We provide a framework for modeling social network formation through conditional multinomial logit models from discrete choice and random utility theory, in which each new edge is viewed as a “choice” made by a node to connect to another node, based on (generic) features of the other nodes available to make a connection. This perspective on network formation unifies existing models such as preferential attachment, triadic closure, and node fitness, which are all special cases, and thereby provides a flexible means for conceptualizing, estimating, and comparing models. The lens of discrete choice theory also provides several new tools for analyzing social network formation; for example, the significance of node features can be evaluated in a statistically rigorous manner, and mixtures of existing models can be estimated by adapting known expectation-maximization algorithms. We demonstrate the flexibility of our framework through examples that analyze a number of synthetic and real-world datasets. For example, we provide rigorous methods for estimating preferential attachment models and show how to separate the effects of preferential attachment and triadic closure. Non-parametric estimates of the importance of degree show a highly linear trend, and we expose the importance of looking carefully at nodes with degree zero. Examining the formation of a large citation graph, we find evidence for an increased role of degree when accounting for age.
There is also a connection with the literature on link prediction in social networks @cite_9 . A network formation model implicitly makes claims about what edges are most likely to form next, and so can be evaluated by the same metrics as link prediction algorithms @cite_14 . Features like distance, common neighbors and degree have been shown to be predictive of link formation in multiple contexts @cite_9 @cite_29 . However, in that literature, the main focus of interest is usually predictive accuracy, rather than a robust understanding of the drivers of formation. While we use predictive accuracy as a measure of goodness of fit, we are more concerned with interpretability of the model and estimates, which is one of the advantages of the conditional logit model.
@cite_29 @cite_9 @cite_14
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In a document network such as a citation network of scientific documents, web-logs, etc., the content produced by authors exhibits their interest in certain topics. In addition some authors influence other authors' interests. In this work, we propose to model the influence of cited authors along with the interests of citing authors. Moreover, we hypothesize that apart from the citations present in documents, the context surrounding the citation mention provides extra topical information about the cited authors. However, associating terms in the context to the cited authors remains an open problem. We propose novel document generation schemes that incorporate the context while simultaneously modeling the interests of citing authors and influence of the cited authors. Our experiments show significant improvements over baseline models for various evaluation criteria such as link prediction between document and cited author, and quantitatively explaining unseen text. One of the core tasks in social network analysis is to predict the formation of links (i.e. various types of relationships) over time. Previous research has generally represented the social network in the form of a graph and has leveraged topological and semantic measures of similarity between two nodes to evaluate the probability of link formation. Here we introduce a novel local probabilistic graphical model method that can scale to large graphs to estimate the joint co-occurrence probability of two nodes. Such a probability measure captures information that is not captured by either topological measures or measures of semantic similarity, which are the dominant measures used for link prediction. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the co-occurrence probability feature by using it both in isolation and in combination with other topological and semantic features for predicting co-authorship collaborations on real datasets. Online social networks offering various services have become ubiquitous in our daily life. Meanwhile, users nowadays are usually involved in multiple online social networks simultaneously to enjoy specific services provided by different networks. Formally, social networks that share some common users are named as partially aligned networks. In this paper, we want to predict the formation of social links in multiple partially aligned social networks at the same time, which is formally defined as the multi-network link (formation) prediction problem. In multiple partially aligned social networks, users can be extensively correlated with each other by various connections. To categorize these diverse connections among users, 7 "intra-network social meta paths" and 4 categories of "inter-network social meta paths" are proposed in this paper. These "social meta paths" can cover a wide variety of connection information in the network, some of which can be helpful for solving the multi-network link prediction problem but some can be not. To utilize useful connection, a subset of the most informative "social meta paths" are picked, the process of which is formally defined as "social meta path selection" in this paper. An effective general link formation prediction framework, Mli (Multi-network Link Identifier), is proposed in this paper to solve the multi-network link (formation) prediction problem. Built with heterogenous topological features extracted based on the selected "social meta paths" in the multiple partially aligned social networks, Mli can help refine and disambiguate the prediction results reciprocally in all aligned networks. Extensive experiments conducted on real-world partially aligned heterogeneous networks, Foursquare and Twitter, demonstrate that Mli can solve the multi-network link prediction problem very well. Link prediction and recommendation is a fundamental problem in social network analysis. The key challenge of link prediction comes from the sparsity of networks due to the strong disproportion of links that they have potential to form to links that do form. Most previous work tries to solve the problem in single network, few research focus on capturing the general principles of link formation across heterogeneous networks. In this work, we give a formal definition of link recommendation across