Twitter, a microblogging service, has evolved into a powerful communication platform with millions of active users who generate immense volume of microposts on a daily basis. To facilitate effective categorization and easy search, users adopt hashtags, keywords or phrases preceded by hash (#) character. Successful prediction of the spread and propagation of information in the form of trending topics or hashtags in Twitter, could help real time identification of new trends and thus improve marketing efforts. Social theories such as consistency theory suggest that people prefer harmony or consistency in their thoughts. In Twitter, for example, users are more likely to adopt the same trending hashtag multiple times before it eventually dies. In this paper, we propose a low-rank weighted matrix factorization approach to model trending hashtag adoption in Twitter based on consistency theory. In particular, we first cast the problem of modeling trending hashtag adoption into an optimization problem, then integrate consistency theory into it as a regularization term and finally leverage widely used matrix factorization to solve the optimization. Empirical experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms other baselines in predicting whether a specific trending hashtag will be used by users in future.
In the realm of social network analysis @cite_22 @cite_19 @cite_9 @cite_14 @cite_29 @cite_28 @cite_27 @cite_11 @cite_1 , diffusion of information has been an active research area in the social network analysis @cite_16 @cite_18 @cite_23 @cite_3 @cite_4 , however much less is known about spread of ideas in the form of hashtags. Specifically, prediction of adopting hashtags in a given time frame has been virtually an untrodden area yet.
@cite_18 @cite_14 @cite_4 @cite_22 @cite_28 @cite_29 @cite_9 @cite_1 @cite_3 @cite_19 @cite_27 @cite_23 @cite_16 @cite_11
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We present results of network analyses of information diffusion on Twitter, via users’ ongoing social interactions as denoted by “@username” mentions. Incorporating survival analysis, we constructed a novel model to capture the three major properties of information diffusion: speed, scale, and range. On the whole, we find that some properties of the tweets themselves predict greater information propagation but that properties of the users, the rate with which a user is mentioned historically in particular, are equal or stronger predictors. Implications for end users and system designers are discussed. Modeling the movement of information within social media outlets, like Twitter, is key to understanding to how ideas spread but quantifying such movement runs into several difficulties. Two specific areas that elude a clear characterization are (i) the intrinsic random nature of individuals to potentially adopt and subsequently broadcast a Twitter topic, and (ii) the dissemination of information via non-Twitter sources, such as news outlets and word of mouth, and its impact on Twitter propagation. These distinct yet inter-connected areas must be incorporated to generate a comprehensive model of information diffusion. We propose a bispace model to capture propagation in the union of (exclusively) Twitter and non-Twitter environments. To quantify the stochastic nature of Twitter topic propagation, we combine principles of geometric Brownian motion and traditional network graph theory. We apply Poisson process functions to model information diffusion outside of the Twitter mentions network. We discuss techniques to unify the two sub-models to accurately model information dissemination. We demonstrate the novel application of these techniques on real Twitter datasets related to mass protest adoption in social communities. There is a widespread intuitive sense that different kinds of information spread differently on-line, but it has been difficult to evaluate this question quantitatively since it requires a setting where many different kinds of information spread in a shared environment. Here we study this issue on Twitter, analyzing the ways in which tokens known as hashtags spread on a network defined by the interactions among Twitter users. We find significant variation in the ways that widely-used hashtags on different topics spread. Our results show that this variation is not attributable simply to differences in "stickiness," the probability of adoption based on one or more exposures, but also to a quantity that could be viewed as a kind of "persistence" - the relative extent to which repeated exposures to a hashtag continue to have significant marginal effects. We find that hashtags on politically controversial topics are particularly persistent, with repeated exposures continuing to have unusually large marginal effects on adoption; this provides, to our knowledge, the first large-scale validation of the "complex contagion" principle from sociology, which posits that repeated exposures to an idea are particularly crucial when the idea is in some way controversial or contentious. Among other findings, we discover that hashtags representing the natural analogues of Twitter idioms and neologisms are particularly non-persistent, with the effect of multiple exposures decaying rapidly relative to the first exposure. We also study the subgraph structure of the initial adopters for different widely-adopted hashtags, again finding structural differences across topics. We develop simulation-based and generative models to analyze how the adoption dynamics interact with the network structure of the early adopters on which a hashtag spreads. Although one might argue that little wisdom can be conveyed in messages of 140 characters or less, this paper sets out to explore whether the aggregation of messages in social awareness streams, such as Twitter, conveys meaningful information about a given domain. As a research community, we know little about the structural and semantic properties of such streams, and how they can be analyzed, characterized and used. This paper introduces a network-theoretic model of social awareness stream, a so-called "tweetonomy", together with a set of stream-based measures that allow researchers to systematically define and compare different stream aggregations. We apply the model and measures to a dataset acquired from Twitter to study emerging semantics in selected streams. The network-theoretic model and the corresponding