Demographic Change, Agriculture, and Rural Poverty
Abstract Population growth and urbanization are associated with economic development. Structural transformation entails workers leaving less productive agriculture and moving to more productive industries, often in urban centers. Population growth slows with development, leading to greater dependence on capital and technology rather than on labor. This was Asia's successful pathway. Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) is also transforming, but far less than other regions are and with its own distinctive features. Though Africa is urbanizing, rapid population growth means that rural populations are still expanding. While African workers also are leaving agriculture, they do so at a slower pace than workers in Asia and are finding work in less productive services rather than in manufacturing. Such "urbanization without industrialization" raises concerns about Africa's ability to create enough jobs for its urban workforce and underscores the need for continued focus on rural Africa. This chapter reviews the linkages between urbanization, agriculture and rural poverty in SSA, where most of the world's poor will soon reside. It suggests that much of the economic growth and structural change that Africa enjoyed over the past two decades, attributable to a shift out of agriculture, was in fact an expansion of downstream components of the agriculture food system. Like agriculture, many downstream activities have strong linkages to poverty reduction. Governments concerned about jobs and poverty will need to raise productivity, not only in agriculture, but also throughout the entire food system. Since many downstream processing and trading activities are in towns and cities, promoting future poverty reduction will require greater alignment between agricultural and urban policies. Demographic change and rural urban linkages will continue to be powerful drivers of global poverty reduction, but ensuring inclusive transformation will require broader development perspectives and policy coordination.