We address the problem of incrementally modeling and forecasting long-term goals of a first-person camera wearer: what the user will do, where they will go, and what goal they seek. In contrast to prior work in trajectory forecasting, our algorithm, DARKO, goes further to reason about semantic states (will I pick up an object?), and future goal states that are far in terms of both space and time. DARKO learns and forecasts from first-person visual observations of the user's daily behaviors via an Online Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL) approach. Classical IRL discovers only the rewards in a batch setting, whereas DARKO discovers the states, transitions, rewards, and goals of a user from streaming data. Among other results, we show DARKO forecasts goals better than competing methods in both noisy and ideal settings, and our approach is theoretically and empirically no-regret.
Given agent demonstrations, the task of (IRL) is to recover a of an underlying Markov Decision Process (MDP) @cite_26 . IRL has been used to model taxi driver behavior @cite_2 and pedestrian behavior @cite_34 @cite_14 . In contrast to previous work, we go beyond physical trajectory forecasting by reasoning over future object interactions and predicting future goals in terms of scene types.
@cite_14 @cite_26 @cite_34 @cite_2
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We consider learning in a Markov decision process where we are not explicitly given a reward function, but where instead we can observe an expert demonstrating the task that we want to learn to perform. This setting is useful in applications (such as the task of driving) where it may be difficult to write down an explicit reward function specifying exactly how different desiderata should be traded off. We think of the expert as trying to maximize a reward function that is expressible as a linear combination of known features, and give an algorithm for learning the task demonstrated by the expert. Our algorithm is based on using "inverse reinforcement learning" to try to recover the unknown reward function. We show that our algorithm terminates in a small number of iterations, and that even though we may never recover the expert's reward function, the policy output by the algorithm will attain performance close to that of the expert, where here performance is measured with respect to the expert's unknown reward function. We present a novel approach for determining robot movements that efficiently accomplish the robot's tasks while not hindering the movements of people within the environment. Our approach models the goal-directed trajectories of pedestrians using maximum entropy inverse optimal control. The advantage of this modeling approach is the generality of its learned cost function to changes in the environment and to entirely different environments. We employ the predictions of this model of pedestrian trajectories in a novel incremental planner and quantitatively show the improvement in hindrance-sensitive robot trajectory planning provided by our approach. Recent research has shown the benefit of framing problems of imitation learning as solutions to Markov Decision Problems. This approach reduces learning to the problem of recovering a utility function that makes the behavior induced by a near-optimal policy closely mimic demonstrated behavior. In this work, we develop a probabilistic approach based on the principle of maximum entropy. Our approach provides a well-defined, globally normalized distribution over decision sequences, while providing the same performance guarantees as existing methods. We develop our technique in the context of modeling real-world navigation and driving behaviors where collected data is inherently noisy and imperfect. Our probabilistic approach enables modeling of route preferences as well as a powerful new approach to inferring destinations and routes based on partial trajectories.