Understanding political phenomena requires measuring the political preferences of society. We introduce a model based on mixtures of spatial voting models that infers the underlying distribution of political preferences of voters with only voting records of the population and political positions of candidates in an election. Beyond offering a cost-effective alternative to surveys, this method projects the political preferences of voters and candidates into a shared latent preference space. This projection allows us to directly compare the preferences of the two groups, which is desirable for political science but difficult with traditional survey methods. After validating the aggregated-level inferences of this model against results of related work and on simple prediction tasks, we apply the model to better understand the phenomenon of political polarization in the Texas, New York, and Ohio electorates. Taken at face value, inferences drawn from our model indicate that the electorates in these states may be less bimodal than the distribution of candidates, but that the electorates are comparatively more extreme in their variance. We conclude with a discussion of limitations of our method and potential future directions for research.
Within the computer science field, our work falls closest to a growing line of research dedicated to developing novel machine learning models for computational social science. Machine learning researchers in this area have not yet addressed the exact problem we study in our work, to the best of our knowledge. However, they have been interested in similar problems and related classes of models (e.g. @cite_13 @cite_3 @cite_1 @cite_22 ). More tangentially, a large body of work in computer science has been dedicated to drawing inferences from public observational data. Some researchers have suggested using social media data to better understand public opinion @cite_21 , while others have developed models based on inconsistent user behavior to infer their implicit preferences @cite_2 .
@cite_22 @cite_21 @cite_1 @cite_3 @cite_2 @cite_13
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Consider data consisting of pairwise measurements, such as presence or absence of links between pairs of objects. These data arise, for instance, in the analysis of protein interactions and gene regulatory networks, collections of author-recipient email, and social networks. Analyzing pairwise measurements with probabilistic models requires special assumptions, since the usual independence or exchangeability assumptions no longer hold. Here we introduce a class of variance allocation models for pairwise measurements: mixed membership stochastic blockmodels. These models combine global parameters that instantiate dense patches of connectivity (blockmodel) with local parameters that instantiate node-specific variability in the connections (mixed membership). We develop a general variational inference algorithm for fast approximate posterior inference. We demonstrate the advantages of mixed membership stochastic blockmodels with applications to social networks and protein interaction networks. On 3 November 1948, the day after Harry Truman won the United States presidential elections, the Chicago Tribune published one of the most famous erroneous headlines in newspaper history: “Dewey Defeats Truman” ( 1 , 2 ). The headline was informed by telephone surveys, which had inadvertently undersampled Truman supporters ( 1 ). Rather than permanently discrediting the practice of polling, this event led to the development of more sophisticated techniques and higher standards that produce the more accurate and statistically rigorous polls conducted today ( 3 ). We present a new solution to the ecological inference'' problem, of learning individual-level associations from aggregate data. This problem has a long history and has attracted much attention, debate, claims that it is unsolvable, and purported solutions. Unlike other ecological inference techniques, our method makes use of unlabeled individual-level data by embedding the distribution over these predictors into a vector in Hilbert space. Our approach relies on recent learning theory results for distribution regression, using kernel embeddings of distributions. Our novel approach to distribution regression exploits the connection between Gaussian process regression and kernel ridge regression, giving us a coherent, Bayesian approach to learning and inference and a convenient way to include prior information in the form of a spatial covariance function. Our approach is highly scalable as it relies on FastFood, a randomized explicit feature representation for kernel embeddings. We apply our approach to the challenging political science problem of modeling the voting behavior of demographic groups based on aggregate voting data. We consider the 2012 US Presidential election, and ask: what was the probability that members of various demographic groups supported Barack Obama, and how did this vary spatially across the country? Our results match standard survey-based exit polling data for the small number of states for which it is available, and serve to fill in the large gaps in this data, at a much higher degree of granularity. We propose a novel parameterized family of Mixed Membership Mallows Models (M4) to account for variability in pairwise comparisons generated by a heterogeneous population of noisy and inconsistent users. M4 models individual preferences as a user-specific probabilistic mixture of shared latent Mallows components. Our key algorithmic insight for estimation is to establish a statistical connection between M4 and topic models by viewing pairwise comparisons as words, and users as documents. This key insight leads us to explore Mallows components with a separable structure and leverage recent advances in separable topic discovery. While separability appears to be overly restrictive, we nevertheless show that it is an inevitable outcome of a relatively small number of latent Mallows components in a world of large number of items. We then develop an algorithm based on robust extreme-point identification of convex polygons to learn the reference rankings, and is provably consistent with polynomial sample complexity guarantees. We demonstrate that our new model is empirically competitive with the current state-of-the-art approaches in predicting real-world preferences.