We propose the use of Bayesian networks, which provide both a mean value and an uncertainty estimate as output, to enhance the safety of learned control policies under circumstances in which a test-time input differs significantly from the training set. Our algorithm combines reinforcement learning and end-to-end imitation learning to simultaneously learn a control policy as well as a threshold over the predictive uncertainty of the learned model, with no hand-tuning required. Corrective action, such as a return of control to the model predictive controller or human expert, is taken when the uncertainty threshold is exceeded. We validate our method on fully-observable and vision-based partially-observable systems using cart-pole and autonomous driving simulations using deep convolutional Bayesian neural networks. We demonstrate that our method is robust to uncertainty resulting from varying system dynamics as well as from partial state observability.
We introduce the DropoutVGG Net, which combines VGG Net @cite_17 , the dropout technique for Bayesian approximation @cite_18 , and Concrete Dropout @cite_11 for selection of the dropout probabilities in our neural network. We use Cross-Entropy RL to optimally select an uncertainty threshold for return of control from a learned model to a MPC expert policy. Our formulation considers both the aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty of our neural network policy. We demonstrate that our method is robust to uncertainty from varying system dynamics as well as uncertainty from partial state observability. Use a model predictive controller as expert for a demonstration and successfully learn safe MPC using end-to-end learning with a Bayesian convolutional neural networks. We demonstrate our results on cart-pole balancing and autonomous driving tasks in both fully and partially observable cases.
@cite_18 @cite_11 @cite_17
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Deep learning tools have gained tremendous attention in applied machine learning. However such tools for regression and classification do not capture model uncertainty. In comparison, Bayesian models offer a mathematically grounded framework to reason about model uncertainty, but usually come with a prohibitive computational cost. In this paper we develop a new theoretical framework casting dropout training in deep neural networks (NNs) as approximate Bayesian inference in deep Gaussian processes. A direct result of this theory gives us tools to model uncertainty with dropout NNs - extracting information from existing models that has been thrown away so far. This mitigates the problem of representing uncertainty in deep learning without sacrificing either computational complexity or test accuracy. We perform an extensive study of the properties of dropout's uncertainty. Various network architectures and nonlinearities are assessed on tasks of regression and classification, using MNIST as an example. We show a considerable improvement in predictive log-likelihood and RMSE compared to existing state-of-the-art methods, and finish by using dropout's uncertainty in deep reinforcement learning. Abstract: In this work we investigate the effect of the convolutional network depth on its accuracy in the large-scale image recognition setting. Our main contribution is a thorough evaluation of networks of increasing depth using an architecture with very small (3x3) convolution filters, which shows that a significant improvement on the prior-art configurations can be achieved by pushing the depth to 16-19 weight layers. These findings were the basis of our ImageNet Challenge 2014 submission, where our team secured the first and the second places in the localisation and classification tracks respectively. We also show that our representations generalise well to other datasets, where they achieve state-of-the-art results. We have made our two best-performing ConvNet models publicly available to facilitate further research on the use of deep visual representations in computer vision.