Long-Term Nuclear Industry Outlook - 2004
The nuclear industry has become increasingly efficient and global in nature, but may now be poised at a crossroads between graceful decline and profound growth as a viable provider of electrical energy. Predicted population and energy-demand growth, an increased interest in global climate change, the desire to reduce the international dependence on oil as an energy source, the potential for hydrogen co-generation using nuclear power reactors, and the improved performance in the nuclear power industry have raised the prospect of a “nuclear renaissance” in which nuclear power would play an increasingly more important role in both domestic and international energy market. This report provides an assessment of the role nuclear-generated power will plan in the global energy future and explores the impact of that role on export controls.
Economic Globalization and a Nuclear Renaissance
The phenomenon of globalization has become increasingly well recognized, documented, and analyzed in the last several years. Globalization, the integration of markets and intra-firm competition on a worldwide basis, involves complex behavioral and mindset changes within a firm that facilitate global competition. The changes revolve around efficient information flow and rapid deployment of technology. The objective of this report is to examine the probable characteristics of a global nuclear renaissance and its broad implications for industry structure and export control relative to nuclear technology. The question of how a modern renaissance would affect the trend toward globalization of the nuclear industry is addressed.
NUCLEAR RENAISSANCE? THINK GLOBALLY, ACT LOCALLY
There is wide-scale belief in the nuclear industry that we are on the verge of a revival of nuclear power because of the projected large increase in the demand for non-carbon emitting electrical generating capacity. Energy consumption will at least double over the next 50 years as a result of population increase and the very real need to improve the standard of living particularly in developing countries. Growing acceptance of the need to reduce carbon emissions is positioning nuclear energy as a likely candidate to meet this increased demand provided valid concerns about economics, safety, proliferation and waste can be adequately resolved. While economics, safety, and proliferation resistance all can benefit from incremental improvement, a permanent waste disposal solution either exists or it doesn’t. If a country cannot identify where it will dispose of its spent fuel or high- level nuclear waste, its further use of nuclear energy can be blocked. A number of countries today have generated significant quantities of spent fuel or high- level waste without firm plans or suitable geology for disposal of this material. Arms reduction and weapons material disposition agreements between the United States and Russia will eventually require those countries to permanently dispose of immobilized plutonium and mixed oxide fuel produced with excess weapons plutonium. This disposal will occur in geologic repositories with bilateral and international safeguards and, presumably, safety requirements. Both of these countries have large, stable, deep geologic formations. Both are also the countries of origin of the largest amount of nuclear fuel used around the world. With regard to Russia, accepting waste or spent fuel from other countries would provide a necessary source of outside capital to finance their disposal program. It also would allow nuclear power to be a viable option for future electricity production in participating counties and reduce proliferation concerns from this fuel. Once demonstrated as a safe and economical solution, other countries with suitable geology, stable governments and solid nonproliferation credentials could follow suit and provide international disposal capability. To implement this solution on a global level, we must show leadership locally by providing disposal capability in the United States. A decision on the acceptability of Yucca Mountain is needed now. Unless the United States demonstrates leadership in disposing of nuclear material required through agreement with the Russians or contracts with utilities, there will be widespread negative consequences on the viability of nuclear energy to meet national and global electric demands. In short, there will be no nuclear renaissance.