We present our Zero Energy Network'' (ZEN) protocol stack for energy harvesting wireless sensor networks applications. The novelty in our work is @math fold: (1) Energy harvesting aware fully featured MAC layer. Carrier sensing, Backoff algorithms, ARQ, RTS CTS mechanisms, Adaptive Duty Cycling are either auto configurable or available as tunable parameters to match the available energy (b) Energy harvesting aware Routing Protocol. The multi-hop network establishes routes to the base station using a modified version of AODVjr routing protocol assisted by energy predictions. (c) Application of a time series called Holt-Winters'' for predicting the incoming energy. (d) A distributed smart application running over the ZEN stack which utilizes a multi parameter optimized perturbation technique to optimally use the available energy. The application is capable of programming the ZEN stack in an energy efficient manner. The energy harvested distributed smart application runs on a realistic solar energy trace with a three year seasonality database. We implement a smart application, capable of modifying itself to suit its own as well as the network's energy level. Our analytical results show a close match with the measurements conducted over EHWSN testbed.
Accurate prediction of the energy is an important factor for energy neutral operations. Time series based energy predictions are commonly used for predicting solar energy. Exponential Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) is commonly applied for future energy predictions @cite_8 , @cite_18 and assigns weights to data in the time series, assigning lower weights to older data and giving importance to more recently acquired data. Holt-Winters (HW) time series is widely used in stock markets trend analysis, production planning, healthcare decisions on staffing & purchasing, demand forecasting @cite_12 and for predicting share prices where forecast value takes trend and seasonal variation into account @cite_4 , @cite_2 . In @cite_26 a three state markov chain model is used to predict the solar energy source and their transition probabilities are restricted for day time only. Energy samples from a simulation model are also generated from the model.
@cite_18 @cite_26 @cite_4 @cite_8 @cite_2 @cite_12
2107221998 2168225348 2541942904 1991781995 2543817966 2028349680
Recently, Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) begin to use the solar energy. But the energy from the environment is usually unstable, An efficient solar prediction algorithm should be studied. In this paper, a novel solar energy prediction algorithm, namely Weather-Conditioned Selective Moving Average (WCSMA), is proposed by using the trend similarity of energy harvesting and the classification of sunny and cloudy days. The simulation results show that the relative mean error of WCSMA algorithm only around 10 , and it is much lower than the Exponential Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) algorithm which is widely used now. Solar panels are frequently used in wireless sensor nodes because they can theoretically provide quite a bit of harvested energy. However, they are not a reliable, consistent source of energy because of the Sun's cycles and the everchanging weather conditions. Thus, in this paper we present a fast, efficient and reliable solar prediction algorithm, namely, Weather-Conditioned Moving Average (WCMA) that is capable of exploiting the solar energy more efficiently than state-of-the-art energy prediction algorithms (e.g. Exponential Weighted Moving Average EWMA). In particular, WCMA is able to effectively take into account both the current and past-days weather conditions, obtaining a relative mean error of only 10 . When coupled with energy management algorithm, it can achieve gains of more than 90 in energy utilization with respect to EWMA under the real working conditions of the Shimmer node, an active sensing platform for structural health monitoring. The energy industry has been going through a significant modernization process over the last decade. Its infrastructure is being upgraded rapidly. The supply, demand and prices are becoming more volatile and less predictable than ever before. Even its business model is being challenged fundamentally. In this competitive and dynamic environment, many decision-making processes rely on probabilistic forecasts to quantify the uncertain future. Although most of the papers in the energy forecasting literature focus on point or single-valued forecasts, the research interest in probabilistic energy forecasting research has taken off rapidly in recent years. In this paper, we summarize the recent research progress on probabilistic energy forecasting. A major portion of the paper is devoted to introducing the Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 (GEFCom2014), a probabilistic energy forecasting competition with four tracks on load, price, wind and solar forecasting, which attracted 581 participants from 61 countries. We conclude the paper with 12 predictions for the next decade of energy forecasting. To sustain perpetual operation, systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their usage to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands are not elastic and its hardware components are not energy-proportional, since it cannot precisely scale its usage to match its supply. Instead, the system must choose when to satisfy