We present a data-driven framework for incorporating side information in dynamic optimization under uncertainty. Specifically, our approach uses predictive machine learning methods (such as k-nearest neighbors, kernel regression, and random forests) to weight the relative importance of various data-driven uncertainty sets in a robust optimization formulation. Through a novel measure concentration result for local machine learning methods, we prove that the proposed framework is asymptotically optimal for stochastic dynamic optimization with covariates. We also describe a general-purpose approximation for the proposed framework, based on overlapping linear decision rules, which is computationally tractable and produces high-quality solutions for dynamic problems with many stages. Across a variety of examples in shipment planning, inventory management, and finance, our method achieves improvements of up to 15 over alternatives and requires less than one minute of computation time on problems with twelve stages.
This paper follows a recent body of literature on data-driven optimization under uncertainty in operations research and management science. Much of this work has focused on the paradigm of distributionally robust optimization, in which the optimal solution is that which performs best in expectation over a worst-case probability distribution from an ambiguity set. Motivated by probabilistic guarantees, distributionally robust optimization has found particular applicability in data-driven settings in which the ambiguity set is constructed using historical data, such as @cite_7 @cite_9 @cite_5 @cite_14 . In particular, the final steps in our convergence result () draw heavily from similar techniques from @cite_5 and @cite_10 . In contrast to previous work, this paper develops a new measure concentration result for the weighted empirical distribution () which enables machine learning and covariates to be incorporated into sample robust optimization and Wasserstein-based distributionally robust optimization for the first time.
@cite_14 @cite_7 @cite_9 @cite_5 @cite_10
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Distributionally robust optimization is a paradigm for decision making under uncertainty where the uncertain problem data are governed by a probability distribution that is itself subject to uncertainty. The distribution is then assumed to belong to an ambiguity set comprising all distributions that are compatible with the decision maker's prior information. In this paper, we propose a unifying framework for modeling and solving distributionally robust optimization problems. We introduce standardized ambiguity sets that contain all distributions with prescribed conic representable confidence sets and with mean values residing on an affine manifold. These ambiguity sets are highly expressive and encompass many ambiguity sets from the recent literature as special cases. They also allow us to characterize distributional families in terms of several classical and or robust statistical indicators that have not yet been studied in the context of robust optimization. We determine conditions under which distributionally robust optimization problems based on our standardized ambiguity sets are computationally tractable. We also provide tractable conservative approximations for problems that violate these conditions. We consider stochastic programs where the distribution of the uncertain parameters is only observable through a finite training dataset. Using the Wasserstein metric, we construct a ball in the space of (multivariate and non-discrete) probability distributions centered at the uniform distribution on the training samples, and we seek decisions that perform best in view of the worst-case distribution within this Wasserstein ball. The state-of-the-art methods for solving the resulting distributionally robust optimization problems rely on global optimization techniques, which quickly become computationally excruciating. In this paper we demonstrate that, under mild assumptions, the distributionally robust optimization problems over Wasserstein balls can in fact be reformulated as finite convex programs—in many interesting cases even as tractable linear programs. Leveraging recent measure concentration results, we also show that their solutions enjoy powerful finite-sample performance guarantees. Our theoretical results are exemplified in mean-risk portfolio optimization as well as uncertainty quantification. As opposed to standard empirical risk minimization (ERM), distributionally robust optimization aims to minimize the worst-case risk over a larger ambiguity set containing the original empirical distribution of the training data. In this work, we describe a minimax framework for statistical learning with ambiguity sets given by balls in Wasserstein space. In particular, we prove generalization bounds that involve the covering number properties of the original ERM problem. As an illustrative example, we provide generalization guarantees for transport-based domain adaptation problems where the Wasserstein distance between the source and target domain distributions can be reliably estimated from unlabeled samples. This technical note studies Markov decision processes under parameter uncertainty. We adapt the distributionally robust optimization framework, assume that the uncertain parameters are random variables following an unknown distribution, and seek the strategy which maximizes the expected performance under the most adversarial distribution. In particular, we generalize a previous study [1] which concentrates on distribution sets with very special structure to a considerably more generic class of distribution sets, and show that the optimal strategy can be obtained efficiently under mild technical conditions. This significantly extends the applicability of distributionally robust MDPs by incorporating probabilistic information of uncertainty in a more flexible way. We develop efficient solution methods for a robust empirical risk minimization problem designed to give calibrated confidence intervals on performance and provide optimal tradeoffs between bias