Reducing disaster risks 1980–2010: Some reflections and speculations
Through personal reflections on themes covering past experiences, the author considers selected experiences of disaster risk management (DRM) that span 30 years of DRM, and makes some speculations concerning the future, and ponders whether within the selected themes the future looks positive or negative. The observations begin with some memories of the Ocho Rios Conference: a multi disciplinary expedition to examine housing and hazards in Pakistan; issues concerning education and training; and finally the success of a massive reconstruction project of rural dwellings in Pakistan following the 2005 earthquake. Some key questions are considered: the value of community-based risk management; the reduction of short- or long-term risks; the protection of critical facilities; whose reality is being addressed? official neglect of education for DRM; the conditions needed to create highly effective safe reconstruction in rural Pakistan.
Tsunami early warning system (EWS) and its integration within the chain of seismic safety
Purpose – This paper aims to provide a broad overview of the South Asian tsunami in relation to the development of the early warning system (EWS) as well as its integration within the seismic safety chain.Design/methodology/approach – The paper focuses on social and administrative aspects that require detailed attention as key elements within the overall system. The observations grow from experience gained by Ian Davis from working on the UK IDNDR Flagship project Warnings and Forecasts from 1996‐9 and from participation in the Working Group advising Prime Minister, Tony Blair, on the development of warnings in preparation for the G8 meeting held in Scotland in June 2005.Findings – The conclusions of the paper grow from variety of experiences that both the authors have gained in working for many years in the field of disaster management. A number of requirements emerge from the experience such as specific administrative measures, political will, scientific knowledge and the development of tsunami safety c...
Speci fi cation Test for Panel Data Models with Interactive Fixed E ff ects ∗
In this paper, we propose a consistent nonparametric test for linearity in a large dimensional panel data model with interactive fixed effects. Both lagged dependent variables and conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form are allowed in the model. We estimate the model under the null hypothesis of linearity to obtain the restricted residuals which are then used to construct the test statistic. We show that after being appropriately centered and standardized, the test statistic is asymptotically normally distributed under both the null hypothesis and a sequence of Pitman local alternatives by using the concept of conditional strong mixing that was recently introduced by Prakasa Rao (2009). To improve the finite sample performance, we propose a bootstrap procedure to obtain the bootstrap -value. A small set of Monte Carlo simulations illustrates that our test performs well in finite samples. An application to an economic growth panel dataset indicates significant nonlinear relationships between economic growth, initial income level and capital accumulation.