We show that collaborative filtering can be viewed as a sequence prediction problem, and that given this interpretation, recurrent neural networks offer very competitive approach. In particular we study how the long short-term memory (LSTM) can be applied to collaborative filtering, and how it compares to standard nearest neighbors and matrix factorization methods on movie recommendation. We show that the LSTM is competitive in all aspects, and largely outperforms other methods in terms of item coverage and short term predictions.
Some earlier works have framed collaborative filtering as a sequence prediction problem and used simpler Markov chain methods to solve it. In the early 2000s, @cite_10 used a simple Markov model and tested it for web-page recommendation. @cite_8 adopted a similar approach, using sequential pattern mining. Both showed the superiority of methods based on sequence over nearest-neighbors approaches. In @cite_15 @cite_14 , defended the view of recommendation systems as a Markov decision process, and although the predictive model was not their main focus, they did present in @cite_15 a Markov chain approach, improved by some heuristics such as skipping and clustering.
@cite_15 @cite_14 @cite_10 @cite_8
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Typical Recommender systems adopt a static view of the recommendation process and treat it as a prediction problem. We argue that it is more appropriate to view the problem of generating recommendations as a sequential decision problem and, consequently, that Markov decision processes (MDP) provide a more appropriate model for Recommender systems. MDPs introduce two benefits: they take into account the long-term effects of each recommendation, and they take into account the expected value of each recommendation. To succeed in practice, an MDP-based Recommender system must employ a strong initial model; and the bulk of this paper is concerned with the generation of such a model. In particular, we suggest the use of an n-gram predictive model for generating the initial MDP. Our n-gram model induces a Markov-chain model of user behavior whose predictive accuracy is greater than that of existing predictive models. We describe our predictive model in detail and evaluate its performance on real data. In addition, we show how the model can be used in an MDP-based Recommender system. We treat collaborative filtering as a univariate time series problem: given a user's previous votes, predict the next vote. We describe two families of methods for transforming data to encode time order in ways amenable to off-the-shelf classification and density estimation tools. Using a decision-tree learning tool and two real-world data sets, we compare the results of these approaches to the results of collaborative filtering without ordering information. The improvements in both predictive accuracy and in recommendation quality that we realize advocate the use of predictive algorithms exploiting the temporal order of data. We describe an efficient framework for Web personalization based on sequential and non-sequential pattern discovery from usage data. Our experimental results performed on real usage data indicate that more restrictive patterns, such as contiguous sequential patterns (e.g., frequent navigational paths) are more suitable for predictive tasks, such as Web prefetching, (which involve predicting which item is accessed next by a user), while less constrained patterns, such as frequent item sets or general sequential patterns are more effective alternatives in the context of Web personalization and recommender systems.