Traffic prediction has drawn increasing attention in AI research field due to the increasing availability of large-scale traffic data and its importance in the real world. For example, an accurate taxi demand prediction can assist taxi companies in pre-allocating taxis. The key challenge of traffic prediction lies in how to model the complex spatial dependencies and temporal dynamics. Although both factors have been considered in modeling, existing works make strong assumptions about spatial dependence and temporal dynamics, i.e., spatial dependence is stationary in time, and temporal dynamics is strictly periodical. However, in practice, the spatial dependence could be dynamic (i.e., changing from time to time), and the temporal dynamics could have some perturbation from one period to another period. In this paper, we make two important observations: (1) the spatial dependencies between locations are dynamic; and (2) the temporal dependency follows daily and weekly pattern but it is not strictly periodic for its dynamic temporal shifting. To address these two issues, we propose a novel Spatial-Temporal Dynamic Network (STDN), in which a flow gating mechanism is introduced to learn the dynamic similarity between locations, and a periodically shifted attention mechanism is designed to handle long-term periodic temporal shifting. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that tackles both issues in a unified framework. Our experimental results on real-world traffic datasets verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.
In time series community, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), Kalman filtering and their variants have been widely used in traffic prediction problem @cite_7 @cite_10 @cite_11 @cite_13 . Recent studies further explore the utilities of external context data, such as venue types, weather conditions, and event information @cite_12 @cite_0 @cite_29 . In addition, spatial information has also been explicitly modeled in recent studies @cite_26 @cite_23 @cite_20 @cite_16 .
@cite_26 @cite_7 @cite_10 @cite_29 @cite_16 @cite_0 @cite_23 @cite_20 @cite_13 @cite_12 @cite_11
2276747974 2113298739 2767655600 2268120789 2743316574 1982978808 1988580225
Real-time traffic prediction from high-fidelity spatiotemporal traffic sensor datasets is an important problem for intelligent transportation systems and sustainability. However, it is challenging due to the complex topological dependencies and high dynamism associated with changing road conditions. In this paper, we propose a Latent Space Model for Road Networks (LSM-RN) to address these challenges holistically. In particular, given a series of road network snapshots, we learn the attributes of vertices in latent spaces which capture both topological and temporal properties. As these latent attributes are time-dependent, they can estimate how traffic patterns form and evolve. In addition, we present an incremental online algorithm which sequentially and adaptively learns the latent attributes from the temporal graph changes. Our framework enables real-time traffic prediction by 1) exploiting real-time sensor readings to adjust update the existing latent spaces, and 2) training as data arrives and making predictions on-the-fly. By conducting extensive experiments with a large volume of real-world traffic sensor data, we demonstrate the superiority of our framework for real-time traffic prediction on large road networks over competitors as well as baseline graph-based LSM's. This paper investigates human mobility patterns in an urban taxi transportation system. This work focuses on predicting humanmobility fromdiscovering patterns of in the number of passenger pick-ups quantity (PUQ) from urban hotspots. This paper proposes an improved ARIMA based prediction method to forecast the spatial-temporal variation of passengers in a hotspot. Evaluation with a large-scale realworld data set of 4 000 taxis' GPS traces over one year shows a prediction error of only 5.8 . We also explore the application of the prediction approach to help drivers find their next passengers. The simulation results using historical real-world data demonstrate that, with our guidance, drivers can reduce the time taken and distance travelled, to find their next passenger, by 37.1 and 6.4 , respectively. The online taxi-calling services have gained great popularity in the era of sharing economy. Comparing with the traditional taxi service, the online taxi-calling service is much more convenient and flexible for passengers, because the taxi platform can provide detailed travel arrangements, transparent estimated price and flexible means of calling in advance. To understand the call willingness of passengers and to increase the quantity of orders, it is important to predict whether a request will be converted to a call order. In this paper, we study the problem of taxi call prediction, which is one of the important components of taxi-calling service system. To solve the problem, we propose a prediction framework, which uses some classification models with combining the basic features such as the order and meteorology information and the personlized historical profiles. Extensive experimental evaluations on real taxi record data from an online taxi-calling service platform demonstrated the effectiveness of our approach. Road travel