Homicide mortality is a worldwide concern and has occupied the agenda of researchers and public managers. In Brazil, homicide is the third leading cause of death in the general population and the first in the 15-39 age group. In South America, Brazil has the third highest homicide mortality, behind Venezuela and Colombia. To measure the impacts of violence it is important to assess health systems and criminal justice, as well as other areas. In this paper, we analyze the spatial distribution of homicide mortality in the state of Goias, Center-West of Brazil, since the homicide rate increased from 24.5 per 100,000 in 2002 to 42.6 per 100,000 in 2014 in this location. Moreover, this state had the fifth position of homicides in Brazil in 2014. We considered socio-demographic variables for the state, performed analysis about correlation and employed three clustering algorithms: K-means, Density-based and Hierarchical. The results indicate the homicide rates are higher in cities neighbors of large urban centers, although these cities have the best socioeconomic indicators.
As far as we know no paper studied the homicide rates focused on the Goi 'as state. Furthermore, we did not find any work using clustering algorithms to analyze the spatial distribution of homicides. The techniques and tools commonly used on this topic are: estimation of regression coefficients @cite_10 @cite_17 ; spatial scan statistics @cite_6 ; SaTScan software methods @cite_20 ; Bayesian approach with Monte Carlo Markov Chain algorithm @cite_3 ; Moran's Global index @cite_9 ; descriptive statistics or correlation techniques @cite_2 @cite_12 ; estimable functions and negative binomial regression @cite_8 ; SSPS software tools @cite_7 ; and multiple regression analysis (stepwise method) @cite_14 .
@cite_14 @cite_7 @cite_8 @cite_9 @cite_3 @cite_6 @cite_2 @cite_10 @cite_12 @cite_20 @cite_17
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Introduction This study seeks to analyse the trend of homicide rate in Mexico in last 30 years by age, gender and mechanism of death and identify the socioeconomic variables that better explain the spatial variations of homicide rate in Mexico in 2000 and 2008. Methods Homicide rates adjusted by age were calculated; through the use of multiple regression analysis (stepwise method), variables that better explained the interstate variations in the homicide rates were identified. Results The results show that although homicide rates in Mexico have been relatively high, the rate markedly decreased between early nineties and 2005, but has increased around 35 in last 3 years; furthermore, years of potential life lost by homicide has increased in recent years because the victims are younger; currently, male homicide rate is nine times higher than female rate; throughout the period more than half of homicides were committed by firearms, and in recent years figures exceed 60 . Moreover, social exclusion, drug trafficking, impunity and firearms possession are key elements to understand the spatial variations of the homicide mortality in Mexico in analysed years. Conclusions In recent years it is observed a rise of the homicide rate and consequently, an increment of the social insecurity at a national level; to reduce the number of homicide victims and spatial variations in the rate, the Mexican government needs to combat the cartels of drug trafficking, but also to implement structural reforms to improve the life conditions of Mexican population and diminish the socioeconomic disparities among states. OBJETIVO: Descrever a evolucao da mortalidade por homicidios no Municipio de Sao Paulo segundo tipo de arma, sexo, raca ou cor, idade e areas de exclusao inclusao social entre 1996 e 2008. METODOS: Estudo ecologico de serie temporal. Os dados sobre obitos ocorridos no Municipio foram coletados da base de dados do Programa de Aprimoramento das Informacoes sobre Mortalidade, seguindo a Classificacao Internacional de Doencas, Decima Revisao (CID-10). Foram calculadas as taxas de mortalidade por homicidio (TMH) para a populacao total, por sexo, raca ou cor, faixa etaria, tipo de arma e area de exclusao inclusao social. As TMH foram padronizadas por idade pelo metodo direto. Foram calculados os percentuais de variacao no periodo estudado. Para as areas de exclusao inclusao social foram calculados os riscos relativos de morte por homicidio. RESULTADOS: As TMH apresentaram queda de 73,7 entre 2001 e 2008. Foi observada reducao da TMH em todos os grupos analisados, mais pronunciada em homens (-74,5 ), jovens de 15 a 24 anos (-78,0 ) e moradores de areas de exclusao social extrema (-79,3 ). A reducao ocorreu, sobretudo, nos homicidios cometidos com armas de fogo (-74,1 ). O risco relativo de morte por homicidio nas areas de exclusao extrema (tendo como referencia areas com algum grau de exclusao social) foi de 2,77 em 1996, 3,9 em 2001 e 2,13 em 2008. Nas areas de alta exclusao social, o risco relativo foi de 2,07 em 1996 e 1,96 em 2008. CONCLUSOES: Para compreender a reducao dos homicidios no Municipio, e importante considerar macrodeterminantes que atingem todo o Municipio e todos os subgrupos populacionais e microdeterminantes que atuam localmente, influenciando de forma diferenciada os homicidios com armas de fogo e os homicidios na populacao jovem, no sexo masculino e em residentes em areas de alta exclusao social. OBJECTIVE To analyze the spatial distribution of homicide mortality in the state of Bahia, Northeastern Brazil. METHODS Ecological study of the 15 to 39-year old male population in the state of Bahia in the period 1996-2010. Data from the Mortality Information System, relating to homicide (X85-Y09) and population estimates from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics were used. The existence of spatial correlation, the presence of clusters and critical areas of the event studied were analyzed using Moran’s I Global and Local indices. RESULTS A non-random spatial pattern was observed in the distribution of rates, as was the presence of three clusters, the first in the north health district, the second in the eastern region, and the third cluster included townships in the south and the far south of Bahia. CONCLUSIONS The homicide mortality in the three different critical areas requires further studies that consider