Analog European Heat Waves for U.S. Cities to Analyze Impacts on Heat-Related Mortality
Abstract Europe experienced an unprecedented excessive heat event (EHE) in 2003, raising the question: What if a similar EHE were experienced in U.S. cities? This study used an airmass-based meteorological method to develop analogs to the 2003 European EHE for five U.S. cities: Detroit, New York, Philadelphia, St. Louis, and Washington, D.C.; and calculated the potential excess mortality for these analogs. Analogs capture the 2003 EHE's characteristics by determining daily deviations from long-term averages for meteorological variables in Paris, France, expressed as a multiple of the standard deviation for each variable's long-term average. The 2003 daily multiples of the standard deviation measured in Paris for 12 meteorological variables, and daily maximum and minimum temperatures, were transferred to each U.S. city, and multiplied by the corresponding standard deviation calculated for each variable, to produce analog meteorological variables. With these data, an airmass calendar for each city was devel...