Deflation and the Fisher equation
So, according to Irving Fisher, one reason to worry about deflation is that the federal funds rate is expected to be held near zero as the economy grows out of this recession.
Unlikely Estimates of the Ex Ante Real Interest Rate: Another Dismal Performance from the Dismal Science1
The ex ante real rate of interest is one of the most important concepts in economics and finance. Because the universally-used Fisher theory of interest requires positive ex ante real interest rates, empirical estimates of the ex ante real interest rate derived from the Fisher theory of interest should also be positive. Unfortunately, virtually all estimates of the ex ante real interest rate published in economic journals and textbooks or used in macroeconomic models and policy discussions for the past 35 years contain negative values for extended time periods and, thus, are theoretically flawed. Moreover, the procedures generally used to estimate ex ante real interest rates were shown to produce biased estimates of the ex ante real rate over 30 years ago. In this article, we document this puzzling chasm between the Fisherian theory that mandates positive ex ante real interest rates and the practice of macroeconomists who generate and use ex ante real interest rate estimates that violate this theory. We explore the reasons that this problem exists and assess some alternative approaches for estimating the ex ante real interest rate to determine whether they might resolve this problem.
The Categorical Stability of Gambling Motives Among Community-Recruited Gamblers: A Longitudinal Assessment
Over the past decade, several motivational models have been proposed to explain the role of motives in gambling disorder. In the model captured by the four-factor Gambling Motives Questionnaire Financial (GMQ-F), gamblers are described as being primarily motivated to gamble for ‘coping’, ‘enhancement’, ‘social’, and ‘financial’ reasons. Although this model has received significant empirical support; to date, research assessing the role of motives in gambling disorder has been primarily cross-sectional in nature. Thus, the extent to which gambling motives remain stable over time has yet to be explored. In the current study, the stability versus fluidity of self-assessed gambling motives was investigated using the Quinte Longitudinal Study, a longitudinal dataset of gambling behaviour collected over 5 years. Gambling motives of 2795 gamblers were examined over all five annual assessments. The total proportion of gamblers who stayed in the same primary motive category across each of the 5 consecutive assessments was 22%, indicating substantial fluidity in category membership. Substantial movement between categories was seen for each GMQ-F group, as well as an additional group of non-classified motives. Logistic regression analyses suggest that greater resistance to gambling fallacies significantly predicted stability between the baseline assessment and a follow-up 1 year later, but gambling severity did not. Potential limitations in the study design and opportunities for future research are discussed.