Mobile Context-Aware Recommender Systems can be naturally modelled as an exploration exploitation trade-off (exr exp) problem, where the system has to choose between maximizing its expected rewards dealing with its current knowledge (exploitation) and learning more about the unknown user's preferences to improve its knowledge (exploration). This problem has been addressed by the reinforcement learning community but they do not consider the risk level of the current user's situation, where it may be dangerous to recommend items the user may not desire in her current situation if the risk level is high. We introduce in this paper an algorithm named R-UCB that considers the risk level of the user's situation to adaptively balance between exr and exp. The detailed analysis of the experimental results reveals several important discoveries in the exr exp behaviour.
In contrast to the unguided exploration strategy adopted by @math -greedy, another class of algorithms, known as UCB, use a smarter way to balance exr and exp. We can cite UCB methods in @cite_21 for rewards bounded in [0, 1] and the Price Of Knowledge Expected Reward (POKER) strategy @cite_4 for normally distributed rewards.
@cite_21 @cite_4
2168405694 1516061453
Multi-armed bandit (MAB) is a class of online learning problems where a learning agent aims to maximize its expected cumulative reward while repeatedly selecting to pull arms with unknown reward distributions. In this paper, we consider a scenario in which the arms' reward distributions may change in a piecewise-stationary fashion at unknown time steps. By connecting change-detection techniques with classic UCB algorithms, we motivate and propose a learning algorithm called M-UCB, which can detect and adapt to changes, for the considered scenario. We also establish an @math regret bound for M-UCB, where @math is the number of time steps, @math is the number of arms, and @math is the number of stationary segments. and @math is the gap between the expected rewards of the optimal and best suboptimal arms. Comparison with the best available lower bound shows that M-UCB is nearly optimal in @math up to a logarithmic factor. We also compare M-UCB with state-of-the-art algorithms in a numerical experiment based on a public Yahoo! dataset. In this experiment, M-UCB achieves about @math regret reduction with respect to the best performing state-of-the-art algorithm. Multi-armed bandit problems are considered as a paradigm of the trade-off between exploring the environment to find profitable actions and exploiting what is already known. In the stationary case, the distributions of the rewards do not change in time, Upper-Confidence Bound (UCB) policies have been shown to be rate optimal. A challenging variant of the MABP is the non-stationary bandit problem where the gambler must decide which arm to play while facing the possibility of a changing environment. In this paper, we consider the situation where the distributions of rewards remain constant over epochs and change at unknown time instants. We analyze two algorithms: the discounted UCB and the sliding-window UCB. We establish for these two algorithms an upper-bound for the expected regret by upper-bounding the expectation of the number of times a suboptimal arm is played. For that purpose, we derive a Hoeffding type inequality for self normalized deviations with a random number of summands. We establish a lower-bound for the regret in presence of abrupt changes in the arms reward distributions. We show that the discounted UCB and the sliding-window UCB both match the lower-bound up to a logarithmic factor. Many problems, such as cognitive radio, parameter control of a scanning tunnelling microscope or internet advertisement, can be modelled as non-stationary bandit problems where the distributions of rewards changes abruptly at unknown time instants. In this paper, we analyze two algorithms designed for solving this issue: discounted UCB (D-UCB) and sliding-window UCB (SW-UCB). We establish an upperbound for the expected regret by upper-bounding the expectation of the number of times suboptimal arms are played. The proof relies on an interesting Hoeffding type inequality for self normalized deviations with a random number of summands. We establish a lower-bound for the regret in presence of abrupt changes in the arms reward distributions. We show that the discounted UCB and the sliding-window UCB both match the lower-bound up to a logarithmic factor. Numerical simulations show that D-UCB and SW-UCB perform significantly better than existing soft-max methods like EXP3.S. This paper presents a finite-time analysis of the KL-UCB algorithm, an online, horizon-free index policy for stochastic bandit problems. We prove two distinct results: first, for arbitrary bounded rewards, the KL-UCB algorithm satisfies a uniformly better regret bound than UCB or UCB2; second, in the special case of Bernoulli rewards, it reaches the lower bound of Lai and Robbins. Furthermore, we show that simple adaptations of the KL-UCB algorithm are also optimal for specific classes of (possibly unbounded) rewards, including those generated from exponential families of distributions. A large-scale numerical study comparing KL-UCB with its main competitors (UCB, UCB2, UCB-Tuned, UCB-V, DMED) shows that KL-UCB is remarkably efficient and stable, including for short time horizons. KL-UCB is also the only method that always performs better than the basic UCB policy. Our regret bounds rely on deviations results of independent interest which are stated and proved in the Appendix. As a by-product, we also obtain an improved regret bound for the standard UCB algorithm. This paper considers the use of a simple posterior sampling algorithm to balance between exploration and exploitation when learning to optimize actions such as in multi-armed bandit problems. The