Former Prime Minister Tony Abbott is set to lose the seat he has held for 25 years as counting begins in the 2019 Federal Election.

The Liberal MP was up against former Olympian and Independent candidate Zali Steggall, and admitted he was nervous as he cast his vote at Forestville Public School on Saturday morning.

Early results show Ms Steggall has 46 per cent of the primary vote, with five per cent counted so far.

The numbers are expected to continue flowing her way, as the majority of preferences in that seat are directed towards her.

The seat of Warringah has been held by the Liberal Party since 1951, and by Mr Abbott since 1994.

Mr Abbott suffered a nine per cent primary vote swing against him at the 2016 election and now holds the seat with an 11 per cent margin.

But some bookies have ranked independent Zali Steggall the favourite.

When asked how he was feeling by a voter as he headed to the booth, Mr Abbott said he was 'not too cocky'.

He told reporters he has always been a nervous candidate, but went on to say his churning stomach was a burden everyone standing for government faced.

'Sure, I've got a few butterflies doing loop-the-loops in my tummy today as well,' he said.

'But that's the lot of all candidates because the one thing you can never take for granted is the vote of the Australian people.' </s> Even after losing his seat, Tony Abbott refused to acknowledge that he's out of touch with Australia.

And he is, in part, right. The former prime minister has been driven out of the seat he's held for 25 years and one of the big factors is the renewed sense of urgency over climate change.

Abbott agreed that his long sneer at climate change told heavily against him, while the victorious independent Zali Steggall declared to her electorate: "I will be a climate leader for you".

He conceded that he was out of step with the people of Warringah. </s> Former prime minister Tony Abbott has lost his northern beaches seat of Warringah to independent Zali Steggall.

The ex-Liberal leader had held Warringah for 24 years but early counting suggests the Liberals could lose the seat with his former chief of staff confirming alarm bells were ringing.

With almost 20 per cent of the vote counted at 7.30pm, Mr Abbott had just 37 per cent of the primary vote, compared with Ms Steggall who had 45 per cent of first preference votes.
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“I would have thought it would be a little bit tighter than this - it looks like it’s real trouble,” Peta Credlin told Sky News on Saturday night.

Liberal senator Michaelia Cash told Seven News: “The primary vote is clearly an issue.”

ABC election analyst said Zali Steggall had 45 per cent of the primary vote compared to Mr Abbott’s 37 per cent.

“Tony Abbott is not going to win if those are the first preferences,” he said.

Media were locked out of the former prime minister’s election night function and told they’d only be briefly allowed in to record his speech.

“Life goes on,” one Liberal supporter said.

Abbott supporters were subdued as they trickled in to to the Manly Leagues Club’s Encores Room.

By way of contrast, Ms Steggall arrived to a rockstar reception at the Novotel hotel in Manly.

Ms Steggall described the night as “a referendum for Warringah”.

“We’ve worked very hard for the past four months to make this happen - I think it’s democracy,” she told reporters.

“Politics in Australia has not been at its best for the past 10 years and it’s time we changed that. I really take that on board and I take great responsibility for that.”

7NEWS veteran Chris Reason said things were looking “dramatically bad” for the former PM.

“He will be in a state of nervousness, perhaps even panic, by now, watching the numbers as they roll in,” he said.

“Exit polling as well from Fairfax has shown particular results that he is in deep trouble here in Warringah, a seat he has held since that by-election in ’94.

“He has won nine elections here over the last 25 years. He was praying tonight would be number 10 but it is not looking that way.” </s> Australians have mocked former Prime Minister Tony Abbott for the political gaffe he never recovered from, after he lost his seat of 25 years.

Hundreds took to Twitter to encourage others to 'put your onions out', a reminder of the moment Mr Abbott took a bite out of a raw onion as he campaigned in late 2015.

Mr Abbott was touring Woolworths supplier, Charlton Farm Produce near Devonport in Tasmania, when he took the historic bite, shocking voters nationwide.

He finally explained himself to Andrew Bolt on Sky News earlier this year, claiming he chowed down because the farmer was 'extremely proud of the produce'.

'All of us eat raw onion occasionally... salads are full of raw onion,' the former prime minister said.

He explained the onion had no outer skin and was effectively peeled when he took a bite.

