Hazardous immorality: strategic externalization of risk and credit pricing
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the risks caused by “hazardously immoral” contracts which force external parties to bear significant losses without their consent.Design/methodology/approach – The expectation of substantial future losses raises the question of how investors can become profitable by entering into such risky contracts. The authors investigate the use of such contracts, which obscure the expected cost of failure by not only concentrating risks but ultimately not taking routine charges for predictable, albeit uncertain, future losses. In their investigation, the authors look at a risk concentration strategy and discuss expected profits (losses) under conditions of limited and unlimited liability.Findings – It is found that companies are more likely to minimize losses and maximize profits if they can obtain credit at a low enough interest rate and externalize the majority of the risk. Risks are more likely to be externalized when government and/or international agencies bail o...
Bet doubling in gambling and investing
Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to analyze strategies for gamblers/investors to increase their chances of reaching certain monetary and/or survival goals while facing a losing proposition. Design/methodology/approach - The paper investigates the use of credit by gamblers/investors as a means of increasing their expected survival time and thus their likelihood of winning. The paper considers a strategy in which a gambler/investor engages in bet doubling and uses credit to maximize the probability of winning a specified amount. Findings - The model presented in this paper identifies the amount of credit that will make it possible for a gambler/investor to become a winner with an arbitrarily high degree of probability, even while facing a losing proposition. However, bet doubling can lead to large losses, and negative profits can be expected if the gambler/investor is faced with unfavorable odds. As an extension, the paper considers the impact of limited liability and finds that in that case, total losses are restricted and the gambler/investor can expect a positive net gain even while facing a losing proposition. It is also shown that the cost of obtaining credit is an important consideration and that it is ill-advised for a gambler/investor to engage in such a strategy when the cost of credit is high relative to the probability of winning. Originality/value - Although bet doubling is not new to the gambling literature, this paper considers the use of credit as a means of increasing survival time and expected net gain. Applications of the model are particularly useful to gamblers/investors when credit can be obtained at low costs.
A Multifractal Walk down Wall Street
Individual investors and professional stock and currency traders know better than ever that prices quoted in any financial market often change with heart-stopping swiftness. Fortunes are made and lost in sudden bursts of activity when the market seems to speed up and the volatility soars. Last September, for instance, the stock for Alcatel, A French telecommunications equipment manufacturer, dropped about 40 percent one day and fell another 6 percent over the next few days. In a reversal, the stock shot up 10 percent on the fourth day.