1484363
Public health evaluation in the twenty-first century: time to see the wood as well as the trees.
This paper argues that concepts, methodologies and practices within public health need further development if they are to be sufficient to allow us to develop, undertake and evaluate interventions in the twenty-first century. The public health profession, and the disciplines that contribute to it, maintains the historical focus upon detailed micro analysis (individual and health sector) and not broader macro analysis (societal and system). This brief paper suggests why this is and outlines three challenges it poses: specifying and evaluating outcomes; specifying and understanding complex causal pathways in social interventions and the development of multisector evaluation, to meet information demands from multiple stakeholders. While there is general agreement that public health evaluation needs development, this paper argues that the focus needs to be more upon a broader evaluative space than is currently practiced. There is a need to move beyond primary and secondary health-related effects upon individuals, and focus more on evaluation of the wider range and distribution of direct and indirect effects upon individuals, communities and populations. That is, those involved in public health evaluation need to step back and first consider the wood before focusing in on specific trees.
26796548
Medical tourism: a review of the literature and analysis of a role for bi-lateral trade.
OBJECTIVES
With increasing globalization, many countries are considering opening their health systems to greater cross-border movement of patients. This is usually done from the viewpoint of a multi-lateral trade relationship. This paper considers the issues that arise from this debate from a bi-lateral perspective.


METHODS
A systematic literature review was carried out on 'Medical Tourism' from the perspective of a bi-lateral trade relationship, using the UK and India as a case study.


RESULTS
There is a dearth of data and discussion on such bi-lateral trade. This limited evidence offers some suggestions. Exporting countries may benefit from medical tourism by generating foreign exchange and reversing the brain drain, but run the risk of creating a dual system, where the local population is crowded out. Importing countries can benefit from alleviating waiting lists and lowering healthcare costs, but may risk quality of care and legal liability. However, evidence from a bi-lateral perspective suggests that the positive aspects can be capitalised, and the negative ones reduced.


CONCLUSIONS
The key recommendations from this paper are for more evidence to be collected at the country and international level, and for countries to consider trade in health services from a bi-lateral rather than multi-lateral perspective.
13856154
Macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza and associated policies in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda
BACKGROUND
Research has shown the value of conducting a macroeconomic analysis of the impact of influenza pandemics. However, previous modelling applications focus on high-income countries, and there is a lack of evidence concerning the potential impact of an influenza pandemic on lower- and middle-income countries.


OBJECTIVES
To estimate the macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda with particular reference to pandemic (H1N1) 2009.


METHODS
A single-country whole-economy Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was set up for each of the three countries in question and used to estimate the economic impact of declines in labour attributable to morbidity, mortality and school closure.


RESULTS
Overall GDP impacts were less than 1% of GDP for all countries and scenarios. Uganda's losses were proportionally larger than those of Thailand and South Africa. Labour-intensive sectors suffer the largest losses.


