Live video-streaming platforms such as Twitch enable top content creators to reap significant profits and influence. To that effect, various behavioral norms are recommended to new entrants and those seeking to increase their popularity and success. Chiefly among them are to simply put in the effort and promote on social media outlets such as Twitter, Instagram, and the like. But does following these behaviors indeed have a relationship with eventual popularity? In this paper, we collect a corpus of Twitch streamer popularity measures --- spanning social and financial measures --- and their behavior data on Twitch and third party platform. We also compile a set of community-defined behavioral norms. We then perform temporal analysis to identify the increased predictive value that a streamer's future behavior contributes to predicting future popularity. At the population level, we find that behavioral information improves the prediction of relative growth that exceeds the median streamer. At the individual level, we find that although it is difficult to quickly become successful in absolute terms, streamers that put in considerable effort are more successful than the rest, and that creating social media accounts to promote oneself is effective irrespective of when the accounts are created. Ultimately, we find that studying the popularity and success of content creators in the long term is a promising and rich research area.
Much prior work has studied content features that lead to social network virality. For instance, models to predict Facebook photo re-shares @cite_13 , Twitter re-tweets @cite_1 , Twitter hashtag usage @cite_25 , Digg story up-votes @cite_20 , and hourly volume of news phrases @cite_7 . This area of work identifies both content-specific features (e.g., of a potential Tweet), as well as user-specific features (e.g., their popularity, network characteristics), that are predictive of the content's eventual popularity (i.e # of Shares). Although these studies may use user popularity as a predictive feature, it is unclear how the user became popular . In contrast, we specifically investigate which community-accepted behaviors are predictive of popularity growth over time.
@cite_7 @cite_1 @cite_13 @cite_25 @cite_20
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Social network services have become a viable source of information for users. In Twitter, information deemed important by the community propagates through retweets. Studying the characteristics of such popular messages is important for a number of tasks, such as breaking news detection, personalized message recommendation, viral marketing and others. This paper investigates the problem of predicting the popularity of messages as measured by the number of future retweets and sheds some light on what kinds of factors influence information propagation in Twitter. We formulate the task into a classification problem and study two of its variants by investigating a wide spectrum of features based on the content of the messages, temporal information, metadata of messages and users, as well as structural properties of the users' social graph on a large scale dataset. We show that our method can successfully predict messages which will attract thousands of retweets with good performance. On many social networking web sites such as Facebook and Twitter, resharing or reposting functionality allows users to share others' content with their own friends or followers. As content is reshared from user to user, large cascades of reshares can form. While a growing body of research has focused on analyzing and characterizing such cascades, a recent, parallel line of work has argued that the future trajectory of a cascade may be inherently unpredictable. In this work, we develop a framework for addressing cascade prediction problems. On a large sample of photo reshare cascades on Facebook, we find strong performance in predicting whether a cascade will continue to grow in the future. We find that the relative growth of a cascade becomes more predictable as we observe more of its reshares, that temporal and structural features are key predictors of cascade size, and that initially, breadth, rather than depth in a cascade is a better indicator of larger cascades. This prediction performance is robust in the sense that multiple distinct classes of features all achieve similar performance. We also discover that temporal features are predictive of a cascade's eventual shape. Observing independent cascades of the same content, we find that while these cascades differ greatly in size, we are still able to predict which ends up the largest. Because of Twitter’s popularity and the viral nature of information dissemination on Twitter, predicting which Twitter topics will become popular in the near future becomes a task of considerable economic importance. Many Twitter topics are annotated by hashtags. In this article, we propose methods to predict the popularity of new hashtags on Twitter by formulating the problem as a classification task. We use five standard classification models (i.e., Naive bayes, k-nearest neighbors, decision trees, support vector machines, and logistic regression) for prediction. The main challenge is the identification of effective features for describing new hashtags. We extract 7 content features from a hashtag string and the collection of tweets containing the hashtag and 11 contextual features from the social graph formed by users who have adopted the hashtag. We conducted experiments on a Twitter data set consisting of 31 million tweets from 2 million Singapore-based users. The experimental results show that the standard classifiers using the extracted features significantly outperform the baseline methods that do not use these features. Among the five classifiers, the logistic regression model performs the best in terms of the Micro-F1 measure. We also observe that contextual features are more effective than content features. We present a method for accurately predicting the long time popularity of online content from early measurements of user's access. Using two content sharing portals, Youtube and Digg, we show that by modeling the accrual of views and votes on content offered by these services we can predict the long-term dynamics of individual submissions from initial data. In the case of Digg, measuring access to given stories during the first two hours allows us to forecast their popularity 30 days ahead with remarkable accuracy, while downloads of Youtube videos need to be followed for 10 days to attain the same performance. The differing time scales of the predictions are shown to be due to differences in how content is consumed on the two portals: Digg stories quickly become outdated, while Youtube videos are still found long after they are initially submitted to the portal. We show that predictions are more accurate for submissions for which attention decays quickly, whereas predictions for evergreen content will be prone to larger errors.