Impact of economic fluctuations on suicide mortality in Canada (1926 2008) Testing the Durkheim, Ginsberg, and Henry and Short theories
ABSTRACT Three theories have been proposed to explain the relationship between suicide and economic fluctuations, including the Durkheim (nonlinear) Ginsberg (procyclical) and Henry and Short (countercyclical) theories. This study tested the effect of economic fluctuations, measured by unemployment rate, on suicide rates in Canada from 1926 to 2008. Autoregressive integrated moving average time series models were used. The results showed a significant relationship between suicide and economic fluctuation; this association was positive during the contraction period (1926 1950) and negative in the period of economic expansion (1951 1973) Males and females showed differential effects in the period of moderate unemployment (1974 2008) In addition, the suicide rate of mid adults (45 64) was most impacted by economic fluctuations. Our study tends to support Durkheim's theory and suggests the need for public health responses in times of economic contraction and expansion.
Death studies