Exchange Market Pressure and the Credibility of Macau's Currency Board
In this study, we assess the credibility of the currency board arrangement (CBA) of the Macau Special Administrative Region by studying the relationship between exchange market pressure (EMP) and the anchors of a rule-based CBA, namely, interest rate arbitrage, exchange rate arbitrage and economic discipline. A pure CBA signals its credibility by allowing the first two anchors to function automatically and by pursuing sound fiscal policies. The analysis’ results suggest that Macau’s CBA has been characterised by a state of low volatility since late 1992, with the brief exception of the East Asian financial crisis period. The paper’s main finding is that fiscal fundamentals seem to have a more pronounced role in reducing EMP’s variability during periods of low volatility whilst interest rate arbitrage is more important in periods of high volatility. We conclude that Macau’s CBA is credible at present as reflected in the low frequency of observed EMP, in the narrowing of Macau’s interest rate differential vis-a-vis U.S. interest rates and in Macau’s substantial fiscal reserves.
Exchange Market Pressure in Central Europe: An Application of the Girton-Roper Model
This paper applies the Girton-Roper model of exchange market pressure (EMP) on four Central European economies (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia) over the period 1995-2008. The results suggest that there is a strong negative relation between domestic credit and EMP in all countries. We also found evidence of positive effect of domestic income on EMP in most of the countries. The paper reveals that EMP in the Czech Republic and Hungary was mostly absorbed by changes of exchange rate while changes in reserves absorbed EMP in Slovakia. The levels of EMP estimated do not pose a significant threat for fulfilment of the exchange rate stability convergence criterion.
Purchasing power parity within the United States
Economics has many articles of faith. One of the most dearly held is Purchasing Power Parity, which posits that the price of the same good in different regions should be equivalent when no barriers to arbitrage exist. Because Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is an important assumption in much of international economic theory, this article examines empirical evidence testing this proposition. ; Instead of analyzing international data, this study analyzes PPP between regions of the United States. By comparing regions within a country, it eliminates many of the hypotheses offered to explain the failure of PPP. The results of this study are suggestive. PPP fails to hold within regions of the United States. Instead, the inclusion of nontraded goods in the total consumer price indices for these regions is shown to be the major cause of this failure. When the nontraded components of these indices are removed, PPP holds. Some categories of goods do seem to move in lockstep while others do not, as one would expect, and as PPP predicts.