We present a data-driven framework for incorporating side information in dynamic optimization under uncertainty. Specifically, our approach uses predictive machine learning methods (such as k-nearest neighbors, kernel regression, and random forests) to weight the relative importance of various data-driven uncertainty sets in a robust optimization formulation. Through a novel measure concentration result for local machine learning methods, we prove that the proposed framework is asymptotically optimal for stochastic dynamic optimization with covariates. We also describe a general-purpose approximation for the proposed framework, based on overlapping linear decision rules, which is computationally tractable and produces high-quality solutions for dynamic problems with many stages. Across a variety of examples in shipment planning, inventory management, and finance, our method achieves improvements of up to 15 over alternatives and requires less than one minute of computation time on problems with twelve stages.
As discussed previously, the methodology in this paper also follows recent work on incorporating covariates in optimization under uncertainty using local predictive methods (such as @math -nearest neighbor regression, kernel regression, and random forests). In particular, the asymptotic optimality justification of @cite_11 in single-stage settings relies on the strong universal consistency for local predictive models (, @cite_6 ). Our proof of asymptotic optimality instead relies on convergence guarantees rooted in distributionally robust optimization. The reason we use a different approach is that the arguments for the convergence for local predictive models from @cite_11 require finite dimensional decision variables. In contrast, the convergence guarantees in this paper apply for dynamic optimization over general spaces of policies.
@cite_6 @cite_11
2211648829 1507350577
Prediction markets are economic mechanisms for aggregating information about future events through sequential interactions with traders. The pricing mechanisms in these markets are known to be related to optimization algorithms in machine learning and through these connections we have some understanding of how equilibrium market prices relate to the beliefs of the traders in a market. However, little is known about rates and guarantees for the convergence of these sequential mechanisms, and two recent papers cite this as an important open question. In this paper we show how some previously studied prediction market trading models can be understood as a natural generalization of randomized coordinate descent which we call randomized subspace descent (RSD). We establish convergence rates for RSD and leverage them to prove rates for the two prediction market models above, answering the open questions. Our results extend beyond standard centralized markets to arbitrary trade networks. Discriminative latent-variable models are typically learned using EM or gradient-based optimization, which suffer from local optima. In this paper, we develop a new computationally efficient and provably consistent estimator for a mixture of linear regressions, a simple instance of a discriminative latent-variable model. Our approach relies on a low-rank linear regression to recover a symmetric tensor, which can be factorized into the parameters using a tensor power method. We prove rates of convergence for our estimator and provide an empirical evaluation illustrating its strengths relative to local optimization (EM). Guided policy search algorithms can be used to optimize complex nonlinear policies, such as deep neural networks, without directly computing policy gradients in the high-dimensional parameter space. Instead, these methods use supervised learning to train the policy to mimic a “teacher” algorithm, such as a trajectory optimizer or a trajectory-centric reinforcement learning method. Guided policy search methods provide asymptotic local convergence guarantees by construction, but it is not clear how much the policy improves within a small, finite number of iterations. We show that guided policy search algorithms can be interpreted as an approximate variant of mirror descent, where the projection onto the constraint manifold is not exact. We derive a new guided policy search algorithm that is simpler and provides appealing improvement and convergence guarantees in simplified convex and linear settings, and show that in the more general nonlinear setting, the error in the projection step can be bounded. We provide empirical results on several simulated robotic manipulation tasks that show that our method is stable and achieves similar or better performance when compared to prior guided policy search methods, with a simpler formulation and fewer hyperparameters. Distributed averaging describes a class of network algorithms for the decentralized computation of aggregate statistics. Initially, each node has a scalar data value, and the goal is to compute the average of these values at every node (the so-called average consensus problem). Nodes iteratively exchange information with their neighbors and perform local updates until the value at every node converges to the initial network average. Much previous work has focused on algorithms where each node maintains and updates a single value; every time an update is performed, the previous value is forgotten. Convergence to the average consensus is achieved asymptotically. The convergence rate is fundamentally limited by network connectivity, and it can be prohibitively slow on topologies such as grids and random geometric graphs, even if the update rules are optimized. In this paper, we provide the first theoretical demonstration that adding a local prediction component to the update rule can significantly improve the convergence rate of distributed averaging algorithms. We focus on the case where the local predictor is a linear combination of the node's current and previous values (i.e., two memory taps), and our update rule computes a combination of the predictor and the usual weighted linear combination