We analyze the computational complexity of market maker pricing algorithms for combinatorial prediction markets. We focus on Hanson's popular logarithmic market scoring rule market maker (LMSR). Our goal is to implicitly maintain correct LMSR prices across an exponentially large outcome space. We examine both permutation combinatorics, where outcomes are permutations of objects, and Boolean combinatorics, where outcomes are combinations of binary events. We look at three restrictive languages that limit what traders can bet on. Even with severely limited languages, we find that LMSR pricing is @math -hard, even when the same language admits polynomial-time matching without the market maker. We then propose an approximation technique for pricing permutation markets based on a recent algorithm for online permutation learning. The connections we draw between LMSR pricing and the vast literature on online learning with expert advice may be of independent interest.
@cite_17 study the computational complexity of finding acceptable trades among a set of bids in a Boolean combinatorial market. In their setting, the center is an who takes no risk, only matching together willing traders. They study a call market setting in which bids are collected together and processed once en masse. They show that the auctioneer matching problem is co-NP-complete when orders are divisible and @math -complete when orders are indivisible, but identify a tractable special case in which participants are restricted to bet on disjunctions of positive events or single negative events.
@cite_17
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We consider a permutation betting scenario, where people wager on the final ordering of n candidates: for example, the outcome of a horse race. We examine the auctioneer problem of risklessly matching up wagers or, equivalently, finding arbitrage opportunities among the proposed wagers. Requiring bidders to explicitly list the orderings that they'd like to bet on is both unnatural and intractable, because the number of orderings is n! and the number of subsets of orderings is 2n!. We propose two expressive betting languages that seem natural for bidders, and examine the computational complexity of the auctioneer problem in each case. Subset betting allows traders to bet either that a candidate will end up ranked among some subset of positions in the final ordering, for example, "horse A will finish in positions 4, 9, or 13-21", or that a position will be taken by some subset of candidates, for example "horse A, B, or D will finish in position 2". For subset betting, we show that the auctioneer problem can be solved in polynomial time if orders are divisible. Pair betting allows traders to bet on whether one candidate will end up ranked higher than another candidate, for example "horse A will beat horse B". We prove that the auctioneer problem becomes NP-hard for pair betting. We identify a sufficient condition for the existence of a pair betting match that can be verified in polynomial time. We also show that a natural greedy algorithm gives a poor approximation for indivisible orders. In this paper, we present a novel combinatorial auction (CA) based trading infrastructure to enable the supply and demand of Cloud services from different Cloud providers (CP). We propose a new auction policy that considers the relationship among CPs (mutual business relationship) in bidding mechanism. In our new auction-based market model, we allow the group of service providers to publish their bids collaboratively as a single bid to the auctioneer. It gives service providers a chance to autonomously find partners and make groups. Then they can use group strategy to increase their competitive power and compete for winning the bid (s). This will reduce conflicts, as well as collaboration cost and negotiation time, among participants as compare to existing CA-based market model. We implement our proposed market model of trading service in a simulated environment and study its economic efficiency with existing model. In a combinatorial auction with item bidding, agents participate in multiple single-item second-price auctions at once. As some items might be substitutes, agents need to strategize in order to maximize their utilities. A number of results indicate that high welfare can be achieved this way, giving bounds on the welfare at equilibrium. Recently, however, criticism has been raised that equilibria are hard to compute and therefore unlikely to be attained. In this paper, we take a different perspective. We study simple best-response dynamics. That is, agents are activated one after the other and each activated agent updates his strategy myopically to a best response against the other agents' current strategies. Often these dynamics may take exponentially long before they converge or they may not converge at all. However, as we show, convergence is not even necessary for good welfare guarantees. Given that agents' bid updates are aggressive enough but not too aggressive, the game will remain in states of good welfare after each agent has updated his bid at least once. In more detail, we show that if agents have fractionally subadditive valuations, natural dynamics reach and remain in a state that provides a @math approximation to the optimal welfare after each agent has updated his bid at least once. For subadditive valuations, we can guarantee an @math approximation