INTERNAL MIGRATION IN TURKEY, 1965–1985: TEST OF CONFLICTING FINDINGS IN THE LITERATURE
The purpose of this paper is to bring new insights to some of the conflicting findings in the migration literature about developing countries by using detailed analyses of Turkish migration data. The possible reasons behind inconsistencies in the findings are explained in terms of spatial and temporal characteristics of the data, and by national macro factors (mainly the level of urbanization and the characteristics of the urban systems). Tested were rural outâ€ migration and push factors; changes in the size of ruralâ€ toâ€ urban and urbanâ€ toâ€ rural return migration; the effect of distance; and the share and effect of ruralâ€ toâ€ urban migration in the urban growth and in the unbalanced population distribution in developing countries.
Labor-Market Consequences of Internal Migration in Turkey
During the past 30 years, Turkey has undergone profound economic and social transformations, including fundamental shifts from a state-oriented economy to a market-oriented economy, large-scale modernization investments in telecommunication and transportation services, and low-intensity ongoing armed conflict concentrated in the country’s southeastern region. For such a period, using the 1990 and 2000 Turkish censuses, I evaluated the labor-market consequences of internal migration that might have been sparked by such significant economic and social changes. Overall, the results suggest that provinces with a higher share of recent migrants may observe decreases in their native population’s labor-market opportunities. While this adverse impact of the recent migrant inflows remains robust, it exhibits heterogeneity with respect to the skill level of natives, as well as for the labor-market outcomes of different native and migrant groups.
Migration and the Dynamics of Multiregional Population Systems
This paper gives a personal perspective on some models of national settlement systems, and draws attention to the importance of population migration within these models. It includes a discussion of the inadequacies of current models of interurban migration for the analysis of the dynamic interaction between the demographic and economic growth sectors of a system of postindustrìal cities. The paper is not, however, a review; instead, the aim is to obtain insights on how to progress towards a framework and a strategy for research that will usefully contribute to the analysis of national settlement policy. Section 2 considers recent developments in multiregional demographic analysis and argues that these are of limited usefulness unless they are integrated with models of regional economic growth. Results are presented which show that multiregional demographic analyses are extremely sensitive to the assumptions about migration movements. Section 3 outlines three models which interrelate demographic and economic growth, and stresses the links between the two sectors. Each model considers population migration a key link, and two of them assume that the movement of workers provides an equilibrating mechanism between labour supply and demand. Section 4 questions the validity of this traditional approach to migration and argues that, for a system of postindustrial cities, a new approach is required (Morrison, 1973; Renshaw, 1972; Cordey-Hayes and Gleave, 1973; 1974). A conceptual framework, which emphasizes information flows, differential mobility, and inhomogeneity of labour, is sketched. The final section concludes that no single model or approach provides a royal road to models of national settlement systems, owing to gaps in our understanding of the dynamics of interactions amongst cities. It is suggested that a hierarchy of models should be developed at varying levels of approximation.