'I thought the least I could do for someone who is proud of his product as this particular farmer was... was take a chomp, and it was beautiful,' Mr Abbott said.

Twitter users shared photographs of onions laid out at their front doors in tribute, though none of them appeared to be too upset by the result.

Abbott was one of the first casualties of the 2019 election, losing his blue-ribbon Liberal seat to Independent Zali Steggall.

Early polling saw Ms Steggall soar ahead of her opponent, who admitted he was nervous as he cast his vote at Forestville Public School on Saturday morning.

With just 11 per cent counted, Ms Steggall had a swing of more than 45 per cent towards her.

The numbers are expected to continue flowing her way, as the majority of preferences in that seat are directed towards her.

The seat of Warringah has been held by the Liberal Party since 1951, and by Mr Abbott since 1994.

Mr Abbott suffered a nine per cent primary vote swing against him at the 2016 election and now holds the seat with an 11 per cent margin, and ABC's Annabel Crabb says Abbott's disconnect with voters was the reason behind his demise.

Obviously he had an incredibly intense campaign run by a very credible Independent candidate,' she said.

'There was the assistance, or negative assistance in Mr Abbott's case, of the group GetUp, which knocked on 25,000 doors and made 150,000 phone calls.

They did some exit polling today which found that climate change was the number one issue for Warringah voters and the number one issue for lost Liberals who said they'd voted against Tony Abbott.'

When asked how he was feeling by a voter as he headed to the booth on Saturday morning, Mr Abbott said he was 'not too cocky'.

He told reporters he has always been a nervous candidate, but went on to say his churning stomach was a burden everyone standing for government faced.

'Sure, I've got a few butterflies doing loop-the-loops in my tummy today as well,' he said.

'But that's the lot of all candidates because the one thing you can never take for granted is the vote of the Australian people.' </s> Former Prime Minister Tony Abbott has faced off against newcomer Zali Steggall in Warringah debate.

A man was stabbed in the stomach while he was putting up Tony Abbott posters last night.

The 32-year-old was not badly injured during the attack and was treated by paramedics at the scene at Balgowlah Heights Public School, on Sydney’s northern beaches, about 8.30pm.

The man was with others putting up campaign material for Mr Abbott, who is facing a major challenge from independent Zali Steggall for the seat he has held for 25 years in today’s election.

While plastering posters they were yelled at by another man who was walking by, The Daily Telegraph reported.

The two men got into an argument before the 32-year-old was stabbed with what is thought to be a screwdriver.

The alleged offender then ran off and is being hunted by police from Northern Beaches Police Area Command.

Mr Abbott holds Warringah with an 11 per cent margin and many would have thought this was unassailable — that was until independent Kerryn Phelps secured a shock win in the blue-ribbon seat of Wentworth, which retiring Liberal MP Malcolm Turnbull had held with a 17 per cent margin.

Now Mr Abbott is in what he has described as the “fight of my life” to hang on to his seat and political career.

Internal Liberal Party polling done in the electorate ahead of the election being called was reportedly “diabolically bad” for Mr Abbott. </s> Independent knocks former PM out of parliament with pro-climate action campaign

This article is more than 3 months old

This article is more than 3 months old

One of the Liberals’ leading conservatives and Australia’s 28th prime minister, Tony Abbott, has lost his blue-ribbon Sydney seat of Warringah after moderate Liberal voters abandoned him in protest at the role he played in opposing climate change action.

Abbott lost to the independent candidate and Olympian Zali Steggall, with thecount showing she was likely to win almost 60% of the vote on a two-party-preferred basis.

But Abbott’s loss appeared to be the only black spot on a night when it appeared the Coalition would hold on to government.

“I want to say to you: there is good news and bad news. There is every chance that the Liberal-National Coalition has won the election,” Abbott said in his concession speech, to chants of “Tony, Tony!”

“This – this is a really extraordinary result. It is a stupendous result. It is a great result for Scott Morrison and the rest of the wider Liberal team, and Scott Morrison will now, quite rightly, enter the Liberal pantheon forever,” he said.

“So its disappointing for us in Warringah. I can’t say it doesn’t hurt to lose. But I would rather be a loser than a quitter,” he said to wild applause.

Facts go out of the window in the battle for Warringah | The Weekly Beast Read more

He said the Liberals had become the party who believed that “the most important thing is to raise people up.”

