Traffic prediction is a fundamental and vital task in Intelligence Transportation System (ITS), but it is very challenging to get high accuracy while containing low computational complexity due to the spatiotemporal characteristics of traffic flow, especially under the metropolitan circumstances. In this work, a new topological framework, called Linkage Network, is proposed to model the road networks and present the propagation patterns of traffic flow. Based on the Linkage Network model, a novel online predictor, named Graph Recurrent Neural Network (GRNN), is designed to learn the propagation patterns in the graph. It could simultaneously predict traffic flow for all road segments based on the information gathered from the whole graph, which thus reduces the computational complexity significantly from O(nm) to O(n+m), while keeping the high accuracy. Moreover, it can also predict the variations of traffic trends. Experiments based on real-world data demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms the existing prediction methods.
There are many previous works @cite_21 considering the traffic condition as a time series and predicting for different segments separately through time series analysis, like Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) based algorithms (ARIMA, SARIMA). Additionally, some research @cite_22 @cite_3 uses the methods of statistical learning such as Bayesian Network (BN), SVR and GBDT, and adds extra information to assist the training. @cite_7 compares those methods and shows their similar performances. In these approaches, the strong spatiotemporal couplings, which exist in metropolitan circumstance particularly, lead to the dilemma of choices between the computation complexity and the sufficiency of input information.
@cite_7 @cite_21 @cite_22 @cite_3
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A citing sentence is one that appears in a scientific article and cites previous work. Citing sentences have been studied and used in many applications. For example, they have been used in scientific paper summarization, automatic survey generation, paraphrase identification, and citation function classification. Citing sentences that cite multiple papers are common in scientific writing. This observation should be taken into consideration when using citing sentences in applications. For instance, when a citing sentence is used in a summary of a scientific paper, only the fragments of the sentence that are relevant to the summarized paper should be included in the summary. In this paper, we present and compare three different approaches for identifying the fragments of a citing sentence that are related to a given target reference. Our methods are: word classification, sequence labeling, and segment classification. Our experiments show that segment classification achieves the best results. In a document network such as a citation network of scientific documents, web-logs, etc., the content produced by authors exhibits their interest in certain topics. In addition some authors influence other authors' interests. In this work, we propose to model the influence of cited authors along with the interests of citing authors. Moreover, we hypothesize that apart from the citations present in documents, the context surrounding the citation mention provides extra topical information about the cited authors. However, associating terms in the context to the cited authors remains an open problem. We propose novel document generation schemes that incorporate the context while simultaneously modeling the interests of citing authors and influence of the cited authors. Our experiments show significant improvements over baseline models for various evaluation criteria such as link prediction between document and cited author, and quantitatively explaining unseen text. Abstract Documents in computer-readable form can be used to provide information about other documents, i.e. those they cite. To do this efficiently requires procedures for computer recognition of citing statements. This is not easy, especially for multi-sentence citing statements. Computer recognition procedures have been developed which are accurate to the following extent: 73 of the words in statements selected by computer procedures as being citing statements are words which are correctly attributable to the corresponding documents. The retrieval effectiveness of computer-recognized citing statements was tested in the following way. First, for eight retrieval requests in inorganiic chemistry, average recall by search of Chemical Abstracts Service indexing and Chemical Abstracts abstract text words was found to be 50 . Words from citing statements referring to the papers to be retrieved were then added to the index terms and abstract words as additional access points, and searching was repeated. Average recall increased to 70 . Only words from citing statements published within a year of the cited papers were used. The retrieval effect of citing statement words alone (published within a year) without index or abstract terms was the following: average recall was 40 . When just the words of the titles of the cited papers were added to those citing statement words, average recall increased to 50 . A new form of document coupling called co-citation is defined as the frequency with which two documents are cited together. The co-citation frequency of two scientific papers can be determined by comparing lists of citing documents in the Science Citation Index and counting identical entries. Networks of co-cited papers can be generated for specific scientific specialties, and an example is drawn from the literature of particle physics. Co-citation patterns are found to differ significantly from bibliographic coupling patterns, but to agree generally with patterns of direct citation. Clusters of co-cited papers provide a new way to study the specialty structure of science. They may provide a new approach to indexing and to the creation of SDI profiles. Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to suggest an alternative to the widely used Times Cited criterion for analysing citation networks. The approach involves taking account of the natures of the papers that cite a given paper, so as to differentiate between papers that attract the same number of citations.Design methodology approach – ArticleRank is an algorithm that has been derived from Google's PageRank algorithm to measure the influence of journal articles. ArticleRank is applied to two datasets – a citation network based on an early paper on webometrics, and a self‐citation network based on the 19 most cited papers in the Journal of Documentation – using citation data taken from the Web of Knowledge database.Findings – ArticleRank values provide a different ranking of a set of papers from that provided by the corresponding Times Cited values, and overcomes the inability of the latter to differentiate between papers with the same numbers of citations. The difference in rankings between Times Cited ... Citation relationship between scientific publications has been successfully used for scholarly bibliometrics, information retrieval and data mining tasks, and citation-based recommendation algorithms are well documented. While previous studies investigated citation relations from various viewpoints, most of them share the same assumption that, if paper1 cites paper2 (or author1 cites author2), they are connected, regardless of citation importance, sentiment, reason, topic, or motivation. However, this assumption is oversimplified. In this study, we employ an innovative "context-rich heterogeneous network" approach, which paves a new way for citation recommendation task. In the network, we characterize 1) the importance of citation relationships between citing and cited papers, and 2) the topical citation motivation. Unlike earlier studies, the citation information, in this paper, is characterized by citation textual contexts extracted from the full-text citing paper. We also propose algorithm to cope with the situation when large portion of full-text missing information exists in the bibliographic repository. Evaluation results show that, context-rich heterogeneous network can significantly enhance the citation recommendation performance. Scholars are increasingly citing electronic “web references” which are not preserved in libraries or full text archives. WebCite is a new standard for citing web references. To “webcite” a document involves archiving the cited Web page through www.webcitation.org and citing the WebCite permalink instead of (or in addition to) the unstable live Web page. This journal has amended its “instructions for authors” accordingly, asking authors to archive cited Web pages before submitting a manuscript. Almost 200 other journals are already using the system. We discuss the rationale for WebCite, its technology, and how scholars, editors, and publishers can benefit from the service. Citing scholars initiate an archiving process of all cited Web references, ideally before they submit a manuscript. Authors of online documents and websites which are expected to be cited by others can ensure that their work is permanently available by creating an archived copy using WebCite and providing the citation information including the WebCite link on their Web document(s). Editors should ask their authors to cache all cited Web addresses (Uniform Resource Locators, or URLs) “prospectively” before submitting their manuscripts to their journal. Editors and publishers should also instruct their copyeditors to cache cited Web material if the author has not done so already. Finally, WebCite can process publisher submitted “citing articles” (submitted for example as eXtensible Markup Language [XML] documents) to automatically archive all cited Web pages shortly before or on publication. Finally, WebCite can act as a focussed crawler, caching retrospectively references of already published articles. Copyright issues are addressed by honouring respective Internet standards (robot exclusion files, no-cache and no-archive tags). Long-term preservation is ensured by agreements with libraries and digital preservation organizations. The resulting WebCite Index may also have applications for research assessment exercises, being able to measure the impact of Web services and published Web documents through access and Web citation metrics. @PARASPLIT [J Med Internet Res 2005;7(5):e60] In recent years scholars have built maps of science by connecting the academic fields that cite each other, are cited together, or that cite a similar literature. But since scholars cannot always publish in the fields they cite, or that cite them, these science maps are only rough proxies for the potential of a scholar, organization, or country, to enter a new academic field. Here we use a large dataset of scholarly publications disambiguated at the individual level to create a map of science-or research space-where links connect pairs of fields based on the probability that an individual has published in both of them. We find that the research space is a significantly more accurate predictor of the fields that individuals and organizations will enter in the future than citation based science maps. At the country level, however, the research space and citations based science maps are equally accurate. These findings show that data on career trajectories-the set of fields that individuals have previously published in-provide more accurate predictors of future research output for more focalized units-such as individuals or organizations-than citation based science maps. Financial time series forecasting has become a challenge because it is noisy, non-stationary and chaotic. Most of the existing forecasting models for this problem do not take market sentiment into consideration. To overcome this limitation, motivated by the fact that market sentiment contains some useful forecasting information, this paper uses textual information to aid the financial time series forecasting and presents a novel text mining approach via combining ARIMA and SVR (Support Vector Regression) to forecasting. The approach contains three steps: representing textual data as feature vectors, using ARIMA to analyze the linear part and developing a SVR model based only on textual feature vector to model the nonlinear part. To verify the effectiveness of the proposed approach, quarterly ROEs (Return of Equity) of six security companies are chosen as the