Population Growth and Development Prospects for Pakistan
Since its founding Pakistan has exhibited a continuously high rate of population growth. When measured by population size it has moved from the thirteenth largest country in 1950 to the seventh largest country in 1996 (Table 1). Today Pakikan exhibits the highest rate of growth among the world's largest countries, and according to some projections will become the third most populated country in the world by the year 2050 [United Nations (1998)]. Given the country's present resources, this magnitude of population growth has serious implications for the social and economic well-being of the people of Pakistan. A staggering statistic shows that the area now constituting Pakistan which had only 16.6 million people at the turn of the century, will surpass the 150 million mark by the new millennium (less than a year away).
Importance of a Population Policy in Pakistan
The primary purpose of this lecture is to make a case for an integrated and effective population policy in Pakistan. An effective population policy is critical in its own right. It is also essential for maximising the positive outcome of all of Pakistan’s development efforts. Despite some very modest progress, the overall population growth rate is still so high that it warrants serious concern. Among the top ten contributors to world population growth during 1995–2000, Pakistan stood third in absolute number, and was Number One in rate of growth. The average total fertility rate per woman of 5.2 in Pakistan, as compared to 2.4 in Indonesia, 2.9 in Iran, and 3.1 in India, is indeed problematic and requires an appropriate policy response. A broader view of population growth and economic development is suggested instead of a narrow family planning focus. Thus family planning programmes (supply-side) would be effective only when the population at large has the desire or motivation for smaller families (demand-side). It is shown that the demand-side of the equation is influenced by a host of social, cultural, religious, educational, and other factors. For purposes of this paper, all these are taken together and termed the knowledge factor. It is suggested that a successful population policy must have a clear focus on increasing the knowledge factor in the country through education and advocacy. Based on the policy experiences of other developing countries and the recent demographic realities in Pakistan, an effective population policy must address the following three objectives: (a) reduction in the rate and incidence of unwanted fertility; (b) reduction in demand for large-size families; and (c) greater investment in adolescents to tackle the population momentum problem. The lecture concludes that Pakistan still has a population problem that it must deal with by a comprehensive and effective population programme. Failure to do so would magnify the current problems which are a result of previous policy neglect.
Drivers of Live Cattle Price in the Livestock Trading System of Central Cameroon
Livestock production and trade are critical for the food security and welfare of rural households in sub-Saharan Africa. In Cameroon, animal trade consists mainly of live cattle commercialized through livestock markets. Identifying the factors contributing to cattle price formation is critical for designing effective policies for sustainable production and for increasing food availability. In this study, we evaluated the influence of a range of individual- and market-level factors on the price of cattle that were sold in all transactions (n = 118,017) recorded over a 12-month period from 31 livestock markets in the main cattle production area of the country. An information-theoretic approach using a generalized additive mixed-effect model was implemented to select the best explanatory model as well as evaluate the robustness of the identified drivers and the predictive ability of the model. The age and gender of the cattle traded were consistently found to be important drivers of the price (p < 0.01). Also, strong, but complex, relationships were found between cattle prices and both local human and bovine population densities. Finally, the model highlighted a positive association between the number of incoming trading connections of a livestock market and the price of the traded live cattle (p < 0.01). Although our analysis did not account for factors informing on specific phenotypic traits nor breed characteristics of cattle traded, nearly 50% of the observed variation in live cattle prices was explained by the final model. Ultimately, our model gives a large scale overview of drivers of cattle price formation in Cameroon and to our knowledge is the first study of this scale in Central Africa. Our findings represent an important milestone in designing efficient and sustainable animal health management programme in Cameroon and ensure livelihood sustainability for rural households.