heterogeneous networks. Then we propose a ranking factor graph model (RFG) for predicting links in social networks, which effectively improves the predictive performance. Motivated by the intuition that people make friends in different networks with similar principles, we find several social patterns that are general across heterogeneous networks. With the general social patterns, we develop a transfer-based RFG model that combines them with network structure information. This model provides us insight into fundamental principles that drive the link formation and network evolution. Finally, we verify the predictive performance of the presented transfer model on 12 pairs of transfer cases. Our experimental results demonstrate that the transfer of general social patterns indeed help the prediction of links. In this work, we address the problem of joint modeling of text and citations in the topic modeling framework. We present two different models called the Pairwise-Link-LDA and the Link-PLSA-LDA models. The Pairwise-Link-LDA model combines the ideas of LDA [4] and Mixed Membership Block Stochastic Models [1] and allows modeling arbitrary link structure. However, the model is computationally expensive, since it involves modeling the presence or absence of a citation (link) between every pair of documents. The second model solves this problem by assuming that the link structure is a bipartite graph. As the name indicates, Link-PLSA-LDA model combines the LDA and PLSA models into a single graphical model. Our experiments on a subset of Citeseer data show that both these models are able to predict unseen data better than the baseline model of Erosheva and Lafferty [8], by capturing the notion of topical similarity between the contents of the cited and citing documents. Our experiments on two different data sets on the link prediction task show that the Link-PLSA-LDA model performs the best on the citation prediction task, while also remaining highly scalable. In addition, we also present some interesting visualizations generated by each of the models. Allan Bloom's cytologic epistemology invites further analysis. A scientific article is like a cell that interacts with its neighbors to form an organ-like cluster—a set of articles or a "literature" addressed to a common set of problems and topics. These articles interact by citing one another—by conversing in print. The clusters themselves can be seen as interacting, to varying degrees, with other clusters. This essay will focus on certain failures of intercluster communication. Online social networking sites like MySpace, Orkut, and Flickr are among the most popular sites on the Web and continue to experience dramatic growth in their user population. The popularity of these sites offers a unique opportunity to study the dynamics of social networks at scale. Having a proper understanding of how online social networks grow can provide insights into the network structure, allow predictions of future growth, and enable simulation of systems on networks of arbitrary size. However, to date, most empirical studies have focused on static network snapshots rather than growth dynamics. In this paper, we collect and examine detailed growth data from the Flickr online social network, focusing on the ways in which new links are formed. Our study makes two contributions. First, we collect detailed data covering three months of growth, encompassing 950,143 new users and over 9.7 million new links, and we make this data available to the research community. Second, we use a first-principles approach to investigate the link formation process. In short, we find that links tend to be created by users who already have many links, that users tend to respond to incoming links by creating links back to the source, and that users link to other users who are already close in the network. User recommender systems are a key component in any on-line social networking platform: they help the users growing their network faster, thus driving engagement and loyalty. In this paper we study link prediction with explanations for user recommendation in social networks. For this problem we propose WTFW ("Who to Follow and Why"), a stochastic topic model for link prediction over directed and nodes-attributed graphs. Our model not only predicts links, but for each predicted link it decides whether it is a "topical" or a "social" link, and depending on this decision it produces a different type of explanation. A topical link is recommended between a user interested in a topic and a user authoritative in that topic: the explanation in this case is a set of binary features describing the topic responsible of the link creation. A social link is recommended between users which share a large social neighborhood: in this case the explanation is the set of neighbors which are more likely to be responsible for the link creation. Our experimental assessment on real-world data confirms the accuracy of WTFW in the link prediction and the quality of the associated explanations. The problem of link prediction has been studied extensively in literature. There are various versions of the link prediction problem link existence problem, link removal problem, predicting edge weights over time etc. In this paper we describe a new type of link prediction problem called the Inter-network link-prediction problem where the task is to predict links different networks. Thus given a set of nodes which participate in multiple networks the task is to determine if one can predict the edges that occur in one network by only using node attribute and edge information from other networks. We use insights from theories of evolution of social communication networks and the MTML framework to derive models which can be used to make link predictions across networks. For the experiments data from different of social networks from a Massively Multiplayer Online Role Playing Game (MMORPG) is used. The ability to predict linkages among data objects is central to many data mining tasks, such as product recommendation and social network analysis. Substantial literature has been devoted to the link prediction problem either as an implicitly embedded problem in specific applications or as a generic data mining task. This literature has mostly adopted a static graph representation where a snapshot of the network is analyzed to predict hidden or future links. However, this representation is only appropriate to investigate whether a certain link will ever occur and does not apply to many applications for which the prediction of the repeated