In this work, we tackle the problem of predicting entity popularity on Twitter based on the news cycle. We apply a supervised learn- ing approach and extract four types of features: (i) signal, (ii) textual, (iii) sentiment and (iv) semantic, which we use to predict whether the popularity of a given entity will be high or low in the following hours. We run several experiments on six different entities in a dataset of over 150M tweets and 5M news and obtained F1 scores over 0.70. Error analysis indicates that news perform better on predicting entity popularity on Twitter when they are the primary information source of the event, in opposition to events such as live TV broadcasts, political debates or football matches.
Research work more in line with ours, tries to predict the popularity of news articles shares (url sharing) on Twitter based on content features @cite_7 . Authors considered the news source, the article's category, the article's author, the subjectivity of the language in the article, and number of named entities in the article as features. Recently, there was a large study of the life cycle of news articles in terms of distribution of visits, tweets and shares over time across different sections of the publisher @cite_8 . Their work was able to improve, for some content type, the prediction of web visits using data from social media after ten to twenty minutes of publication.
@cite_7 @cite_8
2097343308 1995358441
News articles are extremely time sensitive by nature. There is also intense competition among news items to propagate as widely as possible. Hence, the task of predicting the popularity of news items on the social web is both interesting and challenging. Prior research has dealt with predicting eventual online popularity based on early popularity. It is most desirable, however, to predict the popularity of items prior to their release, fostering the possibility of appropriate decision making to modify an article and the manner of its publication. In this paper, we construct a multi-dimensional feature space derived from properties of an article and evaluate the efficacy of these features to serve as predictors of online popularity. We examine both regression and classification algorithms and demonstrate that despite randomness in human behavior, it is possible to predict ranges of popularity on twitter with an overall 84 accuracy. Our study also serves to illustrate the differences between traditionally prominent sources and those immensely popular on the social web. This paper presents a study of the life cycle of news articles posted online. We describe the interplay between website visitation patterns and social media reactions to news content. We show that we can use this hybrid observation method to characterize distinct classes of articles. We also find that social media reactions can help predict future visitation patterns early and accurately. We validate our methods using qualitative analysis as well as quantitative analysis on data from a large international news network, for a set of articles generating more than 3,000,000 visits and 200,000 social media reactions. We show that it is possible to model accurately the overall traffic articles will ultimately receive by observing the first ten to twenty minutes of social media reactions. Achieving the same prediction accuracy with visits alone would require to wait for three hours of data. We also describe significant improvements on the accuracy of the early prediction of shelf-life for news stories.