In this paper we study the problem of predictability in partially observable discrete event systems, i.e., the question whether an observer can predict the occurrence of a fault. We extend the definition of predictability to consider the time interval where the fault will occur: the @math -predictability does not only specify that the fault will be predicted before it occurs, but also that the predictor will be able to predict that its occurrence will occur in @math to @math observations from now. We also provide a quadratic algorithm that decides predictability of the system.
Predictability as presented in this paper was introduced by Genc and Lafortune @cite_13 . Their approach was however only Boolean: they addressed the question can the fault be predicted before it occurs?'' They presented an exponential space algorithm using a structure similar to our optimal predictor. They also announced the existence of a polytime algorithm, similar to the twin plant used for diagnosability and formally presented in an extension of their work @cite_3 .
@cite_13 @cite_3
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In recent years scholars have built maps of science by connecting the academic fields that cite each other, are cited together, or that cite a similar literature. But since scholars cannot always publish in the fields they cite, or that cite them, these science maps are only rough proxies for the potential of a scholar, organization, or country, to enter a new academic field. Here we use a large dataset of scholarly publications disambiguated at the individual level to create a map of science-or research space-where links connect pairs of fields based on the probability that an individual has published in both of them. We find that the research space is a significantly more accurate predictor of the fields that individuals and organizations will enter in the future than citation based science maps. At the country level, however, the research space and citations based science maps are equally accurate. These findings show that data on career trajectories-the set of fields that individuals have previously published in-provide more accurate predictors of future research output for more focalized units-such as individuals or organizations-than citation based science maps. In this work, we address the problem of joint modeling of text and citations in the topic modeling framework. We present two different models called the Pairwise-Link-LDA and the Link-PLSA-LDA models. The Pairwise-Link-LDA model combines the ideas of LDA [4] and Mixed Membership Block Stochastic Models [1] and allows modeling arbitrary link structure. However, the model is computationally expensive, since it involves modeling the presence or absence of a citation (link) between every pair of documents. The second model solves this problem by assuming that the link structure is a bipartite graph. As the name indicates, Link-PLSA-LDA model combines the LDA and PLSA models into a single graphical model. Our experiments on a subset of Citeseer data show that both these models are able to predict unseen data better than the baseline model of Erosheva and Lafferty [8], by capturing the notion of topical similarity between the contents of the cited and citing documents. Our experiments on two different data sets on the link prediction task show that the Link-PLSA-LDA model performs the best on the citation prediction task, while also remaining highly scalable. In addition, we also present some interesting visualizations generated by each of the models. How do blogs cite and influence each other? How do such links evolve? Does the popularity of old blog posts drop exponentially with time? These are some of the questions that we address in this work. Our goal is to build a model that generates realistic cascades, so that it can help us with link prediction and outlier detection. Blogs (weblogs) have become an important medium of information because of their timely publication, ease of use, and wide availability. In fact, they often make headlines, by discussing and discovering evidence about political events and facts. Often blogs link to one another, creating a publicly available record of how information and influence spreads through an underlying social network. Aggregating links from several blog posts creates a directed graph which we analyze to discover the patterns of information propagation in blogspace, and thereby understand the underlying social network. Not only are blogs interesting on their own merit, but our analysis also sheds light on how rumors, viruses, and ideas propagate over social and computer networks. Here we report some surprising findings of the blog linking and information propagation structure, after we analyzed one of the largest available datasets, with 45,000 blogs and 2.2 million blog-postings. Our analysis also sheds light on how rumors, viruses, and ideas propagate over social and computer networks. We also present a simple model that mimics the spread of information on the blogosphere, and produces information cascades very similar to those found in real life. High correlation in failure of information systems due to worms and viruses has been cited as major impediment to cyber-insurance. However, of the many cyber-risk classes that influence failure of information systems, not all exhibit similar correlation properties. In this paper, we introduce a new classification of correlation properties of cyber-risks based on a twin-tier approach. At the first tier, is