The honeynet is a promising active cyber defense mechanism. It reveals the fundamental Indicators of Compromise (IoC) by luring attackers to conduct adversarial behaviors in a controlled and monitored environment. The active interaction at the honeynet brings a high reward but also introduces high implementation costs and risks of adversarial honeynet exploitation. In this work, we apply the infinite-horizon Semi-Markov Decision Process (SMDP) to characterize the stochastic transition and sojourn time of attackers in the honeynet and quantify the reward-risk trade-off. In particular, we produce adaptive long-term engagement policies shown to be risk-averse, cost-effective, and time-efficient. Numerical results have demonstrated that our adaptive interaction policies can quickly attract attackers to the target honeypot and engage them for a sufficiently long period to obtain worthy threat information. Meanwhile, the penetration probability is kept at a low level. The results show that the expected utility is robust against attackers of a large range of persistence and intelligence. Finally, we apply reinforcement learning to SMDP to solve the curse of modeling. Under a prudent choice of the learning rate and exploration policy, we achieve a quick and robust convergence of the optimal policy and value.
SMDP generalizes MDP by considering the random sojourn time at each state, and is widely applied to machine maintenance @cite_13 , resource allocation @cite_8 , and cybersecurity @cite_9 . However, as far as we know, it is the first time that the SMDP is applied to determine the optimal attacker engagement policy and to quantify the trade-off between the investigation reward and the risks.
@cite_9 @cite_13 @cite_8
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Transfer learning seeks to leverage previously learned tasks to achieve faster learning in a new task. In this paper, we consider transfer learning in the context of related but distinct Reinforcement Learning (RL) problems. In particular, our RL problems are derived from Semi-Markov Decision Processes (SMDPs) that share the same transition dynamics but have different reward functions that are linear in a set of reward features. We formally define the transfer learning problem in the context of RL as learning an efficient algorithm to solve any SMDP drawn from a fixed distribution after experiencing a finite number of them. Furthermore, we introduce an online algorithm to solve this problem, Variable-Reward Reinforcement Learning (VRRL), that compactly stores the optimal value functions for several SMDPs, and uses them to optimally initialize the value function for a new SMDP. We generalize our method to a hierarchical RL setting where the different SMDPs share the same task hierarchy. Our experimental results in a simplified real-time strategy domain show that significant transfer learning occurs in both flat and hierarchical settings. Transfer is especially effective in the hierarchical setting where the overall value functions are decomposed into subtask value functions which are more widely amenable to transfer across different SMDPs. Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to suggest an alternative to the widely used Times Cited criterion for analysing citation networks. The approach involves taking account of the natures of the papers that cite a given paper, so as to differentiate between papers that attract the same number of citations.Design methodology approach – ArticleRank is an algorithm that has been derived from Google's PageRank algorithm to measure the influence of journal articles. ArticleRank is applied to two datasets – a citation network based on an early paper on webometrics, and a self‐citation network based on the 19 most cited papers in the Journal of Documentation – using citation data taken from the Web of Knowledge database.Findings – ArticleRank values provide a different ranking of a set of papers from that provided by the corresponding Times Cited values, and overcomes the inability of the latter to differentiate between papers with the same numbers of citations. The difference in rankings between Times Cited ... High correlation in failure of information systems due to worms and viruses has been cited as major impediment to cyber-insurance. However, of the many cyber-risk classes that influence failure of information systems, not all exhibit similar correlation properties. In this paper, we introduce a new classification of correlation properties of cyber-risks based on a twin-tier approach. At the first tier, is the correlation of cyber-risks within a firm i.e. correlated failure of multiple systems on its internal network. At second tier, is the correlation in risk at a global level i.e. correlation across independent firms in an insurer’s portfolio. Various classes of cyber-risks exhibit dierent level of correlation at two tiers, for instance, insider attacks exhibit high internal but low global correlation. While internal risk correlation within a firm influences its decision to seek insurance, the global correlation influences insurers’ decision in setting the premium. Citing real data we study the combined dynamics of the two-step risk arrival process to determine conditions conducive to the existence of cyber-insurance market. We address technical, managerial and policy choices influencing the correlation at both steps and the business implications thereof. Learning, planning, and representing knowledge at multiple levels of temporal ab- straction are key, longstanding challenges for AI. In this paper we consider how these challenges can be addressed within the mathematical framework of reinforce- ment learning and Markov decision processes (MDPs). We extend the usual notion of action in this framework to include options—closed-loop policies for taking ac- tion over a period of time. Examples of options include picking up an object, going to lunch, and traveling to a distant city, as well as primitive actions such as mus- cle twitches and joint torques. Overall, we show that options enable temporally abstract knowledge and action to be included in the reinforcement learning frame- work in a natural and general way. In particular, we show that options may be used interchangeably with primitive actions in planning methods such as dynamic pro- gramming and in learning methods such as Q-learning. Formally, a set of options defined over