Faktor-Faktor yang Memengaruhi Volume Impor Komoditas Jeruk di Indonesia
YOSEP ANDREW TAO SILITONGA. Factors Affecting the Import Volume of Fresh Oranges in Indonesian. Supervised by IDQAN FAHMI. Indonesia has many varietes of export product that if specially classified, it consists of agricultural commodities, mining commodities, and manufacturing industries. These varieties require Indonesia to develop products from each classification. One of them is the products or commodities that derived from the agricultural sector. This research aims to analyze factors that may affect the volume of citrus imports in Indonesia and studies about how the dynamics and conditions of citrus impor commodity in Indonesia. The methods that used in research are descriptive and panel data methods from 2002-2012 that involve six countries (Malaysia, China, Thailand, Pakistan, Australia, dan Hongkong). Data from BPS show, that during 2002 to 2012, Indonesia continued to perform its trading activity and during that time Indonesia did Citrus import to meet domestics needs. The research depicted that in 2012, for citrus comodity it self, Indonesia’s trade balance trend is negative. We also study other factors that affect impor value, such as : domestic citrus production, price of domestic citrus, price of import citrus, currency exchange rate and dummy crisis. The factor that significantly affect the most is the price of citrus abroad.
Pengaruh Konsumsi, Produksi, Kurs Dollar AS dan PDB Pertanian Terhadap Impor Bawang Putih Indonesia
As an agricultural country, Indonesia has great potentials in the agricultural sector. But nowadays,the problem occurred in the agricultural sector is quite disturbing indonesian's economic. The increasing of horticultural products import, showed as if horticultural products could not compete. Based on data from BPS, horticultural commoditiy imported highest is garlic. This research intended to determine the influence of consumption, production, U.S. dollar exchange rate and the GDP of agriculture to the import of garlic in  Indonesia. Besides that, this research also aimed to determine the variables that most affected the import of garlic, which used linear regression analysis. The results showed that consumption, production, U.S. dollar exchange rate and the GDP of agricilture effected simutaniosly and significant to the import of garlic. Then partially, consumption and the GDP of agriculture has significant and positive effect to the import of garlic. Production and the U.S. dollar exchange rate had no significant effect and the variables that most affected to the import of garlic in indonesia is GPD of agriculture.
Complexity, Network-Decisions And Alternative Risk Premia: Some New Theories Of Structural Change And Portfolio Decisions.
Structural Change is the basis for many decisions such as government fiscal and monetary policies, government interventions, corporate-expenditure decisions, corporate strategic decisions, portfolio management decisions in finance; household allocation decisions, etc.. Structural change in industries and national economies is increasingly more difficult to detect partly because of the growth and dominance of Complex Systems and “Networks” in modern industries and economies – such Networks and Complex Systems include GVCs (global value chains), retail store networks; franchising networks; internet networks; services networks; credit-chains in industries; online social networks; etc.. The relationship between Complexity and Structural Change is well established in the physics, applied math and economic dynamics literatures. Traditional definitions and modeling of structural change have erroneously focused on changes in labor, technological progress, market share, and or capital – which are grossly inadequate in the new economy and post- global financial crisis (as confirmed by changes in the global retailing and housing industries and other industries). Also the modeling of structural change seems to be constrained by the availability of data, and often omits the relationship between structural change on one hand, and globalization, financial stability and international financial contagion. This article: i) introduces the Operations Strategy Model of structural change, explains how it differs from the Lewis Model of Structural Change; and explains the often omitted relationship between operations strategy (of companies and government agencies) and structural change; ii) introduces other new Complexity-based models/theories of Structural Change in industries; iii) reviews the relationships among Operations Research, Complexity and Structural Change; iv) explains the symbiotic relationship between structural change on one hand, and economic growth, financial stability, financial contagion and globalization; v) discusses the significant gap between academic research and practice and explains some issues and factors that should be considered in the development and testing of structural change models; vi) explains how alternative risk premia can be generated from new models of Structural Change.