Further Results from the 1978 Fuel Economy Survey
Further analyses of the 1978 in-use fuel economy survey are presented. Effects of usage on 1978 model year cars are determined. The in-use fuel economies are then adjusted to standardize for usage. The adjusted fuel economies have lower variability and yield better relationships with metro-highway fuel economy ratings.
FUEL ECONOMY RATINGS VS. ROAD EXPERIENCE--AN ANALYSIS OF FORD'S 1982 LEASE FLEET
Beginning with the 1978 Model Year, Ford Motor Company (Ford) has been collecting and analyzing on-road fuel economy data for Ford vehicles leased by Company employes. The data base for 1978-1982 models includes 46,634 data points. Data for 1982 models (10,776 data points) indicate that on-road fuel economy was 3% better than for 1981 models and 41% above 1978 levels. Further, a comparison of 1982 on-road results to EPA-approved mpg values indicates that the percent difference is comparable to those reported for the 1979-1981 model year surveys. The previously reported seasonal difference (i.e., summer on-road mpg results are approximately 2 mpg higher than winter results) was substantiated by 1982 model data. Data for different driving patterns (i.e., urban vs. highway driving and different values for miles driven per day) also were analyzed to estimate the effect of "percent urban" driving and "miles per day" on in-use mpg results.
Projections of Motor Vehicle Fuel Demand and Emissions
Methodologies were developed and applied to project (1) motor vehicle fuel demand, (2) air quality improvements through emission reductions, and (3) the effect of stringent vehicle emission controls on energy consumption. Motor gasoline demand for both the U.S. and Canada is projected to peak about 1980 at about 2% above the current level, followed by a gradual decrease through 1990. However, total U.S. motor fuel use will increase through 1990 due to increasing diesel fuel demand. Ozone air quality projected form HC and NO sub x emissions shows more improvement resulting from control of other sources than from further tightening of vehicle emission standards. Vehicle emisson standards significantly more stringent than the 1975 Canadian level increase energy consumption by as much as 20% at the 1981 U.S. level. Maintenance of the current emission standards in the U.S. could allow sufficient future improvements in gasoline consumption to cause total motor fuel use to decrease after 1982.