Les marchés financiers sont-ils rationnels ?
Due to the recent stock market crises, many economists have been keeping aloof from the « core» of financial theory, whose main contention is that stock market prices are at any moment the best possible estimate of the « true» value of the issuing firms. Most of those economists have brought forward, in a way or another, the hypothesis that markets suddenly get crazy. This contribution, based on both observa~tion of the recent financial history (the crash of the « New Economy» securities) and results from « experimental economics», and using the complementary concepts of « mimicry» and « convention » to account for « self-referential dynamics», is opening a third way of thinking the efficiency problematic: investors fix their strategy based on the estimates of the other participants, even if they strongly believe they are wrong.
Vers une prévention macro-prudentielle des crises financières internationales
[eng] Macro-prudential prevention of international financial crises . The new international financial structure tries to modernise emergent financial markers and to reinforce prevention and management's tools of international crises. Crises' prevention isn't restricted to macroeconomic supervision if speculative attacks correspond to financial runs and vulnerability of intenational financial structure : importance of foreign short term finance, concentration of international banking creditors, conversion of high termination date, high volatility of collateral, increasing correlation of asset prices on emergent markets... So prevention macro-prudential policies become interesting to introduce incentives or rules improving systemic risk management. . JEL classification : E44, F33, G15 [fre] La nouvelle architecture financiere internationale a pour objet de moderniser l'architecture des marches financiers dans les pays emergents et de conforter les moyens de prevention et de gestion des crises a l'echelle internationale. Mais la question de la prevention des crises ne se reduit pas a la surveillance macroeconomique si les mouvements de defiance ou les attaques speculatives s'apparentent a des paniques financieres et repondent a des fragilites enchâssees dans les structures de la finance mondiale contemporaine : role cle des financements courts renouvelables en devises, forte concentration parmi les creanciers bancaires internationaux, transformations d'echeances elevees, forte volatilite des collateraux, correlations croissantes des prix d'actifs sur les marches emergents... D'ou l'interet des politiques de prevention macro-prudentielle de nature a introduire des incitations ou des regles permettant d'ameliorer le traitement dynamique du risque systemique. . Classification JEL : E44, F33, G15
EXPERIMENTAL ASSET MARKETS WITHIN FINANCE
This paper addresses the concept of market efficiency, presenting a critical review of the conventional tests in the area, which in turn provides the justification for employing an experimental methodology. The literature on experimental asset markets within finance is then reviewed and evaluated. Copyright 1995 by Blackwell Publishers Ltd