Projecting the future cost of the French elderly disabled allowance using a microsimulation model
Confronted with an ageing population, developed countries are facing the challenge of providing care to a growing number of disabled elderly people. Knowing how many they will be and, given the current pensions and welfare systems, how much it will cost to care for them is crucial to policymakers. The INSEE pensions microsimulation tool (called Destinie) was extended in 2011 to elderly disability, in preparation for a reform of the funding of elderly disability in France. Microsimulation at the individual level allows to take into account expected changes in the distribution of variables that influence the process under study. It also allows to simulate allowances based on complex, non-linear scales that require calculation at the individual level. This document describes the implementation method and the results of the forecasts. First, on the characteristics of the disabled elderly and presence of caregivers. Then, several alternative scenarios are studied and yield a range of estimates of the future cost of the allowance for elderly disability, ranging from 0.54% of GDP in the most optimistic scenario to 0.71% of GDP in the most pessimistic one.
Le modèle de microsimulation Destinie 2 : principales caractéristiques et premiers résultats
Le modele Destinie est un modele de microsimulation dynamique qui a ete developpe et utilise a l'Insee depuis le milieu des annees 1990 et dont les principales applications concernent la retraite. Une nouvelle version de ce modele a ete mise en chantier a partir de 2005 et cet article en presente les principales caracteristiques. L'objectif de sa renovation a ete de disposer d'un outil plus flexible. La nouvelle version est constituee de deux blocs separes: un generateur de biographies demographiques et professionnelles, dont on a renforce la coherence avec les projections demographiques et de population active, et un simulateur de droits a retraite permettant la construction de projections de retraite sur mesure, sur la base des biographies issues de la premiere etape. Quelques exemples de simulations servent a illustrer les possibilites du nouveau modele. L'un de ses avantages est de permettre des calculs de droits au niveau des menages. Le modele montre par exemple que le niveau de vie relatif des retraites se stabiliserait a l'horizon 2050 entre 70 % et 75 % de celui des actifs, hors revenus du patrimoine et hors loyers imputes.
Agriculture and Intellectual Property Rights: Economic, Institutional and Implementation Issues in Biotechnology
1: Introduction, V Santaniello et al. 2: Patent and Other Private Legal Rights for Biotechnology Inventions (Intellectual Property Rights - IPR), D D Evenson, P.L.L.C., Washington, USA 3: Intellectual Property Rights of Plant Varieties and of Biotechnology in the European Union, V Santaniello 4: Intellectual Property Rights under the Convention on Biological Diversity, W Lesser, Cornell University, USA 5: An Economic Approach to Identifying An `Effective Sui Generis System' for Plant Variety Protection Under TRIPS, W Lesser 6: Recent Intellectual Property Rights Controversies and Issues at the CGIAR, S H Bragdon, IPGRI, Rome, Italy 7: Economics of Intellectual Property Rights for Agricultural Technology, R E Evenson 8: The Market Value of Farmers' Rights, R Mendelsohn, Yale University, USA 9: International Crop Breeding in a World of Proprietary Technology, B D Wright, University of California, USA 10: Knowledge Management and the Economics of Agricultural Biotechnology, D Zilberman and C Yarkin, University of California, USA and A Heiman, Hebrew University, Israel 11: Comparing Allocation of Resources in Public and Private Research, S Lemarie, Universite Pierre-Mendes, Grenoble, France 12: Biotechnology Inventions: What Can We Learn From Patents?, D K N Johnson, Wellesley College, Massachusetts, USA and V Santaniello 13: Biotechnology Inventions: Patent Data Evidence, A Zohrabyan, Yale University, USA and R E Evenson 14: Property Rights and Regulations for Transgenic Crops in North America, G Carlson and M Marra, North Carolina State University, USA 15: Intellectual Property Rights, Canola and Public Research in Canada, P W B Phillips, University of Saskatchewan, Canada