We propose a neural network approach to price EU call options that significantly outperforms some existing pricing models and comes with guarantees that its predictions are economically reasonable. To achieve this, we introduce a class of gated neural networks that automatically learn to divide-and-conquer the problem space for robust and accurate pricing. We then derive instantiations of these networks that are 'rational by design' in terms of naturally encoding a valid call option surface that enforces no arbitrage principles. This integration of human insight within data-driven learning provides significantly better generalisation in pricing performance due to the encoded inductive bias in the learning, guarantees sanity in the model's predictions, and provides econometrically useful byproduct such as risk neutral density.
Asset pricing is a very active research area in finance and mathematical finance. The oldest and most famous model for option pricing is Black--Scholes @cite_3 . The biggest criticism of this model is its incompatibility with the behaviour in real markets due to its constant volatility assumption. The volatility smile exists due to the fact that real-world distributions are often fat-tailed and asymmetric. Stochastic volatility models, (e.g. @cite_17 ), aim to model the above smile behaviour through allowing randomness of volatility, compensated for by introducing random volatility process @cite_17 . Another stream of research suggests including jumps which represent rare events in the underlying process to alleviate the smile problem. These models are called Levy models @cite_19 @cite_4 @cite_24 @cite_15 @cite_23 and are able to generate volatility skew or smile. A comprehensive theoretical explanation of asset pricing models can be found in @cite_20 . This paper tackles the skew smile problem in a more data-driven way: it learns from market prices so that a model that fits the market prices well is expected to carry the same smile structure.
@cite_4 @cite_3 @cite_24 @cite_19 @cite_23 @cite_15 @cite_20 @cite_17
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Brownian motion and normal distribution have been widely used in the Black--Scholes option-pricing framework to model the return of assets. However, two puzzles emerge from many empirical investigations: the leptokurtic feature that the return distribution of assets may have a higher peak and two (asymmetric) heavier tails than those of the normal distribution, and an empirical phenomenon called "volatility smile" in option markets. To incorporate both of them and to strike a balance between reality and tractability, this paper proposes, for the purpose of option pricing, a double exponential jump-diffusion model. In particular, the model is simple enough to produce analytical solutions for a variety of option-pricing problems, including call and put options, interest rate derivatives, and path-dependent options. Equilibrium analysis and a psychological interpretation of the model are also presented. If options are correctly priced in the market, it should not be possible to make sure profits by creating portfolios of long and short positions in options and their underlying stocks. Using this principle, a theoretical valuation formula for options is derived. Since almost all corporate liabilities can be viewed as combinations of options, the formula and the analysis that led to it are also applicable to corporate liabilities such as common stock, corporate bonds, and warrants. In particular, the formula can be used to derive the discount that should be applied to a corporate bond because of the possibility of default. The validity of the classic Black-Scholes option pricing formula depends on the capability of investors to follow a dynamic portfolio strategy in the stock that replicates the payoff structure to the option. The critical assumption required for such a strategy to be feasible, is that the underlying stock return dynamics can be described by a stochastic process with a continuous sample path. In this paper, an option pricing formula is derived for the more-general case when the underlying stock returns are generated by a mixture of both continuous and jump processes. The derived formula has most of the attractive features of the original Black-Scholes formula in that it does not depend on investor preferences or knowledge of the expected return on the underlying stock. Moreover, the same analysis applied to the options can be extended to the pricing of corporate liabilities. We investigate the importance of diffusion and jumps in a new model for asset returns. In contrast to standard models, we allow for jump components displaying finite or infinite activity and variation. Empirical investigations of time series indicate that index dynamics are devoid of a diffusion component, which may be present in the dynamics of individual stocks. This leads to the conjecture, confirmed on options data, that the risk-neutral process should be free of a diffusion component. We conclude that the statistical and risk-neutral processes for equity prices are pure jump processes of infinite activity and finite variation. The normal inverse Gaussian distribution is defined as a variance-mean mixture of a normal distribution with the inverse Gaussian as the mixing distribution. The distribution determines an homogeneous Levy process, and this process is representable through subordination of Brownian motion by the inverse Gaussian process. The canonical, Levy type, decomposition of the process is determined. As a preparation for developments in the latter part of the paper the connection of the normal inverse Gaussian distribution to the classes of generalized hyperbolic and inverse Gaussian distributions is briefly reviewed. Then a discussion is begun of the potential of the normal inverse Gaussian distribution and Levy process for modelling and analysing statistical data, with particular reference to extensive sets of observations from turbulence and from finance. These areas of application imply a need for extending the inverse Gaussian Levy process so as to accommodate certain, frequently observed, temporal dependence structures. Some extensions, of the stochastic volatility type, are constructed via an observation-driven approach to state space modelling. At the end of the paper generalizations to multivariate settings are indicated. I use a new technique to derive a closed-form solution for the price of a European call option on an asset with stochastic volatility. The model allows arbitrary correlation between volatility and spot-asset returns. I introduce stochastic interest rates and show how to apply the model to bond options and foreign currency options. Simulations show that correlation between volatility and the spot asset's price is important for explaining return skewness and strike-price biases in the Black-Scholes (1973) model. The solution technique is based on characteristic functions and can be applied to other problems. Article published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Financial Studies in its journal, The Review of Financial Studies.