in case of @math items that applies after each agent has updated his bid at least once and at any point after that. The latter bound is complemented by a negative result, showing that no kind of best-response dynamics can guarantee more than an @math fraction of the optimal social welfare. In a prediction market, agents trade assets whose value is tied to a future event, for example the outcome of the next presidential election. Asset prices determine a probability distribution over the set of possible outcomes. Typically, the outcome space is small, allowing agents to directly trade in each outcome, and allowing a market maker to explicitly update asset prices. Combinatorial markets, in contrast, work to estimate a full joint distribution of dependent observations, in which case the outcome space grows exponentially. In this paper, we consider the problem of pricing combinatorial markets for single-elimination tournaments. With @math competing teams, the outcome space is of size 2n-1. We show that the general pricing problem for tournaments is P-hard. We derive a polynomial-time algorithm for a restricted betting language based on a Bayesian network representation of the probability distribution. The language is fairly natural in the context of tournaments, allowing for example bets of the form "team i wins game k". We believe that our betting language is the first for combinatorial market makers that is both useful and tractable. We briefly discuss a heuristic approximation technique for the general case. We introduce single-bid auctions as a new format for combinatorial auctions. In single-bid auctions, each bidder submits a single real-valued bid for the right to buy items at a fixed price. Contrary to other simple auction formats, such as simultaneous or sequential single-item auctions, bidders can implement no-regret learning strategies for single-bid auctions in polynomial time. Price of anarchy bounds for correlated equilibria concepts in single-bid auctions therefore have more bite than their counterparts for auctions and equilibria for which learning is not known to be computationally tractable (or worse, known to be computationally intractable [Cai and Papadimitriou 2014; 2015] this end, we show that for any subadditive valuations the social welfare at equilibrium is an O(log m)-approximation to the optimal social welfare, where @math is the number of items. We also provide tighter approximation results for several subclasses. Our welfare guarantees hold for Nash equilibria and no-regret learning outcomes in both Bayesian and complete information settings via the smooth-mechanism framework. Of independent interest, our techniques show that in a combinatorial auction setting, efficiency guarantees of a mechanism via smoothness for a very restricted class of cardinality valuations extend, with a small degradation, to subadditive valuations, the largest complement-free class of valuations. Combinatorial auctions (CAs) are important mechanisms for allocating interrelated items. Unfortunately, winner determination is NP-complete unless there is special structure. We study the setting where there is a graph (with some desired property), with the items as vertices, and every bid bids on a connected set of items. Two computational problems arise: 1) clearing the auction when given the item graph, and 2) constructing an item graph (if one exists) with the desired property. 1 was previously solved for the case of a tree or a cycle, and 2 for the case of a line graph or a cycle. We generalize the first result by showing that given an item graph with bounded treewidth, the clearing problem can be solved in polynomial time (and every CA instance has some treewidth; the complexity is exponential in only that parameter). We then give an algorithm for constructing an item tree (treewidth 1) if such a tree exists, thus closing a recognized open problem. We show why this algorithm does not work for treewidth greater than 1, but leave open whether item graphs of (say) treewidth 2 can be constructed in polynomial time. We show that finding the item graph with the fewest edges is NP-complete (even when a graph of treewidth 2 exists). Finally, we study how the results change if a bid is allowed to have more than one connected component. Even for line graphs, we show that clearing is hard even with 2 components, and constructing the line graph is hard even with 5. Frequent call markets have been proposed as a market design solution to the latency arms race perpetuated by high-frequency traders in continuous markets, but the path to widespread adoption of such markets is unclear. If such trading mechanisms were available, would anyone want to use them? This is ultimately a question of market choice, thus we model it as a game of strategic market selection, where agents choose to participate in either a frequent call market or a continuous double auction. Our market environment is populated by fast and slow traders, who reenter to trade at different rates. We employ empirical game-theoretic methods to determine the market types and trading strategies selected in equilibrium. We also analyze best-response patterns to characterize the frequent call market’s basin of attraction. Our findings show that in equilibrium, welfare of slow traders is generally higher in the call market. We also find strong evidence of a predator-prey relation between fast and slow traders: the fast