37194320
The evidential reasoning approach for multi-attribute decision analysis under interval uncertainty
Abstract The evidential reasoning (ER) approach is a method for multiple attribute decision analysis (MADA) under uncertainties. It improves the insightfulness and rationality of a decision making process by using a belief decision matrix (BDM) for problem modelling and the Dempster–Shafer (D–S) theory of evidence for attribute aggregation. The D–S theory provides scope and flexibility to deal with interval uncertainties or local ignorance in decision analysis, which is not explored in the original ER approach and will be investigated in this paper. Firstly, interval uncertainty will be defined and modelled in the ER framework. Then, an extended ER algorithm, IER, is derived, which enables the ER approach to deal with interval uncertainty in assessing alternatives on an attribute. It is proved that the original ER algorithm is a special case of the IER algorithm. The latter is demonstrated using numerical examples.
2868377
Intelligent decision system and its application in business innovation self assessment
In this paper, it is described how a multiple criteria decision analysis software tool, the Intelligent Decision System (IDS), can be used to help business self-assessment. Following a brief outline of a model for assessing business innovation capability and the IDS software, the process of using IDS to implement different types of assessment questions is discussed. It is demonstrated that IDS is a flexible tool capable of handling different types of data in self-assessment, including uncertain and incomplete data, and providing a wide range of information including scores, performance diversity, strength and weakness profile and graphics.
342298
Nonlinear information aggregation via evidential reasoning in multiattribute decision analysis under uncertainty
In many decision situations, it is inevitable to deal with both quantitative and qualitative information under uncertainty. Evidence-based reasoning within a multiple criteria decision analysis framework provides an alternative way of handling such information systematically and consistently. In this paper, the evidential reasoning (ER) approach is introduced, which is based on a recursive ER algorithm that, in essence, constitutes a nonlinear information aggregation process. To facilitate the application of the ER approach and as an indispensable part of its development, the nonlinear features of the ER information aggregation process need to be thoroughly investigated and properly understood. This forms the theme of this paper where the nonlinear features are explored by examining typical reasoning patterns in aggregating harmonic, quasi-harmonic, and contradictory decision information. This analytical investigation provides insights into the recursive nature of the ER approach as well as valuable experience that could be useful to other researchers and practitioners interested in developing and applying operation research/artificial intelligence (OR/AI)-based approaches for decision analysis under uncertainty. The analytical study is complemented by the numerical studies of two application examples. The analysis of a quality assessment problem for motor engines is aimed to show the step-by-step process of implementing the ER approach and to illustrate its nonlinear features in a real-life decision situation. The study of a more complex assessment problem in ship design is intended to demonstrate the potential of the ER approach and its supporting software for dealing with general decision problems.
6114683
The evidential reasoning approach for MADA under both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties
Abstract Many multiple attribute decision analysis (MADA) problems are characterised by both quantitative and qualitative attributes with various types of uncertainties. Incompleteness (or ignorance) and vagueness (or fuzziness) are among the most common uncertainties in decision analysis. The evidential reasoning (ER) approach has been developed in the 1990s and in the recent years to support the solution of MADA problems with ignorance, a kind of probabilistic uncertainty. In this paper, the ER approach is further developed to deal with MADA problems with both probabilistic and fuzzy uncertainties. In this newly developed ER approach, precise data, ignorance and fuzziness are all modelled under the unified framework of a distributed fuzzy belief structure, leading to a fuzzy belief decision matrix. A utility-based grade match method is proposed to transform both numerical data and qualitative (fuzzy) assessment information of various formats into the fuzzy belief structure. A new fuzzy ER algorithm is developed to aggregate multiple attributes using the information contained in the fuzzy belief matrix, resulting in an aggregated fuzzy distributed assessment for each alternative. Different from the existing ER algorithm that is of a recursive nature, the new fuzzy ER algorithm provides an analytical means for combining all attributes without iteration, thus providing scope and flexibility for sensitivity analysis and optimisation. A numerical example is provided to illustrate the detailed implementation process of the new ER approach and its validity and wide applicability.
15674460
A two-stage logarithmic goal programming method for generating weights from interval comparison matrices
A two-stage logarithmic goal programming (TLGP) method is proposed to generate weights from interval comparison matrices, which can be either consistent or inconsistent. The first stage is devised to minimize the inconsistency of interval comparison matrices and the second stage is developed to generate priorities under the condition of minimal inconsistency. The weights are assumed to be multiplicative rather than additive. In the case of hierarchical structures, a nonlinear programming method is used to aggregate local interval weights into global interval weights. A simple yet practical preference ranking method is investigated to compare the interval weights of criteria or rank alternatives in a multiplicative aggregation process. The proposed TLGP is also applicable to fuzzy comparison matrices when they are transformed into interval comparison matrices using @a-level sets and the extension principle. Six numerical examples including a group decision analysis problem with a group of comparison matrices, a hierarchical decision problem and a fuzzy decision problem using fuzzy comparison matrix are examined to show the applications of the proposed methods. Comparisons with other existing procedures are made whenever possible.
