In this paper, we propose an offline counterfactual policy estimation framework called Genie to optimize Sponsored Search Marketplace. Genie employs an open box simulation engine with click calibration model to compute the KPI impact of any modification to the system. From the experimental results on Bing traffic, we showed that Genie performs better than existing observational approaches that employs randomized experiments for traffic slices that have frequent policy updates. We also show that Genie can be used to tune completely new policies efficiently without creating risky randomized experiments due to cold start problem. As time of today, Genie hosts more than 10000 optimization jobs yearly which runs more than 30 Million processing node hours of big data jobs for Bing Ads. For the last 3 years, Genie has been proven to be the one of the major platforms to optimize Bing Ads Marketplace due to its reliability under frequent policy changes and its efficiency to minimize risks in real experiments.
Our focus in this paper is to propose efficient counterfactual estimator for practical tuning problems within the context of Sponsored Search System. In particular, we target on tuning scenarios where @math testing and existing observational approaches can not work efficiently. We split the causal graph for the sponsored search problem into input and system layer and apply different methodologies to predict outcomes. While machine learning methods gives very good results for predicting user click behaviors @cite_3 @cite_12 @cite_16 , we used log replay based to estimate the outcome of the sponsored search system. The reader could think of applying similar approaches for policy optimization problem when training data is very noisy due to frequent system changes or when it is not practical to create online experiment with the proposed modification.
@cite_16 @cite_12 @cite_3
2074694452 2090883204
Click prediction is one of the fundamental problems in sponsored search. Most of existing studies took advantage of machine learning approaches to predict ad click for each event of ad view independently. However, as observed in the real-world sponsored search system, user's behaviors on ads yield high dependency on how the user behaved along with the past time, especially in terms of what queries she submitted, what ads she clicked or ignored, and how long she spent on the landing pages of clicked ads, etc. Inspired by these observations, we introduce a novel framework based on Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN). Compared to traditional methods, this framework directly models the dependency on user's sequential behaviors into the click prediction process through the recurrent structure in RNN. Large scale evaluations on the click-through logs from a commercial search engine demonstrate that our approach can significantly improve the click prediction accuracy, compared to sequence-independent approaches. This paper is concerned with the prediction of clicking an ad in sponsored search. The accurate prediction of user's click on an ad plays an important role in sponsored search, because it is widely used in both ranking and pricing of the ads. Previous work on click prediction usually takes a single ad as input, and ignores its relationship to the other ads shown in the same page. This independence assumption here, however, might not be valid in the real scenario. In this paper, we first perform an analysis on this issue by looking at the click-through rates (CTR) of the same ad, in the same position and for the same query, but surrounded by different ads. We found that in most cases the CTR varies largely, which suggests that the relationship between ads is really an important factor in predicting click probability. Furthermore, our investigation shows that the more similar the surrounding ads are to an ad, the lower the CTR of the ad is. Based on this observation, we design a continuous conditional random fields (CRF) based model for click prediction, which considers both the features of an ad and its similarity to the surrounding ads. We show that the model can be effectively learned using maximum likelihood estimation, and can also be efficiently inferred due to its closed form solution. Our experimental results on the click-through log from a commercial search engine show that the proposed model can predict clicks more accurately than previous independent models. To our best knowledge this is the first work that predicts ad clicks by considering the relationship between ads. In modern commercial search engines, the pay-per-click (PPC) advertising model is widely used in sponsored search. The search engines try to deliver ads which can produce greater click yields (the total number of clicks for the list of ads per impression). Therefore, predicting user clicks plays a critical role in sponsored search. The current ad-delivery strategy is a two-step approach which first predicts individual ad CTR for the given query and then selects the ads with higher predicted CTR. However, this strategy is naturally suboptimal and correlation between ads is often ignored under this strategy. The learning problem is focused on predicting individual performance rather than group performance which is the more important measurement. In this paper, we study click yield measurement in sponsored search and focus on the problem---predicting group performance (click yields) in sponsored search. To tackle all challenges in this problem---depth effects, interactive influence, cold start and sparseness of ad textual information---we first investigate several effects and propose a novel framework that could directly predict group performance for lists of ads. Our extensive experiments on a large-scale real-world dataset from a commercial search engine show that we achieve significant improvement by solving the sponsored search problem from the new perspective. Our methods noticeably outperform existing state-of-the-art approaches. Sponsored search is one of the major sources of revenue for search engines on the World Wide Web. It has been observed that while showing ads for every query maximizes short-term revenue, irrelevant ads lead to poor user experience and less revenue in the long-term. Hence, it is in search engines' interest to place ads only for queries that are likely to attract ad-clicks. Many algorithms for estimating query advertisability exist in literature, but most of these methods have been proposed