We present a simple model of a non-equilibrium self-organizing market where asset prices are partially driven by investment decisions of a bounded-rational agent. The agent acts in a stochastic market environment driven by various exogenous "alpha" signals, agent's own actions (via market impact), and noise. Unlike traditional agent-based models, our agent aggregates all traders in the market, rather than being a representative agent. Therefore, it can be identified with a bounded-rational component of the market itself, providing a particular implementation of an Invisible Hand market mechanism. In such setting, market dynamics are modeled as a fictitious self-play of such bounded-rational market-agent in its adversarial stochastic environment. As rewards obtained by such self-playing market agent are not observed from market data, we formulate and solve a simple model of such market dynamics based on a neuroscience-inspired Bounded Rational Information Theoretic Inverse Reinforcement Learning (BRIT-IRL). This results in effective asset price dynamics with a non-linear mean reversion - which in our model is generated dynamically, rather than being postulated. We argue that our model can be used in a similar way to the Black-Litterman model. In particular, it represents, in a simple modeling framework, market views of common predictive signals, market impacts and implied optimal dynamic portfolio allocations, and can be used to assess values of private signals. Moreover, it allows one to quantify a "market-implied" optimal investment strategy, along with a measure of market rationality. Our approach is numerically light, and can be implemented using standard off-the-shelf software such as TensorFlow.
Of course, deficiencies of standard financial models based on competitive market equilibrium and or no-arbitrage paradigm were not left unnoticed both within the financial community, and among researchers in other disciplines, most notably physics and computer science. The latter disciplines contributed a number of interesting and fresh ideas to financial modeling @cite_39 , @cite_8 . In particular, agent-based models may provide interesting insight into how financial markets can operate when viewed as evolving complex systems , see e.g. @cite_12 .
@cite_8 @cite_12 @cite_39
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Agent-based modeling of zapping behavior of viewers, television commercial allocation, and advertisement markets by Hiroyuki Kyan and Jun-ichi Inoue.- Agent based modeling of Housing asset bubble: A simple utility function based investigation by Kausik Gangopadhyay and Kousik Guhathakurta.- Urn model-based adaptive Multi-arm clinical trials: A stochastic approximation approach by Sophie Laruelle and Gilles Pages.- Logistic modeling of a Religious Sect features by Marcel Ausloos.- Characterizing financial crisis by means of the three states random field Ising model by Mitsuaki Murota and Jun-ichi Inoue.- Themes and applications of kinetic exchange models: Redux by Asim Ghosh, Anindya S. Chakrabarti, Anjan Kumar Chandra and Anirban Chakraborti.- Kinetic exchange opinion model: solution in the single parameter map limit by Krishanu Roy Chowdhury, Asim Ghosh, Soumyajyoti Biswas and Bikas K. Chakrabarti.- An overview of the new frontiers of Economic Complexity by Matthieu Cristelli, Andrea Tacchella, Luciano Pietronero.- Jan Tinbergen's legacy for economic networks: from the gravity model to quantum statistics by Tiziano Squartini and Diego Garlaschelli.- A macroscopic order of consumer demand due to heterogenous consumer behaviors on Japanese household demand tested by the random matrix theory by Yuji Aruka,Yuichi Kichikawa and Hiroshi Iyetomi.- Uncovering the network structure of the world currency market: Cross-correlations in the fluctuations of daily exchange rates by Sitabhra Sinha and Uday Kovur.- Systemic risk in Japanese credit network by Hideaki Aoyama.- Pricing of goods with Bandwagon properties: The curse of coordination by Mirta B. Gordon, Jean-Pierre Nadal, Denis Phan and Viktoriya Semeshenko.- Evolution of Econophysics by Kishore C. Dash.- Econophysics and sociophysics: Problems and prospects by Asim Ghosh and Anindya S. Chakrabarti.- A discussion on Econophysics by Hideaki Aoyama. Risk control and derivative pricing have become of major concern to financial institutions, and there is a real need for adequate statistical tools to measure and anticipate the amplitude of the potential moves of the financial markets. Summarising theoretical developments in the field, this 2003 second edition has been substantially expanded. Additional chapters now cover stochastic processes, Monte-Carlo methods, Black-Scholes theory, the theory of the yield curve, and Minority Game. There are discussions on aspects of data analysis, financial products, non-linear correlations, and herding, feedback and agent based models. This book has become a classic reference for graduate students and researchers working in econophysics and mathematical finance, and for quantitative analysts working on risk management, derivative pricing and quantitative trading strategies.