the correlation of cyber-risks within a firm i.e. correlated failure of multiple systems on its internal network. At second tier, is the correlation in risk at a global level i.e. correlation across independent firms in an insurer’s portfolio. Various classes of cyber-risks exhibit dierent level of correlation at two tiers, for instance, insider attacks exhibit high internal but low global correlation. While internal risk correlation within a firm influences its decision to seek insurance, the global correlation influences insurers’ decision in setting the premium. Citing real data we study the combined dynamics of the two-step risk arrival process to determine conditions conducive to the existence of cyber-insurance market. We address technical, managerial and policy choices influencing the correlation at both steps and the business implications thereof. The resources allocated for software quality assurance and improvement have not increased with the ever-increasing need for better software quality. A targeted software quality inspection can detect faulty modules and reduce the number of faults occurring during operations. We present a software fault prediction modeling approach with case-based reasoning (CBR), a part of the computational intelligence field focusing on automated reasoning processes. A CBR system functions as a software fault prediction model by quantifying, for a module under development, the expected number of faults based on similar modules that were previously developed. Such a system is composed of a similarity function, the number of nearest neighbor cases used for fault prediction, and a solution algorithm. The selection of a particular similarity function and solution algorithm may affect the performance accuracy of a CBR-based software fault prediction system. This paper presents an empirical study investigating the effects of using three different similarity functions and two different solution algorithms on the prediction accuracy of our CBR system. The influence of varying the number of nearest neighbor cases on the performance accuracy is also explored. Moreover, the benefits of using metric-selection procedures for our CBR system is also evaluated. Case studies of a large legacy telecommunications system are used for our analysis. It is observed that the CBR system using the Mahalanobis distance similarity function and the inverse distance weighted solution algorithm yielded the best fault prediction. In addition, the CBR models have better performance than models based on multiple linear regression. In a document network such as a citation network of scientific documents, web-logs, etc., the content produced by authors exhibits their interest in certain topics. In addition some authors influence other authors' interests. In this work, we propose to model the influence of cited authors along with the interests of citing authors. Moreover, we hypothesize that apart from the citations present in documents, the context surrounding the citation mention provides extra topical information about the cited authors. However, associating terms in the context to the cited authors remains an open problem. We propose novel document generation schemes that incorporate the context while simultaneously modeling the interests of citing authors and influence of the cited authors. Our experiments show significant improvements over baseline models for various evaluation criteria such as link prediction between document and cited author, and quantitatively explaining unseen text. Link analysis typically focuses on a single type of connection, e.g., two journal papers are linked because they are written by the same author. However, often we want to analyze data that has multiple linkages between objects, e.g., two papers may have the same keywords and one may cite the other. The goal of this paper is to show that multilinear algebra provides a tool for multilink analysis. We analyze five years of publication data from journals published by the Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics. We explore how papers can be grouped in the context of multiple link types using a tensor to represent all the links between them. A PARAFAC decomposition on the resulting tensor yields information similar to the SVD decomposition of a standard adjacency matrix. We show how the PARAFAC decomposition can be used to understand the structure of the document space and define paper-paper similarities based on multiple linkages. Examples are presented where the decomposed tensor data is used to find papers similar to a body of work (e.g., related by topic or similar to a particular author's papers), find related authors using linkages other than explicit co-authorship or citations, distinguish between papers written bymore » different authors with the same name, and predict the journal in which a paper was published.