CONCLUSION
The economic cost of unavoidable absence in the event of an influenza pandemic could be proportionally larger for low-income countries. The cost of mild pandemics, such as pandemic (H1N1) 2009, appears to be small, but could increase for more severe pandemics and/or pandemics with greater behavioural change and avoidable absence.
39397016
The relationship between reliability and size of willingness-to-pay values: a qualitative insight.
In a previous paper, the reliability of willingness-to-pay (WTP) values was found to be an increasing function of the size of WTP expressed. Here, the results of a qualitative exercise conducted alongside this quantitative study are presented. The results of this exercise suggest that higher WTP values may require more thought from the respondent which, in turn, gives them greater stability. At low levels of WTP, values appear to be taken from a 'discretionary account', where expenditure is more volatile. Caveats to this result, and suggestions for future research, are considered in the discussion.
7096884
Foreign direct investment and trade in health services: a review of the literature.
Globalization is a key challenge facing health policy-makers. A significant aspect of this is direct trade in health services, a result of the rise of transnational corporations, challenges in health care financing, porous borders and improved technology creating the scope for increased 'foreign direct investment' (FDI) in health care. This has gathered momentum with the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS), which aims to further liberalize trade in services, and within which FDI has been noted as perhaps the most critical area for trade negotiation. Given the rapid development of this area, there are little empirical data. This paper therefore seeks to provide the first comprehensive and systematic review of evidence concerning FDI and health services. This process included electronic bibliographic database searches, website searches and correspondence with experts in the area of trade in health services, from which 76 papers, books and reports were reviewed. Perhaps due to the rapid developments in this area, most of the literature is speculative, polarized between those arguing for the benefits of liberalization and those arguing against. However, there seem to be three issues which emerge as of most importance: (i) the extent to which a national health system is commercialized per se is of more significance than whether investment in it is foreign or domestic; (ii) the national regulatory environment and its 'strength' will significantly determine the economic and health impact of FDI, the effectiveness of safeguard measures, and the stability of GATS commitments; and (iii) any negotiations will depend upon parties having a common understanding of what is being negotiated, and the interpretation of key definitions is thus critical. Each of these issues is explored in some depth, with the overall conclusion that countries should take a step back and first think through the risks and benefits of commercialization of their health sector, rather than being sidetracked in to considering the level of foreign investment.
18066304
Macroeconomic impact of a mild influenza pandemic and associated policies in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda: a computable general equilibrium analysis
Background Previous research has demonstrated the value of macroeconomic analysis of the impact of influenza pandemics. However, previous modelling applications focus on high‐income countries and there is a lack of evidence concerning the potential impact of an influenza pandemic on lower‐ and middle‐income countries. Objectives To estimate the macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda with particular reference to pandemic (H1N1) 2009. Methods A single‐country whole‐economy computable general equilibrium (CGE) model was set up for each of the three countries in question and used to estimate the economic impact of declines in labour attributable to morbidity, mortality and school closure. Results Overall GDP impacts were less than 1% of GDP for all countries and scenarios. Uganda's losses were proportionally larger than those of Thailand and South Africa. Labour‐intensive sectors suffer the largest losses. Conclusions The economic cost of unavoidable absence in the event of an influenza pandemic could be proportionally larger for low‐income countries. The cost of mild pandemics, such as pandemic (H1N1) 2009, appears to be small, but could increase for more severe pandemics and/or pandemics with greater behavioural change and avoidable absence.
33674054
Timing of perinatal human immunodeficiency virus type 1 infection and rate of neurodevelopment. The Women and Infant Transmission Study Group.
BACKGROUND
Identifying HIV-1-infected children who are at greatest risk for disease-related morbidities is critical for optimal therapeutic as well as preventive care. Several factors have been implicated in HIV-1 disease onset and severity, including maternal and infant host characteristics, viral phenotype and timing of HIV-1 infection. Early HIV-1 culture positivity, i.e. intrauterine infection, has been associated with poor immunologic, virologic and clinical outcomes in children of HIV-infected women. However, a direct effect of timing of infection on neurodevelopmental outcome in infancy has not yet been identified.


METHODS
Serial neurodevelopmental assessments were performed with 114 infants vertically infected with HIV-1 in a multicenter natural history, longitudinal study. Median mental and motor scores were compared at three time points. Longitudinal regression analyses were used to evaluate the neurodevelopmental functioning of children with early positive cultures and those with late positive cultures.


RESULTS
Early infected infants scored significantly lower than late infected infants by 24 months of age and beyond on both mental (P = 0.05) and motor (P = 0.03) measures. Early HIV-1 infection was associated with a decline in estimated motor scores of 1 standard score point per month compared with 0.28 point in the late infected group (P < 0.02). Estimated mental scores of the early infected group declined 0.72 point/ month, whereas the average decline of the late infected group was 0.30 point/month (P < 0.13).


