In this paper, we present an online two-level vehicle trajectory prediction framework for urban autonomous driving where there are complex contextual factors, such as lane geometries, road constructions, traffic regulations and moving agents. Our method combines high-level policy anticipation with low-level context reasoning. We leverage a long short-term memory (LSTM) network to anticipate the vehicle’s driving policy (e.g., forward, yield, turn left, turn right, etc.) using its sequential history observations. The policy is then used to guide a low-level optimization-based context reasoning process. We show that it is essential to incorporate the prior policy anticipation due to the multimodal nature of the future trajectory. Moreover, contrary to existing regression-based trajectory prediction methods, our optimization-based reasoning process can cope with complex contextual factors. The final output of the two-level reasoning process is a continuous trajectory that automatically adapts to different traffic configurations and accurately predicts future vehicle motions. The performance of the proposed framework is analyzed and validated in an emerging autonomous driving simulation platform (CARLA).
Interaction-aware models, on the other hand, take the driving context and vehicle interactions into account, and most of them, such as @cite_16 @cite_12 and @cite_29 , are based on dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs). Though these methods are context-aware, they require refactoring the models when considering a new contextual factor. Our method belongs to the interaction-aware level. Compared to the DBN-based prediction methods, our method is more flexible and can be easily adapted to different traffic configurations.
@cite_29 @cite_16 @cite_12
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Human drivers are endowed with an inborn ability to put themselves in the position of other drivers and reason about their behavior and intended actions. State-of-the-art driving-assistance systems, on the other hand, are generally limited to physical models and ad hoc safety rules. In order to drive safely amongst humans, autonomous vehicles need to develop an understanding of the situation in the form of a high-level description of the state of traffic participants. This paper presents a probabilistic model to estimate the state of vehicles by considering interactions between drivers immersed in traffic. The model is defined within a probabilistic filtering framework; estimation and prediction are carried out with statistical inference techniques. Memory requirements increase linearly with the number of vehicles, and thus, it is possible to scale the model to complex scenarios involving many participants. The approach is validated using real-world data collected by a group of interacting ground vehicles. Estimating and predicting traffic situations over time is an essential capability for sophisticated driver assistance systems and autonomous driving. When longer prediction horizons are needed, e.g., in decision making or motion planning, the uncertainty induced by incomplete environment perception and stochastic situation development over time cannot be neglected without sacrificing robustness and safety. Building consistent probabilistic models of drivers interactions with the environment, the road network and other traffic participants poses a complex problem. In this paper, we model the decision making process of drivers by building a hierarchical Dynamic Bayesian Model that describes physical relationships as well as the driver's behaviors and plans. This way, the uncertainties in the process on all abstraction levels can be handled in a mathematically consistent way. As drivers behaviors are difficult to model, we present an approach for learning continuous, non-linear, context-dependent models for the behavior of traffic participants. We propose an Expectation Maximization (EM) approach for learning the models integrated in the DBN from unlabeled observations. Experiments show a significant improvement in estimation and prediction accuracy over standard models which only consider vehicle dynamics. Finally, a novel approach to tactical decision making for autonomous driving is outlined. It is based on a continuous Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) that uses the presented model for prediction. This paper proposes a novel approach to risk assessment at road intersections. Unlike most approaches in the literature, it does not rely on trajectory prediction. Instead, dangerous situations are identified by comparing what drivers intend to do with what they are expected to do. Driver intentions and expectations are estimated from the joint motion of the vehicles, taking into account the layout of the intersection and the traffic rules at the intersection. The proposed approach was evaluated in simulation with two vehicles involved in typical collision scenarios. An analysis of the collision prediction horizon allows to characterize the efficiency of the approach in different situations, as well as the potential of different strategies to avoid an accident after a dangerous situation is detected.