Existing video prediction methods mainly rely on observing multiple historical frames or focus on predicting the next one-frame. In this work, we study the problem of generating consecutive multiple future frames by observing one single still image only. We formulate the multi-frame prediction task as a multiple time step flow (multi-flow) prediction phase followed by a flow-to-frame synthesis phase. The multi-flow prediction is modeled in a variational probabilistic manner with spatial-temporal relationships learned through 3D convolutions. The flow-to-frame synthesis is modeled as a generative process in order to keep the predicted results lying closer to the manifold shape of real video sequence. Such a two-phase design prevents the model from directly looking at the high-dimensional pixel space of the frame sequence and is demonstrated to be more effective in predicting better and diverse results. Extensive experimental results on videos with different types of motion show that the proposed algorithm performs favorably against existing methods in terms of quality, diversity and human perceptual evaluation.
In terms of modeling future uncertainties, two methods @cite_2 @cite_5 are closely related. However, Xue al @cite_2 only model the uncertainty in the next one-step prediction. If we iteratively run the one-step prediction model for multi-step predictions, the frame quality will degrade fast through error accumulations, due to the lack of temporal relationships modeling between frames. Though Walker al @cite_5 could keep forecasting over the course of one second, instead of predicting real future frames, it only predicts the dense trajectory of pixels. Also such a trajectory-supervised modeling requires laborious human labeling. Different from these methods, our approach integrates the multi-frame prediction and uncertainty modeling in one model.
@cite_5 @cite_2
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In a given scene, humans can often easily predict a set of immediate future events that might happen. However, generalized pixel-level anticipation in computer vision systems is difficult because machine learning struggles with the ambiguity inherent in predicting the future. In this paper, we focus on predicting the dense trajectory of pixels in a scene, specifically what will move in the scene, where it will travel, and how it will deform over the course of one second. We propose a conditional variational autoencoder as a solution to this problem. In this framework, direct inference from the image shapes the distribution of possible trajectories, while latent variables encode any necessary information that is not available in the image. We show that our method is able to successfully predict events in a wide variety of scenes and can produce multiple different predictions when the future is ambiguous. Our algorithm is trained on thousands of diverse, realistic videos and requires absolutely no human labeling. In addition to non-semantic action prediction, we find that our method learns a representation that is applicable to semantic vision tasks. We study the problem of synthesizing a number of likely future frames from a single input image. In contrast to traditional methods, which have tackled this problem in a deterministic or non-parametric way, we propose a novel approach that models future frames in a probabilistic manner. Our probabilistic model makes it possible for us to sample and synthesize many possible future frames from a single input image. Future frame synthesis is challenging, as it involves low- and high-level image and motion understanding. We propose a novel network structure, namely a Cross Convolutional Network to aid in synthesizing future frames; this network structure encodes image and motion information as feature maps and convolutional kernels, respectively. In experiments, our model performs well on synthetic data, such as 2D shapes and animated game sprites, as well as on real-wold videos. We also show that our model can be applied to tasks such as visual analogy-making, and present an analysis of the learned network representations.