Using the growing volumes of vehicle trajectory data, it becomes increasingly possible to capture time-varying and uncertain travel costs in a road network, including travel time and fuel consumption. The current paradigm represents a road network as a graph, assigns weights to the graph's edges by fragmenting trajectories into small pieces that fit the underlying edges, and then applies a routing algorithm to the resulting graph. We propose a new paradigm that targets more accurate and more efficient estimation of the costs of paths by associating weights with sub-paths in the road network. The paper provides a solution to a foundational problem in this paradigm, namely that of computing the time-varying cost distribution of a path. The solution consists of several steps. We first learn a set of random variables that capture the joint distributions of sub-paths that are covered by sufficient trajectories. Then, given a departure time and a path, we select an optimal subset of learned random variables such that the random variables' corresponding paths together cover the path. This enables accurate joint distribution estimation of the path, and by transferring the joint distribution into a marginal distribution, the travel cost distribution of the path is obtained. The use of multiple learned random variables contends with data sparseness, the use of multi-dimensional histograms enables compact representation of arbitrary joint distributions that fully capture the travel cost dependencies among the edges in paths. Empirical studies with substantial trajectory data from two different cities offer insight into the design properties of the proposed solution and suggest that the solution is effective in real-world settings.
The problem of estimating deterministic travel costs has been studied extensively. Most such studies focus on accurately estimating the travel costs of individual edges, based on which the travel cost of a path is then computed as the sum of the travel costs of its edges. Some recent studies employ GPS trajectories that generally cover more edges than does loop detector data. However, in many cases, the available trajectories are unable to cover all edges in a road network. To address the sparseness of the data, some methods @cite_14 @cite_15 @cite_11 @cite_1 transfer the travel costs of edges that are covered by trajectories to edges that are not covered by trajectories. In particular, the travel costs of an edge can be transferred to its adjacent edges @cite_15 @cite_14 and to edges that are topologically or geographically similar to the edge @cite_11 @cite_1 . In addition, some proposals consider the temporal context @cite_14 @cite_11 @cite_1 , i.e., peak vs. off-peak hours, while transferring travel costs. However, these methods do not support travel cost distributions, and they do not model the dependencies among edges. Therefore, they do not apply to the problem we consider.
@cite_15 @cite_14 @cite_1 @cite_11
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When planning routes, drivers usually consider a multitude of different travel costs, e.g., distances, travel times, and fuel consumption. Different drivers may choose different routes between the same source and destination because they may have different driving preferences (e.g., time-efficient driving v.s. fuel-efficient driving). However, existing routing services support little in modeling multiple travel costs and personalization—they usually deliver the same routes that minimize a single travel cost (e.g., the shortest routes or the fastest routes) to all drivers. We study the problem of how to recommend personalized routes to individual drivers using big trajectory data. First, we provide techniques capable of modeling and updating different drivers' driving preferences from the drivers' trajectories while considering multiple travel costs. To recommend personalized routes, we provide techniques that enable efficient selection of a subset of trajectories from all trajectories according to a driver's preference and the source, destination, and departure time specified by the driver. Next, we provide techniques that enable the construction of a small graph with appropriate edge weights reflecting how the driver would like to use the edges based on the selected trajectories. Finally, we recommend the shortest route in the small graph as the personalized route to the driver. Empirical studies with a large, real trajectory data set from 52,211 taxis in Beijing offer insight into the design properties of the proposed techniques and suggest that they are efficient and effective. This paper addresses the task of trajectory cost prediction, a new learning task for trajectories. The goal of this task is to predict the cost for an arbitrary (possibly unknown) trajectory, based on a set of previous trajectory-cost pairs. A typical example of this task is travel-time prediction on road networks. The main technical challenge here is to infer the costs of trajectories including links with no or little passage history. To tackle this, we introduce a weight propagation mechanism over the links, and show that the problem can be reduced to a simple form of kernel ridge regression. We also show that this new formulation leads us to a unifying view, where a natural choice of the kernel is suggested to an existing kernel-based alternative. In this paper, we propose a citywide and real-time model for estimating the travel time of any path (represented as a sequence of connected road segments) in real time in a city, based on the GPS trajectories of vehicles received in current time slots and over a period of history as well as map data sources. Though this is a strategically important task in many traffic monitoring and routing systems, the problem has not been well solved yet given the following three challenges. The first is the data sparsity problem, i.e., many road segments may not be traveled by any GPS-equipped vehicles in present time slot. In most cases, we cannot find a trajectory exactly traversing a query path either. Second, for the fragment of a path with trajectories, they are multiple ways of using (or combining) the trajectories to estimate the corresponding travel time. Finding an optimal combination is a challenging problem, subject to a tradeoff between the length of a path and the number of trajectories traversing the path (i.e., support). Third, we need to instantly answer users' queries which may occur in any part of a given city. This calls for an efficient, scalable and effective solution that can enable a citywide and real-time travel time estimation. To address these challenges, we model different drivers' travel times on different road segments in different time slots with a three dimension tensor. Combined with geospatial, temporal and historical contexts learned from trajectories and map data, we fill in the tensor's missing values through a context-aware tensor decomposition approach. We then devise and prove an object function to model the aforementioned tradeoff, with which we find the most optimal concatenation of trajectories for an estimate through a dynamic programming solution. In addition, we propose using frequent trajectory patterns (mined from historical trajectories) to scale down the candidates of concatenation and a suffix-tree-based index to manage the trajectories received in the present time slot. We evaluate our method based on extensive experiments, using GPS trajectories generated by more than 32,000 taxis over a period of two months. The results demonstrate the effectiveness, efficiency and scalability of our method beyond baseline approaches. We are witnessing increasing interests in the effective use of road networks. For example, to enable effective vehicle routing, weighted-graph models of transportation networks are used, where the weight of an edge captures some cost associated with traversing the edge, e.g., greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions or travel time. It is a precondition to using a graph model for routing that all edges have weights. Weights that capture travel times and GHG emissions can be extracted from GPS trajectory data collected from the network. However, GPS trajectory data typically lack the coverage needed to assign weights to all edges. This paper formulates and addresses the problem of annotating all edges in a road network with travel cost based weights from a set of trips in the network that cover only a small fraction of the edges, each with an associated ground-truth travel cost. A general framework is proposed to solve the problem. Specifically, the problem is modeled as a regression problem and solved by minimizing a judiciously designed objective function that takes into account the topology of the road network. In particular, the use of weighted PageRank values of edges is explored for assigning appropriate weights to all edges, and the property of directional adjacency of edges is also taken into account to assign weights. Empirical studies with weights capturing travel time and GHG emissions on two road networks (Skagen, Denmark, and North Jutland, Denmark) offer insight into the design properties of the proposed techniques and offer evidence that the techniques are effective.