In this paper we study the problem of predictability in partially observable discrete event systems, i.e., the question whether an observer can predict the occurrence of a fault. We extend the definition of predictability to consider the time interval where the fault will occur: the @math -predictability does not only specify that the fault will be predicted before it occurs, but also that the predictor will be able to predict that its occurrence will occur in @math to @math observations from now. We also provide a quadratic algorithm that decides predictability of the system.
@PARASPLIT While this is a minor issue, we provide an example and a comprehensive discussion that illustrate the complexity error from J ' @cite_8 . Consider the example of Figure a. This DES includes @math states and @math transitions. The single observable event is @math and the single unobservable event is @math (this example does not feature any faulty event). The twin plant then consists in @math states and @math transitions (details in Table ). The @math -reduction, presented on Figure b, contains one state fewer than the original DES but @math transitions. As a consequence, the number of states in the twin plant reduces down to @math but the number of transitions shoots up to @math (details in Table ).
@cite_8
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Consider a uniform random rooted tree on vertices labelled by @math , with edges directed towards the root. We imagine that each node of the tree has space for a single car to park. A number @math of cars arrive one by one, each at a node chosen independently and uniformly at random. If a car arrives at a space which is already occupied, it follows the unique path oriented towards the root until it encounters an empty space, in which case it parks there; if there is no empty space, it leaves the tree. Consider @math and let @math denote the event that all @math cars find spaces in the tree. Lackner and Panholzer proved (via analytic combinatorics methods) that there is a phase transition in this model. Then if @math , we have @math , whereas if @math we have @math . We give a probabilistic explanation for this phenomenon, and an alternative proof via the objective method. Along the way, we are led to consider the following variant of the problem: take the tree to be the family tree of a Galton-Watson branching process with Poisson(1) offspring distribution, and let an independent Poisson( @math ) number of cars arrive at each vertex. Let @math be the number of cars which visit the root of the tree. Then for @math , we have @math , whereas for @math , we have @math . This discontinuous phase transition turns out to be a generic phenomenon in settings with an arbitrary offspring distribution of mean at least 1 for the tree and arbitrary arrival distribution. Consider the problem of approximating the optimal policy of a Markov decision process (MDP) by sampling state transitions. In contrast to existing reinforcement learning methods that are based on successive approximations to the nonlinear Bellman equation, we propose a Primal-Dual @math Learning method in light of the linear duality between the value and policy. The @math learning method is model-free and makes primal-dual updates to the policy and value vectors as new data are revealed. For infinite-horizon undiscounted Markov decision process with finite state space @math and finite action space @math , the @math learning method finds an @math -optimal policy using the following number of sample transitions @math where @math is an upper bound of mixing times across all policies and @math is a parameter characterizing the range of stationary distributions across policies. The @math learning method also applies to the computational problem of MDP where the transition probabilities and rewards are explicitly given as the input. In the case where each state transition can be sampled in @math time, the @math learning method gives a sublinear-time algorithm for solving the averaged-reward MDP. We consider the problem of provably optimal exploration in reinforcement learning for finite horizon MDPs. We show that an optimistic modification to value iteration achieves a regret bound of @math where @math is the time horizon, @math the number of states, @math the number of actions and @math the number of time-steps. This result improves over the best previous known bound @math achieved by the UCRL2 algorithm of , 2010. The key significance of our new results is that when @math and @math , it leads to a regret of @math that matches the established lower bound of @math up to a logarithmic factor. Our analysis contains two key insights. We use careful application of concentration inequalities to the optimal value function as a whole, rather than to the transitions probabilities (to improve scaling in @math ), and we define Bernstein-based "exploration bonuses" that use the empirical variance of the estimated values at the next states (to improve scaling in @math ). We propose a novel transition-based algorithm that straightforwardly parses sentences from left to right by building @math attachments, with @math being the length of the input sentence. Similarly to the recent stack-pointer parser by (2018), we use the pointer network framework that, given a word, can directly point to a position from the sentence. However, our left-to-right approach is simpler than the original top-down stack-pointer parser (not requiring a stack) and reduces transition sequence length in half, from 2 @math -1 actions to @math . This results in a quadratic non-projective parser that runs twice as fast as the original while achieving the best accuracy to date on the English PTB dataset (96.04 UAS, 94.43 LAS) among fully-supervised single-model dependency parsers, and improves over the former top-down transition system in the majority of languages tested. This paper studies the problem of detecting the presence of a small dense community planted in a large Erd o s-R 'enyi random graph @math , where the edge probability within