We consider the problem of off-policy evaluation in Markov decision processes. Off-policy evaluation is the task of evaluating the expected return of one policy with data generated by a different, behavior policy. Importance sampling is a technique for off-policy evaluation that re-weights off-policy returns to account for differences in the likelihood of the returns between the two policies. In this paper, we study importance sampling with an estimated behavior policy where the behavior policy estimate comes from the same set of data used to compute the importance sampling estimate. We find that this estimator often lowers the mean squared error of off-policy evaluation compared to importance sampling with the true behavior policy or using a behavior policy that is estimated from a separate data set. Our empirical results also extend to other popular variants of importance sampling and show that estimating a non-Markovian behavior policy can further lower mean squared error even when the true behavior policy is Markovian.
A large body of work exists on lowering the variance of importance sampling for off-policy evaluation. Such approaches include control variates @cite_3 @cite_2 , normalized importance weights @cite_4 @cite_5 , and importance ratio clipping @cite_19 . These variance reduction strategies are complementary to regression importance sampling; any of these methods can be combined with @math for further variance reduction.
@cite_4 @cite_3 @cite_19 @cite_2 @cite_5
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Eligibility traces have been shown to speed reinforcement learning, to make it more robust to hidden states, and to provide a link between Monte Carlo and temporal-difference methods. Here we generalize eligibility traces to off-policy learning, in which one learns about a policy different from the policy that generates the data. Off-policy methods can greatly multiply learning, as many policies can be learned about from the same data stream, and have been identified as particularly useful for learning about subgoals and temporally extended macro-actions. In this paper we consider the off-policy version of the policy evaluation problem, for which only one eligibility trace algorithm is known, a Monte Carlo method. We analyze and compare this and four new eligibility trace algorithms, emphasizing their relationships to the classical statistical technique known as importance sampling. Our main results are 1) to establish the consistency and bias properties of the new methods and 2) to empirically rank the new methods, showing improvement over one-step and Monte Carlo methods. Our results are restricted to model-free, table-lookup methods and to offline updating (at the end of each episode) although several of the algorithms could be applied more generally. We study the problem of off-policy value evaluation in reinforcement learning (RL), where one aims to estimate the value of a new policy based on data collected by a different policy. This problem is often a critical step when applying RL to real-world problems. Despite its importance, existing general methods either have uncontrolled bias or suffer high variance. In this work, we extend the doubly robust estimator for bandits to sequential decision-making problems, which gets the best of both worlds: it is guaranteed to be unbiased and can have a much lower variance than the popular importance sampling estimators. We demonstrate the estimator's accuracy in several benchmark problems, and illustrate its use as a subroutine in safe policy improvement. We also provide theoretical results on the inherent hardness of the problem, and show that our estimator can match the lower bound in certain scenarios. This work shows how to leverage causal inference to understand the behavior of complex learning systems interacting with their environment and predict the consequences of changes to the system. Such predictions allow both humans and algorithms to select the changes that would have improved the system performance. This work is illustrated by experiments on the ad placement system associated with the Bing search engine. In this paper we present a new way of predicting the performance of a reinforcement learning policy given historical data that may have been generated by a different policy. The ability to evaluate a policy from historical data is important for applications where the deployment of a bad policy can be dangerous or costly. We show empirically that our algorithm produces estimates that often have orders of magnitude lower mean squared error than existing methods--it makes more efficient use of the available data. Our new estimator is based on two advances: an extension of the doubly robust estimator (Jiang & Li, 2015), and a new way to mix between model based and importance sampling based estimates. This paper identifies a severe problem of the counterfactual risk estimator typically used in batch learning from logged bandit feedback (BLBF), and proposes the use of an alternative estimator that avoids this problem. In the BLBF setting, the learner does not receive full-information feedback like in supervised learning, but observes feedback only for the actions taken by a historical policy. This makes BLBF algorithms particularly attractive for training online systems (e.g., ad placement, web search, recommendation) using their historical logs. The Counterfactual Risk Minimization (CRM) principle [1] offers a general recipe for designing BLBF algorithms. It requires a counterfactual risk estimator, and virtually all existing works on BLBF have focused on a particular unbiased estimator. We show that this conventional estimator suffers from a propensity overfitting problem when used for learning over complex hypothesis spaces. We propose to replace the risk estimator with a self-normalized estimator, showing that it neatly avoids this problem. This naturally gives rise to a new learning algorithm - Normalized Policy Optimizer for Exponential Models (Norm-POEM) - for structured output prediction using linear rules. We evaluate the empirical effectiveness of Norm-POEM on several multi-label classification problems, finding that it consistently outperforms the conventional estimator.