The Importance of Risk Factor Analysis for Romania’s National Security in the 2020 Perspective
Besides the main current challenges of the security environment generated by regional conflicts, instability or tensions, there are asymmetric threats which are already traditional, as well as new threats determined by the rapid pace of the technological advancement and by the proliferation of the new technologies. In this context, one of the few certainties in the less and less predictable present security environment is that the intelligence analysis plays an essential role in reducing the uncertainties that the Information Age has generated or amplified. The elaboration of any analysis concerning the risk factors for national security in the period 2014-2020, from the perspective of the specific scopes of interest (political-military, economic, social, environmental and technological), shall pursue to provide strategic knowledge to the decision factors. In this context, the methodology of research proposes to analyse, by the use of the scenario planning, the evolution of certain processes or phenomena at the national and regional level; to signal the appearance or amplification of negative effects or of potential risks for the security interests of the country and of its allies; to foresee the manifestation forms of the threats/risks for the national security on medium and long term; to supply useful forecasts for supporting the political, economic or social decisions. In general, the scenario planning is used for exploring the possible manifestation conditions of a situation, starting from a set of proposals/working hypotheses, each scenario representing a distinct plausible future.
Qu'est-ce que la sécurité nationale ?
La securite nationale tire sa specificite, essentiellement, de la plasticite de son contenu que refletent les definitions contrastees qui structurent son champ disciplinaire. Cet article tente de montrer que cette indecidabilite conceptuelle sous-tend nos problemes methodologiques. Il integre cette contestabilite semantique au cœur de son projet, delimite les secteurs saillants de la securite nationale et en enonce les conditionnements. Reunies, ces reflexions permettent, a travers une methode analytique, de concilier la triade, ontologie – de quoi est faite la securite nationale ? –, epistemologie – comment l’etudie-t-on ? – et politique – quelles sont les variables qui influencent sa mise en œuvre ?
Analysis: The Agenda 2007 Proposals: Evolution or Revolution?
On 10 February 2004 the Commission published its proposal for the financial perspective 2007-2013. A week later it adopted the third report on economic and social cohesion. These two documents form the basis of the so-called ‘Agenda 2007 reforms’. They will be the greatest challenge for the enlarged EU after the intergovernmental conference, since they will determine the financial basis for EU policy-making until the middle of the next decade. The Agenda 2007 proposals certainly hint at courageous reforms, because they place a previously unheard-of emphasis on performance and quality. Under the proposals, structural operations should generate value for money, and the funds should focus on projects which generate added value at a European level. Overall the Commission’s proposals point in the right direction, because they balance, on the one hand, solidarity for the new Member States and weak regions in the old Member States with, on the other hand, investments in future tasks. Moreover, they constitute a paradigm shift. For the first time, the Common Agricultural Policy will not be the dominant expenditure category. Now it is up to the Member States to examine the proposals politically and find a compromise between sometimes very divergent interests. It is to be hoped that, during the debate over expenditure limits and division of funds, national interests do not outweigh European interests.