The Importance of Risk Factor Analysis for Romania’s National Security in the 2020 Perspective
Besides the main current challenges of the security environment generated by regional conflicts, instability or tensions, there are asymmetric threats which are already traditional, as well as new threats determined by the rapid pace of the technological advancement and by the proliferation of the new technologies. In this context, one of the few certainties in the less and less predictable present security environment is that the intelligence analysis plays an essential role in reducing the uncertainties that the Information Age has generated or amplified. The elaboration of any analysis concerning the risk factors for national security in the period 2014-2020, from the perspective of the specific scopes of interest (political-military, economic, social, environmental and technological), shall pursue to provide strategic knowledge to the decision factors. In this context, the methodology of research proposes to analyse, by the use of the scenario planning, the evolution of certain processes or phenomena at the national and regional level; to signal the appearance or amplification of negative effects or of potential risks for the security interests of the country and of its allies; to foresee the manifestation forms of the threats/risks for the national security on medium and long term; to supply useful forecasts for supporting the political, economic or social decisions. In general, the scenario planning is used for exploring the possible manifestation conditions of a situation, starting from a set of proposals/working hypotheses, each scenario representing a distinct plausible future.
Qu'est-ce que la sécurité nationale ?
La securite nationale tire sa specificite, essentiellement, de la plasticite de son contenu que refletent les definitions contrastees qui structurent son champ disciplinaire. Cet article tente de montrer que cette indecidabilite conceptuelle sous-tend nos problemes methodologiques. Il integre cette contestabilite semantique au cœur de son projet, delimite les secteurs saillants de la securite nationale et en enonce les conditionnements. Reunies, ces reflexions permettent, a travers une methode analytique, de concilier la triade, ontologie – de quoi est faite la securite nationale ? –, epistemologie – comment l’etudie-t-on ? – et politique – quelles sont les variables qui influencent sa mise en œuvre ?
A Public Health Approach to Child Protection: Why Data Matter
In Australia, many researchers and policy makers believe that statutory child protection systems are overburdened and ineffective. The way forward, they suggest, is a public health model of child protection. A public health approach comprises four steps: (1) collecting surveillance data; (2) establishing causes and correlations; (3) developing and evaluating interventions; and (4) disseminating information about the effectiveness of intervention activities to the public health community. However, in Australia there are no reliable surveillance data. There is no information about ‘person’. Information is not collected about the characteristics of children (e.g., ethnicity) and parents (e.g., mental illness) reported to child protection services. Data are not comparable across place. This is because the states and territories have their own child protection legislation, definitions and data recording methods. Data are not comparable over time. This is because many jurisdictions have introduced new data recording systems over recent years. This paper concludes that it is essential to develop an effective child protection surveillance data system. This will ensure that services are located in areas and targeted towards populations in greatest need. It will enable large-scale evaluation of the effectiveness of prevention and intervention activities.