the socioeconomic, cultural and environmental characteristics in order to guide specific preventive and interventionist practices. This paper examines the spatio-temporal evolution of homicide across the municipalities of El Salvador. It aims at identifying both temporal trends and spatial clusters that may contribute to the formation of time-stable corridors lying behind a historically (recurrent) high homicide rate. The results from this study reveal the presence of significant clusters of high homicide municipalities in the Western part of the country that have remained stable over time, and a process of formation of high homicide clusters in the Eastern region. The results show an increasing homicide trend from 2002 to 2013 with significant municipality-specific differential trends across the country. The data suggests that links may exist between the dynamics of homicide rates, drug trafficking and organized crime. Gun violence in the United States of America is a large public health problem that disproportionately affects urban areas. The epidemiology of gun violence reflects various aspects of an infectious disease including spatial and temporal clustering. We examined the spatial and temporal trends of gun violence in Syracuse, New York, a city of 145,000. We used a spatial scan statistic to reveal spatio-temporal clusters of gunshots investigated and corroborated by Syracuse City Police Department for the years 2009–2015. We also examined predictors of areas with increased gun violence using a multi-level zero-inflated Poisson regression with data from the 2010 census. Two space-time clusters of gun violence were revealed in the city. Higher rates of segregation, poverty and the summer months were all associated with increased risk of gun violence. Previous gunshots in the area were associated with a 26.8 increase in the risk of gun violence. Gun violence in Syracuse, NY is both spatially and temporally stable, with some neighborhoods of the city greatly afflicted. This study demonstrate that the empirical literature on the structural convariates of homicide rates contains inconsistent findings across different time periods and different geographical units. This apparent variance of findings may be due to statistical or methodological artifacts of particular studies, such as different time periods covered, units of analysis, samples, model specification, and problems of statistical analysis and inference. A baseline regression model using 11 structural covariates is estimated for cities, metropolitan areas, and states in 1960, 1970, and 1980. The empirical estimates of this model exhibit instability because of high levels of collinearity among several regressors. Principal components analysis is applied to simplify the dimensionally of the structural covariate space. Reestimation of the regression model then indicates that the apparent inconsistencies across time and social space are greatly reduced. The theoretical significance of the findings for substantive theor... The objective was to evaluate correlations between suicide, homicide and socio-demographic variables by an ecological study. Mortality and socio-demographic data were collected from official records of the Ministry of Health and IBGE (2010), aggregated by state (27). The data were analyzed using correlation techniques, factor analysis, principal component analysis with a varimax rotation and multiple linear regression. Suicide age-adjusted rates for the total population, men and women were 5.0, 8.0, and 2.2 per 100,000 inhabitants respectively. The suicide rates ranged from 2.7 in Para to 9.1 in Rio Grande do Sul. Homicide for the total population, men and women were 27.2, 50.8, and 4.5 per 100,000, respectively. The homicide rates ranged from 13.0 in Santa Catarina to 68.9 in Alagoas. Suicide and homicide were negatively associated, the significance persisted among men. Unemployment was negatively correlated with suicide and positively with homicide. Different socio-demographic variables were found to correlate with suicide and homicide in the regressions. Suicide showed a pattern suggesting that, in Brazil, it is related to high socioeconomic status. Homicide seemed to follow the pattern found in other countries, associated with lower social and economic status. Objectives. We modeled the spatiotemporal movement of hotspot clusters of homicide by motive in Newark, New Jersey, to investigate whether different homicide types have different patterns of clustering and movement.Methods. We obtained homicide data from the Newark Police Department Homicide Unit’s investigative files from 1997 through 2007 (n = 560). We geocoded the address at which each homicide victim was found and recorded the date of and the motive for the homicide. We used cluster detection software to model the spatiotemporal movement of statistically significant homicide clusters by motive, using census tract and month of occurrence as the spatial and temporal units of analysis.Results. Gang-motivated homicides showed evidence of clustering and diffusion through Newark. Additionally, gang-motivated homicide clusters overlapped to a degree with revenge and drug-motivated homicide clusters. Escalating dispute and nonintimate familial homicides clustered; however, there was no evidence of diffusion. ... As the 20-year mark since the publication of an article by Kenneth C. Land, Patricia L. McCall, and Lawrence Cohen, “Structural Covariates of Homicide Rates: Are There Any Invariances Across Time and Social Space?” approaches, the question that these scholars originally posed is raised again: Have researchers been able to identify a set of robust structural covariates that consistently predict crime rates? Subsequent to the publication of this piece, numerous scholars have replicated and extended its conceptual, methodological, and empirical work in various ways—with more than 500 citations to date. In response to this attention, the authors first review the advances made by the article. This is followed by a review of findings from studies published over the past 20 years to determine which structural predictors identified in the piece continue to be prominent in the study of homicide and which structural predictors have surfaced in recent years as influential to crime rates. Usin...