In this paper we study the problem of predictability in partially observable discrete event systems, i.e., the question whether an observer can predict the occurrence of a fault. We extend the definition of predictability to consider the time interval where the fault will occur: the @math -predictability does not only specify that the fault will be predicted before it occurs, but also that the predictor will be able to predict that its occurrence will occur in @math to @math observations from now. We also provide a quadratic algorithm that decides predictability of the system.
@PARASPLIT While this is a minor issue, we provide an example and a comprehensive discussion that illustrate the complexity error from J ' @cite_8 . Consider the example of Figure a. This DES includes @math states and @math transitions. The single observable event is @math and the single unobservable event is @math (this example does not feature any faulty event). The twin plant then consists in @math states and @math transitions (details in Table ). The @math -reduction, presented on Figure b, contains one state fewer than the original DES but @math transitions. As a consequence, the number of states in the twin plant reduces down to @math but the number of transitions shoots up to @math (details in Table ).
@cite_8
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Consider a uniform random rooted tree on vertices labelled by @math , with edges directed towards the root. We imagine that each node of the tree has space for a single car to park. A number @math of cars arrive one by one, each at a node chosen independently and uniformly at random. If a car arrives at a space which is already occupied, it follows the unique path oriented towards the root until it encounters an empty space, in which case it parks there; if there is no empty space, it leaves the tree. Consider @math and let @math denote the event that all @math cars find spaces in the tree. Lackner and Panholzer proved (via analytic combinatorics methods) that there is a phase transition in this model. Then if @math , we have @math , whereas if @math we have @math . We give a probabilistic explanation for this phenomenon, and an alternative proof via the objective method. Along the way, we are led to consider the following variant of the problem: take the tree to be the family tree of a Galton-Watson branching process with Poisson(1) offspring distribution, and let an independent Poisson( @math ) number of cars arrive at each vertex. Let @math be the number of cars which visit the root of the tree. Then for @math , we have @math , whereas for @math , we have @math . This discontinuous phase transition turns out to be a generic phenomenon in settings with an arbitrary offspring distribution of mean at least 1 for the tree and arbitrary arrival distribution.