We study the use of viral marketing strategies on social networks to maximize revenue from the sale of a single product. We propose a model in which the decision of a buyer to buy the product is influenced by friends that own the product and the price at which the product is offered. The influence model we analyze is quite general, naturally extending both the Linear Threshold model and the Independent Cascade model, while also incorporating price information. We consider sales proceeding in a cascading manner through the network, i.e. a buyer is offered the product via recommendations from its neighbors who own the product. In this setting, the seller influences events by offering a cashback to recommenders and by setting prices (via coupons or discounts) for each buyer in the social network. Finding a seller strategy which maximizes the expected revenue in this setting turns out to be NP-hard. However, we propose a seller strategy that generates revenue guaranteed to be within a constant factor of the optimal strategy in a wide variety of models. The strategy is based on an influence-and-exploit idea, and it consists of finding the right trade-off at each time step between: generating revenue from the current user versus offering the product for free and using the influence generated from this sale later in the process. We also show how local search can be used to improve the performance of this technique in practice.
The problem of social contagion or spread of influence was first formulated by the sociological community, and introduced to the computer science community by Domingos and Richardson @cite_0 . An influential paper by Kempe, Kleinberg and Tardos @cite_6 solved the target set selection problem posed by @cite_0 and sparked interest in this area from a theoretical perspective (see @cite_1 ). This work has mostly been limited to the influence maximization paradigm, where influence has been taken to be a proxy for the revenue generated through a sale. Although similar to our work in spirit, there is no notion of price in this model, and therefore, our central problem of setting prices to encourage influence spread requires a more complicated model.
@cite_0 @cite_1 @cite_6
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One of the major applications of data mining is in helping companies determine which potential customers to market to. If the expected profit from a customer is greater than the cost of marketing to her, the marketing action for that customer is executed. So far, work in this area has considered only the intrinsic value of the customer (i.e, the expected profit from sales to her). We propose to model also the customer's network value: the expected profit from sales to other customers she may influence to buy, the customers those may influence, and so on recursively. Instead of viewing a market as a set of independent entities, we view it as a social network and model it as a Markov random field. We show the advantages of this approach using a social network mined from a collaborative filtering database. Marketing that exploits the network value of customers---also known as viral marketing---can be extremely effective, but is still a black art. Our work can be viewed as a step towards providing a more solid foundation for it, taking advantage of the availability of large relevant databases. The flow of information or influence through a large social network can be thought of as unfolding with the dynamics of an epidemic: as individuals become aware of new ideas, technologies, fads, rumors, or gossip, they have the potential to pass them on to their friends and colleagues, causing the resulting behavior to cascade through the network. We consider a collection of probabilistic and game-theoretic models for such phenomena proposed in the mathematical social sciences, as well as recent algorithmic work on the problem by computer scientists. Building on this, we discuss the implications of cascading behavior in a number of on-line settings, including word-of-mouth effects (also known as “viral marketing”) in the success of new products, and the influence of social networks in the growth of on-line