @cite_4 @cite_26 @cite_10 , and the difference in the number of reader up and down votes on posts and comments in Reddit discussion forums @cite_24 @cite_3 . An advantage of working with the Reddit data is that both positive and negative reactions are accounted for, so the total (karma in Reddit) is a reasonable proxy for community endorsement.
@cite_26 @cite_4 @cite_6 @cite_3 @cite_0 @cite_24 @cite_2 @cite_20 @cite_10 @cite_12 @cite_17
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As crowd-sourced curation of news and information become the norm, it is important to understand not only how individuals consume information through social news Web sites, but also how they contribute to their ranking systems. In this paper, we introduce and make available a new data set containing the activity logs that recorded all activity for 309 Reddit users for one year. Using this newly collected data, we present findings that highlight the browsing and voting behavior of the study’s participants. We find that most users do not read the article that they vote on, and that, in total, 73 of posts were rated (i.e., upvoted or downvoted) without first viewing the content. We also show the evidence of cognitive fatigue in the browsing sessions of users that are most likely to vote. Increasingly people form opinions based on information they consume on online social media. As a result, it is crucial to understand what type of content attracts people's attention on social media and drive discussions. In this paper we focus on online discussions. Can we predict which comments and what content gets the highest attention in an online discussion? How does this content differ from community to community? To accomplish this, we undertake a unique study of Reddit involving a large sample comments from 11 popular subreddits with different properties. We introduce a large number of sentiment, relevance, content analysis features including some novel features customized to reddit. Through a comparative analysis of the chosen subreddits, we show that our models are correctly able to retrieve top replies under a post with great precision. In addition, we explain our findings with a detailed analysis of what distinguishes high scoring posts in different communities that differ along the dimensions of the specificity of topic and style, audience and level of moderation. The concern of privacy has become an important issue for online social networks. In services such as Foursquare.com, whether a person likes an article is considered private and therefore not disclosed; only the aggregative statistics of articles (i.e., how many people like this article) is revealed. This paper tries to answer a question: can we predict the opinion holder in a heterogeneous social network without any labeled data? This question can be generalized to a link prediction with aggregative statistics problem. This paper devises a novel unsupervised framework to solve this problem, including two main components: (1) a three-layer factor graph model and three types of potential functions; (2) a ranked-margin learning and inference algorithm. Finally, we evaluate our method on four diverse prediction scenarios using four datasets: preference (Foursquare), repost (Twitter), response (Plurk), and citation (DBLP). We further exploit nine unsupervised models to solve this problem as baselines. Our approach not only wins out in all scenarios, but on the average achieves 9.90 AUC and 12.59 NDCG improvement over the best competitors. The resources are available at http: www.csie.ntu.edu.tw d97944007 aggregative In this paper we seek to understand the relationship between the online popularity of an article and its intrinsic quality. Prior experimental work suggests that the relationship between quality and popularity can be very distorted due to factors like social influence bias and inequality in visibility. We conduct a study of popularity on two different social news aggregators, Reddit and Hacker News. We define quality as the number of votes an article would have received if each article was shown, in a bias-free way, to an equal number of users. We propose a simple Poisson regression method to estimate this quality metric from time-series voting data. We validate our methods on data from Reddit and Hacker News, as well the experimental data from prior work. Using these estimates, we find that popularity on Reddit and Hacker News is a relatively strong reflection of intrinsic quality. We analyze the online response to the preprint publication of a cohort of 4,606 scientific articles submitted to the preprint database arXiv.org between October 2010 and May 2011. We study three forms of responses to these preprints: downloads on the arXiv.org site, mentions on the social media site Twitter, and early citations in the scholarly record. We perform two analyses. First, we analyze the delay and time span of article downloads and Twitter mentions following submission, to understand the temporal configuration of these reactions and whether one precedes or follows the other. Second, we run regression and correlation tests to investigate the relationship between Twitter mentions, arXiv downloads, and article citations. We find that Twitter mentions and arXiv downloads of scholarly articles follow two distinct temporal patterns of activity, with Twitter mentions having shorter delays and narrower time spans than arXiv downloads. We also find that the volume of Twitter mentions is statistically correlated with arXiv downloads and early citations just months after the publication of a preprint, with a possible bias that favors highly mentioned articles. In the past few years, Reddit -- a community-driven platform for submitting, commenting and rating links and text posts -- has grown exponentially, from a small community of users into one of the largest online communities on the Web. To the best of our knowledge, this work represents the most comprehensive longitudinal study of Reddit's evolution to date, studying both (i) how user submissions have evolved over time and (ii) how the community's allocation of attention and its perception of submissions have changed over 5 years based on an analysis of almost 60 million submissions. Our work reveals an ever-increasing diversification of topics accompanied by a