Time series prediction has been studied in a variety of domains. However, it is still challenging to predict future series given historical observations and past exogenous data. Existing methods either fail to consider the interactions among different components of exogenous variables which may affect the prediction accuracy, or cannot model the correlations between exogenous data and target data. Besides, the inherent temporal dynamics of exogenous data are also related to the target series prediction, and thus should be considered as well. To address these issues, we propose an end-to-end deep learning model, i.e., Hierarchical attention-based Recurrent Highway Network (HRHN), which incorporates spatio-temporal feature extraction of exogenous variables and temporal dynamics modeling of target variables into a single framework. Moreover, by introducing the hierarchical attention mechanism, HRHN can adaptively select the relevant exogenous features in different semantic levels. We carry out comprehensive empirical evaluations with various methods over several datasets, and show that HRHN outperforms the state of the arts in time series prediction, especially in capturing sudden changes and sudden oscillations of time series.
RNNs @cite_14 @cite_16 are a class of neural networks that are naturally suited for modeling time series data @cite_18 @cite_19 . The NARX-RNN @cite_20 model combines the capability of capturing nonlinear relationships by RNN with the effectiveness of gradient learning by NARX. However, traditional RNNs suffer from the issues of gradient vanishing and error propagation when learning long-term dependencies @cite_26 . Therefore, special gating mechanisms that control access to memory cells have been developed, such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) @cite_15 and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) @cite_6 , which have already been used to perform time series predictions @cite_13 @cite_29 @cite_17 . Moreover, the MIST-RNN @cite_0 model has been developed based on a gating mechanism that is similar to GRU. This model makes the gradient decay's exponent closer to zero by using the mixed historical inputs. Although MIST-RNN can capture the long-term dependencies well, it does not consider the temporal behaviors of exogenous variables that may affect the dynamic properties of the observation data.
@cite_18 @cite_14 @cite_26 @cite_29 @cite_6 @cite_0 @cite_19 @cite_15 @cite_16 @cite_13 @cite_20 @cite_17
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In this paper three problems for a connectionist account of language are considered: 1. What is the nature of linguistic representations? 2. How can complex structural relationships such as constituent structure be represented? 3. How can the apparently open-ended nature of language be accommodated by a fixed-resource system? Using a prediction task, a simple recurrent network (SRN) is trained on multiclausal sentences which contain multiply-embedded relative clauses. Principal component analysis of the hidden unit activation patterns reveals that the network solves the task by developing complex distributed representations which encode the relevant grammatical relations and hierarchical constituent structure. Differences between the SRN state representations and the more traditional pushdown store are discussed in the final section. Ability of deep networks to extract high level features and of recurrent networks to perform time-series inference have been studied. In view of universality of one hidden layer network at approximating functions under weak constraints, the benefit of multiple layers is to enlarge the space of dynamical systems approximated or, given the space, reduce the number of units required for a certain error. Traditionally shallow networks with manually engineered features are used, back-propagation extent is limited to one and attempt to choose a large number of hidden units to satisfy the Markov condition is made. In case of Markov models, it has been shown that many systems need to be modeled as higher order. In the present work, we present deep recurrent networks with longer backpropagation through time extent as a solution to modeling systems that are high order and to predicting ahead. We study epileptic seizure suppression electro-stimulator. Extraction of manually engineered complex features and prediction employing them has not allowed small low-power implementations as, to avoid possibility of surgery, extraction of any features that may be required has to be included. In this solution, a recurrent neural network performs both feature extraction and prediction. We prove analytically that adding hidden layers or increasing backpropagation extent increases the rate of decrease of approximation error. A Dynamic Programming (DP) training procedure employing matrix operations is derived. DP and use of matrix operations makes the procedure efficient particularly when using data-parallel computing. The simulation studies show the geometry of the parameter space, that the network learns the temporal structure, that parameters converge while model output displays same dynamic behavior as the system and greater than .99 Average Detection Rate on all real seizure data tried. In this paper we compare different types of recurrent units in recurrent neural networks (RNNs). Especially, we focus on more sophisticated units that implement a gating mechanism, such as a long short-term memory (LSTM) unit and a recently proposed gated recurrent unit (GRU). We evaluate these recurrent units on the tasks of polyphonic music modeling and speech signal modeling. Our experiments revealed that these advanced recurrent units are indeed better than more traditional recurrent units such as tanh units. Also, we found GRU to be comparable to LSTM. Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) have achieved state-of-the-art performance on many diverse tasks, from machine translation to surgical activity recognition, yet training RNNs to capture long-term dependencies remains difficult. To date, the vast majority of successful RNN architectures alleviate this problem using nearly-additive connections between states, as introduced by long short-term memory (LSTM). We take an orthogonal approach and introduce MIST RNNs, a NARX RNN architecture that allows direct connections from the very distant past. We show that MIST RNNs 1) exhibit superior vanishing-gradient properties in comparison to LSTM and previously-proposed NARX RNNs; 2) are far more efficient than previously-proposed NARX RNN architectures, requiring even fewer computations than LSTM; and 3) improve performance substantially over LSTM and Clockwork RNNs on tasks requiring very long-term dependencies. Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) are very powerful sequence models that do not enjoy widespread use because it is extremely difficult to train them properly. Fortunately, recent advances in Hessian-free optimization have been able to overcome the difficulties associated with training RNNs, making it possible to apply them successfully to challenging sequence problems. In this paper we demonstrate the power of RNNs trained with the new Hessian-Free optimizer (HF) by applying them to character-level language modeling tasks. The standard RNN architecture, while effective, is not ideally suited for such tasks, so we introduce a new RNN variant that uses multiplicative (or "gated") connections which allow the current input character to determine the transition matrix from one hidden state vector to the next. After training the multiplicative RNN with the HF optimizer for five days on 8 high-end Graphics Processing Units, we were able to surpass the performance of the best previous single method for character-level language modeling – a hierarchical non-parametric sequence model. To our knowledge this represents the largest recurrent neural network application to date. We describe a new learning procedure, back-propagation, for networks of neurone-like units. The procedure repeatedly adjusts the weights of the connections in the network so as to minimize a measure of the difference between the actual output vector of the net and the desired output vector. As a result of the weight adjustments, internal ‘hidden’ units which are not part of the input or output come to represent important features of the task domain, and the regularities in the task are captured by the interactions of these units. The ability to create useful new features distinguishes back-propagation from earlier, simpler methods such as the perceptron-convergence procedure1. One of the challenges in modeling cognitive events from electroencephalogram (EEG) data is finding representations that are invariant to inter- and intra-subject differences, as well as to inherent noise associated with such data. Herein, we propose a novel approach for learning such representations from multi-channel EEG time-series, and demonstrate its advantages in the context of mental load classification task. First, we transform EEG activities into a sequence of topology-preserving multi-spectral images, as opposed to standard EEG analysis techniques that ignore such spatial information. Next, we train a deep recurrent-convolutional network inspired by state-of-the-art video classification to learn robust representations from the sequence of images. The proposed approach is designed to preserve the spatial, spectral, and temporal structure of EEG which leads to finding features that are less sensitive to variations and distortions within each dimension. Empirical evaluation on the cognitive load classification task demonstrated significant improvements in classification accuracy over current state-of-the-art approaches in this field. It has previously been shown that gradient-descent learning algorithms for recurrent neural networks can perform poorly on tasks that involve long-term dependencies, i.e. those problems for which the desired output depends on inputs presented at times far in the past. We show that the long-term dependencies problem is lessened for a class of architectures called nonlinear autoregressive models with exogenous (NARX) recurrent neural networks, which have powerful representational capabilities. We have previously reported that gradient descent learning can be more effective in NARX networks than in recurrent neural network architectures that have "hidden states" on problems including grammatical inference and nonlinear system identification. Typically, the network converges much faster and generalizes better than other networks. The results in this paper are consistent with this phenomenon. We present some experimental results which show that NARX networks can often retain information for two to three times as long as conventional recurrent neural networks. We show that although NARX networks do not circumvent the problem of long-term dependencies, they can greatly improve performance on long-term dependency problems. We also describe in detail some of the assumptions regarding what it means to latch information robustly and suggest possible ways to loosen these assumptions. The goal of precipitation nowcasting is to predict the future rainfall intensity in a local region over a relatively short period of time. Very few previous studies have examined this crucial and challenging weather forecasting problem from the machine learning perspective. In this paper, we formulate precipitation nowcasting as a spatiotemporal sequence forecasting problem in which both the input and the prediction target are spatiotemporal sequences. By extending the fully connected LSTM (FC-LSTM) to have convolutional structures in both the input-to-state and state-to-state transitions, we propose the convolutional LSTM (ConvLSTM) and use it to build an end-to-end trainable model for the precipitation nowcasting problem. Experiments show that our ConvLSTM network captures spatiotemporal correlations better and consistently outperforms FC-LSTM and the state-of-the-art operational ROVER algorithm for precipitation nowcasting.