Estrutura de comércio inter-regional no Brasil: uma análise espacial de insumo-produto para o período 1996 e 2002
The main aim of this paper is identify and calculate the evolution of inter-regional interdependence among the Brazilian states based on an interregional input-output matrix. The matrices were constructed for 1996 and 2002 and were elaborated by FIPE/USP. In the present paper, we will focus on the natures and the spatial structure of interdependence among the Brazilian sates. Thus, this paper wants to analyze the interactions in a wide perspective. To do this the analysis will be divided into two steps. The firs one will be based on the extraction method (see Dietzenbacher et al., 1993 and Perobelli et al., 2006) that enable us to identify the structure of interactions among the Brazilian states. The method will give us which is the forward dependence (output destiny) and backward dependence (source of sales). The second step will be based on the idea of model explicitly distance in the input-output model that is very important to analyze trade and do not is considered in the input-output approach. In order to implement the second step we will incorporate space into the extraction method results. This will be implemented through the global and local indicators of spatial association. Thus, in this step we will verify how important are distance for the interregional and intraregional interactions. Key-words: Inter-regional trade; input-output analysis; spatial analysis JEL Classification: R15; R12; C67 AREA DA ANPEC: 09 – ECONOMIA REGIONAL E URBANA 1 Professor Mestrado em Economia Aplicada FEA/UFJF – Bolsista CNPq e FAPEMIG 2 Professor Departamento de Economia USP – Bolsista CNPq e FAPESP 3 Assistente de Pesquisa – FEA/UFJF – Bolsista FAPEMIG 4 Assistente de Pesquisa – FEA/UFJF – Bolsista CNPq. 1 Estrutura de comercio inter-regional no Brasil: uma analise espacial de insumoproduto para o periodo 1996 e 2002
Análise da relação entre os níveis de renda e renda per capita estaduais e o comércio por vias internas no Brasil: uma abordagem com dados em painel para os anos de 1998, 1999 e 2008
The paper aims to analyze the interregional trade of the Brazilian regions, by observing the inherent relations of the region and the relations with other regions. It is intended to also check how trade flows are related to GDP and GDP per capita. The methodology consists in estimating the non-spatial panel data models that relate to the variables. Interregional trade flows were obtained from Vasconcelos (2001), Vasconcelos and Oliveira (2006) and Guilhoto et al (2010). The results show the high degree of commercial dependence on other regions in relation to the South-East region (in particular the State of Sao Paulo). There is a great concentration of trade flows in the central-south part of the country and, in general, interstate flows are of greater relative importance for the less developed states of the country. There is a positive relationship between interregional trade and GDP. However, at the aggregate level, a negative relation with GDP per capita is observed.
Complexity, Network-Decisions And Alternative Risk Premia: Some New Theories Of Structural Change And Portfolio Decisions.
Structural Change is the basis for many decisions such as government fiscal and monetary policies, government interventions, corporate-expenditure decisions, corporate strategic decisions, portfolio management decisions in finance; household allocation decisions, etc.. Structural change in industries and national economies is increasingly more difficult to detect partly because of the growth and dominance of Complex Systems and “Networks” in modern industries and economies – such Networks and Complex Systems include GVCs (global value chains), retail store networks; franchising networks; internet networks; services networks; credit-chains in industries; online social networks; etc.. The relationship between Complexity and Structural Change is well established in the physics, applied math and economic dynamics literatures. Traditional definitions and modeling of structural change have erroneously focused on changes in labor, technological progress, market share, and or capital – which are grossly inadequate in the new economy and post- global financial crisis (as confirmed by changes in the global retailing and housing industries and other industries). Also the modeling of structural change seems to be constrained by the availability of data, and often omits the relationship between structural change on one hand, and globalization, financial stability and international financial contagion. This article: i) introduces the Operations Strategy Model of structural change, explains how it differs from the Lewis Model of Structural Change; and explains the often omitted relationship between operations strategy (of companies and government agencies) and structural change; ii) introduces other new Complexity-based models/theories of Structural Change in industries; iii) reviews the relationships among Operations Research, Complexity and Structural Change; iv) explains the symbiotic relationship between structural change on one hand, and economic growth, financial stability, financial contagion and globalization; v) discusses the significant gap between academic research and practice and explains some issues and factors that should be considered in the development and testing of structural change models; vi) explains how alternative risk premia can be generated from new models of Structural Change.