To minimize property loss and death count in terror attacks and other emergent scenarios, attention given to timely and effective evacuation cannot be enough. Due to limited evacuation resource, i.e., number of available exits, there exists interdependence among pedestrians such as cooperation, competition and herd effect. Thus human factors - more specifically, pedestrians' behavior in emergency evacuation - play a significant role in evacuation research. Effective evacuation can only be reached when route planning are considered in conjunction with psychological dynamics, which is often ignored. As another drawback, previous research assumes the environment including available exits as stationary. However, we note that during emergency, some exits which are not often utilized in normal times are opened, which potentially helps if pedestrians are aware of them. In this paper, we analyze the effect of pedestrians' behavior, i.e., herd effect and knowledge of changing environment with Cellular Automata (CA) simulation. Results of the simulation show the harmful effect of herd effect as well as highlight the importance of timely informing pedestrians of environmental change. Accordingly, we propose policy and procedural recommendations for emergency management of large, crowded structures. Our future work includes considering more human factors and applying our model to log data provided by videos in public venues, which can further show effectiveness of our model in real scenarios.
@cite_11 proposes a behavior-based cellular automaton (CA) model for pedestrian dynamics and show that for a given range of emergency degree, the enlarged emergency degree can shorten the evacuation time yet depresses cooperation enthusiasm. On the contrary, as dependence (familiarity) of pedestrians increases, the evacuation time and the fraction of cooperation increase.
@cite_11
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Pedestrian evacuation is one open question in a myriad of scientific disciplines and has attracted considerable attention during the past decades. Aim to issue, various research approaches, such as mathematical modeling and simulation, experimental studied and socio-psychology surveys, have been extensively employed. Different from previous frameworks, here a behavior-based cellular automaton model is proposed, which involves the environmental characteristics and neighbors' behaviors. Given the certain range of degree of emergency, it is shown that enhancing the degree of emergency will shorten evacuation time yet decrease cooperation enthusiasm. The larger the degree of familiarity is, the shorter the evacuation time will be. In variance, larger the dependence of pedestrians will prolong the evacuation time. Besides, the novel model also produces some interesting self-organization phenomena, such as the collective behavior at the beginning of the evacuation and arch-like blocking at the end of the evacuation. When our model is finally applied to the evacuation scenario where a room has two symmetrically located exits, the symmetry breaking effect takes place. Our model may shed new light to the study of pedestrian dynamics in realistic world. In this paper we present a model based on the parallel computational tool of cellular automata CA capable of simulating the process of disembarking in a small airplane seat layout, corresponding to Airbus A320 Boeing 737 layout, in search of ways to make it faster and safer under normal evacuation conditions, as well as emergency scenarios. The proposed model is highly customizable, with the number of exits, the walking speed of passengers, depending on their sex, age and height, and the effects of retrieving and carrying luggage. Additionally, the presence of obstacles in the aisles as well as the emergence of panic being parameters whose values can be varied in order to enlighten the disembarking and emergency evacuation processes are considered in detail. The simulation results were compared to existing aircraft disembarking and evacuation times and indicate the efficacy of the proposed model in investigating and revealing passenger attributes during these processes in all the examined cases. Moreover, we parallelized our code in order to run on a graphics processing unit GPU using the CUDA programming language, speeding up the simulation process. Finally, in order to present a fully dynamical anticipative real-time system helpful for decision-making we implemented the proposed CA model in a field programmable gate array FPGA device, and recreated the results given by the software simulations in a fraction of the time. We then compared and exported the performance results among a sequential software implementation, the implementation running on a GPU, and a hardware implementation, proving the consequent acceleration that results from the parallel CA implementation in specific hardware. Preface.- Dedication.- Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics Awards.- Five Grand Challenges in Pedestrian and Evacuation Dynamics.- Data Collection (Evacuation).- Data Collection (Pedestrian).- Data Collection (Vulnerable Groups).- Data Collection (Transport).- Data Collection Methods.- Theory for Models.- General Model Development.- Large-scale Modeling.- Transport Modeling.- Modeling Methods.- Model Calibration Validation.- Vertical Egress.- Regulations Engineering Guidance.