18066304
Macroeconomic impact of a mild influenza pandemic and associated policies in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda: a computable general equilibrium analysis
Background Previous research has demonstrated the value of macroeconomic analysis of the impact of influenza pandemics. However, previous modelling applications focus on high‐income countries and there is a lack of evidence concerning the potential impact of an influenza pandemic on lower‐ and middle‐income countries. Objectives To estimate the macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda with particular reference to pandemic (H1N1) 2009. Methods A single‐country whole‐economy computable general equilibrium (CGE) model was set up for each of the three countries in question and used to estimate the economic impact of declines in labour attributable to morbidity, mortality and school closure. Results Overall GDP impacts were less than 1% of GDP for all countries and scenarios. Uganda's losses were proportionally larger than those of Thailand and South Africa. Labour‐intensive sectors suffer the largest losses. Conclusions The economic cost of unavoidable absence in the event of an influenza pandemic could be proportionally larger for low‐income countries. The cost of mild pandemics, such as pandemic (H1N1) 2009, appears to be small, but could increase for more severe pandemics and/or pandemics with greater behavioural change and avoidable absence.
13856154
Macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza and associated policies in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda
BACKGROUND
Research has shown the value of conducting a macroeconomic analysis of the impact of influenza pandemics. However, previous modelling applications focus on high-income countries, and there is a lack of evidence concerning the potential impact of an influenza pandemic on lower- and middle-income countries.


OBJECTIVES
To estimate the macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda with particular reference to pandemic (H1N1) 2009.


METHODS
A single-country whole-economy Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was set up for each of the three countries in question and used to estimate the economic impact of declines in labour attributable to morbidity, mortality and school closure.


RESULTS
Overall GDP impacts were less than 1% of GDP for all countries and scenarios. Uganda's losses were proportionally larger than those of Thailand and South Africa. Labour-intensive sectors suffer the largest losses.


