17501143
The economy-wide impact of pandemic influenza on the UK: a computable general equilibrium modelling experiment
Objectives To estimate the potential economic impact of pandemic influenza, associated behavioural responses, school closures, and vaccination on the United Kingdom. Design A computable general equilibrium model of the UK economy was specified for various combinations of mortality and morbidity from pandemic influenza, vaccine efficacy, school closures, and prophylactic absenteeism using published data. Setting The 2004 UK economy (the most up to date available with suitable economic data). Main outcome measures The economic impact of various scenarios with different pandemic severity, vaccination, school closure, and prophylactic absenteeism specified in terms of gross domestic product, output from different economic sectors, and equivalent variation. Results The costs related to illness alone ranged between 0.5% and 1.0% of gross domestic product (£8.4bn to £16.8bn) for low fatality scenarios, 3.3% and 4.3% (£55.5bn to £72.3bn) for high fatality scenarios, and larger still for an extreme pandemic. School closure increases the economic impact, particularly for mild pandemics. If widespread behavioural change takes place and there is large scale prophylactic absence from work, the economic impact would be notably increased with few health benefits. Vaccination with a pre-pandemic vaccine could save 0.13% to 2.3% of gross domestic product (£2.2bn to £38.6bn); a single dose of a matched vaccine could save 0.3% to 4.3% (£5.0bn to £72.3bn); and two doses of a matched vaccine could limit the overall economic impact to about 1% of gross domestic product for all disease scenarios. Conclusion Balancing school closure against “business as usual” and obtaining sufficient stocks of effective vaccine are more important factors in determining the economic impact of an influenza pandemic than is the disease itself. Prophylactic absence from work in response to fear of infection can add considerably to the economic impact.
39397016
The relationship between reliability and size of willingness-to-pay values: a qualitative insight.
In a previous paper, the reliability of willingness-to-pay (WTP) values was found to be an increasing function of the size of WTP expressed. Here, the results of a qualitative exercise conducted alongside this quantitative study are presented. The results of this exercise suggest that higher WTP values may require more thought from the respondent which, in turn, gives them greater stability. At low levels of WTP, values appear to be taken from a 'discretionary account', where expenditure is more volatile. Caveats to this result, and suggestions for future research, are considered in the discussion.
18066304
Macroeconomic impact of a mild influenza pandemic and associated policies in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda: a computable general equilibrium analysis
Background Previous research has demonstrated the value of macroeconomic analysis of the impact of influenza pandemics. However, previous modelling applications focus on high‐income countries and there is a lack of evidence concerning the potential impact of an influenza pandemic on lower‐ and middle‐income countries. Objectives To estimate the macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda with particular reference to pandemic (H1N1) 2009. Methods A single‐country whole‐economy computable general equilibrium (CGE) model was set up for each of the three countries in question and used to estimate the economic impact of declines in labour attributable to morbidity, mortality and school closure. Results Overall GDP impacts were less than 1% of GDP for all countries and scenarios. Uganda's losses were proportionally larger than those of Thailand and South Africa. Labour‐intensive sectors suffer the largest losses. Conclusions The economic cost of unavoidable absence in the event of an influenza pandemic could be proportionally larger for low‐income countries. The cost of mild pandemics, such as pandemic (H1N1) 2009, appears to be small, but could increase for more severe pandemics and/or pandemics with greater behavioural change and avoidable absence.
7096884
Foreign direct investment and trade in health services: a review of the literature.
Globalization is a key challenge facing health policy-makers. A significant aspect of this is direct trade in health services, a result of the rise of transnational corporations, challenges in health care financing, porous borders and improved technology creating the scope for increased 'foreign direct investment' (FDI) in health care. This has gathered momentum with the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS), which aims to further liberalize trade in services, and within which FDI has been noted as perhaps the most critical area for trade negotiation. Given the rapid development of this area, there are little empirical data. This paper therefore seeks to provide the first comprehensive and systematic review of evidence concerning FDI and health services. This process included electronic bibliographic database searches, website searches and correspondence with experts in the area of trade in health services, from which 76 papers, books and reports were reviewed. Perhaps due to the rapid developments in this area, most of the literature is speculative, polarized between those arguing for the benefits of liberalization and those arguing against. However, there seem to be three issues which emerge as of most importance: (i) the extent to which a national health system is commercialized per se is of more significance than whether investment in it is foreign or domestic; (ii) the national regulatory environment and its 'strength' will significantly determine the economic and health impact of FDI, the effectiveness of safeguard measures, and the stability of GATS commitments; and (iii) any negotiations will depend upon parties having a common understanding of what is being negotiated, and the interpretation of key definitions is thus critical. Each of these issues is explored in some depth, with the overall conclusion that countries should take a step back and first think through the risks and benefits of commercialization of their health sector, rather than being sidetracked in to considering the level of foreign investment.
26796548
Medical tourism: a review of the literature and analysis of a role for bi-lateral trade.
OBJECTIVES
With increasing globalization, many countries are considering opening their health systems to greater cross-border movement of patients. This is usually done from the viewpoint of a multi-lateral trade relationship. This paper considers the issues that arise from this debate from a bi-lateral perspective.


