A common tool in the practice of Markov Chain Monte Carlo is to use approximating transition kernels to speed up computation when the true kernel is slow to evaluate. A relatively limited set of quantitative tools exist to determine whether the performance of such approximations will be well behaved and to assess the quality of approximation. We derive a set a tools for such analysis based on the Hilbert space generated by the stationary distribution we intend to sample, @math . The focus of our work is on determining whether the approximating kernel (i.e. perturbation) will preserve the geometric ergodicity of the chain, and whether the approximating stationary distribution will be close to the original stationary distribution. Our results directly generalise the results of johndrow2015approximations from the uniformly ergodic case to the geometrically ergodic case. We then apply our results to the class of Noisy MCMC' algorithms.
Close to the present paper, @cite_2 derive perturbation bounds to assess the robustness of approximate MCMC algorithms. The assumptions upon which their results rely are: the original chain is uniformly contractive in the total variation norm (this implies uniform ergodicity); and the perturbation is sufficiently small (in the operator norm induced by the total variation norm). The main results of their paper are: the perturbed kernel is uniformly contractive in the total variation norm; the perturbed stationary distribution is close to the original stationary distribution in total variation; explicit bounds on the total variation distance between finite time approximate sampling distributions and the original stationary distribution; explicit bounds on total variation difference between the original stationary distribution and the mixture of finite time approximate sampling distributions; and explicit bounds on the MSE for integral approximation using approximate kernel and the true kernel. The results derived by @cite_2 are applied within the same paper to a wide variety of approximate MCMC problems including low rank approximation to Gaussian processes and subsampling approximations.
@cite_2
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In this paper, we consider the filtering and smoothing recursions in nonparametric finite state space hidden Markov models (HMMs) when the parameters of the model are unknown and replaced by estimators. We provide an explicit and time uniform control of the filtering and smoothing errors in total variation norm as a function of the parameter estimation errors. We prove that the risk for the filtering and smoothing errors may be uniformly upper bounded by the risk of the estimators. It has been proved very recently that statistical inference for finite state space nonparametric HMMs is possible. We study how the recent spectral methods developed in the parametric setting may be extended to the nonparametric framework and we give explicit upper bounds for the L2-risk of the nonparametric spectral estimators. When the observation space is compact, this provides explicit rates for the filtering and smoothing errors in total variation norm. The performance of the spectral method is assessed with simulated data for both the estimation of the (nonparametric) conditional distribution of the observations and the estimation of the marginal smoothing distributions. Stochastic Gradient Descent with a constant learning rate (constant SGD) simulates a Markov chain with a stationary distribution. With this perspective, we derive several new results. (1) We show that constant SGD can be used as an approximate Bayesian posterior inference algorithm. Specifically, we show how to adjust the tuning parameters of constant SGD to best match the stationary distribution to a posterior, minimizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence between these two distributions. (2) We demonstrate that constant SGD gives rise to a new variational EM algorithm that optimizes hyperparameters in complex probabilistic models. (3) We also propose SGD with momentum for sampling and show how to adjust the damping coefficient accordingly. (4) We analyze MCMC algorithms. For Langevin Dynamics and Stochastic Gradient Fisher Scoring, we quantify the approximation errors due to finite learning rates. Finally (5), we use the stochastic process perspective to give a short proof of why Polyak averaging is optimal. Based on this idea, we propose a scalable approximate MCMC algorithm, the Averaged Stochastic Gradient Sampler. The Poisson binomial distribution is approximated by a binomial distribution and also by finite signed measures resulting from the corresponding Krawtchouk expansion. Bounds and asymptotic relations for the total variation distance and the point metric are given. Perturbation theory for Markov chains addresses the question how small differences in the transitions of Markov chains are reflected in differences between their distributions. We prove powerful and flexible bounds on the distance of the @math th step distributions of two Markov chains when one of them satisfies a Wasserstein ergodicity condition. Our work is motivated by the recent interest in approximate Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods in the analysis of big data sets. By using an approach based on Lyapunov functions, we provide estimates for geometrically ergodic Markov chains under weak assumptions. In an autoregressive model, our bounds cannot be improved in general. We illustrate our theory by showing quantitative estimates