Timor Leste: Strong Government, Weak State
Introduction On 4 December 2002 hundreds of demonstrators rampaged through Dili targeting "foreign" properties, including a supermarket and two hotels, and the homes of the Prime Minister, Mari Alkatiri, and his immediate family. Rioters also attacked Dili's An Mur Mosque, which some saw as an anti-Islamic or anti-Indonesian action, but may well have been aimed at the Mosque's most well-known member, Alkatiri himself. The crowd also chanted anti-police slogans. The government of Timor Leste1 is yet to release a full report on the reasons for the riot, which left two protesters dead and others injured, most likely related to the decision of the police to use live rounds to control the crowd. Rumours have abounded as to who the crowd were and what they wanted. Variously they are described as students, the unemployed, former militia men and policemen from Indonesian times, or even a rival group from Alkatiri's own party, Fretilin (and various combinations of all these groupings). While it was popular to speak of agitators, the fact that a crowd was so easy to mobilize was worrying and indicative of underlying tensions towards the government, the police, and foreign businesses. Dire predictions of widespread chaos did not, however, eventuate. Instead, the security threat to Timor Leste continues to remain a latent, but very real, threat. Pro-Indonesian militia elements still present an irritant to the border security of Timor Leste, causing concerns about the ability of Timor Leste to control its own security with the winding down of the United Nations mission. Yet a threat from within Timor Leste caused a great deal of concern within government circles, namely, the difficulties from ex-Falintil guerrilla fighters who were left out of government hiring after independence. A war of words continues with a hardcore of radical veterans insisting on a return to the 1975 Constitution, a suspension of the current government and a complete with drawal of the United Nations. Security forces have also struggled to control criminal elements that have emerged throughout the province.
The Perils and Promises of Democratization through United Nations Transitional Authority – Lessons from Cambodia and East Timor
This article compares democratization under the aegis of the United Nations in Cambodia and East Timor. The analysis points to the inherent contradictions and problems of democratization in post-conflict situations and discusses the difficult issue of timing. It draws four generalized conclusions about democratization through international interim governments in post-conflict societies. First, UN-led interim governments can provide a solution to the problems of civil strife, insecurity, and political instability in disrupted states. Second, democratization through international interim governments in civil-war countries can be successful if the transitional authority is able to maintain a stable ‘hurting balance of power’ and to guarantee the parties' compliance with democratic procedures. Third, international interim regimes like UNTAC are designed on the premise that reconciliation among the domestic parties is possible. If the premise turns out to be inaccurate, the very foundation of the peace process is challenged and it will be almost impossible successfully to adjust the interim government's institutional structure. Fourth, the cases of Cambodia and East Timor demonstrate that democratization must be embedded in a comprehensive agenda of political, social, and economic methods of peace-building. If interim governments end before the roots of democracy are deep enough and before democratic institutions are strong enough to stand alone, then the entire endeavour may fail.
VLA stereoscopy of solar active regions. 2: Altitude, relative motion, and center-to-limb darkening of 20 centimeter emission
A newly developed method of stereoscopic correlation is applied to solar radio maps at a wavelength of 20 cm. On the basis of stereoscopic correlations between radio maps obtained on 6 different days we establish the presence of 66 radio source components associated with 22 active regions. We find the following statistical results for active region source structures at 20 cm: 1. The observed lifetime is consistent with an exponential distribution having an e-folding time scale of greater than 18 days. 2. The average altitude of 20 cm sources is 25 +/- 15 Mm; 90% of the sources are found in heights less than 40 Mm. 3. The average diameter of discrete source structures is 48 +/- 15 Mm, implying a vertical/horizontal aspect ratio of q(sub A) approx. = 0.5. 4. No significant source motion has been found with respect to the standard differential rotation rate of Omega = 13.45 deg - ((3 deg (sin(exp 2)B)). 5. We find a statistical limb darkening, which can be described by the relation (T(sub B)(alpha))/T(sub B)(0)) = 0.4 + ((0.6(cos(exp 2) alpha)) for sources with T(sub B) greater than 0.5 MK. 6. The degree of source polarization is 15% +/- 10% and is independent of source location. 7. Bright sources (greater than or approximately equal to 0.5 MK), or equivalently, long-lived sources (greater than or approximately equal to 5 days) show a systematic variation of their altitude as function of the center-limb distance.