Trends in terrestrial temperature variability are perhaps more relevant for species viability than trends in mean temperature. In this paper, we develop methodology for estimating such trends using multi-resolution climate data from polar orbiting weather satellites. We derive two novel algorithms for computation that are tailored for dense, gridded observations over both space and time. We evaluate our methods with a simulation that mimics these data's features and on a large, publicly available, global temperature dataset with the eventual goal of tracking trends in cloud reflectance temperature variability.
More recently, nonparametric models for both spatial and temporal data have focused on using @math -regularization for trend estimation. proposed @math -trend filtering for univariate time series, which forms the basis of our methods. These methods have been generalized to higher order temporal smoothness @cite_5 , graph dependencies @cite_14 , and, most recently, small, time-varying graphs @cite_7 .
@cite_5 @cite_14 @cite_7
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We study trend filtering, a recently proposed tool of [SIAM Rev. 51 (2009) 339-360] for nonparametric regression. The trend filtering estimate is defined as the minimizer of a penalized least squares criterion, in which the penalty term sums the absolute @math th order discrete derivatives over the input points. Perhaps not surprisingly, trend filtering estimates appear to have the structure of @math th degree spline functions, with adaptively chosen knot points (we say appear'' here as trend filtering estimates are not really functions over continuous domains, and are only defined over the discrete set of inputs). This brings to mind comparisons to other nonparametric regression tools that also produce adaptive splines; in particular, we compare trend filtering to smoothing splines, which penalize the sum of squared derivatives across input points, and to locally adaptive regression splines [Ann. Statist. 25 (1997) 387-413], which penalize the total variation of the @math th derivative. Empirically, we discover that trend filtering estimates adapt to the local level of smoothness much better than smoothing splines, and further, they exhibit a remarkable similarity to locally adaptive regression splines. We also provide theoretical support for these empirical findings; most notably, we prove that (with the right choice of tuning parameter) the trend filtering estimate converges to the true underlying function at the minimax rate for functions whose @math th derivative is of bounded variation. This is done via an asymptotic pairing of trend filtering and locally adaptive regression splines, which have already been shown to converge at the minimax rate [Ann. Statist. 25 (1997) 387-413]. At the core of this argument is a new result tying together the fitted values of two lasso problems that share the same outcome vector, but have different predictor matrices. We introduce a family of adaptive estimators on graphs, based on penalizing the l1 norm of discrete graph differences. This generalizes the idea of trend filtering (, 2009; Tibshirani, 2014), used for univariate nonparametric regression, to graphs. Analogous to the univariate case, graph trend filtering exhibits a level of local adaptivity unmatched by the usual l2-based graph smoothers. It is also defined by a convex minimization problem that is readily solved (e.g., by fast ADMM or Newton algorithms). We demonstrate the merits of graph trend filtering through both examples and theory. Many important problems can be modeled as a system of interconnected entities, where each entity is recording time-dependent observations or measurements. In order to spot trends, detect anomalies, and interpret the temporal dynamics of such data, it is essential to understand the relationships between the different entities and how these relationships evolve over time. In this paper, we introduce the time-varying graphical lasso (TVGL), a method of inferring time-varying networks from raw time series data. We cast the problem in terms of estimating a sparse time-varying inverse covariance matrix, which reveals a dynamic network of interdependencies between the entities. Since dynamic network inference is a computationally expensive task, we derive a scalable message-passing algorithm based on the Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) to solve this problem in an efficient way. We also discuss several extensions, including a streaming algorithm to update the model and incorporate new observations in real time. Finally, we evaluate our TVGL algorithm on both real and synthetic datasets, obtaining interpretable results and outperforming state-of-the-art baselines in terms of both accuracy and scalability.