In this paper we address the problem of predicting a time series using the ARMA (autoregressive moving average) model, under minimal assumptions on the noise terms. Using regret minimization techniques, we develop effective online learning algorithms for the prediction problem, without assuming that the noise terms are Gaussian, identically distributed or even independent. Furthermore, we show that our algorithm's performances asymptotically approaches the performance of the best ARMA model in hindsight.
Furthermore, an online approach that relies on regret minimization techniques was never considered for ARMA prediction, and hence regret bounds of the type we are interested simply do not exist. Yet, results on the convergence rate of the coefficient vectors do exist, and regret bounds can be derived from these results. E.g., in @cite_2 such results are presented, and a regret bound of @math can be derived for the squared loss. We are not familiar of these kind of results for general convex loss functions.
@cite_2
2160220160
We introduce the general and powerful scheme of predicting information re-use in optimization algorithms. This allows us to devise a computationally efficient algorithm for bandit convex optimization with new state-of-the-art guarantees for both Lipschitz loss functions and loss functions with Lipschitz gradients. This is the first algorithm admitting both a polynomial time complexity and a regret that is polynomial in the dimension of the action space that improves upon the original regret bound for Lipschitz loss functions, achieving a regret of @math . Our algorithm further improves upon the best existing polynomial-in-dimension bound (both computationally and in terms of regret) for loss functions with Lipschitz gradients, achieving a regret of @math . We study the online convex optimization problem, in which an online algorithm has to make repeated decisions with convex loss functions and hopes to achieve a small regret. We consider a natural restriction of this problem in which the loss functions have a small deviation, measured by the sum of the distances between every two consecutive loss functions, according to some distance metrics. We show that for the linear and general smooth convex loss functions, an online algorithm modified from the gradient descend algorithm can achieve a regret which only scales as the square root of the deviation. For the closely related problem of prediction with expert advice, we show that an online algorithm modified from the multiplicative update algorithm can also achieve a similar regret bound for a different measure of deviation. Finally, for loss functions which are strictly convex, we show that an online algorithm modified from the online Newton step algorithm can achieve a regret which is only logarithmic in terms of the deviation, and as an application, we can also have such a logarithmic regret for the portfolio management problem. Consider a sequence of bits where we are trying to predict the next bit from the previous bits. Assume we are allowed to say 'predict 0' or 'predict 1', and our payoff is +1 if the prediction is correct and -1 otherwise. We will say that at each point in time the loss of an algorithm is the number of wrong predictions minus the number of right predictions so far. In this paper we are interested in algorithms that have essentially zero (expected) loss over any string at any point in time and yet have small regret with respect to always predicting 0 or always predicting 1. For a sequence of length @math our algorithm has regret @math and loss @math in expectation for all strings. We show that the tradeoff between loss and regret is optimal up to constant factors. Our techniques extend to the general setting of @math experts, where the related problem of trading off regret to the best expert for regret to the special' expert has been studied by Even- (COLT'07). We obtain essentially zero loss with respect to the special expert and optimal loss regret tradeoff, improving upon the results of Even- and settling the main question left open in their paper. The strong loss bounds of the algorithm have some surprising consequences. A simple iterative application of our algorithm gives essentially optimal regret bounds at multiple time scales, bounds with respect to @math -shifting optima as well as regret bounds with respect to higher norms of the input sequence. Bandit convex optimization is a special case of online convex optimization with partial information. In this setting, a player attempts to minimize a sequence of adversarially generated convex loss functions, while only observing the value of each function at a single point. In some cases, the minimax regret of these problems is known to be strictly worse than the minimax regret in the corresponding full information setting. We introduce the multi-point bandit setting, in which the player can query each loss function at multiple points. When the player is allowed to query each function at two points, we prove regret bounds that closely resemble bounds for the full information case. This suggests that knowing the value of each loss function at two points is almost as useful as knowing the value of each function everywhere. When the player is allowed to query each function at d+1 points (d being the dimension of the space), we prove regret bounds that are exactly equivalent to full information bounds for smooth functions. The problem of bipartite ranking, where instances are labeled positive or negative and the goal is to learn a scoring function that minimizes the probability of mis-ranking a pair of positive and negative instances (or equivalently, that maximizes the area under the ROC curve), has been widely studied in recent years. A dominant theoretical and algorithmic framework for the problem has been to reduce bipartite ranking to pairwise classification; in particular, it is well known that the bipartite ranking regret can be formulated as a pairwise classification regret, which in turn can be upper bounded using usual regret bounds for classification problems. Recently, (2011) showed regret bounds for bipartite ranking in terms of the regret associated with balanced versions of the standard (non-pairwise) logistic and exponential losses. In this