Distribution of Export Price Risk in a Developing Country
We address the issue of social distribution of an aggregate risk (on agricultural export price), from a macroeconomic perspective. Individual incomes in representative social groups are computed as a function of export prices, which are assumed to be stochastic, using an applied general equilibrium model of an archetype developing economy. The statistical properties of the resulting distribution of individual incomes are then examined. We consider a mapping of different policies on agricultural prices (stabilization or complete pass-through), monetary rules (accommodating or not) and exchange rate regimes (fixed versus flexible).
What Drives Public Employment?
Excessive levels of government employment is one of the most frequent complaints made about public-sector governance in developing economies. The explanation typically offered is that governments have used public-sector employment as a tool for generating and redistributing rents. This paper suggests an alternative hypothesis for government employment practices: relatively safe government jobs represent partial insurance against undiversifiable external risk faced by the domestic economy. By providing a larger number of secure' jobs in the public sector, a government can counteract the income and consumption risk faced by the households in the economy. I show that countries that are greatly exposed to external risk have higher levels of government employment and have experienced faster rates of growth of government consumption. The basic finding on the (partial) correlation between government employment and exposure to external risk is robust against the alternative hypothesis that government employment has been driven by considerations of rent-seeking and rent distribution.
The Use of Qualitative Information in Macro-Economic Policy Analysis
The majority of macro-economic policy models takes for granted that conflicts among objectives can be assessed by means of a tradeoff analysis. Such tradeoffs imply that sacrifices and benefits of various impacts of decisions can be measured on a cardinal scale, so that a conventional macro-economic utility or welfare analysis can be applied.