Understanding the intentions of drivers at intersections is a critical component for autonomous vehicles. Urban intersections that do not have traffic signals are a common epicentre of highly variable vehicle movement and interactions. We present a method for predicting driver intent at urban intersections through multi-modal trajectory prediction with uncertainty. Our method is based on recurrent neural networks combined with a mixture density network output layer. To consolidate the multi-modal nature of the output probability distribution, we introduce a clustering algorithm that extracts the set of possible paths that exist in the prediction output, and ranks them according to likelihood. To verify the method's performance and generalizability, we present a real-world dataset that consists of over 23,000 vehicles traversing five different intersections, collected using a vehicle mounted Lidar based tracking system. An array of metrics is used to demonstrate the performance of the model against several baselines.
This technique has been used to predict pedestrian intention, as this movement is very non-linear and is significantly influenced by the movement of surrounding pedestrians. A model that incorporates a social-pooling' layer to explain this interaction is presented by Alahi et. al @cite_20 , which produces a path proposal with uncertainty. A similar technique is proposed by @cite_28 , however they only use the RNNs to encode the history information, and choose to use a fully connected layer to output a set of velocities that represent the predicted path. Recently this technique has been extended to predicting the trajectory of vehicles on US highway 101 and interstate 80 in the NGSIM dataset. @cite_10 use social pooling layers to encode data about surrounding vehicles on a highway, and predict various path proposals based on a maneuver classification.
@cite_28 @cite_10 @cite_20
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This paper reports on a data-driven, interaction-aware motion prediction approach for pedestrians in environments cluttered with static obstacles. When navigating in such workspaces shared with humans, robots need accurate motion predictions of the surrounding pedestrians. Human navigation behavior is mostly influenced by their surrounding pedestrians and by the static obstacles in their vicinity. In this paper we introduce a new model based on Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks, which is able to learn human motion behavior from demonstrated data. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first approach using LSTMs, that incorporates both static obstacles and surrounding pedestrians for trajectory forecasting. As part of the model, we introduce a new way of encoding surrounding pedestrians based on a 1d-grid in polar angle space. We evaluate the benefit of interaction-aware motion prediction and the added value of incorporating static obstacles on both simulation and real-world datasets by comparing with state-of-the-art approaches. The results show, that our new approach outperforms the other approaches while being very computationally efficient and that taking into account static obstacles for motion predictions significantly improves the prediction accuracy, especially in cluttered environments. Forecasting the motion of surrounding vehicles is a critical ability for an autonomous vehicle deployed in complex traffic. Motion of all vehicles in a scene is governed by the traffic context, i.e., the motion and relative spatial configuration of neighboring vehicles. In this paper we propose an LSTM encoder-decoder model that uses convolutional social pooling as an improvement to social pooling layers for robustly learning interdependencies in vehicle motion. Additionally, our model outputs a multi-modal predictive distribution over future trajectories based on maneuver classes. We evaluate our model using the publicly available NGSIM US-101 and I-80 datasets. Our results show improvement over the state of the art in terms of RMS values of prediction error and negative log-likelihoods of true future trajectories under the model's predictive distribution. We also present a qualitative analysis of the model's predicted distributions for various traffic scenarios. Pedestrians follow different trajectories to avoid obstacles and accommodate fellow pedestrians. Any autonomous vehicle navigating such a scene should be able to foresee the future positions of pedestrians and accordingly adjust its path to avoid collisions. This problem of trajectory prediction can be viewed as a sequence generation task, where we are interested in predicting the future trajectory of people based on their past positions. Following the recent success of Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) models for sequence prediction tasks, we propose an LSTM model which can learn general human movement and predict their future trajectories. This is in contrast to traditional approaches which use hand-crafted functions such as Social forces. We demonstrate the performance of our method on several public datasets. Our model outperforms state-of-the-art methods on some of these datasets. We also analyze the trajectories predicted by our model to demonstrate the motion behaviour learned by our model.