Population projections for Malawi and its regions, 1998-2023
Introduction The main objective of this paper is to critically evaluate the most recent projections prepared by the National Statistical Office (NSO) and provide alternative projections for Malawi. The Epidemic Projection Package (EPP) developed by UNAIDS and the SPECTRUM programme developed by the Futures Group were used to model the Malawian HIV epidemic, to project future trends in HIV/AIDS and population and to estimate the demographic impact of AIDS. The national HIV prevalence surveys among pregnant women from 1985 to 2000 served as the data sets used to calibrate the input HIV prevalence values for the model, while demographic data obtained from the 1998 Malawi Population and Housing Census acted as a base for population projections. The results indicate that the population of Malawi will continue to grow despite the negative impact of HIV/AIDS epidemic. The population of Malawi is expected to increase from 9.92 million in 1998 to 13.52 in 2010 and to 16.84 million in 2020. The population projections presented in this study are not about predicting the future so much as they are about exploring the consequences of today’s trends. These are intended to show what the future will look like if today’s trends continue for the next decade or two. As in the case of Malawi, the predicted future is sufficiently undesirable that it should serve to focus our attention on implementing programmes today that will protect people from HIV infection and promise a brighter future. Population projection is a scientific attempt to peep into the future population scenario, conditioned by making certain assumptions, using data relating to the past available at that point of time. Predicting the future course of human fertility, mortality and migration is not easy, especially when looking beyond much further in time. Medical and health intervention strategies, food production and its equitable availability, climatic variability, socio-cultural setting, political economic conditions and a host of other factors influence population dynamics, making it a somewhat unpredictable exercise. Therefore, caution must be exercised when either making or using the population projections, and the context of various conditions imposed should not be lost sight of on the basis of past behaviour and the likely future scenario assumed. Different population projections at the country level are made by the Government and National and International agencies from time to time. In addition, individual demographers make projections for the country as a whole and sometimes at the subnational level. The international agencies that make projections for the world as a whole and for individual countries are the United Nations Population Division, the World Bank and United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) etc., (see for example, United Nations, 2003). One major problem with population projections by international organisations is the need to come up with comparable statistics. A recent report from the US Bureau of Census notes: ‘Not only must the assumptions be appropriate for the particular country in question, but consistent assumptions must be made when projections are carried out for more than one country’. For Malawi, with an apparent high population growth rate, continued high but slowly declining fertility, worsening mortality due to HIV/AIDS epidemic, young age structure, recurrent drought and associated famine, rampant poverty and its ongoing social, economic and political changes, the need of population projections cannot be overemphasised. With decentralisation process there is a need to come up with population data at regional, district and sub district levels. The paper intends to achieve two objectives. First, to review the existing population projections especially those prepared by the National Statistical Office (NSO). Second, to prepare fresh population projections for Malawi using 1998 as a base. This paper commences with an overview of population projections in Malawi including a brief discussion of the weaknesses of existing population projections. This is followed by a review of existing population projections of the population of Malawi and a discussion of the method used for the projections in this publication. Population projection methodologies vary widely in terms of degree of sophistication, data requirements and detail of results. There is not any methodology that can be considered to yield absolute error-free results. It should be noted that the accuracy of the projections does not only depend on the calculations involved, but also on the assumptions underlying future levels of fertility, mortality and migration as well as on the accuracy of the base year population data. Since the mid-1980s, NSO has prepared four sets of population projections (Malawi Government, 1984, 1994, 2002, 2003). The first detailed sets of official national population projections were prepared by the NSO in 1984 based on the 1977 census (Malawi Government, 1984). These were based on three differing fertility assumptions and two mortality assumptions. In particular, fertility was assumed to remain constant; to decline at a slow pace and to decline at a fast pace. Mortality was assumed to remain constant and to continue to decline at a slow pace. In either case, international migration was assumed to be negligible. Surprisingly, even at a time when this assumption was being made, some Mozambican refugees were trekking into Malawi! The NSO recommended that constant fertility and slow decline in mortality scenario should be used for planning as it was deemed to be realistic. The second set was prepared in 1994 using the 1987 census as a base (Malawi Government, 1994). In this case three sets of projections were introduced to cover the period 1987 to 2012. The projections were based on one mortality assumption (slow decline) and three fertility assumptions (constant, slow decline and fast decline). The variant based on slow decline in fertility and slow decline in mortality was recommended for planning 1 Population Projections in Malawi POPULATION PROJECTIONS FOR MALAWI AND ITS REGIONS, 1998-2023 17
A Preliminary Assessment of the Quality of the 1998 Malawi Population and Housing Census Data
The preliminary results of the 1998 Malawi Population and Housing Census (MPHC) indicate that the population of Malawi is 9.8 million. This figure is less than estimates prepared by most national and international institutions including renowned population specialists working on the population of Malawi. Nearly all-available population projections estimated that the population of Malawi in 1998 would be around 11 million. The aforementioned discrepancy has some serious consequences. First the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita may be distorted in such a way as to suggest a general improvement in the quality of life contrary to the situation. Second the results of the census may be interpreted to indicate the success of the national population program especially the national family planning program. As a result of these consequences there is need to evaluate the census results to verify whether the reported figure is indeed correct or to provide a plausible explanation for the anomaly. Though not prescriptive the paper offers plausible explanation for the observed differences. In particular the paper argues that the population figure obtained from the 1998 census like most other censuses in developing countries were underreported. (authors)
Exopolysaccharide biosynthesis and related enzyme activities of the medicinal fungus, Ganoderma lucidum, grown on lactose in a bioreactor
Exopolysaccharide (EPS) production and biosynthesis were studied in Ganoderma lucidum, a fungus used in traditional Chinese medicine, grown with lactose in a bioreactor. β-Galactosidase activity, which implies the existence of a lactose permease system, was induced by lactose. Lactose feeding also increased α-phosphoglucomutase activity and EPS accumulation but decreased phosphoglucose isomerase activity and lactate concentration in the culture broth. A maximum cell density of 22 g l−1 and EPS at 1.25 g l−1 were obtained in fed-batch bioreactor culture.