algorithm, also known as Thompson Sampling, offers significant advantages over the popular upper confidence bound (UCB) approach, and can be applied to problems with finite or infinite action spaces and complicated relationships among action rewards. We make two theoretical contributions. The first establishes a connection between posterior sampling and UCB algorithms. This result lets us convert regret bounds developed for UCB algorithms into Bayesian regret bounds for posterior sampling. Our second theoretical contribution is a Bayesian regret bound for posterior sampling that applies broadly and can be specialized to many model classes. This bound depends on a new notion we refer to as the eluder dimension, which measures the degree of dependence among action rewards. Compared to UCB algorithm Bayesian regret bounds for specific model classes, our general bound matches the best available for linear models and is stronger than the best available for generalized linear models. Further, our analysis provides insight into performance advantages of posterior sampling, which are highlighted through simulation results that demonstrate performance surpassing recently proposed UCB algorithms. We study contextual bandits with budget and time constraints, referred to as constrained contextual bandits.The time and budget constraints significantly complicate the exploration and exploitation tradeoff because they introduce complex coupling among contexts over time.Such coupling effects make it difficult to obtain oracle solutions that assume known statistics of bandits. To gain insight, we first study unit-cost systems with known context distribution. When the expected rewards are known, we develop an approximation of the oracle, referred to Adaptive-Linear-Programming (ALP), which achieves near-optimality and only requires the ordering of expected rewards. With these highly desirable features, we then combine ALP with the upper-confidence-bound (UCB) method in the general case where the expected rewards are unknown a priori . We show that the proposed UCB-ALP algorithm achieves logarithmic regret except for certain boundary cases. Further, we design algorithms and obtain similar regret analysis results for more general systems with unknown context distribution and heterogeneous costs. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that shows how to achieve logarithmic regret in constrained contextual bandits. Moreover, this work also sheds light on the study of computationally efficient algorithms for general constrained contextual bandits. The multi-armed bandit problem for a gambler is to decide which arm of a K-slot machine to pull to maximize his total reward in a series of trials. Many real-world learning and optimization problems can be modeled in this way. Several strategies or algorithms have been proposed as a solution to this problem in the last two decades, but, to our knowledge, there has been no common evaluation of these algorithms. This paper provides a preliminary empirical evaluation of several multi-armed bandit algorithms. It also describes and analyzes a new algorithm, Poker (Price Of Knowledge and Estimated Reward) whose performance compares favorably to that of other existing algorithms in several experiments. One remarkable outcome of our experiments is that the most naive approach, the e-greedy strategy, proves to be often hard to beat. We tackle the problem of online reward maximisation over a large finite set of actions described by their contexts. We focus on the case when the number of actions is too big to sample all of them even once. However we assume that we have access to the similarities between actions' contexts and that the expected reward is an arbitrary linear function of the contexts' images in the related reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). We propose KernelUCB, a kernelised UCB algorithm, and give a cumulative regret bound through a frequentist analysis. For contextual bandits, the related algorithm GP-UCB turns out to be a special case of our algorithm, and our finite-time analysis improves the regret bound of GP-UCB for the agnostic case, both in the terms of the kernel-dependent quantity and the RKHS norm of the reward function. Moreover, for the linear kernel, our regret bound matches the lower bound for contextual linear bandits. We consider the sequential Bayesian optimization problem with bandit feedback, adopting a formulation that allows for the reward function to vary with time. We model the reward function using a Gaussian process whose evolution obeys a simple Markov model. We introduce two natural extensions of the classical Gaussian process upper confidence bound (GP-UCB) algorithm. The first, R-GP-UCB, resets GP-UCB at regular intervals. The second, TV-GP-UCB, instead forgets about old data in a smooth fashion. Our main contribution comprises of novel regret bounds for these algorithms, providing an explicit characterization of the trade-off between the time horizon and the rate at which the function varies. We illustrate the performance of the algorithms on both synthetic and real data, and we find the gradual forgetting of TV-GP-UCB to perform favorably compared to the sharp resetting of R-GP-UCB. Moreover, both algorithms significantly outperform classical GP-UCB, since it treats stale and fresh data equally. In the stochastic multi-armed bandit problem we consider a modification of the UCB algorithm of [4]. For this modified algorithm we give an improved bound on the regret with respect to the optimal reward. While for the original UCB algorithm the regret in K-armed bandits after T trials is bounded by const · ( K (T) ), where Δ measures the distance between a suboptimal arm and the optimal arm, for the modified UCB algorithm we show an upper bound on the regret of const · ( K (T ^2 ) ). In this paper, we study the