The Shape of Elite Opinion on U.S. Foreign Policy, 1992 to 2004
Research has demonstrated considerable diversity in the evolution of foreign policy beliefs of elite opinion leaders. Holsti and Rosenau's three-headed eagle, Wittkopf's four-headed eagle, and Rosati and Creed's six-headed eagle produced a number of categories that help to explain the significance of this diversity since the collapse of the Cold War consensus. This article expands upon this research by observing even greater complexity and diversity in the shape of foreign policy beliefs of elite opinion leaders since the end of the Cold War. Using a content analysis of national opinion and foreign policy journals between 1992 and 2004, it identifies and details nine foreign policy orientations (missionaries, hegemonists, globalizers, global capitalists, narrow realists, progressive internationalists, anti-imperialists, neighbors, and disengagers) held by elite opinion leaders. It also suggests that elites are altering their foreign policy orientations by absorbing profound global changes into their belief systems.
The Structure of Foreign Policy Attitudes among American Leaders
The recent renaissance of interest in public opinion and foreign policy has generated a vigorous debate about the dimensions that characterize foreign policy attitudes. This paper assesses a scheme that emerged from Wittkopf's analyses of the Chicago Council on Foreign Policy surveys. Two dimensions (militant internationalism and cooperative internationalism) are crossed to create four types: hard-liners (support MI, oppose CI), internationalists (support both MI and CI), isolationists (oppose both MI and CI), and accommodationists (oppose MI, support CI). After developing scales for MI and CI, the scheme is tested with data from nationwide surveys of opinion leaders undertaken in 1976 (N = 2,282), 1980 (N = 2,502), and 1984 (N = 2,515). The MI/CI scheme is tested--and strongly supported--by examining the pattern of responses by hard-liners, internationalists, isolationists, and accommodationists to a broad range of questions from the three surveys of opinion leaders. The background attributes and other political attitudes associated with the four types are then examined. Correlations are strong for ideology and party; moderate for occupation; and weak for gender, age, education, travel, and military service. The conclusion raises some questions about the isolationist category and speculates about the broader implications of the findings.
Geomagnetic Polarity Epochs: Sierra Nevada Data, 3
Available paleomagnetic and radiometric results for about 60 igneous rocks 3.6 m.y. old or less are consistent with the following geomagnetic polarity epoch time scale: Brunhes normal polarity epoch, 0.0 to 0.85±0.15 million years; Matuyama reversed polarity epoch, 0.85±0.15 to 2.4±0.1 million years; Gauss normal polarity epoch, 2.4±0.1 to 3.35±0.1 million years; Gilbert reversed polarity epoch, 3.35±0.1 million years to (?). A brief interval of normal polarity (the Olduvai event) occurs within the Matuyama reversed epoch at about 1.9 m.y., and a brief interval of reversed polarity (the Mammoth event) occurs within the Gauss normal epoch at about 3.06 m.y. Data for twelve units from eastern California and Nevada, reported here for the first time, are particularly useful in defining the Gauss-Gilbert boundary and for recognizing the Mammoth event.