WMD Intelligence Analysis of Lessons from Iraq to Iran: Only Dot the I's - Don't Cross the T's
On January 29, 2010, former British Prime Minister Tony Blair gave evidence to the Iraq Enquiry in London, which was broadcast worldwide on satellite TV by the BBC. He emphasized the need to learn the lessons of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) from the case of Iraq for the case of Iran. In his words “propping up one dictator to handle another dictator is not the way, we must get rid of the dictator.” More interesting is how many intelligence analysts are being instructed to dot the I’s but in the case of Iraq the analysis went to far and also crossed the T’s. Here is the previously untold story of what really happened.
Program for Culture and Conflict Studies at NPS-Online Journal
The American grand strategic experience has been framed largely as the historic triumph of democracy over tyranny, and in its evolution as a state, from agrarian society to modern-industrial superpower, it has wedded capitalism with democracy into its favored ideology. But a less often told but every bit as salient tale of America’s formative experience is that of the conquest by the emergent American state of the many fractious indigenous tribes whose homelands became American territory through war, conquest, and unequal (and highly coercive) diplomacy.
Germination ecology of Central Asian Stipa spp: differences among species, seed provenances, and the importance of field studies
Stipa-species are wide-spread in Central Asia, but sexual reproduction in the dry steppes is rare. To facilitate conservation and restoration of these important rangelands, we studied germination characteristics of three common Mongolian Stipa-species under field- and lab conditions. Seeds of Stipa krylovii, Stipa gobica and Stipa glareosa were sown at the study site in Southern Mongolia over two consecutive years during which period tests were carried out to ascertain whether competition or herbivory are the main constraints of seedling establishment. In addition, we tested germination and seed viability in the laboratory under two different temperature regimes (20/10°C and 8/4°C), as well as the effect of cold-stratification. The lab experiments also included S. krylovii seeds originating from three climatically different provenances. None of the three Stipa-species seedlings emerged during the first 2 years of the field study. However, after an unusually intense rain event in the third year, 3% of S. krylovii, 0.6% of S. glareosa and 0.1% of S. gobica seeds germinated in the study plots. The factors ‘sowing-year’ and ‘vegetation’ significantly affected seedling emergence, whereas grazing had no effect at all. Under laboratory conditions a high percentage of viable seeds of S. gobica and S. glareosa germinated at both incubation temperatures, and cold-stratification had no effect on germination or viability. Germination of S. krylovii seeds required warmer temperatures and cold-stratification had a positive effect. Such evidence for dormancy was more pronounced in seeds from the moister, northern provenances. Germination of Stipa-species in the field is rare and only possible under exceptionally moist conditions. Conservation should thus concentrate on steppe conservation rather than on restoration. Where artificial reseeding is necessary, differences among species and also among different seed provenances should be taken into account.