« less A citing sentence is one that appears in a scientific article and cites previous work. Citing sentences have been studied and used in many applications. For example, they have been used in scientific paper summarization, automatic survey generation, paraphrase identification, and citation function classification. Citing sentences that cite multiple papers are common in scientific writing. This observation should be taken into consideration when using citing sentences in applications. For instance, when a citing sentence is used in a summary of a scientific paper, only the fragments of the sentence that are relevant to the summarized paper should be included in the summary. In this paper, we present and compare three different approaches for identifying the fragments of a citing sentence that are related to a given target reference. Our methods are: word classification, sequence labeling, and segment classification. Our experiments show that segment classification achieves the best results. A discrete event system that is predictable can anticipate faults and act accordingly. However, bare predictability (as found in the literature) has some drawbacks. One does not know exactly when a fault occurs (it could be immediately or long after it is predicted). We propose lower and upper bound refinements of predictability, called (lb; ub)-predictability. A lower bound guarantees a fault to occur after certain execution steps, whereas an upper bound guarantees a fault to occur, in the future, but before some steps. This information can be exploited by the system to adopt the best contingency plan. We formally define the notions of lb-predictability and ub-predictability, present a decision algorithm to verify it on arbitrary systems, and illustrate them with examples. We study sensor minimization problems in the context of fault diagnosis. Fault diagnosis consists in synthesizing a diagnoser that observes a given plant and identifies faults in the plant as soon as possible after their occurrence. Existing literature on this problem has considered the case of fixed static observers, where the set of observable events is fixed and does not change during execution of the system. In this paper, we consider static observers where the set of observable events is not fixed, but needs to be optimized (e.g., minimized in size). We also consider dynamic observers, where the observer can "switch" sensors on or off, thus dynamically changing the set of events it wishes to observe. It is known that checking diagnosability (i.e., whether a given observer is capable of identifying faults) can be solved in polynomial time for static observers, and we show that the same is true for dynamic ones. On the other hand, minimizing the number of (static) observable events required to achieve diagnosability is NP-complete. We show that this is true also in the case of mask-based observation, where some events are observable but not distinguishable. For dynamic observers' synthesis, we prove that amost permissive finite-state observer can be computed in doubly exponential time, using a game-theoretic approach. We further investigate optimization problems for dynamic observers and define a notion of cost of an observer. We show how to compute an optimal observer using results on mean-payoff games by Zwick and Paterson. We propose a temporal latent space model for link prediction in dynamic social networks, where the goal is to predict links over time based on a sequence of previous graph snapshots. The model assumes that each user lies in an unobserved latent space, and interactions are more likely to occur between similar users in the latent space representation. In addition, the model allows each user to gradually move its position in the latent space as the network structure evolves over time. We present a global optimization algorithm to effectively infer the temporal latent space. Two alternative optimization algorithms with local and incremental updates are also proposed, allowing the model to scale to larger networks without compromising prediction accuracy. Empirically, we demonstrate that our model, when evaluated on a number of real-world dynamic networks, significantly outperforms existing approaches for temporal link prediction in terms of both scalability and predictive power. Many networked embedded sensing and control systems can be modeled as hybrid systems with interacting continuous and discrete dynamics. These systems present significant challenges for monitoring and diagnosis. Many existing model-based approaches focus on diagnostic reasoning assuming appropriate fault signatures have been generated. However, an important missing piece is the integration of model-based techniques with the acquisition and processing of sensor signals and the modeling of faults to support diagnostic reasoning. This paper addresses key modeling and computational problems at the interface between model-based diagnosis techniques and signature analysis to enable the efficient detection and isolation of incipient and abrupt faults in hybrid systems. A hybrid automata model that parameterizes abrupt and incipient faults is introduced. Based on this model, an approach for diagnoser design is presented. The paper also develops a novel mode estimation algorithm that uses model-based prediction to focus distributed processing signal algorithms. Finally, the paper describes a diagnostic system architecture that integrates the modeling, prediction, and diagnosis components. The implemented architecture is applied to fault diagnosis of a complex electro-mechanical machine, the Xerox DC265 printer, and the experimental results presented validate the approach. A number of design trade-offs that were made to support implementation of the algorithms for online applications are also described. In this paper we compare the expressive power of elementary representation formats for vague, incomplete or conflicting information. These include Boolean valuation pairs introduced by Lawry and Gonzalez-Rodriguez, orthopairs of sets of variables, Boolean possibility and necessity measures, three-valued valuations, supervaluations. We make explicit