Reserve Option Mechanism : Does it Work as an Automatic Stabilizer?
Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) designed and implemented a new scheme since end-2011, called reserve options mechanism (ROM) in order to alleviate the adverse impact of capital flow volatility on the domestic economy. Although there are numerous studies on the mechanics of ROM, there has been no attempt to investigate the determinants of the ROM utilization in practice. In this paper, we aim to fill this gap by using bank-level data to assess the behavioral aspects of ROM. Our results suggest that the relative cost of Turkish lira funding to foreign currency funding as well as the reserve option coefficients set by the CBRT largely explains the variations in the ROM utilization. We find that the most relevant proxy for the cost of Turkish lira funding for banks is overnight money market interest rates and the weighted average cost of CBRT funding. Moreover, foreign currency liquidity does not seem to be a significant parameter in driving the utilization of ROM. We argue that the systematic policy induced movements in the short term domestic interest rates—higher during outflows, lower during inflows—may undermine the automatic stabilizer feature of ROM. And we propose an adjustment in the remuneration of reserve requirements to strengthen the automatic stabilizer effect of ROM.
A brief assessment of Turkey's macroprudential policy approach: 2011–2015
The predominant role of cross border financial flows for macroeconomic and financial stability has imposed complex policy trade-offs for emerging economies, especially after the global financial crisis. This note provides a brief account of the macroprudential policy approach adopted in Turkey between the years 2011 and 2015, a period when global capital flows exhibited unprecedented volatility. Special emphasis is put on the use of monetary policy tools for macroprudential purposes. We first highlight the particular role of external flows and the associated tradeoffs in designing the monetary policy and macroprudential policy framework. Next, we describe the policy implementation by the central bank and the regulatory authorities, and evaluate the consequent outcomes. Our analysis suggests that macroprudential policies have improved external balances, dampened financial amplification channels, and reduced the sensitivity of the Turkish economy to capital flows.
Complexity, Network-Decisions And Alternative Risk Premia: Some New Theories Of Structural Change And Portfolio Decisions.
Structural Change is the basis for many decisions such as government fiscal and monetary policies, government interventions, corporate-expenditure decisions, corporate strategic decisions, portfolio management decisions in finance; household allocation decisions, etc.. Structural change in industries and national economies is increasingly more difficult to detect partly because of the growth and dominance of Complex Systems and “Networks” in modern industries and economies – such Networks and Complex Systems include GVCs (global value chains), retail store networks; franchising networks; internet networks; services networks; credit-chains in industries; online social networks; etc.. The relationship between Complexity and Structural Change is well established in the physics, applied math and economic dynamics literatures. Traditional definitions and modeling of structural change have erroneously focused on changes in labor, technological progress, market share, and or capital – which are grossly inadequate in the new economy and post- global financial crisis (as confirmed by changes in the global retailing and housing industries and other industries). Also the modeling of structural change seems to be constrained by the availability of data, and often omits the relationship between structural change on one hand, and globalization, financial stability and international financial contagion. This article: i) introduces the Operations Strategy Model of structural change, explains how it differs from the Lewis Model of Structural Change; and explains the often omitted relationship between operations strategy (of companies and government agencies) and structural change; ii) introduces other new Complexity-based models/theories of Structural Change in industries; iii) reviews the relationships among Operations Research, Complexity and Structural Change; iv) explains the symbiotic relationship between structural change on one hand, and economic growth, financial stability, financial contagion and globalization; v) discusses the significant gap between academic research and practice and explains some issues and factors that should be considered in the development and testing of structural change models; vi) explains how alternative risk premia can be generated from new models of Structural Change.