Mobile Context-Aware Recommender Systems can be naturally modelled as an exploration exploitation trade-off (exr exp) problem, where the system has to choose between maximizing its expected rewards dealing with its current knowledge (exploitation) and learning more about the unknown user's preferences to improve its knowledge (exploration). This problem has been addressed by the reinforcement learning community but they do not consider the risk level of the current user's situation, where it may be dangerous to recommend items the user may not desire in her current situation if the risk level is high. We introduce in this paper an algorithm named R-UCB that considers the risk level of the user's situation to adaptively balance between exr and exp. The detailed analysis of the experimental results reveals several important discoveries in the exr exp behaviour.
A recent work, @cite_5 , treated the risk and proposed the VDBE algorithm to extend @math -greedy by introducing a state-dependent exploration probability, instead of hand-tuning a global parameter. The system makes exploration in situations when the knowledge about the environment is uncertain, which is indicated by fluctuating action values during learning. In contrast, the amount of exploration is reduced as far as the system's knowledge becomes certain, which is indicated by very small or no value differences.
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Abstract With regard to future service robots, unsafe exceptional circumstances can occur in complex systems that are hardly to foresee. In this paper, the assumption of having no knowledge about the environment is investigated using reinforcement learning as an option for learning behavior by trial-and-error. In such a scenario, action-selection decisions are made based on future reward predictions for minimizing costs in reaching a goal. It is shown that the selection of safety-critical actions leading to highly negative costs from the environment is directly related to the exploration exploitation dilemma in temporal-difference learning. For this, several exploration policies are investigated with regard to worst- and best-case performance in a dynamic environment. Our results show that in contrast to established exploration policies like e-Greedy and Softmax, the recently proposed VDBE-Softmax policy seems to be more appropriate for such applications due to its robustness of the exploration parameter for unexpected situations. We introduce a new count-based optimistic exploration algorithm for Reinforcement Learning (RL) that is feasible in environments with high-dimensional state-action spaces. The success of RL algorithms in these domains depends crucially on generalisation from limited training experience. Function approximation techniques enable RL agents to generalise in order to estimate the value of unvisited states, but at present few methods enable generalisation regarding uncertainty. This has prevented the combination of scalable RL algorithms with efficient exploration strategies that drive the agent to reduce its uncertainty. We present a new method for computing a generalised state visit-count, which allows the agent to estimate the uncertainty associated with any state. Our -pseudocount achieves generalisation by exploiting same feature representation of the state space that is used for value function approximation. States that have less frequently observed features are deemed more uncertain. The -Exploration-Bonus algorithm rewards the agent for exploring in feature space rather than in the untransformed state space. The method is simpler and less computationally expensive than some previous proposals, and achieves near state-of-the-art results on high-dimensional RL benchmarks. In sequential decision problems in an unknown environment, the decision maker often faces a dilemma over whether to explore to discover more about the environment, or to exploit current knowledge. We address the exploration-exploitation dilemma in a general setting encompassing both standard and contextualised bandit problems. The contextual bandit problem has recently resurfaced in attempts to maximise click-through rates in web based applications, a task with significant commercial interest. In this article we consider an approach of Thompson (1933) which makes use of samples from the posterior distributions for the instantaneous value of each action. We extend the approach by introducing a new algorithm, Optimistic Bayesian Sampling (OBS), in which the probability of playing an action increases with the uncertainty in the estimate of the action value. This results in better directed exploratory behaviour. We prove that, under unrestrictive assumptions, both approaches result in optimal behaviour with respect to the average reward criterion of Yang and Zhu (2002). We implement OBS and measure its performance in simulated Bernoulli bandit and linear regression domains, and also when tested with the task of personalised news article recommendation on a Yahoo! Front Page Today Module data set. We find that OBS performs competitively when compared to recently proposed benchmark algorithms and outperforms Thompson's method throughout. Markov decision processes are an effective tool in modeling decision-making in uncertain dynamic environments. Since the parameters of these models are typically estimated from data, learned from experience, or designed by hand, it is not surprising that the actual performance of a chosen strategy often significantly differs from the designer's initial expectations due to unavoidable model uncertainty. In this paper, we present a percentile criterion that captures the trade-off between optimistic and pessimistic points of view on MDP with parameter uncertainty. We describe tractable methods that take parameter uncertainty into account in the process of decision making. Finally, we propose a cost-effective exploration strategy when it is possible to invest (money, time or computation efforts) in actions that will reduce the uncertainty in the parameters. Temporally extended