This work provides a comprehensive analysis on naturalistic driving behavior for highways based on the highD data set. Two thematic fields are considered. First, some macroscopic and microscopic traffic statistics are provided. These include the traffic flow rate and the traffic density, as well as velocity, acceleration and distance distributions. Additionally, the dependencies to each other are examined and compared to related work. The second part investigates the distributions of criticality measures. The Time-To-Collision, Time-Headway and a third measure, which couples both, are analyzed. These measures are also combined with other indicators. Scenarios, in which these measures reach a critical level, are separately discussed. The results are compared to related work as well. The two main contributions of this work can be stated as follows. First, the analysis on the criticality measures can be used to find suitable thresholds for rare traffic scenarios. Second, the statistics provided in this work can also be utilized for traffic modeling, for example in simulation environments.
A survey on motion prediction and risk assessment considers various aspects on motion prediction and the risk definition. The authors highlight, that the risk definition is influenced by the choice of the motion model @cite_11 . Besides deterministic risk indicators like TTC, which assume a collision, probabilistic measures are discussed as well. The probabilistic collision predictions take the uncertainty of the predicted trajectories of the human driven ego vehicle and the surrounding objects into account.
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With the objective to improve road safety, the automotive industry is moving toward more “intelligent” vehicles. One of the major challenges is to detect dangerous situations and react accordingly in order to avoid or mitigate accidents. This requires predicting the likely evolution of the current traffic situation, and assessing how dangerous that future situation might be. This paper is a survey of existing methods for motion prediction and risk assessment for intelligent vehicles. The proposed classification is based on the semantics used to define motion and risk. We point out the tradeoff between model completeness and real-time constraints, and the fact that the choice of a risk assessment method is influenced by the selected motion model. Computer-vision based collision risk assessment is important in collision detection and obstacle avoidance tasks. We present an approach to determine both time to collision (TTC) and collision risk for semi-rigid obstacles from videos obtained with an uncalibrated camera. TTC for a body moving relative to the camera can be calculated using the ratio of its image size and its time derivative. In order to compute this ratio, we utilize the local scale change and motion information obtained from detection and tracking of feature points, wherein lies the chief novelty of our approach. Using the same local scale change and motion information, we also propose a measure of collision risk for obstacles moving along different trajectories relative to the camera optical axis. Using videos of pedestrians captured in a controlled experimental setup, in which ground truth can be established, we demonstrate the accuracy of our TTC and collision risk estimation approach for different walking trajectories. This paper proposes a novel approach to risk assessment at road intersections. Unlike most approaches in the literature, it does not rely on trajectory prediction. Instead, dangerous situations are identified by comparing what drivers intend to do with what they are expected to do. Driver intentions and expectations are estimated from the joint motion of the vehicles, taking into account the layout of the intersection and the traffic rules at the intersection. The proposed approach was evaluated in simulation with two vehicles involved in typical collision scenarios. An analysis of the collision prediction horizon allows to characterize the efficiency of the approach in different situations, as well as the potential of different strategies to avoid an accident after a dangerous situation is detected. The probabilistic prediction of road traffic scenarios is addressed. One result is a probabilistic occupancy of traffic participants, and the other result is the collision risk for autonomous vehicles when executing a planned maneuver. The probabilistic occupancy of surrounding traffic participants helps to plan the maneuver of an autonomous vehicle, whereas the computed collision risk helps to decide if a planned maneuver should be executed. Two methods for the probabilistic prediction are presented and compared: 1) Markov chain abstraction and 2) Monte Carlo simulation. The performance of both methods is evaluated with respect to the prediction of the probabilistic occupancy and the collision risk. For each comparison test, we use the same models that generate the probabilistic behavior of traffic participants, where the generation of these data is not compared with real-world data. However, the results independently show the behavior generation that Markov chains are preferred for the probabilistic occupancy, whereas Monte Carlo simulation is clearly preferred for determining the collision risk. In this paper, we present our approach for collision risk estimation between vehicles. The vehicles are equipped with GPS receivers and communication devices. Our approach consists on using the knowledge given trough communication tool to predict the trajectories of the surrounding vehicles. Based on these trajectories, we identify the configurations of the collisions between vehicles. The risk is calculated using several indicators that are reflecting not only the possible collisions but also the dangerousness of these collisions. Our algorithm is tested on crossroads using scenarios involving real prototypes producing realistic scenarios. The authors propose a Bayesian trajectory prediction