We propose a new approach to value function approximation which combines linear temporal difference reinforcement learning with subspace identification. In practical applications, reinforcement learning (RL) is complicated by the fact that state is either high-dimensional or partially observable. Therefore, RL methods are designed to work with features of state rather than state itself, and the success or failure of learning is often determined by the suitability of the selected features. By comparison, subspace identification (SSID) methods are designed to select a feature set which preserves as much information as possible about state. In this paper we connect the two approaches, looking at the problem of reinforcement learning with a large set of features, each of which may only be marginally useful for value function approximation. We introduce a new algorithm for this situation, called Predictive State Temporal Difference (PSTD) learning. As in SSID for predictive state representations, PSTD finds a linear compression operator that projects a large set of features down to a small set that preserves the maximum amount of predictive information. As in RL, PSTD then uses a Bellman recursion to estimate a value function. We discuss the connection between PSTD and prior approaches in RL and SSID. We prove that PSTD is statistically consistent, perform several experiments that illustrate its properties, and demonstrate its potential on a difficult optimal stopping problem.
Just as showed for the two simpler methods, we show that our two improved methods (model-free and model-based) are equivalent. This result yields some appealing theoretical benefits: for example, PSTD features can be explicitly interpreted as a statistically consistent estimate of the true underlying system state. And, the feasibility of finding the true value function can be shown to depend on the of the dynamical system, or equivalently, the dimensionality of the predictive state representation--- on the cardinality of the POMDP state space. Therefore our representation is naturally compressed'' in the sense of @cite_15 , speeding up convergence.
@cite_15
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When designing optimal controllers for any system, it is often the case that the true state of the system is unknown to the controller. Imperfect state information must be taken into account in the controller’s design in order to preserve its optimality. The same is true when performing reachability calculations. To estimate the probability that the state of a stochastic system reaches, or stays within, some set of interest in a given time horizon, it is necessary to find a controller that drives the system to that set with maximum probability, given the controller’s knowledge of the true state of the system. To date, little work has been done on stochastic reachability calculations with partially observable states. The work that has been done relies on converting the reachability optimization problem to one with an additive cost function, for which theoretical results are well known. Our approach is to preserve the multiplicative cost structure when deriving a sufficient statistic that reduces the problem to one of perfect state information. Our transformation includes a change of measure that simplifies the distribution of the sufficient statistic conditioned on its previous value. We develop a dynamic programming recursion for the solution of the equivalent perfect information problem, proving that the recursion is valid, an optimal solution exists, and results in the same solution as to the original problem. We also show that our results are equivalent to those for the reformulated additive cost problem, and so such a reformulation is not required. Sparsity or parsimony of statistical models is crucial for their proper interpretations, as in sciences and social sciences. Model selection is a commonly used method to find such models, but usually involves a computationally heavy combinatorial search. Lasso (Tibshirani, 1996) is now being used as a computationally feasible alternative to model selection. Therefore it is important to study Lasso for model selection purposes. In this paper, we prove that a single condition, which we call the Irrepresentable Condition, is almost necessary and sufficient for Lasso to select the true model both in the classical fixed p setting and in the large p setting as the sample size n gets large. Based on these results, sufficient conditions that are verifiable in practice are given to relate to previous works and help applications of Lasso for feature selection and sparse representation. This Irrepresentable Condition, which depends mainly on the covariance of the predictor variables, states that Lasso selects the true model consistently if and (almost) only if the predictors that are not in the true model are "irrepresentable" (in a sense to be clarified) by predictors that are in the true model. Furthermore, simulations are carried out to provide insights and understanding of this result. One key challenge in reinforcement learning is the ability to generalize knowledge in control problems. While deep learning methods have been successfully combined with model-free reinforcement-learning algorithms, how to perform model-based reinforcement learning in the presence of approximation errors still remains an open problem. Using successor features, a feature representation that predicts a temporal constraint, this paper presents three contributions: First, it shows how learning successor features is equivalent to model-free learning. Then, it shows how successor features encode model reductions that compress the state space by creating