Modelling approaches for the assessment of projected impacts of drivers of change on biodiversity, ecosystems functions and aquatic ecosystems service delivery
Aquatic ecosystems are rich in biodiversity and home to a diverse array of species and habitats, providing numerous economic and societal benefits to people. Despite progress in defining conservation goals to protect ecosystems and their biodiversity (e.g. the EU 2020 Biodiversity Strategy) biodiversity is declining due to strong anthropogenic activities and over exploitation of natural goods and services. Evaluating the consequences of anthropogenic impacts on biodiversity, and subsequently the ecosystem functioning and ecosystem services provided by aquatic ecosystems, is an important step within ecosystem based management (EBM) approaches. Therefore, it is crucial to better understand the interplay and dependencies between biodiversity, ecosystem functioning and ecosystem services. Based on this understanding, alternative pathways in terms of management scenarios can be explored, which evaluate the impacts and feedbacks to biodiversity, ecosystem functioning and ecosystem services (as described in the AQUACROSS Assessment Framework) The potential outcome of management scenarios can be assessed using simulations and modelling techniques, allowing the modification of specific factors, e.g. conservation or management targets and management costs, while controlling for other factors within the simulation and quantifying the uncertainty in the model predictions.