A Simple Empirical Method for Predicting Library Circulations
Recent work has demonstrated that stochastic models, incorporating a time parameter, have great potential value for library management in predicting future use of library materials, particularly in the presence of ageing of materials. In this paper a simple empirical Bayes method is presented which avoids the analytic complexity of earlier models and which may therefore be more attractive to the library manager. In particular, the ‘prediction profile’ is advocated as a useful additon to the manager's toolbox.
A Simple stochastic Model for Library loans
A simple stochastic model for the borrowing of books from a library collection is proposed which explains some observed circulation frequency distributions. Use of the model requires the specification of just two parameters which may be calculated from the circulation statistics for a fixed period of time. These allow one then to make predictions regarding the patterns of likely future usage, and should assist therefore in determining the impact of any proposed relegation policy. The article is illustrated with data from the library of the University of Sussex, the Wishart Library of the University of Cambridge and from the published University of Pittsburgh study. In the latter case our conclusions differ from those of the original investigators.
MAKING ROOM FOR BOOKS
For every library, at some time, the question of removing some older books in order to make room for new ones must arise. In a personal library the owner can scrutinize each book and decide how inconvenient it would be to have it stored in a box somewhere rather than available on the shelves. A large library with many users requires some strategy for identifying the books to be scrutinized and perhaps stored; only two possible criteria can really be used, date of publication and use. In the case of periodicals, relegation by date is necessary if runs are to be kept in sequence. We discuss in this paper, therefore, only the problem of relegation of monographs, and restrict ourselves to relegation by use.