paper, we show that such (nonpairwise) surrogate regret bounds for bipartite ranking can be obtained in terms of a broad class of proper (composite) losses that we term as strongly proper. Our proof technique is much simpler than that of (2011), and relies on properties of proper (composite) losses as elucidated recently by Reid and Williamson (2010, 2011) and others. Our result yields explicit surrogate bounds (with no hidden balancing terms) in terms of a variety of strongly proper losses, including for example logistic, exponential, squared and squared hinge losses as special cases. An important consequence is that standard algorithms minimizing a (non-pairwise) strongly proper loss, such as logistic regression and boosting algorithms (assuming a universal function class and appropriate regularization), are in fact consistent for bipartite ranking; moreover, our results allow us to quantify the bipartite ranking regret in terms of the corresponding surrogate regret. We also obtain tighter surrogate bounds under certain low-noise conditions via a recent result of Clemencon and Robbiano (2011). We study the generalization performance of online learning algorithms trained on samples coming from a dependent source of data. We show that the generalization error of any stable online algorithm concentrates around its regret-an easily computable statistic of the online performance of the algorithm-when the underlying ergodic process is β- or φ -mixing. We show high-probability error bounds assuming the loss function is convex, and we also establish sharp convergence rates and deviation bounds for strongly convex losses and several linear prediction problems such as linear and logistic regression, least-squares SVM, and boosting on dependent data. In addition, our results have straightforward applications to stochastic optimization with dependent data, and our analysis requires only martingale convergence arguments; we need not rely on more powerful statistical tools such as empirical process theory. This paper examines the generalization properties of online convex programming algorithms when the loss function is Lipschitz and strongly convex. Our main result is a sharp bound, that holds with high probability, on the excess risk of the output of an online algorithm in terms of the average regret. This allows one to use recent algorithms with logarithmic cumulative regret guarantees to achieve fast convergence rates for the excess risk with high probability. As a corollary, we characterize the convergence rate of PEGASOS (with high probability), a recently proposed method for solving the SVM optimization problem. Online learning is the process of answering a sequence of questions given knowledge of the correct answers to previous questions and possibly additional available information. Answering questions in an intelligent fashion and being able to make rational decisions as a result is a basic feature of everyday life. Will it rain today (so should I take an umbrella)? Should I fight the wild animal that is after me, or should I run away? Should I open an attachment in an email message or is it a virus? The study of online learning algorithms is thus an important domain in machine learning, and one that has interesting theoretical properties and practical applications. This dissertation describes a novel framework for the design and analysis of online learning algorithms. We show that various online learning algorithms can all be derived as special cases of our algorithmic framework. This unified view explains the properties of existing algorithms and also enables us to derive several new interesting algorithms. Online learning is performed in a sequence of consecutive rounds, where at each round the learner is given a question and is required to provide an answer to this question. After predicting an answer, the correct answer is revealed and the learner suffers a loss if there is a discrepancy between his answer and the correct one. The algorithmic framework for online learning we propose in this dissertation stems from a connection that we make between the notions of regret in online learning and weak duality in convex optimization. Regret bounds are the common thread in the analysis of online learning algorithms. A regret bound measures the performance of an online algorithm relative to the performance of a competing prediction mechanism, called a competing hypothesis. The competing hypothesis can be chosen in hindsight from a class of hypotheses, after observing the entire sequence of question- answer pairs. Over the years, competitive analysis techniques have been refined and extended to numerous prediction problems by employing complex and varied notions of progress toward a good competing hypothesis. We propose a new perspective on regret bounds which is based on the notion of duality in convex optimization. Regret bounds are universal in the sense that they hold for any possible fixed hypothesis in a given hypothesis class. We therefore cast the universal bound as a lower bound We apply the exponential weight algorithm, introduced and Littlestone and Warmuth [26]and by Vovk [35]to the problem of predicting a binary sequence almost as well as the best biased coin. We first show that for the case of the logarithmic loss, the derived algorithm is equivalent to the Bayes algorithm with Jeffreys prior, that was studied by Xie and Barron [38]under probabilistic assumptions. We derive a uniform bound on the regret which holds for any sequence. We also show that if the empirical distribution of the sequence is bounded away from 0 and from 1, then, as the length of the sequence increases to infinity, the difference between this bound and a corresponding bound on the average case regret of the same algorithm (which is asymptotically optimal in that case) is only 1 2. We show that this gap of 1 2 is necessary by calculating the regret of the min–max optimal algorithm for this problem and showing that the asymptotic upper bound is tight. We also study the application of this algorithm to the square loss and show that the algorithm that is derived in this case is different from the Bayes algorithm and is better than it for prediction in the worstcase. We consider the adversarial convex bandit problem and we build