The Quarterly National Accounts in real-time: an analysis of the revisions over the last decade
In this article, the revisions of the Portuguese Quarterly National Accounts over the last decade are analyzed. We assess the real-time behaviour of GDP estimates and corresponding expenditure and supply side components. In particular, we focus on the revisions up to one year after the release of the fi rst estimate as well as on the revisions resulting from the inclusion of the Annual National Accounts. In the case of GDP, the reliability of the fl ash estimate, more recently made available by INE, is also assessed. The results for GDP suggest that the revisions up to one year are not signifi cant although the revisions can be larger when the Annual National Accounts are included. The expenditure components related with external trade present the largest revisions while the supply side estimates are more fragile than those from the expenditure side.
Frontiers of Real-Time Data Analysis
This paper describes the existing research (as of February 2008) on real-time data analysis, divided into five areas: (1) data revisions; (2) forecasting; (3) monetary policy analysis; (4) macroeconomic research; and (5) current analysis of business and financial conditions. In each area, substantial progress has been made in recent years, with researchers gaining insight into the impact of data revisions. In addition, substantial progress has been made in developing better real-time data sets around the world. Still, additional research is needed in key areas, and research to date has uncovered even more fruitful areas worth exploring.
Recovering the frontier state : war, ethnicity, and state in Afghanistan
Chapter 1 Table of Contents Chapter 2 1 Introduction Chapter 3 2 Ethnicity, Political Power, and Fragmentation Chapter 4 3 Rise of the Taliban and Civil War Chapter 5 4 The United States and War on Terrorism Chapter 6 5 Restructuring the Afghan State Chapter 7 6 Political Economy of Drugs and Warlordism Chapter 8 7 Afghanistan and Neighboring States Chapter 9 8 Conclusion Chapter 10 Bibliography