“I think we can see that there is something of a realignment of politics going on right around this country. It’s clear that in what might be described as ‘working seats’, we are doing so much better.

“It’s also clear that in at least some of what might be described as ‘wealthy seats’, we are doing it tough, and the green-left is doing better,” he said.

Abbott said he had feared the worst after the result in the Wentworth byelection last year.

Backed by a number of local community groups, Steggall was drafted as a candidate to advocate for more action on the climate crisis. She had run on a platform that was almost entirely focused on taking meaningful action to counter it, including adopting much tougher targets than the Coalition has embraced – a message that resonated with the middle-class voters of Warringah. Her support was especially strong in Mosman and Manly.

The loss of one the most outspoken members of the conservative wing would normally send deep shockwaves through the Liberal party, but given the other results on Saturday night it seems less certain that Abbott’s defeat will prompt internal debate about the party’s positioning on the climate crisis.

Play Video 0:31 'The sweetest victory of all’: Peter Dutton quotes Paul Keating after winning in Dickson – video

The survival of Peter Dutton in the seat of Dickson will also boost the conservative wing of the party.

Abbott said the result showed that where climate change was a “moral issue, we do it tough. But where it’s an economic issue, we do very, very well.”

Steggall’s campaign was supported by a number of grassroots groups which had formed out of disillusion with the Liberal party’s policy on the climate emergency.

In her acceptance speech she paid tribute to Abbott as “a dedicated and long-serving local member”.

“Nobody can doubt his community spirit, his work ethic, and his contribution to this community. And I wish him well.”

But she said Warringah had “voted for the future”.

“This is a win for moderates with a heart,” she said. “I will be a climate leader for you. And I will keep the new government to account, and make sure we take action on climate change.

The Warringah result is certain to be analysed in terms of what a grassroots campaign can do against a seemingly invulnerable politician.

'And this is Mosman!': genteel Warringah rocked by election rancour Read more

Several high-profile former Liberal members from Mosman were behind the push to find a candidate to run against Abbott and the vote shows they were successful in their strategy to get family and friends to persuade other Liberal-leaning voters to lodge a protest vote.

There is also likely to be a heated discussion, particularly from the News Corp publications, about the role of left-leaning and progressive organisations in the political process, with conservatives warning that progressive groups represent a threat to democracy because of their deep pockets.

The seat was a hot spot for activism by GetUp, which door-knocked more than 20,000 households in the north shore and northern beaches seat, and Stop Adani, which was also active.

Abbott had held Warringah for 25 years, having won it 1994 in a byelection.

The former journalist and political adviser to John Howard became a public figure as the director of Australians for a Constitional Monarchy in 1992, a position he held until he ran for the seat.

As an MP Abbott rose quickly in the Howard government and was appointed minister for employment services in 1998 after Howard won a second term.

He later became minister for health, where he sought to prosecute a conservative agenda, including seeking to ban the abortion drug RU486, a move Howard ultimately did not embrace.

'Pea for a heart': Tony Abbott refuses to back down on partisan tribute to Bob Hawke Read more

After Howard lost in 2007, Abbott served in the shadow cabinets of Brendan Nelson and Malcolm Turnbull but he resigned from the frontbench in November 2009 in protest against Turnbull’s support for the Rudd government’s proposed emissions trading scheme.

That set the stage for a decade-long battle within the Liberal party over climate . Abbott once branded the science of climate change “crap” and led the opposition internally to wipe out subsidies for renewables and any policy that attempted to put a price on carbon.

After forcing a leadership ballot on the subject in 2009, Abbott defeated Turnbull by 42 votes to 41, to become the party’s leader and leader of the opposition.

He led the Coalition at the 2010 election, which resulted in a hung parliament but Labor, led by Julia Gillard, formed government, with the support of one Greens MP and three independents.

Regarded as fearsome campaigner, Abbott was re-elected as Liberal leader unopposed. He went on to lead the Coalition to victory in the 2013 election.

But just two years later, on 14 September 2015, Abbott was defeated as Liberal party leader 54 votes to 44 by Malcolm Turnbull, who replaced him as prime minister the following day.

Abbott was widely seen as a driving force behind the destabilisation of Turnbull’s leadership and the thwarting of the national energy guarantee, Turnbull’s policy to tackle global heating.

