Safety and Cost Assessment of Connected and Automated Vehicles
As the automobile industry transitions to partial vehicle automation, newer crash avoidance technologies are beginning to appear more frequently in non luxury vehicles such as the Honda Accord and Mazda CX 9. The availability of Forward Collision Warning (FCW) Lane Departure Warning (LDW) and Blind Spot Monitoring (BSM) technologies could reach 95% of the registered vehicle fleet anywhere between the years 2032 and 2048 (HLDI, 2014a) This paper estimates the costs and benefits of large scale deployment of BSM, LDW, and FCW crash avoidance systems within the light duty vehicle fleet. Two estimates are made to provide insight on current trends and technology potential. First, an upper bound of relevant crashes that potentially could be avoided or made less severe by the three technologies is estimated, assuming 100% technology effectiveness. Next, a lower bound in crash reduction is estimated using current changes in observed insurance collision claim frequency and severity (average loss payment per claim) in motor vehicles with these technologies. After these estimates are made, an annualized cost to equip each vehicle with the technologies enables a cost benefit analysis for the lower bound and upper bound estimates.