A medium and long-term carbon emission forecasting method for provincial power grid
The development of low-carbon electric power industry is a key way to deal with the greenhouse effect and lower the PM2.5. When integrated into power grid, renewable energy can efficiently cut down the output of the thermal power and reduce the carbon emission of the grid significantly. However, it lacks a more comprehensive and systematic approach to forecast a medium and long-term carbon emission for provincial power grid. Thus, in this paper, life cycle assessment (LCA) method and gray prediction model are used to forecast the medium and long-term carbon emission. In addition, the carbon intensity of provincial power grid is evaluated based on historical data such as electricity consumption, gross domestic product (GDP), carbon emission coefficient. Taking Jiangxi power grid as the example, the results indicate that the proposed method is of good accuracy and the integration of renewable energy can effectively reduce the carbon emission and the carbon intensity.
Improvement and Application of Grey Prediction GM(1,1) Model
This paper studied the process of prediction formula of grey prediction GM(1,1) model by automatic optimization and least squares methods.It was found that artificially giving the background value and the initial value in grey prediction GM(1,1) model was quiet unreasonable and exiting modified methods of grey prediction GM(1,1) model were not well enough.In order to improve the prediction precision of grey prediction GM(1,1) model,this paper proposed and used automatic optimization to select the background value and revised the initial value based on least squares theory,and then a new forecasting formula was put out.The results of empirical analysis indicates that,the proposed method is an effective and perfect,and the predictive effect of the improved grey prediction GM(1,1) model is much better.
The Invention of the Jewish People
'All modern nation states have a story of their origins, passed down through both official and popular culture, and yet few of these accounts have proved as divisive and influential as the Israeli national myth. The well-known tale of Jewish exile at the hands of the Romans during the first century AD, and the assertion of both cultural and racial continuity through to the Jewish people of the present day, resonates far beyond Israel's borders. Despite its use as a justification for Jewish settlement in Palestine and the project of a Greater Israel, there have been few scholarly investigations into the historical accuracy of the story as a whole. In this bold and ambitious new book, Shlomo Sand shows that the Israeli national myth has its origins in the nineteenth century, rather than in biblical times - when Jewish historians, like scholars in many other cultures, reconstituted an imagined people in order to model a future nation. Sand forensically dissects the official story - and demonstrates the construction of a nationalist myth and the collective mystification that this requires. A bestseller in Israel and France, Shlomo Sand's book has sparked a widespread and lively debate. Should the Jewish people regard themselves as genetically distinct and identifiable across the millennia - or should that doctrine now be left behind and if the myth of the Jewish state is dismantled, could this open a path toward a more inclusive Israeli state, content within its borders?'