Predictability of mesoscale circulation throughout the water column in the Gulf of Mexico
Abstract The predictability of the mesoscale circulation in the Gulf of Mexico is evaluated using an ensemble of four integrations for the period 2000 2008 using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) In all four runs ROMS is forced by identical, monthly varying, heat and momentum fluxes. We explore the role of initial conditions, boundary conditions, atmospheric forcing, and resolution in the Mississippi plume area, on the potential predictability of the Gulf circulation at scales of 20 km or greater. The potential for predictability varies regionally and seasonally. The modeled circulation is mainly atmospherically forced in the coastal areas and dominated by chaotic mesoscale activity in the central portion of the basin. The mesoscale circulation in the top 1000 m of the water column does not correlate with the one below it except for a limited number of small areas. The potential for predicting the circulation at depths deeper than 1000 m is limited by the intrinsic variability of the eddy field and by the unavailability of a continuous monitoring system that extends below the surface.