an MDP constitutes a semi-Markov decision process (SMDP), and the theory of SMDPs provides the foundation for the theory of options. However, the most interesting issues concern the interplay between the underlying MDP and the SMDP and are thus beyond SMDP theory. We present results for three such cases: 1) we show that the results of planning with options can be used during execution to interrupt options and thereby perform even better than planned, 2) we introduce new intra-option methods that are able to learn about an option from fragments of its execution, and 3) we propose a notion of subgoal that can be used to improve the options themselves. All of these results have precursors in the existing literature; the contribution of this paper is to establish them in a simpler and more general setting with fewer changes to the existing reinforcement learning framework. In particular, we show that these results can be obtained without committing to (or ruling out) any particular approach to state abstraction, hierarchy, function approximation, or the macro-utility problem. Previous research indicates that during the past 20 years, the highest-quality work has been published in an increasingly diverse and larger group of journals. In this article, we examine whether this diversification has also affected the handful of elite journals that are traditionally considered to be the best. We examine citation patterns during the past 40 years of seven long-standing traditionally elite journals and six journals that have been increasing in importance during the past 20 years. To be among the top 5 or 1 cited papers, papers now need about twice as many citations as they did 40 years ago. Since the late 1980s and early 1990s, elite journals have been publishing a decreasing proportion of these top-cited papers. This also applies to the two journals that are typically considered as the top venues and often used as bibliometric indicators of "excellence": Science and Nature. On the other hand, several new and established journals are publishing an increasing proportion of the most-cited papers. These changes bring new challenges and opportunities for all parties. Journals can enact policies to increase or maintain their relative position in the journal hierarchy. Researchers now have the option to publish in more diverse venues knowing that their work can still reach the same audiences. Finally, evaluators and administrators need to know that although there will always be a certain prestige associated with publishing in "elite" journals, journal hierarchies are in constant flux. A new form of document coupling called co-citation is defined as the frequency with which two documents are cited together. The co-citation frequency of two scientific papers can be determined by comparing lists of citing documents in the Science Citation Index and counting identical entries. Networks of co-cited papers can be generated for specific scientific specialties, and an example is drawn from the literature of particle physics. Co-citation patterns are found to differ significantly from bibliographic coupling patterns, but to agree generally with patterns of direct citation. Clusters of co-cited papers provide a new way to study the specialty structure of science. They may provide a new approach to indexing and to the creation of SDI profiles. Abstract Documents in computer-readable form can be used to provide information about other documents, i.e. those they cite. To do this efficiently requires procedures for computer recognition of citing statements. This is not easy, especially for multi-sentence citing statements. Computer recognition procedures have been developed which are accurate to the following extent: 73 of the words in statements selected by computer procedures as being citing statements are words which are correctly attributable to the corresponding documents. The retrieval effectiveness of computer-recognized citing statements was tested in the following way. First, for eight retrieval requests in inorganiic chemistry, average recall by search of Chemical Abstracts Service indexing and Chemical Abstracts abstract text words was found to be 50 . Words from citing statements referring to the papers to be retrieved were then added to the index terms and abstract words as additional access points, and searching was repeated. Average recall increased to 70 . Only words from citing statements published within a year of the cited papers were used. The retrieval effect of citing statement words alone (published within a year) without index or abstract terms was the following: average recall was 40 . When just the words of the titles of the cited papers were added to those citing statement words, average recall increased to 50 . A citing sentence is one that appears in a scientific article and cites previous work. Citing sentences have been studied and used in many applications. For example, they have been used in scientific paper summarization, automatic survey generation, paraphrase identification, and citation function classification. Citing sentences that cite multiple papers are common in scientific writing. This observation should be taken into consideration when using citing sentences in applications. For instance, when a citing sentence is used in a summary of a scientific paper, only the fragments of the sentence that are relevant to the summarized paper should be included in the summary. In this paper, we present and compare three different approaches for identifying the fragments of a citing sentence that are related to a given target reference. Our methods are: word classification, sequence labeling, and segment classification. Our experiments show that segment classification achieves the best results. Scholars are increasingly citing electronic “web references” which are not preserved in libraries or full text archives. WebCite is a new standard for citing web references. To “webcite” a document involves archiving the cited Web page through www.webcitation.org and citing the WebCite permalink instead of (or in addition to) the unstable live Web page. This journal has amended its “instructions for authors” accordingly, asking authors to archive cited Web pages before submitting a manuscript. Almost 200 other journals are already using the system. We discuss the rationale for WebCite, its technology, and how scholars, editors, and publishers can