A land systems science approach to assessing forest governance and characterizing the emergence of social forestry in the Western Cascades of Oregon
National forests in theUnited States are undergoing a spatially and temporally uneven governance transition in response toCongressional policies, agencymandates, and social and economic pressures, withmanymoving from awholly state-led ‘dominant federal’model to amore collaborative networked governancemodel whichwe refer to as ‘social forestry’.While the broad contours of this transition have been observed and studied previously, there have been few attempts to characterize it using quantitative, qualitative, or geospatialmethods.Here, we combine a novel remote sensing-based methodwith qualitative social science research to understand the emergence of social forestry and its implications for land use/land cover change associatedwith implementation of theNorthwest Forest Plan (NWFP) in theWesternCascades ofOregon.We linked time-series satellite datawith forest inventory data to track patterns of timber harvest at scales commensurate with timbermanagement decision-making.We then compared these patterns to policy-based expectations.We found a significant disconnect betweenNWFPpolicy and actual timber harvest patterns, raising questions about the effectiveness of theNWFP land use allocation system and the ‘land sparing’ approach to managing tensions between conservation and production. Qualitative research, including semistructured interviewswith federal agency personnel and local stakeholders, shed light on the causal mechanisms and reciprocal relationships driving spatial patterns of timber harvesting, whichwe discuss in terms of the emergence of social forestry involving complex, place-based negotiations between the federal government and local veto actors advocating for conservation. Findings have implications forUS Forest Service public engagement strategies and efforts to establish zones of agreement regarding timber harvesting, as well as broader discussions about the agency’s future.