Short-Term Climate Variations: Recent Accomplishments and Issues for Future Progress
A short nontechnical review of the El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and the associated teleconnections to higher latitudes is given. ENSO has been shown to be predictable to some degree for over a year ahead, which therefore provides a basis for skillful prediction of interannual variations in climate. The processes involved are emphasized in order to highlight the areas where future research may most profitably be directed to improve climate forecasts. This progress has been realized through the successful completion of the Tropical Oceans Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Program of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP), which has established and maintained the TOGA Observing System, developed coupled atmosphere–ocean models of the tropical Pacific Ocean, demonstrated the predictive capabilities noted above, and conducted field programs to further the understanding of physical processes. Future research will take place in the context of a developing infrastructure associated with operational cl...