of values received from neighboring nodes. We derive the optimal mixing parameter for combining the predictor with the neighbors' values, and conduct a theoretical analysis of the improvement in convergence rate that can be achieved using this acceleration methodology. For a chain topology on N nodes, this leads to a factor of N improvement over standard consensus, and for a two-dimensional grid, our approach achieves a factor of ?N improvement. In decentralized consensus optimization, a connected network of agents collaboratively minimize the sum of their local objective functions over a common decision variable, where their information exchange is restricted between the neighbors. To this end, one can first obtain a problem reformulation and then apply the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM). The method applies iterative computation at the individual agents and information exchange between the neighbors. This approach has been observed to converge quickly and deemed powerful. This paper establishes its linear convergence rate for the decentralized consensus optimization problem with strongly convex local objective functions. The theoretical convergence rate is explicitly given in terms of the network topology, the properties of local objective functions, and the algorithm parameter. This result is not only a performance guarantee but also a guideline toward accelerating the ADMM convergence. Elementary approaches to classic strong laws of large numbers use a monotonicity argument or a Tauberian argument of summability theory. Together with results on variance of sums of dependent random variables they allow to establish various strong laws of large numbers in case of dependence, especially under mixing conditions. Strong consistency of nonparametric regression estimates of local averaging type (kernel and nearest neighbor estimates), pointwise as well as in L 2, can be considered as a generalization of strong laws of large numbers. Both approaches can be used to establish strong universal consistency in the case of independence and, mostly by sharpened integrability assumptions, consistency under ρ-mixing or α-mixing. In a similar way Rosenblatt-Parzen kernel density estimates are treated. This paper considers a fundamental class of convex matrix optimization problems with low-rank solutions. We show it is possible to solve these problem using far less memory than the natural size of the decision variable when the problem data has a concise representation. Our proposed method, SketchyCGM, is the first algorithm to offer provable convergence to an optimal point with an optimal memory footprint. SketchyCGM modifies a standard convex optimization method - the conditional gradient method - to work on a sketched version of the decision variable, and can recover the solution from this sketch. In contrast to recent work on non-convex methods for this problem class, SketchyCGM is a convex method; and our convergence guarantees do not rely on statistical assumptions. In this paper, we study the mixed linear regression (MLR) problem, where the goal is to recover multiple underlying linear models from their unlabeled linear measurements. We propose a non-convex objective function which we show is locally strongly convex in the neighborhood of the ground truth. We use a tensor method for initialization so that the initial models are in the local strong convexity region. We then employ general convex optimization algorithms to minimize the objective function. To the best of our knowledge, our approach provides first exact recovery guarantees for the MLR problem with @math components. Moreover, our method has near-optimal computational complexity @math as well as near-optimal sample complexity @math for constant @math . Furthermore, we show that our non-convex formulation can be extended to solving the subspace clustering problem as well. In particular, when initialized within a small constant distance to the true subspaces, our method converges to the global optima (and recovers true subspaces) in time linear in the number of points. Furthermore, our empirical results indicate that even with random initialization, our approach converges to the global optima in linear time, providing speed-up of up to two orders of magnitude. Automated driving requires decision making in dynamic and uncertain environments. The uncertainty from the prediction originates from the noisy sensor data and from the fact that the intention of human drivers cannot be directly measured. This problem is formulated as a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) with the intended route of the other vehicles as hidden variables. The solution of the POMDP is a policy determining the optimal acceleration of the ego vehicle along a preplanned path. Therefore, the policy is optimized for the most likely future scenarios resulting from an interactive, probabilistic motion model for the other vehicles. Considering possible future measurements of the surrounding cars allows the autonomous car to incorporate the estimated change in future prediction accuracy in the optimal policy. A compact representation results in a low-dimensional state-space. Thus, the problem can be solved online for varying road layouts and number of vehicles. This is done with a point-based solver in an anytime fashion on a continuous state-space. Our evaluation is threefold: At first, the convergence of the algorithm is evaluated and it is shown how the convergence can be improved with an additional search heuristic. Second, we show various planning scenarios to demonstrate how the introduction of different considered uncertainties results in more conservative planning. At the end, we show online simulations for the crossing of complex (unsignalized) intersections. We can demonstrate that our approach performs nearly as good as with full prior information about the intentions of the other vehicles and clearly outperforms reactive approaches. Many scientific and engineering challenges -- ranging from personalized medicine to customized marketing recommendations -- require an understanding of treatment effect heterogeneity. In this paper, we develop a non-parametric causal forest for estimating heterogeneous treatment effects that extends Breiman's widely used random forest algorithm. In the potential outcomes framework with unconfoundedness, we show that causal forests are pointwise consistent for the true treatment effect, and have an asymptotically Gaussian and centered sampling distribution. We also discuss a practical method for constructing asymptotic confidence intervals for the true treatment effect that are centered at the causal forest estimates. Our theoretical results rely on a generic Gaussian theory for a large family of random forest algorithms. To our knowledge, this is the first set of results that allows any type of random forest, including classification and regression forests, to be used for provably valid statistical inference. In experiments, we find causal forests to be substantially more powerful than classical methods based on nearest-neighbor matching, especially in the presence of irrelevant covariates. This paper studies local algorithms for autonomous robot systems, namely, algorithms that use only information of the positions of a bounded number of their nearest neighbors. The paper focuses on the spreading problem. It defines measures for the quality of spreading, presents a local algorithm for the one-dimensional spreading problem, proves its convergence to the equally spaced configuration and discusses its convergence rate in the synchronous and semi-synchronous settings. It then presents a local algorithm achieving the exact equally spaced configuration in finite time in the synchronous setting, and proves it is time optimal for local algorithms. Finally, the paper also proposes a possible algorithm for the two-dimensional case and presents partial simulation results of its effectiveness. We study a decomposition-based scalable approach to performing kernel ridge regression. The method is simple to describe: it randomly partitions a dataset of size N into m subsets of equal size, computes an independent kernel ridge regression estimator for each subset, then averages the local solutions into a global predictor. This partitioning leads to a substantial reduction in computation time versus the standard approach of performing kernel ridge regression on all N samples. Our main theorem establishes that despite the computational speed-up, statistical optimality is retained: if m is not too large, the partition-based estimate achieves optimal rates of convergence for the full sample size N. As concrete examples, our theory guarantees that m may grow polynomially in N for Sobolev spaces, and nearly linearly for finite-rank kernels and Gaussian kernels. We conclude with simulations complementing our theoretical results and exhibiting the computational and statistical benefits of our approach. We apply the objective method of Aldous to the problem of finding the minimum-cost edge cover of the complete graph with random independent and identically distributed edge costs. The limit, as the number of vertices goes to infinity, of the expected minimum cost for this problem is known via a combinatorial approach of Hessler and Wastlund. We provide a proof of this result using the machinery of the objective method and local weak convergence, which was used to prove the (2) limit of the random assignment problem. A proof via the objective method is useful because it provides us with more information on the nature of the edge's incident on a typical root in the minimum-cost edge cover. We further show that a belief propagation algorithm converges asymptotically to the optimal solution. This can be applied in a computational linguistics problem of semantic projection. The belief propagation algorithm yields a near optimal solution with lesser complexity than the known best algorithms designed for optimality in worst-case settings. We consider stochastic programs where the distribution of the uncertain parameters is only observable through a finite training dataset. Using the Wasserstein metric, we construct a ball in the space of (multivariate and non-discrete) probability distributions centered at the uniform distribution on the training samples, and we seek decisions that perform best in view of the worst-case distribution within this Wasserstein ball. The state-of-the-art methods for solving the resulting distributionally robust optimization problems rely on global optimization techniques, which quickly become computationally excruciating. In this paper we demonstrate that, under mild assumptions, the distributionally robust optimization problems over Wasserstein balls can in fact be reformulated as finite convex programs—in many interesting cases even as tractable linear programs. Leveraging recent measure concentration results, we also show that their solutions enjoy powerful finite-sample performance guarantees. Our theoretical results are exemplified in mean-risk portfolio optimization as well as uncertainty quantification. We study statistical inference and distributionally robust solution methods for stochastic optimization problems, focusing on confidence intervals for optimal values and solutions that achieve exact coverage asymptotically. We develop a generalized empirical likelihood framework---based on distributional uncertainty sets constructed from nonparametric @math -divergence balls---for Hadamard differentiable functionals, and in particular, stochastic optimization problems. As consequences of this theory, we provide a principled method for choosing the size of distributional uncertainty regions to provide one- and two-sided confidence intervals that achieve exact coverage. We also give an asymptotic expansion for our distributionally robust formulation, showing how robustification regularizes problems by their variance. Finally, we show that optimizers of the distributionally robust formulations we study enjoy (essentially) the same consistency properties as those in classical sample average approximations. Our general approach