The acceptance of autonomous vehicles is dependent on the rigorous assessment of their safety. Furthermore, the commercial viability of AV programs depends on the ability to estimate the time and resources required to achieve desired safety levels. Naive approaches to estimating the reliability and safety levels of autonomous vehicles under development are will require infeasible amounts of testing of a static vehicle configuration. To permit both the estimation of current safety, and make predictions about the reliability of future systems, I propose the use of a standard tool for modelling the reliability of evolving software systems, software reliability growth models (SRGMs). Publicly available data from Californian public-road testing of two autonomous vehicle systems is modelled using two of the best-known SRGMs. The ability of the models to accurately estimate current reliability, as well as for current testing data to predict reliability in the future after additional testing, is evaluated. One of the models, the Musa-Okumoto model, appears to be a good estimator and a reasonable predictor.
@cite_4 examined accident data for the Waymo program through to 2017, and found a simple linear relationship between kilometres travelled and cumulative accidents. They therefore concluded, While accidents are an important metric, it does not follow that there have been no improvements in the function of AV systems. Their analysis does does not take into account that manual intervention by the human safety drivers is likely to have prevented a significant number of accidents, and those disengagements, as shown in this work, have become much rarer over time. Furthermore, it does not take into account the contribution to accidents of human drivers that an AV could not reasonably be expected to avoid. Favaro al also examined the circumstances of disengagement events in some detail.
@cite_4
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Autonomous Vehicle technology is quickly expanding its market and has found in Silicon Valley, California, a strong foothold for preliminary testing on public roads. In an effort to promote safety and transparency to consumers, the California Department of Motor Vehicles has mandated that reports of accidents involving autonomous vehicles be drafted and made available to the public. The present work shows an in-depth analysis of the accident reports filed by different manufacturers that are testing autonomous vehicles in California (testing data from September 2014 to March 2017). The data provides important information on autonomous vehicles accidents’ dynamics, related to the most frequent types of collisions and impacts, accident frequencies, and other contributing factors. The study also explores important implications related to future testing and validation of semi-autonomous vehicles, tracing the investigation back to current literature as well as to the current regulatory panorama.