Economic Stimulus Packages: How to Explain Differences in the Level of Intensity in European Governments’ Response to the Financial Crisis?
Since the end of World War II, capitalism and liberalism have been viewed as the system of the rich and have led the world into a period of unprecedented economic growth and development. The recent financial and economic crisis, however, by its magnitude, has shaken the system significantly, and led many states to invest increasingly to sustain the economy and avoid a broader and more damaging collapse (in line with Keynesian theory). Through multilevel modelling of European state-level political, public finance and economic data, we investigated key drivers explaining differences in the level of intensity in European governments’ response to the financial crisis. First of all, politics can explain the volatile and mercantile side of the decisions. Secondly, also interesting is that monetary and public finance highlights the regulatory and financial pressure and constraints of the investment in the economic stimulus package. Thirdly, a macro-economic analysis can help us assess the link between the damage (economic crisis) and the remedies (stimulus packages). This thematic approach allowed us to assess key factors that influenced the governments in their decision making and explain the heterogeneity in the magnitude of response between countries.
How Resilient are Mortgage Backed Securities to Collateralized Debt Obligation Market Disruptions?
The mortgage-backed securities (MBS) market has experienced significant changes over the past couple of years. Non-agency ("private label") securities, which are not guaranteed by the government or the government sponsored enterprises, now account for the majority of MBS issued. In this report, we review the rise of collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), the relaxation of lending standards, and the implementation of loan mitigation practices. We analyze whether these structural changes have created an environment of understated risk to investors of MBS. We also measure the efficacy of ratings agencies when it comes to assessing market risk rather than credit risk. Our findings imply that even investment grade rated CDOs will experience significant losses if home prices depreciate. We conclude by providing several policy implications of our findings.
Collateralized Debt Obligations: Structures and Analysis
Preface. About the Authors. PART ONE: INTRODUCTION TO CASH CDOs. CHAPTER 1: Cash CDO Basics. Why Study CDOs? Understanding CDOs. Credit Structures. A CDO Structural Matrix. CDOs Being Offered Today. Parties to a CDO. CHAPTER 2: Cash Flow CDOs. Distribution of Cash Flows. Restrictions on Management: Safety Nets. Credit Ratings. Call Provisions in CDO Transactions. PART TWO: LOANS AND CLOs. CHAPTER 3: High-Yield Loans: Structure and Performance. The Loan Market. The Syndication Process. Loan Structure and Leaders. Loan Interest Rates and Upfront Fees. Loan Credit Quality. Lender's Liability. Overview of Loan Terms. Loan Terms versus Bond Terms. A Tale of Two Loans. The Secondary Market. Loan Recovery Rates. Loan Default Rates. High-Yield Loan CLO versus High-Yield Bond CBO Performance. Conclusion. CHAPTER 4. European Bank Loans and Middle Market Loans. European Bank Loans. Middle Market Loans. Conclusion. PART THREE: STURCTURED FINANCE CDOs AND COLLATERAL REVIEW. CHAPTER 5: Review of Structured Finance Collateral: Mortgage-Related Products. Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities. Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities. Real Estate Investment Trust Debt. CHAPTER 6: Review of Structured Finance Collateral: Nonmortgage ABS. Credit Card Receivable-Backed Securities. Auto Loan-Backed Securities. Student Loan-Backed Securities. SBA Loan-Backed Securities. Aircraft Lease-Backed Securities. Franchise Loan-Backed Securities. Rate Reduction Bonds. CHAPTER 7: Structured Finance Default and Recovery Rates. Structured Finance versus Corporate Default Rates. S&P Rating Transition Studies and the Matrix Multiplying Approach. Results of Multiplying S&P Rating Transition Matrices. S&P on Structured Finance Loss Given Default. S&P Constant Annual Default and Recoveries. Moody's Material Impairment Study. Comparing and Reconciling Structured Finance Default Rates. Moody's on Structured Finance Historical Loss Rates. Moody's Constant Annual Default and Recoveries. Blending S&P and Moody's Studies. Applying CDRs and Recoveries to SF CDOs. Conclusion. CHAPTER 8: Structured Finance Cash Flow CDOs. SF CDOs versus High-Yield CDOs. Rating Agencies on Structured Finance CDOs. Structured Finance Assets' Negative Convexity. Extension Risk. Conclusion. PART FOUR: OTHER TYPES OF CASH CDOs. CHAPTER 9: Emerging Market CDOs. EM Sovereign Bond Defaults. Why the Better Track Record? CDO Rating Differences: EM versus High Yield. Conclusion. CHAPTER 10: Market Value CDOs. Cash Flow versus Market Value Deals. The Rating Process. How Advance Rates Are Derived. Conclusion. PART FIVE: SYNTHETIC CDOs. CHAPTER 11: Introduction to Credit Default Swaps and Synthetic CDOs. Credit Default Swaps. Synthetic CDOs. Conclusion. CHAPTER 12: Synthetic Balance Sheet CDOs. Cash CLOs for Balance Sheet Management. Partially Funded Synthetic CDOs. Conclusion. CHAPTER 13: Synthetic Arbitrage CDOs. Full Capital Structure Synthetic Arbitrage CDOs. Single-Tranche CDOs. Standard Tranches of CDS Indices. Conclusion. CHAPTER 14: A Framework for Evaluating Trades in the Credit Derivatives Market. Assessing Single-Name and CDO Tranched Exposures. Assessing CDO Equity versus a Basket Swap. Conclusion. CHAPTER 15: Structured Finance Credit Default Swaps and Synthetic CDOs. Differences between Corporate and Structured Finance Credit. Difficulties in SF CDS. SF CDS Effect on SF CDO Management. Two New Types of SF CDOs. Effects of SF CDS on CDO Credit Quality and Spreads. Conclusion. PART SIX: DEFAULT CORRELATION.. CHAPTER 16: Default Correlation: The Basics. Default Correlation Defined. Default Probability and Default Correlation. Conclusion. CHAPTER 17: Empirical Default Correlations: Problems and Solutions. Empirical Results. Problems with Historical Default Correlations. Proposed Solutions. Conclusion. PART SEVEN: CDO EQUITY. CHAPTER 18: Why Buy CDO Equity? Nonrecourse Term Financing. The Forgiving Nature of CDO Financing. CDO Options. CDO Equity as a Defensive Strategy. Conclusion. CHAPTER 19: CDO Equity Returns and Return Correlation. Flawed Methodologies. The Appropriate Lesson from History. Loan Defaults and Recoveries. Cash Flow Modeling Defaults and Recoveries. Structured Finance Defaults and Recoveries. SF CDO Cash Flow Modeling. Return Correlation and Nonrecourse Leverage. Conclusion. PART EIGHT: OTHER CDO TOPICS. CHAPTER 20: Analytical Challenges in Secondary CDO Market Trading. Important Developments: Spread Tightening, Increased Activity. Pitfalls in Secondary CDO Trading. Eight-Point Checklist in Evaluating a CDO in the Secondary Market. Prescription for Making Primary Issuances Conducive to Secondary Trading. Conclusion. CHAPTER 21: The CDO Arbitrage. Building Blocks. Impact of CDO Arbitrage on Structure. Conclusion. CHAPTER 22: How to Evaluate a CDO and Manage a CDO Portfolio. Incentive Clashes in CDO Structures. Evaluate Structural Enhancements. Evaluating the Manager's Track Record. Conclusion. CHAPTER 23: Quantifying Single-Name Risk Across CDOs. Collateral Overlap in U.S. CLOs. Favorite CLO Credits. Collateral Overlap in U.S. Structured Finance CDOs. Single-Name Risk and Tranche Protections. Excess Overcollateralization and Excess Overcollateralization Delta. Monte Carlo Simulation of Single Credit Risk. Comparing the Two Approaches. Conclusion. CHAPTER 24: CDO Rating Experience. CDO Rating Downgrade Data. CDO and Tranche Rating Downgrade Frequency. CDO Downgrade Patterns. Why Downgrade Patterns? Downgrade Severity. Downgrades of Aaa CDO Tranches. Extreme Rating Downgrades. CDO Defaults and Near Defaults. Conclusion. INDEX.