This paper develops a path planner that minimizes risk (e.g. motion execution) while maximizing accumulated reward (e.g., quality of sensor viewpoint) motivated by visual assistance or tracking scenarios in unstructured or confined environments. In these scenarios, the robot should maintain the best viewpoint as it moves to the goal. However, in unstructured or confined environments, some paths may increase the risk of collision; therefore there is a tradeoff between risk and reward. Conventional state-dependent risk or probabilistic uncertainty modeling do not consider path-level risk or is difficult to acquire. This risk-reward planner explicitly represents risk as a function of motion plans, i.e., paths. Without manual assignment of the negative impact to the planner caused by risk, this planner takes in a pre-established viewpoint quality map and plans target location and path leading to it simultaneously, in order to maximize overall reward along the entire path while minimizing risk. Exact and approximate algorithms are presented, whose solution is further demonstrated on a physical tethered aerial vehicle. Other than the visual assistance problem, the proposed framework also provides a new planning paradigm to address minimum-risk planning under dynamical risk and absence of substructure optimality and to balance the trade-off between reward and risk.
Another important branch of risk representation is through implicit probabilistic models in belief space. Risk is trivial given a perfectly known world and action model. It is the model uncertainty that introduces risk into path execution, e.g., not knowing exactly where the robot is may lead to collision with obstacles. Belief Roadmap (BRM) @cite_6 , Rapidly-exploring Random Belief Trees @cite_17 , linear-quadratic controller based on an ensemble of paths @cite_16 , local optimization over Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) @cite_18 , Feedback-based Information Roadmap (FIRM) @cite_4 were used, representing risk as model uncertainty, to plan safe path. Most works were done in simulation with theoretical belief models. However, when planning with real robot in physical environments, a convincing method to quantify the probabilistic model is difficult to acquire.
@cite_18 @cite_4 @cite_6 @cite_16 @cite_17
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In this paper we address the problem of trajectory planning with imperfect state information. In many real-world domains, the position of a mobile agent cannot be known perfectly; instead, the agent maintains a probabilistic belief about its position. Planning in these domains requires computing the best trajectory through the space of possible beliefs. We show that planning in belief space can be done efficiently for linear Gaussian systems by using a factored form of the covariance matrix. This factored form allows several prediction and measurement steps to be combined into a single linear transfer function, leading to very efficient posterior belief prediction during planning. We give a belief-space variant of the Probabilistic Roadmap algorithm called the Belief Roadmap (BRM) and show that the BRM can compute plans substantially faster than conventional belief space planning. We also show performance results for planning a path across MIT campus without perfect localization. We present a new approach to motion planning under sensing and motion uncertainty by computing a locally optimal solution to a continuous partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP). Our approach represents beliefs (the distributions of the robot's state estimate) by Gaussian distributions and is applicable to robot systems with non-linear dynamics and observation models. The method follows the general POMDP solution framework in which we approximate the belief dynamics using an extended Kalman filter and represent the value function by a quadratic function that is valid in the vicinity of a nominal trajectory through belief space. Using a belief space variant of iterative LQG (iLQG), our approach iterates with second-order convergence towards a linear control policy over the belief space that is locally optimal with respect to a user-defined cost function. Unlike previous work, our approach does not assume maximum-likelihood observations, does not assume fixed estimator or control gains, takes into account obstacles in the environment, and does not require discretization of the state and action spaces. The running time of the algorithm is polynomial (O[n6]) in the dimension n of the state space. We demonstrate the potential of our approach in simulation for holonomic and non-holonomic robots maneuvering through environments with obstacles with noisy and partial sensing and with non-linear dynamics and observation models. In this paper we present feedback-based information roadmap (FIRM), a multi-query approach for planning under uncertainty which is a belief-space variant of probabilistic roadmap methods. The crucial feature of FIRM is that the costs associated with the edges are independent of each other, and in this sense it is the first method that generates a graph in belief space that preserves the optimal substructure property. From a practical point of view, FIRM is a robust and reliable planning framework. It is robust since the solution is a feedback and there is no need for expensive replanning. It