Uncertainty Propagation in Integrated Airframe Propulsion System Analysis for Hypersonic Vehicles
Air{breathing hypersonic vehicles are based on airframe{integrated SCRAMjet engine. The elongated forebody which serves as the inlet of the engine is subject to harsh aerothermodynamic loading which causes it to deform. Unpredicted deformations may produce unstart, combustor chocking or structural failure due to increased loads. This study presents a framework allowing one to assess the impact of aerothermoelastic deformations on the engine performance prediction. Aerothermoelastic deformations are calculated for trajectories and angle of attack and transferred to a SCRAMjet engine analysis. Uncertainty associated with deformation prediction is propagated to the engine performance analysis. The importance of modeling the aerodynamic heating and aerothermoelastic deformations at the cowl of the inlet is noted. The cowl deformation is the main contributor to uncertainty and sensitivity of the propulsion system analysis.
Bayesian Calibration of Coupled Aerothermal Models Using Time-Dependent Data
Accurately quantifying the uncertainty in coupled aerothermoelastic response predictions for hypersonic aircraft structures is a critical and difficult challenge. A dynamic Bayesian network is constructed to enable Bayesian model calibration and confidence assessment of transient, coupled aerothermal models. Time-dependent temperature data from historic hypersonic wind tunnel experiments are incorporated into the dynamic Bayesian network to calibrate uncertain model parameters and model discrepancies through time. Global and incremental model discrepancy implementations are investigated and compared using the Bayes factor metric.
Complexities of Assessing the Disease Burden Attributable to Leishmaniasis
Among parasitic diseases, morbidity and mortality caused by leishmaniasis are surpassed only by malaria and lymphatic filariasis. However, estimation of the leishmaniasis disease burden is challenging, due to clinical and epidemiological diversity, marked geographic clustering, and lack of reliable data on incidence, duration, and impact of the various disease syndromes. Non-health effects such as impoverishment, disfigurement, and stigma add to the burden, and introduce further complexities. Leishmaniasis occurs globally, but has disproportionate impact in the Horn of Africa, South Asia and Brazil (for visceral leishmaniasis), and Latin America, Central Asia, and southwestern Asia (for cutaneous leishmaniasis). Disease characteristics and challenges for control are reviewed for each of these foci. We recommend review of reliable secondary data sources and collection of baseline active survey data to improve current disease burden estimates, plus the improvement or establishment of effective surveillance systems to monitor the impact of control efforts.