[Study on early warning method for influenza epidemic in Gansu province]
OBJECTIVE To explore the appropriate early warning method for influenza epidemic in Gansu province. METHODS By using simple control chart, moving percentile method, exponential smoothing method and cumulative sum control chart method, the annual incidence data of influenza like illness in Gansu province during 2014 2015 were analyzed, and the sensitivities, specificities, positive predictive values, Jorden indexes and Kappa values of the 4 methods were evaluated and compared. RESULTS The 2014 2015 seasonal influenza epidemic occurred in the fiftieth week of 2014 in Gansu, and the epidemic peak lasted for 6 weeks. Cumulative sum control chart method had the best early warning effect with the sensitivity of 66.67% and specificity of 93.48% CONCLUSION It is feasible to use cumulative sum control chart method to give early warning of influenza epidemic in Gansu.
Zhonghua liu xing bing xue za zhi Zhonghua liuxingbingxue zazhi