In 2018 Turnbull was in turn challenged and replaced by Scott Morrison.

Abbott appeared to leave open the door for a possible comeback, saying his public life was not over. </s> Prime Minister Scott Morrison has announced the date of the next federal election.

Mr Morrison announced on Thursday the election will be held on May 18, after meeting with Governor-General Sir Peter Cosgrove to dissolve the Parliament.

'Earlier this morning, I visited the Governor-General here in Canberra and he accepted my advice for an election to be held on 18 May,' Mr Morrison said.

The conservative coalition is seeking a third three-year term. But Mr Morrison is the third Prime Minister to lead a divided government in that time and only took the helm in late August.

Opinion polls suggest his reign will become one of the shortest in the 118-year history of Australian Prime Ministers on election day.

The polls suggest center-left opposition leader Bill Shorten will become the eighth Prime Minister since the country plunged into an extraordinary period of political instability in 2007.

In announcing the date of the election, Mr Morrison said Australia was the 'best country in the world'.

'But to secure your future, the road ahead depends on a strong economy. And that's why there is so much at stake at at this election,' he said.

'It's a choice between a government that I lead and the alternative of a Labor government led by Bill Shorten.

'I believe in a fair go for those who have a go.'

Mr Morrison said voters could be assured he would see out his term as Prime Minister should he be elected despite the leadership spill that saw him replace Malcolm Turnbull last year.

'We changed the rules in the Liberal party... those rules say that at the next election on May 18, if the Liberal-National Government is returned, if I'm re-elected as Prime Minister, then I will serve as Prime Minister because the rules have been changed to prevent the things that happened in the past,' he said.

The election pits Shorten, a former labor union leader who has presented himself as the alternative prime minister for the past six years, and Morrison, a leader who the Australian public is still getting to know.

Australians face the starkest policy choice in a generation with an election to be held in just five weeks.

Mr Shorten is odds-on favourite to be Australia's next prime minister, despite the government campaigning strongly against his renewable energy and negative gearing policies to help younger people afford a home.

Betting agency Sportsbet is predicting the biggest federal Labor majority in 76 years, in an election where four Liberal ministers would lose their seat.

More than 16.2million voters are heading to the polls in five weeks in an election which could see a government voted out of office for only the eighth time since World War II.

Mr Morrison arrived at Government House in Canberra on Thursday morning to speak to Governor-General Sir Peter Cosgrove about dissolving Parliament.

Mr Shorten told Daily Mail Australia last month his policy agenda was the most ambitious since Gough Whitlam won the 1972 election by campaigning on the theme, 'It's Time.'

His Labor Party is vowing to have Australia source 50 per cent of its energy from renewable sources by 2030.

Labor also wants half of all vehicles sold in Australia within 11 years to be electric or hybrid cars, a very dramatic increase from the 0.2 per cent market share they have now.

The Opposition also wants to slash carbon emissions by 45 per cent by 2030.

Labor's plan is much more ambitious than the Coalition's goal of a 28 per cent reduction in carbon pollution over the same time frame.

The Opposition is also vowing to scrap negative gearing tax breaks for future purchases of existing property, so fewer investors are competing with younger Australians wanting to buy their first home.

Labor has promised to stop wealthy retirees, who don't pay income tax, from getting tax refunds for when they receive share dividends.

The Opposition says its winding back of negative gearing and its tax crackdowns on shareholders will save $80billion over the next decade.

The government, which lacks a parliamentary majority, is opposed to both of these policies and has been campaigning fiercely for the Baby Boomer vote.

Mr Morrison, who became PM in August, will call a May election, days after his Treasurer Josh Frydenberg delivered a Budget giving annual tax cuts of up to $1,080 for 10 million Australian workers earning up to $126,000 a year.

Mr Shorten has vowed to match the tax cuts and give even more to lower income earners on less than $40,000 a year, who were promised $255 a year in the Budget.

His Budget-reply speech also offered a $2.3 billion policy whereby the Commonwealth would pay the medical bills of cancer sufferers - five years after the Opposition Leader's mother Ann died of breast cancer.

The Liberal-National party Coalition has last week unveiled the first Budget surplus in 12 years - something a federal Labor government hasn't delivered since 1989 when Bob Hawke was prime minister.

