Does uncertainty about oil prices slow down the economy
It's not the latest jump in oil prices that takes a toll on the economy but the uncertainty over what will happen in the future. But getting a handle on such uncertainty is a difficult task.
Reviewing the Oil Price - GDP Growth Relationship: A Replication Study
This paper presents a thorough replication of Hamilton (2003) which in turn replicates and extends the findings of four seminal papers regarding the oil price–GDP growth relationship. Firstly, we replicate the empirical results obtained with the oil price measures of Hamilton (1983), Mork (1989), Lee et al. (1995), Hamilton (1996), and Hamilton (2003) by using an identical data set of real and nominal oil prices. Secondly, we extend the data sets to 2019Q4 and apply the same methodology. We find that for more recent data the explanatory power of the proposed oil price measures on GDP growth rates is still present, albeit on a slightly weaker magnitude. Extending the ARX(4), we only find little evidence that oil price decreases impact GDP growth rates on the full data set. Parameter stability tests suggest that the impact of oil price decreases might be limited to certain periods.
Convergence Anatomization of Aquaculture Production in Leading Fish-Producing Countries During the Period of 1997-2013
Growth and national importance of aquaculture production is empirically assessed as an important indicator of development. The present article aims to test whether the major aquaculture producing countries of the world are converging over time. The authors have applied the absolute and conditional beta convergence and sigma convergence approaches on the data of FAO for the period 1997-2013. The results show that there is an absolute beta convergence and sigma convergence among 25 major aquaculture producing countries; negative sign of coefficient of conditional beta convergence with per capita income is also noticed. It implies, the growth rates of aquaculture for developed nations are declining with rise in per capita income and backward fish-intensive countries are catching up with the giant producers like China and India. The cross-country variations are also going down which means that the countries' development gaps are getting narrowed by means of growth of aquaculture resources.