A Simple Empirical Method for Predicting Library Circulations
Recent work has demonstrated that stochastic models, incorporating a time parameter, have great potential value for library management in predicting future use of library materials, particularly in the presence of ageing of materials. In this paper a simple empirical Bayes method is presented which avoids the analytic complexity of earlier models and which may therefore be more attractive to the library manager. In particular, the ‘prediction profile’ is advocated as a useful additon to the manager's toolbox.
Patron-Driven Acquisition and Circulation at an Academic Library: Interaction Effects and Circulation Performance of Print Books Acquired via Librarians’ Orders, Approval Plans, and Patrons’ Interlibrary Loan Requests
Numerous publications on patron-driven acquisition (PDA) for print books and similar materials have reported that patron-requested materials circulate more. Tying circulation to selector may be failing to address the complex of factors that contributes to items' circulation. In the present study, the authors revisit a PDA program's data and to determine whether PDA print books' circulation advantage persists when the potential interactions of several additional variables are taken into account. As with prior studies, library patrons were significantly better predictors of circulation than were librarians or approval plans. However, librarians proved to be significantly better predictors than were approval plans.
Letter to the Editor - A Comment on the Morse-Elston Model of Probabilistic Obsolescence
Morse and Elston have constructed a probabilistic model of obsolescence and fitted it to the circulation of books in a library. This note presents a modification of their model and fits it to their results to account for time dependence of their original parameter α. This revised model can be used to describe the phenomena of obsolescence as seen in such a case as the usage over time of books concerned with scientific subjects.