Money Supply and Economic Activity in South Africa – the Relationship Updated To 2011
This paper reconsiders the relationship between measures of money and measures of economic activity in the South African economy and the role of the Reserve Bank in moderating South African economic cycles. By using data for the past twenty years, the earlier analysis is updated and reassessed so that it is possible to see if the fundamental relationships between money, credit and economic activity have changed and whether the role of the Reserve Bank in managing economic activity has become more pivotal and constructive. One important difference noted is that broadly defined money (M3) does better in explaining economic activity between 2000 and 2011 than narrowly defined money. The opposite is true for the earlier sub-periods. The paper utilises a model of the money supply process to explain why the relationship between narrowly and broadly defined money changed after the year 2000 with regulations that encouraged the banks to reduce their demands for cash leading to an increase in the money multiplier. The paper concludes that the ability of the SA Reserve Bank to moderate the money and bank credit cycles, utilising interest rates as the primary instrument of monetary policy, remains as elusive as ever.
A historical perspective on the Federal Reserve's monetary aggregates
Data on the monetary aggregates are the fundamental raw material for research in many facets of economics and finance. Money demand modeling, measurement of money stock announcement effects, tests of the rationality of preliminary money stock forecasts and financial market efficiency, and comparison of alternative seasonal adjustment procedures are just a few such areas. Working in the spirit of Friedman and Schwartz, we chronicle the evolution of the Federal Reserve's monetary aggregates. Numerous changes in data sources, definitions, revision procedures, and seasonal adjustment methods suggest caution for all researchers using monetary aggregate time series data. A timeline compiled by Kenneth Kavajecz shows each redefinition, revision and special event that affected the monetary aggregates from 1960-1993.
Community refinement of glaucoma referrals
AbstractAim To describe a Manchester-based glaucoma referral refinement scheme designed to reduce the number of false-positive referrals to the hospital eye service. To report on the first years results of this scheme and its financial costs to the NHS.Methods Patients with suspected glaucoma, instead of being referred to their GP and then on to the hospital eye service, were referred to a group of specially trained community optometrists working to an agreed set of referral criteria. Those patients who did not meet the referral criteria were returned to the referring optometrist, while those who met the referral criteria were referred directly to Manchester Royal Eye Hospital. The patient's GP was informed in all cases.Results The number of suspect glaucoma cases referred to the Manchester Royal Eye Hospital was reduced by 40%. This figure is close to the percentage of false-positive referrals measured at Manchester Royal Eye Hospital prior to the onset of this study. The information accompanying referral has been improved and the scheme produces a small financial cost saving to the NHS of approximately £17 per patient.Conclusion Community refinement of suspect glaucoma offers some important benefits over the current referral pathway.