The United States, Iran and the Middle East's New “Cold War”
The relationship between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran both shapes and is shaped by a new Middle Eastern “Cold War”. The United States and the Islamic Republic should transcend the prospects for hegemonial conflict or strategic standoff and seek a fundamental realignment of their relations, along the lines of the realignment in relations between the United States and the People's Republic of China that took place during President Richard Nixon's tenure in the White House. The article examines the imperatives for a comprehensive and strategic realignment of US–Iranian relations from the standpoint of Iranian interests and foreign policy concepts as well as from an American perspective. It also evaluates the actual prospects for US–Iranian rapprochement.
China’s “Belt and Road” Economic Diplomacy in the Persian Gulf: Strategic Hedging amidst Saudi–Iranian Regional Rivalry
Drawing on the literature on strategic hedging and adapting it to China’s use of economic diplomacy in the service of comprehensive national security goals within the regionalised foreign policy approach of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), we examine China’s approach to securing and expanding its interests in the Persian Gulf. To implement the trade and infrastructure connectivity goals of the BRI and to secure the continued flow of diversified energy supplies, China needs to boost relations with both regional powerhouses, Iran and Saudi Arabia, without alienating either of them or the regional hegemon, the United States. The resulting strategy of strategic hedging is based in the Chinese approach to economic diplomacy, which utilises Chinese commercial actors in the service of national strategic objectives. Relations require careful and ongoing management if China is to achieve outcomes which benefit all sides while avoiding becoming entangled in the region’s intractable geopolitical problems.
Iran's Regional Policy: Between Radicalism and Pragmatism
The Islamic Revolution of 1979 was a major turning point in the modern history of Iran, with reverberations far beyond its borders. Twenty-eight years on, the new regime is still searching for an appropriate approach to cope with the challenge of governance while it contends with domestic disenchantment, perpetual struggle for power between competing tendencies and grave regional and international challenges. (1) Since the mid-1990s, the pro-reform camp has gained popular support and sustained control of the elected bodies of government. This is evident from Mohammed Khatami's presidency (1997), the reformists' dominance of the local councils (1999) and the Majlis (2000) and Khatami's reelection (2001). However, the conservatives have maintained their control over the non-elected institutions (such as the Council of Guardians, Council of Experts, Expediency Council and numerous extra-governmental bodies, in addition to the support of Supreme Leader Ayatollah All Khamenei, who succeeded Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini), thus preserving their ability to thwart crucial political, social and economic changes. Since then, the conservatives consolidated their control of the local councils (2003) and the Majlis (2004), culminating in 2005 with the ascendancy of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who demonstrated adherence to the original revolutionary dogma more than any of the contesting candidates to the presidency. As a result, the policy of dialogue between civilizations, promoted by Khatami, was replaced by an eventual clash of civilizations; the process of reform gave way to growing conservatism, and the policy of detente--in regional and international relations--gave way to a growing tension. Iran's involvement in Iraq, in Lebanon and within the Palestinian Authority, combined with a determination to pursue its nuclear program, and the current president's incendiary statements (against the United States and Israel and regarding the Holocaust) have led Iran to stir up conflict with both its immediate neighbors and countries far from home. This brief survey seeks to examine Iran's regional policy in the framework of the revolutionary experience and the recent changes in the domestic and international arena. Some key issues, such as Iran's nuclear policy, relations with the United States and the relative power of the different domestic factions--despite their direct bearing on our discussion--will be mentioned only briefly. Other important questions, like Iran's strategic alliance with Syria, the impact of the fall of the Taliban in Afghanistan and developments in the Gulf area are similarly not discussed. The first part of this essay focuses on the general trend of pragmatism in past Iranian regional policy, while the second part is limited to an examination of some of the main areas in which Iran has been recently involved--the Palestinian Authority, Hezbollah and Iraq. IRAN AND ITS TROUBLED NEIGHBORHOOD The Islamic Revolution led to a dramatic change in Iran's foreign outlook and its international relations. For the new leaders of Iran, the Islamic Revolution was not just a title for a movement, but an ideal they wished to put into practice throughout the Muslim world. The Islamic regime viewed its victory as one stage in and an instrument of an overall change in the world of Islam--a model for imitation by other Muslims. "Our movement is for an Islamic goal, not for Iran alone," Khomeini said upon taking power. Iran was only "the starting point." Muslims "are one family," he added, "even if they live in regions remote from each other." (2) Even being Shia or Sunni "is not the question." (3) For many revolutionaries, the ultimate goal remained to launch an ideological crusade aimed at bringing the genuine messages of Islam to people everywhere. Assessments by Mohammed Javad Larijani (former Iranian deputy foreign minister) highlight the centrality of such a worldwide mission. Following the fall of the USSR, he stated that "the cresting of the Islamic movement will soon transform the face of the world" in the same manner the Renaissance changed Europe. …