for approximate versions of two prominent MCMC algorithms, the Metropolis-Hastings and stochastic Langevin algorithms. A sequence of Markov chains is said to exhibit (total variation) cutoff if the convergence to stationarity in total variation distance is abrupt. We consider reversible lazy chains. We prove a necessary and sufficient condition for the occurrence of the cutoff phenomena in terms of concentration of hitting time of “worst” (in some sense) sets of stationary measure at least αα, for some α∈(0,1)α∈(0,1). We also give general bounds on the total variation distance of a reversible chain at time tt in terms of the probability that some “worst” set of stationary measure at least αα was not hit by time tt. As an application of our techniques, we show that a sequence of lazy Markov chains on finite trees exhibits a cutoff iff the product of their spectral gaps and their (lazy) mixing-times tends to ∞∞. Variational methods are widely used for approximate posterior inference. However, their use is typically limited to families of distributions that enjoy particular conjugacy properties. To circumvent this limitation, we propose a family of variational approximations inspired by nonparametric kernel density estimation. The locations of these kernels and their bandwidth are treated as variational parameters and optimized to improve an approximate lower bound on the marginal likelihood of the data. Using multiple kernels allows the approximation to capture multiple modes of the posterior, unlike most other variational approximations. We demonstrate the efficacy of the nonparametric approximation with a hierarchical logistic regression model and a nonlinear matrix factorization model. We obtain predictive performance as good as or better than more specialized variational methods and sample-based approximations. The method is easy to apply to more general graphical models for which standard variational methods are difficult to derive. We show that a new probabilistic technique, recently introduced by the first author, yields the sharpest bounds obtained to date on mixing times of Markov chains in terms of isoperimetric properties of the state space (also known as conductance bounds or Cheeger inequalities). We prove that the bounds for mixing time in total variation obtained by Lovasz and Kannan, can be refined to apply to the maximum relative deviation |p n (x,y) π(y)−1| of the distribution at time n from the stationary distribution π. We then extend our results to Markov chains on infinite state spaces and to continuous-time chains. Our approach yields a direct link between isoperimetric inequalities and heat kernel bounds; previously, this link rested on analytic estimates known as Nash inequalities. Sparse Gaussian process methods that use inducing variables require the selection of the inducing inputs and the kernel hyperparameters. We introduce a variational formulation for sparse approximations that jointly infers the inducing inputs and the kernel hyperparameters by maximizing a lower bound of the true log marginal likelihood. The key property of this formulation is that the inducing inputs are defined to be variational parameters which are selected by minimizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the variational distribution and the exact posterior distribution over the latent function values. We apply this technique to regression and we compare it with other approaches in the literature. In recent years analysis of complexity of learning Gaussian mixture models from sampled data has received significant attention in computational machine learning and theory communities. In this paper we present the first result showing that polynomial time learning of multidimensional Gaussian Mixture distributions is possible when the separation between the component means is arbitrarily small. Specifically, we present an algorithm for learning the parameters of a mixture of k identical spherical Gaussians in n-dimensional space with an arbitrarily small separation between the components, which is polynomial in dimension, inverse component separation and other input parameters for a fixed number of components k. The algorithm uses a projection to k dimensions and then a reduction to the 1-dimensional case. It relies on a theoretical analysis showing that two 1-dimensional mixtures whose densities are close in the L norm must have similar means and mixing coefficients. To produce the necessary lower bound for the L norm in terms of the distances between the corresponding means, we analyze the behavior of the Fourier transform of a mixture of Gaussians in one dimension around the origin, which turns out to be closely related to the properties of the Vandermonde matrix obtained from the component means. Analysis of minors of the Vandermonde matrix together with basic function approximation results allows us to provide a lower bound for the norm of the mixture in the Fourier domain and hence a bound in the original space. Additionally, we present a separate argument for reconstructing variance. Model complexities of shallow (i.e., one-hidden-layer) networks representing highly varying multivariable - 1 , 1 -valued functions are studied in terms of variational norms tailored to dictionaries of network units. It is shown that bounds on these norms define classes of functions computable by networks with constrained numbers of hidden units and sizes of output weights. Estimates of probabilistic distributions of values of variational norms with respect to typical