- Posters Abstract This paper explores the likely behaviours of train passengers in an emergency evacuation and examines four crucial theoretical issues on the passengers’ evacuation, including reactive vs. proactive behaviours, cooperative vs. competitive behaviours, symmetry breaking, and route exit choice. A survey of 1134 train passengers shows that respondents are not homogeneous in their likely behaviours. Overall, they are more likely to be reactive (e.g., wait for instruction from station staff) than proactive (e.g., move to exit) in an emergency situation. We also find that people are more likely to be co-operative (e.g., helping other people) than competitive (e.g., push other passengers). Although passengers are likely to show herding or symmetry breaking behaviour (e.g., following other passengers) than symmetric behaviour (e.g., choose least crowded exit), the degree of symmetry breaking behaviour is not as high as assumed in previous mathematical models. They are also unlikely to use escalators, lifts and train tunnels in their exit route choice during an emergency escape. In terms of demographic differences in behaviours, results from the ordered logit models demonstrate that there are significant differences in the evacuation behaviours between males and females but not among the different age groups. Besides providing valuable information for developing mathematical models intended to simulate passengers’ evacuation in a train station, our findings can assist managers of emergency response in developing appropriate strategies and training, and in designing solutions and education campaigns for effective evacuation. The objective of this study is the development of a computer simulation model for pedestrian movement in architectural and urban space. The characteristic of the model is the ability to visualize the movement of each pedestrian in a plan as an animation. So architects and designers can easily find and understand the problems in their design projects. In this model, the movement of each pedestrian is simulated by the motion of a magnetized object in a magnetic field. Positive magnetic pole is given to each pedestrian and obstacles like walls and columns. Negative magnetic pole is located at the goal of pedestrians. Each pedestrian moves to his goal by the attractive force caused by the negative magnetic pole at his goal, avoiding collisions with other pedestrians and obstacles by repulsive forces caused by the positive magnetic poles. The effectiveness of the simulation model is shown by the following two kinds of simulation examples. (1) Evacuation from an office building In this model pedestrians walk along the route from each starting point to the exit in case of evacuation. The example shows the places where stagnations and heavy congestions occur, and designers can see if the evacuation routes are appropriate. (2) Movement of pedestrians in queue spaces Three types of queuing behavior is classified in this model: movement in front of counters, movement passing through ratches, and movement of getting on and off in elevator halls. Simulation examples in a railway station and in a main floor of a resort hotel are shown where several kinds of queue spaces are included and complicated movements of hundreds of pedestrians occur. Hajj is one of the largest mass gatherings where Muslims from all over the world gather in Makah each year for pilgrimage. A mass assembly of such scale bears a huge risk of disaster either natural or man-made. In the past few years, thousands of casualties have occurred while performing different Hajj rituals, especially during the Circumambulation of Kaba (Tawaf) due to stampede or chaos. During such calamitous situations, an appropriate evacuation strategy can help resolve the problem and mitigate further risk of causalities. It is however a daunting research problem to identify an optimal course of action based on several constraints. Modeling and analyzing such a problem of real-time and spatially explicit complexity requires a microscale crowd simulation and analysis framework. Which not only allows the modeler to express the spatial dimensions and features of the environment in real scale, but also provides modalities to capture complex crowd behaviors. In this paper, we propose an Agent-based Crowd Simulation & Analysis framework that incorporates the use of Anylogic Pedestrian library and integrates interoperate Anylogic Simulation environment with the external modules for optimization and analysis. Hence provides a runtime environment for analyzing complex situations, e.g., emergency evacuation strategies. The key features of the proposed framework include: (i) Ability to model large crowd in a spatially explicit environment at real-scale; (ii) Simulation of complex crowd behavior such as emergency evacuation; (iii) Interoperability of optimization and analysis modules with simulation runtime for evaluating evacuation strategies. We present a case study of Hajj scenario as a proof of concept and a test bed for identifying and evaluating optimal strategies for crowd evacuation Opportunistic communications (oppcomms) use low-cost human wearable mobile nodes allowing the exchange of packets at a close range of a few to some tens of meters with limited or no infrastructure. Typically cheap pocket devices which are IEEE 802.15.4-2006 compliant can be used and they can communicate at 2m to 10m range, with local computational capabilities and some local memory. In this paper we consider the application of such