CONCLUSION
Early HIV-1 infection increases a child's risk for poor neurodevelopmental functioning within the first 30 months of life.
4414519
An end to violence
“I should only make myself ridiculous in my own eyes if I clung to life.”*
23358532
Corticotropin-releasing hormone directly and preferentially stimulates dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate secretion by human fetal adrenal cortical cells.
Estrogens produced by the placenta play a pivotal role in the endocrine control of pregnancy and induce many of the key changes involved in parturition. The placentae of humans and higher primates use the C19 androgen dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEA-S) supplied by the fetal adrenals as the principal substrate for estrogen synthesis. Thus, secretion of androgens by the fetal adrenals may be central to the process of primate parturition. The timing of human parturition also is correlated with placental CRH concentrations in the maternal circulation. Because the mechanisms that regulate DHEA-S production by the fetal adrenals are incompletely understood, we examined whether there is a functional relationship between CRH and steroid production by human fetal adrenal cortical cells. Using Northern blot analysis, we detected messenger RNA transcripts (2.7 kb) encoding the type-1 CRH receptor in total RNA extracted from midgestation human fetal adrenals, suggesting that the fetal adrenal cortex may be directly responsive to CRH. To test this, primary cultures of human fetal adrenal cortical cells were exposed to human CRH. Human CRH increased DHEA-S production by cultured human fetal adrenal cortical cells in a dose-dependent fashion, with an ED50 of 10-100 pmol/L. Human CRH was as effective as ACTH at stimulating DHEA-S production; however, it was 70% less potent than ACTH at stimulating cortisol production, indicating that its actions were preferentially directed toward increasing DHEA-S synthesis. Consistent with this thesis, we found that CRH increased abundance of messenger RNA encoding cytochrome P450 cholesterol side-chain cleavage and 17alpha-hydroxylase/17,20 lyase but not 3beta-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase in adrenal cells. CRH did not alter cell number, indicating that it is not mitogenic for fetal adrenal cortical cells. These data demonstrate a direct functional interaction between CRH and the fetal adrenal. Therefore, placental CRH production, which rises exponentially during human pregnancy, may play a key role in promoting DHEA-S production by the fetal adrenals, which could lead to increasing placental estrogen synthesis and contribute to the process of parturition in humans.
23247928
Unexplained antepartum stillbirth: a consequence of placental aging?
Unexplained antepartum stillbirth is a major obstetric health problem. Data demonstrate a rapid rise in risk per 1000 continuing pregnancies as gestation advances beyond 40 weeks. We review the evidence that such stillbirths are a consequence of aging related changes in the late gestation placenta. We suggest that the relatively small number of continuing pregnancies after 40 completed weeks means that negative effects of genes that produce aging affect so few pregnancies that polymorphisms in genes that produce these effects are retained in the population. Aging related changes likely represent a consequence of the damaging effects of oxidative stress, increased by cigarette smoking counteracted by the mitigating effects of oxidative defence pathways. The aging related changes are likely downstream from nutrient sensing units such as mTOR and include effects on production of telomerase and consequent shortening of telomere length. The late gestation changes occur in the context of increasing fetal growth and nutrient supply demands that can produce the rapid development of a mismatch between placental supply and fetal need resulting in fetal demise. Premature aging may also play an important role in antepartum stillbirth occurring earlier in pregnancy, especially in the context of growth restriction.
205696369
Impact of HIV severity on cognitive and adaptive functioning during childhood and adolescence.
BACKGROUND
The influence of disease severity on cognitive and adaptive functioning in perinatally HIV-infected youth with (PHIV+/C) and without (PHIV+/NoC) a previous AIDS-defining illness (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Class C event), compared with perinatally HIV-exposed but uninfected youth (PHEU) is not well understood.


METHODS
This was a cross-sectional analysis of cognitive and adaptive functioning in PHIV+/C (n = 88), PHIV+/NoC (n = 270) and PHEU (n = 200) youth aged 7-16 years, from a multisite prospective cohort study. Youth and caregivers completed the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children, Fourth Edition and the Adaptive Behavior Assessment System, Second Edition, respectively. We compared means and rates of impairment between groups, and examined associations with other psychosocial factors.


RESULTS
Overall mean scores on measures of cognitive and adaptive functioning were in the low average range for all 3 groups. After adjustment for covariates, mean full-scale intelligence quotient scores were significantly lower for the PHIV+/C group than the PHIV+/NoC and PHEU groups (mean = 77.8 versus 83.4 and 83.3, respectively), whereas no significant differences were observed between the PHEU and PHIV+/NoC groups in any domain. Lower cognitive performance for the PHIV+/C group was primarily attributable to a prior diagnosis of encephalopathy. No significant differences between groups were observed in adaptive functioning.


CONCLUSION
For long-term survivors, youth with HIV infection and a prior Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Class C event have higher risk for cognitive but not adaptive impairment regardless of current health status; this finding appears attributable to a previous diagnosis of encephalopathy. Early preventive therapy may be critical in reducing risk of later neurodevelopmental impairments.