Modeling Financial Type 2b Globalization and its Repercussion on the Real Economy
Abstract The description of economic globalization still lacks a comprehensive formal and normative theory. The Globalization Types Model is a proposal to bridge this deficiency. Having modeled the globalization of physical trade flows, the so-called type 1 globalization with its different logics of subtypes 1a, 1b, and 1c, the aim now is to describe the globalization of finance, i.e. type 2b, and to integrate it into the Globalization Types Model. This paper analyses the repercussion of financial transactions on the evolution of economic cycles. Due to the mutual interactions of different systems, the modeling is not based on state equations but on principles of system dynamics with its positive and negative feedback loops. It puts the emphasis not on equilibrium but on transition modeling, i.e. on the triggering of state change. The result is a cognitive model showing the influence and systemic effects of financial transactions performed on commodity exchanges causing increased volatility of commodity prices and the repercussion on the industry value-chain. The model links the speculative part of financial type 2b globalization to physical demand and trade flows of globalization type 1, capital investments of globalization type 2a, as well as human migration of globalization type 3a and unemployment.
World Trade and Associated Systems Risk of Global Inequality: Empirical Study of Globalization Evolution between 2003-2011 and Regional Pattern Analysis
Abstract The economy is globalizing. But how are the different economic world regions performing regarding globalization of trade flows? Why are they performing differently? Globalization is not only the increase of international trade between certain preferential geographic areas of economy, but also the resulting increase of interweavement of trade flows between different geographical areas, independent of the amount of trade. This paper analyzes the world trade flows between 2003 and 2011 and performs a cross-section analysis of the year 2011. The economic interweavement will be measured by an inequality risk metric applied to the supply-demand matrix. This risk indicator is based on the concept of statistical entropy resulting in an inequality risk measure, giving an indication for the degree of economic globalization and the evolution of globalization in different geographical regions. The result of this research shows that economic trade flows are globalizing but with clear different regional patterns. Indeed, the emerging economies such as China or the Middle East are globalizing whereas mature economies such as North America and Europe are de-globalizing, confirming for globalization the inverse Kuznets evolution. The different patterns between the different economic world regions can be explained by using the globalization type's model.
The Categorical Stability of Gambling Motives Among Community-Recruited Gamblers: A Longitudinal Assessment
Over the past decade, several motivational models have been proposed to explain the role of motives in gambling disorder. In the model captured by the four-factor Gambling Motives Questionnaire Financial (GMQ-F), gamblers are described as being primarily motivated to gamble for ‘coping’, ‘enhancement’, ‘social’, and ‘financial’ reasons. Although this model has received significant empirical support; to date, research assessing the role of motives in gambling disorder has been primarily cross-sectional in nature. Thus, the extent to which gambling motives remain stable over time has yet to be explored. In the current study, the stability versus fluidity of self-assessed gambling motives was investigated using the Quinte Longitudinal Study, a longitudinal dataset of gambling behaviour collected over 5 years. Gambling motives of 2795 gamblers were examined over all five annual assessments. The total proportion of gamblers who stayed in the same primary motive category across each of the 5 consecutive assessments was 22%, indicating substantial fluidity in category membership. Substantial movement between categories was seen for each GMQ-F group, as well as an additional group of non-classified motives. Logistic regression analyses suggest that greater resistance to gambling fallacies significantly predicted stability between the baseline assessment and a follow-up 1 year later, but gambling severity did not. Potential limitations in the study design and opportunities for future research are discussed.