the community exceeds @math by a constant factor. Assuming the hardness of the planted clique detection problem, we show that the computational complexity of detecting the community exhibits the following phase transition phenomenon: As the graph size @math grows and the graph becomes sparser according to @math , there exists a critical value of @math , below which there exists a computationally intensive procedure that can detect far smaller communities than any computationally efficient procedure, and above which a linear-time procedure is statistically optimal. The results also lead to the average-case hardness results for recovering the dense community and approximating the densest @math -subgraph. Denote by an @math -component a connected @math -uniform hypergraph with @math edges and @math vertices. We prove that the expected number of creations of @math -component during a random hypergraph process tends to 1 as @math and @math tend to @math with the total number of vertices @math such that @math . Under the same conditions, we also show that the expected number of vertices that ever belong to an @math -component is approximately @math . As an immediate consequence, it follows that with high probability the largest @math -component during the process is of size @math . Our results give insight about the size of giant components inside the phase transition of random hypergraphs. We consider economical representations for the path information in a directed graph. A directed graph @math is said to be a transitive reduction of the directed graph G provided that (i) @math has a directed path from vertex u to vertex v if and only if G has a directed path from vertex u to vertex v, and (ii) there is no graph with fewer arcs than @math satisfying condition (i). Though directed graphs with cycles may have more than one such representation, we select a natural canonical representative as the transitive reduction for such graphs. It is shown that the time complexity of the best algorithm for finding the transitive reduction of a graph is the same as the time to compute the transitive closure of a graph or to perform Boolean matrix multiplication. Over the past decade, physicists have developed deep but non-rigorous techniques for studying phase transitions in discrete structures. Recently, their ideas have been harnessed to obtain improved rigorous results on the phase transitions in binary problems such as random @math -SAT or @math -NAESAT (e.g., Coja-Oghlan and Panagiotou: STOC 2013). However, these rigorous arguments, typically centered around the second moment method, do not extend easily to problems where there are more than two possible values per variable. The single most intensely studied example of such a problem is random graph @math -coloring. Here we develop a novel approach to the second moment method in this problem. This new method, inspired by physics conjectures on the geometry of the set of @math -colorings, allows us to establish a substantially improved lower bound on the @math -colorability threshold. The new lower bound is within an additive @math of a simple first-moment upper bound and within @math of the physics conjecture. By comparison, the best previous lower bound left a gap of about @math , unbounded in terms of the number of colors [Achlioptas, Naor: STOC 2004]. Despite the recent success of neural networks in image feature learning, a major problem in the video domain is the lack of sufficient labeled data for learning to model temporal information. In this paper, we propose an unsupervised temporal modeling method that learns from untrimmed videos. The speed of motion varies constantly, e.g., a man may run quickly or slowly. We therefore train a Multirate Visual Recurrent Model (MVRM) by encoding frames of a clip with different intervals. This learning process makes the learned model more capable of dealing with motion speed variance. Given a clip sampled from a video, we use its past and future neighboring clips as the temporal context, and reconstruct the two temporal transitions, i.e., present @math past transition and present @math future transition, reflecting the temporal information in different views. The proposed method exploits the two transitions simultaneously by incorporating a bidirectional reconstruction which consists of a backward reconstruction and a forward reconstruction. We apply the proposed method to two challenging video tasks, i.e., complex event detection and video captioning, in which it achieves state-of-the-art performance. Notably, our method generates the best single feature for event detection with a relative improvement of 10.4 on the MEDTest-13 dataset and achieves the best performance in video captioning across all evaluation metrics on the YouTube2Text dataset. Let @math denote a set of polynomials with complex coefficients. Let @math denote any set of sample points . For any @math , the discrete polynomial transform of @math (with respect to @math and @math ) is defined as the collection of sums, @math , where @math for some associated weight function @math . These sorts of transforms find important applications in areas such as medical imaging and signal processing. In this paper, we present fast algorithms for computing discrete orthogonal polynomial transforms. For a system of @math orthogonal polynomials of degree at most @math , we give an @math algorithm for computing a discrete polynomial transform at an arbitrary set of points instead of the @math operations required by direct evaluation. Our algorithm depends only on the fact that orthogonal polynomial sets satisfy a three-term recurrence and thus it may be applied to any such set of discretely sampled functions. In particular, sampled orthogonal polynomials generate the vector space of functions on a distance transitive graph. As a direct application of our work, we are able to give a fast algorithm for computing subspace decompositions of this vector space which respect the action of the symmetry group of such a graph. This has direct applications to