Desertification in southern Europe
The threat of desertification appears in southern Europe when periods of prolonged drought are followed by torrential rains falling on steep, unstable terrain. The plant cover of many regions has been degraded since very ancient times. Some are now recovering as a result of emigration and reduce pressure on the land. Tourist and commercial agricultural developments threaten habitat values and water supplies, especially in certain coastal areas. Relatively abundant archeological and literary resources offer excellent opportunities for tracing land use histories and throwing more light on the nature and direction of environmental change. Such longitudinal studies should be integrated with remote sensing and nested sampling on the ground of current landscape conditions and monitoring of current processes.
Assessment of climate extremes in the Eastern Mediterranean
SummarySeveral seasonal and annual climate extreme indices have been calculated and their trends (over 1958 to 2000) analysed to identify possible changes in temperature- and precipitation-related climate extremes over the eastern Mediterranean region. The most significant temperature trends were revealed for summer, where both minimum and maximum temperature extremes show statistically significant warming trends. Increasing trends were also identified for an index of heatwave duration. Negative trends were found for the frequency of cold nights in winter and especially in summer. Precipitation indices highlighted more regional contrasts. The western part of the study region, which comprises the central Mediterranean and is represented by Italian stations, shows significant positive trends towards intense rainfall events and greater amounts of precipitation. In contrast, the eastern half showed negative trends in all precipitation indices indicating drier conditions in recent times. Significant positive trends were revealed for the index of maximum number of consecutive dry days, especially for stations in southern regions, particularly on the islands.
Impacts of climate and land use changes on flood risk management for the Schijn River, Belgium
Abstract Flooding is the most common natural disaster in Europe. Modern flood risk management relies not only infrastructure development but also on governmental and non-governmental actors applying legal, economic and communicative water management instruments. Within the European Union (EU), flood management closely relies on policy set at the EU and national levels. It is now recognized that a sound understanding of climate change is required in addition to current management by taking into account land use change and socio-political context, as climate and land use changes have major impacts on hydrological responses. This paper investigates the hydrological behavior due to urbanization under current and future climate scenarios of high summer and high winter rainfall for 20 sub-catchments of the Schijn River, located in the Flanders region near Antwerp, Belgium. As urbanization increases and existing rainfall-runoff models neglecting the specific behavior of urban runoff, a hydrological model was developed based on a basic reservoir concept and applied to the existing rainfall-runoff model (PDM) flow to examine the specific urban contribution. Results revealed that peak flow for urban runoff and the total peak flow (i.e. rural and urban runoff) were significantly higher (i.e. ranges from 200% to 500%) than the existing rainfall-runoff model (PDM) flows, because of faster and more peaked urban runoff response. The impact of climate change on current and future conditions was also assessed by estimating peak flows with respect to return periods from the flood frequency curve. The predicted peak flow of high summer future climate scenario was significantly higher (i.e. ranges from 200% to 250%) than that of the current climatic condition for this region. Furthermore, hourly peak flow and daily volume ratios of 100-year return period for the highest, lowest and average impervious area were projected for the time horizon of the year 2100. It is concluded that climate change impacts contribute the most in producing peak flow in coming years, while increased urbanization takes the second place for both hourly and daily values. Results on urbanization effect and climate change impact assessment are useful to the water managers for spatial planning, emergency planning and insurance industry.