Changes in sea surface temperature and atmospheric circulation patterns associated with reductions in Arctic sea ice cover in recent decades
Abstract. In recent decades, the Arctic sea ice has been declining at a rapid pace as the Arctic warms at a rate of twice the global average. The underlying physical mechanisms for the Arctic warming and accelerated sea ice retreat are not fully understood. In this study, we apply a relatively novel statistical method called self organizing maps (SOM) along with composite analysis to examine the trend and variability of autumn Arctic sea ice in the past three decades and their relationships to large scale atmospheric circulation changes. Our statistical results show that the anomalous autumn Arctic dipole (AD) (Node 1) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) (Node 9) could explain in a statistical sense as much as 50 of autumn sea ice decline between 1979 and 2016. The Arctic atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) patterns over the North Pacific and North Atlantic influence Arctic sea ice primarily through anomalous temperature and water vapor advection and associated radiative feedback.