By-product data and forecasting in unemployment insurance.
Abstract The unemployment insurance program has been operating in this country since the beginning of 1938. There have been many growing pains during these first eleven years. The operating problems involved in setting up this vast program have left little time thus far for careful consideration of the statistical data that are automatically produced in the course of its operations. These data, now and in the future, can be a fruitful source of information on changes in economic activities. The comprehensive nature of these data, covering every city and county, giving information by detailed sub-industry, and yielding statistics for each week and month, makes it possible to test various theories of the business cycle, and may, as a result of careful analysis, reveal interrelationships among economic variables that are now unsuspected. The data described in this paper are collected by all the state unemployment insurance agencies as part of their operations. However, some states publish only the statistics...