Existing studies of how information diffuses across social networks have thus far concentrated on analysing and recovering the spread of deterministic innovations such as URLs, hashtags, and group membership. However investigating how mentions of real-world entities appear and spread has yet to be explored, largely due to the computationally intractable nature of performing large-scale entity extraction. In this paper we present, to the best of our knowledge, one of the first pieces of work to closely examine the diffusion of named entities on social media, using Reddit as our case study platform. We first investigate how named entities can be accurately recognised and extracted from discussion posts. We then use these extracted entities to study the patterns of entity cascades and how the probability of a user adopting an entity (i.e. mentioning it) is associated with exposures to the entity. We put these pieces together by presenting a parallelised diffusion model that can forecast the probability of entity adoption, finding that the influence of adoption between users can be characterised by their prior interactions -- as opposed to whether the users propagated entity-adoptions beforehand. Our findings have important implications for researchers studying influence and language, and for community analysts who wish to understand entity-level influence dynamics.
@cite_27 predicted adoption probabilities in social networks by controlling for potential confounding, unobservable variables -- proposing a modification of expectation-maximisation to induce a Naive bayes predictive model. The authors found that social influence alone is insufficient to recover the diffusion process, and thus external factors -- that are latent -- must be countered for within any predictive model -- this was in the context of predicting the adoption of social ties. The adoption of information within a social network and its propagation was studied by @cite_3 by considering the role of temporal dynamics. The authors found that the probability of diffusion between users ( on Chinese microblogging platform Sina Weibo) reduces as a function of time from the last interaction between the users, thereby suggesting that have a strong effect in diffusion. We build time into our adaptation of 's @cite_39 general threshold diffusion model -- by comparing static and discrete time versions of adoption probabilities.
@cite_27 @cite_3 @cite_39
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In a social network, adoption probability refers to the probability that a social entity will adopt a product, service, or opinion in the foreseeable future. Such probabilities are central to fundamental issues in social network analysis, including the influence maximization problem. In practice, adoption probabilities have significant implications for applications ranging from social network-based target marketing to political campaigns, yet predicting adoption probabilities has not received sufficient research attention. Building on relevant social network theories, we identify and operationalize key factors that affect adoption decisions: social influence, structural equivalence, entity similarity, and confounding factors. We then develop the locally weighted expectation-maximization method for Naive Bayesian learning to predict adoption probabilities on the basis of these factors. The principal challenge addressed in this study is how to predict adoption probabilities in the presence of confounding factors that are generally unobserved. Using data from two large-scale social networks, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. The empirical results also suggest that cascade methods primarily using social influence to predict adoption probabilities offer limited predictive power and that confounding factors are critical to adoption probability predictions. Social networks play a fundamental role in the diffusion of information. However, there are two different ways of how information reaches a person in a network. Information reaches us through connections in our social networks, as well as through the influence external out-of-network sources, like the mainstream media. While most present models of information adoption in networks assume information only passes from a node to node via the edges of the underlying network, the recent availability of massive online social media data allows us to study this process in more detail. We present a model in which information can reach a node via the links of the social network or through the influence of external sources. We then develop an efficient model parameter fitting technique and apply the model to the emergence of URL mentions in the Twitter network. Using a complete one month trace of Twitter we study how information reaches the nodes of the network. We quantify the external influences over time and describe how these influences affect the information adoption. We discover that the information tends to "jump" across the network, which can only be explained as an effect of an unobservable external influence on the network. We find that only about 71 of the information volume in Twitter can be attributed to network diffusion, and the remaining 29 is due to external events and factors outside the network. This article investigates the impact of user homophily on the social process of information diffusion in online social media. Over several decades, social scientists have been interested in the idea that similarity breeds connection: precisely known as "homophily". Homophily has been extensively studied in the social sciences and refers to the idea that users in a social system tend to bond more with ones who are similar to them than to ones who are dissimilar. The key observation is that homophily structures the ego-networks of individuals and impacts their communication