Projections and forecasts in Australia: The context
Despite the considerable expansion of demographic projection activity in Australia over the past two decades, comparatively little of this work has found its way into the academic literature. This issue of the Journal attempts to address this deficiency by bringing together six distinctive contributions on various aspects of demographic projections and forecasting. The present introductory paper describes the context of this work and provides an overview of the papers which follow.
Population Forecasts for South Pacific Nations using Autoregressive Models 1985 — 2000
SummaryThis paper uses an autoregressive statistical model to forecast population for Fiji, Western Samoa, Tonga, Solomon Islands, and Vanuatu and compares these forecasts with those obtained from other methods. The growth rate of population is predicted to continue to fall in Fiji and Tonga, rise a little for Western Samoa, and rise considerably in Vanuatu and the Solomon Islands. The implications of the forecasts for recent government development plans are also discussed.
Impacts of social research on policy formulation: lessons from the Brazilian experience in the population field.

 Numerous changes in population growth and distribution patterns and significant social transformations have occurred in Brazil and 20 years of impressive population research have analyzed these changes. Quality demographic data have existed since 1940, and, since the early 1970s, the data base has expanded greatly. Yet Brazil has never set a distinct population policy nor employed population specialists to formulate the nation's views in population policy. This intimates that the interests and peculiarities of the predominant styles of development and of the dominant interest groups in any given time period filters any influence of population research. Hence, contrary to popular belief, Brazilian government planners determining programs and projects do not necessarily incorporate the results of demographic research into their decision making. Therefore, it is wrong to judge the quality of any population research, or of any social research, based on its confirmed influence, or lack of influence, on social policies and on planning in general. In addition, population researchers have different methodological outlooks, value orientations, and /or ideological commitments so the definition of scientific growth cannot be universally recognized. Nevertheless, in the long run, major advances in population policy can be attributed to a true increase in academic interest in population, and different interest groups have access to an improved data base and to the large amount of information available on demographic trends with which to discuss population problems and make adequate appraisals. In the short run, however, population research does not make a significant impact on population policy.