applies to quickly mixing stationary sequences, including geometrically ergodic Harris recurrent Markov chains. We consider statistical inference for the explained variance @math under the high-dimensional linear model @math in the semi-supervised setting, where @math is the regression vector and @math is the design covariance matrix. A calibrated estimator, which efficiently integrates both labelled and unlabelled data, is proposed. It is shown that the estimator achieves the minimax optimal rate of convergence in the general semi-supervised framework. The optimality result characterizes how the unlabelled data affects the minimax optimal rate. Moreover, the limiting distribution for the proposed estimator is established and data-driven confidence intervals for the explained variance are constructed. We further develop a randomized calibration technique for statistical inference in the presence of weak signals and apply the obtained inference results to a range of important statistical problems, including signal detection and global testing, prediction accuracy evaluation, and confidence ball construction. The numerical performance of the proposed methodology is demonstrated in simulation studies and an analysis of estimating heritability for a yeast segregant data set with multiple traits. Abstract A class of predictive densities is derived by weighting the observed samples in maximizing the log-likelihood function. This approach is effective in cases such as sample surveys or design of experiments, where the observed covariate follows a different distribution than that in the whole population. Under misspecification of the parametric model, the optimal choice of the weight function is asymptotically shown to be the ratio of the density function of the covariate in the population to that in the observations. This is the pseudo-maximum likelihood estimation of sample surveys. The optimality is defined by the expected Kullback–Leibler loss, and the optimal weight is obtained by considering the importance sampling identity. Under correct specification of the model, however, the ordinary maximum likelihood estimate (i.e. the uniform weight) is shown to be optimal asymptotically. For moderate sample size, the situation is in between the two extreme cases, and the weight function is selected by minimizing a variant of the information criterion derived as an estimate of the expected loss. The method is also applied to a weighted version of the Bayesian predictive density. Numerical examples as well as Monte-Carlo simulations are shown for polynomial regression. A connection with the robust parametric estimation is discussed. Probabilistic latent-variable models are a fundamental tool in statistics and machine learning. Despite their widespread use, identifying the parameters of basic latent variable models continues to be an extremely challenging problem. Traditional maximum likelihood-based learning algorithms find valid parameters, but suffer from high computational cost, slow convergence, and local optima. In contrast, recently developed spectral algorithms are computationally efficient and provide strong statistical guarantees, but are not guaranteed to find valid parameters. In this work, we introduce a two-stage learning algorithm for latent variable models. We first use a spectral method of moments algorithm to find a solution that is close to the optimal solution but not necessarily in the valid set of model parameters. We then incrementally refine the solution via an exterior point method until a local optima that is arbitrarily near the valid set of parameters is found. We perform several experiments on synthetic and real-world data and show that our approach is more accurate than previous work, especially when training data is limited. Latent variable models are a fundamental modeling tool in machine learning applications, but they present significant computational and analytical challenges. The popular EM algorithm and its variants, is a much used algorithmic tool; yet our rigorous understanding of its performance is highly incomplete. Recently, work in (2014) has demonstrated that for an important class of problems, EM exhibits linear local convergence. In the high-dimensional setting, however, the M-step may not be well defined. We address precisely this setting through a unified treatment using regularization. While regularization for high-dimensional problems is by now well understood, the iterative EM algorithm requires a careful balancing of making progress towards the solution while identifying the right structure (e.g., sparsity or low-rank). In particular, regularizing the M-step using the state-of-the-art high-dimensional prescriptions (e.g., Wainwright (2014)) is not guaranteed to provide this balance. Our algorithm and analysis are linked in a way that reveals the balance between optimization and statistical errors. We specialize our general framework to sparse gaussian mixture models, high-dimensional mixed regression, and regression with missing variables, obtaining statistical guarantees for each of these examples. Controlling the robot with a permanently-updated optimal trajectory, also known as model predictive control, is the Holy Grail of whole-body motion generation. Before obtaining it, several challenges should be faced: computation cost, non-linear local minima, algorithm stability, etc. In this paper, we address the problem of applying the updated optimal control in real-time on the physical robot. In particular, we focus on the problems raised by the delays due to computation and by the differences between the real robot and the simulated model. Based on the optimal-control solver MuJoCo, we implemented a complete model-predictive controller and we applied it in real-time on the physical HRP-2 robot. It is the first time that such a whole-body model predictive controller is applied in real-time on a complex dynamic robot. Aside from the technical contributions cited above, the main contribution of this paper is to report the experimental results of this premiere implementation.