New advances in decision making theory under uncertainty and its application in mega projects of hydropower
Hydropower constitutes the main generation apparatus in Colombia, producing 64.2% of all power, so that the country is currently developing three mega projects with an installed capacity above 400 MW and two more hydroelectric construction projects are being considered. In spite of the need to expand electricity service coverage, the social consciousness about necessity of new hydropower generation developments and the expertise teams behind their execution, uncertainty over environmental impact is rarely totally estimated. This study uses the cumulative prospect theory by Kahneman and Tversky, to determine the scenarios in which large organisations tend towards losses among the uncertain environmental impact situations. It also will set prospect theory in an original and practical update arena to modelling the decision making process and propose a policy, which manages to turn losses, linked to uncertainty, into income opportunities by enforcing the uses of external data.