Consider the following estimation problem: there are @math entities, each with an unknown parameter @math , and we observe @math independent random variables, @math , with @math Binomial @math . How accurately can one recover the "histogram" (i.e. cumulative density function) of the @math 's? While the empirical estimates would recover the histogram to earth mover distance @math (equivalently, @math distance between the CDFs), we show that, provided @math is sufficiently large, we can achieve error @math which is information theoretically optimal. We also extend our results to the multi-dimensional parameter case, capturing settings where each member of the population has multiple associated parameters. Beyond the theoretical results, we demonstrate that the recovery algorithm performs well in practice on a variety of datasets, providing illuminating insights into several domains, including politics, sports analytics, and variation in the gender ratio of offspring.
More closely related to the problem considered in this paper is the work on recovering an approximation to the unlabeled of probabilities of domain elements, given independent draws from a distribution of large discrete support (see e.g. @cite_12 @cite_13 @cite_14 @cite_19 @cite_8 ). Instead of learning the distribution, these works considered the alternate goal of simply returning an approximation to the multiset of probabilities with which the domain elements arise but without specifying which element occurs with which probability. Such a multiset can be used to estimate useful properties of the distribution that do not depend on the labels of the domain of the distribution, such as the entropy or support size of the distribution, or the number of elements likely to be observed in a new, larger sample @cite_15 @cite_1 . The benefit of pursuing this weaker goal of returning the unlabeled multiset is that it can be learned to significantly higher accuracy for a given sample size---essentially as accurate as the empirical distribution of a sample that is a logarithmic factor larger @cite_14 @cite_1 .
@cite_14 @cite_8 @cite_1 @cite_19 @cite_15 @cite_13 @cite_12
2127090196 2951753179 2419099043 2762763087 2163450622
We introduce a new approach to characterizing the unobserved portion of a distribution, which provides sublinear--sample estimators achieving arbitrarily small additive constant error for a class of properties that includes entropy and distribution support size. Additionally, we show new matching lower bounds. Together, this settles the longstanding question of the sample complexities of these estimation problems, up to constant factors. Our algorithm estimates these properties up to an arbitrarily small additive constant, using O(n log n) samples, where n is a bound on the support size, or in the case of estimating the support size, 1 n is a lower bound on the probability of any element of the domain. Previously, no explicit sublinear--sample algorithms for either of these problems were known. Our algorithm is also computationally extremely efficient, running in time linear in the number of samples used. In the second half of the paper, we provide a matching lower bound of Ω(n log n) samples for estimating entropy or distribution support size to within an additive constant. The previous lower-bounds on these sample complexities were n 2O(√log n). To show our lower bound, we prove two new and natural multivariate central limit theorems (CLTs); the first uses Stein's method to relate the sum of independent distributions to the multivariate Gaussian of corresponding mean and covariance, under the earthmover distance metric (also known as the Wasserstein metric). We leverage this central limit theorem to prove a stronger but more specific central limit theorem for "generalized multinomial" distributions---a large class of discrete distributions, parameterized by matrices, that represents sums of independent binomial or multinomial distributions, and describes many distributions encountered in computer science. Convergence here is in the strong sense of statistical distance, which immediately implies that any algorithm with input drawn from a generalized multinomial distribution behaves essentially as if the input were drawn from a discretized Gaussian with the same mean and covariance. Such tools in the multivariate setting are rare, and we hope this new tool will be of use to the community. The advent of data science has spurred interest in estimating properties of distributions over large alphabets. Fundamental symmetric properties such as support size, support coverage, entropy, and proximity to uniformity, received most attention, with each property estimated using a different technique and often intricate analysis tools. We prove that for all these properties, a single, simple, plug-in estimator---profile maximum likelihood (PML)---performs as well as the best specialized techniques. This raises the possibility that PML may optimally estimate many other symmetric properties. We consider the following basic learning task: given independent draws from an unknown distribution over a discrete support, output an approximation of the distribution that is as accurate as possible in L1 distance (equivalently, total variation distance, or "statistical distance"). Perhaps surprisingly, it is often possible to "de-noise" the empirical distribution of the samples to return an approximation of the true distribution that is significantly more accurate than the empirical distribution, without relying on any prior assumptions on the distribution. We present an instance optimal learning algorithm which optimally performs this de-noising for every distribution for which such a de-noising is possible. More formally, given n independent draws from a distribution p, our algorithm returns a labelled vector whose expected distance from p is equal to the minimum possible expected error that could be obtained by any algorithm, even one that is given the true unlabeled vector of probabilities of distribution p and simply needs to assign labels---up to an additive subconstant term that is independent of p and goes to zero as n gets large. This somewhat surprising result has several conceptual implications, including the fact that, for any large sample from a distribution over discrete support, prior knowledge of the rates of decay of the tails of the distribution (e.g. power-law type assumptions) is not significantly helpful for the task of learning the distribution. As a consequence of our techniques, we also show that given a set of n samples from an arbitrary distribution, one can accurately estimate the expected number of distinct elements that will be observed in a sample of any size up to n log n. This sort of extrapolation is practically relevant, particularly to domains such as genomics where it is important to understand how much more might be discovered given larger sample sizes, and we are optimistic that our approach is practically viable. We show that a class of statistical properties of distributions, which includes such practically relevant properties as entropy, the number of distinct elements, and distance metrics between pairs of distributions, can be estimated given a sublinear sized sample. Specifically, given a sample consisting of independent draws from any distribution over at most k distinct elements, these properties can be estimated accurately using a sample of size O(k log k). For these estimation tasks, this performance is optimal, to constant factors. Complementing these theoretical results, we also demonstrate that our estimators perform exceptionally well, in practice, for a variety of estimation tasks, on a variety of natural distributions, for a wide range of parameters. The key step in our approach is to first use the sample to characterize the “unseen” portion of the distribution—effectively reconstructing this portion of the distribution as accurately as if one had a logarithmic factor larger sample. This goes beyond such tools as the Good-Turing frequency estimation scheme, which estimates the total probability mass of the unobserved portion of the distribution: We seek to estimate the shape of the unobserved portion of the distribution. This work can be seen as introducing a robust, general, and theoretically principled framework that, for many practical applications, essentially amplifies the sample size by a logarithmic factor; we expect that it may be fruitfully used as a component within larger machine learning and statistical analysis systems. We derive some general sufficient conditions for the uniformity of the Pattern Maximum Likelihood distribution (PML). We also provide upper bounds on the support size of a class of patterns, and mention some recent results about the PML of 1112234.