The Quarterly National Accounts in real-time: an analysis of the revisions over the last decade
In this article, the revisions of the Portuguese Quarterly National Accounts over the last decade are analyzed. We assess the real-time behaviour of GDP estimates and corresponding expenditure and supply side components. In particular, we focus on the revisions up to one year after the release of the fi rst estimate as well as on the revisions resulting from the inclusion of the Annual National Accounts. In the case of GDP, the reliability of the fl ash estimate, more recently made available by INE, is also assessed. The results for GDP suggest that the revisions up to one year are not signifi cant although the revisions can be larger when the Annual National Accounts are included. The expenditure components related with external trade present the largest revisions while the supply side estimates are more fragile than those from the expenditure side.
A Mixed Frequency Approach to Forecast Private Consumption with ATM/POS Data
The recent worldwide development and widespread use of electronic payment systems opened the opportunity to explore new data sources for monitoring macroeconomic activity. In this paper, we analyse the usefulness of data collected from Automated Teller Machines (ATM) and Points-Of-Sale (POS) for nowcasting and forecasting quarterly private consumption. To take advantage of the high frequency availability of such data, we use Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) regressions. A comparison of several MIDAS variants proposed in the literature is conducted, both single- and multiple variable models are considered, as well as different information sets within the quarter. Given the high penetration of ATM/POS technology in Portugal, it becomes a natural case study to assess its information content for tracking private consumption behaviour. We find that ATM/POS data displays better forecast performance than typical indicators, reinforcing the potential usefulness of this novel type of data among policymakers and practitioner.
Subject index
Adoptive immunotherapy A1, A63, A63, A64, A64, A65, A66, A68, A69, A69, A70, A70, A71, A71, A72, A72, A73, A73, A74, A75, A76, A78, A79, A79, A7, A80, A80, A81, A81, A82, A84, A85, A86, A86, A88, A88, A89, A90, A90, A91, A92, A93, A93, A94, A95, A95, A96, A96, A97, A97, A98, A98, A99, A99, A102, A103, A104, A104, A166, A167, A169, A170, A174, A177, A179, A181, A182, A199, A204, A205, A21, A215, A220, A231, A231, A243, A251, A254, A25, A276, A287, A304, A307, A310, A315, A316, A316, A329, A331, A333, A357, A358, A369, A405, A441, A442, A458, A458, A459, A459, A461, A461, A463, A468, A468, A479, A492, A497, A497, A56, A58, A58, A59, A60, A60, A61, 1, 100, 101, 102, 103, 104, 106, 109, 111, 112, 113, 114, 115, 116, 117, 119, 120, 122, 123, 124, 125, 127, 128, 129, 13, 130, 131, 133, 134, 136, 139, 140, 141, 142, 146, 147, 148, 149, 150, 152, 153, 154, 155, 156, 157, 158, 159, 160, 161, 163, 164, 165, 166, 167, 169, 173, 174, 175, 272, 273, 278, 280, 285, 290, 293, 297, 298, 324, 333, 335, 35, 353, 360, 379, 380, 400, 414, 418, 42, 454, 470, 493, 500, 504, 513, 515, 516, 542, 545, 549, 598, 599, 614, 675, 737, 739, 764, 765, 766, 767, 770, 771, 772, 780, 781, 801, 822, 830, 831, 89, 91, 92, 94, 95, 96, 98 Angiogenesis A108, A155, A171, A200, A201, A214, A228, A265, A305, A349, A350, A359, A410, A47, A48, A480, A483, A519, A5, 181, 257, 281, 327, 328, 351, 374, 435, 495, 583, 584, 602, 683, 76, 78, 802, 808, 873, 9 Antibody A7, A73, A81, A86, A91, A8, A99, A9, A104, A108, A108, A109, A109, A111, A115, A119, A126, A128, A130, A135, A138, A141, A144, A151, A153, A159, A160, A163, A164, A164, A171, A172, A175, A176, A2, A187, A193, A193, A195, A195, A198, A199, A20, A209, A212, A225, A229, A230, A23, A233, A233, A235, A239, A239, A240, A242, A244, A244, A245, A245, A246, A247, A247, A24, A250, A256, A260, A261, A266, A267, A268, A269, A273, A275, A286, A288, A292, A293, A296, A299, A300, A307, A3, A308, A31, A318, A324, A35, A334, A334, A336, A338, A339, A342, A343, A344, A344, A346, A346, A351, A351, A353, A356, A360, A361, A363, A368, A369, A370, A371, A372, A372, A373, A374, A376, A377, A378, A378, A379, A379, A380, A380, A388, A391, A399, A399, A41, A402, A410, A410, A411, A412, A414, A417, A418, A419, A419, A420, A422, A422, A423, A426, A427, A428, A428, A430, A431, A432, A434, A434, A435, A446, A454, A455, A459, A463, A465, A468, A468, A469, A474, A481, A483, A50, A486, A487, A491, A502, A502, A504, A507, A507, A508, A510, A511, A512, A512, A516, 12, 122, 133, 141, 151, 16, 167, 17, 174, 181, 182, 184, 185, 188, 195, 203, 210, 215, 218, 227, 231, 237, 243, 250, 253, 261, 262, 265, 267, 268, 281, 282, 287, 288, 3, 305, 313, 315, 317, 318, 323, 325, 34, 342, 348, 369, 377, 378, 38, 384, 385, 387, 393, 394, 395, 399, 401, 402, 403, 404, 405, 406, 407, 41, 412, 421, 428, 429, 438, 439, 442, 443, 450, 453, 469, 472, 476, 478, 480, 483, 486, 499, 5, 501, 51, 519, 531, 55, 550, 552, 557, 561, 562, 569, 571, 572, 573, 576, 578, 586, 587, 590, 594, 603, 605, 607, 612, 615, 616, 617, 618, 619, 621, 622, 626, 629, 630, 631, 632, 633, 634, 635, 647, 653, 665, 666, 67, 670, 683, 684, 686, 687, 690, 693, 696, 697, 698, 699, 702, 703, 704, 711, 713, 714, 715, 718, 721, 722, 725, 726, 727, 745, 757, 760, 766, 772, 776, 780, 781, 785, 793, 804, 808, 81, 812, 814, 820, 842, 843, 846, 851, 852, 853, 856, 858, 860, 861, 869 Antigen presenting cells A67, A79, A80, A92, A95, A96, A99, A99, A101, A102, A102, A108, A108, A111, A129, A139, A160, A166, A177, A178, A183, A191, A191, A213, A220, A221, A245, A254, A256, A262, A266, A275, A314, A322, A327, A328, A35, A335, A345, A359, A359, A360, A361, A364, A366, A368, A369, A371, A372, A403, A409, A411, A411, A418, A422, A433, A449, A48, A468, A471, A472, A4, A50, A495, A502, A506, A513, A514, A515, 108, 128, 130, 153, 157, 160, 166, 167, 168, 169, 170, 181, 182, 188, 217, 235, 263, 271, 290, 291, 299, 310, 311, 349, 360, 362, 404, 418, 421, 431, 438, 453, 510, 526, 538, 540, 55, 553, 575, 601, 602, 603, 605, 610, 611, 612, 615, 617, 618, 672, 682, 685, 686, 695, 703, 724, 748, 78, 780, 787, 790, 8, 81, 828, 842, 849, 862, 864, 868 Autoimmunity A8, A116, A15, A180, A181, A22, A380, A387, A394, A395, A402, A408, A502, A510, 16, 197, 27, 295, 296, 37, 637, 645, 657, 658, 671, 680, 843, 856