link occurrences are of primary interest (e.g., communication network surveillance). In this paper, we introduce the time-series link prediction problem, taking into consideration temporal evolutions of link occurrences to predict link occurrence probabilities at a particular time. Using Enron e-mail data and high-energy particle physics literature coauthorship data, we have demonstrated that time-series models of single-link occurrences achieve comparable link prediction performance with commonly used static graph link prediction algorithms. Furthermore, a combination of static graph link prediction algorithms and time-series models produced significantly better predictions over static graph link prediction methods, demonstrating the great potential of integrated methods that exploit both interlink structural dependencies and intralink temporal dependencies. We propose a simple discrete time semi-supervised graph embedding approach to link prediction in dynamic networks. The learned embedding reflects information from both the temporal and cross-sectional network structures, which is performed by defining the loss function as a weighted sum of the supervised loss from past dynamics and the unsupervised loss of predicting the neighborhood context in the current network. Our model is also capable of learning different embeddings for both formation and dissolution dynamics. These key aspects contributes to the predictive performance of our model and we provide experiments with three real--world dynamic networks showing that our method is comparable to state of the art methods in link formation prediction and outperforms state of the art baseline methods in link dissolution prediction. With over 300 million active users, Twitter is among the largest online news and social networking services in existence today. Open access to information on Twitter makes it a valuable source of data for research on social interactions, sentiment analysis, content diffusion, link prediction, and the dynamics behind human collective behaviour in general. Here we use Twitter data to construct co-occurrence language networks based on hashtags and based on all the words in tweets, and we use these networks to study link prediction by means of different methods and evaluation metrics. In addition to using five known methods, we propose two effective weighted similarity measures, and we compare the obtained outcomes in dependence on the selected semantic context of topics on Twitter. We find that hashtag networks yield to a large degree equal results as all-word networks, thus supporting the claim that hashtags alone robustly capture the semantic context of tweets, and as such are useful and suitable for studying the content and categorization. We also introduce ranking diagrams as an efficient tool for the comparison of the performance of different link prediction algorithms across multiple datasets. Our research indicates that successful link prediction algorithms work well in correctly foretelling highly probable links even if the information about a network structure is incomplete, and they do so even if the semantic context is rationalized to hashtags. Proximity measures quantify the closeness or similarity between nodes in a social network and form the basis of a range of applications in social sciences, business, information technology, computer networks, and cyber security. It is challenging to estimate proximity measures in online social networks due to their massive scale (with millions of users) and dynamic nature (with hundreds of thousands of new nodes and millions of edges added daily). To address this challenge, we develop two novel methods to efficiently and accurately approximate a large family of proximity measures. We also propose a novel incremental update algorithm to enable near real-time proximity estimation in highly dynamic social networks. Evaluation based on a large amount of real data collected in five popular online social networks shows that our methods are accurate and can easily scale to networks with millions of nodes. To demonstrate the practical values of our techniques, we consider a significant application of proximity estimation: link prediction, i.e., predicting which new edges will be added in the near future based on past snapshots of a social network. Our results reveal that (i) the effectiveness of different proximity measures for link prediction varies significantly across different online social networks and depends heavily on the fraction of edges contributed by the highest degree nodes, and (ii) combining multiple proximity measures consistently yields the best link prediction accuracy. Missing link prediction in networks is of both theoretical interest and practical significance in modern science. In this paper, we empirically investigate a simple framework of link prediction on the basis of node similarity. We compare nine well-known local similarity measures on six real networks. The results indicate that the simplest measure, namely Common Neighbours, has the best overall performance, and the Adamic-Adar index performs second best. A new similarity measure, motivated by the resource allocation process taking place on networks, is proposed and shown to have higher prediction accuracy than common neighbours. It is found that many links are assigned the same scores if only the information of the nearest neighbours is used. We therefore design another new measure exploiting information on the next nearest neighbours, which can remarkably enhance the prediction accuracy. How do blogs cite and influence each other? How do such links evolve? Does the popularity of old blog posts drop exponentially with time? These are some of the questions that we address in this work. Our goal is to build a model that generates realistic cascades, so that it can help us with link prediction and outlier detection. Blogs (weblogs) have become an important medium of information because of their timely publication, ease of use, and wide availability. In fact, they often make headlines, by discussing and discovering evidence about political events and facts. Often blogs link to one another, creating a publicly available record of how information and influence spreads through an underlying social network. Aggregating links from several blog posts creates a directed graph which we analyze to discover the patterns of information propagation in blogspace, and thereby understand the underlying social network. Not only are blogs interesting on their own merit, but our analysis also sheds light