The Role of Capital Formation in Economic Disparities Among Canadian Regions: 1961-1990
Economie theory has long considered the notion of capital formation and investment as central to the analysis of capitalist economies (Marx, 1967; Kalecki, 1971; Keynes, 1936). But it was only recently that the dramatie regional changes in several countries have shown the importance of the sectoral and spatial distribution of investment in the creation of regional disparities. The conflicting theories of regional growth and development are based on opposing views of the investment process and the regional dynamies underlying its spatial distribution. Most of these paradigms, however, agree that regional capital accumulation constitutes a major component of the creation of jobs and economie growth in those regions (Romer, 1990; McHugh and Widdows, 1984; Kaldor, 1970). The equilibrium-based neoc1assieal theory of regional growth asserts that if the initial phase of industrialization is associated with concentration of population and economie activity in 'central' or 'core' regions, mature growth is associated with dispersion into other areas of the economy as entre­ preneurs re-deploy their capital to these locations. It argues that decreasing returns to scale might lower the marginal productivity of capital and, therefore, induce the redeployment of capital whieh lowers the rate of investment in areas aiready characterized by high capital-labour ratios (Borts and Stein (1964), Casetti (1981)). More recently, Barro and Sala-i-Martin
A CATASTROPHE MODEL OF REGIONAL DYNAMICS
Shifts of population and jobs out of the snow belt and into the sun belt are currently in progress in the United States. Many aspects of these shifts constitute a reversal of long-run trends conventionally explained in terms of “growth inertia’ concepts, such as the ones incorporated in cumulative causation and growth pole theories. The model discussed in this paper focuses upon the switch of regional economies from growth to deeline, or vice-versa, that are exemplified by these shifts. Catastrophe theory concepts and formalisms account for sudden transitions between growth and decline produced by smooth transitions of systemic variables past critical thresholds.
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