Conflict or cooperation? The role of India and Pakistan in post-2014 Afghanistan
AbstractAs the coalition forces prepare to exit Afghanistan, concerns regarding peace and stability in the country and future power balance after their departure are becoming paramount. While there will be a considerable American presence, focus has now shifted to local infrastructure and services - civil, military and political and their ability to further peace and progress in the country. Owing to the geostrategic landscape of Afghanistan, in addition to its long conflict ridden history with a significant presence of the Taliban, concerns regarding revival of conflict and violence are coming to the fore - particularly from traditional South Asian rivals i.e. India and Pakistan. Through an in-depth study of the political, economic, cultural and regional dimensions of this tri-lateral relationship, the following paper examines how there is a significant clash of interests and how there can cooperation between India and Pakistan in Afghanistan.Key Words: Afghanistan, Taliban, India-Pakistan relations, US withdrawal, new Great Game, Strategic DepthIntroductionDealing with the situation unfolding in Afghanistan and its ramifications present a formidable challenge, both for Afghanistan as well as regional and international players who have a stake in its future and have contributed significantly to efforts towards reconstruction of the war-torn nation. On May 27, 2014, US President Barack Obama announced that the last American troops would withdraw from Afghanistan by the end of 2016. However, this announcement needs to be further clarified. A Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) would permit a residual American military presence, some 9,800 US troops will remain in the country after 2014, with half of them slated to depart by the end of 2015. From 2015 onward, the remaining troops will train the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) for two more years, eventually leaving only a token force to protect the American embassy in Kabul (Grare, 2010). Nonetheless, the international community is willing to continue engagements in both civilians and military matters for ensuring economic development, security and political stability in Afghanistan (Yuasa, 2014, p.285).The decision of the US and its allies to withdraw troops from Afghanistan is a reflection of domestic political concerns and the large number of casualties. From 2001 until February 2012, the US-led coalition troops lost 2,884 soldiers, including 1,895 from the US alone (Chesser 2012, p.1-4). Based on this data, 2010 and 2011 were the deadliest years in Afghanistan. The Afghan Army and Police have also suffered the loss of roughly 4,000 members (Caldwell 2011 online). In addition to military casualties, the conflict has also claimed the lives of 2,080 civilians just in the year 2010. Even though American forces are preparing for withdrawal, the conflict in Afghanistan is far from over. There is overwhelming evidence of the resurgence of the Taliban and attacks on civilians and state infrastructure are on a rise. In addition, the political and military structure of Afghanistan continues to be weakened by factionalism and tribal rivalries, further clouding prospects for a peaceful transition after the withdrawal of foreign troops. According to Saghafi-Ameri (Saghafi-Ameri, 2012, p.1), "the main causes of the present situation in Afghanistan include lack of proper planning, shifting policies, inattention to geopolitical realities and over-reliance on military power without the necessary attention to development and civilian assistance plans".In such an environment, the involvement of local actors becomes preeminent in shaping the course of future events in Afghanistan. A key ally in the US led military action in Afghanistan is neighbouring Pakistan. A former ally of the Taliban and a country, which faces direct repercussions of conflict in Afghanistan owing to a large number of refugees, Pakistan has been at the forefront of reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan. …
Pakistan and Afghanistan: The Strategic Relationship
Until the Soviet military intervention in December 1979, Afghanistan had appeared largely as a political irritant for Pakistan, a petulant and resentful neighbor. The Afghan irredentism represented by the call for a Pushtunistan (an independent state for cross-border Pushtuns), although potentially a challenge to Pakistan's national integrity, was deemed manageable mainly because, economically and militarily, Afghanistan was no match for Pakistan. Pakistan's adversarial relations with India and domestic regional instability posed more serious problems for its national security. However, the deployment of Soviet troops, together with the arming of a government of Moscow's own making in Kabul, altered this picture by presenting what was perceived to be a geostrategic threat. Conceivably, the Soviets might hope to use Afghanistan as a stepping-stone to the Indian Ocean in fulfillment of the legendary Russian dream of a warmwater port. If, indeed, these were the intentions of the Soviet Union, then the presumed route taken would have been through Pakistan's port of Gwadar in Baluchistan and hence, perhaps, to control of the oil wealth of the Persian Gulf. In their worst moments, Pakistani planners could imagine having to fight a two-front war in which its army would face a pincer movement as the Soviets and their Afghan allies were joined by Pakistan's traditional adversary, India. Even if the Soviets had no intention of making a direct move against Pakistan, the danger existed that a war that dragged on could spill over, drawing in Pakistan as a combatant. A victory by the communists would leave a permanent border threat, especially since it was likely to include an indefinite Soviet military presence in Afghanistan. Once the Soviet military became bogged down in fighting the Afghan resistance, the possibility of a frontal attack on Pakistan diminished. More
Effect of superficial gas velocity on the particle temperature distribution in a fluidized bed with heat production
The heat transfer behavior of particles and gas in an olefin polymerization fluidized bed was numerically analyzed using an in-house developed 3-D computational fluid dynamics discrete element model (CFD-DEM). First the implementation of the model was verified by comparing simulation results with analytical results. A constant volumetric heat production rate was implemented in the particle energy equation to mimic the heat production due to the polymerization reaction. It was found that the probability density function (PDF) of the particle temperature becomes more homogeneous with increasing superficial gas velocity. Furthermore, instantaneous snapshots of the thermal driving force (the difference between the single particle temperature and bed-average gas temperature, Tp− ) for different heat production rates provide detailed insight in the particle temperature distribution inside the fluidized bed. The time- and bed-averaged particle convective heat transfer coefficient, which was calculated by Gunn׳s correlation, was found to be independent of the superficial gas velocity. This is explained by the fact that the relative velocity of gas and particles in the emulsion phase, where most of the particles and gas interact, is hardly influenced when increasing the gas superficial velocity. From the spatial distribution of Nusselt number, it becomes apparent that the high heat transfer regions are found in the wake of rising bubbles, whereas low heat transfer rates are found in the clouds of the bubbles.