traders chase agents into either market, and slow traders under pursuit seek the protection of the frequent call market. In this article, we study the problem of online market clearing where there is one commodity in the market being bought and sold by multiple buyers and sellers whose bids arrive and expire at different times. The auctioneer is faced with an online clearing problem of deciding which buy and sell bids to match without knowing what bids will arrive in the future. For maximizing profit, we present a (randomized) online algorithm with a competitive ratio of ln(pmax − pmin) p 1, when bids are in a range [pmin, pmax], which we show is the best possible. A simpler algorithm has a ratio twice this, and can be used even if expiration times are not known. For maximizing the number of trades, we present a simple greedy algorithm that achieves a factor of 2 competitive ratio if no money-losing trades are allowed. We also show that if the online algorithm is allowed to subsidize matches---match money-losing pairs if it has already collected enough money from previous pairs to pay for them---then it can actually be 1-competitive with respect to the optimal offline algorithm that is not allowed subsidy. That is, for maximizing the number of trades, the ability to subsidize is at least as valuable as knowing the future. We also consider objectives of maximizing buy or sell volume and social welfare. We present all of these results as corollaries of theorems on online matching in an incomplete interval graph.We also consider the issue of incentive compatibility, and develop a nearly optimal incentive-compatible algorithm for maximizing social welfare. For maximizing profit, we show that no incentive-compatible algorithm can achieve a sublinear competitive ratio, even if only one buy bid and one sell bid are alive at a time. However, we provide an algorithm that, under certain mild assumptions on the bids, performs nearly as well as the best fixed pair of buy and sell prices, a weaker but still natural performance measure. This latter result uses online learning methods, and we also show how such methods can be used to improve our “optimal” algorithms to a broader notion of optimality. Finally, we show how some of our results can be generalized to settings in which the buyers and sellers themselves have online bidding strategies, rather than just each having individual bids. Combinatorial Auctions are auctions where bidders can place bids on combinations of items, called packages or bundles, rather than just on individual items. In this paper we extend this concept to distributed system, by proposing a Distributed Combinatorial Auctioning System consisting of auctioneers and bidders who communicate by message-passing. We also propose a fair division algorithm that is based on our DCAS concept and model. Our model consist of auctioneers that are distributed in the system each having local bidders. Auctioneers collect local bids for the bundles. One of the auctioneers acts obtains all the bids from other auctioneers, and performs the computations necessary for the combinatorial auction. We also briefly discuss how basic and extended fairness are implemented in resource allocation by our algorithm. Cloud computing has been an emerging model which aims at allowing customers to utilize computing resources hosted by Cloud Service Providers (CSPs). More and more consumers rely on CSPs to supply computing and storage service on the one hand, and CSPs try to attract consumers on favorable terms on the other. In such competitive cloud computing markets, pricing policies are critical to market efficiency. While CSPs often publish their prices and charge users according to the amount of resources they consume, auction mechanism is rarely applied. In fact a feasible auction mechanism is the most effective method for allocation of resources, especially double auction is more efficient and flexible for it enables buyers and sellers to enter bids and offers simultaneously. In this paper we bring up an electronic auction platform for cloud, and a cloud Continuous Double Auction (CDA) mechanism is formulated to match orders and facilitate trading based on the platform. Some evaluating criteria are defined to analyze the efficiency of markets and strategies. Furthermore, the selection of bidding strategies for the auction plays a very important role for each player to maximize its own profit, so we developed a novel bidding strategy for cloud CDA, BH-strategy, which is a two-stage game bidding strategy. At last we designed three simulation scenarios to compare the performance of our strategy with other dominating bidding strategies and proved that BH-strategy has better performance on surpluses, successful transactions and market efficiency. In addition, we discussed that our cloud CDA mechanism is feasible for cloud computing resource allocation. Prediction markets are economic mechanisms for aggregating information about future events through sequential interactions with traders. The pricing mechanisms in these markets are known to be related to optimization algorithms in machine learning and through these connections we have some understanding of how equilibrium market prices relate to the beliefs of the traders in a market. However, little is known about rates and guarantees for the convergence of these sequential mechanisms, and two recent papers cite this as an important open