Destination prediction is an essential task in a variety of mobile applications. In this paper, we optimize the matrix operation and adapt a semi-lazy framework to improve the prediction accuracy and efficiency of a state-of-the-art approach. To this end, we employ efficient dynamic-programming by devising several data constructs including Efficient Transition Probability and Transition Probabilities with Detours that are capable of pinpointing the minimum amount of computation. We prove that our method achieves one order of cut in both time and space complexity. The experimental results on real-world and synthetic datasets have shown that our solution consistently outperforms its state-of-the-art counterparts in terms of both efficiency (approximately over 100 times faster) and accuracy (above 30 increase).
A majority of the aforementioned research focuses on one or several geo locations that matter most, either the current position or some statistically significant places, and then perceive them as several discrete states of a Markov model or a HMM @cite_10 @cite_17 @cite_4 @cite_22 @cite_7 @cite_19 .
@cite_4 @cite_22 @cite_7 @cite_19 @cite_10 @cite_17
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We describe a method called Predestination that uses a history of a driver's destinations, along with data about driving behaviors, to predict where a driver is going as a trip progresses. Driving behaviors include types of destinations, driving efficiency, and trip times. Beyond considering previously visited destinations, Predestination leverages an open-world modeling methodology that considers the likelihood of users visiting previously unobserved locations based on trends in the data and on the background properties of locations. This allows our algorithm to smoothly transition between “out of the box” with no training data to more fully trained with increasing numbers of observations. Multiple components of the analysis are fused via Bayesian inference to produce a probabilistic map of destinations. Our algorithm was trained and tested on hold-out data drawn from a database of GPS driving data gathered from 169 different subjects who drove 7,335 different trips. The analysis of human location histories is currently getting an increasing attention, due to the widespread usage of geopositioning technologies such as the GPS, and also of online location-based services that allow users to share this information. Tasks such as the prediction of human movement can be addressed through the usage of these data, in turn offering support for more advanced applications, such as adaptive mobile services with proactive context-based functions. This paper presents an hybrid method for predicting human mobility on the basis of Hidden Markov Models (HMMs). The proposed approach clusters location histories according to their characteristics, and latter trains an HMM for each cluster. The usage of HMMs allows us to account with location characteristics as unobservable parameters, and also to account with the effects of each individual's previous actions. We report on a series of experiments with a real-world location history dataset from the GeoLife project, showing that a prediction accuracy of 13.85 can be achieved when considering regions of roughly 1280 squared meters. Destination prediction is an essential task for many emerging location-based applications such as recommending sightseeing places and targeted advertising according to destinations. A common approach to destination prediction is to derive the probability of a location being the destination based on historical trajectories. However, almost all the existing techniques use various kinds of extra information such as road network, proprietary travel planner, statistics requested from government, and personal driving habits. Such extra information, in most circumstances, is unavailable or very costly to obtain. Thereby we approach the task of destination prediction by using only historical trajectory dataset. However, this approach encounters the "data sparsity problem", i.e., the available historical trajectories are far from enough to cover all possible query trajectories, which considerably limits the number of query trajectories that can obtain predicted destinations. We propose a novel method named Sub-Trajectory Synthesis (SubSyn) to address the data sparsity problem. SubSyn first decomposes historical trajectories into sub-trajectories comprising two adjacent locations, and then connects the sub-trajectories into "synthesised" trajectories. This process effectively expands the historical trajectory dataset to contain much more trajectories. Experiments based on real datasets show that SubSyn can predict destinations for up to ten times more query trajectories than a baseline prediction algorithm. Furthermore, the running time of the SubSyn-training algorithm is almost negligible for a large set of 1.9 million trajectories, and the SubSyn-prediction algorithm runs over two orders of magnitude faster than the baseline prediction algorithm constantly. Destination prediction is an essential task for many emerging location based applications such as recommending sightseeing places and targeted advertising based on destination. A common approach to destination prediction is to derive the probability of a location being the destination based on historical trajectories. However, existing techniques using this approach suffer from the “data sparsity problem”, i.e., the available historical trajectories is far from being able to cover all possible trajectories. This problem considerably limits the number of query trajectories that can obtain predicted destinations. We propose a novel method named Sub-Trajectory Synthesis (SubSyn) algorithm to address the data sparsity problem. SubSyn algorithm first decomposes historical trajectories into sub-trajectories comprising two neighbouring locations, and then connects the sub-trajectories into “synthesised” trajectories. The number of query trajectories that can have predicted destinations is exponentially increased by this means. Experiments based on real datasets show that SubSyn algorithm can predict destinations for up to ten times more query trajectories than a baseline algorithm while the SubSyn prediction algorithm runs over two orders of magnitude faster than the baseline algorithm. In this paper, we also consider the privacy protection issue in case an adversary uses SubSyn algorithm to derive sensitive location information of users. We propose an efficient algorithm to select a minimum number of locations a user has to hide on her trajectory in order to avoid privacy leak. Experiments also validate the high efficiency of the privacy protection algorithm. Human behavior is often complex and context-dependent. This paper presents a general technique to exploit this "multidimensional" contextual variable for human mobility prediction. We use an ensemble method, in which we extract different mobility patterns with multiple models and then combine these models under a probabilistic framework. The key idea lies in the assumption that human mobility can be explained by several mobility patterns that depend on a sub-set of the contextual variables and these can be learned by a simple model. We showed how this idea can be applied to two specific online prediction tasks: what is the next place a user will visit? and how long will he stay in the current place?. Using smartphone data collected from 153 users during 17 months, we show the potential of our method in predicting human mobility in real life. We investigate opportunistic routing, centering on the recommendation of ideal diversions on trips to a primary destination when an unplanned waypoint, such as a rest stop or a refueling station, is desired. In the general case, an automated routing assistant may not know the driver's final destination and may need to consider probabilities over destinations in identifying the ideal waypoint along with the revised route that includes the waypoint. We consider general principles of opportunistic routing and present the results of several studies with a corpus of real-world trips. Then, we describe how we can compute the expected value of asking a user about the primary destination so as to remove uncertainly about the goal and show how this measure can guide an automated system's engagements with users when making recommendations for navigation and analogous settings in ubiquitous computing.