In this paper, we analyze the growth patterns of Donald Trump's followers (Trumpists, henceforth) on Twitter. We first construct a random walk model with a time trend to study the growth trend and the effects of public debates. We then analyze the relationship between Trump's activity on Twitter and the growth of his followers. Thirdly, we analyze the effects of such controversial events as calling for Muslim ban and his 'schlonged' remark.
There is a burgeoning literature in computer science on using social media data to analyze and predict elections. Research by @cite_4 finds that the number of messages mentioning a party reflects the election results. According to @cite_5 , the number of Facebook fans constitutes an indicator of candidate viability. @cite_6 use user profile images to study and compare the social demographics of Trump followers and Clinton followers. Similarly, our work is also motivated by the high parallel between performance in the polls and popularity in Twitter. @cite_3 employ LDA to model tweet topics and use negative binomial regression on the number of tweet likes' to infer topic preferences of Trump followers.
@cite_5 @cite_3 @cite_4 @cite_6
2296105616 1590495275 2963817807
In this paper, we propose a framework to infer the topic preferences of Donald Trump's followers on Twitter. We first use latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) to derive the weighted mixture of topics for each Trump tweet. Then we use negative binomial regression to model the "likes," with the weights of each topic serving as explanatory variables. Our study shows that attacking Democrats such as President Obama and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton earns Trump the most "likes." Our framework of inference is generalizable to the study of other politicians. Twitter is a microblogging website where users read and write millions of short messages on a variety of topics every day. This study uses the context of the German federal election to investigate whether Twitter is used as a forum for political deliberation and whether online messages on Twitter validly mirror offline political sentiment. Using LIWC text analysis software, we conducted a content-analysis of over 100,000 messages containing a reference to either a political party or a politician. Our results show that Twitter is indeed used extensively for political deliberation. We find that the mere number of messages mentioning a party reflects the election result. Moreover, joint mentions of two parties are in line with real world political ties and coalitions. An analysis of the tweets’ political sentiment demonstrates close correspondence to the parties' and politicians’ political positions indicating that the content of Twitter messages plausibly reflects the offline political landscape. We discuss the use of microblogging message content as a valid indicator of political sentiment and derive suggestions for further research. In this paper, we study follower demographics of Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, the two leading candidates in the 2016 U.S. presidential race. We build a unique dataset US2016, which includes the number of followers for each candidate from September 17, 2015 to December 22, 2015. US2016 also includes the geographical location of these followers, the number of their own followers and, very importantly, the profile image of each follower. We use individuals’ number of followers and profile images to analyze four dimensions of follower demographics: social status, gender, race and age. Our study shows that in terms of social influence, the Trumpists are more polarized than the Clintonists: they tend to have either a lot of influence or little influence. We also find that compared with the Clintonists, the Trumpists are more likely to be either very young or very old. Our study finds no gender affinity effect for Clinton in the Twitter sphere, but we do find that the Clintonists are more racially diverse.