The field of statistical relational learning aims at unifying logic and probability to reason and learn from data. Perhaps the most successful paradigm in the field is probabilistic logic programming: the enabling of stochastic primitives in logic programming, which is now increasingly seen to provide a declarative background to complex machine learning applications. While many systems offer inference capabilities, the more significant challenge is that of learning meaningful and interpretable symbolic representations from data. In that regard, inductive logic programming and related techniques have paved much of the way for the last few decades. Unfortunately, a major limitation of this exciting landscape is that much of the work is limited to finite-domain discrete probability distributions. Recently, a handful of systems have been extended to represent and perform inference with continuous distributions. The problem, of course, is that classical solutions for inference are either restricted to well-known parametric families (e.g., Gaussians) or resort to sampling strategies that provide correct answers only in the limit. When it comes to learning, moreover, inducing representations remains entirely open, other than "data-fitting" solutions that force-fit points to aforementioned parametric families. In this paper, we take the first steps towards inducing probabilistic logic programs for continuous and mixed discrete-continuous data, without being pigeon-holed to a fixed set of distribution families. Our key insight is to leverage techniques from piecewise polynomial function approximation theory, yielding a principled way to learn and compositionally construct density functions. We test the framework and discuss the learned representations.
The restrictive nature of parametric families has led to intense activity on piecewise polynomial constructions, e.g., @cite_31 @cite_32 @cite_33 . On the one hand, this representation is general, in that it can be made arbitrarily close to non-polynomial density functions (such as normal and log-normal), by increasing the degree of polynomials and the granularity of the piecewise composition (e.g., @cite_31 @cite_18 ). On the other, under mild conditions, it supports efficient integration (e.g., @cite_30 @cite_16 ). Recently, weighted model integration (WMI) was proposed as a computational abstraction for computing probabilities with continuous and mixed discrete-continuous distributions @cite_33 @cite_24 @cite_16 based on piecewise polynomials. It generalises weighted model counting that is defined over propositional formulas for finite-domain discrete probability distributions, which is the backbone of ProbLog's inference engine @cite_12 .
@cite_30 @cite_18 @cite_33 @cite_32 @cite_24 @cite_31 @cite_16 @cite_12
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Non-parametric density estimation is an important technique in probabilistic modeling and reasoning with uncertainty. We present a method for learning mixtures of polynomials (MoPs) approximations of one-dimensional and multidimensional probability densities from data. The method is based on basis spline interpolation, where a density is approximated as a linear combination of basis splines. We compute maximum likelihood estimators of the mixing coefficients of the linear combination. The Bayesian information criterion is used as the score function to select the order of the polynomials and the number of pieces of the MoP. The method is evaluated in two ways. First, we test the approximation fitting. We sample artificial datasets from known one-dimensional and multidimensional densities and learn MoP approximations from the datasets. The quality of the approximations is analyzed according to different criteria, and the new proposal is compared with MoPs learned with Lagrange interpolation and mixtures of truncated basis functions. Second, the proposed method is used as a non-parametric density estimation technique in Bayesian classifiers. Two of the most widely studied Bayesian classifiers, i.e., the naive Bayes and tree-augmented naive Bayes classifiers, are implemented and compared. Results on real datasets show that the non-parametric Bayesian classifiers using MoPs are comparable to the kernel density-based Bayesian classifiers. We provide a free R package implementing the proposed methods. Weighted model counting (WMC) on a propositional knowledge base is an effective and general approach to probabilistic inference in a variety of formalisms, including Bayesian and Markov Networks. However, an inherent limitation of WMC is that it only admits the inference of discrete probability distributions. In this paper, we introduce a strict generalization of WMC called weighted model integration that is based on annotating Boolean and arithmetic constraints, and combinations thereof. This methodology is shown to capture discrete, continuous and hybrid Markov networks. We then consider the task of parameter learning for a fragment of the language. An empirical evaluation demonstrates the applicability and promise of