actions (e.g., macro actions) have proven very useful for speeding up learning, ensuring robustness and building prior knowledge into AI systems. The options framework (Precup, 2000; Sutton, Precup & Singh, 1999) provides a natural way of incorporating such actions into reinforcement learning systems, but leaves open the issue of howgood options might be identified. In this paper, we empirically explore a simple approach to creating options. The underlying assumption is that the agent will be asked to perform different goalachievement tasks in an environment that is otherwise the same over time. Our approach is based on the intuition that states that are frequently visited on system trajectories, could prove to be useful subgoals (e.g., McGovern & Barto, 2001; Iba, 1989).We propose a greedy algorithm for identifying subgoals based on state visitation counts. We present empirical studies of this approach in two gridworld navigation tasks. One of the environments we explored contains bottleneck states, and the algorithm indeed finds these states, as expected. The second environment is an empty gridworld with no obstacles. Although the environment does not contain any obvious subgoals, our approach still finds useful options, which essentially allow the agent to explore the environment more quickly. When rewards are sparse and action spaces large, Q-learning with @math -greedy exploration can be inefficient. This poses problems for otherwise promising applications such as task-oriented dialogue systems, where the primary reward signal, indicating successful completion of a task, requires a complex sequence of appropriate actions. Under these circumstances, a randomly exploring agent might never stumble upon a successful outcome in reasonable time. We present two techniques that significantly improve the efficiency of exploration for deep Q-learning agents in dialogue systems. First, we introduce an exploration technique based on Thompson sampling, drawing Monte Carlo samples from a Bayes-by-backprop neural network, demonstrating marked improvement over common approaches such as @math -greedy and Boltzmann exploration. Second, we show that spiking the replay buffer with experiences from a small number of successful episodes, as are easy to harvest for dialogue tasks, can make Q-learning feasible when it might otherwise fail. Model-free reinforcement learning algorithms, such as Q-learning, perform poorly in the early stages of learning in noisy environments, because much effort is spent unlearning biased estimates of the state-action value function. The bias results from selecting, among several noisy estimates, the apparent optimum, which may actually be suboptimal. We propose G-learning, a new off-policy learning algorithm that regularizes the value estimates by penalizing deterministic policies in the beginning of the learning process. We show that this method reduces the bias of the value-function estimation, leading to faster convergence to the optimal value and the optimal policy. Moreover, G-learning enables the natural incorporation of prior domain knowledge, when available. The stochastic nature of G-learning also makes it avoid some exploration costs, a property usually attributed only to on-policy algorithms. We illustrate these ideas in several examples, where G-learning results in significant improvements of the convergence rate and the cost of the learning process. Passively accepting measurements of the world is not enough, as the data we obtain is always incomplete, and the inferences made from it uncertain to a degree which is often unacceptable. If we are to build machines that operate autonomously, they will always be faced with this dilemma, and can only be successful if they play a much more active role. This paper presents such a machine. It deliberately seeks out those parts of the world which maximize the fidelity of its internal representations, and keeps searching until those representations are acceptable. We call this paradigm autonomous exploration, and the machine an autonomous explorer. This paper has two major contributions. The first is a theory that tells us how to explore, and which confirms the intuitive ideas we have put forward previously. The second is an implementation of that theory. In our laboratory, we have constructed a working autonomous explorer and here, for the first time, show it in action. The system is entirely bottom-up and does not depend on any a priori knowledge of the environment. To our knowledge, it is the first to have successfully closed the loop between gaze planning and the inference of complex 3D models. This article investigates the prerequisites for a global exploration strategy in an unknown environment on a virtual disaster site. Assume that a robot equipped with a laser range scanner can build a detailed map of a previous unknown environment. The remaining question is how to use this information on this map for further exploration. On a map several interesting locations can be present where the exploration can be continued, referred as exploration frontiers. Typically, a greedy algorithm is used for the decision which frontier to explore next. Such a greedy algorithm only considers interesting locations locally, focused to reduce the movement costs. More sophisticated algorithms also take into account the information that can be gained along each frontier. This shifts the problem to estimate the amount of unexplored area behind the frontiers on the global map. Our algorithm exploits the long range of current laser scanners. Typically, during the previous exploration a small number of laser rays already passed the frontier, but this number is too low to have major impact on the generated map. Yet, the few rays through a frontier can be used to estimate the potential information gain from unexplored area beyond the frontier. Many practitioners of reinforcement learning problems have observed that oftentimes the performance of the agent reaches very close to the optimal performance even though the estimated (action-)value function is still far from the