The government, however, is plagued with disunity, having disposed Tony Abbott in September 2015 before right-wing forces brought down his prime ministerial successor Malcolm Turnbull in August 2018.

Both major parties are committed to sending asylum seekers to offshore processing centres at Nauru and Manus Island in Papua New Guinea.

Labor, however, is open about them being allowed to move to New Zealand, following an offer from Kiwi Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern.

When Labor was last in government former prime minister Kevin Rudd in 2008 dismantled the Pacific solution.

This led to a surge in boat arrivals, rising from just three in the 2007-08 financial year, to 117 in 2009-10.

Or put another way, the number of asylum seekers surged from 25 to 5,327, figures from a Parliament House research paper showed.

The policy change also coincided with the deaths of 48 people, mainly asylum seekers from Iran and Iraq, as their boat sunk and washed on to cliffs at Christmas Island in December 2010.

The Coalition has now lost 50 Newspolls in a row to Labor, trailing the Opposition 46 to 54 per cent after preferences.

If replicated at the election, the government would suffer a 4.4 per cent swing against it causing the Liberal and National parties to lose 12 seats.

Betting agency Sportsbet, however, has Labor picking up 23 seats from the Coalition, which would see its seat numbers swell to 93 in the expanded 151-member House of Representatives.

The Liberal and National parties would see their seat tally plummet from 75 now to 53, marking the worst electoral drubbing for the conservative side of politics since 1943.

This would give Mr Shorten the biggest federal election majority since March 1996, when John Howard's Liberal-National Coalition defeated Paul Keating's Labor Party in a landslide.

It would also mark the biggest Labor majority since John Curtin was prime minister during World War II.

Mr Shorten is on course to be the first prime minister since 1914 to have won an election after taking over as Opposition Leader from the time his party was defeated at the polls.

Sportsbet predicted ministers Peter Dutton, Christian Porter, David Coleman and Ken Wyatt would lose their seats.

The betting agency is predicting the Liberal Party will lose to Labor the seat of Boothby, in Adelaide's southern suburbs, which it has held since 1949.

It also had former independent Rob Oakeshott as the short-priced favourite to pick up Cowper, on the New South Wales Mid-North Coast, from the Nationals, where former minister Luke Hartsuyker is retiring.

But the betting market had the Liberal Party winning back former prime minister Malcolm Turnbull's old seat of Wentworth, in Sydney's eastern suburbs, as another former PM Tony Abbott narrowly held on to his nearby electorate of Warringah.

Veteran election analyst Malcolm Mackerras was less optimistic about Mr Shorten's chances of a Labor landslide, predicting it will win 83 seats, up from the 69 it won in 2016, and factoring in an electoral redistribution in two Liberal-held seats in Victoria.

'I think he's performing very well,' he told Daily Mail Australia.

The Coalition, under his scenario, would see its seat tally drop from 75 to 64, as the Liberal Party regained the northern Victorian electorate of Indi, where independent Cathy McGowan is retiring.

Mr Turnbull's old seat of Wentworth could also be another Liberal gain, as Dave Sharma defeated independent Dr Kerryn Phelps, who won an October by-election and pushed the government into minority territory.

Mr Turnbull's arch nemesis Mr Abbott was tipped to lose his Sydney northern beaches electorate of Warringah to winter Olympian Zali Steggall, with Sportsbet and opinion polls showing a close contest.

'I think Sharma has a slightly better chance of winning Wentworth than Abbott has of retaining Warringah,' Mr Mackerras said.

'Dave Sharma is thought to be a very good candidate who belongs to basically the moderate side of the party.

'More particularly, people put Kerryn Phelps in to express their anger about the Liberal Party sacking Turnbull. Now that anger's over, they'll say, 'Well, Sharma's a good candidate'.'

Mr Mackerras saw Attorney-General Christian Porter losing his Perth-based seat of Pearce, Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton losing his Brisbane electorate of Dickson and Aged Care Minister Ken Wyatt losing his eastern Perth electorate of Hasluck.

Mr Mackerras, an honorary fellow with the Australian Catholic University, however, predicted Immigration Minister David Coleman would hold his marginal south-west Sydney seat of Banks, despite its narrow 1.4 per cent margin.

It overlaps with the state seats of East Hills and Oatley, which recorded swings to the Liberal Party at the March state election.

