The social Web is transforming the way information is created and distributed. Blog authoring tools enable users to publish content, while sites such as Digg and Del.icio.us are used to distribute content to a wider audience. With content fast becoming a commodity, interest in using social networks to promote and find content has grown, both on the side of content producers (viral marketing) and consumers (recommendation). Here we study the role of social networks in promoting content on Digg, a social news aggregator that allows users to submit links to and vote on news stories. Digg's goal is to feature the most interesting stories on its front page, and it aggregates opinions of its many users to identify them. Like other social networking sites, Digg allows users to designate other users as friends'' and see what stories they found interesting. We studied the spread of interest in news stories submitted to Digg in June 2006. Our results suggest that pattern of the spread of interest in a story on the network is indicative of how popular the story will become. Stories that spread mainly outside of the submitter's neighborhood go on to be very popular, while stories that spread mainly through submitter's social neighborhood prove not to be very popular. This effect is visible already in the early stages of voting, and one can make a prediction about the potential audience of a story simply by analyzing where the initial votes come from.
Other researchers have used Digg's trove of empirical data to study dynamics of voting. Wu and Huberman @cite_1 found that interest in a story peaks when the story first hits the front page, and then decays with time, with a half-life of about a day. Their study is complementary to ours, as they studied dynamics of stories they hit the front page. Also, they do not identify a mechanism for the spread of interest in a story. We, on the other hand, propose, and empirically study, social networks as a mechanism for the spread of interest in a story. Crane and Sornette @cite_14 analyzed a large number of videos posted on YouTube. By looking at the dynamics of the number of votes received by the videos, they found that they could identify high quality videos, whether they were selected by YouTube editors, or spontaneously became popular. Like Wu and Huberman, they looked at aggregate statistics, not the microscopic dynamics of the spread of interest in stories.
@cite_14 @cite_1
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With the rise of web 2.0 there is an ever-expanding source of interesting media because of the proliferation of usergenerated content. However, mixed in with this is a large amount of noise that creates a proverbial “needle in the haystack” when searching for relevant content. Although there is hope that the rich network of interwoven metadata may contain enough structure to eventually help sift through this noise, currently many sites serve up only the “most popular” things. Identifying only the most popular items can be useful, but doing so fails to take into account the famous “long tail” behavior of the web—the notion that the collective effect of small, niche interests can outweigh the market share of the few blockbuster (i.e. most-popular) items—thus providing only content that has mass appeal and masking the interests of the idiosyncratic many. YouTube, for example, hosts over 40 million videos— enough content to keep one occupied for more than 200 years. Are there intelligent tools to search through this information-rich environment and identify interesting and relevant content? Is there a way to identify emerging trends or “hot topics” in addition to indexing the long tail for content that has real value? The subject of collective attention is central to an information age where millions of people are inundated with daily messages. It is thus of interest to understand how attention to novel items propagates and eventually fades among large populations. We have analyzed the dynamics of collective attention among 1 million users of an interactive web site, digg.com, devoted to thousands of novel news stories. The observations can be described by a dynamical model characterized by a single novelty factor. Our measurements indicate that novelty within groups decays with a stretched-exponential law, suggesting the existence of a natural time scale over which attention fades.