We present our Zero Energy Network'' (ZEN) protocol stack for energy harvesting wireless sensor networks applications. The novelty in our work is @math fold: (1) Energy harvesting aware fully featured MAC layer. Carrier sensing, Backoff algorithms, ARQ, RTS CTS mechanisms, Adaptive Duty Cycling are either auto configurable or available as tunable parameters to match the available energy (b) Energy harvesting aware Routing Protocol. The multi-hop network establishes routes to the base station using a modified version of AODVjr routing protocol assisted by energy predictions. (c) Application of a time series called Holt-Winters'' for predicting the incoming energy. (d) A distributed smart application running over the ZEN stack which utilizes a multi parameter optimized perturbation technique to optimally use the available energy. The application is capable of programming the ZEN stack in an energy efficient manner. The energy harvested distributed smart application runs on a realistic solar energy trace with a three year seasonality database. We implement a smart application, capable of modifying itself to suit its own as well as the network's energy level. Our analytical results show a close match with the measurements conducted over EHWSN testbed.
Accurate prediction of the energy is an important factor for energy neutral operations. Time series based energy predictions are commonly used for predicting solar energy. Exponential Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) is commonly applied for future energy predictions @cite_8 , @cite_18 and assigns weights to data in the time series, assigning lower weights to older data and giving importance to more recently acquired data. Holt-Winters (HW) time series is widely used in stock markets trend analysis, production planning, healthcare decisions on staffing & purchasing, demand forecasting @cite_12 and for predicting share prices where forecast value takes trend and seasonal variation into account @cite_4 , @cite_2 . In @cite_26 a three state markov chain model is used to predict the solar energy source and their transition probabilities are restricted for day time only. Energy samples from a simulation model are also generated from the model.
@cite_18 @cite_26 @cite_4 @cite_8 @cite_2 @cite_12
2107221998 2168225348 2541942904 1991781995 2543817966 2028349680
Recently, Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) begin to use the solar energy. But the energy from the environment is usually unstable, An efficient solar prediction algorithm should be studied. In this paper, a novel solar energy prediction algorithm, namely Weather-Conditioned Selective Moving Average (WCSMA), is proposed by using the trend similarity of energy harvesting and the classification of sunny and cloudy days. The simulation results show that the relative mean error of WCSMA algorithm only around 10 , and it is much lower than the Exponential Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) algorithm which is widely used now. Solar panels are frequently used in wireless sensor nodes because they can theoretically provide quite a bit of harvested energy. However, they are not a reliable, consistent source of energy because of the Sun's cycles and the everchanging weather conditions. Thus, in this paper we present a fast, efficient and reliable solar prediction algorithm, namely, Weather-Conditioned Moving Average (WCMA) that is capable of exploiting the solar energy more efficiently than state-of-the-art energy prediction algorithms (e.g. Exponential Weighted Moving Average EWMA). In particular, WCMA is able to effectively take into account both the current and past-days weather conditions, obtaining a relative mean error of only 10 . When coupled with energy management algorithm, it can achieve gains of more than 90 in energy utilization with respect to EWMA under the real working conditions of the Shimmer node, an active sensing platform for structural health monitoring. The energy industry has been going through a significant modernization process over the last decade. Its infrastructure is being upgraded rapidly. The supply, demand and prices are becoming more volatile and less predictable than ever before. Even its business model is being challenged fundamentally. In this competitive and dynamic environment, many decision-making processes rely on probabilistic forecasts to quantify the uncertain future. Although most of the papers in the energy forecasting literature focus on point or single-valued forecasts, the research interest in probabilistic energy forecasting research has taken off rapidly in recent years. In this paper, we summarize the recent research progress on probabilistic energy forecasting. A major portion of the paper is devoted to introducing the Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2014 (GEFCom2014), a probabilistic energy forecasting competition with four tracks on load, price, wind and solar forecasting, which attracted 581 participants from 61 countries. We conclude the paper with 12 predictions for the next decade of energy forecasting. To sustain perpetual operation, systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their usage to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands are not elastic and its hardware components are not energy-proportional, since it cannot precisely scale its usage to match its supply. Instead, the system must choose when to satisfy its energy demands based on its current energy reserves and predictions of its future energy supply. In this paper, we explore the use of weather forecasts to improve a system's ability to satisfy demand by improving its predictions. We analyze weather forecast, observational, and energy harvesting data to formulate a model that translates a weather forecast to a wind or solar energy harvesting prediction, and quantify its accuracy. We evaluate our model for both energy sources in the context of two different energy harvesting sensor systems with inelastic demands: a sensor testbed that leases sensors to external users and a lexicographically fair sensor network that maintains steady node sensing rates. We show that using weather forecasts in both wind- and solar-powered sensor systems increases each system's ability to satisfy its demands compared with existing prediction strategies. Traditional wireless sensor networks (WSNs) face the problem of a limited-energy source, typically batteries, resulting in the need for careful and effective utilization of the energy source. However, inevitable energy depletion will eventually disturb the operation of a WSN. Energy harvesting (EH) technology is acquiring particular interest, because it has the potential to provide a continuous energy supply in battery-powered WSNs. Solar energy is the most effective environmental energy for EH-WSNs because of its high energy intensity, which comes from a non-controllable source. Therefore, the prediction of future energy availability is a critical issue, as the amount of the harvestable energy may vary over time. In this paper, a novel solar energy prediction algorithm with Q-learning, called Q-learning-based solar energy prediction (QL-SEP), is proposed. Q-learning is an effective way of predicting future actions based on past observations. The distinctive feature of QL-SEP is that not only past days observations but also the current weather conditions are considered for prediction. The performance of QL-SEP is simulated in this paper using real-world measurements obtained from a solar panel in comparison with the state-of-art approaches. Abstract Forecasting of energy demand in emerging markets is one of the most important policy tools used by the decision makers all over the world. In Turkey, most of the early studies used include various forms of econometric modeling. However, since the estimated economic and demographic parameters usually deviate from the realizations, time-series forecasting appears to give better results. In this study, we used the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) methods to estimate the future primary energy demand of Turkey from 2005 to 2020. The ARIMA forecasting of the total primary energy demand appears to be more reliable than the summation of the individual forecasts. The results have shown that the average annual growth rates of individual energy sources and total primary energy will decrease in all cases except wood and animalplant remains which will have negative growth rates. The decrease in the rate of energy demand may be interpreted that the energy intensity peak will be achieved in the coming decades. Another interpretation is that any decrease in energy demand will slow down the economic growth during the forecasted period. Rates of changes and reserves in the fossil fuels indicate that inter-fuel substitution should be made leading to a best mix of the country's energy system. Based on our findings we proposed some policy recommendations.