119288928
A realistic assessment of the CTA sensitivity to dark matter annihilation
We estimate the sensitivity of the upcoming CTA gamma-ray observatory to DM annihilation at the Galactic centre, improving on previous analyses in a number of significant ways. First, we perform a detailed analyses of all backgrounds, including diffuse astrophysical emission for the first time in a study of this type. Second, we present a statistical framework for including systematic errors and estimate the consequent degradation in sensitivity. These errors may come from e.g. event reconstruction, Monte Carlo determination of the effective area or uncertainty in atmospheric conditions. Third, we show that performing the analysis on a set of suitably optimised regions of interest makes it possible to partially compensate for the degradation in sensitivity caused by systematics and diffuse emission. To probe dark matter with the canonical thermal annihilation cross-section, CTA systematics like non-uniform variations in acceptance over a single field of view must be kept below the 0.3% level, unless the dark matter density rises more steeply in the centre of the Galaxy than predicted by a typical Navarro-Frenk-White or Einasto profile. For a contracted r(-1.3) profile, and systematics at the 1% level, CTA can probe annihilation to b (b) over bar at the canonical thermal level for dark matter masses between 100 GeV and 10 TeV.
55777556
Pippi — Painless parsing, post-processing and plotting of posterior and likelihood samples
Abstract.Interpreting samples from likelihood or posterior probability density functions is rarely as straightforward as it seems it should be. Producing publication-quality graphics of these distributions is often similarly painful. In this short note I describe pippi, a simple, publicly available package for parsing and post-processing such samples, as well as generating high-quality PDF graphics of the results. Pippi is easily and extensively configurable and customisable, both in its options for parsing and post-processing samples, and in the visual aspects of the figures it produces. I illustrate some of these using an existing supersymmetric global fit, performed in the context of a gamma-ray search for dark matter. Pippi can be downloaded and followed at http://github.com/patscott/pippi.
1373212
Sensitivity of CTA to dark matter signals from the Galactic Center
The Galactic Center is one of the most promising targets for indirect detection of dark matter with gamma rays. We investigate the sensitivity of the upcoming Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA) to dark matter annihilation and decay in the Galactic Center. As the inner density profile of the Milky Way's dark matter halo is uncertain, we study the impact of the slope of the Galactic density profile, inwards of the Sun, on the prospects for detecting a dark matter signal with CTA. Adopting the Ring Method to define the signal and background regions in an ON-OFF analysis approach, we find that the sensitivity achieved by CTA to annihilation signals is strongly dependent on the inner profile slope, whereas the dependence is more mild in the case of dark matter decay. Surprisingly, we find that the optimal choice of signal and background regions is virtually independent of the assumed density profile. For the fiducial case of a Navarro-Frenk-White profile, we find that CTA will be able to probe annihilation cross sections well below the canonical thermal relic value for dark matter masses from a few tens of GeV up to 5 TeV for annihilation to + , and will achieve only a slightly weaker sensitivity for annihilation to b b or + . CTA will improve significantly on current sensitivity to annihilation signals for dark matter masses above 100 GeV, covering parameter space that is complementary to that probed by searches with the Fermi Large Area Telescope. The interpretation of apparent excesses in the measured cosmic-ray electron and positron spectra as signals of dark matter decay will also be testable with CTA observations of the Galactic Center. We demonstrate that both for annihilation and for decay, including spectral information for hard channels (such as + and + ) leads to enhanced sensitivity for dark matter masses above mDM 200 GeV.
3586757
Fundamental statistical limitations of future dark matter direct detection experiments
We discuss irreducible statistical limitations of future ton-scale dark matter direct detection experiments. We focus in particular on the coverage of confidence intervals, which quantifies the reliability of the statistical method used to reconstruct the dark matter parameters and the bias of the reconstructed parameters. We study 36 benchmark dark matter models within the reach of upcoming ton-scale experiments. We find that approximate confidence intervals from a profile-likelihood analysis exactly cover or overcover the true values of the weakly interacting massive particle (WIMP) parameters, and hence are conservative. We evaluate the probability that unavoidable statistical fluctuations in the data might lead to a biased reconstruction of the dark matter parameters, or large uncertainties on the reconstructed parameter values. We show that this probability can be surprisingly large, even for benchmark models leading to a large event rate of order a hundred counts. We find that combining data sets from two different targets leads to improved coverage properties, as well as a substantial reduction of statistical bias and uncertainty on the dark matter parameters.
119301431
Number counts and non-Gaussianity
We describe a general procedure for using number counts of any object to constrain the probability distribution of the primordial fluctuations, allowing for generic weak non-Gaussianity. We apply this procedure to use limits on the abundance of primordial black holes and dark matter ultracompact minihalos (UCMHs) to characterize the allowed statistics of primordial fluctuations on very small scales. We present constraints on the power spectrum and the amplitude of the skewness for two different families of non-Gaussian distributions, distinguished by the relative importance of higher moments. Although primordial black holes probe the smallest scales, ultracompact minihalos provide significantly stronger constraints on the power spectrum and so are more likely to eventually provide small-scale constraints on non-Gaussianity.
17921922
The Chemical Composition of the Sun
The solar chemical composition is an important ingredient in our understanding of the formation, structure, and evolution of both the Sun and our Solar System. Furthermore, it is an essential refer ...
