The Importance of Risk Factor Analysis for Romania’s National Security in the 2020 Perspective
Besides the main current challenges of the security environment generated by regional conflicts, instability or tensions, there are asymmetric threats which are already traditional, as well as new threats determined by the rapid pace of the technological advancement and by the proliferation of the new technologies. In this context, one of the few certainties in the less and less predictable present security environment is that the intelligence analysis plays an essential role in reducing the uncertainties that the Information Age has generated or amplified. The elaboration of any analysis concerning the risk factors for national security in the period 2014-2020, from the perspective of the specific scopes of interest (political-military, economic, social, environmental and technological), shall pursue to provide strategic knowledge to the decision factors. In this context, the methodology of research proposes to analyse, by the use of the scenario planning, the evolution of certain processes or phenomena at the national and regional level; to signal the appearance or amplification of negative effects or of potential risks for the security interests of the country and of its allies; to foresee the manifestation forms of the threats/risks for the national security on medium and long term; to supply useful forecasts for supporting the political, economic or social decisions. In general, the scenario planning is used for exploring the possible manifestation conditions of a situation, starting from a set of proposals/working hypotheses, each scenario representing a distinct plausible future.
Qu'est-ce que la sécurité nationale ?
La securite nationale tire sa specificite, essentiellement, de la plasticite de son contenu que refletent les definitions contrastees qui structurent son champ disciplinaire. Cet article tente de montrer que cette indecidabilite conceptuelle sous-tend nos problemes methodologiques. Il integre cette contestabilite semantique au cœur de son projet, delimite les secteurs saillants de la securite nationale et en enonce les conditionnements. Reunies, ces reflexions permettent, a travers une methode analytique, de concilier la triade, ontologie – de quoi est faite la securite nationale ? –, epistemologie – comment l’etudie-t-on ? – et politique – quelles sont les variables qui influencent sa mise en œuvre ?
Techno-economic analysis of chemical looping combustion with humid air turbine power cycle
Abstract Power generation from fossil fuel-fired power plant is the largest single source of CO2 emission. CO2 emission contributes to climate change. On the other hand, renewable energy is hindered by complex constraints in dealing with large scale application and high price. Power generation from fossil fuels with CO2 capture is therefore necessary to meet the increasing energy demand, and reduce the emission of CO2. This paper presents a process simulation and economic analysis of the chemical looping combustion (CLC) integrated with humid air turbine (HAT) cycle for natural gas-fired power plant with CO2 capture. The study shows that the CLC–HAT including CO2 capture has a thermal efficiency of 57% at oxidizing temperature of 1200 °C and reducer inlet temperature of 530 °C. The economic evaluation shows that the 50 MWth plant with a projected lifetime of 30 years will have a payback period of 7 years and 6 years for conventional HAT and CLC–HAT cycles respectively. The analysis indicates that CLC–HAT process has a high potential to be commercialised.