is reliable because accurate collision probabilities can be computed along the edges. In addition, FIRM is a scalable framework, where the complexity of planning with FIRM is a constant multiplier of the complexity of planning with PRM. In this paper, FIRM is introduced as an abstract framework. As a concrete instantiation of FIRM, we adopt stationary linear quadratic Gaussian (SLQG) controllers as belief stabilizers and introduce the so-called SLQG-FIRM. In SLQG-FIRM we focus on kinematic systems and then extend to dynamical systems by sampling in the equilibrium space. We investigate the performance of SLQG-FIRM in different scenarios. In this paper we present LQG-MP (linear-quadratic Gaussian motion planning), a new approach to robot motion planning that takes into account the sensors and the controller that will be used during the execution of the robotâs path. LQG-MP is based on the linear-quadratic controller with Gaussian models of uncertainty, and explicitly characterizes in advance (i.e. before execution) the a priori probability distributions of the state of the robot along its path. These distributions can be used to assess the quality of the path, for instance by computing the probability of avoiding collisions. Many methods can be used to generate the required ensemble of candidate paths from which the best path is selected; in this paper we report results using rapidly exploring random trees (RRT). We study the performance of LQG-MP with simulation experiments in three scenarios: (A) a kinodynamic car-like robot, (B) multi-robot planning with differential-drive robots, and (C) a 6-DOF serial manipulator. We also present a method that applies Kalman smoothing to make paths Ck-continuous and apply LQG-MP to precomputed roadmaps using a variant of Dijkstraâs algorithm to efficiently find high-quality paths. This paper presents a novel path planning algorithm for autonomous, uncertainty-aware exploration and mapping of unknown environments using aerial robots. The proposed planner follows a two-step, receding horizon, belief space-based approach. At first, in an online computed tree the algorithm finds the branch that optimizes the amount of space expected to be explored. The first viewpoint configuration of this branch is selected, but the path towards it is decided through a second planning step. Within that, a new tree is sampled, admissible branches arriving at the reference viewpoint are found and the robot belief about its state and the tracked landmarks of the environment is propagated. The branch that minimizes the expected localization and mapping uncertainty is selected, the corresponding path is executed by the robot and the whole process is iteratively repeated. The proposed planner is capable of running online onboard a small aerial robot and its performance is evaluated using experimental studies in a challenging environment. RGB-D cameras provide both color images and per-pixel depth estimates. The richness of this data and the recent development of low-cost sensors have combined to present an attractive opportunity for mobile robotics research. In this paper, we describe a system for visual odometry and mapping using an RGB-D camera, and its application to autonomous flight. By leveraging results from recent state-of-the-art algorithms and hardware, our system enables 3D flight in cluttered environments using only onboard sensor data. All computation and sensing required for local position control are performed onboard the vehicle, reducing the dependence on an unreliable wireless link to a ground station. However, even with accurate 3D sensing and position estimation, some parts of the environment have more perceptual structure than others, leading to state estimates that vary in accuracy across the environment. If the vehicle plans a path without regard to how well it can localize itself along that path, it runs the risk of becoming lost or worse. We show how the belief roadmap algorithm prentice2009belief, a belief space extension of the probabilistic roadmap algorithm, can be used to plan vehicle trajectories that incorporate the sensing model of the RGB-D camera. We evaluate the effectiveness of our system for controlling a quadrotor micro air vehicle, demonstrate its use for constructing detailed 3D maps of an indoor environment, and discuss its limitations. In this paper we address the problem of motion planning in the presence of state uncertainty, also known as planning in belief space. The work is motivated by planning domains involving nontrivial dynamics, spatially varying measurement properties, and obstacle constraints. To make the problem tractable, we restrict the motion plan to a nominal trajectory stabilized with a linear estimator and controller. This allows us to predict distributions over future states given a candidate nominal trajectory. Using these distributions to ensure a bounded probability of collision, the algorithm incrementally constructs a graph of trajectories through state space, while efficiently searching over candidate paths through the graph at each iteration. This process results in a search tree in belief space that provably converges to the optimal path. We analyze the algorithm theoretically and also provide simulation results demonstrating its utility for balancing information gathering to reduce uncertainty and finding low cost paths. Probability theory