ESTABLISHING BOUNDING INTERNAL DOSE ESTIMATES FOR THORIUM ACTIVITIES AT ROCKY FLATS
As part of an evaluation of a Special Exposure Cohort petition filed on behalf of workers at the Rocky Flats Plant, the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) was required to demonstrate that bounding values could be established for radiation doses due to the potential intake of all radionuclides present at the facility. The main radioactive elements of interest at Rocky Flats were plutonium and uranium, but much smaller quantities of several other elements, including thorium, were occasionally handled at the site. Bounding potential doses from thorium has proven challenging at other sites due to the early historical difficulty in detecting this element through urinalysis methods and the relatively high internal dose delivered per unit intake. This paper reports the results of NIOSH’s investigation of the uses of thorium at Rocky Flats and provides bounding dose reconstructions for these operations. During this investigation, NIOSH reviewed unclassified reports, unclassified extracts of classified materials, material balance and inventory ledgers, monthly progress reports from various groups, and health physics field logbooks, and conducted interviews with former Rocky Flats workers. Thorium operations included: (1) an experimental metal forming project with 240 kg of thorium in 1960; (2) the use of pre-formed parts in weapons mockups; (3) the removal of 228Th from 233U; (4) numerous analytical procedures involving trace quantities of thorium; and (5) the possible experimental use of thorium as a mold coating compound. The thorium handling operations at Rocky Flats were limited in scope, well-monitored and documented, and potential doses can be bounded.
The NIOSH Radiation Dose Reconstruction Project: managing technical challenges.
Approximately two years after promulgation of the Energy Employees Occupational Illness Compensation Program Act, the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health Office of Compensation and Analysis Support selected a contractor team to perform many aspects of the radiation dose reconstruction process. The project scope and schedule necessitated the development of an organization involving a comparatively large number of health physicists. From the initial stages, there were many technical and managerial challenges that required continuous planning, integration, and conflict resolution. This paper identifies those challenges and describes the resolutions and lessons learned. These insights are hopefully useful to managers of similar scientific projects, especially those requiring significant data, technical methods, and calculations. The most complex challenge has been to complete defensible, individualized dose reconstructions that support timely compensation decisions at an acceptable production level. Adherence to applying claimant-favorable and transparent science consistent with the requirements of the Act has been the key to establishing credibility, which is essential to this large and complex project involving tens of thousands of individual stakeholders. The initial challenges included garnering sufficient and capable scientific staff, developing an effective infrastructure, establishing necessary methods and procedures, and integrating activities to ensure consistent, quality products. The continuing challenges include maintaining the project focus on recommending a compensation determination (rather than generating an accurate dose reconstruction), managing the associated very large data and information management challenges, and ensuring quality control and assurance in the presence of an evolving infrastructure. The lessons learned concern project credibility, claimant favorability, project priorities, quality and consistency, and critical path project activities.
INTERACTIVE RADIOEPIDEMIOLOGICAL PROGRAM (IREP): A WEB-BASED TOOL FOR ESTIMATING PROBABILITY OF CAUSATION/ASSIGNED SHARE OF RADIOGENIC CANCERS
The Interactive RadioEpidemiological Program (IREP) is a Web-based, interactive computer code that is used to estimate the probability that a given cancer in an individual was induced by given exposures to ionizing radiation. IREP was developed by a Working Group of the National Cancer Institute and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and was adopted and modified by the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) for use in adjudicating claims for compensation for cancer under the Energy Employees Occupational Illness Compensation Program Act of 2000. In this paper, the quantity calculated in IREP is referred to as “probability of causation/assigned share” (PC/AS). PC/AS for a given cancer in an individual is calculated on the basis of an estimate of the excess relative risk (ERR) associated with given radiation exposures and the relationship PC/AS = ERR/ERR+1. IREP accounts for uncertainties in calculating probability distributions of ERR and PC/AS. An accounting of uncertainty is necessary when decisions about granting claims for compensation for cancer are made on the basis of an estimate of the upper 99% credibility limit of PC/AS to give claimants the “benefit of the doubt.” This paper discusses models and methods incorporated in IREP to estimate ERR and PC/AS. Approaches to accounting for uncertainty are emphasized, and limitations of IREP are discussed. Although IREP is intended to provide unbiased estimates of ERR and PC/AS and their uncertainties to represent the current state of knowledge, there are situations described in this paper in which NIOSH, as a matter of policy, makes assumptions that give a higher estimate of the upper 99% credibility limit of PC/AS than other plausible alternatives and, thus, are more favorable to claimants.