The Croatian Banking System
This paper provides an analysis of the stability of the Croatian banking sector. After the banking crisis of 1998, the Croatian banking system underwent a deep transformation process; foreign investors gained a dominating market share of more than 90% of total assets, with Austrian banks holding 43% thereof. Compared to other Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs), the degree of banking intermediation is relatively high in Croatia. In recent years, lending to the private sector and in particular to households has risen whereas lending to the general government has declined. Foreign currencies continue to play an important role in the Croatian banking sector, in particular on the liabilities side of banks balance sheets. While maintaining a large negative net foreign currency position on their balance sheets (with an increasing portion of net liabilities to nonresidents), Croatian banks overall net foreign currency position seems to be marginally positive. Still, foreign currency(-indexed) lending represents a credit risk as it entails an indirect exchange rate risk. Asset quality, by contrast, has improved significantly over the past five years, the capital adequacy ratio is on a relatively high — albeit declining — level, and real return on equity (ROE) is now as high as the profitability levels observed in other CEECs.
Policy measures and failures on foreign currency household lending in central and eastern Europe
I found that during booming years national policy makers were strongly constrained to decrease or effectively manage the risks of unhedged foreign currency lending (FCL) to households due to the economic characteristics of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Strong FCL growth was mainly driven by private sector consumption and investment. Foreign banking groups easily intermediated international financing into open CEE markets. International measures, which could have limited FCL, were not taken. I found an inconsistency: FCL was primarily a result of macroeconomic imbalances, but macroeconomic policies mostly proved inefficient to downsize it. Administrative measures seemed to be the most effective, however, only for a short period due to the high degree of financial liberalisation. Regulatory measures proved less efficient, while relatively frequently used supervisory actions did not have any notable effects. Financial education, moral suasion, and market development measures (with the exception of long-term, fixed rate local currency (LC) housing finance) were not efficient at all. Out of 12 investigated countries 6 had some success to limit FCL. Others did not have any efficient policy mix. Comparing the experiences of Hungary and other countries I found that the ‘we cannot do anything’ is a worse policy approach than the ‘we will try to do something’ one in spite of its deficiencies. The euro membership could not automatically eliminate FCL as the example of Slovenia shows.
Does Foreign Ownership Contribute to Sounder Banks in Emerging Markets? The Latin American Experience
Foreign bank entrants into emerging markets are usually thought to improve the condition and performance of acquired institutions, and more generally to enhance local financial stability. We use bank-specific data for a range of Latin American countries since the mid-1990s to address elements of this claim. Across the seven largest countries, we find that the financial strength ratings of local banks acquired by foreign entities generally show a slight improvement relative to their domestic counterparts. Our more in-depth case studies of Chile, Colombia, and Argentina do not indicate striking differences in health between larger foreign and domestic retail-oriented banks (although state banks are noticeably weaker). However, foreign banks often have higher average loan growth, higher average provisioning expense, and greater loss-absorption capacity. These results suggest that foreign ownership may provide important positive influences on the stability and development of emerging market banking systems.