and criticality assessment system that allows to reason about imminent collisions of a vehicle several seconds in advance. The authors first infer a distribution of high-level, abstract driving maneuvers such as lane changes, turns, road followings, etc. of all vehicles within the driving scene by modeling the domain in a Bayesian network with both causal and diagnostic evidences. This is followed by maneuver-based, long-term trajectory predictions, which themselves contain random components due to the immanent uncertainty of how drivers execute specific maneuvers. Taking all uncertain predictions of all maneuvers of every vehicle into account, the probability of the ego vehicle colliding at least once within a time span is evaluated via Monte-Carlo simulations and given as a function of the prediction horizon. This serves as the basis for calculating a novel criticality measure, the Time-To-Critical-Collision-Probability (TTCCP) - a generalization of the common Time-To-Collision (TTC) in arbitrary, uncertain, multi-object driving environments and valid for longer prediction horizons. The system is applicable from highly-structured to completely non-structured environments and additionally allows the prediction of vehicles not behaving according to a specific maneuver class. The article deals with the analysis and interpretation of dynamic scenes typical of urban driving. The key objective is to assess risks of collision for the ego-vehicle. We describe our concept and methods, which we have integrated and tested on our experimental platform on a Lexus car and a driving simulator. The on-board sensors deliver visual, telemetric and inertial data for environment monitoring. The sensor fusion uses our Bayesian Occupancy Filter for a spatio-temporal grid representation of the traffic scene. The underlying probabilistic approach is capable of dealing with uncertainties when modeling the environment as well as detecting and tracking dynamic objects. The collision risks are estimated as stochastic variables and are predicted for a short period ahead with the use of Hidden Markov Models and Gaussian processes. The software implementation takes advantage of our methods, which allow for parallel computation. Our tests have proven the relevance and feasibility of our approach for improving the safety of car driving. In this work, a framework for motion prediction of vehicles and safety assessment of traffic scenes is presented. The developed framework can be used for driver assistant systems as well as for autonomous driving applications. In order to assess the safety of the future trajectories of the vehicle, these systems require a prediction of the future motion of all traffic participants. As the traffic participants have a mutual influence on each other, the interaction of them is explicitly considered in this framework, which is inspired by an optimization problem. Taking the mutual influence of traffic participants into account, this framework differs from the existing approaches which consider the interaction only insufficiently, suffering reliability in real traffic scenes. For motion prediction, the collision probability of a vehicle performing a certain maneuver, is computed. Based on the safety evaluation and the assumption that drivers avoid collisions, the prediction is realized. Simulation scenarios and real-world results show the functionality. Recent advances in Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV) technology have facilitated the collection of oceanographic data at a fraction of the cost of ship-based sampling methods. Unlike oceanographic data collection in the deep ocean, operation of AUVs in coastal regions exposes them to the risk of collision with ships and land. Such concerns are particularly prominent for slow-moving AUVs since ocean current magnitudes are often strong enough to alter the planned path significantly. Prior work using predictive ocean currents relies upon deterministic outcomes, which do not account for the uncertainty in the ocean current predictions themselves. To improve the safety and reliability of AUV operation in coastal regions, we introduce two stochastic planners: (a) a Minimum Expected Risk planner and (b) a risk-aware Markov Decision Process, both of which have the ability to utilize ocean current predictions probabilistically. We report results from extensive simulation studies in realistic ocean current fields obtained from widely used regional ocean models. Our simulations show that the proposed planners have lower collision risk than state-of-the-art methods. We present additional results from field experiments where ocean current predictions were used to plan the paths of two Slocum gliders. Field trials indicate the practical usefulness of our techniques over long-term deployments, showing them to be ideal for AUV operations. Predicting other traffic participants trajectories is a crucial task for an autonomous vehicle, in order to avoid collisions on its planned trajectory. It is also necessary for many Advanced Driver Assistance Systems, where the ego-vehicle's trajectory has to be predicted too. Even if trajectory prediction is not a deterministic task, it is possible to point out the most likely trajectory. This paper presents a new trajectory prediction method which combines a trajectory prediction based on Constant Yaw Rate and Acceleration motion model and a trajectory prediction based on maneuver recognition. It takes benefit on the accuracy of both predictions respectively a short-term and long-term. The defined Maneuver Recognition Module selects the current maneuver from a predefined set by comparing the center lines of the road's lanes to a local curvilinear model of the path of the vehicle. The overall approach was tested on prerecorded human real driving data and results show that the Maneuver Recognition Module has a high success rate and that the final trajectory prediction has a better accuracy. For safe and reliable autonomous driving systems, prediction of