for and tested on the frequent or "head" queries. Since query frequencies on search engine are known to be distributed as a power-law, this leaves a huge fraction of the queries uncovered. In this paper we focus on the more challenging problem of estimating query advertisability for infrequent or "tail" queries. These require fundamentally different methods than head queries: for e.g., tail queries are almost all unique and require the estimation method to be online and inexpensive. We show that previously proposed methods do not apply to tail queries, and when modified for our scenario they do not work well. Further, we give a simple, yet effective, approach, which estimates query advertisability using only the words present in the queries. We evaluate our approach on a real-world dataset consisting of search engine queries and user clicks. Our results show that our simple approach outperforms a more complex one based on regularized regression. We describe a new approach to solving the click-through rate (CTR) prediction problem in sponsored search by means of MatrixNet, the proprietary implementation of boosted trees. This problem is of special importance for the search engine, because choosing the ads to display substantially depends on the predicted CTR and greatly affects the revenue of the search engine and user experience. We discuss different issues such as evaluating and tuning MatrixNet algorithm, feature importance, performance, accuracy and training data set size. Finally, we compare MatrixNet with several other methods and present experimental results from the production system. We describe a new Bayesian click-through rate (CTR) prediction algorithm used for Sponsored Search in Microsoft's Bing search engine. The algorithm is based on a probit regression model that maps discrete or real-valued input features to probabilities. It maintains Gaussian beliefs over weights of the model and performs Gaussian online updates derived from approximate message passing. Scalability of the algorithm is ensured through a principled weight pruning procedure and an approximate parallel implementation. We discuss the challenges arising from evaluating and tuning the predictor as part of the complex system of sponsored search where the predictions made by the algorithm decide about future training sample composition. Finally, we show experimental results from the production system and compare to a calibrated Naive Bayes algorithm. Sponsored search is the primary business for today's commercial search engines. Accurate prediction of the Click-Through Rate (CTR) for ads is key to displaying relevant ads to users. In this paper, we systematically study the two kinds of contextual factors influencing the CTR: 1) In micro factors, we focus on the factors for mainline ads, including ad depth, query diversity, ad interaction. 2) In macro factors, we try to understand the correlations of clicks between organic search and sponsored search. Based on this data analysis, we propose novel click models which harvest these new explored factors. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper to examine and model the effects of the above contextual factors in sponsored search. Extensive experiments on large-scale real-world datasets show that by incorporating these contextual factors, our novel click models can outperform state-of-the-art methods. Sponsored search is a form of online advertising where advertisers bid for placement next to search engine results for specific keywords. As search engines compete for the growing share of online ad spend, it becomes important for them to understand what keywords advertisers value most, and what characteristics of keywords drive value. In this paper we propose an approach to keyword value prediction that draws on advertiser bidding behavior across the terms and campaigns in an account. We provide original insights into the structure of sponsored search accounts that motivate the use of a hierarchical modeling strategy. We propose an economically meaningful loss function which allows us to implicitly fit a linear model for values given observables such as bids and click-through rates. The model draws on demographic and textual features of keywords and takes advantage of the hierarchical structure of sponsored search accounts. Its predictive quality is evaluated on several high-revenue and high-exposure advertising accounts on a major search engine. Besides the general evaluation of advertiser welfare, our approach has potential applications to keyword and bid suggestion. Optimizing an interactive system against a predefined online metric is particularly challenging, especially when the metric is computed from user feedback such as clicks and payments. The key challenge is the counterfactual nature: in the case of Web search, any change to a component of the search engine may result in a different search result page for the same query, but we normally cannot infer reliably from search log how users would react to the new result page. Consequently, it appears impossible to accurately estimate online metrics that depend on user feedback, unless the new engine is actually run to serve live users and compared with a baseline in a controlled experiment. This approach, while valid and successful, is unfortunately expensive and time-consuming. In this paper, we propose to address this problem using causal inference techniques, under the contextual-bandit framework. This approach effectively allows one to run potentially many online experiments offline from search log, making it possible to estimate and optimize online metrics quickly and inexpensively. Focusing on an important component in a commercial search engine, we show how these ideas can be instantiated and applied, and obtain very promising results that suggest the wide applicability of these techniques. There has been considerable work on user browsing models for search engine results, both organic and sponsored. The click-through rate (CTR) of a result is the product of the probability of examination (will the user look at the result) times the perceived relevance of the result (probability of a click given examination). Past papers have assumed that when the CTR of a result varies based on the pattern of clicks in prior positions, this variation is solely due to changes in the probability of examination. We show that, for sponsored search results, a substantial portion of the change in CTR when conditioned on prior