Analysis of Chinese Power: The Economic Base and Potential for Military and Political Power
Abstract : It is the purpose of this thesis to measure the economic base of China and to predict her economic potential over the next 10 years. In the next decade, Communist China cannot become a world power. Her economic base is just not adequate enough to take such a giant step in such a short period of time. The basic issues are a huge and expanding population, inability to feed the population, and the absence of the means to rapidly develop Chinese industry. This is not to say that China cannot become a world power -- for she can. She has adequate natural resources; she has human resources; she has an industrial base that is expanding slowly; she has leadership dedicated to making China a world power; she has space and land, even though productive land is scarce; she has an illiterate, but responsive, population; she has the advantage of centralized control and planning for all aspects of the economy; she has discovered the value of incentives to aid production; she shows signs of a willingness to take steps to control population growth; she has a well-supported "National Purpose" of making herself significant in the world; she has no neighbors that seek her territory; and she has a government that is in complete control and has the will and the means to direct China's destiny. In short, China's economic base is not adequate for world power now, but it has all the necessary attributes to become a world power over a period of 30 to 50 years. This time factor could be shortened considerably if China were to make herself respectable and trusted internationally. China could get much needed industrial imports much faster if she presented a less belligerent attitude toward other countries. Even now, countries like France, Canada, Australia, and others are interested in expanding trade with China.
Industrial Development in Communist China . Edited by Choh-ming Li. New York: Frederick Praeger, 1964. 205. $5.75.
gives the year of the formulation of the new economic policy of priority for agriculture over industry as 1962 (p. 296) instead of i960. Ronald Hsia concisely summarizes Chinese economic development as a whole into three phases: a period of considerable progress due to Soviet aid and government effort in capital formation and industrial construction; a period of set-back due to irrational use of manpower and resources under the Great Leap Forward, natural calamities, and the end of Soviet aid; and the post-Leap period of reorientation, stressing agriculture and self-reliance.
Deliberative Democracy and the Resource Curse: A Nationwide Experiment in Tanzania
Oil and gas discoveries in developing countries are often associated with short-sighted economic policies and, in response, calls to insulate resource management from populist impulses. We report on a randomized experiment testing methods to overcome this apparent tension between sound resource governance and democratic politics. Soon after Tanzania’s discovery of major natural gas reserves, we invited a nationally representative sample of voters to an intensive public deliberation of policy options featuring nationally recognized experts and small-group discussions. Democratic deliberation reinforced the public’s strong preference for rapid spending of gas revenues, but also increased support for various prudential and economically orthodox measures, including independent oversight of gas revenues, limits on government borrowing, and selling gas abroad rather than subsidizing fuel at home. These effects were driven by deliberation per se, rather than a pure information treatment, and show no evidence of contamination by facilitatoror peer-effects in group deliberations. www.cgdev.org Justin Sandefur, Nancy Birdsall, James Fishkin, and Mujobu Moyo