Optimal dispatch based on prediction of distributed electric heating storages in combined electricity and heat networks
Abstract The volatility of wind power generations could significantly challenge the economic and secure operation of combined electricity and heat networks. To tackle this challenge, this paper proposes a framework of optimal dispatch with distributed electric heating storage based on a correlation based long short term memory prediction model. The prediction model of distributed electric heating storage is developed to model its behavior characteristics which are obtained by the auto correlation and correlation analysis with external factors including weather and time of use price. An optimal dispatch model of combined electricity and heat networks is then formulated and resolved by a constraint reduction technique with clustering and classification. Our method is verified through numerous simulations. The results show that, compared with the state of the art techniques of support vector machine and recurrent neural networks, the mean absolute percentage error with the proposed correlation based long short term memory can be reduced by 1.009 and 0.481 respectively. Compared with conventional method, the peak wind power curtailment with dispatching distributed electric heating storage is reduced by nearly 30% and 50% in two cases respectively.