forecasting targets. Comparing with some existing state-of-the-art models, the proposed approach gives superior results. It indicates that the proposed model that uses additional market sentiment provides a promising alternative to financial time series prediction. Abstract We study the behavior at infinity of the tail of the stationary solution of a multidimensional linear auto-regressive process with random coefficients. We exhibit an extended class of multiplicative coefficients satisfying a condition of irreducibility and proximality that yield to a heavy tail behavior. To cite this article: B. de , C. R. Acad. Sci. Paris, Ser. I 339 (2004). A suitable combination of linear and nonlinear models provides a more accurate prediction model than an individual linear or nonlinear model for forecasting time series data originating from various applications. The linear autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and nonlinear artificial neural network (ANN) models are explored in this paper to devise a new hybrid ARIMA-ANN model for the prediction of time series data. Many of the hybrid ARIMA-ANN models which exist in the literature apply an ARIMA model to given time series data, consider the error between the original and the ARIMA-predicted data as a nonlinear component, and model it using an ANN in different ways. Though these models give predictions with higher accuracy than the individual models, there is scope for further improvement in the accuracy if the nature of the given time series is taken into account before applying the models. In the work described in this paper, the nature of volatility was explored using a moving-average filter, and then an ARIMA and an ANN model were suitably applied. Using a simulated data set and experimental data sets such as sunspot data, electricity price data, and stock market data, the proposed hybrid ARIMA-ANN model was applied along with individual ARIMA and ANN models and some existing hybrid ARIMA-ANN models. The results obtained from all of these data sets show that for both one-step-ahead and multistep-ahead forecasts, the proposed hybrid model has higher prediction accuracy. Historically, papers have been physically bound to the journal in which they were published; but in the digital age papers are available individually, no longer tied to their respective journals. Hence, papers now can be read and cited based on their own merits, independently of the journal's physical availability, reputation, or impact factor (IF). We compare the strength of the relationship between journals' IFs and the actual citations received by their respective papers from 1902 to 2009. Throughout most of the 20th century, papers' citation rates were increasingly linked to their respective journals' IFs. However, since 1990, the advent of the digital age, the relation between IFs and paper citations has been weakening. This began first in physics, a field that was quick to make the transition into the electronic domain. Furthermore, since 1990 the overall proportion of highly cited papers coming from highly cited journals has been decreasing and, of these highly cited papers, the proportion not coming from highly cited journals has been increasing. Should this pattern continue, it might bring an end to the use of the IF as a way to evaluate the quality of journals, papers, and researchers. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. The old Asian legend about the blind men and the elephant comes to mind when looking at how different authors of scientific papers describe a piece of related prior work. It turns out that different citations to the same paper often focus on different aspects of that paper and that neither provides a full description of its full set of contributions. In this article, we will describe our investigation of this phenomenon. We studied citation summaries in the context of research papers in the biomedical domain. A citation summary is the set of citing sentences for a given article and can be used as a surrogate for the actual article in a variety of scenarios. It contains information that was deemed by peers to be important. Our study shows that citation summaries overlap to some extent with the abstracts of the papers and that they also differ from them in that they focus on different aspects of these papers than do the abstracts. In addition to this, co-cited articles (which are pairs of articles cited by another article) tend to be similar. We show results based on a lexical similarity metric called cohesion to justify our claims. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. An approach to freeway travel time prediction based on recurrent neural networks is presented. Travel time prediction requires a modeling approach that is capable of dealing with complex nonlinear spatio-temporal relationships among flows, speeds, and densities. Based on the literature, feedforward neural networks are a class of mathematical models well suited for solving this problem. A drawback of the feed-forward approach is that the size and composition of the input time series are inherently design choices and thus fixed for all input. This may lead to unnecessarily large models. Moreover, for different traffic conditions, different sizes and compositions of input time series may be required, a requirement not satisfied by any feedforward data-driven method. The recurrent neural network topology presented is capable of dealing with the spatiotemporal relationships implicitly. The topology of this neural net is derived from a state-space formulation of the travel time prediction problem, which is in l... We measure media bias by estimating ideological scores for several major media outlets. To compute this, we count the times that a particular media outlet cites various think tanks and policy groups, and then compare this with the times that members of Congress cite the same groups. Our results show a strong liberal bias: all of the news outlets we examine, except Fox News' Special Report and the Washington Times, received scores to the left of the average member of Congress. Consistent with claims made by conservative critics, CBS Evening News and the New York Times received scores far to the left of center. The most centrist media outlets were PBS NewsHour, CNN's Newsnight, and ABC's Good Morning America; among print outlets, USA Today was closest to the center. All of our findings refer strictly to news content; that is, we exclude editorials, letters, and the like. "The editors in Los Angeles killed the story. They told Witcover that it didn't ‘come off’ and that it was an ‘opinion’ story.