Abstract Early hospital mortality prediction is critical as intensivists strive to make efficient medical decisions about the severely ill patients staying in intensive care units (ICUs). As a result, various methods have been developed to address this problem based on clinical records. However, some of the laboratory test results are time-consuming and need to be processed. In this paper, we propose a novel method to predict mortality using features extracted from the heart signals of patients within the first hour of ICU admission. In order to predict the risk, quantitative features have been computed based on the heart rate signals of ICU patients suffering cardiovascular diseases. Each signal is described in terms of 12 statistical and signal-based features. The extracted features are fed into eight classifiers: decision tree, linear discriminant, logistic regression, support vector machine (SVM), random forest, boosted trees, Gaussian SVM, and K-nearest neighborhood (K-NN). To derive insight into the performance of the proposed method, several experiments have been conducted using the well-known clinical dataset named Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care III (MIMIC-III). The experimental results demonstrate the capability of the proposed method in terms of precision, recall, F1-score, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The decision tree classifier satisfies both accuracy and interpretability better than the other classifiers, producing an F1-score and AUC equal to 0.91 and 0.93 , respectively. It indicates that heart rate signals can be used for predicting mortality in patients in the care units especially coronary care units (CCUs), achieving a comparable performance with existing predictions that rely on high dimensional features from clinical records which need to be processed and may contain missing information.
The customized models make a decision according to the characteristics of either specific health problems such as cardiorespiratory arrest @cite_33 and early severe sepsis @cite_40 , or specific geographical areas such as France @cite_27 or Australia @cite_34 . For instance, Le Gall and coworkers @cite_27 customized the SAPS II model based on the French patients' characteristics. They used the logit of the original SAPS II model and computed the coefficients according to the data. Furthermore, they tried to expand the second version of SAPS by adding six variables (age, sex, length of hospital stay before ICU admission, and the patient's location before ICU) that are potentially associated with mortality. Although these models provide adequate results, most ICU patients are elderly people over @math years @cite_24 who are faced with multiple ailments. Also, selecting the right model is challenging due to the variety of patients who are immediately admitted to ICU. Moreover, the models for specific geographical areas are not extendable for other cases.
@cite_33 @cite_24 @cite_27 @cite_40 @cite_34
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Abstract With the introduction of the large number of fitness devices on the market, there are numerous possibilities for their use in managing chronic diseases in older adults. For example, monitoring people with dementia using commercially available devices that measure heart rate, breathing rate, lung volume, step count, and activity level could be used to predict episodic behavioral and psychological symptoms before they become distressing or disruptive. However, since these devices are designed primarily for fitness assessment, validation of the sensors in a controlled environment with the target cohort population is needed. In this study, we present validation results using a commercial fitness tracker, the Hexoskin sensor vest, with thirty-one participants aged 65 and older. Estimated physiological measures investigated in this study are heart rate, breathing rate, lung volume, step count, and activity level of the participants. Findings indicate that while the processed step count, heart rate, and breathing rate show strong correlations to the clinically accepted gold standard values, lung volume and activity level do not. This indicates the need to proceed cautiously when making clinical decisions using such sensors, and suggests that users should focus on the three strongly correlated parameters for further analysis, at least in the older population. The use of physiological measurement devices such as the Hexoskin may eventually become a non-intrusive way to continuously assess physiological measures in older adults with dementia who are at risk for distressing behavioral and psychological symptoms. Introduction The standardized mortality ratio (SMR) is commonly used for benchmarking intensive care units (ICUs). Available mortality prediction models are outdated and must be adapted to current populations of interest. The objective of this study was to improve the Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II for mortality prediction in ICUs, thereby improving SMR estimates. Objective. —To develop customized versions of the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II) and the 24-hour Mortality Probability Model II (MPM II24) to estimate the probability of mortality for intensive care unit patients with early severe sepsis. Design and Setting. —Logistic regression models developed for patients with severe sepsis in a database of adult medical and surgical intensive care units in 12 countries. Patients. —Of 11 458 patients in the intensive care unit for at least 24 hours, 1130 had severe sepsis based on criteria of the American College of Chest Physicians and the Society of Critical Care Medicine (systemic inflammatory response syndrome in response to infection, plus hypotension, hypoperfusion, or multiple organ dysfunction). Results. —In patients with severe sepsis, mortality was higher (48.0 vs 19.6 among other patients) and 28-day survival was lower. The customized SAPS II was well calibrated (P=.92 for the goodness-of-fit test) and discriminated well (area under the receiver operating characteristic [ROC] curve, 0.78). Performance in the validation sample was equally good (P=.85 for the goodness-of-fit test; area under the ROC curve, 0.79). The customized MPM II24was well calibrated (P=.92 for the goodness-of-fit test) and discriminated well (area under the ROC curve, 0.79). Performance in the validation sample was equally good (P=.52 for the goodness-of-fit test; area under the ROC curve, 0.75). The models are independent of each other; either can be used alone to estimate the probability of mortality of patients with severe sepsis. Conclusions. —Customization provides a simple technique to apply existing models to a subgroup of patients. Accurately assessing the probability of hospital mortality is a useful adjunct for clinical trials. (JAMA. 1995;273:644-650) Objective To test the prognostic performance of the SAPS 3 Admission Score in a regional cohort and to empirically test the need and feasibility of regional customization.