Population Growth and Development Prospects for Pakistan
Since its founding Pakistan has exhibited a continuously high rate of population growth. When measured by population size it has moved from the thirteenth largest country in 1950 to the seventh largest country in 1996 (Table 1). Today Pakikan exhibits the highest rate of growth among the world's largest countries, and according to some projections will become the third most populated country in the world by the year 2050 [United Nations (1998)]. Given the country's present resources, this magnitude of population growth has serious implications for the social and economic well-being of the people of Pakistan. A staggering statistic shows that the area now constituting Pakistan which had only 16.6 million people at the turn of the century, will surpass the 150 million mark by the new millennium (less than a year away).
1998 Census: The Results and Implications
The 1998 Census was the fifth nation-wide census to be held in Pakistan. The earlier censuses were held in 1951, 1961, 1972, and 1981. It was the British colonial administrators who started the tradition of holding nation-wide decennial censuses in the year beginning with digit 1. Regular censuses were held in British India from 1881 to 1941. Pakistan continued with this tradition and conducted its national censuses in 1951 and 1961. The 1971 census was postponed due to civil war leading to the separation of East Pakistan. But it was promptly held in the following year in 1972. The 1981 census was held on time in March 1981, preceded by the Housing Census in December 1980. The present author was the Census Commissioner at that time. The next census was due in 1991. Adequate preparations were made. It is a standard operation in every census to conduct house listing before the actual detailed inquiry. Enumerators visit all the houses within their block, put a census number on the house, list the house number corresponding with the census number, and ask a broad question on the total number of persons staying in the house and record this number in their registers. These numbers showed absurd exaggeration, with 10 to 12 percent annual growth in many districts. The operation was called off and it was decided to proceed afresh.
Determinants of contraceptive use dynamics in rural Bangladesh. Executive summary.
In 1988 researchers reinterviewed 2586 women (mean age = 33.2 years) living in rural areas of Bangladesh who had taken part in the 1985 Contraceptive Prevalence Survey to determine what factors affect decision making about contraceptive or noncontraceptive use and contraceptive use behavior. Current contraceptive users were much more likely to be educated and employed than nonusers. Their husbands tended to be professionals or businessmen and landowners. A considerably smaller proportion of current users wanted more children or had children less than 1 year old compared to nonusers. Current users had significantly more acts of intercourse in 1 week than nonusers (2.3 vs. 1.7). They were more likely to know more contraceptives than nonusers (7.2 vs. 5.2). The most familiar forms of contraception were oral contraceptives (OCs) and sterilization. Leading knowledge sources were in order of significance family planning workers relatives and husbands. In most cases both husband and wife decided jointly to use contraceptives. 94% of current users were satisfied with the method they were using compared to 51% of past users. Headache weakness and excessive bleeding were main reasons for dissatisfaction. The older the women the less likely they were to use OCs the IUD and injectables while condom use sterilization and traditional method use increased with age. The 1-year continuation rate of IUD was 74% followed by OCs (66%) condom (54%) and injectables (39%). Side effects and health reasons were major reasons for discontinuation. Method failure rates were low (1% for OCs 2% for IUD 3% for injectables and 2% for condom). The contraceptive method switching rate was 25%. Most women switched to OCs. Leading sources of contraceptives were family planning workers clinics and hospitals and pharmacies and shops. Yet family planning workers had not visited 65% of women within the last 3 months. Religious belief and wanting more children were the major reasons for nonuse. 24% of nonusers planned to use contraception in the future. 80% of current users would continue using contraception.