When foresight seems impeccable, things still go wrong. Why?
Purpose – This article seeks to provide a systematic examination of the unanticipated results following the introduction of various types of new policy, process, design, product or service.Design/methodology/approach – A rough taxonomy categorizes the generic kinds of unintentional consequences.Findings – Careless political, technical, commercial, military or even personal decisions often underlie the most problematic of secondary effects.Originality/value – Unscheduled second‐ or third‐order effects have often been attributed to a “law” governing such phenomena. Although no such law exists, there exist indeed the unwanted effects – and sometimes on a grand scale, too often a bane of humankind.
Strategic Assessment in War
How do military organizations assess strategic policy in war? In this book Scott Gartner develops a theory to explain how military and government leaders evaluate wartime performance, how much they change strategies in response to this evaluation, and why they are frequently at odds when discussing the success or failure of strategic performance. Blending history, decision theory, and mathematical modeling, Gartner argues that military personnel do reevaluate their strategies and that they measure the performance of a strategy through quantitative, "dominant" indicators. But different actors within a government use different indicators of success: some will see the strategy as succeeding when others see it as failing because of their different dominant indicators. Gartner tests his argument with three case studies: the British shift to convoys in World War I following the German imposition of unrestricted submarine warfare; the lack of change in British naval policy in the Battle of the Atlantic following the German introduction of Wolf Packs in World War II; and the American decision to deescalate in Vietnam after the Tet Offensive. He also tests his approach in a nonwar situation, analyzing the Carter Administration's decision to launch the hostage rescue attempt. In each case, his dominant indicator model better predicts the observed behavior than either a standard-organization or an action-reaction approach.
Commentary: Scholarship as a Way of Life—Character and Virtue in the Age of Big Humanities
From the Renaissance to the nineteenth century, most European scholars considered moral cultivation as the primary purpose of the humanities. The humanities were human not just because they concerned the products of the human mind but also because they transformed scholars and students into better human beings. During the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, the rise of Big Humanities questioned this moral purpose. However, Big Humanities also reemphasized the importance of epistemic virtues for scholarship. The language of epistemic virtues helped scholars create new communities of learning and scholarship. Within these communities, the language of virtues established common standards of collaboration and granted scholars a sense of purpose. Many of these scholars also continued to associate epistemic virtues with moral virtues.