8297391
Assessing the macroeconomic impact of a healthcare problem: the application of computable general equilibrium analysis to antimicrobial resistance.
There is a positive relationship between the health of a nation and its economic prosperity. However, in evaluating health care, economists typically concentrate on the economic impact only to the health (care) sector, which may mis-specify the social costs and benefits of a disease or intervention. This paper demonstrates the value of using a macroeconomic approach to modelling a major health problem, using the context of antimicrobial resistance and the application of the computable general equilibrium technique. This approach is described in detail and its 'added value' demonstrated in the case of AMR.
39397016
The relationship between reliability and size of willingness-to-pay values: a qualitative insight.
In a previous paper, the reliability of willingness-to-pay (WTP) values was found to be an increasing function of the size of WTP expressed. Here, the results of a qualitative exercise conducted alongside this quantitative study are presented. The results of this exercise suggest that higher WTP values may require more thought from the respondent which, in turn, gives them greater stability. At low levels of WTP, values appear to be taken from a 'discretionary account', where expenditure is more volatile. Caveats to this result, and suggestions for future research, are considered in the discussion.
7096884
Foreign direct investment and trade in health services: a review of the literature.
Globalization is a key challenge facing health policy-makers. A significant aspect of this is direct trade in health services, a result of the rise of transnational corporations, challenges in health care financing, porous borders and improved technology creating the scope for increased 'foreign direct investment' (FDI) in health care. This has gathered momentum with the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS), which aims to further liberalize trade in services, and within which FDI has been noted as perhaps the most critical area for trade negotiation. Given the rapid development of this area, there are little empirical data. This paper therefore seeks to provide the first comprehensive and systematic review of evidence concerning FDI and health services. This process included electronic bibliographic database searches, website searches and correspondence with experts in the area of trade in health services, from which 76 papers, books and reports were reviewed. Perhaps due to the rapid developments in this area, most of the literature is speculative, polarized between those arguing for the benefits of liberalization and those arguing against. However, there seem to be three issues which emerge as of most importance: (i) the extent to which a national health system is commercialized per se is of more significance than whether investment in it is foreign or domestic; (ii) the national regulatory environment and its 'strength' will significantly determine the economic and health impact of FDI, the effectiveness of safeguard measures, and the stability of GATS commitments; and (iii) any negotiations will depend upon parties having a common understanding of what is being negotiated, and the interpretation of key definitions is thus critical. Each of these issues is explored in some depth, with the overall conclusion that countries should take a step back and first think through the risks and benefits of commercialization of their health sector, rather than being sidetracked in to considering the level of foreign investment.
18066304
Macroeconomic impact of a mild influenza pandemic and associated policies in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda: a computable general equilibrium analysis
Background Previous research has demonstrated the value of macroeconomic analysis of the impact of influenza pandemics. However, previous modelling applications focus on high‐income countries and there is a lack of evidence concerning the potential impact of an influenza pandemic on lower‐ and middle‐income countries. Objectives To estimate the macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda with particular reference to pandemic (H1N1) 2009. Methods A single‐country whole‐economy computable general equilibrium (CGE) model was set up for each of the three countries in question and used to estimate the economic impact of declines in labour attributable to morbidity, mortality and school closure. Results Overall GDP impacts were less than 1% of GDP for all countries and scenarios. Uganda's losses were proportionally larger than those of Thailand and South Africa. Labour‐intensive sectors suffer the largest losses. Conclusions The economic cost of unavoidable absence in the event of an influenza pandemic could be proportionally larger for low‐income countries. The cost of mild pandemics, such as pandemic (H1N1) 2009, appears to be small, but could increase for more severe pandemics and/or pandemics with greater behavioural change and avoidable absence.
26796548
Medical tourism: a review of the literature and analysis of a role for bi-lateral trade.
OBJECTIVES
With increasing globalization, many countries are considering opening their health systems to greater cross-border movement of patients. This is usually done from the viewpoint of a multi-lateral trade relationship. This paper considers the issues that arise from this debate from a bi-lateral perspective.


METHODS
A systematic literature review was carried out on 'Medical Tourism' from the perspective of a bi-lateral trade relationship, using the UK and India as a case study.


RESULTS
There is a dearth of data and discussion on such bi-lateral trade. This limited evidence offers some suggestions. Exporting countries may benefit from medical tourism by generating foreign exchange and reversing the brain drain, but run the risk of creating a dual system, where the local population is crowded out. Importing countries can benefit from alleviating waiting lists and lowering healthcare costs, but may risk quality of care and legal liability. However, evidence from a bi-lateral perspective suggests that the positive aspects can be capitalised, and the negative ones reduced.


CONCLUSIONS
The key recommendations from this paper are for more evidence to be collected at the country and international level, and for countries to consider trade in health services from a bi-lateral rather than multi-lateral perspective.
13856154
Macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza and associated policies in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda
BACKGROUND
Research has shown the value of conducting a macroeconomic analysis of the impact of influenza pandemics. However, previous modelling applications focus on high-income countries, and there is a lack of evidence concerning the potential impact of an influenza pandemic on lower- and middle-income countries.


OBJECTIVES
To estimate the macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda with particular reference to pandemic (H1N1) 2009.


METHODS
A single-country whole-economy Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was set up for each of the three countries in question and used to estimate the economic impact of declines in labour attributable to morbidity, mortality and school closure.


