Al-Qaeda and Its Affiliates: The Failure of the Transnational Network
Abstract : This monograph evaluates the tactical actions of al-Qaeda Core and three of its affiliated groups, Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), al-Shabaab, and the Islamic Emirate of the Caucuses (IEC). The case studies explore the origin, leadership, ideology, and tactical actions of the groups identified in an effort to analyze the relative success, or lack thereof, of brand al-Qaeda. The fundamental tension between the transnational aims espoused by al-Qaeda Core and the nationalist agendas which are at the heart of the affiliates actions are blindingly apparent.
Abu Musab Al Suri: Architect of the New Al Qaeda
Drawing on new sources, the authors argue that Abu Musab al Suri (real name Mustafa Setmariam Nasar), now in U.S. custody, is the principle architect of Al Qaeda's post–9/11 structure and strategy. His vision, which predated 9/11, of transforming Al Qaeda from a vulnerable hierarchical organization into a resilient decentralized movement, was largely the formula Al Qaeda adopted after the collapse of the Taliban. The authors show how Setmariam, whose ideas have been disseminated widely on the Internet and whose disciples have gravitated to leadership positions in the international jihad, has influenced Al Qaeda's post–9/11 strategy, targeting, and doctrine.
Using Fuzzy-Delphi technique to determine the concession period in BOT projects
BOT projects are affected by several risks and uncertainties. One of the most important issues in this type of contract is to determine the length of concession period considering these uncertainties. The previous studies have developed several models to determine the concession period. However, the uncertainties are not taking into account in most of the previous works. Moreover, none of the previous researches has the capability to aggregate the opinions of different experts being involved in a project regarding the values of the uncertain input parameters. In this research, a Fuzzy-Delphi technique is implemented to determine the length of concession period considering uncertainties. Using the proposed Fuzzy-Delphi technique, the values of different uncertain factors affecting a BOT project is determined considering opinions of a group of experts. The NPV value is calculated considering the resulted aggregated values of uncertain input parameters. Finally, the concession period is determined using fuzzy approach. A case study is conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed methodology. It is shown that the concession period is determined more effectively using the proposed approach.