Role of hydrological forecasts and river flow modelling in rational agricultural water management in the perspective of a climate change — A case study of the Rivers Upper Nile and Niger
Abstract An international scientific conference under the auspices of WMO, UNEP and ICSU on the role of CO 2 and other greenhouse gases in climate variation made a statement that, if the concentration of CO 2 in the atmosphere doubles in the near future as present trends indicate, the global mean surface temperature would increase by 1.5–4.5°C. The paper discusses the impact such a climate change may have on water resources and on their management in agriculture. It stresses the importance of the possible increase in variance and frequency of extreme climatic events and subsequent water yield. It further outlines the ways of exploring the consequences of such development by using hydrological and water management models. It also proposes that real-time hydrological forecasting systems, able to produce forecasts with long, medium and short lead times, are one of the most effective measures to offset possible negative effects of the climate change, by increasing the effectiveness of storage management. These propositions are documented by means of case studies from developing countries using models on the River Nile, in particular in the basin of Lake Victoria, and of a hydrological forecasting system on the River Niger. It is proposed that it is important to develop a simulation model of the whole River Nile, together with a real-time forecasting system on the river in order to operate efficiently existing and future storages. Modelling of climate change impact on the water yields of River Niger is also discussed.
Sensitivity of water resource systems to climate variation
ABSTRACT The problem of the response of water resource systems to climate variations is stated. The importance of the sensitivity of the systems to such variations is demonstrated with respect to the stationarity of the mean and the extremes. A definition of moderate climate variation is adopted. Results of deterministic modelling of the influence of such a variation on streamflow are reported, in extreme conditions of arid and humid basins. The results are used in modelling the influence of climate variations on reservoir storage systems. The model indicates a considerable amplification of the effect of climate change on runoff and storage and emphasizes the importance of studies of sensitivity of water resource systems to climate variation.
Die Populationsdynamik Von Canthocampt Us Staphylinus (Jurine) (Copepoda, Harpacticoida) Im Litoral Des Bodensees
The population dynamics of Canthocamptus staphylinus in the littoral zone of Lake Constance are described (fig. 2). Adult animals aestivate as cysts. The main part of the population emerges from the cysts in autumn. During the resting stage and the first spell after emerging, mortality is very low (fig. 3). Reproduction, expressed as numbers of ovigerous females, begins in November and reaches its maximum in January. The new generation becomes adult in May/June and encysts without previous reproduction. According to Sarvala (1979) it may be possible, that in littoral populations dormancy is induced by long day periods and temperatures of over 12° C (figs. 1, 2). In the profundal zone C. staphylinus also forms cysts, however, both light and temperature are not likely to induce this stage in depths of over 60 m.