surrounding vehicles' future behavior and potential risks are critical. The state-of-the-art prediction algorithms tend to show limited performance on long-term predictions due to their deterministic nature. In this paper, a probabilistic lateral motion prediction algorithm is proposed based on multilayer perceptron (MLP) approach. The MLP model consists of two parts; target lane and trajectory models. In order to develop an intuitive and accurate prediction algorithm, a lane-based trajectory prediction model is introduced based on the fact that vehicles drive within a lane except for during lane changes. More specifically, a set of three representative trajectories with different levels of lane-change positions are generated for each target lane, and real-world traffic data is categorized by each trajectory for MLP training. These target lane and trajectory models enable the stochastic MLP modeling and training. The proposed MLP model outputs probabilities of how likely a vehicle will follow each trajectory and each lane for a given input of vehicle position history including current position. For training the MLP model, Next Generation Simulation traffic data are used. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm detects lane-changes one to one and a half second earlier than existing methods and three seconds before lane crossing with about ninety percentages accuracy. Object tracking typically relies on a dynamic model to predict the object's location from its past trajectory. In crowded scenarios a strong dynamic model is particularly important, because more accurate predictions allow for smaller search regions, which greatly simplifies data association. Traditional dynamic models predict the location for each target solely based on its own history, without taking into account the remaining scene objects. Collisions are resolved only when they happen. Such an approach ignores important aspects of human behavior: people are driven by their future destination, take into account their environment, anticipate collisions, and adjust their trajectories at an early stage in order to avoid them. In this work, we introduce a model of dynamic social behavior, inspired by models developed for crowd simulation. The model is trained with videos recorded from birds-eye view at busy locations, and applied as a motion model for multi-people tracking from a vehicle-mounted camera. Experiments on real sequences show that accounting for social interactions and scene knowledge improves tracking performance, especially during occlusions. While human behavior prediction can increase the capability of a robotic partner to generate anticipatory behavior during physical human robot interaction (pHRI), predictions in uncertain situations can lead to large disturbances for the human if they do not match the human intentions. In this paper we present a novel control concept in which the assistive control parameters are adapted to the uncertainty in the sense that a the robot takes a more or less active role depending on its confidence in the human behavior prediction. The approach is based on risk-sensitive optimal feedback control. The human behavior is modeled using probabilistic learning methods and any unexpected disturbance is considered as a source of noise. The proposed approach is validated in situations with different uncertainties, process noise and risk-sensitivities in a tow- Degree-of-Freedom virtual reality experiment. This paper reports on a data-driven, interaction-aware motion prediction approach for pedestrians in environments cluttered with static obstacles. When navigating in such workspaces shared with humans, robots need accurate motion predictions of the surrounding pedestrians. Human navigation behavior is mostly influenced by their surrounding pedestrians and by the static obstacles in their vicinity. In this paper we introduce a new model based on Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks, which is able to learn human motion behavior from demonstrated data. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first approach using LSTMs, that incorporates both static obstacles and surrounding pedestrians for trajectory forecasting. As part of the model, we introduce a new way of encoding surrounding pedestrians based on a 1d-grid in polar angle space. We evaluate the benefit of interaction-aware motion prediction and the added value of incorporating static obstacles on both simulation and real-world datasets by comparing with state-of-the-art approaches. The results show, that our new approach outperforms the other approaches while being very computationally efficient and that taking into account static obstacles for motion predictions significantly improves the prediction accuracy, especially in cluttered environments. Accurately predicting the possible behaviors of traffic participants is an essential capability for future autonomous vehicles. The majority of current researches fix the number of driving intentions by considering only a specific scenario. However, distinct driving environments usually contain various possible driving maneuvers. Therefore, a intention prediction method that can adapt to different traffic scenarios is needed. To further improve the overall vehicle prediction performance, motion information is usually incorporated with classified intentions. As suggested in some literature, the methods that directly predict possible goal locations can achieve better performance for long-term motion prediction than other approaches due to their automatic incorporation of environment constraints. Moreover, by obtaining the temporal information of the predicted destinations, the optimal trajectories for predicted vehicles as well as the desirable path for ego autonomous vehicle could be easily generated. In this paper, we propose a Semantic-based Intention and Motion Prediction (SIMP) method, which can be adapted to any driving scenarios by using semantic-defined vehicle behaviors. It utilizes a probabilistic