Abstract We introduce a game-theoretic model to investigate the strategic interaction between a cyber insurance policyholder whose premium depends on her self-reported security level and an insurer with the power to audit the security level upon receiving an indemnity claim. Audits can reveal fraudulent (or simply careless) policyholders not following reported security procedures, in which case the insurer can refuse to indemnify the policyholder. However, the insurer has to bear an audit cost even when the policyholders have followed the prescribed security procedures. As audits can be expensive, a key problem insurers face is to devise an auditing strategy to deter policyholders from misrepresenting their security levels to gain a premium discount. This decision-making problem was motivated by conducting interviews with underwriters and reviewing regulatory filings in the US; we discovered that premiums are determined by security posture, yet this is often self-reported and insurers are concerned by whether security procedures are practised as reported by the policyholders. To address this problem, we model this interaction as a Bayesian game of incomplete information and devise optimal auditing strategies for the insurers considering the possibility that the policyholder may misrepresent her security level. To the best of our knowledge, this work is the first theoretical consideration of post-incident claims management in cyber security. Our model captures the trade-off between the incentive to exaggerate security posture during the application process and the possibility of punishment for non-compliance with reported security policies. Simulations demonstrate that common sense techniques are not as efficient at providing effective cyber insurance audit decisions as the ones computed using game theory.
Our contribution to the literature is the first theoretical consideration of post-incident claims management. Our model captures the trade-off between the incentive to exaggerate security posture to receive a premium discount and the possibility of punishment for non-compliance with the reported security policies. We consider misrepresenting security posture a strategic choice for the insured and allow the insurer to respond by auditing claims. Not allowing the insurer to do so leads to market collapse @cite_10 .
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An insurer has to know the risks faced by a potential client to accurately determine an insurance premium offer. However, while the potential client might have a good understanding of its own security practices, it may also have an incentive not to disclose them honestly since the resulting information asymmetry could work in its favor. This information asymmetry engenders adverse selection, which can result in unfair premiums and reduced adoption of cyber-insurance. To overcome information asymmetry, insurers often require potential clients to self-report their risks. Still, clients do not have any incentive to perform thorough self-audits or to provide comprehensive reports. As a result, insurers have to complement self-reporting with external security audits to verify the clients’ reports. Since these audits can be very expensive, a key problem faced by insurers is to devise an auditing strategy that deters clients from dishonest reporting using a minimal number of audits. To solve this problem, we model the interactions between a potential client and an insurer as a two-player signaling game. One player represents the client, who knows its actual security-investment level, but may report any level to the insurer. The other player represents the insurer, who knows only the random distribution from which the security level was drawn, but may discover the actual level using an expensive audit. We study the players’ equilibrium strategies and provide numerical illustrations. Abstract This paper characterizes the equilibrium of an insurance market where opportunist policyholders may file fraudulent claims. We assume that insurance policies are traded in a competitive market where insurers cannot distinguish honest policyholders from opportunists. The insurer-policyholder relationship is modelled as an incomplete information game, in which the insurer decides to audit or not. The market equilibrium depends on whether insurers can credibly commit or not to their audit strategies. We show that a no commitment equilibrium results in a welfare loss for honest individuals, which may even be so large that the insurance market completely shuts down. We also show that transferring monitoring costs to a budget-balanced common agency would mitigate the commitment problem. Recent works on Internet risk management have proposed the idea of cyber-insurance to eliminate risks due to security threats, which cannot be tackled through traditional means such as by using antivirus and antivirus softwares. In reality, an Internet user faces risks due to security attacks as well as risks due to non-security related failures (e.g., reliability faults in the form of hardware crash, buffer overflow, etc.). These risk types are often indistinguishable by a naive user. However, a cyber-insurance agency would most likely insure risks only due to security attacks. In this case, it becomes a challenge for an Internet user to choose the right type of cyber-insurance contract as traditional optimal contracts, i.e., contracts for security attacks only, might prove to be sub-optimal for himself. In this paper, we address the problem of analyzing cyber-insurance solutions when a user faces risks due to both, security as well as non-security related failures. We propose Aegis, a simple and novel cyber-insurance model in which the user accepts a fraction (strictly positive) of loss recovery on himself and transfers rest of the loss recovery on the cyber-insurance agency. We mathematically show that only under conditions when buying cyber-insurance is mandatory, given an option, risk-averse Internet users would prefer Aegis contracts to traditional cyber-insurance contracts, under all premium types. This result firmly establishes the non-existence of traditional cyber-insurance markets when Aegis contracts are offered to users. We also derive an interesting counterintuitive result related to the Aegis framework: we show that an increase(decrease) in the premium of an Aegis contract may not always lead to decrease(increase) in