Great Expectations: Washington, Beijing, and the North Korean Nuclear Crisis
Abstract Throughout the North Korean nuclear crisis, the Bush administration has believed that China is the most crucial player in the effort to find a solution. Washington has frequently expressed disappointment that Beijing is not willing to put more pressure on its misbehaving client. China faces a dilemma, however. Although most evidence indicates that Chinese leaders are not happy about Pyongyang's quest for nuclear weapons, keeping the Korean peninsula nonnuclear is not China's highest priority. Beijing is even more concerned about preserving North Korea as a geographic buffer between the U.S. sphere of influence in Northeast Asia and the Chinese homeland. China does have substantial economic leverage over North Korea, since it supplies a major portion of the country's food and energy supplies. The PRC is cautious, however, about using that leverage to coerce Pyongyang regarding the nuclear issue. Chinese leaders fear that putting too much pressure on Kim Jong Il's regime could cause the North Korea...
Crisis stability or general stability? Assessing Northeast Asia’s absence of war and prospects for liberal transition
Abstract Is the relatively long peace of Northeast Asia a result of crisis stability or general stability? The article introduces two stability concepts – crisis and general stability. Crisis stability occurs when both sides in military crisis are so secure due to its military capability and are able to wait out a surprise attack fully confident that it would be able to respond with a punishing counter attack. On the other hand, general stability prevails when two powers greatly prefer peace even to a victorious war whether crisis stability exists or not, simply because war has become inconceivable as a means of solving any political disagreements and conflicts. While crisis stability entails delicate balance of military power from the deterrence literature of security studies, general stability bases its logic of inquiry on constructivism where the idea of war aversion – categorically rejecting war as a means to end conflicts – becomes the prevailing norm. Therefore, this article empirically examines how Northeast Asia has sustained its peace through crisis stability and presents a new trend toward general stability.
Analysis: The Agenda 2007 Proposals: Evolution or Revolution?
On 10 February 2004 the Commission published its proposal for the financial perspective 2007-2013. A week later it adopted the third report on economic and social cohesion. These two documents form the basis of the so-called ‘Agenda 2007 reforms’. They will be the greatest challenge for the enlarged EU after the intergovernmental conference, since they will determine the financial basis for EU policy-making until the middle of the next decade. The Agenda 2007 proposals certainly hint at courageous reforms, because they place a previously unheard-of emphasis on performance and quality. Under the proposals, structural operations should generate value for money, and the funds should focus on projects which generate added value at a European level. Overall the Commission’s proposals point in the right direction, because they balance, on the one hand, solidarity for the new Member States and weak regions in the old Member States with, on the other hand, investments in future tasks. Moreover, they constitute a paradigm shift. For the first time, the Common Agricultural Policy will not be the dominant expenditure category. Now it is up to the Member States to examine the proposals politically and find a compromise between sometimes very divergent interests. It is to be hoped that, during the debate over expenditure limits and division of funds, national interests do not outweigh European interests.