We leverage automatic differentiation (AD) and probabilistic programming to develop an end-to-end optimization algorithm for batch triangulation of a large number of unknown objects. Given noisy detections extracted from noisily geo-located street level imagery without depth information, we jointly estimate the number and location of objects of different types, together with parameters for sensor noise characteristics and prior distribution of objects conditioned on side information. The entire algorithm is framed as nested stochastic variational inference. An inner loop solves a soft data association problem via loopy belief propagation; a middle loop performs soft EM clustering using a regularized Newton solver (leveraging an AD framework); an outer loop backpropagates through the inner loops to train global parameters. We place priors over sensor parameters for different traffic object types, and demonstrate improvements with richer priors incorporating knowledge of the environment. We test our algorithm on detections of road signs observed by cars with mounted cameras, though in practice this technique can be used for any geo-tagged images. The detections were extracted by neural image detectors and classifiers, and we independently triangulate each type of sign (e.g. stop, traffic light). We find that our model is more robust to DNN misclassifications than current methods, generalizes across sign types, and can use geometric information to increase precision. Our algorithm outperforms our current production baseline based on k-means clustering. We show that variational inference training allows generalization by learning sign-specific parameters.
The PHD filter @cite_16 and labelled multi-Bernoulli filter @cite_27 represent collections of unknown number of objects with unknown positions; our representation can be seen as a Laplace approximation to a multi-Bernoulli filter. To track multiple objects with unlabeled detections, Williams and Lau @cite_20 solve the data association problem by using loopy belief propagation @cite_13 to produce an approximate soft assignment of detections to objects. @cite_25 describe a similar loopy BP-based multi-object tracking system, formulating the tracker as a variational inference method @cite_2 , similar to our formulation.
@cite_27 @cite_2 @cite_16 @cite_13 @cite_25 @cite_20
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ABSTRACTOne of the core problems of modern statistics is to approximate difficult-to-compute probability densities. This problem is especially important in Bayesian statistics, which frames all inference about unknown quantities as a calculation involving the posterior density. In this article, we review variational inference (VI), a method from machine learning that approximates probability densities through optimization. VI has been used in many applications and tends to be faster than classical methods, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling. The idea behind VI is to first posit a family of densities and then to find a member of that family which is close to the target density. Closeness is measured by Kullback–Leibler divergence. We review the ideas behind mean-field variational inference, discuss the special case of VI applied to exponential family models, present a full example with a Bayesian mixture of Gaussians, and derive a variant that uses stochastic optimization to scale up to massive data... Recently, researchers have demonstrated that loopy belief propagation - the use of Pearls polytree algorithm IN a Bayesian network WITH loops OF error- correcting codes.The most dramatic instance OF this IS the near Shannon - limit performance OF Turbo Codes codes whose decoding algorithm IS equivalent TO loopy belief propagation IN a chain - structured Bayesian network. IN this paper we ask : IS there something special about the error - correcting code context, OR does loopy propagation WORK AS an approximate inference schemeIN a more general setting? We compare the marginals computed using loopy propagation TO the exact ones IN four Bayesian network architectures, including two real - world networks : ALARM AND QMR.We find that the loopy beliefs often converge AND WHEN they do, they give a good approximation TO the correct marginals.However,ON the QMR network, the loopy beliefs oscillated AND had no obvious relationship TO the correct posteriors. We present SOME initial investigations INTO the cause OF these oscillations, AND show that SOME simple methods OF preventing them lead TO the wrong results. We introduce a novel probabilistic tracking algorithm that incorporates combinatorial data association constraints and model-based track management using variational Bayes. We use a Bethe entropy approximation to incorporate data association constraints that are often ignored in previous probabilistic tracking algorithms. Noteworthy aspects of our method include a model-based mechanism to replace heuristic logic typically used to initiate and destroy tracks, and an assignment posterior with linear computation cost in window length as opposed to the exponential scaling of previous MAP-based approaches. We demonstrate the applicability of our method on radar tracking and computer vision problems. Data association, the problem of reasoning over correspondence between targets and measurements, is a fundamental problem in tracking. This paper presents a graphical model formulation of data association and applies an approximate inference method, belief propagation (BP), to obtain estimates of marginal association probabilities. We prove that BP is guaranteed to converge, and bound the number of iterations necessary. Experiments reveal a favourable comparison to prior methods in terms of accuracy and computational complexity.