A rising topic in computational journalism is how to enhance the diversity in news served to subscribers to foster exploration behavior in news reading. Despite the success of preference learning in personalized news recommendation, their over-exploitation causes filter bubble that isolates readers from opposing viewpoints and hurts long-term user experiences with lack of serendipity. Since news providers can recommend neither opposite nor diversified opinions if unpopularity of these articles is surely predicted, they can only bet on the articles whose forecasts of click-through rate involve high variability (risks) or high estimation errors (uncertainties). We propose a novel Bayesian model of uncertainty-aware scoring and ranking for news articles. The Bayesian binary classifier models probability of success (defined as a news click) as a Beta-distributed random variable conditional on a vector of the context (user features, article features, and other contextual features). The posterior of the contextual coefficients can be computed efficiently using a low-rank version of Laplace's method via thin Singular Value Decomposition. Efficiencies in personalized targeting of exceptional articles, which are chosen by each subscriber in test period, are evaluated on real-world news datasets. The proposed estimator slightly outperformed existing training and scoring algorithms, in terms of efficiency in identifying successful outliers.
Beta-binomial-logit models have been used for robust classification whereas their over-dispersion has been supplied by not a regression formula but by a scholar hyperparameter (e.g., @cite_31 ). Contextual-risk models have been used in regression tasks such as Gaussian Process (GP) regression with input-dependent variances @cite_6 , while have been uncommon in classification tasks. Our derivation of the custom Laplace approximation and marginal likelihood are based on the techniques in GP classification @cite_38 , for which Expectation Propagation (EP; @cite_16 ) is also applicable whereas we avoided too complicated formulas of EP. Nonparametric conditional density estimation (e.g., @cite_23 @cite_7 ) naturally introduces input-dependent noises while simpler forms are preferable in our task. @math -logistic regression @cite_34 is another robust classifier and Bayesian estimation of robust classifiers produces robust credible intervals (e.g., @cite_36 ), while their risks do not depend on inputs. Overall, to the best of our knowledge, we provide the most parsimonious Bayesian classifier that suits recommendation of outlying items based on input-dependent variabilities and uncertainties.
@cite_38 @cite_7 @cite_36 @cite_6 @cite_34 @cite_23 @cite_31 @cite_16
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Summary In this paper we propose, survey and compare some classes of probability densities that may be used to represent partial prior information, to model either prior ignorance or Bayesian sensitivity analysis. We distinguish two types of models appropriate for two different situations: near ignorance models which are suitable in problems where there is little prior information, and neighbourhood models, which can be used to 'robustify' a strict Bayesian analysis in problems where there is substantial prior information about location. We argue that, especially for the first situation, a reasonable class of prior densities is not the same as a class of reasonable prior densities. We discuss various desiderata for a 'reasonable' class, including coherence and sensible dependence of inferences on sample size. The translation invariant models studied here are classes of conjugate priors, classes of double exponential densities and a neighbourhood of the uniform prior. Of the neighbourhood models we examine examples of E-contamination neighbourhoods (previously studied by Huber, Berger and Berliner) and intervals of measures (DeRobertis and Hartigan). We illustrate the models in the simple problem of constructing credible intervals for an unknown normal mean. Of the models studied in detail, a translation-invariant class of double exponential priors is favoured for modelling little prior information, and a type of interval of measures seems most suitable for robust Bayesian analysis. Gaussian processes provide natural non-parametric prior distributions over regression functions. In this paper we consider regression problems where there is noise on the output, and the variance of the noise depends on the inputs. If we assume that the noise is a smooth function of the inputs, then it is natural to model the noise variance using a second Gaussian process, in addition to the Gaussian process governing the noise-free output value. We show that prior uncertainty about the parameters controlling both processes can be handled and that the posterior distribution of the noise rate can be sampled from using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Our results on a synthetic data set give a posterior noise variance that well-approximates the true variance. We introduce a new nonlinear model for classification, in which we model the joint distribution of response variable, y, and covariates, x, non-parametrically using Dirichlet process mixtures. We keep the relationship between y and x linear within each component of the mixture. The overall relationship becomes nonlinear if the mixture contains more than one component, with different regression coefficients. We use simulated data to compare the performance of this new approach to alternative methods such as multinomial logit (MNL) models, decision trees, and support vector machines. We also evaluate our approach on two classification problems: identifying the folding class of protein sequences and detecting Parkinson's disease. Our model can sometimes improve predictive accuracy. Moreover, by grouping observations into sub-populations (i.e., mixture components), our model can sometimes provide insight into hidden structure in the data. A Beta-Binomial-Logit model is a Beta-Binomial model with covariate information incorporated via a logistic regression. Posterior propriety of a Bayesian Beta-Binomial-Logit model can be data-dependent for improper hyper-prior distributions. Various researchers in the literature have unknowingly used improper posterior distributions or have given incorrect statements about posterior propriety because checking posterior propriety can be challenging due to the complicated functional form of a Beta-Binomial-Logit model. We derive data-dependent necessary and sufficient conditions for posterior propriety within a class of hyper-prior distributions that encompass those used in previous studies. This paper presents a new deterministic approximation technique in Bayesian networks. This method, "Expectation Propagation," unifies two previous techniques: assumed-density filtering, an extension of the Kalman filter, and loopy belief propagation, an extension of belief propagation in Bayesian networks. Loopy belief propagation, because it propagates exact belief states, is useful for a limited class of belief networks, such as those which are purely discrete. Expectation Propagation approximates the belief states by only retaining expectations, such as mean and varitmce, and iterates until these expectations are consistent throughout the network. This makes it applicable to hybrid networks with discrete and continuous nodes. Experiments with Gaussian mixture models show Expectation Propagation to be donvincingly better than methods with similar computational cost: Laplace's method, variational Bayes, and Monte Carlo. Expectation Propagation also provides an efficient algorithm for training Bayes point machine classifiers.