Mr Mackerras said while Mr Morrison wasn't particularly popular across Australia, his Liberal Party had stronger support in that part of Sydney, which for six decades had supported Labor at a state and federal level.

'I think in southern Sydney, he's doing very well which is part of the reason why I think Banks will stay with the Liberal Party,' he said.

'Apart from that, I just don't think people think much of him.

'He doesn't come across to me as being at all competent.

'He certainly doesn't come across as deserving to be Prime Minister.'

He also predicted the Nationals would keep their most marginal seat of Capricornia, in central Queensland, despite assistant minister Michelle Landry holding it by a very slim 0.6 per cent margin.

Dawson, in north Queensland, would also stay with the Nationals , with renegade backbencher George Christensen campaigning for the government to fund a coal-fired power station.

'Areas that are near to possible new coal mines stay will stay with the Nationals,' Mr Mackerras said.

'They're close enough to the Bowen Basin developments.'

Even before the election begins, electorate distributions in the Liberal-held Victorian seats of Corangamite and Dunkley already favour Labor, which means sitting government members Sarah Henderson and Chris Crewther will need to increase their vote to keep their jobs.

Betting agency Sportsbet has Labor picking up 23 new seats from the Coalition. This would see Labor end up with 93 seats out of 151, giving it 61.6 per cent of seats in an expanded House of Representatives. This would be Labor's biggest majority haul of seats, in percentage terms, since 1943 when John Curtin was wartime prime minister. This would also be a bigger win than Bob Hawke's 1983 victory and Kevin Rudd's 2007 defeat of John Howard. It would mark the biggest landslide since 1996, when John Howard's Liberal-National Coalition defeated Paul Keating's Labor Party, which had been in power for 13 years. The Coalition's seat tally would plummet from 75 now to 53, marking its worst defeat in 76 years, before the Liberal Party was founded. Were the betting predictions to materialise, Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton would lose his Brisbane seat of Dickson while Attorney-General Christian Porter would be defeated in his Perth seat of Pearce. Aged Care Minister Ken Wyatt, the first indigenous member of the House of Representatives, would also lose his eastern Perth seat of Hasluck while Immigration Minister David Coleman would lose his south-west Sydney seat of Banks. Former prime minister Tony Abbott is also in danger in his Sydney northern beaches seat of Warringah, against independent challenger and Winter Olympic champion Zali Steggall, although he is narrowly favoured to stay in Parliament. Former independent Rob Oakeshott is the favourite to claim the New South Wales Mid-North Coast seat of Cowper from the Nationals, where former minister Luke Hartsuyker is retiring. The Liberal Party could regain the northern Victorian seat of Indi, following the retirement of independent Cathy McGowan. Dave Sharma also has short odds of regaining former PM Malcolm Turnbull's seat of Wentworth, in Sydney's eastern suburbs, which former Australian Medical Association president Dr Kerryn Phelps won as an independent in an October 2018 by-election. Were Sportsbet's scenarios to materialise, Mr Oakeshott would be one of five crossbenchers in the lower house, along with Greens MP Adam Bandt, Centre Alliance's Rebekha Sharkie, maverick Bob Katter and independent Andrew Wilkie. </s> With so many gains for the Coalition and so few for Labor, Mr Shorten's hopes of becoming Prime Minister receded as election night went on. The Coalition, which has trailed Labor in the polls throughout its turbulent time in government, went in to the campaign with 74 seats and added to that tally across Queensland, where it defeated Labor in Longman and Herbert. The Coalition also wrested the Tasmanian seat of Braddon from Labor and appeared likely to claim the neighbouring electorate of Bass as well. The Coalition and Labor teams were anxiously waiting on results from Western Australia to be sure of the outcome. The Coalition's gains left Labor clutching to the hope of negotiating with crossbench MPs to hold government in a hung Parliament. With the electorate enduring more than a decade of unprecedented parliamentary bloodletting - Australia has had seven Prime Ministers in 11 years - many neutral observers were hoping for a period of political stability.

However, the result shows the nation is divided along geographic and ideological lines with Mr Abbott declaring a political "realignment" with Labor making gains in progressive wealthy seats and the Coalition doing better in working class areas. A group of key independents could still hold the key to power. Mr Abbott said the Coalition would be able to retain government even though he conceded he would lose his seat of Warringah, a safe Liberal electorate for years that came under attack from independent candidate Zali Steggall and her campaign for more action on climate change. "The good news is that there is every chance the Liberal National Coalition has won this election," Mr Abbott said. "This is a really extraordinary result, it is a stupendous result, it is a great result for Scott Morrison and the rest of the Liberal team, and Scott Morrison will quite rightly enter the Liberal pantheon forever."