behavior. It is therefore likely to effect the mechanisms in which information propagates among them. To this effect, we investigate the interplay between homophily along diverse user attributes and the information diffusion process on social media. In our approach, we first extract diffusion characteristics---corresponding to the baseline social graph as well as graphs filtered on different user attributes (e.g. location, activity). Second, we propose a Dynamic Bayesian Network based framework to predict diffusion characteristics at a future time. Third, the impact of attribute homophily is quantified by the ability of the predicted characteristics in explaining actual diffusion, and external variables, including trends in search and news. Experimental results on a large Twitter dataset demonstrate that choice of the homophilous attribute can impact the prediction of information diffusion, given a specific metric and a topic. In most cases, attribute homophily is able to explain the actual diffusion and external trends by 15-25 over cases when homophily is not considered. Social influence determines to a large extent what we adopt and when we adopt it. This is just as true in the digital domain as it is in real life, and has become of increasing importance due to the deluge of user-created content on the Internet. In this paper, we present an empirical study of user-to-user content transfer occurring in the context of a time-evolving social network in Second Life, a massively multiplayer virtual world. We identify and model social influence based on the change in adoption rate following the actions of one's friends and find that the social network plays a significant role in the adoption of content. Adoption rates quicken as the number of friends adopting increases and this effect varies with the connectivity of a particular user. We further find that sharing among friends occurs more rapidly than sharing among strangers, but that content that diffuses primarily through social influence tends to have a more limited audience. Finally, we examine the role of individuals, finding that some play a more active role in distributing content than others, but that these influencers are distinct from the early adopters. In many online social systems, social ties between users play an important role in dictating their behavior. One of the ways this can happen is through social influence, the phenomenon that the actions of a user can induce his her friends to behave in a similar way. In systems where social influence exists, ideas, modes of behavior, or new technologies can diffuse through the network like an epidemic. Therefore, identifying and understanding social influence is of tremendous interest from both analysis and design points of view. This is a difficult task in general, since there are factors such as homophily or unobserved confounding variables that can induce statistical correlation between the actions of friends in a social network. Distinguishing influence from these is essentially the problem of distinguishing correlation from causality, a notoriously hard statistical problem. In this paper we study this problem systematically. We define fairly general models that replicate the aforementioned sources of social correlation. We then propose two simple tests that can identify influence as a source of social correlation when the time series of user actions is available. We give a theoretical justification of one of the tests by proving that with high probability it succeeds in ruling out influence in a rather general model of social correlation. We also simulate our tests on a number of examples designed by randomly generating actions of nodes on a real social network (from Flickr) according to one of several models. Simulation results confirm that our test performs well on these data. Finally, we apply them to real tagging data on Flickr, exhibiting that while there is significant social correlation in tagging behavior on this system, this correlation cannot be attributed to social influence. Predicting the diffusion of information on social networks is a key problem for applications like Opinion Leader Detection, Buzz Detection or Viral Marketing. Many recent diffusion models are direct extensions of the Cascade and Threshold models, initially proposed for epidemiology and social studies. In such models, the diffusion process is based on the dynamics of interactions between neighbor nodes in the network (the social pressure), and largely ignores important dimensions as the content of the piece of information diffused. We propose here a new family of probabilistic models that aims at predicting how a content diffuses in a network by making use of additional dimensions: the content of the piece of information diffused, user's profile and willingness to diffuse. These models are illustrated and compared with other approaches on two blog datasets. The experimental results obtained on these datasets show that taking into account the content of the piece of information diffused is important to accurately model the diffusion process. The strength of weak ties is that they tend to be long—they connect socially distant locations, allowing information to diffuse rapidly. The authors test whether this “strength of weak ties” generalizes from simple to complex contagions. Complex contagions require social affirmation from multiple sources. Examples include the spread of high‐risk social movements, avant garde fashions, and unproven technologies. Results show that as adoption thresholds increase, long ties can impede diffusion. Complex contagions depend primarily on the width of the bridges across a network, not just their length. Wide bridges are a characteristic feature of many spatial networks, which may account in part for the widely observed tendency for social movements to diffuse