Nitrogen and phosphorous limitation reduces the effects of land use change on land carbon uptake or emission
We used an Earth System Model that includes both nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) cycling to simulate the impacts of land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) for two representative concentration pathways (RCPs): a reforestation scenario (RCP4.5) and a deforestation scenario (RCP8.5). For each RCP, we performed simulations with and without LULCC using the carbon (C only) mode or including the full C, N and P cycles (CNP). We show, for the first time, that inclusion of N and P cycling reduces both the carbon uptake from reforestation in RCP4.5 and the carbon emission from deforestation in RCP8.5. Specifically, carbon-nutrient interaction reduces carbon uptake in RCP4.5 from 55 Pg C (C only) to 21 Pg C (CNP), or the emissions in RCP8.5 from 72 Pg C (C only) to 56 Pg C (CNP). Most of those reductions result from much weaker responses of net primary production to CO2 fertilization and climate change when carbon-nutrient interaction is taken into account, as compared to C only simulations. Our results highlight the importance of including nutrient-carbon interaction in estimating the carbon benefit from reforestation and carbon loss from deforestation in a future world with higher CO2 and a warmer climate. Because of the stronger nutrient limitation, carbon gain from reforestation in the temperate and boreal regions is much less than the carbon loss from deforestation in the subtropical and tropical regions from 2006 to 2100 for the two RCPs. Therefore protecting the existing subtropical and tropical forests is about twice as effective as planting new forests in the temperate and boreal regions for climate mitigation.