We address the problem of incrementally modeling and forecasting long-term goals of a first-person camera wearer: what the user will do, where they will go, and what goal they seek. In contrast to prior work in trajectory forecasting, our algorithm, DARKO, goes further to reason about semantic states (will I pick up an object?), and future goal states that are far in terms of both space and time. DARKO learns and forecasts from first-person visual observations of the user's daily behaviors via an Online Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL) approach. Classical IRL discovers only the rewards in a batch setting, whereas DARKO discovers the states, transitions, rewards, and goals of a user from streaming data. Among other results, we show DARKO forecasts goals better than competing methods in both noisy and ideal settings, and our approach is theoretically and empirically no-regret.
The theory of learning to making optimal predictions from streaming data is well studied @cite_9 but is rarely used in computer vision, compared to the more prevalent application of supervised learning theory. We believe, however, that the utility of online learning theory is likely to increase as the amount of available data for processing is ever increasing. While the concept of online learning has been applied to inverse reinforcement learning @cite_23 , the work was primarily theoretic in nature and has found limited application.
@cite_9 @cite_23
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Online learning is a well established learning paradigm which has both theoretical and practical appeals. The goal of online learning is to make a sequence of accurate predictions given knowledge of the correct answer to previous prediction tasks and possibly additional available information. Online learning has been studied in several research fields including game theory, information theory, and machine learning. It also became of great interest to practitioners due the recent emergence of large scale applications such as online advertisement placement and online web ranking. In this survey we provide a modern overview of online learning. Our goal is to give the reader a sense of some of the interesting ideas and in particular to underscore the centrality of convexity in deriving efficient online learning algorithms. We do not mean to be comprehensive but rather to give a high-level, rigorous yet easy to follow, survey. Imitation learning of sequential, goal-directed behavior by standard supervised techniques is often difficult. We frame learning such behaviors as a maximum margin structured prediction problem over a space of policies. In this approach, we learn mappings from features to cost so an optimal policy in an MDP with these cost mimics the expert's behavior. Further, we demonstrate a simple, provably efficient approach to structured maximum margin learning, based on the subgradient method, that leverages existing fast algorithms for inference. Although the technique is general, it is particularly relevant in problems where A* and dynamic programming approaches make learning policies tractable in problems beyond the limitations of a QP formulation. We demonstrate our approach applied to route planning for outdoor mobile robots, where the behavior a designer wishes a planner to execute is often clear, while specifying cost functions that engender this behavior is a much more difficult task.