Accurate prediction of others' trajectories is essential for autonomous driving. Trajectory prediction is challenging because it requires reasoning about agents' past movements, social interactions among varying numbers and kinds of agents, constraints from the scene context, and the stochasticity of human behavior. Our approach models these interactions and constraints jointly within a novel Multi-Agent Tensor Fusion (MATF) network. Specifically, the model encodes multiple agents' past trajectories and the scene context into a Multi-Agent Tensor, then applies convolutional fusion to capture multiagent interactions while retaining the spatial structure of agents and the scene context. The model decodes recurrently to multiple agents' future trajectories, using adversarial loss to learn stochastic predictions. Experiments on both highway driving and pedestrian crowd datasets show that the model achieves state-of-the-art prediction accuracy.
Many data-driven approaches learn to predict deterministic future trajectories of agents by minimizing reconstruction loss @cite_17 @cite_6 . However, human behavior is inherently stochastic. Recent approaches address this by predicting a distribution over future trajectories by combining Variational Auto-Encoders @cite_28 and Inverse Optimal Control @cite_36 , or with conditional Generative Adversarial Nets @cite_19 @cite_40 . GAIL-GRU @cite_23 uses generative adversarial imitation learning @cite_18 to learn a stochastic policy that reproduces human expert driving behavior. R2P2 @cite_37 proposes a novel cost function to encourage enhancement in both precision and diversity of the learned predictive distribution. Other approaches predict a set of possible trajectories, instead of a single deterministic trajectory, by conditioning on possible maneuver classes @cite_29 @cite_4 .
@cite_18 @cite_37 @cite_4 @cite_28 @cite_36 @cite_29 @cite_6 @cite_19 @cite_40 @cite_23 @cite_17
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Consider learning a policy from example expert behavior, without interaction with the expert or access to a reinforcement signal. One approach is to recover the expert's cost function with inverse reinforcement learning, then extract a policy from that cost function with reinforcement learning. This approach is indirect and can be slow. We propose a new general framework for directly extracting a policy from data as if it were obtained by reinforcement learning following inverse reinforcement learning. We show that a certain instantiation of our framework draws an analogy between imitation learning and generative adversarial networks, from which we derive a model-free imitation learning algorithm that obtains significant performance gains over existing model-free methods in imitating complex behaviors in large, high-dimensional environments. We propose a method to forecast a vehicle’s ego-motion as a distribution over spatiotemporal paths, conditioned on features (e.g., from LIDAR and images) embedded in an overhead map. The method learns a policy inducing a distribution over simulated trajectories that is both “diverse” (produces most of the likely paths) and “precise” (mostly produces likely paths). This balance is achieved through minimization of a symmetrized cross-entropy between the distribution and demonstration data. By viewing the simulated-outcome distribution as the pushforward of a simple distribution under a simulation operator, we obtain expressions for the cross-entropy metrics that can be efficiently evaluated and differentiated, enabling stochastic-gradient optimization. We propose concrete policy architectures for this model, discuss our evaluation metrics relative to previously-used degenerate metrics, and demonstrate the superiority of our method relative to state-of-the-art methods in both the Kitti dataset and a similar but novel and larger real-world dataset explicitly designed for the vehicle forecasting domain. We introduce a Deep Stochastic IOC RNN Encoder-decoder framework, DESIRE, for the task of future predictions of multiple interacting agents in dynamic scenes. DESIRE effectively predicts future locations of objects in multiple scenes by 1) accounting for the multi-modal nature of the future prediction (i.e., given the same context, future may vary), 2) foreseeing the potential future outcomes and make a strategic prediction based on that, and 3) reasoning not only from the past motion history, but also from the scene context as well as the interactions among the agents. DESIRE achieves these in a single end-to-end trainable neural network model, while being computationally efficient. The model first obtains a diverse set of hypothetical future prediction samples employing a conditional variational auto-encoder, which are ranked and refined by the following RNN scoring-regression module. Samples are scored by accounting for accumulated future rewards, which enables better long-term strategic decisions similar to IOC frameworks. An RNN scene context fusion module jointly captures past motion histories, the semantic scene context and interactions among multiple agents. A feedback mechanism iterates over the ranking and refinement to further boost the prediction accuracy. We evaluate our model on two publicly available datasets: KITTI and Stanford Drone Dataset. Our experiments show that the proposed model significantly improves the prediction accuracy compared to other baseline methods. Forecasting the motion of surrounding vehicles is a critical ability for an autonomous vehicle deployed in complex traffic. Motion of all vehicles in a scene is governed by the traffic context, i.e., the motion and relative spatial configuration of neighboring vehicles. In this paper we propose an LSTM encoder-decoder model that uses convolutional social pooling as an improvement to social pooling layers for robustly learning interdependencies in vehicle motion. Additionally, our model outputs a multi-modal predictive distribution over future trajectories based on maneuver classes. We evaluate our model using the publicly available NGSIM US-101 and I-80 datasets. Our results show improvement over the state of the art in terms of RMS values of prediction error and negative log-likelihoods of true future trajectories under the model's predictive distribution. We also present a qualitative analysis of the model's predicted distributions for various traffic scenarios. Understanding human motion behavior is critical for autonomous moving platforms (like self-driving cars and social robots) if they are to navigate human-centric environments. This is challenging because human motion is inherently multimodal: given a history of human motion paths, there are many socially plausible ways that people could move in the future. We tackle this problem by combining tools from sequence prediction and generative adversarial networks: a recurrent sequence-to-sequence model observes motion histories and predicts future behavior, using a novel pooling mechanism to aggregate information across people. We predict socially plausible futures by training adversarially against a recurrent discriminator, and encourage diverse predictions with a novel variety loss. Through experiments on several datasets we demonstrate that our approach outperforms prior work in terms of accuracy, variety, collision avoidance, and computational complexity. The ability to accurately predict and simulate human driving behavior is critical for the development of intelligent transportation systems. Traditional modeling methods have employed simple parametric models and behavioral cloning. This paper adopts a method for overcoming the problem of cascading errors inherent in prior approaches, resulting in realistic behavior that is robust to trajectory perturbations. We extend Generative Adversarial Imitation Learning to the training of recurrent policies, and we demonstrate that our model rivals rule-based controllers and maximum likelihood models in realistic highway simulations. Our model both reproduces emergent behavior of human drivers, such as lane change rate, while maintaining realistic control over long time horizons. Pedestrians follow different trajectories to avoid obstacles and accommodate fellow pedestrians. Any autonomous vehicle navigating such a scene should be able to foresee the future positions of pedestrians and accordingly adjust its path to avoid collisions. This problem of trajectory prediction can be viewed as a sequence generation task, where we are interested in predicting the future trajectory of people based on their past positions. Following the recent success of Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) models for sequence prediction tasks, we propose an LSTM model which can learn general human movement and predict their future trajectories. This is in contrast to traditional approaches which use hand-crafted functions such as Social forces. We demonstrate the performance of our method on several public datasets. Our model outperforms state-of-the-art methods on some of these datasets. We also analyze the trajectories predicted by our model to demonstrate the motion behaviour learned by our model.