Forecasting operating profitability with DuPont analysis: Further evidence
Purpose The purpose of this study is to re examine the relation between changes in profit margin ?PM) and changes in return on net operating assets ?RNOA) by partitioning on the direction of the change in PM. DuPont analysis provides a means of disaggregating a firm's return on net operating assets (RNOA) into asset turnover (ATO) and profit margin (PM) components to gain insights into the underlying drivers of operating profitability. Prior research finds that changes in ATO are informative about one year ahead changes in RNOA, while changes in PM are not. Design/methodology/approach Consistent with prior research, regression analysis is used to develop a predictive model for one year ahead changes in RNOA. Results based on in sample parameter estimates are used to examine the out of sample forecasting accuracy of alternative model specifications. Findings The results are consistent with significant forecast improvement resulting from considering the impact on future RNOA of the direction of the ?PM. Originality/value The study contributes to the literature on the determinants of profitability ratios by providing further guidance on how financial statement information can be utilized to improve forecasts of firm performance.