Simulations of the ENSO Hydroclimate Signals in the Pacific Northwest Columbia River Basin
Abstract Natural fluctuations in the atmosphereocean system related to the El NinoSouthern Oscillation (ENSO) induce climate variability over many parts of the world that is potentially predictable with lead times from seasons to decades. This study examines the potential of using a model nesting approach to provide seasonal climate and streamflow forecasts suitable for water resources management. Two ensembles of perpetual January simulations were performed with a regional climate model driven by a general circulation model (GCM), using observed climatological sea surface temperature (SST) and the mean SST of the warm ENSO years between 1950 and 1994. The climate simulations were then used to drive a macroscale hydrology model to simulate streamflow. The differences between the two ensembles of simulations are defined as the warm ENSO signals. The simulated hydroclimate signals were compared with observations. The analyses focus on the Columbia River basin in the Pacific Northwest. Results show that the ...