The Potential Predictability of Fire Danger Provided by Numerical Weather Prediction
AbstractA global fire danger rating system driven by atmospheric model forcing has been developed with the aim of providing early warning information to civil protection authorities. The daily predictions of fire danger conditions are based on the U.S. Forest Service National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) the Canadian Forest Service Fire Weather Index Rating System (FWI) and the Australian McArthur (Mark 5) rating systems. Weather forcings are provided in real time by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts forecasting system at 25 km resolution. The global system's potential predictability is assessed using reanalysis fields as weather forcings. The Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED4) provides 11 yr of observed burned areas from satellite measurements and is used as a validation dataset. The fire indices implemented are good predictors to highlight dangerous conditions. High values are correlated with observed fire, and low values correspond to nonobserved events. A more quantitat.