11081915
Estimating the economic impact of pandemic influenza: An application of the computable general equilibrium model to the UK

 Abstract
 
 There is concern regarding the impact that a global infectious disease pandemic might have, especially the economic impact in the current financial climate. However, preparedness planning concentrates more upon population health and maintaining a functioning health sector than on the wider economic impact. We developed a single country Computable General Equilibrium model to estimate the economic impact of pandemic influenza (PI) and associated policies. While the context for this development was the United Kingdom, there are lessons to be drawn for application of this methodology, as well as indicative results, to other contexts.
 Disease scenarios were constructed from an epidemiological model which estimated case fatality rates (mild, moderate and severe) as 0.06%, 0.18% and 0.35%. A clinical attack rate of 35% was also used to produce influenza scenarios, together with preparedness policies, including antivirals and school closure, and the possible prophylactic absence of workers.
 UK cost estimates (in Sterling) are presented, together with relative percentage impacts applicable to similar large economies. Percentage/cost estimates suggest PI would reduce GDP by 0.3% (£3.5bn), 0.4% (£5bn) and 0.6% (£7.4bn) respectively for the three disease scenarios. However, the impact of PI itself is smaller than disease mitigation policies: combining school closure with prophylactic absenteeism yields percentage/cost effects of 1.1% (£14.7bn), 1.3% (£16.3bn) and 1.4% (£18.5bn) respectively for the three scenarios. Sensitivity analysis shows little variability with changes in disease parameters but notable changes with variations in school closure and prophylactic absenteeism. The most severe sensitivity scenario results in a 2.9% (£37.4bn), 3.2% (£41.4bn) and 3.7% (£47.5bn) loss to GDP respectively for the three scenarios.
 

18066304
Macroeconomic impact of a mild influenza pandemic and associated policies in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda: a computable general equilibrium analysis
Background Previous research has demonstrated the value of macroeconomic analysis of the impact of influenza pandemics. However, previous modelling applications focus on high‐income countries and there is a lack of evidence concerning the potential impact of an influenza pandemic on lower‐ and middle‐income countries. Objectives To estimate the macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda with particular reference to pandemic (H1N1) 2009. Methods A single‐country whole‐economy computable general equilibrium (CGE) model was set up for each of the three countries in question and used to estimate the economic impact of declines in labour attributable to morbidity, mortality and school closure. Results Overall GDP impacts were less than 1% of GDP for all countries and scenarios. Uganda's losses were proportionally larger than those of Thailand and South Africa. Labour‐intensive sectors suffer the largest losses. Conclusions The economic cost of unavoidable absence in the event of an influenza pandemic could be proportionally larger for low‐income countries. The cost of mild pandemics, such as pandemic (H1N1) 2009, appears to be small, but could increase for more severe pandemics and/or pandemics with greater behavioural change and avoidable absence.
26796548
Medical tourism: a review of the literature and analysis of a role for bi-lateral trade.
OBJECTIVES
With increasing globalization, many countries are considering opening their health systems to greater cross-border movement of patients. This is usually done from the viewpoint of a multi-lateral trade relationship. This paper considers the issues that arise from this debate from a bi-lateral perspective.


METHODS
A systematic literature review was carried out on 'Medical Tourism' from the perspective of a bi-lateral trade relationship, using the UK and India as a case study.


RESULTS
There is a dearth of data and discussion on such bi-lateral trade. This limited evidence offers some suggestions. Exporting countries may benefit from medical tourism by generating foreign exchange and reversing the brain drain, but run the risk of creating a dual system, where the local population is crowded out. Importing countries can benefit from alleviating waiting lists and lowering healthcare costs, but may risk quality of care and legal liability. However, evidence from a bi-lateral perspective suggests that the positive aspects can be capitalised, and the negative ones reduced.