measures introduced in this paper are relevant for researchers interested in information retrieval and ontology learning from social awareness streams. Our empirical findings demonstrate that different social awareness stream aggregations exhibit interesting differences, making them amenable for different applications. The emergence and wide-spread use of online social networks has led to a dramatic increase on the availability of social activity data. Importantly, this data can be exploited to investigate, at a microscopic level, some of the problems that have captured the attention of economists, marketers and sociologists for decades, such as, e.g., product adoption, usage and competition. In this paper, we propose a continuous-time probabilistic model, based on temporal point processes, for the adoption and frequency of use of competing products, where the frequency of use of one product can be modulated by those of others. This model allows us to efficiently simulate the adoption and recurrent usages of competing products, and generate traces in which we can easily recognize the effect of social influence, recency and competition. We then develop an inference method to efficiently fit the model parameters by solving a convex program. The problem decouples into a collection of smaller subproblems, thus scaling easily to networks with hundred of thousands of nodes. We validate our model over synthetic and real diffusion data gathered from Twitter, and show that the proposed model does not only provides a good fit to the data and more accurate predictions than alternatives but also provides interpretable model parameters, which allow us to gain insights into some of the factors driving product adoption and frequency of use. The paper explores the use of concepts in cognitive psychology to evaluate the spread of misinformation, disinformation and propaganda in online social networks. Analysing online social networks to identify metrics to infer cues of deception will enable us to measure diffusion of misinformation. The cognitive process involved in the decision to spread information involves answering four main questions viz consistency of message, coherency of message, credibility of source and general acceptability of message. We have used the cues of deception to analyse these questions to obtain solutions for preventing the spread of misinformation. We have proposed an algorithm to effectively detect deliberate spread of false information which would enable users to make informed decisions while spreading information in social networks. The computationally efficient algorithm uses the collaborative filtering property of social networks to measure the credibility of sources of information as well as quality of news items. The validation of the proposed methodology has been done on the online social network Twitter’. The recent wave of mobilizations in the Arab world and across Western countries has generated much discussion on how digital media is connected to the diffusion of protests. We examine that connection using data from the surge of mobilizations that took place in Spain in May 2011. We study recruitment patterns in the Twitter network and find evidence of social influence and complex contagion. We identify the network position of early participants (i.e. the leaders of the recruitment process) and of the users who acted as seeds of message cascades (i.e. the spreaders of information). We find that early participants cannot be characterized by a typical topological position but spreaders tend to be more central in the network. These findings shed light on the connection between online networks, social contagion, and collective dynamics, and offer an empirical test to the recruitment mechanisms theorized in formal models of collective action. Diffusion of information, spread of rumors and infectious diseases are all instances of stochastic processes that occur over the edges of an underlying network. Many times networks over which contagions spread are unobserved, and such networks are often dynamic and change over time. In this paper, we investigate the problem of inferring dynamic networks based on information diffusion data. We assume there is an unobserved dynamic network that changes over time, while we observe the results of a dynamic process spreading over the edges of the network. The task then is to infer the edges and the dynamics of the underlying network. We develop an on-line algorithm that relies on stochastic convex optimization to efficiently solve the dynamic network inference problem. We apply our algorithm to information diffusion among 3.3 million mainstream media and blog sites and experiment with more than 179 million different pieces of information spreading over the network in a one year period. We study the evolution of information pathways in the online media space and find interesting insights. Information pathways for general recurrent topics are more stable across time than for on-going news events. Clusters of news media sites and blogs often emerge and vanish in matter of days for on-going news events. Major social movements and events involving civil population, such as the Libyan' s civil war or Syria' s uprise, lead to an increased amount of information pathways among blogs as well as in the overall increase in the network centrality of blogs and social media sites. Platforms such as Twitter have provided researchers with ample opportunities to analytically study social phenomena. There are however, significant computational challenges due to the enormous rate of production of new information: researchers are therefore, often forced to analyze a judiciously selected “sample” of the data. Like other social media phenomena, information diffusion is a social process–it is affected by user context, and topic, in addition to the graph topology. This paper studies the impact of different attribute and topology based sampling strategies on the discovery of an important social media phenomena–information diffusion. We examine several widely-adopted sampling methods that select nodes based on attribute (random, location, and activity) and topology (forest fire) as well as study the impact of attribute based seed selection on topology based sampling. Then we develop a series of metrics for evaluating the quality of the sample, based on user activity (e.g. volume, number of seeds), topological (e.g. reach, spread) and