We propose the use of a stochastic variational frame prediction deep neural network with a learned prior distribution trained on two-dimensional rain radar reflectivity maps for precipitation nowcasting with lead times of up to 2 1 2 hours. We present a comparison to a standard convolutional LSTM network and assess the evolution of the structural similarity index for both methods. Case studies are presented that illustrate that the novel methodology can yield meaningful forecasts without excessive blur for the time horizons of interest.
Several approaches to video frame prediction using deep learning have been proposed in recent years, in particular methods based on LSTM autoencoders-like networks @cite_8 @cite_13 @cite_0 @cite_4 , generative adversarial network @cite_1 @cite_10 @cite_12 and probabilistic approaches @cite_15 .
@cite_4 @cite_8 @cite_10 @cite_1 @cite_0 @cite_15 @cite_13 @cite_12
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We use Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) networks to learn representations of video sequences. Our model uses an encoder LSTM to map an input sequence into a fixed length representation. This representation is decoded using single or multiple decoder LSTMs to perform different tasks, such as reconstructing the input sequence, or predicting the future sequence. We experiment with two kinds of input sequences - patches of image pixels and high-level representations ("percepts") of video frames extracted using a pretrained convolutional net. We explore different design choices such as whether the decoder LSTMs should condition on the generated output. We analyze the outputs of the model qualitatively to see how well the model can extrapolate the learned video representation into the future and into the past. We further evaluate the representations by finetuning them for a supervised learning problem - human action recognition on the UCF-101 and HMDB-51 datasets. We show that the representations help improve classification accuracy, especially when there are only few training examples. Even models pretrained on unrelated datasets (300 hours of YouTube videos) can help action recognition performance. Predicting the future in real-world settings, particularly from raw sensory observations such as images, is exceptionally challenging. Real-world events can be stochastic and unpredictable, and the high dimensionality and complexity of natural images requires the predictive model to build an intricate understanding of the natural world. Many existing methods tackle this problem by making simplifying assumptions about the environment. One common assumption is that the outcome is deterministic and there is only one plausible future. This can lead to low-quality predictions in real-world settings with stochastic dynamics. In this paper, we develop a stochastic variational video prediction (SV2P) method that predicts a different possible future for each sample of its latent variables. To the best of our knowledge, our model is the first to provide effective stochastic multi-frame prediction for real-world video. We demonstrate the capability of the proposed method in predicting detailed future frames of videos on multiple real-world datasets, both action-free and action-conditioned. We find that our proposed method produces substantially improved video predictions when compared to the same model without stochasticity, and to other stochastic video prediction methods. Our SV2P implementation will be open sourced upon publication. Learning to predict future images from a video sequence involves the construction of an internal representation that models the image evolution accurately, and therefore, to some degree, its content and dynamics. This is why pixel-space video prediction may be viewed as a promising avenue for unsupervised feature learning. In addition, while optical flow has been a very studied problem in computer vision for a long time, future frame prediction is rarely approached. Still, many vision applications could benefit from the knowledge of the next frames of videos, that does not require the complexity of tracking every pixel trajectories. In this work, we train a convolutional network to generate future frames given an input sequence. To deal with the inherently blurry predictions obtained from the standard Mean Squared Error (MSE) loss function, we propose three different and complementary feature learning strategies: a multi-scale architecture, an adversarial training method, and an image gradient difference loss function. We compare our predictions to different published results based on recurrent neural networks on the UCF101 dataset Being able to predict what may happen in the future requires an in-depth understanding of the physical and causal rules that govern the world. A model that is able to do so has a number of appealing applications, from robotic planning to representation learning. However, learning to predict raw future observations, such as frames in a video, is exceedingly challenging -- the ambiguous nature of the problem can cause a naively designed model to average together possible futures into a single, blurry prediction. Recently, this has been addressed by two distinct approaches: (a) latent variational variable models that explicitly model underlying stochasticity and (b) adversarially-trained models that aim to produce naturalistic images. However, a standard latent variable model can struggle to produce realistic results, and a standard adversarially-trained model underutilizes latent variables and fails to produce diverse predictions. We show that these distinct methods are in fact complementary. Combining the two produces predictions that look more realistic to human raters and better cover the range of possible futures. Our method outperforms prior and concurrent work in these aspects. We study the problem of synthesizing a number of likely future frames from a single input image. In contrast to traditional methods, which have tackled this problem in a deterministic or non-parametric way, we propose a novel approach that models future frames in a probabilistic manner. Our probabilistic model makes it possible for us to sample and synthesize many possible future frames from a single input image. Future frame synthesis is challenging, as it involves low- and high-level image and motion understanding. We propose a novel network structure, namely a Cross Convolutional Network to aid in synthesizing future frames; this network structure encodes image and motion information as feature maps and convolutional kernels, respectively. In experiments, our model performs well on synthetic data, such as 2D shapes and animated game sprites, as well as on real-wold videos. We also show that our model can be applied to tasks such as visual analogy-making, and present an analysis of the learned network representations. Generating video frames that accurately predict future world states is challenging. Existing approaches either fail to capture the full distribution of outcomes, or yield blurry generations, or both. In this paper we introduce an unsupervised video generation model that learns a prior model of uncertainty in a given environment. Video frames are generated by drawing samples from this prior and combining them with a deterministic estimate of the future frame. The approach is simple and easily trained end-to-end on a variety of datasets. Sample generations are both varied and sharp, even many frames into the future, and compare favorably to those from existing approaches. We learn models to generate the immediate future in video. This problem has two main challenges. Firstly, since the future is uncertain, models should be multi-modal, which can be difficult to learn. Secondly, since the future is similar to the past, models store low-level details, which complicates learning of high-level semantics. We propose a framework to tackle both of these challenges. We present a model that generates the future by transforming pixels in the past. Our approach explicitly disentangles the models memory from the prediction, which helps the model learn desirable invariances. Experiments suggest that this model can generate short videos of plausible futures. We believe predictive models have many applications in robotics, health-care, and video understanding.