Assimilation of Flash Extent Data in the Variational Framework at Convection Allowing Scales: Proof of Concept and Evaluation for the Short Term Forecast of the 24 May 2011 Tornado Outbreak
AbstractThis work evaluates the performance of the assimilation of total lightning data within a three dimensional variational (3DVAR) framework for the analysis and short term forecast of the 24 May 2011 tornado outbreak using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model at convection allowing scales. Between the lifted condensation level and a fixed upper height, pseudo observations for water vapor mass first are created based on either the flash extent densities derived from Oklahoma Lightning Mapping Array data or the lightning source densities derived from the Earth Networks pulse data, and then assimilated by the 3DVAR system. Assimilation of radar data with 3DVAR and a cloud analysis algorithm (RAD) also are performed as a baseline for comparison and in tandem with lightning to evaluate the added value of this lightning data assimilation (LDA) method.Given a scenario wherein the control experiment without radar or lightning data assimilation fails to accurately initiate and forecast the observe.