Reducing disaster risks 1980–2010: Some reflections and speculations
Through personal reflections on themes covering past experiences, the author considers selected experiences of disaster risk management (DRM) that span 30 years of DRM, and makes some speculations concerning the future, and ponders whether within the selected themes the future looks positive or negative. The observations begin with some memories of the Ocho Rios Conference: a multi disciplinary expedition to examine housing and hazards in Pakistan; issues concerning education and training; and finally the success of a massive reconstruction project of rural dwellings in Pakistan following the 2005 earthquake. Some key questions are considered: the value of community-based risk management; the reduction of short- or long-term risks; the protection of critical facilities; whose reality is being addressed? official neglect of education for DRM; the conditions needed to create highly effective safe reconstruction in rural Pakistan.
Disaster by Design: corruption, construction and catastrophe
An underlying assumption of this paper is that many 'natural' disasters are the direct outcome of 'deviant' political and economic decisions and actions by states. While focusing on three recent major earthquakes in Turkey, the paper explores the dynamic relationship between state power, corruption, corporate power and, to a limited extent, organized crime in the context of examining responsibility for earthquake-precipitated catastrophe. It documents the 'network of responsibilities, opportunities and pressures' which combine as state crime to create earthquake disasters involving mass human rights violations. The paper argues for a reinterpretation of natural disasters in terms of human rights violations, while developing themes around state culpability which first emerged in an Economic and Social Research Council-funded study undertaken by the author (with Al Hussaini and Curry) on the 1999 Marmara earthquake in Turkey.
When to Cross the Spread? Trading in Two-Sided Limit Order Books
In this paper the problem of optimal trading in illiquid markets is addressed when the deviations from a given stochastic target function describing, for instance, external aggregate client flow are penalized. Using techniques of singular stochastic control, we extend the results of [F. Naujokat and N. Westray, Math. Financ. Econ., 4 (2011), pp. 299--335] to a two-sided limit order market with temporary market impact and resilience, where the bid ask spread is now also controlled. In addition to using market orders, the trader can also submit orders to a dark pool. We first show existence and uniqueness of an optimal control. In a second step, a suitable version of the stochastic maximum principle is derived which yields a characterization of the optimal trading strategy in terms of a nonstandard coupled forward-backward stochastic differential equation (FBSDE). We show that the optimal control can be characterized via buy, sell, and no-trade regions. The new feature is that we now get a nondegenerate no-...