the first @math -time algorithm with @math -regret for this problem. To do so we introduce three new ideas in the derivative-free optimization literature: (i) kernel methods, (ii) a generalization of Bernoulli convolutions, and (iii) a new annealing schedule for exponential weights (with increasing learning rate). The basic version of our algorithm achieves @math -regret, and we show that a simple variant of this algorithm can be run in @math -time per step at the cost of an additional @math factor in the regret. These results improve upon the @math -regret and @math -time result of the first two authors, and the @math -regret and @math -time result of Hazan and Li. Furthermore we conjecture that another variant of the algorithm could achieve @math -regret, and moreover that this regret is unimprovable (the current best lower bound being @math and it is achieved with linear functions). For the simpler situation of zeroth order stochastic convex optimization this corresponds to the conjecture that the optimal query complexity is of order @math . Prediction from expert advice is a fundamental problem in machine learning. A major pillar of the field is the existence of learning algorithms whose average loss approaches that of the best expert in hindsight (in other words, whose average regret approaches zero). Traditionally the regret of online algorithms was bounded in terms of the number of prediction rounds. Cesa-Bianchi, Mansour and Stoltz (Mach. Learn. 66(2---3):21---352, 2007) posed the question whether it is be possible to bound the regret of an online algorithm by the variation of the observed costs. In this paper we resolve this question, and prove such bounds in the fully adversarial setting, in two important online learning scenarios: prediction from expert advice, and online linear optimization. AUC (Area Under ROC Curve) has been an important criterion widely used in diverse learning tasks. To optimize AUC, many learning approaches have been developed, most working with pairwise surrogate losses. Thus, it is important to study the AUC consistency based on minimizing pairwise surrogate losses. In this paper, we introduce the generalized calibration for AUC optimization, and prove that it is a necessary condition for AUC consistency. We then provide a sufficient condition for AUC consistency, and show its usefulness in studying the consistency of various surrogate losses, as well as the invention of new consistent losses. We further derive regret bounds for exponential and logistic losses, and present regret bounds for more general surrogate losses in the realizable setting. Finally, we prove regret bounds that disclose the equivalence between the pairwise exponential loss of AUC and univariate exponential loss of accuracy. We study an equivalence of (i) deterministic pathwise statements appearing in the online learning literature (termed regret bounds), (ii) high-probability tail bounds for the supremum of a collection of martingales (of a specific form arising from uniform laws of large numbers for martingales), and (iii) in-expectation bounds for the supremum. By virtue of the equivalence, we prove exponential tail bounds for norms of Banach space valued martingales via deterministic regret bounds for the online mirror descent algorithm with an adaptive step size. We extend these results beyond the linear structure of the Banach space: we define a notion of martingale type for general classes of real-valued functions and show its equivalence (up to a logarithmic factor) to various sequential complexities of the class (in particular, the sequential Rademacher complexity and its offset version). For classes with the general martingale type 2, we exhibit a finer notion of variation that allows partial adaptation to the function indexing the martingale. Our proof technique rests on sequential symmetrization and on certifying the existence of regret minimization strategies for certain online prediction problems. We study online aggregation of the predictions of experts, and first show new second-order regret bounds in the standard setting, which are obtained via a version of the Prod algorithm (and also a version of the polynomially weighted average algorithm) with multiple learning rates. These bounds are in terms of excess losses, the differences between the instantaneous losses suffered by the algorithm and the ones of a given expert. We then demonstrate the interest of these bounds in the context of experts that report their confidences as a number in the interval [0; 1] using a generic reduction to the standard setting. We conclude by two other applications in the standard setting, which improve the known bounds in case of small excess losses and show a bounded regret against i.i.d. sequences of losses. We study the stochastic multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem in the presence of side-observations across actions. In our model, choosing an action provides additional side observations for a subset of the remaining actions. One example of this model occurs in the problem of targeting users in online social networks where users respond to their friends's activity, thus providing information about each other's preferences. Our contributions are as follows: 1) We derive an asymptotic (with respect to time) lower bound (as a function of the network structure) on the regret (loss) of any uniformly good policy that achieves the maximum long term average reward. 