Draft Federal Budget for 2011 Takes First Steps Towards Consolidation
With the trough of the recession following the global financial market crisis having been passed, fiscal policy is faced with the need to return to a sustainable path. The federal government targets a reduction of the general government deficit (in the Maastricht definition) below the ceiling of 3 percent of GDP as from 2012; subsequently, the deficit is to be lowered stepwise to 2.2 percent of GDP by 2014, with the public debt ratio levelling off at around 72 percent of GDP. Underlying the consolidation path for the period from 2011 to 2014 is a government programme that assigns, from an overall federal perspective, slightly more than half of deficit reduction to expenditure restraint, and somewhat less than half to higher taxes. For the federal budget, the expected savings cumulate to € 8.1 billion, while additional revenues amount to some € 6 billion.
Between Consolidation and Growth: Federal Financial Framework 2013-2016, "Consolidation Package II" and Stability Programme
The government debt ratio in Austria will rise above 74 percent of GDP in 2012. The quantifiable costs of the financial market crisis and the global recession account for nearly 7¾ percentage points of this ratio, further discretionary measures and statistical revisions for the last few years add nearly 6 percentage points. The "consolidation package" adopted in spring 2012 is to ensure a balanced general government budget (according to the Maastricht definition) by 2016. In addition, it is intended to reduce the structural deficit to 0.4 percent of GDP and the debt ratio to 70.6 percent of GDP.
The Effects of Downturns on Labour Force Participation: Evidence and Causes
This paper uses an impulse-response function approach to assess the magnitude and persistence of the effects of downturns on labour force participation for a sample of 30 countries over the period 1960-2008. Past severe recessions appear to have had a significant and persistent impact on participation, while moderate downturns did not. The aggregate participation rate effect of severe downturns peaked on average at about 1½ to 2½ percentage points five to eight years after the cyclical peak, and was still significant after almost a decade. Youths and older workers account for the bulk of this effect. Institutional and policy settings are found to be an important factor having shaped the response of participation to economic downturns. In particular, early retirement incentives embedded in old-age pension schemes and other social transfer programmes are found to amplify the responsiveness of older workers’ participation to economic conditions. However, the findings in this paper do not seem to apply to the most recent crisis, partly because the labour market situation did not deteriorate as much as the magnitude of the recession would have suggested in a number of OECD countries. Les effets des retournements de conjoncture sur la participation au marche du travail : Evidence et causes Cet article utilise une approche impulsion-reponse pour evaluer l’ampleur et la persistance des effets des retournements de conjoncture sur la participation au marche du travail pour un echantillon de 30 pays de l’OCDE sur la periode 1960-2008. Il apparait que les recessions severes ont eu un impact significatif et persistant sur la participation dans le passe, au contraire des retournements de cycle plus moderes. L’effet agrege des recessions severes sur la participation a atteint un pic de 1½ a 2½ points de pourcentage cinq a huit ans apres le point haut du cycle, et etait toujours significatif apres presque une decennie. Les jeunes et les seniors ont contribue a l’essentiel de cet effet. Les facteurs politiques et institutionnels jouent un role important dans la reponse de la participation aux retournements conjoncturels. En particulier, il apparait que les incitations au depart anticipe a la retraite contenues dans les regimes de retraite et les autres systemes de transferts sociaux accroissent la sensibilite de la participation des seniors aux conditions economiques. Pour autant, les resultats de cet article ne semblent pas s’appliquer a la crise recente, en partie parce que la situation du marche du travail ne s’est pas deterioree autant que l’ampleur de la recession aurait pu le suggerer dans un certain nombre de pays de l’OCDE.