In traditional models for word-of-mouth recommendations and viral marketing, the objective function has generally been based on reaching as many people as possible. However, a number of studies have shown that the indiscriminate spread of a product by word-of-mouth can result in overexposure, reaching people who evaluate it negatively. This can lead to an effect in which the over-promotion of a product can produce negative reputational effects, by reaching a part of the audience that is not receptive to it. How should one make use of social influence when there is a risk of overexposure? In this paper, we develop and analyze a theoretical model for this process; we show how it captures a number of the qualitative phenomena associated with overexposure, and for the main formulation of our model, we provide a polynomial-time algorithm to find the optimal marketing strategy. We also present simulations of the model on real network topologies, quantifying the extent to which our optimal strategies outperform natural baselines
As noted in the introduction, our work --- through its focus on selecting a seed set of nodes with which to start a cascade --- follows the motivation underlying the line of theoretical work on influence maximization @cite_18 @cite_27 @cite_15 . There has been some theoretical work showing the counter-intuitive outcome where increased effort results in a less successful spread. An example is @cite_0 , where they show that due to the separation of the infection and viral stage, there are cases where an increased effort can result in a lower rate of spread. A related line of work has made use of rich datasets on digital friend-to-friend recommendations on e-commerce sites to analyze the flow of product recommendations through an underlying social network @cite_19 . Further work has experimentally explored influence strategies, with individuals either immediately broadcasting their product adoption to their social network, or selecting individuals to recommend the product to @cite_20 .
@cite_18 @cite_0 @cite_19 @cite_27 @cite_15 @cite_20
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One of the major applications of data mining is in helping companies determine which potential customers to market to. If the expected profit from a customer is greater than the cost of marketing to her, the marketing action for that customer is executed. So far, work in this area has considered only the intrinsic value of the customer (i.e, the expected profit from sales to her). We propose to model also the customer's network value: the expected profit from sales to other customers she may influence to buy, the customers those may influence, and so on recursively. Instead of viewing a market as a set of independent entities, we view it as a social network and model it as a Markov random field. We show the advantages of this approach using a social network mined from a collaborative filtering database. Marketing that exploits the network value of customers---also known as viral marketing---can be extremely effective, but is still a black art. Our work can be viewed as a step towards providing a more solid foundation for it, taking advantage of the availability of large relevant databases. Many studies in the field of information spread through social networks focus on the detection of influencers. The spread dynamics in most of these studies assumes these influencers are first selected and "infected" with a message, and then this message spreads through the networks by a viral process. The following work presents some difficulties with this separation between the infection stage and the viral stage, and provides a case where an increased effort spent on the spread of an idea results in lower final rates of spread. Such results can be prevented by the Scheduling Seeding approach. This approach gradually plans the timing of infection for each particular node as the viral process progresses. It outperforms the initial seeding approach, and prevents the occurrence of the counter-intuitive (and unwanted) results where a greater effort results in a less successful spread. A simple but effective heuristics to detect what node to seed and where is provided. We present an analysis of a person-to-person recommendation network, consisting of 4 million people who made 16 million recommendations on half a million products. We observe the propagation of recommendations and the cascade sizes, which we explain by a simple stochastic model. We analyze how user behavior varies within user communities defined by a recommendation network. Product purchases follow a ‘long tail’ where a significant share of purchases belongs to rarely sold items. We establish how the recommendation network grows over time and how effective it is from the viewpoint of the sender and receiver of the recommendations. While on average recommendations are not very effective at inducing purchases and do not spread very far, we present a model that successfully identifies communities, product, and pricing categories for which viral marketing seems to be very effective. Viral marketing takes advantage of networks of influence among customers to inexpensively achieve large changes in behavior. Our research seeks to put it on a firmer footing by mining these networks from data, building probabilistic models of them, and using these models to choose the best viral marketing plan. Knowledge-sharing sites, where customers review products and advise each other, are a fertile source for this type of data mining. In this paper we extend our previous techniques, achieving a large reduction in computational cost, and apply them to data from a knowledge-sharing site. We optimize the amount of marketing funds spent on each customer, rather than just making a binary decision on whether to market to him. We take into account the fact that knowledge of the network is partial, and that gathering that knowledge can itself have a cost. Our results show the robustness and utility of our approach. We examine how firms can create word-of-mouth peer influence and social contagion by designing viral features into their products and marketing campaigns. To econometrically identify the effectiveness of different viral features in creating social contagion, we designed and conducted a randomized field experiment involving the 1.4 million friends of 9,687 experimental users on Facebook.com. We find that viral features generate econometrically identifiable peer influence and social contagion effects. More surprisingly, we find that passive-broadcast viral features generate a 246 increase in peer influence and social contagion, whereas adding active-personalized viral features generate only an additional 98 increase. Although active-personalized viral messages are more effective in encouraging adoption per message and are correlated with more user engagement and sustained product use, passive-broadcast messaging is used more often, generating more total peer adoption in the network. Our work provides a model for how randomized trials can identify peer influence in social networks. This paper was accepted by Pradeep Chintagunta and Preyas Desai, special issue editors. This paper was accepted by Pradeep Chintagunta and Preyas Desai, special issue editors.