2) We propose two policies - a randomized policy and a policy based on the well-known upper confidence bound (UCB) policies, both of which explore each action at a rate that is a function of its network position. We show that these policies achieve the asymptotic lower bound on the regret up to a multiplicative factor independent of network structure. The upper bound guarantees on the regret of these policies are better than those of existing policies. Finally, we use numerical examples on a real-world social network to demonstrate the significant benefits obtained by our policies against other existing policies. In this paper, we consider the problem of preserving privacy in the online learning setting. We study the problem in the online convex programming (OCP) framework---a popular online learning setting with several interesting theoretical and practical implications---while using differential privacy as the formal privacy measure. For this problem, we distill two critical attributes that a private OCP algorithm should have in order to provide reasonable privacy as well as utility guarantees: 1) linearly decreasing sensitivity, i.e., as new data points arrive their effect on the learning model decreases, 2) sub-linear regret bound---regret bound is a popular goodness utility measure of an online learning algorithm. Given an OCP algorithm that satisfies these two conditions, we provide a general framework to convert the given algorithm into a privacy preserving OCP algorithm with good (sub-linear) regret. We then illustrate our approach by converting two popular online learning algorithms into their differentially private variants while guaranteeing sub-linear regret ( @math ). Next, we consider the special case of online linear regression problems, a practically important class of online learning problems, for which we generalize an approach by to provide a differentially private algorithm with just @math regret. Finally, we show that our online learning framework can be used to provide differentially private algorithms for offline learning as well. For the offline learning problem, our approach obtains better error bounds as well as can handle larger class of problems than the existing state-of-the-art methods We propose a novel online learning method for minimizing regret in large extensive-form games. The approach learns a function approximator online to estimate the regret for choosing a particular action. A no-regret algorithm uses these estimates in place of the true regrets to define a sequence of policies. We prove the approach sound by providing a bound relating the quality of the function approximation and regret of the algorithm. A corollary being that the method is guaranteed to converge to a Nash equilibrium in self-play so long as the regrets are ultimately realizable by the function approximator. Our technique can be understood as a principled generalization of existing work on abstraction in large games; in our work, both the abstraction as well as the equilibrium are learned during self-play. We demonstrate empirically the method achieves higher quality strategies than state-of-the-art abstraction techniques given the same resources. This paper describes a new online convex optimization method which incorporates a family of candidate dynamical models and establishes novel tracking regret bounds that scale with the comparator's deviation from the best dynamical model in this family. Previous online optimization methods are designed to have a total accumulated loss comparable to that of the best comparator sequence, and existing tracking or shifting regret bounds scale with the overall variation of the comparator sequence. In many practical scenarios, however, the environment is non-stationary and comparator sequences with small variation are quite weak, resulting in large losses. The proposed Dynamic Mirror Descent method, in contrast, can yield low regret relative to highly variable comparator sequences by both tracking the best dynamical model and forming predictions based on that model. This concept is demonstrated empirically in the context of sequential compressive observations of a dynamic scene and tracking a dynamic social network. We consider online prediction with expert advice. Over the course of many trials, the goal of the learning algorithm is to achieve small additional loss (i.e. regret) compared to the loss of the best from a set of K experts. The two most popular algorithms are Hedge Weighted Majority and Follow the Perturbed Leader (FPL). The latter algorithm first perturbs the loss of each expert by independent additive noise drawn from a fixed distribution, and then predicts with the expert of minimum perturbed loss (“the leader”) where ties are broken uniformly at random. To achieve the optimal worst-case regret as a function of the lossL of the best expert in hindsight, the two types of algorithms need to tune their learning rate or noise magnitude, respectively, as a function ofL . Instead of perturbing the losses of the experts with additive noise, we randomly set them to 0 or 1 before selecting the leader. We show that our perturbations are an instance of dropout — because experts may be interpreted as features — although for non-binary losses the dropout probability needs to be made dependent on the losses to get good regret bounds. We show that this simple, tuning-free version of the FPL algorithm achieves two feats: optimal worst-case O( p L lnK + lnK) regret as a function ofL , and optimalO(lnK) regret when the loss vectors are drawn i.i.d. from a fixed distribution and there is a gap between the expected loss of the best expert and all others. A number of recent algorithms from the Hedge family (AdaHedge and FlipFlop) also achieve this, but they employ sophisticated tuning regimes. The dropout perturbation of the losses of the experts result in different noise distributions for each expert (because they depend on the expert’s total loss) and curiously enough no additional tuning is needed: the choice of dropout probability only affects the constants. In this paper, we study a special bandit setting of online stochastic linear optimization, where only one-bit of information is revealed to the learner at each round. This problem has found many applications including online advertisement and online recommendation. We assume the binary feedback is a random variable generated from the logit model, and aim to minimize the regret defined by the unknown linear function. Although the existing method for generalized linear bandit can be applied to our problem, the high computational cost makes it impractical for real-world problems. To address this challenge, we develop an efficient online learning algorithm by exploiting particular structures of the observation model. Specifically, we adopt online Newton step to estimate the unknown parameter and derive a tight confidence region based on the exponential concavity of the logistic loss. Our analysis shows that the proposed algorithm achieves a regret bound of @math , which matches the optimal result of stochastic linear bandits.