Getting Your Forecasting and Planning Fundamentals Right: A Case Study
In our previous issue (Winter 2011), Alec Finney and Martin Joseph advised readers on how to fine-tune a company’s forecasting and planning fundamentals. They recommended a three-step audit to focus on: • How good do we think we are? • In reality, how good are we? • How good should we strive to become? This new article illustrates how the audit process plays out within an organization. It provides two accounts based on a case study of a global biotechnology specialty-care group based in Paris, France. Alec and Martin’s story presents the auditors’ viewpoint. It describes the way the audit and subsequent analysis probed beneath the surface to reveal not only consensus views but polarized and outlying views. Hannah’s story is the internal view at the company, describing the challenges faced, how the interviews were received, and how the recommendations were presented to management. She concludes with an assessment of the benefits that accrued. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011
Solving the problems of new product forecasting
An important consideration in solving the problems of new product forecasting entails distinguishing new product forecasting from the process of forecasting existing products. Particular differences between the two can be identified across the dimensions of data, analytics, forecast, plan, and measurement. For example, new product forecasting features little to no data with which to begin the process, whereas data are available and accessible in forecasting existing products. The minimal data situation requires a qualitative approach that lays out assumptions to provide transparency; in contrast, quantitative techniques are predominantly used when forecasting existing products. Different assumptions help construct a range of new product forecast outcomes on which company contingencies can be planned versus a singular point forecast for an existing product. And the measure of forecast accuracy, which is a common metric in forecasting existing products, must give way to meaningfulness so that the new product forecast is actionable. Recognizing new product forecasting as a cross-functional, company-wide process helps resolve the problems of new product forecasting. While incapable of remedying all problems, a properly understood and organized new product forecasting effort can help the company better prepare, execute, and support a new product launch, affording a greater propensity to achieve new product success.
Characterization of Aqueous Dispersions and Gels Made of Sodium Caseinate and Basil Seed Gum: Phase Behavior, Rheology, and Microstructure
The interactions between sodium caseinate (NaCas) and basil seed gum (BSG) in the presence of calcium chloride (CaCl 2 ) were investigated. The phase behavior of the mixed aqueous dispersions and their gels revealed a homogeneous mixture, obtained at the higher concentrations of both CaCl 2 and BSG. The Herschel-Bulkley model sufficiently fitted the flow behavior of the mixture solution data. Apparent viscosity increased significantly ( p  < 0.05) by increasing the concentration of BSG, where the addition of CaCl 2 had no significant effect on the viscosity of the samples ( p  > 0.05). Furthermore, there was an increase in thixotropy due to the higher concentrations of BSG and CaCl 2 . Based on the frequency sweep test, at the low frequencies, a more gel-like behavior was observed in the case of the higher concentrations of either BSG or CaCl 2 . The rheological and SEM data suggested that the stronger structure of NaCas-BSG gel in the presence of the higher concentrations of CaCl 2 was related to the induction of complex formation between the two biopolymers.