RESULTS
Overall GDP impacts were less than 1% of GDP for all countries and scenarios. Uganda's losses were proportionally larger than those of Thailand and South Africa. Labour-intensive sectors suffer the largest losses.


CONCLUSION
The economic cost of unavoidable absence in the event of an influenza pandemic could be proportionally larger for low-income countries. The cost of mild pandemics, such as pandemic (H1N1) 2009, appears to be small, but could increase for more severe pandemics and/or pandemics with greater behavioural change and avoidable absence.
3109318
A general model for continuous noninvasive pulmonary artery pressure estimation
Elevated pulmonary artery pressure (PAP) is a significant healthcare risk. Continuous monitoring for patients with elevated PAP is crucial for effective treatment, yet the most accurate method is invasive and expensive, and cannot be performed repeatedly. Noninvasive methods exist but are somewhat inaccurate, expensive, and cannot be used for continuous monitoring. We present a machine learning model based on heart sounds that estimates pulmonary artery pressure with enough accuracy to exclude an invasive diagnostic operation, allowing for consistent monitoring of heart condition in suspect patients without the cost and risk of invasive monitoring. We conduct a greedy search through 38 possible features using a 109-patient cross-validation to find the most predictive features. Our best general model has a standard estimate of error (SEE) of 8.3mmHg, which outperforms the previous best performance in the literature on a general set of unseen patient data.
11713706
Effect of liver and renal dysfunction on circulating methionine-enkephalin immunoreactivity
Plasma methionine-enkephalin (Met-Enk) immunoreactivity has been determined in 24 patients with varying degrees of renal impairment and 14 patients with hepatic failure. Plasma Met-Enk immunoreactivity correlated inversely with creatinine clearance (r = -0.71, P less than 0.001) but was not affected by even severe hepatic failure in the absence of renal impairment. In two patients, with renal failure and elevated plasma prolactin, administration of naloxone (16 mg) had no effect on circulating prolactin concentrations. These studies indicate that the kidney has a major role in Met-Enk metabolism while the liver does not, and further suggest that elevated circulating endogenous opiates are not responsible for the increased production of prolactin found in renal failure.
24512083
Effects of Perinatal HIV Infection and Associated Risk Factors on Cognitive Development Among Young Children
OBJECTIVE. We examined the effect of HIV, in combination with other important health and social factors, on the development of cognitive abilities of children perinatally exposed to HIV. METHODS. Serial cognitive assessments were performed for 117 children who were infected vertically and 422 children who were exposed to but not infected with HIV, in a multicenter, natural history, longitudinal study. Repeated-measures analyses were used to evaluate the neurocognitive development of children between the ages of 3 and 7 years, as measured by the McCarthy Scales of Children’s Abilities (MSCA). RESULTS. Children with HIV infection and class C status scored significantly lower in all domains of cognitive development, across all time points, than did those who were HIV infected without an AIDS-defining illness and those who were HIV exposed but not infected. There were no significant differences between the 2 latter groups in General Cognitive Index or specific domain scores. Rates of change in cognitive development were comparable (parallel) among all 3 groups over a period of 4 years. Factors that were associated consistently and significantly with lower mean scores were HIV status, number of times an examination had been completed previously, primary language, maternal education, and gender. No factors were related to rate of change of any mean domain score. CONCLUSIONS. An early AIDS-defining illness increased the risk of chronic static encephalopathy during the preschool and early school age years. Children with HIV infection but no class C event performed as well as noninfected children in measures of general cognitive ability. No significantly different profiles of strengths and weaknesses for verbal, perceptual-performance, quantitative, or memory functioning were observed among children with or without HIV infection. A number of factors were found to have significant effects on the mean scores of children in all 3 groups; however, they were not related to the rate at which learning occurred.
19567920
The effect of repetitive haemorrhage on plasma cortisol, beta-endorphin and N-terminal pro-opiomelanocortin in conscious sheep.
We measured the effect of repeated haemorrhagic stress, performed on four consecutive days in conscious adult sheep, on the plasma concentrations of cortisol and ACTH-related peptides to determine whether the pituitary-adrenal response was altered by stress repetition. Peptides from the C-terminus of the ACTH pro-hormone was measured by beta-endorphin RIA. Glycopeptides derived from the N-terminus of the ACTH pro-hormone were measured by tau 3-MSH RIA. The immunoreactive tau 3-MSH in sheep plasma was found to have an apparent molecular weight of approximately 10,000 by gel chromatography through Sephadex G-75, which is similar to the size of the major circulating form of pro-tau-MSH found in human and rat plasma. Daily haemorrhage consistently elevated plasma concentrations of cortisol and pro-tau-MSH. There was no significant difference in the daily responses of either cortisol or pro-tau-MSH when considered individually. However, there was a significant change over the four days in the relationship between the cortisol and pro-tau-MSH responses, as judged by analysis of variance of the difference in daily z-scores of cortisol and pro-tau-MSH. This trend indicated a relative increase in the secretion of pro-tau-MSH from the pituitary compared to the cortisol response, and suggested that repeated exposure to stressful stimuli may alter the pituitary-adrenal-axis.
11517691
Pathological interactions with the timing of birth and uterine activation.
The physiological processes that regulate the onset of parturition and birth are slowly being elucidated, and the points at which pathology can intervene are becoming more apparent. The data support the view that multiple pathways lead to myometrial activation. The clinical corollary is that combinations of tocolytics that operate via different mechanisms may be more effective than single agents. It may also be necessary to divide preterm labour into groups based on underlying mechanisms and to tailor therapy accordingly.