Reducing the blunders in forecasting
Abstract Forecasting is going through a crisis, partly attributable to its failure to anticipate so many developments (including the present recession). Specific problems that need tackling by the research community include the tendency to exclude the less quantifiable factors; the difficulties of identifying, relating and foreseeing explanatory variables; assessing degrees of uncertainty; and making the best use of consultants. Prospective analysis, in which forecasts are generated in the light of scenarios, can assist those concerned with actions and the future.
US oil discovery and production
Hubbert's projections, made in 1962, have been fairly accurate up to 1978. But discoveries are tailing off more rapidly than he predicted. Since 1946, each new well completed has added less to the proven reserves, and relatively little oil has been found offshore. In the 1980s, US oil production (as Hubbert projected) will decline sharply—unless tax incentives on investments are adjusted to favour improved recovery from old fields.
Heritage Languages: In the 'Wild' and in the Classroom
Heritage speakers are people raised in a home where one language is spoken who subsequently switch to another dominant language. The version of the home language that they have not completely acquired – heritage language – has only recently been given the attention it deserves from linguists and language instructors. Despite the appearance of great variation among heritage speakers, they fall along a continuum based upon the speakers’ distance from the baseline language. Such a continuum-based model enables researchers and instructors to classify heritage speakers more accurately and readily. This article discusses the results of research on lower-proficiency speakers, identifying recurrent features of heritage languages in phonology, morphology, and syntax. Preliminary results indicate that different heritage languages share a number of structural similarities; this finding is important for the understanding of general processes involved in language acquisition. The article also presents implications of the main findings for language education and identifies areas needing further study.