MODELS OF SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF THUNDERSTORM RAINFALL
A simplified stochastic model based on airmass thunderstorm rainfall data from the 58-square-mile Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed in south eastern Arizona is being developed at the Southwest Watershed Research Center, Tucson, Ariz. Records from the 95 rain gage network on this watershed pro vide valuable information on airmass thunderstorm rainfall in the Southwestern United States. Proba bility distributions are being used to model random variables—number of cells, spatial distribution of the cells, and cell center depths—of thunderstorms in a summer rainy season. A computer program produces synthetic thunderstorm rainfall based on these distributional assumptions. The synthetic data are compared, with respect to storm center depths and isohyetal map characteristics, with data from the dense rain gage network on Walnut Gulch. The daily and hourly chances of occurrence of seasonal airmass thunderstorm rainfall are modeled. Efforts are being made to model the temporal dis tribution of rainfall from individual cells within the airmass thunderstorm. Finally, the question of model transferability to other regions and locations is tied to defining regional meteorology and local topography.
DETERMINISTIC APPROACH TO WATERSHED MODELING
Physically-based, deterministic models, are considered in this paper. Physically-based, in that the models have a theoretical structure based primarily on the laws of conservation of mass, energy, or momentum; deterministic in the sense that when initial and boundary conditions and inputs are specified, the output is known with certainty. This type of model attempts to describe the structure of a particular hydrologic process and is therefore helpful in predicting what will happen when some change occurs in the system.
Lake Muzahi, Rwanda: limnological features and phytoplankton production
Lake Muhazi, a small lake of Rwanda (East Africa) was studied from 1986 to 1990. A dramatic decrease of the catch of Oreochromis niloticus (350 T y−1 in the fifties vs 30 T y−1 in 1982) suggested a loss of productivity or overfishing. In the same period, other ecological changes occurred: the submerged macrophytes regressed and there was a decrease in Secchi depth (0.65 m in 1987 vs 1.5 m in the fifties). Compared to other lakes of the same area, the plankton production seemed low. The results of the present study characterize lake Muhazi as a shallow lake with a rather unstable diurnal stratification and with slight differences in mixing regime between its eastern, deepest part and its western, shallowest part. Secchi disk depth does not vary seasonally to a large extent. The water has a rather high mineral content (conductivity of about 500 µS cm−1 at 25 °C) and low concentrations of dissolved N and P, except in the hypolimnion, where NHinf4sup+-N can be high.Two species, Microcystis aeruginosa and Ceratium hirundinella, account for most of the phytoplankton biomass, which is about 50–80 mg chlorophyll a m−2 in the euphotic zone, usually with little seasonal variation. Daily gross production estimates amount to about 6 to 9.5 g O2 m−2 d−1 with a significant difference between the two parts of the lake. Data on C:N and C:P ratio in the phytoplankton suggest that some N deficiency might occur in the eastern part. Moreover, the Zm:Zc ratio could also lead to rather low net production rates (0.21–0.25 d−1 for a mixed layer of 4 m)In conclusion, the primary production of lake Muhazi is medium for African lakes and the hypothesis that decreased planktonic production could account for a reduced fish production should be discarded. Whereas the present yield of the fishery is only 20 kg ha−1 y−1, the yield estimated from primary production ranges between 46 and 64 kg ha−1 y−1. This could be reached through proper management. Finally, some hypotheses are given to explain the ecological changes which occurred in the lake.