question. In this paper we show how some previously studied prediction market trading models can be understood as a natural generalization of randomized coordinate descent which we call randomized subspace descent (RSD). We establish convergence rates for RSD and leverage them to prove rates for the two prediction market models above, answering the open questions. Our results extend beyond standard centralized markets to arbitrary trade networks. In this paper, we study the Nash dynamics of strategic interplays of n buyers in a matching market setup by a seller, the market maker. Taking the standard market equilibrium approach, upon receiving submitted bid vectors from the buyers, the market maker will decide on a price vector to clear the market in such a way that each buyer is allocated an item for which he desires the most (a.k.a., a market equilibrium solution). While such equilibrium outcomes are not unique, the market maker chooses one (maxeq) that optimizes its own objective --- revenue maximization. The buyers in turn change bids to their best interests in order to obtain higher utilities in the next round's market equilibrium solution. This is an (n+1)-person game where buyers place strategic bids to gain the most from the market maker's equilibrium mechanism. The incentives of buyers in deciding their bids and the market maker's choice of using the maxeq mechanism create a wave of Nash dynamics involved in the market. We characterize Nash equilibria in the dynamics in terms of the relationship between maxeq and mineq (i.e., minimum revenue equilibrium), and develop convergence results for Nash dynamics from the maxeq policy to a mineq solution, resulting an outcome equivalent to the truthful VCG mechanism. Our results imply revenue equivalence between maxeq and mineq, and address the question that why short-term revenue maximization is a poor long run strategy, in a deterministic and dynamic setting. This paper analyzes ex post equilibria in the VCG combinatorial auctions. If Σ is a family of bundles of goods, the organizer may restrict the bundles on which the participants submit bids, and the bundles allocated to them, to be in Σ .T heΣ -VCG combinatorial auctions obtained in this way are known to be truth-telling mechanisms. In contrast, this paper deals with non-restricted VCG auctions, in which the buyers choose strategies that involve bidding only on bundles in Σ , and these strategies form an equilibrium. We fully characterize those Σ that induce an equilibrium in every VCG auction, and we refer to the associated equilibrium as a bundling equilibrium. The main motivation for studying all these equilibria, and not just the domination equilibrium, is that they afford a reduction of the communication complexity. We analyze the tradeoff between communication complexity and economic efficiency of bundling equilibrium. Many combinatorial search problems can be expressed as 'constraint satisfaction problems', and this class of problems is known to be NP-complete in general. In this paper we investigate 'disjunctive constraints', that is, constraints which have the form of the disjunction of two constraints of specified types. We show that when the constraint types involved in the disjunction have a certain property, which we call 'independence', and when a certain restricted class of problems is tractable, then the class of all problems involving these disjunctive constraints is tractable. We give examples to show that many known examples of tractable constraint classes arise in this way, and derive new tractable classes which have not previously been identified. In the context of a myriad of mobile apps which collect personally identifiable information (PII) and a prospective market place of personal data, we investigate a user-centric monetary valuation of mobile PII. During a 6-week long user study in a living lab deployment with 60 participants, we collected their daily valuations of 4 categories of mobile PII (communication, e.g. phonecalls made received, applications, e.g. time spent on different apps, location and media, e.g. photos taken) at three levels of complexity (individual data points, aggregated statistics and processed, i.e. meaningful interpretations of the data). In order to obtain honest valuations, we employ a reverse second price auction mechanism. Our findings show that the most sensitive and valued category of personal information is location. We report statistically significant associations between actual mobile usage, personal dispositions, and bidding behavior. Finally, we outline key implications for the design of mobile services and future markets of personal data. We study and formulate arbitrage in display advertising. Real-Time Bidding (RTB) mimics stock spot exchanges and utilises computers to algorithmically buy display ads per impression via a real-time auction. Despite the new automation, the ad markets are still informationally inefficient due to the heavily fragmented marketplaces. Two display impressions with similar or identical effectiveness (e.g., measured by conversion or click-through rates for a targeted audience) may sell for quite different prices at different market segments or pricing schemes. In this paper, we propose a novel data mining paradigm called Statistical Arbitrage Mining (SAM) focusing on mining and exploiting price discrepancies between two pricing schemes. In essence, our SAMer is a meta-bidder