Economic Crisis Unleashes Deep Recession in Austria – Stabilization Expected at Year-End
According to the June 2009 economic outlook of the Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB), the Austrian economy is projected to enter a deep recession in 2009 owing to the global slump in growth, with real GDP set to shrink by 4.2%. After further declining by a modest 0.4% in 2010, positive real annual GDP growth of 1.2% will reemerge only in 2011. Compared with the OeNB December 2008 economic outlook, growth expectations for 2009 and 2010 were downgraded by 3.9 and 1.2 percentage points respectively. This major revision reflects the steep slump in the demand for exports and investment – unparalleled in the post-war period. The current downturn is so pronounced that GDP levels seen in 2007 will not return until 2011. HICP inflation will ease from 3.2% in 2008 to a mere 0.4% in 2009 and rise modestly to 1.1% and 1.2% in 2010 and 2011 respectively.
The Interest Rate Pass-Through in Austria – Effects of the Financial Crisis
Lending rates are a key element in the transmission of monetary impulses to the real economy, even more so in bank-based financial systems such as the Austrian one. This article examines whether the turbulence in the financial markets and the – according to banks – resulting difficulties in raising funds in money and capital markets has led to a change in the passthrough of money market interest rates to retail interest rates. This study finds that there has been a statistically significant temporary change in the relationship between market and lending rates since July 2007 for some loan categories. However, contrary to expectations, lending rates (for business and housing loans with rate fixation periods of one to five years) were increased less than the historical correlation would have suggested. One possible explanation for this is the prevalence of relationship banking in Austria, which results in banks protecting their customers from too much volatility in interest rates. Overall, however, we do not ascertain any significant deviation from the historical pattern.
Lending rate stickiness and monetary transmission mechanism: the case of Canada and the United States
This paper examines the short-run and long-run impacts of changes in money market rates on lending rates in Canada and the US. This is done using an error-correction modelling framework, which distinguishes short-term impacts from long-run or full equilibrium effects. It is found that lending rates in the US have been stickier than those in Canada. However, the US lending rate rigidity, measured by the impact multiplier, has decreased in recent years. In contrast, Canada's lending rate has become stickier during the 1990s. The differences in adjustment speed between the two countries are attributed to the structure of their financial systems.