state partitions of bisimilar states. Using this representation, an intelligent agent is guaranteed to accurately predict future reward outcomes, a key property of model-based reinforcement-learning algorithms. Lastly, it presents a loss objective and prediction error bounds showing that accurately predicting value functions and reward sequences is possible with an approximation of successor features. On finite control problems, we illustrate how minimizing this loss objective results in approximate bisimulations. The results presented in this paper provide a novel understanding of representations that can support model-free and model-based reinforcement learning. Predictive state representations (PSRs) model dynamical systems using appropriately chosen predictions about future observations as a representation of the current state. In contrast to the hidden states posited by HMMs or RNNs, PSR states are directly observable in the training data; this gives rise to a moment-matching spectral algorithm for learning PSRs that is computationally efficient and statistically consistent when the model complexity matches that of the true system generating the data. In practice, however, model mismatch is inevitable and while spectral learning remains appealingly fast and simple it may fail to find optimal models. To address this problem, we investigate the use of gradient methods for improving spectrally-learned PSRs. We show that only a small amount of additional gradient optimization can lead to significant performance gains, and moreover that initializing gradient methods with the spectral learning solution yields better models in significantly less time than starting from scratch. We propose a new approach to the problem of searching a space of policies for a Markov decision process (MDP) or a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP), given a model. Our approach is based on the following observation: Any (PO)MDP can be transformed into an "equivalent" POMDP in which all state transitions (given the current state and action) are deterministic. This reduces the general problem of policy search to one in which we need only consider POMDPs with deterministic transitions. We give a natural way of estimating the value of all policies in these transformed POMDPs. Policy search is then simply performed by searching for a policy with high estimated value. We also establish conditions under which our value estimates will be good, recovering theoretical results similar to those of Kearns, Mansour and Ng (1999), but with "sample complexity" bounds that have only a polynomial rather than exponential dependence on the horizon time. Our method applies to arbitrary POMDPs, including ones with infinite state and action spaces. We also present empirical results for our approach on a small discrete problem, and on a complex continuous state continuous action problem involving learning to ride a bicycle. Knowledge Tracing (BKT) is a common way of determining student knowledge of skills in adaptive educational systems and cognitive tutors. The basic BKT is a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) that models student knowledge based on five parameters: prior, learn rate, forget, guess, and slip. Expectation Maximization (EM) is often used to learn these parameters from training data. However, EM is a time-consuming process, and is prone to converging to erroneous, implausible local optima depending on the initial values of the BKT parameters. In this paper we address these two problems by using spectral learning to learn a Predictive State Representation (PSR) that represents the BKT HMM. We then use a heuristic to extract the BKT parameters from the learned PSR using basic matrix operations. The spectral learning method is based on an approximate factorization of the estimated covariance of windows from students' sequences of correct and incorrect responses; it is fast, local-optimum-free, and statistically consistent. In the past few years, spectral techniques have been used on real-world problems involving latent variables in dynamical systems, computer vision, and natural language processing. Our results suggest that the parameters learned by the spectral algorithm can replace the parameters learned by EM; the results of our study show that the spectral algorithm can improve knowledge tracing parameter- fitting time significantly while maintaining the same prediction accuracy, or help to improve accuracy while still keeping parameter-fitting time equivalent to EM. We introduce a new count-based optimistic exploration algorithm for Reinforcement Learning (RL) that is feasible in environments with high-dimensional state-action spaces. The success of RL algorithms in these domains depends crucially on generalisation from limited training experience. Function approximation techniques enable RL agents to generalise in order to estimate the value of unvisited states, but at present few methods enable generalisation regarding uncertainty. This has prevented the combination of scalable RL algorithms with efficient exploration strategies that drive the agent to reduce its uncertainty. We present a new method for computing a generalised state visit-count, which allows the agent to estimate the uncertainty associated with any state. Our -pseudocount achieves generalisation by exploiting same feature representation of the state space that is used for value function approximation. States that have less frequently observed features are deemed more uncertain. The -Exploration-Bonus algorithm rewards the agent for exploring in feature space rather than in the untransformed state space. The method is simpler and less computationally expensive than some