Forecasting Inflation in Western Balkans - Does One Shoe Fit All?
Inflation is one of key policy variables in the European Union. Keeping inflation below 2 percent is the main proclaimed goal of the European Central Bank. Monitoring inflation dynamics is even more important for the EU candidate countries, as it forms a crucial part of the so called Maastricht criteria. For Western Balkan countries, which have all experienced a hyperinflation period at the first phase of transition, inflation awareness seems to be even more relevant than in case of old EU member states. Although the recent past evidence has shown that the Western Balkan countries have gone through the period of mild inflation rates, the underlying instabilities of their economies might bring about yet another inflation spin.However, a literature on the determinants of the inflation generation process in the Western Balkan countries is, with a few notable exceptions, scarce. Even less is publicly available on the forecasting practices of the region’s central banks. Since this variable is expected to be one of the most strictly monitored if and when Western Balkan countries realise their EU aspirations, the analysis provided in this paper will try to fill the existing gap in the literature.
Relationship between Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty: The Case of Serbia
The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty in the Serbian economy, being particularly vulnerable to shocks in inflation rate, during transition period 2001-2007. Based on monthly data several GARCH specifications are estimated providing measure for inflation uncertainty. Derived variables are then included in VAR model to test for Granger-causality between inflation and its uncertainty. Models that consider only permanent and transitory components of prices are also estimated to investigate inflation-uncertainty relationship in the long and the short run. Main conclusion of the paper is that high inflation invokes high uncertainty, while high uncertainty negatively affects level of inflation at long horizon.
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