Long-term projection of Myanmar economy by macro econometric model
The purpose of this chapter is to investigate the long-term growth prospects of Myanmar economy under such scenarios as intensifying investment and improving total factor productivity (TFP), to represent demand-management policies necessary to sustain its long-term economic growth, to provide strategic implications on the prerequisites to achieve an optimal growth path, and also to represent the sectoral breakdowns for GDP and labor projections. For these purpose, we construct a simple macro-econometric model as shown in Appendix 1 in detail, and conduct sectoral breakdowns by the methodology of using Thailand input-output tables.
Long-Term Growth Model in Myanmar Based on the Growth Trajectory of Vietnam
The purpose of this study is to identify major drivers of Myanmar’s long-term economic growth and draw implications to implement development policies. This study investigated Myanmar, as the country is the most recently opened economy in Southeast Asia. This study conducted simulation analysis based on scenarios by applying World Bank’s Long-Term Growth Model, Penn World Table 9.1, and World Development Indicator data. This study makes extensive use of LTGM and the LTGM-TFP extension to improve the validity of models for data calibration. This study confirms the validity of the model with data calibration and specifies scenarios for simulation analyses by setting the growth trajectory of Vietnam due to common geographical, political, and economic conditions. Main findings include that Myanmar’s economic growth rate will continue to fall below 3% in 2040 without proper improvement of growth drivers. The results of this study also provide that total factor productivity growth and female labor participation are key factors for Myanmar’s long-term economic growth. This study advises policymakers in Myanmar to strengthen human capital, which is crucial for total factor productivity growth in Myanmar’s context and directly affects economic growth. Further, labor market policies to promote female labor participation is important to sustain economic growth.
Did the metamorphosis from Export Processing Zones to Special Economic Zones improve the efficiency of trade enclaves in India?
In this paper, the efficiency of seven conventional Special Economic Zones in India is analyzed, by adopting a stochastic production frontier technique, for the period between 1986–1987 and 2007–2008.Results indicate that although the efficiency scores of these enclaves have improved over the years, specifically with the introduction of the SEZ policy (2000–2001), it is far below the threshold level as identified in the literature. Besides, one can also observe a discrepancy emerging between better export earning zones and efficient zones. On the determinants side, policy intervention and large geographical area, accompanied by clustering of units, are found to have impacted the efficiency scores of these enclaves positively.