optimal one. The goal of this paper is to explain and formalize this phenomenon by introducing the concept of the action-gap regularity. As a typical result, we prove that for an agent following the greedy policy ( ) with respect to an action-value function @math , the performance loss @math is upper bounded by @math , in which ζ ≥ = 0) is the parameter quantifying the action-gap regularity. For ζ > 0, our results indicate smaller performance loss compared to what previous analyses had suggested. Finally, we show how this regularity affects the performance of the family of approximate value iteration algorithms. Efficient exploration in complex environments remains a major challenge for reinforcement learning. We propose bootstrapped DQN, a simple algorithm that explores in a computationally and statistically efficient manner through use of randomized value functions. Unlike dithering strategies such as epsilon-greedy exploration, bootstrapped DQN carries out temporally-extended (or deep) exploration; this can lead to exponentially faster learning. We demonstrate these benefits in complex stochastic MDPs and in the large-scale Arcade Learning Environment. Bootstrapped DQN substantially improves learning times and performance across most Atari games. We study the problem of approximating the commuting-operator value of a two-player non-local game. It is well-known that it is @math -complete to decide whether the classical value of a non-local game is 1 or @math . Furthermore, as long as @math is small enough, this result does not depend on the gap @math . In contrast, a recent result of Fitzsimons, Ji, Vidick, and Yuen shows that the complexity of computing the quantum value grows without bound as the gap @math decreases. In this paper, we show that this also holds for the commuting-operator value of a game. Specifically, in the language of multi-prover interactive proofs, we show that the power of @math (proofs with two provers, one round, completeness probability @math , soundness probability @math , and commuting-operator strategies) can increase without bound as the gap @math gets arbitrarily small. Our results also extend naturally in two ways, to perfect zero-knowledge protocols, and to lower bounds on the complexity of computing the approximately-commuting value of a game. Thus we get lower bounds on the complexity class @math - @math of perfect zero-knowledge multi-prover proofs with approximately-commuting operator strategies, as the gap @math gets arbitrarily small. While we do not know any computable time upper bound on the class @math , a result of the first author and Vidick shows that for @math and @math , the class @math , with constant communication from the provers, is contained in @math . We give a lower bound of @math (ignoring constants inside the function) for this class, which is tight up to polynomial factors assuming the exponential time hypothesis. We consider the problem of provably optimal exploration in reinforcement learning for finite horizon MDPs. We show that an optimistic modification to value iteration achieves a regret bound of @math where @math is the time horizon, @math the number of states, @math the number of actions and @math the number of time-steps. This result improves over the best previous known bound @math achieved by the UCRL2 algorithm of , 2010. The key significance of our new results is that when @math and @math , it leads to a regret of @math that matches the established lower bound of @math up to a logarithmic factor. Our analysis contains two key insights. We use careful application of concentration inequalities to the optimal value function as a whole, rather than to the transitions probabilities (to improve scaling in @math ), and we define Bernstein-based "exploration bonuses" that use the empirical variance of the estimated values at the next states (to improve scaling in @math ). Efficient exploration remains a major challenge for reinforcement learning (RL). Common dithering strategies for exploration, such as '-greedy, do not carry out temporally-extended (or deep) exploration; this can lead to exponentially larger data requirements. However, most algorithms for statistically efficient RL are not computationally tractable in complex environments. Randomized value functions offer a promising approach to efficient exploration with generalization, but existing algorithms are not compatible with nonlinearly parameterized value functions. As a first step towards addressing such contexts we develop bootstrapped DQN. We demonstrate that bootstrapped DQN can combine deep exploration with deep neural networks for exponentially faster learning than any dithering strategy. In the Arcade Learning Environment bootstrapped DQN substantially improves learning speed and cumulative performance across most games. Self-learning approaches, such as reinforcement learning, offer new possibilities for autonomous control of uncertain or time-varying systems. However, exploring an unknown environment under limited prediction capabilities is a challenge for a learning agent. If the environment is dangerous, free exploration can result in physical damage or in an otherwise unacceptable behavior. With respect to existing methods, the main contribution of this paper is the definition of a new approach that does not require global safety functions, nor specific formulations of the dynamics or of the environment, but relies on interval estimation of the dynamics of the agent during the exploration phase, assuming a limited capability of the agent to perceive the presence of incoming fatal states. Two algorithms are presented with this approach. The first is the Safety Handling Exploration with Risk Perception Algorithm (SHERPA), which provides safety by individuating temporary safety functions, called backups. SHERPA is shown in a simulated, simplified quadrotor task, for which dangerous states are avoided. The second algorithm, denominated OptiSHERPA, can safely handle more dynamically complex systems for which SHERPA is not sufficient through the use of safety metrics. An application of