METHODS
A systematic literature review was carried out on 'Medical Tourism' from the perspective of a bi-lateral trade relationship, using the UK and India as a case study.


RESULTS
There is a dearth of data and discussion on such bi-lateral trade. This limited evidence offers some suggestions. Exporting countries may benefit from medical tourism by generating foreign exchange and reversing the brain drain, but run the risk of creating a dual system, where the local population is crowded out. Importing countries can benefit from alleviating waiting lists and lowering healthcare costs, but may risk quality of care and legal liability. However, evidence from a bi-lateral perspective suggests that the positive aspects can be capitalised, and the negative ones reduced.


CONCLUSIONS
The key recommendations from this paper are for more evidence to be collected at the country and international level, and for countries to consider trade in health services from a bi-lateral rather than multi-lateral perspective.
13856154
Macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza and associated policies in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda
BACKGROUND
Research has shown the value of conducting a macroeconomic analysis of the impact of influenza pandemics. However, previous modelling applications focus on high-income countries, and there is a lack of evidence concerning the potential impact of an influenza pandemic on lower- and middle-income countries.


OBJECTIVES
To estimate the macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda with particular reference to pandemic (H1N1) 2009.


METHODS
A single-country whole-economy Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was set up for each of the three countries in question and used to estimate the economic impact of declines in labour attributable to morbidity, mortality and school closure.


RESULTS
Overall GDP impacts were less than 1% of GDP for all countries and scenarios. Uganda's losses were proportionally larger than those of Thailand and South Africa. Labour-intensive sectors suffer the largest losses.


CONCLUSION
The economic cost of unavoidable absence in the event of an influenza pandemic could be proportionally larger for low-income countries. The cost of mild pandemics, such as pandemic (H1N1) 2009, appears to be small, but could increase for more severe pandemics and/or pandemics with greater behavioural change and avoidable absence.
24512083
Effects of Perinatal HIV Infection and Associated Risk Factors on Cognitive Development Among Young Children
OBJECTIVE. We examined the effect of HIV, in combination with other important health and social factors, on the development of cognitive abilities of children perinatally exposed to HIV. METHODS. Serial cognitive assessments were performed for 117 children who were infected vertically and 422 children who were exposed to but not infected with HIV, in a multicenter, natural history, longitudinal study. Repeated-measures analyses were used to evaluate the neurocognitive development of children between the ages of 3 and 7 years, as measured by the McCarthy Scales of Children’s Abilities (MSCA). RESULTS. Children with HIV infection and class C status scored significantly lower in all domains of cognitive development, across all time points, than did those who were HIV infected without an AIDS-defining illness and those who were HIV exposed but not infected. There were no significant differences between the 2 latter groups in General Cognitive Index or specific domain scores. Rates of change in cognitive development were comparable (parallel) among all 3 groups over a period of 4 years. Factors that were associated consistently and significantly with lower mean scores were HIV status, number of times an examination had been completed previously, primary language, maternal education, and gender. No factors were related to rate of change of any mean domain score. CONCLUSIONS. An early AIDS-defining illness increased the risk of chronic static encephalopathy during the preschool and early school age years. Children with HIV infection but no class C event performed as well as noninfected children in measures of general cognitive ability. No significantly different profiles of strengths and weaknesses for verbal, perceptual-performance, quantitative, or memory functioning were observed among children with or without HIV infection. A number of factors were found to have significant effects on the mean scores of children in all 3 groups; however, they were not related to the rate at which learning occurred.
205696369
Impact of HIV severity on cognitive and adaptive functioning during childhood and adolescence.
BACKGROUND
The influence of disease severity on cognitive and adaptive functioning in perinatally HIV-infected youth with (PHIV+/C) and without (PHIV+/NoC) a previous AIDS-defining illness (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Class C event), compared with perinatally HIV-exposed but uninfected youth (PHEU) is not well understood.


METHODS
This was a cross-sectional analysis of cognitive and adaptive functioning in PHIV+/C (n = 88), PHIV+/NoC (n = 270) and PHEU (n = 200) youth aged 7-16 years, from a multisite prospective cohort study. Youth and caregivers completed the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children, Fourth Edition and the Adaptive Behavior Assessment System, Second Edition, respectively. We compared means and rates of impairment between groups, and examined associations with other psychosocial factors.


