We study the problem of analyzing influence of various factors affecting individual messages posted in social media. The problem is challenging because of various types of influences propagating through the social media network that act simultaneously on any user. Additionally, the topic composition of the influencing factors and the susceptibility of users to these influences evolve over time. This problem has not studied before, and off-the-shelf models are unsuitable for this purpose. To capture the complex interplay of these various factors, we propose a new non-parametric model called the Dynamic Multi-Relational Chinese Restaurant Process. This accounts for the user network for data generation and also allows the parameters to evolve over time. Designing inference algorithms for this model suited for large scale social-media data is another challenge. To this end, we propose a scalable and multi-threaded inference algorithm based on online Gibbs Sampling. Extensive evaluations on large-scale Twitter and Facebook data show that the extracted topics when applied to authorship and commenting prediction outperform state-of-the-art baselines. More importantly, our model produces valuable insights on topic trends and user personality trends, beyond the capability of existing approaches.
Temporal evolution has been addressed in the context of non-parametric models @cite_22 @cite_7 @cite_0 , where the parameters of the the corresponding static model become functions of time. Some of the approaches are amenable to scalable inference, while others are not. For the Dynamic MRelCRP, we use the dynamic evolution of the parameters proposed in the context of Recurrent CRF @cite_7 @cite_0 , because of the scalability of the associated inference problem. Note, however, that the similarity between the Recurrent CRF and the Dynamic-MRelCRP is only in the temporal evolution of model parameters. The static model is a HDP CRF, as compared to the RelCRP in our case.
@cite_0 @cite_22 @cite_7
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Historical user activity is key for building user profiles to predict the user behavior and affinities in many web applications such as targeting of online advertising, content personalization and social recommendations. User profiles are temporal, and changes in a user's activity patterns are particularly useful for improved prediction and recommendation. For instance, an increased interest in car-related web pages may well suggest that the user might be shopping for a new vehicle.In this paper we present a comprehensive statistical framework for user profiling based on topic models which is able to capture such effects in a fully fashion. Our method models topical interests of a user dynamically where both the user association with the topics and the topics themselves are allowed to vary over time, thus ensuring that the profiles remain current. We describe a streaming, distributed inference algorithm which is able to handle tens of millions of users. Our results show that our model contributes towards improved behavioral targeting of display advertising relative to baseline models that do not incorporate topical and or temporal dependencies. As a side-effect our model yields human-understandable results which can be used in an intuitive fashion by advertisers. Clustering is an important data mining task for exploration and visualization of different data types like news stories, scientific publications, weblogs, etc. Due to the evolving nature of these data, evolutionary clustering, also known as dynamic clustering, has recently emerged to cope with the challenges of mining temporally smooth clusters over time. A good evolutionary clustering algorithm should be able to fit the data well at each time epoch, and at the same time results in a smooth cluster evolution that provides the data analyst with a coherent and easily interpretable model. In this paper we introduce the temporal Dirichlet process mixture model (TDPM) as a framework for evolutionary clustering. TDPM is a generalization of the DPM framework for clustering that automatically grows the number of clusters with the data. In our framework, the data is divided into epochs; all data points inside the same epoch are assumed to be fully exchangeable, whereas the temporal order is maintained across epochs. Moreover, The number of clusters in each epoch is unbounded: the clusters can retain, die out or emerge over time, and the actual parameterization of each cluster can also evolve over time in a Markovian fashion. We give a detailed and intuitive construction of this framework using the recurrent Chinese restaurant process (RCRP) metaphor, as well as a Gibbs sampling algorithm to carry out posterior inference in order to determine the optimal cluster evolution. We demonstrate our model over simulated data by using it to build an infinite dynamic mixture of Gaussian factors, and over real dataset by using it to build a simple non-parametric dynamic clustering-topic model and apply it to analyze the NIPS12 document collection. Topic models have proven to be a useful tool for discovering latent structures in document collections. However, most document collections often come as temporal streams and thus several aspects of the latent structure such as the number of topics, the topics' distribution and popularity are time-evolving. Several models exist that model the evolution of some but not all of the above aspects. In this paper we introduce infinite dynamic topic models, iDTM, that can accommodate the evolution of all the aforementioned aspects. Our model assumes that documents are organized into epochs, where the documents within each epoch are exchangeable but the order between the documents is maintained across epochs. iDTM allows for unbounded number of topics: topics can die or be born at any epoch, and the representation of each topic can evolve according to a Markovian dynamics. We use iDTM to analyze the birth and evolution of topics in the NIPS community and evaluated the efficacy of our model on both simulated and real datasets with favorable outcome.