In this paper, we present a novel approach to predict crime in a geographic space from multiple data sources, in particular mobile phone and demographic data. The main contribution of the proposed approach lies in using aggregated and anonymized human behavioral data derived from mobile network activity to tackle the crime prediction problem. While previous research efforts have used either background historical knowledge or offenders' profiling, our findings support the hypothesis that aggregated human behavioral data captured from the mobile network infrastructure, in combination with basic demographic information, can be used to predict crime. In our experimental results with real crime data from London we obtain an accuracy of almost 70 when predicting whether a specific area in the city will be a crime hotspot or not. Moreover, we provide a discussion of the implications of our findings for data-driven crime analysis.
Researchers have devoted attention to the study of criminal behavior dynamics both from a people- and place- centric perspective. The people-centric perspective has mostly been used for individual or collective criminal profiling. Wang @cite_3 proposed , a machine learning approach to the problem of detecting specific patterns in crimes that are committed by the same offender or group of offenders. In @cite_45 , it is proposed a biased random walk model built upon empirical knowledge of criminal offenders behavior along with spatio-temporal crime information to take into account repeating patterns in historical crime data. Furthermore, Ratcliffe @cite_44 investigated the spatio-temporal constraints underlying offenders' criminal behavior.
@cite_44 @cite_45 @cite_3
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Motivated by empirical observations of spatio-temporal clusters of crime across a wide variety of urban settings, we present a model to study the emergence, dynamics, and steady-state properties of crime hotspots. We focus on a two-dimensional lattice model for residential burglary, where each site is characterized by a dynamic attractiveness variable, and where each criminal is represented as a random walker. The dynamics of criminals and of the attractiveness field are coupled to each other via specific biasing and feedback mechanisms. Depending on parameter choices, we observe and describe several regimes of aggregation, including hotspots of high criminal activity. On the basis of the discrete system, we also derive a continuum model; the two are in good quantitative agreement for large system sizes. By means of a linear stability analysis we are able to determine the parameter values that will lead to the creation of stable hotspots. We discuss our model and results in the context of established crim... Our goal is to automatically detect patterns of crime. Among a large set of crimes that happen every year in a major city, it is challenging, time-consuming, and labor-intensive for crime analysts to determine which ones may have been committed by the same individual(s). If automated, data-driven tools for crime pattern detection are made available to assist analysts, these tools could help police to better understand patterns of crime, leading to more precise attribution of past crimes, and the apprehension of suspects. To do this, we propose a pattern detection algorithm called Series Finder, that grows a pattern of discovered crimes from within a database, starting from a "seed" of a few crimes. Series Finder incorporates both the common characteristics of all patterns and the unique aspects of each specific pattern, and has had promising results on a decade's worth of crime pattern data collected by the Crime Analysis Unit of the Cambridge Police Department.