Trajectory prediction (TP) is of great importance for a wide range of location-based applications in intelligent transport systems such as location-based advertising, route planning, traffic management, and early warning systems. In the last few years, the widespread use of GPS navigation systems and wireless communication technology enabled vehicles has resulted in huge volumes of trajectory data. The task of utilizing this data employing spatio-temporal techniques for trajectory prediction in an efficient and accurate manner is an ongoing research problem. Existing TP approaches are limited to short-term predictions. Moreover, they cannot handle a large volume of trajectory data for long-term prediction. To address these limitations, we propose a scalable clustering and Markov chain based hybrid framework, called Traj-clusiVAT-based TP, for both short-term and long-term trajectory prediction, which can handle a large number of overlapping trajectories in a dense road network. Traj-clusiVAT can also determine the number of clusters, which represent different movement behaviours in input trajectory data. In our experiments, we compare our proposed approach with a mixed Markov model (MMM)-based scheme, and a trajectory clustering, NETSCAN-based TP method for both short- and long-term trajectory predictions. We performed our experiments on two real, vehicle trajectory datasets, including a large-scale trajectory dataset consisting of 3.28 million trajectories obtained from 15,061 taxis in Singapore over a period of one month. Experimental results on two real trajectory datasets show that our proposed approach outperforms the existing approaches in terms of both short- and long-term prediction performances, based on prediction accuracy and distance error (in km).
Ying al @cite_12 proposed an approach for predicting the next location based on geographic and semantic features of user trajectories. This method requires the calculation of a semantic score for each candidate path, which generally incurs additional overhead when compared with other methods. A probabilistic TP model was proposed in @cite_47 based on two mixture models, a (GMM) and a (VGMM), optimized using the (EM) algorithm. Their method requires the prior selection of the number of Gaussian components and other distribution parameters. They evaluated their method on a small dataset, which consists of only @math trajectories. Qiujian al @cite_3 proposed a spatio-temporal prediction and a next-place prediction model based on an entropy-based clustering approach and HMMs.
@cite_47 @cite_3 @cite_12
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In the context of driver assistance, an accurate and reliable prediction of the vehicle's trajectory is beneficial. This can be useful either to increase the flexibility of comfort systems or, in the more interesting case, to detect potentially dangerous situations as early as possible. In this contribution, a novel approach for trajectory prediction is proposed which has the capability to predict the vehicle's trajectory several seconds in advance, the so called long-term prediction. To achieve this, previously observed motion patterns are used to infer a joint probability distribution as motion model. Using this distribution, a trajectory can be predicted by calculating the probability for the future motion, conditioned on the current observed history motion pattern. The advantage of the probabilistic modeling is that the result is not only a prediction, but rather a whole distribution over the future trajectories and a specific prediction can be made by the evaluation of the statistical properties, e.g. the mean of this conditioned distribution. Additionally, an evaluation of the variance can be used to examine the reliability of the prediction. With the emergence of smartphones and location-based services, user mobility prediction has become a critical enabler for a wide range of applications, like location-based advertising, early warning systems, and citywide traffic planning. A number of techniques have been proposed to either conduct spatio-temporal mobility prediction or forecast the next-place. However, both produce diverse prediction performance for different users and display poor performance for some users. This paper focuses on investigating the effect of living habits on the models of spatio-temporal prediction and next-place prediction, and selects one from these two models for an individual to achieve effective mobility prediction at users’ points of interest. Based on the hidden Markov model (HMM), a spatio-temporal predictor and a next-place predictor are proposed. Living habits are analyzed in terms of entropy, upon which users are clustered into distinct groups. With large-scale factual mobile data captured from a big city, we compare the proposed HMM-based predictors with existing state-of-the-art predictors and apply them to different user groups. The results demonstrate the robust performance of the two proposed mobility predictors, which outperform the state of the art for various user groups. Research on predicting movements of mobile users has attracted a lot of attentions in recent years. Many of those prediction techniques are developed based only on geographic features of mobile users' trajectories. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for predicting the next location of a user's movement based on both the geographic and semantic features of users' trajectories. The core idea of our prediction model is based on a novel cluster-based prediction strategy which evaluates the next location of a mobile user based on the frequent behaviors of similar users in the same cluster determined by analyzing users' common behavior in semantic trajectories. Through a comprehensive evaluation by experiments, our proposal is shown to deliver excellent performance.