The Importance of Risk Factor Analysis for Romania’s National Security in the 2020 Perspective
Besides the main current challenges of the security environment generated by regional conflicts, instability or tensions, there are asymmetric threats which are already traditional, as well as new threats determined by the rapid pace of the technological advancement and by the proliferation of the new technologies. In this context, one of the few certainties in the less and less predictable present security environment is that the intelligence analysis plays an essential role in reducing the uncertainties that the Information Age has generated or amplified. The elaboration of any analysis concerning the risk factors for national security in the period 2014-2020, from the perspective of the specific scopes of interest (political-military, economic, social, environmental and technological), shall pursue to provide strategic knowledge to the decision factors. In this context, the methodology of research proposes to analyse, by the use of the scenario planning, the evolution of certain processes or phenomena at the national and regional level; to signal the appearance or amplification of negative effects or of potential risks for the security interests of the country and of its allies; to foresee the manifestation forms of the threats/risks for the national security on medium and long term; to supply useful forecasts for supporting the political, economic or social decisions. In general, the scenario planning is used for exploring the possible manifestation conditions of a situation, starting from a set of proposals/working hypotheses, each scenario representing a distinct plausible future.
Qu'est-ce que la sécurité nationale ?
La securite nationale tire sa specificite, essentiellement, de la plasticite de son contenu que refletent les definitions contrastees qui structurent son champ disciplinaire. Cet article tente de montrer que cette indecidabilite conceptuelle sous-tend nos problemes methodologiques. Il integre cette contestabilite semantique au cœur de son projet, delimite les secteurs saillants de la securite nationale et en enonce les conditionnements. Reunies, ces reflexions permettent, a travers une methode analytique, de concilier la triade, ontologie – de quoi est faite la securite nationale ? –, epistemologie – comment l’etudie-t-on ? – et politique – quelles sont les variables qui influencent sa mise en œuvre ?
The Security Puzzle: Theory-Building and Discipline-Building in International Security
The term "security" is as ambiguous in content as in format: is it a goal, an issue-area, a concept, a research program, or a discipline? There is no one concept of security; "national security," "international security," and "global security" refer to different sets of issues and have their origins in different historical and philosophical contexts. The author argues that the concept of international security might most appropriately describe current security affairs. She challenges the concept of national security as fixated on the nation-state and not taking into account the security of other states. She criticizes the notion of global security as presupposing a world-wide common definition of security and shared sets of values, rules, and principles not yet existing. In the long term, however, the world might be moving in the direction of a global security system if institution-building continues and leads to common practices, rules, and enforcement capabilities. As all concepts yield only limited explanations and are of marginal value for theorybuilding, the essay identifies some assumptions and questions to be clarified in future research programs. In a closing section the field of international security studies and its relationship to international relations are discussed.