DISTRIBUTIONS OF INDEMNITIES FOR CROP‐INSURANCE PLANS: WITH APPLICATION TO GRAIN CROPS IN NEW SOUTH WALES
A review of crop-insurance schemes is followed by a discussion of a guaranteed-yield, crop-insurance plan. General formulae for the distribution function and mathematical expectation of indemnities for the insurance plan are presented in terms of the distribution of crop yields. Three special cases are considered in which the original yields, the square root of yields, and the logarithm of yields are normally distributed. The insurance plan is applied on a regional basis for wheat and sorghum production in N.S.W. Given distributional information on the crops obtained from a simulation model, expected indemnities are calculated for four different insurance plans.
A WHEAT POLICY FOR THE SEVENTIES
A study of the origins of the wheat surplus problem in Australia suggests that more far-reaching adjustments in national wheat policy are required than those currently envisaged. Ten specific recommendations for the reform of the present policy are outlined. A new form of income stabilisation scheme is proposed.
Yield Probabilities as a Markov Process
The shape and consequences of fortuitous events are subjects of much discussion in economics. Wheat yields on dryland are one member of such a set of events. Much research effort has been devoted to establishment of causal factors in observed yield variability and in attempts to derive probability models without waiting for causal understanding. The discussion that follows is another in the list of attempts of the latter kind. Thanks are due James S. Plaxico of Oklahoma State University, others of the GP-2 Technical Committee, and members of the Farm Economics Division, Economic Research Service staff in Washington, D.C., who read the manuscript and suggested improvements.