devices to emergency situations when other means of communication have broken down. This paper evaluates whether oppcomms can improve the outcome of emergency evacuation in directing civilians safely. We describe an autonomous emergency support system (ESS) based on oppcomms to support evacuation of civilians in a built environment such as a building or supermarket. The proposed system uses a fixed infrastructure of sensor nodes (SNs) to monitor the environment. Hazard information obtained via SNs is disseminated to the individuals, and they spread among the people who are located in this built environment using oppcomm devices carried by these people. The information received by these people can then guide them safely to the exits as the emergency situation evolves over time. We evaluate our scheme using a distributed multi-agent building evacuation simulator (DBES) in the context of evacuation scenarios of a multi-storey office building in the presence of a fire that is spreading. The results show the degree of improvement that the oppcomms can offer. c � 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd. Assume that two robots are located at the centre of a unit disk. Their goal is to evacuate from the disk through an exit at an unknown location on the boundary of the disk. At any time the robots can move anywhere they choose on the disk, independently of each other, with maximum speed @math . The robots can cooperate by exchanging information whenever they meet. We study algorithms for the two robots to minimize the evacuation time: the time when both robots reach the exit. In [CGGKMP14] the authors gave an algorithm defining trajectories for the two robots yielding evacuation time at most @math and also proved that any algorithm has evacuation time at least @math . We improve both the upper and lower bounds on the evacuation time of a unit disk. Namely, we present a new non-trivial algorithm whose evacuation time is at most @math and show that any algorithm has evacuation time at least @math . To achieve the upper bound, we designed an algorithm which non-intuitively proposes a forced meeting between the two robots, even if the exit has not been found by either of them. Assume that two robots are located at the centre of a unit disk. Their goal is to evacuate from the disk through an exit at an unknown location on the boundary of the disk. At any time the robots can move anywhere they choose on the disk, independently of each other, with maximum speed @math . The robots can cooperate by exchanging information whenever they meet. We study algorithms for the two robots to minimize the evacuation time: the time when both robots reach the exit. In [9] the authors gave an algorithm defining trajectories for the two robots yielding evacuation time at most @math and also proved that any algorithm has evacuation time at least @math . We improve both the upper and lower bounds on the evacuation time of a unit disk. Namely, we present a new non-trivial algorithm whose evacuation time is at most @math and show that any algorithm has evacuation time at least @math . To achieve the upper bound, we designed an algorithm which non-intuitively proposes a forced meeting between the two robots, even if the exit has not been found by either of them. The study of crowd dynamics is interesting because of the various self-organization phenomena resulting from the interactions of many pedestrians, which may improve or obstruct their flow. Besides formation of lanes of uniform walking direction and oscillations at bottlenecks at moderate densities, it was recently discovered that stop-and-go waves [D. , Phys. Rev. Lett. 97 (2006) 168001] and a phenomenon called "crowd turbulence" can occur at high pedestrian densities [D. , Phys. Rev. E 75 (2007) 046109]. Although the behavior of pedestrian crowds under extreme conditions is decisive for the safety of crowds during the access to or egress from mass events as well as for situations of emergency evacuation, there is still a lack of empirical studies of extreme crowding. Therefore, this paper discusses how one may study high-density conditions based on suitable video data. This is illustrated at the example of pilgrim flows entering the previous Jamarat Bridge in Mina, 5 kilometers from the Holy Mosque in Makkah, Saudi-Arabia. Our results reveal previously unexpected pattern formation phenomena and show that the average individual speed does not go to zero even at local densities of 10 persons per square meter. Since the maximum density and flow are different from measurements in other countries, this has implications for the capacity assessment and dimensioning of facilities for mass events. When conditions become congested, the flow drops significantly, which can cause stop-and-go waves and a further increase of the density until critical crowd conditions are reached. Then, "crowd turbulence" sets in, which may trigger crowd disasters. For this reason, it is important to operate pedestrian facilities sufficiently below their maximum capacity and to take measures to improve crowd safety, some of which are discussed in the end. This paper proposes a group-based framework with dedicated path planning for emergency guiding based on Internet of Things (IoT) technologies. The proposed framework can model the spatiotemporal mobility of indoor people to determine and relieve the congestion of corridors and exits. A dedicated path can be determined to provide the shortest