A Critique of Planning Models for Postsecondary Education Current Feasibility, Potential Relevance, and a Prospectus for Further Research*
This paper reviews recent research and policy analysis in the area of postsecondary education, concluding that (1) the biases inherent in the prevailing system of research support encourage analytical excesses which obfuscate the inadequacy of existing knowledge; (2) the major historicalforces impinging on the postsecondary education system will create fundamental strains, resulting in a dramatic recasting of important policy issues; (3) in light of these forces and of the knowledge required to deal with the realities of the emerging future, previous research is of very limited relevance; and (4) if previous research is of limited usefulness, then large-scale sectoral models (specifically, the NCHEMS Federal Planning Model and the NCFPE Postsecondary Education Financing Model) which purport to integrate existing knowledge into a coherent characterization of the larger system at best provide only the appearance of rationality to policy action.