The Southern African Customs Union: A Reappraisal
Abstract The paper attempts to evaluate, as far as possible quantitatively, the costs and benefits to the countries of the ‘Southern African periphery’ (Botswana, Lesotho and Swaziland) of participation with South Africa in the current customs union agreement. On balancing the agreement's measurable effects (on industrial development, exports, government revenue and the cost of living) against one another, it appears that on sanguine assumptions only, there would be a substantial benefit to Botswana and a much more moderate benefit to Lesotho if the customs union were dismantled and replaced by separately protected national markets. Such a calculation, however, neglects what may be the most important benefit and cost to the ‘peripheral’ countries of leaving the customs union, namely the increase of ‘economic independence’ and the risk of South African retaliation respectively: themes which are explored in the final section.
World Development Studies 10 Regionalization in Southern Afric a
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Mean field model of a game for power
Abstract Our aim is to model a game for power (equivalent to total energy) as a dynamical process, where an excess of power possessed by a player allows him to gain even more power. Such a positive feedback is often termed as the Matthew effect. Analytical and numerical methods allow to identify a set of stationary states, i.e. fixed points of the model dynamics. The positions of the unstable fixed points give an insight on the basins of attraction of the stable fixed points. The results are interpreted in terms of modeling of coercive power.