Epidemic processes are common out-of-equilibrium phenomena of broad interdisciplinary interest. Recently, dynamic message-passing (DMP) has been proposed as an efficient algorithm for simulating epidemic models on networks, and in particular for estimating the probability that a given node will become infectious at a particular time. To date, DMP has been applied exclusively to models with one-way state changes, as opposed to models like SIS and SIRS where nodes can return to previously inhabited states. Because many real-world epidemics can exhibit such recurrent dynamics, we propose a DMP algorithm for complex, recurrent epidemic models on networks. Our approach takes correlations between neighboring nodes into account while preventing causal signals from backtracking to their immediate source, and thus avoids echo chamber effects'' where a pair of adjacent nodes each amplify the probability that the other is infectious. We demonstrate that this approach well approximates results obtained from Monte Carlo simulation and that its accuracy is often superior to the pair approximation (which also takes second-order correlations into account). Moreover, our approach is more computationally efficient than the pair approximation, especially for complex epidemic models: the number of variables in our DMP approach grows as @math where @math is the number of edges and @math is the number of states, as opposed to @math for the pair approximation. We suspect that the resulting reduction in computational effort, as well as the conceptual simplicity of DMP, will make it a useful tool in epidemic modeling, especially for high-dimensional inference tasks.
Similarly, just as the leading eigenvector of @math was recently shown to be a good measure of importance or centrality'' of a node @cite_50 , it may be helpful in identifying superspreaders''---nodes where an initial infection will generate the largest outbreak, and be the most likely to lead to a widespread epidemic.
@cite_50
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Eigenvector centrality is a common measure of the importance of nodes in a network. Here we show that under common conditions the eigenvector centrality displays a localization transition that causes most of the weight of the centrality to concentrate on a small number of nodes in the network. In this regime the measure is no longer useful for distinguishing among the remaining nodes and its efficacy as a network metric is impaired. As a remedy, we propose an alternative centrality measure based on the nonbacktracking matrix, which gives results closely similar to the standard eigenvector centrality in dense networks where the latter is well behaved, but avoids localization and gives useful results in regimes where the standard centrality fails.