… The solution was simple, they told him. All he had to do was get other people to make the same points and draw the same conclusions and then write the article in their words" (emphasis in original). Timothy Crouse, Boys on the Bus [1973, p. 116]. Clustering problems are central to many knowledge discovery and data mining tasks. However, most existing clustering methods can only work with fixed-dimensional representations of data patterns. In this paper we study the clustering of data patterns that are represented as sequences or time series possibly of different lengths. We propose a model-based approach to this problem using mixtures of autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models. We derive an expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for learning the mixing coefficients as well as the parameters of component models. Experiments were conducted on simulated and real datasets. Results show that our method compares favorably with another method recently proposed by others for similar time series clustering problems. Autoregressive moving average (ARMA) method is applied to modeling the time series of position changes of GPS sites, obtained by the Geographical Survey Institute (GSI) of Japan during the period from April 1996 to March 1998. The present application is focused on denoising of the GPS time series data where only white noise is considered, and detection of data discontinuities and outliers in order to obtain time-averaged velocity and strain fields in central Japan. The data discontinuities are detected by a typical Kalman filter algorithm. The outliers are eliminated by using robust estimation techniques during the ARMA process. The averaged strain field, calculated by the least-squares collocation method from the improved two-year time series data, distinguishes clearly between the tectonically active and inactive regions. Higher maximum shear strain rates were detected in the southern area of the Kanto district. In the areas with very high seismicities, however, the difference between the maximum shear strain rates, that were estimated from the raw time series data and the ARMA-analyzed data, amounted to about 0.2 microstrain yr. This indicates that the existence of noise and discontinuities can lead to an over-prediction of the strain field. Abstract Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) is one of the popular linear models in time series forecasting during the past three decades. Recent research activities in forecasting with artificial neural networks (ANNs) suggest that ANNs can be a promising alternative to the traditional linear methods. ARIMA models and ANNs are often compared with mixed conclusions in terms of the superiority in forecasting performance. In this paper, a hybrid methodology that combines both ARIMA and ANN models is proposed to take advantage of the unique strength of ARIMA and ANN models in linear and nonlinear modeling. Experimental results with real data sets indicate that the combined model can be an effective way to improve forecasting accuracy achieved by either of the models used separately. Preface 1 INTRODUCTION 1.1 Examples of Time Series 1.2 Objectives of Time Series Analysis 1.3 Some Simple Time Series Models 1.3.3 A General Approach to Time Series Modelling 1.4 Stationary Models and the Autocorrelation Function 1.4.1 The Sample Autocorrelation Function 1.4.2 A Model for the Lake Huron Data 1.5 Estimation and Elimination of Trend and Seasonal Components 1.5.1 Estimation and Elimination of Trend in the Absence of Seasonality 1.5.2 Estimation and Elimination of Both Trend and Seasonality 1.6 Testing the Estimated Noise Sequence 1.7 Problems 2 STATIONARY PROCESSES 2.1 Basic Properties 2.2 Linear Processes 2.3 Introduction to ARMA Processes 2.4 Properties of the Sample Mean and Autocorrelation Function 2.4.2 Estimation of @math and @math 2.5 Forecasting Stationary Time Series 2.5.3 Prediction of a Stationary Process in Terms of Infinitely Many Past Values 2.6 The Wold Decomposition 1.7 Problems 3 ARMA MODELS 3.1 ARMA( @math ) Processes 3.2 The ACF and PACF of an ARMA @math Process 3.2.1 Calculation of the ACVF 3.2.2 The Autocorrelation Function 3.2.3 The Partial Autocorrelation Function 3.3 Forecasting ARMA Processes 1.7 Problems 4 SPECTRAL ANALYSIS 4.1 Spectral Densities 4.2 The Periodogram 4.3 Time-Invariant Linear Filters 4.4 The Spectral Density of an ARMA Process 1.7 Problems 5 MODELLING AND PREDICTION WITH ARMA PROCESSES 5.1 Preliminary Estimation 5.1.1 Yule-Walker Estimation 5.1.3 The Innovations Algorithm 5.1.4 The Hannan-Rissanen Algorithm 5.2 Maximum Likelihood Estimation 5.3 Diagnostic Checking 5.3.1 The Graph of $ =1, ,n 5.3.2 The Sample ACF of the Residuals Spam is a key problem in electronic communication, including large-scale email systems and the growing number of blogs. Content-based filtering is one reliable method of combating this threat in its various forms, but some academic researchers and industrial practitioners disagree on how best to filter spam. The former have advocated the use of Support Vector Machines (SVMs) for content-based filtering, as this machine learning methodology gives state-of-the-art performance for text classification. However, similar performance gains have yet to be demonstrated for online spam filtering. Additionally, practitioners cite the high cost of SVMs as reason to prefer faster (if less statistically robust) Bayesian methods. In this paper, we offer a resolution to this controversy. First, we show that online SVMs indeed give state-of-the-art classification performance on online spam filtering on large benchmark data sets. Second, we show that nearly equivalent performance may be achieved by a Relaxed Online SVM (ROSVM) at greatly reduced computational cost. Our results are experimentally verified on email spam, blog spam, and splog detection tasks.