CONCLUSION
The economic cost of unavoidable absence in the event of an influenza pandemic could be proportionally larger for low-income countries. The cost of mild pandemics, such as pandemic (H1N1) 2009, appears to be small, but could increase for more severe pandemics and/or pandemics with greater behavioural change and avoidable absence.
39397016
The relationship between reliability and size of willingness-to-pay values: a qualitative insight.
In a previous paper, the reliability of willingness-to-pay (WTP) values was found to be an increasing function of the size of WTP expressed. Here, the results of a qualitative exercise conducted alongside this quantitative study are presented. The results of this exercise suggest that higher WTP values may require more thought from the respondent which, in turn, gives them greater stability. At low levels of WTP, values appear to be taken from a 'discretionary account', where expenditure is more volatile. Caveats to this result, and suggestions for future research, are considered in the discussion.
11455466
Trade and health: an agenda for action
The processes of contemporary globalisation are creating ever-closer ties between individuals and populations across different countries. The health of a population, and the systems in place to deliver health care, are affected increasingly by factors beyond the population and health system. The Lancet's Series on trade and health has provided an overview of these links between international trade, trade liberalisation, and health, and raised the key issues that face the health community. In this final paper in the Series, we call for a substantial and sustained effort by those within the health profession to engage with issues of trade, to strengthen institutional capacity in this area, and to place health higher on the agenda of trade negotiations. The rapid rise of trade agreements and treaties, as well as trade that occurs beyond these institutional boundaries, means that further action is required by a range of actors, including WHO, the World Bank, the World Trade Organization (WTO), regional agencies, foundations, national governments, civil society, non-governmental organisations, and academics. The stewardship of a domestic health system in the 21st century requires a sophisticated understanding of how trade affects, and will affect, a country's health system and policy, to optimise opportunities to benefit health and health care while minimising the risks posed though the assertion of health goals in trade policy. To acheive this will place a premium on all those engaged in health to understand the importance of trade and to engage with their counterparts involved in trade and trade policy. We hope that this Series has prompted the reader to become involved in these efforts.
23464544
A macroeconomic approach to evaluating policies to contain antimicrobial resistance
BackgroundAntimicrobial resistance (AMR) is, at least in part, associated with high antimicrobial usage and causes increased morbidity, mortality and healthcare costs. However, policies to contain AMR focus on ‘micro’ interventions — typically in one institution (usually a hospital). Furthermore, in evaluating these interventions, economists tend to concentrate on the economic impact to the healthcare sector alone, which may give an incorrect estimation of the social costs and benefits of a disease or intervention.MethodsThis study outlines and illustrates a macroeconomic approach to tackling AMR through the evaluation of three ‘macro’ policies: regulation, permits and taxes/charges. In addition to effects on the healthcare sector, the effect of AMR (and these three policies to contain it) on labour productivity, GDP, household income, government transfers, tax revenues, unemployment, inflation and social services are estimated for the UK using the specific context of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA).ResultsAMR is likely to have a far greater impact on the national economy than would be estimated by concentrating on the healthcare sector alone.ConclusionThe permit system appears to offer the most efficient ‘solution’ to optimising antimicrobial consumption and, hence, reducing the development of resistance.
7096884
Foreign direct investment and trade in health services: a review of the literature.
Globalization is a key challenge facing health policy-makers. A significant aspect of this is direct trade in health services, a result of the rise of transnational corporations, challenges in health care financing, porous borders and improved technology creating the scope for increased 'foreign direct investment' (FDI) in health care. This has gathered momentum with the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS), which aims to further liberalize trade in services, and within which FDI has been noted as perhaps the most critical area for trade negotiation. Given the rapid development of this area, there are little empirical data. This paper therefore seeks to provide the first comprehensive and systematic review of evidence concerning FDI and health services. This process included electronic bibliographic database searches, website searches and correspondence with experts in the area of trade in health services, from which 76 papers, books and reports were reviewed. Perhaps due to the rapid developments in this area, most of the literature is speculative, polarized between those arguing for the benefits of liberalization and those arguing against. However, there seem to be three issues which emerge as of most importance: (i) the extent to which a national health system is commercialized per se is of more significance than whether investment in it is foreign or domestic; (ii) the national regulatory environment and its 'strength' will significantly determine the economic and health impact of FDI, the effectiveness of safeguard measures, and the stability of GATS commitments; and (iii) any negotiations will depend upon parties having a common understanding of what is being negotiated, and the interpretation of key definitions is thus critical. Each of these issues is explored in some depth, with the overall conclusion that countries should take a step back and first think through the risks and benefits of commercialization of their health sector, rather than being sidetracked in to considering the level of foreign investment.
23578107
Synaptic dysfunction in Huntington’s disease: a new perspective
Abstract.Huntington’s disease (HD) is caused by a polyglutamine expansion in the protein huntingtin and is characterized by intraneuronal inclusions and widespread neuronal death at the late stage of the disease. In research, most of the emphasis has been on understanding the cell death and its mechanisms. Until recently, it was believed that the vast majority, if not all, of the symptoms in HD are a direct consequence of neurodegeneration. However, increasing evidence shows that subtle alterations in synaptic function could underlie the early symptoms. It is of particular interest to understand the nature of this neuronal dysfunction. Normal huntingtin interacts with various cytoskeletal and synaptic vesicle proteins that are essential for exocytosis and endocytosis. Altered interactions of mutant huntingtin with its associated partners could contribute to abnormal synaptic transmission in HD. This review describes recent advances in understanding synaptic dysfunction in HD.
11517691
Pathological interactions with the timing of birth and uterine activation.
The physiological processes that regulate the onset of parturition and birth are slowly being elucidated, and the points at which pathology can intervene are becoming more apparent. The data support the view that multiple pathways lead to myometrial activation. The clinical corollary is that combinations of tocolytics that operate via different mechanisms may be more effective than single agents. It may also be necessary to divide preterm labour into groups based on underlying mechanisms and to tailor therapy accordingly.
19567920
The effect of repetitive haemorrhage on plasma cortisol, beta-endorphin and N-terminal pro-opiomelanocortin in conscious sheep.
We measured the effect of repeated haemorrhagic stress, performed on four consecutive days in conscious adult sheep, on the plasma concentrations of cortisol and ACTH-related peptides to determine whether the pituitary-adrenal response was altered by stress repetition. Peptides from the C-terminus of the ACTH pro-hormone was measured by beta-endorphin RIA. Glycopeptides derived from the N-terminus of the ACTH pro-hormone were measured by tau 3-MSH RIA. The immunoreactive tau 3-MSH in sheep plasma was found to have an apparent molecular weight of approximately 10,000 by gel chromatography through Sephadex G-75, which is similar to the size of the major circulating form of pro-tau-MSH found in human and rat plasma. Daily haemorrhage consistently elevated plasma concentrations of cortisol and pro-tau-MSH. There was no significant difference in the daily responses of either cortisol or pro-tau-MSH when considered individually. However, there was a significant change over the four days in the relationship between the cortisol and pro-tau-MSH responses, as judged by analysis of variance of the difference in daily z-scores of cortisol and pro-tau-MSH. This trend indicated a relative increase in the secretion of pro-tau-MSH from the pituitary compared to the cortisol response, and suggested that repeated exposure to stressful stimuli may alter the pituitary-adrenal-axis.
37781778
[Free radicals and ailing proteins--the culprits behind Parkinson disease?].
Parkinson's disease is one of the most common neurodegenerative diseases, and affects approximately 1% of the population over 65 years of age. Many different insults appear to be involved in the etiology of the disease, among them environmental toxins and mitochondrial dysfunction. During the past five years, mutations in five different genes have been linked to rare, familial forms of Parkinson's disease. One of the mutated proteins, alpha-synuclein is normally implicated in synaptic plasticity and vesicle function. Dysfunction of this protein might lead to increased cytoplasmic dopamine levels. Since cytoplasmic dopamine is readily prone to autooxidation and enzymatic degradation--processes which generate reactive oxygen species--failure to properly store dopamine into vesicles might lead to oxidative stress. Indeed, nigral tissue from idiopathic Parkinson's disease patients shows signs of oxidative damage. In this article we propose that dopamine-induced oxidative stress might be a common final pathway in the pathogenesis of the disease.
205696369
Impact of HIV severity on cognitive and adaptive functioning during childhood and adolescence.
BACKGROUND
The influence of disease severity on cognitive and adaptive functioning in perinatally HIV-infected youth with (PHIV+/C) and without (PHIV+/NoC) a previous AIDS-defining illness (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Class C event), compared with perinatally HIV-exposed but uninfected youth (PHEU) is not well understood.


