Zur Bestimmung der Wettbewerbsfähigkeit des weißrussischen Milchsektors: Aussagefähigkeit von Wettbewerbsindikatoren und Entwicklung eines kohärenten Messungskonzepts
The Belarusian dairy sector has strongly suffered from the transformation processes of the 1990s. Thus, its milk production has significantly decreased due to a reduction of the cow number and a decrease of the milk yield as well. In spite of the drop in production during the transformation, the export of dairy products has significantly risen since 1992. Since 1995, milk has become the most important export product in agricultural trade. An assessment of the competitiveness of the Belarusian dairy sector showed a contradictory situation as there was a drop in production and a simultaneous export growth. The aim of this work was to analyse in detail the competitiveness of the Belarusian dairy sector and to assess the applicability of methods for analysing competitiveness. International trade theory was used as the theoretical framework for the analysis of competitiveness. This theory analysis the formation of international exchange of goods and the countries’ specialisation in production. The analysis was carried out in several steps and comprised the whole value added chain for milk. In a first step, trends in the national economy, agriculture and the dairy sector were examined. Furthermore, several analyses were undertaken for the assessment of the competitiveness: analysis of profitability of milk production involving national and international comparison; the PAM analysis which also delivered a quantitative assessment of the influence of policies in the dairy sector; an analysis of the foreign trade which allowed an evaluation of the processing level; and an analysis of the competitive potential of the Belarusian dairy sector with the Porter’s diamond model. In the dairy sector the successors of the large-scale socialist enterprises were the main milk producers with 70 % of the milk amount. In such farms, a complete conversion to private enterprises has not taken place and the agricultural enterprises have remained under an extensive state control. The agricultural land remained the state property and agricultural producers are merely given user rights. On the processsing level, the decline in milk production led to a reduction in the production of dairy products, underused capacities and losses. The economic efficiency of milk production and processing in Belarus was strongly influenced by policies fixing prices for raw milk and dairy products. Raw milk price and consumer prices for major dairy products were kept at a low level as a protection strategy for the low-income population. A comparison of production costs is applicable most especially at the production stage, since most relevant data are available. Also, due to the homogeneity of raw milk, the target product, a comparability of the results of single producers is ensured. Mikhail Ramanovich VIII An analysis of the production costs of milk in Belarusian large-scale farms has shown that the costs show a considerable variation among enterprises and the biggest cost items are feed and labour. While some of the large-scale farms produce milk with big losses, others make profits from milk production. Profitable farms reached their competitive advantage due to the higher milk yield as a result of higher quality of feeding and work. The increase of milk prices in 2004 significantly affected milk producers. The share of unprofitable large scale farms dropped from 76 % in 2002 to 21 % in 2004. The profitability analysis of Belarusian milk producers was widened by an analysis based on the IFCN methodology which allowed an international comparison of the farms. The analysis proved that Belarusian large-scale farms have clear cost advantages over the producers from Western Europe and also those from other CEEC. The analysis based on the IFCN methodology also allowed a deeper insight into the cost structure and the productivity of production factors. Cost advantages of Belarus were caused in particular by lower expenses for means of production and significantly lower prices for domestic factors (labour and land). The PAM extends the simple profitability concept by the assessment of the economic efficiency of the application of domestic factors and indicates whether their utilisation in a sector is feasible. However, the main purpose of the PAM is the analysis of market failure and influence of policies on the farm competitiveness. The PAM analysis confirmed the results of the profitability analysis and also confirmed a competitive milk production in Belarus. The analysis also showed that the large-scale farms in Belarus are disadvantaged by the existing agricultural policy. Since the milk prices are fixed at a low level, farms lose part of their income from milk production. On the contrary, they benefit from lower prices of domestic production factors. While the cost comparison analyses and the PAM deal with the preconditions for an international success, an analysis of the foreign trade shows the competitive position achieved at the world market. The indicators of international trade confirmed the competitiveness of the Belarusian dairy sector; however, they also revealed its weaknesses. Competitive advantages in foreign trade with dairy products exist only with standardised products. However, for high-value dairy products significant competitive disadvantages were identified. Since previous analyses have proven advantages for the milk production stage, the weaknesses in foreign trade indicate disadvantages in the processing stage, which overcompensate the competitive advantages existing at the production stage. The intra-industry trade is relatively less developed in the Belarusian foreign trade with dairy products (IIT-Index = 0.12). The analysis of the IIT for single products pointed to a vertical product differenttiation of trade. Thereby, cheaper product variations are exported and more expensive ones are imported leading to a lower quality of Belarusian products and points again to the disadvantages of the processing industry. Zur Bestimmung der Wettbewerbsfähigkeit des weißrussischen Milchsektors IX For the assessment of the competitive potential, Porter’s diamond was used. In this case, detailed analyses of factor conditions, demand conditions, related and supporting industries, firm strategy, structure and rivalry as well as an influence of the government were done. The analysis with Porter’s diamond has shown that the advantages of the Belarusian dairy sector arise from the factor conditions and the related and supporting industries. Meanwhile, the demand conditions have turned out to be disadvantageous. The biggest disadvantages for the Belarusian dairy sector were found in the determinant firm strategy and in the impact of the government. The influence of the government is characterized by restrictive interventions on all stages of the value added chain and thereby endangering the competitiveness of the Belarusian dairy sector.