Probabilistic Coastal Storm Surge Analyses using Synthesized Tracks Based on Historical Typhoon Parameters
ABSTRACT Kim, H.J. and Suh, S.W. 2016. Probabilistic coastal storm surge analyses using synthesized tracks based on historical typhoon parameters. In: Vila Concejo, A. Bruce, E. Kennedy, D.M. and McCarroll, R.J. (eds. Proceedings of the 14th International Coastal Symposium (Sydney, Australia) Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue, No. 75, pp. 1132 1136. Coconut Creek (Florida) ISSN 0749 0208. Natural hazards driven by storm surge increasingly threaten low lying coastal areas and infrastructures. Although several attempts have been made to minimize coastal hazards by incorporating probabilistic, deterministic, and hybrid analyses, the nonlinear interactions between the tide and surge makes difficulties in storm surge analyses. In this study, an efficient approach to assess the vulnerability to storms surges is developed by applying a random generation scheme called the Topical Cyclone Risk Model (TCRM) The maximum radii and wind speed of synthetic storms were adjusted with central pressure based on historical track data to represent the most appropriate probability. A total of 177,244 storms were synthesized by a fully automated procedure using a Perl script; these acted as forcing in ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) model incorporating random tidal motion. By comparing the results of the hypothetical typhoon surges with observed data showed that the suggested synthetic storms based on historical tracks satisfactorily reproduce probabilistic surge elevations and show almost similar characteristics in real situation. Moreover, the simulation results showed typhoons heading to the west coast could cause higher surge heights than those landing on the south coast because of superposition of high tidal fluctuations in a macro tidal environment. Thus, this method can be applied to coastal hazards mitigation measures against return periods and future climate change. However, parameters such as moving speed and shape of the typhoon vortex would be important in surge simulations; hence, more appropriate treatment of these characteristics should be studied in future research.