stochastic combinatorial multi-armed bandit (CMAB) framework that allows a general nonlinear reward function, whose expected value may not depend only on the means of the input random variables but possibly on the entire distributions of these variables. Our framework enables a much larger class of reward functions such as the @math function and nonlinear utility functions. Existing techniques relying on accurate estimations of the means of random variables, such as the upper confidence bound (UCB) technique, do not work directly on these functions. We propose a new algorithm called stochastically dominant confidence bound (SDCB), which estimates the distributions of underlying random variables and their stochastically dominant confidence bounds. We prove that SDCB can achieve @math distribution-dependent regret and @math distribution-independent regret, where @math is the time horizon. We apply our results to the @math -MAX problem and expected utility maximization problems. In particular, for @math -MAX, we provide the first polynomial-time approximation scheme (PTAS) for its offline problem, and give the first @math bound on the @math -approximation regret of its online problem, for any @math . In this paper, we study the stochastic combinatorial multi-armed bandit (CMAB) framework that allows a general nonlinear reward function, whose expected value may not depend only on the means of the input random variables but possibly on the entire distributions of these variables. Our framework enables a much larger class of reward functions such as the max() function and nonlinear utility functions. Existing techniques relying on accurate estimations of the means of random variables, such as the upper confidence bound (UCB) technique, do not work directly on these functions. We propose a new algorithm called stochastically dominant confidence bound (SDCB), which estimates the distributions of underlying random variables and their stochastically dominant confidence bounds. We prove that SDCB can achieve O(log T) distribution-dependent regret and O(√T) distribution-independent regret, where T is the time horizon. We apply our results to the K-MAX problem and expected utility maximization problems. In particular, for K-MAX, we provide the first polynomial-time approximation scheme (PTAS) for its offline problem, and give the first O(√T) bound on the (1 — e)-approximation regret of its online problem, for any e > 0. We consider the problem of selecting, from among the arms of a stochastic n-armed bandit, a subset of size m of those arms with the highest expected rewards, based on efficiently sampling the arms. This "subset selection" problem finds application in a variety of areas. In the authors' previous work (Kalyanakrishnan & Stone, 2010), this problem is framed under a PAC setting (denoted "Explore-m"), and corresponding sampling algorithms are analyzed. Whereas the formal analysis therein is restricted to the worst case sample complexity of algorithms, in this paper, we design and analyze an algorithm ("LUCB") with improved expected sample complexity. Interestingly LUCB bears a close resemblance to the well-known UCB algorithm for regret minimization. The expected sample complexity bound we show for LUCB is novel even for single-arm selection (Explore-1). We also give a lower bound on the worst case sample complexity of PAC algorithms for Explore-m. We consider stochastic multi-armed bandits where the expected reward is a unimodal function over partially ordered arms. This important class of problems has been recently investigated in (Cope 2009, Yu 2011). The set of arms is either discrete, in which case arms correspond to the vertices of a finite graph whose structure represents similarity in rewards, or continuous, in which case arms belong to a bounded interval. For discrete unimodal bandits, we derive asymptotic lower bounds for the regret achieved under any algorithm, and propose OSUB, an algorithm whose regret matches this lower bound. Our algorithm optimally exploits the unimodal structure of the problem, and surprisingly, its asymptotic regret does not depend on the number of arms. We also provide a regret upper bound for OSUB in non-stationary environments where the expected rewards smoothly evolve over time. The analytical results are supported by numerical experiments showing that OSUB performs significantly better than the state-of-the-art algorithms. For continuous sets of arms, we provide a brief discussion. We show that combining an appropriate discretization of the set of arms with the UCB algorithm yields an order-optimal regret, and in practice, outperforms recently proposed algorithms designed to exploit the unimodal structure. We consider the problem of learning in single-player and multiplayer multiarmed bandit models. Bandit problems are classes of online learning problems that capture exploration versus exploitation tradeoffs. In a multiarmed bandit model, players can pick among many arms, and each play of an arm generates an i.i.d. reward from an unknown distribution. The objective is to design a policy that maximizes the expected reward over a time horizon for a single player setting and the sum of expected rewards for the multiplayer setting. In the multiplayer setting, arms may give different rewards to different players. There is no separate channel for coordination among the players. Any attempt at communication is costly and adds to regret. We propose two decentralizable policies, @math ( @math - @math ) and @math - @math , that can be used in both single player and multiplayer settings. These policies are shown to yield expected regret that grows at most as O( @math ). It is well known that @math is the lower bound on the rate of growth of regret even in a centralized case. The proposed algorithms improve on prior work where regret grew at O( @math ). More