Examining Changes in Long Term Neighborhood Housing Vacancy during The 2011 to 2014 U.S. National Recovery
ABSTRACT High levels of neighborhood housing vacancy especially periods exceeding more than several months have long been a concern to community developers and policymakers in the United States. During the foreclosure crisis, such concerns became more pronounced, exemplified by the adoption of three legislated rounds of the Neighborhood Stabilization Program from 2008 to 2011. Despite such concern, what we know about longer term neighborhood housing vacancy has been limited, in part by a lack of good data. This article utilizes data from the U.S. Postal Service to explore changes in vacancy over a critical period of broader housing market recovery. It identifies the extent to which neighborhood characteristics predict changes in long term vacancy from 2011 to 2014 for the 50 largest metropolitan areas. High neighborhood vacancy rates persisted in some neighborhoods during this period, and these tended to be high poverty neighborhoods. Neighborhoods with more Hispanic and Asian residents experienced larger declines in long term vacancy. However, poorer neighborhoods lagged significantly. If a neighborhood had a poverty rate that was one standard deviation above and a median income that was one standard deviation below an otherwise comparable neighborhood, it was expected to see 13% more vacancies at the end of the period.