spatially. We study the propagation of expression of moods from one individual to another in social media. Specifically, we utilize an ensemble of more than 200 moods, and follow their trails of retweets on Twitter. We examine the diffusion of these moods through the characteristics of the author of the retweeted post, of the post, and its linguistic style and topical content. We observe that moods of high valence and low to moderate activation propagate the most. Our findings also indicate that mood-bearing posts from individuals of medium #followers show highest diffusion, instead of elite users. Further, moods in postings with high self-attentional focus, posted by socially interactive women, and with fewer links diffuse the most. Finally, we leverage these characteristics to build a linear regression model that can predict extent of diffusion in a mood-bearing post. The model yields accuracy of 75 showing that user's attributes as well as post's language characteristics are key factors driving the diffusion of moods in social media. How does online content propagate on social networks? Billions of users generate, consume, and spread tons of information every day. This unprecedented scale of dynamics becomes invaluable to reflect our zeitgeist. However, most present diffusion extraction works have only touched individual user level and cannot obtain comprehensive clues. This paper introduces a new approach, i.e., COmmunity Level Diffusion (COLD), to uncover and explore temporal diffusion. We model topics and communities in a unified latent framework, and extract inter-community influence dynamics. With a well-designed multi-component model structure and a parallel inference implementation on GraphLab, the COLD method is expressive while remaining efficient. The extracted community level patterns enable diffusion exploration from a new perspective. We leverage the compact yet robust representations to develop new prediction and analysis applications. Extensive experiments on large social datasets show significant improvement in prediction accuracy. We can also find communities play very different roles in diffusion processes depending on their interest. Our method guarantees high scalability with increasing data size. In networks, contagions such as information, purchasing behaviors, and diseases, spread and diffuse from node to node over the edges of the network. Moreover, in real-world scenarios multiple contagions spread through the network simultaneously. These contagions not only propagate at the same time but they also interact and compete with each other as they spread over the network. While traditional empirical studies and models of diffusion consider individual contagions as independent and thus spreading in isolation, we study how different contagions interact with each other as they spread through the network. We develop a statistical model that allows for competition as well as cooperation of different contagions in information diffusion. Competing contagions decrease each other's probability of spreading, while cooperating contagions help each other in being adopted throughout the network. We evaluate our model on 18,000 contagions simultaneously spreading through the Twitter network. Our model learns how different contagions interact with each other and then uses these interactions to more accurately predict the diffusion of a contagion through the network. Moreover, the model also provides a compelling hypothesis for the principles that govern content interaction in information diffusion. Most importantly, we find very strong effects of interactions between contagions. Interactions cause a relative change in the spreading probability of a contagion by em 71 on the average. Unlike traditional epidemic virus spreading, behavior diffusion in social networks is conducted by rational users, who would make strategic choices instead of being randomly infected with some probability. Specifically, individuals always try to maximize their utilities through rationally selecting specific behaviors (adopting a new product, or spreading a rumor, etc.). However, utility obtained by an individual, naturally contains uncertainty, and it may stem from two sources: users’ imperfect and incomplete knowledge about others, and the inherently stochastic property in human behavior. Thus, it is imperative to model and analyze the diffusion pattern under the resulting uncertainty in social networks, which, however, has not yet been deeply examined by the existing works. This paper deeply explores the pattern of gossip diffusion in social networks when uncertainty exists in users’ decision making. In detail, the innovative results provided in this paper are: first, inspired by random utility theory, we formulate the diffusion model based on mixed logit model that allows for user’s uncertainty in determining whether to adopt a specific strategy; second, the formal analysis framework characterizing the diffusion process is derived through the approximation method of mean field theory; finally, we explore the extensive applicability of our proposed analysis framework through modeling rumor diffusion in social networks as a coordination game. Our findings are, for various structural characteristics, small uncertainty can significantly speed up the diffusion of gossip; furthermore, social networks with scale-free property can facilitate the gossip diffusion in the easiest way, but, the range of uncertainty factor that can maximize gossip diffusion is the smallest. The obtained results perfectly comply with the philosophical saying about rumor diffusion in real social life: easy come, easy go. Viral marketing takes advantage of preexisting social networks among customers to achieve large changes in behaviour. Models of influence spread have been studied in a number of domains, including the effect