Slope stability monitoring from microseismic field using polarization methodology
Numerical simulation of seismoacoustic emission (SAE) associated with fracturing in zones of shear stress concentration shows that SAE signals are polarized along the stress direction. The proposed polarization methodology for monitoring of slope stability makes use of three-component recording of the microseismic field on a slope in order to pick the signals of slope processes by filtering and polarization analysis. Slope activity is indicated by rather strong roughly horizontal polarization of the respective portion of the field in the direction of slope dip. The methodology was tested in microseismic observations on a landslide slope in the Northern Tien-Shan (Kyrgyzstan).
Avalanching glacier instabilities: Review on processes and early warning perspectives
Avalanching glacier instabilities are gravity‐driven rupture phenomena that might cause major disasters, especially when they are at the origin of a chain of processes. Reliably forecasting such events combined with a timely evacuation of endangered inhabited areas often constitute the most efficient action. Recently, considerable efforts in monitoring, analyzing, and modeling such phenomena have led to significant advances in destabilization process understanding, improving early warning perspectives. The purpose of this paper is to review the recent progress in this domain. Three different types of instabilities can be identified depending on the thermal properties of the ice/bed interface. If cold (1), the maturation of the rupture is associated with a typical time evolution of surface velocities and passive seismic activity. A prediction of the final break off is possible using these precursory signs. For the two other types, water plays a key role in the development of the instability. If the ice/bed interface is partly temperate (2), the presence of meltwater may reduce the basal resistance, which promotes the instability. No clear and easily detectable precursory signs are known in this case, and the only way to infer any potential instability is to monitor the temporal evolution of the thermal regime. The last type of instability (3) concerns steep temperate glacier tongues switching for several days/weeks during the melting season into a so‐called “active phase” followed in rare cases by a major break‐off event. Although the prediction of such events is still far from being achievable, critical conditions promoting the final instability can be identified.
The costs of identifying undiagnosed prostate cancer in asymptomatic men in New Zealand general practice
Background. Screening for prostate cancer (PCa) using the prostate-specific antigen (PSA) test is widespread in New Zealand. 3 informed testing history in 2007–09 were NZ$8887 compared to NZ$13 870 if the men had PSA tests in 2007–09. If we assumed a PSA test involved a full 15-minute general practice consultation, the estimated costs increased to NZ$26 877 per PCa identified. Conclusions. Screening of asymptomatic men for PCa is widely practiced. Most of the costs of screening were incurred in general practice. Calls for men to receive increased information on the harms and benefits of screening will substantially increase the costs. The current costs could be reduced by better targeting of screening.