Fukuyama and the Chinese middle class: modernization theory 1.5
Abstract Francis Fukuyama's recent works have rekindled interest in the larger questions of political development and have been discussed widely, including in China. This essay argues, first, that his theoretical perspective is squarely rooted in the classical modernization paradigm which is inherently teleological, but it develops its tenets and adds new insights to this body of theory. This qualifies Fukuyama's theoretical perspective as 'Modernization Theory 1.5' a significant and important update on earlier versions, but not quite a fully relaunched research program. Second, the essay exemplifies what is problematic about this enhanced perspective by focusing on the role of the middle class for political development as envisaged by Fukuyama. His argument about the central role of the middle class for democratization is critiqued because the concept is underspecified in Fukuyama's framework and, arguably, will remain an essentially contested concept and as such unhelpful in shedding light on political development. Moreover, his treatment of the Chinese middle class, in particular, is unconvincing because he fails to explicate how a collective 'middle class consciousness' is to arise in a society undergoing rapid and multifaceted social re stratification and mobilization. Social identity is the 'missing link' in his argumentation. Given these criticisms, the essay calls for a fundamental overhaul of the modernization debate in political science that should take into account more refined arguments advanced by sociologists studying the subject.