its user demand. In the process, we also state the conditions under which the latter trend and its converse emerge. Our work proposes a new model of cyber-insurance for Internet security that extends all previous related models by accounting for the extra dimension of non-insurable risks. Aegis also incentivizes Internet users to take up more personal responsibility for protecting their systems. Managing security risks in the Internet has so far mostly involved methods to reduce the risks and the severity of the damages. Those methods (such as firewalls, intrusion detection and prevention, etc) reduce but do not eliminate risk, and the question remains on how to handle the residual risk. In this paper, we take a new approach to the problem of Internet security and advocate managing this residual risk by buying insurance against it. Using insurance in the Internet raises several questions because entities in the Internet face correlated risks, which means that insurance claims will likely be correlated, making those entities less attractive to insurance companies. Furthermore, risks are interdependent, meaning that the decision by an entity to invest in security and self-protect affects the risk faced by others. We analyze the impact of these externalities on the security investments of users using a simple 2-agent model. Our key results are that there are sound economic reasons for agents to not invest much in self-protection, and that insurance is a desirable incentive mechanism which pushes agents over a threshold into a desirable state where they all invest in self-protection. In other words, insurance increases the level of self-protection, and therefore the level of security, in the Internet. Therefore, we believe that insurance should become an important component of risk management in the Internet. We consider arbitrary risk-averse users, whose costs of improving security are given by an arbitrary convex function. In our model, user probability to incur damage (from an attack) depends on both his own security and network security: thus, security is interdependent. We introduce two user types (normal and malicious), and allow one user type (malicious users) to subvert insurer monitoring, even if insurers perfectly enforce (at zero cost) security levels of normal users. We prove that with malicious users present, equilibrium contract that specifies user security fails to exist. We demonstrate, in a general setting, a failure of cyber-insurers to underwrite contracts conditioning the premiums on security. We consider arbitrary risk-averse users, whose costs of improving security are given by an arbitrary convex function. In our model, user probability to incur damage (from an attack) depends on both his own security and network security: thus, security is interdependent. We introduce two user types (normal and malicious), and allow one user type (malicious users) to subvert insurer monitoring, even if insurers perfectly enforce (at zero cost) security levels of normal users. We prove that with malicious users present, equilibrium contract that specifies user security fails to exist. We demonstrate, in a general setting, a failure of cyber-insurers to underwrite contracts conditioning the premiums on security. This paper investigates how competitive cyber-insurers affect network security and welfare of the networked society. In our model, a user's probability to incur damage (from being attacked) depends on both his security and the network security, with the latter taken by individual users as given. First, we consider cyberinsurers who cannot observe (and thus, affect) individual user security. This asymmetric information causes moral hazard. Then, for most parameters, no equilibrium exists: the insurance market is missing. Even if an equilibrium exists, the insurance contract covers only a minor fraction of the damage; network security worsens relative to the no-insurance equilibrium. Second, we consider insurers with perfect information about their users' security. Here, user security is perfectly enforceable (zero cost); each insurance contract stipulates the required user security. The unique equilibrium contract covers the entire user damage. Still, for most parameters, network security worsens relative to the no-insurance equilibrium. Although cyber-insurance improves user welfare, in general, competitive cyber-insurers fail to improve network security. We survey recent developments in the economic analysis of insurance fraud. The paper first sets out the two main approaches to insurance fraud that have been developped in the literature, namely the costly state verification and the costly state falsification. Under costly state verification, the insurer can verify claims at some cost. Claims' verification may be deterministic or random, and it can be conditioned on fraud signals perceived by insurers. Under costly state falsification, the policyholder expends resources for the building-up of his or her claim not to be detected. We also consider the effects of adverse selection, in a context where insurers cannot distinguish honest policyholders from potential defrauders, as well as the consequences of credibility constraints on anti-fraud policies. Finally, we focus attention on the risk of collusion between policyholders and insurance agents or service providers. We propose a comprehensive formal framework to classify all market models of cyber-insurance we are aware of. The framework features a common terminology and deals with the specific properties of cyber-risk in a unified way: interdependent security, correlated risk, and information asymmetries. A survey of existing models, tabulated according to our framework, reveals a discrepancy between informal arguments in favor of cyber-insurance as a tool to align incentives for better network security, and analytical results questioning the viability of a market for cyber-insurance. Using our framework, we show which parameters should be considered and endogenized in future models to close this gap. Pay-As-You-Drive insurance schemes are establishing themselves as the future of car insurance. However, their current implementations, in which fine-grained location data are sent to insurers, entail a serious privacy risk. We present PriPAYD, a system where the premium calculations are performed locally in the vehicle, and only aggregated data are sent to the insurance