The use of macroeconomic models in economic policy making : The Norwegian experience
Abstract Planning in Norway has a long tradition. The use of models is an integral part of short- and medium-term economic policy administration. A large-scale input-output model, MODIS IV, is used as the short- and medium-term forecasting and planning model. The use of the model secures consistency when analysing the economy. The model is very open in the sense that important interrelations in the economy are left out. The model contains only ‘good’ relations in the Leif Johansen sense of the word. Smaller aggregate and more closed versions of the model are used for analysing policy alternatives. These models contain both ‘good’ and ‘bad’ relations. The use of macroeconomic models is an important aid for proposals regarding economic policy in the Ministry of Finance. Because the whole ministry (with expert help from other ministries) takes an active part in the model work, MODIS IV serves as the centralizing mechanism. It helps to make economists from many ministries go around the same centre, speak the same ‘language’ and organize all relevant information and judgements in a consistent way. Experience shows that ‘numbers discipline’ and force the different arguments on to a higher level of precision.
Macroeconomic Modelling for Economic Policy
Publisher Summary This chapter discusses macroeconomic modeling for economic policy. The essential advantage of the use of any interpretable formalized and quantified system is that the assumptions underlying the conclusions are specified. This enables their control, and also variation and communication. Both for the attribution of responsibilities and for the promotion of learning-by-doing in economic policy making, this renders the application of models far superior to non-formalized and non-quantified alternatives. The Dutch experience suggests that macroeconomic modeling can be important for economic policy in different ways: by providing a quantitative framework for projections, by providing an explicit, controllable and in several respects consistent framework for the discussion of macroeconomic policy issues for the past as well as for the future, and by providing a constant confrontation between macroeconomic thinking and the facts. All of these functions of macroeconomic modeling contribute to a collective learning process. They have a number of intrinsic limitations for which a cure is hardly conceivable. Therefore, macro econometric models should be supplemented with other formal devices in the preparation of economic policy.
Geological, mineralogical and chemical characterization of Devonian kaolinite-bearing sediments for further applications in the ceramic (tiles) industry in La Paz, Bolivia
Clay minerals are widely distributed in Bolivia; among them, illitic clays are most common in the Altiplano where they are mined for use in the ceramic industry that has been growing in the last few years. In addition to illitic sediments, kaolinitic sediments have been recently discovered in sedimentary units in the Bolivian Altiplano. Residual ball clay occurrences in Devonian sedimentary units were studied as part of this work. Geological mapping and geophysical studies (ERT and GPR) were done for better understanding the origin of the deposits and were part of a preliminary study of the mineral potential to define the relationship with the host rock. Chemical and mineralogical techniques such as X-Ray Diffraction, Scanning Electron Microscopy and Inductively Coupled Plasma analyses were performed in samples from the studied area to verify the presence of kaolinite. Atterberg limits and behaviour of the raw material in ceramic specimens supported by chemical analyses show that this material is suitable for manufacturing tile ceramics. This study provides fundamental knowledge for deposit exploitation and future generation of an alternative source of employment for the inhabitants of Micaya.