Application of spatiotemporal pattern recognition techniques on predicting extratropical transition (and reintensification) of tropical cyclones
Traditional spatial decompositions such as application of Empirical Orthogonal Functions and Principal Components Analysis (PCA) of meteorological field data have received wide attention in numerous forecasting and analysis applications. The method has been used to identify the important spatial patterns in meteorological fields. Defining the variability between various cases of tropical cyclones is another application of the method. We are utilizing spatial and temporal data as a tool to differentiate the TCs that complete and fail to complete extratropical transition in the western North Pacific. It has been shown that EOF Analysis is a promising tool in the prediction of reintensification of TCs after ET
Forecasting Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclone Intensification via Projection Pursuit
As Tropical Cyclones (TC’s) move poleward out of the tropics toward the midlatitudes, they move into a region of colder temperatures and associated higher wind shear. The interaction between the TC and an increasingly baroclinic regime is referred to as Extratropical Transition (ET). As the TC moves into the increasing baroclinic environment, it weakens, as measured by a rising central sea-level pressure. If it interacts favorably with midlatitude upper-level trough then it can reintensify as an extratropical cyclone or it eventually dissipates. Because ET is a highly variable process, the end result of this transition, either dissipation or intensification, is very hard to predict even with full physics capable systems (Jones et al. (2003)). Recent research by Ritchie and Elsberry (2005) has indicated that the outcome of the transition depends on the midlatitude pattern that the TC moves in, and the phasing between the TC and midlatitude upper-level troughs embedded within the large-scale midlatitude circulation. Figures 1 and 2 show Typhoon (TY) Peter (1997) and Supertyphoon (STY) Ivan (1997) with two different outcomes, intensification and dissipation, respectively. The analysis fields are from the U.S. Navy’s Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS).
Biodiversity, conservation, and sustainable development
This important book highlights the conflicts between economic growth and the conservation of nature in the context of sustainable development. It places particular emphasis on biological diversity and examines possible policies for resolving conflicts which arise from the contrasting goals of conserving the natural environment and economic growth.