company, without leaking location information. Our design is based on well-understood security techniques that ensure its correct functioning. We discuss the viability of PriPAYD in terms of cost, security, and ease of certification. We demonstrate that PriPAYD is possible through a proof-of-concept implementation that shows how privacy can be obtained at a very reasonable extra cost. High correlation in failure of information systems due to worms and viruses has been cited as major impediment to cyber-insurance. However, of the many cyber-risk classes that influence failure of information systems, not all exhibit similar correlation properties. In this paper, we introduce a new classification of correlation properties of cyber-risks based on a twin-tier approach. At the first tier, is the correlation of cyber-risks within a firm i.e. correlated failure of multiple systems on its internal network. At second tier, is the correlation in risk at a global level i.e. correlation across independent firms in an insurer’s portfolio. Various classes of cyber-risks exhibit dierent level of correlation at two tiers, for instance, insider attacks exhibit high internal but low global correlation. While internal risk correlation within a firm influences its decision to seek insurance, the global correlation influences insurers’ decision in setting the premium. Citing real data we study the combined dynamics of the two-step risk arrival process to determine conditions conducive to the existence of cyber-insurance market. We address technical, managerial and policy choices influencing the correlation at both steps and the business implications thereof. Cyber insurance is a valuable approach to mitigate further the cyber risk and its loss in addition to the deployment of technological cyber defense solutions, such as intrusion detection systems and firewalls. An effective cyber insurance policy can reduce the number of successful cyber attacks by incentivizing the adoption of preventative measures and the implementation of best practices of the users. To study cyber insurance in a holistic manner, we first establish a bi-level game-theoretic model that nests a zero-sum game in a moral-hazard type of principal-agent game to capture complex interactions between a user, an attacker, and the insurer. The game framework provides an integrative view of the cyber insurance and enables a systematic design of incentive compatible and attack-aware insurance policy. The framework is further extended to study a network of users and their risk interdependencies. We completely characterize the equilibrium solutions of the bi-level game. Our analytical results provide a fundamental limit on insurability, predict the Peltzman effect, and reveal the principles of zero operating profit and the linear insurance policy of the insurer. We provide analytical results and numerical experiments to corroborate the analytical results and demonstrate the network effects as a result of the strategic interactions among the three types of players. We develop a two-sided multiplayer model of security in which attackers aim to deny service and defenders strategize to secure their assets. Attackers benefit from the successful compromise of target systems, however, may suffer penalties for increased attack activities. Defenders weigh the force of an attack against the cost of security. We consider security decision-making in tightly and loosely coupled networks and allow defense expenditures in protection and self-insurance technologies. Despite general awareness of the importance of keeping one's system secure, and widespread availability of consumer security technologies, actual investment in security remains highly variable across the Internet population, allowing attacks such as distributed denial-of-service (DDoS) and spam distribution to continue unabated. By modeling security investment decision-making in established (e.g., weakest-link, best-shot) and novel games (e.g., weakest-target), and allowing expenditures in self-protection versus self-insurance technologies, we can examine how incentives may shift between investment in a public good (protection) and a private good (insurance), subject to factors such as network size, type of attack, loss probability, loss magnitude, and cost of technology. We can also characterize Nash equilibria and social optima for different classes of attacks and defenses. In the weakest-target game, an interesting result is that, for almost all parameter settings, more effort is exerted at Nash equilibrium than at the social optimum. We may attribute this to the "strategic uncertainty" of players seeking to self-protect at just slightly above the lowest protection level. Extensible database systems allow users to create new data types representing spatial, text, image, and other multimedia objects, and functions which operate on the new types[S96]. The new data types and functions can be used as predicates in SQL queries. Consider an insurance industry application, built using an extensible DBMS that has user defined extensions for spatial, text, date time, and other business objects. The extensions support new data types such as point, circle, etc., and functions such as confains, interval, text-contains, etc. Let the tables Policies (policy-id, name, address, location, vehicle-type, . . .) and Claims (policy-id, claim-tag, accident-date, accident-location, accident-report, . . .) represent the partial schema containing both SQL’92 and user defined data types (UDTs). Consider a scenario in a targeted marketing application that requires a mailing list of all customers within 5 miles of point L, who have insured a ‘sports utility vehicle’ and were involved in a ‘rear-ended’ accident in the past 3 years. The corresponding SQL query would be: SELECT P.name, P.address FROM Policies P, Claims C WHERE coniuins(P.location, circle(L, 5)) AND P.vehicle type=“Sports Utility” AND P.policy-id = C.policy-id AND texl_contuins(C.accident-report, “rear-ended”) AND inietval(C.accident-date,current_date)<3 years Today people increasingly have the opportunity to opt-in to "usage-based" automotive insurance programs for reducing insurance premiums. In these programs, participants install devices in their vehicles that monitor their driving behavior, which raises some privacy concerns. Some devices collect fine-grained speed data to monitor driving habits. Companies that use