Next generation Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) must reliably avoid moving obstacles. Existing dynamic collision avoidance methods are effective where obstacle trajectories are linear or known, but such restrictions are not accurate to many real-world UAV applications. We propose an efficient method of predicting an obstacle's motion based only on recent observations, via online training of an LSTM neural network. Given such predictions, we define a Nonlinear Probabilistic Velocity Obstacle (NPVO), which can be used select a velocity that is collision free with a given probability. We take a step towards formal verification of our approach, using statistical model checking to approximate the probability that our system will mispredict an obstacle's motion. Given such a probability, we prove upper bounds on the probability of collision in multiagent and reciprocal collision avoidance scenarios. Furthermore, we demonstrate in simulation that our method avoids collisions where state-of-the-art methods fail.
We propose a novel algorithm to predict the motion of moving obstacles via online training of an LSTM Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) @cite_5 , using dropout to obtain uncertainty estimates over these predictions @cite_19 @cite_17 . To our knowledge, this is the first work proposing an online obstacle motion prediction system for collision avoidance without a priori environmental knowledge or an extensive offline training set.
@cite_19 @cite_5 @cite_17
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Deep learning tools have gained tremendous attention in applied machine learning. However such tools for regression and classification do not capture model uncertainty. In comparison, Bayesian models offer a mathematically grounded framework to reason about model uncertainty, but usually come with a prohibitive computational cost. In this paper we develop a new theoretical framework casting dropout training in deep neural networks (NNs) as approximate Bayesian inference in deep Gaussian processes. A direct result of this theory gives us tools to model uncertainty with dropout NNs - extracting information from existing models that has been thrown away so far. This mitigates the problem of representing uncertainty in deep learning without sacrificing either computational complexity or test accuracy. We perform an extensive study of the properties of dropout's uncertainty. Various network architectures and nonlinearities are assessed on tasks of regression and classification, using MNIST as an example. We show a considerable improvement in predictive log-likelihood and RMSE compared to existing state-of-the-art methods, and finish by using dropout's uncertainty in deep reinforcement learning. Recurrent neural networks (RNNs) stand at the forefront of many recent developments in deep learning. Yet a major difficulty with these models is their tendency to overfit, with dropout shown to fail when applied to recurrent layers. Recent results at the intersection of Bayesian modelling and deep learning offer a Bayesian interpretation of common deep learning techniques such as dropout. This grounding of dropout in approximate Bayesian inference suggests an extension of the theoretical results, offering insights into the use of dropout with RNN models. We apply this new variational inference based dropout technique in LSTM and GRU models, assessing it on language modelling and sentiment analysis tasks. The new approach outperforms existing techniques, and to the best of our knowledge improves on the single model state-of-the-art in language modelling with the Penn Treebank (73.4 test perplexity). This extends our arsenal of variational tools in deep learning.