Getting Your Forecasting and Planning Fundamentals Right: A Case Study
In our previous issue (Winter 2011), Alec Finney and Martin Joseph advised readers on how to fine-tune a company’s forecasting and planning fundamentals. They recommended a three-step audit to focus on: • How good do we think we are? • In reality, how good are we? • How good should we strive to become? This new article illustrates how the audit process plays out within an organization. It provides two accounts based on a case study of a global biotechnology specialty-care group based in Paris, France. Alec and Martin’s story presents the auditors’ viewpoint. It describes the way the audit and subsequent analysis probed beneath the surface to reveal not only consensus views but polarized and outlying views. Hannah’s story is the internal view at the company, describing the challenges faced, how the interviews were received, and how the recommendations were presented to management. She concludes with an assessment of the benefits that accrued. Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2011
Solving the problems of new product forecasting
An important consideration in solving the problems of new product forecasting entails distinguishing new product forecasting from the process of forecasting existing products. Particular differences between the two can be identified across the dimensions of data, analytics, forecast, plan, and measurement. For example, new product forecasting features little to no data with which to begin the process, whereas data are available and accessible in forecasting existing products. The minimal data situation requires a qualitative approach that lays out assumptions to provide transparency; in contrast, quantitative techniques are predominantly used when forecasting existing products. Different assumptions help construct a range of new product forecast outcomes on which company contingencies can be planned versus a singular point forecast for an existing product. And the measure of forecast accuracy, which is a common metric in forecasting existing products, must give way to meaningfulness so that the new product forecast is actionable. Recognizing new product forecasting as a cross-functional, company-wide process helps resolve the problems of new product forecasting. While incapable of remedying all problems, a properly understood and organized new product forecasting effort can help the company better prepare, execute, and support a new product launch, affording a greater propensity to achieve new product success.
Modelling environmental impacts of marine finfish aquaculture
Summary Our understanding of the interactions between fish farms and the environment has reached the stage where it is reasonable to expect that quantitative estimates of the possible environmental consequences of aquaculture development can be provided for regulatory and mitigation purposes. This paper summarizes recent developments in this area and provides several case histories of areas where theoretical analyses appear to have direct practical relevance. Fish wastes