119357055
9C: a survey of radio sources at 15 GHz with the Ryle Telescope
The fields chosen for the first observations of the cosmic microwave background with the Very Small Array have been surveyed with the Ryle Telescope at 15 GHz. We have covered three regions around RA 00 h 20 m Dec. +30°, RA 09 h 40 m Dec. +32° and RA 15 h 40 m Dec. +43° (J2000.0), an area of 520 deg 2 . There are 465 sources above the current completeness limit of 25 mJy, although a total of 760 sources have been detected, some as faint as 10 mJy. This paper describes our techniques for observation and data analysis; it also includes source counts and some discussion of spectra and variability. Preliminary source lists are presented.
13971059
Cosmological parameter estimation using Very Small Array data out to ℓ = 1500
We estimate cosmological parameters using data obtained by the Very Small Array (VSA) in its extended configuration, in conjunction with a variety of other cosmic microwave background (CMB) data and external priors. Within the flat A cold dark matter (ACDM) model, we find that the inclusion of high-resolution data from the VSA modifies the limits on the cosmological parameters as compared to those suggested by the Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) alone, while still remaining compatible with their estimates. We find that Omega(b)h(2) = 0.0234(-0.0014)(+0.0012), Omegadmh2 = 0.111(-0.016)(+0.014), h = 0.73(-0.05)(+0.09), n(S) = 0.97(-0.03)(+0.06), 10(10) A(S) = 23(-3)(+7) and tau = 0.14(-0.07)(+0.14) for WMAP and VSA when no external prior is included. On extending the model to include a running spectral index of density fluctuations, we find that the inclusion of VSA data leads to a negative running at a level of more than 95 per cent confidence (n(run) = -0.069 +/- 0.032), something that is not significantly changed by the inclusion of a stringent prior on the Hubble constant. Inclusion of prior information from the 2dF galaxy redshift survey reduces the significance of the result by constraining the value of Omega(m). We discuss the veracity of this result in the context of various systematic effects and also a broken spectral index model. We also constrain the fraction of neutrinos and find that f(v) < 0.087 at 95 per cent confidence, which corresponds to m(v) <0.32 eV when all neutrino masses are equal. Finally, we consider the global best fit within a general cosmological model with 12 parameters and find consistency with other analyses available in the literature. The evidence for nrun < 0 is only marginal within this model.
119178739
High-resolution AMI Large Array imaging of spinning dust sources: spatially correlated 8 µm emission and evidence of a stellar wind in L675
We present 25 arcsec resolution radio images of five Lynds Dark Nebulae (L675, L944, L1103, L1111 and L1246) at 16 GHz made with the Arcminute Microkelvin Imager (AMI) Large Array. These objects were previously observed with the AMI Small Array to have an excess of emission at microwave frequencies relative to lower frequency radio data. In L675, we find a flat spectrum compact radio counterpart to the 850 μm emission seen with Submillimetre Common-User Bolometer Array (SCUBA) and suggest that it is cm-wave emission from a previously unknown deeply embedded young protostar. In the case of L1246, the cm-wave emission is spatially correlated with 8 μm emission seen with Spitzer. Since the mid-infrared emission is present only in Spitzer band 4 we suggest that it arises from a population of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon molecules, which also give rise to the cm-wave emission through spinning dust emission.
7640204
A blind detection of a large, complex, Sunyaev–Zel’dovich structure★
We present an interesting Sunyaev–Zel’dovich (SZ) detection in the first of the Arcminute Microkelvin Imager (AMI) ‘blind’, degree-square fields to have been observed down to our target sensitivity of 100µJy beam^(-1). In follow-up deep pointed observations the SZ effect is detected with a maximum peak decrement greater than eight times the thermal noise. No corresponding emission is visible in the ROSAT all-sky X-ray survey and no cluster is evident in the Palomar all-sky optical survey. Compared with existing SZ images of distant clusters, the extent is large (≈10 arcmin) and complex; our analysis favours a model containing two clusters rather than a single cluster. Our Bayesian analysis is currently limited to modelling each cluster with an ellipsoidal or spherical β model, which does not do justice to this decrement. Fitting an ellipsoid to the deeper candidate we find the following. (a) Assuming that the Evrard et al. approximation to Press & Schechter correctly gives the number density of clusters as a function of mass and redshift, then, in the search area, the formal Bayesian probability ratio of the AMI detection of this cluster is 7.9 × 10^4:1; alternatively assuming Jenkins et al. as the true prior, the formal Bayesian probability ratio of detection is 2.1 × 10^5:1. (b) The cluster mass is M_(T,200) = 5.5_(-1.3)^(+1.2) x 10^(14)h^(-1)_(70) M_☉. (c) Abandoning a physical model with number density prior and instead simply modelling the SZ decrement using a phenomenological β model of temperature decrement as a function of angular distance, we find a central SZ temperature decrement of -295_(-15)^(+36) µK – this allows for cosmic microwave background primary anisotropies, receiver noise and radio sources. We are unsure if the cluster system we observe is a merging system or two separate clusters.
17456219
An excess of emission in the dark cloud LDN 1111 with the Arcminute Microkelvin Imager
We present observations of the Lynds’ dark nebula LDN1111 made at microwave frequencies between 14.6 and 17.2GHz with the Arcminute Microkelvin Imager (AMI). We find emission in this frequency band in excess of a thermal free–free spectrum extrapolated from data at 1.4GHz with matched uv-coverage. This excess is > 15� above the predicted emission. We fit the measured spectrum using the spinning dust model of Drain & Lazarian (1998a) and find the best fitting model parameters agree well with those derived from Scuba data for this object by Visser et al. (2001).