The computational costs of inference and planning have confined Bayesian model-based reinforcement learning to one of two dismal fates: powerful Bayes-adaptive planning but only for simplistic models, or powerful, Bayesian non-parametric models but using simple, myopic planning strategies such as Thompson sampling. We ask whether it is feasible and truly beneficial to combine rich probabilistic models with a closer approximation to fully Bayesian planning. First, we use a collection of counterexamples to show formal problems with the over-optimism inherent in Thompson sampling. Then we leverage state-of-the-art techniques in efficient Bayes-adaptive planning and non-parametric Bayesian methods to perform qualitatively better than both existing conventional algorithms and Thompson sampling on two contextual bandit-like problems.
Many researchers have considered powerful statistical models in the context of sequential decision-making @cite_26 @cite_8 , including in exploration-exploitation settings @cite_0 @cite_13 . Non-parametric models have been considered in the context of control before @cite_2 @cite_13 but with an emphasis on modeling the data rather than planning. In @cite_24 , the authors consider factored mdp s whose transitions are modeled using Bayesian Networks. They demonstrate the advantages of having an appropriate prior to capture the existing structure in the true dynamics, at least in a case in which the problems of safe exploration do not arise. For planning, they propose an online Monte-Carlo algorithm with an approximate sampling scheme, however the forward-search is conducted with a depth of 2 and a small branching factor, presumably limiting the benefits of Bayes-adaptivity.
@cite_26 @cite_8 @cite_0 @cite_24 @cite_2 @cite_13
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We consider the problem of learning to act in partially observable, continuous-state-and-action worlds where we have abstract prior knowledge about the structure of the optimal policy in the form of a distribution over policies. Using ideas from planning-as-inference reductions and Bayesian unsupervised learning, we cast Markov Chain Monte Carlo as a stochastic, hill-climbing policy search algorithm. Importantly, this algorithm's search bias is directly tied to the prior and its MCMC proposal kernels, which means we can draw on the full Bayesian toolbox to express the search bias, including nonparametric priors and structured, recursive processes like grammars over action sequences. Furthermore, we can reason about uncertainty in the search bias itself by constructing a hierarchical prior and reasoning about latent variables that determine the abstract structure of the policy. This yields an adaptive search algorithm--our algorithm learns to learn a structured policy efficiently. We show how inference over the latent variables in these policy priors enables intra- and intertask transfer of abstract knowledge. We demonstrate the flexibility of this approach by learning meta search biases, by constructing a nonparametric finite state controller to model memory, by discovering motor primitives using a simple grammar over primitive actions, and by combining all three. We consider the problem of multi-task reinforcement learning where the learner is provided with a set of tasks, for which only a small number of samples can be generated for any given policy. As the number of samples may not be enough to learn an accurate evaluation of the policy, it would be necessary to identify classes of tasks with similar structure and to learn them jointly. We consider the case where the tasks share structure in their value functions, and model this by assuming that the value functions are all sampled from a common prior. We adopt the Gaussian process temporal-difference value function model and use a hierarchical Bayesian approach to model the distribution over the value functions. We study two cases, where all the value functions belong to the same class and where they belong to an undefined number of classes. For each case, we present a hierarchical Bayesian model, and derive inference algorithms for (i) joint learning of the value functions, and (ii) efficient transfer of the information gained in (i) to assist learning the value function of a newly observed task. We consider reinforcement learning in partially observable domains where the agent can query an expert for demonstrations. Our nonparametric Bayesian approach combines model knowledge, inferred from expert information and independent exploration, with policy knowledge inferred from expert trajectories. We introduce priors that bias the agent towards models with both simple representations and simple policies, resulting in improved policy and model learning. Model-based Bayesian reinforcement learning has generated significant interest in the AI community as it provides an elegant solution to the optimal exploration-exploitation tradeoff in classical reinforcement learning. Unfortunately, the applicability of this type of approach has been limited to small domains due to the high complexity of reasoning about the joint posterior over model parameters. In this paper, we consider the use of factored representations combined with online planning techniques, to improve scalability of these methods. The main contribution of this paper is a Bayesian framework for learning the structure and parameters of a dynamical system, while also simultaneously planning a (near-)optimal sequence of actions. The Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) framework has proven useful in planning domains where agents must balance actions that provide knowledge and actions that provide reward. Unfortunately, most POMDPs are complex structures with a large number of parameters. In many real-world problems, both the structure and the parameters are difficult to specify from domain knowledge alone. Recent work in Bayesian reinforcement learning has made headway in learning POMDP models; however, this work has largely focused on learning the parameters of the POMDP model. We define an infinite POMDP (iPOMDP) model that does not require knowledge of the size of the state space; instead, it assumes that the number of visited states will grow as the agent explores its world and only models visited states explicitly. We demonstrate the iPOMDP on several standard problems. We present a modular approach to reinforcement learning that uses a Bayesian representation of the uncertainty over models. The approach, BOSS (Best of Sampled Set), drives exploration by sampling multiple models from the posterior and selecting actions optimistically. It extends previous work by providing a rule for deciding when to resample and how to combine the models. We show that our algorithm achieves nearoptimal reward with high probability with a sample complexity that is low relative to the speed at which the posterior distribution converges during learning. We demonstrate that BOSS performs quite favorably compared to state-of-the-art reinforcement-learning approaches and illustrate its flexibility by pairing it with a non-parametric model that generalizes across states.