RESULTS
Overall mean scores on measures of cognitive and adaptive functioning were in the low average range for all 3 groups. After adjustment for covariates, mean full-scale intelligence quotient scores were significantly lower for the PHIV+/C group than the PHIV+/NoC and PHEU groups (mean = 77.8 versus 83.4 and 83.3, respectively), whereas no significant differences were observed between the PHEU and PHIV+/NoC groups in any domain. Lower cognitive performance for the PHIV+/C group was primarily attributable to a prior diagnosis of encephalopathy. No significant differences between groups were observed in adaptive functioning.


CONCLUSION
For long-term survivors, youth with HIV infection and a prior Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Class C event have higher risk for cognitive but not adaptive impairment regardless of current health status; this finding appears attributable to a previous diagnosis of encephalopathy. Early preventive therapy may be critical in reducing risk of later neurodevelopmental impairments.
7050862
The placenta, a transducer linking maternal nutrition to adult disease in the offspring?
This month’s Journal carries an article from Shanghai on the regulation of glucose transporters (GLUT) in humanplacenta(1).Thestudiesbringapossiblenewplayer into the ongoing drama of nutritional regulation of fetal growth and development. The in vitro studies by Gao et al. (1) examined the effects of CRH on mRNA and protein concentrations of GLUT1 and GLUT3. Using a variety of techniques, including small interfering RNA for the corticotrophin releasing hormone receptor type 1 (CRH-R1) receptor, antibodies to the receptor, and receptor blockers, the studies convincingly show that CRH stimulates trophoblast production of GLUT1 and inhibits the expression of GLUT3 via the CRH-R1 receptor. The area is of increasing interest as data accumulate that fetal growth is an important determinant of adult health. The Barker hypothesis posits that restricted intrauterine growth associated with the birth of a small infant leads to early onset diabetes, hypertension, and ischemic heart disease (2). This hypothesis is linked to the concept of phenotypic plasticity, a widespread phenomenon in nature whereby the environment interacts with the genome to determine an organism’s phenotype (3). In the setting of intrauterine growth restriction, it is proposed that impaired nutrient transfer to the fetus leads to the development of a metabolic phenotype that is adapted to an environment low in nutrients. The fetus adapted to low nutrients that is then born into a Western society with high-energy diets is maladapted, develops obesity, diabetes, hypertension, and early heart disease. There are strong animal data for this scenario; however, human data are more limited (4). Given the importance of optimizing fetal growth, the pathway to optimal fetal growth becomes of great interest. Unfortunately, this pathway is very poorly characterized. Worldwide, low birth weight is very common, leading to a recent Gates Foundation call for studies on the underlying mechanisms leading to impaired fetal growth (http://www. grandchallenges.org/GCGHDocs/Healthy_Growth_Rules_ and_Guidelines.pdf). Althoughconditions suchaspreeclampsia are well-known associates of impaired growth, there is little knowledge on the etiology of most cases. Major deficiencies in knowledge extend to even what might be the ideal diet for a pregnant woman to produce a healthy baby with an optimum metabolic phenotype for the 21st century. National guidelines for maternal intakes exist, but these are not founded on a sound evidence base of longitudinal studies of infant outcomes (5). Recent research on comparative nutritional intakes of protein, fat, and carbohydrate suggest that all animals have a genetically determined target intake of macronutrients (6). This work strongly suggests that an ideal target intake would exist for pregnant women, but this has not yet been defined. With an ideal maternal intake, the placenta is the port via which this nutrition is transported to the fetus. How exactly this occurs and how it is regulated again remains unclear. Nutrient sensing by the fetus may involve the IGF axis within the fetal liver (7). How is nutrient sensing performed by the placenta on behalf of the fetus? Syncytiotrophoblast expression of GLUT1 is stimulated by placental variant growth hormone, which increases across gestation as does GLUT1; so perhaps again the IGF axis is central (8). How does the placenta determine how much nutrient will be invested in placental growth and how much transferred to the fetus for fetal growth? How does the placenta regulate the nutrient mix it provides to the fetus and is the ideal nutrient mix for the mother the same for the fetus?
35241468
The effect of surgery on plasma beta-endorphin and methionine-enkephalin.
Seven women undergoing abdominal hysterectomy under halothane and nitrous oxide analgesia had plasma samples taken before, during and after surgery for assay of adrenocorticotrophin (ACTH), beta-endorphin, beta-lipotrophin and methionine (Met)-enkephalin immunoreactivity. Plasma ACTH, beta-endorphin and beta-lipotrophin all rose in parallel from the start of surgery and were unaffected by postoperative opiate analgesia. Plasma Met-enkephalin concentrations did not change significantly during the course of the surgery and immediate post-operative period, although the variance of the samples increased at the time of the first skin incision. These data indicate that the stress of surgery and post-operative pain, while producing marked elevations of proopiomelanocortin-derived peptides, are not associated with changes in plasma Met-enkephalin. These data exclude a role for circulating Met-enkephalin in the modulation of surgical pain but do not exclude such a role for beta-endorphin.
4414519
An end to violence
“I should only make myself ridiculous in my own eyes if I clung to life.”*