Unauthorized Disclosure: Can Behavioral Indicators Help Predict Who Will Commit Unauthorized Disclosure of Classified National Security Information?
Abstract : Federal government security-cleared personnel have been disclosing federal government classified national security information, whether to a foreign government or the United States media, at an increasing rate since the 1980s. Can common personal or psychological characteristics or motivations be identified from historical cases that could indicate the likelihood of a current or potential federal employee to disclose national security information without authorization? Reasons for unauthorized disclosure range from financial, to whistle-blowing, to a desire to change international policy, to sympathy and strong ties with a foreign government. The focus of this research is on the behavioral characteristics that are similar or different between known, studied historical cases of personnel associated with the federal government who have disclosed classified information without authorization. Upon review of existing data, the prevalent behavioral characteristic of the cases is one of a disgruntled employee (ideology/disillusionment/loyalty). A disgruntled employee becomes the largest concern as an insider threat, one who is willing to compromise his or her feelings of loyalty to the organization and the nation for a myriad of reasons.
Impact of altering the delinquent debt threshold used for background investigation expansion of the denial rate of security clearances
Abstract : The purpose of this thesis was to conduct an analysis of cases of requests for Top Secret security clearances from applicants whose backgrounds showed some derogatory financial information, to determine the impact of the delinquent debt threshold used to expand personnel security investigations on final clearance decisions. To conduct the analysis, a sample of completed cases meeting the Defense Investigative Service's (DIS) delinquent debt criteria for investigation expansion ($500 or more outstanding for 120 days) was selected. The total amount of delinquent debt for each case was recorded and classified in one of three debt categories, under $1000, $1000 to $2000, and over $2000. In order to determine final clearance decisions, the sample data were merged with the Defense Central Investigations (DCII) data base. This provided a breakdown by clearance denials and approvals at the various delinquent debt categories. The analysis suggests that delinquent debt levels play less of a role in determining final clearance outcomes than was originally anticipated; it also provide som empirical support for raising the delinquent debt threshold above the current $500 threshold amount.
A prototype expert system for credit evaluation
Abstract The world of banking and finance is an untapped market for expert systems technology. To demonstrate the applicability of the technology in this domain we developed a prototype expert system for Credit Evaluation. This paper describes a simplified version of the prototype which accurately reflects the program structure, but with sensitive bank information removed. The program uses ordinal scales to represent the qualitative reasoning of bank experts. The prototype has been tested so far on the data of a dozen real world clients. According to our experts, it gave reasonable results, which encourage further investments in the prototype in order to make it (actually, a version of it) a working system.