Study of Ebola Virus Outbreak Dynamics, Impact of Vaccination and Other Preventive Measures on Transmission Control
Ebola virus disease (EVD) is an emerging and remerging zoonosis associated with high fatality rate, mainly caused by the Zaire Ebola virus (ZEBOV) and Sudan Ebola virus (SEBOV) strains. Approximately 20 epidemics of EVD have been documented mainly in Central African countries since 1976. Currently, there are no therapeutics agents and vaccines yet approved for EVD. However, several promising therapeutics and vaccines candidates are actively undergoing various phase of clinical development. This study aims to study the EVD dynamics and evaluate the potential impacts of vaccines and other preventive measures on EVD transmission control and significance of medical intervention on outcome of the disease. An initial branch chain model of EVD dynamics was built based on data obtained from previous study. Different epidemiological scenarios for EVD with impacts of intervention were simulated using Berkeley-Madonna Version 8.3.18 software. Every reduction in the exposure rate of EBV infection by 10% produces two- to five-fold improvement in protection against EVD. Transmission control is optimum when the rate of exposure to EBV infection is reduced below 1%. Optimal control of EVD transmission can be achieved through strategic implementation of successful vaccination programme, and other preventive measures as well as rapid delivery of supportive medical care.