its energy demands based on its current energy reserves and predictions of its future energy supply. In this paper, we explore the use of weather forecasts to improve a system's ability to satisfy demand by improving its predictions. We analyze weather forecast, observational, and energy harvesting data to formulate a model that translates a weather forecast to a wind or solar energy harvesting prediction, and quantify its accuracy. We evaluate our model for both energy sources in the context of two different energy harvesting sensor systems with inelastic demands: a sensor testbed that leases sensors to external users and a lexicographically fair sensor network that maintains steady node sensing rates. We show that using weather forecasts in both wind- and solar-powered sensor systems increases each system's ability to satisfy its demands compared with existing prediction strategies. Traditional wireless sensor networks (WSNs) face the problem of a limited-energy source, typically batteries, resulting in the need for careful and effective utilization of the energy source. However, inevitable energy depletion will eventually disturb the operation of a WSN. Energy harvesting (EH) technology is acquiring particular interest, because it has the potential to provide a continuous energy supply in battery-powered WSNs. Solar energy is the most effective environmental energy for EH-WSNs because of its high energy intensity, which comes from a non-controllable source. Therefore, the prediction of future energy availability is a critical issue, as the amount of the harvestable energy may vary over time. In this paper, a novel solar energy prediction algorithm with Q-learning, called Q-learning-based solar energy prediction (QL-SEP), is proposed. Q-learning is an effective way of predicting future actions based on past observations. The distinctive feature of QL-SEP is that not only past days’ observations but also the current weather conditions are considered for prediction. The performance of QL-SEP is simulated in this paper using real-world measurements obtained from a solar panel in comparison with the state-of-art approaches. Abstract Forecasting of energy demand in emerging markets is one of the most important policy tools used by the decision makers all over the world. In Turkey, most of the early studies used include various forms of econometric modeling. However, since the estimated economic and demographic parameters usually deviate from the realizations, time-series forecasting appears to give better results. In this study, we used the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) methods to estimate the future primary energy demand of Turkey from 2005 to 2020. The ARIMA forecasting of the total primary energy demand appears to be more reliable than the summation of the individual forecasts. The results have shown that the average annual growth rates of individual energy sources and total primary energy will decrease in all cases except wood and animal–plant remains which will have negative growth rates. The decrease in the rate of energy demand may be interpreted that the energy intensity peak will be achieved in the coming decades. Another interpretation is that any decrease in energy demand will slow down the economic growth during the forecasted period. Rates of changes and reserves in the fossil fuels indicate that inter-fuel substitution should be made leading to a best mix of the country's energy system. Based on our findings we proposed some policy recommendations. The increasing popularity of micro-scale power-scavenging techniques for wireless sensor networks (WSNs) is paving the way to energy-autonomous sensing systems. To sustain perpetual operations, however, environmentally powered devices must adapt their workload to the stochastic nature of ambient sources. Energy prediction models, which estimate the future expected energy intake, are effective tools to support the development of proactive power management strategies. In this paper, we present profile energy prediction model (Pro-Energy), an energy prediction model for multi-source energy-harvesting WSNs that leverages past energy observations to forecast future energy availability. We then propose Pro-Energy with variable-length timeslots (Pro-Energy-VLT), an extension of Pro-Energy that combines our energy predictor with timeslots of variable lengths to adapt to the dynamics of the power source. To assess the performance of our proposed solutions, we use real-life solar and wind traces, as well as publicly available traces of solar irradiance and wind speed. A comparative performance evaluation shows that Pro-Energy significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art energy predictors, by improving the prediction accuracy of up to 67 . Moreover, by adapting the granularity of the prediction timeslots to the dynamics of the energy source, Pro-Energy-VLT further improves the prediction accuracy, while reducing the memory footprint and the energy overhead of energy forecasting. Graphical abstractDisplay Omitted HighlightsWe predict maximum and minimum day stock prices of power companies.The methodology is based on attribute selection and time series prediction.The most relevant attributes are determined by correlation analysis.The actual time series prediction is carried out by neural networks.The proposed methodology provides very good results. Time series forecasting