and variance. Our methods apply to distributionally robust optimization problems proposed by Ben-, which put more weight on observations inducing high loss via a worst-case approach over a non-parametric uncertainty set on the underlying data distribution. Our algorithm solves the resulting minimax problems with nearly the same computational cost of stochastic gradient descent through the use of several carefully designed data structures. For a sample of size n, the per-iteration cost of our method scales as O(log n), which allows us to give optimality certificates that distributionally robust optimization provides at little extra cost compared to empirical risk minimization and stochastic gradient methods. Motivated by data-driven decision making and sampling problems, we investigate probabilistic interpretations of robust optimization (RO). We establish a connection between RO and distributionally robust stochastic programming (DRSP), showing that the solution to any RO problem is also a solution to a DRSP problem. Specifically, we consider the case where multiple uncertain parameters belong to the same fixed dimensional space and find the set of distributions of the equivalent DRSP problem. The equivalence we derive enables us to construct RO formulations for sampled problems (as in stochastic programming and machine learning) that are statistically consistent, even when the original sampled problem is not. In the process, this provides a systematic approach for tuning the uncertainty set. The equivalence further provides a probabilistic explanation for the common shrinkage heuristic, where the uncertainty set used in an RO problem is a shrunken version of the original uncertainty set. In this paper we study distributionally robust optimization (DRO) problems where the ambiguity set of the probability distribution is defined by the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence. We consider DRO problems where the ambiguity is in the objective function, which takes a form of an expectation, and show that the resulted minimax DRO problems can be formulated as a one-layer convex minimization problem. We also consider DRO problems where the ambiguity is in the constraint. We show that ambiguous expectation-constrained programs may be reformulated as a one-layer convex optimization problem that takes the form of the Benstein approximation of Nemirovski and Shapiro (2006). We further consider distributionally robust probabilistic programs. We show that the optimal solution of a probability minimization problem is also optimal for the distributionally robust version of the same problem, and also show that the ambiguous chance-constrained programs (CCPs) may be reformulated as the original CCP with an adjusted confidence level. A number of examples and special cases are also discussed in the paper to show that the reformulated problems may take simple forms that can be solved easily. The main contribution of the paper is to show that the KL divergence constrained DRO problems are often of the same complexity as their original stochastic programming problems and, thus, KL divergence appears a good candidate in modeling distribution ambiguities in mathematical programming. We study statistical inference and distributionally robust solution methods for stochastic optimization problems, focusing on confidence intervals for optimal values and solutions that achieve exact coverage asymptotically. We develop a generalized empirical likelihood framework---based on distributional uncertainty sets constructed from nonparametric @math -divergence balls---for Hadamard differentiable functionals, and in particular, stochastic optimization problems. As consequences of this theory, we provide a principled method for choosing the size of distributional uncertainty regions to provide one- and two-sided confidence intervals that achieve exact coverage. We also give an asymptotic expansion for our distributionally robust formulation, showing how robustification regularizes problems by their variance. Finally, we show that optimizers of the distributionally robust formulations we study enjoy (essentially) the same consistency properties as those in classical sample average approximations. Our general approach applies to quickly mixing stationary sequences, including geometrically ergodic Harris recurrent Markov chains. In recent years scholars have built maps of science by connecting the academic fields that cite each other, are cited together, or that cite a similar literature. But since scholars cannot always publish in the fields they cite, or that cite them, these science maps are only rough proxies for the potential of a scholar, organization, or country, to enter a new academic field. Here we use a large dataset of scholarly publications disambiguated at the individual level to create a map of science-or research space-where links connect pairs of fields based on the probability that an individual has published in both of them. We find that the research space is a significantly more accurate predictor of the fields that individuals and organizations will enter in the future than citation based science maps. At the country level, however, the research space and citations based science maps are equally accurate. These findings show that data on career trajectories-the set of fields that individuals have previously published in-provide more accurate predictors of future research output for more focalized units-such as individuals or organizations-than citation based science maps. We consider Markov decision processes where the values of the parameters are uncertain. This uncertainty is described by a sequence of nested sets (that is, each set contains the previous one), each of which corresponds to a probabilistic guarantee for a different confidence level. Consequently, a set of admissible probability distributions of the unknown parameters is specified. This formulation models the case where the decision maker is aware of and wants to exploit some (yet imprecise) a priori information of the distribution of parameters, and it arises naturally in practice where methods for estimating the