The Tyranny of Budget Forecasts
The evolving federal budget process has placed increasing demands on, and given unique powers to, the economic forecasters at OMB, Treasury, CBO, and the Joint Tax Committee of Congress. On the whole, the forecasters have been highly professional in their work, but differences in estimating techniques and, especially, constraints imposed on their analysis by elected officials have limited their credibility. Both the Administration and Congress "game" the system and even ignore the budget rules when convenient. Thus, a sophisticated budget process can help, but cannot assure, sound fiscal policy in the absence of political will to make hard decisions.
Comparing Government Forecasts of the United States’ Gross Federal Debt
This paper compares annual one-step-ahead forecasts from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) of the United States‟ gross federal debt from 1984 to 2010. While comparisons of these agencies‟ forecasts have been done before, they have not focused on the debt. The paper finds that both agencies do a good job forecasting the debt except during recessions. Each agency‟s forecast lacks something that the other accounts for and an average of both out performs either individually. However, the Analysis of the President‟s Budget (APB), which includes information from both agencies, performs best.
Total Lobbying : What Lobbyists Want (and How They Try to Get It)
1. Studying lobbyists and lobbying 2. Lobbying and lobbyists in the United States: a primer 3. Public policy lobbying, part 1 4. Public policy lobbying, part 2 5. Land-use lobbying 6. Procurement lobbying 7. Summary and conclusions.