Faktor-Faktor yang Memengaruhi Volume Impor Komoditas Jeruk di Indonesia
YOSEP ANDREW TAO SILITONGA. Factors Affecting the Import Volume of Fresh Oranges in Indonesian. Supervised by IDQAN FAHMI. Indonesia has many varietes of export product that if specially classified, it consists of agricultural commodities, mining commodities, and manufacturing industries. These varieties require Indonesia to develop products from each classification. One of them is the products or commodities that derived from the agricultural sector. This research aims to analyze factors that may affect the volume of citrus imports in Indonesia and studies about how the dynamics and conditions of citrus impor commodity in Indonesia. The methods that used in research are descriptive and panel data methods from 2002-2012 that involve six countries (Malaysia, China, Thailand, Pakistan, Australia, dan Hongkong). Data from BPS show, that during 2002 to 2012, Indonesia continued to perform its trading activity and during that time Indonesia did Citrus import to meet domestics needs. The research depicted that in 2012, for citrus comodity it self, Indonesia’s trade balance trend is negative. We also study other factors that affect impor value, such as : domestic citrus production, price of domestic citrus, price of import citrus, currency exchange rate and dummy crisis. The factor that significantly affect the most is the price of citrus abroad.
Pengaruh Konsumsi, Produksi, Kurs Dollar AS dan PDB Pertanian Terhadap Impor Bawang Putih Indonesia
As an agricultural country, Indonesia has great potentials in the agricultural sector. But nowadays,the problem occurred in the agricultural sector is quite disturbing indonesian's economic. The increasing of horticultural products import, showed as if horticultural products could not compete. Based on data from BPS, horticultural commoditiy imported highest is garlic. This research intended to determine the influence of consumption, production, U.S. dollar exchange rate and the GDP of agriculture to the import of garlic in  Indonesia. Besides that, this research also aimed to determine the variables that most affected the import of garlic, which used linear regression analysis. The results showed that consumption, production, U.S. dollar exchange rate and the GDP of agricilture effected simutaniosly and significant to the import of garlic. Then partially, consumption and the GDP of agriculture has significant and positive effect to the import of garlic. Production and the U.S. dollar exchange rate had no significant effect and the variables that most affected to the import of garlic in indonesia is GPD of agriculture.
The Effect of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on Import: TARCH Approach
This paper investigates the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the Iran’s import trade. The exchange rate ‎uncertainty series were generated utilizing the TARCH model. This model analyzes the asymmetric effects. The analysis of uncertainty and asymmetry ‎of the exchange rate shows significant TARCH ‎effect on Iran’s exchange rates‎. The findings of the study indicate negative shocks (bad news) had greater impact on volatility during the period. In the next stage imports demand function is estimated. There was a long run relationship among, real import ‎demand, real national income, real exchange rate and uncertainty of real exchange rate. Results show significant ‎and negative impact of exchange rate uncertainty on Iran’s imports, and import demand is positively affected by ‎real national income. Furthermore significant and negative impact of real exchange rate on Iran’s real imports is ‎found.‎