stochastic Impacts on Farming: V. Risk Adjustment Through Conservation Planning
PRACTICAL application of seasonal risk analysis for soil conservation planning is illustrated. Applicability is demonstrated by quantifying potential reduction in soil loss through seasonal adjustment of agronomic practice. The method is dependent upon seasonally continuous probability distributions developed earlier. The erosion index (EI) and the cover and management factor (C) of the Universal Soil Loss Equation were selected to quantify soil loss calculations. By randomizing these two variates soil loss by both seasonal pattern and annual total was simulated for 12 different agronomic practices. Reduction of soil loss was expressed in terms of expectation (risk) and in terms of variability of that expectation (uncertainty). Utilizing the simulated soil losses the utility of incorporating seasonal variability in management options to facilitate conservation planning is demonstrated.