fundamentally, these policies address the question of additional cost incurred in decentralized online learning, suggesting that there is at most an @math -factor cost in terms of order of regret. This solves a problem of relevance in many domains and had been open for a while. We consider the problem of learning in single-player and multiplayer multiarmed bandit models. Bandit problems are classes of online learning problems that capture exploration versus exploitation tradeoffs. In a multiarmed bandit model, players can pick among many arms, and each play of an arm generates an i.i.d. reward from an unknown distribution. The objective is to design a policy that maximizes the expected reward over a time horizon for a single-player setting and the sum of expected rewards for the multiplayer setting. In the multiplayer setting, arms may give different rewards to different players. There is no separate channel for coordination among the players. Any attempt at communication is costly and adds to regret. We propose two decentralizable policies, @math ( @math - @math ) and @math - @math , that can be used in both single-player and multiplayer settings. These policies are shown to yield expected regret that grows, at most, as @math (and @math under some assumption). It is well known that @math is the lower bound on the rate of growth of regret even in a centralized case. The proposed algorithms improve on prior work where regret grew at @math . More fundamentally, these policies address the question of additional cost incurred in decentralized online learning, suggesting that there is, at most, an @math -factor cost in terms of the order of regret. This solves a problem of relevance in many domains and had been open for a while. In the stochastic knapsack problem, we are given a knapsack of size B, and a set of jobs whose sizes and rewards are drawn from a known probability distribution. However, we know the actual size and reward only when the job completes. How should we schedule jobs to maximize the expected total reward? We know O(1)-approximations when we assume that (i) rewards and sizes are independent random variables, and (ii) we cannot prematurely cancel jobs. What can we say when either or both of these assumptions are changed? The stochastic knapsack problem is of interest in its own right, but techniques developed for it are applicable to other stochastic packing problems. Indeed, ideas for this problem have been useful for budgeted learning problems, where one is given several arms which evolve in a specified stochastic fashion with each pull, and the goal is to pull the arms a total of B times to maximize the reward obtained. Much recent work on this problem focus on the case when the evolution of the arms follows a martingale, i.e., when the expected reward from the future is the same as the reward at the current state. What can we say when the rewards do not form a martingale? In this paper, we give constant-factor approximation algorithms for the stochastic knapsack problem with correlations and or cancellations, and also for budgeted learning problems where the martingale condition is not satisfied. Indeed, we can show that previously proposed LP relaxations have large integrality gaps. We propose new time-indexed LP relaxations, and convert the fractional solutions into distributions over strategies, and then use the LP values and the time ordering information from these strategies to devise a randomized adaptive scheduling algorithm. We hope our LP formulation and decomposition methods may provide a new way to address other correlated bandit problems with more general contexts. We consider structured multi-armed bandit problems based on the Generalized Linear Model (GLM) framework of statistics. For these bandits, we propose a new algorithm, called GLM-UCB. We derive finite time, high probability bounds on the regret of the algorithm, extending previous analyses developed for the linear bandits to the non-linear case. The analysis highlights a key difficulty in generalizing linear bandit algorithms to the non-linear case, which is solved in GLM-UCB by focusing on the reward space rather than on the parameter space. Moreover, as the actual effectiveness of current parameterized bandit algorithms is often poor in practice, we provide a tuning method based on asymptotic arguments, which leads to significantly better practical performance. We present two numerical experiments on real-world data that illustrate the potential of the GLM-UCB approach. In Markov decision processes (MDPs), the variance of the reward-to-go is a natural measure of uncertainty about the long term performance of a policy, and is important in domains such as finance, resource allocation, and process control. Currently however, there is no tractable procedure for calculating it in large scale MDPs. This is in contrast to the case of the expected reward-to-go, also known as the value function, for which effective simulation-based algorithms are known, and have been used successfully in various domains. In this paper we extend temporal difference (TD) learning algorithms to estimating the variance of the reward-to-go for a fixed policy. We propose variants of both TD(0) and LSTD(λ) with linear function approximation, prove their convergence, and demonstrate their utility in an option pricing problem. Our results show a dramatic improvement in terms of sample efficiency over standard Monte-Carlo methods, which are currently the state-of-the-art. We show how an ensemble of @math -functions can be leveraged for more effective exploration in deep reinforcement learning. We build on well established algorithms from the bandit setting, and adapt them to the @math -learning setting. We propose an exploration strategy based on upper-confidence bounds (UCB). Our experiments show significant gains on the Atari benchmark.