Dynamics of technology innovation and diffusion with emphasis on wind energy
This thesis takes an interdisciplinary look at wind energy innovation and diffusion through a historical case study and system dynamic quantitative model. The former uses a framework known as actornetwork theory (that allows technical as well social forces to shape historical outcomes) and applies it to an in depth case study of the history of the technology throughout several epoques. Rather than simplifying the story of the technology into a case of winners and losers, as past studies have done, this work demonstrates the complexity of the history of wind technology where many individuals in different countries, companies and national governments, all play a key role in both direct and indirect development of the technology. Without the confluence of activity from these different groups across time and space, the story of wind energy would be very different. In particular, the history shows how the technology develops and diffuses in different regions at different times in different eras, but that traces of each epoque survive into the next so that the overall history of wind energy technology has some continuous threads and an accumulation of global learning. This perspective serves as a basis for the development of a system dynamics model of wind energy development and deployment. The model examines the interplay of technology innovation and diffusion dynamics where markets for the technology are local but innovation and learning is global. Wind energy for electricity generation has overcome significant volatility in local markets over the last several decades thanks to the global aggregation of demand from different countries at different times. At the same time, the persistent presence of a market somewhere in the world at any given time has allowed continuous innovation and technology learning to take place. Looking forward, these local and global feedbacks for innovation and diffusion have important implications for the further development of technology and its ability to become a prominent global source of electricity generation. Acknowledgements So many people have played an important role in providing me with guidance, insight and support in the development of this thesis. Firstly, I would like to thanks Professor Oye who has served as my committee chair and guided me throughout this process. I cannot thank him enough for never giving up on me and providing me with the opportunity to first explore the topic of wind energy innovation through the IGERT Program on Emerging Technologies. Through that program, he along with committee member Professor Smith led a team of researchers to bring together engineering systems, political science and history of technology to explore innovation and diffusion of new technologies in a unique an interdisciplinary way. I also want to provide many thanks to Professor Sterman who worked with me during countless sessions to develop a dynamic model of wind energy diffusion and innovation to complement the case study work. It has been a long process and quite difficult, and his insights throughout the model development have been invaluable. Lastly, I want to thank committee member Professor Kirtley who has provided critical feedback on my thesis during its development and the results. At MIT, there are a number of other fantastic people who have provided me with guidance and I would like to give thanks to the faculty of the Institute for Data, Systems and Society (formerly the Engineering Systems Division) who have given me a once in a lifetime opportunity to pursue my PhD in a unique and interdisciplinary research program. I would like to give a special thank you there to my defense chair Professor de Neufville who offered guidance on many matters during my PhD candidacy. Also, I appreciate so much all the support Beth Milnes gave my fellow PhD candidates and me during our time at MIT. Outside of MIT, I am indebted to a huge number of people who allowed me to interview them and inspired me along the way as I dove deeper into the history of wind energy. Firstly, I have to thank Dr. Larry Viterna, formerly of NASA and currently of Nautica Windpower. Dr. Viterna was an integral member of the NASA wind energy program in the 1970s and it was hearing him speak about his experiences that first captivated me about the unique and tumultuous history of wind energy innovation. Since then, I have had the opportunity to engage with a huge number of wind energy pioneers from the late 1970s and early 1980s and their input has helped shaped the work of my thesis. I would also like to thank my colleagues at NREL and in particular, my mentor Chief Engineer Dr. Paul Veers who has encouraged me countless times to continue my PhD work and who has provided feedback to my thesis development. Finally, I would like to thank my friends and family who have been exceedingly patient with me, as I have gone through this process. Much love to my mother Virginia Dykes and father Robert Dykes for their love and guidance throughout my life. I would not be where I am if it was not for you!