Reducing the blunders in forecasting
Abstract Forecasting is going through a crisis, partly attributable to its failure to anticipate so many developments (including the present recession). Specific problems that need tackling by the research community include the tendency to exclude the less quantifiable factors; the difficulties of identifying, relating and foreseeing explanatory variables; assessing degrees of uncertainty; and making the best use of consultants. Prospective analysis, in which forecasts are generated in the light of scenarios, can assist those concerned with actions and the future.
The accuracy of technological forecasts, 1890–1940
Abstract Predictions of future technological changes and the effects of those changes, made by Americans between 1890 and 1940, are compared to the actual outcomes. Overall, less than half of the predictions have been fulfilled or are in the process of fulfilment. The accuracy of predictions appears at best weakly related to general technical expertise, and unrelated to specific expertise. One expert (or non-expert) appears to be as good a predictor as another. Predictions of continuing status quo are not significantly more or less accurate than predictions of change. Predictions of the effects of technology are significantly less accurate than predictions of technological changes.
The Potential and Economics of Enhanced Oil Recovery
This chapter discusses the potential and economics of enhanced oil recovery (EOR). The portion of remaining oil that will be recovered through EOR and the rate of EOR production are subjects of considerable controversy. In a study, each reservoir in the Big Fields file was tested for its potential for tertiary recovery. The approach was first to screen out those reservoirs having low potential for tertiary recovery and second to select the tertiary recovery technique most suitable for the remaining high potential reservoirs. Timing assumptions and reservoir development costs were assigned to each EOR project. The timing for reservoir development considered the time required to study a reservoir, test a pilot, assess the economics, and develop across the entire reservoir.