previous proposals, and achieves near state-of-the-art results on high-dimensional RL benchmarks. A Bayesian model of learning to learn by sampling from multiple tasks is presented. The multiple tasks are themselves generated by sampling from a distribution over an environment of related tasks. Such an environment is shown to be naturally modelled within a Bayesian context by the concept of an objective prior distribution. It is argued that for many common machine learning problems, although in general we do not know the true (objective) prior for the problem, we do have some idea of a set of possible priors to which the true prior belongs. It is shown that under these circumstances a learner can use Bayesian inference to learn the true prior by learning sufficiently many tasks from the environment. In addition, bounds are given on the amount of information required to learn a task when it is simultaneously learnt with several other tasks. The bounds show that if the learner has little knowledge of the true prior, but the dimensionality of the true prior is small, then sampling multiple tasks is highly advantageous. The theory is applied to the problem of learning a common feature set or equivalently a low-dimensional-representation (LDR) for an environment of related tasks. We introduce a principled method for multi-robot coordination based on a general model termed a MacDec-POMDP of multi-robot cooperative planning in the presence of stochasticity, uncertain sensing, and communication limitations. A new MacDec-POMDP planning algorithm is presented that searches over policies represented as finite-state controllers, rather than the previous policy tree representation. Finite-state controllers can be much more concise than trees, are much easier to interpret, and can operate over an infinite horizon. The resulting policy search algorithm requires a substantially simpler simulator that models only the outcomes of executing a given set of motor controllers, not the details of the executions themselves and can solve significantly larger problems than existing MacDec-POMDP planners. We demonstrate significant performance improvements over previous methods and show that our method can be used for actual multi-robot systems through experiments on a cooperative multi-robot bartending domain. Learning to act optimally in a complex, dynamic and noisy environment is a hard problem. Various threads of research from reinforcement learning, animal conditioning, operations research, machine learning, statistics and optimal control are beginning to come together to offer solutions to this problem. I present a thesis in which novel algorithms are presented for learning the dynamics, learning the value function, and selecting good actions for Markov decision processes. The problems considered have high-dimensional factored state and action spaces, and are either fully or partially observable. The approach I take is to recognize similarities between the problems being solved in the reinforcement learning and graphical models literature, and to use and combine techniques from the two fields in novel ways. In particular I present two new algorithms. First, the DBN algorithm learns a compact representation of the core process of a partially observable MDP. Because inference in the DBN is intractable, I use approximate inference to maintain the belief state. A belief state action-value function is learned using reinforcement learning. I show that this DBN algorithm can solve POMDPs with very large state spaces and useful hidden state. Second, the PoE algorithm learns an approximation to value functions over large factored state-action spaces. The algorithm approximates values as (negative) free energies in a product of experts model. The model parameters can be learned efficiently because inference is tractable in a product of experts. I show that good actions can be found even in large factored action spaces by the use of brief Gibbs sampling. These two new algorithms take techniques from the machine learning community and apply them in new ways to reinforcement learning problems. Simulation results show that these new methods can be used to solve very large problems. The DBN method is used to solve a POMDP with a hidden state space and an observation space of size greater than 2180. The DBN model of the core process has 232 states represented as 32 binary variables. The PoE method is used to find actions in action spaces of size 240 . There are many sensing challenges for which one must balance the effectiveness of a given measurement with the associated sensing cost. For example, when performing a diagnosis a doctor must balance the cost and benefit of a given test (measurement), and the decision to stop sensing (stop performing tests) must account for the risk to the patient and doctor (malpractice) for a given diagnosis based on observed data. This motivates a cost-sensitive classification problem in which the features (sensing results) are not given a priori; the algorithm determines which features to acquire next, as well as when to stop sensing and make a classification decision based on previous observations (accounting for the costs of various types of errors, as well as the rewards of being correct). We formally define the cost-sensitive classification problem and solve it via a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP). While the POMDP constitutes an intuitively appealing formulation, the intrinsic properties of classification tasks resist application of it to this problem. We circumvent the difficulties of the POMDP via a myopic approach, with an adaptive stopping criterion linked to the standard POMDP. The myopic algorithm is computationally