Exploring the Impact of Agricultural Price and Trade Policy Reform under Transition in Albania
Agricultural policy decision making in economies undergoing transition to market is in need of empirical tools for assessing the impact of alternative policy options. The econometric means available for such exercise, however, are limited for lack of data and structural breaks in economic behaviour. Synthetic, partial equilibrium, multi-market models offer a potential alternative. Such models have been used extensively, even in advanced economies, to offer valuable insights on the impact of alternative policy options. This paper shows the use of such a partial equilibrium, multi-market, synthetic-type model as a tool for agricultural policy analysis in a country in transition. The model is applied for Albania, a predominantly agricultural country that, after a period of centralism and autarky, aims to re-join the international economic system. The model, albeit its many limitations, offers some useful insights on the impact of alternative options available for agricultural price and trade policy.
EU enlargement and the Common Agricultural Policy: The case of Slovenia
The paper aims at assessing the economic effects of Slovenia ’s accession to the EU. For this purpose, a sector model of Slovenian agriculture APAS-PAM has been constructed. The methodological framework allows for assessment of market, income and competitiveness effects for ten key agricultural products with consideration of two accession scenarios (optimistic EUe and pessimistic EUp) that describe the whole range of possible accession effects. Slovenia ’s accession to the EU will not increase agricultural production significantly. Accession under the scenario of complete acceptance of the CAP mechanisms and quasi equal treatment by the EU (EUe) will not bring significant changes to aggregate production and income levels with moderate changes on commodity basis. Discrimination of the candidate countries in the field of direct payments and non-competitive down-stream sector assumed by the EUp– subscenario will significantly deteriorate the income situation of domestic producers. This holds especially for cereal and beef production. For many commodities, the competitiveness of the food processing industry assuming different price levels for raw materials could have much greater impact on the economic situation of agricultural production than agricultural policy environment itself.
Germination ecology of Central Asian Stipa spp: differences among species, seed provenances, and the importance of field studies
Stipa-species are wide-spread in Central Asia, but sexual reproduction in the dry steppes is rare. To facilitate conservation and restoration of these important rangelands, we studied germination characteristics of three common Mongolian Stipa-species under field- and lab conditions. Seeds of Stipa krylovii, Stipa gobica and Stipa glareosa were sown at the study site in Southern Mongolia over two consecutive years during which period tests were carried out to ascertain whether competition or herbivory are the main constraints of seedling establishment. In addition, we tested germination and seed viability in the laboratory under two different temperature regimes (20/10°C and 8/4°C), as well as the effect of cold-stratification. The lab experiments also included S. krylovii seeds originating from three climatically different provenances. None of the three Stipa-species seedlings emerged during the first 2 years of the field study. However, after an unusually intense rain event in the third year, 3% of S. krylovii, 0.6% of S. glareosa and 0.1% of S. gobica seeds germinated in the study plots. The factors ‘sowing-year’ and ‘vegetation’ significantly affected seedling emergence, whereas grazing had no effect at all. Under laboratory conditions a high percentage of viable seeds of S. gobica and S. glareosa germinated at both incubation temperatures, and cold-stratification had no effect on germination or viability. Germination of S. krylovii seeds required warmer temperatures and cold-stratification had a positive effect. Such evidence for dormancy was more pronounced in seeds from the moister, northern provenances. Germination of Stipa-species in the field is rare and only possible under exceptionally moist conditions. Conservation should thus concentrate on steppe conservation rather than on restoration. Where artificial reseeding is necessary, differences among species and also among different seed provenances should be taken into account.