Rising from the Ashes: A Governance Perspective on Emerging Systemic Risks
Unpredictable events -like an infrastructure failure such as a blackout (e.g. the 1999 southern Brazil blackout or the northeast blackout of 2003 that occurred in the US and Canada), a large-scale financial crisis with deep consequences on the real economy (e.g. the Icelandic and the Greek crises), a non-conventional terrorist attack (committed with chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear weapons), the risk related to the exploitation of new technologies (typically nanotechnologies), or a geophysical event (as the 2010 volcanic ash crisis or the 2011 Japan earthquake) - may suddenly cause large-scale losses. The knock-on effect of these events grows beyond the direct social and economic impact on a specific geographic area, affecting simultaneously different regions and imposing immediate regulatory answers.
An optimal co-reinsurance strategy
This article considers a co-reinsurance strategy that (1) protects insurance companies against catastrophic risks; (2) enables insurers to gather sufficient information about the different risk attitudes of reinsurers and diversify their reinsured risks; (3) enables insurers to create better risk-sharing profiles by balancing the risk tolerances of reinsurers; (4) has the benefit of allowing reinsurers to accumulate experience with risks with which they are unfamiliar; (5) reduces the overall direct cost of a reinsurance contract; (6) allows a government to back some insurance products, such as the terrorism insurance programs that were established in many countries after the September 11th terrorist attacks; and (7) reflects the practical reinsurance industry of some countries, such as Iran. Such a co-reinsurance strategy can be fully determined by estimating its parameters whenever three optimal criteria are satisfied and prior information about the unknown parameters is available. Two simulation-based studies have been conducted to demonstrate (1) the practical applications of our findings and (2) the possible impact of any type of dependency between the co-reinsurance’s parameters and the evaluated optimal co-reinsurance strategy.
High‐precision U‐Pb zircon age calibration of the global Carboniferous time scale and Milankovitch band cyclicity in the Donets Basin, eastern Ukraine
High‐precision ID‐TIMS U‐Pb zircon ages for 12 interstratified tuffs and tonsteins are used to radiometrically calibrate the detailed lithostratigraphic, cyclostratigraphic, and biostratigraphic framework of the Carboniferous Donets Basin of eastern Europe. Chemical abrasion of zircons, use of the internationally calibrated EARTHTIME mixed U‐Pb isotope dilution tracer, and improved mass spectrometry guided by detailed error analysis have resulted in an age resolution of <0.05%, or ∼100 ka, for these Carboniferous volcanics. This precision allows the resolution of time in the Milankovitch band and confirms the long‐standing hypothesis that individual high‐frequency Pennsylvanian cyclothems and bundles of cyclothems into fourth‐order sequences are the eustatic response to orbital eccentricity (∼100 and 400 ka) forcing. Tuning of the fourth‐order sequences in the Donets Basin to the long‐period eccentricity cycle results in a continuous age model for the Middle to Late Pennsylvanian (Moscovian‐Kasimovian‐Ghzelian) strata of the basin and their record of biological and climatic changes through the latter portion of the late Paleozoic Ice Age. Detailed fusulinid and conodont zonations allow the export of this age model to sections throughout Euramerica. Additional ages for Mississippian strata provide among the first robust radiometric calibration points within this subperiod and result in variable lowering of the base ages of its constituent stages compared to recent global time scale compilations.