An Impact of Gas Prices on Transit Demand Using a Time-series Analysis and a Regression Analysis
Abstract Depending most of its energy sources on foreign countries, Korea efforts to reduce energy consumption in transportation. While studies on the relationship between gas price and transportation demand are many in number, most previous studies have focused on automobile and Seoul. This study analyzes the impact of gas price on transit (bus and subway) demand using monthly data and for various metropolitan areas (Seoul, Busan, Daejeon, Daegu and Gwangju). The research utilizes a time-series model and a multiple regression model, and calculates modal demand elasticities of gas price. The result shows that elasticities of subway demand with respect to gas price is higher than those of bus demand. In addition, elasticities of predominantly automobile cities are more likely to be more sensitive to gas price than those of cities with well-structured transit system.국내에서 소비되는 에너지의 대부분을 해외에 의존하고 있는 우리나라는 교통부문에서도 에너지 절감을 위해 많은 노력을 하고 있다 . 휘발유가격과 교통수요와의 관계는 국내외적으로 꾸준히 연구되어 왔으나 국내 선행연구는 승용차 및 수도권 중심으로 연구되어 왔다 . 본 연구에서는 휘발유가격이 대중교통수요에 미치는 영향을 분석하며 월별 자료를 활용하여 대중교통 수단별 (버스, 도시철도) 및 광역권별(수도권, 부산, 대전, 대구, 광주)로 실증적으로 비교분석했다. 분석을 위해 시계열모형과 다중회귀모형을 사용하였으며 회귀모형의 계수를 활용하여 유가에 대한 대중교통수요의 탄력성을 비교하였다 . 유가에 대한 수요탄력성이 버스보다 도시철도가 높게 나타났고 , 대중교통체계가 잘 갖춰진 수도권보다 승용차 의존적인 지방 광역권이 유가에 더 민감한 것으로 나타났다 .
Understanding links between transit ridership and auto gas prices: US and Australian evidence
Auto gas price rises have been cited as a major recent driver of transit ridership growth. Research in 2007 established that for every 10 per cent increase in gas prices, US transit demand has increased by 1.2 per cent. In Australia gas price impacts on ridership have been larger due to higher gas prices (20-30 per cent higher than US prices). Recent research demonstrates significant impacts on low income travellers and links between increased gas prices, rising home loan interest rates and ridership growth. This paper summarises the results of Australian research to establish the impacts of both auto gas prices and home loan interest rates on transit demand. The research disaggregates impacts by individual transit mode (rail, BRT and bus), service group and time period to explore causal factors. The research relates Australian findings to the US trends. Findings show that housing affordability is a critical influence on interest rate influences which might be relevant to the US. Longer distance travel was also associated with higher gas price ridership effects.
A system model for predicting the effect of energy resources on urban modal split
Abstract Using regional and state level data, including observations during the recent energy crisis, the methodology and first generation of a system model for predicting impact levels of fuel shortages upon modal split are reported. The data to such a system model has the characteristics of an input disturbance in a steady-state trend. Of importance is the long term effect if the disturbance becomes a regular input. The specific case reported is an analysis in the Tucson (Arizona) region of the fluctuations in travel demand in relation to population, economic condition and fuel availability indicators. Of major significance is the modeling techniques' ability to detect differential shifts to public transit during the recent reduction in gasoline availability.