China has experienced a spectacular economic growth in recent decades. Its economy grew more than 48 times from 1980 to 2013. How are the other countries reacting to China's rise? Do they see it as an economic opportunity or a security threat? In this paper, we answer this question by analyzing online news reports about China published in Australia, France, Germany, Japan, Russia, South Korea, the UK and the US. More specifically, we first analyze the frequency with which China has appeared in news headlines, which is a measure of China's influence in the world. Second, we build a Naive Bayes classifier to study the evolving nature of the news reports, i.e., whether they are economic or political. We then evaluate the friendliness of the news coverage based on sentiment analysis. Empirical results indicate that there has been increasing news coverage of China in all the countries under study. We also find that the emphasis of the reports is generally shifting towards China's economy. Here Japan and South Korea are exceptions: they are reporting more on Chinese politics. In terms of global sentiment, the picture is quite gloomy. With the exception of Australia and, to some extent, France, all the other countries under examination are becoming less positive towards China.
Methodologically, our work uses text classification and sentiment analysis. First we build a Naive Bayes classifier to investigate the evolving nature of foreign reports on China. This is related to many studies in text classification @cite_11 @cite_27 . In a recent study, a Naive Bayes classifier is used to classify SMS messages received by UNICEF Uganda into eleven classes @cite_19 . The fact that their messages often contain various abbreviations and spelling errors seriously affects their initial results. The same data noise problem is not present here as we are examining the news articles published by leading news groups in respective countries. We test our classifier with 800 manually labeled articles, randomly chosen from the target newspapers. The test results, reported in Section 3, show that the Naive Bayes classifier is adequate for our task.
@cite_19 @cite_27 @cite_11
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U-report is an open-source SMS platform operated by UNICEF Uganda, designed to give community members a voice on issues that impact them. Data received by the system are either SMS responses to a poll conducted by UNICEF, or unsolicited reports of a problem occurring within the community. There are currently 200,000 U-report participants, and they send up to 10,000 unsolicited text messages a week. The objective of the program in Uganda is to understand the data in real-time, and have issues addressed by the appropriate department in UNICEF in a timely manner. Given the high volume and velocity of the data streams, manual inspection of all messages is no longer sustainable. This paper describes an automated message-understanding and routing system deployed by IBM at UNICEF. We employ recent advances in data mining to get the most out of labeled training data, while incorporating domain knowledge from experts. We discuss the trade-offs, design choices and challenges in applying such techniques in a real-world deployment. Politics and political conflict often occur in the written and spoken word. Scholars have long recognized this, but the massive costs of analyzing even moderately sized collections of texts have hindered their use in political science research. Here lies the promise of automated text analysis: it substantially reduces the costs of analyzing large collections of text. We provide a guide to this exciting new area of research and show how, in many instances, the methods have already obtained part of their promise. But there are pitfalls to using automated methods—they are no substitute for careful thought and close reading and require extensive and problem-specific validation. We survey a wide range of new methods, provide guidance on how to validate the output of the models, and clarify misconceptions and errors in the literature. To conclude, we argue that for automated text methods to become a standard tool for political scientists, methodologists must contribute new methods and new methods of validation. Language is the medium for politics and political conflict. Candidates debate and state policy positions during a campaign. Once elected, representatives write and debate legislation. After laws are passed, bureaucrats solicit comments before they issue regulations. Nations regularly negotiate and then sign peace treaties, with language that signals the motivations and relative power of the countries involved. News reports document the day-to-day affairs of international relations that provide a detailed picture of conflict and cooperation. Individual candidates and political parties articulate their views through party platforms and manifestos. Terrorist groups even reveal their preferences and goals through recruiting materials, magazines, and public statements. These examples, and many others throughout political science, show that to understand what politics is about we need to know what political actors are saying and writing. Recognizing that language is central to the study of politics is not new. To the contrary, scholars of politics have long recognized that much of politics is expressed in words. But scholars have struggled when using texts to make inferences about politics. The primary problem is volume: there are simply too many political texts. Rarely are scholars able to manually read all the texts in even moderately sized corpora. And hiring coders to manually read all documents is still very expensive. The result is that