Business Closures, Stay at Home Restrictions, and COVID 19 Testing Outcomes in New York City
Introduction In response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID 19) pandemic, New York City closed all nonessential businesses and restricted the out of home activities of residents as of March 22, 2020. This order affected different neighborhoods differently, as stores and workplaces are not randomly distributed across the city, and different populations may have responded differently to the out of home restrictions. This study examines how the business closures and activity restrictions affected COVID 19 testing results. An evaluation of whether such actions slowed the spread of the pandemic is a crucial step in designing effective public health policies. Methods Daily data on the fraction of COVID 19 tests yielding a positive result at the zip code level were analyzed in relation to the number of visits to local businesses (based on smartphone location) and the number of smartphones that stayed fixed at their home location. The regression model also included vectors of fixed effects for the day of the week, the calendar date, and the zip code of residence. Results A large number of visits to local businesses increased the positivity rate of COVID 19 tests, while a large number of smartphones that stayed at home decreased it. A doubling in the relative number of visits increases the positivity rate by about 12.4 percentage points (95% CI, 5.3 to 19.6) A doubling in the relative number of stay at home devices lowered it by 2.0 percentage points (95% CI, 2.9 to 1.2) The business closures and out of home activity restrictions decreased the positivity rate, accounting for approximately 25% of the decline observed in April and May 2020. Conclusion Policy measures decreased the likelihood of positive results in COVID 19 tests. These specific policy tools may be successfully used when comparable health crises arise in the future.
Preventing chronic disease