Population Growth and Development Prospects for Pakistan
Since its founding Pakistan has exhibited a continuously high rate of population growth. When measured by population size it has moved from the thirteenth largest country in 1950 to the seventh largest country in 1996 (Table 1). Today Pakikan exhibits the highest rate of growth among the world's largest countries, and according to some projections will become the third most populated country in the world by the year 2050 [United Nations (1998)]. Given the country's present resources, this magnitude of population growth has serious implications for the social and economic well-being of the people of Pakistan. A staggering statistic shows that the area now constituting Pakistan which had only 16.6 million people at the turn of the century, will surpass the 150 million mark by the new millennium (less than a year away).
Population Planning in Pakistan: How to Meet the Challenge?
The recent decline in the total fertility rate (11-R) borne out by recent surveys and supported by the results of the 1998 population census of Pakistan (see Table 1) indicates that onset of fertility transition has been made in Pakistan. However, still these rates (5.3 children) excepting Nepal (5.4 children) are the highest in this region. A high proportion of young population (43 percent under 15 years) resulting in population momentum has made the situation grimmer as the task of achieving zero population growth seems to be many decades away even after attaining replacement level fertility. As per United Nations projections, Pakistan in 2050, will leave behind United States, Indonesia, Brazil and Russia and will become the third most populous country of the world with a population of 380 million. A very high rate of population growth in the recent past annihilated most of the developmental achievements and the country remained poor in terms of socio-economic indicators. For example, the average annual per capita income is $460, 24 percent females and 50 percent males are literate, about 60 percent population has an access to safe water whereas, satisfactory sanitation is available to only 30 percent of population [Population Reference Bureau (1997)]. This situation warrants immediate need to accelerate the pace of fertility decline in Pakistan.
The "broker issue".
The 2nd of 3 sessions of the Preparatory Committee was held for the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) to be convened in September 1994 in Cairo Egypt. Participants from governments 400 nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) and international agencies worked out the rules for participation and set themes for discussion. The proposed conceptual framework for the ICPD final document would have it address a broad range of issues subdivided in 3 sections. The 1st section would address the interrelationships between population sustained economic growth and sustainable development; gender equality and womens empowerment; population growth and structure; the role and composition of the family; reproductive rights reproductive health and family planning; health and mortality; and population distribution urbanization and internal and international migration. The 2nd section would promote population information education and communication; capacity-building; and technology research and development. The 3rd section will suggest the course of national action; international cooperation; and partnership with NGOs