‘Dog Days’ Full Employment without Depreciation: Can It Be Done?
Garnaut, in his book Dog Days: Australia after the Boom, explores the outlook for the Australian economy as the China resources boom goes into retreat (Garnaut 2013). Modelling of this scenario was presented to the July meeting of the Melbourne Economic Forum (Dixon et al. 2014a, 2014b). We identified a smooth adjustment path to changed circumstances, which minimised the increase in unemployment and reduction in living standards, and also an alternative path of disorderly adjustment (DA), characterised by economic volatility and unemployment. The original DA scenario reported in Dixon et al. (2014a, 2014b) was predicated on inflexibility in wages and consumer behaviour. This article explores an alternative DA scenario in which the exchange rate is slow to adjust.
LONG-RUN FORECASTS OF AUSTRALIA'S TERMS OF TRADE
Australia’s terms of trade rose significantly over the eight years to 2011 12 following a period of relative constancy over the preceding 40 years. Australian Government fiscal projections from the 2010 11 Budget to the 2013 14 Budget, assumed that beyond the near term forecast period the terms of trade would fall by 20 per cent over the subsequent 15 years. This approach was silent on when the expected decline would end and the level at which the terms of trade would eventually settle. This paper details the projection methodology underlying the terms of trade projection assumption in the 2013 14 MYEFO. In contrast to the earlier approach it provides guidance on the timing of the end of the current expected decline and the associated long run level of the terms of trade. The centrepiece of the new approach is detailed price and volume forecasting modules for Australia’s major export categories, including global demand and supply models for the three major bulk commodities (iron ore, metallurgical coal and thermal coal). Based on this methodology, Australia’s terms of trade are expected to fall at a more rapid rate than previously predicted in the 2013 14 Budget from 2012 13 to 2017 18 and remain reasonably constant thereafter at a level roughly equal to that recorded in 2006 07. As noted in the 2013 14 MYEFO, there are a number of downside risks to this outlook including uncertainty around the global economy, the nominal exchange rate and non-bulk commodity price forecasts. Applying prudent judgement to the model’s outcome results in a long-run terms of trade that settles at the level observed in 2005 06 by 2019 20.
Experimental study on bond behavior between high-strength grout and deformed steel bars
Abstract Engineers use high-strength grout to connect precast concrete members for its low shrinkage and good fluidity. This paper designed 87 central pull-out specimens using the control variable method to investigate the influence of factors on the rebar-grout bond property such as compressive strength, steel grade, bar diameter, transverse stirrups, and bond length. The test result showed that improving grout compressive strength (85.8 MPa–122.7 MPa) cannot improve the bond strength, which was different from the previous conclusions of concrete pull-out tests. Simplified formulas were presented for calculating the characteristic values of bond strength, residual strength, peak slip, and relative slip of load-holding platform based on parameter analysis. Then, a constitutive model was proposed to predict the full-range bond stress-slip curve of high-strength grout and steel bar specimens from bearing to failure. Finally, FEA models were established to evaluate the applicability and accuracy of the constitutive model.