clicks is in fact due to a change in the relevance of results for that query instance, not just due to a change in the probability of examination. We then propose three new user browsing models, which attribute CTR changes solely to changes in relevance, solely to changes in examination (with an enhanced model of user behavior), or to both changes in relevance and examination. The model that attributes all the CTR change to relevance yields substantially better predictors of CTR than models that attribute all the change to examination, and does only slightly worse than the model that attributes CTR change to both relevance and examination. For predicting relevance, the model that attributes all the CTR change to relevance again does better than the model that attributes the change to examination. Surprisingly, we also find that one model might do better than another in predicting CTR, but worse in predicting relevance. Thus it is essential to evaluate user browsing models with respect to accuracy in predicting relevance, not just CTR. We develop a learning principle and an efficient algorithm for batch learning from logged bandit feedback. This learning setting is ubiquitous in online systems (e.g., ad placement, web search, recommendation), where an algorithm makes a prediction (e.g., ad ranking) for a given input (e.g., query) and observes bandit feedback (e.g., user clicks on presented ads). We first address the counterfactual nature of the learning problem through propensity scoring. Next, we prove generalization error bounds that account for the variance of the propensity-weighted empirical risk estimator. These constructive bounds give rise to the Counterfactual Risk Minimization (CRM) principle. We show how CRM can be used to derive a new learning method -- called Policy Optimizer for Exponential Models (POEM) -- for learning stochastic linear rules for structured output prediction. We present a decomposition of the POEM objective that enables efficient stochastic gradient optimization. POEM is evaluated on several multi-label classification problems showing substantially improved robustness and generalization performance compared to the state-of-the-art. Accurate estimation of the click-through rate (CTR) in sponsored ads significantly impacts the user search experience and businesses' revenue, even 0.1 of accuracy improvement would yield greater earnings in the hundreds of millions of dollars. CTR prediction is generally formulated as a supervised classification problem. In this paper, we share our experience and learning on model ensemble design and our innovation. Specifically, we present 8 ensemble methods and evaluate them on our production data. Boosting neural networks with gradient boosting decision trees turns out to be the best. With larger training data, there is a nearly 0.9 AUC improvement in offline testing and significant click yield gains in online traffic. In addition, we share our experience and learning on improving the quality of training. We develop a learning principle and an efficient algorithm for batch learning from logged bandit feedback. This learning setting is ubiquitous in online systems (e.g., ad placement, web search, recommendation), where an algorithm makes a prediction (e.g., ad ranking) for a given input (e.g., query) and observes bandit feedback (e.g., user clicks on presented ads). We first address the counterfactual nature of the learning problem (, 2013) through propensity scoring. Next, we prove generalization error bounds that account for the variance of the propensity-weighted empirical risk estimator. In analogy to the Structural Risk Minimization principle of Wapnik and Tscherwonenkis (1979), these constructive bounds give rise to the Counterfactual Risk Minimization (CRM) principle. We show how CRM can be used to derive a new learning method--called Policy Optimizer for Exponential Models (POEM)--for learning stochastic linear rules for structured output prediction. We present a decomposition of the POEM objective that enables efficient stochastic gradient optimization. The effectiveness and efficiency of POEM is evaluated on several simulated multi-label classification problems, as well as on a real-world information retrieval problem. The empirical results show that the CRM objective implemented in POEM provides improved robustness and generalization performance compared to the state-of-the-art. Sponsored search is an important monetization channel for search engines, in which an auction mechanism is used to select the ads shown to users and determine the prices charged from advertisers. There have been several pieces of work in the literature that investigate how to design an auction mechanism in order to optimize the revenue of the search engine. However, due to some unrealistic assumptions used, the practical values of these studies are not very clear. In this paper, we propose a novel game-theoretic machine learning approach, which naturally combines machine learning and game theory, and learns the auction mechanism using a bilevel optimization framework. In particular, we first learn a Markov model from historical data to describe how advertisers change their bids in response to an auction mechanism, and then for any given auction mechanism, we use the learnt model to predict its corresponding future bid sequences. Next we learn the auction mechanism through empirical revenue maximization on the predicted bid sequences. We show that the empirical revenue will converge when the prediction period approaches infinity, and a Genetic Programming algorithm can effectively optimize this empirical revenue. Our experiments indicate that the proposed approach is able to produce a much more effective auction mechanism than several baselines. In this paper we study the problems of estimating heterogeneity in causal effects in experimental or observational studies and conducting inference about the magnitude of the differences in treatment effects across subsets of the population. In applications, our method provides a data-driven approach to determine which subpopulations have large or small treatment effects and to test hypotheses about the differences in these effects. For experiments, our method allows researchers to identify heterogeneity in treatment effects that was not specified in a pre-analysis plan, without concern about invalidating inference due to multiple testing. In most of the literature on supervised machine learning (e.g. regression