A Monte Carlo analysis of muscle force estimation sensitivity to muscle-tendon properties using a Hill-based muscle model.
Surface electromyography driven models are desirable for estimating subject-specific muscle forces. However, these models include parameters that come from an array of sources, thus creating uncertainty in the model-estimated force. In this study, we used Monte-Carlo simulations to evaluate the sensitivity of Hill-based model muscle forces to changes in 11 parameters in the muscle-tendon unit morphological properties and in the model force-length and force-velocity relationships. We decomposed the force variability and ranked the sensitivity of the model to the underlying parameters using the Variogram Analysis of Response Surfaces. For the analyzed running experiments and the adopted Hill model structure, our results show that the parameters are separable into four groups, where the parameters in each group have a synergistic contribution to the model global sensitivity. The first group consists of the maximum isometric force and the pennation angle. The second group contains the optimal fiber length, the tendon slack length, the tendon reference strain and the tendon shape factor. The third group contains the width and shape at the extremities of the active contractile element, along with the maximum contraction velocity and the curvature constant in the force-velocity curve. The fourth group consisted only of the force enhancement during eccentric contraction. The first two groups revealed the largest influence on the output force sensitivity. As many input parameters are difficult to measure and impact estimated forces, we propose that model estimates be presented with confidence intervals as well as inter-parameter relationships, to encourage users to explicitly consider the model uncertainty.