costs are important knowledge hidden in large-scale GPS trajectory data sets, the discovery of which can benefit many applications such as intelligent route planning and automatic driving navigation. While there are previous studies which tackled this task by modeling it as a regression problem with spatial smoothness taken into account, they unreasonably assumed that the latent cost of each road remains unchanged over time. Other works on route planning and recommendation that have considered temporal factors simply assumed that the temporal dynamics be known in advance as a parametric function over time, which is not faithful to reality. To overcome these limitations, in this paper, we propose an extension to a previous static trajectory regression framework by learning the temporal dynamics of road travel costs in an innovative non-parametric manner which can effectively overcome the temporal sparsity problem. In particular, we unify multiple different trajectory regression problems in a multi-task framework by introducing a novel crosstask regularization which encourages temporal smoothness on the change of road travel costs. We then propose an efficient block coordinate descent method to solve the resulting problem by exploiting its separable structures and prove its convergence to global optimum. Experiments conducted on both synthetic and real data sets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method and its improved accuracy on travel time prediction. Taxi-calling apps are gaining increasing popularity for their efficiency in dispatching idle taxis to passengers in need. To precisely balance the supply and the demand of taxis, online taxicab platforms need to predict the Unit Original Taxi Demand (UOTD), which refers to the number of taxi-calling requirements submitted per unit time (e.g., every hour) and per unit region (e.g., each POI). Predicting UOTD is non-trivial for large-scale industrial online taxicab platforms because both accuracy and flexibility are essential. Complex non-linear models such as GBRT and deep learning are generally accurate, yet require labor-intensive model redesign after scenario changes (e.g., extra constraints due to new regulations). To accurately predict UOTD while remaining flexible to scenario changes, we propose LinUOTD, a unified linear regression model with more than 200 million dimensions of features. The simple model structure eliminates the need of repeated model redesign, while the high-dimensional features contribute to accurate UOTD prediction. We further design a series of optimization techniques for efficient model training and updating. Evaluations on two large-scale datasets from an industrial online taxicab platform verify that LinUOTD outperforms popular non-linear models in accuracy. We envision our experiences to adopt simple linear models with high-dimensional features in UOTD prediction as a pilot study and can shed insights upon other industrial large-scale spatio-temporal prediction problems. The literature on short-term traffic flow forecasting has undergone great development recently. Many works, describing a wide variety of different approaches, which very often share similar features and ideas, have been published. However, publications presenting new prediction algorithms usually employ different settings, data sets, and performance measurements, making it difficult to infer a clear picture of the advantages and limitations of each model. The aim of this paper is twofold. First, we review existing approaches to short-term traffic flow forecasting methods under the common view of probabilistic graphical models, presenting an extensive experimental comparison, which proposes a common baseline for their performance analysis and provides the infrastructure to operate on a publicly available data set. Second, we present two new support vector regression models, which are specifically devised to benefit from typical traffic flow seasonality and are shown to represent an interesting compromise between prediction accuracy and computational efficiency. The SARIMA model coupled with a Kalman filter is the most accurate model; however, the proposed seasonal support vector regressor turns out to be highly competitive when performing forecasts during the most congested periods. Informed driving is increasingly becoming a key feature for increasing the sustainability of taxi companies. The sensors that are installed in each vehicle are providing new opportunities for automatically discovering knowledge, which, in return, delivers information for real-time decision making. Intelligent transportation systems for taxi dispatching and for finding time-saving routes are already exploring these sensing data. This paper introduces a novel methodology for predicting the spatial distribution of taxi-passengers for a short-term time horizon using streaming data. First, the information was aggregated into a histogram time series. Then, three time-series forecasting techniques were combined to originate a prediction. Experimental tests were conducted using the online data that are transmitted by 441 vehicles of a fleet running in the city of Porto, Portugal. The results demonstrated that the proposed framework can provide effective insight into the spatiotemporal distribution of taxi-passenger demand for a 30-min horizon.