computational units, such as perceptrons and Gaussian kernel units, are derived via geometric characterization of variational norms combined with the probabilistic Chernoff Bound. It is shown that almost any randomly chosen - 1 , 1 -valued function on a sufficiently large d-dimensional domain has variation with respect to perceptrons depending on d exponentially. We show that there is a polynomial-time approximation scheme for computing Nash equilibria in anonymous games with any fixed number of strategies (a very broad and important class of games), extending the two-strategy result of Daskalakis and Papadimitriou 2007. The approximation guarantee follows from a probabilistic result of more general interest: The distribution of the sum of n independent unit vectors with values ranging over e1,...,ek , where ei is the unit vector along dimension i of the k-dimensional Euclidean space, can be approximated by the distribution of the sum of another set of independent unit vectors whose probabilities of obtaining each value are multiples of 1 z for some integer z, and so that the variational distance of the two distributions is at most eps, where eps is bounded by an inverse polynomial in z and a function of k, but with no dependence on n. Our probabilistic result specifies the construction of a surprisingly sparse epsi-cover- under the total variation distance - of the set of distributions of sums of independent unit vectors, which is of interest on its own right. We show that kernel-based quadrature rules for computing integrals can be seen as a special case of random feature expansions for positive definite kernels, for a particular decomposition that always exists for such kernels. We provide a theoretical analysis of the number of required samples for a given approximation error, leading to both upper and lower bounds that are based solely on the eigenvalues of the associated integral operator and match up to logarithmic terms. In particular, we show that the upper bound may be obtained from independent and identically distributed samples from a specific non-uniform distribution, while the lower bound if valid for any set of points. Applying our results to kernel-based quadrature, while our results are fairly general, we recover known upper and lower bounds for the special cases of Sobolev spaces. Moreover, our results extend to the more general problem of full function approximations (beyond simply computing an integral), with results in L2- and L∞-norm that match known results for special cases. Applying our results to random features, we show an improvement of the number of random features needed to preserve the generalization guarantees for learning with Lipshitz-continuous losses. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo method is the dominant paradigm for posterior computation in Bayesian analysis. It has long been common to control computation time by making approximations to the Markov transition kernel. Comparatively little attention has been paid to convergence and estimation error in these approximating Markov Chains. We propose a framework for assessing when to use approximations in MCMC algorithms, and how much error in the transition kernel should be tolerated to obtain optimal estimation performance with respect to a specified loss function and computational budget. The results require only ergodicity of the exact kernel and control of the kernel approximation accuracy. The theoretical framework is applied to approximations based on random subsets of data, low-rank approximations of Gaussian processes, and a novel approximating Markov chain for discrete mixture models. Abstract We study the recovery of Hermitian low rank matrices X ∈ C n × n from undersampled measurements via nuclear norm minimization. We consider the particular scenario where the measurements are Frobenius inner products with random rank-one matrices of the form a j a j ⁎ for some measurement vectors a 1 , … , a m , i.e., the measurements are given by b j = tr ( X a j a j ⁎ ) . The case where the matrix X = x x ⁎ to be recovered is of rank one reduces to the problem of phaseless estimation (from measurements b j = | 〈 x , a j 〉 | 2 ) via the PhaseLift approach, which has been introduced recently. We derive bounds for the number m of measurements that guarantee successful uniform recovery of Hermitian rank r matrices, either for the vectors a j , j = 1 , … , m , being chosen independently at random according to a standard Gaussian distribution, or a j being sampled independently from an (approximate) complex projective t-design with t = 4 . In the Gaussian case, we require m ≥ C r n measurements, while in the case of 4-designs we need m ≥ Cr n log ⁡ ( n ) . Our results are uniform in the sense that one random choice of the measurement vectors a j guarantees recovery of all rank r-matrices simultaneously with high probability. Moreover, we prove robustness of recovery under perturbation of the measurements by noise. The result for approximate 4-designs generalizes and improves a recent bound on phase retrieval due to Gross, Krahmer and Kueng. In addition, it has applications in quantum state tomography. Our proofs employ the so-called bowling scheme which is based on recent ideas by Mendelson and Koltchinskii. Upper and lower bounds are given for the total variation distance between the distribution of a sum S of n independent, non-identically distributed 0-1 random variables and the binomial distribution (n, p) having the same expectation as S. The proof uses the Stein--Chen