In this work, we ask two questions: 1. Can we predict the type of community interested in a news article using only features from the article content? and 2. How well do these models generalize over time? To answer these questions, we compute well-studied content-based features on over 60K news articles from 4 communities on reddit.com. We train and test models over three different time periods between 2015 and 2017 to demonstrate which features degrade in performance the most due to concept drift. Our models can classify news articles into communities with high accuracy, ranging from 0.81 ROC AUC to 1.0 ROC AUC. However, while we can predict the community-specific popularity of news articles with high accuracy, practitioners should approach these models carefully. Predictions are both community-pair dependent and feature group dependent. Moreover, these feature groups generalize over time differently, with some only degrading slightly over time, but others degrading greatly. Therefore, we recommend that community-interest predictions are done in a hierarchical structure, where multiple binary classifiers can be used to separate community pairs, rather than a traditional multi-class model. Second, these models should be retrained over time based on accuracy goals and the availability of training data.
There are many prior works on general news popularity. The majority of these works use and develop content-based features to capture popularity, such as headline features @cite_11 @cite_22 or body content @cite_10 . However, others have based predictions on other signals such as users comments @cite_3 and early popularity @cite_0 @cite_5 @cite_13 . Even more general, there is a large body of work on content popularity prediction, not focused on news articles. These works include predicting the popularity of comments on Reddit @cite_1 @cite_25 , predicting the popularity of tweets or hashtags on Twitter @cite_30 @cite_26 , and predicting the popularity of videos @cite_20 @cite_13 .
@cite_13 @cite_30 @cite_26 @cite_22 @cite_1 @cite_3 @cite_0 @cite_5 @cite_10 @cite_25 @cite_20 @cite_11
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Because of Twitter’s popularity and the viral nature of information dissemination on Twitter, predicting which Twitter topics will become popular in the near future becomes a task of considerable economic importance. Many Twitter topics are annotated by hashtags. In this article, we propose methods to predict the popularity of new hashtags on Twitter by formulating the problem as a classification task. We use five standard classification models (i.e., Naive bayes, k-nearest neighbors, decision trees, support vector machines, and logistic regression) for prediction. The main challenge is the identification of effective features for describing new hashtags. We extract 7 content features from a hashtag string and the collection of tweets containing the hashtag and 11 contextual features from the social graph formed by users who have adopted the hashtag. We conducted experiments on a Twitter data set consisting of 31 million tweets from 2 million Singapore-based users. The experimental results show that the standard classifiers using the extracted features significantly outperform the baseline methods that do not use these features. Among the five classifiers, the logistic regression model performs the best in terms of the Micro-F1 measure. We also observe that contextual features are more effective than content features. Increasingly people form opinions based on information they consume on online social media. As a result, it is crucial to understand what type of content attracts people's attention on social media and drive discussions. In this paper we focus on online discussions. Can we predict which comments and what content gets the highest attention in an online discussion? How does this content differ from community to community? To accomplish this, we undertake a unique study of Reddit involving a large sample comments from 11 popular subreddits with different properties. We introduce a large number of sentiment, relevance, content analysis features including some novel features customized to reddit. Through a comparative analysis of the chosen subreddits, we show that our models are correctly able to retrieve top replies under a post with great precision. In addition, we explain our findings with a detailed analysis of what distinguishes high scoring posts in different communities that differ along the dimensions of the specificity of topic and style, audience and level of moderation. Understanding user participation is fundamental in anticipating the popularity of online content. In this paper, we explore how the number of users' comments during a short observation period after publication can be used to predict the expected popularity of articles published by a countrywide online newspaper. We evaluate a simple linear prediction model on a real dataset of hundreds of thousands of articles and several millions of comments collected over a period of four years. Analyzing the accuracy of our proposed model for different values of its basic parameters we provide valuable insights on the potentials and limitations for predicting content popularity based on early user activity. In this paper, we propose a methodology to predict the popularity of online contents. More precisely, rather than trying to infer the popularity of a content itself, we infer the likelihood that a content will be popular. Our approach is rooted in survival analysis where predicting the precise lifetime of an individual is very hard and almost impossible but predicting the likelihood of one's survival longer than a threshold or another individual is possible. We position ourselves in the standpoint of an external observer who has to infer the popularity of a content only using publicly observable metrics, such as the lifetime of a thread, the number of comments, and the number of views. Our goal is to infer these observable metrics, using a set of explanatory factors, such as the number of comments and the number of links in the first hours after the content publication, which are observable by the external observer. We use a Cox proportional hazard regression model that divides the distribution function of the observable popularity metric into two components: a) one that can be explained by the given set of explanatory factors (called risk factors) and b) a baseline distribution function that integrates all the factors not taken into account. To validate our proposed approach, we use data sets from two different online discussion forums: dpreview.com, one of the largest online discussion groups providing news and discussion forums about all kinds of digital cameras, and myspace.com, one of the representative online social networking services. On these two data sets we model two different popularity metrics, the lifetime of threads and the number of comments, and show that our approach can predict the lifetime of threads from Dpreview (Myspace) by observing a thread during the first 5 6 days (24 hours, respectively) and the number of comments of Dpreview threads by observing a thread during first 2 3 days. Today, users are reading the news through social platforms. These platforms are built to facilitate crowd engagement, but not necessarily disseminate useful news to inform the masses. Hence, the news that is highly engaged with may not be the news that best informs. While predicting news popularity has been well studied, it has not been studied in the context of crowd manipulations. In this paper, we provide some preliminary results to a longer term project on crowd and platform manipulations of news and news popularity. In particular, we choose to study known features for predicting news popularity and how those features may change on this http URL, a social platform used commonly for news aggregation. Along with this, we explore ways in which users can alter the perception of news through changing the title of an article. We find that news on reddit is predictable using previously studied sentiment and content features and that posts with titles changed by reddit users tend to be more popular than posts with the original article title. Popularity prediction, with both technological and economic importance, has been extensively studied for conventional video sharing sites (VSSes), where the videos are mainly found via searching, browsing, or related links. Recent statistics however suggest that online social network (OSN) users regularly share video contents from VSSes, which has contributed to a significant portion of the accesses; yet the popularity prediction in this new context remains largely unexplored. In this paper, we present an initial study on the popularity prediction of videos propagated in OSNs along friendship links. We conduct a large-scale measurement and analysis of viewing patterns of videos shared in one of largest OSNs in China, and examine the performance of typical views-based prediction models. We find that they are generally ineffective, if not totally fail, especially when predicting the early peaks and later bursts of accesses, which are common during video propagations in OSNs. To overcome these limits, we track the propagation process of videos shared in a Facebook-like OSN in China, and analyze the user viewing and sharing behaviors. We accordingly develop a novel propagation-based video popularity prediction solution, namely SoVP. Instead of relying solely on the early views for prediction, SoVP considers both the intrinsic attractiveness of a video and the influence from the underlying propagation structure. The effectiveness of SoVP, particularly for predicting the peaks and bursts, have been validated through our trace-driven experiments. Social media like Facebook or Twitter have become an entry point to news for many readers. In that scenario, the headline is the most prominent – and often the only visible – part of the news article. We propose a novel task of using only headlines to predict the popularity of news articles. The prediction model is evaluated on headlines from two major broadsheet news outlets – The Guardian and New York Times. We significantly improve over several baselines, noting differences in the model performance between Facebook and Twitter.