Projecting the future cost of the French elderly disabled allowance using a microsimulation model
Confronted with an ageing population, developed countries are facing the challenge of providing care to a growing number of disabled elderly people. Knowing how many they will be and, given the current pensions and welfare systems, how much it will cost to care for them is crucial to policymakers. The INSEE pensions microsimulation tool (called Destinie) was extended in 2011 to elderly disability, in preparation for a reform of the funding of elderly disability in France. Microsimulation at the individual level allows to take into account expected changes in the distribution of variables that influence the process under study. It also allows to simulate allowances based on complex, non-linear scales that require calculation at the individual level. This document describes the implementation method and the results of the forecasts. First, on the characteristics of the disabled elderly and presence of caregivers. Then, several alternative scenarios are studied and yield a range of estimates of the future cost of the allowance for elderly disability, ranging from 0.54% of GDP in the most optimistic scenario to 0.71% of GDP in the most pessimistic one.
La dépendance : aujourd’hui l’affaire des femmes, demain davantage celle des hommes ?
L'avancee en âge s'accompagne d'une augmentation des risques de perte d'autonomie, avec pour corollaire l'accroissement des situations de dependance, necessitant une aide. Du fait de leur surnombre, parce qu'elles vivent plus longtemps que les hommes et sont plus souvent qu'eux en situation de dependance aux grands âges, les femmes sont aujourd'hui les principales beneficiaires de l'aide a domicile. Elles sont egalement les principales pourvoyeuses d'aide au sein de la famille : ce sont essentiellement elles qui se mobilisent pour aider leurs parents et conjoint. Dans les decennies a venir, la population âgee va s'accroitre et les hommes y seront plus nombreux parmi les dependants et les aidants potentiels. Observera-t-on alors un reequilibrage des roles familiaux, et de quel type ? Le developpement de l'aide professionnelle a domicile ? Une prise en charge individuelle ou collective de ces couts ?
Global Occupational Health Issues
1. Occupational health problems in developing countries are more widespread and serious because they occur against a background of endemic risk factors for ill health. 2. In general, developing countries have less adequately developed occupational health personnel and programs and less adequately developed and enforced laws and regulations than developed countries. 3. Awareness of the importance of occupational health among workers, management, government officials, and the public is increasing with developing countries. 4. Occupational health professionals in developed countries can contribute in many ways to improving occupational health in developing countries.