Cyclone Center: Can Citizen Scientists Improve Tropical Cyclone Intensity Records?
AbstractThe global tropical cyclone (TC) intensity record, even in modern times, is uncertain because the vast majority of storms are only observed remotely. Forecasters determine the maximum wind speed using a patchwork of sporadic observations and remotely sensed data. A popular tool that aids forecasters is the Dvorak technique—a procedural system that estimates the maximum wind based on cloud features in IR and/or visible satellite imagery. Inherently, the application of the Dvorak procedure is open to subjectivity. Heterogeneities are also introduced into the historical record with the evolution of operational procedures, personnel, and observing platforms. These uncertainties impede our ability to identify the relationship between tropical cyclone intensities and, for example, recent climate change.A global reanalysis of TC intensity using experts is difficult because of the large number of storms. We will show that it is possible to effectively reanalyze the global record using crowdsourcing. Throu...