has become the standard framework in the field of mobile robotics because of the inherent uncertainty associated with sensing and acting. In this paper, we show that the theory of belief functions with its ability to distinguish between different types of uncertainty is able to provide significant advantages over probabilistic approaches in the context of robotics. We do so by presenting solutions to the essential problems of simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) and planning based on belief functions. For SLAM, we show how the joint belief function over the map and the robot's poses can be factored and efficiently approximated using a Rao-Blackwellized particle filter, resulting in a generalization of the popular probabilistic FastSLAM algorithm. Our SLAM algorithm produces occupancy grid maps where belief functions explicitly represent additional information about missing and conflicting measurements compared to probabilistic grid maps. The basis for this SLAM algorithm are forward and inverse sensor models, and we present general evidential models for range sensors like sonar and laser scanners. Using the generated evidential grid maps, we show how optimal decisions can be made for path planning and active exploration. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our evidential approach, we apply it to two real-world datasets where a mobile robot has to explore unknown environments and solve different planning problems. Finally, we provide a quantitative evaluation and show that the evidential approach outperforms a probabilistic one both in terms of map quality and navigation performance. A belief-function-based approach to SLAM for mobile robots is presented.Different types of uncertainty are explicitly represented in evidential grid maps.Optimal navigation and exploration based on evidential grid maps is shown.Evidential forward and inverse models for range sensors are provided.The approach is evaluated using real-world datasets recorded by a mobile robot. We introduce a highly efficient method for solving continuous partially-observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) in which beliefs can be modeled using Gaussian distributions over the state space. Our method enables fast solutions to sequential decision making under uncertainty for a variety of problems involving noisy or incomplete observations and stochastic actions. We present an efficient approach to compute locally-valid approximations to the value function over continuous spaces in time polynomial (O[n4]) in the dimension n of the state space. To directly tackle the intractability of solving general POMDPs, we leverage the assumption that beliefs are Gaussian distributions over the state space, approximate the belief update using an extended Kalman filter (EKF), and represent the value function by a function that is quadratic in the mean and linear in the variance of the belief. Our approach iterates towards a linear control policy over the state space that is locally-optimal with respect to a user defined cost function, and is approximately valid in the vicinity of a nominal trajectory through belief space. We demonstrate the scalability and potential of our approach on problems inspired by robot navigation under uncertainty for state spaces of up to 128 dimensions. We introduce a new problem of continuous, coverage-aware trajectory optimization under localization and sensing uncertainty. In this problem, the goal is to plan a path from a start state to a goal state that maximizes the coverage of a user-specified region while minimizing the control costs of the robot and the probability of collision with the environment. We present a principled method for quantifying the coverage sensing uncertainty of the robot. We use this sensing uncertainty along with the uncertainty in robot localization to develop C-OPT, a coverage-optimization algorithm which optimizes trajectories over belief-space to find locally optimal coverage paths. We highlight the applicability of our approach in multiple simulated scenarios inspired by surveillance, UAV crop analysis, and search-and-rescue tasks. We also present a case study on a physical, differential-drive robot. We also provide quantitative and qualitative analysis of the paths generated by our approach. Localization and state estimation are reaching a certain maturity in mobile robotics, often providing both a precise robot pose estimate at a point in time and the corresponding uncertainty. In the bid to increase the robots' autonomy, the community now turns to more advanced tasks, such as navigation and path planning. For a realistic path to be computed, neither the uncertainty of the robot's perception nor the vehicle's dynamics can be ignored. In this work, we propose to specifically exploit the information on uncertainty, while also accounting for the physical laws governing the motion of the vehicle. Making use of rapidly exploring random belief trees, here we evaluate offline multiple path hypotheses in a known map to select a path exhibiting the motion required to estimate the robot's state accurately and, inherently, to avoid motion in modes, where otherwise observable states are not excited. We demonstrate the proposed approach on a micro aerial vehicle performing visual-inertial navigation. Such a system is known to require sufficient excitation to reach full observability. As a result, the proposed methodology plans safe avoidance not only of obstacles, but also areas where localization might fail during real flights compensating for the limitations of the localization methodology available. We show that our planner actively improves the precision of the state estimation by selecting paths that minimize the uncertainty in the estimated states. Furthermore, our experiments illustrate by comparison that a naive planner would fail to reach the goal within bounded uncertainty in most cases. Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) provide a principled, general framework for robot motion planning in uncertain and dynamic environments. They have been applied to various robotic tasks. However, solving POMDPs exactly is computationally intractable. A major challenge is to scale up POMDP algorithms for complex robotic tasks. Robotic systems often have mixed observability : even when a robotâs state is not fully observable, some components of the state may still be so. We use a factored model to represent separately the fully and partially observable components of a robotâs state and derive a compact lower-dimensional representation of its belief space. This factored representation can be combined with any point-based algorithm to compute approximate POMDP solutions. Experimental results show that on standard test problems, our approach improves the performance of a leading point-based POMDP algorithm by many times. In this paper, we present an approach for robustly grasping objects under positional uncertainty. We maintain a belief state (a probability distribution over world states), model the problem as a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP), and select actions with a receding horizon using forward search through the belief space. Our actions are world-relative trajectories, or fixed trajectories expressed relative to the most-likely state of the world. We localize the object, ensure its reachability, and robustly grasp it at a goal position by using information-gathering, reorientation, and goal actions. We choose among candidate actions in a tractable way online by computing and storing the observation models needed for belief update offline. This framework is used to successfully grasp objects (including a powerdrill and a Brita pitcher) despite significant uncertainty, both in simulation and with an actual robot arm. Standard value function approaches to finding policies for Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) are generally considered to be intractable for large models. The intractability of these algorithms is to a large extent a consequence of computing an exact, optimal policy over the entire belief space. However, in real-world POMDP problems, computing the optimal policy for the full belief space is often unnecessary for good control even for problems with complicated policy classes. The beliefs experienced by the controller often lie near a structured, low-dimensional subspace embedded in the high-dimensional belief space. Finding a good approximation to the optimal value function for only this subspace can be much easier than computing the full value function. We introduce a new method for solving large-scale POMDPs by reducing the dimensionality of the belief space. We use Exponential family Principal Components Analysis (Collins, Dasgupta, & Schapire, 2002) to represent sparse, high-dimensional belief spaces using small sets of learned features of the belief state. We then plan only in terms of the low-dimensional belief features. By planning in this low-dimensional space, we can find policies for POMDP models that are orders of magnitude larger than models that can be handled by conventional techniques. We demonstrate the use of this algorithm on a synthetic problem and on mobile robot navigation tasks. Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) have been successfully applied to various robot motion planning tasks under uncertainty. However, most existing POMDP algorithms assume a discrete state space, while the natural state space of a robot is often continuous. This paper presents Monte Carlo Value Iteration (MCVI) for continuous-state POMDPs. MCVI samples both a robot’s state space and the corresponding belief space, and avoids inefficient a priori discretization of the state space as a grid. Both theoretical results and preliminary experimental results indicate that MCVI is a promising new approach for robot motion planning under uncertainty. We investigate the problem of planning under uncertainty, with application to mobile robotics. We propose a probabilistic framework in which the robot bases its decisions on the generalized belief, which is a probabilistic description of its own state and of external variables of interest. The approach naturally leads to a dual-layer architecture: an inner estimation layer, which performs inference to predict the outcome of possible decisions; and an outer decisional layer which is in charge of deciding the best action to undertake. Decision making is entrusted to a model predictive control MPC scheme. The formulation is valid for general cost functions and does not discretize the state or control space, enabling planning in continuous domain. Moreover, it allows to relax the assumption of maximum likelihood observations: predicted measurements are treated as random variables, and