Investment decisions can benefit from incorporating an accumulated knowledge of the past to drive future decision making. We introduce Continual Learning Augmentation (CLA) which is based on an explicit memory structure and a feed forward neural network (FFNN) base model and used to drive long term financial investment decisions. We demonstrate that our approach improves accuracy in investment decision making while memory is addressed in an explainable way. Our approach introduces novel remember cues, consisting of empirically learned change points in the absolute error series of the FFNN. Memory recall is also novel, with contextual similarity assessed over time by sampling distances using dynamic time warping (DTW). We demonstrate the benefits of our approach by using it in an expected return forecasting task to drive investment decisions. In an investment simulation in a broad international equity universe between 2003-2017, our approach significantly outperforms FFNN base models. We also illustrate how CLA's memory addressing works in practice, using a worked example to demonstrate the explainability of our approach.
Memory modelling approaches using external memory structures requires an appropriate memory addressing mechanism (a way of storing and recalling a memory). Memory addressing is generally based on a similarity measure such as cosine similarity @cite_23 @cite_10 kernel weighting @cite_33 , use of linear models @cite_38 or instance-based similarities, many using K-nearest neighbours @cite_21 @cite_22 . However, these approaches are not obviously well suited to assessing the similarity of noisy and non-stationary, multivariate time-series. Euclidean distance offers a way to compare time-series but has a high sensitivity to the timing of data-points, something that has been addressed by dynamic time warping (DTW) @cite_18 @cite_5 . However, DTW requires normalized data @cite_27 and is also computationally expensive, although some mitigating measures have been developed (see @cite_8 ).
@cite_38 @cite_18 @cite_33 @cite_22 @cite_8 @cite_21 @cite_27 @cite_23 @cite_5 @cite_10
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We propose prototypical networks for the problem of few-shot classification, where a classifier must generalize to new classes not seen in the training set, given only a small number of examples of each new class. Prototypical networks learn a metric space in which classification can be performed by computing distances to prototype representations of each class. Compared to recent approaches for few-shot learning, they reflect a simpler inductive bias that is beneficial in this limited-data regime, and achieve excellent results. We provide an analysis showing that some simple design decisions can yield substantial improvements over recent approaches involving complicated architectural choices and meta-learning. We further extend prototypical networks to zero-shot learning and achieve state-of-the-art results on the CU-Birds dataset. This paper reports on an optimum dynamic progxamming (DP) based time-normalization algorithm for spoken word recognition. First, a general principle of time-normalization is given using time-warping function. Then, two time-normalized distance definitions, called symmetric and asymmetric forms, are derived from the principle. These two forms are compared with each other through theoretical discussions and experimental studies. The symmetric form algorithm superiority is established. A new technique, called slope constraint, is successfully introduced, in which the warping function slope is restricted so as to improve discrimination between words in different categories. The effective slope constraint characteristic is qualitatively analyzed, and the optimum slope constraint condition is determined through experiments. The optimized algorithm is then extensively subjected to experimental comparison with various DP-algorithms, previously applied to spoken word recognition by different research groups. The experiment shows that the present algorithm gives no more than about two-thirds errors, even compared to the best conventional algorithm. Learning from a few examples remains a key challenge in machine learning. Despite recent advances in important domains such as vision and language, the standard supervised deep learning paradigm does not offer a satisfactory solution for learning new concepts rapidly from little data. In this work, we employ ideas from metric learning based on deep neural features and from recent advances that augment neural networks with external memories. Our framework learns a network that maps a small labelled support set and an unlabelled example to its label, obviating the need for fine-tuning to adapt to new class types. We then define one-shot learning problems on vision (using Omniglot, ImageNet) and language tasks. Our algorithm improves one-shot accuracy on ImageNet from 87.6 to 93.2 and from 88.0 to 93.8 on Omniglot compared to competing approaches. We also demonstrate the usefulness of the same model on language modeling by introducing a one-shot task on the Penn Treebank. Deep neural networks have excelled on a wide range of problems, from vision to language and game playing. Neural networks very gradually incorporate information into weights as they process data, requiring very low learning rates. If the training distribution shifts, the network is slow to adapt, and when it does adapt, it typically performs badly on the training distribution before the shift. Our method, Memory-based Parameter Adaptation, stores examples in memory and then uses a context-based lookup to directly modify the weights of a neural network. Much higher learning rates can be used for this local adaptation, reneging the need for many iterations over similar data before good predictions can be made. As our method is memory-based, it alleviates several shortcomings of neural networks, such as catastrophic forgetting, fast, stable acquisition of new knowledge, learning with an imbalanced class labels, and fast learning during evaluation. We demonstrate this on a range of supervised tasks: large-scale image classification and language modelling. Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) is probably the most popular distance measure for time series data, because it captures flexible similarities under time distortions. However, DTW has long been suffering from the pathological alignment problem, and most existing solutions, which essentially impose rigid constraints on the warping path, are likely to miss the correct alignments. A crucial observation on pathological alignment is that it always leads to an abnormally large number of links between two sequences. Based on this new observation, we propose a novel variant of DTW called LDTW, which limits the total number of links during the optimization process of DTW. LDTW not only oppresses the pathological alignment effectively, but also allows more flexibilities when measuring similarities. It is a softer constraint because we still let the optimization process of DTW decide how many links to allocate to each data point and where to put these links. In this paper, we introduce the motivation and algorithm of LDTW and we conduct a nearest neighbor classification experiment on UCR time series archive to show its performance. In the last decade there has been an explosion of interest in mining time series data. Literally hundreds of papers have introduced new algorithms to index, classify, cluster and segment time series. In this work we make the following claim. Much of this work has very little utility because the contribution made (speed in the case of indexing, accuracy in the case of classification and clustering, model accuracy in the case of segmentation) offer an amount of “improvement” that would have been completely dwarfed by the variance that would have been observed by testing on many real world datasets, or the variance that would have been observed by changing minor (unstated) implementation details. To illustrate our point, we have undertaken the most exhaustive set of time series experiments ever attempted, re-implementing the contribution of more than two dozen papers, and testing them on 50 real world, highly diverse datasets. Our empirical results strongly support our assertion, and suggest the need for a set of time series benchmarks and more careful empirical evaluation in the data mining community. The last decade has witnessed a tremendous growths of interests in applications that deal with querying and mining of time series data. Numerous representation methods for dimensionality reduction and similarity measures geared towards time series have been introduced. Each individual work introducing a particular method has made specific claims and, aside from the occasional theoretical justifications, provided quantitative experimental observations. However, for the most part, the comparative aspects of these experiments were too narrowly focused on demonstrating the benefits of the proposed methods over some of the previously introduced ones. In order to provide a comprehensive validation, we conducted an extensive set of time series experiments re-implementing 8 different representation methods and 9 similarity measures and their variants, and testing their effectiveness on 38 time series data sets from a wide variety of application domains. In this paper, we give an overview of these different techniques and present our comparative experimental findings regarding their effectiveness. Our experiments have provided both a unified validation of some of the existing achievements, and in some cases, suggested that certain claims in the literature may be unduly optimistic.