METHODS
This was a cross-sectional analysis of cognitive and adaptive functioning in PHIV+/C (n = 88), PHIV+/NoC (n = 270) and PHEU (n = 200) youth aged 7-16 years, from a multisite prospective cohort study. Youth and caregivers completed the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children, Fourth Edition and the Adaptive Behavior Assessment System, Second Edition, respectively. We compared means and rates of impairment between groups, and examined associations with other psychosocial factors.


RESULTS
Overall mean scores on measures of cognitive and adaptive functioning were in the low average range for all 3 groups. After adjustment for covariates, mean full-scale intelligence quotient scores were significantly lower for the PHIV+/C group than the PHIV+/NoC and PHEU groups (mean = 77.8 versus 83.4 and 83.3, respectively), whereas no significant differences were observed between the PHEU and PHIV+/NoC groups in any domain. Lower cognitive performance for the PHIV+/C group was primarily attributable to a prior diagnosis of encephalopathy. No significant differences between groups were observed in adaptive functioning.


CONCLUSION
For long-term survivors, youth with HIV infection and a prior Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Class C event have higher risk for cognitive but not adaptive impairment regardless of current health status; this finding appears attributable to a previous diagnosis of encephalopathy. Early preventive therapy may be critical in reducing risk of later neurodevelopmental impairments.