In this paper, computational aspects of the panel aggregation problem are addressed. Motivated primarily by applications of risk assessment, an algorithm is developed for aggregating large corpora of internally incoherent probability assessments. The algorithm is characterized by a provable performance guarantee, and is demonstrated to be orders of magnitude faster than existing tools when tested on several real-world data-sets. In addition, unexpected connections between research in risk assessment and wireless sensor networks are exposed, as several key ideas are illustrated to be useful in both fields.
Finally, proponents of Dempster-Shafer theory @cite_7 (and associated fusion rules) object to probability as an idiom for belief, in part because of its inability to distinguish uncertainty from ignorance. The merits of Dempster-Shafer aside, one could argue for abstention as an expression of ignorance. As the preceding examples illustrate, even abstaining experts may disagree (i.e., experts' forecasts may be mutually incoherent), and therefore the panel aggregation problem remains. Thus, CAP is a natural aggregation principle in the setting where judges express uncertainty with probability and ignorance through abstention, and thereby extends the utility of probabilistic forecasts by affording experts more expressive beliefs with abstention.
@cite_7
2797148637
We propose an extended relational database model which can model both uncertainty and imprecision in data. This model is based on Dempster-Shafer theory which has become popular in AI as an uncertainty reasoning tool. The definitions of Be1 and Pls functions in Dempster-Shafer theory are extended to compute the beliefs of various comparisons (e.g., equality, less than, etc.) between two basic probability assignments. Based on these new definitions of Be1 and Pls functions and the Boolean combinations of Be1 and Pls values for two events, five relational operators such as Select, Cartesian Product, Join, Projection Intersect, and Union are defined.