Conflict or cooperation? The role of India and Pakistan in post-2014 Afghanistan
AbstractAs the coalition forces prepare to exit Afghanistan, concerns regarding peace and stability in the country and future power balance after their departure are becoming paramount. While there will be a considerable American presence, focus has now shifted to local infrastructure and services - civil, military and political and their ability to further peace and progress in the country. Owing to the geostrategic landscape of Afghanistan, in addition to its long conflict ridden history with a significant presence of the Taliban, concerns regarding revival of conflict and violence are coming to the fore - particularly from traditional South Asian rivals i.e. India and Pakistan. Through an in-depth study of the political, economic, cultural and regional dimensions of this tri-lateral relationship, the following paper examines how there is a significant clash of interests and how there can cooperation between India and Pakistan in Afghanistan.Key Words: Afghanistan, Taliban, India-Pakistan relations, US withdrawal, new Great Game, Strategic DepthIntroductionDealing with the situation unfolding in Afghanistan and its ramifications present a formidable challenge, both for Afghanistan as well as regional and international players who have a stake in its future and have contributed significantly to efforts towards reconstruction of the war-torn nation. On May 27, 2014, US President Barack Obama announced that the last American troops would withdraw from Afghanistan by the end of 2016. However, this announcement needs to be further clarified. A Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) would permit a residual American military presence, some 9,800 US troops will remain in the country after 2014, with half of them slated to depart by the end of 2015. From 2015 onward, the remaining troops will train the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) for two more years, eventually leaving only a token force to protect the American embassy in Kabul (Grare, 2010). Nonetheless, the international community is willing to continue engagements in both civilians and military matters for ensuring economic development, security and political stability in Afghanistan (Yuasa, 2014, p.285).The decision of the US and its allies to withdraw troops from Afghanistan is a reflection of domestic political concerns and the large number of casualties. From 2001 until February 2012, the US-led coalition troops lost 2,884 soldiers, including 1,895 from the US alone (Chesser 2012, p.1-4). Based on this data, 2010 and 2011 were the deadliest years in Afghanistan. The Afghan Army and Police have also suffered the loss of roughly 4,000 members (Caldwell 2011 online). In addition to military casualties, the conflict has also claimed the lives of 2,080 civilians just in the year 2010. Even though American forces are preparing for withdrawal, the conflict in Afghanistan is far from over. There is overwhelming evidence of the resurgence of the Taliban and attacks on civilians and state infrastructure are on a rise. In addition, the political and military structure of Afghanistan continues to be weakened by factionalism and tribal rivalries, further clouding prospects for a peaceful transition after the withdrawal of foreign troops. According to Saghafi-Ameri (Saghafi-Ameri, 2012, p.1), "the main causes of the present situation in Afghanistan include lack of proper planning, shifting policies, inattention to geopolitical realities and over-reliance on military power without the necessary attention to development and civilian assistance plans".In such an environment, the involvement of local actors becomes preeminent in shaping the course of future events in Afghanistan. A key ally in the US led military action in Afghanistan is neighbouring Pakistan. A former ally of the Taliban and a country, which faces direct repercussions of conflict in Afghanistan owing to a large number of refugees, Pakistan has been at the forefront of reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan. …
Trade relations between India and Gulf cooperation council countries - An Empirical Study
India’s relation with Gulf Cooperation Council countries goes back to the centuries and it has been based on mutual trade and business. As both India and GCC are large economic power, the economic trends are reinforcing mutual interdependence. India’s 7 million strong workforces in the GCC countries is a very important link between both the regions. The gulf region is meeting two-thirds of India’s total energy requirements. Similarly, India supplies textiles, food products, spices, machineries, information technology and electrical goods to the GCC market. GCC is a major trading partner of India and the country which does more trade with India is UAE. India’s total trade with the GCC countries rose from US$ 16878.46 million in 2004-05 to US$ 150020.62 million in 2013-14. With regards to trade relations between the two countries UAE is India’s largest trading partner and Saudi Arabia is the second largest trading partner of India in GCC. The main purpose of this research is to analyze the bilateral trade between India and GCC countries for 10 years and improve the trade relations between both the countries.
Numerical analysis of surface crack propagation in flexible pavements using XFEM and cohesive zone model
Surface initiated (top-down) cracking in the longitudinal direction of pavements has become a predominant mode of failure in thick asphalt pavements. Most previous researchers studied crack propagation using the traditional Linear Elastic Fracture Mechanics (LEFM) method by calculating the stress intensity factor around the crack tip. In this paper, Extended Finite Element Method (XFEM) was used to study the key factors causing surface initiated crack propagation under surface tension and/or shear. A two-dimensional (2-D) finite element (FE) model for a two-lane flexible pavement was built to predict pavement responses and crack propagation potential under various scenarios. It was found that surface tension is the major driving force for crack propagation when the crack is at some distance away from tire loading. The results show that the distance from the location of crack to tire loading, the depth and direction of the crack, and the modulus ratio between the hot-mix asphalt (HMA) layer and the base layer have significant influences on crack propagation under surface tension. On the other hand, this study shows that shear stress can induce surface initiated crack propagation near the loading area as the shear resistance of material becomes low at the high temperature.