Reducing the blunders in forecasting
Abstract Forecasting is going through a crisis, partly attributable to its failure to anticipate so many developments (including the present recession). Specific problems that need tackling by the research community include the tendency to exclude the less quantifiable factors; the difficulties of identifying, relating and foreseeing explanatory variables; assessing degrees of uncertainty; and making the best use of consultants. Prospective analysis, in which forecasts are generated in the light of scenarios, can assist those concerned with actions and the future.
Videotex Terminal Based On Personal Computer
The primary aim of the La Trobe University Online Media Program is to undertake social and policy research into the development of online media services. The Research Program has three research streams. They are: Research Stream 1: New Media and Communication Environments. Organisational, regulatory and technological change is occurring at such a rapid pace that it is difficult decide on the outcome of change. Service providers are as uncertain as potential users about the viability or usefulness of new services. This stream of research examines the role of the new media in people's lives. Research Stream 2: Emerging industry structures The shape of the media, communication, publishing and computing industries is rapidly changing. Most of those changes are being brought about through strategic alliances between discrete elements of multi-functional and often competing organisations, and linkages with smaller start-up companies which have developed innovative products and services. For the first time "carriers" are having to pay attention to "content", software-based services and consumer electronics. These industry changes are occurring as the various industries "internationalise" and as governments remove layers of regulatory control. As a consequence the restructuring of media, communication, publishing and computing industries raise important questions for the industry participants and government policy makers. New media and communications services have led to the emergence of organisations where management responsibilities are distributed globally. This stream of the program explores the use of online services in a national and international research context. About the Author Sandy Kyrish is a Research Associate in the La Trobe University Online Media Program. She is interested in past and present predictions about new communications technologies, and their relationship to the social and technological factors that affect the likely acceptance of these tools. Kyrish holds a Ph.D. in telecommunications from Temple University in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, where she is Director of the University's On-Line Learning program and an adjunct faculty member in the School of Communications and Theater. Her work combines academic and industry-oriented approaches to telecommunications. Her professional career includes considerable experience in the design and installation of video, audio, and teleconferencing systems. She has drawn on her technical background and customer liaison experiences to provide consulting advice for a variety of telecommunications companies, including AT&T, Kyrish is active in research, having authored articles for academic and industry journals and a book chapter on videoconferencing technology. She has an affinity with, and strong interest in Australia; besides …
Taxation of Crude Oil, Gasoline, and Related Fuels and Commodities
The complexities of domestic crude-oil pricing policies are outlined and a wellhead tax is proposed as an alternative to decontrol. This would be an alternative that encourages production and is still equitable. The author considers the exemption of stripper oil from price controls to be unfair and suggests that excise taxes or nonprice rationing measures be used to reduce consumption in oil-importing countries. Economic analyses of supplies are projected, using the current laws, and compared with estimates using tax revenues combined with subsidies. George M. Von Furstenberg questions only some points of emphasis in his comment. 22 references.