Minnesota State Road Taxes in 2030: Will revenues keep pace with inflation?
The future adequacy of Minnesota road funding is evaluated in a 27-year forecast of current law road taxes (motor vehicle registration tax, motor vehicle sales tax, and motor fuels excise tax). Revenue projections are compared with inflation-adjusted base costs in three economic growth scenarios (Trend, Optimistic, and Pessimistic), using two price deflators (core-CPI and state/local government costs). The Trend scenario predicts road tax revenues will lose purchasing power to inflation by 2020, but over the forecast period cumulative revenues and costs nearly balance out. According to this scenario, current tax policy can support 2003 service levels into the future, but not fund system improvements. The Optimistic scenario forecasts a surplus in purchasing power in all 27 years, providing the opportunity for significant new spending without changing current law. Under the Pessimistic scenario, tax revenues fall short of inflationary costs by 2012, with the annual loss in purchasing power reaching $1 billion by 2030. In this scenario, road tax policy changes are needed to avert significant declines in road service.
PAYING FOR MINNESOTA ROADS: A TAX POLICY ASSESSMENT
Minnesota state and local roads generate 52 billion vehicle miles of travel (VMT) annually at a cost of $2.6 billion. Spending averages 5 cents per VMT statewide, but travel on local government roads, especially low volume networks, costs more. State road aid reduces the local tax effort significantly in most high cost areas. State and local road funding is supported primarily with motor fuels excise taxes, vehicle registration and sales taxes, local property taxes, and state property tax relief. The average Minnesota household pays about $600 annually for roads, but this estimate varies widely with household characteristics. Substituting travel-dependent taxes for fixed or hidden charges could improve the tax system efficiency, and potentially distribute the road tax burden more fairly. Compared to current law, even radical tax reform may not change the road tax bill for some households.
Trade, exchange rate, and agricultural pricing policies in Thailand
Thailand is still largely an agricultural country. In 1984, agricultural work was still the main source of earnings for more than 70 percent of the population. For much of the 25 year period covered by this report, government intervention in the prices of rice, maize, and natural rubber was extensive. For these products, intervention took the form of explicit export taxes and restrictive quotas. Sugar, on the other hand, was imported until 1960. For many years prior to that, government policy was to encourage growers and thus achieve self-sufficiency. One conclusion of this study is that the Thai sugar industry would have shrunk dramatically if the government had refrained from intervention. Intervention in the prices of rice and natural rubber had the effect of penalizing farm producers by reducing their output prices. There was, as a consequence a shift of resources towards Thailand's small industrial sector. In 1981, the Thai government lifted its quota restrictions, and liberalized its trade by eliminating its intervention in the maize, rice, sugar and natural rubber markets. Unfortunately for export growers, however, the gradual elimination of intervention was overshadowed by sharp declines in the world prices of Thailand's major agricultural exports.