that hedges advertisers' risk between CPA (cost per action)-based campaigns and CPM (cost per mille impressions)-based ad inventories; it statistically assesses the potential profit and cost for an incoming CPM bid request against a portfolio of CPA campaigns based on the estimated conversion rate, bid landscape and other statistics learned from historical data. In SAM, (i) functional optimisation is utilised to seek for optimal bidding to maximise the expected arbitrage net profit, and (ii) a portfolio-based risk management solution is leveraged to reallocate bid volume and budget across the set of campaigns to make a risk and return trade-off. We propose to jointly optimise both components in an EM fashion with high efficiency to help the meta-bidder successfully catch the transient statistical arbitrage opportunities in RTB. Both the offline experiments on a real-world large-scale dataset and online A B tests on a commercial platform demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed solution in exploiting arbitrage in various model settings and market environments. For certain subclasses of NP, @math P, or #P characterized by local constraints, it is known that if there exist any problems within that subclass that are not polynomial time computable, then all the problems in the subclass are NP-complete, @math P-complete, or #P-complete. Such dichotomy results have been proved for characterizations such as constraint satisfaction problems and directed and undirected graph homomorphism problems, often with additional restrictions. Here we give a dichotomy result for the more expressive framework of Holant problems. For example, these additionally allow for the expression of matching problems, which have had pivotal roles in the development of complexity theory. As our main result we prove the dichotomy theorem that, for the class @math P, every set of symmetric Holant signatures of any arities that is not polynomial time computable is @math P-complete. The result exploits some special properties of the class @math P and characterizes four distinct tractable ... This paper proposes a decentralised and privacy-preserving local electricity trading market. The market employs a bidding protocol based on secure multiparty computation and allows users to trade their excess electricity among themselves. The bid selection and trading price calculation are performed in a decentralised and privacy-preserving manner. We implemented the market in C++ and tested its performance with realistic data sets. Our simulation results show that the market tasks can be performed for 2500 bids in less than four minutes in the “online” phase, showing its feasibility for a typical electricity trading period. We study the dynamic mechanism design problem of a seller who repeatedly sells independent items to a buyer with private values. In this setting, the seller could potentially extract the entire buyer surplus by running efficient auctions and charging an upfront participation fee at the beginning of the horizon. In some markets, such as internet advertising, participation fees are not practical since buyers expect to inspect items before purchasing them. This motivates us to study the design of dynamic mechanisms under successively more stringent requirements that capture the implicit business constraints of these markets. We first consider a periodic individual rationality constraint, which limits the mechanism to charge at most the buyer's value in each period. While this prevents large upfront participation fees, the seller can still design mechanisms that spread a participation fee across the first few auctions. These mechanisms have the unappealing feature that they provide close-to-zero buyer utility in earlier auctions in exchange for higher utility in later auctions. To address this problem, we introduce a martingale utility constraint, which imposes the requirement that from the perspective of the buyer, the next item's expected utility is equal to the present one's. Our main result is providing a dynamic auction satisfying martingale utility and periodic individual rationality whose loss in profit with respect to first-best (full extraction of buyer surplus) is optimal up to polylogarithmic factors. The proposed mechanism is a dynamic two-tier auction with a hard floor and a soft floor that allocates the item whenever the buyer's bid is above the hard floor and charges the minimum of the bid and the soft floor. Short-term congestion forecasting is highly important for market participants in wholesale power markets that use locational marginal prices (LMPs) to manage congestion. Accurate congestion forecasting facilitates market traders in bidding and trading activities and assists market operators in system planning. This study proposes a new short-term forecasting algorithm for congestion, LMPs, and other power system variables based on the concept of system patterns - combinations of status flags for generating units and transmission lines. The advantage of this algorithm relative to standard statistical forecasting methods is that structural aspects underlying power market operations are exploited to reduce forecast error. The advantage relative to previously proposed structural forecasting methods is that data requirements are substantially reduced. Forecasting results based on a NYISO case study demonstrate the feasibility and accuracy of the proposed algorithm.