In order to enable high-quality decision making and motion planning of intelligent systems such as robotics and autonomous vehicles, accurate probabilistic predictions for surrounding interactive objects is a crucial prerequisite. Although many research studies have been devoted to making predictions on a single entity, it remains an open challenge to forecast future behaviors for multiple interactive agents simultaneously. In this work, we take advantage of the Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) due to its capability of distribution learning and propose a generic multi-agent probabilistic prediction and tracking framework which takes the interactions among multiple entities into account, in which all the entities are treated as a whole. However, since GAN is very hard to train, we make an empirical research and present the relationship between training performance and hyperparameter values with a numerical case study. The results imply that the proposed model can capture both the mean, variance and multi-modalities of the groundtruth distribution. Moreover, we apply the proposed approach to a real-world task of vehicle behavior prediction to demonstrate its effectiveness and accuracy. The results illustrate that the proposed model trained by adversarial learning can achieve a better prediction performance than other state-of-the-art models trained by traditional supervised learning which maximizes the data likelihood. The well-trained model can also be utilized as an implicit proposal distribution for particle filtered based Bayesian state estimation.
In recent years, widely studied multi-target tracking and prediction approaches can be mainly classified into two groups: (a) end-to-end solutions based on deep learning and computer vision techniques; (b) state estimation based on Bayesian inference. In this paper, we only focus on the latter one with an emphasis on particle filter (aka. sequential Monte Carlo) due to its effectiveness and flexibility. @cite_1 provided a comprehensive summary of particle filter techniques. In the authors' previous work @cite_11 , a generic multi-target tracking framework without explicit data association was proposed which can incorporate arbitrary learning-based state evolution models to enhance tracking performance. The framework can be applied to prediction problems as well provided that the measurement update is removed. In this work, we employ the generator network in GAN as an implicit proposal distribution with high flexibility and generalizability which serves as the state evolution model in the tracking and prediction framework.
@cite_1 @cite_11
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Accurate and robust tracking of surrounding road participants plays an important role in autonomous driving. However, there is usually no prior knowledge of the number of tracking targets due to object emergence, object disappearance and false alarms. To overcome this challenge, we propose a generic vehicle tracking framework based on modified mixture particle filter, which can make the number of tracking targets adaptive to real-time observations and track all the vehicles within sensor range simultaneously in a uniform architecture without explicit data association. Each object corresponds to a mixture component whose distribution is non-parametric and approximated by particle hypotheses. Most tracking approaches employ vehicle kinematic models as the prediction model. However, it is hard for these models to make proper predictions when sensor measurements are lost or become low quality due to partial or complete occlusions. Moreover, these models are incapable of forecasting sudden maneuvers. To address these problems, we propose to incorporate learning-based behavioral models instead of pure vehicle kinematic models to realize prediction in the prior update of recursive Bayesian state estimation. Two typical driving scenarios including lane keeping and lane change are demonstrated to verify the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed framework as well as the advantages of employing learning-based models. Bayesian single-target tracking techniques can be extended to a multiple-target environment by viewing the multiple-target state as a random finite set, but evaluating the multiple-target posterior distribution is currently computationally intractable for real-time applications. A practical alternative to the optimal Bayes multitarget filter is the probability hypothesis density (PHD) filter, which propagates the first-order moment of the multitarget posterior instead of the posterior distribution itself. It has been shown that the PHD is the best-fit approximation of the multitarget posterior in an information-theoretic sense. The method avoids the need for explicit data association, as the target states are viewed as a single global target state, and the identities of the targets are not part of the tracking framework. Sequential Monte Carlo approximations of the PHD using particle filter techniques have been implemented, showing the potential of this technique for real-time tracking applications. This paper presents mathematical proofs of convergence for the particle filtering algorithm and gives bounds for the mean-square error