17411566
Enabling large-scale multicast simulation by reducing memory requirements
The simulation of large-scale multicast networks often requires a significant amount of memory that can easily exceed the capacity of current computers, both because of the inherently large amount of state necessary to simulate message routing and because of design oversights in the multicast portion of existing simulators. We describe three approaches to substantially reduce the memory required by multicast simulations: 1) We introduce a novel technique called "negative forwarding table" to compress multicast routing state. 2) We aggregate the routing state objects from one replicator per router per group per source to one replicator per router. 3) We employ the NIx-Vector technique to replace the original unicast IP routing table. We implemented these techniques in the ns2 simulator to demonstrate their effectiveness. Our experiments show that these techniques enable packet level multicast simulations on a scale that was previously unachievable on modern workstations using ns2.
7446737
A web-service agent-based decision support system for securities exception management
Abstract With rising trading volumes and increasing risks in securities transactions, the securities industry is making an effort to shorten the trade lifecycle and minimize transaction risks. While attempting to achieve this, exception management is crucial to pass trade information within the trade lifecycle in a timely and accurate fashion. For a competitive solution to exception management, a web-service-agent-based decision support system is developed in this paper. Agent technology is applied to deal with the dynamic, complex, and distributed processes in exception management; web services techniques are proposed for more scalability and interoperability in network-based business environment. By integrating agent technology with web services to make use of the advantages from both, this approach leads to more intelligence, flexibility and collaboration in business exception management. The effectiveness of this approach is evaluated through a use case and demonstration feedback.
7079460
A Formal Architectural Model for Logical Agent Mobility
The process of agent migration is the major difference between logical code mobility of software agents and physical mobility of mobile nodes in ad hoc networks. Without considering agent transfer, it would make little sense to mention the modeling of strong code mobility, which aims to make a migrated agent restarted exactly from the state when it was stopped before migration. From the perspective of system's architecture, this paper proposes a two-layer approach for the formal modeling of logical agent mobility (LAM) using predicate/transition (PrT) nets. We view a mobile agent system as a set of agent spaces and agents could migrate from one space to another. Each agent space is explicitly abstracted to be a component, consisting of an environmental part and an internal connector dynamically binding agents with their environment. We use a system net, agent nets, and a connector net to model the environment, agents, and the connector, respectively. In particular, agent nets are packed up as parts of tokens in system nets, so that agent transfer and location change are naturally captured by transition firing (token game) in Petri nets. Agent nets themselves are active only at specific places and disabled at all the other places in a system net. The semantics of such a two-layer LAM model is defined by transforming it into a PrT net. This facilitates the analysis of several properties about location, state, and connection. In addition, this paper also presents a case study of modeling and analyzing an information retrieval system with mobile agents.
14485762
Modeling and Analyzing Multi-Agent Behaviors Using Predicate/Transition Nets
How agents accomplish a goal task in a multi-agent system is usually specified by multi-agent plans built from basic actions (e.g. operators) of which the agents are capable. The plan specification provides the agents with a shared mental model for how they are supposed to collaborate with each other to achieve the common goal. Making sure that the plans are reliable and fit for the purpose for which they are designed is a critical problem with this approach. To address this problem, this paper presents a formal approach to modeling and analyzing multi-agent behaviors using Predicate/Transition (PrT) nets, a high- level formalism of Petri nets. We model a multi-agent problem by representing agent capabilities as transitions in PrT nets. To analyze a multi-agent PrT model, we adapt the planning graphs as a compact structure for reachability analysis, which is coherent to the concurrent semantics. We also demonstrate that one can analyze whether parallel actions specified in multi-agent plans can be executed in parallel and whether the plans can achieve the goal by analyzing the dependency relations among the transitions in the PrT model.
14517551
Misuse case-based design and analysis of secure software architecture
This paper presents an approach to the architectural design and analysis of secure software systems based on the system requirements elicited in the form of use cases and misuse cases. We identify architectural components and their connections and analyze whether or not a candidate architecture can address security concerns. This provides a smooth transition from requirements specification to high-level design for engineering secure software systems, and greatly improves the traceability of security concerns, which allows a system developer to know what requirement an architectural component references back to. We demonstrate our approach through a case study on a security-intensive hospital information system.