has been widely used to determine future prices of stocks, and the analysis and modeling of finance time series is an important task for guiding investors' decisions and trades. Nonetheless, the prediction of prices by means of a time series is not trivial and it requires a thorough analysis of indexes, variables and other data. In addition, in a dynamic environment such as the stock market, the non-linearity of the time series is a pronounced characteristic, and this immediately affects the efficacy of stock price forecasts. Thus, this paper aims at proposing a methodology that forecasts the maximum and minimum day stock prices of three Brazilian power distribution companies, which are traded in the Sao Paulo Stock Exchange BM&FBovespa. When compared to the other papers already published in the literature, one of the main contributions and novelty of this paper is the forecast of the range of closing prices of Brazilian power distribution companies' stocks. As a result of its application, investors may be able to define threshold values for their stock trades. Moreover, such a methodology may be of great interest to home brokers who do not possess ample knowledge to invest in such companies. The proposed methodology is based on the calculation of distinct features to be analysed by means of attribute selection, defining the most relevant attributes to predict the maximum and minimum day stock prices of each company. Then, the actual prediction was carried out by Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), which had their performances evaluated by means of Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) calculations. The proposed methodology for addressing the problem of prediction of maximum and minimum day stock prices for Brazilian distribution companies is effective. In addition, these results were only possible to be achieved due to the combined use of attribute selection by correlation analysis and ANNs. This paper proposes a method for selecting explanatory variables for global solar radiation forecasting. The weather conditions affect generation output of renewable energy significantly. As a result, smart grids increase the uncertainties caused by the power injections of photovoltaic (PV) and or wind power generation. To smooth smart grid operation, it is necessary to select the predicted input variables for the forecasting model. In this paper, how to select explanatory variables in the forecasting model of PV generation is discussed because Japan gives much higher priority to PV generation in the framework of future energy policy. The global solar radiation is one of the most important variables in dealing with PV generation output forecasting. This paper focuses on the relationship between the global solar radiation and its explanatory variables. The proposed method makes use of the CART (Classification and Regression Trees) algorithm of data mining method to select the explanatory or input variables in the forecasting model of global solar radiation. CART has the function to give priority to explanatory variables through an index called Variable Importance. The proposed method was applied to real data of global solar radiation in Tokyo, Japan. Recently, there has been a substantial interest in the design of systems that receive their energy from regenerative sources such as solar cells. In contrast to approaches that minimize the power consumption subject to performance constraints, we are concerned with optimizing the performance of an application while respecting the limited and time-varying amount of available power. In this paper, we address power management of, e.g., wireless sensor nodes which receive their energy from solar cells. Based on a prediction of the future available energy, we adapt parameters of the application in order to maximize the utility in a long-term perspective. The paper presents a formal model of the corresponding optimization problem including constraints concerning buffer sizes, timing, and rates. Instead of solving the optimization problem online which may be prohibitively complex in terms of running time and energy consumption, we apply multiparametric programming to precompute the application parameters offline for different environmental conditions and system states. In order to guarantee sustainable operation, we propose a hierarchical software design which comprises a worst-case prediction of the incoming energy. As a further contribution, we suggest a new method for approximate multiparametric linear programming which substantially lowers the computational demand and memory requirement of the embedded software. Our approaches are evaluated using long-term measurements of solar energy in an outdoor environment. Small size photovoltaic modules can harvest enough energy to power many personal devices and wireless sensor nodes. The prediction of solar energy intake is possible thanks to the periodical availability of the sunlight and its cyclic behavior. Thus, smart and innovative power management strategies can take advantage from intake prediction algorithms to optimize the energy usage by keeping the system in low power state as long as possible. On the other hand, very accurate predictions need time and energy because of complex calculations, thus an algorithm that can provide the optimal trade-off between computational effort and accuracy is a breakthrough for systems with tight