Employment Dynamics in Regional Labour Markets: An Application of Gross Flows Analysis
This paper uses gross flows data for regions to show how the chance of leaving employment varies from place to place within New Zealand and how this risk of leaving employment influences subsequent search behaviour. We define labour market risk as the failure to sustain a continuous income stream through employment. Estimates of employment risk are made by applying a linear logit model to selected transition probabilities estimated from a quarter to quarter gross flows matrix constructed from New Zealand Household Labour Force Survey returns for the 14 year period 1986to 1999. We show how the risk of employment separations increase as the size of regional labour markers declines and their demand for labour weakens and how the diminished opportunities for employment in the peripheral regions encourages active rather than passive searching among those who leave employment. In regions with relatively high labour demand leaving employment is more likely to be followed by withdrawal from the labour force. By contrast, labour leaving employment in the weaker, provincial, labour markets is more likely to be followed by active searching (and hence unemployment). The way in which employment risk modifies search behaviour across the country affects the unemployed rate, raising it in weak markets and lowering overstating it in strong markers both temporally and geographically.
Education and Training in the Labour Force
In their 1997 green paper on tertiary education the Ministry of Education said, "to ensure our prosperity New Zealand needs to be a 'learning society' recognising the importance for all of our people to continue to develop new skills and knowledge throughout a person’s lifetime." Given the importance of an educated and adaptable workforce, there is surprisingly little information available on education and training undertaken in New Zealand. While some information is collected on those enrolled in study towards formal education qualifications, there is little available information on human capital development beyond this. One of the few sources of information is the Education and Training Survey (ETS), conducted in September 1996. This paper uses information collected in the ETS to look at the characteristics of those participating in education and training as well as the barriers to and reasons for participation in education and training. lt then goes on to compare the labour market outcomes of those people who participated in education and training with those who did not.
Complexity, Network-Decisions And Alternative Risk Premia: Some New Theories Of Structural Change And Portfolio Decisions.
Structural Change is the basis for many decisions such as government fiscal and monetary policies, government interventions, corporate-expenditure decisions, corporate strategic decisions, portfolio management decisions in finance; household allocation decisions, etc.. Structural change in industries and national economies is increasingly more difficult to detect partly because of the growth and dominance of Complex Systems and “Networks” in modern industries and economies – such Networks and Complex Systems include GVCs (global value chains), retail store networks; franchising networks; internet networks; services networks; credit-chains in industries; online social networks; etc.. The relationship between Complexity and Structural Change is well established in the physics, applied math and economic dynamics literatures. Traditional definitions and modeling of structural change have erroneously focused on changes in labor, technological progress, market share, and or capital – which are grossly inadequate in the new economy and post- global financial crisis (as confirmed by changes in the global retailing and housing industries and other industries). Also the modeling of structural change seems to be constrained by the availability of data, and often omits the relationship between structural change on one hand, and globalization, financial stability and international financial contagion. This article: i) introduces the Operations Strategy Model of structural change, explains how it differs from the Lewis Model of Structural Change; and explains the often omitted relationship between operations strategy (of companies and government agencies) and structural change; ii) introduces other new Complexity-based models/theories of Structural Change in industries; iii) reviews the relationships among Operations Research, Complexity and Structural Change; iv) explains the symbiotic relationship between structural change on one hand, and economic growth, financial stability, financial contagion and globalization; v) discusses the significant gap between academic research and practice and explains some issues and factors that should be considered in the development and testing of structural change models; vi) explains how alternative risk premia can be generated from new models of Structural Change.