7096884
Foreign direct investment and trade in health services: a review of the literature.
Globalization is a key challenge facing health policy-makers. A significant aspect of this is direct trade in health services, a result of the rise of transnational corporations, challenges in health care financing, porous borders and improved technology creating the scope for increased 'foreign direct investment' (FDI) in health care. This has gathered momentum with the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS), which aims to further liberalize trade in services, and within which FDI has been noted as perhaps the most critical area for trade negotiation. Given the rapid development of this area, there are little empirical data. This paper therefore seeks to provide the first comprehensive and systematic review of evidence concerning FDI and health services. This process included electronic bibliographic database searches, website searches and correspondence with experts in the area of trade in health services, from which 76 papers, books and reports were reviewed. Perhaps due to the rapid developments in this area, most of the literature is speculative, polarized between those arguing for the benefits of liberalization and those arguing against. However, there seem to be three issues which emerge as of most importance: (i) the extent to which a national health system is commercialized per se is of more significance than whether investment in it is foreign or domestic; (ii) the national regulatory environment and its 'strength' will significantly determine the economic and health impact of FDI, the effectiveness of safeguard measures, and the stability of GATS commitments; and (iii) any negotiations will depend upon parties having a common understanding of what is being negotiated, and the interpretation of key definitions is thus critical. Each of these issues is explored in some depth, with the overall conclusion that countries should take a step back and first think through the risks and benefits of commercialization of their health sector, rather than being sidetracked in to considering the level of foreign investment.
39397016
The relationship between reliability and size of willingness-to-pay values: a qualitative insight.
In a previous paper, the reliability of willingness-to-pay (WTP) values was found to be an increasing function of the size of WTP expressed. Here, the results of a qualitative exercise conducted alongside this quantitative study are presented. The results of this exercise suggest that higher WTP values may require more thought from the respondent which, in turn, gives them greater stability. At low levels of WTP, values appear to be taken from a 'discretionary account', where expenditure is more volatile. Caveats to this result, and suggestions for future research, are considered in the discussion.
23464544
A macroeconomic approach to evaluating policies to contain antimicrobial resistance
BackgroundAntimicrobial resistance (AMR) is, at least in part, associated with high antimicrobial usage and causes increased morbidity, mortality and healthcare costs. However, policies to contain AMR focus on ‘micro’ interventions — typically in one institution (usually a hospital). Furthermore, in evaluating these interventions, economists tend to concentrate on the economic impact to the healthcare sector alone, which may give an incorrect estimation of the social costs and benefits of a disease or intervention.MethodsThis study outlines and illustrates a macroeconomic approach to tackling AMR through the evaluation of three ‘macro’ policies: regulation, permits and taxes/charges. In addition to effects on the healthcare sector, the effect of AMR (and these three policies to contain it) on labour productivity, GDP, household income, government transfers, tax revenues, unemployment, inflation and social services are estimated for the UK using the specific context of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA).ResultsAMR is likely to have a far greater impact on the national economy than would be estimated by concentrating on the healthcare sector alone.ConclusionThe permit system appears to offer the most efficient ‘solution’ to optimising antimicrobial consumption and, hence, reducing the development of resistance.
11081915
Estimating the economic impact of pandemic influenza: An application of the computable general equilibrium model to the UK

 Abstract
 
 There is concern regarding the impact that a global infectious disease pandemic might have, especially the economic impact in the current financial climate. However, preparedness planning concentrates more upon population health and maintaining a functioning health sector than on the wider economic impact. We developed a single country Computable General Equilibrium model to estimate the economic impact of pandemic influenza (PI) and associated policies. While the context for this development was the United Kingdom, there are lessons to be drawn for application of this methodology, as well as indicative results, to other contexts.
 Disease scenarios were constructed from an epidemiological model which estimated case fatality rates (mild, moderate and severe) as 0.06%, 0.18% and 0.35%. A clinical attack rate of 35% was also used to produce influenza scenarios, together with preparedness policies, including antivirals and school closure, and the possible prophylactic absence of workers.
 UK cost estimates (in Sterling) are presented, together with relative percentage impacts applicable to similar large economies. Percentage/cost estimates suggest PI would reduce GDP by 0.3% (£3.5bn), 0.4% (£5bn) and 0.6% (£7.4bn) respectively for the three disease scenarios. However, the impact of PI itself is smaller than disease mitigation policies: combining school closure with prophylactic absenteeism yields percentage/cost effects of 1.1% (£14.7bn), 1.3% (£16.3bn) and 1.4% (£18.5bn) respectively for the three scenarios. Sensitivity analysis shows little variability with changes in disease parameters but notable changes with variations in school closure and prophylactic absenteeism. The most severe sensitivity scenario results in a 2.9% (£37.4bn), 3.2% (£41.4bn) and 3.7% (£47.5bn) loss to GDP respectively for the three scenarios.
 

