Understanding the Crisis in Yemen: Evaluating Competing Narratives
In 2014, Yemen was referred to as one of the success stories of the Arab Spring. Yet, within months a rebel group, the Huthis, took over the capital and the Yemeni state nearly collapsed. Analyses of the crisis in Yemen have routinely reproduced one of three narratives: the Saudi-Iranian proxy war narrative, the sectarian narrative or the al-Qaeda/failed state narrative. However, a closer look shows that the onset of the crisis, although complex, is mainly driven by local factors and related to the lack of political and economic reforms after the transition in Yemen following the uprising in 2011.
Tracking the “Arab Spring”: Yemen Changes Everything… And Nothing
Abstract:Yemen is the only country to exit the Arab Spring through a negotiated settlement and a national dialogue to guide the country’s transition. Yet, many Yemenis increasingly see this process as reshuffling power among old-regime elites. As yet, there is no durable power-sharing agreement to ensure a more democratic, accountable system. Even if one is reached, implementation will be difficult, especially in the south, where mobilization and demands for separation are high. At best, a long process of negotiation and change has begun. The future will likely see bouts of localized violence, along with growing economic and humanitarian challenges.
ORIGINS AND ARCHITECTS OF YEMEN'S JOINT MEETING PARTIES
In November 2005, the secretary generals of Yemen's largest Islamist party, the Reform Gathering (al-Tajammuʿ al-Yamani li-l-Islah, hereafter Islah); of the Socialist Party (YSP) that ruled the south prior to unification; of the Popular Nasirist Unity Organization; and of a small party consisting largely of liberal Zaydi intellectuals, the Union of Popular Forces (UPF), announced the publication of “The Program of the Joint Meeting for Political and National Reform,” in a joint press conference. The conservative Zaydi Party, al-Haqq, also signed the document. In July 2006, these same five parties upped the ante of their alliance by nominating Faysal bin Shamlan, a former oil minister and independent member of parliament, to oppose President ʿAli ʿAbdullah Salih in the 2006 election. The composition of the oppositional alliance that has come to be known as the Joint Meeting Parties (Ahzab al-Liqaء al-Mushtarak [JMP]) is particularly surprising when one considers that since unification in 1990 the ruling General People's Conference (GPC) and President Salih have sought to pit the JMP's two main parties—the YSP and Islah—against each other through a process of allying with or bolstering one at the expense of the other. As recently as 1994, these two parties were literally killing each other in Yemen's war of succession.