treating computational bottlenecks in the spectral analysis of data on distance transitive graphs, and we discuss this in some detail. Consider a Markov decision process (MDP) that admits a set of state-action features, which can linearly express the process's probabilistic transition model. We propose a parametric Q-learning algorithm that finds an approximate-optimal policy using a sample size proportional to the feature dimension @math and invariant with respect to the size of the state space. To further improve its sample efficiency, we exploit the monotonicity property and intrinsic noise structure of the Bellman operator, provided the existence of anchor state-actions that imply implicit non-negativity in the feature space. We augment the algorithm using techniques of variance reduction, monotonicity preservation, and confidence bounds. It is proved to find a policy which is @math -optimal from any initial state with high probability using @math sample transitions for arbitrarily large-scale MDP with a discount factor @math . A matching information-theoretical lower bound is proved, confirming the sample optimality of the proposed method with respect to all parameters (up to polylog factors). For a positive number @math the Mallows measure on the symmetric group is the probability measure on @math such that @math is proportional to @math -to-the-power- @math where @math equals the number of inversions: @math equals the number of pairs @math . One may consider this as a mean-field model from statistical mechanics. The weak large deviation principle may replace the Gibbs variational principle for characterizing equilibrium measures. In this sense, we prove absence of phase transition, i.e., phase uniqueness. The advent of deep learning is a breakthrough in artificial intelligence, for which a theoretical understanding is lacking. Supervised deep learning involves the training of neural networks with a large number @math of parameters. For large enough @math , in the so-called over-parametrized regime, one can essentially fit the training data points. Sparsity-based arguments would suggest that the generalization error increases as @math grows past a certain threshold @math . Instead, empirical studies have shown that in the over-parametrized regime, generalization error keeps decreasing with @math . We resolve this paradox, through a new framework. We rely on the so-called Neural Tangent Kernel, which connects large neural nets to kernel methods, to show that the initialization causes finite-size random fluctuations @math of the neural net output function @math around its expectation @math . These affect the generalization error @math for classification: under natural assumptions, it decays to a plateau value @math in a power-law fashion @math . This description breaks down at a so-called jamming transition @math . At this threshold, we argue that @math diverges. This result leads to a plausible explanation for the cusp in test error known to occur at @math . Our results are confirmed by extensive empirical observations on the MNIST and CIFAR image datasets. Our analysis finally suggests that, given a computational envelope, it is best to use several nets of intermediate sizes, just beyond @math , and to average their outputs. We consider bootstrap percolation on uncorrelated complex networks. We obtain the phase diagram for this process with respect to two parameters: @math , the fraction of vertices initially activated, and @math , the fraction of undamaged vertices in the graph. We observe two transitions: the giant active component appears continuously at a first threshold. There may also be a second, discontinuous, hybrid transition at a higher threshold. Avalanches of activations increase in size as this second critical point is approached, finally diverging at this threshold. We describe the existence of a special critical point at which this second transition first appears. In networks with degree distributions whose second moment diverges (but whose first moment does not), we find a qualitatively different behavior. In this case the giant active component appears for any @math and @math , and the discontinuous transition is absent. This means that the giant active component is robust to damage, and also is very easily activated. We also formulate a generalized bootstrap process in which each vertex can have an arbitrary threshold. We study simple interacting particle systems on heterogeneous networks, including the voter model and the invasion process. These are both two-state models in which in an update event an individual changes state to agree with a neighbor. For the voter model, an individual imports'' its state from a randomly chosen neighbor. Here the average time @math to reach consensus for a network of @math nodes with an uncorrelated degree distribution scales as @math , where @math is the @math moment of the degree distribution. Quick consensus thus arises on networks with broad degree distributions. We also identify the conservation law that characterizes the route by which consensus is reached. Parallel results are derived for the invasion process, in which the state of an agent is exported'' to a random neighbor. We further generalize to biased dynamics in which one state is favored. The probability for a single fitter mutant located at a node of degree @math to overspread the population the fixation probability is proportional to @math for the voter model and to @math for the invasion process. In the framework of Wegman and Carter, a @math -independent hash function maps any @math keys independently. It is known that 5-independent hashing provides good expected performance in applications such as linear probing and second moment estimation for data streams. The classic @math -independent hash function evaluates a degree 4 polynomial over a prime field containing the key domain @math . Here we present an efficient 5-independent hash function that uses no multiplications. Instead, for any parameter @math , we make @math lookups in tables of size @math . In experiments on different computers, our scheme gained factors of 1.8 to 10 in speed over the polynomial method. We also conducted experiments on the performance of hash functions inside the above applications. In particular, we give realistic examples of inputs that make the most popular 2-independent hash function perform quite poorly. This illustrates the advantage of using schemes with provably good expected performance for all inputs. Deterministic finite automata DFA have long served as a fundamental computational model in the study of theoretical computer science, and the problem of learning a DFA from given input data is a classic topic in computational learning theory. In this paper we study the learnability of a random DFA and propose a computationally efficient algorithm for learning and recovering a random DFA from uniform input strings and state information in the statistical query model. A random DFA is uniformly generated: for each state-symbol pair @math , we choose a state @math with replacement uniformly and independently at random and let @math , where Q is the state space, @math is the alphabet and @math is the transition function. The given data are string-state pairs x,i¾?q where x is a string drawn uniformly at random and q is the state of the DFA reached on input x starting from the start state @math . A theoretical guarantee on the maximum absolute error of the algorithm in the statistical query model is presented. Extensive experiments demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the algorithm. Given a discrete random walk on a finite graph @math , the vacant set and vacant net are, respectively, the sets of vertices and edges which remain unvisited by the walk at a given step @math . These sets induce subgraphs of the underlying graph. Let @math be the subgraph of @math induced by the vacant set of the walk at step @math . Similarly, let @math be the subgraph of @math induced by the edges of the vacant net. For random @math -regular graphs @math , it was previously established that for a simple random walk, the graph @math of the vacant set undergoes a phase transition in the sense of the phase transition on Erd os -Renyi graphs @math . Thus, for @math there is an explicit value @math of the walk, such that for @math , @math has a unique giant component, plus components of size @math , whereas for @math all the components of @math are of size @math . We establish the threshold value @math for a phase transition in the graph @math of the vacant net of a simple random walk on a random @math -regular graph. We obtain the corresponding threshold results for the vacant set and vacant net of two modified random walks. These are a non-backtracking random walk, and, for @math even, a random walk which chooses unvisited edges whenever available. This allows a direct comparison of thresholds between simple and modified walks on random @math -regular graphs. The main findings are the following: As @math increases the threshold for the vacant set converges to @math in all three walks. For the vacant net, the threshold converges to @math for both the simple random walk and non-backtracking random walk. When @math is even, the threshold for the vacant net of the unvisited edge process converges to @math , which is also the vertex cover time of the process. Oliveira conjectured that the order of the mixing time of the exclusion process with @math -particles on an arbitrary @math -vertex graph is at most that of the mixing-time of @math independent particles. We verify this up to a constant factor for @math -regular graphs when each edge rings at rate @math in various cases: (1) when @math or (2) when @math the spectral-gap of a single walk is @math and @math or (3) when @math for some constant @math . In these cases our analysis yields a probabilistic proof of a weaker version of Aldous' famous spectral-gap conjecture (resolved by ). We also prove a general bound which is at worst @math , which is within a @math factor from Oliveira's conjecture when @math . As applications we get new mixing bounds: (a) @math for expanders, (b) order @math for the hypercube @math and (c) order @math for vertex-transitive graphs of moderate growth and for supercritical percolation on a fixed dimensional torus. Deep learning has been immensely successful at a variety of tasks, ranging from classification to AI. Learning corresponds to fitting training data, which is implemented by descending a very high-dimensional loss function. Understanding under which conditions neural networks do not get stuck in poor minima of the loss, and how the landscape of that loss evolves as depth is increased remains a challenge. Here we predict, and test empirically, an analogy between this landscape and the energy landscape of repulsive ellipses. We argue that in FC networks a phase transition delimits the over- and under-parametrized regimes where fitting can or cannot be achieved. In the vicinity of this transition, properties of the curvature of the minima of the loss are critical. This transition shares direct similarities with the jamming transition by which particles form a disordered solid as the density is increased, which also occurs in certain classes of computational optimization and learning problems such as the perceptron. Our analysis gives a simple explanation as to why poor minima of the loss cannot be encountered in the overparametrized regime, and puts forward the surprising result that the ability of fully connected networks to fit random data is independent of their depth. Our observations suggests that this independence also holds for real data. We also study a quantity @math which characterizes how well ( @math ) a datum is learned. At the critical point it is power-law distributed, @math for @math and @math for @math , with @math and @math . This observation suggests that near the transition the loss landscape has a hierarchical structure and that the learning dynamics is prone to avalanche-like dynamics, with abrupt changes in the set of patterns that are learned.