Reserve Option Mechanism : Does it Work as an Automatic Stabilizer?
Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) designed and implemented a new scheme since end-2011, called reserve options mechanism (ROM) in order to alleviate the adverse impact of capital flow volatility on the domestic economy. Although there are numerous studies on the mechanics of ROM, there has been no attempt to investigate the determinants of the ROM utilization in practice. In this paper, we aim to fill this gap by using bank-level data to assess the behavioral aspects of ROM. Our results suggest that the relative cost of Turkish lira funding to foreign currency funding as well as the reserve option coefficients set by the CBRT largely explains the variations in the ROM utilization. We find that the most relevant proxy for the cost of Turkish lira funding for banks is overnight money market interest rates and the weighted average cost of CBRT funding. Moreover, foreign currency liquidity does not seem to be a significant parameter in driving the utilization of ROM. We argue that the systematic policy induced movements in the short term domestic interest rates—higher during outflows, lower during inflows—may undermine the automatic stabilizer feature of ROM. And we propose an adjustment in the remuneration of reserve requirements to strengthen the automatic stabilizer effect of ROM.
Credit channel and capital flows: a macroprudential policy tool? Evidence from Turkey
Abstract Rapid credit growth induced by sudden capital inflows may negatively affect a country’s economic performance, with the resulting outflows turning into a financial crisis. The purpose of this study is to determine whether controlling the credit channel of monetary policy could be used as a macroprudential tool to suppress the effects of sudden capital inflows on economic performance for small open economies like Turkey. In this paper, using the Vector Autoregression methodology employed by (Bernanke, S. B., M. Gertler, and M. Watson. 1997. “Systematic Monetary Policy and the Effects of Oil Price Shocks.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1: 91–157), we investigate whether shutting down the credit channel helps reduce the effects of capital inflows. Indeed, empirical evidence from Turkey shows that doing so decreases the effects of capital inflows on imports and industrial production, but further decreases interest rate and prices and further appreciates the domestic currency. Therefore, it may be prudent to support credit control with additional policy tools to prevent a further decrease in interest rate and prices and a further appreciation of the domestic currency.
SEASONAL AND REGIONAL MPG AS INFLUENCED BY ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND TRAVEL PATTERNS
In-use fuel economy shortfall varies regionally and seasonally in response to changing environmental conditions and travel patterns. Shortfall changes by 25 percent or more are associated with variation in miles travelled per day by in-use vehicles. Monthly variations in northern states are twice those in the south; air conditioning penalties also vary by region. Although regional difference in annual levels are relatively small, shortfall can increase by 16 percent in densely populated urban areas. These variations have been quantified in an analysis of time-series mpg data and related to variables commonly reported in fuel economy surveys.