In western Sydney, the electorate of Lindsay fell to the Liberals while the neighbouring electorate of Macquarie appeared to be shifting in the same way. In eastern Sydney, the Liberal Party was confident of regaining the blue-ribbon seat of Wentworth with Liberal candidate Dave Sharma ahead of independent MP Kerryn Phelps, who gained the seat at a byelection last year. The outcomes give the Coalition a narrow majority in the House of Representatives unless it suffers the loss of other seats. Labor gained the seat of Gilmore on the NSW South Coast and the two Victorian seats of Chisholm and Dunkley. Bill Shorten with his wife Chloe on election day. Early in the night, Mr Shorten appeared to be on track to become Australia's 31st prime minister after an exit poll predicted a swing to Labor, with voters naming health and climate change as key factors in their decisions.

While Labor Party members were buoyant before the early count, Mr Morrison expressed caution about his chances, saying he made "no assumptions" about holding on to power. While the Liberal Party appeared likely to regain Wentworth, independent MPs made gains elsewhere with Victorian independent Helen Haines on track to win Indi and succeed former independent MP Cathy McGowan. Combined with the victory for Ms Steggall, the election appears to leave Parliament with a crossbench that includes Greens MP Adam Bandt, Tasmanian independent Andrew Wilkie, Queenslander Bob Katter, South Australian Rebekha Sharkie as well as Ms Steggall and Dr Haines. Mr Wilkie has ruled out doing any deal with a minority government while Mr Katter has backed the Coalition in the past. Others have named climate change policy as a factor in their decisions on whether to support a minority government on votes of confidence and supply.

The government's 74 seats in the House of Representatives was down from the 76 it won at the last election due to the departure of former Liberal MP Julia Banks to the crossbench and the arrival of independent MP Kerryn Phelps in Wentworth. Labor started with 69 seats from the last Parliament. Bill Shorten and wife Chloe, left, and Scott Morrison and wife Jenny, right, vote on Saturday. Labor described its election effort as its largest "field campaign" in history, putting more than 25,000 volunteers into the field to knock on more than one million doors. Labor claimed its supporters made more than one million phone calls to urge Australians to back their party. Activist group GetUp said it had mobilised more than 9000 volunteers who had worked on the ground, with a wider group of helpers making more than 700,000 phone calls during the campaign. The ACTU had about 5000 volunteers working during the campaign.

Mr Shorten began the final day of the campaign by urging Australians to change the government because Labor would act on climate change, spend more on health, restore stability after the leadership division within the Liberal Party and improve fairness by scaling back tax concessions for the wealthy. He visited Melbourne electorates after an early morning run wearing a t-shirt that asked people to vote for "Chloe Shorten's husband" – an acknowledgement of his wife's importance to his campaign. Mr Morrison campaigned at a more hectic pace by flying to Tasmania on Saturday morning to woo voters in the marginal seat of Bass before heading to Sydney for the remainder of the day. The Coalition adopted the same approach the previous day with a relentless tour through Queensland marginal seats.

"I already feel a responsibility to millions of people to win. But sure, I want to do it for Bob, as well," Mr Shorten said on Thursday. "I don't want to let his memory down." </s> Federal election: See how the Coalition defied the polls to retain power

Labor went into the 2019 federal election favourites off the back of almost three years of opinion polls, but within hours it became clear that the polls had failed to capture the mood of the electorate.

The ALP was expecting to pick up seats off a low base in Queensland, but that was not to be the case.

The most high-profile scalp Labor was hoping to claim was that of Liberal leadership contender Peter Dutton, who sat on a slim margin in Dickson.

Despite a large Labor war chest and a scathing attack on Mr Dutton from former PM Paul Keating — who urged voters to "drive a political stake through his dark political heart" — the Liberal member held on.

Mr Dutton quoted Mr Keating in his acceptance speech: "This was the sweetest victory of all."

The result was emblematic of what occurred across the rest of the state.