these devices claim that their approach is privacy-preserving because speedometer measurements do not have physical locations. However, we show that with knowledge of the user's home location, as the insurance companies have, speed data is sufficient to discover driving routes and destinations when trip data is collected over a period of weeks. To demonstrate the real-world applicability of our approach we applied our algorithm, elastic pathing, to data collected over hundreds of driving trips occurring over several months. With this data and our approach, we were able to predict trip destinations to within 250 meters of ground truth in 10 of the traces and within 500 meters in 20 of the traces. This result, combined with the amount of speed data that is being collected by insurance companies, constitutes a substantial breach of privacy because a person's regular driving pattern can be deduced with repeated examples of the same paths with just a few weeks of monitoring. Formal analyses of incentives for compliance with network protocols often appeal to gametheoretic models and concepts. Applications of game-theoretic analysis to network security have generally been limited to highly stylized models, where simplified environments enable tractable study of key strategic variables. We propose a simulation-based approach to gametheoretic analysis of protocol compliance, for scenarios with large populations of agents and large policy spaces. We define a general procedure for systematically exploring a structured policy space, directed expressly to resolve the qualitative classification of equilibrium behavior as compliant or non-compliant. The techniques are illustrated and exercised through an extensive case study analyzing compliance incentives for introduction-based routing. We find that the benefits of complying with the protocol are particularly strong for nodes subject to attack, and the overall compliance level achieved in equilibrium, while not universal, is sufficient to support the desired security goals of the protocol. Regulatory standards, designed to protect the safety, security, and privacy of the public, govern numerous areas of software intensive systems. Project personnel must therefore demonstrate that an as-built system meets all relevant regulatory codes. Current methods for demonstrating compliance rely either on after-the-fact audits, which can lead to significant refactoring when regulations are not met, or else require analysts to construct and use traceability matrices to demonstrate compliance. Manual tracing can be prohibitively time-consuming; however automated trace retrieval methods are not very effective due to the vocabulary mismatches that often occur between regulatory codes and product level requirements. This paper introduces and evaluates two machine-learning methods, designed to improve the quality of traces generated between regulatory codes and product level requirements. The first approach uses manually created traceability matrices to train a trace classifier, while the second approach uses web-mining techniques to reconstruct the original trace query. The techniques were evaluated against security regulations from the USA government's Health Insurance Privacy and Portability Act (HIPAA) traced against ten healthcare related requirements specifications. Results demonstrated improvements for the subset of HIPAA regulations that exhibited high fan-out behavior across the requirements datasets. We consider a model for price calculations based on three components: a fair premium; price loadings reflecting general expenses and solvency requirements; and profit. The first two components are typically evaluated on a yearly basis, while the third is viewed from a longer perspective. When considering the value of customers over a period of several years, and examining policy renewals and cross-selling in relation to price adjustments, many insurers may prefer to reduce their short-term benefits so as to focus on their most profitable customers and the long-term value. We show how models of personalized treatment learning can be used to select the policy holders that should be targeted in a company’s marketing strategies. An empirical application of the causal conditional inference tree method illustrates how best to implement a personalized cross-sell marketing campaign in this framework. Abstract For many data mining problems, obtaining labels is costly and time consuming, if not practically infeasible. In addition, unlabeled data often includes categorical or ordinal features which, compared with numerical features, can present additional challenges. We propose a new unsupervised spectral ranking method for anomaly (SRA). We illustrate that the spectral optimization in SRA can be viewed as a relaxation of an unsupervised SVM problem. We demonstrate that the first non-principal eigenvector of a Laplacian matrix is linked to a bi-class classification strength measure which can be used to rank anomalies. Using the first non-principal eigenvector of the Laplacian matrix directly, the proposed SRA generates an anomaly ranking either with respect to the majority class or with respect to two main patterns. The choice of the ranking reference can be made based on whether the cardinality of the smaller class (positive or negative) is sufficiently large. Using an auto insurance claim data set but ignoring labels when generating ranking, we show that our proposed SRA significantly surpasses existing outlier-based fraud detection methods. Finally we demonstrate that, while proposed SRA yields good performance for a few similarity measures for the auto insurance claim data, notably ones based on the Hamming distance, choosing appropriate similarity measures for a fraud detection problem remains crucial. Models of customer churn are based on historical data and are used to predict the probability that a client switches to another company. We address customer retention in insurance. Rather than concentrating on those customers with high probability of leaving, we propose a new procedure that can be used to identify the target customers who are likely to respond positively to a retention activity. Our approach is based on random forests and can be useful to anticipate the success of marketing actions aimed at reducing customer attrition. We also discuss the type of insurance portfolio database that can be used for this purpose.