Managing Urban Expansion in Mongolia: Best Practices in Scenario Based Urban Planning
The sustainable development of ger areas in Ulaanbaatar (UB) the capital city of Mongolia, is one of the critical development issues facing the country. The transitions to a market economy and a series of severe winters (called zud) have resulted in the large scale migration of low income families into the ger areas of UB. The city represents 40 percent of the nation's population and generates more than 60 percent of Mongolia's gross domestic product (GDP) This migration pattern has led to an unprecedented expansion of the ger areas. The traditional built up areas of the city center comprise some 130 km2, but the total administrative area of UB, including ger areas, is now estimated at about 4,700 km2. The population of the ger areas is now estimated to make up about 60 percent of the total population of UB. The city's population has grown from 600,000 in 1989 to more than 1 million in 2007 and is expected to reach 1.3 million in 2015. The intent of this report is to clarify the costs and benefits of different development paths. These paths include: (a) conversion of ger areas into apartment building complexes, (b) gradual improvement of urban services for existing ger areas, and (c) further expansion of ger areas at the fringe of the city.