Does uncertainty about oil prices slow down the economy
It's not the latest jump in oil prices that takes a toll on the economy but the uncertainty over what will happen in the future. But getting a handle on such uncertainty is a difficult task.
Reviewing the Oil Price - GDP Growth Relationship: A Replication Study
This paper presents a thorough replication of Hamilton (2003) which in turn replicates and extends the findings of four seminal papers regarding the oil price–GDP growth relationship. Firstly, we replicate the empirical results obtained with the oil price measures of Hamilton (1983), Mork (1989), Lee et al. (1995), Hamilton (1996), and Hamilton (2003) by using an identical data set of real and nominal oil prices. Secondly, we extend the data sets to 2019Q4 and apply the same methodology. We find that for more recent data the explanatory power of the proposed oil price measures on GDP growth rates is still present, albeit on a slightly weaker magnitude. Extending the ARX(4), we only find little evidence that oil price decreases impact GDP growth rates on the full data set. Parameter stability tests suggest that the impact of oil price decreases might be limited to certain periods.
The Lay of the Land: English Landscape Themes in Early Modern Painting in England
The Lay of the Land: English Landscape Themes in Early Modern Painting in England