CONCLUSIONS
The key recommendations from this paper are for more evidence to be collected at the country and international level, and for countries to consider trade in health services from a bi-lateral rather than multi-lateral perspective.
23464544
A macroeconomic approach to evaluating policies to contain antimicrobial resistance
BackgroundAntimicrobial resistance (AMR) is, at least in part, associated with high antimicrobial usage and causes increased morbidity, mortality and healthcare costs. However, policies to contain AMR focus on ‘micro’ interventions — typically in one institution (usually a hospital). Furthermore, in evaluating these interventions, economists tend to concentrate on the economic impact to the healthcare sector alone, which may give an incorrect estimation of the social costs and benefits of a disease or intervention.MethodsThis study outlines and illustrates a macroeconomic approach to tackling AMR through the evaluation of three ‘macro’ policies: regulation, permits and taxes/charges. In addition to effects on the healthcare sector, the effect of AMR (and these three policies to contain it) on labour productivity, GDP, household income, government transfers, tax revenues, unemployment, inflation and social services are estimated for the UK using the specific context of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA).ResultsAMR is likely to have a far greater impact on the national economy than would be estimated by concentrating on the healthcare sector alone.ConclusionThe permit system appears to offer the most efficient ‘solution’ to optimising antimicrobial consumption and, hence, reducing the development of resistance.
39979651
Measuring the globalization of health services: a possible index of openness of country health sectors to trade.
Globalization is a key challenge facing health policy-makers. A significant aspect of this is trade in health services. However, little is currently known about how trade in health services will affect the health of populations and national economies. A key determinant of the impact of trade in health services will be the general economic and trade context of the country concerned. One specific aspect of this is the 'openness' of a country's health sector to trade; yet there is little, if anything, currently known about the most appropriate methods to assess openness of the health sector.
11455466
Trade and health: an agenda for action
The processes of contemporary globalisation are creating ever-closer ties between individuals and populations across different countries. The health of a population, and the systems in place to deliver health care, are affected increasingly by factors beyond the population and health system. The Lancet's Series on trade and health has provided an overview of these links between international trade, trade liberalisation, and health, and raised the key issues that face the health community. In this final paper in the Series, we call for a substantial and sustained effort by those within the health profession to engage with issues of trade, to strengthen institutional capacity in this area, and to place health higher on the agenda of trade negotiations. The rapid rise of trade agreements and treaties, as well as trade that occurs beyond these institutional boundaries, means that further action is required by a range of actors, including WHO, the World Bank, the World Trade Organization (WTO), regional agencies, foundations, national governments, civil society, non-governmental organisations, and academics. The stewardship of a domestic health system in the 21st century requires a sophisticated understanding of how trade affects, and will affect, a country's health system and policy, to optimise opportunities to benefit health and health care while minimising the risks posed though the assertion of health goals in trade policy. To acheive this will place a premium on all those engaged in health to understand the importance of trade and to engage with their counterparts involved in trade and trade policy. We hope that this Series has prompted the reader to become involved in these efforts.
3109318
A general model for continuous noninvasive pulmonary artery pressure estimation
Elevated pulmonary artery pressure (PAP) is a significant healthcare risk. Continuous monitoring for patients with elevated PAP is crucial for effective treatment, yet the most accurate method is invasive and expensive, and cannot be performed repeatedly. Noninvasive methods exist but are somewhat inaccurate, expensive, and cannot be used for continuous monitoring. We present a machine learning model based on heart sounds that estimates pulmonary artery pressure with enough accuracy to exclude an invasive diagnostic operation, allowing for consistent monitoring of heart condition in suspect patients without the cost and risk of invasive monitoring. We conduct a greedy search through 38 possible features using a 109-patient cross-validation to find the most predictive features. Our best general model has a standard estimate of error (SEE) of 8.3mmHg, which outperforms the previous best performance in the literature on a general set of unseen patient data.
11517691
Pathological interactions with the timing of birth and uterine activation.