confidence region of parameters abound. We propose a decision criterion based on distributional robustness: the optimal strategy maximizes the expected total reward under the most adversarial admissible probability distributions. We show that finding the optimal distributionally robust strategy can be reduced to the standard robust MDP where parameters are known to belong to a single uncertainty set; hence, it can be computed in polynomial time under mild technical conditions. This article challenges recent research (Evans, 2008) reporting that the concentration of cited scientific literature increases with the online availability of articles and journals. Using Thomson Reuters' Web of Science, the present article analyses changes in the concentration of citations received (2- and 5-year citation windows) by papers published between 1900 and 2005. Three measures of concentration are used: the percentage of papers that received at least one citation (cited papers); the percentage of papers needed to account for 20 , 50 , and 80 of the citations; and the Herfindahl-Hirschman index (HHI). These measures are used for four broad disciplines: natural sciences and engineering, medical fields, social sciences, and the humanities. All these measures converge and show that, contrary to what was reported by Evans, the dispersion of citations is actually increasing. © 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. In this paper, we study data-driven chance constrained stochastic programs, or more specifically, stochastic programs with distributionally robust chance constraints (DCCs) in a data-driven setting to provide robust solutions for the classical chance constrained stochastic program facing ambiguous probability distributions of random parameters. We consider a family of density-based confidence sets based on a general @math ź-divergence measure, and formulate DCC from the perspective of robust feasibility by allowing the ambiguous distribution to run adversely within its confidence set. We derive an equivalent reformulation for DCC and show that it is equivalent to a classical chance constraint with a perturbed risk level. We also show how to evaluate the perturbed risk level by using a bisection line search algorithm for general @math ź-divergence measures. In several special cases, our results can be strengthened such that we can derive closed-form expressions for the perturbed risk levels. In addition, we show that the conservatism of DCC vanishes as the size of historical data goes to infinity. Furthermore, we analyze the relationship between the conservatism of DCC and the size of historical data, which can help indicate the value of data. Finally, we conduct extensive computational experiments to test the performance of the proposed DCC model and compare various @math ź-divergence measures based on a capacitated lot-sizing problem with a quality-of-service requirement. Scholars are increasingly citing electronic “web references” which are not preserved in libraries or full text archives. WebCite is a new standard for citing web references. To “webcite” a document involves archiving the cited Web page through www.webcitation.org and citing the WebCite permalink instead of (or in addition to) the unstable live Web page. This journal has amended its “instructions for authors” accordingly, asking authors to archive cited Web pages before submitting a manuscript. Almost 200 other journals are already using the system. We discuss the rationale for WebCite, its technology, and how scholars, editors, and publishers can benefit from the service. Citing scholars initiate an archiving process of all cited Web references, ideally before they submit a manuscript. Authors of online documents and websites which are expected to be cited by others can ensure that their work is permanently available by creating an archived copy using WebCite and providing the citation information including the WebCite link on their Web document(s). Editors should ask their authors to cache all cited Web addresses (Uniform Resource Locators, or URLs) “prospectively” before submitting their manuscripts to their journal. Editors and publishers should also instruct their copyeditors to cache cited Web material if the author has not done so already. Finally, WebCite can process publisher submitted “citing articles” (submitted for example as eXtensible Markup Language [XML] documents) to automatically archive all cited Web pages shortly before or on publication. Finally, WebCite can act as a focussed crawler, caching retrospectively references of already published articles. Copyright issues are addressed by honouring respective Internet standards (robot exclusion files, no-cache and no-archive tags). Long-term preservation is ensured by agreements with libraries and digital preservation organizations. The resulting WebCite Index may also have applications for research assessment exercises, being able to measure the impact of Web services and published Web documents through access and Web citation metrics. @PARASPLIT [J Med Internet Res 2005;7(5):e60] Neural networks are vulnerable to adversarial examples and researchers have proposed many heuristic attack and defense mechanisms. We take the principled view of distributionally robust optimization, which guarantees performance under adversarial input perturbations. By considering a Lagrangian penalty formulation of perturbation of the underlying data distribution in a Wasserstein ball, we provide a training procedure that augments model parameter updates with worst-case perturbations of training data. For smooth losses, our procedure provably achieves moderate levels of robustness with little computational or statistical cost relative to empirical risk minimization. Furthermore, our statistical guarantees allow us to efficiently certify robustness for the population loss. For imperceptible perturbations, our method matches or outperforms heuristic approaches. Neural networks are vulnerable to adversarial examples and researchers have proposed many heuristic attack and defense mechanisms. We address this problem through the principled lens of distributionally