Modeling Financial Type 2b Globalization and its Repercussion on the Real Economy
Abstract The description of economic globalization still lacks a comprehensive formal and normative theory. The Globalization Types Model is a proposal to bridge this deficiency. Having modeled the globalization of physical trade flows, the so-called type 1 globalization with its different logics of subtypes 1a, 1b, and 1c, the aim now is to describe the globalization of finance, i.e. type 2b, and to integrate it into the Globalization Types Model. This paper analyses the repercussion of financial transactions on the evolution of economic cycles. Due to the mutual interactions of different systems, the modeling is not based on state equations but on principles of system dynamics with its positive and negative feedback loops. It puts the emphasis not on equilibrium but on transition modeling, i.e. on the triggering of state change. The result is a cognitive model showing the influence and systemic effects of financial transactions performed on commodity exchanges causing increased volatility of commodity prices and the repercussion on the industry value-chain. The model links the speculative part of financial type 2b globalization to physical demand and trade flows of globalization type 1, capital investments of globalization type 2a, as well as human migration of globalization type 3a and unemployment.
Evolution of Trade Globalization from 2003 to 2014: Weakening Dynamics of World Trade Confirms Globalization Postulates
This paper measures the globalization degree of physical trade flows based on WTO figures from 2003 to 2014. The paper is an annual update of former presented papers representing a long-term study analyzing the evolution of the globalization phenomenon. The entropy-based metrics used to compute the interweavement of trade flows is based on a Boltzmann derived concept of entropy, i.e., the higher the order (high inequality) the lower the entropy, leading to a new defined statistical entropy. Translated to economy: the higher the inequality (high concentration of flows) the lower the entropy, i.e., the lower the globalization degree resulting in a higher risk of the economic system. Former papers have shown that economic world trade, as a whole, has been globalizing during recent years but with different patterns: de-globalizing for advanced economic regions, such as North America and Europe, and globalizing for emerging economic regions. Furthermore, it shows that globalization or de-globalization, intended as interweavement of flows, is not a result of the absolute trade volume but of the growth rate of trade volume. The Globalization Trade Model with globalization type 1a of commodities, globalization type 1b of specialties, and opportunistic low-cost globalization type 1c gives an explanation for the different regional evolutions. At the beginning of economic development, globalization is governed by the H-O resource endowment trade logic complying with complementary needs of economic regions, spreading trade flows to new destinations, whereas advanced economies are concentrating on preferential destinations, following Linder’s trade model based on similar consumption patterns. However, after the financial crisis of 2008, during the last years, the evolution of world trade has been stagnating. Is the globalization of trade coming to an end? The aggregated result seems to confirm inverse Kuznets evolution of globalization, explainable with the Central Theorem of Globalization and the Maximizing-Value-Net-of-Risk globalization logic.
Gambling and Problem Gambling in Sweden: Changes Between 1998 and 2009
Gambling participation and rates of problem gambling change over time in response to a variety of factors including gambling availability, demographic changes and adaptation at individual and societal levels. These relationship are complex and only partially understood. The major aim of the present study was to provide general population estimates of gambling participation and problem gambling for Sweden and compare these estimates with estimates from a previous national study. The study was also designed to identify risk factors for problem gambling including change in these factors over time. Data are from the first phase of the Swedish Longitudinal Gambling Study (Swelogs) in which a representative sample of 8,165 people was assessed using validated problem gambling and other measures to facilitate comparison with findings from the 1997/1998 Swedish Gambling Study (Swegs). Overall, it was found that gambling participation reduced markedly, although in some population sectors increases were evident for some forms including poker and electronic gaming machines. Lifetime prevalence of probable pathological gambling increased; however, past 12 months probable pathological and problem gambling prevalence did not. Males, younger adults and people born outside Sweden were at high risk in both studies. Significant prevalence increases were evident for people aged 18–24 and those with low levels of education. The results indicate that relationships between gambling exposure, participation and problems are dynamic with shifting implications for public health and social policy.