benefit from the service. Citing scholars initiate an archiving process of all cited Web references, ideally before they submit a manuscript. Authors of online documents and websites which are expected to be cited by others can ensure that their work is permanently available by creating an archived copy using WebCite and providing the citation information including the WebCite link on their Web document(s). Editors should ask their authors to cache all cited Web addresses (Uniform Resource Locators, or URLs) “prospectively” before submitting their manuscripts to their journal. Editors and publishers should also instruct their copyeditors to cache cited Web material if the author has not done so already. Finally, WebCite can process publisher submitted “citing articles” (submitted for example as eXtensible Markup Language [XML] documents) to automatically archive all cited Web pages shortly before or on publication. Finally, WebCite can act as a focussed crawler, caching retrospectively references of already published articles. Copyright issues are addressed by honouring respective Internet standards (robot exclusion files, no-cache and no-archive tags). Long-term preservation is ensured by agreements with libraries and digital preservation organizations. The resulting WebCite Index may also have applications for research assessment exercises, being able to measure the impact of Web services and published Web documents through access and Web citation metrics. @PARASPLIT [J Med Internet Res 2005;7(5):e60] In a document network such as a citation network of scientific documents, web-logs, etc., the content produced by authors exhibits their interest in certain topics. In addition some authors influence other authors' interests. In this work, we propose to model the influence of cited authors along with the interests of citing authors. Moreover, we hypothesize that apart from the citations present in documents, the context surrounding the citation mention provides extra topical information about the cited authors. However, associating terms in the context to the cited authors remains an open problem. We propose novel document generation schemes that incorporate the context while simultaneously modeling the interests of citing authors and influence of the cited authors. Our experiments show significant improvements over baseline models for various evaluation criteria such as link prediction between document and cited author, and quantitatively explaining unseen text. We consider a distributed server system with m servers operating under the processor sharing (PS) discipline. A stream of fixed size tasks arrives to a dispatcher, which assigns each task to one of the servers. We are interested in minimizing the mean sojourn time, i.e., the mean response time. To this end, we first analyze an M D l-PS queue in the MDP framework. In particular, we derive a closed form expression for the so-called size-aware relative value of state, which sums up the deviation from the average rate at which sojourn times are accumulated in the infinite time horizon. This result can be applied in numerous situations. Here we give an example in the context of dispatching problems by deriving efficient and robust state-dependent dispatching policies for homogeneous and heterogeneous server systems. The obtained policies are further demonstrated by numerical examples. Citation relationship between scientific publications has been successfully used for scholarly bibliometrics, information retrieval and data mining tasks, and citation-based recommendation algorithms are well documented. While previous studies investigated citation relations from various viewpoints, most of them share the same assumption that, if paper1 cites paper2 (or author1 cites author2), they are connected, regardless of citation importance, sentiment, reason, topic, or motivation. However, this assumption is oversimplified. In this study, we employ an innovative "context-rich heterogeneous network" approach, which paves a new way for citation recommendation task. In the network, we characterize 1) the importance of citation relationships between citing and cited papers, and 2) the topical citation motivation. Unlike earlier studies, the citation information, in this paper, is characterized by citation textual contexts extracted from the full-text citing paper. We also propose algorithm to cope with the situation when large portion of full-text missing information exists in the bibliographic repository. Evaluation results show that, context-rich heterogeneous network can significantly enhance the citation recommendation performance. Prediction markets are economic mechanisms for aggregating information about future events through sequential interactions with traders. The pricing mechanisms in these markets are known to be related to optimization algorithms in machine learning and through these connections we have some understanding of how equilibrium market prices relate to the beliefs of the traders in a market. However, little is known about rates and guarantees for the convergence of these sequential mechanisms, and two recent papers cite this as an important open question. In this paper we show how some previously studied prediction market trading models can be understood as a natural generalization of randomized coordinate descent which we call randomized subspace descent (RSD). We establish convergence rates for RSD and leverage them to prove rates for the two prediction market models above, answering the open questions. Our results extend beyond standard centralized markets to arbitrary trade networks. We consider the dispatching problem in a size- and state-aware multi-queue system with Poisson arrivals and queue-specific job sizes. By size- and state-awareness, we mean that the dispatcher knows the size of an arriving job and the remaining service times of the jobs in each queue. By queue-specific job sizes, we mean that the time to process a job may depend on the chosen server. We focus on minimizing the mean sojourn time (i.e., response time) by an MDP approach. First we derive the so-called size-aware relative values of states with respect to the sojourn time in an M G 1 queue operating under FIFO, LIFO, SPT or SRPT disciplines. For FIFO and LIFO, the size-aware relative values turn out to be insensitive to the form of the job size distribution. The relative values are then exploited in