robust optimization, which guarantees performance under adversarial input perturbations. By considering a Lagrangian penalty formulation of perturbing the underlying data distribution in a Wasserstein ball, we provide a training procedure that augments model parameter updates with worst-case perturbations of training data. For smooth losses, our procedure provably achieves moderate levels of robustness with little computational or statistical cost relative to empirical risk minimization. Furthermore, our statistical guarantees allow us to efficiently certify robustness for the population loss. For imperceptible perturbations, our method matches or outperforms heuristic approaches. We study stochastic programs where the decision-maker cannot observe the distribution of the exogenous uncertainties but has access to a finite set of independent samples from this distribution. In this setting, the goal is to find a procedure that transforms the data to an estimate of the expected cost function under the unknown data-generating distribution, i.e., a predictor, and an optimizer of the estimated cost function that serves as a near-optimal candidate decision, i.e., a prescriptor. As functions of the data, predictors and prescriptors constitute statistical estimators. We propose a meta-optimization problem to find the least conservative predictors and prescriptors subject to constraints on their out-of-sample disappointment. The out-of-sample disappointment quantifies the probability that the actual expected cost of the candidate decision under the unknown true distribution exceeds its predicted cost. Leveraging tools from large deviations theory, we prove that this meta-optimization problem admits a unique solution: The best predictor-prescriptor pair is obtained by solving a distributionally robust optimization problem over all distributions within a given relative entropy distance from the empirical distribution of the data. A citing sentence is one that appears in a scientific article and cites previous work. Citing sentences have been studied and used in many applications. For example, they have been used in scientific paper summarization, automatic survey generation, paraphrase identification, and citation function classification. Citing sentences that cite multiple papers are common in scientific writing. This observation should be taken into consideration when using citing sentences in applications. For instance, when a citing sentence is used in a summary of a scientific paper, only the fragments of the sentence that are relevant to the summarized paper should be included in the summary. In this paper, we present and compare three different approaches for identifying the fragments of a citing sentence that are related to a given target reference. Our methods are: word classification, sequence labeling, and segment classification. Our experiments show that segment classification achieves the best results. Stochastic programming can effectively describe many decision-making problems in uncertain environments. Unfortunately, such programs are often computationally demanding to solve. In addition, their solution can be misleading when there is ambiguity in the choice of a distribution for the random parameters. In this paper, we propose a model that describes uncertainty in both the distribution form (discrete, Gaussian, exponential, etc.) and moments (mean and covariance matrix). We demonstrate that for a wide range of cost functions the associated distributionally robust (or min-max) stochastic program can be solved efficiently. Furthermore, by deriving a new confidence region for the mean and the covariance matrix of a random vector, we provide probabilistic arguments for using our model in problems that rely heavily on historical data. These arguments are confirmed in a practical example of portfolio selection, where our framework leads to better-performing policies on the “true” distribution underlying the daily returns of financial assets. We investigate the control of constrained stochastic linear systems when faced with limited information regarding the disturbance process, i.e., when only the first two moments of the disturbance distribution are known. We consider two types of distributionally robust constraints. In the first case, we require that the constraints hold with a given probability for all disturbance distributions sharing the known moments. These constraints are commonly referred to as distributionally robust chance constraints. In the second case, we impose conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) constraints to bound the expected constraint violation for all disturbance distributions consistent with the given moment information. Such constraints are referred to as distributionally robust CVaR constraints with second-order moment specifications. We propose a method for designing linear controllers for systems with such constraints that is both computationally tractable and practically meaningful for both finite and infinite horizon problems. We prove in the infinite horizon case that our design procedure produces the globally optimal linear output feedback controller for distributionally robust CVaR and chance constrained problems. The proposed methods are illustrated for a wind blade control design case study for which distributionally robust constraints constitute sensible design objectives. A new form of document coupling called co-citation is defined as the frequency with which two documents are cited together. The co-citation frequency of two scientific papers can be determined by comparing lists of citing documents in the Science Citation Index and counting identical entries. Networks of co-cited papers can be generated for specific scientific specialties, and an example is drawn from the literature of particle physics. Co-citation patterns are found to differ significantly from bibliographic coupling patterns, but to agree generally with patterns of direct citation. Clusters of co-cited papers provide a new way to study the specialty structure of science. They may provide a new approach to indexing and to the creation of SDI profiles.