Macro-economic Effects of the Fiscal Stimulus Measures in Austria
In order to cushion the impact of the financial and economic crisis on the real economy, the Austrian government adopted fiscal stabilisation packages. Relative to GDP, these are among the largest in an international comparison, amounting to 4.2 percent of 2008 GDP in cumulative terms and including similar measures taken by the Lander (federal states). Simulations with the WIFO macro-economic model suggest that these measures, together with those taken by Austria's major trading partners, contribute substantially towards limiting the repercussions of the crisis, reducing the fall in GDP in 2010 by 2.1 percentage points. With a share of less than 30 percent of the total amount spent, investment geared towards raising potential growth in the future receives less emphasis than in a sample of 11 OECD countries with an average share of almost 40 percent.
Why Performance Differed Across Countries in the Recent Crisis. How Country Performance in the Recent Crisis Depended on Pre-crisis Conditions
The growth performance of countries proved to be very different during the recent crisis. We apply principal component analysis to derive a single ordinal indicator on growth performance and to analyse whether initial conditions of economies or structural characteristics can explain the differences in growth performance. As initial conditions at the start of the crisis we use fiscal situation, trade competitiveness, output and credit growth, as structural characteristics we test size, openness, share of sectors and per-capita income. The task has proved to be as difficult as expected as causality often works in two ways and policy variables have intervened, which themselves are dependent on the initial conditions and structural characteristics. The three indicators that end up as the best predictors for the depth of the crisis are correlated with one another and thus difficult to disentangle.
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