Projecting the regional economic impacts of energy development
Changes in Federal energy policy create incidental economic impacts that affect output, income, employment, and other macro-economic variables which are largely ignored. A methodology for analyzing incidental multi-regional impacts uses the National Regional Impact Evaluation System (NRIES), which integrates 51 state econometric models into a national five-to-ten year framework to determine the implications of expanded coal use. The NRIES model simulates two advanced production scenarios at a single state (Montana) and a multiregional/national level. The effects of policy change appear as political and economic disruptions that cannot be contained within a single region. 14 references, 2 figures, 7 tables. (DCK)
Production and high energy prices: A case of some Pan-Pacific countries☆
Abstract To explore the relationship between price of energy, energy consumption, and output, this paper suggests a simultaneous equation system. Using time-series data for five Pan-Pacific countries — Canada, Japan, Korea, the Philippines and the USA and applying the two-stage least squares method, the above system of equations is estimated for each of the five countries. Short-run GDP elasticity with respect to energy is nearly the same (0.3) for all four industrialized countries. Short-run price elasticity of energy demand is between -0.20 and -0.08 for the four industrialized economies and -0.37 for the Philippines.
Econometric model-building at regional level
Abstract The increasing importance of macroeconometric models in regional economic analysis is discussed. Conceptual and estimation problems are outlined and a prototype regional model is summarized. After a short history of such models, the specification of typical models and their testing is presented and the structure of an estimated model for Philadelphia is given. Applications of regional econometric models to forecasting, impact analysis and policy study are presented. The prospects for regional model building are contained in the final part of the paper.