ASSESSMENT OF ULTRASONIC NONDESTRUCTIVE INSPECTION DATA USING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION
Ultrasonic NDE is one of important technologies in the life-time maintenance of nuclear power plant. Ultrasonic inspection system is consisted of the operator, equipment and procedure. The reliability of ultrasonic inspection system is affected by its ability. The performance demonstration round robin was conducted to quantify the capability of ultrasonic inspection for in-service. The small number of teams who employed procedures that met or exceeded ASME Sec. XI Code requirements detected the piping of nuclear power plant with various cracks to evaluate the capability of detection and sizing. In this paper, the statistical reliability assessment of ultrasonic nondestructive inspection data using Monte Carlo simulation is presented. The results of the probability of detection (POD) analysis using Monte Carlo simulation are compared to these of logistic probability model. In these results, Monte Carlo simulation was found to be very useful to the reliability assessment for the small NDE hit/miss data sets.
Identifying sources of variation for reliability analysis of field inspections
It has been recognized that nondestructive inspection (NDI) techniques and instruments that have proven themselves in the laboratory do not always perform as well under field conditions. In this paper the authors explore combinations of formal laboratory and field experimentation to characterize NDI processes as they may be implemented in field conditions. They also discuss appropriate modeling for probability of detection (POD) curves as applied to data gathered under field conditions. A case is made for expanding the more traditional two-parameter models to models using either three or four parameters. They use NDI data gathered from various airframe inspection programs to illustrate the points.
Lake Muzahi, Rwanda: limnological features and phytoplankton production
Lake Muhazi, a small lake of Rwanda (East Africa) was studied from 1986 to 1990. A dramatic decrease of the catch of Oreochromis niloticus (350 T y−1 in the fifties vs 30 T y−1 in 1982) suggested a loss of productivity or overfishing. In the same period, other ecological changes occurred: the submerged macrophytes regressed and there was a decrease in Secchi depth (0.65 m in 1987 vs 1.5 m in the fifties). Compared to other lakes of the same area, the plankton production seemed low. The results of the present study characterize lake Muhazi as a shallow lake with a rather unstable diurnal stratification and with slight differences in mixing regime between its eastern, deepest part and its western, shallowest part. Secchi disk depth does not vary seasonally to a large extent. The water has a rather high mineral content (conductivity of about 500 µS cm−1 at 25 °C) and low concentrations of dissolved N and P, except in the hypolimnion, where NHinf4sup+-N can be high.Two species, Microcystis aeruginosa and Ceratium hirundinella, account for most of the phytoplankton biomass, which is about 50–80 mg chlorophyll a m−2 in the euphotic zone, usually with little seasonal variation. Daily gross production estimates amount to about 6 to 9.5 g O2 m−2 d−1 with a significant difference between the two parts of the lake. Data on C:N and C:P ratio in the phytoplankton suggest that some N deficiency might occur in the eastern part. Moreover, the Zm:Zc ratio could also lead to rather low net production rates (0.21–0.25 d−1 for a mixed layer of 4 m)In conclusion, the primary production of lake Muhazi is medium for African lakes and the hypothesis that decreased planktonic production could account for a reduced fish production should be discarded. Whereas the present yield of the fishery is only 20 kg ha−1 y−1, the yield estimated from primary production ranges between 46 and 64 kg ha−1 y−1. This could be reached through proper management. Finally, some hypotheses are given to explain the ecological changes which occurred in the lake.