World stock market: more sizeable trend reversal likely in February/March 2010
Based on our "finance-prediction-oriented" methodology which involves such elements as log-periodic self-similarity, the universal preferred scaling factor lambda=2, and allows a phenomenon of the "super-bubble" we analyze the 2009 world stock market (here represented by the SP500, Hang Seng and WIG) development. We identify elements that indicate the third decade of September 2009 as a time limit for the present bull market phase which is thus to be followed by a significant correction. In this context we also interpret the Chinese stock market index SSE. The third decade of September 2009 was accompanied with a stock market correction typically within the range of 4-5% worldwide. Taking into account the market patterns that followed the time of delivering the previous scenario we present an updated scenario whose critical time corresponds to October 28, 2009. Assuming quite evident (as of November 12, 2009) termination of the correction due to the above critical time we extend - consistently with our methodology - the stock market forecasting scenario. The corresponding expected SP500 future trend is shown in Fig. 5 and it supports a potential average continuation of increases to as far into the future as the turn of February/March 2010. We also indicate the log-periodic patterns on the gold market and they point to the end of November 2009 as the time when the trend reversal - likely local however - is expected to begin.
Shocks in financial markets, price expectation, and damped harmonic oscillators
Using a modified damped harmonic oscillator model equivalent to a model of market dynamics with price expectations, we analyze the reaction of financial markets to shocks. In order to do this, we gather data from indices of a variety of financial markets for the 1987 Black Monday, the Russian crisis of 1998, the crash after September 11th (2001), and the recent downturn of markets due to the subprime mortgage crisis in the USA (2008). Analyzing those data we were able to establish the amount by which each market felt the shocks, a dampening factor which expresses the capacity of a market of absorving a shock, and also a frequency related with volatility after the shock. The results gauge the efficiency of different markets in recovering from such shocks, and measure some level of dependence between them. We also show, using the correlation matrices between the indices used, that financial markets are now much more connected than they were two decades ago.
Training and maintaining the performance of dogs (Canis familiaris) on an increasing number of odor discriminations in a controlled setting
Abstract The number of substances detector dogs are trained to detect varies depending on the mission of the agency they serve. No studies have been conducted concerning how training multiple odor discriminations affects detection performance and refresher training requirements. This study used a controlled field setting to examine the effects of training dogs to detect multiple substances on their subsequent detection performance and refresher training requirements. Dogs were first trained to detect a single odor. Their detection performance was tested 10 days later and refresher training was then given to bring their performance back up to a predetermined standard. Following refresher training, detection of a new substance was trained, and approximately 10 days later the detection of both trained substances was tested. This sequence of testing, refresher training, and new odor training continued every 10 days until the dogs had been trained and tested on 10 odors. The detection of previously learned odors did not decrease as the number of substances trained increased. In fact, the amount of training required to refresh detection performance and to train new odor discriminations tended to decrease as more odor discriminations were trained.