temporal characteristics (e.g. rate). We additionally correlate the diffusion volume metric with two external variables–search and news trends. Our experiments reveal that for small sample sizes (30 ), a sample that incorporates both topology and user context (e.g. location, activity) can improve on naive methods by a significant margin of 15-20 . Viral marketing, marketing techniques that use pre-existing social networks, has experienced a significant encouragement in the last years. In this scope, Twitter is the most studied social network in viral marketing and the rumor spread is a widely researched problem. This paper contributes with a survey of research works which study rumor diffusion in Twitter. Moreover, the most useful aspects of these works to build new multi-agent based simulations dealing with this interesting and complex problem are discussed. The main four research lines in rumor dissemination found and discussed in this paper are: exploratory data analysis, rumor detection, epidemiological modeling, and multi-agent based social simulation. The survey shows that the reproducibility in the specialized literature has to be considerably improved. Finally, a free and open-source simulation tool implementing several of the models considered in this survey is presented. Social networks play a fundamental role in the diffusion of information. However, there are two different ways of how information reaches a person in a network. Information reaches us through connections in our social networks, as well as through the influence external out-of-network sources, like the mainstream media. While most present models of information adoption in networks assume information only passes from a node to node via the edges of the underlying network, the recent availability of massive online social media data allows us to study this process in more detail. We present a model in which information can reach a node via the links of the social network or through the influence of external sources. We then develop an efficient model parameter fitting technique and apply the model to the emergence of URL mentions in the Twitter network. Using a complete one month trace of Twitter we study how information reaches the nodes of the network. We quantify the external influences over time and describe how these influences affect the information adoption. We discover that the information tends to "jump" across the network, which can only be explained as an effect of an unobservable external influence on the network. We find that only about 71 of the information volume in Twitter can be attributed to network diffusion, and the remaining 29 is due to external events and factors outside the network. The identification of popular and important topics discussed in social networks is crucial for a better understanding of societ al concerns. It is also useful for users to stay on top of trends without having to sift through vast amounts of shared information. Trend detection methods introduced so far have not used the network topology and has thus not been able to distinguish viral topics from topics that are diffused mostly through the news media. To address this gap, we propose two novel structural trend definitions we call coordinated and uncoordinated trends that use friendship information to identify topics that are discussed among clustered and distributed users respectively. Our analyses and experiments show that structural trends are significantly different from traditional trends and provide new insights into the way people share information online. We also propose a sampling technique for structural trend detection and prove that the solution yields in a gain in efficiency and is within an acceptable error bound. Experiments performed on a Twitter data set of 41.7 million nodes and 417 million posts show that even with a sampling rate of 0.005, the average precision is 0.93 for coordinated trends and 1 for uncoordinated trends. Analyzing the spreading patterns of memes with respect to their topic distributions and the underlying diffusion network structures is an important task in social network analysis. This task in many cases becomes very challenging since the underlying diffusion networks are often hidden, and the topic specific transmission rates are unknown either. In this paper, we propose a continuous time model, TOPICCASCADE, for topicsensitive information diffusion networks, and infer the hidden diffusion networks and the topic dependent transmission rates from the observed time stamps and contents of cascades. One attractive property of the model is that its parameters can be estimated via a convex optimization which we solve with an efficient proximal gradient based block coordinate descent (BCD) algorithm. In both synthetic and real-world data, we show that our method significantly improves over the previous state-of-the-art models in terms of both recovering the hidden diffusion networks and predicting the transmission times of memes. In 2010, a paper entitled "From Obscurity to Prominence in Minutes: Political Speech and Real-time search" won the Best Paper Prize of the WebSci'10 conference. Among its findings were the discovery and documentation of what was labeled a "Twitter bomb", an organized effort to spread misinformation about the democratic candidate Martha Coakley through anonymous Twitter accounts. In this paper, after summarizing the details of that event, we outline the recipe of how social networks are used to spread misinformation. One of the most important steps in such a recipe is the "infiltration" of a community of users who are already engaged in conversations about a topic, to use them as organic spreaders of misinformation in their extended subnetworks. Then, we take this misinformation spreading recipe and indicate how it was successfully used to spread fake news during the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election. The main differences between the scenarios are the use of Facebook instead of Twitter, and the respective motivations (in 2010: political influence; in 2016: financial benefit through online advertising). After situating these events in the broader context of exploiting the Web, we seize this opportunity to address limitations of the reach of research findings and to start a conversation about how communities of researchers can in- crease their impact on real-world societ al issues.