A Simple Empirical Method for Predicting Library Circulations
Recent work has demonstrated that stochastic models, incorporating a time parameter, have great potential value for library management in predicting future use of library materials, particularly in the presence of ageing of materials. In this paper a simple empirical Bayes method is presented which avoids the analytic complexity of earlier models and which may therefore be more attractive to the library manager. In particular, the ‘prediction profile’ is advocated as a useful additon to the manager's toolbox.
Ambiguity and scientometric measurement: A dissenting view
Abe Bookstein has long been a persuasive advocate of the central role of the classical Lotka-Bradford-Zipf laws in bibliometrics and, subsequently, scientometrics and informetrics. In a series of often-quoted papers (Bookstein, [1977], [1990a], [1990b], [1997]), he has sought to demonstrate that Lotka-type laws have a unique resilience to various forms of reporting, which leads inevitably and naturally to their observance in empirical informetric data collected under a wide variety of circumstances. A general statement of his position was featured in the recent JASIST Special Topic Issue on Information Science at the Millennium (Bookstein, [2001]). We shall argue that there are grounds to dispute some of the logic, the mathematics, and the reality of the development. The contention is on the one hand that Bookstein's development lacks a rigorous mathematical basis, and on the other, that, in general, informetric processes are adequately described within a standard probabilistic framework with stochastic modelling offering the more productive approach.
Continuity, Legitimacy, and Agricultural Development: Conclusions
This chapter aims at bringing together the principal conclusions of the volume, emphasising some particular aspects and questions. Policy continuity in relation to the late 1980s was rightly defined by the Aylwin government policymakers as an essential instrument for further agricultural growth. But in a democratic environment the Aylwin policies, in part precisely because of their strong element of continuity, could be implemented only if they were perceived as legitimate by the majority of the rural population, and by the poor in particular. This means that substantial improvements in agricultural income distribution, and in the quantity and quality of the social services provided to the rural poor, were unavoidable. In order to achieve legitimacy it was, and is, necessary to introduce changes. A lucid, creative combination of continuity and change was the only guarantee of success for the Aylwin policies, and for those of future democratic administrations. Continuity and legitimacy are the fundamental pillars for democratic agricultural development.