Reducing the blunders in forecasting
Abstract Forecasting is going through a crisis, partly attributable to its failure to anticipate so many developments (including the present recession). Specific problems that need tackling by the research community include the tendency to exclude the less quantifiable factors; the difficulties of identifying, relating and foreseeing explanatory variables; assessing degrees of uncertainty; and making the best use of consultants. Prospective analysis, in which forecasts are generated in the light of scenarios, can assist those concerned with actions and the future.
Applying scenario technology analysis for new product dynamic strategic planning
This article intends to discuss the possibility of how to quickly improve the function of adaptive prediction direction for scenario analysis (SA) in technology-intensive industries. Therefore, this study is based on SA theory that combines the technology life cycle (TLC) viewpoint with the goal-oriented properties of path analysis model (PAM) to build an adapted SA for the purpose of dynamic technology forecasting. Using the goal-oriented properties of PAM, the adapted SA can quickly evaluate changes in the technical development of a market's dynamic schedule and can identify the gap between expectations and reality. This study proposes an adapted SA that allows the generation of both qualitative and quantitative scenarios that can be used as a helpful planning tool for dynamic assessment.
The chemical industry: Its present development and future potential
Abstract An analysis of the major overall trends that are affecting the chemical industry's general structure is presented as the background to an assessment of its future operations and market potential. It is thought that the growth of the industry will continue at near historic rates, that it will continue to be concentrated in the developed countries, that large companies will become increasingly important and that the industry's international character will become more pronounced.