Finanzhilfen des Bundes: eine Bestandsaufnahme
Subsidies granted by the German federal government decreased in the 1998–2004 period. Since 2005, subsidies have increased. The transfers to the compulsory health insurance system were raised by very large amounts. Moreover, the subsidies for re-integrating the unemployed were raised. The results are based on a comprehensive definition of subsidies; tax expenditures are not included, however.
Aufschwung lässt auf sich warten
Die Konjunktur in Deutschland ist nach dem schweren Einbruch wieder aufwarts gerichtet. Bis ein kraftiger Aufschwung einsetzt, wird jedoch noch Zeit vergehen. Im laufenden Winterhalbjahr durfte der gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktionsanstieg sogar niedriger ausfallen als im Halbjahr davor. Erst danach wird die Konjunktur allmahlich an Dynamik gewinnen. Fur das Jahr 2010 erwarten wir einen Anstieg des realen Bruttoinlandsprodukts um 1,2 Prozent (Prognose vom September: 1,0 Prozent), nach einem Ruckgang um 5,0 Prozent (September: 4,9 Prozent) im Jahr 2009. Im Jahr 2011 wird die gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktion voraussichtlich um 2 Prozent ausgeweitet werden.
Deliberative Democracy and the Resource Curse: A Nationwide Experiment in Tanzania
Oil and gas discoveries in developing countries are often associated with short-sighted economic policies and, in response, calls to insulate resource management from populist impulses. We report on a randomized experiment testing methods to overcome this apparent tension between sound resource governance and democratic politics. Soon after Tanzania’s discovery of major natural gas reserves, we invited a nationally representative sample of voters to an intensive public deliberation of policy options featuring nationally recognized experts and small-group discussions. Democratic deliberation reinforced the public’s strong preference for rapid spending of gas revenues, but also increased support for various prudential and economically orthodox measures, including independent oversight of gas revenues, limits on government borrowing, and selling gas abroad rather than subsidizing fuel at home. These effects were driven by deliberation per se, rather than a pure information treatment, and show no evidence of contamination by facilitatoror peer-effects in group deliberations. www.cgdev.org Justin Sandefur, Nancy Birdsall, James Fishkin, and Mujobu Moyo