We propose a novel ranking model that combines the Bradley-Terry-Luce probability model with a nonnegative matrix factorization framework to model and uncover the presence of latent variables that influence the performance of top tennis players. We derive an efficient, provably convergent, and numerically stable majorization-minimization-based algorithm to maximize the likelihood of datasets under the proposed statistical model. The model is tested on datasets involving the outcomes of matches between 20 top male and female tennis players over 14 major tournaments for men (including the Grand Slams and the ATP Masters 1000) and 16 major tournaments for women over the past 10 years. Our model automatically infers that the surface of the court (e.g., clay or hard court) is a key determinant of the performances of male players, but less so for females. Top players on various surfaces over this longitudinal period are also identified in an objective manner.
The paper most closely related to the present one is @cite_5 in which a topic modelling approach was used for ranking. However, unlike our work in which continuous-valued skill levels in @math are inferred, permutations (i.e., discrete objects) and their corresponding mixture weights were learned. We opine that our model and results provide a more nuanced and quantitative view of the relative skill levels between players under different latent conditions.
@cite_5
2963284053
We propose a topic modeling approach to the prediction of preferences in pairwise comparisons. We develop a new generative model for pairwise comparisons that accounts for multiple shared latent rankings that are prevalent in a population of users. This new model also captures inconsistent user behavior in a natural way. We show how the estimation of latent rankings in the new generative model can be formally reduced to the estimation of topics in a statistically equivalent topic modeling problem. We leverage recent advances in the topic modeling literature to develop an algorithm that can learn shared latent rankings with provable consistency as well as sample and computational complexity guarantees. We demonstrate that the new approach is empirically competitive with the current state-of-the-art approaches in predicting preferences on some semi-synthetic and real world datasets.