power constraints. In this paper we introduce an innovative, efficient and reliable solar prediction algorithm, the weather conditioned moving average (WCMA). The algorithm has been further enhanced to increase performance using a phase displacement regulator (PDR) which reduces the average error to less than 9.2 at a minimum energy cost. The proposed new algorithm compares favorably with several competing approaches. A suitable combination of linear and nonlinear models provides a more accurate prediction model than an individual linear or nonlinear model for forecasting time series data originating from various applications. The linear autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and nonlinear artificial neural network (ANN) models are explored in this paper to devise a new hybrid ARIMA-ANN model for the prediction of time series data. Many of the hybrid ARIMA-ANN models which exist in the literature apply an ARIMA model to given time series data, consider the error between the original and the ARIMA-predicted data as a nonlinear component, and model it using an ANN in different ways. Though these models give predictions with higher accuracy than the individual models, there is scope for further improvement in the accuracy if the nature of the given time series is taken into account before applying the models. In the work described in this paper, the nature of volatility was explored using a moving-average filter, and then an ARIMA and an ANN model were suitably applied. Using a simulated data set and experimental data sets such as sunspot data, electricity price data, and stock market data, the proposed hybrid ARIMA-ANN model was applied along with individual ARIMA and ANN models and some existing hybrid ARIMA-ANN models. The results obtained from all of these data sets show that for both one-step-ahead and multistep-ahead forecasts, the proposed hybrid model has higher prediction accuracy. This paper, bases on the trend and seasonal fluctuation of China's monthly railway freight, uses ARIMA model and Holt-Winters model to forecast. After comparison of forecasting results, a final freight result from January to December of 2010 is generated. After verification, the predict results of ARIMA model and Holt-Winters model, with errors lower than 4 , are preferable to be used of railway freight forecast. A kind of combination forecasting model based on Holt-Winters method and the evaluation model of customer credit are proposed in this paper, utilizing the time series data of demand. The Holt-Winters model is used to identify the pattern which contained in data set, while the customer-credit evaluation model is used to analyze the intent of ordering, which can reduce the uncertainty of prediction. Thus a favorable result can be got by the combination of these two values of forecasting. Neural network predictor is widely applicable in intelligent forecast. However, it encounters the crucial problem that the predicted values always cannot achieve the satisfactory results because the generalization capability in neural network predictor can't perform extrapolation well. Therefore, this study introduced an integrated predictor to compare with neural network predictor utilized for the applications of non-periodic short-term time series forecast. This proposed predictor in fact is an integrated model, combing a grey prediction model and a cumulative least squared linear prediction model, with the technique of automatically compensating a possible overestimated predicted value by a potential damped predicted value around those predicting points having locally extreme high or low value. The verification of this study also experiments successfully in the stock price indexes forecast, and the results out of integrated predictor achieved the best accuracy on the predicted stock price indexes compared with Back-Propagation neural network predictor, Box-Jenkins, and Holt-Winters smoothing. Harvesting energy from the environment is feasible in many applications to ameliorate the energy limitations in sensor networks. In this paper, we present an adaptive duty cycling algorithm that allows energy harvesting sensor nodes to autonomously adjust their duty cycle according to the energy availability in the environment. The algorithm has three objectives, namely (a) achieving energy neutral operation, i.e., energy consumption should not be more than the energy provided by the environment, (b) maximizing the system performance based on an application utility model subject to the above energy-neutrality constraint, and (c) adapting to the dynamics of the energy source at run-time. We present a model that enables harvesting sensor nodes to predict future energy opportunities based on historical data. We also derive an upper bound on the maximum achievable performance assuming perfect knowledge about the future behavior of the energy source. Our methods are evaluated using data gathered from a prototype solar energy harvesting platform and we show that our algorithm can utilize up to 58 more environmental energy compared to the case when harvesting-aware power management is not used. Multivariate time series forecasting is an important machine learning problem across many domains, including predictions of solar plant energy output, electricity consumption, and traffic jam situation. Temporal data arise in these real-world applications often involves a mixture of long-term