Stochastic simulation is a widely used method for estimating quantities in models of chemical reaction networks where uncertainty plays a crucial role. However, reducing the statistical uncertainty of the corresponding estimators requires the generation of a large number of simulation runs, which is computationally expensive. To reduce the number of necessary runs, we propose a variance reduction technique based on control variates. We exploit constraints on the statistical moments of the stochastic process to reduce the estimators' variances. We develop an algorithm that selects appropriate control variates in an on-line fashion and demonstrate the efficiency of our approach on several case studies.
If the state-space is finite and small enough one can deal with the underlying Markov chain directly. But there are also cases where the transient distribution has an infinitely large support and one can still deal with explicit state probabilities. To this end, one can fix a finite state-space, that should contain most of the probability @cite_6 . Refinements of the method work dynamically and adjust the state-space according to the transient distributions @cite_9 @cite_7 @cite_23 .
@cite_9 @cite_23 @cite_7 @cite_6
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We propose a numerical technique for parameter inference in Markov models of biological processes. Based on time-series data of a process we estimate the kinetic rate constants by maximizing the likelihood of the data. The computation of the likelihood relies on a dynamic abstraction of the discrete state space of the Markov model which successfully mitigates the problem of state space largeness. We compare two variants of our method to state-of-the-art, recently published methods and demonstrate their usefulness and efficiency on several case studies from systems biology. Within systems biology there is an increasing interest in the stochastic behaviour of biochemical reaction networks. An appropriate stochastic description is provided by the chemical master equation, which represents a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC). The uniformisation technique is an efficient method to compute probability distributions of a CTMC if the number of states is manageable. However, the size of a CTMC that represents a biochemical reaction network is usually far beyond what is feasible. In this study, the authors present an on-the-fly variant of uniformisation, where they improve the original algorithm at the cost of a small approximation error. By means of several examples, the authors show that their approach is particularly well-suited for biochemical reaction networks. We present an on-the-fly abstraction technique for infinite-state continuous -time Markov chains. We consider Markov chains that are specified by a finite set of transition classes. Such models naturally represent biochemical reactions and therefore play an important role in the stochastic modeling of biological systems. We approximate the transient probability distributions at various time instances by solving a sequence of dynamically constructed abstract models, each depending on the previous one. Each abstract model is a finite Markov chain that represents the behavior of the original, infinite chain during a specific time interval. Our approach provides complete information about probability distributions, not just about individual parameters like the mean. The error of each abstraction can be computed, and the precision of the abstraction refined when desired. We implemented the algorithm and demonstrate its usefulness and efficiency on several case studies from systems biology. This article introduces the finite state projection (FSP) method for use in the stochastic analysis of chemically reacting systems. One can describe the chemical populations of such systems with probability density vectors that evolve according to a set of linear ordinary differential equations known as the chemical master equation (CME). Unlike Monte Carlo methods such as the stochastic simulation algorithm (SSA) or τ leaping, the FSP directly solves or approximates the solution of the CME. If the CME describes a system that has a finite number of distinct population vectors, the FSP method provides an exact analytical solution. When an infinite or extremely large number of population variations is possible, the state space can be truncated, and the FSP method provides a certificate of accuracy for how closely the truncated space approximation matches the true solution. The proposed FSP algorithm systematically increases the projection space in order to meet prespecified tolerance in the total probabilit...