Future prediction is a fundamental principle of intelligence that helps plan actions and avoid possible dangers. As the future is uncertain to a large extent, modeling the uncertainty and multimodality of the future states is of great relevance. Existing approaches are rather limited in this regard and mostly yield a single hypothesis of the future or, at the best, strongly constrained mixture components that suffer from instabilities in training and mode collapse. In this work, we present an approach that involves the prediction of several samples of the future with a winner-takes-all loss and iterative grouping of samples to multiple modes. Moreover, we discuss how to evaluate predicted multimodal distributions, including the common real scenario, where only a single sample from the ground-truth distribution is available for evaluation. We show on synthetic and real data that the proposed approach triggers good estimates of multimodal distributions and avoids mode collapse.
Some of the above techniques were used for future prediction. @cite_15 learned the number of possible actions of objects and humans and the possible outcomes with an encoder-decoder architecture. Prediction of a distribution of future states was approached also with conditional variational autoencoders (cVAE). @cite_46 exploited cVAEs for estimating multiple optical flows to be used in future frame synthesis. @cite_42 built on cVAEs to predict multiple long-term futures of interacting agents. @cite_39 proposed a 3D cVAE for motion encoding. @cite_35 integrated dropout-based Bayesian inference into cVAE.
@cite_35 @cite_15 @cite_42 @cite_39 @cite_46
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For autonomous agents to successfully operate in the real world, the ability to anticipate future scene states is a key competence. In real-world scenarios, future states become increasingly uncertain and multi-modal, particularly on long time horizons. Dropout based Bayesian inference provides a computationally tractable, theoretically well grounded approach to learn likely hypotheses models to deal with uncertain futures and make predictions that correspond well to observations -- are well calibrated. However, it turns out that such approaches fall short to capture complex real-world scenes, even falling behind in accuracy when compared to the plain deterministic approaches. This is because the used log-likelihood estimate discourages diversity. In this work, we propose a novel Bayesian formulation for anticipating future scene states which leverages synthetic likelihoods that encourage the learning of diverse models to accurately capture the multi-modal nature of future scene states. We show that our approach achieves accurate state-of-the-art predictions and calibrated probabilities through extensive experiments for scene anticipation on Cityscapes dataset. Moreover, we show that our approach generalizes across diverse tasks such as digit generation and precipitation forecasting. Anticipating actions and objects before they start or appear is a difficult problem in computer vision with several real-world applications. This task is challenging partly because it requires leveraging extensive knowledge of the world that is difficult to write down. We believe that a promising resource for efficiently learning this knowledge is through readily available unlabeled video. We present a framework that capitalizes on temporal structure in unlabeled video to learn to anticipate human actions and objects. The key idea behind our approach is that we can train deep networks to predict the visual representation of images in the future. Visual representations are a promising prediction target because they encode images at a higher semantic level than pixels yet are automatic to compute. We then apply recognition algorithms on our predicted representation to anticipate objects and actions. We experimentally validate this idea on two datasets, anticipating actions one second in the future and objects five seconds in the future. We introduce a Deep Stochastic IOC RNN Encoder-decoder framework, DESIRE, for the task of future predictions of multiple interacting agents in dynamic scenes. DESIRE effectively predicts future locations of objects in multiple scenes by 1) accounting for the multi-modal nature of the future prediction (i.e., given the same context, future may vary), 2) foreseeing the potential future outcomes and make a strategic prediction based on that, and 3) reasoning not only from the past motion history, but also from the scene context as well as the interactions among the agents. DESIRE achieves these in a single end-to-end trainable neural network model, while being computationally efficient. The model first obtains a diverse set of hypothetical future prediction samples employing a conditional variational auto-encoder, which are ranked and refined by the following RNN scoring-regression module. Samples are scored by accounting for accumulated future rewards, which enables better long-term strategic decisions similar to IOC frameworks. An RNN scene context fusion module jointly captures past motion histories, the semantic scene context and interactions among multiple agents. A feedback mechanism iterates over the ranking and refinement to further boost the prediction accuracy. We evaluate our model on two publicly available datasets: KITTI and Stanford Drone Dataset. Our experiments show that the proposed model significantly improves the prediction accuracy compared to other baseline methods. Existing video prediction methods mainly rely on observing multiple historical frames or focus on predicting the next one-frame. In this work, we study the problem of generating consecutive multiple future frames by observing one single still image only. We formulate the multi-frame prediction task as a multiple time step flow (multi-flow) prediction phase followed by a flow-to-frame synthesis phase. The multi-flow prediction is modeled in a variational probabilistic manner with spatial-temporal relationships learned through 3D convolutions. The flow-to-frame synthesis is modeled as a generative process in order to keep the predicted results lying closer to the manifold shape of real video sequence. Such a two-phase design prevents the model from directly looking at the high-dimensional pixel space of the frame sequence and is demonstrated to be more effective in predicting better and diverse results. Extensive experimental results on videos with different types of motion show that the proposed algorithm performs favorably against existing methods in terms of quality, diversity and human perceptual evaluation. We study the problem of synthesizing a number of likely future frames from a single input image. In contrast to traditional methods, which have tackled this problem in a deterministic or non-parametric way, we propose to model future frames in a probabilistic manner. Our probabilistic model makes it possible for us to sample and synthesize many possible future frames from a single input image. To synthesize realistic movement of objects, we propose a novel network structure, namely a Cross Convolutional Network; this network encodes image and motion information as feature maps and convolutional kernels, respectively. In experiments, our model performs well on synthetic data, such as 2D shapes and animated game sprites, as well as on real-world video frames. We also show that our model can be applied to visual analogy-making, and present an analysis of the learned network representations.