From Secessionist Mobilization to Sub-state Nationalism? Assessing the Impact of Consociationalism and Devolution on Irish Nationalism in Northern Ireland
Survey evidence has demonstrated that support for a united Ireland from Catholics in Northern Ireland is markedly declining. Simultaneously, electoral support for the secessionist Sinn Féin party has substantially risen in the region since 1998. Critics have attributed Sinn Féin's electoral growth to consociational power sharing, which they argue rewards ethnic hardline parties. At the same time, many of these critics predicted that consociationalism would exacerbate secessionist sentiment within nationalism, a prognostication now contradicted by survey data. In analysing this paradox, we argue that there is not a switching of identities—from Irish nationalism to UK unionism—but the repositioning of Irish nationalism from a secessionist movement to a sub-state nationalism mobilizing for more resources within devolution. In explaining this, we illuminate how consociationalism allied to devolution can, if the right endogenous and exogenous supporting factors are mobilized, lead to the repositioning of identities within a regional rather than zero-sum national context.
The Slow Growth of Sinn Féin: From Minor Player to Centre Stage?
In this paper we ask if Sinn Fein could truly break the mould of Irish politics by moving to overtake Fianna Fail or the Labour party and become a mainstream party, or is it likely to remain at best a cameo player, which may have some relevance because of its coalition or blackmail potential. We can attempt to answer this question, which essentially looks to the future by examining the nature of Sinn Fein as it stands. We have some expectations of mainstream and minor parties in Ireland, which may differ from mainstream and minor parties in other countries. Mainstream parties tend to be heterogeneous in their support base; so the three established parties in Ireland tend to have broadly stable support across class, gender and age. Their support also tends to be reasonably evenly divided throughout the country, rather than focused in a small number of strongholds, often associated with individual politicians. Because minor parties often depend on a small number of notable political figures, the political organisation is often personalised and less rule-based than in major parties. Minor parties tend to be ideologically on the fringes, whereas mainstream parties tend to be more centrist, or more difficult to pin down in policy terms. By looking at how Sinn Fein performs on these areas, we can make a better informed judgement as to whether Sinn Fein is likely to move centre stage.
Consociationalism and its critics: Evidence from the historic Northern Ireland Assembly election 2007
Critics of consociational power-sharing institutional arrangements in deeply divided societies argue that such arrangements solidify the underlying conflict cleavage and render it all-important for party competition and voter behaviour. I find evidence to the contrary in the case of voter behaviour at the historic 2007 Assembly election in Northern Ireland. At least in the unionist bloc, I find the effective disappearance of the ethno-national conflict cleavage as a determinant of voter choice. This suggests that consociational arrangements have led to both inclusion and moderation, rather than polarisation and ‘ethnic outbidding’.