With the growth of user-generated content, we observe the constant rise of the number of companies, such as search engines, content aggregators, etc., that operate with tremendous amounts of web content not being the services hosting it. Thus, aiming to locate the most important content and promote it to the users, they face the need of estimating the current and predicting the future content popularity. In this paper, we approach the problem of video popularity prediction not from the side of a video hosting service, as done in all previous studies, but from the side of an operating company, which provides a popular video search service that aggregates content from different video hosting websites. We investigate video popularity prediction based on features from three primary sources available for a typical operating company: first, the content hosting provider may deliver its data via its API, second, the operating company makes use of its own search and browsing logs, third, the company crawls information about embeds of a video and links to a video page from publicly available resources on the Web. We show that video popularity prediction based on the embed and link data coupled with the internal search and browsing data significantly improves video popularity prediction based only on the data provided by the video hosting and can even adequately replace the API data in the cases when it is partly or completely unavailable.
The usefulness of content popularity prediction for search engines was discussed in @cite_29 @cite_16 @cite_9 where the prediction quality was estimated with ranking metrics for popularity of news articles and published jokes. Hence, in our study, we also evaluate the performance of our predictors by means of NDCG (one of the most popular ranking metrics @cite_22 ).
@cite_9 @cite_29 @cite_16 @cite_22
2061069417 2056832611 2091317512 2069870183
News articles are an engaging type of online content that captures the attention of a significant amount of Internet users. They are particularly enjoyed by mobile users and massively spread through online social platforms. As a result, there is an increased interest in discovering the articles that will become popular among users. This objective falls under the broad scope of content popularity prediction and has direct implications in the development of new services for online advertisement and content distribution. In this paper, we address the problem of predicting the popularity of news articles based on user comments. We formulate the prediction task as a ranking problem, where the goal is not to infer the precise attention that a content will receive but to accurately rank articles based on their predicted popularity. Using data obtained from two important news sites in France and Netherlands, we analyze the ranking effectiveness of two prediction models. Our results indicate that popularity prediction methods are adequate solutions for this ranking task and could be considered as a valuable alternative for automatic online news ranking. News articles are a captivating type of online content that capture a significant amount of Internet users' interest. They are particularly consumed by mobile users and extremely diffused through online social platforms. As a result, there is an increased interest in promptly identifying the articles that will receive a significant amount of user attention. This task falls under the broad scope of content popularity prediction and has direct implications in various contexts such as caching strategies or online advertisement policies. In this paper we address the problem of predicting the popularity of news articles based on user comments. We formulate the prediction task into a ranking problem where the goal is not to infer the precise attention that a content will receive but to accurately rank articles based on their predicted popularity. To this end, we analyze the ranking performance of three prediction models using a dataset of articles covering a four-year period and published by 20minutes.fr, an important French online news platform. Our results indicate that prediction methods improve the ranking performance and we observed that for our dataset a simple linear prediction method outperforms more dedicated prediction methods. Prediction of popular items in online content sharing systems has recently attracted a lot of attention due to the tremendous need of users and its commercial values. Different from previous works that make prediction by fitting a popularity growth model, we tackle this problem by exploiting the latent conforming and maverick personalities of those who vote to assess the quality of on-line items. We argue that the former personality prompts a user to cast her vote conforming to the majority of the service community while on the contrary the later personality makes her vote different from the community. We thus propose a Conformer-Maverick (CM) model to simulate the voting process and use it to rank top-k potentially popular items based on the early votes they received. Through an extensive experimental evaluation, we validate our ideas and find that our proposed CM model achieves better performance than baseline solutions, especially for smaller k. Modern large retrieval environments tend to overwhelm their users by their large output. Since all documents are not of equal relevance to their users, highly relevant documents should be identified and ranked first for presentation. In order to develop IR techniques in this direction, it is necessary to develop evaluation approaches and methods that credit IR methods for their ability to retrieve highly relevant documents. This can be done by extending traditional evaluation methods, that is, recall and precision based on binary relevance judgments, to graded relevance judgments. Alternatively, novel measures based on graded relevance judgments may be developed. This article proposes several novel measures that compute the cumulative gain the user obtains by examining the retrieval result up to a given ranked position. The first one accumulates the relevance scores of retrieved documents along the ranked result list. The second one is similar but applies a discount factor to the relevance scores in order to devaluate late-retrieved documents. The third one computes the relative-to-the-ideal performance of IR techniques, based on the cumulative gain they are able to yield. These novel measures are defined and discussed and their use is demonstrated in a case study using TREC data: sample system run results for 20 queries in TREC-7. As a relevance base we used novel graded relevance judgments on a four-point scale. The test results indicate that the proposed measures credit IR methods for their ability to retrieve highly relevant documents and allow testing of statistical significance of effectiveness differences. The graphs based on the measures also provide insight into the performance IR techniques and allow interpretation, for example, from the user point of view.