simultaneous concentration towards a few selected domains both in terms of posted submissions as well as perception and attention. By and large, our investigations suggest that Reddit has transformed itself from a dedicated gateway to the Web to an increasingly self-referential community that focuses on and reinforces its own user-generated image- and textual content over external sources. Many online communities ask their members to do work for the good of everyone on the site. On social voting sites like Reddit, this means that users judge a stream of incoming links by voting them up or down. The links with the most up-votes bubble up to the main page, pointing everyone toward the best content. A threat to all sites designed this way, however, is underprovision: when too many people rely on others to contribute without doing so themselves. In this paper, we present findings suggesting that widespread underprovision of votes is happening on Reddit, arguably the internet's largest social voting community. Notably, Reddit overlooked 52 of the most popular links the first time they were submitted. This suggests that many potentially popular links get ignored, jeopardizing the site's core purpose. We conclude by discussing possible reasons behind it, and suggest future research on social voting sites. In this paper, we propose a methodology to predict the popularity of online contents. More precisely, rather than trying to infer the popularity of a content itself, we infer the likelihood that a content will be popular. Our approach is rooted in survival analysis where predicting the precise lifetime of an individual is very hard and almost impossible but predicting the likelihood of one's survival longer than a threshold or another individual is possible. We position ourselves in the standpoint of an external observer who has to infer the popularity of a content only using publicly observable metrics, such as the lifetime of a thread, the number of comments, and the number of views. Our goal is to infer these observable metrics, using a set of explanatory factors, such as the number of comments and the number of links in the first hours after the content publication, which are observable by the external observer. We use a Cox proportional hazard regression model that divides the distribution function of the observable popularity metric into two components: a) one that can be explained by the given set of explanatory factors (called risk factors) and b) a baseline distribution function that integrates all the factors not taken into account. To validate our proposed approach, we use data sets from two different online discussion forums: dpreview.com, one of the largest online discussion groups providing news and discussion forums about all kinds of digital cameras, and myspace.com, one of the representative online social networking services. On these two data sets we model two different popularity metrics, the lifetime of threads and the number of comments, and show that our approach can predict the lifetime of threads from Dpreview (Myspace) by observing a thread during the first 5 6 days (24 hours, respectively) and the number of comments of Dpreview threads by observing a thread during first 2 3 days. This paper addresses the question of how language use affects community reaction to comments in online discussion forums, and the relative importance of the message vs. the messenger. A new comment ranking task is proposed based on community annotated karma in Reddit discussions, which controls for topic and timing of comments. Experimental work with discussion threads from six subreddits shows that the importance of different types of language features varies with the community of interest. Social networking websites allow users to create and share content. Big information cascades of post resharing can form as users of these sites reshare others' posts with their friends and followers. One of the central challenges in understanding such cascading behaviors is in forecasting information outbreaks, where a single post becomes widely popular by being reshared by many users. In this paper, we focus on predicting the final number of reshares of a given post. We build on the theory of self-exciting point processes to develop a statistical model that allows us to make accurate predictions. Our model requires no training or expensive feature engineering. It results in a simple and efficiently computable formula that allows us to answer questions, in real-time, such as: Given a post's resharing history so far, what is our current estimate of its final number of reshares? Is the post resharing cascade past the initial stage of explosive growth? And, which posts will be the most reshared in the future? We validate our model using one month of complete Twitter data and demonstrate a strong improvement in predictive accuracy over existing approaches. Our model gives only 15 relative error in predicting final size of an average information cascade after observing it for just one hour. Social networking websites allow users to create and share content. Big information cascades of post resharing can form as users of these sites reshare others' posts with their friends and followers. One of the central challenges in understanding such cascading behaviors is in forecasting information outbreaks, where a single post becomes widely popular by being reshared by many users. In this paper, we focus on predicting the final number of reshares of a given post. We build on the theory of self-exciting point processes to develop a statistical model that allows us to make accurate predictions. Our model requires no training or expensive feature engineering. It results in a simple and efficiently computable formula that allows us to answer questions, in real-time, such as: Given a post's resharing history so far, what is our current estimate of its final number of reshares? Is the post resharing cascade past the initial stage of explosive growth? And, which posts will be the most reshared in the future? We validate our model using one month of complete Twitter data and demonstrate a strong improvement in predictive accuracy over existing approaches. Our model gives only 15 relative error in predicting final size of an average information cascade after observing it for just one hour.