Labor had hopes of taking seats like Petrie from the LNP …

… But instead the party found itself fighting for strongholds like Wayne Swan's former seat of Lilley.

In Queensland, the rise of United Australia Party and One Nation saw a collapse in Labor's primary vote and added up to two extra seats for the LNP in the Sunshine State: Longman and Herbert.

Labor's east coast hopes rested with Victoria, where it might have been expected to do well — given the popularity of the state Labor Government.

And it was further helped by two redistributions, which turned two marginal Liberal seats notionally Labor.

The party was able to hold both Corangamite and Dunkley, but elsewhere in Victoria, it was a different story.

While Treasurer Josh Frydenberg faced a tough battle for his west-Melbourne seat of Kooyong, he prevailed.

Labor had been hoping to claim Higgins, in Melbourne's inner south-east, given the retirement of Liberal MP Kelly O'Dwyer.

But while there was a swing in Labor's favour, it was not enough to stop Katie Allen from retaining the seat for the Government.

The ALP also had hopes for Chisholm, but late on Saturday night it had swung back to "in doubt".

So for Labor, Victoria was not the bloodbath of the north, but it still wasn't pretty.

Of the five Tasmanian seats, Labor held four going into this election.

But the Liberal Party knew it could gain ground there.

Clearly in their sights was Braddon.

In the end, it was a boost for minor party candidates — particularly One Nation — and a significant plunge in Labor primary votes that handed the seat to Justine Keay's Liberal challenger Gavin Pearce.

Labor was able to retain the central seat of Lyons — likely benefitting from the disendorsement of the Liberal candidate — and Franklin, which takes in part of Hobart.

But the national shift was evident in the fight over Bass.

The Labor MP Ross Hart could not hold onto his seat, making the Apple Isle now equally blue and red, with one independent.

In NSW, off the back of a strong Coalition state election win, each side of politics took a seat off the other.

They paid for that in Gilmore, where the Prime Minister had gone over the heads of local officials to install Warren Mundine — an ex-Labor Party national president — as the party's candidate.

Labor's Fiona Phillips was able to take advantage of the discontent to win the seat.

But in seats like Lindsay, on Sydney's western edge, the results were better for the Liberals.

With sitting Labor MP Emma Husar not recontesting following a staffing scandal, the Coalition saw an opportunity — and took it.

The biggest news out of New South Wales on the night — and a result against the grain of the election — was former PM Tony Abbott's loss in Warringah, a seat he held since 1994. Mr Abbott was pushed out by independent Zali Steggall, who campaigned heavily on a platform of climate change action.

And he was one of the first to acknowledge his party was on the march: "The good news is that there's every chance the Liberal National Coalition has won this election," he told the crowd in his concession speech.

As the results unfolded, Labor stalwarts turned their eyes to the west in the hope that it would buck the trend and deliver salvation, but it wasn't to be — essentially returning a status quo.

The Government's Minister for Aged Care and Indigenous Health, Ken Wyatt, came into this election holding Hasluck for the Liberals by a margin of 2.1 per cent.

He managed to boost that majority on Saturday.

The same goes for Pearce, Attorney-General Christian Porter's seat.

Mr Porter is considered a rising star in the Coalition ministry.

The two-party-preferred gap has gotten progressively smaller in Pearce over the past few years, leaving him with a margin of just 3.6 per cent coming into election day.

On Saturday, he managed to increase that, soundly beating first-time Labor candidate Kim Travers.

Swan, taking in both affluent and working-class areas of eastern Perth, was solidly Labor territory for years when it was held by former party leader Kim Beazley.

More recently it has gone blue, with Steve Irons holding the seat by a margin of 3.6 per cent going into the 2019 election.

His chief challenger this time around was someone with a bit of family history in the race: Mr Beazley's daughter, Hannah Beazley.

But the name recognition for Ms Beazley was not enough to overcome the statewide — and nationwide — mood.

And so at the end of the night the Coalition stood on the cusp of electoral victory. With 74 seats it is still short of a majority, and so it may have to turn to independents like Helen Haines and Zali Steggall to secure a working majority in Parliament.

If it does get over the line and gain a majority in its own right, the Coalition finds itself in much the same position it did after 2016 — with all the risks to unity that a slender majority carries.
Former Prime Minister Tony Abbott loses his seat to independent candidate and former Olympian Zali Steggall.