Deflation and the Fisher equation
So, according to Irving Fisher, one reason to worry about deflation is that the federal funds rate is expected to be held near zero as the economy grows out of this recession.
Suspicious Estimates of Ex Ante Real Interest Rates: Evidence of Macroeconomic Malpractice?
The ex ante real rate of interest is an important concept in economics and finance. These disciplines treat Irving Fischer’s theory of interest as canonical; it is used universally. In the world as we know it, the Fisher theory requires positive ex ante real interest rates. Consequently, empirical estimates of the ex ante real interest rate derived from the Fisher theory of interest should also be positive. Virtually all estimates of the ex ante real interest rate published in economic journals and/or used in macroeconomic models and policy discussions for the past 35 years, however, contain negative values for extended time periods. These negative ex ante real interest rate estimates would thus seem to be theoretically flawed. Moreover, it was shown more than 30 years ago that the procedures generally used to estimate ex ante real interest rates produce biased estimates. We document this problem, explore why it exists, and assess alternative approaches for estimating the ex ante real interest rate.
Trade, exchange rate, and agricultural pricing policies in Thailand
Thailand is still largely an agricultural country. In 1984, agricultural work was still the main source of earnings for more than 70 percent of the population. For much of the 25 year period covered by this report, government intervention in the prices of rice, maize, and natural rubber was extensive. For these products, intervention took the form of explicit export taxes and restrictive quotas. Sugar, on the other hand, was imported until 1960. For many years prior to that, government policy was to encourage growers and thus achieve self-sufficiency. One conclusion of this study is that the Thai sugar industry would have shrunk dramatically if the government had refrained from intervention. Intervention in the prices of rice and natural rubber had the effect of penalizing farm producers by reducing their output prices. There was, as a consequence a shift of resources towards Thailand's small industrial sector. In 1981, the Thai government lifted its quota restrictions, and liberalized its trade by eliminating its intervention in the maize, rice, sugar and natural rubber markets. Unfortunately for export growers, however, the gradual elimination of intervention was overshadowed by sharp declines in the world prices of Thailand's major agricultural exports.