Long-term sensor network deployments demand careful power management. While managing power requires understanding the amount of energy harvestable from the local environment, current solar prediction methods rely only on recent local history, which makes them susceptible to high variability. In this paper, we present a model and algorithms for distributed solar current prediction, based on multiple linear regression to predict future solar current based on local, in-situ climatic and solar measurements. These algorithms leverage spatial information from neighbors and adapt to the changing local conditions not captured by global climatic information. We implement these algorithms on our Fleck platform and run a 7-week-long experiment validating our work. In analyzing our results from this experiment, we determined that computing our model requires an increased energy expenditure of 4.5mJ over simpler models (on the order of 10^ -7 of the harvested energy) to gain a prediction improvement of 39.7 .
Energy Prediction Past research projects into energy prediction focus on predicting the future harvestable energy to input into power management models. @cite_12 perform offline linear programming techniques to predict future energy in addition to control methods; the paper describes a simulation of this with no field instantiation. @cite_8 compute offline predictions of sunlight for daylight harvesting. Their approach combines regression analysis with similarity identification and ensemble predictions; the work focuses on finer-grained predictions than ours in addition to its online focus. @cite_21 include National Weather Service forecasts in an offline model to predict solar panel output; as described in their paper, the work is specific to their solar panel system with a focus on data analysis and offline simulation.
@cite_21 @cite_12 @cite_8
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To sustain perpetual operation, systems that harvest environmental energy must carefully regulate their usage to satisfy their demand. Regulating energy usage is challenging if a system's demands are not elastic and its hardware components are not energy-proportional, since it cannot precisely scale its usage to match its supply. Instead, the system must choose when to satisfy its energy demands based on its current energy reserves and predictions of its future energy supply. In this paper, we explore the use of weather forecasts to improve a system's ability to satisfy demand by improving its predictions. We analyze weather forecast, observational, and energy harvesting data to formulate a model that translates a weather forecast to a wind or solar energy harvesting prediction, and quantify its accuracy. We evaluate our model for both energy sources in the context of two different energy harvesting sensor systems with inelastic demands: a sensor testbed that leases sensors to external users and a lexicographically fair sensor network that maintains steady node sensing rates. We show that using weather forecasts in both wind- and solar-powered sensor systems increases each system's ability to satisfy its demands compared with existing prediction strategies. This paper is concerned with solar driven sensors deployed in an outdoor environment. We present feedback controllers which adapt parameters of the application such that a maximal utility is obtained while respecting the time-varying amount of available energy. We show that already simple applications lead to complex optimization problems, involving unacceptable running times and energy consumptions for resource constrained nodes. In addition, naive designs are highly susceptible to energy prediction errors. We address both issues by proposing a hierarchical control approach which both reduces complexity and increases robustness towards prediction uncertainty. As a key component of this hierarchical approach, we propose a new worst-case energy prediction algorithm which guarantees sustainable operation. All methods are evaluated using long-term measurements of solar energy in an outdoor setting. Furthermore, we measured the implementation overhead on a real sensor node. ABSTRACT Daylight harvesting is the use of natural sunlight to reduce the need for artificial lighting in buildings. The key challenge of daylight harvesting is to provide stable indoor lighting levels even though natural sunlight is not a stable light source. In this paper, we present a new technique called SunCast that improves lighting stability by predicting changes in future sunlight levels. The system has two parts: 1) it learns predictable sunlight patterns due to trees, nearby buildings, or other environmental factors, and 2) it controls the window transparency based on a quadratic optimization over predicted sunlight levels. To evaluate the system, we record daylight levels at 39 different windows for up to 12 weeks at a time, and apply our control algorithm on the data traces. Our results indicate that SunCast can reduce glare by 59 over a baseline approach with only a marginal increase in artificial lighting energy.