Multiple hypothesis testing is a core problem in statistical inference and arises in almost every scientific field. Given a set of null hypotheses @math , Benjamini and Hochberg introduced the false discovery rate (FDR), which is the expected proportion of false positives among rejected null hypotheses, and proposed a testing procedure that controls FDR below a pre-assigned significance level. Nowadays FDR is the criterion of choice for large scale multiple hypothesis testing. In this paper we consider the problem of controlling FDR in an "online manner". Concretely, we consider an ordered --possibly infinite-- sequence of null hypotheses @math where, at each step @math , the statistician must decide whether to reject hypothesis @math having access only to the previous decisions. This model was introduced by Foster and Stine. We study a class of "generalized alpha-investing" procedures and prove that any rule in this class controls online FDR, provided @math -values corresponding to true nulls are independent from the other @math -values. (Earlier work only established mFDR control.) Next, we obtain conditions under which generalized alpha-investing controls FDR in the presence of general @math -values dependencies. Finally, we develop a modified set of procedures that also allow to control the false discovery exceedance (the tail of the proportion of false discoveries). Numerical simulations and analytical results indicate that online procedures do not incur a large loss in statistical power with respect to offline approaches, such as Benjamini-Hochberg.
There has been significant interest over the last two years in developing hypothesis testing procedures for high-dimensional regression, especially in conjunction with sparsity-seeking methods. Procedures for computing @math -values of low-dimensional coordinates were developed in @cite_0 @cite_20 @cite_7 @cite_27 @cite_17 . Sequential and selective inference methods were proposed in @cite_22 @cite_1 @cite_29 . Methods to control FDR were put forward in @cite_37 @cite_30 .
@cite_30 @cite_37 @cite_22 @cite_7 @cite_29 @cite_1 @cite_0 @cite_27 @cite_20 @cite_17
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We introduce a new estimator for the vector of coecients in the linear model y = X +z, where X has dimensions n p with p possibly larger than n. SLOPE, short for Sorted L-One Penalized Estimation, is the solution to In many fields of science, we observe a response variable together with a large number of potential explanatory variables, and would like to be able to discover which variables are truly associated with the response. At the same time, we need to know that the false discovery rate (FDR) - the expected fraction of false discoveries among all discoveries - is not too high, in order to assure the scientist that most of the discoveries are indeed true and replicable. This paper introduces the knockoff filter, a new variable selection procedure controlling the FDR in the statistical linear model whenever there are at least as many observations as variables. This method achieves exact FDR control in finite sample settings no matter the design or covariates, the number of variables in the model, or the amplitudes of the unknown regression coefficients, and does not require any knowledge of the noise level. As the name suggests, the method operates by manufacturing knockoff variables that are cheap - their construction does not require any new data - and are designed to mimic the correlation structure found within the existing variables, in a way that allows for accurate FDR control, beyond what is possible with permutation-based methods. The method of knockoffs is very general and flexible, and can work with a broad class of test statistics. We test the method in combination with statistics from the Lasso for sparse regression, and obtain empirical results showing that the resulting method has far more power than existing selection rules when the proportion of null variables is high. Fitting high-dimensional statistical models often requires the use of non-linear parameter estimation procedures. As a consequence, it is generally impossible to obtain an exact characterization of the probability distribution of the parameter estimates. This in turn implies that it is extremely challenging to quantify the uncertainty associated with a certain parameter estimate. Concretely, no commonly accepted procedure exists for computing classical measures of uncertainty and statistical significance as confidence intervals or p- values for these models. We consider here high-dimensional linear regression problem, and propose an efficient algorithm for constructing confidence intervals and p-values. The resulting confidence intervals have nearly optimal size. When testing for the null hypothesis that a certain parameter is vanishing, our method has nearly optimal power. Our approach is based on constructing a 'de-biased' version of regularized M-estimators. The new construction improves over recent work in the field in that it does not assume a special structure on the design matrix. We test our method on synthetic data and a high-throughput genomic data set about riboflavin production rate, made publicly available by (2014). We propose new inference tools for forward stepwise regression, least angle regression, and the lasso. Assuming a Gaussian model for the observation vector y, we first describe a general scheme to perform valid inference after any selection event that can be characterized as y falling into a polyhedral set. This framework allows us to derive conditional (post-selection) hypothesis tests at any step of forward stepwise or least angle regression, or any step along the lasso regularization path, because, as it turns out, selection events for these procedures can be expressed as polyhedral constraints on y. The p-values associated with these tests are exactly uniform under the null distribution, in finite samples, yielding exact type I error control. The tests can also be inverted to produce confidence intervals for appropriate underlying regression parameters. The R package "selectiveInference", freely available on the CRAN repository, implements the new inference tools described in this paper. To perform inference after model selection, we propose controlling the selective type I error; i.e., the error rate of a test given that it was performed. By doing so, we recover long-run frequency properties among selected hypotheses analogous to those that apply in the classical (non-adaptive) context. Our proposal is closely related to data splitting and has a similar intuitive justification, but is more powerful. Exploiting the classical theory of Lehmann We consider the problem of fitting the parameters of a high-dimensional linear regression model. In the regime where the number of parameters @math is comparable to or exceeds the sample size @math , a successful approach uses an @math -penalized least squares estimator, known as Lasso. Unfortunately, unlike for linear estimators (e.g., ordinary least squares), no well-established method exists to compute confidence intervals or p-values on the basis of the Lasso estimator. Very recently, a line of work javanmard2013hypothesis, confidenceJM, GBR-hypothesis has addressed this problem by constructing a debiased version of the Lasso estimator. In this paper, we study this approach for random design model, under the assumption that a good estimator exists for the precision matrix of the design. Our analysis improves over the state of the art in that it establishes nearly optimal testing power if the sample size @math asymptotically dominates @math , with @math being the sparsity level (number of non-zero coefficients). Earlier work obtains provable guarantees only for much larger sample size, namely it requires @math to asymptotically dominate @math . In particular, for random designs with a sparse precision matrix we show that an estimator thereof having the required properties can be computed efficiently. Finally, we evaluate this approach on synthetic data and compare it with earlier proposals.