Understanding the intentions of drivers at intersections is a critical component for autonomous vehicles. Urban intersections that do not have traffic signals are a common epicentre of highly variable vehicle movement and interactions. We present a method for predicting driver intent at urban intersections through multi-modal trajectory prediction with uncertainty. Our method is based on recurrent neural networks combined with a mixture density network output layer. To consolidate the multi-modal nature of the output probability distribution, we introduce a clustering algorithm that extracts the set of possible paths that exist in the prediction output, and ranks them according to likelihood. To verify the method's performance and generalizability, we present a real-world dataset that consists of over 23,000 vehicles traversing five different intersections, collected using a vehicle mounted Lidar based tracking system. An array of metrics is used to demonstrate the performance of the model against several baselines.
Given the recurrent nature of RNNs, they have been shown to work with sequence generation quite effectively, including handwriting, text generation @cite_18 , and freehand drawings @cite_15 . The model is given a snippet of history that ends at time @math , and then the model is trained to produce a predictive distribution over @math . To generate longer sequences, a single sample from the prediction distribution is taken, and fed into the model again in a feed-forward fashion to generate a trajectory as long as desired.
@cite_18 @cite_15
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This paper shows how Long Short-term Memory recurrent neural networks can be used to generate complex sequences with long-range structure, simply by predicting one data point at a time. The approach is demonstrated for text (where the data are discrete) and online handwriting (where the data are real-valued). It is then extended to handwriting synthesis by allowing the network to condition its predictions on a text sequence. The resulting system is able to generate highly realistic cursive handwriting in a wide variety of styles. We present sketch-rnn, a recurrent neural network (RNN) able to construct stroke-based drawings of common objects. The model is trained on thousands of crude human-drawn images representing hundreds of classes. We outline a framework for conditional and unconditional sketch generation, and describe new robust training methods for generating coherent sketch drawings in a vector format.