technique. Equivalence of the total variation and the Kolmogorov distance is established, and an application to sampling with and without replacement is presented. Large scale nonlinear support vector machines (SVMs) can be approximated by linear ones using a suitable feature map. The linear SVMs are in general much faster to learn and evaluate (test) than the original nonlinear SVMs. This work introduces explicit feature maps for the additive class of kernels, such as the intersection, Hellinger's, and χ2 kernels, commonly used in computer vision, and enables their use in large scale problems. In particular, we: 1) provide explicit feature maps for all additive homogeneous kernels along with closed form expression for all common kernels; 2) derive corresponding approximate finite-dimensional feature maps based on a spectral analysis; and 3) quantify the error of the approximation, showing that the error is independent of the data dimension and decays exponentially fast with the approximation order for selected kernels such as χ2. We demonstrate that the approximations have indistinguishable performance from the full kernels yet greatly reduce the train test times of SVMs. We also compare with two other approximation methods: Nystrom's approximation of [1], which is data dependent, and the explicit map of Maji and Berg [2] for the intersection kernel, which, as in the case of our approximations, is data independent. The approximations are evaluated on a number of standard data sets, including Caltech-101 [3], Daimler-Chrysler pedestrians [4], and INRIA pedestrians [5]. Abstract We consider random walks in dynamic random environments given by Markovian dynamics on Z d . We assume that the environment has a stationary distribution μ and satisfies the Poincare inequality w.r.t. μ . The random walk is a perturbation of another random walk (called “unperturbed”). We assume that also the environment viewed from the unperturbed random walk has stationary distribution μ . Both perturbed and unperturbed random walks can depend heavily on the environment and are not assumed to be finite-range. We derive a law of large numbers, an averaged invariance principle for the position of the walker and a series expansion for the asymptotic speed. We also provide a condition for non-degeneracy of the diffusion, and describe in some details equilibrium and convergence properties of the environment seen by the walker. All these results are based on a more general perturbative analysis of operators that we derive in the context of L 2 - bounded perturbations of Markov processes by means of the so-called Dyson–Phillips expansion. We develop a new approach for uniform generation of combinatorial objects, and apply it to derive a uniform sampler REG for @math -regular graphs. REG can be implemented such that each graph is generated in expected time @math , provided that @math . Our result significantly improves the previously best uniform sampler, which works efficiently only when @math , with essentially the same running time for the same @math . We also give a linear-time approximate sampler REG*, which generates a random @math -regular graph whose distribution differs from the uniform by @math in total variation distance, when @math . Kernel approximation is commonly used to scale kernel-based algorithms to applications containing as many as several million instances. This paper analyzes the effect of such approximations in the kernel matrix on the hypothesis generated by several widely used learning algorithms. We give stability bounds based on the norm of the kernel approximation for these algorithms, including SVMs, KRR, and graph Laplacian-based regularization algorithms. These bounds help determine the degree of approximation that can be tolerated in the estimation of the kernel matrix. Our analysis is general and applies to arbitrary approximations of the kernel matrix. However, we also give a specific analysis of the Nystr ¨ om low-rank approximation in this context and report the results of experiments evaluating the ′ − �| = The sum of finitely many variates possesses, under familiar conditions, an almost Gaussian probability distribution. This already much discussed "central limit theorem"(x) in the theory of probability is the object of further investigation in the present paper. The cases of Liapounoff(2), Lindeberg(3), and Feller(4) will be reviewed. Numerical estimates for the degrees of approximation attained in these cases will be presented in the three theorems of §4. Theorem 3, the arithmetical refinement of the general theorem of Feller, constitutes our principal result. As the foregoing implies, we require throughout the paper that the given variates be totally independent. And we consider only one-dimensional variates. The first three sections of the paper are devoted to the preparatory Theorem 1 in which the variates.meet the further condition of possessing finite third order absolute moments. Let X , Xi, • • • , Xn be the given variates. For each k k = ,2, ■ ■ ■ , n) let ^(Xk) and ixs Xk) denote, respectively, the second and third order absolute moments of Xk about its mean (expected) value a*. These moments are either both zero or both positive. The former case arises only when Xk is essentially constant, i.e., differs from its mean value at most in cases of total probability zero. To avoid trivialities we suppose that PziXk) >0 for at least one k (k = 1, 2, • • • , n). The non-negative square root of m Xk) is the standard deviation of Xk and will be denoted by ak. We call