of "word of mouth" in the promotion of new products or the diffusion of technologies. A social network can be represented by a graph where the nodes are individuals and the edges indicate a form of social relationship. The flow of influence through this network can be thought of as an increasing process of active nodes: as individuals become aware of new technologies, they have the potential to pass them on to their neighbours. The goal of marketing is to trigger a large cascade of adoptions. In this paper, we develop a mathematical model that allows to analyze the dynamics of the cascading sequence of nodes switching to the new technology. To this end we describe a continuous-time and a discrete-time models and analyse the proportion of nodes that adopt the new technology over time. Social media forms a central domain for the production and dissemination of real-time information. Even though such flows of information have traditionally been thought of as diffusion processes over social networks, the underlying phenomena are the result of a complex web of interactions among numerous participants. Here we develop the Linear Influence Model where rather than requiring the knowledge of the social network and then modeling the diffusion by predicting which node will influence which other nodes in the network, we focus on modeling the global influence of a node on the rate of diffusion through the (implicit) network. We model the number of newly infected nodes as a function of which other nodes got infected in the past. For each node we estimate an influence function that quantifies how many subsequent infections can be attributed to the influence of that node over time. A nonparametric formulation of the model leads to a simple least squares problem that can be solved on large datasets. We validate our model on a set of 500 million tweets and a set of 170 million news articles and blog posts. We show that the Linear Influence Model accurately models influences of nodes and reliably predicts the temporal dynamics of information diffusion. We find that patterns of influence of individual participants differ significantly depending on the type of the node and the topic of the information. Platforms such as Twitter have provided researchers with ample opportunities to analytically study social phenomena. There are however, significant computational challenges due to the enormous rate of production of new information: researchers are therefore, often forced to analyze a judiciously selected “sample” of the data. Like other social media phenomena, information diffusion is a social process–it is affected by user context, and topic, in addition to the graph topology. This paper studies the impact of different attribute and topology based sampling strategies on the discovery of an important social media phenomena–information diffusion. We examine several widely-adopted sampling methods that select nodes based on attribute (random, location, and activity) and topology (forest fire) as well as study the impact of attribute based seed selection on topology based sampling. Then we develop a series of metrics for evaluating the quality of the sample, based on user activity (e.g. volume, number of seeds), topological (e.g. reach, spread) and temporal characteristics (e.g. rate). We additionally correlate the diffusion volume metric with two external variables–search and news trends. Our experiments reveal that for small sample sizes (30 ), a sample that incorporates both topology and user context (e.g. location, activity) can improve on naive methods by a significant margin of 15-20 . To understand the diffusive spreading of a product in a telecom network, whether the product is a service, handset, or subscription, it can be very useful to study the structure of the underlying social network. By combining mobile traffic data and product adoption history from one of Telenor’s markets, we can define and measure an adoption network—roughly, the social network of adopters. By studying the time evolution of adoption networks, we can observe how different products diffuses through the network, and measure potential social influence. This paper presents an empirical and comparative study of three adoption networks evolving over time in a large telecom network. We believe that the strongest spreading of adoption takes place in the dense core of the underlying network, and gives rise to a dominant largest connected component (LCC) in the adoption network, which we call “the social network monster”. We believe that the size of the monster is a good indicator for whether or not a product is taking off. We show that the evolution of the LCC, and the size distribution of the other components, vary strongly with different products. The products studied in this article illustrate three distinct cases: that the social network monsters can grow or break down over time, or fail to occur at all. Some of the reasons a product takes off are intrinsic to the product; there are also aspects of the broader social context that can play in. Tentative explanations are offered for these phenomena. Also, we present two statistical tests which give an indication of the strength of the spreading over the social network. We find evidence that the spreading is dependent on the underlying social network, in particular for the early adopters. The emergence and wide-spread use of online social networks has led to a dramatic increase on the availability of social activity data. Importantly, this data can be exploited to investigate, at a microscopic level, some of the problems that have captured the attention of economists, marketers and sociologists for decades, such as, e.g., product adoption, usage and competition. In this paper, we propose a continuous-time probabilistic model, based on temporal point processes, for the adoption