11455466
Trade and health: an agenda for action
The processes of contemporary globalisation are creating ever-closer ties between individuals and populations across different countries. The health of a population, and the systems in place to deliver health care, are affected increasingly by factors beyond the population and health system. The Lancet's Series on trade and health has provided an overview of these links between international trade, trade liberalisation, and health, and raised the key issues that face the health community. In this final paper in the Series, we call for a substantial and sustained effort by those within the health profession to engage with issues of trade, to strengthen institutional capacity in this area, and to place health higher on the agenda of trade negotiations. The rapid rise of trade agreements and treaties, as well as trade that occurs beyond these institutional boundaries, means that further action is required by a range of actors, including WHO, the World Bank, the World Trade Organization (WTO), regional agencies, foundations, national governments, civil society, non-governmental organisations, and academics. The stewardship of a domestic health system in the 21st century requires a sophisticated understanding of how trade affects, and will affect, a country's health system and policy, to optimise opportunities to benefit health and health care while minimising the risks posed though the assertion of health goals in trade policy. To acheive this will place a premium on all those engaged in health to understand the importance of trade and to engage with their counterparts involved in trade and trade policy. We hope that this Series has prompted the reader to become involved in these efforts.
13856154
Macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza and associated policies in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda
BACKGROUND
Research has shown the value of conducting a macroeconomic analysis of the impact of influenza pandemics. However, previous modelling applications focus on high-income countries, and there is a lack of evidence concerning the potential impact of an influenza pandemic on lower- and middle-income countries.


OBJECTIVES
To estimate the macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda with particular reference to pandemic (H1N1) 2009.


METHODS
A single-country whole-economy Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was set up for each of the three countries in question and used to estimate the economic impact of declines in labour attributable to morbidity, mortality and school closure.


RESULTS
Overall GDP impacts were less than 1% of GDP for all countries and scenarios. Uganda's losses were proportionally larger than those of Thailand and South Africa. Labour-intensive sectors suffer the largest losses.


CONCLUSION
The economic cost of unavoidable absence in the event of an influenza pandemic could be proportionally larger for low-income countries. The cost of mild pandemics, such as pandemic (H1N1) 2009, appears to be small, but could increase for more severe pandemics and/or pandemics with greater behavioural change and avoidable absence.
34675616
Mood changes, obstetric experience and alterations in plasma cortisol, beta-endorphin and corticotrophin releasing hormone during pregnancy and the puerperium.
The relationships between mood change, obstetric experience and alterations in plasma cortisol, beta-endorphin (beta-EP) and corticotrophin-releasing hormone (CRH) were examined in a prospective study of 97 primiparous Australian women. Psychological measures were administered between the 28th week of pregnancy and the 3rd postnatal month, including the Profile of Mood States (POMS) and the Montgomery Asberg Depressive Rating Scale (MADRS). Blood samples were collected for cortisol, beta-EP and CRH assay on most of these occasions and during labour. Factor analysis was used to identify key subsets of psychological variables for use in the subsequent analyses. 'Mood disturbance' and 'tiredness' factors peaked at 38 weeks' gestation, while 'difficulty falling asleep' was greatest around the time of birth. Cortisol, beta-EP and CRH concentrations rose significantly as pregnancy advanced and peaked at birth; plasma CRH correlated with plasma cortisol (r = 0.54) and beta-EP (r = 0.32). Women with the highest 'mood disturbance' and MADRS depression scores at 28 weeks' gestation received significantly more pain relief during labour. Those women whose mood deteriorated from 38 weeks' gestation to postnatal day 2 had larger falls in plasma beta-EP after delivery (p less than 0.01) than those women whose mood improved or remained constant. Women in this mood-deteriorated subgroup also had significantly higher MADRS depression scores at 3 months (p less than 0.01). Mild antenatal depression (MADRS greater than 13) occurred in 5.2% of women and mild postnatal depression in 4.7%. Overall, these data suggest a role for circulating CRH in the regulation of maternal cortisol secretion and significant relationships between maternal postnatal mood states and beta-EP and between antenatal mood states and obstetric events.
33674054
Timing of perinatal human immunodeficiency virus type 1 infection and rate of neurodevelopment. The Women and Infant Transmission Study Group.
BACKGROUND
Identifying HIV-1-infected children who are at greatest risk for disease-related morbidities is critical for optimal therapeutic as well as preventive care. Several factors have been implicated in HIV-1 disease onset and severity, including maternal and infant host characteristics, viral phenotype and timing of HIV-1 infection. Early HIV-1 culture positivity, i.e. intrauterine infection, has been associated with poor immunologic, virologic and clinical outcomes in children of HIV-infected women. However, a direct effect of timing of infection on neurodevelopmental outcome in infancy has not yet been identified.


