An Impact of Gas Prices on Transit Demand Using a Time-series Analysis and a Regression Analysis
Abstract Depending most of its energy sources on foreign countries, Korea efforts to reduce energy consumption in transportation. While studies on the relationship between gas price and transportation demand are many in number, most previous studies have focused on automobile and Seoul. This study analyzes the impact of gas price on transit (bus and subway) demand using monthly data and for various metropolitan areas (Seoul, Busan, Daejeon, Daegu and Gwangju). The research utilizes a time-series model and a multiple regression model, and calculates modal demand elasticities of gas price. The result shows that elasticities of subway demand with respect to gas price is higher than those of bus demand. In addition, elasticities of predominantly automobile cities are more likely to be more sensitive to gas price than those of cities with well-structured transit system.국내에서 소비되는 에너지의 대부분을 해외에 의존하고 있는 우리나라는 교통부문에서도 에너지 절감을 위해 많은 노력을 하고 있다 . 휘발유가격과 교통수요와의 관계는 국내외적으로 꾸준히 연구되어 왔으나 국내 선행연구는 승용차 및 수도권 중심으로 연구되어 왔다 . 본 연구에서는 휘발유가격이 대중교통수요에 미치는 영향을 분석하며 월별 자료를 활용하여 대중교통 수단별 (버스, 도시철도) 및 광역권별(수도권, 부산, 대전, 대구, 광주)로 실증적으로 비교분석했다. 분석을 위해 시계열모형과 다중회귀모형을 사용하였으며 회귀모형의 계수를 활용하여 유가에 대한 대중교통수요의 탄력성을 비교하였다 . 유가에 대한 수요탄력성이 버스보다 도시철도가 높게 나타났고 , 대중교통체계가 잘 갖춰진 수도권보다 승용차 의존적인 지방 광역권이 유가에 더 민감한 것으로 나타났다 .
Econometric models for public transport forecasting
This paper presents the findings from an econometric analysis of public transport patronage growth for a selection of New Zealand cities: Auckland, Wellington, Hamilton and Tauranga. The primary objective of the econometric analysis was to provide an explanation of historic growth patterns and, in doing so, provide up-to-date public transport elasticities for use by transport planners and policy analysts. The econometric methods employed differ from conventional approaches because we used panel data models to analyse patronage patterns at a disaggregated level (ie bus route, bus corridor or train line) rather than at a network or city level. We consider that this approach produces more accurate estimates and demonstrates that statistical methods can be used to lpost-evaluater the effectiveness of past public transport investments and the impacts of fare increases. The econometric methodology was developed by DMK Consulting and was designed to ensure that the findings were thoroughly-researched and statistically robust. The development and implementation of this econometric methodology took from 2009 to 2012 to complete.
DESIGN CONSIDERATION TO PPM KLYSTRONS FOR INDUSTRIAL LINAC
Toshiba has been developing the C-band and X-band Periodic Permanent Magnet (PPM) focused klystron in collaboration with KEK and manufactured prototypes for the JLC project. [1] The PPM klystron has an advantage to enhance the total efficiency as a result of eliminating the electric power for the focusing magnet. From experience on the development the PPM focused klystrons for the JLC project, we plan to apply the PPM focused klystron to the medical and industrial linac. The periodic magnet focusing scheme has some technical difficulties such as stop band voltage. To design the PPM klystron for the medical and industrial linac, it is necessary to give heed to electron beam instability; so that the tube parameters of the PPM focused klystrons have some constraints. The size of the accelerator system is substantially reduced if a PPM focused klystron is used. The majority of medical and industrial linacs use frequencies of S-band range. We discuss the availability of the S-band PPM focused klystron in this paper.