The DPRK Energy Sector: Current Status and Future Engagement Options
This report discusses the history, current status, and potential future of the DPRK energy sector. The authors, drawing on the Nautilus Institute's decades of work on North Korea, describes the history of the DPRK energy sector, in particular changes in the sector since 1990. The study then looks at the current status and supply and demand balance of North Korea's energy sector noting the vulnerabilities and critical needs of that sector. The report also explores options for the rehabilitation of the DPRK energy sector that could be used in negotiations with North Korea as part of a 'roadmap' to denuclearization and legitimate energy needs if negotiations are not successful and the DPRK either collapses (due to an internal coup, succession crisis, or war) or continues to stagnate. The report concludes by identifying the robust strategies that are important in both engagement and non-engagement (collapse or stagnation) scenarios.
North Korean Trade with China as Reported in Chinese Customs Statistics: 1995-2009 Energy and Minerals Trends and Implications
China is North Korea’s largest international trading partner. Since 2000, fuels and minerals have become a larger portion of North Korean exports and a smaller portion of imports. North Korea remains a net importer of Chinese crude oil and oil products; however, it became a net exporter of electricity and coal to China in 2003. Aside from coal, imports and exports of metallic minerals and mining equipment are growing segments of China-North Korea trade. Whereas North Korean electricity and iron ore exports are sold at sub-market “friendship prices” Chinese coal and oil products have been sold to North Korea at premium prices. Chinese Customs data suggest that Beijing is taking a pragmatic, market-oriented approach to trade with its reclusive neighbor, while the increasingly asymmetrical energy embodiment of bilateral trade may reflect deterioration of North Korea’s non-military industries.
International energy assistance needs and options for the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK)
Recent agreements between the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) and the other countries involved in the six-party talks on the future of the DPRK's nuclear weapons program have focused attention on the North Korean energy sector, and, specifically, what the international community can or should do to assist the DPRK in energy sector redevelopment. During two visits to North Korea in 1998 and 2000, a team of American and North Korean researchers conducted a unique rural energy use survey in a flood-affected rural village in the DPRK-the farming village of Unhari. The information gathered during the survey has important implications on how to properly approach the ongoing rural energy crisis in the DPRK, and, more broadly, to provide overall energy sector assistance. The results of the Unhari survey are described briefly, followed by suggestions of internal policy and legal reforms, approaches to international cooperation, key and attractive energy sector technologies and processes for energy sector redevelopment in the DPRK.