on how rumors, viruses, and ideas propagate over social and computer networks. Here we report some surprising findings of the blog linking and information propagation structure, after we analyzed one of the largest available datasets, with 45,000 blogs and 2.2 million blog-postings. Our analysis also sheds light on how rumors, viruses, and ideas propagate over social and computer networks. We also present a simple model that mimics the spread of information on the blogosphere, and produces information cascades very similar to those found in real life. In recent years scholars have built maps of science by connecting the academic fields that cite each other, are cited together, or that cite a similar literature. But since scholars cannot always publish in the fields they cite, or that cite them, these science maps are only rough proxies for the potential of a scholar, organization, or country, to enter a new academic field. Here we use a large dataset of scholarly publications disambiguated at the individual level to create a map of science-or research space-where links connect pairs of fields based on the probability that an individual has published in both of them. We find that the research space is a significantly more accurate predictor of the fields that individuals and organizations will enter in the future than citation based science maps. At the country level, however, the research space and citations based science maps are equally accurate. These findings show that data on career trajectories-the set of fields that individuals have previously published in-provide more accurate predictors of future research output for more focalized units-such as individuals or organizations-than citation based science maps. The spatial preferred attachment (SPA) model is a model for networked information spaces such as domains of the World Wide Web, citation graphs, and on-line social networks. It uses a metric space to model the hidden attributes of the vertices. Thus, vertices are elements of a metric space, and link formation depends on the metric distance between vertices. We show, through theoretical analysis and simulation, that for graphs formed according to the SPA model it is possible to infer the metric distance between vertices from the link structure of the graph. Precisely, the estimate is based on the number of common neighbours of a pair of vertices, a measure known as co-citation. To be able to calculate this estimate, we derive a precise relation between the number of common neighbours and metric distance. We also analyse the distribution of edge lengths, where the length of an edge is the metric distance between its end points. We show that this distribution has three different regimes, and that the tail of this distribution follows a power law. It's well known that the transitivity of friendship is a popular sociological principle in social networks. However, it's still unknown that to what extent people's friend-making behaviors follow this principle and to what extent it can benefit the link prediction task. In this paper, we try to adopt this sociological principle to explain the evolution of networks and study the latent friendship propagation. Unlike traditional link prediction approaches, we model link formation as results of individuals' friend-making behaviors combined with personal interests. We propose the Latent Friendship Propagation Network (LFPN), which depicts the evolution progress of one's egocentric network and reveals future growth potentials driven by the transitivity of friendship based on personal interests. We model individuals' social behaviors using the Latent Friendship Propagation Model (LFPM), a probabilistic generative model from which the LFPN can be learned effectively. To evaluate the power of the friendship propagation in link prediction, we design LFPN-RW which models the friend-making behavior as a random walk upon the LFPN naturally and captures the co-influence effect of the friend circles as well as personal interests to provide more accurate prediction. Experimental results on real-world datasets show that LFPN-RW outperforms the state-of-the-art approaches. This convinces that the transitivity of friendship actually plays important roles in the evolution of social networks. Link prediction is a complex, inherently relational, task. Be it in the domain of scientific citations, social networks or hypertext links, the underlying data are extremely noisy and the characteristics useful for prediction are not readily available in a “flat” file format, but rather involve complex relationships among objects. In this paper, we propose the application of our methodology for Statistical Relational Learning to building link prediction models. We propose an integrated approach to building regression models from data stored in relational databases in which potential predictors are generated by structured search of the space of queries to the database, and then tested for inclusion in a logistic regression. We present experimental results for the task of predicting citations made in scientific literature using relational data taken from CiteSeer. This data includes the citation graph, authorship and publication venues of papers, as well as their word content. The temporal dynamics of a complex system such as a social network or a communication network can be studied by understanding the patterns of link appearance and disappearance over time. A critical task along this understanding is to predict the link state of the network at a future time given a collection of link states at earlier time points. In existing literature, this task is known as link prediction in dynamic networks. Solving this task is more difficult than its counterpart in static networks because an effective feature representation of node-pair instances for the case of dynamic network is hard to obtain. To overcome this problem, we propose a novel method for metric embedding of node-pair instances of a dynamic network. The proposed method models the metric embedding task as an optimal coding problem where the objective is to minimize the reconstruction error, and it solves this optimization task using a gradient descent method. We validate the effectiveness of the learned feature representation by utilizing it for link prediction in various real-life dynamic networks. Specifically, we show that our proposed link prediction model, which uses the extracted feature representation for the training instances, outperforms several existing methods that use well-known link prediction features.