In many fields of social and industrial sciences, simulation is crucial in comprehending a target system. A major task in simulation is the estimation of optimal parameters to express the observed data need to directly elucidate the properties of the target system as a modeling based on the expert's domain knowledge. However, skilled human experts struggle to obtain the desired parameters. Data assimilation therefore becomes an unavoidable task to reduce the cost of simulator optimization. Another necessary task is extrapolation; in many practical cases, predictions based on simulation results will be often outside of the dominant range of a given data area, and this is referred to as the covariate shift. This paper focuses on a regression problem with covariate shift. While the parameter estimation for the covariate shift has been studied thoroughly in parametric and nonparametric settings, conventional statistical methods of parameter searching are not applicable in the data assimilation of the simulation owing to the properties of the likelihood function: intractable or nondifferentiable. Hence, we propose a novel framework of Bayesian inference based on kernel mean embedding. This framework allows for predictions in covariate shift situations, and its effectiveness is evaluated in both synthetic numerical experiments and a widely used production simulator reproducing real-world manufacturing factories.
Kernel mean embedding is a framework to map distributions into a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) @math as a feature space @cite_7 . Figure shows a schematic illustration of the kernel mean embedding. In this section, we briefly review three applications of kernel mean embedding: kernel ABC, kernel sum rule, and kernel herding. The detailed formulations of these methods are described in with the proposed method.
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A Hilbert space embedding of a distribution---in short, a kernel mean embedding---has recently emerged as a powerful tool for machine learning and inference. The basic idea behind this framework is to map distributions into a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) in which the whole arsenal of kernel methods can be extended to probability measures. It can be viewed as a generalization of the original "feature map" common to support vector machines (SVMs) and other kernel methods. While initially closely associated with the latter, it has meanwhile found application in fields ranging from kernel machines and probabilistic modeling to statistical inference, causal discovery, and deep learning. The goal of this survey is to give a comprehensive review of existing work and recent advances in this research area, and to discuss the most challenging issues and open problems that could lead to new research directions. The survey begins with a brief introduction to the RKHS and positive definite kernels which forms the backbone of this survey, followed by a thorough discussion of the Hilbert space embedding of marginal distributions, theoretical guarantees, and a review of its applications. The embedding of distributions enables us to apply RKHS methods to probability measures which prompts a wide range of applications such as kernel two-sample testing, independent testing, and learning on distributional data. Next, we discuss the Hilbert space embedding for conditional distributions, give theoretical insights, and review some applications. The conditional mean embedding enables us to perform sum, product, and Bayes' rules---which are ubiquitous in graphical model, probabilistic inference, and