Weather Derivative Pricing and the Year-Ahead Forecasting of Surface Air Temperature: An Empirical Evaluation of Damped Linear Detrending
The pricing of temperature derivatives is often based on statistical methods that predict the surface air temperature a year in advance. We perform an empirical comparison of three simple methods for such year-ahead temperature forecasting and draw clear conclusions about their relative merits. The three methods we consider are the standard flat-line and best-fit linear detrending methods and the recently introduced damped linear detrending method.
Weather Derivative Pricing and the Year Ahead Forecasting of Temperature Part 1: Empirical Results
We consider the question of how many years of data and what trends to use to make the year ahead temperature forecasts that are needed in weather derivative pricing. We address this question with a backtesting study using 50 years of historical temperature data for 200 US locations.
Palm oil shell aggregate for lightweight concrete
Publisher Summary Increased agricultural production and the development of agro-based industries in many countries of the world have brought about the production of large quantities of agricultural wastes, most of which are not adequately managed and utilized. Low-cost building materials can be produced using inexpensive indigenous raw materials. Agricultural wastes that are renewable and are found in abundance in many countries present an interesting alternative to the traditional and sometimes imported building materials, particularly for low-cost construction. The use of agricultural wastes as aggregates in lightweight concrete can provides an alternative to conventional methods for the production of lightweight concrete. Lightweight concrete results in a reduction in the overall deadweight of a structure and provides a significant saving in the overall cost of construction. The use of less expensive alternative lightweight aggregates in the production of the concrete can provide further reductions in expense. The material properties and structural performance of lightweight concrete with palm oil shells as aggregates are similar to lightweight concrete produced using the more common lightweight aggregates such as clinker, foamed slag, and expanded clay. The palm oil shells are hard and are received as crushed pieces because of the process used to release the oil. Manual sieving is necessary to remove the large amount of fine particles. The shells are then air-dried before use. Because the palm oil shells are lighter than the cement matrix, the shells tend to segregate in wet concrete mixes. On the other hand, dry mixes using palm oil shells are relatively more difficult to work with when compared to ordinary concrete. Trial mixes are necessary to achieve a good mix design.