We consider the problem of streaming kernel regression, when the observations arrive sequentially and the goal is to recover the underlying mean function, assumed to belong to an RKHS. The variance of the noise is not assumed to be known. In this context, we tackle the problem of tuning the regularization parameter adaptively at each time step, while maintaining tight confidence bounds estimates on the value of the mean function at each point. To this end, we first generalize existing results for finite-dimensional linear regression with fixed regularization and known variance to the kernel setup with a regularization parameter allowed to be a measurable function of past observations. Then, using appropriate self-normalized inequalities we build upper and lower bound estimates for the variance, leading to Bersntein-like concentration bounds. The later is used in order to define the adaptive regularization. The bounds resulting from our technique are valid uniformly over all observation points and all time steps, and are compared against the literature with numerical experiments. Finally, the potential of these tools is illustrated by an application to kernelized bandits, where we revisit the Kernel UCB and Kernel Thompson Sampling procedures, and show the benefits of the novel adaptive kernel tuning strategy.
Theorem extends the self-normalized bounds of @cite_7 from the setting of linear function spaces to that of an RKHS with sub-Gaussian noise. Based on a nontrivial adaptation of the Laplace method, it yields self-normalized inequalities in a setting of possibly infinite dimension. It generalizes the following result of @cite_6 to kernel regression with @math , which was already a generalization of a previous result by @cite_1 for bounded noise. It is also more general than the concentration result from @cite_3 , for kernel regression with @math , which holds .
@cite_3 @cite_1 @cite_6 @cite_7
2950238385 2951665052 2133104104 2119738618
We tackle the problem of online reward maximisation over a large finite set of actions described by their contexts. We focus on the case when the number of actions is too big to sample all of them even once. However we assume that we have access to the similarities between actions' contexts and that the expected reward is an arbitrary linear function of the contexts' images in the related reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). We propose KernelUCB, a kernelised UCB algorithm, and give a cumulative regret bound through a frequentist analysis. For contextual bandits, the related algorithm GP-UCB turns out to be a special case of our algorithm, and our finite-time analysis improves the regret bound of GP-UCB for the agnostic case, both in the terms of the kernel-dependent quantity and the RKHS norm of the reward function. Moreover, for the linear kernel, our regret bound matches the lower bound for contextual linear bandits. Many applications require optimizing an unknown, noisy function that is expensive to evaluate. We formalize this task as a multi-armed bandit problem, where the payoff function is either sampled from a Gaussian process (GP) or has low RKHS norm. We resolve the important open problem of deriving regret bounds for this setting, which imply novel convergence rates for GP optimization. We analyze GP-UCB, an intuitive upper-confidence based algorithm, and bound its cumulative regret in terms of maximal information gain, establishing a novel connection between GP optimization and experimental design. Moreover, by bounding the latter in terms of operator spectra, we obtain explicit sublinear regret bounds for many commonly used covariance functions. In some important cases, our bounds have surprisingly weak dependence on the dimensionality. In our experiments on real sensor data, GP-UCB compares favorably with other heuristical GP optimization approaches. Bayesian optimisation has gained great popularity as a tool for optimising the parameters of machine learning algorithms and models. Somewhat ironically, setting up the hyper-parameters of Bayesian optimisation methods is notoriously hard. While reasonable practical solutions have been advanced, they can often fail to find the best optima. Surprisingly, there is little theoretical analysis of this crucial problem in the literature. To address this, we derive a cumulative regret bound for Bayesian optimisation with Gaussian processes and unknown kernel hyper-parameters in the stochastic setting. The bound, which applies to the expected improvement acquisition function and sub-Gaussian observation noise, provides us with guidelines on how to design hyper-parameter estimation methods. A simple simulation demonstrates the importance of following these guidelines. We improve the theoretical analysis and empirical performance of algorithms for the stochastic multi-armed bandit problem and the linear stochastic multi-armed bandit problem. In particular, we show that a simple modification of Auer's UCB algorithm (Auer, 2002) achieves with high probability constant regret. More importantly, we modify and, consequently, improve the analysis of the algorithm for the for linear stochastic bandit problem studied by Auer (2002), (2008), Rusmevichientong and Tsitsiklis (2010), (2010). Our modification improves the regret bound by a logarithmic factor, though experiments show a vast improvement. In both cases, the improvement stems from the construction of smaller confidence sets. For their construction we use a novel tail inequality for vector-valued martingales.