We present a simple model of a non-equilibrium self-organizing market where asset prices are partially driven by investment decisions of a bounded-rational agent. The agent acts in a stochastic market environment driven by various exogenous "alpha" signals, agent's own actions (via market impact), and noise. Unlike traditional agent-based models, our agent aggregates all traders in the market, rather than being a representative agent. Therefore, it can be identified with a bounded-rational component of the market itself, providing a particular implementation of an Invisible Hand market mechanism. In such setting, market dynamics are modeled as a fictitious self-play of such bounded-rational market-agent in its adversarial stochastic environment. As rewards obtained by such self-playing market agent are not observed from market data, we formulate and solve a simple model of such market dynamics based on a neuroscience-inspired Bounded Rational Information Theoretic Inverse Reinforcement Learning (BRIT-IRL). This results in effective asset price dynamics with a non-linear mean reversion - which in our model is generated dynamically, rather than being postulated. We argue that our model can be used in a similar way to the Black-Litterman model. In particular, it represents, in a simple modeling framework, market views of common predictive signals, market impacts and implied optimal dynamic portfolio allocations, and can be used to assess values of private signals. Moreover, it allows one to quantify a "market-implied" optimal investment strategy, along with a measure of market rationality. Our approach is numerically light, and can be implemented using standard off-the-shelf software such as TensorFlow.
We use entropy-regularized Reinforcement Learning in the form suggested by Tishby and co-workers under the name of G-learning @cite_15 , as a way to do Reinforcement Learning in a noisy environment. While @cite_15 assumed a tabulated discrete-state discrete-action setting, in our case both the state and action spaces are high-dimensional continuous spaces. For a tutorial-style introduction to Information-constrained Markov Decision Processes, see Larsson el. al. @cite_35 .
@cite_35 @cite_15
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In this semi-tutorial paper, we first review the information-theoretic approach to account for the computational costs incurred during the search for optimal actions in a sequential decision-making problem. The traditional (MDP) framework ignores computational limitations while searching for optimal policies, essentially assuming that the acting agent is perfectly rational and aims for exact optimality. Using the free-energy, a variational principle is introduced that accounts not only for the value of a policy alone, but also considers the cost of finding this optimal policy. The solution of the variational equations arising from this formulation can be obtained using familiar Bellman-like value iterations from dynamic programming (DP) and the Blahut-Arimoto (BA) algorithm from rate distortion theory. Finally, we demonstrate the utility of the approach for generating hierarchies of state abstractions that can be used to best exploit the available computational resources. A numerical example showcases these concepts for a path-planning problem in a grid world environment. Model-free reinforcement learning algorithms such as Q-learning perform poorly in the early stages of learning in noisy environments, because much effort is spent on unlearning biased estimates of the state-action function. The bias comes from selecting, among several noisy estimates, the apparent optimum, which may actually be suboptimal. We propose G-learning, a new off-policy learning algorithm that regularizes the noise in the space of optimal actions by penalizing deterministic policies at the beginning of the learning. Moreover, it enables naturally incorporating prior distributions over optimal actions when available. The stochastic nature of G-learning also makes it more cost-effective than Q-learning in noiseless but exploration-risky domains. We illustrate these ideas in several examples where G-learning results in significant improvements of the learning rate and the learning cost.