Sales forecasts are crucial for the E-commerce business. State-of-the-art techniques typically apply only univariate methods to make prediction for each series independently. However, due to the short nature of sales times series in E-commerce, univariate methods don't apply well. In this article, we propose a global model which outperforms state-of-the-art models on real dataset. It is achieved by using Tree Boosting Methods that exploit non-linearity and cross-series information. We also proposed a preprocessing framework to overcome the inherent difficulties in the E-commerce data. In particular, we use different schemes to limit the impact of the volatility of the data.
Recently, neural networks @cite_9 have been proposed to use cross-series information for the specific purpose of E-commerce. They adapt a Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network (LSTM) architecture to treat all the series at the same time. They also separate effects of longitudinal and temporal features and seem to have a good performance. This suggests that non-linearity is important for modelling such data.
@cite_9
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Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) is a specific recurrent neural network (RNN) architecture that was designed to model temporal sequences and their long-range dependencies more accurately than conventional RNNs. In this paper, we explore LSTM RNN architectures for large scale acoustic modeling in speech recognition. We recently showed that LSTM RNNs are more effective than DNNs and conventional RNNs for acoustic modeling, considering moderately-sized models trained on a single machine. Here, we introduce the first distributed training of LSTM RNNs using asynchronous stochastic gradient descent optimization on a large cluster of machines. We show that a two-layer deep LSTM RNN where each LSTM layer has a linear recurrent projection layer can exceed state-of-the-art speech recognition performance. This architecture makes more effective use of model parameters than the others considered, converges quickly, and outperforms a deep feed forward neural network having an order of magnitude more parameters. Index Terms: Long Short-Term Memory, LSTM, recurrent neural network, RNN, speech recognition, acoustic modeling.