Weather Derivative Pricing and the Year-Ahead Forecasting of Surface Air Temperature: An Empirical Evaluation of Damped Linear Detrending
The pricing of temperature derivatives is often based on statistical methods that predict the surface air temperature a year in advance. We perform an empirical comparison of three simple methods for such year-ahead temperature forecasting and draw clear conclusions about their relative merits. The three methods we consider are the standard flat-line and best-fit linear detrending methods and the recently introduced damped linear detrending method.
Weather Derivative Pricing and the Detrending of Meteorological Data: Three Alternative Representations of Damped Linear Detrending
It is often desirable to remove the trends from historical meteorological data prior to using that data for the pricing of weather derivatives. In previous articles we have introduced the method of damped linear detrending and argued that it is an effective way to remove trends when the trends are approximately linear. In this article we show that damped linear detrending can be interpreted in three different ways: as a mixture of the linear and flat-line models, as a linear model with the trend slope reduced, and as a linear model with reverse extrapolation.
Multilayer high density flex technology
The industrial trend of shrinking microelectronic devices while increasing the density of interconnections places great demands on the substrates upon which these devices are packaged. Multilayer flex circuits will provide the interconnection densities needed to meet these demands in a wide range of packaging and interconnection technologies. This paper discusses the development of ultra-high density flexible circuits. Processes and materials to fabricate fine line pitches from 12.5 /spl mu/m to 40 /spl mu/m are examined. Various microvia structures, through hole and blind via, are demonstrated. A test vehicle was designed and built for BGA packages to illustrate the density capability. A four-layer structure is demonstrated by using Z-connection to connect two layer pairs. Electrical, mechanical, and reliability test results are presented to show the selection of flex substrate material, Z-connection methodology and fabrication processes. A cost comparison of high-density flex to alternative substrates is discussed to identify potential.