How to recognise whether an observed person walks or runs? We consider a dynamic environment where observations (e.g. the posture of a person) are caused by different dynamic processes (walking or running) which are active one at a time and which may transition from one to another at any time. For this setup, switching dynamic models have been suggested previously, mostly, for linear and nonlinear dynamics in discrete time. Motivated by basic principles of computations in the brain (dynamic, internal models) we suggest a model for switching nonlinear differential equations. The switching process in the model is implemented by a Hopfield network and we use parametric dynamic movement primitives to represent arbitrary rhythmic motions. The model generates observed dynamics by linearly interpolating the primitives weighted by the switching variables and it is constructed such that standard filtering algorithms can be applied. In two experiments with synthetic planar motion and a human motion capture data set we show that inference with the unscented Kalman filter can successfully discriminate several dynamic processes online.
Switching dynamic models are well-established in statistics @cite_15 @cite_9 , signal processing @cite_3 and machine learning @cite_4 @cite_2 @cite_21 . In contrast to these models, we define both, the dynamic models and the switching variables, using nonlinear dynamical systems with continuous states running in continuous time. This allows us to link our model more easily to computations implemented in analogue biological substrate such as the brain. Additionally, a formulation in continuous time allows us to easily perform time-rescaling of dynamical systems @cite_10 .
@cite_4 @cite_9 @cite_21 @cite_3 @cite_2 @cite_15 @cite_10
2102716594 2022023686 2140890425 2110575115 605692607 2123967136
We introduce a new statistical model for time series that iteratively segments data into regimes with approximately linear dynamics and learns the parameters of each of these linear regimes. This model combines and generalizes two of the most widely used stochastic time-series models— hidden Markov models and linear dynamical systems—and is closely related to models that are widely used in the control and econometrics literatures. It can also be derived by extending the mixture of experts neural network (Jacobs, Jordan, Nowlan, & Hinton, 1991) to its fully dynamical version, in which both expert and gating networks are recurrent. Inferring the posterior probabilities of the hidden states of this model is computationally intractable, and therefore the exact expectation maximization (EM) algorithm cannot be applied. However, we present a variational approximation that maximizes a lower bound on the log-likelihood and makes use of both the forward and backward recursions for hidden Markov models and the Kalman filter recursions for linear dynamical systems. We tested the algorithm on artificial data sets and a natural data set of respiration force from a patient with sleep apnea. The results suggest that variational approximations are a viable method for inference and learning in switching state-space models. In treating dynamic systems, sequential Monte Carlo methods use discrete samples to represent a complicated probability distribution and use rejection sampling, importance sampling and weighted resampling to complete the on-line ‘filtering’ task. We propose a special sequential Monte Carlo method, the mixture Kalman filter, which uses a random mixture of the Gaussian distributions to approximate a target distribution. It is designed for on-line estimation and prediction of conditional and partial conditional dynamic linear models, which are themselves a class of widely used non-linear systems and also serve to approximate many others. Compared with a few available filtering methods including Monte Carlo methods, the gain in efficiency that is provided by the mixture Kalman filter can be very substantial. Another contribution of the paper is the formulation of many non-linear systems into conditional or partial conditional linear form, to which the mixture Kalman filter can be applied. Examples in target tracking and digital communications are given to demonstrate the procedures proposed. Condition monitoring often involves the analysis of systems with hidden factors that switch between different modes of operation in some way. Given a sequence of observations, the task is to infer the filtering distribution of the switch setting at each time step. In this paper, we present factorial switching linear dynamical systems as a general framework for handling such problems. We show how domain knowledge and learning can be successfully combined in this framework, and introduce a new factor (the ldquoX-factorrdquo) for dealing with unmodeled variation. We demonstrate the flexibility of this type of model by applying it to the problem of monitoring the condition of a premature baby receiving intensive care. The state of health of a baby cannot be observed directly, but different underlying factors are associated with particular patterns of physiological measurements and artifacts. We have explicit knowledge of common factors and use the X-factor to model novel patterns which are clinically significant but have unknown cause. Experimental results are given which show the developed methods to be effective on typical intensive care unit monitoring data. WINNER OF THE 2007 DEGROOT PRIZE! @PARASPLIT The prominence of finite mixture modelling is greater than ever. Many important statistical topics like clustering data, outlier treatment, or dealing with unobserved heterogeneity involve finite mixture models in some way or other. The area of potential applications goes beyond simple data analysis and extends to regression analysis and to non-linear time series analysis using Markov switching models. @PARASPLIT For more than the hundred years since Karl Pearson showed in 1894 how to estimate the five parameters of a mixture of two normal distributions using the method of moments, statistical inference for finite mixture models has been a challenge to everybody who deals with them. In the past ten years, very powerful computational tools emerged for dealing with these models which combine a Bayesian approach with recent Monte simulation techniques based on Markov chains. This book reviews these techniques and covers the most recent advances in the field, among them bridge sampling techniques and reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. @PARASPLIT It is the first time that the Bayesian perspective of finite mixture modelling is systematically presented in book form. It is argued that the Bayesian approach provides much insight in this context and is easily implemented in practice. Although the main focus is on Bayesian inference, the author reviews several frequentist techniques, especially selecting the number of components of a finite mixture model, and discusses some of their shortcomings compared to the Bayesian approach. @PARASPLIT The aim of this book is to impart the finite mixture and Markov switching approach to statistical modelling to a wide-ranging community. This includes not only statisticians, but also biologists, economists, engineers, financial agents, market researcher, medical researchers or any other frequent user of statistical models. This book should help newcomers to the field to understand how finite mixture and Markov switching models are formulated, what structures they imply on the data, what they could be used for, and how they are estimated. Researchers familiar with the subject also will profit from reading this book. The presentation is rather informal without abandoning mathematical correctness. Previous notions of Bayesian inference and Monte Carlo simulation are useful but not needed. Many control problems take place in continuous state-action spaces, e.g., as in manipulator robotics, where the control objective is often defined as finding a desired trajectory that reaches a particular goal state. While reinforcement learning offers a theoretical framework to learn such control policies from scratch, its applicability to higher dimensional continuous state-action spaces remains rather limited to date. Instead of learning from scratch, in this paper we suggest to learn a desired complex control policy by transforming an existing simple canonical control policy. For this purpose, we represent canonical policies in terms of differential equations with well-defined attractor properties. By nonlinearly transforming the canonical attractor dynamics using techniques from nonparametric regression, almost arbitrary new nonlinear policies can be generated without losing the stability properties of the canonical system. We demonstrate our techniques in the context of learning a set of movement skills for a humanoid robot from demonstrations of a human teacher. Policies are acquired rapidly, and, due to the properties of well formulated differential equations, can be re-used and modified on-line under dynamic changes of the environment. The linear parameterization of nonparametric regression moreover lends itself to recognize and classify previously learned movement skills. Evaluations in simulations and on an actual 30 degree-of-freedom humanoid robot exemplify the feasibility and robustness of our approach.