feasible, easily handles continuous features, and seamlessly avoids repeated actions. Experiments with several benchmark data sets show that the proposed method yields state-of-the-art performance, and importantly our method uses only a small fraction of the features that are generally used in competitive approaches. Recently, a number of researchers have proposed spectral algorithms for learning models of dynamical systems—for example, Hidden Markov Models (HMMs), Partially Observable Markov Decision Processes (POMDPs), and Transformed Predictive State Representations (TPSRs). These algorithms are attractive since they are statistically consistent and not subject to local optima. However, they are batch methods: they need to store their entire training data set in memory at once and operate on it as a large matrix, and so they cannot scale to extremely large data sets (either many examples or many features per example). In turn, this restriction limits their ability to learn accurate models of complex systems. To overcome these limitations, we propose a new online spectral algorithm, which uses tricks such as incremental Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) and random projections to scale to much larger data sets and more complex systems than previous methods. We demonstrate the new method on an inertial measurement prediction task and a high-bandwidth video mapping task and we illustrate desirable behaviors such as "closing the loop," where the latent state representation changes suddenly as the learner recognizes that it has returned to a previously known place. Visual Question Answering (VQA) is the task of taking as input an image and a free-form natural language question about the image, and producing an accurate answer. In this work we view VQA as a "feature extraction" module to extract image and caption representations. We employ these representations for the task of image-caption ranking. Each feature dimension captures (imagines) whether a fact (question-answer pair) could plausibly be true for the image and caption. This allows the model to interpret images and captions from a wide variety of perspectives. We propose score-level and representation-level fusion models to incorporate VQA knowledge in an existing state-of-the-art VQA-agnostic image-caption ranking model. We find that incorporating and reasoning about consistency between images and captions significantly improves performance. Concretely, our model improves state-of-the-art on caption retrieval by 7.1 and on image retrieval by 4.4 on the MSCOCO dataset. We introduce a novel generative model for interpretable subgroup analysis for causal inference applications, Causal Rule Sets (CRS). A CRS model uses a small set of short rules to capture a subgroup where the average treatment effect is elevated compared to the entire population. We present a Bayesian framework for learning a causal rule set. The Bayesian framework consists of a prior that favors simpler models and a Bayesian logistic regression that characterizes the relation between outcomes, attributes and subgroup membership. We find maximum a posteriori models using discrete Monte Carlo steps in the joint solution space of rules sets and parameters. We provide theoretically grounded heuristics and bounding strategies to improve search efficiency. Experiments show that the search algorithm can efficiently recover a true underlying subgroup and CRS shows consistently competitive performance compared to other state-of-the-art baseline methods. High dimensionality of POMDP's belief state space is one major cause that makes the underlying optimal policy computation intractable. Belief compression refers to the methodology that projects the belief state space to a low-dimensional one to alleviate the problem. In this paper, we propose a novel orthogonal non-negative matrix factorization (O-NMF) for the projection. The proposed O-NMF not only factors the belief state space by minimizing the reconstruction error, but also allows the compressed POMDP formulation to be efficiently computed (due to its orthogonality) in a value-directed manner so that the value function will take same values for corresponding belief states in the original and compressed state spaces. We have tested the proposed approach using a number of benchmark problems and the empirical results confirms its effectiveness in achieving substantial computational cost saving in policy computation. We study the flow of information and the evolution of internal representations during deep neural network (DNN) training, aiming to demystify the compression aspect of the information bottleneck theory. The theory suggests that DNN training comprises a rapid fitting phase followed by a slower compression phase, in which the mutual information @math between the input @math and internal representations @math decreases. Several papers observe compression of estimated mutual information on different DNN models, but the true @math over these networks is provably either constant (discrete @math ) or infinite (continuous @math ). This work explains the discrepancy between theory and experiments, and clarifies what was actually measured by these past works. To this end, we introduce an auxiliary (noisy) DNN framework for which @math is a meaningful quantity that depends on the network's parameters. This noisy framework is shown to be a good proxy for the original (deterministic) DNN both in terms of performance and the learned representations. We then develop a rigorous estimator for @math in noisy DNNs and observe compression in various models. By relating @math in the noisy DNN to an information-theoretic communication problem, we show that compression is