Consistency and Pythagoras
Pythagorean win share has been one of the fundamental contributions to Sabermetrics. Several hundred articles, both academic and non-academic, have explored variations on Bill James' original formula and its fit to empirical data. This paper considers a variation that is previously unexplored on any systematic level, consistency. After discussing several important contributions to the line of literature, we demonstrate the strong correlation between Pythagorean residuals and several notions of run distribution consistency. Finally, we select the "correct" form of consistency and use it to construct a simple regression estimator, which improves RMSE by 11%.
Confidence Intervals for the Pythagorean Formula in Baseball
In this paper, we will investigate the problem of obtaining confidence intervals for a baseball team’s Pythagorean expectation, i.e. their expected winning percentage and expected games won. We study this problem from two different perspectives. First, in the framework of regression models, we obtain confidence intervals for prediction, i.e. more formally, prediction intervals for a new observation, on the basis of historical binomial data for Major League Baseball teams from the 1901 through 2009 seasons, and apply this to the 2009 MLB regular season. We also obtain a Scheffe-type simultaneous prediction band and use it to tabulate predicted winning percentages and their prediction intervals, corresponding to a range of values for log(RS/RA). Second, parametric bootstrap simulation is introduced as a data-driven, computer-intensive approach to numerically computing confidence intervals for a team’s expected winning percentage. Under the assumption that runs scored per game and runs allowed per game are random variables following independent Weibull distributions, we numerically calculate confidence intervals for the Pythagorean expectation via parametric bootstrap simulation on the basis of each team’s runs scored per game and runs allowed per game from the 2009 MLB regular season. The interval estimates, from either framework, allow us to infer with better certainty as to which teams are performing above or below expectations. It is seen that the bootstrap confidence intervals appear to be better at detecting which teams are performing above or below expectations than the prediction intervals obtained in the regression framework.
Reflection coefficient of inhomogeneous anisotropic impedance plane
Solved the problem of constructive synthesis of an inhomogeneous anisotropic impedance plane reflecting a homogeneous plane wave in two different preset directions on a matched and cross polarization. Obtained the reflection coefficients and expressions for the scattering diagrams. The impedance is implemented by the frequent array of orthogonal strips. The law of distribution of the reactance was obtained in an explicit form. It is shown that for arbitrarily given (unequal) directions of reflections on matched and cross polarizations, the orientation of the reactance strips turns out to be variable along the plane. Formulated restrictions on class of implemented scattering diagrams. Shown the results of numerical studies.