SYSTEMIC UNCERTAINTIES AND DECISION SUPPORT APPLICATIONS IN REGIONAL SEISMIC LOSS ANALYSES
A number of tools and advancements have been developed over the course of the last decade for public use in regional seismic disaster planning. This paper addresses some of the considerations and approaches that influence state-of-theart regional seismic loss assessments and risk management, with particular emphasis on approaches applied to areas having potentially high consequence but low probability seismic hazards in the United States. The various components of regional seismic loss assessment are synthesized within a GIS-based framework, including the aggregation and propagation of uncertainties inherent in the analysis. The threat posed by ground shaking and ground failure hazard effects is estimated and mapped onto high resolution point-wise building stock and bridge inventory assets. Inventory vulnerability is assigned based on structural classifications of construction materials, together with general system configurations and lateral resisting system types. Likelihood of damage to the built environment is then determined by the combination of the hazard and vulnerability for each building and bridge, and social and economic consequences are projected based on correlation with descriptions of physical damage levels, both in terms of expected values, and dispersions of the aggregate regional analysis output. Decision support algorithms are also discussed, which leverage the high resolution of the regional analysis output to focus mitigation planning and capital investment on particularly sensitive and influential assets within study regions.
DEVELOPMENT OF A DISPLACEMENT-BASED EARTHQUAKE LOSS ASSESSMENT METHOD FOR TURKISH BUILDINGS
A Displacement-Based Earthquake Loss Assessment (DBELA) methodology for urban areas, which compares the displacement capacity of the building stock with the displacement demand from earthquake scenarios, has been under development throughout the recent years. The building stock is modelled as a random population of building classes with varying geometrical and material properties through Monte Carlo simulation. The period of vibration of each building in the random population is calculated using a simplified equation based on the height of the building and building type, whilst the displacement capacity at different limit states is predicted using simple equations which are a function of the randomly simulated geometrical and material properties. The displacement capacity of each building is then compared to the displacement demand obtained from an over-damped displacement spectrum, using its period of vibration; the proportion of buildings which exceed each damage state can thus be estimated. The methodology has recently been further verified and calibrated by carrying out a number of structural analyses on case study buildings and frames from the existing European building stock, and in particular from Turkish buildings. Dual (frame-wall) buildings and reinforced concrete structures with infill walls have also been included in the methodology. The method has also been extended to include different types of Turkish masonry structures constructed with concrete and timber slabs. DBELA has been further calibrated to the Turkish building stock following the collection of a large database of structural characteristics of buildings from the northern Marmara Region. The probabilistic distributions for each of the structural characteristics (e.g. storey height, steel properties etc.) have been defined using the aforementioned database. Damage ratios relating cost of repair to cost of replacement for slight, moderate, extensive and complete damage for reinforced concrete buildings have also been obtained for the Turkish building stock. Preliminary results in terms of social losses for a single earthquake scenario close to the city of Istanbul are presented.
Iustitia Dei: A History of the Christian Doctrine of Justification
Preface Acknowledgements 1. Prolegomena 2. The fountainhead: Augustine of Hippo 3. The development of the doctrine in the medieval period 4. The medieval schools of thought on justification 5. The transition from the medieval to the modern period 6. The development of the doctrine in the Reformation period 7. The Tridentine decree of justification 8. The legacy of the English Reformation 9. The modern period Appendix: a glossary of medieval soteriological terms Abbreviations Notes Bibliography Index.