AVIAN BOTULISM—ANOTHER PERSPECTIVE
Waterfowl botulism is unique among intoxications because toxin produced within its victims leads to secondary poisoning of other birds. Because of this phenomenon, the epizootiology of the carcass-maggot cycle of botulism resembles that of an infectious disease and the reproductive rate (R) of the disease could be defined as the average number of secondary intoxications attributable to a single carcass introduced into a marsh. I propose that toxin production and botulism occur commonly at a low level in many marshes and that factors which influence R determine when the disease expands into a large epizootic. A model that incorporates the number of carcasses occurring in a marsh, the probability of a carcass containing spores, the probability of a carcass persisting until toxin-bearing maggots emerge, and the contact rate between live birds and toxin, may be useful for predicting the extent of secondary-poisoning, for identifying questions for research, and as a theoretical basis for management.
INTERNAL TEMPERATURE OF DECOMPOSING DUCK CARCASSES IN RELATION TO BOTULISM
Under spring conditions (mean daily maximum 22 C, mean daily minimum 9 C), the temperature within duck carcasses paralleled air temperature for 3 days; on days 4 and 5 the internal temperature rose above 30 C for approximately 30 hr and maximum temperatures of 40–47 C occurred. This coincided with the period of maximum blowfly maggot activity in the carcasses. Carcasses screened from blowflies did not experience this period of high internal temperature. Under autumn conditions (mean daily maximum 13 C, mean daily minimum 1 C), the internal temperature of carcasses paralleled air temperature for approximately 2 wk. Following a warm day (23.5 C), maggots appeared in the carcasses and the internal temperature rose markedly higher than air temperature. Maggots moved into the soil on cold nights and reinhabited the carcasses during the day. The microclimate within maggot-infested carcasses appeared very suitable for growth and toxin production by Clostridium botulinum and this phenomenon may help explain the occurrence of botulism outbreaks during cool weather.
An Internet-based Real-time Heavy Rainfall Display System
A new storm warning system, which can be accessed through the Internet and by cellular phones is described. At the time of a heavy rainfall for disaster prevention, it is important that every resident understand how heavy is that rainfall. A real-time heavy rainfall display system designed for all of Japan provides such information (http://www.disaster-i.net/rain/). In that system values for 1-hour precipitation, 24-hour accumulated precipitation, etc. are displayed at every observatory. Advantages are that not only the latest observations but differences from the historical highest records can be seen. Almost all information is displayed by characters so that users have easy access to the system even when the communication network is crowded. Access date for the six months after the system opened shows that the average daily number of accesses of the top page was 306, and the largest number 3078. The maximum number for daily access to all the pages was about 21,500. This is about 2% of the number obtained on the same day for a similar system operated by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (http://www.river.go.jp/).