trees, random forests, LASSO, etc.), the goal is to build a model of the relationship between a unit's attributes and an observed outcome. A prominent role in these methods is played by cross-validation which compares predictions to actual outcomes in test samples, in order to select the level of complexity of the model that provides the best predictive power. Our method is closely related, but it differs in that it is tailored for predicting causal effects of a treatment rather than a unit's outcome. The challenge is that the "ground truth" for a causal effect is not observed for any individual unit: we observe the unit with the treatment, or without the treatment, but not both at the same time. Thus, it is not obvious how to use cross-validation to determine whether a causal effect has been accurately predicted. We propose several novel cross-validation criteria for this problem and demonstrate through simulations the conditions under which they perform better than standard methods for the problem of causal effects. We then apply the method to a large-scale field experiment re-ranking results on a search engine. This paper identifies a severe problem of the counterfactual risk estimator typically used in batch learning from logged bandit feedback (BLBF), and proposes the use of an alternative estimator that avoids this problem. In the BLBF setting, the learner does not receive full-information feedback like in supervised learning, but observes feedback only for the actions taken by a historical policy. This makes BLBF algorithms particularly attractive for training online systems (e.g., ad placement, web search, recommendation) using their historical logs. The Counterfactual Risk Minimization (CRM) principle [1] offers a general recipe for designing BLBF algorithms. It requires a counterfactual risk estimator, and virtually all existing works on BLBF have focused on a particular unbiased estimator. We show that this conventional estimator suffers from a propensity overfitting problem when used for learning over complex hypothesis spaces. We propose to replace the risk estimator with a self-normalized estimator, showing that it neatly avoids this problem. This naturally gives rise to a new learning algorithm - Normalized Policy Optimizer for Exponential Models (Norm-POEM) - for structured output prediction using linear rules. We evaluate the empirical effectiveness of Norm-POEM on several multi-label classification problems, finding that it consistently outperforms the conventional estimator. We consider the budget optimization problem faced by an advertiser participating in repeated sponsored search auctions, seeking to maximize the number of clicks attained under that budget. We cast the budget optimization problem as a Markov Decision Process (MDP) with censored observations, and propose a learning algorithm based on the wellknown Kaplan-Meier or product-limit estimator. We validate the performance of this algorithm by comparing it to several others on a large set of search auction data from Microsoft adCenter, demonstrating fast convergence to optimal performance. We propose Coactive Learning as a model of interaction between a learning system and a human user, where both have the common goal of providing results of maximum utility to the user. At each step, the system (e.g. search engine) receives a context (e.g. query) and predicts an object (e.g. ranking). The user responds by correcting the system if necessary, providing a slightly improved -- but not necessarily optimal -- object as feedback. We argue that such feedback can often be inferred from observable user behavior, for example, from clicks in web-search. Evaluating predictions by their cardinal utility to the user, we propose efficient learning algorithms that have @math average regret, even though the learning algorithm never observes cardinal utility values as in conventional online learning. We demonstrate the applicability of our model and learning algorithms on a movie recommendation task, as well as ranking for web-search. Computational advertising is an emerging scientific discipline, at the intersection of large scale search and text analysis, information retrieval, statistical modeling, machine learning, optimization, and microeconomics. The central challenge of computational advertising is to find the "best match" between a given user in a given context and a suitable advertisement. The context could be a user entering a query in a search engine ("sponsored search"), a user reading a web page ("content match" and "display ads"), a user conversing on a cell phone ("mobile advertising"), and so on. The information about the user can vary from scarily detailed to practically nil. The number of potential advertisements might be in the billions. Thus, depending on the definition of "best match" this challenge leads to a variety of massive optimization and search problems, with complicated constraints. The main part of this talk will give an introduction to computational advertising and present some illustrative research. In the second part we will discuss connections to recommender systems and present a couple of open problems of potential interest to both communities. Displaying sponsored ads alongside the search results is a key monetization strategy for search engine companies. Since users are more likely to click ads that are relevant to their query, it is crucial for search engine to deliver the right ads for the query and the order in which they are displayed. There are several works investigating on how to learn a ranking function to maximize the number of ad clicks. In this paper, we address a new revenue optimization problem and aim to answer the question: how to construct a ranking model that can deliver high quality ads to the user as well as maximize search engine revenue? We introduce two novel methods from di fferent machine learning perspectives, and both of them take the revenue component into careful considerations. The algorithms are built upon the click-through log data with real ad clicks and impressions. The extensively experimental results verify the proposed algorithm that can produce more revenue than other methods as well as avoid losing relevance accuracy. To provide deep insight into the importance of each feature to search engine revenue, we extract twelve basic features from four categories. The experimental study provides a feature ranking list according to the revenue benefit of each feature.