OptiSHERPA is simulated on an aircraft altitude control task. We consider online learning problems under a a partial observability model capturing situations where the information conveyed to the learner is between full information and bandit feedback. In the simplest variant, we assume that in addition to its own loss, the learner also gets to observe losses of some other actions. The revealed losses depend on the learner's action and a directed observation system chosen by the environment. For this setting, we propose the first algorithm that enjoys near-optimal regret guarantees without having to know the observation system before selecting its actions. Along similar lines, we also define a new partial information setting that models online combinatorial optimization problems where the feedback received by the learner is between semi-bandit and full feedback. As the predictions of our first algorithm cannot be always computed efficiently in this setting, we propose another algorithm with similar properties and with the benefit of always being computationally efficient, at the price of a slightly more complicated tuning mechanism. Both algorithms rely on a novel exploration strategy called implicit exploration, which is shown to be more efficient both computationally and information-theoretically than previously studied exploration strategies for the problem. We show how a standard tool from statistics --- namely confidence bounds --- can be used to elegantly deal with situations which exhibit an exploitation-exploration trade-off. Our technique for designing and analyzing algorithms for such situations is general and can be applied when an algorithm has to make exploitation-versus-exploration decisions based on uncertain information provided by a random process. We apply our technique to two models with such an exploitation-exploration trade-off. For the adversarial bandit problem with shifting our new algorithm suffers only O((ST)1 2) regret with high probability over T trials with S shifts. Such a regret bound was previously known only in expectation. The second model we consider is associative reinforcement learning with linear value functions. For this model our technique improves the regret from O(T3 4) to O(T1 2). The production of behavioral diversity---producing a diversity of effects---is an essential strategy for robots exploring the world when facing situations where interaction possibilities are unknown or non-obvious. It allows to discover new aspects of the environment that cannot be inferred or deduced from available knowledge. However, creating behavioral diversity in situations where it is the most crucial---new and unknown ones---is far from trivial. In particular in large and redundant sensorimotor spaces, only small areas are interesting to explore for any practical purpose. When the environment does not provide clues or gradient toward those areas, trying to discover those areas relies on chance. To address this problem, we introduce a method to create behavioral diversity in a new sensorimotor task by re-enacting actions that allowed to produce behavioral diversity in a previous task, along with a measure that quantifies this diversity. We show that our method can learn how to interact with an object by reusing experience from another, that it adapts to instances of morphological changes and of dissimilarity between tasks, and how scaffolding behaviors can emerge by simply switching the attention of the robot to different parts of the environment. Finally, we show that the method can robustly use simulated experiences and crude cognitive models to generate behavioral diversity in real robots. Abstract Cryptographic assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum provide distributed consensus with a Proof-of-Work protocol and incentive-based engineering. The consensus is inherently dependent on the value of the asset due to the incentives. The value of these assets frequently fluctuates, which in turn influences the incentive component of the consensus mechanism. For a proof-of-work consensus to be secure, the participation reward must have a perceived real-world value. The future of this perception is not at all clear. The recent 70 drop in the value of Bitcoin versus the US Dollar may be precipitating a circle of declining security of the platform which we explore in depth in this paper. In this paper, we analyze the impact of fluctuations on the security of Bitcoin now, and in the future. We introduce a novel method to examine the rationale of a miner based on the price fluctuations. We integrate our method with an existing security evaluation framework and simulator. Using our approach, we determine and report on the impact of the value of the cryptographic asset on the security of the blockchain given the miner’s rationale. Our method allows us to evaluate the impact of different methods of incentive manipulation such as reduced block-reward and transaction fees, by simulation. The successful application of Reinforcement Learning (RL) techniques to robot control is limited by the fact that, in most robotic tasks, the state and action spaces are continuous, multidimensional, and in essence, too large for conventional RL algorithms to work. The well known curse of dimensionality makes infeasible using a tabular representation of the value function, which is the classical approach that provides convergence guarantees. When a function approximation technique is used to generalize among similar states, the convergence of the algorithm is compromised, since updates unavoidably affect an extended region of the domain, that is, some situations are modified in a way that has not been really experienced, and the update may degrade the approximation. We propose a RL algorithm that uses a probability density estimation in the joint space of states, actions and Q-values as a means of function approximation. This allows us to devise an updating approach that, taking into account the local sampling density, avoids an excessive modification of the approximation far from the observed sample.