‘Stressing the probable, postponing the improbable’: Hizballah in the shadow of the al‐Aqsa Intifada
Early June 2000, the outskirts of the village of Ghajar in the eastern area of South Lebanon: a squad of Hizballah guerrillas was sitting in the shadow of a tree, sheltering from the harsh glare of the sun. Barely 100 meters away, behind a fence and a few sandbags, Israeli soldiers were manning a light machine gun, vigilantly observing the scene. The two archenemies of the Middle East: so close, the situation so volatile, yet so calm. Nothing happened. The notorious Hizballah guerrillas were chatting peacefully, sitting in a ring, like a soccer team taking a break. At that moment, observing the serenity and the fixed positions of the antagonists, one could assume this to be the final triumph for Hizballah. Two weeks earlier, the Israeli army had unilaterally withdrawn its forces from South Lebanon. All along the border zone, Hizballah personnel were overlooking Israeli settlements without taking hostile action. In the aftermath of the withdrawal, no atrocities were committed by Islamist guerrillas against those in South Lebanon suspected of aiding and abetting Israel and the South Lebanese Army. For years the Israeli political and military establishment had justified the necessity of maintaining its presence in Lebanon, in spite of the mounting material and human costs, by arguing that the occupation of a 'security zone' was necessary to prevent Hizballah from harassing Israeli civilians of the north. Now this argument was being put to the test and Hizballah was confounding the skeptics. Yet observers remained puzzled. What was Hizballah up to? Were the guerrillas just biding their time before continuing their jihad in order to 'liberate Jerusalem' from its Israeli occupiers, or would Hizballah, as a domestic political movement, concern itself primarily with Lebanese politics, hoping to reap the popular dividends of its triumph in national elections? For the skeptics, Hizballah's belligerent stance and persisting guerrilla campaign on the slopes of the Shebaa farms, in addition to the abduction of Israeli soldiers in the same vicinity soon after the withdrawal followed by allegations of involvement in cross-border operations, confirmed a perception of a movement unyielding in its quest to bring about the destruction of the Jewish state.