Smartphones and other mobile devices are today pervasive across the globe. As an interesting side effect of the surge in mobile communications, mobile network operators can now easily collect a wealth of high-resolution data on the habits of large user populations. The information extracted from mobile network traffic data is very relevant in the context of population mapping: it provides a tool for the automatic and live estimation of population densities, overcoming the limitations of traditional data sources such as censuses and surveys. In this paper, we propose a new approach to infer population densities at urban scales, based on aggregated mobile network traffic metadata. Our approach allows estimating both static and dynamic populations, achieves a significant improvement in terms of accuracy with respect to state-of-the-art solutions in the literature, and is validated on different city scenarios.
Citywide population estimation from mobile traffic data has been addressed by a limited number of works in the literature. @cite_8 , LandScan , a tool for ambient population estimation was employed to explore the relationship between the voice call activity and the underlying inhabitant density, at a 1-km @math resolution. The authors found a weak correlation of 0.24, which improved to 0.45 by limiting the analysis to selected time intervals rather than considering the daily communication volume. @cite_14 , telecommunications data is mixed with a number of other sources, including information on Corine land use, OpenStreetMap infrastructure, satellite nightlights, and slope. This plethora of data is processed through a dasymetric modeling approach, resulting in high 0.92 correlation with census information. However, the correlation is a nationwide average, and the authors indicate that the accuracy is lower for the most densely populated areas, i.e., large cities. Indeed, in such areas, a normalized error of around 0.6 is measured in @cite_14 , whereas we obtain values below 0.06.
@cite_14 @cite_8
2055992762 2007443624
During the past few decades, technologies such as remote sensing, geographical information systems, and global positioning systems have transformed the way the distribution of human population is studied and modeled in space and time. However, the mapping of populations remains constrained by the logistics of censuses and surveys. Consequently, spatially detailed changes across scales of days, weeks, or months, or even year to year, are difficult to assess and limit the application of human population maps in situations in which timely information is required, such as disasters, conflicts, or epidemics. Mobile phones (MPs) now have an extremely high penetration rate across the globe, and analyzing the spatiotemporal distribution of MP calls geolocated to the tower level may overcome many limitations of census-based approaches, provided that the use of MP data is properly assessed and calibrated. Using datasets of more than 1 billion MP call records from Portugal and France, we show how spatially and temporarily explicit estimations of population densities can be produced at national scales, and how these estimates compare with outputs produced using alternative human population mapping methods. We also demonstrate how maps of human population changes can be produced over multiple timescales while preserving the anonymity of MP users. With similar data being collected every day by MP network providers across the world, the prospect of being able to map contemporary and changing human population distributions over relatively short intervals exists, paving the way for new applications and a near real-time understanding of patterns and processes in human geography. Today, large-volume mobile phone call datasets are widely applied to investigate the spatio-temporal characteristics of human urban activity. This paper discusses several fundamental issues in estimating population distributions based on mobile call data. By adopting an individual-based call activity dataset that consists of nearly two million mobile subscribers who made over one hundred million communications over seven consecutive days, we explore the relationships among the Erlang values, the number of calls, and the number of active mobile subscribers. Then, the LandScan population density dataset is introduced to evaluate the process of estimating the population. The empirical findings indicate that: (1) Temporal variation exists in the relation between the Erlang values and the number of calls; (2) The number of calls is linearly proportional to the number of active mobile subscribers; (3) The proportion between the mobile subscribers and the actual total population varies in different areas, thus failing to represent the underlying population. Hence, the call activity reflects "activity intensity" rather than population distribution. The Erlang is a defective indicator of population distribution, whereas the number of calls serves as a better measure. This research provides an explicit clarification with respect to using call activity data for estimating population distribution.