Weather Derivative Pricing and the Year-Ahead Forecasting of Surface Air Temperature: An Empirical Evaluation of Damped Linear Detrending
The pricing of temperature derivatives is often based on statistical methods that predict the surface air temperature a year in advance. We perform an empirical comparison of three simple methods for such year-ahead temperature forecasting and draw clear conclusions about their relative merits. The three methods we consider are the standard flat-line and best-fit linear detrending methods and the recently introduced damped linear detrending method.
Optimal Year Ahead Forecasting of Temperature in the Presence of a Linear Trend, and the Pricing of Weather Derivatives
We consider the question of how to predict air temperatures a year in advance. We introduce a new prediction scheme that generalizes the standard flat line and best fit linear trend models and gives RMSE optimal predictions when the real trend is linear.
A quantitative measure of nitrifying bacterial growth.
Nitrifying bacteria convert ammonia (NH3) to nitrate (NO3-) in a nitrification reaction. Methods to quantitatively separate the growth rate of these important bacterial populations from that of the dominant heterotrophic bacteria are important to our understanding of the nitrification process. The changing concentration of ammonia is often used as an indirect measure of nitrification but ammonification processes generate ammonia and confound this approach while heterotrophs remove nitrate via denitrification. Molecular probe methods can tell us what proportion of the microbial community is nitrifying bacteria but not their growth rate. The technique proposed here was able to quantify the growth rate of the nitrifying bacterial populations amidst complex ecological processes. The method incubates [methyl-3H] thymidine with water samples in the presence and absence of an inhibitor of nitrification-thiourea. The radioactively labeled DNA in the growing bacteria was extracted. The rate of incorporation of the label into the dividing bacterial DNA was used to determine bacterial growth rate. Total bacterial community growth rates in full-scale and pilot-scale fixed-film nitrifying reactors and an activated sludge reactor were 2.1 x 10(8), 4.1 x 10(8) and 0.4 x 10(8)cell ml(-1)d(-1), respectively; the growth rate of autotrophic-nitrifying bacteria was 0.7 x 10(8), 2.6 x 10(8) and 0.01 x 10(8)cell ml(-1)d(-1), respectively. Autotrophic-nitrifying bacteria contributed 30% and 60% of the total bacterial community growth rate in the nitrifying reactors whereas only 2% was observed in the activated sludge reactor that was not designed to nitrify. The rates of ammonia loss from the nitrifying reactors corresponded to the rate of growth of the nitrifying bacteria. This method has the potential to more often identify factors that enhance or limit nitrifying processes in both engineered and natural aquatic environments.