driven by the progressive clustering of hidden representations of inputs from the same class. Several methods to directly monitor clustering of hidden representations, both in noisy and deterministic DNNs, are used to show that meaningful clusters form in the @math space. Finally, we return to the estimator of @math employed in past works, and demonstrate that while it fails to capture the true (vacuous) mutual information, it does serve as a measure for clustering. This clarifies the past observations of compression and isolates the geometric clustering of hidden representations as the true phenomenon of interest. Kernel methods can embed finite-dimensional data into infinite-dimensional feature spaces. In spite of the large underlying feature dimensionality, kernel methods can achieve good generalization ability. This observation is often wrongly interpreted, and it has been used to argue that kernel learning can magically avoid the "curse-of-dimensionality" phenomenon encountered in statistical estimation problems. This letter shows that although using kernel representation, one can embed data into an infinite-dimensional feature space; the effective dimensionality of this embedding, which determines the learning complexity of the underlying kernel machine, is usually small. In particular, we introduce an algebraic definition of a scale-sensitive effective dimension associated with a kernel representation. Based on this quantity, we derive upper bounds on the generalization performance of some kernel regression methods. Moreover, we show that the resulting convergent rates are optimal under various circumstances. Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) provide a principled, general framework for robot motion planning in uncertain and dynamic environments. They have been applied to various robotic tasks. However, solving POMDPs exactly is computationally intractable. A major challenge is to scale up POMDP algorithms for complex robotic tasks. Robotic systems often have mixed observability : even when a robotâs state is not fully observable, some components of the state may still be so. We use a factored model to represent separately the fully and partially observable components of a robotâs state and derive a compact lower-dimensional representation of its belief space. This factored representation can be combined with any point-based algorithm to compute approximate POMDP solutions. Experimental results show that on standard test problems, our approach improves the performance of a leading point-based POMDP algorithm by many times. We present a new approach to motion planning under sensing and motion uncertainty by computing a locally optimal solution to a continuous partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP). Our approach represents beliefs (the distributions of the robot's state estimate) by Gaussian distributions and is applicable to robot systems with non-linear dynamics and observation models. The method follows the general POMDP solution framework in which we approximate the belief dynamics using an extended Kalman filter and represent the value function by a quadratic function that is valid in the vicinity of a nominal trajectory through belief space. Using a belief space variant of iterative LQG (iLQG), our approach iterates with second-order convergence towards a linear control policy over the belief space that is locally optimal with respect to a user-defined cost function. Unlike previous work, our approach does not assume maximum-likelihood observations, does not assume fixed estimator or control gains, takes into account obstacles in the environment, and does not require discretization of the state and action spaces. The running time of the algorithm is polynomial (O[n6]) in the dimension n of the state space. We demonstrate the potential of our approach in simulation for holonomic and non-holonomic robots maneuvering through environments with obstacles with noisy and partial sensing and with non-linear dynamics and observation models. Automated driving requires decision making in dynamic and uncertain environments. The uncertainty from the prediction originates from the noisy sensor data and from the fact that the intention of human drivers cannot be directly measured. This problem is formulated as a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) with the intended route of the other vehicles as hidden variables. The solution of the POMDP is a policy determining the optimal acceleration of the ego vehicle along a preplanned path. Therefore, the policy is optimized for the most likely future scenarios resulting from an interactive, probabilistic motion model for the other vehicles. Considering possible future measurements of the surrounding cars allows the autonomous car to incorporate the estimated change in future prediction accuracy in the optimal policy. A compact representation results in a low-dimensional state-space. Thus, the problem can be solved online for varying road layouts and number of vehicles. This is done with a point-based solver in an anytime fashion on a continuous state-space. Our evaluation is threefold: At first, the convergence of the algorithm is evaluated and it is shown how the convergence can be improved with an additional search heuristic. Second, we show various planning scenarios to demonstrate how the introduction of different considered uncertainties results in more conservative planning. At the end, we show online simulations for the crossing of complex (unsignalized) intersections. We can demonstrate that our approach performs nearly as good as with full prior information about the intentions of the other vehicles and clearly outperforms reactive approaches.