their connections with strong Kleene logic and with Belnap logic of conflicting information. The formal similarities between 3-valued approaches to vagueness and formalisms that handle incomplete information often lead to a confusion between degrees of truth and degrees of uncertainty. Yet there are important differences that appear at the interpretive level: while truth-functional logics of vagueness are accepted by a part of the scientific community (even if questioned by supervaluationists), the truth-functionality assumption of three-valued calculi for handling incomplete information looks questionable, compared to the non-truth-functional approaches based on Boolean possibility-necessity pairs. This paper aims to clarify the similarities and differences between the two situations. We also study to what extent operations for comparing and merging information items in the form of orthopairs can be expressed by means of operations on valuation pairs, three-valued valuations and underlying possibility distributions. We explore the connections between several representations of imperfect information.In each case we compare the expressive power of these formalisms.In each case we study how to express aggregation operations.We demonstrate the formal similarities among these approaches.We point out the differences in interpretations between these approaches. Scholars are increasingly citing electronic “web references” which are not preserved in libraries or full text archives. WebCite is a new standard for citing web references. To “webcite” a document involves archiving the cited Web page through www.webcitation.org and citing the WebCite permalink instead of (or in addition to) the unstable live Web page. This journal has amended its “instructions for authors” accordingly, asking authors to archive cited Web pages before submitting a manuscript. Almost 200 other journals are already using the system. We discuss the rationale for WebCite, its technology, and how scholars, editors, and publishers can benefit from the service. Citing scholars initiate an archiving process of all cited Web references, ideally before they submit a manuscript. Authors of online documents and websites which are expected to be cited by others can ensure that their work is permanently available by creating an archived copy using WebCite and providing the citation information including the WebCite link on their Web document(s). Editors should ask their authors to cache all cited Web addresses (Uniform Resource Locators, or URLs) “prospectively” before submitting their manuscripts to their journal. Editors and publishers should also instruct their copyeditors to cache cited Web material if the author has not done so already. Finally, WebCite can process publisher submitted “citing articles” (submitted for example as eXtensible Markup Language [XML] documents) to automatically archive all cited Web pages shortly before or on publication. Finally, WebCite can act as a focussed crawler, caching retrospectively references of already published articles. Copyright issues are addressed by honouring respective Internet standards (robot exclusion files, no-cache and no-archive tags). Long-term preservation is ensured by agreements with libraries and digital preservation organizations. The resulting WebCite Index may also have applications for research assessment exercises, being able to measure the impact of Web services and published Web documents through access and Web citation metrics. @PARASPLIT [J Med Internet Res 2005;7(5):e60] Software quality engineering comprises of several quality assurance activities such as testing, formal verification, inspection, fault tolerance, and software fault prediction. Until now, many researchers developed and validated several fault prediction models by using machine learning and statistical techniques. There have been used different kinds of software metrics and diverse feature reduction techniques in order to improve the models' performance. However, these studies did not investigate the effect of dataset size, metrics set, and feature selection techniques for software fault prediction. This study is focused on the high-performance fault predictors based on machine learning such as Random Forests and the algorithms based on a new computational intelligence approach called Artificial Immune Systems. We used public NASA datasets from the PROMISE repository to make our predictive models repeatable, refutable, and verifiable. The research questions were based on the effects of dataset size, metrics set, and feature selection techniques. In order to answer these questions, there were defined seven test groups. Additionally, nine classifiers were examined for each of the five public NASA datasets. According to this study, Random Forests provides the best prediction performance for large datasets and Naive Bayes is the best prediction algorithm for small datasets in terms of the Area Under Receiver Operating Characteristics Curve (AUC) evaluation parameter. The parallel implementation of Artificial Immune Recognition Systems (AIRS2Parallel) algorithm is the best Artificial Immune Systems paradigm-based algorithm when the method-level metrics are used. Motivation: Accurately predicting protein secondary structure and relative solvent accessibility is important for the study of protein evolution, structure and function and as a component of protein 3D structure prediction pipelines. Most predictors use a combination of machine learning and profiles, and thus