and frequency of use of competing products, where the frequency of use of one product can be modulated by those of others. This model allows us to efficiently simulate the adoption and recurrent usages of competing products, and generate traces in which we can easily recognize the effect of social influence, recency and competition. We then develop an inference method to efficiently fit the model parameters by solving a convex program. The problem decouples into a collection of smaller subproblems, thus scaling easily to networks with hundred of thousands of nodes. We validate our model over synthetic and real diffusion data gathered from Twitter, and show that the proposed model does not only provides a good fit to the data and more accurate predictions than alternatives but also provides interpretable model parameters, which allow us to gain insights into some of the factors driving product adoption and frequency of use. Influential people have an important role in the process of information diffusion. However, there are several ways to be influential, for example, to be the most popular or the first that adopts a new idea. In this paper we present a methodology to find trendsetters in information networks according to a specific topic of interest. Trendsetters are people that adopt and spread new ideas influencing other people before these ideas become popular. At the same time, not all early adopters are trendsetters because only few of them have the ability of propagating their ideas by their social contacts through word-of-mouth. Differently from other influence measures, a trendsetter is not necessarily popular or famous, but the one whose ideas spread over the graph successfully. Other metrics such as node in-degree or even standard Pagerank focus only in the static topology of the network. We propose a ranking strategy that focuses on the ability of some users to push new ideas that will be successful in the future. To that end, we combine temporal attributes of nodes and edges of the network with a Pagerank based algorithm to find the trendsetters for a given topic. To test our algorithm we conduct innovative experiments over a large Twitter dataset. We show that nodes with high in-degree tend to arrive late for new trends, while users in the top of our ranking tend to be early adopters that also influence their social contacts to adopt the new trend. The wide adoption of social media has increased the competition among ideas for our finite attention. We employ a parsimonious agent-based model to study whether such a competition may affect the popularity of different memes, the diversity of information we are exposed to, and the fading of our collective interests for specific topics. Agents share messages on a social network but can only pay attention to a portion of the information they receive. In the emerging dynamics of information diffusion, a few memes go viral while most do not. The predictions of our model are consistent with empirical data from Twitter, a popular microblogging platform. Surprisingly, we can explain the massive heterogeneity in the popularity and persistence of memes as deriving from a combination of the competition for our limited attention and the structure of the social network, without the need to assume different intrinsic values among ideas. Models of networked diffusion that are motivated by analogy with the spread of infectious disease have been applied to a wide range of social and economic adoption processes, including those related to new products, ideas, norms and behaviors. However, it is unknown how accurately these models account for the empirical structure of diffusion over networks. Here we describe the diffusion patterns arising from seven online domains, ranging from communications platforms to networked games to microblogging services, each involving distinct types of content and modes of sharing. We find strikingly similar patterns across all domains. In particular, the vast majority of cascades are small, and are described by a handful of simple tree structures that terminate within one degree of an initial adopting "seed." In addition we find that structures other than these account for only a tiny fraction of total adoptions; that is, adoptions resulting from chains of referrals are extremely rare. Finally, even for the largest cascades that we observe, we find that the bulk of adoptions often takes place within one degree of a few dominant individuals. Together, these observations suggest new directions for modeling of online adoption processes. Given a social network G and a positive integer k, the influence maximization problem asks for k nodes (in G) whose adoptions of a certain idea or product can trigger the largest expected number of follow-up adoptions by the remaining nodes. This problem has been extensively studied in the literature, and the state-of-the-art technique runs in O((k+l) (n+m) log n e2) expected time and returns a (1-1 e-e)-approximate solution with at least 1 - 1 n l probability. This paper presents an influence maximization algorithm that provides the same worst-case guarantees as the state of the art, but offers significantly improved empirical efficiency. The core of our algorithm is a set of estimation techniques based on martingales, a classic statistical tool. Those techniques not only provide accurate results with small computation overheads, but also enable our algorithm to support a larger class of information diffusion models than existing methods do. We experimentally evaluate our algorithm against the states of the art under several popular diffusion models, using real social networks with up to 1.4 billion edges. Our experimental results show that the proposed algorithm consistently outperforms the states of the art in terms of computation efficiency, and is often orders of magnitude faster.