In this paper, we investigate whether text from a Community Question Answering (QA) platform can be used to predict and describe real-world attributes. We experiment with predicting a wide range of 62 demographic attributes for neighbourhoods of London. We use the text from QA platform of Yahoo! Answers and compare our results to the ones obtained from Twitter microblogs. Outcomes show that the correlation between the predicted demographic attributes using text from Yahoo! Answers discussions and the observed demographic attributes can reach an average Pearson correlation coefficient of ho = 0.54, slightly higher than the predictions obtained using Twitter data. Our qualitative analysis indicates that there is semantic relatedness between the highest correlated terms extracted from both datasets and their relative demographic attributes. Furthermore, the correlations highlight the different natures of the information contained in Yahoo! Answers and Twitter. While the former seems to offer a more encyclopedic content, the latter provides information related to the current sociocultural aspects or phenomena.
The availability of a huge amount of data from many social media platforms has inspired researchers to study the relation between the data on these platforms and many real-world attributes. Twitter data, in particular, has been widely used as a social media source to make predictions in many domains. For example, box-office revenues are predicted using text from Twitter microblogs @cite_3 . Prediction results have been predicted by performing content analysis on tweets @cite_18 . It is shown that correlations exist between mood states of the collective tweets to the value of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) @cite_6 .
@cite_18 @cite_6 @cite_3
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Twitter is a microblogging website where users read and write millions of short messages on a variety of topics every day. This study uses the context of the German federal election to investigate whether Twitter is used as a forum for political deliberation and whether online messages on Twitter validly mirror offline political sentiment. Using LIWC text analysis software, we conducted a content-analysis of over 100,000 messages containing a reference to either a political party or a politician. Our results show that Twitter is indeed used extensively for political deliberation. We find that the mere number of messages mentioning a party reflects the election result. Moreover, joint mentions of two parties are in line with real world political ties and coalitions. An analysis of the tweets’ political sentiment demonstrates close correspondence to the parties' and politicians’ political positions indicating that the content of Twitter messages plausibly reflects the offline political landscape. We discuss the use of microblogging message content as a valid indicator of political sentiment and derive suggestions for further research. Behavioral economics tells us that emotions can profoundly affect individual behavior and decision-making. Does this also apply to societies at large, i.e. can societies experience mood states that affect their collective decision making? By extension is the public mood correlated or even predictive of economic indicators? Here we investigate whether measurements of collective mood states derived from large-scale Twitter feeds are correlated to the value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) over time. We analyze the text content of daily Twitter feeds by two mood tracking tools, namely OpinionFinder that measures positive vs. negative mood and Google-Profile of Mood States (GPOMS) that measures mood in terms of 6 dimensions (Calm, Alert, Sure, Vital, Kind, and Happy). We cross-validate the resulting mood time series by comparing their ability to detect the public's response to the presidential election and Thanksgiving day in 2008. A Granger causality analysis and a Self-Organizing Fuzzy Neural Network are then used to investigate the hypothesis that public mood states, as measured by the OpinionFinder and GPOMS mood time series, are predictive of changes in DJIA closing values. Our results indicate that the accuracy of DJIA predictions can be significantly improved by the inclusion of specific public mood dimensions but not others. We find an accuracy of 87.6 in predicting the daily up and down changes in the closing values of the DJIA and a reduction of the Mean Average Percentage Error by more than 6 . Index Terms—stock market prediction — twitter — mood analysis. In recent years, social media has become ubiquitous and important for social networking and content sharing. And yet, the content that is generated from these websites remains largely untapped. In this paper, we demonstrate how social media content can be used to predict real-world outcomes. In particular, we use the chatter from Twitter.com to forecast box-office revenues for movies. We show that a simple model built from the rate at which tweets are created about particular topics can outperform market-based predictors. We further demonstrate how sentiments extracted from Twitter can be utilized to improve the forecasting power of social media.