the proposal. Probabilistic reasoning in the real-world often requires inference in continuous variable graphical models, yet there are few methods for exact, closed-form inference when joint distributions are non-Gaussian. To address this inferential deficit, we introduce SVE - a symbolic extension of the well-known variable elimination algorithm to perform exact inference in an expressive class of mixed discrete and continuous variable graphical models whose conditional probability functions can be well-approximated as oblique piecewise polynomials with bounded support. Using this representation, we show that we can compute all of the SVE operations exactly and in closed-form, which crucially includes definite integration w.r.t. multivariate piecewise polynomial functions. To aid in the efficient computation and compact representation of this solution, we use an extended algebraic decision diagram (XADD) data structure that supports all SVE operations. We provide illustrative results for SVE on probabilistic inference queries inspired by robotics localization and tracking applications that mix various continuous distributions; this represents the first time a general closed-form exact solution has been proposed for this expressive class of discrete continuous graphical models. #SMT, or model counting for logical theories, is a well-known hard problem that generalizes such tasks as counting the number of satisfying assignments to a Boolean formula and computing the volume of a polytope. In the realm of satisfiability modulo theories (SMT) there is a growing need for model counting solvers, coming from several application domains (quantitative information flow, static analysis of probabilistic programs). In this paper, we show a reduction from an approximate version of #SMT to SMT. We focus on the theories of integer arithmetic and linear real arithmetic. We propose model counting algorithms that provide approximate solutions with formal bounds on the approximation error. They run in polynomial time and make a polynomial number of queries to the SMT solver for the underlying theory, exploiting "for free" the sophisticated heuristics implemented within modern SMT solvers. We have implemented the algorithms and used them to solve the value problem for a model of loop-free probabilistic programs with nondeterminism. The main goal of this paper is to describe inference in hybrid Bayesian networks (BNs) using mixture of polynomials (MOP) approximations of probability density functions (PDFs). Hybrid BNs contain a mix of discrete, continuous, and conditionally deterministic random variables. The conditionals for continuous variables are typically described by conditional PDFs. A major hurdle in making inference in hybrid BNs is marginalization of continuous variables, which involves integrating combinations of conditional PDFs. In this paper, we suggest the use of MOP approximations of PDFs, which are similar in spirit to using mixtures of truncated exponentials (MTEs) approximations. MOP functions can be easily integrated, and are closed under combination and marginalization. This enables us to propagate MOP potentials in the extended Shenoy-Shafer architecture for inference in hybrid BNs that can include deterministic variables. MOP approximations have several advantages over MTE approximations of PDFs. They are easier to find, even for multi-dimensional conditional PDFs, and are applicable for a larger class of deterministic functions in hybrid BNs. With the range and sensitivity of algorithmic decisions expanding at a break-neck speed, it is imperative that we aggressively investigate whether programs are biased. We propose a novel probabilistic program analysis technique and apply it to quantifying bias in decision-making programs. Specifically, we (i) present a sound and complete automated verification technique for proving quantitative properties of probabilistic programs; (ii) show that certain notions of bias, recently proposed in the fairness literature, can be phrased as quantitative correctness properties; and (iii) present FairSquare, the first verification tool for quantifying program bias, and evaluate it on a range of decision-making programs. Probabilistic logic programs are logic programs in which some of the facts are annotated with probabilities. Several classical probabilistic inference tasks (such as MAP and computing marginals) have not yet received a lot of attention for this formalism. The contribution of this paper is that we develop efficient inference algorithms for these tasks. This is based on a conversion of the probabilistic logic program and the query and evidence to a weighted CNF formula. This allows us to reduce the inference tasks to well-studied tasks such as weighted model counting. To solve such tasks, we employ state-of-the-art methods. We consider multiple methods for the conversion of the programs as well as for inference on the weighted CNF. The resulting approach is evaluated experimentally and shown to improve upon the state-of-the-art in probabilistic logic programming.