We apply empirical likelihood techniques to contextual bandit policy value estimation, confidence intervals, and learning. We propose a tighter estimator for off-policy evaluation with improved statistical performance over previous proposals. Coupled with this estimator is a confidence interval which also improves over previous proposals. We then harness these to improve learning from contextual bandit data. Each of these is empirically evaluated to show good performance against strong baselines in finite sample regimes.
Ideas from empirical likelihood have previously been applied to robust supervised learning @cite_14 . Our combination of confidence intervals with learning is a contextual bandit analogue to robust supervised learning. Regularizing counterfactual learning via lower-bound optimization has been previously considered, e.g., based upon empirical Bernstein bounds @cite_3 or divergence-based trust regions grounded in lower bounds from conservative policy iteration @cite_25 @cite_20 .
@cite_14 @cite_20 @cite_25 @cite_3
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We study statistical inference and distributionally robust solution methods for stochastic optimization problems, focusing on confidence intervals for optimal values and solutions that achieve exact coverage asymptotically. We develop a generalized empirical likelihood framework---based on distributional uncertainty sets constructed from nonparametric @math -divergence balls---for Hadamard differentiable functionals, and in particular, stochastic optimization problems. As consequences of this theory, we provide a principled method for choosing the size of distributional uncertainty regions to provide one- and two-sided confidence intervals that achieve exact coverage. We also give an asymptotic expansion for our distributionally robust formulation, showing how robustification regularizes problems by their variance. Finally, we show that optimizers of the distributionally robust formulations we study enjoy (essentially) the same consistency properties as those in classical sample average approximations. Our general approach applies to quickly mixing stationary sequences, including geometrically ergodic Harris recurrent Markov chains. In this article, we describe a method for optimizing control policies, with guaranteed monotonic improvement. By making several approximations to the theoretically-justified scheme, we develop a practical algorithm, called Trust Region Policy Optimization (TRPO). This algorithm is effective for optimizing large nonlinear policies such as neural networks. Our experiments demonstrate its robust performance on a wide variety of tasks: learning simulated robotic swimming, hopping, and walking gaits; and playing Atari games using images of the screen as input. Despite its approximations that deviate from the theory, TRPO tends to give monotonic improvement, with little tuning of hyperparameters. We develop a learning principle and an efficient algorithm for batch learning from logged bandit feedback. This learning setting is ubiquitous in online systems (e.g., ad placement, web search, recommendation), where an algorithm makes a prediction (e.g., ad ranking) for a given input (e.g., query) and observes bandit feedback (e.g., user clicks on presented ads). We first address the counterfactual nature of the learning problem (, 2013) through propensity scoring. Next, we prove generalization error bounds that account for the variance of the propensity-weighted empirical risk estimator. In analogy to the Structural Risk Minimization principle of Wapnik and Tscherwonenkis (1979), these constructive bounds give rise to the Counterfactual Risk Minimization (CRM) principle. We show how CRM can be used to derive a new learning method--called Policy Optimizer for Exponential Models (POEM)--for learning stochastic linear rules for structured output prediction. We present a decomposition of the POEM objective that enables efficient stochastic gradient optimization. The effectiveness and efficiency of POEM is evaluated on several simulated multi-label classification problems, as well as on a real-world information retrieval problem. The empirical results show that the CRM objective implemented in POEM provides improved robustness and generalization performance compared to the state-of-the-art.