Should economists be dependent on official fertility projections
The author critically examines fertility projections made during the twentieth century. The focus is on how inaccuracies in these predictions have affected policy and development strategies in developed countries. He examines fertility trends in 11 such countries and finds that contrary to current projections of declining fertility "both labor demand and labor supply conditions are likely to be more favorable for young adults in the coming decade and the resulting improvement in relative affluence of young adults should have a positive impact on childbearing." Particular attention is given to the United States. (EXCERPT)