Ongoing Evolution of the Electricity Industry Effects of Market Conditions and the Clean Power Plan on States
Overview 2 Background 6 Methods and Assumptions 10 Baseline Trends 14 Policy Scenarios 15 National CPP Policy Results 17 State Level Imacts and Patchwork Policies 35 Conclusions 62 Appendix A 63 Appendix B 69 References 71 SUMMARY The electricity industry is evolving as changes in natural gas and coal prices, along with environmental regulations, shift the generation mix. Future trends in gas prices and renewables costs are likely to continue moving the industry away from coal fired generation and into lower emitting sources such as natural gas and renewables. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Clean Power Plan (CPP) is likely to amplify these trends. The CPP rule regulates emissions from existing fossil generators and allows states to choose among an array of rate based and mass based goals.