Risk analysis in loss prevention research
Conventional risk management models identify risks, assess the probability of their occurrence and potential impact, and then implement steps to reduce the risk or the impact of the risk. Although almost all retailers implement measures to try to eliminate or reduce theft (the end step of risk management), we know little about how many undertake systematic risk assessments of loss to guide solutions and the methods that they may use to do so. This study presents the results of a survey of 22 diverse retail companies about their LP/AP risk management process, including the types of risk data collected, types of risk assessment and analyses conducted, and how these data are used in management decisions.
Reliability analysis of productivity enhancement initiatives
Process improvement (PI) projects in manufacturing suffer from high failure rates, often due to management capability overstretch. An organisation’s management may be unaware that they lack the necessary capability to achieve desired performance gains from a particular PI project. As a consequence, PI projects containing a level of complexity are undertaken but the organisation is not capable of providing the required resources. The purpose of this paper is to develop a new method for assessing whether a productivity enhancement initiative which develops into PI projects have a good probability of success (POS). The risk assessment method predicts the POS in achieving desired performance targets from a PI project.,The POS of a system can be measured in terms of reliability. An operation with a high POS indicates high reliability of the system’s ability to perform. Reliability is a form of risk assessment. When applied to PI projects, several key factors should be addressed. First, risk should be modelled with a framework that includes human factors. Second, time is an important dimension due to the need for persistence in effort. This research proposes the concept of performance effectiveness function, kP, that links the capability of an organisation with its performance level. A PI reliability function indicating the probably of success of the PI projects can then be derived at the design stage by combining the capability score and actual performance.,The PI reliability function has been developed and tested with an industry case in which a PI project is planned. The analysis indicates that the company is far from ideal to do the project.,The reliability function may be used as a decision support tool to assist decision makers to set realistic performance gain targets from PI projects. The data set for deriving the function came from automotive and metal industries. Further research is required to generalise this methodology to other industries.,The reliability-based approach fills the gap in PI literature with a more holistic approach to determine the POS. Using the system’s reliability as an indicator, decision makers can analyse the system’s design so that resources can be used to increase key capabilities and hence the overall system’s POS can be increased more effectively.,Many manufacturing organisations are looking to improve their operations by projects that aim to reduce waste in their operations. However, researches show that while achieving desired performance gain from PI is possible, it is by no means certain due to human factors. This research provides a decision support tool that evaluates human factors as well.,The originality lies in integration of the reliability theory to PI risk assessment and the novel method of characterising organisational capabilities to work towards meeting desired performance targets from manufacturing PI projects. This work has good potential to generalise for estimating the POS of other types of development projects.
How Can We Respond Effectively to Juvenile Crime?
All around the world, crimes committed by juveniles are a major concern. In the United States, some individuals warn of a crime wave of epidemic proportions, as changing demographics will increase the number of offense-prone juveniles.1Boruch and his colleagues2 note that the beheading of 1 child by another in Japan led to that nation considering counselors in every school. Concern about juvenile crime is matched by the sincere desire on the part of the public that something be done and often admirable response by decision-makers to do something about it.

An evidence-based approach requires that the results of rigorous evaluation be rationally integrated into decisions about interventions by policymakers and practitioners alike. Although some members of the medical community embraced this idea long ago, conversations about evidence-based policy in areas like criminal justice and social work are just beginning to surface. Terms like evidence-based or science-based are new, but the approach is not. The explicit or implicit goal of funding organizations in the social sector has always been to influence policy, programming, and practice through research. Occasionally, projects focused on theory or methods are funded, but only because they may eventually lead to sharper programming and policy decisions.3 

However, it does seem that the collective voice for an evidence-based approach is becoming louder and more international in dialect.4 More researchers, practitioners, and citizens seem to want to know what science says about policy or practice. But to have an evidence-based response to juvenile crime, we need more than a desire among some funders to support applied research or greater demand by citizens for information on what works. We need reliable evidence and a committed …