We focus on adversarial patrolling games on arbitrary graphs, where the Defender can control a mobile resource, the targets are alarmed by an alarm system, and the Attacker can observe the actions of the mobile resource of the Defender and perform different attacks exploiting multiple resources. This scenario can be modeled as a zero-sum extensive-form game in which each player can play multiple times. The game tree is exponentially large both in the size of the graph and in the number of attacking resources. We show that when the number of the Attacker's resources is free, the problem of computing the equilibrium path is NP-hard, while when the number of resources is fixed, the equilibrium path can be computed in poly-time. We provide a dynamic-programming algorithm that, given the number of the Attacker's resources, computes the equilibrium path requiring poly-time in the size of the graph and exponential time in the number of the resources. Furthermore, since in real-world scenarios it is implausible that the Defender knows the number of attacking resources, we study the robustness of the Defender's strategy when she makes a wrong guess about that number. We show that even the error of just a single resource can lead to an arbitrary inefficiency, when the inefficiency is defined as the ratio of the Defender's utilities obtained with a wrong guess and a correct guess. However, a more suitable definition of inefficiency is given by the difference of the Defender's utilities: this way, we observe that the higher the error in the estimation, the higher the loss for the Defender. Then, we investigate the performance of online algorithms when no information about the Attacker's resources is available. Finally, we resort to randomized online algorithms showing that we can obtain a competitive factor that is twice better than the one that can be achieved by any deterministic online algorithm.
These games constitute a novel game model where a generalized Stackelberg assumption is made @cite_10 . As it happens in our game model, the Attacker can perform multiple attacks. However, GSGs are repeated games in which, at each repetition, the same game is played. Differently, in our game model, players play a unique (non-repeated game) on a game tree. Furthermore, we adopt the common full-rationality assumption made in game-theoretic frameworks, while in GSGs a bounded rationality assumption is made. Such assumption is central in the application domain to which Green Security Games apply. Conversely, our primary focus is on studying the worst case, thus playing against a rational adversary. Our work is different from works dealing with such problem, e.g., @cite_6 : in our model, as it is common in real-world applications, the Attacker needs multiple turns to conquer a target while in @cite_6 only one-shot attacks are considered, without the possibility of deceiving the Defender.
@cite_10 @cite_6
2292491317 2493209841
Building on the successful applications of Stackelberg Security Games (SSGs) to protect infrastructure, researchers have begun focusing on applying game theory to green security domains such as protection of endangered animals and fish stocks. Previous efforts in these domains optimize defender strategies based on the standard Stackelberg assumption that the adversaries become fully aware of the defender's strategy before taking action. Unfortunately, this assumption is inappropriate since adversaries in green security domains often lack the resources to fully track the defender strategy. This paper (i) introduces Green Security Games (GSGs), a novel game model for green security domains with a generalized Stackelberg assumption; (ii) provides algorithms to plan effective sequential defender strategies -- such planning was absent in previous work; (iii) proposes a novel approach to learn adversary models that further improves defender performance; and (iv) provides detailed experimental analysis of proposed approaches. Wildlife poaching presents a serious extinction threat to many animal species. Agencies ("defenders") focused on protecting such animals need tools that help analyze, model and predict poacher activities, so they can more effectively combat such poaching; such tools could also assist in planning effective defender patrols, building on the previous security games research. To that end, we have built a new predictive anti-poaching tool, CAPTURE (Comprehensive Anti-Poaching tool with Temporal and observation Uncertainty REasoning). CAPTURE provides four main contributions. First, CAPTURE's modeling of poachers provides significant advances over previous models from behavioral game theory and conservation biology. This accounts for:(i) the defender's imperfect detection of poaching signs; (ii) complex temporal dependencies in the poacher's behaviors; (iii) lack of knowledge of numbers of poachers. Second, we provide two new heuristics: parameter separation and target abstraction to reduce the computational complexity in learning the poacher models. Third, we present a new game-theoretic algorithm for computing the defender's optimal patrolling given the complex poacher model. Finally, we present detailed models and analysis of real-world poaching data collected over 12 years in Queen Elizabeth National Park in Uganda to evaluate our new model's prediction accuracy. This paper thus presents the largest dataset of real-world defender-adversary interactions analyzed in the security games literature. CAPTURE will be tested in Uganda in early 2016.