This paper explores the problem of path planning under uncertainty. Specifically, we consider online receding horizon based planners that need to operate in a latent environment where the latent information can be modeled via Gaussian Processes. Online path planning in latent environments is challenging since the robot needs to explore the environment to get a more accurate model of latent information for better planning later and also achieves the task as quick as possible. We propose UCB style algorithms that are popular in the bandit settings and show how those analyses can be adapted to the online robotic path planning problems. The proposed algorithm trades-off exploration and exploitation in near-optimal manner and has appealing no-regret properties. We demonstrate the efficacy of the framework on the application of aircraft flight path planning when the winds are partially observed.
: POMDPs are used to model Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) where only part of the state of the world can be observed. Finding optimal policies of POMDP is NP-hard @cite_17 . Approximate solutions like Point-Based Value Iteration @cite_1 @cite_15 , Heuristic Search-Based Value Iteration @cite_20 and Monte-Carlo planning @cite_23 are popular goal-free reward oriented solvers. While goal-oriented methods like @cite_2 are more relevant to our problem scenario, they are hard to adapt to continuous observation spaces and computation and time budgets imposed by mobile robots. Belief Space Planning approaches (e.g., @cite_8 @cite_3 @cite_14 @cite_12 @cite_13 @cite_0 ) is also related to our work. But most of belief space planning approaches assume that the uncertainty is known, e.g., the form of the stochastic dynamics are fully known. We do not even assume the form of the uncertainty is known here and we utilize Gaussian Process to keep tracking the uncertainty in a online manner while the robot is moving.
@cite_14 @cite_8 @cite_1 @cite_3 @cite_0 @cite_23 @cite_2 @cite_15 @cite_13 @cite_12 @cite_20 @cite_17
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We present a new approach to motion planning under sensing and motion uncertainty by computing a locally optimal solution to a continuous partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP). Our approach represents beliefs (the distributions of the robot's state estimate) by Gaussian distributions and is applicable to robot systems with non-linear dynamics and observation models. The method follows the general POMDP solution framework in which we approximate the belief dynamics using an extended Kalman filter and represent the value function by a quadratic function that is valid in the vicinity of a nominal trajectory through belief space. Using a belief space variant of iterative LQG (iLQG), our approach iterates with second-order convergence towards a linear control policy over the belief space that is locally optimal with respect to a user-defined cost function. Unlike previous work, our approach does not assume maximum-likelihood observations, does not assume fixed estimator or control gains, takes into account obstacles in the environment, and does not require discretization of the state and action spaces. The running time of the algorithm is polynomial (O[n6]) in the dimension n of the state space. We demonstrate the potential of our approach in simulation for holonomic and non-holonomic robots maneuvering through environments with obstacles with noisy and partial sensing and with non-linear dynamics and observation models. This paper introduces the Point-Based Value Iteration (PBVI) algorithm for POMDP planning. PBVI approximates an exact value iteration solution by selecting a small set of representative belief points and then tracking the value and its derivative for those points only. By using stochastic trajectories to choose belief points, and by maintaining only one value hyper-plane per point, PBVI successfully solves large problems: we present results on a robotic laser tag problem as well as three test domains from the literature. We cast the partially observable control problem as a fully observable underactuated stochastic control problem in belief space and apply standard planning and control techniques. One of the difficulties of belief space planning is modeling the stochastic dynamics resulting from unknown future observations. The core of our proposal is to define deterministic beliefsystem dynamics based on an assumption that the maximum likelihood observation (calculated just prior to the observation) is always obtained. The stochastic effects of future observations are modeled as Gaussian noise. Given this model of the dynamics, two planning and control methods are applied. In the first, linear quadratic regulation (LQR) is applied to generate policies in the belief space. This approach is shown to be optimal for linearGaussian systems. In the second, a planner is used to find locally optimal plans in the belief space. We propose a replanning approach that is shown to converge to the belief space goal in a finite number of replanning steps. These approaches are characterized in the context of a simple nonlinear manipulation problem where a planar robot simultaneously locates and grasps an object. As sampling-based motion planners become faster, they can be reexecuted more frequently by a robot during task execution to react to uncertainty in robot motion, obstacle motion, sensing noise, and uncertainty in the robot's kinematic model. We investigate and analyze high-frequency replanning (HFR) where, during each period, fast sampling-based motion planners are executed in parallel as the robot simultaneously executes the first action of the best motion plan from the previous period. We consider discrete-time systems with stochastic nonlinear (but linearizable) dynamics and observation models with noise drawn from zero mean Gaussian distributions. The objective is to maximize the probability of success (i.e., avoid collision with obstacles and reach the goal) or to minimize path length subject to a lower bound on the probability of success. We show that, as parallel computation power increases, HFR offers asymptotic optimality for these objectives during each period for goal-oriented problems. We then demonstrate the effectiveness of HFR for holonomic and nonholonomic robots including car-like vehicles and steerable medical needles. This paper introduces a Monte-Carlo algorithm for online planning in large POMDPs. The algorithm combines a Monte-Carlo update of the agent's belief state with a Monte-Carlo tree search from the current belief state. The new algorithm, POMCP, has two important properties. First, Monte-Carlo sampling is used to break the curse of dimensionality both during belief state updates and during planning. Second, only a black box simulator of the POMDP is required, rather than explicit probability distributions. These properties enable POMCP to plan effectively in significantly larger POMDPs than has previously been possible. We demonstrate its effectiveness in three large POMDPs. We scale up a well-known benchmark problem, rocksample, by several orders of magnitude. We also introduce two challenging new POMDPs: 10 x 10 battleship and partially observable PacMan, with approximately 1018 and 1056 states respectively. Our Monte-Carlo planning algorithm achieved a high level of performance with no prior knowledge, and was also able to exploit simple domain knowledge to achieve better results with less search. POMCP is the first general purpose planner to achieve high performance in such large and unfactored POMDPs. We investigate the complexity of the classical problem of optimal policy computation in Markov decision processes. All three variants of the problem finite horizon, infinite horizon discounted, and infinite horizon average cost were known to be solvable in polynomial time by dynamic programming finite horizon problems, linear programming, or successive approximation techniques infinite horizon. We show that they are complete for P, and therefore most likely cannot be solved by highly parallel algorithms. We also show that, in contrast, the deterministic cases of all three problems can be solved very fast in parallel. The version with partially observed states is shown to be PSPACE-complete, and thus even less likely to be solved in polynomial time than the NP-complete problems; in fact, we show that, most likely, it is not possible to have an efficient on-line implementation involving polynomial time on-line computations and memory of an optimal policy, even if an arbitrary amount of precomputation is allowed. Finally, the variant of the problem in which there are no observations is shown to be NP-complete.