Many Targets, Many Instruments: Where Do We Stand?
Thank you to the International Monetary Fund for allowing me to take part in what I expect will be a very lively discussion. 1  Only five or six years ago, there wouldn ’ t have been a panel on the “ many instruments ” and “ many targets ” of monetary policy. Before the financial crisis, the focus was on one policy instrument: the short-term policy interest rate. Although central banks did not uniformly rely on a single policy target, many adopted an “ inflation targeting ” framework that, as the name implies, gives a certain preeminence to that one objective. Of course, the Federal Reserve has long been a bit of an outlier in this regard, with its explicit dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment. Still, the discussion might not have gone much beyond “ one instrument and two targets ” if not for the financial crisis and its aftermath, which have presented central banks with great challenges and transformed how we look at this topic. Let me start with a few general observations to get the ball rolling. In terms of the targets, or, more generally, the objectives of policy, I see continuity in the abiding importance of a framework of flexible inflation targeting. By one authoritative account, about twenty-seven countries now operate full-fledged inflation-targeting regimes. 2 The United States is not on this list, but the Federal Reserve has embraced most of the key features of flexible inflation targeting: a commitment to promote low and stable inflation over a longer-term horizon, a predictable monetary policy, and clear and transparent communication. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) struggled for years to formulate an inflation goal that would not seem to give preference to price stability over maximum employment. In January 2012, the committee adopted a “ Statement on Many Targets, Many Instruments: Where Do We Stand?
A reconstrução da indústria brasileira: a conexão entre o regime macroeconômico e a política industrial
Este artigo, de cunho eminentemente analitico, mostra que no âmbito da politica macroeconomica, e necessaria consistencia entre as politicas monetaria, fiscal, cambial e salarial para viabilizar taxas de juros reais medias inferiores as taxas de retorno medias sobre o capital, taxas de câmbio reais competitivas (em torno da taxa de 'equilibrio industrial') e taxas de salarios que evoluam de acordo com o crescimento da produtividade, condicoes para que se assegure o crescimento economico sobre bases sustentaveis. Ja com respeito a politica industrial, e preciso perseguir estrategias de diversificacao produtiva, notadamente no setor manufatureiro e nos segmentos tradable do setor de servicos, mediante a identificacao de prioridades estrategicas tanto nas cadeias produtivas, segmentos e setores proximos a base de vantagem comparativa preexistente, como naqueles mais proximos a fronteira tecnologica internacional. Embora os argumentos analiticos favorecam a estrategia de diversificacao produtiva, esta nao deve ser confundida com semi-autarquia, o que significa que as cadeias e setores que nao sejam foco da politica industrial devem ter aliquotas de importacao zero ou proximas de zero.
World Drug Report 2000
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