binary random variables are used to model the event that a measurement is actually taken by the robot. We successfully apply our approach to the problem of uncertainty-constrained exploration, in which the robot has to perform tasks in an unknown environment, while maintaining localization uncertainty within given bounds. We present an extensive numerical analysis of the proposed approach and compare it against related work. In practice, our planning approach produces smooth and natural trajectories and is able to impose soft upper bounds on the uncertainty. Finally, we exploit the results of this analysis to identify current limitations and show that the proposed framework can accommodate several desirable extensions. between planner conservatism and the risk of infeasibility. This paper presents a novel real-time planning algorithm, chance constrained rapidly-exploring random trees (CC-RRT), which uses chance constraints to guarantee probabilistic feasibility for linear systems subject to process noise and or uncertain, possibly dynamic obstacles. By using RRT, the algorithm enjoys the computational benets of sampling-based algorithms, such as trajectory-wise constraint checking and incorporation of heuristics, while explicitly incorporating uncertainty within the formulation. Under the assumption of Gaussian noise, probabilistic feasibility at each time step can be established through simple simulation of the state conditional mean and the evaluation of linear constraints. Alternatively, a small amount of additional computation can be used to explicitly compute a less conservative probability bound at each time step. Simulation results show that this algorithm can be used for ecient identication and execution of probabilistically safe paths in real time. A key challenge to widespread deployment of mobile robots in the real-world is the ability to robustly and autonomously sense the environment and collaborate with teammates. Real-world domains are characterized by partial observability, non-deterministic action outcomes and unforeseen changes, making autonomous sensing and collaboration a formidable challenge. This paper poses vision-based sensing, information processing and collaboration as an instance of probabilistic planning using partially observable Markov decision processes. Reliable, efficient and autonomous operation is achieved using a hierarchical decomposition that includes: (a) convolutional policies to exploit the local symmetry of high-level visual search; (b) adaptive observation functions, policy re-weighting, automatic belief propagation and online updates of the domain map for autonomous adaptation to domain changes; and (c) a probabilistic strategy for a team of robots to robustly share beliefs. All algorithms are evaluated in simulation and on physical robots localizing target objects in dynamic indoor domains. In order to be fully robust and responsive to a dynamically changing real-world environment, intelligent robots will need to engage in a variety of simultaneous reasoning modalities. In particular, in this paper we consider their needs to i) reason with commonsense knowledge, ii) model their nondeter-ministic action outcomes and partial observability, and iii) plan toward maximizing long-term rewards. On one hand, Answer Set Programming (ASP) is good at representing and reasoning with commonsense and default knowledge, but is ill-equipped to plan under probabilistic uncertainty. On the other hand, Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs) are strong at planning under uncertainty toward maximizing long-term rewards, but are not designed to incorporate commonsense knowledge and inference. This paper introduces the CORPP algorithm which combines P-log, a probabilistic extension of ASP, with POMDPs to integrate commonsense reasoning with planning under uncertainty. Our approach is fully implemented and tested on a shopping request identification problem both in simulation and on a real robot. Compared with existing approaches using P-log or POMDPs individually, we observe significant improvements in both efficiency and accuracy. High correlation in failure of information systems due to worms and viruses has been cited as major impediment to cyber-insurance. However, of the many cyber-risk classes that influence failure of information systems, not all exhibit similar correlation properties. In this paper, we introduce a new classification of correlation properties of cyber-risks based on a twin-tier approach. At the first tier, is the correlation of cyber-risks within a firm i.e. correlated failure of multiple systems on its internal network. At second tier, is the correlation in risk at a global level i.e. correlation across independent firms in an insurer’s portfolio. Various classes of cyber-risks exhibit dierent level of correlation at two tiers, for instance, insider attacks exhibit high internal but low global correlation. While internal risk correlation within a firm influences its decision to seek insurance, the global correlation influences insurers’ decision in setting the premium. Citing real data we study the combined dynamics of the two-step risk arrival process to determine conditions conducive to the existence of cyber-insurance market. We address technical, managerial and policy choices influencing the correlation at both steps and the business implications thereof.