A network model that determines the optimal path of breed-crossing decisions to maximize net returns☆
Abstract A model for finding the sequence of breed-crossing decisions that maximizes the expected discounted net returns over a given number of generations is presented. The method is based on network analysis. The assumptions are that there is an initial breed of females, and that all females, in a generation will be mated to one of a given number of alternative breeds. The optimal path of breed-crossing decisions depends on the revenues expected from additive direct effects, maternal effects. breed-specific individual and maternal heterosis effects, and the cost associated with choosing a particular breed of sires. A simple numerical example is presented.
Scope for selecting many breeding stocks of possible economic value in the future
Current animal improvement deals largely with selection of stocks for current economic objectives. However, there is uncertainty about how well these objectives will hold in the future, since husbandry and marketing needs and conditions may change unpredictably over time. The scope for developing alternative stocks, selected for different chosen sets of objectives, is considered, so that by substitution or crossing it may be possible to reduce the uncertainty and better meet future needs and conditions. The reduction in uncertainty is modelled by including risk or uncertainty in the discount rate in assessing benefits over time from one cycle of selection. From the national viewpoint, the costs of developing alternative selection stocks are small relative to the possible returns. Thus, if the uncertainties were reduced by having them, a large number of such alternative stocks would be justified. The expected benefits to the community from animal breeding would also be increased thereby.
Avocado Flowering 1
The avocado (Persea americana Mill.) has increased in importance over the years in many countries around the world. The United States, Mexico and Brazil lead in world commercial production, while Israel, South Africa, Australia, New Zealand, the Philippines, Spain, Cyprus, Canary Islands, Chile, Ecuador, Venezuela, Greece, and the Caribbean area are actively increasing commercial production (B.O. Bergh, personal communication; Gustafson 1976). The history of the avocado has been detailed by Gustafson (1973, 1975,1976) and others (Bergh 1975b, Knight 1980; Popenoe 1924; Ruehle 1958; Schroeder 1958; Williams 1976). Several reviews have been published on various aspects of the avocado, including its botany (Knight 1980; Purseglove 1968; Williams 1976), breeding (Bergh 1975b), horticulture (Hodgson 1930b; Ruehle 1958; Ryerson et al. 1924), cultivars (Campbell and Malo 1976), and pollination (Gustafson and Bergh 1966). A recent collection of papers discussing the horticultural aspects of avocado production is found in Sauls et al. (1976).