The computational costs of inference and planning have confined Bayesian model-based reinforcement learning to one of two dismal fates: powerful Bayes-adaptive planning but only for simplistic models, or powerful, Bayesian non-parametric models but using simple, myopic planning strategies such as Thompson sampling. We ask whether it is feasible and truly beneficial to combine rich probabilistic models with a closer approximation to fully Bayesian planning. First, we use a collection of counterexamples to show formal problems with the over-optimism inherent in Thompson sampling. Then we leverage state-of-the-art techniques in efficient Bayes-adaptive planning and non-parametric Bayesian methods to perform qualitatively better than both existing conventional algorithms and Thompson sampling on two contextual bandit-like problems.
In @cite_15 , Gaussian Processes (GPs) are employed to infer models of the dynamics from limited data, with excellent empirical performance. However, the uncertainty that the GP captures was not explicitly used for exploration-exploitation-sensitive planning. This is addressed in @cite_21 , but with heuristic planning based on uncertainty reduction.
@cite_15 @cite_21
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In this paper, we introduce PILCO, a practical, data-efficient model-based policy search method. PILCO reduces model bias, one of the key problems of model-based reinforcement learning, in a principled way. By learning a probabilistic dynamics model and explicitly incorporating model uncertainty into long-term planning, PILCO can cope with very little data and facilitates learning from scratch in only a few trials. Policy evaluation is performed in closed form using state-of-the-art approximate inference. Furthermore, policy gradients are computed analytically for policy improvement. We report unprecedented learning efficiency on challenging and high-dimensional control tasks. We present an implementation of model-based online reinforcement learning (RL) for continuous domains with deterministic transitions that is specifically designed to achieve low sample complexity. To achieve low sample complexity, since the environment is unknown, an agent must intelligently balance exploration and exploitation, and must be able to rapidly generalize from observations. While in the past a number of related sample efficient RL algorithms have been proposed, to allow theoretical analysis, mainly model-learners with weak generalization capabilities were considered. Here, we separate function approximation in the model learner (which does require samples) from the interpolation in the planner (which does not require samples). For model-learning we apply Gaussian processes regression (GP) which is able to automatically adjust itself to the complexity of the problem (via Bayesian hyperparameter selection) and, in practice, often able to learn a highly accurate model from very little data. In addition, a GP provides a natural way to determine the uncertainty of its predictions, which allows us to implement the "optimism in the face of uncertainty" principle used to efficiently control exploration. Our method is evaluated on four common benchmark domains.