framework based on deep neural network to estimate the intentions, final locations, and the corresponding time information for surrounding vehicles. An exemplar real-world scenario was used to implement and examine the proposed method. In November 2014, the European Central Bank (ECB) started to directly supervise the largest banks in the Eurozone via the Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM). While supervisory risk assessments are usually based on quantitative data and surveys, this work explores whether sentiment analysis is capable of measuring a bank’s attitude and opinions towards risk by analyzing text data. For realizing this study, a collection consisting of more than 500 CEO letters and outlook sections extracted from bank annual reports is built up. Based on these data, two distinct experiments are conducted. The evaluations find promising opportunities, but also limitations for risk sentiment analysis in banking supervision. At the level of individual banks, predictions are relatively inaccurate. In contrast, the analysis of aggregated figures revealed strong and significant correlations between uncertainty or negativity in textual disclosures and the quantitative risk indicator’s future evolution. Risk sentiment analysis should therefore rather be used for macroprudential analyses than for assessments of individual banks. Autonomous driving requires decision making in dynamic and uncertain environments. The uncertainty from the prediction originates from the noisy sensor data and from the fact that the intention of human drivers cannot be directly measured. This problem is formulated as a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) with the intention of the other vehicles as hidden variables. The solution of the POMDP is a policy determining the optimal acceleration of the ego vehicle along a preplanned path. Therefore, the policy is optimized for the most likely future scenarios resulting from an interactive, probabilistic motion model for the other vehicles. Considering possible future measurements of the surroundings allows the autonomous car to incorporate the estimated change in future prediction accuracy in the optimal policy. A compact representation allows a low-dimensional state-space so that the problem can be solved online for varying road layouts and number of other vehicles. This is done with a point-based solver in an anytime fashion on a continuous state-space. We show the results with simulations for the crossing of complex (unsignalized) intersections. Our approach performs nearly as good as with full prior information about the intentions of the other vehicles and clearly outperforms reactive approaches. Behavior analysis of vehicles surrounding the egovehicle is an essential component in safe and pleasant autonomous driving. This study develops a framework for activity classification of observed on-road vehicles using 3D trajectory cues and a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) model. As a case study, we aim to classify maneuvers of surrounding vehicles at four way intersections. LIDAR, GPS, and IMU measurements are used to extract ego-motion compensated surround trajectories from data clips in the KITTI benchmark. The impact of different prediction label space choices, feature space input, noisy missing trajectory data, and LSTM model architectures are analyzed, presenting the strengths and limitations of the proposed approach. Autonomous vehicles (AVs) are on the road. To safely and efficiently interact with other road participants, AVs have to accurately predict the behavior of surrounding vehicles and plan accordingly. Such prediction should be probabilistic, to address the uncertainties in human behavior. Such prediction should also be interactive, since the distribution over all possible trajectories of the predicted vehicle depends not only on historical information, but also on future plans of other vehicles that interact with it. To achieve such interaction-aware predictions, we propose a probabilistic prediction approach based on hierarchical inverse reinforcement learning (IRL). First, we explicitly consider the hierarchical trajectory-generation process of human drivers involving both discrete and continuous driving decisions. Based on this, the distribution over all future trajectories of the predicted vehicle is formulated as a mixture of distributions partitioned by the discrete decisions. Then we apply IRL hierarchically to learn the distributions from real human demonstrations. A case study for the ramp-merging driving scenario is provided. The quantitative results show that the proposed approach can accurately predict both the discrete driving decisions such as yield or pass as well as the continuous trajectories. Predicting the movement of other traffic participants is an integral part in the motion planning of most automated road vehicles. While simple predictions, e.g. based on assuming constant velocity, may suffice for deciding a driving strategy, predicting the set of all possible behaviors is required to ensure safe motion plans. In this work, we propose a novel tool for the latter problem based on reachability analysis: Set-Based Prediction Of Traffic Participants (SPOT). Our tool can predict the future occupancy of other traffic participants, including all possible maneuvers (e.g. full acceleration, full braking, and arbitrary lane changes), by considering physical constraints and assuming that the traffic participants abide by the traffic rules. However, we remove assumptions for each traffic participant individually as soon as a violation of a traffic rule is detected. Removal of assumptions automatically results in larger occupancies and thus a smaller drivable area for the ego vehicle, ensuring that the ego vehicle does not cause a collision during the time horizon of the prediction. Experimental results show that we obtain the set of future occupancies within a fraction of the prediction horizon. Our tool is available at spot.in.tum.de.