Risk evaluation model for radiation protective countermeasures based on fuzzy entropy weight
On the basis of establishing a risk assessment index system, a model for assessing the risk of radiation protective countermeasures is proposed by introducing a fuzzy mathematics method and entropy weight theory, and the risk order of the radiation protective countermeasures is ranked by their entropy weight coefficients, which solves the decision problem of uncertain and fuzzy indexes in the risk assessment index system and could provide the decision-making basis for commanders in the process of nuclear accident rescue. The illustrative case study shows that the model could use the inherent information of the indexes adequately, and makes risk assessment for radiation protective countermeasures more reasonable, practicable and scientific.
Decision support in nuclear emergencies.
In a nuclear emergency, protective actions such as evacuation, sheltering and food bans can be taken to mitigate the consequences of any release of radioactivity. Within the RODOS project, an evaluation framework has been developed to support the assessment of the costs and benefits of potential actions. In order to help the decision makers gain insight into the decision problem and clarify their preferences, guidance can be given in three stages. First, the search of feasible portfolios of protective actions is seen as a constraint satisfaction problem; only those portfolios that satisfy constraints depending on factors such as feasibility are worth further evaluation. Second, the portfolios are ranked based on their consequences and the preferences of the decision makers using either a multi-attribute value or utility function. Third, a natural language report explaining the ranking is produced to help the decision makers gain insight into the decision problem and refine the decision parameters. An intelligent decision system has been developed to demonstrate the feasibility of the framework.
Design of a Decision Support System for use in the Event of a Nuclear Emergency
Nuclear accidents such as that at Chernobyl in 1986 have emphasised the need for improving the emergency management of any accidental release of radio-activity. RODOS is a real-time on-line decision support system intended to be used throughout all phases of a nuclear accident. It follows a consistent Bayesian methodology for handling uncertainty and the effective communication of this to the decision makers. Evaluation is based upon multi-attribute value and utility methods with extensive provision of sensitivity analysis and automated explanations to the decision maker.