The physiological processes that regulate the onset of parturition and birth are slowly being elucidated, and the points at which pathology can intervene are becoming more apparent. The data support the view that multiple pathways lead to myometrial activation. The clinical corollary is that combinations of tocolytics that operate via different mechanisms may be more effective than single agents. It may also be necessary to divide preterm labour into groups based on underlying mechanisms and to tailor therapy accordingly.
24512083
Effects of Perinatal HIV Infection and Associated Risk Factors on Cognitive Development Among Young Children
OBJECTIVE. We examined the effect of HIV, in combination with other important health and social factors, on the development of cognitive abilities of children perinatally exposed to HIV. METHODS. Serial cognitive assessments were performed for 117 children who were infected vertically and 422 children who were exposed to but not infected with HIV, in a multicenter, natural history, longitudinal study. Repeated-measures analyses were used to evaluate the neurocognitive development of children between the ages of 3 and 7 years, as measured by the McCarthy Scales of Children’s Abilities (MSCA). RESULTS. Children with HIV infection and class C status scored significantly lower in all domains of cognitive development, across all time points, than did those who were HIV infected without an AIDS-defining illness and those who were HIV exposed but not infected. There were no significant differences between the 2 latter groups in General Cognitive Index or specific domain scores. Rates of change in cognitive development were comparable (parallel) among all 3 groups over a period of 4 years. Factors that were associated consistently and significantly with lower mean scores were HIV status, number of times an examination had been completed previously, primary language, maternal education, and gender. No factors were related to rate of change of any mean domain score. CONCLUSIONS. An early AIDS-defining illness increased the risk of chronic static encephalopathy during the preschool and early school age years. Children with HIV infection but no class C event performed as well as noninfected children in measures of general cognitive ability. No significantly different profiles of strengths and weaknesses for verbal, perceptual-performance, quantitative, or memory functioning were observed among children with or without HIV infection. A number of factors were found to have significant effects on the mean scores of children in all 3 groups; however, they were not related to the rate at which learning occurred.
17250985
Loss of SNAP-25 and rabphilin 3a in sensory-motor cortex in Huntington's disease.
Huntington's disease (HD) is an autosomal dominant neurodegenerative disorder caused by a CAG-expansion in the gene encoding the protein huntingtin. The disease is characterized by progressive motor disturbances, cognitive defects, dementia, and weight loss. Using western blotting and immunohistochemistry we have assessed the expression levels and patterns of a number of proteins involved in neurotransmitter release in post-mortem frontal cortex samples from 10 HD cases with different disease grades. We report a loss of the soluble N-ethylmaleimide-sensitive factor attachment protein receptor (SNARE) protein, synaptosome-associated protein 25 (SNAP 25) in HD brains of grades I-IV. Moreover, in brains of grade III and IV we found a reduction in rabphilin 3a, a protein involved in vesicle docking and recycling. These losses appear to be specific and not due to a general loss of synapses in the HD cortex. Thus, levels of synaptobrevin II, syntaxin 1, rab3a or synaptophysin are unaltered in the same patient samples. SNAP 25 and rabphilin 3a are crucial for neurotransmitter release. Therefore, we suggest that a deficient pre-synaptic transmitter release may underlie some of the symptoms of HD.
3424059
Alterations in the hypothalamic pituitary adrenal axis during pregnancy and the placental clock that determines the length of parturition.
Although corticotrophin releasing hormone (CRH) was initially identified as a hypothalamic peptide it is also synthesised in the placenta and secreted into both the maternal and fetal circulation. The presence of large molecular weight forms in the placenta suggest that secretion may be constitutive rather that regulated. Placental CRH is bioactive but causes only modest increases in ACTH and cortisol in the pregnant woman because of agonist induced desensitisation of pituitary CRH receptors. CRH concentrations increase exponentially in maternal plasma as gestation advances. Elevated concentrations, compared with gestational age matched controls, occur in patients in preterm labour. The exponential curve describing the CRH increase is shifted to the left in women who will subsequently deliver preterm and to the right in women who will deliver post dates indicating that CRH is linked to a placental clock which determines the length of gestation. Maternal plasma CRH concentrations may be useful in identifying women at high risk of preterm delivery and CRH antagonists may prevent preterm labour. As significant CRH production by the placenta is restricted to primates future research must take into account the species specificity of the mechanisms regulating parturition.