Contingency, Catalysts, and International System Change
Wars, revolutions, and depressions change the world and the way in which we think about it. World War I was a seminal event in both respects. It ushered in a profound transformation of the international system, and is described by many historians as the crucible in which the twentieth century was shaped. It has also been a critical case for the generation and testing of theories about conflict and international relations more generally. Many historians contend that World War I-or something like it-would have been very hard, if not impossible, to avoid. The distinguished British historian, F. H. Hinsley, insisted, "If the Sarajevo crisis had not precipitated a particular great war, some other crisis would have precipitated a great war at no distant date."1 Neorealisfs and power transition theorists make similar claims, albeit for different reasons.2 I do not doubt that many, perhaps most of the causes of war in 1914 that historians and political scientists have identified created a conflict-prone environment. But underlying causes, no matter how numerous or deep-seated, do not make an event inevitable. Their consequences