Uplift modeling is an area of machine learning which aims at predicting the causal effect of some action on a given individual. The action may be a medical procedure, marketing campaign, or any other circumstance controlled by the experimenter. Building an uplift model requires two training sets: the treatment group, where individuals have been subject to the action, and the control group, where no action has been performed. An uplift model allows then to assess the gain resulting from taking the action on a given individual, such as the increase in probability of patient recovery or of a product being purchased. This paper describes an adaptation of the well-known boosting techniques to the uplift modeling case. We formulate three desirable properties which an uplift boosting algorithm should have. Since all three properties cannot be satisfied simultaneously, we propose three uplift boosting algorithms, each satisfying two of them. Experiments demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed methods, which often dramatically improve performance of the base models and are thus new and powerful tools for uplift modeling.
Some variations on the uplift modeling theme have also been explored. @cite_9 proposed an approach to online advertising which combines uplift modeling with maximizing the response rate in the treatment group to increase advertiser's benefits. We do not address such problems in this paper.
@cite_9
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A long-standing goal in advertising is to reduce wasted costs due to advertising to people who are unlikely to buy, as well as to those who would make a purchase whether they saw an ad or not. The ideal audience for the advertiser are those incremental users who would buy if shown an ad, and would not buy, if not shown the ad. On the other hand, for publishers who are paid when the user clicks or buys, revenue may be maximized by showing ads to those users who are most likely to click or purchase. We show analytically and empirically that an optimization towards one metric might result in an inferior performance in the other one. We present a novel algorithm, called SLC, that performs a joint optimization towards both advertisers' and publishers' goals and provides superior results in both.