and short-term patterns, for which traditional approaches such as Autoregressive models and Gaussian Process may fail. In this paper, we proposed a novel deep learning framework, namely Long- and Short-term Time-series network (LSTNet), to address this open challenge. LSTNet uses the Convolution Neural Network (CNN) and the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) to extract short-term local dependency patterns among variables and to discover long-term patterns for time series trends. Furthermore, we leverage traditional autoregressive model to tackle the scale insensitive problem of the neural network model. In our evaluation on real-world data with complex mixtures of repetitive patterns, LSTNet achieved significant performance improvements over that of several state-of-the-art baseline methods. All the data and experiment codes are available online. Using a large-scale Deep Learning approach applied to a high-frequency database containing billions of electronic market quotes and transactions for US equities, we uncover nonparametric evidence for the existence of a universal and stationary price formation mechanism relating the dynamics of supply and demand for a stock, as revealed through the order book, to subsequent variations in its market price. We assess the model by testing its out-of-sample predictions for the direction of price moves given the history of price and order flow, across a wide range of stocks and time periods. The universal price formation model is shown to exhibit a remarkably stable out-of-sample prediction accuracy across time, for a wide range of stocks from different sectors. Interestingly, these results also hold for stocks which are not part of the training sample, showing that the relations captured by the model are universal and not asset-specific. The universal model --- trained on data from all stocks --- outperforms, in terms of out-of-sample prediction accuracy, asset-specific linear and nonlinear models trained on time series of any given stock, showing that the universal nature of price formation weighs in favour of pooling together financial data from various stocks, rather than designing asset- or sector-specific models as commonly done. Standard data normalizations based on volatility, price level or average spread, or partitioning the training data into sectors or categories such as large small tick stocks, do not improve training results. On the other hand, inclusion of price and order flow history over many past observations is shown to improve forecasting performance, showing evidence of path-dependence in price dynamics. A key goal of smart grid initiatives is significantly increasing the fraction of grid energy contributed by renewables. One challenge with integrating renewables into the grid is that their power generation is intermittent and uncontrollable. Thus, predicting future renewable generation is important, since the grid must dispatch generators to satisfy demand as generation varies. While manually developing sophisticated prediction models may be feasible for large-scale solar farms, developing them for distributed generation at millions of homes throughout the grid is a challenging problem. To address the problem, in this paper, we explore automatically creating site-specific prediction models for solar power generation from National Weather Service (NWS) weather forecasts using machine learning techniques. We compare multiple regression techniques for generating prediction models, including linear least squares and support vector machines using multiple kernel functions. We evaluate the accuracy of each model using historical NWS forecasts and solar intensity readings from a weather station deployment for nearly a year. Our results show that SVM-based prediction models built using seven distinct weather forecast metrics are 27 more accurate for our site than existing forecast-based models. The ability to predict linkages among data objects is central to many data mining tasks, such as product recommendation and social network analysis. Substantial literature has been devoted to the link prediction problem either as an implicitly embedded problem in specific applications or as a generic data mining task. This literature has mostly adopted a static graph representation where a snapshot of the network is analyzed to predict hidden or future links. However, this representation is only appropriate to investigate whether a certain link will ever occur and does not apply to many applications for which the prediction of the repeated link occurrences are of primary interest (e.g., communication network surveillance). In this paper, we introduce the time-series link prediction problem, taking into consideration temporal evolutions of link occurrences to predict link occurrence probabilities at a particular time. Using Enron e-mail data and high-energy particle physics literature coauthorship data, we have demonstrated that time-series models of single-link occurrences achieve comparable link prediction performance with commonly used static graph link prediction algorithms. Furthermore, a combination of static graph link prediction algorithms and time-series models produced significantly better predictions over static graph link prediction methods, demonstrating the great potential of integrated methods that exploit both interlink structural dependencies and intralink temporal dependencies.