evacuation time for each group of nearby people. The corridor and exit capacities, corridor lengths, clustering motion of a group, concurrent moving of different groups, and up-to-date distribution of group people are considered together to accurately estimate the evacuation time for each group. Based on the estimated evacuation time, evacuation load can be evenly distributed among corridors and exits to alleviate the congestion of all corridors and exits for minimizing total evacuation time. The performance of the proposed framework is evaluated by conducting mathematical analysis and computer simulations, which outperforms existing schemes and can achieve the shortest evacuation time for group-based emergency guiding. In addition, an Android-based prototype with indoor IoT localization technologies is implemented to verify the feasibility of our framework. Starting with a short review of the available literature in the field of pedestrian and evacuation research, an overview is given over the observed collective phenomena in pedestrian crowds. This includes lane formation in corridors and oscillations at bottlenecks in normal situations, while different kinds of blocked states are produced in panic situations. By means of molecular-dynamic-like microsimulations based on a generalized force model of interactive pedestrian dynamics, the spatio-temporal patterns in pedestrian crowds are successfully reproduced and interpreted as self-organized phenomena. In contrast to previous socio-psychological approaches, this allows a physical understanding of the observations. Despite the significantly different phenomena occuring in normal and panic situations, the main effects can be described by a unified model containing only well interpretable and plausible terms. The transition between the “rational” normal behavior and the apparently “irrational” panic behavior is controlled by a single parameter, the “nervousness”, which influences fluctuation strengths, desired speeds, and the tendency of herding. Thereby, it causes paradoxial effects like “freezing by heating”, “faster is slower”, and the ignorance of available exits. Nevertheless, there are measures to improve pedestrian flows, both in normal and panic situations. For example, the suitable placement of columns can help, although they reduce the accessible space. Emergency rescues require that first responders provide support to evacuate injured and other civilians who are obstructed by the hazards. In this case, the emergency personnel can take actions strategically in order to rescue people maximally, efficiently and quickly. The paper studies the effectiveness of a random neural network (RNN)-based task assignment algorithm involving optimally matching emergency personnel and injured civilians, so that the emergency personnel can aid trapped people to move towards evacuation exits in real-time. The evaluations are run on a decision support evacuation system using the Distributed Building Evacuation Simulator (DBES) multi-agent platform in various emergency scenarios. The simulation results indicate that the RNN-based task assignment algorithm provides a near-optimal solution to resource allocation problems, which avoids resource wastage and improves the efficiency of the emergency rescue process. Emergency evacuation from airports is an important consideration given the continuing occurrence of both natural and human caused disasters. Unfortunately, the traditional evacuation-drill approach to prepare for emergency situations presents several practical challenges at the scale and magnitude required for airports. In this paper, we present an agent-based model (ABM) called exitus which is capable of determining the extent to which collective behavior and overall evacuation time of passenger groups is affected by changes in the built environment for large, complex structures. The model is unique because it explicitly considers the physical and psychological characteristics of individuals with disabilities. In our first experiment, several bomb simulation scenarios were conducted at an international airport using exitus. Several important findings were revealed including: 1) the importance of stairway and exit configurations; 2) the inherent weaknesses of the pier airport design in affecting timely evacuations; 3) who the most vulnerable groups of people are; 4) the particular risk engendered from crowded or complex building interiors for individuals with disabilities; and 5) the potential problems caused by locating explosive detection system machines near passenger processing areas. The results of a second exploratory experiment also revealed the importance of realistically modeling psychological attributes of individuals with disabilities and their potential impact on collective evacuation performance. Overall the findings demonstrated the model’s ability to generate a common operational picture capable of guiding preparedness efforts for both public and private organizations encompassing a wide variety of professional endeavor. The evacuation of a building is a challenging problem, since the evacuees most of the times do not know or do not follow the optimal evacuation route. Especially during an ongoing hazard present in the building, finding the best evacuation route becomes harder as the conditions along the paths change in the course of the evacuation procedure. In this paper we propose a distributed system that will compute the best