The price of energy and potential growth of developed countries : An attempt at quantification
Abstract A growth model based on a theoretical discussion of the impact of oil prices on developed countries is used to predict the impact of higher prices of energy on the growth of developed countries. The results suggest that the growth impact is small, that domestic price policies may have a large impact on oil imports, and that the investment of foreign assets accumulated by oil producers may make a significant contribution to the GNP of OECD.
Energy-economy simulation with the Argonne energy model for Portugal
Abstract This paper discusses energy-economy interactions in energy-poor newly industrializing countries (NICs), describes the structure and operation of the Argonne Energy Models (AEMs), and reports the results of an energy-economy simulation based upon the Argonne Energy Model for Portugal (AEM-P). The problem facing the energy-poor NICs is to achieve sufficient economic growth to pay for energy imports and energy sector development, with something left over. In addressing this issue, the energy-economy modeler finds that no existing analytic methodology is completely adequate. The AEMs contribute to the refinement of methodology by deriving least-cost energy-sector configurations in terms of energy flows and prices for specific energy transformation technologies. The energy-economy simulation for Portugal indicates that higher energy costs due to further industrialization could be offset substantially by application of energy conservation technologies, by adoption of fuel switching strategies, and by promotion of domestic energy production. Under varying economic scenarios, and with high world oil price assumptions, between 1977 and 1997 the energy sector would account for about 30 percent of GDP. As a proportion of total energy supply, imported oil would decrease from around 90 to 50 percent, imported coal would increase from under 1 to over 25 percent, and the contribution from domestic uranium and biomass would expand from about 9 to 14 percent.
Deliberative Democracy and the Resource Curse: A Nationwide Experiment in Tanzania
Oil and gas discoveries in developing countries are often associated with short-sighted economic policies and, in response, calls to insulate resource management from populist impulses. We report on a randomized experiment testing methods to overcome this apparent tension between sound resource governance and democratic politics. Soon after Tanzania’s discovery of major natural gas reserves, we invited a nationally representative sample of voters to an intensive public deliberation of policy options featuring nationally recognized experts and small-group discussions. Democratic deliberation reinforced the public’s strong preference for rapid spending of gas revenues, but also increased support for various prudential and economically orthodox measures, including independent oversight of gas revenues, limits on government borrowing, and selling gas abroad rather than subsidizing fuel at home. These effects were driven by deliberation per se, rather than a pure information treatment, and show no evidence of contamination by facilitatoror peer-effects in group deliberations. www.cgdev.org Justin Sandefur, Nancy Birdsall, James Fishkin, and Mujobu Moyo