Contingency modelling for construction projects using fuzzy set theory
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to present a newly developed fuzzy set based model for estimating, allocating, depleting, and managing contingency fund over the life cycle of construction projects. Design/methodology/approach Fuzzy set theory is utilized in the design and development of proposed contingency modelling framework to incorporate uncertainties associated with the development phases of construction projects. A set of developed indices, measures, and ratios are introduced to quantify and characterize these uncertainties. The developed framework is designed to incorporate expert opinion and provide user system interaction. Findings The results obtained from the application of the developed framework on actual project case not only illustrate its accuracy, but also demonstrate its capabilities for contingency management over life cycle of construction projects. Unlike other methods, the framework provides project managers with structured method for contingency depletion utilizing a set