evacuation routes in real-time, while a hazard is spreading inside the building. The system is composed of a network of decision nodes and sensor nodes, positioned in specific locations inside the building. The recommendations of the decision nodes are computed in a distributed manner, at each of the decision nodes, which then communicate them to evacuees or rescue personnel located in their vicinity. We evaluate our proposed system in various emergency scenarios, using a multi-agent simulation platform for Building Evacuation. Our results indicate that the presence of the system improves the outcome of the evacuation with respect to the evacuation time and the injury level of the evacuees. In urban environments traffic safety is primarily determined by the successful interaction between road users. In order to define behavioral requirements for future autonomous vehicles, an understanding of these interactions is needed. Therefore this paper analyzes the interaction between drivers and pedestrians at crosswalks from both the driver's and the pedestrian's perspective. A study with driving experiments in real-life traffic was conducted. The study not only investigates how drivers respond to pedestrians who intend to use the crosswalk, but also their response to pedestrians who waive their right-of-way. An analysis of recorded driving and video data identified typical behavior patterns of drivers approaching a crosswalk, as well as of pedestrians crossing on it. Supplemented by questionnaires filled in by drivers and pedestrians, we determined factors which have a relevant impact on successful driver-pedestrian interaction. We confirmed that with higher initial speeds, drivers tend to exhibit more anticipatory driving behavior. Contrary to previous studies, the presented results show a significant influence of the vehicle's speed on the pedestrian's decision process. The gained insights into the driver-pedestrian interaction process provide an opportunity to develop autonomous driving functions with a cooperative driving behavior that conforms to the expectations of both pedestrians and vehicle occupants. The main purpose of this work is to present a formulation of the building evacuation problem that incorporates evacuation routes and applies the functions developed by Nelson and McLennan [H.E. Nelson, H.A. McLennan (Eds.), Emergency Movement, The SFPE Handbook of Fire Protection Engineering, 1996, pp. 3.286-3.295 (Section 3 Chapter 14)] to model the movement of people. These considerations lead to significant changes in the form of the evacuation and inverse evacuation functions, so it is necessary to develop a new procedure for solving the building evacuation problem. Information systems that provide decision support in an efficient and timely manner can prove beneficial for emergency response operations. In this paper we propose the use of a system that provides movement decision support to evacuees by directing them through the shortest or less hazardous routes to the exit and evaluate it with a specialised software platform that we have developed for simulation of disasters in buildings. The system operates in a distributed manner, and computes the best evacuation routes in real-time while a hazard is spreading inside the building. It is composed of a network of decision nodes and sensor nodes, positioned in specific locations inside the building. The recommendations of the decision nodes are computed in a distributed manner, at each of the decision nodes, which then communicate them to evacuees or rescue personnel located in their vicinity. We use a multi-agent simulation platform for Building Evacuation that we developed, in order to evaluate our proposed system in various emergency scenarios. Our simulation results show that the overall outcome of the evacuation procedure is improved when the decision support system is in operation. This paper establishes what might be called a "uniformity principle" for building evacuation problems. The principle may be stated as follows: given a building for which each occupant has reasonable access to every evacuation route, if the building is evacuated in minimum time, then the allocation of evacuees to routes is such that the route evacuation times are all the same. That is, there is a uniformity of route evacuation times. Also, analytical expressions for the minimum time to evacuate a building, and for the corresponding allocation of evacuees to routes, are obtained. The Peer-to-Peer (P2P) architecture has been successfully used to reduce costs and increase the scalability of Internet live streaming systems. However, the effectiveness of these applications depends largely on user (peer) cooperation. In this article we use data collected from SopCast, a popular P2P live application, to show that there is high correlation between peer centrality--out-degree, out-closeness, and betweenness--in the P2P overlay graph and peer cooperation. We use this finding to propose a new regression-based model to predict peer cooperation from its past centrality. Our model takes only peer out-degrees as input, as out-degree has the strongest correlation with peer cooperation. Our evaluation shows that our model has good accuracy and does not need to be trained too often (e.g., once each 16 min). We also use our model to sketch a mechanism to detect malicious peers that report artificially inflated cooperation aiming at, for example, receiving better quality of service.