Employment Dynamics in Regional Labour Markets: An Application of Gross Flows Analysis
This paper uses gross flows data for regions to show how the chance of leaving employment varies from place to place within New Zealand and how this risk of leaving employment influences subsequent search behaviour. We define labour market risk as the failure to sustain a continuous income stream through employment. Estimates of employment risk are made by applying a linear logit model to selected transition probabilities estimated from a quarter to quarter gross flows matrix constructed from New Zealand Household Labour Force Survey returns for the 14 year period 1986to 1999. We show how the risk of employment separations increase as the size of regional labour markers declines and their demand for labour weakens and how the diminished opportunities for employment in the peripheral regions encourages active rather than passive searching among those who leave employment. In regions with relatively high labour demand leaving employment is more likely to be followed by withdrawal from the labour force. By contrast, labour leaving employment in the weaker, provincial, labour markets is more likely to be followed by active searching (and hence unemployment). The way in which employment risk modifies search behaviour across the country affects the unemployed rate, raising it in weak markets and lowering overstating it in strong markers both temporally and geographically.
Houshold-Based Labour Force Transitions: A New Database and Some Methodological Challenges
This paper explores some methodological issues related to studying household labour force transitions and introduces a new dataset based on the Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS). To illustrate the complexity of the topic, we examine the following research question: How long do "work-poor" households remain "work-poor"? We endeavour to answer this question using the Household Transitions database, created for us by Statistics New Zealand. The database compiles eight quarters of data for several cohorts of HLFS households. Our analyses raise several methodological questions. While solving these problems is important if HLFS data are to be used in studying household based labour force transition s. these issues will also have to be confronted when analysing data from the Survey of Family, Income and Employment.
Fiscal Transparency in EU Accession Countries Progress and Future Challenges
This paper discusses the findings of fiscal transparency reports on standards and codes (ROSCs) for most EU accession candidate countries. Emphasis is given to the need to establish effective and accountable medium-term budget frameworks to establish policy credibility and anchor adjustment programs to meet EU fiscal goals. Adoption of budgeting and accounting standards consistent with the IMF Government Finance Statistics Manual 2001 framework will also help link budget decisions to EU standards of fiscal reporting. More consistent and comprehensive coverage of off-budget activities is needed for assessing fiscal risk and sustainability. Finally, local government issues need to be addressed by many of these countries since EU fiscal goals are set with reference to general government. Progress in all of these areas can be monitored by keeping fiscal ROSC assessments up to date.