must be retrained and assessed periodically as the number of available protein sequences and structures continues to grow. Results: We present newly trained modular versions of the SSpro and ACCpro predictors of secondary structure and relative solvent accessibility together with their multi-class variants SSpro8 and ACCpro20. We introduce a sharp distinction between the use of sequence similarity alone, typically in the form of sequence profiles at the input level, and the additional use of sequence-based structural similarity, which uses similarity to sequences in the Protein Data Bank to infer annotations at the output level, and study their relative contributions to modern predictors. Using sequence similarity alone, SSpro’s accuracy is between 79 and 80 (79 for ACCpro) and no other predictor seems to exceed 82 . However, when sequence-based structural similarity is added, the accuracy of SSpro rises to 92.9 (90 for ACCpro). Thus, by combining both approaches, these problems appear now to be essentially solved, as an accuracy of 100 cannot be expected for several well-known reasons. These results point also to several open technical challenges, including (i) achieving on the order of 80 accuracy, without using any similarity with known proteins and (ii) achieving on the order of 85 accuracy, using sequence similarity alone. Availability and implementation: SSpro, SSpro8, ACCpro and ACCpro20 programs, data and web servers are available through the SCRATCH suite of protein structure predictors at http: scratch. Prediction markets are economic mechanisms for aggregating information about future events through sequential interactions with traders. The pricing mechanisms in these markets are known to be related to optimization algorithms in machine learning and through these connections we have some understanding of how equilibrium market prices relate to the beliefs of the traders in a market. However, little is known about rates and guarantees for the convergence of these sequential mechanisms, and two recent papers cite this as an important open question. In this paper we show how some previously studied prediction market trading models can be understood as a natural generalization of randomized coordinate descent which we call randomized subspace descent (RSD). We establish convergence rates for RSD and leverage them to prove rates for the two prediction market models above, answering the open questions. Our results extend beyond standard centralized markets to arbitrary trade networks. We introduce mutation-aware fault prediction, which leverages additional guidance from metrics constructed in terms of mutants and the test cases that cover and detect them. We report the results of 12 sets of experiments, applying 4 different predictive modelling techniques to 3 large real-world systems (both open and closed source). The results show that our proposal can significantly (p ≤ 0.05) improve fault prediction performance. Moreover, mutation-based metrics lie in the top 5 most frequently relied upon fault predictors in 10 of the 12 sets of experiments, and provide the majority of the top ten fault predictors in 9 of the 12 sets of experiments. The old Asian legend about the blind men and the elephant comes to mind when looking at how different authors of scientific papers describe a piece of related prior work. It turns out that different citations to the same paper often focus on different aspects of that paper and that neither provides a full description of its full set of contributions. In this article, we will describe our investigation of this phenomenon. We studied citation summaries in the context of research papers in the biomedical domain. A citation summary is the set of citing sentences for a given article and can be used as a surrogate for the actual article in a variety of scenarios. It contains information that was deemed by peers to be important. Our study shows that citation summaries overlap to some extent with the abstracts of the papers and that they also differ from them in that they focus on different aspects of these papers than do the abstracts. In addition to this, co-cited articles (which are pairs of articles cited by another article) tend to be similar. We show results based on a lexical similarity metric called cohesion to justify our claims. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. We introduce a new probabilistic proximity search algorithm for range and A"-nearest neighbor (A"-NN) searching in both coordinate and metric spaces. Although there exist solutions for these problems, they boil down to a linear scan when the space is intrinsically high dimensional, as is the case in many pattern recognition tasks. This, for example, renders the A"-NN approach to classification rather slow in large databases. Our novel idea is to predict closeness between elements according to how they order their distances toward a distinguished set of anchor objects. Each element in the space sorts the anchor objects from closest to farthest to it and the similarity between orders turns out to be an excellent predictor of the closeness between the corresponding elements. We present extensive experiments comparing our method against state-of-the-art exact and approximate techniques, both in synthetic and real, metric and nonmetric databases, measuring both CPU time and distance computations. The experiments demonstrate that our technique almost always improves upon the performance of alternative techniques, in some cases by a wide margin.