Accurate house prediction is of great significance to various real estate stakeholders such as house owners, buyers, investors, and agents. We propose a location-centered prediction framework that differs from existing work in terms of data profiling and prediction model. Regarding data profiling, we define and capture a fine-grained location profile powered by a diverse range of location data sources, such as transportation profile (e.g., distance to nearest train station), education profile (e.g., school zones and ranking), suburb profile based on census data, facility profile (e.g., nearby hospitals, supermarkets). Regarding the choice of prediction model, we observe that a variety of approaches either consider the entire house data for modeling, or split the entire data and model each partition independently. However, such modeling ignores the relatedness between partitions, and for all prediction scenarios, there may not be sufficient training samples per partition for the latter approach. We address this problem by conducting a careful study of exploiting the Multi-Task Learning (MTL) model. Specifically, we map the strategies for splitting the entire house data to the ways the tasks are defined in MTL, and each partition obtained is aligned with a task. Furthermore, we select specific MTL-based methods with different regularization terms to capture and exploit the relatedness between tasks. Based on real-world house transaction data collected in Melbourne, Australia. We design extensive experimental evaluations, and the results indicate a significant superiority of MTL-based methods over state-of-the-art approaches. Meanwhile, we conduct an in-depth analysis on the impact of task definitions and method selections in MTL on the prediction performance, and demonstrate that the impact of task definitions on prediction performance far exceeds that of method selections.
Recent studies have focused on house price prediction from local views and have gradually become a serious alternative and extension of conventional house price modeling approaches. Among these studies, @cite_17 compared alternative methods for taking spatial dependence into account in house price prediction, and concluded that a geostatistical model with disaggregated submarket variables performed the best. @cite_16 investigated the hedonic model and three spatial models, and out-of-sample prediction accuracy was used for comparison purposes. Their prediction results indicated the importance to incorporate the nearest neighbor transactions for predicting housing values. Gerek @cite_34 designed two different adaptive neuro-fuzzy approaches for prediction, namely ANFIS with grid partition (ANFIS-GP) and ANFIS with sub clustering (ANFIS-SC), and the results indicated that the performance of ANFIS-GP was slightly better than that of ANFIS-SC. @cite_11 considered parametric and semi-parametric spatial hedonic model variants to reflect the spatial effects in house price. The proposed model is represented as a mixed model that account for spatial autocorrelation, spatial heterogeneity and (smooth and nonparametrically specified) nonlinearities using penalized splines methodology. The results obtained suggest that the nonlinear models are the best strategies for house price prediction.
@cite_11 @cite_16 @cite_34 @cite_17
2743729757 2030068896 2025117385 1589097074
House price prediction is a hot topic in the economic literature. House price prediction has traditionally been approached using a-spatial linear (or intrinsically linear) hedonic models. It has been shown, however, that spatial effects are inherent in house pricing. This article considers parametric and semi-parametric spatial hedonic model variants that account for spatial autocorrelation, spatial heterogeneity and (smooth and nonparametrically specified) nonlinearities using penalized splines methodology. The models are represented as a mixed model that allow for the estimation of the smoothing parameters along with the other parameters of the model. To assess the out-of-sample performance of the models, the paper uses a database containing the price and characteristics of 10,512 homes in Madrid, Spain (Q1 2010). The results obtained suggest that the nonlinear models accounting for spatial heterogeneity and flexible nonlinear relationships between some of the individual or areal characteristics of the houses and their prices are the best strategies for house price prediction. This research reports results from a competition on modeling spatial and temporal components of house prices. A large, well-documented database was prepared and made available to anyone wishing to join the competition. To prevent data snooping, out-of-sample observations were withheld; they were deposited with one individual who did not enter the competition, but had the responsibility of calculating out-of-sample statistics for results submitted by the others. The competition turned into a cooperative effort, resulting in enhancements to previous methods including: a localized version of Dubin's kriging model, a kriging version of Clapp's local regression model, and a local application of Case's earlier work on dividing a geographic housing market into districts. The results indicate the importance of nearest neighbor transactions for out-of-sample predictions: spatial trend analysis and census tract variables do not perform nearly as well as neighboring residuals. Abstract It is of high importance to estimate the house selling prices because sellers and buyers need this information in an accurate way at time of sale. As a result of the fact that the estimation of the house prices is extorsive considerable research has been published in the literature on estimating house prices. This study covers the application of two different adaptive neuro-fuzzy (ANFIS) approaches for the estimation of house selling price. In this study, two different ANFIS models, namely ANFIS with grid partition (ANFIS-GP) and ANFIS with sub clustering (ANFIS-SC), were used in forecasting house prices, and the results were evaluated. Comparison of results from the two techniques indicated that the ANFIS-GP models performed better than the ANFIS-SC models. The study suggests that the ANFIS-GP technique can be successfully used in the estimation of house prices in the construction sector. This paper compares alternative methods for taking spatial dependence into account in house price prediction. We select hedonic methods that have been reported in the literature to perform relatively well in terms of ex-sample prediction accuracy. Because differences in performance may be due to differences in data, we compare the methods using a single data set. The estimation methods include simple OLS, a two-stage process incorporating nearest neighborsâ€™ residuals in the second stage, geostatistical, and trend surface models. These models take into account submarkets by adding dummy variables or by estimating separate equations for each submarket. Based on data for approximately 13,000 transactions from Louisville, Kentucky, we conclude that a geostatistical model with disaggregated submarket variables performs best.