METHODS
Serial neurodevelopmental assessments were performed with 114 infants vertically infected with HIV-1 in a multicenter natural history, longitudinal study. Median mental and motor scores were compared at three time points. Longitudinal regression analyses were used to evaluate the neurodevelopmental functioning of children with early positive cultures and those with late positive cultures.


RESULTS
Early infected infants scored significantly lower than late infected infants by 24 months of age and beyond on both mental (P = 0.05) and motor (P = 0.03) measures. Early HIV-1 infection was associated with a decline in estimated motor scores of 1 standard score point per month compared with 0.28 point in the late infected group (P < 0.02). Estimated mental scores of the early infected group declined 0.72 point/ month, whereas the average decline of the late infected group was 0.30 point/month (P < 0.13).


CONCLUSION
Early HIV-1 infection increases a child's risk for poor neurodevelopmental functioning within the first 30 months of life.
23247928
Unexplained antepartum stillbirth: a consequence of placental aging?
Unexplained antepartum stillbirth is a major obstetric health problem. Data demonstrate a rapid rise in risk per 1000 continuing pregnancies as gestation advances beyond 40 weeks. We review the evidence that such stillbirths are a consequence of aging related changes in the late gestation placenta. We suggest that the relatively small number of continuing pregnancies after 40 completed weeks means that negative effects of genes that produce aging affect so few pregnancies that polymorphisms in genes that produce these effects are retained in the population. Aging related changes likely represent a consequence of the damaging effects of oxidative stress, increased by cigarette smoking counteracted by the mitigating effects of oxidative defence pathways. The aging related changes are likely downstream from nutrient sensing units such as mTOR and include effects on production of telomerase and consequent shortening of telomere length. The late gestation changes occur in the context of increasing fetal growth and nutrient supply demands that can produce the rapid development of a mismatch between placental supply and fetal need resulting in fetal demise. Premature aging may also play an important role in antepartum stillbirth occurring earlier in pregnancy, especially in the context of growth restriction.
18785381
Depletion of rabphilin 3A in a transgenic mouse model (R6/1) of Huntington's disease, a possible culprit in synaptic dysfunction
Huntington's disease (HD) is a hereditary neurodegenerative disorder characterized by progressive psychiatric, cognitive, and motor disturbances. We studied the expression of synaptic vesicle proteins in the R6/1 transgenic mouse model of HD. We observed that the levels of rabphilin 3A, a protein involved in exocytosis, is substantially decreased in synapses of most brain regions in R6/1 mice. The appearance of the reduction coincides with the onset of motor deficits and behavioral disturbances. Double immunohistochemistry did not show colocalization between rabphilin 3A and huntingtin aggregates in the HD mice. Using in situ hybridization, we demonstrated that rabphilin 3A mRNA expression was substantially reduced in the R6/1 mouse cortex compared to wild-type mice. Our results indicate that a decrease in mRNA levels underlie the depletion of protein levels of rabphilin 3A, and we suggest that this reduction may be involved in causing impaired synaptic transmission in R6/1 mice.
3424059
Alterations in the hypothalamic pituitary adrenal axis during pregnancy and the placental clock that determines the length of parturition.
Although corticotrophin releasing hormone (CRH) was initially identified as a hypothalamic peptide it is also synthesised in the placenta and secreted into both the maternal and fetal circulation. The presence of large molecular weight forms in the placenta suggest that secretion may be constitutive rather that regulated. Placental CRH is bioactive but causes only modest increases in ACTH and cortisol in the pregnant woman because of agonist induced desensitisation of pituitary CRH receptors. CRH concentrations increase exponentially in maternal plasma as gestation advances. Elevated concentrations, compared with gestational age matched controls, occur in patients in preterm labour. The exponential curve describing the CRH increase is shifted to the left in women who will subsequently deliver preterm and to the right in women who will deliver post dates indicating that CRH is linked to a placental clock which determines the length of gestation. Maternal plasma CRH concentrations may be useful in identifying women at high risk of preterm delivery and CRH antagonists may prevent preterm labour. As significant CRH production by the placenta is restricted to primates future research must take into account the species specificity of the mechanisms regulating parturition.