Informing conservation planning using future sea-level rise and storm surge modeling impact scenarios in the Northern Gulf of Mexico
Abstract Coastal communities across the Gulf of Mexico are increasingly vulnerable to coastal hazards, including sea level rise. The Gulf of Mexico contains 20 000 km² of land below 1.5 m in elevation and is one of the most vulnerable regions to sea level rise in the continental U.S. Wetlands are among the Gulf of Mexico's most economically and ecologically important habitats that comprise thirty-one percent (28 372 mi²) of land within the U.S. Gulf coastal watershed. These increasing hazards threaten not only the human-built infrastructure and coastal communities, but also natural habitats and ecosystems. Through a participatory stakeholder process the project team and regional stakeholders identified ongoing and future conservation planning efforts that were best suited to be informed by sea-level rise and storm surge projections, socioeconomic indicators, and marsh migration scenarios. This study estimates the potential impacts of SLR and storm surge to human communities and natural habitats, with emphasis on coastal marshlands, in both the Galveston Bay region of Texas and the Choctawhatchee and Saint Andrew Bay region of Florida. Project results include A) marsh change and viability analysis, B) community risk analysis, C) community resilience analysis; and D) long-term marsh management analysis. Our study suggests that sea-level rise impacts should be incorporated into ongoing conservation planning and management activities in order to allow decision makers to more easily develop adaptation strategies that foster coastal resilience in the face of a changing climate.