developing efficient dispatching rules in the spirit of the first policy iteration. Historically, papers have been physically bound to the journal in which they were published; but in the digital age papers are available individually, no longer tied to their respective journals. Hence, papers now can be read and cited based on their own merits, independently of the journal's physical availability, reputation, or impact factor (IF). We compare the strength of the relationship between journals' IFs and the actual citations received by their respective papers from 1902 to 2009. Throughout most of the 20th century, papers' citation rates were increasingly linked to their respective journals' IFs. However, since 1990, the advent of the digital age, the relation between IFs and paper citations has been weakening. This began first in physics, a field that was quick to make the transition into the electronic domain. Furthermore, since 1990 the overall proportion of highly cited papers coming from highly cited journals has been decreasing and, of these highly cited papers, the proportion not coming from highly cited journals has been increasing. Should this pattern continue, it might bring an end to the use of the IF as a way to evaluate the quality of journals, papers, and researchers. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. We measure media bias by estimating ideological scores for several major media outlets. To compute this, we count the times that a particular media outlet cites various think tanks and policy groups, and then compare this with the times that members of Congress cite the same groups. Our results show a strong liberal bias: all of the news outlets we examine, except Fox News' Special Report and the Washington Times, received scores to the left of the average member of Congress. Consistent with claims made by conservative critics, CBS Evening News and the New York Times received scores far to the left of center. The most centrist media outlets were PBS NewsHour, CNN's Newsnight, and ABC's Good Morning America; among print outlets, USA Today was closest to the center. All of our findings refer strictly to news content; that is, we exclude editorials, letters, and the like. "The editors in Los Angeles killed the story. They told Witcover that it didn't ‘come off’ and that it was an ‘opinion’ story.… The solution was simple, they told him. All he had to do was get other people to make the same points and draw the same conclusions and then write the article in their words" (emphasis in original). Timothy Crouse, Boys on the Bus [1973, p. 116]. Controlling the robot with a permanently-updated optimal trajectory, also known as model predictive control, is the Holy Grail of whole-body motion generation. Before obtaining it, several challenges should be faced: computation cost, non-linear local minima, algorithm stability, etc. In this paper, we address the problem of applying the updated optimal control in real-time on the physical robot. In particular, we focus on the problems raised by the delays due to computation and by the differences between the real robot and the simulated model. Based on the optimal-control solver MuJoCo, we implemented a complete model-predictive controller and we applied it in real-time on the physical HRP-2 robot. It is the first time that such a whole-body model predictive controller is applied in real-time on a complex dynamic robot. Aside from the technical contributions cited above, the main contribution of this paper is to report the experimental results of this premiere implementation. We investigate the minimization of Newton's functional for the problem of the body of minimal resistance with maximal height @math cite butt in the class of convex developable functions defined in a disc. This class is a natural candidate to find a (non-radial) minimizer in accordance with the results of cite lrp2. We prove that the minimizer in this class has a minimal set in the form of a regular polygon with @math sides centered in the disc, and numerical experiments indicate that the natural number @math is a non-decreasing function of @math . The corresponding functions all achieve a lower value of the functional than the optimal radially symmetric function with the same height @math . In recent years scholars have built maps of science by connecting the academic fields that cite each other, are cited together, or that cite a similar literature. But since scholars cannot always publish in the fields they cite, or that cite them, these science maps are only rough proxies for the potential of a scholar, organization, or country, to enter a new academic field. Here we use a large dataset of scholarly publications disambiguated at the individual level to create a map of science-or research space-where links connect pairs of fields based on the probability that an individual has published in both of them. We find that the research space is a significantly more accurate predictor of the fields that individuals and organizations will enter in the future than citation based science maps. At the country level, however, the research space and citations based science maps are equally accurate. These findings show that data on career trajectories-the set of fields that individuals have previously published in-provide more accurate predictors of future research output for more focalized units-such as individuals or organizations-than citation based science maps. In the context of standard Markov decision processes (MDPs), the connection between Dynamic Program (DP) and Linear Program (LP) is well understood and is well established under sufficiently general conditions. LP based approach facilitates solving the constrained MDPs. Multiplicative or Risk sensitive MDPs, introduced to control the fluctuations variations around the expected value, are relatively less studied objects. DP equations are considerably well understood even in the context of Risk MDPs, however the LP connection is not known. We consider a finite horizon risk MDP problem and establish the connections between the DP and LP approaches. We augment the state space with a suitable component, to obtain the optimal policies for constrained risk MDPs. We apply this results to a server selection problem in Ber M K K queues, with a constraint on the utilization of the fast server. We discuss some interesting structural properties of the risk optimal policies.