We characterize a prevalent weakness of deep neural networks (DNNs)---overthinking---which occurs when a DNN can reach correct predictions before its final layer. Overthinking is computationally wasteful, and it can also be destructive when, by the final layer, a correct prediction changes into a misclassification. Understanding overthinking requires studying how each prediction evolves during a DNN's forward pass, which conventionally is opaque. For prediction transparency, we propose the Shallow-Deep Network (SDN), a generic modification to off-the-shelf DNNs that introduces internal classifiers. We apply SDN to four modern architectures, trained on three image classification tasks, to characterize the overthinking problem. We show that SDNs can mitigate the wasteful effect of overthinking with confidence-based early exits, which reduce the average inference cost by more than 50 and preserve the accuracy. We also find that the destructive effect occurs for 50 of misclassifications on natural inputs and that it can be induced, adversarially, with a recent backdooring attack. To mitigate this effect, we propose a new confusion metric to quantify the internal disagreements that will likely lead to misclassifications.
Neural Network Certainty Measures Widespread usage of DNNs makes indications of prediction correctness crucial for handling the potential errors. Prior work has shown that predicted probability distribution------makes an unreliable metric, as it is over-confidence towards a single class @cite_6 . To overcome the problem, prior work has described a calibration scheme @cite_15 and Bayesian model uncertainty estimation @cite_23 . The metric @cite_17 uses the representational distances to neighboring training points. Our metric is inherent to SDNs and orthogonal to these approaches as it essentially captures the how consistently a network reaches to an end prediction. Confusion is a non-expensive metric, as it does not require any calibration, reconfiguration or computing distances.
@cite_15 @cite_23 @cite_6 @cite_17
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Confidence calibration -- the problem of predicting probability estimates representative of the true correctness likelihood -- is important for classification models in many applications. We discover that modern neural networks, unlike those from a decade ago, are poorly calibrated. Through extensive experiments, we observe that depth, width, weight decay, and Batch Normalization are important factors influencing calibration. We evaluate the performance of various post-processing calibration methods on state-of-the-art architectures with image and document classification datasets. Our analysis and experiments not only offer insights into neural network learning, but also provide a simple and straightforward recipe for practical settings: on most datasets, temperature scaling -- a single-parameter variant of Platt Scaling -- is surprisingly effective at calibrating predictions. Deep learning tools have gained tremendous attention in applied machine learning. However such tools for regression and classification do not capture model uncertainty. In comparison, Bayesian models offer a mathematically grounded framework to reason about model uncertainty, but usually come with a prohibitive computational cost. In this paper we develop a new theoretical framework casting dropout training in deep neural networks (NNs) as approximate Bayesian inference in deep Gaussian processes. A direct result of this theory gives us tools to model uncertainty with dropout NNs - extracting information from existing models that has been thrown away so far. This mitigates the problem of representing uncertainty in deep learning without sacrificing either computational complexity or test accuracy. We perform an extensive study of the properties of dropout's uncertainty. Various network architectures and nonlinearities are assessed on tasks of regression and classification, using MNIST as an example. We show a considerable improvement in predictive log-likelihood and RMSE compared to existing state-of-the-art methods, and finish by using dropout's uncertainty in deep reinforcement learning. Deep neural networks are highly expressive models that have recently achieved state of the art performance on speech and visual recognition tasks. While their expressiveness is the reason they succeed, it also causes them to learn uninterpretable solutions that could have counter-intuitive properties. In this paper we report two such properties. First, we find that there is no distinction between individual high level units and random linear combinations of high level units, according to various methods of unit analysis. It suggests that it is the space, rather than the individual units, that contains of the semantic information in the high layers of neural networks. Second, we find that deep neural networks learn input-output mappings that are fairly discontinuous to a significant extend. We can cause the network to misclassify an image by applying a certain imperceptible perturbation, which is found by maximizing the network's prediction error. In addition, the specific nature of these perturbations is not a random artifact of learning: the same perturbation can cause a different network, that was trained on a different subset of the dataset, to misclassify the same input. Deep neural networks (DNNs) enable innovative applications of machine learning like image recognition, machine translation, or malware detection. However, deep learning is often criticized for its lack of robustness in adversarial settings (e.g., vulnerability to adversarial inputs) and general inability to rationalize its predictions. In this work, we exploit the structure of deep learning to enable new learning-based inference and decision strategies that achieve desirable properties such as robustness and interpretability. We take a first step in this direction and introduce the Deep k-Nearest Neighbors (DkNN). This hybrid classifier combines the k-nearest neighbors algorithm with representations of the data learned by each layer of the DNN: a test input is compared to its neighboring training points according to the distance that separates them in the representations. We show the labels of these neighboring points afford confidence estimates for inputs outside the model's training manifold, including on malicious inputs like adversarial examples--and therein provides protections against inputs that are outside the models understanding. This is because the nearest neighbors can be used to estimate the nonconformity of, i.e., the lack of support for, a prediction in the training data. The neighbors also constitute human-interpretable explanations of predictions. We evaluate the DkNN algorithm on several datasets, and show the confidence estimates accurately identify inputs outside the model, and that the explanations provided by nearest neighbors are intuitive and useful in understanding model failures.